bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Predictability of Belgian residential real estate rents using tree-based ML models and IML techniques
Authors: Lenaers Ian , Boudt Kris , De Moor Lieven
Published: April 2023

Purpose

The purpose is twofold. First, this study aims to establish that black box tree-based machine learning (ML) models have better predictive performance than a standard linear regression (LR) hedonic model for rent prediction. Second, it shows the added value of analyzing tree-based ML models with interpretable machine learning (IML) techniques.

Design/methodology/approach

Data on Belgian residential rental properties were collected. Tree-based ML models, random forest regression and eXtreme gradient boosting regression were applied to derive rent prediction models to compare predictive performance with a LR model. Interpretations of the tree-based models regarding important factors in predicting rent were made using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) feature importance (FI) plots and SHAP summary plots.

Findings

Results indicate that tree-based models perform better than a LR model for Belgian residential rent prediction. The SHAP FI plots agree that asking price, cadastral income, surface livable, number of bedrooms, number of bathrooms and variables measuring the proximity to points of interest are dominant predictors. The direction of relationships between rent and its factors is determined with SHAP summary plots. In addition to linear relationships, it emerges that nonlinear relationships exist.

Originality/value

Rent prediction using ML is relatively less studied than house price prediction. In addition, studying prediction models using IML techniques is relatively new in real estate economics. Moreover, to the best of the authors’ knowledge, this study is the first to derive insights of driving determinants of predicted rents from SHAP FI and SHAP summary plots.
A configurational approach to last mile logistics practices and omni-channel firm characteristics for competitive advantage: a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis
Authors: Risberg Andreas , Jafari Hamid , Sandberg Erik
Published: April 2023

Purpose

The purpose is to explore how the configurations resulting from the interplay of last mile logistics practices and firm characteristics are associated with firm performance in an omni-channel context.

Design/methodology/approach

Drawing on configuration theory (CT), the authors use fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) to analyze data on 72 Swedish omni-channel retailers.

Findings

Four configurations are identified—store-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises (SME's), online-oriented SME's, large store-oriented retailers and large online-oriented retailers. The results show that while offering a wide range of delivery options is necessary to achieve high performance, it is not sufficient, and that returns and fulfilment should be simultaneously considered. For instance, large high-performers leverage their stores and warehouses for fulfilment and returns in an integrated way irrespective of sales channel-mix. However, SME's appear to focus on fulfilment simplicity with less-costly delivery alternatives, where store-oriented SME's leverage stores and the online-oriented counterparts leverage warehouses. Consequently, the authors develop a configurational taxonomy and discuss a set of recipes which provide insights for researchers and practitioners.

Research limitations/implications

The study provides a more comprehensive understanding of the pathways to success, and potential pitfalls, in the last mile logistics context.

Originality/value

This study applies a novel methodology in the field, namely fsQCA, to explore the paths to competitive advantage. It covers a wide range of stages in the LM including back-end fulfilment, delivery and returns. It also provides insight into the logistics practices of both SME's and large omni-channel retailers.
The role of risk management committee between risk-taking behavior and companies’ performance
Authors: Muqorobin Masculine Muhammad , Rani Utpala , Simamora Alex Johanes
Published: April 2023

Purpose

This research aims to examine the moderating role of the existence of risk management committee between risk-taking behavior and companies’ performance.

Design/methodology/approach

Research sample includes 383 manufacturing company-year that listed on the Indonesian Stock Exchange period of 2017–2020. The risk-taking behavior includes the use of leverage, capital intensity, research and development intensity, and earnings uncertainty. The hypothesis test uses company fixed-effect regression.

Findings

The result shows that risk management committee moderates the effect of risk-taking behavior on companies’ performance. This research also finds the similar result when risk management committee and risk-taking behavior are examined on the future performance. In the further analysis, the result also finds that the expertise of risk management committee moderates the effect of risk-taking behavior on companies’ performance.

Originality/value

This research contributes to fill the previous gap of risk-taking behavior and companies’ performance by considering the existence of risk management committee to promote oversight role on risk-taking behavior. This research also contributes to give new evidence in Indonesia about the role of risk management committee to improve the benefits or to reduce the costs of risk-taking behavior.
Carbon emissions measurement as intra-action: incentives to disclose air emissions at a Canadian university
Authors: Porporato Marcela , Samuels-Jones Tameka
Published: April 2023

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to use the case of York University in Canada to analyze the connection between University Social Responsibility and voluntary disclosure. The authors examine whether the university’s voluntary air emissions disclosure is performative by exploring whether York University’s espoused commitment to its community stakeholders truly guides its incentive to disclose carbon emissions in the absence of a legal mandate.

Design/methodology/approach

This qualitative exploratory study uses a post-humanistic approach to build on publicly available data on key measures and metrics of air quality and carbon emissions to facilitate our understanding of representational and interventionist uses of measurement models by social actors and their basis for making voluntary disclosures.

