bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
On the generation mechanism of terminator times in subionospheric VLF/LF propagation and its possible application to seismogenic effects
Authors: Yoshida M. , Yamauchi T. , Horie T. , Hayakawa M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The signals from VLF/LF transmitters are known to propagate in the Earth-ionosphere waveguide, so that the subionospheric propagation characteristics are very sensitive to the condition of the lower ionosphere. We know that there appear the terminator times just around the sunrise and sunset in the diurnal variation of subionospheric VLF/LF signal (amplitude and phase). These terminator times are found to shift significantly just around an earthquake, which enables us to infer the change in the ionosphere during the earthquake. In this paper we try to understand the physical mechanism on the generation of those terminator times for relatively short propagation path (less than 2000 km) by means of wave-hop method. It is found that the lowering of the ionosphere boundary during an earthquake decreases the path length of the sky wave and this alters the interference condition of this wave with the ground wave, which lead to an appearance of terminator times as the destructive interference between the ground and sky waves. Finally, we suggest a possible use of terminator time shifts to investigate the lower ionospheric plasma changes during the earthquakes.
The pattern and magnitude of rotational piezomagnetic anomalies along the dip-slip Mosha fault, Northern Tehran, Iran
Authors: Mokhtari M. , Kiarasi S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Several active faults affect the Central Alborz, Northern Iran. The main active faults in the region are the North Tehran and the Mosha faults and their westward continuation, the Taleghan fault. Among these the Mosha fault is the most active fault in Central Alborz. The piezomagnetic field has been inspired by many investigations in the earthquake prediction studies and has been reported in the literature. Several theories proposed for relating piezomagnetic changes into magnetic signals accompanying earthquakes in the vicinity of a fault. In this study based on an analytical solution for the elementary piezomagnetic potentials due to an inclined rectangular fault within a semi-infinite elastic medium a computer program has been developed. This program has been used for evaluation of the rotational piezomagnetic changes along the Mosha fault using different earthquakes with specific magnitudes and at the presence of three different geomagnetic main fields. The magnetic data acquired recently at the study area has been used during the modeling. The first result that can be inferred from this study is that rotational piezomagnetic anomalies are completely localized at the fault tips. So for detection of this anomaly the magnetic instruments should be installed at these locations. The other important element which has been investigated was the amount of slip along the fault, which shows anomaly intensification by increase in the amount of slip.
General calibration methodology for a combined Horton-SCS infiltration scheme in flash flood modeling
Authors: Gabellani S. , Silvestro F. , Rudari R. , Boni G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Flood forecasting undergoes a constant evolution, becoming more and more demanding about the models used for hydrologic simulations. The advantages of developing distributed or semi-distributed models have currently been made clear. Now the importance of using continuous distributed modeling emerges. A proper schematization of the infiltration process is vital to these types of models. Many popular infiltration schemes, reliable and easy to implement, are too simplistic for the development of continuous hydrologic models. On the other hand, the unavailability of detailed and descriptive information on soil properties often limits the implementation of complete infiltration schemes. In this work, a combination between the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method (SCS-CN) and a method derived from Horton equation is proposed in order to overcome the inherent limits of the two schemes. The SCS-CN method is easily applicable on large areas, but has structural limitations. The Horton-like methods present parameters that, though measurable to a point, are difficult to achieve a reliable estimate at catchment scale. The objective of this work is to overcome these limits by proposing a calibration procedure which maintains the large applicability of the SCS-CN method as well as the continuous description of the infiltration process given by the Horton's equation suitably modified. The estimation of the parameters of the modified Horton method is carried out using a formal analogy with the SCS-CN method under specific conditions. Some applications, at catchment scale within a distributed model, are presented.
The BASE-Project – an open-source catalogue for earthquakes in Bavaria, Germany
Authors: Barnikel F. , Geiss E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The BASE-project collects all earthquakes which have been recorded in historical documents in Bavaria up to the installation of the first major seismograph in 1905. 27 crucial publications of the past two centuries have already been assessed and the reports, 1112 in total, have been filed in a data base. Included are not only all events which have been recorded for Bavaria itself, but also events which have been felt and recorded in Bavaria, but may have taken place in neighbouring countries. The data base will be published on the internet. In a second step public users of the data are encouraged to take part in the improvement and completion of the data base. This especially aims at local historians, librarians etc. who can contribute to the data base by adding information and data from local archives or documents, which would otherwise be virtually inaccessible for the public.
