bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
EQUILIBRIUM GROWTH IN A MONETARY ECONOMY WITH TRANSACTIONS COSTS*
Authors: Marquis Milton H. , Reffett Kevin L.
Published: May 2007

The paper describes a dynamic general equilibrium monetary economy with technological primitives that are consistent with the possibility of asymptotic equilibrium growth. The paper focuses on the relationship between equilibrium financing constraints on investment goods, transaction costs and economic growth. A generalized growth condition is derived that involves both monetary growth rates and transaction costs. The condition is used to show that (i) although inflation taxes can potentially exert a negative influence on long‐run economic growth, these growth effects cannot in general be arbitrarily large; and (ii) for some monetary growth rates, money is superneutral in contrast to the models of Stockman and Abel. Numerical work indicates that although the welfare and growth effects of decreasing nominal interest rates from a benchmark are large, the costs associated with raising nominal interest rates from benchmark are not.
THE 1992 RESEARCH ASSESSMENT EXERCISE: OUTCOME, OUTPUTS AND INPUTS IN ECONOMICS AND ECONOMETRICS*
Authors: Taylor Jim , Izadi Hooshang
Published: May 2007

This paper presents the results of a statistical analysis of the University Funding Council's 1992 Research Assessment Exercise (RAE92), focusing here on the Economics and Econometrics Unit of Assessment. The data collected to support the RAE92 provide information about the inputs and outputs of the research process across all institutions of higher education in the UK. The paper has two primary aims: firstly, to provide information to the economics profession in order to aid self‐appraisal at the departmental level by providing quantitative data on research inputs and outputs relating to all 60 departments of economics assessed in the RAE92; and secondly, to investigate the extent to which variations between departments in their research ratings can be ‘explained’(in a statistical sense) by various quantitative research indicators constructed from the RAE92 database. The information suggests that research indicators constructed from the RAE92 database provide potentially valuable information about research activity in economics and econometrics in the UK.
COST FUNCTIONS AND COST EFFICIENCY IN ELECTRICITY DISTRIBUTION: A STOCHASTIC FRONTIER APPROACH*
Authors: Burns Philip , Weyman‐Jones Thomas G.
Published: May 2007

The paper develops a cost frontier model of electricity distribution and estimates it on data for the 12 regional electricity companies of England and Wales. It is found that some significant cost drivers in cross‐section estimation are insignificant when the model is estimated on panel data, highlighting the well‐known drawbacks of cross‐section estimation. Panel data estimation suggests that the main determinants of distribution operating costs are the number of customers in the area and simultaneous maximum demand. These results and the efficiency rankings of the companies are not sensitive to changes in error distribution assumptions and sample size. There is also significant evidence of economies of scale. There is a small but significant effect on cost efficiency from privatization, but this is as likely to be due to the changes in accounting policies at the time of privatization as any real effect.
CRIME, DETERRENCE AND UNEMPLOYMENT IN ENGLAND AND WALES: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS*
Authors: Reilly Barry , Witt Robert
Published: May 2007

This paper uses aggregate data from 42 police‐force areas over 12 years to test predictions of Becker's economic model of crime. The effects of measures for deterrence on the incidence of three types of acquisitive criminal activity (burglary, theft, robbery) in England and Wales are explored. Mixed support for the Becker model emerges. The growth in unemployment is seen to impact positively on two of the three types of criminal activity examined.Per capitahousehold income is seen to have a negative effect on the recorded rates of burglary and theft, but there is some evidence that the income variable is a proxy for the effects of unemployment. Poor housing conditions and the relative youth of the population were also found to play a role in the determination of criminal activity.
OUTPUT, PRODUCTIVITY AND WAGES IN THE BRITISH COAL INDUSTRY BEFORE 1914: A MODEL WITH EVIDENCE FROM THE DURHAM REGION*
Authors: Gernrnell Norman , Wardley Peter
Published: May 2007

This paper proposes a model of productivity and wages in the Durham coal industry during 1882–1914. The model predicts a negative relationship between wages and productivity which derives from the industrys production function and wage‐setting arrange‐ ments and does not require or imply a ‘leisure preference’ by miners. It is also suggested that predicted effects of some variables on productivity are different from those proposed by previous investigators. Using modern time‐series methods on data for output per worker and per shift, it is shown that the two measures essentially reflect predicted effects on output and productivity respectively.
BACKGROUND RISK AND THE THEORY OF THE COMPETITIVE FIRM UNDER UNCERTAINTY*
Authors: Wong Kit Pong
Published: May 2007

