bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Did the input data inflation via regression-based levelling of data from various analytical protocols affect the performance of geochemical predictive models?
Authors: Skála Jan , Žížala Daniel , Minařík Robert
Published: February 2023

The geochemical predictive models based on environmental correlations were proved to return reliable predictions when the covariates’ feature space is representatively covered by samples. It may be efficient to combine the data from different sampling campaigns. Classical analytical methods of wet mineralisation of trace elements with spectral termination are both cost- and time-consuming. For trace elements, the most common routine is the usage of aqua regia together with < 2 mm sieved samples. Nevertheless, in the Czech Republic, the common usage of partial extraction using cold 2 mol/L nitric acid had preceded the recent practise of aqua regia mineralisation and had left rich legacy datasets from long-term soil monitoring. We tested several models (i.e. simple linear models, step-wise multiple linear models and generalised additive models) to provide a reliable and effective (parsimonious) model for data recalculation between various extractions based on parallel soil analysis of 6,000 representative soil samples. Since all the regression models left highly spatially autocorrelated residuals, we also tested several spatial auto-regressive models among which the geographically weighted regression was found useful. Finally, we tested the predictive models using a quantile regression forest model where the environmental covariates for lithological sources (parent material classification combined with airborne geophysical data) and human-induced sources (night-time lights data, density of mining dumps, density of traffic routes, elements’ deposition rates) were combined with data from remotely sensed surface characterisation (Sentinel-2), multiscale representation of terrain (Gaussian pyramids), and the spatial autoregressive structure of target features (quantile-based buffer distances). We trained several QRF models in high resolution (20 x 20 m) where we researched the effects of using true measured data (3,300 samples) and dataset inflated with regression-recalculated data (11,000 recalculated samples from global and local regression-based levelling) and the potential effects of using the goodness of fit criteria from various regression-based recalculations between methods as weights for final QRF predictive models. The research has been supported by the Technology Agency of the Czech Republic under the research project No. SS03010364.
Tropical Convection through the Lens of the INCUS Mission
Authors: van den Heever Susan , Haddad Ziad , Dolan Brenda , Freeman Sean , Grant Leah , Kollias Pavlos , Leung Gabrielle , Luo Johnny , Marinescu Peter , Posselt Derek , Rasmussen Kristen , Sai Prasanth , Schulte Richard , Stephens Graeme , Storer Rachel , Takahashi Hanii
Published: February 2023

The convective mass flux within tropical convection influences the large-scale circulation, drives cloud radiative forcing, has integral links to the production of fresh water, and impacts extreme weather. CMF forms the focus of the recently selected Investigation of Convective Updrafts (INCUS) mission to be launched in 2026. This NASA mission is comprised of 3 spacecraft, all of which will carry a Ka-band cloud radar. One spacecraft will also carry a passive microwave radiometer. The 3 smallsats are to be separated by time intervals of 30, 90 and 120 seconds, thus allowing for the rapid and systematic sampling of the same storm with all three spacecraft. These time intervals (delta-ts) also facilitate the investigation of the magnitude and evolution of CMF, which will be examined as a function of storm type, storm lifecycle and environmental properties. INCUS will therefore provide the first global systematic investigation into CMF and its evolution within deep tropical convection.A wide range of research tasks have been conducted in preparation for the INCUS mission and the development of the INCUS algorithms including: (1) running and analyzing extensive suites of large-domain, high-resolution model simulations; (2) examining ground-based Doppler radar observations obtained using adaptive scanning techniques during several recent field campaigns; and (3) evaluating anvil characteristics using passive microwave radiometer and geoIR data. This talk will focus on three specific highlights arising from these modeling and observational analyses. First, we will examine the temporal scales of updraft variability. Second, we will analyze the relationship between ice water path cores and convective updrafts. Finally, we will demonstrate proof of the INCUS delta-t concept linking changes in reflectivity to CMF through the use of ground-based radar analyses.
Relationship between air pollution and synoptic scale weather in South Korea
Authors: Yoon Jin-Ho , Lee Dasom , Kim Hyun Cheol , Jeong Jee-Hoon , Kim Baek-Min , Wang Shih-Yu (Simon)
Published: February 2023

