bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
What is the Value of Scientific Knowledge? An Application to Global Warming Using the PRICE Model
Authors: Nordhaus William D. , Popp David
Published: May 2011

Governments must cope with the enormous uncertainties about both future climate change as well as the costs and benefits of slowing climate change. This study analyses the value of improved information about a variety of geophysical and economic processes. The value of information is estimated using the "PRICE model" which is a probabilistic extension of earlier models of the economics of global warming. The study uses five different approaches to estimating the value of information about all uncertain parameters and about individual parameters. It is estimated that the value of early information is between $1 and $2 billion for each year that resolution of uncertainty is moved toward the present. We estimate that the most important uncertain variables are the damages of climate change and the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Resolving the uncertainties about these two parameters would contribute 75 percent of the value of improved knowledge.
Is There an East-West Split in North American Natural Gas Markets?
Authors: Serletis Apostolos
Published: May 2011

This paper presents evidence concerning shared stochastic trends in North American natural gas (spot) markets, using monthly data for the period that natural gas has been traded on organized exchanges (from June, 1990 to January, 1996). In doing so, it uses the Engle and Granger (1987) approach for estimating bivariate cointegrating relationships as well as Johansen's (1988) maximum likelihood approach for estimating cointegrating relationships in multivariate vector autoregressive models. The results indicate that the east-west split does not exist.
Economic Inefficiency of Passive Transmission Rights in Congested Electricity Systems with Competitive Generation
Authors: Oren Shmuel S.
Published: May 2011

The main thesis of this paper is that passive transmission rights such as Transmission Congestion Contracts (TCCs) that are compensated ex-post based on nodal prices resulting from optimal dispatch by an Independent System Operator (ISO) will be preempted by the strategic bidding of the generators. Thus, even when generation is competitive, rational expectations of congestion will induce implicit collusion enabling generators to raise their bids above marginal costs and capture the congestion rents, leaving the TCCs uncompensated. These conclusions are based on a Cournot model of competition across congested transmission links where an ISO dispatches generators optimally based on bid prices. We characterize the Cournot equilibrium in congested electricity networks with two and three nodes. We show that absent active transmission rights trading, the resulting equilibrium may be at an inefficient dispatch and congestion rents will be captured by the generators. We also demonstrate how active trading of transmission rights in parallel with 42 competitive energy market can prevent the price distortion and inefficient dispatch associated with passive transmission rights.
Buying Time: Franchising Hazardous and Nuclear Waste Cleanup
Authors: Hale Douglas R.
Published: May 2011

This paper describes a private franchise approach to long-term custodial care, monitoring and eventual cleanup of hazardous and nuclear waste sites. The franchise concept could be applied to Superfund sites, decommissioning commercial reactors and safeguarding their wastes and to Department of Energy sites. Privatization would reduce costs by enforcing efficient operations and capital investments during the containment period, by providing incentives for successful innovation and by sustaining containment until the cleanup's net benefits exceed its costs. The franchise system would also permit local governments and citizens to demand and pay for more risk reduction than provided by the federal government. In principle, they would have the option of taking over site management. The major political drawback of the idea is that it requires society to be explicit about what it is willing to pay for now to protect current and future generations.
Fundamental U.S. Tax Reform and Energy Markets
Authors: Jorgenson Dale W. , Wilcoxen Peter J.
Published: May 2011

This paper presents a new intertemporal general equilibrium model of the U. S. economy incorporating a detailed representation of U.S. tax structure. We employ the model to analyze the impact of fundamental tax reform on U.S. energy markets. More rapid economic growth would dominate energy conservation, leading to greater energy consumption and higher carbon emissions.
Computable Equilibrium Models and the Restructuring of the European Electricity and Gas Markets
Authors: Smeers Yves
Published: May 2011

More regulation, not less, is temporarily necessary, if effective, competition is to be established in network industries. This paradox places new requirements on computable models: they should provide realistic descriptions of technologies but also of markets and institutions. Industrial economics and computation of economic equilibrium can help achieve this dual requirement. This paper discusses their potential in the context of the deregulation of the European gas and electricity sectors. Some key elements of the European legislative process are first presented in order to point out the diversity of institutions that can emerge and to highlight the need to model institutions. Perfect competition equilibrium models although institutionally poor are argued to be useful for ex post analysis. Applications of the standard Cournot and' Bertrand paradigms in ex ante analysis of gas and electricity markets are reviewed next. Models combining market power and externalities are then discussed with reference to electricity restructuring. Finally multistage equilibrium models are introduced in the context of investment in gas and electricity. Computation remarks conclude the paper.
A Market Power Model with Strategic Interaction in Electricity Networks
Authors: Hogan William W.
Published: May 2011

