bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Magnetic fabric in carbonatic rocks from thrust shear zones
Authors: Satolli Sara , Robustelli Test Claudio , Zanella Elena , Staneczek Dorota , Calamita Fernando , Tema Evdokia
Published: March 2021

 

The aim of this study is to investigate how structural deformation in shear zones is documented by the anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility (AMS). The study area is located in the Pliocene outer thrust of the Northern Apennines, which involved Cretaceous to Neogene calcareous and marly rocks. Here, brittle-ductile tectonites show different characteristics along two differently oriented thrust ramps: the NNE-SSW-trending oblique thrust ramp is characterized by the presence of S tectonites, while the NW-SE-trending frontal ramp is characterized by the presence of SC tectonites.

Samples for AMS fabric investigation were collected on shear zones from three sectors of the belt, at different distance from the main thrust to detect possible magnetic fabric variations. The three study area are characterized by different combinations of simple and pure shear, thus different degree of non-coaxiality, which has been quantified through the vorticity number Wk.

Specimens were measured with an AGICO KLY-3 Kappabridge at the CIMaN-ALP Laboratory (Italy) on 15 different directions mode. Only measurements with all three F-statistics of the anisotropy tests higher than 5 were accepted as reliable. Moreover, outliers characterized by ± 2σ difference with respect to the mean value of AMS scalar parameters were excluded from further analysis. In order to distinguish groups of specimens affected by different sedimentary or tectonic processes, we identified clusters of AMS scalar parameters; when clusters were not defined by these parameters, we applied a combination of contouring and cluster analysis on each principal axis to identify different subfabrics.

The magnetic fabric revealed straightforward correlations with structural data and specific changes of AMS axis orientation depending upon the increasing of deformation (lower vorticity number) and proximity to the main thrust. Similar evolution was detected in different deformation regimes. Overall, the magnetic fabric is more sensitive to the simple shear deformation, as the magnetic lineation tends to parallelize mostly with the computed slip vector; however in pure-shear dominated regimes, the magnetic lineation becomes parallel to the transport direction when the deformation is really intense (sites at less than 15-30 cm from the thrust plane).

The applied combination of density diagrams and cluster analysis on AMS data successfully allowed discriminating subfabrics related to different events, and shows a great potential to unravel mixed sedimentary and/or tectonic features in magnetic fabrics.
Impacts of climatic changes on the Mediterranean population: public health aspects
Authors: Paz Shlomit
Published: March 2021

The Mediterranean Basin is undergoing a warming trend with longer and warmer summers, an increase in the frequency and the severity of heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns and a reduction in rainfall amounts. This populated region is characterized by significant gaps in the socio-economic levels, parallel with population growth and migration, increased water demand and forest fires risk. Consequently, the vulnerability of the Mediterranean population to human health risks increases significantly as a result of climate change.

Climatic changes impact the health of the Mediterranean population directly through extreme heat, drought or storms, or indirectly by changes in water availability, food provision and quality, air pollution and other stressors. The main health effects are related to extreme weather events, changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases (such as West Nile virus, chikungunya and zika) and changes in environmental and social conditions. The poorer countries, particularly in North Africa and the Levant, are at highest risk. Climate change affects the vulnerable sectors of the region, including an increasingly older population, with a larger percentage of those with chronic diseases, as well as poor people and migrants, which are therefore more susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. For those populations, a better surveillance and control systems are especially needed parallel with adaptation plans that become ever more imperative. In order to achieve these goals, it is essential to define indicators of vulnerability and exposure based on health impact assessment, as well as indicators that will promote adaptation planning and resilience for health risk management. In view of the climatic projections and the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries, such indicators will contribute to correct preparedness at the regional and national levels.
Multiscale Simulation of Precipitation over East Asia by Variable Resolution CAM-MPAS
Authors: Liang Yuan , Yang Ben , Wang Minghuai , Tang Jianping , Sakaguchi Koichi , Leung L. Ruby
Published: March 2021

Traditional global climate models (GCMs) with coarse uniform resolution (UR) usually have deficiency in simulating realistic results at regional scale, while experimental global high-resolution models show benefits but also raise much computational burden. In recent years, variable resolution (VR) models with unstructured mesh are found to provide comparable results at regional scale and require less computational resources. In this study, the variable resolution CAM-MPAS model with the MPAS (Model for Prediction Across Scales) dynamical core coupled with CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model Version 5) physics package is used to evaluate the effect of 30 km regional refinement over East Asia on the precipitation simulation. Our results show that the CAM-MPAS model can reasonably reproduce the annual and seasonal precipitation over East Asia, and the MPAS-VR simulation shows reduced mean bias and improvements in seasonal cycle, intensity distribution, and interannual variation compared with the low resolution MPAS-UR simulation. Furthermore, the major contribution to the improvements over the Tibet Plateau in the MPAS-VR experiment comes from the increase of the grid spacing rather than the terrain resolution.
Seismic Tomography of Southern Tyrrhenian by means of teleseismic data
Authors: Pucciarelli Giuseppe
Published: March 2021

