bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Investigating the Effects of Extreme Weather and their Interactions with Farm Management on Crop Yields in the Netherlands
Authors: van der Veer Sinne , Hamed Raed , Karabiyik Hande , Roskam Jamal
Published: March 2024

Recent studies that address the impacts of extreme weather on crop yields, are predominantly focused on expansive geographical scales and generally ignore the role of management practices in modulating the dynamics of weather-crop sensitivities. In our study, a unique dataset containing data from the Dutch Minerals Policy Monitoring Program and the Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) is used to explore the relationship between extreme weather and crop yields at farm level in the Netherlands. The dataset consists of unbalanced panel data from the years 2006 to 2021 including an average of about 1,500 farms. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is used to reflect weather anomalies, both extreme wet and dry conditions. The climatological variables necessary to compute the SPEI are estimated at field-level using data gathered by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute from 277 precipitation stations and 18 climate stations. In total, ten types of crops are covered and the role of soil type, irrigation and nutrient application in modulating the relationship between extreme weather and crops is elucidated. Distinction is made between drought and excessive precipitation during the planting-, growing- and harvesting period. The results show substantial impacts from drought during the growing- and harvesting period and excessive precipitation during the planting- and growing period. Severe droughts show statistically significant (p≤0.05) reductions in yield for nine crops, and lead to yield reductions ranging from 10 to 25 percent when only occurring during the growing period. Meanwhile, eight crops show statistically significant (p≤0.05) reductions in yield due to severe precipitation excess, with reductions ranging from 5 to 20 percent from excessive precipitation during the planting period. Soils such as sand or loess amplify the negative impact of drought on crop yield, while softening the impact of excessive precipitation. Furthermore, irrigation and nutrient application (both nitrogen and phosphate) are shown to moderately decrease the impact of extreme weather on crop yield, with substantial differences depending on crop type and the period in which the extreme weather event occurred. The findings of this study provide valuable insights to guide local adaptation priorities which are critical given the projected increase in the intensity and frequency of extreme weather under climate change.
Seismic while drilling with a diamond drill bit in project DIVE DT-1B borehole in the Ivrea-Verbano Zone (Western Alps, Italy)
Authors: Trabi Bernd , Greenwood Andrew , Bleibinhaus Florian
Published: March 2024

A unique Seismic While Drilling (SWD) experiment, whereby a diamond coring drill rig as the seismic source has been conducted in the Val d’Ossola, Western Alps, Italy. For the SWD experiment 64 3C-sensors are employed in an array at the surface and the vibrational action of coring the rock acts as an active seismic source within the borehole. The maximum offset of the sensor array is 480 m with non-uniform spacing that increases with distance. The drilling operation took place from early October until mid-December 2022 and reached a depth of approximately 580 m. The seismic sensors recorded at a sampling rate of 1 ms, which is more than sufficient for an expected frequency of up to 200 Hz. The proposed SWD experiment is to evaluate the potential and limitations of the SWD method for diamond core drilling commonly utilized in scientific drilling projects with a focus on fundamental developments of the methodology and data processing techniques. Ideally the drill-bit seismic record should produce a seismic image around the bore hole and ahead of the drill bit. First it is important to determine if a signal can be detected, and to what depth, from a diamond core drill bit. In contrast to percussion or reverse circulation drilling, the diamond core drilling method produces a very weak signal. The seismic data is also heavily contaminated by coherent and random noises generated at the drill site, including rig engines, generators and mud-pumps, vehicles, and the movement of equipment. Separation of theses coherent noises using radon transform has thus far failed and other wavefield separation methods are investigated. Using seismic interferometric methods for unknown source positions, we aim to detect the weak signal at known drill bit positions. This is promising especially at drilling depths where the drill-rig and drill-bit wave-fields are spatial or temporal separated from each other, due to their different origins and velocities. Interferograms are obtained using the cross-coherence method, which is applied to the recorded passive seismic data. These are computed from 30sec time windows of the continuous recordings and then stacked into the final interferogram to increase the signal-to-noise ratio. Instead of migration summation, semblance is measured for the interferometric migration process. For the migration process, a constant velocity model is sufficient in this hard-rock environment. The major noise sources that we image are the vibrations of the drill rig and power generator, which appear to mask the weaker signal from the drill bit. In an ongoing second experiment, we utilize grid power, reducing the noise sources to the mud-pumps, rotating string, and rig.
Useful digital soil mapping products for farmers 
Authors: Kellermann Liv , Tanner Simon , Oechslin Stefan , Nussbaum Madlene , Burgos Stéphane
Published: March 2024

