bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The Accuracy of Business Week's Industry Outlook Survey
Authors: Schnaars Steven P. , Mohr Iris
Published: October 2008

How good is the Business Week industry outlook survey? We evaluated the accuracy of this survey since it was first published as a cover story in 1978. We examined whether these surveys are truly able to foresee the future, as the magazine claims, or whether they merely make for entertaining reading. Our study also offers fresh evidence on the value of judgmental forecasts. Our findings indicate that 80 percent of the outlooks correctly foresaw the general direction in which an industry was headed in the coming year. Furthermore, for every one of the five industries examined, specific forecasts contained in the outlooks were, on average, more accurate than those produced by a naive benchmark.
Ranking Onan's International Investment Options to Best Meet Its Multiple Objectives
Authors: Iyer Raja K.
Published: October 2008

Decision makers in most organizations face the complex task of choosing among alternatives in the presence of multiple objectives. Decision alternatives can be ranked using the concept of decisive dominance (the ability of an alternative to dominate other alternatives in as many of the objectives as possible) in a heuristic procedure. This method was applied to rank strategic options in planning international investments at Onan Corporation, a major manufacturer of electrical generator sets and industrial engines.
A Model for a First MBA Course in Management Science/Operations Research
Authors: Borsting Jack R. , Cook Thomas M. , King William R. , Rardin Ronald L. , Tuggle Francis D.
Published: October 2008

Our design for the first MS/OR course in an MBA curriculum aims to prepare all students to be consumers of MS/OR and to motivate a few to take further courses to become MS/OR producers. MS/OR is a way of perceiving, analyzing, and interacting with the world, and the first course should be utilitarian. Above all, students should understand the role of modeling as managers make decisions and solve problems. They should also develop an appreciation for the entire decision support process, understanding what MS/OR analysts do and why that work is important to an organization, and becoming excited by MS/OR. The pedagogy we propose focuses on problem formulation, on applications, and on understanding what practitioners do.
Measuring the Use of Capital Budgeting Techniques with the Postal Questionnaire: A UK Perspective
Authors: Mills Roger W.
Published: October 2008

In earlier issues of Interfaces, the value of results obtained from studies that used the postal questionnaire for research into capital budgeting practices has been questioned. This paper examines the criticisms of earlier studies, which relate to design and interpretation difficulties and the type of respondent typically used, within the context of a new study of practice. Its results support the criticisms concerning design and interpretation difficulties but not those that question the value of responses provided by typical corporate respondents.
Artificial Intelligence and the Management Science Practitioner: Expert Systems and MS/OR Methodology (Good News and Bad)
Authors: O'Keefe Robert M.
Published: October 2008

The expert systems community has generally ignored methodology: problem structuring, method identification, validation, implementation, and evaluation. The good news for the MS/OR community is that we have previously addressed these issues. The bad news is that we haven't developed many practices or procedures that can be directly transferred to expert systems. Many areas of methodology are weak across all the communities that are developing systems to support decision making. As technology becomes increasingly hybrid and easy to use, whichever community develops the best methodology for using it will prosper most.
An Expert System for Scheduling Satellite Supports
Authors: Kennedy Dale J. , Parnell Gregory S. , Rowell William F.
Published: October 2008

Scheduling communications contact between a satellite and tracking station (satellite support) is difficult and time consuming. It requires specialized knowledge and expertise. The two main objectives are to minimize the total number of supports required for each satellite and to maximize the scheduling flexibility provided to the tracking station schedulers. We developed a prototype expert system for scheduling satellite supports for satellites in the Global Positioning System. The prototype used Texas Instruments' Personal Consultant Plus software and incorporated a number of unique search routines and graphics. Because of the success of the prototype expert system, the Air Force has sponsored several follow-on applications of expert systems to scheduling satellite supports.
Merger Strategies, Economic Cycles, and Stockholder Value
Authors: Lubatkin Michael , O'Neill Hugh
Published: October 2008

Merging continues to be a popular strategic alternative. Since 1983, over 12,200 companies and corporate divisions, worth about a fifth of the market value of all traded stocks, have changed hands. Along with the wave of mergers are persistent myths, one being that stockholders of acquiring firms rarely benefit from mergers.

If mergers do not create stockholder value, why do corporate decision makers continue to view mergers as a way to achieve redirection and growth? If mergers do create stockholder value, why is there little supporting evidence? New evidence shows that certain types of mergers completed in certain economic contexts can enhance the wealth of stockholders in the acquiring firms.
Methods of Validating Expert Systems
Authors: O'Leary Daniel E.
Published: October 2008

Validating expert systems is critical. Without appropriate validation, the system may make costly errors. There are a number of methods of validating expert systems. They can be validated by analyzing and testing the knowledge base and inference engine individually. However, any analysis of the system components is limited to looking at pieces of the system and not at how they work together. The system as a whole can be analyzed by viewing it as a black box and determining the quality of its decisions or by opening up the black box and determining why it made particular decisions.
Expert Systems in Production and Operations Management: Classification and Prospects
Authors: Rao H. Raghav , Lingaraj B. P.
Published: October 2008

