bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Lost in Translation: Settlement Organization in Postpalatial Crete—A View from the East
Authors: Hitchcock Louise A. , Maeir Aren M.
Published: November 2020

This contribution will consider problems and issues related to understanding architecture and urbanism in postpalatial Crete in its larger Mediterranean context, with reference particularly to Philistia but also to Cyprus and mainland Greece (Fig. 13.1). Comparisons with Philistia and Cyprus are relevant because many scholars have argued for a migration to these regions in the form of large scale colonization, and they have attempted to identify Aegean influences and even direct architectural transfers in these regions (as outlined in sections 13.2 and 13.4). This paper takes a more moderate or minimalist position: that any migration to these regions from the Aegean was limited and entangled, taking the form of what Knapp (2008: 266–8, 289, 292, 356; see also Hitchcock and Maeir 2013) has termed a ‘hybridization process’. However, a comparative approach among the Mediterranean regions has value regardless of where one positions oneself on the issue of migration, cross-cultural influence, and/or interconnections (see now Knapp and Manning 2016). The value lies in cross-cultural patterning that may be identified based on common postpalatial changes in social organization, structures, and practices; levels of technology; climate; and geography. It is the search for such patterning that typifies the approach to studying culture in cultural anthropology (e.g. Haviland et al. 2011). The benefit in identifying architectural patterns and differences across IIIC pottery-producing cultures can help to identify both common social practices and regional differences. Furthermore, we will argue that understanding architecture on multiple scales (urbanism, curation, design, and technique) in this era should emphasize IIIC commonalities, rather than past studies that have privileged and over-emphasized continuities with the palatial Bronze Age. While such continuities are interesting and worth drawing attention to, emphasizing them minimizes the significance of the breakdown and diminishing of official architectural styles. In addition, given that the data base for architecture is much smaller than for ceramic studies, a comparative approach can bring new insights gained by using different methods—as in Driessen’s study of complementarity in the different use of similar spaces by males and females as indicated by different types of artefact patterning in each space (see chapter 5).
Building by Stone and Bone: Handling Cremated Remains in Late Bronze Age Sweden
Authors: Röst Anna
Published: November 2020

The practice of cremation is very familiar, and yet alien to us today. For roughly half a century it has been the predominant method of disposal of the dead in the Scandinavian countries. An increasingly secular society has embraced its hygienic and space-saving properties and as a result cremation lawn cemeteries and memory groves are now found in both cities and countryside. The process of acceptance of cremation has, since the late nineteenth century (when cremation was first introduced in the modern era into Scandinavia), been made possible by several factors, one of them being architectural references to antiquity. The spatiality of memory groves, citing pre-Christian cultural landscapes, places the modern cremated dead in a setting perfectly logical, in connection with a consoling eternity (Williams 2011a, 2012). However, the predeposition act of cremation itself is now, unlike in prehistoric times, completely hidden from the view of the bereaved. It is not spoken of; it is handled by professionals, in stark contrast to its prehistoric open-air equivalent where sensory experiences of cremations must have been common experiences, witnessed, heard, smelled, by many people (Williams 2004a; Bille and Sørensen 2008; Back Danielsson 2009). This paradoxical fact—the familiarity, and the distance from cremation practices—certainly affects our archaeological understanding of the remains of prehistoric cremations. The images of peaceful churchyards, with individual resting places and monuments all influence our preconceptions of what a grave is, and projects them onto interpretations of past burials. Archaeologists have tackled this problem by analogical reasoning and ethnographical examples, to bring to the surface the experience of cremation which now has become hidden. Key themes in recent studies include the search for prehistoric eschatological and cosmological beliefs, including discussions of the transformative properties of the cremation act (Bille and Sørensen 2008; Goldhahn 2007; Kaliff 1997, 2005a, 2007; Kaliff and Oestigaard 2013; Oestigaard 1999, 2000). What happens after cremation—the deposition of the burnt bones in sites that are archeologically labelled prehistoric burial grounds—is somewhat less frequently discussed (see however Arcini et al. 2007; Arcini and Lönn 2009). The burial ground as an archaeological category still suffers from lack of discussion, and the image of a peaceful resting place for the ancestors still lingers.
Pyrexia of Unknown Origin (PUO)
Authors: Melzer Mark
Published: November 2020

