bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Strengthened Linkage between November/December North Atlantic Oscillation and Subsequent January European Precipitation after the Late 1980s
Authors: Liu Yang , He Shengping
Published: August 2020

This work investigates the nonsynchronous relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and winter European precipitation. The results indicate that the linkage between early-winter (November and December) NAO and the following January precipitation and atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic and European sectors became statistically significant after the late 1980s. Before the late 1980s, January precipitation and atmospheric circulation are weakly correlated with early-winter NAO. After the late 1980s, by contrast, the positive phase of the early-winter NAO is generally followed by an anomalous meridional dipole pattern with barotropic structure over the North Atlantic, which provides conditions for more (less) precipitation south of Iceland (east of the Azores). Further analysis elucidates that this regime shift may be partly attributed to the change of early-winter NAO, which is concurrent with significant change in the intensity of the synoptic and low-frequency eddy interaction over the Atlantic–European sectors. Anomalous positive sea level pressure and geopotential height, along with zonal wind anomalies associated with a positive early-winter NAO over the North Atlantic, are more significant and extend more northeastward after the late 1980s, which may be induced by an intensified transient eddy feedback after the late 1980s, as well as the enhanced storm-track activity over the North Atlantic. Thus, early-winter NAO can induce significant ocean temperature anomalies in the North Atlantic after the late 1980s, which extend downward into the middle parts of the thermocline and persist until the following January to trigger NAO-like atmospheric circulation patterns. Analyses from the Community Earth System Model large ensemble simulations indicate the effects of internal climate variability on such a strengthened linkage.
Contrasting Southern Hemisphere Monsoon Response: MidHolocene Orbital Forcing versus Future Greenhouse Gas–Induced Global Warming
Authors: D’Agostino Roberta , Brown Josephine R. , Moise Aurel , Nguyen Hanh , Silva Dias Pedro L. , Jungclaus Johann
Published: August 2020

Past changes of Southern Hemisphere (SH) monsoons are less investigated than their northern counterpart because of relatively scarce paleodata. In addition, projections of SH monsoons are less robust than in the Northern Hemisphere. Here, we use an energetic framework to shed lights on the mechanisms determining SH monsoonal response to external forcing: precession change at the mid-Holocene versus future greenhouse gas increase (RCP8.5). Mechanisms explaining the monsoon response are investigated by decomposing the moisture budget in thermodynamic and dynamic components. SH monsoons weaken and contract in the multimodel mean of midHolocene simulations as a result of decreased net energy input and weakening of the dynamic component. In contrast, SH monsoons strengthen and expand in the RCP8.5 multimodel mean, as a result of increased net energy input and strengthening of the thermodynamic component. However, important regional differences on monsoonal precipitation emerge from the local response of Hadley and Walker circulations. In the midHolocene, the combined effect of Walker–Hadley changes explains the land–ocean precipitation contrast. Conversely, the increased local gross moist stability explains the increased local precipitation and net energy input under circulation weakening in RCP8.5.
Changes in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index in the Orinoco and Amazon River Basins: Links to Tropical Atlantic Surface Temperatures
Authors: Arias Paola A. , Martínez J. Alejandro , Mejía Juan David , Pazos María José , Espinoza Jhan Carlo , Wongchuig-Correa Sly
Published: August 2020

We analyze the observed relationship between sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Atlantic Ocean and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the Orinoco and Amazon basins. Monthly correlations between anomalies of NDVI and SSTs are computed for different regions of the Atlantic Ocean. We also use a mixture of observations and reanalysis products to analyze lagged correlations. Our results show that during August–September (i.e., the dry-to-wet transition season), changes in NDVI in the central Amazon and the so-called Arc of Deforestation are associated with precedent changes in the SSTs of the tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and the Caribbean (CABN) during March–June. Anomalous warming of the CABN and TNA generates changes in surface winds and atmospheric moisture transport in the region, decreasing precipitation, with consequent decreases of soil moisture, moisture recycling, and NDVI. An increase in TNA and CABN SSTs during March–June is also associated with an increase of NDVI over the northern Orinoco during June (i.e., the wet season). Unlike in the southern Amazon, precipitation and soil moisture in the Orinoco basin do not exhibit significant changes associated with SSTs. By contrast, atmospheric moisture recycling and transport increase with warmer SSTs in the TNA. Therefore, for the Orinoco, the link between SSTs and NDVI appears to be related not to changes in precipitation but to changes in moisture recycling. However, the causality between these changes needs to be further explored. These findings highlight the contrasting responses of the Amazon and Orinoco basins to Atlantic temperatures and the dominant role of atmospheric moisture transport linking these responses.
Breakdown of the Summertime Meridional Teleconnection Pattern over the Western North Pacific and East Asia since the Early 2000s
Authors: Li Xinyu , Lu Riyu
Published: August 2020

