bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Structure de marché, incitations à investir et réglementation dans le secteur des télécommunications en Afrique subsaharienne
Authors: Founanou Mathurin
Published: September 2015

Dans cet article, nous analysons la structure optimale du marché dans le secteur des télécommunications dans le cadre du processus de privatisation et de libéralisation. Dans de nombreux pays en Afrique subsaharienne, les marchés des télécommunications ont été ouverts à de nouveaux opérateurs pour instaurer la concurrence. Le gouvernement peut contrôler l’entrée de nouveaux opérateurs en vendant aux enchères les droits d’exploitation. Deux situations sont concevables à l’issue de la procédure : un régime de monopole ou un régime oligopolistique. Nous mettons en évidence les effets des politiques de réglementation dans chaque situation en l’absence et en présence de la corruption du régulateur. Nous montrons que l’amélioration du bien-être social dépend des décisions d’investissement des entreprises, de l’intensité de la concurrence et du coût des fonds publics.
Effets des innovations technologiques et organisationnelles sur la productivité : une extension du modèle CDM
Authors: Hajjem Olfa , Garrouste Pierre , Ayadi Mohamed
Published: September 2015

L’objectif de ce papier est d’étudier l’efficacité de l’activité d’innovation des entreprises françaises, à partir des Enquêtes Communautaires sur l’Innovation 2006. Nos résultats suggèrent, en premier lieu, que les décisions d’investir en R&D et d’acquérir des machines et des logiciels dépendent de l’exposition de l’entreprise à la concurrence internationale, de son recours à la protection par les droits de propriété, de sa taille et de l’impulsion par la demande. Les montants investis sont déterminés par l’appartenance à un groupe, la coopération technologique, les sources d’information et le financement public. En deuxième lieu, il est avéré que les différents types d’innovation (en produit, en procédé, organisationnelle et en marketing) ne sont pas déterminés de la même manière et qu’il y a une interdépendance et une simultanéité entre les innovations technologiques et non technologiques. En troisième lieu, nos résultats montrent que les innovations surtout en procédés, organisationnelle et en marketing ont des effets significatifs et positifs sur la productivité des entreprises françaises. Les innovations en produit et en procédé favorisent davantage la productivité si elles sont accompagnées par des innovations organisationnelles et en marketing et vice versa.
Brevet et innovation : comment restaurer l’efficience dynamique des brevets ?
Authors: Le Bas Christian , Pénin Julien
Published: September 2015

La justification habituelle du brevet d’invention est basée sur ses bonnes propriétés dynamiques. Au prix d’une inefficience statique, le brevet incite les entreprises à innover et à diffuser leurs connaissances et donc encourage l’innovation et accroît le bien-être à long terme. Ce travail, basé sur une revue de la littérature récente, montre que le brevet peut pourtant avoir un impact négatif significatif sur la dynamique d’innovation. Nous montrons que cela est dû, non pas aux propriétés intrinsèques du système de brevet, mais plutôt à certaines de ses dérives qui font qu’un trop grand nombre de brevets sont délivrés dans certains secteurs et que l’information brevet peut être de mauvaise qualité. Lorsque ces deux éléments sont combinés, ils expliquent en grande partie les problèmes générés par les systèmes de brevet contemporains tels que le « hold-up » (les « trolls de brevet »), la tragédie des anticommuns (« royalty stacking ») et les coûts de transaction élevés sur les marchés des technologies. Nous concluons en discutant des réformes qui permettraient de faire en sorte que le brevet redevienne pleinement un instrument d’efficience dynamique.
Processing of Queries with Fuzzy Similarity Domains
Authors: Carrasquel Soraya O. , Monascal Ricardo R. , Rodríguez Rosseline , Tineo Leonid
Published: September 2015

There are some data models and query languages based on the application of fuzzy set theory. Their goal is to provide more flexible DBMS that allow the expression of user preferences in querying as well as imprecision in data. In this sense, the FuzzyEER data model proposes four kinds of fuzzy attributes. One of them, named Type 3, consists of a set of labels provided of a similarity relation. An extension of SQL, named FSQL, allows the expression and use of fuzzy attributes. Nevertheless, FSQL does not allow using fuzzy attributes in some clauses based on data ordering, due to semantics problem. This chapter presents a solution for this problem in case of Type 3 fuzzy attributes. Main contribution consists in how to process queries involving such attributes by means of an extension to an existing RDBMS. Formal semantics, grammar, catalogue definition and translation schemas are contained in this chapter.
Fuzzy XQuery
Authors: Labbad José Ángel , Monascal Ricardo R. , Tineo Leonid
Published: September 2015

Traditional database systems and languages are very rigid. XML data and query languages are not the exception. Fuzzy set theory is an appropriate tool for solving this problem. In this sense, Fuzzy XQuery was proposed as an extension of the XQUERY standard. This language defines the xs:truth datatype, the xml:truth attribute and allows the definition and use of fuzzy terms in queries. The main goal of this chapter is to show a high coupling implementation of Fuzzy XQuery within eXist-db, an open source XML DBMS. This extension strategy could also be used with other similar tools. This chapter also presents a statistical performance analysis of the extended fuzzy query engine using the XMark benchmark with user defined fuzzy terms. The study presents promising results.
Query Languages in NoSQL Databases
Authors: Holanda Maristela , Souza Jane Adriana
Published: September 2015

