bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
"Careers in Crime": The F.B.I. Story
Authors: Ward Paul
Published: March 2007

Recent UNIFORM CRIME REPORTS of the F.B.I. have included a new section called "Careers in Crime." This article presents a crit ical analysis of the data presented in that section. The analysis con cludes that the data are presented in a tendentious manner designed to reflect the ideas about the nature of the crime problem held by director of the F.B.I., John Edgar Hoover. An attempt is made to provide the reader with a more balanced appraisal of the statistics in question and to indicate ways in which the available information could be presented in a more objective fashion.
The Effect of Incentives Upon Aptitude Scores of White and Negro Inmates
Authors: Wenk Ernst A. , Rozynko Vitali V. , Sarbin Theodore R. , Robison James O.
Published: March 2007

California Youth Authority wards admitted to one Reception Guidance Center were retested under three conditions to deter mine the effect of incentives upon aptitude test performance. The study originated from the assumption that motivational factors might account for performance decrement on nonverbal tests, especially among minority ethnic groups. Material reward was found to provide superior inducement to test score elevation as compared to verbal encouragement or mere retest, but the effects were slight and not contingent on ethnic status. Results suggest either that insufficient incentive was applied or differing cultural experiences generate score biases regardless of motivational state.
The Use of Parole Prediction with Institutionalized Narcotic Addicts
Authors: Inciardi James A.
Published: March 2007

This report describes the application of the parole prediction model to two cohorts of parolees with histories of narcotic addic tion and suggests an evaluation strategy for determining the relative effectiveness of different treatment approaches for dif ferent types of addicts. Narcotic users released to the supervision of the New York State Division of Parole were followed for one year on parole. From this experience, the configuration of variables most related to successful parole outcome were derived. The find ings of a complementary study of California addict parolees tended to enhance the predictive ability of the over all model, although difficulty was encountered in determining the predictive stability of the suggested variables.
Intentions and the Structures of Attitudes among Inmates and Noninmates
Authors: Rice Ronald G.
Published: March 2007

Attitude measures were used to predict inmate and nominate status for six samples. Inmates were correctly classified from non inmates in 88 per cent of the cases. Noninmates were correctly classified in 86 per cent of the cases. Group differences in attitudes were significant at the .001 level of confidence. The results sug gest that inmates may be more estranged from society and self- centered in their attitudes than noninmates. It was concluded that attitude measures are potentially useful as one method of evaluat ing correctional treatment and training methods, selecting or classi fying inmates, and researching criminological concepts.
Implications of the Conceptual Level Matching Model for Treatment of Delinquents
Authors: Brill Ronald
Published: March 2007

Research has clearly demonstrated that there are individual differences among delinquents and that there are great differences among treatment ap proaches. This paper reviews a theoretical framework, the Conceptual Level Matching Model, which appears to offer a coherent basis for coordinating offender differences with the diversity of existing treatment approaches in order to maximize benefits for the offenders and for society. Within this model, individual differences are described as falling along a continuum of conceptual complexity, going from concrete to abstract, while the aspect of the environment most relevant to this continuum is seen to be degree of struc ture. From this framework, it is possible to predict theoretically "matched" or "mismatched" environments for individuals of known conceptual level. Evidence for the usefulness of this model in educational and therapeutic ap plications is reviewed and data are presented from a recent application to delinquency treatment. In this study, the theoretical expectations of the CL Matching Model were supported by behavioral adjustment results during and after residential treatment. The results of this study appear to have clear implications for treatment practice and further research. Several of these im plications are discussed.
Treatment Destruction Techniques
Authors: Gottfredson Michael R.
Published: March 2007

The conventional wisdom in criminology is that treatment programs have been found to be ineffective. This paper outlines several methods that may be used to defend this wisdom: (1) contaminate the treatment, (2) stress the criterion problem, (3) appeal to common sense, (4) demonstrate that re habilitation is premised on faulty theory, and (5) seek universals. In addition, methods for uncovering the tyranny inherent in all treatment programs are discussed briefly.
Selecting Delinquents for Adjudication
Authors: Cohen Lawrence E. , Kluegel James R.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the influence of discriminatory factors and legal criteria on intake officers' decisions to treat a case formally versus informally in two juvenile courts which differ in their legal philosophy (therapeutic v. due process). Because earlier research on intake decision making has been charac terized by inadequate analytic techniques, this study analyzes multivariate relationships among qualitative variables using Goodman's method of log-lin ear analysis to identify the factors related to intake decisions in the Denver and Memphis juvenile courts. No support is found for the contention that race and class bias affect this decision in either court. Rather, our data indicate that sex, court philosophy, and type of offense have the most influence on the intake unit's case treatment decision. Prior record and being idle versus employed/in school were also found to influence this decision. The inconsistent findings of previous research are attributed to methodological inadequacies.
Diversion in Juvenile Justice: What Hath been Wrought
Authors: Lemert Edwin M.
Published: March 2007

