bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Corporate Takeovers And Interest Rates
Authors: Kini Omesh , Kracaw William , McConnell John J.
Published: February 2016

This study analyzes the effect of corporate takeover announcements on the volatility of interest rate changes and on the level of interest rates over the period 1962 through 1984. The findings suggest that intercorporate takeovers increase the volatility of interest rate changes over this period. Because the increase in volatility is concentrated around the announcement of cash takeovers, the results imply that it is the mode of financing, rather than takeovers, per se, that is important of credit markets.
Aging And Health In South Dakota: Who Will Provide Care?
Authors: Duin Diane K. , Dykstra DeVee
Published: February 2016

Demographers have long been writing of an aging population.  The forthcoming demographic changes predicted include the doubling of the elderly in selected states between 1995 and 2025, and the possibility that the numbers of people over age 85 is expected to reach at least 27 million by 2050.  These changes in the population will have a major impact on many sectors of the United States economy, including health care.  The effect on health care will include changes in technology to provide needed services to the elderly, access to medications by the elderly, overall service provision to the elderly by health care organizations, as well as reimbursement for services to the elderly.  The most dramatic affect on health care is still a couple of decades away.  As a result of the demographic trends there will be an insufficient supply of health care workers, while at the same time an increase in the health care needs of the elderly.  In South Dakota the working population, those 16 to 64 years of age, is experiencing significant changes.  The 16 to 44 year old segment of the population has declined by 10.4%.  The 45 to 64 year old segment has increased by 23.5%.  These changes in the South Dakota demographics indicate that the working population is aging, while the numbers of individuals available to replace them in the work force (the replacement group) is declining.   The data provides an indication that there will be more elderly consuming greater amounts of health care resources and fewer health care professionals, specifically nurses, in South Dakota to provide health care for the elderly.   
Assessment And Intervention Using The Perspective Of Four Organizational Frames
Authors: Grace Dean , Korach Rebecca , Riordan Kim , Storm Kim
Published: February 2016

Effective leaders must possess a sophisticated understanding of their multifaceted organizations. This includes an understanding of the organization from several perspectives. The purpose of this paper is to explore the use of reframing, the perspective that organizations can be viewed from more than one angle (Bolman & Deal, 2003). Included in this paper are descriptions of the four perspectives along with short case studies intended to illustrate the four frames from the standpoint of assessment and intervention. This paper is intended as a resource to persons responsible for leadership at the middle level ranks in their respective organizations. Prior to reading this paper the authors suggest you complete and score the survey (see Appendix A for survey).
Unique Brand Extension Challenges For Luxury Brands
Authors: Stegemann Nicole
Published: February 2016

This article addresses the impact of brand extensions on the brand equity of luxury brands.  A review of the developments in the luxury market has shown significant changes in demand and supply sides.  The luxury market has been growing rapidly over the last 20 years, and luxury brands, formerly reserved for a small group of privileged individuals, are now available to more consumers.  Meanwhile, luxury goods manufacturers have been applying new marketing strategies, and extending their brands without any insights as to the consequences for their brands.  Despite these changes, little research has investigated the luxury market.  Therefore, a systematic review has been undertaken regarding the nature of luxury brands and research measuring individual luxury brand equity elements such as attitudes and perceptions.  Deviating results in the application of concepts for non-luxury brands to luxury brands have been found due to the abstract and emotional nature of luxury brands.  These results support the development of distinct brand equity constructs for luxury brands.  The main focus of this article is the impact of luxury brand extensions on the parent brand’s equity and the proposal of a framework to allow the impact to be measured.
Forensic Accountants: Financial Investigators
Authors: Nunn Les , McGuire Brian L. , Whitcomb Carrie , Jost Eric
Published: February 2016

The public fraud scandals with companies like Enron and WorldCom, the Internet and other technological advances, and even the threat of terrorists have created a large demand for the skills and services provided by forensic accountants.  Forensic accountants are in high demand because they play a critical role in an investigation of suspected financial scandals and misappropriation of assets.  It is their job to bring independence and credibility to these investigations.
Examining A Decade Of Named Marketing Chairs In The United States
Authors: Kamath Ravindra R. , Meier Heidi Hylton , Rao S. R.
Published: February 2016

Named chairs in the academic field of marketing are examined for ten years providing time series and cross-sectional analysis to determine a profile of their personal characteristics and their schools.
Wage Differentials Between The Public And The Private Sector: How Comparable Are The Workers?
Authors: Ramoni-Perazzi Josefa , Bellante Don
Published: February 2016

