bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The Relationship Between Refined Product Imports and Refined Product Prices in the United States
Authors: Gonzales John J.
Published: May 2011

Since the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) emerged in the early 1970s as a dominating force in the world petroleum market, much effort has been devoted to investigating the relationship between U.S. demand for crude oil imports, the world price of crude oil, and the domestic price of crude oil.' Little attention has been paid, however, to the role of refined product imports in the U.S. market. My purpose is to fill this gap through an empirical investigation of the "competitiveness" of refined product imports in the domestic market. The focus will be on the motor gasoline, residual fuel oil, middle distillates, and jet fuel markets, as these four products account for most domestic product consumption.
Change and Continuity
Authors: Frankel P. H.
Published: May 2011

This award, which elevates me to the ranks of its previous distin- guished recipients, gives me great pleasure, especially since I am the first non-American to receive it. This in itself is an indication of the ever-widening scope of the Association. It comes to me at the end of a long life devoted to our industry. It is almost sixty years since I entered it as a junior business executive ... It is now forty years since I wrote my first book, appropriately titled Essentials of Petroleum, and almost thirty years since I left business to make my hobby my job when I formed Petroleum Economics Ltd., an international consulting firm.
Energy and Economy: Global Interdependences
Authors: Hogan William W.
Published: May 2011

This meeting, the Seventh International Conference of the International Association of Energy Economists (IAEE), finds us again in the midst of transitions in energy markets. Continued adjustments in oil demand, natural gas bubbles in Europe and North America, closures of refineries, and concerns about acid rain are just a few of the issues that reflect the turbulence and continued change in energy concerns and policy. This list of challenges suggests opportunities for energy economists to contribute their special perspectives to the clarification of issues and options. At an international conference, we can reinforce communications across national boundaries as we consider our related problems.
Oil and Rival Energy Sources
Authors: Despraries P. C.
Published: May 2011

Mr. President, Very Honorable Minister Jochimsen, Ladies and Gentlemen: Several weeks ago, when my friend Jane Carter so greatly honored me by inviting me to make this talk, she mentioned my "unique" experience with international oil and energy markets. This word unique seems to me to be a good semantic example of overstatement such as is fairly rarely found in English except when required by specific circumstances. We are all unique in this room. The president-elect of your association invited me to take off for the summits and to describe from up there the wonderful countryside of our Earth, irrigated by the economy and lit up by energy, the two sources of mankind's wealth and the subject of this conference. But when I began to spread my wings, I found that the countryside beneath me was extraordinarily familiar and that it was hard to find much of anything to describe that you had not already depicted yourselves hundreds of times.
Validating Allocation Functions in Energy Models: An Experimental Methodology
Authors: Kerry Smith V. , Hill Lawrence J.
Published: May 2011

In the late 1970s, the Energy Information Administration initiated a program calling for review and evaluation of its data and validation of energy models used in support of the policymaking process. One of the more controversial aspects of this program was the effort to validate the large-scale energy models developed under DOE auspices and, in some cases, still under development. As all participants in this process (i.e., modelers and evaluators) acknowledge, there is no absolute standard by which a model can be validated. By definition, a model is an approximation to some real-world process. It abstracts from the complexities of the process but is intended to capture essential dimensions of the forces governing outcomes of that process. Consequently, all evaluations of a model involve judgment. To illustrate the prospects for divergent yet individually sensible judgments of an energy model, consider a recent appraisal of the Regional Demand Forecasting Model (RDFOR).
A Survey of Canadian Energy Policy: 1974-1983
Authors: McRae Robert N.
Published: May 2011

Canadian energy policies have been strongly influenced by external events. Like most other countries of the world, Canada adjusted its energy policies in reaction to the OPEC oil price shocks of 1973-1974 and 1979. Canadian energy policies also have been influenced by U.S. energy policies (through trade links) and by the dominant presence of many foreign-controlled multinational petroleum firms.
Modeling Energy Conservation Programs: An Application to Natural Gas Utilities
Authors: Rose Adam
Published: May 2011

In recent years conservation received a great deal of attention from energy managers at all levels. Some conservation measures were undertaken voluntarily because they were profitable. Others were adopted to comply with regulations, many of which were intended to reduce social costs of energy production and delivery. The 1970s have been characterized as the era of natural gas shortages, and conservation represented one of many reasonable alternatives for utilities confronted by potential and actual excess demand.
On the Use of Double-Log Forms in Energy Demand Analysis
Authors: Plourde Andre , Ryan David
Published: May 2011

