bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Sources of Change in the Process of Population Redistribution in the United States, 1955–1980
Authors: Odland J
Published: October 2006

The location of population in the United States is being altered by processes of population redistribution which are themselves subject to change. A framework for the investigation of changes in a continuing process of population redistribution is introduced in this paper, and is used to test hypotheses about the sources of change in the process of the redistribution over the states of the USA. Changes in migration behavior are the major source of change in redistribution patterns, and incremental logit models are used to test the hypothesis that changes in migration behavior are responsive to changes in the localization of employment and changes in the demography of the population. Models of changes in migration behavior are used to construct a series of models of the relocation of population, which are investigated by means of information statistics. The results support the hypothesis that patterns of population redistribution in the 1970s differed substantially from the patterns of earlier decades. Changes in migration behavior are associated with changes in the location of employment opportunities, and the employment-related changes in out-migration and destination choice account, in turn, for much of the change in population redistribution patterns.
Interdistrict Migration in Great Britain 1980–81: A Multistream Model with a Commuting option
Authors: Gordon I
Published: October 2006

Migrational flows as recorded in the census are a heterogeneous mixture of sets of movements responding in quite different ways to area characteristics and to the friction of distance. To model such flows requires a multistream approach reflecting the principal options in the decision tree facing prospective residential or workplace movers. In this paper an existing three-stream model of migration is adopted and extended to provide a first representation of district—district flows within Great Britain in 1980–81. The extended model incorporates an option for prospective migrants to choose commuting rather than a residential move after finding a new workplace, and employs a logistic function of distance in the regional or environmental stream where migrational opportunities tend not to be independent. Results are presented for the distribution of flows between local, regional, and national streams and for the geographical pattern of pushes and pulls in each.
Research Policy and Review 24. State Science Policy and Economic Development in the United States: A Critical Perspective
Authors: Rees J , Bradley R
Published: October 2006

The economic impact of two major recessions in the United States (in the 1970s and early 1980s), together with cutbacks in federal spending during the 1980s, have made individual states more aware of their comparative advantage both in economic and in political terms. As a result, states have become more explicitly concerned with their own science policies and with how technological innovation can enhance their prospects for economic development. In this paper we explore the complex nature of science policy in the US intergovernmental system, examine the rigorous resource allocation issues involved, and look at a number of different types of technology-based economic development policies that have to date grown around the country.
The Spatial Transferability of a Decompositional Multiattribute Preference Model
Authors: van der Heijden R E C M , Timmermans H J P
Published: October 2006

An empirical test is made of the spatial transferability of a decompositional multiattribute preference model, in the context of spatial shopping behaviour. The model which is estimated for the city of Maastricht is used to predict shopping patterns in a part of the city of Eindhoven. The results indicate that the goodness of fit of the model reduces only slightly. This supports the assumption that decompositional preference models may be used to uncover utility or preference functions which are independent of spatial structure.
Modernisation and Incorporation: The Development of Singapore's Bus Services 1945–1974
Authors: Spencer A H
Published: October 2006

Although modernisation and incorporation of public transport systems in cities of developing countries have often been acknowledged, few studies have been made of this process in detail or of the possible causal factors. In Singapore, the bus services have changed from a disjointed system involving eleven companies to a unified operation, but this modernisation did not occur smoothly, nor did it follow inevitably from changes in demand, land use, or technology. Instead, there were several countervailing factors which included a lack of resources, both by operators and by government, the depredations of pirate taxis, and, for much of the period under discussion, a lack of political commitment to public transport. This last factor appeared only after the government had consolidated power, and opposition from interested parties had been disarmed. The complexity of the modernisation and incorporation process is highlighted.
Linear Modelling with Clustered Observations: An Illustrative Example of Earnings in the Engineering Industry
Authors: Davies R B , Martin A M , Penn R
Published: October 2006

Conventional least-squares regression can lead to misleading results if the data have a hierarchical structure. An appropriate linear model is presented for such data. The model has conventional regression, variance-component, and random coefficient models as special cases and may be calibrated by use of recently available software. The effectiveness of the model is demonstrated by an analysis of earnings in the engineering industry. Particular attention is given to the problems of interpreting the parameter estimates and residuals.
Labor Migration to Western Europe: A Commentary on O'Loughlin 1986
Authors: Waldorf B S , Esparza A
Published: October 2006

