bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Analysis of Longitudinal Data with Non-Ignorable Non-Monotone Missing Values
Authors: Troxel Andrea B. , Harrington David P. , Lipsitz Stuart R.
Published: March 2003

A full likelihood method is proposed to analyse continuous longitudinal data with non-ignorable (informative) missing values and non-monotone patterns. The problem arose in a breast cancer clinical trial where repeated assessments of quality of life were collected: patients rated their coping ability during and after treatment. We allow the missingness probabilities to depend on unobserved responses, and we use a multivariate normal model for the outcomes. A first-order Markov dependence structure for the responses is a natural choice and facilitates the construction of the likelihood; estimates are obtained via the Nelder–Mead simplex algorithm. Computations are difficult and become intractable with more than three or four assessments. Applying the method to the quality-of-life data results in easily interpretable estimates, confirms the suspicion that the data are non-ignorably missing and highlights the likely bias of standard methods. Although treatment comparisons are not affected here, the methods are useful for obtaining unbiased means and estimating trends over time.
Modelling the Effect of Subject-Specific Covariates in Paired Comparison Studies with an Application to University Rankings
Authors: Dittrich R. , Hatzinger R. , Katzenbeisser W.
Published: March 2003

Preference decisions will usually depend on the characteristics of both the judges and the objects being judged. In the analysis of paired comparison data concerning European universities and students’ characteristics, it is demonstrated how to incorporate subject-specific information into Bradley–Terry-type models. Using this information it is shown that preferences for universities and therefore university rankings are dramatically different for different groups of students. A log-linear representation of a generalized Bradley–Terry model is specified which allows simultaneous modelling of subject- and object-specific covariates and interactions between them. A further advantage of this approach is that standard software for fitting log-linear models, such as GLIM, can be used.
Random Regression Models for Human Immunodeficiency Virus Ribonucleic Acid Data Subject to Left Censoring and Informative Drop-Outs
Authors: Lyles Robert H. , Lyles Cynthia M. , Taylor Douglas J.
Published: March 2003

Objectives in many longitudinal studies of individuals infected with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) include the estimation of population average trajectories of HIV ribonucleic acid (RNA) over time and tests for differences in trajectory across subgroups. Special features that are often inherent in the underlying data include a tendency for some HIV RNA levels to be below an assay detection limit, and for individuals with high initial levels or high ranges of change to drop out of the study early because of illness or death. We develop a likelihood for the observed data that incorporates both of these features. Informative drop-outs are handled by means of an approach previously published by Schluchter. Using data from the HIV Epidemiology Research Study, we implement a maximum likelihood procedure to estimate initial HIV RNA levels and slopes within a population, compare these parameters across subgroups of HIV-infected women and illustrate the importance of appropriate treatment of left censoring and informative drop-outs. We also assess model assumptions and consider the prediction of random intercepts and slopes in this setting. The results suggest that marked bias in estimates of fixed effects, variance components and standard errors in the analysis of HIV RNA data might be avoided by the use of methods like those illustrated.
Two Ways of Modelling Overdispersion in Non-Normal Data
Authors: Lee Y. , Nelder J. A.
Published: March 2003

For non-normal data assumed to have distributions, such as the Poisson distribution, which have an a priori dispersion parameter, there are two ways of modelling overdispersion: by a quasi-likelihood approach or with a random-effect model. The two approaches yield different variance functions for the response, which may be distinguishable if adequate data are available. The epilepsy data of Thall and Vail and the fabric data of Bissell are used to exemplify the ideas.
Bayesian Inference for Generalized Additive Mixed Models Based on Markov Random Field Priors
Authors: Fahrmeir Ludwig , Lang Stefan
Published: March 2003

Most regression problems in practice require flexible semiparametric forms of the predictor for modelling the dependence of responses on covariates. Moreover, it is often necessary to add random effects accounting for overdispersion caused by unobserved heterogeneity or for correlation in longitudinal or spatial data. We present a unified approach for Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation in generalized additive and semiparametric mixed models. Different types of covariates, such as the usual covariates with fixed effects, metrical covariates with non-linear effects, unstructured random effects, trend and seasonal components in longitudinal data and spatial covariates, are all treated within the same general framework by assigning appropriate Markov random field priors with different forms and degrees of smoothness. We applied the approach in several case-studies and consulting cases, showing that the methods are also computationally feasible in problems with many covariates and large data sets. In this paper, we choose two typical applications.
A note on the corrected Akaike information criterion for threshold autoregressive models
Authors: Wong C. S. , Li W. K.
Published: March 2003