East Asia, including South Korea, has become a regional hot spot for the deteriorating air quality in recent years. During winter and spring, Particulate Matter (PM) is a dominant air pollutant. On the other hand, ozone becomes a major issue during summer season. In this talk, we’d like to show how synoptic scale weather pattern affects both PM and ozone in South Korea. Particularly, spatial synoptic classification (SSC) data are used to analyze characteristics of PM and ozone concentration according to synoptic weather patterns. During winter, dry moderate (DM) types occur frequently alongside high PM cases. The composite weather map showed a weak northwesterly wind field as a potential cause. On the contrary, it is interesting to note that dry polar (DP) types can be associated with low PM cases as well as high PM depending on near-surface wind speed. On the other hand, we found that DM, DT, and MT are commonly associated with high ozone; dry tropical (DT) produces ozone with the greatest efficiency, especially high levels of concentration. This finding implies a strong connection between surface ozone and climate change, because the occurrence of DT weather has increased by more three times over the past fifty years in South Korea.
Challenges and opportunities of knowledge co-creation for the water-energy-land nexus
Authors: Tudose Nicu Constantin , Marin Mirabela , Cheval Sorin , Ungurean Cezar
Published: February 2023

The pressure on natural resources including water, energy and land is continuously growing through changes in climate and land use. Representatives of academia, industry, governments and society need to join forces in order to develop new pathways towards sustainable natural resource use and management. Such pathways start from the basic idea that natural resources are finite and interlinked and that human activities can affect these resources and links, with partly irreversible effects. We combine the water−energy−land nexus and the climate services concept and present a cross-sectoral approach of knowledge co-creation to inform natural resource use and management. The approach is tested in three case studies across Europe that face different challenges resulting from climate and socio-economic change. We present the process, applied methods and major results of knowledge co-creation for sustainable natural resource use and management, and we reflect on the challenges and opportunities from engaging multiple stakeholders. Even if a comprehensive, cross-sectoral approach encourages embedding the water−energy−land nexus into climate services and allows the development of pathways towards sustainable natural resource use and management, maintaining these achievements and partnerships beyond the lifetime of a research project remains challenging.
Effects of land use, fuel loads and fuel moisture on fire intensity and fire emissions in South America derived by reconciling bottom-up and top-down satellite observations
Authors: Forkel Matthias , Andela Niels , Huijnen Vincent , Wessollek Christine , Awotwi Alfred , Kinalczyk Daniel , Marrs Christopher , de Laat Jos
Published: February 2023

Emissions from vegetation fires in tropical forests have the potential to turn the global land carbon sink into a source, affect atmospheric chemistry, and hence air quality. While natural forest fires are a rare phenomenon in tropical forests of South America and are usually of rather low intensity, deforestation fires and small land clearings in systems with high fuel loads can cause intense fires and high emissions. However, the high moisture content in tropical forests causes incomplete combustion and higher emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) than of carbon dioxide. The interacting effects of land use change, fuel load and moisture on fire intensity and emissions is, however, difficult to quantify at large scales because not all of those components are readily available from Earth observations in a consistent way. Here, we make use of several satellite products on vegetation, fire activity and atmospheric composition to quantify the effects of land use, fuel loads, fuel moisture on fuel consumption, emission factors and hence on emissions and atmospheric trace gas concentration. First, we use observations of active fires and fire radiative power from the VIIRS and Sentinel-3 SLSTR sensors to map different fire types (forest fires, deforestation fires, small land clearing and agricultural fires, savannah fires). Second, we integrate satellite products of canopy height, above-ground biomass, leaf area index, land cover and soil moisture in a novel data-model fusion framework to estimate fuel loads and moisture in vegetation, surface litter and woody debris. We then combine in a bottom-up approach the fire types with fuel loads and moisture to estimate fuel consumption and fire emissions using default emission factors. Third, we use observations from Sentinel-5p TROPOMI and the Integrated Forecast Systems (IFS) of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service to compare the bottom-up estimates with distributions of CO and NOx in the atmosphere, which allows optimising emissions and associated emission factors.Our reconciled estimates of fire emissions outperform previous CO estimates e.g. from the Global Fire Assimilation System, which demonstrates an improved estimation of fire carbon emissions. The results show that the high fire intensity and emissions in tropical deforestation fires originate from the burning of high loads of woody biomass and coarse woody debris. The high fuel moisture content causes higher emission factors of CO in tropical forests than in savannah fires and hence higher absolute emissions of CO. Our new model approaches and satellite products allow to provide an integrated assessments on the effects of fuel and fire behaviour on fire emissions.
Long term investigations at the Mont Terri rock laboratory of tilt and their near and far field influences
Authors: Rebscher Dorothee , Reichertz Finnegan G. , Schefer Senecio
Published: February 2023

