bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
External Zones in the Gravity Model—Some Further Developments
Authors: Roy J R
Published: October 2006

In urban transport studies, the boundaries of the outermost zones are usually set to coincide with the expected periphery of development at the end of the study period. In practice, there often exist considerable traffic flows to and from these zones and settlements outside the urban area. In this note, suggestions are made to include such flows within a consistent entropy maximizing framework. The model accounts for the total worker supply and total job demand characteristics of the external zones, whilst ensuring that the relevant constraints are not violated.
Property, Sales, Income Taxes, and Urban Spatial Structure
Authors: Thrall G I
Published: October 2006

A hybrid approach combining theoretical and numerical strategies is utilized in determining the effect that government activity has upon urban land values and structure. A theoretical model of the interaction of households and a local government is used to structure the salient relationships. A numerical analysis is subsequently performed on the analytic system to qualitatively evaluate both the implications and the reasonableness of the system. A hybrid investigation lends credence to abstract analyses and supports the use of theoretical constructs in the development of empirical formulations.
Temporal Change in a Central-Place System
Authors: Parr J B
Published: October 2006

A serious deficiency in the development of central-place theory has been the general lack of any systematic treatment of the question of temporal change. This deficiency has undoubtedly impaired the usefulness of central-place theory in the analysis of urban systems. In this paper three broad categories of temporal change in a central-place system are identified. One such category involves changes in the structure of the hierarchy. These consist of the formation of a new level of the hierarchy, the modification in the extent of a level, and the disappearance of a level. Existing central-place models prove inadequate for dealing with changes of this kind, and it becomes necessary to adopt a comparative-static approach which employs less restrictive models. Such an approach inevitably involves a degree of simplification, although it is able to take account of the fact that change takes place against a background of locational inertia, in which the locations of central places are fixed. This comparative-static approach may be helpful in the analysis of actual urban systems and their development through time.
Spatial Aspects of Intraurban Migration Behaviour in a Mixed Housing Market
Authors: Ford R G , Smith G C
Published: October 2006

This paper examines the validity of J S Adams's propositions concerning the spatial properties of overt migration behaviour in the context of a British city (that is, Birmingham) with a significant public housing sector. Samples of migration moves associated with separate housing submarkets, identified on the basis of tenure/dwelling type criteria, are tested for sectoral, directional, and distance biases. Mean movement distances are computed to measure distance bias, and sectoral and directional biases are assessed by two move-angle models: (1) a uniform vacancy model, and (2) a weighted vacancy model which controls for the effects of a vacancy surface on migration patterns. In general, the results suggest that support for Adams's propositions is limited to moves associated with submarkets either in the private or in the public housing sectors characterized by relatively high levels of tenure security. It is concluded that locational preferences usually assume a low priority in migration decisionmaking when households are only temporarily committed to their current dwellings.
A Behavioral Approach to Modelling Household Motor Vehicle Ownership and Applications to Aggregate Policy Analysis
Authors: Ben-Akiva M , Manski C F , Sherman L
Published: October 2006

A unified approach to the modelling of household motor vehicle ownership level, consumption of vehicle holdings, and vehicle use is described. The model system is founded on a utility theory of household behavior, and is implemented through probabilistic discrete choice models estimated from cross-sectional samples of households. Following the introduction of the model, an application involving forecasts of US motor vehicle sales through the mid-1980s is presented.
Space—Time Budgets, Public Transport, and Spatial Choice
Authors: Forer P C , Kivell Helen
Published: October 2006

This paper addresses the problem of access to urban facilities for housewives without cars, and the methodology of the Lund School is used to investigate the spatial constraints affecting access to and choice between a selected group of urban facilities in the city of Christchurch, New Zealand. To do this, the characteristics of the public transport system are investigated, and time-budget data used to specify typical windows of free time during a housespouse's day. From there the potential action and activity spaces of individuals in four suburbs are delimited, and these are used in assessing the variations in access to and choice between facilities in these suburbs. Finally, the social impact of the current bus provision in the context of the social structure of the city is raised as a policy issue.
Statistical Analysis of the Pattern Similarity between Two Sets of Regional Clusters
Authors: Okabe A
Published: October 2006

This paper shows a statistical method of testing the pattern similarity between two sets of regional clusters. First, to measure the similarity the distance between two sets of clusters is defined. Second, a statistical method is formulated to test whether or not the distance between two sets of clusters is close. Third, the concept of spatially well-grouped clusters is defined in conjunction with the above statistical test, and it is shown that this concept is useful for regional analysis. Last, the sets of regional clusters in the Kyushu region is studied by the above statistical test and concept.
A Note on the Stability of Equilibrium Solutions of Production-Constrained Spatial-Interaction Models
Authors: Clarke M
Published: October 2006

