At-admission prediction of mortality and pulmonary embolism in an international cohort of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 using statistical and machine learning methods
Authors: Mesinovic Munib , Wong Xin Ci , Rajahram Giri Shan , Citarella Barbara Wanjiru , Peariasamy Kalaiarasu M. , van Someren Greve Frank , Olliaro Piero , Merson Laura , Clifton Lei , Kartsonaki Christiana ,   ISARIC Characterisation Group, Abdukahil Sheryl Ann , Abdulkadir Nurul Najmee , Abe Ryuzo , Abel Laurent , Abrous Amal , Absil Lara , Acker Andrew , Adachi Shingo , Adam Elisabeth , Adriano Enrico , Adrião Diana , Ageel Saleh Al , Ahmed Shakeel , Aiello Marina , Ainscough Kate , Airlangga Eka , Aisa Tharwat , Hssain Ali Ait , Tamlihat Younes Ait , Akimoto Takako , Akmal Ernita , Qasim Eman Al , Alalqam Razi , Alberti Angela , Al-dabbous Tala , Alegesan Senthilkumar , Alegre Cynthia , Alessi Marta , Alex Beatrice , Alexandre Kévin , Al-Fares Abdulrahman , Alfoudri Huda , Ali Adam , Ali Imran , Alidjnou Kazali Enagnon , Aliudin Jeffrey , Alkhafajee Qabas , Allavena Clotilde , Allou Nathalie , Alves João , Alves João Melo , Alves Rita , Cabrita Joana Alves , Amaral Maria , Amira Nur , Ammerlaan Heidi , Ampaw Phoebe , Andini Roberto , Andréjak Claire , Angheben Andrea , Angoulvant François , Ansart Séverine , Anthonidass Sivanesen , Antonelli Massimo , de Brito Carlos Alexandre Antunes , Anwar Kazi Rubayet , Apriyana Ardiyan , Arabi Yaseen , Aragao Irene , Arancibia Francisco , Araujo Carolline , Arcadipane Antonio , Archambault Patrick , Arenz Lukas , Arlet Jean-Benoît , Arnold-Day Christel , Arora Lovkesh , Arora Rakesh , Artaud-Macari Elise , Aryal Diptesh , Asaki Motohiro , Asensio Angel , Ashley Elizabeth A. , Ashraf Muhammad , Assie Jean Baptiste , Asyraf Amirul , Atique Anika , Attanyake AM Udara Lakshan , Auchabie Johann , Aumaitre Hugues , Auvet Adrien , Azemar Laurène , Azoulay Cecile , Bach Benjamin , Bachelet Delphine , Badr Claudine , Baig Nadia , Baillie J. Kenneth , Baird J Kevin , Bak Erica , Bakakos Agamemnon , Bakar Nazreen Abu , Bal Andriy , Balakrishnan Mohanaprasanth , Balan Valeria , Bani-Sadr Firouzé , Barbalho Renata , Barbosa Nicholas Yuri , Barclay Wendy S. , Barnett Saef Umar , Barnikel Michaela , Barrasa Helena , Barrelet Audrey , Barrigoto Cleide , Bartoli Marie , Baruch Joaquín , Basmaci Romain , Basri Muhammad Fadhli Hassin , Battaglini Denise , Bauer Jules , Rincon Diego Fernando Bautista , Dow Denisse Bazan , Beane Abigail , Bedossa Alexandra , Bee Ker Hong , Begum Husna , Behilill Sylvie , Beishuizen Albertus , Beljantsev Aleksandr , Bellemare David , Beltrame Anna , Beltrão Beatriz Amorim , Beluze Marine , Benech Nicolas , Benjiman Lionel Eric , Benkerrou Dehbia , Bennett Suzanne , Bento Luís , Berdal Jan-Erik , Bergeaud Delphine , Bergin Hazel , Bertoli Giulia , Bertolino Lorenzo , Bessis Simon , Betz Adam , Bevilcaqua Sybille , Bezulier Karine , Bhatt Amar , Bhavsar Krishna , Bianco Claudia , Bidin Farah Nadiah , Singh Moirangthem Bikram , Humaid Felwa Bin , Kamarudin Mohd Nazlin Bin , Bisoffi Zeno , Bissuel François , Biston Patrick , Bitker Laurent , Bitton Jonathan , Blanco-Schweizer Pablo , Blier Catherine , Bloos Frank , Blot Mathieu , Blumberg Lucille , Boccia Filomena , Bodenes Laetitia , Bogaert Debby , Boivin Anne-Hélène , Bolaños Isabela , Bolze Pierre-Adrien , Bompart François , Bonelli Patrizia , Bonfasius Aurelius , Borges Diogo , Borie Raphaël , Bosse Hans Martin , Botelho-Nevers Elisabeth , Bouadma Lila , Bouchaud Olivier , Bouchez Sabelline , Bouhmani Dounia , Bouhour Damien , Bouiller Kévin , Bouillet Laurence , Bouisse Camile , Bounphiengsy Thipsavanh , Bountthasavong Latsaniphone , Boureau Anne-Sophie , Bourke John , Bouscambert Maude , Bousquet Aurore , Bouziotis Jason , Boxma Bianca , Boyer-Besseyre Marielle , Boylan Maria , Bozza Fernando Augusto , Braconnier Axelle , Braga Cynthia , Brandenburger Timo , Monteiro Filipa Brás , Brazzi Luca , Breen Dorothy , Breen Patrick , Brewster David , Brickell Kathy , Browne Alex , Browne Shaunagh , Brozzi Nicolas , Brusse-Keizer