bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Biogenic Phosphate Pollution Inducing Eutrophication as a Catalyst for the Decline of Obolid-Dominated Brachiopod Communities in the Early Tremadocian of East Baltica
Authors: Holmer Lars , Popov Leonid , Ghobadipour Mansoureh , Alvaro Blasco Javier
Published: March 2024

During the early Tremadocian (Cordylodus lindstromi and Cordylodus angulatus zones), the Baltoscandian epicratonic basin displayed environmental heterogeneity. The basin included a black shale depocentre, bordered in North Estonia by coastal plains and shoal complexes featuring extensive brachiopod shell accumulations. At this juncture, obolid-dominant brachiopod communities near the shore had become extinct. Allochthonous shell beds, manifested as biogenic phosphorites, were remnants eroded from Furongian shoal bioaccumulations.Unconsolidated quartzose sand packages, displaying bidirectional cross laminae and intermittently punctuated by thin black shale intercalations and contemporaneous glendonite clusters (a pseudomorph of ikaite), were deposited in tidally influenced foreshore-to-shoreface settings. The nearshore reworking and condensation of sand phosphorites served as indicators of coastal eutrophication. This eutrophication likely led to a significant seasonal enrichment of the water column with nutrients, linked to fluctuations in dissolved oxygen. An overlooked potential contributor to this eutrophication and water pollution, coinciding with the widespread deposition of kerogenous clay and the extinction of shallow marine biota, was the rise in phosphate nutrients and an increased biomass of phytoplankton.Toxic effects were likely triggered by the extensive Furongian obolid shelly substrates, submerged during the marine transgression. The presence of substantial amounts of dissolved phosphate in the water during this period was evidenced by the deposition of concretions and crusts of chemogenic phosphorites outlining the periphery of the black shale depocentre.
Two-fold stratification of aeolian transport and its implication for planetary bedforms
Authors: Tholen Katharina , Yizhaq Hezi , Saban Lior , Swet Nitzan , Lester Conner , Silvestro Simone , Rasmussen Keld R. , Merrison Jonathan P. , Iversen Jens J. , Franzese Gabriele , Kamath Sandesh , Parteli Eric J. R. , Durán Orencio , Katra Itzhak , Kroy Klaus , Pähtz Thomas
Published: March 2024

Although aeolian sand transport is a major process shaping landscapes on Earth and on diverse celestial bodies, understanding its underlying many-body dynamics is still a central problem in aeolian research. Here, by means of grain-scale simulations and analytical modeling, we elucidate how aeolian conditions favoring bimodal sand transport, with grain bouncing (saltation) driving creeping motion (reptation), results in an recently discovered anomalous scaling of the bulk transport rate. The necessary two-fold stratification of the underlying minimal two-species model in turn raises a number of questions regarding the evolution of multiscale bedforms on Earth, Mars, and other planetary bodies. In fact, according to conventional wisdom, decameter-scale dunes and decimeter-scale ripples emerge via distinct mechanisms on Earth: a hydrodynamic instability and a granular instability. However, recent ambient-air and low-pressure wind-tunnel experiments report the reproducible creation of coevolving centimeter and decimeter-scale ripples on fine-grained monodisperse sand beds, revealing two adjacent mesoscale growth instabilities. Their morphological traits and our grain-scale simulations authenticate the smaller structures as impact ripples but point at a hydrodynamic origin for the larger ones.  This suggests that the aeolian transport layer would have to partially respond to the topography on a scale much smaller than previously thought, but consistent with its inherent two-fold stratification. A corresponding hydrodynamic modelling supports the existence of aerodynamic ripples on Earth and connects them to the so-called large Martian ripples. We thereby open a unified perspective for mesoscale granular bedforms found across the Solar System.
Development of a site-screening method for hydrogen storage purposes and its application to an industrial dataset of Italian reservoirs
Authors: Ridolfi Riccardo Maria , Azzaro Salvatore , Beaubien Stan E. , Da Pra Andrea , Pontiggia Marco , Bigi Sabina
Published: March 2024

