bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Country Program Evaluation: Costa Rica (2011-2014)
Authors: Szwedzki Roni , Fajgenbaum Jose , Ramirez-Goldin Ana , Valdés Conroy Héctor , Brisco Couchonal Rafael , Murcia Juan Felipe , Fernández Montero Diego , Vásquez Jordán Darinka , Soriano Alejandro
Published: March 2024

This document presents the results of the evaluation of the Bank's country program with Costa Rica for the period 2011-2014. This is the fourth time the Office of Evaluation and Oversight (OVE) has provided an independent review of the Bank's program with Costa Rica. The first Country Program Evaluation (CPE) in 2003 covered the period 1990-2001, during which an open trade model was consolidated, leading to substantial foreign direct investment. The second CPE covered the period 2002-2006, in which the country was heavily exposed to external shocks. The third and most recent evaluation, covering 2007-2011, highlighted the difficulty of forging linkages between the mostdynamic sectors and the rest of the economy, and drew attention to the State's dwindling capacity to finance investments as a result of its low tax burden and heavy expenditure rigidities. The evaluation was conducted in accordance with the OVE mandate (document RE-238 corr.) and the Protocol for Country Program Evaluations (document RE-348-2). Its main purposes are to facilitate accountability and identify lessons learned that can enhance the Bank's future program. The evaluation took into account the new country strategy paper models (document GN-2468-6) developed by Management, the most significant practical effects of which were: (i) the de facto separation of the formulation of the country strategy and the programming of operations; (ii) the new emphasis on sector notes; and (iii) the updating of the strategy results matrix and programming documents. The production of this document involved interviews with some 200 people, including the Bank's main counterpart (the Ministry of Finance); sector-level executing units and the staff responsible for them at the ministerial level; as well as civil society organizations, academics, representatives of international organizations in Costa Rica, and the Bank's Representative and Country Office and headquarters staff. OVE is particularly grateful to the participants in the 22 workshops held in the country, and also to the Regional Manager's Office, the Bank's staff in the Country Office, and the people and authorities of Costa Rica for their generous hospitality. To fulfill the goal of analyzing the Bank's work during this strategy cycle, OVE reviewed a portfolio of all loans and technical cooperation programs approved between 2011 and 2014, as well as those approved earlier but mostly executed during this period. The lessons learned from this CPE should to serve as a useful input not only when preparing the next country strategy with Costa Rica, but also for the Bank to further enhance its service to similar middle-income countries, where access to alternative sources of financing presents new opportunities and challenges for the Bank.
Energy Reform and Local Content in Mexico: Effects in the Mining Sector
Authors: Espinasa Ramón , Walter Martin , Musik Asali Guillermo Adbel
Published: March 2024

Mexico is one of the world's leading oil producers; it currently ranks tenth worldwide and first in the Latin American and Caribbean region. However, in the last 10 years, oil production has fallen by almost a million barrels a day. Declines in Crude oil exports have led to increases in imports, and negatively affected the balance of trade. To reverse this trend, the federal government promoted a reform in the energy sector which was approved in December 2013. This reform declared that oil and gas exploration and production were strategic activities, and promoted private investment in the hydrocarbon industry. In addition to the direct benefits generated by this investment in terms of increased production and lower prices, there is great potential for its impact on more sectors of the economy through vertical linkages. This study analyzes the future effect of the changes in the hydrocarbon sector on the mining sector, with emphasis on existing and potential linkages between the two sectors stemming from local content policies. This analysis will be useful for generating financial and public policy instruments that allow the mining sector to maximize benefits from the expected growth in the hydrocarbon sector over the next few years.
Approach Paper: Evaluation of IDB Group's Work through Financial Intermediaries
Authors: Cabrera Maria , Vargas Felipe , Murcia Juan Felipe , Bolza-Schunemann Eva , Torres Mauricio , Churanek Danya , Szwedzki Roni , Puerta Juan Manuel , Pires Jose Claudio Linhares , Soriano Alejandro , Michelitsch Roland
Published: March 2024

This document describes OVE's approach to evaluating the work of IDB Group (IDBG) through financial intermediaries (FIs). In OVE's 2015-2016 Work Program and Budget (RE-479-1), the IDB's Board of Executive Directors requested OVE to conduct an evaluation of "financial sector credit lines supported by the IDB Group, including both SG and NSG loans." This document details OVE's approach to this evaluation and seeks to focus the work on the key questions relevant to IDBG and its Board. It also affords OVE the opportunity to collect additional guidance from the Board; as well as to keep Management informed about the proposed activities to foster coordination during the evaluation.
Comparative Project Evaluation of Agriculture Health and Food Safety: Annex 3
Authors: Ordóñez Romina , Rose Jonathan , Valdés Conroy Héctor
Published: March 2024

