bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Investment Dependence and Political Conflict in Third World Countries
Authors: Rothgeb John M.
Published: March 2007

This research investigates the effect of international forces upon domestic political conflict by examining the relationship between foreign investment and political protest in underdeveloped states. Three conceptions of the association between foreign investment and conflict are considered. The first two focus on foreign investment as creating conflict by exacerbating deprivation. The basic difference between these views centers around whether the effects are felt most in poorer or in richer societies. In general, scholars who maintain that deprivation occurs see it as resulting from the impact of a large foreign presence on the strength of the host government and on its increased use of repression. The third, or liberal, conception sees foreign investment as reducing conflict by enhancing resource availability. The findings from the cross-national analysis of a sample of underdeveloped countries indicate that a high level of foreign investment is associated with less conflict in poorer societies and with more conflict in wealthier countries. The increased conflict in wealthier states, however, is not a product of the effect of foreign investment on governmental strength and repression, as deprivation theorists argue.
Feminist Perspectives on Peace Education
Authors: TAKALA ANNIKA
Published: March 2007

Two books by Birgit Brock-Utne, Educating for Peace and Feminist Perspectives on Peace and Peace Education, convey the picture of their author, an internationally known activist in women's work for peace. Peace is defined not only as absence of violence, but as equality of rights as well. The author provides plenty of facts about the disadvantageous living conditions and position of women, and classifies this information into categories of violence. A feminist perspective on peace education means concentrating on women's possibilities to influence the socialization process of (their) children. The author's personal contribution consists of analysing a wealt of research results from the viewpoint of gender-specific socialization. Starting from the view that boys are educated for war and girls for peace, the author develops a view of socialization that would promote peace. The discussion of socialization concentrates on its influence on personality traits of youngsters, but the growth process itself is not really analysed. Seen from the author's feminist perspective, the formal school system is unfit for peace education, functioning to maintain the existing (male) power structure of society. Conceptual extrapolation from individual traits to the relationships between nations and national states is characteristic of many views presented by the author. In the final pages of the second monograph, the author states that in order to promote peace, changes should be made simultaneously at the micro-, meso-and macrolevels of society. If this is taken seriously, then the role of the formal school system cannot be overlooked.
The History of Economic Warfare: International Law, Effectiveness, Strategies
Authors: Førland Tor Egil
Published: March 2007

The article surveys the history of economic warfare from the Seven Years' War to the present. Three different aspects of economic warfare are studied: international law, effectiveness, and strategies. From the seventeenth century until World War I economic warfare scholarship was dominated by the perspective of international law. But as belligerents ignored jurists' rules of acceptable conduct in economic warfare, the international law approach receded into irrelevance. Practitioners and analysts alike have differed over the effectiveness of economic warfare. Its lack of success against Germany in World War II was a severe blow to the prestige of the blockade weapon. Economic warfare protagonists had underestimated the capability of a determined power elite, controlling the army, to retain power despite economic hardship. In general, economic warfare seems able to do little more than shorten conflicts. Strategies of economic warfare have two dimensions: the institution of blockades and other measures `at large', and the question of according to which principles one should draw up lists of prohibited items. Developments on the first dimension have gone full circle, from Napoleon's Continental self-blockade prohibiting imports from the United Kingdom while promoting exports, to the CoCom embargo of the USA and its allies restricting exports to the Warsaw Pact countries without attempting to prevent imports. On the second dimension, lists of contraband swelled until by World War II they became all-encompassing. In modern wars every good can have relevance to the war effort. Economists have even pointed out that the most strategic item is not the one having the greatest military use but the one relatively most expensive for the adversary to produce domestically and therefore bringing the greatest gains from trade.
UN Peace-Keeping: In the Interest of Community or Self?
Authors: Neack Laura
Published: March 2007

This article examines whether state participation in UN peace-keeping results from a state's idealistic commitment to the global community and international peace or whether participation is tied to the state's national interest. With the high profile of UN peace-keeping in this post-Cold War era, the answer to this inquiry may suggest to us whether the emerging international system will be organized on the principles of community or self. This inquiry is conducted through an examination of the eighteen UN peace-keeping operations fielded from 1948 until 1990. Specifically, this article examines the incidence of state participation and the types of contributions states have made both to observer missions and peace-keeping forces at the aggregate level. This article also explores the perception of peace-keeping successes and failures and the perceptions of the dominant peace-keepers to determine whether an idealist or a realist perspective better accounts for state participation in peace-keeping. The findings provide support for the realist account. Further, the findings suggest that those states whose interests were better served by the continuation of the international status quo - that is, the states of the advanced industrialized West and non-Western states who have enjoyed some prestige in the international status quo - have dominated UN peace-keeping.
Bipolarity, Multipolarity, and Domestic Political Systems
Authors: Väyrynen Raimo
Published: March 2007

