bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Chemical and Biological Agent Incident Response and Decision Process for Civilian and Public Sector Facilities
Authors: Raber Ellen , Hirabayashi Joy M. , Mancieri Saverio P. , Jin Alfred L. , Folks Karen J. , Carlsen Tina M. , Estacio Pete
Published: March 2003

In the event of a terrorist attack or catastrophic release involving potential chemical and/or biological warfare agents, decisionmakers will need to make timely and informed choices about whether, or how, to respond. The objective of this article is to provide a decision framework to specify initial and follow‐up actions, including possible decontamination, and to address long‐term health and environmental issues. This decision framework consists of four phases, beginning with the identification of an incident and ending with verification that cleanup and remediation criteria have been met. The flowchart takes into account both differences and similarities among potential agents or toxins at key points in the decision‐making process. Risk evaluation and communication of information to the public must be done throughout the process to ensure a successful effort.
On the Risk of Mortality to Primates Exposed to Anthrax Spores
Authors: Haas Charles N.
Published: March 2003

Current events have heightened the importance of understanding the risks from inhalation exposure to small numbers of spores of Bacillus anthracis. Previously reported data sets have not been fully assessed using current understanding of microbial dose response. This article presents an assessment of the reported primate dose‐response data. At low doses, the risk to large populations of low doses of inhaled spores (e.g., <100) is not insignificant.
Intergenerational and International Discounting
Authors: Schelling Thomas C.
Published: March 2003

A discount rate for the consumption of future generations is typically composed of two parts. One is a “pure” time preference for immediate over postponed consumption, the other a declining marginal utility as consumption increases. The costs of greenhouse abatement, however, for at least the first 50 years, will be borne by the developed countries; the benefits will accrue to the presently undeveloped. Pure time preference always relates to one's own consumption; it has no relevance here. Consumption transfers over time will be from richer to poorer, from lower to higher marginal utility. It is a foreign aid program and it ought to have to compete with more direct foreign aid, which can benefit the very poor rather than their much‐better‐off descendants.
Likelihood Contour Method for the Calculation of Asymptotic Upper Confidence Limits on the Risk Function for Quantitative Responses
Authors: Banga Senin , Patil Ganapati P. , Taillie Charles
Published: March 2003

This article develops a computationally and analytically convenient form of the profile likelihood method for obtaining one‐sided confidence limits on scalar‐valued functions ϕ = ϕ(ψ) of the parameters ψ in a multiparameter statistical model. We refer to this formulation as the likelihood contour method (LCM). In general, the LCM procedure requires iterative solution of a system of nonlinear equations, and good starting values are critical because the equations have at least two solutions corresponding to the upper and lower confidence limits. We replace the LCM equations by the lowest order terms in their asymptotic expansions. The resulting equations can be solved explicitly and have exactly two solutions that are used as starting values for obtaining the respective confidence limits from the LCM equations.

This article also addresses the problem of obtaining upper confidence limits for the risk function in a dose‐response model in which responses are normally distributed. Because of normality, considerable analytic simplification is possible and solution of the LCM equations reduces to an easy one‐dimensional root‐finding problem. Simulation is used to study the small‐sample coverage of the resulting confidence limits.
Stochastic Simulation of Catastrophic Hail and Windstorm Indemnities in the Dutch Greenhouse Sector
Authors: Van Asseldonk M. A. P. M. , Meuwissen M. P. M. , Huirne R. B. M.
Published: March 2003

A risk analysis was performed to examine the effect of changes in the Dutch greenhouse sector on the probability of occurrence and magnitude of indemnities induced by catastrophic natural hazards. Analyzed historical indemnities, which included direct and consequential losses resulting from severe hail and windstorms, were used as input in a stochastic simulation model. Applications of the stochastic simulation model were illustrated under alternative risk conditions. A comparison was made between the current structure of greenhouse production and the expected structure in the next decade that differs with respect to the spatial distribution and average size.
A Case Study Comparing Static and Spatially Explicit Ecological Exposure Analysis Methods
Authors: Hope Bruce K.
Published: March 2003

