bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Gender Gaps in Education and Labor Market Outcomes in the United States: The Impact of Employers` Prejudice
Authors: Flabbi Luca , Tejada Mauricio
Published: March 2024

This paper makes three contributions to the existing literature. First, it provides descriptive evidence on gender differentials by education level in the US labor market over the last twenty years. Second, it uses the structural estimation of a search model of the labor market to identify and quantify the impact of employers' prejudice on labor market gender differentials. Third, it connects both the descriptive and the analytical findings to recent policy interventions in the US labor market and presents some policy experiments. The results show that prejudice may still have a role in explaining the evidence on gender differentials and there is at least one scenario where the possibility of the presence of prejudiced employers in the labor market has substantial effects. In particular, it is responsible for the reversal of the returns to schooling ranking in recent years and it may explain up to 44% of the gender wage gap of the top education group (Master and PhD) in 2005. Since prejudice is still important, policy interventions may be effective in attaining both efficiency and welfare gains. The paper is in favor of implementing an affirmative action policy because it is frequently able to close the gender gap without reducing overall welfare and because it is effective in targeting the group that should take center stage in the future debate about gender differentials: high-skilled, high-earners workers, who also have family responsibilities.
Is Inflation Targeting Still on Target?: The Recent Experience of Latin America
Authors: Velasco Andrés , Chang Roberto , Céspedes Luis Felipe
Published: March 2024

This paper reviews the recent experience of a half-dozen Latin American inflation targeting (IT) nations. Repeated and large deviations from the standard IT framework are documented: exchange market interventions have been lasting and widespread; the real exchange rate has often become a target of policy, though this target is seldom made explicit; a range of other non-conventional policy tools, especially changes in reserve requirements but occasionally taxes or restrictions on international capital movements, also came into common use. As in developed nations, during the 2008-2009 crisis issues of liquidity provision took center stage. A first evaluation of the emerging modified framework of monetary policy is also attempted. In general terms, the new approach seems to have been effective, at the very least since the region weathered the crisis reasonably well. But also, and perhaps more importantly, many questions remain about the desirability of non-conventional monetary policies in Latin America.
Credit Constraints, Sector Informality and Firm Investments: Evidence from a Panel of Uruguayan Firms
Authors: Gandelman Néstor , Rasteletti Alejandro
Published: March 2024

This paper explores whether the extent of informality in a sector affects a firm's investment decision directly or indirectly through a credit availability channel. The dataset used in the estimation of the econometric models consists of an unbalanced panel of Uruguayan firms for the period 1997-2008. The results suggest that financial restrictions affect investment decisions in Uruguay, as an increase in credit to the private sector translates into higher investment rates. A one percentage point increase in overall credit growth translates into a one half percent increase in investment rates. It is also found that, although there is no direct effect of informality on the firm investment decision, there is an indirect effect through the borrowing channel. More specifically, financial restrictions reduce the amount of investment undertaken by Uruguayan firms, the effect being smaller if the firm operates in a sector with lower informality.
The Impact of Western Hemisphere Free Trade Agreements on the Foreign Sector and Debt Sustainability
Authors: Machinea José Luis
Published: March 2024

This document is part of a series of papers commissioned by the Inter-American Development Bank for the Regional Policy Dialogue. The paper basically discusses the macroeconomic impacts of trade agreements between Latin American countries and the United States, whether they be bilateral or a result of the creation of a Free Trade Agreement of the Americas (FTAA). Taking into account that the greater impact of a trade agreement in the Western Hemisphere is linked to the participation of the United States, it is especially useful to analyze the experience of agreements which include countries that contrast strongly with regards to their relative development. Included in this category are "North-South" agreements or "North-North" agreements that include countries that are very different in regards to their relative development. NAFTA and the expansion of the European Union to include Eastern countries belong to the first category and the impact of the European Union on countries like Spain, Portugal, Greece and Ireland belong in the second. This is the latest version available.
Can Institutions Cure Clientelism?: Assessing the Impact of the Australian Ballot in Brazil
Authors: Gingerich Daniel
Published: March 2024

This paper examines how the adoption of the Australian ballot (AB), and ipso facto, the transition from the nominal to effective secret vote, shaped the nature of party politics in Brazil. Engaging the literature on political clientelism, the impact of the AB on three outcomes is studied: 1) the ideological leanings of voters at the ballot box; 2) the degree of electoral control enjoyed by local vote brokers; and 3) the capacity of citizens to effectively participate in the electoral process. In order to get leverage on these issues, the paper utilizes an original dataset -painstakingly assembled from regional electoral archives- which contains municipal-level vote returns for federal deputy and senate contests during the period before and after the AB's introduction in Brazil (1958-1962). The dataset exploits the fact that the AB was introduced at different times in different states and for different offices in the country, thereby creating an unprecedented opportunity to assess the impact of this institution. Using a triple difference-in-difference procedure, the study finds that the AB: 1) shifted the ideological balance of power from Right to Left; 2) did not greatly weaken the hand of vote brokers; and 3) greatly increased the proportion of wasted votes cast in elections.
A New Taxonomy of Sudden Stops: Which Sudden Stops Should Countries Be Most Concerned About?
Authors: Pedemonte Mathieu , Tavella Pilar , Cavallo Eduardo A. , Powell Andrew
Published: March 2024

