bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Second‐Best Linkages and the Gains from Global Reform of Manufactures Trade
Authors: Hertel Thomas W. , Martin Will
Published: March 2003

The Uruguay Round’s built‐in agenda for future WTO negotiations omitted further liberalization in manufactures, yet this paper shows that there are large potential gains to be had from such tariff cuts, especially in the developing countries. In order to fully estimate the benefits of adding industrial products to a future multilateral trade round, we need to take into account the levels of protection in other sectors—most notably agriculture and services—in which many trade flows are highly distorted. This paper examines the nature of the second‐best linkages among sectors using a balance‐of‐trade function approach. The importance of these linkages is evaluated using a numerical general equilibrium model. It is found that, in most cases, the second‐best spillovers do not greatly affect the results, implying that the estimated gains from manufacturing reforms will be largely independent of their sequencing. However, in a few regions, most notably the EU, the second‐best effects play a significant role.
International Provision of Trade Services, Trade, and Fragmentation
Authors: Deardorff Alan V.
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the special role that trade liberalization in service industries can play in stimulating not only trade in services but also in goods. International trade in goods requires inputs from several services industries (trade services, such as transportation, insurance, and finance) in order to complete and facilitate international transactions. Restriction on the ability of national service providers to provide these services across borders and within foreign countries creates additional costs and barriers to international trade above those that would arise in otherwise comparable intranational exchange. As a result, trade liberalization in services can yield benefits, by facilitating trade in goods, that are larger than one might expect from analysis of the services trade alone. This paper explores this idea using simple theoretical models to specify the relationships between services trade and goods trade. The paper also notes the role of services trade in a model of international industrial fragmentation, where production processes can be separated across locations but at some cost in terms of additional service inputs. The incentives for such fragmentation can be larger across countries than within countries, owing to the greater differences in factor prices and technologies available. However, the service costs of international fragmentation can also be larger, especially if regulations and restrictions impede the international provision of services. As a result, trade liberalization in services can also stimulate fragmentation of production of both goods and services, thus increasing international trade and the gains from trade even further.
Robert A. Mundell: A Profile
Authors: Connolly Michael B.
Published: March 2003

This essay is a short introduction to the work of Robert A. Mundell, winner of the Nobel Prize for Economics in 1999. It is a contribution to a special issue of Review of International Economics.
Discipline, Signaling, and Currency Boards
Authors: Oliva Maria‐Angels , Rivera‐Batiz Luis A. , Sy Amadou N. R.
Published: March 2003

The paper models the choice between currency boards (CBs) and adjustable pegs (or managed floating). Countries adopting CBs have grown faster and inflated less on average than countries adopting other regimes. The explanation hinges on key features of CBs: policy discipline and inflation credibility. The authors find separating equilibria in which a weak government chooses a CB as a discipline device while a tough government chooses a standard peg for its policy flexibility. Paradoxically, the weak government can then outperform the tough government on average. In simulations performed, CBs welfare can exceed peg welfare even when unemployment persistence is strong.
Dynamic Effects in Senegal of the Regional Trade Agreement Among UEMOA Countries
Authors: Dissou Yazid
Published: March 2003

In an international setting characterized by a proliferation of regional trade agreements, seven countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) have created a customs union. The reform raises concerns in some countries, like Senegal, where government is dependent on tariff revenues. The author builds an intertemporal general equilibrium model to analyze the dynamic effects of the reform. Simulation results highlight the desirability for Senegal to pursue regional economic integration along with an outward‐looking strategy. The reform is welfare‐improving and expansionary with some sectoral diversity. In the long run, government and foreign debts increase.
The Tariff‐Jumping Argument and Location Theory
Authors: Hwang Hong , Mai Chao‐cheng
Published: March 2003

When examining the tariff‐jumping effect, the literature emphasizes the cost‐induced effect, which states that a foreign firm has an incentive to jump over the tariff wall in order to locate in a foreign territory, and thereby escape tariffs. The authors set up a location model to show what they refer to as the location‐induced effect on tariff‐jumping. This location‐induced effect, together with the traditional cost‐induced effect, makes tariff‐jumping more (less) likely to take place when the production function in question exhibits decreasing (increasing) returns to scale.
Agricultural Land Conversion and Inheritence Tax in Japan
Authors: Adachi Motohiro , Patel Kanak
Published: March 2003

In this paper we investigate theoretically the extent to which the development timing of agricultural land conversion would be hastened by the introduction of inheritence tax. We extend the optimal timing of wealth maximizing value use models by Scouras (1978), Anderson (1993) and Kanemoto (1996) to examine cases where tax rates vary according to land use with (i) almost no income and (ii) high income use, such as rental housing. We first model landowner’s behavior within the life cycle dynamic optimization framework and then simulate the impact of inheritence tax on the optimal timing of development. Some notable predictions about optimal timing of development emerge from our numerical analysis: no inheritence tax effect is observed for landowners whose inheritence probability is less than 1% (that is, landowners in the age group 40 or below) and whose inheritence tax rate is less than 10%. However, the optimal timing of development drops to below one year for landowners whose inheritence probability is more than 18% and whose tax rate is 30%.
Deprivation and Incidence of Urban Public Services: A Tale of Three Cities
Authors: Gangopadhyay Partha , Nath Shyam
Published: March 2003

