bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Future projections of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China using the emergent constraint
Authors: Xue Rufan , Li Wanling , Li Huixin , Luo Xiaochun , Ai Wenwen
Published: February 2023

In the context of global warming, droughts occur more frequently and have caused great losses to human society. Therefore, understanding the potential changes in future droughts under climate change is of great scientific importance. In this paper, combining with climate models from CMIP6, the emergent constraint and the Model Goodness Index (MGI) are used to analyze the characteristics of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in China under four socioeconomic scenarios in the mid- and late 21st century. The results show that in the mid-21st century, there will be more frequent meteorological, agricultural and hydrological droughts in northern China. In the late 21st century, longer and more intense droughts are more likely to occur in China than in the mid-21st century. This indicates that drought events in China will gradually become more continuous and serious from the middle to the late 21st century. Additionally, northwestern and central China will be the main areas where the three types of drought areas and extreme droughts will increase in the future. In the mid-21st century, a higher socioeconomic scenario will suppress drought, which will enhance drought conversely in the late 21st century. These findings are of great significance for drought monitoring under climate change and can provide a basis for making a drought response plan.
Evaluation of the terrestrial sedimentary system response to astronomical forcing
Authors: Huang He
Published: February 2023

When astronomical cycles can be reliably identified in the sedimentary record, they can provide a basis for paleoclimatic interpretations and the construction of an astrochronology. However, different paleoclimate proxies carry different astronomical-climatic-depositional information, which can display distinct orbital frequency features in strata. How to evaluate response of varied sedimentary environments to astronomical forcing remains a mystery. Here, we developed the Random-length Average Orbital Power Ratio calculation (RAOPR) method to evaluate the average power ratio distributions within a specific time interval. We have applied this new method to the theoretical eccentricity-tilt-precession (ETP) plus noise series and a ~24 million-year-long Cretaceous terrestrial stratigraphic record. From the merged ETP plus noise series and geological record, we observed different orbital signal component distributions. For the Cretaceous terrestrial Songliao Basin, we combined the integratePower method to retrieve the long-term orbital variations and used the RAOPR method to evaluate the orbital signal distribution in different lithological formations (or depositional environment intervals). We found that in different sedimentary environments, orbital signals show significant discrepancy both in magnitudes and ratios, indicating different depositional processes and local geological events have resulted in emergence, amplification, displacement and suppression of orbital frequency. Our study highlights the interaction between the external orbital forcing and internal climatic and/or depositional feedbacks and their influence on assessing the orbital signals from the stratigraphic successions.
Process-based and data-driven approaches for landslide forecasting: A quantitative comparison on regional scale
Authors: Abraham Minu Treesa , Satyam Neelima
Published: February 2023

In the context of increasing number of landslide disasters, it is important to have efficient Landslide Early Warning Systems (LEWS). LEWS can reduce the risk with sufficient warning time and understanding the hazard and forecasting landslides is an important component of any LEWS. On local or slope scales, an early warning can be achieved with continuous monitoring, but on a regional scale, precise monitoring is still a question due to economical and practical concerns. Regional scale LEWS often relies on data-driven approaches such as rainfall thresholds, while process-based approaches are applied to smaller areas like single basins or watersheds due to complexities associated with precise data collection. The process-based approaches consider both spatial and temporal rainfall triggering factors as inputs, and hence they provide deterministic indices for the stability of a slope, based on both spatial and temporal conditions. In this study, a data-driven approach integrating probabilistic hydro-meteorological thresholds and landslide susceptibility maps (LSM) is used to develop a spatio-temporal landslide forecasting framework for a district in the southern part of India, Idukki. The method is then compared with two process-based approaches (Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-based Regional Slope Stability (TRIGRS) and SHALSTAB) using a receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) approach, using the landslide data of August 2018. From the analysis, it was observed that the data-driven approach has an efficiency of 81.21 %, while for TRIGRS and SHALTAB, the efficiencies are 72.15 % and 70.10 % respectively. The corresponding area under curve (AUC) values for all three models are 0.92, 0.80, and 0.76 respectively. The results indicate that the proposed data-driven model can perform better than both the process-based approaches, bypassing the complexities associated with physics-based modeling.
Indoor Radon Measurements in public and private buildings in the Ciampino municipality and its risk perception assessment
Authors: Sciarra Alessandra , Pizzino Luca , Ruggiero Livio , Galli Gianfranco , Ricci Tullio , Ciotoli Giancarlo , Nave Rosella , Graziani Stefano , Beaubien Stanley E. , Bigi Sabina
Published: February 2023