This paper’s purpose is to examine the importance of controlling for the comparability of the units in a sample when examining wage differentials of various types. We use U.S. CPS data for the period 1992-2000 to compare estimated wage differentials between public and private sector workers obtained using two different methodologies: Lee’s two-step method that controls for the selection bias resulting from the non-randomness of the sample, and the propensity score matching method that controls also for the comparability of the workers. Lee’s method suggests that federal workers are paid a premium, while state and local workers are underpaid compared to private sector workers. However the matching method indicates that this data is too heterogeneous to be used to compare wages across sectors. We conclude that, when the outcome under study is not only affected by some sort of selection but also requires comparable groups, the traditional methodology may not be enough.
The Effects Of An Incentive Program Intervention On Driver Performance In A Private Nonprofit Agency
Authors: Beaudry Angela , Schepman Stephen , Gunn Gerald , Lettic Stephen , Neibusch Richard
Published: February 2016

The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of an incentive program on driver performance.  Archival absenteeism, complaint, and at-fault accident data were collected around an incentive program.  Results of the study showed partial support of the hypothesis that the incentive program would result in increased driver performance.  Limitations of the study and organizational recommendations are presented.
Financial Metrics In Wide-Moat Firms
Authors: Boyd David P. , Quinn Robert C.
Published: February 2016

According to Morningstar companies with certain structural characteristics enjoy economic moats. Compared to benchmark indices, Morningstar hypothesizes that over a ten-year time frame these firms will evidence superior price appreciation. Based on analysis of 1360 companies, this study supports the thesis of historical performance among wide-moat firms.
Managerial Investment And Firm Value: Statistical Investigation Of Their Relationship
Authors: Maniatis Paraschos , Gioulbaxiotis Nicolas
Published: February 2016

In the modern neoclassical microeconomic theory, as it is build on Walrasian, Hicksian, and partly- and eclectically- on Marshallian lines, the firm does not exist but as a necessary entity in the framework of the prices formation. No evidence and explanation is given on the creation and functioning of the firm and the changes in the firm structure. In this study we shall try to outline the way that the prevailing microeconomic theory faces the firm. Then we shall present some alternative/complementary considerations on the nature of the management of the firm, pertaining to the ownership and control relations in the firm, namely in what measure the managers in the modern large corporation act for themselves and not to the interest of the shareholders. A statistical investigation follows, referring to the measure in which these alternative theories are supported by available statistical evidence.   
Determining The Factors Affecting Demand For Branded Beef: Applying A Logit Model To 2004 Neilson Home-Scan Data
Authors: Martinez Steve , Hanagriff Roger , Lau Michael , Harris Michael
Published: February 2016

This paper finds that branded fresh beef expenditures increased from 20.8 percent in 1998 to 28.6 percent in 2004 for all fresh beef expenditures.  In addition, geographic location, household income, household race, and household size were found to affect the likelihood of branded fresh beef purchases in 2004.
The Inequity In The Current Tax System: Does The Alternative Minimum Tax Create Additional Problems In The System?
Authors: Crawford Constance J. , Crawford Corinne L.
Published: February 2016

Historically, the Alternative Minimum Tax was enacted to correct the inadequacies and deficiencies in the IRS tax code.  Today it creates unfairness.  The AMT is complex and has been recognized as the most serious problem faced by taxpayers.  Could this be a consequence of bi-partisan neglect?  The amount of AMT victims may double in 2006 as tax cut solutions expire.  AMT will become the de-facto tax liability for the middle income taxpayer.  AMT was not instituted for revenue generating purposes, but rather as a symbolic gesture denoting fairness.  Unfortunately, it has created a social injustice for the working middle class. 
No More Scandals: A Simple Model For Valuing Employee Stock Options
Authors: Finch J. Howard , Rue Joseph C. , Volkan Ara G.
Published: February 2016

The escalating size of compensation packages to senior managers and investor disillusionment have resulted in growing calls for the expensing of employee stock options (ESO).  While initially slow to respond, the FASB has now mandated the expensing of ESO.  The two primary methods used to value ESO, the Black-Scholes closed form equation and the lattice model, suffer from several deficiencies  .A Simple model for valuing ESO that marks the option expense to market in succeeding financial statement dates and allows for the staggered exercise dates of option holders is available. The model is easy to understand, would have a low cost of implementation, and offers a superior estimate of the true cash flow effects associated with the opportunity cost to shareholders of ESO exercise.
Engagement Risk: Perceptions And Strategies From Audit Partners
Authors: Ethridge Jack R. , Marsh Treba , Revelt Bonnie
Published: February 2016

The audit function creates several important relationships among the various parties.  One of the significant and potentially problematic relationships is between the audit firm and the audit client.  The decision by the audit firm to accept or retain a client is crucial because of the potential risk of being associated with certain clients. The potential damage can range from financial loss and/or loss of prestige to the ultimate demise of the audit firm.  Engagement risk is considered to be composed of three components: entity’s business risk, audit risk, and auditor’s business risk. This research questioned whether audit firms have significantly changed their views regarding engagement risk and how they evaluate and manage this risk.  An analysis of the surveys revealed that 83% of the respondents believed their views regarding the importance of engagement risk have changed, but only to a moderate degree.  In evaluating engagement risk, audit partners considered management integrity in general, management integrity toward fraud, and the presence of the elements of the fraud triangle to be the most important factors. Assignment of more experienced audit staff and increased substantive tests of account balances were the most frequently used mitigating strategies.  Based upon these results, which were consistent with our previous study, it appears there have not been significant changes in audit partners’ views regarding the importance of the client acceptance/retention decision.   
Financial Services Shopping Preferences: A Comparison Of African American And White Households
Authors: Stevenson Thomas H. , Plath D. Anthony
Published: February 2016