The origins of diversion in juvenile justice are discussed, as are the meaning of and various rationales for diversion. Judicious nonintervention is clarified. The diver sion movement has to a large extent been preempted or coopted by law enforcement agencies, in part by police because of their dominant, narrowly conceived social control function. More particularly, diversion has offered police a solution to the dilemma posed by pressures for control and the decarceration of status offenders. Questions are raised about the future of diversion in the juvenile justice system, drawing on English and Scottish experiences.
Deterrent and Experiential Effects in Perceptual Deterrence Research: a Replication and Extension
Authors: Minor W.William , Harry Joseph
Published: March 2007

The present research is a replication of the Saltzman et al. study concerning deterrent and experiential effects in perceptual deterrence research. Despite certain design differences in the two studies (e.g., we used a shorter lag between Time One and Time Two), our findings replicate theirs in that (1) perceptions of risk are not particularly stable, even over a period as short as three months, and (2) experiential effects are consistently larger and more often significant than deterrent effects. Both in our data and in the Saltzman et al. data, we find interactions which specify the experiential effect as most likely to occur among those with initially high perceptions of risk (a naiveté effect) rather than among those for whom a given form of behavior is new (a novelty effect), as Saltzman et al. had contended. We conclude that the substitution of experiential effects for deterrent effects is not justified, that studies which have done so are moot on the subject of deterrence, and that longitudinal designs may be essential for resolution of the causal order problem.
Applications and a Generalization of Mimic Models to Criminological Research
Authors: SMITH DOUGLAS A. , PATTERSON E. BRITT
Published: March 2007

This article examines models involving multiple causes of a single latent endogenous variable. Such models, known as MIMIC models, combine psychometric and econometric features into a single unifying framework. Using an example concerning individual's subjective probability of victimization, we show how to estimate parameters in MIMIC models. Moreover, we present a formally equivalent generalization of such models that make explicit a number of implicit restrictions in standard MIMIC models. We show how to implement the more general MIMIC model using Joreskog's LISREL program and discuss the utility of such models to criminological research.
Prison Crowding: Public Attitudes Toward Strategies of Population Control
Authors: SKOVRON SANDRA EVANS , SCOTT JOSEPH E. , CULLEN FRANCIS T.
Published: March 2007

This article examines public attitudes toward policies to reduce prison crowding. Public attitudes were assessed through telephone surveys of adult residents of two major midwestern cities: Cincinnati and Columbus, Ohio. Substantial public support for community-based corrections and incentive good time was found. Prison construction received only moderate support while high levels of public disapproval were found for shortening sentences and increasing parole board authority. Probit regression analysis of the relationship between respondent characteristics and support for policies to reduce prison crowding revealed that attitudinal variables were more consistently related to public opinion than were demographic variables. The broader issue of the relationship between public attitudes and prison policy is also raised and discussed within the context of this research.
Juvenile Arbitration: Net Widening and Other Unintended Consequences
Authors: Ezell Mark
Published: March 2007

This study seeks to determine whether a juvenile arbitration program can alter the reach of the court in a unique fashion. Using an interrupted time-series design with a comparison group, it shows that the preprogram trend of increasing rates of judicial handling shifted to a decreasing pattern but that the rates of judicial supervision continued to climb. In addition, there were changes in the court's decision making relating to probation and commitment to residential programs associated with the implementation of the arbitration program. The author concludes that this new style of diversion, one that is sanction oriented, results in larger numbers of youth being in the system longer, subject to system requirements and control.
Property Crime and the Routine Activities of Individuals
Authors: MASSEY JAMES L. , KROHN MARVIN D. , BONATI LISA M.
Published: March 2007

The risk of property crime victimization is examined from a routine activities approach using data from six neighborhoods in Atlanta, Georgia. Indicators of the concepts of motivated offenders, suitable targets, and capable guardians are identified, and their individual and combined explanatory power are examined. The findings reveal that measures of neighborhood crime and housing type are the only variables that consistently relate to victimization in the hypothesized direction; employment status is the only guardianship measure that has the predicted effect on victimization. The analyses provide limited support for the routine activities approach, but are also consistent with hypotheses derived from other theoretical perspectives on criminal victimizations.
Punishment and Social Structure at the State Level: A Cross-Sectional Comparison of 1970 and 1980
Authors: MICHALOWSKI RAYMOND J. , PEARSON MICHAEL A.
Published: March 2007