Radon is a natural radioactive gas produced by the decay of its parent nuclide in bearing rocks and soils. Inhalation of radon gas poses a serious risk for human health and the World Health Organization stated the doubtless correlation between long exposure to radon gas and lung cancer. In this context, 76 indoor radon measurements in private and public buildings were performed in the Ciampino municipality. This study was carried out within the framework of the LIFE-Respire project. Indoor radon concentration was measured by using passive nuclear track detectors (CR-39) and analysed using RADOSYS system at INGV Radionuclides laboratory. Measurements were carried out in winter and summer seasons to assess the range of seasonal fluctuations, as recognised elsewhere. Results show a substantial increase of maximum indoor values in winter (up to 1575 Bq/m3) that are two times higher than those measured in the summer period (up to 764 Bq/m3). The annual mean and median values (283 and 203 Bq/m3, respectively) are both below the EU recommended limit of 300 Bq/m3.Moreover, a questionnaire on radon risk perception was designed for the specific context of the LIFE-Respire project and distributed in a sample of residents and students in the Municipality of Ciampino to measure, among many other aspects, the salience of the hazard, knowledge of the hazard and of hazard mitigation strategies, perceived preparedness of and trust in officials, sources of received information and preferred methods of receiving information, and the level of interest in the project approach (including remediation measures).
Overview of the services provided to marine data producers by ODATIS, the French ocean data center
Authors: Schmidt Sabine , Quimbert Erwann , Vernet Marine , Sudre Joël , Mercier Caroline , Obaton Dominique , Piollé Jean-François , Merceur Frédéric , Dibarboure Gérald , Maudire Gilbert
Published: February 2023

The consequences of global change on the ocean are multiple such as increase in temperature and sea level, stronger storms, deoxygenation, impacts on ecosystems. But the detection of changes and impacts is still difficult because of the diversity and variability of marine environments. While there has been a clear increase in the number of marine and coastal observations, whether by in situ, laboratory or remote sensing measurements, each data is both costly to acquire and unique. The number and variety of data acquisition techniques require efficient methods of improving data availability via interoperable portals, which facilitate data sharing according to FAIR principles for producers and users. ODATIS, the ocean cluster of Data Terra, the French research infrastructure for Earth data, is the entry point to access all the French Ocean observation data (Ocean Data Information and Services ; www.odatis-ocean.fr/en/). The first challenge of ODATIS is to get data producers to share data. To that purpose, ODATIS offers several services to help them define Data Management Plan (DPM), implement the FAIR principles, make data more visible and accessible by being referenced in the ODATIS catalog, and better tracked and cited through a Digital Object Identifier (DOI). ODATIS also offers a service for publishing open scientific data on the sea, through SEANOE (www.seanoe.org) that provides a DOI that can be cited in scientific articles in a reliable and sustainable way. In parallel to the informatic development of the ocean cluster, further communication and training are needed to inform the research community of these new tools. Through technical workshops, Odatis offers data providers practical experience and support in implementing data access, visualization and processing services. Finally, ODATIS relies on scientific consortia in order to promote and develop innovative processing methods and products for remote, airborne, or in situ observations of the ocean and its interfaces (atmosphere, coastline, seafloor) with the other clusters of the RI Data Terra.
Interseismic locking on a megathrust controls long term strain partitioning in a subduction zone
Authors: Lamb Simon
Published: February 2023

Along the Hikurangi Margin in New Zealand, the Pacific plate is obliquely (~45°) subducting beneath the Australian plate at ~40 mm/yr. The overlying deforming wedge has long term strain partitioning, with some trench-parallel plate motion focused on major dextral strike-slip faults in the back part of the deforming wedge. These faults pose a major seismic hazard, capable of rupturing as M6 to M8+ earthquakes.

Here, I analyse GNSS measurements of the decadal interseismic strain rates in part of eastern North Island, where the northern Wellington Fault is the only major dextral strike-slip fault. The fault plane is subvertical, with a slip rate over the Holocene of 5 – 10 mm/yr. The interseismic deformation is well modelled by a simple 2-D elastic dislocation model in which the underlying subduction megathrust is fully locked at depths between 30 and 8 km. The creeping (or with repeated slow slip events) deeper and shallower parts of the megathrust slip at the full relative plate velocity. Importantly, the model contains no information about the slip rate and geometry of the major faults in the overlying deforming wedge, and it cannot predict these slip rates; the pattern of interseismic strain rates appears to be dictated solely by the locking on the megathrust. However, the strike-slip fault is precisely located where the interseismic shear strain rate is at its maximum, directly above the deeper locking line, and so locking on the megathrust appears to determine the pattern of long-term strain partitioning too. During a large magnitude earthquake on the northern Wellington Fault, the entire thickness of the wedge must rupture. The existence of several inactive parallel faults adjacent to the active trace suggests that the position of the megathrust locking line has moved over time.