Marjolein , Buchtele Nina , Bugaeva Polina , Buisson Marielle , Buonsenso Danilo , Burhan Erlina , Burrell Aidan , Bustos Ingrid G. , Butnaru Denis , Cabie André , Cabral Susana , Caceres Eder , Cadoz Cyril , Garcês Rui Caetano , Callahan Mia , Calligy Kate , Calvache Jose Andres , Caminiti Caterina , Camões João , Campana Valentine , Campbell Paul , Campisi Josie , Canepa Cecilia , Cantero Mireia , Caraux-Paz Pauline , Cárcel Sheila , Cardellino Chiara Simona , Cardoso Filipa , Cardoso Filipe , Cardoso Nelson , Cardoso Sofia , Carelli Simone , Carlacci Francesca , Carlier Nicolas , Carmoi Thierry , Carney Gayle , Carqueja Inês , Carret Marie-Christine , Carrier François Martin , Carroll Ida , Carson Gail , Carvalho Leonor , Casanova Maire-Laure , Cascão Mariana , Casey Siobhan , Casimiro José , Cassandra Bailey , Castañeda Silvia , Castanheira Nidyanara , Castor-Alexandre Guylaine , Castro Ivo , Catarino Ana , Catherine François-Xavier , Cattaneo Paolo , Cavalin Roberta , Cavalli Giulio Giovanni , Cavayas Alexandros , Ceccato Adrian , Cerkovnik Shelby , Cervantes-Gonzalez Minerva , Chair Anissa , Chakveatze Catherine , Chaleunphon Bounthavy , Chan Adrienne , Chand Meera , Auger Christelle Chantalat , Chapplain Jean-Marc , Charpentier Charlotte , Chas Julie , Chatterjee Allegra , Iñiguez Jonathan Samuel Chávez , Chen Anjellica , Chenard Léo , Cheng Matthew Pellan , Cheret Antoine , Chetta Alfredo Antonio , Chiarabini Thibault , Chica Julian , Chidambaram Suresh Kumar , Tho Leong Chin , Chirouze Catherine , Chiumello Davide , Cho Hwa Jin , Cho Sung-Min , Cholley Bernard , Chommanam Danoy , Chopin Marie-Charlotte , Chow Ting Soo , Chow Yock Ping , Christy Nathaniel , Chua Hiu Jian , Chua Jonathan , Cidade Jose Pedro , Herreros José Miguel Cisneros , Citarella Barbara Wanjiru , Ciullo Anna , Clarke Emma , Clarke Jennifer , Granado Rolando Claure-Del , Clohisey Sara , Codan Cassidy , Cody Caitriona , Coelho Alexandra , Coles Jennifer , Coles Megan , Colin Gwenhaël , Collins Michael , Colombo Sebastiano Maria , Combs Pamela , Connor Marie , Conrad Anne , Contreras Sofía , Conway Elaine , Cooke Graham S. , Copland Mary , Cordel Hugues , Corley Amanda , Cornelis Sabine , Cornet Alexander Daniel , Corpuz Arianne Joy , Cortegiani Andrea , Corvaisier Grégory , Costigan Emma , Couffignal Camille , Couffin-Cadiergues Sandrine , Courtois Roxane , Cousse Stéphanie , Cregan Rachel , D’Orleans Charles Crepy , Cristella Cosimo , Croonen Sabine , Crowl Gloria , Crump Jonathan , Cruz Claudina , Csete Marc , Cullen Ailbhe , Cummings Matthew , Curley Ger , Curlier Elodie , Curran Colleen , Custodio Paula , da Silva Filipe Ana , Da Silveira Charlene , Dabaliz Al-Awwab , Dagens Andrew , Dahly Darren , Dalton Heidi , Dalton Jo , Daly Seamus , Damas Juliana , Daneman Nick , Daniel Corinne , Dankwa Emmanuelle A , Dantas Jorge , D’Aragon Frédérick , de Jong Menno , de Loughry Gillian , de Mendoza Diego , De Montmollin Etienne , de Oliveira França Rafael Freitas , de Pinho Oliveira Ana Isabel , De Rosa Rosanna , De Rose Cristina , de Silva Thushan , de Vries Peter , Deacon Jillian , Dean David , Debard Alexa , Debray Marie-Pierre , DeCastro Nathalie , Dechert William , Deconninck Lauren , Decours Romain , Defous Eve , Delacroix Isabelle , Delaveuve Eric , Delavigne Karen , Delfos Nathalie M. , Deligiannis Ionna , Dell’Amore Andrea , Delmas Christelle , Delobel Pierre , Delsing Corine , Demonchy Elisa , Denis Emmanuelle , Deplanque Dominique , Depuydt Pieter , Desai Mehul , Descamps Diane , Desvallées Mathilde , Dewayanti Santi , Dhanger Pathik , Diallo Alpha , Diamantis Sylvain , Dias André , Dias Andrea , Da Silva Fernanda Dias , Diaz Juan Jose , Diaz Priscila , Diaz Rodrigo , Didier Kévin , Diehl Jean-Luc , Dieperink Wim , Dimet Jérôme , Dinot Vincent , Diop Fara , Diouf Alphonsine , Dishon Yael , Djossou Félix , Docherty Annemarie B. , Doherty Helen , Dondorp Arjen M , Dong Andy , Donnelly Christl A. , Donnelly Maria , Donohue Chloe , Donohue Sean , Donohue Yoann , Doran Peter , Dorival Céline , D’Ortenzio Eric , Douangdala Phouvieng , Douglas James