An expert system (ES) is a problem-solving package that mimics a human expert in a specialized problem area. Several ESs have already been successfully implemented in production and operations management (P/OM), and many more are being developed. Though P/OM is a promising area for ESs, applications to date have been haphazard and independent research efforts to produce customized designs. ESs in P/OM can be classified using a two-dimensional framework that separates strategically and tactically oriented applications on one dimension, and operations and resources on the other. We group ESs according to this two-dimensional framework and also indicate the knowledge representation scheme, reasoning, and system building tool or programming language used.
Reducing Distribution Costs in a Two-Level Inventory System at Ciba-Geigy
Authors: Fincke Ulrich , Vaessen Willem
Published: October 2008

Ciba-Geigy constructed a simulation model of a two-level inventory and distribution system to develop and analyze strategies for reducing overall distribution costs. The model covers all stages of distribution, beginning with production planning and ending with delivery of goods to customers in different countries. Besides considerable expected reductions in distribution costs, the model led to insight as to where to concentrate future efforts to reduce the capital tied up in the distribution chain. It also showed that a planned, highly automated inventory and distribution center removes the incentives for using a distribution strategy that “pushes” finished goods to the group companies immediately after production.
Franz Edelman Award for Management Science Achievement
Authors: Robinson Randall S. , Graves Stephen C.
Published: October 2008

Editorial by Randall S. Robinson, Chairman, 1988 Edelman Award, and Stephen C. Graves, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

The 17th annual Edelman competition got under way in the summer of 1987 with a call for abstracts. Submitted abstracts were reviewed by a selection committee, which picked 14 for what is termed verification. After verification, seven finalists were chosen to give presentations in an all-day session on April 24, 1988 at the TIMS/ORSA national meeting in Washington, DC. The judges deliberated from immediately after that session to about 2:00 a.m. the next morning.

The first prize, accompanied by a cash award of $6,000, was won by the City of San Francisco Police Department. Co-second prizes ($1,000 each) went to Electric Power Research Institute; and Marriott Corporation, Courtyard Division. Four finalists earned honorable mention, each with a prize of $500: Bethlehem Steel Corporation; Istanbul Chamber of Industry, Turkey; Texaco Inc.; and United States Air Force, Tinker Air Force Base.
A Break from Tradition for the San Francisco Police: Patrol Officer Scheduling Using an Optimization-Based Decision Support System
Authors: Taylor Philip E. , Huxley Stephen J.
Published: October 2008

The San Francisco Police Department (SFPD) recently implemented an optimization-based decision support system for deploying patrol officers. It forecasts hourly needs, schedules officers to maximize coverage, and allows fine tuning to meet human needs. The fine-tuning mode helps captains evaluate schedule changes and suggests alternatives. The system also evaluates policy options for strategic deployment. The integer search procedure generates solutions that make 25 percent more patrol units available in times of need, equivalent to adding 200 officers to the force or a savings of $11 million per year. Response times improved 20 percent, while revenues from traffic citations increased by $3 million per year.
EPRI Reduces Fuel Inventory Costs in the Electric Utility Industry
Authors: Chao Hung-po , Chapel Stephen W. , Clark Charles E. , Morris Peter A. , Sandling M. James , Grimes Richard C.
Published: October 2008

An industry-wide utility fuel inventory model has been used by electric utilities to manage the cost and the risks of holding inventory. The model, which is based on a combination of analytical and simulation models, has been successfully transferred to over 74 utilities for a realized savings of over $125 million.
Supplying Ecuador's Health Workers Just in Time
Authors: Smith Howard L. , Mangelsdorf Karen R. , Castro Luna Jose , Reid Richard A.
Published: October 2008

Just-in-time (JIT) principles were used to analyze the operation of Ecuador's medical supply system that serves rural community health workers (CHWs). We completed a descriptive analysis of supply shortages and replenishment policies in six of Ecuador's provinces. Our findings indicate that supply outages are caused by poor planning associated with replenishment cycle times, centralization of supply centers, and CHW travel time to supply warehouses. Furthermore, CHWs frequently circumvent official policies and procedures in obtaining needed supplies, producing higher health care costs. We used a set-covering algorithm to provide a systematic analysis of some supply-replenishment alternatives that reduced costs associated with CHW-initiated JIT practices.
Railroad Property Valuation Using Data Envelopment Analysis
Authors: Adolphson Donald L. , Cornia Gary C. , Walters Lawrence C.
Published: October 2008

Railroad companies in the United States pay hundreds of millions of dollars in property tax each year. Railroad and tax officials often disagree about the appraisal methodology as well as the appraised value of railroads. A frequent area of disagreement is in the measurement of obsolescence, defined as the reduction in value due to changing economic conditions or design limitations. Current methods of measuring obsolescence in railroads systematically overestimate obsolescence. Data envelopment analysis (DEA) can be used to obtain a better measure of obsolescence. The states of Utah and Wisconsin have adopted the DEA method of measuring obsolescence.
A Multivariate Study of Firm Performance and the Use of Modern Analytical Tools and Financial Techniques
Authors: Moore James S. , Reichert Alan K.
Published: October 2008