Findings

York University linked the logic of capital markets with sustainability disclosures as an incentive for managing the cost of long-term debt. This paper contributes to measurement practice of sustainability disclosure by reinforcing the practice-theoretic conception of measurement that questions the independent nature of objects measured from the measurement methods and reporting tools.

Practical implications

The findings of this study are important to higher education administrators, regulators and policymakers, as they offer a strategic guide for the assessment of reports on an organization’s commitment to sustainability and in determining the efficacy of voluntary reporting to community stakeholders in general although they are intended for specific groups.

Originality/value

Using York University as an illustrative case, the authors argue that air emissions per se are not a reality that shapes decisions at the organizations; instead, the intra-action of air emissions measurement, communications and operational investments define the reality where sustainability is advanced. Specifically, the authors find that the performative effects of emissions disclosure may be associated with socially desirable outcomes in terms of social responsibility and concrete financial rewards.
Analysis on the dynamic characteristics of spiral groove dry gas seal based on the gas film adaptive adjustment model
Authors: Xu Hengjie , Yue Yinggang , Song Pengyun , Mao Wenyuan , Deng Qiangguo , Sun Xuejian
Published: April 2023

Purpose

This study aims to acquire the influence mechanism of gas film adaptive adjustment (GFAA) acted on the dynamic characteristics of spiral groove dry gas seal (S-DGS) and then propose a sealing stability enhancement measure.

Design/methodology/approach

The gas film dynamic stiffness and damping of S-DGS are obtained by numerically solving the transient Reynolds equation based on perturbation method and finite difference method. The dynamic coefficients in GFAA model and constant gas film thickness (CGFT) model are compared and analyzed.

Findings

There is the risk to misestimate the instability of DGS with rotational speed or medium pressure grows under the condition of CGFT assumption. Based on GFAA model, increasing balance ratio B properly is an effective measure to improve the stability of DGS. The balance ratio can stimulate the sensitivity of gas film dynamic coefficients to the variation of rotational speed. Increasing medium pressure in small balance ratio range will be conducive to reducing the risk of angular instability.

Originality/value

The influence mechanism of GFAA on S-DGS dynamic characteristics is analyzed. The interactions between rotational speed and balance ratio, medium pressure and balance ratio acted on gas film dynamic characteristics are explored based on the GFAA model.
Board diversity in Mauritius: a practice theory perspective
Authors: Gunesh Ramlugun Vidisha , Stainbank Lesley
Published: April 2023

Purpose

The aim of this study is to explore how a practice approach can provide an understanding of board diversity practices. Drawing from Schatzki's practice theory, this study considered how board diversity is practiced from the doings and sayings of directors in Mauritius.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, in-depth interviews with directors in listed companies from different industrial sectors were used to collect data.

Findings

The authors' findings indicate that a country's board diversity practices are influenced by the country's unique social, economic and cultural environment. Whilst board diversity practices may appear as the practices that are motivated by compliance, a deeper look at the results reveals that the laws governing board diversity are interpreted very subtly in a way that benefits shareholders' self-interest. A low percentage of female directors on boards and some indications of shareholder-driven practices are also found. Whilst the corporate sector acknowledges the advantages of diversity, there are some practices that they are unwilling to abandon, demonstrating the importance of the teleoaffective structures and normativity in determining what really occurs. Members of boards resolving disagreement further demonstrates the teleoaffective structure.

Research limitations/implications

This research would be of interest to researchers because of the research's novel approach in studying board diversity which could be used by other researchers to experiment with a practice approach in exploring corporate governance phenomena in unique settings.

Practical implications

The findings are of relevance to policymakers and regulators who seek to strengthen corporate governance practices in similar settings.

Originality/value

This research contributes to the literature on board diversity by showing that analysing board diversity through a practice approach enables a more comprehensive understanding of practices. The authors' study confirms that practice theory has the potential to re-orient the way board diversity studies are undertaken.
Moderating effect of IFRS adoption on accounting conservatism and cost of equity: evidence from Canadian ESG data
Authors: Chouaibi Yamina , Belhouchet Saida
Published: April 2023

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the moderating effect of International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) adoption on the relationship between accounting conservatism and the cost of equity in Canadian environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) firms.

Design/methodology/approach

Panel data was collected using the Thomson Reuters ASSET4 database on a sample of 284 Canadian ESG companies over the period 2007–2019.

Findings

The results obtained show a negative relationship between conditional conservatism and the cost of equity. The authors also find a negative relationship between unconditional conservatism and the cost of equity. In addition, IFRS adoption moderates the relationship between accounting conservatism and the cost of equity in Canadian ESG firms.

Research limitations/implications

Future studies may extend the coverage of the study by including other countries and other sectors.

Practical implications

The results imply that prudent accounting signals information to investors about the quality of a company’s current and future earnings. The rates of return required by investors may be higher for conservative reporting companies that are more susceptible to opportunistic management discretion.