Petersdorf and Beeson defined pyrexia of unknown origin (PUO) in 1961. It is defined as an illness more than three weeks’ duration, with a fever > 38.3°C on several occasions and failure to reach a diagnosis after one week of in-patient investigation. Additional categories have now been added. These include: ● Nosocomial PUO in hospital patients: This is defined as fever of 38.3°C on several occasions caused by a process not present or incubating on admission, where initial cultures are negative and diagnosis remains unknown after three days of investigations. Fever is often related to hospital factors such as surgery, use of biomedical devices (e.g. intravascular devices/urinary catheters), C. difficile infection, and decubitus ulcers related to immobilization. ● HIV- associated PUO: This is defined as fever (as in Nosocomial PUO) for four weeks as an outpatient or three days as an in- patient. The commonest causes of fever are typical and atypical mycobacterial infections, cryptococcosis, and Cytomegalovirus (CMV). Lymphoma may cause fever in up to 25% of cases. ● Neutropenic PUO: This includes patients with a fever (as in Nosocomial PUO) with neutrophils < 1.0 x 109/L, with initial negative cultures and an uncertain diagnosis after three days. Bacterial infection is the commonest cause and should be treated empirically. The causes of a PUO can be categorized as infection (30–40%), neoplasia (20–30%), collagen-vascular and autoimmune diseases (10–20%), and miscellaneous (10–20%). The commonest causes of localized bacterial infections causing PUO are infective endocarditis, intra- abdominal or pelvic infections, oral cavity infections, osteomyelitis, and infected peripheral vessels. These conditions include: ● Infective endocarditis (IE): ■ Organisms associated with indolent onset (e.g. Streptococcus viridans, Enterococcus species, coagulase- negative staphylococci). ■ HACEK organisms (e.g. Haemophilus, Aggregatibacter, Cardiobacterium, Eikenella, Kingella). ■ Culture-negative endocarditis (e.g. Chlamydia, Coxiella, or Bartonella). ■ Non- infective endocarditis: ● Marantic endocarditis, associated with malignancy. ● Libman Sacks endocarditis, associated with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). ● Intra-abdominal infections. ■ Abscesses: ● Hepatic (GI tract or biliary in origin). ● Splenic (associated with IE). ● Sub-phrenic (associated with previous surgery). ● Pancreatic (post-pancreatitis).
Vaccination of Specific Groups
Authors: Shin Gee Yen
Published: November 2020

While the UK immunisation schedule is a national immunisation policy for the general population, several groups of patients and persons require a different approach to be taken. For example, some groups of patients cannot safely receive certain vaccine because they may be allergic (anaphylaxis) to some vaccine components and some patients cannot receive, e.g. live attenuated vaccines because they are severely immunocompromised. Other patients require additional vaccines to protect them from vaccine preventable diseases because they are immunocompromised in some way, e.g. asplenia. The following groups require special consideration: ● Pregnant women; ● Severely immunocompromised patients; ● Asplenic patients or those with dysfunctional spleens; ● Severe allergy to vaccine components; ● healthcare workers (HCWs); ● Patients with certain chronic medical conditions; ● Morbid obesity; and ● Persons travelling abroad, especially to developing countries. In general, giving vaccines to pregnant women is not recommended due to the potential risk of medicines and vaccines harming the foetus. Specifically, live attenuated vaccines should not be given to pregnant women. It is relatively safer to give inactivated/killed vaccines to pregnant women, but most vaccines can and should be postponed until after delivery. However, in the UK it is recommended that pregnant women receive two particular vaccines during pregnancy in order to protect the mother and foetus from avoidable harm. These are the inactivated influenza vaccine and a vaccine against Bordetella pertussis infection. For these two vaccines, the benefits of vaccination for the pregnant women and the foetus or newborn baby outweigh any theoretical risks of harm. Severely immunocompromised patients should not receive live attenuated vaccines due to a risk of uncontrolled viral replication resulting in clinical disease. Patients who are considered to be severely immunocompromised include: ● Severe primary immunodeficiency, e.g. severe combined immunodeficiency; ● Patients receiving cancer chemotherapy and those within six months of completing chemotherapy; ● Patients who have received a solid organ transplant and are on immunosuppressive therapy; ● Patients who have received a bone marrow transplant until twelve months after all immunosuppressive therapy has stopped; and ● Patients receiving high-dose systemic corticosteroids until at least three months after treatment ends.
Therapeutic Options for HIV Infection
Authors: Dakshina Subathira , Khan Palwasha
Published: November 2020

