bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Efficacy of Homoeopathic Ultra High Dilutions in management of Dysmenorrhoea: A Review
Authors: APHALE DR PARTH , Sharma Dr. Dharmendra , Shekhar Himanshu
Published: March 2024

Introduction: Dysmenorrhea, or painful menstruation, affects a substantial portion of women worldwide, with prevalence rates reaching up to 67 to 90% among young women. This condition, characterized by intense lower abdominal cramps and associated symptoms, has a significant impact on women's quality of life. Conventional treatments like non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) have limitations, leading many to explore alternative therapies such as homeopathy. Objective: This article reviews the effects of homeopathic treatments on dysmenorrhea patients and examines seven studies conducted in this context. Methods: Studies which meet the specific required criteria; involving dysmenorrhea and Homoeopathy and being published in peer-reviewed English-language scientific journals were only included. Various parameters, such as disease intensity scales, the Menstrual Distress Questionnaire (MDQ), Pain Rating Scale (PRS), Visual Analogue Scale (VAS), and quality of life (QoL) using the World Health Organization Quality of Life: Brief Version (WHOQOL-BREF) scale, numerical rating scale (NRS), and verbal multidimensional scoring system (VMSS), were evaluated. The results before and after treatment with homoeopathic high dilutions have been compared and summarized. Results: Clinical analysis and statistical data of reviewed studies reveal homeopathic high dilutions as effective for Primary Dysmenorrhea, reducing pain (VAS), improving quality of life (WHOQOL), and demonstrating safety, emphasizing their holistic potential.
Assessing the effects of long-term landscape evolution on the overburden of deep repository sites: application to northern Switzerland
Authors: Landgraf Angela , Schnellmann Michael , Vogel Kristin , Betz Wolfgang , Straub Daniel , Schwanghart Wolfgang , Arrowsmith J Ramon , Mudd Simon , Graf Emma , Ludwig Andreas , Kober Florian , Deplazes Gaudenz , Fischer Urs , Becker Jens , Maier Fabian , Scherbaum Frank
Published: March 2024

The safety assessment of radioactive waste repositories requires scenarios and forecasts of the erosional, climatic, and tectonic future evolution. One of the major challenges in the assessment of long-term landscape evolution for safety is that the relevant processes, models and model parameters are subject to a range of significant uncertainties. Assessments should provide the full range of conceivable developments using the best available scientific knowledge. Here, we present an assessment framework for future erosion with a rigorous uncertainty management. The approach anticipates erosion from fluvial, hillslope, and glacial processes over a timescale of 105-106 years. Uncertainties are addressed in a hybrid way, using probabilistic methods in combination with a scenario approach, whereby the chosen scenarios cover a wide range of possibilities. A protocol was followed to derive model parameter uncertainties that respect individual estimates of experts. The entire process is accompanied by a sensitivity analysis. We used the workflow to assess erosion in Northern Switzerland over the next million years. The results serve as input to site a deep geological repository for nuclear waste in Switzerland and to demonstrate its long-term safety.
Developing, Testing, and Modeling of an Innovative Thermal Stabilization Method for Alpine Permafrost Protection
Authors: Sharaborova Elizaveta , Huwald Hendrik , Lehning Michael
Published: March 2024

Permafrost thawing in the Alps and elsewhere is leading to infrastructure failure. Implementation of protective measures is therefore necessary to avoid incidents and damage to both infrastructure and the environment. Existing methods for thermal stabilization of permafrost are not directly applicable to the particular conditions of the Alps. For instance, traditional passive thermal stabilization techniques do not provide rapid and substantial soil stabilization. Meanwhile, active methods present financial constraints and have not yet achieved complete efficiency. Here we present a novel solar-powered thermal stabilization system to effectively protect Alpine permafrost and the most vulnerable infrastructure built on it from the impacts of global warming. To understand how these thermal stabilization methods affect the permafrost, numerical simulations using the SNOWPACK model are performed for the Schilthorn Alpine permafrost site (Switzerland, 2900 m a.s.l.). First, the natural permafrost conditions in the soil are simulated as reference state. Then, thermal stabilization components are included and their effect is quantified and evaluated.To demonstrate the working principle of the thermal stabilization system and to gauge its performance and requirements, a laboratory-scale prototype demonstrator of the system was built and experimental data of the prototype are compared to numerical simulations of a digital twin. The setup includes the components of the thermal stabilization system, which are a cooling pipe for generating a cold barrier layer, as well as temperature, soil moisture, and heat flux sensors for measuring the conditions and processes occurring in the permafrost sample. This data is used to assess the performance and efficiency of the thermal stabilization system. Measurement results indicate that a frozen barrier layer at the level of the pipes can be created and maintained, avoiding heat penetration deeper into the soil and keeping the permafrost sample frozen during the time of the experiment.Findings from the prototype experiment combined with numerical modeling and optimized engineering will enable advanced engineering design and physical process understanding of effective thermal stabilization systems even considering further impact of climate change.
Laboratory for Observing Anoxic Microsites in Soils (LOAMS)
Authors: Noël Vincent , Webb Samuel , Boye Kristin
Published: March 2024

