bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A Note on Diagnosing Multivariate Conditional Heteroscedasticity Models
Authors: Tse Y. K. , Tsui A. K. C.
Published: March 2003

In this paper we consider several tests for model misspecification after a multivariate conditional heteroscedasticity model has been fitted. We examine the performance of the recent test due to Ling and Li (J. Time Ser. Anal. 18 (1997), 447–64), the Box–Pierce test and the residual‐based F test using Monte Carlo methods. We find that there are situations in which the Ling–Li test has very weak power. The residual‐based diagnostics demonstrate significant under‐rejection under the null. In contrast, the Box–Pierce test based on the cross‐products of the standardized residuals often provides a useful diagnostic that has reliable empirical size as well as good power against the alternatives considered.
Fast Filtering and Smoothing for Multivariate State Space Models
Authors: Koopman S. J. , Durbin J.
Published: March 2003

This paper investigates a new approach to diffuse filtering and smoothing for multivariate state space models. The standard approach treats the observations as vectors, while our approach treats each element of the observational vector individually. This strategy leads to computationally efficient methods for multivariate filtering and smoothing. Also, the treatment of the diffuse initial state vector in multivariate models is much simpler than in existing methods. The paper presents details of relevant algorithms for filtering, prediction and smoothing. Proofs are provided. Three examples of multivariate models in statistics and economics are presented for which the new approach is particularly relevant.
Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against an Autoregressive Unit Root Alternative
Authors: Xiao Zhijie
Published: March 2003

We propose a new test for the null hypothesis that a time series is stationary around a deterministic trend. The test is valid under general conditions on stationarity. Asymptotic distributions of the test statistic are derived under both the null and the alternative hypothesis of a unit root. It is shown that the limiting distribution has the classical Kolmogoroff– Smirnoff form. Critical values for the null distribution are calculated. Consistency of the tests is proved. The tests provide a useful complement to the conventional unit root tests.
Estimation of Hidden Frequencies for 2D Stationary Processes
Authors: Zhang Hao , Mandrekar V.
Published: March 2003

We study a stationary random field model that is composed of a signal of an unknown number of sine and cosine functions, and a coloured noise. This model has been used in image analysis and modelling spatial data, and is useful for signal extraction in the presence of coloured noise. The problem is to estimate the number of unknown frequencies and the unknown frequencies. The analogous time series model and related problems have been extensively studied. Our approach is based on some analytic properties of periodograms of stationary random fields that we establish in the paper. In particular, we show that the periodogram of a stationary random field of a moving average has a uniform upper bound of O (ln(N2)) where N2 is the sample size, and that the periodogram of the observed process has a magnitude of the order N2 uniformly in a neighbourhood of any hidden frequency, and much smaller outside.
Cointegration in frequency domain
Authors: LEVY D.
Published: March 2003

Existence of a cointegration relationship between two time series in the time domain imposes restrictions on the series zero‐frequency behaviour in terms of their squared coherence, phase and gain, in the frequency domain. I derive these restrictions by studying cross‐spectral properties of a cointegrated bivariate system. Specifically, I demonstrate that if two difference stationary series, Xt and Yt, are cointegrated with a cointegrating vector [1 b] and thus share a common stochastic trend, then at the zero frequency, the squared coherence of (1‐L)Xt and (1‐L)Yt will equal one, their phase will equal zero, and their gain will equal |b|.
Deconvolution of fractional brownian motion
Authors: PIPIRAS VLADAS , TAQQU MURAD S.
Published: March 2003

We show that a fractional Brownian motion with H′∈(0,1) can be represented as an explicit transformation of a fractional Brownian motion with index H ∈(0,1). In particular, when H′=½, we obtain a deconvolution formula (or autoregressive representation) for fractional Brownian motion. We work both in the `time domain' and the `spectral domain' and contrast the advantages of one domain over the other.
How Much Does Hiring and Firing Cost? Survey Evidence from a Sample of Italian Firms
Authors: Del Boca Alessandra , Rota Paola
Published: March 2003

We analyse the Italian labour market, which is typically considered to be highly regulated. We focus on the costs imposed on firms by the institutional environment in which they operate, and on the adjustment strategies that they pursue as a result. We have followed two complementary approaches: the analysis of the development of the laws relating to hiring and firing, together with a set of interviews of 61 manufacturing firms. This also allows us to quantify the extent of turnover costs on the total labour costs. Hiring costs, which include recruiting and training, range between 2.0 and 2.6 months of labour costs; firing costs range from less than half a monthly labour cost to 20 months of labour costs in cases of conflict.
Labour Surplus, Worker Rights and Productivity Growth: A Comparative Analysis of Asia and Latin America
Authors: DeFreitas Gregory , Marshall Adriana
Published: March 2003