Exposure to chemical contaminants must be estimated when performing ecological risk assessments. A previous article proposed a habitat area and quality conditioned population exposure estimator, E[HQ]P, and described an individual‐based, random walk, Monte Carlo model (SE3M) to facilitate calculation of E[HQ]P. In this article, E[HQ]P was compared with exposure estimates from a baseline risk assessment that evaluated mink and great blue heron exposure to fluoride at a federal Superfund site. Calculation of E[HQ]P took into consideration a receptor’s forage area, movement behavior, population size, and the areal extent and quality of suitable habitat. The baseline assessment used four methods that did (total and unit Tier 2) and did not (total and unit Tier 1) consider habitat area or quality; where “total” included all exposure units on site and “unit” only a given exposure unit. Total Tier 1 estimates were consistently higher than E[HQ]P (e.g., 169.1 mg/kg·d versus 21.6 mg/kg·d). Risk managers using total Tier 1 results for decision making would be unlikely to underestimate exposure; however, implementability of correspondingly lower remedial objectives could be challenging. Unit Tier 1 estimates were higher (e.g., 96.5 mg/kg·d versus 61.6 mg/kg·d) or lower (e.g., 3.5 mg/kg·d versus 51.1 mg/kg·d) than E[HQ]P depending on variations in landscape features. Total Tier 2 and E[HQ]P estimates were similar (e.g., 20.7 mg/kg·d versus 21.6 mg/kg·d) when an ecologically questionable average exposure was assumed. Unit Tier 2 estimates were consistently well below E[HQ]P (e.g., 17.8 mg/kg·d versus 61.6 mg/kg·d) when an average exposure was not assumed. Risk managers using unit Tier 1 or 2 results could be basing their decisions on potentially large underestimates of exposure. By forgoing average exposure assumptions, and explicitly addressing landscape heterogeneity, SE3M appears capable of yielding exposure estimates that are not as potentially misleading to risk managers as those produced with traditional averaging methods.
An Independent Central Bank and an Independent Monetary Policy: The Role of the Government Budget—The Case of Poland 1924–26
Authors: Makinen Gail E.
Published: March 2003

Poland's 1924 stabilization plan created, as measured by contemporary criteria, an independent central bank. The stabilization's success was undermined by a fiscal disequilibrium when a capital levy failed to raise revenue. The Polish government covered the revenue shortfall by exploiting the right of the state to issue subsidiary coins. Although central bank independence was not compromised, Poland did not have an independent monetary policy. When the fiscal disequilibrium was corrected in 1926, the central bank gained complete control over monetary policy. Thus, a balanced budget may be more important to achieving price stability than arrangements to foster central bank independence.
The Implications of GASB Statement No. 34 for Public Budgeting
Authors: Chan James L.
Published: March 2003

This paper discusses a variety of audit issues related to the implementation of GASB Statement No. 34. Ten specific audit issues are addressed. Each issue is defined and discussed, and the relevant professional literature is reviewed. The results of interviews of four experienced auditors of governments are presented with respect to these issues. These auditors identified several additional issues related to the implementation of Statement No. 34. The focus is on gaining insight from the concerns of auditor professionals to assist academics by identifying topics that warrant future research.
Ambivalences about Nature and Naturalism
Authors: Jackson Timothy P.
Published: March 2003

As a die‐hard supernaturalist, someone “at two with nature” (Woody Allen) who would be at one with God, the author has mixed feelings about Theodore Nunez's defense of “naturalism.” Unlike neopragmatists, the author is not troubled by Nunez's general realism about value; he takes exception not to Nunez's theoretical account of truth, but to his specific axiology. He does not share Nunez's confidence that “projective nature” can provide reliable moral inspiration, suggesting instead that such inspiration can arise only from trust in the holiness of God.
Grace as Pardon and Power: Pictures of the Christian Life in Luther, Calvin, and Barth
Authors: Couenhoven Jesse
Published: March 2003

Christians have long understood grace both as a declaration of acceptance and as a power that transforms. This article illumines two theses while investigating the relationship between these understandings of grace in Luther, Calvin, and Barth's development of the law/gospel dialectic and the doctrines of justification and sanctification. First, though each theologian makes use of both understandings of grace, each also tends to emphasize one over the other. The unity and tension within and between these perspectives help to show that while both pictures are of the greatest importance for each other and cannot be separated, they also exist in tension, as long as they are worked out in the lives of sinners. Second, the author claims that the positions of Luther and Barth are more alike than is generally recognized.
The Invention of Modern Moral Philosophy A Review of The Invention of Autonomy by J. B. Schneewind
Authors: Herdt Jennifer A.
Published: March 2003

This review essay assesses the significance of J. B. Schneewind's The Invention of Autonomy for the history of moral thought in general and for religious ethics in particular. The essay offers an overview of Schneewind's complex argument before critically discussing his four central themes: the primacy of Immanuel Kant, the fundamentality of conflict, the insufficiency of virtue, and community with God. Whereas Schneewind argues that an impasse between modern natural law and perfectionist ethics revealed irresolvable tensions withing Christian ethics and thus encouraged the emergence of secular moral thought, this author suggests that these tensions were specific to a voluntarist strand of Christian moral thought form which even antivoluntarists of the modern period were unable to break free.
Stand Reconstructed: Contingent Closure and Institutional Change
Authors: Böröcz József
Published: March 2003

