bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The Impact of Wave Packets Propagating across Asia on Pacific Cyclone Development
Authors: Chang Edmund K. M.
Published: July 2005

In this paper, ECMWF 40-yr reanalysis data have been examined to study the influence of upper-level wave packets propagating across Asia into the Pacific on surface cyclone development over the Pacific. Previous studies have shown that in winter, wave packets propagate across Asia over two branches—a northern branch over Siberia and a southern branch along the subtropical jet across southern Asia. Results presented here show that subsequent to the presence of wave packets on either branch, the frequency of occurrence of deep cyclones (defined as cyclones with central pressure below 960 hPa), as well as explosively deepening cyclones (those with a deepening rate of 1 Bergeron or more), are significantly enhanced. This enhancement also clearly follows the wave packet eastward as it propagates across the Pacific.

Wave packets from the two branches are found to interfere with each other, such that if wave packets of the appropriate configuration are present on both the northern and southern branch, subsequent surface cyclone development over the western Pacific is further enhanced. Examination of the evolution of the anomalies suggests that these interferences can largely be explained by linear superposition of wave packets from the two branches.

Examination of the evolution of the composite structure of wave packets that are followed by the development of a significant surface cyclone indicates that cyclones that develop as the northern packet propagates into the Pacific are phase locked with the upper-level trough and maintain a favorable westward tilt with height throughout their development, consistent with the hypothesis that cyclogenesis is triggered by the approach of the wave packet. In contrast, significant cyclones whose development are influenced by the southern packets initially develop west of the upper-level trough, and propagate eastward with a phase speed that is much faster than that of the upper-level trough, attaining a westward phase tilt with height only at the mature stage, suggesting that cyclogenesis for these cases is probably not triggered by the wave packet.
The Hurricane Intensity Issue
Authors: Krishnamurti T. N. , Pattnaik S. , Stefanova L. , Kumar T. S. V. Vijaya , Mackey B. P. , O’Shay A. J. , Pasch Richard J.
Published: July 2005

The intensity issue of hurricanes is addressed in this paper using the angular momentum budget of a hurricane in storm-relative cylindrical coordinates and a scale-interaction approach. In the angular momentum budget in storm-relative coordinates, a large outer angular momentum of the hurricane is depleted continually along inflowing trajectories. This depletion occurs via surface and planetary boundary layer friction, model diffusion, and “cloud torques”; the latter is a principal contributor to the diminution of outer angular momentum. The eventual angular momentum of the parcel near the storm center determines the storm’s final intensity. The scale-interaction approach is the familiar energetics in the wavenumber domain where the eddy and zonal kinetic energy on the hurricane scale offer some insights on its intensity. Here, however, these are cast in storm-centered local cylindrical coordinates as a point of reference. The wavenumbers include azimuthally averaged wavenumber 0, principal hurricane-scale asymmetries (wavenumbers 1 and 2, determined from datasets) and other scales. The main questions asked here relate to the role of the individual cloud scales in supplying energy to the scales of the hurricane, thus contributing to its intensity. A principal finding is that cloud scales carry most of their variance, via organized convection, directly on the scales of the hurricane. The generation of available potential energy and the transformation of eddy kinetic energy from the cloud scale are in fact directly passed on to the hurricane scale by the vertical overturning processes on the hurricane scale. Less of the kinetic energy is generated on the scales of individual clouds that are of the order of a few kilometers. The other major components of the energetics are the kinetic-to-kinetic energy exchange and available potential-to-available potential energy exchange among different scales. These occur via triad interaction and were noted to be essentially downscale transfer, that is, a cascading process. It is the balance among these processes that seems to dictate the final intensity.
A Cyclogenesis Evolving into Two Distinct Scenarios and Its Implications for Short-Term Ensemble Forecasting
Authors: Plu Matthieu , Arbogast Philippe
Published: July 2005

In a nonlinear quasigeostrophic model with uniform potential vorticity, an idealized initial state sharing some features with atmospheric low-predictability situations is built. Inspired by previous work on idealized cyclogenesis, two different cyclogenesis scenarios are obtained as a result of a small change of the initial location of one structure. This behavior is interpreted by analyzing the baroclinic interaction between upper- and lower-level anomalies. The error growth mechanism is nonlinear; it does not depend on the linear stability properties of the jet, which are the same in both evolutions.

