bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Uncertain Retirement and the Effects of Social Insurance on Savings, Wealth, and Welfare
Authors: Bruce Neil , Turnovsky Stephen J.
Published: September 2010

The authors construct a Blanchard-style overlapping generations model consisting of long-lived individuals who have uninsurable idiosyncratic risk resulting from uncertain retirement periods and medical costs in retirement. Without social insurance, such individuals must save for these eventualities. The authors examine the impact of pay-as-you-go social insurance policies (public pensions and medicare coverage) on individual and aggregate consumption, saving, and wealth levels as well as wealth distribution. They also derive expressions for optimal (Pareto improving) social insurance policies.
Long Run Macroeconomic Relations in the Global Economy
Authors: Dees Stephane , Holly Sean , Pesaran M. Hashem , Smith L. Vanessa
Published: September 2010

This paper presents tests of long run macroeconomic relations involving interest rates, equity, prices and exchange rates suggested by arbitrage in financial and goods markets. It uses the global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to test for long run restrictions in each country/region conditioning on the rest of the world. Bootstrapping is used to compute both the empirical distribution of the impulse responses and the log-likelihood ratio statistic for over-identifying restrictions. The paper also examines the speed with which adjustments to the long run relations take place via the persistence profiles. It finds strong evidence in favour of a long run version of uncovered interest parity and to a lesser extent the Fisher equation across a number of countries, but the test results for the purchasing power parity relation are much weaker. Also the transmission of shocks and subsequent adjustments in financial markets are much faster than those in goods markets.
Taking a DSGE Model to the Data Meaningfully
Authors: Juselius Katarina , Franchi Massimo
Published: September 2010

All economists say that they want to take their models to the data. But with incomplete and highly imperfect data, doing so is difficult and requires carefully matching the assumptions of the model with the statistical properties of the data. The cointegrated VAR (CVAR) offers a way of doing so. In this paper we outline a method for translating the assumptions underlying a DSGE model into a set of testable assumptions on a cointegrated VAR model and illustrate the ideas with the RBC model in Ireland (2004). Accounting for unit roots (near unit roots) in the model is shown to provide a powerful robustification of the statistical and economic inference about persistent and less persistent movements in the data. We propose that all basic assumptions underlying the theory model should be formulated as a set of testable hypotheses on the long-run structure of a CVAR model, a so called ‘theory consistent hypothetical scenario’. The advantage of such a scenario is that it forces us to formulatealltestable implications of the basic hypotheses underlying a theory model. We demonstrate that most assumptions underlying the DSGE model and, hence, the RBC model are rejected when properly tested. Leaving the RBC model aside, we then report a structured CVAR analysis that summarizes the main features of the data in terms of long-run relations and common stochastic trends. We argue that structuring the data in this way offers a number of ‘sophisticated’ stylized facts that a theory model should replicate in order to claim empirical relevance.
Some Flexible Parametric Models for Partially Adaptive Estimators of Econometric Models
Authors: Hansen Christian B. , McDonald James B. , Theodossiou Panayiotis
Published: September 2010

This paper provides a survey of three families of flexible parametric probability density functions (the skewed generalized t, the exponential generalized beta of the second kind, and the inverse hyperbolic sine distributions) which can be used in modeling a wide variety of econometric problems. A figure, which can facilitate model selection, summarizing the admissible combinations of skewness and kurtosis spanned by the three distributional families is included. Applications of these families to estimating regression models demonstrate that they may exhibit significant efficiency gains relative to conventional regression procedures, such as ordinary least squares estimation, when modeling non-normal errors with skewness and/or leptokurtosis, without suffering large efficiency losses when errors are normally distributed. A second example illustrates the application of flexible parametric density functions as conditional distributions in a GARCH formulation of the distribution of returns on the S&P500. The skewed generalized t can be an important model for econometric analysis.
Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model
Authors: Fair Ray C.
Published: September 2010

This paper uses a structurally estimated macroeconometric model, denoted the MC model, to evaluate inflation targeting in the United States. Various interest rate rules are tried with differing weights on inflation and output, and various optimal control problems are solved using differing weights on inflation and output targets. Price-level targeting is also considered. The results show that 1) there are output costs to inflation targeting, especially for price shocks, 2) price-level targeting is dominated by inflation targeting, 3) the estimated interest rate rule of the Fed (in Table 4) is consistent with the Fed placing equal weights on inflation and unemployment in a loss function, 4) the estimated interest rate rule does a fairly good job at lowering variability, and 5) considerable economic variability is left after the Fed has done its best. Overall, the results suggest that the Fed should continue to behave as it has in the past.
Do News Shocks Drive Business Cycles? Evidence from German Data
Authors: Haertel Thomas , Lucke Bernd
Published: September 2010

