bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
An effective and predictive model for the long-term variations of Cosmic Rays in the Heliosphere"
Authors: Pelosi David , Bertucci Bruna , Tomassetti Nicola , Reis Orcinha Miguel , Fiandrini Emanuele , Barao Fernando
Published: March 2024

Investigating the connection between solar variability and energetic radiation in the heliosphere is of fundamental importance for assessing radiation exposure and associated risks in space missions.Our research focuses on the solar modulation phenomenon of cosmic rays, that is, on the long-term variation of the cosmic-ray flux and its association with the solar activity cycle.Here we present our endeavors to establish an effective and predictive model of solar modulation. Our model incorporates fundamental physics processes of particle transport such as diffusion, drift, convection and adiabatic cooling, to compute the energy spectrum and temporal evolution of the cosmic radiation in the inner heliosphere.Calibration and validation of our model are performed using the most recent cosmic-ray data from space-based detectors, such as AMS-02 on the International Space Station, along with multichannel observations of solar activity and interplanetary parameters.This comprehensive model not only demonstrates good results in reproducing observations but also showcases its potential in space radiation monitoring and forecasting, offering valuable insights for evaluating exposure in future space missions.
Calcification diversity is key to understanding if the biotic responses of calcareous nannoplankton communities to climate change have biogeochemical consequences 
Authors: Sheward Rosie M. , Herrle Jens O.
Published: March 2024

Climate variability impacts key characteristics of marine phytoplankton communities, including community composition, size structure, and biodiversity. As each phytoplankton species has specific ecological and biogeochemical traits, changes in phytoplankton community composition can have consequences for ecosystem processes. The calcareous nannoplankton, a marine phytoplankton group that includes coccolithophores, play a unique role in marine biogeochemical cycles though the production and export of both organic and inorganic carbon (biomass and calcite, respectively). However, it is challenging to investigate if differences in calcareous nannoplankton community composition have consequences for community biogeochemical traits (size, biomass, calcite) because the diversity of cellular calcification traits across calcareous nannoplankton species is poorly quantified. Here, we transform the morphological trait data preserved in the fossil record of Paleogene calcareous nannoplankton assemblages to reconstruct past community cell size structure and its associated biomass and calcite traits through the Oligocene ‘coolhouse’ in the Pacific Ocean. Community composition at the low and mid-latitude sites that we investigated (ODP Site 130-804, ODP Site 143-869, ODP Site 198-1211) was distinctly different to composition at the high latitude site studied (IODP Site 378-U1553). The dominant warm water-affinity taxa at lower latitude sites (Syracosphaera, Discoaster) and temperate-cool water-affinity taxa at the high latitude site (Cyclicargolithus, Reticulofenestra, Chiasmolithus) have distinctly different morphological traits, leading to latitudinal differences in total community biomass and calcite and how biomass and calcite is partitioned across size classes. Within each site, community composition through the Oligocene instead tends to fluctuate between species with substantial degrees of biogeochemical trait overlap, largely moderating the degree of biogeochemical impact resulting from shifts in community composition through time. Our results suggest that the impacts of climate-driven biotic reorganisation on community biogeochemical traits can be minimised when replacement species have similar size and calcification traits (higher levels of trait redundancy). Conversely, the biogeochemical implications of even relatively small changes in community composition can be amplified by strongly dissimilar calcification traits within an assemblage. Physiological and ecological traits that influence production rates of biomass and calcite will also factor into the biogeochemical impact of community composition shifts but are difficult to quantify using existing methods. Our research highlights the importance of considering calcification and size diversity when exploring the wider consequences of calcareous nannoplankton responses to climate change in both past and present-day communities.
Assessing the sensitivity of geomorphological attributes to DEM source and Spatial Resolutions 
Authors: Rana Saroj , Chavan Sagar Rohidas
Published: March 2024

Digital Elevation Models (DEMs)are used for extracting the geomorphological attributes of catchments. These attributes play crucial role in determining the hydrological responses of the catchments. However past research has highlighted the sensitivity of the geomorphological attributes to various DEM sources as well as special resolutions. This study is envisaged to assess the impact of different DEM sources and DEM resolutions on geomorphological attributes proposed by Moussa (2008) on Upper Yamuna River Basin which flows in 5 states (Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and Haryana) of India. For this purpose, different DEM sources, Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), and Advanced Land Observing Satellite (ALOS) Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (PALSAR) DEMs are used. To investigate the impact of DEM spatial resolution, 5 different resampled scenarios (grid size 90m, 120m, 150m, 180m, 210m) for each source of DEM was considered using the SRTM 30m DEM as a base DEM. The comparative assessment revealed notable discrepancies in the derived attributes among the DEMs of different resolutions and sources. The evaluation of variation in geomorphological attributes derived from various DEM sources and resolutions, yielded insightful observations. Furthermore, variations were observed between the different satellite sources, highlighting inherent differences in elevation data acquisition and processing methodologies. These findings underscore the critical influence of spatial resolution and data source on the accuracy and reliability of geomorphological attributes derived from DEMs, emphasizing the significance of careful consideration in selecting DEMs for terrain analysis and related applications.
Spatial partitioning of precipitation in the terrestrial water cycle and the role of dataset agreement
Authors: Markonis Yannis , Vargas Godoy Mijael Rodrigo , Kumar Pradhan Rajani , Pratap Shailendra , Thompson Johanna Ruth , Hanel Martin , Paschalis Athanasios , Nikolopoulos Efthymios , Papalexiou Simon Michael
Published: March 2024

