bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
تأثير إدارة الارباح في عوائد الاسهم دراسة تحليلية في سوق العراق للأوراق المالية
Authors: Ali Jassim Muhammad Anad  , Shatha Abdul-Hussein Jabr
Published: February 2023

هدفت الدراسة الى التعريف بطبيعة إدارة الأرباح واساليبها، وأبرز عواملها بشكل يساعد في تعزيز معلومات لأصحاب القرار، وتحديد ما إذا كان ممارسة ظاهرة إدارة الأرباح تؤثر على هيكل رأس المال للشركات عينة البحث. وتم الإعتماد على نموذج جونز المعدل (1995) من أجل قياس إدارة الأرباح، تكون مجتمع البحث من الشركات المدرجة كافة في سوق العراق للأوراق المالية للمدة (2010-2019)، اما عينة البحث فشملت (26) شركة انطبقت عليها الشروط الشركات، وقد توصلت الدراسة الى ان (57%)  من الشركات عينة البحث قد مارست إدارة الارباح طيلة مدة البحث (2010-2019)، اما الشركات المتبقية فقد كانت ممارستها بمدد متفاوتة، كما تبين عدم وجود تأثير لإدارة الارباح في عوائد الاسهم  للشركات عينة البحث.
Design and Implementation of a Healthcare Monitoring System Based on LoRa
Authors: Hayder Fadhil Jawad  , Ali Al-Askery  , Adnan Hussein Ali
Published: February 2023

For humans to survive, scientific and technological advancements must be able to contribute to the solution of human medical issues. The design and implementation of a monitoring system for the measurement of blood oxygen saturation, heart rate, and body temperature have been combined into one tool in this study. The measurement results are shown both on the measuring instrument's OLED display and a remote monitoring system's LCD display. This instrument uses ESP32 as a Microcontroller and LoRa as a wireless communication technique. The MLX90614 sensor is used to detect body temperature, while the MAX30100 sensor is used to monitor blood oxygen saturation and heart rate. Testing Measurements are calibrated using instruments that meet industrial standards (Wincom infrared thermometer and GE patient monitor) used in the hospital. When compared to industry-standard instruments, the tool's accuracy is 98.18% for measurements of blood oxygen saturation, 96.54 % for measurements of heart rate, and 98.78 % for measurements of body temperature. The instrument's total accuracy, calculated as the average of all three factors, was 97.63 %. If the abnormalities in the recorded parameters are detected, then an alert will be triggered (buzzer and blinking LED). this instrument can help the patients to check their health status and provide remote monitoring of health providers.
The Impact of Smart Marketing on Achieving Marketing Superiority: An Applied Study in Iraqi Telecommunication Companies
Authors: Dalal Jasim Musher AL- Madhee
Published: February 2023

This research aimed to know the impact of smart marketing on achieving marketing Superiority for a sample of administrative leaders in Iraqi telecommunication companies, to achieve this objective, a hypothetical model has been formulated consisting of two main variables. The independent variable is represented by smart marketing through three dimensions: (Digital Cooperative Marketing, Human Capital Empowerment, and Social Capital Cooperation) whereas, the dependent variable is marketing superiority that which consists of three dimensions, namely (Customer Value, Satisfaction Customer, and Loyalty Customer). This research adopted the descriptive analytical approach, and a questionnaire as a tool for collecting research data as (150) valid questionnaires, it is analyzed after has been distributed among the administrative leaders in the Iraqi telecommunication companies. In addition to conducting personal interviews to clarify the topic and the paragraphs of the questionnaire. The data were analyzed and the hypothesis was tested by using appropriate statistical tools through the use of a statistical analysis program (SPSS V. 26). The research reached a set of conclusions and the most important one was that the employment of smart marketing in Iraqi telecommunication companies greatly contributed to the influence of marketing Superiority, which means that the dimensions of smart marketing have an impact on achieving marketing Superiority.
Dynamic contextual factors, individual agency and adoption of e-commerce in SMEs
Authors: Arsalan Nazir Muhammad , Saleem Khan Raza
Published: February 2023

This article provides an explanation of how dynamic contextual factors and individual agency influence the adoption of electronic commerce (e-commerce) in small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Pakistan. Eight multiple qualitative case studies were undertaken, involving 24 face-to-face semi-structured interviews and were thematically analysed using NVivo. This study found that the Technology-Organization-Environment (TOE) factors and additional extended micro-level (individual agency) factors strongly influenced the adoption of e-commerce practices by the managers of Pakistani SMEs. Managers need to address factors such as digital readiness, recruiting of skilled ICT expertise, reluctance of customers to switch their preference from traditional business selling methods to e-commerce, obtaining government and local institutional support, and recognizing the characteristics and individual agency of their owner-managers. On top of these factors, there is a strong need to improve the Information and communication technology (ICT) infrastructure in order for manager to prepare for and to embrace the e-commerce practices in their respective companies. This article extends Tornatzky and Fleischer’s TOE framework by adding the micro-level context of individual agency. Additionally, this article proposes practical implications for policymakers, governments, and local business support agencies.
Enabling Faculty Through Engagement: Insights to Human Resource Policy Directions
Authors: B. Arcega Ian
Published: February 2023

