bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Ethical Codes in Humanitarian Emergencies: From Practice to Research?
Authors: Black Richard
Published: May 2003

Notable strides have been made in recent years to develop codes of conduct for humanitarian intervention in conflicts on the part of international NGOs and UN organisations. Yet engagement by the academic and broader research communities with humanitarian crises and ongoing complex political emergencies remains relatively ad hoc and unregulated beyond the basic ethical guidelines and norms developed within universities for research in general, and within the governing and representative bodies of particular academic disciplines.

This paper draws on a case study of research on humanitarian assistance to Liberia during that country's civil war from 1989 to 1996. The difficulties faced by humanitarian agencies in Liberia led to the development of two key sets of ethical guidelines for humanitarian intervention: the Joint Policy of Operations (JPO) and Principles and Policies of Humanitarian Operations (PPHO). This paper seeks to address what lessons, if any, these ethical guidelines, together with different experiences of conducting research in war‐torn Liberia, can provide in terms of the role of academic researchers — and research itself — in humanitarian crises.
Humanitarian Crises: What Determines the Level of Emergency Assistance? Media Coverage, Donor Interests and the Aid Business
Authors: Olsen Gorm Rye , Carstensen Nils , Høyen Kristian
Published: May 2003

This paper proposes a basic hypothesis that the volume of emergency assistance any humanitarian crisis attracts is determined by three main factors working either in conjunction or individually. First, it depends on the intensity of media coverage. Second, it depends on the degree of political interest, particularly related to security, that donor governments have in a particular region. Third, the volume of emergency aid depends on strength of humanitarian NGOs and international organisations present in a specific country experiencing a humanitarian emergency. The empirical analysis of a number of emergency situations is carried out based on material that has never been published before. The paper concludes that only occasionally do the media play a decisive role in influencing donors. Rather, the security interests of Western donors are important together with the presence and strength of humanitarian stakeholders, such as NGOs and international organisations lobbying donor governments.
The Application of Geographic Information Systems and Global Positioning Systems in Humanitarian Emergencies: Lessons Learned, Programme Implications and Future Research
Authors: Kaiser Reinhard , Spiegel Paul B. , Henderson Alden K. , Gerber Michael L.
Published: May 2003

Geographic information systems (GIS), global positioning systems and remote sensing have been increasingly used in public health settings since the 1990s, but application of these methods in humanitarian emergencies has been less documented. Recent areas of application of GIS methods in humanitarian emergencies include hazard, vulnerability, and risk assessments; rapid assessment and survey methods; disease distribution and outbreak investigations; planning and implementation of health information systems; data and programme integration; and programme monitoring and evaluation. The main use of GIS in these areas is to provide maps for decision‐making and advocacy, which allow overlaying types of information that may not normally be linked. GIS is also used to improve data collection in the field (for example, for rapid health assessments or mortality surveys). Development of GIS methods requires further research. Although GIS methods may save resources and reduce error, initial investment in equipment and capacity building may be substantial. Especially in humanitarian emergencies, equipment and methodologies must be practical and appropriate for field use. Add‐on software to process GIS data needs to be developed and modified. As equipment becomes more user‐friendly and costs decrease, GIS will become more of a routine tool for humanitarian aid organisations in humanitarian emergencies, and new and innovative uses will evolve.
Mortality, Violence and Lack of Access to Healthcare in the Democratic Republic of Congo
Authors: Herp Michel Van , Parqué Veronique , Rackley Edward , Ford Nathan
Published: May 2003

The people of the Democratic Republic of Congo for decades have been living in a situation of chronic crisis. Violence, population displacement and the destruction of infrastructure and health services have devastated the health of the population. In 2001, Médicins Sans Frontières conducted a survey in five areas of western and central DRC to assess mortality, access to health‐care, vaccination coverage and exposure to violence. High mortality rates were found in front‐line zones, mainly due to malnutrition and infectious diseases. In Basankusu approximately 10 per cent of the total population and 25 per cent of the under‐five population had perished in the year before the survey. Humanitarian needs remain acute across the country, particularly near the front line. Infectious‐disease control and treatment are a priority, as is increasing access to health‐care. Humanitarian assistance must be increased considerably, especially in rural areas and zones that have been affected directly by conflict.
Disasters and Development in Agricultural Input Markets: Bean Seed Markets in Honduras After Hurricane Mitch
Authors: Mainville Denise Y.
Published: May 2003