How do labour market conditions, trade union rights and job security regulations affect labour productivity? This paper is the first attempt at an empirical analysis of this important question for a large sample of Asian and Latin American countries. We provide new estimates of the rates of surplus labour in 20 countries, as well as detailed tables summarizing their key regulations governing certain aspects of union activity and layoffs. Then we exploit these and other data in an econometric analysis of intercountry differentials in the growth rate of labour productivity in manufacturing during the 1980s. Among the principal results, we find that, while all else remains the same, productivity growth rates are significantly higher in countries with relatively larger labour surpluses, the effects of excess of labour on productivity growth are affected by the strength or weakness of union rights. We also find that the impacts of union rights and job security protections on productivity trends may be either positive or negative, depending on the labour market situation.
Market Volatility and the Structure of US Earnings
Authors: Magnani Elisabetta
Published: March 2003

This paper studies the relationship between volatility of industry‐specific shipments and real earnings. In an efficiency wage theoretical framework I show that wage premiums for the risk of unemployment depend on the value of the worker’s outside offer net of his/her mobility costs. Empirically it is shown that wage premiums for the risk of unemployment markedly vary in a cross section of workers. The main finding is that market volatility changes the return to skill such as labor market experience and education. Its impact markedly varies across occupation groups, with managers receiving returns to labour market experience that significantly increase with product market volatility.
Intergenerational Transfers, and Public Pensions in a Non Altuistic Setting: a Public Choice Model
Authors: Rosati Furio Camillo
Published: March 2003

The paper presents a model based on non‐altruistic individuals, where middle aged and old individuals influence the decisions about public social security system. This is an alternative or a complement to private intergenerational transfers. Fertility is endogenous, as children are seen as an assets in the process of transferring resources to old age by the network of intergenerational intrafamily transfers. Expectations about the Government social security budget balance play a crucial role. We also present some empirical estimates of the fertility and pension ‘demand’ function for some developed countries. It emerges that both can be treated as endogenous, and the results are coherent with the theory.
L2 Acquisition of Conflation Classes of Prenominal Adjectival Participles
Authors: Wang Chuming , Hun‐tak Lee Thomas
Published: March 2003

This article reports on an investigation into how Chinese‐speaking second language (L2) learners of English develop L2 knowledge of conflation classes of verbs in the formation of prenominal adjectival participles. Four groups of 40 learners and 1 group of 30 native speakers of English participated in the study. They were asked to judge the acceptability of the prenominal adjectival participles placed in 4 different linguistic contexts. The results showed that the L2 learners displayed sensitivity to conflation classes governing the behavior of adjectival participles. Their knowledge developed gradually, in keeping with increasing exposure to English.
Lexical Retrieval: An Aspect of Fluent Second–Language Production That Can Be Enhanced
Authors: Snellings Patrick , van Gelderen Amos , de Glopper Kees
Published: March 2003

The efficiency of lexical retrieval, an essential subprocess of productive language skills, is crucial in fluent writing and speaking. We examine the feasibility of an experimental computerized training for fluent lexical retrieval in the second language in a classroom setting, applying techniques previously restricted to laboratory use. Results on both a lexical decision and a written lexical retrieval task show that students in each trained–words condition have higher accuracy scores and superior reaction times on the trained words in comparison to students who were not trained on these words, with medium to large effect sizes. We discuss implications of these findings for the study of productive language skills.
Regulatory Failure and the Collapse of Japan’s Home Mortgage Lending Industry: A Legal and Economic Analysis
Authors: Milhaupt Curtis , Miller Geoffrey
Published: March 2003

This article analyzes the dynamics of contemporary cooperation and conflict in Japanese financial regulation through the prism of the “jusen problem,” the collapse of Japan’s home mortgage lending industry in the 1990s. The jusen problem is one of the most striking examples of regulatory failure, strategic interest group bargaining, and large‐scale dispute resolution in Japanese history.
Who is Diverted? Case Selection for Court‐Monitored Mental Health Treatment
Authors: Luskin Mary Lee
Published: March 2003

Specialized courts raise questions about the decisions that bring some defendants into such courts and keep others out. Because of risks perceived in diverting mentally ill defendants, decisions to select defendants for mental health courts are especially interesting. I estimate a model of the decision to divert defendants into court‐monitored mental health treatment. I find that gender and age combine to disadvantage young male defendants and older female defendants. The findings point to the importance of structuring selection processes in the design of specialized courts. They shed light on the consequences of including treatment personnel in justice system decisions.
The Legal Regulation of Medical Science
Authors: Roach Anleu Sharyn L.
Published: March 2003

