bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Deauville (1859-1875), une histoire d'entreprise
Authors: Stoskopf Nicolas
Published: February 2015

Bien informés du contexte local, le docteur Olliffe et Armand Donon, respectivement médecin et banquier du duc de Morny, acquièrent en 1859-1860 200 ha de marais en déshérence face à Trouville. L’objectif est de construire une ville nouvelle articulée autour de trois pôles qui portent le sceau de Morny : le casino en bord de mer, l’hippodrome au débouché du pays d’Auge et un bassin à flot proche de la gare, reliée à Paris. Les villas luxueuses construites sur la Terrasse et la qualité de leurs propriétaires contribuent à la création d’une image de marque, celle d’une villégiature élégante, un « Bade marin, un Brighton français ». Les promoteurs attendent que cette image soit reconnue et diffusée par la presse pour créer en 1863-1864 des sociétés immobilières et une banque locale. Mais l’exploitation est contrariée par la mort de Morny en 1865, la guerre et la chute de l’Empire en 1870 , le recul du rivage en 1874-1875. La ville reste inachevée. Paradoxalement, la spéculation tourne au fiasco, mais le plan d’urbanisme, la liaison ferroviaire avec Paris, la construction d’un hippodrome et le standing des villas sont des éléments déterminants sur le long terme pour l’avenir de la station.
Urbanisation de la Côte Fleurie
Authors: Hébert Didier
Published: February 2015

Prépondérante dans l’histoire de la villégiature balnéaire, La Côte Fleurie en Normandie comprend encore une densité remarquable d’édifices et de villes nés au XIX e siècle d’un engouement inédit et précoce pour les bains de mer. Là vont apparaître des villes nouvelles dédiées presque exclusivement aux loisirs balnéaires, créées de façon empirique à partir de villages de pêcheurs, ou entièrement planifiées sur des territoires vierges, inventant un urbanisme novateur et des mécanismes élaborés d’appropriation foncière. Les plus prestigieuses stations fondées ex-nihilo durant le Second Empire sont organisées comme des villes-jardins tournées vers la mer, selon des normes urbaines originales. Elles s’inspirent de l’urbanisme classique français, très ordonné, ou au contraire du modèle plus irrégulier et pittoresque issu du jardin à l’anglaise, cadre paysager déjà expérimenté aux abords de Paris. Au début du XX e siècle, tandis que ces stations-phares poursuivent leur essor, l’éclosion de sites plus modestes basés sur une vie simple proche de la nature traduit un retour aux sources de la villégiature balnéaire
Des villas pivotantes aux solariums tournants
Authors: Raynal Cécile , Lefebvre Thierry
Published: February 2015

L’idée de faire tourner des habitations « hygiéniques » et des galeries de cure sanatoriale pour suivre le mouvement apparent du soleil, fait son chemin au début du XX e siècle. Ces innovations, forcément dispendieuses, parviennent parfois à s’imposer dans un contexte économique contraignant. L’article s’intéresse tout particulièrement à trois initiatives qui connaîtront des destins différents : la « Villa Tournesol » du Dr Pellegrin, le « Palais magique » des architectes Lécuyer et Jubault, et les « Solariums tournants » du Dr Saidman. Ces derniers, désormais bien documentés par les historiens, constituent certainement une des plus grandes réussites de cette architecture non conventionnelle.
Trouver l'extraordinaire dans l'infra-ordinaire : pour une mystique profane
Authors: Filliot Philippe
Published: February 2015

Mon propos est de montrer que la mystique est une voie possible pour « re-penser l’ordinaire ». Contrairement aux représentations habituelles, la vie spirituelle laisse en effet une place importante au monde quotidien, dans ses aspects les plus infimes, et, en apparence, insignifiants. L’essentiel peut pourtant résider dans les petites choses. La banalité devient alors le lieu d’une expérience sacramentelle qui ne renvoie pas à un « au-delà » mais qui se vit concrètement dans le réel « tel qu’il est ». Transcendance dans l’immanence qui renvoie à certaines traditions spirituelles orientales et occidentales, mais aussi, en dehors des religions, à la littérature et aux arts qui laïcisent la dimension sacrée, depuis en particulier le romantisme jusqu’à notre postmodernité.
Éléments pour une poétique critique du monde industriel
Authors: Giroux Dalie
Published: February 2015

Ce texte propose une réflexion critique sur les possibilités poétiques d’habitation dans les paysages postindustriels. À partir d’une relecture de la notion de déracinement chez Heidegger et de la nostalgie bachelardienne de la maison traditionnelle, il s’agit de visiter certains lieux d’habitation contemporains pour en explorer la signification poétique : la tour d’habitation, l’autoroute, le métro, les zones postindustrielles.
« Street Art » ou comment rêver l'ordinaire urbain
Authors: Billereau Sébastien
Published: February 2015

