bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Population Change and Farm Settlement in the Northern United States
Authors: Easterlin Richard A.
Published: May 2010

As farm settlement spread westward, area after area exhibited remarkably similar economic and demographic changes, among them, the establishment of a virtually zero growth rate of farm population. At bottom this was due to a shift in farm family fertility from very high to replacement levels, a trend apparent in older areas as early as the beginning of the nineteenth century despite the abundance of good farm land to the west. The principal source of this wholly voluntary adjustment of fertility was the increasing difficulty encountered by farm parents in providing for their children the kind of start in life they would like them to have. Similar pressures may account for other rural fertility declines in the historical past or today's LDC's.
Are The Rich Getting Richer? Trends in U.S. Wealth Concentration
Authors: Lebergott Stanley
Published: May 2010

When tested against U.S. evidence back to the nineteenth century a straight-forward model of wealth accumulation contradicts the belief that “the rich are getting richer.” If the wealth owned by the top 1 percent of American families in 1922 had earned only a modest 8 percent yearly until 1953 then they (or their heirs) would have owned 98 percent of personal wealth—instead of an actual share of 28 percent. The erosion of top wealth groups also appears for 1953–1969, and for 1892 and the years following. The reasons for such erosion, inherent in the structure of U.S. families and of U.S. institutions, are discussed.
Krooss on Executive Opinion
Authors: Hughes J. R. T.
Published: May 2010

In Executive Opinion, Herman Krooss analyzed American business thought in this century and found that the country's business and labor leaders, statesmen, journalists, and economists, did not have very profound insights on most of the great issues of their day. He also concluded that although in the past there was considerable diversity of executive opinion, the differences have decreased in our own time due to the decline of the entrepreneurial leader. Executive Opinion is a disquieting and dispiriting book which will long stand as a starkly honest comment on the twentieth century and as a monument to Herman Krooss' insight into the economic development of this country.
Financial Integration in Late Nineteenth-Century Austria
Authors: Good David F.
Published: May 2010

The process of financial integration has been charted in several studies of the late nineteenth-century U.S. economy but lacks comparable documentation in a European case. This gap is filled through an examination of interregional interest rate trends in the pre-World War I Austrian economy. The Austrian data show a marked trend toward rate convergence beginning in the 1870s. These results are significant for the U.S. case and for the long standing debate on the economic viability of the Habsburg Monarchy before World War I and of the successor states in the interwar period.
Economies of Scale and Farm Size in the Antebellum Sugar Sector
Authors: Schmitz Mark D.
Published: May 2010

This article explains the emergence of a plantation economy in the antebellum sugar sector. The hypothesis of increasing returns to scale was tested using a Zellner-Revankar generalized production function model. Economies of scale were found using samples from the manuscript censuses, but these scale economies diminished with size. A second important factor in explaining the size distribution of farms was the dual technology in the manufacturing stage of sugar production. Farms with inferior horse-power mills had poorer survival records and less flexibility in expansion than those using steam power mills.
The Changing Role of Foreign Money in the United States, 1782–1857
Authors: Martin David A.
Published: May 2010

Foreign money remained in widespread use in the United States until the middle of the nineteenth century. Several foreign coins were provided legal tender status in order to supplement the scanty American specie supply. A particular disadvantage was the perpetuation of non-decimal units of account, especially in New York. When the U.S. enacted a subsidiary silver standard in 1853, the expedient bases for the lawful status of foreign coin was removed. In 1857, the United States coinage was finally reformed to secure an exclusive national currency.
The Determinants of Personal Wealth in Seventeenth-Century England and America
Authors: Shammas Carole
Published: May 2010

This article explores the determinants of wealth for seventeenth-century Englishmen living in three very different environments—Worcestershire, East London, and Tidewater, Virginia. Wealth differences among these regions can be described in terms of the particular mix of occupational status groups, age groups, and literates each possessed. When all of these variables are accounted for, region becomes an insignificant determinant of wealth. Occupational status, predictably, had the primary influence on wealth, but the system, through provisions for age and education, also made definite allowances for the ability to use and consume resources efficiently.
Did American Manufacturers Discriminate Against Immigrants Before 1914?
Authors: McGouldrick Paul F. , Tannen Michael B.
Published: May 2010

Several accounts have documented the difficult employment experiences of immigrants in manufacturing industries around the turn of the twentieth century. A recent quantitative study, however, has asserted that wage differentials between immigrants and natives were the result of differences in skill, and not discrimination. We examine the same data on a less aggregative level, and our regression analysis indicates that the so-called “new” immigrants received lower wages than either “old” immigrants or natives—even after standardizing for worker skills and industry characteristics. An analysis of a second data set confirms the finding of discrimination.
Notes on the Social Saving Controversy
Authors: Fogel Robert William
Published: May 2010