The goal of fostering engagement is to make institutions more competitive. This is done through education, motivation of leaders, and commitment in social interactions. This is a descriptive research, which ascertained the level of engagement and work status of the faculty of Capiz State University that leads to changes in organizational performance. The researcher made a questionnaire as the tool in data collection, which underwent reliability testing and validation from the Human Resource Practitioners of various public agencies. The 131 regular faculty members who have worked at Capiz State University-Main Campus for one year or longer make up the respondents. The findings show that the faculty have high levels of autonomy, competence, and relatedness; they are dedicated to the work and value positive working affairs with one another; and they have positive work relationships with the institution. The faculty believed that family culture is present; they tend to engage if they felt given importance. Thus, if the faculty's needs are supported and prioritized by the institution in providing quality work-related needs, they will facilitate faculty engagement towards achieving the institution's vision and goals.
Does Competition Intensity of SMEs Moderate the Environmental Turbulence-Organizational Agility Relationship?
Authors: Emirhan Kula Mehmet
Published: February 2023

Small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) among the essential economic cornerstones of our age, where many factors are constantly changing. Social paradigm shifts are both diverse and complex. In fact, the increasing number of SMEs as a result of this complexity also constitutes the reason for this complex structure. So much so that while entrepreneurs are the agents of social change, the driving force of economic change is SMEs. There are always opportunities and threats for businesses arise directly from the business and competitive environment hence analysing data from 1256 SME’s the study shows that competition intensity moderates the environmental turbulence-organizational agility relationship.
Edaravone Oral Suspension (Radicava)
Authors: CADTH
Published: February 2023

CADTH reimbursement reviews are comprehensive assessments of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, as well as patient and clinician perspectives, of a drug or drug class.

The assessments inform non-binding recommendations that help guide the reimbursement decisions of Canada's federal, provincial, and territorial governments, with the exception of Quebec.

This review assesses edaravone oral suspension (Radicava), 105 mg per 5 mL of suspension.

Indication: Treatment of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.
Involving men and boys in family planning is effective in increasing contraceptive use
Authors: Aventin Áine , Robinson Martin , Hanratty Jennifer , Keenan Ciara , Hamilton Jayne , Ruane McAteer Eimear , Tomlinson Mark , Clarke Mike , Okonofua Friday , Bonell Chris , Lohan Maria
Published: February 2023

Involving men and boys as both users and supporters of family planning is now considered essential for maternal and child health. It is recognised that men are the primary decisionmakers on family size in many countries and may control or inhibit women’s use of family planning. Men may also have unmet needs in relation to family planning. Evidence on how to engage men and boys to meet family planning needs is therefore important. It is equally important that family planning programmes and services engage men and boys in ways that support women’s and girls’ choices, as well as men’s own family planning needs. This brief shares learning from a systematic review of programme evaluation studies is about how to enhance future programming with men and boys to better meet the needs for family planning for women and men in low- and middle-income countries.
The influences of ozone precursor changes in tropical regions on tropospheric ozone burden
Authors: Zhang Yuqiang , Li Lin , Tang Tao , Gaudel Audrey , Sauvage Bastien , West J. Jason ,   Yuqiang Zhang
Published: February 2023

Tropospheric ozone is an important greenhouse gas, is detrimental to human health and crop and ecosystem productivity, and controls the oxidizing capacity of the troposphere. Previous studies, using models, aircraft and remote observation datasets, have shown that the tropospheric ozone has increased significantly in the tropical regions. Sensitivities studies have also showed that the ozone precursor emissions in these tropical regions have been increasing for the past three decades. For this paper, we will work with worldwide scientists to investigate how the emission evolves in the tropical regions from 1995 to 2019, and how these changes have contributed to the global and other receptor regions tropospheric ozone burden increases, by using ensemble state-of-the-art global and regional chemical transport models.
Analysis of Purple Coatings by the SuperCam Instrument on the Perseverance Rover in Jezero Crater, Mars
Authors: Ollila Ann , Chide Baptiste , Lanza Nina , Garczynski Brad , Schmidt Mariek , Gasda Patrick , Forni Olivier , Cousin Agnes , Dehouck Erwin , Wiens Roger , Maurice Sylvestre , Nachon Marion , Johnson Jeff , Clegg Sam ,   SuperCam Team
Published: February 2023

