bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Granger causality from changes in level of atmospheric CO2 to global surface temperature and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and a candidate mechanism in global photosynthesis
Authors: Leggett L. M. W. , Ball D. A.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. A significant difference, now of some 16 years' duration, has been shown to exist between the observed global surface temperature trend and that expected from the majority of climate simulations. For its own sake, and to enable better climate prediction for policy use, the reasons behind this mismatch need to be better understood. While an increasing number of possible causes have been proposed, the candidate causes have not yet converged. With this background, this paper reinvestigates the relationship between change in the level of CO2 and two of the major climate variables, atmospheric temperature and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Using time-series analysis in the form of dynamic regression modelling with autocorrelation correction, it is shown that first-difference CO2 leads temperature and that there is a highly statistically significant correlation between first-difference CO2 and temperature. Further, a correlation is found for second-difference CO2 with the Southern Oscillation Index, the atmospheric-pressure component of ENSO. This paper also shows that both these correlations display Granger causality. It is shown that the first-difference CO2 and temperature model shows no trend mismatch in recent years. These results may contribute to the prediction of future trends for global temperature and ENSO. Interannual variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO2 is standardly attributed to variability in the carbon sink capacity of the terrestrial biosphere. The terrestrial biosphere carbon sink is created by the difference between photosynthesis and respiration (net primary productivity): a major way of measuring global terrestrial photosynthesis is by means of satellite measurements of vegetation reflectance, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). In a preliminary analysis, this study finds a close correlation between an increasing NDVI and the increasing climate model/temperature mismatch (as quantified by the difference between the trend in the level of CO2 and the trend in temperature).
Predicting the mineral composition of dust aerosols – Part 2: Model evaluation and identification of key processes with observations
Authors: Perlwitz J. P. , Pérez García-Pando C. , Miller R. L.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. A global compilation of nearly sixty measurement studies is used to evaluate two methods of simulating the mineral composition of dust aerosols in an Earth system model. Both methods are based upon a Mean Mineralogical Table (MMT) that relates the soil mineral fractions to a global atlas of arid soil type. The Soil Mineral Fraction (SMF) method assumes that the aerosol mineral fractions match the fractions of the soil. The MMT is based upon soil measurements after wet sieving, a process that destroys aggregates of soil particles that would have been emitted from the original, undisturbed soil. The second method approximately reconstructs the emitted aggregates. This model is referred to as the Aerosol Mineral Fraction (AMF) method because the mineral fractions of the aerosols differ from those of the wet-sieved parent soil, partly due to reaggregation. The AMF method remedies some of the deficiencies of the SMF method in comparison to observations. Only the AMF method exhibits phyllosilicate mass at silt sizes, where they are abundant according to observations. In addition, the AMF quartz fraction of silt particles is in better agreement with measured values, in contrast to the overestimated SMF fraction. Measurements at distinct clay and silt particle sizes are shown to be more useful for evaluation of the models, in contrast to the sum over all particles sizes that is susceptible to compensating errors, as illustrated by the SMF experiment. Model errors suggest that allocation of the emitted silt fraction of each mineral into the corresponding transported size categories is an important remaining source of uncertainty. Evaluation of both models and the MMT is hindered by the limited number of size-resolved measurements of mineral content that sparsely sample aerosols from the major dust sources. The importance of climate processes dependent upon aerosol mineral composition shows the need for global and routine mineral measurements.
Detection of anthropogenic dust using CALIPSO lidar measurements
Authors: Huang J. P. , Liu J. J. , Chen B. , Nasiri S. L.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. Anthropogenic dusts are those produced by human activities on disturbed soils, which are mainly cropland, pastureland, and urbanized regions, and are a subset of the total dust load which includes natural sources from desert regions. Our knowledge of anthropogenic dusts is still very limited due to a lack of data. To understand the contribution of anthropogenic dust to the total global dust load, it is important to identify it apart from total dust. In this study, a new technique for distinguishing anthropogenic dust from natural dust is proposed by using Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation (CALIPSO) dust and planetary boundary layer (PBL) height retrievals along with a land use data set. Using this technique, the global distribution of dust is analyzed and the relative contribution of anthropogenic and natural dust sources to regional and global emissions are estimated. Results reveal that local anthropogenic dust aerosol due to human activity, such as agriculture, industrial activity, transportation, and overgrazing, accounts for about 25 % of the global continental dust load. Of these anthropogenic dust aerosols, more than 53 % come from semi-arid and semi-wet regions. Annual mean anthropogenic dust column burden (DCB) values range from 0.42 g m−2, with a maximum in India, to 0.12 g m−2, with a minimum in North America. A better understanding of anthropogenic dust emission will enable us to focus on human activities in these critical regions and with such knowledge we will be more able to improve global dust models and to explore the effects of anthropogenic emission on radiative forcing, climate change, and air quality in the future.
Mixing layer height and the implications for air pollution over Beijing, China
Authors: Tang G. , Zhang J. , Münkel C. , Song T. , Hu B. , Schäfer K. , Liu Z. , Xin J. , Suppan P. , Wang Y.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. The mixing layer is an important meteorological factor that affects atmospheric pollution. A study of atmospheric pollution in the Beijing area was performed from July 2009 to December 2012, using a ceilometer, to observe and study the atmospheric mixing layer height (MLH). Based on a comparison and validation of multiple types of data, we evaluated the quality of the MLH data as observed by the ceilometer and found that the ceilometer underestimates MLH during neutral stratification caused by strong winds, whereas it overestimates MLH during dust crossing. By combining conventional meteorological data and PM2.5 and PM10 observational data, we screened the observational results for the MLH, and the ceilometer observations were fairly consistent with the meteorological radiosonde profile results. The correlation coefficient is more than 0.9, and the effective rate of acquired data is near 80 %. Further analysis of the variation in the MLH indicates that the MLH in the Beijing area exhibits the feature of being low in autumn and winter and being high in spring and summer. There is a significant correlation between the variation in the MLH and the sensible heat