bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Private Sector Investment and Savings Behaviour: The Policy
Implications of Capital Account Disaggregation (The Distinguishedl
Lecture)
Authors: Fitzgerald E. V .K.
Published: August 2018

After a prolonged period of macroeconomic adjustment, lasting
at least a decade in most LDCs, much has been learned (and in many cases
re-learned) and a consensus reached about many key policy points, such
as the virtues of budgetary balance, the need for a strong real exchange
rate, and the requirement for microeconomic reforms if markets are to
work properly. To a considerable extent, moreover, there has been
success in closing current account deficits, reducing government
expenditure and moderating rates of inflation. Much of this logic is
reflected in the standard policy models employed by the Bank and the
Fund which I shall discuss today. However, to the extent that
macroeconomic adjustment is intended to lead on to renewed growth (and
eventually poverty alleviation) the debate is far less consensual. Two
main lines of critique have been directed at what can be called the
'Washington Consensus': The first suggests that macroeconomic adjustment
- as theorised and practised - has had negative effects in terms of
employment, income distribution and even the environment, particularly
because of the reduction in real wages and key public expenditures. The
second line of dissent from the standard model stresses the deleterious
effect of orthodox macroeconomic adjustment packages on output growth
itself, both through unnecessarily severe demand reductions on the one
hand, and excessive adjustments (upward) to real interest rates and
(downward) to public investment levels without taking into account the
domestic implications of external debt positions.
Poverty in Karachi: Incidence, Location, Characteristics, and
Upward Mobility
Authors: Altaf Mir Anjum , Ercelawn Aly , Bengali Kaiser , Raidm Abdul
Published: August 2018

The paper examines the incidence and spatial distribution of
poverty in Karachi, Pakistan. Based on a survey of 6000 households, it
locates the clusters of poverty and presents a profile of the poor in
the city. Just over one-third of the households in Karachi can be
classified as poor, based on an absolute poverty line derived from
standard consumption norms. Poverty is concentrated in six geographical
clusters, which account for 60 percent of the sample households but 90
percent of the very poor households. Analysis of residential movement is
used to derive some indirect evidence of socioeconomic mobility. This
suggests that, historically, the incidence of upward mobility amongst
the poor in Karachi, based partly on the acquisition of skills and
education, has been quite high. Poverty in Karachi has not been endemic
as a continuous influx of migrants at the bottom replaced those who
moved up the economic ladder. The little evidence of downward mobility
also identifies it as a more recent occurrence as compared to upward
mobility. Data on education show that generational inequalities in
educational attainments across different groups among the poor are not
being perpetuated over time. At the same time, an analysis of investment
in the education of children suggests some very tentative evidence of a
possible loss of faith in education as a mechanism for upward mobility.
Such indicative evidence is of considerable value given the absence of
panel data for most cities in developing countries.
A. S. Bhalla. Uneven Development in the Third World: A Study of
China and India. London: Macmillan, 1992. xix+353 pp.Hardbound.
£47.50.
Authors: Mahmood Mir Annice
Published: August 2018

The book reviews the development experience of two major
countries in Asia, India and China. India has followed a democratic
liberal course in politics, based on Westminster-style parliamentary
practices. However, its economic policy has tilted towards socialism,
with government control on the major sectors of the economy. China, on
the other hand, has evolved a political culture that is totalitarian in
nature; all political power is concentrated in the hands of the
Communist Party. Hence, economic decision-making was also centralised
until a few years ago when China began a process of economic
liberalisation. The book begins by defining what uneven development
signifies. Development strategies and their outcomes are used to
illustrate the phenomenon of uneven development. The author describes
three such strategies, namely, industrialisation, sectoral/regional
balance, and economic liberalisation. The effect of these strategies on
the growth of output, inequalities in income consumption, and class
inequalities in an intra-regional, inter-regional, and rural-urban
divide are specifically discussed for both India and China. Other topics
of interest that are dealt with in the book include technology policies
and access to health and education services. The latter two subjects, in
particular, are discussed in terms of class, regional background, and
rural-urban bias.
Subroto Roy and William E. James (editors). Foundations of
India's Political Economy: Towards an Agenda for the I 990s. New Delhi:
Sage Publications. 1992. 339 pp.Hardbound. Indian Rupees
275.00.
Authors: Haque Ziaul
Published: August 2018