This paper explores a number of the unresolved issues posed by the debate on the social saving of railroads. The final section includes a brief summary of the main findings of the new economic history of transportation.
The Impact of Regional Differences in Prices and Wages on Economic Growth: The United States in 1890
Authors: Coelho Philip R. P. , Shepherd James F.
Published: May 2010

Differences in regional prices and wages are examined for the United States in 1890, together with the relationship between the cost of living and city size, and the determinants of regional industrial growth. Results indicate that regional cost-of-liying differences were sufficiently large so that money wages cannot be used for purposes of comparing the economic well-being of wage earners across regions. Except for the South, money wages and the cost of living were positively correlated. The relative differences in money wages, however, were greater; consequently real wages in high wage-price areas were generally higher.
Damnifying Growth in the Antebellum South
Authors: Huertas Thomas F.
Published: May 2010

The South's failure to industrialize more rapidly in the antebellum period did not lead to its immiserization. The South's terms of trade improved over the antebellum period so that its consumption potential expanded more rapidly than did production. Specialization in cotton production promoted a favorable movement of relative prices facing Southern producers. A customs union analysis shows that the South might have industrialized to a greater extent and might have raised its consumption potential further had it been able to impose an independent tariff on imports from all areas, including the rest of the United States.
The Transfer of Technology to China in the Nineteenth Century: The Role of Direct Foreign Investment
Authors: Brown Shannon R.
Published: May 2010

The transfer of technology to China in the nineteenth century was carried out both by Chinese and foreigners. Given the half-hearted interest of the Chinese government in such activities, however, the role of direct foreign investment was enhanced. The profitability of such investments was determined not only by comparative costs and other conventional economic variables, but also by the interaction of each project with China's traditional system of political economy. The nature and importance of this interaction is examined by means of a number of case studies. The results emphasize the importance of cultural elements in the transfer of technology.
The Cultural Determinants of Entrepreneurship and Economic Development: A Case Study Of Mendoza Province, Argentina, 1861–1914
Authors: Fleming William J.
Published: May 2010

Analyses of the cultural factors supporting modernization and development have moved along a continuum from the clear-cut formulations of Parsons, Schumpeter, and Weber to the paradoxical assertions of contemporary scholars. The failure of countries like Argentina to achieve sustained development after spectacular starts has contributed to the confusion. This study examines two popular cultural explanations for such developmental problems, and finds them both wanting. Men-doza's experience suggests the need to adjust development programs to local cultural exigencies, rather than the reverse, as most analysts have argued. A four-part sequence to this effect is presented.
The Case of the Impoverished Sophisticate: Human Capital and Swedish Economic Growth before World War I
Authors: Sandberg Lars G.
Published: May 2010

Around 1850 Sweden had a stock of human capital wildly disproportionate to its very low income level. This situation contributed significantly to the speed of the growth spurt that occurred between that time and World War I. In the short run, this large human capital stock allowed Sweden to take fuller advantage of the new opportunities for exports which appeared around 1860. In the longer run Sweden benefited because it is easier to achieve a rapid accumulation of physical than of human capital. The disproportionate early accumulation of human capital is explained in terms of religious, political, and military events of the previous three centuries.
Economic Growth in Colonial New England: “Statistical Renaissance”
Authors: Anderson Terry L.
Published: May 2010

During the past few years new measures of growth have begun to emerge for the colonial period in American history which allow us to understand more fully the pace and pattern of long-run economic growth. This essay summarizes what we know about colonial growth and discusses rates of growth during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. After summarizing previous work on the subject, the paper estimates eighteenth-century agricultural productivity in one New England county. Data on total wealth, livestock, crops, land, and agricultural capital are generated from estate inventories. A consumer price index for the period also is constructed. From these data it appears that the seventeenth century experienced growth comparable to modern times, whereas the eighteenth century was a bleak period in our history. Although real wealth per inventory grew at a rate of 0.5 percent per year during the eighteenth century, agricultural productivity declined at a rate of 0.8 percent.
The Economic Growth of the Eighteenth-Century Chesapeake Colonies
Authors: Kulikoff Allan
Published: May 2010

The Chesapeake economy failed to grow during the first half of the eighteenth century, but experienced rapid development during the third quarter of the century. Economic stagnation before 1750 resulted from the inability of tobacco planters either to increase productivity or to reduce costs of production, whereas an increase in grain exports and rising amounts of Scottish credit to planters explain growth during the pre-Revolutionary decades. Nonetheless, whites were able to purchase increasing quantities of consumer goods by exploiting the labor of the increasing numbers of black slaves who produced most of the region's tobacco.
Female Labor Force Participation: The Origin of Black and White Differences, 1870 and 1880
Authors: Goldin Claudia
Published: May 2010