When transmission constraints limit the flow of power in an electric network, there are likely to be strong interaction effects across different parts of the system. A model of imperfect competition with strategic interactions in an electricity transmission network illustrates a possible exercise of market power that differs from the usual analysis of imperfect competition in more familiar product markets. Large firms could exercise horizontal market power by increasing their own production, lowering some prices, and exploiting the necessary feasibility constraints in the network to foreclose competition from others. This behavior depends on the special properties of electric networks, and reinforces the need for market analysis with more realistic network models.
The Management of Flexibility in the Upstream Petroleum Industry
Authors: Laughton David
Published: May 2011

This paper is the third in a series that describes how Modern Asset Pricing (MAP) may be used for project evaluation in the upstream petroleum industry. It demonstrates how MAP can be applied to projects where policies for the management of future flexibility must be considered within the context of the valuation. We illustrate this use of MAP by looking specifically at flexibility in the timing of the exploration, delineation, and development of an oil prospect, and the timing of the abandonment of the subsequent developed field. We use examples to show how the value and management of flexibility depends on the amount of oil price and reserve size uncertainty. We find that prospect value increases with both types of uncertainty. We also find that all actions, from exploration to abandonment, occur later with greater oil price uncertainty. Conversely, we find that exploration and delineation occur sooner with greater reserve uncertainty. The reasons for these results are given.
Weather and Pollution Abatement Costs
Authors: Leightner Jonathan E. , Lovell C.A. Knox
Published: May 2011

Mae Moh Mine and Power Plant operates a lignite mine and a minemouth coal-fired electricity generation plant in Lampang province in northern Thailand. Mae Moh is Thailand's largest lignite mine, and Mae Moh Power Plant accounts for nearly 20 percent of Thailand's installed generating capacity The power plant also generates air pollution, principally sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, as a byproduct of burning lignite. The plant's ambient concentrations of SO2 have been monitored for nearly a decade, which enables us to incorporate concentrations data with conventional input and output data to calculate the shadow value of being able to generate the SO2 concentrations, or the revenue forgone by having to abate the concentrations. We compare the cost of abating with current technology to the cost of adding new technology in the form of desulfurizaiton plants.
Technological Options for Power Generation
Authors: Hansen Ulf
Published: May 2011

The demand for electricity is expected to double from 1990 to 2020. This will require 4000 GW of new capacity to be constructed worldwide, both as additions and replacements. Technical progress has made new conventional power plants more efficient and environment friendly than existing ones, and they can be built quicker and cheaper. Fossil fuels already form the basis for two thirds of all electricity and their importance will continue to grow, both as gasfired combined cycle and as coal-fired steam cycle. The technical choice depends on a wide array of considerations, including financial engineering. In liberalised electricity markets with global sourcing the emphasis is on minimum costs and cash-flow. Independent project developers currently fund 30% of all new generating capacity investments and the share is growing. The expanding role of fossil fuels runs counter to policies to reduce the emission of greenhouse gases. To reverse the trend would require strong support for renewables and acceptance of nuclear power.
The Environmental Challenges of Power Generation
Authors: Shelling Thomas C.
Published: May 2011

In two decades, three momentous changes have occurred that will influence power generation for decades to come. Coal has become a culprit responsible for respiratory disease and acid rain; carbon dioxide has become a culprit widely believed capable of changes in climate greater than any that have occurred in ten thousand years; and nuclear power in many countries has become an outcast. The irony is that nuclear power promised clean air and no greenhouse effect. The great gathering of heads of state in Rio in 1992 was the celebration of a problem; whether it was the beginning of a solution remains to be seen.
Alternatives to the Strait of Hormuz
Authors: Brito Dagobert L. , Sheshinski Eytan
Published: May 2011

In this paper we study the cost of adding additional capacity to transport oil from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to the Red Sea. If this capacity is obtained by adding power to the existing pipelines, the cost would increase by approximately 14 cents per barrel, but would require large capital expenditures. If this capacity is obtained by using Drag Reduction Agents, the cost would increase by 25 to 65 cents per barrel with minor capital expenditures. Since Arabian oil is inframarginal, these increased costs should have no impact on the supply of oil.
Modeling Electricity Pricing in a Deregulated Generation Industry: The Potential for Oligopoly Pricing in a Poolco
Authors: Rudkevich Aleksandr , Duckworth Max , Rosen Richard
Published: May 2011

We calculate the electricity prices that would result from a pure "poolco" market with identical profit-maximizing generating firms. We advance theoretical concepts developed by Klemperer and Meyer (1989) and Green and Newbery (1992), and propose a new formula for the instantaneous market clearing price when generating firms adopt bidding strategies given by the Nash Equilibrium. Applying this formula to empirical electricity supply and demand data, we find that even in markets with a relatively high number of firms, the price of electricity is significantly higher than the short-run marginal cost of generation. We express the average annual price mark-up with a Price-Cost Margin Index, and show how it varies with market concentration, as measured by the Herfindahl-Hirschmann Index (HHI). We conclude that the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's use of the HHI in its merger guidelines could prove inadequate in addressing market power concerns in deregulated poolco markets.
Short Term Energy Forecasting with Neural Networks
Authors: McMenamin J. Stuart , Monforte Frank A.
Published: May 2011