The meridional teleconnection over the western North Pacific and East Asia (WNP–EA) plays a predominant role in affecting the interannual variability of East Asian climate in summer. This study identified a breakdown of the meridional teleconnection since the early 2000s. Before the early 2000s, there are close tropical–extratropical relationships in light of both circulation and rainfall anomalies. For instance, the westward extension of the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH) is closely associated with the southward shift of the East Asian westerly jet (EAJ), and more rainfall in the tropical WNP closely corresponds to less rainfall in the subtropical WNP–EA. However, after the early 2000s, the tropical–extratropical relationships are absent. Particularly, the tropical WNP precipitation anomalies can induce WNPSH anomalies, but the WNPSH anomalies cannot induce subtropical precipitation in the latter period, due to the absence of EAJ-related extratropical circulation anomalies. Further results indicate that in the latter period, the westward extension of the WNPSH is associated with the decay of central Pacific-like El Niño, and simultaneous summer sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central eastern Pacific favor the northward shift of the EAJ, resulting in the disruption of the WNPSH–EAJ relationship. This evolution of tropical SSTs is sharply different from the decay of canonical El Niño and simultaneous summer tropical Indian Ocean warming, which favor the WNPSH–EAJ correspondence in the former period.
Are the Transient and Equilibrium Climate Change Patterns Similar in Response to Increased CO2?
Authors: Huang Danqing , Dai Aiguo , Zhu Jian
Published: August 2020

After a CO2 increase, whether the early transient and final equilibrium climate change patterns are similar has major implications. Here, we analyze long-term simulations from multiple climate models under increased CO2, together with the extended simulations from CMIP5, to compare the transient and equilibrium climate change patterns under different forcing scenarios. Results show that the normalized warming patterns (per 1 K of global warming) are broadly similar among different forcing scenarios (including abrupt 2 × CO2, 4 × CO2, and 1% CO2 increase per year) and during different time periods, except for the first 50 years or so when warming is weaker over the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean but stronger over most continents. During the first 200 years, this consistency is stronger over land than over ocean, but is lower in midlatitudes than other regions. Normalized precipitation change patterns are also similar, albeit to a lesser degree, among different forcing scenarios and across different time periods, although noticeable differences exist during the first few hundred years with smaller increases over the tropical Pacific. Precipitation over many subtropical oceans and land areas decreases consistently under different forcing scenarios and over all time periods. In particular, the transient and near-equilibrium change patterns for both surface air temperature and precipitation are similar over most of the globe, except for the North Atlantic warming hole, which is mainly a transient feature. The Arctic amplification and land–ocean warming contrast are largest during the first 100–200 years after CO2 quadrupling but they still exist in the equilibrium response.
Simulation of Northeast U.S. Extreme Precipitation and Its Associated Circulation by CMIP5 Models
Authors: Agel Laurie , Barlow Mathew , Polonia Joseph , Coe David
Published: August 2020

Historical simulations from 14 models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) are evaluated for their ability to reproduce observed precipitation in the northeastern United States and its associated circulation, with particular emphasis on extreme (top 1%) precipitation. The models are compared to observations in terms of the spatial variations of extreme precipitation, seasonal cycles of precipitation and extreme precipitation frequency and intensity, and extreme precipitation circulation regimes. The circulation regimes are identified using k-means clustering of 500-hPa geopotential heights on extreme precipitation days, in both observations and in the models. While all models capture an observed northwest-to-southeast gradient of precipitation intensity (reflected in the top 1% threshold), there are substantial differences from observations in the magnitude of the gradient. These differences tend to be more substantial for lower-resolution models. However, regardless of resolution, and despite a bias toward too-frequent precipitation, many of the models capture the seasonality of observed daily precipitation intensity, and the approximate magnitude and seasonality of observed extreme precipitation intensity. Many of the simulated extreme precipitation circulation patterns are visually similar to the set of observed patterns. However, the location and magnitude of specific troughs and ridges within the patterns, as well as the seasonality of the patterns, may differ substantially from the observed corresponding patterns. A series of metrics is developed based on the observed regional characteristics to facilitate comparison between models.
Pattern Recognition Methods to Separate Forced Responses from Internal Variability in Climate Model Ensembles and Observations
Authors: Wills Robert C. J. , Battisti David S. , Armour Kyle C. , Schneider Tapio , Deser Clara
Published: August 2020

Ensembles of climate model simulations are commonly used to separate externally forced climate change from internal variability. However, much of the information gained from running large ensembles is lost in traditional methods of data reduction such as linear trend analysis or large-scale spatial averaging. This paper demonstrates how a pattern recognition method (signal-to-noise-maximizing pattern filtering) extracts patterns of externally forced climate change from large ensembles and identifies the forced climate response with up to 10 times fewer ensemble members than simple ensemble averaging. It is particularly effective at filtering out spatially coherent modes of internal variability (e.g., El Niño, North Atlantic Oscillation), which would otherwise alias into estimates of regional responses to forcing. This method is used to identify forced climate responses within the 40-member Community Earth System Model (CESM) large ensemble, including an El Niño–like response to volcanic eruptions and forced trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation. The ensemble-based estimate of the forced response is used to test statistical methods for isolating the forced response from a single realization (i.e., individual ensemble members). Low-frequency pattern filtering is found to skillfully identify the forced response within individual ensemble members and is applied to the HadCRUT4 reconstruction of observed temperatures, whereby it identifies slow components of observed temperature changes that are consistent with the expected effects of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing.
From CMIP3 to CMIP6: Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Blocking Simulation in Present and Future Climate
Authors: Davini Paolo , D’Andrea Fabio
Published: August 2020