India, with 800 million people, vast land resources,
heterogeneous linguistic, cultural, religious, and ethnic groups and
caste and class divisions, faces complex and formidable social,
economic, and political problems. After experimenting with a mixed and
controlled, 'socialist' economy for four decades since 1947, in which
the public sector played a predominant role, a new strategy of
liberalisation and deregulation is being formulated with the aim of
integrating Indian economy with the world market. This implies a
framework of a liberal market economy with less control and more
freedoms. The book under review is the outcome of a large
interdisciplinary research project initiated in 1986 and completed in
1990 by Indian and foreign scholars. Divided into the two main sections
of politics and economics, the book comprises ten independent but
interlinked essays/chapters which discuss some of the longterm
socio-economic problems facing India. The recent policy of
liberalisation, it is important to note, reflects the urgency and
relevance of some of the theses presented in this important book. The
removal of unnecessary internal controls, greater stress on the private
sector, curtailment of wasteful expenditures, depreciation of the Indian
rupee and its freefloating against foreign currencies, and other
economic reforms recommended are intended to enhance the comparative
advantage of the Indian economy and to make it more competitive in the
world market.
Gaps 1n the Employment Strategy of the National Manpower
Commission: An Alternative Strategy
Authors: Haq Israrul
Published: August 2018

The National Manpower Commission (1987-89) in order to meet
the unemployment situation envisages generation of an additional l.25
Million work opportunities annually. It envisages an employment target
within the macroeconomic framework of a growth rate in GNP at around 8
percent annually. The NMC recommendations were cast within the following
parameters. General StrategylParameters (a) Labour force is growing at
more than 3 percent annually (the NMC puts it at 3.3 percent)
alternatively more than one and a quarter million new people would be
entering the labour market every year during 1990s. (b) An annual real
G.N.P growth rate of about 8 percent on the present sectoral pattern
would be just about sufficient to meet the employment target. (c) The
direct employment creating policies can serve to top up the contribution
of overall economic growth and cannot be a substitute for it. (d) As a
medium term objective-an increase in the capital formation in the
economy from 18-19 to 23-24 percent would be necessary. (e) The
Commission believes that structural adjustment toward market resource
allocation is compatible with high employment policy. (1) Agriculture
should no longer be a passive absorber of the rural labourmajor
responsibility for labour absorption must shift to sectors other than
agriculture. (g) The. small-scale sector must be recognised as the
leading sector for employment generation-this recognition must be duly
reflected in credit policies and marketing facilities. However, the
employment promotion potentials of large industrial enterprises must
also be fully realised. Towards this end, it has identified following
seven industries: (i) Engineering; (ii) electronics; (iii) textile
specially ready made garments;
Employment Pattern and Extent of Under-utilisation of Manpower in
Rural Baran; Areas of Pakistan
Authors: Ghayur Sabur
Published: August 2018

The barani (rain-fed) region accounts for about a fifth of the
cultivated area in Pakistan. It has the potential to significantly
increase crop production levels. Similarly, considerable scope exists in
this area for the development of forests, fruit and vegetable gardening,
pasture and stock rearing. Most of the natural resources are also found
in this tract. Its hilly areas possess a vast potential for tourism.
Besides, significant opportunities exist for irrigation and
hydroelectric power generation. An optimum utilisation of all this
potential, obviously, is employmentgenerating and income-augmenting.
Despite all such realisations this region as a whole, unfortunately, is
identified as the least attended to area in terms of provision of
socio-physical infrastructure, other development programmes and, even,
research work. This led to a deterioration of the employment situation
in the barani region as a whole. A poor information base and analysis
thereof on employment and manpower related variables is also the
consequence of such a treatment to this area. I This paper, using the
data of a field survey, tries to fill, though partly, the vacuum on
employment and related variables in the rural barani region. An attempt
is made here to record and analyse the labour force participation rates,
employment pattern (main economic activities) and
unemployment/underemployment levels prevailing in the rural baran; areas
of the provinces of the Punjab and North-West Frontier Province
(NWFP).
Household Saving Behaviour in Pakistan
Authors: Slddlqui Rehana , Slddlqui Rizwana
Published: August 2018

Household saving, which is a part of national saving, is
expected to contribute to economic growth significantly. Its share in
the total national savings of Pakistan, during 1960-90, was about 83
percent, ( and in gross national product it varied between 6.6 percent
and 10 percent, in the early 1980s.2 This is a significantly high
proportion considering the meagre total national saving ratio in
Pakistan. The analysis of savings is a controversial issue. First. there
is no standard empirical definition of household savings. Should
consumer durables be considered a part of household saving? Should human
capital be considered a part of household saving? These are important
questions. Answers to these questions will be useful for the analysis of
consumer preferences and for public policy. The rationale for the
inclusion of consumer durables as a' part of household saving is that
they are like productive assets purchased in order to provide for a flow
of services. Similarly, human capital is expected to raise labour
productivity and its future income and consumption. The second issue is
the response of each component of saving to changes in economic and
demographic factors.3 For example, jewellery and assets may respond
differently to changes in economic and/or social conditions. Third,
since the theoretical literature defines saving as a residual there is
no standard functional form of the empirical saving function. In this
paper, we estimate different functional forms to analyse savings
behaviour in Pakistan.
Private Capital Outflow from Pakistan
Authors: Sarmad Khwaja
Published: August 2018