Domestic factors have become increasingly important with the erosion of bipolarity in international relations. Together with the transnationalization of the world economy and civil society, this change has weakened the state apparatus: and yet the latter is expected to act more effectively for domestic and global governance. The ensuing dilemma of state action is particularly acute in countries like Italy and Japan, where the alliance relationship with the United States has been propped up by conservative political parties. In socialist countries the bipolar international order was closely associated with the one-party state. The lack of accountability by governments in East and West has not been replaced by a new democracy, but rather by a new political volatility reflected in changing coalitions and populist policies. Political imperatives of the Cold War are about to be replaced by the imperatives of the market place. This in turn requires that peace and war issues be analyzed in a new key.
United States Military Intervention and the Promotion of Democracy
Authors: MEERNIK JAMES
Published: March 2007

All through history, when United States presidents have sought to explain or defend US military interventions in foreign lands, no goal, with the exception of the national security of the United States, has been advanced with such regularity and frequency as the promotion of democracy. Interestingly, however, this readiness to use force in the name of democracy does not appear to square with some of the emerging findings on the pacific relations among democratic nations. If states do not war on each other because they are democratic, does it make sense that they wage war or use force to compel others to become democratic? In this article the author attempts to answer two central questions related to the use of force by the United States in the ostensible quest to promote democracy. First, why would the United States intervene in the affairs of other nations to promote democracy? And second, is the use of force an effective tool in the promotion of democracy? The article finds that in the majority of cases, regardless of the manner in which democratic change is measured, US military interventions do not appear to lead to increased levels of democracy. Most nations retain their current level of democracy. However, when a comparison is made between nations which have experienced intervention, with those that have not, it is shown that the former group is more likely to experience democratic growth. Probit analyses of the effects of military intervention on democratization generally support the notion that the use of US ground forces does lead to increased democratization. A probit model is also developed to predict which military interventions are most likely to promote democracy. The predictive success of the models is quite high. The author finds that when the president declares democracy is a goal of the intervention, and if the US government is opposed to the targeted regime, democracy is more likely to be promoted.
Radical Islam and Nonviolence: A Case Study of Religious Empowerment and Constraint among Pashtuns
Authors: Johansen Robert C.
Published: March 2007

Religious traditions, like national traditions, frequently foment collective violence. Yet all of the world's major living religious traditions also contain the seeds of tolerance, justice, compassion, and peace. A preoccupation with the violent elements of these traditions may impede the expression of their less violent themes. For diverse reasons, religious and political leaders may give insufficient attention to the peace-building prospects in religious traditions. As this case study of Islamic political activism among Pashtuns in the North-West Frontier Province of colonial India in the 1920s, 1930s, and 1940s demonstrates, religion may motivate people for bold action against political repression while confining them to nonviolent means in pursuit of humanitarian ends. A formula for Muslim nonviolent direct action, developed by Abdul Ghaffar Khan, has many applications in contemporary conflicts where change is desirable but violent means are often self-destructive. This study demonstrates that Islamic religious identity can provide the basis for recruiting people to become political activists, for nurturing a strong identity and discipline within their movement, for enabling activists to overcome their time-honored inclination to use violence, for contesting the more violent elements of a religious tradition in religious rather than secular terms, for avoiding intolerance toward people of other religious traditions, and for nurturing courage and determination against great odds. If imaginative leadership today would draw upon the bold yet nonviolent contributions that religious traditions could make, even in contexts where violent reactions may seem justified, then a possible clash of civilizations might be managed without irretrievable disasters for the human race.
In Search of Security: Relative Gains and Losses in Dyadic Relations
Authors: Werner Suzanne
Published: March 2007

Neorealists and neoliberals both agree that if states are primarily concerned about security, cooperation will be difficult to achieve and maintain. Cooperation is difficult because states worry that others may gain more from the agreement. I show, in contrast to these expectations, that security concerns do not necessarily impede, and can in fact provide the foundation for, cooperation between states. I suggest that the distributional battles often witnessed between states can be signs of negotiations along the Pareto frontier rather than evidence of relative gains concerns. My argument is based on the recognition that a state's security is not always, or even often, best served by maintaining its position in each dyadic relationship as the neorealists claim. If a state can utilize the resources gained from an agreement with one state to influence and protect itself against other states in the system or if a state anticipates that third parties may play a role in some disputes which may arise in the future, then the relationship between a state's security and the gains realized by another state is not straightforward. A state's security may be enhanced, dimished or remain unaffected by the gains realized by different states in the system. It is inappropriate then to assume that when security concerns predominate the chances for cooperation have diminished; security concerns may in fact provide the basis for cooperative relations. The analysis also suggests that empirical expectations about the cooperative or conflictual potential of different systems cannot be readily inferred as the incentive to cooperate will vary depending upon the dyad in question.
The United Nations at 50: Managing Ethnic Crises - Past and Present
Authors: Carment David , James Patrick
Published: March 2007