Originality/value

Although the previous literature has studied the direct correlation between accounting conservatism and the cost of equity, the present work focuses on examining the direct association between accounting conservatism and the cost of equity through the moderator effect of IFRS, which has not been widely used in studies of accounting conservatism until now.
Who did what and when? The effect of chatbots’ service recovery on customer satisfaction and revisit intention
Authors: Zhu Yimin , Zhang Jiemin , Wu Jifei
Published: April 2023

Purpose

This study aims to explore the recovery performances of chatbots (vs human employees) and help firms use chatbots to carry out effective service recovery.

Design/methodology/approach

Two experiments were conducted to test the proposed hypotheses.

Findings

The results show that compared with human employees’ recovery, chatbots’ recovery leads to lower customer satisfaction and revisit intention. This effect is more significant for symbolic recovery instead of economic recovery. Perceived distributive and interactional justice mediate the interaction effect of recovery provider and recovery strategy on recovery performance. Using immediate recovery rather than delayed recovery can attenuate chatbots’ poor performances in symbolic recovery.

Originality/value

This study enriches the chatbot research and the service recovery literature by deploying chatbots into the service recovery setting. Using an integrated theoretical model including recovery strategy and recovery timing, this study provides substantive insight into how firms can enhance chatbots’ recovery performances.
Is Bangladesh’s policy response to the growing e-commerce sector compatible with its commitment to fight predicate offences for money laundering?
Authors: Haq Md. Zahurul
Published: April 2023

Purpose

This study aims to investigate Bangladesh’s e-commerce regulations in light of the growing criticism that they are insufficient to curb predicate crimes like fraud and money laundering in the online marketplace.

Design/methodology/approach

This study used the exploratory design to examine the latest ministerial directives and laws governing e-commerce in Bangladesh to determine why they cannot prevent fraudulent activities in this promising sector and identify potential solutions.

Findings

Bangladesh’s regulatory responses to e-commerce fraud prevention and detection are reactive and inadequate. Regulators are unwilling and unable to enforce available legal provisions for various reasons, including a lack of knowledge and coordination among the agencies.

Research limitations/implications

This paper focuses solely on the legal and regulatory framework in place to combat e-commerce fraud. Other critical issues, such as consumer rights, privacy and data protection in e-commerce, are not addressed.

Practical implications

The findings of this study will assist policymakers in revising current regulatory approaches to e-commerce to protect this sector from criminal abuse.

Originality/value

This study looked into the possibility of using a proactive risk-based approach in the e-commerce sector, similar to what the Bangladesh Financial Intelligence Unit does in the financial sector.
Data governance services evaluation: a multi-attribute group decision-making method with multigranular uncertain linguistic variables
Authors: Wang Zimi
Published: April 2023

Purpose

Government organizations often store large amounts of data and need to choose effective data governance service to achieve digital government. This paper aims to propose a novel multi-attribute group decision-making (MAGDM) method with multigranular uncertain linguistic variables for the selection of data governance service provider.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper presents a MAGDM method based on multigranular uncertain linguistic variables and minimum adjustment consensus. First, a novel transformation function is proposed to unify the multigranular uncertain linguistic variables. Then, the weights of the criteria are determined by building a linear programming model with positive and negative ideal solutions. To obtain the consensus opinion, a minimum adjustment consensus model with multigranular uncertain linguistic variables is established. Furthermore, the consensus opinion is aggregated to obtain the best data governance service provider. Finally, the proposed method is demonstrated by the application of the selection of data governance service provider.

Findings

The proposed consensus model with minimum adjustments could facilitate the consensus building and obtain a higher group consensus, while traditional consensus methods often need multiple rounds of modifications. Due to different backgrounds and professional fields, decision-makers (DMs) often provide multigranular uncertain linguistic variables. The proposed transformation function based on the positive ideal solution could help DMs understand each other and facilitate the interactions among DMs.

Originality/value

The minimum adjustment consensus-based MAGDM method with multigranular uncertain linguistic variables is proposed to achieve the group consensus. The application of the proposed method in the selection of data governance service provider is also investigated.
Big data and supply chain resilience: role of decision-making technology
Authors: Liu Huimin , Lu Fuying , Shi Binyan , Hu Ying , Li Min
Published: April 2023

Purpose

As global supply chains continue to develop, uncertainty grows and supply chains are frequently threatened with disruption. Although big data technology is being used to improve supply chain resilience, big data technology's role in human–machine collaboration is shifting between “supporters” and “substitutes.” However, big data technology's applicability in supply chain management is unclear. Choosing appropriate big data technology based on the enterprise's internal and external environments is important.

Design/methodology/approach

This study built a three-factor structural model of the factors “management support,” “big data technology adoption” and “supply chain resilience”. Big data technology adoption was divided into big data-assisted decision-making technology (ADT) and big data intelligent decision-making technology (IDT). A survey was conducted on more than 260 employees from supply chain departments in Chinese companies. The data were analyzed through structural equation modeling using Analyze of Moment Structures (AMOS) software.

