bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A new urban parameterization for the ICON atmospheric model: first results over Italy
Authors: Campanale Angelo , Adinolfi Marianna , Raffa Mario , Mercogliano Paola , Schulz Jan-Peter
Published: July 2023

The increase in the resolution of atmospheric models for numerical weather prediction and climate simulations allows for a more accurate description of the physical processes at urban scale. Furthermore, a common trend is occurring in most countries: the number of people living in towns keeps on growing remarkably, therefore it becomes increasingly important to study the living conditions in urban or metropolitan areas under demographic and climate change.
In these scenarios, the interest in properly modelling the physical processes in urban areas has gained wide attention in the research community. In particular, the convection-permitting atmospheric models, associated with urban parameterizations, are able to resolve the heterogeneity of cities with applications to heat stress assessment and the development of urban climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. In this perspective, a bulk urban canopy parameterization, TERRA_URB, has been developed for the multi-layer land surface scheme of the COSMO regional atmospheric model. This parameterization has already demonstrated to be able to accurately describe the overall properties of urban areas and to correctly reproduce the prominent urban meteorological characteristics for different European cities. Thus, in the framework of the transition from the COSMO model to the new Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) Weather and Climate regional model, TERRA_URB needs to be implemented in ICON.
In this work, we present the results for TERRA_URB in ICON-LAM (the limited area model version), for some cities of the Italian peninsula at a mesh size of 2 km. At this stage of the implementation, although further investigations in calibration and in the use of more realistic urban canopy parameters are needed, the preliminary results are really encouraging, since some urban key features are already properly represented, such as urban heat island and urban dry island phenomena. The comparison of these results with available observations is promising. Therefore, this work provides strong evidences regarding the added value of TERRA_URB to ICON in modelling the complex urban canopy interaction processes with the atmosphere.
Future trends of near-surface winds over the southwestern South Atlantic in two regional climate models
Authors: Machado Crespo Natália , Pillar da Silva Natália , de Camargo Ricardo , Porfírio da Rocha Rosmeri
Published: July 2023

Monitoring near-surface winds near coastal areas is really important since it affects not only the population living nearby but also the energetic sector, such as oil and wind power industries. As an effort to understand the future wind trends in a changing climate, this study presents results from the project Western South Atlantic Climate Experiment for the middle of the century (2031 to 2060); here, future projections of near-surface winds and their extremes over the western South Atlantic are evaluated from regional dynamic downscaling by using two distinct models (WRF and RegCM4) forced by two global climate models (HadGEM2-ES and MPI-ESM-MR) under the worse RCP8.5 warming scenario. In general, the trends show a slight decrease of 0.1 to 0.3 m/s in the mean wind speed for both models over the southwestern South Atlantic adjacent to the continent (between 25º and 35ºS in RegCM4 and 15º and 25ºS in WRF). For the extremes the decrease is amplified, reaching 0.5 m/s; the only exception occurs for WRF forced by HadGEM2, in which there is no trend signal southern 25ºS. For the present climate, WRF and RegCM4 have opposite wind speed biases over the South Atlantic, which propagates to the ocean waves simulation, especially for the extremes. Therefore, in order to reduce the bias propagation, an adjustment of the upper-quantiles of the wind speed (i.e. the extremes) was applied to the present climate simulated winds, which showed an improvement for intense wind speeds. After bias corrections, the future trends of wind speed are also explored.
High-resolution precipitation monitoring in the WegenerNet 3D Open-Air Laboratory for Climate Change Research
Authors: Kvas Andreas , Fuchsberger Jürgen , Kirchengast Gottfried , Galovic Robert , Scheidl Daniel , Bichler Christoph
Published: July 2023

The WegenerNet 3D Open-Air Laboratory provides a unique setup for studying extreme meteorological events such as heavy precipitation, hailstorms, droughts, and heat waves. Its instrumentation consisting of a polarimetric X-band Doppler weather radar, a microwave radiometer for vertical profiling of temperature, humidity, and cloud liquid water, an infrared cloud structure radiometer, and a water-vapor-mapping GNSS station network enables the comprehensive monitoring of precipitation events with high spatial- and temporal resolution in near real-time. These sensors complement the high-density WegenerNet hydrometeorological station network, comprised of 156 stations measuring temperature, humidity, precipitation, and (at selected locations) surface winds and soil parameters within a core area of 22 km x 16 km centered near the city of Feldbach (46.93°N, 15.90°E), in southeastern Austria. Partial redundancies within this measurement setup enable cross evaluation, calibration and quality control for robust observations and derived data products. The 3D extension of the WegenerNet has been operational in the current configuration since mid-2021, providing a consistent and growing data record of two years.
We present a preliminary version of data products derived from the WegenerNet 3D Open-Air Laboratory aimed at studying precipitation events. This includes gauge-calibrated radar-derived precipitation with 500 meters spatial resolution and 2.5-minute time resolution at multiple altitude levels, cloud coverage and base height with 10-minute resolution, profiles of temperature, humidity, liquid water content, and stability indices with 10-minute resolution, GNSS- and radiometer-derived tropospheric delays and water vapor content with 2.5-minute to 15-minute resolution. These data products, accompanying metadata and uncertainty estimates will be made available in the form of user-friendly data cubes. Additionally, quality-controlled observation data, such as radar reflectivities and differential phase measurements, GNSS tropospheric delays and gradients, and observed infrared and microwave brightness temperatures will also be made available to the scientific community.
RODEO Project – bringing more European meteorological data open for all users
Authors: Huuskonen Minna , McCairns Willie
Published: July 2023