A comprehensive analysis of the representation of winter and summer Northern Hemisphere atmospheric blocking in global climate simulations in both present and future climate is presented. Three generations of climate models are considered: CMIP3 (2007), CMIP5 (2012), and CMIP6 (2019). All models show common and extended underestimation of blocking frequencies, but a reduction of the negative biases in successive model generations is observed. However, in some specific regions and seasons such as the winter European sector, even CMIP6 models are not yet able to achieve the observed blocking frequency. For future decades the vast majority of models simulate a decrease of blocking frequency in both winter and summer, with the exception of summer blocking over the Urals and winter blocking over western North America. Winter predicted decreases may be even larger than currently estimated considering that models with larger blocking frequencies, and hence generally smaller errors, show larger reduction. Nonetheless, trends computed over the historical period are weak and often contrast with observations: this is particularly worrisome for summer Greenland blocking where models and observations significantly disagree. Finally, the intensity of global warming is related to blocking changes: wintertime European and North Pacific blocking are expected to decrease following larger global mean temperatures, while Ural summer blocking is expected to increase.
Impacts of Stratospheric Ozone Extremes on Arctic High Cloud
Authors: Maleska Sarah , Smith Karen L. , Virgin John
Published: August 2020

Stratospheric ozone depletion in the Antarctic is well known to cause changes in Southern Hemisphere tropospheric climate; however, because of its smaller magnitude in the Arctic, the effects of stratospheric ozone depletion on Northern Hemisphere tropospheric climate are not as obvious or well understood. Recent research using both global climate models and observational data has determined that the impact of ozone depletion on ozone extremes can affect interannual variability in tropospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in spring. To further this work, we use a coupled chemistry–climate model to examine the difference in high cloud between years with anomalously low and high Arctic stratospheric ozone concentrations. We find that low ozone extremes during the late twentieth century, when ozone-depleting substances (ODS) emissions are higher, are related to a decrease in upper tropospheric stability and an increase in high cloud fraction, which may contribute to enhanced Arctic surface warming in spring through a positive longwave cloud radiative effect. A better understanding of how Arctic climate is affected by ODS emissions, ozone depletion, and ozone extremes will lead to improved predictions of Arctic climate and its associated feedbacks with atmospheric fields as ozone levels recover.
Effects of Buoyancy and Wind Forcing on Southern Ocean Climate Change
Authors: Shi Jia-Rui , Talley Lynne D. , Xie Shang-Ping , Liu Wei , Gille Sarah T.
Published: August 2020

Observations show that since the 1950s, the Southern Ocean has stored a large amount of anthropogenic heat and has freshened at the surface. These patterns can be attributed to two components of surface forcing: poleward-intensified westerly winds and increased buoyancy flux from freshwater and heat. Here we separate the effects of these two forcing components by using a novel partial-coupling technique. We show that buoyancy forcing dominates the overall response in the temperature and salinity structure of the Southern Ocean. Wind stress change results in changes in subsurface temperature and salinity that are closely related to intensified residual meridional overturning circulation. As an important result, we show that buoyancy and wind forcing result in opposing changes in salinity: the wind-induced surface salinity increase due to upwelling of saltier subsurface water offsets surface freshening due to amplification of the global hydrological cycle. Buoyancy and wind forcing further lead to different vertical structures of Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport change; buoyancy forcing causes an ACC transport increase (3.1 ± 1.6 Sv; 1 Sv ≡ 106m3s−1) by increasing the meridional density gradient across the ACC in the upper 2000 m, while the wind-induced response is more barotropic, with the whole column transport increased by 8.7 ± 2.3 Sv. While previous research focused on the wind effect on ACC intensity, we show that surface horizontal current acceleration within the ACC is dominated by buoyancy forcing. These results shed light on how the Southern Ocean might change under global warming, contributing to more reliable future projections.
Interactions between Increasing CO2 and Antarctic Melt Rates
Authors: Mackie Shona , Smith Inga J. , Stevens David P. , Ridley Jeff K. , Langhorne Patricia J.
Published: August 2020

