Data-Driven models for groundwater level forecasting and improvement of waterresource management: example of the Foot-hill aquifer system in the Brenta riverplain (Veneto, Italy)
Authors: Franceschi Linda , Menichini Matia , Raco Brunella , Doveri Marco 
Published: February 2023

&#160;In most regions worldwide, the groundwater usage is increasingly common due to the progressive decreasingof the effective availability of surface water for both quantity regime and quality issues, as a consequence ofglobal population increasing, global climate change and growing water pollution. Therefore, groundwater isthe most important and safest source for water supply being less affected by pollution and climate changes.For example, in European Union countries, groundwater provides nearly 70% of the piped water supply and80% of the drinking water. However, the overexploitation of groundwater may sometimes exceed rechargeover long periods and over extensive areas and the subsequent decline in water table level may affect naturalgroundwater discharge and quality, which in turn may have harmful impacts on groundwater dependentstreams, wetlands and ecosystems. For these reasons a correct management of the groundwater resourcesis of paramount importance. In this scenario, groundwater modelling, both conceptual and numerical, isparticularly crucial for the sustainable and efficient management of groundwater resources, even more inthe context of expected climate change.The middle-high Brenta river plain (NW of Veneto, Italy) is characterized by the existence of an importantunconfined to semi-confined foothill aquifer system, that is made of a very thick single-layer of gravellypebbly alluvial deposits, in the northernmost part, whereas in the southern part the aquifer becomes amultilayer composed of gravelly deposits and levels of silt and clay. The existence of an important aquifersystem is tied to the high annual rainfall amount, about 1200 - 1500 mm/year, however the maingroundwater recharge component of the aquifer is related to the water dispersion from the Brenta river.Groundwater hosted in the aquifer represents an important resource for drinkable supply, industrial andagricultural usages. However, over the last decades, the exploitation of groundwater resource and themeteo-climate regime caused a decrement of the piezometric level alerting the local authorities. Thanks tothe existence of a consistent and continuous monitoring network made up of several meteoric, hydrometricand piezometric stations, very long time-series of data are available. The availability of a long time-seriesallowed to develop Data-Driven models, specifically Multiple Linear Regression Models, of the Brenta riverhydrometric level (using rainfall, snowfall and atmospheric temperature as independent variables) and of thepiezometric level of groundwater in the middle-high plain (using atmospheric temperature, the local rainfalland the model of Brenta river as independent variables). The regression models were used to makepredictions on the development of the hydrometric level of Brenta river and consequently of thegroundwater level under extreme weather and climate conditions as those of the last years, thus providinguseful information for steering the best water management practices in a zone where strategic groundwaterexploitation systems are located.