bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Forest species regeneration and management options in the Melajo Nature Reserve, Trinidad and Tobago
Authors: HOMER FLOYD , LAL KISHORE , JOHNSON WINSTON
Published: July 2002

Tropical moist forests are declining rapidly world-wide. Reforestation efforts in Trinidad have generally been insufficient and focused on non-native species. Some of these species (e.g. Pinus caribaea), however, appear ecologically inappropriate but have been used extensively on sandy soils after fires or where harvesting has degraded the original vegetation. Little research attention has been given to natural regeneration as a potential for future timber production. The purpose of this study was to determine whether or not post-fire regeneration provided sufficient species of commercial importance that could influence forest management planning. The field research was conducted at the Melajo Nature Reserve in north-east Trinidad, where there has been a particular focus on non-native species plantation in adjacent areas. A fire in 1987 devastated much of the remaining mature mora (Mora excelsa Benth.) forest at the Melajo Nature Reserve. The successional species were identified and recorded four years after the fire, and the abundances of commercially-important regenerating species were determined. The total number of species recorded was 201, representing 60 families with 153 genera. There were 14 species of timber value, with Mora excelsa, Terminalia amazonia, Byrsonima spicata and Sterculia caribaea being the most abundant. The abundance of commercially-important timber species in the most fire-damaged plot was 93% less than that for the least fire-damaged plot. The density of these species at the post-fire site in Melajo was on average higher than that of the same species in the mature mora forest. In 1991, the post-fire site at Melajo contained about 54% of the species recorded for a mature mora forest at Matura, north of Melajo (over 50 years ago).
A knowledge-based system integrated with numerical analysis
tools for aircraft life-cycle design
Authors: MARX WILLIAM J. , MAVRIS DIMITRI N. , SCHRAGE DANIEL P.
Published: July 2002

An integrated design and manufacturing approach
allows economic decisions to be made that reflect an entire
system design as a whole. To achieve this objective, we
have developed and utilized integrated cost and engineering
models within a focused design perspective. A framework
for the integrated design of an aircraft system with a
combined performance and economic perspective is described
in this article. This framework is based on the concept
of Design Justification using a Design-for-Economics
approach. We have developed a knowledge-based system that
can be used to evaluate aircraft structural concept material
and process selections. The framework consists of the knowledge-based
system, integrated with numerical analysis tools including
an aircraft performance/sizing code and a life-cycle cost
analysis code. Production cost estimates are applied for
evaluation of process trades at the subcomponent level
of design. Life-cycle cost estimates are used for evaluation
of process trades at the system level. Results of a case
study are presented for several advanced wing structural
concepts for a future supersonic commercial transport aircraft.
Cost versus performance studies indicate that a high-speed
civil transport aircraft with a hybrid wing structural
concept, though more expensive to manufacture than some
homogeneous concepts, can have lower direct operating costs
due to a lower take-off gross weight and less mission fuel
required.
The seroepidemiology of measles in Western Europe
Authors: de MELKER H. , PEBODY R. G. , EDMUNDS W. J. , LÉVY-BRUHL D. , VALLE M. , ROTA M. C. , SALMASO S. , van den HOF S. , BERBERS G. , SALIOU P. , CONYN-van SPAENDONCK M. , CROVARI P. , DAVIDKIN I. , GABUTTI G. , HESKETH L. , MORGAN-CAPNER P. , PLESNER A. M. , RAUX M. , TISCHER A. , MILLER E.
Published: July 2002

The European Regional Office of WHO has targeted measles for elimination from the region in 2007. Large national, age and sex stratified serological surveys of measles antibody were conducted in seven Western European countries from 1994–8 as part of the European Sero-epidemiology Network. Three patterns were observed in the country-specific measles seroprofiles, ranging from (very) low susceptibility (four countries) to high susceptibility (one country). Susceptibility levels amongst 2–4-year-olds ranged from 2·9 to 29·8 %, in 5–9-year-olds from 2·5 to 25 % and 10–19-year-olds from 2·1 % to 13·9 %. A country's susceptibility profile was highly associated with vaccine coverage for the first dose. First dose coverage ranged from 91 to 97·5 % for low susceptibility countries, 75 to 85 % for intermediate susceptibility countries and 55 % for the high susceptibility country. Only the high susceptibility country still reports epidemic measles. In low susceptibility countries, which have achieved or are very close to measles elimination, the priority will be to maintain high MMR vaccine coverage in all geopolitical units for both vaccine doses. In moderate susceptibility countries there is still some endemic transmission, but also risk of outbreaks as pools of susceptibles accumulate. In the high susceptibility country the priority will be to increase infant vaccine coverage and reduce regional variation in coverage levels.
Detection and typing of vancomycin-resistance genes of enterococci from clinical and nosocomial surveillance specimens by multiplex PCR
Authors: LU J. J. , PERNG C. L. , CHIUEH T. S. , LEE S. Y. , CHEN C. H. , CHANG F. Y. , WANG C. C. , CHI W. M.
Published: July 2002

