bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
ORGANIZATIONAL CHOICE AND SOME CORRELATES OF INDIVIDUALS' EXPECTANCIES1
Authors: Oldham Greg R.
Published: June 2007

This study uses expectancy theory to predict the sorority choices of 121 undergraduate students. Results show that the complete, multiplicative expectancy model is only a slightly better predictor of choice behavior than other versions of the model. Several personal and situational correlates of individuals' expectancies of entering sororities also are examined. Results show significant relationships between expectancy and subjects' self‐esteem, perception of value similarity with sorority members, and number of perceived friendships with sorority members.
DISAGGREGATION IN MANUFACTURING AND SERVICE ORGANIZATIONS: SURVEY OF PROBLEMS AND RESEARCH
Authors: Buffa Elwood S. , Krajewski LeRoy J. , Ritzman Larry P.
Published: June 2007

This paper addresses a class of problems, referred to as “disaggregation problems,” which lie between planning at the top level and the more detailed decisions of inventory control and scheduling at the bottom level. Most real‐world problems are sufficiently complex to warrant a sequential or top‐down approach to problem solving. However, researchers have paid scant attention to disaggregation until very recently. The resulting lack of an interfacing mechanism diminishes the utility of solution procedures for aggregate planning, inventory control, and scheduling. In order to draw attention to this gap, a taxonomy of disaggregation problems is developed for both manufacturing and service organizations. The purpose is to identify and classify problems, describe representative research, and identify unresolved issues.
AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ROLLING SCHEDULES IN PRODUCTION PLANNING
Authors: Baker Kenneth R.
Published: June 2007

An experimental study was designed to investigate the efficiency of decisions obtained from optimizing a finite, multiperiod model and implementing (structure is parallel with “optimizing” above) those decisions on a rolling basis. The results of the study suggest that rolling schedules are quite efficient and also that they point to some important design issues in model‐building for production planning.
INVENTORY DECISIONS UNDER INFLATIONARY CONDITIONS
Authors: Bierman Harold , Thomas Joseph
Published: June 2007

The standard approach to inventory policy ignores the effect of inflation. This paper investigates a model that includes both inflationary trends and time discounting. The paper compares this model with the standard EOQ model and the analysis for a one‐time change, found in previous literature.
CUMULATIVE ADVERTISING EFFECTS: THE ROLE OF SERIAL CORRELATION; A REPLY
Authors: Clarke Darral G. , McCann John M.
Published: June 2007

In a recent paper, Houston and Weiss applied a non‐linear estimation procedure to a serial correlation model of advertising effect. Although the methodology is interesting, their conclusions, based on the annual Lydia Pinkham data, are in error. This paper locates the source of the error and corrects the conclusions. It also applies the Houston and Weiss methodology to the monthly Lydia Pinkham data with interesting results.
REVEALING TIME SERIES INTERRELATIONSHIPS
Authors: Pack David J.
Published: June 2007

Box and Jenkins [3] have specified a procedure for the development of a “transfer function model,” a model which expresses the interrelationships between two time series. Involving the iterative repetition of identification, estimation, and checking stages, this procedure is comparable to their procedure for the development of an autoregressive‐intergrated‐moving average model for a single time series. The transfer function model development procedure has not been widely applied due to the absence of explanations understandable to the non‐statistician and reasonably priced computer algorithms.

The intent of this paper is to provide the non‐statistician with an explanation of the identification stage of the Box‐Jenkins transfer function model development procedure. An extensive class of possible models is logically developed. The identification stage is specified step‐by‐step and is illustrated by three pairs of generated time series analyzed using computer algorithms written by the author. The paper presumes a general knowledge of the Box‐Jenkins identification procedure for single series models.
TIME‐LAGS IN CROSS‐LAG CORRELATION STUDIES: A COMPUTER SIMULATION
Authors: Sims Henry P. , Wilkerson David A.
Published: June 2007

The cross‐lag correlation method has gained increased use in recent years as a technique which can be used to evaluate causality in longitudinal behavioral research. However, the effect of selecting an incorrect time‐lag has remained largely unexplored. This research reports the results of a computer simulation designed to evaluate what happens to the cross‐lag correlation under different time‐lags. The results of the simulation indicate that the cross‐lag method is relatively insensitive to errors in the selection of the time‐lag. Nevertheless, it is better to err on the “early” side than on the “late” side. A research design is suggested for further empirical investigation of the effect of the choice of time‐lags.
A HEURISTIC PROCEDURE FOR DETERMINING IN‐PROCESS INVENTORIES
Authors: Davis K. Roscoe , Taylor Bernard W.
Published: June 2007

Most prior studies that examine in‐process inventory requirements associated with a manufacturing facility employ an optimizing algorithm; this article proposes a heuristic procedure for determining such requirements. A procedure is given for determining “active” and “banked” work‐in‐process requirements. The two are combined to give total in‐process requirements.

