bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Applications and Prospects for Triplet–Triplet Annihilation Photon Upconversion
Authors: Rauch Martin P. , Knowles Robert R.
Published: August 2018

Triplet–triplet annihilation photon upconversion (TTA-UC) is a photophysical process in which the energy of two photons are combined into a single photon of higher energy. While this strategy has been recognized in applications ranging from bioimaging to solar energy conversion,
its uses in synthetic organic chemistry have not been extensively developed. Here, we present a short tutorial on the theoretical underpinnings and the design principles of TTA-UC systems. Selected applications are then discussed to highlight key features of the TTA mechanism, along with a
prospective discussion of the potential of these mechanisms to enable innovation in photocatalysis, methods development, and synthetic organic chemistry.
Fatally Female: A Study of the Treatment Of Women in True Crime Narratives
Authors: Washak Jessica
Published: August 2018

This thesis studies book-length literature from four cases of violent crime—the unsolved murder of Elizabeth Short in 1947, the prosecution of O.J. Simpson by Deputy Assistant District Attorney Marcia Clark, the shooting at Columbine High School by Harris and Klebold, and the trial of American exchange student Amanda Knox for the murder of her roommate in Italy in 2007–in order to analyze the way in which authors characterize the women and events involved in each case. Regardless of their positioning to the crime, the women who are close to these cases are repeatedly criticized by those chronicling their actions for failing to act in ways that preserve orthodox gender roles. To define the way in which gender is constructed and policed within society, the theoretical works of Laura Mulvey, Judith Butler, and Simone de Beauvoir are referenced. Analyzing the literature and theory surrounding each case reveals that true crime literature can suggest a code of conduct for women to follow by linking perceived deviant gender behavior to fatal outcomes and circumstances. Despite the horrible violence that each case contains, disapproval centers around women’s clothing choices, manner of speaking, and bodies.
Karamat Ali (ed). Pakistan: The Political Economy of Human Resource Development. Lahore/Karachi/Islamabad: Vanguard Books (Pvt.), 2001. 231 pages. Hardbound. Rs 595.00.
Authors: Zafar Mueen Nasir
Published: August 2018

Human resource development has assumed primary importance in the development process since the Industrial Revolution. Historical experience indicates that a major share of the wealth of nations is explained by investment in human capital [UNDP, Human Development Report (1996)]. Major developed countries invest billions of dollars in the development of human resources to raise their economic growth rates. The development of Japan is attributed entirely to the development of its human resources. Other Asian countries such as Singapore, Korea, Hong Kong, and Taiwan are also following in the footsteps of Japan in their pursuit of development.
Shahid Javed Burki. Changing Perceptions and Altered Realities: Emerging Economies in the 1990s. World Bank, 2000. 198 pages. Paperback. Price not given.
Authors: Ilhan Niaz
Published: August 2018

Shahid Javed Burki’s Changing Perceptions and Altered Realities: Emerging Economies in the 1990s is a collection of his essays and speeches on a variety of economic issues relevant to developing countries. These range from the trend towards open regionalism in the Latin American and Caribbean region (LAC) to the challenges of integrating into the global economy faced by small states. Three points in particular are of great help in understanding the nature of the problems faced by emerging economies over the past decade. First, there exist great differences within the developing world and, by extension, in the ranks of the poor. Second, the complexity of the situation demands that domestic institutions in developing countries be made stronger and more efficient. And third, market-based policies, though far from perfect, represent the best available set of solutions to the many problems faced by the developing world.
Trade Liberalisation Policies, Intra-regional Trade and Opportunities for Sustainable Agricultural Development
Authors: Zakir Hussain  , Riaz Hussain Qureshi
Published: August 2018

Many of the Near East (NE) countries are currently opening their agricultural markets at three distinct but interacting levels: unilateral liberalisation, regional integration schemes and multilateral trade liberalisation. These changes hold important implications for intra- and extra-regional trade, use of agricultural resources and sustainability of agricultural development in the NE countries. Unilaterally, and since the late 1980s, most countries of the region have liberalised their agriculture sectors by eliminating or reducing input subsidies, removing or reducing guaranteed producer prices, reducing the number of subsidised commodities and liberalising the exchange rate and the trade regime. Most of the implicit and explicit subsidies for agricultural inputs and outputs were withdrawn. However, some of the NE countries were able to continue supporting agriculture mainly for food security reasons. Experiences showed that domestic reform is necessary but not sufficient condition for economic growth.
Occupational Profile of Poverty in Pakistan
Authors: Rashida Haq
Published: August 2018