Ninety-three clinical isolates of vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) collected from nine hospitals in Taiwan were examined for the presence of vanA, vanB, vanC1, or vanC2/vanC3 genes by a multiplex PCR. Forty-seven of these VRE isolates were vanA positive, 1 contained both vanC1 and vanA, 40 harboured vanB, 2 were vanC1, and 3 were identified to be vanC2/vanC3. Twenty-four vanA isolates were sensitive to teicoplanin and thus did not have a typical VanA phenotype. Five isolates with the VanC phenotype harboured vanB. None of the 40 clinically isolated vancomycin-susceptible E. faecium or E. faecalis and the vancomycin-resistant Leuconostoc and Pediococcus isolates were positive for any of the van genes. While performing nosocomial surveillance, VRE were isolated from 47 of 467 rectal swabs by culture. Compared with the conventional culture method, the sensitivity and specificity of the multiplex PCR for detecting and identifying vancomycin-resistance genes in enterococci directly from culture-positive broth were 97·9% and 100%, respectively. The results suggest that genotypic characterization of vancomycin-resistance is necessary for all clinical VRE isolates and that the multiplex PCR assay can be an alternative method for this purpose.
Klebsiella meningitis in Taiwan: an overview
Authors: TANG L.-M. , CHEN S.-T. , HSU W.-C. , CHEN C.-M.
Published: July 2002

Klebsiella infection has been considered to be an uncommon cause

of meningitis. To determine

its incidence and clinical features, we reviewed the microbiologic records

of cerebrospinal fluid

(CSF) and blood cultures and the medical records of patients with

bacterial meningitis

admitted between 1981 and 1995. Klebsiella meningitis was diagnosed in

79 patients with 83

episodes. All patients had klebsiella isolated from CSF and/or

blood and typical symptoms

and signs of acute bacterial meningitis. Of these, 74 were over 16 years
of

age and 2 of the 5

children were infants. There was an increased prevalence rate of

klebsiella meningitis after

1986. Of the 83 episodes, only 9 occurred between 1981 and 1986, accounting

for 7·8% of 115

cases with CSF and/or blood culture-proven acute bacterial meningitis,

whereas in 1987–95,

there were 74 episodes accounting for 17·7% of 419

bacteriologically proven cases. K.

pneumoniae accounted for 69 episodes, K. oxytoca, 11 episodes

and K. ozaenae, 3 episodes.

Male gender, diabetes mellitus and liver cirrhosis were commonly associated

with K.

pneumoniae meningitis. Neurosurgical procedures were frequently

associated with K. oxytoca

meningitis. All three patients with K. ozaenae meningitis had

a primary disease of the

nasopharyngeal pathway. The mortality rate due to K. pneumoniae

was 48·5%, K. oxytoca,

10% and K. ozaenae, 0%. In patients with K. pneumoniae

meningitis, poor prognostic factors

included age over 60 years, diabetes mellitus, bacteremia and severe

neurological deficits on the first day of treatment.
P fimbriae and other adhesins enhance intestinal persistence
of Escherichia coli in early infancy
Authors: ADLERBERTH I. , SVANBORG C. , CARLSSON B. , MELLANDER L. , HANSON L.-Å. , JALIL F. , KHALIL K. , WOLD A. E.
Published: July 2002

Resident and transient Escherichia coli strains were identified
in the rectal flora of 22 Pakistani
infants followed from birth to 6 months of age. All strains were tested
for O-antigen
expression, adhesin specificity (P fimbriae, other mannose-resistant adhesins
or type 1 fimbriae)
and adherence to the colonic cell line HT-29. Resident strains displayed
higher mannose-
resistant adherence to HT-29 cells, and expressed P fimbriae (P=0·0036)
as well as other
mannose-resistant adhesins (P=0·012) more often than transient
strains. In strains acquired
during the first month of life, P fimbriae were 12 times more frequent
in resident than in
transient strains (P=0·0006). The O-antigen distribution
did not differ between resident and
transient strains, and none of the resident P-fimbriated strains belonged
to previously
recognized uropathogenic clones. The results suggest that adhesins mediating
adherence to
intestinal epithelial cells, especially P fimbriae, enhance the persistence
of E. coli in the large
intestine of infants.
Transplacental transfer of measles and total IgG
Authors: GONÇALVES G. , CUTTS F. T. , HILLS M. , REBELO-ANDRADE H. , TRIGO F. A. , BARROS H.
Published: July 2002

This study was conducted to evaluate factors affecting the levels of total IgG (tIgG)
and measles specific IgG (mIgG) in mother and cord sera, and the efficiency of transplacental
transport of tIgG and mIgG. The study was conducted in four hospitals in Oporto, Portugal,
where 1539 women and their newborns were enrolled. Measles IgG levels were lower among
vaccinated mothers and respective cord sera than among vaccinated counterparts. Cord mIgG
was strongly correlated with maternal levels in both vaccinated and unvaccinated groups.
Transplacental transport efficiency (TTE) of mIgG decreased with increasing maternal levels,
although almost one third of the observed effect was due to measurement error. The TTE was
not affected by vaccination status. Monitoring maternal measles antibody levels and maternal
vaccination status could be useful to determine when the age for measles vaccination can be
reduced.
Enteroviruses in Spain: virological and epidemiological studies over 10 years (1988–97)
Authors: TRALLERO G. , CASAS I. , TENORIO A. , ECHEVARRIA J. E. , CASTELLANOS A. , LOZANO A. , BREÑA P. P.
Published: July 2002