Artificial neural networks are beginning to be used by electric utilities, to forecast hourly system loads on a day ahead basis. This paper discusses the neural network specification in terms of conventional econometric language, providing parallel concepts for terms such as training, learning, and nodes in the, hidden layer. It is shown that these models are flexible nonlinear equations that can be estimated using nonlinear least squares. It is argued that these models are especially well suited to hourly load forecasting, reflecting the presence of important nonlinearities and variable interactions. The paper proceeds to show how conventional statistics, such as the BIC and MAPE statistics can be used to select the number of nodes in the hidden layer. It is concluded that these models provide a powerful, robust and sensible approach to hourly load forecasting that will provide modest improvements in forecast accuracy relative to well-specified regression models.
Crude Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Performance: Where Does the Asymmetry Reside?
Authors: Huntington Hillard G.
Published: May 2011

Sustained decreases in crude oil prices appear to affect the U.S. economy differently than sustained increases. This paper shows that a significant part of the observed asymmetry is due to adjustments within the energy sector and not within the rest of the economy. In particular, sustained decreases in petroleum product or general energy prices do not appear to have qualitatively different macroeconomic impacts than do sustained price increases. The singular focus on crude oil price changes in previous studies is misplaced. Moreover, the 1986 oil price collapse did not operate in isolation from other important events. As crude oil prices fell in the 1986 period, other factors caused a major devaluation of the U.S. dollar that had potentially important effects on the U.S. economy.
Methods for Measuring the Oil Import Reduction Premium and the Oil Stockpile Premium
Authors: Plummer James L.
Published: May 2011

Energy problems can be differentiated into the following three broad categories: 1. Oil supply disruptions. These can cause both large short-term price increases and huge short-term economic losses. Some of the price increase impacts may persist after the disruption is over. Energy policies to address this problem, such as oil stockpiles, must have impacts beginning in a zero- to five-year time frame.
Load Management: Rationing Versus Peak Load pricing
Authors: Berg Sanford V.
Published: May 2011

Rising costs in the electric utility industry have focused attention on ways to control or adjust kilowatt-hours (kWh) consumed during certain hours of the day. The economist's solution has tended to involve support for peak load pricing (PLP). In theory, PLP structures are supposed to reflect the opportunity cost to society of providing electricity at particular hours. However, the problem of measuring marginal opportunity costs is difficult at best, and few electricity-pricing schemes that have been proposed set prices equal to marginal opportunity costs. Furthermore, there are costs involved in using price signals: monitoring hourly electricity consumption involves further capital expenditures; consumer acceptance and understanding of complex pricing schemes is questionable; and, even if the "correct" signals are given, it is not clear that residential (and other) consumers are responsive to higher prices during periods of peak usage, and this ambiguity complicates the electric utility planning process.
Regional Growth and Energy Determinants: Implications for the Future
Authors: Lakshmanan T. R.
Published: May 2011

Energy is used in the production, transportation, and delivery of all goods and services, and is thus crucial to the welfare of a modern industrial society. Recent problems with energy, such as higher prices and the uncertainty of supplies, have consequently had adverse effects on industrial input prices, transport budgets, and the cost of living. These effects, in turn, have prompted a variety of adjustments, such as energy conservation-through reductions in energy intensity and through acquisition of energy efficient capital stock-and substitution of cheaper and more abundant fuels. Since some aspects of fuel switching lead to significant shortfalls in environmental quality, environmental considerations may constrain future energy developments.
Balancing Energy Supply and Demand: A Fifty-Year Global Perspective
Authors: Basile Paul S.
Published: May 2011

Over the next five decades, even with vigorous conservation measures in industrialized regions, increasing needs for liquid fuels throughout the world may exceed the capabilities of global energy supply systems. The "energy problem," viewed in a sufficiently long-term and global perspective, is not an energy problem, strictly speaking, but an oil problem, or more precisely, a liquid fuels problem.
The U.N. Conference on New and Renewable Sources of Energy: Response to the Challenge of the Global Energy Transition
Authors: Miller Morris
Published: May 2011

The world community is being forced to navigate a transition, over the next few decades, to a future that must entail a radical shift away from dependence on hydrocarbons. The pressure for change arising from the 1973 "oil price shock" is mounting with each year, despite the periodic respites characterized as "oil gluts."
Air Quality Implications of a Nuclear Moratorium: An Alternative Analysis
Authors: Bopp Anthony , Loose Verne , Kolstad Charles , Pendley Robert
Published: May 2011

