bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Examining the Impact of Regulatory Measures on the Implementation of Nature-Based Solutions in Urban Water Management: Insights from Finland
Authors: Saarinen Aino , Leskinen Piia , Reini Aleksi , Kasvi Elina
Published: March 2024

Climate adaptation and climate change prevention have become essential aspects of city planning. Urbanization and changing climatic conditions pose a threat to the sustainability of cities, and excess stormwater exacerbates these challenges by causing flooding and pollution of the receiving water bodies. To address these issues, cities must enhance the sustainability and climate resilience of their stormwater management systems. Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) offer a sustainable alternative to traditional grey infrastructure by providing water retention, detention, and pollutant reduction capabilities. Despite their numerous benefits, the adoption of NBS lags behind, with conventional solutions often being favored. Effective policy measures are crucial for promoting the integration of NBS into urban water management systems and aligning them with overall sustainability goals. This study uses multilevel analysis that begins with an examination of EU policies and national legislation to understand the regulatory landscape. The focus then shifts to local stormwater regulation practices, which are explored through interviews with stormwater experts from various cities. These interviews provide insights into the practicalities, functionality, and shortcomings of stormwater regulation practices. Finally, this study focuses on Turku, analyzing the impact of the Blue-Green Index (BGI), which has been used to direct new constructions to use Green Infrastructure and NBS. The analysis of Turku's construction plans serves as a real-world case study to evaluate the actual effects of BGI on NBS implementation.This research adds to the academic conversation by examining the complex relationship between regulatory measures and the practical application of Nature-Based Solutions (NBS) in urban water management. By analyzing decision-making processes at various levels, this study offers detailed insights into the difficulties and potential opportunities associated with promoting environmentally sustainable water solutions in cities. The findings of this research have significant implications for policymakers, urban planners, and environmental practitioners and could help inform strategies that encourage the adoption of NBS and create more resilient and sustainable urban water management systems.
Insolation triggered abrupt cooling at the end of interglacials and implication for the future 
Authors: Yin Qiuzhen , Wu Zhipeng , Liang Ming-Qiang , Berger Andre , Goosse Hugues , Hodell David
Published: March 2024

Paleoclimate records show that the end of interglacials of the late Pleistocene was marked by abrupt cooling events. Strong abrupt cooling occurring when climate was still in a warm interglacial condition is puzzling. Our transient climate simulations for the eleven interglacial (sub)stages of the past 800,000 years show that, when summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) high latitudes decreases to a critical value (a threshold), it triggers a strong, abrupt weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and consequently an abrupt cooling in the NH. The mechanism involves sea ice-ocean feedbacks in the northern Nordic Sea and the Labrador Sea (Yin et al., 2021, doi: 10.1126/science.abg1737). The insolation-induced abrupt cooling is accompanied by abrupt changes in precipitation, vegetation from low to high latitudes and by abrupt snow accumulation in northern polar regions. The timing of the simulated abrupt events is highly consistent with those observed in marine and terrestrial records, especially with those observed in high-resolution, absolutely-dated speleothem records in Asia and Europe, which validates the model results and reveals that the astronomically-induced slow variations of insolation could trigger abrupt climate events.  Our results show that the insolation threshold occurred at the end of each interglacial of the past 800,000 years, suggesting its fundamental role in terminating the warm climate conditions of the interglacials. The next insolation threshold will occur in 50,000 years, implying an exceptionally long interglacial ahead naturally speaking, confirming earlier studies using other models. 
Back analysis of the 2023 rockfall event of Martigny (Switzerland): trajectography prediction to future potential hazard along road
Authors: Choanji Tiggi , Chale Antonin , Liu Wei , Fei Li , Noël François , Derron Marc-Henri , Jaboyedoff Michel
Published: March 2024

In this study, we back analysed a rockfall that occurred on a road in Martigny, Switzerland, on 15 March 2023 to determine the trajectory involving block fragments of approximately 43 m3 in total with block maximum 15 m3 and to identify factors that could contribute to future rockfalls in the area. A combination of remote sensing techniques such as LiDAR, photomosaic, and SfM (Structure for Motion) from drone have been performed to reconstruct the rockfall event and to predict the future potential for rockfalls. Our results suggest that the rockfall was caused by a combination of factors, including the  sliding failure mechanism occurred along a surface deeping to the valley with an angle of 54.5o, the presence of jointed and cracks in the rock with high aperture. A series of 10,000 of block propagations using the scarring model algorithm from stnParabel to produce an area of deposition in agreement with observation made in the field, with corresponding energy line from simulation average has an angle of 35.5 o. The trajectories of blocks are attributed to the high damping effects of the ground conditions and the vineyard rock fences which reduced the distance travelled by the falling rock, and the vineyard terraces slope angle lower than the average slope. While rock protections fences have been installed for protection on the falling block area, however there is a need to consider additional measures, as the rock structure in this area is larger than the width of the cliff face, which makes it more susceptible to rockfalls. Such study points out that the calibration of rockfall simulation based on only few blocks is very challenging.
Modelling the consequences of the Siberian traps
Authors: Pierron Antonin , Le Hir Guillaume , Fluteau Frédéric , Goddéris Yves , Maffre Pierre
Published: March 2024

