bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A Size-Function Typology of Cities
Authors: Atchley Robert C.
Published: March 2007

En este artículo se presentan las caracteristicas de un sistemaidealdeclasificación, y se desarrolla un nuevo sistema, que tiene esias características, para la clasificación de las áreas urbanas. En este nuevo sistema para la clasificación de las áreas urbanas se utiliza, como eriterios variables, tanto la función económica como el tamaño, El trabajo demuestra la superioridad del sistema tamaño-función sobre los sistemas puramente funcionales, y presenia una clasificación tamaño-functional de todas las áreas urbanasde Estados Unidos con más de 10,000 habitantes en 1960.
Projected innovations in the data delivery system for the 1970 census
Authors: Beresford John C.
Published: March 2007

Uno de los elementos críticos en el rompecabezas de la accesibilidad a los datos es conocer las necesidades del usuario, porque con este conocimiento, crear dicha accesibilidad sería relativamente simple. Pero este conocimiento, nunca puede ser desarrollado en forma completa porque se han utilizado inéditos del censo para problemas no anticipados.

Sinembargo, se conocen muchas necesidades, y con una definición flexible de los resultados del censo, hay la posibilidad de satisfacer algunas no anticipadas. Una definición flexible podría ser: “una colección de datos básicos, sumarios revisados de esios datos, y un conjunto de técnicas para utilizar la coleccion y los sumarios.” Esta definición pone énfasis en ligeros arreglos de orqanización, que permitan flexibilidad para satisfacer lossiempre cambiantes requerimientos analiticos delusuario. Los resultados represeniariin. un sistema rutinario de información.

Utilizando esia definición, la oficina está comprometida a mejorar su rendimiento. Algunos desarrollos pertinentes son: (1) un laboratorio para hallarsolucum. a los problemas de acceso y uso de datos; (2) un centro de documentación i archivo de los datos censales; (3) un diccionario de definiciones universales y un sistema índice-código universal para conceptos; (4) programas de computócum analítica para comparar las características de muchas areas pequeiias; (5) mapas y cuadros demaqraficoe preparados en computadoras; (6) eoaluacióti de indicadores sociales sobre la base de los datos censolee; (7) capacidad para procesar datos en lugares donde no funciona la oficina; (8) descripción dela accesibilidad dedatos denuevas técnicas; y (9) una discriminacitm. sobre la necesidad de datos diseñada para eliminar la duplicación,
Recent Immigration and Studies of Ethnic Assimilation
Authors: Taeuber Alma F. , Taeuber Karl E.
Published: March 2007

Los estudios de asimilación étnica se basan frecuentemente en la comparación del status entre lo s nacidos en el extranjero y sus descendientes, “la segunda qeneración:” En este procedimiento está implícita la suposición de que la immigración reciente ha sido insignificante y que los nacidos en el extranjero representan una población cerrada. Sinembargo, un análisis de las estadisticas oficiales indica que los inmigrantes que llegaron desde la Segunda Guerra Mundial constituyen ahora una parte apreciable de la poblacion nacida en el extranjero, mientras que los nacidos fuera del pais que llegaron antes de que se establecieran cuotas de resiricción, están siendo rapidamenie diezmados por la mortalidad.

Los últimos inmigrantes, de acuerdo a la iniención de la ley que fija cuotas, son de un status socioeconómico mucho más elevado que los inmigrantes que llegaron antes de la Primera Guerra Mundial. Por lo tanto, en los datos sobre la población nacida fuera del país, se confunden las características de los últimos inmigrantes con las de los que llegaron primero. Los datos existentes no permiten un enjuiciamiento riguroso de esta confusión, o un adecuado control de la misma. Este trabajo sugiere que las tabulaciones para los nacidos fuera del pais por “año de llegada,” mejorarían la utilidad sociolóqica de los datos para grupos étnicos.
Occupational Classification
Authors: Martin Margaret E.
Published: March 2007

La necesidad de un sistema de clasificación de las ocupaciones comunes ha empezado a hacerse más importante que la precisión de un sistema de doeificación de propósito múltiple. El reciente incremento, en el gobierno, de las fuentes de estadísticas de ocupación, la variedad de usos queseda a los datos clasificados por ocupación, y la insatisfacción teórica que se evidencia en la literatura reciente, hacen deseable que se desarrolle, para todas las agencias, un solo sistema standard de clasificación.

Se ha, iniciado el trabajo sobre un sistema declasificación standard(actualmente en los principales grupos de profesionales, técnicoe, y trabajadores relacionados). Aunque los resultados finales no estarán disponibles para utilizarlos en el Censo de 1970, hay un esfuerzo considerable para disminuir las grandes categorías residuales del Censo y para desarrollar una lista más detallada de clasificaciones. El estadístico debe saber que el trabajo está progresando, en una de las clasificaciones ed creciente importancia para él.
On Measuring the Marriage Squeeze
Authors: Akers Donald S.
Published: March 2007

A partir de 1960, los hombres solieros se han casado a una tasa cada oee creciente, y las mujeres solteras a una tasa decreciente. Estas tendencias pueden ser explicadas, casi enteramente, por la desproporción entre los sexos en las edades en las que ocurre el matrimonio con más frecuencia, lo que comunmente se conoce como “presion matrimonial.” Las desproporciones surgieron de un aumenlo de los nacimientos durante el período de 1939-47, unido al hecho de que las mujeres se casan más jovenes que los hombres.

Estos cambios en los patrones de matrimonio deben tener calgun efecto, aunque talvez secundario, sobre la tasa de nacimientos y sobre la formación de hogares. Las consecuencias de esios cambios constituyen un proyecto para mayor investigación.
Premarital pregnancies and out-of-wedlock births in denmark, 1950–65
Authors: Goldstein Sidney
Published: March 2007

A pesar de que una comprensiva investigación de los modelos de espaciamiento de nacimientos requiere tambien la consideración de aquellos que son concebidos antes del matrimonio, la información detallada sobre esios nacimientos frecuentemente no existe, sobre todo en los Estados Unidos. En cambio, las estadisticas de Dinamarca sobre primeros nacimientos de acuerdo a la duración del matrimonio, y de nacimientos fuera de matrimonio permiten la evaluación de tendencias en gestaciones premaritales. Para el periodo 1950-64, ellas señalan, (1) un aumento en el porcentaje de todas las novias que llegan preñadas al matrimonio, (2) un aumento en la proporcion de primeros nacimientos que ocurren en los primeros 6, y entre los primeros 6 y 9 meses desde el matrimonio; y (3) unaumento de los nacimientos fuera del matrimonio. La tendencia señalada es para todo el pais, pero especial-mente marcada en Copenhagen, esto último refleja el caracter mas urbano de la capital, su mayor permisividad, y la atracción de jóvenes immigrantes. Un analisis diferenciado por edades revela que casi el 90% de todos los primeros nacimientos entre mujeres casadas menores de 20 años, y un 50% de todos los primeros nacimientos de la mujeres entre 20 y 24 años de edad han sido concebidos premaritalmente. El aumento en el número de primeros nacimientos para las mujeres jóvenes es la principal causa del aumento total de concepciones premaritales. Comparada con sus suburbios, Copenhagen tenía en 1965 el nivel más alto de las gestaciones premaritales. Estas diferencia residen-ciales se originan ambas en la mayor proporción esos nacimientos para todos los grupos de edades en Copenhagen, pero especialmenie para las edades de 20 años y más, y en el hecho de que Compenhagen tiene proporcionalmente más primeros nacimientos entre las mujeres de menos de 20 años de edad, siendo en este ultimo grupo de edades donde la tasa de concepciones prematrimoniales es especial-mente alta.
Industrialization, family and fertility: A structural-psychological analysis of the Brazilian case
Authors: Rosen Bemard C. , Simmons Alan B.
Published: March 2007

This paper addresses itself to some linkages between macro-social structure (industrialization, social class), social psychological variables (husband-wife decision making), psychological variables (attitudes), and fertility. A total of 726 currently mated women with proven fertility in five Brazilian communities were interviewed to determine various attitudes, their work experience, their participation in family decisions, their fertility ideals, and actual fertility. The five communities were selected along a rural-urban-industrialization continuum to include a village, two non-industrial cities, and two industrial cities (one of which was Sao Paulo). Family size in the industrial cities was small in all social strata, while in the non-industrial cities family size was large in the lower strata and declined in the upper strata. Further analysis revealed that smaller family size is associated with generally higher levels of status among women—higher educational levels, greater social contacts and more skilled employment, and equality in family decision making. Our analysis supports the hypotheses that industrialization influences fertility through shifts in the social status of women, both in their work and at home. New education and work opportunities facilitate the emergence of modern conceptions of the role of women in society and egalitarian decision making in the family. These attitudes and patterns of husband-wife interaction are related to smaller family size ideals and lower fertility.
The residential distribution of status groups in Puerto Rico’s metropolitan areas
Authors: Schwirian Kent P. , Rico-Velasco Jesus
Published: March 2007

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the pattern of residential segregation of status groups in Puerto Rico’s three metropolitan areas. The findings showed that in all three areas: (1) as the social status distance between groups increases so too does the degree of dissimilarity of their residential distributions; (2) the status groups most residentially segregated are those at the top and at the bottom of the status pyramid; (3) the pattern of residential centralization of status groups for Ponce and Mayaguez are such that the highest status groups are the most centralized while the lowest status groups are the most decentralized, but in San Juan it is the highest status groups that are the most decentralized and the lowest status groups that are the most centralized. The data are from the 1960 census. Indicators of status employed are education, occupation, and income. Differences in findings about centralization between San Juan and the other cities are explained in terms of differential economic development.
Intra-urban migrant lifelines: A spatial view
Authors: Brown Lawrence A. , Holmes John
Published: March 2007

The term intra-urban migrant lifeline refers to the sequence of residential movements made by a household within a single urban area. This study examines spatial aspects of lifelines and the relationship between such aspects and the spatial structure of the city. Spatial aspects are defined in terms of distance, directional, and sectoral biases. A variety of techniques for identifying such biases are critically discussed. The approach applied is one that transforms the spatial pattern of migrations so as to accent the spatial biases in question. Measurement of the biases is accomplished by application of standard ellipse techniques to the transformed distributions. Data for the study traces migrant lifelines for a sample of households in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, for the period 1950 through 1965. Differences in locational and social-economic characteristics of households are shown to be reflected in the spatial morphology of their respective lifelines. In general the migrant lifelines show a fairly restricted distance bias, a directional bias towards the center of the city, and a low degree of sectorality. This is in contrast to expectations generated by previous work on lifelines. Reconciliation of the findings here with previous findings employs a model that considers both the space preferences of intra-urban migrants and the set of vacancies available to them.
Rural-urban mortality in developing countries: An index for detecting rural underregistration
Authors: Arriaga Eduardo E.
Published: March 2007

This study begins with a brief analysis of past and present urban-rural mortality in those countries which are presently considered to be developed. The same analysis centers in developing countries, for it is thought that their rural mortality should be greater than their urban mortality. Since available statistics generally show the contrary, a way is presented for constructing possible means of sub-registering vital statistics in some areas of these countries. The index would vary to agree with the system of the registry of vital statistics in a given area. Mexico is used as an example—the result of constructing and analyzing the index is to show in which areas there should be a subregistry of deaths. Finally, the cases of India and Taiwan are analyzed in order to confirm the hypothesis that in developing countries there will be a higher mortality rate in. rural than in urban areas.
Measuring acceptances in a family planning program: the decomposition of rates by eligibility criteria
Authors: Takeshita John Y. , Freedman Ronald
Published: March 2007

Acceptance rates in family planning programs can be broken into components useful in analyzing programs and in evaluating success. In almost any program some couples can be defined as “ineligible” on the basis of alternative criteria. (Sterilized couples are an obvious example.) Then, the total acceptance rate can be initially separated into two components—the proportion eligible and the acceptance rate among the eligible. If some of those initially defined as ineligible become acceptors, there is a third component—the ratio of all acceptances to acceptances among the eligible only. These various components can be used to analyze the basis for varying acceptance rates between different strata of a population.
Concept, measurement, and data in migration analysis
Authors: Haenszel William
Published: March 2007

Two methods of computing migration rates—one relating moves to population at risk in place of origin and the other using as a denominator the cross-product of population in places of origin and destination—are discussed. It is concluded that the second assumes implicitly that moves originate and terminate as a random population variable.

Some difficulties with this particular model are pointed out and the author suggests that other analytical approaches to migration data be sought and in this connection refers to the literature on the mathematical theory of epidemics.
Immigration data and national population estimates for the United States
Authors: Akers Donald S.
Published: March 2007

The immigration component in national population estimates is comparatively small, but it is not insignificant and may indeed be an important source of error. Therefore, it warrants the considera-tion of those concerned with population estimates. The paper considers alternative methods for deriving estimates of immigration from the raw data and presents estimates of net immigration from 1950 to 1965. They are developed from estimates previously published by the Bureau of the Census, but they differ at some points where new data have become available or where a review of the data has led to a change in judgment on how best to use them. The paper also presents suggestions on how immigration statistics might be altered for purposes of improving the estimates.

Census data may be used to estimate net immigration by three different methods, but upon analysis each method proves to be inadequate. Hence, data based on visas surrendered at the port of entry must be the principal source of immigration estimates. These data have their limitations because (1) they do not cover net arrivals of citizens from abroad and from Puerto Rico, (2) they do not report departures of aliens, and (3) they do not allocate all immigrants to year of entry. Alien registration and passenger data offer possible alternative estimates.