The issue of poverty in Pakistan has its significance for sustainable development. Long run development is not possible without protecting the rights of the vulnerable groups and the participation of the entire population in the development process. A notable development in the last decade in Pakistan’s economic scene has been the sharp pick up in the incidence of poverty. It can be attributed to several factor. The real GDP growth fell from 6 percent in the 1980s to 5 percent in the first half of the 1990s and declined further to just over 4 percent in the second half of the decade. The rate of inflation remained in single digits throughout the 1980s but had a rapid increase of 12 percent during the first half of the 1990s. It is significant to note that food prices generally rose more sharply than overall consumer price index. The unemployment rate increased by 2 percent in the 1990s as compared to in the 1980s reflecting the deceleration of labour absorption in the economy in response to the significant decrease in the economic growth during the nineties.
Economic Ideas of the Quaid-i-Azam
Authors: Sharif al Mujahid
Published: August 2018

The present paper consists of four parts. First, it is argued why the Quaid-i- Azam, Mohammad Ali Jinnah (1876-1948), concentrated for the most part on political issues and political freedom, why he went in for Islam as the cultural metaphor in arguing the case for Pakistan, and why he opted for couching his marathon (1937-47) discourse in Islamic terms. Second, the legacy in terms of the primacy of economic factors in propelling a colonised people towards political emancipation Jinnah had received from the historic realm and his own background— in particular, the economic bias in his family background, in Bombay’s mercantile culture which was almost at the centre of the most formative influences in his early life, and in the pronouncements of, and proposals mooted by, Muslim leaders from Sir Syed Ahmad Khan (1817-1898) down to Iqbal (1877-1938) on the one hand, and by the Mohammedan Educational Conference (f.1836) to the All India Muslim League (1906-47), on the other. These proposals were essentially aimed at exhorting the intelligentsia to work for the social, economic and political uplift of the masses. Third, the stress on economic emancipation and the rise of Muslim economic nationalism in the 1940s, in the wake of the Lahore Resolution (1940), has been discussed and delineated briefly.
Political Economy of Fiscal Reforms in the 1990s
Authors: Meahnaz Fatima  , Qazi Masood Ahmad
Published: August 2018

Throughout the decade of the 1990s, major emphasis in Pakistan remained on fiscal reform as a part of the reform programmes undertaken by the various governments of Pakistan. Fiscal reform assumes significance considering the high budget deficits that Pakistan has been experiencing. These have added to Pakistan’s total debt burden in general and external debt in particular. Increase in the burden of debt adds to debt-servicing expenditure which further feeds back into the issue of high fiscal deficit. Debt-servicing increased to almost 47 percent1 by the middle of the decade of 1990s and comprised 8.3 percent of the GDP, up from less than 1 percent mid-1960s. Pakistan’s external debt at over $32 billion2 in 1998 was 41 percent of its GNP which was amongst the highest in the South Asian region with India’s at 20 percent of GNP in the same year and Sri Lanka’s also at 41 percent3 of its GNP. In this paper, we attempt to explore the rationale behind the emphases on the improvement in both the deficit-to-GDP and the tax-to-GDP ratios that have remained the cornerstones of Pakistan’s fiscal reform effort in the decade of the 1990s. Section 2 is a discussion of the extent of successes and failures of the fiscal reform effort thus far and explores the relationship between tax generation and budget deficit. Section 3 discusses the impact of expenditures on budget deficit. Section 4 shows the rise in dependence on external sources of financing. Section 5 gives the conclusions.
Testing Semi-strong Form Efficiency of Stock Market
Authors: Salman Syed Ali  , Khalid Mustafa
Published: August 2018

The efficient market hypothesis suggests that stock markets are “informationally efficient”. That is, any new information relevant to the market is spontaneously reflected in the stock prices. A consequence of this hypothesis is that past prices cannot have any predictive power for future prices once the current prices have been used as an explanatory variable. In other words the change in future prices depends only on arrival of new information that was unpredictable today hence it is based on surprise information. Another consequence of this hypothesis is that arbitrage opportunities are wiped out instantaneously. Empirical tests of the efficient market hypothesis actually test for these consequences in various ways. Some of them have been summarised in earlier chapters. These tests generally could not conclusively accept the random-walk hypothesis of stock returns even when GARCH effects were accounted for. Many studies have found empirical regularities that are contrary to the efficient market hypothesis. For example, the monthly, weekly and daily returns on stocks tend to exhibit discernable patterns, such as seasonal affects, month of the year affect, day of the week affect, hourly affect etc. In case of Pakistan’s stock markets too such affects are identified. Such as the Ramadan affect [see Hussain and Uppal (1999)], seasonal effects and day of the week affect. Further, the wide spread use of “technical analysis” among stock traders and their ability to predict to some extent the direction of movements in the prices of individual stocks over medium term testifies to the existence of patterns and seasonal trends.
Debt Laffer Curve for South Asian Countries
Authors: Muhammad Aslam Chaudhary  , Sabahat Awar
Published: August 2018

