Estimation of the number of simultaneous fires in settlements by seasons of the year
Authors:   All-Russian Research Institute of Fire Protection of EMERCOM of Russia, Poroshin Aleksandr Alekseevich , Kondashov Andrei Aleksandrovich ,   All-Russian Research Institute of Fire Protection of EMERCOM of Russia, Bobrinev Evgenii Vasilevich ,   All-Russian Research Institute of Fire Protection of EMERCOM of Russia, Udavtsova Elena Iurevna ,   All-Russian Research Institute of Fire Protection of EMERCOM of Russia
Published: December 2022

Introduction. Issues of further development of methods for determining the number of simultaneous fires in populated areas are discussed for the purpose of adjusting water consumption rates for outdoor fire extinguishing. For the period from 2019-2021, statistical data on fires were analyzed taking into account the months of the year, days of the week and time of day. A calculated dependence is proposed to determine the probability of simultaneous fires in a locality, taking into account the period of the year, as well as the values of the number of fires by day of the week and the period of the day. Using the proposed dependence, for each period of the year, calculations of the probability of simultaneous fires by gradations of population in a locality were carried out. The comparison of the calculated data obtained on the number of simultaneous fires with the indicators of body of laws SP 8.13130.2020 "Fire protection systems. Outdoor fire-fighting water supply. Fire safety requirements" (hereinafter – SP 8.13130.2020). Purpose and objectives. The purpose of the study is to study statistical data on fires in populated areas to determine the frequency of their occurrence at certain time intervals. The objective of the study is to develop a calculated dependence for determining the number of simultaneous fires by seasons and gradations of population in a locality. Methods. The methods of mathematical statistics are used in the research. Statistical data on fires for the period from 2019 to 2021 were used as the initial information for calculations. Results and discussion. A comparative comparison of the number of simultaneous fires by seasons of the year showed that their greatest values are recorded in the spring period of the year. The excess, in relation to other periods of the year (summer, autumn, winter) is more than 55 %. Taking into account population gradations, the normative values of the number of simultaneous fires given in SP 8.13130.2020 are significantly smaller than their calculated values. On average, for each period of the year, the normative values are less than the calculated ones by more than 50 %. Conclusions. The study of statistical data and the construction of calculated dependencies describing the probability of simultaneous fires taking into account the seasons of the year shows that there is a problem in a significant discrepancy between the normative values of the indicators given in SP 8.13130.2020 with the calculated values. Which requires a revision of the water consumption standards for outdoor fire-fighting water supply. Keywords: simultaneous fires, season, significance level, water consumption, outdoor fire-fighting water supply, population.