bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Investigation of ULF magnetic pulsations, air conductivity changes, and infra red signatures associated with the 30 October Alum Rock M5.4 earthquake
Authors: Bleier T. , Dunson C. , Maniscalco M. , Bryant N. , Bambery R. , Freund F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Several electromagnetic signal types were observed prior to and immediately after 30 October 2007 (Local Time) M5.4 earthquake at Alum Rock, Ca with an epicenter ~15 km NE of San Jose Ca. The area where this event occurred had been monitored since November 2005 by a QuakeFinder magnetometer site, unit 609, 2 km from the epicenter. This instrument is one of 53 stations of the QuakeFinder (QF) California Magnetometer Network-CalMagNet. This station included an ultra low frequency (ULF) 3-axis induction magnetometer, a simple air conductivity sensor to measure relative airborne ion concentrations, and a geophone to identify the arrival of the P-wave from an earthquake. Similar in frequency content to the increased ULF activity reported two weeks prior to the Loma Prieta M7.0 quake in 1989 (Fraser-Smith, 1990, 1991), the QF station detected activity in the 0.01–12 Hz bands, but it consisted of an increasing number of short duration (1 to 30 s duration) pulsations. The pulsations peaked around 13 days prior to the event. The amplitudes of the pulses were strong, (3–20 nT), compared to the average ambient noise at the site, (10–250 pT), which included a component arising from the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) operations. The QF station also detected different pulse shapes, e.g. negative or positive only polarity, with some pulses including a combination of positive and negative. Typical pulse counts over the previous year ranged from 0–15 per day, while the count rose to 176 (east-west channel) on 17 October, 13 days prior to the quake. The air conductivity sensor saturated for over 14 h during the night and morning prior to the quake, which occurred at 20:29 LT. Anomalous IR signatures were also observed in the general area, within 50 km of the epicenter, during the 2 weeks prior to the quake. These three simultaneous EM phenomena were compared with data collected over a 1–2-year period at the site. The data was also compared against accounts of air ionization reported to be associated with radon emission from the ground (Ouzounov, 2007), and a series of laboratory rock stressing experiments (Freund, 2006, 2007a, b, c) to determine if field data was consistent either of these accounts. We could not find a data set with pre-earthquake radon measurements taken near the Alum Rock epicenter to compare against our field data. However, based on the Alum Rock data set example and another data set at Parkfield, the field tests are at least consistent with the lab experiments showing currents, magnetic field disturbances, air conductivity changes, and IR signatures. This is encouraging, but more instrumented earthquake examples are needed to prove a repeating pattern for these types of pre-earthquake EM signatures. For more information on QuakeFinder please view http://www.quakefinder.com.
Meteorological environment of a tornado outbreak in Southern Romania
Authors: Oprea I. C. , Bell A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. On 7 May 2005, a squall line with an embedded bow echo formed over Southern Romania causing severe wind damage. The length of the wind damage was around 150 km. Three tornadoes have been reported, two of them being recorded by video camera. One of the tornadoes occurred in Buftea (near Bucharest), the second in Ciobanu village (near Medgidia radar site) and the third in Movilita village, 40 km to the northeast of Bucharest. The site surveys confirmed wind damage associated with these tornadoes. Based on damage, the Movilita village tornado was classified as an F1 type on the Fujita scale, and the Buftea and Ciobanu village tornadoes were classified as F0. Large scale forcing was provided by a vigorous upper level trough. The squall line developed in the warm sector of a low, ahead of the cold front. The Bucharest EEC-DWSR-2500C Doppler velocity depicted cyclonically rotational structures associated with the left end of the bow echo. In two hours this squall line traversed the southern part of the country. The northern end of the line preserved the bowed structures and high reflectivity gradient in front of them. The dry air associated with the descending rear inflow jet was evident as rear inflow notches in the reflectivity field of the Bucharest C-band radar and the Medgidia S-band WSR-98 D radar. The synoptic and mesoscale environment associated with 7 May 2005 bow echo had many similarities to the "dynamic" pattern described by John and Hirt (1987). Herein are analyzed the combined effects of synoptic and mesoscale circulations, together with the data provided by C-band EEC-DWSR-2500C and S-band WSR-98D radars, and the ECMWF and ALADIN model output data. Some operational aspects of the warning process are also discussed.
