bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Home away from home — objective mapping of high‐risk source areas for plant introductions
Authors: Richardson David M. , Thuiller Wilfried
Published: February 2009

Prevention is the best way to slow the escalation of problems associated with biological invasions. Screening of potential introductions is widely applied for assessing the risk of species becoming invasive. Despite advances in the understanding of the determinants of invasiveness, screening still relies heavily on assessments of the potential of species to ‘fit in’ to the broad environmental conditions of a target region. Most screening systems ask whether species are native to, or are known to be naturalized or invasive in, regions with ‘similar’ climatic/environmental conditions to the target region. The level of similarity required to make the species a high‐risk introduction is generally not specified. This paper describes a protocol for making such assessments more objective, using South Africa as a test case.

Using nonparametric niche‐based modelling (generalized additive model; GAM) calibrated on the current distribution of each South African biome, we mapped regions of the world that are climatically similar to South African biomes. Lists were produced of countries with the largest areas climatically similar to South Africa overall, and to each biome separately. Validation of the usefulness of the approach was sought by evaluating whether the main invasive plant species in South African biomes occur naturally, or have adventive ranges, in regions mapped as analogous to South African biomes.

A very large part of the world is climatically similar to South Africa, with eight countries having larger areas of land classified as climatically similar to South African biomes than the total area of South Africa. Almost all the most prominent invasive species in South African biomes occur naturally or are invasive outside their natural range in areas with similar climates to those that occur in parts of South Africa. This confirms the value of objective climate matching in screening protocols.

We examined climatic conditions for a representative sample of major invasive plants from other parts of the world. The analysis identified several species that are already invasive in regions that have matched climates in South Africa but that are not yet introduced or, if already present, have not yet invaded large areas. For example, the following known invasive species should be considered high‐risk species in South African grasslands: Alliaria petiolata, Cytisus scoparius, Gleditsia triacanthos, Heracleum mantegazzianum, Hieracium pilosella, Juniperus communis, Pinus contorta, P. monticola, P. ponderosa, P. sylvestris, Prunus laurcerasus, and P. serotina. Objectively matched climatic regions are also useful as a first‐cut assessment when evaluating species with no invasive history.
An integrated framework to map animal distributions in large and remote regions
Authors: Travaini Alejandro , Bustamante Javier , Rodríguez Alejandro , Zapata Sonia , Procopio Diego , Pedrana Julieta , Martínez Peck Rolando
Published: February 2009

In this paper we show how new technologies can be incorporated from the gathering of field data on wildlife distribution to the final stage of producing distribution maps. We describe an integrated framework for conducting wildlife censuses to obtain data to build predictive models of species distribution that when integrated in a GIS will produce a distribution map. Field data can be obtained with greater accuracy and at lower costs using a combination of Global Positioning System, Personal Digital Assistant, and specific wildlife recording software. Sampling design benefits from previous knowledge of environmental variability that can be obtained from free remote sensing data. Environmental predictors derived from this remote sensing information alone, combined with automatic procedures for predictor selection and model fitting, can render cost‐effective predictive distribution models for wildlife. We show an example with guanaco distribution in the Patagonian steppes of Santa Cruz province, Argentina.
Predicting species distributions from museum and herbarium records using multiresponse models fitted with multivariate adaptive regression splines
Authors: Elith Jane , Leathwick John
Published: February 2009

Current circumstances — that the majority of species distribution records exist as presence‐only data (e.g. from museums and herbaria), and that there is an established need for predictions of species distributions — mean that scientists and conservation managers seek to develop robust methods for using these data. Such methods must, in particular, accommodate the difficulties caused by lack of reliable information about sites where species are absent. Here we test two approaches for overcoming these difficulties, analysing a range of data sets using the technique of multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). MARS is closely related to regression techniques such as generalized additive models (GAMs) that are commonly and successfully used in modelling species distributions, but has particular advantages in its analytical speed and the ease of transfer of analysis results to other computational environments such as a Geographic Information System. MARS also has the advantage that it can model multiple responses, meaning that it can combine information from a set of species to determine the dominant environmental drivers of variation in species composition. We use data from 226 species from six regions of the world, and demonstrate the use of MARS for distribution modelling using presence‐only data. We test whether (1) the type of data used to represent absence or background and (2) the signal from multiple species affect predictive performance, by evaluating predictions at completely independent sites where genuine presence–absence data were recorded. Models developed with absences inferred from the total set of presence‐only sites for a biological group, and using simultaneous analysis of multiple species to inform the choice of predictor variables, performed better than models in which species were analysed singly, or in which pseudo‐absences were drawn randomly from the study area. The methods are fast, relatively simple to understand, and useful for situations where data are limited. A tutorial is included.
Using generalized dissimilarity modelling to analyse and predict patterns of beta diversity in regional biodiversity assessment
Authors: Ferrier Simon , Manion Glenn , Elith Jane , Richardson Karen
Published: February 2009

Generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM) is a statistical technique for analysing and predicting spatial patterns of turnover in community composition (beta diversity) across large regions. The approach is an extension of matrix regression, designed specifically to accommodate two types of nonlinearity commonly encountered in large‐scaled ecological data sets: (1) the curvilinear relationship between increasing ecological distance, and observed compositional dissimilarity, between sites; and (2) the variation in the rate of compositional turnover at different positions along environmental gradients. GDM can be further adapted to accommodate special types of biological and environmental data including, for example, information on phylogenetic relationships between species and information on barriers to dispersal between geographical locations. The approach can be applied to a wide range of assessment activities including visualization of spatial patterns in community composition, constrained environmental classification, distributional modelling of species or community types, survey gap analysis, conservation assessment, and climate‐change impact assessment.
Non‐stationarity and local approaches to modelling the distributions of wildlife
Authors: Osborne Patrick E. , Foody Giles M. , Suárez‐Seoane Susana
Published: February 2009

Despite a growing interest in species distribution modelling, relatively little attention has been paid to spatial autocorrelation and non‐stationarity. Both spatial autocorrelation (the tendency for adjacent locations to be more similar than distant ones) and non‐stationarity (the variation in modelled relationships over space) are likely to be common properties of ecological systems. This paper focuses on non‐stationarity and uses two local techniques, geographically weighted regression (GWR) and varying coefficient modelling (VCM), to assess its impact on model predictions. We extend two published studies, one on the presence–absence of calandra larks in Spain and the other on bird species richness in Britain, to compare GWR and VCM with the more usual global generalized linear modelling (GLM) and generalized additive modelling (GAM). For the calandra lark data, GWR and VCM produced better‐fitting models than GLM or GAM. VCM in particular gave significantly reduced spatial autocorrelation in the model residuals. GWR showed that individual predictors became stationary at different spatial scales, indicating that distributions are influenced by ecological processes operating over multiple scales. VCM was able to predict occurrence accurately on independent data from the same geographical area as the training data but not beyond, whereas the GAM produced good results on all areas. Individual predictions from the local methods often differed substantially from the global models. For the species richness data, VCM and GWR produced far better predictions than ordinary regression. Our analyses suggest that modellers interpolating data to produce maps for practical actions (e.g. conservation) should consider local methods, whereas they should not be used for extrapolation to new areas. We argue that local methods are complementary to global methods, revealing details of habitat associations and data properties which global methods average out and miss.
Large‐scale plant conservation in European semi‐natural grasslands: a population genetic perspective
Authors: Picó F. Xavier , Van Groenendael Jan
Published: February 2009

During the last century, unprecedented landscape fragmentation has severely affected many plant species occurring in once widespread semi‐natural grasslands in Europe. Fragmentation reduces population size and increases isolation, which can jeopardize the persistence of populations. Recent large‐scale ecological and genetic studies across several European countries indicate that fragmented populations of common plant species exhibit a strong genetic differentiation and local adaptation to their home sites, reducing their capacity to establish new populations elsewhere. We discuss the main genetic processes that determine the performance of plant populations in severely fragmented landscapes: namely inbreeding depression, genetic differentiation and genetic introgression. We stress the need for large‐scale genetic studies to detect the geographical structure of genetic variation of fragmented plant populations, since nuclei of genetically independent groups of populations may become important targets of conservation. A thorough knowledge on the large‐scale geographical structure of genetic variation for a sufficiently wide array of plant species can provide the basis to develop comprehensive conservation plans to preserve the ecological and evolutionary processes that generate and maintain biodiversity of fragmented semi‐natural grasslands.
Contrasting fire‐related resilience of ecologically dominant ants in tropical savannas of northern Australia
Authors: Andersen Alan N. , Parr Catherine L. , Lowe Lyn M. , Müller Warren J.
Published: February 2009