An important and often ignored aspect of Pakistan's economy
during the Seventies and the Eighties has been the high degree of
mobility of domestic private capital despite the prevalence of explicit
capital controls. In a foreign exchange constrained situation the
capital outflow arising frOm increasing private claims abroad can have
macroeconomic consequences leading to welfare loss through the reduction
of domestic real investment, foreign exchange availability and a
shrinking tax base, which result in the loss of potential growth. It is
important to have some estimate of 'capital flight' in order to uncover
the 'concealed' transactions in the balance of payments and to reveal
the actual behaviour of institutional agents, since a part of the
balance of payments difficulties are due to the deinand for foreign
assets by the private sector channelled through unrecorded transactions.
Because of their hidden nature these transactions have remained
unrecorded in the official economic accounts and are consequently
neglected. Thus, despite the importance of this phenomenon, often
identified as 'capital flight', there have been few attempts to
investigate the issue in Pakistan [with the exception of Khan and Haque
(1987)]. The main reason for this being the difficulty in identifying
'capital flight' within the recorded balance of payments.
Multinomial Logit Model of Occupational Choice: A Latent Variable
Approach
Authors: Shabbir Tayyeb
Published: August 2018

Economists and other social scientists have had a
long-standing interest in studying the different aspects of an
individual's occupational choice. An important issue in this regard is
an econometric analysis of the determinants of occupational choice. A
rather well-known example of such a work is Schmidt and Strauss (1975)
which uses a maximum likelihood procedure to estimate a multinomial
logit model (MNL) where occupational choice is determined by an
individual's education, experience, race and sex. Regarding the above
genre of models (as, in fact, in the parallel and closely related
literature on earnings functions), one is often interested in
ascertaining the unbiased marginal effect of education on the dependent
variable. Not only these estimates allow tests of the human capital
theory against alternative hypotheses, they also have important public
policy implications particularly for the developing countries which are
typically contemplating expansion of their educational sectors. However,
these estimates may become biased in the event that a relevant regressor
is left out of the specification. Particularly difficult problems arise
when such an excluded variable is a latent (or unobserved)
one.
Policy Imperatives: Stabilisation of Production and Price Swings
of Potato and Onion Crops in Pakistan
Authors: Rana Zakjr Hussain , Shafiq-Ur-Rehman Rao
Published: August 2018

Potatoes and onions are bracketed ",ith other minor crops, but
are consumed as a table food in almost every household. Thus both
commodities are listed as sensitive food items. Production instability
and erratic price behaviour of these crops adversely affect both
producers and consumers. This leads to excess supply/demand situation
with resultant price swings. These fluctuations are studied for the
period 1972 to 1990-91. The demand for potatoes and onions is highly
price inelastic (-0.07 and -.13 for potatoes) and (-0.10 and -0.17 for
onions) in rural and urban areas, respectively [Najmi (1991), p. 193J.
The year-to-year swings in supply coupled "ith an inelastic demand
causes wide fluctuations in prices. Given a change in price, the change
in quantity supplied is lagged and or distributed through time. Thus, a
one-time increase in price would result in observed increases in
quantity supplied over two or even more years. For both the crops,
higher prices lead growers to increase production in a following period,
which adversely affect prices and this in tum reduces acreage/production
in the subsequent years and so on.
A Macro Analysis of Time Change in the Distribution of
Land
Authors: Mahmood Moazam
Published: August 2018

This study is an attempt to extend the analysis of change in
the land distribution over time, to 1991. In an earlier study we have
shown a strong tendency towards increasing concentration of operated
area, between 1972 and 1980. This concentration was seen to be
engendered by a dynamic associated with the High Yielding Variety (HYV)
technology. This study attempts to examine whether the HYV dynamic has
continued to increase concentration of area over the decade of the 80s.
The recently concluded Agricultural Census of 1991, allows us to do
this. Our major result is that concentration of operated area has
increased further between 1980 and 1991. However, the long run nature of
concentration found here, points to another possible explanation. The
HYV dynamic may have been one initiating change in a series of price and
technology changes, leading to continual change in factor use in the
direction of concentration.
An Attempt to Measure Female Status in Pakistan and its Impact on
Reproductive Behaviour
Authors: Manzoor Khaleda
Published: August 2018

Growing concern about increase in female literacy and
improvement in their socio-economic conditions is an offshoot of the
growing awareness and concern about the population problem among
planners and policy-makers. The explosive rate of population growth is a
major obstacle to achieving a better quality of life for the majority of
the populace in Pakistan. An uplift in the status of females through
increased educational and employment opportunities lead to fertility
decline. Several studies have been conducted in past decades to study
the indicators of female status and its impact on fertility in Pakistan.
Female education has been conventionally considered as an indicator of
female status. There is a consensus in terms of the inverse relationship
between female education and fertility that education, even upto primary
level, does lead to fertility decline. Most population programmes in
developing countries advocate in favour offemale literacy. The impact of
female employment on fertility is however, not very clear in case of
Pakistan [Sathar (1989)]. The findings of her study indicate that
employment influenced fertility negatively in the case of women in
higher status and positively in the case of lower status occupations. In
the case of poorer women, the lack of a negative association between
employment and fertility may be due to the fact that these women already
had a large number of children before starting work.
A Macroeconomic Taxation Model for an Islamic Economy
Authors: Hussain Muhammad
Published: August 2018

