bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Modeling Stock Prices without Knowing How to Induce Stationarity
Authors: DeJong David N. , Whiteman Charles H.
Published: March 2009

Bayesian procedures for evaluating linear restrictions imposed by economic theory on dynamic econometric models are applied to a simple class of presentvalue models of stock prices. The procedures generate inferences that are not conditional on ancillary assumptions regarding the nature of the nonstationarity that characterizes the data. Inferences are influenced by prior views concerning nonstationarity, but these views are formally incorporated into the analysis, and alternative views are easily adopted. Viewed in light of relatively tight prior distributions that have proved useful in forecasting, the present-value model seems at odds with the data. Researchers less certain of the interaction between dividends and prices would find little reason to look beyond the present-value model.
Posterior Odds Testing for a Unit Root with Data-Based Model Selection
Authors: Phillips Peter C.B. , Ploberger Werner
Published: March 2009

The Kalman filter is used to derive updating equations for the Bayesian data density in discrete time linear regression models with stochastic regressors. The implied “Bayes model” has time varying parameters and conditionally heterogeneous error variances. A σ-finite Bayes model measure is given and used to produce a new-model-selection criterion (PIC) and objective posterior odds tests for sharp null hypotheses like the presence of a unit root. This extends earlier work by Phillips and Ploberger [18]. Autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models are considered, and a general test of trend-stationarity versus difference stationarity is developed in ARMA models that allow for automatic order selection of the stochastic regressors and the degree of the deterministic trend. The tests are completely consistent in that both type I and type II errors tend to zero as the sample size tends to infinity. Simulation results and an empirical application are reported. The simulations show that the PIC works very well and is generally superior to the Schwarz BIC criterion, even in stationary systems. Empirical application of our methods to the Nelson-Plosser [11] series show that three series (unemployment, industrial production, and the money stock) are level- or trend-stationary. The other eleven series are found to be stochastically nonstationary.
Bootstrapping Quantile Regression Estimators
Authors: Hahn Jinyong
Published: March 2009

The asymptotic variance matrix of the quantile regression estimator depends on the density of the error. For both deterministic and random regressors, the bootstrap distribution is shown to converge weakly to the limit distribution of the quantile regression estimator in probability. Thus, the confidence intervals constructed by the bootstrap percentile method have asymptotically correct coverage probabilities.
On the Existence of Moments of Ratios of Quadratic Forms
Authors: Roberts Leigh A.
Published: March 2009

We obtain simple and generally applicable conditions for the existence of mixed moments E([X′ AX]″/[X′BX]U) of the ratio of quadratic forms T = X′ AX/X′BX where A and B are n × n symmetric matrices and X is a random n-vector. Our principal theorem is easily stated when X has an elliptically symmetric distribution, which class includes the multivariate normal and t distributions, whether degenerate or not. The result applies to the ratio of multivariate quadratic polynomials and can be expected to remain valid in most situations in which X is subject to linear constraints.

If u ≤ v, the precise distribution of X, and in particular the existence of moments of X, is virtually irrelevant to the existence of the mixed moments of T; if u > v, a prerequisite for existence of the (u, v)th mixed moment is the existence of the 2(u − v)th moment of X When Xis not degenerate, the principal further requirement for the existence of the mixed moment is that B has rank exceeding 2v.
Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors
Authors: Cavanagh Christopher L. , Elliott Graham , Stock James H.
Published: March 2009

This paper examines regression tests of whether x forecasts y when the largest autoregressive root of the regressor is unknown. It is shown that previously proposed two-step procedures, with first stages that consistently classify x as I(1) or I(0), exhibit large size distortions when regressors have local-to-unit roots, because of asymptotic dependence on a nuisance parameter that cannot be estimated consistently. Several alternative procedures, based on Bonferroni and Scheffe methods, are therefore proposed and investigated. For many parameter values, the power loss from using these conservative tests is small.
Rethinking the Univariate Approach to Unit Root Testing: Using Covariates to Increase Power
Authors: Hansen Bruce E.
Published: March 2009

In the context of testing for a unit root in a univariate time series, the convention is to ignore information in related time series. This paper shows that this convention is quite costly, as large power gains can be achieved by including correlated stationary covariates in the regression equation.

