bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
An observational and numerical study of a flash-flood event over south-eastern Italy
Authors: Miglietta M. M. , Regano A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A flash-flood episode affecting a small area in Apulia (south-eastern Italy) on 22 October 2005 is documented. A rainfall amount of 160 mm was recorded in a 6 h interval in the central part of the region, producing severe damage and causing six fatalities. Synoptic maps, observations from surface stations and remote-sensing data are used here to describe the evolution of the rainfall system. The vertical profiles show features similar to those observed in other orographic heavy-rain events, such as a low-level jet, a conditionally unstable environment, and a nearly saturated warm low-level air mass. The low hills in the centre of the region play an important role in the release of the instability and the localisation of the rainfall, providing the uplift necessary to the air parcels to reach the level of free convection. Numerical simulations are performed in order to understand the mechanisms responsible for the heavy rain event. The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is setup in a 2-way nesting configuration including two domains. The model is able to realistically simulate the evolution of the precipitation system and to capture fairly well the localisation, the amount and the timing of the rainfall. The simulations suggest the important synergy of low and upper-tropospheric features which act as the triggering mechanism for the development of convection. A sensitivity experiment confirms the importance of the orography for the development of convective cells.
Characteristics of rainfall during tropical cyclone periods in Taiwan
Authors: Cheung K. K. W. , Huang L.-R. , Lee C.-S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Due to the Central Mountain Range with an elevation up to about 4 km, the amount and distribution of rainfall in Taiwan associated with typhoons or tropical cyclones (TCs) depends not only on the distribution of convection within the TCs (internal structure) and influences from monsoon-scale environmental flow, but also on the orographic effect. This study analyzes the spatial and temporal characteristics of rainfall associated with 62 TC cases that affected Taiwan by using observations from the 371 automatic rain stations available in the period 1989–2002. It is found from the climatology maps that highly different rainfall distributions occurred for TCs that approached the Taiwan area from different directions. By performing objective clustering analysis of the rainfall time series of all the rain gauges, several characteristic temporal rainfall profiles are obtained. The geographic distribution of rain gauges that possess a particular temporal profile is also consistent with the possible TC track types that bring maximum rain to the Taiwan area at different times. Based on data in the 1989–2002 period, the development of a TC rainfall climatology-persistence (CLIPER) model is described. CLIPER is an optimized combination of climatology and persistence with different relative weighting for different forecast periods. Independent cases (other than the model development database) during 2003–2004 are used to validate the model. Objective measures like equitable threat score and bias score show that CLIPER's skill is acceptable for practical applications for 24-h rain threshold below 100 mm. However, the underestimation bias for more heavy rainfall is serious and CLIPER seems to have better performance for the northwestern Taiwan than for the other locations. Future directions for improvement of the CLIPER model are discussed.
Near-coast tsunami waveguiding: phenomenon and simulations
Authors: van Groesen E. , Adytia D. ,   Andonowati
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper we show that shallow, elongated parts in a sloping bottom toward the coast will act as a waveguide and lead to large enhanced wave amplification for tsunami waves. Since this is even the case for narrow shallow regions, near-coast tsunami waveguiding may contribute to an explanation that tsunami heights and coastal effects as observed in reality show such high variability along the coastline. For accurate simulations, the complicated flow near the waveguide has to be resolved accurately, and grids that are too coarse will greatly underestimate the effects. We will present some results of extensive simulations using shallow water and a linear dispersive Variational Boussinesq model.
The Papua New Guinea tsunami of 17 July 1998: anatomy of a catastrophic event
Authors: Tappin D. R. , Watts P. , Grilli S. T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Papua New Guinea (PNG) tsunami of July 1998 was a seminal event because it demonstrated that relatively small and relatively deepwater Submarine Mass Failures (SMFs) can cause devastating local tsunamis that strike without warning. There is a comprehensive data set that proves this event was caused by a submarine slump. Yet, the source of the tsunami has remained controversial. This controversy is attributed to several causes. Before the PNG event, it was questionable as to whether SMFs could cause devastating tsunamis. As a result, only limited modelling of SMFs as tsunami sources had been undertaken, and these excluded slumps. The results of these models were that SMFs in general were not considered to be a potential source of catastrophic tsunamis. To effectively model a SMF requires fairly detailed geological data, and these too had been lacking. In addition, qualitative data, such as evidence from survivors, tended to be disregarded in assessing alternative tsunami sources. The use of marine geological data to identify areas of recent submarine failure was not widely applied. The disastrous loss of life caused by the PNG tsunami resulted in a major investigation into the area offshore of the devastated coastline, with five marine expeditions taking place. This was the first time that a focussed, large-scale, international programme of marine surveying had taken place so soon after a major tsunami. It was also the first time that such a comprehensive data set became the basis for tsunami simulations. The use of marine mapping subsequently led to a larger involvement of marine geologists in the study of tsunamis, expanding the knowledge base of those studying the threat from SMF hazards. This paper provides an overview of the PNG tsunami and its impact on tsunami science. It presents revised interpretations of the slump architecture based on new seabed relief images and, using these, the most comprehensive tsunami simulation of the PNG event to date. Simulation results explain the measured runups to a high degree. The PNG tsunami has made a major impact on tsunami science. It is one of the most studied SMF tsunamis, yet it remains the only one known of its type: a slump.