Joshua , Douma Renee , Dournon Nathalie , Downer Triona , Downey Joanne , Downing Mark , Drake Tom , Driscoll Aoife , Dryden Murray , Fonseca Claudio Duarte , Dubee Vincent , Dubos François , Dubot-Pérès Audrey , Ducancelle Alexandre , Duculan Toni , Dudman Susanne , Duggal Abhijit , Dunand Paul , Dunning Jake , Duplaix Mathilde , Durante-Mangoni Emanuele , Durham Lucian , Dussol Bertrand , Duthoit Juliette , Duval Xavier , Dyrhol-Riise Anne Margarita , Ean Sim Choon , Echeverria-Villalobos Marco , Economopoulos Giorgio , Egan Siobhan , Eira Carla , Sanharawi Mohamed El , Elapavaluru Subbarao , Elharrar Brigitte , Ellerbroek Jacobien , Eloy Philippine , Elshazly Tarek , Elyazar Iqbal , Enderle Isabelle , Endo Tomoyuki , Eng Chan Chee , Engelmann Ilka , Enouf Vincent , Epaulard Olivier , Escher Martina , Esperatti Mariano , Esperou Hélène , Santo Catarina Espírito , Esposito-Farese Marina , Estevão João , Etienne Manuel , Ettalhaoui Nadia , Everding Anna Greti , Evers Mirjam , Fabre Isabelle , Fabre Marc , Faheem Amna , Fahy Arabella , Fairfield Cameron J. , Fakar Zul , Faria Pedro , Fateena Hanan , Fatoni Arie Zainul , Faure Karine , Favory Raphaël , Fayed Mohamed , Feely Niamh , Feeney Laura , Fernandes Jorge , Fernandes Marília Andreia , Fernandes Susana , Ferrand François-Xavier , Devouge Eglantine Ferrand , Ferrão Joana , Ferrari Carlo , Ferraz Mário , Ferreira Benigno , Ferreira Bernardo , Ferreira Isabel , Ferreira Sílvia , Ferrer-Roca Ricard , Ferriere Nicolas , Ficko Céline , Figueiredo-Mello Claudia , Finlayson William , Fiorda Juan , Flament Thomas , Flateau Clara , Fletcher Tom , Florence Aline-Marie , Florio Letizia Lucia , Flynn Brigid , Flynn Deirdre , Fogliazza Federica , Foley Claire , Foley Jean , Fomin Victor , Fonseca Tatiana , Fontela Patricia , Forsyth Simon , Foster Denise , Foti Giuseppe , Fourn Erwan , Fowler Robert A. , Fraher Marianne , Franch-Llasat Diego , Fraser Christophe , Fraser John F , Freire Marcela Vieira , Ribeiro Ana Freitas , Friedrich Caren , Fritz Ricardo , Fry Stéphanie , Fuentes Nora , Fukuda Masahiro , G Argin , Gaborieau Valérie , Gaci Rostane , Gagliardi Massimo , Gagnard Jean-Charles , Gagneux-Brunon Amandine , Gaião Sérgio , Skeie Linda Gail , Gallagher Phil , Curto Elena Gallego , Gamble Carrol , Gani Yasmin , Garan Arthur , Garcia Rebekha , Garcia-Diaz Julia , Garcia-Gallo Esteban , Garimella Navya , Garofalo Federica , Garot Denis , Garrait Valérie , Gault Nathalie , Gavin Aisling , Gavrylov Anatoliy , Gaymard Alexandre , Gebauer Johannes , Geraud Eva , Morlaes Louis Gerbaud , Germano Nuno , ghisulal praveen kumar , Ghosn Jade , Giani Marco , Giaquinto Carlo , Gibson Jess , Gigante Tristan , Gilg Morgane , Gilroy Elaine , Giordano Guillermo , Girvan Michelle , Gissot Valérie , Glikman Daniel , Glybochko Petr , Gnall Eric , Goco Geraldine , Goehringer François , Goepel Siri , Goffard Jean-Christophe , Goh Jin Yi , Golob Jonathan , Gomes Rui , Gomez Kyle , Gómez-Junyent Joan , Gominet Marie , Gonzalez Alicia , Gordon Patricia , Gorenne Isabelle , Goubert Laure , Goujard Cécile , Goulenok Tiphaine , Grable Margarite , Graf Jeronimo , Grandin Edward Wilson , Granier Pascal , Grasselli Giacomo , Green Christopher A. , Greene Courtney , Greenhalf William , Greffe Segolène , Grieco Domenico Luca , Griffee Matthew , Griffiths Fiona , Grigoras Ioana , Groenendijk Albert , Lordemann Anja Grosse , Gruner Heidi , Gu Yusing , Guedj Jérémie , Guego Martin , Guellec Dewi , Guerguerian Anne-Marie , Guerreiro Daniela , Guery Romain , Guillaumot Anne , Guilleminault Laurent , de Castro Maisa Guimarães , Guimard Thomas , Haalboom Marieke , Haber Daniel , Habraken Hannah , Hachemi Ali , Hadri Nadir , Hakak Sheeba , Hall Adam , Hall Matthew , Halpin Sophie , Hamer Ansley , Hamidfar Rebecca , Hammond Naomi , Hammond Terese , Han Lim Yuen , Haniffa Rashan , Hao Kok Wei , Hardwick Hayley , Harrison Ewen M. , Harrison Janet , Harrison Samuel Bernard Ekow , Hartman Alan , Hashmi Junaid , Hayes Ailbhe , Hays Leanne , Heerman Jan , Heggelund Lars , Hendry Ross , Hennessy Martina , Henriquez-Trujillo