Support for risk-based fire safety management in the residential sector based on
the analysis of the fire risk structure
Authors:   University of the
            Prosecutor', Chistyakova Anna Anatolyevna ,   s Office of the Russian
            Federation,   Russian
            Federation, Prus Mikhail Yuryevich ,   Moscow State University of
            Technology "STANKIN"
Published: December 2024

Introduction. A promising direction in the theory of fire risks is associated with
the formation of the concept of multicomponent risk, which represents a single set of
quantitative and qualitative characteristics of threats and consequences, reflecting in
its structure the influence of the main risk factors. Goals and objectives. Development
of risk-based management methods and their application in territorial fire safety
systems. The subject of the study is mathematical models for predicting losses, taking
into account the vulnerability indicators of individual population groups and data on
the availability and technical condition of fire safety systems. Methods. An approach to
the study of the structure of multicomponent fire risk is proposed, based on stochastic
modeling of the processes of performing fire protection functions and their impact on
the composition of projected losses, taking into account the vulnerability of individual
population groups when exposed to fire hazards. The modeling uses vector-matrix and
multi-index representations of multicomponent fire risks in the residential sector as a
result of the interaction of components associated with groups of model elements,
reflecting, respectively, the possibility of threats, as well as the degree of
vulnerability of the population when exposed to fire hazards, taking into account the
functioning of existing technical means of fire protection and other factors affecting
the rescue of people in case of fire. The proposed approach makes it possible to detail
the objects of protection by exposure to dangerous factors and the degree of
vulnerability, as well as the totality of possible consequences of dangerous events by
type of damage. The tasks of ensuring the required level of fire safety of residential
buildings are considered on the basis of optimizing a set of measures to prevent and
prevent fires. The results and their discussion. The application of the multicomponent
fire risk model and vector-matrix representation allows for a comparative analysis of
the effectiveness of measures aimed at modernizing and improving fire safety systems
based on forecasting the expected reduction in losses. The possibility of setting the
task of multi-criteria optimization allows you to create a convenient mathematical and
software toolkit for supporting resource management solutions, which can be used to
justify the effectiveness of planned financial investments and the cost of other
resources for the modernization and improvement of fire safety systems. Conclusions. The
expediency of forming information and analytical support systems for risk-based
management in territorial fire safety systems is shown. Keywords: management decision;
protection objects; risk groups; fire protection functions; protection systems; fire
hazards; automatic fire extinguishing; modeling.