Recent developments in reproductive technology have stimulated widespread public debate and controversy, especially regarding the social, ethical, moral, and legal implications of in vitro fertilization and human embryo experimentation. These issues have received a great deal of public attention in Australia over the past two decades. Some jurisdictions have implemented legislation to regulate and prohibit aspects of medical science. This discussion examines the emergence and career of the Infertility (Medical Procedures) Act 1984 in Australia and its regulation of embryo experimentation. The central argument is that law neither simply reacts to scientific developments nor merely reflects alleged community values, but actively constitutes and defines the boundaries of medical science. This fluidity or flexibility provides medical scientists with opportunities to make claims for the legitimate right to undertake certain experiments free from the interference of nonscientists. The controversy surrounding embryo experimentation highlights the ambiguities in distinguishing the proper sphere of science from ethical and legal jurisdictions.
Suspect Police Officers Investigated by Former Police Officers: Good Idea, Bad Idea?
Authors: Herzog Sergio
Published: March 2003

Up to 1992, all illegal use‐of‐force complaints against police officers in Israel were handled internally by the police department. In 1992, following public and political pressure, an external civilian board was established to handle such cases. In this framework, investigations of suspect police officers are conducted by former police officers. In this study, investigators’ and suspects’ personal and organizational characteristics were examined, as well as their attitudes to the civilian board and the manifestation of police violence. In general, the two groups were found to differ significantly on both levels. The employment of former police officers with high professional qualities seems to have some advantages in this investigative situation.
Opening the Door to Complementary and Alternative Medicine: Self–Regulation in Ontario
Authors: Gilmour Joan , Kelner Merrijoy , Wellman Beverly
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the steps that three complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) groups – naturopaths, acupuncturists/traditional Chinese medicine practitioners, and homeopaths – are taking to achieve statutory self–regulation in the province of Ontario. The regulatory framework created by the Regulated Health Professions Act of 1991 is outlined, and the differing approaches taken by each of the three groups to gain inclusion under its umbrella are compared and contrasted. The paper assesses the influence of current regulatory and socio–political environments, and queries the extent to which the paradigms of health and health care of these different groups can be accommodated in a regulatory regime heavily reliant on the conventional medical model.
James Anderson, Development Economist: a cautionary tale
Authors: Gee J. M. Alec
Published: March 2003

James Anderson, 1739–1808, analysed the relatively backward and underdeveloped Scottish economy of his time. Anderson stressed the crucial importance of externalities and the adverse developmental effects of moral hazard and considered active intervention, such that the forces of self‐interest are allowed positive play, to be essential to the development process. His approach and analysis are compared with those of Sir James Steuart, John Rae, and Adam Smith and the classical school. It is argued that Anderson’s analysis is of relevance today, and he was more objective in his approach than was Adam Smith and his followers.
Common Stochastic Trends in Emerging Equity Markets
Authors: Garrett Ian , Spyrou Spyros
Published: March 2003

Evidence suggests that stock markets in industrialized economies are increasingly integrated with the presence of common trends amongst national stock market indices. This implies that in the long run there is little gain from diversifying portfolios internationally. We investigate the existence of common trends in the increasingly important emerging equity markets of the Latin American and Asia‐Pacific regions. While we find evidence of common trends, we argue that this in itself does not rule out long‐run benefits to diversification. Examination of the composition of the common trends reveals that some countries do not enter that region’s common trend and returns in some countries do not react to movements in the common trend, a result that generalizes to the inclusion of both the USA and the UK. Thus, even though common trends are detected, their impact is very limited and therefore emerging equity markets offer benefits in terms of diversification, even in the long run.
The Demand For Goods Under Mixture Aversion
Authors: Butler David J. , Moffatt Peter G.
Published: March 2003

We analyse the demand for goods which the consumer has an aversion to consuming in mixtures. Examples are presented. It is suggested that the axiom of non‐satiation should be relaxed in order for the model to be internally consistent. The indifference map with mixture aversion and satiation is constructed and is shown to have very unusual properties. It is then demonstrated that constrained maximization of the underlying utility function can result in both goods being consumed. It is also demonstrated that the type of goods analysed here can exhibit the rare characteristic of Giffenity.
On the Welfare Implications of Customs Unions in the Presence of Finance Constraints
Authors: Palivos Theodore , Yip Chong K.
Published: March 2003

We examine the welfare effects of a customs union on a small monetary economy. The role of money is captured by a generalized cash‐in‐advance constraint which allows for non‐uniform monetization across sectors. This generates a demand‐side distortion which results in a discrepancy between the marginal domestic rate of substitution and the world price. We show that, depending on the economy’s inflation rate and the difference between the existing and the optimal tariff rate, trade creation may reduce welfare while trade diversion may improve it.
Disinflation, Real Income Uncertainty and the Demand for Consumer Durables in a Mean–Variance Model of Portfolio Selection
Authors: Madsen Jakob B.
Published: March 2003