This chapter aims to investigate how NoSQL (Not Only SQL) databases provide query language and data retrieval mechanisms. Users attest to many advantages in using the NoSQL databases for specific applications, however, they also report that querying and retrieving data easily continues to be a problem. The NoSQL operations require that, during the project, the queries must be thought of as built-in application codes. The authors intend to contribute to the investigation of querying, considering different types of NoSQL databases.
Adding Context into Classification Reasoning Based on Good Classification Tests
Authors: Naidenova Xenia
Published: September 2015

In this chapter, classification reasoning is considered. The concept of good classification test lies in the foundation of this reasoning. Inferring good classification tests from data sets is the inductive phase of reasoning resulted in generating implicative and functional dependencies supporting the deductive phase of reasoning. An algorithm of inferring good classification tests is given with the decomposition of it into subtasks allowing to choose sub-contexts for each obtained dependency and to control sub-contexts during both deductive and inductive phases of classification reasoning.
Online Spatial HIV/AIDS Surveillance and Monitoring System for Nigeria
Authors: Idowu Peter Adebayo
Published: September 2015

HIV/AIDS has now become a big threat to the world generally, most especially the Sub-Saharan Africa region as it continues to increase drastically in the region. This disease has increased the poverty level of the countries in the region. In Nigeria, millions of people infected with this deadly disease are in their productive years between 15 and 49. This surge is having a negative effect on Nigeria and other Sub-Saharan Africa countries as it lowers life expectancy, slows population growth and social and economic effect on the country. Presently, health officers in Nigeria primarily rely on monitoring HIV/AIDS prevalence only among women attending antenatal clinics as that is the only source of getting data from HIV/AIDS patients. In the country, there is no electronic HIV/AIDS database, no electronic means of capturing HIV/AIDS data and no electronic monitoring of HIV/AIDS patients. This chapter presents a prototypical HIV/AIDS surveillance and monitoring system and the prototype was developed using Dreamweaver, PHP and MySQL. With this system, users could spatially query the pattern and distribution of any HIV/AIDS disease using any known location. Also, queries based on occupation, level of education, and gender among other things are possible with this system. Though the system was developed for Nigeria, it can also be extended to other countries within Sub-Saharan Africa region.
Pain Assessment through Facial Expression
Authors: Singh Sanjay Kumar , Rastogi V. , Singh S. K.
Published: September 2015

Pain, assumed to be the fifth vital sign, is an important symptom that needs to be adequately assessed in heath care. The visual changes reflected on the face of a person in pain may be apparent for only a few seconds and occur instinctively. Tracking these changes is a difficult and time-consuming process in a clinical setting. This is why it is motivating researchers and experts from medical, psychology and computer fields to conduct inter-disciplinary research in capturing facial expressions. This chapter contains a comprehensive review of technologies in the study of facial expression along with its application in pain assessment. The facial expressions of pain in children's (0-2 years) and in non-communicative patients need to be recognized as they are of utmost importance for proper diagnosis. Well designed computerized methodologies would streamline the process of patient assessment, increasing its accessibility to physicians and improving quality of care.
Developing SMS Health Messages for Pregnant Indigenous Australians Using Persuasive Technology
Authors: George Reece
Published: September 2015

While developed nations search for solutions to pay for the increasing financial burden of healthcare, developing nations provide a way forward in the deployment of innovative healthcare. Mobile SMS programs are low-cost and effective in supporting health services. Having been successfully used to address lifestyle factors directly affecting maternal outcomes, such as: smoking, physical activity, nutrition, substance use and psychological stressors. Of primary importance in the development of SMS behavior change programs to support the maternal healthcare of Indigenous Australian women, is cultural appropriateness; specifically, the cultural notion of ‘women's business'. In traditional Indigenous Australian culture, it is senior women who teach young women about maternal health and it is considered offensive for anyone other than a senior woman to instruct women on such matters. This discussion will consider the challenges in developing maternal healthcare SMS messages that aim to satisfy both the culturally sensitive requirements in addition to the medical requirements.
A Clinical Decision Support System
Authors: Akaichi Jalel , Mhadhbi Linda
Published: September 2015

Inadequate response and bad decisions taken by mobile physicians may lead to bad consequences threatening rescued people lives. Moreover, there are growing information that overload physicians when facing urgent cases. In order to facilitate the on road decision making for the mobile physicians, we propose a clinical decision support system based on an ontology driven approach for effective emergency management that allows finding out as quickly as possible the needed medical resources and reserves the most suitable health care institutions according to the patient state. Specifically, this work permits to localize rapidly the closets health care institution to the emergency scene, to find out the needed medical resources to deal with the patient first diagnosis, to match the localized health care institutions that contain the necessary medical resources to fulfil the patient determined needs, and to rank medical institutions, according to urgent case requirements, in order to allow the mobile physician to perform the adequate choice of one of them.
Flexural Property and In Situ Observation of Carbon Milled Fiber Added Plain Woven Carbon Fiber/Epoxy Resin Composite
Authors: Katogi Hideaki , Takemura Kenichi
Published: September 2015