Meltwater from the Antarctic ice sheet is expected to increase the sea ice extent. However, such an expansion may be moderated by sea ice decline associated with global warming. Here we investigate the relative balance of these two processes through experiments using HadGEM3-GC3.1 and compare these to two standard idealized CMIP6 experiments. Our results show that the decline in sea ice projected under scenarios of increasing CO2may be inhibited by simultaneously increasing melt fluxes. We find that Antarctic Bottom Water formation, projected to decline as CO2increases, is likely to decline further with an increasing meltwater flux. In our simulations, the response of the westerly wind jet to increasing CO2is enhanced when the meltwater flux increases, resulting in a stronger peak wind stress than is found when either CO2or melt rates increase exclusively. We find that the sensitivity of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current to increasing melt fluxes in the Southern Ocean is countered by increasing CO2, removing or reducing a feedback mechanism that may otherwise allow more heat to be transported to the polar regions and drive increasing ice shelf melt rates. The insights presented here and in a companion paper (which focuses on the effect of increasing melt fluxes under preindustrial forcings) provide insights helpful to the interpretation of both future climate projections and sensitivity studies into the effect of increasing melt fluxes from the Antarctic ice sheet when different forcing scenarios are used.
Direct Temporal Cascade of Temperature Variance in Eddy-Permitting Simulations of Multidecadal Variability
Authors: Hochet Antoine , Huck Thierry , Arzel Olivier , Sévellec Florian , Colin de Verdière Alain , Mazloff Matthew , Cornuelle Bruce
Published: August 2020

The North Atlantic is characterized by basin-scale multidecadal fluctuations of the sea surface temperature with periods ranging from 20 to 70 years. One candidate for such a variability is a large-scale baroclinic instability of the temperature gradients across the Atlantic associated with the North Atlantic Current. Because of the long time scales involved, most of the studies devoted to this problem are based on low-resolution numerical models leaving aside the effect of explicit mesoscale eddies. How high-frequency motions associated with the mesoscale eddy field affect the basin-scale low-frequency variability is the central question of this study. This issue is addressed using an idealized configuration of an ocean general circulation model at eddy-permitting resolution (20 km). A new diagnostic allowing the calculation of nonlinear fluxes of temperature variance in frequency space is presented. Using this diagnostic, we show that the primary effect of mesoscale eddies is to damp low-frequency temperature variance and to transfer it to high frequencies.
Australian Precipitation Recycling and Evaporative Source Regions
Authors: Holgate C. M. , Evans J. P. , van Dijk A. I. J. M. , Pitman A. J. , Di Virgilio G.
Published: August 2020

The relative importance of atmospheric advection and local land–atmosphere coupling to Australian precipitation is uncertain. Identifying the evaporative source regions and level of precipitation recycling can help quantify the importance of local and remote marine and terrestrial moisture to precipitation within the different hydroclimates across Australia. Using a three-dimensional Lagrangian back-trajectory approach, moisture from precipitation events across Australia during 1979–2013 was tracked to determine the source of moisture (the evaporative origin) and level of precipitation recycling. We show that source regions vary markedly for precipitation falling in different regions. Advected marine moisture was relatively more important than terrestrial contributions for precipitation in all regions and seasons. For Australia as a whole, contributions from precipitation recycling varied from ~11% in winter up to ~21% in summer. The strongest land–atmosphere coupling was in the northwest and southeast where recycled local land evapotranspiration accounted for an average of 9% of warm-season precipitation. Marine contributions to precipitation in the northwest of Australia increased in spring and, coupled with positive evaporation trends in the key source regions, suggest that the observed precipitation increase is the result of intensified evaporation in the Maritime Continent and Indian and Pacific Oceans. Less clear were the processes behind an observed shift in moisture contribution from winter to summer in southeastern Australia. Establishing the climatological source regions and the magnitude of moisture recycling enables future investigation of anomalous precipitation during extreme periods and provides further insight into the processes driving Australia’s variable precipitation.
Dependence of Beaufort Sea Low Ice Condition in the Summer of 1998 on Ice Export in the Prior Winter
Authors: Zhang Yongli , Wei Hao , Lu Youyu , Luo Xiaofan , Hu Xianmin , Zhao Wei
Published: August 2020

Four events of distinctly low summer ice coverage in the Beaufort Sea, in 1998, 2008, 2012, and 2016, have been identified using satellite-observed concentration between 1979 and 2017. Previous studies have revealed that these four minima were impacted by preconditioning of the ice cover, and specifically the 1998 event was preconditioned toward thinner ice by anomalous southeasterly winds during winter. This study further investigates the 1998 event through analyzing the solution of a coupled ocean and sea ice model. Compared with the mean condition during 1995–2015, the net ice loss in the melt season (May–September) of 1998 was not particularly high. In the preceding fall (October–December 1997), the ice conditions and processes contributing to ice changes were neither significantly different from the mean condition nor unique in the time series during 1995–2015. In the preceding winter (January–April 1998), over the southeastern part of the Beaufort Sea, the ice was 1.5 m thinner than the mean condition on average, and the increase in ice thickness due to freezing was nearly offset by the decrease due to lateral advection, which was the result of high westward ice export and limited southerly import. The dynamic process in preceding winter was also the cause of low ice in summer 2016 according to a recent study. Model analyses suggest that the 2008 event was due to the small regional ice volume at the end of summer 2007 and ice export during the preceding fall, whereas the 2012 event was caused by the excessive summer melting.
Processes Shaping the Frontal-Scale Time-Mean Surface Wind Convergence Patterns around the Gulf Stream and Agulhas Return Current in Winter
Authors: Masunaga Ryusuke , Nakamura Hisashi , Taguchi Bunmei , Miyasaka Takafumi
Published: August 2020