A total of 15662 clinical samples were analysed for enterovirus (EV) isolation in cell cultures
during a 10-year period (1988–97). Furthermore, 210 isolates of EV obtained in primary
laboratories within Spain from patients with meningitis were characterized. The total number
of EV typed was 758, including 727 non-polio EV and 31 Sabin-like (SL) polioviruses. Twenty-eight EV serotypes were represented. Echoviruses comprised 90% (653/727) of fully typed non-polio EV. The four most prevalent serotypes were echovirus 30, echovirus 9, echovirus 6 and
echovirus 4. Echovirus 30 was the main serotype associated with meningitis. Echovirus 9 was
the aetiological agent in 20 outbreaks of meningitis while the occurrence of echovirus 6 was
localized in 1 year (1997). Coxsackieviruses A and B occurred in 3 and 7% of the non-polio
EV respectively. Coxsackievirus B5 presented the relative greater abundance. This paper
examines the epidemiology of EV in Spain to serotype level over a 10-year period with special
attention to non-polio EV associated with meningitis.
The reproductive strategy of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca): infant growth and development and mother–infant relationships
Authors: Zhu Xiaojian , Lindburg Donald G. , Pan Wenshi , Forney Karin A. , Wang Dajun
Published: July 2002

Reproductive activities of six giant panda females (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) living in the Qinling Mountains of China (Shaanxi Province) were recorded from 1989 into early 1995. Data on mating and birth dates, litter size, cub sex and den use were collected for three of the pandas. At this site, pregnant females migrated to lower elevations in advance of other pandas to seek dens for birthing. One dam was videotaped in the den with her cub from birth to the end of the denning phase at 94 days of age. This cub was repeatedly handled during the dam's absences to obtain data on development and weight. During the early part of the denning phase, the cub was maintained on the dam's body virtually continuously. Post‐partum fasting for up to 3 weeks was noted. Dams invariably moved cubs to new dens three or four times during the birth season. By the time cubs left the den at about 3–4 months, they were fully furred and capable of surviving winter temperatures without further shelter. Reproductive parameters for the wild population fell within the range of values for captive pandas, based on information in the literature and in the giant panda studbook. The combined data on length of gestation, intervals between births, litter size and weight, infant development, and reproductive life span reveal a range of life‐history variables that strongly resemble the Ursidae.
Reintroduction of the European beaver (Castor fiber) to Norfolk, U.K.: a preliminary modelling analysis
Authors: South A. B. , Rushton S. P. , Macdonald D. W. , Fuller R.
Published: July 2002

An existing spatial population model, developed to assess the reintroduction of the European beaver Castor fiber to Scotland, was applied to predict the likely result of reintroducing beavers to Norfolk, England. A habitat analysis was conducted using the Land Cover Map (classified satellite imagery developed by the Institute of Terrestrial Ecology) to predict the location of areas suitable for beavers. The model was used to simulate population processes within these areas and dispersal between them following a range of reintroduction scenarios. To represent uncertainty regarding the probable behaviour of beavers in Norfolk, the habitat analysis and model were applied using three sets of parameter values (high, medium and low) derived from the literature. It was predicted that Norfolk could support between 18 and 40 beaver families. Using high or medium parameter values, beaver populations were predicted to expand following reintroduction and spread to new areas. Using low parameter values populations were predicted to decrease, risk extinction and not colonize new areas. This analysis is a preliminary investigation into the likely fate of beavers in Norfolk. Checking the estimates of habitat availability in the field would enable greater confidence to be placed in these predictions.
Examination of some factors affecting selection of fish prey by otters (Lutra lutra) living by eutrophic fish ponds
Authors: Lanszki J. , Körmendi S. , Hancz C. , Martin T. G.
Published: July 2002

In this study the predation and fish prey selection of otters Lutra lutra L. living by eutrophic fish ponds on agricultural land and in a protected area of temperate climate in Hungary were investigated. The correlations between fish in the diet of the otters (by spraint analysis involved 1942 and 1280 samples for the two habitats) and the fish stock available (by harvest and sample fishing) were generally close. Prey selection was significantly related to selected species of a particular size range (P<0.01). The preference calculations were performed with Ivlev's index of preference (Ei, minimum −1, maximum +1). Regardless of species, the otters avoided (Ei=−0.51) fish heavier than 1000 g, with a preference for individuals weighing between 500 and 1000 g (Ei=0.79). No substantial or clear preference was observed in the weight range below 500 g (Ei=−0.02–0.38). The preference for fish in accordance with their characteristic sites of occurrence within the body of water was also significant (P<0.01). They avoided fish living primarily in open water (Ei=−0.64) and to a lesser degree those occurring near the pond bed (Ei=−0.22). They favoured fish inhabiting the area with a covering of aquatic plants (Ei=0.46), and showed a preference to a lesser degree for fish living in the shallow littoral regions (Ei=0.14). With the cessation of fish farming and the effect of the drastic changes which occurred in the vegetation, the otters fed substantially on the stock of alternative sources of prey such as amphibians and water insects as well as terrestrial animals, and at such times, depending on season, fish became a secondary source of prey.
Follow-up study of young stress-affected and stress-resilient urban children
Authors: COWEN EMORY L. , WYMAN PETER A. , WORK WILLIAM C. , KIM JULIA Y. , FAGEN DOUGLAS B. , MAGNUS KEITH B.
Published: July 2002