A meteo-hydrological prediction system based on a multi-model approach for precipitation forecasting
Authors: Davolio S. , Miglietta M. M. , Diomede T. , Marsigli C. , Morgillo A. , Moscatello A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The precipitation forecasted by a numerical weather prediction model, even at high resolution, suffers from errors which can be considerable at the scales of interest for hydrological purposes. In the present study, a fraction of the uncertainty related to meteorological prediction is taken into account by implementing a multi-model forecasting approach, aimed at providing multiple precipitation scenarios driving the same hydrological model. Therefore, the estimation of that uncertainty associated with the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), conveyed by the multi-model ensemble, can be exploited by the hydrological model, propagating the error into the hydrological forecast. The proposed meteo-hydrological forecasting system is implemented and tested in a real-time configuration for several episodes of intense precipitation affecting the Reno river basin, a medium-sized basin located in northern Italy (Apennines). These episodes are associated with flood events of different intensity and are representative of different meteorological configurations responsible for severe weather affecting northern Apennines. The simulation results show that the coupled system is promising in the prediction of discharge peaks (both in terms of amount and timing) for warning purposes. The ensemble hydrological forecasts provide a range of possible flood scenarios that proved to be useful for the support of civil protection authorities in their decision.
Use of the event tree to assess the risk reduction obtained from rockfall protection devices
Authors: Peila D. , Guardini C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The paper presents and discusses a procedure for the evaluation of the collective risk that can affect a road subjected to rockfalls, with and without protection measures, by means of the event tree analysis. This tool is useful to show designers whether the rockfall protection structures are located in the correct positions, whether they are the correct technological choice and what level of reduction of risk can be obtained. Different design options can therefore be compared on the same bases.
Verification of operational Quantitative Discharge Forecast (QDF) for a regional warning system – the AMPHORE case studies in the upper Po River
Authors: Rabuffetti D. , Ravazzani G. , Corbari C. , Mancini M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In recent years, the interest in the prediction and prevention of natural hazards related to hydrometeorological events has grown due to the increased frequency of extreme rainstorms. Several research projects have been developed to test hydrometeorological models for real-time flood forecasting. However, flood forecasting systems are still not widespread in operational context. Real-world examples are mainly dedicated to the use of flood routing model, best suited for large river basins. For small basins, it is necessary to take advantage of the lag time between the onset of a rainstorm and the beginning of the hydrograph rise, with the use of rainfall-runoff transformation models. Nevertheless, when the lag time is very short, a rainfall predictor is required, as a result, meteorological models are often coupled with hydrological simulation. While this chaining allows floods to be forecasted on small catchments with response times ranging from 6 to 12 h it, however, causes new problems for the reliability of Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) and also creates additional accuracy problems for space and time scales. The aim of this work is to evaluate the degree to which uncertain QPF affects the reliability of the whole hydro-meteorological alert system for small catchments. For this purpose, a distributed hydrological model (FEST-WB) was developed and analysed in operational setting experiments, i.e. the hydrological model was forced with rain observation until the time of forecast and with the QPF for the successive period, as is usual in real-time procedures. Analysis focuses on the AMPHORE case studies in Piemonte in November 2002.
Numerical analysis of an intense rainstorm occurred in southern Italy
Authors: Federico S. , Avolio E. , Bellecci C. , Lavagnini A. , Colacino M. , Walko R. L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this study we conduct a numerical analysis of an intense and destructive storm that occurred over Calabria, southern Italy, on 10–12 December 2003. More than 250 mm of precipitation was recorded over a large area in southern Calabria and one station reported about 660 mm in two days (more than half of the yearly climatological value). Precipitation fell mainly during 11 and 12 December. The storm was characterized by the entrance of an Atlantic upper-level trough associated with a deep surface low that advected humid marine air toward steep Calabrian orography. The steep mountain ridges favoured landslides, which were reported in several villages. Property damage was extensive. We study the storm at the mesoscale by means of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). The model was successful at representing the observed accumulated rainfall patterns. This justifies our use of RAMS for further analysis of the physical and dynamic factors involved in the storm event. In particular, we use RAMS to evaluate the roles of Calabrian orography, surface latent heat flux, and upper level forcing. The key role of a potential vorticity (PV) streamer, which forced the entire meteorological system from the upper levels is assessed by the PV inversion technique in a Limited Area Model Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS) framework. Results show that the roles of Calabrian orography and surface latent heat flux are important in our simulations. Indeed, humid marine air masses were advected by the synoptic flow toward Calabrian steep coastal mountain ranges determining intense and abundant rainfall.