The use of hydrogen as an energy carrier will require effective storage solutions, and depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs offer a safer and cheaper large-scale option compared to other possibilities. The selection of a site for underground hydrogen storage (UHS) entails considerable responsibilities and expenses, and specific tools should be employed to facilitate and optimize the decision process. Thus, a site-screening method was developed to rank depleted and almost depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs for UHS, with subsequent testing on a confidential dataset of 48 production sites from Italy provided by Eni. A set of 27 screening parameters was selected from a wider dataset and a weight for each one was defined by reproducing the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in Microsoft Excel and gathering expert judgements from both academic and industry following the Delphi technique. This was performed from the points of view of HSE (health, safety, and environment), geotechnical performance (GP) and economic performance (EP), dividing the individual parameters among these three supergroups and normalizing the diverse kinds of dataset records to be used in the calculation procedure. The method resulted in three preliminary rankings based on the sites’ HSE, GP and EP scores and a comprehensive ranking obtained through the aggregation of these three scores for each site, with penalties applied if specific, adverse features exist for UHS purposes. For sites with incomplete data, an estimation of the potential score was derived based on average values calculated from the dataset and attached as additional information to the screening scores without affecting the ranking. The AHP results highlighted a major role for Faulting Description, Mineralization Type, Onshore/Offshore, Wells Number, Reservoir Architecture, Datum Depth and Initial Pressure at Datum, even though other factors made significant contributions. The result consists of a set of scores ranging from 29 to 72 out of 100. To assess the reliability of the method, two blind tests were conducted on a minor proprietary dataset containing well-known sites from North Africa, the first involving a subset of the sites and the second using all sites. The results yielded a good match with the existing ranking performed by Eni. The developed method can be adjusted for a variety of decision-making scenarios, to accommodate changes in the screening purposes or advancements in research. In this configuration, it consists of a highly effective tool for an objective and transparent screening of sites for UHS purposes.
Soil chemistry and hydrophobicity caused by four 2021-22 western U.S. megafires.
Authors: Samburova Vera , Schneider Eric , Rüger Christopher , Sion Brad , Friederici Lukas , Raeofy Yasaman , Berli Markus , Bahdanovich Palina , Moosmüller Hans , Zimmermann Ralf
Published: March 2024

In the past decade, the size, frequency, and severity of wildfires have increased around the world, especially in forests of the western United States, where ecosystems are dominated by dry conifer forests. It is known that fires can greatly affect not only air quality, climate, forest, and fauna, but also soil. The heat from fires can alter soil chemistry and change soil water repellency (SWR). SWR can reduce soil infiltration, which can increase surface runoff, erosion, and the potential for flooding and mud and debris slides. The increased frequency and intensity of western U.S. wildfires due to the rapidly changing climate poses an important question: What are the short- and long-term effects of wildfires on soil’s hydrologic responses, including SWR, and what is the role of fire-induced chemistry in SWR?In the summer and fall of 2021 and 2022, there were four mega-wildfires (Caldor, Dixie, Beckwourth Complex, and Mosquito) in the Eastern Sierra Nevada mountains (California, USA). These wildfires provided us an opportunity to collect post-fire soil and ash samples and study the effects of fires on the physical and chemical properties of soils. We collected over 80 samples and performed multiple water-droplet penetration time (WDPT) tests in the field and, in the laboratory, apparent contact angle (ACA) measurements with the goniometer technique. For all four fires, a significant increase in SWR was observed between unburned and burned soils, with WDPT increasing from
Architecture Characterization of Shoreface Reservoir: A Case Study from the Donghe Sandstone Reservoir in the Hudson Oilfield
Authors: Zuo Wenhui , Ren Lihua
Published: March 2024

  The sandy shoreface reservoir exhibits a uniform lithology overall, with generally low overall heterogeneity. However, in the actual dynamics of reservoir development, the internal characteristics still reveal a complex oil-water relationship, indicating that the internal structure of the marine shoreface sand reservoir is intricate, and heterogeneity is pronounced. Therefore, it is imperative to conduct a quantitative characterization of the reservoir structure to provide theoretical and technical support for the interpretation of oil-water distribution and to further facilitate potential exploration.  To solve the above problems, this paper, guided by the sedimentary genetic model, systematically quantified and characterized the architectural interfaces and architectural units in hierarchical order. On this basis, the influence of configuration interfaces and configurational units on the distribution of remaining oil was investigated, forming a set of multi-level architecture methods for quantitatively characterizing the internal structure of shoreface reservoirs. The specific steps are as follows: (1) After establishing that the third-order and fourth-order architectural elements primarily influence the oil-water distribution interface within the closely spaced well pattern area, the third-order and fourth-order architectural interfaces of the reservoir are quantitatively identified. This identification is based on the sedimentary genetic model and is integrated with data from both vertical and horizontal wells. A quantitative relationship is then established between the maximum thickness and maximum extension length of the third-order and fourth-order architectural interfaces in both parallel and vertical paleo-shoreline directions. The distribution characteristics of these interfaces, along with the progradation and regression evolution traits of the third-order architectural interfaces along the vertical paleo-shoreline, are precisely defined. (2) Building upon the identification of architectural interfaces, the focus is placed on the classification, recognition, and distribution studies of third-order and fourth-order architectural units. The distribution characteristics of different-order architectures are delineated in detail, and a developmental model for third-order architectural units is established. Finally, the reservoir architecture characterization results are validated using production dynamic data, confirming that the method accurately characterizes the internal structure of sandy shoreface facies reservoirs and quantitatively depicts their internal heterogeneity. The quantitative characterization of the marine shoreface sand reservoir architecture not only enriches the research content on reservoir architecture but also provides theoretical support for the characterization of heterogeneity in marine facies reservoirs.
Three-Dimensional Ionospheric Evolution and Asymmetry of the Electron Density Depletion Generated by the 21 June 2020 Annular Solar Eclipse
Authors: Zhai Changzhi , Dang Tong , Yao Yibin , Kong Jian
Published: March 2024