The bulk of developing countries' populations and poor depend on agriculture for food and income. While rural economies and people are generally the most severely affected by natural disasters, little is known about how disasters and subsequent relief activities affect agricultural markets with differing levels of development. The article adresses this gap, drawing evidence from bean seed markets in Honduras after Hurricane Mitch. Case studies are used to address hypotheses about a disaster's effects on supply and demand in seed markets, farmers' responses and the performance of relief interventions in markets showing differing levels of development. The results show the importance of tailoring relief interventions to the markets that they will affect and to the specific effects of a disaster; the potential to use local and emerging seed distribution channels in a relief intervention; and opportunities for relief activities to strengthen community seed systems.
The 1998 Flood in Bangladesh: Is Different Targeting Needed During Emergencies and Recovery to Tackle Malnutrition?
Authors: Hossain S.M. Moazzem , Kolsteren Patrick
Published: May 2003

Bangladesh suffered the century's worst flood during July–October 1998 and appealed for assistance. To provide information for appropriate interventions to tackle nutritional problems, a rapid assessment survey was conducted to look at the nutritional situation, problems encountered by the community, their coping mechanisms and rehabilitation priorities in six rural areas. The survey was repeated after four months to measure the outcome of activities during the flood and the necessity for future assistance. There were 3,048 children measured in both surveys (1,597 and 1,451). The sample of most interest was a sub‐group of 180 children present in two previous independent surveys.

The analysis found that while moving from the crisis period to post‐flood phase there was evidence of a ‘crossover phenomenon’ in the recovery pattern of nutritional status. Sixty‐eight per cent of the children who were malnourished (WHZ <‐2SD) during the crisis period (18 per cent) recovered enough to cross the cut‐off point and became normal after four months. Another 8 per cent of children (9 per cent of all normal) who were normal during the crisis period, after four months had deteriorated to be malnourished. Thus, despite there being a shift in the overall distribution of nutritional status, there has been another shift that reduced the net effect. Subsequent episodes of diarrhoea, access to food and loan burden had also influenced the recovery pattern of the children's nutritional status as evident from the statistically significant associations. These findings raise questions about targeting acute malnutrition during emergencies, and using the same criteria during both the crisis and rehabilitation phases.
No Credit for Transition: European Institutions and German Unemployment
Authors: Driffill John , Miller Marcus
Published: June 2003

Abstract

The Stability and Growth Pact, adopted by members of the European Union,imposes tight limits on government deficits. But since the collapse of Communism,Europe has been faced with the problems of economies in transition: and reunifiedGermany—the leading economy of the EU—combines a prosperous western stateand an eastern economy in the process of transition. In a model where unions play akey role in wage bargaining and transition imposes a substantial burden on thenational budget, we analyze the implications of balancing the budget for the path ofunemployment. Where high but temporary costs are financed by raising taxes onemployment to satisfy the Stability and Growth Pact, then the title is a misnomer:relative to a policy of `tax smoothing', the pact increases unemployment and slowsgrowth. In designing fiscal rules for Europe, the benefits of tax smoothing must beweighed in the balance along with the virtues of fiscal discipline.
Single or double bounded contingent valuation? A Bayesian test
Authors: León Roberto , León Carmelo J.
Published: June 2003

This paper evaluates the performance of asymptotic approximations of the Bayes factor to appraise the relative likelihoods of the bivariate and the restricted double bounded models for contingent valuation. The performance of the Bayes factor test is studied by Monte Carlo simulation showing that it correctly chooses the bivariate model when appropriate, but tends to over predict the double bounded model when the correlation coefficient is not estimated accurately. However, the quadratic error in estimating willingness to pay is reduced if the model preferred by the test is chosen. In addition, we consider the effect of averaging the estimates of WTP from both models, weighting each model with its posterior probability. The results show that ‘model averaging’ across the competing hypothesis further reduces the squared error. The applications with two data sets on National Parks show that the test rejects the restricted double bounded hypotheses against the bivariate model.
Crop Genetic Diversity, Productivity and Stability of Agroecosystems. A Theoretical and Empirical Investigation
Authors: Di Falco Salvatore , Perrings Charles
Published: June 2003

This paper purports a model of farmers' crop choices in an uncertain environment. The model shows that profit maximizing farmers will choose a crop mix characterised by greater crop diversity if diversity is positively related to productivity and negatively correlated with production and income variability. An application using data from a Vavilov megadiversity spot, southern Italy, from 1970 up to 1993 is provided to test model hypotheses. It is found that interspecies crop genetic diversity is positively related to mean income and negatively related to the variance of income.
Rates of Convergence to Self‐Similar Solutions of Burgers' Equation
Authors: Miller Joel C. , Bernoff Andrew J.
Published: June 2003

We study the large‐time behavior of solutions to Burgers' equation with localized initial conditions. Previous studies have demonstrated that these solutions converge to a self‐similar asymptotic solution Θ(x, t) with an error whose Lp norm is of order t−1+1/2p. Noting that the temporal and spatial translational invariance of the underlying equations leads to a two‐parameter family of self‐similar solutions Θ(x−x*, t+t*), we demonstrate that the optimal choice of x* and t* reduces the Lp error to the order of t−2+1/2p.
The Strange Birth of Anglican Synods in Australia and the 1850 Bishops’ Conference
Authors: Kaye Bruce
Published: May 2003