Kinematic landslide monitoring with Kalman filtering
Authors: Acar M. , Ozludemir M. T. , Erol S. , Celik R. N. , Ayan T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Landslides are serious geologic disasters that threat human life and property in every country. In addition, landslides are one of the most important natural phenomena, which directly or indirectly affect countries' economy. Turkey is also the country that is under the threat of landslides. Landslides frequently occur in all of the Black Sea region as well as in many parts of Marmara, East Anatolia, and Mediterranean regions. Since these landslides resulted in destruction, they are ranked as the second important natural phenomenon that comes after earthquake in Turkey. In recent years several landslides happened after heavy rains and the resulting floods. This makes the landslide monitoring and mitigation techniques an important study subject for the related professional disciplines in Turkey. The investigations on surface deformations are conducted to define the boundaries of the landslide, size, level of activity and direction(s) of the movement, and to determine individual moving blocks of the main slide. This study focuses on the use of a kinematic deformation analysis based on Kalman Filtering at a landslide area near Istanbul. Kinematic deformation analysis has been applied in a landslide area, which is located to the north of Istanbul city. Positional data were collected using GPS technique. As part of the study, conventional static deformation analysis methodology has also been applied on the same data. The results and comparisons are discussed in this paper.
Adapting water allocation management to drought scenarios
Authors: Giacomelli P. , Rossetti A. , Brambilla M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Climate change dynamics have significant consequences on water resources on a watershed scale. With water becoming scarcer and susceptible to variation, the planning and reallocation decisions in watershed management need to be reviewed. This research focuses on an in-depth understanding of the current allocation balance of water resources among competitors, placed along the course of the Adda River. In particular, during the summer period, the demand for water dramatically increases. This is due to the increase in irrigation activities in the lower part of the basin and to the highest peaks of tourist inflow, in the Como Lake and Valtellina areas. Moreover, during these months, the hydroelectric reservoirs in the upper part of the Adda River basin (the Valtellina) retain most of the volume of water coming from the snow and glacier melt. The existing allocation problem among these different competing users is exacerbated by the decreasing water supplies. The summer of 2003 testified the rise in a number of allocation problems and situations of water scarcity that brought about environmental and economical consequences. The RICLIC project is committed to the understanding of water dynamics on a regional scale, to quantify the volumes involved and offer local communities an instrument to improve a sustainable water management system, within uncertain climate change scenarios.
Automatic estimation of optimal autoregressive filters for the analysis of volcanic seismic activity
Authors: Lesage P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Long-period (LP) events observed on volcanoes provide important information for volcano monitoring and for studying the physical processes in magmatic and hydrothermal systems. Of all the methods used to analyse this kind of seismicity, autoregressive (AR) modelling is particularly valuable, as it produces precise estimations of the frequencies and quality factors of the spectral peaks that are generated by resonance effects at seismic sources and, via deconvolution of the observed record, it allows the excitation function of the resonator to be determined. However, with AR modelling methods it is difficult to determine the order of the AR filter that will yield the best model of the signal. This note presents an algorithm to overcome this problem, together with some examples of applications. The approach described uses the kurtosis (fourth order cumulant) of the deconvolved signal to provide an objective criterion for selecting the filter order. This approach allows the partial automation of the AR analysis and thus provides interesting possibilities for improving volcano monitoring methods.
Investigation and hazard assessment of the 2003 and 2007 Staircase Falls rock falls, Yosemite National Park, California, USA
Authors: Wieczorek G. F. , Stock G. M. , Reichenbach P. , Snyder J. B. , Borchers J. W. , Godt J. W.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Since 1857 more than 600 rock falls, rock slides, debris slides, and debris flows have been documented in Yosemite National Park, with rock falls in Yosemite Valley representing the majority of the events. On 26 December 2003, a rock fall originating from west of Glacier Point sent approximately 200 m3 of rock debris down a series of joint-controlled ledges to the floor of Yosemite Valley. The debris impacted talus near the base of Staircase Falls, producing fragments of flying rock that struck occupied cabins in Curry Village. Several years later on 9 June 2007, and again on 26 July 2007, smaller rock falls originated from the same source area. The 26 December 2003 event coincided with a severe winter storm and was likely triggered by precipitation and/or frost wedging, but the 9 June and 26 July 2007 events lack recognizable triggering mechanisms. We investigated the geologic and hydrologic factors contributing to the Staircase Falls rock falls, including bedrock lithology, weathering, joint spacing and orientations, and hydrologic processes affecting slope stability. We improved upon previous geomorphic assessment of rock-fall hazards, based on a shadow angle approach, by using STONE, a three-dimensional rock-fall simulation computer program. STONE produced simulated rock-fall runout patterns similar to the mapped extent of the 2003 and 2007 events, allowing us to simulate potential future rock falls from the Staircase Falls detachment area. Observations of recent rock falls, mapping of rock debris, and simulations of rock fall runouts beneath the Staircase Falls detachment area suggest that rock-fall hazard zones extend farther downslope than the extent previously defined by mapped surface talus deposits.