The ability of ensemble forecasts to capture these two possible evolutions is then assessed given some realistic error bounds in the knowledge of the initial conditions. First, a reference statistical distribution of each of the evolutions is obtained by means of a large Monte Carlo ensemble. Smaller ensembles with size representative of what is available in current operational implementations are then built and compared to the Monte Carlo reference: several singular-vector-based ensembles, a small Monte Carlo ensemble, and a “coherent structure”-based ensemble. This new technique relies on a sampling of the errors on the precursors of the cyclogenesis: amplitude and position errors. In this context, the precursors are handled as coherent structures that may be amplified or moved within realistic error bounds. It is shown that the singular vector ensemble fails to reproduce the bimodal distribution of the variability if the ensemble is not initially constrained, whereas it is accessible at a relatively low cost to the new coherent structures initialization.
Improving Convective Precipitation Forecasting through Assimilation of Regional Lightning Measurements in a Mesoscale Model
Authors: Papadopoulos Anastasios , Chronis Themis G. , Anagnostou Emmanouil N.
Published: July 2005

A technique developed for assimilating regional lightning measurements into a meteorological model is presented in this paper. The goal is to assess the effectiveness of cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning information for improving the convective precipitation forecasting. The main concept of the technique is that utilizing real-time location, timing, and flash-rate data retrieved from a long-range lightning detection network, a regional/mesoscale meteorological model is informed about the deep moist convection spatiotemporal development and intensity. This information is then used to nudge the model-generated humidity profiles to empirical profiles as a function of the observed lightning intensity. The empirical humidity profiles are assumed to be representative of convective regimes since they have been produced on the basis of atmospheric soundings obtained during thunderstorm days. Case studies from three thunderstorm developments in a warm-season environment over the Mediterranean are used to investigate the relationship between lightning density and different empirical humidity profiles, and consequently demonstrate the impact of the technique on model precipitation forecasts. Results show that assimilation of lightning data can significantly improve the model’s prediction accuracy of convective precipitation in the assimilation period, while maintaining the improvement in short-range (up to 12 h) forecasts compared to the control case. The approach is general enough to be applied to any mesoscale model, but with an expectable varying degree of success. Its advantage when applied in an operational setting is that real-time lightning data responding promptly to the occurrence of convection would continuously get assimilated to update the moist state of the atmosphere in the model.
Boundary Layer and Shallow Cumulus Clouds in a Medium-Range Forecast of a Large-Scale Weather System
Authors: Bélair Stéphane , Mailhot Jocelyn , Girard Claude , Vaillancourt Paul
Published: July 2005

The role and impact that boundary layer and shallow cumulus clouds have on the medium-range forecast of a large-scale weather system is discussed in this study. A mesoscale version of the Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) atmospheric model is used to produce a 5-day numerical forecast of a midlatitude large-scale weather system that occurred over the Pacific Ocean during February 2003. In this version of GEM, four different schemes are used to represent (i) boundary layer clouds (including stratus, stratocumulus, and small cumulus clouds), (ii) shallow cumulus clouds (overshooting cumulus), (iii) deep convection, and (iv) nonconvective clouds. Two of these schemes, that is, the so-called MoisTKE and Kuo Transient schemes for boundary layer and overshooting cumulus clouds, respectively, have been recently introduced in GEM and are described in more detail.

The results show that GEM, with this new cloud package, is able to represent the wide variety of clouds observed in association with the large-scale weather system. In particular, it is found that the Kuo Transient scheme is mostly responsible for the shallow/intermediate cumulus clouds in the rear portion of the large-scale system, whereas MoisTKE produces the low-level stratocumulus clouds ahead of the system. Several diagnostics for the rear portion of the system reveal that the role of MoisTKE is mainly to increase the vertical transport (diffusion) associated with the boundary layer clouds, while Kuo Transient is acting in a manner more consistent with convective stabilization. As a consequence, MoisTKE is not able to remove the low-level shallow cloud layer that is incorrectly produced by the GEM nonconvective condensation scheme. Kuo Transient, in contrast, led to a significant reduction of these nonconvective clouds, in better agreement with satellite observations. This improved representation of stratocumulus and cumulus clouds does not have a large impact on the overall sea level pressure patterns of the large-scale weather system. Precipitation in the rear portion of the system, however, is found to be smoother when MoisTKE is used, and significantly less when the Kuo Transient scheme is switched on.
Limited-Area Fourier Spectral Models and Data Analysis Schemes: Windows, Fourier Extension, Davies Relaxation, and All That
Authors: Boyd John P.
Published: July 2005

Regional spectral models have previously periodized and blended limited-area data through ad hoc low-order schemes justified by intuition and empiricism. By using infinitely differentiable “window functions” or “bells” borrowed from wavelet theory, one can periodize with preservation of spectral accuracy. Similarly, it is shown through a mixture of theory and numerical examples that Davies relaxation for blending limited-area and global data in one-way nested forecasting can be performed using the same C∞ bells as employed for the Fourier blending.“The relative success of empirical methods . . . may be used as partial justification to allow us to make the daring approximation that the data on a limited area domain may be decomposed into a trend and a periodic perturbation, and to proceed with Fourier transformation of the latter.” Laprise (2003, p. 775)
Evaluation of an Urban Canopy Parameterization in a Mesoscale Model Using VTMX and URBAN 2000 Data
Authors: Chin Hung-Neng S. , Leach Martin J. , Sugiyama Gayle A. , Leone John M. , Walker Hoyt , Nasstrom J. S. , Brown Michael J.
Published: July 2005

A modified urban canopy parameterization (UCP) is developed and evaluated in a three-dimensional mesoscale model to assess the urban impact on surface and lower-atmospheric properties. This parameterization accounts for the effects of building drag, turbulent production, radiation balance, anthropogenic heating, and building rooftop heating/cooling. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) land-use data are also utilized to derive urban infrastructure and urban surface properties needed for driving the UCP. An intensive observational period with clear sky, strong ambient wind, and drainage flow, and the absence of a land–lake breeze over the Salt Lake Valley, occurring on 25–26 October 2000, is selected for this study.

A series of sensitivity experiments are performed to gain understanding of the urban impact in the mesoscale model. Results indicate that within the selected urban environment, urban surface characteristics and anthropogenic heating play little role in the formation of the modeled nocturnal urban boundary layer. The rooftop effect appears to be the main contributor to this urban boundary layer. Sensitivity experiments also show that for this weak urban heat island case, the model horizontal grid resolution is important in simulating the elevated inversion layer.

The root-mean-square errors of the predicted wind and temperature with respect to surface station measurements exhibit substantially larger discrepancies at the urban locations than their rural counterparts. However, the close agreement of modeled tracer concentration with observations fairly justifies the modeled urban impact on the wind-direction shift and wind-drag effects.
An Observational and Modeling Analysis of the Landfall of Hurricane Marty (2003) in Baja California, Mexico
Authors: Farfán Luis M. , Cortez Miguel
Published: July 2005

This paper documents the life cycle of Tropical Cyclone Marty, which developed in late September 2003 over the eastern Pacific Ocean and made landfall on the Baja California peninsula. Observations and best-track data indicate that the center of circulation moved across the southern peninsula and proceeded northward in the Gulf of California. A network of surface meteorological stations in the vicinity of the storm track detected strong winds. Satellite and radar imagery are used to analyze the structure of convective patterns, and rain gauges recorded total precipitation. A comparison of Marty’s features at landfall, with respect to Juliette (2001), indicates similar wind intensity but differences in forward motion and accumulated precipitation.

Official, real-time forecasts issued by the U.S. National Hurricane Center prior to landfall are compared with the best track. This resulted in a westward bias of positions with decreasing errors during subsequent forecast cycles. Numerical simulations from the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model were used to examine the evolution of the cyclonic circulation over the southern peninsula. The model was applied to a nested grid configuration with horizontal resolution as detailed as 3.3 km, with two (72- and 48-h) simulations. The output of the model provides a reasonable prediction of Marty’s motion during landfall and the circulation characteristics are consistent with the information derived from observations. Additionally, the model was used to estimate the role of the peninsular mountain ranges in a realistic simulation of the storm track over the Gulf of California.
An Observational Study of Intraseasonal Variations over Southeast Asia during the 1998 Rainy Season
Authors: Yokoi Satoru , Satomura Takehiko
Published: July 2005

In the present study, intraseasonal variations of precipitation over Thailand [Thailand daily rainfall (TDR)] during 1998 and the accompanying variations of the tropospheric circulation are analyzed, mainly with the use of rain gauge data and the Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX) Asian Monsoon Experiment (GAME) reanalysis version 1.5.

Wavelet analysis reveals that the amplitudes of the intraseasonal variations of the 1998 TDR exhibit two peaks. One peak is categorized as a 30–60-day variation that appeared in the early half of the rainy season, while the other peak is categorized as a 10–20-day variation that appears in the later half of the rainy season.

The variation of atmospheric circulation associated with the latter peak of the TDR is analyzed. When the 10–20-day variation of the TDR is in the most active phase, a negative streamfunction anomaly at the 850-hPa level exists over the Bay of Bengal, and a positive anomaly is found in the Southern Hemisphere to the south of the negative anomaly. Both anomalies are associated with cyclonic vortices and are accompanied by negative height anomalies at the same level. Such horizontal structures resemble the horizontal structure of an equatorial Rossby wave of the gravest meridional mode (n1ERW). The cyclonic disturbances move westward with speeds of 6–6.4 m s−1.

In the vertical, the disturbances have a first-baroclinic structure in the troposphere, with a node at the 300–400-hPa levels. In addition, the amplitude of the streamfunction anomaly in the lower troposphere is smaller than that in the upper troposphere over the western Pacific but larger than that in the upper troposphere over the Bay of Bengal.