The topic of my work is a seismic tomography which has as object the investigation of Southern Tyrrhenian. This tomography has been obtained by means of inversion of teleseismic data to investigate subduction zones in the Southern Tyrrhenian oceanic back-arc basin. The subducting lithosphere has been mostly consumed along the Tyrrhenian-Apennine system has been consumed with the exception of the Calabrian arc sector. This kind of inversion could provide a good resolution to depth of 500-600 km, whereas previous local tomographies of Southern Tyrrhenian show results to depth of 250-300 km. The adopted database consists of 1929 teleseisms  recorded in period 1990-2012 by 122 southern Italian seismic station directly connected to ISC (International Seismological Centre). The software FMTT was employed for the inversion of these arrival times. I have implemented a grid of 0-500 km in depth, 7°E-20°E in longitude and 35°-48° in latitude, with a grid spacing of 50 km in depth, 0.8 degrees in longitude and 0.4 degrees in latitude. I have made 10 horizontal sections of final model from 50 km of depth to 500 km of depth, with an interval of 50 km of depth from each other. I have made 8 vertical sections, 4 NS vertical sections at fixed longitude and 4 WE vertical sections at fixed latitude. Finally, I have made 3 transversal sections. Summarising, the horizontal sections show an evolution of the high velocity body that represents the Ionian slab. It is visible both at depth of 50 km and at depth of 100 km, beneath the Calabrian arc and extends to northern Sicily beneath the Aeolian arc with a maximum of 0.6-0.8 km/s. At depth of 250 km, the tomography evidences a sort of “transition” due to the absence of the Southern Tyrrhenian HVA and the occurrence of a low velocity region with maximum of -0.5 km/s scattered between the Aeolian Islands and Calabria. In the depth interval from 250 km to 400 km, there are two impressive high velocity areas in northern Sicily and along southern Campania with a value of 0.3 km/s, separated by a low velocity area (LVA) along the Calabrian arc and the Aeolian Islands in the range [0.4 ; 0.6] km/s. Extensions of HVAs and LVAs previously mentioned have been estimated by means of vertical and transversal sections. This evidence could be interpreted as the effect of a three-dimensional circulation of astenospheric flow provoked by slab roll-back. A new evidence from the tomography is the presence of a LVA in the [250 ; 400] km depth interval with an extension of 100-150 km that practically splits the Tyrrhenian slab into two parts, in Neapolitan region and in the southern Calabria-northern Sicily region. The presence of this “window slab” could be interpreted as a tear in which unperturbed mantle insert itself.
RainBench: Enabling Data-Driven Precipitation Forecasting on a Global Scale
Authors: Schroeder de Witt Christian , Tong Catherine , Zantedeschi Valentina , De Martini Daniele , Kalaitzis Alfredo , Chantry Matthew , Watson-Parris Duncan , Bilinski Piotr
Published: March 2021

Climate change is expected to aggravate extreme precipitation events, directly impacting the livelihood of millions. Without a global precipitation forecasting system in place, many regions – especially those constrained in resources to collect expensive ground station data – are left behind. To mitigate such unequal reach of climate change, a solution is to alleviate the reliance on numerical models (and by extension ground station data) by enabling machine-learning-based global forecasts from satellite imagery. Though prior works exist in regional precipitation nowcasting, there lacks work in global, medium-term precipitation forecasting. Importantly, a common, accessible baseline for meaningful comparison is absent. In this work, we present RainBench, a multi-modal benchmark dataset dedicated to advancing global precipitation forecasting. We establish baseline tasks and release PyRain, a data-handling pipeline to enable efficient processing of decades-worth of data by any modeling framework. Whilst our work serves as a basis for a new chapter on global precipitation forecasting from satellite imagery, the greater promise lies in the community joining forces to use our released datasets and tools in developing machine learning approaches to tackle this important challenge.
Improved water footprint of oil palm products using eddy covariance measurements of evapotranspiration
Authors: Herz Joris , Meijide Ana , Stiegler Christian , Holmatov Bunyod , Knohl Alexander , Nouri Hamideh
Published: March 2021

The global population growth and changes in human lifestyle and consumption patterns put immense pressure on the limited freshwater resources in the world. Aiming at sustainable use and equitable allocation of the water resources, it becomes crucial to know the water appropriation for the production of different commodities and consumer goods. These days, oil palm (Elaeis guineensis) is one of the highest-demanded crops around the globe since the oil of its fruits and kernel is widely used as biofuel and major ingredients in food and cosmetic industries. Given this massive demand, the areas under oil palm cultivation in the tropics have continuously been expanding in the last decades, particularly in Indonesia. With the oil palm boom, not only biodiversity loss, and carbon dioxide emissions from deforestation have been increasing, but also the consumptions of blue and green water resources are of concern. 