The paleoseismic record indicates that earthquakes on the Wellington Fault are independent of megathrust slip events. However, only about 30% of the component of trench-parallel relative plate motion is taken up on the northern Wellington Fault, so there must also be some oblique slip on the megathrust itself. The degree of partitioning is a consequence of the relative frequency of large magnitude earthquakes on the megathrust compared to those in the overlying deforming wedge, assuming constant stress drops for individual earthquakes. The interseismic megathrust locking must be a key factor here, because this controls the stress field at the point where a large magnitude earthquake is most likely to nucleate, and thus which faults will rupture.
Adsorption of Hexavalent Chromium by magnetite particles synthesized at various temperatures: effect of magnetic properties of the particles on individual adsorption mechanisms
Authors: Ganguly Shreya , Ganguly Sayantan
Published: February 2023

Chromium (VI) [Cr(VI)] is abundantly used for several industrial applications especially in stainless steel production and as an anti-corrosive agent in ceramics, textile industries and tanneries. Despite its versatile uses, Cr (VI) is a major environmental threat and is a known carcinogen. Therefore, proper precaution must be implemented while working with Cr (VI) or while disposing it after use. Due to improper handling and lack of proper care, Cr(VI) is still found in industrial wastewaters or landfill sites. The Cr(VI) in landfills can leach into the ground during rainfall and can risk the contamination of the groundwater causing a health catastrophe when consumed. This study focuses on effective Cr(VI) remediation by the process of adsorption. Magnetite particles synthesized by co-precipitation method at various temperatures (room temperature of 25οC, 60οC and 90οC) are used as an absorbent for achieving maximum removal efficiency of Cr(VI) from water. An initial concentration of 10mg/l at pH 7.2 and time of contact 10 minutes is taken as the starting parameters for Cr(VI) for the batch adsorption studies. The surface morphology, chemical composition and the magnetic properties of the magnetite particles are determined from FESEM (Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscope), EDS (Energy-Dispersive  Spectroscopy) and VSM (Vibrating Sample magnetometer) characterization methods, respectively. The synthesis of the magnetite particles at various temperatures can affect both its physical (mainly pore size, shape, texture etc.) and magnetic properties and therefore can pose significant changes on the adsorption efficiency. The effect of the magnetite particle dose, pH of Cr(VI), time of contact between the magnetite particles and Cr(VI) and the effect of the change in the concentration of Cr(VI) are predicted in this study. A special focus is given on determining the variation in the magnetic properties of the magnetite particles due to different temperatures of synthesis. In case of any such noteworthy change in the magnetic properties, the alteration in the individual adsorption capacities of the iron-oxide particles are highlighted in this study. Langmuir and Freundlich isotherm models are used to predict the adsorption mechanisms.Keywords: Adsorption; Magnetite particles; Characterization; Magnetic properties; Langmuir and Freundlich isotherms.
Source apportionment of water-soluble and water-insoluble metal content of coarse and fine PM in central Los Angeles
Authors: Sioutas Constantinos , Badami Mohammad Mahdi , Tohidi Ramin , Jalali Farahani Vahid
Published: February 2023

In this study, principal component analysis (PCA) was utilized to identify the sources of water-soluble and water-insoluble metal content of coarse and fine PM in the air. The sampling campaign was conducted in winter (December 2021-February 2022) at the University of Southern California Particle Instrumentation Unit (PIU) in central Los Angeles. Ambient PM2.5 and coarse PM samples were collected on Teflon filters and chemically analyzed to quantify their water-soluble and total metal content. The Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) model was employed to investigate the contribution of each found factor by PCA to the total metal. The most abundant elements in the fine size range were Na, S, Fe, Al, and Ca, while in the coarse range, they were Na, Fe, Ca, Al, and Mg. Ca, Na, and Zn exhibited the highest solubility levels in both size ranges, while Ti, Fe, and Al showed the lowest solubility. Most metals had higher solubility in the fine size fraction. The PCA results indicated that the tire and brake wear source factor contributed significantly to the water-soluble fraction of metals in both size ranges, whereas the soil and re-suspended road dust source factor had the most contribution to the water-insoluble fraction of metals. The primary source of fine water-soluble metal was metal-dominated abrasion due to its higher water-soluble content, typically corresponding to a greater impact of anthropogenic than crustal sources. MLR results confirmed that tire and brake wear are major sources of metal in the water-soluble fractions of both size ranges, while soil and re-suspended road dust are major sources in the water-insoluble portion.
Remote sensing approaches for land use/land cover change detection in coastal areas and oceanic islands: a systematic review
Authors: Tiengo Rafaela , Palacios-Orueta Alicia , Uchôa Jéssica , Gil Artur
Published: February 2023

Insular ecosystems are natural laboratories in which evolution processes may be isolated and examined before being connected and expanded to the more complicated patterns displayed by more extensive systems. Similarly, islands can provide insights into effective land/costal management techniques. In the current climate change context, and with most of these territories being highly vulnerable to natural hazards (e.g., landslides, volcanic eruptions, earthquakes, etc.), it is critical to detect and monitor relevant land surface, and land use/land cover (LULC) changes as soon as they occur, to identify and address their drivers and triggers through effective land/coastal planning and management policies. This research aims to evaluate the current state-of-the-art in remote sensing-based multi-sensor land surface and LULC change detection in terms data availability/complementarity, methodological approaches, data processing strategies, and parameters. A systematic literature review was undertaken using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses declaration (PRISMA) as a guideline to reach this goal. A search was run by applying nine combinations of relevant keywords and Boolean operators to the title, abstract, and keywords of pre-selected works. Review papers, conference papers, publications authored in languages other than English and  those that were not open access were not included. The search period was between January 2010 and June 2022 (the last access was done on 30 June 2022). As a result, a database including  167 journal articles from the Web of Science was created. The main results revealed an increasing number of published papers using remote sensing to map and quantify LULC change areas. Multispectral data were the most relevant source for identifying and analyzing surface changes (e.g., Landsat mission). The results revealed also that the highest number of studies was published in 2020 and 2021. The continent with more case studies was Asia, with China being the more productive country in this field. Most articles (26%) analyzed in this study were published in the Remote Sensing journal (MDPI). Moreover, this analysis showed that the combination of different parameters studied in this paper, namely the data source, data type, sensors, approaches, algorithms, software, platforms, spatial resolution and temporal resolution, might foster new opportunities for improved remote sensing-based LULC monitoring in oceanic islands and coastal areas.
Examining the role of groundwater in the spatio-temporal variation of Ecosystem Water Use Efficiency in India
Authors: Singh Akriti , Bejagam Vijaykumar , Sharma Ashutosh
Published: February 2023