Findings

The study's empirical results revealed that adopting both ADT and IDT improved supply chain resilience. The effects of both types of big data were significant in low-dynamic environments, but the effect of IDT on supply chain resilience was insignificant under high-dynamic environments. The authors also found that government support had an insignificantly effect on IDT adoption but significantly boosted ADT adoption, whereas management support factors promoted both ADT and IDT adoption.

Originality/value

By introducing two types of big data technology from the perspectives of the roles in human–machine collaborative decision-making, the research results provide a theoretical basis and management implications for enterprises to reduce the supply chain risk of enterprises.
Can COVID-19 deaths and confirmed cases predict the uncertainty indexes? A multiscale analysis
Authors: Mensi Walid , Vo Vinh Xuan , Kang Sang Hoon
Published: April 2023

Purpose

This study aims to examine the multiscale predictability power of COVID-19 deaths and confirmed cases on the S&P 500 index (USA), CAC30 index (France), BSE index (India), two strategic commodity futures (West Texas intermediate [WTI] crude oil and Gold) and five main uncertainty indices Equity Market Volatility Ticker (EMV), CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), US Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), CBOE Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) and CBOE ETF Gold Volatility Index (GVZ). Furthermore, the authors analyze the impact of uncertainty indices and COVID-19 deaths and confirmed cases on the price returns of stocks (S&P500, CAC300 and BSE), crude oil and gold.

Design/methodology/approach

The authors used the wavelet coherency method and quantile regression approach to achieve the objectives.

Findings

The results show strong multiscale comovements between the variables under investigation. Lead-lag relationships vary across frequencies. Finally, COVID-19 news is a powerful predictor of the uncertainty indices at intermediate (4–16 days) and low (32–64 days) frequencies for EPU and at low frequency for EMV, VIX, OVX and GVZ indices from January to April 2020. The S&P500, CAC30 and BSE indexes and gold prices comove with COVID-19 news at low frequencies during the sample period. By contrast, COVID-19 news and WTI oil moderately correlated at low frequencies. Finally, the returns on equity and commodity assets are influenced by uncertainty indices and are sensitive to market conditions.

Originality/value

This study contributes to the literature by exploring the time and frequency dependence between COVID-19 news (confirmed and death cases) on the returns of financial and commodity markets and uncertainty indexes. The findings can assist market participants and policymakers in considering the predictability of future prices and uncertainty over time and across frequencies when setting up regulations that aim to enhance market efficiency.
The volatility spillover effect of macroeconomic indicators on inbound tourism in India
Authors: Rastogi Shailesh , Kanoujiya Jagjeevan
Published: April 2023

Purpose

This study aims to determine the mutual association between the volatility of macroeconomic indicators (MIs) and India’s tourism demand.

Design/methodology/approach

Bivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) models are applied to estimate the volatility spillover effect (VSE) from one market to another. Compared to the other methods, bivariate GARCH has wide acceptance for estimating the VSE. The monthly MIs and tourism demand data (2012–2021) are gathered for empirical analysis.

Findings

The evidence of the growth-led tourism (GLT) demand is seen. In the short term, tourism-led growth (TLG) is indicated. However, this TLG does not sustain itself in the long run. There is significant evidence in favour of the VSE from the MIs to the tourism demand ensuring GLT in India.

Practical implications

The main implication of the current study is to ignore the short-term influence of tourism demand on the economy because it does not sustain itself in the long run. However, the long-term influence of macroeconomic indicators on tourism demand should be seen with caution. Hedging, if possible, may be considered to protect the tourism sector’s interests from adverse economic fallouts.

Originality/value

There is a lack of studies on the volatility (especially on the VSE) between MIs and tourism demand. Hence, this study fills the research gap and presents a novel and unique contribution to the extent of the knowledge body on the topic and significantly contributes.
Impact of body mass index on the severity of bexarotene‐associated hypertriglyceridemia: A post hoc analysis of an open‐labeled clinical study of combined bexarotene and phototherapy in Japanese patients with cutaneous T‐cell lymphoma
Authors: Sanagawa Akimasa , Hayakawa Tomoaki , Nishida Emi , Yamamoto Aya , Ikumi Kyoko , Mori Yukari , Hotta Yuji , Kimura Kazunori , Furukawa‐Hibi Yoko , Morita Akimichi
Published: April 2023