This paper proposes a new taxonomy of Sudden Stops comprised of seven categories with definitions depending on the behavior of gross and net capital flows. The incidence of different types of Sudden Stops is tracked over time and the type of Sudden Stop related to economic performance. Sudden Stops in Net Flows associated with reductions in Gross Inflows are more disruptive than those where surges in (only) Gross Outflows dominate. The paper further discusses the mechanisms that might result in Sudden Stops in Gross Flows that are not Sudden Stops in Net Flows, such that shifts in financial assets or liabilities do not require a sharp current account adjustment. Still, it is found that Sudden Stops in Gross Inflows that do not provoke a sharp contraction in Net Flows may also be disruptive, including Sudden Stops that are driven by "other flows" -which include banking flows. The results suggest new avenues for research and future policy analysis.
Decentralization and Accountability: The Curse of Local Underdevelopment
Authors: Machado Fabiana
Published: March 2024

Decentralization of provision of public services has been an important item in the agenda of developing countries. While some scholars and practitioners argue that decentralization is associated with improvements in provision due to higher accountability, others note its potential pitfalls. In particular, decentralization to local communities characterized by poverty, low levels of education, and inequality may lead to low accountability and higher susceptibility to political capture. This paper explores these dynamics empirically, taking advantage of the fact that in Brazilian municipalities primary education is provided by schools under municipal as well as under state management. The performance of these two types of school in the same municipalities is compared in terms of their levels of inputs and the efficiency of service delivery using non-parametric data envelopment analysis (DEA). The results suggest that there are indeed drawbacks to decentralization in municipalities where inequality is higher and education and political participation are lower.
The Unemployment Subsidy Program in Colombia: An Assessment
Authors: Medina Carlos , Núñez Jairo , Tamayo Jorge Andrés
Published: March 2024

This paper assesses the effects of the Colombian Unemployment Subsidy (US), which includes benefits as well as training for some recipients. Using regression discontinuity and matching differences-in-differences estimators, the study finds that participation in the labor market, earnings of beneficiaries, and household income do not increase, and for some populations decrease during the 18 months after leaving the US program. Enrollment in formal health insurance falls. Effects on male heads of household include reductions in their earnings, decreases in their labor participation, and increases in their unemployment rates. The study also finds a small though statistically significant positive effect on beneficiaries¿ school attendance, but none on their children¿s weight or height at birth. The results are sensitive to the type of training that beneficiaries receive. Overall, the program serves more as a mechanism for smoothing consumption and providing social assistance than for increasing labor market efficiency.
Why don't All Exporters Benefit from Free Trade Agreements?: Estimating Utilization Costs
Authors: Ulloa Alfie , Wagner Rodrigo
Published: March 2024

Free Trade Agreements (FTA) attract significant interest, but after these treaties are signed not all exporters use them. We provide a model of heterogeneous utilization, also developing a novel method to estimate treaty-utilization costs. We later apply the model to estimate the evolution utilization costs for the FTA between the US and a small open economy, Chile. Consistent with other studies, we find that utilization is indeed partial (on average 67% on the first year of the treaty, with 10 percentage points more at the third year). This made tariff revenues to the US 10% higher than expected with full utilization. Our simple structural model identifies costs by exploiting the indifference condition for the smallest firm that uses the treaty. Empirically we find that estimated costs were very heterogeneous across products. For almost half the products the cost was not binding for any exporter. However, when the FTA started, the 75-th percentile of utilization cost was around US$3,000, requiring shipments above $80,000 to justify using the treaty. These costs decreased by 60-80% in the following years, consistent with models of learning about treaty use. As remarked in our model, small exporters that do not use the trade agreement could even suffer when large firms have the option of using the treaty, since the latter increase exports and may push up factor prices for the industry.
Institutions for Effective Business-Government Collaboration: Micro Mechanisms and Macro Politics in Latin America
Authors: Schneider Ben Ross
Published: March 2024