Treatment of HIV infection has seen dramatic developments since the start of the epidemic over thirty-five years ago. Since the advent of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART), HIV infection has gone from being a terminal illness with the inevitable development of AIDS to a now-treatable chronic condition with infected individuals living a ‘normal’ and healthy lifestyle when tested early and engaged in care. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) has become simpler with minimal pill burden and fewer side effects. In the UK ART can only be prescribed by a HIV specialist ensuring the patient is engaged in care and under regular monitoring and follow up. HIV infection affects the immune system through depletion of CD4 T-lymphocytes. There are several goals and aims of treating HIV infection. The main function of ART is to prevent HIV viral replication, which in turn reduces viral load (VL) and depletion of CD4 cells thereby preventing the development of AIDS and eventual mortality. HIV infection induces a pro-inflammatory state, which is associated with several conditions especially in late presenters. Common conditions include cardiovascular disease including cardiomyopathy, increased risk of venous thromboembolism due to a hypercoagulable state, HIV-associated nephropathy, disorders of the central nervous system, bone disorders, various dermatological conditions, and acceleration of ageing. Timely initiation of ART can help reduce and reverse such conditions. Studies demonstrate early initiation of ART and maintaining a suppressed VL minimizes the risk of onward sexual transmission of HIV. Though barrier protection is always advised in serodiscordant couples, recent studies support the reduced risk of transmission in virologically suppressed serodiscordant sexual couples, which has led to changes in post-and pre-exposure prophylaxis guidelines and enabling serodiscordant couples to conceive naturally. All HIV positive women should be initiated on ART and virologically suppressed ideally prior to conception. It is now routine practice in the UK and many parts of the world to perform HIV testing during pregnancy. If tested positive during pregnancy ART should be initiated and, depending on the stage of pregnancy and the VL, a Caesarean section may be necessary and the neonate may require prophylactic ART.
ENT
Authors: Tostevin Philippa
Published: November 2020

Ear, nose, and throat (ENT) surgery is a fascinating specialty. It is involved in the diagnosis and management of a vast range of diseases presenting from birth through all ages. The pathologies covered range from congenital airway obstruction in the neonate to head and neck malignancies in the elderly. Systemic diseases can also manifest for the first time in the ENT area. The creation of a surgical airway in the form of a tracheostomy can be lifesaving, but some ENT surgery is performed to improve quality of life, so it is particularly important to understand the indications for surgical interventions. In contrast to other surgical specialties, many of the patients who are seen in the outpatient setting do not need surgery and medical management is required. For those interested in ENT surgery as a career, there are different areas within this diverse field that can be followed to a specialist level. These include rhinology, otology, and neuro-otology, in addition to the specialist areas of paediatric ENT, head and neck cancer surgery, voice, and facial plastic surgery. A thorough knowledge and understanding of the diagnosis and management of common ENT conditions is vital for those who wish to work in general practice, paediatrics, or emergency medicine. ENT conditions in children represent a very large proportion of the workload in any general practice setting. Various foreign bodies can be swallowed, inhaled, or inserted into the nose or ear, so an understanding of how and when these need to be removed is essential for any junior doctor working in the Emergency Department. In this chapter, the questions are based on the important knowledge that needs to be accrued as an undergraduate or a recently qualified doctor, as many readers may not have the opportunity to work as a junior doctor in an ENT team before treating ENT patients in the Emergency Department or in a general practice setting.
Dermatology
Authors: Simcox Gemma
Published: November 2020

Skin disease has a serious impact on an individual’s quality of life. It is well recognized that conditions such as psoriasis may have a similar impact on a patient’s quality of life to chronic diseases such as diabetes, hypertension, and depression. Skin problems account for approximately 20% of all patient consultations in primary care in the UK. It is important that clinicians are able to diagnose common skin diseases such as acne, eczema, psoriasis, and cutaneous malignancies and initiate an appropriate management plan. This requires the ability to take a full history and conduct a complete examination. A complete dermatological examination involves examination of the entire skin, mucous membranes, hair, and nails. The description of cutaneous pathologies should include the location and distribution of lesions. The morphology of a lesion or each component of a generalized eruption should be noted. Other organ systems may also need to be examined. The questions in this chapter will test your knowledge of the skin problems that are frequently encountered in non-specialist clinical practice. Other more rare skin disorders are also covered, either because they are potentially life-threatening or because they are a sign of systemic disease. The questions are designed to improve your ability to recognize the morphology and distribution of cutaneous physical signs. Hopefully you will find these questions stimulating and an aid to improving your knowledge of skin disease.
Extending the OLG model
Authors: Fehr Hans , Kindermann Fabian
Published: November 2020

In Chapter 6 we used our basic OLG model to discuss the welfare and efficiency effects of various policy reforms. Of course, we have to be cautious in drawing robust conclusions fromsuch a policy analysis. In the basic model households only decide on their intertemporal consumption allocation. Hence, public policy solely distorts the savings decision and, consequently, most of the policy reforms hardly impact on economic efficiency but only redistribute across cohorts. Our analysis could be much more instructive when decisions of economic agents are multidimensional, so that various distortions induced by public policy interact. In this chapter we therefore introduce an extended individual decision process. Households not only decide on their savings, but also on their time use. Given a specific time endowment (say a day or a year), agents can either work in the market (and earn income), go to school (and acquire human capital for future income generation), or consume leisure. Public policy may distort all of these decisions. A good policy thus has to create a balance between intertemporal and intratemporal distortions. Finally, we study the implications of lifespan uncertainty and missing annuity markets, asking how public policy can improve the allocation of resources by providing insurance against longevity risk. In this section we allow households to decide how many hours to work in each period. The remaining time is used for leisure consumption which now features in household utility. Leisure demand in each period of the life cycle strongly depends on the respective value of human capital hj, which measures the value of the time endowment in terms of labour market productivity. Hence agents may work the same number of hours, but they may be differently productive, so that they earn a different wage per time unit. Whenever the wage a household earns in the labour market is very small, the household might want to consume more leisure than the actual time endowment. In order to guarantee that the time endowment is met, we calculate a so-called shadow wage μj,s. The shadow wage is added to the regular wage of the household and calculated such that the household’s optimal decision consists in consuming the household’s total endowment of time as leisure.
Practice Test
Authors: Metcalfe David , Dev Harveer
Published: November 2020