Reports follow-up study of 181 young highly stressed urban children, classified as

stress-resilient (SR) and stress-affected (SA) 1½–2 years earlier. At follow-up

(T2), children were retested on five initial (T1) test measures:

self-rated adjustment, perceived competence, social problem solving, realistic control

attributions, and empathy; parents and teachers did new child adjustment ratings, and parents

participated in a phone interview focusing on the T1–T2

interval. Child test and adjustment measures and parent interview responses at T2

sensitively differentiated children classified as SR and SA at T1. Test and

interview variables used at T1 and T2 correlated moderately across

time periods. At T2, four child test indicators (i.e., rule conformity, global

self-worth, social problem solving, and realistic control attributions) and four parent interview

variables (positive future expectations for the child, absence of predelinquency indicators, good

parent mental health in the past year, and adaptive parent coping strategies) sensitively

differentiated children classified as SR and SA at T1. No relationship was found

between family stress experienced in the T1–T2 interval

and changes in children's adjustment during that period.
Prenatal teratogens and the development of adult mental illness
Authors: WATSON JENNIFER B. , MEDNICK SARNOFF A. , HUTTUNEN MATTI , WANG XUEYI
Published: July 2002

Our findings in the Helsinki Influenza Study and the Danish Forty Year Study lead us to
conclude that a 2nd-trimester maternal influenza infection may increase risk for adult
schizophrenia or adult major affective disorder. More recently we have also reported an increase
of unipolar depression among offspring who were exposed prenatally to a severe earthquake (7.8
on the Richter scale) in Tangshan, China. Among the earthquake-exposed males (but not the
females), we observed a significantly greater depression response for those individuals exposed
during the 2nd trimester of gestation. These findings suggest that maternal influenza infection
and severe maternal stress may operate (in different ways) as teratogens, disrupting the
development of the fetal brain and increasing risk for developing schizophrenia or depression in
adulthood.
Stability of compressive and undercompressive thin film travelling waves
Authors: BERTOZZI ANDREA L. , MÜNCH ANDREAS , SHEARER MICHAEL , ZUMBRUN KEVIN
Published: July 2002

Recent studies of liquid films driven by competing forces due to surface tension gradients and
gravity reveal that undercompressive travelling waves play an important role in the dynamics
when the competing forces are comparable. In this paper, we provide a theoretical framework
for assessing the spectral stability of compressive and undercompressive travelling waves in
thin film models. Associated with the linear stability problem is an Evans function which
vanishes precisely at eigenvalues of the linearized operator. The structure of an index related
to the Evans function explains computational results for stability of compressive waves. A
new formula for the index in the undercompressive case yields results consistent with stability.
In considering stability of undercompressive waves to transverse perturbations, there is an
apparent inconsistency between long-wave asymptotics of the largest eigenvalue and its actual
behaviour. We show that this paradox is due to the unusual structure of the eigenfunctions
and we construct a revised long-wave asymptotics. We conclude with numerical computations
of the largest eigenvalue, comparisons with the asymptotic results, and several open problems
associated with our findings.
Social constructivism and CALL: evaluating some interactive
features of network-based authoring tools
Authors: LABOUR MICHEL
Published: July 2002

A quality-based authoring tool is defined by its ability to
satisfy its users’ needs. In the design and use of such tools in CALL,
however, very little reliable information exists about what the tutoring system
really does, for example concerning its capacity to create ‘interactive’ lessons.
Linked to this, many teachers lack the time and resources to keep up with the
latest technological developments, and invariably feel they are under exploiting
the possibilities of CALL. This paper proposes a typology of different types of
CALL-based interactivity and interaction to help teachers better assess the
possibilities of network-based multimedia authoring tools. In adopting a general
social constructivist approach, the system of classification looks at how one
can link different learning styles, in this case that of Mumford & Honey
(1992) Learning Styles, to different types of: (1) on-line learner
accompaniment; (2) evaluation of learner production; (3) organised structures of
events/states (scenation); (4) data organisation; (5) information units; (6)
frequency of choice; (7) choices made available to learners. Finally, a multimedia
authoring system, LEM of Speaker (Intranet version 3.30) will serve as a
demonstration of the importance of this mode of evaluation to the design and
understanding of such authoring tools in CALL.
Subclinical hypothyroidism in elderly patients
Authors: Abdulla AJJ , Chan Y
Published: July 2002

Symptoms of thyroid disease in older people are often subtle, and in most cases the diagnosis of hypothyroidism is made on the biochemical findings of high thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) combined with a low thyroxine (T4) level. However, with the routine use of sensitive assays, a significant number of patients have been identified with elevated TSH but normal T4 level and few or no symptoms. These patients have subclinical hypothyroidism (SCH).
Population densities of the Black-faced Cotinga Conioptilon mcilhennyi in south-east Peru
Authors: Lloyd Huw
Published: July 2002