A bias‐corrected Akaike information criterion AICC is derived for self‐exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. The small sample properties of the Akaike information criteria (AIC, AICC) and the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) are studied using simulation experiments. It is suggested that AICC performs much better than AIC and BIC in small samples and should be put in routine usage.
The Use of Aggregate Time Series in Testing for Gaussianity
Authors: TELES PAULO , WEI WILLIAM W. S.
Published: March 2003

Many time series encountered in practice are non‐Gaussian. Because of the process of data collection or the practice or researchers, time series used in analysis and modelling are frequently temporal aggregates. In this paper, we study the effects of the use of aggregate time series on testing for Gaussianity. We analyse how the test statistic is affected by aggregation and how that affects the power of the test. The results show that the use of aggregate time series induces Gaussianity and that the degree of inducement increases with the order of aggregation. In fact, the use of aggregate time series reduces the power of the test, although the effect is not significant for low orders of aggregation.
Growth, Trade and Factor Endowment: A Survey
Authors: Scandizzo Pasquale Lucio
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the relationship between factor endowment, human capital formation and trade in the theory of economic growth. The paper analyses the evolution of the idea that both trade and human capital play a leading role in explaining country performance and development. Economic growth, dynamic comparative advantage, international specialization and cumulative technological progress are identified as the key ingredients that explain why countries perform differently and, at the same time, why they may tend to converge towards a common benchmark.
Social Increasing Returns and the Effects of Immigration on the Host Country Economy
Authors: Carillo Maria , Vinci Concetto
Published: March 2003

In this paper we analyse the impact of both the number of immigrants and their human capital on the welfare of the host economy. We will show that in the presence of ‘social increasing returns’ in human and physical capital accumulation, arising from a labour market characterized by a costly search and by randomness of the matching technology, immigrants’ skill level may influence the investments in human capital of natives as well as the investments in physical capital. We will find that the immigrants’ human capital interacts with social increasing returns making them stronger or weaker according to the level of immigrants’ human capital relative to that of natives. If immigrants have a higher level of human capital, increasing returns are accelerated, while if immigrants’ human capital is lower, increasing returns are weakened if not reversed. The consequence of this behaviour is that in the first case immigration has a positive impact on native welfare and there is a positive interrelation between the skills of natives, the skills of immigrants and the firms’ level of physical capital. In the second case immigration may have a negative impact on the welfare of natives, on the skills of native workers and on the physical capital of firms.
Identifying Demand and Supply of Part‐time Jobs Using Personnel Data. An Application to Italy
Authors: Colombino Ugo , Di Tommaso Maria Laura
Published: March 2003

The percentage of part‐time workers in Italy is very low compared with most European countries. In this paper we try to contribute to an explanation. We use data on the employees of a large Italian company operating in the service sector, and apply a particular econometric framework that allows identification of potential demand and supply. We find that demand and supply are potentially very large on average, but they are difficult to match at the individual worker/job level. The firm might observe a relevant employee’s characteristics that are positively correlated with the employee’s propensity to a part‐time job but are negatively correlated with the profitability of that employee on that job. The firm might also use the revealed willingness to switch to a part‐time job as a sign that the employee is likely to be unprofitable for the company.
Wage Dynamics and Unemployment in Germany: Evidence from Regional Panel Data
Authors: Pannenberg Markus , Schwarze Johannes
Published: March 2003

A stylized fact of empirical work on the relationship of wages and unemployment using macro data for European countries is a combination of strong autocorrelation of wages and a significant negative long‐run relationship of wages and unemployment. However, this view is challenged by empirical work relying on regional or micro data providing evidence for an instantaneous adjustment of wages to variations in the level of unemployment. Exploiting regional panel data for West Germany, we show that, at least for the years 1990–94, regional and macro data mirror the same phenomenon. Our results are broadly consistent with the observed increase in the natural rate of unemployment in Germany.
Metacognitive and Language‐Specific Knowledge in Native and Foreign Language Reading Comprehension: An Empirical Study Among Dutch Students in Grades 6, 8 and 10
Authors: Schoonen Rob , Hulstijn Jan , Bossers Bart
Published: March 2003

This article gives the results of a study among 685 students in grades 6, 8 and 10 in the Netherlands to whom we administered grade‐appropriate measures of reading comprehension and vocabulary knowledge in their native language (NL), Dutch, as well as, in grades 8 and 10, in English as a foreign language (EFL). All students answered the same questionnaire on (4 components of) metacognitive knowledge of reading. The aim was to explore the relative contributions to NL and FL reading comprehension of a language‐specific predictor (vocabulary knowledge) and of general metacognitive knowledge. Results of analyses of covariance structure show that metacognitive knowledge was not entirely implicated in vocabulary knowledge. For older students (grades 8 and 10), metacognitive knowledge appeared to play a significant role in both NL and FL reading comprehension. These findings suggest that, in the educational setting investigated, poorer students in grades 6 to 8, not having spontaneously acquired metacognitive knowledge of reading, stand a good chance of profiting from instruction in this type of knowledge. Furthermore, we found evidence for the so‐called threshold hypothesis, according to which (metacognitive) knowledge of reading strategies, reading goals and text characteristics cannot compensate for a lack of language‐specific knowledge if the latter remains below a certain threshold level. The limited FL knowledge “short‐circuits” the transfer of reading skills to the FL.
The Effects of Speaking Rate on Listener Evaluations of Native and Foreign‐Accented Speech
Authors: Munro Murray J. , Derwing Tracey M.
Published: March 2003