The inflow of foreign capital is generally seen as an accelerating force to economic growth, due to provision of additional resources, and these funds are considered complementary to local savings. It could also help to transfer technology and, therefore, increase productivity. Besides it enhances purchasing power of the recipients [Mullick (1988)] and as a result stimulates growth. The purpose of foreign debt is to increase real transfer of resources from the developed countries to the developing countries, so that these countries could pick up momentum of economic growth and as a result improve their welfare.1 The rapid increase in the external debt obligations of the developing countries, during the 1970s, had given rise to concerns about the dangers of increasing trend in interest and amortisation payments and, therefore, this situation posed a threat to debtor countries. The foreign debt of the developing countries has become a threat to their economic growth. The debt servicing of some of the LDC’s exceeded to their growth rates.2 Initially, most analysts believed that debt servicing problem would be temporary. It was hoped that creditworthiness and more normal growth of most of the countries would be restored with the influx of foreign resources. However, the debt crises have demonstrated that this assessment was optimistic and seemed never to be realised.3
Reconstruction of Pakistan Economy— An Entrepreneur’s View Point
Authors: Yusuf H. Shirazi
Published: August 2018

Investment, production and export are sine quo non of a viable economy. Pakistan has, however, constantly suffered from its inability to achieve this viability— more recently arising out of the nuclear testing in May 1998, followed by the change of government in October 1999 and the 11th September 2001 disaster at the World Trade Centre in New York, which ultimately lead to the war in Afghanistan.
Digital Opportunity Initiative for Pakistan
Authors: Yousaf Haroon Mujjahid
Published: August 2018

“People lack many things: jobs, shelter, food, health care and drinkable water. Today, being cut off from basic telecommunications services is a hardship almost as acute as these other deprivations, and may indeed reduce the chances of finding remedies to them”.
Industry Risk Premia in Pakistan
Authors: Mohammad Nishat
Published: August 2018

Industry characteristics is one of the main factors that determines a firm’s business risk [Kale, Hakansson, and Platt (1991)], and a single information can affect more than one security price change, perhaps even the whole market. Lessard (1974, 1976) explains that industry plays an important role in explaining national market volatility. One of the reasons for stock index behaviour are attributed to industrial composition as some industries are internally more volatile than the other [Grinold, Rudd, and Stefek (1989)]. Moreover, some sectors show a high degree of global integration, for example, the finance sector [Roll (1992)]. Similarly, consumer goods, fuel and energy, and transportation sectors are extremely important for any country index. King (1966) suggests that if a significant difference in industry risk premia is observed, then we need to isolate the market risk premia and industry risk premia. He observed that the industry components of variance showed much less change from sub-period to sub-period. Significant differential impact of regulatory policy on cost of capital across various sectors was also observed [Isimbabi (1994); Prager (1989)].
An Analysis of Budget Deficits, Debt Accumulation, and Debt
Instability
Authors: Bilquees Faiz
Published: August 2018

In Pakistan all the macro indicators have been adversely
affected by the persistently high deficits and the strategy adopted to
finance them in the last two decades. The excessive domestic borrowing
at high rates to finance deficits without any attempts at domestic
resource mobilisation and controlling of the deficits over extended
periods absorbed all available domestic and external resources. The
resulting debttrap led to increased external borrowings at high rates
with short-term maturity. This, coupled with massive exchange rate
depreciation throughout the last two decades, resulted in rapid debt
accumulation. The recent fiscal space created in the wake of events of
9/11, resulting in high reserves, follows considerable debt relief and
availability of massive funds on very soft terms. However, the decline
in budget deficit continues to occur at the expense of development
expenditure, along with some increase in tax revenues. This trend in
expenditure needs to be reversed if serious progress in debt reduction
is the aim.
Stuart Gillespie and Lawrence J. Haddad. The Double Burden of
Malnutrition in Asia: Causes, Consequences, and Solutions. New Delhi:
Sage Publications, 2003. Paperback. Indian Rs 280.00. 235 pages.
Authors: Malik Afia
Published: August 2018

The culturally, politically, and economically diversified
regions in Asia are also different in terms of nutrition level. When
under-nutrition is overcome by overnutrition, it leads to the incidence
of diet-related diseases such as coronary heart disease, cancer,
diabetes, hypertension, and stroke, etc. Some parts in Asia are
undernourished and some are over-nourished, while a large number of
countries are facing both these problems simultaneously. There are also
instances of both under- and over-nourished people within the same
household. This is what the authors call the double burden of
malnutrition in Asia. This book deals with the magnitude, causes,
consequences, and solutions to the problem of malnutrition. It is an
excellent, comprehensive, and authoritative overview of the issues
related to the direct and indirect policy interventions; capacity
development, and resource allocation; and it is useful for the future
course of action aimed at defeating the menace of malnutrition in the
very diverse continent of Asia.
Barriers against Agricultural Exports from Pakistan: The Role of WTO Sanitary and Phytosanitary Agreement
Authors: Khalid Mustafa
Published: August 2018