The three‐dimensional computerized ionospheric tomography (3DCIT) technique has been used to reconstruct the ionospheric response to the 21 June 2020 annular solar eclipse and the results are evaluated by constellation observing system for meteorology, ionosphere, and climate (COSMIC) observations. The 3DCIT-derived electron density (Ne) difference between the eclipse and quiet days showed that the Ne depletion was between 200-550 km and the maximum magnitude was about -3.0×1011 el/m3 which was at 280 km in altitude. The contributions from below 250 and 350 km altitudes to VTEC (Vertical Total Electron Content) depletion were ~30% and ~60%, respectively. Significant asymmetry of Ne depletion with respect to the eclipse path was captured in 3DCIT results, and the deviation conditions between the Ne depletion central line and eclipse path varied at different altitudes. Simulations with the thermosphere‐ionosphere‐electrodynamics general circulation model (TIEGCM) generally showed consistent ionospheric variations with GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) VTEC and 3DCIT electron density. Furthermore, term analysis on the ion continuity equation indicates that the asymmetry of Ne depletion was mainly induced by the neutral wind disturbance which converged toward the eclipse region and caused opposite transport effects on both sides of the eclipse path. The thermospheric composition was also changed by disturbed neutral wind and impacted plasma production and loss rates, contributing to the Ne depletion asymmetry.
Structural architecture of the active eastern Achara-Trialeti fold-and-thrust belt (Tbilisi urban area), Georgia
Authors: Bekurashvili Mariam , Shikhashvili Tamar , Alania Victor
Published: March 2024

Our study area, Tbilisi urban area is located in the eastern Achara-Trialeti fold-and-thrust belt. The Achara-Trialeti fold-and-thrust belt, which is one of the good examples of collision-driven far-field deformations, is located within the northernmost part of the Lesser Caucasus orogen and is associated with Arabia-Eurasia convergence. Our interpretation has integrated seismic reflection profiles, several oil wells, and surface geology data to reveal the deformation structural style of the eastern Achara-Trialeti fold-and-thrust belt. Fault-related folding theories were used for seismic interpretation. Seismic reflection data reveal the presence of south-vergent and north-vergent fault-propagation folds, duplexes, and structural wedge. Interpreted seismic reflection profiles, structural cross-section, and recent earthquakes reveal the presence of an active blind thrust fault and structural wedge(s) beneath Tbilisi and the surrounding area. The structural model shows that the 2002 Mw 4.5 Tbilisi earthquake was related to a north-vergent blind thrust and the Kumisi and Teleti earthquakes are related to a north-vergent blind wedge thrust system.
Flood divides: Hillslope connectivity and physicoclimatic controls   
Authors: Bhargav Kumar Kanneganti , Dey Pankaj , P Mujumdar Pradeep
Published: March 2024

The presence of flood divides, which are discontinuities or abrupt shifts in flood frequency curves, makes it challenging to accurately estimate the likelihood of rare floods. Such shifts in flood frequency curves have significant implications for hydrologic design. Additionally, fitting a smooth distribution on limited flood data that does not well represent the shift, may result in an underestimation of flood discharges. There are numerous process-based approaches in literature for understanding the occurrence of flood divides and identifying the potential factors contributing to their emergence. Despite numerous studies, there is a lack of consistent descriptors for flood divide. In this work, a new approach is proposed to combine hydroclimatic records and hillslope connectivity  (Michalek et al., 2023) to explain the occurrence of the flood divide. It consists of i) determination of flood divides using a mechanistic-stochastic approach and empirical approach (Miniussi et al., 2023), ii) estimation of the Index of Connectivity (IC) of the catchment, which refers to the linkage of upstream sources and downstream transport pathways, iii) estimation of general additive model for location, scale, and shape (GAMLSS) using IC and hydroclimate data as drivers in a catchment. This approach is aimed to provide reliable descriptors of flood divides for a wide range of catchments located across different hydroclimatic zones. The methodology is demonstrated through several case studies of CAMELS datasets. This work can be extended to understand the impact of climate change on hillslope connectivity and interplay in increasing the magnitude of rare floods. Furthermore, it elucidates flood divides as an emergent property arising from the interplay between climate and landscape processes.        
References:
Michalek, A. T., Villarini, G., & Husic, A. (2023). Climate change projected to impact structural hillslope connectivity at the global scale. Nature Communications, 14(1), 6788. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42384-2
Miniussi, A., Merz, R., Kaule, L., & Basso, S. (2023). Identifying discontinuities of flood frequency curves. Journal of Hydrology, 617(PB), 128989. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128989
 
 
 
Simulating and analysing seabird flyways: An approach combining least-cost path modelling and machine learning
Authors: Skyllas Nomikos , Verhoeven Mo , Loonen Maarten , Bintanja Richard
Published: March 2024