Bexarotene is an effective oral drug for the treatment of cutaneous T‐cell lymphoma, but careful management is required due to its various side effects. In particular, hypertriglyceridemia often requires a reduction or even suspension of bexarotene therapy. The risk factors of bexarotene‐associated severe hypertriglyceridemia are not clear. Here, we conducted a post hoc analysis of the data from our previous clinical trial, which confirmed the efficacy and safety of combined bexarotene and phototherapy, to evaluate the effect of body mass index on bexarotene‐associated hypertriglyceridemia. Twenty‐five subjects were divided into two subgroups: normal and underweight (body mass index [BMI] <25 kg/m2 group) and overweight and obese (BMI ≥25 kg/m2 group) patients. The overall incidence of hypertriglyceridemia was 81.3% (13/16) in the BMI <25 kg/m2 group and 88.9% (8/9) in the BMI ≥25 kg/m2 group. The incidence of grade ≥3 hypertriglyceridemia (≥500 mg/dL) was 7.7% (1/13) in the BMI <25 kg/m2 group and 7/8 (87.5%) in the BMI ≥25 kg/m2 group (P < 0.001). Consequently, dose reduction in the BMI ≥25 kg/m2 group was larger than that in the BMI <25 kg/m2 group. The bexarotene‐induced change in the serum triglyceride concentration was significantly increased in cutaneous T‐cell lymphoma patients with a higher body mass index (ρ = 0.508, P = 0.009). The area under the curve was 0.886 (95% confidence interval 0.748–1.000, P = 0.002). With a body mass index cut‐off of 24.85 kg/m2, the sensitivity and specificity for identifying grade ≥3 hypertriglyceridemia were 0.875 and 0.882, respectively. The present findings suggest that BMI ≥25 kg/m2 is a risk factor for bexarotene‐associated severe hypertriglyceridemia, therefore overweight and obese patients treated with bexarotene should receive lipid‐lowering drugs prophylactically. Further studies for optimizing the initial bexarotene dose in such patients are required.
Effect of chitosan with different molecular weights on the antifungal activity against Colletotrichum gloeosporioides and activation of the non‐enzymatic antioxidant system on infected papaya
Authors: López‐Zazueta Blanca Alicia , Ayón‐Reyna Lidia Elena , Gutiérrez‐Dorado Roberto , Rodríguez‐Gómez Fernando Arturo , López‐López Martha Edith , López‐Velázquez Jordi Gerardo , Díaz‐Corona Denisse Aurora , Vega‐García Misael Odín
Published: April 2023

Chitosan (Ch) is a biopolymer with excellent antimicrobial and antioxidant properties, capable of maintaining the organoleptic quality of fruits. These properties have been related to its molecular weight. However, the effect of different molecular weights on the non‐enzymatic antioxidant system and postharvest quality of anthracnose‐infected papaya is still unknown. Therefore, this study evaluated the effect of different Ch molecular weights (13, 25, and 55 kDa) on anthracnose development, antioxidant capacity, and postharvest quality of papaya. The Ch‐55, Ch‐25, and 13 kDa inhibited the development of Colletotrichum gloeosporioides. In comparison with thiabendazole, Ch with different molecular weights showed fungicidal effects. Ch‐55 kDa reduced anthracnose incidence and severity and maintained postharvest quality parameters of papaya. In addition, Ch‐55 and Ch‐13 kDa favored synthesis of ascorbic acid, total phenolics, and antioxidant capacity. Therefore, Ch‐55 kDa is an alternative to the protection against C. gloeosporioides and a stimulant of the non‐enzymatic antioxidant system in papaya fruits during its postharvest storage.

Practical Application

Ch with different molecular weights have different effects over anthracnose control and postharvest quality in papaya. In addition, they have different stimulation levels on the non‐enzymatic antioxidant system of papaya fruits, in a higher level than the chemical fungicide TBZ, by regulating the growth of the fungus and the degradative processes that are generated in fungal infection. In this sense, we believe that our findings could be of interest for producers and farmers to take advantage of this biopolymer to control anthracnose, preserve the postharvest quality, and stimulate the non‐enzymatic antioxidant system of papaya fruit.
Fighting polymicrobial biofilms in bacterial vaginosis
Authors: Sousa Lúcia G. V. , Pereira Sofia A. , Cerca Nuno
Published: April 2023

Bacterial vaginosis (BV) is the most common cause of vaginal discharge and is often associated with other health consequences mainly in pregnant women. BV is described by an imbalance in the vaginal microbiota where strictly and facultative anaerobic bacteria outgrow the lactic acid‐ and hydrogen peroxide‐producing Lactobacillus species. The species involved in BV are capable to grow and form a polymicrobial biofilm in the vaginal epithelium. The treatment of BV is usually performed using broad‐spectrum antibiotics, including metronidazole and clindamycin. However, these conventional treatments are associated with high recurrence rates. The BV polymicrobial biofilm may have an important role on the treatment outcome and is accounted as one of the factors for treatment failure. Other possible reasons for treatment failure include the presence of species resistant to antibiotics or the chance of reinfection after treatment. Therefore, novel strategies to increase the rates of treatment have been studied namely the use of probiotics and prebiotics, acidifying agents, antiseptics, plant‐based products, vaginal microbiota transplantation, and phage endolysins. Although some of them are still in an initial phase of development with very preliminary results, they show great perspectives for application. In this review, we aimed to study the role of the polymicrobial nature of BV in treatment failure and explore a few alternatives for treatment.
Inferring pathogen presence when sample misclassification and partial observation occur
Authors: Campbell Grant Evan H. , Mummah Riley O. , Mosher Brittany A. , Evans Jonah , DiRenzo Graziella V.
Published: April 2023