The study of the water cycle at planetary scale is crucial for our understanding of large-scale climatic processes. There have been numerous studies that quantified the water cycle and its components, i.e., precipitation, evaporation, and runoff, over the land and the ocean. However, very little is known about how water fluxes are distributed across regions with different climatic or land properties. Here, we address this gap by providing robust estimates for terrestrial precipitation over a suite of land cover types, biomes, elevation zones, and precipitation intensity classes. We achieve this by estimating the mean annual precipitation of a 17-dataset ensemble between 2000 and 2019 at 0.25° spatial resolution. Our estimate of annual terrestrial precipitation is at approximately 114 000 ± 9 400 km3, with about 70% falling over one third of the grid cells, 80% over the 0 – 800 elevation zone, and two-thirds over forested regions. Our results also highlight that despite the current progress in the development of global scale data products there are still substantial uncertainties over the arid and/or high-elevation areas.  Bigger discrepancies appear within the reanalysis data products, while remote sensing estimates show a better agreement with the in-situ ground truth. These results help to detect regions of high observational fidelity and pave the way to further explore and improve observational uncertainties. At the same time, we provide consistent estimates that can be used for benchmarking the precipitation partition in the climate models, and most importantly that can be used to assess future changes in global precipitation.
Observations of Eddy - Internal Wave Interactions in the Tropics
Authors: Schulz Marco , Schütte Florian , Dengler Marcus , Fischer Tim
Published: March 2024

Based on an extensive dataset obtained from multiple individual ship-based samplings of mesoscale eddies and a long-term mooring (2006-2023), interactions between mesoscale eddies and internal waves are analyzed. Theory predicts that anticyclonic mesoscale eddies shift the effective Coriolis force for near-inertial waves (NIW) locally in regions of strong relative vorticity towards subinertial frequencies, leading to trapping of NIW in their core and accelerated downward propagation to a critical layer at the eddy base where mixing is eventually enhanced. In contrast, cyclones might expel NIW through the same but reverse effect. In both cases, and independent of their relative vorticity, increased mixing is expected in regions of strong vertical geostrophic shear at the rims due to critical layer processes. We are able to confirm these theoretical predictions in the observed dataset for several eddies (located mostly in the eddy-rich eastern boundary upwelling systems and waters surrounding the Cape Verde Archipelago). Velocity measurements in coherent anticyclonic eddies repeatedly show pronounced alternating current bands with amplitudes up to 15 cm/s, likely associated with convergence of downward propagated NIW. Microstructure measurements, supplemented by finescale parameterizations, show enhanced mixing in both, the base of anticyclones and slightly elevated dissipation rates at the rims of cyclones, where geostrophic shear is strong. Counterintuitive to the aforementioned theory, enhanced downward propagation was also observed below the center of cyclones. Frequency spectra from the mooring data indicate that the NIW frequency band is altered by the relative vorticity. Overall, a high variability of the internal wave field is observed and impacts of mesoscale eddies are readily apparent in the case of anticyclones, representing a path of energy into the deeper ocean and a key process for local mixing.
AI-based ensemble flood forecasts and its implementation in multi-objective robust optimization operation for reservoir flood control
Authors: Guo Yuxue , Xu Yue-Ping , Yu Xinting , Liu Li , Gu Haiting
Published: March 2024

Providing reservoirs with accurate forecasts is crucial for effective real-time flood control. This research focuses on the key role of forecasts in real-time flood management for reservoirs. A new approach was developed in this study, integrating a forecast-driven methodology to handle uncertainty in reservoir flood control operations. This involves a novel hybrid of two post-processing techniques: the Cloud model and error-based copula functions, together termed as the stochastic errors-based Cloud (SE-Cloud). Additionally, a multi-objective robust optimization model (MRO) was proposed, encompassing risk, resilience, and vulnerability, to address flood control challenges using ensemble forecasts. For comparative purposes, a two-objective stochastic optimization model (TSO) was also created, aiming to reduce both the highest expected reservoir level and peak discharge. The proposed methodology was applied to the Lishimen reservoir in the Shifeng River subbasin, China, aiming to comprehensively verify the relationships among deterministic forecasts, ensemble forecasts, and flood control performance. The main findings of this study are: (1) The SE-Cloud model was proved to be more efficient in predicting peak flow events and in representing uncertainties in forecasts, with an improvement in hypervolume values ranging from 13.14% to 39.65% over the Cloud model. (2) The MRO strategy resulted in a higher inflow release compared to the TSO, leading to a 0.05m reduction in the anticipated highest water level and a 4.29% increase in peak discharge. (3) With the resilience value downstream remaining constant, it was suggested that increasing upstream vulnerability by using the MRO strategy would not lead to a decrease in resilience. The findings highlight the potential of AI-based ensemble forecasts in augmenting flood control robustness.
Impact of vegetation cover on interglacial climates
Authors: Prange Matthias
Published: March 2024