The RODEO project responds to the requirements of the EU Directive (2019/1024) on Open Data and the Reuse of Public-sector Information and its Implementing Regulation in order to boost the re-use and combination of open public data across the EU. The Implementing Regulation defines High Value Datasets (HVD) for six thematic categories of public data of which weather observation data, climate data, warnings, weather radar data and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) data are defined as meteorological High Value Datasets. These HVDs shall be shared free of charge, under the conditions of the Creative Commons BY 4.0 licence or a less restrictive open licence, and will be openly accessible via Application Programming Interfaces (APIs), machine-readable and bulk downloadable.  

The three-year RODEO project is a joint effort by 11 European meteorological institutions, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the network of 31 European National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, EUMETNET. The project strengthens the capacity of the European meteorological data providers by  

Developing a user interface and a data catalogue for making data discoverable; 
Developing APIs, by using open licences, for accessing weather observation data, climate data, weather radar data, warnings, and AI datasets; 
Engaging with the data owners and user communities; and 
Supporting the deployment of national data portals and APIs.
Implementing a comprehensive user engagement strategy involving

A Project External Advisory Board, composed of public and private sector partners
Frequent communications updates through several channels 

The project contributes not only to the overall EU and Digital Europe Programme (DEP) objectives but also to objectives of the global meteorological community. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Unified Data Policy commits WMO Member Nations to supporting free and open exchange of meteorological data. The RODEO project builds upon the WMO and EUMETNET long-term plans for exchange of meteorological data under the WMO Information System 2.0 (WIS 2.0) and an existing EUMETNET design for a shared federated data infrastructure.  

Vastly increasing the European-wide real-time meteorological data available for the public, business, and other governmental institutions opens business opportunities for several sectors and application areas. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) will benefit from the greater data availability by creating new digital products and services and eventually attract new investors. Data will also support research and better-informed policymaking, especially in actions mitigating climate change. Overall, better data availability leads to better warnings, forecasts, and services to the public and weather-critical industries which contributes to the safe and efficient functioning of society with multiple benefits across the European economy, industry, and society. 
Assessment of thermal indices for the operational evaluation of thermal conditions in Athens, Greece
Authors: Pantavou Katerina , Lagouvardos Kostas , Kotroni Vassiliki
Published: July 2023

Thermal indices are valuable tools for assessing thermal environments linked to applications related to architecture, planning, tourism, energy conservation and health. They combine meteorological variables into a single value which can be assigned to a category of an assessment scale expressing the predicted degree of human thermal discomfort, sensation or stress. The assessment scales include one indifference (neutral) category and negative and/or positive categories of increasing intensity of thermal feeling. The numerous indices that have been developed makes the selection of a suitable one for a specific application a complex issue. The aim of this study was to assess the effectiveness of several commonly used thermal indices for their operational use in weather applications in the Mediterranean climate of Greece. Hourly data (2010-2021) of air temperature (Tair, oC), relative humidity (Rh, %), wind speed (WS, m/s) and global solar radiation (SR, W/m2) recorded in 15 weather stations across the Athens metropolitan area of the Automatic Weather Stations Network of the National Observatory of Athens were used to calculate the indices. The indices should follow the following criteria: (a) be currently in common use, (b) be easily estimated operationally, i.e., short estimation time using Tair, Rh, WS and SR, and (c) provide exploitable results. Apparent temperature (AT), Heat Index (HI), Humidex (HU), Normal Effective Temperature (NET), Physiologically Equivalent Temperature (PET), Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) and Wind Chill Index (WCI) were identified as the most commonly used thermal indices in research and by weather services around the world. PET showed the highest computational demand compared to the other indices. At the first step, NET, PET and UTCI were assessed as more suitable for the climate of Athens (compared to AT, HI, HU, WBGT and WCI), extending their predictions to the entire range of their assessment scales. NET and PET tended to classify more often than UTCI thermal conditions in the negative categories of their assessment scales (67.8%-NET and 62.1%-PET versus 36.8%-UTCI; p<0.001) while most of UTCI values were classified in the neutral category (48.9%-UTCI versus 15.6%-NET and 15.1%-PET; p<0.001). Finally, more heat wave days were classified in accordance to Tair by NET (86.8%) and UTCI (84.5%) compared to PET (70.5%; p=0.014). According to the results of this study, NET and UTCI could be suggested as the best candidate indices for operational use in the climate of Athens, Greece.
Climate change perception in the Natural Space of Sierra Nevada
Authors: Cepeda-Ventura Luna , Romero-Jiménez Emilio , García-Valdecasas-Ojeda Matilde , Castro-Díez Yolanda , Gámiz-Fortis Sonia Raquel , Esteban-Parra María Jesús
Published: July 2023

