bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Energy and vapour transfer in evaporation processes over saturated soil textures and water surface
Authors: Li Wanxin , Wang Wenke , Wang Yi , Lu Xiao , Fu Chenan , Wang Zilin , Ma Shouliang , Sun Zhaodi , Peng Jiahui , Wang Jiawei , Gu Deming
Published: March 2024

Evaporation from water (PEw) is generally considered equivalent to evaporation from saturated bare soils (PEs) as a starting point to estimate actual evaporation Ea. This simplification considers that the PE value is mainly determined by meteorological variables. The influences of the surface type on PE, as well as the energy and vapour transfer in evaporation processes over saturated soil textures and water surface have so far received little attention. In this research, evaporation over two saturated sandy soils including coarse sand (PEcoarse), fine sand (PEfine) and water were assessed for lysimeters installed in the Guanzhong Basin, China. Evaporation from Class A Pan (PEpan), meteorological variables and temperatures in soil and water were also captured at a high temporal resolution (5 min.) for more than 14 consecutive months. Observed PE rates demonstrated evident differences in both absolute values and diurnal dynamics between saturated soils and water. PEs is ~12% higher than PEw on a yearly scale. Annual PEfine exceeded PEcoarse by 7.3%, with the differences more obvious during daytime in spring and summer. The cumulative evaporation rates over water column and Class A Pan showed minor differences. PEs is higher than PEw at day but smaller at night, with the peak value of PEw lagging ~4 hours behind PEs. Compared with PEw-curve, the PEpan-curve resembles more the PEs-curves over a sub-daily scale.Our research revealed that these observed PE dynamics and energy transfer processes can be quantitatively explained with detailed calculations of the surface energy balance. It is found that differences in PE are governed by differences in available energy (related to different albedos, different thermal properties and different surface temperature T) between soils and water. Moreover, the observed differences in PE and vapour transfer processes were reproduced and described by improving the vapour diffusion equation, with considering the influence of different surfaces and boundary layer thicknesses. PE dynamics were mainly characterized by the surface temperature T, which further determined the vapour gradients between the evaporation surfaces and airflow. Previous research considered surface temperature T to be an independent external forcing that determines ‘wet surface’ evaporation. Our research suggests that T is a significant internal forcing for both energy and vapour transfer during the evaporation process since it influences the redistribution of energy fluxes at the surface (the ground heat flux G and the variation in water heat storage N), the outgoing longwave radiation (Rlu), as well as the vapour gradients above the surface (Δe).
Meteorological Droughts in India under Climate Change Conditions: A Complex Networks-based Approach
Authors: Chandrababu Salini Devika , Sivakumar Bellie
Published: March 2024

Droughts pose substantial challenges to water resources, ecosystems, and agriculture. Climate change is anticipated to result in more frequent and greater magnitude droughts in the future. The present study assesses meteorological droughts in India under climate change conditions using a complex networks-based approach. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values at a duration of 1, 3, 6, and 12 months are used to assess the meteorological droughts. Observed precipitation data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and precipitation outputs from 53 GCMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) are used. The data considered are at a spatial resolution of 1° x 1°, covering a total of 288 grids across India. The Shortest Path Length is used as a network measure to rank the GCMs. First, the network is constructed by treating each grid as a node and identifying the links between any pair of grids according to certain threshold conditions in correlations in SPI values. Next, the GCMs are individually ranked for each of the 288 grids based on the difference in the shortest path length between the observed and GCM-simulated SPI networks. Then, the Group Decision-Making (GDM) approach is applied toidentify the top-performing GCMs across all the 288 grids. Finally, the inclusion of a comprehensive rating metric (RM) value provides a unified approach to combine the ranks obtained for GCMs across various duration (1, 3, 6, and 12 months). The results indicate that NorESM2-MM, CESM2-FV2, KACE-1-0-G, SAM0-UNICON, and CMCC-CM2-SR5 are the top five models in terms of performance. Data from these five models are then studied using Event Synchronization (ES) to uncover the spatial connections in drought events across space. This novel approach contributes to a better understanding of the spatial dynamics of meteorological droughts, especially under climate change.
Climate sensitivity, the pattern effect, and cloud parametrisation
Authors: Eiselt Kai-Uwe , Graversen Rune Grand
Published: March 2024

Climate sensitivity changes over time in numerical global climate models (GCMs) due to a so-called “pattern effect”. That is, surface-warming patterns evolve over time to favour different geographical regions giving rise to different climate feedbacks, thus changing climate sensitivity over time.One of the most important climate feedbacks is the cloud feedback and it has been shown that the pattern effect may strongly impact the strength of this feedback in GCMs. Here we perform slab-ocean model simulations with different versions of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Different patterns of ocean heat transport convergence (Q-flux) are prescribed, inducing different patterns of surface warming. Notably, the prescribed Q-flux changes average to zero in the global mean, thus introducing no net forcing. We show that (1) net-zero forcing Q-flux changes can have surprisingly large effects on the climate, (2) that the impact strongly depends on the geographic pattern of the Q-flux change and, (3) that different cloud parametrisations may imply different impacts of the same patterns.While these results may have important implications for the quantification of the pattern effect and climate sensitivity in climate models, we caution against overinterpretation, as preliminary experiments with fully coupled models indicate a weaker sensitivity to similar pattern changes.
UPFLOW body wave tomography of the whole mantle column beneath the Azores-Madeira-Canaries region
Authors: Tsekhmistrenko Maria , Ferreira Ana , Miranda Miguel
Published: March 2024