High-resolution satellite observations and numerical experiments have revealed local enhancement of time-mean surface wind convergence along the axes of warm western boundary currents and divergence slightly poleward. A recent study has suggested that frequent occurrence of persistent atmospheric fronts and sea level pressure (SLP) troughs along a sea surface temperature (SST) front are responsible for shaping the frontal-scale wind convergence and divergence contrast as seen in the wintertime climatology near the Kuroshio Extension (KE). These events tend to induce surface wind convergence with moderate magnitude. Through atmospheric reanalysis with high-resolution SST, the present study reveals that, as in the vicinity of the KE, surface wind convergence with moderate magnitude and divergence with moderate-to-extreme magnitude are found to play a primary role in shaping the climatological-mean wind convergence–divergence contrasts across the SST fronts near the Gulf Stream (GS) and Agulhas Return Current (ARC) in winter. In contrast, strong-to-extreme convergence events associated with synoptic-scale atmospheric disturbances are found to yield horizontally uniform time-mean wind convergence. Furthermore, cluster analysis and case studies suggest that persistent atmospheric fronts and SLP troughs are responsible for inducing moderate wind convergence also near the GS and ARC. Thus, these features are consistent with their counterpart near the KE, but the impacts of the ARC tend to be substantially weaker, probably due to its cooler SST among other potential factors.
U.K. Climate Projections: Summer Daytime and Nighttime Urban Heat Island Changes in England’s Major Cities
Authors: Eunice Lo Y. T. , Mitchell Daniel M. , Bohnenstengel Sylvia I. , Collins Mat , Hawkins Ed , Hegerl Gabriele C. , Joshi Manoj , Stott Peter A.
Published: August 2020

In the United Kingdom, where 90% of residents are projected to live in urban areas by 2050, projecting changes in urban heat islands (UHIs) is essential to municipal adaptation. Increased summer temperatures are linked to increased mortality. Using the new regional U.K. Climate Projections, UKCP18-regional, we estimate the 1981–2079 trends in summer urban and rural near-surface air temperatures and in UHI intensities during day and at night in the 10 most populous built-up areas in England. Summer temperatures increase by 0.45°–0.81°C per decade under RCP8.5, depending on the time of day and location. Nighttime temperatures increase more in urban than rural areas, enhancing the nighttime UHI by 0.01°–0.05°C per decade in all cities. When these upward UHI signals emerge from 2008–18 variability, positive summer nighttime UHI intensities of up to 1.8°C are projected in most cities. However, we can prevent most of these upward nighttime UHI signals from emerging by stabilizing climate to the Paris Agreement target of 2°C above preindustrial levels. In contrast, daytime UHI intensities decrease in nine cities, at rates between −0.004° and −0.05°C per decade, indicating a trend toward a reduced daytime UHI effect. These changes reflect different feedbacks over urban and rural areas and are specific to UKCP18-regional. Future research is important to better understand the drivers of these UHI intensity changes.
Radiative Effects of Clouds and Water Vapor on an Axisymmetric Monsoon
Authors: Byrne Michael P. , Zanna Laure
Published: August 2020

Monsoons are summertime circulations shaping climates and societies across the tropics and subtropics. Here the radiative effects controlling an axisymmetric monsoon and its response to climate change are investigated using aquaplanet simulations. The influences of clouds, water vapor, and CO2 on the axisymmetric monsoon are decomposed using the radiation-locking technique. Seasonal variations in clouds and water vapor strongly modulate the axisymmetric monsoon, reducing net precipitation by approximately half. Warming and moistening of the axisymmetric monsoon by seasonal longwave cloud and water vapor effects are counteracted by a strong shortwave cloud effect. The shortwave cloud effect also expedites onset of the axisymmetric monsoon by approximately two weeks, whereas longwave cloud and water vapor effects delay onset. A conceptual model relates the timing of monsoon onset to the efficiency of surface cooling. In climate change simulations CO2 forcing and the water vapor feedback have similar influences on the axisymmetric monsoon, warming the surface and moistening the region. In contrast, clouds have a negligible effect on surface temperature yet dominate the monsoon circulation response. A new perspective for understanding how cloud radiative effects shape the monsoon circulation response to climate change is introduced. The radiation-locking simulations and analyses advance understanding of how radiative processes influence an axisymmetric monsoon, and establish a framework for interpreting monsoon–radiation coupling in observations, in state-of-the-art models, and in different climate states.
Weakening of Cold Halocline Layer Exposes Sea Ice to Oceanic Heat in the Eastern Arctic Ocean
Authors: Polyakov Igor V. , Rippeth Tom P. , Fer Ilker , Alkire Matthew B. , Baumann Till M. , Carmack Eddy C. , Ingvaldsen Randi , Ivanov Vladimir V. , Janout Markus , Lind Sigrid , Padman Laurie , Pnyushkov Andrey V. , Rember Robert
Published: August 2020

