A Learning Fuzzy Cognitive Map (LFCM) Approach to Predict Student Performance
Authors: Mansouri Taha , ZareRavasan Ahad , Ashrafi Amir 
Published: May 2021

Aim/Purpose: This research aims to present a brand-new approach for student performance prediction using the Learning Fuzzy Cognitive Map (LFCM) approach.

Background: Predicting student academic performance has long been an important research topic in many academic disciplines. Different mathematical models have been employed to predict student performance. Although the available sets of common prediction approaches, such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) and regression, work well with large datasets, they face challenges dealing with small sample sizes, limiting their practical applications in real practices.

Methodology: Six distinct categories of performance antecedents are adopted here as course characteristics, LMS characteristics, student characteristics, student engagement, student support, and institutional factors, along with measurement items within each category. Furthermore, we assessed the student’s overall performance using three items of student satisfaction score, knowledge construction level, and student GPA. We have collected longitudinal data from 30 postgraduates in four subsequent semesters and analyzed data using the Learning Fuzzy Cognitive Map (LFCM) technique.

Contribution: This research proposes a brand new approach, Learning Fuzzy Cognitive Map (LFCM), to predict student performance. Using this approach, we identified the most influential determinants of student performance, such as student engagement. Besides, this research depicts a model of interrelations among the student performance determinants.

Findings: The results suggest that the model reasonably predicts the incoming sequence when there is a limited sample size. The results also reveal that students’ total online time and the regularity of learning interval in LMS have the largest effect on overall performance. The student engagement category also has the highest direct effect on student’s overall performance.

Recommendations for Practitioners: Academic institutions can use the results and approach developed in this paper to identify students’ performance antecedents, predict the performance, and establish action plans to resolve the shortcomings in the long term. Instructors can adjust their learning methods based on the feedback from students in the short run on the operational level.

Recommendation for Researchers: Researchers can use the proposed approach in this research to deal with the problems in other domains, such as using LMS for organizational/institutional education. Besides, they can focus on specific dimensions of the proposed model, such as exploring ways to boost student engagement in the learning process.

Impact on Society: Our results revealed that students are at the center of the learning process. The degree to which they are dedicated to learning is the most crucial determinant of the learning outcome. Therefore, learners should consider this finding in order the gain value from the learning process.

Future Research: As a potential for future works, the proposed approach could be used in other contexts to test its applicability. Future studies could also improve the performance level of the proposed LFMC model by tuning the model’s elements.