We present initial tomographic findings from the ERC-funded UPFLOW (Upward mantle flow from novel seismic observations) project, showcasing results from a large-scale passive seismology experiment conducted in the Azores-Madeira-Canaries region between July 2021 and September 2022. Recovering 49 out of 50 ocean bottom seismometers (OBSs) in a ~1,000×2,000 km2 area with an average station spacing of ~150-200 km, we analyze approximately ~8000 multi-frequency (T ~2.7-30 s) body-wave travel time cross-correlation measurements derived from UPFLOW OBS data and over 120 teleseismic events. A preliminary P-wave tomographic model is presented, offering insight into the region's mantle dynamics.Furthermore, by integrating UPFLOW's OBS data with global seismic data from both temporary and permanent stations, we expand the dataset to around 600,000 multifrequency measurements. This comprehensive dataset is employed to construct a global P-wave model, providing enhanced resolution throughout the entire mantle column beneath the Azores-Madeira-Canaries region. A comparative analysis with existing global tomography models is performed, and we discuss the geodynamical implications of our new, high-resolution model.
High-Resolution Dynamic Flood Susceptibility Mapping Across the Mediterranean Region
Authors: Mosaffa Hamidreza , Brocca Luca
Published: March 2024

Effective disaster prevention necessitates the production of high-resolution flood susceptibility maps (FSM) that accurately identify potential flood-prone areas. Conventional FSMs, however, provide static representations that overlook the inherent dynamicity of flood susceptibility, which is influenced by temporal variations, precipitation intensities, and other factors. Additionally, traditional FSMs often lack the high-resolution climate data required for precise risk assessment. To address these limitations, we propose a novel dynamic FSM approach that incorporates temporal variations and high-resolution climate data.Our approach employs the Random Forest machine learning algorithm, trained on a comprehensive dataset of flooded and non-flooded areas (Global Flood Database v1). The algorithm considers seven critical factors influencing flooding events: elevation, slope, land cover, proximity to rivers, drainage density, soil moisture, and precipitation. This approach enables the generation of high-resolution (1 km) dynamic FSMs for the Mediterranean region, under varying seasonal conditions, precipitation intensities, and post-drought scenarios.To assess and compare the model's performance, we employed both training and testing datasets, conducting evaluations using various metrics. The study results demonstrate the superior performance of the Random Forest model, establishing its efficacy as a robust tool for mapping dynamic flood susceptibility. The accuracy and reliability of the results obtained through this approach offer crucial insights for mitigating flood-related risks and enhancing disaster management strategies. This study is an integral part of the Open-Earth-Monitor Cyberinfrastructure (OEMC) project. As our next step, we aim to expand the application of our dynamic flood susceptibility mapping methodology to cover the European region.
Temporal and chemical changes during the Late Cretaceous arc magmatism in the Western Pontides (Turkey) 
Authors: Sağlam Ezgi , Duzman Turgut , Ay Cemre , Okay Aral , Topuz Gültekin , Sunal Gürsel , Özcan Ercan , Altıner Demir , Hakyemez Aynur , Wang Jia-Min , Kylander-Clark Andrew RC
Published: March 2024

During the Late Cretaceous, a 2700 km long magmatic arc extended from the Lesser Caucasus through the Pontides into Srednogorie, Timok, Banat, and Apuseni (ABTS) in the Balkans. We studied the arc volcanic rocks in three regions of the Western Pontides, and compared them to the other arc magmatic rocks from the Lesser Caucasus, Eastern Pontides and Balkans. Prior to the onset of the arc magmatism, the region underwent uplift and erosion. New and published geochronologic and biostratigraphic data indicate that magmatism in the Lesser Caucasus, Pontides and Balkans started during the Turonian (ca. 93 Ma), peaked in the middle Campanian (80–78 Ma), and subsequently became rare and sporadic after the late Campanian (ca. 75 Ma). The arc magmatism, characterized by typical subduction signatures, was mainly of middle to high-K calc-alkaline affinity. Late Cretaceous volcanism occurred in a submarine and extensional environment. Along the whole belt, the arc volcanic rocks are overlain by Maastrichtian to Paleocene marine limestones and sandstones, marking the end of the main phase of arc magmatism. However, in the Western Pontides, Maastrichtian limestone sequence includes a volcanic horizon with a U-Pb zircon age of ca. 71 Ma. The geochemistry of the Maastrichtian volcanic rocks is more diverse compared to the older arc volcanic rocks, including alkaline and calc-alkaline basalts, as well as adakitic dacites. The coeval initiation of arc magmatism along the 2700-km-long magmatic arc is associated with the acceleration of Africa-Eurasia convergence at ca. 96 Ma, which is also independently indicated by the beginning of intra-oceanic subduction, inferred from the ages of suprasubduction-zone ophiolites and sub-ophiolite metamorphic rocks in Anatolia. The end of the magmatic activity in the arc is associated with a marked decrease in the convergence rate during the Campanian.     
Impact of Jupiter's heating and self-shadowing on the structure of its circumplanetary disk 
Authors: Schneeberger Antoine , Mousis Olivier , Lunine Jonathan
Published: March 2024

