The influence of the El Niño phenomenon on appearance of large-scale forest fires and their ecological consequences
Authors: Chernogor L. F. , Nekos A. N. , Titenko G. V. , Chornohor L. L. 
Published: December 2024

The frequency and intensity of forest fires is increasing year by year. It is due to global warming, which is associated with both natural and anthropogenic phenomena and processes There is another mechanism of global impact on the weather, abnormally high summer temperatures, severity and frequency of droughts, intensity and frequency of forest fires and their consequences. It is associated with the unique, cyclical, natural phenomenon of El Niño. The possibility of this phenomenon influence on the intensity of large-scale forest fires and their ecological consequences cannot be excluded, in accordance with the analysis of these processes and their quantitative assessment. There is reason to believe that the phenomenon may affect the intensity and frequency of forest fires in countries nearby. Such a country is, in particular, Chile, which experiences intense forest fires every year. Their intensity is compared to the intensity of record fires in Ukraine in 2020.

Purpose. Comparative assessment of the ecological consequences of large-scale forest fires stimulated by natural and anthropogenic impacts (using the example of Ukraine and Chile in 2014–2024).

Methods. Analytical review of the research problem, systems analysis of a number of accompanying processes, mathematical modeling and theoretical calculations. A methodology has been developed for assessing the ecological consequences of fires and burning of buildings in populated areas.

Results. Areas of fires in 2017 and 2023 reached 0,5 million ha in Chile. Smoke ejections approached 10 Mt, which was one hundred thousand times higher than the norm. There were about 0,5 Gt of carbon dioxide ejections. They exceeded the background value in the fire areas by 200 times. The ejection of soot, carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons exceeded the norm by 120 thousand, 4 thousand and 160 times, respectively. Ejections of PM 2.5 microparticles and polyaromatic hydrocarbons exceeded the norm by 40 million and more than a million times, respectively. Ejections of nitrogen and sulfur oxides exceeded the norm by 3 thousand and 400–800 times, respectively. The combustion energy exceeded 2 thousand PJ, and the average combustion power exceeded 1 TW. The acoustic radiation energy, reaching 7 PJ, exceeded the background value by more than 1000 times. At the same time, the power of this radiation exceeded the norm by more than one hundred thousand times and was about 700 GW. Nitrogen ejections were the largest, reaching 1–10 Mt. The ejection of potassium, calcium, iron, zinc, chromium, and bromine was significant. The ejections of other chemical elements were significantly less. The construction of mathematical models made it possible to calculate the concentration and mass of harmful substances emitted during the burning of populated areas caused by forest fires. For the first time, it was established that ejections of substances during this can be significant. For the first time, the need to take into account the influence of micron smoke particles and polyaromatic hydrocarbons, which lead, respectively, to diseases of the respiratory tract, cardiovascular system and oncological diseases of residents of the entire country and beyond, was substantiated, and their mass and concentration have been calculated. Ejections of nitrogen and sulfur oxides, which stimulate the occurrence of acid rain, have been assessed. A comparative analysis of the characteristics and consequences of forest fires showed that they were more large-scale in Chile in 2017 and 2023 (almost 20 times) and in February 2024 than the record fires in Ukraine in 2020 in terms of their parameters and consequences.

Conclusions. Mathematical modeling and calculations showed that the ecological consequences of large forests and buildings burning in Chile in 2023–2024 were catastrophic. They were accompanied by an intensification of the El Niño phenomenon. No less widespread were the ecological consequences of large-scale forest fires in Chile in 2017, caused by the hottest summer at that time. The size scale of fires in Chile and their consequences were many times higher than the corresponding parameters for the record fires in Ukraine in 2020.