Traffic fatality trends in four continents based micro level data for three decades
Authors: M. N. Al-Madani Hashim 
Published: November 2015

Traffic fatality data for four continents, namely Asia, Africa, Europe and North America, are analysed and modelled here. The analysis is based on gathered traffic death frequencies and rates for over three decades considering 176 countries within the four continents. The predicted values for the coming decade, based on best regression fits, are also analysed. The data sums to over 28,000 records. Official publications, well-known databases, journal papers, official web-sites and personal correspondance were manily employed in collecting the necessary data. While fatlity and vehicular data for the developed countries and few other less developed countries take no time to compile; those for most of the other countries are highly time consuming and distracting, due to the presence of conflicting data, to be processed. It took over three years to gather such data. Such large gathered data for such long period of time are yet not observed in the literature using the common means. Moreover, while future trends of traffic fatalities in Europe and North America are very common and widely presented; that in Asia and Africa are very scarce and lack accuracy due to lack of long-term data. The results indicate that traffic fatalities in Asia and Africa raised from 153 thousands and 46 thousands during 1980 to 384 thousands and 90 thousands deaths during 2011, in respective order; that in Europe and North America dropped from 97 thousands and 57 thousands deaths to 39 thousands and 33 thousands, respectively. It is also intresting to mention that the traffic fatalities in the Arab world sharply increased from 22,145 during 1980 to 37,736 during 2011. It is expected to pass 45 thousands deaths during 2021. The traffic fatalities in the four continents will add up to just 790 thousands considering a flat rate of adjustment factor for underreporting. This however raises serious question regarding underreporting of the official records. Nevertheless, while the roadway deaths in Europe and North America is expected to drop by around 40 and 20%, respectively by the year 2025, according to the models developed here, that in Asia and Africa is expected to increase by around 15 and 70%, respectively. The fatality rates per population followed a very similar pattern, but steeper, of the fatality frequency. There are many contributory factors leading to such high traffic deaths in Asia and Africa. These include, among many other factors, lack of measurable long term safety plans on real ground, inconsistent handling of traffic safety strategies, poor involvement of NGO’s, poor coordination between various stake holders, poor research involvement in the traffic safety crises and limited post-accident rehabilitation centres.

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