Present day Islamic states are called for performing many
functions like the ones stated by Siddiqi (1986). He has given a long
list of functions, which are to be performed by the present day Islamic
states. He has classified them into the following three-broad
categories: 1. Functions permanently assigned by Shariah. 2. Functions
derived on the basis of ljtihadi for the present situation. 3.
FUllctions assigned to the state by the people through the process of
Shura (i.e. consultation). Performance of these functions is only
possible if enough resources are available to the present day Islamic
states. Under the circumstances the present writer is of the view that
for satisfying the revenue needs of the present day Islamic states,
there is no way out except to resort to new taxes in addition to the
traditional taxes. Some Muslim jurists of the medieval period of Islamic
history especially AIGhazali (1937) and AI-Shatibi (1914) have,
permitted that additional taxation can be resorted to if the needs,
particularly the defence needs, of the state require so. Some Fuqaha
[AI-Qardawi (1980)J have also laid down certain conditions for levying
of additional taxes. These conditions are briefly stated
below:
A Successful Population Policy: Potentials and Constraints
(Distinguishedl Lecture)
Authors: Hemmer Hans-Rimbert
Published: August 2018

The current rapid population growth in many developing
countries is the result of an historical process in the course of which
mortality rates have fallen significantly but birthrates have remained
constant or fallen only slightly. Whereas, in industrial countries, the
drop in mortality rates, triggered by improvements in nutrition and
progress in medicine and hygiene, was a reaction to economic
development, which ensured that despite the concomitant growth in
population no economic difficulties arose (the gross national product
(GNP) grew faster than the population so that per capita income (PCI)
continued to rise), the drop in mortality rates to be observed in
developing countries over the last 60 years has been the result of
exogenous influences: to a large degree the developing countries have
imported the advances made in industrial countries in the fields of
medicine and hygiene. Thus, the drop in mortality rates has not been the
product of economic development; rather, it has occurred in isolation
from it, thereby leading to a rise in population unaccompanied by
economic growth. Growth in GNP has not kept pace with population growth:
as a result, per capita income in many developing countries has
stagnated or fallen. Mortality rates in developing countries are still
higher than those in industrial countries, but the gap is closing
appreciably. Ultimately, this gap is not due to differences in medical
or hygienic know-how but to economic bottlenecks (e.g. malnutrition,
access to health services)
Agricultural Development and Environmental Protection: Some Key
Issues of Potential Relevance to Pakistan (The Distinguishedl
Lecture)
Authors: De Haen Hartwig
Published: August 2018

Pakistan has made noteworthy attempts to incorporate
environmental concerns into its policy and planning framework.
Environment legislation and the establishment of the Pakistan
Environment Protection Agency now date back more than a decade. In 1988
it was also one of the first developing countries to begin designing a
comprehensive national conservation strategy. Proposed investments and
adjustments to policy arising from the strategy are incorporated in the
Eighth Plan 1993-98; and continue to be debated in national fora [see
Amir, Chaudhri and Nasir (1992) for example]. Such actions reflect the
growing concerns on the wide range of environmental problems facing
Pakistan, the result of a still rapidly growing population (more than 3
percent per annum) confronting widespread natural resource degradation.
The main purpose of this paper, therefore, is not to underline the well
known need to take account of the environment in agricultural planning
and policy-making in Pakistan, but to raise some general issues
regarding the complementarities and trade-offs between maintaining
agricultural production growth on one hand and natural resource
conservation on the other.
Complementarity and Conflict among Population and other Policies:
Specifying an Economic-Demographic Model for a Developing Country (The
Distinguishedl Lecture)
Authors: Mariano Roberto S.
Published: August 2018

My talk today is based on a research project, housed at the
University of Pennsylvania, that we have undertaken for the UNFPA and
UNDESD. The project, with the same title as the draft material
distributed for this conference, is a collaborative effort among
Lawrence Klein, Fred Campano, Dominick Salvatore, and myself. The
principal issue in the project is the simultaneous interaction between
demographic and socio-economic variables in the development process of
an emerging economy. The main concrete objective is to construct an
operational econometric framework which establishes appropriate feedback
linkages between demographic and economic movements and allows
meaningful examination of conflicts and consistencies of population
policies with economic policies. This is essential in formulating
appropriate population and other policies and in evaluating their
effectiveness in promoting the demographic and socio-economic
developmental goals of society.
The Production and Consumption of Livestock Foods in Pakistan: A Look into the Future
Authors: Muhammad Akmal
Published: August 2018