Redox reactions essentially underlie several biogeochemical processes and are typically spatiotemporally heterogeneous in soils and sediments. However, redox heterogeneity has yet to be incorporated into mainstream conceptualizations and modeling of soil biogeochemistry. Anoxic microsites, a defining feature of soil redox heterogeneity, are non-majority oxygen depleted zones in otherwise oxic environments. Neglecting to account for anoxic microsites can generate major uncertainties in quantitative assessments of greenhouse gas emissions, C sequestration, as well as nutrient and contaminant cycling at the ecosystem to global scales. However, only a few studies have observed/characterized anoxic microsites in undisturbed soils, primarily, because soil is opaque and microsites require µm-cm scale resolution over cm-m scales. Consequently, our current understanding of microsite characteristics does not support model parameterization.To resolve this knowledge gap, we simultaneously (i) study impact from anoxic microsites on biogeochemical cycles at the soil scale and (ii) detect, quantify, and characterize anoxic microsites directly from natural cores.We have examined the influence of anoxic microsites on biogeochemical cycles of nutrients (C, S, and Fe) and contaminants (Zn, Ni, As, U), combining results from experimental columns and natural cm-scale anoxic microsites of floodplain sediments at the upper Colorado River Basin scale. In parallel, we have demonstrated through a proof-of-concept study that X-ray fluorescence (XRF) 2D mapping can reliably detect, quantify, and provide basic redox characterization of anoxic microsites using solid phase “forensic” evidence. Rapid screening of large cores at high spatial and energy resolution, i.e. 1-100 µm resolution over cm-m areas, followed by systematic algorithm-driven data processing, allows for relatively quick identification, quantification, and characterization of actual anoxic microsites. To date, these investigations have revealed direct evidence of anoxic microsites in predominantly oxic soils such as from an oak savanna and toeslope soil of a mountainous watershed, where anaerobicity would typically not be expected. We also revealed preferential spatial distribution of redox microsites inside aggregates from oak savanna soils. We anticipate that this approach will advance our understanding of soil biogeochemistry and help resolve “anomalous” occurrences of reduced products in nominally oxic soils.
A new dataset of daily observations from a dense network of weather stations covering the Extended Alpine Region
Authors: Bongiovanni Giulio , Matiu Michael , Crespi Alice , Napoli Anna , Majone Bruno , Zardi Dino
Published: March 2024

Several observational products of key climate variables have been widely used to evaluate the extent of the ongoing effects of climate change in the Alpine area, one of the most vulnerable and sensitive regions to the continuous warming of climate. However, a limited spatial coverage in most observational products and quality issues of data may strongly impact climate and hydrological studies results in terms of reliability, accuracy and precision. Even though the collection and management of meteorological data for the whole Alpine area is a challenging task due to strong fragmentation and diversity of data sources, further efforts need to be dedicated to produce new harmonised, high-quality and high-resolution products able to permit a more robust assessment of climate change and its impacts.  Here we present a new observational dataset gathering in-situ measurements of meteo-climatic variables provided by a variety of meteorological and hydrological services within the extended Alpine region. The observational network consists of about 10000 in-situ weather stations, measuring key climate variables up to 2020 at daily time resolution, resulting in an extended and homogeneous coverage, both in space and elevation. Data collected are screened, inspecting the presence of most important critical issues in terms of data quality. A deep quality control of collected time series has been performed by checking internal, temporal and spatial consistency of time series, exploiting the problem of outlier removal. Inhomogeneities in time series are detected by a multi-methods approach and significant inhomogeneous periods are corrected. A climatological and trend analysis, in terms of both mean and extreme values, was carried out on a selection of homogenised time series extending over the period 1961-2020. The most common climate indices and statistics are used to perform the analysis at different time frequencies and spatial scales. A further analysis concerned the relationship between climate variables and main teleconnection patterns.The present dataset addresses the most important issues affecting state-of-the-art observational products and it represents a powerful tool for better understanding Alpine climate changes over the last decades and improving the reliability of future scenarios.
Atmospheric Rivers as a Component of Multi-hazards and their Influence on Western U.S. Water Management
Authors: Shearer Eric , Wells Emily , Siddiqui Sharmin , AghaKouchak Amir , Albano Christine , Giovando Jeremy , Floyd Ian , Talbot Cary
Published: March 2024

