Determinanty regionalnych zmian w sektorze produkcji trzody chlewnej w Polsce
Authors: Pepliński Benedykt 
Published: June 2023

Introduction. The socioeconomic processes taking place in today’s economy result in considerable differences in regional development across most aspects of economic operations. This is also apparent for the pig and sow population. The main purpose of this paper was to explore and identify the determinants of changes in pig and sow numbers in Poland on a regional basis. This is the overarching objective for 8 specific objectives and 4 research hypotheses. The basic study period is 1960–2018 (at voivodeship level) and 1960, 1973, 1996 and 2010 (at district level). Methods and review of the location and regional development theories. The first part of the book (Chapters 1 and 2) is a literature review. The first one discusses the research methods employed in the study, i.e. growth rates, concentration indices, cluster analysis, technical analysis and panel methods. Chapter 2 presents the evolution of views on the reasons, processes and methods of diagnosing the disparities in economic development across regions and business locations, primarily including agricultural production. The chapters provide a characteristic of classical location theories, including the Thünen rings which was the first to address the issue of production location of specific agricultural goods in relation to the central site. Later, the chapter presents the top-down and bottom-up regional development theories and location theories. At the end, you may find a description of the lines of development of the EU regional policy, with particular reference to the agricultural sector. The chapter presents the history, the reasons behind the introduction and the lines of development of the regional policy. Is also provides an overview of currently available regional development programs for the agricultural sector and evaluates their suitability for the reestablishment of pig livestock production in Poland. Results. In order to depict the situation in international markets, the third chapter describes the changes in the global production of pig livestock. Focus is primarily placed on changes in the geographical distribution of the pig population by continent and by key producers. The study confirmed the presence of geographic concentration processes which varied in pace across continents and countries. In Poland, compared to the EU’s largest producers, these processes were moderately advanced but progressed faster than in other EU countries. Later, this book deals with issues of pig production on a sectoral basis. Chapter 4 characterizes the production of pig livestock in Poland. First, it presents the historical background of the development of the Polish agriculture, from the end of landlordism in the 1800s, through to agricultural reforms after World War 2, the era of the free market economy and the conditions for agriculture and pig livestock production following Poland’s accession to the EU. A separate sub-chapter is dedicated to the African swine fever which has been a major threat to the development and restocking of the domestic pig population since 2014 (in restricted areas and elsewhere in the country). The analyses of the regional development of pig production in Poland were conducted in the three subsequent Chapters. Chapter 5 discusses the regional conditions for pig production in Poland by analyzing the buying-in prices of pigs and cereals, piglet prices, sow prolificacy and animal losses in specific groups of a pig herd. Cereal harvest is an important topic, especially in the context of the important fragmentation of the Polish agriculture and of the pig population, and having in mind the importance of self-supply of cereals for the farmers. The harvest primarily depended on yields and on the resources of agricultural land and arable land. The progressing production concentration, reflected in the growing share of animal populations living in large herds of several to several dozen thousand pig animals (or several hundred to several thousand sows), indicate the need for accelerating concentration processes in Poland. As shown by the analysis, the fastest progress of these processes was reported in western voivodeships while it was the opposite for eastern voivodeships. The key answers to the research hypotheses were presented in the two last Chapters which analyzed the changes in pig numbers. Chapters 6 and 7 analyze these trends at voivodeship and district level, respectively. This allowed to demonstrate the presence of processes of geographic concentration of pigs and sows which accelerated in the free market era. The pace of these processes was higher for the pig population. In turn, the analysis of the location of the pig population in relation to urban centers demonstrated a slight increase in the importance of regions located 50 to 100 km away from urban centers, mainly to the detriment of external regions and semi-remote regions (mainly those with 500,000 residents or more). Smaller towns were found not to have a considerable impact on livestock density. As shown by the analysis, agricultural development in different Polish regions was conditioned by historical divisions resulting from the Partitions and from the reintegration of western and northern territories after World War 2. Despite the reestablishment of the market economy, these differences persist over time. They will also significantly affect the location of new large industrial farms. The reintegrated territories offer the largest number of convenient locations, with slightly less being available in the former Prussian Partition. Also, as shown by the panel analysis, the increase in animal numbers in different voivodeships was stimulated by: the share of farms with more than 15 ha of agricultural land; cereal yields; and sow prolificacy (as regards the pig population). Conversely, the average farm area and cereal production per pig had an inhibiting effect. According to the forecast of changes in pig and sow numbers, most voivodeships are highly likely to continue following the downward trend until 2021 or even longer. This is true for all eastern voivodeships and some voivodeships from the former Prussian Partition. The most advantageous technical conditions were found in 3 voivodeships located in the reintegrated territories. Following a prolonged period of decline, horizontal or upward trends have been observed there in the last years covered by this study.