The paper attempts to measure unrecorded immigration, discusses how net arrivals of citizens from abroad and from Puerto Rico may be estimated, and how the age, sex, and race of immigrants may be treated.
Sources of geographic mobility among professional workers: A multivariate analysis
Authors: Ladinsky Jack
Published: March 2007

Using the 1960 Census of Population one-in-a-thousand sample, this study investigates determinants of geographic mobility among professional, technical, and kindred workers. Multiple regression analysis reveals that age accounts for most of the explained variance in mobility, followed by income, education, regional location, sex, family size, and marital status. Additional variables—class of worker, race, nativity, professional type, size of place and industry—add no significant increments to explained variance.

More specifically, low income and high education stimulate mobility and increases in family size and age slacken it. Young married professionals move the most and farthest, males somewhat more than females. Mobility is greatest in the West, least in the Northeast. Age reduces or reverses contrasts between single and married, large and small families, high and low incomes, little and much education, and residents of East and West.

Factor analysis suggests that migration is part of two orderly processes—occupational career mobility and family life cycle. The bearing of these findings on the relationship between geographic mobility and social integration for the middleclass in the United States is considered.
A design for a census information retrieval system
Authors: Hobbs Sarah , Farley Reynolds , Winsborougha Halliman H.
Published: March 2007

This article explores the methodology of designing a storage and retrieval system for information on the nature and subjects of censuses published internationally over the past two decades. The essential key is neither data storage nor bibliography but an index which will tell a researcher what censuses provide information on particular population characteristics and how those characteristics are defined, mapped, cross-indexed, compared, and discussed.

The index should be based on specific, inclusive, and flexible classifying terms. The authors arrive at 24 variables which are grouped on two levels—category and specific item—by the use of either main tables or indexes. The use of indexes is preferred for its reduction of clerical and computer time.

In addition to the index (which should be made available in machine-readable form), the authors suggest the concomitant publication (on the basis of unified classifications) of an analysis of the relative value of different definitions of population characteristics, a merged-item vocabulary, and indexes to various censuses. Once the study has developed beyond an experimental phase limited in geographic extent and in time, the authors envision a continuing service which will provide indexes to all new censuses.
A new technique for measuring household changes
Authors: Turner Marshall L.
Published: March 2007

Because many recent policy decisions have been aimed at effecting changes in the socioeconomic characteristics of families or households, it has become necessary to isolate policy-induced changes from demographic changes in households over time. To obtain such longitudinal data, the family records from three panels of the Current Population Survey that were interviewed both in March, 1964, and March, 1965, were used in a computer record-matching operation.

The resulting data confirm that approximately 20 percera of all households are mobile in the period of a year as evidenced by the nonmatched households that were found in 1964 but not present in 1965. More important, the data indicate that S percent of the nonmobile family households became individual households, or the reverse, and 15 percent of all the remaining households changed in family size. These last two statistics represent the first national estimates of gross changes in the demographic characteristics of households.

In addition to data on changes in households, this relatively inexpensive method can be used to match Current Population Survey persons’ records and provide longitudinal data on the persons within households. Over all, this prototype technique offers policy planners an analytical tool with the necessary statistical controls for assessing the effects of policy decisions and predicting policy success.
A note on the time spent on the journey to work
Authors: Morgan James N.
Published: March 2007

The notions that most people travel to the center of the city to work and that the farther out they live the longer it takes are only appropriate for middle-sized cities. In larger urban areas, many people work outside the center, and it is the speed of travel which most affects the time that it takes to get to work. As a result, those who live in the central cities of the twelve largest metropolitan areas spend the longest time getting to work and back, because the closer one is to the center and the larger the urban area, the slower the travel speeds.
Fertility in urban areas of Mexico: Implications for the theory of the demographic transition
Authors: Zarate Alvan O.
Published: March 2007

Recent investigations indicate that fertility is not universally associated with urbanization and economic development in the manner predicted by the theory of the demographic transition. It is possible, however, that these investigations only partially test the theory, for the degree of industrialization in urbanareas is rarely taken into account. Two hypotheses are tested based upon Mexican census and vital registration data for 1940–60: (a) urban fertility is inversely related to the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy and (b) changes in urban fertility are inversely related to changes in the proportion of the urban population employed in the secondary sector of the economy.

At each census date from 1940 to 1960, the association between urban fertility (age-standardized child-woman ratio adjusted for infant mortality) and the percent in the secondary sector is low and positive. In 1960, however, the association is negative (suggesting a possible change in the direction of the association), but city growth rates and the proportion of females married are more closely related to fertility than percent in the secondary sector. Hypothesis a, then, receives little support from the data.

Much the same is true of hypothesis b. The association between changes in urban fertility and changes in the percent in the secondary sector is positive. Moreover, city growth rates and changes in the proportion literate explain more of the variation in fertility change than does the percent in the secondary sector.

