Extreme Storm Surge estimates and projection through the Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution
Authors: Caruso Maria Francesca , Marani Marco 
Published: March 2021

&lt;p&gt;Storm surges caused by extreme meteorological conditions are a major natural risk in coastal areas, especially in the context of global climate change. The increase of future sea-levels caused by continuing global warming, may endanger human lives and infrastructure through inundation, erosion and salinization.&lt;br&gt;Hence, the reliable estimation of the occurrence probability of these extreme events is crucial to quantify risk and to design adequate coastal defense structures. The probability of event occurrence is typically estimated by modelling observed sea-level records using one of a few statistical approaches.&lt;br&gt;The traditional Extreme Value Theory is based on the use of the Generalized Extreme Value distribution (GEV), &amp;#160;fitted either by considering block (typically yearly) maxima, or values exceeding a high threshold (POT). This approach does not make full use of all observational information, and thereby does not minimize estimation uncertainty.&lt;br&gt;The recently proposed Metastatistical Extreme Value Distribution (MEVD), instead, makes use of most of the available observations and has been shown to outperform the classical GEV distribution in several applications, including hourly and daily rainfall, flood peak discharge and extreme hurricane intensity.&lt;br&gt;Here, we comparatively apply the MEVD and the GEV distribution to long time series of sea-level observations distributed along European coastlines (Venice (IT), Hornbaek (DK), Marseille (FR), Newlyn (UK)). A cross-validation approach, dividing available data in separate calibration and test sub-samples, is used to compare their performances in high-quantile estimation.&lt;br&gt;The MEVD approach is based on the definition of an &amp;#8220;ordinary values&amp;#8221; distribution (here a Generalized Pareto distribution), whose parameters are estimated using the Probability Weighted Moments method on non-overlapping sub-samples of fixed size (5 years). To address the problems posed by observational samples of different sizes, we explore the effect on uncertainty of different calibration sample sizes, from 5 to 30 years. In this application, we find that the GEVD-POT and MEVD approaches perform similarly, once the above parameter choices are optimized. In particular, when considering short samples (5 years) and events with a high return time, the estimation errors show no significant differences in their median value across methods and sites, all approaches producing a similar underestimation of the actual quantile. When larger calibration sample sizes are considered (10-30 yrs), the median error of MEVD estimates tends to be closer to zero than those obtained from the traditional methods.&lt;br&gt;Future projections of sea-level rise until 2100 are also analyzed, with reference to intermediate and extreme representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). The probability of future storm surges along European coastlines are then estimated assuming a changing mean sea-level and an unchanged storm regime. The projections indicate future changes in mean sea-level lead to increases in the height of storm surges for a fixed return period that are spatially heterogeneous across the coastal locations explored.&lt;/p&gt;