In this commentary we challenge O'Loughlin's article published in Environment and Planning A, in which he concludes that economic factors only marginally influence migration from the European periphery to Western Europe. First, we consider several methodological inconsistencies that bring O'Loughlin's study into question. Second, a model is developed, derived from disequilibrium theory, that, in contrast to O'Loughlin's findings, demonstrates the importance of economic factors for international migration in Europe in the postwar period.
Restructuring in the Manchester Clothing Industry: Technical Change and Interrelationships between Manufacturers and Retailers
Authors: Gibbs D C
Published: October 2006

In this paper changes in the relationship between the clothing manufacturing sector and its major customer, the retail sector, are examined. Major retailers, in their search for growth, have turned to market segmentation, increased design, and better-quality garments rather than to a strategy based on cost. This has benefitted manufacturers because of the need for close contact with British suppliers. Both manufacturers and retailers have introduced new technology to cope with the associated demands for improved flexibility, turnaround times, and design. The high cost of automation, however, lays the foundation for increasing concentration and capital intensity within the clothing industry. Despite the apparent opportunities created for the British clothing industry by these developments, it is debateable whether manufacturers have taken, or will take, full advantage. In several garment areas there is evidence that the benefits have been going to manufacturers in other member countries of the European Economic Community, who are increasingly being considered as domestic suppliers by British retailers. The significance of imports from these high-cost countries and the implications for the British clothing industry are also considered.
Regional Allocation of Public Funds: An Evaluation Index
Authors: Bosch-Domènech A , Escribano C
Published: October 2006

When different levels of government coexist in the same country, it is often imperative to implement an ‘objective’ system for transferring funds automatically among them. With the method presented in this paper one may address the question of how the relative need of public services, and therefore the allocation of funds, may be estimated for different communities. It is based on the idea of comparing the access to the public services in every community, through the use of a statistical treatment in which a set of indicators are aggregated into an indicator of need, which is used to allocate funds in order to reach ‘equal access’. The method is then applied to the case of Spain.
Dynamic Spatial Interaction Models: New Directions
Authors: Nijkamp P , Reggiani A
Published: October 2006

Spatial interaction models have received a great deal of attention in the past decade. In recent years, various approaches have also been developed to take into account dynamic aspects of spatial interaction models, by means of, for instance, optimal control theory, bifurcation theory, or catastrophe theory. The present paper deals with new directions in dynamic spatial interaction research. The focus is on a general dynamic interaction model analyzed in the framework of optimal control theory. The objective function used is a bicriterion utility model, to be maximized subject to a set of differential equations which bear some resemblance to those used by Wilson in a shopping-centre context. The link between the model presented and a catastrophe type of model is investigated. It is demonstrated that catastrophe behaviour may emerge as a particular case of this optimal control model. Finally, it is shown how external influences (for example, stochastic impacts of the Brownian motion type) affect the optimal trajectory.
Cross-Hauling and Nonsurvey Input—Output Models: Some Lessons from Small-Area Timber Economies
Authors: Robison M H , Miller J R
Published: October 2006

Nonsurvey input—output models, especially those constructed by means of pool and quotient techniques, are suspect when applied to the case of cross-hauling. This is well known. But the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Forest Service, through its IMPLAN model, and the US Department of Commerce (USDC), through its RIMSII model, encourage the application of pool and quotient nonsurvey models in cases where cross-hauling is likely to occur. In a study of the timber economy of the West-central Idaho Highlands we show the error caused by ignoring cross-hauling in estimates of logger—sawmill trade. We argue that pool and quotient techniques, used in nonsurvey models such as IMPLAN and RIMSII, should not be applied to a single county situation, or to any aggregation of counties that is not, in some sense, a functional economic area. This applies in many cases to full state models. We close by noting that in many applications of pool and quotient nonsurvey input—output methods, technique may be substituting for thought.
Demographics in Demographic—Economic Models: A Note on the Basic Activity—Commodity Framework
Authors: Hynes M , Jackson R W
Published: October 2006

The significant contributions of demographic—economic modelling to the area of impact assessment are recognised, but it is argued that much greater attention must be focused on the demographic components of these models. In particular, distinctions between household types must be treated more adequately, and mechanisms for changes in household type must be articulated and refined. The inadequacy of the current state of demographic—economic models in this regard is demonstrated by a reconsideration of the early basic formulation of Madden and Batey, upon which much of the subsequent literature draws. The simple failure of this model to allocate new jobs to unemployed nonheads of households illustrates the need for increased focus on the demographic aspect of demo—economic models.
Research Policy and Review 26: Where Does the United States Stand in the Global Resource Scarcity Debate?
Authors: MacKellar F L , Vining D R
Published: October 2006