This paper examines the role of fire in mediating the relative abundance of two of the world's major ecologically dominant ant genera, Iridomyrmex and Oecophylla, where they coexist across the tropical savanna landscapes of northern Australia. These taxa have contrasting biogeographical histories, which are predicted to lead to contrasting responses to fire. Iridomyrmex is an autochthonous Australian genus that has radiated primarily in the arid zone; as such, its abundance is predicted to be promoted by frequent fire because this maintains an open habitat. In contrast, Oecophylla is a genus of leaf‐nesting ants occurring in the canopies of Old World tropical rainforest, and is a recent arrival to Australia in geological time; the abundance of these ants is predicted to decline under frequent fire. We test these predictions using results from a landscape‐scale fire experiment, where three experimental fire regimes (including no fire) were applied to replicated subcatchments over a 5‐year period. Using sweep nets, ants were sampled in the grass layer (the habitat layer of greatest overlap between Iridomyrmex and Oecophylla) in eucalypt woodland (canopy cover < 30%) and open eucalypt forest (canopy cover about 50%) habitats. A total of 27 species from 11 genera were collected during the study; eight were common enough for statistical analysis, and the abundances of four of these were significantly affected by fire treatment. As predicted, the abundance of Iridomyrmex was promoted by fire, whereas that of Oecophylla declined. These changes occurred only under late‐season (relatively high intensity) fires, and for Oecophylla occurred only in open forest (not woodland) habitat. This fire‐mediated relationship between Iridomyrmex and Oecophylla mirrors the much broader, ecosystem‐wide dynamic between eucalypt‐dominated savanna and rainforest in tropical Australia, with savannas dominated by fire‐resistant sclerophyll elements of Australian origin, and rainforest dominated by fire‐sensitive mesophyll elements of South‐East Asian origin.
Inferring historical introduction pathways with mitochondrial DNA: the case of introduced Argentine ants (Linepithema humile) into New Zealand
Authors: Corin Steve E. , Lester Phillip J. , Abbott Kirsti L. , Ritchie Peter A.
Published: February 2009

The threat imposed by invasive species and difficulties associated with control and management places more impetus on trying to prevent their introduction. The identification of introduction pathways is a vital component towards this goal. In this study, we use a genetic marker‐based approach to retrospectively investigate the pathway of origin of the invasive Argentine ant (Linepithema humile) into New Zealand. We intensively sample the mitochondrial gene cytochrome b, from the entire known range of Argentine ants in New Zealand. No genetic variation was found in New Zealand. In order to identify likely introduction pathways, we use two alternative genetic analyses and suggest that a tcs approach that collapses identical haplotypes and calculates the probability of parsimony is superior to standard phylogenetic tree‐building algorithms. A minimum spanning network allowed relationships to be examined among sequences collated from previous international studies. The cytochrome b sequence, when compared to a global database, matched that from an Australian population. That Australia is the potential source of Argentine ants is in agreement with the New Zealand interception record, as goods from Australia have the highest number of interception records of Argentine ants. Our approach can easily be duplicated for other organisms and the methodology can be more widely applied to help aid further efforts to identify the routes of transmission for other invasive species and allow us to efficiently direct our biosecurity monitoring effort.
Patterns of non‐randomness in the exotic avifauna of Florida
Authors: Blackburn Tim M. , Cassey Phillip
Published: February 2009

It is now generally recognized that human‐mediated biological invasion is a multistage process, successively comprising transport, introduction, establishment, and spread, and that a complete understanding of the causes of invasion requires studies of all stages. However, while many studies address the characteristics that influence establishment, relatively few address the characteristics that influence whether or not a species transits the earlier stages of transport and introduction. Here, we use data on the rich exotic avifauna of Florida to assess non‐randomness in the identities of species that have passed through the transport and introduction stages. Bird species transported and introduced to Florida are non‐random with respect to their taxonomic affiliations, body mass, native geographical range size, and region of origin: introductions are more likely for widespread, large‐bodied species from the Neotropics and belonging to the Anatidae, Psittacidae, Ciconiidae, and Passeridae. Data on the identities of species that have attempted to breed but failed, and on the breeding population size for most established species, also allowed us to assess the extent to which the same variables influenced various aspects of post‐introduction establishment. Only native geographical range size and latitudinal range mid‐point distinguish between these different classes of exotic species. Geographical range size is the most general correlate of different classes of invaders in our analyses.
A century of the ornamental plant trade and its impact on invasion success
Authors: Dehnen‐Schmutz Katharina , Touza Julia , Perrings Charles , Williamson Mark
Published: February 2009

We identify a significant relationship between domestic market‐based propagule pressure, as measured both in presence in the British horticultural market and in seed prices of ornamental plant species, with success in invasion. We employ a multispecies temporal approach and use a Generalized Estimation Equation model comparing ornamental non‐native species introduced into Britain which started to invade with species introduced but not known outside cultivation. Historical nursery catalogues gave information on the availability and prices of seeds of 506 ornamental species in the British horticultural market every 20 years from 1885 to 1985. Higher market frequency and cheap prices of seeds were more significant and had a greater impact on the invading probability 20 years later than at the date of listing in a nursery catalogue. Our results suggest that national economic factors are an important part of the explanation for the invasiveness of ornamental plant species, and hence for the development of potential solutions.
Algal communities in human‐impacted stream ecosystems suffer beta‐diversity decline
Authors: Passy Sophia I. , Blanchet F. Guillaume
Published: February 2009

