bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Modelling the Interaction of Fundamental and Portfolio Exchange Rate Behaviour: An Application to Australia and the ASEAN3
Authors: Lim Guay C.
Published: March 2003

This paper explores the interaction of fundamental and portfolio factors in the determination of the exchange rate. The weights on the factors evolve endogenously as a function of relative fundamental and portfolio errors. The model also generates exchange rate mixture distributions that may be skewed, leptokurtic or bimodal and as such can explain small and large changes endogenously. The model is applied to the exchange rates of Australia and the ASEAN3 to examine the role of fundamental and portfolio behaviour, especially over the 1997/98 currency crisis period.
Training and Technology Transfer
Authors: Campbell Neil , Vousden Neil
Published: March 2003

This paper analyses technology transfer from a multinational corporation (MNC) to a developing economy via training of local workers by the MNC. The paper analyses the determinants of the level of training by the MNC assuming a local entrant can subsequently hire MNC–trained workers and compete with the MNC. It is shown that a small training subsidy paid by the host government may cause the MNC to switch from entry–deterring behaviour to entry–accommodating behaviour. Such a subsidy will cause an increase in the number of skilled workers but may increase or decrease the domestic welfare of the developing country.
The Game is Not the Same: The Demand for Test Match Cricket in Australia
Authors: Bhattacharya Mita , Smyth Russell
Published: March 2003

We estimate a cricket demand equation for test matches played in Australia. Consistent with previous studies of the demand for professional sport, demand is specified as a function of both economic factors (such as admission price, income and market size) and match specific factors (such as the uncertainty of outcome, weather conditions and the presence of star players). Our results suggest that match specific factors, rather than economic factors, influence attendance. We compare our results to those of previous studies for Australia and England which estimate the demand for cricket.
Asia–Pacific Telecommunications Liberalisation and Productivity Performance
Authors: Madden Gary , Savage Scott J. , Ng Jason
Published: March 2003

This study examines the growth in total factor productivity (TFP) of 12 Asia–Pacific telecommunications carriers for the period 1987 through 1990. Carriers are chosen to represent the stages of telecommunications liberalisation identified by the International Telecommunication Union (1995a). A model relating TFP growth to output growth, changes in output mix, technology change and market competition and private ownership is estimated on a unique data set obtained from telecommunications carrier annual reports. Empirical results show competition, private ownership, technology change and scale economies improve carrier TFP growth.
Towards an Understanding of Some Business Cycle Characteristics
Authors: Pagan Adrian
Published: March 2003

For many years economists have debated the ‘causes’ of business cycles. Very little of this analysis has been closely matched with business cycle characteristics as measured by NBER‐type dating methods. After summarising data on business cycle characteristics for a wide variety of countries, the article shows that an extremely simple statistical model of output growth, viz. that it is uncorrelated from month to month or quarter to quarter, produces business cycles that are close to those seen in practice. The demonstration involves the analysis of data simulated from this simple statistical model as well as some analytical work using a standard definition of a recession as being two quarters of negative growth. As well as explaining the average length of a cycle this model also accounts for the asymmetry between the lengths of expansions and contractions through the relative magnitudes of the trend rate of growth of the economy and the standard deviation of the shocks that impinge upon it.
Taxation Reform: Some Economic Issues
Authors: Freebairn John
Published: March 2003

The Australian system of Commonwealth and State taxes is in need of comprehensive reform. It fails the criteria of neutrality, horizontal equity and simplicity, it is not as progressive as often thought, and the future revenue base is declining. Many of the problems stem from the absence of comprehensive tax bases as applied to income, expenditure and assets, and related choice options are subjected to very different effective tax burdens. Important choice options facing different effective tax rates include: work and leisure; consumption and saving; different saving and investment options; form of labour remuneration; different ways of production; the mix of goods and services produced and consumed; and, domestic or overseas location.

A comprehensive income tax base is required, especially as applied to the taxation of capital income. The options of a nominal income, real income or expenditure base are explored.

It is argued that reform of indirect taxes proceed along two lines. The general revenue raising purpose leads to a comprehensive base of final consumption expenditure at a single rate. Then, additional specific taxes for user pays purposes, for example for roads, and for externalities, for example tobacco, set at the supply cost or net externality would be applied.