US policy on world resources and population underwent a drastic shift between the 1970s and 1980s. Underlying this shift were deep and persistent divisions among social scientists and policy scientists who are students of the global resource scarcity hypothesis. This article consists of a brief review of the history of the debate between those who believe that resources are becoming increasingly scarce and those who do not. Major focuses include the ambiguities of scarcity measures, and economic literature such as The Limits to Growth, Global 2000, the critique of Julian Simon, and The Resourceful Earth.
Industrial Restructuring, Labour, and Locality: The Case of the British Pottery Industry
Authors: Imrie R F
Published: October 2006

In this paper a case study of industrial restructuring in the pottery industry is presented as an illustration of wider changes in industrial organisation in the early 1980s. The background to crisis and restructuring in the pottery industry is considered, and some of the contradictory elements in the new model of production that now characterises the industry are outlined. In conclusion, the geographical effects of economic change in the industry are considered, particularly those on labour and the locality of Stoke on Trent, where the industry is located.
Consumer Preferences for Rural Residences: A Conjoint Analysis in Ontario, Canada
Authors: Joseph A E , Smit B , McIlravey G P
Published: October 2006

Conjoint measurement is introduced as an appropriate method for characterising the nature of consumer preferences for various types of rural residence. After a review of the major conceptual and technical issues in conjoint analysis, a study involving twenty-two potential homebuyers in southern Ontario is described. The results indicate that potential buyers are seeking privacy (medium-size or large lots in isolated locations) above all other things, which translates into a behavioural push for sprawling, low-density development. Further examination of the utilities attached to the various attributes of potential residences suggests a limited but real opportunity for the use of controls on lot and house size and on municipal service provision to increase the attractivenss of high-density, village locations to consumers.
A Spatial Causal Model of Economic Interdependency among Neighboring Communities
Authors: Getis A
Published: October 2006

A model is presented with which one may identify appropriate spatial lags in a recursive system. The example system represents economic well-being of municipalities in an urban region; the Boston region is used for the case study. The additional explained variation due to the effect of nearby municipalities on the municipality in question may be accounted for with this model. Methods for handling the problems of data additivity and overlap of spatial units are given. The criterion for spatial lag identification is the absolute sum of the path coefficients. Results indicate that poverty levels in a given municipality are affected maximally by an economic variable representing employment and unemployment in neighboring muncipalities up to a distance of eight miles from the center of the community.
A Field Theory of Spatial Interaction
Authors: Slater P B
Published: October 2006

Spatial interaction—the flows of people, goods, or other entities from place to place—can be conceptualized as occurring in a scalar field of influences, both of external origin (that is, travel costs) and of internal origin (that is, temporal correlations between flows). Conventional spatial interaction models, however, incorporate into their cost functions only the exogenous effects. This omission is addressed. The presence of significant positive and negative correlations between flows would be indicative of a ‘frustrated’ system of interactions, one in which all tendencies cannot be simultaneously respected. Cost (energy) minimization (a generalization of the classical problem of transportation) that can be pursued by means of simulated annealing, reduces these stresses. Enhancement of the tensions, on the other hand, leads to an equivalence with the quadratic transportation problem of Dorigo and Tobler, and suggests that the eigenvalues of the matrix of correlations between flows, are estimates of travel cost for a set of ‘eigenflows’.
Research Policy and Review 27. New Directions for Understanding Transportation and Land Use
Authors: Giuliano G
Published: October 2006

Theories of relationships between land use and transportation, and the empirical research conducted to test these relationships are reviewed. Recent empirical research seldom supports theoretical expectations. These results are explained by the changes in urban structure that have occurred over the past three decades. The paper concludes with some suggestions for revising the theories to represent conditions in contemporary urban areas better.
What Happened to the CBD-Distance Gradient?: Land Values in a Policentric City
Authors: Heikkila E , Gordon P , Kim J I , Peiser R B , Richardson H W , Dale-Johnson D
Published: October 2006

Hedonic regression methods are used to assess the impact of dwelling and structure characteristics, neighborhood effects, and multiple locations on a sample of almost 11000 residential property sales in Los Angeles County in 1980. Correction for the dwelling characteristic permits the analysis to be interpreted in terms of land values rather than property values per unit area. The selected equation explains more than 93% of the variation in the dependent variable (house price per unit of lot area). All the independent variables (five property or transaction characteristics, four neighborhood effects, and ten locational nodes) are statistically significant, with one major exception: distance from the CBD, which has a very low /-value and an unexpected sign. This result should be considered in the context of many superficial references, based largely on visual symbols such as new office buildings, to a revival of downtown Los Angeles. The authors interpret the finding that eight subcenters have a statistically significant influence on metropolitan residential land values in Los Angeles as yet another indication of the demise of the monocentric model and the need to discuss VS metropolitan areas in policentric terms.
Unemployment and Business Formation Rates: Reconciling Time-Series and Cross-Section Evidence
Authors: Hamilton R T
Published: October 2006