Mountains constitute hot spots of the effects of climate change. Their orography creates climate gradients in short distances, which makes them especially vulnerable to rising temperatures. For this reason, mountains are considered observatories where the first effects of climate change can be seen. They also possess a great biodiversity in reduced areas due to species evolving in partial isolation. An alteration of these ecosystems has diverse consequences for the mountain populations and downstream regions that benefit from their water supply and ecosystem services.
Sierra Nevada is a mountain range located in the south of the Iberian Peninsula which has a double climate change hot spot condition by being in the Mediterranean. Sierra Nevada is a protected area with Natural Park and National Park status, which together constitute the Natural Space of Sierra Nevada. It is considered a privileged zone for the early detection of the effects of global change.
Climate change is a topic of discussion that is getting more attention and awareness on recent years, and the perception of its risks by communities and individuals is related to their ability to respond and adapt. This study shows the results of a survey whose purpose was to assess how the inhabitants of the Natural Space of Sierra Nevada and people who visit it frequently experiment and adapt to climate change and what opinions do they have about this topic. The survey had an online format and was sent by email to different associations, entities, mountain clubs and researchers in the region. The questions referred exclusively to the Natural Space, and the parameters that were evaluated were the concern about climate change, the adaptation strategies taken, the perception of vulnerability, the changes perceived and experimented and opinions about the responsibilities in mitigating climate change and about the quality of the information they have about climate change in the region.
 
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This research was financed by the project “Thematic Center on Mountain Ecosystem & Remote sensing, Deep learning-AI e-Services University of Granada-SierraNevada”(LifeWatch-2019-10-UGR-01), which has been co-funded by the Ministry of Science and Innovation through the FEDER funds from the Spanish Pluriregional Operational Program2014-2020 (POPE), LifeWatch-ERIC action line and co-financed by the Provincial Council of Granada, , the project P20_00035 funded by FEDER/Junta de Andalucía-Consejería de Transformación Económica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades, and by the project PID2021-126401OB-I00 funded by MCIN/AEI/ 10.13039/501100011033/FEDER Una manera de hacer Europa.
Integrating meteorological dependent variability of wind and solar power for resilient power systems
Authors: Saint-Drenan Yves-Marie , Assoumou Edi , Haykal Rita
Published: July 2023

To mitigate and adapt to the ongoing climate change, the decarbonization of the economy requires a radical change in our energy production and consumption patterns. A robust finding of existing studies is that renewable energy sources - and more specifically wind and solar power generation - are expected to represent a major share of the power mix in the future. Due to their higher dependency on meteorological variable a better understanding of the variability of VRE outputs across different temporal and geographical scales thus becomes critical. Of particular interest is the study of tight grid conditions with periods of coincidence between low wind and solar output because they will condition flexibility requirements.
Our work addresses these research questions based on an analysis of the variability of solar PV and wind power generation capacity factors provided by the Copernicus service C3S energy. The Copernicus C3S energy service deals with the transformation of climate variables (reanalysis, seasonal forecast and climate projection) into energy variables (wind, PV, hydro and energy demand principally). To take into consideration the dependance between the solar and wind resource the combined variability has been evaluated for different wind to PV share. In addition, the coupling of different kind of storage technologies has been anticipated by evaluating the variability on different time scales ranging from hour to month. Finally, focusing on extreme conditions, the results of the variability analysis was synthesized in a couple of boundary conditions that capture the impact of the meteorological variability on estimated joint wind and solar power output. The added value of the proposed methodology will be illustrated for a simple case in France.
Drought generation processes in Europe: variability in space and time
Authors: Brunner Manuela Irene , Van Loon Anne F. , Götte Jonas
Published: July 2023