This is the third of seven detailed reports published with the evaluation Review of the Bank's Support to Agriculture, 2002-2014: Evidence from Key Thematic Areas conducted by the Office of Evaluation and Oversight (OVE). The objective of this note is to analyze the support that the IDB provided to the agricultural health and food safety subsector through its loan portfolio over the last 12 years.
Approach Paper: Evaluation of Contingent Lending at the IDB
Authors: Haarsager Ulrike , Hernández María José , Jansson Maya , Schijman Agustina , Khadr Ali
Published: March 2024

In recent years, the IDB has created several contingent lending instruments designed to anticipate needs caused by external economic shocks or natural disasters. The Board of Executive Directors has requested OVE to study the recent use of contingent lending at the Bank, providing inputs to SPD's forthcoming review. This Approach Paper outlines the planned coverage of OVE's evaluation.
Evaluation of IDB Group's Work through Financial Intermediaries: Green Lending Background Report
Authors: Suarez David , Puerta Juan Manuel , Morales Carlos
Published: March 2024

This document has been prepared in conjunction with a comprehensive evaluation of the work of the Inter-American Development Bank Group through financial intermediaries in Latin America and the Caribbean. It reviewed the general portfolio of green lending operations and looked in detail at 3 specific projects to understand (i) the role of credit lines as an instrument for CC mitigation and adaptation and (ii) IDB¿s impact in the three cases.
Merit-based Selection of Public Managers: Better Public Sector Performance?: An Exploratory Study
Authors: Cortázar Velarde Juan Carlos , Fuenzalida Javier , Lafuente Mariano
Published: March 2024

This qualitative study explores the degree to which the merit-based selectionof public managers leads to better public sector performance. Based on the findings from eight case studies in Chile and Peru, the introduction of the merit-based selection of public managers would have engendered a series of improvements in the internal management and practices of organizations -more so than in institutional outcomes. Other intangible and perceived benefits include the manager¿s higher level of legitimacy in, as well as a stronger commitment to, the institution. The study also proposes a future agenda for research.
Guide to Workforce Skills Assessment Instruments
Authors: Prada María Fernanda , Rucci Graciana
Published: March 2024

This guide reviews the principal instruments and surveys developed for assessing workforce skills. Its main objective is to consolidate the existing information and provide an overview of the different types of instruments available. It is also intended to help readers understand and navigate the vast universe of surveys and instruments for assessing skills in adults. For each instrument, it presents a general description, comparisons with other instruments of the same type, and an analysis of its applicability to the region.
Country Program Evaluation: Peru 2012-2016
Authors: Haarsager Ulrike , Corrales Maria Elena , Ramirez-Goldin Ana , González Ángela , Valdés Conroy Héctor , Palomino Alejandro , Molina Adriana , Ramírez Nadia , Di Tata Juan Carlos , Mendieta Umaña Maria Paula , Azuara Herrera Oliver
Published: March 2024

This country program evaluation (CPE) for Peru covers the period 2012-2016, during which the Bank's work was guided by the country strategy with Peru (2012-2016) (document GN-2668). This CPE represents the fourth time the Office of Evaluation and Oversight (OVE) has conducted an independent evaluation of the Bank's country program with Peru. The previous evaluations covered the periods 1990-2000 (document RE-262), 2002-2006 (document RE-330), and 2007-2011 (document RE-403-2). The evaluation looks at the country strategy with Peru (2012-2016) and the operations active during that span of time, as well as the Bank's nonfinancial support to Peru during the strategy period. Information was gathered from Bank documents, Peruvian government data and documents, and independent analysis and research papers, as well as from interviews with Peruvian government officials, representatives of Peruvian academia, civil society and the private sector, and Bank staff.
Approach Paper: Country Program Evaluation: Nicaragua 2013 - 2017
Authors: Hernández María José , Russell Nathaniel , Sadeghi Patricia , Ramirez Abarca Nadia , Rodrigo Maria Fernanda , Soriano Alejandro
Published: March 2024

This Country Program Evaluation will evaluate the IDB’s program with Nicaragua during the period 2013-2017. The evaluation includes an analysis of operations approved in 2013-2017 as well as others approved previously but with significant undisbursed balances at the beginning of 2013.
Leading from the Center: Pernambuco's Management Model
Authors: Alessandro Martín , Lafuente Mariano , Shostak Ray
Published: March 2024

