bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Inflation and Growth in an Open Economy
Authors: Palokangas Tapio
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the relationship between growth and inflation in an open economy where private agents can transfer resources abroad. To obtain endogenous growth, we assume that the international credit market is imperfect. We show that when the governments behave rationally the growth and inflation rates should not be correlated, and that the optimal inflation rate can be found by setting the interest rate elasticity of money holdings equal to the tax rate elasticity of the tax base.
Optimal Law Enforcement and Imperfect Information when Wealth Varies among Individuals
Authors: Garoupa Nuno
Published: March 2003

There is a belief that imperfect information about the probability of punishment and severity of punishment weakens deterrence. We assess this belief concerning two specific implications: non‐optimal deterrence and severity of punishment. We conclude that it may well be the case that the introduction of imperfect information entails a more severe punishment when wealth varies among individuals.
Staying on in Full‐Time Education: Reasons for Higher Participation Rates Among Ethnic Minority Males and Females
Authors: Leslie Derek , Drinkwatr Stephen
Published: March 2003

Individuals from ethnic minorities have a greater tendency to stay on in full‐time education beyond the compulsory age. There are, however, wide variations between groups, and the paper explores the role for human capital considerations such as earnings and increased employability in this choice. Economic considerations and socioeconomic background are found to be important, but there is evidence for a separate ethnicity effect influencing choice. The method used is to fit a joint leaving and employment equation for males and females aged 18–24 using combined micro data from the British Labour Force Survey and the Sample of Anonymized Records from the 1991 Census.
Announcements, Inflation Targeting and Central Bank Incentives
Authors: Walsh Carl E.
Published: March 2003

This paper studies the incentives a central bank faces in announcing inflation targets when the central bank has private information about the economy and the public is uncertain about the central bank’s preferences. Targeting rules in the absence of announcements reduce the inflationary bias of discretionary policy, but they distort the central bank’s response to private information about the economy. This distortion is eliminated when the central bank is allowed to announce the inflation target. Announcements also affect credibility, although the way they do so depends on the exact definition of credibility that is employed.
Some Remarks on Leland's Model of Insider Trading
Authors: Repullo Rafael
Published: March 2003

This paper shows that Leland's (1992) results on the positive effects of insider trading on investment are not robust to the introduction of noise in the insider’s information. The paper then considers two variations of his model in which the insider is risk neutral (to ensure robustness), and the investment decision is prior to the placing of the stock in the market. It is shown that if insider trading takes place in the primary market, it has no effect on the level of investment, whereas if it takes place in the secondary market, it has a negative effect on investment.
Price Competition, Non‐Price Competition and Market Structure: Theory and Evidence from the UK
Authors: Symeonidis George
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the impact of price competition on advertising/R&Dexpenditure and market structure. A general theoretical result is derived,which restricts the space of possible outcomes regarding the behaviour ofconcentration and advertising/R&D expenditure following anintensification of price competition. The theory is tested using UK data onthe evolution of competition, concentration and advertising over 1954&77. The econometric results suggest that the introduction of restrictive practiceslegislation in the UK caused a rise in concentration in previouslycartelized high‐advertising manufacturing industries and probably also afall in advertising intensity.
Altruism, Voluntary Contributions and Neutrality: The Case of Environmental Quality
Authors: Jouvet Pierre‐André , Michel Philippe , Pestieau Pierre
Published: March 2003

This paper develops an intertemporal model wherein production generates pollution, which is viewed by consumers as a public bad. There are two types of consumer: those who are altruistic and leave bequests to their children, and those who are pure life‐cyclers. Both types voluntarily contribute to the quality of environment through environmental groups. It appears that, if bequests by altruists and voluntary contributions by all are positive, redistribution is neutral—which does not mean that pollution abatement and capital accumulation are optimal. To achieve optimality, one needs a tax on inheritance and a differential subsidy on all consumer contributions.
Measuring Social Mobility as Unpredictability
Authors: Parker Simon C. , Rougier Jonathan
Published: March 2003