Surveillance programmes are essential for detecting emerging pathogens and often rely on molecular methods to make inference about the presence of a target disease agent. However, molecular methods rarely detect target DNA perfectly. For example, molecular pathogen detection methods can result in misclassification (i.e. false positives and false negatives) or partial detection errors (i.e. detections with ‘ambiguous’, ‘uncertain’ or ‘equivocal’ results). Then, when data are to be analysed, these partial observations are either discarded or censored; this, however, disregards information that could be used to make inference about the true state of the system. There is a critical need for more direction and guidance related to how many samples are enough to declare a unit of interest ‘pathogen free’.

Here, we develop a Bayesian hierarchal framework that accommodates false negative, false positive and uncertain detections to improve inference related to the occupancy of a pathogen. We apply our modelling framework to a case study of the fungal pathogen Pseudogymnoascus destructans (Pd) identified in Texas bats at the invasion front of white‐nose syndrome. To improve future surveillance programmes, we provide guidance on sample sizes required to be 95% certain a target organism is absent from a site.

We found that the presence of uncertain detections increased the variability of resulting posterior probability distributions of pathogen occurrence, and that our estimates of required sample size were very sensitive to prior information about pathogen occupancy, pathogen prevalence and diagnostic test specificity. In the Pd case study, we found that the posterior probability of occupancy was very low in 2018, but occupancy probability approached 1 in 2020, reflecting increasing prior probabilities of occupancy and prevalence elicited from the site manager.

Our modelling framework provides the user a posterior probability distribution of pathogen occurrence, which allows for subjective interpretation by the decision‐maker. To help readers apply and use the methods we developed, we provide an interactive RShiny app that generates target species occupancy estimation and sample size estimates to make these methods more accessible to the scientific community (https://rmummah.shinyapps.io/ambigDetect_sampleSize). This modelling framework and sample size guide may be useful for improving inferences from molecular surveillance data about emerging pathogens, non‐native invasive species and endangered species where misclassifications and ambiguous detections occur.
Prenatal alcohol exposure and attention‐deficit/hyperactivity disorder independently predict greater substance use in young adulthood
Authors: Dodge Neil C. , Jacobson Joseph L. , Lundahl Leslie H. , Jacobson Sandra W.
Published: April 2023

Background

The degree to which prenatal alcohol exposure (PAE) may influence alcohol and drug use in adulthood is difficult to determine. That is because PAE is highly correlated with environmental factors, including low socioeconomic status and exposure to parental drinking, and with behavioral problems, such as, attention‐deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), which are correlated with alcohol use and abuse.

Methods

Participants were 121 young adults from our Detroit Longitudinal Cohort study. Mothers were recruited during pregnancy and interviewed about their alcohol consumption using a timeline follow‐back procedure. At 19 years, their offspring were interviewed regarding current and past use of alcohol, cigarettes, and other illicit drugs.

Results

PAE was associated with greater alcohol, cannabis, and cigarette use. PAE, assessed using overall alcohol intake during pregnancy and alcohol dose per occasion, was associated with larger quantities of alcohol per occasion and greater alcohol tolerance in early adulthood. These effects persisted after control for demographic background, sex, age and education of participant, home environment, other prenatal drug exposure, and postnatal alcohol and drug use by the primary caregiver. Whereas ADHD predicted average alcohol consumed/month during young adulthood, PAE predicted alcohol dose/drinking occasion, and the effect on dose/occasion was not mediated by ADHD.

Conclusions

The effects of PAE on alcohol and cannabis use in young adulthood are not attributable to being reared in an environment that is socioeconomically disadvantaged or in one in which there is extensive maternal drinking. Furthermore, PAE was related to enhanced alcohol tolerance in young adults, a risk factor for alcohol use disorder later in life. Although ADHD was associated with greater alcohol consumption in early adulthood, it did not mediate the effect of PAE on offspring's alcohol use.
Molecular genetic diagnosis of kidney ciliopathies: Lessons from interpreting genomic sequencing data and the requirement for accurate phenotypic data
Authors: Orr Sarah , Olinger Eric , Iosifidou Sotia , Barroso‐Gil Miguel , Neatu Ruxandra , Wood Katrina , Wilson Ian ,   Genomics England Research Consortium, Sayer John Andrew
Published: April 2023