What makes for effective cooperation between government and business in industrial policy? Core research questions on the institutional design of arrangements for business-government interactions focus on three main functions: i) maximizing the benefits of dialogue and information exchange; ii) motivating participation through authoritative allocation; and iii) minimizing unproductive rent seeking. Countries with more experiences of public-private collaboration (PPC) tend to have more pragmatic governments and better organized and informally networked private sectors. Effective cooperation also depends on the macro context, in particular the nature of the political system and the alternative avenues it provides for business politicking, especially through parties, networks and appointments, the media, and campaign finance. Lastly, the structure and strategies of big domestic businesses -mostly diversified, family-owned business groups- affects their preferences and interest in collaborating in industrial policy.
The Effects of Air Pollution on Educational Outcomes: Evidence from Chile
Authors: Vela Mauricio A. , Miller Sebastián J.
Published: March 2024

In addition to the morbidity and mortality concerns of outdoor air pollution, studies have shown that air pollution also generates problems for children`s cognitive performance and human capital formation. High concentrations of pollutants can affect children`s learning process by exacerbating respiratory illnesses, fatigue, absenteeism and attention problems. The purpose of this work is to analyze the possible contemporary effects of PM10 and other different air pollutants on standardized test scores in Chile. It examines results for 3,880 schools in the Metropolitan, Valparaiso and O'Higgins regions for children in fourth, eight and tenth grades between 1997 and 2012. Data for particulate matter (PM10 and PM2. 5), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxide (NOx) and ozone (O3) were interpolated at school level using a kriging methodology. The results suggest that higher annual P M10 and O3 levels are clearly associated with a reduction in test scores. Nonetheless, as of 2012 many municipalities in these Chilean regions are still exceeding the annual P M10 international standard quality norm (50 micrograms per cubic meter) by 15 micrograms per cubic meter on average. Efforts to reduce pollution below this norm in the most polluted municipalities would account for improvements in reading and math test scores of 3.5 percent and 3.1 percent of a standard deviation, respectively.
Building Stability in Latin American Financial Markets
Authors: Rojas-Suárez Liliana , Weisbrod Steven R.
Published: March 2024

This paper argues that the investor reluctance to make long-term commitments to Latin American financial markets results from experience. In the 1980s, while ex ante real interest rates on Latin American financial assets were usually high, ex-post real interest rates were often highly negative. In the 1990s, policymakers instituted stabilization programs and structural reforms that have improved the environment in which financial markets operate. Based on a review of experiences in the region, this paper shows that, when these opportunities are taken, investor confidence in long-term markets is strengthened.
Financial Liberalization and Policy Challenges
Authors: Dooley Michael P.
Published: March 2024

There is growing discontent with the conventional wisdom concerning economic policy. The unhappy fact seems to be that a stable macroeconomic environment may be necessary but not sufficient to coax the desired outcomes from liberalized financial systems. This paper reviews several promising extensions of the conventional model and discusses their policy implications.
Industrial Policy in Latin America and the Caribbean at the Turn of the Century
Authors: Melo Alberto
Published: March 2024

This survey of industrial policies in Latin American and the Caribbean makes two basic claims, namely: 1) that the late 1980s and the entire decade of the 1990s represented a transition from the industrial policies of the import substitution model to industrial policies suitable for open national economies in a more integrated world economy; and 2) that this transition period has not concluded and, consequently, it is premature to pass judgment on the effectiveness of the stillemerging set of policies.
Persistent Poverty and Excess Inequality: Latin America, 1970-1995
Authors: Londoño Juan Luis , Székely Miguel
Published: March 2024

The objective of this work is to assess the changes in poverty and inequality that have taken place in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1970 to 1995, with special emphasis on the 1990s. The main distinctive characteristic of the study is that rather than focusing on individual country experiences, as most of the literature on this subject has done, we produce aggregate indicators for the whole region.
Napoleon, Bourses, and Growth in Latin America
Authors: Levine Ross
Published: March 2024

The value of equity market transactions in emerging economies soared from about 2 percent of the world total in 1986 to 12 percent in 1996. This boom was accompanied by an explosion of international capital flows, especially flows into developing country stock markets. Moreover, while equity flows were a negligible part of capital flows to emerging markets a decade ago, equity flows now represent about 20 percent of private capital flows to developing nations.
Wholesale Payments Systems and Financial Discipline, Efficiency, and Liquidity
Authors: Folkerts-Landau David
Published: March 2024

The experience of a large number of countries since the mid-1970s has demonstrated the limited potential for activist monetary and fiscal policies to influence real macroeconomic performance on a sustained basis. Given the central role of the financial sector in pricing and allocating capital and risk, attention has focused on the architecture of this sector. Heading the reform agenda now are issues pertaining to the relation between the central bank, commercial banks and the wholesale payments system, the financial supervisory and regulatory environment, the development of capital markets, pension reforms, and risk management. This paper considers the lessons that are emerging from payments system reform currently underway in some major industrial countries.
Varieties of Capital-Market Crises
Authors: Calvo Guillermo A.
Published: March 2024