By associating mobility with the unpredictability of social states, new measures of social mobility may be constructed. We propose a family of three state‐by‐state and aggregate (scalar) predictability measures. The first set of measures is based on the transition matrix. The second uses a sampling approach and permits statistical testing of the hypothesis of perfect mobility, providing a new justification for the use of the χ2 statistic. The third satisfies the demanding criterion of ‘period consistency’. An empirical example demonstrates the usefulness of the new measures to complement existing ones in the literature.
The Relationship between Two Indicators of Insider Trading in British Racetrack Betting
Authors: Cain Michael , Law David , Peel David
Published: March 2003

This paper examines whether a measure of insider trading in betting markets derived from the Shin (1993) model is significantly related in samples of horse and greyhound races to an alternative, independently derived, indicator of insider activity suggested by Crafts (1985), namely plunges in the odds offered against a particular competitor on the day of a race. The analysis suggests that there is a significant relationship.
Self–Employment and Windfall Gains in Britain: Evidence from Panel Data
Authors: Taylor Mark P.
Published: March 2003

Liquidity constraints can prohibit potential entrepreneurs from starting up in business, can restrict the growth of existing entrepreneurial activities and, in the extreme, can result in small business failure. This paper uses British panel data to investigate the effects of relaxing liquidity constraints on self–employment through the unanticipated receipt of windfall gains. It discusses the different impacts the receipt of a windfall payment may have on self–employment. The results suggest that the size of the payment received has a positive and concave effect on the probability of entering self–employment and on the performance of an existing self–employment enterprise, consistent with the liquidity constraint hypothesis.
A Re–evaluation of the Relation between Wages and Unemployment in the United Kingdom
Authors: Shadman–Mehta Fatemeh
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the long–run or equilibrium relationship between wages, prices and the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom, using annual data covering the period 1860–1999. Using Johansen’s maximum likelihood method of testing for cointegration, two long–run relations are found in a small system of four variables. The first relation depicts the co–movement of the level of real wages adjusted for productivity, together with the unemployment rate and the rate of inflation. The second relation shows the co–movement between the rate of inflation and deviations of productivity from its trend growth.
Transboundary Fishery: A Differential Game Model
Authors: Benchekroun Hassan , Van Long Ngo
Published: March 2003

We consider a differential game between two players, where one player has the first–mover advantage. We compare the equilibrium of this model with the one generated by a conventional symmetric model. The existence of a first mover results in more conservationist exploitation in the aggregate. We also consider the implication of departures from the equilibrium. If the leader can commit to decrease its fishing effort over a finite interval of time, then the follower may respond by increasing, or decreasing, its catch rate, depending on the length of the commitment period.
GATT, Dispute Settlement and Cooperation: A Note
Authors: Mitchell S. K.
Published: March 2003

Kovenock and Thursby's 1992 paper in this journal argued that a country's sense of international obligation would supplement GATT's dispute settlement procedures in enforcing the Agreement. In this note I argue that international obligation plays a necessary, not just a supplementary, role in enforcing GATT or its successor, the WTO.
Employment and Gubernatorial Elections during the Gilded Age
Authors: Heckelman J. C.
Published: March 2003

The theory of political business cycles predicts economies will experience a short‐run expansion during an election period. Cross‐sectional evidence from 1870, 1880, 1890, 1900, and 1910, does not reveal statistically significant differences in gainful employment rates between states with and without a gubernatorial election in that year. Pooled regression analysis suggests gubernatorial elections are positively correlated with the state employment rate, but an annual fixed effect model designed to account for differences over time in the measurement of gainful employment mitigates this conclusion.
Democracy and the Variability of Economic Performance
Authors: Almeida Heitor , Ferreira Daniel
Published: March 2003

Sah (1991) conjectured that more centralized societies should have more volatile economic performances than less centralized ones. We show in this paper that this is true both for cross–country and within–country variability in growth rates. It is also true for some measures of policies. Finally, we show that both the best and worst performers in terms of growth rates are more likely to be autocracies. We argue that the evidence in the paper is consistent with the theoretical implications in Sah and Stiglitz (1991) and Rodrik (1999a).
Disorganization in the process of transition
Authors: Konings Jozef , Walsh Patrick Paul
Published: March 2003

Most post‐communist economies are characterized by an initial collapse in aggregate output. Blanchard and Kremer (1997) and Roland and Verdier (1997) have recently modelled supply‐side distortions – disorganization in the links of production – that can lead to a short‐term output contraction after market liberalization and a recovery thereafter. This paper is the first to illustrate and test the effects of disorganization in the transition process by using a unique dataset of 300 Ukrainian firms. Our results show that for firms that existed under central planning, disorganization constrains employment and productivity growth during the transition process to a market economy. We also show that the effects of disorganization are greater the more out‐dated the capital stock inheritance from the planning system. In contrast, disorganization plays no role in the determination of employment and productivity growth in newly established private firms.

JEL classification: P0, O0, D0.
The effect of privatization on wealth distribution in Russia
Authors: Alexeev Michael
Published: March 2003

The paper considers the Russian privatization process and examines how its deviation from the competitive sale standard was likely to affect wealth inequality. (Privatization here is defined narrowly as the transfer of existing assets from government ownership to private hands.) While empirical evaluation is all but impossible due to the dearth of reliable data, it is feasible to analyze the institutional features of Russian privatization in terms of their effect on redistribution of wealth. The paper argues that the most relevant and interesting issue is to evaluate privatization’s distributional consequences relative to the informal pre‐reform property rights. In light of this, privatization is modelled as a rent‐seeking contest with incumbency advantage of enterprise managers who initially held the greatest informal rights over assets. The rent‐seeking contest is shown to strongly magnify this pre‐reform wealth inequality reflected in the incumbency advantage.

In addition, the paper analyzes the distributional consequences for various wealth groups of the differences in the composition of their pre‐reform informal wealth, most importantly a relatively large share of housing assets in the wealth of the poor. The effect of wealth redistribution on economic growth in Russia is also discussed.
Welfare Impacts of the 1998 Financial Crisis in Russia and the Response of the Public Safety Net
Authors: Lokshin Michael , Ravallion Martin
Published: March 2003

We compare welfare indicators for a nationally‐representative sample of Russians interviewed shortly after the 1998 financial crisis with data on the same people two years earlier. Both objective and subjective measures reveal a widespread, though not universal, deterioration in welfare. Current expenditures generally contracted more than incomes. Inequality fell. There were both gainers and losers at all levels. The safety net's response fell far short of what was needed to protect living standards, but it did help prevent even greater poverty. Even without better targeting, a modest expansion of the safety net could have prevented an increase in income poverty in the aftermath of the crisis.
From Inflation to Growth
Authors: Christoffersen Peter , Doyle Peter
Published: March 2003

This paper reexamines growth in transition using panel data to 1997. It suggests that output has been strongly affected by export market growth; that inflation has been associated with weaker output only above a threshold inflation rate; that structural reform has been associated with weaker output initially, but that it stimulates higher growth thereafter; and that rapid disinflation has been associated with output losses only in the presence of pegged exchange rates.
From Predation to Accumulation?: The Second Transition Decade in Russia
Authors: Buiter Willem H.
Published: March 2003

In this paper I argue that the insecure property rights and widespread predation that have characterized Russia during these past 12 or so years have depressed capital formation in all its dimensions, private, public, physical, human and environmental. The elimination of the conditions that gave rise to insecure property rights and predation is a necessary condition for the kind of sustained economic growth the Russian government anticipates in its new economic strategy, promulgated in June 2000.
Investigating the Balassa‐Samuelson hypothesis in the transition: Do we understand what we see? A panel study
Authors: Égert Balázs
Published: March 2003