With the UN now past the half-century mark of existence, it is natural to pause and reflect on the organization's role in the management and resolution of a truly global problem: ethnic conflict. No figures, however, are available with respect to the UN's record in responding to communal conflict as manifested at the interstate level. The present study is intended as an initial venture into UN activity in the aggregate, with a specific focus on international ethnic crises. This investigation of the UN and interstate ethnic crises unfolds in four stages. First, the special challenges posed by ethnic conflicts are summarized, leading into a series of propositions about crisis management and outcomes. The second stage presents sources of data and measurement of variables. Third, the propositions about UN activity are tested over the period from 1947-94. In both the full and post-1988 periods, violent crisis management and severe violence become more likely with UN involvement. However, if the UN has not been able to prevent violence in the most difficult situations, it has improved the way that participants view the outcome in a greater proportion of conflicts than in the Cold War era. Fourth, and finally, implications of the results and directions for future research are discussed.
Mervyn Frost and the Constitution of Liberalism
Authors: Williams John
Published: March 2007

The article looks at Mervyn Frost's `constitutive' theory of international ethics. Following Hegel, Frost shows how individuals are constituted with moral worth through their position within a society, which Frost extends to include the society of states. He uses this method to tie together a list of settled norms in international relations, producing a `background theory' supporting the claim of these norms to ethical worth. The article suggests Frost is on weak ground in two particular areas. First, his concentration on the post-Cold War era and his characterisation of the Cold War as an ethical desert rob the theory of crucial historical sensitivity, leaving unanswered questions about the origins, development and evolution of the settled norms and the role they have played. Second, Frost bases the value of his constitutive ethical theory on its ability to resolve difficult questions in international relations, rather than on its being worthy of respect for its own sake. This raises the question of the `practical' rather than `purposive' basis of the theory which is suggested as being a deeper, cosmopolitan assumption about individuals as the object of ethics. It is respect for individuals that underpins his theory, not the way in which the settled norms constitute those individuals. Finally, the review essay suggests that this hidden Western cosmopolitanism and lack of historical sensitivity reinforce the need for a greater ethical engagement with the question of power in the development and evolution of norms in international relations.
Factors in the Decision-Making of North Carolina Probation Officers
Authors: Reed John P. , King Charles E.
Published: March 2007

A questionnaire on eight revocation cases selected from state files revealed some discernible differences in decisions and ra tionalizations among 108 field officers of the North Carolina Probation Department. Lambda and Q measures of cross-tabu lated characteristics of the officers, decisions, and rationalizations showed that values tended to concentrate in cases characterized by a revoking pattern or extenuating circumstances and in case situations where the police or courts were holding the proba tioner or acting upon his violation. Most officers gave officer- oriented or social order reasons for their decisions rather than reasons that were probationer-oriented.
The Prehearing Juvenile Report: Probation Officers' Conceptions
Authors: Gross Seymour Z.
Published: March 2007

Seventy Minnesota probation officers handling juvenile offend ers were asked to rank each section of the prehearing report according to (1) its relative usefulness to them in arriving at appropriate or accurate recommendations of dispositions, and (2) their anticipation of its use by the court. The findings were re lated to biographical characteristics of the probation officers: age, education, professional journals subscribed to and read, opinions regarding the importance of psychological tests and psychiatric examination, job satisfaction, and amount of workload exclusive ly with juvenile offenders. Since a sizable minority (27.2 per cent) did not show significant agreement between their ranking of the report sections in terms of these two considerations, the differ ences in professional identification between two subgroups of the officers were examined for implications of communication and supervision. The majority group, evidencing significant agree ment in ranking the report sections from the two approaches, tended to have a primary professional identification as a proba tion officer ; the smaller subgroup identified professionally with the wider field of social casework.
Institutionalization: A Viable Alternative in the Treatment of Delinquent Adolescents?
Authors: Lollar Don
Published: March 2007