The supply response functions for beef, mutton, poultry meat, eggs, and fresh milk are estimated using the polynomial price lag model, and that of fish meat production using the stock adjustment model. Both the production and domestic consumption of these foods are then projected over the period 1993-94 through 2004-05 using the estimated supply response functions and the existing estimates of demand parameters assuming trend growth of exogenous variables. In the case of mutton and fresh milk there is excess demand, while in the rest of the cases surplus production is predicted. A significant proportion of the anticipated excess demand for mutton and fresh milk can be eliminated by increasing the rate of credit supply to these sub-sectors.
Philip G. Pardey, Johannes Roseboom and Jock R. Anderson (eds).
Agricultural Research Policy: International Quantitative Perspectives.
Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. 1991. 462 pp.Price not
given.
Authors: Malik Sohail J.
Published: August 2018

Economic growth depends largely on growth in agriculture, and
agricultural growth is a function of research and development. There is
an increasing realisation that the welfare of mankind in the future will
hinge crucially on agricultural research policy. The book under review
is an edited collection of twelve chapters covering five major themes in
the area and is a follow-up volume to the agricultural research
indicator series of ISNAR (International Service for National
Agricultural Research) published in 1989. The five themes covered are
agricultural research in a policy context; measuring agricultural
research and economic development; private and public sector
agricultural research and emerging issues in the area of agricultural
research policy. The list of contributors to this volume reflects the
wide experience in the area of international agricultural research that
is distilled into the twelve chapters of the book. The international
perspective is considerably strengthened by the intimate knowledge of
the international agricultural research system with which all three
editors and a significant number of the contributors are or have been
associated either directly or indirectly.
Shorter Notices
Authors: Nayab Durr-e-
Published: August 2018

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The Determinants of Tax Buoyancy: An Experience from the
Developing Countries
Authors: Ahmed Qazi Masood
Published: August 2018

International comparison of fiscal efforts of developing
countries was a fascinating area of public finance in the 1960s and
1970s. The famous studies in this area were Harley (1965); Lotz and
Morss (1967); Raja (1971); Raja et al. (1975) and Roy (1979). Most of
these studies used ordinary least square (OLS) technique to estimate the
determinants of the total tax to GDP ratio and the most common exogenous
variables used by these studies were share of agriculture sector, share
of industrial sector, share of foreign trade and per capita income. Some
studies used the level of monetisation, somes used the. level of
education and other used the level of urbanisation as exogenous
variables in the estimation of tax potential of different developing
countries. The present study instead of exploring the determinants of
tax to GDP ratio attempts to explore the determinants of buoyancy of the
taxes i.e. the total taxes, direct taxes and indirect taxes. The
buoyancy of a tax measures the total response of tax revenue to change
in income. The scope of the study also includes the ranking of
developing countries on the basis of actual to predicted values of these
buoyancies. The study would have been more useful if the study could fmd
the determinants of the elasticity of these taxes, but due to
nonavailability of data on the discretionary measures for each tax this
was not feasible. The paper is organised as follows, Section I describes
the theoretical basis of the model, Section II gives methodology and
data collection, Section III gives results of the model and Section IV
summarises the main conclusions.
Safe Motherhood in South Asia: Current Status and Strategies for
Change
Authors: Sathar Zeba A. , Raza Bilquees
Published: August 2018

Women in South Asia comprise close to one third of the world's
female population. Not only is South Asia an extremely populous region
but population growth rates have been much higher than averages for
other developing countries. The implications of high population growth
rates are quite direct and severe for women, as they are the result of
high levels of fertility which have prevailed for some time in this
region. The stable and high levels of fertility along with falling
mortality have led to a youthful population structure where about 45
percent of the population is aged under 15. Since childbearing as well
as childrearing are almost the sole responsibility of women, these
figures reflect the burden of high fertility amongst South Asian women.
An average South Asian woman marries at a fairly young age, (even though
the region is exhibiting a distinct trend of rising age at marriage for
females) and starts bearing children soon after. Though fertility rates
have been declining in most of India and Bangladesh while they had
already reached quite low levels in Sri Lanka, other countries of the
region (mainly Nepal and Pakistan) have still to experience any dramatic
declines in fertility. In contrast with trends in the Latin American and
South East Asian region, increases in contraceptive use in South Asia
have not played as substantive a role in fertility declines as changing
marriage patterns, atleast so far. See Table 1 for recent figures on
fertility and contraceptive use among females of this region.
The Rationale of Development Anthropology
Authors: Mumtaz Soofia
Published: August 2018