At the very end of its growth, Jupiter became surrounded by a disk composed of gas and dust, where the Galilean moon presumably formed. It is supposed that satellitesimals formed by streaming instability and grew by pebble accretion. Once the satellitesimals reacedh a significant size, they undergone an inward type I migration by gravitational interaction with the disk. In the early stages of the circumplanetary disk, the migration of satellitesimals occurred over so short timescales that most bodies fell onto Jupiter, suggesting that the Galilean moons formed later during the disk’s evolution.  Other studies suggest that the moons sequentially formed and migrated inward. This suggests that the moons were trapped in mean motion resonances, halting their migration.  In the coming years, the ESA mission JUICE and NASA mission Europa-Clipper will study the Galilean moons composition and provide hints on their formation conditions.In this context, we aim to model the evolution of a 2-dimensional circumplanetary disk around Jupiter. To do this, we have constructed a quasi-stationary circumplanetary disk model that considers viscous heating, accretion heating, and heating of the upper layers of the circumplanetary disk by Jupiter. The thermal structure is determined by a grey atmosphere radiative transfer model. We show that the heating by Jupiter of the upper layers of the disk induces flaring and disk self-shadowing effects, which locally increase and decrease the disk temperature, respectively. The resulting temperature variations can be up to 50 K relative to the surrounding disk temperature. Consequently, the circumplanetary disk can produce transient hotter and colder regions that can last up to 10 kyr. The alternance of hot and cold regions in the Jovian circumplanetary disk has then profound implications for the formation conditions of the Galilean moons.
Investigation of Future Climate Change Over the British Isles using Weather Patterns
Authors: Pope James , Brown Kate , Fung Fai , Hanlon Helen , Neal Robert , Palin Erika , Reid Anne
Published: March 2024

For those involved in planning for regional and local scale changes in future climate, there is a requirement for climate information to be available in a context more usually associated with meteorological timescales. Here we combine a tool used in numerical weather prediction, the 30 weather patterns produced by the Met Office, which are already applied operationally to numerical weather prediction models, to assess changes in the UK Climate Projections (UKCP) Global ensemble. Through assessing projected changes in the frequency of the weather patterns at the end of the 21st Century, we determine that future changes in large-scale circulation tend towards an increase in winter of weather patterns associated with cyclonic and westerly wind conditions at the expense of more anticyclonic, settled/blocked weather patterns. In summer, the results indicate a shift towards an increase in dry settled weather types with a corresponding reduction in the wet and windy weather types. Climatologically this suggests a shift towards warmer, wetter winters and warmer, drier summers; which is consistent with the headline findings from the UK Climate Projections 2018. This paper represents the first evaluation of weather patterns analysis within UKCP Global. It provides a detailed assessment of the changes in these weather patterns through the 21st Century and how uncertainty in emissions, structural and perturbed parameters affects these results. We show that the use of these weather patterns in tandem with the UKCP projections is useful for future work investigating changes in a range of weather-related climate features such as extreme precipitation, or impacts on the energy sector. 
Addressing Nonstationarity in Extreme Rainfall Patterns: A Case Study on Indian Cities
Authors: Ankush Ankush , Goel Narendra Kumar , Rajendran Vinnarasi
Published: March 2024

The evolving landscape of extreme rainfall patterns, triggered by climate change and global warming, introduces nonstationary behavior, challenging conventional hydrologic design assumptions rooted in stationarity. This study addresses this paradigm shift by modeling distribution parameters with covariates, utilizing a 70-year high-resolution IMD gridded dataset to extract and model extreme annual rainfall across diverse Indian cities. Drawing on previous research and goodness-of-fit tests that favor the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution for modeling extremes, the study incorporates various indices, including Nino3.4, dipole mode index, global and local temperature and time, to characterize nonstationarity in extreme annual rainfall, leveraging climate cycles and global warming trends. Performance assessment utilizes the Akaike information criterion and Likelihood ratio test, while quantile reliability is scrutinized through confidence intervals (CIs). The findings uncover widespread nonstationary trends in most grid points, resulting in broader CIs for estimated quantiles, return periods, and covariates in fitted models. Despite the broader confidence bands associated with nonstationary conditions, indicating higher uncertainty, the results affirm a nonstationary pattern in rainfall extremes. Consequently, the study underscores the imperative to develop nonstationary models that effectively capture these dynamic trends with reduced uncertainty.
Advancing Biodiversity Exploration and Habitat Monitoring: Utilizing the NaturaSat Software for ecosystems from temperate lowland wetlands to Arctic tundra vegetation.
Authors: Šibíková Mária , Šibík Jozef , Šlenker Marek , Ožvat Aneta A. , Kollár Michal , Mikula Karol
Published: March 2024

