bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Global Potential Riparian Zones Estimation
Authors: Mohammed Ibrahim , Shaad Kashif , Bolten John , Bezerra Maira
Published: March 2024

The recently announced Freshwater Challenge (FWC) initiative (https://www.freshwaterchallenge.org/) at the United Nations Water conference, sets an ambitious goal of restoring 300,000 kilometers of degraded rivers and 350 million hectares of degraded wetlands across the globe by 2030. Central to moving towards this goal will be including tangible actions for freshwater and linked ecosystems into supporting country’s Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and National Biodiversity Strategies and Action Plans (NBSAPs). This in turn relies on the availability and fidelity of geospatial information that can be the basis for planning. The currently available geospatial data that captures accurate delineation of riparian zones, i.e., the transitional semiterrestrial/semiaquatic areas regularly influenced by fresh water, usually extending from the edges of water bodies to the edges of upland communities, must be improved to address the needs highlighted in the Freshwater Challenge. This presentation gives a methodology for deriving a global potential riparian zones layer obtained by processing wetlands, riparian buffers, headwater catchments, layers, assets, and information. We process near real-time land cover dataset from dynamic World (https://dynamicworld.app/), global wetland maps (Tootchi et al., 2019), and High‐Resolution Global Hydrography Maps (Yamazaki et al., 2019; Amatulli et al., 2022) for our analysis. We further explore how this analysis will inform governments around the world on assessing the current state of Riparian Zones as well as estimating benefits from restoration effort, allowing movement towards the goals set by the Freshwater Challenge.
Discovery of Resilience of Large and Complex Aquifers to Climatic Extremes under Anthropogenic Influences
Authors: Bhatnagar Ishita , Rahmati Mehdi , Hendrick Franssen Harrie-jan , Dhanya Chandrika Thulaseedharan , Chahar Bhagu Ram
Published: March 2024

In the face of intensified climatic extremes and global aquifer stress, a subtle understanding of the complex dynamics of large aquifer systems is necessary. This study delves into the impact of changing climate and anthropogenic activities on hydro-geologically diverse regions crucial for sustaining agricultural activities. Our central hypothesis is that excessive anthropogenic activities may disrupt the connection between groundwater levels and their primary recharge source—precipitation. Leveraging advanced non-linear signal processing technique of cross-wavelet transform, we explore non-linear relationships between groundwater and precipitation. Our findings underscore the complexity of interactions between surface and sub-surface processes in the sub-tropical basins.  A crucial threshold emerges at the basin scale, as the disconnection occurs when the water table falls below 4-5 meters. Intriguingly, at the basin and subbasin scale, the connection between groundwater and precipitation has significantly weakened and broken post the drought year 2002, emphasizing the localized and enduring impact of pumping activities. The recovery from these extremes, vital for sustaining agriculture, is intricately linked to the intensity of anthropogenic activities. This research contributes valuable insights into how the groundwater response to precipitation is changing with time in highly developed large subtropical aquifers facing increasing frequency of droughts. The results will aid in formulating region-specific groundwater management strategies to enhance the resilience of groundwater resources to global warming and climate change.
Targeting irrigation investments for people and planet: A novel big-data approach
Authors: Urfels Anton , McDonald Andrew , Mkdondiwa Maxwell , Arena Calles Laura , Shankar Hari Nayak , Karki Saral , Srivastava Amit , Sherpa Sonam , Kumar Virender
Published: March 2024

Irrigated agriculture plays a foundational role for global food security while also being the largest water consumer worldwide. With little room to expand surface water irrigation, agricultural planners turn increasingly to groundwater for building climate resilience food security. This strategy has transformed major food baskets into highly productive but groundwater depleting systems. Outside these 'hotspots' however, there is still ample scope for promoting productive and sustainable groundwater use for agriculture. Here we present a big data approach for targeting groundwater irrigation investments in rice production across 4 states of India in safe shallow groundwater zones. Our results indicate that promoting one additional irrigation in parts of safe shallow groundwater zones where yield responses are especially high, can provide annual rice consumption needs for another 50m people. The spatial strucuture of the irrigation investment priority zones can further aid research and sustainable development planning. We conclude that combining increasingly abundant agronomic and hydrological data for sustainable development in low and middle income countries can help to guide the financing of more targeted and cost-effective sustainable development programs.
Ontogenetic Sequence Analysis Reveals Extensive Sequence Polymorphism in Tyrannosaurus rex
Authors: Warshaw Elias , Barrera Guevara Daniela , Yu Eric
Published: March 2024