In large parts of Switzerland, there are up to the present day no soil maps in a more precise scale than 1:25’000. In 2020 the Swiss government adopted a soil strategy to promote soil mapping and the required tools and guidelines. Furthermore, authorities are legally obligated to delineate areas for the high-quality arable land inventory. In the future, soil maps will be available at high resolution for increasingly large areas. However, farmers are not used to work with this type of soil information as it was so far not available and data products are unknown.In a pilot study of 1’000 ha in the canton of Bern a large number of soil properties have been mapped at high resolution using digital soil mapping techniques based on 1’500 newly surveyed observations. The content of the maps ranges from continuous or classified basic soil properties such as texture or soil organic matter content to aggregated soil properties such as water storage capacity. From these baseline maps certain applications and examples were assessed for specific agricultural use and the corresponding maps were discussed with local farmers. The examples include options for precision farming, proposals for new sampling sites for the legally required soil survey, the generation of more meaningful routine measurements and planning bases for irrigation systems at regional scale. Feedback was diverse and interest in soil maps differs largely according to farm management, specialization and digital affinity. Our study shows the importance of stakeholder involvement and training as well as familiarization of the farmers with digital soil maps.
Comparing crop calendars: phenology derived from Sentinel-2 data vs official data: The case of cereals in Andalusia.
Authors: García Pérez Miguel Angel , Caparros-Santiago Jose A. , Rodriguez-Galiano Victor
Published: March 2024

Obtaining specific field calendars for each crop is very useful information for farmers and public administration to understand and manage harvests. This information can be collected manually from each farm, but this approach is highly time and money consuming. It is possible to acquire it more efficiently using phenology estimates obtained through remote sensing. Common Agrarian Policy (CAP) and Geographical Information System of the Common Agrarian Policy (GISCAP) data were used to know the location of principal cereal plots in Andalusia, Spain. It included common wheat, durum wheat, triticale, oat, rye, barley, sorghum, maize and rice.  Several phenometrics from Sentinel-2 were obtained: start of the season (SOS), middle of the season (MOS), length of the season (LOS) and end of the season (EOS). This dataset was correlated and compared with sowing and harvesting data collected by the Spanish government.  The results showed a high correlation between SOS and sowing and between EOS and harvest for most of the studied crops.Sowing for common wheat, durum wheat, triticale, oat, rye, and barley took place between October and December according to government calendars, while SOS generally started one month later, between November and January. However, in these crops, harvest and EOS occurred simultaneously, mostly in June. In the case of sorghum, maize and rice, which are summer cereals, their phenometrics differed from the others. Sowing and SOS for sorghum mostly occurred in April and March, and harvest and EOS in September and October, in typically at the same time. Maize sowing took place in March, SOS in April, and harvest and EOS in September. Finally, rice sowing occurred in May, SOS in June, harvest in October and EOS in November. This study shows that obtaining accurate crop calendars from Sentinel-2 phenological trajectories is feasible, providing valuable information for farmers and public administrations.
Wind Noise Reduction System models state of the art assessment and study of their respective optimal field of application
Authors: Lucas Jade , Bednarowicz Clément
Published: March 2024

Within the International Monitoring System Infrasound Stations, Wind Noise reduction Systems (WNRS) help to improve the infrasound signal quality and analysis by eliminating local atmospheric noise. A standardized system has been designed for the monitoring of nuclear explosions, with a frequency range of interest of 0.1Hz to 10Hz.This standardized system, a pipe-array rosette, has many options for adaptation with different pipe length, material, and geometry. The type of air inlet and the use or not of primary manifolds will change WNRS characteristics.  All these options of adaptation, give the possibilities to turn the WNRS into tailor-made flexible systems which can be further customized according to their use.Other types of WNRS have been developed and tested. Enviroearth offers to compare and assess their particular performances : considering their different characteristics, those distinct WNRS model could be practical and optimal for specific applications. By modifying the geometry and characteristics of a WNRS, frequency at which maximum noise reduction is reached can be changed. Therefore, adapted WNRS can be used in measurement stations to monitor natural events (Seismic, Storm, hurricane …) which data can be used for early warning and/or climate change adaptation systems.
A 3 Martian Year climatology of aerosols with ExoMars TGO-NOMAD: seasonal cycles and new insights
Authors: Liuzzi Giuliano , Villanueva Geronimo , Aoki Shohei , Trompet Loic , Daerden Frank , Neary Lori , Viscardy Sebastien , Faggi Sara , Stone Shane W. , Thomas Ian , Patel Manish , Vandaele Ann Carine
Published: March 2024