The effect of groundwater fluctuations on the velocity pattern of slow-moving landslides
Authors: van Asch Th. W. J. , Malet J.-P. , Bogaard T. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Slow-moving landslides show complex mechanical and fluid interactions. They show among others non linear intrinsic viscosity of the shear zone, undrained loading effects and the generation of excess pore water pressure. The parameterization of hydrological and geomechanical factors by field and laboratory tests to describe the movement pattern of these landslides is difficult. It is a challenge to simulate accurately the de- and acceleration of these landslides and particularly, to forecast catastrophic surges. In this paper the relation between groundwater fluctuation and landslide velocity for two deep-seated landslides of the Trièves Plateau (the Monestier-du-Percy landslide and the Saint-Guillaume landslide) is analysed. Inclinometer measurements, showing the displacement in depth after 1–2 months periods, showed on both landslides shear band deformation within 1 m. At the Monestier-du-Percy landslide, depending on the position, the shear band depths vary between 25.0 m and 10.0 m. At the Saint-Guillaume landslide, the inclinometers detected several slip surfaces inside the clays, at respectively 37.0 m, 34.5 m, and 14.0 m depth. Two simple geomechanical models are developed to describe these displacements in depth in relation to measured groundwater fluctuations. Calibration of the models using the friction angle delivered no constant values for different measuring periods. It appeared that calibrated (apparent) friction values increase with increasing groundwater levels. The paper discusses the possibility of the generation of negative excess pore water pressures as a feed back mechanism, which may explain the complex displacement pattern of these landslides developed in varved clays.
Geomorphological hazard analysis along the Egyptian Red Sea coast between Safaga and Quseir
Authors: Youssef A. M. , Pradhan B. , Gaber A. F. D. , Buchroithner M. F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Geomophological hazard assessment is an important component of natural hazard risk assessment. This paper presents GIS-based geomorphological hazard mapping in the Red Sea area between Safaga and Quseir, Egypt. This includes the integration of published geological, geomorphological, and other data into GIS, and generation of new map products, combining governmental concerns and legal restrictions. Detailed geomorphological hazard maps for flooding zones and earth movement potential, especially along the roads and railways, have been prepared. Further the paper illustrates the application of vulnerability maps dealing with the effect of hazard on urban areas, tourist villages, industrial facilities, quarries, and road networks. These maps can help to initiate appropriate measures to mitigate the probable hazards in the area.
Rainfall observation from X-band, space-borne, synthetic aperture radar
Authors: Weinman J. A. , Marzano F. S. , Plant W. J. , Mugnai A. , Pierdicca N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Satellites carrying X-band Synthetic Aperture Radars (SAR) have recently been launched by several countries. These provide new opportunities to measure precipitation with higher spatial resolution than has heretofore been possible. Two algorithms to retrieve precipitation from such measurements over land have been developed, and the retrieved rainfall distributions were found to be consistent. A maritime rainfall distribution obtained from dual frequency (X and C-band) data was used to compute the Differential Polarized Phase Shift. The computed Differential Polarized Phase Shift compared well with the value measured from space. Finally, we show a comparison between a recent X-band SAR image of a precipitation distribution and an observation of the same rainfall from ground-based operational weather radar. Although no quantitative comparison of retrieved and conventional rainfall distributions could be made with the available data at this time, the results presented here point the way to such comparisons.
Incorporating river morphological changes to flood risk assessment: uncertainties, methodology and application
Authors: Neuhold C. , Stanzel P. , Nachtnebel H. P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Risk zonation maps are mostly derived from design floods which propagate through the study area. The respective delineation of inundated flood plains is a fundamental input for the flood risk assessment of exposed objects. It is implicitly assumed that the river morphology will not vary, even though it is obvious that the river bed elevation can quickly and drastically change during flood events. The objectives of this study were to integrate the river bed dynamics into the flood risk assessment procedure and to quantify associated uncertainties. The proposed concept was applied to the River Ill in the Western Austrian Alps. In total, 138 flood and associated sediment transport scenarios were considered, simulated and illustrated for the main river stem. The calculated morphological changes of the river bed at the moment of peak flow provided a basis to estimate the variability of possible water surface levels and inundation lines which should be incorporated into flood hazard assessment. In the context of vulnerability assessment an advanced methodological approach to assess flood risk based on damage probability functions is described.
Temporal dependence of the selectivity property of SES stations in western Greece
Authors: Dologlou E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The selectivity property of the SES stations, IOA, PIR and PAT in western Greece, based on reported precursory SES signals and associated large earthquakes (Mw≥5.4) that occurred from 1983 to the end of 2008, has been examined. Interesting temporal dependence of the sensitive ability of these stations has been unveiled. Physical mechanisms for the observed changes in selectivity might be related with tectonic and geodynamic events. For instance, selectivity for IOA exhibits a time dependence, for PAT probably is related to the activation of Wadati-Benioff zone while for PIR seems to be related to the specific tectonics of two confined areas such as the Cephalonia Transform Faulting zone in Ionian Sea and the southwestern part of the Hellenic Trench.
