Modeling the impact of postal and courier services on the economic growth of EU countries
Authors: Fyliuk Halyna , Taranenko Oleksiy 
Published: January 2025

Introduction. The study of the economic environment of the EU arouses considerable interest not only among scientists, but also among a wide range of Ukrainian business representatives. This is explained both by the general trajectory of the Ukrainian economy in the direction of European integration, and by the special challenges and opportunities that have arisen in the conditions of the active phase of military aggression. An example of actively building a strategy for foreign economic development can be the company «Nova poshta», which is the leader of the postal and courier services sector in Ukraine at the time of the study, and has recently been making significant efforts to develop a foreign network of branches in EU countries. However, the successful implementation of this type of strategy requires an understanding of the trends and patterns that have developed in the target foreign markets, which already requires the use of appropriate scientific tools. One of such important regularities is the nature of the relationship between the economic activity of the company's business sphere and macroeconomic growth.
Goal. The goal is to verify, by means of econometric modeling, the hypothesis about the existence of a positive influence of the economic activity of logistics companies, in particular, postal and courier services, on the macroeconomic growth of the studied countries.
Methodology. To achieve the goal, the method of correlation analysis was used in the preliminary assessment of the relationship between the performance indicators of logistics companies and the macroeconomic growth of individual countries; tabular and graphic – for visual presentation of information and detection of statistically atypical values in the information base; regression analysis – for building panel regression models.
The results. According to the results of the correlation analysis, it was found that for the construction of a regression of the impact of postal and courier services on the macroeconomic growth of the EU countries it is advisable to use a one-factor model due to the high level of pairwise correlation of indicators that could be considered as independent variables of a multifactor model. The graphical analysis made it possible to identify and remove one statistically atypical value from the information base. The evaluation of the parameters of panel regression models of the influence of postal and courier services on the macroeconomic growth of EU countries (cross-sectional, with fixed and random effects) showed that, according to the criterion of the coefficient of determination, it is advisable to exclude the cross-sectional regression model in favor of models with fixed and random effects. To choose between the fixed and random effects model, the Hausman test was performed, which indicated the failure of the null hypothesis and the superiority of the fixed effects model. The positive value of the independent variable’ coefficient of the built one-factor model of the influence of the activity of the postal and courier services of EU countries and candidate countries on macroeconomic growth proved the validity of the main hypothesis of the study about the positive nature of such an influence. Prospects for further research are to find additional factors influencing GDP, in addition to activity indices of postal and courier services of EU countries and candidate countries, in order to build a multifactorial model with a higher coefficient of determination.