There has been growing recognition that Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement can impede trade in agricultural and food products. Pakistan, in particular experiences problems in meeting the SPS requirements of developed countries and, it is claimed, this can seriously impede its ability to export agricultural and food products. Attempts have been made to reduce the trade distortive effects of SPS measures through, for example, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) SPS Agreement, although it is claimed that current initiatives fail to address many of the key problems experienced by Pakistan and other developing countries. The present paper explores implications of Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) agreement on exports of agricultural and food products from Pakistan. It identifies the problems that Pakistan faces in meeting SPS requirements and how these relate to the nature of SPS measures and the compliance resources available to Government of Pakistan and the supply chain. The paper examines the impact of SPS agreement on the extent to which SPS measures impede exports from Pakistan. It identifies the problems that limit participation of Pakistan in the SPS agreement and its concerns about the way in which it currently operates.
Impact of Privatisation on Employment and Output in Pakistan
Authors: Iram A. Khan
Published: August 2018

The paper aims to assess the impact of privatisation on employment and output in Pakistan. It uses edible oil and cement sectors as a case study in a pre- and post-privatisation comparative framework. Assessing the impact of privatisation in Pakistan is important at this juncture for two reasons. Firstly, the country is facing a severe economic crisis and privatisation forms an integral part of an array of reform measures recommended by multi-lateral donors as well as policy-makers within and without the country. Burki [(2000), p. 152] observes, “The economy and state of Pakistan are in crisis…. Pakistan has not faced a crisis of this magnitude in its entire 50-year history”. He refers to the five different crises that have combined to create this situation. These are: the global financial crisis, Pakistan’s short-term liquidity problem, economy’s structural weaknesses, severe social backwardness, and, finally, the crisis of governance. Burki (2000) suggests several solutions to the problems, and privatisation is one of the ways to restructure the economy and improve the quality of governance.
The Triad of Governance, Devolution, and National Prosperity
Authors: Syed Tanwir Husain Naqvi
Published: August 2018

I am privileged to have the opportunity to speak to this august audience of distinguished development economists very briefly, on what I have called the ‘Triad of Governance, Devolution and National Prosperity’. This, triad, I believe, lies at the heart of what constitutes the theme of this conference, namely ‘Institutional Change, Growth and Poverty’. The National Reconstruction Bureau which I was privileged to create and lead for all the three years of General Musharraf’s tenure as Chief Executive of Pakistan, was meant to transtate into reality the vision we crystallised for addressing the persistent failure of the institutions of state to provide solutions to the ever growing political, administrative, financial, judicial and social problems that the people of Pakistan faced since independence. The vision was ‘Reconstruction of the Institutions of State for Establishing Genuine and Sustainable Democracy to ensure Durable Good Governance for an Irreversible Transfer of Power to the People of Pakistan as soon as possible’. I will first give you a fleeting birds eye view of the wide spectrum over which our National Reconstruction endeavour in pursuit of this vision was spread. In the second part of this talk, which will contain the core of what I want to put across today, I will talk about financial devolution of the state. The third part of my talk will deal briefly with the burning issue of what we should do for turning our common citizens’ poverty into prosperity.
Motivational Factor of Development with Special Reference to Madar-e-Millat’s Role in Creating Countrywide Awakening among Women
Authors: Rafique Ahmad
Published: August 2018

The focus of this write-up is on three points. First: development is a multidimensional process involving major changes not only in socio-economic structures and institutions but also in popular attitudes and perceptions. Second: these changes, however anti-status quo, can be initiated, maintained, and speeded up if some powerful motivational factor comes into operation, as happened during the revolutionary Pakistan Movement. Third: the countrywide enthusiastic celebration of the year 2003 as Madar-e-Millat Year has proved to be one such motivational factor as it has brought about an unusual awakenance among Pakistan’s womenfolk to demand a rightful place in all walks of life. This is heartening especially because nearly half of the country’s population has terribly lagged behind in every conceivable sphere of development. This newly acquired awakenance can be and should be mobilised for speeding up the process of development by strengthening women’s participatory role in all political, economic, cultural, and even religious activities.
Fatima Jinnah’s Concern for Women’s Technical Education
Authors: Riaz Ahmad
Published: August 2018