Characterisation of the surface morphology of an alpine alluvial fan using airborne LiDAR
Authors: Cavalli M. , Marchi L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Alluvial fans of alpine torrents are both natural deposition areas for sediment discharged by floods and debris flows, and preferred sites for agriculture and settlements. Hazard assessment on alluvial fans depends on proper identification of flow processes and their potential intensity. This study used LiDAR data to examine the morphology of the alluvial fan of a small alpine stream (Moscardo Torrent, Eastern Italian Alps). A high-resolution DTM from LiDAR data was used to calculate a shaded relief map, plan curvature and an index of topographic roughness based on the standard deviation of elevation within a moving window. The surface complexity of the alluvial fan, also influenced by human activities, clearly arose from the analysis. The surface roughness, defined here as the local topography variability, is compared with a previous classification of the fan surface based on field surveys. The results demonstrate that topographic analysis of ground based LiDAR DTM can be a useful tool to objectively investigate fan morphology and hence alluvial fan hazard assessment.
CalMagNet – an array of search coil magnetometers monitoring ultra low frequency activity in California
Authors: Cutler J. , Bortnik J. , Dunson C. , Doering J. , Bleier T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The California Magnetometer Network (CalMagNet) consists of sixty-eight triaxial search-coil magnetometer systems measuring Ultra Low Frequency (ULF), 0.001–16 Hz, magnetic field fluctuations in California. CalMagNet provides data for comprehensive multi-point measurements of specific events in the Pc 1–Pc 5 range at mid-latitudes as well as a systematic, long-term study of ULF signals in active fault regions in California. Typical events include geomagnetic micropulsations and spectral resonant structures associated with the ionospheric Alfvén resonator. This paper provides a technical overview of the CalMagNet sensors and data processing systems. The network is composed of ten reference stations and fifty-eight local monitoring stations. The primary instruments at each site are three orthogonal induction coil magnetometers. A geophone monitors local site vibration. The systems are designed for future sensor expansion and include resources for monitoring four additional channels. Data is currently sampled at 32 samples per second with a 24-bit converter and time tagged with a GPS-based timing system. Several examples of representative magnetic fluctuations and signals as measured by the array are given.
Synoptic, thermodynamic and agroeconomic aspects of severe hail events in Cyprus
Authors: Michaelides S. C. , Savvidou K. , Nicolaides K. A. , Orphanou A. , Photiou G. , Kannaouros C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Hail is a hazardous weather element often accompanying a thunderstorm, as a result of either thermal instability or instability associated with baroclinic synoptic-scale systems (i.e. frontal depressions). Nevertheless, instability of any kind and thunderstorm activity does not always lead to the formation of hail of adequate size to reach the ground. The broader the knowledge concerning hail events the better the understanding of the underlying thermodynamic and dynamic mechanisms, as well as the physical processes associated with its formation. In the present study, the severe hail events that were recorded in Cyprus during the ten-year period from 1996 until 2005 were examined, first by grouping them into two clusters, namely, the "thermal instability cluster" and the "frontal depression cluster". Subsequently, the spatial and temporal evolution of the synoptic, dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of these hail events was studied in depth. Also, the impact of hailstorms on the local economy of the island is presented in terms of the compensations paid by the Agricultural Insurance Organization of the country.