The process is traced whereby crucially important, multiple denotations of classical sociology's key notion referring to social position—the Weberian German concept of Stand—have been stripped to create a simplified and inaccurate representation of social inequalities. Some historical material from central Europe is surveyed, with a brief look at Japan, to demonstrate validity problems created by blanket application of the culturally specific, streamlined notions of status/class. As an alternative, a notion of contingent social closure argues that relaxing the modernizationist assumptions of a single transition from estate to status/class increases the comparative-historical sensitivity of research on social structure, inequality, and stratification. A dynamic reading of Polányi suggests a reconceptualization of institutions as the “raw material” of social change. This might help to avoid the outdated contrast of the “West” vs. its “Others.”
The Authority of the Holy Revisited: Habermas, Religion, and Emancipatory Possibilities
Authors: Dillon Michele
Published: March 2003

This article argues that Jürgen Habermas's view of religion as anathema to rational critical discourse reflects his misunderstanding that religion comprises a monolithic and immutable body of dogma that is closed to reason. Illustrative data from Catholic history and theology and empirical data gathered from contemporary American Catholics are used to show the weaknesses in Habermas's negation of the possibility of a self-critical religious discourse. Specifically, I highlight the doctrinal differentiation within Catholicism, its longstanding theological emphasis on the coupling of faith and reason, institutional reflexivity, and the doctrinally reflexive reasoning that contemporary Catholics use in negotiating what might appear as “contradictory” identities (e.g., being gay or lesbian and Catholic). Although the data presented take issue with Habermas's disavowal of religion, the article shows that the practical relevance of doctrinal reasoning at both the institutional and the individual level vindicate Habermas's faith in the emancipatory potential of reasoned argumentation to advance participative equality.
Applications of Theories of Group Processes
Authors: Webster Murray , Whitmeyer Joseph M.
Published: March 2003

Theories of group processes have been and are being applied usefully to natural situations. We review a selection of these theories and examine different types of applications and interventions to which they have led. We then offer a typology of application, five “stages” with examples. As theoretical application proceeds, issues of complexity, rules of correspondence, and competing social interests increase the difficulty of that work, yet the benefits are considerable for theoretical development.
Gender and the Public Sphere: Alternative Forms of Integration in Nineteenth-Century America
Authors: Rabinovitch Eyal
Published: March 2003

This paper intends to evaluate two competing models of multicultural integration in stratified societies: the “multiple publics” model of Nancy Fraser and the “fragmented public sphere” model of Jeffrey Alexander. Fraser and Alexander disagree on whether or not claims to a general “common good” or “common humanity” are democratically legitimate in light of systemic inequality. Fraser rejects the idea that cultural integration can be democratic in conditions of social inequality, while Alexander accepts it and tries to explain how it may be realized. In order to address this debate, I analyze the cultural foundations of the female-led, maternally themed social movements of nineteenth-century America. The language of these movements supports Alexander's position over Fraser's, though it also suggests that Alexander is mistaken in the specifics of his cultural theory of a general and democratic “common good.” While Alexander's model of integration is structured uniquely by what he and Philip Smith have called “the discourse of civil society,” the evidence suggests a distinctly alternative, equally democratic code at play in this case, which I have labeled a discourse of affection and compassion.
Integrated AEC Information Services Using Object Methods and a Central Project Model
Authors: Sacks Rafael
Published: March 2003

A new paradigm is presented in which designers, contractors, and suppliers process project information, which is stored in a central project model, by using application routines provided on–line as object–oriented methods instead of stand–alone applications. Commercial project management Web site companies can provide the service through application methods tightly coupled with a project model. The development and use of such “intelligent” object sets is exemplified by the use of intelligent parametric templates (IPT) in three sample applications: for RC slab design, formwork design, and labor monitoring. The research requirements relating to the proposed paradigm are discussed, in light of the experience gained in development of the IPTs. The paradigm offers a technical and economic alternative to the development of industry–wide building project models.
A Multimedia Construction Delay Management System
Authors: Abudayyeh Osama Y.
Published: March 2003

The need for acquiring, storing, processing, and presenting quality data in a timely manner in support of construction project management is well recognized. Therefore, a properly developed information system that manages the required data is crucial to the success of project management. However, one type of useful data and information, namely, multimedia (pictures, videos, and audio), has not been appropriately acquired and/or managed in construction. Researchers are just beginning to explore and evaluate the benefits of multimedia information in construction applications. This paper discusses some of the potential applications of multimedia in construction and describes the implementation of a prototype multimedia information system for construction delay management. The system tracks a variety of data types related to delays, including pictures, videos, and audio.
A Fuzzy Methodology for Evaluation of the Liquefaction Potential
Authors: Chen J. W. , Chen C. Y.
Published: March 2003

A methodolgy is presented in this paper in which geotechnical parameter uncertainty is modeled by fuzzy numbers and allowed to propagate in a deterministic model. Emphasis in this paper is placed on the liquefaction potential evaluation considering parameter uncertainty.