In recent years, much of the sociological analysis concerning the relationship between punishment and social structure has centered around theories of fiscal constraint and penal discipline. The fiscal constraint model suggests that levels of imprisonment will be sensitive to levels of available public revenue. The penal discipline model posits a relationship between unemployment and imprisonment that exists independent of rates of crime. These two propositions, with controls for region, crime, race, and urbanization, are tested using a cross-sectional analysis of the 50 states for 1970 and 1980. Contrary to the two theories, the findings indicate that neither public revenue nor level of unemployment were significantly related to interstate variation in rates of imprisonment. The distinction between southern and non-southern states appeared as the most significant predictor of imprisonment. Analyses of non-southern states indicated that only the rate of violent crime and the proportion of black males in the population were significantly correlated with variations in rates of imprisonment, though the relationship between revenue and imprisonment strengthened somewhat between 1970 and 1980.
Testing the Core Empirical Implications of Gottfredson and Hirschi's General Theory of Crime
Authors: GRASMICK HAROLD G. , TITTLE CHARLES R. , BURSIK ROBERT J. , ARNEKLEV BRUCE J.
Published: March 2007

In A General Theory of Crime, Gottfredson and Hirschi propose that low self-control, in interaction with criminal opportunity, is the major cause of crime. The research reported in this article attempts to test this argument while closely following the nominal definitions presented by Gottfredson and Hirschi. A factor analysis of items designed to measure low self-control is consistent with their contention that the trait is unidimensional. Further, the proposed interaction effect is found for self-reported acts of both fraud and force (their definition of crime). Inconsistent with the theory are (a) the finding that criminal opportunity has a significant main effect, beyond its interaction with low self-control, on self-reported crime and (b) the substantial proportion of variance in crime left unexplained by the theoretical variables. Suggestions are offered for modifying and expanding the theory.
The Situational Context of Violent Female Offending
Authors: SOMMERS IRA , BASKIN DEBORAH R.
Published: March 2007

The study examines the elements involved in female perpetration of robbery and aggravated assault including motive, victim precipitation, victim-offender relationship, accomplices, precipitating circumstances, preparation, and use of weapons. The data suggest that there are clear underlying differences in the perpetration of violent crimes. They show that robbery is more frequently planned, more impersonal, and more instrumental than assault. Assault was clearly an impulsive criminal offense. However, it was not totally irrational. Each woman's actions were a function of the victim's behavior and the implications of that behavior for defending one's well-being or public self-concept. The data indicate that lifestyle factors (e.g., peer association, serious drug use) are associated with participation in robbery. The findings also suggest that the women's lifestyles and routine activities increased their probability of exposure to situations that were associated with more serious disputes. In addition to differences in the underlying motivation or meaning of violence, there appear to be different behavioral patterns within the study samples. Women involved in robbery, particularly those involved in both robbery and assault, were disproportionately involved in other criminal activities, particularly drug sales, and were more deeply entrenched in addictive drug use.
Beyond Positivism: Learning from Contextual Integrated Strategies
Authors: BRAITHWAITE JOHN
Published: March 2007

Good criminologists are interpretively flexible, searching to read situations from the different angles illuminated by multiple theories. Plural understandings of a crime problem stimulate a disparate range of action possibilities that can be integrated into a hedged, mutually reinforcing package of preventive policies. Positivist criminology has its uses in informing the kind of research-policy interface advanced. Its limitation is that it focuses on short-term, decontextualized policies that are intentionally disentangled from integrated policy packages. This when it is long-term, dynamically responsive, and contextualized, integrated assaults that are more likely to bear fruit. Some suggestions are made on how to reform criminology so that its creative and evaluative focus is more directed at what Bateson in 1972 called “systemic wisdom.” The alternative is to settle for a positivism that almost inevitably leads to a policy analysis of despair about the intractability of the crime problem. That “nothing works” is not an empirically established fact, but an artifact of the epistemology of a science with a particular structure. This structure can be reformed.
Sex Differences In Crime: Do Means and Within-Sex Variation Have Similar Causes?
Authors: ROWE DAVID C. , VAZSONYI ALEXANDER T. , FLANNERY DANIEL J.
Published: March 2007

The mean level of delinquency is generally greater in males than in females. This article investigates whether the determinants of this mean sex difference are the same as those of delinquency variation within-sex. The first analytic approach focused on variables. A variable that explained more variation among individuals in delinquency also had a larger mean difference between males and females. The correlates of delinquency were also similar in males and females. The second analytic approach used individuals as the unit of analysis. In a structural equation model, a single latent trait could explain most of the sex difference in the manifest variables of delinquency, impulsivity, rebelliousness, and deceitfulness. The mean difference in delinquency between males and females may arise because males are more exposed to these common etiologic factors than are females.
The Hawthorne Misunderstanding (and How to Get the Hawthorne Effect in Action Research)
Authors: GOTTFREDSON GARY D.
Published: March 2007

