Political Decision‐Making in a Risk‐Taking Situation: Swedish Local Councils in the Face of Amalgamation
Authors: BRANTGÄRDE LENNART 
Published: May 2008

The analyses performed seem to have given substantial support to our hypotheses. We have found that certain ecological variables, such as size, population trend and C‐index, can predict the decision‐makers' choice of strategy to some extent. We have also found that variables such as C‐index ratio and index of employment have a predicting capability of roughly the same size. This seems to mean, or could at least be given the interpretation, that the merit‐calculus of the decision‐makers has included more variables than was originally assumed. The “merit‐predictors” also seem to be to some extent exchangeable.

Secondly, an additive model does not seem to fit the data because of a great deal of interaction between several variables of those mentioned above. This too is a nice result from our theoretical point of view, even if there are some deviances from a perfect interactive pattern.

Thirdly, at least one variable, assumed to give a measurement of differences between two categories of communes with respect to the utility of the achievement of a change in status in the bloc‐plan, has shown up a relationship consistent to our theory. By employing a control for the level of “probabilities” we have observed that the decision‐makers seem to choose S1 or & more often when there is an expected majority change than in a situation where a majority shift is not expected. Furthermore the differences in relative frequency of choice of S1 or S2 under these two conditions are not constant, comparing two levels of probabilities of success, but seem to increase when we move from a low level to a higher one. These findings obviously support the theory that there is a multiplicative relationship between utility and probability.

It can be argued, however, that the assumption of constant utility in achieving status as a central commune or as independent or of avoiding political power shifts, will not hold good. It can, for example, be contended that utility rises with rising probabilities of success. This seems to be not unreasonable in the sense that the greater the economic resources and the more developed the local public services are, the less the need is felt of a reform and the greater importance the political balance of power has for the location of resources. If this is true there must fundamentally be an extremely high consensus around both the reform and its principles among the Swedish local politicians. The march of events during the sixties as regards the accomplishment of the reform does not seem to confirm this contention. And besides, it can just as reasonably be contended that the greater the resources and the more developed the services, the less will be the disadvantages of being a peripheral commune. But even if it were so that the utility to some extent vanes with the probabilities, it would appear to be very difficult to explain our findings, especially in Figure 2, without including a probability factor in the model.

In conclusion, therefore, we would like to point out that our basic theory, which states that the decision‐markers' attempt to adapt their local political ambitions to the probabilities of success, has received support. That this behaviour has prevailed we have assumed to depend on two efforts from the decision‐makers, namely to maximize or optimize their political goals, and to attempt to avoid conflict. Considerations of probability or conflict should therefore be seen as an expression of the decision‐makers' moderation of their claims and choice of a level of aspiration more in line with their prospects.

An important element in this study has been to demonstrate the possibilities of meaningfully carrying out a decision study on the basis of treatment of official material only. This attempt has made it necessary to base the analysis on a series of presuppitions and assumptions which in their turn have been based on a description of the decision situation. These elements in the study had necessarily to be made with great simplifications of reality, not merely as regards presentation but also as to facts.

The relatively moderate power of explanation in terms of variance explained, which the model has proved to possess, should therefore be partly judged from the point of view that the study constitutes an experiment in method after all.