Seabird migration is driven by general wind circulation and productive ocean regions. As a result, bird migration takes place along distinct corridors or "flyways” that have evolved by earth’s large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. These flyways form a link between climate and bird migration, and by simulating their pattern we might better understand the present corridor and predict the potential future impacts of climate change. However, few studies have focused on modelling flyways (especially for multiple bird strategies, populations, seasons, species and oceans), with most of them simulating trajectories of individual birds.We use climatic data in combination with a least-cost-path modelling approach to simulate and describe multiple seabird flyways. By combining bird tracking data and machine learning, we are able to infer whether the flyways used by the birds optimise time and/or energy. We focussed on five seabird flyways of arctic terns and sooty shearwaters, both spring and autumn migration either over the Atlantic or the Pacific Ocean. We will show that a bird's effort is influenced by tailwinds, crosswinds and food availability, and we use this to calculate how close to the theoretical optimal migration (time- or energy-minimising) these birds actually fly. Our findings show that it is possible to recreate observed flyways using environmental data and that these simulations can generate predictions about the effect of future climate change.
Mineralogical characteristics of a Fe-Ni-Co-Cu sulphide mineralization in Sebuku Island, Indonesia.
Authors: Fuchs Antje , Jacques Guillaume , Graupner Torsten , Swamidharma Yoseph , Cahyadi Andhi , Krisnanto Yudhi , Ernowo Ernowo , Idrus Arifudin , Vanessa Agata
Published: March 2024

Critical raw materials (e.g., Co, Ni, Pt, Sc…) are very important resources for high technology applications (e.g., renewable energies, modern electronic devices, e-mobility, medical). Most of these minor and trace elements are produced as by-products of base metal mining. Magmatic Ni-Cu sulphide ore deposits are of great economic relevance worldwide. The BMBF-funded project “StratOre” (FKZ 033R278) aims to study the high-tech element potential of newly found sulphide deposits in ophiolite sequences in Indonesia, a country, which is well known for its large number of mineral deposits. Here we present the first results of our study addressing the nature of the Sebuku Island Fe-Ni-Co-Cu sulphide ore and the distribution of base and precious metals in different minerals.Sebuku Island (SE-Kalimantan) is part of the Cretaceous accretionary Meratus collision complex and represents an obducted ophiolite at the convergent boundary of Sundaland in the NW and the compressing Paternoster microcontinent in the SE. This ophiolite complex consists of mafic-ultramafic layers and rocks of the upper mantle of Permian to Jurassic age. Cretaceous intrusions, meta-sediments and mafic-intermediate intrusions are overlain by Tertiary and Quaternary sediments. Serpentinization started prior to obduction and became affected by cretaceous magmatism and alteration. One of the Early Cretaceous intrusions is supposed to represent a mantle wedge and is marked by high-temperature serpentine (Sulistyohariyanto and Soesilo, 2017, Cahyadi et al., 2017, Imani et al., 2020).Massive Fe-Ni laterite (mined since 2000 by PT SILO) is overlying a recently observed Fe-Ni-Co-Cu sulphide mineralization, which is hosted by high-temperature serpentinite in the cumulus zone of the ultramafic ophiolite complex. Our sample material is taken from 14 drill cores within depths of 22 m to 109 m. The studied mineralization occurs as massive, erratic and disseminated sulphides. Formation of the ore body is probably resulted from subsequent magmatic and hydrothermal processes. The base metal sulphide-ore mineralogy is represented mainly by pentlandite, pyrrhotite, pyrite, chalcopyrite and cobaltite; a large number of further sulphides and arsenides are observed as well. We highlight the extraordinary enrichment of Co in Fe-S, Fe-Ni-S and Ni-S minerals, as well as the extraordinary enrichment of Ni in pyrrhotite and pyrite. Platinum-group elements are not enriched in any of the ore types.
Post-glacial politics: the making of a climate opportunity in Switzerland
Authors: Baruffa Chloe
Published: March 2024

How do policy actors imagine and govern post-glacial areas – namely, the lands and lakes which form upon glaciers retreat? Much of the recent literature has investigated the biological and geomorphological  processes at play in the formation of post-glacial areas. (Bosson et al. 2023; Wilkes et al. 2023; Gobbi et al. 2021; Cauvy-Fraunié and Dangles 2019). However, few works have looked into the social processes through which post-glacial areas acquire meaning, value, and are associated with policy projects. As alpine biomes change in the context of glacier retreat, so do projects for their (non)usage (Zimmer et al. 2021). Based on the results of a PhD thesis, this contribution investigates the emergence, contestation, and institutionalization of different political imaginaries surrounding post-glacial areas.
I use the case of post glacial areas in the Swiss Alps as a key example in which biophysical changes following glacier melting are seized, framed, and reframed by policy actors ranging from scientists, private companies, politicians to NGOS. Combining insights from policy process theory,  Science and Technology Studies (STS), and the analysis of 58 elite interviews conducted between mars and December 2022, I argue that post-glacial areas were constituted as opportunities for hydropower storage as a result of three processes: the emergence of a dominant imaginary of post-glacial areas in sciences (1), its uptake, co-production, and legitimization in politics (2), and the delegitimization of alternative political imaginaries (3). In doing so, I ask: how do actors form and contest different visions of post-glacial areas? And why are some definitions of post-glacial areas institutionalized over others?
Measuring Resilience: A Systematic Meta-Review
Authors: Hung Tony Wei-Tse , Comes Tina , Piccillo Giulia
Published: March 2024