Underground research laboratories provide advantageous conditions to observe a broad range of various rock parameters to characterise rock matrix and geological features, and to enhance knowledge of their dynamic behaviour, all under relatively undisturbed conditions. One of their favorable features is that the overburden protects against large environmental changes, although those influences cannot be mitigated in full. Especially for long term investigations, a holistic observation of ambient environmental parameters is necessary on the local scale and beyond.The Swiss Mont Terri rock laboratory is situated in the Jura Mountains about 250 m below the surface. Starting in 1996, the international Mont Terri Consortium has conducted about 150 experiments in the native Opalinus Clay. Embedded in several of the ongoing in situ experiments, platform tiltmeters assist in the often interdisciplinary investigations. Two different types of biaxial instruments with resolutions of 0.1 urad and better than nrad are distributed throughout the laboratory, together forming a small, growing array, with the first tiltmeters installed in April 2019.Tiltmeters observe the direct local deformation, they are exposed to near field but also far field impacts. Known local influences are mainly temperature, air pressure, and humidity. In Mont Terri, all of these parameters are registered directly at the location of the tilt sensors with the same relatively high sampling of once every few seconds. In addition, Mont Terri's comprehensive database imparts valuable complementing information. However, the detected deformation pattern is also influenced on a much larger spatial scale, e.g. far field, extensive changes in weather patterns, earth tides, and teleseismic events.Therefore, to allow detection, identification, and realistic interpretation of complex signal responses on different spatial scales, it is mandatory to distinguish transient and long term signals, natural and anthropogenic disturbances. Their understanding is essential for the evaluation of stability and the safety of a rock laboratory for the benefit of its personnel and visitors. Obviously, long term, continuous data series require long term commitments. But the efforts pays off, not the least, as decade-long deformation studies contribute to multifaceted technical and scientific aspects of long term behavior of barrier rocks, and these are relevant for the exploitation of the deep geological subsurface such as nuclear waste disposal, geological storage of carbon dioxide, use of geothermal energy, or inter-seasonal thermal energy storage.
Decision-support system for water availability estimation
Authors: Šantl Sašo , Sevšek Maja , Zabret Katarina
Published: February 2023

The management of water resources, their allocation and use is mainly directed by the policy at the strategic scale. In that way, the different sector interests can be coordinated, as well as principles of sustainable water use and goals of environmental conservation can be ensured. However, even the decision making at the strategic scale (i.e. at the level of the entire country) requires reliable information that provides sufficient support for decision makers in planning the further use of water resources. Accordingly, at the initiative of the decision maker (Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning of the Republic of Slovenia) the researchers at the Institute for Water of the Republic of Slovenia have developed a decision support system for water availability estimation in Slovenia. A multi-criteria approach was used, combining scientific approach in estimating the available water amounts (discharge in ungauged locations) and coordinated approach in setting the criteria, indicating the vulnerability of the environment according to specific locations and the attractiveness of that locations in terms of water use. The scientific aspect was used for the establishment of the methodology for the estimation of discharge in ungauged locations. Different machine learning and data mining techniques were tested, however Top kriging (Skøien et al., 2006) method was selected as the most accurate for assessment of the discharge across the country’s catchments, larger than 10 km2. Estimated characteristic discharges were then revised according to the environmental needs to evaluate the amounts of water available for further use. However, the selection of the criteria was performed through interdisciplinary collaboration with experts and decision makers from various fields. During settling of the selected criteria, the importance of cooperation was shown. Our initial list of the criteria was not sufficient, as some of the aspects were addressed differently or overlooked. It should also be taken into account that representatives of different fields determined the different importance of the included criteria.Acknowledgement: The development of the decision-support system was financed by the Ministry of the Environment and Spatial Planning of the Republic of Slovenia through the Institute’s annual work programme for years 2020 – 2023.
Progressing pedotransfer functions for nation-wide mapping of soil hydraulic properties
Authors: Darmann Florian , Kumpan Monika , Winkler Irene , Strauss Peter , Weninger Thomas
Published: February 2023

As the measurement of soil hydraulic properties is time-consuming and expensive, they are often computed from easily measurable soil properties via pedotransfer functions (PTFs). There are plenty of existing PTFs which were mainly derived for specific regions or catchments.In our study, new PTF’s for Austrian soils were developed to estimate soil hydraulic properties such as field capacity or permanent wilting point. The PTFs were built by applying the random forest method, including prediction of uncertainty measures.The used database includes soil physical data from different project and monitoring campaigns all over Austria and represents many different landscapes and soil types within the country. It consists of 2300 samples from 518 agricultural sampling locations.For the derivation of new PTF’s, several inputs were available. Since the model is to be applied to standard data from official Austrian soil mapping, we focused on the therein existing data as input variables. We tested four possible combinations for each target property, with particle size distribution and depth as fixed variables. Bulk density and soil organic matter were added in different compositions.To ensure the applicability of the newly derived PTF’s, the available data set was randomly divided into two subsets. A fraction of 80 % of the samples were contained in training data set for the derivation of the prediction models, the validation set includes 20 % of the data for determining statistical parameters and for comparison with other PTFs. This comparison showed good applicability of the new PTFs in relation to the previous models with R² ranging from 0,73 to 0,83 per target variable.Due to the fact that each prediction contains uncertainties, uncertainty maps for all agricultural areas in Austria were created. Therefore the 25% and 75% percentile and the respective interquartile range (IQR) of our predicted properties were determined. The results show mean values for the IQR between 6,8 % for field capacity at 60 hPa and 5,7 % for permanent wilting point.As main outcome, new models for hydraulic properties of Austrian soils were produced. The comparison with established PTFs showed higher accuracy for the prediction of soil properties in Austrian soils than other established PTFs. With the implemented prediction of uncertainty, areas with good predictions can be identified as well as areas with high uncertainties.
Nature-based Solutions for improving ecosystem services from vacant lands in a coastal city
Authors: Kim Min , Chon Jinhyung
Published: February 2023