There are conflicting arguments for and against changing the tax mix away from income to expenditure.
The WTO and Regional Trading Agreements
Authors: Sampson Gary P.
Published: March 2003

This article describes the spread of regional trading arrangements, the rules within the WTO for regional trading arrangements and the possiblility of changing these rules.
Census Unit Record Data
Authors: Flatau Paul
Published: March 2003

This article reviews Census record file releases (1981, 1986, 1991) and surveys the extensive literature based on these data sets.
Asia’s Economic Miracle: An Historical Perspective
Authors: Dowling Malcolm
Published: March 2003

With emphasis on the importance of public policy, this article reviews and assesses the reasons for rapid economic growth in the developing economies of Asia during the past five decades and discusses challenges for the future.
The Distributional Effects of Inflation in Australia 1980–1995
Authors: Creedy John , Van De Ven Justin
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the distributional effects of price changes in Australia over the period 1980 to 1995, using equivalent variations and equivalent incomes. The Linear Expenditure System is applied to each of a range of income groups rather than using a single set of parameters. The price changes are found to impose a relatively higher burden on lower income groups in some years, although in other years the higher income groups were affected relatively more. The distribution of equivalent incomes has the highest inequality in years of high overall inflation. However, the effects on inequality are low: the highest increase in inequality as a result of differential price changes is less than one per cent.
Entry Deterrence and the Efficient Component Pricing Rule
Authors: Williams Philip L.
Published: March 2003

This note comments on the article ‘Entry and Entry Deterrence under the New Access Code’ by Amiti and Maddock, published in the Australian Economic Review, 3rd quarter 1996. It is found that Amiti and Maddock do not show that efficient component pricing by an incumbent vertically‐integrated monopolist will deter socially efficient entry of a new competitor.
The Social Return to Apprenticeship Training
Authors: Dockery A.M. , Norris Keith , Stromback Thorsten
Published: March 2003

This paper draws together findings from a recent program of research to estimate the social rate of return to apprenticeship training and how the costs of training are distributed. It is estimated that 53 per cent of the costs of training an apprentice are borne by the employer, 28 per cent by the public sector and 19 per cent by the apprentice. This is in sharp contrast to the prediction of economic theory that trainees pay for general training. The social rate of return to male apprenticeships is estimated to be 12.8 per cent. This is in line with previous estimates of the social rate of return to university degrees and supports the case for policy measures to increase the level of apprenticeship training. Reforms taking place under the New Apprenticeships Systems are intended to shift the distribution of costs in line with that predicted by theory by placing a greater cost burden on apprentices for general training and increasing the specificity of training. If employers’ willingness to offer apprenticeships has been a constraint, then these changes should stimulate apprenticeship training.
The Macroeconomic Implications of Current Fiscal Policy
Authors: Olekalns Nilss
Published: March 2003

Exchange rate changes and intertemporal consumption responses suggest that the short‐run impact of current fiscal policy on aggregate demand will be small. However, cuts to public expenditure may have undesirable long‐term consequences.
Intergenerational Redistribution and Fiscal Policy
Authors: Ablett John
Published: March 2003

This article argues that although the intergenerational stance of fiscal policy is hard to measure accurately, a goal of approximate generational balance is reasonable.
Fiscal Policy in Southeast Asia
Authors: Dowling Malcolm
Published: March 2003

Monetary policy was ineffective in dealing with the 1997 Asian macroeconomic crisis. Fiscal policy might have been more effective but was not considered for a variety of reasons.
Pricing and Access under National Competition Policy: The Case of the Natural Gas Pipeline Sector
Authors: Lawrey Roger
Published: March 2003

This paper reviews the development of open access and deregulation of trunk pipeline natural gas transportation in Australia and the United States. It investigates Australian policy developments in the setting of reference tariffs for firm service, but argues that the institutional arrangements for granting third party access, and the pricing of that access on a spot or interruptible basis, are at least as important as tariffs for firm service. The paper concludes that, in the absence of an established pipeline network, pipelines may have little incentive to price their excess capacity efficiently. In this case, attempts to promote an efficient allocative outcome through privatisation and open access in Australia are unlikely to be as successful as they have been in North America.
Are Consumption Taxes Regressive?
Authors: Creedy John
Published: March 2003

It is often argued that a general consumption tax is necessarily regressive, particularly because households with high incomes typically save relatively more than those with low incomes. This paper uses very simple tax models to examine the combination of income and consumption taxes. It suggests that it is preferable to consider the overall impact of all taxes and transfers rather than relating payments of a single tax to gross income, instead of the relevant tax base. Insofar as savings might be relevant, attention should be given to the income tax treatment of investment income.
Higher Education: Some Key Issues
Authors: Johnson David
Published: March 2003

In this introduction to the Policy Forum, some key issues in relation to proposed reform of the funding of higher education are outlined.
Discounts for Degrees: External Benefits and University Fees
Authors: Round David K. , Siegfried John J.
Published: March 2003

An efficient pricing system for university degrees should take into account the external benefits of degree programs. Results from a small sample survey comparing the external benefits of these programs are reported.
The Interaction of Tax and Social Security: Introduction and Overview
Authors: Dawkins Peter , Johnson David
Published: March 2003

this paper introduces the Policy Forum, identifying the need for reform of the interaction of the tax and social security systems and foreshadowing approaches to such reform.
Overcoming Anomalies in the Interaction of Tax and Social Security
Authors: Ingles David
Published: March 2003