Population densities of the near-threatened Black-faced Cotinga Conioptilon mcilhennyi were investigated during a 21-month survey of lowland rainforest bird communities in Madre de Dios, south-east Peru. Surveys for the species were conducted at two locations along the Río Madre de Dios. C. mcilhennyi is more abundant in old floodplain/seasonally flooded swamp forest mosaic habitat than in seasonally flooded swamp forest. Regional population estimates along the Río Madre de Dios, Río Parramanu and Río de las Piedras range from 1,153 to 2,178 individuals. Current threats to this species and its habitat are discussed along with several conservation recommendations, including the proposal that the newly designated Parc Nacional Bahuaja-Sonene or existing Zona Reservada de Tambopata-Candamo are expanded to encompass suitable Black-faced Cotinga habitat.
TRIBES AND CLADES WITHIN APIACEAE SUBFAMILY APIOIDEAE: THE CONTRIBUTION OF MOLECULAR DATA
Authors: DOWNIE S. R. , PLUNKETT G. M. , WATSON M. F. , SPALIK K. , KATZ-DOWNIE D. S. , VALIEJO-ROMAN C. M. , TERENTIEVA E. I. , TROITSKY A. V. , LEE B.-Y. , LAHHAM J. , EL-OQLAH A.
Published: July 2002

Phylogenetic analyses of chloroplast gene (rbcL, matK), intron (rpl16, rps16, rpoC1) and nuclear ribosomal DNA internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences and chloroplast DNA restriction sites, with supplementary data from variation in size of the chloroplast genome inverted repeat, have been used to elucidate major clades within Apiaceae (Umbelliferae) subfamily Apioideae Drude. This paper summarizes the results of previously published molecular cladistic analyses and presents a provisional classification of the subfamily based on taxonomic congruence among the data sets. Ten tribes (Aciphylleae M. F. Watson & S. R. Downie, Bupleureae Spreng., Careae Baill., Echinophoreae Benth., Heteromorpheae M. F. Watson & S. R. Downie, Oenantheae Dumort., Pleurospermeae M. F. Watson & S. R. Downie, Pyramidoptereae Boiss., Scandiceae Spreng. and Smyrnieae Spreng.) are erected or confirmed as monophyletic, with Scandiceae comprising subtribes Daucinae Dumort., Scandicinae Tausch and Torilidinae Dumort. Seven additional clades are also recognized but have yet to be treated formally, and at least 23 genera examined to date are of dubious tribal or clade placement. The utility of these different molecular markers for phylogenetic inference in Apioideae is compared based on maximum parsimony analyses of subsets of previously published molecular data sets. Of the six loci sequenced, the ITS region is seen to be evolving most rapidly and rbcL is the most conservative. Intermediate in rate of evolution are matK and the three chloroplast introns; with rpl16 and rps16 evolving slightly faster than matK or rpoC1. The analysis of restriction sites, however, provided 2–4 times more parsimony informative characters than any single DNA locus sequenced, with estimates of divergence just slightly lower than that of the ITS region. The trees obtained from separate analyses of these reduced data sets are consistent with regard to the major clades inferred and the relationships among them. Similar phylogenies are obtained by combining data or combining trees, representing the supermatrix and supertree approaches to phylogenetic analysis, respectively. The inferred relationship among the tribes and informally recognized major clades within Apioideae is presented.
Morally Managing Medical Mistakes
Authors: SMITH MARTIN L. , FORSTER HEIDI P.
Published: July 2002

Mistakes and errors happen in most spheres of human
life and activity, including in medicine. A mistake can
be as simple and benign as the collection of an extra and
unnecessary urine sample. Or a mistake can cause serious
but reversible harm, such as an overdose of insulin in
a patient with diabetes, resulting in hypoglycemia, seizures,
and coma. Or a mistake can result in serious and permanent
damage for the patient, such as the failure to consider
epiglottitis in an initial differential diagnosis, resulting
in a chronic vegetative state for a seven-year-old boy. Or
a mistake can be an error in judgment that leads to a
patient's death.
How Can Hospital Futility Policies Contribute to Establishing
Standards of Practice?
Authors: SCHNEIDERMAN LAWRENCE J. , CAPRON ALEXANDER MORGAN
Published: July 2002

A few years ago a battered infant was admitted to
a California hospital. After a period of observation
and testing, the physicians concluded that the infant had
been beaten so badly that his brain was almost completely
destroyed, leaving him permanently unconscious. The hospital
had just adopted a policy specifying that life-sustaining
treatment for permanent unconsciousness was futile and,
therefore, not indicated. According to this policy, after
suitable subspecialty consultations and deliberations,
including efforts to gain parental agreement and documentation
of unanimous ethics committee support, the patient's
physician had the authority to discontinue life-sustaining
treatment. The infant's physician wished to do this.
The mother, however, who was the prime battery suspect,
insisted that the baby be kept alive.
Paradigms for Clinical Ethics Consultation Practice
Authors: FOX MARK D. , McGEE GLENN , CAPLAN ARTHUR
Published: July 2002