We approach the problem of deprivation and incidence of urban public services by quantifying the extent of deprivation of different income groups in relation to both desired and minimum levels. Three types of deprivation are clearly established. First, deprivation in both Bombay and Calcutta is higher than that of Delhi. Second, there is a serious concern for primary health and education because it is established that the lack of these local services is the major source of deprivation among urban settlers. Finally, we report how well different income classes are served in these cities: the rich are worst‐off in Calcutta and best‐off in Bombay. Middle income and poor citizens are best‐off and worst‐off in Delhi and Bombay, respectively.
House Prices and Housing Investment in Sweden and the UK: Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970–1998
Authors: Barot Bharat , Yang Zan
Published: March 2003

We estimate quarterly dynamic housing demand and investment supply models for Sweden and the UK for the sample period 1970–1998, using an Error Correction Method (ECM). To facilitate comparisons of results between Sweden and the UK we model both countries identically with approximately almost the similar type of exogenous variables. The long–run income elasticities for Sweden and the UK are constrained to be 1.0, respectively. The long–run semi–elasticity for interest rates are 2.1 and 0.9 for Sweden and the UK. The speed of adjustment on the demand side is 0.12 and 0.23, while on the supply side it is 0.06 and 0.48 for Sweden and the UK, respectively. Granger causality tests indicate that income Granger causes house prices for Sweden, while for the UK there is also feedback from house prices to income. House prices Granger cause financial wealth for Sweden, while for the UK it is vice–versa. House prices cause household debt for Sweden, while for the UK there is a feedback from debt. Interest rates Granger cause house prices for the UK and Sweden. In both countries Tobin’s q Granger cause housing investment. Generally, the diagnostic tests indicate that the model specifications were satisfactory to the unknown data generating process.
The Real Questions are Theological
Authors: Graham Elaine
Published: March 2003

Book reviewed in this article:

Alastair McFadyen, Bound to Sin: Abuse, Holocaust and the Christian Doctrine of Sin
Stateside: A North American Perspective on Radical Orthodoxy
Authors: Webb Stephen H.
Published: March 2003

Books reviewed in this article:

Graham Ward, Cities of God

John Milbank and Catherine Pickstock, Truth in Aquinas
Water on Fire: Gains from Electricity Trade
Authors: Von Der Fehr Nils‐Henrik M. , Sandsbråten Lise
Published: March 2003

In light of the ongoing liberalization of electricity trade in the Nordic countries, and perhaps in Northern Europe, we argue that gains from electricity trade may be different from those traditionally associated with comparative advantages and economies of scale. In particular, we consider gains arising from the exploitation of technological complementarities between hydro and thermal systems. Our theoretical framework highlights essential features of the two systems and allows for an analysis of effects of trade. We study three trading regimes, which may arise either endogenously or because of trade regulations: day–night power exchange, seasonal energy banking and unbalanced trade. The analysis suggests that gradual trade liberalization may be costly.
The Political Economy of Fiscal Consolidations
Authors: Perotti Roberto
Published: March 2003

In the context of recent research in political economy, this paper addresses the policy problem of fiscal consolidation in terms of three types of issues: i) the macroeconomic effects of alternative strategies to consolidate; ii) the institutional setups conducive to a consolidation; and iii) the best strategy for implementing a consolidation in order to maximize its political feasibility. One methodological feature of this survey is an emphasis on policy feasibility. One methodological feature of this survey is an emphasis on policy issues in order to bridge the gap between the level of abstraction of politico‐economic models of fiscal policy and the issues faced by a policymaker when attempting a fiscal consolidation.
Rational Strategic Choice Revisited
Authors: Bernheim B. Douglas
Published: March 2003

This note corrects an error in Bernheim's (1986) axiomatic characterization of solution concepts for strategic games. Unlike the correction offered by De Wolf and Forges (1998), the approach taken here preserves Bernheim's central results concerning the interrelationships between solution concepts.
Non‐Cooperative Public‐Good Provision and Productivity Differentials
Authors: Ley Eduardo
Published: March 2003

We explore the generality of a Rotten Spouse Theorem in Konrad and Lommerud (1995). While the result holds for an arbitrary number of agents, it fails to hold for general technologies. Some of the implications for models of CO2 emissions are discussed.
Profit Sharing, Capital Formation and the NAIRU
Authors: Jerger Jurgen , Michaelis Jochen
Published: March 2003