This paper examines interactions between tax and social security which produce high effective tax rates, and suggests alternative approaches for rationalising such effects.
The ABS Survey of Employment and Unemployment Patterns
Authors: Le Anh T. , Miller Paul W.
Published: March 2003

This paper outlines the main features of the recent longitudinal survey that should provide a valuable information base for study of the Australian labour market.
Reforming the Labour Market: An Assessment of the UK Policies of the Thatcher Era
Authors: Gregory Mary
Published: March 2003

Under Thatcher the United Kingdom introduced a major program of labour market deregulation, claimed to have made the United Kingdom one of the least regulated labour markets in the OECD. This paper reviews the measures implemented and assesses their impact. Trade union membership declined steeply, and collective bargaining was curtailed even more sharply. The impact of the legislation curbing unions can be exaggerated, given that it coincided with wider developments. At the microeconomic level there is some evidence that the decline of unions contributed to productivity gains, but no clear evidence on employment, investment, profitability or wage premia. UK macroeconomic performance improved, but not dramatically. The most marked features of the more flexible labour markets are the growth of part‐time and temporary work, while job insecurity has become a common perception. The most striking development is the growth in earnings inequality, in part reflecting the weakening of collective bargaining. The evolution and consequences of inequality will be a major criterion in assessing the moves to labour market flexibility.
The Pricing and Management of Walking Tracks in Tasmania
Authors: Sibly Hugh
Published: March 2003

Walking tracks are an important component of the recreational use of Australian national parks. This paper applies economic theory to the issues associated with the management of walking tracks in Tasmania and, by implication, the rest of Australia. An economic model is developed to assess the implications of three policy regimes (pricing, quotas and unrestricted access) for the management of walking tracks. The model is calibrated to approximate (as best as practicable) the most popular of Tasmanian walking tracks, the Overland Track.
Australia at the Crossroads: Radical Free Market or Progressive Liberalism? Key Issues and Conclusions
Authors: Argy Fred
Published: March 2003

The author highlights the alternative choices open to Australian policy makers in their quest to achieve an acceptable balance between three potentially conflicting quality goals: improved efficiency (GDP per capita), full employment, and distributional equity.
Economic Policy and the Third Way
Authors: Latham Mark
Published: March 2003

The Third Way has been criticised for its lack of a distinctive economic policy. This paper develops a set of policy interventions consistent with both economic efficiency and social solidarity.
Towards a Hard‐Headed but Soft‐Hearted Approach to Economic and Social Policy: Comments on the Books by Fred Argy and Mark Latham
Authors: Dawkins Peter
Published: March 2003

The author argues for a hard‐headed and soft‐hearted approach to economic and social policy and finds much to commend in Fred Arg’s and Mark Latham’s books, while identifying a number of differences between them and making some criticisms. A particular concern is that neither is convincing on the central issue of unemployment.
Performance Indicators and Efficiency Measurement in Public Libraries
Authors: Worthington Andrew
Published: March 2003

A sample of one hundred and sixty‐eight New South Wales local government libraries is used to analyse the efficiency measures derived from the non‐parametric technique of data envelopment analysis. Depending upon the assumptions employed, 9.5 per cent of local governments were judged to be overall technically efficient in the provision of library services, 47.6 per cent as pure technically efficient, and 10.1 per cent as scale efficient. The study also analyses the posited linkages between comparative performance indicators, productive performance and non‐discretionary environmental factors under these different model formulations. The results indicate that the presence of exogenous factors and scale effects account for a major portion of the differences in observed efficiency between different groups of local governments.
Re‐employment after Retrenchment: Evidence from the TCF Industry Study
Authors: Weller Sally , Webber Michael
Published: March 2003

Industry Commission inquiries into the passenger motor vehicle and textiles clothing and footwear (TCF) industries have focused attention on the employment prospects of workers who are displaced as a result of structural change. The fact that older and less skilled workers face considerable difficulty finding new employment is now widely recognised. In this paper we examine the post‐retrenchment outcomes for workers retrenched from jobs in the TCF sector. The method of analysis–discrete‐time event history analysis–improves on previous studies of post‐retrenchment out‐comes because labour market conditions are incorporated into the statistical model, redressing the over‐emphasis on supply‐side issues that characterise previous research. The analysis shows that local and national labour market conditions are important determinants of employment outcomes. Personal characteristics, household circumstances and ascribed skill are also important as employers use these attributes to filter potential recruits. The analysis suggests that the utility of retraining is variable, enhancing the employability of workers with the best prospects (based on their personal characteristics and skills) before taking up retraining but decreasing the employment chances of those with poorer prospects.
Human Capital Theory and Education Policy in Australia
Authors: Quiggin John
Published: March 2003

