Long-term thermal sensitivity of Earth’s tropical forests
Authors: Sullivan Martin J. P. , Lewis Simon L. , Affum-Baffoe Kofi , Castilho Carolina , Costa Flávia , Sanchez Aida Cuni , Ewango Corneille E. N. , Hubau Wannes , Marimon Beatriz , Monteagudo-Mendoza Abel , Qie Lan , Sonké Bonaventure , Martinez Rodolfo Vasquez , Baker Timothy R. , Brienen Roel J. W. , Feldpausch Ted R. , Galbraith David , Gloor Manuel , Malhi Yadvinder , Aiba Shin-Ichiro , Alexiades Miguel N. , Almeida Everton C. , de Oliveira Edmar Almeida , Dávila Esteban Álvarez , Loayza Patricia Alvarez , Andrade Ana , Vieira Simone Aparecida , Aragão Luiz E. O. C. , Araujo-Murakami Alejandro , Arets Eric J. M. M. , Arroyo Luzmila , Ashton Peter , Aymard C. Gerardo , Baccaro Fabrício B. , Banin Lindsay F. , Baraloto Christopher , Camargo Plínio Barbosa , Barlow Jos , Barroso Jorcely , Bastin Jean-François , Batterman Sarah A. , Beeckman Hans , Begne Serge K. , Bennett Amy C. , Berenguer Erika , Berry Nicholas , Blanc Lilian , Boeckx Pascal , Bogaert Jan , Bonal Damien , Bongers Frans , Bradford Matt , Brearley Francis Q. , Brncic Terry , Brown Foster , Burban Benoit , Camargo José Luís , Castro Wendeson , Céron Carlos , Ribeiro Sabina Cerruto , Moscoso Victor Chama , Chave Jerôme , Chezeaux Eric , Clark Connie J. , de Souza Fernanda Coelho , Collins Murray , Comiskey James A. , Valverde Fernando Cornejo , Medina Massiel Corrales , da Costa Lola , Dančák Martin , Dargie Greta C. , Davies Stuart , Cardozo Nallaret Davila , de Haulleville Thales , de Medeiros Marcelo Brilhante , del Aguila Pasquel Jhon , Derroire Géraldine , Di Fiore Anthony , Doucet Jean-Louis , Dourdain Aurélie , Droissart Vincent , Duque Luisa Fernanda , Ekoungoulou Romeo , Elias Fernando , Erwin Terry , Esquivel-Muelbert Adriane , Fauset Sophie , Ferreira Joice , Llampazo Gerardo Flores , Foli Ernest , Ford Andrew , Gilpin Martin , Hall Jefferson S. , Hamer Keith C. , Hamilton Alan C. , Harris David J. , Hart Terese B. , Hédl Radim , Herault Bruno , Herrera Rafael , Higuchi Niro , Hladik Annette , Coronado Eurídice Honorio , Huamantupa-Chuquimaco Isau , Huasco Walter Huaraca , Jeffery Kathryn J. , Jimenez-Rojas Eliana , Kalamandeen Michelle , Djuikouo Marie Noël Kamdem , Kearsley Elizabeth , Umetsu Ricardo Keichi , Kho Lip Khoon , Killeen Timothy , Kitayama Kanehiro , Klitgaard Bente , Koch Alexander , Labrière Nicolas , Laurance William , Laurance Susan , Leal Miguel E. , Levesley Aurora , Lima Adriano J. N. , Lisingo Janvier , Lopes Aline P. , Lopez-Gonzalez Gabriela , Lovejoy Tom , Lovett Jon C. , Lowe Richard , Magnusson William E. , Malumbres-Olarte Jagoba , Manzatto Ângelo Gilberto , Marimon Ben Hur , Marshall Andrew R. , Marthews Toby , de Almeida Reis Simone Matias , Maycock Colin , Melgaço Karina , Mendoza Casimiro , Metali Faizah , Mihindou Vianet , Milliken William , Mitchard Edward T. A. , Morandi Paulo S. , Mossman Hannah L. , Nagy Laszlo , Nascimento Henrique , Neill David , Nilus Reuben , Vargas Percy Núñez , Palacios Walter , Camacho Nadir Pallqui , Peacock Julie , Pendry Colin , Peñuela Mora Maria Cristina , Pickavance Georgia C. , Pipoly John , Pitman Nigel , Playfair Maureen , Poorter Lourens , Poulsen John R. , Poulsen Axel Dalberg , Preziosi Richard , Prieto Adriana , Primack Richard B. , Ramírez-Angulo Hirma , Reitsma Jan , Réjou-Méchain Maxime , Correa Zorayda Restrepo , de Sousa Thaiane Rodrigues , Bayona Lily Rodriguez , Roopsind Anand , Rudas Agustín , Rutishauser Ervan , Abu Salim Kamariah , Salomão Rafael P. , Schietti Juliana , Sheil Douglas , Silva Richarlly C. , Espejo Javier Silva , Valeria Camila Silva , Silveira Marcos , Simo-Droissart Murielle , Simon Marcelo Fragomeni , Singh James , Soto Shareva Yahn Carlos , Stahl Clement , Stropp Juliana , Sukri Rahayu , Sunderland Terry , Svátek Martin , Swaine Michael D. , Swamy Varun , Taedoumg Hermann , Talbot Joey , Taplin James , Taylor David , ter Steege Hans , Terborgh John , Thomas Raquel , Thomas Sean C. , Torres-Lezama Armando , Umunay Peter , Gamarra Luis Valenzuela , van der Heijden Geertje , van der Hout Peter , van der Meer Peter , van Nieuwstadt Mark , Verbeeck Hans , Vernimmen Ronald , Vicentini Alberto , Vieira Ima Célia Guimarães , Torre Emilio Vilanova , Vleminckx Jason , Vos Vincent , Wang Ophelia , White Lee J. T. , Willcock Simon , Woods John T. , Wortel Verginia , Young Kenneth , Zagt Roderick , Zemagho Lise , Zuidema Pieter A. , Zwerts Joeri A. , Phillips Oliver L. 
Published: May 2020

Thermal sensitivity of tropical trees

A key uncertainty in climate change models is the thermal sensitivity of tropical forests and how this value might influence carbon fluxes. Sullivan
et al.
measured carbon stocks and fluxes in permanent forest plots distributed globally. This synthesis of plot networks across climatic and biogeographic gradients shows that forest thermal sensitivity is dominated by high daytime temperatures. This extreme condition depresses growth rates and shortens the time that carbon resides in the ecosystem by killing trees under hot, dry conditions. The effect of temperature is worse above 32°C, and a greater magnitude of climate change thus risks greater loss of tropical forest carbon stocks. Nevertheless, forest carbon stocks are likely to remain higher under moderate climate change if they are protected from direct impacts such as clearance, logging, or fires.

Science
, this issue p.
869