Hydrological droughts are generated by different processes including precipitation deficits, snowmelt deficits, or positive evapotranspiration anomalies, and various combinations of these factors. In this talk, we discuss how the importance of different hydro-meteorological driver sequences varies in space over Europe and the Alps, in time over the last five decades, and by event magnitude, i.e. for moderate and severe droughts. To study variations in drought generation processes, we developed an automated classification scheme for streamflow drought events, which assigns events to one of eight drought event types - each characterized by a set of single or compounding drivers. Our results show that (1) drought events caused by rainfall deficits are most common in Western Europe and events caused by abnormally low temperature in the snow season in Eastern & Northern Europe; (2) temporal changes in both drought intensity, deficit, duration, and generation processes are stronger in high elevation catchments than in low-elevation ones; (3) in high-elevation catchments, snowmelt-deficit-induced droughts became more frequent over the past 50 years, which led to increases in drought deficits; and (4) moderate droughts are mainly driven by rainfall deficits while severe events are mainly driven by snowmelt deficits. We conclude that climate impact assessments on droughts can profit from assessing changes in drought generation processes to improve the understanding of how drought magnitudes are changing in a warming world.
ICA&D – The platform to collate meteorological datasets and provide climate services.
Authors: van der Schee Marlies , van der Besselaar Else , van der Schrier Gerard , Jepsen Lisa-Anne , Ransom Claire , Baddour Omar , Allen Teddy , Van Meerbeeck Cédric , Suwondo Aris , Songoti Henri
Published: July 2023

Historical climate data is fundamental for understanding local climate trends and extremes, and evaluating the impact of climate change on agriculture, food security and water resources. The data can be used for implementing adaptation measures for protecting lives and adapting socio-economic sectors to the changing climate conditions. While global climate trends can already be assessed with available data, regional data disparities result in blind-spots for climate change assessments and services—particularly for areas which are the most vulnerable. Coordination between countries is vital, since weather and climate phenomena often span country borders.
To contribute to filling this gap, International Climate Assessment & Dataset (ICA&D), with support from the EU-funded ClimSA Programme, is being extended to the climate-vulnerable areas of the Caribbean, the Pacific and in 5 sub-regions in Africa. ICA&D will be managed in each ClimSA sub-region by a WMO Regional Climate Centre (RCC)/proposed RCC. ICA&D stores for each sub-region validated daily precipitation and temperature series collected from the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in that region. It provides an accessible, web-based mean to collect, prepare, quality control, and analyze the meteorological data. The ICA&D workflow was developed over 25 years ago by the Meteorological Service of the Netherlands (KNMI) as the backbone of the European WMO data-node of the RCC and implemented in Southeast Asia by meteorological service of Indonesia (BMKG).
WMO and KNMI are presently collaborating  to expand ICA&D to two pilot regions, the Caribbean (caribbean.icad-wmo.org) and West-Africa (west-africa.icad-wmo.org). The collaboration has led to setting up new websites which are designed to be user friendly and highly cyber secure. The websites, one for each region, consist of information platforms, including a geographical map with the locations of the stations’ datasets, a feature to quickly plot timeseries from derived data and an e-learning module on the website’s functions. The data sharing policy ensures that access to raw observational data from each NMHS remain restricted while allowing derived indices to be accessed by the public. With support from ClimSA, WMO and KNMI are facilitating the discussion on sharing meteorological observations.
The hundred-year series of weather-related fatalities in the Czech Republic: Interaction of climate, environment and society
Authors: Brazdil Rudolf , Chromá Kateřina , Dolák Lukáš , Zahradníček Pavel , Řehoř Jan , Dobrovolný Petr , Řezníčková Ladislava
Published: July 2023

Severe weather patterns may directly cause or influence deadly events during various human activities, particularly in the context of recent climate change. The paper investigates weather-related fatalities over the territory of the Czech Republic in the 1921–2020 period. The unique database, created from documentary evidence (particularly newspapers), includes for each deadly event besides weather event also a set of information concerning of the fatality itself and related circumstances. Totally 2,729 detected fatalities during 100 years were associated to weather categories frost (38%), convective storm (19%), flood (17%), fog (11%), snow and glaze ice (8%), windstorm (5%) and other inclement weather (2%). For each individual category a detailed analysis was done. Fatalities, extending over the whole country, had a main maximum in the winter (January) and secondary in the summer (July), corresponding to the occurrence of extreme weather. Deaths were interpreted mainly as direct, caused by freezing to death/hypothermia or drowning, happening in the afternoon and night in open countryside or on rivers and water bodies. Males outnumbered females and adult the categories child and elderly. Hazardous behaviour of victims was more frequent than non-hazardous. Information on fatalities and structure of their characteristics reflects strongly historical milestones of the country, political and socioeconomic changes as well as changes in the life style. Besides important weather effects on the deadliest events, the character of fatality data with weaker temporal coverage in 1945–1961 and 1978–1995 do not allow to clearly prove the effects of long-term climate variability. Detailed knowledge of weather-related fatalities with respect to their spatiotemporal occurrence, structure and characteristics, with a nearly half of them being classified as hazardous behaviour of victims (or culprits of deadly events), offer possibility to learn from these fatality data with the aim to apply appropriate risk communication and contribute to the potential decreasing of fatalities (injuries) during extreme weather events.
Multi-parameter sensitivities along warm conveyor belt trajectories: A visual analysis using Met.3D
Authors: Hieronymus Maicon , Neuhauser Christoph , Kern Michael , Rautenhaus Marc , Oertel Annika , Westermann Rüdiger
Published: July 2023