Remote sensing plays a crucial role in ecology and nature conservation by allowing for effective monitoring of spatio-temporal changes in ecosystems. The NaturaSat software, developed by a multidisciplinary team of botany fieldwork scientists, nature protection managers, mathematicians, and software developers (Mikula et al., 2021), is a recent tool that focuses on vegetation exploration. This software offers solutions to challenging questions, such as accurately estimating the areas and boundaries of Natura 2000 habitats and tracking their spatio-temporal changes using an evolving curves approach. It also enables the monitoring of biodiversity and habitat quality through the use of a graph-Laplacian function. Additionally, the software utilizes a novel deep learning method called the Natural Numerical Network to classify habitats on the most detailed scale represented by vegetation units. Within this talk, we will present how NaturaSat software has been extensively tested in various habitats, ranging from temperate lowland wetlands along the Danube River to riparian forests, broadleaved deciduous forests, ancient montane woodlands of the Carpathian Mountains, and even the arctic tundra vegetation in the Alaska region. The results have demonstrated the software's capability to accurately identify habitat borders and detect shifts in these borders due to changes in water regimes or climate. Furthermore, it has proven effective in distinguishing between species-rich natural forests and planted forests dominated by the same tree species. The software also enables the classification of habitats and the automatic detection of new habitats in previously undiscovered areas. In conclusion, the NaturaSat software complements detailed ground-based approaches in biodiversity exploration and habitat monitoring. The presented methods can be repeated over long time periods, ensuring temporal consistency, and they offer a cost-effective means of identifying trends in vegetation changes and biodiversity.
Statistical Characteristics of the Long-Term Variations in Major Sudden Stratospheric Warming Events 
Authors: Zhang Yuli , Yi You , Ren Xiaoyu , Liu Yi
Published: March 2024

 We investigate the statistical characteristics and the long-term variations of major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events in the Northern Hemisphere. We find that the strength and duration of major SSW events have increased from 1958 to 2019 and that this is due to the strengthening of the winter planetary wave activity. We find that the frequency of displacement and split SSW events differs between early, middle, and late winter. Early and middle winter are dominated by displacement and split SSW events, respectively, but the frequency of the two types of events is almost equal in late winter. This is due to the differences in the relative strength of wavenumber-1 and wavenumber-2 planetary wave activity in the three winter periods. As a result of the increase in upward planetary wave activity and the decrease in westerly winds around the polar vortex in middle winter, a shift in the timing of SSW events toward middle winter is detected. In addition, we revealed the influence of the downward propagation of different types of SSW events on the surface temperature anomaly. There were surface cold centers in Russia and northern China after the middle split SSW events; by contrast, there were more cold events in North America after the middle split SSW events. 
Anomalous flows in the magnetosheath and their relation to the magnetopause motion
Authors: Grygorov Kostiantyn , Goncharov Oleksandr , Šafránková Jana , Němeček Zdeněk , Šimůnek Jiří
Published: March 2024

The magnetopause (MP) is a critical boundary dividing the space controlled by the Earth's magnetic field from the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF). Its position is mainly influenced by the solar wind dynamic pressure and the north-south IMF component (Bz), which are included in various empirical MP models. However, different transient phenomena, such as hot flow anomalies (HFAs) and magnetosheath jets/plasmoids, generated at the bow shock, can significantly impact the MP, redirecting the plasma flow sunward and triggering a rapid displacement of the local MP in this direction.We present our preliminary results of case and statistical studies of such transient events, aiming to estimate the contribution of their effect on velocity of MP motion. We also discuss the influence of these structures on the local MP shape and orientation. The statistics reveals favorable upstream solar wind conditions and accompanying local magnetosheath parameters.
Reconstructing compound events from crop variability in Europe
Authors: Luther Niklas , Essenfelder Arthur Hrast , Ceglar Andrej , Toreti Andrea , Vlachopoulos Odysseas , Xoplaki Elena
Published: March 2024