The study of ontogeny in fossil organisms is vital to broader understanding of their ecology and evolution. Ontogeny in Tyrannosaurus rex (Theropoda: Coelurosauria) has been studied extensively by dinosaur researchers, documenting the transition from small juvenile to gigantic adult. Previous authors have regarded this transition as largely linear, serving as a model for understanding growth and development in other tyrannosaurids as well as theropods as a whole. However, the presence of sequence polymorphism (variation in the temporal order of developmental events) has yet to be investigated for this taxon, representing a potential source of error for published ontogenetic series. Here we present the first Ontogenetic Sequence Analysis (OSA) of Tyrannosaurus, recovering extensive sequence polymorphism in a previously published ontogenetic character matrix. In contrast to ontogenetic series of Tyrannosaurus recovered by cladistic ontogenetic methods, we find a significant correlation between maturity and body size among large adult specimens, and corroborate previous assertions of a relationship between histologic and morphological indicators of maturity. Our results highlight the prevalence of sequence polymorphism among saurischian dinosaurs, and demonstrate the importance of considering such variability when attempting to reconstruct the ontogeny of fossil vertebrates. We expect that further study will reveal similar variability across closely related taxa and recommend that this possibility be incorporated into interpretations of morphological variation in tyrannosaurids.
Coral Reefs: Sinks of Atmospheric CO2 ?
Authors: McGowan Hamish , Lensky Nadav , Abair Shai , Saunders Mellissa
Published: March 2024

Quantification of air-sea CO2 exchange over coral reefs has relied primarily on measurements of the CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) gradient between the water overlying a reef and the lower atmosphere. A gas transfer velocity based on wind speed is then used to estimate the air-sea CO2 mass exchange. While this approach may be suitable over the oceans or where instrumented buoys have been deployed for long-term monitoring, the method overlooks many factors that influence turbulent transport and air-sea CO2 exchange. These include surfactants, bubble exchange, atmospheric turbulence, and wave breaking, which may be particularly important over near shore fringing coral reefs. Using eddy covariance (EC) systems deployed at the shoreline adjacent to coral reefs and on pontoons we show through direct measurements these ecosystems may be net sinks of atmospheric CO2. Results show sequestration of atmospheric CO2 by healthy coral reefs and adjacent lagoons at time scales of several days to several months exceed published CO2 sequestration rates of mature pine plantations measured by EC by an order of magnitude. These findings highlight the importance of coral reefs in carbon budgets in addition to their widely known ecosystem services and societal benefits. Conserving coral reef ecosystems and ensuring they remain healthy and resilient to the threats of climate change, pollution, overfishing, tourism, and mining should be a priority. Future research will aim to track the CO2 influx through coral reef ecosystems.        
Why does extreme precipitation occur in the Philippines during El Niño winters?
Authors: Zhang Wen-Jun , Wu Renguang
Published: March 2024

As an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of weather-related hazards, such as extreme precipitation events. Despite the typical dry conditions associated with the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the tropical Pacific Ocean, extreme precipitation days still occur in the Philippines during boreal winters. This paradoxical occurrence of extreme precipitation days during the typically dry conditions associated with the warm phase of ENSO underscores the complexity of the processes leading to extreme precipitation in this region. It is important to comprehensively understand the mechanisms driving extreme precipitation in the Philippines. In this talk, we will present an analysis of boreal winter extreme precipitation over the Philippines and its associated circulation features from the synoptic scale to the sub-seasonal scale. It is found that tropical cyclones and depressions play a crucial role in resulting in extreme precipitation days in the Philippines during ENSO winters. The tracks of tropical cyclones and depressions show different characteristics in extreme precipitation days between El Niño and La Niña winters. The physical explanation will be provided for the above features based on observational analysis. A parallel analysis for weak precipitation days in the Philippines will be conducted to help understand the conditions for different precipitation events.
Ten years of MARINA modeling: Multi-pollutant hotspots and their sources under global change
Authors: Micella Ilaria , Wang Mengru , Bak Mirjam P. , Hofstra Nynke , Kroeze Carolien , Li Yanan , Li Shiyang , Strokal Vita , Ural-Janssen Aslihan , Zhang Qi , Strokal Maryna
Published: March 2024