In a recent paper an analysis of the stability of equilibrium solutions of production-constrained retailing models was undertaken by Harris and Wilson. It was argued that by examining equilibrium solutions in response to changes in a parameter, κ, jumps in the value of state variables, analogous to the fold catastrophe, could be expected. In this note it is shown that this is not necessarily always the case, and two different conditions are identified, one that gives rise to jump behaviours, and another that does not. The distinction arises from the nature of the κ parameter.
On the Impact of Geographic Distance on the Interregional Patterns of Production and Trade
Authors: Peschel Karin
Published: October 2006

The paper questions the ‘classical’ concept of distance on which interregional interaction models of the linear programming and the gravitation type are based. In contrast to the conclusions drawn from several econometric studies by Gordon inter alia the following hypotheses are suggested:

There is no spatial stability in the relationship between flow levels and geographic distance with respect to particular commodity groups because of historical and geographical particularities in connection with product heterogeneity and oligopolistic market structure. If at all, a distance variable may explain the patterns of production and trade on an aggregate level. This factor of distance is neither equivalent to the transportation costs of today, nor does it fully represent the communication costs of today. It rather reflects the influence of the past on the contemporary spatial pattern of production and trade. With respect to international trade the impact of distance is of minor importance compared to the influence of cultural and linguistic affinity of spatial association and political relationship. These hypotheses are supported by quoting the results of several studies of the Institut für Regionalforschung der Universität Kiel arrived at in the past few years. All this research work centred on the question of how the spatial pattern of production and trade was influenced by national borders and geographic distance in the course of the European economic integration process. The final conclusion of the paper is the need for a theoretical reorientation.
A City-Size Distribution Model Based on the Weber-Fechner Law of Marginal Effects
Authors: Bussière R , Stovall T
Published: October 2006

The distribution by size of the cities of a region reflects the locational decisions made by the inhabitants concerned. Some of the factors underlying these decisions have a bearing on city size, and, it is assumed, make up a utility function that varies with city size according to the Weber-Fechner law of marginal effects. Under these conditions, the maximum entropy distribution of the population among the cities of the region gives rise to the hierarchical model described in the paper. Examples are given of calibrations of the model. It is shown that in the applicable statistical range this distribution and the Pareto distribution, although formally different, are quantitatively interchangeable. The derivation presented here may therefore be regarded as providing a new rationale for the Pareto city-size distribution model.
A Theory of Activity Scheduling Behavior
Authors: Damm D , Lerman S R
Published: October 2006

Recognizing that travel is a demand derived from individuals' desires to undertake out-of-home activities, researchers in the area of travel demand have become increasingly interested in analyzing and predicting individuals' decisions about activity participation. This paper formulates a theory of activity scheduling for urban workers. In this theory, each worker chooses whether or not to participate in an out-of-home, nonwork activity in each of five blocks of time defined around their obligatory trip to work. In addition, conditional on the decision to participate in any particular time block, the chosen duration of participation is analyzed.

The econometric problems of operationalizing the theory are resolved, and the resulting model is applied to analyze the scheduling behavior of a sample of workers in the Minneapolis-St Paul metropolitan area. This case study suggests some significant directions for further research on activity analysis.
A Note on Hierarchical Income Flows
Authors: Mulligan G F
Published: October 2006

The Beckmann and McPherson model formulates city sizes according to Christaller's hierarchical principles. The following paper investigates the income flows and balance of payments equilibria which are characteristic of this model. It is demonstrated that the flow patterns in a Christaller-type city system are at variance with those in a Tinbergen-type city system.
Regional Preferences for Interlocking Directorates among the Largest American Corporations
Authors: Greeny M B
Published: October 2006

The phenomenon of corporate interlocks among large American corporations is examined in the context of an information network. This information network is analyzed at the regional level by use of multidimensional scaling. Three characteristics used in the selection of directors are revealed; the length of service of the chief executive officer, whether the region is a traditional manufacturing region, and whether the region of the headquarters of a corporation is east or west of the Mississippi River. These factors help to explain the bias of the manufacturing belt for selection of directors within the belt, and may be a contributing cause of the decline of the region.
Planners as Urban Managers: An Exploration of the Attitudes and Self-Image of Senior British Planners
Authors: Knox P , Cullen J
Published: October 2006