Madar-i-Millat Mohtarma Fatima Jinnah is known for her contribution to the uplift of various segments of Pakistani society which is indicated through her speeches, statements, messages and addresses at different functions and institutions, delivered on various occasions. Her special concern was that women of Pakistan which formed 50 percent of the population should be moulded to play their role on various aspects of human life. An important aspect to which she felt attached, was the promotion of technical education in the country. Along with men, she desired women of Pakistan should equally contribute to the industrial development of Pakistan. This could be done by spreading technical education amongst the girls of Pakistan. For this purpose she delivered a number of speeches, addressed various institutions and established various industrial homes.
An Evaluation of Karachi Export Processing Zone: A Preliminary Investigation
Authors: Mohammad Hanif Akhtar
Published: August 2018

The literature on EPZs shows that these are a second-best solution compared with generalised countrywide reforms, but that, where countrywide reforms are difficult to implement, they can be a useful weapon in the development arsenal [World Bank (2001)]. EPZs have been instrumental not only in increasing exports but also attracting export-oriented foreign direct investment (FDI). China is a classic example to be mentioned here where the levels of FDI have gone up massively over the last ten years. Added up with exports increase are also the benefits of employment generation, development of backward and forward linkages and strengthening the industrial base. The phenomenon of export-processing zones (EPZs) is a part of broader context of structural changes in global economic development. During the last few decades, there has been a tremendous increase in exports of manufactured goods especially from developing countries. EPZs have emerged as an important channel of export generation, especially of manufactured goods, from most of the developing countries e.g. East Asia, Mexico, Morocco etc. Their significance cannot be undermined because of the location-specific advantages and infrastructure facilities possessed by them.
Capital Flows and Money Supply: The Degree of Sterilisation in Pakistan
Authors: Abdul Qayyum  , Muhammad Arshad khan
Published: August 2018

Under the current managed float exchange rate system; the central bank may respond to an exchange market disequilibria by changing either the international reserves or the exchange rates. Under such a regime, a major policy difficulty is the interaction between exchange rate policies and monetary policies. The monetary authorities intervene in the exchange market in response to undesired fluctuations in exchange rates,1 could adversely affect monetary control and move the economy away from internal target such as price stability. Under such a policy dilemma, fully sterilised intervention2 involves a pure swap of foreign and domestic assets, which have not effect on the money supply, received greater attention by the policy-makers in early 1980s, particularly, through the experience of West Germany [Obstfeld (1983)]. Ideally, it provides an independent policy tool to deal with the exchange rate without affecting the internal policy targets.
Elasticity and Buoyancy of the Tax System in Pakistan
Authors: Faiz Bilquees
Published: August 2018

This paper examines the elasticity and buoyancy of the tax system for the period 1974-75–2003-04. The elasticity of the total tax revenue both with respect to the total GDP and the non-agricultural GDP base is less than unity. Overall, sales tax takes the lead by way of improving revenues. The high coefficient of income tax inclusive of withholding tax, which is an indirect tax, is high. Excluding the withholding tax leads to a lower coefficient. Sales tax with respect to imports and manufacturing also takes care of loss of revenue due to lowering of tariff and excise duties. However, the sales tax coefficient with respect to the GDP base reflects the inclusion of service sector and utilities in the sales tax net, which has serious implications for the poor. The estimates of buoyancy suggest that tax changes did not lead to significant revenue augmentation. The low buoyancy of income tax exclusive of the withholding taxes implies that imposition of massive withholding taxes coupled with an increase in the taxable income limits is working at cross purposes.
Exports, Imports, and Economic Growth in South Asia: Evidence Using a Multivariate Time-series Framework
Authors: Musleh ud Din
Published: August 2018

This paper examines the export-led growth hypothesis for the five largest economies of the South Asian region using a multivariate time-series framework. The South Asian countries present an interesting case study in view of their increasing outward orientation and adoption of export promotion policies as part of their growth strategies. A key feature of the study is the explicit incorporation of imports in the analysis to make allowance for their role in the export-economic growth relationship. While controlling for imports, the results indicate bi-directional causality between exports and output growth in Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka in the short-run. The study finds long-run equilibrium relationships among exports, imports, and output for Bangladesh and Pakistan. However, for India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka, no evidence of a long-run relationship among the relevant variables is found. These results are in contrast to some earlier work that found the export-led growth hypothesis to be a long-run phenomenon for all countries in the region.
The State of Pakistan’s Dairy Sector: An Assessment
Authors: Abid A.Burki  , Mushtaq A Khan  , Faisal Bari
Published: August 2018

While there is a plethora of research documenting a multitude of dimensions of the crop sector of Pakistan, the virtual absence of meaningful economic analysis of the dairy economy is surprising. No serious attempt has been made in the past to clarify the microlevel potential of this sector to impact rural economy. This paper is a pioneering attempt to provide an objective assessment of the state of Pakistan’s dairy and to point out areas of further research. The paper analyses some core issues, highlights the potential of this sector, and recommends the measures to be adopted towards such a goal.
Estimating Shadow Wage Rates for Economic Project Appraisal
Authors: Iraj Saleh
Published: August 2018