A survey of the Fortune 500 firms reveals that major domestic corporations are selective yet progressive adoptors of formal analytical procedures and hold positive perceptions regarding the role of microcomputers in the corporate decision-making process. We used logistic regression and multiple discriminate models to predict a firm's performance relative to that of its primary industry. Three analytical techniques (financial leverage, inventory management, and internal rate-of-return) plus widespread encouragement of the use of personal computers positively influence firm performance.
Applying Integer Linear Programming to the Fleet Assignment Problem
Authors: Abara Jeph
Published: October 2008

We formulated and solved the fleet assignment problem as an integer linear programming model, permitting assignment of two or more fleets to a flight schedule simultaneously. The objective function can take a variety of forms including profit maximization, cost minimization, and the optimal utilization of a particular fleet type. Several departments at American Airlines use the model to assist in fleet planning and schedule development. It will become one of 10 key decision modules for the next generation scheduling system currently being developed by American Airlines Decision Technologies.
Leave the D*** Lights On
Authors: Mosier Charles T. , Sheldon George
Published: October 2008

We respond (in kind) to the criticisms in this issue by Randolph [Randolph, Paul H. 1989. Turn off the lights. Interfaces 19(4, July–August) 89–91.] levied against our paper [Mosier, Charles T., George W. Sheldon, Glen E. Avery. 1988. Should we turn off the lights when leaving. Interfaces 18(5, September–October) 62–71.], which presented an economic decision model of fluorescent light usage.
More on Erkut's “More on Morrison and Wheat's ‘Pulling the Goalie Revisited'”
Authors: Nydick Robert L. , Weiss Howard J.
Published: October 2008

Through the use of the well-known Morrison/Wheat/Erkut ice hockey model, we demonstrate that even optimal solutions may be open to question. Based on the assumptions which are made to estimate data values, optimal solutions may vary among decision makers. We also note that under any reasonable set of assumptions, hockey coaches wait too long before pulling their goalies.
Artificial Intelligence and the Management Science Practitioner: One Definition of Knowledge-Based Expert Systems
Authors: Fordyce Kenneth , Norden Peter , Sullivan Gerald
Published: October 2008

Over the past two years we have attempted, through our writing and the writing of others, to convey to the management science practitioner the value of integrating knowledge-based expert system (KBES) techniques with MS/OR techniques. We firmly believe this will lead to successful applications. We employed this combination to successfully build an application system, called LMS, to monitor and control the IBM semiconductor facility in Essex Junction, Vermont [Feigenbaum, McCorduck, and Nii 1988; Fordyce and Sullivan 1989]. We often find in our work a need for a definition of KBES that does not involve techniques or products. What follows is our present definition of KBES. We are sure it is not the last word on the subject, but we think readers will find it helpful.
Note: A Comment on “A Hybrid Knowledge-Based System for Allocating Retail Space…” by Singh, Cook, and Corstjens
Authors: Fordyce Kenneth
Published: October 2008

A comment by Kenneth Fordyce and a reply by Madan G. Singh, one of the authors of the original paper.
The Future of Operations Research in the Government
Authors: Saaty Thomas L.
Published: October 2008

The crucial thrust of this report develops some ideas about how operations research and management science may increase their effective participation in high level governmental decision making. The opportunity confronting operations research to participate actively in charting the future of our society is one of the greatest opportunities offered to any field of science today. This report will consider the components of the gross national product as an aid in measuring the potential for using operations research as a resource allocation tool, will enumerate briefly on a few of the high level governmental operations research positions, and will consider the discipline in legislation and planning. Several recommendations conclude the report. Two main problems to be considered are the following: 1. What are these large scale issues to which OR can make a contribution? 2. From what organizational base can OR have the greatest impact—both on policy and its implementation?
Perspectives on MS Applications—All Around the Model
Authors: Shycon Harvey N.
Published: October 2008

In this series of articles I have attempted to address the problem of successful implementation of management science studies. In my last column, appearing in the November 1971 issue, I developed the thesis that management has generally recognized the need to know more about management science and evidenced this need by sponsoring and attending educational sessions in the management sciences which were directed primarily toward managerial needs. The seminars stressed the concepts of management science and illustrated how these concepts are applied to real decision problems.
Management Science Roundup
Authors: Bucatinsky Julio
Published: October 2008

In the first part, the editor announces new correspondents of the column, asks for feedback about the relevance and usefulness of the material, and encourages the formation of groups within TIMS whose main purpose is to promote the use of management science methods within a given industry.

