Forecasting Future Hydrocarbon Discoveries Based on a Relationship Between Past Production and Reserves
Authors: van Eek W.H. 
Published: December 2007

This paper was prepared for the SPE-European Spring Meeting 1974 of the Society of Petroleum Engineers of AIME, held in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, May 29–30, 1974. Permission to copy is restricted to an abstract of not more than 300 words. Illustrations may not be copied. The abstract should contain conspicuous acknowledgment of where and by whom the paper is presented. Publication elsewhere after publication in the JOURNAL OF PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY or the SOCIETY OF publication in the JOURNAL OF PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY or the SOCIETY OF PETROLEUM ENGINEERS JOURNAL is usually granted upon request to the Editor PETROLEUM ENGINEERS JOURNAL is usually granted upon request to the Editor of the appropriate journal provided agreement to give proper credit is made.

Discussion of this paper is invited. Three copies of any discussion should be sent to the Netherland Section of the Society of Petroleum Engineers, P. O. Box 228, The Hague, the Netherlands. Such discussion may be presented at the above meeting and, with the paper, may be considered for publication in one of the two SPE magazines.

The "F-Q" method is developed to forecast the ultimately recoverable oil resources for a number of less mature or less well-known basins grouped together. This method is based on the assumption that as long as it is economically warranted, the oil industry will make a deliberate effort to replenish their reserves when lowered by production. The intensity of this deliberate effort needs to be defined by a new concept introduced as a "balanced, under- or overbalanced" exploratory effort in order to improve the forecast. The paper also introduces a novel parameter which expresses the ease or difficulty in exploring for hydrocarbon reserves in different areas. The "F-Q" method is applied to estimate the ultimately recoverable world oil reserves for accessible areas. This estimate is used as a yardstick to guestimate the ultimate cumulative amount of oil which may eventually be found and produced in the world. produced in the world

Introduction

In the last few years much attention was focused on the question whether in future years sufficient oil and gas will be discovered and produced to satisfy world demand. Excluding produced to satisfy world demand. Excluding long-term political and/or economical restrictions, reserves are so large that no world-wide shortages should be experienced in the seventies. Serious doubt, however, was expressed whether before the year 2000 the ever increasing consumption of oil and gas could still be met by the then remaining hydrocarbon resources. As the free world demand for energy is growing annually 4 to 5%, this concern becomes understandable. Especially, if one bears in mind that oil and gas presently supply approximately 60% of the energy market, and it is not at all certain whether other energy sources in the next 25 years can close a much dreaded "energy gap".

It is therefore important to predict as accurately as possible, how future energy requirements will be met by different sources of energy. The recent sharp and dramatic increases in crude oil prices makes one aware that a prognosis of the distribution of present and future hydrocarbon reserves over different parts of the world is required for such an analysis. Allowance should be made for increases in ultimate recovery of known accumulations by means of novel recovery techniques. Their future development is to be expected, especially if and when the world reserves commence to diminish, or even sooner, as a result of rising prices.