One of the central concerns in cost benefit analysis is the adjustment of distortions in markets to provide a better guide to a more effective allocation of scarce resources. The objectives of this paper are to develop a model for the estimation of the shadow wage rate (SWR) for groups of occupations and to estimate the SWRs for the major groups of occupations in Australia. The main findings of the analysis indicate that estimated SWRs for major groups of occupations are different from the corresponding market wage rates, and that estimated SWRs of the groups are different. The results of the study demonstrate the importance of estimation of the SWR as a part of the appraisal process of investment projects. The ratio analysis indicates the significance of the difference between SWR and market wage rate, which is recommended to be adjusted is economic analysis of projects.
The Determinants of Capital Structure of Stock Exchange-listed Non-financial Firms in Pakistan
Authors: Attaullah Shah
Published: August 2018

Capital structure refers to the different options used by a firm in financing its assets. Generally, a firm can go for different levels/mixes of debts, equity, or other financial arrangements. It can combine bonds, TFCs, lease financing, bank loans or many other options with equity in an overall attempt to boost the market value of the firm. In their attempt to maximise the overall value, firms differ with respect to capital structures. This has given birth to different capital structure theories that attempt to explain the variation in capital structures of firms over time or across regions. On the other hand, empirical evidence is also not sometime consistent in substantiating a particular capital structure theory.
Exchange Rate Misalignment in Pakistan: Evidence from Purchasing Power Parity Theory
Authors: Abdul Qayyum  , Khair-u- zaman
Published: August 2018

Exchange rate provides a key link between the domestic and world markets for goods and assets. Therefore, a proper and detailed analysis of the behaviour of exchange rate is required. There is also growing agreement that prolonged and substantial exchange rate misalignment can create severe macroeconomic disequilibria and the correction of external balance will require both exchange rate devaluation and demand management policies. Thus the policy-makers have used PPP theory as a guide to represent the external competitiveness of a country, and as a benchmark against which floating exchange rates are judged to be misaligned. Developments in 1990s and 2000s show that cost associated with exchange rate misalignment is very high. Hence, the analysis of exchange rate determination in the presence of exchange rate misalignment is crucial for the policy purpose because of its role as a component of an early warning system [Berg, et al. (2000)].
Rolf J. Langhammer and Lúcio Vinhas de Souza (eds). Monetary
Policy and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America. Heidelberg:
Springer-Verlag. 2005. ix+254 pages. Hardback. Price not given.
Authors: Abbas Kalbe
Published: August 2018

Monetary Policy plays a crucial role in macroeconomic
stabilisation of a country. Latin American countries have faced
successive waves of economic instability causing hyper-inflation and
currency and financial crises leading to losses in output. This book is
a collection of papers presented at the conference on “Monetary Policy
and Macroeconomic Stabilization in Latin America”, held at the Kiel
Institute for World Economics (IFW), in Kiel, Germany, on September
11-12, 2003. Well-known speakers from major multilateral policy
institutions and the monetary authorities of Latin American economies
participated in this conference. Graphs and tables throughout the book
make for easy understanding of the main findings, as the book focuses on
the recent experience of Latin American economies with designing,
announcing, and implementing monetary policies with different internal
and external anchors. It deals with the exposure of real exogenous
shocks, high dollarisation, regulated and segmented labour market,
inappropriate policies and monetary institutions, and unrest from deep
financial and currency crises. The book draws lessons from European
monetary integration for Latin America, and examines the role of
financial integration to help reduce the systematic shocks in Latin
America.
Interaction between Population and Environmental Degradation
Authors: Mohsin Hasnain Ahmad
Published: August 2018

Economic development and population growth in the poor areas of the earth is a subject of an essential concern for the environmental economists. Developing countries are facing and suffering by the serious problem of high population growth which is causing environmental degradation. A rapidly growing population exerts pressure on agricultural land and raises demand for food and shelter which encourages the conversion of forest land for agricultural and residential uses, now we know that growing population is a major cause of air, water, and solid waste pollution. The world population was 2.52 billion in the year 1950, which increased to 6.06 billion in 2000 and is likely to reach 8.3 billion by the year 2030. While the population size will remain almost stationary in the economically developed part of the world, around 1.2 billion, during the same period population is likely to grow in the less developed regions. This is likely to pose challenges for the economic growth and pressure on environmental resources in the developing countries. Furthermore, most of the population growth in the developing countries is likely to be concentrated in the urban areas. This has implication for increased demand for energy and water resources in the urban areas. This will also pose challenges for the management of increased solid waste, air and water pollution. One of the striking experiences of the developing
Skill Development, Productivity, and Growth
Authors: Mian Tajammal Hussain
Published: August 2018