Notre propos, en ce qu’il traite de l’espace urbain au travers de ses plasticités, de ses représentations et des actes artistiques y évoluant, appelle une démarche qui nous fera évoluer d’un point de vue intérieur, sensitif, fictionnel de l’espace urbain quotidien, à l’étude des actions artistiques qui peuvent intégrer ce milieu propice aux visions, à savoir l’art urbain et ses variations plastiques. Chaque situation de l’ordinaire de la ville serait à ressentir comme un champ de psychogéographie, une épistémologie du temps et de l’espace quotidien. Elle apparaît en tant que milieu ambiant pour un jeu d’événement suivant une logique propre toute nourrie des réflexes et des systèmes de la communication visuelle. Alliance d’un fond et d’une forme, les contre-langages artistiques laissent à chaque fois une petite entaille dans l’immense spectacle de la vie sociale. Tel un point de condensation, le phénomène de l’art urbain aspire à pervertir positivement un espace ordinaire. Désormais généralisée à l’échelle de la ville, voire d’un continent, l’action graffiti devient de ce fait planifiée et transformée en une sorte de grille de jeu fictive de l’alter quotidien. Les gestes plastiques en commandent la topographie et deviennent l’échappatoire des espaces urbains. C’est en interrogeant eux-mêmes la ville qu’ils peuvent en concevoir de multiples parce que.
Host–Parasite Behavioral Interactions in a Recently Introduced, Whooping Crane Population
Authors: King Richard S. , McKann Patrick C. , Gray Brian R. , Putnam Michael S.
Published: February 2015

The whooping crane Grus americana has a long conservation history, but despite multiple attempts across North America, introduction success is lacking. Recently introduced, captively reared whooping cranes have had periods of poor reproductive performance in central Wisconsin that sometimes coincided with black fly (Diptera: Simuliidae) emergences. Sandhill crane Grus canadensis reproductive performance in central Wisconsin is approximately double that of whooping cranes. We used comfort behaviors as a measure of black fly harassment to infer whether behavioral differences existed between nesting sandhill cranes and nesting whooping cranes and between successful and unsuccessful whooping crane pairs. To further explore the interaction between black flies and incubating whooping cranes, we examined differences in behaviors between incubating birds and their off-nest mates. Compared to their off-nest mates, incubating whooping cranes exhibited elevated comfort behaviors, suggesting a bird at a nest may experience greater harassment from black flies. Sandhill cranes had elevated head-flicks over whooping cranes. Whooping cranes exhibited more head-rubs than sandhill cranes, and successful whooping crane pairs had elevated head-rubs over pairs that deserted their nests. Behavioral differences between sandhill cranes and whooping cranes as well as differences in reproductive performance, could be explained by exposure to local breeding conditions. Whereas sandhill cranes have nested in the area for hundreds, if not thousands, of years, whooping cranes were only recently introduced to the area. Behavioral differences between the species as well as those between successful and unsuccessful whooping crane pairs could also be explained by the effect of captive exposure, which could affect all whooping crane introductions.
’n Teoretiese besinning oor die implikasies van die filosofie van tegnologie vir kriteria vir vakkurrikulumontwikkeling en -evaluering
Authors: Ankiewicz Piet
Published: February 2015

Technology education is globally still relatively new, and it lacks a substantive research base, a well-established classroom pedagogy and a scientifically founded, subject-based philosophical framework that may serve as a directive for related aspects. Technology is also a developing school subject with no equivalent academic discipline upon which curriculum development and classroom pedagogy may rely. The Curriculum and Assessment Policy Statement (CAPS) for Technology in the Senior Phase was officially implemented in 2014. However, responses to the intended or specified curriculum, either positive or negative, are often elicited from various stakeholders and interest groups. In the absence of philosophical-founded criteria for the development and evaluation of an intended technology curriculum, it is often unclear whether such responses are justified. Subsequently it is impossible to make fair judgments about such subject curricula. Based on Mitcham’s framework, the literature reports on a philosophical framework that is directive for technology classroom pedagogy, technology teacher education and Science, Technology and Society Studies (STS). The purpose of the article is to investigate how a scientifically founded, philosophical framework of technology can be directive for the development and evaluation of the intended technology curricula. The following research question served as point of departure for the theoretical reflection: Based on the four modes of the manifestation of technology – namely as object, knowledge, activity, and volition – which scientifically founded criteria can be deduced to be applied as part of the development and evaluation of intended technology curricula? In answering the research question it is important to point out that curriculum developers and evaluators should ensure that they take note of the philosophical framework for technology which guides subject-curriculum development and evaluation. A fourfold set of applicable criteria, based on the four manifestations of technology, have been deduced accordingly.
Short Communication: New alleles at the BoLA-DQA1 locus in Holstein–Fresian cattle
Authors: Kułaj Dominika , Pokorska Joanna , Ormian Marian , Dusza Magdalena
Published: February 2015