The Nadir and Occultation for MArs Discovery (NOMAD) spectrometer has been collecting Mars observations since 2018, providing a massive amount of information regarding its atmospheric composition, its vertical structure and bridging the gap between the previous knowledge of the lower atmosphere and the data from other missions (e.g., MAVEN) regarding atmospheric escape. The capability of the Solar Occultation (SO) channel to map the vertical structure of the atmosphere with a very high (>1000) signal-to-noise ratio, at a very high spectral resolution (>17000) and a high vertical sampling (0.5 to 2 km) is valuable in many contexts, ranging from the search for trace species in the lower atmosphere (10 to 40 km) to mapping the isotopic composition of the main atmospheric constituents (H2O, CO2, CO) or exploring the vertical structure of dust, water ice and CO2 ice clouds.Aerosols are some of the main drivers of the Martian climate, and the study of their spatial distribution and microphysical properties can advance our knowledge of their impact on the climate of the planet and on their formation and dynamics. This work will show the extension of previous investigations focused on dust, water ice and CO2 ice using NOMAD data, by presenting the mapping of these atmospheric components on a global scale over 3 Martian Years (MY34 Ls 160 to MY37 Ls 170). The acquisition by NOMAD of several diffraction orders during a single occultation allows in fact to obtain spectrally broad information that can be used to map dust and water ice vertical distributions and particle sizes. The information content of NOMAD data about particle sizes of water ice has been demonstrated to be particularly high and to give important information about the nucleation processes of water ice. NOMAD data can also be used to look for CO2 ice by combining broad spectral information with localized CO2 ice features at 3600 and 3710 cm-1, which are well identifiable in the NOMAD spectra.Besides presenting the climatology of aerosols, we will illustrate specific features occurring during the Martian Year and their repeatability; more specifically, we will look into the differences between MY 34, characterized by a Global Dust Storm, and following years, to highlight the impact of dust-induced heating over cloud formation. We will also give some insights into CO2 ice cloud formation, which was confirmed to be surprisingly heterogeneous compared to results obtained before TGO operations.
µID-TIMS: A Focused Ion Beam (FIB)–Femtosecond (Fs) Laser Microsampling Protocol for Spatially Resolved High-Precision Zircon Geochronology 
Authors: Markovic Sava , Wotzlaw Jörn-Frederik , Szymanowski Dawid , Chelle-Michou Cyril
Published: March 2024

High-precision (CA-ID-TIMS) U-Pb geochronology of individual growth zones of zircon has been a long-awaited milestone in the geochronological community. Focused ion beam (FIB) and femtosecond (fs) laser machining monitored in real time by CL-SEM both show promise as techniques for physical extraction of target zircon domains in preparation for spatially resolved ID-TIMS dating. In this contribution, we test a novel laboratory protocol for zircon microsampling using an in-house multi-ion plasma (Ar-Xe) FIB and fs laser, and showcase first µID-TIMS zircon dates. We first examine the chemical impacts of protective metal coatings (Cr, Pt-Pd and C) used for ion milling on the U-Pb systematics of a low-Pb and a low-U zircon. We then present high-resolution transmission electron microscope (TEM) images of a zircon surface irradiated by ion and fs laser beams to show the contrasting extent of structural damage induced by the two techniques at standard microsampling conditions. Potential Pb-loss/U-gain in the nanometer-wide ion damaged layer in zircon is mapped by atom probe tomography (APT). Subsequently, we showcase the FIB workflow for extracting a number of microsamples of the Mud Tank and GZ-7 reference zircon spanning the sizes expected in future applications using natural zircon. We present first results of spatially resolved high resolution (µID-TIMS) dating of the Mud Tank and GZ-7 microsamples, and explore the achieved analytical accuracy and precision. Finally, we discuss the feasibility of conducting a µID-TIMS study on natural zircon given zircon features (i.e., age, U content, and volume of target domain) and research objective, and discuss benefits and limits to our approach.
The Northeast Water Polynya, Greenland; Climatology, Atmospheric Forcing and Ocean Response
Authors: Bennett Miriam , Renfrew Ian , Stevens David , Moore Kent
Published: March 2024

The Northeast Water Polynya is a significant annually recurring summertime Arctic polynya, located off the coast of Northeast Greenland. It is important for marine wildlife and affects local atmospheric and oceanic processes. In this study, over 40 years of observational and reanalysis products (ERA5 and ORAS5) are analysed to characterise the polynya's climatology and ascertain forcing mechanisms. The Northeast Water Polynya has high spatiotemporal variability; its location, size and structure vary interannually, and the period for which it is open is changing. We show this variability is largely driven by atmospheric forcing. The polynya extent is determined by the direction of the near-surface flow regime, and the relative locations of high and low sea-level pressure centers over the region. The surface conditions also impact the oceanic water column, which has a strong seasonal cycle in potential temperature and salinity, the amplitude of which decreases with depth. The ocean reanalyses also show a significant warming trend at all depths and a freshening near the surface consistent with greater ice melt, but salinification at lower depths (~ 200 m). As the Arctic region changes due to anthropogenic forcing, the sea-ice edge is migrating northwards and the Northeast Water Polynya is generally opening earlier and closing later in the year. This could have significant implications for both the atmosphere and ocean in this complex and rapidly changing environment.
Implications for the strength of the Earth’s middle crust from novel experiments on natural fine-grained granitoid rocks 
Authors: Nevskaya Natalia , Berger Alfons , Stünitz Holger , Zhan Weijia , Plümper Oliver , Ohl Marcus , Herwegh Marco
Published: March 2024