We study the Beaudry and Portier (2006)-hypothesis of delayed-technology diffusion and news-driven business cycles. For German data on TFP and stock prices we find qualitatively similar empirical evidence. Quantitatively, however, an impulse response analysis suggests that a substantial part of the total TFP response is immediate rather than delayed. We relate this to disembodied technological change and noisy data on TFP. Nevertheless, we confirm the technology interpretation of structural shocks by showing that they are Granger-causal for data on patents granted by the German patent agency. We also show that these shocks generate comovement of macro variables at business cycle horizons and account for a sizable share of the forecast error variance of these variables in the medium and long run.
Growing up to Financial Stability
Authors: Bordo Michael D.
Published: September 2010

This lecture revisits the evidence on the incidence and severity of different varieties of financial crises within the context of globalization then (pre-1914) and now (1980 to the present). I then discuss the determinants of emerging market crises from the perspective of the recent balance sheet approach. This approach puts at center stage the importance of financial development. I then peel the onion back further and consider the “deep” institutional determinants of financial development and their relationship to financial stability. I conclude by conjecturing about the ways countries learn from their financial crises to improve their institutions and grow up to financial stability.
Is Old Money Better than New? Duration and Monetary Regimes
Authors: Mihov Ilian , Rose Andrew K.
Published: September 2010

We compare the duration and performance of different monetary regimes, especially the contrast between countries those that fix exchange rates and those that target inflation. Inflation targeting is a more durable policy; no country has yet been forced to abandon an inflation target, while many have abandoned fixed exchange rates. Indeed, even though inflation targeting began only in 1990, the duration of inflation targeting regimes is at least as long as, or longer than all alternative monetary regimes for comparable countries. Regime duration also matters in monetary policy; older regimes are typically more successful than younger ones in achieving low inflation.
A Model of the IMF as a Coinsurance Arrangement
Authors: Chami Ralph , Sharma Sunil , Shim Ilhyock
Published: September 2010

The paper shows that an IMF-like coinsurance arrangement among countries can play a useful role in the global financial system. The operation of the coinsurance arrangement is examined under different loan contracts. It shows that, if the IMF’s objective is to safeguard its resources and be concerned about the welfare of the borrower, an ex ante loan contract is more likely to create the right incentives than an ex post loan contract. Such contracts highlight the need for precommitment to contend with the Samaritan’s dilemma and time inconsistency, and state-contingent repayment schemes to deal with King Lear’s dilemma.
Are All Measures of International Reserves Created Equal? An Empirical Comparison of International Reserve Ratios
Authors: Cheung Yin-Wong , Wong Clement Yuk-Pang
Published: September 2010

Using available annual data of 174 economies since 1957, we examine the similarities and differences of seven international reserve ratios. While individual international reserve ratios display substantial variations across economies, they are associated with an economy’s characteristics including geographic location, income level, stage of development, degree of indebtedness, and exchange rate regime. The association pattern varies across time and type of international reserve ratios. Interestingly, there is only limited evidence that Asian and non-Asian economies have significantly different international reserve hoarding behavior. Our results suggest that the inference about whether an economy is hoarding too many or too few international reserves depends on the choice of international reserve ratio. Further, different international reserve ratios exhibit different persistence profiles, but the evidence of dependence on structural characteristics is rather weak.
A Long-Run Structural Macroeconometric Model for Germany: An Empirical Note
Authors: Schneider Elena , Chen Pu , Frohn Joachim
Published: September 2010

To provide an modelling strategy with transparent and theoretically coherent foundation has been one of the targets of the paper by Garratt, Lee, Pesaran and Shin. They develop a core model for a small open economy based production technology, arbitrage conditions, flow identities and long-run solvency conditions. This leads to five long-run relations: the uncovered interest rate parity, the purchasing power parity, production function, trade balance and real money balance. Since the economic theory there is formulated generally but not restricted to the economy of UK for which their empirical model is implemented, we expect that this modelling strategy should be able to generate similar results for the data of other countries.