The role of nuclear power in the nation's energy future is and probably will continue to be one of the principal energy policy issues in the United States. Relatively inexpensive coal reserves and escalating costs of light water reactors have eroded a once-large cost advantage enjoyed by nuclear technologies. While the relative cost advantage of nuclear over coal electric power has become a subject of debate, other less concrete issues have surfaced and often overshadow economic arguments. Antinuclear "forces" generally view the technology as the essence of what they consider wrong with modern technological society. Pronuclear "forces" counter that much fear associated with nuclear power derives from the newness of the technology and that the air quality and possible economic gains associated with nuclear power make it the preferable choice for future electricity generation.
An Analysis of Department of Energy Residential Appliance Efficiency Standards
Authors: Hartman Raymond S.
Published: May 2011

Over the past several years, the Department of Energy (DOE) and its predecessor agencies have initiated an array of policies aimed at limiting domestic consumption of fossil fuels. Several policy initiatives, aimed at residential fossil-based energy conservation, have included residential appliance efficiency standards, the commercialization of residential applications of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations and solar thermal appliances, and the implementation of energy performance standards for buildings. Each of these programs alone will reduce residential fossil fuel consumption. However, it remains unclear how they interact. In this article I examine how two programs may interact. In particular, I assess how well appliance efficiency standards will reduce fuel consumption and whether a standards program will conflict with or complement the DOE's PV commercialization efforts.
Expansio ad Absurdum
Authors: Lovins Amory
Published: May 2011

In 1977 I had the pleasure of Wolf Hafele's hospitality at IIASA while writing Soft Energy Paths. I have since been following his group's activities and looking forward to seeing what their protracted and costly energy study might produce. Already being extensively publicized as a careful, comprehensive, and objective assessment of long-term energy options, valuable for both policy makers and their constituents, the IIASA study is being given considerable credence by the credulous, and often the benefit of the doubt by those too busy, bemused, or inexpert to dig into its bulky technical details.
Natural Gas Curtailment Policy: Where Do We Go from Here?
Authors: Hall George R.
Published: May 2011

Natural gas production in the United States peaked in 1973 at 22.6 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) per year and has averaged about 19 Tcf each year since then. A more basic measure of natural gas supply is reserve additions, the amount of natural gas added to the nation's producible inventory. Reserve additions dropped precipitously in 1967, from 21 Tcf to 13.7 Tcf per year. Since then, they have fluctuated around 9 Tcf per year.
The Price Elasticity for Gasoline Revisited
Authors: Pelaez Rolando F.
Published: May 2011

Energy conservation has been a major goal of three administrations, yet disagreement about how to achieve it has hampered conservation efforts. Advocates of nonmarket rationing claim that gasoline demand is highly inelastic, and hence that higher prices would result mainly in substantial income redistribution. In contrast, economists typically point to the price mechanism as the best method for promoting conservation. Clearly the issue depends to a great degree on the price elasticity of demand for energy. Since nearly one-half of the petroleum consumed in the United States is used as motor fuel, this note focuses on the price elasticity for gasoline.
The Marginal Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Authors: Tol Richard S. J.
Published: May 2011

Estimates of the marginal costs of greenhouse gas emissions are an important input to the decision how much society would want to spend on greenhouse gas emission reduction. Marginal cost estimates in the literature range between $5 and $25 per tonne of carbon. Using similar assumptions, the FUND model finds marginal costs of $9 23/tC, depending on the discount rate. If the aggregation of impacts over countries accounts for inequalities in income of 3. Marginal costs per region are an order of magnitude smaller than global marginal costs. The ratios between the marginal costs of CO2 and those of CH4 and N2O are roughly equal to the global warming potentials of these gases. The uncertainty about the marginal costs is large and right-skewed. The expected value of the marginal costs lies about 35% above the best guess, the 95-percentile about 250%.
Some New Ethanol Technology: Cost Competition and Adoption Effects in the Petroleum Market
Authors: Gallagher Paul , Johnson Donald
Published: May 2011

This study examines the adoption prospects and market effects for fuels made from agricultural materials. New ethanol processing methods may eventually enable ethanol production from cellulose materials. A cost analysis suggests that corn residue-based production could be competitive with petroleum based gasoline because land-cost recovery is unnecessary. A supply analysis for U.S. corn residue accounts for potential livestock use and environmental factors. Some simulations are based on a petroleum market model, the residue supply estimate, and adoption of the new ethanol processing technology; results suggest a petroleum price reduction. The benefit-cost analysis for this technology accounts for the oligopoly-offsetting effect of additional supplies and the option valuef or loss reductions in the event of an embargo. Substantial underestimates of the technology benefit will occur unless the chance of embargo and oligopoly pricing are taken into account.
Demand for Ground Transportation Fuel and Pricing Policy in Asian Tigers: A Comparative Study of Korea and Taiwan
Authors: Banaszak Sara , Chakravorty Ujjayant , Leung PingSun
Published: May 2011