The emergence of synods in Australian Anglicanism and their shape flowed in large measure from the social democratic forces at the time and these were for the most part expressed by Anglican lay people. While the Bishops’ conference in 1850 identified the issue of church governance and lay involvement the precise recommendations of the conference were nowhere followed. The popular memory of this process which gives determining influence in shaping the form of church constitution to the theological opinions of the local bishop owes its origins to some key interpretations at the beginning of the twentieth century which were part of the political debate about a national church constitution, a debate which was being argued with theologically shaped rhetoric. The reality in the middle of the nineteenth century was quite different but nonetheless implied a theological perspective which validated the use of contemporary social and political ideas in shaping church structures. In order to secure a model which incorporated the whole church community the synods used the mid nineteenth century parliamentary model. Whether that remains the best model for synods is a question.
Stochastic Volatility for Lévy Processes
Authors: Carr Peter , Geman Hélyette , Madan Dilip B. , Yor Marc
Published: May 2003

Three processes reflecting persistence of volatility are initially formulated by evaluating three Lévy processes at a time change given by the integral of a mean‐reverting square root process. The model for the mean‐reverting time change is then generalized to include non‐Gaussian models that are solutions to Ornstein‐Uhlenbeck equations driven by one‐sided discontinuous Lévy processes permitting correlation with the stock. Positive stock price processes are obtained by exponentiating and mean correcting these processes, or alternatively by stochastically exponentiating these processes. The characteristic functions for the log price can be used to yield option prices via the fast Fourier transform. In general mean‐corrected exponentiation performs better than employing the stochastic exponential. It is observed that the mean‐corrected exponential model is not a martingale in the filtration in which it is originally defined. This leads us to formulate and investigate the important property of martingale marginals where we seek martingales in altered filtrations consistent with the one‐dimensional marginal distributions of the level of the process at each future date.
The Term Structure of Simple Forward Rates with Jump Risk
Authors: Glasserman Paul , Kou S. G.
Published: May 2003

This paper characterizes the arbitrage‐free dynamics of interest rates, in the presence of both jumps and diffusion, when the term structure is modeled through simple forward rates (i.e., through discretely compounded forward rates evolving continuously in time) or forward swap rates. Whereas instantaneous continuously compounded rates form the basis of most traditional interest rate models, simply compounded rates and their parameters are more directly observable in practice and are the basis of recent research on “market models.” We consider very general types of jump processes, modeled through marked point processes, allowing randomness in jump sizes and dependence between jump sizes, jump times, and interest rates. We make explicit how jump and diffusion risk premia enter into the dynamics of simple forward rates. We also formulate reasonably tractable subclasses of models and provide pricing formulas for some derivative securities, including interest rate caps and options on swaps. Through these formulas, we illustrate the effect of jumps on implied volatilities in interest rate derivatives.
A Partially Observed Model for Micromovement of Asset Prices with Bayes Estimation via Filtering
Authors: Zeng Yong
Published: May 2003

A general micromovement model that describes transactional price behavior is proposed. The model ties the sample characteristics of micromovement and macromovement in a consistent manner. An important feature of the model is that it can be transformed to a filtering problem with counting process observations. Consequently, the complete information of price and trading time is captured and then utilized in Bayes estimation via filtering for the parameters. The filtering equations are derived. A theorem on the convergence of conditional expectation of the model is proved. A consistent recursive algorithm is constructed via the Markov chain approximation method to compute the approximate posterior and then the Bayes estimates. A simplified model and its recursive algorithm are presented in detail. Simulations show that the computed Bayes estimates converge to their true values. The algorithm is applied to one month of intraday transaction prices for Microsoft and the Bayes estimates are obtained.
VOLUNTARY ROADS AND STREETS
Authors: Watt Peter A.
Published: May 2003

This article examines the question of whether roads and streets could be financed by voluntary charges rather than by compulsory taxation as they are now. The question of private arrangements for long‐distance roads is examined first, then local streets. Both questions are complicated, but there is more evidence available to look at the first question than the second. It is concluded that a move to greater use of private mechanisms for providing roads and streets would have considerable advantages and expansion of this mode of provision should be encouraged.
LAND USE PLANNING: PUBLIC OR PRIVATE CHOICE?
Authors: Pennington Mark
Published: May 2003

Focusing on house prices and residential densities, this paper offers a comparative institutions account of the likely performance of public and private land use planning regimes. The analysis suggests that whilst far from ‘perfect,’ a system of private land use planning is likely to offer a more effective way of balancing the costs and benefits of land use change than a government‐driven system.
Secured Creditor Recovery Rates from Management Buy‐outs in Distress
Authors: Citron David , Wright Mike , Ball Rod , Rippington Fred
Published: May 2003