Survey evidence indicates that consumers only expect to be fractionally compensated by the real income reduction of inflation. Incorporating this evidence into a mean–variance model of portfolio selection, this paper shows that demand for durables is a negative function of expected inflation and income uncertainty. Using quarterly data for the USA and annual panel data for the OECD countries, empirical evidence shows that demand for durables is significantly adversely affected by inflation and income uncertainty, and that the recent disinflation has resulted in a significant increase in demand for durables.
International Evidence on the Asymmetry of Business Cycle Turning Points
Authors: Kontolemis Zenon G.
Published: March 2003

Turning point symmetry implies that a time series displays cycles that exhibit similar behavior around peaks and troughs. In this paper two tests for business cycle turning point symmetry are applied to industrial production data from a number of OECD countries. A Markov chain test provides very weak evidence for turning point asymmetry for these countries. Several problems with this approach are identified, and nonparametric methods are proposed as alternatives to the Markov chain test and reveal more clear‐cut evidence for turning point asymmetry.
A Note on Estimating Market–based Minimum Capital Risk Requirements: A Multivariate GARCH Approach
Authors: Brooks C. , Clare A. D. , Persand G.
Published: March 2003

Internal risk management models of the kind popularized by J. P. Morgan are now used widely by the world’s most sophisticated financial institutions as a means of measuring risk. Using the returns on three of the most popular futures contracts on the London International Financial Futures Exchange, in this paper we investigate the possibility of using multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models for the calculation of minimum capital risk requirements (MCRRs). We propose a method for the estimation of the value at risk of a portfolio based on a multivariate GARCH model. We find that the consideration of the correlation between the contracts can lead to more accurate, and therefore more appropriate, MCRRs compared with the values obtained from a univariate approach to the problem.
Export Performance and the Role of Foreign Direct Investment
Authors: Pain Nigel , Wakelin Katharine
Published: March 2003

We explore the relationship between the location of production and the trade performance of 11 OECD countries since 1971. The paper augments a standard export demand model, which includes relative prices, market size and measures of relative innovation, with indicators of both inward and outward investment levels. Common long‐run parameters are accepted for market size, relative prices and relative patenting, but not for the direct investment effects. The sign and magnitude of the direct investment effects vary by country. Outward investment has a generally negative impact on trade shares, while inward investment has a generally positive one.
Shock Hunting: The Relative Importance of Industry‐Specific, Region‐specific and Aggregate shocks in the OECD Countries
Authors: Funke Michael , Hall Stephen , Ruhwedel Ralf
Published: March 2003

A common argument against monetary union is that it precludes stabilization of economies through monetary and exchange rate policy. We address this point by calculating the relative empirical importance of industry‐specific, country‐specific and aggregate disturbances using a comparable international data set comprising annual data from 1971 to 1993 for 19 OECD countries and 25 two‐digit industries. The evidence seems to suggest that the country‐specific shocks have declined over the last 20 years.
Characterizing Gaussian Models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Authors: Kennedy D. P.
Published: March 2003

Models of the term structure of interest rates are considered for which, under the martingale measure, instantaneous forward rates are Gaussian. The possible forms of the covariance structure are characterized under appropriate formulations of the Markov property. It is demonstrated that imposing Markovian assumptions limits severely the covariances that may be obtained and that the strongest such formulation together with stationarity implies that the whole forward rate surface is necessarily a Gaussian random field described by just three parameters.
On the Rate of Convergence of Discrete‐Time Contingent Claims
Authors: Heston Steve , Zhou Guofu
Published: March 2003

This paper characterizes the rate of convergence of discrete‐time multinomial option prices. We show that the rate of convergence depends on the smoothness of option payoff functions, and is much lower than commonly believed because option payoff functions are often of all‐or‐nothing type and are not continuously differentiable. To improve the accuracy, we propose two simple methods, an adjustment of the discrete‐time solution prior to maturity and smoothing of the payoff function, which yield solutions that converge to their continuous‐time limit at the maximum possible rate enjoyed by smooth payoff functions. We also propose an intuitive approach that systematically derives multinomial models by matching the moments of a normal distribution. A highly accurate trinomial model also is provided for interest rate derivatives. Numerical examples are carried out to show that the proposed methods yield fast and accurate results.
Multiple Ratings Model of Defaultable Term Structure
Authors: Bielecki Tomasz R. , Rutkowski Marek
Published: March 2003

A new approach to modeling credit risk, to valuation of defaultable debt and to pricing of credit derivatives is developed. Our approach, based on the Heath, Jarrow, and Morton (1992) methodology, uses the available information about the credit spreads combined with the available information about the recovery rates to model the intensities of credit migrations between various credit ratings classes. This results in a conditionally Markovian model of credit risk. We then combine our model of credit risk with a model of interest rate risk in order to derive an arbitrage‐free model of defaultable bonds. As expected, the market price processes of interest rate risk and credit risk provide a natural connection between the actual and the martingale probabilities.
Put Option Premiums and Coherent Risk Measures
Authors: Jarrow Robert
Published: March 2003