The mechanism for the longitudinal difference in the vertical structure and comparison of the analyzed disturbance with n1ERW-type disturbances over the Pacific are also discussed.
Using Cluster Randomized Field Experiments to Study Voting Behavior
Authors: Arceneaux Kevin
Published: July 2005

Voter mobilization experiments are often conducted using individual-level randomization, which can be difficult to implement. A simpler approach is to randomly assign voting precincts, rather than individuals nested within them, to treatment and control groups. Not only is it easier and potentially less expensive to implement, it may allow researchers to study vote preference effects without collecting survey data. This article explores various methodological concerns that researchers should consider when designing and analyzing precinct-level experiments. These concerns are illustrated using data from a precinct-level randomized field experiment conducted in Kansas City, Missouri.
Caught in the Ground Wars: Mobilizing Voters during a Competitive Congressional Campaign
Authors: Bennion Elizabeth A.
Published: July 2005

This project examines the effectiveness of a nonpartisan voter mobilization drive in Indiana’s fiercely contested Second Congressional District. A student-based, non-partisan voter mobilization coalition conveyed nonpartisan get-out-the-vote messages through door-to-door canvassing in three South Bend precincts on the weekend before the November 2002 election. These get-out the vote efforts took place during a competitive election season—one that included door-to-door partisan campaign efforts by interest groups, political parties, and candidate campaigns. While the nonpartisan mobilization campaign did little to increase the likelihood of voting among older voters, it had a strong effect on voters younger than thirty—the voters least likely to be contacted by partisan campaigns.
An Experimental Field Study of the GOTV and Persuasion Effects of Partisan Direct Mail and Phone Calls
Authors: Cardy Emily Arthur
Published: July 2005

This study examines the get-out-the-vote (GOTV) and persuasion effects of partisan direct mail and phone calls on voter behavior. The conclusions are based on experimental field research from a 2002 state gubernatorial primary election. The study finds that neither partisan direct mail nor partisan phone calls, used independently or together, garner significant GOTV or persuasion effects. It also questions the common usage of self reported survey data as a means of evaluating the effectiveness of these types of communications. The findings in this study extend previous research on campaign communications by examining partisan communications and by looking at both the GOTV and persuasion effects of those communications. The results call for further examination of how to most effectively and efficiently communicate with and persuade potential voters.
Phone-Based GOTV—What’s on the Line? Field Experiments with Varied Partisan Components, 2002-2003
Authors: Mcnulty John E.
Published: July 2005

Most of the recent literature that investigates voter turnout and mobilization finds little or no impact on turnout as a result of get-out-the-vote (GOTV) phone drives. This article describes four field experiments embedded within GOTV phone drives conducted in the San Francisco Bay Area in November 2002 and October 2003. One of the drives was strictly nonpartisan, two were explicitly partisan (Democratic), and the last was quasi-partisan in that it was explicitly in opposition to a municipal proposition. These experiments were designed to investigate whether GOTV phone drives are effective tools for increasing turnout. None of the GOTV phone drives with a partisan or quasi-partisan component resulted in a detectable increase in voter turnout. The overall results raise serious questions about the efficacy of GOTV phone drives, particularly those with the intent of affecting electoral outcomes.
Partisan Mobilization Using Volunteer Phone Banks and Door Hangers
Authors: Nickerson David W.
Published: July 2005

This article presents the results from a statewide partisan voter mobilization experiment in Michigan during the 2002 gubernatorial election. The tactics studied are volunteer phone calls and door hangers. With regard to turnout, the conclusion reached is that volunteer phone calls boost turnout by 3.2 percentage points and door hangers boost turnout by 1.2 percentage points. This effect size implies that both mobilization technologies are cost-competitive with door knocking and that partisan and nonpartisan campaigns are equally effective at increasing turnout. A postelection survey was used to determine whether the partisan blandishments to vote changed candidate preference. No evidence of persuasion from campaign contact was detected by the survey. However, the survey did indicate that the campaign failed in targeting likely Democratic voters and excluding likely Republican voters, emphasizing the need for detailed party databases.
What We Should Know about the Effectiveness of Campaigns but Don’t
Authors: Levine Peter , Lopez Mark Hugo
Published: July 2005

It would be useful as well as interesting to understand more about why people decide to vote. The theoretical literature suggests that they weigh the costs and benefits of voting and also consider the moral obligation to participate. Relevant empirical evidence comes from surveys, comparisons of states with differing laws and electoral processes, and randomized field studies of voter mobilization efforts. The randomized experiments are by far the most rigorous sources, and they have yielded some insights about why people choose to vote or not to vote. However, much remains to be investigated, and this article provides a research agenda.
Meeting the Challenge of Latino Voter Mobilization
Authors: Michelson Melissa R.
Published: July 2005