To comprehend the rheology of the Earth's crust and the relevant rock properties, one key approach is to deform rocks and minerals at elevated pressures and temperatures and then extrapolate the measured stress and strain rate values to natural conditions using constitutive equations. Laboratory experiments are mostly conducted on monomineralic rocks, with quartz being considered as the weakest constituent of the middle continental crust. However, field observations suggest that this is an oversimplification, and polymineralic fault rocks may be weaker than monomineralic quartz rocks. This study presents the first experiments on fine-grained, solid, natural rock samples, containing their natural homogeneities and inhomogeneities, demonstrating that granitoid rocks may be weaker than quartz at mid-crustal conditions. It also highlights the importance of pre-existing faults and polymineralic fine-grained zones for strain localisation and proposes values for extrapolation to natural conditions and their use in numerical models of the deformation of the granitoid crust.Cylindrical granitoid ultramylonite samples, composed of qtz + ab + K-fsp + bt + ep, with grain sizes of 125-15 μm are deformed in a Grigg’s type apparatus at T=650°C, confining P=1.2 GPa, strain rates=10-3 to 10-5s-1, and 0.2 wt% H2O added. Mechanical data are combined with light microscope, SEM, TEM, and quantitative image analysis to connect microstructures with stress and strain evolution. We show that polymineralic granitoid rocks deform through other mechanisms than monomineralic quartz aggregates at pressure and temperature conditions characteristic for the middle crust: Ultra-fine grain size reduction down to
Laser Ablation – Cavity Ring Down Spectrometry, a new method for the in-situ analysis of δ13C of organic and inorganic carbonates
Authors: Stremtan Ciprian , Wozniak Jan , Puscas Cristina Montana , Tamas Tudor
Published: March 2024

Elemental analyzers (EA) are the go-to sample introduction instrument for light stable isotope analyses of solid materials. Sample preparation is labor intensive and time consuming, with high associated consumable and equipment cost. Sample recovery is impossible in case of malfunctioning, i.e., no repeat analysis when sample amount is restricted.In the same way, Laser ablation (LA) is traditionally considered a sample introduction technique for Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP MS) where plasma-based instrumentation will ionize and measure with a high degree of accuracy and precision the aerosol generated during the ablation process.In this contribution we present an innovative method of measuring C stable isotopic ratios of carbonates by hyphening two instruments that are not usually found in the same lab. We coupled a laser ablation system (Teledyne Photon Machines Fusions CO2) equipped with a specially designed ablation chamber (Terra Analitic isoScell Δ100) to a Cavity Ring Down Spectrometer (Picarro G2201-i) to perform spatially resolved, highly accurate and precise measurements of both inorganic (stalagmite) and bioaccumulated (freshwater bivalve) carbonate samples. This novel system requires minimal sample preparation, allows for in-situ sequential and repeat sampling, all while eliminating the need to individually prepare samples.
Emergence of strong trends in humid heat intensity and duration in recent decades over South Asia
Authors: Singh Jitendra , Fischer Erich , Singh Deepti , Sippel Sebastian
Published: March 2024

The far-reaching impacts of humid heat extremes on public health and ecosystems underscore a necessity for a comprehensive investigation. South Asia is a global hotspot where humid heat reaches some of  the highest levels globally in a densely populated region, and climatologically highly interesting since temperatures typically peak in the pre-monsoon period, and humid heat only several weeks later during the monsoon period. This study examines the historical trends in humid heat extremes, and their underlying drivers and mechanisms during the pre-monsoon (Mar-May) and monsoon (June-September) seasons over South Asia. Our findings reveal a notable surge in the warming trends of humid heat extremes since 2000, exhibiting a rate exceeding twice that of observed long-term trends since 1950 in the monsoon season across South Asia. During the pre-monsoon season, short-term trends (trends since 2000) exhibit diverse regional patterns, indicating cooler heat extremes in western South Asia, while the rest of the region experiences increasing trends in heat extremes. This contrasts with the consistent and regionally coherent long-term warming trends in humid extremes since 1950 across South Asia. We further show that the seasonal evolution of daily maximum wet-bulb temperature in South Asia is closely linked with humidity levels, indicating that the occurrence of high humidity events governs the timing of humid heat extremes. During the monsoon season, higher humidity in Southern and Central South Asia occurs ~2 weeks earlier since 2000 compared to the climatological period (1950-1979). This elevated humidity aligns with several ℃ higher temperatures occurring earlier in the season, intensifying humid heat extremes. In western South Asia, changing humidity trends notably impact humid heat extremes: rising trends intensify them during the monsoon season, while declining trends cool pre-monsoon extremes. Further, we show that precipitation variability modulates humidity levels and, thereby, the intensity of humid heat extremes over western South Asia. Moreover, our study notes a significant increase in the duration of monsoon season humid heat extremes, expanding from ~2 days in the 1950s to several weeks in recent decades across South Asia. This prolonged and sustained occurrence is predominantly associated with consistent and high humidity levels. The emergence of such strong trends emphasizes the need to expedite adaptation and mitigation measures to align with the substantial escalation in humid heat intensity and duration.
Science Sisters: Interviews with diverse role models on career paths and academic life
Authors: Cano Marina , van Zelst Iris , Shivkumar Hinna
Published: March 2024