Resilience to natural hazards and climate change is a rather wicked and complex subject, such that it requires the knowledge of several disciplines such as economics, governance, engineering, sociology, and environmental science. The intertwining of these different disciplines results in a symphony of clashes and harmony, but all of this relies heavily on the foundations of research methods.With a PRISMA-guided systematic meta-review on the measurement of social, community, disaster, organizational, urban, and infrastructural resilience angles, 708 records of systematic reviews were filtered down to 29 reviews after snowballing through articles. Through social-computational analysis, our meta-review focuses on three key questions:How are the different resilience reviews related?
What are the most apparent resilience characteristics considered?
What are some general characteristics of quantitative metrics from different resilience angles?
 Through our analysis, several insights could be deduced:Through bibliographic coupling, infrastructural resilience reviews are tightly coupled together, and are distinct from the other resilience angles.
Using text analysis, such as word clouds and hierarchical clustering, definitions of resilience are diverse and vary within and between resilience angles.
By surveying the indicators used in quantifying resilience, there is a clear disconnect between infrastructural resilience quantification and other angles of resilience. In particular, non-infrastructural resilience measurements tend to focus on the inherent capacity approach of resilience, whereas infrastructure resilience tends to capture both inherent resiliency of systems and the performance approach of resilience.
 Lastly, we have found that infrastructural resilience measurements tend to fixate on the technical domain it is in, whereas urban resilience measurements tend to take a more comprehensive approach encompassing several disciplines. This distinction highlights the need for a comprehensive and integrated approach to measuring resilience. We urge that infrastructural resilience should not solely focus on the functionalities of its systems, but also include the actors, users, and societal dynamics which critical infrastructure systems are embedded in. With the emergence of the System of Systems approach, it is a ripe opportunity to transform beyond disciplinary boundaries and focus on the interdependencies between humans and the built environment.
Shift of soil moisture-temperature coupling exacerbated 2022 compound hot-dry event in eastern China
Authors: Ni Yueyang , Qiu Bo , Miao Xin , Li Lingfeng , Chen Jiuyi , Tian Xiaohui , Zhao Siwen , Guo Weidong
Published: March 2024

Compound hot-dry events (CHDEs) are among the deadliest climate hazards and are occurring with increasing frequency under global warming. The Yangtze River Basin in China experienced a record-breaking CHDE in the summer of 2022, causing severe damage to human societies and ecosystems. Recent studies have emphasized the role of atmospheric circulation anomalies in driving this event. However, the contribution of land–atmosphere feedback to the development of this event remains unclear. Here, we investigated the impacts of soil moisture-temperature coupling on the development of this concurrent heatwave and drought. We showed that large amounts of surface net radiation were partitioned to sensible heat instead of latent heat as the soil moisture-temperature coupling pattern shifted from energy-limited to water-limited under low soil moisture conditions, forming positive land–atmosphere feedback and leading to unprecedented hot extremes in August. The spatial heterogeneity of hot extremes was also largely modulated by the land–atmosphere coupling strength. Furthermore, enhanced land–atmosphere feedback has played an important role in intensifying CHDEs in this traditional humid region. This study improves the understanding of the development of CHDEs from three aspects, including timing, intensity, and spatial distribution, and enables more effective early warning of CHDEs.
Spatial analysis of CDR implications for global biodiversity refugia
Authors: Prütz Ruben , Rogelj Joeri , Fuss Sabine , Price Jeff , Forstenhäusler Nicole , Warren Rachel , Derci Augustynczik Andrey Lessa , Havlík Petr , Kraxner Florian
Published: March 2024

Background: Due to ongoing delays in deep global emission reductions, and as more and more countries set national net-zero CO2 targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is continuously gaining importance and attention. Virtually all Paris-aligned AR6 mitigation pathways imply gigatonne-scale CO2 removal even before mid-century, with further upscaling thereafter. Integrated assessment models, used to explore the solution space, currently primarily rely on removals via bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) and afforestation, which require massive amounts of land to meet scenario-implied removal scales. This substantial land demand is expected to have severe consequences for biodiversity, which could limit the sustainable scaling potential of these CDR options. Meanwhile, depending on the mode of implementation, afforestation could theoretically benefit habitat conservation in some cases, easing the immense pressure on biodiversity due to ongoing global warming and deforestation.Objective: By combining spatially-resolved data on biodiversity refugia with spatial time series data from the Global Biosphere Management Model (GLOBIOM) on bioenergy crop plantations and afforestation under different mitigation scenarios, we estimate and compare land use and warming-related pressure on remaining global biodiversity refugia. We compare different biodiversity recovery assumptions after peak warming, consider the land use pressure of ongoing deforestation, and explore additional warming-related refugia loss when excluding CDR from scenarios.Preliminary results: We show how scenarios with more ambitious temperature outcomes result in higher land use-related pressure on remaining biodiversity refugia areas as more land-intensive CDR is implied in such pathways. Meanwhile, more decisive climate action, including more CDR, substantially reduces the warming-related loss of remaining biodiversity refugia areas. The underlying biodiversity recovery assumptions strongly impact the degree of warming-related refugia loss with considerably less influence on land use-related implications. Generally, the perceived trends are stronger towards 2100 compared to mid-century.
Decision-Relevant Climate Storylines: Using Seasonal Decision-Scaling to Identify Flood Changes in Uncertain GCM Trends
Authors: Buskop Ted , Sperna Weiland Frederiek , van den Hurk Bart
Published: March 2024