Kułajaj, D., Pokorska, J., Ormian, M. and Dusza, M. 2015. Short Communication: New alleles at the BoLA-DQA1 locus in Holstein Fresian cattle. Can. J. Anim. Sci. 95: 161–164. The aim of the study was to analyze genetic polymorphism at locus BoLA-DQA1 in Polish Holstein-Friesian cattle, using next generation sequencing technology (Miseq sequencer – Illumina). In the studied cattle population we identified 14 alleles, of which three were determined for the first time (BoLA-DQA1*0106, BoLA-DQA1*3201, BoLA-DQA1*3301). The frequencies of these alleles were respectively: 0.0423, 0.0282, 0.0282. At locus BoLA-DQA1 the highest frequency was found for the BoLA-DQA1*10011 and BoLA-DQA1*0101 alleles and their frequencies were respectively: 0.3592 and 0.2606. The frequencies of other alleles identified in the studied population ranged from 0.0070 to 0.0704. The results obtained in this study indicate that the BoLA-DQA1 locus is highly polymorphic and new alleles are still identifiable.
corRECTreatment: A web-based decision support tool for rectal cancer treatment that uses the analytic hierarchy process and decision tree
Authors: Dicle O. , Sökmen S. , Çelikoğlu C.C. , Suner A. , Karakülah G.
Published: February 2015

Background: The selection of appropriate rectal cancer treatment is a complex multi-criteria decision making process, in which clinical decision support systems might be used to assist and enrich physicians’ decision making.

Objective: The objective of the study was to develop a web-based clinical decision support tool for physicians in the selection of potentially beneficial treatment options for patients with rectal cancer.

Methods: The updated decision model contained 8 and 10 criteria in the first and second steps respectively. The decision support model, developed in our previous study by combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method which determines the priority of criteria and decision tree that formed using these priorities, was updated and applied to 388 patients data collected retrospectively. Later, a web-based decision support tool named corRECTreatment was developed. The compatibility of the treatment recommendations by the expert opinion and the decision support tool was examined for its consistency. Two surgeons were requested to recommend a treatment and an overall survival value for the treatment among 20 different cases that we selected and turned into a scenario among the most common and rare treatment options in the patient data set.

Results: In the AHP analyses of the criteria, it was found that the matrices, generated for both decision steps, were consistent (consistency ratio<0.1). Depending on the decisions of experts, the consistency value for the most frequent cases was found to be 80% for the first decision step and 100% for the second decision step. Similarly, for rare cases consistency was 50% for the first decision step and 80% for the second decision step.

Conclusions: The decision model and corRECTreatment, developed by applying these on real patient data, are expected to provide potential users with decision support in rectal cancer treatment processes and facilitate them in making projections about treatment options.

Citation: Suner A, Karakülah G, Dicle O, Sökmen S, Çelikoglu CC. corRECTreatment: A web-based decision support tool for rectal cancer treatment that uses the analytic hierarchy process and decision tree. Appl Clin Inf 2015; 6: 56–74