Water quality has been deteriorating in many lakes, rivers and coastal waters. Climate change is one of the drivers that can further deteriorate water quality (e.g., droughts contribute to higher concentrations of pollutants). Meanwhile, human activities add more loadings of pollutants to water, e.g., intensified agriculture, more cities with poor wastewater treatment facilities, and low access to improved sanitation, especially in less developed countries. Examples are nutrients from overfertilized land leading to eutrophication issues in fresh and coastal waters. Pathogens in surface waters from poor sanitation facilities can make people sick. Plastics in surface waters can result from mismanaged solid waste (e.g., macroplastics) and untreated wastewater (e.g., microplastics from laundry, dust, car tires and personal care products). In general, human activities serve as common sources of multiple pollutants. For example, animal manure is often used as fertilizer in agriculture and contains nutrients, pathogens, antibiotics, and heavy metals. Therefore, it is important to better understand common sources of multiple pollutants in water across scales to identify effective solutions. We develop computer models for different scales covering grids, (sub)basins, regions and the globe. Our models are for multiple pollutants, i.e. nutrients, plastics, antibiotics, pathogens (Cryptosporidium) and pesticides. Therefore, in this abstract, we aim to compare our model results for multiple pollutants to identify robust water pollution hotspots and their sources across scales. This will contribute to and support the Fast Track initiative within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) platform. At the EGU conference, we will show examples of multi-pollutant modeling using our MARINA models (Models to Assess River Inputs of pollutaNts to seAs) family and GlowPa (Global Waterborne Pathogens) model developments. We will compare our model results for multiple pollutants by using different global climate models. Accordingly, we will discuss the impact of climate simulations on multi-pollutant hotspots. We will also show examples of identified robust multi-pollutant hotspots globally. We will zoom into regional analyses to better understand the impact of climate change on water pollution. Ultimately, we will highlight the need for such model intercomparisons for multiple pollutants and scales to better understand pollution hotspots and their sources under global change.
Monitoring and simulating dryland soil salinization and assessing the impact of climate change and global warming on soil salinity processes over the past three decades in the Bajestan playa (NE Iran)
Authors: Khosravichenar Azra , Aalijahan Mehdi , Moazeni-Noghondar Saeedreza , R. Lupo Anthony , Karimi Alireza , Ulrich Mathias , Parvian Naser , Sadeghi Aboozar , von Suchodoletz Hans
Published: March 2024

Dryland soil salinization strongly affects soil properties, with severe consequences for regional ecology, agriculture and the aeolian dust dynamics. Given its climate-sensitivity it forms a serious environmental hazard, and to cope with this challenge during current global warming it needs to be better understood.The Bajestan Playa, located in the heavily salinization-affected drylands of Iran, is home to several protected areas and serves as a crucial source of regional dust emissions. Consequently, soil salinization in this region affects both local ecosystems and societies but was not systematically studied yet.Using an unprecedented comprehensive approach, we systematically monitored regional soil salinity from 1992 to 2021 through a combination of remote sensing, on-site field measurements, and laboratory analyses. We linked these data with regional and global climatic information to achieve three main objectives: (i) understanding the spatio-temporal dynamics of soil salinity, (ii) assessing the impact of regional and global climate changes on salinization processes, and (iii) exploring the potential applications of our approach for future soil salinity studies.Our high-resolution annual data over three decades have provided significantly deeper insights into soil salinization dynamics. Furthermore, this pioneering, multidisciplinary research showcases substantial potential for future applications in other salinity-affected drylands forming a foundational knowledge base to address the consequences of ongoing global climate change.
Changes in Day-to-day temperature variability in United States driven by cleaner air
Authors: Yasen Guzailinuer , Liu Qi , Guo Weidong
Published: March 2024

Day-to-day (DTD) temperature variability is an important characteristic of air temperature, which significantly affects human health and ecosystems. However, the changing trend of DTD under recent climate warming and its causes need to be further explored. Here, Using daily temperature observations, we examine the spatial heterogeneity of DTD and its long-term trends in the United States (US) over the last 26 years and find a significant increase in winter DTD in the central and eastern United States during the study period. In addition, by using the observed data and The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model simulations, we further demonstrate that cleaner air leads to significant changes in DTD. Specifically, by comparing the contributions of greenhouse gases, anthropogenic aerosols, natural forcing, and total forcing, it is concluded that the reduction of anthropogenic aerosol concentrations in the United States after 1997 led to enhanced DTD . Of the 32 members used in this study, nearly 60% show positive trends in the DTD index during 1997–2022 in the historical simulations. The trends for the ensemble members range from -0.06 to 0.08 °C ·decade-1  with an ensemble mean of 0.008°C· decade-1 which encompasses the trend derived from the observations (0.08 °C·decade-1 ) . The historical simulations reasonably capture the observed DTD trends except with a weaker magnitude. The increasing trend is also evident in the anthropogenic-aerosol-only historical simulations, where about 56% of the 32members show positive trends, with an ensemble mean of 0.01 °C·decade-1. While contrary to the results of the anthropogenic-aerosol-only historical simulations (hist-aer), there was negative trends In the natural-only historical (hist-nat) and the greenhouse-gas-only historical (hist-GHG) simulations, only about 44% and 47% of the members showed the positive trends, The trend for the ensemble mean is -0.013/-0.015°C·decade-1 for the hist-nat / hist-GHG simulations. Therefore, the positive trend of the DTD index can be attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols , while the negative trend of which can be attributed to the natural forcing and greenhouse gas forcing. The observed DTD enhancement over 1997-2022 is dominated by the effect of anthropogenic aerosols, while natural forcing and GHGS partially counteract the effect of anthropogenic aerosols. That is, Based on climate modeling experiments, we demonstrate that the reduced aerosol emissions in US can contribute to the enhanced trend of DTD in USA.
Geochemical characteristic of springs of the East of Moscow region
Authors: Gusarova Daria
Published: March 2024

The study determined the geochemical characteristics of the spring waters of the Bogorodsky and Losino-Petrovsky districts in the east of Moscow region. The territory located on the Meshchera Lowland, within the development of Devonian, Upper Carboniferous, Upper Jurassic and Lower Cretaceous terrigenous-carbonate rocks, overlain by thin Quaternary sandy deposits.[1]
Surface sediments are permeable to precipitation and unregulated technologically polluted surface runoff, which can lead to a decrease in the quality of groundwater, which is actively used by the population as drinking water.
This research is the results of evaluated of water parameters (COD, pH, electrical conductivity), the content of major ions (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, NH4+, HCO3-, Cl-, SO42-, NO3-) and microelements (Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, Pb, Sr, Ba, Mn) for 12 springs. The waters are slightly acidic-near-neutral (pH 5.5-7.5) with the mineralization from 0.07 to 0.5 g/l, the total hardness is 0.63-5.7 mg-eq/l, the composition of the water is variable.
The spring waters are slightly mineralized (M=0.1-0.5 g/l), pH values vary from 5.5 to 7.5.  The obtained data on the content of main ions make it possible to divide the waters of the studied springs into several groups. Spring waters are divided into four groups: Cl-SO4-HCO3-(Mg)-Ca; (SO4)-HCO3-Cl-Na-Ca; (Cl)-HCO3-Ca; and mixed composition. Elevated concentrations of nitrate ions are consistently observed in water all of springs (averaging 7-9, up to 17% eq). The chemical oxygen demand (COD) averages 2.1 mgO/l, reaching a maximum of 12-18 mgO/l.
Based on the thermodynamic calculation using the Visual-MINTEQ, it was found that the predominant migration forms of Ba, Sr, Mn, Zn, Cd, Ni, Co in the waters in the waters of the surveyed springs are free ions. For Cu, Zn and Pb, the factors for the formation of migration forms are the predominant anions of water, as well as the presence of organic matter in water. For Cd an additional factor of formation of migration forms is chloride-anion.
COD values and nitrogen compound in the waters of individual springs are indicate that the formation of the composition of spring waters is associated with the infiltration of atmospheric precipitation through the modern sediments subject to anthropogenic press.
The values of other sanitary-chemical indicators (mineralization, pH, total hardness, chlorides, sulfates, magnesium, sodium, manganese), the content of standardized microelements are lower than their maximum permissible concentrations in drinking water.
 
1. Makeev V.M., Sukhanova T.V., Makarova N.V., Korobova I.V. Geological and geomorphological structure and geoecological conditions of Noginsky-Klyazminsky district of Moscow region // Geoecology. Engineering geology. Hydrogeology. Geocryology. - 2019. - N. 4. - P. 68-78. doi: 31857/S0869-78092019468-78
Modeling Equatorial Plasma Bubbles with SAMI3/SD-WACCM-X: Large-Scale Wave Structure
Authors: Chou Min-Yang , Yue Jia , Pedatella Nicholas , McDonald Sarah , Tate Jennifer
Published: March 2024

Large-scale wave structure (LSWS) in the bottomside F layer is pivotal in developing equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs), potentially serving as a precursor of EPBs. Gravity waves, hypothesized to contribute through the wind dynamo mechanism, face experimental challenges. This study, utilizing the coupled SAMI3 and SD-WACCM-X models, investigates the role of gravity wave wind dynamo effect and gravity in LSWS development. We found that the gravity waves originating from the lower atmosphere induce vertical E×B drift perturbations in the nighttime ionosphere. Notably, LSWS can manifest independently of gravity, emphasizing the dominance of the gravity wave wind dynamo mechanism. However, LSWS exhibits more pronounced vertical E×B drift perturbations, indicating an additional eastward Pedersen current driven by equatorial winds (i.e., downward wind) via the gradient drift instability. Gravity-driven Pedersen current, therefore, plays a role in amplifying the LSWS and EPB development. Simulations also show the emergence of pre-dawn turbulent bubble-like irregularities in the bottomside ionosphere even without gravity, attributed to concentric gravity waves over the magnetic equator. Our findings underscore the significant influence of gravity waves on the formation of LSWS and ionospheric irregularities.    
Asset-level assessment of climate physical risk matters for adaptation finance
Authors: Bressan Giacomo , Duranovic Anja , Monasterolo Irene , Battiston Stefano
Published: March 2024

Climate physical risk assessment is crucial to inform adaptation policies and finance. However, science-based and transparent solutions to assess climate physical risks are still missing. This is a main limitation to fill the adaptation gap. We provide a methodology that quantifies physical risks on geolocalized productive assets, considering their exposure to both chronic and acute impacts (hurricanes) across the scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Then, we translate asset-level shocks into economic and financial losses. We illustrate the methodology in an application to Mexico, a country that is highly exposed to physical risks, and attracts adaptation finance and foreign investments. We find that investor losses are underestimated up to 70% when neglecting asset-level information, and up to 82% when neglecting acute risks. Therefore, neglecting the asset-level and acute dimensions of physical risks can lead to large errors in the identification of the relevant adaptation policy response, investments and finance tools aimed to build resilience to climate change.
Frictional slip sequences in homogeneous and bimaterial interfaces
Authors: Shi Songlin , Wang Meng , Poles Yonatan , Fineberg Jay
Published: March 2024

Earthquake-like ruptures disrupt the frictional interface between contacting bodies and initiate frictional motion (stick-slip). The interfacial slip (motion) immediately resulting from a rupture during each stick-slip event is usually much smaller than the total slip recorded during the duration of the event. Slip after the onset of friction is generally attributed to the continuous motion of global ‘dynamic friction’. Here, we demonstrate that numerous hitherto invisible secondary ruptures are initiated immediately after each initial rupture by directly measuring the contact area and slip at the frictional interface. Each secondary rupture generates incremental slip that, when not resolved, may appear as steady sliding of the interface. Each slip increment is linked, via fracture mechanics, to corresponding variations of contact area and local strain. Cumulative interfacial slip can only be described if the effects of these secondary ruptures are taken into account. These weaker slip sequences can also be observed in bimaterial interfaces and exhibit strong directional effects. In addition, the seismic moments we estimate based on slip sequences are consistent with the Gutenberg-Richter (G-R) law. These results have important implications for our fundamental understanding of frictional motion and the important role of aftershocks within natural faults in generating earthquake-mediated slip/afterslip.
The role of pre-rift tectonic quiescence on rifted margins configuration
Authors: Salazar-Mora Claudio A. , Sacek Victor
Published: March 2024

During the breakup of the Pangea Supercontinent, rifting localized in portions of the continental lithosphere that comprised orogenic structural inheritances. This heterogeneous orogenic lithosphere is a result of mountain-building processes followed by post-orogenic tectonic quiescence. In the case of the Atlantic Ocean opening in its North, Central, and South segments, the time span between Gondwana-Pangea amalgamation and the onset of rifting is largely different, ranging from tens of Myrs to hundreds of Myrs. In this contribution, we discuss the effects of different tectonic quiescence periods of time on the pre-rift continental lithosphere and consequent variable conjugate rifted margin configurations. Here we present 2D thermo-mechanical numerical models that simulate a sequence of extension, contraction, quiescence, and final extension (i.e. accordion-like models). Through this process, our models self-consistently create the orogenic inheritance that undergoes quiescence and final rifting. We explored wide orogenic structures (i.e. without erosion) and narrow ones (i.e. with erosion). In the case of wide orogens, our models showed that tectonic quiescence periods between 30-60 Myrs developed symmetric conjugate rifted margins, where the lithospheric mantle broke up before the continental crust, which, in turn, hyperextended. Nearly 50% of the previously subducted continental crust remained in the fossil subduction zone after rifting. In the case of wide orogens with 100-300 Myrs of tectonic quiescence, the conjugate rifted margins are strongly asymmetric with one ultra-wide side. Nearly 80% of the previously subducted crust was educted during extension. Still in the wide orogens, but now with less than 30 Myrs of quiescence, the resulting rifted margins are asymmetric, not developing ultra-wide sides and having up to 90% of the previously subducted crust educted. Finally, the narrow orogens were not significantly influenced by tectonic quiescence periods in the construction of the final rifted margins, which resulted all asymmetric and rather narrow. In this case, the longer the quiescence, the more continental crust was preserved in the fossil subduction zone. These simulations show that the final rifted conjugates are strongly affected by an interplay between structural and thermal inheritances in the orogenic lithosphere. Wide orogens are hot due to high concentrations of heat-producing elements and grow laterally by orogenic spreading during longer periods of quiescence. Contrastingly, narrow orogens are cold and lack crustal material for wide rifted conjugates.Funded by Petrobras Project 2022/00157-6.
Agricultural Water and Land Resources Use Efficiency Based on Green Production and Resources Synergy
Authors: Liu Chang
Published: March 2024