In this study, effect of Carbon Milled Fiber (CMF) addition on flexural fracture property of Carbon Fiber Reinforced Plastics (CFRP) was investigated. The CMF additive amounts to the epoxy resin were 0.5wt%, 0.8wt%, 1.0wt% and 1.2wt%. Static three point flexural test was conducted based on Japanese Industrial Standard (JIS) K 7074. The in situ observation of CMF added CFRP was conducted by using high-speed camera. As a result, following conclusions were obtained. In case that CMF additive amount was below 0.8wt%, flexural strength and flexural modulus of CFRP increased with an increase of CMF additive amount. In case of that CMF additive amount was above 1.0wt%, flexural strength and flexural modulus of the CFRP decreased compared with those of CMF 0.8wt% added CFRP. From in situ observation, crack initiation occurred at external layer on tension side of non CMF and CMF added CFRP. After crack initiation, delaminations of non CMF and CMF added CFRP were found. The delamination size of CMF 0.8wt% added CFRP was smaller than that of non CMF and CMF 1.2wt% added CFRP. Therefore, flexural property of CFRP was improved because delamination of CFRP was prevented by CMF 0.8wt%.
Control of Homeostasis and Dendritic Cell Survival by the GTPase RhoA
Authors: Li Shuai , Dislich Bastian , Brakebusch Cord H. , Lichtenthaler Stefan F. , Brocker Thomas
Published: September 2015

Tissues accommodate defined numbers of dendritic cells (DCs) in highly specific niches where different intrinsic and environmental stimuli control DC life span and numbers. DC homeostasis in tissues is important, because experimental changes in DC numbers influence immunity and tolerance toward various immune catastrophes and inflammation. However, the precise molecular mechanisms regulating DC life span and homeostasis are unclear. We report that the GTPase RhoA controls homeostatic proliferation, cytokinesis, survival, and turnover of cDCs. Deletion of RhoA strongly decreased the numbers of CD11b−CD8+ and CD11b+Esamhi DC subsets, whereas CD11b+Esamlo DCs were not affected in conditional RhoA-deficient mice. Proteome analyses revealed a defective prosurvival pathway via PI3K/protein kinase B (Akt1)/Bcl-2–associated death promoter in the absence of RhoA. Taken together, our findings identify RhoA as a central regulator of DC homeostasis, and its deletion decreases DC numbers below critical thresholds for immune protection and homeostasis, causing aberrant compensatory DC proliferation.
Requirement for CD28 in Effector Regulatory T Cell Differentiation, CCR6 Induction, and Skin Homing
Authors: Zhang Ruan , Borges Christopher M. , Fan Martin Y. , Harris John E. , Turka Laurence A.
Published: September 2015

The skin, similar to most nonlymphoid tissues, contains substantial numbers of T cells. Among these, memory T cells serve a sentinel role to protect against pathogens, and regulatory T cells (Tregs) terminate immune responses as a check against unrestrained inflammation. Previously, we created conditional knockout mice with Treg-specific deletion of CD28. Although these mice have normal numbers of Tregs, these cells have lower levels of CTLA-4, PD-1, and CCR6, and the animals develop systemic autoimmunity characterized by prominent skin inflammation. In this study, we have performed a detailed analysis of the skin disease in these mice. Our data show that Treg-expressed CD28 is required for optimal maturation of CD44loCD62Lhi central Tregs into CD44hiCD62Llo effector Tregs (eTregs), as well as induction of CCR6 among the cells that do become eTregs. Although CD28-deficient Tregs are able to regulate inflammation normally when injected directly into the skin, they fail to home properly to inflamed skin. Collectively, these results suggest a key role for CD28 costimulation in promoting a central Treg to eTreg transition with appropriate upregulation of chemokine receptors such as CCR6 that are required for tissue homing.
Enhancing Dendritic Cell–based Immunotherapy with IL-2/Monoclonal Antibody Complexes for Control of Established Tumors
Authors: Kim Marie T. , Richer Martin J. , Gross Brett P. , Norian Lyse A. , Badovinac Vladimir P. , Harty John T.
Published: September 2015

U.S. Food and Drug Administration–approved high-dose IL-2 therapy and dendritic cell (DC) immunization offer time-tested treatments for malignancy, but with defined issues of short in vivo t1/2, toxicity, and modest clinical benefit. Complexes of IL-2 with specific mAbs (IL-2c) exhibit improved stability in vivo with reduced toxicity and are capable of stimulating NK cell and memory phenotype CD8 T cell proliferation. In this study, we demonstrate that IL-2c treatment in tumor-bearing mice can enhance NK cell and tumor-specific CD8 T cell numbers. Importantly, DC immunization coupled with stabilized IL-2c infusion drastically improves the tumor-specific effector CD8 T cell response. DC + IL-2c treatment enhances number, 41BB and GITR expression, granzyme B production, CTL/regulatory T cell ratio, and per-cell killing capacity of CD8 T cells without increasing inhibitory molecule expression. Notably, IL-2c treatment of anti-CD3–stimulated human CD8 T cells resulted in higher number and granzyme B production, supporting the translational potential of this immunotherapy strategy for human malignancy. DC + IL-2c treatment enhances both endogenous NK cell and tumor Ag–specific CD8 T cell immunity to provide a marked reduction in tumor burden in multiple models of pre-existing malignancy in B6 and BALB/c mice. Depletion studies reveal contributions from both tumor-specific CD8 T cells and NK cells in control of tumor burden after DC + IL-2c treatment. Together, these data suggest that combination therapy with DC and IL-2c may be a potent treatment for malignancy.
Persistent Simian Immunodeficiency Virus Infection Causes Ultimate Depletion of Follicular Th Cells in AIDS
Authors: Xu Huanbin , Wang Xiaolei , Malam Naomi , Lackner Andrew A. , Veazey Ronald S.
Published: September 2015