The purpose of this study is to generate information for financial services marketers who are seeking to reach and provide more effective service to the growing African American segment. This information is needed because research has shown that the shopping behavior of African American consumers differs from that of their white counterparts in terms of information gathering and patronage patterns.  Therefore, different marketing communications techniques may be needed to reach these people. Nevertheless, there has been a paucity of contemporary empirical studies of how shopping behaviors manifest themselves with regard to the purchase of financial services. This paper uses the Federal Reserve System's most recent Survey of Consumer Finances to analyze differences between black and white household financial services shoppers.  Findings indicate that there are similarities and differences in the ways that blacks and whites seek to access the offerings of this industry.  Suggestions are offered to financial services marketers based on these findings.
A Longitudinal Study Of Generic Alcohol And Tobacco Cues In Daytime Soap Opera Programs: Fall, 1986, 1991, And 2001
Authors: Diener Betty J.
Published: February 2016

A longitudinal study was conducted to determine the frequency and context of generic alcohol and tobacco cues in daytime television soap opera programs broadcast in fall, 1986, 1991, and 2001.  A content analysis of these programs showed that alcohol cues occurred significantly more frequently than tobacco cues.  The alcohol cues occurred with significantly increasing frequency in 1991 vs. 1986, and then again in 2001 vs. 1991.  Although the alcohol cues were generic (unbranded), in “appropriate” settings, and neither actively consumed nor directly related to storylines, their significantly increasing use could still be of concern.
A Comparison Of Perceptions: Students And Bankruptcy Filers On Causes Of Financial Distress
Authors: Bland Eugene M. , DeMagalhaes J. Roberto A. , Stokes Pamela P.
Published: February 2016

This study compares opinions about the causes of bankruptcy held by students at Texas A&M University –Corpus Christi with those of individuals who have filed for Chapter 13 bankruptcy. Personal bankruptcy affects many Americans and is the source of much controversy. This study should be helpful to creditors, who need to avoid losses from unpaid debts, educators who must be aware of students’ perceptions and misperceptions to effectively teach financial management, and legislators who pass laws on bankruptcy and related topics. Attorneys, accountants, and other financial advisors also need to be aware of signals of financial trouble in their clients.
Analyzing Risks And Returns In Emerging Equity Markets
Authors: Went Peter
Published: February 2016

This study applies an operations research technique, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) on emerging equity market returns.  Sharpe and Treynor measures focus only one risk aspect of portfolio return and in reality investors consider several alternative risk measures outside the traditional mean-variance framework.  DEA is a multivariate approach that can incorporate multiple risk characteristics that may be equally important for the investor’s decision to allocate assets to emerging markets, the risk and performance relationships are explored in a multivariate framework.
NASCAR Sponsorship And Shareholder Return: Some Preliminary Results
Authors: Huth William L.
Published: February 2016

NASCAR sponsorship is a major investment for corporations that choose it as a marketing communication tool. Companies frequently spend in excess of $10 million to sponsor a car in the Nextel Cup series. This paper develops a return on investment measure for that spending using the financial market event study methodology where race day performance influence on publicly traded sponsoring firm’s stock returns is examined. Results for the 2005 NASCAR Nextel Cup season suggest that sponsorship of top 5 finishing cars generates significant positive returns for the sponsoring company shareholders.
A Note On Accounting For Employee Stock Options When Reporting Diluted Earnings Per Share Under The Treasury Stock Method
Authors: Doran David T.
Published: February 2016

