bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Syringomyelia Hydrodynamics: An In Vitro Study Based on In Vivo Measurements
Authors: Martin Bryn A. , Kalata Wojciech , Loth Francis , Royston Thomas J. , Oshinski John N.
Published: November 2005

A simplified in vitro model of the spinal canal, based on in vivo magnetic resonance imaging, was used to examine the hydrodynamics of the human spinal cord and subarachnoid space with syringomyelia. In vivo magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) measurements of subarachnoid (SAS) geometry and cerebrospinal fluid velocity were acquired in a patient with syringomyelia and used to aid in the in vitro model design and experiment. The in vitro model contained a fluid-filled coaxial elastic tube to represent a syrinx. A computer controlled pulsatile pump was used to subject the in vitro model to a CSF flow waveform representative of that measured in vivo. Fluid velocity was measured at three axial locations within the in vitro model using the same MRI scanner as the patient study. Pressure and syrinx wall motion measurements were conducted external to the MR scanner using the same model and flow input. Transducers measured unsteady pressure both in the SAS and intra-syrinx at four axial locations in the model. A laser Doppler vibrometer recorded the syrinx wall motion at 18 axial locations and three polar positions. Results indicated that the peak-to-peak amplitude of the SAS flow waveform in vivo was approximately tenfold that of the syrinx and in phase (SAS∼5.2±0.6ml∕s,syrinx∼0.5±0.3ml∕s). The in vitro flow waveform approximated the in vivo peak-to-peak magnitude (SAS∼4.6±0.2ml∕s,syrinx∼0.4±0.3ml∕s). Peak-to-peak in vitro pressure variation in both the SAS and syrinx was approximately 6 mm Hg. Syrinx pressure waveform lead the SAS pressure waveform by approximately 40 ms. Syrinx pressure was found to be less than the SAS for ∼200ms during the 860-ms flow cycle. Unsteady pulse wave velocity in the syrinx was computed to be a maximum of ∼25m∕s. LDV measurements indicated that spinal cord wall motion was nonaxisymmetric with a maximum displacement of ∼140μm, which is below the resolution limit of MRI. Agreement between in vivo and in vitro MR measurements demonstrates that the hydrodynamics in the fluid filled coaxial elastic tube system are similar to those present in a single patient with syringomyelia. The presented in vitro study of spinal cord wall motion, and complex unsteady pressure and flow environment within the syrinx and SAS, provides insight into the complex biomechanical forces present in syringomyelia.
A CRITICAL APPRAISAL OF THE DETERMINATION OF ACTIVATION ENERGY OF TL PEAKS BY KIRSH METHOD
Authors: BHATTACHARYA MANABESH
Published: November 2005

An attempt has been made to assess critically the suitability of Kirsh method for synthetic TL peaks obtained by solving the set of coupled differential equations. TL peaks represented by three different models namely (i) One Trap One Recombination center (OTOR), (ii) Non-interactive MultiTrap System (NMTS) and (iii) Interactive MultiTrap System (IMTS) have been taken into consideration. It has been found that Kirsh method yields resonably good values of activation energy except for the NMTS model. The validity of the method has been adjudged further by applying it for the determination of activation energies of a number of experimental TL peaks of BeO .
UNEXPECTED BEHAVIOR IN THE CROSSING OF MICROWAVE AND OPTICAL BEAMS
Authors: ALLARIA E. , MEUCCI R. , MUGNAI D. , RANFAGNI A. , RANFAGNI C.
Published: November 2005

The question of the superluminal speed of information was stopped at crossroads in the last few years. According to one point of view, this speed must be limited to the light velocity in vacuum, whereas a different point of view is more open in this respect and, under specific conditions, this limit is considered surmountable. Very recently, a third approach (based on the hypothesis of a local broken Lorentz-invariance) was proposed and, if confirmed, would go beyond the controversy of the two points of view mentioned above. It is therefore worthwhile to recall attention to this problem, which is far from having a definite solution. The present paper reports some experimental results (similar to those of Ref. 1) which can contribute to these discussions, and also considers the fact that they seem to give some support to the aforesaid third approach, although revised in terms of decaying waves.
CONTROLLABLE SPIN POLARIZATION IN A DMS QUANTUM DOT
Authors: KIM NAMMEE , KANG T. W. , KIM HEESANG
Published: November 2005