The temporal synchronism between large igneous provinces (LIP) emplacements and mass extinction all along the Phanerozoic reveals a possible link between the two. The release of huge amount of gases during the LIP emplacement is considered to cause major climate and environmental perturbations possibly leading to a biodiversity crisis. However no clear correlation can be drawn between LIP’s properties i.e. the LIP size, the amount of gas released, etc… and the mass extinction severity.Our primary focus was on investigating the consequences of the Siberian traps emplacement which is considered to be responsible of the end-Permian mass extinction. This biodiversity crisis lead to the disappearance of 90% of the marine species and 75% of the terrestrial species. The Siberian volcanism has produced 3 to 5 millions km3 of magma over a period not exceeding 1 Myr according to U-Pb dating. This volcanism is accompanied by the release of huge amount of gases within the atmosphere, notably CO2 and SO2.These gases have two sources : the magmatic degassing and the thermogenic degassing generated by the intrusion of magmas in carbonate-rich or evaporite-rich sediments deposited within the Siberian basin. We propose to explicitly model volcanism by considering both short-term and long-term scale processes along the entire LIP emplacement with different scenarios to mimic the sequence of volcanic and thermogenic gas emissions. For this purpose, we employed the biogeochemical model GEOCLIM to simulate the changes of the ocean in term of temperature and pH caused by the LIP emplacement. This approach enables a detailed exploration of the impact of LIP emplacement on the climate and geochemical cycles.
High-resolution model evaluation with self-supervised neural network approach targeted on severe storms over the Alps
Authors: Corradini Daniele , Acquistapace Claudia , Bigalke Paula
Published: March 2024

As climate change advances, the Alps are expected to experience increasingly intense thunderstorms, which are likely to cause more damage due to floods and landslides. This study aims at evaluating extreme precipitation in weather models over complex terrains where orography causes the hardest challenges to precipitation prediction. Our preliminary analysis assessed which infrared and visible satellite channels are most effective in predicting precipitation, by examining the MSG satellite channels and radar-derived rain products. This assessment considered the influence of terrain by comparing data from flatlands and more complex topographies.We will then use a combination of the selected channels to train a self-supervised machine learning (ML) algorithm for both observations and model outputs. We will exploit the space where cloud classes are identified, known as feature space, in two distinct ways to evaluate the ICON-GLORI model. Firstly, we pinpoint significant cases of extreme precipitation and simulate them using the ICON-GLORI model. This data is then input into the observation-trained ML algorithm to determine the cluster within the feature space where the simulated cases will be categorized. Secondly, we construct a feature space using the ensemble ICON-GLORI model. A showcase of the ML algorithm trained using the cloud optical thickness from 2015 imagery over Germany will demonstrate the potential of this approach.
Thermo-Hydromechanical modelling of poro-(visco-)elasto-plastic reservoir processes using GPUs in Julia    
Authors: Kiss Dániel , Yarushina Viktoriya , Kaus Boris , Minakov Alexander
Published: March 2024

One of the continuing trends in geodynamics is to develop codes that are suitable to model thermo-hydromechanical processes with an increasing level of self-consistency. Developing such models is particularly challenging as some coupling terms can introduce strong non-linearities. We demonstrate that a finite difference discretization combined with pseudo transient solvers are well suited for such problems. Moreover, due to the inherent parallelism of the algorithm and thanks to the novel Julia language and the ParallelStencil.jl package, GPU implementation is not only feasible but also straightforward.Here, we consider fluid flow in a deformable porous medium coupled to thermo-mechanical processes. We present a thermodynamically self-consistent set of governing equations, describing such processes. The governing equations consist of the conservation of mass, momentum, and energy in two phases. One phase represents the solid skeleton, which deforms in a poro-(visco-)elasto-plastic manner. The second phase represents a low viscosity fluid (water, CH, melt), percolating through the solid skeleton, that is described by Darcy’s law. A special process we will investigate is brittle failure of the matrix due to high fluid pressure (hydro-fracturing, fault reactivation, diking).The system of equations is solved numerically, using the pseudo transient method, that is well suited to solve highly non-linear problems, as solving the global equations and iterating the non-linearities can be done at the same time. Moreover, the algorithm requires large number of local and cheap operations, which is ideal for GPU implementation. We will describe the governing equations, their numerical implementation, and show examples of numerical simulations that include mode-1 and mode-2 fractures. We apply the numerical model to study the effects of pore pressure in a siliciclastic reservoir on fault reactivation and associated integrity of cap rocks, and to provide a continuum analogue to magmatic dike emplacement.
Correcting uncertainty estimations of  20th-century reanalysis with independent historic datasets in the arctic
Authors: Scher Sebastian , Schalamon Florina , Abermann Jakob , Trügler Andreas
Published: March 2024