Although white women have only recently entered the work force, their black counterparts have participated throughout American history. Differences between their rates of participation have been recorded only for the post-1890 period and analyzed only for the post-1940 period due to a lack of available data. To remedy this deficiency my work explores female labor supply at the dawn of emanicipation, 1870 and 1880, in seven southern cities, using data drawn from the manuscripts of the population census. Probit regression techniques demonstrate that economic and demographic variables explain only part of the difference between black and white women and, as in the findings of contemporary research, race is shown to be an important factor. Several explanations are discussed, in particular one relying on socialization differences which are termed a “legacy of slavery.”
Success Illgotten? The Role of Meiji Militarism in Japan's Technological Progress
Authors: Yamamura Kozo
Published: May 2010

This study suggests that the militaristic orientation of the Meiji government and the wars fought against China and Russia contributed significantly to technological development in Meiji Japan (1868–1911). The roles played by the arsenals and the government-owned shipyards and factories in adopting and disseminating foreign technology are described to demonstrate their importance in the rapid Meiji industrialization. The article suggests that it is necessary to reexamine the view, primarily based on macro-economic analysis, that Meiji militarism was basically detrimental to economic growth in Japan.
Understanding Political Events in the New Economic History
Authors: Reid Joseph D.
Published: May 2010

New economic historians' explanations of market activity slight the timing of change, as well as the importance of institutions and attitudes. These deficiencies, unimportant in analyses of goods market activity, are unacceptable in analyses of political activity. To extend the domain of economic history to political activity, therefore, I summarize the political market in sentiment (what voters want ex ante), loyalty (what voters want ex post), and acquiescence (what voters accept). To show how these measures facilitate analysis of political activity, I discuss the origins of the American Civil War.
The Old South's Stake in the Inter-Regional Movement of Slaves, 1850–1860
Authors: Kotlikoff Laurence J. , Pinera Sebastian
Published: May 2010

The Old South's economic stake in western land expansion and slave migration is examined in a two-region, general equilibrium model of slave mobility. The model separates the effect on the Old South's assets and slave population of more western land from that of slave sales per se. The authors conclude that the Old South had no economic stake in the New South. The most conservative estimate reveals that a doubling of western lands in 1850 would have increased Old South wealth by less than two percent.
Russian Monetary Policy and Industrialization, 1861-1913
Authors: Gregory Paul , Sailors Joel W.
Published: May 2010

Some recent critics of Russian industrial policy argue that the costs of the Witte System may have been excessive relative to its benefits and that similar rates (or perhaps higher rates) of industrial growth could have been attained if alternate fiscal and monetary policies had been adopted. Once differential rates of growth of prices and real national income are considered, it appears that the Russian money supply was not unduly constrained. The authors also demonstrate that foreign capital inflows made a substantial contribution to Russian economic development, as did the decision to adhere to the international gold standard.
Grain Prices and Subsistence Crises in England and France, 1590–1740
Authors: Appleby Andrew B.
Published: May 2010

In early modern Europe the major concern of many people was getting enough food to stay alive. The “problem of subsistence” varied considerably, however, between one country—or one region—and another. England, for instance, was free of major subsistence crises during the later seventeenth century, when France was hard hit by repeated and deadly famines. In this essay I shall point out some of the differences between these two countries that might explain the success of one and the failure of the other to feed its people.
Indispensable Railroads in a Backward Economy: The Case of Mexico
Authors: Coatsworth John H.
Published: May 2010

The contribution of railroads to economic growth in the nineteenth century depended on two critical variables: unit savings in transport costs the railroads made possible and the quantity of passengers and freight the railroads attracted. Unit savings depended mainly on geography; either cheap water transport existed before the railroads or it did not. Unit savings depended secondarily on the value of the time the railroads saved and on the flexibility in selection of routes made possible by the new technology. The quantities of passengers and freight actually transported depended on two interrelated factors: the prior development of the economy and its responsiveness to cheaper transport.
World Demand for Cotton during the Nineteenth Century: Wright's Estimates Re-examined
Authors: Hanson John R.
Published: May 2010

A low rate of growth of world demand for cotton figures prominently in recent attempts to understand the post-bellum retardation of the southern economy. Gavin Wright, especially, stresses this factor in several articles and a recent book.1 Using-sophisticated regression techniques to estimate the rate of growth of demand for American cotton during both the ante- and post-bellum eras and the magnitude of the change in the rate between them, Wright finds a decline of more than two thirds. Such an occurrence could hardly have helped the South make a prompt recovery from the Civil War.
Slavery, the Supply of Agricultural Labor, and the Industrialization of the South
Authors: Fleisig Heywood
Published: May 2010

This article assumes that the only effect of slavery was the relief of a labor constraint facing individual farmers, and shows the conditions under which slavery would increase the share of agriculture in total output, reduce the size of the market for, and the incentive to invent and innovate, new farm machinery. Two farm models are developed, one with a fixed laborconstraint, the other with a rising labor supply-curve; these are contrasted with a third model of an unconstrained farm. The constrained (free labor) and unconstrained (slave labor) models successfully predict several salient differences between northern and southern agriculture and industry.
The Russian Gold Standard, 1897–1914
Authors: Drummond Ian M.
Published: May 2010