In this issue the following topics are presents:

—“Specials: (1) Let's apply the management sciences—David B. Hertz, (2) Trends in technology and trade—James H. Wakelin, Jr., (3) Management science at American Express—Robert C. Reiner”;

—“Reports: (1) Planning and control in marketing and finance—Markland, (2) Mini-information system for a bank—Komar, (3) Operations planning—Parker, (4) Management Science in Denver, Colorado—Anglund, (5) STAR symposium in Washington—Harris, (6) International Planning Conference—JB, and (7) College on Finance being organized—JB”;

—“Seen Elsewhere: (1) Profit, the Role of Management Science and Management Education, (2) CPM in Building and Civil Construction, (3) O/R Application to Furniture Production, (4) Analysis of Some Time Sharing Techniques, (5) Power Demand and Load Forecasting, (6) How Engineers Provided Input to Management Information Systems, (7) Designing Human Oriented Codes, (8) Using Simulation to Accomplish Practical Job Sequencing, (9) Use of Probability and Utility Theory in the Analysis of Capital Investment Alternatives, (10) Engineering Manpower Planning and Skill Forecasting, (11) Model Building with Particular Reference to the Use of Productive Capacity, (12) How Can Systems Engineers Do Systems Engineering, (13) Adaptive Control Economics, (14) Utilizing Management Information Systems, and (15) Optimal Inspection Procedures”;

—“Bulletin Board: (1) TIMS meetings, (2) Other meetings/symposia, (3) Personal notes, and (4) Notices”;

—“Deadline for future issues of INTERFACES”.
A Note on Systems Science
Authors: Ackoff Russell L.
Published: October 2008

The emergence of Systems Science does not constitute a rejection of traditional scientific and humanistic disciplines. It supplements them with a new way of thinking that is better suited than they to deal with large-scale societal problems. It offers us some hope of dealing successfully with such problems as poverty, racial and other types of discrimination, crime, environmental deterioration, and underdevelopment of countries. Systems Science may not only be able to assure man of a future, but it may also enable him to gain control of it.
A Choice-Modeling Market Information System That Enabled ABB Electric to Expand Its Market Share
Authors: Gensch Dennis H. , Aversa Nicola , Moore Steven P.
Published: October 2008

In its third year of existence, ABB Electric was approaching the break-even point when it was confronted with a 50 percent drop in total industry sales of electrical equipment. The only way the firm could survive was to take customers from established major competitors. The firm developed a new type of marketing information system utilizing multiattribute choice modeling. It identified the current perceptions of customers on ABB's products versus various competitor's products. First, ABB used this information on what customers most want from products to devise strategies for taking customers and market segments from competitors. Second, the models' predictive accuracy enabled ABB to organize to meet the customer needs as the low-cost producer. Third, the information guided the firm in selecting new products that were preferred by customers and for which ABB had long-term cost advantages. ABB survived, grew, and now is the dominant firm in its industry.
Optimizer: IBM's Multi-Echelon Inventory System for Managing Service Logistics
Authors: Cohen Morris , Kamesam Pasumarti V. , Kleindorfer Paul , Lee Hau , Tekerian Armen
Published: October 2008

IBM recently implemented Optimizer, a system for flexible and optimal control of service levels and spare parts inventory, in its US network for service support. It is based upon recent research in multi-echelon inventory theory to address the IBM network. The inherent complexity and very large scale of the basic problem required IBM to develop suitable algorithms and sophisticated data structures and required large-scale systems integration. Optimizer has greatly improved IBM's US service business. The implementation of Optimizer has made it possible to make strategic changes to the configuration and control of the parts distribution network. It resulted in simultaneously reducing inventory investment and operating costs and improving service levels. Most important, however, Optimizer has proven to be a highly flexible planning and operational control system.
Managing Institutionalization of Strategic Decision Support for the Egyptian Cabinet
Authors: El Sherif Hisham
Published: October 2008

Our approach to managing institutionalization has evolved from the implementation of 28 large projects in Egypt. The projects were part of a program initiated by the Cabinet of Egypt late in 1985. The aim of the program is to improve strategic decision making at the cabinet level. Projects were driven by macro strategic issues or needs for management and technological development in establishing decision support systems (DSS) in different ministries, sectors, and governorates. The systems supported debt management, public sector performance evaluation, customs reform, energy pricing, and general performance administrative decision making. Our experience with the introduction, development, and use of these systems suggests that managing institutionalization is as important as model building. It should be an explicit, complementary, and integrated process that accompanies system development and model building.
Artificial Intelligence, Simulation, and Modeling
Authors: Widman Lawrence E. , Loparo Kenneth A.
Published: October 2008

Artificial intelligence and simulation overlap increasingly as computer hardware prices fall and software sophistication increases. Artificial intelligence programming methods permit more realistic and robust simulation models and help the user develop, run, and interpret simulation experiments. Simulation algorithms permit expert systems to reason about complex models that change over time or include interacting stochastic elements. This article describes basic concepts in artificial intelligence and highlights expected benefits in each field over the next decade.
Puzzle Contests in MS/OR Education
Authors: Weber Glenn
Published: October 2008

Big bucks (!!!) can be made using MS/OR techniques to solve monthly national puzzle contests. These types of puzzles have proven to be successful tools in teaching model formulations and algorithms, and they are just plain fun to solve!
Note: Will the CEO Ever Know What MS/OR Is?
Authors: Vazsonyi Andrew
Published: October 2008