Toward an estimation of the relationship between cyclonic structures and damages at the ground in Europe
Authors: Porcu F. , Carrassi A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Cyclonic systems dominate European and Mediterranean meteorology throughout the year and often induce severe weather in terms of heavy and/or long-lasting precipitation with related phenomena such as strong winds and lightning. Surface cyclonic structures are often related to well defined precipitation patterns with different scales, duration and intensity. Cyclones confined in the upper troposphere, usually referred to as cut off low, may induce instability at lower levels and the development of convective precipitation. In this work the occurrence of cyclonic events (discriminated between surface ones and cut-off lows) is analyzed and matched with an economic losses database to highlight a relation between the atmospheric structures and the impact on the social environment in terms of casualties and material damages. The study focus on the continental Europe and, based on the ERA-40 reanalysis, two databases of surface cyclones and cut-off lows have been constructed by means of automatic pattern recognition algorithms. The impact on the local communities is estimated from an insurance company record, which provides the location, date and type of the events, as well as related losses in terms of damages and casualties. Results show the relatively high impact of cyclonic structures on human life in Europe: most of the weather induced damages occur close to a cyclonic center, especially during warm months. Damages and human losses are more frequent from late summer to January, and precipitation is the most relevant meteorological damaging feature throughout the year.
Bayesian stochastic modeling of a spherical rock bouncing on a coarse soil
Authors: Bourrier F. , Eckert N. , Nicot F. , Darve F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Trajectory analysis models are increasingly used for rockfall hazard mapping. However, classical approaches only partially account for the variability of the trajectories. In this paper, a general formulation using a Taylor series expansion is proposed for the quantification of the relative importance of the different processes that explain the variability of the reflected velocity vector after bouncing. A stochastic bouncing model is obtained using a statistical analysis of a large numerical data set. Estimation is performed using hierarchical Bayesian modeling schemes. The model introduces information on the coupling of the reflected and incident velocity vectors, which satisfactorily expresses the mechanisms associated with boulder bouncing. The approach proposed is detailed in the case of the impact of a spherical boulder on a coarse soil, with special focus on the influence of soil particles' geometrical configuration near the impact point and kinematic parameters of the rock before bouncing. The results show that a first-order expansion is sufficient for the case studied and emphasize the predominant role of the local soil properties on the reflected velocity vector's variability. The proposed model is compared with classical approaches and the interest for rockfall hazard assessment of reliable stochastic bouncing models in trajectory simulations is illustrated with a simple case study.
New tool for the spatio-temporal variation analysis of seismic parameters
Authors: Papadopoulos G. A. , Baskoutas I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper a new research tool called FastBEE (Fast Estimation of Expected Big Earthquake) is proposed, for the analysis of three basic seismic parameters, (the number of earthquakes N, b-value, and the seismic energy released in the form logE2/3), in order to examine their spatio-temporal variation behavior. The developed research tool is suited to analyze earthquake catalogs and it comprise new interactive visualization techniques for the exploration of the results. The tool was tested in several seismic active areas of the Hellenic territory and a case study of its applicability is presented. It is observed that the results of the seismicity parameters analysis show a clear temporal fluctuation, with respect to their mean values. Such a behavior can be interpreted as the result of the geodynamic process acting in the region. In several cases the observed significant changes can be related to strong earthquakes, so that they can be considered as precursor indicating the preparation stage for an impending strong earthquake activity.
Evaluation of a statistical downscaling procedure for the estimation of climate change impacts on droughts
Authors: Vasiliades L. , Loukas A. , Patsonas G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Despite uncertainties in future climates, there is considerable evidence that there will be substantial impacts on the environment and human interests. Climate change will affect the hydrology of a region through changes in the timing, amount, and form of precipitation, evaporation and transpiration rates, and soil moisture, which in turn affect also the drought characteristics in a region. Droughts are long-term phenomena affecting large regions causing significant damages both in human lives and economic losses. The most widely used approach in regional climate impact studies is to combine the output of the General Circulation Models (GCMs) with an impact model. The outputs of Global Circulation Model CGCMa2 were applied for two socioeconomic scenarios, namely, SRES A2 and SRES B2 for the assessment of climate change impact on droughts. In this study, a statistical downscaling method has been applied for monthly precipitation. The methodology is based on multiple regression of GCM predictant variables with observed precipitation developed in an earlier paper (Loukas et al., 2008) and the application of a stochastic timeseries model for precipitation residuals simulation (white noise). The methodology was developed for historical period (1960–1990) and validated against observed monthly precipitation for period 1990–2002 in Lake Karla watershed, Thessaly, Greece. The validation indicated the accuracy of the methodology and the uncertainties propagated by the downscaling procedure in the estimation of a meteorological drought index the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) at multiple timescales. Subsequently, monthly precipitation and SPI were estimated for two future periods 2020–2050 and 2070–2100. The results of the present study indicate the accuracy, reliability and uncertainty of the statistical downscaling method for the assessment of climate change on hydrological, agricultural and water resources droughts. Results show that climate change will have a major impact on droughts but the uncertainty introduced is quite large and is increasing as SPI timescale increases. Larger timescales of SPI, which, are used to monitor hydrological and water resources droughts, are more sensitive to climate change than smaller timescales, which, are used to monitor meteorological and agricultural droughts. Future drought predictions should be handled with caution and their uncertainty should always be evaluated as results demonstrate.
