THEORETICAL APPROACHES AND METHODS OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF FOREIGN (INBOUND) TOURIST FLOWS (ON THE EXAMPLE OF UKRAINE)
Authors:   Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University, Chernivtsi, Ukraine, Korol Oleksandr Dmytrovych , Skutar Tetiana Dmytrivna ,   Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University, Chernivtsi, Ukraine, Krul Halyna Yaroslavivna ,   Yuriy Fedkovych Chernivtsi National University, Chernivtsi, Ukraine
Published: November 2024

Purpose. The purpose of the article is the development and approbation of the theoretical and methodological approaches to the study of the international tourist arrivals and tourism receipts for a certain destination country that is conducted on the basis of the analysis of its inbound tourist flows as aggregated ones, that is, by the countries of origin of tourists. Methods. The research is based on the statistical analysis of data, in particular the construction and analysis of time series of the total number of tourist arrivals to the destination country by the countries of origin of tourists, correlation analysis. Correlation analysis is conducted to establish the closeness of the relationship between: 1) the dynamics of the total number of departures from a certain country of origin of tourists and the dynamics of their arrivals to the destination country; 2) the dynamics of arrivals from different countries of origin of tourists among themselves; 3) the dynamics of the number of arrivals from a certain country of origin and the total number of arrivals to the destination. The study of the inbound tourism structure involves the analysis of the share of arrivals by the top countries of origin of tourists. When studying the dynamics of tourism receipts, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was used to convert current prices to fixed ones for a base year to eliminate the effect of inflation. Results. The methodology that involves 2 levels of the research of inbound tourist flows has been developed. On the first, the analysis of the overall dynamics of inbound tourism of the destination country in the regional context is carried out, and its development is also classified. On the second level (deeper) the inbound tourism is considered as aggregated one estimated by the number of arrivals to separate countries of origin of tourists. The research is based on the analysis of the structure of arrivals to the destination country, involves the study of the dynamics of arrivals by the top countries of origin of tourists, as well as the seasonality of arrivals and the profitability of inbound tourism. The proposed methodology was tested on the example of the analysis of inbound tourist flows in Ukraine. The factors which determined fluctuations in the dynamics of tourist arrivals to Ukraine in 1996–2019 were analyzed, and the reasons for the low profitability of inbound tourism were identified. The structural analysis of inbound tourism in Ukraine showed the predominance of tourists from the neighboring countries. Scientific novelty. The scientific novelty is in the implementation of the methodology for the study of the international tourist arrivals and tourism receipts for a certain destination country that is conducted on the basis of the analysis of its inbound tourist flows as aggregated ones, that is, by the countries of origin of tourists. The mathematical statistics and time series method are used to analyze tourism flows. Practical significance. The tested methodology can be used to study international tourist flows for other countries.