A key factor presented in the paper is the relationship between in‐process inventory requirements and the “balancing” of a production facility. Most prior researchers examine these problems independently. It will be shown that both problems can be resolved concurrently. The concepts are applicable to both an existing as well as a new manufacturing facility.
PORTFOLIO MODELING IN MULTIPLE‐CRITERIA SITUATIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY
Authors: Muhlemann Alan Paul , Lockett Alan Geoffrey , Gear Anthony Edward
Published: June 2007

There have been many models for portfolio selection, but most do not explicitly include uncertainty and multiple objectives. This paper presents an approach that includes these aspects using a form of stochastic integer programming with recourse.

The method involves the use of a time‐based decision tree structure called a “project tree.” Using this basic format, an illustrative six‐project example is presented and analyzed. Various forms of objectives are discussed, ranging from the maximization of expected portfolio value to the maximization of the minimum weighted portfolio deviation from two goals. In each case, formulated numerical problems are given, and the solutions derived are presented. The approach is shown to be very flexible and capable of handling a variety of situations and objectives.
A SIMULATION AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS OF STOCHASTIC VEHICLE ROUTING WITH TIMING CONSTRAINTS
Authors: Cook Thomas M. , Russell Robert A.
Published: June 2007

This paper examines a generalization of the vehicle‐dispatch problem in which time constraints as well as stochastic demand and travel times are considered. The objective is to minimize total travel time subject to vehicle load capacities and sequencing restrictions, meaning that certain points may be serviced only in specified time intervals. Intra‐city travel times are estimated via multiple regression, and an effective heuristic is tested on single‐estimate travel times. A GPSS simulation is used to evaluate the heuristic on stochastic travel times and also to examine the effects of other decision variables such as route configuration. Computational experience with an actual refuse collection problem involving 163 points per day is reported.
THE INTERACTION OF TRANSPORTATION AND INVENTORY DECISIONS
Authors: Constable Gordon K. , Whybark D. Clay
Published: June 2007

The management of inventories and determination of transportation policy are normally carried out by different groups of people in an organization. These activities interact, however, when the transportation is used to replace inventory and when the transportation alternatives have different speed, reliability, and cost characteristics. This paper presents exact and heuristic procedures for jointly determining the inventory reorder points, order quantities, and transportation alternatives that provide minimum total transportation and inventory costs. The effectiveness of each procedure is demonstrated for a broad range of problems. The heuristic procedure was also applied to actual company data to determine the potential for cost savings. The results showed that savings were possible both from improving the current procedures and from applying the procedure developed in this study.
THE SEU CALCULUS: EFFECTS OF RESPONSE MODE, SEX, AND SEX ROLE ON UNCERTAIN DECISIONS *
Authors: Bonoma Thomas V. , Schlenker Barry R.
Published: June 2007

Subjects were instructed on how to use simple subjective probability and utility scales, and they were asked to actively role‐play a decision maker in seven risk‐dilemma situations. Each scenario provided subjects with specific subjective expected utility (SEU) information for both a certain and uncertain decision alternative, but left out one critical SEU component. Subjects supplied either the lowest probability or the lowest utility for success that they found necessary before they would select the uncertain over the certain alternative in each dilemma. Three experiments examined: (a) the degree to which Ss' estimations deviated from a pattern predicted by SEU models; (b) differences in choice patterns induced by response format variations (e.g., probability vs. utility estimation); (c) the effects of sex of S; and (d) the effects of the sex‐role framing of the decision problems. Ss generally chose in accord with SEU maximization principles and did so with decreasing deviations from theoretical values as practice over situations increased (Experiments I, II and III). Decisions were initially more conservative on items requesting probability estimates (Experiment I), but this effect washed out over situations. Sex differences were revealed (Experiments I and III), but in limited fashion. Rather, a replicable (Experiments I, II and III) sex‐by‐sex role appropriateness by response format interaction was found, in which females responded “rationally” under both probability and utility estimation conditions and under both role sets (male and female). Males, however, responded extremely conservatively under female‐framed, probability estimate conditions. Ss' choices were stable over a three‐week interval (Experiment III).
TREATMENT OF DIFFERENTIAL COSTS AND BENEFITS UNDER RISK
Authors: Vedder James N.
Published: June 2007

In management accounting texts, the relevant costs and benefits for decision making are usually defined as those future amounts that differ between pairs of alternatives. Use of differential amounts can lead to erroneous choices in decision making under risk. This paper examines conditions under which the use of differential amounts is and is not appropriate.
A NOTE ON THE ASSESSMENT OF THE RESULTS IN A DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS *
Authors: Gau George W.
Published: June 2007

This paper describes two statistical measures that can be applied to the analysis of the results in a discriminant analysis. These measures, similar to R2 and R2 in multiple regression, assess the “goodness of fit” of the model or the degree of separation established by the discriminant functions among the groups in the sample and in the population.
LINEAR PROGRAMMING WITH DISCRETE STOCHASTIC RESOURCES: AN ALTERNATIVE APPROACH ACCOUNTING FOR INFEASIBILITY*
Authors: Hughes Warren R.
Published: June 2007

In this paper an alternative to, or extension of, the chance‐constrained method of stochastic programming is presented whereby an expected cost of infeasibility is included in the objective function. The problem is to select a solution to implement before the available resources are known where the adaption of a non‐feasible solution to the resources available involves a system cost. While increasing the amount of computation required, the model enables the decision maker to more effectively trade off increased payoff for decreased likelihood of feasibility.
LOCUS OF CONTROL, TRUST, AND DECISION MAKING*
Authors: Bonoma Thomas V. , Johnston Wesley J.
Published: June 2007

A theoretical connection was proposed between certain social personality variables, namely locus of control (Internal or External) and trust (High and Low) and the formal decision‐making model of Subjective Expected Utility (SEU). Rather than adopting the traditional definition of these variables as “generalized expectancies” for behavior of self and others, locus of control and trust were reconceptualized as intrapersonal tendencies to favor, prefer, or otherwise bias the subjective probabilities entering into a decision computation.

S's high in external control orientation did not differ from internals overall, but external males were more risk averse under certain choice conditions (female‐sex‐role appropriate dilemma, probability‐estimate form). Low‐trust S's were also more risk averse than high‐trust S's, overall. Low‐trust males generated maximally risk‐averse choice solutions under the choice condition of feminine role problem appropriateness and probability estimation. In general, female S's made choices that were more consistent with SEU‐predicted solutions than males.
AN ADAPTIVE APPROACH TO TIME‐SERIES FORECASTING
Authors: Bretschneider Stuart , Carbone Robert , Longini Richard L.
Published: June 2007

This paper extends the applicability of the Carbone‐Longini adaptive estimation procedure (AEP) to time‐series forecasting. Comparisons with adaptive filtering, the Box‐Jenkins methodology, and multiple regression analysis as it applies to time‐series analysis are provided. Specific time‐series data examined by Box and Jenkins and Box and Tiao constitute the basis for these comparisons. The analysis of the results indicate the robustness and performance superiority of the simple distributive‐lag forecast model coupled with the concept of adaptively “tracking” rather than “fitting” historical data.
A STRATEGY FOR RISK REDUCTION IN INCENTIVE CONTRACTING*
Authors: Gandhi Devinder K.
Published: June 2007

An important question with respect to government incentive contracts that has received little attention is: What alternatives to the current practice of making single‐stage choices of incentive sharing rates can lead to situations in which these sharing rates can be chosen under reduced risk or cost uncertainty? This paper provides a decision‐theoretic framework that illustrates a possibility of reducing risk, from the viewpoints of both the contracting parties, given some negotiated estimate of costs to be incurred. It is shown that such a possibility can arise in a situation in which it is technically feasible to separate or partition the contractual work into closely related tasks or units. Specifically, it is demonstrated that for a given cost estimate (target cost) and target profit, a set of optimal sharing rates (one for each unit) yields a higher risk‐adjusted value of the contract than the single‐stage sharing rate for the entire contract.
EVOLUTION OF THE PRODUCTIVE SEGMENT AND TRANSPORTATION INNOVATIONS*
Authors: Ettlie John E.
Published: June 2007

An evolutionary model of the development of the process segment of a firm is reviewed and the degree to which this model is appropriate for description of the innovation process in transportation firms is evaluated. In a sample of thirty‐four transportation innovations it was found that: (1) transportation firms in stage I of the evolution of the productive segment are more likely to adopt service innovations, while firms in stage III are more likely to adopt innovations designed to improve the process (p < .05); (2) no statistically significant results were found to support the hypothesis that stage I transportation firms originate more innovations than stage III firms, although the results were in the predicted direction (.10 < p < .15); (3) stage I transportation firms are more likely to adopt or consider for adoption lower‐cost innovations than stage III firms (p < .05), which is contrary to the hypothesized direction of this relationship. It was also found that transportation firms tend to originate new service innovations but adopt new process innovations (p < .05), regardless of stage of development. It was concluded that it would be premature to eliminate the model as a candidate for further empirical testing. Problems and possible revision of the model are discussed.
AN EXTENSION OF WOLFE'S STUDY OF SIMULATION GAME COMPLEXITY*
Authors: Butler Richard J. , Pray Thomas F. , Strang Daniel R.
Published: June 2007

This study is an extension of recently reported research concerning the relationships between business simulation game complexity and student perceptions of “learning,”“monotony,” and “appropriateness of challenge.” A game of intermediate‐level complexity was used at two education levels. Findings from the current study are compared with findings from an earlier study's intermediate‐level complexity game. A number of questions with respect to the earlier findings are raised.
QUESTIONNAIRE VALIDATION BY CONFIRMATORY FACTOR ANALYSIS: AN IMPROVEMENT OVER MULTITRAIT‐MULTIMETHOD MATRICES*
Authors: Elbert Norbert F.
Published: June 2007

The Campbell and Fiske criteria for assessing the construct validity of multitrait‐multimethod (MTMM) matrices has had a long history of use. While various statistical techniques, including ANOVA, have attempted to provide rigor to the MTMM matrix design, numerous problems still remain unsolved. Part of the problem in using an MTMM matrix is the assumption of measurement independence. This study attempts to illustrate the misleading inferences that often occur from MTMM analysis when method variance overlap is not accurately assessed. Three questionnaires were designed that were not method independent. Traditional procedures for assessing MTMM matrices suggested the three scaling formats used were not burdened with unusual method variance. A reanalysis of the MTMM matrix employing a Confirmatory Factor Analysis technique illustrated that method variance was a problem. Finally, the need for studies that concentrate on the nature of method variance, its causes and effects, is discussed.
METHODS FOR ANALYZING EXPERIMENTS WITH MULTIPLE CRITERIA*
Authors: Messmer Donald J. , Homans Richard E.
Published: June 2007

An approach to analyzing experimental data with multiple criteria is explained and demonstrated on data from a test of the effectiveness of two posters. As a supplement to traditional multivariate analysis of variance and covariance, the application of a step‐down F test is advocated when an ordering of the criterion is meaningful, and an analysis of contrasts is recommended when such an ordering is not managerially relevant. The step‐down procedure has the advantage of simultaneously testing an overall hypothesis and hypotheses on each criterion variable.
STOCHASTIC LINEAR PROGRAMMING WITH RECOURSE: A TUTORIAL*
Authors: Hansotia Behram J.
Published: June 2007

Presented here is an introduction to stochastic linear programs with recourse. The paper is by no means a comprehensive survey of the field; that would be an encyclopedic task at best. This paper discusses formulation, interpretation, and computational aspects of stochastic linear programs with simple and fixed recourse. The paper is pedagogical in nature and is aimed to whet the interest of the decision scientist that has little or no background in stochastic programming. Moreover, the papers in this field have appeared in diverse journals not always readily available to the typical management scientist or practitioner and quite often at a very sophisticated mathematical level. For the practitioner, Wets's algorithm for solving stochastic linear programs with simple recourse may be particularly interesting since Wets shows in that paper how the problem can be reduced to an equivalent deterministic linear program of the same dimensionality.
PORTFOLIO MODELING IN MULTIPLE‐CRITERIA SITUATIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY: COMMENT
Authors: Harrington Thomas C. , Fischer William A.
Published: June 2007

In a recent issue of Decision Sciences, Muhlemann, Lockett, and Gear [8] developed a multiple‐objective, stochastic linear programming formulation of the multiperiod portfolio selection problem under uncertainty. The purpose of this note is to offer some extensions to their multicriteria approach which is otherwise viewed as an excellent attempt at modeling realistic aspects of the portfolio selection problem. Further, integer goal programming combined with simulation is suggested as an alternate approach for solving the dynamic multiple‐objective problem.
ON THE CHOICE OF REALTOR
Authors: Janssen C. T. L. , Jobson J. D.
Published: June 2007

The paper presents a multivariate analysis of single‐family‐home sales data to investigate differences in performance among real estate firms. The decision considered is which firm should be chosen by a homeowner selling through an agent.

Factor analysis of property features was used to obtain orthogonal dimensions. This permitted analysis of the influence of other variables with only limited multicollinearity. Broker effects on listing and selling price were studied through regression analysis with dummy variables and slope shifters on the factors and through analysis of variance on the regression residuals after removal of house characteristics. A number of performance differences of consequence for the choice of selling agent were observed. Some of the reasons for these differences are discussed.
ASSESSING THE EXTREMES OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS BY THE FRACTILE METHOD*
Authors: Selvidge J. E.
Published: June 2007

When people are asked to express uncertainty in the form of probability distributions (by assessing several fractiles of the cumulative distributions), experiments have shown that most subjects exhibit systematic biases in describing the extremes or tails of the distributions. This paper discusses methods designed to refine the assessments of such extremes of probability distributions. The techniques were tested on large samples of assessors; the effectiveness of different methods is reported. The methods include asking for the assessment of additional fractiles in the extremes, asking for different fractiles in the extremes (.10 and .90 instead of .01 and .99 fractiles), making the assessment a two‐step process by separating the questions about central fractiles from those requesting extreme values, and varying the order in which different fractile values are requested. All these methods except the two‐step process resulted in improved estimation of the extreme values of the distributions when compared to some of the early work in this field where five fractile assessments were made.
SCHEDULING TO MINIMIZE MAKESPAN ON UNEQUAL PARALLEL PROCESSORS
Authors: De Prabuddha , Morton Thomas E.
Published: June 2007

The problem of scheduling n independent jobs on m unequal parallel processors to minimize makespan is known to be very difficult for the nonpreemptive case. Until recently, research on this problem has consisted primarily of investigating the “worst case” behavior for simple approximation algorithms for the special cases of equal or uniform processors. Recently, Ibarra and Kim [10] have completed a similar analysis on five simple heuristics for general unequal processors. The approach in the present paper is to investigate the “average” behavior via large‐scale computational testing. A new heuristic is devised. It is tested on a large number of problems (about 9,000) for both uniform and general processors, and the results are compared with the best solutions obtained from a truncated branch‐and‐bound procedure. It is observed that, although the heuristic takes negligible time compared to the branch‐and‐bound procedure, on the average it is within 5 percent of the latter in the uniform case and within 1.3 percent in the general case. It also performs better than a composite heuristic whose output, for any given problem, is the best of all previously suggested heuristics.
A MINIMUM‐COST AUDIT SAMPLING METHODOLOGY UNDER CONDITIONS OF PREDETERMINED BETA RISK
Authors: Boockholdt James L. , Finley D. R.
Published: June 2007

This paper presents a minimum‐cost methodology for determining a statistical sampling plan in substantive audit tests. In this model, the auditor specifies β, the risk of accepting an account balance as correct when it is not, according to audit evidence requirements. Using β as a constraint, the auditor then selects a sampling plan to optimize the trade‐off between sampling costs and the costs of follow‐up audit procedures. Tables to aid in this process and an illustration are provided.
A NOTE ON MODELING PROJECT INTERDEPENDENCE IN RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT*
Authors: Gear Tony E. , Cowie Grant C.
Published: June 2007

This note is concerned with the problem of resource allocation under uncertainty in a research and development laboratory. A distinction is defined between project interrelationships that are specific (or internal) to certain projects and interrelationships resulting from external environmental factors. Formulations are introduced that allow both types of interrelationships to be formally included in a resource allocation optimization model. In the case of external environmental factors, an example is presented and analyzed.
Applications and Implementation
Authors: Freed Ned , Glover Fred
Published: June 2007

We propose an alternative solution to the discriminant problem, one that requires little more than a minimum familiarity with linear programming. The approach shows promise for eliminating the complexities of conventional statistical approaches without sacrificing the essential power of existing methods.
AN APPLICATION OF MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING TO HIGHER EDUCATION
Authors: Cox James F. , Jesse Richard R.
Published: June 2007

Material requirements planning (MRP), a comprehensive planning and control technique based upon the dependent demand principle, enables manufacturing organizations to provide better customer service, reduce inventory investment, and increase resource utilization. This paper extends the dependent demand principle to the service sector and thus provides the basis for applying MRP to higher education. In the short run, administrators can schedule the necessary number of required courses and load each course based on student priorities to provide increased customer (i.e., student) service and faculty utilization. In the long run, course enrollment forecasts can be utilized by administrators to plan and control changes in faculty resources across departments and schools.
HOSPITAL ADMINISTRATOR FELT NEEDS FOR INTERORGANIZATIONAL COOPERATION AND ACTUAL COOPERATIVE OUTCOMES BY THEIR HOSPITALS
Authors: Schermerhorn John R. , Shirland Larry E.
Published: June 2007

This paper presents an empirical analysis of the determinants of interorganizational cooperation among hospitals. Hospital administrator felt needs for programs of interhospital cooperation and actual cooperative outcomes by their hospitals are examined. A combination of survey and archival data is used to test several research hypotheses. Results support separating the interorganizational activities of hospitals into those related to medical and those related to ancillary service areas. Felt needs to cooperate in both service areas are influenced by administrators' concerns for hospital autonomy and image in interorganizational relations. Perceived availability of cooperation partners affects felt needs to cooperate only in the area of medical services. Actual levels of cooperative activity in medical services are related to perceived manpower resource scarcity, historical levels of cooperation, and concerns for hospital image in interorganizational relations. In ancillary services, actual levels of cooperation were related to perceived financial resource scarcity, historical levels of cooperation, and perceived availability of cooperation partners. Felt needs to cooperate were not associated with actual cooperative outcomes in either service area. The results contain implications for future research into the decision processes that give rise to interorganizational relationships of cooperation.
PERCEIVED INFORMATION STRUCTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM DESIGN
Authors: Watkins Paul R.
Published: June 2007

Top‐level decision making in business organizations is characterized by high degrees of uncertainty, incomplete information, and conflicting objectives. To support top‐level decision making effectively, decision support systems (DSSs) have been proposed. Information supplied by a DSS must be selective in that not all possible information sets may be feasibly or economically represented in the data base. This study suggests that discovery of perceptual complexity (dimensionality) of information items, and the subsequent categorization of decision makers having the same perceptions of those information items, is a first step in the ultimate design of an effective DSS. Through the use of multidimensional scaling in a field setting, this study shows the feasibility of creating relatively homogeneous groups of decision makers according to the content and number of dimensions associated with various information items. Further results of the research suggest that information can be tailored to classes of users, which has cost‐benefit implications as well as the potential to improve the quality of the resultant decisions.
AN EXPERIMENTAL COMPARISON OF STATISTICAL AND LINEAR PROGRAMMING APPROACHES TO THE DISCRIMINANT PROBLEM
Authors: Bajgier Steve M. , Hill Arthur V.
Published: June 2007

This paper reports the results of an experimental comparison of three linear programming approaches and the Fisher procedure for the discriminant problem. The linear programming approaches include two formulations proposed by Freed and Glover and a newly proposed mixed‐integer, linear goal programming formulation.

Ten test problems were generated for each of the 36 cells in the three‐factor, full‐factorial experimental design. Each test problem consisted of a 30‐case estimation sample and a 1,000‐case holdout sample. Experimental results indicate that each of the four approaches was statistically preferable in certain cells of the experimental design. Sample‐based rules are suggested for selecting an approach based on Hotelling's T2 and Box's M statistics.

Subject Areas: Statistical Techniques, Linear Statistical Models, and Linear Programming.
A SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE ON MATERIAL REQUIREMENTS PLANNING*
Authors: Morecroft John D. W.
Published: June 2007

For many companies, the implementation of material requirements planning systems has failed to produce the expected improvements in manufacturing efficiency. This paper shows that MRP failure can occur in the common situation in which MRP is installed in a manufacturing environment that has evolved around manual methods of material control. A system dynamics simulation model is used to interrelate decision functions (policies) of a manufacturing firm. Simulation runs of the model operating with manual methods of material control show six‐ to seven‐year fluctuations in production, ordering, and labor. A modified version of the model, changed only by the introduction of a requirements explosion to represent MRP, shows that MRP can actually cause more severe production fluctuations, resulting in lower average labor productivity and higher manufacturing costs. The major practical implication of the analysis is that the organizational environment that suits MRP (and utilizes its inherent strengths) is different from the environment that is likely to prevail at the time of implementation.
EMPIRICAL INVENTORY SIMULATION: A CASE STUDY*
Authors: Kaplan Alan , Frazza Sally
Published: June 2007

An empirical simulation was used to investigate the economics of minimum‐buy policies in the U.S. Army management of spare‐parts inventory. An empirical simulation makes use of historical data as direct input to the simulation rather than randomly generated data based on a characterization of the historical data. Empirical simulation alleviates the drawbacks of characterizing historical data with a theoretical distribution; however, because steady‐state conditions are not reached, a methodological problem arises in the evaluation of inventory assets at the end of the simulation. Our solution was to minimize this problem by use of a cyclic approach.
A PREEMPTIVE VALUE‐FUNCTION METHOD APPROACH FOR MULTIOBJECTIVE LINEAR PROGRAMMING PROBLEMS
Authors: Ringuest Jeffrey L. , Gulledge Thomas R.
Published: June 2007

Many common decision‐making situations require integration of a number of objectives or goals into a single objective function to be optimized. A number of techniques for performing this analysis are presented in the literature. These procedures generally require a tradeoff between realism and tractability. The present approach uses the idea of preemptive priority levels with an approximate value function at each level. An efficient experimental design is used to assess directly a quadratic approximation of the multiattribute value functions. An existing algorithm is then used to solve the resulting problem. This procedure is shown to give good results when compared to both the value‐function method and goal programming.
PLANNING FOR TRUCK FLEET SIZE IN THE PRESENCE OF A COMMON‐CARRIER OPTION
Authors: Ball M. O. , Golden B. L. , Assad A. A. , Bodin L. D.
Published: June 2007

This paper considers a class of network optimization problems in which certain directed arcs must be covered by a set of cycles. Our study was motivated by a distribution planning problem of a commercial firm that had to make deliveries over several origin‐destination pairs (directed arcs) and that could service any demand arc by using a vehicle in its own fleet or by paying a common carrier. The problem is to determine an optimal fleet size and the resulting vehicle routes while satisfying maximum route‐time restrictions. We formulate the problem, describe some approximate solution strategies, and discuss important implementation issues.
MODELING LEARNING CURVE AND LEARNING COMPLEMENTARITY FOR RESOURCE ALLOCATION AND PRODUCTION SCHEDULING*
Authors: Chen Joyce T.
Published: June 2007

Research on learning effects in mathematical programming models for optimum resource allocation has called attention to the difficulty in solving such models in their original nonlinear form. In this paper, systematically varying sizes of linear segments are designed to approximate productivity changes along the learning curve, and a single separable linear programming model is developed. With production complementarity and learning transmission between products, a more realistic resource allocation and production scheduling problem emerges. Two cases of learning transmissions are considered, and the model design process, which defines a decision problem that can be solved by a simplex algorithm, is demonstrated.
A MULTIATTRIBUTE DECISION‐MAKING APPROACH TO THE SELECTION OF AN AUXILIARY DEVICE FOR ICEBREAKERS*
Authors: Hannan Edward L. , Smith Joseph A. , Gilbert G. Ronald
Published: June 2007

This paper describes the use of multiattribute decision making by the U.S. Coast Guard when choosing the most appropriate auxiliary device to use on an icebreaker. Five different missions of icebreakers are defined, and the objectives and attributes that describe the effectiveness of each auxiliary device in accomplishing these missions are established. For each geographical area of interest, the missions are weighted using the analytical hierarchy process. Also, group utilities are developed for attribute vectors in order to incorporate the judgments of different icebreaker operators.
TOWARD UNDERSTANDING THE CONTENTS OF THE “BLACK BOX” FOR PREDICTING COMPLEX DECISION‐MAKING OUTCOMES
Authors: Holt Robert N. , Scarpello Vida , Carroll Raymond J.
Published: June 2007

The purpose of this research is to show the usefulness of three relatively simple nonlinear classification techniques for policy‐capturing research where linear models have typically been used. This study uses 480 cases to assess the decision‐making process used by 24 experienced national bank examiners in classifying commercial loans as acceptable or questionable. The results from multiple discriminant analysis (a linear technique) are compared to those of chi‐squared automatic interaction detector analysis (a search technique), log‐linear analysis, and logit analysis. Results show that while the four techniques are equally accurate in predicting loan classification, chi‐squared automatic interaction detector analysis (CHAID) and log‐linear analysis enable the researcher to analyze the decision‐making structure and examine the “human” variable within the decision‐making process. Consequently, if the sole purpose of research is to predict the decision maker's decisions, then any one of the four techniques turns out to be equally useful. If, however, the purpose is to analyze the decision‐making process as well as to predict decisions, then CHAID or log‐linear techniques are more useful than linear model techniques.
ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITIES WITH QUANTITY DISCOUNTS: GRANDMA DOES IT BEST
Authors: Rubin Paul A. , Dilts David M. , Barron Beth A.
Published: June 2007

We examine a new algorithm developed by Kuzdrall and Britney [5] for locating the optimal order quantity in the presence of quantity discounts. Their algorithm, based on a model for the supplier's formulation of the price schedule, involves a regression analysis to identify the supplier's variable cost per unit and the fixed cost that the supplier seeks to recover, followed by an iterative search for the optimum. The authors describe this method as a “convenient alternative to the aimless searching of traditional approaches” [5, p. 101]. We examine the allegation of superiority of their total setup lot‐sizing model over the classical method and dispute their claim of superiority.
SMALL PANELS OF EXPERTS IN DICHOTOMOUS CHOICE SITUATIONS*
Authors: Nitzan Shmuel , Paroush Jacob
Published: June 2007

This paper analyzes an expert resolution problem under an uncertain dichotomous choice situation. The experts share a common system of norms and therefore they all prefer the alternative that best suits their purpose. The selection of such an alternative is referred to as a correct choice. Our analysis of optimal decision rules for panels of independent experts is pursued for n‐member decision‐making bodies, n≤ 5. The suggested optimality criterion is the maximization of the probability of the panel's making the correct choice. Within our framework, this criterion is equivalent to the more common criterion of expected‐utility maximization. For three‐member panels of experts, the expert resolution problem is solved and illustrated by means of a medical application. For four‐member panels, we list the three relevant decision rules, specify the conditions for all possible rankings of these rules, and, finally, present an extended consulting application. We conclude by listing seven relevant decision rules in the case of five‐member decision‐making bodies.
COMPLEX MULTIECHELON INVENTORY SYSTEM MANAGEMENT USING A DYNAMIC SIMULATION MODEL
Authors: Clark Thomas D. , Trempe Robert E. , Trichlin Herbert E.
Published: June 2007

A dynamic modeling approach to management of multiechelon, multi‐indenture inventory systems with repair is addressed. The structure of the model follows that of the U.S. Air Force Reparable Asset Management System. The model is used as a vehicle to discuss the structure of typical multiechelon systems and to illustrate the advantages of a dynamic modeling approach to such systems.
SIMULATION OF A CRISIS MANAGEMENT INFORMATION NETWORK: A SERENDIPITOUS EVALUATION
Authors: Belardo Salvatore , Pazer Harold L. , Wallace William A. , Danko William D.
Published: June 2007

An experimental design responsive to a unique opportunity to evaluate the effectiveness of simulation as a training, research, and design environment for crisis management was developed when an actual crisis situation occurred less than a week after the authors had observed and evaluated a full‐scale training simulation. The crisis event at the Robert E. Ginna nuclear facility in upstate New York paralleled the simulation in location, content, and scope. The results reported in this paper are based upon a combination of personal interviews and the analysis of written communication logs. Hypotheses were tested concerning the predictive dimensions of the simulation with respect to individual descriptors related to stress and response capabilities, communication descriptors related to content and frequency, and network descriptors related to structure and utilization. The results are interpreted in the context of implications for training, research, and design.
SHAREHOLDER LIMITED LIABILITY AND MEAN‐VARIANCE MODELS OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE*
Authors: Rhee S. Ghon
Published: June 2007

This paper demonstrates that shareholder limited liability imposes a restriction on corporate borrowing and that failure to incorporate this restriction into the analysis yields the “reductio ad absurdum” argument against mean‐variance models of optimal capital structure. With corporate income taxes and costless bankruptcy, the firm's value is a monotonically increasing function of debt as long as the amount of debt does not exceed the upper limit imposed by shareholder limited liability. As a result, the introduction of costly bankruptcy into the mean‐variance framework is justified.
COMPARATIVE EVALUATION OF INFORMATION UNDER TWO BUSINESS OBJECTIVES
Authors: Ahituv Niv , Wand Yair
Published: June 2007

Information economics models evaluate the value of information under the assumption that decision makers wish to maximize their expected payoff. This assumption has been criticized for not being realistic enough since decision makers usually consider more than one business objective and might be satisficers rather than optimizers.

This paper attempts to apply an information economics model to decision situations where two business performance criteria, expected payoff and risk, are considered. In order to overcome the difficulty of unknown trade‐off between the two criteria, one criterion is used as an objective to be optimized, while the other is set as a constraint. This may be interpreted as a combination of optimizing and satisficing approaches. It is shown how an information system can be evaluated in terms of both expected payoff and risk. The model suggests the trade‐off between the two criteria as an additional trait of an information system. In the last part of the paper, a numerical example illustrates how a comparative evaluation of information structures is performed when risk minimization and expected payoff maximization are concurrently used as business performance criteria.
THE RELEVANCE OF STATE‐UNIVERSITY RETIREMENT PLANS IN JOB SELECTION
Authors: Jacobs Fred A. , Watkins Frank E.
Published: June 2007

Documents provided newly hired faculty members were requested from the major statesupported university in each of the fifty states. Those documents revealed two basic types of retirement plans: (1) state‐controlled, defined‐benefit plans in which retirement benefits are a function of a formula rather than the contributions by the employee and employer, if any; and (2) third‐party, defined‐contribution, input‐based plans in which the funds are controlled by a third party and the benefits depend upon the amount of contributions and the return earned by them. The analysis focused upon the defined‐benefit formula plans and a standard was developed to facilitate analysis. The simulations undertaken reveal significant, decision‐relevant biases—especially against faculty who elect to change employers as infrequently as once every ten years when different pension plans are involved! The risks attendant to each type of plan and possible career strategies are discussed.
ASSESSING ENVIRONMENTAL SCANNING AT THE SUBUNIT LEVEL: A MULTITRAIT‐MULTIMETHOD ANALYSIS*
Authors: Farh Jiing‐Lih , Hoffman Richard C. , Hegarty W. Harvey
Published: June 2007

Environmental scanning activities of over 400 top management subunits in 108 European manufacturing firms provided the data base for this research. Four traits (constructs) of scanning using three methods (interest, frequency, and time) were examined. A confirmatory factor analysis approach to multitrait‐multimethod (MTMM) data was employed. Verification of the reliability as well as convergent and discriminant validity of the scanning scales are reported and discussed. The viability of confirmatory factor analysis in providing a precise analysis of partitioning variance according to trait, method, and error is demonstrated.
A DECISION THEORY EXAMPLE IN FOOTBALL
Authors: Janssen C. T. L. , Daniel T. E.
Published: June 2007

In the 1967 Harvard‐Cornell football game, Harvard was ahead 14–0 late in the game when Cornell scored two touchdowns. On both occasions, Cornell tried and failed on the two‐point conversion attempt and lost the game 14–12. Postgame arguments were divided on the merits of Cornell's strategy. For this frequently occurring scenario in college football, we derive a maximum expected utility decision rule for the decision of kicking versus running/passing based on the relative utility of a win, a tie, or a loss and the probabilities of success with a kick as opposed to a run/pass.
OPTIMAL DIMENSIONS OF VIRGIN STOCK IN CUTTING GLASS TO ORDER
Authors: Diegel Adolf , Bocker Hans J.
Published: June 2007

Glass cutting is a two‐dimensional version of the cutting‐stock problem. It involves two questions. One concerns the best way to cut a pane from a given plate. A less obvious question concerns selection of the plate from which the pane is cut. This leads to the question of what stock to order, before we even think of cutting it. We show that this latter question is more critical to economic cutting than the refinement of cutting procedures. We also present a method for selecting optimal stock sizes.
SOME COMMENTS ON “A SYSTEMS PERSPECTIVE ON MATERIALS REQUIREMENTS PLANNING”*
Authors: Heyl Jeff E. , Callarman Thomas E.
Published: June 2007

We believe there are some serious deficiencies in the Morecroft article on MRP problems which appeared in a recent issue of this journal. The article, at the most, shows that MRP, inappropriately imposed on an existing production system, can result in undesirable system performance. This does not represent a new or startling conclusion. Four problem areas in the article are discussed, and suggested alternative approaches are offered.
CHOICE‐CONSTRAINED CONJOINT ANALYSIS
Authors: DeSarbo Wayne S. , Green Paul E.
Published: June 2007

Choice‐constrained conjoint analysis (CCCA) is a new method for metric conjoint analysis studies. It computes part‐worth utility functions that account for “revealed preference”—those products a respondent actually selects in an independent choice situation. CCCA uses an iterative penalty function estimation procedure that successively modifies initial regressionderived part worths so that respondent choices (either actual or intended) of real brands are predicted as accurately as possible.

The paper first describes the motivation and rationale for CCCA and presents the mathematics of the algorithm. As an illustration, it applies the CCCA model and penalty function estimation procedure to a limited set of synthetic data. A second application of the technique is presented that uses data obtained by a major telecommunications firm that used conjoint analysis to examine the importance of several features of residential communication devices. The paper also discusses potential extensions of the CCCA model and the kinds of marketing applications for which it might be useful.