In addition, over-all fertility has risen since 1940, and this rise is pronounced in large urban areas. It is suggested that among certain segments of Mexican society, the response to economic development has been an increase rather than a reduction in fertility. It is further suggested that if city growth is indicative of rural-urban migration, the presence of large numbers of rural migrants in urbanareas may help to explain the decreasing size of the urban-rural fertility differential in Mexico.

If this interpretation is correct, the theory of the demographic transition is in need of further modification, specification, and verification.
Some aspects of the use of birth expectations data from sample surveys for population projections
Authors: Siegel Jacob S. , Akers Donald S.
Published: March 2007

The value of national sample survey data relating to birth expectations for projecting births is reassessed in the light of data limitations pointed out by Ryder and Westoff among others and of the methods of projection used by the United States Bureau of the Census. The annual level of fertility under the cohort-fertility projection method depends on the assumptions regarding completed fertility, about which the available survey data are fairly informative, and on the assumptions regarding the timing of births, about which the survey data tell us very little. Test calculations suggest that Ryder and Westoff have overstated the significance of timing relative to completed family size for the level of future births. We believe that the fall in the annual total fertility rate in the first half of the sixties is to be explained only in part by a general delay in childbearing; a moderate to substantial decrease in completed family size has also occurred. Analysis of the latest set of fertility projections of the Census Bureau also suggests that the assumptions about completed fertility are a much more important determinant of the level of future births than timing, both in the short and long term. Although the available expectations data cannot help in predicting short-term annual changes in fertility, they appear useful for making long-term projections of annual fertility. Expansion of the size, frequency, and content of the sample surveys and incorporation of parity and birth interval into the projection method may improve projections.
Duration of residence and prospective migration: Further evidence
Authors: Land Kenneth C.
Published: March 2007

A basic assumption of the Cornell Mobility Model insofar as it is relevant to inter-community migration is that an individual’s propensity to move is a function of, among other things, his length of residence in the community. Parameters of the functional relationship of migration probabilities to duration status are estimated from migration histories for a sample of residents in Monterrey, Mexico, and compared with estimates reported by P. A. Morrison using data from Amsterdam, The Netherlands. In both data sets a negative nonlinear relation of the probability of migrating to duration status, as well as an interaction between age and duration status, is found. Values of parameters describing the relation within age groups differ sufficiently between the two data sets, however, to suggest that further specification of conditions under which a particular form of functional relation will obtain is necessary if the model is to be useful in migration research.
Mortality level, desired family size and population increase: Further variations on a basic model
Authors: Heer David M. , Smith Dean O.
Published: March 2007

A series of computer-simulation models relating mortality level to fertility behavior and to rates of natural increase assuming that couples made use of a perfect means of birth control, that they wanted to be highly certain of having at least one son survive to the father’s 65th birthday, and that all women were biologically capable of having the same number of children were reported earlier. A model identical to one presented earlier but assuming women to be of variable fecundity is presented here; the results are quite similar. Also, the results of models assuming that parents want to be highly certain of at least two surviving children regardless of sex are compared with models assuming parental desire to be highly certain of at least one surviving son. At high levels of mortality the rates of natural increase are quite similar. When mortality is at intermediate to medium-low levels, the two-surviving-children model shows a lower rate of natural increase than the surviving-son model. At very low levels of mortality, such as now experienced by the most advanced nations, the two-surviving-children model manifests a higher rate of natural increase than the surviving-son model.
The pattern of mortality change in Latin America
Authors: Arriaga Eduardo E. , Davis Kingsley
Published: March 2007

Using 69 new life tables recently made by Arriaga for Latin American countries by stable-population methods, the authors examine the mortality trends for more countries and more periods of history than have previously been available for analysis. For the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, the new tables yield a substantially lower life-expectancy than that shown by previously published life tables; for recent decades the difference is smaller, though in the same direction. As a consequence, the new tables show a speed of mortality decline in Latin America greater than the speed hitherto assumed. When the trend is analyzed in terms of economic development, it appears that the decline was extremely slow in the more backward Latin American countries until around 1930, whereas in the more advanced countries of the region, a more rapid decline had set in before that. After 1930, however, in both groups of countries the pace of decline was faster than ever, and it was virtually the same for both groups, suggesting that after that date public health measures were exerting a strong influence independently of local economic development. This result is confirmed by comparison with the past history of now developed countries; the mortality decline in Latin America after 1930 was much faster than it was historically at the same level in the industrial countries. As compared with other underdeveloped countries today, the unprecedented decline of mortality in Latin America is typical. In most underdeveloped countries, whether in Latin America or elsewhere, mortality change seems increasingly independent of economic improvement and more dependent on the importation of preventive medicine and public health from the industrial countries.
On the dependence of age structure on a sequence of mortality and fertility schedules: An exposition of a cyclical model of population change
Authors: Namboodiri N. Krishnan
Published: March 2007