This paper reconsiders the impact of different remuneration systems on aggregate employment. Contrary to common wisdom on this topic, we show that the switch from a fixed wage economy to a share economy results in lower aggregate unemployment. An additional innovation of this paper is the endogeneity of the capital stock decision of the firm, which enables us to assess and reject the common “disincentive‐to‐invest” criticism of a share economy.
Redistribution with Unobservable Bequests: A Case for Taxing Capital Income
Authors: Boadway Robin , Marchand Maurice , Pestieau Pierre
Published: March 2003

This paper addresses the question of the optimal taxation of labour and interest income in an overlapping generations model with two unobservable characteristics, ability and inheritance. We assume realistically that saving can only be taxed anonymously, whereas the tax on labour earnings can be individualized and made non‐linear. In such a setting, we show that a withholding tax on interest income along with a non‐linear tax on labour income is desirable. The role of interest income taxation is to indirectly tax inherited wealth.

JEL Classification D63, H2
Insider Bargaining Power, Starting Wages and Involuntary Unemployment
Authors: Gottfries Nils , Sjostrom Tomas
Published: March 2003

Recent studies of wage bargaining and unemployment have emphasized the distinction between insiders and outsiders, and that unions act in the interest of insiders. Yet it is typically assumed that insiders and recently hired outsiders are paid the same wage. We consider a model where the starting wage may differ from the insider wage, but incentive constraints associated with turnover affect the form of the contract. We examine under what conditions the starting wage is linked to the insider wage so that increased bargaining power of insiders raises the starting wage and reduces the hiring of outsiders.

JEL classification: J23; J31; J33
The Impacts of Technology, Trade and Outsourcing on Employment and Labor Composition
Authors: Morrison Paul Catherine J. , Siegel Donald S.
Published: March 2003

Empirical studies of skill‐biased technological change are typically based on a simple production or cost function framework and limited information on technology and labor composition. In contrast, we simultaneously assess the impacts of trade, technology, and outsourcing on shifts in labor demand using a dynamic cost function framework and comprehensive measures of workforce composition and investment in technology. Our findings indicate that technological change has had the largest impact on changes in labor composition. However, the indirect impact of trade on shifts in employment augments its direct impact because trade stimulates computerization, which further exacerbates skill‐biased technological change.
Optimal Financial Structure: An Incomplete Contracting Model
Authors: Leite Tore
Published: March 2003

The financial structures of firms observed in practice typically consist of debt claims of different priority and maturity, and outside equity with unconditional control. A simple model is developed in which this type of complex financial structure arises endogenously as a mechanism to allocate control and cash flow rights among the firm's manager and its investors. While short‐term debt commits the manager to liquidate the firm in low profit states, outside equity with unconditional control allows investors to seize control in states where the manager otherwise would pursue low profit projects with high private benefits of control. Finally, long‐term (junior) debt creates a debt overhang that protects the manager from excessive shareholder involvement.

JEL classification: G32
Evaluating Social Policy by Experimental and Nonexperimental Methods
Authors: Bratberg Espen , Grasdal Astrid , Risa Alf Erling
Published: March 2003

Although it is important to establish causal relationships in social policy evaluation, the effects are difficult to observe due to sample selection. To evaluate the performance of estimators designed to handle sample selection bias, we analyse data from a Norwegian rehabilitation project with a randomised experimental design. The data permit us to compare the performance of different nonexperimental estimators with the experimental results. In our case study we find that nonexperimental evaluation based on sample selection estimators with selection terms that fail to meet conventional levels of statistical significance is highly unreliable. The difference in difference estimator and propensity score matching estimators perform better in our context.

JEL classification: C51; J24; H43; I12
Weak and Strong Signals
Authors: Riley John G.
Published: March 2003

Akerlof, Spence and Stiglitz showed that competitive markets can perform very poorly in the presence of informational asymmetry. In this paper I show that if there is a signaling technology which is sufficiently strong (i.e., the marginal cost of signaling declines sufficiently rapidly with quality) the cost of sorting is low and a Nash equilibrium exists. Empirically testable necessary and sufficient conditions for existence are derived. I further show that if Akerlovian participation constraints are added to a signaling model there is a minimum signaling threshold. Finally I argue that these conclusions hold regardless of whether it is the uninformed or informed agents who move first.

JEL classification: D8
Technological Complexity, Wage Differentials and Unemployment
Authors: Dalmazzo Alberto
Published: March 2003

A model is developed to analyse the relation between wages and technological complexity, as characterised by the “O–ring” theory of production. In equilibrium, the adoption of a relatively complex technology induces the employer to pay higher wages. We argue that the model can explain increased within–group wage inequality as a consequence of increased technological heterogeneity among firms.