Coastal cities are facing unexpected repercussions due to climate change. Thus, it is urgent and necessary to introduce nature-based solutions to enhance ecosystem services. However, since most coastal cities are highly urbanized and fully densified, it is difficult to find spaces to apply nature-based solutions. In this context, this study focused on vacant lands as alternative spaces, abandoned and remnant areas with high biodiversity and ecological values. This study aimed to evaluate how adopting nature-based solutions in vacant lands might improve ecosystem services including carbon storage, flood control, air quality control, and building energy saving. This study selected Seoguipo-si of Jeju-do as a study site because this city is considered as one of the cities most vulnerable to the effects of climate change in South Korea. First, this study investigated the social-ecological characteristics of vacant lands, such as geographical data, specification of trees and shrubs, vegetation composition, and land-use patterns. Then, this study determined that the study area had six types of vacant lands including (1) unmanaged vegetation with no grass, (2) single tree with grass cover, (3) street trees, (4) multi-layered vegetation, (5) single-layered vegetation, and (6) mini-lot vegetation. Second, this study assessed and simulated the improvement of ecosystem services according to types of vacant lands, planting strategies, and budget levels of nature-based solutions. The results show that prioritizing the introduction of multi-layered vegetation in areas vulnerable to climate change helped improve ecosystem services. Also, it was found that the higher the budget, the better the ecosystem services in vacant lands of the study area. Based on the results, this study suggested specific restoration strategies for applying nature-based solutions to vacant lands in the coastal city. The findings of this study can contribute to a deeper understanding of the novel role that vacant lands play in building coastal resilience. Also, the evidence-based design for adopting nature-based solutions conducted in this study may provide the basis for climate adaptive urban planning with limited budget and spaces.Funding: This research was suported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2022R1A6A3A01087632). 
Projected changes in cloud properties in low/medium/high ECS models from CMIP5 and CMIP
Authors: Bock Lisa , Lauer Axel , Eyring Veronika
Published: February 2023

Since the release of the first CMIP6 simulations one of the most discussed topics is the higher effective climate sensitivity (ECS) of some of the models resulting in an increased range of ECS values in CMIP6 compared to previous CMIP phases. An important contribution to ECS is the cloud climate feedback. Although climate models have continuously been developed and improved over the last decades, a realistic representation of clouds remains challenging. As projected changes in cloud properties and cloud feedbacks also depend on the simulated present-day fields, this contributes to the large uncertainties in modelled ECS.In this study, we investigate the representation of both, cloud physical and radiative properties from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models grouped by ECS. Model results from historical simulations are compared to observations and projected changes of cloud properties in future scenario simulations are analysed by ECS group. For consistent processing of all datasets, the Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is applied to CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations alongside with satellite observations.Our results show that there are significant differences in simulated cloud properties and cloud radiative effects among the low/medium/high ECS groups with the high ECS models typically showing a better agreement with observations than the two other groups. Further analysis also shows differences in the projected changes in cloud properties among the different ECS groups related to cloud cover, cloud ice and cloud liquid water content. For example, a decrease in TOA net cloud radiative effect with increasing temperature is found in the tropics in the high ECS models whereas there is an increase in TOA net cloud radiative effect in medium and low ECS models.
Persistent anticyclonic conditions and climate change exacerbated the exceptional 2022 European-Mediterranean drought
Authors: Faranda Davide , Pascale Salvatore , Bulut Burak
Published: February 2023