The Forecast Informed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) initiative, led by the United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) in collaboration with multiple agencies and university partners, marks a significant shift in integrating advanced weather and hydrologic forecasting into reservoir management, particularly on the US West Coast. At the heart of FIRO is the utilization of the predictability of atmospheric river (AR) landfall over multi-day timescales. However, challenges remain in fully understanding and predicting the interactions of ARs with critical environmental conditions, such as post-burn fire scars, saturated watersheds, and heavy snowpack, as well as other phenomena that contribute to hazards, including in the context of water management. Given the evolving patterns of rain, snow, and wildfires in the region, these factors underscore the urgency for proactive insights into multi-hazards and their effect on water management.In addressing these challenges, our project conducts a thorough analysis of literature regarding ARs as drivers of hazards and their contributions to multi-hazard events, noting that their interactions vary geographically and temporally in response to climate change, necessitating spatially distributed climate change adaptation strategies for USACE water management for hazard conditions. This project is complimented by the creation of a comprehensive multi-hazard inventory for California, encompassing various hazards across different timescales. This inventory is supported by diverse data sources, including the NOAA NCEI Storm Event Data, the Rutz AR Catalog, USGS/USDA Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity Fire Data, and USACE's annual state-level flood damage reports. A key aspect of our study is the inclusion of the location of USACE infrastructure, particularly dams and reservoirs, to identify those most vulnerable to multi-hazard events historically.The outcomes of this project are anticipated to offer critical insights and practical tools for decision-makers within the USACE water management community and beyond. These tools and insights are aimed at equipping them to better navigate the complex and evolving challenges presented by climate change. Through this initiative, we aim to contribute significantly to the development of more resilient and adaptive water management strategies in the face of a dynamic and changing environment.
Space Weathering Provides a Lower Limit on the Age of Saturn’s Rings
Authors: Esposito Larry W. , Elliott Joshua P. , Bradley E. Todd
Published: March 2024

Cassini observations of the micrometeoroid bombardment flux, ring mass and fractional pollution constrain the origin and history of Saturn’s rings. In the simplest model, the age of the rings can be estimated by assuming the rings are a closed system with constant bombardment at the current rate. Observations during the Cassini Grand Finale orbits provide some challenges for this assumption. Further, the remote sensing of the rings shows a red slope, with higher pollution at the shortest wavelengths, consistent with reddening due to space weathering of atmosphereless bodies. If processes at the time of the micrometeorite impacts or subsequent chemical and physical weathering can degrade the original pollutants, this means that laboratory spectra are not appropriate to determine the total extrinsic material that has struck the rings over its lifetime. Rosetta data on the dust composition and surface reflectivity of Comet P67 provide our starting point for the composition of the bombarding material. Laboratory results for irradiation of icy outer solar system analogues indicate oxidation of organics and other pollutants over time. It is now generally agreed that the radiolysis of ice by energetic ions, electrons and solar UV photons produces the oxygen, ozone and peroxide seen at many icy satellites. The porosity of ice provides sufficient space for chemical reactions and mobility (Li 2022). The ring particle surfaces are in addition continually gardened by particle collisions and meteoritic impacts. Because of these loss processes, the current fractional pollution provides only a lower limit on the total integrated pollution flux, and thus a lower limit for the ring age. Two independent analyses of Cassini UVIS spectra of Saturn’s rings give fractional pollution in the outer B ring of 2-3%. This provides a lower limit of 400 to 1600 million years for the most opaque parts of Saturn’s B ring, depending on whether we use the maximum or minimum values for the bombardment rate reported by Cassini CDA (Kempf 2023). The A and C rings, as well as other ring structures, may be younger, having formed more recently.
Present-day crustal deformation of the Caucasus and Northern Iran constrained by InSAR time series  
Authors: Bayramov Zaur , Viltres Renier , Doubre Cecile , Maggi Alessia , Masson Frederic , Zamani Behzad , Doin Marie-Pierre
Published: March 2024