Firms must currently apply the fair value method in determining the amount of employee compensation incurred in the case of employee stock options.  Current GAAP also requires that for purposes of calculating diluted earnings per share (EPS), the treasury stock method be applied where the assumed proceeds from exercise of the optioned shares is used to purchase shares of the firm’s stock at its average market price of the earnings period.  These incremental shares increase the denominator for purposes of calculating diluted EPS.  These requirements are consistent across the pronouncements of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) and the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB).  This study extends the work of Doran (2005) and Doran (2008).  These previous studies found that applying the treasury stock method where shares are assumed purchased at the average for the period price (instead of end of year price) understates the number of incremental shares (the denominator), which overstates diluted EPS.  However, these previous works assumed that no shares were actually purchased for the treasury during the earnings period.  The FASB indicates one reason that the average for the period price is appropriate is because if treasury shares purchases were to occur, “the shares would be purchased at various prices, not at the price at the end of the period.”  This study tests the notion that the average for the period price is appropriate under circumstances where the firm actually purchases shares for the treasury at its average market price during the earnings period.  This paper employs a simple one period model that assumes a risk free environment with complete certainty.  The model allows comparison of computed EPS with an a priori known, correct amount.  Consistent with Doran (2005) and Doran (2008), the results here again indicate that assuming purchase of treasury shares at their average market price of the earnings period understates the EPS denominator which results in EPS overstatement.  Correct diluted EPS is derived when the shares assumed purchased under the treasury stock method are acquired at the higher period ending market price. 
The Effect Of Self-Efficacy And Adaptability On Salesperson Orientation And Customer Orientation And On Job Performance And Customer Satisfaction
Authors: Feinberg Martin , Kennedy Jeffrey
Published: February 2016

The importance of the effect of self-efficacy and adaptability on salesperson orientation and customer satisfaction (SOCO) and on job performance and customer satisfaction is an issue of major importance.  As an application of this issue, the relationships among self-efficacy and adaptability involved with telemarketing customers is utilized.  Self-efficacy is operationalized as the extent to which telemarketers feel confident about their job skills and abilities.  Employee Adaptability is operationalized as the ability of telemarketers to adjust their behavior on the job. The measure is adapted from the 16-item adaptive selling scale.  Job Performance is operationalized as the number of applications filed by the salesperson, the dollar amount of premiums, and the service quality. Customer Satisfaction is operationalized as a post choice evaluative judgment concerning a specific purchase selection. The justifications for eight hypotheses are provided.
Measuring Productivity: Issues Arising From Outsourcing And Merger Activities
Authors: Marshall Mercedes , Hergeth Helmut
Published: February 2016

The paper discusses productivity measurement issues as companies engage in outsourcing and merger activities, and links productivity measures to competitiveness. Need for new productivity approaches is presented.
Validity Of Scoring Methods In The Presence Of Outliers
Authors: Uhde Nicole
Published: February 2016

Rankings enjoy growing popularity in the economical sciences. Well known institutions like the World Economic Forum, Heritage Foundation and the OECD make use of rankings to exert competitive pressure on the ranked countries. To achieve any such desired effects rankings need to be accepted and approved as a whole, and in particular regarding the applied methodology. In order to appeal to wide sections of the population scoring methods are applied to aggregate a composite indicator. Experience has shown that outliers have a distorting effect on the ranking order and therefore cause economically implausible results which are a target for criticism. For these reasons the choice of an adequate scoring method is of great importance. The applied technique should provide a feature which enables it to mitigate the distorting effect of outliers without the necessity for an arbitrarily elimination of data points. Although scoring methods have a high influence on ranking results, scientific analysis is often more concerned with the optimal choice of indicators or the weighting scheme, whereas the impact of extreme values is not addressed. According to this, the present research is related to the question which scoring method is the best choice in the presence of outliers. Evidence is given, that Logistic Function Methods have the ability to mitigate outlier distortion effects. The analysis approaches the issue considering two aspects: It combines the theoretically derivation of scoring methods’ statistic strengths and weaknesses for the ranking process and highlights the bootstrap technique to assess the validity of score results in the presence of outliers.
The Implications Of Accounting Conservatism For The Relation Between Earnings And Stock Returns
Authors: Pae Jinhan
Published: February 2016

Characterizing accounting conservatism as the accountants’ tendency to require a higher degree of verification for recognizing good news than bad news, Basu (1997) predicts that the slope coefficient and R2 in a regression of earnings on concurrent stock returns will be higher for bad news (negative stock returns) than for good news (positive stock returns). However, standard econometric analysis indicates that the R2 is a function of the sensitivity of earnings to returns and the noise ratio, which is defined as the ratio of the variance of noise in earnings to the variance of noise in returns. I show that the R2 from the regression of earnings on stock returns is not necessarily higher for bad news than for good news. So the test of R2 is not a robust test of accounting conservatism. Consistent with the prediction, I find that the slope coefficient is higher for bad news firms reporting losses than for good news firms reporting profits, but R2 is lower for bad news firms reporting losses than for good news firms reporting profits.
Does Graph Design Matter To CPAs And Financial Statement Readers?
Authors: Burgess Deanna Oxender , Dilla William N. , Steinbart Paul John , Shank Todd M.
Published: February 2016

We asked CPAs and financial statement readers if they believe distorted graphs influence judgments and if they think there is a need for standards governing their presentation and attestation in annual reports. We consider these important questions because decades of studies document that distorted graphs commonly appear in annual reports even though there is considerable evidence that such graphs influence readers’ judgments.  Our results show that professionals are aware of the potential influence of graphical distortion, believe that standards are needed to assist in preparing graphs of financial information to be included in annual reports, and agree that auditors should be required to provide assurance about the accuracy of such graphs.
The Influence Of Criminal Justice Professors On Narco-Terrorism Policies
Authors: Cleveland Craig S. , Honeycutt Andrew
Published: February 2016