The present study used the Maslow hierarchy to evaluate relative need satisfaction of delinquent adolescents across different environ mental influences. The four most basic levels of the need hierarchy were utilized-physiological, physical safety and security, affec tion, and self-esteem. A forced-choice Need Satisfaction Schedule was administered to four groups, each with fifty adolescents in it. Each group represented a different physical and/or psychological environment to which many adolescent delinquents are exposed- two institutional and two extra-institutional environments were sampled. Significant differences occurred between the institutional and extra-institutional groups at three of the four need-satisfaction levels. The results favored the extra-institutional environment as more need satisfying for the adolescents. Implications of these re sults for institutional and extra-institutional treatment goals were discussed.
Parole Outcome
Authors: Solomon Herbert
Published: March 2007

This is a statistical study of the association of parole outcomes with a set of possible predictor variables that is accomplished by multidimen sional contingency table analysis. It is keyed to prior studies conducted by the Parole Decision Making Project of the National Council on Crime and Delinquency. These studies, based on data of approximately 2500 prisoners in the federal corrections system, suggest nine variables presently employed by the U. S. Parole Board in parole decisions. The present analysis, employing a different multivariate data technique, indicates only four of the nine variables are required. It also demonstrates that representing the four variables by a sum of scores can hide discrimination power available when each prisoner profile is viewed as a four-dimensional array of data. A Technical Appendix appears at the end of the paper and describes the methodology of con tingency table analysis within the context of prisoner profile data and parole outcome.
Studying the Needs of Offenders in Prerelease Centers
Authors: Duffee David E. , Duffee Barbara W.
Published: March 2007

Work in identifying specific needs of offenders returning to the community began only recently. There are available several surveys of parolees, but study of other offender groups is necessary. This paper discusses general problems offenders experience as they leave prison. An approach to the enumeration of needs among a halfway house population is then outlined, and basic agree ments and disagreements between staff and offenders are briefly discussed.
Reporting Crimes to the Police: The Status of World Research
Authors: SKOGAN WESLEY G.
Published: March 2007

Since the mid-1960s there has been a great deal of interest around the world in the use of sample surveys of the general population to study crime. The advantages of doing so have been discussed in detail many times (National Research Council, 1976; Biderman, 1967). Crime surveys have been conducted in many nations, a practice that is continuing despite their heavy cost. Large-scale national surveys have been conducted in the United States, the Netherlands, Australia, Great Britain, and Sweden. Smaller but regular national studies have been carried out in the rest of Scandinavia, and there has been a national survey in Spain. There have been large surveys of victimization in individual cities in Germany, Switzerland, and England. Statistics Canada has completed very large studies of seven major cities, including two surveys of Vancouver, and the Israeli Census Bureau has added victimization questions to a national survey. In addition, small but useful city studies have been conducted in Mexico, Colombia, Israel, and Belgium. The four islands that make up the Dutch Antilles also have been surveyed. The findings of these surveys have accumulated to the point where it is possible to perceive cross-national regularities—or clear inconsistencies—in what they reveal.
Social Area Influences on Delinquency: A Multilevel Analysis
Authors: GOTTFREDSON DENISE C. , McNEIL RICHARD J. , GOTTFREDSON GARY D.
Published: March 2007

One research tradition in criminology has focused on the distribution of crime rates among social areas, and a second tradition has examined the distribution of crime among individuals. Rarely are both traditions combined in a single study. This study explores social area influences on the delinquent behavior of 3,729 adolescents who are clustered within diverse social areas. The research examines mechanisms through which the characteristics of social areas—measured independently of the characteristics of the individuals—contribute to the explanation of individual delinquent conduct. Results imply that social areas have a small effect on individual delinquent behavior. Individuals living in areas characterized by weakened family units and social disorganization report more negative peer influence and less attachment and commitment to school than do individuals living in more organized areas. Results imply that these intermediary effects produce more male aggressive crime. Females in disorganized areas also report more aggressive crimes, but the effect is only partially mediated by the theoretical intervening variables in the model. On the other hand, males living in more affluent areas report more property crimes. This area effect is present regardless of the age, race, or socioeconomic status of the respondents and is not mediated by social bonding or delinquent associates.
The Politics of Law and Order: Case Study Evidence for a Conflict Model of the Criminal Law Formation Process
Authors: CASTELLANO THOMAS C. , McGARRELL EDMUND F.
Published: March 2007

An understanding of the origins of crime and justice legislation requires an analysis on three distinct levels. These include the structural foundations, the actual and perceived experience of crime in a social system, and the immediate triggering events of such legislation. In a companion article, we presented an integrative conflict model of the criminal law formation process that incorporates these three levels of analysis. In the present article, we present case study data from contemporary enactments of criminal law in New York State in relation to juvenile justice and gun control. The data suggest that the integrative conflict model does offer heuristic benefits for an understanding of the formation of crime and justice legislation.
A Comparison of Recidivism of Florida's Community Control and Prison: A Five-Year Survival Analysis
Authors: SMITH LINDA G. , AKERS RONALD L.
Published: March 2007