It is important to analyze the efficiency of agricultural water and land resources utilization in macro-regions from the perspective of synergistic inputs and "economic-social-ecological" benefits for the sustainability of agricultural production. This paper clarified the connotation of agricultural water and land resources use efficiency by combining the broad concept of water resources and the characteristics of "multiple inputs - multiple outputs" in agricultural production, constructed the Super-SBM(Super slacks based measure) model and Super-Undesirable-SBM(Super undesirable slacks based measure) model using data envelopment analysis to measure the production allocation efficiency. The Super-SBM model and Super-Undesirable-SBM model were used to measure the efficiency of agricultural water and land resources utilization of the concept. Agricultural water and land resources utilization efficiency without considering ecological benefits (WLUE), agricultural water and land resources utilization efficiency with considering ecological benefits (WLUEE), water resource utilization efficiency loss (WUEL) and arable land resource utilization efficiency loss (LUEL) were measured for 51 counties in the study area, taking the Shandong Yellow Diversion Irrigation District as an example. By comparing and analyzing the WLUE and WLUEE measurement results, WUEL and LUEL decomposition results, the characteristics of agricultural water and soil resource utilization and the size difference of the two resource utilization efficiency losses in each county of the study area were revealed, and the counties of the study area were classified into four types: green and efficient production type, ordinary efficient production type, green and inefficient production type and ordinary inefficient production type. This paper proposed targeted improvement measures for agricultural soil and water resource use efficiency in each county and a new perspective for the study of agricultural soil and water resource utilization efficiency. The research results are conducive to promoting the sustainable development of agricultural production in the study area.
Data Assimilation with Biases & Random Errors
Authors: Restrepo Juan , Ramirez Jorge , vanLeeuwen Peter , Alves Caio
Published: March 2024

Assimilating dynamic models and observations, along with their errors using Bayesian estimation method are challenged when the model has both aleatoric and epistemic errors. We devised a diffusion map technique that can filter an observational data stream, stripping it of components that are near statistically stationary, leaving behind what we denote the tendency of the time series. The tendency of the time series can be thought of as an executive summary of the time series. A model constructed on known physical principles may not be able to capture the tendency with fidelity and thus one can identify, from an estimation process on aleatoric fields, the epistemic error. Using machine learning strategies a surrogate model for the epistemic error can be inferred from a comparison of the physics model and the tendency. The surrogate model is thus incorporated into the model dynamics to enhance the fidelity in predictions. The assimilation of the enhanced model and the observations can now be carried out over the aleatoric Bayesian framework. To meet the challenge of the resulting highly nonlinear and non-Gaussian data assimilation we employ a newly developed Stein sampler we call the particle flow filter. In this talk we will describe and demonstrate  this assimilation strategy. 
Modelling of Low Frequency Sea Level Variability Over the Maritime Continent: Historical Dynamic Variability and Changes
Authors: Ma Peifeng , Gangadharan Nidheesh , Tkalich Pavel
Published: March 2024

Dynamical downscaling employing high-resolution ocean models is widely considered as an efficient approach for modelling of regional ocean dynamics and sea-level changes using output of original coarse-resolution global general circulation models (GCMs). In this study, the historical dynamic variability and trends of sea level in the South China Sea (SCS) and the Southeast Asia Seas (SEAS) are investigated using the high-resolution regional ocean model (NEMO). Two hindcast ocean modelling experiments are conducted for the period 1960-2014. One is driven by global reanalysis data (ERA5 and ORAS5) forcings at the lateral and surface boundaries. The other is driven by global modelling oceanic data (EC-EARTH3) at the lateral boundary and by WRF-based downscaled atmospheric fields from the same parent model (EC-Earth3) at the surface boundary. Using the hindcast model runs, variability and trends of low-frequency sea-levels, as well as the driving mechanisms and the related processes are discussed, and the model performance and biases are analysed.This Research is supported by Singapore’s National Research Foundation and National Environment Agency under the National Sea Level Programme Funding Initiative (Award No. USS-IF-2020-4).
Green Riyadh, Ambitious Urban Environmental Forestation Project
Authors: AlHumidan Saad
Published: March 2024

Green Riyadh project is one of the most ambitious urban forestation projects in the world. It is one of Riyadh’s four megaprojects launched on 19 March 2019. The project will be a milestone that contributes to fulfilling a key goal of the Saudi Vision 2030 to promote Riyadh’s position among the world’s top livable cities.
The Green Riyadh project will contribute to increasing the per capita share of green space, and raise the total green spaces by planting trees around all city features and facilities as well as in all its provinces. All of the greenings will be watered by recycled water from an irrigation network. The greening initiative will lead to improved air quality and reduced temperatures in the city. As a consequence, this project will encourage Riyadh citizens to follow a healthy lifestyle which is part of the Kingdom’s Vision 2030.
Afforestation include planting 7.5 million trees across the capital, 3,330 neighborhood gardens, 43 parks, 6,000 schools, 2,000 car parking sites 1,670 public facilities, 390 healthcare facilities 64 universities and colleges, 16,400 kms of streets and roads, 1,100 kms green belts along utilities lines (power stations oil pipelines, etc.), and 272 kms valleys. About 72 native shade plant species compatible with Riyadh’s environment will be used for the project.
Project benefits include the reduce of ambient temperature by 2 Celsius degrees during summer season, reduce temperatures by 8-15 Celsius degrees in selected intensively afforested locations across the city improve the air quality by reducing CO2 concentration by 3-6%, reduce dust concentration in the air, reduce annual power consumption by 650 gigawatt/hour, through encouraging the principles of Green Building techniques that use green ceilings and walls, improve readiness for handling rainwater and minimize the flood hazards , encourage citizens of Riyadh to adopt a healthy lifestyle, preserve natural zones and improve the biological diversity , improve quality of life and promote Riyadh’s position among the world’s top liveable cities, yield about 18 billion Euro as ROI 2030 through less healthcare expenses, lower electricity consumption, higher real estate value, use of treated wastewater as a replacement for potable water for irrigation, and Improve urban landscape of Riyadh.
Mapping and monitoring different types of landslides through InSAR in the Northern Apennines of Italy
Authors: Ahmad Atif , Mercurio Alessandro , Bayer Benedikt , Franceschini Silvia , Simoni Alessandro
Published: March 2024