In this ongoing research, the concept of water footprint (WF) is employed to quantify the green and blue water use of oil palm production in the Bajubang district, Batanghari regency, Jambi province, Sumatra, Indonesia. This is one of the first studies that uses field-measured data of evapotranspiration (ET) from oil palm plantations in different growth stages over seven years for the purpose of WF assessment, compared to the available literature where ET was estimated using modelling approaches. The multi-year measurements were conducted using the eddy covariance technique, which continuously measures water vapor (H2O) fluxes at the ecosystem level over the plantation. Based on these measurements, specifically, the WF assessment is performed on a product basis during the plantation life cycle, per area and time unit, for the oil palm fruit yield and oil palm derived products (palm oil, palm-oil biodiesel). Besides the crop water consumption at the plantation (i.e. ET) as the core element, other water consumptions in the products’ processing chain are included in the WF assessment. Preliminary results indicate a WF of 2440 m3 t-1 for palm oil and 65 m3 GJ-1 for palm-oil biodiesel. This is about 50% lower than the global average estimates. Local WF account of oil palm products has a critical contribution to product transparency while being useful for comparative purposes. Contrasting the WFs of products serving the same function (e.g., palm oil biodiesel, soybean biodiesel) is of essential importance, aiming at conscious product choices in a world of freshwater scarcity.

Keywords: water footprint, oil palm, palm oil, Indonesia, eddy covariance, evapotranspiration
Nonlinear dynamic pressure beneath waves in water of large and intermediate depth
Authors: Kokorina Anna , Slunyaev Alexey , Klein Marco
Published: March 2021

The data of simultaneous measurements of the surface displacement produced by propagating planar waves in experimental flume and of the dynamic pressure fields beneath the waves are compared with the theoretical predictions based on different approximations for modulated potential gravity waves. The performance of different theories to reconstruct the pressure field from the known surface displacement time series (the direct problem) is investigated. A new two-component theory for weakly modulated weakly nonlinear waves is proposed, which exhibits the best capability among the considered. Peculiarities of the vertical modes of the nonlinear pressure harmonics are discussed.

 

The work was supported by the RFBR projects 19-55-15005 and 20-05-00162 (AK).
Rainfall in the desert: anatomy of rainfall events in the United Arab Emirates
Authors: Nicoll Keri , Airey Martin , Harrison R. Giles , Marlton Graeme
Published: March 2021

The occurrence and characteristics of rainfall events in arid and water scarce regions are of great interest to many, as it is vital to understand the efficient use of this finite resource, for example in terms of water management, agriculture, irrigation, and domestic food security. Fundamental to this is understanding the numerous environmental aspects that affect the generation and persistence of rain. These include the presence of cloud droplets, activation and growth processes,  temperature and relative humidity of the within and below cloud regions, and the cloud base height. Not only must what causes rainfall to be initiated be understood, but also the conditions that allow that rain to reach the surface.

 

This work examines the conditions required for a successful rain event (i.e. one in which rainfall reaches the ground) to occur in the arid desert region of Al Ain, in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (annual rainfall 76mm).  The high surface temperatures and dry air mean that rain events at Al Ain commonly occur as virga, as the rain droplets cannot survive evaporation under the local atmospheric conditions.  Here we examine individual rainfall events using backscatter data from a laser ceilometer, in conjunction with C-band radar data, to further understand the processes required for successful rain generation.  During the 2 year period of study, there was a total of 57.5 hours of rain (rainfall 0.5% of the time), with a total of 105 rainfall events.  Here we examine the effect on rainfall of (a) the initial size of the droplets falling from the cloud base, which must be large enough to survive the fall to the surface; and (b) the effect of the below cloud thermodynamic profile on the evaporation of the droplet (which also depends on the height of the cloud base). Preliminary conclusions find that smaller droplets, higher cloud bases, smaller cloud depths, and lower cloud base temperatures all favour the occurrence of a rain event terminating as virga before it reaches the surface. Understanding the details of why many potential rainfall events don’t reach the surface can ultimately lead to the more efficient implementation of rainfall enhancing measures such as cloud seeding.

 
Comparing temperature trends and variability over the Holocene in climate models of low and high complexity
Authors: Wirths Christian , Ziegler Elisa , Toohey Matthew , Schindlbeck-Belo Julie Christin , Kutterolf Steffen , Anders Heather , Rehfeld Kira
Published: March 2021

Modeled and observed temperature trends over the Holocene disagree. Proxy reconstructions suggest global cooling during the late Holocene. Model simulations, on the other hand, show a warming trend for the entire Holocene, a contradiction known as the Holocene temperature conundrum.  

A recent study by Bader et. al. (2020) introduced a new approach to the question by proposing the coexistence of a cooling and warming climate mode. While the warming mode is proposed to be related to changes in greenhouse gas concentrations, the physical process behind the cooling mode might be a change in the seasonal cycle of Arctic sea-ice. It’s unclear to what extent this process is responsible for the observed climate response. Depending on their strength and location these modes have strong implications for proxy data interpretation and location selection when calculating global mean temperatures.   