CD4+ T follicular helper (Tfh) cells are critical for the generation of humoral immune responses to pathogenic infections, providing help for B cell development, survival, and affinity maturation of Abs. Although CD4+ Tfh cells are reported to accumulate in HIV or SIV infection, we found that germinal center Tfh cells, defined in this study as CXCR5+PD-1HIGHCD4+ T cells, did not consistently accumulate in chronically SIV-infected rhesus macaques compared with those infected with less pathogenic simian HIV, vaccinated and SIVmac-challenged, or SIVmac-infected Mamu-A*01+ macaques, all of which are associated with some control of virus replication and slower disease progression. Interestingly, CXCR5+PD-1HIGH Tfh cells in lymphoid tissues were eventually depleted in macaques with AIDS compared with the other cohorts. Chronic activation and proliferation of CXCR5+PD-1HIGH Tfh were increased, but PD-L2 expression was downregulated on B cells, possibly resulting in germinal center Tfh cell apoptosis. Together, these findings suggest that changes in CXCR5+PD-1HIGH Tfh cells in lymph nodes correlate with immune control during infection, and their loss or dysregulation contribute to impairment of B cell responses and progression to AIDS.
T-bet Is Required for the Rapid Clearance of Attenuated Rabies Virus from Central Nervous System Tissue
Authors: Lebrun Aurore , Portocarrero Carla , Kean Rhonda B. , Barkhouse Darryll A. , Faber Milosz , Hooper D. Craig
Published: September 2015

Much of our understanding of CNS immunity has been gained from models involving pathological inflammation. Attenuated rabies viruses (RABV) are unique tools to study CNS immunity in the absence of conventional inflammatory mechanisms, as they spread from the site of inoculation to the CNS transaxonally, thereby bypassing the blood–brain barrier (BBB), and are cleared without neutrophil or monocyte infiltration. To better understand the role of CD4 T cell subsets in the clearance of the virus from CNS tissues, we examined the development of antiviral immunity in wild-type (WT) and T-bet knockout mice (T-bet−/−), which lack Th1 cells. Early control of RABV replication in the CNS tissues of WT mice is associated with the production of IFN-γ, with antiviral effects likely mediated through the enhanced expression of type I IFNs. Of interest, IFN-α and -γ are overexpressed in the infected T-bet−/− by comparison with WT CNS tissues, and the initial control of RABV infection is similar. Ultimately, attenuated RABV are cleared from the CNS tissues of WT mice by Ab locally produced by the activities of infiltrating T and B cells. Although T and B cell infiltration into the CNS of infected T-bet−/− mice is comparable, their activities are not, the consequence being delayed, low-level Ab production and prolonged RABV replication. More importantly, neither T-bet−/− mice immunized with an attenuated virus, nor WT mice with Th2 RABV-specific immunity induced by immunization with inactivated virus, are protected in the long term against challenge with a pathogenic RABV.
Tissue Distribution of Memory T and B Cells in Rhesus Monkeys following Influenza A Infection
Authors: Pichyangkul Sathit , Yongvanitchit Kosol , Limsalakpetch Amporn , Kum-Arb Utaiwan , Im-Erbsin Rawiwan , Boonnak Kobporn , Thitithayanont Arunee , Jongkaewwattana Anan , Wiboon-ut Suwimon , Mongkolsirichaikul Duangrat , Mahanonda Rangsini , Spring Michele , Chuang Ilin , Mason Carl J. , Saunders David L.
Published: September 2015

Studies of influenza-specific immune responses in humans have largely assessed systemic responses involving serum Ab and peripheral blood T cell responses. However, recent evidence indicates that tissue-resident memory T (TRM) cells play an important role in local murine intrapulmonary immunity. Rhesus monkeys were pulmonary exposed to 2009 pandemic H1N1 virus at days 0 and 28 and immune responses in different tissue compartments were measured. All animals were asymptomatic postinfection. Although only minimal memory immune responses were detected in peripheral blood, a high frequency of influenza nucleoprotein–specific memory T cells was detected in the lung at the “contraction phase,” 49–58 d after second virus inoculation. A substantial proportion of lung nucleoprotein-specific memory CD8+ T cells expressed CD103 and CD69, phenotypic markers of TRM cells. Lung CD103+ and CD103- memory CD8+ T cells expressed similar levels of IFN-γ and IL-2. Unlike memory T cells, spontaneous Ab secreting cells and memory B cells specific to influenza hemagglutinin were primarily observed in the mediastinal lymph nodes. Little difference in systemic and local immune responses against influenza was observed between young adult (6–8 y) and old animals (18–28 y). Using a nonhuman primate model, we revealed substantial induction of local T and B cell responses following 2009 pandemic H1N1 infection. Our study identified a subset of influenza-specific lung memory T cells characterized as TRM cells in rhesus monkeys. The rhesus monkey model may be useful to explore the role of TRM cells in local tissue protective immunity after rechallenge and vaccination.
Using Transitional Year Milestones to Assess Graduating Medical Students' Skills During a Capstone Course
Authors: Clay Alison S. , Andolsek Kathryn , Grochowski Colleen O'Connor , Engle Deborah L. , Chudgar Saumil M.
Published: September 2015

Background

Undergraduate medical education (UME) follows the lead of graduate medical education (GME) in moving to competency-based assessment. The means for and the timing of competency-based assessments in UME are unclear.