Three deterministic models are used for liquefaction potential evaluation. For each of these models, uncertainty in soil parameters is modeled by fuzzy numbers, and liquefaction potential is analyzed. Study of historical cases using the presented methodology is conducted. Results of these case studies clearly demonstrate that uncertainty can easily be incorporated and handled in a routine liquefaction evaluation.
A User‐Session‐Based Computerized System for Highway Management
Authors: Ravirala V. , Grivas D. A. , Arminio S. J. , Jr.
Published: March 2003

The design and implementation of a user‐session based computerized system for highway management is presented. The functionality required to accomplish concomitant methodologic tasks is implemented as computer sessions. Described are the analytical methods, algorithms, and user sessions involved in the goal‐oriented optimization process that is used to analyze highway program scenarios. The computerized system is being developed in a phased manner to provide early products that assist the New York State Thruway Authority's operations. The system continues to evolve with user feedback and technology advancement. In the current phase, the system consists of graphic user interfaces and robust algorithms that are implemented efficiently using modeling and spreadsheet tools. The evolving computerized system has been used to conduct case studies, provide tabular and graphic summaries of specific highway program scenarios, and obtain feedback for future enhancements. It is concluded that the user‐session‐based design has provided an efficient approach to integrate the analysis methods and provide a user‐friendly computerized system for highway program development.
Computer‐Aided Project Duration Forecasting Subjected to the Impact of Rain
Authors: Guo S.‐J.
Published: March 2003

Rain is a significant climate factor for project duration control. This study presents an analytical model for project duration forecasting subjected to the impact of rain. Also developed herein is the concept of “level of rain” to analyze the direct and subsequent productivity losess based on various amounts of precipitation. Based on the analytical model, a computer‐aided project duration forecasting system subjected to the impact of rain is developed. The proposed system incorporates historical precipitation records, expert experiences, and fuzzy‐set techniques in duration forecasting. Moreover, the proposed system's effectiveness is demonstrated by a highway construction project. The system proposed herein can provide more realistic duration forecasting for project managers while considering the impact of rain.
Neural Network‐Based Long‐Term Hydropower Forecasting System
Authors: Coulibaly Paulin , Anctil François , Bobée Bernard
Published: March 2003

Artificial neural networks are alternatives to stochastic models even if the optimization of their architectures remains a tricky problem. Two different approaches in long‐term forecasting of potential energy inflows using a feedforward neural network (FNN) and a recurrent neural network (RNN) are proposed. The problem of overfitting, particularly critical for limited hydrologic data records, is addressed using a new approach entitled optimal weight estimate procedure (OWEP). The efficiency of the two models using OWEP is assessed through multistep forecasts. The experiment results show that, in general, OWEP improves the models' performance and significantly reduces the training time on the order of 60 percent. The RNN outperforms the FNN but costs about a factor of 2 longer in training time. Furthermore, the neural network‐based models provide more accurate forecasts than traditional stochastic models. Overall, the RNN appears to be the best suited for potential energy inflows forecasting and therefore for hydropower systems management and planning.
A Semivirtual Watershed Model by Neural Networks
Authors: Guo James C. Y.
Published: March 2003

A semivirtual watershed model is presented in this study. This model places the design rainfall distribution on the input layer and the predicted runoff hydrograph on the output layer. The optimization scheme developed in this study can train the model to establish a set of weights under the guidance of the kinematic wave theory. The weights are time‐dependent variables by which rainfall signals can be converted to runoff distributions by weighting procedures only. With the consideration of time dependence, the computational efficiency of virtual watershed models is greatly enhanced by eliminating unnecessary visitations between layers. The weighting procedure used in the semivirtual watershed model expands the rational method from peak runoff predictions to complete hydrograph predictions under continuous and nonuniform rainfall events.
Deployable Truss Operation by ETS‐VII Robot Arm Using Force Accommodation Control
Authors: Nohmi Masahiro , Matsumoto Kohtaro , Ueno Hiroshi , Yoshida Tetsuji
Published: March 2003

An experiment for teleoperating a truss structure has been performed as part of a space robotics mission on Engineering Test Satellite No. 7 (ETS‐VII). This article reports the results from truss experiments conducted by means of the ETS‐VII robot arm using force accommodation control, which is a specific control law developed for the ETS‐VII robot arm. With this control function, the robot arm moves toward the point where the external force becomes the command value, which is sent from the ground. This control technique is useful especially in the case of teleoperation with time delay, since excessive force and torque can be avoided, and in addition, no a priori trajectory information is required. However, the robot arm cannot attain the desired configuration for itself. These characteristics can be used for deployable and assembly truss operation, making full use of merits and avoiding demerits. The effectiveness is confirmed through an ETS‐VII onboard experiment.
Advanced Analysis of Steel Frames Using Parallel Processing and Vectorization
Authors: Foley C. M.
Published: March 2003

