Prevention of technological emergency situations: information technology to develop criteria for anthropogenic risks estimation
Authors: Bobrov A. F. 
Published: June 2019

Relevance. An analysis of the saturation of potentially dangerous objects in the technogenic sphere shows constant increase in the number and severity of the consequences of manmade disasters. The possibilities of countering threats in the technogenic sphere were limited, mainly due to the human factor. Therefore, the assessment and management of anthropogenic risks is one of the main measures to prevent manmade emergencies. In enterprises with potentially hazardous technologies, this problem is solved mainly by improving the safety culture at work. The lack of scientific research on the development of criteria for assessing anthropogenic risks makes it difficult to solve important practical tasks for ranking hazardous industries according to their anthropogenic hazard, the distribution of forces and facilities of the Emercom, taking into account the most likely place of occurrence of manmade disaster, improving medical and physiological support of personnel of hazardous facilities and industries.Intention. Development of information technology for the quantitative assessment of anthropogenic risks for personnel at hazardous facilities and industries.Methodology. The object of the study was the literature data on existing approaches to risk assessment in applied scientific research. The subject of the research is information technology for developing criteria for assessing anthropogenic risks.

Results and discussion. Based on the analysis of literature data, the definition of the concept “anthropogenic risk” and the conceptual model of its quantitative assessment are given. An information technology for human risk assessment has been developed, which includes the following steps: 1) selection of the basic components of anthropogenic risk 2) determination of the values of the basic components; 3) expert assessment of the likelihood of risk realization with the established value of the basic components; 4) assessment using the risk matrix of the level of anthropogenic risk of the basic components; 5) an assessment of the social acceptability of anthropogenic risk for the basic components; 6) calculation of the weighted average anthropogenic risk; 7) the decision on the level of human risk. The methods of implementing information technology are described. An example of using the developed information technology to assess the anthropogenic risk of nuclear power plant personnel is given. Professional competence, professional success and professional health of an employee were used as a component of anthropogenic risk.Conclusion. Anthropogenic risk is a quantitative characteristic of the threat to the security of an enterprise from an employee’s professional activities due to the incompatibility of his medical and psychophysiological characteristics with the requirements of professional activity and the anthropogenic vulnerability of equipment and technological processes. Reducing anthropogenic risks is a prerequisite for improving the safety of enterprises with potentially dangerous technologies. The proposed information technology, assessment criteria and classification of levels of human risk can be used in developing a risk management system in order to minimize them.