Multi-point ground-based ULF magnetic field observations in Europe during seismic active periods in 2004 and 2005
Authors: Prattes G. , Schwingenschuh K. , Eichelberger H. U. , Magnes W. , Boudjada M. , Stachel M. , Vellante M. , Wesztergom V. , Nenovski P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We present the results of ground-based Ultra Low Frequency (ULF) magnetic field measurements observed from June to August 2004 during the Bovec earthquake on 12 July 2004. Further we give information about the seismic activity in the local observatory region for an extended time span 2004 and 2005. ULF magnetic field data are provided by the South European Geomagnetic Array (SEGMA) where the experience and heritage from the CHInese MAGnetometer (CHIMAG) fluxgate magnetometer comes to application. The intensities of the horizontal H and vertical Z magnetic field and the polarization ratio R of the vertical and horizontal magnetic field intensity are analyzed taking into consideration three SEGMA observatories located at different close distances and directions from the earthquake epicenter. We observed a significant increase of high polarization ratios during strong seismic activity at the observatory nearest to the Bovec earthquake epicenter. Apart from indirect ionospheric effects electromagnetic noise could be emitted in the lithosphere due to tectonic effects in the earthquake focus region causing anomalies of the vertical magnetic field intensity. Assuming that the measured vertical magnetic field intensities are of lithospheric origin, we roughly estimate the amplitude of electromagnetic noise in the Earths crust considering an average electrical conductivity of <σ>=10−3 S/m and a certain distance of the observatory to the earthquake epicenter.
Impacts of anthropogenic and environmental factors on the occurrence of shallow landslides in an alpine catchment (Urseren Valley, Switzerland)
Authors: Meusburger K. , Alewell C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Changes in climate and land use pose a risk to stability of alpine soils, but the direction and magnitude of the impact is still discussed controversially with respect to the various alpine regions. In this study, we explicitly consider the influence of dynamic human-induced changes on the occurrence of landslides in addition to natural factors. Our hypothesis was that if changes in land use and climate have a significant influence on the occurrence of landslides we would see a trend in the incidence of landslides over time. We chose the Urseren Valley in the Central Swiss Alps as investigation site because the valley is dramatically affected by landslides and the land use history is well documented. Maps of several environmental factors were used to analyse the spatial landslide pattern. In order to explain the causation of the temporal variation, time-series (45 years) of precipitation characteristics, cattle stocking and pasture maps were compared to a series of seven landslide investigation maps between 1959 and 2004. We found that the area affected by landslides increased by 92% from 1959 to 2004. Even though catchment characteristics like geology and slope largely explain the spatial variation in landslide susceptibility (68%), this cannot explain the temporal trend in landslide activity. The increase in stocking numbers and the increased intensity of torrential rain events had most likely an influence on landslide incidence. In addition, our data and interviews with farmers pointed to the importance of management practice.
Static stress changes due to the 1998 and 2004 Krn Mountain (Slovenia) earthquakes and implications for future seismicity
Authors: Ganas A. , Gosar A. , Drakatos G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper we examine the Coulomb (static) stress pattern following the two moderate magnitude earthquakes in NW Slovenia during 1998 and 2004. These earthquakes ruptured patches of the NW-SE striking Ravne fault that crosses the Krn Mountain. The objective is to investigate the seismicity patterns for this area of Slovenia given that future earthquakes may be triggered as a result of stress changes along neighbouring faults. Our findings include: a) stress levels have increased along the active Ravne fault for all models discussed b) stress levels have decreased along the active, NW-SE striking Idrija fault and c) stress levels throughout the crust have increased along the E-W direction but have decreased in the N-S direction (stress shadow effect). We also mapped a better correlation of the off-fault aftershock locations with stress maps incorporating the regional stress field.
A new computational method based on the minimum lithostatic deviation (MLD) principle to analyse slope stability in the frame of the 2-D limit-equilibrium theory
Authors: Tinti S. , Manucci A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The stability of a slope is studied by applying the principle of the minimum lithostatic deviation (MLD) to the limit-equilibrium method, that was introduced in a previous paper (Tinti and Manucci, 2006; hereafter quoted as TM2006). The principle states that the factor of safety F of a slope is the value that minimises the lithostatic deviation, that is defined as the ratio of the average inter-slice force to the average weight of the slice. In this paper we continue the work of TM2006 and propose a new computational method to solve the problem. The basic equations of equilibrium for a 2-D vertical cross section of the mass are deduced and then discretised, which results in cutting the cross section into vertical slices. The unknowns of the problem are functions (or vectors in the discrete system) associated with the internal forces acting on the slice, namely the horizontal force E and the vertical force X, with the internal torque A and with the pressure on the bottom surface of the slide P. All traditional limit-equilibrium methods make very constraining assumptions on the shape of X with the goal to find only one solution. In the light of the MLD, the strategy is wrong since it can be said that they find only one point in the searching space, which could provide a bad approximation to the MLD. The computational method we propose in the paper transforms the problem into a set of linear algebraic equations, that are in the form of a block matrix acting on a block vector, a form that is quite suitable to introduce constraints on the shape of X, but also alternatively on the shape of E or on the shape of X. We test the new formulation by applying it to the same cases treated in TM2006 where X was expanded in a three-term sine series. Further, we make different assumptions by taking a three-term cosine expansion corrected by the local weight for X, or for E or for A, and find the corresponding MLDs. In the illustrative applications given in this paper, we find that the safety factors associated with the MLD resulting from our computations may differ by some percent from the ones computed with the traditional limit-equilibrium methods.