Aquiles , Hentzien Maxime , Hernandez Diana , Hernandez-Montfort Jaime , Hershey Andrew , Hesstvedt Liv , Hidayah Astarini , Higgins Dawn , Higgins Eibhlin , Higgins Rupert , Hinchion Rita , Hinton Samuel , Hiraiwa Hiroaki , Hirkani Haider , Hitoto Hikombo , Ho Antonia , Ho Yi Bin , Hoctin Alexandre , Hoffmann Isabelle , Hoh Wei Han , Hoiting Oscar , Holt Rebecca , Holter Jan Cato , Horby Peter , Horcajada Juan Pablo , Hoshino Koji , Hoshino Kota , Houas Ikram , Hough Catherine L. , Houltham Stuart , Hsu Jimmy Ming-Yang , Hulot Jean-Sébastien , Huo Stella , Hurd Abby , Ijaz Samreen , Ikram M. Arfan , Illana Carlos Cañada , Illes Hajnal-Gabriela , Imbert Patrick , Inácio Hugo , Dominguez Carmen Infante , Ing Yun Sii , Iosifidis Elias , Ippolito Mariachiara , Irawany Vera , Isgett Sarah , Isidoro Tiago , Ismail Nadiah , Isnard Margaux , Itai Junji , Ito Asami , Ivulich Daniel , Jaafar Danielle , Jaafoura Salma , Jabot Julien , Jackson Clare , Jamieson Nina , Janes Victoria , Jaquet Pierre , Jassat Waasila , Jaud-Fischer Coline , Jaureguiberry Stéphane , Javidfar Jeffrey , Jaworsky Denise , Jego Florence , Jelani Anilawati Mat , Jenum Synne , Jimbo-Sotomayor Ruth , Joe Ong Yiaw , García Ruth N. Jorge , Joseph Cédric , Joseph Mark , Joshi Swosti , Jourdain Mercé , Jouvet Philippe , Jung Anna , Jung Hanna , Juzar Dafsah , Kafif Ouifiya , Kaguelidou Florentia , Kaisbain Neerusha , Kaleesvran Thavamany , Kali Sabina , Kalicinska Alina , Kalomoiri Smaragdi , Kamaluddin Muhammad Aisar Ayadi , Kamaruddin Zul Amali Che , Kamarudin Nadiah , Kandamby Darshana Hewa , Kandel Chris , Kang Kong Yeow , Karpayah Pratap , Karsies Todd , Kartsonaki Christiana , Kasugai Daisuke , Kataria Anant , Katz Kevin , Kaur Aasmine , Kay Christy , Keane Hannah , Keating Seán , Kedia Pulak , Kelly Andrea , Kelly Aoife , Kelly Claire , Kelly Niamh , Kelly Sadie , Kelly Yvelynne , Kelsey Maeve , Kennedy Ryan , Kennon Kalynn , Keomany Sommay , Kernan Maeve , Kerroumi Younes , Keshav Sharma , Kestelyn Evelyne , Khalid Imrana , Khalil Antoine , Khan Coralie , Khan Irfan , Kherajani Krish , Kho Michelle E , Khoo Denisa , Khoo Ryan , Khoo Saye , Kiat Khor How , Kida Yuri , Kiiza Peter , Granerud Beathe Kiland , Kildal Anders Benjamin , Kim Jae Burm , Kimmoun Antoine , Kindgen-Milles Detlef , King Alexander , Kitamura Nobuya , Klenerman Paul , Klont Rob , Bekken Gry Kloumann , Knight Stephen R , Kobbe Robin , Kodippily Chamira , Vasconcelos Malte Kohns , Komatsu Mamoru , Korten ISARIC Collaborator , Kosgei Caroline , Kpangon Arsène , Krawczyk Karolina , Krishnan Sudhir , Krishnan Vinothini , Kruglova Oksana , Kumar Deepali , Kumar Ganesh , Vecham Pavan Kumar , Kuriakose Dinesh , Kurtzman Ethan , Kusumastuti Neurinda Permata , Kutsogiannis Demetrios , Kutsyna Galyna , Kyriakoulis Konstantinos , Hamers Raph L. , Lachatre Marie , Lacoste Marie , Laffey John G. , Lafhej Nadhem , Lagrange Marie , Laine Fabrice , Lairez Olivier , Lambert Marc , Lamontagne François , Langelot-Richard Marie , Langlois Vincent , Lantang Eka Yudha , Lanza Marina , Laouénan Cédric , Laribi Samira , Lariviere Delphine , Lasry Stéphane , Lath Sakshi , Launay Odile , Laureillard Didier , Lavie-Badie Yoan , Law Andrew , Lawrence Cassie , Lawrence Teresa , Le Minh , Bihan Clément Le , Bris Cyril Le , Falher Georges Le , Fevre Lucie Le , Hingrat Quentin Le , Maréchal Marion Le , Mestre Soizic Le , Moal Gwenaël Le , Moing Vincent Le , Nagard Hervé Le , Turnier Paul Le , Leal Ema , Santos Marta Leal , Lee Biing Horng , Lee Heng Gee , Lee James , Lee Jennifer , Lee Su Hwan , Lee Todd C. , Lee Yi Lin , Leeming Gary , Lefebvre Bénédicte , Lefebvre Laurent , Lefèvre Benjamin , LeGac Sylvie , Lelievre Jean-Daniel , Lellouche François , Lemaignen Adrien , Lemee Véronique , Lemeur Anthony , Lemmink Gretchen , Lene Ha Sha , Lennon Jenny , León Rafael , Leone Marc , Leone Michela , Lescure François-Xavier , Lesens Olivier , Lesouhaitier Mathieu , Lester-Grant Amy , Letizia Andrew , Letrou Sophie , Levy Bruno , Levy Yves , Levy-Marchal Claire , Lewandowska Katarzyna , L’Her Erwan , Bassi Gianluigi Li , Liang Janet , Liegeon Geoffrey , Lim Kah Chuan , Lim Wei Shen , Lima Chantre , Lina Bruno , Lina Lim , Lind Andreas , Lingad Maja Katherine , Lingas Guillaume , Lion-Daolio Sylvie , Lissauer Samantha , Liu Keibun , Livrozet Marine , Lizotte Patricia , Loforte Antonio , Lolong Navy , Loon Leong Chee , Lopes Diogo , Lopez-Colon Dalia , Lopez-Revilla Jose W. , Loschner Anthony L. , Loubet Paul , Loufti Bouchra , Louis Guillame , Lourenco Silvia , Lovelace-Macon Lara , Low Lee Lee , Lowik Marije , Loy Jia Shyi , Lucet Jean Christophe , Luna Carlos M. , Lungu Olguta , Luong Liem , Luque Nestor , Luton Dominique , Lwin Nilar , Lyons Ruth , Maasikas Olavi , Mabiala Oryane , Machado Moïse , Machado Sara , Macheda Gabriel , Madiha Hashmi , Maglietta Giuseppe , Mahieu Rafael , Mahy Sophie , Maia Ana Raquel , Maier Lars S. , Maillet Mylène , Maitre Thomas , Majori Maria , Malfertheiner Maximilian , Malik Nadia , Mallon Paddy , Maltez Fernando , Malvy Denis , Mammi Patrizia , Manda Victoria , Mandei Jose M. , Mandelbrot Laurent , Manetta Frank , Mankikian Julie , Manning Edmund , Manuel Aldric , Malaque Ceila Maria Sant‘Ana , Marino Daniel , Marino Flávio , Markowicz Samuel , Marques Ana , Marquis Catherine , Marsh Brian , Marshal Megan , Marshall John , Martelli Celina Turchi , Martin Dori-Ann , Martin Emily , Martin-Blondel Guillaume , Martin-Loeches Ignacio , Martinot Martin , Martín-Quiros Alejandro , Martinez F. Eduardo , Martins Ana , Martins João , Martins Nuno , Rego Caroline Martins , Martucci Gennaro , Martynenko Olga , Marwali Eva Miranda , Marzukie Marsilla , Jimenez Juan Fernado Masa , Maslove David , Mason Sabina , Nor Basri Mat , Matan Moshe , Mathieu Daniel , Mattei Mathieu , Matulevics Romans , Maulin Laurence , Maxwell Michael , Maynar Javier , Mayxay Mayfong , Mazzoni Thierry , Sweeney Lisa Mc , McCanny Peter , McArthur Colin , McCarthy Aine , McCarthy Anne , McCloskey Colin , McConnochie Rachael , McDermott Sherry , McDonald Sarah E. , McElroy Aine , McElwee Samuel , McEneany Victoria , McEvoy Natalie , McGeer Allison , McKay Chris , McKeown Johnny , McLean Kenneth A. , McNally Paul , McNicholas Bairbre , McPartlan Elaine , Meaney Edel , Mear-Passard Cécile , Mechlin Maggie , Mehkri Omar , Mele Ferruccio , Melo Luis , Mendes Joao Joao , Menkiti Ogechukwu , Menon Kusum , Mentré France , Mentzer Alexander J. , Mercier Emmanuelle , Mercier Noémie , Merckx Antoine , Mergeay-Fabre Mayka , Mergler Blake , Merson Laura , Meschi Tiziana , Mesquita António , Meta Roberta , Metwally Osama , Meybeck Agnès , Meyer Dan , Meynert Alison M. , Meysonnier Vanina , Meziane Amina , Mezidi Mehdi , Michelanglei Céline , Michelet Isabelle , Mihelis Efstathia , Mihnovit Vladislav , Miller Jennene , Miranda-Maldonado Hugo , Misnan Nor Arisah , Mohamed Nik Nur Eliza , Mohamed Tahira Jamal , Moin Asma , Molinos Elena , Molloy Brenda , Mone Mary , Monteiro Agostinho , Montes Claudia , Montrucchio Giorgia , Moore Sarah , Moore Shona C. , Cely Lina Morales , Moro Lucia , Morton Ben , Motherway Catherine , Motos Ana , Mouquet Hugo , Perrot Clara Mouton , Moyet Julien , Mudara Caroline , Muh Ng Yong , Muhamad Dzawani , Mullaert Jimmy , Müller Fredrik , Müller Karl Erik , Munblit Daniel , Murphy Aisling , Murphy Lorna , Murris Marlène , Murthy Srinivas , Musaab Himed , Mutti Carlotta , Muvindi Himasha , Muyandy Gugapriyaa , Myrodia Dimitra Melia , Mohd-Hanafiah Farah Nadia , Nagpal Dave , Nagrebetsky Alex , Narasimhan Mangala , Narayanan Nageswaran , Nazerali-Maitland Alasdair , Neant Nadège , Neb Holger , Necsoi Coca , Nekliudov Nikita , Nelwan Erni , Neto Raul , Neumann Emily , Ng Pauline Yeung , Nghi Anthony , Nguyen Duc , Choileain Orna Ni , Leathlobhair Niamh Ni , Nichol Alistair D , Nitayavardhana Prompak , Nonas Stephanie , Noordin Nurul Amani Mohd , Noret Marion , Norharizam Nurul Faten Izzati , Norman Lisa , North Anita , Notari Alessandra , Noursadeghi Mahdad , Nowicka Karolina , Nowinski Adam , Nseir Saad , Nunez Jose I , Nurnaningsih Nurnaningsih , Nusantara Dwi Utomo , Nyamankolly Elsa , Brien Fionnuala O , Callaghan Annmarie O , O’Callaghan Annmarie , Occhipinti Giovanna , OConnor Derbrenn , O’Donnell Max , Ogston Tawnya , Ogura Takayuki , Oh Tak-Hyuk , O’Halloran Sophie , O’Hearn Katie , Ohshimo Shinichiro , Oldakowska Agnieszka , Oliveira João , Oliveira Larissa , Olliaro Piero L. , O’Neil Conar , Ong David S. Y. , Ong Jee Yan , Oosthuyzen Wilna , Opavsky Anne , Openshaw Peter , Orozco-Chamorro Claudia Milena , Ortoleva Jamel , Osatnik Javier , O’Shea Linda , O’Sullivan Miriam , Othman Siti Zubaidah , Ouamara Nadia , Ouissa Rachida , Oziol Eric , Pagadoy Maïder , Pages Justine , Palacios Amanda , Palmarini Massimo , Panarello Giovanna , Panda Prasan Kumar , Pang Lai Hui , Panigada Mauro , Pansu Nathalie , Papadopoulos Aurélie , Parducci Paolo , Oña Edwin Fernando Paredes , Parke Rachael , Parker Melissa , Pasquier Jérémie , Pastene Bruno , Patauner Fabian , Patel Drashti , Pathmanathan Mohan Dass , Patrão Luís , Patricio Patricia , Patrier Juliette , Patrizi Laura , Patterson Lisa , Paul Christelle , Paul Mical , Paulos Jorge , Paxton William A. , Payen Jean-François , Peake Sandra L , Peariasamy Kalaiarasu , Peek Giles J. , Peelman Florent , Peiffer-Smadja Nathan , Peigne Vincent , Pejkovska Mare , Pelosi Paolo , Peltan Ithan D. , Pereira Rui , Perez Daniel , Periel Luis , Perpoint Thomas , Pesenti Antonio , Pestre Vincent , Petrou Lenka , Petrovic Michele , Petrov-Sanchez Ventzislava , Pettersen Frank Olav , Peytavin Gilles , Pharand Scott , Phonemixay Ooyanong , Phoutthavong Soulichanya , Piagnerelli Michael , Picard Walter , Picone Olivier , de Piero Maria , Pierobon Carola , Piersma Djura , Pimentel Carlos , Pinto Raquel , Piquard Valentine , Pires Catarina , Pironneau Isabelle , Piroth Lionel , Pisi Roberta , Pitaloka Ayodhia , Piubelli Chiara , Pius Riinu , Plantier Laurent , Png Hon Shen , Poissy Julien , Pokeerbux Ryadh , Pokorska-Spiewak Maria , Poli Sergio , Pollakis Georgios , Ponscarme Diane , Popielska Jolanta , Porto Diego Bastos , Post Andra-Maris , Postma Douwe F. , Povoa Pedro , Póvoas Diana , Powis Jeff , Prapa Sofia , Praphasiri Viladeth , Preau Sébastien , Prebensen Christian , Preiser Jean-Charles , Prinssen Anton , Pritchard Mark G. , Priyadarshani Gamage Dona Dilanthi , Proença Lucia , Pudota Sravya , Puéchal Oriane , Semedi Bambang Pujo , Puntoni Matteo , Purcell Gregory , Quesada Luisa , Quinones-Cardona Vilmaris , Quist-Paulsen Else , Quraishi Mohammed , Rabaa Maia , Rabaud Christian , Rafael Aldo , Rafiq Marie , Ragazzo Gabrielle , Rahardjani Mutia , Rahman Ahmad Kashfi Haji Ab , Rahman Rozanah Abd , Rainieri Fernando , Rajahram Giri Shan , Ramakrishnan Nagarajan , Ramalho José , Ramli Ahmad Afiq , Rammaert Blandine , Ramos Grazielle Viana , Rampello Anais , Rangappa Rajavardhan , Ranjan Ritika , Ranza Elena , Rapp Christophe , Rashan Aasiyah , Rashan Thalha , Rasmin Menaldi , Rätsep Indrek , Rau Cornelius , Rausa Francesco , Ravi Tharmini , Real Andre , Rebaudet Stanislas , Redl Sarah , Reeve Brenda , Reid Liadain , Reikvam Dag Henrik , Reis Renato , Rello Jordi , Remppis Jonathan , Remy Martine , Ren Hongru , Renk Hanna , Resseguier Anne-Sophie , Revest Matthieu , Rewa Oleksa , Reyes Luis Felipe , Reyes Tiago , Ribeiro Maria Ines , Ricchiuto Antonia , Richardson David , Richardson Denise , Richier Laurent , Ridzuan Siti Nurul Atikah Ahmad , Riera Jordi , Rios Ana L , Rishu Asgar , Rispal Patrick , Risso Karine , Nuñez Maria Angelica Rivera , Rizer Nicholas , Robba Chiara , Roberto André , Robertson David L. , Robineau Olivier , Roche-Campo Ferran , Rodari Paola , Rodeia Simão , Abreu Julia Rodriguez , Roessler Bernhard , Roger Claire , Roger Pierre-Marie , Roilides Emmanuel , Rojek Amanda , Romaru Juliette , Roncon-Albuquerque Roberto , Roriz Mélanie , Rosa-Calatrava Manuel , Rose Michael , Rosenberger Dorothea , Rossanese Andrea , Rossetti Matteo , Rossi Sandra , Rossignol Bénédicte , Rossignol Patrick , Rousset Stella , Roy Carine , Roze Benoît , Rusmawatiningtyas Desy , Russell Clark D. , Ryan Maeve , Ryan Maria , Ryckaert Steffi , Holten Aleksander Rygh , Saba Isabela , Sacchelli Luca , Sadat Musharaf , Sahraei