Human‐mediated geomorphic degradation of streams and rivers is a serious environmental problem with negative effects on aquatic biota and social infrastructure. Billions of dollars are spent for stream restoration in the USA alone, but it is still unknown how algal diversity is affected by these efforts. In this investigation, we studied a geomorphically stable and heterogeneous reach and two degraded and homogeneous reaches of Batavia Kill, a highland stream in New York, USA. Spatial surveys of algae and geomorphic conditions were conducted in all three reaches for 2 years. After the first year of study, one of the two unstable reaches was subjected to a large‐scale streambed restoration. Species–area relationships (SAR) were examined for the first time in local algal communities of stream periphyton. Alpha‐ and gamma‐diversity, which represent the species richness at a sample and reach level, respectively, and cell density, were also explored. In all reaches, SAR were fitted with semi‐log models, which revealed that the rate of increase of species richness with area, i.e. algal beta‐diversity, was significantly higher in the geomorphically stable reach than in the two degraded reaches. Gamma‐diversity followed the same trend, whereas alpha‐diversity and cell density were significantly higher in the unstable reaches. Restoration significantly increased the heterogeneity of conditions, including depth and particle size. From all studied community descriptors, restoration had a benign influence on algal beta‐ and gamma‐diversity; however, beta‐diversity remained the highest in the stable reference reach and this difference was significant. Our results provide guidelines for the use of periphytic algae in future bioassessments of stream bank restoration. Community properties such as species richness and organismal density, which are common metrics of ecosystem health, may be inappropriate in stream restoration surveys; instead diversity measures, often overlooked in applied ecology, e.g. beta‐diversity, should be given full consideration.
A global gap analysis of infectious agents in wild primates
Authors: Hopkins Mariah E. , Nunn Charles L.
Published: February 2009

A number of infectious diseases have emerged as threats to humans and wildlife. Despite the growing importance of georeferenced data for mitigating disease risk, information on parasite threat is patchily distributed at a global scale. In this paper, we explore the utility of gap analysis techniques to investigate the global geographical distribution of parasite sampling in non‐human primates. Specifically, we identify geographical areas that are undersampled for parasites in relation to primate geographical distributions, primate taxonomic sampling, primate threat status, and parasite taxonomy. Our results reveal that East Asia (particularly China), South‐East Asia, and the South American Amazon are the most deficient in sampling effort with respect to all criteria. We also identify sampling gaps based on several criteria in West and Central Africa. Future research aimed at filling these gaps is needed for both human health and primate conservation purposes.
Classification, diversity, and distribution of Chilean Asteraceae: implications for biogeography and conservation
Authors: Moreira‐Muñoz Andrés , Muñoz‐Schick Mélica
Published: February 2009

This paper provides a synopsis of the Chilean Asteraceae genera according to the most recent classification. Asteraceae is the richest family within the native Chilean flora, with a total of 121 genera and c. 863 species, currently classified in 18 tribes. The genera are distributed along the whole latitudinal gradient in Chile, with a centre of richness at 33°–34° S. Almost one‐third of the genera show small to medium‐small ranges of distribution, while two‐thirds have medium‐large to large latitudinal ranges of distribution. Of the 115 mainland genera, 46% have their main distribution in the central Mediterranean zone between 27°–37° S. Also of the mainland genera, 53% occupy both coastal and Andean environments, while 33% can be considered as strictly Andean and 20% as strictly coastal genera. The biogeographical analysis of relationships allows the distinction of several floristic elements and generalized tracks: the most marked floristic element is the Neotropical, followed by the antitropical and the endemic element. The biogeographical analysis provides important insights into the origin and evolution of the Chilean Asteraceae flora. The presence of many localized and endemic taxa has direct conservation implications.
Genetic relationships between native and introduced populations of the little fire ant Wasmannia auropunctata
Authors: Mikheyev Alexander S. , Mueller Ulrich G.
Published: February 2009