This study tested the hypothesis that accented speech heard at a reduced rate would sound less accented and more comprehensible than speech produced at a normal rate. In 2 experiments, English native‐speaker listeners rated a passage read by 10 high‐proficiency Mandarin learners of English. In the first experiment, 20 listeners evaluated passages read slowly as more accented and less comprehensible than normal‐rate passages. In the second experiment, in which a computer modified speaking rates, 20 new listeners preferred some speeded passages, but none of the slowed ones. Overall, the findings suggest that although native listeners may prefer to hear accented speech at slower rates, a general speaking strategy of slowing down may not help second language learners.
Explaining the “Natural Order of L2 Morpheme Acquisition” in English: A Meta‐analysis of Multiple Determinants
Authors: Goldschneider Jennifer M. , DeKeyser Robert M.
Published: March 2003

Some researchers have posited a &;ldquo;natural&;rdquo; order of acquisition of English grammatical morphemes common to all learners of English as a second language, but no single cause has been shown for this phenomenon. This meta‐analysis investigated whether a combination of five determinants (perceptual salience, semantic complexity, morphophonological regularity, syntactic category, and frequency) accounts for a large part of the total variance found in acquisition order. Oral production data from 12 studies over almost 25 years, together involving 924 subjects, were pooled. Multiple regression analysis showed that a very large portion of the total variance in acquisition order is explained by the combination of the five determinants. We suggest research on other potential contributing factors and discuss the need for similar research in other languages.
Sex and Age Effects on Willingness to Communicate, Anxiety, Perceived Competence, and L2 Motivation Among Junior High School French Immersion Students
Authors: MacIntyre Peter D. , Baker Susan C. , Clément Richard , Donovan Leslie A.
Published: March 2003

The present study involves a cross–sectional investigation of second–language (L2) communication among students in a junior high French late immersion program. The effects of language, sex, and grade on willingness to communicate (WTC), anxiety, and perceived communication competence, on frequency of communication in French, and on the attitude and motivation variables are examined globally and at each grade level. It was found that students’ L2 WTC, perceived competence, and frequency of communication in French increased from grades 7 to 8 and was maintained between grades 8 and 9, despite a drop in motivation between grades 7 and 8 and a steady level of anxiety across the three grades.
New Institutionalism and Naturalism in Socio‐Legal Analysis: Institutionalist Approaches to Regulatory Decision Making
Authors: Black Julia
Published: March 2003

Through drawing on the work particularly of sociological and organizational theorists socio‐legal work has added considerably to an understanding of the uses of law and discretion, and shown the contingency of the operation of law on the economic, political and organizational context. Some important questions still remain unanswered, however. In particular, if in decision making law is not determinative, but rather decisions are shaped by other bureaucratic or organizational norms, political and economic pressures and an individual's own world views and interests, what role does law play? Further, what impact does the decision process, in which different norms or considerations all bear, have on law? In starting to answer these questions the article examines the models of decision processes and decision behavior which underly the different new institutionalist analyses, and suggests that whilst they provide some insights, they have their own limits.
An Examination of the Denver Drug Court: The Impact of a Treatment‐Oriented Drug‐Offender System
Authors: Granfield Robert , Eby Cynthia , Brewster Thomas
Published: March 2003

This paper reports on a retrospective study of the Denver Drug Court that was conducted to assess the court’s impact on court processing, treatment matching, and offender recidivism. A sample of 300 offenders from the Denver Drug Court and drug offenders from two previous years prior to the drug court was obtained. Quasi‐experimental procedures were used to examine differences in measured variables across each offender cohort. Data for this study were collected from court records as well as through on‐line arrest records. This paper begins with an exploration of the organizational framework of the Denver Drug Court and the court’s related treatment options. It also examines the extant literature on the effectiveness of drug courts. Analysis of the data indicates that the Denver Drug Court has reduced case processing time and it has slightly reduced the amount of time offenders spend in presentence confinement. Unlike previous studies of drug courts, this study attempted to examine the court’s ability to match offenders to treatment needs. Analysis of the available data, although limited, suggests that offenders are being matched to appropriate levels of treatment. Finally, data analysis indicates no significant differences in revocation or rearrest rates. This article concludes with a discussion of the controversial nature of drug courts. Directions for future research are offered.
Developing Sentencing Guidelines in Massachusetts: A Work in Progress
Authors: Carney Francis
Published: March 2003

