Updated Surveillance Metrics and History of the COVID-19 Pandemic (2020-2023) in Canada: Longitudinal Trend Analysis (Preprint)
Authors: Wu Scott A , Soetikno Alan G , Ozer Egon A , Welch Sarah B , Liu Yingxuan , Havey Robert J , Murphy Robert L , Hawkins Claudia , Mason Maryann , Post Lori A , Achenbach Chad J , Lundberg Alexander L 
Published: October 2023

BACKGROUND

This study provides an update on the status of the COVID-19 pandemic in Canada, building upon our initial analysis conducted in 2020 by incorporating an additional 2 years of data.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to (1) summarize the status of the pandemic in Canada when the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the end of the public health emergency for the COVID-19 pandemic on May 5, 2023; (2) use dynamic and genomic surveillance methods to describe the history of the pandemic in Canada and situate the window of the WHO declaration within the broader history; and (3) provide historical context for the course of the pandemic in Canada.

METHODS

This longitudinal study analyzed trends in traditional surveillance data and dynamic panel estimates for COVID-19 transmissions and deaths in Canada from June 2020 to May 2023. We also used sequenced SARS-CoV-2 variants from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) to identify the appearance and duration of variants of concern. For these sequences, we used Nextclade nomenclature to collect clade designations and Pangolin nomenclature for lineage designations of SARS-CoV-2. We used 1-sided <i>t</i> tests of dynamic panel regression coefficients to measure the persistence of COVID-19 transmissions around the WHO declaration. Finally, we conducted a 1-sided <i>t</i> test for whether provincial and territorial weekly speed was greater than an outbreak threshold of 10. We ran the test iteratively with 6 months of data across the sample period.

RESULTS

Canada’s speed remained below the outbreak threshold for 8 months by the time of the WHO declaration ending the COVID-19 emergency of international concern. Acceleration and jerk were also low and stable. While the 1-day persistence coefficient remained statistically significant and positive (1.074; <i>P</i><.001), the 7-day coefficient was negative and small in magnitude (–0.080; <i>P</i>=.02). Furthermore, shift parameters for either of the 2 most recent weeks around May 5, 2023, were negligible (0.003 and 0.018, respectively, with <i>P</i> values of .75 and .31), meaning the clustering effect of new COVID-19 cases had remained stable in the 2 weeks around the WHO declaration. From December 2021 onward, Omicron was the predominant variant of concern in sequenced viral samples. The rolling 1-sided <i>t</i> test of speed equal to 10 became entirely insignificant from mid-October 2022 onward.

CONCLUSIONS

While COVID-19 continues to circulate in Canada, the rate of transmission remained well below the threshold of an outbreak for 8 months ahead of the WHO declaration. Both standard and enhanced surveillance metrics confirm that the pandemic had largely ended in Canada by the time of the WHO declaration. These results can inform future public health interventions and strategies in Canada, as well as contribute to the global understanding of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic.