bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Bayesian Model Averaging and Exchange Rate Forecasts
Authors: Wright Jonathan H.
Published: August 2019

Exchange rate forecasting is hard and the seminal result of Meese and Rogoff (1983) that the exchange rate is well approximated by a driftless random walk, at least for prediction purposes, has never really been overturned despite much effort at constructing other forecasting models. However, in several other macro and financial forecasting applications, researchers in recent years have considered methods for forecasting that combine the information in a large number of time series. One method that has been found to be remarkably useful for out-of-sample prediction is simple averaging of the forecasts of different models. This often seems to work better than the forecasts from any one model. Bayesian Model Averaging is a closely related method that has also been found to be useful for out-of-sample prediction. This starts out with many possible models and prior beliefs about the probability that each model is the true one. It then involves computing the posterior probability that each model is the true one, and averages the forecasts from the different models, weighting them by these posterior probabilities. This is effectively a shrinkage methodology, but with shrinkage over models not just over parameters. I apply this Bayesian Model Averaging approach to pseudo-out-of-sample exchange rate forecasting over the last ten years. I find that it compares quite favorably to a driftless random walk forecast. Depending on the currency-horizon pair, the Bayesian Model Averaging forecasts sometimes do quite a bit better than the random walk benchmark (in terms of mean square prediction error), while they never do much worse. The forecasts generated by this model averaging methodology are however very close to (but not identical to) those from the random walk forecast.
Forecasting U.S. Inflation by Bayesian Model Averaging
Authors: Wright Jonathan H.
Published: August 2019

Recent empirical work has considered the prediction of inflation by combining the information in a large number of time series. One such method that has been found to give consistently good results consists of simple equal weighted averaging of the forecasts over a large number of different models, each of which is a linear regression model that relates inflation to a single predictor and a lagged dependent variable. In this paper, I consider using Bayesian Model Averaging for pseudo out-of-sample prediction of US inflation, and find that it gives more accurate forecasts than simple equal weighted averaging. This superior performance is consistent across subsamples and inflation measures. Meanwhile, both methods substantially outperform a naive time series benchmark of predicting inflation by an autoregression.
Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the Trade Deficit
Authors: Erceg Christopher J. , Guerrieri Luca , Gust Christopher J.
Published: August 2019

In this paper, we use an open economy DGE model (SIGMA) to assess the quantitative effects of fiscal shocks on the trade balance in the United States. We examine the effects of two alternative fiscal shocks: a rise in government consumption, and a reduction in the labor income tax rate. Our salient finding is that a fiscal deficit has a relatively small effect on the U.S. trade balance, irrespective of whether the source is a spending increase or tax cut. In our benchmark calibration, we find that a rise in the fiscal deficit of one percentage point of GDP induces the trade balance to deteriorate by less than 0.2 percentage point of GDP. Noticeably larger effects are only likely to be elicited under implausibly high values of the short-run trade price elasticity.
Inference in Long-Horizon Regressions
Authors: Hjalmarsson Erik
Published: August 2019

I develop new results for long-horizon predictive regressions with overlapping observations. I show that rather than using auto-correlation robust standard errors, the standard t-statistic can simply be divided by the square root of the forecasting horizon to correct for the effects of the overlap in the data; this is asymptotically an exact correction and not an approximate result. Further, when the regressors are persistent and endogenous, the long-run OLS estimator suffers from the same problems as does the short-run OLS estimator, and it is shown how similar corrections and test procedures as those proposed for the short-run case can also be implemented in the long-run. New results for the power properties of long-horizon tests are also developed. The theoretical results are illustrated with an application to long-run stock-return predictability, where it is shown that once correctly sized tests are used, the evidence of predictability is generally much stronger at short rather than long horizons.
Monetary Policy, Oil Shocks, and TFP: Accounting for the Decline in U.S. Volatility
Authors: Leduc Sylvain , Sill Keith
Published: August 2019

An equilibrium model is used to assess the quantitative importance of monetary policy for the post-1984 decline in U.S. inflation and output volatility. The principal finding is that monetary policy played a substantial role in reducing inflation volatility, but a small role in reducing real output volatility. The model attributes much of the decline in real output volatility to smaller TFP shocks. We also investigate the pattern of output and inflation volatility under an optimal monetary policy counterfactual. We find that real output volatility would have been somewhat lower, and inflation volatility substantially lower, had monetary policy been set optimally.
An Empirical Analysis of Specialist Trading Behavior at the New York Stock Exchange
Authors: Benediktsdottir Sigridur
Published: August 2019

I establish stylized empirical facts about the trading behavior of New York Stock Exchange specialists. Specifically, I look at the effect of future price movements, the specialist's explicit role, and the specialist's inventory levels on specialist trading behavior. The motivation for this empirical study is to infer whether the specialist behaves like an active investor who has an information advantage which he obtains while acting as a broker for other traders. If this were the case, one would expect that the specialist would engage in a profit maximizing strategy, buying low and selling high, which is opposite to the prediction of the traditional inventory model. I find that specialists behave like active investors who seek to buy stocks when prices are low and to sell when prices are high. I also find that when specialists are not performing their trading obligations of being on the opposite side of the market they are in almost 85 percent of their trades, buying low and selling high. The findings of this paper indicate that the NYSE specialist is best represented in theoretical models as a constrained profit maximizing, informed investor rather than as a zero profit trader.
Optimal Fiscal and Monetary Policy When Money is Essential
Authors: Aruoba S. Boragan , Chugh Sanjay K.
Published: August 2019

We study optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an environment where explicit frictions give rise to valued money, making money essential in the sense that it expands the set of feasible trades. Our main results are in stark contrast to the prescriptions of earlier flexible-price Ramsey models. Two especially important findings emerge from our work: the Friedman Rule is typically not optimal and inflation is stable over time. Inflation is not a substitute instrument for a missing tax, as is sometimes the case in standard Ramsey models. Rather, the inflation tax is exactly the right tax to use because the use of money has a rent associated with it. Regarding the optimal dynamic policy, realized (ex-post) inflation is quite stable over time, in contrast to the very volatile ex-post inflation rates that arise in standard flexible-price Ramsey models. We also find that because capital is underaccumulated, optimal policy includes a subsidy on capital income. Taken together, these findings turn conventional wisdom from traditional Ramsey monetary models on its head.
The Transmission of Domestic Shocks in the Open Economy
Authors: Erceg Christopher J. , Gust Christopher J. , López-Salido J. David
Published: August 2019

This paper uses an open economy DSGE model to explore how trade openness affects the transmission of domestic shocks. For some calibrations, closed and open economies appear dramatically different, reminiscent of the implications of Mundell-Fleming style models. However, we argue such stark differences hinge on calibrations that impose an implausibly high trade price elasticity and Frisch elasticity of labor supply. Overall, our results suggest that the main effects of openness are on the composition of expenditure, and on the wedge between consumer and domestic prices, rather than on the response of aggregate output and domestic prices.
External Governance and Debt Agency Costs of Family Firms
Authors: Ellul Andrew , Guntay Levent , Lel Ugur
Published: August 2019

We investigate the impact of family blockholders on the firm's debt agency costs under different investor protection environments. On one hand, families--through their undiversified investments, inter-generation presence, and reputation concerns--can mitigate debt agency costs. On the other hand, families--through their unique power position that can lead to private benefits extraction and higher bankruptcy risk--can exacerbate debt agency costs. The actual impact can go either way and what matters should be the creditors' protection environment. Using international bond issues from 1995 to 2000 for 1,072 international firms originating from 24 different countries, we find that family firms originating from low investor protection environments suffer from higher debt costs compared to non-family firms, while family firms originating from high investor protection environments benefit from lower debt costs compared to non-family firms. We find no impact from non-family blockholdings. These results are robust to various specifications and confirmed by an out-of-sample test using bonds issued by U.S. and foreign firms listed in the U.S. originating from 27 different countries.
Cross-Border Returns Differentials
Authors: Curcuru Stephanie E. , Dvorak Tomas , Warnock Francis E.
Published: August 2019

Were the U.S. to persistently earn substantially more on its foreign investments ("U.S. claims") than foreigners earn on their U.S. investments ("U.S. liabilities"), the likelihood that the current environment of sizeable global imbalances will evolve in a benign manner increases. However, using a monthly dataset on the foreign equity and bond portfolios of U.S. investors and the U.S. equity and bond portfolios of foreign investors, we find that the returns differential for portfolio securities is near zero, far smaller than previously reported. Examining all U.S. claims and liabilities (portfolio securities as well as direct investment and banking), we find that previous estimates of large differentials are biased upward. The bias owes to computing implied returns from an internally inconsistent dataset of revised data; original data produce a much smaller differential. We also attempt to reconcile our finding of a near zero returns differential with observed patterns of cumulated current account deficits, the net international investment position, and the net income balance. Overall, we find no evidence that the U.S. can count on earning substantially more on its claims than it pays on its liabilities.
Do Differences in Financial Development Explain the Global Pattern of Current Account Imbalances?
Authors: Gruber Joseph W. , Kamin Steven
Published: August 2019

This paper addresses the popular view that differences in financial development explain the pattern of global current account imbalances. One strain of thinking explains the net flow of capital from developing to industrial economies on the basis of the industrial economies’ more advanced financial systems and correspondingly more attractive assets. A related view addresses why the United States has attracted the lion’s share of capital flows from developing to industrial economies; it stresses the exceptional depth, breadth, and safety of U.S. financial markets. In this paper we empirically test these hypotheses. Building on Chinn and Prasad (2003) and Gruber and Kamin (2007), we assess econometrically whether different measures of financial development explain the net flow of capital from developing to industrial economies, as well as the concentration of those flows toward the United States. We also assess whether differences in asset returns, an alternative measure of the attractiveness of financial assets, can explain the international pattern of capital flows. We find little evidence that differences in financial development help to explain the global pattern of current account imbalances. The measures of financial development generally do not explain either the net flow of capital from developing to industrial economies or, more specifically, the large U.S. current account deficits. Lower bond yields have been generally associated with lower current account balances (e.g., larger deficits) in industrial countries. However, U.S. bond yields have not been significantly lower than in other industrial economies, nor have expected equity earnings yields. This suggests, contrary to conventional wisdom, that U.S. financial assets have not been demonstrably more attractive than those of other industrial economies, and hence cannot explain the large U.S. deficit. Finally, we consider the alternative but related hypothesis that spending in the United States was uniquely responsive to the lower cost of credit stemming from capital inflows from developing countries, thus accounting for the outsized U.S. deficit. However, we found this hypothesis also to be weak, as household saving rates have declined throughout the industrial economies, not just in the United States.
How Long can the Unsustainable U.S. Current Account Deficit be Sustained?
Authors: Bertaut Carol C. , Kamin Steven , Thomas Carlos
Published: August 2019

This paper addresses three questions about the prospects for the U.S. current account deficit. Is it sustainable in the long term? If not, how long will it take for measures of external debt and debt service to reach levels that could prompt some pullback by global investors? And if and when such levels are breached, how readily would asset prices respond and the current account start to narrow? To address these questions, we start with projections of a detailed partial-equilibrium model of the U.S. balance of payments. Based on plausible assumptions of the key drivers of the U.S. external balance, they indicate that the current account deficit will resume widening and the negative NIIP/GDP ratio will continue to expand. However, our projections suggest that even by the year 2020, the negative NIIP/GDP ratio will be no higher than it is in several industrial economies today, and U.S. net investment income payments will remain very low. The share of U.S. claims in foreigners' portfolios will likely rise, but not to an obviously worrisome extent. All told, it seems likely it would take many years for the U.S. debt to cumulate to a level that would test global investors' willingness to extend financing. Finally, we explore the historical responsiveness of asset prices and the current account in industrial economies to measures of external imbalances and debt. We find little evidence that, as countries' net indebtedness rises, the developments needed to correct the current account--including changes in growth rates, asset prices, or exchange rates--materialize all that rapidly. We would emphasize that these findings do not imply that U.S. current account adjustment is necessarily many years away, as any number of factors could trigger such adjustment. Our point is rather that international balance sheet considerations likely are not sufficient, by themselves, to require external adjustment any time soon.
Rise of the Machines: Algorithmic Trading in the Foreign Exchange Market
Authors: Chaboud Alain P. , Chiquoine Benjamin , Hjalmarsson Erik , Vega Clara
Published: August 2019

We study the impact that algorithmic trading, computers directly interfacing at high frequency with trading platforms, has had on price discovery and volatility in the foreign exchange market. Our dataset represents a majority of global interdealer trading in three major currency pairs in 2006 and 2007. Importantly, it contains precise observations of the size and the direction of the computer-generated and human-generated trades each minute. The empirical analysis provides several important insights. First, we find evidence that algorithmic trades tend to be correlated, suggesting that the algorithmic strategies used in the market are not as diverse as those used by non-algorithmic traders. Second, we find that, despite the apparent correlation of algorithmic trades, there is no evident causal relationship between algorithmic trading and increased exchange rate volatility. If anything, the presence of more algorithmic trading is associated with lower volatility. Third, we show that even though some algorithmic traders appear to restrict their activity in the minute following macroeconomic data releases, algorithmic traders increase their provision of liquidity over the hour following each release. Fourth, we find that non-algorithmic order flow accounts for a larger share of the variance in exchange rate returns than does algorithmic order flow. Fifth, we find evidence that supports the recent literature that proposes to depart from the prevalent assumption that liquidity providers in limit order books are passive.
Fiscal positions and government bond yields in OECD countries
Authors: Gruber Joseph W. , Kamin Steven
Published: August 2019

We examine the impact of fiscal positions, both the level of debt and the fiscal balance, on long-term government bond yields in the OECD. In order to control for the endogenity of fiscal positions to the business cycle, we utilize forward projections of fiscal positions from the OECD's Economic Outlook. In a panel regression over the period from 1988 to 2007, we find a robust and significant effect of fiscal performance on long-term bond yields. Our estimates imply that the marginal effect of the projected deterioration of fiscal positions associated with the recent financial crisis is to add about 60 basis points to U.S. bond yields by 2015, with effects on other G7 bond yields generally being smaller.
Where are Global and U.S. Trade Heading in the Aftermath of the Trade Collapse: Issues and Alternative Scenarios
Authors: Gruber Joseph W. , Di Mauro Filippo , Schnatz Bernd , Zorell Nico
Published: August 2019

Global and U.S. trade declined dramatically in the wake of the global financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009. The subsequent recovery in trade, while vigorous at first, gradually lost momentum in 2010. Against this backdrop, this paper explores the prospects for global and U.S. trade in the medium term. We develop a unified empirical framework -- an error correction model -- that exploits the cointegrating relationship between trade and economic activity. The model allows us to juxtapose several scenarios with different assumptions about the strength of GDP growth going forward and the relationship between trade and economic activity. Our analysis suggests that during the crisis both world trade and U.S. exports declined significantly more than would have been expected on the basis of historical relationships with economic activity. Moreover, this gap between actual and equilibrium trade is closing only slowly and could persist for some time to come.
Housing Wealth and Consumption
Authors: Iacoviello Matteo
Published: August 2019

Housing wealth is about one half of household net worth, and consumption is a considerable fraction (about two thirds) of Gross Domestic Product in the United States. Empirically, movements in housing wealth are associated with movements in consumption in the same direction. This observation has led many economists, commentators and policy makers to study how housing wealth and consumption are linked together. A sizeable portion of the comovement between housing wealth and consumption reflects common factors driving both variables, rather than the &amp;#x27;wealth effect&amp;#x27; of the former on the latter however, a growing body of evidence suggests that the comovement is larger in developed financial markets and in the presence of liquidity constraints.
Housing and Debt Over the Life Cycle and Over the Business Cycle
Authors: Iacoviello Matteo , Pavan Marina
Published: August 2019

We study housing and debt in a quantitative general equilibrium model. In the cross-section, the model matches the wealth distribution, the age profiles of homeownership and mortgage debt, and the frequency of housing adjustment. In the time-series, the model matches the procyclicality and volatility of housing investment, and the procyclicality of mortgage debt. We use the model to conduct two experiments. First, we investigate the consequences of higher individual income risk and lower downpayments, and find that these two changes can explain, in the model and in the data, the reduced volatility of housing investment, the reduced procyclicality of mortgage debt, and a small fraction of the reduced volatility of GDP. Second, we use the model to look at the behavior of housing investment and mortgage debt in an experiment that mimics the Great Recession: we find that countercyclical financial conditions can account for large drops in housing activity and mortgage debt when the economy is hit by large negative shocks.
Do Recessions Affect Potential Output?
Authors: Haltmaier Jane
Published: August 2019

A number of previous studies have looked at the effect of financial crises on actual output several years beyond the crisis. The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the growth of potential output also is affected by recessions, whether or not they include financial crises. Trend per capita output growth is calculated using HP filters, and average growth is compared for the two years preceding a recession, the two years immediately following a recession peak, and the two years after that. Panel regressions are run to determine whether characteristics of recessions, including depth, length, extent to which they are synchronized across countries, and whether or not they include a financial crisis, can explain the cumulative four-year loss in the level of potential output following an output peak preceding a recession. The main result is that the depth of a recession has a significant effect on the loss of potential for advanced countries, while the length is important for emerging markets. These results imply that the Great Recession might have resulted in declines in trend output growth averaging about 3 percent for the advanced economies, but appear to have had little effect on emerging market trend growth.
Inference Based on SVARs Identified with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications
Authors: Arias Jonas E. , Rubio-Ramírez Juan Francisco , Waggoner Daniel F.
Published: August 2019

Are optimism shocks an important source of business cycle fluctuations? Are deficit-financed tax cuts better than deficit-financed spending to increase output? These questions have been previously studied using SVARs identified with sign and zero restrictions and the answers have been positive and definite in both cases. While the identification of SVARs with sign and zero restrictions is theoretically attractive because it allows the researcher to remain agnostic with respect to the responses of the key variables of interest, we show that current implementation of these techniques does not respect the agnosticism of the theory. These algorithms impose additional sign restrictions on variables that are seemingly unrestricted that bias the results and produce misleading confidence intervals. We provide an alternative and efficient algorithm that does not introduce any additional sign restriction, hence preserving the agnosticism of the theory. Without the additional restrictions, it is hard to support the claim that either optimism shocks are an important source of business cycle fluctuations or deficit-financed tax cuts work best at improving output. Our algorithm is not only correct but also faster than current ones.
The Role of Oil Price Shocks in Causing U.S. Recessions
Authors: Kilian Lutz , Vigfusson Robert J.
Published: August 2019

Although oil price shocks have long been viewed as one of the leading candidates for explaining U.S. recessions, surprisingly little is known about the extent to which oil price shocks explain recessions. We provide a formal analysis of this question with special attention to the possible role of net oil price increases in amplifying the transmission of oil price shocks. We quantify the conditional recessionary effect of oil price shocks in the net oil price increase model for all episodes of net oil price increases since the mid-1970s. Compared to the linear model, the cumulative effect of oil price shocks over the course of the next two years is much larger in the net oil price increase model. For example, oil price shocks explain a 3 percent cumulative reduction in U.S. real GDP in the late 1970s and early 1980s and a 5 percent cumulative reduction during the financial crisis. An obvious concern is that some of these estimates are an artifact of net oil price increases being correlated with other variables that explain recessions. We show that the explanatory power of oil price shocks largely persists even after augmenting the nonlinear model with a measure of credit supply conditions, of the monetary policy stance and of consumer confidence. There is evidence, however, that the conditional fit of the net oil price increase model is worse on average than the fit of the corresponding linear model, suggesting much smaller cumulative effects of oil price shocks for these episodes of at most 1 percent.
The Replacement of Safe Assets: Evidence from the U.S. Bond Portfolio
Authors: Bertaut Carol C. , Tabova Alexandra , Wong Vivian
Published: August 2019

The expansion in financial sector &amp;#x27;safe&amp;#x27; assets, largely in the form of structured products from the U.S. and the Caribbean, in the lead-up to the global financial crisis has by now been fairly well documented. Using a unique dataset derived from security-level data on U.S. portfolio holdings of foreign securities, we show that since the crisis, it is mostly the foreign financial sector that appears to have met U.S. demand for safe and liquid investment assets by expanding its supply of debt securities. We also find a strong negative correlation between the foreign share of the U.S. financial bond portfolio and measures of U.S. safe assets availability: providing evidence on the importance of foreign-issued financial sector debt as a substitute when U.S. issued &amp;#x27;safe&amp;#x27; assets are scarce. Furthermore, although U.S. investors continue to tap foreign financial markets for &amp;#x27;safe&amp;#x27; assets, we show that the type of foreign financial debt that fills this portfolio niche post-crisis is quite different than pre-crisis. Post-crisis, we find that U.S. investors have replaced offshore-issued structured securities with high-grade U.S. dollar-denominated financial debt issued from a small group of OECD countries (most notably Australia and Canada). Lastly, these developments have led to a decline in home bias in the U.S. financial bond portfolio that we are able to document for the first time.
Growth-Led Exports: Implications for the Cross-Country Effects of Shocks to Potential Output
Authors: Gagnon Joseph E.
Published: August 2019

Fast-growing countries tend to experience rapid export growth with little secular change in their terms of trade. This contradicts most international macroeconomic models, which predict that productivity and labor supply shocks can affect exports only through changes in the terms of trade. This paper generalizes the monopolistic competition trade model of Helpman and Krugman (1985), providing a basis for growth-led exports without declining terms of trade. The key mechanism behind this result is that fast-growing countries are able to develop new varieties of products that can be exported without pushing down the prices of existing products. There is strong support for the new model in long-run export growth of many countries in the post-war era. These results have major implications for the analysis of supply shocks in international macroeconomic models.
İskit, Asur ve Perslerin Siyasi ve Kültürel Farklılıkları Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme
Authors: AKKUŞ MUTLU Suzan
Published: August 2019

İskitlerin Anadolu ve Mezopotamya’daki siyasi, askeri, kültürel faaliyetleri hakkındaki bilgilerimizi Asur, Urartu ve Pers kaynaklarından öğrenmekteyiz. M.Ö VIII. yüzyılda yaşanan şiddetli kuraklık sonucu ortaya çıkan kargaşadan dolayı Massagetlerle yaptıkları savaşı kaybeden İskitler, Kimmerlerin ülkesine gelmişlerdir. İçerde isyanlarla uğraşan Kimmerlerin bir kısmı İskitlerin de saldırısı sonucunda göç etmek zorunda kalmışlardır. İskitler bir süre onlarla birlikte yaşadıktan sonra göç eden Kimmerleri takip ederken yollarını şaşırarak Pers topraklarına ulaşmışlardır. Bu iki kavim önce Anadolu daha sonra Mezopotamya toplumlarının siyasî ve kültürel hayatlarını önemli ölçüde etkilemişlerdir. Biz bu makalemizde, İskitler’e ait yazılı belgeler elimize geçmediği için ilişki içerisine girdikleri kavimlerin yazılı belgelerinden ve arkeolojik bulgulardan yola çıkarak, İskit, Asur ve Perslerin kültürel etkileşimlerini, farklılıklarını araştırarak, mukayese edeceğiz.
THE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN BASKETBALL PLAYERS’ TIMES IN THE GAME AND THEIR PERFORMANCE: A COMPARISON OF EUROLEAGUE-EUROBASKET
Authors: ERMİŞ Egemen , ERMİŞ Aydan , ERİLLİ Necati Alp , KONCA Erkan
Published: August 2019

In this study, the performances of the European players in the Euroleague teams at the Eurobasket tournament held at the end of the relevant Euroleague season were investigated. The offensive or defensive performances of the players as a result of increases or decreases in their duration time were investigated and interpreted with statistical tests.While the changes in the players’ times were not found to have an influence on the points they scored and the number of assists (p>0.05), they were found to have an influence on the number of rebounds they got (p<0.05). While statistical difference was found between players in whose rebound averages changes were found (p<0.05), no difference was found in other categories (p>0.05). The increases in the number of points, rebounds and assists of players whose times increased were found to be statistically significant (p<0.05). Similarly, the increases in the average rebounds and assists of players whose times in the game decreased were not found to be statistically significant (p>0.05), however, the increases in numerical values were found to be statistically significant (p<0.05). As a result, it was determined that the players who took less time in their club teams did not perform successfully in the National teams, whereas the players who took enough time in the club teams were successful even if they took less time in the National teams. This problem is thought to be overcome by limiting the number of foreign players in the Basketball Super League in order to pave the way for promising players.
Последствия возможного вступления Республики Беларусь в ВТО: сценарии для сельского хозяйства
Authors: Киселев Сергей Викторович , Строков Антон Сергеевич , Белугин Алексей Юрьевич
Published: August 2019

Проанализировано возможное вступление Республики Беларусь в ВТО. С помощью эконометрической модели EPACIS даны оценки последствий для сельского хозяйства и потребительского рынка страны. Представлены результаты сценариев сокращения господдержки сельского хозяйства Республики Беларусь.
SAĞLIĞIN SOSYAL BİR BELİRLEYİCİSİ: SAĞLIK OKURYAZARLIĞI A SOCIAL DETERMINANT OF HEALTH: HEALTH LITERACY
Authors: GÖZLÜ Kenan
Published: August 2019

Öz

Sağlıklı olmak her
bireyin en temel haklarından birisidir. Bunun için hem sağlık kurumlarına, hem
de bireylere önemli sorumluluklar düşmektedir. Bireylere düşen sorumluluk
sağlık ve hastalıklarla ilgili bilgi sahibi olmak, sağlık sorunları ile
karşılaşmalarını azaltacak bir yaşam tarzı benimsemektir. Bununla birlikte
bireylerin sağlığını biyolojik, çevresel ve sosyal birçok faktör
etkilemektedir. Sağlığı etkileyen sosyal faktörlerden birisi sağlık
okuryazarlığıdır. Sağlık eşitsizliklerinin ve sağlık maliyetlerinin azaltılmasında
önemli etkileri bulunan sağlık
okuryazarlığı, sağlığın en güçlü sosyal belirleyicileri arasındadır. Yapılan
araştırmalar bireylerin sağlık okuryazarlığı düzeyinin sağlık statüsü
ile ilgili en güçlü göstergelerden birisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ancak bireylerin
farklı sosyal imkanlara sahip olması, gelişen teknoloji ile birlikte sağlık
sisteminden beklentilerin artması ve sağlık bilgisinin karmaşık bir yapıya
bürünmesi bireylerin sağlık okuryazarlığı düzeyinin yükseltilmesini
zorlaştırmaktadır. Dolayısıyla öncelikli olarak bireylerin sağlık okuryazarlığı
düzeyinin belirlenmesi, sağlık ve eğitim başta olmak üzere multidisipliner
çalışmaların yapılması, farkındalığın sağlanması, politik desteğin
oluşturulması gerekmektedir. AbstractBeing healthy is
one of the most basic rights of each individual. In order for this goal being
achieved, both health institutions and individuals have important
responsibilities. The responsibility of individuals is to have knowledge about
health and diseases and to adopt a lifestyle that will reduce their encounter
with health problems. However, there are many biological, environmental and
social factors affecting the health of individuals. Health literacy is one of
the social factors affecting health. Health literacy, which has important
effects on reducing health inequalities and health costs, is among the
strongest social determinants of health. Researchs shows that health literacy
level of individuals is one of the strongest indicators of health status.
However, the fact that individuals have different social opportunities, the
increase in the expectations from the health system along with the developing
technology, and the complexity of health information make it difficult for
individuals to increase the level of health literacy. Therefore, it is needed
to determine the level of health literacy of individuals, to conduct
multidisciplinary studies, especially in health and education, to ensure
awareness and to establish political support.

Keywords: Health, social determinant,
health literacy.
Exploring Students' Learning Styles in Using Mobile Flipped Classroom
Authors: Halili Siti Hajar , Sulaiman Shukri , Sulaiman Hamidah , Razak Rafiza
Published: August 2019

This study aims to identify students’ learning styles of using mobile flipped classroom approach. The theoretical foundation for this study is based on Grasha-Reichmann learning styles and the flipped design of this study is based on Halili flipped learning 4.0 framework. 52 respondents answered the questionnaire distributed to them. The SPSS software version 20 was utilised to analyse the data and collected data were analyzed using descriptive statistics (means, standard deviations). This study showed that collaborative learning style recorder higher mean value as compared to others learning styles such as independent, dependent, competitive, avoidant and participative. It was found that the mobile flipped classroom approach in this research is capable of promoting collaborative learning in teaching and learning process. Researchers suggest that further studies should explore other learning style theories, use varieties of technological tools as well as include a larger sample from different institutions.
Siege of Violent Crimes through Economic Complexity and Institutions
Authors: Madni Ghulam Rasool , Khan Bismillah
Published: August 2019

This study is an effort to explore the determinants of violent crimes by using the panel data of 34 countries covering the time span from 2000 to 2014. The robust least square technique is applied for empirical analysis. The findings of the study reveal that the economic complexity, institutions and per capita income have significant negative impact while economic misery and population growth have significant positive relationship on violent crimes. Moreover, efficient institutions have prime importance to curb the crimes in a society. The better provision of knowledge and highly skilled labor force in an efficient institutional environment for alleviation of crimes is suggested as a policy tool. Additionally, serious efforts to decrease the economic misery and population growth are need of the hour to overcome the crimes.
AMEND: Open Source and Data-Driven Oversight of Water Quality in New England
Authors: Sanders Nathan Edward
Published: August 2019

The advent of government transparency through online data publication should provide a transformative benefit to the information gathering practices of civic organizations and environmental advocates. However, environmental agencies and other reporters often disseminate this critical data only in siloed repositories and in technically complex, inconsistent formats, limiting its impact. We have developed a new open source web resource, the Archive of Massachusetts ENvironmental Data or AMEND, which curates information relating to federal, state, and local environmental stewardship in Massachusetts, focused on water quality. We describe the construction of AMEND, its operation, and the datasets we have integrated to date. This tool supports the development and advocacy of policy positions with published analyses that are fully reproducible, versioned, and archived online. As a case study, we present the first publicly reported analysis of the distributional impact of combined sewer overflows on Environmental Justice (EJ) communities. Our analysis of the historical geospatial distribution of these sewer overflows and block-level US Census data on EJ indicators tracking race, income, and linguistic isolation demonstrates that vulnerable communities in Massachusetts are significantly overburdened by this form of pollution. We discuss applications of this analysis to the state-level legislative process in Massachusetts. We believe that this approach to increasing the accessibility of regulatory data, and the code underlying AMEND, can serve as a model for other civic organizations seeking to leverage data to build trust with and advocate to policymakers and the public.
‘Removing Barriers’ and ‘Creating Distance’: Exploring the Logics of Efficiency and Trust in Civic Technology
Authors: Corbett Eric , Le Dantec Christopher A.
Published: August 2019

Oriented around efficiency, civic technology primarily aims to remove barriers by automating and streamlining processes of government. While removing barriers is vital in many matters of governance, should it always be the aim of civic technology? In our ongoing ethnographic research to understand the work of community engagement performed by public officials in local government, we have observed how this orientation around efficiency in civic technology can inadvertently create distance in the relationships between citizens and governments. In this article, we discuss how an orientation around trust could open a space for civic technology that primarily aims to close distance in the relationships between citizens and public officials. We do so by first providing an account of how trust functions in the work of public officials performing community engagement, calling attention to where and when efficiency is at odds with the importance of relationship building between public officials and citizens. We build on ethnographic findings and a series of co-design activities with public officials to develop three strategies that operate under the logic of trust: historicizing engagement, focusing on experience, and mediating expectations. In all, by focusing on trust and the relational work of closing distance, civic technology can move towards addressing the growing crisis in confidence being faced in democracies.
HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE CONCEPT OF NON-VIOLATION COMPLAINTS IN INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC LAW
Authors: Skrynka D.V.
Published: August 2019

The article contains a brief review of historical roots and process of development of the non-violation clauses in various international legal agreements, including the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade and other WTO agreements. It points out the connection between the gradual transition from conditional to unconditional most-favored-nation treatment and the introduction of the clause about nullification or impairment of benefits. Finally, the article points out the fact that even though the WTO system of legal rules is much more detailed than the GATT system of legal rules, the non-non-violation clause not only remained in the original text of the GATT, but also was included in a number of other WTO agreements.
The article notes that the very need to introduce non-violation clauses in international trade treaties is connected with the global process of gradual introduction of unconditional most favored treatment clauses (in contrast to earlier treaty practice, where most-favored-nation treatment was provided on a conditional basis).
The article points out that one of the earliest attempts to establish the principle of unconditional most-favored-nation treatment as a global uniform approach was made at the London World Economic Conference, the most ambitious global attempt to do so before the successful conclusion of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade in 1947.
Even though the original cause for non-violation complaints has been a relatively limited scope of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, the significant expansion of the scope of application of this multilateral trade system as a result of the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations did not result in the removal of the original non-violation clause from the text of the GATT. Moreover, non-violation clauses were included in a number of other WTO agreements. This, in turn, leads to a question, whether indeed it would be possible at any time in the future to conclude an international trade agreement, which would cover each and every measure affecting international trade, available to national governments.
TRAVAUX PREPARATOIRES: APPLICATION BY THE INTERNATIONAL COURT OF JUSTICE IN INTERPRETATION OF INTERNATIONAL LAW
Authors: Karvatska S.
Published: August 2019

The article is devoted to the analysis of the nature, essence and mechanism of the application of travaux preparatoires by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in the process of interpreting the international law. It is proved that the interpretational practice of the ICJ shows the extension of the doctrinal approaches of the traditional perception of travaux preparatoires as an auxiliary tool. It has been established that the ICJ uses travaux preparatoires 1 to identify the intent of the legislator; 2 to provide advisory opinions; 3 to clarify the intentions of the parties to the treaty; 4) to determine the jurisdiction of the ICJ; 5) to identify the true intentions of the parties to the dispute; 6) to decide questions regarding the text, context, purpose and object of the treaty as a general rule of interpretation, fixed in Art. 31 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, 1969.
TEACHER CANDIDATES’ OPINIONS ABOUT COOPERATIVE E-PORTFOLIO ACTIVITIES IN THE BLOG ENVIRONMENT
Authors: ORHAN-KARSAK H. Gülhan
Published: August 2019

In this study, it is aimed to reveal the opinions of the pre-service teacher
candidates attending the Pedagogical Formation Education Certificate Program in
the 2015-2016 academic year on the use of blogs with small and large groups in
the teaching process, and to determine their views on the integration of
various activities in different sub-processes of teaching. For this purpose,
two classes were studied. First class was divided into groups and each group
worked on its own blog page, and the second class was divided into groups to
allow all groups to work on a single blog page. In the Instructional
Technologies and Material Design course, the activities held every week were
shared in the blog environment and comments were made. Pre-service teacher
candidates’ opinions were taken in writing. In this context, the study is a
qualitative case study. The findings were analyzed by using content analysis
method and presented as themes and supported with visuals.
MATEMATİK ÖĞRETMEN ADAYLARININ MOBİL ÖĞRENME HAZIRBULUNUŞLUK DÜZEYLERİNİN İNCELENMESİ
Authors: AÇIKGÜL Kübra
Published: August 2019

Bu
araştırmanın amacı matematik öğretmen adaylarının mobil öğrenmeye yönelik
hazırbulunuşluk düzeylerini belirlemektir. Ayrıca araştırmada matematik
öğretmen adaylarının mobil öğrenmeye yönelik hazırbulunuşluk düzeylerinin
cinsiyet, sınıf düzeyi, mobil teknoloji kullanma yeterliliği, mobil teknoloji
kullanma sıklığı, mobil teknolojileri matematiği öğrenme sürecinde kullanma
sıklığı, gelecekte mobil teknolojileri matematik derslerinde kullanma niyeti
değişkenleri açısından incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Araştırma betimsel tarama
ve nedensel karşılaştırma yaklaşımının kullanıldığı ilişkisel tarama modelleri
ile gerçekleştirilmiştir. Araştırma 256 ilköğretim matematik öğretmen adayının
katılımıyla gerçekleştirilmiştir. Araştırmada veri toplama aracı olarak Kişisel
bilgi Formu ve 7’li likert tipte Mobil Öğrenmeye Yönelik Hazırbulunuşluk Ölçeği
kullanılmıştır. Araştırma sonucunda matematik öğretmen adaylarının mobil
öğrenmeye yönelik hazırbulunuşluklarının “Kısmen Katılıyorum” kategorisinde
olduğu belirlenmiştir. Matematik öğretmen adaylarının mobil öğrenmeye yönelik
hazırbulunuşluk düzeylerinin cinsiyet ve sınıf düzeyi değişkenleri açısından
istatistiksel olarak anlamlı düzeyde farklılaşmadığı görülmüştür. Diğer
taraftan araştırmada matematik öğretmen adaylarının mobil öğrenmeye yönelik
hazırbulunuşluk düzeylerinin mobil teknoloji kullanma yeterliliği, mobil
teknoloji kullanma sıklığı, mobil teknolojileri matematiği öğrenme sürecinde
kullanma sıklığı, gelecekte mobil teknolojileri matematik derslerinde kullanma
niyeti değişkenleri açısından istatistiksel olarak anlamlı düzeyde
farklılaştığı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır.
La marca figurado en los diccionarios de uso
Authors: González Pérez Rosario
Published: August 2019

La marca figurado en los diccionarios de uso.
La lematización de voces homónimas en los diccionarios actuales del español
Authors: Perdiguero Villareal Hermógenes
Published: August 2019

La lematización de voces homónimas en los diccionarios actuales del español.
Atención en salud basada en el valor
Authors: Valencia Mayer Catalina
Published: August 2019

Reseña
Vigilantes de la salud
Authors: Ibánez Pinilla Edgar Antonio
Published: August 2019

El Instituto Nacional de Salud de Colombia (INS) es una organización pública del sector salud y de ciencia y tecnología, con la misión de contribuir a la salud pública y a la seguridad sanitaria de los colombianos. Este Instituto comenzó como una entidad privada el 24 de Enero de 1917, como iniciativa de los doctores Bernardo Samper Sordo y Jorge Martínez (2).

En conmemoración de los 100 años cumplidos del Instituto Nacional de Salud en el año 2017, se ha publicado el libro “Vigilante de la Salud” por parte de Carlos F. Dáguer, su prólogo fue escrito por el Ministro de Salud y Protección Social de la época Alejandro Gaviria y la presentación por parte de la doctora Martha Lucía Ospina Martínez actual directora del INS.