The question of the nature and homogeneity of planners' attitudes and self-image is central to the current debate on planners as urban managers. If planners do possess an ‘institutional mind’ which is closely attuned to the ‘ruling ideas of a ruling elite’, and if their role in determining who gains and who loses in the process of planned urban development is influenced by a coherent professional ideology, then planners can be expected to share distinctive orientations towards the holders of political office, towards the urban environment itself, and towards specific social groups. In this paper we explore this issue, drawing on data from a survey of senior British planners. It is shown that British planners are drawn from a fairly narrowly defined spectrum of society and that they do in fact share distinctive attitudinal orientations. They subscribe to professional roles as mediators, guardians of the physical environment, and, above all, managers of the urban system. It is suggested that the ‘ideal type’ of planning personality centres on a managerial ethos which is directed towards ‘problem solving’ in a rationalist, positivistic way within a strictly defined hierarchy of authority. There is evidence, however, that there exist several subtypes of planning personality within this overall orientation.
Future Generations and Discounting Rules in Public Sector Investment Appraisal
Authors: Kula E
Published: October 2006

In public sector investment appraisal the widely recommended ‘net present value’ criterion does not treat future generations in the same way as present members of society. Because of the discounting rules applied in evaluating a government investment project by means of the net present value criterion, a decisionmaker inevitably discriminates against the future members of society by giving less weight to their share of benefits (or costs) which will accrue to them at some future date. He does this simply because they are not alive at the precise time when the decision is made. The more distant they are in time from the present generations, the less weight is attached to their shares. As a consequence, in evaluating long-term investment projects, particularly those in which the benefits and costs are separated from each other with a long time interval, the net present value rules guide the decisionmaker to maximise the utility of present generations at the expense of the future ones. If the decisionmaker wishes to treat all generations, present and future equally, as he should, instead of the net present value criterion a different method of appraisal is proposed, and is called ‘the sum of discounted consumption flows’.
Locational Specialization of Retail Trade Functions in Warszawa
Authors: Chudzyńska Irena
Published: October 2006

The concentric-belt spatial structure of retail trade in Warszawa (Warsaw) in 1970 and the four-level hierarchy of retail trade functions are determined and analysed,; and a comparison made of the spatial distributions of the retail trade and of demand.
A Unifying Framework for Public Facility Location Problems—Part 1: A Critical Overview and Some Unsolved Problems
Authors: Leonardi G
Published: October 2006

This paper, a condensed report of the present state of the work in the Public Facility Location Task (formerly the Normative Location Modeling Task) at IIASA, has three main aims: first, to build a general framework for location problems; second, to use this framework to unify existing location models; and, third, to use the framework to develop new, more general, and more meaningful location models. Suggestions are also given on how to introduce multiple services and multiple time periods in location problems. The multiactivity dynamic location models that this perspective generates is the subject of future research in the Public Facility Location Task. This first part of the paper gives a nontechnical description of the proposed general framework for analyzing location problems. The second part will describe mathematical models for static, single-service, facility location problems and their possible extensions and improvements, and will appear in the next issue.
A Family of Tests for a Collection of Poisson Processes: An Application to Occupancy Transfer
Authors: Crouchley R
Published: October 2006

The Poisson process can be considered as an appropriate model for a collection of event streams such as residence histories or dwelling tenure series. However, the statistical analysis of Poisson models is complicated by the possible existence of heterogeneity and nonstationarity, and this paper notes the lack of tests which are available to investigate this. Likelihood ratio tests are developed and applied to some dwelling tenure series.
Behavioural Models and Spatial Planning: Some Methodological Considerations and Empirical Tests
Authors: Timmermans H J P , Veldhuisen K J
Published: October 2006

This paper is concerned with the relevance of various geographic models of spatial shopping and residential choice behaviour to physical planning. It is argued that models relying on areal aggregation and overt spatial interaction patterns generally do not satisfy a number of methodological requirements considered extremely relevant in an applied context. In addition, it is argued that behavioural models provide a potentially more valuable approach for predicting consumer response to policy decisions with regard to spatial structure. Empirical evidence substantiating the claim that consumer evaluations bear some systematic relationship with objective attributes of spatial alternatives and overt choice behaviour is provided in the context of spatial shopping behaviour and residential choice behaviour.
Representation of Soft and Hard Data for Urban Areas—Case Studies in Berlin and Karlsruhe
Authors: Kern H F
Published: October 2006