This chapter presents two practice tests with a mix of question types (e.g. multiple choice or ranking), content (e.g. domain- tested), and styles (e.g. patient, colleague, or personal). Each includes 30 questions and broadly reflects the type of questions likely to be asked in the SJT. To make the most of this test, you should complete it in one sitting within an hour before checking your answers. When checking your answers to ranking questions, remember that credit is still given for ‘near misses’ and so there is no need to hit the ‘correct’ sequence every time. The practice test answers are not accompanied by detailed explanations. For this reason, it would be preferable to complete all the questions in Section 2 before attempting the test. To replicate the SJT as closely as possible, you should ideally complete these questions within an hour under formal examination conditions. Once you have attempted all the questions, turn to to check your answers. It is difficult to interpret your final score, as your rank will depend entirely on how well your colleagues (and every other medical student in the country) fare. If you are organized, you could arrange a study group to work through this book and/ or complete the practice test. Marking your answers as a group will give some indication as to your performance relative to others. It will also provide an opportunity to discuss the various options (including disagreement with our answers) and so gain a deeper understanding of the issues tested by the SJT.
How Education Drives Demography and Knowledge Informs Projections
Authors: Lutz Wolfgang , Skirbekk Vegard
Published: November 2020

This chapter provides the background necessary for understanding our approach to projecting population and human capital. First, we investigate the proper place of education in demographic analysis and the evidence for an underlying causal relationship between education and demographic outcomes. Second, we emphasize the importance of explicit assumptions undergirding population projections and detail our procedures for incorporating the views of hundreds of experts into sets of assumptions that drive the Wittgenstein Centre (WIC) projections. Subsequent chapters build on this background in their detailed discussions of trends and arguments in fertility, mortality, migration, and education. A major innovative feature of this volume is the systematic addition of educational attainment as a standard demographic dimension in addition to age and sex for demographic analyses, particularly for projections. The underlying assumption is that educational attainment is not just one of many socio-economic factors that matter for population, as it is often viewed in conventional demographic analysis, but is the single most important source of empirically observable population heterogeneity next to age and sex. The suggestion of routinely adding educational attainment as a dimension of demographic analysis is not new. It was first proposed in a Population and Development Review article by Lutz et al. (1998), entitled ‘Adding Education to Age and Sex’. More recently, the idea of adding the education factor to demographic analysis was discussed by Lutz (2010) in a commentary entitled, ‘Education Will be at the Heart of 21st Century Demography’. It has also been the focus of two recent articles by Lutz and KC, one published in Philosophical Transactions entitled, ‘Dimensions of Global Population Projections’ (2010), and a review article published in Science entitled, ‘Global Human Capital: Integrating Education and Population’ (2011). In the latter paper they argue that an additional demographic dimension should be added routinely to age and sex in population analyses and projections according to three criteria: (i) its explicit consideration should be feasible in terms of available data and methodology; (ii) it should matter substantially in terms of altering population dynamics; and (iii) it should be of interest in its own right in terms of its social and economic implications.
Data and Methods
Authors: Samir KC , PotanČoková Michaela
Published: November 2020

The preceding chapters have all contributed to building the knowledge base for the actual Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WIC) projections that will be presented and discussed in the second part of this book. This chapter stands as a bridge between the two parts. Its focus is the translation and operationalization of the empirical evidence and the substantive arguments presented so far into specific population projections by age, sex, and level of educational attainment for all countries in the world. This is a complex exercise in which data and methodology play the crucial roles. The cohort–component multidimensional projections presented in this volume require a large amount of information, ranging from base-year data on population disaggregated by levels of educational attainment by age and sex, to data on fertility, mortality, and migration by age, sex, and education for the base year, and, finally, to the assumed numerical values of these determinants according to the different scenarios. This new set of expert argument-based projections by age, sex, and educational attainment presents an important new step at the forefront of international population projections. As discussed in Chapter 1, this is a logical next step in the tradition of international population projections by the World Population Program of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). This effort also goes beyond what the United Nations (UN) and other agencies have been doing in two important ways: it provides the most comprehensive and systematic summary of expert knowledge on future fertility, mortality, and migration to date—including the input of hundreds of demographers from around the world—and it translates this into the most comprehensive set of human capital projections for 195 countries. The WIC projections cover all countries in the world with more than 100,000 inhabitants. In this effort, the study builds on and significantly expands earlier IIASA reconstructions and projections of the population by age, sex, and educational attainment for 120 countries published in 2007 and 2010 (KC et al., 2010; Lutz et al., 2007).
How is Schizophrenia Diagnosed?
Authors: Glatt Stephen J. , Faraone Stephen V. , Tsuang Ming T.
Published: November 2020