Buy‐out literature suggests that secured creditors will recoup substantial proportions of the funds they extend to finance the initial buy‐out. This paper uses a unique dataset of 42 failed MBOs to examine the extent of credit recovery by secured lenders under UK insolvency procedures and the factors that influence the extent of this recovery. On average, secured creditors recover 62 per cent of the amount owed. The percentage of secured credit recovered is increased where the distressed buy‐out is sold as a going concern and where the principal reason for failure concerns managerial factors. The presence of a going concern qualification in the audit report and the size of the buy‐out reduce the recovery rate by secured creditors.
The Underinvestment and Overinvestment Hypotheses: an Analysis Using Panel Data
Authors: Morgado Artur , Pindado Julio
Published: May 2003

We study the relationship between firm value and investment to test the underinvestment and overinvestment hypotheses. The results obtained, using panel data methodology as the estimation method, indicate that the abovementioned relation is quadratic, which implies that there exists an optimal level of investment. As a consequence, firms that invest less than the optimal level suffer from an underinvestment problem, while those investing more than the optimum suffer from overinvestment. The quadratic relation is maintained when firms are classified depending on their investment opportunities, the optimum being in accordance with the quality of investment opportunities.
Dynamic Portfolio Selection: the Relevance of Switching Regimes and Investment Horizon
Authors: Graflund Andreas , Nilsson Birger
Published: May 2003

This paper investigates the questions of dynamic portfolio selection and intertemporal hedging within a Markovian regime‐switching framework. The investment opportunity set is spanned by a well‐diversified home‐market portfolio and the risk‐free asset. Our results highlight the economic importance of regimes, as optimal portfolio weights are clearly dependent on the prevailing regime. We present evidence that the question of intertemporal hedging is a more complex issue than is hinted in the previous literature, since demand for intertemporal hedging is present in some regimes, but not in others. Finally, our main findings are qualitatively unchanged across the four largest stock markets in the world.
Conditioning Information and European Bond Fund Performance
Authors: Silva Florinda , Cortez Maria do Céu , Armada Manuel Rocha
Published: May 2003

In this paper we evaluate the performance of European bond funds using unconditional and conditional models. As conditioning information we use variables that we find to be useful in predicting bond returns in the European market. The results show that, in general, bond funds are not able to outperform passive strategies. These findings are robust to whatever model (unconditional versus conditional and single versus multi‐index) we use. The multi‐index model seems to add some explanatory power in relation to the single‐index model. Furthermore, when we incorporate the predetermined information variables, we can observe a slight tendency towards better performance. This evidence is consistent with previous studies on stock funds and comes in support of the argument that conditional models might allow for a better assessment of performance. However, our results suggest that the impact of additional risk factors seems to be greater than the impact of incorporating predetermined information variables.
Managerial Equity Ownership and the Demand for Outside Directors
Authors: Peasnell Kenneth V. , Pope Peter F. , Young Steven
Published: May 2003

This paper examines the linkage between the use of outside directors and managerial ownership. We conjecture there are two linkages: the standard incentive‐alignment demand for monitoring when managers own little stock and an entrenchment‐amelioration demand when managerial stock ownership is high. As a consequence, we predict the association between managerial ownership and board composition will be nonlinear (U‐shaped if the entrenchment effect is sufficiently pronounced). Using UK data, we find that both quadratic and logarithmic models outperform the simple linear relationship assumed in prior research and that the substitution between managerial ownership and board composition is stronger than hitherto supposed.
Simple Construction of the Efficient Frontier
Authors: Feldman David , Reisman Haim
Published: May 2003

We provide simple methods of constructing known results. At the core of our methods is the identification of a simple concise basis that spans the Capital Market Line (CML). We show that a portfolio whose risky assets weights are the product of the inverse variance‐covariance matrix of (nonredundant) security rates of return times the vector of the excess expected rates of return over the risk‐free rate is a CML portfolio. This portfolio and the risk‐free security span the CML. In addition, with this basis, there is immediate construction of the efficient frontier of risky assets (the ‘hyperbola’), ‘tangency’ portfolios, ‘reflection’ portfolios, and a CAPM relationship. Our method is quick and simple. It is easy to derive, teach, implement, interpret, and remember.
2001 Lawrence R. Klein Lecture Estimating Distributions of Treatment Effects with an Application to the Returns to Schooling and Measurement of the Effects of Uncertainty on College Choice*
Authors: Carneiro Pedro , Hansen Karsten T. , Heckman James J.
Published: June 2003