Quaternary interglacials show varying amplitudes and different patterns of changes in climate and vegetation cover. A better understanding of these changes requires deeper insight into the mechanisms by which climate and vegetation interact. Using the Earth system model CESM1.2, the present study assesses the role of Northern Hemisphere vegetation changes in shaping the global climate for different interglacial warm intervals: the mid Holocene (MH; 6 ka), the Last Interglacial (LIG; 127 ka), and Marine Isotope Stage 11 (MIS 11; 409 ka). The model allows the prognostic and interactive simulation of leaf and stem area indices and vegetation height, while the vegetation biogeography is fixed (“semi-dynamic vegetation”). In accordance with previous studies, we find that the simulated interglacial climates turn out to be too cold compared to reconstructions. Relative to the pre-industrial (PI) control run, the annual global mean surface air temperature (SAT) is 0.3 K colder in the MH, 0.1 K colder at the LIG and unchanged at the MIS 11 time slice. Strongest warming is found above the Arctic Ocean, where the model simulates a mean annual SAT increase by up to 3 K for the MH, up to 7 K for the LIG, and up to 6 K for MIS 11. Applying changes in the vegetation cover, which more realistically represent the biogeography of the interglacial time slices (including expansion of vegetation over North Africa and in the northern hemisphere mid and high latitudes), has crucial impact on the global interglacial climates. Over Siberia, annual mean SAT increases by 2-3 K in all interglacial experiments compared to PI. Globally, the MH becomes 0.4 K warmer, the LIG becomes 0.6 K warmer, and the MIS 11 becomes 0.8 K warmer relative to PI. Polar amplification is much more pronounced after applying the vegetation changes, with an annual mean warming of 5-6 K over the Arctic Ocean at the MH, up to 9 K at the LIG, and 7-8 K at MIS 11. The large polar temperature changes during the LIG are associated with a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean. The vegetation changes also impact the interglacial atmospheric water cycles, most pronounced in Northern Hemisphere monsoon regions. In particular, the West African monsoon is substantially amplified in response to the expansion of vegetation. Physical processes causing these changes are analyzed. In summary, the results suggest that the intricate interplay between climate and vegetation stands as one of the fundamental mechanisms shaping the dynamics of past interglacials, which needs to be more carefully addressed in future model studies.
A combined modern training set from three salt marshes and tidal flats of Mainland, Shetland Islands, as a tool for local relative sea-level reconstruction
Authors: Scheder Juliane , Dawson Sue , Goovaerts Thomas , Engel Max , Costa Pedro , Van Daele Maarten , Nahar Rikza , De Batist Marc , Heyvaert Vanessa A.M.
Published: March 2024

High-resolution reconstructions of the relative sea-level (RSL) evolution are important for managing coastal-protection challenges and for hazard assessment. For the determination of palaeo-tsunami run-up heights in the Shetland Islands, United Kingdom, within the NORSEAT Project (Storegga and beyond – North Sea tsunami deposits offshore Shetland Islands), RSL reconstructions far beyond existing data are needed. Existing RSL data is limited to two time frames (ca. 7900–5990 cal BP and around 3500 cal BP) and include a large vertical error (approximately ±8 m around the time of the Storegga tsunami). More detailed Holocene RSL reconstructions shall be enabled by a combined modern training set of foraminifers and ostracods from three different voes of Shetlands largest island, Mainland. The training set serves as a basis for a RSL transfer function, which relates the elevation of surface samples to the modern microfaunal associations. This transfer function will be a valuable tool for high-resolution RSL reconstructions from the Holocene stratigraphic record around the Shetland Islands as shown by previous studies in Northern Germany.Investigations of 44 surface samples, which were collected from three salt marshes and adjacent tidal flats (south Dales Voe, Dury Voe and north Dales Voe), are in progress. First results show highly diverse foraminifer and ostracod associations in the salt marsh and very low occurrence of microfauna in the very coarse parts of the tidal flat. Small areas of very muddy tidal flats suggest higher abundances than the latter. Aside from the investigation of the microfaunal distribution, analyses of environmental parameters like the grain-size distribution and the carbonate and organic matter content are still in progress. Multivariate statistics will determine the main influencing factor of the microfauna distribution between these environmental proxies and the elevation relative to mean sea level.If the training set is feasible for a RSL transfer function, in a next step, it will be applied to Holocene deposits from offshore cores around Shetland that were conducted within the NORSEAT Project. The resulting new RSL reconstructions will enable more accurate determination of run ups of the currently identified palaeo-tsunamis (Storegga and two younger events). 
Dynamic spatiotemporal migration of cross-sectoral cascading drought events across climate zones 
Authors: Tian Lu , Huang Jingshui , Disse Markus
Published: March 2024