This Technical Note describes and analyzes the management model implemented in 2007 by the State of Pernambuco, Brazil. It discusses the model's main features, as well as how and why it was implemented, and suggests opportunities for improvement and institutionalization. It also presents lessons learned for other subnational governments seeking to improve their performance and achieve results for the citizens. The key innovation of the Pernambuco case is the integration of planning, budgeting, monitoring, and intervention through a management model endorsed by the Governor and steered by the Secretariat of Planning and Management (SEPLAG) as the key player within the Center of Government (CoG). The CoG has set clear priorities and developed approaches and capacities to make adjustments and corrections when obstacles are harming performance. It has also implemented routines and technical tools, which appear to be in the process of becoming institutionalized. At the same time, there is room for improvement, mainly in terms of strengthening the model's focus on outcomes and refreshing some of its key components.
Informe MERCOSUR No. 17 (2011-2012)
Authors:   Inter American Development Bank
Published: March 2024

Analiza el panorama macroeconómico y los flujos comerciales de los países del Mercado Común del Sur (MERCOSUR), además de los principales aspectos del proceso de integración del bloque, tanto en su agenda interna como externa. Ofrece información sobre reevaluación del Centro de Análisis y Difusión de la Economía Paraguaya (CADEP) acerca del comercio de Paraguay, los vínculos comerciales del MERCOSUR con China y el comercio automotor en el eje MERCOSUR-México.
Human Capital Policies: What they Can and Cannot Do for Productivity and Poverty Reduction in Latin America
Authors: Pagés Carmen , Duryea Suzanne
Published: March 2024

Raising labor productivity is recognized as a critical factor for increasing economic growth and reducing poverty levels in Latin America. Low levels of education continue to be singled out as the main obstacle to higher productivity in the region. We examine the scope for education to lift labor incomes above poverty levels in Latin America and find that in many countries education, by itself, has a positive, but limited, potential to increase wages above a minimum level. In general, the prospects are dim because progress in raising average schooling levels has been slow even under the best historical scenarios. We also examine whether the apparent failure of education can be explained by low wage returns to schooling, and poor underlying conditions. We find that investments in education continue to have important payoffs but poor underlying conditions explain the modest prospect for the role of education in the short run. This leads us to consider what additional policies should be pursued in order to ensure higher productivity for workers in the region.
The Making of Policy: Institutionalized or Not?
Authors: Scartascini Carlos , Tommasi Mariano
Published: March 2024

This paper develops a framework for analyzing different policymaking styles, their causes and their consequences in Latin America, finding that lower institutionalization and greater use of alternative political technologies (APTs) are more likely the lower the cost of using these technologies, the higher the potential damage they can cause, the lower the wealth of the economy, and the more asymmetric the distribution of de jure political power. Moreover, strategic complementarity exists in the use of alternative political technologies; for instance "bribes by the rich" and "protests by the poor" are likely to be countervailing forces, and will both occur in polities with weaker political institutions.
Fiscal Discipline and the Choice of Exchange Rate Regime
Authors: Velasco Andrés , Tomell Aaron
Published: March 2024

Conventional wisdom claims that fixed exchange rates provide more fiscal discipline than do flexible rates, but the recent experiences in Europe, the record of Sub-Saharan countries in the 1980s, and the history of stabilization attempts in Latin America cast empirical doubts on this wisdom. To explore this puzzle we present a standard intertemporal model with perfect capital mobility and price flexibility, in which fiscal policy is endogenously determined by a maximizing fiscal authority.
Aging and Economic Opportunities: Major World Regions around the Turn of the Century
Authors: Behrman Jere R. , Székely Miguel , Duryea Suzanne
Published: March 2024

This paper presents new evidence for major world regions and for the most populous countries in each region on associations between the average ages of populations and three groups of economic outcomes: (1) macroeconomic aggregates (domestic saving as a share of GDP, GDP per capita, capital per worker and tax revenue as a share of GDP); (2) governmental expenditures on education and health; and (3) social indicators (inequality, unemployment, homicide rates, and schooling progression rates). The results suggest that the variables considered follow clear age-related patterns, that the patterns differ by regions, and that the patterns differ with different policy regimes related to trade openness, domestic financial market deepening and macroeconomic volatility. The evidence is consistent with the possibility that some age structure shifts can provide favorable conditions for development. Apparently regions such as East Asia in recent decades have been able to benefit from this demographic opportunity. However, in others such as Latin America and the Caribbean -which is at the verge of experiencing the largest age structure shifts in the coming decades- creating an adequate economic environment to translate the opportunity into higher living standards for its population is a major challenge.
The Demographic Transition in Closed and Open Economies: A Tale of Two Regions
Authors: Attanasio Orazio P. , Violante Giovanni L.
Published: March 2024

This paper constructs a general equilibrium overlapping generation model to evaluate quantitatively how demographic transition (falling mortality and fertility rates) affects aggregate variables (wages, interest rate, output), and inter-generational welfare in closed and open economies. We perform this analysis for two economies calibrated to resemble the North (US and Europe) and Latin America. Our simulations suggest that the demographic transition could have generated income per capita growth up to 0.5% per year in excess of steady-state growth in the past 50 years in Latin America and 0.3% in the North.
Foreign Direct Investment: Good Cholesterol?
Authors: Hausmann Ricardo , Fernández-Arias Eduardo
Published: March 2024