As global climate patterns shift, Europe faces increasing challenges from key risks such as floods. However, translating this knowledge into locally usable risk information presents a significant challenge. A primary reason is the large variability associated with climate projection outcomes, particularly in precipitation patterns. This paper introduces a seasonal decision-scaling approach to identify decision-relevant climate storylines for regional discharge patterns, which are crucial in assessing flood risks. We sample scenarios within the uncertainty space of future projections and employ a statistical weather generator to determine probabilistic flow changes. Through the analysis of flow changes across various climate scenarios, we identify the most impactful seasonal climate parameters. These parameters are then used to cluster Global Climate Models, from which we create a set of decision-relevant climatological storylines for floods. A case study in Latvia demonstrates that river flows depend on only a few key seasonal parameters, indicating that the uncertainty can be effectively captured with a select number of distinct climatological storylines. This study not only simplifies the complexity of analysing future climate risks but also enhances the practicality of climate information at the regional level. Our novel seasonal approach to decision-scaling and the selection of decision-relevant climate storylines can be applied globally in areas where GCMs indicate varying climate trends and can also be used for drought analyses. This methodology leads to simpler climate risk information, thereby fostering improved and more robust adaptation strategies.
Climatological Evaluation of the Mei-yu Front Representation in CMIP
Authors: Leckebusch Gregor C. , Ng Kelvin S. , Hodges Kevin I.
Published: March 2024

Given the significant socioeconomic impact of the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), a critical area of investigation involves comprehending how the EASM and, consequently, the hydrological cycle over East Asia might change in future climates. To address this inquiry, reliable climate models must be employed. While assessments of model performance commonly concentrate on the generated precipitation amounts during the EASM period, it is important to note that the representation of dynamical components such as the Mei-yu front (MYF) are not frequently investigated. As model outputs may be correct for incorrect reasons, the dynamical components of the EASM might be misrepresented.In this investigation, we scrutinized the representation of the MYF in historical simulations of 38 CMIP6 models from May to August, comparing them to ERA5. Our findings reveal that numerous CMIP6 models encounter difficulties in reproducing the climatology of the MYF similar to observations. By sub-sampling models based on the meridional position bias of the MYF in May, we identified distinct monthly variations within these groupings. Additionally, the origins of these biases were examined. Our study stresses the link between the misrepresentation of MYF climatology in CMIP6 models and the depiction of the North Pacific High, particularly its western edge. The implications of these discoveries are also explored. 
Monthly Arctic sea ice prediction based on a data-driven deep learning model 
Authors: Huan Xiaohe , Wang Jielong , Liu Zhongfang
Published: March 2024

There is growing interest in sub-seasonal to seasonal predictions of Arctic sea ice due to its potential effects on midlatitude weather and climate extremes. Current prediction systems are largely dependent on physics-based climate models. While climate models can provide good forecasts for Arctic sea ice at different timescales, they are susceptible to initial states and high computational costs. Here we present a purely data-driven deep learning model, UNet-F/M, to predict monthly sea ice concentration (SIC) one month ahead. We train the model using monthly satellite-observed SIC for the melting and freezing seasons, respectively. Results show that UNet-F/M has a good predictive skill of Arctic SIC at monthly time scales, generally outperforming several recently proposed deep learning models, particularly for September sea-ice minimum. Our study offers a perspective on sub-seasonal prediction of future Arctic sea ice and may have implications for forecasting weather and climate in northern midlatitudes.
Shortwave cloud warming effect observed over Greenland
Authors: Zhang Haotian , Zhao Chuanfeng , Chen Annan , Zhao Xin , Zhou Yue
Published: March 2024

Clouds play a pivotal role in regulating the Earth's energy budget, primarily by exerting a global net cooling effect through the competing effects of shortwave radiation shading and longwave radiation trapping. However, here we report a shortwave warming effect by clouds over Greenland, contrary to the conventional belief of a cooling effect. Utilizing satellite observations from the Greenland region during the summers from 2013 to 2022, we identify a positive shortwave cloud radiative forcing when the ratio of surface albedo to top-of-atmosphere (TOA) reflectivity surpasses 1.42, implying that cloud induced warming can occur in any place when the surface is bright enough compared with TOA. Moreover, we find that the shortwave cloud warming effect on the Earth-atmosphere system is particularly prominent for optically thin clouds. These findings are crucial for understanding the radiation budget over polar regions and improving the prediction of polar ice melting.
Game-Changing Cities: Toward Sustainable Transportation with Citizen Science in Bologna’s Living Lab 
Authors: Carlone Teresa , Tondini Selene
Published: March 2024