A prolonged drought affected Western Europe and the Mediterranean region in the first nine months of 2022 producing large socio-ecological impacts. The role of anthropogenic climate change (ACC) in exacerbating this drought has been often invoked in the public debate, but the link between  atmospheric circulation and ACC has not received much attention so far. Here we address this question by applying the method of circulation analogs, which allows us to identify atmospheric patterns in the period 1836-2021 very similar to those occurred in 2022. By comparing the circulation analogs when global warming was absent (1836-1915) with those occurred recently (1942-2021), and by excluding interannual and interdecadal variability as possible drivers, we identify the contribution of ACC. The 2022 drought was associated with an anticyclonic anomaly over Western Europe persistent over December 2021-August 2022. Circulation analogs of this atmospheric pattern in 1941-2021 feature 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies larger in both extent and magnitude, and higher temperatures at the surface, relative to those in 1836-1915. Both factors exacerbated the drought, by increasing the area affected and enhancing soil drying through evapotranspiration. While the occurrence of the atmospheric circulation associated with the 2022 drought has not become more frequent in recent decades, there is an increase of its interdecadal variability for which the influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal oscillation cannot be ruled-out.
Accounting for flux footprint to enhance the representativeness between remote sensing and in-situ data
Authors: Kobayashi Alex , Anache Jamil , Sone Jullian , Gesualdo Gabriela , Schwamback Dimaghi , Wendland Edson
Published: February 2023

The Brazilian Cerrado ecoregion, or wooded Cerrado, is considered one of the biodiversity hotspots. Despite the region’s importance in terms of supplying the water, food, and energy demand, there have not been enough ground-based studies. Furthermore, the lack of validation due to scale incompatibility and the great site-specific heterogeneity transpires in difficulty in the validation process.The eddy covariance method has the potential to directly measure water vapor or trace gases on an in situ scale. Their measurement directly reflects the surrounding study site; thus, each time interval has a corresponding footprint. So, each study site's heterogeneity can affect the target vegetation's representativeness.Here, we aimed to assess how two approaches for integrating remote sensing products and in-situ data affected representativeness in the wooded Cerrado. We used the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) in both approaches, which are described as follows: (i) a fixed-fetch approach of the surrounding area considering a radius of 2 km and (ii) a lagrangian footprint approach that varied by a 30-minute time interval.  We assessed their performance based on their hourly and seasonal association with canopy conductance, which was carried out using in-situ data.Compared to the fixed-fetch technique, the EVI footprint-integrated approach has a smaller range between the lower and upper quantiles, which is indicative of better targeting of the vegetation. Furthermore, we discovered that the integrated footprint technique produced a stronger association between EVI and canopy conductance than the fixed-fetch approach throughout most seasons and examined hours. The difference is most pronounced in the winter season, reaching a gain in the correlation of almost 100%, and for the autumn and spring with consistent gains of about 30%. Our findings highlight that integrating remote sensing products with footprint analysis can significantly improve the analysis's representativeness when targeting a specific land use or land cover, hence improving understanding of complex and heterogeneous areas.
Creating virtual forests to understand fragmentation in tropical ecosystems
Authors: Downie Eleanor , Fischer Rico , Knapp Nikolai , Ghizoni Santos Erone , Fassnacht Fabian , Camargo José Luis , Andrade Ana , Maeda Eduardo
Published: February 2023

The study of forest fragmentation, the break-up of forests into smaller patches, has become increasingly important due to increases in human-induced forest clearance, with 12 million hectares of forest being lost per year and 32% of this loss being tropical. There is substantial evidence showing that edge effects can alter the ecology structure and vertical profile of remaining forests, even hundreds of meters from the forest edge.  However, implementing empirical experiments (for example in the framework of the Biological Dynamics of Forest Fragments Project (BDFFP)) to understand the effects of fragmentation on forest structural traits can be logistically and scientifically challenging and limited to smaller areas.  The use of forest models may help overcome these limitations, as they are able to quickly reproduce long-term data, as well as simulate a broad range of geographical conditions. This study aimed to reproduce the vertical distribution of plants in Amazonian forests affected by fragmentation using the forest model FORMIND. To achieve this, we optimized parameters driving plant demography and mortality, as well as their response to edge effects. FORMIND is an individual and process-based gap model suited for species rich vegetation communities, with the option of a fragmentation module. We modified processes and parameters in FORMIND to mimic the dynamics observed in the BDFFP experiment. Forest structural traits extracted from the FORMIND model output were compared with those obtained from terrestrial laser scans of the BDFFP fragments. The resulting simulations demonstrated that, after 40 years of edge effects, the optimized model was able to reproduce similar results to those observed using the terrestrial LiDAR system. Total plant area index (PAI), and PAI at varying height intervals (PAI 0-10m, PAI 10-20m, PAI 20-30m), showed consistent responses from edge effects, thus resulting in an adequate vertical plant distribution. Results demonstrate that, forest models such as FORMIND have strong potential to study the mechanisms and the impact of environmental changes on forests. Models can also expand the possibilities of in-situ studies, which are limited in time and space, when calibrated carefully with suitable in-situ data, here delivered by terrestrial LiDAR.
Exploring the Biological, Chemical, and Physical Properties of Seawater of the Jordanian Gulf of Aqaba for Desalination Purposes
Authors: Al-Najjar Tariq , Al-Jawasreh Raid , Al-Khawaldeh Ma'in , Hammoudeh Ayman , Dhakal Nirajan , Hayek Wissam , Kennedy Maria , Wahsha Mohammad
Published: February 2023

This scientific work aims to monitor the quality of the Gulf of Aqaba seawater in terms of locations and depths to determine their suitability for desalination purposes. Accordingly, various parameters were measured within the selected coastal and offshore sites at several depths (5, 25, 75, and 125 meters). Parameters included temperatures, pH, salinity, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll-a, nutrients (ammonium, nitrate, nitrite, and phosphate), Silt Density Index (SDI15), Modified Fouling Index (MFI0.45), and Adenosine Triphosphate (ATP). The sampling site (29°27'31.9"N 34°58'10.0"E) with an average depth of about 400 meters. Seawater samples were collected in Niskin bottles using the MSS research vessel equipped with oceanographic equipment. Temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH, and conductivity were recorded using the Conductivity, Temperature, and Depth meter (CTD). The maximum SDI15 value was registered in May with a value of 6.3 %/min at a depth of 125 m, while the lowest recorded value was 4.4 %/min at the surface water. Furthermore, the lowest MFI0.45 was reported at a depth of 75 m during February, and it was 0.5 s/L2, while the highest was 9.4 s/L2 at the surface seawater. The preliminary results of the seawater ATP analysis showed that the R2 of the regression is relatively high in the case of SDI15, temperature, depth, and MFI0.45 as 0.792, 0.854, 0.871, and 0.876, respectively. This work is a fruitful collaboration between the MSS (Jordan) and the IHE Delft Institute for Water Education (The Netherlands), in which SDI, MFI, and ATP seawater parameters have been utilized for the first time in the Gulf of Aqaba.Keywords: Desalination; ATP, Gulf of Aqaba, MFI, SDI
Monitoring soil moisture in the deeper vadose zone: A new approach using groundwater observation wells and cosmic ray neutrons
Authors: Rasche Daniel , Weimar Jannis , Schrön Martin , Köhli Markus , Morgner Markus , Güntner Andreas , Blume Theresa
Published: February 2023

Monitoring soil moisture at depths greater than one meter is generally challenging and often highly invasive as it requires opening large soil pits. As a result, this deeper vadose zone is often not monitored at all. On top of that, conventional soil moisture sensors usually have only a small measurement volume. On the other hand, soil moisture estimates derived from above-ground Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensing (CRNS) are a representative average over an area of several hectares but only of the upper half meter of the soil. To this day, it is commonly believed that cosmic radiation cannot be used to monitor soil water content below this depth. As a consequence, large parts of the root-zone and deeper unsaturated zone have remained outside the observational window of the method. The estimation of soil moisture in greater depths typically requires additional invasive measurements, other active geophysical methods, or mathematical models which extrapolate surface soil moisture observations.Against this background, we investigated the possibility of using passive detection of cosmogenic neutrons in existing monitoring infrastructure (e.g. groundwater wells). We hypothesized that this method provides a larger measurement volume than traditional techniques based on active neutron probes while requiring less safety restrictions.Our neutron transport simulations demonstrated that this downhole-CRNS technique would be sensitive enough to detect changes of water content in depths down to 5 meters and above, depending on the temporal resolution of measurements. The simulations also revealed a large measurement radius of several tens of cm depending on the soil moisture content and soil bulk density.From the theoretical results we derived a functional relationship between soil moisture and detectable neutrons and tested it in a groundwater observation well. Additional installations of supporting soil moisture sensors have been used to validate the model predictions as well as the neutron signals monitored by the CRNS detector. The study demonstrated the general applicability of downhole Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensing for the estimation of soil moisture in greater depths and at temporal resolution of two days.
A Conditional Probability based Tsunami Prediction for the Pacific Ring of Fire
Authors: Sabah Nazeel , Shanker Daya
Published: February 2023

The Pacific Ring of Fire, stretching over 15 countries, is one of the earth's most Tsunami-prone regions. 80 Percent of the Tsunami Occurrences could be directly or indirectly associated with this region. This study deals with the development of Conditional Probability and Total Probability based approaches for estimating the probability of Tsunami Occurrence in the study area. This study suggests ten regions with a high probability of tsunami occurrence in the region. The prediction results are validated by computing the occurrence probabilities of the known tsunami events in the region. The study reveals that East Asian Countries like Japan, North and South Korea and Parts of China have a probability, more than 75 per cent, of experiencing a strong tsunami (Mw > 7.5) in the next three years from now. Also, certain South American countries like Peru, Chile and Ecuador, Southeast Asian Counties like Indonesia and South Pacific Countries like Papua New Guinea, Australia, and the Solomon Islands have a high probability of tsunami occurrence (90 Percent and above) in the next five years.  Based on this methodology, it has been possible to predict the Indonesian Tsunami of December 14th, 2021, with a probability of 83 Percent.
Linking laboratory seismic velocity measurements with the minerlogical content and (micro)structures of the COSC-2 drill core, central Scandinavian Caledonides
Authors: Schweizer Nora , Rast Markus , Madonna Claudio , Almqvist Bjarne , Wenning Quinn
Published: February 2023

The deep erosion of the Scandinavian Caledonides provides a unique opportunity to study the interior of an orogen. The Collisional Orogeny in the Scandinavian Caledonides (COSC) scientific drilling project aims to better understand orogenic processes and to verify interpretations of the Scandinavian Caledonides based on subsurface geophysical investigations. The second drill hole of the project (COSC-2) is located near Järpen in central Jämtland, Sweden (central Scandinavian Caledonides). Based on seismic images, the ∼2.3 km deep drill hole was assumed to transect the Lower Allochthon, the main décollement located in the Alum shale formation, the footwall sedimentary succession, and the underlying basement. Although a deformation zone in the Alum shale formation is found between ∼775 and ∼820 m depth, its related structures dip moderately towards ESE to E, which does not fit a décollement that is expected to dip gently to the west. The recent detailed description of the COSC-2 core also revealed a mostly continuous sedimentary succession deposited on top of a porphyry sequence, with no abrupt transition from autochthonous to allochthonous units.The discrepancy between the interpretation of the seismic image and the drilled lithologies highlights the need to determine seismic properties of the drill core. The P-wave and S-wave sonic downhole logging performed after drilling may provide a first indication in high spatial resolution. However, laboratory seismic velocity measurements are required to link seismic velocities with mineralogical composition, (micro)structures, and associated anisotropy. We determine the P- and S-wave velocities of six samples covering main lithologies of the drill core: (1) a sand-to claystone (turbidite) from ∼380 m depth, (2) a sandstone from ∼690 m depth, (3) a phyllitic shale (Alum shale) from ∼815 m depth, (4) a fine grained conglomerate from ∼1175 m depth, (5) a porphyry from ∼1255 m depth, and (6) a dolerite from ∼1655 m depth. The seismic velocities are measured in three mutually perpendicular orientations, at different confining pressures up to 250 MPa. Measurements at pressurized conditions are used to simulate in-situ conditions and to estimate the intrinsic (crack-free) velocities. For all samples, we determine the density and describe the mineralogical composition as well as textures that may lead to seismic anisotropy. With the resulting data, we will be able to constrain the origin of the seismic velocity changes and associated reflections found in the seismic image. Furthermore, we can derive basic petrophysical properties such as seismic anisotropy and dynamic elastic moduli, which may serve as a basis for future studies related to similar tectonic settings.
Insights on structural deformation within the Münsterland, Germany, from legacy and newly acquired 2D seismic data for the development of conventional geothermal systems
Authors: Ackermann Nicklas , Jüstel Alexander , Kettermann Michael , Ritzmann Oliver , Bussmann Gregor , Lehmann Carsten , Wellmann Florian
Published: February 2023

The Münsterland Cretaceous Basin with its underlying coal-bearing Paleozoic strata has become one of the prolific areas in North-Rhine Westphalia, Germany, to develop conventional geothermal systems. The presence and structural deformation of four potential calcareous and siliciclastic geothermal reservoirs within the basin (Upper Cretaceous carbonates) and the basement (Lower Carboniferous carbonates, Upper Devonian sandstones, Upper/Middle Devonian carbonates) are only known from sparsely distributed boreholes and crustal seismic data (DEKORP). We aim at reducing the geological uncertainties by interpreting and analyzing legacy data of the DEKORP project, and recently acquired 2D seismic data from the central Münsterland. In addition, information from former research and hydrocarbon wells, now intersecting the newly acquired surveys, were integrated to guide and verify the interpretation. Our investigations contribute to the already existing knowledge of the Variscan folding and spatial distribution of the potential geothermal reservoirs within and below the Münsterland Cretaceous Basin. Further, we show previously undescribed local inversion structures in the Cretaceous section caused likely by the reactivation of post-Variscan transtensional faults in the center of the basin. The seismic data exhibits anomalies which will be analyzed if they are indicating areas of increased porosities through structural deformation or the presence of migrated hydrocarbons in these regions. The latter would imply a structural connection between coal-bearing Carboniferous strata and porous reservoirs in the Upper Cretaceous via deep-reaching reactivated faults. The presence of fault zones that have evidently been vertically permeable on a geological time scale demonstrate possible fluid pathways for conventional geothermal systems. Such geothermal systems could be future targets for drilling to produce local renewable district heating for the city of Munster.  Therefore, further investigations such as in-situ tests through drillings are required to quantify the current permeability of these damage zones.
Joining efforts to improve Science Communication and Science Education - a new Austrian partnership project
Authors: Feldbacher Eva , Weigelhofer Gabriele , Panzenböck Michaela , Sippl Carmen , Jöstl Gregor
Published: February 2023