Many studies have shown that compounding extreme events are likely to exacerbate socio-economic risks compared to single extremes. Despite this important fact, studies focussing on the connectivity of extreme events and their associated impacts frequently have some shortcomings. First, extreme events such as droughts and heat waves are often predefined through thresholds, restricting the class of meteorological events leading to the observed impacts. The choice of threshold for defining these extreme events is also often of meteorological and/or statistical nature and thus potentially unsuitable for the holistic identification of the associated impacts. Furthermore, impacts can arise from combinations of non-extreme events that might fall short of the threshold-based identification, thereby limiting the ability to account for key dynamics that determine the risk associated with compound events. Our study aims to overcome those shortcomings by linking climate events with their observed impacts in agriculture. We analyse wet and warm late winters followed by dry and hot springs, and the associated agricultural damages in Europe with the aim of reconstructing these compound events based on the observed impact. A first analysis is conducted for winter wheat impacts in France, the largest European winter wheat producer. We identify agro-climatic zones based on multivariate time series clustering and employ a regularized generalized canonical correlation analysis to identify the large-scale drivers of crop variability for these regions. The patterns that emerge from the analysis are characterized by wet and warm conditions in January and February linked to a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) state, followed by warm and dry conditions in April induced by a tripole with a blocking high over Central Europe. Using imbalanced random forests, we construct objective bounds and define thresholds to identify which temperatures are warm enough or which water balances are low enough to be associated with significant effect on crop yield reduction. Our results indicate that imbalanced random forests can predict these types of events reasonably well at the local scale, and that the derived thresholds are mostly lower than the commonly used thresholds for detecting similar extreme events. The latter illustrates that the combination of non-extreme climate events can indeed be detrimental to agricultural production in Europe, which is also crucial as the analysed types of events are predicted to occur more often in the future as a result of climate change. 
Study on Reservoir-caprock Configuration for Carbon Dioxide Sequestration in oil and gas reservoirs 
Authors: li hongyan , jiang youlu
Published: March 2024

Carbon capture and storage technology is a necessary means to achieve the temperature control goal of 1.5 degrees Celsius under the background of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutrality. The storage of carbon dioxide in oil and gas reservoirs has the advantages of high safety, large storage capacity, and less additional cost. The reservoir-caprock configuration can provide favorable space for the storage of carbon dioxide geological bodies. To make clear the distribution range of geological bodies suitable for carbon dioxide sequestration, taking the middle-south section of the eastern sag of Liaohe as an example, based on the model of the ratio of mud to ground and caprock effectiveness division, the control factors of caprock sealing were analyzed by entropy weight method combined with TOPSIS method, and the effective thickness of reservoir was determined by clarifying the relationship between reservoir lithology, physical properties, oil content and electricity. The results show that the lower limit of the effective caprock mud-to-ground ratio in the sand-mud interbedding sequence is 70.6%, and the sealing ability of caprock is mainly affected by the thickness of the fault and the thickness of the caprock single layer; The two sets of caprocks in the Shahejie Formation and Dongying Formation are relatively stable, with good fault-caprock configuration sealing, and the fault juxtaposition thickness in the Shahejie Formation is characterized by "thick in the north and thin in the south"; The effective reservoirs of the Dongying Formation are distributed in the whole region, the effective reservoirs of Es1 are distributed in the north of Rongxingtun, and the distribution range is smaller than that of the Dongying Formation, while the effective reservoirs of Es3 are mainly distributed in Huangyure area at the northern end of the study area, and the distribution range is further reduced. According to the reservoir-caprock configuration, carbon dioxide storage types can be divided into three types: shallow storage type, deep storage type, and multi-layer storage type. The lower caprock is well sealed and the lower effective thick reservoir controls the deep enrichment of carbon dioxide; The lower caprock is poorly sealed, and the effective thick reservoir in the middle or upper part controls the multi-layer enrichment of carbon dioxide; The lower caprock is poorly sealed, the upper caprock is well sealed, and the upper effective thick reservoir controls the shallow enrichment of carbon dioxide. The relationship between the effective thickness of the reservoir and the sealing ability of the caprock determines the vertical distribution series of carbon dioxide.
Spatiotemporal variation in surface deformation of the North Anatolian Fault Zone in the Düzce Region by Geodetic and Geophysical techniques
Authors: Zoroğlu Çağkan Serhun , Kaya Eken Tülay , Havazlı Emre , Bletery Quentin , Özener Haluk
Published: March 2024

Abstract Türkiye has a complex tectonic structure resulting from the northward movement of the African and Arabian plates towards the Anatolian plate relative to the Eurasian plate. Seismic energy is primarily released within the Anatolian plate by earthquakes along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), which is oriented east-west with a right-lateral strike-slip motion. Historical earthquake records suggest a westward migration of seismic energy release along this fault system through a series of earthquakes, beginning with the 1939 M7.9 Erzincan earthquake and culminating in the 1999 M>7 Izmit-Düzce ruptures. The 1999 Mw7.2 Düzce earthquake occurred three months after the 1999 Mw7.4 Izmit earthquake to the east leading to an eastward supershear rupture. We examine the potential correlation between crustal features, fault mechanisms, and inter-seismic loading parameters that impact surface deformation in Düzce. We analyzed spatio-temporal variation of the long-term surface deformation along the Düzce segment. We evaluated Sentinel-1 InSAR data for both ascending and descending orbits from 2014 to 2022, utilizing the InSAR Small Baseline Subset time series analysis technique to calculate horizontal and vertical displacements and the locking depth. Our findings indicate 25 mm/yr of slip rate on the Düzce Fault. We further utilize the previously estimated geoelectric characteristics of the crust by magnetotelluric data modeling that show strong resistivity variations from east to west on the Düzce rupture. Incorporating geodetic (e.g., InSAR-derived surface deformation) and geophysical (electrical resistivity, seismic velocity) constraints on the fault zone and its adjacent shed light on the impact of the physical characteristics of the crustal structure on the inter-seismic loading and surface creep parameters.  This project is funded by the Bogazici University with the BAP Project No SUP-18161.
UAV digital photogrammetry as support tool for transmission-based muography
Authors: Beni Tommaso , Borselli Diletta , Bonechi Lorenzo , Lombardi Luca , Gonzi Sandro , Melelli Laura , Turchetti Maria Angela , Fanò Livio , D'Alessandro Raffaello , Gigli Giovanni , Casagli Nicola
Published: March 2024