I am extremely grateful to Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad for giving me an opportunity to share my views on “Skill Development for Growth and Productivity”. Pakistan is currently experiencing an exciting period of economic and social change. The post-WTO regime and the global market dictate has exposed Pakistans’ economy to international competitiveness necessitating rapid technological changes in the industry. There is definite and recurring need to optimise human resources through Skill Development efforts for achieving high productivity culture for investments in the industrial, commercial, agriculture and services sectors. There is clear indication that low cost labour will no longer be significant advantage for any business which is not based on productivity charged and quality oriented workforce. Therefore, a growing realisation exists for the huge skill deficiency and the demand for competitive workforce with constant supply from educational, vocational/technical training institutions. These hard facts point towards urgent development of strong network between various stakeholders to achieve skill development for economic development. Indeed skill excellence and human resource development has been acknowledged as the major component of economic and social development that contributes in direct proportion to poverty alleviation and national prosperity.
Sustainable Cotton Production through Skill Development among Farmers: Evidence from Khairpur District of Sindh, Pakistan
Authors: Muhammad Azeem Khan  , Muhammad Iqbal
Published: August 2018

Pakistan is the world’s fourth largest producer and one of the major cottonexporting countries. Cotton is grown largely in Punjab and Sindh provinces and accounts for about 10.5 percent of the value-added in the agriculture sector. The majority of cotton growers are smallholders and a large number of them are tenant farm households. Frequent pest outbreaks since the early 1990s have induced pesticide-based farming in Pakistan. Also, the liberalisation of generic pesticide import has resulted in a many-fold increase in pesticide use in the country. However, this has neither increased cotton productivity nor the prosperity of the poor cotton growers [Poswal and Williamson (1998) and Ahmad and Poswal (2000)]. In Pakistan, research and development in Integrated Pest Management (IPM) was initiated in the 1970s. However, the efforts to implement IPM at the farm level were not very successful. Pesticides became a major instrument of production leading to a ‘pesticide treadmill’ situation [Irshad (2000)]. An analysis of pesticide policies through the UNDP-FAO Policy Reform Project paved the way for the establishment of a National IPM Programme and provided instruments to scale up farmer-led IPM through joint international and national efforts on various fronts. Pesticide policy studies estimated environmental and social cost of pesticides in Pakistan at US$ 206 million per year [UNDP (2001) and Azeem, et al. (2003)]. About 49 percent of these external costs were attributed to pest resistance problems, while 29 percent to loss in bio-diversity and nearly 20 percent occurred to human and animal health. On the other hand, damage prevention expenditures for residue monitoring and raising public awareness on the dangers of pesticides is less than 2 percent of the total social costs of pesticides.
Redistributive Impact of GST Tax Reform: Pakistan, 1990-2001
Authors: Saadia Refaqat
Published: August 2018

Pakistan has undergone a significant change in tax structure over the last fifteen years. However, this change is not apparent on the surface, as there has not been much change in the tax to GDP ratio over the last fifteen years. But if we look beyond the surface we can see changes, for example in (1990-91), indirect taxes contributed 82 percent of total tax revenue with Customs, Excise and Sales tax each contributing around 55, 28 and 18 percent respectively, while in (2001-02), indirect tax share within the total tax revenue fell slightly to 68 percent with Customs, Excises and Sales tax each now contributing around 18, 18 and 64 percent respectively. Thus, it may not be wrong to say that there has been a significant change in the tax mix in the span of less than ten years and this development is important from the perspective of efficiency, effectiveness and equity with which revenues have and will be raised. Although, Value Added Tax (VAT) is likely to be more efficient in raising revenue than both the ordinary Sales Tax and Trade Taxes that it has replaced see e.g. [Nellor (1987); Liam Ebrill (2001)], the same cannot be said as far as the fairness issue is concerned. This in no way implies that the trade taxes replaced by VAT were more fair. However in most developing countries they operate with strict import licensing schemes, binding quotas and foreign exchange restrictions that make them more a kin to lump sum tax. Therefore in most cases they have no flow through effect to the consumers [for example see Clarete (1986); Shah (1991)]. But in contrast to this VAT being a consumption tax has the capacity to directly affect each and every household. Thus equity becomes much more of a real concern and this concern is heightened given that governments of most of the developing countries lack the capacity to carry out significant redistribution.
Skill Development in Pakistan ( The Presidential Address)
Authors: A. R. Kemal
Published: August 2018

