Soil and Water Assessment Tool model predictions of annual maximum pesticide concentrations in high vulnerability watersheds
Authors: Winchell Michael F , Peranginangin Natalia , Srinivasan Raghavan , Chen Wenlin 
Published: November 2017

Recent national regulatory assessments of potential pesticide exposure of threatened and endangered species in aquatic habitats have led to increased need for watershed-scale predictions of pesticide concentrations in flowing water bodies. This study was conducted to assess the ability of the uncalibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations in the flowing water bodies of highly vulnerable small- to medium-sized watersheds. The SWAT was applied to 27 watersheds, largely within the midwest corn belt of the United States, ranging from 20 to 386 km2, and evaluated using consistent input data sets and an uncalibrated parameterization approach. The watersheds were selected from the Atrazine Ecological Exposure Monitoring Program and the Heidelberg Tributary Loading Program, both of which contain high temporal resolution atrazine sampling data from watersheds with exceptionally high vulnerability to atrazine exposure. The model performance was assessed based upon predictions of annual maximum atrazine concentrations in 1-d and 60-d durations, predictions critical in pesticide-threatened and endangered species risk assessments when evaluating potential acute and chronic exposure to aquatic organisms. The simulation results showed that for nearly half of the watersheds simulated, the uncalibrated SWAT model was able to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations within a narrow range of uncertainty resulting from atrazine application timing patterns. An uncalibrated model's predictive performance is essential for the assessment of pesticide exposure in flowing water bodies, the majority of which have insufficient monitoring data for direct calibration, even in data-rich countries. In situations in which SWAT over- or underpredicted the annual maximum concentrations, the magnitude of the over- or underprediction was commonly less than a factor of 2, indicating that the model and uncalibrated parameterization approach provide a capable method for predicting the aquatic exposure required to support pesticide regulatory decision making. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:358–368. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC)

Key Points

Appropriately parameterized, uncalibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) models are able to accurately predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations in high vulnerability watersheds. Including pesticide use intensity data in model parameterization is a critical input required to achieve model predictions close to observations. Accounting for uncertainty in pesticide application timing improves model predictions of annual maximum concentrations. The SWAT-based predictions of annual maximum pesticide concentrations in flowing water bodies are closer to observed maximum pesticide concentrations than previously reported predictions based on current regulatory modeling methods.