Advanced methods of analysis have shown promise in providing economical building structures through accurate evaluation of inelastic structural response. One method of advanced analysis is the plastic zone (distributed plasticity) method. Plastic zone analysis often has been deemed impractical due to computational expense. The purpose of this article is to illustrate applications of plastic zone analysis on large steel frames using advanced computational methods. To this end, a plastic zone analysis algorithm capable of using parallel processing and vector computation is discussed. Applicable measures for evaluating program speedup and efficiency on a Cray Y‐MP C90 multiprocessor supercomputer are described. Program performance (speedup and efficiency) for parallel and vector processing is evaluated. Nonlinear response including postcritical branches of three large‐scale fully restrained and partially restrained steel frameworks is computed using the proposed method. The results of the study indicate that advanced analysis of practical steel frames can be accomplished using plastic zone analysis methods and alternate computational strategies.
Permits, Starts, and Completions: Structural Relationships Versus Real Options
Authors: Somerville C. Tsuriel
Published: March 2003

Real estate development from raw land to completed structures is a multistage process. Given the current view of development as the exercise of a real option, the question arises whether development should be modeled as a compound option. This paper tests the validity of the compound option characterization by determining whether builders start units for which they have permits and then complete units started consistent with the predictions of the real options model. To do so, I first identify a reduced form relationship between permits and starts and then between starts and completions. The parameters of this relationship indicate how well permits proxy for starts and starts for completions. Then, I determine whether controlling for this structural relationship, new information, and uncertainty in returns affect permit exercise and completion rates, as in the exercise of real options. I find that current and previous quarter permits forecast current single‐family starts, while multifamily starts require more quarterly lags of permits. More than one and two year’s worth of lagged starts numbers are needed to estimate current quarter completions for single‐ and multifamilys buildings, respectively. The principal result is that once building permits have been obtained, the development process proceeds to completion. While there is no evidence that completion is the exercise of an option embedded in a start, some aspects of permits are consistent with builders treating them as an option for starts. However, even if they do, given permits obtained, it takes large changes in market conditions to affect small changes in starts.
A Note on Identification of Discrimination in Mortgage Lending
Authors: LaCour‐Little Michael
Published: March 2003

This paper shows how reduced form estimates of discrimination in mortgage lending may be biased by race differences in loan demand. The result, which follows formally from the model of the mortgage lending process developed in the seminal paper by Maddala and Trost (1982), has important implications for the regulation of financial institutions. It also reinforces findings of Rachlis and Yezer (1993) and Yezer, Phillips and Trost (1994). A review of recent empirical evidence on race differences in loan demand suggests that this factor may help explain mortgage loan application differentials.
Determinants of Multifamily Mortgage Default
Authors: Archer Wayne R. , Elmer Peter J. , Harrison David M. , Ling David C.
Published: March 2003

Option–based models of mortgage default posit that the central measure of default risk is the loan–to–value (LTV) ratio. We argue, however, that an unrecognized problem with extending the basic option model to existing multifamily and commercial mortgages is that key variables in the option model are endogenous to the loan origination and property sale process. This endogeneity implies, among other things, that no empirical relationship may be observed between default and LTV. Since lenders may require lower LTVs in order to mitigate risk, mortgages with low and moderate LTVs may be as likely to default as those with high LTVs. Mindful of this risk endogeneity and its empirical implications, we examine the default experience of 495 fixed–rate multifamily mortgage loans securitized by the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) during the period 1991–1996. The extensive nature of the data supports multivariate analysis of default incidence in a number of respects not possible in previous studies. Consistent with our expectations, we find that LTV evidences no relationship to default incidence, while the strongest predictors of default are property characteristics, including three–digit ZIP code location and initial cash flow as reflected in the debt coverage ratio. The latter results are particularly interesting in that they dominated the influence of postorigination changes in the local economy.
Fiscal Policy when Individuals Differ with Regard to Altruism and Labor Supply
Authors: Michel Philippe , Pestieau Pierre
Published: March 2003

This paper studies the incidence of tax‐transfer policy in a growth model wherein individuals differ according to their level of intergenerational altruism and have an endogenous labor supply. The main result is that public debt is neutral at the macro level but redistributes resources from nonaltruists to altruists. Capital income taxation can hurt the nonaltruists who do not have any wealth more than it hurts the altruists who own all of it. Whether or not the altruists supply a positive amount of labor makes a big difference as to the incidence of alternative tax transfer policies.
The Effect of Underclass Social Isolation on Schooling Choice
Authors: Streufert Peter
Published: March 2003