The employment of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) for digital photogrammetry applications (UAV-DP), together with satellite data, has emerged as a pivotal tool for conducting reliable muographic campaigns. This study aims to present a comprehensive workflow designed specifically to plan and support UAV-derived data for muon radiography objectives. Through a real case study conducted at the Etruscan necropolis of Palazzone (Umbria, Italy), this study shows the creation of high-resolution three-dimensional models of the ground surface/sub-surface by integrating UAV-DP, laser scanner and GPS-acquired data. The accuracy of these three-dimensional environment significantly influences the reliability of the simulated muon flux transmission, which is crucial for inferring the relative transmission values and estimating the density distributions. This study highlights the importance of UAV-derived data in the muography process and their potential to enhance or affect the outcomes of muon imaging results. Furthermore, it emphasizes the need for a multidisciplinary approach in muography applications, particularly focusing on the integration and utilization of UAV-based data to improve spatial environment reconstruction.
Uptake of methylglyoxal on a diversity of natural mineral dusts and proxies: Heterogeneous kinetics and uptake mechanism
Authors: Lostier Anais , Thevenet Frederic , Romanias Manolis N
Published: March 2024

Atmospheric aerosols are drivers of climate. Their impact is direct by scattering or absorbing solar radiation, and indirect, by serving as cloud condensation and ice nuclei. Once released into the atmosphere, aerosols can interact and/or react with gas-phase species thereby initiating a process known as chemical aging. This process tends to modify their surfaces. Mineral dust constitutes a significant part of the global atmospheric aerosol mass budget, contributing to almost half of the yearly particle emissions. Dust particles can traverse considerable distances, impacting remote areas from their sources. Despite the pivotal role of mineral dust in the atmosphere, considerable uncertainties persist regarding their influence on climate and air quality. This uncertainty primarily stems from a limited understanding of the fate of dust in the atmosphere and the underlying chemical processes they induce.The aim of this work is to explore the heterogeneous interaction of methylglyoxal (MGL) with natural mineral dust. MGL results from the oxidation of isoprene in the atmosphere and is regarded as a crucial precursor to secondary organic aerosols (SOA). Therefore, its atmospheric fate of significant consequence to Earth's climate. Uptake experiments were conducted in a Knudsen flow reactor, operating in the molecular flow regime, and coupled with a modulated molecular beam quadrupole mass spectrometer for real-time monitoring of gas-phase reactants and products. The uptake coefficients of MGL is determined on 29 different mineralogical origin surfaces, to elucidate the impact of chemical composition on the uptake efficiency of the dusts.  The initial uptake coefficients, γ0,is determined to range from 0.05 to 0.67. These values are in the same order of magnitude than reactive gases in the atmosphere, indicating a high affinity between MGL and mineral dust. A correlation between γ0 and Al/Si ratio of natural dust sample is evidenced and discussed. Furthermore, focusing on natural Gobi desert dust, the impact of MGL concentration (0.1 to 2,200 ppb) on γqss is determined. γqss increases as MGL concentration is decreased. Results revealed that the heterogeneous loss of MGL on dusts is a major atmospheric sink comparable to its gas-phase oxidation or photolysis. In addition, MGL uptake mechanism is studied on Gobi dust using in-situ DRIFT (Diffuse Reflectance Infrared Fourier transform) spectroscopy, providing useful information on interaction mechanisms. These findings offer novel insights into the atmospheric fate of MGL, providing a more comprehensive understanding of its heterogeneous atmospheric fate.
Uncertainty quantification for overshoots of tipping thresholds
Authors: Ritchie Paul , Lux-Gottschalk Kerstin
Published: March 2024

To tip or not to tip? Many subsystems of the Earth are at risk of undergoing abrupt transitions from their current stable state to a drastically different and often less desired state due to anthropogenic climate change. These so-called tipping events often present severe consequences for ecosystems and human livelihood that are difficult to reverse. One common mechanism for tipping to occur is via forcing and driving a nonlinear system beyond a critical threshold that signifies self-amplifying feedbacks inducing tipping. However, previous work has shown that it is possible to briefly overshoot a critical threshold and avoid tipping. Specifically, the peak distance of an overshoot and the time a system can spend beyond a threshold are governed by an inverse square law relationship. In the real world or complex models, critical thresholds and other system features determining the permitted overshoot are highly uncertain. In this presentation, we look at how such uncertainties affect the probability of tipping from the perspective of uncertainty quantification. We show the importance of constraining uncertainty in the location of the critical threshold and the linear restoring rate to the stable state to reduce the uncertainty in the probability of tipping. Using a simple box model for the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, we highlight the need to constrain the high uncertainty found in wind-driven fluxes represented by a diffusive time scale within the box model to reduce uncertainty in the tipping probability for overshoot scenarios. 
Assessing the influence of consolidation in marine sediment cores for Blue Carbon quantification
Authors: Walsh Phoebe , Long Mike , Grey Anthony , Svendsen Rasmus , Coughlan Mark
Published: March 2024