Landslides in mountainous regions are a major concern due to their potential impact on infrastructure and human lives. Many deep-seated slope movements alternate between phases of sustained movement to phases of dormancy. Detecting and monitoring active movements over large territories can effectively support risk mitigation efforts. Satellite radar interferometry is widely used for such purposes, despite its poor coverage in uninhabited rural areas. Our study aims to overcome such limitations by using conventional two-pass interferometry. We use interferometric stacking to improve the signal-to-noise ratio and carefully select interferogram duration and coherence to enhance the ability to detect active slow-moving landslides. The current study focuses on five large catchments of the Northern Apennines, Italy. In the first phase of the study, yearly stacks from 2016 to 2023 were used to identify InSAR Deformation Signals likely related to slope deformation processes. More than 80 signals were detected in the study area, showing sustained deformation in multiple interferometric stacks either in ascending and/or descending geometry. This provides strong evidence for the effectiveness of our approach. We compare our results with geomorphological and geological information, as well as the landslide inventory, illustrating how active landslides are favored by weak lithologies and pre-existing slope instability. The analysis of the evolution of selected signals over time, representative of the pattern of landsliding in our study area, shows distinct trends for landslides involving fine-grained materials and arenaceous bedrock. Earthslides and earthflows show sustained downslope motion with seasonal velocity changes, while rockslides are subject to short-duration acceleration episodes. Time series analysis show that surface displacements can be observed throughout most part of the year, with exceptions during periods of snow cover and the summer peak of vegetation. These findings highlight the potential of standard InSAR for mapping and monitoring active landslides. 
The association of AMOC and Atlantic sea ice in a transient CGCM simulation for the past 2.6 million years.
Authors: Mandal Gagan , An Soon-Il , Timmermann Axel , Yun Kyung-Sook , Park Jae-Heung
Published: March 2024

The Quaternary period (0–2.58 million years) is an important time in the early evolution of our human ancestors. This period is featured by distinctive glacial-interglacial cycles, primarily caused by variations in orbital parameters (i.e., eccentricity (100 thousand years (kyr)), obliquity (41 kyr), and precession (23/19 kyr)), atmospheric CO2 concentration (GHG), and their feedbacks. Therefore, it is essential to understand the climate system, mainly focusing on the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) due to its huge impact.In this study, we have employed a quasi-continuous simulation to understand the AMOC variability in response to changes in orbital, GHG, and continental ice sheet forcings over the past 2.6 million years. It is found that the AMOC variability is associated with the sea ice coverage and mixed layer depths over the Labrador Sea and Irminger and Iceland basins. The overall mixed layer depth over the Labrador Sea, Irminger, and Iceland basins and the corresponding AMOC variability vary in precession and obliquity periodicity. Meanwhile, the mixed layer depth in the Labrador Sea exhibits a dominant precession, and the Irminger and Iceland basins exhibit a dominant obliquity periodicity. Further, we have divided the entire Quaternary period into three subsets based on the dominant periodicity of the climate state: 0ka–700ka (post-MPT; 100kyr dominant), 700ka–1200ka (MPT; 100–80kyr and 41kyr dominant), and 1200ka–2600ka (pre-MPT; 41kyr dominant). We have found that sea ice coverage and mixed layer depth in the Labrador Sea (Irminger and Iceland basins) are out of (in) phase with a Pearson correlation coefficient of −0.70 (0.42) during post-MPT, −0.78 (0.32) during MPT, and −0.85 (0.38) during pre-MPT periods. These results indicate that during glacial periods, the southward expansion of Labrador sea ice covered the deep convection sites, which impeded deep convection and weakened the AMOC strength. Therefore, the expansion and contraction of Labrador sea ice and its feedback contributed to AMOC variability over glacial‐interglacial cycles for the past 2.6 million years.
Remote hydraulic fracturing at weak interfaces
Authors: Yoshioka Keita , You Tao
Published: March 2024

