Demographic Transformations in the Light of Technological Development: Types of Demographic Reproduction in the Past and in the Future
Authors: Grinin Leonid , Grinin Anton , Korotayev Andrey 
Published: December 2023

The analysis of the demographic component and demographic dimension of historical process has not been sufficiently studied in the social sciences. The demographic development of humankind is even more rarely studied in its close connection with technological development. However, this is an extremely important aspect that can not only explain essential dimensions of the development, but also provide a basis for explaining current processes and forecasting our futures. Moreover, in many ways, it is an integral aspect of analysis, because it focuses on people, the population, which is the main subject of society and humanity. This work, consisting of two articles, aims at providing a theoretical framework for the correlation between the development of production and technology, on the one hand, and demographic transformations, on the other, during the historical process, and to describe all major demographic transformations during human history. The work describes the historical types of population reproduction (TPR) and the reasons for their change. All this makes it possible to make a forecast about the vectors and main features of the coming demographic transformation in the twenty-first century. In the first article we described theoretical approaches and models of the correlation between production revolutions (Agrarian, Industrial and Cybernetic) and the largest demographic transformations, and also spoke about important factors influencing the population growth and its limitations. We showed that the production revolution and the development of the production principle cycle in general change the type of population reproduction, and together they provide the most powerful impulse for the qualitative reorganization of the entire social structure and social relations and further world-system configurations. Thus, every production revolution is followed by a fundamental change in demography. In the present (second) article, the relationship between each production revolution and each production principle, on the one hand, and demographic transformations and type of population reproduction, on the other hand, is analyzed not just in a theoretical model, but in connection with the specific course of the historical process and those quantitative data, which science currently has at its disposal. When considering the defined correlation between transformations in production and demography, we give explanation to many important peculiarities. All these ideas about demographic trends from the Upper Paleolithic to the end of the twenty-first century have also been summarized by us in a convenient tabular form. A particular attention is given to the analysis of the demographic transition in connection with the demographic transformations taking place in the last seven to eight decades; in addition, the connection between the ongoing Cybernetic Revolution and global aging is revealed. Forecasts are made about future demographic transformations associated with the development of the aging process and the formation of a new type of population reproduction. The arti