Sentencing guidelines legislation is currently under consideration by the Massachusetts legislature. This paper discusses the process used by the Massachusetts Sentencing Commission in formulating the sentencing guidelines legislation. The conceptual model and key substantive considerations associated with the sentencing guidelines are summarized, with special attention to two salient issues – intermediate sanctions and mandatory sentencing and their relationship to the sentencing guidelines. The paper concludes with a discussion of the reactions to the guidelines legislation and the prospects for passage.
Taking the Law Into Our Own Hands: Structured Sentencing, Fear of Violence, and Citizen Initiatives in Washington State
Authors: Steiger John
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the impact of citizen initiatives on Washington State’s system of structured sentencing. Criminal justice sentencing guidelines were implemented in Washington’s juvenile court system in 1978 and in its adult felony courts in 1984. In the twenty years since, both systems have experienced significant changes, many of which impact judicial and administrative discretion. Early modifications to the guidelines were driven by legislative and administrative concerns (budgeting, prison population management). More recent changes have been driven by citizen initiatives fostered as a response to public fear of crime and violence. Increasingly, the public has rejected the advice and management of adult sentencing guidelines by criminal justice professionals, and taken a direct hand through the initiative process in setting the limits of judicial and administrative discretion. As a result, structured sentencing has become more complicated and less internally consistent. It remains unclear whether this is the inevitable price of growth in single issue politics and more direct public involvement in the determination of sentencing policy
Beyond Sentencing Guidelines: Additional Functions for Intermediate Sentencing Entities
Authors: Shane‐Dubow Sandra
Published: March 2003

The first part of this two‐part special issue on structured sentencing in the U.S. focused on individual jurisdictions and the relationship of five types of sentencing reforms to judicial discretion and to the political and legal forces that originated, maintained, altered or sometimes ended the reform. This issue moves the focus to a comparative one, looking across a variety of different jurisdictions to report common threads of advantage and disadvantage to the various structured sentencing systems. Originating in political and legal arenas, structured sentencing affects not only the sentencing process, but can itself affect the political process and the distribution of sanctioning discretion among the different branches of government.
Modeling Discretion in American Sentencing Systems
Authors: Reitz Kevin
Published: March 2003

Sentencing structures in American jurisdictions have become extraordinarily diverse in the past twenty‐five years. Any one punishment structure, such as the federal sentencing guidelines system, the guidelines system of a particular state, or the indeterminate sentencing plan still followed in many states, contains layers of complexity and a multiplicity of decision makers who hold discretion over sentencing outcomes. Increasingly, conceptual tools are needed to analyze and evaluate the similarities and differences across many systems. The author develops basic theoretical tools to describe the building blocks of various up‐and‐running sentencing structures, with close attention to the permutations of discretions that add up to define sentencing outcomes. Such basic conceptual tools can facilitate observations about single systems and can enable comparative analyses of numerous systems. Further, the author suggests that there are both descriptive and normative principles that can be applied to the structural machinery of sentencing systems. With increasing experience, we are learning that some such innovations work better than others.
Sentencing Commissions as Centers for Policy Analysis and Research: Illustrations from the Budget Process
Authors: Hunt Kim
Published: March 2003

Sentencing commissions have become centers for policy analysis and research, studying the problems of prison crowding and resource limits (Reitz 1997). However, more information is needed regarding how commissions perform this function. This paper focuses on the role of sentencing commissions as centers of policy analysis during state budget processes. Also discussed is an important stage for policy research, the evaluation of alternative policies by means of computer simulation, a modeling tool frequently employed by sentencing commissions. Following a discussion of computer simulation principles, several prominent simulation models used by sentencing commissions are reviewed. Finally, the activities of Virginia’s sentencing commission demonstrate how commissions serve as policy research centers.
Let Specificity, Clarity, and Parsimony of Purpose Be Our Guide
Authors: Smith Michael
Published: March 2003

