Analysis of medical and economic efficiency of vaccine prevention of respiratory diseases among builders of the Amur Gas Processing Plant using expert assessments and methods of predictive modeling
Authors: Kolosov V. P. , Kurganova O. P. , Perelman J. M. , Polyanskaya E. V. , Manakov L. G. , Shibalov P. V. , Daraeva B. B. , Grebenyuk A. N. 
Published: September 2022

Introduction. Acute respiratory viral and pneumococcal infections, the incidence of which is associated with high economic costs, are one of the most important problems in epidemiology and pulmonology. Preventive vaccination is a tool for managing the incidence of acute respiratory viral infection (ARVI) and pneumococcal infections. The issues of medical and economic efficiency of preventive vaccination are constantly in the field of epidemiological surveillance, and the estimates obtained in this case are a necessary condition for making decisions on the viability of investing in its organization.Aim. Expert assessment and predictive modeling of the potential cost-effectiveness of vaccination with pneumococcal and influenza vaccines in immunocompetent adult patients with different levels of risk of acute and chronic respiratory diseases among the builders of the Amur Gas Processing Plant (GPP).Materials and methods. A complex of studies was carried out using the methods of statistics, epidemiological analysis and monitoring, comparative and economic analysis. Determination of the economic profitability of vaccination was carried out on the basis of methods of comparing “costs” and “benefits”. The surveyed cohort is represented by adults working on the construction of the Amur GPP (Svobodny, Amur Region). The main risk factors and inclusion criteria were the conditions of adverse effects of occupational, social and biological factors on human respiratory health. A set of preventive measures was carried out using methods and means of specific prevention of acute and chronic respiratory diseases: anti-influenza (Ultrix Quadri) and pneumococcal (Prevenar-13) vaccines. Efficacy analysis was carried out for 20-, 40- and 60-year-old patients with 1, 2 and 3 risk factors in accordance with the methods of its medical, social and economic evaluation. A retrospective determination of the cases of diseases (deaths) and economic damage prevented as a result of vaccination was carried out on the basis of the difference in morbidity (mortality) rates for the period preceding vaccination and for the period following vaccination. When constructing a predictive model for evaluating the effectiveness of vaccine prevention of respiratory infections, expert assessments, legal documents and the methodology of individual researchers were used.Results. The predicted incidence of pneumonia among the builders of the Amur GPP, taking into account all risk factors, can be 32.3‰. At the same time, the total volume of prevented predictive incidence of pneumonia in the post-vaccination period only with the use of pneumococcal vaccine can be 26.5‰, reducing the initial incidence rate by 5.5 times. As a result of the calculations and economic assessment, it was found that the total (direct and indirect) economic costs of the state and the plant (economic damage) with the incidence of community-acquired pneumonia in the working-age population (20-60 years) on the territory of this construction site is 112,811 rubles. per person per year. Consequently, the prevented economic damage among the employees and builders of the Amur GPP only as a result of the use of the pneumococcal vaccine “Prevenar-13” is 13,537,411 rubles. In addition, immunoprophylaxis with the use of influenza vaccines can reduce the incidence of influenza, ARVI, pneumonia and chronic forms of respiratory diseases, which corresponds to additional prevented economic damage to the plant in the amount of 103,786,764 rubles. Thus, the predicted total prevented economic damage for this plant as a result of vaccination may amount to 117,324,175 rubles.Conclusion. The results of the studies indicate that the implementation of the Program for the Prevention of Acute Respiratory Diseases by means of influenza and pneumococcal vaccines among the builders of the Amur GPP has a high level of medical and socio-economic efficiency, identified on the basis of its predictive modeling and expert assessments.