This paper examines the optimal production decision of a firm under output price risk á la Sandmo when the firm also faces a dependent background risk. It is shown that standard risk aversion plus a non‐negative association between the output price risk and the background risk are sufficient to ensure a reduction in the firms optimal output upon introduction of the background risk. The paper investigates the impact of a deterministic transformation of the background risk on the firms optimal production decision. It is shown that decreasing absolute risk aversion in Ross' sense is among the sufficient conditions that generate an unambiguous negative comparative static result.
EFFECTS OF A RATIONING RULE ON THE AUSUBEL AUCTION: A GENETIC ALGORITHM IMPLEMENTATION
Authors: Saez Yago , Quintana David , Isasi Pedro , Mochon Asuncion
Published: May 2007

The increasing use of auctions as a selling mechanism has led to a growing interest in the subject. Thus both auction theory and experimental examinations of these theories are being developed. A recent method used for carrying out examinations on auctions has been the design of computational simulations. The aim of this article is to develop a genetic algorithm to find automatically a bidder optimal strategy while the other players are always bidding sincerely. To this end a specific dynamic multiunit auction has been selected: the Ausubel auction, with private values, dropout information, and with several rationing rules implemented. The method provides the bidding strategy (defined as the action to be taken under different auction conditions) that maximizes the bidder's payoff. The algorithm is tested under several experimental environments that differ in the elasticity of their demand curves, number of bidders and quantity of lots auctioned. The results suggest that the approach leads to strategies that outperform sincere bidding when rationing is needed.
BIOLOGICAL BRAIN‐INSPIRED GENETIC COMPLEMENTARY LEARNING FOR STOCK MARKET AND BANK FAILURE PREDICTION1
Authors: Tan Tuan Zea , Quek Chai , Ng Geok See
Published: May 2007

Genetic complementary learning (GCL) is a biological brain‐inspired learning system based on human pattern recognition, and genes selection process. It is a confluence of the hippocampal complementary learning and the evolutionary genetic algorithm. With genetic algorithm providing the possibility of optimal solution, and complementary learning providing the efficient pattern recognition, GCL may offer superior performance. In contrast to other computational finance tools such as neural network and statistical methods, GCL provides greater interpretability and it does not rely on the assumption of the underlying data distribution. It is an evolving and autonomous system that avoids the time‐consuming process of manual rule construction or modeling. This is highly favorable especially in financial world where data is ever changing, and requires frequent update. The feasibility of GCL as stock market predictor, and bank failure early warning system is investigated. The experimental results show that GCL is a competent computational finance tools for stock market prediction and bank failure early warning system.
PREDICTING THE IMPACT OF ANTICIPATORY ACTION ON U.S. STOCK MARKET—AN EVENT STUDY USING ANFIS (A NEURAL FUZZY MODEL)
Authors: Cheng P. , Quek C. , Mah M.L.
Published: May 2007

In this study, the adaptive neural fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), a hybrid fuzzy neural network, is adopted to predict the actions of the investors (when and whether they buy or sell) in a stock market in anticipation of an event–changes in interest rate, announcement of its earnings by a major corporation in the industry, or the outcome of a political election for example. Generally, the model is relatively more successful in predicting when the investors take actions than what actions they take and the extent of their activities. The findings do demonstrate the learning and predicting potential of the ANFIS model in financial applications, but at the same time, suggest that some of the market behaviors are too complex to be predictable.
Research planning diagrams
Authors: Davies D. G. S.
Published: May 2007

A research planning diagram notation is introduced. It is based on computer programming flow charts and has a number of advantages over the conventional arrow diagram method. The notation lends itself to a straightforward quantitative analysis which yields probabilistic time and cost information in a form suitable for use in project planning, selection or control. Two current research programmes are examined as illustrations of RPD methods.
The management of Army R & D projects
Authors: Knutton H.
Published: May 2007

This study of the accuracy of cost and duration estimates for British defence R & D projects is based on an analysis of the records of 29 Army projects, initiated since 1960. The results are generally similar to American defence studies with which they are compared. The reasons for schedule slippages and cost escalations are examined and it is suggested that performance could be improved by more thorough project feasibility and definition studies and by a stronger project management organization.
The underestimation of project duration: an explanation in terms of a time‐horizon
Authors: Epton S. R.
Published: May 2007