In this empirical note we apply the modelling strategy to German data to see in how far the economic theory formulated there can account for German data. We are able to identify five cointegration relations in a conditional vector error correction model and the overidentification restrictions of the five cointegration relations as, UIP, PPP, production function, trade balance and real money balance are not rejected by the data.
Real Exchange Rate Dynamics in Macedonia: Old Wisdoms and New Insights
Authors: Bogoev Jane , Terzijan Sultanija Bojceva , Égert Balázs , Petrovska Magdalena
Published: September 2010

The ambition of this paper is to analyse real exchange rate dynamics in Macedonia relying on a highly disaggregated dataset. We complement the indirect evidence reported in Loko and Tuladhar (2005) and we provide direct evidence on the irrelevance of the Balassa-Samuelson effect for overall inflation via service prices in the CPI. Furthermore, we estimate variants of the BEER model. We show that alternative econometric techniques and data definitions bear an impact on the robustness of the estimation results. Overall, productivity, government consumption and the openness variables were found to be fairly robust in terms of sign and size. An increase/decrease in the productivity variables is associated with an appreciation/depreciation of the real effective exchange rate. Given that the B-S effect admittedly has a very limited role to play through nontradable prices in the CPI, this relationship could be explained by the (inverse) quality effect proposed by Loko and Tuladhar and, possibly in addition to that, by the nontradable component of tradable prices.
What Do Micro Price Data Tell Us on the Validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?
Authors: Álvarez Luis J.
Published: September 2010

This paper surveys the current state of global empirical research on price setting behaviour at the firm level to evaluate the adequacy of pricing models used in the macro literature. To that end, it analyses the implications of 25 theoretical models (sticky information, menu costs, time dependent, costs of adjustment and customer anger models) in terms of their ability to match the key micro stylised facts. It is found that the explanatory power differs considerably across models and that many popular models are at odds with the main micro features, suggesting the need to further refine modelling strategies.
Science and Ideology in Economic, Political and Social Thought
Authors: Hillinger Claude
Published: September 2010

This paper has two sources: One is my own research in three broad areas: business cycles, economic measurement and social choice. In all of these fields I attempted to apply the basic precepts of the scientific method as it is understood in the natural sciences. I found that my effort at using natural science methods in economics was met with little understanding and often considerable hostility. I found economics to be driven less by common sense and empirical evidence, than by various ideologies that exhibited either a political or a methodological bias, or both. This brings me to the second source: Several books have appeared recently that describe in historical terms the ideological forces that have shaped either the direct areas in which I worked, or a broader background. These books taught me that the ideological forces in the social sciences are even stronger than I imagined on the basis of my own experiences.

The scientific method is the antipode to ideology. I feel that the scientific work that I have done on specific, long standing and fundamental problems in economics and political science have given me additional insights into the destructive role of ideology beyond the history of thought orientation of the works I will be discussing.
On the Explosive Nature of Hyper-Inflation Data
Authors: Nielsen Bent
Published: September 2010

Empirical analyses of Cagan’s money demand schedule for hyper-inflation have largely ignored the explosive nature of hyper-inflationary data. It is argued that this contributes to an (i) inability to model the data to the end of the hyper-inflation, and to (ii) discrepancies between “estimated” and “actual” inflation tax. Using data from the extreme Yugoslavian hyper-inflation it is shown that a linear analysis of levels of prices and money fails in addressing these issues even when the explosiveness is taken into account. The explanation is that log real money has random walk behaviour while the growth of log prices is explosive. A simple solution to these issues is found by replacing the conventional measure of inflation by the cost of holding money.
Testing the New Keynesian Model on U.S. and Euro Area Data
Authors: Juselius Mikael
Published: September 2010

I apply the Johansen and Swensen (1999, 2004) method of testing exact rational expectations within the cointegrated VAR (Vector Auto-Regressive) model, to testing the New Keynesian (NK) model. This method permits the testing of rational expectation systems, while allowing for non-stationary data. The NK-model is tested on quarterly U.S. and Euro area time series data. I find that the restrictions implied by the core equations of the NK-model are rejected regardless of sample periods or measures of real marginal costs. I also provide a tentative explanation of the results favored by previous researches.
Random Matrix Theory and Macro-Economic Time-Series: An Illustration Using the Evolution of Business Cycle Synchronisation, 1886–2006
Authors: Ormerod Paul
Published: September 2010

The aim of this paper is to show that random matrix theory (RMT) can be a useful addition to the economist’s tool-kit in the analysis of macro-economic time series data. A great deal of applied economic work relies upon empirical estimates of the correlation matrix. However due to the finite size of both the number of variables and the number of observations, a reliable determination of the correlation matrix may prove to be problematic. The structure of the correlation matrix may be dominated by noise rather than by true information. Random matrix theory was developed in physics to overcome this problem, and to enable true information in a matrix to be distinguished from noise. There is now a large literature in which it is applied successfully to financial markets and in particular to portfolio selection. The author illustrates the application of the technique to macro-economic time-series data. Specifically, the evolution of the convergence of the business cycle between the capitalist economies from the late 19th century to 2006. The results are not in sharp contrast with those in the literature obtained using approaches with which economists are more familiar. However, there are differences, which RMT enables us to clarify.
The Impact of Tax and Market Distortions on the Phillips Curve and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
Authors: Bokan Nikola , Hallett Andrew Hughes
Published: September 2010