Groundwater processes in a complex landslide, northern Apennines, Italy
Authors: Ronchetti F. , Borgatti L. , Cervi F. , Gorgoni C. , Piccinini L. , Vincenzi V. , Corsini A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The hydrogeological characteristics of roto-translational slides in flysch are complex, due to the inherent anisotropy and heterogeneity of rock masses and related deposits. The paper deals with the hydrogeological characterization of a reactivated roto-translational slide affecting Cretaceous flysch rocks, located in the northern Apennines of Italy. Continuous monitoring of groundwater levels, in-situ permeability and pumping tests, hydrochemical and physical analyses and Uranine tracers were the adopted prospecting methods. In this research hydrological monitoring and investigation are summarized in order to define a hydrogeological conceptual model of the landslide source area. Results showed that two overlaying hydrogeological units exist at the slope scale: the first is unconfined, but highly compartmentalized, and hosted in the fractured and dismembered rock slide body. The second is confined and lays in the undisturbed flysch below the sliding surface. The groundwater level in the confined hydrogeological unit is twenty meters higher than the groundwater level in the uppermost one. Moreover, the groundwater chemistry characterization revealed a rising of deep fluids in the landslide area.
The Swiss flood and landslide damage database 1972–2007
Authors: Hilker N. , Badoux A. , Hegg C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In Switzerland, floods, debris flows, landslides and rockfalls cause damage every year affecting property values, infrastructure, forestry and agriculture. As population and settled areas have increased, the damage potential has also become greater. Information about natural hazard events that caused any damage is needed for hazard mapping and further decision making. This is why the Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL has been systematically collecting information on flood and mass movement damage in a database since 1972. The estimated direct financial damage as well as fatalities and injured people have been documented using press articles as the main source of information. The database can provide answers to questions related to the temporal and spatial distribution of damage, natural hazard processes and the corresponding weather conditions. This study describes the data collection methods used and the key analyses of data from 1972 to 2007. Furthermore, the benefits and drawbacks of the database are discussed. In Switzerland, naturally triggered floods, debris flows, landslides and rockfalls have caused financial damage amounting to nearly 8000 million Euros in total within the last 36 years (taking inflation into account). These processes have mainly affected pre– and central alpine regions and their total costs of damage are dominated by a few major events. Nearly one quarter of the costs result from August 2005 when large parts of Northern Switzerland were affected by flooding. We must assume that major events like this are not unique and that similar events will occur again in future.
Engineering monitoring of rockfall hazards along transportation corridors: using mobile terrestrial LiDAR
Authors: Lato M. , Hutchinson J. , Diederichs M. , Ball D. , Harrap R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Geotechnical hazards along linear transportation corridors are challenging to identify and often require constant monitoring. Inspecting corridors using traditional, manual methods requires the engineer to be unnecessarily exposed to the hazard. It also requires closure of the corridor to ensure safety of the worker from passing vehicles. This paper identifies the use of mobile terrestrial LiDAR data as a compliment to traditional field methods. Mobile terrestrial LiDAR is an emerging remote data collection technique capable of generating accurate fully three-dimensional virtual models while driving at speeds up to 100 km/h. Data is collected from a truck that causes no delays to active traffic nor does it impede corridor use. These resultant georeferenced data can be used for geomechanical structural feature identification and kinematic analysis, rockfall path identification and differential monitoring of rock movement or failure over time. Comparisons between mobile terrestrial and static LiDAR data collection and analysis are presented. As well, detailed discussions on workflow procedures for possible implementation are discussed. Future use of mobile terrestrial LiDAR data for corridor analysis will focus on repeated surveys and developing dynamic four-dimensional models, higher resolution data collection. As well, computationally advanced, spatially accurate, geomechanically controlled three-dimensional rockfall simulations should be investigated.