Introduction: Massively parallel sequencing (MPS) techniques have made a major impact on the identification of the genetic basis of inherited kidney diseases such as the ciliopathy autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD). Great care must be taken when analysing MPS data in isolation from accurate phenotypic information, as this can cause misdiagnosis. Methods: Here, we describe a family trio, recruited to the Genomics England 100,000 Genomes Project, labelled as having cystic kidney disease, who were genetically unsolved following routine data analysis pipelines. We performed a bespoke reanalysis of Whole Genome Sequencing (WGS) data and coupled this with revised phenotypic data and targeted PCR and Sanger sequencing to provide a precise molecular genetic diagnosis. Results: We detected a heterozygous PKD1 frameshift variant within the WGS data which segregated with the redefined ADPKD phenotypes. An additional heterozygous exon deletion in ALG8 was also found in affected and unaffected individuals, but its precise clinical significance remains unclear. Conclusion: This case illustrates that reanalysis of WGS data in unsolved cases of cystic kidney disease is valuable. Clinical phenotypes must be reassessed as these may have been incorrectly recorded and evolve over time. Undertaking additional studies including genotype‐phenotype correlation in wider family members provides useful diagnostic information.
Ureterorenoscopic stone procedures have low success rates and poor post‐operative follow‐up: results from an Australian tertiary health service
Authors: Goel Vinay , Dat Anthony , Jackman Matthew , Davis Michelle , Sidoti Roberta , Winter Hugo , McCahy Philip
Published: April 2023

Background

To assess the results of ureterorenoscopy (URS) for upper tract urolithiasis in a contemporary Australian tertiary healthcare setting.

Methods

Hospital records of all URS stone procedures performed between January 2017 and December 2018 in a metropolitan service were retrospectively reviewed. Outcome measures including stone free rates, adherence to postoperative follow‐up and complications rates were recorded.

Results

385 patients (387 renal units) with mean age 53.8 (range 18–89) underwent URS for stones measuring between 2 and 27 mm (median 8 mm). 465 URS were performed with 1029 total procedures performed. 48.6% of operations were performed as day cases. Complications were recorded in 9% of the 465 URS cases with 42.9% of these Clavien II or more. The representation rate to our Emergency Departments was 15.4%. Only 49.1% (201) of patients had a follow‐up review with imaging to assess stone free rates. Of the 201 patients who underwent imaging, only 38.3% were stone free. Stone analysis was performed in 34.5%.

Conclusion

Less than half of all patients were reviewed despite undergoing expensive, time consuming surgery for a condition with a high recurrence rate. In agreement with recent publications stone‐free rates were low, with significant complications and representation rates. Stone surgery should be given the attention and resources equivalent to cancer surgery to improve results.

Level of evidence

2b.
Upper GI bleeding in rural Australia: general surgery still alive and well!
Authors: Sabat Nestor , McSweeney William , Konno Takuma , Gilberd Matthew A. , Molloy Charles , Pretorius Casper
Published: April 2023

Background

The complex and critically unwell upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) patient is a common emergency presentation in Australia. Managed medically and endoscopically by rural general surgeons in rural and remote Australian hospitals which lack a gastroenterology service, this can be ameliorated by clear evidence‐based guidelines.

Methods

A single‐centre retrospective review of adult patients who underwent emergency gastroscopy for UGIB at the Mackay Base Hospital, January 2019 to January 2022. Detailed patient data from the assessment, resuscitation, time to endoscopy, endoscopic intervention, and outcomes were compared against key international gastroenterology society safety and quality standards for UGIB.

Results

Two hundred patients had a comprehensive initial assessment and resuscitation with PRBC (39%), anticoagulation reversal (18%), pantoprazole infusion (81%), tranexamic acid (10.50%) and octreotide (16.50%). Risk scores were calculated retrospectively as none were documented. Time‐to‐endoscopy targets were achieved in over 70% of variceal or non‐variceal UGIB patients. Bleeding was found in 59.50% of patients but 63% of patients did not require a manoeuvre to stop the bleeding. Post‐operative complications were scarce.

Conclusion

This study reflects on the need for a local multidisciplinary protocol to help expedite the current high‐quality healthcare delivered by rural general surgeons in managing patients with UGIB. Implementing risk assessment scores would shorten the time to endoscopy in the initial assessment Guidelines would optimize resuscitation ensuring appropriate replacement, medication administration, anticoagulation reversal, and preventing unnecessary therapy. Despite these nuisances, the time to endoscopy, endoscopic intervention, and patient outcomes were largely in line with international quality assurance and safety targets.
A systematic review on the efficacy of tranexamic acid in head and neck surgery
Authors: Jamshaid Warda , Jamshaid Maryam , Coulson Chris , Sharma Neil , Muzaffar Jameel , Nieto Hannah
Published: April 2023

Background

Intraoperative and postoperative blood loss is a major risk in head and neck (H&N) surgery. Recently the use of tranexamic acid (TXA) has been investigated by multiple studies for reducing intraoperative and postoperative bleeding, however reported results are variable.

Objectives

To determine the safety and efficacy of TXA use in H&N surgery.