The effects of electro-magnetic confining potentials and the s–d exchange interaction between substituted Mn ions and carriers on the spin polarization of carriers in an diluted magnetic semiconductor quantum dot are investigated within the framework of the effective-mass theory. The energy eigenvalues and wavefunctions of a single electron in the presence of an external magnetic field are studied by solving the one particle Schrödinger equation including the conventional Zeeman effect, the s–d exchange interaction and the electric confining potential which describes the dot. The eigenenergy structure for low lying states is strongly dependant on the relative sizes of the s–d exchange interactions and the conventional Zeeman energy splitting. When the spin splitting exceeds the cyclotron energy splitting, the Landau level overlappings occur so that the spin polarization of carriers is induced in low lying energy states. This spin polarization of carriers in the diluted magnetic semiconductor quantum dot can be controlled by changing the electro-magnetic confining potentials.
APPLICATION OF INTERMEDIATE ENTANGLED STATE REPRESENTATION ON SOLVING COUPLED OSCILLATOR
Authors: PANG QIANJUN
Published: November 2005

Through introducing an intermediate entangled state representation |β〉λν interpolating the entangled states |η〉 and |ξ〉, the eigenvalues and eigenvectors of a bipartite fully-coupled oscillators are discussed within some different situations.
DETERMINATION OF THE ETU EFFECT OF ACTIVELY LD-PUMPED Q-SWITCHED SOLID STATE LASERS
Authors: HUANG YUNG-SHENG , TSENG KUN-FU , CHANG FANG-LING
Published: November 2005

We have proposed a model to incorporate the energy transfer up-conversion (ETU) effect on the performance of actively LD-pumped Q-switched kilo-watt lasers. Under the optimal output transmission condition, the optimal ratio of the pump mode to the laser mode are found to be within 0.85 and 1.1 to minimize the influence of the ETU on the output power, so the maximum pulse energy and the peak power can be obtained.
Simple Nonparametric Techniques for Exploring Changing Probability Distributions of Weather
Authors: Ferro Christopher A. T. , Hannachi Abdelwaheb , Stephenson David B.
Published: November 2005

Anthropogenic influences are expected to cause the probability distribution of weather variables to change in nontrivial ways. This study presents simple nonparametric methods for exploring and comparing differences in pairs of probability distribution functions. The methods are based on quantiles and allow changes in all parts of the probability distribution to be investigated, including the extreme tails. Adjusted quantiles are used to investigate whether changes are simply due to shifts in location (e.g., mean) and/or scale (e.g., variance). Sampling uncertainty in the quantile differences is assessed using simultaneous confidence intervals calculated using a bootstrap resampling method that takes account of serial (intraseasonal) dependency. The methods are simple enough to be used on large gridded datasets. They are demonstrated here by exploring the changes between European regional climate model simulations of daily minimum temperature and precipitation totals for winters in 1961–90 and 2071–2100. Projected changes in daily precipitation are generally found to be well described by simple increases in scale, whereas minimum temperature exhibits changes in both location and scale.
Estimation of the Surface Heat Flux Response to Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies over the Global Oceans
Authors: Park Sungsu , Deser Clara , Alexander Michael A.
Published: November 2005

The surface heat flux response to underlying sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (the surface heat flux feedback) is estimated using 42 yr (1956–97) of ship-derived monthly turbulent heat fluxes and 17 yr (1984–2000) of satellite-derived monthly radiative fluxes over the global oceans for individual seasons. Net surface heat flux feedback is generally negative (i.e., a damping of the underlying SST anomalies) over the global oceans, although there is considerable geographical and seasonal variation. Over the North Pacific Ocean, net surface heat flux feedback is dominated by the turbulent flux component, with maximum values (28 W m−2 K−1) in December–February and minimum values (5 W m−2 K−1) in May–July. These seasonal variations are due to changes in the strength of the climatological mean surface wind speed and the degree to which the near-surface air temperature and humidity adjust to the underlying SST anomalies. Similar features are observed over the extratropical North Atlantic Ocean with maximum (minimum) feedback values of approximately 33 W m−2 K−1 (9 W m−2 K−1) in December–February (June–August). Although the net surface heat flux feedback may be negative, individual components of the feedback can be positive depending on season and location. For example, over the midlatitude North Pacific Ocean during late spring to midsummer, the radiative flux feedback associated with marine boundary layer clouds and fog is positive, and results in a significant enhancement of the month-to-month persistence of SST anomalies, nearly doubling the SST anomaly decay time from 2.8 to 5.3 months in May–July.

Several regions are identified with net positive heat flux feedback: the tropical western North Atlantic Ocean during boreal winter, the Namibian stratocumulus deck off West Africa during boreal fall, and the Indian Ocean during boreal summer and fall. These positive feedbacks are mainly associated with the following atmospheric responses to positive SST anomalies: 1) reduced surface wind speed (positive turbulent heat flux feedback) over the tropical western North Atlantic and Indian Oceans, 2) reduced marine boundary layer stratocumulus cloud fraction (positive shortwave radiative flux feedback) over the Namibian stratocumulus deck, and 3) enhanced atmospheric water vapor (positive longwave radiative flux feedback) in the vicinity of the tropical deep convection region over the Indian Ocean that exceeds the negative shortwave radiative flux feedback associated with enhanced cloudiness.
Seasonal Climate Predictability in a Coupled OAGCM Using a Different Approach for Ensemble Forecasts
Authors: Luo Jing-Jia , Masson Sebastien , Behera Swadhin , Shingu Satoru , Yamagata Toshio
Published: November 2005