Cloud microphysical processes are highly relevant for cloud and precipitation characteristics, cloud radiative properties and the latent heat release during phase changes of water can interact with atmospheric dynamics. These sub-grid scale processes are typically parameterized in numerical weather prediction models, introducing parametric uncertainty in weather forecasts. The analysis of uncertainties related to these parameterizations imposes multiple challenges: On the one hand, it requires robust quantification of the impact of hundreds of uncertain model parameters. On the other hand, it requires adequate tools to filter, visualize, and understand the parameter impacts. Algorithmic Differentiation (AD) is a tool to efficiently evaluate the magnitude and timing at which a model state is sensitive to a model parameter [1]. We demonstrate the capabilities of AD, focusing on uncertain parameters in a two-moment cloud microphysics scheme along trajectories of a warm conveyor belt, which is the primary cloud- and precipitation-forming airstream in extratropical cyclones. To understand the parameter influence, we here introduce methods to systematically analyze different impacts in different warm conveyor belt ascent scenarios [2]. For example, this includes an objective clustering of trajectories w.r.t to parameter sensitivities. Met.3D, an open-source tool for interactive, three-dimensional visualization of numerical atmospheric model datasets, then provides a visual interface to compare multiple sensitivities on multiple trajectories from each cluster, assess the spatio-temporal relationships between the sensitivities and the trajectories’ shapes and locations, and find similarities in the temporal development of sensitivities along various trajectories’ location and time for ascent. 

 

[1] Hieronymus, M., Baumgartner, M., Miltenberger, A. and Brinkmann, A.: Algorithmic Differentiation for Sensitivity Analysis in Cloud Microphysics, J. Adv. Model Earth Syst. (2022), 10.1029/2021MS002849. 

[2] Neuhauser, C., Hieronymus, M., Kern, M., Rautenhaus, M., Oertel, A., and Westermann, R.: Visual analysis of model parameter sensitivities along warm conveyor belt trajectories using Met.3D (1.6.0-multivar0), Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. [preprint], https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2023-27, in review, 2023. 
On using self-organizing maps in analyses of circulation types and circulation modes
Authors: Stryhal Jan , Beranová Romana , Huth Radan
Published: July 2023

Self-organizing maps (SOMs) represent an increasingly popular method in climatology. They are able to reduce very complex atmospheric circulation data into a two-dimensional array of patterns, or provide a topologically-ordered nonlinear classification of high-dimensional data. As such, their output combines weather/circulation types with exploratory projection / dimensionality reduction, that is, two approaches to feature extraction that are usually conceptualized and interpreted in very different ways and studied by sets of rather distinct methods. As a consequence to this complexity of SOMs, they have been interpreted not only as weather/circulation types, but, alternatively and less intuitively, the array has also been suggested to represent a continuum of teleconnections. The distinct characteristics of SOMs, in addition to the absence of a widely accepted framework for defining teleconnections and a standard set of terminologies, can potentially cause confusion and misinterpretations when comparing works of authors with different perspectives. This is particularly true when reading the conclusions of studies without a thorough understanding of the context. Our contribution briefly introduces SOMs and their relation to circulation types, circulation regimes, modes of variability, and teleconnections. We use synthetic datasets generated from idealized modes of variability and from main modes of Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation variability extracted from daily SLP fields by a rotated principal component analysis to demonstrate how SOM arrays capture the spatial patterns of modes as well as changes in the strength and phase of modes. Additionally, we explore the possibility of using linear feature-extraction tools such as PCA to train high-quality SOMs more efficiently.
Modeling of the impact of the air temperature increments on the stomatal conductance and ozone doses in the mountain area of High Tatra Mts., Slovakia
Authors: Buchholcerova Anna
Published: July 2023

Tropospheric ozone is a reactive compound originating from both biogenic and anthropogenic emissions and stratospheric intrusions. Open-top chamber studies and fumigation experiments have already proven an adverse effect of its elevated concentrations on vegetation including changes in microscopical structures, leaf bronzing, and most important the decrease in growth increment. Ozone distribution in the troposphere is irregular in both time and space and its daily and annual course is affected by several factors (such as solar radiation and precursor concentrations). Ozone concentrations increase with altitude, which might lead to the assumption, that the mountain flora is more endangered by ozone effects than the flora at the lower altitude. The studies focusing on ozone effects on vegetation are oriented predominantly on the crop and timber production species and the research in the natural environment beyond this production is marginal. One of the ways to estimate ozone impact on vegetation is ozone dose calculation PODY. The determining factor of ozone dose modeling is stomatal conductance (gsto, mmol m-2s-1), which describes the degree of stomata opening and therefore regulates the ozone uptake by the stomata. This variable is weather- and environment-dependent. The stomatal conductance was estimated by the stochastic model and Jarvis model, which is recommended by United Nations Economic Commission for Europe. The expected air temperature increase might influence the ozone doses mostly by the change in stomatal conductance and by the prolongated growth season of plants. The poster will provide the basic evaluation of air temperature increments on ozone doses for forest species in High Tatra Mts. for future projections.
The way towards impact based warnings in Norway
Authors: Agersten Solfrid , Sivle Anders
Published: July 2023