The diagnosis of schizophrenia cannot be made based on the results of an ob­jective diagnostic test or laboratory measure, though we and others are working towards this. Instead, clinicians diagnose schizophrenia based on behaviour and psychopathology (including the symptoms described in the previous chapter). These require the subjective interpretation of clinicians, but they can be as­sessed reliably. The definitions of major mental illnesses used by clinicians are presented in the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual (DSM) of the American Psychiatric Association (in the United States) and the World Health Organization’s International Classification of Diseases (ICD) in other countries. These def­initions are updated from time to time to reflect gains in knowledge, or to reflect modern thinking on the similarities and differences between certain disorders. From one edition to the next, some diagnoses are revised, some are added, and some vanish altogether, only to be replaced or absorbed under other diagnoses. The diagnostic criteria for schizophrenia as defined by the most recent version of the DSM (DSM- 5) include the presence of two or more of the following symptoms: delusions, hallucinations, disorganized speech, disorganized or cata­tonic behaviour, and negative symptoms. At least one of the two must be delu­sions, hallucinations, or disorganized speech, while the second symptom type required for diagnosis could be any of the remaining four criteria. The require­ment of delusions, hallucinations, or disorganized speech maintains the resem­blance of the modern- day diagnosis to that first described by the clinician Emil Kraepelin over a century ago. Kraepelin’s discovery that schizophrenia is marked by a chronic and gradually worsening course is seen in modern- day criteria as well. A DSM-5 diagnosis of schizophrenia requires continuous signs of illness for at least 6 months, during which the individual must show at least 1 month of active symptoms (less if well treated). The diagnosis also requires social or work deterioration over a signifi­cant amount of time. Lastly, the diagnosis requires that the observed symptoms are not due to some other medical condition, including other psychiatric disorders such as bipolar disorder or major depressive disorder.
The Tropical ‘Anthropocene’ A Modern Battleground or a Long-Term Framework?
Authors: Roberts Patrick
Published: November 2020

Although referencing temperate, rather than tropical, rainforest destruction in the United States of America the above passage highlights the shift in landscape valuation driven by modern demographic and economic pressures. Firstly, as a greater proportion of the world’s population shifts to the tropics over the course of the twenty-first century, more and more local smallholders will rely on tropical forests as a source of freshwater, agricultural land, and urban land, as well as timber, medicine, and food (Ghazoul and Sheil, 2010; The State of the Tropics Project, 2016). Furthermore, rather than solely being contexts for local subsistence and use, tropical forests are now also national and international ‘mines’ that provision high value wood, minerals, fuels, and land for multi-national businesses and markets. Notions that tropical forests should be removed, rather than managed or maintained, in order to increase local productivity and land value, have led to them becoming the most threatened terrestrial environments on the face of the Earth after the polar ice-caps. Certainly, the increasingly dramatic impacts these pressures are having upon them form part of broader discussions of a new, human-driven era of earth systems domination known as the ‘Anthropocene’ (Malhi et al., 2014). Disproportionate biodiversity, the regulatory role these habitats play in local and regional soil structure and chemistry, and their position within local, regional, and even global climate systems mean that human alterations to tropical forests, that have been argued to have changed in nature and scale since the European industrial revolution of the eighteenth century and the ‘Great Acceleration’ of the 1960s, have massive implications for the planet as a whole (Malhi et al., 2014; Malhi, 2017). As a result, tropical forests are a focal political, economic, and cultural battlefield between local populations reliant upon living within them, and business and governmental interests seeking to extract from them. This chapter explores the tensions that exist in the human occupation and use of global tropical forest regions today, including the advance of urbanism and industrialization, exploitation of mineral, floral, and faunal resources by local groups and multi-national corporations, and their key position in discussions of anthropogenically induced climate change.
Periodontics
Authors: Longridge Nicholas , Clarke Pete , Aftab Raheel , Ali Tariq
Published: November 2020