The Hawthorne relay-assembly research has been misinterpreted as showing that interest in employees' well-being is sufficient to stimulate increased performance. In the original studies of this phenomenon, the assemblers of relays received considerable attention, but they also wanted to improve their performance and they were given feedback on how they performed. As a result, they learned to produce more relays. The “Hawthorne misunderstanding” is common in criminology, criminal justice, and other fields because authors have failed to recognize this explanation of improved work output. Producing real Hawthorne effects—that is, improvements in the performance of people—is important in action research, and such improvements are often the aims of scientists who pursue this form of research. To produce Hawthorne effects, foster the acceptance of performance goals or standards, provide feedback on performance, and remove obstacles to improved performance.
Drug Treatment for Juvenile Offenders: Some Good and Bad News
Authors: SEALOCK MIRIAM D. , GOTTFREDSON DENISE C. , GALLAGHER CATHERINE A.
Published: March 2007

Approximately 700 substance-abusing youthful offenders were assigned to either a two-month residential substance abuse treatment program group or a comparison group. Upon completion of the program, the residential treatment group youths were placed in either the treatment or comparison group for a four-month community aftercare phase. Youths who participated in the residential portion of the program reported significantly decreased drug use and delinquency and increased cognitive decision-making skills and demonstrated a longer period of time from entry into the study until rearrest than control youths. Results for the aftercare segment of the program show that the positive gains made while in the residential program were not bolstered through aftercare. Aftercare youths reported more delinquent behavior and demonstrated more participation in drug-related crime than control subjects. Aftercare youths did, however, exhibit less participation in crimes of an interpersonal nature.
A Test of Reciprocal Causal Relationships among Parental Supervision, Affective Ties, and Delinquency
Authors: JANG SUNG JOON , SMITH CAROLYN A.
Published: March 2007

Current family-delinquency research suggests that the relationships between parenting and delinquency should be viewed from interactional and developmental perspectives. The relationship between parent and child is thought to change over time, partly as a function of reciprocal causal influences between them. In this study, using panel data from a representative sample of 838 urban adolescents, the authors test the hypothesis that parenting and delinquency are reciprocally related. They also hypothesize that two central parenting dimensions, affective ties and supervision, are bidirectionally related. It is found that delinquency and parental supervision are reciprocally related, whereas affective ties appear to be a consequence rather than a cause of delinquency, at least by middle adolescence. In general, the interrelationships among these variables are more complex than those suggested by earlier unidirectional theories, and they underline the importance of interactional perspectives in understanding the interrelationship of adolescent behavior and parenting.
A General Strain Theory of Community Differences in Crime Rates
Authors: AGNEW ROBERT
Published: March 2007

This article draws on Agnew's general strain theory to explain community differences in crime rates. After reviewing the communities and crime research, the author discusses the ways in which community-level variables contribute to strain, including the failure to achieve positively valued goals and the loss of positive stimuli/presentation of negative stimuli. The ways in which community-level variables condition the impact of strain on crime are then examined.
Burnt at the High Stakes
Authors: Kohn Alfie
Published: March 2007

Standardized tests fail to assess the skills and dispositions that matter most, whereas norm-referenced and multiple-choice tests are particularly inadequate as indicators of student learning or school quality. High-stakes testing, which relies on rewards and punishments to increase scores, creates a system that is unfair as well as destructive to learning. Schools that manage to improve their test results may well be doing so at the expense of meaningful instruction, in the process driving good educators out of the profession. Several common defenses of high-stakes testing are considered in this article, including claims that this strategy is necessary for addressing educational inequities. It is argued that an emphasis on tougher standards, accountability, and standardized testing is uniquely harmful to low-income and minority students.
Collaborative and Noncollaborative Partnership Structures in Teacher Education
Authors: Lasley Thomas J. , Matczynski Thomas J. , Williams James A.
Published: March 2007

Partnerships take many forms in education. Two partnerships are described in this paper: noncollaborative and collaborative. Relationships between colleges or schools within the university or between school districts and those responsible for teacher education are often noncollaborative. Each partner acts independently until the exigencies of the moment necessitate communication and planning. Collaborative partnerships are more difficult to structure and maintain because they demand more dialogue and collective goal setting; they also require more institutional compromise, but their potential for strengthening educational programming is substantial.
Economic Growth: The Last Hundred Years
Authors: Paige D. C. , Blackaby F. T. , Freund S.
Published: March 2007

Since the war the economies of some developed countries appear to have been growing exceptionally fast (table 1, chart 1). From 1950 onwards six countries have shown growth rates of 3 to 6 per cent; four of these have shown rates of over 3 per cent since 1954, by which time the effects of post-war recovery might be expected to have been over. These rates are nearly all more than twice as high as the long-term averages of the countries concerned. Does this imply that they are some kind of spurt rates which will inevitably revert, sooner or later, to more ‘normal’ rates of growth?
The FBI Industrial Trends Enquiry
Authors: Shepherd J. R.
Published: March 2007