Assessing lahars from ice-capped volcanoes using ASTER satellite data, the SRTM DTM and two different flow models: case study on Iztaccíhuatl (Central Mexico)
Authors: Schneider D. , Delgado Granados H. , Huggel C. , Kääb A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Lahars frequently affect the slopes of ice-capped volcanoes. They can be triggered by volcano-ice interactions during eruptions but also by processes such as intense precipitation or by outbursts of glacial water bodies not directly related to eruptive activity. We use remote sensing, GIS and lahar models in combination with ground observations for an initial lahar hazard assessment on Iztaccíhuatl volcano (5230 m a.s.l.), considering also possible future developments of the glaciers on the volcano. Observations of the glacial extent are important for estimations of future hazard scenarios, especially in a rapidly changing tropical glacial environment. In this study, analysis of the glaciers on Iztaccíhuatl shows a dramatic retreat during the last 150 years: the glaciated area in 2007 corresponds to only 4% of the one in 1850 AD and the glaciers are expected to survive no later than the year 2020. Most of the glacial retreat is considered to be related to climate change but in-situ observations suggest also that geo- and hydrothermal heat flow at the summit-crater area can not be ruled out, as emphasized by fumarolic activity documented in a former study. However, development of crater lakes and englacial water reservoirs are supposed to be a more realistic scenario for lahar generation than sudden ice melting by rigorous volcano-ice interaction. Model calculations show that possible outburst floods have to be larger than ~5×105 m3 or to achieve an H/L ratio (Height/runout Length) of 0.2 and lower in order to reach the populated lower flanks. This threshold volume equals 2.4% melted ice of Iztaccíhuatl's total ice volume in 2007, assuming 40% water and 60% volumetric debris content of a potential lahar. The model sensitivity analysis reveals important effects of the generic type of the Digital Terrain Model (DTM) used on the results. As a consequence, the predicted affected areas can vary significantly. For such hazard zonation, we therefore suggest the use of different types of DTMs and flow models, followed by a careful comparison and interpretation of the results.
Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria
Authors: Gruber M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.
Evidence of fractional-Brownian-motion-type asperity model for earthquake generation in candidate pre-seismic electromagnetic emissions
Authors: Eftaxias K. , Contoyiannis Y. , Balasis G. , Karamanos K. , Kopanas J. , Antonopoulos G. , Koulouras G. , Nomicos C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Many aspects of earthquake generation still escape our full understanding. Observations of electromagnetic emissions preceding significant earthquakes provide one of the few cases of premonitory events that are possibly related to a subsequent earthquake. Understanding the factors that control electromagnetic precursors generation seems to be important for determining how significant earthquakes nucleate. Here we report the results of a comprehensive study of the appearance of individual patterns in candidate electromagnetic precursors possibly indicating the breaking of backbone of large and strong asperities that sustain the activated fault. The search of precursory patterns is mainly based on well documented scaling properties of fault surface topology. More precisely, we argue that the candidate electromagnetic precursors might be originated during the slipping of two rough and rigid fractional-Brownian-motion-type profiles one over the other, with a roughness which is consistent with field and laboratory studies. The results also imply that the activation of a single earthquake (fault) is a reduced self-affine image of the whole regional seismicity and a magnified self-affine image of the laboratory seismicity.
Application of a probabilistic model of rainfall-induced shallow landslides to complex hollows
Authors: Talebi A. , Uijlenhoet R. , Troch P. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Recently, D'Odorico and Fagherazzi (2003) proposed "A probabilistic model of rainfall-triggered shallow landslides in hollows" (Water Resour. Res., 39, 2003). Their model describes the long-term evolution of colluvial deposits through a probabilistic soil mass balance at a point. Further building blocks of the model are: an infinite-slope stability analysis; a steady-state kinematic wave model (KW) of hollow groundwater hydrology; and a statistical model relating intensity, duration, and frequency of extreme precipitation. Here we extend the work of D'Odorico and Fagherazzi (2003) by incorporating a more realistic description of hollow hydrology (hillslope storage Boussinesq model, HSB) such that this model can also be applied to more gentle slopes and hollows with different plan shapes. We show that results obtained using the KW and HSB models are significantly different as in the KW model the diffusion term is ignored. We generalize our results by examining the stability of several hollow types with different plan shapes (different convergence degree). For each hollow type, the minimum value of the landslide-triggering saturated depth corresponding to the triggering precipitation (critical recharge rate) is computed for steep and gentle hollows. Long term analysis of shallow landslides by the presented model illustrates that all hollows show a quite different behavior from the stability view point. In hollows with more convergence, landslide occurrence is limited by the supply of deposits (supply limited regime) or rainfall events (event limited regime) while hollows with low convergence degree are unconditionally stable regardless of the soil thickness or rainfall intensity. Overall, our results show that in addition to the effect of slope angle, plan shape (convergence degree) also controls the subsurface flow and this process affects the probability distribution of landslide occurrence in different hollows. Finally, we conclude that incorporating a more realistic description of hollow hydrology (instead of the KW model) in landslide probability models is necessary, especially for hollows with high convergence degree which are more susceptible to landsliding.