Here, we investigate if similar modes and temperature trends can be found in models of different complexity. Therefore, we use a 2D Energy Balance Model (EBM), with solar, volcanic, ice-sheet and greenhouse gas forcing, for transient simulations of the Holocene climate. We analyze these Holocene climate simulations in terms of global and regional temperature trends, modes and variability patterns. We conduct sensitivity tests to examine the influence of the forcings on those trends and modes. In particular, we are interested in the influence of volcanic eruptions on the Holocene climate. Furthermore, we compare our model results with temperature reconstructions and simulations from Earth System Models.    

Altogether, we comprehensively analyze Holocene climate as simulated by a conceptual EBM, a state-of-the-art Earth System Model and proxy reconstructions. The results provide insight into whether models of different complexity produce similar modes and trends and whether these occur due to climate forcing rather than internal processes of the earth system. Finally, we will provide a better understanding of Holocene cooling and warming and the interpretation of differences between Holocene temperature proxy reconstructions and climate model simulations.    

 

References:  
Bader, J., Jungclaus, J., Krivova, N. et al. Global temperature modes shed light on the Holocene temperature conundrum. Nat Commun 11, 4726 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18478-6 
Optical detection of alpha emitting radionuclides in the environment
Authors: Krasniqi Faton
Published: March 2021

Radiological emergencies involving accidental or deliberate dispersion of alpha emitting radionuclides in the environment can cause significant damage to humans and societies in general. A detection system to measure large-scale contamination of these radionuclides is currently not available. In case of a contamination, the only option is to evacuate the population from the affected areas and then run diagnostics by hand due to the short range of alpha particles in air, exposing thus the emergency teams to considerable risk. Even then, the results of emergency field applications are notoriously ambiguous, time consuming and tedious due to the centimetre range of the alpha particles in air. A novel detection approach which is capable of remote detection of alpha-emitting radionuclides in the environment will be reported. This approach will assist the on-site incident management and will enable detection of contamination threats without contact—from safe distances—avoiding thus contamination of operators and equipment.
A study on the interaction between extreme waves and coastal development processes for identification of tsunami and storm deposits in the tsunami far-field
Authors: Nakanishi Ryo , Ashi Juichiro , Yokoyama Yusuke , Miyairi Yosuke
Published: March 2021

In order to estimate the size and the origin of giant tsunamis, it is useful to investigate “tsunami far-field” as the coastal area far from the source. However, it is challenging to distinguish a tsunami deposit from an extreme storm deposit in these areas. In this study, we report sand layers induced by extreme waves on the coast of Hokkaido, Japan, facing the southern Kuril Trench. In the study area (central part of the Hidaka coast), it is said that the tsunamis caused by observed earthquakes have never exceeded the dune or beach. However, geological evidence indicates that giant earthquakes and tsunamis occurred at intervals of several hundred years in the Kuril Trench, and the traces of these tsunamis are still unclear in the Hidaka region.

The study area can be classified into the inland zone consisting of peatland and the seaward zone consisting of floodplain muds by the paleo beach ridge. We identified three volcanic ash layers and three to four sand layers with clear boundaries to the ordinary mud layer in each zone. However, there are large gaps in the ages of the sand layers discovered in both inland and seaward zones, and their distributions are limited (ranging from a few tens to 100 m from the ridge at that time) and do not overlap. To understand the peculiarities of the depositional age and distribution of the sand layers, we clarified the sedimentary environmental changes and sea-level index in the late Holocene by analyzing the diatom assemblage and CNS of the mud layer. The inland zone showed the paleoenvironments from the sandy tidal flat formed by the transgression in the mid-Holocene to the beach ridge formed by the regression, and the sheet sand layers were formed only during the period of the beach ridge development. On the other hand, the seaward zone showed various changes due to the formation of meandering rivers and beach ridges associated with the regression, and the formation of recognizable event layers is accompanied by changes in the depositional environment, such as the opening of lagoons and rapid changes to upland. Thus, especially in the tsunami far-field, the preservation potential of the event layers is strongly influenced by the coastal development and relative sea level, and such geological information will provide clues to identify the origin of the sand layer. In the presentation, the numerical simulation of the paleo-tsunami considering the reconstructed relative sea-level change and topographic development will be reported.
Research Progresses of Ionospheric Plasma Irregularities from the Ground–Based Airglow Network in China
Authors: Xu Jiyao , Yuan Wei , Wu Kun , Sun Longchang
Published: March 2021

China, from north to south, spans from the middle latitudes to the low latitude both in geographic latitude and geomagnetic latitude. And China has a variety of topography environment, which including high lands, plains, seas, and long coasts. To better understand topographic and latitudinal effects on the mesosphere and thermosphere and features of ionospheric plasma irregularities at various latitudes in China, we have established a ground-based airglow network in China gradually since 2010, which consists of 16 stations. This network almost cover China, which focuses on two airglow layers: the OI (~250 km) and OH (~87 km) airglow layers. The observations from OI airglow layers provide convenience to systematically investigate the morphologic feature and evolution of ionospheric plasma irregularities over China. Based on the airglow network observations, we mainly report some important research results of ionospheric plasma irregularities in recent years. These findings include (1) statistical characteristic of equatorial plasma bubble (EPB) over China, (2) the influences of severe extreme weather events on the ionosphere, (3) interaction between medium-scale traveling ionospheric disturbance (MSTIDs) and ionospheric irregularity, and (4) some new phenomena of ionospheric irregularities.
The effect of the GNSS time transfer performance for geopotential difference determination
Authors: Cai Chenghui , Shen Wen-Bin , Shen Ziyu , Xu Wei , Wang Lei
Published: March 2021