Time-series analyses generally show rates of business formation increasing with unemployment. In cross-section studies the areas with the highest rates of formation are generally those with the lowest levels of unemployment. In a study using both types of data, the negative cross-section relationship is confirmed but it is suggested that the time-series may be nonlinear, becoming negative at a critical unemployment level around 20%. The paper concludes with a reconciliation of these findings.
An Empirical Study of Price Correlations: 2. The Decrease in Price Correlation with Distance and the Concept of Correlation Length
Authors: Roehner B
Published: October 2006

The dependence of the correlation between wheat price fluctuations on different markets with respect to the distance between those markets is investigated. It is shown that the decrease in the correlation is exponential and is governed by a characteristic distance which is called the correlation length for wheat prices. This is a measure of the level of market integration in a given area. The magnitude of the correlation length is compared for different cereals: wheat, rye, and oats, and the evolution of the correlation length during the 19th century is studied. In particular, it is observed that subsistence crises are characterised by a collective behaviour of the economy which results in a sudden peak in the correlation length. Last, the part played by the spatial correlation between precipitations is investigated. It appears to be rather small; consequently, the price-correlation length is primarily the result of economic factors.
The Evolution of a National Urban Development Strategy in Hungary
Authors: Zoványi G
Published: October 2006

National urban-development strategies represent government attempts to influence one or more of the following features of urban development in a national context: (1) a country's rate of urbanization; (2) the size of particular urban places within a country; and (3) the city-size distribution of a country's national urban hierarchy. Hungary's post-Second-World-War experience with a national urban development strategy is presented via a description of government efforts to affect each of the aforementioned features of urban development.
Mixed-Data Multicriteria Evaluation for Regional Planning: A Systematic Approach to the Decisionmaking Process
Authors: Jankowski P
Published: October 2006

In this paper multicriteria evaluation is dealt with as a tool for the public decisionmaking process. In the first part of the paper the systematic approach to multicriteria evaluation is presented, and the consecutive steps of the evaluation process are outlined. This is followed in the second part by the application of mixed-data multicriteria evaluation to the empirical problem of resource allocation in Poland. Mixed-data multicriteria evaluation is presented as a decision-support tool and as a means of facilitating a bargaining process between the involved parties.
Nonmonocentric Urban Configurations in a Two-Dimensional Space
Authors: Ogawa H , Fujita M
Published: October 2006

A one-dimensional model of nonmonocentric urban land use is extended into a two-dimensional space. Under the assumption of circular symmetry, it is shown that the equilibrium urban configurations in the two-dimensional space are essentially the same as those in the one-dimensional space except for the conditions on the parameters.
On Objectivity in Economic Research: A Response to Willis
Authors: Jensen R C , West G R
Published: October 2006

For some years (since 1976) a research team at the University of Queensland have progressively developed and applied a technique termed the Generation of Regional Input — Output Tables (GRIT), in the compilation of regional input — output tables. GRIT was designed as a hybrid technique, that is, one containing elements of nonsurvey or mechanical methods, but also requiring the insertion into the regional table of sufficient ‘superior’ or ‘survey’ data to ensure an acceptable level of accuracy. Willis has recently published a paper purporting to test the accuracy of the GRIT technique. This paper is a response to Willis's claims, and it is asserted that Willis did not observe the normally accepted guidelines for critical evaluation, by ‘testing’ GRIT purely as a nonsurvey technique, rather than as a hybrid model requiring substantial amounts of region-specific data.
Research Policy and Review 28: Fragmenting Markets and the Dynamic Restructuring of Production: Issues for Spatial Policy
Authors: Lloyd P E
Published: October 2006

In the aftermath of the recession of 1981 – 82, change has been sweeping through corporate enterprise in Great Britain. Long-established companies have been taken to the brink of failure, and have drawn back to reorganize, recapitalize, and restructure. In this paper the broader underpinnings of this process of sharp reconfiguration are speculated upon, and it is hinted that it represents a fundamental ‘phase-shift’ in the process of economic development—by producing new forms and structures, new opportunities and threats, and new strengths and weaknesses. With regard to policy matters, it is suggested that the emergent new order offers a particular challenge in rendering past performance a poor guide to future outcomes, and demands a reconceptualization of the processes by which these policies seek to intervene to achieve regional or local advantage.
An Allometric Analysis of the US Urban System: 1960 – 80
Authors: Lee Y
Published: October 2006