Ground deformation detection of the greater area of Thessaloniki (Northern Greece) using radar interferometry techniques
Authors: Raucoules D. , Parcharidis I. , Feurer D. , Novalli F. , Ferretti A. , Carnec C. , Lagios E. , Sakkas V. , Le Mouelic S. , Cooksley G. , Hosford S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the present study SAR interferometric techniques (stacking of conventional interferograms and Permanent Scatterers), using images from satellites ERS-1 and 2, have been applied to the region of Thessaloniki (northern Greece). The period covered by the images is 1992–2000. Both techniques gave good quantitative and qualitative results. The interferometric products were used to study ground surface deformation phenomena that could be related to the local tectonic context, the exploitation of underground water and sediments compaction. The city of Thessaloniki shows relatively stable ground conditions. Subsidence in four locations, mainly in the area surrounding the city of Thessaloniki, has been detected and assessed. Two of the sites (Sindos-Kalochori and Langadhas) were already known from previous studies as subsiding areas, using ground base measurements. On the contrary the other two sites in the northern suburbs of Thessaloniki (Oreokastro) and in the south-east (airport area) were unknown as areas of subsidence. A further investigation based on fieldwork is needed in these two areas. Finally, an attempt to interpret the observed deformation, according to the geological regime of the area and its anthropogenic activities, has been carried out.
Storm damage in the Black Forest caused by the winter storm "Lothar" – Part 1: Airborne damage assessment
Authors: Schmoeckel J. , Kottmeier C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. An airborne survey of the Black Forest as affected by the winter storm "Lothar" in 1999 is performed by means of a color line scanner (CLS) with a CCD sensor, whose data in a visible and a near-infrared channel provide the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) as a measure of the damage in previously intact forest areas. The camera data, height data from a digital evelation model (DEM), land use information, and soil data are georeferenced and processed in a geographic information system (GIS) to derive relationship of the damage pattern to the characteristics of the local orography and soil types. The data cover an area of 4900 km2, 2767 km2 of which were forested. The 363 detected storm damage areas with a minimum detection size of 1.5 ha amount to 0.8% of the total forest area. Visual inspections at certain sites prove that none of the larger damage areas are missed, but areas smaller than 1.5 ha cause the total damage area to be up to twice our result, i.e. ≈1.6% of the forest area. More than 50% of the detected damaged areas are smaller than 5 ha and most of them have a size ranging from 1.5 to 3.5 ha. Forests on slopes with an inclination angle between 10 and 15 degrees show the highest fraction of damaged forest, doubling those on plains and below 5 degrees inclination angle. Forests on northwestern slopes are more affected than those on southwestern and western slopes, which faced the wind during highest wind speed occurrence. In contrast to other studies, this paper shows, that in steep areas, lee slopes are more damaged than the luv slopes. As expected, wet to moist soils represent an unstable location for the trees. But also medium-dry to dry locations that were considered to be relatively stable exhibited a highly damaged forest fraction. This can be attributed to mostly saturated soil from previous rain.
Local protection against mountain hazards – state of the art and future needs
Authors: Holub M. , Hübl J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. During the last decades, settlement activities increased in European mountain regions. Due to the scarceness of areas suitable for development, residential estates were extended into areas endangered by natural hazards such as mass movements. These settlements generally show a considerable vulnerability to tangible assets. Integral risk management strategies to reduce the vulnerability to tangible assets are presented for the assessment of such endangered areas. Conventional mitigation and local structural measures are discussed with respect to the necessary delimitation of endangered areas, the preparedness of people and possible financial prevention. According to different natural hazard processes (flash floods with and without bedload transport, debris flows, land slides, rock falls and avalanches) and various structural elements of buildings, a catalogue of local structural measures is presented with respect to occurring process impacts and protection objectives. Thereby, different local structural measures are classified and recommended according to a possible implementation for newly-erected buildings and for upgrading existing buildings, respectively. Based on these recommendations, future needs for a sustainable and comprehensive reduction of risk in settlement areas endangered by mass movements are outlined. Above all, this includes a prescription of building codes and the re-introduction of an obligatory final inspection of buildings.