Periodontitis is estimated to be the sixth most prevalent disease in the world, and clinicians are likely to encounter this disease and other gin­gival conditions on a regular basis. It is therefore important to have a sound understanding of both the pathophysiology and management of periodontitis and related conditions. Periodontal disease may also be seen as a manifestation of systemic disease, so it may provide a window into the patient’s general health. Common conditions, such as diabetes mellitus, have a well- established relationship with the progression of periodontal disease, but rare gen­etic conditions, such as Ehlers– Danlos syndrome, may produce unusual findings. Therefore, the clinician should have a good breadth of know­ledge and be able to examine the patient as a whole, relating oral signs to systemic symptoms in order to diagnose and manage appropriately. The general dental practitioner’s role will focus mainly on diagnosis and non- surgical management of these patients, but awareness of the more advanced treatment will ensure appropriate referral and allow an informed discussion with the patient. A key challenge in the successful management of these patients is often getting them to obtain a suitable level of plaque control to stabilize the disease and maintain health. Ability to communicate this effectively and encourage excellent oral care is an invaluable asset. The questions in this chapter will test the readers’ knowledge of the fundamentals of periodontal diagnosis and practical skills. Moreover, questions are also presented examining the relationship with systemic disease and advanced treatment concepts. It is hoped that the questions in this chapter will test the readers’ baseline knowledge and promote further reading around complex or contentious subjects. Key topics include: ● Diagnosis/ disease classification ● Aetiology ● Systemic conditions ● Non- surgical management/ cause- related therapy ● Adjunctive therapies ● Surgical management/ corrective therapy ● Supportive therapy.
Artificial intelligence, explanations, trust, responsibility, and justice
Authors: Baecker Ronald M.
Published: November 2020

There have been several challenges to our view of our position and purpose as human beings. The scientist Charles Darwin’s research demonstrated evolutionary links between man and other animals. Psychoanalysis founder Sigmund Freud illuminated the power of the subconscious. Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have challenged our identity as the species with the greatest ability to think. Whether machines can now ‘think’ is no longer interesting. What is important is to critically consider the degree to which they are called upon to make decisions and act in significant and often life-critical situations. We have already discussed the increasing roles of AI in intelligent tutoring, medicine, news stories and fake news, autonomous weapons, smart cars, and automation. Chapter 11 focuses on other ways in which our lives are changing because of advances in AI, and the accompanying opportunities and risks. AI has seen a paradigm shift since the year 2000. Prior to this, the focus was on knowledge representation and the modelling of human expertise in particular domains, in order to develop expert systems that could solve problems and carry out rudimentary tasks. Now, the focus is on the neural networks capable of machine learning (ML). The most successful approach is deep learning, whereby complex hierarchical assemblies of processing elements ‘learn’ using millions of samples of training data. They can then often make correct decisions in new situations. We shall also present a radical, and for most of us a scary, concept of AI with no limits—the technological singularity or superintelligence. Even though superintelligence is for now sciencefiction, humanity is asking if there is any limit to machine intelligence. We shall therefore discuss the social and ethical consequences of widespread use of ML algorithms. It is helpful in this analysis to better understand what intelligence is, so we present two insightful formulations of the concept developed by renowned psychologists.
Introduction
Authors: van den Dool Huug
Published: November 2020

This is first and foremost a book about short-term climate prediction. The predictions we have in mind are for weather/climate elements, mainly temperature (T) and precipitation (P), at lead times longer than two weeks, beyond the realm of detailed Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP), i.e. predictions for the next month and the next seasons out to at most a few years. call this short-term climate so as to distinguish it from long-term climate change which is not the main subject of this book. A few decades ago “short-term climate prediction” was known as “longrange weather prediction”. In order to understand short-term climate predictions, their skill and what they reveal about the atmosphere, ocean and land, several chapters are devoted to constructing prediction methods. The approach taken is mainly empirical, which means literally that it is based in experience. We will use global data sets to represent the climate and weather humanity experienced (and measured!) in the past several decades. The idea is to use these existing data sets in order to construct prediction methods. In doing so we want to acknowledge that every measurement (with error bars) is a monument about the workings of Nature. We thought about using the word “statistical” instead of “empirical” in the title of the book. These two notions overlap, obviously, but we prefer the word “empirical” because we are driven more by intuition than by a desire to apply existing or developing new statistical theory. While constructing prediction methods we want to discover to the greatest extent possible how the physical system works from observations. While not mentioned in the title, diagnostics of the physical system will thus be an important part of the book as well. We use a variety of classical tools to diagnose the geophysical system. Some of these tools have been developed further and/or old tools are applied in novel ways. We do not intend to cover all diagnostics methods, only those that relate closely to prediction. There will be an emphasis on methods used in operational prediction. It is quite difficult to gain a comprehensive idea from existing literature about methods used in operational short-term climate prediction.
Degrees of Freedom
Authors: van den Dool Huug
Published: November 2020