The purpose of the study was to determine the impact of leadership and managerial decision making within the Drug Enforcement Administration since September 11, 2001.  A web based survey questionnaire was used to collect the data.  Participants in the study were criminal justice professors from randomly selected colleges and universities located in the southeast and southwest region of the United States.  Qualitative and quantitative research methods were used. Each participant was asked to complete a post survey that addressed areas of leadership and decision-making based on opinions and knowledge related to criminal justice.  Paired samples t test was used to describe the data. In spite of the survey findings of change in knowledge, skills, and cultural behavior, these changes did not appear to lead to significant differences in determining leadership skills.  It is recommended that future studies use a survey sample instrument designed to measure attitudinal dimensions of decision-making among leaders and managers within the Drug Enforcement Administration.  One possible recommendation is to utilize a different type of comparison method or instrument that would measure certain dimensions of managerial levels between upper and lower management.
Estimating The Economic Impact Of Local Cultural Organizations: The Charlotte Arts & Science Council Example
Authors: Connaughton John E. , Madsen Ronald A. , McGregor Rob Roy
Published: February 2016

This paper details the impact of the 58 affiliated members of the Charlotte Arts & Science Council on the economy of Mecklenburg County, North Carolina. We find that the affiliated members of the Arts & Science Council had a sizable impact on the Mecklenburg economy.  Output was expanded by $129,171,622; earnings were increased by $50,589,999; and employment was increased by 2,132 full-time equivalent jobs.  These economic impacts were an important addition to the rich and varied cultural offerings provided by the Arts & Science Council affiliates.
Transforming Urban Public Transportation: A Lean Enterprise Approach
Authors: Mathaisel Dennis F.X. , Hirsch Scott A. , Comm Clare L.
Published: February 2016

Much urban mass transportation is perceived as providing second-rate service, existing for the disenfranchised, and possibly not being safe.  Once, mass transit recognized and filled a need in major urban areas for efficient intra-city transportation, but people’s needs have changed.  The goal of this paper is to characterize the current state of urban mass transportation and develop a practical multi-disciplinary business-oriented approach to reenergize transit and to form the type of mass appeal that cars and passenger airlines have.  Based on a Lean Enterprise Architecture for transforming the public sector, and using global examples, the authors propose a plan of action to improve and change the image of urban mass transportation.
Effects Of Manager Qualification On Firm Value
Authors: Rakhmayil Sergiy , Yuce Ayse
Published: February 2016

This paper examines how CEO and CFO qualifications affect firm value. Our results indicate that companies with managers that have qualifications as prior senior managerial experience of CEOs, tenure of CEOs in the current position, MBA degrees of CFOs, and the university where the CFOs graduated are associated with higher company valuation, after controlling for firm age and industry effects.
Measures Of Investor Sentiment: A Comparative Analysis Put-Call Ratio Vs. Volatility Index
Authors: Bandopadhyaya Arindam , Jones Anne Leah
Published: February 2016

Traditional research on asset pricing has focused on firm-specific and economy-wide factors that affect asset prices.  Recently, the finance literature has turned to non-economic factors, such as investor sentiment, as possible determinants of asset prices (see for example, Fisher and Statman 2000 and Baker and Wurgler 2006).  Studies such as Baek, Bandopadhyaya and Du (2005) suggest that shifts in investor sentiment may explain short-term movements in asset prices better than any other set of fundamental factors.  A wide array of investor sentiment measures are now available, which leads us quite naturally to the question of which measure best mirrors actual market movements.   In this paper, we begin to address this question by comparing two measures of investor sentiment which are computed daily by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) and for which historical data are freely available on the CBOE website, thus making them ideal for use by both academics and practitioners studying market behavior: the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) and the Volatility Index (VIX).  Using daily data from January 2, 2004 until April 11, 2006, we find that the PCR is a better explanatory variable than is the VIX for variations in the S&P 500 index that are not explained by economic factors.  This supports the argument that, if one were to choose between these two measures of market sentiment, the PCR is a better choice than the VIX.
Motivating And Managing Generation X And Y On The Job While Preparing For Z: A Market Oriented Approach
Authors: Montana Patrick J. , Petit Francis
Published: February 2016