The thesis of this note is that time is inherently underestimated because estimators are influenced by a time‐horizon which has no objective existence. The bias will increase with the complexity, unfamiliarity and uncertainty of the task. Implications of this are indicated, and its bearing on a study recently published in this journal is briefly touched upon. An independent test would probably require the methods of individual or social psychological research. The possibility of improving time‐estimation would exist if the time‐horizon to which individuals are subject could be ascertained.
The boundary relevance of the project manager's job: findings and implications for R & D management
Authors: Organ Dennis W. , Greene Charles N.
Published: May 2007

Much of the stress and conflict in the project manager's job can be attributed to the boundary nature of that position. This study explores the relevance of recent developments in organizational role theory for clarification and understanding of the project manager's job. Findings are reported from a study which show that traditional management thought is inadequate for understanding the factors which regulate the project manager's behavior. One must recognize the boundary relevance of the project manager's role in order to avoid organizational or administrative arrangements that would be undesirable for project management. Several implications, which logically follow from the theory and findings on boundary role behavior, are noted for their relevance for R & D management.
The financing of R & D in some socialist countries of Eastern Europe
Authors: Osers Jan
Published: May 2007

In the countries of Eastern Europe the financing of R & D represents a difficult problem in terms of economic scientific policy. In these countries it is not only a question of a simple apportionment of centrally‐held financial means to subordinate institutions, but also one of supporting promising fields of science, protecting long‐term and costly research programmes against risks and losses, and, above all, providing an incentive for R & D institutions to work out economically meaningful R & D results and translate them into economic practice. This last point is of particular importance in a system lacking a free market mechanism. A historical survey of the development of financing methods in the R & D field and of the numerous attempts to reform these methods will show the extent of the efforts made in Eastern Europe (whether successfully or not does not concern us here) to find an adequate solution to these problems.
Speculative chemical research—how many eggs in a basket?
Authors: Gittins J. C.
Published: May 2007

It is pointed out that the initial, speculative, phase of new product chemical research to a large extent consists of a search amongst a large number of formulations for potential new products. A probabilistic model of this process is described. The use of this model to suggest appropriate allocations of effort to individual projects, and a reasonable over‐all spread of risk, is discussed and illustrated.
Methodology for increasing the adoption of R & D project selection models
Authors: Souder W. E. , Maher P. M. , Shumway C. R. , Baker N. R. , Rubenstein A. H.
Published: May 2007

Although some studies and experiences have shown that R & D project selection models can be potentially useful decision aids, their adoption and routine use is not widespread. This lack of usage may be a consequence of the lack of attention which model builders have traditionally given to the prevailing adoption attitudes of R & D managers. A design methodology centering around the measurement of adoption attitudes has been developed and used by the authors. The methodology consists of procedures for analyzing the organizational climate relative to project selection model usage, developing an acceptable model form relative to the organizational climate, and inducing the adoption of this model form within the climate. Three case applications of the methodology are described in which negative‐to‐positive shifts in adoption attitudes occurred and project selection models were adopted for long‐term use. These results indicate that the use of this general methodology may lead to increased formal adoption and widespread usage of project selection model forms in R & D.
Budgets for research and development: an empirical study of 69 Swedish firms
Authors: Naslund B. , Sellstedt B.
Published: May 2007

Questionnaires were sent out to 124 large Swedish firms, asking how they determined budgets for research and development (R & D) and who decided about the size of these budgets. 94 firms answered and 69 of these undertook R & D.

It was found that, as a rule, firms decide upon individual projects and do not specify in advance a fixed level for the R & D budget. The decision about individual R & D projects and/or the R & D budget was most frequently made by the president of the company.

The implication of our results for various kinds of research on the economics of R & D are discussed.
Brainstorming: An examination of idea production rate and level of speculation in real managerial situations
Authors: Ickards T. R
Published: May 2007

The usefulness of brainstorming (Osborn type) as a management technique has been examined i n a series of exercises over the period 1972‐ 1974. In a considerable proportion of the exercises the material produced was interpreted as arising from low levels of speculation within the groups.

It is argued that the procedures of brainstorming will not automatically lead to highly speculative material, and that managers using brainstorming as a means of bringing about suspension of judgment may not achieve that result.