Ecosystem Water Use Efficiency (WUEe) is an ecohydrological indicator that shows the strength of coupling between the carbon cycle and water cycle, and it is calculated as the net carbon gain (estimated as Net Primary Productivity, NPP) per unit of water consumed by ecosystems (estimated as Evapotranspiration, ET). The carbon and water cycles, as well as the WUEe is influenced by groundwater (GW) as it is one of the sources for supplying moisture to the terrestrial ecosystem. Various factors like meteorological factors (precipitation, temperature, aridity), vegetation types, irrigation, etc. affect the interaction between GW and WUEe. Thus, the influence of GW on the dynamics of WUEe varies spatially and temporally. In this study, remote sensing-based datasets of NPP, ET and Potential ET (PET) along with precipitation data from India Meteorological Department (IMD) and the mean annual water table depth (WTD) values taken from the equilibrium WTD model of Eurasia were utilized to analyze the response of WUEe to GW fluctuations at yearly temporal scale across India. The concept of climatic elasticity of NPP (εNPP), ET (εET) and WUEe (εWUE), which is calculated as the ratio of normalised WUEe (or NPP and ET) to Aridity Index (AI) was used to quantify the effect of climate change on the terrestrial ecosystem’s productivity. Our results showed that in general, WUEe fluxes, i.e., NPP and ET, were higher in the regions having lower WTD, such as Western Ghats and north-eastern areas. Further, we examined the responses of vegetations to climatic changes at different WTD, and the effect of irrigation on WUEe and its fluxes were studied. In general, the interactions between WTD and WUEe (and its fluxes) were stronger in the irrigated croplands. Shrublands in arid regions of India (i.e., north-western states of India) were found to be more sensitive to aridity as compared to the wet and humid regions dominated by forests and croplands type of land cover. This study gives an insight into the interaction between the ecological performance of terrestrial ecosystem and groundwater, which will support reasonable land use and groundwater management over the entire country of India.
Does plastic and microplastic change the soil physical properties? A review
Authors: Maqbool Ahsan , Gómez José Alfonso
Published: February 2023

AbstractMicroplastics (5mm) enter the soil in several ways, including directly through the purposeful use of plastic (e.g., in plastic mulch, greenhouses, or coated items) or inadvertently through the addition of sewage sludge, compost, or irrigation water that has been polluted with plastic. The effect of microplastic on plant growth, soil biota, and soil physicochemical properties has been reviewed (Shafea et al., 2022), while soil physical properties have yet to be synthesized. Soil structure is an important soil feature affecting key variables in earth system models like, e.g., soil aggregation and soil hydraulic properties (Fatichi et al., 2020). These soil physical properties are influenced by widespread microplastic dispersion and pervasiveness, which might affect the soil's capacity to provide different ecosystem services and is a potential obstacle to sustainable agriculture (Rillig & Lehmann, 2020). Thereby, we present the preliminary results of a review on the plastic and microplastic impact on soil physical properties, including soil compaction, soil aggregation, water retention and transmission, and porosity, from peer-reviewed publications. Our review indicates that increasing plastic and microplastic concentration reduces soil compaction due to changes in bulk density. Soil structure and aggregate stability are also subject to alteration due to plastic contamination. Microplastic in the soil might affect water repellency, mainly measured by water drop penetration time. However, data on hydraulic properties, thermal properties, and pore-size distribution are scant. Moreover, potential factors, i.e., plastic-type, size, concentration, and soil type, by which microplastic can influence soil physical properties, are also discussed. This communication tries to identify trends in the influence of plastic and microplastic among different treatments using different indexes. From this analysis, we identify knowledge gaps for future studies.Keywords: agroecosystem, microplastic, soil aggregates, infiltration.References Fatichi, S., Or, D., Walko, R., Vereecken, H., Young, M. H., Ghezzehei, T. A., Hengl, T., Kollet, S., Agam, N., & Avissar, R. (2020). Soil structure is an important omission in Earth System Models. Nature Communications, 11(1), 522. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-14411-zRillig, M. C., & Lehmann, A. (2020). Microplastic in terrestrial ecosystems. Science, 368(6498), 1430–1431. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abb5979Shafea, L., Yap, J., Beriot, N., Felde, V. J. M. N. L., Okoffo, E. D., Enyoh, C. E., & Peth, S. (2022). Microplastics in agroecosystems: A review of effects on soil biota and key soil functions. Journal of Plant Nutrition and Soil Science. https://doi.org/10.1002/jpln.20220013
Quantification of water flow in permafrost rock walls
Authors: Scandroglio Riccardo , Weber Samuel , Rehm Till , Krautblatter Michael
Published: February 2023

