The impact of vaccination strategies for COVID-19 in the context of emerging variants and increasing social mixing in Bogotá, Colombia: a mathematical modelling study
Authors: España Guido , Cucunubá Zulma M. , Cuervo-Rojas Juliana , Díaz Hernando , González-Mayorga Manuel , Ramírez Juan David 
Published: August 2021

Background

In Bogotá by August 1st, more than 27,000 COVID-19 deaths have been reported, while complete and partial vaccination coverage reached 30% and 37%, respectively. Although reported cases are decreasing, the potential impact of new variants is uncertain.

Methods

We used an agent-based model of COVID-19 calibrated to local data. Variants and vaccination strategies were included. We estimated the impact of vaccination and modelled scenarios of early and delayed introduction of the delta variant, along with changes in mobility, social contact, and vaccine uptake over the next months.

Findings

By mid-July, vaccination may have prevented 17,800 (95% CrI: 16,000 - 19,000) deaths in Bogotá. We found that delta could lead to a fourth wave of magnitude and timing dependent on social mixing, vaccination strategy, and delta dominance. In scenarios of early dominance of delta by mid-July, age prioritization and maintaining the interval between doses were important factors to avert deaths. However, if delta dominance occurred after mid-September, age prioritization would be less relevant, and the magnitude of a four wave would be smaller. In all scenarios, higher social mixing increased the magnitude of the fourth wave. Increasing vaccination rates from 50,000/day to 100,000/day reduced the impact of a fourth wave due to delta.

Interpretation

The magnitude and timing of a potential fourth wave in Bogotá caused by delta would depend on social mixing and the timing of dominance. Rapidly increasing vaccination coverage with non-delayed second doses could reduce the burden of a new wave.

Funding

NSF RAPID DEB 2027718. HERMES 50419. Medical Research Council. MR/R024855/1

Research in Context

Evidence before this study

The impact of vaccination strategies in the context of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants and increasing social mixing in Colombia had not been previously evaluated through mathematical modelling. We searched PubMed for modelling studies using the terms “COVID-19 vaccine AND model AND variant AND Colombia” or “SARS-CoV-2 AND vaccine AND model AND variant AND Colombia” (From 2021/1/1 to 2021/07/31). We did not find studies addressing this question. However, we found a model describing the evolution of the epidemic in the country during the first year, and research on the emergence of alpha, gamma, and B.1.621 variants in Colombia. We extended a previous version of our SARS-CoV-2 agent-based model for Bogotá to include the potential effect of vaccination and variants. This model simulates transmission of SARS-CoV-2 based on daily activity patterns of a synthetic population, representing demographic and geographic characteristics of the total population of the city.

Added value of this study

First, our study provides a preliminary estimate of the impact of the vaccination program in Bogotá in terms of the number of deaths prevented. The second major finding is the indication that due to the introduction of the delta variant in the city, and based on the current knowledge of its biology, there is a risk of a fourth epidemic wave, whose time of occurrence and magnitude would depend mainly on three factors: when delta becomes dominant, the intensity of social contact, and vaccination roll-out strategy and coverage.

Implications of all the available evidence

We estimate that by mid-July, vaccination may have already prevented 17,800 (95% CrI: 16,000 - 19,000) deaths in Bogotá. The delta variant could become dominant and lead to a fourth wave later in the year, but its timing will depend on the date of introduction, social mixing patterns, and vaccination strategy. In all scenarios, higher social mixing is associated with a fourth wave of considerable magnitude. If an early delta introduction occurred (dominance by mid-July), a new wave may occur in August/September and in such case, age prioritization of vaccination and maintaining the 21-day interval between doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2 are more important. However, if introduction occurred one or two months later (with dominance by mid-August/September) a fourth wave would be of smaller magnitude, the age-prioritization is less relevant, but maintaining the dose scheme without postponement is more important. In all scenarios we found that increasing the vaccination rate from the current average of 50,000/day to 100,000/day reduces the impact of a potential fourth wave due to the delta variant. Our study indicates that given the possibility of a fourth wave in the city, it is necessary to continue maintaining adherence to non-pharmacological interventions, such as the use of face masks and physical distancing, to be cautious with the intensification of social activities, and that it is essential to increase the current pace of vaccinations to rapidly reach high vaccination coverage in the population of the city.