Native to much of Central and South America, the little fire ant Wasmannia auropunctata has been rapidly spreading throughout the world. In its introduced range, W. auropunctata is frequently linked with drastic reductions of ant diversity; anecdotal reports of damaging attacks on vertebrates are also common. As it poses an ever‐increasing threat to biodiversity, W. auropunctata has emerged as a model system for the study of ecological differences between native and invasive ant populations. These studies have been hampered by a lack of information on the genetic relatedness between native and introduced populations. By investigating the genetic structure of W. auropunctata populations, we provide a framework for conducting phylogenetically independent tests of differences between these ants in their native and invasive ranges. Phylogenetic analyses, based on the cox1/cox2 region of mtDNA, revealed at least three separate source populations of W. auropunctata distributed across two large clades. Much of the Caribbean region, presumably part of the native range, is inhabited by a clade of ants sharing very similar or identical mtDNA haplotypes, suggesting the possibility of multiple introductions or high levels of gene flow across that area. Most invasive populations in the Pacific were closely related to these ants. The invasive populations in Gabon and New Caledonia arise from another, relatively distantly related clade. Phylogenetically independent contrasts confirm McGlynn's (1999) observation that invasive W. auropunctata populations are smaller than native populations. Given the complex phylogeographical structure of W. auropunctata populations, future comparative work should correct for phylogenetic effects.
Predicting mountain plant richness and rarity from space using satellite‐derived vegetation indices
Authors: Levin Noam , Shmida Avi , Levanoni Oded , Tamari Hagit , Kark Salit
Published: February 2009

Can species richness and rarity be predicted from space? If satellite‐derived vegetation indices can provide us with accurate predictions of richness and rarity in an area, they can serve as an excellent tool in diversity and conservation research, especially in inaccessible areas. The increasing availability of high‐resolution satellite images is enabling us to study this question more carefully. We sampled plant richness and rarity in 34 quadrats (1000 m2) along an elevation gradient between 300 and 2200 m focusing on Mount Hermon as a case study. We then used 10 Landsat, Aster, and QuickBird satellite images ranging over several seasons, going up to very high resolutions, to examine the relationship between plant richness, rarity, and vegetation indices calculated from the images. We used the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), one of the most commonly used vegetation indexes, which is strongly correlated to primary production both globally and locally (in more seasonal and in drier and/or colder environments that have wide ranges of NDVI values). All images showed a positive significant correlation between NDVI and both plant species richness and percentage tree cover (with R2 as high as 0.87 between NDVI and total plant richness and 0.89 for annual plant richness). The high resolution images enabled us to examine spatial heterogeneity in NDVI within our quadrats. Plant richness was significantly correlated with the standard deviation of NDVI values (but not with their coefficient of variation) within quadrats and between images. Contrary to richness, relative range size rarity was negatively correlated with NDVI in all images, this result being significant in most cases. Thus, given that they are validated by fieldwork, satellite‐derived indices can shed light on richness and even rarity patterns in mountains, many of which are important biodiversity centres.
Newts under siege: range expansion of Triturus pygmaeus isolates populations of its sister species
Authors: Themudo G. Espregueira , Arntzen J. W.
Published: February 2009

The newt species Triturus marmoratus and Triturus pygmaeus are both present in central Portugal where they have parapatric distributions. We used four genetic markers to determine which species was present in 31 populations. In the centre of the study area we found a T. marmoratus enclave. Despite small interpopulation distances, hybridization is locally rare. We built several models to try to explain this distribution using environmental data. The best model, chosen by Akaike's Information Criterion, relates the presence of T. marmoratus with the temperature in July, the relief of the landscape, and a higher use of the land for orchards. The current distribution can best be explained by T. pygmaeus expanding north and replacing T. marmoratus, the latter only persisting where ecological conditions are relatively favourable.
Invasive exotic aoudad (Ammotragus lervia) as a major threat to native Iberian ibex (Capra pyrenaica): a habitat suitability model approach
Authors: Acevedo Pelayo , Cassinello Jorge , Hortal Joaquín , Gortázar Christian
Published: February 2009

The introduction of alien species to new environments is one of the main threats to the conservation of biodiversity. One particularly problematic example is that of wild ungulates which are increasingly being established in regions outside their natural distribution range due to human hunting interests. Unfortunately, we know little of the effects these large herbivores may have on the host ecosystems. This study deals with a first comparative analysis of the habitat requirements of two ungulate species that may be facing competition for resources in the south of Europe: the native Iberian ibex (Capra pyrenaica) and the exotic aoudad (Ammotragus lervia). The aoudad is a North African caprid introduced in 1970 as a game species in south‐eastern Spain. It has adapted well, and populations have been freely expanding since then. Ecological Niche Factor Analysis is used to describe the realized niche of both species where their distribution ranges merge. Both species occupy marginal areas of rugged terrain in the region. Marginality is higher for the Iberian ibex, which also presents a higher tolerance of secondary environmental gradients than the aoudad. Highly suitable areas for each species are secondarily suitable for the other. Reclassified and cross‐tabulated habitat suitability maps showing the areas of potential spatial coexistence and differences in ecological traits between both species are provided. The results obtained do not allow inferring resource competition between these species. However, current aoudad expansion could result in it invading the favoured habitats of the ibex. Inadequate hunting policy and monitoring, and increasing climatic resemblance of the study region to the native aoudad areas, due to a strong desertification process, are facilitating a high rate of expansion. We strongly recommend to eradicate or, at least, monitor these exotic populations, and promote active conservation practices, if one wants to preserve the unique natural resources present in this European region.
Developing products for conservation decision‐making: lessons from a spatial biodiversity assessment for South Africa
Authors: Reyers B. , Rouget M. , Jonas Z. , Cowling R. M. , Driver A. , Maze K. , Desmet P.
Published: February 2009