http://dx.doi.org/10.4338/ACI-2014-10-RA-0087
Can positive matrix factorization help to understand patterns of organic trace gases at the continental Global Atmosphere Watch site Hohenpeissenberg?
Authors: Leuchner M. , Gubo S. , Schunk C. , Wastl C. , Kirchner M. , Menzel A. , Plass-Dülmer C.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. From the rural Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) site Hohenpeissenberg in the pre-alpine area of southern Germany, a data set of 24 C2–C8 non-methane hydrocarbons over a period of 7 years was analyzed. Receptor modeling was performed by positive matrix factorization (PMF) and the resulting factors were interpreted with respect to source profiles and photochemical aging. Differing from other studies, no direct source attribution was intended because, due to chemistry along transport, mass conservation from source to receptor is not given. However, at remote sites such as Hohenpeissenberg, the observed patterns of non-methane hydrocarbons can be derived from combinations of factors determined by PMF. A six-factor solution showed high stability and the most plausible results. In addition to a biogenic and a background factor of very stable compounds, four additional anthropogenic factors were resolved that could be divided into two short- and two long-lived patterns from evaporative sources/natural gas leakage and incomplete combustion processes. The volume or mass contribution at the site over the entire period was, in decreasing order, from the following factor categories: background, gas leakage and long-lived evaporative, residential heating and long-lived combustion, short-lived evaporative, short-lived combustion, and biogenic. The importance with respect to reactivity contribution was generally in reverse order, with the biogenic and the short-lived combustion factors contributing most. The seasonality of the factors was analyzed and compared to results of a simple box model using constant emissions and the photochemical decay calculated from the measured annual cycles of OH radicals and ozone. Two of the factors, short-lived combustion and gas leakage/long-lived evaporative, showed winter/summer ratios of about 9 and 7, respectively, as expected from constant source estimations. Contrarily, the short-lived evaporative emissions were about 3 times higher in summer than in winter, while residential heating/long-lived combustion emissions were about 2 times higher in winter than in summer.
Multichannel analysis of correlation length of SEVIRI images around ground-based cloud observatories to determine their representativeness
Authors: Slobodda J. , Hünerbein A. , Lindstrot R. , Preusker R. , Ebell K. , Fischer J.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. Images of measured radiance in different channels of the geostationary Meteosat-9 SEVIRI instrument are analysed with respect to the representativeness of the observations of eight cloud observatories in Europe (e.g. measurements from cloud radars or microwave radiometers). Cloudy situations are selected to get a time series for every pixel in a 300 km × 300 km area centred around each ground station. Then a cross correlation of each time series to the pixel nearest to the corresponding ground site is calculated. In the end a correlation length is calculated to define the representativeness. It is found that measurements in the visible and near infrared channels, which respond to cloud physical properties, are correlated in an area with a 1 to 4 km radius, while the thermal channels, that correspond to cloud top temperature, are correlated to a distance of about 20 km. This also points to a higher variability of the cloud microphysical properties inside a cloud than of the cloud top temperature. The correlation length even increases for the channels at 6.2, 7.3 and 9.7 μm. They respond to radiation from the upper atmospheric layers emitted by atmospheric gases and higher level clouds, which are more homogeneous than low-level clouds. Additionally, correlations at different distances, corresponding to the grid box sizes of forecast models, were compared. The results suggest the possibility of comparisons between instantaneous cloud observations from ground sites and regional forecast models and ground-based measurements. For larger distances typical for global models the correlations decrease, especially for short-wave measurements and corresponding cloud products. By comparing daily means, the correlation length of each station is increased to about 3 to 10 times the value of instantaneous measurements and also the comparability to models grows.
First continuous measurements of δ18O-CO2 in air with a Fourier transform infrared spectrometer
Authors: Vardag S. N. , Hammer S. , Sabasch M. , Griffith D. W. T. , Levin I.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. The continuous in situ measurement of δ18O in atmospheric CO2 opens a new door to differentiating between CO2 source and sink components with high temporal resolution. Continuous 13C–CO2 measurement systems have already been commercially available for some time, but until now, only few instruments have been able to provide a continuous measurement of the oxygen isotope ratio in CO2. Besides precise 13C/12C observations, the Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer is also able to measure the 18O / 16O ratio in CO2, but the precision and accuracy of the measurements have not yet been evaluated. Here we present a first analysis of δ18O-CO2 (and δ13C-CO2) measurements with the FTIR analyser in Heidelberg. We used Allan deviation to determine the repeatability of δ18O-CO2 measurements and found that it decreases from 0.25‰ for 10 min averages to about 0.1‰ after 2 h and remains at that value up to 24 h. We evaluated the measurement precision over a 10-month period (intermediate measurement precision) using daily working gas measurements and found that our spectrometer measured δ18O-CO2 to better than 0.3‰ at a temporal resolution of less than 10 min. The compatibility of our FTIR-spectrometric measurements to isotope-ratio mass-spectrometric (IRMS) measurements was determined by comparing FTIR measurements of cylinder gases and ambient air with IRMS measurements of flask samples, filled with gases of the same cylinders or collected from the same ambient air intake. Two-sample t tests revealed that, at the 0.01 significance level, the FTIR and the IRMS measurements do not differ significantly from each other and are thus compatible. We describe two weekly episodes of ambient air measurements, one in winter and one in summer, and discuss what potential insights and new challenges combined highly resolved CO2, δ13C-CO2 and δ18O-CO2 records may provide in terms of better understanding regional scale continental carbon exchange processes.
Tidal signatures of the thermospheric mass density and zonal wind at midlatitude: CHAMP and GRACE observations