Reflections on the content and timing for the first MBA course in management science/operations research.
Northern Border Pipeline Logistics Simulation
Authors: Bammi Deepak
Published: October 2008

A simulation model in GPSS analyzed whether pipe for the Northern Border Pipeline could be delivered within the planned nine months. This analysis led to a 20-percent reduction in railcars needed for transporting the pipe, saving $4.5 million in railcar hiring costs. The reduced number of railcars were hired and the pipeline was completed on schedule as predicted. The model also led to considerable insight regarding meshing factory operations with train loading, transit, unloading, and welding. It was detailed enough to consider the arrival of pipe from abroad, construction of pipe in domestic factories, train transportation including breakdowns, barge transportation, unloading pipe, inspection and subsequent welding.
Standard-Maintaining and Continuous-Improvement Systems: Experiences and Comparisons
Authors: Melcher Arlyn , Acar William , DuMont Paul , Khouja Moutaz
Published: October 2008

Accelerating competitive pressures are placing increasing burdens upon business management, particularly in manufacturing enterprises. The typical Western response has been to develop some major new product or process technology. The Japanese responded to the same situation by focusing on organizational structure and processes. While both approaches have merit, the organization resulting from the Japanese approach appears better able to cope with today's environmental dynamics.
The Auction Algorithm for Assignment and Other Network Flow Problems: A Tutorial
Authors: Bertsekas Dimitri P.
Published: October 2008

The auction algorithm is an intuitive method for solving the classical assignment problem. It outperforms substantially its main competitors for important types of problems, both in theory and in practice and is also naturally well suited for parallel computation. I derive the algorithm from first principles, explain its computational properties, and discuss its extensions to transportation and transshipment problems.
Southern California Gas Company Uses Special Ordered Sets to Model Regulatory Guidelines
Authors: Creegan Joseph B. , Monforte Frank A.
Published: October 2008

Modeling rule-based decisions often conflicts with the mathematics of optimization because the rules may conditionally force actions that are not economically optimal. In order to simulate the reality of the public utility business, Southern California Gas Company (SoCalGas) includes in their operations planning models rule-based guidelines regulating the treatment of customers and suppliers. One approach to modeling such conditional guidelines is to use mixed integer programming (MIP); however, MIP is often avoided if possible because of its reputation for poor performance. SoCalGas uses an advanced mixed integer programming solution technique, special ordered sets (SOS) of type 2, to model the guidelines effectively and efficiently.
The Diet Problem
Authors: Dantzig George B.
Published: October 2008

This is a story about connections. If a certain event hadn't happened way back in 1937, then 10 years later it is certain that linear programming and the simplex method would never have happened (at least not then), and many people's lives and the way some enterprises plan their future would have turned out quite differently.
History of the Development of LP Solvers
Authors: Orchard-Hays William
Published: October 2008

In this history of LP solvers, I describe my efforts from the early days of working with card-programmed calculators and mainframes up to the large systems in use today. The improvements in solvers paralleled the improvements in computers, and what were large problems in the early days are small problems today.
Cutting Big M Down to Size
Authors: Camm Jeffrey D. , Raturi Amitabh S. , Tsubakitani Shigeru
Published: October 2008

Some texts and applied research papers continue to advocate the use of “M,” an “extremely large number,” in modeling a fixed charge in binary integer programs. This choice of M can be very detrimental to solving even reasonably sized problems. Previous research provides straightforward techniques which should be implemented by any person intelligent enough to develop an MIP model.
Book Reviews
Authors: Lev Benjamin
Published: October 2008

Samson, Danny 1988, Managerial Decision Analysis, Richard D. Irwin, Homewood, Illinois, 743 pp., $47.50—reviewed by Ha Jin Hwang

Harmon, Roy and Peterson, Leroy 1990, Reinventing the Factory: Productivity Breakthroughs in Manufacturing Today, The Free Press, A Division of Macmillan Inc., New York, 303 pp., $35.00—reviewed by Heungsoon Felix Lee

Hoover, Stewart V. and Perry, Ronald F. 1989, Simulation: A Problem-Solving Approach, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading, Massachusetts, 400 pp., $43.96—reviewed by Layek Abdel-Malek

Tabucanon, Mario T. 1989, Multiple Criteria Decision Making in Industry, Elsevier, The Netherlands, 356 pp., $117.00—reviewed by Ha Jin Hwang

Mumford, Enid and MacDonald, W. Bruce 1989, Xsel's Progress, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 241 pp., $44.95—reviewed by David Chender Chou
The Coast Guard's KSS Project
Authors: Kimbrough Steven O. , Pritchett Clark W. , Bieber Michael P. , Bhargava Hemant K.
Published: October 2008