This paper studies the proposition that capital inflows tend to take the form of FDI -i.e., the share of FDI in total liabilities tends to be higher- in countries that are safer, more promising and with better institutions and policies. It finds that this view is patently wrong since it stands the historical record on its head. It then uses alternative theories to make sense of the facts. It begins by studying the determinants of the size and composition of the flows of private capital across countries. It finds that while capital flows tend to go to countries that are safer and have better institutions and financial markets, the share of FDI in total flows is not an indication of good health. On the contrary, countries that are riskier, less financially developed and have weaker institutions tend to attract less capital but more of it in the form of FDI. Hence, interpreting the rising share of FDI as a sign of good health is unwarranted. This is even more so, given that FDI's recent rise has taken place while total private capital inflows have fallen.
Structural Volatility in Chile: A Policy Report
Authors: Caballero Ricardo J.
Published: March 2024

This paper identifies Chile's economic weaknesses and offers policy recommendations for increasing stability. Current problems include weak international financial links, a Central Bank mandate that is ill-designed to deal with terms of trade shocks, a propensity to waste scarce liquidity in the banking system; and limited development of financial markets. The paper's policy recommendations include improving external financial links, molding terms of trade contingencies into anti-cyclical policies, Improving liquidity aggregation through and within the banking sector during crises, and improving the liquidity and immediacy of domestic financial instruments.
The 1990s in Latin America: Another Decade of Persistent Inequality, but with Somewhat Lower Poverty
Authors: Székely Miguel
Published: March 2024

This paper processes 76 household surveys from 17 Latin American countries to document changes in poverty and inequality during the 1990s. We show that there is no country in Latin America where inequality declined during the 1990s. Poverty declined in 10 or 11 of the 17 countries for which household surveys are available to us, depending on the poverty measured used. Persistently high inequality inhibited further poverty reduction.
Social Sector Reform in Latin America and the Role of Unions
Authors: Maceira Daniel , Murillo Maria Victoria
Published: March 2024

This paper analyzes the reaction of teachers' and doctors' unions to a series of social sector reforms in the region, including administrative decentralization, provider payment mechanisms, and the introduction of performance evaluation and private provision. It combines the literature of economics and political science to understand the conditions that shape different patterns of union behavior and their effect on policy implementation. The paper suggests that the main conditions influencing union behavior in the health sector are related to the structure of the market (size and level of competition) due to the predominance of the private-public mix in its employment. In education, where the public sector is the main employer, political alignments and the organizational features of teachers' associations also play an important role in explaining the behavior of providers' organizations. Considering the exogenous character of most of these variables, the paper concludes by making some policy suggestions to align the objectives of unions and policymakers through regulatory reforms.
Happiness and Beliefs in Criminal Environments
Authors: MacCulloch Robert , Di Tella Rafael , Ñopo Hugo R.
Published: March 2024

This paper uses newly available data to describe the distribution of crime victimization and other criminal activities (including drug trafficking and corruption) around the world. The paper then documents a negative (positive) correlation between measures of criminal activity and happiness and measures of positive (negative) emotions. The paper also studies the correlation between ideological beliefs and criminal activity, finding that crime victims are more likely to believe that hard work does not pay and that the government should increase the amount of redistribution to the poor.
Productive Development Policies in Jamaica
Authors: Panadeiros Monica , Benfield Warren
Published: March 2024

Jamaica seems to be a puzzling case for economic growth: despite the structural reforms implemented in the last three decades and adequate investment levels, real GDP per capita is roughly the same as in 1970. The disappointing performance of this economy suggests that productive development policies (PDPs), including first-generation reforms, have not been enough to create a better environment for productivity growth. This paper examines the PDPs in Jamaica and concludes that behind the paradox of high investment and low growth of this economy are the "public debt trap" and a highly distortive tax incentive structure to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and promote exports. Although industrial policy is moving towards a more modern conceptual design, the old schemes seem politically difficult to dismantle.
Notes on Optimal Growth, Climate Change Calamities, Adaptation and Mitigation
Authors: Chisari Omar O.
Published: March 2024

A strategy of inclusion of adaptation and mitigation expenses in a model of optimal growth under threat of climate change calamities is discussed in these exploratory notes. Calamity is the result of a shock that reduces the utility level (even to extinction forever) and/or triggers a fundamental change of the economic structure. Mitigation expenses reduce the long-run probability of a calamity or the speed of convergence to it; adaptation expenses help to improve the standard of living after the calamity. The willingness to contribute to those expenses and the effects on the long-run capital stock of the economy depend on perceptions on how they will modify the law of evolution of probabilities of the shock and the standard of living after the shock. The choice between a clean technology and one that increases GHG emissions is also discussed.
Labor Market Regulations and Income Inequality: Evidence for a Panel of Countries
Authors: Chong Alberto E. , Calderón César , Valdés Rodrigo
Published: March 2024