South Africa's first national assessment of spatial priorities for biodiversity conservation, released in 2005, aimed to identify conservation priority areas for mainstreaming into all sectors at national and provincial scales. This National Spatial Biodiversity Assessment (NSBA) was based on a planning for implementation approach in order to deliver defensible products useful to decision‐makers. The NSBA aimed to produce a map of broad‐scale priority areas for future finer‐scale assessment and conservation action. This map summarized information on species, ecosystems, ecological processes, and the pressures they face from human activities. Owing to the complexity of the priority area map, two additional user‐friendly products — maps of ecosystem status and protection levels — were developed. These products represented the habitat loss and protected area coverage of South Africa's ecosystems relative to their conservation targets. A year after release, we reflect on the NSBA process, products and uptake by implementing agencies (with a specific focus on the terrestrial biodiversity assessment) in order to contribute to the growing body of documented best practice in conservation planning. The ecosystem status product has been widely used at national and provincial scales due in large to its clear and compelling message. The protection level and overall priority map have also witnessed uptake, the former in guiding the expansion of protected areas and the latter as an integrated map of national biodiversity status. The strong collaboration of local planners and implementers with in‐depth experience of biodiversity assessment, using a systematic approach and focusing on communicating a few high level messages, appears to have contributed to the initial, successful uptake of the NSBA. We conclude with a call to address data and monitoring shortcomings before the next NSBA in 2010.
An index to compare geographical distributions of species
Authors: Erni Birgit , Altwegg Res , Underhill Les G.
Published: February 2009

We present an index for the dissimilarity/distance between geographical distributions based on reporting rates recorded on a regular lattice. Reporting rate data are common, for example, in bird atlas projects where observers fill in check lists of encountered species in a particular area. Our index is a variation of the Euclidean distance, with the contribution of each grid cell weighted by the number of checklists collected for the grid cell, and a scaling factor to ensure that the dissimilarity ranges between zero and one. Reporting rates were transformed to ordered percentile classes to make species with different mean reporting rates comparable. The index was developed for the comparison of distributions of The Atlas of Southern African Birds. We illustrate the dissimilarity index comparing distributions of whydahs and indigobirds (widowfinches), which are specialized brood parasites, to the distributions of their hosts: waxbills and other finches.
How does the knowledge about the spatial distribution of Iberian dung beetle species accumulate over time?
Authors: Lobo Jorge M. , Baselga Andrés , Hortal Joaquín , Jiménez‐Valverde Alberto , Gómez Jose F.
Published: February 2009

Different distribution maps can be obtained for the same species if localities where species are present are mapped at different times. We analysed the accumulation of information over time for a group of dung beetle species in the Iberian Peninsula. To do this, we used all available information about the distribution of the group as well as data on selected species to examine if the process of discovery of species distribution has occurred in a climatically or spatially structured fashion. Our results show the existence of a well‐defined pattern of temporal growth in distributional information; due to this, the date of capture of each specimen can be explained by the environmental and spatial variables associated to the collection sites. We hypothesize that such temporal biases could be the rule rather than the exception in most distributional data. These biases could affect the weighting of environmental factors that influence species distributions, as well as the accuracy of predictive distribution models. Systematic surveys should be a priority for the description of species geographical ranges in order to make robust predictions about the consequences of habitat and climate change for their persistence and conservation.
Regional patterns of recruitment success and failure in two endemic California oaks
Authors: Zavaleta Erika S. , Hulvey Kristin B. , Fulfrost Brian
Published: February 2009