Cyclogenesis in the Mediterranean basin: a diagnosis using synoptic-dynamic anomalies
Authors: Kaspar M. , Müller M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This work deals with the hypothesis that synoptically-driven heavy rains in the Mediterranean region are connected with the occurrence of synoptic-dynamic anomalies. We investigate this hypothesis by conducting a diagnostic study of a cyclogenesis event from 18–21 July 2001. Cyclogenesis started over the western Mediterranean Sea and was triggered by the approach of a pre-existing upper trough over a lower frontal zone. The event was first accompanied by heavy convective rains in northern Italy and later by heavy, widespread and steady rains of non-convective character in Central Europe. Using re-analyses from the database ERA-40, we evaluate the synoptic-dynamic anomalies by the cumulative distribution function relatively to July–August area-related climatology over the reference period from 1958 to 2002. For the duration of cyclogenesis, we detect significant anomalies associated with the processes that support the completion of vertical coupling between the lower frontal zone and the upper vorticity maximum. The periods of heavy rains in both the Mediterranean region and Central Europe were characterised by the occurrence of anomalies that created synoptic-scale conditions favourable for triggering and sustaining heavy rains. Although these anomalies were somewhat weaker in the period of heavy rains in Central Europe than in the Mediterranean region, the analysis of their spatio-temporal correspondence over the reference rainfall events in the Czech Republic shows that they are typical of heavy rains there. Due to the relatively high variability of the causal synoptic-scale conditions, this study would benefit post-processing procedures aimed at improving warning about this hazardous weather phenomenon to further investigate which anomalies generally occur during synoptically-driven heavy rains in the Mediterranean region and the strengths of these anomalies.
Normalised flood losses in Europe: 1970–2006
Authors: Barredo J. I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper presents an assessment of normalised flood losses in Europe for the period 1970–2006. Normalisation provides an estimate of the losses that would occur if the floods from the past take place under current societal conditions. Economic losses from floods are the result of both societal and climatological factors. Failing to adjust for time-variant socio-economic factors produces loss amounts that are not directly comparable over time, but rather show an ever-growing trend for purely socio-economic reasons. This study has used available information on flood losses from the Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) and the Natural Hazards Assessment Network (NATHAN). Following the conceptual approach of previous studies, we normalised flood losses by considering the effects of changes in population, wealth, and inflation at the country level. Furthermore, we removed inter-country price differences by adjusting the losses for purchasing power parities (PPP). We assessed normalised flood losses in 31 European countries. These include the member states of the European Union, Norway, Switzerland, Croatia, and the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia. Results show no detectable sign of human-induced climate change in normalised flood losses in Europe. The observed increase in the original flood losses is mostly driven by societal factors.
Energy dissipation of rockfalls by coppice structures
Authors: Ciabocco G. , Boccia L. , Ripa M. N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The objective of this work is to develop elements to improve understanding of the behaviour of a coppice in relation to the phenomenon of falling boulders. The first section proposes an amendment to the equation for calculating the index which describes the probability of impact between a rock and plants in managed coppice forests. A study was carried out, using models to calculate the kinetic energy of a falling boulder along a slope considering the kinetic energy dissipated during the impact with the structure of forest plants managed by coppice. The output of the simulation models were then compared with the real dynamics of falling boulders in field tests using digital video. It emerged from an analysis of the results of this comparison that a modification to the 1989 Gsteiger equation was required, in order to calculate the "Average Distance between Contacts" (ADC). To this purpose, the concept of "Structure of Interception", proposed in this paper, was developed, valid as a first approach for describing the differences in the spatial distribution of stems between coppice and forest. This study also aims to provide suggestions for forestry management, in order to maintain or increase the protective capacity of a coppice managed with conventional techniques for the area studied, modifying the dendrometric characteristics.
Unified multifractal atmospheric dynamics tested in the tropics: part I, horizontal scaling and self criticality
Authors: Chigirinskaya Y. , Schertzer D. , Lovejoy S. , Lazarev A. , Ordanovich A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper we test the Unified Mulifractal model of atmospheric dynamics in the tropics. In the first part, we empirically investigate the scaling behaviour along the horizontal, in the second part along the vertical. Here we concentrate on the presentation of basic multifractal notions and techniques and on how they give rise to self-organized critical structures. Indeed, we point out a rather simple and clear characterisation of these structures which may help to clarify both the nature of the oft-cited coherent structures and the generation of cyclones. Using 30 aircraft series of horizontal wind and temperature, we find rather remarkable constancy of the three universal multifractal indices H, C1 and α as well as the value of critical exponents qD, γD associated with multifractal phase transitions and self-organized critical structures. This constancy extends not only from wind tunnel and mid-latitude to the tropics, but also to multifractals generated by Navier-Stokes like equations.
Unified multifractal atmospheric dynamics tested in the tropics: part II, vertical scaling and generalized scale invariance
Authors: Lazarev A. , Schertzer D. , Lovejoy S. , Chigirinskaya Y.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We empirically investigate the scaling behaviour of the horizontal wind along the vertical direction using 287 radiosonde soundings with a resolution of 50 m. We compare the results obtained with those of the horizontal temporal behaviour in the framework of Generalized Scaling Invariance and the unified Scaling model of atmospheric dynamics. We find the scaling to be very well respected over the range 50 m - 13 km (nearly the entire troposphere) and we estimate the universal multifractal indices which characterize the statistics in the vertical. By comparing our result with those obtained in the horizontal we show that the degree of stratification is different for mean and extreme structures. Finally, we theoretically discuss the necessary improvements to the Unified Multifractal model needed to account for them.