Here we present the first multi-annual study in periglacial environments quantifying and characterizing water accumulation in bedrock joints with the help of lysimeters, weather data, snowmelt modeling and gravimetric monitoring.Continuous measurements allow to detect the timing and to estimate the quantity of water accumulations. These can easily generate significant hydrostatic pressures in sealed clefts and are one of the most important but less understood contributors to slope destabilization. Due to the recent increase of temperatures and the consequent deepening of active layers, it is expected that the influence of water will increase and potentially lead to bigger instabilities, dangerous for people and expensive for infrastructures.Measurements have been conducted at Mount Zugspitze (Germany/Austria, 2962 m a.s.l.). Hourly cleft water discharge was recorded in a tunnel by two lysimeters-like loggers, high frequency weather data from the summit were provided by the German Meteorological Service and snow measurements from the plateau were obtained from the Bavarian Avalanche Service. Monthly measurements with a relative spring gravimeter Scintrex CG-5 were conducted in the tunnel together with the TUM Institute of Astronomical and Physical Geodesy to monitor water mass changes. Additionally, our temperature loggers and electrical resistivity tomographies recorded permafrost degradation, while a geological mapping provided a detailed cleft structure of the location.Water flowing in the tunnel comes predominantly from clefts as the Wetterstein limestone exhibits very low porosity and permeability. Over the complete time of investigation, two repeating phases can be clearly distinguished. (i) Snowmelt from April to July provides the highest discharge rates, up to 800 l/d. These measures are well in agreement with the hourly melting rates obtained by the model Snowpack (SLF). Saturation of bedrock and clefts is at its maximum during this period and temperatures are constantly around 0°C, so that water-ice processes are expected to dominate slope stability. (ii) Rainfall events, normally present only from June to September, deliver smaller quantities of water since they mainly have high intensity but short duration. Nevertheless, due to a clear separation between events, it is possible to detect water flow continuing several days after the end of the rainfall, a clear evidence of water accumulation.Although direct measure of hydrostatic pressures in single clefts remains an open challenge, this benchmark study provides measures on fluid flow and quantitative estimate on water accumulation leading to hydrostatic pressure in bedrock permafrost. Improving the knowledge of slope internal thermal-hydrological dynamics in periglacial environments can help understanding disastrous slope failures.
Numerical simulation provides conditions for interpreting the groundwater response to Earth tides
Authors: Bastias Jose , Rau Gabriel , Blum Philipp
Published: February 2023

Earth tides exert small gravitational variations in the subsurface which lead to pore pressure changes and water level fluctuations in groundwater monitoring wells. This groundwater response to Earth tides has been used to estimate subsurface hydraulic and geomechanical properties. However, existing approaches are based on simplifying assumptions and their reliability has not been tested for realistic conditions. To simulate how Earth tides affect the subsurface, we developed and verified a numerical model that couples hydraulic and geomechanical theories. We modelled the response of a semi-confined aquifer which exchange water with an observation well for the dominant M2 Earth tide component. We reveal that undrained (i.e., groundwater does not flow in response to stress) and confined (i.e., groundwater is under pressure) conditions are necessary for the analytical solution to be valid. For the M2 frequency we assess that this occurs at depths ≤ 50 m and requires specific storage at constant strain sε ≥ 10-6 m-1, hydraulic conductivity of the aquitard kl ≤ 5 • 10-5 ms-1 and aquifer kl ≥ 1 • 10-4 ms-1, respectively. Further, we illustrate that established analytical solutions are valid in unconsolidated systems, whereas consolidated systems require additional consideration of the compressibility ratio between the porous medium and the porous skeleton (i.e., inclusion of the Biot coefficient). Overall, we find that a priori knowledge of the subsurface system increases the reliability of the groundwater response interpretation. Our results improve understanding of the effect of Earth tides on groundwater systems and provide a framework for evaluating subsurface properties.
Impacts of AMOC slowdown on European circulation patterns
Authors: Vacca Andrea Vito , Bellomo Katinka , von Hardenberg Jost
Published: February 2023