The quick development of the global navigation satellite system (GNSS) time transfer technique provides a good opportunity to determine the geopotential difference based on the general relativity theory (GRT). In this study, we propose an approach that uses the precise point positioning (PPP) technique to directly compute clock offsets between two clocks at two arbitrary positions for the purpose of determining the geopotential difference and the accuracy of this approach depends not only on both the accuracies and stabilities of clocks, but also the time transfer technique itself. To validate the relationship between the performance of GNSS time transfer and the accuracy of this approach, simulation experiments are conducted. We evaluated the performances of GNSS time transfer in different cases using different type of free-running clocks, and results show that the proposed approach could be applied to testing GRT. This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundations of China (grant Nos. 41721003, 42030105, 41804012, 41631072, 41874023, 41574007), Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province of China (grant Nos. 2019CFB611), and Space Station Project (2020)228.
A synthesis of upper ocean geostrophic kinetic energy spectra from a global submesoscale permitting simulation
Authors: Khatri Hemant , Griffies Stephen , Uchida Takaya , Wang Han , Menemenlis Dimitris
Published: March 2021

In the upper ocean, submesoscale turbulence shows seasonal variability and is pronounced in winter. We analyze geostrophic KE spectra in a submesoscale-permitting global ocean model to study the seasonal variability in the upper ocean turbulence. Submesoscale processes peak in winter and, consequently, geostrophic kinetic energy (KE) spectra tend to be relatively shallow in winter (k-2) with steeper spectra in summer (k-3). The roles of frontogenesis processes and mixed-layer instabilities in submesoscale turbulence and their effects on the evolution of KE spectra over an annual cycle are discussed. It is shown that this transition in KE spectral scaling has two phases. In the first phase (late autumn), KE spectra show a presence of two spectral regimes: k-3 scaling in mesoscales (100-300 km) and k-2 scaling in submesoscales (< 50 km), indicating the coexistence of QG, surface-QG, and frontal dynamics. In the second phase (late winter), mixed-layer instabilities convert available potential energy into KE, which cascades upscale leading to flattening of the KE spectra at larger scales, and k-2 power-law develops in mesoscales too.
Spatio-temporal detection of converting from cropland to forest/grassland on the Loess Plateau using all available Landsat time-series images
Authors: Wang Zhihui , Xiao Peiqing
Published: March 2021

Conversion of cropland to forest/grassland has become a key ecological restoration measure on the Loess Plateau since 1999. Accurate mapping of the spatio-temporal dynamic information of conversion from cropland into forest/grassland is necessary for studying the effects of vegetation change on hydro-ecological process and soil and water conservation on the Loess Plateau, China. Currently, the accuracy of change detection of farmland and forest/grassland at 30-m scale in this area is seriously affected by insufficient temporal information from observations and irregular fluctuations in vegetation greenness caused by precipitation and human activities. In this study, an innovative method for continuous change detection of cropland and forest/grassland using all available Landsat time-series data. The period with vegetation coverage is firstly identified using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series. The intra-annual NDVI time series is then developed at a 1-day resolution based on linear interpolation and S-G filtering using all available NDVI data during the period when vegetation types are stable. Vegetation type change is initially detected by comparing the NDVI of intra-annual composites and the newly observed NDVI. Finally, the time of change and classification for vegetation types are determined using decision tree rules developed using a combination of inter-annual and intra-annual NDVI temporal metrics. Validation results showed that the change detection was accurate, with an overall accuracy of 88.9% ± 1.0%, and a kappa coefficient of 0.86, and the time of change was successfully retrieved, with 85.2% of the change pixels attributed to within a 2-year deviation.
Exploring stage-based flood frequency analysis for flood inundation mapping
Authors: Singh Shobhit , Swarnkar Somil , Sinha Rajiv
Published: March 2021