JEL classification: J31; O33
Luck, envy and gratitude: It could have been different
Authors: Teigen Karl Halvor
Published: March 2003

Previous studies have shown that people feel lucky in situations that could easily have turned into something worse. The present investigation was designed to focus more closely on the comparative aspect of luck, using a linguistic approach (Study 1 and 2) as well as self‐reports of perceived luck accompanying selected emotional episodes (Study 3). The participants in Study 1 were asked to comment upon the difference between describing a state of affairs as “lucky” vs. “good”. The term “lucky“ was frequently seen to imply a comparison process, sometimes expressing gratitude (“It is lucky I have a family”) and at other times envy (“it is lucky you have a job”). This was confirmed in Study 2 where statements about self and other being lucky or unlucky were rated for implying comparison, gratitude, envy, concern, and impression of speaker. In Study 3, 60 students described situations in which they had felt grateful towards other people as well as towards “life in general”. Questionnaire answers revealed that they also had felt very lucky and had been thinking “it could have been different”. They also produced recollections of envy, which were rated to imply others' good luck and own bad luck, which could easily have been interchanged (“it could have been merdquo;). It is concluded that counterfactual thoughts are decisive for the experiences of luck, gratitude, and envy.
Interpreting the WISC‐R subtest scores of reading impaired children—a structural approach
Authors: Ottem Ernst
Published: March 2003

The problem of characterising more specifically the cognitive requirements involved in subtests from standardised measures of intelligence represents a main problem in the research on exceptional populations. A new way of classifying tests of mental abilities is presented. Rather than focusing on the content of a given test, the present classification system focuses on their structures. The classification system is applied to the WISC‐R (Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children—Revised, Wechsler, 1974). It will be used to interpret the IQ‐profiles of a clinically defined sample of reading impaired children (N=82). The basic finding of the study is that the structural complexity of a subtest influences the tests results of reading impaired children. This influence is interpreted as a consequence of poor procedural knowledge; i.e., poor knowledge about how to organise complex sets of data. It is suggested that teaching of metacognitive strategies could be an aid for reading impaired children.
Emotional modulation of attention orienting: A classical conditioning study
Authors: Stormark Kjell Morten , Hugdahl Kenneth , Posner Michael I.
Published: March 2003

Emotional modulation of attention shifting was investigated in Posner’s (1980) spatial orienting task by conditioning the attention cue to an aversive white noise. Prior to the attention task, the Conditioning group received a 90dB white noise unconditioned stimulus (UCS) contingent upon the frame‐lit rectangle attention cue, while the Control group received non‐contingent presentations. The Conditioning group evidenced greater skin conductance responses to the frame‐lit rectangle in the conditioning phase, reflecting an electrodermal conditioned response. In the attention phase, the frame‐lit rectangle served as the attention cue in the spatial orienting task. The Conditioning group showed equally fast reaction times (RTs) to targets presented outside the location of the cue as to targets at the same location as the cue, reflecting elimination of the cognitive cost usually involved in shifting attention. The Control group evidenced the regular cost of shifting attention away from the location of the cue. The Conditioning group also evidenced a larger N1‐component with a parietal distribution of the event‐related brain potentials to the cue and a larger N1‐component at the frontal regions to targets presented outside the cued location. This suggests that both visual orienting to the cue and attention shifting from cue to target on invalid trials were amplified by the emotional salience attached to the cue through the classical conditioning procedure.
Cognitive processes operating in hindsight
Authors: Winman Anders
Published: March 2003

The aim of this investigation was to study the cognitive processes involved in the “knew‐it‐all‐along” effect, especially in regard to use of inferential processes. The results of three experiments showed that the magnitude of the phenomenon did not increase with more use of inferential processes. It is proposed that only under misleading circumstances do inferential processes associated with overconfidence increase the magnitude of the phenomenon. For a majority of the tasks introspectively classified as solved by pure guessing, the hindsight phenomenon entirely disappeared whereas "intuition" tasks lead to the strongest bias. The results are generally consistent with the accuracy‐assessment model (A. Winman et al., 1998).
Relative alpha desynchronization and synchronization during perception of music
Authors: Krause Christina M. , Pörn Bodil , Lang A. Heikki , Laine Matti
Published: March 2003

Relative desynchronization (ERD) and synchronization (ERS) of the 8–10 Hz and 10–12 Hz alpha freqency bands elicited by music were studied in ten musically untrained right‐handed subjects. The subjects listened to two five‐minute musical excerpts representing two different musical genres, popular and classical, presented both foward and backward. ERD/ERS of the two alpha frequency bands was examined during the first four minutes of stimulus presentation using one‐minute time windows. The results demonstrated that both the 8–10 Hz and the 10–12Hz frequency band exhibited reactivity to musical stimuli. The responses of the 8–10Hz and 10–12 Hz alpha frequency bands were dissimilar, dymanic and dependent on both time and stimulation type. The dynamics of these changes over time may explain some discrepancies in earlier EEG studies during listening to music.
Norwegian short‐form of the Marlowe‐Crowne Social Desirability Scale
Authors: Rudmin Floyd W.
Published: March 2003