A 15-yr duration record of mooring observations from the eastern (>70°E) Eurasian Basin (EB) of the Arctic Ocean is used to show and quantify the recently increased oceanic heat flux from intermediate-depth (~150–900 m) warm Atlantic Water (AW) to the surface mixed layer and sea ice. The upward release of AW heat is regulated by the stability of the overlying halocline, which we show has weakened substantially in recent years. Shoaling of the AW has also contributed, with observations in winter 2017–18 showing AW at only 80 m depth, just below the wintertime surface mixed layer, the shallowest in our mooring records. The weakening of the halocline for several months at this time implies that AW heat was linked to winter convection associated with brine rejection during sea ice formation. This resulted in a substantial increase of upward oceanic heat flux during the winter season, from an average of 3–4 W m−2 in 2007–08 to >10 W m−2 in 2016–18. This seasonal AW heat loss in the eastern EB is equivalent to a more than a twofold reduction of winter ice growth. These changes imply a positive feedback as reduced sea ice cover permits increased mixing, augmenting the summer-dominated ice-albedo feedback.
Modulations of North American and European Weather Variability and Extremes by Interdecadal Variability of the Atmospheric Circulation over the North Atlantic Sector
Authors: Martineau Patrick , Nakamura Hisashi , Kosaka Yu , Taguchi Bunmei , Mori Masato
Published: August 2020

The dominant mode of wintertime interdecadal covariability between subseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) variability and midtropospheric circulation over the North Atlantic sector is identified through maximum covariance analysis applied to century-long reanalysis data. This mode highlights a tendency for subseasonal temperature variability over Europe and eastern North America to be enhanced during decades when the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) prevails. This interdecadal NAO is characterized by a stationary Rossby wave train that originates from the subtropical Atlantic, propagates northward into the subpolar Atlantic, and finally refracts toward Europe and the Middle East. A decadal increase in precipitation in the subtropics under the enhanced supply of heat and moisture from the Gulf Stream and its surroundings appears to act as a source for this wave train. The influence of the interdecadal NAO on subseasonal SAT variability is explained primarily by the modulated efficiency of baroclinic conversion of available potential energy from the background atmospheric flow to subseasonal eddies. The combination of enhanced subseasonal variability and low winter-mean temperature anomalies associated with the negative phase of the interdecadal NAO increases the frequency of cold extremes affecting Europe and the eastern United States.
The Arctic Surface Climate in CMIP6: Status and Developments since CMIP5
Authors: Davy Richard , Outten Stephen
Published: August 2020

Here we evaluate the sea ice, surface air temperature, and sea level pressure from 34 of the models used in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for their biases, trends, and variability, and compare them to the CMIP5 ensemble and ERA5 for the period 1979 to 2004. The principal purpose of this assessment is to provide an overview of the ability of the CMIP6 ensemble to represent the Arctic climate, and to see how this has changed since the last phase of CMIP. Overall, we find a distinct improvement in the representation of the sea ice volume and extent, the latter mostly linked to improvements in the seasonal cycle in the Barents Sea. However, numerous model biases have persisted into CMIP6 including too-cold conditions in the winter (4-K cold bias) and a negative trend in the day-to-day variability over ice in winter. We find that under the low-emission scenario, SSP126, the Arctic climate is projected to stabilize by 2060 with an annual mean sea ice extent of around 2.5 million km2 and an annual mean temperature 4.7 K warmer than the early-twentieth-century average, compared to 1.7 K of warming globally.
Interannual Variability of the Basinwide Translation Speed of Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific
Authors: Wang Chao , Wu Liguang , Lu Jun , Liu Qingyuan , Zhao Haikun , Tian Wei , Cao Jian
Published: August 2020

Understanding variations in tropical cyclone (TC) translation speed (TCS) is of great importance for islands and coastal regions since it is an important factor in determining TC-induced local damages. Investigating the long-term change in TCS was usually subject to substantial limitations in the quality of historical TC records, but here we investigated the interannual variability in TCS over the western North Pacific (WNP) Ocean by using reliable satellite TC records. It was found that both temporal changes in large-scale steering flow and TC track greatly contributed to interannual variability in the WNP TCS. In the peak season (July–September), TCS changes were closely related to temporal variations in large-scale steering flow, which was linked to the intensity of the western North Pacific subtropical high. However, for the late season (October–December), changes in TC track played a vital role in interannual variability in TCS while the impacts of temporal variations in large-scale steering were weak. The changes in TC track were mainly contributed by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced zonal migrations in TC genesis locations, which make more or fewer TCs move to the subtropical WNP, thus leading to notable changes in the basinwide TCS because of the much greater large-scale steering in the subtropical WNP. The increased influence of TC track change on TCS in the late season was linked to the greater contrast between the subtropical and the tropical large-scale steering in the late season. These results have important implications for understanding current and future variations in TCS.
Coupling of Surface Ocean Heat and Carbon Perturbations over the Subtropical Cells under Twenty-First Century Climate Change
Authors: Rodgers K. B. , Ishii M. , Frölicher T. L. , Schlunegger S. , Aumont O. , Toyama K. , Slater R. D.
Published: August 2020