The human capital model is the basis of neo‐classical analysis of labour markets, education and economic growth. However, education policy in Australia has been influenced by models based on screening theory and public choice theory which yield the policy implication that reductions in education spending are generally desirable. In this paper, the competing models, and the evidence supporting them, are surveyed. It is concluded that the human capital model is strongly supported by the available evidence. The predictions of screening models are generally not supported by empirical tests, except where they coincide with those of the human capital model. The main evidence supporting the public choice model, derived from the literature on educational production functions, is shown to be deficient. The principal policy conclusion of the paper is that the negative effects of recent cuts in education spending will outweigh any benefits achieved through reductions in public debt.
Incentives to Work: Replacement Ratios and the Cost of Job Loss among Indigenous Australians
Authors: Daly Anne , Hunter Boyd
Published: March 2003

The relationship between the social welfare system and employment incentives has received considerable attention in the literature. This paper uses data from the National Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Survey to consider these issues for indigenous Australians. Two measures are calculated: the replacement ratio which measures the expected gains from employment for those not in work; and the cost of job loss which measures the expected costsof becoming unemployed for those in employment. The estimates presented here show that the replacement ratio is higher for females than males and for those in a married or de facto relationship compared with single people. About 5 per cent of single males and females could expect a higher income from social security than from non‐Community Development Employment Projects (CDEP)scheme employment. Among those with dependent partners 24 per cent of males and 40 per cent of females looking for work could expect a higher income from social security than from non‐CDEP employment. The estimates of the cost of job loss, which include the effects of the duration of unemployment and the replacementratio, show a high cost for some indigenous Australians because of their expected longer duration of unemployment.
Changes in Indirect Taxes in Australia: A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis
Authors: Dixon Peter B. , Rimmer Maureen T.
Published: March 2003

Over the last thirty years, the effects of indirect taxation changes have been analysed using comparative static general equilibrium models. We use a new method to analyse current changes in Australia’s indirect taxes: dynamic computable general equilibrium modelling. Comparative static methods compare the situation in a given year (usually unspecified) with and without a policy change. The dynamic method shows the effects of a policy change through time. Comparative static methods are usually restricted to estimates of long‐run changes in allocative efficiency. The dynamic method provides information not only on efficiency but also on adjustment processes, including variations in employment. With our dynamic method, the effects of policy changes are analysed as deviations from explicit forecasts. We find that these forecasts are important for the policy results. For Australia’s current set of indirect tax changes, our main conclusions are (i) the short‐run employment effects depend critically on the wage response; (ii) merchandise exporters benefit but tourism is harmed; and (iii) the long‐run welfare effectsare likely to be negative, reflecting a decline in the terms of trade and increased compliance costs.
Immigration, Language and Multiculturalism in Australia
Authors: Chiswick Barry R. , Miller Paul W.
Published: March 2003

This paper uses a unique survey on multiculturalism in Australia to explore attitudes towards immigration and multiculturalism. The ethnic backgrounds of immigrants are shown not to matter as long as immigrants are perceived as wanting to become Australian, rather than remaining apart. Australians support government programs to assist the adjustment process, but oppose programs that encourage distinct language and cultural maintenance or foster linguistic/ethnic concentrations. The apprehension that Australians have towards multiculturalism is that they see it as a mechanism for separate cultural preservation. Linguistic enclaves are shown to reduce the acquisition of English language skills among immigrants, whereas positive attitudes among immigrants towards Australia are associated with greater proficiency in speaking, reading and writing English.
The Role of Undertakings in Regulatory Decision‐Making
Authors: Fels Teresa , Gans Joshua S. , King Stephen P.
Published: March 2003

The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) has powers under the Trade Practices Act 1974 (Cwlth) to accept undertakings from industry participants interested in taking actions, such as mergers, that may potentially be anticompetitive. This paper analyses the role of undertakings, focusing on horizontal mergers. We demonstrate that undertakings can provide an imperfectly in‐formed regulator with a credible signal of the positive social benefits of a proposed merger. In particular, if the merged parties undertake not to reduce their output following the merger, then the merger will only be proposed if it results in net social benefits. We discuss the practical issues of implementing a behavioural undertaking such as a minimum quantity commitment, and argue that these are no less difficult than other regulatory activities currently pursued by the ACCC.
Population Ageing and Projections of Government Social Outlays in Australia
Authors: Guest Ross S. , McDonald Ian M.
Published: March 2003