This paper examines the utility of hard and soft data in computer cartography, with respect both to the method of data acquisition and to the type of information recorded. The potential and problems of linking computer aided analysis with automated cartographic representation are considered. By way of illustrative examples, the objectives of two case studies in Berlin and Karlsruhe are stated and some of the relevant cartographical results reproduced.
Making Planning More Responsive to its Users: The Concept of Metaplanning
Authors: de Bettencourt J S , Mandell M B , Polzin S E , Sauter V L , Schofer J L
Published: October 2006

Increasing the ability of planning to foster desired, real world events requires planners to consider explicitly the broad range of possible uses and users of their products and to adapt these products and the associated planning process to meet the needs of different users more directly. Metaplanning, a structured process for constructing both responsive as well as ethically sound approaches to planning, is described as an approach for accomplishing this. It is an ongoing activity which can be integrated into the planning function to increase its usefulness and viability. This notion is explored, a strategy for metaplanning is presented, and some of its implications are explored.
Spatial Aggregation in Gravity Models. 1. An Information-Theoretic Framework
Authors: Batty M , Sikdar P K
Published: October 2006

This is the first of four papers concerned with developing a comprehensive approach to the spatial aggregation problem in gravity models. A framework for exploring the problem is outlined in this paper, and will be applied to one-dimensional and two-dimensional spatial interaction models in the subsequent papers. Appropriate statistics for measuring changes in spatial variation due to spatial aggregation in data sets and in model predictions of spatial interaction are derived by use of information theory; and these statistics, such as spatial entropy, have excellent decomposition properties which can be readily exploited in the study of aggregation effects in data and models. These properties involve information components associated with density, level of detail or average zone size, dimension, and level of resolution. Use of the spatial entropy function, in particular, enables consistent relationships to be developed between information components and model parameters, and these relationships are examined in detail in subsequent papers.
Interregional Migration Models with Source and Interaction Information
Authors: Rogerson P , MacKinnon R D
Published: October 2006

The importance of information flows in models of migration are emphasized. In particular, migrants are, assumed to react to two types of information about job vacancies. ‘Interaction information’ may be defined as interpersonal communication between recent migrants and their former neighbors or friends, and ‘source information’ represents a direct flow of information from employers or agencies to individuals. Models are developed that investigate the effects of various communication rates and information retention levels on vacancy and labor-force population trajectories. It is found that attempts by planners to reduce regional inequities in vacancy rates through controlled advertising may be successful, but at the possible cost of increasing temporal fluctuations of regional vacancy rates.
A Qualitative Method of Trend Curve Analysis
Authors: Okabe A
Published: October 2006

This paper gives a method for analyzing qualitative characteristics of a trend curve. First, a small segment of the trend curve is examined in terms of a ‘peak’, a ‘bottom’, and a ‘slope’. Second, a sequence of these qualitative local trends is topologically investigated. Third, to measure the qualitative similarity between two trend curves a qualitative similarity coefficient is proposed. Last, an empirical application is given.
Housing Market Search Behavior and Expected Utility Theory: 1. Measuring Preferences for Housing
Authors: Smith T R , Clark W A V
Published: October 2006

This is the first of two papers examining housing market search in a Los Angeles market. In this paper, we derive and analyze utility functions for housing for each individual in two groups of subjects. The utility functions are derived from an experimental setting, in which house price, floor space, construction quality, and neighborhood quality are varied. The functions are found to be essentially compatible with a linear model. They are used to predict the ratings of real houses and the ratings of the expected value of future search. These ratings are compared with actual ratings obtained from subjects during search. The results suggest that the actual or predicted ratings may be employed in a direct test of a simple expected utility theory of search, and further research along these lines appears justified.
Housing Market Search Behavior and Expected Utility Theory: 2. The Process of Search
Authors: Clark W A V , Smith T R
Published: October 2006

This paper presents the second part of a study of an expected utility theory of housing market search. The basic disequilibrium theory of search is recapitulated, and a direct estimate of the stress function ψit is calculated from individual data on households during the process of search (the longitudinal sample) and households who had already bought a house (the retrospective sample). Although the tests are simple and approximate and are not without problems, we conclude that the direct test yields results which are in accordance with the theory. Additional explanatory analyses of the process of search focused on the interrelationship of household characteristics, housing attributes, search effort, and search strategy. The descriptive data on temporal and spatial search emphasize the importance of realtor involvement in search, the constraints (on search) of stage in the household life cycle, and the differences in search activities for new and ‘used’ housing.
A Phenomenological Theory of Socioeconomic Systems with Spatial Interactions
Authors: Lesse P F
Published: October 2006

This paper deals with a class of models which describe spatial interactions and are based on Jaynes's principle. The variables entering these models can be partitioned in four groups: (a) probability density distributions (for example, relative traffic flows), (b) expected values (average cost of travel), (c) their duals (Lagrange multipliers, traffic impedance coefficient), and (d) operators transforming probabilities into expected values.