flux, whereas the diurnal variation in the mixing layer during summer is affected by the circulation of mountainous plain winds. By applying visibility as the index for the classification of atmospheric pollution degree, it is found that in comparison with a clear day, the variation of sensible heat and buoyancy term in turbulent kinetic energy (TKE) of a slight haze day is insignificant, but the reduction of shear term in TKE is near 70 % when visibility decreased from 10 to 5 km; in comparison with the slight haze day, the variation of shear term in TKE of medium and heavy haze days is insignificant, but the declination of sensible heat and buoyancy term in TKE are about 60 % when visibility decreased from 5 to 1 km. Although the correlation between the daily variation of MLH and visibility is very poor, the correlation between them is significantly enhanced as the relative humidity increases beyond 80 %. This characterizes the generation of humidity-related physiochemical processes as the main source of atmospheric particles under heavy pollution, whereas the dissipation of atmospheric particles mainly depends on the MLH. The presented results on the atmospheric mixing layer and its thermal dynamic structure under different degrees of pollution provide a scientific basis for improving the meteorological and atmospheric chemistry models and the forecasting and warning of atmospheric pollution.
Using proxies to explore ensemble uncertainty in climate impact studies: the example of air pollution
Authors: Lemaire V. E. P. , Colette A. , Menut L.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. Because of its sensitivity to unfavorable weather patterns, air pollution is sensitive to climate change so that, in the future, a climate penalty could jeopardize the expected efficiency of air pollution mitigation measures. A common method to assess the impact of climate on air quality consists in implementing chemistry-transport models forced by climate projection. However, the computing cost of such method requires optimizing ensemble exploration techniques. By using a training dataset of deterministic projection of climate and air quality over Europe, we identified the main meteorological drivers of air quality for 8 regions in Europe and developed simple statistical models that could be used to predict air pollutant concentrations. The evolution of the key climate variables driving either particulate or gaseous pollution allows concluding on the robustness of the climate impact on air quality. The climate benefit for PM2.5 was confirmed −0.96 (±0.18), −1.00 (±0.37), −1.16 ± (0.23) μg m−3, for resp. Eastern Europe, Mid Europe and Northern Italy and for the Eastern Europe, France, Iberian Peninsula, Mid Europe and Northern Italy regions a climate penalty on ozone was identified 10.11 (±3.22), 8.23 (±2.06), 9.23 (±1.13), 6.41 (±2.14), 7.43 (±2.02) μg m−3. This technique also allows selecting a subset of relevant regional climate model members that should be used in priority for future deterministic projections.
Light absorption of brown carbon aerosol in the PRD region of China
Authors: Yuan J.-F. , Huang X.-F. , Cao L.-M. , Cui J. , Zhu Q. , Huang C.-N. , Lan Z.-J. , He L.-Y.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. The strong spectral dependence of light absorption of brown carbon (BrC) aerosol is regarded to influence aerosol's radiative forcing significantly. The Absorption Angstrom Exponent (AAE) method was widely used in previous studies to attribute light absorption of BrC at shorter wavelengths for ambient aerosol, with a theoretical assumption that the AAE of "pure" black carbon (BC) aerosol equals to 1.0. In this study, the previous AAE method was improved by statistical analysis and applied in both urban and rural environments in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) region of China. A three-wavelength photo-acoustic soot spectrometer (PASS-3) and aerosol mass spectrometers (AMS) were used to explore the relationship between the measured AAE and the relative abundance of organic aerosol to BC. The regression and extrapolation analysis revealed that the more realistic AAE values for "pure" BC aerosol were 0.86, 0.82, and 1.02 at 405 nm, and 0.70, 0.71, and 0.86 at 532 nm, in the campaigns of urban_winter, urban_fall, and rural_fall, respectively. Roadway tunnel experiments were also conducted, and the results further supported the representativeness of the obtained AAE values for "pure" BC aerosol in the urban environments. Finally, the average aerosol light absorption contribution of BrC was quantified to be 11.7, 6.3, and 12.1 % (with relative uncertainties of 4, 4, and 7 %) at 405 nm, and 10.0, 4.1, and 5.5 % (with relative uncertainties of 2, 2, and 5 %) at 532 nm, in the campaigns of urban_winter, urban_fall, and rural_fall, respectively. The relatively higher BrC absorption contribution at 405 nm in the rural_fall campaign was likely a result of the biomass burning events nearby, which was supported by the biomass burning simulation experiments performed in this study. The results of this paper indicate that the brown carbon contribution to aerosol light absorption at shorter wavelengths is not negligible in the highly urbanized and industrialized PRD region.
Impact of an improved WRF-urban canopy model on diurnal air temperature simulation over northern Taiwan
Authors: Lin C.-Y. , Su C.-J. , Kusaka H. , Akimoto Y. , Sheng Y. F. , Huang J.-C. , Hsu H.-H.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. This study evaluated the impact of urbanization over northern Taiwan using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the Noah land-surface model and a modified Urban Canopy Model (WRF-UCM2D). In the original UCM coupled in WRF (WRF-UCM), when the land use in the model grid net is identified as "urban", the urban fraction value is fixed. Similarly, the UCM assumes the distribution of anthropogenic heat (AH) to be constant. Such not only may lead to over- or underestimation, the temperature difference between urban and non-urban areas has also been neglected. To overcome the above-mentioned limitations and to improve the performance of the original UCM model, WRF-UCM is modified to consider the 2-D urban fraction and AH (WRF-UCM2D). The two models were found to have comparable simulation performance for urban areas but large differences in simulated results were observed for non-urban, especially at nighttime. WRF-UCM2D yielded a higher R2 than WRF-UCM (0.72 vs. 0.48, respectively), while bias and RMSE achieved by WRF-UCM2D were both significantly smaller than those attained by WRF-UCM (0.27 and 1.27 vs. 1.12 and 1.89, respectively). In other words, the improved model not only enhanced correlation but also reduced bias and RMSE for the nighttime data of non-urban areas. WRF-UCM2D performed much better than WRF-UCM at non-urban stations with low urban fraction during nighttime. The improved simulation performance of WRF-UCM2D at non-urban area is attributed to the energy exchange which enables efficient turbulence mixing at low urban fraction. The achievement of this study has a crucial implication for assessing the impacts of urbanization on air quality and regional climate.
Operational surface UV radiation product from GOME-2 and AVHRR/3 data