Spatial and temporal variations of Norwegian geohazards in a changing climate, the GeoExtreme Project
Authors: Jaedicke C. , Solheim A. , Blikra L. H. , Stalsberg K. , Sorteberg A. , Aaheim A. , Kronholm K. , Vikhamar-Schuler D. , Isaksen K. , Sletten K. , Kristensen K. , Barstad I. , Melchiorre C. , Høydal Ø. A. , Mestl H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Various types of slope processes, mainly landslides and avalanches (snow, rock, clay and debris) pose together with floods the main geohazards in Norway. Landslides and avalanches have caused more than 2000 casualties and considerable damage to infrastructure over the last 150 years. The interdisciplinary research project "GeoExtreme" focuses on investigating the coupling between meteorological factors and landslides and avalanches, extrapolating this into the near future with a changing climate and estimating the socioeconomic implications. The main objective of the project is to predict future geohazard changes in a changing climate. A database consisting of more than 20 000 recorded historical events have been coupled with a meteorological database to assess the predictability of landslides and avalanches caused by meteorological conditions. Present day climate and near future climate scenarios are modelled with a global climate model on a stretched grid, focusing on extreme weather events in Norway. The effects of climate change on landslides and avalanche activity are studied in four selected areas covering the most important climatic regions in Norway. The statistical analysis of historical landslide and avalanche events versus weather observations shows strong regional differences in the country. Avalanches show the best correlation with weather events while landslides and rockfalls are less correlated. The new climate modelling approach applying spectral nudging to achieve a regional downscaling for Norway proves to reproduce extreme events of precipitation much better than conventional modelling approaches. Detailed studies of slope stabilities in one of the selected study area show a high sensitivity of slope stability in a changed precipitation regime. The value of elements at risk was estimated in one study area using a GIS based approach that includes an estimation of the values within given present state hazard zones. The ongoing project will apply the future climate scenarios to predict the changes in geohazard levels, as well as an evaluation of the resulting socioeconomic effects on the Norwegian society in the coming 50 years.
29 October 2007, Çameli earthquake and structural damages at unreinforced masonry buildings
Authors: Kaplan H. , Yilmaz S. , Akyol E. , Sen G. , Tama Y. S. , Cetinkaya N. , Nohutcu H. , Binici H. , Atimtay E. , Sarisin A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A recent earthquake of M=4.9 occurred on 29 October 2007 in Çameli, Denizli, which is located in a seismically active region at southwest Anatolia, Turkey. It has caused extensive damages at unreinforced masonry buildings like many other cases observed in Turkey during other previous earthquakes. Most of the damaged structures were non-engineered, seismically deficient, unreinforced masonry buildings. This paper presents a site survey of these damaged buildings. In addition to typical masonry damages, some infrequent, event-specific damages were also observed. Reasons for the relatively wide spread damages considering the magnitude of the event are discussed in the paper.
Statistical approach to storm event-induced landslides susceptibility
Authors: Lee C.-T. , Huang C.-C. , Lee J.-F. , Pan K. -L. , Lin M.-L. , Dong J.-J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. For the interpretation of the storm event-induced landslide distribution for an area, deterministic methods are frequently used, while a region's landslide susceptibility is commonly predicted via a statistical approach based upon multi-temporal landslide inventories and environmental factors. In this study we try to use an event-based landslide inventory, a set of environmental variables and a triggering factor to build a susceptibility model for a region which is solved using a multivariate statistical method. Data for shallow landslides triggered by the 2002 typhoon, Toraji, in central western Taiwan, are selected for training the susceptibility model. The maximum rainfall intensity of the storm event is found to be an effective triggering factor affecting the landslide distribution and this is used in the model. The model is built for the Kuohsing region and validated using data from the neighboring Tungshih area and a subsequent storm event – the 2004 typhoon, Mindulle, which affected both the Kuohsing and the Tungshih areas. The results show that we can accurately interpret the landslide distribution in the study area and predict the occurrence of landslides in the neighboring region in a subsequent typhoon event. The advantage of this statistical method is that neither hydrological data, strength data, failure depth, nor a long-period landslide inventory is needed as input.
Assessing potential debris flow runout: a comparison of two simulation models
Authors: Pirulli M. , Sorbino G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the present paper some of the problems related to the application of the continuum mechanics modelling to debris flow runout simulation are discussed. Particularly, a procedure is proposed to face the uncertainties in the choice of a numerical code and in the setting of rheological parameter values that arise when the prediction of a debris flow propagation is required. In this frame, the two codes RASH3D and FLO2D are used to numerically analyse the propagation of potential debris flows affecting two study sites in Southern Italy. For these two study sites, a lack in information prevents that the rheological parameters can be obtained from the back analysis of similar well documented debris flow events in the area. As a prediction of the possible runout area is however required by decision makers, an alternative approach based on the analysis of the alluvial fans existing at the toe of the two studied basins is proposed to calibrate rheological parameters on the safe side. From the comparison of the results obtained with RASH3D (where a Voellmy and a Quadratic rheologies are implemented) and FLO2D (where a Quadratic rheology is implemented) it emerges that, for the two examined cases, numerical analyses carried out with RASH3D assuming a Voellmy rheology can be considered on the safe side respect to those carried out with a Quadratic rheology.