Predictabilities of tropical climate signals are investigated using a relatively high resolution Scale Interaction Experiment–Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC) coupled GCM (SINTEX-F). Five ensemble forecast members are generated by perturbing the model’s coupling physics, which accounts for the uncertainties of both initial conditions and model physics. Because of the model’s good performance in simulating the climatology and ENSO in the tropical Pacific, a simple coupled SST-nudging scheme generates realistic thermocline and surface wind variations in the equatorial Pacific. Several westerly and easterly wind bursts in the western Pacific are also captured.

Hindcast results for the period 1982–2001 show a high predictability of ENSO. All past El Niño and La Niña events, including the strongest 1997/98 warm episode, are successfully predicted with the anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC) skill scores above 0.7 at the 12-month lead time. The predicted signals of some particular events, however, become weak with a delay in the phase at mid and long lead times. This is found to be related to the intraseasonal wind bursts that are unpredicted beyond a few months of lead time. The model forecasts also show a “spring prediction barrier” similar to that in observations. Spatial SST anomalies, teleconnection, and global drought/flood during three different phases of ENSO are successfully predicted at 9–12-month lead times.

In the tropical North Atlantic and southwestern Indian Ocean, where ENSO has predominant influences, the model shows skillful predictions at the 7–12-month lead times. The distinct signal of the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event in 1994 is predicted at the 6-month lead time. SST anomalies near the western coast of Australia are also predicted beyond the 12-month lead time because of pronounced decadal signals there.
The Forcing of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation*
Authors: Schneider Niklas , Cornuelle Bruce D.
Published: November 2005

The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), defined as the leading empirical orthogonal function of North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies, is a widely used index for decadal variability. It is shown that the PDO can be recovered from a reconstruction of North Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies based on a first-order autoregressive model and forcing by variability of the Aleutian low, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and oceanic zonal advection anomalies in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension. The latter results from oceanic Rossby waves that are forced by North Pacific Ekman pumping. The SST response patterns to these processes are not orthogonal, and they determine the spatial characteristics of the PDO. The importance of the different forcing processes is frequency dependent. At interannual time scales, forcing from ENSO and the Aleutian low determines the response in equal parts. At decadal time scales, zonal advection in the Kuroshio–Oyashio Extension, ENSO, and anomalies of the Aleutian low each account for similar amounts of the PDO variance. These results support the hypothesis that the PDO is not a dynamical mode, but arises from the superposition of sea surface temperature fluctuations with different dynamical origins.
The NAO, the AO, and Global Warming: How Closely Related?
Authors: Cohen Judah , Barlow Mathew
Published: November 2005

The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the closely related Arctic Oscillation (AO) strongly affect Northern Hemisphere (NH) surface temperatures with patterns reported similar to the global warming trend. The NAO and AO were in a positive trend for much of the 1970s and 1980s with historic highs in the early 1990s, and it has been suggested that they contributed significantly to the global warming signal. The trends in standard indices of the AO, NAO, and NH average surface temperature for December–February, 1950–2004, and the associated patterns in surface temperature anomalies are examined. Also analyzed are factors previously identified as relating to the NAO, AO, and their positive trend: North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SSTs), Indo–Pacific warm pool SSTs, stratospheric circulation, and Eurasian snow cover.

Recently, the NAO and AO indices have been decreasing; when these data are included, the overall trends for the past 30 years are weak to nonexistent and are strongly dependent on the choice of start and end date. In clear distinction, the wintertime hemispheric warming trend has been vigorous and consistent throughout the entire period. When considered for the whole hemisphere, the NAO/AO patterns can also be distinguished from the trend pattern. Thus the December–February warming trend may be distinguished from the AO and NAO in terms of the strength, consistency, and pattern of the trend. These results are insensitive to choice of index or dataset. While the NAO and AO may contribute to hemispheric and regional warming for multiyear periods, these differences suggest that the large-scale features of the global warming trend over the last 30 years are unrelated to the AO and NAO. The related factors may also be clearly distinguished, with warm pool SSTs linked to the warming trend, while the others are linked to the NAO and AO.
Near-Annual SST Variability in the Equatorial Pacific in a Coupled General Circulation Model
Authors: Wu Renguang , Kirtman Ben P.
Published: November 2005

Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) interactive ensemble coupled general circulation model show near-annual variability as well as biennial El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. There are two types of near-annual modes: a westward propagating mode and a stationary mode. For the westward propagating near-annual mode, warm SST anomalies are generated in the eastern equatorial Pacific in boreal spring and propagate westward in boreal summer. Consistent westward propagation is seen in precipitation, surface wind, and ocean current. For the stationary near-annual mode, warm SST anomalies develop near the date line in boreal winter and decay locally in boreal spring. Westward propagation of warm SST anomalies also appears in the developing year of the biennial ENSO mode. However, warm SST anomalies for the westward propagating near-annual mode occur about two months earlier than those for the biennial ENSO mode and are quickly replaced by cold SST anomalies, whereas warm SST anomalies for the biennial ENSO mode only experience moderate weakening.