Objective

We explored the feasibility of using the Accreditation Council for Graduate Medical Education Transitional Year (TY) Milestones to assess student performance during a mandatory, fourth-year capstone course.

Methods

Our single institution, observational study involved 99 medical students who completed the course in the spring of 2014. Students' skills were assessed by self, peer, and faculty assessment for 6 existing course activities using the TY Milestones. Evaluation completion rates and mean scores were calculated.

Results

Students' mean milestone levels ranged between 2.2 and 3.6 (on a 5-level scoring rubric). Level 3 is the performance expected at the completion of a TY. Students performed highest in breaking bad news and developing a quality improvement project, and lowest in developing a learning plan, working in interdisciplinary teams, and stabilizing acutely ill patients. Evaluation completion rates were low for some evaluations, and precluded use of the data for assessing student performance in the capstone course. Students were less likely to complete separate online evaluations. Faculty were less likely to complete evaluations when activities did not include dedicated time for evaluations.

Conclusions

Assessment of student competence on 9 TY Milestones during a capstone course was useful, but achieving acceptable evaluation completion rates was challenging. Modifications are necessary if milestone scores from a capstone are intended to be used as a handoff between UME and GME.
Ideologia Gerencialista, Poder e Gestão de Pessoas na Administração Pública e Privada: uma interpretação sob a ótica da Análise Crítica do Discurso
Authors: Onuma Fernanda Mitsue Soares , Zwick Elisa , Brito Mozar José de
Published: September 2015

Este trabalho busca compreender, sob a luz da Análise Crítica do Discurso, como se desenvolve a ideologia gerencialista em duas das organizações que ocupam as primeiras posições do ranking das melhores organizações privadas e públicas no ano de 2013. Compreende-se a ideologia gerencialista como naturalizadora de práticas de gestão de pessoas que facilitam o exercício de poder. Ela contribui para a construção de um universo gestionário que substitui a dignidade pela utilidade e a solidariedade coletiva pela celebração do mérito individual. Nessa complexa configuração social, as relações humanas são instrumentalizadas e transformadas em relações comerciais. Cidadãos são abordados como clientes e as organizações públicas e privadas, em simples provedores de bens e serviços.
As Interfaces entre Empreendedorismo Social, Negócios Sociais e Redes Sociais no Campo Social
Authors: Silva Maria de Fátima da , Moura Laysce Rocha de , Junqueira Luciano A. Prates
Published: September 2015

Este ensaio discute os conceitos do empreendedorismo social, dos negócios sociais e das redes sociais no enfrentamento das demandas sociais, respondendo à pergunta: há interfaces entre esses conceitos? A busca pela mudança social tem no empreendedorismo social, nos negócios sociais e nas redes sociais a possibilidade de gerar ações inovadoras por organizações que atuam tanto no setor público como no privado, com o objetivo de promover a transformação social. As interfaces podem contribuir para a construção do campo da gestão social na medida em que a ação empreendedora no desenvolvimento dos negócios sociais intensifica-se com as redes sociais. O debate dessas ideias sugere a abertura de novos caminhos que possam contribuir para o enfrentamento dos problemas sociais.
Use of North American and European air quality networks to evaluate global chemistry–climate modeling of surface ozone
Authors: Schnell J. L. , Prather M. J. , Josse B. , Naik V. , Horowitz L. W. , Cameron-Smith P. , Bergmann D. , Zeng G. , Plummer D. A. , Sudo K. , Nagashima T. , Shindell D. T. , Faluvegi G. , Strode S. A.
Published: September 2015

Abstract. We test the current generation of global chemistry–climate models in their ability to simulate observed, present-day surface ozone. Models are evaluated against hourly surface ozone from 4217 stations in North America and Europe that are averaged over 1° × 1° grid cells, allowing commensurate model–measurement comparison. Models are generally biased high during all hours of the day and in all regions. Most models simulate the shape of regional summertime diurnal and annual cycles well, correctly matching the timing of hourly (~ 15:00 local time (LT)) and monthly (mid-June) peak surface ozone abundance. The amplitude of these cycles is less successfully matched. The observed summertime diurnal range (~ 25 ppb) is underestimated in all regions by about 7 ppb, and the observed seasonal range (~ 21 ppb) is underestimated by about 5 ppb except in the most polluted regions, where it is overestimated by about 5 ppb. The models generally match the pattern of the observed summertime ozone enhancement, but they overestimate its magnitude in most regions. Most models capture the observed distribution of extreme episode sizes, correctly showing that about 80 % of individual extreme events occur in large-scale, multi-day episodes of more than 100 grid cells. The models also match the observed linear relationship between episode size and a measure of episode intensity, which shows increases in ozone abundance by up to 6 ppb for larger-sized episodes. We conclude that the skill of the models evaluated here provides confidence in their projections of future surface ozone.
A global aerosol classification algorithm incorporating multiple satellite data sets of aerosol and trace gas abundances
Authors: Penning de Vries M. J. M. , Beirle S. , Hörmann C. , Kaiser J. W. , Stammes P. , Tilstra L. G. , Tuinder O. N. E. , Wagner T.
Published: September 2015