Most people accept that structural and labour market reforms are needed in Europe. However few have been undertaken. The usual conjecture is that reforms are costly in economic performance and costly to finance. Blanchard and Giavazzi (2003) and Spector (2004) develop a general equilibrium model with imperfect competition to show the impact of labourorproduct market deregulation. We extend that model to combine these two types of reform, and then to include the effects of lowering tax distortions, the costs of financing these reforms and the conflict between long run gains and short run costs. Specifically, we use the model to explain the natural rate of unemployment and non-wage employment costs in order to show the impact of these reforms on the short and long run Phillips curve parameters. We find that structural reforms imply short run costs but long run gains; that the long run gains outweigh the short run costs; and that the financing of such reforms will be the main stumbling block. Likewise, we find an ambiguous effect on flattening the Phillips curve in the short run, but favourable effects on the natural rate in the long run. However the implications for welfare improvements and employment generation are quite distinct. Tax reforms are more effective for welfare gains, but market liberalisation is more valuable for generating employment.
Level, Slope, Curvature: Characterising the Yield Curve in a Cointegrated VAR Model
Authors: Giese Julia V.
Published: September 2010

Empirical evidence on the expectations hypothesis of the term structure is in-conclusive and its validity widely debated. Using a cointegrated VAR model of US treasury yields, this paper extends a common approach to test the theory. If, as we find, spreads between two yields are non-stationary, the expectations hypothesis fails. However, we present evidence thatdifferencesbetween two spreads are stationary. This suggests that the curvature of the yield curve may be a more meaningful indicator of expected future interest rates than the slope. Furthermore, we characterise level and slope by deriving the common trends inherent in the cointegrated VAR, and establish feedback patterns between them and the macroeconomy.
How Much Do Perceptions of Corruption Really Tell Us?
Authors: Abramo Claudio Weber
Published: September 2010

Regressions and tests performed on data from Transparency International Global Corruption Barometer (GCB) 2004 survey show that personal or household experience of bribery is not a good predictor of perceptions held about corruption among the general population. In contrast, perceptions about the effects of corruption correlate consistently among themselves. However, no consistent relationship between opinions about general effects and the assessments of the extent with which corruption affects the institutions where presumably corruption is materialized is found. Countries are sharply divided between those above and below the US$ 10,000 GDP per capita line in the relationships between variables concerning corruption. Among richer countries, opinions about institutions explain very well opinions concerning certain effects of corruption, while among poorer countries the explanatory power of institutions for the effects of corruption falls. Furthermore, tests for dependence applied between the variables in the sets of respondents for each of 60 countries also show that, for most of them, it is likely that experience does not explain perceptions. On the other hand, opinions tend to closely follow the trend of other opinions. Additionally, it is found that in the GCB opinions about general effects of corruption are strongly correlated with opinions about other issues. The correlation is so strong as to justify the hypothesis that it would suffice to measure the average opinion of the general public about human rights, violence etc. to accurately infer what would be the average opinion about least petty and grand corruption. The findings reported here challenge the value of perceptions of corruption as indications of the actual incidence of the phenomenon.
Inflation Targeting Is a Success, So Far: 100 Years of Evidence from Swedish Wage Contracts
Authors: Fregert Klas , Jonung Lars
Published: September 2010

We evaluate the Swedish inflation targeting regime adopted in 1993−1995 using a novel approach based on a unique data set on the characteristics of collective wage agreements between 1908 and 2008. We find that the inflation targeting regime of 1995−2008 stands out as an exceptionally stable policy regime as judged by the willingness of wage contract-makers to repeatedly commit to three-year non-indexed wage agreements. Inflation targeting gained instant credibility in the sense that the labor market organizations entered long-term wage agreements at the same time as this new regime was announced. Inflation targeting has thus reduced macroeconomic uncertainty compared to previous regimes adopted in Sweden, including the gold standard before and after World War I, the price level targeting of the 1930s, the Bretton Woods period of fixed exchange rates. As judged by the reactions of the labor market participants, inflation targeting in Sweden is a success―at least so far.