This article uses factor models to identify and estimate thedistributionsof counterfactuals. We extendLISRELframeworks to a dynamic treatment effect setting, extending matching to account for unobserved conditioning variables. Using these models, we can identify all pairwise and joint treatment effects. We apply these methods to a model of schooling and determine the intrinsic uncertainty facing agents at the time they make their decisions about enrollment in school. We go beyond the “Veil of Ignorance” in evaluating educational policies and determine who benefits and who loses from commonly proposed educational reforms.
The Effect Of Statistical Discrimination On Black–White Wage Inequality: Estimating A Model With Multiple Equilibria*
Authors: Moro Andrea
Published: June 2003

This article presents the structural estimation of the parameters of a statistical discrimination model. Although the model is capable of displaying multiple equilibria, an estimation strategy that identifies both the model parameters and the equilibrium selected by the economic agents is developed and empirically implemented. A comparison between the selected equilibria and the other potential equilibria reveals that the decline in wage inequality experienced in the U.S. economy cannot be attributed to changes in the equilibrium selection. Nonetheless, a counterfactual experiment shows that in a color‐blind society blacks' wage would have been on average more than 20% higher.
If at First You Don't Succeed…: Profits, Prices, and Market Structure in a Model of Quality with Unknowable Consumer Heterogeneity*
Authors: Krishna Kala , Winston Tor
Published: June 2003

Why are higher quality niches seen as intrinsically more profitable in business circles? Why do high quality products sometimes have a low real price, whereas it is unusual to see low quality products with high real prices? Can markets have quality differentiation as well as quality bunching? How does the rate at which fixed costs change with quality affect market structure? In this article we develop a new model of quality that casts light on such issues.
Growth Due To Globalization*
Authors: Perera‐Tallo Fernando
Published: June 2003

This article presents a growth model including geographical space and transportation costs in which the geographical area where firms sell their product is endogenous. Growth is generated by the expansion of trade and there is a positive relationship between degree of openness and income level. The model explains why economies become increasingly more open and why the degree of openness is not robustly correlated with growth. In contrast to other growth models, investment in transport infrastructure plays an important role and the size of the country does not affect growth.
Pure Contagion and Investors’ Shifting Risk Appetite: Analytical Issues and Empirical Evidence
Authors: Kumar Manmohan S. , Persaud Avinash
Published: May 2003

This paper discusses a ‘pure’ form of financial contagion, unrelated to economic fundamentals – investors’ shifting appetite for risk. It provides an analytical framework for identifying changes in investors’ risk appetite and discusses whether it is possible to directly measure them in a way that can enable policy makers to differentiate between financial contagion and domestic fundamentals as the immediate source of a crisis. Daily measures of risk appetite are computed and their usefulness in predicting financial crises is assessed.
Volatility in US and European Equity Markets: An Assessment of Market Quality
Authors: Ozenbas Deniz , Schwartz Robert A. , Wood Robert A.
Published: May 2003

The paper examines intra–day share price volatility over the year 2000 for five market centres: the New York Stock Exchange, Nasdaq, the London Stock Exchange, Euronext Paris and Deutsche Börse. In each of these markets, we observe a U–shaped intra–day volatility pattern, a particularly sharp spike for the opening half hour, and a general level of intra–day volatility that is accentuated vis–à–vis volatility over longer differencing intervals, e.g. daily and weekly periods. We suggest that the volatility accentuation is attributable to spreads, market impact, price discovery and momentum trading — all of which are either trading costs or exist because of trading costs. Because the magnitude of trading costs depends in part on market design, we also suggest that a link exists between intra–day volatility and market structure, and that market quality/efficiency on both sides of the Atlantic could be improved.
Review: Making the Case for Free Trade
Authors: Winters L. Alan
Published: May 2003

Books reviewed in this article:

Tomas Larsson, The Race to the Top: The Real Story of Globalization

Jagdish Bhagwati, Free Trade Today

Douglas A. Irwin, Free Trade under Fire
It Does Take a Village
Authors: Rose Richard J. , Viken Richard J. , Dick Danielle M. , Bates John E. , Pulkkinen Lea , Kaprio Jaakko
Published: June 2003

Family characteristics influence children's behavioral development, but so do variations in schools, neighborhoods, and communities. We documented extrafamilial environmental effects by fitting maximum likelihood models to questionnaire data collected from double dyads consisting of twins and their classmate controls. The classmate controls in each double dyad were genetic strangers living in separate households, but they shared school, neighborhood, and community environments with their yoked twin pair and with one another. At ages 11 to 12, the control classmates showed significant similarities in religious practices and smoking and drinking patterns, demonstrating that environmental influences outside the family affect children's behavioral development. Familial self-selection of residential neighborhoods may have contributed to these results, but direct effects of variation across communities, neighborhoods, and schools cannot be dismissed, and such effects warrant further study.
Strategic Alternative Responses to Risks of Terrorism
Authors: Wulf Wm. A. , Haimes Yacov Y. , Longstaff Thomas A.
Published: May 2003