Anomalous zonal advection contributes to the generation and westward propagation of warm SST anomalies for both the westward propagating near-annual mode and the biennial ENSO mode. However, the role of mean upwelling is markedly different. The mean upwelling term contributes to the generation of warm SST anomalies for the biennial ENSO mode, but is mainly a damping term for the westward propagating near-annual mode. The development of warm SST anomalies for the stationary near-annual mode is partially due to anomalous zonal advection and upwelling, similar to the amplification of warm SST anomalies in the equatorial central Pacific for the biennial ENSO mode. The mean upwelling term is negative in the eastern equatorial Pacific for the stationary near-annual mode, which is opposite to the ENSO mode.

The development of cold SST anomalies in the aftermath of warm SST anomalies for the westward propagating near-annual mode is coupled to large easterly wind anomalies, which occur between the warm and cold SST anomalies. The easterly anomalies contribute to the cold SST anomalies through anomalous zonal, meridional, and vertical advection and surface evaporation. The cold SST anomalies, in turn, enhance the easterly anomalies through a Rossby-wave-type response. The above processes are most effective during boreal spring when the mean near-surface-layer ocean temperature gradient is the largest. It is suggested that the westward propagating near-annual mode is related to air–sea interaction processes that are limited to the near-surface layers.
Effects of Temperature and Precipitation Variability on Snowpack Trends in the Western United States*
Authors: Hamlet Alan F. , Mote Philip W. , Clark Martyn P. , Lettenmaier Dennis P.
Published: November 2005

Recent studies have shown substantial declines in snow water equivalent (SWE) over much of the western United States in the last half century, as well as trends toward earlier spring snowmelt and peak spring streamflows. These trends are influenced both by interannual and decadal-scale climate variability, and also by temperature trends at longer time scales that are generally consistent with observations of global warming over the twentieth century. In this study, the linear trends in 1 April SWE over the western United States are examined, as simulated by the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrologic model implemented at 1/8° latitude–longitude spatial resolution, and driven by a carefully quality controlled gridded daily precipitation and temperature dataset for the period 1915–2003. The long simulations of snowpack are used as surrogates for observations and are the basis for an analysis of regional trends in snowpack over the western United States and southern British Columbia, Canada. By isolating the trends due to temperature and precipitation in separate simulations, the influence of temperature and precipitation variability on the overall trends in SWE is evaluated. Downward trends in 1 April SWE over the western United States from 1916 to 2003 and 1947 to 2003, and for a time series constructed using two warm Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) epochs concatenated together, are shown to be primarily due to widespread warming. These temperature-related trends are not well explained by decadal climate variability associated with the PDO. Trends in SWE associated with precipitation trends, however, are very different in different time periods and are apparently largely controlled by decadal variability rather than longer-term trends in climate.
Paramount Impact of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the East African Short Rains: A CGCM Study
Authors: Behera Swadhin K. , Luo Jing-Jia , Masson Sebastien , Delecluse Pascale , Gualdi Silvio , Navarra Antonio , Yamagata Toshio
Published: November 2005

The variability in the East African short rains is investigated using 41-yr data from the observation and 200-yr data from a coupled general circulation model known as the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change, version 1 (SINTEX-F1). The model-simulated data provide a scope to understand the climate variability in the region with a better statistical confidence. Most of the variability in the model short rains is linked to the basinwide large-scale coupled mode, that is, the Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) in the tropical Indian Ocean. The analysis of observed data and model results reveals that the influence of the IOD on short rains is overwhelming as compared to that of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO); the correlation between ENSO and short rains is insignificant when the IOD influence is excluded. The IOD–short rains relationship does not change significantly in a model experiment in which the ENSO influence is removed by decoupling the ocean and atmosphere in the tropical Pacific. The partial correlation analysis of the model data demonstrates that a secondary influence comes from a regional mode located near the African coast.