The controversy between the 'academic' and 'applied'
parameters of anthropology, has divided the practitioners of
anthropology since the discipline became a university science in the
last decades of the ninteenth and early twentieth centuries.
Anthropology has primarily been concerned with the study of the nature,
content, and transformation of social phenomena in general. There is
hence, an obvious contradiction between the generality of the
subject-matter, and concern with scientific objectivity on the one hand;
and the biases inherent within the applicability of the parameters of
anthropology to concrete given situations, and the obligation to
compensate for the debt owed to the sources that make the study
possible, on the other.
Developing Labour Market Information System for Informal Sector
in Pakistan
Authors: Ghayur Sabur
Published: August 2018

The informal sector (IFS) is seen as having the potential to
adequately respond to the growing unemployment problem in Pakistan. Easy
access, and low skill and investment requirements of a variety of
activities in this sector correspond well with the stock and annual
additions to the labour force and the available financial resources.
This sector is still absorbing a large proportion of the labour force in
rural and urban areas. It is also contributing significantly towards
developing the skill base of the labour force.1 (see Annex Tables
I-III.) Bu~ the fact remains that its development is rather haphazard
with the result that the potential which this sector offers remains
poorly utilised. Firstly, adequate dis aggregated information on this l
sector is stilllackillg. This often results in the undertaking of
activities, but, without taking cognisance of market conditions and
availability of adequate consumer demand. A number of -such activities,
hence, face the risk of failure at the outset.. Secondly, there is a
lack of disaggregated information on the stock of the labour force and
annual additions to it, and also on employment patterns. This affects
support activities, if any, as adequate feedback is not forthcoming on
market con,ditions, new entrants into the labour market and the
unemployed. Availability of disaggregated information is necessary for
undertaking support and development activities for this
sector.
Trend Analysis of Relative Poverty in Pakistan (1984-85 -
1987-88)
Authors: Zaidi M. Asghar , De Vos Klaas
Published: August 2018

In this paper, we compare poverty statistics for Pakistan
based on data from the Household Income and Expenditure Surveys of
1984-85 and 1987-88, using a relative concept of poverty. After a brief
look at the quality of the surveys in use in Section II we recapitulate
the relative poverty concept in Section III. In Section IV we compare
the size and composition of the poor population in 1984-85 and 1987-88
by using relative poverty lines. In Section V we extend the analysis by
differentiating results across rural and urban areas and by taking into
account that the cost of living in rural areas may be lower than in
urban areas. Section VI presents a number of sensitivity analyses, and
Section VII concludes.
Are Government Budget Deficits Inflationary? Evidence from
Pakistan
Authors: Shabbir Tayyeb , Ahmed Ayaz
Published: August 2018

In academia as well as policy-making institutions, there has
been a long standing interest in analysing the phenomenon of inflation.
Amongst the possible determinants of inflation, budget deficits may be
one whose importance might have grown since the oil price hikes of
1973-74 and in 1979. For many a developing countries these increases in
oil price have been responsible for the massive current account deficits
as well as rapidly increasing domestic budget deficits of the last
decade or so. During the 1980s, the budget deficit for Pakistan also
grew rapidly reaching a record high of 8.6 percent of the G D P in
1987-88. Lately in the backdrop of the recent structural adjustment
programmes, there has been much interest in determining the optimal size
and the macro economic role of the budget deficits. However, despite its
growing importance, the effects of budget deficits are not well
understood.
Poor Women's Participation in Credit-based Self-employment: The Impact on their Empowerment, Fertility, Contraceptive Use, and Fertility Desire in Rural Bangladesh
Authors: Ruhul Amin
Published: August 2018

By analysing a 1992 national level household sample survey data collected from the female recipients of collateral-free loans of three relatively large rural development agencies in Bangladesh-GB, BRAC, and BRDB-the present study shows that the participation in income-generating projects by poor rural women had been associated with their increased level of contraceptive use, decreased level of fertility, elevated level of desire for no more children, and enhanced level of empowerment. Some of these effects were much higher than those of the corresponding levels for Bangladesh as a whole, indicating the possible additional effect of income-generating projects as well as the effects of their population-education components. The implications of these findings for an integrated development strategy m Bangladesh are discussed.
Reforming the Government's Role in Pakistan's Agriculture Sector
Authors: Rashid Faruqee  , Kevin Carey
Published: August 2018

This paper assesses the role of the government in Pakistan's agriculture sector and concludes that major reforms are needed. The government's role is grouped into two main areas: price and trade policy, and public institutions, services, and expenditures. First, the paper assesses the impact of the price and trade policy on incentives and the functioning of input markets. Agricultural incentives have been severely distorted by policy, both through direct effects on agricultural prices and indirect effects operating through the exchange rate. Although indirect effects from the exchange rate have been corrected, some indirect effects remain because of higher protection given to industry. Subsidies on the input side have created distortions in input markets, dissipating much of the subsidy and its intended benefit to small farmers. Second, the paper looks at the role of public institutions. These have proliferated into almost every area of agriculture, with very little benefit to the sector. The most notable failure has been in the area of research and extension. Public enterprises have crowded out the private sector in marketing and distribution, and the rationale for government presence in these areas is not clear. Hidden expenditure also has taken place through underpricing of water and electricity, making the continued provision of these inputs financially unsustainable. The paper concludes that the role of government in agriculture has had little beneficial impact for most farmers and, therefore, major reforms are needed in policy and institutions to help sectoral growth.
Trends in Female Employment at the Federal Government Level: A
Critical Appraisal of 1983–1989
Authors: Nazli Hina , Nazli Samina
Published: August 2018