The double-logarithmic demand function has been used widely in static energy demand studies. Recent examples include studies of electricity demand by Betancourt (1981) and Dias-Bandaranaike and Munasinghe (1983), of petroleum consumption by Brown (1983), and natural gas demand by Gowdy (1983). In this paper we examine some theoretical issues on the use of these functional forms in energy demand analysis and note a few related problems. Our analysis draws from the study by Dias-Bandaranaike and Munasinghe (1983) (hereafter DBM) recently published in The Energy Journal, Volume 4, Number 2. We concentrate on this paper for several reasons. First, it examines some of the theoretical underpinnings of double-log demand functions. Second, the authors claim that one of the contributions of their study is "[an] approach ... to derive demand functions [that] could be used to derive similar functions for other types of goods and services, besides electricity". Third, their study inadvertently reveals a number of problems that arise when the overriding concern is obtaining demand equations of the double-log form.
Demand for Electricity of Small Nonresidential Customers under Time-Of-Use (TOU) Pricing
Authors: Woo Chi-Keung
Published: May 2011

After the oil crisis of 1973, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in 1976 ordered Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGandE) to charge its large nonresidential customers with monthly billing demand of over 4000 kilowatts (kW) mandatory time-of-use rates. Using a translog (TLOG) specification attributable to Christensen, Jorgenson, and Lau (1973), Chung and Aigner (1981) estimate the electricity demand price elasticities by time-of-use for 64 of these customers in 13 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code groups. Own-price elasticity estimates are generally around -0.1 and at times can be as high as -0.5, or they have the wrong sign. Cross-price elasticity estimates indicate that electricity usages by time-of-use are mostly substitutes. However, the estimated price responsiveness typically is larger than observed usages (see below and the section, Experimental Design and Data). Moreover, positive own-price elasticity estimates, though not statistically significant, raise further doubts about the validity of empirical results.
Future World Oil Prices and Production Levels: An Economic Analysis
Authors: Marshalla Robert A. , Nesbitt Dale M.
Published: May 2011

This paper is motivated by our beliefs that (1) economics does matter in world oil markets and (2) today's applied models either entirely neglect or (at best) only partially incorporate well-known economic fundamentals. We know of no applied model preceding ours that fully embodies the fundamental microeconomics of both depletable resources and industrial market structure (specifically dominant firm cartel theory) that characterize the world oil market.
Peak and Off-Peak Industrial Demand for Electricity: The Hopkinson Rate in Ontario, Canada
Authors: Mountain Dean C. , Hsiao Cheng
Published: May 2011

The Hopkinson rate consists of an energy charge for every kilowatt- hour of electricity a customer uses, plus an additional demand charge, a peak-demand charge on the maximum usage during the month. Historically, industries in North America have generally been charged a Hopkinson rate for electricity use. In 1983, for example, 97 percent (see Blinder [1984]) of the publicly owned electric utilities in North America had demand charges in their commercial/industrial rate structure, whereas only 11 percent had time-of-day rates. However, with the exception of papers by Corio and Trimnell (1978) and Veall (1981), the focus of empirical research on industrial firms (like the focus of research in the residential sector) has been on examining the impact of time-of-use rates (e.g. Chung [1978], Chung and Aigner [1981], and Panzar and Willig [1979]).
The World Oil Market (WOM) Model: An Assessment of the Crude Oil Market Through 2000
Authors: Lorentsen Lorents , Roland Kjell
Published: May 2011

The great demand for oil price forecasts has resulted in extensive discussion of possible behavioral and structural relationships to describe this jerky market. On the supply side, much attention has been focused on the inner life of OPEC. Is it or not a cartel? Is it a cartel with a competitive fringe? How strong is the tension between high and low absorbers? Are the depletion policies derived from myopic cash requirements or from long-term optimization schemes?
Energy-Economy Interactions in Developing Countries
Authors: Blitzer Charles R.
Published: May 2011

Since 1973 the global economy has been going through a difficult transition period. After a long period of growth, characterized in part by low oil prices and increased reliance on production in a few large oil-exporting countries, it is moving toward a new equilibrium characterized by substantially higher energy costs and an energy supply base more diversified in terms of fuels as well as country import sources. This transition period is far from over. Although developing countries use only a small percentage of the world's oil (about one-sixth), their economic performance has been adversely affected by higher energy costs. Most developing countries import oil and have been caught in a dilemma of increasing foreign debt and/or reducing economic growth. On average, in 1981 the oil-importing LDCs spent 38 percent of their export earnings on imported oil, and domestic energy investments accounted for about 25 percent of aggregate investment. These percentages may increase because of industrialization plans and diminishing supplies of traditional fuels for household and agricultural use.
Gasoline Demand Survey
Authors: Dahl Carol A.
Published: May 2011

Gasoline demand, which represents almost a quarter of world petroleum consumption, has been the focus of a considerable amount of econometric work since the 1973 oil embargo. However, researchers and policymakers when considering this work are confronted with a bewildering array of elasticities and results that come from a variety of data sets and model types. This survey stratifies these elasticities for statistical analysis and development of summary elasticities, identifies basic issues, and illustrates a strategy for summarizing studies that should be useful to policymakers and researchers in any area of applied work. Because space prohibits discussing all of this work, this survey is limited to those studies that have estimates for gasoline demand, vehicle miles traveled, and miles per gallon.
The Cost of OCS Bid Rejection
Authors: Kobrin Paul R.
Published: May 2011