This article examines the factors that have motivated Generation X and Y over time and the emerging attributes that will be impacting Generation Z.   More specifically, two hundred recent graduates and Executive MBA students (Generation X) as well as undergraduates (Generation Y) at Fordham University Schools of Business were surveyed recently and were asked to rank six (out of twenty five) factors they consider most important in motivating them to do their best work on the job.  When comparing Generation X and Generation Y, the results are very similar.   Both groups rank Respect for me as a person and Good Pay to be their top motivators.   While both groups have similar motivators in their top six including Chance for promotion, Opportunity to do interesting work and Opportunity for self-development and improvement, Generation Y differs greatly as Getting along well  with others on the job ranked third in their top six.  This factor is considered a “hybrid factor” that crosses motivation and maintenance needs.  While this “hybrid factor” does not appear as an important motivator among the Baby Boom generation, it is projected that Getting along well with others on the job will be a critical factor especially among Generation Z for a variety of reasons predominately their technical background.
A Combined Signal Approach To Technical Analysis On The S&P 500
Authors: Lento Camillo
Published: February 2016

This paper examines the effectiveness of nine technical trading rules on the S&P 500 from January 1950 to March 2008 (14,646 daily observations).  The annualized returns from each trading rule are compared to a naïve buy-and-hold strategy to determine profitability. Over the 59 year period, only the moving-average cross-over (1,200) and (5,150) trading rules were able to outperform the buy-and-hold trading strategy after adjusting for transaction costs. However, excess returns were generated by employing a Combined Signal Approach (CSA) on the individual trading rules. Statistical significance was confirmed through bootstrap simulations and robustness through sub-period analysis. 
Are Experienced Analysts More Accurate?
Authors: Fortin Rich , Gilkeson James H. , Michelson Stuart E.
Published: February 2016

We examine the relationship between analyst experience and the accuracy of annual earnings forecasts using a 20-year sample (1983-2002) from the Thomson Financial First Call I/B/E/S database.  We test for this relationship using three different measures of forecast accuracy employed by prior researchers, which are regressed against measures of general experience and specific experience, along with five other controls, for four independent 5-year subperiods, as well as for the full 20-year period.  We find that general experience levels are positively associated with forecast accuracy (negatively associated with forecast error) in most subperiods for two of the three measures of forecast accuracy.  We also find, in contrast with the extant literature, that for two of the three measures of forecast accuracy and for most subperiods, specific experience does not have an association with forecast accuracy beyond that provided by the general experience measure.  Our results suggest that the relationship between forecast accuracy and analyst experience (as well as some other commonly examined analyst characteristics) is dependent on the measure of accuracy employed and the time period studied.
Categorical Analytics Based On Consensus Theory
Authors: Katzan, Jr. Harry
Published: February 2016

Categorical analytics is an admixture of computational methods with the express purpose of facilitating the multifaceted process of unstructured decision making.  The complex subject is based on consensus theory and includes structured analytics, categories, entropy, and the combination of evidence.  The methodology is applicable to a wide range of business, economic, social, political, and strategic decisions.  The paper includes an election application to demonstrate the concepts.
Using Positive Visual Stimuli to Lighten The Online Learning Experience through In Class Questioning
Authors: Lai Chia-Hung , Liu Ming-Chi , Liu Chia-Ju , Huang Yueh-Min
Published: February 2016

Using in-class questions is an efficient instructional strategy to keep abreast of the state of student learning in a class. Some studies have found that discussing in-class questions in synchronous learning is helpful. These studies demonstrated that synchronous questions not only provide students with timely feedback, but also allow teachers to change the pedagogy adaptively. However, some studies have also shown negative results of synchronous questions in that students may resist being questioned because of anxiety. Therefore, this paper proposes an idea of showing students funny images in order to reward them for providing correct answers. The effect of connecting questions with funny image rewards was examined by collecting data on student test scores, on facial expressions and on electroencephalogram (EEG) responses elicited using this strategy. The data on students' facial expressions indicated that being presented with funny images for correct answers consistently helps to arouse positive emotions in participants. Also, the data on the EEG responses showed that the participants receiving the rewarded questions demonstrated a trend toward increasing levels of attention and relaxation. However, the results also revealed that significant improvements in test scores were not apparent regardless of whether or not amusing visual stimuli were used. The findings imply that showing funny images as a stimulus enhances students' affective states in student-teacher interactions during online learning activities.
College English Curriculum Reform in Mainland China: Contexts, Contents and Changes
Authors: Han Jiying , Yin Hongbiao
Published: February 2016

In China, the latest issued national guideline for college English teaching in 2007 has set a significant agenda for college English teaching and learning in the changed context with enhanced objectives for teaching and learning, decentralised guideline for individual institution, innovated teaching and learning process and evaluation system, and particular concern for teacher professional development. This study starts with a contextual analysis of the implementation of the latest round of college English curriculum reform in mainland China, then presents an overview of the content of the new curriculum, and finally elaborates the changes brought by the reform to various aspects of college English teaching and learning. Implications and directions for future research are indicated in concluding remarks. 
Experimental Study of Foam Generation, Sweep Efficiency, and Flow in a Fracture Network
Authors: Fernø M. A. , Gauteplass J.. , Pancharoen M.. , Haugen A.. , Graue A.. , Kovscek A. R. , Hirasaki G..
Published: February 2016