This note defines the premium of a put option on the firm as a measure of insolvency risk. The put premium is not a coherent risk measure as defined by Artzner et al. (1999). It satisfies all the axioms for a coherent risk measure except one, the translation invariance axiom. However, it satisfies a weakened version of the translation invariance axiom that we label translation monotonicity. The put premium risk measure generates an acceptance set that satisfies the regularity Axioms 2.1–2.4 of Artzner et al. (1999). In fact, this is a general result for any risk measure satisfying the same risk measure axioms as the put premium. Finally, the coherent risk measure generated by the put premium's acceptance set is the minimal capital required to protect the firm against insolvency uniformly across all states of nature.
Why Do Conceptual Analysts Disagree?
Authors: Brown Harold I.
Published: March 2003

The practice of a priori conceptual analysis requires that the concept being analyzed be available in the analyst's mind. The difficulties of analysis and the existence of disagreements among analysts are explained by distinguishing the implicit knowledge we have of these concepts from the explicit knowledge we seek. This view of disagreement assumes that those who disagree are typically attempting to analyze a single shared concept. In this paper, reasons are developed for replacing this guiding assumption with the alternative assumption that members of a conceptual community often have similar, but not identical, concepts. Adopting this alternative requires that we rethink the nature and aims of conceptual analysis.
Ontological Parity and/or Ordinality?
Authors: Wallace Kathleen
Published: March 2003

The principles of ontological parity and ordinality have distinct functions in Buchler's ontology. Ontological parity could be independently subscribed to, whereas ordinality signals the positive conception of the nature of reality as irreducibly complex or indefinitely related, which Buchler's metaphysical system seeks to articulate. Both principles inform Buchler's system, but each has a distinctive function. They are not, I suggest, necessarily at odds with one another, as some critics claim. I do identify several difficulties that follow from (1) the level of generality claimed by Buchler and (2) the claim of irreducible complexity or indefinite relatedness.
Global Inequality and International Institutions
Authors: Hurrell Andrew
Published: March 2003

This article considers the links between international institutions and global economic justice: how international institutions might be morally important; how they have changed; and at what those changes imply for justice. The institutional structure of international society has evolved in ways that help to undercut the arguments of those who take a restrictionist position towards global economic justice. There is now a denser and more integrated network of shared institutions and practices within which social expectations of global justice and injustice have become more securely established. But, at the same time, our major international social institutions continue to constitute a deformed political order. This combination of density and deformity shapes how we should think about international justice in general and has important implications for the scope, character, and modalities of global economic justice. Having laid out a view of normative development and where it leads, the article then examines why international distributive justice remains so marginal to current practice.
Computer Modeling and the Fate of Folk Psychology
Authors: Barker John A.
Published: March 2003

Although Paul Churchland and Jerry Fodor both subscribe to the so‐called theory‐theory– the theory that folk psychology (FP) is an empirical theory of behavior – they disagree strongly about FP’s fate. Churchland contends that FP is a fundamentally flawed view analogous to folk biology, and he argues that recent advances in computational neuroscience and connectionist AI point toward development of a scientifically respectable replacement theory that will give rise to a new common‐sense psychology. Fodor, however, wagers that FP will be largely preserved and vindicated by scientific investigations of behavior. Recent findings by developmental psychologists, I argue, will push both Churchlandians and Fodorians toward the pessimistic view that FP is a misguided theory that will never be displaced, because it is, so to speak, built into our cognitive systems. I explore the possibility of preserving optimism by rejecting the theory‐theory and adopting the simulation theory, a competing view developed by Robert Gordon, Alvin Goldman, and Jane Heal. According to simulationists, common‐sense interpretation of behavior is accomplished by means of pretense‐like operations that deploy the cognitive system’s own reasoning capabilities in a disengaged manner. Since on this view no theory‐like set of principles would be needed, the simulation theory seems to enjoy a simplicity advantage over the theory‐theory. Steven Stich and Shawn Nichols, however, contend that as the cognitive system would require special mechanisms for disengaged operation, the simplicity question cannot be resolved until suitable computational models are developed. I describe a set of models I have constructed to meet this need, and I discuss the contribution such models can make to determining FP’s fate.
Adaptable Robots
Authors: Korienek Gene , Uzgalis William
Published: March 2003

In this essay we consider some of the characteristics of adaptive biological systems and how these might work as models in designing a robot intended for the exploration of complex environments. Trying to design a robot that has such properties forces one to think hard about the nature of those properties. Here we have one intersection between philosophy and computing. We consider the nature of adaptability and some properties of complex biological systems that are relevant to designing adaptive robots, including direct perception, animacy, affordances, redundant degress of freedom, collective decisions, and emergent properties. We explain how these concepts were used in the development of a robotic arm.
Long‐run Positions and Short‐run Dynamics in a Classical Growth Model
Authors: Bruno Olivier
Published: March 2003