Latino political participation rates are consistently lower than those for other racial/ethnic groups. While some of the disparities can be attributed to low levels of Latino citizenship, socioeconomic status, and age, lack of mobilization by political parties and candidates also contributes to the problem. Field experiments in voter mobilization have found that personal canvassing can have a significant effect on turnout. This article reviews four experiments in Latino voter mobilization, conducted over a period of three years in a variety of electoral settings. The results demonstrate that Latinos are very receptive to voter mobilization campaigns. Getting Latinos to the polls does not require unusually large budgets or special “Latino” approaches. Latino voters can be mobilized to vote by the same sorts of door-to-door, personal efforts that are currently in vogue among campaign professionals. Canvassing can increase Latino turnout substantially, and relatively cheaply, and may even influence election results.
Giving Voice to Latino Voters: A Field Experiment on the Effectiveness of a National Nonpartisan Mobilization Effort
Authors: Ramírez Ricardo
Published: July 2005

In this article, I present a summary of the findings of a randomized field experiment of 465,134 registered Latino voters, the largest such experiment on Latinos to date. The National Association of Latino Elected and Appointed Officials’s (NALEO’s) Voces del Pueblo voter mobilization effort in 2002 explored three alternative modes of communicating with voters: direct mail, robotic phone calls, and live phone calls from volunteers. Of the three, only live phone calls produced a statistically significant increase in voter turnout. The ineffectiveness of direct mail and robotic calls is consistent with results from other experimental campaigns. What remains unclear is the extent to which direct mail and robotic calls targeting low-propensity Latino voters would be more effective in presidential elections. For the present, it appears that the most effective way to mobilize low-propensity Latino voters is through phone banks staffed by volunteers.
Do Phone Calls Increase Voter Turnout? An Update
Authors: Gerber Alan S. , Green Donald P.
Published: July 2005

This article estimates the extent to which nonpartisan phone calls from commercial phone banks increase voter turnout. Prior to the 1998 and 2002 elections, randomized field experiments were conducted in which more than 1 million subjects were randomly assigned to treatment and control conditions. The results indicate that this type of phone calling campaign is ineffective.
Mobilizing Asian American Voters: A Field Experiment
Authors: Wong Janelle S.
Published: July 2005

This study examines the effects of mobilization on political participation among Asian Americans. It focuses on whether telephone calls and mail increase voter turnout among Asian Americans who live in high-density Asian American areas in Los Angeles County. Prior to the November 5, 2002, elections, a randomized voter mobilization field experiment was conducted. Lists of registered Asian Americans (Chinese, Korean, Indian, Filipino, and Japanese) were randomly assigned to treatment and control groups. A few days before Election Day, the treatment group received a phone call or postcard encouraging them to vote. After the election, voter turnout records were reviewed to compare turnout rates for the treatment and control groups. Multivariate analysis shows that telephone calls and mail increase voter turnout for Asian Americans.
The Effect of Identity-Based GOTV Direct Mail Appeals on the Turnout of Indian Americans
Authors: Trivedi Neema
Published: July 2005

This article presents the results of a randomized field experiment testing the effectiveness of three different identity-based appeals communicated via direct mail to registered Indian American voters in Queens County. The appeals made salient different identities: the voter as a U.S. citizen, a U.S. citizen and a person of color, or a U.S. citizen and an Indian American. The experiment informs the understanding of voter mobilization more generally and assists Indian American organizers in their efforts to incorporate the community into the U.S. political system. The findings show that a single mailing seems to have little effect on the turnout rates of Indian American voters, although there is some evidence that multiple mailings may have had some effect. None of the identity appeals were especially effective at bolstering turnout.
The Ideological Organization of Latin American Legislative Parties
Authors: Rosas Guillermo
Published: July 2005

Are legislative party systems in Latin America organized along ideological lines? This article presents a cross-country analysis of legislators’ positions on a variety of issues, such as government intervention in the economy, the value of democratic competition, attitudes toward cultural minorities, and views on international openness. The study is based on discriminant analysis of data from a 1997 survey of legislators in 12 countries. The purpose is to explore whether legislative parties in the region are ideologically organized and if so, to understand the substance and structure of the ideological dimensions that underlie legislative party systems. The analysis reveals variation in the programmatic organization of Latin American legislatures, emphasizing that political, cultural, and economic dimensions coalesce in different ways across countries to account for ideological disagreement among legislative parties.
In the Eye of the Beholder?
Authors: Anderson Christopher J. , Paskeviciute Aida , Sandovici Maria Elena , Tverdova Yuliya V.
Published: July 2005