20th-century reanalysis datasets are an invaluable tool for understanding the climate from the beginning of the last century up to the present. They provide a best guess of the atmospheric state, based on a combination of observations and numerical modeling. Contrary to other reanalysis datasets, however, 20th-century reanalysis uses solely surface observations and is thus much less constrained. Consequently, the uncertainty of the analysis is high compared to reanalysis datasets for the satellite era. In the Arctic, where observations are even more sparse than in other parts of the globe, this issue is especially severe. Therefore, a robust estimation of the uncertainty of the reanalysis product is essential. While state of the art 20th-century reanalysis datasets provide some measures of uncertainty, they do not cover the whole uncertainty. We test whether historic independent measurements – that were not assimilated in the reanalysis – can be used to get a more reliable uncertainty estimation of temperature time-series over the last century. For this aim, we use recently digitized in-situ measurements from Alfred Wegener’s last Greenland expedition.  Finally, we assess how the outcome of testing typical hypotheses – such as warming trends or comparison of different periods - is affected when considering the new uncertainty estimations.  
Projected climate change signals for selected hotspot regions using regional climate simulations in southern Africa  
Authors: Remedio Armelle , Weber Torsten , Engelbrecht Francois , Biskop Sophie , Steinkopf Jessica , Padvatan Jonathan , van der Waal Cornelis , Wassenaar Theo , Banda Kawawa , Tlhalerwa Keabile , Perkins Jem
Published: March 2024

Based on the IPCC AR6 Report, the southern African climate change signal is projected to have a rapid warming compared to the global signal. A decreasing trend in the observed mean precipitation can already be detected in most of southern Africa and an increasing trend in heavy precipitation in eastern southern Africa. While some areas are experiencing increased rainfall and flood risks, other regions are facing reduced rainfall and more frequent droughts. These changes are projected to intensify in a warmer world, with significant impacts on water security, food security and biodiversity. 

 In this study, the climate change signal for selected hotspot regions in southern Africa were assessed under the “TIPPing points Explained by Climate Change (TIPPECC)” project embedded in the BMBF-funded SASSCAL 2.0 research program. The temperature and precipitation changes were analyzed from existing high resolution simulations (CORDEX, CORDEX-CORE, CMIP6 Simulations) using 2 regional concentration pathways scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5) during different time periods over case study regions in Namibia, Zambia, Botswana, and South Africa. Based on the initial results from CORDEX-CORE simulations, the ensemble mean of absolute change of precipitation ranges from about -1 to 1 mm/day for both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the near future. The ensemble mean of absolute change of mean 2-m temperature ranges from about 0.5 to 1.7 K in RCP2.6 and about 0.8 to 3.2 K in RCP8.5 in the near future. These regional climate change signals can be used as information for adaptation measures and sustainable development strategies to mitigate the impacts and enhance the resilience of communities and ecosystems in southern Africa, which is a region already water-stressed and with low adaptive capacity. 
The link between river planform confinement and an altered energy gradient: pathways to revitalisation for the Waikanae River, Aotearoa New Zealand
Authors: Tunnicliffe Jon , Bielby Steve , Clearwater Sue
Published: March 2024

Imposed straightening of river course necessarily entails alteration of river gradient. As the amplitude of sinuosity is reduced, the bed slope over the shorter course is steepened. The Waikanae River on New Zealand's North Island was a meandering-to-wandering coastal river that has been subjected to a variety of disturbances, at a range of intensities over time, including gravel extraction and channel re-alignment. This has led to a change in longitudinal bed profile, and therefore a change in stream power profile. In its current configuration, the river experiences persistent aggradation in the lower reaches and there is reduced diversity of river form. Local Māori iwi and catchment community are looking at ways to re-establish sediment transport equilibrium, habitat complexity, and cultural connectivity while maintaining a suitable level of flood protection. In this presentation, we review the trajectory of the system over time and some potential options for restoration, leveraging 2D numerical sediment transport models to provide insights into a potential new morphodynamic and ecological equilibrium regime.
Reduced magmatism in the Turkana Depression: a consequence of inefficient melt transport
Authors: Pusok Adina E. , Li Yuan , Katz Richard F. , Davis Tim , May Dave A.
Published: March 2024