This paper presents evidence on the impact of labor regulations on income inequality using two recently published databases on labor institutions and outcomes (Rama and Artecona, 2002; Botero, Djankov, La Porta, López-de-Silanes and Shleifer, 2003) and different cross-section and panel data analysis techniques for a sample of 121 countries over the 1970-2000 period. When we consider the techniques most likely to be robust, we find that: (i) de jure regulations do not improve income distribution; (ii) relative compliance with existing regulations improves income distribution; (iii) de facto regulations are weakly associated with improving income inequality. This result partly reflects the fact that regulations are endogenous and, more interestingly, different regulations have quite distinct effects. In particular, we find that any redistributive effect of labor regulations may come from trade union membership, public employment and mandated benefits (proxied by maternity leave).
Should the Government Be in the Banking Business?: The Role of State-Owned and Development Banks
Authors: Micco Alejandro , Levy Yeyati Eduardo , Panizza Ugo
Published: March 2024

This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the role of state-owned banks and also presents some new results and a robustness analysis. The paper shows that state-owned banks located in developing countries have fiscal costs because they are characterized by lower returns than comparable privately owned banks (on the other hand, there is no evidence that state-owned banks located in industrial countries are less profitable than their private counterparts). We then point out that this evidence cannot be used as an argument against the existence of state-owned banks, as this low profitability might stem from state-owned banks activity on projects characterized by low private sector investment and high social return. While we find no evidence that the presence of state-owned banks promotes economic growth or financial development, we also find that the evidence that state-owned banks lead to lower growth and financial development is not as strong as previously thought.
Flexible Exchange Rate with Inflation Targeting in Chile: Experience and Issues
Authors: De Gregorio José , Valdés Rodrigo , Tokman Andrea
Published: March 2024

The first five years of the flexible exchange rate and inflation targeting regime in Chile have shown positive results. Inflation is under control, the exchange rate has moved with the external conditions, monetary policy has been countercyclical and the cycle has apparently smoothened. Even though exchange rate volatility has increased, as expected with a flexible regime, this has also happened in other countries with similar characteristics. This increased volatility has lower extreme real exchange rate valuations than in the past, as is also seen in other countries with alternative exchange rate regimes. Important progress in derivatives market deepening, as well in a lower pass-through from the exchange rate to inflation, have contributed to increasing the credibility and feasibility of the current policy framework, while minimizing potential costs derived from that framework.
Debt Instruments and Policies in the New Millennium: New Markets and New Opportunities
Authors: Panizza Ugo , Eichengreen Barry , Borensztein Eduardo
Published: March 2024

Spreads on sovereign bonds are at an all-time low, at least since the current era of emerging economy bond markets began in the 1990s. This paper examines the current state of the international and domestic bond markets and asks whether the current favorable trends will constitute a durable change or a temporary fad and discusses what the IDB and other international financial institutions can do to help consolidate the positive trends and prevent new sudden stop episodes in Latin America.
Optimal Sovereign Debt: An Analytical Approach
Authors: Rochet Jean-Charles
Published: March 2024

This paper develops a model of sovereign debt where governments are myopic. Instead of focusing on the incentives to repay, as in most of the theoretical literature on the topic (which assumes implicitly that governments have long-term objectives), I therefore consider that governments always repay when they can, but also borrow as much as possible. without paying attention to the burden of future repayments. The pattern of debt is then only determined by the willingness of international investors to lend to the country. I characterize the Rational Expectations Equilibria of the credit market. These equilibria behave like rational bubbles: international investors lend a lot because they anticipate that other investors will lend again in the future. Capital flows are procyclical: the government borrows a fixed proportion of its income until a sudden stop occurs, generating default and an economic crisis. I suggest possible remedies to the high volatility of public expenditures that is generated by such borrowing patterns.
Aid Effectiveness: Politics Matters
Authors: Powell Andrew , Bobba Matteo
Published: March 2024

The literature on aid effectiveness has focused more on recipient policies than the determinants of aid allocation yet a consistent result is that political allies obtain more aid from donors than non-allies. This paper shows that aid allocated to political allies is ineffective for growth, whereas aid extended to countries that are not allies is highly effective. The result appears to be robust across different specifications and estimation techniques. In particular, new methods are employed to control for endogeneity. The paper suggests that aid allocation should be scrutinized carefully to make aid as effective as possible.
Fear and Market Failure: Global Imbalances and ¿Self-Insurance¿
Authors: Miller Marcus , Zhang Lei
Published: March 2024