Clinical bioethics is big business. There are now
hundreds of people who “do” bioethics in community
and university hospitals, nursing homes, rehabilitation
and home care settings, and some (though quite a few less)
who play the role of clinical ethics consultant to transplant
teams, managed care companies, and genetic testing firms.
Still, there is as much speculation about what clinically
active bioethicists actually do as there was ten years
ago. Various commentators have pondered the need for training
standards, credentials, “certification” exams,
and malpractice insurance for ethicists engaged in clinical
consultation. Much of the discussion seems to accept an
implicit presumption that all clinical ethics consultation
practices look pretty much alike. But is this accurate?
What do clinical ethicists do, how and where do they do
it, and what kind of clinical ethics is useful in the hospital
and in other settings?
Review of periodical articles
Authors: Rosser Gervase , Jenner Mark , Luckin Bill
Published: July 2002

One of the attractions of medieval urban history is the fact that major conceptual problems in the field continue to be debated. In a stimulating review article by J.H. Mundy, ’Philip Jones and the medieval Italian city-state‘, J. of European Economic History, 28 (1999), 185–200, one distinguished scholar is taxed for holding views now dismissed by some, but of which he is by no means a unique surviving representative. One of these views assumes a clear distinction between the antique city, supposedly a bureaucratic centre with limited economic functions, and the medieval city, as the home of industrious artisans and nascent capitalism. The image of the non-profit-making ancient town may be overly indebted to the nature of the literary sources and to the prevalent interests of classicists; but, although many would now agree that both the elements in the above equation need qualifying, a more focused comparison is presently lacking, and a fine book is still waiting to be written on the transition from the ancient world to the middle ages in urban history.
Review of periodical articles: 1500–1800
Authors: Jenner Mark
Published: July 2002

Why 1500? Why 1800? Why does Urban History's review of periodical literature use this definition of the early modern? Does urban history have a periodization of its own? The reluctance of historians to stray before and after 1800 is a major theme of C.R. Friedrichs's review of early modern German urban history, ‘But are we any closer to home? Early modern German urban history since German Home Towns’, Central European History, 30 (1998), 163–86, and I wondered about these issues while reading some of the articles published this year which did not stop and surrender their historical passports at 1500.
FORMING THE CHIVALRIC SUBJECT: FELICIA HEMANS AND THE CULTURAL USES OF HISTORY, MEMORY, AND NOSTALGIA
Authors: Rothstein David
Published: July 2002

BY THE EARLY 1820s, medievalist representations of the British nation, such as those disseminated through Sir Walter Scott’s Ivanhoe, had increasingly displaced longstanding, Francophobic forms of nationalist imagery popular throughout Britain during the century of wars against France before 1815. The “medieval revival” of the early nineteenth century provided inspiration for a new strain of nationalist imagery and discourse that would evolve and help to shape British subjects for nearly a century preceding the Great War. Scholarship since Alice Chandler’s A Dream of Order (1970) has widely explored the literary and artistic development of medievalism in the nineteenth century. What needs further discussion or theorization are the cultural uses of nineteenth-century medievalist representations of the British nation, its history, aristocracy, and chivalric ideology. What also needs further discussion are the subject-forming and nation-forming implications of texts by popular, recently revived medievalist writers such as Felicia Hemans (Figure 5).
Introduction: contemporary theatre and drama in Europe
Authors: FISCHER-LICHTE ERIKA
Published: July 2002

The 30 years between the 1960s and the 1980s of the 20th century are recalled today as a golden age of European theatre. They seem to have revived, continued and re-created the previous golden age brought about by the historical theatre avant-garde movements during the first decades of the 20th century (approximately 1900–1930). Then, Adolphe Appia, Jacques Copeau, Edward Gordon Craig, Leopold Jessner, Vsevolod Meyerhold, Max Reinhardt, Alexander Tairov, Evgeni Vakhtangov and others had striven for what they called a retheatricalization of theatre.
Decision‐maker expectations and the value of climate prediction information: conceptual considerations and preliminary evidence
Authors: Sherrick Bruce J , Sonka Steven T , Lamb Peter J , Mazzocco Michael A
Published: July 2002

This paper examines the commonly used assumption that decision‐makers possess accurate prior probability information about climate events that affect their well‐being, and illustrates the impact of that assumption on the valuation of prediction information. A survey of large producers in the Mid‐western United States is used to recover their prior beliefs about climate variables. It is found that producers systematically misrepresent the probabilities of climate events that materially affect their well‐being. In particular, the most common form of the miscalibration between actual and subjective probabilities is to overstate the likelihood of adverse events and understate the likelihood of favourable events. As a result, common methods for valuing prediction information are likely to understate the true value when recipients begin with less accurate prior beliefs. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society
Introducing and verifying rainfall probability forecasts in a small meteorological office
Authors: Blancq Frank Le , Johnson Philip
Published: July 2002

The introduction of a new medium‐range weather forecast presented an opportunity to establish a verification procedure for monitoring the reliability and accuracy of probability of precipitation (PoP) forecasts. The need for verification is discussed and a simple verification procedure described, using reliability diagrams as a visual guide to forecaster bias, Brier Scores to give levels of accuracy and Skill Scores to demonstrate skill levels when comparing forecast methods. The application of this verification procedure in a small meteorological office, with no dedicated research facilities, is presented and discussed. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society
Clear air turbulence over South Africa
Authors: de Villiers M P , van Heerden J
Published: July 2002