The Caucasus and Northern Iran lie within the central part of the Alpine-Himalayan belt, where the Arabian and Eurasian plates started colliding over 100 My ago and caused the building of mountain chains associated with complex tectonics, including transform faulting systems. The region contains many tectonic features including the EW-trending Greater Caucasus and the NW-trending Lesser Caucasus thrust belt separated by the Kura basin. In the southern part of the region, the tectonics are complicated by the Anatolia-Eurasia-Arabia triple junction and the northern end of the Talysh and Alborz thrust belts. There have been several destructive earthquakes in the region, including the Shamakhi earthquake sequences in 1667(8) and 1902 at the junction of the controversial and mostly a-seismic West-Caspian Fault and the Eastern Greater Caucasus and the 1721 and 1780 earthquakes on the North Tabriz fault in NW Iran. Investigations of the few publicly available seismic catalogs of the region have been insufficient to understand the seismo-tectonic behavior of the regional structures due to sparse existing seismic networks. To better characterize the active structures in the Caucasus and  Northern Iran we produced  regional-scale mean line-of-sight velocity maps and time-series of the surface displacement from the north-eastern Caucasus to northern Iran. To obtain this dataset we performed Synthetic Aperture Radar interferometry using the NSBAS processing (Doin et al., 2011) of Sentinel-1 images along both ascending and descending tracks for 9-years (2015 to 2023). Main processing steps (such as atmospheric correction, multilooking and filtering) were applied to counter biases and loss of coherence due to the snow and vegetation coverage in the Greater Caucasus mountains. We produced two regional-scale interseismic velocity maps that highlight crustal motions of the large-scale tectonic structures. Moreover, we have identified coseismic deformation due to the 5.2 ml Shamakhi earthquake in the SE Caucasus mountains (Feb. 2019), the 5.9 Mw Torkamanchay earthquake in the Bozgush mountains of NW Iran (Nov. 2019), and possible aseismic strike-slip along the West Caspian fault after the large seismic events in Türkiye in February, 2023. Our results can also be used to study the local deformation of mud volcanoes in the Eastern part of Azerbaijan.
Urban energy futures: Unraveling the dynamics of city-scale building energy use and CO2 emissions under mid-century scenarios
Authors: Wang Chenghao , Reyna Janet , Horsey Henry , Jackson Robert
Published: March 2024

Residential and commercial buildings jointly account for 39% of energy consumption and 28% of greenhouse gas emissions in the U.S. In densely populated urban areas, the share of energy use and emissions attributable to buildings can be even higher. The future evolution of building energy use and associated carbon emissions is uncertain, with potentially substantial variations in climate conditions, socioeconomic development, and power sector trajectories; accounting for these in future projections is often compounded by limited data availability and resolution of conventional modeling approaches. To address these challenges, in this study, we employed a bottom-up, high-resolution modeling approach and evaluated city-scale building energy consumption and CO2 emissions across 277 urban areas in the U.S. under various mid-21st century scenarios. Our findings reveal substantial spatial and temporal variations in future changes in building energy use and CO2 emissions among U.S. cities under a variety of climate, socioeconomic, and power sector evolution scenarios. On average, a 1°C warming at the city scale projects a 13.8% increase in building energy use intensity for cooling, accompanied by an approximately 11% decrease in energy use intensity for heating, albeit with notable spatial disparities. Collectively, driven by global warming and socioeconomic development, mid-century city-level building energy use is projected to rise on average by 17.5–39.8% under all scenarios except for SSP3-7.0 when compared with the last decade. In contrast, city-level building CO2 emissions are projected to decrease in most urban areas (averaging from 10.6% to 66.0% under different scenarios), with spatial variations primarily influenced by climate change and power sector decarbonization.
Assessing Argentina's Heatwave Dynamics (1950-2022): A Comprehensive Analysis of Temporal and Spatial variability using ERA5-LAND 
Authors: Cimolai Caterina , Aguilar Enric , Skrynyk Oleg
Published: March 2024

In the context of climate change, the escalation of temperature extremes and the persistence of heatwaves have become subjects of growing concern. This study examines Argentina's heatwave patterns from 1950 to 2022, using the ERA5-LAND dataset. The use of this dataset allows for a detailed exploration with high spatial resolution (0.1° x 0.1°) and temporal precision, facilitating regional analyses in countries with vast territories, such as Argentina. The investigation focuses on analyzing temporal and spatial variations through four key metrics: heatwave duration, frequency, mean, and maximum temperature. It also explores seasonal disparities, distinguishing between the Warm Season (WS) and Cold Season (CS), and delves into the influence of the ENSO cold and warm phases (La Niña,El Niño). We use 2-meter temperature data on an hourly basis to calculate daily maximum (Tx) and minimum (Tn) temperatures and detect heatwaves. Our findings reveal an overall escalation in heatwaves across the majority of Argentine regions. Southern Patagonia and the Northwest emerge as hotspots with the most significant upward trends in heatwave metrics, while the Litoral region (Northeast) experiences noteworthy increases, particularly in its northern areas. Conversely, the South of Buenos Aires province (Central region) exhibits decreasing trends in specific areas. Specifically, for Tn, the Warm Season (WS) highlights more significant positive trends in heatwave metrics in most regions, with South Patagonia and the Northwest consistently displaying increases in all metrics. However, for Tx, positive significant trends are observed in both Warm and Cold Seasons, with the North West registering increases in all metrics except Cold Season intensity. Furthermore, the study identifies variations in heatwave occurrences during El Niño and La Niña phases. La Niña events contribute to an increased heatwave frequency across all regions, as evidenced by Tn and Tx metrics. In Patagonia, La Niña amplifies all studied heatwave metrics for both temperature variables. Conversely, during El Niño months, heatwave intensities increase nationwide, excluding Patagonia. This comprehensive research contributes to existing knowledge by providing a detailed, high spatial resolution understanding of heatwave behavior, offering invaluable insights for adapting to extreme temperature events like heatwaves. 