Geophysical studies along the Main Ethiopian Rift and Eastern Rift in Kenya indicate that strain accommodation is dominated by magmatic intrusion rather than tectonic extension (e.g., Ebinger and Casey, 2001). However, it remains unclear how magmatic extension developed in the Turkana Depression, the low-lying, broadly rifted region separating the Ethiopian and East African plateaus. We investigate the rifting dynamics of the Turkana Depression with two-phase flow numerical models of melt transport through the ductile–brittle lithosphere. These models suggest that the pre-rift rheological structure of the lithosphere exerts a counter-intuitive control on melt extraction, which can explain the character of the Turkana region.Recent seismic imaging shows that both the Turkana Depression and the uplifted plateaus are underlain by deep-seated, hot, partially-molten, buoyant mantle that ponds below a thinned plate (Kounoudis et al., 2021). Yet, Ogden et al. (2023) estimated the Moho is 10–20 km shallower throughout the Turkana Depression (~20–25 km) than surrounding regions (~35–40 km). Here, we hypothesise that variations in lithospheric strength across the Turkana Depression and the Ethiopian Plateau have influenced magma transport across the lithosphere and rift development (Morley, 1994). Our models of melt extraction through the ductile–brittle lithosphere incorporate a new poro-viscoelastic–viscoplastic theory with a free surface (Li et al., 2023), designed and validated as a consistent means to model dykes. We initialise models with a source of partial melt in the asthenosphere and investigate how rheology of the overlying lithosphere impacts melt migration to the surface. Experiments are performed for buoyancy-driven magma transport under no tectonic extension, and for low background tectonic extension rates typical to the Turkana Depression (4 mm/yr; e.g., Knappe et al., 2020). Results indicate that both the rheology of lithosphere and extension rate control the efficiency of magma extraction. Magma transport across a thick, elastic lithosphere is more efficient than across a thin, more ductile lithosphere, and increases with extension. Our results suggest that surface volcanism in the Ethiopian Plateau is more likely to occur compared with the Turkana Depression, and at earlier times. ReferencesEbinger and Casey (2001), Geology, DOI: 10.1130/0091-7613(2001)0292.0.co;2Kounoudis et al. (2021), G-cubed, DOI: 10.1029/2021GC009782Ogden et al. (2023), EPSL, DOI: 10.1016/j.epsl.2023.118088Morley (1994), Tectonophys., DOI: 10.1016/0040- 1951(94)90170-8Knappe et al. (2020), JGR: Solid Earth, DOI: 10.1029/2019JB018469Li et al. (2023), GJI, DOI: 10.1093/gji/ggad173
Monster assimilation and adaptation in FRM: High Beck fluvial flood-mitigation case study
Authors: Bokhove Onno
Published: March 2024

Knotters et al. (2024) use the monster metaphor to propose coping strategies to deal with uncertainties in Flood Risk Management (FRM). The uncertainty monster can come in different forms and shapes. Van der Sluijs (2005) considers four coping strategies to deal with the monster of uncertainty, to which Knotters adds two ones dealing with unwelcome uncertainty:Monster exorcism consists of trying to reduce uncertainty even if that is not realisable.
Monster embracement consists of magnifying uncertainties possibly leading to trivialization of uncertainty.
Monster adaptation attempts to adjust uncertainty, rationalise risk mitigation and optimise a chosen utility (function).
Monster assimilation, wherein one learns from uncertainty (quantification) and accordingly makes changes.
Monster denial involves not mentioning or denying uncertainty as part of the strategy.
Monster anesthesia, wherein the monster of uncertainty is prevented by striving for consensus or agreeing about the quality of information.
In a mock case study based on stylising a realistic case of flooding, these coping strategies will be illustrated. High Beck is an urban stream of circa 2000m long with a drop of circa 100m before it flows into a main river. The beck intermittently floods a local neighbourhood next to a larger river, when its final culverted course is also blocked by high water levels in the river and the river’s new flood-defence walls (protecting against 1:200 year river floods). Using the graphical cost-effectiveness tool of Bokhove et al. (2020), three flood-mitigation measures (canal storage, upstream bunds, downstream storage) combine into five scenarios which provide protection against 1:50 year return-period beck floods. Each measure has co-benefits and there are associated breach probabilities and damage costs, to assimilate uncertainty. Depending on the choice of utility function, how do we value the monsters and fairies involved, in a just and science-based decision-making process, and choose the “best” solution among the five flood-mitigation scenarios? The discussion, without as-yet final answers, will also highlight the difficulties in obtaining the probabilities and damage/repair costs required for making (sufficiently) informed decisions.Bokhove, M. Kelmanson, G. Piton and J.M. Tacnet 2020: A cost-effectiveness protocol for flood-mitigation plans based on Leeds’ Boxing Day 2015 floods Water 12(3), 652
Knotters, O. Bokhove, R. Lamb and P.M. Poortvliet 2024: How to cope with uncertainty monsters in flood risk management. Water Prisms. Cambridge University Press. In press.
J. van der Sluijs 2005: Uncertainty as a monster in the science-policy interface: four coping strategies. Water Science & Technology 52, 87–92.
Isotopic characterization of methane emissions in Malaga, Spain
Authors: Ojeda Lucía , Maazallahi Hossein , Vadillo Iñaki , van der Veen Carina , Castro-Gámez Antonio F. , Röckmann Thomas
Published: March 2024