In this post-modern world of high capital mobility, countries are being disciplined by the anonymous capital market. One view of the situation -perhaps the prevalent view among economists- is that Wall Street gets into your hair because you are running an unsustainable economic program and crises are bound to happen. A polar view is that countries are at the mercy of the capital market. This paper attempts to bring these views under one roof, putting special emphasis on balance-of-payment crises.
Achieving Stability in Latin American Financial Markets in the Presence of Volatile Capital Flows
Authors: Rojas-Suárez Liliana , Weisbrod Steven R.
Published: March 2024

This paper considers whether reserve requirements have been effective in controlling excessive liquidity growth. It also discusses the adequacy of bank supervisory standards, such as capital to risk-weighted asset standards, in controlling expansion of risky bank credit that often accompanies excessive liquidity expansion.
Climate Change Impacts on Birth Outcomes in Brazil
Authors: Alves Denisard , Pereda Paula C. , Menezes Tatiane A. de
Published: March 2024

This paper attempts to identify the climatic effect on birth outcomes in Brazil and, thus, to predict the potential impact of climate change. Panel data models indicate that excess and lack of rainfall have the most important harmful effects on newborns' health; temperature stresses and low relative humidity also have effects. The use of climate change forecasts for Brazil suggests a possible increase of 305 neonatal deaths annually and, for families in the Primary Care Program, three thousand additional low-weight births each year. The paper further examines public policy's role in minimizing the effects of extreme weather. Mothers' education, sanitation access and health care assistance to pregnant women represent the main instruments for addressing neonatal health problems.
Public-Private Collaboration on Productive Development in Chile
Authors: Benavente José Miguel , Zahler Andrés , Goya Daniel , Bravo Ortega Claudio
Published: March 2024

This Working Paper provides an in-depth analysis of public-private collaboration (PPC) in Chilean productive development policies (PDPs) through five case studies under two specific polices: the Technology Consortia Program and the National Cluster Policy. The analysis is based on a set of more than 30 semi-structured, in-depth interviews, and is complemented by official written information on the workings of each of the instruments and particular cases. The most significant conclusion that emerges is the importance of having institutions that allow the government to learn from the implementation of new policies in order to improve them over time.
Remittances and the Impact on Crime in Mexico
Authors: Corbacho Ana , Brito Steve , Osorio Rivas Rene
Published: March 2024

This working paper studies the effect of remittances from the United States on crime rates in Mexico. The topic is examined using municipal-level data on the percent of household receiving remittances and homicides per 100,000 inhabitants. Remittances are found to be associated with a decrease in homicide rates. Every 1 percent increase in the number of households receiving remittances reduces the homicide rate by 0.05 percent. Other types of crimes are analyzed, revealing a reduction in street robbery of 0.19 percent for every 1 percent increase in households receiving remittances. This decrease is also observed using a state-level panel in another specification. The mechanisms of transmission could be related to an income effect or an incapacitation effect of remittances increasing education, opening job opportunities, and/or reducing the amount of time available to engage in criminal activities.
Does Firm Heterogeneity Impact the Effectiveness of Carbon Taxes? Experiments in Argentina and Mexico
Authors: Chisari Omar O. , Miller Sebastián J.
Published: March 2024

This paper examines the effectiveness of carbon taxes on macroeconomic performance when manufacturing firms have the opportunity to change their scale of operation and degree of formality. The hypothesis is that when tax evasion or elusion is possible, it cannot be ruled out that emissions increase rather than decrease due to the reallocation of resources from the rest of manufacturing towards informal small-scale firms. When informality is high, industry could adapt to carbon taxes by reducing the scale of operation of big firms and increasing the number of small firms. However, when taxes are enforceable in all types of firms, there is a cost in terms of GDP and employment, since small-scale firms are more labor intensive. For numerical experiments, two CGE models calibrated for Argentina and Mexico are used. The 'domestic leakage' is found to be more relevant for Argentina than for Mexico.
Party Age and Party Color: New Results on the Political Economy of Redistribution and Inequality
Authors: Keefer Philip , Milanovic Branko
Published: March 2024

This working paper advances research on inequality with unique, new data on income distribution in 61 countries, including 20 Latin American countries, to explore the effects of political parties on redistribution. First, consistent with a central, but still contested, assumption of the political economy literature, left-wing governments redistribute more. In addition, consistent with recent research on the importance of party organization and the organizational differences between younger and older parties, older left-wing parties are more likely to internalize the long-run costs of redistribution and to be more credible in their commitment to redistribution, leading them to redistribute less. With entirely different data, the paper also provides evidence on mechanisms: left-wing governments not only redistribute more; they also tax more. Older left-wing parties, though, tax less than younger ones.
Local Electoral Rewards from Centralized Social Programs: Are Mayors Getting the Credit?
Authors: Rodríguez Chamussy Lourdes
Published: March 2024