This paper models underclass social isolation as the loss of high‐income role models and then studies the plausible conjecture that this isolation depresses the level of schooling chosen by underclass youth. It is found that although this conjecture stands in roughly calibrated simulations, it is not a theoretical necessity. The paper also shows that the introduction of more representative role models during university can polarize underclass youth and that income support programs depress schooling choice through a distinct and reinforcing channel.
Revenge, Tax Informing, and the Optimal Bounty
Authors: Yaniv Gideon
Published: March 2003

A common belief is that the IRS pays tax informants 10% of whatever their tips produce in revenue. Actually, the bounty rate is even lower, averaging, in recent years, less than 2% of the amount of taxes and fines recovered. Why is it that the IRS is so tightfisted in rewarding informants who help recover taxes that otherwise would not have been recovered? The present paper approaches this question from an economic perspective, introducing a simple model of the informing decision, the implications of which are incorporated into the tax administration's problem of selecting a bounty rate, as well as a probability of convicting informed‐upon evaders, that maximize its expected net revenues from tax informing. The paper shows that a revenue‐maximizing tax administration would set its bounty rate lower and its prosecution efforts higher, the stronger, at the margin, informants' desire to get revenge on former parties with whom they have quarreled. While the IRS may be guided by ethical and moral considerations in designing its bounty scheme, it nevertheless behaves as if it were cynically exploiting informants' emotional drives, cutting down on their fair share in the recovered amounts to help finance its efforts in prosecuting informed‐upon evaders.
The Loss of the Certainty Effect
Authors: Stewart Richard E. , Stewart Barbara D.
Published: March 2003

Recent changes in the commercial property‐liability insurance business have made it unlikely that large claims will be paid promptly and willingly. The situation is not limited to asbestos, pollution, and medical product liability, though certainly evident there. The authors examine the situation from three economic and psychological perspectives—option theory, asymmetric information theory, and prospect theory. All three indicate that if insurance were seen by customers as less than fully certain and reliable, the resulting discounting of its value—and hence buyers' willingness to pay for it—would be much deeper than one would expect. Although competitive and legal steps could be taken to head off such a disaster, none of them is likely.
Long‐Term Care Insurance Purchase Patterns
Authors: Doerpinghaus Helen I. , Gustavson Sandra G.
Published: March 2003

Given the aging population and high cost of long‐term care, many Americans are concerned about financing long‐term care services. Despite this concern, private long‐term care insurance policy sales have experienced slow growth. On average only about 7 percent of the population aged 65 and older has long‐term care insurance, but this percentage varies greatly across the states. In this study we test hypothesized relationships between purchase of long‐term care insurance and various explanatory factors. We provide evidence that state Medicaid nursing home expenditure levels and the relative sizes of the elderly population and the nursing home population are significant explanatory factors of purchase rates. We find no evidence that public–private partnership regulation, the quality of available facilities, or agent marketing controls affect purchase. Findings of the study are useful to insurers, legislators, regulators, and others involved in the public policy debate about financing long‐term care.
Incorporating Enterprise Risk Management Into the Curriculum: The Delta Air Lines Case Study
Authors: Nyce Charles
Published: March 2003

This article describes a group project that was designed and implemented in an MBA‐level corporate risk management class. The primary objective of this project is to integrate the concepts of enterprise risk management into the graduate‐level risk management and insurance curriculum. This project combines both traditional and innovative risk management techniques into one semester‐long group case study. The Delta Air Lines case study was divided into three segments to focus on three distinct objectives. The first component, identification of Delta's horizon risks, is designed to spur creative thinking among the groups. The second component, analysis of workers' compensation claims, is a very traditional risk management exercise in risk evaluation designed to utilize traditional statistical analysis techniques (specifically, trending). The third component is estimating both total loss distributions and layers of loss due to airline crashes for potential capital market risk financing alternatives. This component involves more innovative financial risk management techniques (i.e., distribution fitting and simulation analysis). The objective is to familiarize students with the current techniques being used to evaluate risks that are currently (or potentially) being securitized in the capital markets.
A Rose by Any Other Name? From ‘Christian Doctrine’ to ‘Systematic Theology’
Authors: Gunton Colin
Published: March 2003

Christian thought is uniquely resistant to systematization, yet over the centuries has produced remarkable systematic accounts of Christian truth, including those of the patristic and medieval eras before Christian theology became systematically self‐conscious in modernity. The more recent fate of the notion of system is traced in Schleiermacher, Hegel and Kierkegaard, and an argument advanced that systematic theology is the expression of personal skill learned in community, and its unity and integrity are aesthetic and moral as much as rationalistic.
Kant’s Two Perspectives on the Theological Task
Authors: Firestone Chris L.
Published: March 2003