The NASA Perseverance rover has encountered numerous instances of purplish colored surficial material on rocks and pebbles throughout its traverse across the Jezero crater floor and the delta front. These enigmatic materials are visible on many different rock types and can vary in apparent thickness, from being very thin (microns) to several mm thick, and potentially forming in more than one layer. On Earth, such thin layers may form from a variety of processes, e.g., as coatings deposited on rock surfaces, exposed fracture fills, and/or alteration rinds/case hardening. The purple materials observed at Jezero typically unconformably overlie eroded natural rock surfaces, suggesting these features are possibly surface coatings of externally derived material. On Earth, coatings arise due to interactions between rock surfaces and the atmosphere, liquid water, and life. As such, they represent important targets for study on Mars.Using Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) and a microphone, SuperCam is able to analyze these coatings for chemical composition (LIBS) and material properties (recording the LIBS acoustic signal). By interrogating the same location with the LIBS laser multiple times, changes in composition and material properties with shot (depth) may be observed if the layer is thin enough. SuperCam has made 125-150 laser shot depth profiles on several of these coated rocks, at 4-5 locations on each. For each raster, we attempt to have at least one point on an uncoated area to compare with the coated surface profile. Whenever possible, SuperCam analyses of coatings were made at locations adjacent to a rover-made abrasion patch, where the upper ~mm is abraded off to expose the underlying rock. Here we focus on comparing compositions of depth profiles on purple coatings that are directly adjacent to abrasion patches; these targets are Cordoeil (sol 268), near the abrasion patch Dourbes, Chokecherry (sol 378) which is near the Alfalfa abrasion patch, and Pile_Bay (sol 582) located by the Novarupta patch. Coating compositions from these targets roughly matches that of the fine martian dust (e.g., Lasue et al., 2018, doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079210), potentially indicating a link between the two. Airfall dust is an important contributor to rock coating formation on Earth and may likewise play a role for coating formation on Mars.       
Applying a scaling approach for extreme precipitation to disentangle thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to CORDEX-FPS simulations​
Authors: Ritzhaupt Nicole , Sobolowski Stefan P. , Maraun Douglas ,   the CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study on Convection over Europe and the Mediterranean – ensemble
Published: February 2023

The response of the hydrological cycle to global warming is one of the greatest concerns of climate change. Especially, extreme precipitation can lead to severe physical and economic impacts on human and natural systems. Though extreme precipitation is expected to increase over many land areas an important question remains: which factors drive the uncertainty in extreme precipitation? Answering this will help better understand, prepare for, and ultimately, predict future extreme precipitation. In this study, we use a scaling approach for extreme precipitation events developed by O’Gorman and Schneider (2009) to disentangle the thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to these events. Extreme precipitation is scaled by the vertical integral over the product of the vertical velocity (ω; dynamic contribution) and the derivation of the saturation specific humidity (; thermodynamic contribution): . We apply this scaling approach to a subset of the CORDEX-FPS ensemble and focus on change signals of seasonal extremes of daily precipitation for two 10-year periods (2090-2099 vs 1996-2005). By keeping either the first term or the second term in the formula constant over the entire time period we obtain the thermodynamic and dynamic signal, respectively. The thermodynamic signal is quite homogeneous over the domain, approximately in the order of Clausius-Clapeyron scaling (~ 7%/K), while the dynamic signal modifies the thermodynamic signal. Thus, the dynamic contribution, which is represented by vertical wind, is key in understanding differences between models and uncertainty in precipitation changes. The vertical wind profiles show, especially for summer, that the vertical winds during extreme events weaken in the future period compared to the historical period. This seemingly counterintuitive result could be due to more downdrafts leading to extreme precipitation in the future period instead of updrafts. However, a comprehensive interpretation is the subject of ongoing research.
Dust Storm Effects on Water Vapor and Hydrogen on Mars in the MPCM and as seen by EMM
Authors: AlMazmi Hoor ,   EMM Team
Published: February 2023

The Emirates Mars Mission (EMM) Hope Probe observes at diurnal and subseasonal timescales, while having a vertical coverage that allows it to couple the lower atmosphere to the upper atmosphere. EMM observes lower atmosphere conditions through its two instruments EXI and EMIRS, and the upper atmosphere with the EMUS instrument. This work uses outputs from the Mars Planetary Climate Model (MPCM) to understand the effects of dust storms on water vapor in the Martian atmosphere and the resulting escape of hydrogen. We compare our model results to what is observed in the Martian atmosphere through the Hope Probe instruments and use our understanding of the model to evaluate regions that are not covered vertically by EMM instrumentation in order to understand dust storm effects on the water vapor’s circulation and eventual rise in altitude to the middle atmosphere leading to hydrogen escape.
Scale size of cometary bow shocks
Authors: Edberg Niklas J. T. , Eriksson Anders I. , Nilsson Hans , Gunell Herbert , Goetz Charlotte , Richter Ingo , Henri Pierre , de Keyser Johan
Published: February 2023