The paper presents several dual formulations replacing the problem of maximizing entropy in terms of the group of variables (a) by equivalent extreme problems involving groups (b)-(d). These problems form the basis of a phenomenological theory. The theory makes it possible to derive useful relationships among groups (b) and (c). There are two topics discussed: (1) practical application of the theory (with examples), (2) the relationship between socioeconomic modelling and statistical mechanics.
Estimation of Migration Profiles in England and Wales
Authors: Bates J , Bracken I
Published: October 2006

Migration profiles by age have been increasingly used in the analysis of migration data, and a theoretical function has been developed by researchers at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). This paper refines the approach by applying the principles of maximum likelihood to the estimation of the coefficients for the function. This enhances the statistical basis and in particular enables us to carry out tests of similarity between different areas on the basis of the calibrated coefficients. The method is applied to 1971 Census data for the local authorities of England and Wales.
Minimizing Information Loss in Simple Aggregation
Authors: Roy J R , Batten D F , Lesse P F
Published: October 2006

A criterion is presented to indicate a strategy for additively combining corresponding discrete rows and columns of a square array to form an array of reduced size such that the loss of information thereby incurred is minimized. The objective function is expressed in terms of an information loss criterion between the original array and an array of the same size acting as a surrogate for the reduced array. In contrast to the usual application of information theory in planning, where arrays are filled out based on incomplete information, the converse case is implied here, in which a particular partial representation of the array is sought (that is, the aggregated array) which most closely approaches the information content of the original full array. The method is expected to be useful for situations where available large arrays of data need to be appropriately reduced in size so that they can be efficiently used in further computations. Alternatively, the original array may contain current observed data, and the primary aim may be to determine from this array the aggregation scheme to use in future forecasting calculations. Typical applications may include the aggregation of spatial zones, the aggregation of economic sectors in input-output analysis, as well as various clustering problems.
Capital Accumulation and Regional Development: The Case of Denmark
Authors: Jensen-Butler C
Published: October 2006

A review is presented of different approaches to the explanation of regional development in industrialised countries, in the marxist tradition. The approach based upon analysis of the process of capital accumulation is identified as being the most valuable, and a theoretical framework for analysis of regional development, based on Marx's economics, is developed. The framework attempts to combine physical aspects of change in the production process and changes at the level of values. Finally, empirical evidence on regional development in Denmark is presented in support of the theoretical framework. Comparisons are made with patterns of regional development in Britain.
Multinomial Probit with Time-Series Data: Unifying State Dependence and Serial Correlation Models
Authors: Daganzo C F , Sheffi Y
Published: October 2006

This paper develops a general method for treating discrete data sets containing individuals that have made more than one choice under varying stimuli. The multinomial probit model is shown to possess properties that make it very attractive for this application, as with it, it is possible to develop an estimation process that uses all the information in the data, and is both relatively inexpensive and consistent with utility maximization. The method, which is a generalization of Heckman's binary model, can include taste variations and more than two alternatives.
Recession and the Regions in Great Britain, 1976–1980: Analyses of Redundancy Data
Authors: Townsend A R
Published: October 2006

The severe downturn in the British economy in 1980 is apparent in regional data for employment (provisional), redundancies, and unemployment. Five shift-share analyses are used here to explore the data on employment and redundancies, three of them conducted at ‘minimum list heading’ level. The period 1976 to 1979 is one of poor performance by regions of traditional policy interest, whereas the events of 1980 are seen as essentially a national phenomenon. However, bias in the industrial composition of the recession towards manufacturing in general and towards certain individual products is sufficient to focus its very worst effects on Wales, the West Midlands, and the North West.
A Dynamic Generalization of Zipf's Rank-Size Rule
Authors: Roehner B , Wiese K E
Published: October 2006

A dynamic deterministic model of urban growth is proposed, which in its most simple form yields Zipf's law for city-size distribution, and in its general form may account for distributions that deviate strongly from Zipf's law. The qualitative consequences of the model are examined, and a corresponding stochastic model is introduced, which permits, in particular, the study of zero-growth situations.
Estimation of Input-Output Coefficients by Means of Employment Data
Authors: Hinojosa R C , Pigozzi B W
Published: October 2006