The U.S. Interior Department periodically offers Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) tracts for lease at seated bid auction. The bid variable typically is the bonus, a sum paid by the lessee at commencement of the lease. A tract is awarded only to the high bidder. However, the seller often deems even the high bid insufficient, rejecting it and withholding the tract for possible later auction.
Will Mandatory Conservation Promote Energy Efficiency in the Selection of Household Appliance Stocks?
Authors: Dubin Jeffrey A.
Published: May 2011

This paper estimates a nested logit model for space heat and water heat choice using data from the National Interim Energy Consumption Survey (NIECS) by the Department of Energy in 1978. (See Dubin, 1983) for references to the data set and a detailed discussion of procedures used to prepare the data for economic analysis.) The use of micro-level disaggregated survey data to estimate discrete choice models of heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems has been very recent, but one can find a few related models in Dubin and McFadden (1984), Brownstone (1980), Goett (1979), Hausman (1979), and McFadden, Puig, and Kirschner (1977). One of the virtues of the structure developed here is that it has been embedded successfully in a larger micro-simulation system (the Residential End-Use Energy Policy System (REEPS)) for purposes of policy forecasting (Goett [1979]).
Household Discount Rates Revisited
Authors: Hartman Raymond S. , Doane Michael J.
Published: May 2011

Energy policy analysts (Hausman [1979], Hartman [1984], Houston [1983], Hutton [1980], and Olsen [1984]) increasingly rely on some notion of life-cycle costing for predicting how consumers will choose among alternative energy-using durable-good investments. These techniques have been important for understanding and analyzing the household purchase of new, relatively-untested appliance technologies (such as solar water heaters and more efficient refrigerators), new energy sources (such as solar photovoltaics), and capital-intensive conservation investments (such as increased home insulation, storm windows, and water heat wraps). In all of these cases, consumers face options in which a higher capital cost will purchase lower operating costs over the life of the particular pieces of equipment. We assume consumers evaluate these energy-using durables as they would any other investment. They compare and discount, over the life of the investments, the costs and financial benefits of alternatives and choose the option(s) offering the largest expected benefit.
The Diminishing Role of Regulation in the Natural Gas Industry
Authors: Stalon Charles C.
Published: May 2011

The natural gas industry grew to maturity under a system of strong monopoly power of pipelines and local distribution companies (LDCs) and balkanized markets at wellheads and burnertips. Recent developments in the industry, especially phased deregulation of wellhead prices implemented by the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978 (NGPA) and competition induced by the gas bubble since 1982, have somewhat reduced pipeline monopoly power in some markets. Considerations of economic efficiency and economic justice now require that competitive forces be strengthened further. The FERC's Order 436 was an attempt to do that.
A Residential Demand Charge: Evidence from the Duke Power Time-of-Day Pricing Experiment
Authors: Taylor Thomas N. , Schwarz Peter M.
Published: May 2011

Demand charges account for one-third to one-half of industrial and commercial electricity bills, and yet they have been virtually ignored, both theoretically and practically, as a component of residential tariffs. Our objective here is twofold: (1) to model and test the effects of a time-of-use demand charge on residential consumer behavior and (2) to evaluate, theoretically and empirically, its influence on utility system peak. Among the pragmatic issues are the effects of sustained hot weather on household response and the effects of the charge on demand at time of system peak compared to billing demand.
Changes in Oil Demand in Oil-importing Developing Countries: The Case of the Philippines
Authors: Sathaye Jayant , Meyers Stephen
Published: May 2011

Oil and energy use in developing countries has undergone a significant evolution in the past several years. For nearly all oil-importing developing countries (OIDCs), the two sharp oil price increases in 1973-1974 and 1978-1979 brought a large rise in import bills. With the 1973-1974 price rise, there is some indication that short-run impacts on the external economy were handled without major disruption (Dunkerley and Steinfeld, 1980). The second oil price increase, combined with worldwide recession and the diminishing world trade, caused economic growth to stagnate far more than did the first price increase (tiara, 1984).
Integrated National Energy Planning: A Case Study of the Republic of Korea
Authors: Ahn Byong-hun , Kim Hyung-wook , Nesbitt Dale M. , Phillips Robert L.
Published: May 2011

Like other oil-importing countries, the Republic of Korea was surprised by the rapid oil price escalation of the 1970s. Following the lead of the United States, Europe, and Japan, Korea's energy policy in the mid-1970s was based on reducing oil imports by substituting other fuels, installing more efficient oil conversion processes, or doing without. Due in part to the urgency of the situation and in part to a lack of accumulated analytical capability, it was difficult to analyze in depth which alternatives were best, how much they would cost, or to what extent it was in Korea's best interests to bear large economic costs to reduce oil imports. Rather, Korean policymakers implemented a broad-based oil consumption reduction program to mitigate their immediate oil import problem.
Oil Supply Disruptions and the Role of the International Energy Agency
Authors: Bohi Douglas R. , Toman Michael A.
Published: May 2011