With the upcoming Comet Interceptor mission aiming for a flyby of an hitherto unknown long-period comet, we investigate the expected scale size of the plasma environment to be encountered during this mission. As the target comet is not known, and may not be known before the launch of Comet Interceptor in 2029, we do not know the expected outgassing rate from the nucleus. Therefore, we have no knowledge of the expected scale size of the plasma environment, which can vary by orders of magnitude. Taking the bow shock size as a characteristic size of the plasma environment, we are interested in knowing how this grows with increasing outgassing rate. Previous cometary flyby missions have generated a small statistical dataset of outgassing rates vs. bow shock distances, while computer simulations of the solar wind interaction with various comets have yielded additional datapoints of this. We combine the measured values with a large fraction of these simulations to build up a dataset that spans over four orders of magnitude in both outgassing rate and bow shock distance. The bow shock distances are normalized to the solar wind conditions (400 km/s, 5 cm-3) and ionisation rate (7e-7 s-1) at 1 AU, and also to a flow velocity of 1 km/s of the outgassing neutrals. We then compare this dataset with the gas-dynamic model of Biermann et al., (1967) which was later expanded by Koenders et al., (2013) and find a good model-data agreement. Furthermore, assuming that the bow shock takes the shape of a conic section (as has been found empirically to be the case for most planetary bow shocks) we provide an outgassing rate-dependent bow shock model. This might be useful when planning the operation time-line of Comet Interceptor, or for any other future cometary flyby mission.
Numerical comparison of five soil microbial models, in relation to measurable soil organic matter fractions
Authors: Balugani Enrico , Pesce Simone , Zuliani Celeste , Marazza Diego
Published: February 2023

The last decade has seen an increase of innovative soil carbon models that takes explicitly into account the microbial community interaction with the soil organic matter, and various state of protection of the soil organic matter itself. This proliferation is fuelled by (a) the recognition that microbial ecology is the main determinant of soil organic carbon mineralization, and (b) that soil organic matter can be protected from microbial degradation in various ways. Of particular interest is the interaction of the organic matter with the mineral fraction of the soil, which can lead to mineral adsorbtion and the formation of soil aggregates. However, the uncertainties about soil microbial ecology and organic matter – mineral fraction have led to the formulation of various soil microbial models, each one modelling some of the aspects of the complex net of interacting processes, but not other. These models often use different assumptions, model structures, and pool definitions. The lack of comparability among models, and the low comparability of models with measurable data, makes it hard to discriminate among them and to use them to assess the driving processes relevant for soil carbon dynamics depending on climatic, soil and vegetation conditions.A first attempt to compare some of these models has been presented in Sulman et al. (2018); however, the lack of a harmonization framework for the models, and the use of lumped model pools/flows such as soil respiration and bulk soil organic carbon, have led to the conclusion that the uncertainties are too elevated to discriminate among the models.Here, we propose a framework to harmonize five different soil microbial models among them (MEND, CORPSE, MIMIC, DEMENT, RESOM), and harmonize them with measurable soil organic matter fraction widely recognized as related to processes of interaction with the soil mineral fraction (aggregates, mineral associated organic matter, dissolve organic matter, and particulate organic matter). We reformulated the five models based on this framework, and analysed them on the same parameter space to understand in which regions of said space the models gave results that were substantially different.The results show that: (a) the model can be clearly distinguished in most regions of the parameters space, (b) it is possible to calculate an index of robustness of the models. This information can help in design specific experiments to test the models and, this way, get insights about the driving processes in certain conditions (different climates, soils, vegetations); moreover, the robustness index can give indication about their applicability to different conditions, which is of utmost importance if they are to inform Earth System Models.
Is the lithospheric flexure strong enough to hold up the Tharsis Rise? A re-analysis of flexure on Mars
Authors: Qin Weilun , Root Bart
Published: February 2023

The largest volcanos in our Solar System are part of a huge volcanic complex, named Tharsis Rise, which is located on the Martian surface several kilometers higher than the average topography. Moreover, the gravitational field of Mars shows a strong and large signal centered on top of the region, a positive anomaly (+300 mGal) surrounded by a negative ring (-300 mGal). Flexural theory is commonly used to understand the relationship between observed topography, crustal structure and gravity, revealing structures that support the volcanic complex.The new information about the Martian lithosphere thanks to NASA’s Insight mission deserves a re-analysis of the lithosphere flexure models. The Martian lithosphere can be modeled by infinite plate and the thin shell flexure models. The latter takes into account the curvature effect responsible for supporting extra surface loads. We see that the need for compensation based on buoyancy is even lower at long wavelength than that of the classic infinite plate model. This has consequences for the interpretation of density structure underneath the volcanic regions.After conducting spectral analysis on the topographic and gravity results from the flexural models, we found that the gravitational signal of Martian topography with thin shell compensation fits well with the observed free-air anomaly for degrees n≥2 . The best-fit elastic thickness (Te) is found to be 105 ±5 km and we observe a crustal density of 3050 ± 50 kg/m3. Despite the use of the thin shell flexure model, we notice a mismatch between modeled and observed gravity field between n=2-4 degrees, which suggests an active large-scale dynamic support of the Tharsis Rise. This could explain relatively the young geologic evidence for surface volcanism on Mars. 
Neural ODE Models in Large-Sample Hydrology
Authors: Höge Marvin , Scheidegger Andreas , Baity-Jesi Marco , Albert Carlo , Fenicia Fabrizio
Published: February 2023

