Measuring odds of various COVID-19 infection prevention & control measures among the contacts traced during trace test and quarantine activities at district Quetta (An un-matched case control study)
Authors: Arif Muhammad , Larik Ehsan , Saeed Abid , Abdullah Muhammad 
Published: July 2021

Background

The second wave of COVID-19 pandemic has started globally, right now globally 220 countries are infected and a total of 71351695 confirmed cases and 1612372 deaths due to COVID-19 has been reported so far1. As of today i.e. (16th Dec 2020) a total of 11430955 new COVID-19 confirmed cases have been reported across the south-east asia1. These cases are showing an increasing trend in all the Asian countries including Pakistan1. Across Pakistan till date 440787 new confirmed COVID-19 cases have been reported across the Pakistan showing a doubling time of 10.63 days (95% C.I 9.68-11.8), while a total of 8832 new deaths have been reported across the Pakistan making the double time for death as 11.11 days (95% C.I 4.04-14.86) 1. Till the development and availability of a vaccine the only tools that can help prevent the spread of COVID-19 are IPC measures violating them can result in a quick spread across the population3.

This study was conducted to assess the odds of various COVID-19 IPC measures among the Contacts of an index COVID-19 case traced by Provincial Disease Surveillance & Response unit Quetta.

Methodology

Sample Size & Sampling technique

Using the detailed epidemiological reports of 600 COVID-19 contacts identified during the trace test and quarantine field activities form 1st October till 30th October 2020 in district Quetta, from this data a sample of 300 individuals was selected for this study using Simple random sampling technique.

Study Design

Considering different exposure rates and pandemic situation an Un-matched Case control study study was conducted where Cases were defined as “Every PCR positive contact (Symptomatic or asymptomatic) for any index case” similarly Controls were defined as “Every PCR negative contact (Symptomatic or asymptomatic) for any index case who was home quarantined for 14 days based on suspicion by PDSRU team. A set ratio of 1:2 for cases & controls respectively was used for this study.

Results

The odds for various IPC measures like Knowingly and intentionally Contacted with a COVID-19 positive case, Family member of the index COVID-19 case, Knowingly and intentionally received an object handed over by a COVID-19 Positive case, Touched the same surface/surfaces after it was touched by the index case, Not doing regular Hand washing, Knowingly and intentionally did not follow the government SOPs of Social Distancing During encounter with a positive symptomatic case, Knowingly and intentionallydid not Follow the government SOPs of Social Distancing During sharing of bedroom and toilet with positive symptomatic case, used the same vehicle after it was used by the COVID-19 index case, Spoke with Positive COVID-19 index case for more than 15mins few days before catching the disease, Individual did not use a face mask during all of his contact episodes with the positive index case, Participating in gathering or social events were all found to be poorly followed by the PCR positive contacts.