According to various recent studies, Austrian citizens have a lower interest in science and are less likely to belief in the benefits of science and technology than the average EU citizen. Limited trust and interest in science are closely linked to a lack of knowledge of the research process and scientifically generated data. Projects and networks at the interface of science and education provide an excellent opportunity to develop innovative ways of science communication, raise scientific literacy and influence the attitude towards scientific findings positively. Thus, scientists from several disciplines, educators, and administrative authorities teamed up to form the partnership “Interdisciplinary network for science education Lower Austria (INSE)”, led by WasserCluster Lunz and funded by GFF NÖ. Our partnership aims at (i) raising school students’ and the public’s understanding of science by demonstrating and involving them into the scientific process of different scientific disciplines, (ii) increasing the interest in science by using innovative forms of science communication, and (iii) strengthening the belief in the benefits of science by highlighting the contributions of science to existing and emerging societal and ecological challenges.  We will present our partnership project, show examples of concepts for science education and science communication, and hope to initiate contact with other (inter)national partners (e.g. interested scientists from other disciplines, existing networks for science communication…) to strengthen and expand our partnership network.
Large-amplitude perturbation experiments to assess the unstable behaviour of AIS in the near future
Authors: Urruty Benoit , Gagliardini Olivier , Gillet-Chaulet Fabien , Durand Gael , Chekki Mondher
Published: February 2023

The stability of the grounding lines of Antarctica is a fundamental question in term of sea level rise The strong mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) in recent years has raised concerns about the possibility of the ice sheet reaching a tipping point, beyond which it would experience rapid and irreversible loss of mass. Such a tipping point could be triggered by a combination of external forcing factors, including continued warming of the ocean and atmosphere, as well as changes in ice sheet dynamics. As shown by Urruty et al. (in review), the current mass loss and retreat is mainly due to external forcing such as melt induced by the ocean and current grounding lines are not yet engaged in an unstable retreat. But if forcing remains similar or increases, some irreversible and fast mass loss may occur as a result of grounding lines crossing a tipping point.As part of the TiPACCs project, we are conducting experiments to evaluate the stability of the grounding lines of the AIS in the future. Building on the stability experiment described in Urruty et al. (in review), we are using the same initial state created with Elmer/Ice to perform a new set of experiments. In these experiments, we are applying large-amplitude perturbations to the grounding line of a steady-state AIS by increasing ocean temperature by 1°C, 3°C, and 5°C for periods ranging from 20 to 100 years in order to push the grounding line far from its current position. After the perturbation is removed, we then apply 80 years of constant forcing to see if an unstable position is reached. These experiments will help us better understand the stability of the grounding line at different positions that could be reached in the near future if current observed forcing trends continue.
AmazonFACE: A Free Air CO2 Enrichment Experiment in the Amazon rainforest is ready to launch
Authors: Anja Rammig , David Lapola ,   AmazonFACE Team
Published: February 2023

Atmospheric CO2 concentrations are still rising due to land-use change and fossil fuel burning, and have unambiguously influenced Earth’s climate system and terrestrial ecosystems. Plant responses to rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations may have induced an increase in biomass and thus, increased the carbon sink in forests worldwide. Rising CO2 directly stimulates photosynthesis (the so-called CO2-fertilization effect) and tends to reduce stomatal conductance, leading to enhanced water-use efficiency, which may provide an important buffering effect for plants during adverse climate conditions. For these reasons, current global climate simulations consistently predict that tropical forests will continue to sequester more carbon in aboveground biomass. However, several lines of evidence point towards a decreasing carbon sink strength of the Amazon rainforest in the coming decades, potentially driven by nutrient limitation, droughts or other factors. Mechanistically modelling the effects of rising CO2 in the Amazon rainforest are hindered by a lack of direct observations from ecosystem scale CO2 experiments. To address these critical issues, we are currently building a free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiment in an old-growth, highly diverse, tropical forest in the Brazilian Amazon and we here present our main hypotheses that underpin the AmazonFACE experiment.  We focus on possible effects of rising CO2 on carbon uptake and allocation, phosphorus cycling, water-use and plant-herbivore interactions, and discuss relevant ecophysiological processes, which need to be implemented in dynamic vegetation models to estimate future changes of the Amazon carbon sink. We also report on baseline measurements at the AmazonFACE site and show the progress on model development with regard to phosphorus uptake strategies.