In real situations the intrusion of longer term belief systems may be influencing the group in the brainstorming process. Nevertheless, the principle of separating the idea generation and evaluation stages within managerial problem‐solving exercises can be constructively adapted into regular management practice.
Hazard and Operability Studies and their initial applications in R&D
Authors: KNOWLTON R. E.
Published: May 2007

Increasing technological complexity together with contemporary social and legal pressures have made it necessary to develop more effective approaches to safety. The need is particularly strong in the design and operation of chemical and pharmaceutical manufacturing facilities. An approach has been developed by one company operating in these fields and applied to its production facilities for a number of years. This paper describes the approach together with the recent extension of the method into the R & D area.
A study of the diffusion of management concepts and techniques amongst R & D managers
Authors: Twiss Brian C.
Published: May 2007

The management of R & D has been the focus of a great deal of research and writing during the past decade. It is, however, by no means certain that these have produced a significant effect amongst R & D decision makers. This paper describes a study of the extent to which R & D managers are aware of management concepts and techniques. The subjects were 57 senior R & D managers from British and Continental organizations who attended courses at the Management Centre, University of Bradford in 1974/5. The study was conducted by means of a questionnaire and a 100 question forced choice Quiz. The paper suggests that knowledge of modern management thinking has, to date, made only a limited penetration into R&D.
Idea‐generation for industrial firms—report on an international investigation
Authors: Schlicksupp H.
Published: May 2007

In Germany a general interest in creativity and methods of idea‐generation for industrial use arose in the late '60s, although initially knowledge was largely confined to catchwords; additionally insufficient experience hampered the appropriate diffusion of idea‐generation techniques. For these reasons the Battelle‐lnstitut e. V. at Frankfurt in 1971 initiated an extensive experimental research project in the field of creative idea‐generation in industry. The most essential results from the research can be summarized as follows:

1. Synopses of methods of idea‐generation in worldwide use enabled these methods to be grouped into six categories: Brainstorming methods (1), Brainwriting methods (2), Methods of creative orientation (3), Creative confrontation (4), Systematical structuring (5) and Systematical problem specification (6).

2. Investigations enabled the optimum conditions to be specified for applying Brainstorming, Brainwriting, Synectics and Morphological Analysis (which have to be considered as key methods) in respect to e. g. group size, group structure, leadership style.

3. Proposals were suggested for classifying problems into five different problem types (search, analysis, constellation, selection and consequence problems) together with recommendations on which problem type can be treated most efficiently with the available methods.

4. Recommendations were made on how the various methods of idea‐generation can be integrated into complex problem‐solving processes.

5. Original developments were reported of twelve alternative methods of idea‐generation by the Battelle research team, e.g. TILMAG (reported in this paper), Sequential Morphology, Visual Synectics and Hypotheses Matrix.

The investigations also led to the conclusions that further research was particularly needed in problem classification, processes of analysing problems, procedures of evaluating ideas, and different techniques for prompting ideas.
A correlation of R & D laboratory performance with critical functions analysis
Authors: Rhoades Richard G. , Roberts Edward B. , Fusfeld Alan R.
Published: May 2007

Five similar government R & D laboratories have been studied using ‘Critical Functions Analysis’ to determine the relative fractions of their staffs performing one or more of seven critical functions; a profile was developed for each laboratory. In order to test the hypothesis that variations in these critical functions profiles would be recognized by laboratory users, fifteen different customers of these laboratories—weapons system project managers and headquarters staff technology managere—were asked questions—designed to determine their perceptions of the relative performance of the five laboratories.

Significant variations were found in role profiles among the several laboratories: important variations were also identified in customers' perceptions about laboratory performance. In general, the three laboratories that had higher percentages of their professional staff performing the critical functions also were rated higher in performance by their customers. This difference was particularly striking when an aggregate performance parameter, which summed the numerical values of several performance‐sensitive customer questionnaire responses, was used. Customers were found to be especially sensitive to the strength of the laboratories' manufacturing/marketing gatekeeper functions.
A model of the cycle ‘Science‐Technology—Production’ and its application to the development of semiconductor physics and industry
Authors: Albrecht Edo , Kant Horst
Published: May 2007

The conscious, planned inclusion of science into the process of social reproduction is a very complex matter, requiring not only a theoretical understanding of the social role of science but also the mastery of adequate practical means of science planning and management. A model of the cycle ‘Science‐Technology‐Production’ is presented which explicates the link between basic science and economic production as the outcome of four phases, each of which is relatively isolated from the others. The history of the development of the transistor is analysed on this basis, and it is shown how the overall process has to be seen on a much longer timescale than popular descriptions would have it. The coupling between phases is of particular interest, and two critical points are identified: the transition from a general to a specific theory of certain phenomena, and that from the basic experimental solution to production‐technological development. The model demonstrates the inadequacy, for understanding and managing the overall cycle, of focusing solely on the technological solution.
Steady progress with Hazard and Operability Studies
Authors: Knowlton R. E.
Published: May 2007

The use of Hazard and Operability Studies is slowly spreading in the production areas of the chemical industry. Not only are applications more widespread within the originating company (ICI), but other companies both in the UK and in continental Europe, are starting to use this approach. The value of the technique in detecting operability problems as well as hazards is starting to be appreciated.