This paper examines the workings of the Imperial Russian gold standard, presents annual estimates on money supply under three definitions, and compares changes in money with changes in gold reserves, finding no relation. The Russian monetary system was insulated from gold movements in at least seven ways, of which three were accidental and four were deliberate. The article concludes on a note of speculative skepticism about the macro-economic significance of the rate of monetary growth, and of the gold standard itself, during the period.
Property Rights and Empire Building: Britain's Annexation of Lagos, 1861
Authors: Hopkins Antony G.
Published: May 2010

Britain's acquisiton of Lagos has already attracted considerable historical research, but it is examined here from a new perspective and with the help of unused sources. Three conclusions are drawn. First, the episode itself is reinterpreted to give prominence to changing property rights as both a cause and a consequence of annexation. Second, it is argued that the Lagos case can be placed in a broader framework of imperial expansion in which institutional change formed the centerpiece of a nineteenth-century development drive. Third, it is suggested that the study of African history might benefit from assigning higher priority to the analysis of property rights other than those embodied in slave-holding.
The Petroleum Industry in Transition: Antitrust and the Decline of Monopoly Control in Oil
Authors: Pratt Joseph A.
Published: May 2010

The discovery of vast oil fields in Texas after 1901 encouraged competition in an industry previously dominated by Standard Oil of New Jersey. The manner in which the state of Texas enforced its antitrust and corporation laws hastened the growth of several major new oil companies, most notably Gulf Oil and The Texas Company, by constraining the activities of Standard in the new fields. In so doing, these Texas laws shaped the transition from near monopoly to near oligopoly in the oil industry. Such beneficial results of state laws were, however, largely accidental, since weaknesses in the government's capacity to monitor changes in the burgeoning industry undermined its ability to define and implement systematic regulatory policies. Problems of adjustment that accompanied government's early efforts to regulate market structure in oil have continued to hamper subsequent efforts to regulate other aspects of the industry's operations.
Age and the Acceptance of Cliometrics
Authors: Diamond Arthur M.
Published: May 2010

Popular wisdom asserts, and life-cycle theories of human capital investment seem to imply, that older scientists are slower to accept new theories than are younger scientists. When this view is tested with evidence on the acceptance of cliometrics, however, the year-of-birth variable, although statistically significant, explains less than 10 percent of the variance in acceptance.
It's a Long, Long Road to Tipperary, or Reflections on Organized Violence, Protection Rates, and Related Topics: The New Political History
Authors: Davis Lance E.
Published: May 2010

Twenty years ago Professor Frederic C. Lane recognized the close connection between economics and political history and suggested that it is impossible to understand fully the first without some understanding of the second. Relatively little work has been done in that area over the ensuing two decades. In that period both social and political historians have become more quantitative, and although their work has permitted us to discuss some alleged explanations of social and political development, it has not really produced viable alternatives. This failure is linked with the theoretical nature of the analysis. Although there does not appear to be a useful body of theory in sociology, positive political science offers such a structure for our understanding of political history.
Export Instability in Historical Perspective: Further Results
Authors: Hanson John R.
Published: May 2010

Today's less developed countries maintain that high instability in export prices is a serious obstacle to their economic development. History shows, however, that some of today's developed countries also experienced high price instability in the international markets they served when they were at a comparable phase in the development process. Current recommendations to institute a network of international commodity agreements for the most important primary products exported by the LDCs seem beside the point in light of this evidence.
Antebellum Interregional Trade in Agricultural Goods: Preliminary Results
Authors: Callahan Colleen M. , Hutchinson William K.
Published: May 2010

This paper provides evidence regarding the extent of antebellum trade in major agricultural products between the West and the Northeast, the types of products involved, and the magnitude of surpluses or deficits. We found that West-Northeast trade was more important than West-South trade.
Trade Protection as an International Commodity: The Case of Steel
Authors: Yeager Mary A.
Published: May 2010

Trade protection commonly is viewed as a support—external and perhaps occasional—granted to an industry by government policymakers. Focusing on the steel industry, this study argues that protection is better viewed as a commodity, an input into the production of steel. The development of the market for the protection commodity during the past century is related to the history of regional, national, and international markets for steel.
The Management of Sterling, 1932–1939
Authors: Howson Susan
Published: May 2010

This article briefly discusses the operations of the British Exchange Equalization Account, 1932–1939, on the basis of the Treasury records of the time and in the light of modern views on exchange management. Its conclusion is that although the float may not have been “clean,” the intervention was probably justified by domestic objectives and the state of international capital markets.
Money and Prices in the Nineteenth Century: An Old Debate Rejoined
Authors: Bordo Michael D. , Schwartz Anna J.
Published: May 2010