This paper proposes an integrated framework to analyze jointly two key issues: the emergence of global imbalances and the precautionary motive for accumulating reserves. Standard models of general equilibrium would predict modest current account surpluses in the emerging markets if they face higher risk than the US itself. But, with pronounced Loss Aversion in emerging markets, their precautionary savings can generate substantial global imbalances, especially if there is an inefficient supply of global insurance. In principle, lower real interest rates will ensure that aggregate demand equals supply at a global level (though the required real interest may be negative). While a precautionary savings glut appears to be a temporary phenomenon, a process of correction triggered by a Sudden Stop in capital flows to the United States might lead to a hard landing.
Who Needs Strong Leaders?
Authors: Chong Alberto E. , Gradstein Mark
Published: March 2024

This papers model suggests that a strong leader, sometimes with little legislative oversight, may nevertheless benefit from public support. The argument is that this support is induced as an attempt by the poor to counter the subversion of public protection of property rights by the rich, and to achieve this goal they are often willing to pay the price of the leaders diversion of tax revenues for private use. The paper then examines survey data on individual attitudes toward strong leadership and finds their pattern to be consistent with the models predictions; specifically, support for strong leadership is inversely related to individual income and to countrywide income inequality.
To What Extent do Latin Americans Trust and Cooperate?: Field Experiments on Social Exclusion In Six Latin American Countries
Authors: Cárdenas Juan Camilo , Chong Alberto E. , Ñopo Hugo R.
Published: March 2024

This paper explores the extent to which individuals trust, reciprocate, cooperate and pool risk by using a battery of field experiments containing the trust game, the voluntary contributions mechanism and the risk pooling game; applied in six capital cities in Latin America. The results suggest that: (i) on average, the propensity to trust and cooperate among Latin Americans is remarkably similar to that found in other regions of the world; (ii) expectations about the behavior of other players are the main driver of trust, reciprocity and cooperation; and (iii) behaviors involving socialization, trust and cooperation are closely interconnected.
Soap Operas and Fertility: Evidence from Brazil
Authors: Chong Alberto E. , La Ferrara Eliana , Duryea Suzanne
Published: March 2024

This paper focuses on fertility choices in Brazil, a country where soap operas (novelas) portray families that are much smaller than in reality, to study the effects of television on individual behavior. Using Census data for the period 1970-1991, the paper finds that women living in areas covered by the Globo signal have significantly lower fertility. The effect is strongest for women of lower socioeconomic status and for women in the central and late phases of their fertility cycle. Finally, the paper provides evidence that novelas, rather than television in general, affected individual choices.
Public Investment in Developing Countries: A Blessing or a Curse?
Authors: Cavallo Eduardo A. , Daude Christian
Published: March 2024

This paper analyzes the impact of public investment on private investment in 116 developing countries between 1980 and 2006. It finds a strong crowding-out effect that seems to be the norm rather than the exception, both across regions and over time. This effect is dampened (or even reversed) in countries with better institutions that are more open to international trade and financial flows. These results confirm that while public infrastructure may complement private capital, distortions associated with the public investment process might crowd out private investment in the course of building public capital stocks. These distortions are more prevalent in countries with weak institutions or closed economies.
How Do Crises Affect Schooling Decisions?: Evidence from Changing Labor Market Opportunities and a Policy Experiment
Authors: López Bóo Florencia
Published: March 2024

This paper examines the effect of labor market opportunities on schooling and employment decisions in 12 urban areas in Argentina over 12 years, emphasizing the recession/crisis years of 1998-2002. In typical years deteriorating job rates boost the probability of attending school and decrease the probability of combining work and school, particularly for boys; the probability of being in school for secondary school children was about 6% higher in 2002 than in 1998. These estimates reflect a new 1996 Federal Education Law (FEL) that extended mandatory education to 10 years.
Household Saving in Developing Countries - Inequality, Demographics and All That: How Different are Latin America and South East Asia?
Authors: Attanasio Orazio P. , Székely Miguel
Published: March 2024

East Asia and Latin America have diverged in several dimensions in the past three decades. This paper compares household saving behavior in two countries in each region (Mexico, Peru, Thailand and Taiwan). We make four contributions. First, we provide the first comparisons of savings in these two regions at the micro level using synthetic cohort techniques. Second, rather than focusing only on total household saving, as is common in the literature, we disaggregate the population into education groups to determine whether there are differences in saving behavior along the distribution of income. Third, we construct forecasts of future aggregate household saving rates, based on demographic projections. Fourth, we provide evidence that allows for testing the relevance of the life cycle model for explaining the differences in saving behavior.
Why Should Emerging Economies Give Up National Currencies?: A Case for "Institutions Substitution"
Authors: Mendoza Enrique G.
Published: March 2024