How many degrees of freedom are evident in a physical process represented by f(s, t)? In some form questions about “degrees of freedom” (d.o.f.) are common in mathematics, physics, statistics, and geophysics. This would mean, for instance, in how many independent directions a weight suspended from the ceiling could move. Dofs are important for three reasons that will become apparent in the remaining chapters. First, dofs are critically important in understanding why natural analogues can (or cannot) be applied as a forecast method in a particular problem (Chapter 7). Secondly, understanding dofs leads to ideas about truncating data sets efficiently, which is very important for just about any empirical prediction method (Chapters 7 and 8). Lastly, the number of dofs retained is one aspect that has a bearing on how nonlinear prediction methods can be (Chapter 10). In view of Chapter 5 one might think that the total number of orthogonal directions required to reproduce a data set is the dof. However, this is impractical as the dimension would increase (to infinity) with ever denser and slightly imperfect observations. Rather we need a measure that takes into account the amount of variance represented by each orthogonal direction, because some directions are more important than others. This allows truncation in EOF space without lowering the “effective” dof very much. We here think schematically of the total atmospheric or oceanic variance about the mean state as being made up by N equal additive variance processes. N can be thought of as the dimension of a phase space in which the atmospheric state at one moment in time is a point. This point moves around over time in the N-dimensional phase space. The climatology is the origin of the phase space. The trajectory of a sequence of atmospheric states is thus a complicated Lissajous figure in N dimensions, where, importantly, the range of the excursions in each of the N dimensions is the same in the long run. The phase space is a hypersphere with an equal probability radius in all N directions.
Analogues
Authors: van den Dool Huug
Published: November 2020

In 1999 the Earth’s atmosphere was gearing up for a special event. Towards the end of July, the 500 mb flow in the extra-tropical SH started to look more and more like a flow pattern observed some 22 years earlier in May 1977. Two trajectories in the N-dimensional phase space, N as defined in Chapter 6, were coming closer together. Figure 7.1 shows the two states at the moment of closest encounter, with the appropriate climatology subtracted. These two states are, for a domain of this size, the most similar looking patterns in recorded history. But are these good analogues? They do look alike, nearly every anomaly center has its counterpart, but they are certainly not close enough to be indistinguishable within observational error, the anomaly correlation being only 0.81. The rms difference between the two states in Figure 7.1 is 71.6 gpm, far above observational error (<10 gpm). The close encounter did not make it to the newspapers and, more telling, not even to a meteorological journal. The idea of situations in geophysical flow that are analogues to each other has always had tremendous appeal, at least in meteorology. Even lay people may comment that the weather today or this season reminds them of the weather in some year past. The implications of true analogues would be enormous. If two states many years apart were nearly identical in all variables on the whole domain (of presumed relevance) , including boundary conditions, then their subsequent behavior should be similar for some time to come. In fact one could make forecasts that way, if only it was easy to find analogues from a “large enough” data set. The analogue method was fairly widely used for weather forecasting at one time (Schuurmans 1973) but currently is rarely used for forecasts per sé (for all the reasons explained in Section 7.1). Rather analogues are used to specify one field given another, a process called “specification” or downscaling, or to learn about predictability (Lorenz 1969). In Section 7.1 we review the idea and limitations of naturally occurring analogues, and explain why/when it is (un)likely to find analogues.
Revenants in the Landscape: The Discoveries of Aerial Photography
Authors: Hauser Kitty
Published: November 2020

In 1937 John Piper’s article ‘Prehistory from the Air’ was published in the final volume of the modernist art journal Axis. In it, Piper compares the landscapes of southern England, seen from above, with the modernist works of Miró and Picasso (Fig. 4.1). His interest in the aerial view is not, however, confined to its Formalist-aesthetic aspect; Piper also points out how flying and aerial photography have accelerated archaeological theory and practice. Aerial photographs, he writes, ‘have elucidated known sites of earthworks and have shown the sites of many that were previously unknown’. They are also, he continues, ‘among the most beautiful photographs ever taken’. The aerial view, it seems, could be both investigative and aesthetic. The use of aerial photography by archaeologists, known as ‘aerial archaeology’, began in earnest in Britain in the decade in which Piper was writing, although its possibilities were beginning to be suspected in the 1920s, after the use of aerial photography for reconnaissance purposes in the First World War. In the interwar period it was British archaeologists who pioneered the new methods of aerial archaeology. In his book on aerial archaeology, Leo Deuel notes that until the 1950s ‘no other European country had made any comparable effort to tap the almost limitless store of information consecutive cultures had imprinted on its soil’. As many commentators pointed out, the British landscape offered plenty of such ‘information’: the series of invasions, settlements, clearances, and developments that constitute British history have made the landscape a veritable palimpsest, the layers of which can potentially be revealed in an aerial view. Archaeologists became expert in deciphering aerial views of this palimpsest, as we shall see. But such views of Britain exercised an appeal beyond archaeological circles. Aerial photography showed Britain as it had never before been seen; it revealed aspects of the landscape hitherto unknown, or at least never before visualized in such concrete form. The aerial view ‘made strange’ long-familiar features: hills seemed to disappear, towns and cities might appear tiny, rivers and roads ran through the two-dimensional scene like veins.
The molecular basis for phenotypic changes during pig domestication
Authors: Andersson Leif
Published: November 2020