The paper derives the asymptotic distribution of ordinary least-squares estimates of the largest autoregressive root and its t-statistic. The asymptotic distribution is not the conventional Dickey-Fuller distribution, but a convex combination of the Dickey-Fuller distribution and the standard normal, the mixture depending on the correlation between the equation error and the regression covariates. The local asymptotic power functions associated with these test statistics suggest enormous gains over the conventional unit root tests. A simulation study and empirical application illustrate the potential of the new approach.
Asymptotic Normality of a Class of Nonparametric Statistics
Authors: Seoh Munsup , Puri Madan L.
Published: March 2009

Asymptotic normality is established for a class of statistics which includes as special cases weighted sum of independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables, unsigned linear rank statistics, signed rank statistics, linear combination of functions of order statistics, and linear function of concomitants of order statistics. The results obtained unify as well as extend a number of known results.
SIMPLE, ROBUST, AND POWERFUL TESTS OF THE BREAKING TREND HYPOTHESIS
Authors: Harvey David I. , Leybourne Stephen J. , Taylor A.M. Robert
Published: March 2009

In this paper we develop a simple procedure that delivers tests for the presence of a broken trend in a univariate time series that do not require knowledge of the form of serial correlation in the data and are robust as to whether the shocks are generated by anI(0) or anI(1) process. Two trend break models are considered: the first holds the level fixed while allowing the trend to break, while the latter allows for a simultaneous break in level and trend. For the known break date case, our proposed tests are formed as a weighted average of the optimal tests appropriate forI(0) andI(1) shocks. The weighted statistics are shown to have standard normal limiting null distributions and to attain the Gaussian asymptotic local power envelope, in each case regardless of whether the shocks areI(0) orI(1). In the unknown break date case, we adopt the method of Andrews (1993) and take a weighted average of the statistics formed as the supremum over all possible break dates, subject to a trimming parameter, in both theI(0) andI(1) environments. Monte Carlo evidence suggests that our tests are in most cases more powerful, often substantially so, than the robust broken trend tests of Sayginsoy and Vogelsang (2004). An empirical application highlights the practical usefulness of our proposed tests.
John Leighton Stuart and U.S.-Chinese Communist Rapprochement in 1949: Was There Another “Lost Chance in China”?
Authors: Shaw Yu-ming
Published: March 2009

Reverend John Leighton Stuart (1876–1962) served as U.S. ambassador to China from July 1946 until August 1949. In the many discussions of his ambassadorship the one diplomatic mission that has aroused the most speculation and debate was his abortive trip to Beijing, contemplated in June–July 1949, to meet with Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai. Some students of Sino-American relations have claimed that had this trip been made the misunderstanding and subsequent hostility between the United States and the People's Republic of China in the post-1949 period could have been avoided; therefore, the unmaking of this trip constituted another “lost chance in China” in establishing a working relationship between the two countries. But others have thought that given the realities of the Cold War in 1949 and the internal political constraints existing in each country, no substantial result could have been gained from such a trip. Therefore, the thesis of a “lost chance in China” was more an unfounded speculation than a credible affirmation.
The Sino-Vietnamese Dispute over the Ethnic Chinese
Authors: Chang Pao-min
Published: March 2009

As in other South-east Asian countries, the controversy over the ethnic Chinese in Vietnam has its roots deep in the past and in essence centres on the issue of assimilation. However, unlike other countries in the region, Vietnam represents a unique case due to her geographical proximity and cultural affinity to China. Consequently, while ties between the Vietnamese Chinese and their homeland are traditionally closer than in perhaps any other case, over the centuries China has also been more inclined and has found it easier to intervene in Vietnamese affairs. In fact, even after French rule in Vietnam began, Beijing continued to seek to ensure most-favoured-nation treatment for all Chinese in Vietnam through a series of treaties and bilateral agreements, and also responded unfailingly to their pleas for help. According to the agreement signed with the French in 1946, the Chinese Government was even entitled to veto the selection of formal Chinese community leaders in Vietnam, thereby establishing a direct link between China and the Chinese in Vietnam.
Interpreting Chinese Grain Consumption Statistics
Authors: Walker Kenneth R.
Published: March 2009

The level of grain consumption per head is by far the most important indicator of human welfare in China. It is therefore not surprising that the provision of food grain dominates official discussions of economic policy. Since 1978 the demand for grain has been raised significantly by the acceleration of incomes, following 20 years of stagnation, although the effect of this has been mitigated by the decline in the rate of growth of population, from 2·4 per cent per year (1970–74) to 1·2 per cent (1978–80). The demand for grain for direct consumption has not yet reached saturation in most parts of China and consumption rises with income per head. The demand for fine grain (rice, wheat and soya) is more income elastic than that for coarse grain such as millet, maize and especially sweet potatoes. In addition, the Chinese people are pressing to improve their diet by consuming more livestock products, the production of which requires large quantities of grain. In spite of the fact that grain is rationed, restricted “demand” as laid down by the Government cannot be met from domestic production and China is a large grain importer. Accurate estimates of food grain consumption are thus essential if we are to assess correctly the current state of the Chinese economy and its future trends.
Khrushchev's Attack on Albania and Sino-Soviet Relations
Authors: Zagoria Donald S.
Published: March 2009