Authors: Kujanpää J. , Kalakoski N.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. The surface ultraviolet (UV) radiation product, version 1.20, generated operationally in the framework of the Satellite Application Facility on Ozone and Atmospheric Chemistry Monitoring (O3M SAF) of the European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) is described. The product is based on the total ozone column derived from the measurements of the second Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment (GOME-2) instrument aboard EUMETSAT's polar orbiting meteorological operational (Metop) satellites. Cloud cover is taken into account by retrieving cloud optical depth from the channel 1 reflectance of the third Advanced Very High-Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR/3) instrument aboard both Metop in the morning orbit and Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) in the afternoon orbit. In addition, more overpasses are used at high latitudes where the swaths of consecutive orbits overlap. The input satellite data are received from EUMETSAT's Multicast Distribution System (EUMETCast). The surface UV product includes daily maximum dose rates and integrated daily doses with different biological weighting functions, integrated ultraviolet B (UVB) and ultraviolet A (UVA) radiation, solar noon UV index and daily maximum photolysis frequencies of ozone and nitrogen dioxide at the surface level. The quantities are computed in a 0.5°×0.5° regular latitude–longitude grid and stored as daily files in the hierarchical data format (HDF5) within 2 weeks from sensing. The product files are archived in the O3M SAF distributed archive and can be ordered via the EUMETSAT Data Centre.
The direct fitting approach for total ozone column retrievals: a sensitivity study on GOME-2/MetOp-A measurements
Authors: Wassmann A. , Borsdorff T. , aan de Brugh J. M. J. , Hasekamp O. P. , Aben I. , Landgraf J.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. We present a sensitivity study of the direct fitting approach to retrieve total ozone columns from the clear sky Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2/MetOp-A (GOME-2/MetOp-A) measurements between 325 and 335 nm in the period 2007–2010. The direct fitting of the measurement is based on adjusting the scaling of a reference ozone profile and requires accurate simulation of GOME-2 radiances. In this context, we study the effect of three aspects that introduce forward model errors if not addressed appropriately: (1) the use of a clear sky model atmosphere in the radiative transfer demanding cloud filtering, (2) different approximations of Earth's sphericity to address the influence of the solar zenith angle, and (3) the need of polarization in radiative transfer modeling. We conclude that cloud filtering using the operational GOME-2 FRESCO (Fast Retrieval Scheme for Clouds from the Oxygen A band) cloud product, which is part of level 1B data, and the use of pseudo-spherical scalar radiative transfer is fully sufficient for the purpose of this retrieval. A validation with ground-based measurements at 36 stations confirms this showing a global mean bias of −0.1 % with a standard deviation (SD) of 2.7 %. The regularization effect inherent to the profile scaling approach is thoroughly characterized by the total column averaging kernel for each individual retrieval. It characterizes the effect of the particular choice of the ozone profile to be scaled by the inversion and is part of the retrieval product. Two different interpretations of the data product are possible: first, regarding the retrieval product as an estimate of the true column, a direct comparison of the retrieved column with total ozone columns from ground-based measurements can be done. This requires accurate a priori knowledge of the reference ozone profile and the column averaging kernel is not needed. Alternatively, the retrieval product can be interpreted as an effective column defined by the total column averaging kernel. This interpretation relies much less on the a priori knowledge of the reference ozone profile; however, for its validation, measurements of the vertical ozone distribution are needed. The different manners of data interpretation are demonstrated for simulated and real measurements using on-ground ozone column and ozonesonde measurements for validation.
Lateral carbon fluxes and CO2 outgassing from a tropical peat-draining river
Authors: Müller D. , Warneke T. , Rixen T. , Müller M. , Jamahari S. , Denis N. , Mujahid A. , Notholt J.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. Tropical peatlands play an important role in the global carbon cycle due to their immense carbon storage capacity. However, pristine peat swamp forests are vanishing due to deforestation and peatland degradation, especially in Southeast Asia. CO2 emissions associated with this land use change might not only come from the peat soil directly but also from peat-draining rivers. So far, though, this has been mere speculation, since there has been no data from undisturbed reference sites. We present the first combined assessment of lateral organic carbon fluxes and CO2 outgassing from an undisturbed tropical peat-draining river. Two sampling campaigns were undertaken on the Maludam River in Sarawak, Malaysia. The river catchment is covered by protected peat swamp forest, offering a unique opportunity to study a peat-draining river in its natural state, without any influence from tributaries with different characteristics. The two campaigns yielded consistent results. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations ranged between 3222 and 6218 μmol L−1 and accounted for more than 99 % of the total organic carbon (TOC). Radiocarbon dating revealed that the riverine DOC was of recent origin, suggesting that it derives from the top soil layers and surface runoff. We observed strong oxygen depletion, implying high rates of organic matter decomposition and consequently CO2 production. The measured median pCO2 was 7795 and 8400 μatm during the first and second campaign, respectively. Overall, we found that only 32 ± 19 % of the carbon was exported by CO2 evasion, while the rest was exported by discharge. CO2 outgassing seemed to be moderated by the short water residence time. Since most Southeast Asian peatlands are located at the coast, this is probably an important limiting factor for CO2 outgassing from most of its peat-draining rivers.
Aligning MIS5 proxy records from Lake Ohrid (FYROM) with independently dated Mediterranean archives: implications for core chronology
Authors: Zanchetta G. , Regattieri E. , Giaccio B. , Wagner B. , Sulpizio R. , Francke A. , Vogel L. H. , Sadori L. , Masi A. , Sinopoli G. , Lacey J. H. , Leng M. L. , Leicher N.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. The DEEP site sediment sequence obtained during the ICDP SCOPSCO project at Lake Ohrid was dated using tephrostratigraphic information, cyclostratigraphy, and orbital tuning through marine isotope record. Although this approach is suitable for the generation of a general chronological framework of the long succession, it is insufficient to resolve more detailed paleoclimatological questions, such as leads and lags of climate events between marine and terrestrial records or between different regions. In this paper, we demonstrate how the use of different tie points can affect cyclostratigraphy and orbital tuning for the period between ca. 140 and 70 ka and how the results can be correlated with directly/indirectly radiometrically-dated Mediterranean marine and continental proxy records. The alternative age model obtained shows consistent differences with that proposed by Francke et al. (2015) for the same interval, in particular at the level of the MIS6-5e transition. According to this age model, different proxies from the DEEP site sediment record support an increase of temperatures between glacial to interglacial conditions, which is almost synchronous with a rapid increase in sea surface temperature observed in the western Mediterranean. The results show how important a detailed study of independent chronological tie points is for synchronizing different records and to highlight asynchronisms of climate events.
Tropical cyclone genesis potential across palaeoclimates