A new procedure is presented for estimating input-output tables with limited survey data. Its significance lies in two areas: it demonstrates the efficacy of adjusting biproportionally the Leontief inverse rather than the matrix of technical coefficients and it shows the potential of utilizing independently gathered, less expensive, employment data in the column constraint. This procedure is tested by use of Washington input-output tables; the results compare favorably with conventional RAS adjustments.
Why Poor People Do Not Move: Job Search Behavior and Disequilibrium Amongst Local Labor Markets
Authors: Clark G L , Whiteman J
Published: October 2006

A model of why people do not move between local labor markets is developed by means of a set of concepts derived from the job search and contracts literature. Emphasis is placed on how the environment, in which individuals behave, determines outcomes. It is argued that individuals act rationally, but that in a world of inequality rational behavior can reinforce disequilibrium and the perpetuation of spatial-economic inequality. A hypothetical example of two local labor markets is used to illustrate our argument.
Incomplete Information, Expectation, and Subsequent Decisionmaking
Authors: de Palma A
Published: October 2006

Attention is drawn to situations in which the behaviour of individuals in a society does not result from well-known given laws or rules, but from the decisions and expectations of each individual. From this perspective, an unequal distribution of information will allow each individual to cope with his own sources of uncertainty which determine his freedom of action. Each individual will act according to the perception of a situation and his expectation of the future development of that situation. At the same time, each individual is informed by the decisions of other individuals: this may change the level of information about the situation and the expectation model used. By means of a simple mathematical model a simplified case will be described in which two individuals have to take a decision which will be a function of each individual's expectation. Some unexpected results will be presented and commented upon.
Filter-Down Theory: Location and Technology in the UK Pharmaceutical Industry
Authors: Howells J R L
Published: October 2006

This paper presents an examination of filter-down theory in relation to the location and technological sophistication of manufacturing establishments within the UK pharmaceutical industry. By means of data drawn from a survey of eighty-three pharmaceutical manufacturing companies, the paper considers the technological sophistication both of firms and of plants according to their location as defined by settlement size, degree of urbanization, and their broader centre-periphery regional setting. Given the overall location of the UK pharmaceutical industry, it is shown that there is no significant technological bias in favour of firms or plants located in larger settlements, in more urbanized areas, or within more centrally located regions. In part this result was associated with the decentralized location of manufacturing units controlled by large technologically advanced corporate organizations. The survey data also revealed that on an intracorporate basis there was no evidence that more distant plants, in relation to their main innovation or headquarters location, tended to be less technologically sophisticated.
Spatial Aggregation in Multiregional Input-Output Models
Authors: Blair P , Miller R E
Published: October 2006

This study continues the investigations into effects of spatial aggregation in connected, several-region input-output models that were initially reported upon in Miller and Blair (1980; 1981) for an interregional input-output model. In the present paper our interest is in the error that is introduced into a multiregional input-output model through aggregation of regions. As in the earlier paper, we investigate the question by means of both hypothetical and real data. In the present study, these are (1) randomly generated multiregional data incorporating varying degrees of regional linkage and (2) actual 1963 US multiregional data. To allow some comparison with the interregional experiments, the data for the random experiments in the present paper are derived from our original randomly generated interregional data. The same levels of spatial interconnectedness as in the interregional experiments are also used here, and the same measures of aggregation error are employed. As in the interregional case, we conclude that spatial aggregation in multiregional input-output models does not necessarily lead to unacceptable error.
Cost-Benefit Analysis of Wetland Drainage
Authors: Bowers J K
Published: October 2006

The wetland areas of England are under imminent threat of drainage for agricultural improvement. The immediate cause is the local drainage surveys produced under the Water Act 1973. Problems identified in these surveys are subjected to cost-benefit appraisal. Examination of a selection shows that these appraisals are technically defective and result in an overstatement of the benefits and in an overinvestment in land drainage. The main defects are: first, a failure to assess amenity and conservation losses; second, use of prices that contain a substantial element of income transfer which is not netted out; third, a failure to properly calculate the rate of land conversion—a crucial variable; fourth, the project appraisal period is arbitrarily chosen or treated as a variable; fifth, the use of theoretical rather than expected agricultural yields; sixth, the level of flood protection aimed at is too high for the stated objective; and, last, anticipated flood losses are not deducted.
The Corner-Shop to Supermarket Transition in Retailing: The Beginnings of Empirical Evidence
Authors: Wilson A G , Oulton M J
Published: October 2006