Clear air turbulence (CAT) at high altitude remains a hazard to aviation which can result in passenger injury and aircraft damage. Two limited surveys of CAT events over South Africa, 1993–1995 (inclusive) and 1998, are used to illustrate the most likely synoptic conditions under which CAT can be expected. A case study of CAT associated with an upper‐air trough and a mountain wave is presented. The study also evaluates the effectiveness of the Ellrod Turbulence Index (ETI) derived from model data provided by the UK Met. Office. A forecast of ETI derived from the Global Spectral Model of the United States National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) is also reviewed. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society
Meteorological and geo‐orographical relationships with lightning activity in Castilla‐Leon (Spain)
Authors: Rivas Soriano L J , De Pablo F , Garcia Diez E L
Published: July 2002

Some meteorological and geo‐orographical factors related to cloud‐to‐ground flashes in Castilla‐Leon (Spain) are studied. The relationship between flash density and the number of days with thunderstorms (thunderdays) is analysed, and a clear dependence and geographical variability is found. It is also shown that flashes have an average delay of four hours with respect to the time of the beginning of convection. The effect on flashes of dry static instability and moisture content is analysed by classifying days into four types according to the average values of the 850–700 hPa temperature difference and the 850 hPa dew‐point temperature. A similar classification using the 700 hPa wind direction is used to analyse the effect of the mean‐level flow on flashes. The results suggest that the daily number of flashes is mainly affected by the moisture content. Finally, a relationship between the cloud‐to‐ground flash density and geo‐orographical factors (altitude, latitude and longitude) is deduced using multiple linear analysis. Copyright © 2001 Royal Meteorological Society
A diagnostic study on the improvement in tropical cyclone motion prediction by the UK Meteorological Office Global Model
Authors: Chan Johnny C L , Kwok Roger H F
Published: July 2002

The UK Meteorological office introduced a new bogussing scheme for tropical cyclone (TC) motion prediction in its global model in October 1994 after a series of tests. Before the operational implementation of this scheme, a 19‐day period (in August and September 1994) was selected during which both the new and the old schemes were run operationally in parallel for a total of 12 TCs in three ocean basins. Comparisons between the forecast errors of the schemes demonstrated the superiority of the new scheme at all forecast time periods (Heming et al., 1995). This paper presents the results of an investigation into the possible reasons for the improved predictions by the new scheme during this trial period. All three factors of the new scheme (an improved initial positioning of the TC, an imposed steering flow derived from the past 6‐h motion of the TC and an empirical vortex structure determined from actual observations and TC warning bulletins) are found to contribute towards the improvement. In particular, a good initial position together with an appropriate steering produce a much better 24‐h forecast. For the 48‐ and 72‐h forecasts, the steering flow remains an important factor and the contribution of the vortex structure also becomes significant in some cases. The steering flow appears to be the most crucial factor in determining the accuracy of the model predictions. Copyright © 1997 Royal Meteorological Society.
Commercialisation in the provision of meteorological services in New Zealand
Authors: Steiner J Thomas , Martin John R , Gordon Neil D , Grant Malcolm A
Published: July 2002

There have been significant reforms in New Zealand of government management in general and of the science and transport sectors in particular. The impact of the reforms on the provision of meteorological services is discussed as an example of the application of the general reform thrust to a specialist technical area. The eventual outcome was the establishment of Meteorological Service of New Zealand Ltd (MetService) as a commercial company, trading in the weather forecasting market but remaining under Crown ownership. At the same time the National Institute of Water and Atmosphere (NIWA) was established. It includes the climatic responsibilities and much of the scientific research component of the former NZMS. It too operates commercially and is Crown owned. Unlike MetService, NIWA is not required to return a dividend to its owners. The procedures leading to the establishment of these new organisations, their mode of operation and their initial successful performance are described. Copyright © 1997 Royal Meteorological Society
Developments in aviation forecasting in the UK
Authors: Hall B A
Published: July 2002

The main developments in aviation forecasting over the 50 years up to 1985 are summarised. The importance of subsequent increasing Regional and World Area Forecasting commitments at the UK Meteorological Office is stressed, along with a demonstration of the more recent advances in forecasting low‐level and middle/upper‐level significant weather, respectively. Meteorological hazards requiring warnings (e.g. SIGMETS) and current aviation forecast output are considered, along with a glance into the future, cautioning that the trend towards fully automated products may be hindered by slower improvements in some aspects of model technology such as derived‐field forecasts of fog and low cloud. Copyright © 1998 Royal Meteorological Society
An autonomous approach to road temperature prediction
Authors: Hertl Stefan , Schaffar Gottfried
Published: July 2002

To provide ice warnings for road maintenance, a forecasting model has been developed that computes the state of the road several hours in advance. The model, which is called HS4Cast, runs autonomously and does not need human input. The current version of the forecast model features a fuzzy logic engine that determines the best forecast by evaluating certain patterns in the measured parameters. Using this forecast engine, predictions up to 24 hours in advance are possible with reasonable accuracy. If available, additional forecasts from a weather centre may be imported into the model so that the effects of precipitation are taken into account, this further reduces forecast errors. Statistics summarising the model's performance are presented using data from several measurement sites along an Austrian motorway, where HS4Cast has been in use since about 1990. Copyright © 1998 Royal Meteorological Society
Numerical simulation of two heavy rainfall events over coastal southeastern Australia
Authors: Speer Milton S , Leslie Lance M
Published: July 2002