Key words: extreme events, ERA5-LAND, reanalysis 
Estimation of Venus' atmospheric density through EnVision precise orbit determination
Authors: Gargiulo Anna Maria , Genova Antonio , Petricca Flavio , Del Vecchio Edoardo , Andolfo Simone , Torrini Tommaso , Rosenblatt Pascal , Lebonnois Sébastien , Marty Jean-Charles , Dumoulin Caroline
Published: March 2024

EnVision radio science investigation will deepen our understanding of Venus’ gravity, interior structure and atmospheric properties. To address these scientific questions, a two-way link communication (configuration X/X/Ka-band) is established with the ESA ESTRACK ground stations enabling precise orbit determination (POD) during the science phase. An accurate modeling of the spacecraft’s dynamics, including the atmospheric drag acceleration, is key for retrieving EnVision’s trajectory and constraining Venus’ gravity field, tides and orientation parameters.Dedicated radio occultation campaigns are designed to characterize electron density profiles in the ionosphere and atmospheric density, pressure and temperature in the mesosphere and upper troposphere of Venus. Furthermore, an accurate POD of the spacecraft also provides complementary information on the atmospheric density at the altitudes crossed by the probe, extending the science return of the EnVision mission.The atmospheric drag perturbation strongly affects spacecraft trajectories that are characterized by a pericenter altitude above Venus’ surface of less than 220 km. By accounting for different Venus’ atmospheric models, e.g., the Venus Climate Database (VCD) and the Venus Global Reference Atmospheric Model (Venus-GRAM), we investigate the impact of potential errors and uncertainties in the predicted atmospheric properties on the orbit evolution of the spacecraft. We note significant inconsistencies between Venus’ atmospheric models at the spacecraft altitudes including atmospheric density differences of more than 200%. These discrepancies may be representative of the current knowledge of Venus’ upper atmosphere and thermosphere. Thus, we carried out a perturbative analysis of the dynamical forces by introducing a mismodeling in the atmospheric density profiles. We assumed the VCD for the simulation of the radio tracking measurements and we included as a priori model in the estimation process the Venus-GRAM. By developing a batch sequential filter that adjusts a set of atmospheric density scale factors, we compensated for the mismodeling and improved the quality of the dynamical model and of the orbit determination. The proposed approach enables an estimation of the atmospheric density at the spacecraft altitudes with an accuracy of 25% and accuracies in the orbit reconstruction of 1-2 m, 30-40 m and 20-30 m in the radial, transverse and normal directions.
Archeomagnetic study at low latitude - North Atlantic Ocean (Fogo Island, Cabo Verde Archipelago)
Authors: Silva Pedro , Ramalho Ricardo , Madeira José , Moreira Mário , Mata João , Brum Silveira António , Foiada Silvia
Published: March 2024

The recovery of the secular variation of the Earth's magnetic field in places of low latitude and in volcanic oceanic islands is crucial for the development of more precise models. Fogo Island (Lat. N14º57’; Long. W24º20’) in the Cabo-Verde Archipelago (Atlantic Ocean) is formed by a major conical and asymmetrical Quaternary strato-volcano with a summit depression (Chã das Caldeiras). It presents itself as a good object of study given its geographical position and frequency of eruptive events, 28 since 1460 A.D.. Accordingly, around Chã das Caldeiras and the east flank of the island, were sampled for paleomagnetic purposes 40 historical and prehistorical lava flows, representing 55 sampling sites. Rock magnetic and petrographic analyses reveal as main magnetic carriers several phases of the titanomagnetite solid solution without visible effects of alteration, as expected for such young basaltic rocks and semi-arid climate. The anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility ellipsoid is low and no effect in the paleomagnetic directions is observed. Thermal and alternating field demagnetizations were successful, retrieving well clustered mean characteristic remanent magnetizations (ChRM) directions. In a first instance twelve ChRM of lava flows previously mapped as historical were compared with known models of secular variation, revealing that nine are in close agreement with the suspected ages while the remaining three failed that concordance, corresponding to prehistoric eruptions. Moreover, it is possible to verify that ChRM of prehistoric lava flows closely follow known secular variation curves showing a small and consistent angular difference. Therefore, such results contribute for a better constraint of the volcano stratigraphy of this island and supply new paleomagnetic directions needed to improve the accuracy of secular variation models.This research has been funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDB/50019/2020), UIDP/50019/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/UIDP/50019/2020) and LA/P/0068/2020 (https://doi.org/10.54499/LA/P/0068/2020). This work is a contribution to projects REGENA (Ref. PTDC /GEO-FIQ/3648/2012) and GEMMA (Ref. PTDC/CTA-GEO/2083/2021).
Probabilistic assessment of extreme fire risk under the impact of climate change
Authors: Liu Zhongwei , Eden Jonathan , Dieppois Bastien , Drobyshev Igor , Conradie Stefaan , Gallo Carolina , Blackett Matthew , Parker Robert
Published: March 2024