Using cross-national survey data and information on government practices concerning human rights collected in 17 post-Communist states in Central and Eastern Europe, the authors examine the determinants of people’s attitudes about their country’s human rights situation. They find that not all people in countries that systematically violate human rights develop more negative opinions about their country’s human rights situation. However, results show high levels of disregard for human rights strongly affect evaluations of human rights practices among individuals with higher levels of education. Thus better educated respondents were significantly more likely to say there was respect for human rights in their country if they lived in a country with fewer violations of the integrity of the person or that protected political and civil rights; conversely, they were less likely to say so if they lived in a more repressive country or a country where political and civil rights were frequently violated.
Anchors and Democratic Change
Authors: Morlino Leonardo
Published: July 2005

Analyses of consolidation and internal crisis need to complement each other to better explain the change within a democracy. This article integrates, revises, and develops the results of the existing literature starting from the empirical results of a systematic, comparative empirical research on the Southern European countries. The main theoretical conclusion concerns the salience of the process of democratic anchoring, when consolidation is considered, and de-anchoring with reference to crisis. The different sections of the article analyze the notions of anchors, anchoring, and de-anchoring; the connections with legitimation, democratic consolidation, and crisis; the patterns of consolidation and crisis building in the four Southern European cases; and the explanations and the theoretical background of anchoring and de-anchoring. The concluding remarks illustrate the possible research developments with reference to other areas and the salience of anchoring for every democracy.
Institutional Quality and Perceptions of Representation in Advanced Industrial Democracies
Authors: Rohrschneider Robert
Published: July 2005

This study examines how well publics feel represented by their parliaments and governments in advanced industrial democracies. I argue that these perceptions are to a significant degree shaped by how well arbitrating institutions—bureaucracies and judiciaries—administer policies and adjudicate conflicts. A core premise is that the personal and salient character of contacts with these institutions informs citizens about how effectively other parts of a regime represent them. The results support the argument: When national administrative and judicial institutions work well, citizens are also more likely to believe that parliaments and governments account for their interests, net of economic factors. The main rival hypothesis receives surprisingly little support—a nation’s regime type exerts little influence on representational judgments.
Pipelines of Pork
Authors: Scheiner Ethan
Published: July 2005

The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has dominated Japanese politics since 1955, and the party’s even greater dominance of subnational level elections is much of the reason why. This article seeks to explain local electoral outcomes in Japan by focusing on two key features of the Japanese political system: the heavy centralization of governmental finances and an emphasis on clientelistic exchange. Because Japan’s political system focuses so heavily on the clientelist distribution of goods, local politicians and voters casting ballots in local elections have an incentive to align with parties that have access to the state budget. Because Japan’s public funds are primarily controlled by the central government, parties that control the national budget will be the most likely to benefit. In short, Japan’s fiscally centralized and clientelist system helps generate for the LDP a near monopoly on local power across most of Japan.
The Comprehension of Ostensible Speech Acts
Authors: Link Kristen E. , Kreuz Roger J.
Published: July 2005

Ostensible speech acts (OSAs) have been defined as possessing pretense, mutual recognition, collusion, ambivalence, and an off-record purpose. These researchers also noted that several features occur more often in ostensible than sincere speech (e.g., speaker hedges, violates preparatory conditions). The authors examined the role of these defining and characteristic features in the comprehension of OSAs. Participants read conversations containing sincere, ambiguous, or ostensible speech acts, and provided ratings of “goodness,” pretense, or mutual recognition, predicted the next speech act, judged the attitude of the speaker, or indicated the reason for the speech act. Participants differentiated between ostensible, ambiguous, and sincere speech in their “goodness” ratings, they perceived the defining features in OSAs, but not in sincere speech, and the characteristic features served as cues that an utterance was ostensible. These results support Isaacs and Clark’s description of OSAs.
Word Use in Emotional Narratives about Failed Romantic Relationships and Subsequent Mental Health
Authors: Boals Adriel , Klein Kitty
Published: July 2005

The authors investigated how word use in a stressful narrative is related to levels of grief and intrusive and avoidant thinking associated with the stressful event. A total of 218 college students who had experienced the breakup of a romantic relationship during the preceding 12 months produced a written narrative of the relationship and subsequent breakup using an expressive writing procedure. Participants used more negative emotion, cause, sensory, and first person singular words when describing the breakup in comparison to describing the period when they were still dating. In addition, greater avoidance of the breakup predicted greater use of negative emotion, first person singular and third-person pronouns, and less use of cognitive words. Conversely, levels of grief predicted less use of causal words and greater use of first person singular pronouns. The authors argue that use of cognitive words reflect an active search for meaning and understanding of the stressful event.
Affective Influences on Language Use
Authors: Forgas Joseph P. , Tehani Gunasekra
Published: July 2005