This paper examines the demand for gasoline and diesel in the ground transportation sectors of South Korea and Taiwan, comparing the effects of their different pricing policies and stages of economic growth. To account for substitutability between the two fuels, the model proposed here uses a system of equations estimated simultaneously with time-series data from 1973-1992. Results yield demand elasticities that confirm previous research showing that oil product demand is generally price inelastic, while income elasticities (reflecting a longer period of economic growth than previous studies in the Asian region) are lower than those previously reported. The estimated demand functions are then used to generate forecasts for both countries and, in particular, for an assumed reduction in a 180% tax on gasoline in Korea. Forecasted increases in demand by the year 2010 range from 40 to 180%, while the tax analysis suggests that Korea's pricing policy has reduced total demand and promoted the use of diesel over gasoline.
Energy Intensity and Carbon Emission Responses to Technological Change: The U.S. Outlook
Authors: Kydes Andy S.
Published: May 2011

Technological progress, energy use, energy intensity, and carbon mitigation are tightly intertwined concepts within the worldwide climate change debate. The state-of-the-art National Energy Modeling System (NEMS) is used to examine, for the United States: (a) the potential role of technological progress on energy supply, consumption, and prices in U.S. energy markets and their impact on carbon emissions; (b) how "success" on one side of the supply or demand equation may reduce the potential benefits of technological progress on the other side; and (c) the sensitivity of energy intensity in the U.S. to technological change and adoption. Some of the key findings of the analysis include: (a) technological progress alone (without significant and effective new policies) is insufficient to achieve reduction of carbon emissions at or near 1990 levels by 2010; (b) successful R&D programs that improve the availability and market acceptance of cost-efficient transportation technologies, coupled with successful oil and gas supply R&D programs, could have a significant impact on reducing U.S. dependence on imported oil; (c) the annual rate of decline of energy intensity (primary energy used per dollar of GDP) between 1996 and 2015 appears to be bounded by 1.25 percent when real energy prices are relatively stable or gradually rising, even when more advanced technologies are made available to the market.
Coal Subsidies and Global Carbon Emissions
Authors: Light Miles K.
Published: May 2011

It has been suggested that eliminating coal production subsidies could substantially reduce global carbon emissions. This paper finds otherwise. Using a dynamic model of the international coal market, the paper investigates the consequences of subsidy elimination in a model incorporating sector specific capital constraints. In the short-run, following elimination of subsidies, producers with excess capacity divert domestic production into the export market, softening price increases. Over time, low cost exporters gain market share from the swing supplier, which further attenuates the market response to subsidy elimination. Given this market structure, production subsidy elimination in Europe and Japan may reduce world steam coal demand by as little as 0.5%, and global CO2 emissions by only 0.2
Explaining Cointegration Analysis: Part 1
Authors: Hendry David F. , Juselius Katarina
Published: May 2011

'Classical' econometric theory assumes that observed data come from a stationary process, where means and variances are constant over time. Graphs of economic time series, and the historical record of economic forecasting, reveal the invalidity of such an assumption. Consequently, we discuss the importance of stationarity for empirical modeling and inference; describe the effects of incorrectly assuming stationarity; explain the basic concepts ofnon -stationarity; note some sources of non-stationarity; formulate a class of non -stationary processes (autoregressions with unit roots) that seem empirically relevant for analyzing economic time series; and show when an analysis can be transformed by means of differencing and cointegrating combinations so stationarity becomes a reasonable assumption. We then describe how to test for unit roots and cointegration. Monte Carlo simulations and empirical examples illustrate the analysis.
Lessons from Ltility Conservation Programs
Authors: Wirl Franz
Published: May 2011

This paper considers the design, incentives and effectiveness of U.S. demand side management (DSM) programs and tries to explain why this ambitious, almost unanimously embraced initiative failed. Problems on the demand side result from consumers' private information that implies that substantial principal-agent slippage must accompany any conservation incentive the utility offers to the consumer. Moreover, the regulatory incentives induce the American utility to select inefficient programs. Therefore, the utility has little to gain from deterring such strategic reactions and cheating by consumers. As a consequence, the reported conservation exists largely on paper but not in reality. This ex-post assessment is important for two reasons. First, European countries (Scandinavia, Germany, Austria and others) have been eager to repeat this American regulatory 'success'. Second, the problems addressed in this paper would apply to another round of conservation programs induced by the concern about global warming.
Extracting Common Oil: Cooperation or Competition?
Authors: Hannesson Rognvaldur
Published: May 2011