Published as Policy Paper
Game of Organizing International Cricket: Co-Existence of Country-Line and Club-Line Games
Authors: Das Satya P.
Published: September 2010

The paper presents an economic model of interaction between cricket boards, players and international club-line games sponsors like ICL or IPL. It attempts to capture the inherent conflict between such games and country-line games traditionally organized by cricket boards. It identifies the nature of various trade offs facing these ‘players’ in the game and examines the effects of market-size changes on the composition of players, the scale of country-line and club-line games and the welfare of players and cricket boards.
Bridging Economic Theory Models and the Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model
Authors: Møller Niels Framroze
Published: September 2010

Examples of simple economic theory models are analyzed as restrictions on the Cointegrated VAR (CVAR). This establishes a correspondence between basic economic concepts and the econometric concepts of the CVAR: The economic relations correspond to cointegrating vectors and exogeneity in the economic model is related to econometric concepts of exogeneity. The economic equilibrium corresponds to the so-called long-run value (Johansen 2005), the long-run impact matrix,C;captures the comparative statics and the exogenous variables are the common trends. The adjustment parameters of the CVAR are related to expectations formation, market clearing, nominal rigidities, etc. Finally, the general-partial equilibrium distinction is analyzed.
Monetary Policy and Swedish Unemployment Fluctuations
Authors: Alexius Annika , Holmlund Bertil
Published: September 2010

A widely spread belief among economists is that monetary policy has relatively short-lived effects on real variables such as unemployment. Previous studies indicate that monetary policy affects the output gap only at business cycle frequencies, but the effects on unemployment may well be more persistent in countries with highly regulated labor markets. We study the Swedish experience of unemployment and monetary policy. Using a structural VAR we find that around 30 percent of the fluctuations in unemployment are caused by shocks to monetary policy. The effects are also quite persistent. In the preferred model, almost 30 percent of the maximum effect of a shock still remains after ten years.
Uncover Latent PPP by Dynamic Factor Error Correction Model (DF-ECM) Approach: Evidence from Five OECD Countries
Authors: Qin Duo
Published: September 2010

This study explores a new modelling approach that bridges the gap between multilateral country-level data and the bilateral-model based, goods-market specific purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis. Under this approach, PPP is embedded in latent common factors, extractable from a large set of bilateral price disparities, and tested via an error-correction model where the factors act as error-correction leading indicators for exchange rate and inflation. Significant modelling results for five OECD countries using monthly data suggest that the extant finding of insignificant PPP using similar data should be due to errors-invariables attenuation and that its correction lies in effective construction of latent variables.
Modeling the Effects of Financial Constraints on Firm’s Investment
Authors: Tomat Gian Maria
Published: September 2010

The paper develops a model of firm´s investment under uncertainty with financial market imperfections and analyzes the effects of financial constraints on firm´s investment. Firm´s investment is an increasing function of the firm´s marginal q, however the investment function is characterized by an upper bound that depends on the firm´s borrowing capabilities. The firm´s marginal q is the sum of the expected value of the marginal profitability of the physical capital stock and of a positive external finance premium. In the presence of financial market imperfections the firm forms expectations about future financial conditions and these expectations raise the firm´s current marginal q. Similarly, the shadow price of firm´s debt is the sum of the interest cost of debt repayment and of a provision for external finance that depends on the firm´s expectations over future financial conditions.
Power-Law and Log-Normal Distributions in Temporal Changes of Firm-Size Variables
Authors: Ishikawa Atushi
Published: September 2010

In this paper the author shows that signed temporal changes of firm size variables follow the power-law for large changes; while, for middle changes a log-normal distribution is found. In the analyses, the author employed three databases: high-income data, high-sales data and positive-profits data of Japanese firms. It is particularly worth noting that the growth rate distributions in temporal changes of the firm size data have no wide tail, unlike the distributions observed in assets and sales of firms, the number of employees and personal income data. An Extended-Gibrat’s Law was also found in the growth rate distributions of temporal changes of firm size variables, which induces both the power-law and the log-normal distributions in the temporal changes of firm size under the Detailed Balance.
The “Credit-Cost Channel” of Monetary Policy. A Theoretical Assessment
Authors: Tamborini Roberto
Published: September 2010

Drawing on the modern literature on the monetary transmission mechanisms with capital market imperfections, this paper presents a model of the “credit-cost channel” of monetary policy. The thrust of the model is that firms’ reliance on bank loans (“credit channel”) may make aggregate supply sensitive to bank interest rates (“cost channel”), which are in turn driven by the official rate controlled by the central bank. The model is assessed theoretically by examining whether, and under what conditions, changes in the policy interest rate produce the whole pattern of the observed stylized effects of monetary policy, with no recourse to non-competitive hypotheses and frictions in the goods and labour markets. This result is obtained for parameter values in the range of available consensus estimates, with a caveat concerning labour-supply elasticity to the real wage rate.
Distribution of Labour Productivity in Japan over the Period 1996–2006
Authors: Souma Wataru , Ikeda Yuichi , Iyetomi Hiroshi , Fujiwara Yoshi
Published: September 2010