Applications in the R&D area are also developing along similar lines although well behind the production area and possibly still confined to ICI.

Various forms of training are becoming available and increasing interest is being shown by the regulatory authorities concerned with planning permission for chemical plants.
A study of coordination in three research settings
Authors: Cheng Joseph L. C.
Published: May 2007

The present paper reports findings from a study on coordination in three research settings—academic, cooperative‐government, and industrial—and discusses their implications for research management. The study ascertains the relationship between coordination and research effectiveness, and examines how coordination operates and is attained in research settings. Two hypotheses regarding the relationship between coordination, research effectiveness, and integration of research staff are advanced and tested on research groups in the three research settings mentioned above. The results support the hypotheses and indicate that the relationships occur very generally regardless of the setting in which the research is conducted. The findings are discussed in terms of their implications for research management and in particular the attainment of coordination in research settings.
On the calibration of continuous subjective probability distributions
Authors: Bunn D. W.
Published: May 2007

A simple procedure is presented for calibrating probability assessors who repetitively give continuous distributions rather than point probability estimates. The calibration function so derived can be used to display certain systematic bias features as well as for correcting future assessments. The need to perform calibration can often arise in single multistage inferential tasks as well as the repetitive estimation contexts and it is often necessary in both cases in order to avoid the covert dependencies which can arise between essentially independent variables because of systematic assessment bias on the part of the expert.
Knowledge work: its evaluation and reward
Authors: Ahmad Aqueil
Published: May 2007

Abstract. Much conflict arises in Indian research institutions as a consequence of unsatisfactory systems of evaluating and rewarding individual performance. The paper reviews existing systems critically and lays down guidelines for the development of an open consensus system designed to remove objections to current predominantly closed and secret practices. The basis for an evaluation proforma suitable for Indian conditions is put forward; this would include information on current achievement, future potential and personal characteristics with respect to each of the functions (research, teaching, consultancy, etc.) that a knowledge worker might perform. An example of how the various elements could be weighted and combined is also provided. The paper contains advice on the administration of the system to ensure the eventual emergence of a consensus. It concludes with a discussion of the factors to take into account and the problems likely to be met in translating the evaluation results into monetary and non‐monetary rewards, based on Maslow's hierarchy of needs.
Short product life cycles: implications for the marketing activities of small high‐technology companies*
Authors: Goldman Arieh
Published: May 2007

ABSTRACT Many high‐technology products are characterized by a “short” product life cycle (PLC)—a short life on the market, a steep decline stage and the lack of a maturity stage. The paper discusses the implications for marketing activities of this pattern in the case of small high‐technology companies. It is shown that the marketing of a short PLC product requires a high level of marketing, managerial ability and sophistication as well as an investment of a large amount of resources. It is pointed out that small high‐technology firms are faced with a particularly difficult situation in this case because they lack appropriate resources and marketing sophistication. An understanding of the short PLC problem will help the small companies to conduct a more realistic assessment of the magnitude of the marketing task they face in order to adequately prepare themselves or avoid a commitment to projects which are beyond their abilities.
Basic Motivation and Personality in R & D Management
Authors: Greig I. D.
Published: May 2007

ABSTRACT The hierarchy of needs and concept of basic motivation proposed by Maslow have been widely accepted for the understanding they provide of management. Recently, a concept of decision style based on Jungian personality types has also been found useful in explaining some aspects of management. In this paper the two concepts are taken together to provide a better understanding of the individual scientist and therefore of research management. This concept of the ‘whole person’ is used to explain a number of issues. Objective evaluation of proposal benefits is more likely to be advocated by the thinking personality type, and more likely to be accepted by scientists who have fewer security needs. Objective selection procedures appeal to thinking personality types, and the subjective approach is preferred by feeling types. The advantages of both approaches are appreciated by the more creative scientists and administrators. Early adopters of innovation appear to have many of the characteristics of Maslow's self‐actualising individuals. The matrix organisational structure is seen to require a degree of self‐actualising behaviour in its participants before it will succeed.
The structure and organization of Chinese industrial R&D activities
Authors: Fischer William A.
Published: May 2007