Searching for determinism in observed data: a review of the issues involved
Authors: Tsonis A. A. , Triantafyllou G. N. , Elsner J. B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper we present a review of advances made and problems still existing in the application of the theory of chaos and dynamical systems to time series. In particular we discuss issues pertaining the estimation of dimensions, Lyapunov exponents and nonlinear prediction from an observable. We analyze the problems and discuss proper ways to deal with them.
Developing diagnostics for input-output systems: the effects of certain linear and nonlinear filters on the correlation integral
Authors: Vassiliadis D. , Daglis I. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Input-output systems are characterized by applying time series analysis techniques developed for autonomous systems to the input and the output time series separately and using the results as nonlinear statistics of the time series distributions. Two examples are presented using the correlation integral as a nonlinear statistic: the first one examines the change in the statistic when several sample input time series are passed through a nonlinear filter. The rectifier is chosen as the filter because it models, at first approximation, the effect of dayside magnetospheric reconnection to the interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind input. The changes in the correlation integral are used to characterize the filter response. A second example compares a linear filter of the rectified solar wind input to the observed auroral geomagnetic activity in terms of their correlation integrals. Implications for models of the solar wind-magneto- sphere coupling are discussed.
Mixed layer in a stably stratified fluid
Authors: Califano F. , Mangeney A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We present a numerical study of the generation and evolution of a mixed layer in a stably stratified layer of Boussinesq fluid. We use an external forcing in the equation of motion to model the experimental situation where the mechanical energy input is due to an oscillating grid. The results of 2D and 3D numerical simulations indicate that the basic mechanism for the entrainment is the advection of the temperature field. This advection tends to produce horizontally thin regions of small temperature vertical gradients (jets) where the hydrodynamics forces are nearly zero. At the bottom of these structures, the buoyancy brakes the vertical motions. The jets are also characterized by the presence of very short horizontal scales where the thermal diffusion time turn out to be comparable with the dynamics time. As a result, the temperature field is well mixed in a few dynamics times. This process stops when the mechanical energy injected becomes comparable with the energy dissipated by viscosity.
Frustration and disorder in granular media and tectonic blocks: implications for earthquake complexity
Authors: Sornette A. , Sornette D. , Evesque P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We present exploratory analogies and speculations on the mechanisms underlying the organization of faulting and earthquake in the earth crust. The mechanical properties of the brittle lithosphere at scales of the order or larger than a few kilometers are proposed to be analogous to those of non-cohesive granular media, since both systems present stress amplitudes controlled by gravity, and shear band (faulting) localization is determined by a type of friction Mohr-Coulomb rupture criterion. here, we explore the implications of this correspondence with respect to the origin of tectonic and earthquake complexity, on the basis of the existing experimental data on granular media available in the mechanical literature. An important observation is that motions and deformations of non-cohesive granular media are characterized by important fluctuations both in time (sudden breaks, avalanches, which are analogous to earthquakes) and space (strain localizations, yield surfaces forming sometimes complex patterns). This is in apparent contradiction with the conventional wisdom in mechanics, based on the standard tendency to homogenize, which has led to dismiss fluctuations as experimental noise. On the basis of a second analogy with spinglasses and neural networks, based on the existence of block and grain packing disorder and block rotation "frustration", we suggest that these fluctuations observed both at large scales and at the block scale constitute an intrinsic signature of the mechanics of granular media. The space-time complexity observed in faulting and earthquake phenomenology is thus proposed to result form the special properties of the mechanics of granular media, dominated by the "frustration" of the kinematic deformations of its constitutive blocks.
On the possibility of wave-induced chaos in a sheared, stably stratified fluid layer
Authors: Zimmermann W. B. , Velarde M. G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Shear flow in a stable stratification provides a waveguide for internal gravity waves. In the inviscid approximation, internal gravity waves are known to be unstable below a threshold in Richardson number. However, in a viscous fluid, at low enough Reynolds number, this threshold recedes to Ri = 0. Nevertheless, even the slightest viscosity strongly damps internal gravity waves when the Richardson number is small (shear forces dominate buoyant forces). In this paper we address the dynamics that approximately govern wave propagation when the Richardson number is small and the fluid is viscous. When Ri << 1, to a first approximation, the transport equations for thermal energy and momentum decouple. Thus, a large amplitude temperature wave then has little effect on the fluid velocity. Under such conditions in the atmosphere, a small amplitude "turbulent burst" is observed, transporting momentum rapidly and seemingly randomly. A regular perturbation scheme from a base state of a passing temperature wave and no velocity disturbance is developed here. Small thermal energy convection-momentum transport coupling is taken into account. The elements of forcing, wave dispersion, (turbulent) dissipation under strong shearing, and weak nonlinearity lead to this dynamical equation for the amplitude A of the turbulent burst in velocity: Aξ = λ1A + λ2Aξξ + λ3Aξξξ + λ4AAξ + b(ξ) where ξ is the coordinate of the rest frame of the passing temperature wave whose horizontal profile is b(ξ). The parameters λi are constants that depend on the Reynolds number. The above dynamical system is know to have limit cycle and chaotic attrators when forcing is sinusoidal and wave attenuation negligible.