Albania's defiance of the Kremlin, which goes back to 1956, but became “especially distinct” in the middle of 1960 according to Khrushchev himself, could scarcely have endured so long if China had not given the Balkan country considerable political and economic support. Khrushchev's open attack on the Albanian Party leadership at the 22nd Party Congress in October 1961 was, of course, an attack on the Chinese Communist leadership as well. Khrushchev made his principal target plain enough when he said in his opening speech that the course laid down by the Russians at the 20th Congress in 1956 would not be changed because they could not yield on a question of principle “either to the Albanian leaders or to anyone else.” No one in the Communist world could have any doubts about who the “anyone else” was after Chinese Premier Chou En-lai had failed to applaud Khrushchev's attack on the Albanians, implicitly condemned it two days later, and abruptly returned home before the Congress had concluded. Moreover, less than twenty-four hours after the Soviet leader's attack on Albania, the Chinese Communists made public a speech delivered several days earlier by a Chinese delegate to the fifth congress of the Women's Union of Albania in Tirana; she pointedly noted that “the friendship between the Chinese and Albanian peoples, based on the principles of Marxism-Leninism and proletarian internationalism, is unbreakable and no force can destroy it.”
The Agricultural Middle School in Communist China
Authors: Barendsen Robert D.
Published: March 2009

When the Chinese Communist régime undertook the re-examination of its educational system in the latter half of 1957 and early 1958, one of the main conclusions reached by the authorities was that the government, through its regular political subdivisions, could not afford the tremendous expenditures that would be involved in achieving its long-range educational goals. These goals included the provision of the opportunity for junior middle school (7th through 9th grade) education to all young people by 1967. The régime decided that the only realistic course to follow in pursuing its goals was to assign the major part of the task of establishing and running schools in the vast rural areas to the basic socio-economic units in those areas, mainly, in other words, to the agricultural cooperatives. Accordingly, the late winter and early spring of 1958 were marked by the announcement of the rapid establishment of great numbers of min-pan hsüek-hsiao, or “schools run by the people.”
China, The United Nations, and Beyond
Authors: Halpern A. M.
Published: March 2009

The proposition needs no arguing that it would be desirable from everybody's point of view if some way could be found of bringing the 600 million people of mainland China back into effective, approximately normal relations with all the rest of the world. It is often argued that the early realisation of what the present Communist régime on the mainland claims as its legal and moral right—to represent China in the United Nations—would go very far towards accomplishing the purpose. I must confess to a considerable scepticism concerning the predictions often made about the changes in attitude and behaviour the Chinese Communists would display if they were admitted to the United Nations. Communist China's external relations depend on a number of factors besides her standing in the United Nations. There has been nothing in China's actions or declarations over the years to indicate that U.N. membership is so highly valued by the Chinese that they would of their own accord significantly modify any of their other major goals in order to achieve this one. The record indicates rather that the contrary is true.
The Sino-Soviet Dispute Through Yugoslav Eyes
Authors: Ambroz Oton
Published: March 2009

A unique view of the Sino-Soviet dispute may be had from Belgrade. Yugoslavia is at once on the side-lines of the affair, but in another sense is vitally concerned. Since the League of Yugoslav Communists “codified” Titoism in 1958 in its new, revised programme, the Chinese Communists have become the main critics of their Yugoslav comrades and thereby—obliquely—of Soviet policies as well. It was an interesting development of this that when Moscow mobilised its satellites and Communist Parties against the Chinese “dogmatists,” the time came for Belgrade to reply to Chinese attacks, siding in the main with the Kremlin. In this Yugoslav counter-attack against their Chinese critics, a book by Edvard Kardelj, Yugoslav Vice-President, Socialism and War, A Survey of Chinese Criticism of the Policy of Co-existence, has played a key role. It is a document of considerable importance, and through it we are able to see much more clearly the basic differences in the Communist camp. The revelations of the Sino-Soviet dispute in the documents, now in the hands of Western governments, correspond closely to Kardelj's assertions.
Sociology in China: A Brief Survey
Authors: Freedman Maurice
Published: March 2009

In the general history of the social sciences we assume that the marriage between sociology and anthropology comes late, having been preceded by a long courtship. China does not fit this pattern. Almost as soon as the social sciences were established there anthropology and sociology were intertwined—to be disentangled in a strange way when the Communists arrived. To avoid a tedious recitation of evidence let me call just one witness, a scholar whose later career in the United States makes his testimony underline the Chinese paradox. Writing in China in 1944 Francis L. K. Hsu says: “In this paper. the word sociology is used synonymously with the term social anthropology. Few serious Chinese scholars today maintain the distinction between the once separate disciplines. Sociologists teach anthropology in our universities as a matter of course, just as scholars with distinctively anthropological background lecture on sociology.”
Local Government and Administration in North Vietnam, 1945–1954
Authors: Ginsburgs George
Published: March 2009