Florida's Community Control Program is the nation's largest intermediate sanction (home confinement) program for felons. The question addressed in this research is the effectiveness of this sanction compared to imprisonment, as measured by recidivism. The rearrest, reconviction, imprisonment, and recidivism survival of the first cohort of convicted felons sentenced to Community Control were tracked for nearly five years and compared to the recidivism of a partially matched group of convicted felons released from prison. The findings from the research show that the recidivism rates and survival curves of the two groups are essentially the same. Approximately 4 out of 5 felony offenders sentenced to Community Control or prison recidivated during the five-year study.
The Punitive Paradox: Desert and the Compulsion to Punish
Authors: CLEAR TODD R.
Published: March 2007

Proponents of “just deserts” argue that as a condition of justice, offenders who deserve to be punished must actually be punished. This article explores whether there is a desert paradox in which carrying out a deserved penalty breaches the values that undergird the theory of just deserts. Thus the article examines whether it might ever be proper, from a desert perspective, to choose not to impose a deserved punishment. The idea that this might be true was first suggested to the author by Don Gottfredson.
Perceived Risk of Crime in the Czech Republic
Authors: HRABA JOSEPH , BAO WAN-NING , LORENZ FREDERICK O. , PECHAČOVÁ ZDEŇKA
Published: March 2007

The authors examine models of the perceived increased risk of crime in the Czech Republic derived from both American criminology and research on the perception of risk. The sample is 740 households in the 1994 Czech Republic, with 577 husband and wife respondents, 146 single female household heads, and 17 single male household heads. Measures include criminal victimization, personal characteristics associated with exposure and vulnerability to crime, trust in government, economic stress, as well as perceived increased risk of crime since the postcommunist transformation. A victimology model of the perceived increased risk of crime based on exposure and vulnerability to crime is confirmed for the Czech Republic. Trust in government is also an independent and complementary contribution to explaining perceived increased risk of crime. The discussion includes an interpretation of the findings and their relevance to cross-national comparisons of perceived risk of crime.
On the Threshold of a New Century
Authors: Hamilton Mary Lynn , Pinnegar Stefinee
Published: March 2007

Teacher educators are talking about and calling for educational reform from many different perspectives. To augment this discussion, the authors ask a cycle of questions that probe possibilities regarding the knowledge base of teacher education and the importance of a foundation of teacher education, and they consider the possibility of trustworthiness as a cornerstone for that foundation. The authors look to the potential of self-study for developing a pedagogy of teacher education as a way to respond to current and emerging issues within the field.
Teaching as a Two-Way Street: Discontinuities among Metaphors, Images, and Classroom Realities
Authors: Dooley Cindy
Published: March 2007

What went well in the lesson? I don't think much of it did. I wasn't happy with my lesson. I couldn't get the right questions. My questions were good and I got them thinking. They came up with lots of great ideas and they're thinking about the dialect and how people speak and why that's important. I don't think they ever got to what I really wanted, that it aids in the reading and makes it more interesting. And that's what I wanted, just to give myself one question in my notes to say, that's the one, that's the one that will get them to find the answer.
The UK Economy
Authors: Kneller Richard , Riley Rebecca , Young Garry
Published: March 2007

One of the unusual features of the British economy in recent years has been the remarkable stability of inflation. RPIX inflation has not moved by more than half a percentage point of its 2½ per cent target since the end of 1996, suggesting that aggregate demand has been fairly close to supply throughout this period.
Living Standards in Britain 1900-2000: Women's Century?
Authors: Horrell Sara
Published: March 2007

Two composite measures are calculated to map improvements in living standards over the 20th century: the Dasgupta–Weale index and the Human Development Index. A gendered version of the latter is also considered. Indicators of income, leisure, inequality, wealth, health, education and political rights are included. The indices reveal a century of progress. But progress has been neither continuous nor uniformly shared. Downturns are evident in some of the indicators since 1980, demonstrating that the gains are not immutable and need to be protected. Women‘s position has improved if the end of the century is compared to its beginning, but there has been little change in women's position relative to men's over the last few decades on the dimensions considered here.
Section I. Recent developments and summary of the forecast
Authors: Blake Andrew P. , Young Garry
Published: March 2007

By the third quarter of this year, the economy had grown for thirty-three consecutive quarters since its trough in the second quarter of 1992. Such a long period of expansion inevitably raises questions about its sustainability. Chart 1 compares the paths for the level of output from the last two business cycle troughs in 1981 and 1992.
Open Issues On the Implementation of the Stability and Growth Pact
Authors: Buti Marco , Martinot Bertrand
Published: March 2007