In recent work, W. W. Rostow and W. A. Lewis have forcefully argued that real, not monetary, forces explain major periods of inflation and deflation in both the United States and Great Britain from 1797 to 1914. For them, changes in relative growth rates of agricultural and industrial output induce changes in the relative prices of major commodities and in the overall price level. A test of the substitutability of wheat for other primary products, 1870–1914, does not support the Rostow-Lewis theory.
Women and Industry in Florence
Authors: Brown Judith C. , Goodman Jordan
Published: May 2010

This study examines the Florentine economy and women's role in it from the fifteenth to the seventeenth centuries. The changes that took place in the Florentine economy as it adapted to new economic opportunities undermine the notion of economic decline and suggest instead considerable resilience. The changes that took place helped to produce and were themselves the product of the growing participation of women in the economy.
World War II and Female Labor Force Participation Rates
Authors: Schweitzer Mary M.
Published: May 2010

Between the years 1940 and 1947 the demand for female labor in the United States shifted rapidly. Wages for women rose swiftly during the war, then fell suddenly when industries converted to peacetime production. This paper makes use of household production theory to explore the behavior of different segments of the female labor force as they responded to the radical changes in demand brought by World War II. The analysis suggests that a crucial turning point in the efforts to hire women was reached in the second half of 1943.
Family Structure and Proto-industrialization in Russia
Authors: Rudolph Richard L.
Published: May 2010

The experience of Russia is examined to establish whether the area underwent a process of proto-industrialization comparable to that found in Western Europe. It is argued that the process did take place in this region, even with unfree labor, and served as the basis for much later industrial development. It is also argued that the Russian case differed a good deal from that found in the West. The major factors operating to make the pattern different include the previous existence of the “non- European” marriage pattern, marked differences in family and household structure, the relative immobility of labor, and the degree to which there were half-peasant, half-manufacturing households that dominated much of manufacture.
Labor Productivity and Managerial Efficiency against a Static Technology: The Pennsylvania Iron Industry, 1750–1800
Authors: Paskoff Paul F.
Published: May 2010

An increase in labor productivity and a reduction of fuel consumption rates were two notable and closely related achievements of the management of Hopewell Forge, an ironworks in eighteenth-century Pennsylvania. Significantly, these economies were realized in the face of technological stasis through learning by doing. The analysis of this accomplishment is cast in the larger context of the performance of the iron industry before and after 1800.
But It Will Never Be Science, Either
Authors: Rutten Andrew
Published: May 2010

In the neoclassical-cliometric view of historical events, earlier concerns with economic change over time are now “out of bounds.” This narrowing has been justified by the supposed demands of scientific rigor, but a new model of science suggests that this need not be so. Science does not have any single goal or method. Science demands that economic historians develop whatever tools are needed to solve the problems they face. Examples of this already exist.
Population Transfers and the Post-Bellum Adjustment to Economic Dislocation, 1870–1920
Authors: Vedder Richard K. , Gallaway Lowell E.
Published: May 2010

It is argued in this article that the labor market disequilibrium produced by the American Civil War was substantially eliminated through the process of interregional migration of population over the interval 1870–1920. This migration caused the system of regional labor markets to converge toward a “steady-state” equilibrium. It is estimated that the efficiencies introduced by this migration process explain 6 percent of per capita income levels in 1920.
Fertility and Marriage in a Nineteenth-Century Industrial City: Philadelphia, 1850–1880
Authors: Haines Michael R.
Published: May 2010

This paper examines age-specific and differential fertility, both marital and total, and nuptiality for census samples of white Philadelphia families headed by native white Americans, Germans, and Irish for 1850–1880. Using Philadelphia Social History Project data, own-children techniques are employed to construct age-standardized child-woman ratios and age-specific total and marital fertility rates. Conclusions are that the low fertility among native whites was due to both low marital fertility and later marriage; that rapid declines in marital fertility occurred among second generation migrants; and that variations existed in marital fertility across occupational groupings within ethnic groups.
Economic Variables and the Development of the Law: The Case of Western Mineral Rights
Authors: Libecap Gary D.
Published: May 2010

Much of American legal activity during the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries centered on the transfer of a continent of natural resources—agricultural land, water, timber, mineral deposits—from public to private control. That transfer was crucial for the development of an economic system based largely on private incentives and market transactions. Legal policy at both the state and federal level regarding natural resource ownership and use has been the focus of work by Paul W. Gates, Willard Hurst, Harry Scheiber, and others. Those studies have generally been aimed at describing the nature and impact of governmental support for private economic activities. This paper is concerned with a somewhat different question—the timing and emergence of particular legal institutions (laws and governments). The framework for the study is that offered by Lance Davis and Douglass North inInstitutional Change and American Economic Growth. There they hypothesize that institutions develop in response to changing private needs or profit potentials: “It is the possibility of profits that cannot be captured within the existing arrangemental structure that leads to the formation of new (or the mutation of old) institutional arrangements.” Essentially the same model of institutional change is used by some American legal historians, notably Lawrence Friedman and Willard Hurst. They argue that the law can only be understood by examining the surrounding economic, political, and social conditions. Those conditions mold the law, and as they change, they force legal institutions to change. Friedman ties this view closely to the Davis-North model in A History of American Law, where he argues that competing interest groups are the primary determinants of the nature of the law at any one time. This view of legal institutional change is in sharp contrast to the common law tradition of legal history which sees the law as an autonomous institution passed on from generation to generation—an institution that molds the economic, political, and social inputs from society.
Foreign Interest Rates in American Financial Markets: A Revised Series of Dollar-Sterling Exchange Rates, 1833–1900
Authors: Perkins Edwin J.
Published: May 2010