This paper considers how likely it is that a given number of agents who share a homogeneous oil reservoir will exploit the reservoir for their common benefit. A game-theoretical model is used, examining whether one agent would profit from deviating from the cooperative strategy, given that the remaining agents would follow a subgame-perfect retaliation strategy. The paper also examines the sensitivity of the cooperative solution to the number of agents, the time it takes to discover a deviation, the value of production relative to investment, and the discount rate. It is found that the cooperative solution is very sensitive to the number of agents; with more than three agents the cooperative solution becomes very unlikely.
The Target Revenue Model and the World Oil Market: Empirical Evidence from 1971 to 1994
Authors: Alhajji A.F. , Huettner David
Published: May 2011

This study draws on other studies that concluded OPEC is not a cartel and Saudi Arabia acts as a dominant producer in the world oil market. The intention here is to see whether the Target Revenue (TR) model provides an explanation for the behavior of some OPEC members that do not coordinate production with Saudi Arabia. We investigate whether production cuts or increases by OPEC and non-OPEC members are based on their investment or budgetary needs. By retesting the TR model, we show that investment ami budgetary needs do not affect the production of oil in free-market economies (OPEC and non-OPEC), but they do affect production decisions of the more centrally-planned, isolated and oil-dependent economies. Existing studies in the literature have conceptual and statistical limitations that justify retesting the model. This study is the first to investigate the TR model in a separate study and to compare the results of static and dynamic models. It is also the first to examine the relationship between the degree of economic freedom and the Target Revenue model and to note the TR model is stable when used for countries that are price takers.
A Note on Vertical Integration and Stock Ratings of Oil Companies in the U.S.
Authors: Edwards Kenneth , Jackson John D. , Thompson Henry L.
Published: May 2011

This note examines some evidence for a link between profitability of oil companies and operational vertical integration into pipelines and crude oil. An empirical specification is estimated using ordered probit. Levels of integration into pipeline and crude that maximize stock ratings are derived using recent oil company data. Integration into pipelines has a weak positive effect on the stock ratings of oil companies, and integration into crude oil has a stronger positive effect.
Model-Based Comparisons of Pool and Bilateral Markets for Electricity
Authors: Bower John , Bunn Derek W.
Published: May 2011

A variety of market mechanisms have been proposed and implemented around the world in order to create competitive electricity pools and exchanges. However, it is an open question whether pool-based daily auctions or continuous bilateral trading deliver different prices under conditions of market power. In this paper we present a computationally intensive simulation model of the wholesale electricity market in England and Wales to isolate and systematically test the potential impact of alternative trading arrangements on electricity prices. After eight years of trading under a pool-based system, proposals were initiated in 1998 to change the market in England and Wales to bilateral trading. This paper uses an agent-based simulation to evaluate two important aspects of that proposal. The results show that daily bidding with Pay SMP settlement, as in the original Pool day-ahead market, produces the lowest prices while hourly bidding with Pay Bid settlement, as proposed for the bilateral model, produces the highest prices.
The Risk of Early Retirement of U.S. Nuclear Power Plants under Electricity Deregulation and C02 Emission Reductions
Authors: Rothwell Geoffrey S.
Published: May 2011

During the next decade, most states in the USA will deregulate electricity generation. Nuclear power plants that were ordered and built in a regulated environment will continue to be regulated as nuclear facilities. However, under state deregulation the price they receive for their electricity will be set largely in non-regulated markets. This paper examines the competitiveness of the nuclear power industry with a probabilistic model to identify which nuclear power units face the highest risk of early retirement under deregulation. Projected outputs under both average-cost and marginal-cost pricing are compared with expected generation under continued rate-of-return regulation. Nuclear units at risk of early retirement are in regions with the lowest forecast prices or are old plants. But, if CO2 regulation targets an emission reduction to 9% below projected 2010 levels (projected to be 24% obove 1990 levels), there are only a few units at risk of early retirement after 2015.
"No Cost" Efforts to Reduce Carbon Emissions in the U.S.: An Economic Perspective
Authors: Sutherland Ronald J.
Published: May 2011

The 1999 Special Issue of The Energy Journal presents several articles that conclude the costs of the Kyoto Protocol would be very high for the U.S. if all the adjustments were domestic. However, a few studies conclude that the Kyoto target is achievable at a negligible cost and perhaps with a net benefit. This paper explains why a majority of studies conclude that the cost of reducing emissions is high while some studies conclude that the Kyoto target could be achieved at a low cost, if not for free. Most studies employ mainstream economic analysis to estimate the costs of achieving the Kyoto Protocol. In contrast, the "no cost" analyses use a unique methodology applied only to energy conservation and referred to here as the energy conservation paradigm. One conclusion is that the energy conservation paradigm is inconsistent with mainstream economics. The "no cost" conclusion used to support approval of the Kyoto Protocol is not supported by the basic principles of economics. The Climate Change Technology Initiative recommends tax credits to reduce carbon emissions. With the proposed tax credit of $1,100 per residential head pump, each tonne of carbon reduced from the more efficient heat pump would cost $510. With different input assumptions, higher and lower estimates are produced.
The Potential Market for Photovoltaics and Other Distributed Resources in Rural Electric Cooperatives
Authors: Hoff Thomas E. , Cheney Matthew
Published: May 2011