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a vital component of the global climate system regulating heat, carbon, and freshwater distribution. Most models predict a weakening of the AMOC throughout the 21st century, although there is significant uncertainty about its magnitude and the related regional climate impacts. In particular, the response of large-scale atmospheric circulation to the AMOC slowdown is still largely unknown, with implications for weather extremes and associated societal risks. The purpose of this study is to enhance our understanding of the impacts of an AMOC slowdown on atmospheric patterns with a focus on the Euro-Atlantic region, where the influence of AMOC is particularly relevant.We analyse changes in an ensemble of idealised abrupt-4xCO2 climate model simulations from the CMIP archives with respect to the preindustrial climate. We split the models into groups according to their AMOC response to the 4xCO2. Through rigorous statistical testing, we attribute the differences in the simulated climate impacts to the difference in the AMOC response. Specifically, we find that models that simulate a larger AMOC decline feature minimum warming in the subpolar North Atlantic (North Atlantic Warming Hole or NAWH), a southward shift of the ITCZ, and a poleward strengthening of the mid-latitude jet stream. Instead, models that simulate a smaller AMOC decline feature enhanced North Atlantic warming, an intensification of the hydrological cycle but no southward shift in the ITCZ, and smaller displacements of the mid-latitude jet.  To better characterize the large-scale atmospheric response at daily timescales, we use k-means clustering and self-organising maps to assess the changes in weather regimes over the Euro-Atlanic sector, including the NAO.  We further compare weather regimes’ frequency of occurrence and persistence between the two groups, attributing the differences to the AMOC decline. Our results indicate that the AMOC is a key source of large inter-model uncertainty in the simulation of future climate change impacts. Further observational campaigns may thus help us alleviate model biases and provide constraints on a number of societally relevant climate change impacts.
Towards sustainable road transport infrastructure: Insights from GPR performance indicator development and enhancement of data quality
Authors: Rasol Mezgeen
Published: February 2023

The wide use of the NDT technologies and the big database are produced, transmitted, collected, processed needs to be managed and well-presented towards monitoring of road transports. Using Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) as one of the most efficient non-destructive tests in road transport monitoring.  Such database outcomes produced through on-site monitoring approaches are essential for providing the most reasonable decision-making tools to support best engineering judgment on-site. In addition to that the accuracy and precision of such decision-making tools are highly dependent on the data quality generated from different GPR images. Establishing performance indictor could avoid errors in dataset and unfavorable decisions in pavement management system. Consequently, GPR data management and transforming to local indicators is crucial to increase quality control of the dataset. This is still an ongoing challenging task for GPR support-knowledge.  Establishing indicators are based on different criteria including intuitive outcomes, empirical outputs, and analytical results. Different GPR signal parameters can be correlated to the subsurface material changes and deterioration such as electromagnetic wave velocity, amplitude, centre frequency and signal attenuation to some local indicators. This can be under the category of the current challenges, the question is as follows, How GPR data can be converted to indicators based on the common defects in road transports. Therefore, establishing potential metrics to value GPR-related indicators in both a qualitative and quantitative approaches is crucial to provide better understanding of the defects and their propagation in road pavements.
Hydrological driver for leptospiroses abundance in a small tropical catchment ? Example from the New Caledonian leptospirosis hot-spot
Authors: Genthon Pierre , Thibeaux Roman , Selmaoui-Folcher Nazha , Tramier Caroline , Kainiu Malia , Soupé-Gilbert Marie-Estelle , Wijesuriya Kavya , Goarant Cyrille
Published: February 2023

Leptospirosis is a zoonosis caused by pathogenic Leptospira shed in the urine of mammals, able to survive in water and soils and remobilized during rainy events. Pathogenic Leptospira (PL) concentrations were measured together with hydrological variables in the upper Thiem river, near the Touho village, a hot spot for leptospirosis in the main island of New Caledonia (a small tropical island itself a hot spot for leptospirosis). Two hundred twenty-six water samples were collected at the outlet of as 3 km2 sub-watershed, which is frequented by invasive mammals (rodents, deer and wild pigs) known to be animal reservoirs for leptospirosis. The main features of our results highlight that (i) samples collected at the beginning of a rain event occurring after a dry period may contain high PL concentrations (ii) PL concentrations at the heart of a wet period exhibit significant correlation with rainfall, water level and suspended matter concentration (SMC) (iii) elevated PL concentration may be observed a few days after the main flood event and within weakly turbid waters, (iV) the largest PL concentrations were observed in the middle and at the end of a wet rain season. Comparison of PL concentrations with hydrological data (rainfall, water level, SMC, soil moisture) reveals that they cannot be explained by a linear combination of hydrological variables. Indeed, nonlinear machine learning models provided a fair fit to observed data (99% of explained variance on their decimal logarithm and a mean ratio of 2.5 between raw observed data and modeled values). Comparison of identical machine learning models of water levels, SMC and PL concentration shows that the remaining error in PL concentration data does not only result from the limited dataset but rather from the intrinsic characteristics of the Leptospira signal. Our results may help to refine recommendations for leptospirosis control towards local populations. Further studies in larger watersheds draining in more populated areas will be conducted to confirm and extend these findings
Late Ediacaran crustal thickening in Egypt: Geochemical and isotopic constraints from post-collisional volcanism in southern Sinai, Egypt
Authors: Azer Mokhles , Asimow Paul , Price Jason , Ibañez-Mejia Mauricio
Published: February 2023