The paper is an account of the authors visit to the Peoples Republic of China in 1981. It shows how a highly centralised state deals with innovation, in this context innovation being equated with R&D. The first part of the paper deals with the way the responsibility for planning and execution of scientific and technical effort is distributed through the state and industry. The second looks at the manpower and organisational problems resulting from the economic backwardness of the country and past mistakes in trying to overcome it.
Peer assessment in industrial R&D departments
Authors: Domsch M. , Gerpott T. , Jochum E.
Published: May 2007

The paper reviews the current state of knowledge on peer assessment of performance with special reference to industrial R&D organisations. The authors define the term “peer” and discuss briefly various techniques for assessment (nomination, ranking and rating). The authors review the literature of peer review to show that it can add to the value of assessment and that certain obvious objections to peer rating apply also to supervisory review. Their conclusion is that peer review is a useful adjunct to appraisal, but only if it is completely acceptable to all involved. The conditions for achieving this acceptance are discussed. The paper concludes by showing how peer rating can be used for team development.
The lasting qualities of PERT: Preferences and perceptions of R&D project managers
Authors: Dougherty D. M. , Stephens D. B. , Ezell D. E.
Published: May 2007

This survey was conducted on the perceived popularity of PERT and PERT‐type management systems; whether PERT'S applications were static, increasing, or decreasing, and whether its use was by choice or imposition. The extent of applications of PERT for managing various types of research and development (R&D) was examined with the view to ascertaining its individual popularity when applied to (a) basic research, (b) applied research, or (c) development projects. In addition, an inquiry was made into the estimated expense of PERT systems to plan and control projects as a percentage of the budget. The results of the survey are presented and discussed relative to various sizes of R&D organizations.
The Strategy‐Performance Link in Product Innovation
Authors: Cooper Robert G.
Published: May 2007

The strategy a firm elects for its new product program is a critical element of the firm's corporate strategy. But little research has probed the performance results of firms' new product programs, and the strategy‐performance link. This article reports the results of an empirical study of 122 firms, whose purpose was to identify the levels of new product performance achieved, and the strategies leading to different types of performance. Eight different performance gauges yielded three independent dimensions of new product performance. A total of five different types or clusters of “performers” were identified. And the strategies and characteristics that the “top performers” shared are described.
Factors affecting the management of interdisciplinary research in the pharmaceutical industry
Authors: Loveday D. E. E.
Published: May 2007

The author uses the results of recent published behavioural research on team effectiveness as a framework to analyse the problems of managing R&D in pharmaceutical development. The research points to a large number of factors as having a potential impact on managing such R&D which is inescapably multi‐ or inter‐disciplinary in nature. Some such factors may originate outside the team, some within. External factors include organizational climate, R&D decision‐making environment, system maturity and organizational form (type of matrix); internal factors include span of responsibility of team members, disciplinary differentiation, task uncertainty, extent of fulfilment of Belbin roles and a significant requirement for flexibility of style on the part of the manager.

The author's conclusion is that achieving effective management of R&D teams in the pharmaceutical R&D environment requires attention to all these factors. The extent to which integration of different disciplines is achieved is symptomatic of the degree to which these factors are understood and attended to.
Corporate strategy and the buying and selling of know‐how
Authors: Wilkinson Alan
Published: May 2007

At this time, following a protracted period of recession, many companies have need to add to or change their technological base. For a company whose basic business is founded on a mature technology and unlikely to recover to its former level of activity, there is need to consider the transition process into a new area of development. For companies, on the other hand, whose businesses are inherently sound but now find themselves lagging behind technologically because of cut‐backs and economies in their R&D spend during the recession, some process of catching up may be necessary. In either case, internal development is a possibility but, it is argued, unlikely to be able to act fast enough or to be of sufficient magnitude to make even catching up possible. The acquisition of know‐how is an alternative course of action but one which companies can be loath to follow. These statements are supported by evidence on international comparisons of R&D expenditure, and on the national ratios of royalty payments and receipts in respect of know‐how. The circumstances under which companies should consider such acquisition, and the strategic considerations guiding which know‐how to purchase, are discussed.
Patterns of market research timing for new industrial products
Authors: More Roger A.
Published: May 2007

The importance of market research to new industrial product ventures has been widely noted, and some evidence has suggested that failure of managers to carry out effective research can increase the probability of new product failure. In planning for market research, a problem facing managers is when market research should be done during the new product development process. In this study, patterns of timing of market research resource expenditures in 112 industrial new product situations were measured, and differences in these patterns related to seven major situational characteristics, marketing task similarity, distribution complexity, competitive advantage, buyer risk, development complexity, project downsides and project payoffs.