Valla , Saidani Nadia , Saint-Gilles Maximilien , Sakiyalak Pranya , Salazar Leonardo , Sales Gabriele , Sallaberry Stéphane , Gandonniere Charlotte Salmon , Salvator Hélène , Sanchez Olivier , Sanchez-Miralles Angel , Sancho-Shimizu Vanessa , Sandhu Gyan , Sandhu Zulfiqar , Sandrine Pierre-François , Sandulescu Oana , Santos Marlene , Sarfo-Mensah Shirley , Banheiro Bruno Sarmento , Sarmiento Iam Claire E. , Sarton Benjamine , Satya Ankana , Satyapriya Sree , Satyawati Rumaisah , Saviciute Egle , Savvidou Parthena , Saw Yen Tsen , Schaffer Justin , Schermer Tjard , Scherpereel Arnaud , Schneider Marion , Schroll Stephan , Schwameis Michael , Schwartz Gary , Scicluna Brendan , Scott Janet T. , Scott-Brown James , Sedillot Nicholas , Seitz Tamara , Selvarajoo Mageswari , Semaille Caroline , Semple Malcolm G. , Senian Rasidah Bt , Senneville Eric , Sepulveda Claudia , Sequeira Filipa , Sequeira Tânia , Neto Ary Serpa , Shadowitz Ellen , Shahidan Syamin Asyraf , Shamsah Mohammad , Shankar Anuraj , Sharjeel Shaikh , Sharma Pratima , Shaw Catherine A. , Shaw Victoria , Shetty Rajesh Mohan , Shetty Rohan , Shi Haixia , Shiban Nisreen , Shiekh Mohiuddin , Shiga Takuya , Shime Nobuaki , Shimizu Hiroaki , Shimizu Keiki , Shrapnel Sally , Shum Hoi Ping , Mohammed Nassima Si , Siang Ng Yong , Sibiude Jeanne , Sibounheuang Bountoy , Siddiqui Atif , Sigfrid Louise , Sillaots Piret , Silva Catarina , Silva Maria Joao , Silva Rogério , Heng Benedict Sim Lim , Sin Wai Ching , Sinatti Dario , Singh Budha Charan , Singh Punam , Sitompul Pompini Agustina , Sivam Karisha , Skogen Vegard , Smith Sue , Smood Benjamin , Smyth Coilin , Smyth Michelle , Snacken Morgane , So Dominic , Soh Tze Vee , Solomon Joshua , Solomon Tom , Somers Emily , Sommet Agnès , Song Myung Jin , Song Rima , Song Tae , Chia Jack Song , Sonntagbauer Michael , Soom Azlan Mat , Sotto Albert , Soum Edouard , Sousa Ana Chora , Sousa Marta , Uva Maria Sousa , Souza-Dantas Vicente , Sperry Alexandra , Spinuzza Elisabetta , Darshana B. P. Sanka Ruwan Sri , Sriskandan Shiranee , Stabler Sarah , Staudinger Thomas , Stecher Stephanie-Susanne , Steinsvik Trude , Stienstra Ymkje , Stiksrud Birgitte , Stolz Eva , Stone Amy , Streinu-Cercel Adrian , Streinu-Cercel Anca , Stuart Ami , Stuart David , Su Richa , Subekti Decy , Suen Gabriel , Suen Jacky Y. , Sultana Asfia , Summers Charlotte , Supic Dubravka , Suppiah Deepashankari , Surovcová Magdalena , Suwarti Atie , Svistunov Andrey , Syahrin Sarah , Syrigos Konstantinos , Sztajnbok Jaques , Szuldrzynski Konstanty , Tabrizi Shirin , Taccone Fabio S. , Tagherset Lysa , Taib Shahdattul Mawarni , Talarek Ewa , Taleb Sara , Talsma Jelmer , Tamisier Renaud , Tampubolon Maria Lawrensia , Tan Kim Keat , Tan Le Van , Tan Yan Chyi , Tanaka Clarice , Tanaka Hiroyuki , Tanaka Taku , Taniguchi Hayato , Tardivon Coralie , Tattevin Pierre , Taufik M Azhari , Tawfik Hassan , Tedder Richard S. , Tee Tze Yuan , Teixeira João , Tejada Sofia , Tellier Marie-Capucine , Teoh Sze Kye , Teotonio Vanessa , Téoulé François , Terpstra Pleun , Terrier Olivier , Terzi Nicolas , Tessier-Grenier Hubert , Tey Adrian , Thabit Alif Adlan Mohd , Tham Zhang Duan , Thangavelu Suvintheran , Thibault Vincent , Thiberville Simon-Djamel , Thill Benoît , Thirumanickam Jananee , Thompson Shaun , Thomson David , Thomson Emma C. , Thurai Surain Raaj Thanga , Thuy Duong Bich , Thwaites Ryan S. , Ticinesi Andrea , Tierney Paul , Tieroshyn Vadim , Timashev Peter S , Timsit Jean-François , Tissot Noémie , Toh Jordan Zhien Yang , Toki Maria , Tonby Kristian , Tonnii Sia Loong , Torre Marta , Torres Antoni , Torres Margarida , Santos-Olmo Rosario Maria Torres , Torres-Zevallos Hernando , Towers Michael , Trapani Tony , Trieu Huynh Trung , Trioux Théo , Tromeur Cécile , Trontzas Ioannis , Trouillon Tiffany , Truong Jeanne , Tual Christelle , Tubiana Sarah , Tuite Helen , Turgeon Alexis F. , Turmel Jean-Marie , Turtle Lance C. W. , Tveita Anders , Twardowski Pawel , Uchiyama Makoto , Udayanga PG Ishara , Udy Andrew , Ullrich Roman , Uribe Alberto , Usman Asad , Uyeki Timothy