Using stochastic space-time models to map extreme precipitation in southern Portugal
Authors: Costa A. C. , Durão R. , Pereira M. J. , Soares A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The topographic characteristics and spatial climatic diversity are significant in the South of continental Portugal where the rainfall regime is typically Mediterranean. Direct sequential cosimulation is proposed for mapping an extreme precipitation index in southern Portugal using elevation as auxiliary information. The analysed index (R5D) can be considered a flood indicator because it provides a measure of medium-term precipitation total. The methodology accounts for local data variability and incorporates space-time models that allow capturing long-term trends of extreme precipitation, and local changes in the relationship between elevation and extreme precipitation through time. Annual gridded datasets of the flood indicator are produced from 1940 to 1999 on 800 m×800 m grids by using the space-time relationship between elevation and the index. Uncertainty evaluations of the proposed scenarios are also produced for each year. The results indicate that the relationship between elevation and extreme precipitation varies locally and has decreased through time over the study region. In wetter years the flood indicator exhibits the highest values in mountainous regions of the South, while in drier years the spatial pattern of extreme precipitation has much less variability over the study region. The uncertainty of extreme precipitation estimates also varies in time and space, and in earlier decades is strongly dependent on the density of the monitoring stations network. The produced maps will be useful in regional and local studies related to climate change, desertification, land and water resources management, hydrological modelling, and flood mitigation planning.
Near-Real time analysis of seismic data of active volcanoes: Software implementations of time sequence data analysis
Authors: Vila J. , Ortiz R. , Tárraga M. , Macià R. , García A. , Kumar D. , Correig A. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper presents the development and applications of a software-based quality control system that monitors volcano activity in near-real time. On the premise that external seismic manifestations provide information directly related to the internal status of a volcano, here we analyzed variations in background seismic noise. By continuous analysis of variations in seismic waveforms, we detected clear indications of changes in the internal status. The application of this method to data recorded in Villarrica (Chile) and Tungurahua (Ecuador) volcanoes demonstrates that it is suitable to be used as a forecasting tool. A recent application of this developed software-based quality control to the real-time monitoring of Teide – Pico Viejo volcanic complex (Spain) anticipated external episodes of volcanic activity, thus corroborating the advantages and capacity of the methodology when implemented as an automatic real-time procedure.
Disturbances in VHF/UHF telemetry links as a possible effect of the 2003 Hokkaido Tokachi-oki earthquake
Authors: Nagamoto H. , Fukushima T. , Ida Y. , Matsudo Y. , Hayakawa M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The data on radio telemetry links (for water information) at VHF/UHF in Hokkaido are used to investigate the rate of disturbances on radio links (or connection failure) and its association with a huge earthquake, Tokachi-oki earthquake on 26 September 2003. Especially, the telemetry links at the Tokachi region closest to the earthquake epicenter, showed a significant increase in disturbances on radio links two weeks to a few days before the earthquake on the basis of analysis during a long interval from 1 June 2002 to 3 November 2007 (over 5 years). We suggest that these severe disturbances in VHF/UHF telemetry links are attributed to the generation of seismogenic VHF/UHF radio noises (emissions). Based on this idea, we have estimated that the intensity of these seismogenic emissions is on the order of 10–19 dB μV/m. Finally, the present result was compared with other physical parameters already obtained for this earthquake.
Estimating hurricane hazards using a GIS system
Authors: Taramelli A. , Melelli L. , Pasqui M. , Sorichetta A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper develops a GIS-based integrated approach to the Multi-Hazard model method, with reference to hurricanes. This approach has three components: data integration, hazard assessment and score calculation to estimate elements at risk such as affected area and affected population. First, spatial data integration issues within a GIS environment, such as geographical scales and data models, are addressed. Particularly, the integration of physical parameters and population data is achieved linking remotely sensed data with a high resolution population distribution in GIS. In order to assess the number of affected people, involving heterogeneous data sources, the selection of spatial analysis units is basic. Second, specific multi-hazard tasks, such as hazard behaviour simulation and elements at risk assessment, are composed in order to understand complex hazard and provide support for decision making. Finally, the paper concludes that the integrated approach herein presented can be used to assist emergency management of hurricane consequences, in theory and in practice.
