A Study to Predict the Success of Students in Plane Geometry in Worland High School, in Worland Wyoming
Authors:   , Kienlen Joseph 
Published: February 2023

The purpose of this report was to develop measurements that can be used for predicting success in Plane Geometry in the Worland High School. The specific purposes of this report were (1) to determine coefficients of correlation between Plane Geometry grades and Algebra I grades, between plane Geometry and Algebra II grades, between Plane Geometry grades and scores on the Orleans Geometry Prognosis Test, and between Plane Geometry grades and the scores on the Henmon-Nelson Test Mental Ability; and (2) to develop expectancy tables to predict the success of students in Plane Geometry. Since this is a report to predict the success of a student in Plane Geometry, it was limited to approximately one hundred students who had completed one full year of Plane Geometry. These students range from sophomores to seniors who had taken Plane Geometry sometime during the school years 1958-1961. The four predictive factors used in this report were (1) Algebra I grades, (2) Algebra II grades, (3) the Orleans Geometry Prognosis Test, and (4) the Henmon-Nelson Test of Mental Ability. The data collected for this report were taken from the students' permanent records which are on file in the principal’s office of Worland High School. Information obtained from these permanent records were the end of the year grades for Algebra I, Algebra II, Plane Geometry, and the Henmon-Nelson Test of Mental Ability scores. The scores for the Orleans Geometry Prognosis Test were obtained from the students' personal files in the guidance office. The data were grouped into correlation tables. The statistics obtained from each table were substituted into a correlation formula from which a single numerical value was computed for each correlation. The same data collected for the correlations were used in tabulating expectancy tables. These tables should be useful devices for predicting and interpreting the degree of success in geometry to the students. The correlations established from this report between geometry and other factors are as follows: 1. .78 between Plane Geometry grades and Algebra II grades. 2. .75 between Plane Geometry grades and Algebra I grades. 3. .59 between Plane Geometry grades and the Orleans Geometry Prognosis Test scores. 4. .47 between Plane Geometry grades and the Henmon-Nelson Test of Mental Ability scores. From the correlations computed, Algebra II was found to be the best single predictor. However, all students are not required to take Algebra II as a prerequisite for Plane Geometry. Since Algebra I is required for entrance into Plane Geometry and because of the insignificant difference in their correlations, grades from Algebra I would serve equally as well as a strong predictor. Expectancy tables were developed to give a graphic explanation of the predictions which may be made. One need only to direct his attention to the row of the table corresponding to the score a student receives in one of the predictive factors; the entries in that row show how likely the student is to attain any particular grade average. There is no absolute way of predicting a student's success in Plane Geometry. Current materials and modern methods in mathematics have created a need for further research to be done on prediction and a need to follow up these studies to help validate effective ways of predicting success in Plane Geometry.