This paper studies the Balassa‐Samuelson (B‐S) effect in the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. We use time series and panel cointegration techniques and show that the B‐S effect works reasonably well in the transition economies under study during the period from 1991:Q1 to 2001:Q2. However, we find, that productivity growth does not fully translate into price increases because of the construction of the CPI indexes. We therefore argue that productivity growth will not hinder meeting the Maastricht criterion on inflation in the medium term. In addition, the observed appreciation of the CPI‐deflated real exchange rate is found to be systematically higher compared with the real appreciation the B‐S effect could justify, especially in the cases of the Czech Republic and Slovakia. This can be partly explained by the trend appreciation of the tradable price‐based real exchange rate, increases in non‐tradable prices due to price liberalization and demand‐side pressures and the evolution of the nominal exchange rate determined by the nature of the exchange rate regime and the magnitude of capital inflows.

JEL classification: E31, F31, O11, P17,
Risk Management of Correlation Products
Authors: Mahoney James M.
Published: March 2003

Trading units within the banking and dealer community that trade exotic instruments are well aware of the hazards of using traditional tools in analysing the risks resulting from positions taken in their specialised markets. The global risk management systems within these organisations have been slower to recognise the new risk profiles created by more recently traded exotic instruments. For traditional risks that are separable, the evaluation of risk at the individual trading units and the subsequent aggregation of risk across trading units captures the risks inherent in the portfolio. However, with non‐traditional, non‐separable risks, this division (by trading unit) and subsequent aggregation (by risk managers) of risks may obscure an increasing amount of risk found in the firm's trading operation.
Pricing of Futures Contracts on Coupon Bonds: Empirical Evidence from Finland
Authors: Käppi Jari
Published: March 2003

This paper investigates the pricing of the two year old Finnish bond futures market. We show that the market has mispriced the futures contracts during the test period with the futures contracts being underpriced most of the time. We also measure whether the futures market has prediction power over the bond market. Our results suggest that there is a lead‐lag relationship between the Finnish bond and the futures markets.
Takeovers: English and American
Authors: Miller* Geoffrey
Published: March 2003

Viewed against the backdrop of European company law generally, the UK and US systems of corporate governance are remarkably similar. However, there are several salient differences between the system, including the fact that the UK has a more robust and less regulated takeover market than the USA, while the USA is more permissive towards derivative litigation. This paper explains the differences as a function of politics. In the USA, where corporate law is dominated by state governments, the political forces aligned against hostile takeovers are quite potent, generating legislation and judicial decisions that have suppressed takeover activity. In the UK, with a more unitary system, the political forces play out differently, and the system accordingly generates rules more accommodating to unfriendly takeovers.
Efficiency in the Pricing of the FTSE 100 Futures Contract
Authors: Miffre Joëlle
Published: March 2003

This paper studies the pricing efficiency in the FTSE 100 futures contract by linking the predictable movements in futures returns to the time‐varying risk and risk premia associated with prespecified factors. The results indicate that the predictability of the FTSE 100 futures returns is consistent with a conditional multifactor model with time‐varying moments. The dynamics of the factor risk premia, combined with the variation in the betas, capture most of the predictable variance of returns, leaving little variation to be explained in terms of market inefficiency. Hence the predictive power of the instruments does not justify a rejection of market efficiency.
What Determines IPO Gross Spreads in Europe?
Authors: Torstila Sami
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the behaviour of underwriting gross spreads in European IPO markets using a data set of 565 IPOs by European issuers in the period 1986–99. Privatisations have lower gross spreads than other IPOs, other things remaining equal. Gross spreads on European listings by European issuers are significantly lower than on US listings by European issuers, except on the technology stock–oriented EASDAQ and Frankfurt Neuer Markt exchanges. IPOs involving a US bulge bracket underwriter (for joint US/Europe listings) or bookbuilding are characterised by relatively higher spreads.
Backtesting Derivative Portfolios with Filtered Historical Simulation (FHS)
Authors: Barone‐Adesi Giovanni , Giannopoulos Kostas , Vosper Les
Published: March 2003