This paper uses variation in the timing of the Mexican antipoverty program's introduction across municipalities to identify its impact on the share of votes for the local incumbent party. Evidence is found that voters reward the mayor's party for the central benefit to their constituencies, accounting on average for 2.8 additional percentage points in the share of votes for the mayor's party. The analysis of party alignment shows that this electoral effect cannot be explained as a reward for the federal incumbent in local elections. Alternative explanations are examined, and it is shown that the effect for the local incumbent is heterogeneous for the different political parties and varies with characteristics of the municipalities, being stronger where the mayor faced more contestable elections, in capital cities of the states and in predominantly urban, more educated and relatively wealthier municipalities. Findings are consistent with the hypothesis that politicians have incentives to engage in signaling strategies to link themselves to the transfer program.
Meaningful Talk
Authors: Streb Jorge M. , Torrens Gustavo
Published: March 2024

This paper develops a semiotic-inferential model of verbal communication for incomplete information games: a language is seen as a set of conventional signs that point to types, and the credibility of a message depends on the strategic context. Formally, there is an encoding-decoding step where the receiver can understand the sender's message if and only if a common language is used, and an inferential step where the receiver may either trust the message's literal meaning or disregard it when updating priors. The epistemic requirement that information be transmitted through the literal meaning of the message uttered leads to an equilibrium concept distinct from a Perfect Bayesian Equilibrium, ruling out informative equilibria where language is not used in its ordinary sense. The paper also proposes a refinement by which the sender selects among equilibria if all sender types are willing to play the same equilibrium.
Training Vouchers and Labor Market Outcomes in Chile
Authors: Novella Rafael , Kaplan David S. , Vazquez Claudia , Rucci Graciana
Published: March 2024

This paper evaluates the impact of the Bono Trabajador Activo, a training voucher program in Chile, on workers' labor market outcomes. Using detailed administrative datasets of the National Employment Service and the Unemployment Insurance System, we apply difference-in-difference and IV estimators to measure these effects. Our main results indicate that the voucher program has an overall negative impact on employment and earnings, particularly among individuals who expect to change economic sector. In contrast, we find that the program improves labor outcomes for females, particularly for those with lower education. The voucher program also improves employment duration and mobility across economic sectors.
Information and Communication Technologies, Prenatal Care Services and Neonatal Health
Authors: Maffioli Alessandro , Anta Rafael , Perez Lu Jose , Beuermann Diether , Rodrigo Maria Fernanda , García Patricia J.
Published: March 2024

We evaluate the effectiveness of sending text messages to pregnant women containing appointment reminders and suggestions for healthy behaviors during pregnancy. Receiving messages had an overall positive effect of 5 percent on the number of prenatal care visits attended. Moreover, for women who live close to their assigned health center and who have higher educational attainment, the intervention positively affected vitamin intake compliance, APGAR scores, and birth weight. Evidence suggests that reminders are more effective among those who are more able to understand the future benefits of preventive care (more educated) and who face lower transaction costs of going to prenatal care checkups (located near health centers). No evidence of geographical spillover effects was found.
Religion as an Unemployment Insurance and the Basis of Support for Public Safety Nets: The Case of Latin America and the Caribbean
Authors: Ruprah Inder J. , Pecha Camilo
Published: March 2024

This paper explores the role of religion in mitigating the degree to whichunemployment reduces subjective well-being and it examines its support of social programs. The paper goes beyond existing literature in three ways: It extends existing literature to Latin America and Caribbean countries; it explicitly includes analysis of two confounders (social capital and personal traits) ignored in existing literature; and it moves beyond correlation by using the propensity score method to tease out a causal relation between religion and well-being. We find that religion acts as a buffer: Unemployed religious people are relatively happier than are nonreligious unemployed people. However, in contrast with the existing literature, we find that religious people are relatively more supportive of public social policy.
Experimental Evidence on the Long Term Impacts of a Youth Training Program
Authors: Rosas-Shady David , Ripani Laura , Kluve Jochen
Published: March 2024

This paper presents the results of a randomized controlled trial on the long-term impacts of a youth training program. The empirical analysis estimates labor market impacts six years after the training - including long-term labor market trajectories of young people - and, it is one of the first experimental long-term evaluation of a youth training program outside the US. We are able to track a representative sample of more than 3,200 youths at the six-year follow-up. Our empirical findings document significant impacts on the formality of employment, particularly for men, and impacts for both men and women in Santo Domingo, the capital of the Dominican Republic. The long-term analysis shows that these impacts are sustained and growing over time. There are no impacts on average employment, which is consistent with the low unemployment in countries with high informality and no unemployment insurance. Looking at the local labor market context, the analysis suggests that skills training programs work particularly well in more dynamic local contexts, where there is actual demand for the skills provided.
Sharing a Ride on the Commodities Roller Coaster: Common Factors in Business Cycles of Emerging Economies
Authors: Fernandez Andres , Gonzalez Andres , Rodriguez Diego
Published: March 2024