Abstract. Detecting the optical properties of aerosols using passive satellite-borne measurements alone is a difficult task due to the broadband effect of aerosols on the measured spectra and the influences of surface and cloud reflection. We present another approach to determine aerosol type, namely by studying the relationship of aerosol optical depth (AOD) with trace gas abundance, aerosol absorption, and mean aerosol size. Our new Global Aerosol Classification Algorithm, GACA, examines relationships between aerosol properties (AOD and extinction Ångström exponent from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), UV Aerosol Index from the second Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment, GOME-2) and trace gas column densities (NO2, HCHO, SO2 from GOME-2, and CO from MOPITT, the Measurements of Pollution in the Troposphere instrument) on a monthly mean basis. First, aerosol types are separated based on size (Ångström exponent) and absorption (UV Aerosol Index), then the dominating sources are identified based on mean trace gas columns and their correlation with AOD. In this way, global maps of dominant aerosol type and main source type are constructed for each season and compared with maps of aerosol composition from the global MACC (Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate) model. Although GACA cannot correctly characterize transported or mixed aerosols, GACA and MACC show good agreement regarding the global seasonal cycle, particularly for urban/industrial aerosols. The seasonal cycles of both aerosol type and source are also studied in more detail for selected 5° × 5° regions. Again, good agreement between GACA and MACC is found for all regions, but some systematic differences become apparent: the variability of aerosol composition (yearly and/or seasonal) is often not well captured by MACC, the amount of mineral dust outside of the dust belt appears to be overestimated, and the abundance of secondary organic aerosols is underestimated in comparison with GACA. Whereas the presented study is of exploratory nature, we show that the developed algorithm is well suited to evaluate climate and atmospheric composition models by including aerosol type and source obtained from measurements into the comparison, instead of focusing on a single parameter, e.g., AOD. The approach could be adapted to constrain the mix of aerosol types during the process of a combined data assimilation of aerosol and trace gas observations.
Influence of crustal dust and sea spray supermicron particle concentrations and acidity on inorganic NO3− aerosol during the 2013 Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study
Authors: Allen H. M. , Draper D. C. , Ayres B. R. , Ault A. , Bondy A. , Takahama S. , Modini R. L. , Baumann K. , Edgerton E. , Knote C. , Laskin A. , Wang B. , Fry J. L.
Published: September 2015

Abstract. Inorganic aerosol composition was measured in the southeastern United States, a region that exhibits high aerosol mass loading during the summer, as part of the 2013 Southern Oxidant and Aerosol Study (SOAS) campaign. Measurements using a Monitor for AeRosols and GAses (MARGA) revealed two periods of high aerosol nitrate (NO3−) concentrations during the campaign. These periods of high nitrate were correlated with increased concentrations of supermicron crustal and sea spray aerosol species, particularly Na+ and Ca2+, and with a shift towards aerosol with larger (1 to 2.5 μm) diameters. We suggest this nitrate aerosol forms by multiphase reactions of HNO3 and particles, reactions that are facilitated by transport of crustal dust and sea spray aerosol from a source within the United States. The observed high aerosol acidity prevents the formation of NH4NO3, the inorganic nitrogen species often dominant in fine-mode aerosol at higher pH. Calculation of the rate of the heterogeneous uptake of HNO3 on mineral aerosol supports the conclusion that aerosol NO3− is produced primarily by this process, and is likely limited by the availability of mineral cation-containing aerosol surface area. Modeling of NO3− and HNO3 by thermodynamic equilibrium models (ISORROPIA II and E-AIM) reveals the importance of including mineral cations in the southeastern United States to accurately balance ion species and predict gas–aerosol phase partitioning.
Using beryllium-7 to assess cross-tropopause transport in global models
Authors: Liu H. , Considine D. B. , Horowitz L. W. , Crawford J. H. , Rodriguez J. M. , Strahan S. E. , Damon M. R. , Steenrod S. D. , Xu X. , Kouatchou J. , Carouge C. , Yantosca R. M.
Published: September 2015