A tutorial example demonstrates the effects of social desirability bias on fictional multiculturalism and mental health data and how bias can be moderated by parital correlations using social desirabiliry measures of different degrees of validity. The 33‐item Marlowe‐Crowne Social Desirability scale was translated from English to Norwegian and presented to 117 university students and 124 non‐students. Using psychometric criteria, and a “seed‐crystal” method accretion, a 10‐item Norwegian short‐form of the Marlowe‐Crowne scale was produced.
Chronic pain as a posture towards the world
Authors: Honkasalo Marja‐Liisa
Published: March 2003

This article discusses what chronic pain is “about”, what the intentional object is of pain, and what is the intentional relation like? My approach is based on Maurice Merleau‐Ponty’s phenomenology, with an aim is to understand a two‐way relationship: how the sufferers bestow meaning on chronic pain, and how pain, on the other hand, signifies peoples’ life. In contrast to biomedical and cognitive‐behavioral theories, chronic pain is not only meaningful, but as an intentional emotion as well; it does not simply “happen” in the nervous system. I analyzed meanings assigned to pain through the narratives of three patients with chronic pain. Pain is described as creating a discontinuity in the patient’s Lebenswelt at the narrative level. When attempting to find meaning to their pain, patients point both to everyday life and biomedical referents.

The structure of bestowing meaning is, metaphorically, like a necklace with everyday world and biomedical interpretations strung like beads, one after the other. The intentional object of pain, on the contrary, is constituted of the patients’ world in its wholeness. My results don’t confirm Drew Leder’s idea of disrupted intentionality, but underline directness as the basic relation of human experience also in case of pain and disease. Pain in itself is an e‐movere, an intense passionate movement, an intentional relation with and a bodily posture taken towards the world.
What do computer models of cognition explain: A reply to Gobet
Authors: Saariluoma Pertti , Laine Tei
Published: March 2003

The differences between Gobet’s views and ours call attention to some points concerning the argumentative status of computational models. If we have two fundamentally different models which reasonably accurately simulate a phenomenon, we must ask, what is the argumentative status of the models in psychological terms. Moreover, if it is possible to present different models of same phenomena, what is the general argumentative power of models in psychology? As the kind of differences between our views and the ones of Gobet’s are common in modelling, we briefly call attention to these foundational issues in our paper.
Determinants of picture naming times in Icelandic
Authors: Pind Jörgen , Tryggvadóttir Hjördís Björg
Published: March 2003

Numerous studies have found that word frequency has a significant effect on the time it takes to name an object or read a word. Recently, claims have been made that this frequency effect is perhaps more correctly interpreted as an age of acquisition effect. This paper reports an experiment in which naming times in Icelandic for 175 stimuli from the Snodgrass and Vanderwart picture set were determined. A multiple regression analysis of naming times against a number of independent factors showed that objective age of acquisition was the strongest predictor of naming time, with familiarity and name agreement also showing a significant effect. The effect of word frequency was, however, not significant. Possible reasons for this are discussed.
Amnestic disorders and their role in cognitive theory
Authors: Reinvan Iva
Published: March 2003

Amnesia refers to a disorder of memory, and classical amnesia with continuous problems in aquiring new information is the most studied type of amnesia. The integration into a memory systems model of clinical studies of classical amnesia, cognitive theory, and studies with neuroimaging methods is one of the prime success stories in modern cognitive neuroscience. The clinical spectrum of amnesia encompasses a wide range of disorders ranging from specific encoding deficits for language or visuospatial information to psychogenic amnesia with confusion and loss of memory for personal identity. Two cases are reviewed, one with selective verbal amnesia and the other with focal retrograde amnesia, presenting some puzzles and challenges to current modular thinking about memory that may lead to theoretical advances. An interactive model emphasizing the communication between brain codes and regions in memory may have promise.
Estimation of an Ergodic Diffusion from Discrete Observations
Authors: Kessler Mathieu
Published: March 2003

We consider a one‐dimensional diffusion process X, with ergodic property, with drift b(x, θ) and diffusion coefficient a(x, σ) depending on unknown parameters θ and σ. We are interested in the joint estimation of (θ, σ). For that purpose, we dispose of a discretized trajectory, observed at n equidistant times tni = ihn, 1 ≤i≤n. We assume that hn← 0 and nhn←∞. Under the condition nhnp← 0 for an arbitrary integer p, we exhibit a contrast dependent on p which provides us with an asymptotically normal and efficient estimator of (θ, σ).
Infinite Parameter Estimates in Logistic Regression, with Application to Approximate Conditional Inference
Authors: Kolassa John E.
Published: March 2003