Hydraulic fracturing is a reservoir stimulation technique that has been applied since the 1950s and is one of the most effective ways to enhance well productivity. At the same time, hydraulic fracturing can induce seismicity or result in the loss of containment of subsurface fluids due to the high injection pressure applied during its operation, leading some projects to eventual shut-down. To mitigate such adverse impacts, an alternative approach known as hydro shearing has been promoted for some enhanced geothermal system projects, wherein the injection pressure is kept at a low level, aiming to stimulate pre-existing networks of fractures by shearing. However, the practical effectiveness of hydro shearing is yet to be proven. In this talk, we propose another alternative stimulation approach using a low-viscosity fluid. We demonstrate that with low-viscosity fluid injection, we can fracture discontinuous interfaces such as grain boundaries or natural fractures without initiating fractures at the injection point. Our results indicate the possibility of engineering reservoir stimulation operations without applying high injection pressure.
Navigating uncertainties: an interdisciplinary approach to land use management in favour of the water cycle 
Authors: Ruiz Itxaso , Markanday Ambika , Zafra Noelia , Brugnach Marcela
Published: March 2024

Exacerbated by climate change, water scarcity in the Mediterranean basin poses one of the most significant environmental challenges in the region, compromising adaptation capacities. Current knowledge of how forests contribute to rainwater recycling, i.e. by increasing evapotranspiration and promoting orographic precipitation, has led to the proposal of forest management strategies to mitigate desertification in the western Mediterranean basin. Focusing on a case study in eastern Spain, where formerly arable lands are today covered by dense forests, we reflect on the uncertainties that arise from this relation between land use changes and orographic precipitation at the watershed scale. We aim to transform the encountered uncertainties into actionable opportunities for adapting this territory to ongoing climate change. To support the development of intervention strategies that increase climate resilience, we use an interdisciplinary approach that integrates participatory processes for co-designing sustainable land management measures and a systematic literature review from which we identify the physical and biophysical uncertainties arising from the rainwater recycling hypothesis. In search of practical applications, we are developing a decision support game to test the implementation conditions of the management strategies. This game provides decision-makers with a tool to assess how the proposed measures align with the needs, capabilities, and willingness of local stakeholders, and it also enables reflecting on potential trade-offs. This research contributes to strengthening the water cycle through adaptive land management and, thus, promoting a more resilient western Mediterranean basin.
Multiengine-driving Tethyan evolution
Authors: Li Zhong-Hai
Published: March 2024

Tethys tectonic system has experienced a long-term evolution history, including multiple Wilson cycles; thus, it is an ideal target for analyzing plate tectonics and geodynamics. Tethyan evolution is typically characterized by a series of continental blocks that separated from the Gondwana in the Southern Hemisphere, drifted northward, and collided and accreted with Laurasia in the Northern Hemisphere. During this process, the successive opening and closing of multistage Tethys oceans (e.g., Proto-Tethys, Paleo-Tethys, and Neo-Tethys) are considered core parts of the Tethyan evolution. Herein, focusing on the life cycle of an oceanic plate, four key geodynamic processes during the Tethyan evolution, namely, continental margin breakup, subduction initiation (SI), Mid-Ocean Ridge (MOR) subduction, and continental collision, were highlighted and dynamically analyzed to gather the following insights. (1) Breakup of the narrow continental margin terranes from the northern Gondwana is probably controlled by plate subduction, particularly the subduction-induced far-field stretching. The breakup of the Indian continent and the subsequent spreading of the Indian Ocean can be attributed to the interactions between multiple mantle plumes and slab drag-induced far-field stretching. (2) Continental margin terrane collision-induced subduction transference/jump is a key factor in progressive Tethyan evolution, which is driven by the combined forces of collision-induced reverse push, far-field ridge push, and mantle flow traction. Moreover, lithospheric weakening plays an important role in the occurrence of SI. (3) MOR subduction is generally accompanied by slab break-off. In case of the considerably reduced or temporary absence of slab pull, mantle flow traction may contribute to the progression of plate subduction. MOR subduction can dynamically influence the overriding and downgoing plates by producing important and diagnostic geological records. (4) The large gravitational potential energy of the Tibetan Plateau indicates that the long-lasting India-Asia continental collision requires other driving forces beyond the far-field ridge push. Further, the mantle flow traction is a good candidate that may considerably contribute to the continuous collision. The possible future SI in the northern Indian Ocean will release the sustained convergent force and cause the collapse of the Tibetan Plateau. Based on the integration of these four key geodynamic processes and their driving forces, a “multiengine-driving” model is proposed for the dynamics of Tethyan evolution, indicating that the multiple stages of Tethys oceanic subduction provide the main driving force for the northward drifting of continental margin terranes. However, the subducting slab pull may be considerably reduced or even lost during tectonic transitional processes, such as terrane collision or MOR subduction. In such stages, the far-field ridge push and mantle flow traction will induce the initiation of new subduction zones, driving the continuous northward convergence of the Tethys tectonic system.