The reduction of methane emissions from energy, agriculture, and waste sectors presents a significant opportunity for making near-term strides in climate mitigation. To accomplish this, there is a pressing need for methods that facilitate the quantification of emissions.
In Malaga province, Spain, the main sources of methane emissions, as estimated through model-based calculations, are predominantly associated with the waste and agricultural sectors. Natural gas, albeit playing a minor role, is mainly used in the industrial sector. However, the absence of ground-based measurements, such as methane concentration, isotopic attribution, and emission rates measured, poses a significant challenge to the improvement of local and regional inventories.
This study aims to characterize the isotopic signatures (δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4) of diverse methane sources in the province of Malaga during two field campaigns in April and September 2023. Methane plumes emitted from anthropogenic sources, such as wastewater treatment plants (WWTP), landfills, piggeries, manure, biowaste, combustion and biogas plants, among others, were identified through mobile surveys using a Methane/Ethane Mid-Infrared Laser Absorption Spectroscopy analyzer. Collected air samples from the plumes underwent subsequent isotope analysis by gas chromatography isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC-IRMS) to characterize δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4. The isotopic signatures of the sources were determined using a Keeling plot approach.
Emissions from the waste sector display a variety of microbial δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 signatures. For WWTPs and landfills, δ13C-CH4 signatures range between -58.9 and -48.2 ‰, and δD-CH4 between -324.1 and -257.4 ‰. There is notably more variability in the WWTP signals. Landfill CH4 exhibits lower δ13C-CH4 values and higher δD-CH4 values, in some cases showing microbial oxidation processes when comparing the active and closed sectors within the same landfill. Biowaste from olive mill and meat production yields CH4 with δ13C-CH4 between -49.3 and -47.2 ‰ and δD-CH4 between -315.8 and -286.2 ‰. Two agricultural sources were investigated: piggeries with δ13C-CH4 between -51.9 and -56.1 ‰ and δD-CH4 between -344.6 and -304.6 ‰; and their associated manure with δ13C-CH4 between -52.8 and -49.8 ‰ and δD-CH4 between -327.3 and -318.1 ‰. Furthermore, a biogas plant using pig liquid manure as feedstock (δ13C-CH4 between -55.9 and -44.3 ‰; δD-CH4 between -235.9 and -185.9 ‰), a combustion plant utilizing olive mill waste (δ13C-CH4 between -46.2 and -41.8 ‰; δD-CH4 between -273.9 and -148.4 ‰), and a pig slaughterhouse engaged in meat production (δ13C-CH4 and δD-CH4 signatures of -40.0 and -139.6 ‰, respectively) all provide evidence of fossil fuel usage in the operations of these facilities.
Modelling of glacial melt water erosion of the overburden of a HLW over 1 million years
Authors: Brandt Matthias , Carl-Dworschak Anton , Jockel Andreas , Kahnt Rene
Published: March 2024

The site selection procedure in Germany is searching for a site with the best possible safety for a repository for high-level waste (HLW). The integrity of the overburden is crucial in the assessment of the best possible safety (StandAG §23 (5), para.3). Beyond the safe inclusion in the selected host rock for a HLW repository, a sufficient stability of the overlaying overburden horizons must be ensured. Erosion by glaciation induced processes are but one of the potential threats to the stability of these overburden horizons. The research project presented here is funded by BASE under the grant number FKZ 4721F10401.Within the research project “Evaluation of methods and models to predict the protective function of the overburden in Germany over the period of 1 Ma” (MeMoDeck) a framework to assess the risks introduced by glacial erosion that are to be expected within 1 million years was developed. As an indication of this, the erosion processes, prevailing during the Pleistocene, have been analysed with respect to the extent of the erosion depth introduced by them. The largest depths are attained to incisions by subglacial meltwater transport in the form of tunnel valleys. The authors employed a combined modelling approach, which includes a three-dimensional deterministic numerical modelling of the tunnel valley genesis with FLAC3D and a multivariate probabilistic modelling with GoldSim to account for the remarkable uncertainties over 1 Ma. The uncertainties result from the lack of data with respect to hydraulic conditions during the melting of the ice sheet and the variability of the erosion resistance of the geological horizons of the overburden, which overlies the respective host rock. The authors determine the depth of a prospective tunnel valley by a simulation at well-constrained geological and melt water conditions by the deterministic FLAC3D model.The results from the deterministic modelling with Flac3D are the basis of the simulation within the probabilistic model with GoldSim, which relaxes the modelling constraints towards melt water and geological properties using statistical distribution functions for these quantities.The results of the modelling will be presented and the most influential parameters towards the final depths of the overburden incisions will be discussed.
Increasing climate change changes household medical expenditures
Authors: Zhu Dianyu , Liu Miaomiao , Li Ruoqi , Shan Yuli , Zhang Haofan , Bi Jun , Hubacek Klaus
Published: March 2024