Human resource development particularly improved skills impact rather significantly economic growth and the productivity levels. Whereas research on productivity following Abramovitz (1956) and Solow (1957), seminal articles on sources of growth, highlighted the importance of human resource development,1 the endogenous theory of economic growth has brought human capital at the centre stage of the growth process [Romer (1990, 1993)].2 While the contribution of productivity towards growth rate of GDP in Pakistan has been one-third, the increase in total factor productivity has more to do with catching up than the improvement in human resource development, major source of sustained growth [see Kemal, Din, and Qadir ( 2002)].
S. Akbar Zaidi. Issues in Pakistan’s Economy. Second Edition Revised and Expanded. Karachi: Oxford University Press, 2005. xii+530 Pages. Paperback. Pak. Rs 595.00.
Authors: Kalbe Abbas
Published: August 2018

“Issues in Pakistan’s Economy” by S. Akbar Zaidi was first published in 1999. The book provided comprehensive information on different aspects of the economy in Pakistan since independence. The idea of writing this book originated from Oxford University Press as there was no book on the economy of Pakistan to benefit the graduate students, researchers, scholars, academicians, and the general public. The book was prescribed as a standard text book in the area of issues in Pakistan’s economy. It is also used as a standard book on the courses on South Asia’s development, economic history, and political economy of the region. The book became a best seller due to its subject matter. That is why a great need was felt to update the book that forced the author to expand, update, and revise the book and improve the shortcomings left in the previous edition. The Second edition includes a large amount of new research material. Also, the most recent available data have been included in the tables of the text throughout the book. Three new chapters have been added, some of the chapters have been reformulated, and the new arrivals in theory and empirical research have also been incorporated, accordingly. The book under review presents the important issues in the form of boxed text, appendices, chapter summaries, and provides suggested readings to further enhance the knowledge in specific areas. The efforts and the pains of the author in completing this book are highly laudable in producing such a valuable piece of research on economic development in Pakistan over the fifty-seven years to benefit the end users in completing their studies, research work, and policy-oriented assignments.
Foreign Currency Deposits and International Liquidity Shortages in Pakistan
Authors: Abbas Mirakhor
Published: August 2018

This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper studies the implications of foreign currency deposits (FCDs) for international liquidity shortages in Pakistan. The analysis focuses on how the large volume of FCDs and the specific institutional characteristics of those deposits have made the Pakistan economy highly vulnerable to exogenous shocks. The analysis shows that FCDs created another channel for government borrowing, and fiscal sustainability in a “closed” system may be very different from sustainability in a more “open” system. There is a need to think of these issues in terms of total balance sheet vulnerability, and we recommend measures that would make domestic-currency-denominated assets attractive to investors. JEL Classification Numbers: E52; F41 Keywords: Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Development, Dollarization
Inflation Everywhere is a Monetary Phenomenon: An Introductory Note
Authors: Nadeem Ul Haque
Published: August 2018

Ever since the 1970s, when inflation became a virtually global phenomenon, controlling inflation has become a high priority for policy-makers. Given the well-known costs of inflation, policy now in all countries is inflation-averse. Perhaps one of the more important adverse consequences of inflation may be that high and persistent inflation is a regressive tax1 which adversely impacts the poor.2 The poor are extremely limited in their options to protect themselves against inflation; they are normally asset-poor, while most of their saving is in the form of cash. Inflation erodes cash savings and protects the rich who hold real assets.3 It is not surprising that inflation may be politically costly for the government. Studies have also found that high and volatile inflation has been detrimental to growth and financial sector development. Resource allocation is inhibited as inflation obscures relative price changes and thus inhibits optimal resource allocation. For policy to control inflation, it is important to understand the factors that drive inflation. Unquestionably, empirical evidence points to “inflation being always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon” [Friedman (1963)]. However, there still remains some debate on whether supply-side factors could cause inflation without monetary accommodation.4 The structuralist school of thought holds that supply constraints that drive up prices of specific goods can have wider repercussions on the overall price level. Similarly, there are a number of possible sources of rising costs such as wages, profits, imported inflation-exchange rate, commodity prices, external shocks, exhaustion of natural resources, and taxes. For example, in Pakistan, increases in the wheat support price have frequently been blamed for increasing inflation.5 ........
Ahmed Galal and Nadeem Ul Haque (eds). Fiscal Sustainability in Emerging Markets: International Experience and Implications for Egypt. Cairo/ New York: The Egyptian Center for Economic Studies. 2006. ix+289 pages. Paperback. Price not given.
Authors: Kalbe Abbas
Published: August 2018

Fiscal sustainability is required to attain and maintain the long-run steady-state growth in emerging markets, to create fiscal space for rural and urban poverty, to safeguard financial stability, and to achieve the overall Millennium Development Goals. This can be done by providing financial support and by encouraging further research in this area. This book analyses the issues in the context of international experience and its implications for Egypt. It touches on issues of fiscal deficit and public debt sustainability, debt management, efficiency and equity of social expenditure, and public investment, the will and power to achieve civil service reform, and transparency and equitability of the budgetary process. It fills a gap in research.