The distribution of labour productivity is investigated by analyzing the longitudinal micro-level data set which contains the detailed financial conditions of large numbers of Japanese companies over the period 1996–2006. The authors show that the distribution of labour productivity in both the high and low productivity ranges follows a power law distribution. The generalized beta function of the second kind, which asymptotically reproduces a power law function, is applied to explain the distribution of labour productivity. By comparing the power law exponents that characterize high and low productivity ranges, the authors show that for manufacturing industries, inequality in the low productivity range is larger than that in the high productivity range. For the manufacturing industries, the authors also clarify that the change of inequality in the low productivity range has strong correlation with GDP. In addition, by comparing the power law exponents of the high productivity range in the manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries, the authors show that the inequality of the non-manufacturing industry is higher than that of the manufacturing industry.
A Dynamic Probabilistic Version of the Aoki–Yoshikawa Sectoral Productivity Model
Authors: Scalas Enrico , Garibaldi Ubaldo
Published: September 2010

In this paper, the authors explore a dynamical version of the Aoki and Yoshikawa model (AYM) for an economy driven by demand. They show that when an appropriate Markovian dynamics is taken into account, the AYM has different equilibrium distributions depending on the form of transition probabilities. In the version of the dynamic AYM presented here, transition probabilities depend on a parameter c tuning the choice of a new sector for workers leaving their sector. The solution of Aoki and Yoshikawa is recovered only in the case c = 0. All the other possible cases give different equilibrium probability distributions, including the Bose–Einstein distribution.
Implicit Microfoundations for Macroeconomics
Authors: Wright Ian
Published: September 2010

A large market economy has a huge number of degrees of freedom with weak microlevel coordination. The ‘implicit microfoundations’ approach considers this property of micro-level interactions to more strongly determine macro-level outcomes compared to the precise details of individual choice behavior; that is, the ‘particle’ nature of individuals dominates their ‘mechanical’ nature. So rather than taking an ‘explicit microfoundations’ approach, in which individuals are represented as ‘white-box’ sources of fully-specified optimizing behavior (‘rational agents’), we instead represent individuals as ‘black box’ sources of unpredictable noise subject to objective constraints (‘zero-intelligence agents’). To illustrate the potential of the approach we examine a parsimonious, agent-based macroeconomic model with implicit microfoundations. It generates many of the reported empirical distributions of capitalist economies, including the distribution of income, firm sizes, firm growth, GDP and recessions.
Challenges Associated with the Expansion of Deposit Insurance Coverage during Fall 2008
Authors: Schich Sebastian
Published: September 2010

Government provision of a financial safety net for financial institutions has been a key element of the policy response to the current crisis, with governments extending existing guarantees and introducing new ones. These measures have been helpful in avoiding a further accelerated loss of confidence. But they are not costless. Like any guarantee, deposit insurance gives rise to moral hazard, especially if the coverage is unlimited. In the midst of a crisis, the immediate task is to restore confidence, and guarantees can be helpful in that respect. Nonetheless, to keep market discipline operational, it is important to specify when the extra insurance will end, and this timeline needs to be credible. To be able to establish such a timeline the root causes of the lack of confidence—that is the effects of troubled assets on financial firms’ health—need to be addressed effectively. On a more fundamental level, once a government has ventured down the road of guarantee expansion, there may be a general perception that a government guarantee will always be available during crisis situations. As a consequence, other elements of the financial safety net may need to be strengthened, including the prudential and supervisory framework.

Published as Policy Paper
A Model of Eco-Efficiency and Recycling
Authors: Cogoy Mario
Published: September 2010

This paper presents the model of an economy subject to the mass conservation principle. The economic system is related to the environment by a flow of virgin materials into the economy, and by the diffusion of waste into the environment. Eco-efficiency contributes to reducing material waste in all processes. Recycling can reduce the diffusion of waste by feeding it back into the economy. Human capital enhances productivity, eco-efficiency and the quality of all kinds of outputs. Recycling and human capital formation use productive factors and are rooted therefore, as all other activities, in the material basis of the economy. The paper studies an optimal material state of society.
Superstatistics of Labour Productivity in Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing Sectors
Authors: Aoyama Hideaki , Fujiwara Yoshi , Ikeda Yuichi , Iyetomi Hiroshi , Souma Wataru
Published: September 2010

Labour productivity distribution (dispersion) is studied within the framework of statistical physics and the result is compared with the outcome of the empirical analysis. Superstatistics is presented as a natural theoretical framework for the productivity distribution. The demand index κ is proposed within this framework as a new business index. Productivity analysis is made on the Japanese data covering small-to-medium to large firms from 1996 to 2006 and the power-law for both firms and workers is established. The demand index κ is evaluated in the manufacturing sector. A new discovery is reported for the nonmanufacturing (service) sector, which calls for an expansion of the superstatistics framework to include the negative temperature range.
Does Macroeconomics Need Microeconomic Foundations?
Authors: Da Silva Sergio
Published: September 2010

