THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON ACHIEVING THE INFLATION TARGET OF MONETARY POLICY
Authors:   SESE “The Academy of Financial Management”, LYUBICH Oleksandr , Khokhych Dmytro ,   Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman
Published: May 2024

Introduction. With the transition to a new stage of global economic development, the period of low inflation is over. A new global perspective is emerging that aims to rethink the concerns of monetary authorities regarding macroeconomic and financial objectives. As a result, the new macroeconomic framework emphasizes, on the one hand, the importance of clear and appropriate regulation in combating global threats, and, on the other hand, the close link between monetary and financial stability. In this regard, the role of the central bank needs to be reconsidered in the light of its primary objective of ensuring price stability in conjunction with the goal of financial stability. Problem Statement. The use of pure and hybrid inflation targeting (hereinafter - IT) of monetary policy regimes generates academic discussions about the feasibility of including the exchange rate in the inflation target function to smooth exchange rate volatility in order to ensure price stability and economic growth in developed and emerging markets. The purpose is to examine the exchange rate volatility and its impact on achieving the inflation target under different IT regimes. Methods. The method of regression analysis to identify and quantify the relationship between exchange rate volatility and the effect of its subsequent transmission to inflation was used. Applying cluster analysis, a classification of inflation- targeting countries was carried out according to the applied exchange rate regime, which includes the analysis of two variables: the volatility of the national currency rate and the volatility of Central Bank interventions in the foreign exchange market. Results. The study of exchange rate volatility within the framework of stochastic monetary policy models finds theoretical evidence of the effectiveness of exchange rate management for inflation-targeting countries. Free floating of the exchange rate is characterized by minor interventions on the foreign exchange market combined with unlimited exchange rate fluctuations. A controlled exchange rate regime is the case when the exchange rate remains stable and interventions are volatile. In practice, exchange rate control is justified especially for emerging market countries, as their economies are usually characterized by less developed financial markets, which makes it difficult to hedge currency risks in a free-floating exchange rate environment and poses a threat to financial stability. High inflation in previous periods in emerging market economies complicates the task of achieving price stability. The width of the band takes into account the fact that by setting a wide interval for the target, the central bank makes it easier for itself to formally achieve the target. Significant fluctuations in the exchange rate can lead to fluctuations in the general price level due to the pass-through effect, making it more difficult to achieve the inflation target. According to the analysis, the coefficient on the IT variable is statistically significantly different from zero and positive. Thus, it can be assumed that the use of a hybrid IT monetary policy regime is associated with a higher probability of achieving the inflation target, even when controlling other factors. The marginal effect of switching to hybrid IT is approximately 0.27. Conclusions. Achieving the inflation target through the use of the IT regime is an important condition for macroeconomic stability for the inflation-targeting countries. Small impulses of inflation can turn into a significant permanent growth of inflation when the exchange rate is free to float. The effect of the exchange rate pass-through to prices has been reduced in countries that have switched to the hybrid IT. Since the effect of exchange rate pass-through in emerging markets is generally higher than in developed countries, the benefits of IT-based exchange rate management should be more significant for these economies. Prior to the full-scale war, the NBU used foreign exchange interventions as an auxiliary IT tool to smooth out exchange rate volatility. In times of war, there are certain regularities in the conduct of monetary policy. According to statistics, during the first military shock, the negative balance of foreign exchange interventions began to grow sharply. Given this course of events, the NBU was forced to abandon floating exchange rate IT and move to fixing the exchange rate. The introduction of a fixed exchange rate in such circumstances is a nominal anchor for expectations and an anti-inflationary tool. In such circumstances, the NBU's main operation is foreign exchange interventions to ensure the exchange rate stability. The gradual easing of currency restrictions and the transition to greater exchange rate flexibility preconditions for a gradual return to IT.