THE INSTRUMENTS OF THE RISKS ASSESSMENT OF COUNTRIES SECURITY DEVELOPMENT
Authors:   Mariupol State University, Bulatova Olena , Fedorov Eduard_ ,   Mariupol State University
Published: January 2023

The article is devoted to the study of security issues of countries development, in particular Ukraine, in terms of considering assessing risks in ensuring the countries economic security. It has been proven that a systematic and comprehensive assessment of the security level is possible by providing evaluation and constant monitoring of risks, that are an integral component of the countries socio-economic development in modern conditions. It was determined that in world practice at macroeconomic level the national systems of the risks and threats assessment are created and they are the important elements of strategic planning and ensuring of national stability and sustainable development. At the international level, international institutions and private agencies are engaged in the country risks assessment, they create and apply different methodological approaches to comprehensive risk assessment, on the basis of which the ratings of the countries by the security development level are formed, for instance, Business Environment Risk Index, Political and Country Risk of CRG, Euromoney Country Risk, EIU, International Country Risk Guide of PRS group etc. It has been studied that in the risk assessment theory, in general the sequence of assessment stages can consist the following stages: determination of internal and external factors that increase or decrease the degree of a certain type of risk; analysis of identified factors; assessment of a certain type of risk; establishing an acceptable level of risk; analysis of individual transactions connected with the chosen level of risk; development of measures to reduce the degree of risk. The authors proposed a methodical instrument for assessing the level of risk of the country's security development, which allows to provide a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the conditions of national economy sustainable development from the point of view of the impact of risks and threats. It is based on the algorithm that provides the following steps: the formation of the system of the quantitative risk indicators; their classification from the point of view of the nature of the impact on increasing or decreasing the dangers; assessment of the dynamics intensity of the indicators with a further correlation with respect to the generalized level of change; calculation of quantitative (from 1 to 4 points) and qualitative (absent, low, moderate, high, very high levels) levels using the proposed scale of deviations; assessment of the quantitative integral indicator of risk (score and relative level) and determination of its level according to the proposed scale (absent, low, moderate, high, very high). In the future, the practical application of the developed toolkit will make it possible to assess the risks of Ukraine's security development and identify the level of integral risk, which will be taken into account to determine and make changes in measures that help to adapt or minimize the impact or risks in order to ensure sustainable socio-economic development