Stochastic system dynamics modelling for climate change water scarcity assessment of a reservoir in the Italian Alps
Authors: Terzi Stefano , Sušnik Janez , Schneiderbauer Stefan , Torresan Silvia , Critto Andrea 
Published: November 2021

Abstract. Water management in mountain regions is facing multiple pressures due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. This is particularly relevant
for mountain areas where water abundance in the past allowed for many anthropogenic activities, exposing them to future water scarcity. Here
stochastic system dynamics modelling (SDM) was implemented to explore water scarcity conditions affecting the stored water and turbined outflows in
the Santa Giustina (S. Giustina) reservoir (Autonomous Province of Trento, Italy). The analysis relies on a model chain integrating outputs from climate change simulations
into a hydrological model, the output of which was used to test and select statistical models in an SDM for replicating turbined water and stored volume
within the S. Giustina dam reservoir. The study aims at simulating future conditions of the S. Giustina reservoir in terms of outflow and
volume as well as implementing a set of metrics to analyse volume extreme conditions. Average results on 30-year slices of simulations show that even under the short-term RCP4.5 scenario (2021–2050) future reductions for stored
volume and turbined outflow are expected to be severe compared to the 14-year baseline (1999–2004 and 2009–2016; −24.9 % of turbined
outflow and −19.9 % of stored volume). Similar reductions are expected also for the long-term RCP8.5 scenario (2041–2070; −26.2 % of
turbined outflow and −20.8 % of stored volume), mainly driven by the projected precipitations having a similar but lower trend especially in
the last part of the 2041–2070 period. At a monthly level, stored volume and turbined outflow are expected to increase for December to March (outflow
only), January to April (volume only) depending on scenarios and up to +32.5 % of stored volume in March for RCP8.5 for 2021–2050. Reductions are
persistently occurring for the rest of the year from April to November for turbined outflows (down to −56.3 % in August) and from May to
December for stored volume (down to −44.1 % in June). Metrics of frequency, duration and severity of future stored volume values suggest a
general increase in terms of low volume below the 10th and 20th percentiles and a decrease of high-volume conditions above the 80th and 90th
percentiles. These results point at higher percentage increases in frequency and severity for values below the 10th percentile, while volume
values below the 20th percentile are expected to last longer. Above the 90th percentile, values are expected to be less frequent than baseline
conditions, while showing smaller severity reductions compared to values above the 80th percentile. These results call for the adoption of
adaptation strategies focusing on water demand reductions. Months of expected increases in water availability should be considered periods for
water accumulation while preparing for potential persistent reductions of stored water and turbined outflows. This study provides results and
methodological insights that can be used for future SDM upscaling to integrate different strategic mountain socio-economic sectors (e.g.
hydropower, agriculture and tourism) and prepare for potential multi-risk conditions.