The CAPRA&PDE4D5/7/9 Prognostic Model Is Significantly Associated with Adverse Post-Surgical Pathology Outcomes
Authors: Gulliver Chloe , Huss Sebastian , Semjonow Axel , Baillie George S. , Hoffmann Ralf 
Published: January 2023

Objectives: To investigate the association of the prognostic risk score CAPRA&PDE4D5/7/9 as measured on pre-surgical diagnostic needle biopsy tissue with pathological outcomes after radical prostatectomies in a clinically low–intermediate-risk patient cohort. Patients and Methods: RNA was extracted from biopsy punches of diagnostic needle biopsies. The patient cohort comprises n = 151 patients; of those n = 84 had low–intermediate clinical risk based on the CAPRA score and DRE clinical stage <cT3. This cohort (n = 84) was investigated for pathology outcomes in this study. RT-qPCR was performed to determine PDE4D5, PDE4D7 and PDE4D9 transcript scores in the cohorts. The CAPRA score was inferred from the relevant clinical data (patient age, PSA, cT, biopsy Gleason, and percentage tumor positive biopsy cores). Logistic regression was used to combine the PDE4D5, PDE4D7 and PDE4D9 scores to build a PDE4D5/7/9_BCR regression model. The CAPRA&PDE4D5/7/9_BCR risk score used was same as previously published. Results: We investigated three post-surgical outcomes in this study: (i) Adverse Pathology (any ISUP pathological Gleason grade >2, or pathological pT stage > pT3a, or tumor penetrated prostate capsular status, or pN1 disease); (ii) any ISUP pathological Gleason >2; (iii) any ISUP pathological Gleason >1. In the n = 84 patients with low to intermediate clinical risk profiles, the clinical-genomics CAPRA&PDE4D5/7/9_BCR risk score was significantly lower in patients with favorable vs. unfavorable outcomes. In univariable logistic regression modeling the genomics PDE4D5/7/9_BCR as well as the clinical-genomics CAPRA&PDE4D5/7/9_BCR combination model were significantly associated with all three post-surgical pathology outcomes (p = 0.02, p = 0.0004, p = 0.04; and p = 0.01, p = 0.0002, p = 0.01, respectively). The clinically used PRIAS criteria for the selection of low-risk candidate patients for active surveillance (AS) were not significantly associated with any of the three tested post-operative pathology outcomes (p = 0.3, p = 0.1, p = 0.1, respectively). In multivariable analysis adjusted for the CAPRA score, the genomics PDE4D5/7/9_BCR risk score remained significant for the outcomes of adverse pathology (p = 0.04) and ISUP pathological Gleason >2 (p = 0.004). The negative predictive value of the CAPRA&PDE4D5/7/9_BCR risk score using the low-risk cut-off (0.1) for the three pathological endpoints was 82.0%, 100%, and 59.1%, respectively for a selected low-risk cohort of n = 22 patients (26.2% of the entire cohort) compared to 72.1%, 94.4%, and 55.6% for n = 18 low-risk patients (21.4% of the total cohort) selected based on the PRIAS inclusion criteria. Conclusion: In this study, we have shown that the previously reported clinical-genomics prostate cancer risk model CAPRA&PDE4D5/7/9_BCR which was developed to predict biological outcomes after surgery of primary prostate cancer is also significantly associated with post-surgical pathology outcomes. The risk score predicts adverse pathology independent of the clinical risk metrics. Compared to clinically used active surveillance inclusion criteria, the clinical-genomics CAPRA&PDE4D5/7/9_BCR risk model selects 22% (n = 8) more low-risk patients with higher negative predictive value to experience unfavorable post-operative pathology outcomes.