This paper makes new projections of government social outlays for Australia. The calculations suggest that government social outlays will increase considerably as a percentage of GDP over the next 50 years, by 7.3 per cent of GDP in the base case. This is a greater increase than that found by previous investigators. Over 60 per cent of this increase will occur between 2011 and 2031, the years when the baby boom generation retires. The major contribution to this increase will have come from increased government outlays on social security. Lower rates of net immigration are shown to yield an even larger increase in the percentage of government social outlays in GDP. The paper also considers the disincentive effect of taxation and the effect of in‐creasing the age of retirement. However, notwithstanding the trends suggested by the projections, the paper argues that there are a number of reasons to be sanguine about the implications of ageing on the share of government outlays in GDP.
Duration‐Specific Unemployment Outflow Rates and Labour Market Programs
Authors: Leeves Gareth
Published: March 2003

A matching function approach is used to investigate the macroeconomic effects of labour market program (LMP) commencements on unemployment outflows in Australia using unpublished data that classify commencements and outflows by duration of unemployment. The results indicate that LMPs have had significant effects on outflows from long‐term unemployment. However, the net impact of programs on these outflows suggests that the substitution and displacement effects associated with programs are high. These results are consistent with recent microeconomic research into the effects of LMP participation on individual transitions out of unemployment.
The Impact of a Goods and Services Tax on Product Market Competition
Authors: Damania R.
Published: March 2003

This paper explores the effects of a goods and services tax on the degree of competition in an oligopolistic industry and identifies a new mechanism through which the tax influences product market competition. The analysis focuses upon the effects of the tax in a concentrated industry and it is demonstrated that there exist circumstances under which the tax may promote competition by rendering tacit collusion more difficult.
Copyright, Parallel Imports and National Welfare: The Australian Market for Sound Recordings
Authors: Papadopoulos Theo
Published: March 2003

For more than a decade now there has been considerable, often heated, debate over the issue of the parallel importation of sound recordings into Australia. Citing anti‐competitive monopolistic distribution, an increasingly integrated global market and the challenges of new technologies, the Australian government recently passed the Copyright Amendment Act (No.2) 1998, which permits the parallel importation of ‘non‐infringing’ copies of a sound recording. This paper investigates the economic rationale underpinning this regulatory change and, using a partial equilibrium model, attempts to measure the likely welfare effects on consumers, copyright owners and the nation. In addition the paper examines the likely welfare impact of piracy within the new regulatory framework. This paper demonstrates that in a global music market characterised by exclusive territorial licences and price discrimination, the removal of parallel import restrictions by a small net‐importer of intellectual property may be welfare enhancing for the nation. This welfare gain is at the expense of largely foreign copyright owners.
Global Trade Liberalisation: Coordination and Coherence
Authors: Panitchpakdi Supachai
Published: March 2003

Globalisation is a major issue in international debate. The demonstrations in Seattle in 1999 showed that there is a high level of public concern over the growth of world trade and the institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and the World Trade Organisation (WTO), that have key roles in global trade and development. Much of the concern relates to developing countries and their place in the international economy. This article is an edited version of a paper presented by His Excellency Dr Supachai Panitchpakdi as the 2000 David Finch Lecture at the University of Melbourne on 5 July 2000. Dr Supachai is a key player in the development of the international economy and is the next Director General of the WTO. In his article, Dr Supachai addresses many of the concerns relating to globalisation and developing countries. He discusses the key issues facing the WTO and world trade in general, focusing on the need for both coordination and coherence in the development of international economic relations. In particular, he highlights the need for an inclusive approach to international trade liberalisation.
Some Economics of Safe Injecting Rooms
Authors: Clarke Harry
Published: March 2003

Provision of safe injecting rooms (SIRs), needle exchanges and other harm minimisation schemes reduce mortality and other health risks that illicit drug users experience. However, SIRs diminish incentives to refrain from the use of drugs by reducing the risk of a key harmful consequence of use, namely the user's death. Moreover, such harm minimisation efforts are socially costly. Economic approaches to drug management balance benefits from harm minimisation against policy costs and the costs associated with a failure of community drug abstinence. This article shows that the economic case for SIRs disappears with conservative assumptions about adverse incentive effects of reduced mortality risks even when only modest weight is placed on drug abstinence objectives.
Productivity Trends in Australian and New Zealand Manufacturing
Authors: Färe Rolf , Grosskopf Shawna , Margaritis Dimitri
Published: March 2003