The terrorist acts of September 11, 2001 were a wake‐up call for changing our traditional response to risks of terrorism. Given that government and worldwide think‐tank organizations maintain that risks of terrorism will continue for the indefinite future, the following questions deserve strategic answers. How long can we respond to terrorism with tactical measures only, sustain current curtailments of some of our freedoms, travel, and quality of life, and absorb losses in human life and properties? Should not underlying strategic motivation lead to the tactical measures? Why do so many groups and individuals in some developing countries hate us? Is it because they fear that the ideas we export through television, movies, literature, and music have a corrupting influence on their cultures? Is it because of past operations that we conducted in such countries as Iran, Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Granada? Can the genesis of the risks of terrorism to the homeland be traced to the unfavorable socioeconomic conditions in less‐privileged and developing countries, where civil and religious freedoms are close to nonexistent, and sanitary conditions, health and education, and critical infrastructures of essential utilities are almost at the same level that existed in the United States almost a century ago? If we could make progress at improving the quality of life of the billions of people in the developing countries and become more sensitive to their needs, cultures, and heritage, would their hatred subside? What other measures can we take to reduce their hatred, without compromising our basic cultural and democratic principles or their cultural and social heritage?
Near‐Miss Incident Management in the Chemical Process Industry
Authors: Phimister James R. , Oktem Ulku , Kleindorfer Paul R. , Kunreuther Howard
Published: May 2003

This article provides a systematic framework for the analysis and improvement of near‐miss programs in the chemical process industries. Near‐miss programs improve corporate environmental, health, and safety (EHS) performance through the identification and management of near misses. Based on more than 100 interviews at 20 chemical and pharmaceutical facilities, a seven‐stage framework has been developed and is presented herein. The framework enables sites to analyze their own near‐miss programs, identify weak management links, and implement systemwide improvements.
Development of a Public Participation and Communication Protocol for Establishing Fish Consumption Advisories
Authors: Jardine Cynthia G.
Published: May 2003

Enabling people to make an informed choice on whether to change consumption behavior is ultimately the objective of any fish consumption advisory. This will occur only if people are aware of the advisory, know and understand the advisory information, and believe the information to be true. Interactive, meaningful communication and the opportunity to participate in the process to develop and review advisories are key to achieving these attributes. A case study was undertaken in a community in Alberta, Canada (where an existing advisory was under consideration for review) to determine public awareness, knowledge, compliance, communication effectiveness, information needs, and desire for involvement related to the advisory. The information obtained from this case study was used to develop 14 guiding principles as a foundation for the incorporation of public participation and risk communication into the process of developing and reviewing fish consumption advisories.
Benchmark Dose Risk Assessment for Formaldehyde Using Airflow Modeling and a Single‐Compartment, DNA‐Protein Cross‐Link Dosimetry Model to Estimate Human Equivalent Doses
Authors: Schlosser Paul M. , Lilly Patrick D. , Conolly Rory B. , Janszen Derek B. , Kimbell Julie S.
Published: May 2003

Formaldehyde induced squamous‐cell carcinomas in the nasal passages of F344 rats in two inhalation bioassays at exposure levels of 6 ppm and above. Increases in rates of cell proliferation were measured by T. M. Monticello and colleagues at exposure levels of 0.7 ppm and above in the same tissues from which tumors arose. A risk assessment for formaldehyde was conducted at the CIIT Centers for Health Research, in collaboration with investigators from Toxicological Excellence in Risk Assessment (TERA) and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA) in 1999. Two methods for dose‐response assessment were used: a full biologically based modeling approach and a statistically oriented analysis by benchmark dose (BMD) method. This article presents the later approach, the purpose of which is to combine BMD and pharmacokinetic modeling to estimate human cancer risks from formaldehyde exposure. BMD analysis was used to identify points of departure (exposure levels) for low‐dose extrapolation in rats for both tumor and the cell proliferation endpoints. The benchmark concentrations for induced cell proliferation were lower than for tumors. These concentrations were extrapolated to humans using two mechanistic models. One model used computational fluid dynamics (CFD) alone to determine rates of delivery of inhaled formaldehyde to the nasal lining. The second model combined the CFD method with a pharmacokinetic model to predict tissue dose with formaldehyde‐induced DNA‐protein cross‐links (DPX) as a dose metric. Both extrapolation methods gave similar results, and the predicted cancer risk in humans at low exposure levels was found to be similar to that from a risk assessment conducted by the U.S. EPA in 1991. Use of the mechanistically based extrapolation models lends greater certainty to these risk estimates than previous approaches and also identifies the uncertainty in the measured dose‐response relationship for cell proliferation at low exposure levels, the dose‐response relationship for DPX in monkeys, and the choice between linear and nonlinear methods of extrapolation as key remaining sources of uncertainty.
Estimating the Predicted Environmental Concentration of the Residues of Veterinary Medicines: Should Uncertainty and Variability Be Ignored?
Authors: Kelly Louise A. , Taylor Mike A. , Wooldridge Marion J. A.
Published: May 2003