Inconsistent with the observational findings, the model results show a steady evolution of IOD prior to extreme events of short rains. Dynamically consistent evolution of correlations is found in anomalies of the surface winds, currents, sea surface height, and sea surface temperature. Anomalous changes of the Walker circulation provide a necessary driving mechanism for anomalous moisture transport and convection over the coastal East Africa. The model results nicely augment the observational findings and provide us with a physical basis to consider IOD as a predictor for variations of the short rains. This is demonstrated in detail using the statistical analysis method. The prediction skill of the dipole mode SST index in July and August is 92% for the observation, which scales slightly higher for the model index (96%) in August. As observed in data, the model results show decadal weakening in the relationship between IOD and short rains owing to weakening in the IOD activity.
Multilevel Regression Modeling of Nonlinear Processes: Derivation and Applications to Climatic Variability
Authors: Kravtsov S. , Kondrashov D. , Ghil M.
Published: November 2005

Predictive models are constructed to best describe an observed field’s statistics within a given class of nonlinear dynamics driven by a spatially coherent noise that is white in time. For linear dynamics, such inverse stochastic models are obtained by multiple linear regression (MLR). Nonlinear dynamics, when more appropriate, is accommodated by applying multiple polynomial regression (MPR) instead; the resulting model uses polynomial predictors, but the dependence on the regression parameters is linear in both MPR and MLR.

The basic concepts are illustrated using the Lorenz convection model, the classical double-well problem, and a three-well problem in two space dimensions. Given a data sample that is long enough, MPR successfully reconstructs the model coefficients in the former two cases, while the resulting inverse model captures the three-regime structure of the system’s probability density function (PDF) in the latter case.

A novel multilevel generalization of the classic regression procedure is introduced next. In this generalization, the residual stochastic forcing at a given level is subsequently modeled as a function of variables at this level and all the preceding ones. The number of levels is determined so that the lag-0 covariance of the residual forcing converges to a constant matrix, while its lag-1 covariance vanishes.

This method has been applied to the output of a three-layer, quasigeostrophic model and to the analysis of Northern Hemisphere wintertime geopotential height anomalies. In both cases, the inverse model simulations reproduce well the multiregime structure of the PDF constructed in the subspace spanned by the dataset’s leading empirical orthogonal functions, as well as the detailed spectrum of the dataset’s temporal evolution. These encouraging results are interpreted in terms of the modeled low-frequency flow’s feedback on the statistics of the subgrid-scale processes.
Remote Connection of the Northeast Asian Summer Rainfall Variation Revealed by a Newly Defined Monsoon Index
Authors: Lee Eun-Jeong , Jhun Jong-Ghap , Park Chung-Kyu
Published: November 2005

A new northeast Asian summer monsoon index is introduced to investigate the characteristics of the northeast Asian summer rainfall variation, including Korea, Japan, and northeast China, and its possible connection to the tropical and midlatitude circulations. The summer precipitation over northeast Asia is separated into two components associated with tropical forcing and midlatitude dynamics using this monsoon index. The connection between the northeast Asian summer rainfall and ENSO is clearly identified by separating the Tropics-related component from the northeast Asian summer rainfall. That is, the Tropics-related precipitation over northeast Asia tends to be enhanced after the mature phase of El Niño. On the other hand, it is revealed that the extratropics-related component of summer precipitation is connected to the Eurasian wave pattern with no significant lag correlation.

The intensity of the western North Pacific anticyclone modulated by ENSO is a key factor in the variation of the northeast Asian summer precipitation. It is found that the warm SST over the tropical eastern Pacific plays an important role in establishing the western North Pacific anticyclone during the preceding winter of strong northeast Asian summer monsoon years, whereas convective activities over the Bay of Bengal are contributed to the modulation of the anticyclonic circulation in the summer. The warming over the Indian Ocean in the summer of strong monsoon years induces the development of the anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the suppressed convection over the western Pacific tends to enhance the northeast Asian summer rainfall through the Pacific–Japan or East Asia–Pacific teleconnections.
Simulation of Storm Occurrences Using Simulated Annealing
Authors: Lokupitiya Ravindra S. , Borgman Leon E. , Anderson-Sprecher Richard
Published: November 2005

Modeling storm occurrences has become a vital part of hurricane prediction. In this paper, a method for simulating event occurrences using a simulated annealing algorithm is described. The method is illustrated using annual counts of hurricanes and of tropical storms in the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico. Simulations closely match distributional properties, including possible correlations, in the historical data. For hurricanes, traditionally used Poisson and negative binomial processes also predict univariate properties well, but for tropical storms parametric methods are less successful. The authors determined that simulated annealing replicates properties of both series. Simulated annealing can be designed so that simulations mimic historical distributional properties to whatever degree is desired, including occurrence of extreme events and temporal patterning.
The 1935–2003 Air Temperature Record from the Summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire
Authors: Grant Andrea N. , Pszenny Alexander A. P. , Fischer Emily V.
Published: November 2005

Meteorological observations have been taken continuously at the summit of Mount Washington since 1932. Results of an analysis of the air temperature record over the 1935–2003 period show a statistically significant increase in mean temperature of ∼0.3°C, while the diurnal temperature range has decreased by ∼0.15°C. The decadal structure evident in the record reveals that, in contrast to North American trends, the summit experienced relatively cool temperatures in the 1940s. The late 1980s and early 1990s were relatively warm on the summit, in agreement with North American decadal trends. The times of daily maximum and minimum temperatures show that the summit climate is dominantly influenced by boundary layer processes 30% of the time and free air circulation 50% of the time. No evidence of a “weekend effect” was found.
Detection of Regional Surface Temperature Trends
Authors: Karoly David J. , Wu Qigang
Published: November 2005