Prediction of the stochastic behaviour of nonlinear systems by deterministic models as a classical time-passage probabilistic problem
Authors: Ivanov L. M. , Kirwan, Jr. A. D. , Melnichenko O. V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Assuming that the behaviour of a nonlinear stochastic system can be described by a Markovian diffusion approximation and that the evolution equations can be reduced to a system of ordinary differential equations, a method for the calculation of prediction time is developed. In this approach, the prediction time depends upon the accuracy of prediction, the intensity of turbulence, the accuracy of the initial conditions, the physics contained in the mathematical model, the measurement errors, and the number of prediction variables. A numerical application to zonal channel flow illustrates the theory. Some possible generalizations of the theory are also discussed.
Hamiltonian description of wave dynamics in nonequilibrium media
Authors: Romanova N. N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We consider Hamiltonian description of weakly nonlinear wave dynamics in unstable and nonequilibrium media. We construct the appropriate canonical variables in the whole wavenumber space. The essentially new element is the construction of canonical variables in a vicinity of marginally stable points where two normal modes coalesce. The commonly used normal variables are not appropriate in this domain. The mater is that the approximation of weak nonlinearity breaks down when the dynamical system is written in terms of these variables. In this case we introduce the canonical variables based on the linear combination of modes belonging to the two different branches of dispersion curve. As an example of one of the possible applications of presented results the evolution equations for weakly nonlinear wave packets in the marginally stable area are derived. These equations cannot be derived if we deal with the commonly used normal variables.
Nonequilibrium plankton community structures in an ecohydrodynamic model system
Authors: Malchow H. , Shigesada N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Due to the local and global impacts of algae blooms and patchiness on water quality, carbon cycling and climate, models of plankton dynamics are of current interest. In this paper, the temporal and spatial patterns in natural plankton communities are interpreted as transient and stationary nonequilibrium solutions of dynamical nonlinear interaction-diffusion-advection systems. A simple model of phytoplankton-zooplankton dynamics (Scheffer, 1991) is presented in space and time. After summarizing the local properties as multiple stability and oscillations, the emergence of spatial and spatio- temporal patterns is considered, accounting also for diffusion and weak advection. In order to study the emergence and stability of these structures under hydrodynamic forcing, the interaction- diffusion-advection model is coupled to the hydrodynamic equations. It is shown, that the formation of nonequilibrium spatio-temporal density patterns due to the interplay of the deterministic nonlinear biological interactions and physical processes is a rare occurrence in rapidly flowing waters. The two-timing perturbation technique is applied to problems with very rapid single-directed steady flows. A channel under tidal forcing serves as and example for a system with a relatively high detention time of matter. Generally, due to the different time and length scales of planktic interactions, diffusion and transport, initial nonequilibrium plankton patches are simply moved through the system unless the strong hydrodynamic forces do not destroy them before.
Lagrangian drifter paths and length scales in the tropical Pacific warm pool from 1990 to 1991: with application of fractal techniques
Authors: Nakamoto S. , Kashino Y. , Fang Z. , Kawano T. , Muneyama K. , Nakanishi T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper presents an analysis of WOCE/TOGA surface drifter paths and its interpretation in conjunction with the west Pacific warm pool water motion. Our interest here lies in the existence of scale invariance in the observed data sets. The analysis proceeds by detecting scale invariance in the drifter paths data, and interpreting the invariance in terms of the statistical second order moment. The range of constant scaling exponent was found to be between 5 days and 10 days, and this range corresponded with the "long tail" of the temporal correlation function in the zonal direction. Velocity covariances in both the zonal and meridional directions were computed, and corresponding diffusivities were 8100 m2/sec meridionally and 41000 m2/sec zonally. Considering the existence of large scale mean flow, it is thought that self-similar energy cascade processes associated with constant scaling exponent may be responsible for the anomalous zonal diffusivity, while the meridional diffusivity may be approximated by ordinary Brownian processes. We suggest that the scale invariance of the WOCE/TOGA surface drifter paths may be a manifestation of energy cascade processes from large scale mean flow to smaller scale irregular flow that is represented by fractional Brownian motion in the zonal direction.