As major natural hazards, wildfires pose a significant risk to many parts of the world. The occurrence of extensive fires in both hemispheres in recent years has raised important questions about the extent to which the changing nature of such incidents can be attributed to human-induced climate change. Offering reliable answers to these questions is essential for communicating risk and increasing resilience to major wildfires. However, the scarcity of wildfire attribution studies, combined with limited observational records and the complexity of representing fires by different models, poses a challenge in establishing robust and unified conclusions to better inform future forest management strategies.Here, a globally applicable framework is developed to better understand and quantify how wildfire risk is responding to a changing climate. The framework is based on an empirical-statistical methodology, facilitating its application to ’fire weather’ extremes from both observational records and the latest generation of global climate model ensembles (e.g. from CMIP/UKESM). Particular attention is given to the sensitivity of the eventual findings to the spatial scale of the event, the chosen event definition and the climate model(s) used in the analysis. As part of a global analysis, a series of maps are constructed detailing the change in likelihood of fire weather extremes, defined by both intensity and duration, throughout the world’s fire-prone regions as a result of rising global temperatures. Both observation- and model-based analyses reveal an increase in likelihood of at least twofold across many parts of the world, with considerable regional and inter-model variation. The value of the framework is demonstrated by combining results from a series of case studies of recent high-impact wildfires that differ by scale, duration and location. The conclusions drawn from this work provide a platform to guide future analysis of fire weather events and facilitate reliable recommendations for responding to the hazards associated with wildfires, and enhancing resilience in the face of climate change.
Discrete fracture network modelling of multiphysics processes in fractured media for geoenergy applications
Authors: Lei Qinghua
Published: March 2024

Fractures such as joints and faults are prevalent discontinuity features in the Earth’s crust, forming hierarchical networks in the subsurface and controlling the bulk behaviour of geological media. They play an important role in various multiphysical processes such as stress transfer, pressure diffusion, heat transport, earthquake generation, wave scattering, and chemical dissolution, which are crucial for many geoenergy applications ranging from geothermal energy exploitation and critical mineral extraction to nuclear waste disposal and underground hydrogen storage. Thus, it is of central importance to advance our capability of realistically representing these ubiquitous discontinuity features and further accurately modelling the associated seismo-thermo-hydro-mechanical processes. Over the past years, I have established a powerful fractured media simulation platform based on the discrete fracture network concept to simulate coupled multiphysical processes in fractured rocks. The model can explicitly represent the distribution of a large number of fractures in both 2D and 3D space as well as accurately compute their multiphysical responses/interactions over both space and time domains. No a priori assumption about the representative elementary volume is needed, rendering this approach as an appropriate tool to study hierarchical fractured rocks that may have no characteristic length scale. Using this modelling paradigm, diverse macroscopic phenomena in fractured media can be captured as emergent properties physically arising from the collective behaviour of numerous existing/growing fractures and interacting rock blocks. This multiphysics modelling framework can serve as a useful tool to bridge experimentally-established constitutive relationships of fracture/rock samples at the laboratory scale to phenomenologically-observed macroscopic properties of fractured geological formations at the site scale. A series of case studies are presented, where high-fidelity multiphysics simulations are combined with high-quality laboratory measurements and/or high-resolution field observations to address different geoenergy-related problems. The research findings and insights obtained have important implications for understanding and predicting the behaviour of fractured rocks for safe and sustainable geoenergy development.
Using satellite remote sensing to evaluate and calibrate hydrological monitoring in Norway
Authors: Widforss Aron , Andreassen Liss Marie , Are Antonsen Yngve , Blumentrath Stefan , Fossli Gjersø Niklas , Kolberg Sjur Anders , Müller Karsten , Orthe Nils Kristian , Saloranta Tuomo , Havstad Winsvold Solveig , Verpe Engeset Rune
Published: March 2024