Multiscale entropy analysis of electroseismic time series
Authors: Guzmán-Vargas L. , Ramírez-Rojas A. , Angulo-Brown F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this work we use the multiscale entropy method to analyse the variability of geo-electric time series monitored in two sites located in Mexico. In our analysis we consider a period of time from January 1995 to December 1995. We systematically calculate the sample entropy of electroseismic time series. Important differences in the entropy profile for several time scales are observed in records from the same station. In particular, a complex behaviour is observed in the vicinity of a M=7.4 EQ occurred on 14 September 1995. Besides, we also compare the changes in the entropy of the original data with their corresponding shuffled version.
Dendrogeomorphically derived slope response to decadal and centennial scale climate variability: Black Mesa, Arizona, USA
Authors: Scuderi L. A. , McFadden L. D. , McAuliffe J. R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A major impediment to an understanding of the links between climate and landscape change, has been the relatively coarse resolution of landscape response measures (rates of weathering, sediment production, erosion and transport) relative to the higher resolution of the climatic signal (precipitation and temperature on hourly to annual time scales). A combination of high temporal and spatial resolution dendroclimatic and dendrogeomorphic approaches were used to study relationships between climatic variability and hillslope and valley floor dynamics in a small drainage basin in the Colorado Plateau of northeastern Arizona, USA Dendrogeomorphic and vegetation evidence from slopes and valley bottoms, including root exposure, bending of trunks, change in plant cover and burial and exhumation of valley bottom trees and shrubs, suggest that the currently observed process of root colonization and rapid breakdown of the weakly cemented bedrock by subaerial weathering, related to periodic dry/wet cycle induced changes in vegetation cover, has lead to a discontinuous, climate-controlled production of sediment from these slopes. High-amplitude precipitation shifts over the last 2000-years may exert the largest control on landscape processes and may be as, or more, important than other hypothesized causal mechanisms (e.g. ENSO frequency and intensity, flood frequency) in eroding slopes and producing sediments that ultimately impact higher order drainages in the region. Current vegetation response to a prolonged drought over the past decade suggests that another major transition, incorporating vegetation change, slope erosion, sediment production and subsequent valley floor deposition, may be in its initial phase.
Volcanic ash forecast – application to the May 2008 Chaitén eruption
Authors: Folch A. , Jorba O. , Viramonte J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We model the transport and subsequent deposition of ash from Chaitén volcano, Chile, during the first week of May 2008. The simulation couples the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model with the FALL3D dispersion model. We only use semi-quantitative volcanological inputs based on the first eruption reports. We consider two different run types based on forecasted and hindcasted meteorological conditions. The first simulation type can be regarded as a syn-eruptive operational forecast for the 2–8 May period. We predict the evolution of the ash cloud position, the concentration of ash on air, the expected deposit thickness, and the ash accumulation rates at different localities. The comparison of model results with observed cloud arrival times and satellite images shows the goodness of the combined WRF+FALL3D forecast system and points out the feasibility of combining these two models for short-term forecast of volcanic clouds and ash fallout.
Investigating non-uniform scaling behaviour in temporal fluctuations of seismicity
Authors: Telesca L. , Lovallo M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Scaling behaviour in nonstationary time series can be successfully detected using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA). Observational time series often do not show a stable and uniform scaling behaviour, given by the presence of a unique clear scaling region. The deviations from uniform power-law scaling, which suggest the presence of changing dynamics in the system under study, can be identified and quantified using an appropriate instability index. In this framework, the scaling behaviour of the 1981–2007 seismicity in Umbria-Marche (central Italy), which is one of the most seismically active areas in Italy, was investigated. Significant deviations from uniform power-law scaling in the seismic temporal fluctuations were revealed mostly linked with the occurrence of rather large earthquakes or seismic clusters.
Characterization and monitoring of the Åknes rockslide using terrestrial laser scanning
Authors: Oppikofer T. , Jaboyedoff M. , Blikra L. , Derron M.-H. , Metzger R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) provides high-resolution point clouds of the topography and new TLS instruments with ranges exceeding 300 m or even 1000 m are powerful tools for characterizing and monitoring slope movements. This study focuses on the 35 million m3 Åknes rockslide in Western Norway, which is one of the most investigated and monitored rockslides in the world. The TLS point clouds are used for the structural analysis of the steep, inaccessible main scarp of the rockslide, including an assessment of the discontinuity sets and fold axes. TLS acquisitions in 2006, 2007 and 2008 provide information on 3-D displacements for the entire scanned area and are not restricted like conventional survey instruments to single measurement points. The affine transformation matrix between two TLS acquisitions precisely describes the rockslide displacements and enables their separation into translational components, such as the displacement velocity and direction, and rotational components, like toppling. This study shows the ability of TLS to obtain reliable 3-D displacement information over a large, unstable area. Finally, a possible instability model for the upper part of Åknes rockslide explains the measured translational and rotational displacements by a combination of southward planar sliding along the gneiss foliation, gravitational vertical settlement along the complex, stepped basal sliding surface and northward toppling toward the opened graben structure.