Neural Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE) models have demonstrated high potential in providing accurate hydrologic predictions and process understanding for single catchments (Höge et al., 2022). Neural ODEs fuse a neural network model core with a mechanistic equation framework. This hybrid structure offers both traceability of model states and processes, like in conceptual hydrologic models, and the high flexibility of machine learning to learn and refine model interrelations. Aside of the functional dependence of internal processes on driving forces, like of evapotranspiration on temperature, Neural ODEs are also able to learn the effect of catchment-specific attributes, e.g. land cover types, on processes when being trained over multiple basins simultaneously. We demonstrate the performance of a generic Neural ODE architecture in a hydrologic large-sample setup with respect to both predictive accuracy and process interpretability. Using several hundred catchments, we show the capability of Neural ODEs to learn the general interplay of catchment-specific attributes and hydrologic drivers in order to predict discharge in out-of-sample basins. Further, we show how functional relations learned (encoded) by the neural network can be translated (decoded) into an interpretable form, and how this can be used to foster understanding of processes and the hydrologic system. Höge, M., Scheidegger, A., Baity-Jesi, M., Albert, C., & Fenicia, F.: Improving hydrologic models for predictions and process understanding using Neural ODEs. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 26, 5085-5102, https://hess.copernicus.org/articles/26/5085/2022/
Spatial modeling of cryospheric hazards: predicting retrogressive thaw slumps in Alaska
Authors: Elia Letizia , Castellaro Silvia , Lombardo Luigi
Published: February 2023

Classifying a given landscape on the basis of its susceptibility to surface processes is a standard procedure in low to mid latitudes. Conversely, these procedures have hardly been explored in peri-glacial regions, mostly because of the limited presence of human settlements and thus of the need for risk assessment. However, global warming is radically changing this situation and will change it even more in the years to come. For this reason, understanding the spatial and spatio-temporal dynamics of gemorphological processes in peri-arctic environments can be crucial to make informed decision in such unstable environments but also to shed light on what changes may follow at lower latitudes. For this reason, here we explored the use of artificially intelligent models capable of recognizing locations prone to develop retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS). These are cryospheric hazards induced by permafrost degradation and their development can negatively affect human settlements or infrastructure, change the sediment budget dynamics and release greenhouse gases. Specifically, we test a binomial Generalized Additive Modeling structure to estimate probability of RTS occurrences/development in the North sector of the Alaskan territory. The results we obtain show that our binary classifier is able to accurately recognize locations prone to RTS, in a number of goodness-of-fit and cross-validation routines. Overall, our analytical protocol has been implemented with the idea in mind of building an open source tool scripted in Python. 
A case study of impacts of the extreme weather system on ocean circulation features in the Mediterranean Sea: Medicane Apollo (2021)
Authors: Martellucci Riccardo , Menna Milena , Reale Marco , Cossarini Gianpiero , Salon Stefano , Notarstefano Giulio , Mauri Elena , Poulain Pierre-Marie , Gallo Antonella , Solidoro Cosimo
Published: February 2023

In October 2021, the Sicily Channel and the central-western Ionian Sea were affected by the passage of the tropical-like cyclone, or MEDICANE, Apollo. The system reached its maximum intensity between 29 and 30 October 2021 producing several damages, intense precipitations and huge coastal floodings in Sicily and Calabria regions. The surface circulation in the MEDICANE impacted area was characterized by permanent cyclonic vortices, offering the chance to describe the impact of a tropical-like cyclone on a pre-existing cold circulation structure. Atmospheric and ocean reanalyses (ERA5 and Marine Copernicus Service), as well as in-situ data from Argo floats, were used to describe the temporal evolution of Apollo, the resulting air-sea interaction, the thermohaline and biological response to its passage in the upper layer (0-150 m) of the western Ionian Sea. During the event, the core of the marine cyclone was characterized by a dramatic drop in temperature, corresponding to a local maximum in the wind-stress curl, Ekman pumping and current field relative vorticity. The strengthening of the cyclonic circulation led by the wind stress curl produced a strong vertical mixing in the surface layer (from 0 m to the Mixed Layer Depth - MLD) and an upwelling in the subsurface layer below the thermocline (MLD-150 m). The combined effect of vertical mixing and upwelling resulted in a shoaling of MLD, deep chlorophyll-a maximum, nutricline, and halocline. Oxygen and chlorophyll-a concentrations increased at surface, due to the enhanced oxygen solubility in the cooler water and higher productivity due to the increase of nutrients upwelled to the surface layer. These results show that the pre-existing cyclonic vortex along Apollo's trajectory leads to a different physical response compared to the one observed during previous MEDICANEs, confirming the influence of the conditions in place in driving the ocean’s reply to the extreme weather systems.
Mapping Forest Age at High-Resolution Using Inventory Data
Authors: Besnard Simon , Santoro Maurizio , Herold Martin , Cartus Oliver , Gütter Jonas , Herault Bruno , Kassi Justin , Koirala Sujan , N'Guessan Anny , Neigh Christopher , Nelson Jacob , Poulter Benjamin , Weber Ulrich , Zhang Tao , Carvalhais Nuno
Published: February 2023