For some six years now the Federation of British Industries has been circulating a questionnaire to its members on industrial trends and prospects. The aim of this article is to assess the usefulness of the answers. The only practicable way to do this is to find a method of comparing the FBI results with official economic statistics. The FBI results will be helpful if they can be used to anticipate, confirm, supplement or on occasions correct the official series.
Forecasting Imports
Authors: Godley W. A. H. , Shepherd J. R.
Published: March 2007

Two methods are used in the preparation of the official import forecasts in Britain. There is the detailed commodity-by-commodity approach, designed to bring in any special factors or information about particular commodities. There is also the aggregate approach, which attempts to find relationships between the volume of imports and various national expenditure series. This note describes a series of experiments conducted to investigate and, if possible, improve the second of these two approaches. It does not attempt to provide a full theory of import behaviour. It is simply concerned to find a method of import forecasting that works reasonably satisfactorily over a short period of 1-2 years.
Some Characteristics of Unemployment
Authors: Gillion C. , Black I.
Published: March 2007

Unemployment in the United Kingdom has now probably begun to rise. This note is based on an analysis of the figures during the last 10-15 years; its purpose is to show—mainly in chart form— some of the characteristics of unemployment in this country.
Short-Term Forecasting of Housing Investment: A Note
Authors: Nobay A. R.
Published: March 2007

This note discusses methods of forecasting investment in housing in Britain for twelve to eighteen months ahead. The first section discusses the figures for housing investment, and the way in which they are compiled. The second section sets out what is at present done at the Institute in the preparation of quarterly forecasts. The third section describes a preliminary exploration of more satisfactory ways of forecasting private housing demand.
Forecasting Exports and Imports: Introduction
Authors: Major R. L.
Published: March 2007

The National Institute is currently studying ways of improving its methods of short-term economic forecasting. The two articles which follow report on some of the recent work undertaken in two parts of the field, namely exports and imports.

In the case of exports, our methods hitherto have been rather subjective. The first article is the account of a more rigorous procedure proposed for one part, though a very important one, of total exports of goods, namely exports of manufactures to industrial countries. Attempts to find procedures of analogous rigour for exports to primary producing countries have, so far, failed to throw up anything very useful. For imports, our procedure has for some time been rigorous, in the sense of making use of postulated econometric relationships. Thus the second article does not so much propose a new method as elaborate and modify existing methods in a way which may prove to be more satisfactory.
Errors in National Institute Forecasts of the Balance of Payments
Authors: Major R. L. , Surrey M. J. C.
Published: March 2007

A recent issue of the National Institute Economic Review contained an article in which errors in the National Institute's forecasts of the national income accounts were analysed. One of those who reviewed the article criticised it on the grounds that the author ‘does not make an assessment of the balance of payments forecasts, which really is like putting on Lear without the King’. On the strength of his own ‘fairly crude’ comparison between these forecasts of the balance of payments and the official estimates of what actually happened, he went on to suggest that the errors in the former in the ‘crucial’ years of 1960, 1967, and 1968 were ‘large enough to … make one doubt whether balance of payments forecasting, whether short- or medium-term, is really a possible or worthwhile exercise’. The present article, already planned when the earlier one appeared, is an attempt to fill the gap on the stage. It aims to provide a rather more refined basis for judging the worth of such forecasts, and perhaps at the same time to improve the prospect that some of the grosser errors of the past may be avoided in the future.
Some Aspects of Unemployment and the Labour Market, 1966-71
Authors: Bowers J. K. , Cheshire P. C. , Webb A. E. , Weeden R.
Published: March 2007

The level of unemployment has recently risen to a level not previously experienced during the post-war period. Most of the increase has happened in two fairly sharp movements, the first in 1966-7 and the second in 1970-1. A measure of the scale of the problem is given by the following comparison: in early 1966 the number of wholly unemployed males in Great Britain stood at a little over 200,000; and by the end of 1971 the figure had risen to over 700,000. (See chart 1, where unemployment is on an inverted scale.)
Net Trade: A Note on Measuring Changes in the Competitiveness of British Industry in Foreign Trade
Authors: Campbell-Boross L.F. , Morgan Ann D.
Published: March 2007