Climate change poses a significant threat to the well-being of humanity, territories, and resources. In the city of Bologna, Italy, environmental, societal, and digital challenges mirror those experienced globally in urban spaces such as air pollution, and intense urban mobility stemming from escalating urbanization. Addressing these issues, the H2020 I-CHANGE project,  "Individual Change of HAbits Needed for Green European transition," aims to demonstrate the potential for collective behavioral change by actively engaging civil society in innovative citizen science initiatives (Goudeseune et al., 2020; Vohland, 2021). University of Bologna established the Bologna Living Lab, involving a broad network of stakeholders based on the Quintuple Helix of Innovation (Carayannis et al., 2012), to enhance awareness of climate change impacts in urban areas and encourage behavioral shifts toward more socially and environmentally sustainable lifestyles.
Despite ongoing scholarly debates surrounding the definition of citizen science and its capacity to generate accessible and democratic knowledge, the I-CHANGE project embraces a participatory approach. The research methodology incorporates serious game techniques, traditionally applied in educational contexts, to augment citizen science activities. These serious games, blending serious objectives with playful elements, create immersive and engaging experiences, motivating participants to actively contribute to scientific endeavors. This integration marks a paradigm shift in citizen science, fostering increased public involvement in data collection, analysis, and discussion of results, ultimately enhancing the identification of climate change-related phenomena (Wiggins and Crowston, 2011; Irwin et al., 2012). 

The Bologna Living Lab adopts a two-step research approach, utilizing surveys and serious game mapping activities. The focus is on urban mobility, with "Mani in Mappa!" initiative, to investigate how mobility strategies can induce behavioral change toward sustainable and low-emission options. Collaborative serious games are utilized to promote awareness of the need for accessible, equal, and fair public transport. This comprehensive research contributes significantly to understanding the multi-level dynamics of mobility systems. It incorporates social, economic, and technological variables and holds the potential to inform and guide sustainable urban development initiatives. Bologna Living Lab and the I-CHANGE project stand for and promote innovative solutions, leveraging citizen science and serious game methodologies to address critical issues and pave the way for a more sustainable future. 
Hazards and risk assessment for Volcanoes of Turkey 
Authors: Sparks Stephen , Atici Gokhan , Brown Sarah , Karaman-Little Bilge , Woodhouse Mark
Published: March 2024

Turkey has 14 active volcanoes known to have had eruptions of Holocene age and four historic eruptions have been recorded. The last eruption was at Ağri (Ararat) in 1840, when an estimated 1900 people died. The low rate of eruptions in Turkey might be construed as indicating low risk, but this is misleading for two reasons. Firstly, the Holocene record indicates that many of the volcanoes have had significant explosive eruptions, some including long run-outs of pyroclastic flows and blasts. Secondly, there has been huge population growth in cities on the flanks of active volcanoes, which greatly increases exposure. More than 3.1 million people live within 30 km of active volcanoes in Turkey.  Urban development on the surface of Holocene pyroclastic flows and blast deposits lead to high risk should volcanic activity resume. The vulnerability is further exacerbated through current populations having no experience of past eruptions. In the TurcVolc project, profiles of all Turkey’s active volcanoes were developed with an emphasis on hazards and risk assessment. Modelling of these hazards provides a baseline for identifying potential hazard zones for future eruptions. The above points are illustrated by presenting volcanic hazard and risk profiles for Erciyes Daği and Hasan Daği volcanoes. The Volcanic Hazard and Population Exposure Indices for each volcano were used to develop a risk matrix for Turkish volcanoes. Four volcanoes were identified at risk level III (high risk). These were Erciyes Dağı, Gölcük, Hasandağ and Nemrut. Three volcanoes exhibited dominantly effusive behaviour and small-scale explosive activity at risk level I (low risk). These were Karapınar Volcanic Field, Karacadağ and Kars Plateau. The remaining volcanoes (Ağri, Tendurek, Acıgol, Kula, Golludag, Süphan, Girekol) were classified at risk level II (intermediate risk).
A Fresh Start for Flood Estimation in Ungauged Catchments
Authors: Woods Ross , Yin Yiming , Evangelista Giulia , Claps Pierluigi , Giani Giulia , Zheng Yanchen , Coxon Gemma , Quaglia Roberto , Han Dawei , Rico-Ramirez Miguel
Published: March 2024