Since June 1986, the University of Pennsylvania has been under contract with the Coast Guard to provide support for the Coast Guard's KSS (knowledge-based decision support systems) project. A principal output of the KSS project has been Max, a DSS shell or environment, originally designed to support modeling tasks during decision making for ship acquisition. Max is innovative in a number of ways: (1) it is a document-oriented DSS, (2) Max documents are generalized hypertext documents for which the buttons and linkages to associated information are set up dynamically at run time by the system, and (3) Max contains a model management system, called TEFA, which can represent and evaluate a broad range of models. In addition, TEFA is able to represent a rich body of information about its models and data, and this meta-information is available through the generalized hypertext facilities of system. Max has been delivered to the Coast Guard and is in use. Several important Coast Guard and Navy models have been implemented in Max at very low cost.
An Executive Information System to Support Wildfire Disaster Declarations
Authors: Simard Albert J. , Eenigenburg James E.
Published: October 2008

We developed an executive information system to support federal wildfire disaster declarations. Weather data is automatically accessed from multiple national weather data networks; large-fire data is manually entered. A data-base management subsystem uses custom and commercial software packages to process and archive daily weather files. The decision support subsystem calculates the daily probability of a large wild land fire for every climate division in the country. The system produces one-page executive reports oriented to management by exception. On-site graphics software converts the reports into national and regional maps. The 99 percent reliable PC-based system predicted 75 percent of all large fires during 29 months of testing.
The Manufacturing Research Center at the Georgia Institute of Technology
Authors: Thomas Michael E.
Published: October 2008

A unique partnership among industry, state government, and university resulted in the establishment of the Manufacturing Research Center at the Georgia Institute of Technology with the purpose of bringing university researchers in contact with manufacturing research problems faced by US industry in meeting the global competition. The State of Georgia has developed a model of providing research infrastructure in specific areas identified by a consortium established by the governor. This consortium then contracted with McKinsey and Company to identify areas of competitive advantage in the research universities supported by the state. As funds are identified, the state constructs and equips a facility to conduct research in one of these areas and assigns responsibility to the appropriate state university. The university then finds funds to support the research agenda by developing ties with industry and the federal government. The $15,000,000 facility is under construction on the Georgia Tech campus. Georgia Tech has already developed funding from DEC, IBM, Motorola, and Ford to support a research program in electronics manufacturing. Other firms appear on the verge of joining this group. A million dollar commitment over a five-year period is required.
Chesapeake R&D Sponsor Groups
Authors: Cleaves Gerard W. , Baker Thomas E.
Published: October 2008

Chesapeake forms sponsor groups from its international client base in the petroleum, chemical, paper, and manufacturing industries to fund the development of software products for production planning and scheduling. Its MIMI products provide an interactive decision support framework for planning and scheduling with application modules based on OR, expert systems, interactive graphics, and data-base methodologies. If a sponsor is satisfied with the product, it is entitled to a company-wide license to use it; if not, it can use its contribution to license any other Chesapeake product.
Book Reviews
Authors: Lev Benjamin
Published: October 2008

Tompkins, James A. 1989, Winning Manufacturing: The How-to Book of Successful Manufacturing, Industrial Engineering and Management Press, Norcross, Georgia, 223 pp., $32.95 ($27.95 IIE members)—reviewed by Heungsoon Felix Lee

Balachandra, R. 1989, Early Warning Signals for R&D Projects, Lexington Books, Lexington, Massachusetts/Toronto, 220 + xvii pp., $39.95—reviewed by Falguni Sen

Kang, T. W. 1989, Is Korea the Next Japan? The Free Press Inc., New York, 196 pp., $19.95—reviewed by Holger Hinz

Ermoliev, Y. and Wets, R. eds. 1988, Numerical Techniques for Stochastic Optimization, Springer-Verlag, New York, 571 pp., $74.00—reviewed by John R. Birge

Tushman, Michael L. and Moore, William L. 1988, Readings in the Management of Innovation, second edition, Ballinger Publishing Company, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 769 + xiv pp., $22.95—reviewed by Francis W. Wolek

Gnedenko, B. V. and Kovalenko, I. N. 1989, Introduction to Queueing Theory, second edition, Birkhauser, Boston, Massachusetts, 314 + xi pp., $59.00—reviewed by U. Narayan Bhat

Gani, J. ed. 1988, A Celebration of Applied Probability, Applied Probability Trust, The University, Sheffield S3 7RH, England, 387 pp., $40.00—reviewed by David D. Yao

Van Rijn, C.F.H., ed. 1989, Logistics: Where Ends Have to Meet: Proceedings of the Shell Conference on Logistics, Apeldoorn, The Netherlands, 2–3 November 1988, Pergamon Press, New York, 234 + viii pp., $75.00—reviewed by Ton Volgenant

Timpe, A. Dale, ed. 1989, Productivity, Kend Publishing, Emerson, New Jersey, 371 + xii pp., $29.95—reviewed by R. Gehani

Shingo, Shigeo 1989, A Study of the Toyota Production System from an Industrial Engineering Viewpoint, Productivity, Inc., Norwalk, Connecticut, 257 + xxxiv pp., $39.95 (hard cover)—reviewed by P. S. Thomas