In this paper a method to investigate the dependence of age structure and growth rate on a given sequence of fertility and mortality schedules under the conditions of unchanging mortality and absence of migration is discussed. The method consists in projecting an arbitrary population classified by age to the ends of successive periods assuming that a given age pattern of mortality will remain without change and that a given sequence of fertility schedules will repeatedly operate on the population in a cyclical fashion. It is shown that after a sufficiently large number of repetitions of the cycle, the shifts in age structure between the ends of successive periods and the changes in the growth of the different age groups from one period to the next show a cyclical pattern. Formulas are derived expressing the above changes in terms of a sequence of k growth multipliers, k being the number of schedules in the fertility sequence, and the survival rates in the mortality schedule. A numerical illustration of the theory is given using fertility data from Finland.
Changes in fertility in Japan by region: 1920–1965
Authors: Tsubouchi Yoshihiro
Published: March 2007

Changes in fertility for the 46 prefectures of Japan are traced from 1920 to 1965, using census and vital statistics. During the period, substantial declines were recorded in both marital-fertility levels and the proportions of women of childbearing age who were married. Regional variation is pronounced in the timing of the onset of the decline in marital fertility. Only in the most industrialized districts did marital fertility begin to fall before 1950; thereafter, sharp declines were recorded in all parts of Japan. The marriage proportion, in contrast, was falling rather steadily throughout the islands between 1920 and 1950, after which the proportion stabilized. The decline in overall fertility that occurred before 1950was caused, then, primarily by a reduction in the proportion married; only after 1950 did a decline in marital fertility become a. major factor. The time pattern of change in marital-fertility levels and proportions married for Japan differs from that observed in western Europe, where low proportions married are recorded in the earliest national censuses. Apparently a fall in proportions married in western Europe preceded by one or two centuries the major sustained declines in marital fertility that were part of the so-called demographic transition.
Fertility patterns among religious groups in Canada
Authors: Long Larry H.
Published: March 2007

The U shape that has been traced out by the crude birth rate in the United States and Canada is well known. Falling birth rates reached a low point in the mid-1930’s; the rate rose to a peak in 1947 and remained high through the 1950’s. In terms of cohorts, completed family size was smallest for women born around 1910, whose childbearing was concentrated in the 1930’s. With data from the 1961 census of Canada, trends in cohort marital fertility by religion are examined. The U pattern appears for both Protestants and Jews. For Catholics, a reversal in the downward trend of family size had not appeared by 1961, although the U pattern can be discerned for some subgroups such as Catholics living in big cities and persons of Irish ancestry. In the United States, however, changes in family size for all three religious groups and both whites and nonwhites follow the U pattern. Religious differentials in family size in Canada have been decreasing, but they remain much larger than either religious or color differentials in the United States, which show no decrease. The distinctive features of Catholic fertility in Canada are most pronounced among the regionallyconcentrated French Canadians, suggesting an interplay of religious, regional, and ethnic influences.
On place utility and the normative allocation of intra-urban migrants
Authors: Brown Lawrence A. , Horton Frank E. , Wittick Robert I.
Published: March 2007

This paper arises out of the fact that place utility, a basic factor in behavioral conceptualizations of migration processes, has not been specified in operational terms. This is done here through a model that assigns intraurban migrants to destination areal units within the city, using a normative linear programming framework based on behavioral considerations. Measures of place utilities for each areal unit and of comparative place utilities for each pair-wise permutation of areal units are provided by the shadow prices of the dual of the linear programming model. The primal of the model allocates migrants so as to maximize the household’s gain from migration. This is measured by the increase in its realized aspirations with respect to a residence site, tempered by the search effort involved in acquiring the site. Implementation of the model utilizes both questionnaire and published data from Cedar Rapids, Iowa for the year 1966 to 1967. Conformity between predictions of the model and real-world characteristics is such that it is concluded that the basic form of the model is sound. It is also concluded that the posited relationships between place utility and behavior in searching for and selecting a new residential site are reasonable and can lead to valuable insights into place utility and its functioning in the intra-urban system. Due to some misallocation of migrant flows, however, we further conclude that the model should be revised into a recursive format for future use.
Patterns of residential segregation within a metropolitan ghetto
Authors: Edwards Ozzle L.
Published: March 2007