Several changes have been made in Norway over the last five years. The warnings are now issued in both Norwegian and English, and include color/warning level, advises, expected impacts, illustrations and probability information. The CAP format is used and warning dissemination is also made available through a broader range of media and specifically in social media channels. The warnings also include wording regarding impacts and wanted behavior.
MET Norway is strongly involved in risk assessments regarding probabilities of weather exceeding given thresholds i.e. traditional forecasting, and now routinely participates in video conferences with important contingency actors on incident handling. Verification reports are also written regularly after orange and red warnings, and a weekly report of the issued warnings and their impacts are made.
Gradually more phenomena have been included in the warning service by expert teams (meteorologists specialized on a certain phenomenon), based on feedback on user needs as well as the effects of a changing Norwegian climate. Flash-floods are an example of a phenomena that has occurred more often in recent years with a lot of damage and impact on transportation and other sectors.
Even though the thresholds for the warnings are still meteorologically based, they are based on return-values and/or discussed with large user-segments as the road-authorities, seen in the perspective of expected impacts. Norway is a country with a lot of mountain roads so to warn the different drivers about possible problems or a closed road is of large socio-economic importance.
A lot of the impacts and advice used are based on dialogue with relevant user groups. In the presentation the weather warning process and service in Norway will be shown and a glimpse into our plans to even improve it more.
Linking global warming levels to local climate scenarios: applicability, prospects and uncertainties
Authors: Becsi Benedikt , Formayer Herbert
Published: July 2023

Recently, interest in analysing regional climate change impacts in light of global warming levels (GWLs) has risen, not least because the IPCC used them in their current report cycle. GWLs shift the focus point in the uncertainty chain compared to classical scenario approaches like SRES or RCPs, and allow a more comprehensive analysis of the differences and implications of a 1.5°C vs. a 2°C warmer world. Although a lot of research has been done to link GWLs to regional climate change signals within global circulation model (GCM) outputs, or between GCMs and regional climate model (RCM) outputs, there is a lack in studies to link GWLs to localised climate scenarios. In contrast to analysing regional signals within GCMs and between GCMs and RCMs, often no direct link can be established between the global and the downscaled models, especially when they are driven by an older version of GCMs (e.g. CMIP3, CMIP5), because many local climate scenarios have not been updated since the release of CMIP6.
Here, a version-agnostic methodology of linking local climate scenarios to GWLs derived from CMIP6 GCMs is presented for the example of the Austrian climate scenarios (ÖKS15). It is an extension of the time sampling method where time slices around the crossing point of global mean temperature over the respective GWL threshold are derived from GCMs. When using those time slices directly, uncertainties emerging from the local scale would intersperse the anthropogenic warming signal with natural climate variability. To avoid this, instead of explicit time periods, the respective climate change signals are used to select the period of interest from the local scenarios. This approach promises a more robust analysis compared to the time sampling method, because it considers error propagation biases due to the downscaling method and ambiguous reference periods to derive the anomalies.
The study is expected to contribute to locally adapted assessment reports on climate change impacts that intend to use the IPCC methodology, like the second Austrian Assessment Report on Climate Change (AAR2).
Machine learning framework to classify extreme weather events based on multi-scale dynamic and thermodynamic predictors
Authors: Lehner Sebastian , Enigl Katharina , Spiekermann Raphael , Kienberger Stefan , Haslinger Klaus
Published: July 2023