Floods are one of the worst natural hazards around the globe and around 40% of all losses worldwide due to natural hazard have been caused by floods since 1980s. In India, more than 40 million hectares of area are affected by floods annually which makes it one of the worst affected country in the world. In particular, the Ganga river basin in northern India which hosts nearly half a billion people, is one of the worst floods affected regions in the country. The Ghaghra river is one of the highest discharge-carrying tributaries of the Ganga river, which originates from High Himalaya. Despite severally affected by floods each year, flood frequencies of the Ghaghra river are poorly understood, making it one of the least studied river basins in the Ganga basin. It is important to note that, like several other rivers in India, the Ghaghra also has several hydrological stations where only stage data is available, and therefore traditional flood frequency analysis using discharge data becomes difficult. In this work, we have performed flood frequency analysis using both stage and discharge dataset at three different gauge stations in the Ghaghra river basin to compare the results using statistical methods. The L-moment analysis is applied to assess the probability distribution for the flood frequency analysis. Further, we have used the TanDEM-x 90m digital elevation model (DEM) to map the flood inundation regions. Our results suggest the Weibull is statistically significant distribution for the discharge dataset. However, stage above danger level (SADL) follows General Pareto (GP3) and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions. The quantile-quantile plot analysis suggests that the SADL probability distributions (GP3 and GEV) are closely following the theoretical probability distributions. However, the discharge distribution (Weibull) is showing a relatively weak corelation with the theoretical probability distribution. We further used the probability distribution to assess the SADL frequencies at 5-, 10-, 20-, 50- and 100-year return periods. The magnitudes of SADL at different return periods were then used to map the water inundation areas around different gauging stations. These inundation maps were cross-validated with the globally available flooding extent maps provided by Dartmouth flood observatory. Overall, this work exhibits a simple and novel technique to generate inundation maps around the gauging locations without using any sophisticated hydraulics models.
The risk of large-scale trade bottlenecks due to simultaneous port disruptions
Authors: Verschuur Jasper , Koks Elco , Hall Jim
Published: March 2021

Reliable port infrastructure is essential for the facilitation of international trade flows. Disruptions to port infrastructure can result in trade bottlenecks, in particular if multiple key ports are affected simultaneously due to natural disasters with large spatial footprints such as earthquakes and tropical cyclones (Verschuur et al. 2019). For instance, Hurricane Katrina (2005) disrupted port operations in multiple ports in New Orleans, which transport around 45% of the country’s food and farm products, resulting in more than USD800 million export losses and price spikes of food products (Trepte and Rice, 2014). In order to improve the resilience of the transport and supply-chain network, the risk of large-scale trade bottlenecks need to be quantified on global scale. However, to date, the risk of single and multiple port failures due to large-scale natural disasters, and the resulting consequences, has not yet been explored.

 

Here, we present a global analysis of the risk of simultaneous port disruptions due to tropical cyclones and the associated risk of bottlenecks in the national and global maritime trade network. To do this, we have combined a new global dataset on the port-to-port trade network with 10,000 years of synthetic tropical cyclone tracks (Bloemendaal et al., 2020) and an impact-module that estimates the duration of the port disruption as a function of cyclone wind speed. We show how certain countries and specific economic sectors within countries are at risk of large-scale trade bottlenecks, mainly due to the concentration of trade in a few key ports that are geographically clustered.

 

These results can be used to stress test the global maritime transport network and inform strategies to improve supply-chain resilience (e.g. diversification of transport and import). Moreover, it can support port planning on a national level to make strategic investments to reduce the risk of trade bottlenecks or to design post-disaster emergency response strategies (e.g. rerouting strategies to alternative ports).
Global Climate Model Simulations of Natural Aerosols over the Southern Ocean
Authors: Bhatti Yusuf , Revell Laura , McDonald Adrian , Willaims Jonny
Published: March 2021

We studied sulfate aerosols over the Southern Ocean using the atmosphere-only climate model HadGEM3-GA7.1. The model contains biases in the aerosol seasonal variability over the Southern Ocean (40°S to 60°S), which cascade to uncertainties in aerosol-cloud interactions. Aerosols over the Southern Ocean are primarily natural in origin, such as sea spray aerosol and sulfate aerosol formed by phytoplankton-produced dimethyl sulfide (DMS).

The current sulfate chemistry scheme implemented in the model simplifies the oxidation pathways for DMS, which has been identified as a major source of the seasonal bias present. The simulations performed here incorporate a comprehensive sulfate scheme in both the gas and aqueous-phase. An intermediate complexity biogeochemical dynamic model, MEDUSA, simulated a global climatology of seawater DMS, which is compared with a seawater DMS observational dataset from 2011. We compared the seasonality of sulfate aerosols over the Southern Ocean, and the global distribution using the two seawater DMS climatologies. Simulated aerosols over the Southern Ocean were evaluated against satellite and in-situ observations. The results show the impact of seawater DMS on sulfate aerosols and their influence on cloud formation.
Increased vulnerability of European ecosystems to two consecutive extreme summers
Authors: Bastos Ana , Orth René , Reichstein Markus , Ciais Philippe , Viovy Nicolas , Zaehle Sönke , Anthoni Peter , Arneth Almut , Gentine Pierre , Joetzjer Emilie , Lienert Sebastian , Loughran Tammas , McGuire Patrick C. , Oh Sungmin , Pongratz Julia , Sitch Stephen
Published: March 2021

Extreme summer temperatures in western and central Europe have become more frequent and heatwaves more prolonged over the past decades. The summer of 2018 was one of the driest and hottest in the observational record and led to losses in vegetation productivity in central Europe by up to 50%. Legacy effects from such extreme summers can affect ecosystem functioning over several years, as vegetation slowly recovers. In 2019 an extremely dry and hot summer was registered again in the region, imposing stress conditions at a time when ecosystems were still recovering from summer 2018.