The aim of this paper is to study the qualitative impact of short‐run disequilibria on long‐run positions. In this perspective, we refer to a classical framework. We underline that one‐sector classical growth models only deal with perfectly adjusted situations (steady‐state equilibria). Such models assume that short‐run dynamics are neutral in the long run which means that the steady state is defined independently of the transient dynamics. In order to show that this situation is not always realized, we propose a modified version of Kurz's growth model (“Technical change, growth and distribution: a steady‐state approach to ‘unsteady’ growth”, in Kurz H. D.: Capital Distribution and Effective Demand, Blackwell, Oxford, 1990, pp. 210–239) that integrates short‐run disequilibria. We obtain dynamics that exhibit a multiplicity of equilibria. Therefore, short‐run events can no longer be neglected, since they contribute to the emergence of the long‐run equilibrium.
Bargaining Health Benefits in the Workplace: An Inside View
Authors: Montagne C.
Published: March 2003

In early 1999, as a professor of health economics and a union representative at a major university, I served on a health benefits bargaining committee, preparing for formal contract negotiations to begin that summer. The committee had an “issue‐based” bargaining format and consisted of faculty union representatives and members of the university administration. They were asked to submit a report that the bargainers could use in the formal negotiations. Both the union representatives and the members of the university administration hoped that the committee could prepare the bargainers well enough so that they would not have to settle health care issues using last‐minute compromises and ad hoc formulas. This article examines the process of writing this report and its results.

Negotiating health care coverage in the workplace is a fundamental issue in health care reform in the United States. Largely because of historical factors, most Americans receive health benefits through their (or their spouse's) employer, benefits that are provided and bargained as part of a larger wage and salary package.

Before contract negotiations in 1999, the author served on an "issue‐based" health benefits committee of faculty union representatives and university administrators. Although the committee solicited estimates from health insurers regarding the impact of higher copayments on monthly premiums, in subsequent negotiations, the projected cost savings did not lead to changes in coverage or copayments. The explanations offered are (1) national or regional employers may be reluctant to raise employees' health benefit copayments when labor markets are tight; (2) collective bargaining, particularly when other, nonmonetary issues are being bargained, may lead to results different from those from a strictly competitive model; and (3) employers with market power in the product market may shift these higher costs to consumers through higher prices.
Trusting in the Future: The Distinct Advantage of Nonprofit HMOs
Authors: Lawrence David M. , Mattingly Patrick H. , Ludden John M.
Published: March 2003

Managed care's success in improving the health status of communities can be directly attributed to the not‐for‐profits. Three of the major organizations—Harvard Community Health Plan, Kaiser Permanente, and Group Health Cooperative of Puget Sound—in this category have participated in the critical public policy debates of the past 30 years, have conducted and funded data‐based research, and have trained numerous U.S. primary care physicians for practice. An emphasis on health, rather than profits, has led them to favor community rating. Not‐for‐profits have created an environment that encourages good relationships between patients and professional caregivers. They have discovered that delivering superior care is the most effective way to control costs, and they have done this while fostering partnerships with organized labor. It is critical for the not‐for‐profits to communicate their obvious advantages to the general public in order to ensure their survival.
The Politics of “Drive‐Through Deliveries”: Putting Early Postpartum Discharge on the Legislative Agenda
Authors: Declercq Eugene , Simmes Diana
Published: March 2003

Since May 25, 1995, twenty‐nine states have adopted “early discharge” legislation or comparable regulations, mandating insurers to cover minimum postpartum hospital stays. The topic of early discharge moved onto the agenda with notable speed, despite a lack of empirical evidence to support either those insurers who reduced the postpartum length of stay for mothers and babies or the new statutes that protected their right to longer stays. The new laws' simplicity and low cost as unfunded mandates accounted for much of their appeal, as did the symbolic power of the issue to doctors and patients, frustrated by managed care. Emotional constituent anecdotes, unsupported by definitive research findings, also influenced legislators.
Quality at a Crossroads
Authors: Coye Molly Joel , Detmer Don E.
Published: March 2003

Two leading health policy experts summarize the highlights of the National Roundtable on Health Care Quality that was sponsored by the Institute of Medicine.
The Role of Independent Agents in the Success of Health Insurance Market Reforms
Authors: Hall Mark A.
Published: March 2003