The purpose of this article is to study relative trends in total factor productivity (TFP) between the Australian and New Zealand manufacturing sectors from 1986 to 1996. Since 1984 both economies have undergone major structural changes with varying degrees of speed and intensity. We use the Malmquist index to measure TFP growth and decompose it into an efficiency change and a technical change component. This decomposition provides extra insight on assessing relative productivity trends during a period of economic reform. The results indicate the Australian manufacturing sector exhibits better rates of individual factor productivity performance while multifactor productivity is estimated to be higher in New Zealand manufacturing. TFP growth in New Zealand is driven by technical rather than efficiency change. In fact, the New Zealand manufacturing average rate of efficiency change is estimated to be negative over the sample period.
The Economics of Health and Health Policy: An Introduction
Authors: Dawkins Peter
Published: March 2003

This article provides an introductory overview of the Policy Forum and a discussion of research needs in the economics of health and health policy.
Economic Issues in Health Policy
Authors: Johnson David
Published: March 2003

Economic issues concerning health policy are reviewed and suggestions are made to advance debate on reform.
Economic Issues in Health Policy: Comment
Authors: Owens Helen
Published: March 2003

Four key issues arising from the Johnson paper relating to ongoing reform of Australia's health sector are discussed.
Health and Welfare Measurement
Authors: Savage Elizabeth
Published: March 2003

The strengths of the welfarist framework are a reliance on empirical analysis and an explicit social evaluation framework. The focus of economists should be on applying developments in welfare measurement to the health sector.
Evaluation of the Supplier‐Induced Demand for Medical Care Model
Authors: Freebairn John
Published: March 2003

It is argued that the magnitude of effect of more doctors on medical care demand, and in particular estimates in the Richardson article, is biased upwards.
Cost Benefit Analysis in Theory and Practice
Authors: Kingston Geoffrey
Published: March 2003

Cost benefit analysis evaluates investment proposals from within the public sector. This article explains the relevant theory and provides a real world example.
Would a Decrease in Fertility Be a Threat to Living Standards in Australia?
Authors: Ross S. Ross S. , McDonald Ian M.
Published: March 2003

Falling rates of fertility in many countries have led to concerns that low fertility is a threat to future living standards. In this article we report simulations of living standards for Australia that take into account the effect of demographic change. These simulations show that reduced fertility would actually increase living standards, albeit by a small amount. We also present projections of government social outlays. These projections suggest that reductions in fertility will have an insignificant or tiny tax‐disincentive effect on GDP, thereby reinforcing our conclusion that reductions in fertility are not a threat to future living standards.
The Enlargement Challenge: Can Monetary Union Be Made to Work in an EU of 25 Members?
Authors: Eichengreen Barry
Published: March 2003

This article considers the evolution of Europe’s monetary union over the next five to ten years, concentrating on the most important likely change, namely the increased number and heterogeneity of participating states.
Assessing the Impact of Changes in Petroleum Prices on Inflation and Household Expenditures in Australia
Authors: Valadkhani Abbas , Mitchell William F.
Published: March 2003

This article analyses the expected impact of a twofold rise in petrol prices on sectoral prices and household expenditures in Australia using 1996–97 and 1977–78 input‐output tables.
The Influence of Diversification and Market Structure on the R&D Intensity of Large Australian Firms
Authors: Rogers Mark
Published: March 2003

This article empirically investigates the determinants of R&D intensity for large Australian firms (1994–1997). The results indicate that more focused firms have higher R&D intensities and that lower levels of industry competition are associated with lower R&D intensities.
Childcare Policy to Promote Child Wellbeing
Authors: Wise Sarah , Ungerer Judy , Sanson Ann
Published: March 2003

This article reviews current evidence on the impact of childcare on child development and discusses the implications for current and future childcare policy in Australia.
Total Factor Productivity and Efficiency of Australian Airports
Authors: Abbott Malcolm , Wu Su
Published: March 2003

By using a Malmquist total factor productivity index and data envelopment analysis it is possible to investigate the efficiency and productivity of Australian airports during the 1990s. The results from this analysis indicate that these airports recorded strong growth in technological change and total factor productivity, but did not fare all that well in terms of growth in technical and scale efficiency during the 1990s. At the international level it appears that Australia’s largest airports fare reasonably well in comparison to airports overseas, although they still possess the potential to realise further gains.
The Effects of Inflation and the Business Cycle on Revisions of Macroeconomic Data
Authors: Bajada Christopher
Published: March 2003

Although national accounts data provide the most comprehensive overview of economic activity, preliminary estimates are subject to much revision before they are regarded as reliable indicators. Oddly enough, the market acts on the preliminary estimates as though they were final and complete. Even though there exists a considerable international literature on the statistical properties of these revisions, little attention has been devoted to the effects of inflation and the business cycle on the size and direction of these early revisions. The aim of this article is to provide the first known examination of these effects. The findings in this article suggest that preliminary estimates are more reliable in periods of low inflationary economic growth.
Issues in Commonwealth–State Funding
Authors: Garnaut Ross , FitzGerald Vince
Published: March 2003