In this paper the relationship between urban population size and land area of urbanized areas of the USA in 1960, 1970, and 1980 is analyzed by means of the allometric growth law. The US urban system of each of the above time periods is disaggregated into seven population-size classes and nine geographic regions. A total of fifty-one equations are estimated. Although the statistical results of the allometric equations classified according to population are not satisfactory, the equations classified according to region are superior. Among the major findings for the US urban system are: the existence of the dynamic similarity model, the existence of negative allometry, the lack of support for the hypothesized relationship between the allometric coefficients and the changes in the population density profiles, and that continental USA is divided into regions of ‘negative allometric’ or ‘toward isometric’ and ‘stable’ or ‘unstable’ growth patterns.
Research Policy and Review 29: The Chorley Committee and “Handling Geographic Information”
Authors: Rhind D W , Mounsey H M
Published: October 2006

In 1985, the UK government set up a Committee of Enquiry into the Handling of Geographic Information by computer. This was chaired by Lord Chorley and reported in early 1987. It concerned itself with all information which is described in relation to space and which could hence be used either singly or in combination. The tasks undertaken by the Committee are described, as are its composition and method of operation, the major ‘discoveries’ it made, and the recommendations put forward to government. A total of sixty-four recommendations were made covering digital (especially Ordnance Survey) topographic mapping, the availability of geographically disaggregated data, the problems and benefits of linking different data sets together, the need to enhance user awareness of geographical information systems and information technology, education and training, research and development, and the appropriate role for government and machinery for coordination. Finally, the government's published response to the Chorley Report is examined, particularly with regard to the proposed Centre for Geographic Information. The subsequent moves towards a consortium to bring this about are described.
Geodemographics in Practice: Developments in Britain and Europe
Authors: Beaumont J R , Inglis K
Published: October 2006

Information can be a source of competitive advantage. As marketing has evolved from ‘mass marketing’ to ‘niche marketing’, spatially disaggregated market analyses have become essential for companies to be able to plan both tactically and strategically with regard to customers’ needs and competitive threats. The distinctive industry of companies providing geodemographic or market analyses developed in the mid-1970s and is now worth over £10 million per annum in Britain. Developments in Britain are summarised, and activities and potential opportunities across Europe are noted.
Forecasting the Local Economy, Using Time-Series and Shift—Share Techniques
Authors: Kurre J A , Weller B R
Published: October 2006

Although shift – share is an inexpensive and easy means of making regional forecasts, its accuracy depends on the method used in forecasting the competitive component of the region. As theory is unclear as to the sign, let alone the magnitude, of the competitive component of the next period, it would be appropriate to use time-series techniques to forecast it. Unfortunately the typical method of application of shift–share results in too few data points for the application of time-series analysis. In this paper an alternative method of calculating the competitive component that resolves that problem is presented. In an empirical test of the technique, time-series methods are used to forecast the competitive series for a metropolitan region. The results are found to compare favorably with the forecasts of other techniques.
An Approach to Environmental Impact Assessment by Using Cross Impact Simulation
Authors: Vizayakumar K , Mohapatra P K J
Published: October 2006

KSIM, a qualitative approach to cross impact simulation, is used to simulate a complex environmental system. Several policies concerned with issues such as health care, pollution control, pollution taxes, and the restricted use of technology, are tested with a real-world macromodel by generating the future scenarios. In this paper, the utility of KSIM for environmental impact analysis is exhibited.
Aspects of the Lognormal Function in the Analysis of Regional Population Distribution
Authors: Parr J B , O'Neill G J
Published: October 2006

The spatial structure of population within a metropolitan-area-based region is approached via the population density function, in much the same way as has been undertaken for a city or metropolitan area. A particularly appropriate form of the density function is the lognormal, and the broad features of this function are outlined. The concern in the balance of the paper is with certain properties of the lognormal form. These properties are descriptive in nature, but may also be of a predictive character, in the sense that the predicted property can be contrasted with its observed counterpart. Consideration is given first to properties based on density. The population form of the lognormal function is then derived, and properties based on population are examined. Attention is also given to relationships among density-based and population-based properties. An example of the approach and how it may contribute to the analysis of spatial structure, particularly over time, is illustrated with respect to a major metropolitan-area-based region. Last, possible applications of this type of analysis are discussed.
Public Participation in the Danish Planning System—A Cybernetics Approach
Authors: Katz Y
Published: October 2006

Between 1969 and 1975 an extensive reform of planning processes was implemented in Denmark. The reform was aimed at several objectives: decentralization, increase of productivity and rationality, institutionalization of the planning processes, and improvement of life quality. This paper examines the patterns of the citizens' participation by means of a communication model, based on the cybernetics approach.