This paper examines key crisis management provisions of the IEA Agreement in relation to the interests of member countries in energy security cooperation' and considers ways these interests might be further served by altering the agreement. Two observations underlie both the motivation and thrust of this investigation. The first is that the potential benefits to members of energy security cooperation are likely to be substantial.' Thus, it may be assumed that TEA members have an incentive to find methods inside or outside the agreement for reaping at least part of these gains. Given these incentives, it is important to consider how potential gains from cooperation can be achieved in practice.
Efficient Pricing During Oil Supply Disruptions
Authors: Gilbert Richard J. , Mork Knut Anton
Published: May 2011

Recent events in the oil market make it easy to forget the policy problems of dealing with supply interruptions. Realizing that history tends to repeat itself and that crises are not conducive to good decisions, it seems worthwhile, therefore, to examine the problem of efficient pricing in the wake of an oil price shock.
Energy, Electricity, and the U.S. Economy: Emerging Trends
Authors: Sioshansi Fereidoon P.
Published: May 2011

With memories of the energy crisis fading in the midst of an oil glut, one can reflect with objectivity on events of the past two decades. Many papers published in the past several years have attempted to analyze post-embargo energy trends and made observations on whether these new trends represent abberations in long-term relationships or represent fundamental changes in energy-economic interactions.
The Value of Australia’s Natural Cas Resource—A Linear Programing Analysis
Authors: Stocks K. J. , Musgrove A. R. de L.
Published: May 2011

Natural gas prices in Australia have evolved from long-term contracts negotiated when energy prices were considerably lower than they are today.' Following the increases in the world price of oil and the Australian government's policy to price new indigenous oil supplies at the world parity price, it seemed that natural gas was being undervalued. A vigorous debate ensued. One side maintained that gas should also be priced on the domestic market to reflect the value of LNG in the world market. A similar view asserted that gas ought to be priced at the energy-equivalent value of crude oil.
Impact of Biomass Availability on Selection of Optimal Energy Systems and Cost of Energy
Authors: Shukla P. R. , Moulik T. K.
Published: May 2011

This paper assesses the impact of biomass availability on the selection of optimal energy systems, allocation of energy to various energy needs, and cost of energy to villages. Proposals are considered for the development of biomass resources and subsidization of biomass-based energy systems. The analysis applies the Mixed Integer Linear Programming (MILP) optimization model to four villages under existing conditions, as well as under various proposals affecting biomass availability and costs of energy systems using biomass. It is based on a comprehensive study (Moulik and Shukla, 1985) that contains many details beyond the scope of this paper.
The Great Transition: Energy and Economic Change
Authors: Jorgenson Dale W.
Published: May 2011

This paper examines the interactions between energy prices and economic growth since the first world oil crisis in 1973. Its title comes from a report by the Swedish National Energy Administration. The report, which details the transition of the world economy from low-priced to high-priced energy, is an excellent overview of the interrelationships between industrialized economies and international energy markets.
U.S. Residential Demand for Wood
Authors: Bryant Richard R.
Published: May 2011

A recent nationwide survey estimated that approximately 20 million households in the United States use wood as a source of heating fuel and that about 30 percent of those use wood as their primary source of space heat.' In two studies of total wood energy consumption, the U.S. Department of Energy suggests that residential wood energy use declined from the turn of the century to the mid-1970s but increased by more than 130 percent from 1973 to 1980 and by another 8 percent from 1980 to 1983.2 These studies report that by 1983 wood provided about 9.6 percent of residential end-use energy consumption and approximately 14 percent of total household heating fuel consumption. Moreover, residential wood energy use is expected to continue to increase. The Office of Technology Assessment has projected a tripling of fuelwood use between 1979 and 2000 under a business as usual scenerio and almost a sevenfold increase with "vigorous support and high energy prices."
Short-Term Price Formation in the U.S. Uranium Market: A Comment
Authors: Banks Ferdinand E.
Published: May 2011

The recent paper in The Energy Journal by A. D. Owen (1985) provided another important example of an econometric relationship for short-term pricing very similar to those presented by Fisher, Cootner, and Baily (1972) for copper, and Banks (1971) for refined zinc. This short comment merely adds an observation to the pricing behavior discussed by Owen. Other useful presentations of this topic are Owen (1983), and Stephany, Bauder, and Lurf (1981).
A North American Gas Trade Model (GTM)
Authors: Beltramo Mark A. , Marine Alan S. , Weyant John P.
Published: May 2011