M. , Vajdovics Cristinava , Valentini Piero , Val-Flores Luís , Valran Amélie , Valzano Ilaria , de Velde Stijn Van , Berge Marcel van den , Feltz Machteld Van der , Palen Job van der , Valk Paul van der , Vekens Nicky Van Der , Voort Peter Van der , Werf Sylvie Van Der , Gulik Laura van , Hattem Jarne Van , Netten Carolien van , Greve Frank van Someren , Twillert Gitte Van , Veen Ilonka van , Willigen Hugo Van , Vanel Noémie , Vanoverschelde Henk , Varghese Pooja , Varrone Michael , Vasudayan Shoban Raj , Vauchy Charline , Veeran Shaminee , Veislinger Aurélie , Vencken Sebastian , Ventura Sara , Verbon Annelies , Vickers James , Vidal José Ernesto , Vieira César , Villanueva Joy Ann , Villar Judit , Villeneuve Pierre-Marc , Villoldo Andrea , Chau Nguyen Van Vinh , Vishwanathan Gayatri , Visseaux Benoit , Visser Hannah , Vitiello Chiara , Vongsouvath Manivanh , Vonkeman Harald , Vuotto Fanny , Wahab Noor Hidayu , Wahab Suhaila Abdul , Wahid Nadirah Abdul , Wainstein Marina , Webb Steve , Wei Jia , Weil Katharina , Wen Tan Pei , Wesselius Sanne , West T. Eoin , Wham Murray , Whelan Bryan , Wicky Paul Henri , Wiedemann Aurélie , Wijaya Surya Otto , Wille Keith , Willems Sue , Williams Patricia J , Williams Virginie , Wils Evert-Jan , Yiu Ng Wing , Wong Calvin , Wong Teck Fung , Wong Xin Ci , Wong Yew Sing , Wright Natalie , Xian Gan Ee , Xian Lim Saio , Xuan Kuan Pei , Xynogalas Ioannis , Yacoub Sophie , Yakop Siti Rohani Binti Mohd , Yamazaki Masaki , Yarad Elizabeth , Yazdanpanah Yazdan , Hing Nicholas Yee Liang , Yelnik Cécile , Yeoh Chian Hui , Yerkovich Stephanie , Yiaye Touxiong , Yokoyama Toshiki , Yonis Hodane , Yousif Obada , Yuliarto Saptadi , Zaaqoq Akram , Zabbe Marion , Zabert Gustavo E , Zacharowski Kai , Zahid Masliza , Zahran Maram , Zaidan Nor Zaila Binti , Zambon Maria , Zambrano Miguel , Zanella Alberto , Zawadka Konrad , Zaynah Nurul , Zayyad Hiba , Zoufaly Alexander , Zucman David ,   Mazankowski Heart Institute
Published: July 2024

By September 2022, more than 600 million cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection have been reported globally, resulting in over 6.5 million deaths. COVID-19 mortality risk estimators are often, however, developed with small unrepresentative samples and with methodological limitations. It is highly important to develop predictive tools for pulmonary embolism (PE) in COVID-19 patients as one of the most severe preventable complications of COVID-19. Early recognition can help provide life-saving targeted anti-coagulation therapy right at admission. Using a dataset of more than 800,000 COVID-19 patients from an international cohort, we propose a cost-sensitive gradient-boosted machine learning model that predicts occurrence of PE and death at admission. Logistic regression, Cox proportional hazards models, and Shapley values were used to identify key predictors for PE and death. Our prediction model had a test AUROC of 75.9% and 74.2%, and sensitivities of 67.5% and 72.7% for PE and all-cause mortality respectively on a highly diverse and held-out test set. The PE prediction model was also evaluated on patients in UK and Spain separately with test results of 74.5% AUROC, 63.5% sensitivity and 78.9% AUROC, 95.7% sensitivity. Age, sex, region of admission, comorbidities (chronic cardiac and pulmonary disease, dementia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, obesity, smoking), and symptoms (any, confusion, chest pain, fatigue, headache, fever, muscle or joint pain, shortness of breath) were the most important clinical predictors at admission. Age, overall presence of symptoms, shortness of breath, and hypertension were found to be key predictors for PE using our extreme gradient boosted model. This analysis based on the, until now, largest global dataset for this set of problems can inform hospital prioritisation policy and guide long term clinical research and decision-making for COVID-19 patients globally. Our machine learning model developed from an international cohort can serve to better regulate hospital risk prioritisation of at-risk patients.