Anthropogenic global warming is exacerbating the frequency and severity of extreme droughts, reinforcing cascading effects across sectors and increasing the urgency of research on the systematic risks associated with droughts. Current research on cascading droughts is predominantly constrained to examining the temporal delay response of cross-sectoral droughts within single characterized regions or climate zones. The dynamic spatio-temporal migration of cross-system cascading drought chains across multiple climate zones remains unexplored. In this study, we rely on the highly precise event-by-event link between multiple types of droughts and make the first attempt to investigate the dynamic spatio-temporal migration trajectory of cross-system cascading droughts across multiple climate zones in Central Asia, including arid desert (AD), arid steppe (AS), temperate (T), cold (C) and alpine (Alp). The results capture for the first time the apparent spatial aggregation state of cascading drought events in the three climate zone combinations AD+AS, AD+AS+C+Alp, and AD+AS+Alp. The transition zone, from the alpine to the arid desert (AD+AS+C+Alp), represents a climate zone combination with the highest systematic drought risk zone, marked by the highest occurrence of the four-system cascading drought event involving droughts of precipitation, evaporation, runoff, and soil moisture. The typical cascading drought pattern shows that the hotspot gradually moves away from the Alp and C to AD and AS climate zones, implying the effect of the interplay between different climate zones on drought evolution. Our findings recommend that early warnings of systematic drought risk should not be limited to temporal links alone but should include both spatial and temporal aspects.
Underestimation of desert dust ingested by aircraft from the CAMS reanalysis compared to CALIOP retrievals
Authors: Ryder Claire , Bezier Clement , Dacre Helen , Clarkson Rory , Amiridis Vassilis , Marinou Eleni , Proestakis Emmanouil , Kipling Zak , Benedetti Angela , Parrington Mark , Remy Samuel , Vaughan Mark
Published: March 2024

Atmospheric mineral dust aerosol constitutes a threat to aircraft engines from deterioration of internal components. Here we fulfil an outstanding need to quantify engine dust ingestion at worldwide airports.  The vertical distribution of dust is of key importance since ascent/descent rates and engine power both vary with altitude and affect dust ingestion. We use representative jet engine power profile information combined with vertically and seasonally varying dust concentrations to calculate the ‘dust dose’ ingested by an engine over a single ascent or descent. Using the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) model reanalysis, we calculate climatological and seasonal dust dose at 10 airports for 2003-2019. Dust doses are mostly largest in summer for descent, with the largest at Delhi (6.6 g). Beijing’s largest dose occurs in spring (2.9 g). Holding patterns at altitudes coincident with peak dust concentrations can lead to substantial quantities of dust ingestion, resulting in a larger dose than the take-off, climb and taxi phases. We compare dust dose calculated from CAMS to spaceborne lidar observations from two dust datasets derived from the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP). In general, seasonal and spatial patterns are similar between CAMS and CALIOP though large variations in dose magnitude are found, with CAMS producing lower doses by a mean factor of 2.4±0.5, particularly when peak dust concentration is very close to the surface. We show that mitigating action to reduce engine dust damage could be achieved, firstly by moving arrivals and departures to after sunset and secondly by altering the altitude of the holding pattern away from that of the local dust peak altitude, reducing dust dose by up to 44% or 41% respectively.
Scaling and intermittent properties of atmospheric and oceanic turbulent pCO2 time series and their difference
Authors: Robache Kévin , Schmitt François G. , Huang Yongxiang
Published: March 2024

The oceans interact and exchange CO2 with the atmosphere through different processes that form the biological and physical pumps. The atmospheric and oceanic partial pressures of CO2 are therefore chemical tracers impacted by numerous forcing processes, including turbulence. Turbulence thus has an impact on the fluctuations of pCO2 and on their difference, the sign of which determines the direction of the air-sea flux of CO2.Here, we used a published database (Sutton et al., 2019) to study the scaling properties of sea temperature, sea salinity, atmospheric and oceanic pCO2 and their difference ∆pCO2 time series recorded at 38 locations every 3 hours. Fourier spectral analysis revealed scaling for ranges between 3 days and 3 months approximately. The statistics of spectral slopes over this scaling range has been considered. Then, empirical mode decomposition and Hilbert spectral analysis were used to study the intermittency properties of the time series of 3 buoys having a large enough data points. For all three locations the intermittent multifractal properties of pCO2 were considered. Some main parameters were extracted assuming a lognormal multifractal model.
Spatial and temporal drought analysis in susceptible agroecosystems: the case of Thessaly region, Greece
Authors: Sakellariou Stavros , Spiliotopoulos Marios , Alpanakis Nicolaos , Faraslis Ioannis , Sidiropoulos Pantelis , Tziatzios Georgios , Karoutsos George , Dalezios Nicolas , Dercas Nicholas
Published: March 2024