Extreme weather events and corresponding natural hazards have always been a major threat to people all over the globe. It is common scientific consensus that climate change comes along with increases in both frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, entailing increasing amounts of associated natural hazard events. However, describing regional extreme weather events within climate models is still challenging. Moreover, this poses a major challenge for decision-makers in the field of civil protection who require an integrated multi-hazard risk assessment and impact forecasting methodology tailored to their needs.
In order to investigate the predictability of extreme weather events and associated natural hazards (e.g. droughts, floods, storms) and to analyze trends in a climatological context, extreme events are linked to their meteorological drivers. We adopt a machine-learning framework to classify days as extreme for a given natural hazard using multiple components across different spatial scales. Synoptic-scale dynamic and thermodynamic components are included via atmospheric weather types and synoptic-scale aggregates of thermodynamic variables. Furthermore, regional components are added as additional features, capturing regional pressure gradients and regional aggregates of thermodynamic variables. Model performance is evaluated within a spatiotemporal split-sample training and testing procedure, that allows to quantify transferability and extrapolation capabilities across spatial and temporal extents and to determine the predictability of extreme events.
The model can be used as an extreme event classifier for times series analyses for a given spatial extent and natural hazard. Historic trends are analyzed using ERA5 data with a focus on Central Europe and the Alpine Region. Furthermore, the modeling framework can be applied to the output of General Circulation Model data, which allows the estimation and analysis of future trends under different climate change scenarios.
Monitoring soil moisture & snow water equivalent with cosmic-ray neutrons across scales
Authors: Schrön Martin , Zacharias Steffen , Beyrich Frank , Böttcher Falk , Schattan Paul , Altdorff Daniel , Fatima Eshrat , Boeing Friedrich , Kumar Rohini , Samaniego Luis , Attinger Sabine , Dietrich Peter
Published: July 2023

Cosmic-ray albedo neutron sensing (CRNS) is a modern technology that can be used to continuously measure the average water content in the environment (i.e., in soil, snow, or vegetation). The sensor footprint encompasses an area of 10-15 hectares and extends to 20-50 decimeters deep into the soil. Thereby it can capture relevant root-zone soil moisture for drought analysis while being insensitive to small-scale heterogeneity. The method can be an alternative to conventional in-situ sensors or to expensive sampling of soil or snow. It also has the potential to bridge the scale gap between point-scale measurements and remote-sensing data in both, the horizontal and the vertical domain.
Currently, more than 200 sensors are operated in the growing networks of national and continental observatories across the globe. CRNS stations are continuously monitoring the local water dynamics at various sites worldwide. They require almost no maintenance over the years due to a solar module, battery and telemetry. Since the method works non-invasively, the soil is left undisturbed. The passive sensing technique measures natural cosmogenic background radiation which interacts with hydrogen in the ground independent of temperature, frost, or wind effects. CRNS can also be used on mobile platforms for on-demand soil moisture mapping at the field-, regional, or even national scales. The sensors are rapidly operational on any ground- or airborne vehicle.
In this presentation we will demonstrate how stationary and mobile CRNS can help to quantify the temporal as well as spatial distribution of water in soil or snow for various sites in Germany, Europe, and beyond. We will also discuss applications of long-term monitoring networks in combination with hydrological modeling and remote sensing. The data can be particularly useful to study hydrological extreme events, droughts, heatwaves, floods, snow melt/accumulation, and it can be applied as a lower boundary condition in atmospheric models, in hydrological models, in agricultural irrigation management, or for drought impact analysis.
Climate Services in the Weather value chain: an outlook for Europe.
Authors: Gutbrod Karl G. , Caspar Edgar , Eccleston Andrew
Published: July 2023

Traditionally, the Weather value chain was focused on providing weather services, including mostly measurements, short- and mid-range forecasts and derived services for different downstream sectors. Climate characterisations, Assessments and relate services were largely the responsibility of National Hdyro-Meteorological Services (NHMS) and Academia, and only a small part of the service range, and only few private companies specialised in providing such services to their customers.
With the increasing certainty and impact of Climate change, the need has increased to provide more in-depth analyses of impending changes and their impact. This has led to the emergence of new services, and of new companies providing specific services of climate change assessment to different segments of the industry during the past 10 years. This trend is likely to continue and to require new skills and personnel.
This paper analyses the market for climate services in Europe from 2010-2020, by quantifying the presence and emergence of new companies providing such services in terms of sales, number of jobs and market segments. Where possible, the data are updated until 2022.
The paper then lists legal requirements imposed by European legislation, company policies and recent demand to quantify the market requirements.
Based on past trends and market needs, the paper further attempts to make projections for the period 2023-2030 regarding the evolution of the market in terms of sales volume, the number of jobs and the qualifications required.
The market analysis is based on the European market research conducted by PRIMET for the period 2010-2020, and own research in the area since then.
Measurement campaign focused on meteorology and air quality to support the validation of the PALM LES model in Prague
Authors: Bauerová Petra , Keder Josef , Šindelářová Adriana , Patiño William , Vlček Ondřej , Krč Pavel , Resler Jaroslav , Geletič Jan , Řezníček Hynek , Bureš Martin , Eben Kryštof , Belda Michal , Radović Jelena , Fuka Vladimír , Jareš Radek , Sühring Matthias , Ezau Igor
Published: July 2023