Science Sisters is a YouTube interview series and podcast hosted by Dr. Iris van Zelst. Lighthearted in tone, it explores different career paths, academic life, and science communication in the planetary and geosciences. The majority of the guests on the episodes are female and/or non-white to show a diverse range of role models in STEM and celebrate women in science. Together with the guest, Iris goes into the highs and lows of being a researcher and discusses issues in academia, such as the lack of permanent jobs in science and sexism. So far, two seasons of Science Sisters have been produced with topics including ethical fieldwork, switching careers, science communication, postdoc life, leadership, women in science, job applications, postdoc hopping, outreach, publishing, feeling incompetent, astronaut training, toxic academia, and how to build a research group.
Here, we present the project and some of the choicest nuggets of wisdom from the guests about academic life and careers. We also discuss the production phase of the series, highlighting for instance the considerations that go into selecting topics and guests, and the postproduction phase of editing and uploading the videos.
In addition, we present how we use Science Sisters as a way to start conversations in our own institutes. We organise a parallel seminar series where we watch the premieres of the episodes live on YouTube and afterwards have a discussion on the episode topic with the episode guest attending online. This has resulted in a greater understanding of each other and more cohesion within the institute. Early career scientists in particular say that Science Sisters is extremely useful to learn about life as a researcher and they enjoy the chatty, entertaining quality of the interviews.
Recent climate change in Iceland
Authors: Björnsson Halldór , Ólafsdóttir Kristín , Aðalgeirsdóttir Guðfinna
Published: March 2024

The climate in Iceland has warmed by about 1°C per century since the start of the 20th century. The warming has been intermittent with strong decadal variablility but the last two decades stand out as the warmest since continuous measurements began in the 19th century. Changes in precipitation, snow fraction and extreme precipitation have also occurred. The warming has impacted glaciers which have lost 16% of their mass and 19% of their area since the early 20th century. Several small glaciers have vanished, new pro-glacial lakes have formed and significant changes have occurred in the drainage system from some glaciers. The iso-static rebound resulting from the ice mass loss is widespread and exceeds 1 cm per year on the southeastern shore where it is highest. The warming has generally increased the productivity of plants leading to observed greening.The recently published Climate Change Impact Assessment for Iceland, the fourth since the start of this century concluded that Climate Change is having a strong impact on physical and biological systems, with increasing societal impacts, especially with increasing risks associated with natural hazards such as flash floods, landslides, subglacial eruptions, and coastal flooding.
FORMATION - Full cOveRage, Multi-scAle and multi-sensor geomorphological map: a practical tool for TerrItOrial planning and landslide analysis
Authors: Raspini Federico , Confuorto Pierluigi , Barbadori Francesco , Pelacani Samuel
Published: March 2024

The FORMATION project aims at fostering the implementation of new approaches for the description of geomorphological processes and representation of landforms, whose spatial distribution represents the most immediate tool to detect areas affected by geological risks, such as landslides.The FORMATION project aims to fill this gap, integrating emerging remote sensing techniques into the new Italian guidelines for the geomorphological mapping provided by ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale in Italian, Italian Institute for the environmental protection and research). The main driver of the FORMATION project is the design of new paradigms for geomorphological mapping, where outcomes of traditional geomorphological survey and land degradation models, coupled with multi-band satellite analysis and multi-platform LiDAR and UAV data are convoyed within GIS (Geographic Information System) environment for the classification of landforms and the creation of a multi-scale, digital geomorphological map.Databases, models, tools and methods will be presented and discussed with prototype implementations at pilot Italian cases in the Alps and Apennines, which share common pressing challenges on the environment, such as gravitational and running water-based processes causing several damages with a direct implication on human life and millions of euros spent in environmental remediation. Target basins have been selected to cover different geological, geomorphological and climatic settings and to demonstrate the effectiveness and replicability of the proposed methodology.Here we present preliminary results for the Val d’Orcia, an area in Central Tuscany (Italy) with a long history of landslides and erosive processes. We exploited outputs provided by interferometric processing of Sentinel-1 data to create ground deformation maps used to scan wide areas, flag unstable zones and support the definition of priorities starting from the situations deemed to be most urgent. A database of active moving areas has been created to support further activities of the project, including field surveys, further investigation with landscape investigations and modeling.Activities performed has been funded by MUR (Ministry of University in Italy) within the PRIN 2022 call Directive Decree n. 104 del 02/02/2022, Codice Progetto MUR 2022C2XPK7, “Full cOveRage, Multi-scAle and multi-sensor geomorphological map: a practical tool for TerrItOrial plaNning - FORMATION”- CUP B53D23007000006, that is included in within the activities funded by European Union (Next Generation EU).
Forecasting of Precipitation-Induced Landslides Using Atmospheric Rivers: Opportunities and Challenges
Authors: Vallejo-Bernal Sara M. , Luna Lisa , Marwan Norbert , Kurths Jürgen
Published: March 2024