Now that the budget deficits in the Euro Area are approaching balance, the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) looks like a largely non-constraining institutional framework with little impact on national fiscal policies. This article challenges this view and argues that the implementation of the SGP ‘at cruising speed’ is faced with a number of outstanding issues: safeguarding the automatic stabilisers under the SGP; coping with the consequences of the asymmetric nature of the SGP for the co-ordination of macroeconomic policies; and ensuring the long-run sustainability of public finances. It concludes that enlarging the scope and enhancing the credibility of the stability and convergence programmes to become a true instrument of fiscal policy coordination in the Euro Area would be a first step in lifting the uncertainties surrounding the implementation of the SGP.
Britain's Falling Share of Sterling Area Imports
Authors: Gilbert R. S. , Major R. L.
Published: March 2007

Britain's poor export performance during the course of last year was the more surprising because, for the first time for a number of years, the change in the area pattern of world trade was not unfavourable to her. Sterling area countries take about 40 per cent of Britain's exports of manufactures, but only about 10 per cent of those of the other main exporters of manufactures. From 1954 to 1959 overseas sterling area imports rose more slowly than world imports, and Britain lost from this. But last year sterling area imports rose relatively fast, and Britain should have gained.

The trouble was in 1960 that Britain's share in these imports fell much faster than before; she lost nearly 5 per cent of the market—this was more than twice as big a loss as the average from 1954 to 1959. This fall in share in 1960 was not big enough to stop Britain's exports of manufactures to the overseas sterling area from rising altogether; but it meant that they went up only 6 per cent in value, whereas those of her eight main competitors rose about 28 per cent.

Charts 1 and 2 look at this matter in longer perspective. The main point of the charts is simply this : it is Britain's share in sterling area markets which has fallen steeply since 1954 : her share in non-sterling area markets had, until 1960, hardly changed.
Labour Supplies: Trends and Prospects
Authors: Shepherd J. R.
Published: March 2007

The unemployment and vacancy figures suggest that labour is scarcer than at any time since 1957; and in June the FBI Inquiry showed a sharp increase in the number of employers who reported that they found labour more difficult to get than four months earlier (chart 1). This note looks at past and prospective trends in the supply of labour, in particular at the importance of the bulge in birth-rates after the war, the tendency for more women to join the labour force, and the significance of migration.
The Wages Structure and Some Implications for Incomes Policy
Authors: Dicks-Mireaux L. A. , Shepherd J. R.
Published: March 2007

During the last decade the relative earnings of different groups of manual workers have not changed to any marked extent. Such changes as have occurred have for the most part been unsystematic, except that there has been a tendency for unskilled rates to rise rather more than skilled rates. In highly-paid industries there has been no tendency for earnings to increase more or less than the average; women's earnings have not changed very markedly compared with men's; nor, as other studies have shown, is there any clear relationship between the relative rise in earnings and changes in the size of the labour force in different industries, or different rates of increase of productivity.
Pricing Behaviour in the Engineering Industry
Authors: Godley W. A. H. , Gillion C.
Published: March 2007

A memorandum recently submitted by the Purchasing Officers Association to the National Incomes Commission reports that there have recently been many increases (averaging 4-5 per cent) in the prices of engineering products, and suggests that many of these were not justified by changes in costs. Similar reports and conclusions have appeared in the press.
The Price of Accommodation
Authors: Hemming M. F. W. , Duffy H.
Published: March 2007

It is generally agreed that Britain has an acute housing problem, but the nature of this problem is not always understood. For the country as a whole it is not a problem of shortage, though there is a shortage in London and the South East. In future, most new houses will not be built to add to the total stock of houses, but to replace existing houses, millions of which are more than a century old and in very poor condition.
Forecasting Imports: A Re-Examination
Authors: Black I. G. , Kidgell J. E. , Ray G. F.
Published: March 2007

This article was prepared before the announcement of the devaluation of sterling on 18 November 1967

In August 1965, an article in this Review considered the problem of the short-term forecasting of imports into this country. It argued that some aggregate relationship was probably necessary, for forecasting total imports of goods and services, mainly because stockbuilding appeared to have an important and distinctive influence on imports. The import content of stockbuilding seemed to be much higher than the import content of other forms of expenditure. It was not possible to distinguish the separate influence of stockbuilding on different categories of imports—food, basic materials, fuel, and so on.
Forecasting Manufacturing Investment—Some Preliminary Results
Authors: Nobay A. R.
Published: March 2007

This article reports on some results obtained in the course of developing equations to explain, and predict, the behaviour of private manufacturing investment.