Martins, John G. and Svensson, Morgan 1988, Profitability and Industrial Robots, IFS (Publications), Bedford, United Kingdom, 170 pp., $24.95—reviewed by Thomas Romeyke
American Airlines Arrival Slot Allocation System (ASAS)
Authors: Vasquez-Marquez Alberto
Published: October 2008

In early 1989, the system operations control center at American Airlines implemented a network-optimization-based system to help reduce delays imposed by air traffic control. The Arrival Slot Allocation System (ASAS) is an interactive decision support tool that uses a network-based heuristic to help flight dispatch personnel take advantage of flight cancellations to reschedule arrivals into an airport. When bad weather or other unpredictable factors reduce the capacity of the airport or airspace for traffic, the Federal Aviation Administration employs ground-delay programs to hold aircraft at their originating cities. These delays affect airline dependability statistics adversely and inconvenience passengers. In recent years, air traffic control has developed slot-substitution rules that allow airlines to use the arrival slots of canceled flights to reduce delays created by the ground-delay programs. In one year, using ASAS the system operations control center reduced the delays imposed by air traffic control by approximately 345,000 minutes. This translates into $5.2 million savings in direct operating costs for the airline. ASAS also improved dependability statistics for American Airlines by an average of two percent per ground-delay program.
Diagnosis Related Groups: Understanding Hospital Performance
Authors: Fetter Robert B.
Published: October 2008

Diagnosis related groups (DRGs) were originally developed to provide product definitions for the output of hospitals. They can serve as a basis for budgeting, cost control, and quality control in hospitals. They were adopted by Medicare in 1983 to serve as a basis for a prospective payment system (PPS) for US hospitals. This system has resulted in savings of more than $50 billion in Medicare hospital payments through 1990 and extended the solvency of the Medicare Hospital Trust Fund well into the next century. Many other payers for hospital care have adopted DRG systems, including state Medicaid programs and private insurers, such as Blue Cross. More than 20 countries are currently developing or have adopted DRG-based systems for managing and financing hospital care.
The Simulator: New Member of the Simulation Family
Authors: Banks Jerry , Aviles Eduardo , McLaughlin James R. , Yuan Robert C.
Published: October 2008

A simulator is a parameter-driven simulation that requires no programming. When appropriate, the simulator models a process quite rapidly. Since the early '80s, software companies have introduced many simulators for manufacturing; they use parameters to describe the model and allow many features. We examined four of the many simulators available, and their features indicate the types of considerations involved in selecting software.
AIDSPLAN: A Decision Support Model for Planning the Provision of HIV/AIDS-Related Services
Authors: Rizakou E. , Rosenhead J. , Reddington K.
Published: October 2008

AIDSPLAN is a customized spreadsheet model for use as a decision support tool in planning resources for HIV/AIDS-related services. Constructing the model has been a cooperative venture involving both the British Government's Department of Health and the operational research group at the London School of Economics. The model, which runs on a microcomputer, incorporates a demand-forecasting facility by patient category. Alternative care options can be specified for each patient category. For any given set of categories, forecasts, and care options, AIDSPLAN produces estimates of resource and cost requirements and can also produce a variety of aggregated or disaggregated summaries. The model is designed for use by those concerned with planning HIV/AIDS-related services as an option-scanning device to examine the consequences of particular policies within a range of possible external scenarios.
A Policy Model of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Screening and Intervention
Authors: Brandeau Margaret L. , Lee Hau L. , Owens Douglas K. , Sox Carol H. , Wachter Robert M.
Published: October 2008

The epidemics of acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) and its causative agent, the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), are serious and growing. In response to the epidemic, policy makers have instituted a variety of interventions, often before careful studies of program costs and benefits have been carried out. We have developed an analytic decision model to assess HIV screening and intervention policies. The model is a dynamic compartmental epidemic model that captures disease transmission and disease progression, behavioral changes, and the effects of screening and other interventions. We illustrate the model by analyzing screening programs aimed at reducing the birthrate of HIV-infected infants.
AIDS: Predicting the Next Map
Authors: Gould Peter , Kabel Joseph , Gorr Wilpen , Golub Andrew
Published: October 2008

In modeling the AIDS epidemic, the geographic dimensions have been totally ignored, partly as a result of ignorance, partly from an exaggerated and unreasoned concern for confidentiality. For both educational intervention (animated cartography for television) and health planning (expanding already overstressed facilities), it is necessary to predict the next maps, not just numbers down the time line. Spatial adaptive filtering, combined with parametric tracking, searches out and employs both spatial and temporal structure in (x, y, t) series, producing geographic forecasts with greatly reduced error terms compared to conventional approaches.
An Execution Planning Algorithm for Military Airlift
Authors: Solanki Rajendra S. , Southworth Frank
Published: October 2008

