The impact of trade liberalization on the export of metal products from Ukraine
Authors: Lohvynenko Yevhenii 
Published: January 2025

Introduction. The article examines the impact of trade liberalization on the export of steel products from Ukraine, particularly in the context of war and destruction caused by Russian aggression. Metallurgy, as one of the key sectors of Ukraine’s national economy, accounted for a significant share of the country’s gross domestic product and exports both before and during the full-scale military invasion. The onset of Russian aggression in 2014 led to the loss of control over several metallurgical enterprises in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, and with the start of the full-scale invasion, the loss of production capacities significantly increased, resulting in a substantial reduction in the production and export of steel products. The introductory section of the article provides a review of scientific studies that highlight the influence of external factors, such as the global steel market situation, currency fluctuations, and war, on the dynamics of steel exports from Ukraine. This article focuses on studying the impact of trade liberalization in the context of new trade realities caused by the war, infrastructure destruction, and logistical constraints, which directly affect the export of steel products from Ukraine.
Purpose. To determine the impact of trade liberalization by international partners on the export of steel products from Ukraine in the context of new trade realities caused by the war.
Method (methodology). For the analysis of the impact of various factors on the export of steel products, including production of steel products, the security factor, the exchange rate, and the liberalization factor, correlation-regression analysis was used.
Results. An analysis of the economic indicators of production and export of metal products was carried out, and the scale of losses in Ukraine's metallurgical industry during the war was assessed. The main focus was on the actions of international partners aimed at supporting the Ukrainian economy by removing tariffs and quotas on Ukrainian goods, as well as the factors affecting the production and export of steel products from Ukraine. It was found that the significant rise in energy costs and shortages caused by the destruction of energy infrastructure are limiting the production activities of metallurgical enterprises. Using correlation-regression analysis, the impact of key factors on the export of steel products was determined: steel production volumes, the security factor, exchange rates, and the level of trade liberalization. It was established that trade liberalization is not a significant factor influencing the physical volume of steel exports from Ukraine, while other factors, particularly security and production, have a more significant impact. The role of trade liberalization in facilitating access to international markets for Ukrainian goods was identified. Future research could explore changes in export geography, including the growing role of the EU and the recovery of markets in Asia, Africa, and the U.S. following the unblocking of seaports. Additionally, new logistical routes, the impact of trade liberalization, and the implementation of innovative technologies for the restoration of production and diversification of products should be studied.