Britain has traditionally been a large net importer of basic foodstuffs, raw materials and fuels, the resulting deficit being covered by net exports of manufactures and by invisible earnings. The net export position in manufactures was the result of both large exports and very small imports. Since the war, however, and more especially during the 1960s, there has been a radical change. British exports of manufactured goods have lagged behind the growth of world exports, while imports of manufactures have risen extremely rapidly. Between 1963 and 1972, almost three quarters of the rise in visible imports, measured in balance of payments terms, is attributable to manufactured goods. Thus net exports of manufactures have barely risen in absolute terms, and their size in relation to total exports of manufactured goods has diminished sharply.
Inflation and the Personal Income Tax
Authors: Allen R. I. G. , Savage D.
Published: March 2007

Although it has long been recognised that inflation may have important consequences for the level and distribution of the burden of a progressive personal income tax, it is only with the recent sustained acceleration in the rate of increase of the general price level that these relationships have become matters of serious concern. A number of Western economies, including Iceland (in 1965), the Netherlands (1972) and, most recently, Canada (1974), have introduced schemes for linking the main parameters of the income tax to an index of consumer prices, and considerable interest has been shown in the possibility of a similar reform in this country.
Primary Products: Prospects To 1985
Authors: Ray G.F.
Published: March 2007

Prospects for supplies and prices are the subject of this article. No major supply shortages are foreseen for the next ten years. Dependence on OPEC oil will be reduced by production from the North Sea and elsewhere. Other commodity cartels are unlikely to have lasting success. Oil prices are forecast in two alternatives for 1985, representing the two extreme values of the possible wide range. Prices of food and industrial materials are projected on the basis of the lower oil price scenario and on assumptions concerning world economic growth, trade and inflation. They are expected to rise in the coming ten years faster than prices of manufactured goods.
The ‘Real’ Price of Crude Oil
Authors: Ray G. F.
Published: March 2007

This note traces the course of the price of crude oil back to 1880 and attempts to assess the changes in its purchasing value by deflating it by the export prices of manufactured goods. The purchasing power of the posted price of crude oil declined through the 1960s, even without allowance for significant discounts, and then trebled in 1974. The sixfold nominal rise of the oil price from 1972 to 1977 compares with a 150 per cent increase in the prices of other primary products, and a rise of about 75 per cent in the price level of manufactured goods in world trade.
The Channels of Monetary Influence: a Survey of the Empirical Evidence
Authors: Savage David
Published: March 2007

Over the years a large number of empirical studies have investigated the effects of monetary factors on various forms of private expenditure. This article surveys the evidence which has accumulated with a view to throwing some light on the basic issue of how, and how strongly, monetary policies influence real economic activity in this country. The evidence is varied and often contradictory and only tentative conclusions can be drawn.
Real Prices of Energy
Authors: Morel Jenny
Published: March 2007

During the last eight years there have been dramatic increases in the world price of oil. However, the incentive to use less energy comes from increases in the ‘real’ prices paid by consumers for fuel and the increases in these prices have been far smaller. This note examines the changes since 1973 in real prices for different fuels in different sectors in the UK and compares these price movements with those in some other Western developed countries.
The World Economy
Authors: Morgan Julian , Pain Nigel
Published: March 2007

Economic growth slowed in most of the major industrialised countries over the course of last year. The slowdown has been particularly apparent in continental Europe, with GDP falling in the fourth quarter in Germany, France and Italy. Early indications suggest that activity has been subdued in the first quarter of this year, with industrial production declining in Germany, Spain and Sweden, the provisional UK figures recording the lowest per quarter growth since 1992, and a continued deterioration apparent in indicators of the general business climate in Europe. We have made a significant downward adjustment to our previous forecasts for Europe, with EU-wide GDP now projected to rise by only 1½ per cent this year, after growth of 2½ per cent in 1995. We expect growth to pick-up over the course of the year as the contractionary effects of ongoing inventory adjustment come to an end and as the effects from a more relaxed monetary stance begin to outweigh those from ongoing fiscal consolidation. Recent currency movements should help to stimulate external demand in Germany and France, with the D-mark having depreciated against the US dollar by around 7 per cent over the past four months. Private sector expenditure is also likely to benefit from the recent sustained appreciation of equity prices in most national stockmarkets, with prices at the end of April having risen by over 11 per cent in Germany, France, Italy and Spain since the beginning of the year.
Moving Towards EMU: The Challenges Ahead
Authors: Arrowsmith John , Taylor Christopher
Published: March 2007

The transition to monetary union in Europe, which began formally when Stage 2 started in January 1993, is now well over half way to completion, according to the deadlines set in the Maastricht Treaty. The first decisions on Stage 3 are approaching fast, yet the prospects for its commencement are still very unclear, and many important practical and policy issues are still in doubt. This article provides an overview of the EMU debate, covering the latest developments on convergence (Section 1), the main institutional matters still to be resolved before Stage 3 begins (Section 2), the key problems awaiting policy-makers in Stage 3 (Section 3), and finally the controversy about the economic rationale of EMU (Section 4). It concludes that the UK Government was wise to defer a decision on whether to participate in Stage 3 until the implications became clearer, but that it would be unwise to abandon the option, which it presently risks doing, by design or default.
A Reconsideration of the Optimum Currency Area Approach: The Role of External Shocks and Labour Mobility
Authors: Gros Daniel
Published: March 2007

The external shocks emphasised by the standard Optimum Currency Area approach (i.e. shocks to exports) have surprisingly little influence on employment and unemployment in most member countries of the European Union (EU) whether or not exchange rates are fixed. Short-run exchange-rate variability (but not the level of the exchange rate) seems to have a negative impact on employment.