Proponents of ‘the poetic hypothesis» in Kant interpretation assume that the third Critique provides the necessary and sufficient conditions for understanding the nature of all theological discourse. This article opens with the assumption – taken from one of Kant’s last works – that philosophy and theology must always remain in conflict. Then, by way of an abductive comparison of Gordon Kaufman and Adina Davidovich, I demonstrate that the poetic hypothesis leads to religious compromises that contradict this assumption. To conclude, I argue for an understanding of the motif of holism that is better able to uphold Kant’s notion of conflict.
Eros and Agape in Karl Barth’s Church Dogmatics
Authors: Clough David
Published: March 2003

This analysis of agape and eros in the Church Dogmatics argues that although there are real difficulties with Barth’s development of these concepts in the Dogmatics, a careful reading of the material suggests that these difficulties are not so serious as may first appear and may be overcome. This interpretative work also facilitates a dialogue between Barth and two contemporary ethicists working on the concept of Christian love, a dialogue in which Barth proves to be a worthy and rewarding partner.
Response to Mara Sidoli
Authors: Zilbach Joan J.
Published: March 2003

My paper is a response to the clinical material in Mara Sidoli's paper about two patients who in the course of their treatment create an important symbol – a roaring symbol. In my response I construct a Freudian lion from the material of the first patient, and a Jungian lion from the second one. In both instances the vicissitudes of aggression as discussed are extracted from the therapeutic process.
The case of Marcello: transference and the unfolding of the analytical relationship
Authors: Conti Mazzei Patricia
Published: March 2003

The analytical process of a male patient is herein described, the main focus being on the phase when the transference develops and transference projections are modified, leading to a transformation of the personality, which was previously characterized by severe obsessional defences. The specific aim of the discussion is to evaluate when and what to interpret, in relation to the importance of the transferential patterns and with regard to the role of the analyst as a container.
Alchemy in the image of the analyst
Authors: Allain‐Dupré Brigitte
Published: March 2003

The author aims to demonstrate the activation in the transference relationship of a figure representing ‘sameness’ in a number of forms. In the first clinical vignette, she shows how a child projects his own difficulty symmetrically on to the analyst, with the aim of creating the conjunction of opposites which the psyche needs for its growth.

During the archetypal reworking which adolescence provides we again find this figure of ‘sameness’ in the foreground, in the phase of homosexual object choice. A second clinical vignette shows how this figure of ‘sameness’ can be represented in the fantasy or the desire of becoming an analyst.

The author puts forward the hypothesis that this fantasy represents an imago whose characteristics include being a tool for linking feeling and thinking in the inner world; it is constituted in the entre deux, the space between self and other, and, like Winnicott's transitional object, it facilitates the capacity to symbolize. Being ‘off centre’ with regard to infantile positions in relation to the parental imagos, this imago offers a vantage point for ‘evaluation’ (sich auseinandersetzen) and ‘consideration‘ (betrachten). Finally this imago is transistory, because its destiny is to be deconstructed (as shown in the third clinical vignette which concerns an adult patient), in order to be integrated through the work of analysis.
How rejection of essences expresses despair
Authors: Tougas Cecile T.
Published: March 2003

The Self and the ego in Jung's psychology are an instance of what Edmund Husserl called a ‘double intentionality’: one tending toward meaning is distinct from another tending toward meaning, yet they are reciprocally inseparable from each other. As perception in a present moment and memory of a past are impossible without each other, so an intending of ego and that of Self are impossible without each other. Accompanying the ego (mostly in the background) during each moment of time is a tending towards a particular Idea or essence. This reciprocity is expressed in a unique way over a lifetime and is like the relation of mother and child, and so it is important for all of us born of women to retain a sense of essences and the fullness of Self. ‘Constructivism’, however, is a current belief held by some feminists, and it influences both theorizing and practice in analytical psychology. It involves a rejection of essences, a revision of Jung's Idea of Self, and an attempt to conduct analysis without reference to an intentional subjective Self. Such constructivist revision expresses a despair both about essences as Ideas and about Self as intentional and subjective. It is despair over Self in a Kierkegaardian sense.
Is analytical psychology a religion? In statu nascendi
Authors: Shamdasani Sonu
Published: March 2003

This paper elucidates and discusses Jung's conceptions of the relation between psychology, psychotherapy and religion.
Is transference the ‘total situation’?
Authors: Astor James
Published: March 2003

This paper examines through the detailed explication of analytic material the author's experience of a psychoanalytic and a Jungian way of understanding the interactions between him and his patient. This comparative approach considers where the differences lie with respect to timing and content of interpretations and where the differences are essentially tactical rather than theoretical.
Rebirth fantasy and the psychoanalytic process
Authors: Sebek Michael
Published: March 2003

In this paper, Jungian and Freudian perspectives on the fantasy of rebirth are explored and a brief review of the literature on the theme is used to show how that the rebirth fantasy seems to be a universal fantasy in the human mind, connected with the experience of both destruction and creation. In the psychoanalytic process the rebirth fantasy is connected with initial hopes for a better life, but is also a vehicle for creating the analytic pair and for separating from the ‘totalitarian object’.