Using Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) fields from MODIS, we evaluate how ecosystems in central Europe responded to the occurrence of two consecutive extreme summers. We find that only ca. 21% of the area negatively impacted by drought in summer 2018 fully recovered in 2019.

We find that the strongest EVI anomalies in 2018/19 diverge from the long-term relationships between EVI and climate, indicating an increase in ecosystem vulnerability to heat and drought events. Furthermore, 18% of the area showed a worsening of plant status during summer 2019 in spite of drought alleviation, which could be explained by interannual legacy effects from 2018, such as impaired growth and increased biotic disturbances.

Land-surface models do not simulate interannual legacy effects from summer 2018 and thereby underestimate the impact of drought in 2019 on ecosystems. The poor representation of drought-induced damage and mortality and lack of biotic disturbances in these models may result in an overestimation of the resilience and stability of temperate ecosystems in the future.
Theoretical frame for the application of IOST in the downward continuation of GOCE SGG data
Authors: Tziavos Ilias N. , Natsiopoulos Dimitrios A. , Vergos Georgios S. , Pitenis Eleftherios A. , Mamagiannou Elisavet G.
Published: March 2021

Within the GeoGravGOCE project, funded by the Hellenic Foundation for Research Innovation, one of the main goals is the investigation of downward continuation schemes for the GOCE Satellite Gravity Gradiometry (SGG) data. It is well known that once the original SGG observations have been filtered to the GOCE Measurement Band Width (MBW), in order to remove noise and long-wavelength correlated errors, a crucial point for gravity field and geoid determination refers to the combination of GOCE data with local gravity field information. One possible way to exploit GOCE data is to use them in a Spherical Harmonic Synthesis (SHS) to derive a GOCE-only and/or a combined Global Geopotential Model. Our aim is to overcome the inherent smoothing of SHS and use directly the SGG data in order to investigate their contribution to regional gravity field and geoid determination. For that, methods based on the input-output-system-theory (IOST) are used for the combination of heterogeneous data at the Earth’s surface and at the satellite altitude or a mean sphere. The GOCE Level 2 gradients are first processed, transformed and reduced to a mean orbit using the IOST methods and then are downward continued to the Earth’s surface with an iterative Monte Carlo method (simulated annealing - SA). In this work we present the theoretical background of the proposed methodology and key-concepts for its implementation.
Sea-ice growth from the top: Meteoric ice and snow in the northwestern Weddell Sea, Antarctica
Authors: Arndt Stefanie , Meyer Hanno , Peeken Ilka , Haas Christian
Published: March 2021

Summer sea ice extent in the Weddell Sea has increased overall during the last four decades, with large interannual variations. However, the underlying causes and the related ice and snow properties are still poorly known.

Here, we present results of the interdisciplinary Weddell Sea Ice (WedIce) project carried out in the northwestern Weddell Sea on board the German icebreaker R/V Polarstern in February and March 2019, i.e. at the end of the summer ablation period, focusing on 21 ice cores sampled for texture, salinity and isotope analysis.

The ice at the coring sites had an average thickness of 178 cm with an average snow depth of 13 cm and a consistently positive freeboard. Isotope and salinity analyses revealed an average meteoric ice fraction of 23%. This included about 17% (22cm) snow-ice, saline sea ice formed by flooding and refreezing of snow at the snow/ice interface. In contrast, superimposed ice, fresh sea ice formed through melting and refreezing of snow only, account for about 6% (11cm) of the sea-ice thickness. The comparison of our results with previous expeditions to the same region shows that the thickness of superimposed ice has hardly increased, indicating no dominant changes in the amount of surface summer melt/thaw, despite the observed sea ice decline in the northwestern Weddell Sea during summer in recent years.

However, we consider the evolution of snow properties, and in particular the proportion of meteoric ice in the snow cover, as a critical indicator for significant changes in the coupled atmosphere/sea ice/ocean system.
Using reconstructed Irminger Water changes within the past three decades to connect the West Greenland shelf to the production of Labrador Sea Water
Authors: Wiegand Kevin Niklas , Kieke Dagmar , Myers Paul G.
Published: March 2021

In this study we analyze the exchange processes between the West Greenland shelf and the Labrador Sea. This region is affected by warm and saline waters originating from the subtropical North Atlantic, as well as cold and fresh waters from the Arctic and the Greenland Ice Sheet. Heat and freshwater both impact the local formation of Labrador Sea Water (LSW) that itself is a major contributor to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

We use the ARMOR3D large-scale hydrographic data set from the Copernicus Marine Environmental Monitoring Service (CMEMS) and validate it with ship-based measurements in the period between 1993 to 2018. By extracting cross-shelf sections from ARMOR3D for various locations around Greenland, we reconstruct time series of local water masses like the Irminger Water (IW) for the past three decades. Previous studies from the West Greenland shelf have shown that IW properties are locally anti-correlated to changes in LSW. We analyze the interannual and decadal variability of these IW time series and compare them towards hydrographic changes observed in the interior Labrador Sea.