Pig domestication was initiated some 10,000 years ago. Thus, within a fairly short period of time, from an evolutionary perspective, a remarkable change in phenotype has taken place. Until recently (the last few hundred years), the selection intensity was weak but selection on traits such as behaviour and disease resistance must have occurred early. Docile animals resistant to stress were likely to be kept by the early farmers. Less obviously, coat colour is a trait that also was altered early during domestication. New coat colour variants occur by spontaneous mutations, but in nature there is a strong purifying selection eliminating such mutations because they provide less efficient camouflage or fail to attract mates. In contrast, such mutations have accumulated in domestic animals—why? One reason is of course relaxed purifying selection, but this is not the only reason. A less efficient camouflage of the domestic stock could be advantageous for the farmer and maybe it was used to distinguish improved domestic forms from their wild counterparts. Today, coat colour is often used as a breed-specific marker. For instance, a Large White pig should be white and a Piétrain pig should be spotted. Furthermore, there is strong selection for white colour in some breeds because of consumer demand for pork meat without any pigmented spots in the remaining skin. Charles Darwin was the first to realize that the phenotypic change in domestic animals resulting from selective breeding is an excellent model for phenotypic evolution due to natural selection (Darwin 1859). In fact, he became a pigeon breeder himself and used domestic animals as a proof-of-principle for his revolutionary theory on natural selection as a driving force for evolution. The first chapter of The Origin of Species (Darwin 1859) concerns observations on domestic animals, and nine years later he published two volumes on The Variation of Animals and Plants under Domestication (Darwin 1868). In the latter book he describes the phenotypic changes that have occurred in the pig and other domestic animals as a consequence of domestication. As a result of the development of molecular tools in the form of well-developed genetic maps and large number of genetic markers we are now in position to start unravelling the molecular basis for phenotypic changes in the pig and other domestic animals.
Traditional pig butchery by the Yali people of West Papua (Irian Jaya) : an ethnographic and archaeozoological example
Authors: Studer Jacqueline , Pillonel Daniel
Published: November 2020

Studies of traditional methods of animal slaughter, food preparation, and consumption offer archaeozoologists an excellent opportunity to study the link between human behaviour and the resulting bone assemblage. Numerous actualistic studies of butchery have been carried out by archaeologists using stone tools, often especially manufactured by the researchers (e.g. Schick & Toth 1993; Laroulandie 2000). In other instances, traditional butchery practices have been documented, but in most cases the artefacts used were metal. Examples come from the Nunamiut of Alaska (Binford 1981), the Bedouin herders of Israel (Klenck 1995), the Peul cattle herders of Mali (Chenal- Velardé 1996), the !Kung hunter-gatherers of Botswana (Yellen 1977), and semi-urban, urban and village communities from Algeria, France, and Sudan respectively (Chaix & Sidi Maamar 1992). Similarly, for a range of different communities, traditional food preparation and consumption practices have been documented and in many instances the resulting food residues examined (e.g. Brain 1969; Yellen 1977; Binford 1981; Gifford-Gonzalez 1989; Oliver J. 1993). In 1989, the opportunity was taken to document traditional butchery, cooking and consumption of a domestic pig by the Yali people of West Papua (or Irian Jaya). Since this community continues to use traditional artefacts made of stone and organic materials, it may offer a good analogue for the study of prehistoric butchery practices. According to the most recent suvrey available, the Yali population comprises c.30,000 people (Silzer & Clouse 1991) who inhabit the eastern part of the well-known Baliem valley of west Papua. They primarily inhabit the Jayawijaya mountains of the central highlands at an altitude of between 1000 and 2000 m (Koch 1968: 85) although some Yali villages can be found at lower altitudes, down to 200 m, in the southern part of the distribution of the group (Boissière 1999: 55). Like many populations living in the mountainous regions of the island, the Yali are subsistence farmers who cultivate sweet potatoes, yam, taro, plantains, manioc, and sugarcane, and raise pigs, the latter serving a central function in their religious and social life (Koch 1968; Zöllner 1977; Boissière 1999). The men hunt small mammals and birds in the surrounding rainforests, while children and women complete their protein requirements by gathering invertebrates, fruits, mushrooms, and other plants.