It was proposed in an earlier paper that a catastrophe-theory-like mechanism might explain the relatively sudden transition from corner-shop retailing to a supermarket system. In this paper, some extensions of this mechanism and some alternatives are presented; but most importantly the first steps are taken in relating these theoretical explorations to empirical data. We consider change in Nottingham from 1956 to 1979.
Analysis of Gross Migration Profiles in England and Wales: Some Developments in Classification
Authors: Bracken I , Bates J
Published: October 2006

In this paper we describe the development and application of two approaches to the analysis of age and sex specific interarea migration. The data relate to local authority areas in England and Wales. These approaches are developments of established migration profile-fitting and cluster analytic methods. The paper shows how these methods have been used to develop complementary classifications from which potentially valuable criteria for migration analysis can emerge. The work described is part of a wider project concerned with the development of methods to improve the official estimation of internal migration in England in the context of local area population forecasting.
An Alternative Formulation for Spatial-Interaction Modeling
Authors: Tobler W
Published: October 2006

Elementary geometric assumptions are used to derive a spatial-interaction model in which places are related to each other through a set of simultaneous linear equations. The system has simple properties with respect to aggregation and turnover, yet incorporates spatial competition, adjacency, and effects of geographic shadowing. The objective function satisfied by the model reduces congestion and minimizes the per capita work; solves a quadratic transportation-problem and fulfils in-sum and out-sum constraints. The associated Lagrangians can be interpreted as pushes and pulls, or as shadow prices. A spatially continuous version of the model consists of coupled elliptical partial differential equations with Neumann boundary conditions, solvable by numerical methods. With migration data from the United States of America the model yields an amazingly good fit, better than existing models and with fewer free parameters. Inversion of the model yields an estimate of distances between regions. In-movement rates are predicted from out-movement rates in the model.
Watershed Land-Use Planning under Uncertainty
Authors: Goulter I C , Wenzel H G , Hopkins L D
Published: October 2006

A model of watershed land-use planning is formulated that improves on existing models by recognizing that land-use decisions have uncertain outcomes and that land uses change over time. Implications of recognizing the distinction between land-use decisions and their uncertain outcomes are discussed. The land-use changes are modelled using a Markov process. Because of the computational difficulties in determining the return associated with the complete range of possible decision sets, a heuristic technique is required. A heuristic search procedure based on stochastic dynamic programming is described.
Long-Term Urban Trends in Developing Countries: Some Further Econometric Results
Authors: Ancot J-P , Kuiper J H , Paelinck J H P
Published: October 2006

Urban trends in developing countries have been studied in broad terms only, which has led to improbable projections for the future. In this paper, a two-equation model has been drawn up and tested by advanced econometric methods to pinpoint the role of explanatory factors and to discover possible trend reversals. Results on both scores have been positive.
Implementation and Computational Issues for Combined Models of Location, Destination, Mode, and Route Choice
Authors: Boyce D E , Chon K S , Lee Y J , Lin K T , LeBlanc L J
Published: October 2006

A unified approach to deriving models of urban location, destination, mode, and route choice is illustrated, and an algorithm based on Evans's approach and the Lagrange multiplier procedure is proposed. By examining derivatives of the Lagrangian function, we show that the Newton—Raphson technique can be implemented for finding the optimal Lagrange multipliers for these models. Procedures for identifying values of generalized cost-function coefficients are studied.
Towards a Process Model of Office-Location Decisionmaking
Authors: Edwards Lynne
Published: October 2006

In this paper the author traces the development of a hypothetical model of location choice for service-sector establishments. She argues that no adequate model exists of this process, although evidence is available concerning the locational criteria important to service firms. Similarly, there exist models of decision behaviour in related circumstances—industrial, administrative, and personal location—from which helpful information may be drawn. Normative and behavioural modes of approach to model construction are examined, and it is argued that the latter provides a more appropriate context for the present study.

The process model comprises two main phases: the decision to relocate and the choice of new premises. Attention here focuses on the latter, notably the processes of, and influences acting upon, the search for new premises, and their evaluation prior to choice. Internal and external pressures which may develop at a particular location are identified, and the action of organisational goals and policy upon location behaviour introduced.