European directives require that all veterinary medicines be assessed to determine the harmful effects that their use may have on the environment. Fundamental to this assessment is the calculation of the predicted environmental concentration (PEC), which is dependent on the type of drug, its associated treatment characteristics, and the route by which residues enter the environment. Deterministic models for the calculation of the PEC have previously been presented. In this article, the inclusion of variability and uncertainty within such models is introduced. In particular, models for the calculation of the PEC for residues excreted directly onto pasture by grazing animals are considered and comparison of deterministic and stochastic results suggest that uncertainty and variability cannot be ignored.
Human Mercury Toxicity and Ice Angler Fish Consumption: Are People Eating Enough to Cause Health Problems?
Authors: Flaherty Colleen M. , Sass Greg G. , Stiles Kaelyn E.
Published: May 2003

Mercury contamination of aquatic ecosystems is a global environmental concern. Bioaccumulation of mercury in fish exposes consumers to risk. We interviewed ice anglers on Monona Bay, Wisconsin during the 2001–2002 ice fishing season to determine risk associated with fish consumption and methyl mercury (MeHg) intake. The majority of anglers (95%) were not at risk of mercury toxicity because they ate less fish than would be required to create health problems. The remaining 5% of ice anglers barely exceeded the mercury toxicity threshold, with the exception of one angler who exceeded the threshold by 0.926 ppm. Anglers encountered were all male and predominantly Caucasian. Fish consumption by ice anglers was independent of awareness of consumption advisories, education, income, and age. This suggests that future awareness efforts should (1) identify groups of anglers most at risk and (2) create policies to effectively reach these audiences.
Models of Neurotoxicity: Extrapolation of Benchmark Doses in Vitro
Authors: Goldoni Matteo , Vittoria Vettori Maria , Alinovi Rossella , Caglieri Andrea , Ceccatelli Sandra , Mutti Antonio
Published: May 2003

In risk assessment, no observed exposure level (NOAEL) and benchmark dose (BMD) are usually derived either from epidemiological studies in humans or from animal experiments. In many in vitro studies, concentration‐effect/response curves have been analyzed using different mathematical models finalized to the identification of EC50. In the present article, we propose a model to fit dose‐response curves in vitro. The BMD approach has been used to compare the cell viability (MTT assay) of different rat (C6 and PC12, glial and neuronal, respectively) and human cell lines (D384 and SK‐N‐MC, glial and neuronal, respectively) after 24‐hour exposure to the following neurotoxic substances: manganese chloride (MnCl2), methyl‐mercury (Me‐Hg), and the enantiomers of styrene oxide (SO). For all rat and human cell lines, the potency of the examined compounds was: MnCl2 < S‐SO < R‐SO < Me‐Hg. A preliminary comparison with in vivo toxicity data for these substances gave rise to consistent results. Whereas a reasonable agreement between in vitro and in vivo data has been found for Mn and styrene oxide, a wide scatter of LOAEL has been reported for Me‐Hg and these appear to be either much higher or lower than the BMD for the MTT assay we observed invitro.
Aligning Chemical Assessment Tools Across the Hazard‐Risk Continuum
Authors: Pittinger Charles A. , Brennan Thomas H. , Badger Drew A. , Hakkinen P. J. (Bert) , Fehrenbacher M. Catherine
Published: May 2003

With the growing number and diversity of hazard and risk assessment algorithms, models, databases, and frameworks for chemicals and their applications, risk assessors and managers are challenged to select the appropriate tool for a given need or decision. Some decisions require relatively simple tools to evaluate chemical hazards (e.g., toxicity), such as labeling for safe occupational handling and transport of chemicals. Others require assessment tools that provide relative comparisons among chemical properties, such as selecting the optimum chemical for a particular use among a group of candidates. Still other needs warrant full risk characterization, coupling both hazard and exposure considerations. Examples of these include new chemical evaluations for commercialization, evaluations of existing chemicals for novel uses, and assessments of the adequacy of risk management provisions. Even well‐validated tools can be inappropriately applied, with consequences as severe as misguided chemical management, compromised credibility of the tool and its developers and users, and squandered resources. This article describes seven discrete categories of tools based on their information content, function, and the type of outputs produced. It proposes a systematic framework to assist users in selecting hazard and risk assessment tools for given applications. This analysis illustrates the importance of careful selection of assessment tools to achieve responsible chemical assessment communication and sound risk management.
Floods and Climate Change: Interactions and Impacts
Authors: Bronstert Axel
Published: May 2003