Authors: Xiong C. , Zhou Y.-L. , Lühr H. , Ma S.-Y.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. By using the accelerometer measurements from CHAMP and GRACE satellites, the tidal signatures of the thermospheric mass density and zonal wind at midlatitudes have been analyzed in this study. The results show that the mass density and zonal wind at southern midlatitudes are dominated by a longitudinal wave-1 pattern. The most prominent tidal components in mass density and zonal wind are the diurnal tides D0 and DW2 and the semidiurnal tides SW1 and SW3. This is consistent with the tidal signatures in the F region electron density at midlatitudes as reported by Xiong and Lühr (2014). These same tidal components are observed both in the thermospheric and ionospheric quantities, supporting a mechanism that the non-migrating tides in the upper atmosphere are excited in situ by ion–neutral interactions at midlatitudes, consistent with the modeling results of Jones Jr. et al. (2013). We regard the thermospheric dynamics as the main driver for the electron density tidal structures. An example is the in-phase variation of D0 between electron density and mass density in both hemispheres. Further research including coupled atmospheric models is probably needed for explaining the similarities and differences between thermospheric and ionospheric tidal signals at midlatitudes.
Evaluating Southern Ocean biological production in two ocean biogeochemical models on daily to seasonal timescales using satellite chlorophyll and O2 / Ar observations
Authors: Jonsson B. F. , Doney S. , Dunne J. , Bender M. L.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. We assess the ability of ocean biogeochemical models to represent seasonal structures in biomass and net community production (NCP) in the Southern Ocean. Two models are compared to observations on daily to seasonal timescales in four different sections of the region. We use daily satellite fields of chlorophyll (Chl) as a proxy for biomass and in situ observations of O2 and Ar supersaturation (ΔO2 / Ar) to estimate NCP. ΔO2 / Ar is converted to the flux of biologically generated O2 from sea to air (O2 bioflux). All data are aggregated to a climatological year with a daily resolution. To account for potential regional differences within the Southern Ocean, we conduct separate analyses of sections south of South Africa, around the Drake Passage, south of Australia, and south of New Zealand. We find that the models simulate the upper range of Chl concentrations well, underestimate spring levels significantly, and show differences in skill between early and late parts of the growing season. While there is a great deal of scatter in the bioflux observations in general, the four sectors each have distinct patterns that the models pick up. Neither model exhibits a significant distinction between the Australian and New Zealand sectors and between the Drake Passage and African sectors. South of 60° S, the models fail to predict the observed extent of biological O2 undersaturation. We suggest that this shortcoming may be due either to problems with the ecosystem dynamics or problems with the vertical transport of oxygen.
Soil carbon and nitrogen erosion in forested catchments: implications for erosion-induced terrestrial carbon sequestration
Authors: Stacy E. , Hart S. C. , Hunsaker C. T. , Johnson D. W. , Berhe A. A.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. Soil erosion plays important roles in organic matter (OM) storage and persistence in dynamic landscapes. The biogeochemical implication of soil erosion has been a focus of a growing number of studies over the last two decades. However, most of the available studies are conducted in agricultural systems or grasslands, and hence very little information is available on rate and nature of soil organic matter (SOM) eroded from forested upland ecosystems. In the southern parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains in California, we determined the rate of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) eroded from two sets of catchments under different climatic conditions to determine how the amount and distribution of precipitation affects lateral distribution of topsoil and associated SOM. We quantified sediment and SOM exported annually (for water years 2005–2011) from four low-order, snow-dominated catchments, and four low-order catchments that receive a mix of rain, and snow and compared it to soil at three different landform positions from the source slopes to determine if there is selective transport of some soil OM components. We found that the amount of sediment exported varied from 0.4 to 177 kg N ha-1, while export of particulate C was between 0.025 and 4.2 kg C ha-1, compared to export of particulate N that was between 0.001 and 0.04 kg ha-1. Sediment yield and composition showed high interannual variation, with higher C and N concentrations in sediment collected in drier years. In our study catchments, erosion laterally mobilized OM-rich topsoil and litter material, some of which readily enters streams owing to the topography in these catchments that includes steep slopes adjacent to stream channels. Annual lateral sediment mass, C, and N fluxes were positively and strongly correlated with stream flows. Our results suggest that variability in climate, represented by stream discharge, is a primary factor controlling the magnitude of C and N eroded from upland temperature forest catchments.
On the sensitivity of urban hydrodynamic modelling to rainfall spatial and temporal resolution
Authors: Bruni G. , Reinoso R. , van de Giesen N. C. , Clemens F. H. L. R. , ten Veldhuis J. A. E.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. Cities are increasingly vulnerable to floods generated by intense rainfall, because of urbanisation of flood-prone areas and ongoing urban densification. Accurate information of convective storm characteristics at high spatial and temporal resolution is a crucial input for urban hydrological models to be able to simulate fast runoff processes and enhance flood prediction in cities. In this paper, a detailed study of the sensitivity of urban hydrodynamic response to high resolution radar rainfall was conducted. Rainfall rates derived from X-band dual polarimetric weather radar were used as input into a detailed hydrodynamic sewer model for an urban catchment in the city of Rotterdam, the Netherlands. The aim was to characterise how the effect of space and time aggregation on rainfall structure affects hydrodynamic modelling of urban catchments, for resolutions ranging from 100 to 2000 m and from 1 to 10 min. Dimensionless parameters were derived to compare results between different storm conditions and to describe the effect of rainfall spatial resolution in relation to storm characteristics and hydrodynamic model properties: rainfall sampling number (rainfall resolution vs. storm size), catchment sampling number (rainfall resolution vs. catchment size), runoff and sewer sampling number (rainfall resolution vs. runoff and sewer model resolution respectively). Results show that for rainfall resolution lower than half the catchment size, rainfall volumes mean and standard deviations decrease as a result of smoothing of rainfall gradients. Moreover, deviations in maximum water depths, from 10 to 30% depending on the storm, occurred for rainfall resolution close to storm size, as a result of rainfall aggregation. Model results also showed that modelled runoff peaks are more sensitive to rainfall resolution than maximum in-sewer water depths as flow routing has a damping effect on in-sewer water level variations. Temporal resolution aggregation of rainfall inputs led to increase in de-correlation lengths and resulted in time shift in modelled flow peaks by several minutes. Sensitivity to temporal resolution of rainfall inputs was low compared to spatial resolution, for the storms analysed in this study.
Scalable statistics of correlated random variables and extremes applied to deep borehole porosities