This article discusses equity, efficiency, and simplicity and transparency issues posed by Australia’s system of Commonwealth grants to the States, a system which applies a very strong form of ‘horizontal fiscal equalisation’.
Comments on ‘Issues in Commonwealth–State Funding’ by Ross Garnaut and Vince FitzGerald
Authors: Bannon J. C.
Published: March 2003

Horizontal fiscal equalisation is fundamental to the Federal system which is the only efficient means of governance for Australia, and effort should be put into establishing a true operational partnership between the Commonwealth and the States.
Efficiency Effects of Inter–Government Financial Transfers in Australia
Authors: Dixon Peter B. , Picton Mark R. , Rimmer Maureen T.
Published: March 2003

This article provides estimates of efficiency effects of changes in Commonwealth–State funding arrangements. These estimates allow for flypaper effects and interstate factor mobility, and take account of State endowment and cost differences.
Flypaper Unstuck: Comment on Dixon, Picton and Rimmer
Authors: Pincus Jonathan
Published: March 2003

Commonwealth general revenue grants to the States are substitutes for State taxes, and should be spent by the States. If preferences vary, then differences in State spending are not evidence of flypaper effects.
The Commonwealth Grants Commission and Horizontal Fiscal Equalisation
Authors: Morris Alan
Published: March 2003

The role and approach of the Commonwealth Grants Commission are outlined and put into perspective for the review of Federal financial relations being undertaken by Ross Garnaut and Vince FitzGerald.
The Distributional Impact of Selected Commonwealth Outlays and Taxes and Alternative Commonwealth Grant Allocation Mechanisms
Authors: Harding Ann , Warren Neil , Beer Gillian , Phillips Ben , Osei Kwabena
Published: March 2003

This article examines the redistributive impact of Commonwealth outlays and taxes (including outlays directed through and to the States)and two possible alternative systems of distributing Commonwealth funding amongst the States.
A Cohort Analysis of the Determinants of Employment and Labour Force Participation: Indigenous and Non‐Indigenous Australians, 1981 to 1996
Authors: Gray M. C. , Hunter B. H.
Published: March 2003

A synthetic cohort analysis of the probability of employment and participating in the labour force for Indigenous and non‐Indigenous Australians is presented in this article.
Opportunities to Reform State Taxes
Authors: Freebairn John
Published: March 2003

This article criticises the design of current stamp duties, payroll tax, land taxes and special taxes on motor vehicles and gambling, and proposes reform options.
Possible Implications of the Dawson Inquiry for the ACCC
Authors: Smith Rhonda L.
Published: March 2003

The ACCC’s role is to enforce the Trade Practices Act This article critically assesses key recommendations for change contained in some of the major submissions to the Dawson Inquiry and their implications for the ACCC.
The Suffering Middle: Trends in Income Inequality in Australia, 1982 to 1993–94
Authors: Harding Ann
Published: March 2003

This article analyses labour force trends, household composition and income inequality between 1982 and 1993–94, principally using unit record tapes for the two years produced by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The results suggest that earnings and private income inequality increased during these 11 years. However, increasing progressivity in the income tax and, in particular, the government cash transfer system fully offset this growing market‐based inequality. Summary inequality measures thus suggest that the distribution of disposable (post‐tax/transfer) and equivalent disposable income was much the same in 1993–94 as in 1982. However, this apparent stability disguised real income gains at the top and bottom of the income spectrum and losses for the middle 50 per cent of Australians.
The Living Standards of the Low Income Self‐Employed
Authors: Bradbury Bruce
Published: March 2003

Poverty and inequality measurement in Australia has typically excluded the self‐employed because of concerns about a weak relationship between their measured incomes and their standard of living. At the same time, however, families containing self‐employed individuals receive substantial income support. Is this support well targeted?

This paper compares the living standards of low income self‐employed and employee families using data from the ABS 1993–94 Household Expenditure Survey. The use of expenditure data for the measurement of living standards poses particular methodological problems, for which some new solutions are proposed. The paper concludes that the average living standards of low income self‐employed families and of self‐employed families receiving additional family payments are higher than those of comparable employee families. On the other hand, a greater proportion of self‐employed families have low consumption levels.
Comment on ’Towards Full Employment’
Authors: Chapman Bruce
Published: March 2003

The Dawkins and Freebairn paper illustrates the importance of the linkages between unemployment and social security policy, but is not entirely convincing in its explanation of unemployment, the wage‐employment elasticity, and the net benefits of a negative income tax.
From Urban Aborigines to Aboriginality and the City: One Path Through the History of Australian Cultural Geography
Authors: Anderson Kay , Jacobs Jane M.
Published: March 2003