Authors: Koh J. H. , Brierley C. M.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. The favourability of the mid-Pliocene, Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene for tropical cyclone formation is investigated in five climate models. This is measured by a genesis potential index, derived from large-scale atmospheric properties known to be related to storm formation. The mid-Pliocene and Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) were periods where carbon dioxide levels were higher and lower than preindustrial levels respectively, while the mid-Holocene differed primarily in its orbital configuration. The cumulative global genesis potential is found to be fairly invariant across the palaeoclimates in the multi-model mean. Despite this all ensemble members agree on coherent responses in the spatial patterns of genesis potential change. During the mid-Pliocene and LGM, changes in carbon dioxide led to sea surface temperature changes throughout the tropics, yet the potential intensity (a measure associated with maximum tropical cyclone strength) is calculated to be relatively insensitive to these changes. Changes in tropical cyclone genesis potential during the mid-Holocene are found to be asymmetric about the Equator: being reduced in the Northern Hemisphere but enhanced in the Southern Hemisphere. This is clearly driven by the altered seasonal insolation. Nonetheless, the enhanced seasonality drove localised changes in genesis potential, by altering the strength of monsoons and shifting the intertropical convergence zone. Trends in future tropical cyclone genesis potential are consistent neither between the five models studied nor with the palaeoclimate results. It is not clear why this should be the case.
A generalised approach to reconstructing geographical boundary conditions for palaeoclimate modelling
Authors: Baatsen M. , van Hinsbergen D. J. J. , von der Heydt A. S. , Dijkstra H. A. , Sluijs A. , Abels H. A. , Bijl P. K.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. Studies on the palaeoclimate and palaeoceanography using numerical model simulations may be considerably dependent on the implemented geographical reconstruction. Because building the palaeogeographic datasets for these models is often a time-consuming and elaborate exercise, palaeoclimate models frequently use reconstructions in which the latest state-of-the-art of plate tectonic reconstructions, palaeotopography and -bathymetry, or vegetation have not yet been incorporated. In this paper, we therefore provide a new method to efficiently generate global geographical reconstructions that are suitable for palaeoclimate modelling. We use a plate-tectonic model to make global masks containing the distribution of land, continental shelves, shallow basins and deep ocean. The use of depth–age relationships for oceanic crust together with adjusted present-day topography gives a first estimate of the global geography at a chosen time frame. This estimate subsequently needs manual editing of areas where existing geological data indicates that the altimetry has changed significantly over time. Certain generic changes (e.g. lowering mountain ranges) can be made relatively easily by defining a set of masks while other features may require a more specific treatment. Since the discussion regarding many of these regions is still ongoing, it is crucial to make it easy for changes to be incorporated without having to redo the entire procedure. In this manner, a complete reconstruction can be made that suffices as a boundary condition for numerical models with a limited effort. This facilitates the interaction between experts in geology and palaeoclimate modelling, keeping the reconstructions up to date and improving the consistency between different studies. Moreover, it facilitates model inter-comparison studies and sensitivity tests regarding certain geographical features as newly generated boundary conditions can be easily incorporated in different model simulations. An example is presented, covering a late Eocene reconstruction (38 Ma), a MatLab script used to perform the procedure is provided in the Supplement.
Transient climate simulations of the deglaciation 21–9 thousand years before present; PMIP4 Core experiment design and boundary conditions
Authors: Ivanovic R. F. , Gregoire L. J. , Kageyama M. , Roche D. M. , Valdes P. J. , Burke A. , Drummond R. , Peltier W. R. , Tarasov L.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. The last deglaciation, which marked the transition between the last glacial and present interglacial periods, was punctuated by a series of rapid (centennial and decadal) climate changes. Numerical climate models are useful for investigating mechanisms that underpin the events, especially now that some of the complex models can be run for multiple millennia. We have set up a Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) working group to coordinate efforts to run transient simulations of the last deglaciation, and to facilitate the dissemination of expertise between modellers and those engaged with reconstructing the climate of the last 21 thousand years. Here, we present the design of a coordinated Core simulation over the period 21–9 thousand years before present (ka) with time varying orbital forcing, greenhouse gases, ice sheets, and other geographical changes. A choice of two ice sheet reconstructions is given, but no ice sheet or iceberg meltwater should be prescribed in the Core simulation. Additional focussed simulations will also be coordinated on an ad-hoc basis by the working group, for example to investigate the effect of ice sheet and iceberg meltwater, and the uncertainty in other forcings. Some of these focussed simulations will focus on shorter durations around specific events to allow the more computationally expensive models to take part.
Modeling the distributed effects of forest thinning on the long-term water balance and stream flow extremes for a semi-arid basin in the southwestern US
Authors: Moreno H. A. , Gupta H. V. , White D. D. , Sampson D. A.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. To achieve water resources sustainability in the water-limited Southwestern US, it is critical to understand the potential effects of proposed forest thinning on the hydrology of semi-arid basins, where disturbances to headwater catchments can cause significant changes in the local water balance components and basin-wise stream flows. In Arizona, the Four Forest Restoration Initiative (4FRI) is being developed with the goal of restoring 2.4 million acres of ponderosa pine along the Mogollon Rim. Using the physically based, spatially distributed tRIBS model, we examine the potential impacts of the 4FRI on the hydrology of Tonto Creek, a basin in the Verde–Tonto–Salt (VTS) system, which provides much of the water supply for the Phoenix Metropolitan Area. Long-term (20 year) simulations indicate that forest removal can trigger significant shifts in the spatio-temporal patterns of various hydrological components, causing increases in net radiation, surface temperature, wind speed, soil evaporation, groundwater recharge, and runoff, at the expense of reductions in interception and shading, transpiration, vadose zone moisture and snow water equivalent, with south facing slopes being more susceptible to enhanced atmospheric losses. The net effect will likely be increases in mean and maximum stream flow, particularly during El Niño events and the winter months, and chiefly for those scenarios in which soil hydraulic conductivity has been significantly reduced due to thinning operations. In this particular climate, forest thinning can lead to net loss of surface water storage by vegetation and snow pack, increasing the vulnerability of ecosystems and populations to larger and more frequent hydrologic extreme conditions on these semi-arid systems.
Analysis of BRCA gene missense mutations
Authors: Lai Stella W.S. , Lopes Rebecca M. , Doherty Elaine , Prosser Debra O. , Tang Rongying , Love Donald R.
Published: October 2015