Authors: Guadagnini A. , Neuman S. P. , Nan T. , Riva M. , Winter C. L.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. We analyze scale-dependent statistics of correlated random hydrogeological variables and their extremes using neutron porosity data from six deep boreholes, in three diverse depositional environments, as example. We show that key statistics of porosity increments behave and scale in manners typical of many earth and environmental (as well as other) variables. These scaling behaviors include a tendency of increments to have symmetric, non-Gaussian frequency distributions characterized by heavy tails that decay with separation distance or lag; power-law scaling of sample structure functions (statistical moments of absolute increments) in midranges of lags; linear relationships between log structure functions of successive orders at all lags, known as extended self-similarity or ESS; and nonlinear scaling of structure function power-law exponents with function order, a phenomenon commonly attributed in the literature to multifractals. Elsewhere we proposed, explored and demonstrated a new method of geostatistical inference that captures all of these phenomena within a unified theoretical framework. The framework views data as samples from random fields constituting scale mixtures of truncated (monofractal) fractional Brownian motion (tfBm) or fractional Gaussian noise (tfGn). Important questions not addressed in previous studies concern the distribution and statistical scaling of extreme incremental values. Of special interest in hydrology (and many other areas) are statistics of absolute increments exceeding given thresholds, known as peaks over threshold or POTs. In this paper we explore the statistical scaling of data and, for the first time, corresponding POTs associated with samples from scale mixtures of tfBm or tfGn. We demonstrate that porosity data we analyze possess properties of such samples and thus follow the theory we proposed. The porosity data are of additional value in revealing a remarkable cross-over from one scaling regime to another at certain lags. The phenomena we uncover are of key importance for the analysis of fluid flow and solute as well as particulate transport in complex hydrogeologic environments.
Model study of the impacts of future climate change on the hydrology of Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna basin
Authors: Masood M. , Yeh P. J.-F. , Hanasaki N. , Takeuchi K.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. The intensity, duration, and geographic extent of floods in Bangladesh mostly depend on the combined influences of three river systems, the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Meghna (GBM). In addition, climate change is likely to have significant effects on the hydrology and water resources of the GBM basin and may ultimately lead to more serious floods in Bangladesh. However, the assessment of climate change impacts on the basin-scale hydrology by using well-calibrated hydrologic modeling has seldom been conducted in the GBM basin due to the lack of observed data for calibration and validation. In this study, a macroscale hydrologic model H08 has been applied over the basin at a relatively fine grid resolution (10 km) by integrating the fine-resolution DEM (digital elevation model) data for accurate river networks delineation. The model has been calibrated via the analysis of model parameter sensitivity and validated based on long-term observed daily streamflow data. The impacts of climate change (considering a high-emissions path) on runoff, evapotranspiration, and soil moisture are assessed by using five CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) GCMs (global circulation models) through three time-slice experiments; the present-day (1979–2003), the near-future (2015–2039), and the far-future (2075–2099) periods. Results show that, by the end of 21st century, (a) the entire GBM basin is projected to be warmed by ~4.3 °C; (b) the changes of mean precipitation (runoff) are projected to be +16.3% (+16.2%), +19.8% (+33.1%), and +29.6% (+39.7%) in the Brahmaputra, Ganges, and Meghna, respectively; and (c) evapotranspiration is projected to increase for the entire GBM (Brahmaputra: +16.4%, Ganges: +13.6%, Meghna: +12.9%) due to increased net radiation as well as warmer temperature. Future changes of hydrologic variables are larger in the dry season (November–April) than in the wet season (May–October). Amongst the three basins, the Meghna shows the highest increase in runoff, indicating higher possibility of flood occurrence. The uncertainty due to the specification of key model parameters in model predictions is found to be low for estimated runoff, evapotranspiration and net radiation. However, the uncertainty in estimated soil moisture is rather large with the coefficient of variation ranging from 14.4 to 31% among the three basins.
Climate impact on floods: changes in high flows in Sweden in the past and the future (1911–2100)
Authors: Arheimer B. , Lindström G.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. There is an ongoing discussion whether floods occur more frequently today than in the past, and whether they will increase in number and magnitude in the future. To explore this issue in Sweden, we merged observed time series for the past century from 69 gauging sites throughout the country (450 000 km2) with high-resolution dynamic model projections of the upcoming century. The results show that the changes in annual maximum daily flows in Sweden oscillate between dry and wet periods but exhibit no significant trend over the past 100 years. Temperature was found to be the strongest climate driver of changes in river high flows, which are related primarily to snowmelt in Sweden. Annual daily high flows may decrease by on average −1% per decade in the future, mainly due to lower peaks from snowmelt in the spring (−2% per decade) as a result of higher temperatures and a shorter snow season. In contrast, autumn flows may increase by +3% per decade due to more intense rainfall. This indicates a shift in flood-generating processes in the future, with greater influence of rain-fed floods. Changes in climate may have a more significant impact on some specific rivers than on the average for the whole country. Our results suggest that the temporal pattern in future daily high flow in some catchments will shift in time, with spring floods in the northern–central part of Sweden occurring about 1 month earlier than today. High flows in the southern part of the country may become more frequent. Moreover, the current boundary between snow-driven floods in northern–central Sweden and rain-driven floods in the south may move toward higher latitudes due to less snow accumulation in the south and at low altitudes. The findings also indicate a tendency in observations toward the modeled projections for timing of daily high flows over the last 25 years. Uncertainties related to both the observed data and the complex model chain of climate impact assessments in hydrology are discussed.
The added value of system robustness analysis for flood risk management illustrated by a case on the IJssel River