This paper discusses recovery of information regarding logistic regression parameters in cases when maximum likelihood estimates of some parameters are infinite. An algorithm for detecting such cases and characterizing the divergence of the parameter estimates is presented. A method for fitting the remaining parameters is also presented . All of these methods rely only on sufficient statistics rather than less aggregated quantities, as required for inference according to the method of Kolassa & Tanner (1994). These results are applied to approximate conditional inference via saddlepoint methods. Specifically, the double saddlepoint method of Skovgaard (1987) is adapted to the case when the solution to the saddlepoint equations exists as a point at infinity
Testing for Imperfect Debugging in Software Reliability
Authors: Slud Eric
Published: March 2003

This paper continues the study of the software reliability model of Fakhre‐Zakeri & Slud (1995), an “exponential order statistic model” in the sense of Miller (1986) with general mixing distribution, imperfect debugging and large‐sample asymptotics reflecting increase of the initial number of bugs with software size. The parameters of the model are θ (proportional to the initial number of bugs in the software), G(·, μ) (the mixing df, with finite dimensional unknown parameter μ, for the rates λi with which the bugs in the software cause observable system failures), and p (the probability with which a detected bug is instantaneously replaced with another bug instead of being removed). Maximum likelihood estimation theory for (θ, p, μ) is applied to construct a likelihood‐based score test for large sample data of the hypothesis of “perfect debugging” (p = 0) vs “imperfect” (p > 0) within the models studied. There are important models (including the Jelinski–Moranda) under which the score statistics with 1/√n normalization are asymptotically degenerate. These statistics, illustrated on a software reliability data of Musa (1980), can serve nevertheless as important diagnostics for inadequacy of simple models
Ordering of Sequentially Sampled Exponential Experiments
Authors: Greenshtein Eitan , Torgersen Erik
Published: March 2003

Let X1, X2, ... be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables, Xi∼Fθ, θ∈Θ. Let N1 and N2 be two stopping rules. For a class of exponential families {Fθ: θ∈Θ} we show that the experiment Y1 = (X1, ..., XN1) carries more statistical information than Y2 = (X1, ..., xN2) only if N1 is stochastically larger then N2
Local Adaptivity of Kernel Estimates with Plug‐in Local Bandwidth Selectors
Authors: Gijbels I. , Mammen E.
Published: March 2003

In non‐parametric function estimation selection of a smoothing parameter is one of the most important issues. The performance of smoothing techniques depends highly on the choice of this parameter. Preferably the bandwidth should be determined via a data‐driven procedure. In this paper we consider kernel estimators in a white noise model, and investigate whether locally adaptive plug‐in bandwidths can achieve optimal global rates of convergence. We consider various classes of functions: Sobolev classes, bounded variation function classes, classes of convex functions and classes of monotone functions. We study the situations of pilot estimation with oversmoothing and without oversmoothing. Our main finding is that simple local plug‐in bandwidth selectors can adapt to spatial inhomogeneity of the regression function as long as there are no local oscillations of high frequency. We establish the pointwise asymptotic distribution of the regression estimator with local plug‐in bandwidth.
Shrinkage and Orthogonal Decomposition
Authors: Blaker Helge
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACT. The problem of estimating the mean of a multivariate normal distribution when the parameter space allows an orthogonal decomposition is discussed. Risk functions and lower bounds for a class of shrinkage estimators that includes Stein’s estimator are derived, and an improvement on Stein’s estimator that takes advantage of the orthogonal decomposition is introduced. Uniform asymptotics related to Pinsker’s minimax risk is derived and we give conditions for attaining the lower risk bound. Special cases including regression and analysis of variance are discussed.
Cox Regression with Incomplete Covariate Measurements using the EM‐algorithm
Authors: Martinussen Torben
Published: March 2003

Ibrahim (1990) used the EM‐algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the regression parameters in generalized linear models with partially missing covariates. The technique was termed EM by the method of weights. In this paper, we generalize this technique to Cox regression analysis with missing values in the covariates. We specify a full model letting the unobserved covariate values be random and then maximize the observed likelihood. The asymptotic covariance matrix is estimated by the inverse information matrix. The missing data are allowed to be missing at random but also the non‐ignorable non‐response situation may in principle be considered. Simulation studies indicate that the proposed method is more efficient than the method suggested by Paik & Tsai (1997). We apply the procedure to a clinical trials example with six covariates with three of them having missing values.
Kernel Density Estimation with Generalized Binning
Authors: Pawlak M. , Stadtmuller U.
Published: March 2003

We propose kernel density estimators based on prebinned data. We use generalized binning schemes based on the quantiles points of a certain auxiliary distribution function. Therein the uniform distribution corresponds to usual binning. The statistical accuracy of the resulting kernel estimators is studied, i.e. we derive mean squared error results for the closeness of these estimators to both the true function and the kernel estimator based on the original data set. Our results show the influence of the choice of the auxiliary density on the binned kernel estimators and they reveal that non‐uniform binning can be worthwhile.
M‐estimation Under a Two‐Sample Semiparametric Model
Authors: Zhang Biao
Published: March 2003