The impact of reforms on the health insurance markets cannot be understood without more information about the role played by insurance agents and a closer analysis of their contribution. An in‐depth, qualitative study of insurance‐market reforms in seven illustrative states forms the basis for this report on how agents help to shape the efficiency and fairness of insurance markets. Different types of agents relate to insurers in their own ways and are compensated differently. This study shows agents to be almost uniformly enthusiastic about guaranteed‐issue requirements and other components of market reforms. Although insurers devise strategies for manipulating agents in order to avoid undesirable business, these opportunities are limited and do not appear to be seriously undermining the effectiveness of market reforms. Despite the layer of cost that agents add to the system, they play an important role in making market reforms work, and they fill essential information and service functions for which many purchasers have no ready substitute.
Meeting the Health Care Needs of Persons with Disabilities
Authors: Clancy Carolyn M. , Andresen Elena M.
Published: March 2003

The mission of the agency for healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) is to conduct and fund research to support improvement in health outcomes; strengthen quality measurement and improvement; and identify strategies to improve access to, encourage the appropriate use of, and reduce unnecessary expenditures in health care. The AHRQ's reauthorization (1999) directed the agency to address health care issues for such priority populations as low‐income groups, minorities, women, children, the elderly, the disabled, and other individuals with special health care needs.

One of the AHRQ's responses was to establish the Office of Priority Populations Research to provide leadership for research on the improvement of health care for these populations. To achieve this goal, we are developing an agenda that addresses these populations' needs and also collaborates with other research funders. Identifying opportunities for health care research that improves health care for persons with disabilities (PWDs) will inevitably lead to debates about the relevance of current and prior research, whether the experiences of any of these populations are unique or shared with other groups, and how these research needs can best be met.

The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) has established the Office of Priority Populations Research and is currently developing a research agenda to improve health care for persons with disability (PWDs). This article describes the background of and potential for the AHRQ disability agenda and some of the challenges ahead and considers future directions for disability‐related health services research. Strategies for this agenda might include ensuring the inclusion of PWDs in current and future health care research studies and database development; support for studies and data focusing exclusively on PWDs; and support for studies of the challenges common to all or most of the priority populations.
On Biological and Cognitive Neuroscience
Authors: Stoljar Daniel , Gold Ian
Published: March 2003

Many philosophers and neuroscientists defend a view we express with the slogan that mental science is neuroscience. We argue that there are two ways of interpreting this view, depending on what is meant by ‘neuroscience’. On one interpretation, the view is that mental science is cognitive neuroscience, where this is the science that integrates psychology with the biology of the brain. On another interpretation, the view is that mental science is biological neuroscience, where this is the investigation concerned with the chemistry, physiology and anatomy of neurons and neuronal assemblies. Since the claim about cognitive neuroscience is a scientific triviality, we concentrate on the claim about biological neuroscience, and criticise two initially promising lines of argument for it, one prompted by reflection on the history of biology, and one prompted by reflection on the neurophysiological process known as long‐term potentiation, which may be implicated in learning. We argue that neither of these arguments is successful in supporting the view that mental science is biological neuroscience.
Refining the Explanation of Cotard’s Delusion
Authors: Gerrans Philip
Published: March 2003

Recent work in cognitive neuropsychiatry explains the Capgras and Cotard delusions as alternative explanations of unusual qualitative states caused by dam‐age to an affective component of the face recognition system. The difference between the delusions results from differences in attributional style. Cotard patients typically exhibit a style of internal attribution associated with depression, while Capgras patients exhibit the external attribution style more typical of paranoia. Thus the Cotard patient attributes her condition to drastic changes in herself and the Capgras patient attributes the same changes to alterations in the environment. I suggest three modifications to this explanation. Firstly, the nature of the affective deficit in Cotard cases may be more global than in Capgras cases, resulting from the diffuse effects of the neurochemical substrate of depression. Secondly, this explanation gives us additional insight into the content of the delusion. It is unsurprising that persons whose global affective responses were suppressed would explain their lack of response by saying that they had no bodily existence. Finally I suggest that in Cotard cases the delusion is produced by a reasoning deficit, rather than attributional style.
Reference and Deference
Authors: Woodfield Andrew
Published: March 2003

According to Putnam, meaning and reference depend on acts of structured cooperation between language‐users. For example, laypeople defer to experts regarging the conditions under which something may be called ’gold’. A modest expert may defer to a greater expert. Question: can deference be never‐ending? Two theories say no. I expound these, then criticize them. The theories deal with semantic processes bound by a ’stopping’ constraint which are not cases of ordimary deferring. Deferring is normally done for a reason, and a rational person is always disposed to defer if there is good reason.
The Self and What It’s Like to Be One: Reviews of José Luis Bermúdez, The Paradox of Self‐Conciousness and Lawrence Weiskrantz, Consiousness Lost and Found
Authors: Levine Joseph
Published: March 2003

Books reviewed in this article:

José Luis Bermú dez, The Paradox of Self‐Conciousness

Lawrence Weiskrantz, Conciousness Lost and Found: A Neuropsychological Exploration
Understanding Minds and Understanding Communicated Meanings in Schizophrenia
Authors: Langdon Robyn , Davies Martin , Coltheart Max
Published: March 2003

The work reported in this paper investigated the putative functional dependence of pragmatic language skills on general mind‐reading capacity by testing theory‐of‐mind abilities and understanding of non‐literal speech in patients with schizophrenia and in healthy controls. Patients showed difficulties with inferring mental states on a false‐belief picture‐sequencing task and with understanding metaphors and irony on a story‐comprehension task. These difficulties were independent of low verbal IQ and a more generalised problem inhibiting prepotent information. Understanding of metaphors and understanding of irony made significant and independent contributions to discriminating patients from controls, suggesting that metaphor and irony make distinct pragmatic demands.
Making it Articulated
Authors: Stanley Jason
Published: March 2003

I argue in favor of the view that all the constituents of the propositions hearers would intuitively believe to be expressed by utterances are the result of assigning values to the elements of the sentence uttered, and combining them in accord with its structure. The way I accomplish this is by questioning the existence of some of the processes that theorists have claimed underlie the provision of constituents to the propositions recovered by hearers in linguistic interpretation, processes that apparently bypass assigning these constituents to elements of the logical form of the expression uttered.
The International Energy Workshop: Results of the 1997 Poll
Authors: Schrattenholzer Leo
Published: March 2003

The International Energy Workshop consists of a network of analysts from across the world concerned with international energy issues. Since 1981, the IEW has been organising an annual poll of projections of crude oil prices, economic growth, primary energy consumption and production, the energy trade and, beginning in the early 1990s, energy‐related carbon emissions. Submitted projections are for 1990–2020 in ten‐year steps; recently, 2050 and 2100 have been added, to cater for climate change scenarios. The IEW poll encourages the submission of responses for five world regions.

This paper presents a summary of findings in the 1997 poll. Highlights include the following.

The poll medians for 1997 suggest a crude oil price, in 1990 purchasing power, of $20/b in 2000, $27/b in 2010 and $28/b in 2020. Unlike for 2000 and 2010, the 2020 figure diverges considerably from that of the 1996 poll, which registered $39/b.

Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union are not expected to be major global oil exporters until 2010 at least, while China will become a net importer in 2000. OPEC will meet about half global demand by 2020.

World primary energy consumption is expected to increase from 8,500 mtoe in 1990 to 13,000 mtoe in 2020. In this period, oil will lose almost seven percentage points of market share, while natural gas will almost double its absolute contribution. OPEC’s natural gas exports are projected to rise from 55 mtoe in 1990 to 300 mtoe in 2020.

Finally, the paper compares different projections for decarbonisation, that is, the decline rates of the carbon intensity of GDP and of primary energy supply. It notes that, according to business‐as‐usual projections, the OECD is way off target in meeting the emissions‐reductions goals of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
The Geopolitics of Natural Gas in Asia
Authors: Bahgat Gawdat
Published: March 2003

Over the last few years, natural gas has been the fastest‐growing component of primary world energy consumption. This study seeks to examine the recent efforts by the Islamic Republic of Iran, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to develop their natural gas resources and capture a large share of the Asian market, particularly in Turkey, India, China, Japan and South Korea. Counter‐efforts by rivals, such as the Russian Federation and the Caspian Basin states, are analysed. Finally, international ventures to transport natural gas from producers to consumers, including the Dolphin Project, the Trans‐Caspian Pipeline and Blue Stream, are discussed.
The Variation in Wage Rigidity by Occupation and Union Status in the Us
Authors: Campbell III Carl M.
Published: March 2003

This study estimates wage equations with data disaggregated by occupation and union status, and it derives two measures of wage rigidity for each group of workers: the sensitivity of wages to unemployment and the speed with which wages respond to price inflation. The sensitivity of wages to an aggregate measure of unemployment was found to depend negatively on an occupation's skill level. In addition, union wages were more sensitive to unemployment than non‐union wages and responded less rapidly to price inflation.
Potential Unemployment Benefit Duration and Spell Length: Lessons from a Quasi‐Experiment in Austria
Authors: Winter‐Ebmer Rudolf
Published: March 2003

The paper studies the effect of potential unemployment benefit duration on the length of unemployment spells in Austria. It takes advantage of a quasi‐experimental situation, where potential benefit duration was extended in 1988 for elderly workers living in specific regions of the country. The empirical analysis shows that men react significantly to benefit duration whereas women generally do not. The quantitative impact is smaller than in comparable studies for the US and Germany. Furthermore, the impact of extended benefit duration is differentiated for short and long spells. Whereas for long spells higher impacts for men as well as for women are found, no unemployment‐prolonging effects for short spells could be detected.