With the significant progress in sequencing technologies over the last 10 years, a concomitant increase in the detection of variants of uncertain significance (VUSs) has been reported with an increasing amount of data. The interpretation of VUSs has been challenging due to the discordance of prediction results and their classification in different locus-specific databases (LSDBs). The evolving nature of variant classification systems poses the question as to the best strategies for variant interpretation. With the increased complexity of data analysis in a clinical setting, the pathogenicity of a variant should be determined through integrating and interpreting the data as a whole. Here we demonstrate the problems that are commonly encountered when interpreting VUSs and show that data integration helps in determining the pathogenicity of a variant.
Familiarisation Aboard Ships of Croatian and Montenegrin Officers
Authors: Vidan Pero , Dlabač Tatijana , Jerković Goran
Published: October 2015

New officers joining the ship must be aware of their obligations regarding information of security and safety on board. Furthermore, familiarisation includes technical skill related to ships’ equipment. Because of the lack of time during handover due to a short time of cargo operations in port, handover is often inadequate. Familiarisation should last more than a month. Officers’ contracts are usually shorter than familiarisation process. Familiarisation time and lack of familiarisation are considered as period of great risk of human error. In this paper the authors research familiarisation and handover as safety aspects.
Improving Energy Efficiency by Advanced Traffic Control Systems
Authors: Vujić Miroslav , Šemanjski Ivana , Vidan Pero
Published: October 2015