Financial contagion and Sudden Stops of capital inflows experienced in emerging-markets crises may originate in an explosive mix of lack of policy credibility and world capital market imperfections that afflict emerging economies with national currencies. Hence, this paper argues that abandoning national currencies to adopt a hard currency can significantly reduce the emerging countries' vulnerability to these crises. The credibility of their financial policies would be greatly enhanced by the implicit subordination to the policymaking institutions of the hard currency issuer. Their access to international capital markets would improve as the same expertise and information that global investors already gather to evaluate the monetary policy of the hard currency issuer would apply to emerging economies. Yet, adopting a hard currency does not eliminate business cycles, rule out all forms of financial crises, or solve severe fiscal problems that plague emerging economies, and it entails giving up seigniorage and potential benefits of conducting independent monetary policy. However, these disadvantages seem dwarfed by the urgent need to enable emerging countries to access global capital markets without exposing them to the risk of recurrent Sudden Stops.
Informality and Productivity in the Labor Market: Peru 1986 - 2001
Authors: Chong Alberto E. , Saavedra-Chanduví Jaime , Galdo José
Published: March 2024

Peru has one of the highest informality rates in Latin America, with almost 60 percent of the urban labor force working at the margins of labor market legislation or in microenterprises that lack basic labor market standards (Marcouiller, Ruiz de Castilla, and Woodruff, 1997). This paper identifies two factors that can explain the variation in informality rates in the 1990s. First, Peru experienced a steady increase in employment allocation in traditionally informal sectorsin particular, retail trade and transport. Second, there was a sharp increase in nonwage labor costs, despite a reduction in the average productivity of the economy. In addition, the paper illustrates the negative correlation between productivity and informality by evaluating the impacts of the PROJOVEN youth training program.
The Institutional Determinants of Political Transactions
Authors: Scartascini Carlos
Published: March 2024

Public policies are the outcome of the interaction among a variety of key political actors, each with its own preferences and incentives, who meet in different arenas and interact within the constraints of the institutions that frame their engagement. Therefore, to recognize the reasons behind the success or failure of any public policy it is necessary to understand the countrys political institutions and the policymaking process they in turn help shape. This document looks at a number of those key actors, institutions, and arenas, with the aim of examining the roles, incentives, and capabilities of each of the actors in the policymaking process, by drawing from an extensive literature in political science and political economy. Each of the actors is looked at individually but connected to the other actors by linking the impact of political institutions on their incentives to the features of the policymaking game. Hopefully, this document will provide researchers with the tools necessary to embark in the fascinating analysis of policymaking processes not only for Latin American countries but also for other parts of the world.
Trade Policy Reform as Institutional Reform
Authors: Rodrik Dani
Published: March 2024

Economists are trained to think about trade policy reform in terms of changes in the levels of tariffs and quantitative restrictions and the shifts in relative prices brought about by these alterations.
Continuous Improvement in Community District #2, New York City
Authors: Elmore Richard F. , Burney Deanna
Published: March 2024

Community School District #2, in New York City, has been engaged in a long-term process of system-wide instructional improvement, now in its eleventh year. This process involves, among other things, heavy investments in professional development for teachers and principals that are focused on introducing and supporting specific instructional practices in literacy and mathematics, coupled with system-level and school-level accountability processes designed to assure high quality instruction in all schools and classrooms.
Sequencing Regional Trade Integration and Cooperation Agreements: Describing a Dataset for a New Research Agenda
Authors: Suominen Kati , Estevadeordal Antoni
Published: March 2024

The purpose of this article is to describe a new dataset on trade integration agreements here, preferential trading arrangements (PTAs) and other international agreements that can be employed to start mending the gaps in the literature on cooperation, and to develop a research agenda on the "best practices" of sequencing international agreements so as to obtain higher pay-offs from global cooperation.
Microfinance in Latin America and the Caribbean: Connecting Supply and Demand
Authors: Navajas Sergio , Tejerina Luis
Published: March 2024

This working paper is being published with the sole objective of contributing to the debate of a topic of importance to the region, and to elicit comments and suggestions from interested parties.
The New Millennium Learners: Challenging our Views on ICT and Learning
Authors: Pedró Francesc
Published: March 2024

This paper is intended to synthesise available evidences on the emergence of a generational approach to learning and knowledge management strongly influenced by having always been living surrounded by and interacting continuously with information and communication technologies (ICT).
Credit Constraints and the Demand for Higher Education in Latin America
Authors: Alfonso Mariana
Published: March 2024

This paper presents information about a theoretical model that provides different interpretations for the correlation between family wealth and tertiary education enrollment; the empirical model; a description of data sources and the main variables used in the analysis.
Inequity in School Achievement in Latin America: Multilevel Analysis of SERCE Results According to the Socioeconomic Status of Students
Authors: Moreno Martín , Duarte Jesús , Bos María Soledad
Published: March 2024