Since ARMOR3D allows us to investigate interannual and decadal changes along cross-shelf sections, the goal of this study is to unravel the complex connection between changes in the shelf regions around Greenland and the interior Labrador Sea, especially the local water mass production.
Natural Gamma-Ray Background Characterization in Pyhasalmi Mine
Authors: Gostilo Vladimir , Pohuliai Serhii , Sokolov Alexander , Joutsenvaara Jari , Puputti Julia
Published: March 2021

We present the results of measuring the gamma-ray background performance of Pyhasalmi mine, the deepest one in Europe. Two underground facilities in Lab 2 (1440 m) and Lab 5 (1410 m) were investigated. Based on measurements made in Lab 2 with a low-background HPGe spectrometer, we determined the integral gamma-ray background count rate in the energy range of 40 keV to 2.7 MeV to be 0.095 s–1 kg–1. The minimum detectable activities of some natural and artificial nuclides were less than 0.071 Bq/kg (226Ra), 0.77 Bq/kg (40K) and 0.012 Bq/kg (137Cs). The specific activities of natural nuclides in the shotcrete covering the walls of the Lab 2 were higher than those in the rock: 100.3 Bq/kg (232Th), 161.7 Bq/kg (226Ra) and 1171 Bq/kg (40K) in the shotcrete covering and 47.6 Bq/kg (232Th), 83.1 Bq/kg (226Ra) and 1513 Bq/kg (40K) in the rock. The measurements showed that the gamma-ray background level in Lab 5 is significantly lower than that in Lab 2. The integrated gamma-ray background count rate for the energy range of 40 keV to 2.7 MeV was 0.028 s–1 kg–1 for Lab 5. Purging the measuring chamber of the gamma spectrometer with nitrogen gas at a rate of 0.15 L/h allowed to further improve this parameter to 0.021 s–1 kg–1. In general, the results of this study confirm that the level and energy spectrum of background gamma radiation in the underground facility within the studied energy range is defined mainly by the composition of the walls of the Labs.

 
Higher-Order Statistics in Compressive Solar Wind Plasma Turbulence: High-Resolution Density Observations From the Magnetospheric MultiScale Mission
Authors: Roberts Owen , Thwaites Jessica , Sorriso-Valvo Luca , Nakamura Rumi , Voros Zoltan
Published: March 2021

Turbulent density fluctuations are investigated in the solar wind at sub-ion scales using calibrated spacecraft potential. The measurement technique using the spacecraft potential allows for a much higher time resolution and sensitivity when compared to direct measurements using plasma instruments. Using this novel method, density fluctuations can be measured with unprecedentedly high time resolutions for in situ measurements of solar wind plasma at 1 a.u. By investigating 1 h of high-time resolution data, the scale dependant kurtosis is calculated by varying the time lag τ to calculate increments between observations. The scale-dependent kurtosis is found to increase towards ion scales but then plateaus and remains fairly constant through the sub-ion range in a similar fashion to magnetic field measurements. The sub-ion range is also found to exhibit self-similar monofractal behavior contrasting sharply with the multi-fractal behavior at large scales. The scale-dependent kurtosis is also calculated using increments between two different spacecraft. When the time lags are converted using the ion bulk velocity to a comparable spatial lag, a discrepancy is observed between the two measurement techniques. Several different possibilities are discussed including a breakdown of Taylor’s hypothesis, high-frequency plasma waves, or intrinsic differences between sampling directions.
Dust-aerosol optical depth in CMIP6 models and implication for PV-power generation
Authors: Scheele Robert , Fiedler Stephanie
Published: March 2021

Renewable energy produced by photovoltaic (PV) power plants strongly depends on the meteorological conditions. Desert-dust aerosols impair the radiative transfer in the atmosphere, but their effect on PV power is poorly understood from a climatological perspective. Past climate model simulations are known to have a large spread in dust-aerosol loading. With the new CMIP6 model simulations now being available, we revisit the climate-model spread in representing desert-dust aerosols for 1985 to 2014, assess the dust-aerosol changes until 2100, and estimate the associated differences in the PV power potential. To this end, we evaluate the dust aerosol optical depth (DOD) in the CMIP6 historical simulations using modern reanalysis and satellite data. Our results highlight the persistent model spread for DOD in CMIP6, but a multi-model mean DOD close to the reanalysis and satellite data. We identify only slight changes in both the global and regional mean DOD in a green scenario (ssp126) at the end of the 21st century. For a future with continued strong warming (ssp245, ssp585), the simulations suggest an increase (decrease) in regional DOD associated with North-African, Transatlantic transport, and Australia (Taklamakan Desert) dust emissions. The differences in simulated DOD imply changes in the PV power potential for regions affected by dust aerosols. We compute the change in the PV power potential from surface irradiance, temperature, and wind speed in the CMIP6 scenarios against present-day. Our results point to a PV power potential for North Africa that is similarly affected by a future increase in temperature and decrease in irradiance associated with more dust aerosols. In mid-latitude regions of the northern hemisphere, a future change in PV power potential is controlled by changes of clouds and temperature. Our PV power estimates underline the impacts of the model uncertainty in DOD, the degree of future warming, and the unclear response of clouds and circulation to the warming.