Filtered historical simulation provides the general framework to our backtests of portfolios of derivative securities held by a large sample of financial institutions. We allow for stochastic volatility and exchange rates. Correlations are preserved implicitly by our simulation procedure. Options are repriced at each node. Overall results support the adequacy of our framework, but our VaR numbers are too high for swap portfolios at long horizons and too low for options and futures portfolios at short horizons.
Perspectivism, Criticism and Freedom of Spirit
Authors: Reginster Bernard
Published: March 2003

The paper examines the view that Nietzsche's perspectivism about practical judgments, understood as a form of internalism about practical reasons, implies that any legitimate criticism of judgments emanating from a foreign perspective must be in terms that are internal to this perspective. Insofar as it is thought to be motivated by certain general theoretical strictures of perspectivism, this view is incoherent. The paper argues that, on the contrary Nietzsche's recourse to a strategy of internal criticism is motivated by his own particular commitment to preserving the freedom of spirit of his interlocutors. The paper concludes with a discussion of how freedom of spirit is preserved by internal criticism, and how the nature of freedom of spirit affects the particular form such criticism will assume.
Projection and Necessity in Hume
Authors: Kail P. J. E.
Published: March 2003

This paper discusses the metaphor of projection in relation to Hume’s treatment of causal necessity. I argue that the best understanding of projection shows it to be compatible with taking Hume to be a ‘sceptical realist’ about causal necessity, albeit an agnostic one.
The European Court of Justice and the Rhetoric of Affirmative Action
Authors: Charpentier Louis
Published: March 2003

The recent Marschall decision by the European Court of Justice (ECJ) to uphold a principle giving precedence to women for promotions in the workplace seems promising for the future of affirmative action. At first glance, this decision seems to indicate that the ECJ has taken a different path, moving away from its earlier Kalanke decision which had jeopardised further development of affirmative action in the European Union. On a closer examination, both Kalanke’s sweeping ban of preferential treatment based on gender and Marschall’s new interpretation appear as discursive replies to the same dilemma: should the Court deny the normative objective of equality contained in EC law to generate meaning, thus turning equality into a mere formal principle and rendering judicial review trivial? Or should it embrace a substantive reading of the fundamental principle of equality between men and women, thus substituting the Court judgment for that of the legislature, and subverting the limits of the ECJ’s powers? The aim of this article is to analyse the ECJ’s rhetorical response to the complexities contained in affirmative action judicial review.
Shifting Conceptions of Sexual Discrimination at the Court of Justice: from P v S to Grant v SWT
Authors: Bell Mark
Published: March 2003

Decisions of the Court of Justice have challenged traditional notions of sexual discrimination. In P v S and Cornwall County Council, the Court held that discrimination against transsexuals was contrary to the 1976 Equal Treatment Directive. However, in Grant v South‐West Trains, the Court rejected arguments that Article 119 on equal pay prohibited discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation. This article contrasts the two decisions, and in particular focuses on the inconsistencies in the Court’s definition of what constitutes sexual discrimination. The article further considers the underlying factors which may have influenced the Court’s judgment, including the moral dimension and the political context of the two decisions. Finally, there is a discussion of the merits of equality litigation strategies, in particular at the Court of Justice.
On National Courts, European Law and Constitutions: Dialogue and Conflict
Authors: Reich Norbert
Published: March 2003

Books reviewed in this article:

A.‐M. Slaughter, A. Stone Sweet, J.H.H. Weiler (eds), Legal Change in Its Social Context
Governing Economic Globalisation: Global Legal Pluralism and European Law
Authors: Snyder Francis
Published: March 2003