This paper offers a revised series of nineteenth-century Anglo-American foreign exchange rates. The new series is based partly on the reinterpretation of data presented earlier by other scholars and partly on a recently rediscovered source of continuous information on sterling-dollar rates after 1869. The pioneering work in this area was done by Lance Davis and Jonathan Hughes. They published in 1960 a quarterly dollar-sterling exchange rate series (1835 to 1895) based on the actual prices paid for approximately 3,000 sterling bills by Nathan Trotter's Philadelphia-based metals importing firm.
The Returns to U.S. Imperialism, 1890–1929
Authors: Lebergott Stanley
Published: May 2010

The paper focuses on U.S. foreign investment. Part I notes its trivial impact on returns to U.S. capital and considers its greater importance for five industry groups. Part II reviews the economic advantages accruing to U.S. citizens from interventions in Panama and Cuba. Part III, the bulk of the paper, asks what impact U.S. foreign investment had on Latin American factor returns. It finds no evidence in the anti-imperialist literature for the assertions that such investment cut labor incomes or landowners’ capital gains in these nations. It suggests that a struggle between two groups of capitalists, native and foreign, was more central to the economic aspects of “imperialist” conflict.
Dutch Herring, Technology, and International Trade in the Seventeenth Century
Authors: Unger Richard W.
Published: May 2010

Herring exports to the Baltic from the Netherlands in the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries were closely related to exports of the previous year rather than to aggregate levels of trade. Dutch domination of the European market for salted herring in the seventeenth century thus cannot be explained by some external factor but rather by the internal nature of the Dutch fishery: by technology, organization, and the institutions which administered it. Regulation was designed to maximize rents but, as other fishermen gained the skills of their Dutch competitors, that strategy'turned into one which at first limited sales and then returns to the Dutch industry.

… O, wot een gulden Neeringh

en voedsel brengt ons toe de Conincklijke Heringh;

hoe menig duysend ziel bij dezen handel leeft en

winnende sijn brood God dank en eere gheeft.
Modulation equations for strongly nonlinear oscillations of an incompressible viscous drop
Authors: SMITH WARREN R.
Published: May 2010

Large-amplitude oscillations of incompressible viscous drops are studied at small capillary number. On the long viscous time scale, a formal perturbation scheme is developed to determine original modulation equations. These two ordinary differential equations comprise the averaged condition for conservation of energy and the averaged projection of the Navier–Stokes equations onto the vorticity vector. The modulation equations are applied to the free decay of axisymmetric oblate–prolate spheroid oscillations. On the long time scale, only the modulation equation for energy is required. In this example, the results compare well with linear viscous theory, weakly nonlinear inviscid theory and experimental observations. The new results show that previous experimental observations and numerical simulations are all manifestations of a single-valued relationship between dimensionless decay rate and amplitude. Moreover, if the amplitude of the oscillations does not exceed 30% of the drop radius, this decay rate may be approximated by a quadratic. The new results also show that, when the amplitude of the oscillations exceeds 20% of the drop radius, fluid in the inviscid bulk of the drop is undergoing abrupt changes in its acceleration in comparison to the acceleration during small-amplitude deformations.
Vortex-induced chaotic mixing in wavy channels
Authors: LEE WEI-KOON , TAYLOR P. H. , BORTHWICK A. G. L. , CHUENKHUM S.
Published: May 2010

Mixing is studied in open-flow channels with conformally mapped wavy-wall profiles, using a point-vortex model in two-dimensional irrotational, incompressible mean flow. Unsteady dynamics of the separation bubble induced by oscillatory motion of point vortices located in the trough region produces chaotic mixing in the Lagrangian sense. Significant mass exchange between passive tracer particles inside and outside of the separation bubble forms an efficient mixing region which evolves in size as the vortex moves in the unsteady potential flow. The dynamics closely resembles that obtained by previous authors from numerical solutions of the unsteady Navier–Stokes equations for oscillatory unidirectional flow in a wavy channel. Of the wavy channels considered, the skew-symmetric form is most efficient at promoting passive mixing. Diffusion via gridless random walks increases lateral particle dispersion significantly at the expense of longitudinal particle dispersion due to the opposing effect of mass exchange at the front and rear of the particle ensemble. Active mixing in the wavy channel reveals that the fractal nature of the unstable manifold plays a crucial role in singular enhancement of productivity. Hyperbolic dynamics dominate over non-hyperbolicity which is restricted to the vortex core region. The model is simple yet qualitatively accurate, making it a potential candidate for the study of a wide range of vortex-induced transport and mixing problems.
Transition behaviour of weak turbulent fountains
Authors: WILLIAMSON N. , ARMFIELD S. W. , LIN WENXIAN
Published: May 2010