Natural gas ranks second only to crude oil as a primary source of energy in North America, During recent years, gas has satisfied 25 percent of all energy requirements in the United States. Most of this gas has been produced domestically, but 5 to 10 percent has been supplied by pipeline imports from Canada and Mexico. Additional amounts could be provided by pipelines from Alaska or by LNG (liquefied natural gas) imports from overseas, but these facilities would be expensive, and their construction continues to be delayed. Transport costs are high, and geography plays a far more important role in international gas markets than in the oil markets. For this reason, we view the North American continent as a largely self-contained system.
Price Discrimination Limits in Relation to the Death Spiral
Authors: Henderson Stephen J.
Published: May 2011

It is well known that a public utility commission may be able to improve overall social welfare by allowing decreasing-cost industries (such as local public utilities) to price discriminate. For this course of action to be practical, the following conditions must prevail: (1) marginal-cost prices do not cover costs and (2) external subsidies are not feasible. Consequently, the need to raise prices above marginal costs means that some social welfare, measured as the sum of consumer's and producer's surplus, for example, must be sacrificed to allow the utility to break even. To minimize this sacrifice, the proportional deviation of price from marginal cost for each service should be correspondingly larger for markets with inelastic demands than for those in which demand is elastic.' This type of inverse elasticity rule seldom is used in practice and is cited here only to illustrate that pure value-of-service pricing may improve overall social welfare.
The Failure of Solar Tax Incentives: A Dynamic Analysis
Authors: Sav Thomas G.
Published: May 2011

In recent years we have witnessed governmental attempts to acceler- ate the stock demand for energy-saving durables with financial incentives implemented through the tax mechanism. At the federal level, income tax credits for the purchase of energy-saving durable stocks were introduced through the Energy Tax Act of 1978 (Public Law 95-618). In addition, many states have enacted their own energy-saving tax incentive legislation. A substantial body of this tax legislation has been aimed at accelerating substitution of solar-produced energy for conventional, nonrenewable energy resources in the residential and commercial building sectors. Along these lines, the bulk of engineering (so-called life-cycle) cost studies accompanying much of this legislation predicted that solar tax incentives would generate widespread market penetration with little or no delay.' However, casual observation reveals that tax-induced solar energy substitutions have not been widespread. This paper presents a dynamic model of investment decisions in solar processes-a model that captures the effect of tax legislation aimed at accelerating market penetration of solar energy.
An Integrated Analysis of U.S. Oil Security Policies
Authors: Murphy Frederic H. , Toman Michael A. , Weiss Howard J.
Published: May 2011

Despite waning governmental interest, the current world oil market provides a valuable opportunity for reflecting on how U.S. policies can be structured to best guard against future disruptions in oil supplies. A vast literature on this subject has developed over the past few years. Yet, important points of disagreement remain.
Optimal Seasonal Distillate Inventory
Authors: Tiplitz Charles
Published: May 2011

This paper summarizes an investigation of the seasonal inventory of distillate (heating) oil. My object was to determine the extra amount of distillate stock (usually called seasonal stock) to be held at the primary echelon at the beginning of the heating season (about October 31). It began with the usual belief that some traditional amount of heating oil stock be available at the beginning of the heating season. This traditional amount had been based on trends of seasonal stocks adjusted for weather and other demand changes and overlooked such things as optima price theory. Even so, this approach was flawed because seasonal patterns had become so much less severe that conventional, even careful extrapolation produced misleading and inconsistent results.
Energy Prospects and Policies in the PRC
Authors: Yingzhong Lu
Published: May 2011

Commercial energy consumption (excluding rural areas) in the People's Republic of China (PRC) in 1983 amounted to some 656 million tons coal equivalent (tce), third largest in the world. In contrast to most developed and developing countries (except the USSR and the OPEC nations), the PRC is able to meet all its commercial energy needs from a variety of domestic sources. Starting from the very low level of 1949 (when the present regime came to power), total energy production increased by 27.65 times, more rapidly than the gross national product (19.9 times). Energy consumption per capita also has increased substantially-13.6 times during the period. However, it is still relatively low-640 kgce in 1980 as against the world average of about 2200 kgce. Further sizable demand increases are bound to occur as the PRC's development proceeds.
The Effects of Energy Prices Upon Appliance Efficiencies and Building Insulation
Authors: Einhorn Michael A.
Published: May 2011

Energy economists have long recognized the fact that changes in energy prices can affect the demand for energy in several ways (e.g., see Fisher and Kaysen, 1962; Taylor, 1975). In the short run, energy users can change their utilization of a fixed appliance stock or a fixed set of capital equipment. In the long run, a user may change the makeup of his appliance stock by purchasing appliances he has never owned in the past, allowing certain appliances to retire unreplaced, and replacing worn-out devices with new ones of different operating efficiencies or of different fuel-using types. Recent works by economists have focused upon these various aspects of energy usage. (Prominent studies of short-run effects include Lawrence, 1982; George, 1982; Parti and Parti, 1980; and McFadden, Puig, and Kirshner, 1977.
The Competitive Floor to World Oil Prices
Authors: Adelman M.A.
Published: May 2011