A number of Late Ediacaran post-collisional volcanic sequences are exposed in southern Sinai, which represents the extreme northern tip of the Arabian-Nubian Shield (ANS). To clarify the age and geochemical characteristics of such volcanism, two localities were selected for the present study: the Meknas and Iqna Shar’a volcanics. These undeformed and unmetamorphosed sequences include intermediate to felsic subaerial lava flows, tuffs and ignimbrites accompanied by deposition of immature clastic sediments. New SIMS U-Pb dating of zircons from two samples of the Meknas lava flows yielded ages of 593 ± 12 and 616 ± 1 Ma, while zircons from three samples of the Iqna Shar’a volcanics yielded ages of 600 ± 6, 616 ± 4, and 617 ± 6 Ma. Combined with field evidence, the zircon ages enable us to recognize two phases of post-collisional volcanic activity in southern Sinai, at 592-600 Ma and 616-617 Ma. Geochemically, the volcanic rocks of the two successions display large silica variations and are mostly medium- to high-K calc-alkaline rocks. The lower units of the earlier phase consist of andesite and dacite, whereas the upper units of the later phase are more evolved, rhyodacite to rhyolite. The evolved rhyolites of the second phase have characteristics that are transitional to alkaline A-type magmas, but this is attributed to extensive fractionation and does not require a change in the tectonic regime. Geochemically, the Meknas and Iqna Shar’a volcanics are enriched in most LILE and depleted in most HFSE. Moreover, they are generally enriched in LREE relative to HREE and characterized by moderate degrees of REE fractionation [(La/Yb)N = 7.0-12.8)]. They evolved from high-K calc-alkaline magmas that were generated in a post-collisional regime. Despite the temporal gap, it appears that all lavas in each locality are cogenetic and formed via fractional crystallization from a common parental melt. Although they erupted in a post-collisional setting, both volcanic suites display geochemical fingerprints of subduction influence, interpreted to reflect remelting of previously formed arc material ca. 750-650 Ma in age. These magmas were derived from the mafic lower crust, which likely melted due to lithospheric delamination. This is consistent with the Hf isotope ratios of their zircons, which consistently yield positive Hf(t) values (+3.2 ±1.5 and +4.3 ± 1.7, from Iqna Shar’a; +2.6 ± 2.3 and +5.3 ± 1.7 from Meknas). The 50-150 Ma time span between emplacement of this lower crust and its remelting was insufficient for its Hf isotope ratio to evolve to negative values considered representative of an ancient crustal source. Contamination by upper continental crust and fractional crystallization were responsible for the variation observed within the studied volcanic suites.
Evaluating the Effects of A Five-year Irrigation Experiment on Soil Quality and Crop Yield using Soil Quality Indexes
Authors: Quan Hao , Wu Lihong , Feng Hao , Zhang Tibin , Siddique Kadambot H.M.
Published: February 2023

Soil quality on irrigated farmland is declining due to intensive agricultural activities and inappropriate agricultural inputs. This study aimed to analyze the effects of agricultural inputs (fertilizer and irrigation input) on soil quality and quantify the relationship between soil quality and resource use and yield formation under two irrigation patterns [border irrigation (BI) and drip irrigation (DI)] in the Hetao Irrigation District of China. We identified nine soil indexes [clay, sand, bulk density, pH, soil organic matter (SOM), electrical conductivity of saturated extract, structural stability index (SSI), soil water content, NH4+-N] as the minimum dataset (MDS) in topsoil (0–30 cm) and subsoil (30–60 cm). The results showed that the soil quality indicator (SQI) calculated using multi-linear regression (SQI-M) qualified the relationship between soil quality and crop yield better than the SQI calculated using factor analysis (SQI-F), especially for subsoil. The variation in soil quality was related to soil depth, with the SQIs in topsoil decreasing and subsoil increasing with increasing soil depth. The SQI variation was due to decreased SOM and SSI in topsoil and increased sand content in subsoil. The ANOVA and linear mixed-effects model (LMM) had high predictive performance, the LMM method quantified management, environment and SQIs factors to accurately estimate yield. In addition, the reduction in soil quality decreased the crop water and fertilizer use capacities and soil carbon sequestration capacity. Our study provides a quantitative tool for assessing soil quality in farmland and develops an LMM model to estimate yield considering soul quality. Overall, our findings suggest that continuous irrigation agricultural practices decrease soil quality, limit crop resource use and yield formation, and decrease agricultural sustainability.
Using the PS-InSAR technique based on amplitude time series analysis for late-appearing persistent targets in potential sliding areas
Authors: Lin Yu-Ching , Wang Che-Ming , Tsai Ming-Da , Lin Shih-Yuan , Lee Ching-Fang
Published: February 2023