Abstract. We use the Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) modeling framework to assess the utility of cosmogenic beryllium-7 (7Be), a natural aerosol tracer, for evaluating cross-tropopause transport in global models. The GMI chemical transport model (CTM) was used to simulate atmospheric 7Be distributions using four different meteorological data sets (GEOS1-STRAT DAS, GISS II' GCM, fvGCM, and GEOS4-DAS), featuring significantly different stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE) characteristics. The simulations were compared with the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UT/LS) 7Be climatology constructed from ~ 25 years of aircraft and balloon data, as well as climatological records of surface concentrations and deposition fluxes. Comparison of the fraction of surface air of stratospheric origin estimated from the 7Be simulations with observationally-derived estimates indicates excessive cross-tropopause transport at middle latitudes in simulations using GEOS1-STRAT and at high latitudes using GISS II' meteorological data. These simulations also overestimate 7Be deposition fluxes at middle latitudes (GEOS1-STRAT) and at high latitudes (GISS II'), respectively. We show that excessive cross-tropopause transport of 7Be corresponds to overestimated stratospheric contribution to tropospheric ozone. Our perspectives on STE in these meteorological fields based on 7Be simulations are consistent with previous modeling studies of tropospheric ozone using the same meteorological fields. We further apply observational constraints to other global models including GFDL AM2 and GEOS-Chem (driven by GEOS3-DAS and GEOS5-DAS). We conclude that the observational constraints for 7Be and observed 7Be total deposition fluxes can be used routinely as a first-order assessment of cross-tropopause transport in global models.
Three years of semicontinuous greenhouse gas measurements at the Puy de Dôme station (central France)
Authors: Lopez M. , Schmidt M. , Ramonet M. , Bonne J.-L. , Colomb A. , Kazan V. , Laj P. , Pichon J.-M.
Published: September 2015

Abstract. Three years of greenhouse gas measurements, obtained using a gas chromatograph (GC) system located at the Puy de Dôme station at 1465 m a.s.l. in central France, are presented. The GC system was installed in 2010 at Puy de Dôme and was designed for automatic and accurate semicontinuous measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide and sulfur hexafluoride mole fractions. We present in detail the instrumental setup and the calibration strategy, which together allow the GC to reach repeatabilities of 0.1 μmol mol−1, 1.2 nmol mol−1, 0.3 nmol mol−1 and 0.06 pmol mol−1 for CO2, CH4, N2O and SF6, respectively. The analysis of the 3-year atmospheric time series revealed how the planetary boundary layer height drives the mole fractions observed at a mountain site such as Puy de Dôme where air masses alternate between the planetary boundary layer and the free troposphere. Accurate long-lived greenhouse gas measurements collocated with 222Rn measurements as an atmospheric tracer allowed us to determine the CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions in the catchment area of the station. The derived CO2 surface flux revealed a clear seasonal cycle, with net uptake by plant assimilation in the spring and net emission caused by the biosphere and burning of fossil fuel during the remainder of the year. We calculated a mean annual CO2 flux of 1310 ± 680 t CO2 km−2. The derived CH4 and N2O emissions in the station catchment area were 7.0 ± 4.0 t CH4 km−2 yr−1 and 1.8 ± 1.0 t N2O km−2 yr−1, respectively. Our derived annual CH4 flux is in agreement with the national French inventory, whereas our derived N2O flux is 5 times larger than the same inventory.
Evaluation of modeled surface ozone biases as a function of cloud cover fraction
Authors: Kim H. C. , Lee P. , Ngan F. , Tang Y. , Yoo H. L. , Pan L.
Published: September 2015

Abstract. A regional air-quality forecast system's model of surface ozone variability based on cloud coverage is evaluated using satellite-observed cloud fraction (CF) information and a surface air-quality monitoring system. We compared CF and daily maximum ozone from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NOAA NAQFC) with CFs from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and the US Environmental Protection Agency's AirNow surface ozone measurements during May to October 2014. We found that observed surface ozone shows a negative correlation with the MODIS CFs, showing around 1 ppb decrease for 10 % MODIS CF change over the contiguous United States, while the correlation of modeled surface ozone with the model CFs is much weaker, showing only −0.5 ppb per 10 % NAQFC CF change. Further, daytime CF differences between MODIS and NAQFC are correlated with modeled surface-ozone biases between AirNow and NAQFC, showing −1.05 ppb per 10 % CF change, implying that spatial and temporal misplacement of the modeled cloud field might have biased modeled surface ozone level. Current NAQFC cloud fields seem to have fewer CFs compared to MODIS cloud fields (mean NAQFC CF = 0.38 and mean MODIS CF = 0.55), contributing up to 35 % of surface-ozone bias in the current NAQFC system.
Performance and robustness of probabilistic river forecasts computed with quantile regression based on multiple independent variables
Authors: Hoss F. , Fischbeck P. S.
Published: September 2015

Abstract. This study applies quantile regression (QR) to predict exceedance probabilities of various water levels, including flood stages, with combinations of deterministic forecasts, past forecast errors and rates of water level rise as independent variables. A computationally cheap technique to estimate forecast uncertainty is valuable, because many national flood forecasting services, such as the National Weather Service (NWS), only publish deterministic single-valued forecasts. The study uses data from the 82 river gauges, for which the NWS' North Central River Forecast Center issues forecasts daily. Archived forecasts for lead times of up to 6 days from 2001 to 2013 were analyzed. Besides the forecast itself, this study uses the rate of rise of the river stage in the last 24 and 48 h and the forecast error 24 and 48 h ago as predictors in QR configurations. When compared to just using the forecast as an independent variable, adding the latter four predictors significantly improved the forecasts, as measured by the Brier skill score and the continuous ranked probability score. Mainly, the resolution increases, as the forecast-only QR configuration already delivered high reliability. Combining the forecast with the other four predictors results in a much less favorable performance. Lastly, the forecast performance does not strongly depend on the size of the training data set but on the year, the river gauge, lead time and event threshold that are being forecast. We find that each event threshold requires a separate configuration or at least calibration.
Stochastic or statistic? Comparing flow duration curve models in ungauged basins and changing climates
Authors: Müller M. F. , Thompson S. E.
Published: September 2015