Drought consists one of the most critical environmental hazards for the viability and productive development of crops. This paper is focused on the application of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for drought analysis and classification. The SPI is a commonly used drought index that calculates the difference between a given time period's precipitation and its long-term average. The objectives of the study are to conduct a spatiotemporal drought analysis, estimate drought severity using the SPI, identify both dry and wet periods, classify drought using the SPI, classify the degree of drought/wetness conditions using a classification scheme for multiple timescales, and calculate and classify SPI12 for each month from 1981-2020. The study area is Thessaly, Greece, which is the country’s largest agricultural productive region facing water availability problems. The innovation of this paper is the spatiotemporal drought analysis through the use of CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) instead of conventional meteorological data, avoiding the use of a prevailed sparse weather network, and the difficulties arising from that. The study shows that the region has faced two severe years of drought in 1988 and 1989, which led to moderate and extremely drought conditions, respectively. In contrast, extremely wet conditions were observed in 2002-2003, while 2009-2010 experienced moderately wet conditions. In this context, the mapping of spatial and seasonal variability across the study area permits more targeted measures instead of horizontal policies.Keywords: drought; SPI; CHIRPS; Thessaly; Greece; desertification
Lightweight In-Situ Analysis of snow density and accumulation
Authors: von Drachenfels Johanna , Kjær Helle Astrid , Lindsey-Clark Josephine
Published: March 2024

A critical factor in accurate Surface Mass Balance predictions of the Greenland Ice Sheet is the availability of spatially and temporally extensive snow accumulation data (Montgomery et al., 2018). Currently, this data remains deficient due to incomplete geographical coverage and poor temporal resolution (Sheperd et al., 2012).An innovative approach to expanding the existing dataset is the utilization of the LISA box: a portable Lightweight In-Situ Analysis system designed for fast and straightforward snow and ice core measurements (Kjær et al., 2021), which speeds up the delivery of the results. With the LISA box, the sample cores are melted, and continuous flow analysis of chemical impurities and conductivity in the meltwater reveals annual peaks and climatic horizons. This information allows for dating of the single ice and snow layers. The registration of the melt speed furthermore permits the determination of the layer thickness, while the layer density can be inferred with an additional measurement of the meltwater flowrate. By combining these insights, past accumulation rates, as indicated by the volume of annually deposited snow, can be reconstructed.Here we present updates to the existing LISA box enhancing its abilities to further analyse for density variations in snow and firn cores.
Predictability and mean state of the MLT: Importance of resolving gravity waves
Authors: Garny Hella
Published: March 2024

The circulation in the Mesosphere / Lower Thermosphere (MLT) region is strongly influenced by atmospheric gravity waves that propagate upward from the lower atmosphere. So far, most global models of the MLT have to parameterize gravity waves, given horizontal model resolution on the order of 100 km. It becomes increasingly clear that the simplified approximations of gravity wave parameterizations, including their inability to simulate gravity wave generation within the middle atmosphere, are a cause for biases in the simulation of MLT circulation, holding back scientific progress in understanding, predicting and projecting MLT circulation.In this study, the extended German Weather and Climate model UA-ICON is used to demonstrate the effects of moving from a coarse model resolution to a gravity-wave permitting resolution on the simulation of the mean state of the MLT and its predictability. An episode of austral winter to spring is simulated with two UA-ICON set-ups, one with about 160 km horizontal grid spacing and 120 vertical levels from the ground to 150 km height (“coarse resolution”), and one with about 20 km horizontal grid spacing and 250 vertical levels (“high resolution”). The high-resolution set-up is able to resolve gravity waves with horizontal wave length up to about 200 km. Resolving gravity waves is essential to simulate the mean state of MLT circulation in austral winter: while in the coarse resolution model, zonal mean winds around 100 km height are easterly, the high-resolution model version simulates westerlies in this region, in agreement with observations. It is shown that wave forcing by resolved waves with horizontal scales below 2000 km, which are only resolved in the high-resolution model version, impose an eastward force on the zonal mean winds, and thus are essential to maintain the westerly winds. Next to the mean state, the two model set-ups are utilized to demonstrate the effects of resolving gravity waves on estimations of the intrinsic predictability of the MLT region: experiments with imposed small perturbations in the initial conditions show that error growth in the MLT region is substantially faster in the high-resolution simulation with resolved gravity waves compared to the coarse resolution simulation. Thus, the intrinsic predictability time-scale, after which the MLT becomes intrinsically unpredictable, is vastly overestimated by a factor of 3-4 in simulations that do not resolve gravity waves. Overall, this work stresses the importance of exploring high-resolution simulations of the MLT in order to make progress on our understanding of MLT dynamics.
Increased sensitivity of microbial respiration to soil water content in a fertilized boreal forest
Authors: Ťupek Boris , Lehtonen Aleksi , Manzoni Stefano , Baldrian Petr , Adamczyk Bartosz , Mäkipää Raisa
Published: March 2024