Ever since it first raised the standard of revolt in Japanese-occupied French Indochina, the Viet-Minh régime has devoted an inordinate amount of time and attention to problems of local government and administration. The emphasis was just as apparent in its first Basic Law of 1945 as in the latest organic act of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, which went into effect in 1960, and in the manifold supplementary statutes promulgated in the interim to implement the constitutional provisions. This obvious concern on the part of Ho Chi Minh's leadership with the instrumentalities of local rule may be explained by reference to two different, though closely related, sets of considerations.
The Supply and Administration of Urban Housing in Mainland China: The Case of Shanghai
Authors: Howe Christopher
Published: March 2009

The history of Western industrialisation and the recent experience of developing countries both indicate that rapid industrial growth is usually accompanied by serious urban housing problems. The pressure to minimise infra-structure investment, which is expensive and only indirectly productive, is very great. The existence of this problem in China has long been recognised in general terms, but its exact dimensions have only recently been brought into question in articles by Kang Chao and William Hollister. Kang Chao has produced estimates for all urban areas which show that per capita living area approximately halved between 1949 and 1960. Hollister, in his work on capital formation, argues that a decline of this magnitude has not taken place. The difference between these two views arises first from Hollister's addition of 70 per cent, to the official housing construction figures for socialist enterprises for the years 1950 to 1955. This addition is the estimated extent of housing construction in the private sector. The second difference between the two estimates arises from the treatment of depreciation and repair work. Kang Chao makes no allowance for repair work and estimates depreciation to be 2 per cent, annually. Hollister on the other hand considers that 1 per cent depreciation is sufficient and estimates that repair work to this value has been done. Neither writer offers any systematic statistical evidence for his estimate of depreciation and repair. This is unfortunate, since these differences, over periods of ten years or more, lead to radically opposed appraisals of the housing situation.
The Influence of the Past: How the Early Years Helped to Shape the Future of the Chinese Communist Party
Authors: Wilbur C. Martin
Published: March 2009

Early in 1928 the Chinese Communist Party was in crisis. It might have disintegrated and disappeared. Yet in fact it persisted, constantly refashioned itself, and ultimately became the political system of the country. The broad questions we may ask about this historical fact are: What was the nature of the Party in 1928? What had been the experience of the leadership? And what was the relationship between the Party, with its distinctive ideology, and the Chinese social environment?
Hong Kong and Taiwan Sources for Research into the Cultural Revolution Period
Authors: Bennett Gordon A.
Published: March 2009

The intent of this short article is to introduce scholars who have not recently worked in Hong Kong or Taiwan to the kinds of research materials relating to the Cultural Revolution which are now available there. Most of the sources discussed, however, are at least equally valuable for studying problems of earlier years as well. Treatment is generally limited to sources not included in Berton and Wu's recently published bibliography, although additional information can be found in that volume about the Union Research Institute and about some of the Taiwan organisations mentioned.
The May Seventh Cadre School for Eastern Peking
Authors: Wang James C. F.
Published: March 2009

From 26 December 1972 to 24 January 1973, I was a member of a group from the University of Hawaii visiting various institutions of higher learning in China. The group consisted of five Chinese-speaking faculty members and five graduate students with varied interests and specializations. Since my own particular subject is the training and political education of cadres, I requested permission to visit a May Seventh cadre school. This report examines the May Seventh Cadre School for Eastern Peking and is based upon information gathered on a visit there in January 1973. Officials of the school told us that from its establishment, on 7 November 1968, to January 1973, approximately 3,300 cadres from eastern Peking graduated from the school. The extent of this particular school's involvement in training cadres for eastern Peking is best illustrated by the public disclosure that over half of the cadres in eastern Peking have attended it.
The Fall of Lin Piao
Authors: Bridgham Philip
Published: March 2009

By 1964 Mao Tse-tung had lost effective control over much of the Party hierarchy set up by his “successor,” and also over the state administrative apparatus… Liu Shao-ch'i and his like-minded comrades utilized the Mao cult in theory and slighted Maoism in practice… Mao was convinced that the people and Party rank and file were with him but were misled by his disloyal opposition. … Edgar Snow, “Aftermath of the Cultural Revolution,” inThe New Republic, 10 April 1971.
Residual Femininity: Women in Chinese Communist Fiction
Authors: Hsia C. T.
Published: March 2009