Our examination will show that the reform has indeed institutionalized the formal participation channels, through which the planning can be influenced. However, as in the case of the West Zealand county, no actual influence of this participation process was recognized in the planning processes. The participation occurred mainly in the later stages of implementation and was a rather disfunctional factor, restraining and delaying the execution of the plan.
A Variety Seeking Model of Spatial Choice-Behaviour
Authors: Borgers A W J , van der Heijden R E C M , Timmermans H J P
Published: October 2006

Conventional choice-models are based on the assumption of a stable utility function. Previous studies have indicated that this assumption may be less valid for certain types of choice-behaviour. In this paper the idea of variety seeking is put forward as a possible explanation for varied choice-behaviour. A model is developed and tested in the context of recreational choice-behaviour.
Endogenizing the Rise and Fall of Urban Subcenters via Discrete Programming Models
Authors: Gordon P , Moore J E
Published: October 2006

Models that represent the polycentric and dispersed nature of modern cities should be able to account for the rise and fall of subcenters. Based on a review of the programming models applied to urban analysis, five properties are suggested that an adequate model should include. It should: 1 confront the simultaneity between markets for land and transportation services; 2 accommodate the reality of cities as places where externalities and common properties abound; 3 emulate the intertemporal albeit bounded nature of planning and decisionmaking; 4 fully exploit principles of economic theory; and, 5 offer computability. We develop a discrete programming model with these five properties, comparing its capabilities with those of previous approaches.
Developments in Economic Valuation of Environmental Resources in Centrally Planned Economies
Authors: Mol A P J , Opschoor J B
Published: October 2006

Environmental policy in centrally planned economies is nowadays based mainly on administrative measures, such as licences and standards. The realisation of environmental targets by physical planning, management, and regulation alone, however, is falling short of expectations. For that reason, economists in centrally planned economies have recently put forward various proposals for using economic mechanisms in environmental policy based on the economic valuation of natural resources and environmental degradation. Within these economic valuations three leading methodologies can be distinguished, based on Marx's labour theory of value, the notion of differential rent, and the notion of reproduction costs, respectively. Up till now, these proposals are only considered for use in perspective planning and they therefore bypass day-to-day economic practice. Besides that, the emphasis of most proposals is mainly on optimising economic behaviour rather than maintaining a certain level of environmental quality. If compared with the Western World's neoclassical methods of valuation some formal analogies in both approaches can be observed.
The Evolution and Implications of Mineral Planning Policy in the National Parks of England and Wales
Authors: Brotherton D I
Published: October 2006

Quarrying upsets national park interests, perhaps more than any other activity. As a consequence, considerable effort has been expended over the past forty years to devise appropriate mineral planning policies for the parks. Three approaches are identified and are indicated by the names of the ministers that propounded them: the Silkin test (1949); the Sandford approach (1976); and the Waldegrave formulation (1987). Particular importance is attached to clarifying the premise on which each of the three policies is based, and to exploring the implications of the policies, both for the national parks and for the rest of the countryside. The Silkin test and Sandford approach are shown to have markedly different premises and consequences, whereas the recently propounded Waldegrave formulation appears to be intermediate to the other two. But the consequences of Waldegrave are shown to be inconsistent with its intermediate premise. For all the dressing up, Waldegrave produces outcomes no different from Silkin's, and current mineral policy is effectively back where it started. The desirability of this is considered.
Energy and Environment: Deriving a Research Agenda
Authors: Sheldrick B , Scott A
Published: October 2006

Energy and the environment are inextricably linked: all decisions concerning energy consumption and production have implications for the environment, and environmental policy can impinge on the exploitation of energy resources. In this paper a general agenda is identified for this field of research, based on the deliberations of the ESRC Working Group on Energy and the Environment between 1984 and 1987. The connection between energy and environment issues and the different philosophical approaches to reconciling energy — environment conflicts are discussed, and criteria for identifying research priorities are suggested. An indicative research framework is constructed, and four main research themes are identified which must be tackled if real progress is to be made in this area with the limited research resources likely to be available.
On the Relationship between the Supply-Driven and the Demand-Driven Input — Output Model
Authors: Dietzenbacher E
Published: October 2006