Apart from their analytical value, the estimation of formal relationships explaining investment provides a useful supplement for forecasting purposes to the information given by investment intentions surveys such as those carried out by the Board of Trade or the Confederation of British Industry; and for purposes of exploring variants of the main forecast, some formal investment relationships are of course indispensable.
The Productivity Effects of Selective Employment Tax
Authors: Whitley J.D. , Worswick G.D.N.
Published: March 2007

The Reddaway Report on the distributive trades argued that the imposition of SET had favourable effects upon productivity in retailing. On the face of it the reduction and ultimate abolition of the tax could be expected to be followed by correspondingly large adverse productivity effects. For a number of reasons, however, we doubt whether such an inference is justified.
The Productivity Effects of Selective Employment Tax
Authors: Reddaway W. B.
Published: March 2007

This article contains a number of comments on the one which appeared under the same title in the May 1971 issue of the National Institute Economic Review, which was prepared by J. D. Whitley and G. D. N. Worswick. It will be obvious to readers that some of the comments made in that article and in this reply are of the detailed kind which might with advantage have been cleared up by correspondence before publication. In fact, such an exchange of papers between the National Institute and the Department of Applied Economics was begun last year. However, the halving of SET announced in the budget obliged the National Institute to take a view on its probable effect, and they felt that this entailed explaining to their readers why they had not been wholly convinced by the analysis of the Reddaway Report. This left no time for any further attempts to reconcile, where possible, the differentpoints of view.
Incomes Policies and Inflation
Authors: Blackaby Frank
Published: March 2007

In recent years, theNational Institute Economic Review, in its appraisal of the economic situation, has often taken the line either that an incomes policy was needed, or that existing incomes policies should be strengthened. The term ‘incomes policy’ is a vague one: and the main purpose of this article is to be more specific.
The Productivity Effects of Selective Employment Tax
Authors: Whitley J.D. , Worswick G.D.N.
Published: March 2007

Our original note on the effects of the imposition of Selective Employment Tax (SET) was published as a background to the judgement expressed in the same number of the National Institute Economic Review that the reduction and removal of the tax would not have significant adverse effects upon productivity in distribution. Professor Reddaway's subsequent Reply gives general support to this judgement, which we are pleased to have. The difference between him and ourselves is solely concerned with the effects of the original imposition and subsequent increase of SET, which, we had argued, were smaller than appeared to be implied by the Reddaway Report.
Labour Costs and International Competitiveness
Authors: Ray G. F.
Published: March 2007

Figures published recently in Sweden illustrate the implications of Britain's failure to improve productivity in the 1960s as quickly as continental Western Europe. Though wage costs per unit of output in manufacturing industry have risen faster in Britain than in other major industrial countries, the statistics show that employers' total payments per hour of work are now lower here than in almost any industrial country except Japan.
II. Paper and Board
Authors: Ray G. F. , Davies S. W.
Published: March 2007

The demand for and supply of paper and board were studied in an article published in 1965 in the Review which surveyed past trends and contained forecasts for 1970 and also for 1975. The present article carries forward the analysis of trends, compares the previous forecast with the actual outcome for 1970, reassesses the prospects for 1975, and extends the forecast period to 1980.
The Short-Run Pricing Policies of Some British Engineering Exporters
Authors: Rosendale Miss P. B.
Published: March 2007

An investigation of the pricing policies of British exporters is of particular interest at the present time when devaluation has been used as a means of enabling them to improve their competitiveness. Although pricing policies have received some attention in recent research into the response of exports to changes in domestic demand pressure,(1) and the relative profitability of home and export sale,(2) no specific examination of pricing policies has been published since the current period of international monetary uncertainties began in 191.(3)
Some Aspects of the Progressive Income Tax Structure in the UK
Authors: Price R. W. R.
Published: March 2007

The yield of income tax varies automatically with movements in personal income as well as with discretionary changes in tax rates and allowances. In forecasting and for historical appraisal of fiscal policy there is a need to specify the automatic relationship between tax and income movements. In the former case this means specifying an accurate direct tax function in the forecasting model (i.e., identifying endogenous tax movements). From the descriptive, historical, point of view, it is possible to use such a function both to understand the ‘built-in’ properties of the budgetary system and, at the same time, to create a more complete picture of budgetary intervention than is given by the treatment of discretionary changes alone as indicators of fiscal policy. The latter procedure, which arises from the traditional British approach to budget-making (while not necessarily an inaccurate way of formulating policy), does tend to prevent an accurate picture of the complete Government intervention being formed by observers, and may result in expenditure, tax and monetary decisions being taken and analysed in a fragmented framework.
Forecasting Industrial Production
Authors: Davies S. W. , Scott T. W. K.
Published: March 2007