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) is responsible for operating the Varsom forecasting service issuing forecasts covering a number of natural hazards in Norway, including flooding, avalanches and lake ice coverage. Additionally, NVE is monitoring glacier lakes that have a risk for glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs). This responsibility requires multi-modal data gathering, ranging from permanent hydrological stations and field observers digging snow pits, to analysis of country-wide satellite-borne radar and optical imaging.In this study we demonstrate how satellite remote sensing allow us to detect hazardous events and monitor hydrological conditions. Our infrastructure utilizes publicly available satellite data from Copernicus. We process the data  through a central platform built on Apache Airflow for job monitoring, GRASS and Actinia for spatial processing and Docker for parallelization. Using this platform we have built a number of products that identifies and digitizes objects, as well as time series analysis of various hydrological data. The platform can output these products to existing public datasets, like the Norwegian national landslide and avalanche database, as well as to purpose-built solutions, like our time-series database, which will make spatially aggregated time series publicly available.Examples of using satellite data operationally include automated detection of avalanches making it possible to validate the details of a published avalanche bulletin of a high avalanche danger episode in the spring of 2023. Snow coverage monitoring of important watersheds during the same period allowed us to get confidence in the validity of our models and resulting assessment of the risk of melting season floodings.In addition to use cases where satellite observations give us complementary information, we use the data in areas where there is few or no other available source of information. The best example of this is the monitoring of formation and drainage of glacier lakes, where optical imaging and manual digitizing has been the go-to solution for a long time. We are now developing automated products using Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 data to aid mapping and monitoringThe satellite products produced at NVE provide richer information of snow, ice and hydrologic condtitions. Products are being made publicly available.
Disagreements among current-generation global urban estimates across scales
Authors: Chakraborty Tirthankar , Venter Zander , Zhao Lei , Demuzere Matthias , Zhan Wenfeng , Gao Jin , Qian Yun
Published: March 2024

The rise in high-resolution satellite technology and computational advancements has enabled the development of global urban land cover datasets, crucial for understanding climate risks in our increasingly urbanizing world. Here, we analyze urbanization patterns across spatiotemporal scales from several such widely used current-generation datasets and find substantial discrepancies in percentage of urban land influenced by differing urban definitions and methodologies. Despite these inconsistencies, the datasets show a rapidly urbanizing world, with global urban land nearly tripling between 1985 and 2015. We also discuss the implications of these inconsistencies for several use cases, including for monitoring urban climate impacts, such as localized urban warming and urban flood risks, and for modeling urbanization and its influence on weather and climate from regional to global scales. Our results demonstrate the importance of choosing application-appropriate datasets for examining specific aspects of historical, present, and future urbanization with potential implications for informing sustainable development, resource allocation, and quantifying climate impacts.
Operational Space Weather Modelling in the Bergen-Imperial Global Geospace (BIGG) Project
Authors: LaMoury Adrian , Heyns Mike , Eastwood Jonathan , Kwagala Norah , Hagen Jon-Thøger
Published: March 2024

In order to better safeguard society and infrastructure from space weather hazards, improved forecasting capabilities are required. To maximise the efficiency of mitigation strategies, forecasting products must not only be accurate, but also timely and tailored to end-user needs. For understanding and predicting the behaviour of the near-Earth space environment in changing solar wind conditions, physics-based modelling is extremely powerful, though often comes at considerable computational expense. The Bergen-Imperial Global Geospace (BIGG) project is an ongoing collaborative effort to provide new space weather forecasting capabilities to the ESA space weather service network via the use of two 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) magnetosphere models, GorgonOps and the Space Weather Modelling Framework (SWMF). Solar wind observations as measured in situ at L1 will be continuously and automatically ingested as simulation inputs, with minimal human intervention. Both models have been optimised such that they are able to run in faster than real time, using only modest computational resources, delivering bespoke forecasting products to the end-user community via a web portal and API in a timely fashion. This multi-model approach will provide forecast diversity and redundancy to ensure continuous and reliable service provision to Europe and beyond.
Inter-Calibration of Solar Orbiter’s Heavy Ion Sensor and Suprathermal Ion Spectrograph
Authors: Alterman Benjamin , Allen Robert , Dewey Ryan , Livi Stefano , Raines Jim , Lepri Susan , Spitzer Sarah , Bert Chris , Owen Christopher , Ho George , Galvin Antoinette , Kistler Lynn , Allegrini Frederic , Ogasawara Keiichi , Wurz Peter , Philips Mark , D'Amicis Raffaella , Mason Glen , Wimmer-Schweingruber Robert F. , Rodriquez-Pacheco Javier
Published: March 2024

The distribution of charged particles in the heliosphere covers more than 16 orders of magnitude in particle flux and more than 6 orders of magnitude in energy. While the majority of these particles are ionized hydrogen (protons) and fully ionized helium (alpha particles), heavier ions are also present. Because of the large parameter space that must be covered, different instruments are required and these instruments must be optimized to specific energy and particle flux ranges. They must also be designed to target specific ion species. To properly characterize the means by which different energy ranges are populated, the observations from these different instruments must be intercalibrated.We present initial progress intercalibrating observations from Solar Orbiter’s Heavy Ion Sensor (HIS) and Suprathermal Ion Spectrograph (SIS). HIS is a heavy ion composition experiment that targets the solar wind through the low energy range of suprathermal energies with mass and charge state resolution. SIS covers the suprathermal and low range energetic particles with high mass resolution but without charge state resolution. Together, these two sensors cover heavy ion composition from solar wind to suprathermal energies. During advantageous conditions, proton distributions across both instruments are also available. Properly intercalibrated observations across these instruments enable studies of charged particle energization across the energy ranges, which is essential for characterizing a wide range of phenomena in heliosphere.
Unfulfilled promises? Investigating the impact of the Belo Monte hydropower dam on water, energy, and food access in the Brazilian Amazon
Authors: Cavallini Johansen Igor , F. Moran Emilio
Published: March 2024