In the United States, rural electric cooperatives have an aging distribution system (1 million miles of distribution wires were originally installed over 40 years ago) and a load density that is about one-tenth of the load density at other utilities. The result is that there may soon be a large market opportunity for photovoltaics (PV) and other distributed resources. This paper calculates the cost of replacing portions of the distribution system as it wears out with hybrid-PV systems, compares it to the cost of replacing the system with equivalent distribution system equipment, and selects the alternative with the lowest cost. Results suggest that there is a potential market of500 MW to 950MWofPVat a price of $3, OOO/kW (a 50 percent reduction over PV prices in 2000) and a corresponding fossil-based generation market size of 280 MW to 555 MW at a price of $1, OOO/kW. The hybrid-PV systems could replace 7 percent to 16 percent of the miles of distribution system and could save co-ops $1.0 billion to $2.5 billion (present value).
An Analysis of Market Power Mitigation Strategies in Colorado's Electricity Industry
Authors: Quick David M. , Carey Janis M.
Published: May 2011

We apply an algorithm that optimizes the generation dispatch for a dominant firm to Colorado's electricity market and show that the dominant electricity generation firm can strategically congest transmission into the region to receive a maximum price over 50% of the time. When it does not get the maximum price, the dominant firm still receives an average markup more than 10% over the competitive price. We use this model to show how mitigation strategies such as enhancing the transmission grid, divesting the dominant firm's generation assets, and promoting entry into the generation market can lower prices in a wholesale electricity generation industry by limiting a dominant firm's market power.
The Kyoto Protocol, Emissions Trading and the CDM: An Analysis from Developing Countries Perspective
Authors: Painuly Jyoti P.
Published: May 2011

In this paper the Kyoto Protocol is analyzed from the perspective of developing countries. The literature on the Protocol's impact indicates that Annex B countries will benefit from an emissions trading regime and the benefit is highest when non-Annex B countries are also included in the trading system. The paper addresses the issue of allocation of gains to developing countries from the Clean Development Mechanism, when the CDM simulates emissions trading. It was found that gains to non-Annex B from participation in GHG mitigation might vary from $6 billion to $29 billion, about 7% and 20% respectively of the global gains in an emissions trading system. However, several institutional issues related to CDM design and implementation will have to be resolved before developing countries can optimize their gains. Indirect impacts of the Kyoto Protocol through trade, although expected to be significant, have not been included. To optimize their gains, non-Annex B countries need to actively participate in the design and implementation aspects of the CDM.
Analyzing California's Power Crisis
Authors: Faruqui Ahmad , Chao Hung-po , Niemeyer Vic , Piatt Jeremy , Stahlkopf Karl
Published: May 2011

California's power crisis has implications for power markets world wide, because of the severity and unpredictability of its impacts. This paper discusses the causes of the crisis and derives lessons for energy policy makers. The crisis was triggered by a fundamental imbalance between the growing demandfor power and stagnant power supply. California's market design greatly magnified the problem, by disconnecting the retail and wholesale markets for electricity, and by requiring the investor-owned utilities to buy their power on a spot market. Low hydro conditions, hot weather, and rising natural gas prices put the market over the edge. A major lesson that has been learned is to introduce demand elasticity in restructured market designs, and permit buyers of power to hedge against price volatility by engaging in forward contracts.
Lifting the Alaskan Oil Export Ban: An Intervention Analysis
Authors: Bausell Charles W. , Rusco Frank W. , Walls David W.
Published: May 2011

In this paper we examine the price effects on crude oils of removing the U.S. export ban on Alaskan North Slope crude oil in 1996. We estimate the long-run impact of removing the export ban through the use of a time series intervention analysis. The results indicate that Alaskan crude oil prices increased between $0.98 and $1.30 on the West Coast spot market relative to prices of comparable crude oils as a result of removing the export ban. However, we find no evidence that West Coast prices for refined oil products—regular unleaded gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel—increased as a result of lifting the ban.
Economic Indicators of Market Transformation: Energy Efficient Lighting and EPA's Green Lights
Authors: Horowitz Marvin J.
Published: May 2011