The decisional rules embedded in presumptive guideline grids have achieved some of their drafters' objectives, but fall short of a ``rule of law'' for sentencing – a paramount goal of the sentencing reforms Marvin Frankel set in motion twenty‐five years ago. The rule of law requires a reasoning process that moves from penal purpose to penal measure, by fair inference from relevant facts. Two‐dimensional grid guideline schemes gain simplicity by reducing relevant facts to two – current offense and prior record. Even when judges are permitted to consider other facts, the presumptive guideline methodology obscures differences in the penal purposes sentencers ought to have in mind for cases falling into the same cell of a grid. In contrast, the rule of law requires fact‐finding in the individual case, to reveal such differences and to test the plausibility of available penal measures. This elevates the relevance of offender characteristics and circumstances, including some that are held ordinarily irrelevant in the federal scheme and are of uncertain relevance in many state schemes. While this is most obvious when use of noncustodial penal measures is subjected to the rule of law, it is no less important when imprisonment is used. Disparate impacts should be avoided by more sophisticated deployment of correctional authority and resources, not by constriction of the rule of law governing the sentencing decision itself.
A Tale of Two Laws: The U.S. Congress Confronts Habeas Corpus Petitions and Section 1983 Lawsuits
Authors: Cheesman Fred , Hanson Roger , Ostrom Brian
Published: March 2003

Actions by state prisoners have comprised a large and growing body of litigation in the U.S. federal courts over the past thirty years. State prisoners can challenge the validity of their state trial court convictions (habeas corpus petitions) and the constitutionality of the conditions of their confinement to state prisons and jails (Section 1983 lawsuits). Currently, one out of every five civil cases filed in the federal system is brought by a jail or prison inmate.

When in the past did these cases begin to arise? What is the present trend? What does the future hold concerning the number of cases likely to be filed?

These questions are at the heart of the current research. Care is needed in addressing these queries because it is neither easy nor obvious to know what propels the volume of litigation. Moreover, the future is especially difficult to predict in light of recent legislation adopted by the United States Congress to limit the number of habeas corpus petitions and the number of Section 1983 lawsuits filed each year.

The unique contribution of the current research is threefold. First, an improved methodology is used to describe past patterns and to forecast future trends. Simply stated, prisoner litigation is hypothesized to be related to the number of prisoners. As the number of prisoners increases, the volume of litigation increases proportionately. What is not obvious about this relationship is that it has persisted over the past decades despite substantial changes in legal doctrines designed to affect the filing of the litigation. Second, the effects of two major congressional actions passed in 1996 to limit prisoner litigation are examined and assessed for their success in achieving their intended objectives. The first of these, the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act, which sought to restrict habeas corpus petitions, is judged to have virtually no impact. The second piece of legislation, the Prisoner Litigation Reform Act, which sought to curtail lawsuits against correctional officials, appears to have lowered the volume of litigation in the short‐term, but has not disrupted the underlying link between the number of prisoners and the number of lawsuits. Finally, estimates are made of the future volume of litigation and the corresponding number of federal judges needed to resolve prisoner litigation. These estimates have the advantage of being based on significant statistical relationships and accounting for the effects of recent congressional action.
Reconsidering Styles of Regulatory Enforcement: Patterns in Danish Agro‐Environmental Inspection
Authors: May Peter , Winter Soren
Published: March 2003

This study addresses enforcement styles of regulatory inspectors, based on an examination of the municipal enforcement of agro‐environmental policies in Denmark. Our findings make three contributions to the regulatory literature. One contribution is to add empirical support for theorizing about inspectors’ enforcement styles as consisting of multiple components, rather than a single continuum. We show that inspectors’ enforcement styles comprise the degree of formalism and the degree of coercion that they exercise when carrying out inspections. A second contribution is in showing the relationship of different types of enforcement styles to the two underlying dimensions of the concept. A third contribution is an examination of the ways in which inspectors’ enforcement styles relate to their enforcement actions. The consistency of our findings with those of other studies suggests that the dimensions and types of inspectors’ enforcement styles that we observed in Denmark can be generalized to other settings.
Legislating School Crisis Response: Good Policy or Just Good Politics?
Authors: Pagliocca Pauline M. , Nickerson Amanda B.
Published: March 2003

Over the past decade, a growing number of schools have responded to students’ safety and mental health needs following campus violence and other crises. More recently, policymakers have joined this trend, proposing legislation requiring schools to establish crisis response programs. This paper provides an overview of crisis response initiatives implemented by school districts following traumatic events, including school violence. It then examines recent state legislation and other policies, followed by a discussion of the advisability of such mandates, given the scant research and evaluation of school crisis response to date.
Interest Groups in the Israeli High Court of Justice: Measuring Success in Litigation and in Out‐of‐Court Settlements
Authors: Dotan Yoav , Hofnung Menachem
Published: March 2003

The question of whether and to what extent interest groups are more successful than other parties in litigation is the subject of many debates among social scientists. Previous works in the field concentrated on checking outcomes of cases that were disposed of by courts in officially published final decisions. We sought to analyze not only final court decisions but also the outcomes of out‐of‐court settlements. Drawing from Marc Galanter’s hypothesis that groups, especially those who are “repeat players,” are likely to use out‐of‐court settlements more often and more efficiently than other litigants (Galanter 1974), we measured actual case outcomes of petitions brought before the Israeli High Court of Justice. We found that groups in general, and “repeat player” groups in particular, achieved a success rate significantly higher than other litigants. We also found that the relative advantage of groups in litigation is the result of their ability to reach out‐of‐court settlements with government agencies.
Chaotic Behaviour in a Simple Model of Inflation
Authors: Chappell David
Published: March 2003