It is often claimed that a high degree of international labour mobility is a condition for a monetary union. However, what matters for the Optimum Currency Area approach is the difference between inter-regional and inter-national labour mobil ity and not the level of the latter. Recent data show that international labour mobility in Europe is of the same order of magnitude as inter-regional labour mobility within member countries and that, the latter seems to be influenced by the housing market. EMU is thus unlikely to significantly worsen the problems that arise through the low mobility of labour in Europe.
The World Economy
Authors: Morgan Julian , Pain Nigel , Hubert Florence
Published: March 2007

There are now widespread signs that activity in the world economy has begun to recover steadily from the pause in growth apparent at the beginning of 1996. Output rose by 0.6 per cent in the North American economies in the third quarter of last year and by 0.8 per cent in Europe. Business and consumer sentiment has improved gradually in recent months in most of the major economies. We expect world economic growth to pick up further over the course of this year as the contractionary effects from the downturn in world trade and prolonged inventory adjustment come to an end and as the effects from a more relaxed monetary stance begin to outweigh those from ongoing fiscal consolidation. Recent currency movements should help to stimulate external demand in Germany, France and Japan, but may act to constrain growth within the UK, Italy and the US. For both this year and 1998 we expect growth of around 2½ per cent per annum in the OECD economies.
There Is No Silver Bullet: Investment and Growth in the G7
Authors: Dougherty Chrys , Jorgenson Dale W.
Published: March 2007

This paper considers the relative importance of investment and productivity in the growth of the G7 countries during the period 1960-89. Investment is the commitment of resources in the expectation of future returns to the investor. Productivity is identified with 'spillovers' of benefits that do not provide incentives for investment. The great preponderance of growth in the US and Canada is due to investment. Investment is more important than productivity for all of the G7 countries, except France, after 1973. Patterns of economic growth have converged for the G7 countries, but important differences remain.
The UK Economy
Authors: Sheldon Marie , Young Garry
Published: March 2007

By almost any criteria 1997 turned out to be a very good year for the British economy. As in the preceding three years, real growth was faster than the rate of consumer price inflation. Unemployment fell very sharply, by almost half a million on the claimant count definition, and around 350,000 mostly full-time jobs were created over the course of the year. The balance of payments showed a surplus on current account of an estimated £4 billion and the fiscal position strengthened significantly. Among the demand components, consumers' expenditure rose by about 4 per cent, largely as a consequence of fast income growth. The windfall payments received by the personal sector on the conversion of some building societies into banks appear to have been mainly saved rather than spent, thereby adding to wealth. Personal sector wealth also benefited from increases in house prices of about 10 per cent and a rise in equity prices of around 20 per cent.
The World Economy
Authors: Morgan Julian , Pain Nigel , Hubert Florence
Published: March 2007

Global economic conditions improved markedly last year. Within the OECD, output growth is estimated to have risen to 3 per cent, the best outturn since 1989. Growth was particularly buoyant in North America, reflecting strong domestic demand, with the NAFTA economies forecast to have grown by 4 per cent. Economic prospects also improved in Europe, with growth picking up in both Germany and France. However this has yet to produce any significant declines in unemployment in those countries, suggesting that a considerable degree of slack still remains in their labour markets. In contrast, the unemployment rate in the United States has fallen under 5 per cent for the first time since the early 1970s. Growth has slowed, although not yet collapsed, in Japan with domestic demand having proved unexpectedly weak in the aftermath of moves to tighten fiscal policy. We expect to see some slowdown in global growth this year, largely as a result of the impact of recent developments in Asia, with the growth in OECD GDP projected to moderate to 2.6 per cent, some 0.4 percentage points lower than we would otherwise have predicted.
Developments in East Asia and their implications for the UK and Europe
Authors: Barrell Ray , Pain Nigel
Published: March 2007

The turmoil in East Asia over the last six months has led to major realignments of many currencies in the region, whilst domestic equity and property markets have collapsed. Though each of the directly affected economies had some unique problems, all shared the key factors behind the collapse, an over-rapid growth in domestic investment, declining external competitiveness and inefficient and loosely regulated financial institutions.
The Treasury Forecasting Record: Some New Results
Authors: Melliss Chris , Whittaker Rod
Published: March 2007