Climate change is exacerbating global disease risks, which will change household medical expenditures. Employing machine learning techniques and fine-scale bank transaction data, this study explores the changing household medical expenditures in 290 Chinese cities under four SSP scenarios (SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5) and further evaluates the adaptive impacts from socio-economic and physiological adaptations. The results show that the increasing temperature is projected to decrease future medical expenses in China by 5.24% (SSP1-2.6) to 5.60% (SSP5-8.5) in 2060. Cities exhibit differentiated sensitivity to increasing temperatures. Richer cities have enhanced resilience to high temperatures, and cold regions demonstrate less vulnerability to extreme cold weather. Physiological adaptation to climate change can significantly reduce medical expenditures by 27.6% by 2060. Meanwhile, socio-economic adaptation is expected to amplify national total medical expenses by 22.5% in 2060 under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Our study incorporates adaptation into the prediction of future medical expenditures in China, aiming to assist cities in devising tailored climate adaptation strategies to alleviate the household economic strain induced by climate change. 
Multidecadal characterization of biogenic compounds and nutrients in Antarctic ice-free coastal lake sediments
Authors: Argiriadis Elena , Sorarù Luca , Colozza Noemi , Giannelli Moneta Benedetta , Arduini Fabiana , Cavaliere Chiara , Vecchiato Marco
Published: March 2024

Although about 98% of the Antarctic continent is covered by an ice sheet, seasonal lakes and small streams resulting from ice and snow melting are formed during the Austral summer. These ice-free areas, mainly located in coastal sites, provide a fertile environment for the development of microbial life. Isolation and extreme conditions in terms of light, temperature and nutrient availability generate peculiar ecosystems in the lake waters, characterized mainly by the presence of planktonic and/or benthonic microorganisms, especially cyanobacteria and microalgae. The water budget of coastal lakes is regulated only by melting and evaporation/sublimation, so that the organic matter from the catchment and the lake biomass is buried in sediments, which therefore represent a precious archive for the study of seasonal and interannual changes in the hydrology and primary productivity of the lakes. The high sensitivity of these environments to local climatic shifts is key to understanding how deglaciated areas may respond to larger scale changes. The lakes considered in this proposal are all located close to Terra Nova Bay, in the vicinity of the Italian research station Mario Zucchelli. Sediment samples from the same lakes were collected repeatedly in the period from 1990 to 2014 in the framework of the Italian National Antarctic Research Program (PNRA). So far, no study was ever performed on the temporal evolution of the lakes. The sediment samples analyzed here make up a 25-year long series that would encompass medium-term changes in the ecologic conditions of such sensitive environments. Samples were made available by the Antarctic Environmental Specimen Bank (BCAA, University of Genoa), associated to the Italian Antarctic National Museum.Macroscopic changes were observed in coastal lakes in Northern Victoria Land over the last few years, regarding their extension that exhibited an overall decreasing trend that found no explanation yet. Organic markers buried in sediments could help identifying the factors that are driving the observed transformations and evaluating the sensitivity of these ecosystems to future change. Here, we investigate changes in the lipid composition through untargeted and targeted analysis of apolar and polar lipids using GC-MS and UHPLC-HR-MS/MS.In order to complete the information gathered through the characterization of lipids, the study of nutrient availability, here performed through the detection of e.g. zinc ions in the range of 0.1-2 ppm using a paper-based printed electrochemical sensor and a miniaturized 3D printed extraction system for soil analysis, to understand if a correlation exists between the variation of nutrient content and lipid biomarkers and small to large-scale changes.
When co-existence means separation – environmental niche partitioning of ecologically similar zooplankton species in the warming Arctic
Authors: Gluchowska Marta , Patula Weronika , Balazy Kaja , Trudnowska Emilia
Published: March 2024

One of the fundamental challenges in modern studies of zooplankton ecology at high latitudes is to understand the processes that promote co-existence of morphologically and ecologically related species with different origin and that maintain high overall zooplankton diversity in a warming Arctic. The increased inflow of warm Atlantic Water into the Arctic Ocean is making marine ecosystems increasingly resemble those of the North Atlantic. Consequently, a mixture of resident and advected species coexist over large areas of the European Arctic. In this study, pairs of taxonomically and ecologically related species (small-sized copepods, large calanoid copepods, amphipods, euphausiids, and chaetognaths), essential for the functioning of Arctic ecosystems were thoroughly studied with regard to their existence and degree of niche separation of studied pairs. Individual species within each pair are characterized by different centers of distribution (Arctic or boreal). The design of our study, covering three core hydrographical regions of the Polar Front on the West Spitsbergen Shelf, was set up to study the pairs of sibling species that either co-occur in the same water (Hornsund fjord, Spitsbergen) or thrive in the water mass they originate from (Arctic and Atlantic domains). Our results demonstrate that vertical abundance distributions in each pair of species differ when species occur separately (waters from each particulate species originate) or from the vertical distribution patterns  when they co-exist. This supports the hypothesis that environmental niche separation exists in sibling species of marine zooplankton sharing the same environment and highlights its role as a mechanism reducing interspecific competition.
An efficient workflow for airborne electromagnetic data processing for advanced applications.
Authors: Deleersnyder Wouter , Hermans Thomas , Dudal David
Published: March 2024