Execution planning at the military airlift command of the US Air Force involves updating the routes and schedules of aircraft to reflect changing requirements for moving freight and personnel and changing airlift resources. The problem can be characterized as a pickup and delivery problem with time windows and node capacities. The constraints on the capacities of the nodes (airfields) limit the rate at which the aircraft can be serviced and the amount of requirements (tonnage of cargo, number of passengers) that can be loaded and unloaded at an airfield per day. The execution planning algorithm described can be used daily to modify the existing airlift operations plan. An algorithm based on the insertion heuristic was selected for implementation due to its computational feasibility and its capability to absorb complex constraints arising in the execution planning problem. The insertion heuristic has the additional desirable feature of keeping intact as much of the existing schedule as possible.
Keeping the Helicopters Flying—Using a Knowledge-Based Task Support System to Manage Maintenance
Authors: Byrd Terry A. , Markland Robert E. , Karwan Kirk R. , Philipoom Patrick R.
Published: October 2008

We used knowledge-based and object-oriented techniques to create the intelligent maintenance management system (IMMS). We developed IMMS to support maintenance officers in scheduling helicopters for maintenance at an air national guard base. Before the implementation of IMMS, maintenance officers were using a manual system to manage the scheduling process. However, they were encountering many scheduling problems. Solving these problems at the base pointed to a computer-based system. However, researchers have observed that computer-based systems have limitations in supporting decision makers in complex tasks. IMMS is a first attempt to overcome some of these limitations in a practical system. The system provides data, information, and decision-making assistance to the maintenance staff. IMMS is used on a daily basis and has proven to solve many of the management problems that the staff was having.
Estimating Loads of Aircraft in Planning for the Military Airlift Command
Authors: Rappoport Harold K. , Levy Laurence S. , Golden Bruce L. , Feshbach David S.
Published: October 2008

The Military Airlift Command of the United States Air Force is responsible for evaluating the ability of the air force to move cargo and passengers during contingency situations (“deliberate planning”). This requires that aircraft be assigned to loads and scheduled. While most analyses have addressed aircraft assignment as a plane minimization problem because of constraints on the available airlift capacity, we addressed the problem as an aircraft load maximization problem. Our algorithm seeks to utilize each aircraft more fully. We compare this approach with a previous procedure.
Staffing a Centralized Appointment Scheduling Department in Lourdes Hospital
Authors: Agnihothri Saligrama R. , Taylor Patricia F.
Published: October 2008

Lourdes Hospital uses a centralized system to schedule appointments by phone for outpatients, inpatients, and other ambulatory services requested by physicians, their staff, hospital personnel, and patients. Customer surveys and an increase in customer complaints revealed lengthy delays in answering telephone calls. We used a queuing model to find the optimal staffing levels to handle the variation in call arrivals within a day. The problem was solved by just rearranging the work shifts, without adding any staff. We also provide an easy-to-reference generalized queuing table to aid others in deciding staffing levels where M/M/c approximation is appropriate.
Book Reviews
Authors: Lev Benjamin
Published: October 2008

Austin, James E. 1990, Managing in Developing Countries, The Free Press, New York, 465 pp., $35.00—reviewed by John Whittaker

Japan Institute of Plant Maintenance and the Nachi-Fujikoshi Corporation 1986, Training for TPM: A Manufacturing Success Story, Productivity Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 258 pp., $59.95—reviewed by Kwok-sang Chui

Shenoy, G. V. 1989, Linear Programming Methods and Applications, John Wiley and Sons, Somerset, New Jersey, viii + 255 pp., $34.95—reviewed by William B. Widhelm

Greenley, Gordon E. 1989, Strategic Management, Prentice Hall, New York, 405 pp., $25.80—reviewed by T. K. Das

Lucas, Henry C.; Ginzberg, Michael J.; and Schultz, Randall L. 1990, Information Systems Implementation: Testing a Structural Model, Ablex Publishing, Norwood, New Jersey, 160 pp., $32.50—reviewed by Susan A. Sherer
Introduction to the DSS Prize Papers
Authors: Gray Paul
Published: October 2008

Overview of the competition held in conjunction with the DSS '91 meeting in Redondo Beach, California, from June 6 to 8, 1991. The objective of the competition is to recognize and honor the best work in decision support systems worldwide.
The Fifth Column: La Méthode de Charles-Maurice de Talleyrand or Maximized Acceptance with Optimized Agendas
Authors: Woolsey Robert E. D.
Published: October 2008

The paper discusses running a real-world MS/OR problem using the Sorted Agenda Method of Talleyrand, foreign minister of the Empire of Napoleon I. To overcome obvious weaknesses of the One-Answer Syndrome, this approach presents a mock agenda of at least five options geared toward acceptance of what is the real standpoint one wants to defend.
Validation Strategies for Multiple Regression Analysis: Using the Coefficient of Determination
Authors: Sobol Marion G.
Published: October 2008

Multiple regression equations designed to explain or predict should be validated. This tutorial shows how recalculation of the coefficient of determination on hold-out sample data or new sample data can be used to improve regression equations and to test them for validity. The Herzberg equation is used as a criterion for acceptable shrinkage when the coefficient of determination is calculated on new data. Nevertheless, validation is an art rather than a science because elimination of unstable variables as well as different types of data splitting, use of new sample data, and adjustments for external differences when test samples are used from different time periods can lead to different decisions on whether the equations have been validated. Various strategies can be used to find effective validation techniques.