Risk assessment of atmospheric emissions using machine learning
Authors: Cervone G. , Franzese P. , Ezber Y. , Boybeyi Z.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms are used to perform statistical and logical analysis of several transport and dispersion model runs which simulate emissions from a fixed source under different atmospheric conditions. First, a clustering algorithm is used to automatically group the results of different transport and dispersion simulations according to specific cloud characteristics. Then, a symbolic classification algorithm is employed to find complex non-linear relationships between the meteorological input conditions and each cluster of clouds. The patterns discovered are provided in the form of probabilistic measures of contamination, thus suitable for result interpretation and dissemination. The learned patterns can be used for quick assessment of the areas at risk and of the fate of potentially hazardous contaminants released in the atmosphere.
Significance of "high probability/low damage" versus "low probability/high damage" flood events
Authors: Merz B. , Elmer F. , Thieken A. H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The need for an efficient use of limited resources fosters the application of risk-oriented design in flood mitigation. Flood defence measures reduce future damage. Traditionally, this benefit is quantified via the expected annual damage. We analyse the contribution of "high probability/low damage" floods versus the contribution of "low probability/high damage" events to the expected annual damage. For three case studies, i.e. actual flood situations in flood-prone communities in Germany, it is shown that the expected annual damage is dominated by "high probability/low damage" events. Extreme events play a minor role, even though they cause high damage. Using typical values for flood frequency behaviour, flood plain morphology, distribution of assets and vulnerability, it is shown that this also holds for the general case of river floods in Germany. This result is compared to the significance of extreme events in the public perception. "Low probability/high damage" events are more important in the societal view than it is expressed by the expected annual damage. We conclude that the expected annual damage should be used with care since it is not in agreement with societal priorities. Further, risk aversion functions that penalise events with disastrous consequences are introduced in the appraisal of risk mitigation options. It is shown that risk aversion may have substantial implications for decision-making. Different flood mitigation decisions are probable, when risk aversion is taken into account.
Considerations on Swiss methodologies for rock fall hazard mapping based on trajectory modelling
Authors: Abbruzzese J. M. , Sauthier C. , Labiouse V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Rock fall hazard assessment and hazard mapping are essential for the risk management of vulnerable areas. This paper analyses some issues concerning fragmental rock fall hazard mapping methodologies. Two Swiss approaches based on rock fall trajectory simulations results are presented. An application to a site in Switzerland emphasises the differences in the results, uncertainties related to hazard zoning procedures and the influence of some factors on the mapping process. In particular, the influence of a change in the temporal rock fall frequency, of the longer propagation along the slope of only a few computed blocks (defined in this sense as "extreme blocks") and of the number of runs performed in trajectory modelling have been studied. Results are discussed with the purpose of achieving a more reliable and objective hazard analysis. The presented considerations are based on the Swiss Federal Guidelines, but many of them could be extended to other countries that evaluate rock fall hazard using an intensity-frequency diagram.
Further study on the role of atmospheric gravity waves on the seismo-ionospheric perturbations as detected by subionospheric VLF/LF propagation
Authors: Muto F. , Kasahara Y. , Hobara Y. , Hayakawa M. , Rozhnoi A. , Solovieva M. , Molchanov O. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. As the target earthquake we have taken a huge earthquake (EQ) named Miyagi-oki earthquake on 16 August 2005 (with magnitude of 7.2) and we have analyzed the 4 month period including the date of this EQ. In addition to our previous analysis on the nighttime average amplitude (trend) and nighttime fluctuation, we have proposed the use of fluctuation power spectra in the frequency rage of atmospheric gravity waves (period=10 min to 100 min) as a third parameter of subionospheric VLF/LF propagation characteristics. Then it is found that this third parameter would be of additional importance in confirming the presence of seismo-ionospheric perturbations. Finally, we have discovered an important role of lunar tidal effect in the VLF/LF data, which appears one and two months before this large EQ.