Airborne electromagnetics made its first successful entry into mineral exploration applications, mainly by interpreting anomalies in the data. Airborne EM methods will increasingly be used for more advanced large-scale applications, such as mapping the fresh saltwater interface. Every step in the data interpretation is crucial in this regard. We believe the state-of-the-art (such as in [1]) is a good starting point for an initial data interpretation, though not the endpoint. We propose a workflow for airborne EM processing, where the current state-of-the-art may be too limited for your advanced applications. It consists out of four steps:1. First processing with Quasi(or pseudo)-2D/3D inversion (with your favourite or typical smooth inversion scheme, such as in [1])2. If the sharpness of the obtained inversion model is inappropriate, perform a tunable regularization with the inversion model from step 1 as the initial model. This can be achieved with wavelet-based regularization schemes [2], where prior information can be incorporated by the choice of the wavelet or, in the absence of prior information, the non-uniqueness can be assessed with the ensemble approach.3. Where is multidimensionality a possible issue? In steps 1 and 2, we have used a 1D forward approximation, potentially yielding multidimensionality issues. An appraisal method, such as [3], enables the assessment of an inversion model obtained with 1D forward approximation for areas that do not fit the true multidimensionality of the observed data because it deviates from the 1D assumption.3. Re-interpret zones with significant multidimensionality with either full 3D simulations or a surrogate model [4], replacing the computationally demanding 3D full simulations. [1] Siemon, B., Auken, E., & Christiansen, A. V. (2009). Laterally constrained inversion of helicopter-borne frequency-domain electromagnetic data. Journal of Applied Geophysics, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jappgeo.2007.11.003.[2] Deleersnyder, W., Maveau, B., Hermans, T., & Dudal, D. (2023). Flexible quasi-2D inversion of time-domain AEM data, using a wavelet-based complexity measure. Geophysical Journal International,  https://doi.org/10.1093/gji/ggad032.[3] Deleersnyder, W., Dudal, D., & Hermans, T. (2022). Novel airborne em image appraisal tool for imperfect forward modeling. Remote Sensing, https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14225757.[4] Deleersnyder, W., Dudal, D., & Hermans, T. (2023, February). Machine learning assisted fast forward 3D modelling for time-domain electromagnetic induction data–lessons from a simplified case. In EGU General Assembly 2023, Location: Vienna, Austria, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu23-12015.
Assessment of extreme precipitation risks using multi-model climate projections: focusing on the Chungju-Dam basin in South Korea
Authors: Kim Sunghun , Heo Jun-Haeng
Published: March 2024

This research focuses on the estimation of extreme precipitation quantiles using climate change scenario data from the 6th Assessment Report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The study involved the analysis of precipitation data from 23 global climate models (GCMs), with a final selection of 10 models that best represented the characteristics of extreme precipitation in South Korea, based on statistical measures against observed rainfall data. Particularly, precipitation data from 71 observation points within the Chungju-Dam basin, a region of hydrological significance and susceptibility to extreme weather events, were collected for analyzing climate change impacts.Furthermore, the study conducted the regional frequency analysis (index-flood method) to estimate rainfall quantiles, employing the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution and L-moment method for parameter estimation. The analysis resulted in the development of a multi-model ensemble (MME) incorporating the 10 selected GCMs and 4 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. This approach facilitated a comprehensive understanding of potential future climate changes, considering emission trajectories and socio-economic changes. Additionally, the study quantitatively evaluated the impact of climate change and associated uncertainties in the region, which is essential for devising adaptation and mitigation strategies in response to climate change conditions, particularly in areas susceptible to extreme weather events. This research provides valuable insights into the understanding of climate-induced extreme weather events and offers guidance for policymakers and environmental planners in preparing for the impacts of global climate change.
Provenance analysis of the Permo-Triassic Lantschfeld quartzite in the Austroalpine of the Radstädter Tauern, European Eastern Alps
Authors: Rembe Johannes , Sobel Edward , Schneider Susanne , Gerdes Axel
Published: March 2024

The Permo-Triassic shallow marine to continental deposits of the Alpine Verrucano and the Lantschfeld quartzite discordantly overly the Variscan basement in the Eastern Alps. The late Permian Alpine Verrucano is characterized by fine- to coarse-clastic (meta-)sediments with local calcareous and/or conglomeratic layers. The well sorted and more mature, early Triassic Lantschfeld quartzite is carbonate free, shows pale green to white coloring and rare conglomeratic layers. Both provide an important detrital record of post-Variscan landscape evolution. Investigations on non metamorphic Permo-Triassic units of the Northern Calcareous Alps (Haas et al., 2020) provided zircons connected to processes of the Pan-African, Cadomian and Variscan Orogenies. However, they show large disparities between different nappes. This underlines the varied character of the Variscan basement units, and a better understanding may provide interesting hints for the assignment of tectonic slivers to certain nappe complexes. In this contribution we present detrital age spectra from the metamorphic Lantschfeld quartzite of the Lower Austroalpine Radstadt Nappe and the Upper Austroalpine Silvretta-Seckau Nappe System. By combing detrital zircon U-Pb dating with detrital rutile U-Pb and rutile geochemistry data, we can better trace the metamorphic history of the Variscan basement units contributing to the early Triassic basin fill. Haas I, Eichinger S, Haller D, Fritz H, Nievoll J, Mandl M, Hippler D and Hauzenberger C 2020 Gondwana Research 77 204–22
ACC Volume Transport: A Geodetic Analysis via Satellite Data
Authors: Vargas Alemañy Juan Adrián , Vigo Aguiar Isabel , García García David , Zid Ferdous
Published: March 2024