Years ago, I suggested that there was no current or impending oil shortage. Growing consumption, static U.S. production, and other reasons offered then and now did not imply that prices would rise. That conclusion only made sense if the pressure on reserves was increasing, a situation that would be signaled by rising costs of maintaining and expanding output. There was and is no sign of this.
Falling Oil Prices: Where Is the Floor?
Authors: Griffin James M. , Jones Clifton T.
Published: May 2011

The recent precipitous decline in world oil prices from $28 per barrel in November 1985 to $12 per barrel in March 1986 has perplexed most industry analysts and OPEC watchers. As oil prices continue to deteriorate, the central question now seems to be: "Is there a price floor below which oil prices will not fall; and if so, where is it?" Economic theory would suggest that at some price level, short-run marginal extraction costs of oil will eventually exceed marginal revenues from that production, leading to the widespread abandonment of the relatively higher-cost oil wells currently operated by competitive producers in non-OPEC areas. Presumably, once the price of oil falls to this floor, massive production cutbacks in high-cost, non-OPEC areas due to abandonment and reductions in new drilling activity would enable the lower-cost OPEC producers to significantly expand their market shares, thereby eliminating any incentives for further price reductions.
The Economic Impact of Coal-Fired Versus Nuclear Power Plants: An Application of a General Equilibrium Model
Authors: Conrad Klaus , Henseler-Unger Iris
Published: May 2011

In recent years, the literature in the field of general equilibrium modeling has increased. For long-term energy projections, general equilibrium models are more adequate than standard econometrics in evaluating alternative economic policies in a theoretically consistent framework. The well-known structure and economic mechanism of those models makes it easier to analyze structural changes of prices and quantities demanded or supplied for a given data set of an economy, national income accounts figures, and trade balance effects. The dynamic formulation of these models via investment decisions and capital formation also enables an intertemporal interpretation of structural adjustment and growth processes.
Residential Gas Cooling: A Life-cycle Approach
Authors: Itteilag Richard L. , Swanson Christina A.
Published: May 2011

The outlook for increased gas cooling use has not only improved because the residential air conditioning market in general has grown but also because many of the factors that depressed gas air conditioner sales earlier have been eliminated. First, the gas cooling equipment available today is more reliable and durable than before. During the 1960s, deficiencies in the gas absorption air conditioner caused an annual failure rate of about 8 percent. It is now less than 1 percent due to a number of improvements implemented by Arkla Industries during the 1970s. For example, the stainless steel generators in the units were improved with chrome plating, which prolongs the system life of the units. The quality of the steel in the restrictors, burner tubes, and evaporator coils was also improved. Residential gas air conditioners now carry a ten-year warranty on all defects in material and workmanship on the sealed refrigeration unit, while a compressor in an electric air conditioner normally has only a one- to five-year warranty.
The Economics of Strategic Choice: U.S. Uranium Enrichment in the World Market
Authors: Bodde David L. , Quasebarth Mollie V. , Thomasian John B.
Published: May 2011

For uranium to be used as fuel in light water reactors, the concen- tration of the fissionable U-235 isotope must be increased from the 0.711 percent found in natural uranium to about 3 percent. This service, termed enrichment, has been provided by the U.S. government since commercial nuclear powerplants began to operate in the late 1950s. The U.S. enrichment enterprise enjoyed a virtual monopoly until European competitors emerged in the late 1970s. These competitors not only took over service of their own national markets, but also began to offer enrichment worldwide under terms more attractive than those available from the United States. As a result, the U.S. share of the world market has declined to 47 percent and is likely to decline further in the absence of a competitive response.
Implementing Efficient Petroleum Product Pricing Programs in Developing Countries
Authors: Krapels Edward N.
Published: May 2011

Oil prices are regulated in virtually every developing country. Economists, oil businessmen, politicians, and bureaucrats usually have diverging views on the best price for petroleum products. Costs, government objectives, and political influences all affect energy price determination (see Figure 1). The outputs-sets of energy prices over time-influence the welfare of particular groups in society as well as, naturally, society as a whole. Some sets of prices may be more efficient than others, some may be regarded as more equitable.
Price Elasticity of Demand for Oil and the Terms of Trade of the OPEC Countries
Authors: Metwally M. M. , Arab A. T.
Published: May 2011

The price elasticity of demand for oil has changed significantly since the sharp rise in oil prices in late 1973. Although oil is still a necessary commodity with a price elasticity of less than one, the policies recently introduced by many importing countries to store oil and reduce its consumption, the continuous development of energy alternatives, and the increase in oil suppliers have contributed significantly to the rise in the price elasticity of demand for this vital commodity.
Residential Demand for Electrical Appliances and Electricity in the Federal Republic of Germany
Authors: Dennerlein Rudolf K.-H.
Published: May 2011