Fluctuations in commodity prices are an important driver of business cycles in small emerging market economies (EMEs). This paper documents how these fluctuations correlate strongly with the business cycle in EMEs. A commodity sector is then embedded into a multi-country EMEs business cycle model where exogenous fluctuations in commodity prices follow a common dynamic factor structure and coexist with other driving forces. The estimated model assigns to commodity shocks 42 percent of the variance in income, of which a considerable part is linked to the common factor. A further amplification mechanism is a spillover effect from commodity prices to risk premia.
Sex, Violence, and Drugs Among Latin American and Caribbean Adolescents: Do Engaged Parents Make a Difference?
Authors: Sierra Ricardo , Ruprah Inder J. , Sutton Heather
Published: March 2024

This paper uses data from the Global School-based Student Health Survey toinvestigate the prevalence of health risk behaviors, in particular substance use, risky sexual behavior, and violence among adolescents in 15 Latin American and Caribbean countries. Using logit regressions and meta-analysis, we find that having parents engaged in raising their children is associated with significantly reduced problem behaviors in adolescents. That said, in the Caribbean the prevalence of health risk behaviors in adolescents is higher and engaged parents is lower than in Latin America, and the correlation between engaged parenting and reduced risk behaviors is generally weaker. Nonetheless, for both subgroups of countries, engaged parents do appear to make a difference.
Trust No One?: Security and International Trade
Authors: Schaur Georg , Volpe Martincus Christian , Carballo Jerónimo
Published: March 2024

Security concerns in a context of increasingly segmented supply chains haveled to stricter border control measures, which may potentially negatively affect international trade. Customs around the world have therefore implemented security-motivated certification programs to facilitate licit trade. These programs offer trustworthy trading firms, i.e., Authorized Economic Operators (AEOs), several advantages in the administrative processing of their shipments including less frequent physical inspections and expedited customs clearance. In this study we focus on Mexico's AEO Program NEEC. In particular, we evaluate the impact of this program by primarily carrying out differences-in-differences estimations on highly disaggregated firm-level data that cover the entire universe of export and import transactions of the country over the period 2009-2014. Estimation results suggest that NEEC has been associated with less physical inspections and shorter clearance times and has thereby favored increased firms' exports. Effects seem to be stronger on the frequency of shipments and on consumer goods, industrial inputs, and capital goods.
Sex-Differences in Language and Socio-emotional Skills in Early Childhood
Authors: Bando Rosangela , López Bóo Florencia , Li Xia
Published: March 2024

This study explores sex differences in language and socio-emotional skills. It focuses on children 7 months old to 6 years old in Chile in 2012 and Nicaragua in 2013. A focus on young children allowed for ruling out a set of environmental and identity effects to explain the gap. Females had an advantage in both countries and both dimensions. Males in Chile scored at -0.13 standard deviations (SD) in language in the distribution of females. In addition, males scored at -0.20 SD in socio-emotional skills. The gaps in Nicaragua were not statistically different to those in Chile. Thus geographical and cultural variation across the two countries did not affect the gap. Within countries, variation in family characteristics, parenting practices and health investments did not explain the gap either. These findings shed light on the role of biological and environmental factors to explain sex gaps. The identification of the role of these factors is necessary to inform policy.
It is Mainly About Where You Work!: Labor Demand in the Colombian Manufacturing Sector
Authors: Castellani Francesca , Obando Nataly , Arango Luis Eduardo
Published: March 2024

Using the Colombian Annual Manufacturing Survey (EAM) between 2000 and 2013, this paper investigates the existence of heterogeneity in the labor demand within the industrial sector. Long run own-price, output and TFP elasticities vary across a variety of dimensions such as regions, sectors and plant sizes depending on workers' skills and contract modalities (open-ended or temporary). Hence, it matters where one works. Such disparities should be taken into account in the design of policies that promote labor market performance, as outcomes, beyond intentions, are unlikely to be homogenous.
Learning about Oneself: The Effects of Performance Feedback on School Choice
Authors: Frisancho Verónica , Bobba Matteo
Published: March 2024

This paper designs and implements a field experiment that provides students from less advantaged backgrounds with individualized feedback on academicperformance during the transition from middle to high school. The intervention reduces the gap between expected and actual performance, as well as shrinks the variance of individual ability distributions. Guided by a simple Bayesian model, the paper empirically documents the interplay between variance reductions and mean changes of beliefs in shaping curricular choices. The shift in revealed preferences on high school tracks enabled by the intervention affects schooling trajectories, with better-performing students being assigned into more academically oriented options.
Corporate Currency Risk and Hedging in Chile: Real and Financial Effects
Authors: Hansen Erwin , Alvarez Roberto
Published: March 2024