Landslides are particularly costly disasters, causing about 4,500 fatalities and US$20 billion in damages worldwide each year. In Western North America, where intense and frequent precipitation events interact with complex topography and steep slopes, precipitation-induced landslides (PILs) are a serious geological hazard. Recently, it has been revealed that the majority of PILs in the region are triggered by precipitation from atmospheric rivers (ARs), transient channels of intense water vapor flux in the troposphere. However, the synoptic conditions differentiating landslide-triggering and non-triggering ARs remain unknown. In this study, we explore opportunities for improved landslide forecasting in Western North America using catalogs of land-falling ARs and PILs, along with ERA5 climatological data, from 1996 to 2018. First, we employ event synchronization, a non-linear measure specially tailored for event series analysis, to identify landslide-triggering ARs. Based on the AR-strength scale, which ranks ARs in levels from 1 to 5, we further characterize landslide-triggering ARs in terms of intensity and persistence. Subsequently, we spatially resolve the conditional probability of PIL occurrence given the detection of AR-attributed precipitation in the antecedent week, revealing the contribution of each AR level. Lastly, using hourly estimates of integrated water vapour transport, geopotential height, and precipitation at 0.25° spatial resolution, we differentiate the spatio-temporal evolution of synoptic conditions preceding landslide-triggering and non-landslide triggering ARs. Our results constitute a first, fundamental, and necessary step toward AR-based landslide forecasts, contributing crucial insights to improve forecasting accuracy at the short and early medium-range (1–7 days).
Control of subpar interglacial CO2 levels on the emergence of 100-kyr glacial cycles during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition
Authors: Zhang Xu , Stap Lennert B. , Du Jinlong , Nuber Sophie
Published: March 2024

The evolution of Earth’s climate during the Quaternary is characterized by glacial cycles with the periodic waxing and waning of large ice sheets most notably in the Northern Hemisphere. A fundamental transition in Earth climate occurred between 1250 and 650 kyr ago (ka) as the dominant glacial-interglacial variability shifted from ~40 to ~100-kyr cycles with more intense glacial climate. This is known as the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). The absence of appreciable change in the Milankovitch astronomical climate forcings during the MPT indicates that its occurrence might be a result of self-perpetuating climate feedback processes which would have been stimulated at ~900ka (i.e. Marine Isotope Stage 25-22) when global ice volume (e.g. Elderfield et al., 2012, Ford & Raymo, 2020), glacial ocean circulation (e.g. Pena &Goldstein 2014; Kim et al., 2021), deep ocean carbon reservoir (e.g. Lear et al., 2016; Farmer et al., 2019) and atmospheric CO2 levels (e.g. Hoenish et al., 2009; Chalk et al., 2017; Yamamoto et al., 2022) coherently experienced stepwise changes to post-MPT like glacial states from MIS22 onwards. Nevertheless, the triggering mechanism remains enigmatic because of the intertwined nature of these internal processes which precludes the disentanglement into their individual roles in the onset of post-MPT glacial ice volume and the pCO2 level at MIS22. In this study, applying a combined climate – ice sheet – marine biogeochemical modeling approach, we investigate unidirectional impacts of changes in either atmospheric CO2 levels or northern hemisphere ice sheet (NHIS) volume on the other in transient simulations spanning two successive obliquity cycles. Our results show that the emergence of a 100-kyr glacial cycle is controlled by the interglacial rather than glacial CO2 levels. A lower glacial CO2 levels does increase NHIS volume and hence intensify the glacial climate. But only when the interglacial CO2 levels are below a threshold (~250ppm in our model) at the first obliquity peak, the developed glacial NHISs can skip the summer insolation maximum and reach a larger volume in the following glaciation, heralding the onset of 100-kyr glacial cycles. Meanwhile, the increased glacial NHISs, as a positive climate feedback process, promote atmospheric CO2 absorption in the subpolar North Atlantic via the strengthened upper cell of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. This, coupled with the enhanced formation of Antarctic Bottom Water, eventually sequesters the absorbed carbon in the North Pacific, further lowering glacial CO2 levels. Consistent with available proxy records, our results thus reconcile previously competing hypotheses for the occurrence of the MPT, providing a new and coherent dynamic framework accounting for the emergence of 100-kyr glacial cycles.
Modelling the effusive phase of the 1944’s Vesuvio eruption using VLAVA
Authors: Macedonio Giovanni , Cordrie Louise , Costa Antonio , Giudicepietro Flora , Obrizzo Francesco , Cubellis Elena , Bellucci Sessa Eliana
Published: March 2024