An analysis of the evolution of hydrometeorological extremes in newspapers: the case of Catalonia, 1982–2006
Authors: Llasat M. C. , Llasat-Botija M. , Barnolas M. , López L. , Altava-Ortiz V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This contribution analyzes the evolution of perception of certain natural hazards over the past 25 years in a Mediterranean region. Articles from newspapers have been used as indicator. To this end a specific Spanish journal has been considered and an ACCESS database has been created with the summarized information from each news item. The database includes data such as the location of each specific article in the newspaper, its length, the number of pictures and figures, the headlines and a summary of the published information, including all the instrumental data. The study focused on hydrometeorological extremes, mainly floods and droughts, in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula. The number of headlines per event, trends and other data have been analyzed and compared with "measured" information, in order to identify any bias that could lead to an erroneous perception of the phenomenon. The SPI index (a drought index based on standardized accumulated precipitation) has been calculated for the entire region, and has been used for the drought analysis, while a geodatabase implemented on a GIS built for all the floods recorded in Catalonia since 1900 (INUNGAMA) has been used to analyze flood evolution. Results from a questionnaire about the impact of natural hazards in two specific places have been also used to discuss the various perceptions between rural and urban settings. Results show a better correlation between the news about drought or water scarcity and SPI than between news on floods in Catalonia and the INUNGAMA database. A positive trend has been found for non-catastrophic floods, which is explained by decrease of the perception thresholds, the increase of population density in the most flood-prone areas and changes in land use.
The severe thunderstorm of 4 October 2007 in Mallorca: an observational study
Authors: Ramis C. , Romero R. , Homar V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. During the afternoon of 4 October 2007, a thunderstorm swept across the Island of Mallorca from southwest to northeast. Strong straight-line winds (up to 30 m/s) and heavy rain (rates up to 100 mm/h) were registered accompanying the storm. Tornadoes with an estimated intensity of F2–F3 developed nearby the city of Palma, severely affecting industrial installations. One person was killed by the impact of heavy debris while more than 10 million € in damages were attributed to the event in the industrial area only. The observed evolution of temperature, humidity, wind and pressure, as well as the sequence of radar images, reveal that a squall line was initially organized over the sea and then moved north-eastwards at an estimated speed of around 80 km/h. This paper presents an analysis of the event from an observational point of view. The aim of the study is to contribute to the characterization of these rare events in the Western Mediterranean by analyzing the observational information available for this particular extreme event. The diagnosis is aimed at helping forecasters to identify this kind of organized deep convective events and being able to issue timely warnings. The synoptic scenario shows warm and moist advection at low levels over Balearics and an upper-level trough over mainland Spain. This situation is known to be prone to deep convection in Mediterranean Spain in autumn. Radiosonde ascents from Murcia and Palma show convective instability at mid levels that can conduce to develop convection if appropriate ascents occur. A plausible lifting mechanism to trigger convection is attributed to large amplitude gravity waves, registered as short-period pressure oscillations by surface barographs.
Verification of operational weather forecasts from the POSEIDON system across the Eastern Mediterranean
Authors: Papadopoulos A. , Katsafados P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The POSEIDON weather forecasting system became operational at the Hellenic Centre for Marine Research (HCMR) in October 1999. The system with its nesting capability provided 72-h forecasts in two different model domains, i.e. 25- and 10-km grid spacing. The lower-resolution domain covered an extended area that included most of Europe, Mediterranean Sea and N. Africa, while the higher resolution domain focused on the Eastern Mediterranean. A major upgrade of the system was recently implemented in the framework of the POSEIDON-II project (2005–2008). The aim was to enhance the forecasting skill of the system through improved model parameterization schemes and advanced numerical techniques for assimilating available observations to produce high resolution analysis fields. The configuration of the new system is applied on a horizontal resolution of 1/20°×1/20° (~5 km) covering the Mediterranean basin, Black Sea and part of North Atlantic providing up to 5-day forecasts. This paper reviews and compares the current with the previous weather forecasting systems at HCMR presenting quantitative verification statistics from the pre-operational period (from mid-November 2007 to October 2008). The statistics are based on verification against surface observations from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) network across the Eastern Mediterranean region. The results indicate that the use of the new system can significantly improve the weather forecasts.
Risk-based stabilization planning for soil cut slopes
Authors: Li D. , Zhang L. , Zhou C. , Lu W.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Risk-based slope stabilization planning integrates the failure probability and the failure consequence systematically and shows promise for use in the practice. This paper attempts to develop a risk-based methodology for stabilization planning for deteriorating soil cut slopes. First, a framework of risk-based stabilization planning for slopes is proposed. Then the time-dependent reliability of deteriorating slopes is analyzed based on observed performance. Thereafter, the slope failure consequence is assessed in terms of expected numbers of fatality. After obtaining the time-dependent risk of slope failure, the time for slope stabilization is determined according to selected risk criteria. Finally, the effect of slope maintenance on the reliability of slopes is evaluated. Based on the analyses, the annual probability of failure of soil cut slopes would increase exponentially in the early stage of service if no maintenance were implemented. As a slope deteriorates, the risk of slope failure increases with time and may reach an intolerable level at a certain time. The risk of slope failure may also reach an intolerable level due to a change of elements at risk. The derived stabilization time depends on the factors that cause the slopes to deteriorate, consequence of slope failure, selected risk criteria, and vulnerability of the affected population.