Foam generation for gas mobility reduction in porous media is a well-known method and frequently used in field applications. Application of foam in fractured reservoirs has hitherto not been widely implemented, mainly because foam generation and transport in fractured systems are not clearly understood. In this laboratory work, we experimentally evaluate foam generation in a network of fractures within fractured carbonate slabs. Foam is consistently generated by snap-off in the rough-walled, calcite fracture network during surfactant-alternating-gas (SAG) injection and coinjection of gas and surfactant solution over a range of gas fractional flows. Boundary conditions are systematically changed including gas fractional flow, total flow rate, and liquid rates. Local sweep efficiency is evaluated through visualization of the propagation front and compared for pure gas injection, SAG injection, and coinjection. Foam as a mobility-control agent resulted in significantly improved areal sweep and delayed gas breakthrough. Gas-mobility reduction factors varied from approximately 200 to more than 1,000, consistent with observations of improved areal sweep. A shear-thinning foam flow behavior was observed in the fracture networks over a range of gas fractional flows.
Characterizing, Designing, and Selecting Metal Mesh Screens for Standalone-Screen Applications
Authors: Mondal Somnath , Wu Chu-Hsiang , Sharma Mukul M. , Chanpura Rajesh A. , Parlar Mehmet , Ayoub Joseph A.
Published: February 2016

Discrete-element-method (DEM) simulations were shown to be useable for selecting screens with simple geometries (e.g., wire-wrap screens) under prepack test conditions (Mondal et al. 2011). Metal mesh screens (MMSs) (commonly referred to as premium screens) can have multiple (sometimes sintered) layers with different weave patterns. Any model for estimating sand production in such screens must account for these complexities. The objective of this paper is to explore different techniques to create accurate representations of complex filter media and to use them in numerical simulations and/or analytical models for improved screen selection.

In this paper, we used computed-tomography (CT) images of real-screen coupons to construct 3D replicas of two MMS types: plain square mesh (PSM) and plain Dutch weave (PDW). An entirely computer-based method of creating 3D screen assemblies is also presented. These virtual screens were compared and validated against those generated from the CT images. We conducted DEM simulations of prepack tests through these multilayer MMS assemblies. The retention efficiency of MMSs for different particle sizes was also calculated for better slurry-test modeling. We quantitatively showed that the effective size of MMS assemblies can be significantly lower than the nominal rating of the filter layer.

This paper augments the prepack-test and slurry-test models for mesh-type screens presented earlier (Mondal et al. 2012; Chanpura et al. 2013). Determination of the retention efficiency of MMSs, which is currently characterized by a single filter-cut point, is also a step forward in quality assurance and quality control of these screens. Finally, we demonstrate that one can conduct in-depth screen design and optimization studies with virtual meshes in a consistent way and at a fraction of the cost and time that would be required otherwise by use of conventional experimental techniques.
An Experimental Investigation of Viscous-Oil Recovery Efficiency as a Function of Voidage-Replacement Ratio
Authors: Kim Tae Wook , Vittoratos E.. , Kovscek A. R.
Published: February 2016

Recovery processes with a voidage-replacement ratio (VRR) (VRR = injected volume/produced volume) of unity rely solely on viscous forces to displace oil, whereas a VRR of zero relies on solution-gas drive. Activating a solution-gas-drive mechanism in combination with waterflooding with periods of VRR less than unity (VRR < 1) may be optimal for recovery. Laboratory evidence suggests that recovery for VRR < 1 is enhanced by emulsion flow and foamy (i.e., bubbly) crude oil at pressures under bubblepoint for some crude oils. This paper investigates the effect of VRR for two crude oils referred to as A1 (88 cp and 6.2 wt% asphaltene) and A2 (600 cp and 2.5 wt% asphaltene) in a sandpack system (18-in. length and 2-in. diameter). The crude oils are characterized with viscosity, asphaltene fraction, and acid/base numbers. A high-pressure experimental sandpack system (1 darcy and Swi = 0) was used to conduct experiments with VRRs of 1.0, 0.7, and 0 for both oils. During waterflood experiments, we controlled and monitored the rate of fluid injection and production to obtain well-characterized VRR. On the basis of the production ratio of fluids, the gas/oil and /water relative permeabilities were estimated under two-phase-flow conditions. For a VRR of zero, the gas relative permeability of both oils exhibited extremely low values (10−6−10−4) caused by internal gas drive. Waterfloods with VRR < 1 displayed encouraging recovery results. In particular, the final oil recovery with VRR = 0.7 [66.2% original oil in place (OOIP)] is more than 15% greater than that with VRR = 1 (55.6% OOIP) with A1 crude oil. Recovery for A2 with VRR = 0.7 (60.5% OOIP) was identical to the sum of oil recovery for solution-gas drive (19.1% OOIP) plus waterflooding (40.1% OOIP). An in-line viewing cell permitted inspection of produced fluid morphology. For A1 and VRR = 0.7, produced oil was emulsified, and gas was dispersed as bubbles, as expected for a foamy oil. For A2 and VRR < 1, foamy oil was not clearly observed in the viewing cell. In all cases, the water cut of VRR = 1 is clearly greater than that of VRR = 0.7. Finally, three-phase relative permeability was explored on the basis of the experimentally determined two-phase oil/water and liquid/gas relative permeability curves. Well-known algorithms for three-phase relative permeability, however, did not result in good history matches to the experimental data. Numerical simulations matched the experimental recovery vs. production time acceptably after modification of the measured krg and krow relationships. A concave shape for oil relative permeability that is suggestive of emulsified oil in situ was noted for both systems. The degree of agreement with experimental data is sensitive to the details of gas (gas/oil system) and oil (oil/water system) mobility.
Effect of Capillary Condensation on Gas Transport in Shale: A Pore-Scale Model Study
Authors: Bui Binh T. , Liu Hui-Hai , Chen Jinhong , Tutuncu Azra N.
Published: February 2016