The forest age can be defined as the time since the last stand-replacement event. Within the local context, it determines the forest successional stage, a fundamental variable for diagnosing the net carbon fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems. To accurately quantify the carbon sink-source strength in these ecosystems and inform adaptation-mitigation strategies, it is essential to be able to infer forest age at high resolution.This study presents an updated version of the MPI-BGC forest age product, featuring global distributions of forest age for 2010, 2017, 2018, and 2020 at 100m spatial resolution. We employed two machine learning approaches, XGBoost and a multi-layer perceptron model, to create data-driven estimates of forest age based on over 40,000 forest inventory plots, biomass, remote-sensing, and climate data. One key innovation of our approach is the incorporation of Landsat-based disturbance history metrics as input variables. Our updated estimates show better precision in identifying old-growth forests and reduce overestimation biases in young forests and underestimation biases in old forests, but not completely. Additionally, we found substantial regional variations related to changes in covariate strength and improvement in the model. Also, we discussed the uncertainty layers, created using model ensembles, that materialize the quantification of methodological uncertainty in the forest age estimates.An analysis of the global distribution of forest age reveals significant variations across the years studied. We also quantified the changes in forest age in regions with high deforestation or forest degradation rates, where younger stands are becoming more prevalent. We discuss the challenges and limitations of using regression-based mapping approaches, including the choice of machine learning algorithm, spatial cross-validation techniques, and the caveats of extrapolation, given data limitations. Our research highlights the complementary biomass-based approaches for determining forest age and underscores the importance of detailed global estimates at high spatial resolutions. Overall, this study advances our understanding of forest age, a key variable for understanding the carbon cycle in terrestrial ecosystems.
Middle Eocene to the early Miocene northward migration of northern Zealandia determined from the sedimentary record of IODP Exp. 371 (Tasman Sea)
Authors: Dallanave Edoardo , Sutherland Rupert , Dickens Gerald , Chang Liao , Tema Evdokia , Alegret Laia , Agnini Claudia , Westerhold Thomas , Newsam Cherry , Lam Adriane , Stratford Wanda , Collot Julien , Etienne Samuel , von Dobeneck Tilo
Published: February 2023

Northern Zealandia is a continent submerged for more than 90% under the water of the southwest Pacific Ocean and separated from Australia by the Tasman Sea ocean basin. Its absolute position since its drift form Australia in the Cretaceous is determined by means of global absolute plate motion models, as local paleomagnetic constraints are completely missing. We present new absolute paleolatitudes for northern Zealandia using paleomagnetic data from sediments drilled in International Ocean Discovery Program Sites U1507 and U1511 (Expedition 3711,2). After correcting for paleomagnetic inclination shallowing, typical of sediments, we derived five paleolatitude estimates that provide a trajectory of northern Zealandia past position from the middle Eocene to early Miocene, spanning geomagnetic polarity chrons C21n to C5Er (~48–18 Ma). Generally, our results support previous works on global absolute plate motion, including a rapid 6° northward migration of northern Zealandia between the early Oligocene–early Miocene. However, paleomagnetic-determined absolute paleolatitude is systematically lower, and this difference is significant in the Bartonian and Priabonian (C18n–C13r). This discrepancy may be explained by some degree of true polar wander, a solid Earth rotation with respect to the spin axis that can be resolved only using paleomagnetic data. These new paleomagnetic dataset anchors past latitudes of Zealandia to Earth’s spin axis, with implications not only for global geodynamics, but for addressing paleoceanographic problems, which generally require precise paleolatitude placement of proxy data3.Figure 1. Present-day map of northern and southern Zealandia, enveloped respectively by the yellow and orange dashed line. The yellow stars indicate the location of International Ocean Discovery Program Sites U1507 (26.4886°S, 166.5286°E) and U1511 (37.5611°S, 160.3156°E). Solid and dashed white lines indicate active and inactive subduction zones, respectively, with arrows lying on the overriding plate. LHR = Lord Howe Rise, NCT = New Caledonia trough, NR = Norfolk Ridge, RB = Reinga basin.(1) Sutherland, R. et al. Proc. Int. Ocean Discov. Progr. 371, 1–33 (2019); (2) Dallanave, E. & Chang, L. Newsletters Stratigr. 53, 365–387 (2020); (3) Dallanave, E. et al. J. Geophys. Res. Solid Earth 127, 1–19 (2022).
Evaluation of Predictive Skill of Flash Droughts over China based on S2S Forecast Models
Authors: Ma Ruxuan , Yuan Xing
Published: February 2023

Flash droughts have been occurring frequently worldwide, which has a serious impact on food and water security. Flash droughts have raised a wide concern, but whether they can be predicted at sub-seasonal time scale remains unclear. We investigate the forecast skill of flash droughts over China with lead times up to three weeks by using model hindcasts from the sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction (S2S) project. The flash droughts are identified by using weekly soil moisture percentiles from two S2S forecast models (ECMWF and NCEP). The comparison with reanalysis shows that ECMWF and NCEP forecast models underestimate flash drought occurrence. The ensemble of the two models increases equitable threat score from ECMWF and NCEP models for lead 1 week. In terms of probabilistic forecast, ECMWF also has higher brier skill score than NCEP especially over Eastern China, which is consistent with higher temperature and precipitation forecast skill and flash drought predictability of ECMWF model. The multi-model ensemble shows a higher skill than ECMWF model. This study suggests the importance of multi-model ensemble flash drought forecasting.
A model ensemble-elasticity-stress test for drought impact on spring discharge and low flow
Authors: Stahl Kerstin , Hellwig Jost , Stoelzle Michael
Published: February 2023