A simple model of inflation is proposed. The model is set in discrete time and consists of a demand for money equation, a government budget constraint and two alternative mechanisms for the formation of expectations of the inflation rate—adaptive expectations and rational expectations. It is shown that when expectations are adaptive the model can exhibit chaotic behaviour for a range of plausible parameter values, but with rational expectations chaotic behaviour is not possible.
Fiscal Policy and the Maastricht Solvency Criteria
Authors: Barrell Ray , Sefton James
Published: March 2003

In this paper we examine the implications of fiscal policy and growing debt stocks for the economy. We construct an extended Mundell–Fleming model, along the lines of Buiter and Miller (“Monetary Policy and International Competitiveness: the Problems of Adjustment”, Oxford Economic Papers, Vol. 33 (1981), Supplement, pp. 143–175), that allows us to investigate the effects of fiscal policy and debt accumulation on an open economy. In order to analyse the implications of fiscal restrictions such as the Maastricht convergence criteria, we undertake some policy analyses on our estimated model NiGEM. This model closely resembles the theoretical construct in its long‐run structure, but allows for crucial differences in the speed of dynamic responses in a number of markets. We find that, although in the long term the level of activity is unaffected, the fiscal restrictions will reduce output and raise unemployment in the short to medium term.
The Evolution of U.K. Self‐Employment: A Study of Government Policy and the Role of the Macroeconomy
Authors: Cowling Marc , Mitchell Peter
Published: March 2003

This paper reports the findings of a time series analysis exploring the fundamental determinants of the substantial rise in U.K. self‐employment over the period 1972–92. The key findings are that the self‐employed/wage‐employed income differential has a high and positive effect upon the proportion of the workforce in self‐employment, supporting alternative wage theories of labour market status, as does housing wealth, supporting credit‐rationing theories. Perhaps the most interesting feature concerns the relationship between unemployment and self‐employment. On this we find that it is the duration structure of unemployment that matters, not simply the stock of unemployed people. This evidence may imply that self‐employment is a last resort for certain individuals marginalized in the employed sector and facing lengthy spells of unemployment.
John Elliot Cairnes and the ‘Rehabilitation’ of the Classical Wage Fund Doctrine
Authors: Donoghue Mark
Published: March 2003

John Elliot Cairnes is primarily remembered for his defence of the classical wage fund doctrine, and for his attempt to revive the classical system of economic thought in the mid‐1870s. In contrast with this standard textbook appraisal of Cairnes, the Jevons–Marshall–Vint thesis contends that, in attempting to revitalize the doctrine, Cairnes in fact explained away so much of what characterized it that its final form bore little resemblance to the doctrine held by his classical predecessors. In this paper we dispute the Jevons–Marshall–Vint thesis and argue that Cairnes’s recasting of the doctrine did fit entirely within the classical framework. Why Cairnes should have rallied in support of a doctrine by then widely condemned, partly because of Mill’s alleged retraction of it and partly because of newly emerging ideas on wages and unions, is not difficult to explain. The recurring economic stagnation in Ireland, which acted as a bulwark against industrialization there, together with the social, moral and economic dilemma created by the growth of trade unionism in Britain, presented political economists with a particular set of problems. For these, as Cairnes saw it, classical political economy, as a coherent method of analysis, provided the best hope of showing the way towards possible remedies.
Detecting Seasonal Unit Roots: an Approach Based on the Sample Autocorrelation Function
Authors: Taylor A. M. Robert , Leybourne Stephen J.
Published: March 2003

In this paper we suggest a new and consistent procedure designed to test for the presence of unit roots in quarterly time series, be they at the zero or seasonal frequencies. For each frequency the proposed statistic is based on the correlogram of a transformation (which removes unit roots that may exist at frequencies other than that of interest) of the residuals from a regression of the observed series on relevant deterministic components. Each statistic is proportional to the maximum lag length for which the residual autocorrelations at all lower lag lengths are strictly positive. Critical values for each test statistic are calculated using Monte Carlo simulation assuming a seasonal random walk data‐generation process (DGP). The robustness properties of each statistic to different integrated DGPs are examined along with their respective power characteristics. These simulations indicate that the procedure suggested in this paper provides a useful complement to the set of test statistics proposed by Hylleberg et al. (‘Seasonal integration and cointegration’, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 44 (1990), pp. 215–238).
Stability of Production Prices: A Modification to the Full‐Cost Approach
Authors: Borissov Kirill
Published: March 2003

