Fatality rate and predictors of mortality in an Italian cohort of hospitalized COVID-19 patients
Authors: Bellan Mattia , Patti Giuseppe , Hayden Eyal , Azzolina Danila , Pirisi Mario , Acquaviva Antonio , Aimaretti Gianluca , Aluffi Valletti Paolo , Angilletta Roberto , Arioli Roberto , Avanzi Gian Carlo , Avino Gianluca , Balbo Piero Emilio , Baldon Giulia , Baorda Francesca , Barbero Emanuela , Baricich Alessio , Barini Michela , Barone-Adesi Francesco , Battistini Sofia , Beltrame Michela , Bertoli Matteo , Bertolin Stephanie , Bertolotti Marinella , Betti Marta , Bobbio Flavio , Boffano Paolo , Boglione Lucio , Borrè Silvio , Brucoli Matteo , Calzaducca Elisa , Cammarata Edoardo , Cantaluppi Vincenzo , Cantello Roberto , Capponi Andrea , Carriero Alessandro , Casciaro Francesco Giuseppe , Castello Luigi Mario , Ceruti Federico , Chichino Guido , Chirico Emilio , Cisari Carlo , Cittone Micol Giulia , Colombo Crizia , Comi Cristoforo , Croce Eleonora , Daffara Tommaso , Danna Pietro , Della Corte Francesco , De Vecchi Simona , Dianzani Umberto , Di Benedetto Davide , Esposto Elia , Faggiano Fabrizio , Falaschi Zeno , Ferrante Daniela , Ferrero Alice , Gagliardi Ileana , Gaidano Gianluca , Galbiati Alessandra , Gallo Silvia , Garavelli Pietro Luigi , Gardino Clara Ada , Garzaro Massimiliano , Gastaldello Maria Luisa , Gavelli Francesco , Gennari Alessandra , Giacomini Greta Maria , Giacone Irene , Giai Via Valentina , Giolitti Francesca , Gironi Laura Cristina , Gramaglia Carla , Grisafi Leonardo , Inserra Ilaria , Invernizzi Marco , Krengli Marco , Labella Emanuela , Landi Irene Cecilia , Landi Raffaella , Leone Ilaria , Lio Veronica , Lorenzini Luca , Maconi Antonio , Malerba Mario , Manfredi Giulia Francesca , Martelli Maria , Marzari Letizia , Marzullo Paolo , Mennuni Marco , Montabone Claudia , Morosini Umberto , Mussa Marco , Nerici Ilaria , Nuzzo Alessandro , Olivieri Carlo , Padelli Samuel Alberto , Panella Massimiliano , Parisini Andrea , Paschè Alessio , Pau Alberto , Pedrinelli Anita Rebecca , Percivale Ilaria , Re Roberta , Rigamonti Cristina , Rizzi Eleonora , Rognoni Andrea , Roveta Annalisa , Salamina Luigia , Santagostino Matteo , Saraceno Massimo , Savoia Paola , Sciarra Marco , Schimmenti Andrea , Scotti Lorenza , Spinoni Enrico , Smirne Carlo , Tarantino Vanessa , Tillio Paolo Amedeo , Vaschetto Rosanna , Vassia Veronica , Zagaria Domenico , Zavattaro Elisa , Zeppegno Patrizia , Zottarelli Francesca , Sainaghi Pier Paolo 
Published: November 2020

Clinical features and natural history of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) differ widely among different countries and during different phases of the pandemia. Here, we aimed to evaluate the case fatality rate (CFR) and to identify predictors of mortality in a cohort of COVID-19 patients admitted to three hospitals of Northern Italy between March 1 and April 28, 2020. All these patients had a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection by molecular methods. During the study period 504/1697 patients died; thus, overall CFR was 29.7%. We looked for predictors of mortality in a subgroup of 486 patients (239 males, 59%; median age 71 years) for whom sufficient clinical data were available at data cut-off. Among the demographic and clinical variables considered, age, a diagnosis of cancer, obesity and current smoking independently predicted mortality. When laboratory data were added to the model in a further subgroup of patients, age, the diagnosis of cancer, and the baseline PaO2/FiO2 ratio were identified as independent predictors of mortality. In conclusion, the CFR of hospitalized patients in Northern Italy during the ascending phase of the COVID-19 pandemic approached 30%. The identification of mortality predictors might contribute to better stratification of individual patient risk.