Finally the influence of establishment character upon decision behaviour is discussed, and a classification system proposed to enable the grouping of establishments of similar internal character and decision behaviour.
On Lee's Markovian Entropy-Maximization Model for Population Distribution
Authors: Kapur J N
Published: October 2006

The conclusions drawn by Lee for his first case, in a paper describing a Markovian entropy-maximizing model of population distribution, are found to be incorrect. It is, however, shown that his model for this case always leads to a global maximum value of entropy, a result which cannot be guaranteed for his third case. This result is then generalized to a more universal measure of entropy. Markovian measures of directed divergence are defined and used to get minimum discrimination distributions.
Economic and Spatial Aspects of von Thünen's Factor Intensity Theory
Authors: Kellerman A
Published: October 2006

Von Thünen's intensity theory, or the formulation of optimum intensity of land uses, has been proposed for several economic conditions using classical, neoclassical, and general approaches. The theory may also be presented through the development of intensity curves, producing the missing spatial element of the theory. The several possible forms of the intensity curve have different relations with von Thünen's crop-theory rent curves, thus producing spatially expanding or shrinking isolated states.
A Nonlinear Equation Framework for Solving Network Equilibrium Problems
Authors: Fisk C
Published: October 2006

The author presents a general framework for formulating network equilibrium problems in which the equilibrium conditions are given by a system of nonlinear equations. Existence and uniqueness results are presented, and iterative solution techniques with well-defined convergence properties are suggested. For illustrative purposes, these techniques are applied to a specific two-mode equilibrium model; a discussion comparing some aspects of this approach with other existing approaches is included.
Comparison of the Economic Impacts of Six Growth Centers on Their Surrounding Rural Areas in Asia
Authors: Wong S T , Saigol K M
Published: October 2006

The economic impacts of six growth centers on their surrounding rural areas are examined and compared. The six growth centers are: Chiangmai (Thailand), Surabaya (Indonesia), Jaffna (Sri Lanka), Mariveles (Philippines), Kandy (Sri Lanka), and Taxila-Wah (Pakistan).

An evaluation is attempted of the spread or trickle-down process in the six case studies, as reflected by the income generated in each growth center and the income multipliers obtained in the surrounding rural areas. The hypothesis advanced for testing is that the spending generated by the different sectors of the economy tends to spread unevenly within the growth space, being greater in the zones nearer to the center than further away from it, and that the income multipliers so derived have only a negligible or no impact in the rural areas. It is further postulated that the income generated by the spending category in the growth center and the income multipliers obtained are independent of the size of the center.

The results of the six case studies support, in general, the above hypothesis with regards to the predominance of backwash to income spread in the peripheries of the growth centers. The size of the center does not seem to have a bearing on the magnitude of the income generated or of the multipliers obtained in the surrounding rural areas.
Barriers and Foresight in International Labor-Migration
Authors: Schaeffer P
Published: October 2006

In the presence of barriers to mobility, migration behavior depends importantly on a worker's planning horizon. Although a myopic worker will accept the job offer promising the greatest immediate utility, a worker with foresight also values the opportunities that a job offers, to gain access to more highly valued alternatives. A model of labor migration based on these ideas, shows the importance of institutional arrangements and lends itself to the discussion of policy measures to influence labor migration.
Lower Order Cities and National Urbanization Policies: China and India
Authors: Banerjee T , Schenk S
Published: October 2006

In this paper, we examine the urbanization history and policies of China and India with a special emphasis on the lower order cities. We consider the proposition that, as the developing countries continue to urbanize at a rapid pace, the lower order cities can play a potentially effective role in guiding future urbanization and in securing a balanced economic and spatial development. Through an examination of the urbanization records, policies, and performance of the lower order cities in these two countries we discuss the ‘top-down’ versus the ‘bottom-up’ approaches to urbanization strategy and national development. We conclude by discussing the nature of the differences between the urbanization policies of China and India and the transferability of the Chinese experience to other contexts.
The Effect of Selected Sociodemographic Characteristics on Daily Travel-Activity Behavior
Authors: Pas E I
Published: October 2006

The hypothesis that daily travel-activity behavior is influenced by the role, life-cycle, and life-style attributes of individuals and households is examined. Daily travel-activity behavior is described by a five-state categorical variable which is defined by analytical classification of a sample of daily travel-activity patterns. The explanatory variables used in this study are age, marital status, gender, employment status, education level, presence of young children, auto-ownership, income, and residential density.

Parametric maximum likelihood models of multiway contingency tables are used to test the hypothesized relationships. The statistical analyses confirm that personal daily travel-activity behavior is significantly influenced by the role, life-cycle, and life-style characteristics of individuals and their households. The statistical results also demonstrate that specific sociodemographically defined segments of the urban travel market have differential likelihoods of undertaking particular daily travel-activity patterns.