How does mood influence verbal communication? Based on recent affect-cognition theories and communication research on message production, this experiment predicted and found (a) a significant affect-congruent influence on performance feedback messages, that (b) was significantly greater for inexperienced rather than expert communicators. Participants, who were either experts (managers) or novices (other staff) in a large consulting company, received a mood induction and then produced verbal feedback to an employee whose performance file they previously studied. Negative mood produced more negative and less polite feedback strategies, and these effects were stronger for novices rather than experts. The cognitive mechanisms mediating mood effects on verbal communication are discussed, and the implications of the results for our understanding of verbal communication in organizations, and for recent affect-cognition theories are considered.
Writing about September 11, 2001
Authors: Graves Kristi D. , Schmidt John E. , Andrykowski Michael A.
Published: July 2005

Linguistic characteristics of writing about the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks were evaluated through a social cognitive processing theory framework. A total of 537 people completed an Internet-based survey and 177 chose to write about their thoughts and feelings related to 9/11. People who wrote about their thoughts and feelings reported more total symptoms of 9/11-related distress and greater attention to feelings. Linguistic differences emerged among participants classified by high, moderate, or low distress and were also evident in terms of participants’ emotional intelligence and perceived social environment.
Why do People Give?
Authors: Van Slyke David M. , Brooks Arthur C.
Published: July 2005

As the nonprofit sector grows and its relationship with the public sector deepens, nonprofit managers are working harder at developing donated financial and human resources. Although much research on nonprofit fund-raising has looked at who donates and which fund-raising strategies are most effective, no work to date has connected the two concepts; to illuminate which fund-raising strategies work with which donors. Using interview data conducted with nonprofit fund-raising executives and survey data on Atlanta residents, the authors estimate the impacts of sociodemographic and economic characteristics on the success of different donor development approaches. After constructing conceptual and empirical models, the authors’ data analysis allows them to develop a set of management implications that will assist nonprofit managers in crafting development strategies for the organizations they operate.
Determinism, Social Science, and Public Administration
Authors: Spicer Michael W.
Published: July 2005

This article critically examines the argument that mainstream social science research should play a greater role in public administration inquiry than it has. Drawing in significant part on the ideas of the late Isaiah Berlin, it is argued here that the deterministic view of human action that is offered by such research is not very useful to public administration practice and, if overemphasized, may even pose dangers to our values of human freedom and responsibility.
The Human Side of Managing for Results
Authors: Burke Brendan F. , Costello Bernadette C.
Published: July 2005

This article establishes and tests a scheme for studying as well as implementing managing-for-results (MFR) reforms. Previous research on MFR and “reinvention” divides between survey-based research, which has a potential to overstate the level of success in implementing best practices such as strategic planning and outcome measurement, and case-based research, much of which identifies difficulties with the implementation of these reform techniques. This article assesses the extent to which variation in MFR implementation occurs in 24 “reputation leader” municipalities and the likely human dimensions that affect MFR implementation across the study jurisdictions. These include the extent to which employee participation is a part of the reform and employee buy-in is pursued, the presence of sustained and persistent leadership on behalf of the reform, and the establishment and nurturing of a supportive organizational culture underlying reform efforts. This analysis produces a more robust classification and framework for studying and implementing MFR.
Virtual Jungles
Authors: Dumont Georgette , Candler George
Published: July 2005

By making it possible for once dispersed individuals to communicate and cooperate online, the Internet has raised the importance of cybercommunities—informal, online collectivities that provide support by means of many-to-many communication—as an overlooked delivery system for the provision of public goods. The importance to public administration of these communities is discussed through multisectoral analysis. Existing case study-based research on the topic is empirically assessed by mapping the cyberuniverses of three issue areas discussed in that research. Although many of the findings of the existing research remain valid, the internal governance, and so the accountability and legitimacy, of cybercommunities are found to be weak. This raises serious questions about current understanding regarding the implications of online organization for public administration.
Someone to Watch Over me
Authors: Kloha Philip , Weissert Carol S. , Kleine Robert
Published: July 2005

Although the fiscal condition of local governments has been a recent concern for some states, there is considerable ambiguity about what constitutes fiscal difficulties and how to recognize them before they become fiscal emergencies. This article outlines the results of a 50-state survey to identify and classify indicators states use to assess or monitor fiscal conditions in their local governments. The survey revealed that most states did not have such indicators in place, and those that do rarely agree on which indicators to construct. Only 15 states have in place indicators to assess or monitor local financial conditions, and many of these states use indicators that do not identify local problems before they become major. Most indicators used by states are based on operating position variables such as fund balances and are predicated on the assumption that local financial emergencies are management problems rather than the result of longer term trends.
Adolescents’ Implicit Theories of Maturity
Authors: Barker Erin T. , Galambos Nancy L.
Published: July 2005