Seismic safety assessment of unreinforced masonry low-rise buildings in Pakistan and its neighbourhood
Authors: Korkmaz K. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Pakistan and neighbourhood experience numerous earthquakes, most of which result in damaged or collapsed buildings and loss of life that also affect the economy adversely. On 29 October, 2008, an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 occurred in Ziarat, Quetta Region, Pakistan which was followed by more than 400 aftershocks. Many villages were completely destroyed and more than 200 people died. The previous major earthquake was in 2005, known as the South Asian earthquake (Mw=7.6) occurred in Kashmir, where 80 000 people died. Inadequate building stock is to be blamed for the degree of disaster, as the majority of the buildings in the region are unreinforced masonry low-rise buildings. In this study, seismic vulnerability of regionally common unreinforced masonry low-rise buildings was investigated using probabilistic based seismic safety assessment. The results of the study showed that unreinforced masonry low-rise buildings display higher displacements and shear force. Probability of damage due to higher displacements and shear forces can be directly related to damage or collapse.
Towards rockfall forecasting through observing deformations and listening to microseismic emissions
Authors: Arosio D. , Longoni L. , Papini M. , Scaioni M. , Zanzi L. , Alba M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Reliable forecasting of rockfall is a challenging task, mainly because of the lack of clearly noticeable forerunners as well as due to the geological and geo-mechanical complexity of the rock movements involved. Conventional investigation devices still present some drawbacks, since most measurements are generally carried out at isolated locations as well as on the surface only. Novel remote-sensing monitoring instruments, such as Terrestrial Laser Scanning (TLS) and Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radars (GB-InSAR), are capable of inspecting an unstable slope with a high spatial and temporal frequency. But they still rely on measurements of the failure surface, from which displacement or velocity are measured. On the contrary, acoustic emission/microseismic monitoring may provide a deeper insight of stress and strain conditions within the sub-surface rock mass. In fact, the capability to detect microseismic events originating within an unstable rock mass is a key element in locating growing cracks and, as a consequence, in understanding the slide kinematics and triggering mechanisms of future collapses. Thus, a monitoring approach based on the combination of classical methodologies, remote sensing techniques and microseismic investigations would be a promising research field. In the present paper we discuss the technologies and we illustrate some experiments conducted in the framework of a project whose final goal is the installation of an integrated monitoring and alerting system on a rockface nearby Lecco (Italy). In particular, we present a review of performances and applications of remote sensing devices and some results concerning a terrestrial laser scanner preliminary campaign. Then, we report findings regarding amplitude, frequency content and rate of signals recorded during an in situ test carried out to evaluate the performance of three different microseismic transducers.
Variations in sea surface roughness induced by the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami
Authors: Godin O. A. , Irisov V. G. , Leben R. R. , Hamlington B. D. , Wick G. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Observations of tsunamis away from shore are critically important for improving early warning systems and understanding of tsunami generation and propagation. Tsunamis are difficult to detect and measure in the open ocean because the wave amplitude there is much smaller than it is close to shore. Currently, tsunami observations in deep water rely on measurements of variations in the sea surface height or bottom pressure. Here we demonstrate that there exists a different observable, specifically, ocean surface roughness, which can be used to reveal tsunamis away from shore. The first detailed measurements of the tsunami effect on sea surface height and radar backscattering strength in the open ocean were obtained from satellite altimeters during passage of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman tsunami. Through statistical analyses of satellite altimeter observations, we show that the Sumatra-Andaman tsunami effected distinct, detectable changes in sea surface roughness. The magnitude and spatial structure of the observed variations in radar backscattering strength are consistent with hydrodynamic models predicting variations in the near-surface wind across the tsunami wave front. Tsunami-induced changes in sea surface roughness can be potentially used for early tsunami detection by orbiting microwave radars and radiometers, which have broad surface coverage across the satellite ground track.