The small amplitude of density turbulence in the inner solar wind
Authors: Spangler S. R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Very Long Baseline Interferometer (VLBI) observations were made of radio sources close to the Sun, whose lines of sight pass through the inner solar wind (impact parameters 16-26 RE). Power spectra were analyzed of the interferometer phase fluctuations due to the solar wind plasma. These power spectra provide information on the level of plasma density fluctuations on spatial scales of roughly one hundred to several thousand kilometers. By specifying an outer scale to the turbulence spectrum, we can estimate the root-mean-square (rms) amplitude of the density fluctuations. The data indicate that the rms fluctuation in density is only about 10% of the mean density. This value is low, and consistent with extrapolated estimates from more distant parts of the solar wind. Physical speculations based on this result are presented.
Resonant-to-nonresonant transition in electrostatic ion-cyclotron wave phase velocity
Authors: Carroll III J. J. , Koepke M. E. , Zintl M. W. , Gavrishchaka V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Because of the implications for plasmas in the laboratory and in space, attention has been drawn to inhomogeneous energy-density driven (IEDD) waves that are sustained by velocity-shear-induced inhomogeneity in cross-field plasma flow. These waves have a frequency vr in the lab frame within an order of magnitude of the ion gyrofrequency vci, propagate nearly perpendicular to the magnetic field (kz /k^ << 1), and can be Landau resonant (0 < v1/kz < nd) with a parallel drifting electron population (drift speed nd), where subscripts 1 and r indicate frequency in the frame of flowing ions and in the lab frame, respectively, and kz is the parallel component of the wavevector. A transition in phase velocity from 0 < v1/kz < nd to 0 > v1/kz > nd for a pair of IEDD eigenmodes is observed as the degree of in-homogeneity in the transverse E × B flow is increased in a magnetized plasma column. For weaker velocity shear, both eigenmodes are dissipative, i.e. in Landau resonance, with kz nd > 0. For stronger shear, both eigenmodes become reactive, with one's wavevector component kz remaining parallel, but with v1/kz > nd , and the other's wavevector component kz becoming anti-parallel, so that 0 > v1/kz . For both eigenmodes, the transition (1) involves a small frequency shift and (2) does not involve a sign change in the wave energy density, which is proportional to vr v1, both of which are previously unrecognized aspects of inhomogeneous energy-density driven waves.
Geometric aspects of HF driven Langmuir turbulence in the ionosphere
Authors: Mjølhus E. , Helmersen E. , DuBois D. F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The geometric aspects of HF-generated Langmuir turbulence in the ionosphere and its detection by radars are theoretically discussed in a broad approach, including local modelling (damped and driven Zakharov system), basic parametric instabilities, polarization and strength of the driving electric field, and radar configurations. Selected examples of numerical results from the local model are presented and discussed in relation to recent experiments, with emphasis on recent experiments at the EISCAT facilities. Anisotropic aspects of the cavitation process in the magnetized plasma are exhibited. Basic processes of cascades and cavitation are by now well identified in these experiments, but a few problems of the detailed agreement between theory and experiments are pointed out.
The fourth workshop on nonlinear processes in space plasmas: epilogue and telesis
Authors: Spangler S. R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. No Abstract available.
Cyclic Markov chains with an application to an intermediate ENSO model
Authors: Pasmanter R. A. , Timmermann A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We develop the theory of cyclic Markov chains and apply it to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) predictability problem. At the core of Markov chain modelling is a partition of the state space such that the transition rates between different state space cells can be computed and used most efficiently. We apply a partition technique, which divides the state space into multidimensional cells containing an equal number of data points. This partition leads to mathematical properties of the transition matrices which can be exploited further such as to establish connections with the dynamical theory of unstable periodic orbits. We introduce the concept of most and least predictable states. The data basis of our analysis consists of a multicentury-long data set obtained from an intermediate coupled atmosphere-ocean model of the tropical Pacific. This cyclostationary Markov chain approach captures the spring barrier in ENSO predictability and gives insight also into the dependence of ENSO predictability on the climatic state.
The role of boundary and initial conditions for dynamical seasonal predictability
Authors: Reichler T. J. , Roads J. O.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The importance of initial state and boundary forcing for atmospheric predictability is explored on global to regional spatial scales and on daily to seasonal time scales. A general circulation model is used to conduct predictability experiments with different combinations of initial and boundary conditions. The experiments are verified under perfect model assumptions as well as against observational data. From initial conditions alone, there is significant instantaneous forecast skill out to 2 months. Different initial conditions show different predictability using the same kind of boundary forcing. Even on seasonal time scales, using observed atmospheric initial conditions leads to a substantial increase in overall skill, especially during periods with weak tropical forcing. The impact of boundary forcing on predictability is detectable after 10 days and leads to measurable instantaneous forecast skill at very long lead times. Over the Northern Hemisphere, it takes roughly 4 weeks for boundary conditions to reach the same effect on predictability as initial conditions. During events with strong tropical forcing, these time scales are somewhat shorter. Over the Southern Hemisphere, there is a strongly enhanced influence of initial conditions during summer. We conclude that the long term memory of initial conditions is important for seasonal forecasting.