Oak woodlands and savannas are key defining landscapes in the California Floristic Province, making up almost a quarter of the region's forests and woodlands. Two endemic Californian oak species, valley oak (Quercus lobata Neé) and blue oak (Quercus douglasii Hook. & Arn.), are widely considered at risk of decline from persistent recruitment failures in the last century. However, decades of research have produced no definitive conclusion about the existence, extent, or causes of this ‘regeneration problem’. Underlying causes of perceived recruitment failure are unclear and could include drivers at distribution‐wide to local scales including climate and atmospheric changes, habitat fragmentation, altered herbivore populations, changing fire regimes, exotic plant and animal invasions, livestock grazing, and soil conditions altered by past land uses. We performed meta‐analyses of existing stand‐scale data from the published and grey literatures on seedling and sapling recruitment in blue and valley oaks throughout each of their distributions. We sought to evaluate whether distribution‐wide regeneration ‘problems’ exist for either species and to assess what factors correlate with distribution‐wide recruitment patterns. Nearly 80% of sites surveyed for blue oaks but fewer than 50% of sites surveyed for valley oaks contained some evidence of seedling or sapling recruitment. A majority of sites surveyed for both species appear to have insufficient recruitment to replace adult populations, though further demographic work would be required to quantify minimum replacement recruitment rates. Reserve sites were seven times more likely than non‐reserve sites to contain valley oak populations with evidence of recruitment. Blue oak recruitment patterns were weakly related to climate and geographical factors and strongly variable at subregional scales. We suggest several lines of additional research that could fill gaps in the existing literature and clarify the patterns emerging from this analysis.
Will hotspots conserve extra primate and carnivore evolutionary history?
Authors: Spathelf Miles , Waite T. A.
Published: February 2009

Setting aside biodiversity hotspots would be especially compelling if they contained not just enormous numbers of species but also excessive evolutionary history. A recent study seemed to provide evidence for this incentive for hotspot conservation.Sechrestet al. (2002) reported that hotspots contain more endemic phylogenetic diversity (PD) than expected based on the numbers of primate and carnivore species they contain. We extend their analysis and revise some of their claims. For primates and threatened carnivores, we show that the original analysis was driven by a single hotspot (Madagascar) that contains an ancient endemic clade. The remaining hotspots harbour less rather than significantly more endemic PD than expected. Thus, while one hotspot contains an enormous excess of evolutionary history, the remaining hotspots do not. Our analysis reveals that the overriding influence of a single hotspot can create the misleading impression that hotspots generally contain excessive evolutionary history. Justification for the hotspot initiative should be based on robust evidence. We join others in endorsing an increased role for detailed phylogenetic analysis in conservation planning.
Land use changes affect distributional patterns of desert birds in the Baja California peninsula, Mexico
Authors: Rodríguez‐Estrella Ricardo
Published: February 2009

Reliable plans for desert bird conservation will depend on accurate prediction of habitat change effects on their distribution and abundance patterns. Predictive models can help highlight relationships between human‐related and other environmental variables and the presence of desert bird species. Presence/absence of 30 desert bird species of Baja California peninsula was modelled on the basis of explanatory variables taken from the field, maps, and digital imagery. Generalized linear models were fit to each bird species using both variables representing human activity and other environmental factors as predictors that might influence distribution. Probability of species presence was used as a habitat suitability index to evaluate the effect of human activity when the model contained a significant human activity variable. No differences were found in bird species richness between natural sites and those transformed by agriculture or urbanization. Of 59 bird species recorded in surveys, 34% were positively or negatively associated with human‐transformed habitats. Fourteen species seem to benefit from transformation of natural vegetation by agriculture or urbanization, while six were negatively affected. Sensitivity analyses of final models indicated all were robust. Results suggest that the occurrence of a large percentage of bird species inhabiting scrub habitats is sensitive to human habitat transformation. This finding has important conservation implications at regional scale as fragmentation and conversion of desert ecosystems into agricultural and urban areas affect the distribution of species that are highly selective for scrub habitat. Land use and anthropogenic activities seem to change ecological patterns at large spatial scales, but other factors could drive species richness distribution too (i.e. individual species response, species–energy relationships). The spatial modelling approach at regional scale used in this study can be useful for designing natural resource management plans in the Sonoran desert scrub.
Regional assessment of the impact of climatic change on the distribution of a tropical conifer in the lowlands of South America
Authors: Ledru Marie‐Pierre , Salatino Maria Luisa Ferraz , Ceccantini Gregorio , Salatino Antonio , Pinheiro Fabio , Pintaud Jean‐Christophe
Published: February 2009

