Differential predictors for alcohol use in adolescents as a function of familial risk
Authors: Tschorn Mira , Lorenz Robert C. , O’Reilly Paul F. , Reichenberg Abraham , Banaschewski Tobias , Bokde Arun L. W. , Quinlan Erin B. , Desrivières Sylvane , Flor Herta , Grigis Antoine , Garavan Hugh , Gowland Penny , Ittermann Bernd , Martinot Jean-Luc , Artiges Eric , Nees Frauke , Papadopoulos Orfanos Dimitri , Poustka Luise , Millenet Sabina , Fröhner Juliane H. , Smolka Michael N. , Walter Henrik , Whelan Robert , Schumann Gunter , Heinz Andreas , Rapp Michael A. ,   IMAGEN Consortium, Robbins Trevor , Dalley Jeffrey , Subramaniam Naresh , Theobald David , Mann Karl , Bach Christiane , Struve Maren , Banaschewski Tobias , Flor Herta , Rietschel Marcella , Spanagel Rainer , Nees Frauke , Fauth-Bühler Mira , Millenet Sabina , Grimmer Yvonne , Poustka Luise , Lathrop Mark , Heinz Andreas , Albrecht Lisa , Ivanov Nikolay , Strache Nicole , Rapp Michael , Ströhle Andreas , Reuter Jan , Gallinat Jürgen , Walter Henrik , Gemmeke Isabel , Genauck Alexander , Parchetka Caroline , Weiß Katharina , Kruschwitz Johann , Raffaelli Bianca , Isci Alev , Daedelow Laura , Barbot Alexis , Thyreau Benjamin , Schwartz Yannick , Lalanne Christophe , Frouin Vincent , Orfanos Dimitri Papadopoulos , Grigis Antoine , Rogers John , Ireland James , Lanzerath Dirk , Feng Jianfeng , Martinot Jean-Luc , Bricaud Zuleima , Briand Fanny Gollier , LemaÎtre Hervé , Miranda Ruben , Artiges Eric , Massicotte Jessica , Martinot Marie-Laure Paillère , Vulser Helene , Pentillä Jani , Filippi Irina , Galinowski André , Bezivin Pauline , Schumann Gunter , Cattrell Anna , Jia Tianye , Desrivières Sylvane , Werts Helen , Topper Lauren , Reed Laurence , Andrew Chris , Mallik Catherine , Ruggeri Barbara , Nymberg Charlotte , Barker Gareth , Conrod Patricia J. , Smith Lindsay , Loth Eva , Havatzias Stephanie , Shekarrizi Sheyda , Kitson Emily , Robinson Alice , Hall Deborah , Rubino Chiara , Wright Hannah , Stueber Kerstin , Hanratty Eanna , Kennedy Eleanor , de Carvahlo Fabiana Mesquita , Stringaris Argyris , Robert Gabriel , Ing Alex , Macare Christine , Xu Bing , Yu Tao , Quinlan Erin Burke , Constant Patrick , Aydin Semiha , Brühl Ruediger , Ihlenfeld Albrecht , Walaszek Bernadeta , Ittermann Bernd , Smolka Michael , Hübner Thomas , Müller Kathrin , Ripke Stephan , Jurk Sarah , Mennigen Eva , Schmidt Dirk , Vetter Nora , Ziesch Veronika , Fröhner Juliane H. , Garavan Hugh , Bokde Arun L. W. , Whelan Robert , Carter Daniel , Walsh Emily , O’Driscoll Susanne , Agan Maria Leonora Fatimah , McMorrow Mairead , Nugent Sinead , Connolly Colm , Dooley Eoin , Cremen Clodagh , Jones Jennifer , O’Keefe John , O’Connor Martin , Poline Jean-Baptiste , Büchel Christian , Bromberg Uli , Fadai Tahmine , Yacubian Juliana , Schneider Sophia , Lobatchewa Maria , Lawrence Claire , Newman Craig , Head Kay , Heym Nadja , Gowland Penny , Stedman Alicia , Kaviani Mehri , Taplin Susannah , Stephens Dai , Paus Tomáš , Pausova Zdenka , Tahmasebi Amir 
Published: March 2021

Traditional models of future alcohol use in adolescents have used variable-centered approaches, predicting alcohol use from a set of variables across entire samples or populations. Following the proposition that predictive factors may vary in adolescents as a function of family history, we used a two-pronged approach by first defining clusters of familial risk, followed by prediction analyses within each cluster. Thus, for the first time in adolescents, we tested whether adolescents with a family history of drug abuse exhibit a set of predictors different from adolescents without a family history. We apply this approach to a genetic risk score and individual differences in personality, cognition, behavior (risk-taking and discounting) substance use behavior at age 14, life events, and functional brain imaging, to predict scores on the alcohol use disorders identification test (AUDIT) at age 14 and 16 in a sample of adolescents (N = 1659 at baseline, N = 1327 at follow-up) from the IMAGEN cohort, a longitudinal community-based cohort of adolescents. In the absence of familial risk (n = 616), individual differences in baseline drinking, personality measures (extraversion, negative thinking), discounting behaviors, life events, and ventral striatal activation during reward anticipation were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, while the overall model explained 22% of the variance in future AUDIT. In the presence of familial risk (n = 711), drinking behavior at age 14, personality measures (extraversion, impulsivity), behavioral risk-taking, and life events were significantly associated with future AUDIT scores, explaining 20.1% of the overall variance. Results suggest that individual differences in personality, cognition, life events, brain function, and drinking behavior contribute differentially to the prediction of future alcohol misuse. This approach may inform more individualized preventive interventions.