An approach to the problem of the stability of production prices generalizing the full‐cost approach is proposed. It is based on comparing current profit rates with a target level: if the current profit rate in a sector is lower (higher) than the target level, the price of the product of this sector increases (decreases). It is proved that this leads to stability of the production prices in two models with fixed capital. In the first model, it is assumed that we are given a nominal wage rate and that the target profit rate is formed exogenously. In the second model, we are implicitly given a real wage rate and the target profit rate is formed endogenously.
Owner‐Occupation at the Margin?: Tenure Choice Among Public Sector Tenants Since 1980
Authors: McNabb Robert , Wass Victoria
Published: March 2003

In this paper we examine tenure decisions of public sector tenants following the Housing Act of 1980 which gave tenants the right to buy their property and a substantial discount on the purchase price. Tenure choice is found to be determined by the household budget constraint, life‐cycle characteristics and the quality of both the accommodation and the match between the household and the property, and is in many respects comparable with tenure choice in the private sector. As such, tenure transfers under the ‘right to buy’ initiative are efficient, undertaken by public sector tenants on the margin of owner‐occupation.
A Production Function with an Inferior Input
Authors: Epstein Gil S. , Spiegel Uriel
Published: March 2003

The expanding car industry has revealed an increase in the use of robots and machines together with a decrease in labor. This phenomenon refocuses attention on the possible existence of labor as an inferior input with robots as rival technical alternatives. In our paper we suggest a specific production function that allows for inferior inputs. We verify the general conditions that have been developed in past research.
Absenteeism in the UK: A Comparison Across Genders
Authors: Bridges Sarah , Mumford Karen
Published: March 2003

We analyse an empirical model of absence from work based upon a variant of the traditional work–leisure model of labour supply. The model is tested with data from the 1993 UK Family Expenditure Survey and a comparison of absenteeism is made across genders. We find substantial differences in the probability of absenteeism across gender and various family situations. We also find that our conclusions concerning gender differences in absenteeism are sensitive to the definition of absenteeism used and that the differences in the determination of these measures may help to explain some of the existing disagreements in the literature.
How is Investment Financed? A Study of Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States
Authors: Corbett Jenny , Jenkinson Tim
Published: March 2003

The aims of this paper are, first, to construct a consistent comparative set of data on the sources of finance for investment over the period 1970–94 for the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany and Japan, and, second, to challenge conventional views of the international differences in financing patterns. We find that there is little evidence to support the view that Germany is a “bank‐financed” system nor that the United Kingdom or the United States are “market financed”. Whilst bank finance is more important in Japan, there has been a steady decline in the proportion of investment financed by banks over the last 25 years.
Contingent Claims and Market Completeness in a Stochastic Volatility Model
Authors: Romano Marc , Touzi Nizar
Published: March 2003

In an incomplete market framework, contingent claims are of particular interest since they improve the market efficiency. This paper addresses the problem of market completeness when trading in contingent claims is allowed. We extend recent results by Bajeux and Rochet (1996) in a stochastic volatility model to the case where the asset price and its volatility variations are correlated. We also relate the ability of a given contingent claim to complete the market to the convexity of its price function in the current asset price. This allows us to state our results for general contingent claims by examining the convexity of their “admissible arbitrage prices.”
Complete Models with Stochastic Volatility
Authors: Hobson David G. , Rogers L. C. G.
Published: March 2003

The paper proposes an original class of models for the continuous‐time price process of a financial security with nonconstant volatility. The idea is to define instantaneous volatility in terms of exponentially weighted moments of historic log‐price. The instantaneous volatility is therefore driven by the same stochastic factors as the price process, so that, unlike many other models of nonconstant volatility, it is not necessary to introduce additional sources of randomness. Thus the market is complete and there are unique, preference‐independent options prices.

We find a partial differential equation for the price of a European call option. Smiles and skews are found in the resulting plots of implied volatility.
On Models of Default Risk
Authors: Elliott R. J. , Jeanblanc M. , Yor M.
Published: March 2003

We first discuss some mathematical tools used to compute the intensity of a single jump process, in its canonical filtration. In the second part, we try to clarify the meaning of default and the links between the default time, the asset's filtration, and the intensity of the default time. We finally discuss some examples.
Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Selection: Multiperiod Mean‐Variance Formulation
Authors: Li Duan , Ng Wan‐Lung
Published: March 2003