Projections of soil carbon (C) models are known to underestimate soil C stocks in boreal soils with higher nutrient status which is likely because they do not account for effects of soil nutrient status on the kinetics of microbial respiration and their sensitivities to environmental conditions. Here we evaluated the effects of long-term N addition (once per decade since 1960 until 2020) on soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and its dependence on soil temperature and moisture in an originally N limited boreal Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) forest.We measured Rh, soil temperature and soil moisture biweekly during the vegetative seasons of 2021-2023 in both fertilized and control forests. We fitted Rh rates to soil temperature and moisture separately for the control and N fertilization treatment using parametric non-linear regression models and non-parametric machine learning (boosted regression tree) models.The functional dependencies of Rh were similar between fertilized and control forests for soil temperature but differed for soil moisture. In the N fertilized forest soil, Rh increased rapidly from dry conditions towards a soil moisture optimum followed by a clear reduction in wet conditions. In contrast, in the N limited forest soil, Rh mainly increased with soil moisture.The models based solely on temperature (assuming identical and non-limiting effect of moisture) predicted higher annual Rh than the models accounting for soil moisture effects. Thus, to avoid overestimation of soil CO2 emissions and underestimation of soil C stocks accumulation in fertile boreal soils, it is crucial to link the soil moisture dependencies in soil C models to nutrient status. The different Rh response to moisture between N limited and N fertilized soils could be related to different levels of enzyme activities and contrasting microbial traits found by other studies.
A multiproxy comparison of Scots pine wood in western Norway 
Authors: Khumalo Wendy Hlengiwe , Svarva Helene Løvstrand , Nadeau Marie-Josée , Seiler Martin , Philippsen Bente , Kallevik Matias , Collet Dominik
Published: March 2024

With the onset of anthropogenic climate change, the ClimateCultures project aims to tackle the question “What happened the last time we encountered rapid climate change?” using evidence from tree rings and historical records to paint a picture of the natural impacts and societal responses in Norway during the Little Ice Age. More specifically, we aim to investigate short-lived extreme cold events in the 1700’s. This calls for a more regional scale to account for complex climate drivers over a mountainous country with regional climatic differences and local communities’ responses. Here we present a case study of Scots pine wood collected in western Norway, a region known for mild temperatures and high precipitation (relative to average Norwegian climate), and compare various tree ring proxies including ring width, Blue Intensity and stable oxygen isotopes. While this record does not extend to the 1700’s, we can consider the merits and limitations of each proxy when compared to the instrumental records. This study will provide a basis for climate reconstructions, particularly focusing on hydroclimate signals in Norwegian chronologies. 
Data access patterns of km-scale resolution models
Authors: Zimmermann Janos , Ziemen Florian , Kölling Tobias
Published: March 2024

Climate models produce vast amounts of output data. In the nextGEMS project, we have run the ICON model at 5 km resolution for 5 years, producing about 750 TB of output data from one simulation. To ease analysis, the data is stored at multiple temporal and spatial resolutions. The dataset is now analyzed by more than a hundred scientists on the DKRZ levante system. As disk space is limited, it is crucial to obtain information, which parts of this dataset are accessed frequently and need to be kept on disk, and which parts can be moved to the tape archive and only be fetched on request.By storing the output as zarr files with many small files for the individual data chunks, and logging file access times, we obtained a detailed view of more than half a year of access to the nextGEMS dataset, even going to regional level for a given variable and time step. The evaluation of those access patterns offers the possibility to optimize various aspects such as caching, chunking, and archiving. Furthermore, it provides valuable information for designing future output configurations.In this poster, we present the observed access patterns and discuss their implications for our chunking and archiving strategy. Leveraging an interactive visualization tool, we explore and compare access patterns, distinguishing frequently accessed subsets, sparsely accessed variables, and preferred resolutions. We furthermore provide information on how we analyzed the data access to enable other users to follow our approach.
Uncovering life and planetary co-evolution through the genomic record
Authors: Magnabosco Cara , Rodriguez Paula , Husain Fatima , Paoletti Maddie , Parsons Chris , Payette Jack , Swartz Sarah , Tamre Erik , Fournier Greg
Published: March 2024

The maintenance of Earth’s habitability over geologic timescales is largely driven by the metabolisms and ecologies of bacteria and archaea. In this context, the role that microorganisms have played throughout major environmental transitions during the Archean and Proterozoic Eons are especially noteworthy. The “genomic record” represents the accumulated adaptations to planetary change maintained within the collective genetic pool of life. In this presentation, we will describe how the genomic record can be used to improve our understanding of microbial natural history and present six broadly applicable principles to aid in the investigation these complex questions. This framework will then be used to guide a a meta-analysis of microbial genomes derived from collections large metagenomic databases across diverse environments to illustrate how specific environmental variables drive the microbial diversity patterns we see today.
Towards radiatively interactive prognostic aerosol in ECMWF NWP forecasts
Authors: Checa-Garcia Ramiro , Hogan Robin , Stockdale Tim , Flemming Johannes , Senan Retish
Published: March 2024