How is globalisation governed? The following article tries to answer this question. Focusing on economic globalisation, it presents the case of the international commodity chain in toys, identifies its various segments or boxes, and then gives examples to illustrate how the chain is governed. The article argues that economic globalisation is governed by the totality of strategically determined, situationally specific, and often episodic conjunctions of a multiplicity of sites throughout the world. These sites include, for example, EU law, United States law, Chinese law, multinational corporation and trade association codes of conduct, international customs conventions, and WTO law. Each of these sites has institutional, normative, and processual characteristics. Though the sites are not isolated from each other, each has its own history, internal dynamics, and distinctive features. Taken together, they represent a new form of global legal pluralism.
The European Community and the Member States in the Dispute Settlement Understanding of the WTO: United or Divided?
Authors: Chatháin Carmel Ní
Published: March 2003

Opinion 1/94 of the European Court of Justice determined the competence of the European Community and the Member States to conclude and implement WTO Agreements. Whilst the European Community enjoys exclusive competence to implement the Multilateral Agreements on Trade in Goods, it shares joint competence with the Member States in respect of the General Agreement on Trade in Services and the Agreement on Trade‐Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights. However, the Court’s recognition of a division of competences between the Community and the Member States in WTO agreements has given rise to many fears that such a division would greatly complicate Community and Member State participation in WTO Agreements, would create many problems for them in doing so and, as a result, would greatly impede their successful participation in the WTO. Given the benefit of a number of years’ experience in the WTO, this paper focuses on the Dispute Settlement Understanding (DSU) of the WTO and addresses the extent to which the division of competences between the Community and the Member States has affected their participation in the DSU. Primarily, it aims to examine the extent to which the provisions of the DSU affect Community and Member State participation in dispute settlement within the WTO. It then analyses the duty of co‐operation imposed on the Community and on Member States by the Court of Justice in Opinion 1/94 in the implementation of the WTO Agreements and the degree to which this duty influences their pursuit of dispute settlement. Finally, the paper examines the manner in which Community and Member State dispute settlement proceedings have evolved in practice, the extent to which the division of powers has penetrated dispute settlement proceedings and the manner in which the Community, the Member States and other WTO members have addressed it. In essence, the paper attempts both to highlight some of the more obvious consequences and effects that the internal division of powers between the Community and the Member States has for their participation in the DSU and to suggest some ways in which these consequences may be manipulated for their mutual and successful settlement of disputes.
Patent Protection in Europe: Integrating Europe into the Community or the Community into Europe?
Authors: Ullrich Hanns
Published: March 2003

Patent protection in Europe basically rests on two pillars: national grants or grants from the European Patent Organisation (EPO). The EPO grants patents by a centralised procedure with uniform conditions, but once granted the patents become national and subject to the divergent national laws of EPO–Member States. The system has been very successful, so successful, indeed, that it overshadowed the Community’s many unsuccessful attempts to set up a Community patent system of its own by way of a convention between Member States. As the Commission has recently stepped in by proposing the establishment of a Community Patent system by way of regulation, a kind of ‘cooperative rivalry’ has arisen between the Community and the EPO about how to unify patent protection in Europe. This rivalry not only mirrors divergent views on the politico–economic functions of the patent system, but also is illustrative of different concepts of regional integration in a context of global competition for innovation.
Free Movement of Services and Social Security—Quo Vadis?
Authors: Fuchs Maximilian
Published: March 2003

Dental treatment (of Aline Kohll) and a pair of spectacles (for Nicolas Decker) recently drew public attention throughout the whole of Europe. It is certainly true that the reactions following the Court of Justice’s judgements in both cases were not only to be felt in the profession but in the general public most especially in political circles. Some authors even went as far as to place these judgements on a par with those in the Costa/ENEL and Cassis de Dijon cases. In the meantime these decisions have persistently been upheld by two further judgements (Vanbraekel and Smits/Peerbooms). The essence of the judgements lies in the observation that the Member States must respect an insured person’s right to freedom of services despite being entitled to organise their own social security services. The following article is a critical analysis of this approach. The author pleads for a solution to the problems to be found within the ambit of the rules and principles of coordination whose further development he calls for.
Evolving Environmental Norms in the European Union
Authors: Usui Yoichiro
Published: March 2003