This paper examines a panel (1994-2014) of Chilean non-financial firms, both publicly listed and private, which was built to analyze the determinants of the use of foreign currency debt and their potential consequences for firm investment and profitability. It is found that foreign assets and the use of FX derivatives are positively associated with firms' use of foreign currency debt. Also, depending on the estimation method, exports appear as an important determinant of the use of foreign currency debt. In terms of the potential effect of holding foreign currency debt on firms' performance after an exchange rate devaluation, no statistical differential effect is identified on either firm profitability or firm investment. This (lack of) result is interpreted as evidence that firms match liabilities and assets denominated in foreign currency and that firms actively involved in hedging aim to reduce their exposure to foreign exchange fluctuations.
Patterns, Trends and Policy Implications of Private Spending on Skills Development in Mexico and the United States
Authors: Mendoza Pamela , Székely Miguel
Published: March 2024

This paper explores families' investment in skills development through education in a high-inequality, low-education quality country such as Mexico, comparing it to a lower-inequality, higher-quality education country such as the United States. The paper uses a series of high-quality Household Income and Expenditure Surveys for both countries spanning around 20 years and different methodological approaches. Of particular interest is the analysis of education expenditure patterns along the income distribution. Policy implications for both cases are discussed. While in Mexico stimulating private spending in education through public resources might be regressive, the opposite might be the case in the United States.
Organizational Efficency or Bureaucratic Quagmire: Do Quality at Entry Assessments Improve Project Performance?
Authors: Corral Leonardo , McCarthy Nancy
Published: March 2024

Do quality at entry assessments enhance the delivery of development projects? In this paper we take advantage of approval and execution systems in place at the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) to examine whether projects that have higher quality at entry--captured through grading scores provided by a checklist--perform better in terms of project implementation performance indicators. Implementation indicators include measures based on actual versus planned schedule of activities and cost outlays, as well as percent of loan disbursed. The analysis suggests higher scores on project logic and economic analyses at entry have had a positive impact on project performance. However, monitoring and evaluation and impact assessment scores had limited impacts on performance. The evidence supports the hypothesis that the use of a checklist can be an effective framework for assessing quality at entry for IDB projects, though there is scope to improve the checklist for certain indicators.
Understanding Financial Fluctuations and Their Relation to Macroeconomic Stability
Authors: Pagliacci Carolina , Guarata Nora
Published: March 2024

This paper examines how financial fluctuations and macroeconomic stability interact in the case of Venezuela, acknowledging that financial conditions deteriorating the macroeconomic environment can arise with both good and bad macroeconomic performance. An empirical methodology is provided that constructs two indexes, which are fully interpretable and are constructed with a minimum set of assumptions applied to a large number of financial time series. Structural interpretation of indexes is pursued using a structural VAR (SVAR) that associates macroeconomic stability with financial indexes. For Venezuela, a deterioration of procyclical financial conditions relates to financial margin reductions and expansions in banks’ balance sheets, which are mostly triggered by unexpected increases in net primary money creation. Such expansions tend to appear in situations of declining macroeconomic stability. Worse countercyclical financial conditions are instead associated with situations of rising bank profitability, deleveraging and increased banking instability. In this case, fragility tends to materialize in periods of ameliorated macroeconomic stability.
Making International Financial Integration Work for Low-Saving Countries
Authors: Marzani Matías , Cavallo Eduardo A. , Fernández-Arias Eduardo
Published: March 2024

Deeper financial integration is expected to enable low-saving countries to increase domestic investment but also to increase crisis risks by facilitating the accumulation of risky foreign liabilities. This paper explores the connections between financial integration, investment and crisis risk to assess this tradeoff. It confirms expectations but also finds that the accumulation of safe foreign assets that financial integration brings is an important risk offset that in many cases even eliminates the risk factor from the tradeoff altogether. Furthermore, it shows that the risk features of assets and liabilities depend on their type. Ultimately, whether international financial integration is in fact a reliable remedy for individual countries critically depends on the portfolio composition of their foreign assets and liabilities.
Is Results-Based Aid More Effective than Conventional Aid?: Evidence from the Health Sector in El Salvador
Authors: Celhay Pablo , Martinez Sebastian , Bernal Pedro
Published: March 2024