This document analyzes differences in the academic achievement of Latin American students based on the socioeconomic status of their families. Using the database from the Second Regional Comparative and Explanatory Study (SERCE) conducted in 2006, a significant positive relationship was confirmed between the socioeconomic status of students and SERCE results, both region-wide and for each participating country. If this relationship is broken down into two different levels (within the schools and between the schools), variations in socioeconomic status explain a significant part of the variability in test scores between the schools and, to a lesser degree, the variability within the schools. The result is a high level of socioeconomic segregation between the schools, which, in turn, accentuates the relationship between student socioeconomic status and test results. The poorest students are punished first by their socioeconomic status and then again by studying in schools attended chiefly by children of poor families, thus deepening the inequity in school achievement. Findings suggest several courses of action for public policy, tailored to each country¿s profiles of educational equity.
Reciprocity in the FTAA: The Roles of Market Access, Institutions and Negotiating Capacity
Authors: Nogués Julio J.
Published: March 2024

The benefits of the FTAA to Latin American countries will materialize through two channels: improved access to the region's markets, and enhanced growth prospects through the strengthening of basic economic institutions. Furthermore, the importance of these negotiations is heightened by the fact that they are taking place against the failure of the Uruguay Round to liberalize agricultural trade, and the lack of progress in the ongoing negotiations of the Doha round. Under these conditions for Latin American countries, who are net exporters of different bundles of agricultural products, the FTAA could be the best opportunity for accelerating growth in the region. The analysis includes a discussion of these issues stressing the fact that in order for the reciprocal exchange of concessions agreed in the FTAA to result in an important liberalization of intra-regional trade, Latin American countries will have to negotiate with greater firmness than in the past.
Emigration, Remittances and Labor Force Participation in Mexico
Authors: Hanson Gordon H.
Published: March 2024

This paper, examines emigration, remittances, and labor-force participation in Mexico during the 1990s. It uses two samples of households for the analysis: (a) rural households in Mexico in 2000, which vary according to whether they have sent migrants to the United States or received remittances from the United States, and (b) individuals in Mexico in 1990 and 2000 born in states with either high-exposure or low-exposure to U.S. emigration.
MERCOSUR: Dilemas and Alternatives for the Trade Agenda
Authors: Rios Sandra Polónia
Published: March 2024

This paper formed part of a Conference "Mercosur: In Search of a New Agenda" held in the Getulio Vargas Foundation in Rio de Janeiro in June 2003. The purpose of the Conference was to was to examine future directions for Mercosur in light of emerging political dynamics pointing to renewed interest in deepening the initiative after a turbulent 1999-2002. The papers and the conference were supported by the Integration and Regional Programs Department of the Inter-American Development Bank through its Special Initiative on Trade and Integration. The Department is grateful for the collaboration of the Foundation and in particular to Professor Renato Flores. The recent deterioration of MERCOSUR internal and external credibility stems from decisions taken by its member countries to face domestic and international conflicting issues arising in the last years. Excess of flexibility to lessen differences, a lack of enthusiasm about the bloc¿s deepening agenda, and of a common vision on the role of the integration project in development strategies for the four member countries, have caused distortion to the original project. The root of these divergences can be traced in macroeconomic policies of larger member countries and in the lack of instruments to cope with different economy sizes and to integrate the asymmetric productive structures of the four countries. The purpose of this work is to evaluate issues within the trade agenda of MERCOSUR, assessing its progress and difficulties, identifying the roots of the problems in the integration process and studying main current dilemmas. On the basis of the diagnoses some proposals are presented to be included in the bloc¿s integration agenda for the next years.
Agricultural Exporters in a Protectionist World: Review and Policy Implications of Barriers Against Mercosur
Authors: Nogués Julio J.
Published: March 2024

Worldwide, the Mercosur countries are probably the ones that face the most hostile trading system. Their strong comparative advantage in temperate agricultural and agro-industrial products make them particularly vulnerable to the irrationally high and variable agricultural protectionism cum subsidies that continues to distort this trade. In retrospect the paper argues that signing the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture was a kiss of death for the development prospects of these countries. Likewise, the continued expansion of regional policies and particularly that practiced by the EU, continues to reduce export earnings of Mercosur. The paper presents a selected survey of the literature as well as new estimates on these and other effects including the financial consequences that agricultural protectionism has on Mercosur; their ability to sustain and service their external debts. Based on the findings, the paper concludes with some policy suggestions which at best represent defensive opportunities. Nothing would boost more the development prospects of these countries than a comprehensive and ambitious multilateral agreement to reduce agricultural protectionism. Nevertheless given the highly protectionist stance of the US and EU, the prospects that this will materialize anytime soon are dim.