The description and the forecast of residential electricity consumption is not only important for many areas of economic policy but also for the long-term investment plans of enterprises supplying electrical power. In the past most projections of future residential electricity demand have missed their target values. Besides erroneous assumptions concerning the development of exogeneous variables, there is strong evidence that misspecification of underlying relations and neglect of aggregation problems have contributed to this.
Sources of Labor Productivity Variation in the U.S. Surface Coal Mining Industry, 1960-1976
Authors: Rittenberg Libby , Manuel Ernest H.
Published: May 2011

Our paper analyzes the sources of labor productivity variation in U.S. bituminous coal surface mining from 1960 to 1976. The coal mining industry was among the first to experience a prolonged decline in labor productivity in the post-World War II period. In surface mining nationally, labor productivity in 1977 was 26.6 tons per worker-day, or 28 percent less than the peak of 36.7 tons per worker-day achieved in 1973. Moreover, in several major coal-producing states, the decline began much earlier and was more dramatic. For example, in West Virginia (the first state to experience declining productivity) the loss in productivity between 1965, the year in which productivity in the state peaked, and 1976 was nearly 52 percent. Eastern Kentucky experienced an even larger drop of 56 percent between 1967 and 1976. It was only the expansion of surface mining to western states in the 1970s that delayed the appearance of a national decline in productivity until the early 1970s. The industry has thus foreshadowed the labor productivity declines that subsequently occurred in other industries.
The Behavior of the Market for Energy Efficiency in Residential Appliances Including Heating and Cooling Equipment
Authors: Ruderman Henry , Levine Mark D. , McMahon James E.
Published: May 2011

Our paper provides a quantitative analysis of market behavior for the purchase of energy efficiency in residential appliances and heating and cooling equipment. Accurate forecasts of residential energy use require quantitative assessments of market decisions about energy efficiency. The results of our investigation of market behavior can lead to a better understanding of the barriers to investment in energy conservation. Understanding market behavior over time is a prerequisite to an evaluation of the need for and the importance of policies to promote energy efficiency.
Energy-Nonenergy Input Substitution in Western U.S. Agriculture: Some Findings
Authors: Gopalakrishnan Chennat
Published: May 2011

The crucial role of energy as an input in the production process has engaged the serious attention of energy planners and researchers in recent years. This was especially true after the OPEC oil embargo of 1973 and the natural gas shortages in the winter of 1976-1977. The prospect of similar energy supply disruptions and price escalations in the future has reinforced the need for adopting measures to reduce energy consumption.
IAEE 1986 Annual Conference: Debate Between T. Boone Pickens and Lester C. Thurow
Authors: Frank Helmut J.
Published: May 2011

Editor's Note: The following is a slightly edited version of the debate "Policy Implications of Oil Industry Restructuring" held at the Eighth Annual North American Conference of the I.A.E.E. in November 1986. The discussants were Mr. T. Boone Pickens (General Partner of Mesa Limited Partnership) and Professor Lester C. Thurow (noted author and the newly announced dean of M.I.T.'s Sloan School of Management). Mr. Pickens is a leader in the recent restructuring of the oil industry, while Professor Thurow is a prominent analyst of its implications. This debate (with the question-and-answer session omitted for reasons of space) is presented because of the importance of the issues discussed, the caliber of the speakers, and the colorful and lively exchange of ideas.
Direct Investment in Conservation Measures by a Public Utility
Authors: Marino Artlhony M. , Sicilian Joseph
Published: May 2011

During the period 1978-1980, public policy toward U.S.-regulated utilities mandated residential conservation programs. Public utilities encouraged residential customers to invest in home conservation measures to help meet the national goal of energy security. The actual programs growing out of this legislation can be grouped as information programs (such as the energy audit program), financial incentives or subsidy programs, and direct investment programs. Our focus is on the third type wherein the public utility itself does home-retrofit conservation work (weather stripping, caulking, storm windows and doors, and attic and wall insulation), and the residential customer pays no direct charges. (In Marino and Sicilian (1986) we provide an economic analysis of information and financial incentives programs.) Our principal goals are: (a) to give an economic explanation of why a regulated utility would want to provide conservation measures that reduce the demand for its primary product and (b) to examine whether existing regulatory structure and utility programs are likely to lead to economic efficiency in conservation investment. We also provide an idealized regulatory structure and conservation program that does lead to economic efficiency.
The Reserve-Production Ratio
Authors: Banks Ferdinand E.
Published: May 2011

A good concise examination of the significance of the reserve production (R/P) ratio for the future availability of oil can be found in a short paper by Edward W. Erickson in the Energy Journal (1985). He notes that the worldwide R/P ratio is 35, but this ratio is not uniform across the world. For the three core countries of the Gulf (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates) it is 100. For the rest of the world it is 25, although according to my calculations, for the world outside OPEC and the communist areas it may be close to 18. Furthermore, with the fall in OPEC production that has taken place over the past few years and the rise in production outside of OPEC, about half of the world oil output is now generated in areas where the aggregate R/P ratio is less than 20.
The Great Plains Gasification Project: The Problem of Juridical/Administrative Incompatibility
Authors: Solo Robert A.
Published: May 2011