The LES based modelling system PALM has been widely extended during recent years. A lot of the development focused on the processes needed for simulation of complex urban environments. Besides individual validations of the newly developed processes, an evaluation of the complete modelling system in a real urban environment is necessary to ensure the reliability of modelling results. Such comprehensive validation requires the construction of additional monitoring networks within the areas of interest to obtain sufficient data support.
Our earlier campaigns, e.g. Resler et.al. (2017, 2020), focused mainly on validation of the energy exchange related processes in urban area. As part of the currently running international TURBAN project, a measurement campaign was implemented in the center of Prague, Czech Republic. It focuses mainly on evaluation of the street level meteorological and air quality dynamical processes by utilisation of a specially built sensor network placed in heavily polluted street canyons (traffic-related pollution). Twenty air quality sensors were complemented by a doppler lidar and microwave radiometer profile observations, and by observations from permanent meteorological and air quality monitoring stations operated by the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI). These data were compared with PALM simulations performed for selected episodes of the year. The PALM model was configured in two nested domains with resolution of 10 m / 2 m and the extent of 8×8 km / 1.2×1.6 km.
A significant challenge to the measurement campaign was the low accuracy and reliability of air quality sensor observations. The differences in the values of individual sensors as well as their deviations from the reference observations reached tens of percent. Using sufficiently long co-measurement with the reference monitoring station and advanced statistical methods, sufficiently accurate and reliable data suitable for model evaluation were obtained. To ensure long-term quality control of the observations, two selected sensors were co-located with a continuous reference CHMI station within the simulation domain. Similarly, setting up a profile measurement (especially with Doppler LIDAR) to obtain the maximum possible information in a given space and processing a large amount of data was a challenge. The presentation shows the details of the observations and their processing as well as the preliminary results of the model evaluation.
The impacts of climate change on the Hungarian wines
Authors: Szabó Péter , Pongrácz Rita , Bartholy Judit
Published: July 2023

Global warming has a significant impact on global food production, including grapes used for winemaking. European vineyards, in particular, are at risk due to changing climatic conditions affecting the grapevine growth cycle, disease outbreaks, and extreme weather conditions.
In the current research, we use the bioclimatic Huglin-index over all 22 wine regions in Hungary to assess the observed heat sums available for grapes, which correlates with sugar content (highly) and yields (significantly). Furthermore, we analyse the spring frosts after the vegetation period started affecting blooming, the heat stress over summer heatwaves affecting grape quality, and other minor climatic conditions as well. For this matter, high-resolution and homogenized daily observations are used from 1971 covering the Carpathian Basin. Results suggest that in the last 50 years, already a 27% increase was detected on average in the heat sums available for grapes, which has already started to have an impact on changing the varieties of grapes in some regions.
For the future, the Euro-CORDEX regional climate simulations offer valuable insights into expected changes in climatic patterns in Europe. These changes of the less-mitigation RCP4.5 and non-mitigation RCP8.5 scenarios are likely to result in earlier ripening, lower acidity, increased alcohol content, and higher susceptibility to pests and diseases, leading to reduced yields and smaller berries due to water stress. With immediate mitigation of RCP2.6 scenario, adaptation strategies could be avoided, such as selecting heat-tolerant grapes, changing of cultivation management, or changing vineyard locations to cooler climates. However, these measures require substantial investment and may not be feasible for all wine producers.
Communicating Uncertainty in Weather Forecasts and Warnings: Challenges and Visualization Examples
Authors: Spirig Christoph , Willemse Saskia , Zukanovic Firdewsa , Bessenbacher Verena , Bhend Jonas , Moret Lionel
Published: July 2023

The mobile weather app nowadays represents the most important channel for MeteoSwiss to communicate its forecasts and warnings to the general public. The forecast presentation on the app has evolved from an initially deterministic format to now also include probabilistic elements. However, these first steps towards including uncertainty information have provoked mixed user feedback, highlighting the challenge of effectively communicating uncertainty information to our stakeholders. If communicated effectively, forecast uncertainty information leads to better decisions thus illustrating the added value of such information (Joslyn and LeClerc, 2013). 
To address this challenge, we have started an effort to explore new ways effectively communicating forecasts and their uncertainty and will present examples of new visualizations. We start from the existing and well-established forms of forecast visualizations including time series of forecasts and spatial maps and extend these to convey forecast uncertainty in an intuitive and thus effective manner. To gauge the effectiveness of these new visualizations, we will perform end-users evaluations. Such end-user evaluations are seen as key element but represent a substantial effort: There is a risk of rejecting promising concepts if the prototype visualization is not of sufficient visual quality, as graphical details may decide on acceptance or rejection by end-users. Our ultimate goal is to enable the general public to take well-informed and thus better decisions by improving their understanding of the uncertainty associated with weather forecasts and warnings. Susan Joslyn and Jared LeClerc, Decisions With Uncertainty: The Glass Half Full, Current Directions in Psychological Science, Vol. 22, 4, 2013, https://doi.org/10.1177/0963721413481473