In Chinese Communist literature, men and women are primarily seen in their likeness as workers rather than in their sexual and emotional unlikeness as human beings. Women, as much as men, are praised for their socialist zeal and heroic capacity for work and condemned for being socialist sluggards indifferent to production. But despite its repudiation of “human interest” as a symptom of capitalist or revisionist decadence, even this supremely practical literature cannot begin to exist without some superficial attention to personal problems, and these problems, inevitably, attest to the persistence of biological instincts and immemorial habits of human civilisation. Until the techniques, Communist or otherwise, for dehumanisation are perfected, men and women will remain subject to irrational passions, and if circumstances permit, they will fall in love, get married, bring up children, and in other devious ways contrive for pleasure and happiness. In tracing the lot of Chinese women under Communism, I will therefore take for granted that the primary purpose of their earthly existence is to contribute to and assist in production and examine rather their residual personal problems in the context of the overriding importance of socialist construction. The results of niy investigation, if my women characters, drawn invariably from short stories, are at all typical, will show, not surprisingly, the pathetic adjustment of their feminine instincts and interests to the jealous demands of Party and state. The exceptions that I will take notice of—sympathetic victims and challengers of the impersonal Communist bureaucracy—are all heroines of revisionist fiction that has been subject to vehement attack by the press.
Industrial Workers in Chinese Communist Fiction
Authors: Yang Richard F. S.
Published: March 2009

In the opinion of the Communists, the significance of the Literary Renaissance in modern China beginning with the May Fourth movement of 1919, lies not in that it introduced the colloquial language as the new medium for literature, but in that it ushered into China a new literature which replaced the “old-fashioned, out-of-date literature of the bourgeois class.” But the new literature which the Communists had hoped for did not fully develop until the political revolution led by the Communists succeeded, and a new régime was established in 1949. To implement the literary revolution and to introduce the people's new literature, the Communist régime called the first conference of the All-China Federation of Literary and Art Circles in July, 1949 at which the government spokesmen expounded the concepts and scope of this new literature and outlined a programme for “literary workers” to follow. Since these expositions were indeed the expressions of the policies of the new régime on literary reform and are therefore pertinent to the discussion in this paper, they must be cited here as a point of reference.
Twenty Years After the Yenan Forum
Authors: Hsia T. A.
Published: March 2009

In 1962, commemorative activities were held in Communist China to celebrate the twentieth anniversary of the publication of Mao's Talks at the Yenan Forum on Literature and Art. In the same year, a group of scholars and writers working in America and Britain gathered near Oxford to ponder over Chinese Communist literature. Though the coincidence was not intentional, it did force on one's mind a disturbing sense of history. For no review of Chinese Communist literature, from our point of view or theirs, can escape the fact of control, and the control began with Mao's Talks. The success of the control, of course, is something to be celebrated in Communist China, but the defects in the Chinese Communist writing, noted at the conference in England, indicate the costs paid for that success. For these defects are made to order. It is beyond the power of any single writer in Communist China to correct them. He is bound to contribute to the collective errors if he wishes to avoid a political offence.
The December 9th Movement: A Case Study in Chinese Communist Historiography
Authors: Israel John
Published: March 2009

Communist literature on “Contemporary (post-May 4) History” in which China begins a “bourgeois democratic reVolution” is more than an ideological exercise; it is autobiographical. The leading character is none other than the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) itself. The emotional inVolvement of mainland scribes is comparable to that of a public figure writing his biography. Every event from 1919 to the present is regarded in the light of the CCP's role. Communist leadership is even attributed to the May 4 Movement, which antedated the Party's formation by two years.
Teaching English in China
Authors: Lary Diana
Published: March 2009

China lost her Soviet experts. But this did not mean the end of foreigners working in China. Instead of employing engineers and technicians from the motherland of Socialism, the Chinese Government is now employing a motley assortment of foreigners, almost exclusively from non-Communist countries, as language teachers and as “polishers” for foreign language publications.
On Photographs
Authors: MacFarquhar Roderick
Published: March 2009

Regarding the question of hanging the portraits of our leaders, the Central Authorities made a clear ruling as early as 29 March 1960… “In the organizations for ehe Party, the People's Liberation Army and the people's associations of various kinds, it is permitted to hang the portrait of Mao Tse-tung alone; it is also permitted to hang the portrait of Mao Tse-tung, Liu Shao-ch'i, Chou En-lai, Chu Te, Ch'en Yun, Lin Piao, Teng Hsiao-p'ing, seven persons. The manner of hanging these portraits is: if it is desirable to hang the seven portraits of Mao, Liu, Chou, Chu, Ch'en, Lin, Teng together, the portrait of Mao Tse-tung can be placed in the centre and the others on the two sides. It is also suitable to put the portrait of Mao Tse-tung in the first place and the others in order as indicated, and from left to right. According to our understanding there are now not a few units, especially the primary level units, which have not hung the portraits as described above. We are asking these units to inspect carefully the way in which these instructions have been carried out so that we may have a unified system according to the regulations of the Central Authorities.
Methods of Communication within the Chinese Bureaucracy
Authors: Oksenberg Michel
Published: March 2009