Abstract. The prediction of flow duration curves (FDCs) in ungauged basins remains an important task for hydrologists given the practical relevance of FDCs for water management and infrastructure design. Predicting FDCs in ungauged basins typically requires spatial interpolation of statistical or model parameters. This task is complicated if climate becomes non-stationary, as the prediction challenge now also requires extrapolation through time. In this context, process-based models for FDCs that mechanistically link the streamflow distribution to climate and landscape factors may have an advantage over purely statistical methods to predict FDCs. This study compares a stochastic (process-based) and statistical method for FDC prediction in both stationary and non-stationary contexts, using Nepal as a case study. Under contemporary conditions, both models perform well in predicting FDCs, with Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients above 0.80 in 75 % of the tested catchments. The main drives of uncertainty differ between the models: parameter interpolation was the main source of error for the statistical model, while violations of the assumptions of the process-based model represented the main source of its error. The process-based approach performed better than the statistical approach in numerical simulations with non-stationary climate drivers. The predictions of the statistical method under non-stationary rainfall conditions were poor if (i) local runoff coefficients were not accurately determined from the gauge network, or (ii) streamflow variability was strongly affected by changes in rainfall. A Monte Carlo analysis shows that the streamflow regimes in catchments characterized by a strong wet-season runoff and a rapid, strongly non-linear hydrologic response are particularly sensitive to changes in rainfall statistics. In these cases, process-based prediction approaches are strongly favored over statistical models.
Use of cosmic ray neutron sensors for soil moisture monitoring in forests
Authors: Heidbüchel I. , Güntner A. , Blume T.
Published: September 2015

Abstract. Cosmic ray neutron sensors (CRS) are a promising technique to measure soil moisture at intermediate scales. To convert neutron counts to average volumetric soil water content a simple calibration function can be used (the N0-calibration of Desilets et al., 2010). This calibration function is based on soil water content derived directly from soil samples taken within the footprint of the sensor. We installed a CRS in a mixed forest in the lowlands of north-eastern Germany and calibrated it 10 times throughout one calendar year. Each calibration with the N0-calibration function resulted in a different CRS soil moisture time series, with deviations of up to 0.12 m3 m-3 for individual values of soil water content. Also, many of the calibration efforts resulted in time series that could not be matched with independent in situ measurements of soil water content. We therefore suggest a new calibration function with a different shape that can vary from one location to another. A two-point calibration proved to be adequate to correctly define the shape of the new calibration function if the calibration points were taken during both dry and wet conditions covering at least 50 % of the total range of soil moisture. The best results were obtained when the soil samples used for calibration were linearly weighted as a function of depth in the soil profile and non-linearly weighted as a function of distance from the CRS, and when the depth-specific amount of soil organic matter and lattice water content was explicitly considered. The annual cycle of tree foliation was found to be a negligible factor for calibration because the variable hydrogen mass in the leaves was small compared to the hydrogen mass changes by soil moisture variations. Finally, we provide a best practice calibration guide for CRS in forested environments.
A spatiotemporal multi-hazard exposure assessment based on property data
Authors: Fuchs S. , Keiler M. , Zischg A.
Published: September 2015

Abstract. The paper presents a nation-wide spatially explicit object-based assessment of buildings and citizens exposed to natural hazards in Austria, including river flooding, torrential flooding, and snow avalanches. The assessment was based on two different data sets, (a) hazard information providing input to the exposure of elements at risk, and (b) information on the building stock combined from different spatial data available on the national level. Hazard information was compiled from two different sources. For torrential flooding and snow avalanches available local-scale hazard maps were used, and for river flooding the results of the countrywide flood modelling eHORA were available. Information on the building stock contained information on the location and size of each building, as well as on the building category and the construction period. Additional information related to the individual floors, such as their height and net area, main purpose and configuration, was included for each property. Moreover, this data set has an interface to the population register and allowed, therefore, for retrieving the number of primary residents for each building. With the exception of sacral buildings, an economic module was used to compute the monetary value of buildings using (a) the information of the building register such as building type, number of storeys and utilisation, and (b) regionally averaged construction costs. It is shown that the repeatedly stated assumption of increasing exposure due to continued population growth and related increase in assets has to be carefully evaluated by the local development of building stock. While some regions have shown a clearly above-average increase in assets, other regions were characterised by a below-average development. This mirrors the topography of the country, but also the different economic activities. While hotels and hostels are extraordinarily prone to torrential flooding, commercial buildings as well as buildings used for recreational purposes are considerably exposed to river flooding. Residential buildings have shown an average exposure, compared to the number of buildings of this type in the overall building stock. In sum, around 5 % of all buildings are exposed to torrential flooding, and around 9 % to river flooding, with around 1 % of the buildings stock being multi-exposed. The temporal assessment of exposure has shown considerable differences in the dynamics of exposure to different hazard categories in comparison to the overall property stock. In conclusion, the presented object-based assessment is an important and suitable tool for nation-wide exposure assessment and may be used in operational risk management.