This paper focuses on two aspects. First, it looks at the
trends in female employment at the federal level over a period of six
years, from 1983 to 1989, based on data from the Federal Government’s
Civil Servants Census Reports, using three years, 1983, 1986, 1989. The
second aspect of the paper is to highlight the fact that not all the
information that is collected is published gender-wise. This is very
important from the point of view of working women as it can also have
strong policy implications with regard to the advancement of women for
which the Government has set up a separate ministry. The ignorance of
the Ministry of Women’s Development about this aspect, that is, of
available unpublished information, is surprising. The paper is
structured as follows. After a brief discussion of data and methodology,
the results are presented in Section 2. Section 3 discusses the data
which are collected but not published at the disaggregate level which
has adverse implications for women employees at the policy level. The
conclusions and policy recommendations are presented in the final and
fourth section of this paper. The data used in this paper are taken from
the Government of Pakistan (1983, 1986, 1989). The statistics reported
in these reports are classified by service groups into Secretariat,
Attached Departments, Subordinate Offices, Other Offices, and in the
Autonomous/Semi-Autonomous bodies by Basic Pay Scale (BPS) and gender.
The Censuses show that for these years no female employee of the regular
civil service is reported in BPS-22 for all the categories, and also
none is reported in BPS 21 in 1989. Therefore, for this analysis, we
group the female employees as between BPS 16–20 instead of BPS
16–22.
Gender Differences in Child Health-care Practices: Evidence from
the Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, 1990-91
Authors: Mahmood Naushin , Mahmood Mir Annice
Published: August 2018

Among other factors, health care utilisation is important in
determining the health status and survival chances of children. The
patterns of childhood mortality, in general, indicate that deaths of
male children have consistently exceeded those of females, with a much
greater difference in the first month of birth (NNR). This has largely
been attributed to differences in the genetic and biological factors
between the sexes [Lopez and Ruzika (1983)]. The mortality level,
thereafter, is influenced more by the socio-economic, environmental, and
health care factors, indicating a mortality disadvantage for females in
some populations. It has therefore been postulated that gender-based
differences in health care practices partly explain the sex
differentials in child mortality in some countries of South Asia, where
healthseeking behaviour of parents discriminates against female children
[Chen, et al. (1981); Das Gupta (1987); Sathar (1987); Ahmed (1990)].
Using data from Bangladesh, Chen, Haq, and D’Souza (1981) found that
girls’ mortality risk was nearly 60 percent higher than that for boys
after the neonatal period, and that girl children suffered more
malnutrition and received lesser treatment for various infections. Das
Gupta (1987) and Muhuri and Preston (1991) also explained the excess
mortality of girls with a surviving elder sister in terms of conscious,
selective neglect of the second daughter. Waldron (1983) in her
extensive review of child mortality patterns in developing countries
concluded that besides relative contributions of specific causes of
death with different impact by sex, the variability in discrimination by
gender, primarily in nutrition and health care utilisation, also
contributes to excess female child mortality (1–4 age group).
Agricultural Input Subsidies in Pakistan: Nature and
Impact
Authors: Chaudhry M.Ghaffar , Sahibzada Shamim A.
Published: August 2018

Pakistan has a history of subsidising agricultural inputs.
Although none of the agricultural inputs were subsidised during the
early 1950s, the process was initiated in the second half of the decade
by subsidising chemical fertilisers in order to popularise their use
[Niaz (1984)]. The list of subsidised inputs and the rate structure of
the subsidies were expanded considerably throughout the Sixties. Towards
the end of the Sixties, it was noted that almost all the agricultural
inputs including fertilisers, insecticides, seeds, irrigation water,
tubewell installations, and the operation and purchase of tractors and
tractor-related equipment were subsidised in one form or another
[Aresvik (1967) and Kuhnen (1989)]. In the 1970s, some curtailment of
subsidies occurred as a result of input price increases which followed
the worldwide recession, a major oil shock, the credit crunch, the war
with India, and the consequent steep devaluation of Pakistani Rupee
[Chaudhry (1982)]. Although the subsidies had survived the onslaught of
the Seventies and tended to persist on most inputs, the government
became totally committed to their removal beginning with the 1980s,
under pressures from the IMF and the World Bank [Government of Pakistan
(1980)]. As a consequence, there was a total withdrawal of subsidy from
seeds, insecticides, tubewells, and tractors. A phased-out withdrawal of
fertiliser subsidy, culminating in 1984-85 in the case of nitrogenous
fertilisers and in 1989-90 in the case of phosphatic and potash
fertilisers, was also to be undertaken [World Bank (1986)].
Islam and Economics in Pakistan: Critical Perspectives
Authors: Haque Ziaul
Published: August 2018