Blue Carbon traditionally refers to carbon buried and stored in coastal or terrestrial environments such as mangrove forests and seagrass meadows. However, marine sediments, like clays and sands, found on continental shelves, are increasingly being recognised as important Blue Carbon settings and are being included in national marine management plans.  To fully understand the importance of such environments and its potential to mitigate against climate change, a thorough understanding of the quantification of the carbon stored is required. This is performed through the analysis of marine sediment cores. Marine sediment cores are typically extracted by forcing a PVC pipe into the seafloor through varied methodologies. During the extraction process, the method itself can have adverse effects  on the sediment, including causing changes in profile integrity resulting in a shortening of the core profile through consolidation. This can increase the dry bulk density of the sediment, which is an important parameter in calculating carbon stock, resulting in an overestimation of results. There is a paucity of studies regarding the impacts these effects can have on the quantification of Blue Carbon in marine sediments. In this study, a set of cores were gathered from the same geographical location using three different offshore coring techniques, namely: gravity coring, vibro coring and box coring. These techniques are standard in offshore site investigations. Samples from these cores were used to assess the extent of the impact of consolidation on quantifying carbon stock measurements in marine sediments through several geotechnical techniques. These include evaluating parameters that directly influence consolidation in marine sediments, such as moisture content, Atterberg limits and particle size. Additionally, compressibility measurements, through oedometer testing, can help elucidate to what degree compaction may have taken place. Carbon stocks are calculated using total organic carbon and loss on ignition measurements, which will be compared across profiles from different coring techniques. Similarly, accumulation rates calculated using gamma spectrometry (e.g. 210Pb) allow for comparison across core profiles. These tests were performed across the three offshore coring techniques to determine which method of core extraction is optimal for Blue Carbon quantification.
Horizontal and vertical wind speed sampling using multirotor UAS aircraft
Authors: Bramati Matteo , Schön Martin , Savvakis Vasileios , Wang Yongtan , Bange Jens , Platis Andreas
Published: March 2024

The utilization of multirotor UAS aircraft for atmospheric data collection is an expanding field, and one method employed for measuring atmospheric wind speed is the tilt angle method. This method correlates the tilt angle assumed by the multicopter during hovering to compensate for aerodynamic drag forces with the atmospheric wind.At the Umweltphysik Group of Uni Tübingen, a cost-effective and easily replicable calibration method has been devised and tested. However, this approach overlooks the crucial vertical component of the wind, essential for calculating vertical turbulent fluxes.To address this limitation, a follow-up study proposes an analytical approach that involves calibrating relationships between wind speed and tilt angle, motor RPM and tilt angle, as well as vertical wind speed and RPM. The necessary data for this calibration can be obtained through telemetry from an open-source flight controller's log files.Accurate calibration of these relationships is ensured through real-world flight testing to maintain precision. Indoor tests or wind tunnel experiments might yield biased results due to interactions with walls, failing to accurately represent the aircraft's outdoor aerodynamic behavior.Considering environmental parameters is vital, as evidenced by notable differences between calibrations conducted in winter and summer. These variations underscore the necessity of accounting for environmental influences.Subsequently, the method will undergo further validation by flying the aircraft in close proximity to a sonic anemometer to assess its accuracy in measuring atmospheric parameters.
A Global Climate-Driven Stochastic Drought Model for Risk Assessment 
Authors: Shaylor Marie , Bruneau Nicolas , Joffrain Mathis , Azemar Frederic , Loridan Thomas
Published: March 2024

Drought affects people, agriculture, and businesses across all sectors in every populated continent on Earth, and with climate change, both drought frequency and duration are increasing globally. Losses of $124 Billion to the global economy over the last two decades (1998 - 2017) have been directly attributed to drought. Hence, it is vital to gain an accurate understanding of drought risk in the present and how it may change in the future. Here, we describe the development of a climate-driven drought model which provides a global view of drought risk for (re)insurers. First, a historical catalogue (1950-present) consisting of yearly aggregated drought severity and duration footprints is derived by combining a selection of state-of-the-art drought indexes over varied time scales. Second, leveraging this historical catalogue, a large stochastic set of drought footprints is generated via the use of Principle Component Analysis, in which the drought risk is conditioned to the climate state. The model is then deployed on historical climate conditions (ERA5) or alternative and future climate conditions (indicated by the CEMS-LENS multi-member reanalysis model (present-2100)). These products are critical to inform damage models in the (re)insurance sector, with the model thus far proving useful in predicting subsidence risk in a France-based use case. Showcased results will provide an evaluation of drought risk both in the historical and changing future climate, as well as a newly developed risk score metric based on merged severity and duration information.
Biocrusts mediate seasonal warming effects of soil N transformation in drylands
Authors: Hu Rui , Zhang Yafeng , Zhang Zhishan
Published: March 2024