Conceptions of maturity were explored among 170 adolescents in Grades 7 and 10. Adolescents were asked at what ages (and why) they expected to reach adulthood, experience the most freedom, and have the most fun. Adolescents expected to have fun at an earlier age than they expected freedom or adulthood. The majority of adolescents cited the acquisition of independence as critical to their expectations for the ages of adulthood (71%) and freedom (74%). Some chronological transitions, such as reaching driving age (41%) as well as acquiring independence (41%), were associated with the expected age for fun. Adolescents who felt older than their age and engaged in more problem behaviors but were low on psychosocial maturity, were more likely than other adolescents to cite chronological transitions as indicative of freedom. The importance of these conceptions for guiding adolescents through the transition to adulthood is discussed.
Chronological and Subjective Age in Emerging Adulthood
Authors: Galambos Nancy L. , Turner Pamela K. , Tilton-Weaver Lauree C.
Published: July 2005

This study explored the relationship between chronological age and subjective age in emerging adulthood. Predictors of variability in subjective age were also examined. A sample of 190 university students (140 females, 50 males) ages 17 to 29 completed questionnaires assessing their subjective age, psychosocial maturity, number of role transitions, financial dependence, economic pressure, and alcohol use. There was a negative linear relationship between subjective age and chronological age, with older individuals feeling younger than their chronological age. The crossover from an older to a younger subjective age occurred at about 25.5 years. Psychosocial maturity was the only significant predictor of subjective age, with higher maturity related to feeling older. The crossover from an older to a younger subjective age is discussed as a transition-linked turning point in which emerging adults redefine who they are in the context of changing reference groups and the newness of their recently acquired autonomy.
Emerging Adulthood
Authors: Shulman Shmuel , Feldman Benni , Blatt Sidney J. , Cohen Omri , Mahler Amalya
Published: July 2005

Seventy-two Israeli emerging adults were interviewed for descriptions of themselves and accounts of their personal, social, and professional dreams, current life status, romantic relationships, and relationships with their parents. Interviews were transcribed and rated on scales assessing self-processes, attainment of professional and romantic tasks, and relationships with parents. Cluster analysis revealed three distinctive types of emerging adults: low integrated self and competence; competence combined with an integrated and authentic self; and acting competent combined with low self-authenticity. Distinctive patterns of relationships with parents were found among the three cluster members. The distinction among the three clusters is discussed within the framework of developmental processes of emerging adulthood.
Academic Mobility and Immigration
Authors: Tremblay Karine
Published: July 2005

In the late 1990s, sustained economic growth in most Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries and the development of the information economy led to a considerable increase in migration of highly skilled individuals, especially in science and technology. Some OECD countries relaxed their immigration policies to attract highly qualified foreigners to sectors facing labour shortages. In the context of increasing internationalization of education, academic mobility appears as a potential source of qualified workers from host countries’ perspective, either during their studies or through subsequent recruitment. Study abroad can be part of a deliberate immigration strategy from the perspective of students. The article reviews the links between academic mobility and immigration and assesses impact on immigration policies. Indeed, some OECD countries are allowing foreign students to apply for resident status from within their territory as part of an immigration recruitment strategy. The impact for sending countries is also envisaged.
Extending the Stay: Using Community-Based Research and Service Learning to Enhance Short-Term Study Abroad
Authors: Lewis Tammy L. , Niesenbaum Richard A.
Published: July 2005

Short-term study abroad (STSA) is an important alternative for students not likely to participate in semester-long or yearlong international study abroad programs. The authors present an assessment of their short-term study abroad program, Environmental and Cultural Conservation in Latin America. The authors show that STSA programs appeal to students not currently choosing to go abroad. The authors use four specific strategies to create outcomes that allow them to meet some of the goals of longer term study abroad. These strategies include (a) making links to campus coursework, (b) conducting community-based research, (c) participating in community service learning, and (d) emphasizing research skills and interdisciplinary connections. The assessment showed that STSA resulted in altered course of study, subsequent travel or study abroad, increased interest in interdisciplinary studies, and influenced perceptions regarding globalization.
Intercultural Attitudes Predict Favorable Study Abroad Expectations of U.S. College Students
Authors: Kim Randi I. , Goldstein Susan B.
Published: July 2005

This study focused on identifying intercultural attitudes associated with favorable expectations about participation in study abroad programs. A total of 282 U.S. 1st-year college students completed a questionnaire that included measures of ethnocentrism, intercultural communication apprehension, language interest and competence, prejudice, intolerance of ambiguity, and expectations about study abroad. Stepwise multiple regression analysis indicated that favorable expectations about study abroad were best predicted by levels of language interest, followed by low ethnocentrism and low intercultural communication apprehension. Female participants were significantly more likely than male participants to have positive expectations of study abroad and indicated significantly less ethnocentrism and intercultural communication apprehension and greater language interest. These findings suggest that interest in international study programs may be facilitated in part by interventions addressing intergroup attitudes as well as programs that help students understand the value of language study.