Authors: Mens M. J. P. , Klijn F.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. Decision makers in fluvial flood risk management increasingly acknowledge that they have to prepare for extreme events. Flood risk is the most common basis on which to compare flood risk-reducing strategies. To take uncertainties into account the criteria of robustness and flexibility are advocated as well. This paper discusses the added value of robustness as an additional decision criterion compared to single-value flood risk only. We do so by quantifying flood risk and system robustness for alternative system configurations of the IJssel River valley in the Netherlands. We found that robustness analysis has added value in three respects: (1) it does not require assumptions on current and future flood probabilities, since flood consequences are shown as a function of discharge; (2) it shows the sensitivity of the system to varying discharges; and (3) it supports a discussion on the acceptability of flood damage. We conclude that robustness analysis is a valuable addition to flood risk analysis in support of long-term decision-making on flood risk management.
Modelling soil erosion at European scale: towards harmonization and reproducibility
Authors: Bosco C. , de Rigo D. , Dewitte O. , Poesen J. , Panagos P.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. Soil erosion by water is one of the most widespread forms of soil degradation. The loss of soil as a result of erosion can lead to decline in organic matter and nutrient contents, breakdown of soil structure and reduction of the water-holding capacity. Measuring soil loss across the whole landscape is impractical and thus research is needed to improve methods of estimating soil erosion with computational modelling, upon which integrated assessment and mitigation strategies may be based. Despite the efforts, the prediction value of existing models is still limited, especially at regional and continental scale, because a systematic knowledge of local climatological and soil parameters is often unavailable. A new approach for modelling soil erosion at regional scale is here proposed. It is based on the joint use of low-data-demanding models and innovative techniques for better estimating model inputs. The proposed modelling architecture has at its basis the semantic array programming paradigm and a strong effort towards computational reproducibility. An extended version of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) has been implemented merging different empirical rainfall-erosivity equations within a climatic ensemble model and adding a new factor for a better consideration of soil stoniness within the model. Pan-European soil erosion rates by water have been estimated through the use of publicly available data sets and locally reliable empirical relationships. The accuracy of the results is corroborated by a visual plausibility check (63% of a random sample of grid cells are accurate, 83% at least moderately accurate, bootstrap p ≤ 0.05). A comparison with country-level statistics of pre-existing European soil erosion maps is also provided.
Interdependence and dynamics of essential services in an extensive risk context: a case study in Montserrat, West Indies
Authors: Sword-Daniels V. L. , Rossetto T. , Wilson T. M. , Sargeant S.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. The essential services that support urban living are complex and interdependent, and their disruption in disasters directly affects society. Yet there are few empirical studies to inform our understanding of the vulnerabilities and resilience of complex infrastructure systems in disasters. This research takes a systems thinking approach to explore the dynamic behaviour of a network of essential services, in the presence and absence of volcanic ashfall hazards in Montserrat, West Indies. Adopting a case study methodology and qualitative methods to gather empirical data we centre the study on the healthcare system and its interconnected network of essential services. We identify different types of relationship between sectors and develop a new interdependence classification system for analysis. Relationships are further categorised by hazard condition, for use in extensive risk contexts. During heightened volcanic activity, relationships between systems transform in both number and type: connections increase across the network by 41%, and adapt to increase cooperation and information sharing. Interconnections add capacities to the network, increasing the resilience of prioritised sectors. This in-depth and context-specific approach provides a new methodology for studying the dynamics of infrastructure interdependence in an extensive risk context, and can be adapted for use in other hazard contexts.
Simplified approach for locating the critical probabilistic slip surface in limit equilibrium analysis
Authors: Cheng Y. M. , Li L. , Liu L. L.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. This paper aims to develop a rapid and practical procedure that can locate the slip surface for a slope with the minimum reliability index for limit equilibrium analysis at the minimum expense of time. The comparative study on the reliability indices from different sample numbers using the Monte Carlo Simulation Method has demonstrated that the results from large enough sample number are related with those from small sample number with high correlation indices. This observation has been tested for many homogeneous and heterogeneous slopes with various conditions under parametric studies. Based on this observation, the reliability index for a potential slip surface can be calculated with a small sample number, and the search for the minimum reliability index and the slip surface can be determined by heuristic optimization algorithm. Based on the comparisons between the critical deterministic and probabilistic slip surfaces for many different cases, the use of the proposed fast method in locating the critical probabilistic slip surface is found to perform well, which is suitable for normal routine analysis and design works.
Projected impact on wave-driven harbour agitation due to climate change – application to the Catalan ports
Authors: Sierra J. P. , Casas-Prat M. , Virgili M. , Mösso C. , Sánchez-Arcilla A.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. The objective of the present work is to analyse how changes in wave patterns due to the effect of climate change can affect harbour agitation (oscillations within the port due to wind waves). The study focuses on 13 harbours located on the Catalan coast (NW Mediterranean) using a methodology with general applicability. To obtain the patterns of agitation, a Boussinesq-type model is used, which is forced at the boundaries by present/future offshore wave conditions extracted from recently developed high-resolution wave projections in the NW Mediterranean. These wave projections were obtained with the SWAN model forced by present/future surface wind fields projected, respectively, by 5 different combinations of global and regional circulation models (GCMs and RCMs) for the A1B scenario. The results show a general slight reduction in the annual average agitation for most of the ports, except for the northernmost and southernmost areas of the region, where a slight increase is obtained. A seasonal analysis reveals that the tendency to decrease is accentuated in winter. However, the inter-model variability is large for both the winter and the annual analysis and many ports present at least one model configuration showing a rise in the agitation. Conversely, a general increase is found during summer, which is the period with greater activity in most of the studied ports (marinas). The latter result is more consistent among models, which illustrates the lower inter-model variability in summer.
READY: a web-based geographical information system for enhanced flood resilience through raising awareness in citizens
Authors: Albano R. , Sole A. , Adamowski J.
Published: February 2015