Increasingly severe drought events demand a basis for prioritizing water uses and protection goals. In addition to classical methods of hydrological design, model experiments can support such aims. They can help investigate the response of hydrological systems to scenarios of exacerbated drought forcing. For known events of the past they might ask: "how much more would water resources be depleted, if forcing conditions had been more severe?". In such a stress-testing approach, this study investigated the sensitivity of low flows and low spring discharges to a range of exacerbated antecedent forcing conditions for a multi-catchment and multi-spring dataset in southwest Germany. Different model realizations for the forcing groundwater recharge, a baseflow separation and various conceptual groundwater storage and release models were combined into a model ensemble and system responses were analyzed in terms of elasticity metrics. Stress was applied as a systematic reduction in groundwater recharge with different magnitudes over different time periods preceding the main event of drought impact. All scenarios caused further reductions in low flow and spring discharge compared to the reference simulations. The presentation elaborates systematic thresholds: for example, the low-flow response of some catchments becomes maximal after a few months, and in others only after two years of stress duration. The experiments illustrate the sensitivities within the study area and allow to expand the derived 'story' as: "in a hydrological systems with (certain, e.g.) hydrogeological characteristics, low flows as in a (certain) memorable summer might be further depleted up to a (certain) maximum additional amount under (certain) drier preceding conditions". However, the importance of a specifically adapted model architecture as well as the estimation of model-related uncertainties becomes apparent from the ensemble experiment. Applied for selected well-validated model structures, the approach can help elucidate and communicate potential limits of drought stress.
A non-hydrostatic stress state forms fabrics during metamorphic reactions
Authors: Gilgannon James , Freitas Damien , Rizzo Roberto , Wheeler John , Butler Ian , Seth Sohan , Marone Federica , Schlepütz Christian , McGill Gina , Watt Ian , Plümper Oliver , Eberhard Lisa , Amiri Hamed , Chogani Alireza , Fusseis Florian
Published: February 2023

Many metamorphic rocks have a fabric. What is often not clear is how much deformational or metamorphic processes contributed to the formation of these fabrics. Are foliations always the result of strain? When does intrinsic crystallographic anisotropy alone lead to the formation of structural elements? Understanding the relative contributions of deformation and metamorphism in rock fabrics is fundamentally important because it is foundational to understanding the role of stress in reacting and deforming rocks.To this end, we make a major advance in our understanding of fabric development in reacting rocks by showing in time-resolved (4D) synchrotron microtomography (µCT) experiments that when a gypsum dehydration reaction occurs in a differentially stressed sample the reaction products develop orthogonally to the largest principal stress. This is an important finding because we can show with our µCT data that this preferred orientation forms early in the reaction and at very small strains (<1%). Using a simple kinematic model we can demonstrate that it cannot have formed because of reorientation during mechanical compaction. It remains to be established if it is nucleation or growth of bassanite that is being affected by the stress or both. Our experiments suggest that metamorphic transformations may be inherently anisotropic when reacting under the influence of a non-hydrostatic stress state. The consequences of this are many. For example, there will be cases in natural rocks where the interpretation of a lineation, foliation or crystallographic preferred orientation as formed by strain may be incorrect. Moreover, the physical properties (e.g. hydraulic and mechanics) of metamorphic rocks could also be significantly anisotropic from early in a transformation. Mass transport pathways might initialise as channelled or partitioned conduits which would have an impact during subduction and in thin-skinned tectonics. Our data reveal a critical new finding related to the very common geological occurrence of reacting rocks experiencing a differential stress.
The chemical composition of the Soi crater region on Titan.
Authors: Solomonidou Anezina , Malaska Michael , Lopes Rosaly , Coustenis Athena , Schoenfeld Ashley , Schmitt Bernard , Birch Samuel , Le Gall Alice
Published: February 2023

The Soi crater region, with the well-preserved Soi crater in its center, covers almost 10% of Titan’s surface. Schoenfeld et al. (2023) [1] mapped this region at 1:800,000 scale and produced a geomorphological map showing that the area consists of 22 distinct geomorphological units. The region includes the boundaries between the equatorial regions of Titan and the mid-latitudes and extends into the high northern latitudes (above 50o). We analyzed 262 different locations from several Visual and Infrared Mapping Spectrometer (VIMS) datacubes using a radiative transfer technique [2] and a mixing model [3], yielding compositional constraints on Titan’s optical surface layer and near-surface substrate compositional constraints using RADAR microwave emissivity. We have derived combinations of top surface materials between dark materials, tholin-like materials, water-ice, and methane. We found no evidence of CO2 and NH3 ice. We discuss our results in terms of origin and evolution theories.[1] Schoenfeld, A., et al. (2023), JGR-Planets 128, e2022JE007499; [2] Solomonidou, A., et al., (2020a), Icarus, 344, 113338; [3] Solomonidou, A., et al. (2020b), A&A, 641, A16.
Impact of extreme hydro-meteorological events on the anoxia dynamics in a small urban lake
Authors: Vinçon-Leite Brigitte , Calabro-Souza Guilherme , Breton Felipe , Casenave Céline , Saad Mohamed , Dubois Philippe , Lemaire Bruno J. , Piccioni Francesco
Published: February 2023