Methods

Systematic review of MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, PubMed, ClinicalKey, and Clinicaltrials.gov according to the PRISMA guidelines. Studies were included if they reported on intraoperative bleeding, volume or duration of postoperative drain or return to theatre rate for postoperative haemorrhage in adult populations following use of TXA. Risk of bias assessment with Cochrane Risk of Bias (RoB2) tool for randomised controlled trials and Newcastle–Ottawa Scale tool for non‐randomised studies.

Results

Sixteen studies were identified (114 407 patients). Eight studies evaluated TXA in major H&N surgery and eight studies in tonsillectomy. Primary outcomes were reduction in intraoperative or postoperative bleeding. Secondary outcomes included the duration of postoperative drain placement and return to theatre rate. No adverse events were reported in any patients. TXA is effective in reducing intraoperative blood loss in tonsillectomy. However, the effect on posttonsillectomy haemorrhage was unclear. Insufficient evidence exists of benefit of TXA on intraoperative bleeding in major H&N procedures. Postoperative drainage volumes were significantly reduced in most major H&N studies. The duration of drain placement and risk of blood transfusion was unchanged in most cases.

Conclusion

TXA use is safe in H&N patients. Whilst sufficient evidence exists to support the use of TXA in tonsillectomy, insufficient evidence exists to recommend use in major H&N surgery.
Why stigma matters in addressing alcohol harm
Authors: Morris James , Schomerus Georg
Published: April 2023

Alcohol problems are amongst the most stigmatised of conditions, resulting in multiple additional harms for people with alcohol use disorder. Alcohol stigma encompasses widely endorsed negative stereotypes leading to prejudice and discrimination towards people with alcohol use disorder. Self‐stigma further harms individuals through preventing and undermining recovery. The persistence of alcohol stigma highlights the limitations of an illness model of alcohol use disorder for stigma reduction; in fact, many groups inadvertently reinforce stigma by emphasising the artificial line between ‘normal’ drinkers and the pathologised ‘alcoholic other’. A public health case for alcohol stigma reduction highlights the need to address this societal false dichotomisation of problem drinkers. Promoting a continuum‐aligned model of alcohol use disorder, a dynamic model of responsibility, and other evidence‐led approaches such as person‐first language by key stakeholders are recommended.
How much do development partners invest in disaster risk reduction? A data analysis
Authors: Lee Suyeon
Published: April 2023

Motivation

Most weather‐related disasters occur in the world's poorest countries, which have the least capacity to cope. Due to the absence of a clear classification of DRR aid, donors and recipient countries have not known the amount of DRR aid flowing or its effectiveness in terms of supporting disaster risk management in developing countries.

Purpose

In 2018, the OECD DAC created a new policy marker for DRR to help donor countries to monitor and report the progress made on mainstreaming DRR into their development activities. Drawing on this DRR marker, this study identifies trends and patterns as well as limitations in the DRR mainstreaming process to guide donor countries to successfully deliver the DRR goals.

Methods and approach

When reporting to the OECD DAC, donors are asked to provide information on the purpose of individual projects/programmes, and screen against all policy markers in the reporting system. Using this data, this study conducted an in‐depth analysis of donor countries' development portfolios to provide a comprehensive and granular picture of the funding streams and practices concerning DRR.

Findings

This study revealed that current spending on DRR remains a tiny fraction of total development aid. Even after the creation of the DRR marker, which raised donors' awareness of the importance of integrating DRR into development planning, no substantial increase in DRR funding has been made. This implies that most official development assistance from DAC members still fails to consider DRR in any meaningful way.

Policy implications

Important areas for improvement include a more comprehensive understanding of disaster risk, increased funding for activities that principally target DRR, financial stability, and further integration of DRR and climate change adaptation into development projects.
Plasma biomarkers in adolescents with schizophrenia‐spectrum disorder
Authors: Zakowicz Przemysław , Skibińska Maria , Waśniewski Filip , Skulimowski Bartosz , Pawlak Joanna
Published: April 2023

Aim

Schizophrenia onset in the developmental age has a strong neurodevelopmental burden and is associated with a poorer prognosis. The approach to diagnosis is still based on symptomatic description without objective validation. In this study, we aimed to compare the peripheral blood levels of hypothesized biomarker proteins: brain‐derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF), proBDNF, p75 neurotrophin receptor (p75NTR) and S100B between early‐onset schizophrenia‐spectrum adolescents (n = 45) and healthy controls (n = 34).

Methods

Clinical assessment of the participants encompassed symptomatic description with the use of structured interviews and executive function objective measurement. Plasma levels of BDNF protein were significantly lower in schizophrenia patients than in controls both at admission (p = .003) and 6–8 weeks follow‐up (p = .007).

Results

We observed significant correlations between BDNF, proBDNF and p75NTR levels and positive and negative symptoms scale (PANSS) scores, p75NTR and S100B levels and suicidal parameters, as well as a correlation of BDNF plasma level with the risky decision‐making style in Iowa Gambling Task (IGT).

Conclusions

The results indicate a potential value of studied proteins as a biomarker in the diagnosis and monitoring of the disease's course.