An important frontier in improving numerical weather prediction (NWP) is the introduction of radiatively interactive prognostic composition species. The CAMS (Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service) configuration of the ECMWF model includes 123 chemical species and 16 aerosols as prognostic variables, but incurs a computational cost of around a factor of 10 compared to the standard NWP configuration with an aerosol climatology.  In this talk we describe our work to test different approaches to capture the benefits of prognostic aerosols, but at much reduced computational cost. We first focus on our new “hybrid aerosol” configuration, in which selected species are made prognostic and the remainder are treated by a climatology. With seven prognostic aerosols (three sizes of mineral dust, and hydrophilic/hydrophobic black carbon and organic matter), the additional computational cost is reduced from around a factor of 10 to around a factor of 1.25. Evaluation of forecasts at tropical, sub-tropical and Mediterranean AERONET stations reveals that this combination of species is able to capture the daily variation in aerosol optical depth (AOD) almost as well as the full CAMS configuration at most sites. Global simulations have been performed at resolutions from 4 to 80 km, both with and without parameterized deep convection. While the atmospheric aerosol burden varies little with resolution, higher resolutions show much greater fidelity in capturing the spatial detail of aerosol plumes near isolated sources such as forest fires. A preliminary comparison will be presented between the hybrid aerosol scheme and an alternative “dual configuration” approach to reducing the cost of prognostic aerosols, which involves running the full CAMS chemistry scheme but at a much reduced resolution to the meteorological variables, with interpolation between resolutions whenever required. We have also used the full CAMS chemistry scheme to develop a new aerosol climatology that incorporates the long-term trends in anthropogenic aerosol load back to 1950; this is planned to be used in the next ECMWF reanalysis, ERA6. Finally, the impact of the various aerosol configurations on medium-range forecast scores will be presented.
Visible or negligible? Impacts of the 17th century volcanic eruption on climate and society in early modern Switzerland
Authors: Bartlome Niklaus Emanuel , Warren Richard Michael
Published: March 2024

The considerable research on the effects of the 1815 Tambora eruption (Behringer 2015) has shown not only to what extent large tropical volcanic eruptions can transform a society but also how advantageous it is for research when geosciences and humanities interlink.While single eruption events such as Parker in 1640/1641 have already been analysed (Stoffel et al. 2022), there has been less focus on the potential teleconnections of multiple eruptions on one single study area. This paper looks at the climatic and societal impacts of three tropical volcanic eruptions – Huaynaputina (1600), Komaga-take/Parker (1640/1641) and the 1690s unknown event – on Fribourg, a region in the western part of the Swiss Confederation.To answer this research question meticulously, a transdisciplinary approach is required – both in method and sources. Daring to bridge geosciences and humanities, as part of the VICES research project we developed a data processing tool called ClimeApp, which facilitates the usage of climate data and makes transdisciplinary interaction more accessible, especially for researchers from the humanities (http://mode-ra.unibe.ch/climeapp).Using ClimeApp, the climatological impact of these 17th century eruptions will be assessed with modern climate reconstruction data from the state-of-the-art ModE-RA project (Valler et al. 2024). Novel archive material from municipal institutions – such as the Hôpital des bourgeois de Fribourg – allows us subsequently to determine the annually recorded harvest yields especially of the viti- and caseiculture. Additionally, essential archival sources, such as the Ratsmanuale (protocols) and the Mandatenbücher (regulations), depict whether the municipality of Fribourg deployed any measures or coping mechanisms in the wake of these volcanic eruptions. This combination of climatological data and historical sources enables us to look for potential interrelations between these climate anomalies and the effect they had on society.The paper exemplary highlights on one side the advantages of research collaboration between two disciplines and on the other side sheds light on the possible impacts of multiple volcanic eruptions spanned over the period of almost hundred years on the same study region.
Pre-Cenozoic cyclostratigraphy and paleoclimate responses to astronomical forcing
Authors: De Vleeschouwer David , Percival Lawrence M.E. , Wichern Nina M.A. , Batenburg Sietske J.
Published: March 2024