Potential large-scale landslides and earth-rock flow potential streams are located in remote mountainous areas, most of which overlap with aboriginal tribes. Since the Morakot typhoon disaster, the government has invested many resources in the potential soil and sand disasters. However, the number of such potential areas is too large to fully cover and monitor. After the Wulai District of New Taipei City, Taiwan, was severely damaged by the Sudil typhoon disaster in 2015, many significant landslides happened, and the Central Geological Survey, Taiwan, announced a total of 17 potential large-scale landslides. The area of potentially large-scale landslides in Xiluoan is the largest, about 6.5 km2, and covers the central residential area of the Wulai tribe. MT-InSAR (Multi-temporal Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar) is a powerful remote sensing technique for ground movement detection. The most popular method is the Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PS-InSAR) in early 2000. The concept of PS-InSAR is to look for steady, point-like scatterers whose phases are consistent across entire time series SAR data. However, for those scatters are considered temporary targets or late-appearing persistent targets during an entire period; they are often ignored and not estimated. In order to overcome such limitation, an amplitude On-Off model, which uses a rectangular function to estimate temporary targets, was applied to the amplitude time series. Then, we used the On-Off model result as a weight in the InSAR time series processing frames. Two rectangular corner reflectors (CRs) were placed in the Wulai sites, potentially large landslide areas. 83 Sentinel-1 SLC ascending images acquired from Jan 2020 to Dec 2022 were used to estimate ground movement. It is evident that with the weight based on the amplitude on-off model, the late-appearing persistent targets are successfully identified. For example, the two CR locations can be readily found, and the velocity of the movement can be estimated. The amplitude of the pixel at the CR locations becomes significantly strong and stable after the date of setting up the CR targets. One CR covers a period of 20 images; the other covers a period of 31 images. The movement of one CR reveals an ongoing sliding trend. Such estimation is consistent with those typical PS targets located at the same slope sliding area.
Exploring disaster risk management pathways in complex, multi-risk systems using DAPP-MR
Authors: Schlumberger Julius , Haasnoot Marjolijn , Aerts Jeroen , de Ruiter Marleen
Published: February 2023

Climate change and socioeconomic developments are driving risks from natural hazards and thus determine the effectiveness and efficiency for disaster risk management strategies. With DAPP-MR, an approach to apply a decision-focused lens, and a longer-term planning perspective in multi-risk systems has been recently developed. DAPP-MR  guides the exploration of disaster risk management pathways under uncertainty while explicitly accounting for trade-offs and synergies of policy measures across (interconnected) sectors, hazards, and time.This work provides a first insight into the utility of the DAPP-MR framework to support disaster risk management decision making in the complex context of multi-hazard, multi-stakeholder settings. We used an integrated impact assessment modelling environment to assess (multi-)hazard impacts in a synthetic river basin, capturing interests and dynamics of three sectors (agriculture, inland shipping, residential housing) exposed to interacting flood and drought-hazards. We showcase (interactive) methods and metrics for the analysis and evaluation of potential risk management pathways. They were selected to deal with the increasingly multi-objective set-up in multi-risk systems  explicitly capturing and explore effects from integrating measures directed towards different hazards and sectors.
Hydrological characteristics of Sutri Dhaka glacier catchment in the western Himalaya
Authors: Laha Sourav , Sharma Parmanand , Oulkar Sunil N. , Patel Lavkush , Pratap Bhanu , Thamban Meloth
Published: February 2023

The Himalaya is a massive cryospheric reserve, which provides a significant amount of fresh water to major Asian rivers like the Indus, Ganges, Brahmaputra, etc. Climate-induced cryospheric change is one of the major worldwide concerns, particularly in the Himalaya. Meltwater from glaciers and snow stabilises the downstream river runoff, and it buffers against drought during the driest years to some extent. The hydrological impact due to climate change in the high Himalayan catchments is potentially amplified by the shrinkage of snow and ice reserves. Therefore, it is important to analyse the potential hydrological changes at catchment to regional scales in the Himalaya. Hydrological changes at the regional scale are mainly determined by glacier catchment scale hydrology. Presently, understanding the regional scale discharge in the Himalaya suffers from large uncertainties, and one major source is the lack of glacier catchment scale hydrological understanding. Motivated by the above, here we are studying the glacio-hydrological characteristics of the Sutri Dhaka Glacier (debris-free glacier) catchment, which is located in the Chandra basin, western Himalaya. The glacierised area is ~20 km2, and the total catchment area is ~45 km2.To the glacier catchment, we are applying an hourly timescale glacio-hydrological model to simulate discharge and the corresponding hydrograph components from 1980 to 2022. We also obtained extensive long-term field measurements of glacier mass balance, meteorological parameters, and discharge for the ablation season of 2016 to 2022 (with some gaps). These field data are used to calibrate the model parameters using a Bayesian framework and validate the simulated discharge and glacier mass balance. The simulated discharge variability from the diurnal to inter-annual time scale matches with the observations with reasonable accuracy (R2>0.75). Also, the model is able to capture the strong seasonality of the diurnal discharge amplitude, which has a direct relation to the storage-release properties of the glacier. Particularly, the diurnal discharge variability from the Himalayan glacier catchment is not well explored in the literature. We have also computed the associated uncertainties in the model as we as in the observations. Our present analysis will help to improve the existing process-based understanding of the glacier catchment scale discharge from the glacierised Himalayan region.