Numerical simulations of fully turbulent weak fountain flow are used to provide direct evidence for the scaling behaviour of fountain flow over the Froude number range Fr = 0.1–2.1 and Reynolds number range Re = 20–3494. For very weak flow at Fr < 0.4, the flow mean penetration height, Zm, scales with Zm/R0 = A1Fr2/3 + A2Fr2/3 where R0 is the source radius. A1 and A2 are constants which quantify the separate effects of the radial acceleration of fountain fluid from the source (A1) and the backpressure from the surrounding intrusion, if present, on the upflow (A2). The evidence presented in this work suggests that the mechanisms for the two parts in the scaling of Zm scale with Fr2/3. The intrusion behaviour varies with the Reynolds number (Re) but there is no Re affect on the fountain penetration height. For Re < 250 the radial intrusion flow is subcritical and has different behaviour. For Fr between 0.4 and 2.1 the effect of source momentum flux increases and the flow structure changes to one where there is a coherent upflow and a cap region where the flow stagnates and then reverses. The two regions have separate scaling behaviour such that the overall height, through this transition range of Froude numbers, can be described by Zm/R=C1Fr2/3 + C2Fr2, where C1 and C2 are constants. Over this transition range the effect of source velocity profile is more significant than the Reynolds number effects and the effect of inlet turbulence is minor.
Earl Godwine's ship
Authors: Keynes Simon , Love Rosalind
Published: May 2010

The Vita Ædwardi regis, written probably in the late 1060s, is a major source for our knowledge of the reign of King Edward the Confessor (1042–66). The discovery by Henry Summerson of the complete text of a hitherto incomplete poem in the Vita Ædwardi, describing a ship given to the king by Earl Godwine, on the occasion of the king's accession in 1042, contributes significantly to our understanding of the poem itself, and bears at the same time on the relationship between the Encomium Emmae reginae and Vita Ædwardi, and between the Vita Ædwardi and the later eleventh- or early-twelfth-century source common to John of Worcester's Chronicle and to William of Malmesbury's Gesta regum Anglorum. These matters are pursued further, in a preliminary exploration of the wider significance of Dr Summerson's discovery.
Climate change and the Antarctic marine ecosystem: an essay on management implications
Authors: Trathan P.N. , Agnew D.
Published: May 2010

In this paper we review evidence for, and anticipated consequences of, climate change in Antarctic marine communities, examining the potential impacts on invertebrates and vertebrates alike and exploring plausible outcomes for species, with examples principally from the Antarctic literature. We suggest that industries with the greatest potential to aggravate climate change impacts on marine communities are marine capture fisheries. In the Southern Ocean, harvesting is governed under the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR). CCAMLR espouses an ecological management framework and so has the capacity to mitigate harvesting impacts such that they do not worsen impacts from climate change. We discuss some of the implications of climate change and advocate that CCAMLR address certain key issues if it is to fulfil its international obligations. It will be essential for CCAMLR to determine relative risks (uncertainties), impacts and timescales, of various processes consequent on climate change. Such risk assessments should be feasible with current knowledge and should provide a focus for future work. We believe it will be important to prioritize issues that reduce impacts and uncertainties by the greatest degree, and propose that future plans should involve shared responsibility (e.g. with SCAR etc.) for each of the risks described.
UNCERTAINTY, PROFIT AND ENTREPRENEURIAL ACTION: FRANK KNIGHT’S CONTRIBUTION RECONSIDERED
Authors: BROOKE GEOFFREY T. F.
Published: May 2010

Frank H. Knight held two different concepts of “uncertainty” in Risk, Uncertainty and Profit (1921). The first is based on the possibility of insuring against an outcome. This interpretation can be found in the existing literature on Knight’s work. The second refers to all instances where individuals have subjective expectations about the future. This second meaning forms the basis of Knight’s (1921) theory of profit and entrepreneurial action (Knight I). Knight I is limited; it provides no explanation of the incentive for entrepreneurial action. Knight’s neglected later theory of profit (1942) (Knight II) highlights the deficiencies of Knight I by offering a clear incentive for entrepreneurial action. The differences between the two theories of profit reflect the impact of incorporating historical time into economic analysis.
THE KEYNES-HARROD CONTROVERSY ON THE CLASSICAL THEORY OF THE RATE OF INTEREST AND THE INTERDEPENDENCE OF MARKETS
Authors: de BOYER des ROCHES JÉRÔME
Published: May 2010