Flood estimation in ungauged basins is important for flood design, and for improving our understanding of the sensitivity of flood magnitude to changes in climate and land cover. Flood estimates in ungauged basins by current methods (e.g. statistical regression, unit hydrograph) have high uncertainty, even in places with dense observing networks (e.g. +/- 50-100% in the UK). Reductions in this uncertainty are being sought by using alternative methods, such as continuous simulation using hydrological models (spatially-distributed or lumped), and event-scale derived distribution approaches. The very significant challenges for reliable application of continuous simulation models in ungauged catchments are well known. So far there has been only limited application of machine learning techniques to this problem, but it seems an obvious route to try, but to exploit the big-data strengths of this approach, the problem must be recast to extract information from many more events at each site than just annual maximum events.The event-scale derived distribution approach also has challenges, which we explore below. The derived distribution approach at the event scale typically combines the following elements: a stochastic rainfall model, an event-scale rainfall-runoff model (including “losses” and a “baseflow” component), and a runoff routing model. In principle, every element of this approach may be considered as a (seasonally varying) random variable. The flood peak distribution is obtained by integrating over joint distributions of the model elements. After giving an overview of our approach, I will focus on challenges regarding the catchment response time associated with flood events.How should we define catchment response time? Why do we need this quantity and how will it be used? What are the relative merits of empirical and model/theory-based approaches? Specifically, I will discuss the empirical DMCA method for catchment response time of Giani et al, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020wr028201). How is it relevant for ungauged catchments? What does DMCA really measure? How do we assign hydrological meaning to this empirical response time? How does this response time vary between events and catchments?
An Algorithm For Determination of CME Kinematic Parameters Based On Machine Learning
Authors: Lin Rongpei , Yang Yi , Shen Fang , Pi Gibert , Li Yucong
Published: March 2024

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) are the major source of space weather events, causing severe disturbance to Sun-Earth space environment. Since there are more and more space activities and facilities, it’s becoming increasingly significant to detect and track CMEs. We develop a new algorithm to automatically detect CMEs and derive CME’s kinematic parameters based on machine learning. Our method consists of three steps: Recognition, tracking and determination of parameters. First, we train a convolutional neural network (CNN) to classify images from SOHO LASCO coronagraph observation into two categories that contains CME(s) or not. Next, we apply Principal Component Analysis (PCA) algorithm and Otsu’s method to acquire binary-labelled CME regions. Then, we employ the track-match algorithm to track CME motion in time-series image sequence and finally determine CME kinematic parameters e.g., velocity, angular width (AW), and central position angle (CPA). The algorithm is validated on several CME events with different morphological characteristics. We compare the results with a manual CME catalog and automatic CME catalogs (including Computer Aided CME Tracking (CACTus), Solar Eruptive Event Detection System (SEEDS), CORonal Image Process method (CORIMP)). Our algorithm shows some advantages in the recognition of CME structure and the accuracy of the kinematic parameters. In the future, the algorithm is capable of being applied to initialize magnetohydrodynamic simulations to study the propagation characteristics of real CME events in the interplanetary space, and provide a more efficient prediction of CMEs' geo-effectiveness.
Conversion of Interval Velocities into Thermal Models: A Game Changer Method for Subsurface Energy Exploitation Projects 
Authors: Uyanik Ayberk
Published: March 2024

Revealing the thermal structure of subsurface is crucial for various projects including geothermal energy exploitation, CCS and hydrocarbon exploration. For instance, temperature is one of the key physical underground parameters governing the type of Geothermal systems, whether injected CO2 remains in supercritical fluid stage and the depth of Golden Zone at where the hydrocarbon accumulations occur. Thus, understanding the temperature and geothermal gradient change in 1D-2D-3D sense indicates sweet spots and helps geoscientists to build more robust models to reduce the risks.Based on this concept, this study aims to demonstrate the outcomes of a game-changer method which is the conversion of interval velocities into temperatures, thermal conductivities and heat flows by the help of recently proposed empirical relationships. As a case study, Northern Arabian Plate, SE Turkey is selected due to the neglection of thermal conditions in the area. Therefore, oil & gas industry-wide accepted methodologies have been applied to better understand thermal behaviour of the subsurface and how it has been controlled by regional tectonic edifices including large-scale thrust and strike slip faults.In terms of methodology, as the first step, dynamic bottom hole temperatures of the wells have been converted into static ones by the help of “Temperature Analyser” web application. The converted temperature measurements have been used to generate regional temperature and geothermal gradient maps for every 500 meters. On the other hand, for 3D temperature models, seismic velocities have been converted into temperature cubes after calibration with the converted BHT measurements. Generated temperature cubes have been reflected on seismic sections to display lateral and vertical variations in temperature behaviour. It also allows the detection of meaningful temperature anomalies corresponding to possible fluid content.The results reveal that abrupt temperature increase on maps directly coincides with the locations of oil producing fields. The same behaviour was noted globally both for hydrocarbon and geothermal fields. The change in temperature trend is also dominated by regional tectonics of the focus area. Large thrust fault systems act as boundaries for thermal anomaly regions while sinistral Mosul Fault Zone displaces and separates high temperature zones in a NW-SE sense. This movement can be easily associated with the Northern slip of the Arabian Plate since the continental collision occurred in the Miocene. Based on these observations, the workflows and results of this study can be used for detailed investigation of subsurface geology, thermal conditions, and their effect on potential reservoirs for geothermal and CO2 storage. Workflows used to generate thermal models might allow the development of more efficient sustainable energy projects not only for the Northern sector of the Arabian plate but also for the other regions of the World.