An account of clinical work with a patient is given to illustrate the mutual and parallel process of rebirth in both the patient and the therapist. For the patient, the therapy was experienced as an awakening or a birth. The therapist was initially doubtful about the patient’s capacity to engage in the analytic process but his involvement and interest were ‘born’ during the early sessions, enabling the patient to rely on him to lead her out of the claustrophobic power of the totalitarian object.
Finding the space between east and west: the emotional impact of teaching in St Petersburg
Authors: Crowther Catherine , Wiener Jan
Published: March 2003

The paper describes our experience of teaching analytical psychology to a group of graduates of the East European Institute of Psychoanalysis in St Petersburg, our developing partnership as we struggled to teach and learn, each with our own assumptions, preconceptions and projections about the other, and the emotional impact of our radically different social, intellectual and political histories. We had to be affected to become effective. It draws on contemporary Jungian ideas to unpack the interpersonal dynamics involved when there are culturally different styles of learning, which created a complicated transference/countertransference matrix.

We believe we have by now witnessed a process of individuation among our students and at the same time they too have witnessed some change and growth in us.
The Theory of Exchange Rate Target Zones
Authors: Kempa Bernd , Nelles Michael
Published: March 2003

The theory of exchange rate target zones focuses on the role of exchange rate expectations in determining exchange rate behaviour and interest rate differentials in currency bands. This paper analyses earlier models of the target zone research programme as well as more recent developments including endogenous realignment expectations, price rigidities and alternative monetary feedback rules by means of a unified approach. Target zones may be the cause of stabilizing or destabilizing exchange rate expectations, the determinants of which crucially depend on the within‐band central bank policy as well as the credibility of the central banks’ commitment to defend the target zone. The paper closes with a discussion of the relative merits of implementing a target zone and some suggestions for further research.
Poverty Orderings
Authors: Zheng Buhong
Published: March 2003

This paper reviews the literature of partial poverty orderings. Partial poverty orderings require unanimous poverty rankings for a class of poverty measures or a set of poverty lines. The need to consider multiple poverty measures and multiple poverty lines arises inevitably from the arbitrariness inherent in poverty comparisons. In the paper, we first survey the ordering conditions of various individual poverty measures for a range of poverty lines; for some measures necessary and sufficient conditions are identified while for others only some easily verifiable sufficient conditions are established. These ordering conditions are shown to have a close link with the stochastic dominance relations which are based on the comparisons of cumulative distribution functions. We then survey the ordering conditions for various classes of poverty measures with a single or a set of poverty lines; in all cases necessary and sufficient conditions are established. These conditions again rely on the stochastic dominance relations or their transformations. We also extend the relationship between poverty orderings and stochastic dominance to higher orders and explore the possibility and the conditions of increasing the power of poverty orderings beyond the second degree dominance condition.
The process of enabling change: a study of therapist interventions in family therapy
Authors: Burck Charlotte , Frosh Stephen , Strickland‐Clark Lisa , Morgan Kevin
Published: March 2003

We describe the application of discursive analysis to the task of researching family therapy process. Through the analysis of a central theme in two family therapy treatments, we found that individual family members move to using a wider range of discourses on the central theme by the end of therapy. Using the example of one family's therapy sessions, we examine how the therapist contributes to the new meanings and views that emerge, and present our analysis of the therapists' interventions in relation to the ‘production’ of these alternative meanings. It is argued that discourse analysis can fruitfully be applied to family therapy process research and could contribute to theoretical concepts of change and therapeutic competence.
Daughters' dilemma: grief resolution in girls whose widowed fathers remarry early
Authors: Riches Gordon , Dawson Pam
Published: March 2003

This paper explores how a widower's early remarriage might complicate his bereaved daughter's grief resolution. In some families the emotional and domestic responsibilities of the deceased mother may be shouldered by an elder daughter on behalf of the surviving males in the family. Utilizing some of the propositions in recent ‘new models’ of grief, we explore the particular problems of ‘conversational remembering’ among daughters whose fathers remarry soon after their wives' deaths. Major difficulties may arise over conflicting perceptions of the role of the deceased mother within the new family system.