The problem of traffic congestion is particularly acute in urban areas in which the possibilities for the physical increase of capacities are limited or nonexistent. Traffic congestion has a direct impact on the emission, energy efficiency and fuel consumption of personal vehicles. Several projects in the European Union are focused on solving this problem (both at the physical level – automotive industry, as well as at the traffic management level). This paper explores the possibility of the implementation of advanced traffic control systems in urban areas in which driving behavior involves a multitude of stopand-go actions, lower speeds in lower vehicle gears. Since this type of driving behavior affects vehicle fuel consumption and emission, relevant evaluation parameters were defined (queue length, average vehicle speed, etc.). A demonstration corridor in the city of Zagreb was chosen and a simulation model based on the traffic data collected in real traffic situations developed. The basis for further research is laid down to allow the application of the proposed model and adaptive traffic control algorithms to the greater urban traffic network.
The Worldwide Tanker Shipping Market (2010 – 2020) Information Model
Authors: Vidučić Vinko , Jelić-Mrčelić Gorana , Penović-Buble Martina
Published: October 2015

The aim of this paper is to provide the information model for the worldwide tanker shipping market 2010 – 2020. The evaluation and analysis of the relevant variables of the model and the resulting growth rates are used to describe the most important theoretical principles of the worldwide tanker shipping market over the observed period of time. The research produced direct growth rates of the variables on the index scale from 1 to 100: 1. Innovations in maritime shipping (37.5), 2. Global economy (25.0), 3. Shipbuilding (14.3). 4. Globalisation (12.5) and 5. Freight rates (12.5). It can be concluded that the direct growth rates of all model variables of the worldwide tanker shipping market 2010 – 2020 have realistic chances to be implemented. By 2020 it is expected that the demand on the tanker shipping market will increase more intensely than the demand in other trades.
The green shoots of a novel training programme: progress and identified key actions to providing services to MSM at Kenyan health facilities
Authors: van der Elst Elise M , Kombo Bernadette , Gichuru Evans , Omar Anisa , Musyoki Helgar , Graham Susan M , Smith Adrian D , Sanders Eduard J , Operario Don
Published: October 2015