I argue that it is microeconomics that needs foundations, not macroeconomics. Preferences need to be built on biology, and, in particular, on neuroscience. In contrast, macroeconomics could benefit from rationalizations of aggregate economic phenomena by non-equilibrium statistical physics.
Siblings, Not Triplets: Social Preferences for Risk, Inequality and Time in Discounting Climate Change
Authors: Atkinson Giles , Dietz Simon , Helgeson Jennifer , Hepburn Cameron , Sælen Håkon
Published: September 2010

Arguments about the appropriate discount rate often start by assuming a Utilitarian social welfare function with isoelastic utility, in which the consumption discount rate is a function of the (constant) elasticity of marginal utility along with the (much discussed) utility discount rate. In this model, the elasticity of marginal utility simultaneously reflects preferences for intertemporal substitution, aversion to risk, and aversion to (spatial) inequality. While these three concepts are necessarily identical in the standard model, this need not be so: well-known models already enable risk to be separated from intertemporal substitution. Separating the three concepts might have important implications for the appropriate discount rate, and hence also for long-term policy. This paper investigates these issues in the context of climate-change economics, by surveying the attitudes of over 3000 people to risk, income inequality over space and income inequality over time. The results suggest that individuals do not see the three concepts as identical, and indeed that preferences over risk, inequality and time are only weakly correlated. As such, relying on empirical evidence of risk or inequality preferences may not necessarily be an appropriate guide to specifying the elasticity of intertemporal substitution.
On the Effects of Selective Below-Cost Pricing in a Vertical Differentiation Model
Authors: Colombo Stefano
Published: September 2010

We analyse the effects of predation in a vertical differentiation model, where the high-quality incumbent is able to price discriminate while the low-quality entrant sets a uniform price. The incumbent may act as a predator, that is, it may price below its marginal costs on a subset of consumers to induce the rival’s exit. We show that the entrant may adopt an aggressive attitude to make predation unprofitable for the incumbent. In this case predation does not occur and the equilibrium prices are lower than the equilibrium prices which would emerge in a contest of explicitly forbidden predation. Moreover, we show that when the incumbent may choose whether to price discriminate or not before the game starts, if the quality cost function is sufficiently convex, there always exists a parameter space on which the incumbent prefers to commit not to price discriminate.
Minority Voting and Public Project Provision
Authors: Gersbach Hans
Published: September 2010

The author proposes a two-round process called minority voting to allocate public projects in a polity. In the first round, a society decides by a simple majority decision whether to provide the public project. If the proposal in the first round is rejected, the process ends. Otherwise the process continues, but only the members of the minority keep agenda and voting rights for the second round, in which the financing scheme is determined. In the second round, the unanimity rule or the simple majority rule is applied. The author provides a first pass of relative welfare comparisons between minority voting and simple majority voting and outline the research program.
The Universal Shape of Economic Recession and Recovery after a Shock
Authors: Challet Damien , Solomon Sorin , Yaari Gur
Published: September 2010

We show that a simple and intuitive three-parameter equation fits remarkably well the evolution of the gross domestic product (GDP) in current and constant dollars of many countries during times of recession and recovery. We then argue that this equation is the response function of the economy to isolated shocks, hence that it can be used to detect large and small shocks, including those which do not lead to a recession; we also discuss its predictive power. Finally, a two-sector toy model of recession and recovery illustrates how the severity and length of recession depends on the dynamics of transfer rate between the growing and failing parts of the economy.
Structure and Temporal Change of the Credit Network between Banks and Large Firms in Japan
Authors: Fujiwara Yoshi , Aoyama Hideaki , Ikeda Yuichi , Iyetomi Hiroshi , Souma Wataru
Published: September 2010

We present a new approach to understanding credit relationships between commercial banks and quoted firms, and with this approach, examine the temporal change in the structure of the Japanese credit network from 1980 to 2005. At each year, the credit network is regarded as a weighted bipartite graph where edges correspond to the relationships and weights refer to the amounts of loans. Reduction in the supply of credit affects firms as debtor, and failure of a firm influences banks as creditor. To quantify the dependency and influence between banks and firms, we propose a set of scores of banks and firms, which can be calculated by solving an eigenvalue problem determined by the weight of the credit network. We found that a few largest eigenvalues and corresponding eigenvectors are significant by using a null hypothesis of random bipartite graphs, and that the scores can quantitatively describe the stability or fragility of the credit network during the 25 years.
Economists, Incentives, Judgment, and the European CVAR Approach to Macroeconometrics
Authors: Colander David
Published: September 2010