This paper charts one idiosyncratic and rather personalised path through the emergence of cultural geography in the Australian context. It takes as its example the transition from research which examines a category group identified as ‘urban Aborigines’ to more recent research of our own which looks at the theme of how Aboriginality is articulated in and through the space of the city. This transition provides a way of registering some broader changes within the sub‐disciplinary field of cultural geography. The paper also reflects on recent criticism that a cultural emphasis detracts from the political edge of geographical research. The influential work of Fay Gale suggests that this claim is somewhat misplaced in the context of the development of the sub‐discipline in Australia.
Planning for Culture in Urban Australia
Authors: Dowling Robyn
Published: March 2003

This paper offers a selective overview and assessment of cultural planning in urban Australia from the perspective of a cultural geographer. It is argued that in theory cultural planning adopts a fluid and broad definition of culture similar to that used by contemporary cultural geographers. In practice, however, a narrow, material definition of culture is found in cultural plans, and the relations between cultural practices and place are construed unidimensionally.
Memory Work, Geography and Environmental Studies: Some Suggestions for Teaching and Research
Authors: Stratford Elaine
Published: March 2003

In geography and environmental studies, the subjective and objective are often pitted one against the other, and we are often required to divorce the personal and anecdotal from our formal production of knowledge. I question the sense of this practice. First, I examine a method of self‐exploration, known as memory work. I then describe how this method can be used in teaching and research to help us explore how we make and give meaning to place. Beyond these concerns, I also discuss some of the links between memory work and the conception of subjectivity and place in geography and environmental studies. Finally, I comment on how both memory and the language in which we couch our experiences are central concerns for geographers and environmental scholars wishing to effect social change.
A Speculative Model of Population Influences on Australian Ecology, Economy and Society
Authors: West Bryan A.
Published: March 2003

A lack of empirical data and sufficient conceptual frameworks precluded the 1994 national population inquiry from proposing demographic targets for the future ‘carrying capacity’ of Australia. A speculative model is proposed here of population impacts in the ecological, economic, social and relational domains. The model is ‘run’ under scenarios of growing and stable population so that key interactions can be explored and thereby advance debate about broader population policy in Australia.
Recently Observed Polarising Tendencies and Australian Cities
Authors: Badcock Blair
Published: March 2003

Recent research and writing about social and spatial polarisation in Australian cities is reviewed in a five‐part study. The first part outlines the international context in which Australian urban restructuring and polarisation is occurring. The second considers the consequences of structural adjustment in Australia in terms of changes to the distribution of national income and social costs. There is an apparent incongruity of sharper spatial disparities developing during a decade (1982—94) when the living standards of the poor were maintained at 1982 levels by the social security system under federal Labor governments.Part three surveys several recent that explicitly set out to measure shifts in urban spatial inequality, and thereby help to clarify aspects of the debate about social and spatial polarisation under Australian conditions. Part four sets out to show how both the construction of this debate, and the response of governments to urban restructuring in Australia, are implicitly grounded in three competing theoretical frameworks: ‘post‐marxist’ political economy; neoliberalism; discourses of identity and difference. Finally, practical and ethical issues are raised that stem from the triumph of neoliberal ideology over alternative visions of the ‘companionable state’.
Fiscal Federalism and Social Well–Being in Australia
Authors: Walmsley D.J. , Weinand H.C.
Published: March 2003

Australia’s federal system is characterised by both vertical and horizontal financial imbalance. This is overcome by Commonwealth‐state transfer payments. The nature of such transfers has changed over time as attempts have been made to redefine fiscal federalism. Currently, the budgetary position of the states, notions of co‐operative federalism, and pleas for micro‐economic reform are altering the nature of government activity as more and more is left to market forces. Patterns of social well‐being are changing and increased inter‐regional differences are evident. The current system of transfer payments can cope with this but detailed monitoring of social well‐being is needed as is debate over the meaning of equity in the Australian federal system.
The Environmental Status of Hawkesbury River Sediments
Authors: Birch Gavin , Shotter Nicole , Steetsel Pieter
Published: March 2003

The Hawkesbury River of New South Wales, Australia is under increasing environmental stress. Pre‐anthropogenic and current levels of heavy metal concentrations have been established for bed sediments between Windsor and Broken Bay. Sediment heavy metal concentrations in the main channel of the Hawkesbury River are close to background, but are substantially elevated in the headwaters of Berowra Creek, Cowan Creek and in southeast Pittwater. The Berowra Waters area and the upper catchment contribute both heavy metals and organochlorines/pesticides to the Berowra estuary. High contaminant levels above and below the Hornsby sewage treatment plant, and above and below the Calna Creek sewage treatment plant, make an assessment of the contribution by these plants difficult. Analyses of oyster tissue from the middle and lower reaches of the estuary indicate that heavy metal contaminants are entering the food chain.