Trends in surface temperature over the last 100, 50, and 30 yr at individual grid boxes in a 5° latitude–longitude grid are compared with model estimates of the natural internal variability of these trends and with the model response to increasing greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols. Three different climate models are used to provide estimates of the internal variability of trends, one of which appears to overestimate the observed variability of surface temperature at interannual and 5-yr time scales. Significant warming trends are found at a large fraction of the individual grid boxes over the globe, a much larger fraction than can be explained by internal climate variations. The observed warming trends over the last 50 and 30 yr are consistent with the modeled response to increasing greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols in most of the models. However, in some regions, the observed century-scale trends are significantly larger than the modeled response to increasing greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols in the atmosphere. Warming trends consistent with the response to anthropogenic forcing are detected at scales on the order of 500 km in many regions of the globe.
A Hierarchy of Data-Based ENSO Models
Authors: Kondrashov D. , Kravtsov S. , Robertson A. W. , Ghil M.
Published: November 2005

Global sea surface temperature (SST) evolution is analyzed by constructing predictive models that best describe the dataset’s statistics. These inverse models assume that the system’s variability is driven by spatially coherent, additive noise that is white in time and are constructed in the phase space of the dataset’s leading empirical orthogonal functions. Multiple linear regression has been widely used to obtain inverse stochastic models; it is generalized here in two ways. First, the dynamics is allowed to be nonlinear by using polynomial regression. Second, a multilevel extension of classic regression allows the additive noise to be correlated in time; to do so, the residual stochastic forcing at a given level is modeled as a function of variables at this level and the preceding ones. The number of variables, as well as the order of nonlinearity, is determined by optimizing model performance.

The two-level linear and quadratic models have a better El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) hindcast skill than their one-level counterparts. Estimates of skewness and kurtosis of the models’ simulated Niño-3 index reveal that the quadratic model reproduces better the observed asymmetry between the positive El Niño and negative La Niña events. The benefits of the quadratic model are less clear in terms of its overall, cross-validated hindcast skill; this model outperforms, however, the linear one in predicting the magnitude of extreme SST anomalies.

Seasonal ENSO dependence is captured by incorporating additive, as well as multiplicative forcing with a 12-month period into the first level of each model. The quasi-quadrennial ENSO oscillatory mode is robustly simulated by all models. The “spring barrier” of ENSO forecast skill is explained by Floquet and singular vector analysis, which show that the leading ENSO mode becomes strongly damped in summer, while nonnormal optimum growth has a strong peak in December.
Mary Wollstonecraft’s Enlightened Legacy
Authors: Botting Eileen Hunt
Published: November 2005

Charles Taylor recently used the term modern social imaginary to describe dominant sets of norms, practices, and expectations—such as the market economy or the public sphere—that are rooted in the philosophies of the European Enlightenment and have since permeated the common experience of life in the contemporary Western world. Building on Taylor’s argument, this article charts how Mary Wollstonecraft became one of the major philosophical sources from the Enlightenment era to shape the emergent modern social imaginary of the egalitarian family that increasingly serves as the background against which debates about the family take place today.
What Enlightenment Was, What It Still Might Be, and Why Kant May Have Been Right After All
Authors: Schmidt James
Published: November 2005

Debates about “the end(s) of Enlightenment” tend to confuse the Enlightenment (the historical period) with enlightenment (an activity whose nature and ends were the subject of much debate during the 18th century). This article explores the history of discussions of “enlightenment” and “the Enlightenment,” paying particular attention to the uncertainties the 18th century had about just what the former implied and the different ways in which the 19th and 20th centuries understood the latter.
The Enlightenment and Its Enemies
Authors: Garrard Graeme
Published: November 2005

The first part of this article addresses some of the semantic and conceptual problems that plague the terms the Enlightenment and the Counter-Enlightenment to tidy up their use and clarify their meaning. The second part assesses some of the most common and important criticisms that have been made of the Enlightenment by its enemies since the 18th century. It concludes that although the portraits of the Enlightenment that have been sketched by its enemies during the course of the centuries are often crude caricatures or grotesque distortions, they have scored some palpable hits against it, making it very hard for us to swallow the Enlightenment whole now.
Happiness and The Heavenly City of the Eighteenth-Century Philosophers
Authors: McMahon Darrin M.
Published: November 2005

This article reexamines Carl Becker’s The Heavenly City of the Eighteenth-Century Philosophers from the perspective of the history of happiness.
On Metaphysics and Nationality
Authors: Fox Russell Arben
Published: November 2005