This paper argues that the DSGE approach to macroeconometrics is the dominant approach because it meets the institutional needs of the replicator dynamics of the profession, not because it is necessarily the best way to do macroeconometrics. It further argues that this “DSGE theory-first” approach is inconsistent with the historical approach that economists have advocated in the past and that the alternative European CVAR approach is much more consistent with economist’s historically used methodology, correctly understood. However, because the European CVAR approach requires explicit researcher judgment, it does not do well in the replicator dynamics of the profession. The paper concludes with the suggestion that there should be an increase in dialog between the two approaches.
Endogenous Technology Sharing in R&D Intensive Industries
Authors: Clark Derek J. , Sand Jan Yngve
Published: September 2010

This paper analyses endogenous formation of technology sharing coalitions with asymmetric firms. Coalition partners produce complementary technology advancements, although firms do not co-operate on R&D investment level or in the product market. The equilibrium coalition outcome is either between the two most efficient firms, or a coalition with all three firms. The two-firm coalition is the preferred outcome of a welfare maximising authority if ex ante marginal cost is sufficiently high, and the three-firm coalition is preferred otherwise. Furthermore, we show that the equilibrium outcomes result in the lowest total R&D investment of all possible outcomes. Aircraft engine manufacturing provides a case study, and indicates the importance of antitrust issues as an addition to the theory.
Monetary Ease: A Factor behind Financial Crises? Some Evidence from OECD Countries
Authors: Ahrend Rudiger
Published: September 2010

This paper addresses the question of whether and how easy monetary policy may lead to excesses in financial and real asset markets and ultimately result in financial dislocation. It presents evidence suggesting that periods when short-term interest rates were persistently and significantly below what Taylor rules would prescribe are correlated with increases in asset prices, especially as regards housing, though no systematic effects are identified on equity markets. Significant asset price increases, however, can also occur when interest rates are in line with Taylor rules, possibly associated with periods of financial deregulation and/or innovation. Finding also some support for a link of countries’ pre-crisis monetary stance with the extent to which their financial sectors were hit during the recent crisis, the paper argues that accommodating monetary policy over the period 2002–2005, probably in combination with rapid financial market innovation, would, in retrospect, seem to have been among the factors behind the run-up in asset prices and financial imbalances—the (partial) unwinding of which helped trigger the recent financial market crisis.
Global Governance: The G20 and a Global Green New Deal
Authors: Barbier Edward B.
Published: September 2010

As the world recovers from the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, the international community should promote a mix of policies to sustain this global recovery and create jobs through reducing carbon dependency, ecological degradation and poverty. Such a Global Green New Deal (GGND) requires a long-term commitment to implementing and coordinating “green investments” by the Group of 20 (G20), who should also adopt complementary pricing policies and foster international aid and other actions in support of the GGND. Developing economies should provide clean water and sanitation for the poor, create safety nets, invest in heath and education, and target energy and water poverty. Such a global strategy can revive economies, create jobs and improve the sustainability of world development.
Information Efficiency and Financial Stability
Authors: Caccioli Fabio , Marsili Matteo
Published: September 2010

The authors study a simple model of an asset market with informed and non-informed agents. In the absence of non-informed agents, the market becomes information efficient when the number of traders with different private information is large enough. Upon introducing non-informed agents, the authors find that the latter contribute significantly to the trading activity if and only if the market is (nearly) information efficient. This suggests that information efficiency might be a necessary condition for bubble phenomena—induced by the behavior of non-informed traders—or conversely that throwing some sands in the gears of financial markets may curb the occurrence of bubbles.
Statistical Theories of Income and Wealth Distribution
Authors: Chakrabarti Anindya S. , Chakrabarti Bikas K.
Published: September 2010

The distributions of income and wealth in countries across the world are found to possess some robust and stable features independent of the specific economic, social and political conditions of the countries. We discuss a few physics-inspired multi-agent dynamic models along with their microeconomic counterparts, that can produce the statistical features of the distributions observed in reality. A number of exact analytical methods and solutions are also provided.
Ex-Ante Regulation and Ex-Post Liability under Uncertainty and Irreversibility: Governing the Coexistence of GM Crops
Authors: Beckmann Volker , Soregaroli Claudio , Wesseler Justus
Published: September 2010

Ex-ante regulations and ex-post liabilities for using a new technology will induce additional costs for adopters. The standard model is advanced by including irreversibility and uncertainty and taking into account transaction costs of negotiating possible cost reductions. The case analysed is the coexistence policy for GM crops in the European Union. Results show, the design of the rules and regulations can provide strong incentives for regional agglomeration of GM and non-GM farmers.