Not until the Tenth Party Congress in August 1973 did the Chinese mass media openly refer to the “Lin Piao affair.” Yet, almost all Chinese - including Kwangtung commune members - had been given an explanation for his demise sometime previously, so the revelations of the Tenth Congress came as no surprise. Without help from the mass media, but with guidance from the network of political study groups, the Chinese had been taught how to decode such esoteric phrases as “Liu Shao-ch'i type swindlers” which appeared in the media. The dissemination of information about Lin Piao was the most dramatic but not the first indication of China's dual communication network: the open, mass media and the closed system contained within the bureaucracy (except for the final link to the populace). To cite other prominent examples, a recorded tape of Mao's important 27 February 1957 speech “On the Correct Handling of Contradictions among the People” was played for select audiences long before the revised version was published in June 1957. The series of edicts on agriculture and the socialist education campaign in the early 1960s were widely disseminated; yet the open press only reflected the spirit of the documents. Mao's interview with Edgar Snow that explained and sanctified Nixon's visit went unrecorded in the open media, but circulated widely among cadres.
Ho-Chi-Minh In Hong Kong, 1931–32
Authors: Duncanson Dennis J.
Published: March 2009

It has long been known that, after superintending the secret foundation of the Indochina Communist Party (ICP) in Hong Kong on behalf of the Comintern, between February and October 1930, Ho-chi-Minh stayed on in disguise and was eventually detected and detained by the colonial authorities. What happened to him whilst in custody, and how long he so remained, has often been related but, unfortunately, this has never been done accurately and has sometimes been done fancifully. Indeed, in part because of Ho's own lifelong efforts to mislead the rest of the world about his identity, movements and purposes, error has persisted over the Hong Kong episode, including the version of the late Bernard Fall. To cite but one of many examples, when Ho died in 1969, The Times published an obituary in which the story of his detention in Hong Kong, and of the subsequent appeal on his behalf to the Privy Council on a suit for writ of habeas corpus, was highlighted and accompanied by the gloss that he had been defended by no less a luminary than Sir Stafford Cripps. At once, the late Mr D. N. Pritt, the communist Q.C., (senior attorney) wrote to correct this error, explaining that he himself had been retained as counsel for Ho, while Cripps had acted on behalf of the Hong Kong Government, in his capacity of United Kingdom Solicitor-General. But Pritt fell into error himself here: not only would it have been inappropriate for the Solicitor-General to plead on behalf of the Hong Kong Government, but at the time in question (June 1932) Cripps had been out of office for 10 months. As we shall see below, Cripps's true standing in the matter was as defence counsel retained by the Hong Kong Government's London solicitors, Messrs Burchells. In his version of the story, Pritt's memory had betrayed him into misdating the whole episode from 1931–32 to 1930–31; and, indeed, even J. H. Brimmel, usually such a careful author, had made the same mistake 10 years before.
The Reform of Peking Opera in Taiwan
Authors: Johnson Irmgard
Published: March 2009

Readers of this journal who, like myself, have been interested by Colin Mackerras’ article on “Chinese Opera after the Cultural Revolution (1970–72)” in The China Quarterly, No. 55, may like to have some comments on the fate of traditional Peking opera in Taiwan. There, too, there has been “reform” although not generally in such an obvious or dramatic form as on the mainland. At first sight indeed, one might think that ways in which opera is treated on the mainland and in Taiwan are completely different, with the one concentrating on opera as a weapon in the social and political struggle and the other on the development of opera as an artistic form. Nevertheless, in studying aesthetic and theatrical aspects of the changes taking place in Taiwan, which is my main academic interest in the subject, I have been struck by the fact that these can in no way be disentangled from social and political forces.
Statistics and the Field Army Loyalty System
Authors: Whitson William W.
Published: March 2009

Although many readers would probably interpret William Parish's article in the previous issue of The China Quarterly (“Factions in Chinese Military Politics,” CQ, No. 56, pp. 667–699) as an attack on my 1969 assessment of the historic role of the Field Army in post-1950 Chinese politics, I am nevertheless sincerely grateful to him for keeping the dialogue about “loyalty systems” alive. Indeed, I am struck by the irony of our respective positions. He seems to argue that, while the Field Army loyalty system apparently (according to my statistics) had little demonstrable impact on elite assignments before the Cultural Revolution, the same system apparently (according to his statistics) helps clarify factional behaviour within the PLA during and after the Cultural Revolution. The irony of this is doubled since the statistical evidence which I now have available argues that “the old boy net” of the Field Armies actually had a diminishing impact on the domestic politics of China in the late 1960s. By then the Military Region as a geo-political unit had replaced the Field Army as a temporary focus of individual and collective PLA loyalties.
Before and After The Cultural Revolution
Authors: Teiwes Frederick C.
Published: March 2009