Astronomical insolation forcing is well established as the underlying metronome of Quaternary ice ages and Cenozoic climate changes. Yet its effects on earlier eras (Mesozoic, Palaeozoic and pre-Cambrian) are less understood. In this Review, we explore how cyclostratigraphy can help to distinguish climate modes over the pre-Cenozoic era and aid our understanding of climate responses to astronomical forcing over geological time. The growing uncertainties with geologic age mean that pre-Cenozoic astronomical solutions cannot be used as tuning targets. However, they can be used as metronomes to identify the pacing of distinct climate states. Throughout the pre-Cenozoic, global average temperature differences between climate states were even more extreme (5–32 °C) than in the Cenozoic (14–27 °C), and these, combined with an evolving biosphere and changing plate tectonics, led to distinct Earth-system responses to astronomical forcing. The late Palaeozoic icehouse, for example, is characterized by a pronounced response to eccentricity, caused by nonlinear cryosphere and carbon-cycle behaviour. By contrast, the Devonian warmhouse and the Late Cretaceous hothouse featured recurrent episodes of marine anoxia that may have been paced by astronomical forcing. Formally defining 405,000-year eccentricity cycles as chronostratigraphic units (astrochronozones) throughout the Phanerozoic eon will enable a more comprehensive understanding of how astronomical forcing has shaped Earth’s climate over geologic time.
A Multi-Fidelity Ensemble Kalman Filter with a machine learned surrogate model
Authors: van der Voort Jeffrey , Verlaan Martin , Kekkonen Hanne
Published: March 2024

One of the disadvantages of oceanographic models is that they can be very computationally expensive. When combined with data assimilation, dynamical approaches such as the EnKF become expensive as they need a large number of ensemble members and thus model runs. In this work we investigate the use of a Multi-Fidelity Ensemble Kalman Filter (MF-EnKF), where the lower fidelity model is a machine learned surrogate model and the high fidelity model is the original full model. The idea behind this is to use an ensemble of a few but expensive full model runs, combined with an ensemble of many cheap but less accurate surrogate model runs. In this way we can reach similar or increased accuracy with less full model runs and thus less computational time. We investigate the performance by testing the approach on a simple atmospheric model, namely the Lorenz-96 model, and an oceanographic model, namely the Quasi-Geostrophic model. Results show that the MF-EnKF outperforms the EnKF for the same number of full model runs and that the MF-EnKF can reach similar or improved accuracy with less full model runs.
Lessons from the Nuestro Rio app: Reflections on exploring local perspectives on water quality in the Peruvian Andes
Authors: Rangecroft Sally , Clason Caroline
Published: March 2024

Scientific research around water security and water quality in the Peruvian Andes often excludes local perspective and knowledge, yet local water users not only directly depend on local water sources, but are also sensitive to changes in water availability, quality, and ecosystems over time. Increasing community involvement and representation is essential for improved understanding and more holistic, sustainable water resource management, however more participatory approaches with local communities often have a myriad of logistical and project constraints. Through a small GCRF funded pilot study, as part of an interdisciplinary and international research team we created and rolled out a smartphone photo elicitation app, “Nuestro Rio”, as a novel tool to gather insights into local perceptions of water quality in the Rio Santa basin, Peruivan Andes (2020-2022). Here we consider the ability of technological approaches such as our Nuestro Rio app to help address some key issues and improve research outcomes to the benefit of the research team and local communities, whilst reflecting on the challenges experienced. Sharing the lessons learnt from pilot projects like Nuestro Rio can help contribute to the growing dialogue on citizen science and participatory approaches, whilst also providing support and guidance for those currently planning or exploring similar research tools and projects.
Disentangling the water quality dimension of the Water-Energy-Food nexus in the Adige river basin (Italy)
Authors: Sperotto Anna , Vogt Mathilda , Balbi Stefano , Villa Ferdinando , Critto Andrea
Published: March 2024

Understanding and effectively managing water quality within the context of global changes necessitates a nexus approach that embraces the interconnected facets of the water-energy-food-environment system. This perspective acknowledges the intricate interplay between diverse processes—physical, chemical, biological, ecological—and human activities that collectively influence water quality. Climate change can impact these components individually and interactively, leading to cascading effects. Only by considering the whole system, including both natural and human factors, we can capture complexity understanding multiple stressors and feedback loops that affect water quality.One of the major challenges of adopting a nexus approach for water quality assessment is primarily represented by the need to access and combine data and model from many different scientific domains which often remains compartmentalized in silos, to pre-defined scales and fields, into a single, logically consistent integrated framework of analysis. Leveraging integrative technology like Artificial Intelligence emerges as a viable solution to foster this integration permitting to maximize the value of available information. A systemic integrated model for the assessment of the conjoined impacts of climate and land use changes on water quality has been developed and tested at the catchment scale in the Adige river basin in Northern Italy. The model is developed using ARIES (Artificial Intelligence for Environment and Sustainability), an open-source Artificial Intelligence modeler which, using semantics and machine reasoning, allows independently developed models and data to be integrated and automatically assembled into workflows running at the scale most appropriated for the context of analysis. Once trained and validated the model permits to: i) predict the impact of different climate change and land use scenarios on water and ecological quality indicators (e.g. nutrients, suspended solids, water temperature, dissolved oxygen, ecological status); ii) identify sources and hot spots of pollution related with different economic sectors in the catchment; iii) test pollution reduction measures permitting to minimise trade-offs between economic activities and ecosystem health. By presenting the preliminary outcomes of pilot application, this analysis aims to showcase the potential of AI-driven approaches in enhancing data reusability and interoperability, crucial for comprehensively addressing environmental quality challenges and modelling intricate anthropic-environmental interactions at the catchment scale.