The eruption of Vesuvio in 1944 commenced on the 18th of March and concluded on the 29th, encompassing both eruptive and seismic activities. After that date the activity decreased and has continued with low intensity until April 7, when the eruption was declared over, the crater was completely obstructed and the closed conduit period of the volcano began, which has lasted until now. During the paroxysm, the volcano underwent four distinct phases: effusive, lava fountaining, mixed explosions, and explosive events. In the initial phase (from the 18th to the 21st), the resulting lava field attained a total volume of 10^6 m^3 and a length of 5.6 km, distributed across various flows. The recent acquisition of a digitized pre-eruption Digital Elevation Model (DEM) for the region facilitates a more accurate estimation of the thickness of the final lava field by comparing it to post-eruptive LIDAR DEM data. Utilizing VLAVA, a simulation code designed for modeling lava flow propagation over complex topography with temperature-dependent viscosity, accurate modeling of the effusive phase has been achieved. These simulations contribute to a better characterization of the 1944 Vesuvius lava flow emplacement and a deeper understanding of lava flow rates from multiple vents and the subsequent lava propagation dynamics.
Snow load climatology for design working lives of the greenhouse structures in Croatia
Authors: Cindric Kalin Ksenija , Lukacevic Ivan , Nimac irena , Percec Tadic Melita
Published: March 2024

The climatic loads should be considered in the structural design and construction of the greenhouses to ensure their overall stability and durability. The snow load (SL), defined as the weight of snow on a surface area per square meter, is particularly important because it can cause structure collapse and consequently significant economic damages. Characteristic snow load for different constructions is usually 50 years, however, greenhouse structures are usually designed for shorter periods. The classification and design of greenhouses are based on the European standard EN 13031–1 which also provides the procedure for snow load adjustments to appropriate return values. In this study, characteristic snow loads are analysed for Croatia. First, the general climatology of maximum snow load is prepared according to snow depth data from 117 stations across the country covering the period from 1968 to 2020. The results revealed four main climate snow regions in Croatia: mainland, mountainous, coastal hinterland, and Adriatic. The trend analysis showed a decreasing trend in maximum snow load data for the highest elevation stations, while a slight increase was detected for central continental and middle Adriatic areas, however, the trend is statistically significant only at two stations in the highlands. For calculating the characteristic snow load, the value associated with a 50-year return period, the Gumbel distribution was used. Non-stationarity of snow load data was tested by the likelihood ratio method which revealed no significant changes in the Gumbel distribution parameters. This led to the conclusion that a stationary model is sufficient to describe data at most stations. Besides the characteristic SL, the return values of maximum SL associated with the return periods of 5, 10, 15 and 50 years were estimated. Moving to the engineering perspective, the adjustment factors for the design of greenhouse structures given in the standard are also discussed.
Wave run-up detection at the Norwegian coast
Authors: Kalisch Henrik , Blandfort Daniel , Buckley Marc , Bödewadt Jan , Bjørnestad Maria , Lagona Francesco , Derriey Alexandre , Björqvist Jan-Victor , Horstmann Jochen
Published: March 2024

We are interested in the interaction of ocean waves with steep coastal topography such as encountered in some coastal profiles for example in the United States, New Zealand and Norway. In previous works, it has been shown that under such conditions, shoaling ocean waves may experience significant amplification in the last 50 to 100 meters before they run up on the shore, leading to potentially hazardous run-up events even under relatively calm conditions. In the present work, we are reporting on a remotely accessible observational system which was deployed on the Norwegian Coast near the city of Haugesund. We report on the data analysis and statistical correlation of large run-up events with certain sea states and weather conditions.References:[1] Bjørnestad, M. and Kalisch, H., 2020. Extreme wave runup on a steep coastal profile. AIP Advances, 10(10).[2] Kalisch, H., Lagona, F. and Roeber, V., 2023. Sudden wave flooding on steep rock shores: a clear but hidden danger. Natural Hazards, pp.1-21.  
Low-effort stabilization for compressible Euler-Equations for volcanic plume simulation
Authors: Behrens Joern , Bänsch Michel
Published: March 2024

A stabilization method for a discontinuous Galerkin discretization of the compressible Euler equations is presented, based on the idea of balancing the equations discretely. This method is very cost efficient with regards to computational effort while still effective in stabilizing the discrete numerical scheme. We apply the new numerical scheme to standard test cases as well as to a simplified volcanic plume model within an adaptive mesh refinement simulation framework. Comparisons with different adaptive mesh refinement environments (i.e. amatos and deal.II) are perfomed and demonstrate the applicability in particular in triangular adaptive meshes. Tests show that this method generates reliable and computationally efficient results.
Evaluation of opportunities to characterize and monitor moisture in the unsaturated zone above the Western Mountain Aquifer
Authors: Dietrich Peter , Maier Ulrich , Kavousi Alireza , Rieß Anna , Engelhardt Irina , Sauter Martin
Published: March 2024