It comes as no surprise to current visitors to China that their hosts place great emphasis on the accomplishments of the Cultural Revolution. While production increases and improvements in living conditions are repeatedly cited, the basic change is spiritual – before the Cultural Revolution, elitist and selfish attitudes were allegedly widespread; since the Revolution, a new commitment to the common good by cadres and masses alike has purportedly enriched Chinese life. This preoccupation with the Cultural Revolution stems from more than a need to justify past upheavals, it reflects an ongoing debate over the realization of goals sanctified by that movement. The twin efforts of rebuilding the system and institutionalizing Cultural Revolution reforms have apparently caused deep misgivings on the part of some leaders who see a thinly disguised effort to “restore the old.” Thus the question of how China has changed since 1965 is of current policy relevance as well as intrinsic scholarly interest.
A Recent Movement to Redefine the Role and Status of Women
Authors: Croll Elisabeth
Published: March 2009

At the outset of the recent anti-Confucian and Lin Piao campaign it was forecast that this movement would “ surely create still more •r favourable conditions for the emancipation of women.” x To create conditions advantageous to women the campaign set out to identify the obstacles inhibiting the redefinition of the role and status of women, j The identification of problem areas is not a new element in the history of the women's movement, indeed the problems have been stated time and again. The significance of this campaign lies in its concentrated and analytical attempt to integrate the redefinition of the female role with a nation-wide effort to change the self-image and expectations of both men and women. In this it provides a contrast with the strategy of the previous national campaign, the Cultural Revolution. Historically the women's movement has been very much concerned with raising the confidence of women in their own individual and collective abilities and translating the individual experience of suppression into a coherent analysis of oppression, but there is evidence to suggest that there was too little attention given to the position of women in the Cultural Revolution. For instance many associations and enterprises encouraged their members to believe that so long as overall revolutionary aims were fulfilled, there was no need to pay” particular attention to the position of women.2 The recent campaign and its application to practical problems among both men and women is a new recognition that because of their history of oppression it is still necessary to pay special attention to the restraints that continue to hinder the redefinition of women's role and status in society.
Transcript of Discussions With Wu Daying and Zhang Zhonglin Concerning Legal Change and Civil Rights
Authors: Keith Ronald C.
Published: March 2009

The following is an abridged transcript of an afternoon discussion of 9 May 1979 at the central building of the People's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries in Beijing. Wu Daying is presently deputy director of the Institute of Law, Academy of Social Sciences, while Zhang Zhonglin, also a member of the Institute, is a prominent legal theorist, who has had a high profile in his dealings with western jurists. Miss Gao Jian and Mrs Lu Wanru acted as interpreters. The Chinese principals answered the questions of various members of the Prairie Canada-China Friendship Associations, who are, herein, referred to by their surnames.
Chinese Foreign Policy in 1970: The Tilt Towards the Soviet Union
Authors: Garver John
Published: March 2009

It has become conventional wisdom that the U.S.–Chinarapprochementwas a result (from the Chinese side) of Beijing's fear of the Soviet Union. Specifically, the Warsaw Pact occupation of Czechoslovakia in August 1968 and the border confrontation which developed rapidly in the months after the clashes at Zhen Bao island on the Ussuri River in March 1969, are seen as exacerbating Chinese fears of Soviet attack.1 These fears had emerged during the Cultural Revolution when Moscow began insinuating that it might intervene in China in support of the anti-Maoist, “healthy forces.” 2 It was in hopes of deterring possible Soviet invasion, surgical strike, or intervention – so the argument runs – that Beijing wanted to improve relations with Washington. By establishing more cordial relations between Beijing and Washington, the risks which Moscow would assume in making a decision to attack China would be increased. Soviet-American détente would, conceivably, be endangered. The possibility of a Soviet-American confrontation arising out of such a Soviet attack on China could not be ruled out. This added increment of uncertainty about the U.S. response to a Soviet attack on China would be useful in preventing such an attack. Thus, it is concluded, in November 1968 Beijing moved to reopen the talks with the U.S. at Warsaw as a first step towards substantially improving Sino-American relations. Two years after the clashes at Zhen Bao the U.S. table tennis team arrived in Beijing in April 1971. A snowballing series of events rapidly unfolded, culminating in the 15 July 1971 announcement of Henry Kissinger's visit to China and President Nixon's impending visit
Mao, Lin Biao and the Fifth Encirclement Campaign
Authors: Hu Chi-hsi
Published: March 2009

In more respects than one, the Fifth Encirclement Campaign launched by Chiang Kai-shek in 1933–34 against the Jiangxi Soviet may be considered as an important landmark in contemporary Chinese history. From a purely military standpoint, in view of its scope and the particular means used, it is undoubtedly the first modern Chinese campaign. General Jacques Guillermaz points out, quite rightly, that “the methodical nature of the operations, the importance given to fire power and logistical resources, and the tactical use of large and small units all bring the Fifth Campaign closer to certain phases of the 1914–18 war than to traditional Chinese civil wars.” Precisely because of its scope and its methodical nature, the Fifth Campaign, rather than the first four, led Mao, after the Long March, to evolve a theory of guerrilla warfare which “has broken out of the bounds of tactics to knock at the gates of strategy.” This theory, applied first of all to the war against Japan and later to the Third Revolutionary Civil War, was to change the face of China.
Mao ZeDong's On Contradiction and On Practice: Pre-Liberation Texts
Authors: Knight Nick
Published: March 2009