Data analysis using MDA revealed significant differences between the patterns of research timing in different new product situations, and related these differences most strongly to marketing task similarity, competitive advantage, and buyer risk. The findings have important implications for managers involved in planning market research activities and resource allocations in new industrial product situations.
A short survey of expert systems in UK business
Authors: D'Agapayeff A.
Published: May 2007

The paper summarises the results of a survey on behalf of the Alvey Directorate, conducted in 1983—4, of the use made of expert systems in twelve large UK firms. The survey points clearly to the conclusion that firms do not need to start with large state‐of‐the‐art expert systems. A practical and useful entry point is provided by simpler systems, that is, those for which the knowledge base is clear cut, the expert is available and forthcoming, the knowledge is certain, the hypotheses definite and the ancillary data are valid. The author urges influential persons in an institution uncertain whether to use expert systems to make an exploratory entry and observe the results before making a final decision.

The author believes that in the longer term expert systems will have to be designed to interface with ‘popular’ business language databases and with other systems. He gives some guidelines to relevant developments.
The Alvey Programme—intelligent knowledge based systems aspects
Authors: Thomas D B
Published: May 2007

The paper describes the aims and activities of the UK Government‐financed programme on advanced information technology known as the Alvey Programme. Essentially, Alvey supports four areas from a total grant of 200 million spread over 5 years from 1983: software engineering, man‐machine interface, VLSI and intelligent knowledge‐based systems (IKBS). The whole is managed by the Alvey Directorate of which the author is a director.

On IKBS the Alvey strategy is to increase university/industry collaborative research, promote markets for IKBS products and increase the supply of skilled manpower. They are financing four large‐scale demonstrator projects: a speech‐input work station, design‐to‐product system, decision‐support system and mobile information systems. Each is being undertaken by a consortium of industry/academic interests. Among current smaller‐scale projects are flight simulators and fault diagnosis systems for the internal combustion engine and transmissions. Another important set of activities consists in strengthening the infra‐structure via standardisation of hardware, software and languages. The directorate also carries out general promotional and educational activities.
Bridging the generation gap: Expert systems as part of large scale computer systems
Authors: Archibald I. G. , Craig J. A. , Redfearn J. J.
Published: May 2007

Using expert system technology in industrial applications often involves the construction of programs of which the knowledge base is only a part and which have to be integrated into existing hardware and software environments. At Shell Research at Thornton it has been found that even within well explored areas such as fault diagnosis there is a need to incorporate non‐expert tools within a knowledge system in order to perform tasks such as database management, screen handling and substantial numerical calculation. This is not always easy. A system to determine diesel engine condition from an analysis of the used oil has been developed using the SAGE package and subsequently redeveloped in Prolog to over‐come such integration problems. An interesting side effect has been the discovery of the usefulness of Prolog in solving long standing problems concerning user access to complex relational databases.
Dimensions of innovative climate in Chinese R&D units
Authors: Fischer William A. , Farr Charles M.
Published: May 2007

This paper reports on the application of Rickards' and Bessant's ‘Creativity Audit’ in 141 research and development units in the People's Republic of China during 1982 and 1983. The objective of the paper is multifold: 1) to employ factor analysis in order to determine key dimensions of innovative climate and through these to be able to reduce the original instrument to a more convenient size; 2) to compare the concept of innovative climate between R&D performing units in a developing country, and an economy characterized by relatively strong central control, with the original British data; and 3) to utilize the dimensions of innovative climate to consider some hypotheses concerning the performance of R&D in developing countries and in China in particular.
Consequences of the shifts in U.S. Research and Development policy
Authors: Waks Norman
Published: May 2007

This paper is an edited version of a talk given in Copenhagen, Denmark on June 19, 1984 on a panel on public policy at the 26th international meeting of The Institute of Management Sciences (TIMS). The talk deals with the consequences of the recent marked shifts in the research and development policy of the U.S. government, as seen by the top federal science and technology administrator in three major areas: defence, aeronautics and space, and energy. Collectively they put the shifts into good perspective, see them in the main as being beneficial, and describe certain needed modifications to what in some respects have been evolving policies.
Mechanisms for improving the effectiveness of R&D: How many mechanisms are enough?
Authors: Szakonyi Robert
Published: May 2007

The author proposes and explains a method of rating the effectiveness of an R&D organisation without attempting to measure its output. He postulates that the basic reason that an R&D organisation does not do the right R&D or get it used effectively is that it is working in isolation. In other words the interfaces between R&D and the outside world are not being managed. To achieve effective interface management requires an organisational change. Hence the problem of increasing R&D effectiveness is transformed to a problem of developing strategies to bring about this change.