Ionosperic anomaly due to seismic activities – Part 1: Calibration of the VLF signal of VTX 18.2 KHz station from Kolkata and deviation during seismic events
Authors: Sasmal S. , Chakrabarti S. K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. VLF signals are long thought to give away important information about the lithosphere-ionosphere coupling. In order to establish co-relations, if any, between the ionospheric activities and the earthquakes, we need to understand what the reference signals are, throughout the year. The best opportunity to do this is during the period of solar minimum where the number of flares and sunspots are negligible and the data would be primarily affected by the sun and variation would be due to normal sunset and sunrise effects. In this paper, we present the result of the sunrise and sunset terminators as a function of the day of the year for a period of four years, viz, 2005–2008 when the solar activity was very low. The terminators are for the 18.2 KHz VTX signal of the Indian Navy as observed from Indian Centre for Space Physics receiving station located in Kolkata. A total of 624 days of data have been used to obtain the mean plot. Any deviation of observations from this so-called the standardized calibration curve would point to influences by terrestrial (such as earthquakes) and extra-terrestrial events (such as solar activities). We present examples of deviations which occur in a period of 16 months and show that the correlation with seismic events is significant and typically the highest deviation takes place up to a couple of days prior to the seismic event. Simultaneous observations of such deviations from more than one station could improve the predictability of earthquakes.
Changes in the flood hazard in Germany through changing frequency and persistence of circulation patterns
Authors: Petrow T. , Zimmer J. , Merz B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The link between trends in circulation patterns and trends in the flood magnitude is studied for 122 meso-scale catchments in Germany for a period of 52 years (1951–2002). Flood trends, significant at the 10% level, are detected for a large number of catchments. The catchments are pooled into three regions, based on flood seasonality and flood trends. Field-significant increasing trends are found for winter in Regions West and East. For summer, increasing and decreasing flood trends are detected for Regions South and East, respectively. The temporal behaviour of three flood indicators of each region is compared to atmospheric indicators derived from circulation patterns. Significantly increasing frequency and persistence of flood-prone circulation patterns intensify the flood hazard during the winter season throughout Germany. Moreover, a trend towards a reduced diversity of circulation patterns is found causing fewer patterns with longer persistence to dominate the weather over Europe. This indicates changes in the dynamics of atmospheric circulations which directly influence the flood hazard. Longer persistence of circulation patterns which in general do not favour large precipitation amounts may lead to large runoff coefficients due to soil-moistening and hence cause floods.
The effect of earth tides as observed in seismo-electromagnetic precursory signals
Authors: Hayakawa M. , Sue Y. , Nakamura T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Studies on the effect of earth tides in triggering earthquakes (EQs) had a great progress in recent years, which has provided convincing evidence of earth tides in EQ triggering. On the other hand, there have been accumulated a lot of evidences on the presence of seismogenic electromagnetic effects (such as ULF electromagnetic emissions from the lithosphere, ionospheric perturbations as detected by subionospheric VLF/LF propagation, etc.). Since the initial agent of these seismogenic electromagnetic effects is obviously due to some mechanical action around the EQ focal zone, the tidal effect as seen in EQ sequence should appear also in seismo-electromagnetic phenomena. Based on this expectation we have studied the tidal effect in different seismogenic phenomena, and have found that lithospheric ULF emissions exhibit a clear maximum-minimum-maximum pattern synchronized with the lunar phase of the EQ during several months before the EQ. As for VLF/LF propagation anomaly representing the lower ionospheric perturbation, we have found the tidal modulation very similar to ULF emissions, but less clear, and also there are some differences from the ULF case (such as occasional shift with respect to the lunar phase and/or the presence of higher frequency modulation, etc.). These findings are indicative that those electromagnetic phenomena reported to be in possible association with an EQ are really related with any preparatory phase of an EQ. This kind of study would be a bridge between the seismology and our seismo-electromagnetic study.
Brief communication "Analysis of deformations in historic urban areas using terrestrial laser scanning"
Authors: Gigli G. , Mugnai F. , Leoni L. , Casagli N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) technique has been used to accurately reconstruct the 3-D shape of the walls and bastions of the historic city of Mdina (Malta) and underlying terrain. By applying this technique it has also been possible to extract additional quantitative information regarding weathering and deformational processes affecting the structures. Thus, with the aim of identifying the main instability mechanisms, a detailed 3-D crack distribution map has been drawn and the main displacement vectors have been defined.