The EU has demonstrated interesting institutional practices with regard to the evolution of environmental norms. The paper illuminates a role of law in the institutional practices in terms of the discursive power of law, drawing on the fact that law catalyses discourses and individual laws in and of themselves are also discourses. In order to elucidate this discursive viewpoint, the paper offers a conceptual framework, referring to the concepts of frame and regime. Building on this conceptual framework, the paper understands the development of EU environmental law as an example of normative evolution in a re´gime and describes the evolutionary process from pre– to post–Single European Act.
An Analysis of Knowledge Acquisition Roles and Participants
Authors: Wagner William P. , Holsapple Clyde W.
Published: March 2003

Much recent research effort in the field of knowledge acquisition (KA) has focussed on extending knowledge acquisition techniques and processes to include a wider array of participants and knowledge sources in a variety of knowledge acquisition scenarios. As the domain of expert systems applications and research has expanded, techniques have been developed to acquire and incorporate knowledge from groups of experts and from various sources such as text, video, and audio tapes. However, the dominant participant‐role model remains that of the knowledge engineer eliciting knowledge from one or more human experts. This conceptual gap has contributed to the major divisions in the KA field between researchers interested in manual KA and those developing tools for automated KA. This article considers the wide variety of possible KA scenarios and presents a meta‐view of KA participants and the roles they may assume.We suggest that it is more appropriate to think of knowledge acquisition participants as playing one or more roles. These include knowledge sources, agents and targets for KA processes. We also present a participant model drawn from research in decision support systems that more accurately characterizes the diversity of the entities participating in the KA process. This view is more inclusive as it allows us to consider both human‐human and human‐computer KA interactions as well as the whole variety of knowledge sources and targets. A careful consideration of the meta‐view and its associated role‐participant mappings also yields the new ideas of the elemental and composite role and the multi‐role entity. These new constructs are then used to identify areas where research is currently needed and to generate specific research issues. Taken altogether, this view allows a more flexible consideration of the many possible combinations that can and frequently do occur in actual KA situations.
Arguments for Qualitative Risk Assessment: The StAR Risk Adviser
Authors: Hardman David K. , Ayton Peter
Published: March 2003

Calculating risk is relatively straightforward when there is reliable statistical evidence on which to base a judgment. However, novel technologies are often characterised by a lack of such historical data, which creates a problem for risk assessment. In fact, numerical risk assessments can be positively misleading in such situations. We describe a decision support system – StAR – that gives quantitative assessments where appropriate, but which is also able to provide qualitative risk assessments based on arguments for and against the presence of risk. The user is presented with a summary statement of risk, together with the arguments that underlie this assessment. Furthermore, the user is able to search beyond these top‐level arguments in order to discover more about the available evidence. Here we suggest that this approach is well‐suited to the way in which people naturally make decisions, and we show how the StAR approach has been implemented in the domain of toxicological risk assessment.
A Fuzzy Expert System for Complex Closed‐loop Control: A Non‐Mathematical Approach
Authors: Lau Henry , Wong T.N.
Published: March 2003

A fuzzy expert system uses fuzzy logic control (Zadeh, 1965) which is based on a ‘superset’ of Boolean logic that has been extended to handle the concept of ‘partial truth’ and it replaces the role of a mathematical model with another that is built from a number of rules with fuzzy variables such as output temperature and fuzzy terms such as ‘hot’, ‘fairly cold’, ‘probably correct’. In control areas, an expert system using fuzzy logic principles has advantages over conventional Proportional‐Integral‐Derivative (PID) closed‐loop control such as the ability to offer a method for representing and implementing the expert’s knowledge, the ability to implement simple but robust solutions as well as comparatively less development and maintenance time of the involved control system. A fuzzy expert system may further outperform conventional PID control system when dealing with ‘multiple‐input multiple‐output’ control situations where more complex control algorithms for conventional PID system are required. This paper presents a methodology for the implementation of such a fuzzy expert system with a step‐by‐step, non‐mathematical approach, which is able to handle complex closed‐loop control situations. A practical example is employed to illustrate the ‘road‐map’ of the methodology with realistic data based on the implementation of this system in a local company.
A hierarchical expert system for integrated scheduling of ship berthing, discharging and material transport
Authors: Suh Min Soo , Lee Yung Jae
Published: March 2003