We consider M‐estimation under a two‐sample semiparametric model in which the log ratio of two unknown density functions has a known parametric form. This two‐sample semiparametric model, arising naturally from case‐control studies and logistic discriminant analysis, can be regarded as a biased sampling model. A new class of M‐estimators are constructed on the basis of the maximum semiparametric likelihood estimator of the underlying distribution function. It is shown that the proposed M‐estimators are consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. A simulation study is presented to demonstrate the performance of the proposed M‐estimators.
Asymptotic Analysis of the Sieve Estimator for a Class of Parabolic SPDEs
Authors: Huebner M. , Lototsky S.
Published: March 2003

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating a coefficient of a strongly elliptic partial differential operator in stochastic parabolic equations. The coefficient is a bounded function of time. We compute the maximum likelihood estimate of the function on an approximating space (sieve) using a finite number of the spatial Fourier coefficients of the solution and establish conditions that guarantee consistency and asymptotic normality of the resulting estimate as the number of the coefficients increases. The equation is assumed diagonalizable in the sense that all the operators have a common system of eigenfunctions.
Space‐time Multi Type Log Gaussian Cox Processes with a View to Modelling Weeds
Authors: Brix Anders , Moller Jesper
Published: March 2003

Log Gaussian Cox processes as introduced in Moller et al. (1998) are extended to space‐time models called log Gaussian Cox birth processes. These processes allow modelling of spatial and temporal heterogeneity in time series of increasing point processes consisting of different types of points. The models are shown to be easy to analyse yet flexible enough for a detailed statistical analysis of a particular agricultural experiment concerning the development of two weed species on an organic barley field. Particularly, the aspects of estimation, model validation and intensity surface prediction are discussed.
Resampling Methods for Testing a Semiparametric Random Censorship Model
Authors: ZHU L. X. , YUEN K. C. , TANG N. Y.
Published: March 2003

This paper presents a goodness‐of‐fit test for a semiparametric random censorship model proposed by Dikta (1998). The test statistic is derived from a model‐based process which is asymptotically Gaussian. In addition to test consistency, the proposed test can detect local alternatives distinct n‐1/2 from the null hypothesis. Due to the intractability of the asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic, we turn to two resampling approximations. We first use the well‐known bootstrap method to approximate critical values of the test. We then introduce a so‐called random symmetrization method for carrying out the test. Both methods perform very well with a sample of moderate size. A simulation study shows that the latter possesses better empirical powers and sizes for small samples.
Testing Hypotheses in the Functional Linear Model
Authors: Cardot Hervé , Ferraty Frédéric , Mas André , Sarda Pascal
Published: March 2003

The functional linear model with scalar response is a regression model where the predictor is a random function defined on some compact set of ℝ and the response is scalar. The response is modelled as Y=Ψ(X)+ɛ, where Ψ is some linear continuous operator defined on the space of square integrable functions and valued in ℝ. The random input X is independent from the noise ɛ. In this paper, we are interested in testing the null hypothesis of no effect, that is, the nullity of Ψ restricted to the Hilbert space generated by the random variable X. We introduce two test statistics based on the norm of the empirical cross‐covariance operator of (X,Y). The first test statistic relies on a χ2 approximation and we show the asymptotic normality of the second one under appropriate conditions on the covariance operator of X. The test procedures can be applied to check a given relationship between X and Y. The method is illustrated through a simulation study.
Path‐Dependent Danish Welfare Reforms: The Contribution of the New Institutionalisms to Understanding Evolutionary Change
Authors: Torfing Jacob
Published: March 2003

Political attempts to reform existing policies often fail to bring about substantial change. When they succeed, the new policy is heavily influenced by the pre‐existing policy path. This is confirmed by the story of Danish welfare reforms in the 1980s and 1990s, which can be explained in terms of their path dependency. In order to understand better the mechanisms of path dependency I draw on the fundamental insights of the new institutionalisms: rational choice institutionalism, historical institutionalism, and social constructivist institutionalism. The article begins with a brief presentation and comparison of the three new institutionalisms. It then discusses the dialectics of path shaping and path dependency before seeking to explicate the mechanisms of path dependency. Finally, the various accounts of path dependency are applied in an empirical study of the failure of welfare retrenchment in the 1980s and the relatively successful restructuring of the welfare state in the 1990s.
Radical Right Populism in Sweden: Still a Failure, But for How Long?
Authors: Rydgren Jens
Published: March 2003