Assessing global exposure and vulnerability towards natural hazards: the Disaster Risk Index
Authors: Peduzzi P. , Dao H. , Herold C. , Mouton F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper presents a model of factors influencing levels of human losses from natural hazards at the global scale, for the period 1980–2000. This model was designed for the United Nations Development Programme as a building stone of the Disaster Risk Index (DRI), which aims at monitoring the evolution of risk. Assessing what countries are most at risk requires considering various types of hazards, such as droughts, floods, cyclones and earthquakes. Before assessing risk, these four hazards were modelled using GIS and overlaid with a model of population distribution in order to extract human exposure. Human vulnerability was measured by crossing exposure with selected socio-economic parameters. The model evaluates to what extent observed past losses are related to population exposure and vulnerability. Results reveal that human vulnerability is mostly linked with country development level and environmental quality. A classification of countries is provided, as well as recommendations on data improvement for future use of the model.
Design of reinforced ground embankments used for rockfall protection
Authors: Ronco C. , Oggeri C. , Peila D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The prediction of the effects of rockfall on passive protection structures, such as reinforced ground embankments, is a very complex task and, for this reason, both full-scale tests and numerical dynamic modelling are essential. A systematic set of numerical FEM models, developed in the dynamic field, has been implemented in this work to evaluate the conditions of an embankment that has been subjected to the impact of rock blocks of various sizes at different speeds. These analyses have permitted design charts to be obtained. Furthermore, a simplified analytical approach, based on an equilibrium analysis, has been proposed and its results are compared with numerical data in order to assess its feasibility. A good correspondence between the results has been obtained.
Investigation of recent catastrophic landslides in the flysch belt of Outer Western Carpathians (Czech Republic): progress towards better hazard assessment
Authors: Klimeš J. , Baroň I. , Pánek T. , Kosačík T. , Burda J. , Kresta F. , Hradecký J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Rapid snow melting and intense precipitation triggered and reactivated tens of mostly shallow landslides in the eastern part of the Czech Republic at the turn of March and April 2006. This area is build up by highly fractured flysch rock units with variable content of sandstones and claystones. The landslide complex at Hluboče (Brumov-Bylnice town) is composed of shallow translational (up to 10 m thick) as well as deep-seated (up to 20 m thick) rotational landslides, which generated a catastrophic earthflow at their toe. This earthflow destroyed three buildings, the access road and caused total loss of about 350 000 EUR. Detailed field investigation, review of the archive sources and interviewing of local inhabitants allowed brief description of slope movement history prior the catastrophic event as well as detailed reconstruction of slope failure mechanisms during the main movement activity (3–4 April 2006). This information, along with the detailed description of the passive as well as active causative factors (structural and morphologic settings) can contribute towards better identification of potentially dangerous slope failures in the study region.
On the moroccan tsunami catalogue
Authors: Kaabouben F. , Baptista M. A. , Iben Brahim A. , El Mouraouah A. , Toto A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A primary tool for regional tsunami hazard assessment is a reliable historical and instrumental catalogue of events. Morocco by its geographical situation, with two marine sides, stretching along the Atlantic coast to the west and along the Mediterranean coast to the north, is the country of Western Africa most exposed to the risk of tsunamis. Previous information on tsunami events affecting Morocco are included in the Iberian and/or the Mediterranean lists of tsunami events, as it is the case of the European GITEC Tsunami Catalogue, but there is a need to organize this information in a dataset and to assess the likelihood of claimed historical tsunamis in Morocco. Due to the fact that Moroccan sources are scarce, this compilation rely on historical documentation from neighbouring countries (Portugal and Spain) and so the compatibility between the new tsunami catalogue presented here and those that correspond to the same source areas is also discussed.
Variogram maps from LiDAR data as fingerprints of surface morphology on scree slopes
Authors: Trevisani S. , Cavalli M. , Marchi L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Herein, an aerial LiDAR topographic dataset is analysed and interpolated by means of geostatistical techniques in order to examine the morphology of a scree slope area in the Eastern Italian Alps. The LiDAR-derived digital terrain model (DTM) is analysed using variogram maps as spatial continuity indexes. This allowed for evaluation of the reproduction of spatial variability of topography and for the characterization and comparison of different morphological features occurring in the study site. The results indicate that variogram maps efficiently synthesise the spatial variability of topography in a local search window, representing suitable "fingerprints" of surface morphology.
Seismic source displacement by coda wave interferometry at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, WI
Authors: De Angelis S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Since the start of the ongoing eruption, on 18 July 1995, the Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV) on Montserrat, WI, has been monitored with a network of seismometers providing an unparalleled wealth of observations. A recurrent and intriguing feature of the seismicity at SHV is the occurrence of regular swarms of low-frequency earthquakes during episodes of volcanic unrest. A notable example of this type of activity was recorded during the summer of 2008 when SHV erupted, on 29 July, following 15 days of seismic unrest. An impressive swarm of low-frequency earthquakes with strikingly similar waveforms, was recorded on 26 July through 27 July 2008. In this paper, the cross-correlation properties of the repeating earthquakes are investigated, and coda wave interferometry methods applied to infer seismic source displacement throughout the swarm.