It is well established that the ocean plays an important role in absorbing anthropogenic carbon Cant from the atmosphere. Under global warming, Earth system model simulations and theoretical arguments indicate that the capacity of the ocean to absorb Cant will be reduced, with this constituting a positive carbon–climate feedback. Here we apply a suite of sensitivity simulations with a comprehensive Earth system model to demonstrate that the surface waters of the shallow overturning structures (spanning 45°S–45°N) sustain nearly half of the global ocean carbon–climate feedback. The main results reveal a feedback that is initially triggered by warming but that amplifies over time as Cant invasion enhances the sensitivity of surface pCO2 to further warming, particularly in the warmer season. Importantly, this “heat–carbon feedback” mechanism is distinct from (and significantly weaker than) what one would expect from temperature-controlled solubility perturbations to pCO2 alone. It finds independent confirmation in an additional perturbation experiment with the same Earth system model. There mechanism denial is applied by disallowing the secular trend in the physical state of the ocean under climate change, while simultaneously allowing the effects of heating to impact sea surface pCO2 and thereby CO2 uptake. Reemergence of Cant along the equator within the shallow overturning circulation plays an important role in the heat–carbon feedback, with the decadal renewal time scale for thermocline waters modulating the feedback response. The results here for 45°S–45°N stand in contrast to what is found in the high latitudes, where a clear signature of a broader range of driving mechanisms is present.
Quantifying the Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Contribution to the Observed Spring Snow-Cover Decline Using the CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble
Authors: Paik Seungmok , Min Seung-Ki
Published: August 2020

This study conducts a detection and attribution analysis of the observed changes in boreal spring snow-cover extent (SCE) for an extended period of 1925–2019 for early spring (March and April) and 1970–2019 for late spring (May and June) using updated observations and multimodel simulations from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The observed and simulated SCE changes over the Northern Hemisphere (NH), Eurasia, and North America are compared using an optimal fingerprinting technique. Detection results indicate that anthropogenic influences are robustly detected in the observed SCE decrease over NH and the continental regions, in separation from natural forcing influences. In contrast to previous studies, anthropogenic response in the early spring SCE shows a consistent magnitude with observations, due to an extension of the time period to 2019. It is demonstrated for the first time that the greenhouse gas (GHG) influence is robustly detected in separation from anthropogenic aerosol and natural forcing influences, and that most of the observed spring SCE decrease is attributable to GHG influences. The observed SCE decline is also found to be closely associated with the surface warming over the corresponding extratropical lands. Our first quantification of GHG contribution to the observed SCE changes has important implications for reliable future projections of the SCE changes and its hydrological and ecological impacts.
Moisture Sources Associated with Precipitation during Dry and Wet Seasons over Central Asia
Authors: Peng Dongdong , Zhou Tianjun , Zhang Lixia
Published: August 2020

Identifying the origin of moisture is a key process in revealing the formation mechanisms of precipitation, but the moisture sources for central Asia have not been well documented in previous studies. In this work, we employ the Lagrangian model FLEXPART over 2011–19 to address this question. Multiple observational products indicate that the times of dry and wet seasons are opposite for western and eastern central Asia bounded by 75°E. The wet season is November–April (NDJFMA) for western central Asia but May–October (MJJASO) for eastern central Asia, while the opposite is true for the dry season. The main moisture source regions for western central Asia are local regions (with a contribution of 49.11%), western Eurasia (21.47%), and western Asia (11.37%) during MJJASO and local regions (33.92%), western Asia (27.50%), and western Eurasia (17.60%) during NDJFMA. For eastern central Asia, moisture mainly originates from local regions (52.38%), western central Asia (25.22%), and northern Eurasia (9.26%) during MJJASO and western central Asia (30.86%), local regions (30.82%), western Asia (10.31%), and western Eurasia (10.26%) during NDJFMA. The differences in moisture sources between dry and wet seasons mainly occur in local regions and western Asia for western central Asia but in local regions for eastern central Asia. The moisture from northern Eurasia, western Eurasia, and western central Asia is transported into target regions by the westerly and southwesterly winds that are associated with a deep low trough over central Asia. Moisture is transported from western Asia by the anticyclone occurs over North Africa and western Asia in the lower and middle troposphere.
Global Patterns of Spatial and Temporal Variability in Salinity from Multiple Gridded Argo Products
Authors: Liu Chao , Liang Xinfeng , Chambers Don P. , Ponte Rui M.
Published: August 2020