Whether the floods experienced during the last decade in Germany and in other European countries are triggered or worsened by human activities has been the subject of a great deal of debate. Possible anthropogenic activities leading to increased flood risk include river regulation measures, intensified land use and forestry, and emissions of greenhouse gases causing a change in the global climate. This article discusses the latter by reviewing the existing knowledge on the subject. First, the relevance, capabilities, and limitations of climate models for the simulation and analysis of flood risk under aspects of the anthropogenic climate change are described. Special consideration is given here to differences between the “typical” spatial scale of climate models and hydrological flood models. Second, observations of trends in climate variables relevant for river flooding issues are summarized. Special emphasis is put on the Rhine and other German catchment areas. Third, the possibilities of modeling the different parts of the “cascade of flood risk” are summarized, introducing the special features of meteorological, hydrological, and river hydraulic models.
The Impact of Climate Variability on Flood Risk in Poland
Authors: Kaczmarek Zdzislaw
Published: May 2003

This article examines the role of climatic and hydrological variability in assessing the cumulative risk of flood events in Poland over a T‐year period. In a broad sense flood‐risk estimation combines a frequency analysis of extreme hydrological phenomena with an evaluation of flood‐induced damages. The damage from floods depends on the critical values of the river discharges. The probabilistic flood analysis usually includes an estimation of the expected annual probability of the critical discharge Qcr being exceeded and the equivalent long‐term risk of it being exceeded over the next T years. If, however, the process is nonstationary, the T‐year risk of flood damage may depend importantly on the variation of hydrological processes. As a possible explanation for the variations observed in snowmelt‐induced floods in Polish rivers, this article investigates the possible impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on surface air temperature T and precipitation P. The spatial distribution of the correlation coefficients between NAO and T, as well as NAO and P, show very significant differences in the NAO impact on meteorological variables in various parts of Europe. To assess the implications of NAO variations on spring flood discharges, a simple model of Snow Cover Water Equivalent (SCWE) was applied to selected Polish river catchments. The conclusion of this analysis is that the yearly maximum of SCWE values significantly decreases with increasing NAO. This leads to a temporal redistribution of winter and spring runoff. The question of spring flood characteristics being stationary or nonstationary may therefore be linked with stochastic properties of the NAO index time series.
European River Floods in a Changing World
Authors: Mitchell James K.
Published: May 2003

Whereas the verdict is undecided about the effects of global warming on Europe's flood risks, it is clear that Europeans are becoming more exposed and vulnerable to floods. Losses are increasing dramatically, mainly because of population and capital moving into harm's way and also because of human‐driven transformations of hydrological systems, including river basins and floodplains.
Adapting to Climate: A Case Study on Riverine Flood Risks in the Netherlands
Authors: Tol Richard S. J. , Van Der Grijp Nicolien , Olsthoorn Alexander A. , Van Der Werff Peter E.
Published: May 2003

Climate change may well lead to an increased risk of river floods in the Netherlands. However, the impacts of changes in water management on river floods are larger, either enhancing or reducing flood risks. Therefore, the abilities of water‐management authorities to learn that climate and river flows are changing, and to recognize and act upon the implications, are of crucial importance. At the same time, water‐management authorities respond to other trends, such as the democratization of decision making, which alter their ability to react to climate change. These complex interactions are illustrated with changes in river flood risk management for the Rhine and the Meuse in the Netherlands over the last 50 years. A scenario study is used to seek insight into the question of whether current water‐management institutions and their likely successors are capable of dealing with plausible future flood risks. The scenarios show that new and major infrastructure is needed to keep flood risks at their current level. Such a structural solution to future flood risks is feasible, but requires considerable political will and institutional reform, both for planning and implementation. It is unlikely that reform will be fast enough or the will strong enough.
Stakeholder Views on Flood Risk Management in Hungary's Upper Tisza Basin
Authors: Vari Anna , Linnerooth‐Bayer Joanne , Ferencz Zoltan
Published: May 2003

With escalating costs of flood mitigation and relief, a challenge for the Hungarian government is to develop a flood mitigation and insurance/relief system that is viewed as efficient and fair by the many stakeholders involved. To aid policymakers in this task, this article reports on a recent study to elicit stakeholder views on flood risk management in the Upper Tisza Basin, including views on appropriate means of reducing losses and for transferring the residual losses from the direct victims to taxpayers or an insurance pool. This study is part of a project to develop an integrated approach to flood risk management coordinated by the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) in collaboration with Swedish and Hungarian researchers. The discussion begins by describing the background of flood risk management problems in the Upper Tisza Basin. The results of interviews carried out with selected key stakeholders and the results of a public survey eliciting views on flood risk management are reported. The final section draws conclusions on incorporating stakeholder views into a flood risk management model, which will be used to illustrate policy paths at an upcoming stakeholder workshop. The conclusions are also of direct interest to Hungarian policymakers.