The enlightenment ideal has long been under fire, but perhaps by nothing so much as the continuing appeal of national belonging. The nation’s affective hold on how people think about the world connects with metaphysical complaints with modernity, thereby making a rational response to nationalism especially difficult. This was an issue known to both Kant and Herder, who addressed themselves to the related metaphysical complications of nationality in very different ways. Although Herder’s rejection of many of Kant’s cosmopolitan claims is well known, the centrality of national affectivity to his religious approach to the problem of enlightenment is not as well understood, despite its equal importance to his overall critique of Kant. This article considers certain aspects of Kant’s and Herder’s rival enlightenment philosophies and suggests the superiority of Herderian arguments to understanding the way in which nations continue to play a normative role in a post-Enlightenment world.
Heidegger's Revelation
Authors: Linker Damon
Published: November 2005

This article treats the philosopher Martin Heidegger as an opponent of a transhistorical ideal of enlightenment—understood as philosophical reflection—and as an advocate for a counter-enlightenment ideal of revealed truth. The author examines Heidegger’s treatment of this theme in his early masterwork, Being and Time, and in several of his essays of the 1950s. The author concludes that despite the power of Heidegger’s assault on enlightenment, his counter-enlightenment project should be resisted.
Suture Anchors and Tacks for Shoulder Surgery, Part 1
Authors: McFarland Edward G. , Park Hyung Bin , Keyurapan Ekavit , Gill Harpreet S. , Selhi Harpal S.
Published: November 2005

The development and successful clinical application of suture anchors and tacks have revolutionized the surgeon's ability to secure soft tissues to bone via open or arthroscopic surgical techniques. When used carefully and with proper technique, these devices provide viable options for the repair and reconstruction of many intra-articular and extra-articular abnormalities in the shoulder, including rotator cuff tears, shoulder instability, and biceps lesions that require labrum repair or biceps tendon tenodesis. Like many technologies, however, the successful application of these devices requires an understanding of the biology and biomechanics that affect their use in the shoulder as well as knowledge of the factors that can affect subsequent clinical outcomes, including complications.
Community-Acquired Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus
Authors: Rihn Jeffrey A. , Michaels Marian G. , Harner Christopher D.
Published: November 2005

Participants of contact sports are at risk for outbreaks of skin and soft tissue infection. Causes of reported outbreaks include Staphylococcus aureus, herpes simplex virus, Streptococcus pyogenes, and several fungi. Although once thought of solely as a nosocomial pathogen, methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus has been identified as an emerging problem in the community, particularly in the athletic population. Despite a recent increase in reported outbreaks of community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus soft tissue infection in athletic teams, many sports medicine physicians are unfamiliar with the epidemiology of this pathogen. It is spread via person-to-person contact and is harbored within the anterior nares and on the skin of carriers. Outbreaks of community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus soft tissue infection are not treated by traditional β-lactam antibiotics, and they can be difficult to eradicate. Such infections have been associated with significant morbidity, with up to 70% of involved team members requiring hospitalization and intravenous antibiotics. A thorough understanding of community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus is essential for the sports medicine physician to properly identify, treat, and control infectious outbreaks.
Social Identity, Political Speech, and Electoral Competition
Authors: Dickson Eric S. , Scheve Kenneth
Published: November 2005

Much research in political science suggests that social identity can be an important factor in motivating behavior. If voters care about social identity, when will politicians find it in their interests to make group-based appeals? Do social identity concerns affect the policy platforms offered by candidates? In a model of political speech and electoral competition, in which voters care about both social identities and policy, we demonstrate that social identity concerns can lead to platform divergence even when the policy dimension is uncorrelated with identity. For example, policy-motivated politicians can employ identity rhetoric to obtain ‘slack’ in the policy dimension. Further, the need for candidates to resort to group-based appeals depends on such factors as the relative sizes of social groups; the policy preferences of group members; whether candidates care about policy and if so, their preferred policies; and the extent of individual identification with groups. The analysis demonstrates that social identity can have a striking impact on the strategic conduct of campaigns.
Legal Institutions and Informal Networks
Authors: de Mesquita Ethan Bueno , Stephenson Matthew
Published: November 2005

The relationship between third-party contract enforcement and informal networks raises important sociological, political, and economic questions. When economic activity is embedded in social structures, what are the implications of third-party contract enforcement for the scope and nature of economic relations? What determines whether individuals rely on formal legal institutions or informal networks to sustain trade relationships? Do legal institutions erode informal networks? We develop a model in which a trade-off exists between size and sustainability of networks. By adding the possibility of fee-based, enforceable contracts, we provide a theoretical explanation for the coexistence of legal contract enforcement and an informal economy. We find that legal enforcement has little effect on networks until law becomes sufficiently inexpensive, at which point small decreases in the cost of law have dramatic effects on network size and the frequency of use of the legal system.
Legislative Cooperation among Impatient Legislators
Authors: Fox Justin
Published: November 2005

