Planning for the aftershocks: a model of post-acute care needs for hospitalized COVID-19 patients
Authors: Maloney Matthew , Morley Ryan , Checketts Robert , Weir Peter , Barfuss Darryl , Meredith Hannah R. , Hofmann Michelle G. , Samore Matthew H. , Keegan Lindsay T. 
Published: June 2020

Since its emergence in late 2019, COVID-19 has caused significant global morbidity and mortality, overwhelming health systems. Considerable attention has been paid to the burden COVID-19 has put on acute care hospitals, with numerous models projecting hospitalizations and ICU needs for the duration of the pandemic. However, less attention has been paid to where these patients may go if they require additional care following hospital discharge. As COVID-19 patients recover from severe infections, many of them require additional care. Yet with post-acute care facilities averaging 85% capacity prior to the pandemic and the significant potential for outbreaks, consideration of the downstream effects of the surge of hospitalized COVID-19 patients is critical. Here, we present a method for projecting COVID-19 post-acute care needs. Our model is designed to take the output from any of the numerous epidemiological models (hospital discharges) and estimate the flow of patients to post-acute care services, thus providing a similar surge planning model for post-acute care services. Using data from the University of Utah Hospital, we find that for those who require specialized post-acute care, the majority require either home health care or skilled nursing facilities. Likewise, we find the expected peak in post-acute care occurs about two weeks after the expected peak for acute care hospitalizations, a result of the duration of hospitalization. This short delay between acute care and post-acute care surges highlights the importance of considering the organization necessary to accommodate the influx of recovering COVID-19 patients and protect non-COVID-19 patients prior to the peak in acute care hospitalizations. We developed this model to guide policymakers in addressing the “aftershocks” of discharged patients requiring further supportive care; while we only show the outcomes for discharges based on preliminary data from the University of Utah Hospital, we suggest alternative uses for our model including adapting it to explore potential alternative strategies for addressing the surge in acute care facilities during future pandemic waves.

Author Summary

COVID-19 has caused significant morbidity and mortality globally, putting considerable strain on healthcare systems as a result of high rates of hospitalization and critical care needs among COVID-19 patients. To address this immediate need, a number of decision support tools have been developed to project hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations, and ventilator needs for the COVID-19 pandemic. As COVID-19 patients are discharged from acute care hospitals, many of them will require significant additional post-acute care. However, with post-acute care facilities at high capacity prior to the influx of COVID-19 patients and with significant outbreak potential in long-term care facilities, there is high potential for shortages of post-acute care services. Here, we present a model of COVID-19 post-acute care needs that is analogous to most epidemiological models of COVID-19 hospitalization and ICU care needs. We develop our model on University of Utah Hospital data and demonstrate its utility and its flexibility to be used in other contexts. Our model aims to guide public health policymaking in addressing the “aftershocks” of discharged patients requiring further care, to prevent potential healthcare shortages.