Such is the public memory (and so completely has the problem vanished from the scene) that some will recall only with difficulty the vast and costly program on which President Jimmy Carter staked so much-to reduce the American dependence on imported petroleum through the production of substitute synthetic fuels from coal. The major component of that program was a project to produce a synthetic natural gas from coal. And yet even in 1982 in a special issue of The Energy Journal devoted entirely to natural gas, so absorbed were the authors with the process of decontrol, market distortions in a situation of partial decontrol, and apprehension at the prospect of a possible windfall profit tax that the matter of synthetic fuels had dropped entirely out of sight. There was not a single mention of Project Independence. Nor was there any concern for the fundamental problem of replacing a depletable and rapidly depleting resource.
The Residential Adoption of Electricity in Early Twentieth-Century America
Authors: Woolf Arthur G.
Published: May 2011

The commercial development of electricity in the late nineteenth century brought about a technological revolution comparable to, if not exceeding, the development of the steam engine more than a century earlier. While the steam engine laid the groundwork for the Industrial Revolution and altered the social, economic, and political framework of eighteenth and nineteenth-century Western Europe, the development of electricity had an equally significant impact in a later era.
Canadian Natural Gas Exports, Domestic Gas Prices, and Future Gas Supply Costs
Authors: Rowse John
Published: May 2011

Exports of Canadian natural gas hasten the day when Canadians must pay higher gas prices. Hence the desirability of exporting natural gas is strongly affected by current and future supply costs. In this paper I analyze the interaction of Canadian gas exports, domestic gas prices, and future gas supply costs using a multitemporal nonlinear optimization model of natural gas allocation. Maximizing the present value of Canadian consumer plus producer surplus and net revenues from export sales, this model allows for the spatial dispersion of gas reserves and domestic markets, the spatial dispersion of U.S. markets, differing recovery profiles for different supply options, and rising marginal costs of conventional gas supplies.
The Impact of Nuclear Power Plant Construction Activity on the Electric Utility Industry's Cost of Capital
Authors: Berry Keith , Loudenslager Samuel
Published: May 2011

All across the United States, electric utilities are now faced with the prospect of prematurely abandoning partially completed nuclear units. While there are many reasons for this dilemma,[ the ratemaking implications are profound. They force regulators to make the unsavory decision as to the appropriate allocation of the fixed costs sunk in the abandoned projects between ratepayers and stockholders.' If a significant number of these plants are abandoned, the dollars at stake (estimated to be as large as $66 billion') in any ratemaking division of accountability are staggering.
The Demand for Insulation—A Study in the Household Demand for Conservation
Authors: Khazzoom Daniel J.
Published: May 2011

This paper presents my effort to provide the means of estimating a major ingredient of the demand for conservation-namely, home insulation. A detailed account of the effort and its motivation can be found in Khazzoom (1984, 1986a). The demand relationships of this model provide one block (out of three) in a jointly determined system of demand relationships: demand for electricity, demand for insulation, and demand for efficient appliances. The study is pitched toward the service-area level. I estimated a model of the household demand for insulation in the Sacramento Municipal Utility District's (SMUD's) service area, which has a population of over 760,000.
Technology and Energy Use Before, During, and After OPEC: The U.S. Portland Cement Industry
Authors: Capone Charles A. , Elzinga Kenneth G.
Published: May 2011

For 12 years analysts have watched industries respond to increased energy prices. In particular, there has been an extensive effort to measure the substitutability of inputs in production, much of which has focused on energy and capital. We may now be at a point where the relevant question is, have firms increased the substitutability of energy with other inputs by what they have done these past 12 years, or will they be caught unawares as the current drop in oil prices precipitates a fall in the market prices of all energy sources? Will we see firm production moving back toward a more energy-intensive process either in the short run or the long run?
Competition in Natural Gas Pipeline Wellhead Supply Purchases
Authors: Broadman Harry G.
Published: May 2011

Throughout most of the last three decades, interstate natural gas pipeline companies-operating mainly as private carriers, buying gas supplies in the field and reselling them downstream'-have competed primarily on the basis of nonprice terms. Under the regime of wellhead regulation stemming from Phillips,' in upstream (field) markets binding price ceilings meant that interpipeline competition in gas purchases was governed principally by the attractiveness of take-or-pay provisions pipelines offer in their contracts with gas producers.' In downstream (city-gate) markets the chronic excess demand induced by wellhead regulation meant that pipelines competed for gas sales to local distribution companies and direct wholesale consumers (large industrial end-users and electric utilities) largely on the basis of the maximum quantity of gas that could be delivered.