Changes in the age pattern of childbearing in Serbia and EU countries - comparative analysis
Authors: Magdalenic Ivana , Vojkovic Gordana 
Published: February 2016

Most European countries nowadays are characterized by a fertility level,
which by earlier theoretical considerations was not even assumed as the lower
limit for childbearing. The focus of this paper are the changes in
reproductive behavior of women during the second half of the 20th and
beginning of the 21st century as well as the changes in the age model of
childbearing which resulted from that. The comparative analysis between
Serbia and 28 EU member countries covers the period 1960-2012. The
distribution of live births according to mother's age was analyzed, as well
as the phenomena of postponing births and increasing the average age of
mothers at childbirth, changes in the structure of female population
according to the number of live births, and the decrease of higher birth
orders. Demographic potentials of fertility through age structures of the
fertile cohort were also pointed out. The similarities and differences in the
fertility patterns in the Republic of Serbia and the EU countries were
considered in order to determine the specificities of the reproductive model
of women in Serbia and the widespread phenomena of postponing births. The
fertility transition in Serbia in the second half of the 20th century had the
same trend as in the EU countries evolving in the direction of constant
lowering of the childbirth levels. Nevertheless, in relation to the sixties
of the 20th century, Serbia shifted towards the lower part of the scale at
which the EU countries are ranked according to total fertility rate. Almost
all EU member countries (except for Luxembourg, Malta, Cyprus and Portugal)
marked an increase in fertility in the 2000-2011 period, while the fertility
level in Serbia, with some oscillations, continued to decrease. The turnabout
in total fertility rate registered in most European countries is attributed
to the effect of postponed childbirths, while it is assumed that its impact
will be marked in Serbia during the next decade. Changes in the fertility age
models of the population in Serbia in the second half of the 20th century
progressed in the form of an intensive and almost continual decrease of the
level of live births in the two youngest age groups (15-19 and 20- 24), while
the other cohorts marked fluctuations of age-specific fertility rates (ASFR).
The fertility level of the 25-29 cohort, which is also the bearer of maximum
childbirths in Serbia (91.6?), is considerably lower than the level of the
same age group in France (134.2?) or Sweden (113.9?). With the present
fertility level (TFR 1.45), Serbia is closer to the populations of central
and southern Europe. Furthermore, a comparative analysis of the scope and
internal composition of the reproductive cohort of selected countries shows
that Serbia belongs to the category of countries which is characterized by a
considerable reduction of the reproductive demographic framework and
unfavorable age structure of the fertile cohort. The existing differences in
relation to the EU countries with the highest fertility confirm that fertile
period is not taken advantage of, and that there is considerable capacity for
stimulating births of women at the so-called optimal reproductive age (as the
ASFRs of these groups are considerably below the level of countries with the
highest fertility). Furthermore, the current higher fertility rate of older
women in Serbia does not compensate for the reduced reproduction in the
younger years, as the ASFR of women of the older cohorts is also lower than
in countries with higher fertility.