We examine the forecasting record of HM Treasury for GDP and the RPI from 1971 to the present. As well as presenting the usual statistical measures of performance, such as Root Mean Squared Errors, and regression tests of forecast efficiency and bias, we test for any relationship between the errors in GDP and RPI forecasts. Confidence intervals are constructed using a classical statistical approach based on past forecast errors, which is similar to that employed in this Review to describe forecast uncertainty.
Making Love “Legible” in China: Politics and Society during the Enforcement of Civil Marriage Registration, 1950-66
Authors: DIAMANT NEIL J.
Published: March 2007

This article looks at marriage registration as a window into state building and state-family relations in Maoist China. It focuses on the interaction between officials and citizens as they tried to make sense of the new state's unprecedented demand that people register their marriages prior to their consummation. Marriage registration was expected to make Chinese society more “legible” to the state, as well as contribute to a “healthier” nation. While much of the literature of Maoist China would anticipate state success, archival evidence points to widespread evasion and resistance, as well as accommodation, to the state's effort to reshape family relations.
Is Rereading more Effective than Prereading?
Authors: Brown Steven
Published: March 2007

This study compares rereading to prereading, asking which is more effective as a means of increasing comprehension in L2 readers. It begins by surveying research on rereading in L1 and L2. In L1 (English) research, repeated reading of passages to criterion has been shown to increase reading fluency. At the university level, rereading has been shown to be one of the most effective study aids to comprehension of texts. In L2 (English) research, rereading has also led to improved reading fluency and recall.

Japanese women college students read two short texts, adapted from magazine articles. In the prereading condition, the learners read a short summary of the text before reading the text itself. In the rereading condition, the learners read the text twice. Comprehension was measured by the number of ideas in a free written L1 recall. There was no significant difference in the number of ideas recalled between the prereading and rereading conditions for one of the texts, while for the other text those in the rereading condition recalled more. The study concludes with some pedagogical implications and argues that rereading is a potentially potent facilitator of comprehension.
Text Analysis and Reading Comprehension
Authors: Johnson Patricia
Published: March 2007

An analysis of the idea units of a passage in prose can be used to examine the effects of a text on its readers and the extent of their comprehension. How to analyze the idea units in a specific text and arrange the lexical items and grammatical relations between these items in a coherent order in a text base is first demonstrated. This model text base indicates the relative structural importance of each explicit lexical item in the text. The text base is then used to verify the number and types of items and relationships between these items in readers' written recalls of the text. Ten sample recall protocols of the text are analyzed and discussed in an attempt to illustrate how a pro positional text base can be used to understand the process of reading comprehension of ESL students.
A comparative study of the effect of two pre-reading formats on L2 reading comprehension
Authors: Tudor Ian
Published: March 2007

The article reports on a study of the effect of two pre-reading formats, a text summary and a set of pre-questions, on the text com prehension of a population of L2 learners at three proficiency levels. Two main points were investigated — the overall facilitative poten tial of the two treatments and the possible interaction of L2 profi ciency with pre-reading treatment. Both treatments produced com prehension facilitation with lower proficiency groups but not with the more advanced group. Levels of facilitation were similar for the two treatments, though the summary showed a consistent but limited lead over the pre-questions. No significant level-treatment interac tion emerged. The results are discussed in relation to the use of pre- reading in L2 comprehension development.
Facilitating Listening Comprehension Through Rate-Control
Authors: Griffiths Roger
Published: March 2007

Rate-controlled recorded text can not only be used to facilitate listen ing comprehension through reducing speech rate but it can also help language learners become accustomed to increasingly rapid deliveries. Auditory material of this kind can be produced by speech compressors, temporal spacing or multi-recording of texts. This paper, therefore, briefly describes L1 and L2 research on temporal variables relevant to facilitating listening comprehension. This is followed by a consideration of practical applications of this research to L2 listening comprehension in preparing recorded materials, in teacher-talk and in testing.
Beyond the Text Book: the Role of Commercial Materials in Language Teaching
Authors: Richards Jack C
Published: March 2007

In many schools and language programs, the textbooks used in the ESL program are the curriculum. If we wish to determine what the objectives of the ESL course are, the kind of syllabus being used, the content which the students will study, and the assumptions about teaching and learning that the course embodies, we need look no further than the textbooks used in the program itself. Textbooks and other commercial materials in many situations represent the hidden curriculum of the ESL course. Textbooks thus play a significant part in the professional lives of teachers. But what are the benefits and costs of the impact of textbooks on teaching? This paper seeks to answer this question by examining the role commercial textbooks play in instruction, why they have achieved their present status, and what the consequences are.