Salinity is one of the fundamental ocean state variables and has been used to infer important information about climate change and variability. Previous studies have found inconsistent salinity variations in various objective ocean analyses that are based on the Argo measurements. However, as far as we are aware, a comprehensive assessment of those inconsistencies, as well as robust spatial and temporal features of salinity variability among the Argo-based products, has not been conducted. Here we compare and evaluate ocean salinity variability from five objective ocean analyses that are solely or primarily based on Argo measurements for their overlapping period from 2005 to 2015. We examine the salinity variability at the sea surface and within two depth intervals (0–700 and 700–2000 m). Our results show that the climatological mean is generally consistent among all examined products, although regional discrepancies are evident in the subsurface ocean. The time evolution, vertical structure, and leading EOF modes of salinity variations show good agreement among most of the examined products, indicating that a number of robust features of the salinity variability can be obtained by examining gridded Argo products. However, significant discrepancies in these variations exist, particularly in the subsurface North Atlantic and Southern Oceans. Also, despite the increasing number of Argo floats deployed in the ocean, the discrepancies were not significantly reduced over time. Our analyses, particularly those of the discrepancies between products, can serve as a useful reference for utilizing and improving the existing objective ocean analyses that are based on Argo measurements.
Biases in CMIP5 Sea Surface Temperature and the Annual Cycle of East African Rainfall
Authors: Lyon Bradfield
Published: August 2020

In much of East Africa, climatological rainfall follows a bimodal distribution characterized by the long rains (March–May) and short rains (October–December). Most CMIP5 coupled models fail to properly simulate this annual cycle, typically reversing the amplitudes of the short and long rains relative to observations. This study investigates how CMIP5 climatological sea surface temperature (SST) biases contribute to simulation errors in the annual cycle of East African rainfall. Monthly biases in CMIP5 climatological SSTs (50°S–50°N) are first identified in historical runs (1979–2005) from 31 models and examined for consistency. An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is then forced with observed SSTs (1979–2005) generating a set of control runs and observed SSTs plus the monthly, multimodel mean SST biases generating a set of “bias” runs for the same period. The control runs generally capture the observed annual cycle of East African rainfall while the bias runs capture prominent CMIP5 annual cycle biases, including too little (much) precipitation during the long rains (short rains) and a 1-month lag in the peak of the long rains relative to observations. Diagnostics reveal the annual cycle biases are associated with seasonally varying north–south- and east–west-oriented SST bias patterns in Indian Ocean and regional-scale atmospheric circulation and stability changes, the latter primarily associated with changes in low-level moist static energy. Overall, the results indicate that CMIP5 climatological SST biases are the primary driver of the improper simulation of the annual cycle of East African rainfall. Some implications for climate change projections are discussed.
Dynamical Characteristics of Drought in the Caribbean from Observations and Simulations
Authors: Herrera Dimitris A. , Ault Toby R. , Carrillo Carlos M. , Fasullo John T. , Li Xiaolu , Evans Colin P. , Alessi Marc J. , Mahowald Natalie M.
Published: August 2020

Climate models consistently project a significant drying in the Caribbean during climate change, and between 2013 and 2016 the region experienced the worst multiyear drought in the historical period. Although dynamical mechanisms have been proposed to explain drought in the Caribbean, the contributions from mass convergence and advection to precipitation minus evaporation (P − E) anomalies during drought are unknown. Here we analyze the dynamics of contemporaneous droughts in the Caribbean by decomposing the contributions of mass convergence and advection to P − E using observational and simulated data. We find that droughts arise from an anomalous subsidence over the southeastern Caribbean and northeastern South America. Although the contributions from mass convergence and advection vary across the region, it is mass convergence that is the main driver of drought in our study area. A similar dynamical pattern is observed in simulated droughts using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LENS).
Assessing Global and Regional Effects of Reconstructed Land-Use and Land-Cover Change on Climate since 1950 Using a Coupled Land–Atmosphere–Ocean Model
Authors: Huang Huilin , Xue Yongkang , Chilukoti Nagaraju , Liu Ye , Chen Gang , Diallo Ismaila
Published: August 2020

Land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) is one of the most important forcings affecting climate in the past century. This study evaluates the global and regional LULCC impacts in 1950–2015 by employing an annually updated LULCC map in a coupled land–atmosphere–ocean model. The difference between LULCC and control experiments shows an overall land surface temperature (LST) increase by 0.48 K in the LULCC regions and a widespread LST decrease by 0.18 K outside the LULCC regions. A decomposed temperature metric (DTM) is applied to quantify the relative contribution of surface processes to temperature changes. Furthermore, while precipitation in the LULCC areas is reduced in agreement with declined evaporation, LULCC causes a southward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) with a narrowing by 0.5°, leading to a tripole anomalous precipitation pattern over the warm pool. The DTM shows that the temperature response in LULCC regions results from the competing effect between increased albedo (cooling) and reduced evaporation (warming). The reduced evaporation indicates less atmospheric latent heat release in convective processes and thus a drier and cooler troposphere, resulting in a reduction in surface cooling outside the LULCC regions. The southward shift of the ITCZ implies a northward cross-equatorial energy transport anomaly in response to reduced latent/sensible heat of the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere, where LULCC is more intensive. Tropospheric cooling results in the equatorward shift of the upper-tropospheric westerly jet in both hemispheres, which, in turn, leads to an equatorward narrowing of the Hadley circulation and ITCZ.