The modern world characteristically stands divided into
developed and developing countries, or into core and peripheral
societies, which exist at different stages of development but in general
comprise a single global economy. The former dominate the latter in a
typical division of labour in which the economically rich countries of
the core areas specialise in the manufacture of industrial goods of high
technology, whereas the developing countries where the majority of
population depends on agriculture as livelihood specialise in the
production of mainly agricultural raw materials. Some semi-peripheral
countries mediate between these two categories in a complex web of
socio-economic relations, structures, and formations. [Wallerstein
(1979; 1984)]. Therefore, the economic problems of particular societies,
regions, and countries are now closely connected and even inextricably
intertwined. Developing countries like Pakistan have now been integrated
into this global economy.
Inaugural Address
Authors: Shahab-Ud-Din Makhdoom
Published: August 2018

It is with great pleasure that I inaugurate the Eleventh
Annual General Meeting of the Pakistan Society of Development
Economists. I have noted with satisfaction the contribution this Society
has made over the years to add to our knowledge about the importance of
development economics, and particularly in comprehending adequately the
multi-dimensional character of the development process and for framing
fruitful policies to accelerate the rate of economic development. Above
all, it has given an institutional shape to the meaningful dialogue
between professional economists and policy-makers. I am delighted to see
such a large number of distinguished economists from all over the world
participating in the Society’s deliberations. Only the best results can
be expected to come out of such objective discussions about some of the
highly topical economic issues of our time. I wish to extend my
appreciation to the Society for providing such an effective platform to
economists, demographers, and anthropologists.
Technical Change, Technical Efficiency, and Their Impact on Input Demand in the Agricultural and Manufacturing Sectors of Pakistan
Authors: Karamat Ali
Published: August 2018

Technical change has been considered as one of the most important determinants of economic growth. In developed economies, a proportionately higher percentage of GDP growth is attributable to technological progress and technical efficiency. However, technical change in developing countries is in its early stages and increased use of factor inputs is still the dominant source of economic growth. An attempt has been made in this paper to analyse technological progress and technical efficiency and their contribution to economic growth along with other factors of production by using more efficient methods in the manufacturing and agriculture sectors of Pakistan. There are a few studies on technological growth and technical efficiency change in Pakistan but they suffer from certain limitations. Most of them use the terms of technical change and productivity synonymously. Further, all of them use Hicks’s formula of neutral technical change and assume that technical change is happening at a constant rate. We have attempted to measure technical change, technical efficiency, and productivity in the form of the Hicks neutral technical change as well as in the form of variable and continuous and discrete technical change. Besides, this paper also analyses the impact of technical change on input demand (i.e., its impact on labour and capital demand) and examines the issue of technical change being either labour-saving or capital-saving. We found that technical change was taking place at a continuous and variable rate. The major contributor to the growth of output and value-added in both sectors was capital, contributing over 50 percent. Labour share was about 20 percent in the agriculture sector and about 10 percent in the manufacturing sector. Technical change share was very significant in manufacturing but not so in agriculture. The manufacturing sector in Pakistan has grown at an annual rate of about 6 percent during 1970s and at 8.7 percent during 1980s, and its share in GDP has increased from 16.5 percent to about 19 percent, but it has failed to generate new employment opportunities for the labour force. The employment growth rate is only about 2 percent.
Globalisation, Information Technology, and Economic
Development
Authors: Farhat Seema
Published: August 2018

The decrease in coordination and transaction costs on account
of information technology creates more opportunities for firms to make
production “footloose”; it allows firms to base different parts of their
business in different countries and connect them by real time
information networks. The rapid growth in information services is thus
facilitating the integrated international production of goods and
services. This paper discusses the linkages between information
technology and economic globalisation, and examines the reality of
developing countries in relation to the perceived benefits of
information technology and globalisation to these countries. Moreover
the issues involved in furthering the information technology effort in
Pakistan are also discussed in the paper. While the usefulness of
additional resources to further the establishment of an information
technology base in developing countries cannot be denied, the paper
argues that substantial headway can also be made with the existing
resources given a more considered approach to the problem. Basic to a
higher level of information technology involvement and interaction in
the economy is that policy-makers at the government and organisational
levels develop an understanding of the impact of technology in their
objective of improved economic welfare. The paper therefore discusses
the set of policies, short-term and long-term, needed to help draw the
country into the integrated international production system reflective
of the current trends of economic globalisation.