The mean‐variance formulation by Markowitz in the 1950s paved a foundation for modern portfolio selection analysis in a single period. This paper considers an analytical optimal solution to the mean‐variance formulation in multiperiod portfolio selection. Specifically, analytical optimal portfolio policy and analytical expression of the mean‐variance efficient frontier are derived in this paper for the multiperiod mean‐variance formulation. An efficient algorithm is also proposed for finding an optimal portfolio policy to maximize a utility function of the expected value and the variance of the terminal wealth.
Style in Philosophy: Part I
Authors: Frank Manfred
Published: March 2003

In this article, I attempt to restore the philosophical significance of that nonformalizable, noniterable, “singular’ element of natural language that I call “style.” I begin by critically addressing the exclusion of such instances of natural language by both semantics‐oriented logical analysis and a restricted variation of structuralist linguistics. Despite the obvious advantages – with regard to style – of ”pragmatic“approaches to language, such pragmatism merely returns to rule‐determination in the guise of “normativity.” Although style by definition resists any kind of rule‐determination – whether posed in terms of semantics or intersubjective regulations of speech‐acts – there can be no consideration of language that ignores the persistence of style in natural language. In terms of cognition, any discursive agent understands more than allowed by either semantics or speech‐act theory. I ascribe this element of excessive signification to the role of style. My principal thesis is twofold: (1) a hermeneutic approach (exemplified by Schleiermacher) to literature should reveal the heuristically decisive role played by style in philosophy; and, more radically still, (2) style, in fact, may be crucially determinative of philosophical discourse in general. I suggest that a closer scrutiny of the lesser‐known works of Ludwig Wittgenstein, conventionally regarded as having dreamt of a “philosophy without style,” may consolidate the restoration of style's philosophical import.
Style in Philosophy: Parts II and III
Authors: Frank Manfred
Published: March 2003

The essential task of the philosophy of style is to uncover the irreducibility of the singular to any kind of universal, static structure or metalinguistic code. Style is not only a surplus element that exceeds propositional meaning, but also a clue of the ineradicable contingency of “intersubjective”‐communicational relationships. The receiver must respect the unique individuality of the sender's style as what demonstrates the cognitive inexhaustibility of the world. Consequently, philosophy can no longer regard literature as foreign and incorrigible by asserting a radical difference of genre and thereby reserving truth exclusively for itself. Rather, I go on to argue, the difference is merely one of quantity. The picture of the world drawn by literature is simply fuller and richer than any comparatively monochromatic system of philosophical propositions. However, within the history of philosophy, there have been instances when the philosophical import of literature has been accorded its due. One example is the dialogical approach of early German Romanticism. The other example is a writer most frequently considered the purest thinker of philosophical sense and meaning – namely, Ludwig Wittgenstein. I conclude by reading Wittgenstein as a philosopher concerned, above all, with the ineffable that style reveals.
Agents of Justice
Authors: O'Neill Onora
Published: March 2003

Accounts of international or global justice often focus primarily on the rights or goods to be enjoyed by all human beings, rather than on the obligations that will realise and secure those rights and goods, or on the agents and agencies for whose action obligations of justice are to be prescriptive. In the background of these approaches to international or global justice there are often implicit assumptions that the primary agents of justice are states, and that all other agents and agencies are secondary agents of justice, whose main contribution to justice will be achieved by conforming to the just requirements of states. This background picture runs into difficulties when states are either unjust or weak. The problems posed by unjust states have been widely noted, but the distinctive problems weak states create are less commonly discussed. In this paper I shall consider some reasons for and against viewing states as primary agents of justice, and will focus in particular on the importance of recognising the contribution to justice that other agents and agencies can make when states are weak.
Heterogeneous Capital in a Two‐Sector Overlapping‐Generations Model
Authors: Farmer Karl
Published: March 2003

In a seminal paper Galor (1992) investigated the equilibrium dynamics of the well‐known neoclassical two‐sector growth models of the sixties within an overlapping‐generations (OLG) model of the Samuelson (1958)‐‐Diamond (1965) type. In accordance with the aggregative structure of these neoclassical growth models Galor assumed two production sectors and only one homogeneous capital good. This paper utilises the techniques which Galor developed for the homogeneous capital case in order to analyse the equilibrium dynamics of a two‐sector OLG model with heterogeneous capital and static price expectations of agents. The temporary and intertemporal equilibrium characteristics of this model structure are then applied to the inconclusive Filippi (1980)‐‐Morishima (1980) controversy over the logical consistency of Morishima's (1977) reformulation of Walras' capital theory.
Measuring Effort
Authors: Skott Peter
Published: March 2003

Efficiency‐wage theory has been criticized recently for its treatment of “effort”. According to Currie and Steedman (Metroeconomica, 1993), effort is an ordinal variable, and ordinality implies that some standard assumptions become meaningless. This criticism is unfounded. The numerical representation of effort must be consistent with the specifications of the production function and workers' preferences. As long as this requirement is met, the results of the analysis are independent of the choice of representation.