Introduction

Although men who have sex with men (MSM) in sub‐Saharan Africa are at high risk for HIV acquisition, access to and quality of health and HIV services within this population are negatively affected by stigma and capacity within the health sector. A recently developed online MSM training programme (www.marps‐africa.org) was shown to contribute to reductions in MSM prejudice among healthcare providers (HCPs) in coastal Kenya. In this study, we used qualitative methods to explore the provision of MSM healthcare services two years post‐training in coastal Kenya.

Methods

From February to July 2014, we held 10 focus group discussions (FGD) with 63 participants, including HCP from 25 facilities, county AIDS coordinators and MSM from local support groups. Participants discussed availability, acceptability and accessibility of HIV healthcare for MSM. HCP also discussed changes in their health service practices after completing the training. FGD were recorded, transcribed verbatim and analyzed using Ritchie and Spencer's “framework approach” for qualitative data.

Results

HCPs described continued improvements in their ability to provide service in a non‐stigmatizing way to MSM patients since completing the training programme and expressed comfort engaging MSM patients in care. Four additional recommendations for improving MSM healthcare services were identified: 1) expanding the reach of MSM sensitivity training across the medical education continuum; 2) establishing guidelines to manage sexually transmitted anal infections; 3) promoting legal and policy reforms to support integration of MSM‐appropriate services into healthcare; and 4) including MSM information in national reporting tools for HIV services.

Conclusions

Positive impacts of this sensitivity and skills training programme were reflected in HCP attitudes two years post‐intervention. Scaling‐up of efforts will rely on continued policies to include MSM in healthcare programmes to reduce stigma in health settings and guidelines for MSM STI service delivery.
Cloud regime evolution in the Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillation: Connection to large‐scale dynamical conditions and the atmospheric water budget
Authors: Wang Tao , Wong Sun , Fetzer Eric J.
Published: October 2015

We examine the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of the Indian summer monsoon to establish the connections of cloud regimes to large‐scale dynamical states defined by dynamical convergence and moisture advection. Over the Indian subcontinent, the developing phase toward ISO peaks (rainfall maximum) is associated with positive anomalies of moisture advection leading in 4–6 days to positive anomalies of dynamical convergence, triggering abrupt transitions from shallow cumulus to deep convections in 1–2 days. The decaying phase toward ISO troughs (rainfall minima) is associated with negative anomalies of moisture advection and decreasing dynamical convergence, accompanying opposite transitions in cloud regimes. Due to northward propagation of anomalies, processes over the Indian Ocean are similar but lead those over the subcontinent by ~10 days. During the transitions cirrus clouds always accompany but lag deep convective clouds by ~10 days. Over the equatorial Indian Ocean cirrus clouds are modulated by equatorial waves.
Quality assessment and consumer acceptability of bread from wheat and fermented banana flour
Authors: Adebayo‐Oyetoro Abiodun Omowonuola , Ogundipe Oladeinde Olatunde , Adeeko Kehinde Nojeemdeen
Published: October 2015

Bread was produced from wheat flour and fermented unripe banana using the straight dough method. Matured unripe banana was peeled, sliced, steam blanched, dried and milled, and sieved to obtain flour. The flour was mixed with water and made into slurry and allowed to stand for 24 h after which it was divided into several portions and blended with wheat flour in different ratios. Proximate and mineral compositions as well as functional, pasting, and sensory characteristics of the samples were determined. The results of proximate analysis showed that crude fiber ranged between 1.95% and 3.19%, carbohydrate was between 49.70% and 52.98% and protein was 6.92% and 10.25%, respectively, while iron was between 27.07 mg/100 g and 29.30 mg/100 g. Swelling capacity of the experimental samples showed a significant difference from that of control. Peak viscosity ranged between 97.00RVU and 153.63RVU for experimental samples compared with 392.35RVU obtained for the control. Most of the sensory properties for the experimental samples were significantly different from the control. This study showed that bread with better quality and acceptability can be produced from wheat–unripe banana blends.
The Art of Living with NZT and ICT: Dialectics of an Artistic Case Study
Authors: Zwart Hub
Published: October 2015

I wholeheartedly sympathize conceptually with Coeckelbergh’s paper. The dialectical relationship between vulnerability and technology constitutes the core of Hegel’s Master and Slave (the primal scene of contemporary philosophy). Yet, the empirical dimension is underdeveloped and Coeckelbergh’s ideas could profit from exposure to case studies. Building on a movie/novel (Limitless) devoted to vulnerability coping and living with ICT, I challenge the claim that modern heroism entails overcoming vulnerability with the help of enhancement and computers.
Does an Old Art Suffice for New Problems?
Authors: Swierstra Tsjalling
Published: October 2015

In this review I argue that Puech draws on two important currents in modern thought: the criticism of the ontological and social priority of conflict, and the rehabilitation of praxis vis-à-vis theoria. Still, his plea for a non-confrontational art of living leaves important questions unanswered. What is the problem exactly? What does exactly count as (non)confrontational? What is non-confrontation exactly meant to solve? What is the antiposition here? And: how does this new (or rather: old) art of living relate to the political and ethical varieties of Technology Assessment?
Synthesis, Characterization, Surface and Biological Activity of Diquaternary Cationic Surfactants Containing Ester Linkage
Authors: Migahed M. A. , Negm N. A. , Shaban M. M. , Ali T. A. , Fadda A. A.
Published: October 2015