The residential segregation of families by income and by stage of the family life cycle within Milwaukee’s black community resembles in both pattern and degree that in the white community. The greater the difference in income, the more dissimilar are the distributions by census tract. Dissimilarity is greater between younger couples without children and older couples with children than between any other pair of family types defined by husband’s age and presence of children. However, segregation by income was substantially greater than by family type in 1960. The bases of selectivity of blacks in“changing” areas of the city, where the proportion black is still relatively low, and of whites in the“suburban” areas adjoining the city are similar. Families in the higher income groups and couples with children are over-represented in these areas. It would appear that given the pressures of limited housing space in the inner core of the black community, given the fact that certain amenities are not available in that area, and given the economic and social barriers which restrict the movement of blacks into the suburbs, the changing areas must function as“suburbs” for the black community.
Family planning and fertility in Tunisia
Authors: Lapham Robert J.
Published: March 2007

The crude birth rate for the Tunisian population in 1967–68 is estimated to be about ten percent lower than in 1961–65 although the rates are subject to a wide margin of error. Unless the birth registration system is becoming steadily worse or unless the Tunisian population has been decreasing in size, however, the birth rate has fallen; births registered in 1967 or in 1968 were fewer in number than births registered in 1964, 1965, or 1966. The downturn in the crude birth rate occurred shortly after an official national family planning program was inaugurated. Estimates of births averted by contraceptive use, however, suggest that only about one third of the decrease in the rate could be attributed to accomplishments of the program. Occurring at the same time were changes in the age structure which led to smaller numbers of women in the peak reproductive ages and changes in the social status of women which included a sharp reduction in the proportion married in the age group 15–19.
Demographic aspects of lactation and postpartum amenorrhea
Authors: Jain Anrudh K. , Hsu T. C. , Freedman Ronald , Chang M. C.
Published: March 2007

Interrelations between lactation and post-partum amenorrhea are studied from the reports of about 5,000 married women included in a 1966 Follow-up Survey of Acceptors of an Intrauterine Device (IUD) in Taiwan. The length of post-partum amenorrhea and of breastfeeding are positively associated. On an average, breastfeeding delayed the resumption of menstruation by about 7 months. The association between lactation and amenorrhea is not accounted for by differences in mother’s age, parity, education and her place of residence. A multiple regression analysis suggests that (1) age affects amenorrhea both directly and through lactation, (2) parity has no independent effect on either lactation or amenorrhea, and (3) education and place of residence affect amenorrhea mainly through the cultural variations in the practice of breastfeeding.
Constructing fertility tables for Soviet populations
Authors: Mazur D. Peter
Published: March 2007

Because the 1970 Soviet Union census does not provide information on the age structure of men and women separately by sex and according to their ethnic affiliation, the 1959 USSR census data serve as the basis to infer knowledge about ethnic fertility. The model takes into account (1) the total number of births in 1960, estimated from the child-woman ratio in 1959, (2) the age structure of women in 1959, and (3) the assumed pattern of age-specific birth rates structured in terms of the modal age at childbearing and the length of the fertility age span. The results show that Ukrainians among the Slav populations ranked as the lowest with 2.07 children born per woman. Their total fertility contrasts with that of Kazakhs native to Central Asia, who reportedly according to Soviet sources had 7.46 children per woman in 1958–1959, and whose estimated rate is around 8.59 children. Extreme variations appear in the estimates of fertility among nationalities of the Caucasus region, Volga Basin, and to a lesser degree in Siberia. Official Soviet calculations of crude birth rates and age-specific rates for 15 Union Republics in 1967–1968 are transcribed and compared with the estimates for nationalities in 1959–1960. The same theoretical model used to generate the Soviet rates may be adapted under different assumptions to non-Soviet populations in other situations where the data are scanty or incomplete.
Family sizes of children and family sizes of women
Authors: Preston Samuel H.
Published: March 2007

This paper demonstrates the relation that obtains between the average family size of women and the average family size of offspring of those women. It estimates the value of these two measures for cohorts of American women aged 45–49 in various years from 1890 to 1970. It shows that children born during the post-war baby boom actually derived from smaller families than those born during the low-fertility 1930’s; that under current patterns a woman would have to bear an average of almost two children fewer than were borne by her mother merely to keep population fertility rates constant from generation to generation; and that average family size for nonwhite children exceeds that for white by 50 percent, although the racial difference in family sizes of women is only 19 percent.
The fall in household size and the rise of the primary individual in the United States
Authors: Kobrin Frances E.
Published: March 2007

The long-term fall in household size in the United States is discussed within the framework of the aging of the population, continuing as the effects of fertility and mortality decline accumulate. Using distributions of households by size from U.S. census data 1790–1970 and a components of change analysis on primary individuals for 1950–1974, household changes are related to demographic change for the periods 1790–1900, 1900–1950, and 1950–1974. Fertility and mortality declines have unambiguous impact on household size until the increases in primary individuals begin. But these, too, have a theoretically interesting, if indirect relationship to population structure.
Interstate migrants in the United States: Some social-economic differences by type of move
Authors: Miller Ann R.
Published: March 2007