In this paper, the relationship between the assumptions in the supply-driven and the demand-driven input-output model is discussed. A necessary and sufficient condition is given for the stability of the input coefficients, the output coefficients, and both coefficients. For both models, the effects of a demand pull on the total outputs and on the primary inputs are analytically expressed. Also, the effects of a supply push on the total outputs and on the final outputs are expressed, again for both models. In general, the assumption of fixed input coefficients in the demand-driven model does not hold, but computations are still based on it. A necessary and sufficient condition is given for the correctness of the computed total outputs, both for a demand pull and a supply push. Similar results are obtained for the supply-driven input — output model.
Maximum-Entropy Representations in Convex Polytopes: Applications to Spatial Interaction
Authors: Slater P B
Published: October 2006

Of all representations of a given point situated in a convex polytope, as a convex combination of extreme points, there exists one for which the probability or weighting distribution has maximum entropy. The determination of this multiplicative or exponential distribution can be accomplished by inverting a certain bijection—developed by Rothaus and by Bregman—of convex polytopes into themselves. An iterative algorithm is available for this procedure. The doubly stochastic matrix with a given set of transversals (generalized diagonal products) can be found by means of this method. Applications are discussed of the Rothaus -Bregman map to a proof of Birkhoff's theorem and to the calculation of trajectories of points leading to stationary or equilibrium values of the generalized permanent, in particular in spatial interaction modeling.
Information Intensive Industries in Metropolitan Areas of the United States of America
Authors: Drennan M P
Published: October 2006

In this paper the metropolitan geography of information intensive industries in the United States is analyzed. Such industries are a subset of Porat's definition of information industries and correspond to what Noyelle and Stanback as well as Hepworth among others have called producer services.

Economic forces which have fueled the expansion of information intensive industries are identified and their growth is measured relative to overall real GNP growth. Examination of employment and other data for twenty-four of the largest metropolitan areas in the United States reveals substantial diversity in the degree of concentration of information intensive industries. Furthermore, there appears to be a divergent location-pattern for producer services compared with headquarters. Regression analysis supports this divergent location-pattern.
‘Homelessness’, Contagious Destruction of Housing, and Municipal Service Cuts in New York City: 2. Dynamics of a Housing Famine
Authors: Wallace R
Published: October 2006

This paper expands on an earlier analysis finding that massive loss of housing to contagious urban decay in New York City, after a delay, has materially contributed to creation of a literal famine of housing and community. As in traditional food famines, a great housing deficit, some estimates suggest a quarter million unit shortfall affecting perhaps a million people, has structured itself according to the city's social hierarchy, striking most seriously the most vulnerable of the population. These increasingly become precariously housed and then, with time, homeless as the decline of low-income housing supply collides with increasing numbers of the poor. Previous simple mathematical analysis suggested the demographics of those precariously housed strongly determines the dynamics of homelessness. A generalized treatment is given here, linking the number precariously housed in New York City to contagious urban decay and time lag effects resulting from housing units made available by an episode of out-migration by the middle class, along with the impact of expected deterioration of public health causing elevated death rates among the precariously housed and the homeless. The resulting mathematical model raises the possibility of complex, counterintuitive and self-reinforcing cyclic time dynamics, with deceptive apparently latent periods, and serious instabilities, perhaps capable of rapidly producing unexpected avalanches of homeless people. Suggestions are made for intervention and control, based on understanding the complex ‘life cycle’ of the process. These, it is found, must include prompt restoration of critical housing-related municipal services, particularly fire extinguishment.
The Location of Fire Stations in a Rural Environment: A Case Study
Authors: Richard D , Beguin H , Peeters D
Published: October 2006

In this paper an application of location-allocation modelling to an emergency service is presented. This study differs in two aspects from earlier work because it covers two neglected fields: (1) it is concerned with a rural environment whereas most case studies are about urban areas; (2) it is a comparison of the performance of several models instead of using only one. Efficiency as well as equity are taken into account. The main conclusions are about the issues of the choice of an appropriate model from 3 candidate models, the stability of the solutions with respect to variations in the number of facilities, the quasi-nested structure of some solutions, and the high cost of introducing equity.
Intensive Income in Demo-Economic input-output Models
Authors: Li Dewhurst J H
Published: October 2006