The aggregation of budget constraints of enterprises and households allows us to throw a new light on the controversy between Keynes and Harrod concerning the classical theory of the rate of interest. It appears that the critique of the classical theory that Keynes formulated does not presuppose the liquidity preference theory; it is based on the multiplier theory. We show that this critique is logically founded and that it is based upon the absence of the labor market in the analysis of the interdependence between the markets for financial assets and for goods. Harrod did not comprehend it completely. This explains one lacuna in the model of the General Theory that Harrod proposed in 1937. We show that it lacks an equation and that the equilibrium (hence the rate of interest) is indeterminate, which is not the case in the 1937 article by Hicks. We conclude that if there is relevance in Keynes’s criticism of the classical theory, then a similar criticism can be directed at Keynes’s own theory.
Geochemistry of lavas from the 2005–2006 eruption at the East Pacific Rise, 9°46′N–9°56′N: Implications for ridge crest plumbing and decadal changes in magma chamber compositions
Authors: Goss A. R. , Perfit M. R. , Ridley W. I. , Rubin K. H. , Kamenov G. D. , Soule S. A. , Fundis A. , Fornari D. J.
Published: May 2010

Detailed mapping, sampling, and geochemical analyses of lava flows erupted from an ∼18 km long section of the northern East Pacific Rise (EPR) from 9°46′N to 9°56′N during 2005–2006 provide unique data pertaining to the short‐term thermochemical changes in a mid‐ocean ridge magmatic system. The 2005–2006 lavas are typical normal mid‐oceanic ridge basalt with strongly depleted incompatible trace element patterns with marked negative Sr and Eu/Eu* anomalies and are slightly more evolved than lavas erupted in 1991–1992 at the same location on the EPR. Spatial geochemical differences show that lavas from the northern and southern limits of the 2005–2006 eruption are more evolved than those erupted in the central portion of the fissure system. Similar spatial patterns observed in 1991–1992 lavas suggest geochemical gradients are preserved over decadal time scales. Products of northern axial and off‐axis fissure eruptions are consistent with the eruption of cooler, more fractionated lavas that also record a parental melt component not observed in the main suite of 2005–2006 lavas. Radiogenic isotopic ratios for 2005–2006 lavas fall within larger isotopic fields defined for young axial lavas from 9°N to 10°N EPR, including those from the 1991–1992 eruption. Geochemical data from the 2005–2006 eruption are consistent with an invariable mantle source over the spatial extent of the eruption and petrogenetic processes (e.g., fractional crystallization and magma mixing) operating within the crystal mush zone and axial magma chamber (AMC) before and during the 13 year repose period. Geochemical modeling suggests that the 2005–2006 lavas represent differentiated residual liquids from the 1991–1992 eruption that were modified by melts added from deeper within the crust and that the eruption was not initiated by the injection of hotter, more primitive basalt directly into the AMC. Rather, the eruption was driven by AMC pressurization from persistent or episodic addition of more evolved magma from the crystal mush zone into the overlying subridge AMC during the period between the two eruptions. Heat balance calculations of a hydrothermally cooled AMC support this model and show that continual addition of melt from the mush zone was required to maintain a sizable AMC over this time interval.
A search for dayside geomagnetic Pi2 pulsations in the CHAMP low‐Earth‐orbit data
Authors: Sutcliffe P. R. , Lühr H.
Published: May 2010

Pi2 pulsations are typically observed at night and often during local daytime at low‐latitude ground stations. Their daytime occurrence is most common and clearest near the dip equator; however, daytime Pi2s are regularly observed at low‐latitude ground stations away from the dip equator. In contrast, a study utilizing satellite data at low latitudes within the plasmasphere could find no evidence for dayside Pi2s. Consequently, in this investigation we used high‐resolution vector magnetometer data from the CHAMP satellite to carry out a search for daytime Pi2 pulsations in the F region ionosphere. We confirm that nighttime Pi2s are observed simultaneously on CHAMP and at low‐latitude ground stations and that their characteristics are consistent with a cavity mode resonance. However, our comparisons of daytime Pi2 pulsation events identified in ground station data with data from CHAMP clearly demonstrate that Pi2s in the dayside hemisphere differ from their nighttime counterparts. Specifically, we find no convincing evidence of their occurrence in CHAMP data. Our results suggest that the generation mechanism for daytime Pi2s may be similar to the mechanisms that other authors have proposed to explain sudden impulses and DP2 current systems. We propose a model in which the electric field imprinted by the field‐aligned currents connected to the substorm current wedge is distributed globally in the atmospheric waveguide. Toroidal currents flowing on the dayside between ionosphere and ground generate magnetic fields that are confined to the waveguide. As a consequence, no Pi2‐related magnetic signals can be detected in the topside ionosphere.