Urban lakes provide essential ecosystem services (hotspot of biodiversity, stormwater management, reduction of pollutant loadings…).During late summer and early autumn 2021, two whole-lake anoxia events occurred in Lake Champs-sur-Marne (Great Paris, France).  This sandpit lake, principally fed by groundwater from the nearby Marne River, is continuously monitored by an autonomous station equipped with underwater sensors (water temperature, oxygen, Chlorophyll-a, CDOM, Nitrate). At the same point, a meteorological station is installed on a buoy, above the lake surface.During the two anoxia events (end of August and mid-September), oxygen concentration dropped from supersaturation level corresponding to a high peak of phytoplankton biomass, to 0% within a few days. During this summer period, successive heavy rainfall events occurred, causing a flood of the Marne River and rising the watertable level to unusual values in Summer. This resulted in high water and nutrient fluxes from the river towards the lake. The observed whole-lake anoxia can be explained according to the following assumptions: (1) the groundwater nutrient loading, favored by the high level of the Marne River, caused a huge phytoplankton production; (2) then, the phytoplankton decline was associated to an intense mineralization of the biomass organic carbon; (3) the lake oxygen was completely exhausted, leading to a massive fish kill. These results highlight the severe impact of a non-extreme but high and long hydro-meteorological event on a lake ecosystem. In Lake Champs-sur-Marne, the nutrient limitation of phytoplankton production generally occurs during late summer. In 2021, the limitation was removed by the Summer exceptional nutrient loading. In temperate regions, summer algal blooms are not limited by water temperature but by nutrient availability. Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of extreme hydro-meteorological events.  Higher frequency of summer heavy rainfall may trigger repeated phytoplankton blooms, deteriorating the ecological status of lake ecosystems.
Simulating Miocene warmth: insights from an opportunistic Multi-Model ensemble (MioMIP1) and efforts towards a coordinated intercomparison (MioMIP2)
Authors: Burls Natalie
Published: February 2023

The Miocene epoch, spanning 23.03-5.33Ma, was a dynamic climate of sustained, polar-amplified warmth that peaked during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (16.75-14.5Ma). Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations are typically reconstructed between 300-600 ppmv with estimates as high as 800-1100 ppmv during the MCO. With surface temperature reconstructions pointing to substantial midlatitude and polar warmth, it is unclear what processes maintained the much weaker-than-modern equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Emanating from community discussions at MioMeet (hosted by the Bolin Centre for Climate Research in 2019), Burls et al. (2021) synthesize several Miocene climate modeling efforts, together with available terrestrial and ocean surface temperature reconstructions. The range of model-data agreement was evaluated, highlighting robust mechanisms operating across the Miocene modelling efforts, as well as the regions where the differences across models (coming from a combination of model differences in imposed non-CO2 Miocene boundary conditions and model feedback strengths) result in a large spread in warming responses. This MioMIP1 effort was an ensemble of opportunity: the models, boundary conditions, and reference datasets were state-of-the-art, but also inhomogeneous and not ideal for a formal intermodel comparison effort. Building on MioMIP1, the Miocene community is currently drafting the experimental design for a coordinated set of MioMIP2 simulations wherein participating modelling groups will use common boundary conditions. This talk will review the take-home findings from MioMIP1 and the status of the community’s MioMIP2 effort.
Probabilistic detection and tracking of icebergs in the Amundsen Sea embayment
Authors: Evans Ben , Hosking Scott , Fleming Andrew , Lowe Alan
Published: February 2023

Accurate estimates of iceberg populations, disintegration rates and iceberg movements are essential to understand ice sheet contributions to global sea level change and freshwater and heat balances. Knowledge and prediction of iceberg distributions is also important for the safety and efficiency of shipping operations in polar seas. The dynamics, persistence, fragmentation rates, melt rates and dispersal of icebergs are, however, poorly understood due to a lack of automated approaches for monitoring them. Better monitoring of icebergs would help parameterise the locations and quantities of freshwater and nutrient inputs within hydrographic and ecological models respectively and help mitigate collision hazards for navigation.Here we present a combination of Bayesian approaches to the identification of icebergs in synthetic aperture radar imagery and their subsequent tracking across multiple years. For detection we use a Dirichlet Process Mixture Model, while for tracking we adapt Bayesian Tracker, a probabilistic multi-object tracking algorithm originally developed for cell microscopy applications. We are able to reconstruct iceberg paths and lineages, which we validate against synthetic data and manual annotations. We demonstrate that icebergs across the size distribution can be tracked successfully from their point of calving in dense fields of objects, through dispersal and fragmentation, to distal locations.