Recent hydropower developments in Brazil were accompanied by promises to enhance the quality of life for the local population residing near the construction site of dams. To convince both locals and the broader national and international audience, the argument often centered around the hydropower project being an unparalleled opportunity to elevate deprived populations to a "developed" status, marked by significantly improved living standards. Our study aims to analyze how the residents of the medium-sized town of Altamira in the Brazilian Amazon perceive the impacts of Belo Monte, the country's second-largest hydropower dam built between 2011 and 2015, on fundamental resources—specifically, water, energy, and food. Additionally, we seek to examine how this perception varies based on sociodemographic characteristics such as age, gender, income, civil status, local or migrant status, ethnicity, and education. We will also explore the spatial distribution of these perceptions within the urban area. Our data consist of a survey based on a probabilistic sample of 500 households conducted across 10 census tracts (50 interviews per tract) in July 2022. Interviews were conducted with the head of the household or another household member aged 18 or over. Eligibility for survey participation required residency in the urban area of Altamira during and after the dam construction. Regarding the impact of Belo Monte on water system provision improvements, our findings suggest that over 59% of respondents indicated a negative impact or no impact. Furthermore, 86.8% of households reported a negative impact on energy prices, indicating that the dam did not contribute to increased energy access; in fact, it had the opposite effect. Lastly, 61% of the sample expressed negative impacts on food, citing high prices during construction that persisted even after completion. Our study also revealed that resettled populations in the urban area of Altamira faced more challenges in accessing water provision, experiencing more shortages compared to the rest of the population (χ² = 25.6401, p-value < 0.05). Additionally, resettled populations perceived energy prices more negatively than the population as a whole (χ² = 9.0392, p-value < 0.05). Our study employs statistical modeling and spatial analysis to investigate the disparities in these perceptions, examining how costs and benefits are unevenly distributed across the socio-spatial landscape, potentially exacerbating existing local inequalities. We advocate for essential interventions aimed at alleviating these disparities, such as subsidizing access to water, energy, and food for the residents of Altamira. Additionally, we provide insights into the unintended consequences of hydropower dam construction, especially in the Global South, where there is a substantial surge in the development of this energy source.
The RADiation Impacts on Climate and Atmospheric Loss Satellite (RADICALS) Mission
Authors: Ozeke Louis , Mann Ian , Cully Christopher , Milling David , Lipsett Michael , Ranking Robert , McWilliams Kathryn , Fiori Robyn , Cullen David , Fedosejevs Robert , Enno Greg , Zee Robert , Conners Martin , Ward William , Olifer Leonid , Marshall Robert , Barona David , Yau Andrew , Howarth Andrew
Published: March 2024

The RADiation Impacts on Climate and Atmospheric Loss Satellite (RADICALS) is a low-Earth orbiting Canadian small satellite mission investigating the transport of space radiation into the atmosphere, and its impact on Earth’s climate. Scheduled for launch in late 2026, the mission will launch into a polar orbit with an integrated payload comprising two back-to-back look direction High Energy Particle (HEP) telescopes, an X-Ray Imager (XRI) to remote sense energetic particle precipitation using back-scattered Bremsstrahlung X-rays, and a boom mounted FluxGate Magnetometer (FGM) and Search Coil Magnetometer (SCM). Using an innovative Thomson spin-stabilized configuration, the satellite will sample the pitch angle distributions in the spin-plane twice per spin. The back-to-back HEP look directions allow for a contemporaneous view of the down-going and back-scattered up-going electrons, at the same time as XRI remote-senses the related Bremsstrahlung, and the magnetometers provide in-situ magnetic signatures of a range of plasma waves. The key measurement of the pitch angle resolved energetic electron precipitation (EEP) and related back-scatter, including a resolved loss cone, will allow a detailed assessment of the energetic particle energy input to the atmosphere. Measurements of EEP, in addition to measurements of solar energetic particle (SEP) precipitation, will represent a critical data set for assessing the role of space radiation in the climate system, for example through the catalytic destruction of ozone in the middle atmosphere by NOx and HOx. Accurately quantifying the impacts of this space radiation on climate requires accurate and loss cone-resolved characterization of the flux of these precipitating energetic particles for inclusion into whole atmosphere models. The RADICALS explorer will also enable research into potentially catastrophic space-weather radiation effects on satellite infrastructure, and assess impacts on space weather-related interruptions to high frequency radio communications including in relation to aircraft operations in polar regions. Additional cube- and micro-satellite missions, together with the RADICALS, could form a powerful mini--constellation exploring the space weather-climate system.