The GRaCCE project (Groundwater Recharge and Climate Change Effects - Quantification of resilience of water resources in carbonate aquifers to drought conditions) aims to develop process-based integrated and data-driven surrogate methods for determining groundwater recharge and predicting droughts in order to support water management in semi-arid regions such as Israel, Palestine and Jordan. Previous studies have shown that the thick vadose zones (several hundred meters) prevalent in the region can be relevant for water management as long-term reservoirs and, if considered as a dynamic water resource, can contribute to mitigating supply shortages during long-term droughts. In order to evaluate this water resource, it is necessary to characterize and monitor the moisture distribution in the vadose zone. In principle, borehole- and surface-based geophysical methods as well as remote sensing data can be used for this purpose. In order to assess the possibilities of the various methods for the specific site conditions of the Western Mountain Aquifer, the water balance of the area was investigated for the period from 1950 to 2020 using a double permeability variably saturated HydroGeoSphere model. Moreover, the distribution of soil moisture content at four intervals up to a cumulative depth of two-meter was inspected utilizing FLDAS2 NASA daily dataset. The temporal development of vertical moisture profiles was extracted from the HydroGeoSphere and FLDAS2 models for some selected locations. The profiles show a strong “intra-annual variation” at soil level which is strongly dampened by a depth two meter. This variability is generally not observed in higher depth profiles, as generated by HydroGeoSphere, where the shift from wet to dry periods made some “inter-annual variation” of moisture content. This result further supports the former studies claiming the importance of vadose zone on regulation of drought periods at aquifer level. Moreover, based on this assessment, a site-specific initial assessment of the suitability of the measurement methods such as cosmic ray neutron sensing, ground penetrating radar, resistivity measurements, nuclear magnetic resonance and remote sensing was carried out.
Hybrid Physically Constrained Machine Learning Models of Landslide Susceptibility: a Case Study from Slovenia
Authors: Strohmaier Florian , Brenning Alexander
Published: March 2024

Hybrid, physically constrained machine learning models combine the predictive power of machine learning approaches with the plausibility and interpretability of established physical models. The architecture of artificial neural networks (ANNs) allows to incorporate process-based constraints and physical laws to ensure a physically plausible and therefore generalizable model output.Hybrid models have proven their utility in a variety of scientific domains and, most recently, in the Earth system sciences. They have been successfully applied to model the global hydrological cycle or ocean currents and sea surface temperatures.However, up to now, the applicability of hybrid models has not yet been explored for landslide susceptibility and hazard modeling.It is therefore our objective to shed light on the potential of hybrid, physically constrained slope stability models by assessing the predictive performance and plausibility of results as a prerequisite for a wider adoption of such approaches in landslide studies. We have embedded an established slope stability model in an ANN framework to overcome parameterization issues: The ANNs estimate the spatial distribution of soil properties and local soil cohesion as spatially variable latent inputs to the physically based model structure without requiring field or laboratory data of these parameters. As a case study, in cooperation with the Geological Survey of Slovenia (GeoZS) we have developed a landslide susceptibility map for the municipalities most affected by the disastrous rainfall event in August 2023.Preliminary results show a good agreement with existing susceptibility maps produced with traditional slope stability models. Model parameters which would require extensive laboratory measurements for calibration could be plausibly estimated by machine learning. The hybrid approach furthermore allowed us to explicitly map these latent variables as a side product that supports model interpretation and can be evaluated with ancillary data that may become available in the future.Building upon these results, we plan to expand the model's spatial and temporal domains. In doing so, we can assess this novel approach in terms of its transferability and generalization capabilities.
Severe heat waves in Islamabad and its links with global mitigation benchmarks
Authors: Zuniga Cristian , Pfleiderer Peter , Souverijns Niels , Saeed Fahad , Schleussner Carl-Friedrich
Published: March 2024

Anthropogenic climate change encompasses shifts in weather and climate patterns that result in more severe extreme weather events such as tropical storms and heat waves. Observations and climate model simulations show that compound heat waves are becoming more frequent and intense with increasing global mean temperatures. Nevertheless, appropriate local and actionable climate information is scarce and may hinder an adequate adaptation response.Here, we use a reversal of the traditional impact chain methodology to find emissions constraints that avoid severe heat waves in Islamabad, Pakistan. We use high-resolution urban climate simulations from UrbClim, global climate simulations from CMIP6, and climate simulations from the simple climate model FaIR to estimate local risk threshold exceedances for a large set of emission scenarios. By doing so, we can link specific levels of local climatic impact-drivers to global climate trajectories and assess emission constraints that would avoid severe heat events in Islamabad.Connecting local risk threshold exceedance to global emission benchmarks can clarify the benefits of reduced emissions for society and decision-makers. Furthermore, our modeling framework allows to investigate different combinations of heat thresholds with occurrence frequencies and can easily be used to answer specific questions from various stakeholders.