Sufficient conditions for legislative cooperation are identified within the context of a model of repeated legislative interaction. We show that in many environments, cooperation is sustainable even among impatient legislators. Special attention is given to the case of repeated spatial bargaining; we find that when the dimensionality of the policy space is sufficiently large, parameterizations of the model which do not admit cooperation are rare and atypical. Furthermore, contrary to conventional wisdom, we demonstrate that legislative cooperation is possible in a one-dimensional policy space. The developed theory is applied to address various claims in the substantive literature on legislative parties.
Presidential Vetoes in Latin American Constitutions
Authors: Alemán Eduardo , Schwartz Thomas
Published: November 2005

A portrayal of the bill-to-law provisions of Latin American constitutions as extensive game forms shows presidential veto powers to be richer, more varied, and more regionally distinctive than hitherto appreciated. Small details and apparent redundancies are surprisingly consequential, the distribution of institutional advantages is both counterintuitive and incompatible with any simple pattern or overall measure of ‘presidential power’, and regional peculiarities turn out to have been rather well designed to encourage democratic responsibility and executive-legislative agreement more than executive dominance or interbranch deadlock.
Women's Use of Force
Authors: Miller Susan L. , Meloy Michelle L.
Published: November 2005

Following changes in law enforcement policies that encourage or mandate arrest of domestic violence offenders, a concomitant increase inwomen arrested and mandated to batterer treatment programs has resulted. Most research findings, however, suggest that heterosexual intimate violence is gendered, with abuse, power, and control wielded by men over their female partners, and that when women use violence, it is typically in selfdefense or for nonaggressive reasons. However, fewstudies have investigated the female batterer treatment programs and the context of thewomen's use of violence. Using qualitative data collected from observations of three female domestic violence offender programs, this article examines women's interpretations of their violent experiences. In addition, the findings raise policy-level questions about the appropriateness of such programs, weighing the costs and benefits of a criminal justice approach to women's use of force in intimate relationships.
An Examination of the Effectiveness of Domestic Violence Coordinating Councils
Authors: Allen Nicole E.
Published: November 2005

The community response to domestic violence has been characterized by a lack of coordination across systems. Recent efforts have focused on bringing together stakeholders from an array of community sectors to promote a comprehensive response. Coordinating councils are commonly employed to encourage such a response, yet little is known about the extent to which they effectively promote community change. This study examined 41 councils in one state to better understand (a) the types of issues they addressed, (b) the extent to which they reported accomplishing their goals, and (c) the degree to which councils' climate and membership influenced the extent to which they achieved their goals within the criminal justice system and in other community sectors (e.g., health care, human service).
Rape Survivors' Experiences With the Legal and Medical Systems
Authors: Campbell Rebecca
Published: November 2005

This study used a naturalistic quasi-experimental design to examine whether rape survivors who had the assistance of rape victim advocates had more positive experiences with the legal and medical systems compared to those who did not work with advocates. Eighty-one survivors were interviewed in two urban hospitals about what services they received from legal and medical system personnel and how they were treated during these interactions. Survivors who had the assistance of an advocate were significantly more likely to have police reports taken and were less likely to be treated negatively by police officers. These women also reported less distress after their contact with the legal system. Similarly, survivors who worked with an advocate during their emergency department care received more medical services, including emergency contraception and sexually transmitted disease prophylaxis, reported significantly fewer negative interpersonal interactions with medical system personnel, and reported less distress from their medical contact experiences.
A Summary of Personal Protection Order Statutes in the United States
Authors: DeJong Christina , Burgess-Proctor Amanda
Published: November 2005

A systematic analysis of statutes regarding personal protection orders (PPOs) was completed for all 50 states plus the District of Columbia to determine which states are most “victim friendly” in protecting women against domestic violence. Indicators used include compliance with the Violence Against Women Act (VAWA), the relationship between petitioner and respondent, ease of the PPO administrative process, and severity of punishment for violations. Results indicate that most states have PPO legislation that is consistent with VAWA; however, states differ dramatically in accessibility of orders for victims of violence.
Motherhood Plans among Young Australian Women
Authors: Lee Christina , Gramotnev Helen
Published: November 2005

Fertility rates in the developed world have been below replacement level for 25 years, and it is often assumed that this results from deliberate, unconstrained individual choice. Data from 7448 childless women aged 22 to 27, participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health, indicate that 9 per cent aspire to childlessness, with 72 per cent wanting 1 or 2 children and 19 per cent more. Differences in psychological functioning disappear after adjustment for socioeconomic variables. Women wanting 1 or 2 children also want paid work, while those wanting many children generally have traditional aspirations. Policy-makers need to consider strategies that support women to negotiate motherhood and paid work.