Although radical right populist (RRP) parties were successful elsewhere in Western Europe during the 1990s, Denmark and Norway included, the Swedish RRP parties have been more or less failures. Besides the short‐lived party New Democracy, which disappeared in 1994, no Swedish RRP party has managed to escape electoral marginalization. The main purpose of this article is to explain this failure. Such an explanation is approached by using explanatory factors identified from earlier research on RRP parties elsewhere. We find some factors that have worked against the emergence of a strong Swedish RRP party, namely: enduring class loyalties, especially for working‐class voters; an enduring high salience of the economic cleavage dimension (and a corresponding low salience of the sociocultural cleavage dimension); a relatively low salience of the immigration issue; and finally, a low degree of convergence between the established parties in political space. However, we also find some important indicators that there may be an available niche for the emergence of a Swedish RRP party in the near future, namely: widespread popular xenophobia; a high level of discontent with political parties and other political institutions; and a potential available niche for an anti‐EU party of the right. Hence, this article concludes that if a sufficiently attractive party emerges in Sweden, with a certain degree of strategic sophistication and without too visible an anti‐democratic heresy, it might be able to attract enough voters to secure representation in the Swedish parliament.
The Labour Market Regimes in the Nordic Countries: A Comparative Analysis
Authors: Elvander Nils
Published: March 2003

The aim of the article is to discuss the differences between the labour market regimes in Denmark, Norway, Sweden and Finland in a historical perspective. The foundations of the regimes were laid more than 100 years ago. Differences in labour market institutions and practices are in fact substantial, particularly as regards the role of the state in collective bargaining and conflict resolution, but also in connection with incomes policy. While the state for a long time has played a significant role in Denmark and Norway, mainly concerning conflict resolution, and in Finland since the 1960s in the form of comprehensive incomes policy agreements, a doctrine of freedom of the labour market from state intervention has dominated in Sweden. These divergences can to a great extent be explained by differences in the democratization process and the organizational structure, particularly in the trade unions, which reflect different timing and structure in the process of industrialization. ‘Path dependency’ has been strong in the North. The main elements of the four national labour market regimes are still there, such as trade union fragmentation and strong instruments for conflict resolution in Denmark and Norway, relatively advanced social partner responsibility for bargaining outcomes and conflict resolution in Sweden (although sometimes against the background of threats of state intervention), and almost continuous tripartite consultation in Finland as a stabilizing element in a much more turbulent political environment than in the neighbouring countries. There are no clear tendencies towards convergence between the Nordic labour market regimes.
Reported Speech and Survivor Identity in On‐Line Bone Marrow Transplantation Narratives
Authors: Hamilton Heidi E.
Published: March 2003

This paper investigates the language choices made by contributors to an electronic discussion list on bone marrow transplantation, called SupportBMT, and relates these to the construction of these contributors’ identities as survivors rather than as victims of a life‐threatening disease and/or of a life‐threatening medical treatment. Specifically, it examines the use of 142 instances of reported speech within 61 narratives posted to SupportBMT that recount conflict within a past medical encounter. Analyses of the illocutionary acts of these instances of reported speech, as well as the alternation between direct and indirect reported speech in these narratives, portray the patient as a strong self‐advocate and the physician as contributing to that positive image of the patient, either directly or indirectly. Findings suggest that survivors’ use of reported speech within such narratives provides a socialization model for newcomers to the community of those with such illnesses.
Deutsch in Inner London and the animation of an instructed foreign language
Authors: Rampton Ben
Published: March 2003

There has been a remarkable neglect of instructed foreign languages in sociolinguistics, and this can be attributed to a traditionally ‘reflectionist’ view of the relationship between language and social structure, to a preoccupation with the home‐school interface, and to the dominance of what Bernstein (1996) calls the ‘social logic of competence’. In combination, these concerns provide little scope for seeing how the value and social indexicality of a school foreign language (FL) might be reshaped within the micropolitics of classroom interaction, or how an FL might serve as a significant resource in the maintenance and accumulation of vernacular prestige. More recent conceptual developments, however, make processes like these more visible, and this is illustrated in an analysis of the impromptu use of German among adolescents in a multilingual school in inner London, where the aesthetics of performance (in R. Bauman's sense) play a significant role, both in the negotiation of identities and in the repositioning of an official code at school.
Language, structure and agency: What can realist social theory offer to sociolinguistics?
Authors: Carter Bob , Sealey Alison
Published: March 2003

The sociolinguistic enterprise raises fundamental questions about the nature of the relationships between social phenomena (such as social class or gender) and linguistic variation, while within social theory a persistent concern is the nature of the relationship between structure and agency. Sociolinguistics can draw on social theory for analysis of the relationship between speaker and system, the role of language in the creation, maintenance and change of social institutions, and the role of human agency in sociolinguistic phenomena. This article summarises the key tenets of a sociological realism, based on the recent work of Margaret Archer (in particular her exploration of analytical dualism) and of Derek Layder (specifically his theory of ‘social domains’). It relates these ideas to sociolinguistics, arguing that language can be seen to have a different significance, depending on which domain is the focus of the researcher's interest. The article considers the distinctiveness of this approach, contrasting it with structuralist and social constructionist accounts and with structuration. It concludes by identifying some methodological implications, suggesting that sociological realism offers a productive theoretical framework for sociolinguistics in dealing with questions of language, structure and agency.