The condensation of the gas inside nanopores at pressures lower than the dewpoint pressure, or capillary condensation, is an important physical phenomenon affecting the gas flow/transport process in shale. This work investigates the underlying transport mechanism and governing factors for the gas transport at a pore scale associated with capillary condensation. We numerically simulate and compare the gas-transport process within pores for two cases, with and without capillary condensation, while Knudsen diffusion, wall slippage, and phase transition are included in the numerical model. In each case, the simulations are performed for two pore geometries corresponding to a single pore and two parallel-connected pores. The main objective is to determine whether capillary condensation blocks or enhances gas transport during production. The results show that the presence of the liquid phase in the pore throat initially enhances the gas flow rate to the outlet of the pore, but significantly reduces it later. This blockage depends on pore geometry and the properties of the oil and gas phases. The relatively low mobility of the condensed liquid in the pore throat is the main factor that reduces the mass transport along the pore. The reduction of overall mass transport in a single pore is more significant than that for the parallel pore geometry. Implications of this work for predicting large-scale gas transport in shale are also discussed.
Estimation of concentration ratio of indicator to pathogen-related gene in environmental water based on left-censored data
Authors: Kato Tsuyoshi , Kobayashi Ayano , Ito Toshihiro , Miura Takayuki , Ishii Satoshi , Okabe Satoshi , Sano Daisuke
Published: February 2016

A stochastic model for estimating the ratio between a fecal indicator and a pathogen based on left-censored data, which includes a substantially high number of non-detects, was constructed. River water samples were taken for 16 months at six points in a river watershed, and conventional fecal indicators (total coliforms and general Escherichia coli), genetic markers (Bacteroides spp.), and virulence genes (eaeA of enteropathogenic E. coli and ciaB of Campylobacter jejuni) were quantified. The quantification of general E. coli failed to predict the presence of the virulence gene from enteropathogenic E. coli, different from what happened with genetic markers (Total Bac and Human Bac). A Bayesian model that was adapted to left-censored data with a varying analytical quantification limit was applied to the quantitative data, and the posterior predictive distributions of the concentration ratio were predicted. When the sample size was 144, simulations conducted in this study suggested that 39 detects were enough to accurately estimate the distribution of the concentration ratio, when combined with a dataset with a positive rate higher than 99%. To evaluate the level of accuracy in the estimation, it is desirable to perform a simulation using an artificially generated left-censored dataset that has the identical number of non-detects as the actual data.
Using probabilities of enterococci exceedance and logistic regression to evaluate long term weekly beach monitoring data
Authors: Aranda Diana , Lopez Jose V. , Solo-Gabriele Helena M. , Fleisher Jay M.
Published: February 2016

Recreational water quality surveillance involves comparing bacterial levels to set threshold values to determine beach closure. Bacterial levels can be predicted through models which are traditionally based upon multiple linear regression. The objective of this study was to evaluate exceedance probabilities, as opposed to bacterial levels, as an alternate method to express beach risk. Data were incorporated into a logistic regression for the purpose of identifying environmental parameters most closely correlated with exceedance probabilities. The analysis was based on 7,422 historical sample data points from the years 2000–2010 for 15 South Florida beach sample sites. Probability analyses showed which beaches in the dataset were most susceptible to exceedances. No yearly trends were observed nor were any relationships apparent with monthly rainfall or hurricanes. Results from logistic regression analyses found that among the environmental parameters evaluated, tide was most closely associated with exceedances, with exceedances 2.475 times more likely to occur at high tide compared to low tide. The logistic regression methodology proved useful for predicting future exceedances at a beach location in terms of probability and modeling water quality environmental parameters with dependence on a binary response. This methodology can be used by beach managers for allocating resources when sampling more than one beach.