Results-based aid (RBA) models link funds to outcomes, rather than paying for inputs. Despite their theoretical appeal and recent adoption by donors and multilateral development banks, there is limited empirical evidence supporting this form of aid for national governments. We estimate the effects of a RBA model using a natural experiment in El Salvador, where the same community health intervention was implemented in 98 municipalities using one of three financing models. The Salud Mesoamerica Initiative funded fourteen municipalities with a RBA model that partially conditions funds on the attainment of externally measured maternal and child health targets. Fifty-four municipalities funded inputs using conventional aid and thirty had national funds. Using a difference-in-difference approach and national health systems data we find that preventive health services increased by 19.8% in conventional aid municipalities and by 42% in RBA municipalities compared to national funds, suggesting that the results-based conditionality roughly doubled aid effectiveness. Effects are driven by increases in maternal and child preventive services incentivized by the RBA model. Rather than diverting resources from other populations, we find that the expansion of health services under RBA also benefited men and the elderly, not explicitly incentivized by the results model. While data on final health outcomes are not available, our results on proxy measures point to potential improvements in population health. The effects appear to have been driven by a more rapid expansion of health infrastructure and qualified personnel by motivated national authorities.
La Formación de los Economistas en América Latina
Authors: Lora Eduardo , Ñopo Hugo R.
Published: March 2024

En este artículo se presenta una visión comparada de la formación de economistas en cinco países de América Latina. Para tal fin, se analizan la currícula, los libros de texto comúnmente utilizados, la dedicación de los profesores, los métodos de enseñanza, y el uso de tecnologías y herramientas computacionales. Así mismo, siguiendo el enfoque de Colander (2005), se aplica una encuesta a estudiantes de esta carrera para diseñar un perfil socioeconómico de los mismos e indagar acerca de sus actitudes y opiniones. Dentro de las regularidades encontradas para los cinco países, es de resaltar la falta de conexión entre las expectativas de los estudiantes sobre las demandas de los mercados de trabajo y las demandas efectivas de economistas por sectores de empleo.
Las Igualas Médicas Frente a Seguro Social (Estudio de la Organización Industrial de los Servicios de Salud en la República Dominicana)
Authors: Santana Isidoro
Published: March 2024

Los servicios médicos del seguro social y las igualas médicas privadas son sistemas de provisión de servicios prepagados de salud. El primero se organiza bajo la modalidad de producción estatal, con una gestión centralizada, cotizaciones obligatorias y sin posibilidad de elección del proveedor por parte del usuario. No obstante, el segundo se trata de entidades privadas, gestión descentralizada, regidas por contratos privados sin regulación estatal, y financiamiento voluntario por parte del cliente. Mediante la investigación se trata de determinar cómo los elementos que definen la estructura industrial, tales como propiedad, cantidad y tipo de proveedores condicionan la asignación de los recursos, cunatía y estructura de costos, productividad y eficiencia operativa, y cómo esto se traduce en términos del resultado final de la provisión del servicio. En el estudio se trata de evaluar la percepción que tienen los destinatarios del servicio sobre la calidad del mismo. También se intenta, a través de estadísticas limitadas, determinar la magnitud del mercado cubierta por ambos subsistemas y evaluar las motivaciones de los demandantes.
La economía política de las reformas institucionales en el Perú: Los casos de educación, salud y pensiones
Authors: Eyzaguirre Hugo , Pollarolo Pierina , Palacios Rosa María , Ortiz de Zevallos Gabriel
Published: March 2024

El Perú experimentó entre 1990 y 1995 uno de los procesos de estabilización, liberalización, desregulación y privatización más ambiciosos de la región, en el marco de un contexto de "extraordinary politics", donde las capacidades de veto de diversos actores políticos tradicionales, partidos políticos, sindicatos, etc.; habían quedado reducidas a su mínima expresión. El presente estudio analiza una serie de hipótesis respecto de qué factores viabilizaron o impidieron reformas en áreas tan sensibles como educación, salud y régimen de pensiones, y busca aislar lecciones de estas experiencias que sean útiles también para otros países. Las dificultades que enfrentaron los casos de pensiones y salud, así como el fracaso en educación, demuestran que, aún cuando un gobierno tiene el poder necesario para llevar a cabo las reformas, la viabilidad política de este tipo de acciones nunca es sencilla. Cabe señalar que este estudio focaliza su atención en la identificación de factores y estrategias que facilitaron o entorpecieron la viabilidad política de reformas institucionales, dejando de lado otros objetivos deseables en el campo político.
La violencia en Venezuela: Dimensionamiento y políticas de control
Authors: Márquez Patricia , Camardiel Alberto , Castillo Anabel , Pérez Perdomo Rogelio , Zubillaga Veronica , De Armas Edoardo , González Natascha , Briceño-León Roberto , Navarro Juan Carlos , Malpica Claudia , Avila Olga
Published: March 2024

En la presentación de este trabajo se optado por comenzar con la fuente de conocimiento más obvia, las estadísticas policiales. En la primera parte se analizaron las dificultades de trabajar con ellas y el uso que se ha hecho. En la segunda parte, se analizan los datos que proporciona esta fuente. En la última, los datos de otras fuentes, de otras voces que nos permiten percibir las limitaciones de las estadísticas policiales y profundizar el conocimiento: una encuesta de victimización y los datos de la morgue de Caracas.