In this paper, the treatment of intensive income in extended input-output models of a ‘demo-economic’ nature is discussed. In the first section of the paper a model is presented that allows for intensive, extensive, redistributive, and exogenous income changes in response to an increase in exogenous final demand for the output of an economy. It is shown that use of Blackwell's method of estimating intensive and extensive income changes in such a model implies a particular growth path for average earnings. In the second section the possibility of intensive income changes arising from increased utilisation of labour is examined. The existence of underutilisation of labour is shown to have a marked effect on output and employment multipliers. Some comments are made on the practical implications of the analysis, illustrated by a simple model of the Queensland economy.
Human Way-Finding in an Urban Environment: A Performance Analysis of a Computational Process Model
Authors: Gopal S , Smith T R
Published: October 2006

In this paper the characteristics and performance are described of a computational process model (CPM) of human way-finding that is based on psychological models of cognition and experimental data on human way-finding. The model comprises two modules, one for representing objectively a suburban environment and the other for representing the cognitive processes involved in navigation. The CPM is employed to simulate and investigate how spatial knowledge that has been acquired and stored is retrieved and processed in order to plan a path to a given goal. The results of the experiments carried out with NAVIGATOR are compared with the results of experiments involving young adults in real environments. We analyze the performance of NAVIGATOR in terms of its ability to find the goal, the amount of time taken to reach a given goal, the differences in performance during way-finding, and the errors in navigation, as a function of several parameters. The parameters are intended to represent key psychological components of human perceptual and cognitive systems and are derived from experimental studies of human way-finding behavior. The main value of this model lies in its use as a device for investigating and understanding human spatial performance, in terms of accurate performance and errors that arise in tasks of way-finding, and the variations among individuals in terms of performance. A set of computational experiments are used to examine the differences in search strategies between ‘individuals’. The effects of various parameters on way-finding performance are analyzed. Errors in way-finding are classified and are compared with Norman's and Reason's classification of errors in human performance. The CPM appears to provide a fruitful model for investigating human way-finding behavior.
The Importance of Place of Birth in Migration and Population Redistribution Analysis
Authors: Rogers A , Belanger A
Published: October 2006

Researchers on migration during the past two decades have increasingly interpreted geographical mobility as more than a one-time event in the lives of most people. This perspective has elevated the relative importance of the previous migration ‘event histories’ of individuals as variables in explanations of observed migration patterns. The role of migration away from and toward the place of birth has in particular received considerable attention. In this paper, US Census data is used to examine further the importance of place of birth on migration streams and to trace the impacts of such ‘native dependence’ on age patterns of migration, multiregional life expectancies, and spatial population projections.
New Forms of Manufacturing and Their Spatial Implications: The UK Electronic Consumer Goods Industry
Authors: Milne S
Published: October 2006

Findings from a recent survey of the introduction of new manufacturing techniques in the UK electronic consumer goods (ECG) industry are presented. ECG firms operate in an environment characterised by intense global competition, rapidly changing consumer demand, shortened product life cycles, and the pervasive impact of new technologies. In response to these pressures firms are forced to operate in both an efficient and a highly flexible manner. The corporate responses to these pressures are outlined in an industry-wide overview, with the resultant impacts on firm performance being described in a series of case studies. In conclusion, a discussion of the possible spatial implications of the findings is presented. This includes an assessment of the ramifications at both the international and intranational or regional scales. It is shown that the application of new manufacturing techniques within this sector has led to major changes in both the spatial and the aspatial organisation of its production processes.
Neutral Migration Process and its Application to an Analysis of Canadian Migration Data
Authors: Liaw K-L
Published: October 2006

In this paper the notion of a neutral migration process (NMP) is introduced and applied to an analysis of the interprovincial migration patterns of young adults and the elderly in Canada during the 1976–81 intercensal period. The paper is motivated by one basic question: Does the redistribution potential of an observed migration process depend more on the departure process, or on the destination choice process? It turns out that the NMP can not only help answer the basic question but also yield further insights into observed migration processes.
The Establishment of a Subcenter and Urban Spatial Structure
Authors: Sasaki K
Published: October 2006

How the utility level of a resident, the profits of a firm, personal income, city size, and the area for each activity vary in the setting of a multicenter city when transport cost and population size change is examined in this paper. Also, the performances of the endogenous variables both with and without a subcenter are compared in order to evaluate the effects of the establishment of a subcenter. In order to do this, a model of a two-center city is fully developed and is simulated numerically.
Modelling the Transition from the Industrial to the Informational Revolution
Authors: Veneris Y
Published: October 2006

The transition from the industrial to the informational revolution is a major current global issue. Its complex dynamic trajectories are explored by means of a methodological modelling framework, based on cybernetics and dynamic systems, taking into account alternative value and social contexts.