Abstract. As evidenced by the EU Floods Directive (2007/60/EC), flood management strategies in Europe have undergone a shift in focus in recent years. The goal of flood prevention using structural measures has been replaced by an emphasis on the management of flood risks using non-structural measures. One implication of this is that it is no longer public authorities alone who take responsibility for flood management. A broader range of stakeholders, who may experience the negative effects of flooding, also take on responsibility to protect themselves. Therefore, it is vital that information concerning flood risks are conveyed to those who may be affected in order to facilitate the self-protection of citizens. Experience shows that even where efforts have been made to communicate flood risks, problems persist. There is a need for the development of new tools, which are able to rapidly disseminate flood risk information to the general public. To be useful, these tools must be able to present information relevant to the location of the user. Moreover, the content and design of the tool need to be adjusted to laypeople's needs. Dissemination and communication influences both people's access to and understanding of natural risk information. Such a tool could be a useful aid to effective management of flood risks. To address this gap, a Web-based Geographical Information System, (WebGIS), has been developed through the collaborative efforts of a group of scientists, hazard and risk analysts and managers, GIS analysts, system developers and communication designers. This tool, called "READY: Risk, Extreme Events, Adaptation, Defend Yourself", aims to enhance the general public knowledge of flood risk, making them more capable of responding appropriately during a flood event. The READY WebGIS has allowed for the visualization and easy querying of a complex hazard and risk database thanks to a high degree of interactivity and its easily readable maps. In this way, READY has enabled fast exploration of alternative flood scenarios or past calamitous events. Combined also with a system of graphic symbols designed ad hoc for communication of self-protection behaviors, it is believed READY could lead to an increase in citizen participation, informed discussion and consensus building. The platform has been developed for a site-specific application, i.e. the Basilicata Region, Italy, has been selected as pilot application area. The goal of the prototype is to raise citizen awareness of flood risks, and to build social capacity and enhanced resilience to flood events.