Two series of diquaternary cationic surfactants designated as E9Nm and E11Nm having two different alkyl chains in their chemical structure were synthesized. The chemical structures of these surfactants were confirmed using elemental analysis, FTIR and 1H‐NMR spectra. The surface activities of the different surfactants were determined using surface and interfacial tension at 25 °C. The surface parameters including: critical micelle concentration, effectiveness, efficiency, maximum surface excess and minimum surface area were determined. The surface activities of the cationic surfactants were correlated with their chemical structure. The surface activities of the surfactants increased with increasing the hydrophobic chain length. The adsorption and micellization tendencies of the surfactants in solution were determined using the free energies of adsorption and micellization. The synthesized surfactants were evaluated as biocides against bacteria and fungi. Biocidal activity data showed that a gradual increase in the hydrophobic chain length of the surfactant molecules gradually increases the efficiency of these surfactants as biocides.
RETRACTED ARTICLE: Influence of the Disk Diameter and Baffle Position on the Performance of Generated Colloidal Gas Aphrons
Authors: Banifatemi Sina S. , Mohammadifard Hossein , Amiri Mohammad C.
Published: October 2015

Aphrons are surfactant‐stabilized microbubbles with thick soapy shells. Colloidal gas aphrons (CGA) with an average diameter of 50 μm have some unique properties: a high interfacial area due to their small size, a thick soapy shell and, above all, high stability compared to conventional foams. Various factors that can influence the performance of CGA dispersion, such as the type and concentration of surfactant, mixing time and processing parameters, have already been extensively studied. However, although CGA applications in various fields continue to advance, the influence of the disk diameter and baffle position of the aphron generator on the performance of CGAs has not been well studied. In this experimental work, the influences of the spinning disk diameter and baffle position inside the aphron generator have been investigated. Analyzing the drainage curve of various experimental runs revealed that the disk diameter and baffle position might have a positive impact on the stability of CGA dispersion particularly when the generation time or surfactant concentration is low. The experimental findings have been supported by other techniques such as half‐life time and a new stability index, T0.1, the time elapsed when the drained liquid from CGA dispersion reaches ten percent of its final height.
Clinical observation and therapeutic evaluation of intravenous pump of recombinant human endostatin combined with TP regimen in treating patients with advanced ovarian cancer
Authors: Zhang Chi , Deng Wen‐Ying , Li Ning , Luo Su‐Xia
Published: October 2015

Objectives

To observe the curative effects and adverse reactions of recombinant human (rh)‐endostatin injection combined with a TP regimen for treating patients with advanced ovarian cancer.

Methods

Fifty‐four patients with pathologically confirmed ovarian cancer were randomly divided into a combined treatment (intravenous pump of rh‐endostatin + TP regimen) group and a control (single chemotherapy) group, twenty‐seven patients in each group. All patients were given a conventional CT examination. The level of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), the size of tumor before treatment, after 2 cycles and after 4 cycles of treatment were determined for the comparison of curative effects and adverse reactions.

Results

The effective rate was 37.0% (10/27) and disease control rate was 63.0% (17/27) in the combined treatment group after 2 cycles of treatment. The effective rate was 25.9% (7/27) and disease control rate was 63.0% (17/27) in the control group. The comparison between these two groups showed no significant differences (P > 0.05). The effective rate was 63.0% (17/27) and disease control rate was 92.6% (25/27) in the combined treatment group after 4 cycles of treatment. The effective rate was 29.6% (8/27) and disease control rate was 63.0% (17/27) in the control group. The effective rate and disease control rate between these two groups after 4 cycles of treatment showed significant differences (P < 0.05). The incidences of cardiovascular toxicity, myelosuppression, sore muscles and joints, alopecia and gastrointestinal reaction was not significantly different between two groups (P > 0.05).

Conclusion

The pump delivery of rh‐endostatin can down‐regulate the expression of VEGF in ovarian cancer and has the better curative effect and slighter adverse reactions.
Crystal structure of the bacteriophage P2 integrase catalytic domain
Authors: Skaar Karin , Claesson Magnus , Odegrip Richard , Högbom Martin , Haggård-Ljungquist Elisabeth , Stenmark Pål
Published: October 2015

Bacteriophage P2 is a temperate phage capable of integrating its DNA into the host genome by site‐specific recombination upon lysogenization. Integration and excision of the phage genome requires P2 integrase, which performs recognition, cleavage and joining of DNA during these processes. This work presents the high‐resolution crystal structure of the catalytic domain of P2 integrase, and analysis of the structure–function relationship of several previously identified non‐functional P2 integrase mutants. The DNA binding area is characterized by a large positively charged patch, harboring key residues. The structure reveals potential for large dimer flexibility, likely essential for rearrangement of DNA strands upon integration and excision of the phage DNA.
Activist hedge funds and firm disclosure
Authors: Chen Jing , Jung Michael J.
Published: October 2015

This study examines whether firms' disclosure decisions are affected by the presence of activist hedge funds. Using a large sample of firms that experienced increases in ownership by activist hedge funds, we find that firms are more likely to cease providing financial guidance or reduce the information in the guidance in the quarter subsequent to new investment by activist hedge funds. These results hold even for firms that experienced good quarters and consistently provided guidance in previous quarters. Since guidance has been shown to be beneficial to capital market participants in many ways, reduced guidance has meaningful market implications. Our findings highlight a negative and possible unintended consequence of activist hedge funds' investment in firms, which provides some counterbalance to the numerous positive consequences documented in the prior literature on hedge fund activism.