U.S. interstate migrants (over a five-year period) are separated into three groups: (a) those leaving state of birth; (b) those returning to state of birth; and (c) those outside state of birth at the beginning of the period and moving on to a third state by the end. Evidence is presented suggesting that the third group is particularly selective of persons with high social and economic status. The findings are linked to certain hypotheses about the changing role and function of migration in a highly developed country where the transition from a rural society based on agriculture has essentially been completed.
Cohort, age, and period effects upon the employment of white females: Evidence for 1957–1968
Authors: Farkas George
Published: March 2007

The net effects of birth cohort, age, and period upon the employment of white women, 1957–1968, are estimated by a regression analysis of data from the Social Security Administration’s continuous work history file. By conceptualizing period-specific effects as those associated with the business cycle, we avoid multicollinearity and succeed in performing an analysis faithful to the cohort concerns usual in fertility analysis and to the macroeconomic concerns usual in employment studies. The age pattern of employment and the pattern of intercohort employment change are examined in some detail. The long-run (cohort) trend of increasing white female employment is compared with the estimated (short-run) effects attributable to the business cycle, and it is found that, while both are significant, the former exerted a stronger effect in the 1957–1968 period.
A model for estimating adolescent sterility among married women
Authors: Pathak K. B. , Prasad C. V. S.
Published: March 2007

A model to estimate adolescent sterility among married women is presented using the principle of convex combination of two or more probability density functions.
Trends in nonprinted U.S. census and survey data and some research implications
Authors: Taeuber Cynthia Murray
Published: March 2007

I have raised a number of issues related to research using computerized data, which must be considered by supplying agencies, libraries, funding agencies, and researchers. Before the 1980 census data are released, researchers should suggest ways in which the data could be made easier and more useful to work with, and data supplying institutions should both respond to and take a lead in finding new approaches that will allow scientists to take full advantage of the opportunities provided by computerized data.
Ethnic Variations in the Relationship between Income and Fertility
Authors: Bean Frank D. , Wood Charles H.
Published: March 2007

The effects of husband’spotential andrelative incomes on completed fertility, as well as their effects on certain parity progression probabilities, are examined within samples of Anglos, Blacks and Mexican Americans. Relationships are estimated using data from the one-percent 1960 and 1970 U.S. Public Use Samples. The results reveal different patterns of relationship by ethnicity between the measures of income and the measures of fertility. The effects on completed fertility of the income measures are positive for Anglos and negative for Blacks, while in the case of Mexican Americans the effect ofpotential income is negative and that ofrelative income is positive. Income effects on the parity progression probabilities are similar in pattern to those from the analyses using completed fertility, although somewhat different patterns tend to appear at different birth orders, especially among Anglos.
The stable births resulting from a time dependent change between two net maternity functions
Authors: Cerone P. , Keane A.
Published: March 2007

The asymptotic birth rate for a one-sex population in which the net maternity function changes to one of bare replacement was first discussed by Keyfitz and has since been studied by several authors. The present generalization allows for a time dependent transition from any net maternity function to another and, thus, includes all previous models.
Recent urbanization trends in peninsular Malaysia
Authors: Hirschman Charles
Published: March 2007

The pace of urbanization in Peninsular Malaysia was slower in the most recent intercensal interval, 1957 to 1970, than in the previous period, 1947 to 1957, Most of the small change in the rural-urban balance from 1957 to 1970 appears due to the growth of towns into the urban classification rather than to a redistribution of population into the previous urban settlements. A number of towns in Peninsular Malaysia do show exceptional growth from 1957 to 1970, but there seems to be no clear relationship between a city’s size and its subsequent growth. The rural areas on the outskirts of the largest cities do show rapid growth, especially the periphery of the capital city. It appears that neither the classic model of urbanization based upon Western experience nor the over-urbanization thesis explain the urbanization process in Peninsular Malaysia.
Abortion and family building models: Fertility limitation in Hungary
Authors: Ford Kathleen
Published: March 2007

This paper demonstrates how family-building models can be used for checking the quality of abortion data. A family-building model, called FERMODA, is presented and used to check whether the available data on abortion for Hungary are consistent with Hungarian data on other aspects of family building. Model cohorts are generated, using in FERMODA the proportions of women married and the birth and abortion rates of two selected Hungarian cohorts. The estimates obtained from the simulated cohorts concerning use of contraception are compared with the information available on contraception, and, on the basis of this comparison, a judgment is made about the quality of abortion data for Hungary.