For decades, palynologists working in tropical South America are using the genus Podocarpus as a climate indicator although without referring to any modern data concerning its distribution and limiting factors. With the aim to characterize the modern and past distribution of the southern conifer Podocarpus in Brazil and to obtain new information on the distribution of the Atlantic rainforest during the Quaternary, we examined herbarium data to locate the populations of three Brazilian endemic Podocarpus species: P. sellowii, P. lambertii, and P. brasiliensis, and extracted DNA from fresh leaves from 26 populations. Our conclusions are drawn in the light of the combination of these three disciplines: botany, palynology, and genetics. We find that the modern distribution of endemic Podocarpus populations shows that they are widely dispersed in eastern Brazil, from north to south and reveals that the expansion of Podocarpus recorded in single Amazonian pollen records may have come from either western or eastern populations. Genetic analysis enabled us to delimit regional expansion: between 5° and 15° S grouping northern and central populations of P. sellowii expanded c. 16,000 years ago; between 15° and 23° S populations of either P. lambertii or sellowii expanded at different times since at least the last glaciation; and between 23° and 30° S, P. lambertii appeared during the recent expansion of the Araucaria forest. The combination of botany, pollen, and molecular analysis proved to be a rapid tool for inferring distribution borders for sparse populations and their regional evolution within tropical ecosystems. Today the refugia of rainforest communities we identified are crucial hotspots to allow the Atlantic forest to survive under unfavourable climatic conditions and, as such, offer the only possible opportunity for this type of forest to expand in the event of a future climate change.
A changing climate is eroding the geographical range of the Namib Desert tree Aloe through population declines and dispersal lags
Authors: Foden Wendy , Midgley Guy F. , Hughes Greg , Bond William J. , Thuiller Wilfried , Hoffman M. Timm , Kaleme Prince , Underhill Les G. , Rebelo Anthony , Hannah Lee
Published: February 2009

While poleward species migration in response to recent climatic warming is widely documented, few studies have examined entire range responses of broadly distributed sessile organisms, including changes on both the trailing (equatorward) and the leading (poleward) range edges. From a detailed population census throughout the entire geographical range of Aloe dichotoma Masson, a long‐lived Namib Desert tree, together with data from repeat photographs, we present strong evidence that a developing range shift in this species is a ‘fingerprint’ of anthropogenic climate change. This is explained at a high level of statistical significance by population level impacts of observed regional warming and resulting water balance constraints. Generalized linear models suggest that greater mortalities and population declines in equatorward populations are virtually certainly the result, due to anthropogenic climate change, of the progressive exceedance of critical climate thresholds that are relatively closer to the species’ tolerance limits in equatorward sites. Equatorward population declines are also broadly consistent with bioclimatically modelled projections under anticipated anthropogenic climate change but, as yet, there is no evidence of poleward range expansion into the area predicted to become suitable in future, despite good evidence for positive population growth trends in poleward populations. This study is among the first to show a marked lag between trailing edge population extinction and leading edge range expansion in a species experiencing anthropogenic climate change impacts, a pattern likely to apply to most sessile and poorly dispersed organisms. This provides support for conservative assumptions of species’ migration rates when modelling climate change impacts for such species. Aloe dichotoma's response to climate change suggests that desert ecosystems may be more sensitive to climate change than previously suspected.
The chytrid fungusBatrachochytrium dendrobatidisis non‐randomly distributed across amphibian breeding habitats
Authors: Kriger Kerry M. , Hero Jean‐Marc
Published: February 2009

The chytrid fungusBatrachochytrium dendrobatidishas been implicated as the causative agent of mass mortalities, population declines, and the extinctions of stream‐breeding amphibian species worldwide. While the factors that limit the distribution and abundance ofB. dendrobatidisacross large geographical regions are fairly well understood, little is known about the distribution of the fungus within localized areas such as individual catchments. The accurate identification of amphibian populations likely to be exposed to the fungus is urgently required for effective disease management. We conducted disease surveys of frogs representing five ecological guilds in south‐east Queensland, Australia, and hypothesized that ifB. dendrobatidiswere responsible for the disappearance of stream‐breeding amphibian populations, infection prevalence and intensity would be greatest in frogs breeding in permanent, flowing water. Overall, 30.3% of the 519 frogs we sampled were infected withB. dendrobatidis. However, infections were not evenly distributed across the ecological guilds, being almost completely restricted to frogs breeding at permanent waterbodies. Of these, stream breeders were significantly more likely to be infected than were pond breeders, though the intensity of frogs’ infections did not differ significantly between the two guilds.Batrachochytrium dendrobatidiswas detected on only one of the 117 frogs that were found at ephemeral ponds, ephemeral streams, or terrestrial sites. These findings provide strong support for the hypothesis thatB. dendrobatidiswas responsible for many of the unexplained disappearances of stream‐breeding amphibian populations in recent decades, and will enable wildlife managers to more accurately focus conservation efforts on those species at highest risk of disease‐related decline.