Geostrophic currents, driven by the Coriolis and pressure gradient forces, are crucial for understanding ocean circulation. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) in the Southern Ocean, encircling Antarctica, has substantial global impact, and its volume transport (VT) remains challenging to measure. We utilize satellite data, combining Altimetry and Gravity Satellite missions, to estimate VT within the ACC. Our study offers a comprehensive spatial and temporal analysis, encompassing barotropic and baroclinic VT components. We validate our results with in-situ measurements from the Drake Passage. Our analysis reveals a steady spatial VT of 210.44 ± 3.4 Sv, with maxima near critical choke points. Temporally, we identify a mean VT of 15.86 ± 0.05 Sv per 1º grid cell, a linear trend of -0.007 ± 0.002 Sv per month, and significant seasonal and biannual signals. Zonal VT predominantly influences total VT, while meridional VT remains near zero. The baroclinic component drives low-frequency variations, while the barotropic component controls high-frequency variations. We propose a specific ACC zonal VT of 201.63 ± 0.71 Sv. In summary, our satellite-based approach offers valuable insights into ACC VT. This methodological extension enhances our understanding of the ACC's ocean circulation dynamics, showcasing the utility and robustness of satellite data in oceanographic research.
Physical mechanisms for the summertime high-latitude atmospheric teleconnection patterns and the related Eurasian and East Asian climates
Authors: Kim Jin-yong , Seo Kyong-Hwan
Published: March 2024

Summertime atmospheric teleconnection patterns over Eurasia have a significant influence on regional weather and climate. Despite extensive studies on the subtropical patterns, the high-latitude counterpart has received relatively less attention. This study proposes physical mechanisms for the formation and maintenance of the dominant high-latitude teleconnection pattern. The formation of the pattern is associated with variability in synoptic-scale eddy activity due to the meridional gradient of sea surface temperature anomalies in the vicinity of the Gulf Stream, causing a meridional shift of the central axis of storm track at the exit of Atlantic jet. The resultant convergence of transient vorticity fluxes to the west of the British Isles induces low-frequency cyclonic circulation anomalies and continued propagation of Rossby waves downstream along northern Eurasia. Once these circulation anomalies are formed, the subsequent latent heat-related diabatic anomalies over the northern Eurasian landmass act as another source of Rossby waves to maintain the teleconnection pattern. Regional temperature and precipitation variability is closely linked to the wave pattern along a route through northern Eurasia, and even precipitation over the East Asian summer monsoon region is influenced by the teleconnection pattern.
Vlasiator in 6D: magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling upgrades and automatic global flux rope identification
Authors: Pfau-Kempf Yann ,   Vlasiator team
Published: March 2024

We present recent and upcoming upgrades to the coupled ionosphere model now included in the global hybrid-Vlasov magnetospheric simulation Vlasiator. The handling of the magnetic field at the boundary has been corrected. The model used to obtain the parameterized precipitating electron fluxes is being upgraded to a more modern and flexible approach, and that new model is applied to obtain the precipitating proton fluxes from their velocity distribution function at the coupling radius in the hybrid-Vlasov domain.Benefiting from the development of efficient runtime tracing of the magnetic field at the highest resolution, magnetic connectivity information is available at every point in the simulation, at every step. This information allows fast identification of the major domains of the near-Earth environment. Using magnetic field connectivity information we also introduce a novel approach to automatically and comprehensively detect magnetic flux rope structures of any scale and spatial orientation in the whole simulation domain.
Spatially variable sea level response to erosion and deposition in Aotearoa New Zealand
Authors: Ruetenik Gregory , Jansen John D. , Ferrier Ken L.
Published: March 2024

Surface processes alter sea level by warping Earth’s surface and modifying the gravitational field. Recent studies show that paleo-sea level indicators are depressed by sedimentation near major depocenters, such as the Mississippi and Indus deltas, and raised by the erosion of rock in rapidly eroding coastal regions such as Taiwan. The South Island of Aotearoa New Zealand poses an interesting combination of these endmembers because the Southern Alps are eroding rapidly on the west coast, while high sediment loads are deposited along the eastern margin. Here, we use a global, gravitationally self-consistent sea-level model to demonstrate that sediment redistribution on the South Island drastically alters interpretations of sea level change since the Last Interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage 5e) by as much as +100 m on the west coast and –30 m on the east coast. The influence of sediment redistribution on sea level is highly sensitive to geodynamic properties such as effective elastic thickness, which we reconcile using the abundance of paleo-shoreline markers available.