Despite the flood of Mao's previously unknown works released by Red Guards during the Cultural Revolution, no pre-liberation versions of his “celebrated philosophical essays” On Contradiction and On Practice came to light from that source. This gap in the Red Guard material may have been viewed as significant, confirming suspicions held by some that there were in fact no pre-liberation versions of these essays, and showing more conclusively the mendacity of the Chinese claim that they were originally written in 1937. Arthur Cohen, perhaps the most vociferous critic of Mao's “originality” as philosopher, argued in 1964 that both essays had been written in the period 1950 to 1952, and that the Chinese claim “appears to be fraudulent.” Doolin and Golas also contest the Chinese claim that On Contradiction was written by Mao in 1937. In both cases, the motivation for this falsification of the date of composition is interpreted as being the desire to backdate Mao's status as a Marxist theoretician to the early Yan'an period. Schram and Wittfogel, however, have both accepted the possibility that On Contradiction and On Practice could have been written in 1937, while not denying that the 1950 and 1952 texts could represent heavily revised versions of earlier pieces. Schram, in fact, has argued that Mao's Lecture Notes on Dialectical Materialism, On Practice and On Contradiction belonged to “a single intellectual enterprise, namely Mao's attempt to come to terms with the philosophical basis of Marxism from the time he was first exposed to it in July 1936 until the Japanese attack of September 1937 turned his attention to more practical things.”
Hua Guofeng and the Village Drama Movement in the North-west Shanxi Base Area, 1943–45
Authors: Holm David
Published: March 2009

It has long been recognized that there is a particularly close relationship between art and politics in post-1949 China. And indeed this is true. The relationship, however, has usually been viewed only in “macro” terms, as one in which the Party – or the Party through its agents – stifles dissent and makes demands on writers and artists for works reflecting “the Party line”. As a general description of course there may be more than a grain of truth in this, but put in this way nothing could be less interesting. A more complex and dialectical picture emerges when one focuses more sharply on the process of artistic production in its immediate social context. The study of village-level drama and song-and-dance is ideal for this kind of investigation, in spite of the fact that it is “mere propaganda”: not only does it allow us a closer look at the actual implementation and effects of cultural policy, rather than just policy formulation, but often evidence is sufficient for us to discern salient features of the local cultural context and the ways in which artistic form and content have been adapted to specific local issues and local personalities. At this level in Chinese society, where relationships between cadres, artists and their audiences are personalized and the deeds of local labour heroes re-enacted on stage, the distinction between art and reality is not all that clear, stage action mimics political action, and vice versa, and the roles of the Party cadre and stage director are intertwined.
Chinese Textbooks, Fourteen Years on
Authors: Price R. F.
Published: March 2009

This paper is intended to serve as a contribution to the study of school textbooks in the People's Republic of China, and, in particular, as a first look at such books since the Cultural Revolution and the death of Chairman Mao Zedong. Because of the nature of the sample it makes no claim to being definitive. But the near-impossibility of obtaining such books abroad and the dominant role they play in the Chinese classroom give the subject some importance.
The Suppression of Secret Societies in Post-Liberation Tientsin
Authors: Lieberthal Kenneth
Published: March 2009

On 15 January 1949 Tientsin fell to Chinese communist forces. As the first of the major treaty ports captured by the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and with a population of over 1·8 million, it presented its new rulers with a vast array of complex problems, considerably greater than any they had previously encountered. One of the most important of these was the question of how to deal with the various socio-economic groups which dominated Tientsin society at the time of Liberation. Tientsin is a particularly useful case study in this respect, for not only was it the first major metropolis where strategies had to be devised to cope with this problem, but also the solutions worked out in Tientsin frequently served as models for other areas. Within Tientsin, perhaps the most powerful type of social organization was the secret society. This article begins with a brief survey of the general social situation, to put the secret societies into their proper context; it then details the Chinese Communist Party's strategy for handling Tientsin's secret societies and the problems which it encountered.
Uygur Performing Arts in Contemporary China
Authors: Mackerras Colin
Published: March 2009

There are 13 nationalities currently dwelling within the boundaries of the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (XUAR), China's most westerly and largest unit at provincial level. The most populous nationality is the Uygur, a Turkic people, who at the end of 1982 numbered about 5,986,800 out of Xinjiang's total population of 13,159,000. Others include the Han, at 5,287,000 people, the Kazakhs (913,900), the Hui (575,500), the Mongolians (117,200), the Kirghiz (114,200), the Xibo (27,500), and Tajiks (27,100).