The author proposes a strategy which first requires the company to define objectives for interface management. The next question is to find out why the interfaces need to be managed; for the present business, for improving the people involved or for creating new opportunities for the future? This is a sequence of increasing refinement. Each phase of the R&D process is then looked at to determine the current state of interface management and take action to bring it to the next more refined stage. The author gives examples of what he means and discusses how his system can help the practising R&D director.
Indicators of technical intensity and international competitiveness: a case for supplementing quantitative data with qualitative studies in research*
Authors: Sciberras E.
Published: May 2007

The author provides evidence, derived from his own published research, to justify his claim that all the commonly used indicators of technical intensity of innovation suffer from severe limitations. The paper consists of a critique, as indicators of innovativeness, of increase of value‐to‐weight ratios of finished products, R&D expenditure, the number of QSEs employed, patent and licensing activity and the rate and direction of the flow of technology. He shows that technical change can increase value added‐to‐weight of a product but that differences in the ratio do not necessarily reflect different technical performance; that in‐house formal R&D is not the only way in which technical change is brought about in a firm; that one must know not only how many QSEs are employed by a firm but also how they are distributed over the firm's operations; that patent and licensing information need very skilled interpretation to produce valid conclusions and that outward flow of technology, though perhaps a necessary criterion of innovativeness is not a sufficient one.

The paper concludes with some suggestions for an alternative approach, the key to which is to combine quantitative data derived from the above indicators with qualitative in‐depth studies of how innovation actually occurs in the economic sector under study.
Creativity in Life Sciences Research
Authors: Lowe E. A. , Taylor W. G. K.
Published: May 2007

Studies in the literature on the performance of research scientists have examined a range of organisational factors but have often ignored personality characteristics. The present paper describes the preliminary work in examining personality using the Kirton Adaption‐Innovation theory (KAI). In the course of the work, interesting patterns were detected in the sub‐factors of which the KAI inventory is composed. This led to the idea of characterising researchers according to one of four types, as determined by the sub‐factors of KAI. The paper describes the characteristics of the four types according to their level of creative performance and skills performance and also their level of job satisfaction. It suggests that this characterisation may hold useful insights regarding the deployment of research scientists.
Managing Technology for Competitive Advantage in Inter‐industry Markets
Authors: Schill R. L.
Published: May 2007

The paper deals with the question of how a firm could develop a technological/R&D strategy to help it to maintain the initiative in its markets. The author extends Porter's analysis of competitive strategy to the R&D field and establishes the point that to remain profitable a firm must consciously manage its interfaces with its suppliers as well as its customers; it must take into account the threats and opportunities arising from such factors as the impact of existing competitors, new suppliers and competitors entering the scene and the possible appearance of substitutes for its products. A comprehensive corporate strategy would contain elements such as using technological change and R&D to raise the entry costs facing potential new rivals, inhibiting or anticipating the entry of substitutes, raising exit costs to customer and supplier by, for example, involving them in technological development.

The paper develops these possibilities in detail and concludes with a summarising checklist of practical options open to a firm to act on the conclusions the author draws from his analysis.
Modelling a Research Portfolio Using AHP: A Group Decision Process
Authors: Lockett Geoff , Hetherington Barrie , Yallup Peter , Stratford Mike , Cox Barry
Published: May 2007

The problem of choosing a research portfolio has been in the literature for many years. Suggested solutions have ranged from simple scoring models to complex mathematical resource allocation models, but the acceptance rate has been low. In this paper we present an application of a model based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process to a group decision situation. The results are encouraging, showing the positive nature of a model as a focal point in the process. They show that the interactive nature of the methodology encourages the development of subjective estimates and their subsequent discussion. An attempt to counter the problems of biasing has also been made. The methodology presented is seen to be easy to use and adaptable, and becomes an integrating mechanism for the group.
The dual ladder: motivational solution or managerial delusion?
Authors: Allen Thomas J. , Katz Ralph
Published: May 2007

The ‘Dual Ladder’ reward system has been used for years by industry as an incentive system to motivate technical performance. Its effectiveness has been called into question on many occasions. The paper will report the results of a survey of nearly 1,500 engineers and scientists in nine U.S. organizations. In this survey, engineers were asked to indicate their career preferences in terms of increasing managerial responsibility, technical ladder advancement or more interesting technical work. Responses indicate marked age‐dependent differences in response, particularly a strong increase in the proportion preferring more interesting project work over either form of advancement.

Conversations which one of the authors has had recently with managers of the thirteenth company question its status as an exception.