In February and August each year the National Institute publishes forecasts of growth in output for 24 separate industrial sectors which together comprise the index of industrial production. The forecasts are based mainly, though not entirely, upon macro-forecasts prepared by the Institute on the usual basis of assuming no change in government policies. This article contains a description and some tests of the econometric procedure used to derive the industrial forecasts from those yielded by the macro model. It must be emphasised, however, that the econometric procedure used to prepare the industrial forecasts represents only the first stage of a two-part method which yields the forecasts finally published in the Industrial Production chapter of the National Institute Economic Review. Although based upon the econometric forecasts, the final predictions incorporate adjustments made at the second stage of the procedure when up-to-date information on capacity constraints, strikes, tariffs and other factors is taken into account. In addition, adjustments may be necessary in the actual forecasting situation to ensure that the sum of the component forecasts adds up to the aggregate industrial production forecast (see page 61).
Tariff Reductions and UK Imports of Manufactures: 1955-1971
Authors: Morgan A.D. , Martin D.
Published: March 2007

Among the many factors that have contributed to the rapid growth of UK imports of manufactures over the last fifteen years or so, tariff reductions, both general and preferential, are usually mentioned as being one. Hitherto, however, the effect of all such reductions has not been quantified though some studies of the effect of EFTA membership on imports have been made. This article attempts to repair the omission by calculating the extent of the tariff cuts and by examining their effect on two broad groups of manufactures–semi-manufactures and finished goods.
The New Cambridge and ‘Monetarist’ Criticisms of ‘Conventional’ Economic Policy-Making
Authors: Bispham J.A.
Published: March 2007

Over recent years there has been increasing criticism of what may be called ‘conventional’ economic policy-making The methods of forecasting and analysis used at the National Institute and elsewhere are at the centre of this type type of policy formation, and, although there have certainly been forecasting errors, the conclusion of this article is that nothing better has been proposed. This is certainly true of the New Cambridge view of the balance of payments which always had many theoretical difficulties, but which has now, it is demonstrated, also fallen down empirically.

The school which is here labelled Monetarist is defined rather widely and probably includes somewhat divergent strains of thinking. They have in common however that they reject the cost-push explanation of inflation in favour of a monetary/excess demand theory. Attention is restricted to those who have commented on the UK situation. It is the central contention of this section of the article that the case is not proven by the sorts of ‘evidence’ which tend to be adduced. It is much more likely that the relatively painless monetarist cure for inflation is not a real option at all, but a mirage resulting from excessive concentration on statistical correlations of quarterly post-war data. A much broader view considers the important implications of the shift from the pre-war world to the ‘full employment welfare state’.
The Debate on Fine-Tuning: the Basic Issues
Authors: Budd A.P.
Published: March 2007

‘Fine-tuning’ can be defined as frequent discretionary adjustments to policy instruments. This article attempts to isolate this issue from a multiplicity of criticisms directed at UK economic policy-making. The attack on fine-tuning itself by the New Cambridge and the Manchester monetarist schools is shown to be connected essentially with the view that the economy is stable (i.e. returns to equilibrium in the absence of discretionary intervention). Nevertheless, even if the economy is stable, optimal control theory suggests that policy adjustments could be desirable, essentially because they could, at least in principle, speed the return to equilibrium. A more fundamental question concerns the way in which the private sector form their expectations; if they are ‘rational’, that is based on information at least as good as the authorities', then the grounds for discretionary intervention by the authorities are greatly diminished. These issues all require further empirical investigation.
The Effects of the Price Code
Authors: Evely Richard
Published: March 2007

Manufacturers' and distributors' views on the effects of the Price Code towards the end of Stage 4 are summarised in this article. Since the onset of the recession, market conditions rather than price controls have determined price-levels. Market constraints have limited the use of profit safeguards and low profit relief as well. The Price Code, however, was widely blamed for contributing to lower profit-margins, particularly in its earlier stages; this was mainly because of the productivity-deduction, lack ofpricingflexibility, and delays in obtaining price increases. Less generally affected were investment, sales and marketing activities, and price-differentiation. Views on the changes to the Code required in a reviving economy are summarised.
Labour Costs in Oecd Countries, 1964-1975
Authors: Ray G.F.
Published: March 2007

British wage costs per hour, including social charges, had—by 1974—become the lowest among the fifteen industrial countries included in the comparison in this note; this competitive advantage of British industry was however partly or entirely offset by lower labour productivity. Hourly earnings in money terms were not rising outstandingly rapidly in Britain in this period, but since consumer prices increased faster, the improvement in real earnings was slower than in most other countries.