Using observed market quantities and prices of substitutable products, a methodology is developed to estimate economic indicators of market transformation for the energy efficient lighting market. Market transformation, an energy industry term referring to the ongoing development of self-sustaining markets for energy efficient products and services, is the goal of an increasing number of publicly-funded programs. Chief among these is the U.S. EPA's Green Lights and its successor Energy Star®. Using four decades of data related to fluorescent lighting ballasts, this study isolates product price effects and thereby permits the impacts of public programs to be distinguished from the typical workings of the market. The economic indicators are further used for deriving market volume estimates that are converted to energy savings and climate protection impacts. The findings reveal that Green Lights is responsible for annual savings in 2000 of over 5.6 million metric tons of carbon.
Climate Politics from Kyoto to Bonn: From Little to Nothing?
Authors: Böhringer Christoph
Published: May 2011

We investigate how the U.S. withdrawal from the Kyoto Protocol and the provisions of the Bonn climate policy conference on sink credits and emissions trading will change the economic and environmental impacts of the Protocol in its originalform. Based on simulations with a large-scale computable general equilibrium model, we find that the U.S. withdrawal and amendments of Bonn reduce the Kyoto Protocol’s impact to business-as-usual without binding emission constraints. U.S. compliance under the new Bonn provisions, on the other hand, would accommodate a substantial cut in global emissions at relatively small compliance costs for OECD countries.
The Economics of a Lost Deal: Kyoto - The Hague - Marrakesh
Authors: Jean-Charles Hourcade , Ghersi Frederic
Published: May 2011

This paper examines prospects for compromise between competing perspectives on four key climate change issues: costs, level of domestic action, environmental integrity, and developing world involvement. It focuses on the policy issues stemming from uncertainty about abatement costs. Based on extensive simulations of a model integration tool, SAP12 (Stochastic Assessment of Climate Policies, 12 models), the analysis considers options for fine-tuning the Kyoto Protocol, such as concrete ceilings or levies on carbon imports; "environmental restoration payments" to be made on excess emissions; and credits for sequestration activities in Annex B countries. It demonstrates that a restoration payment (implemented through a safety valve) emerges as a superior means of addressing the cost uncertainty issue. The paper concludes that had this approach been taken at the COP6 climate negotiations in The Hague, there would have been substantial room for compromise on payments of $35 to $100 per ton of carbon. Examining the Marrakesh (COP7) climate accord, it derives some lessons for attempts at completing Kyoto’s unfinished business or at moving on to a new framework.
Secondary Market and Futures Market for the Provision of Gas Pipeline Transportation Capacity
Authors: Raineri Ricardo B. , Kuflik Andres T.
Published: May 2011

The natural gas pipeline transportation industry has a long history of regulatory interventions limiting the market power of the pipeline owner. Most studies, however, focus on the static efficiency of the corresponding contract structures. For more realistic results, we consider transportation capacity as a durable good and analyze the dynamic efficiency of structures such as leasing and the selling of tradable rights with or without secondary markets and futures markets. Compared to a lease contract structure-where the pipeline owner controls the transportation capacity at all periods-the selling of tradable rights with a competitive secondary market dissipates the monopolist's market power and leads to higher social welfare. However, the monopolist's participation in the futures market can reduce welfare by providing him with a credible way to restrain production in future periods, thus restoring the market power he enjoyed in a lease situation.
Modeling and Forecasting the Demand for Electricity in New Zealand: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches
Authors: Fatai Koli , Oxley Les , Scrimgeour Frank G.
Published: May 2011

Models of energy demand in New Zealand have typically been based upon either a partial general equilibrium approach or constructed from spreadsheet models. The results created by such methods predict that electricity is forecast to be the fastest growing energy demanded by households and the industrial sectorfor the next two decades. Furthermore, aggregate electricity demand is forecast to grow at a constant rate for the next two decades. In this paper we attempt to model and forecast electricity demand using a number of recent econometn'c approaches including Engle-Granger’s Error Correction Model, Phillip and Hansen’s (1990) Fully Modified Least Squares, and the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach of Pesaran et al. (1996, 1998). We identify the model with the smallest forecasting error using a series offorecasting measures and conclude that the new ARDL approach of Pesaran et al, has better forecasting performance than the other approaches considered.
The Effect of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA) Regulation on Petroleum Product Prices, 1976-1981
Authors: Rogers Robert P.
Published: May 2011

Recent events have led to renewed interest in the petroleum industry. Over the years, the American government has imposed a number of regulatory regimes on this industry. One of the most interesting was the price regulation and product allocation system set in place by the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA) which lasted from 1976 until 1981. To determine the impact of this regime, supply and demand equations are used to derive a reduced form model to test whether the other-things-equal prices of petroleum products were significantly lower or higher during the EPCA period than during the comparatively unregulated 1980s. With some exceptions, the results indicate that the EPCA regulation system either raised prices or had no effect. These results should lead to caution on the part of policy-makers. Even the immediate goal of the policy, lowering prices, did not usually occur.