Predicting rainfall along the New South Wales (NSW) coast is a major forecasting problem because of sharp gradients in rainfall amounts with the heaviest falls on the coastal fringe decreasing rapidly inland. On some occasions the rainfall pattern is less spatially coherent and consists of isolated maxima. Both rainfall patterns are associated with mesoscale coastal ridging. The first rainfall pattern arises from coastal ridging occurring in combination with an offshore trough. In the first case study presented here, a typical ridge–trough system was aligned parallel to the coast, and located just offshore, with the observed rainfall heaviest at the coast, decreasing rapidly from over 60 mm to near zero 30 km inland. The model captured well the southward temporal evolution of the maximum relative humidity values and rainfall. The second rainfall pattern occurs when shallow coastal ridging interacts with downdrafts from thunderstorm activity over the ranges to the west. The second case study was one in which convergence and condensation generated a quasi‐stationary line of thunderstorms, resulting in flash flooding. The model precipitation rates and accumulations matched very closely those of the squall line, as revealed by radar precipitation intensities and the observed rainfall. Copyright © 1998 Royal Meteorological Society
Statistical relationship between aerological data and daily precipitation at Buenos Aires
Authors: Ruiz N E , Vargas W M
Published: July 2002

The basic statistics of aerological variables obtained from radiosonde data at Ezeiza, Buenos Aires, Argentina, for 1986 are examined, and their relationships with occurrence and non‐occurrence of daily local precipitation are analysed. The resulting samples are statistically different for nearly all the variables. Nevertheless, thermodynamic variables at the 700 mb level and the K‐Whiting instability index yield the best correlations with rainfall, though it is noted that they are diagnostic and not prognostic variables. 500 mb relative vorticity at selected gridpoints is included in the analysis, given the effectiveness of this dynamic field to recognise favourable patterns for daily precipitation occurrence. Some experiments using these potential predictors to specify occurrence or non‐occurrence of the event within a 24‐hour period are presented. Copyright © 1998 Royal Meteorological Society
Applications of the NERC MST radar facility in mesoscale studies
Authors: Thomas L
Published: July 2002

The NERC radar facility located near Aberystwyth (52.4°N,4.1°W) was established for remote sensing of the structure and dynamics of the mesosphere, stratosphere and troposphere; hence the name MST radar. The facility records scatter and reflection from metre‐scale irregularities in refractive index produced by atmospheric waves and turbulence. The measurement of the three‐dimensional wind field at tropospheric and lower stratospheric heights represents the primary capability of the facility and is expected to be particularly useful in short‐range local weather forecasting operations. At the same time, the temporal and height resolution achievable lend themselves to studies of smaller‐scale, time‐varying phenomena, such as waves and turbulence. Particular attention has been paid to the characteristics and vertical propagation of mountain waves and inertia‐gravity waves, and estimates made of the vertical flux of horizontal momentum associated with such waves, known to play a significant role in the large‐scale atmospheric circulation. The turbulence associated with the dissipation of these waves, and also generated in the vicinity of jet streams, has also been examined. Quasi‐specular reflection of radar waves associated with changes in temperature gradients has helped monitor the height and sharpness of the tropopause and also the structure of frontal zones. The technical capabilities of the facility and the continuity of data provided by its all‐weather and extended operation have been shown to be well suited to both mesoscale meteorological and research applications. Copyright © 1999 Royal Meteorological Society
THE TREATMENT OF DELIBERATE SELF-HARM IN BORDERLINE PERSONALITY DISORDER USING DIALECTICAL BEHAVIOUR THERAPY: A PILOT STUDY IN A HIGH SECURITY HOSPITAL
Authors: Low Gail , Jones David , Duggan Conor , Power Mick , MacLeod Andrew
Published: July 2002

Deliberate self-harm (DSH) presents a significant health problem, especially as treatments have not been
particularly successful in reducing repetition. Dialectical behaviour therapy (DBT; Linehan, 1993) is one approach that
has reported some success in reducing self-harm rates in borderline personality disorder patients, who self-harm
frequently, though it remains largely untested outside its original setting. The present study aimed to assess the
effectiveness of DBT in self-harming women in an institutional setting in the United Kingdom where self-harm is
common. Female patients at Rampton Hospital who were displaying self-harming behaviour and met criteria for
borderline personality disorder (N = 10) participated in the full one-year treatment package of DBT. Patients were
assessed on self-harm rates and on a number of psychological variables, pre-, during- and post-therapy, including a
6-month follow-up. There was a significant reduction in DSH during therapy, which was maintained at 6-month
follow-up. This was paralleled by a reduction in dissociative experiences and an increase in survival and coping beliefs,
alongside improvements in depression, suicide ideation, and impulsiveness. The findings are preliminary but the results
suggest that DBT might provide an effective treatment for severe self-harm in institutional settings, and also highlight
some of the psychological mechanisms that might mediate these improvements in self-harming behaviour.