Drylands are mostly covered by biocrusts and are sensitive to climate change, which will likely affect nitrogen (N) transformation. However, it remains unclear the response of N transformation-related variables (N transformation rates, microbial biomass, and enzyme activity) to warming in biocrust-dominated dryland ecosystems. Here, we examined three soil cover types (bare soil, cyanobacteria- and moss-dominated soil) over a full year as we conducted a warming treatment (open top chambers) in the Tengger Desert. In order to quantify the response of N transformation-related variables to warming, we defined the warming effects (WEs) as the increment of N transformation-related variable per- unit variation of temperature. Our results showed that the presence of biocrusts can significantly increase the WEs of soil N mineralization rates (Rmin), nitrification rates (Rnit), the content of microbial biomass carbon (MBC) and nitrogen (MBN), and the activities of soil nitrate reductase (S-NR) and urease (S-UE). Microbial biomass under biocrusts was more sensitive to warming followed by enzyme activity. Meanwhile, the WEs in spring and fall were higher than those in winter and summer. The cumulative rainfall was the driving factor affecting the seasonal change of WEs. Therefore, the defining and studying warming effects expand our understanding of seasonal dynamics of N transformation, microbial biomass and enzyme activity, and emphasize the important roles of biocrusts as modulators of N cycling under climate change in dryland ecosystems.
Modeling the effects of urbanization expansion on convective precipitation: Insights from Shanghai
Authors: Zhuang Qi , Koukoula Marika , Liu Shuguang , Zhou Zhengzheng , Peleg Nadav
Published: March 2024

With the expansion of large metropolitans and the increasing global population, there is a pressing need to have a better understanding of how cities affect extreme weather, especially heavy rainfall events that can potentially trigger urban floods. With the complex interplay and feedback between land, sea, and atmosphere, our understanding of how urbanization expansion impacts precipitation in coastal areas is limited. Here we use a high-resolution Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) convection-permitting model to simulate 24 summer convective storms over Shanghai, China. We simulated the storms for the present urban setting and considered additional 3 urban expansion scenarios. Our results show that diverse urban-induced precipitation anomalies occur over the Shanghai metropolis due to different urban-surroundings gradients of low-level temperature and water vapor. 37.5% of storms show a constant increase in precipitation accumulation in response to urban expansion, whereas 29% have the reverse trend. The findings provide the potential mechanisms of urban rainfall modification in areas where land and water interact, offering useful insights for urban planning and flood control strategies in Shanghai, as well as other rapidly urbanizing cities.
Paleoclimatic study of Kumlubent Lagoon based on Oxygen-18 and Carbon-13 isotope data from sequenced mollusc shells on the western coast of the Sea of Marmara, NW Türkiye
Authors: Tülümen Emin Berke , Tarı Ufuk , Olgun Kıyak Nazlı , Kapan Ürün Sevinç
Published: March 2024

Oxygen isotope (δ18O) and carbon isotope (δ13C) data obtained from marine carbonate shells allow the understanding of paleoclimatic conditions. The mass difference between the isotopes of an element leads to a change in the ratio of heavy and light isotopes within the structure of an organism due to certain events. In this study, we present the paleoclimatic findings from the analysis of fossils obtained from sediment cores of a lagoon on the Marmara coast, located in the coastal region of Kumlubent on the Gelibolu peninsula, Çanakkale.In the Kumlubent lagoon, two sediment cores were taken from depths of 3.40 m and 2.78 m respectively. The cores were mainly composed of gray sand material intercalating with distinct intervals of silt-size materials, sapropels, and layers of pebbles suggesting event-type sedimentations.   Morphological identification of the fossil shells in the sediment cores was examined by using light microscopy as well as a Scanning Electron Microscope (SEM). Oxygen and carbon isotope measurements in the carbonate shells were measured by Inductively Coupled Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) analyses.  The values obtained were converted to δ18O-δ13C values based on the ratio "18O:16O seawater-13C:12C" to track depletion and enrichment. Our results show that the marine fossil community in Kumlubent lagoon includes 35 different species and 25 genera. The abundance of species in the sediment cores varied significantly indicating possible intervals of high primary production. The most commonly found genus in the cores were Bittium species — in particular Bittium latreillii, Bittium reticulatum, and Bittium sp.— - which were selected for the oxygen and carbon isotope analyses. Using the isotopic behavior diagram constructed from the collected data, we investigated the relationship between the behavior of the δ18O isotope ratio and the dry periods of the environment in which the Bittium species, as observed in the recovered sediment cores. δ18O data in the ranged from -2.63‰ to -0.94‰, and δ13C values ranged from 0.25‰ to 1.98‰. Paleotemperature calculations for Kumlubent carbonate shells indicated seawater temperatures between 24.8°C and 32.0°C during the formation of the shell material. δ18O and δ13C values showed opposite increase-decrease patterns reflecting varying precipitation-evaporation and varying freshwater input in the Kumlubent region in the Sea of Marmara.