Abstract: Berthing ships at a port and unloading the stowed materials require a series of scheduling problems: ship berthing, discharging, and material transport. To deal effectively with the scheduling complexity due to mutual interdependence among those problems, this paper proposes a two‐level hierarchical architecture for the integrated scheduling of all the activities arising in port. The hierarchical architecture assigns ships to multiple lower level dispatchers, each of which makes its own discharging and material transport schedule independently while satisfying the requirements imposed by the higher level coordinator. If any problem occurs within a dispatcher, the higher level coordinator attempts to resolve the trouble through the coordination of other dispatchers. Based on the hierarchical architecture, a prototype scheduling expert system is developed using G2 for the port scheduling problem at a steelworks. Through the object‐ oriented interaction of frames, the system is shown to effectively construct integrated schedules from the berth scheduling to the material transport scheduling.
An online expert system for fault diagnosis in hydraulic systems
Authors: Angeli Chr
Published: March 2003

Fault diagnosis has become increasingly important for industrial automation and many approaches have been investigated for the online diagnostic task. This work demonstrates a new online expert system for dynamic industrial automated processes. The emphasis of this diagnostic system lies in the functions provided for fault detection, prediction, compensation and diagnosis. The system uses experiential knowledge cooperatively with scientific knowledge in a new interactive formation. It is developed in two parts using the DASYLab software for the numerical computations and the KPWin development tool for the symbolic representations. The system was developed in collaboration with the company Automation Systems S.A., which specializes in hydraulic systems, and is used for fault detection in production machines.
Connectionist variable binding
Authors: Browne Antony , Sun Ron
Published: March 2003

Variable binding has long been a challenge to connectionists. Attempts to perform variable binding using localist and distributed connectionist representations are discussed, and problems inherent in each type of representation are outlined.
Integrating symbolic and numerical features for fault prediction and diagnosis by an expert system
Authors: Angeli Chr
Published: March 2003

This paper addresses the topic of a predictive task after integration of symbolic and numerical features by a hybrid diagnostic expert system. The online interaction of information and knowledge from various sources is achieved after successful combination of different development environments, tools and programs. The system infers using cooperatively dynamic modelling information, online sensor information, and stored knowledge in the knowledge base.
The Usefulness of Financial Reporting in Spanish Local Governments
Authors: Alijarde M. Isabel Brusca
Published: March 2003

Since 1992, accounting for Spanish local governments has been undergoing substantial change. The application of a new regulation has introduced the double entry system, an approximation to the accounting terminology used in the private sector and the presentation of financial statements beyond the purely budgetary reporting. In this context, the paper attempts to examine the extent to which the new regulation has achieved the objectives of financial reporting, who the users of the information could be, what the usefulness of the financial statements is and what they are used for in local governments. The results prove that the financial reporting of local governments can be useful for potential users like audit institutions, financial institutions or creditors. However, there is a long way to go before we can say that the information is used to the maximum. This implies that further progress is necessary in the use of financial information in local governments, and fundamentally it is necessary to introduce techniques of financial analysis traditionally used in business entities.
Management and Accounting Developments in Executive Agencies
Authors: Pendlebury Maurice , Karbhari Yusuf
Published: March 2003

The executive agency programme has moved ahead rapidly since its introduction in 1988 and by 1996 over 70% of all civil servants were working under executive agency conditions. This has resulted in a major change in the structure of the civil service and in the management of the activities of central government. The question that then emerges concerns the benefits, if any, that these changes have brought about. This paper reports the results of a survey of a sample of senior managers in executive agencies. The survey attempted to ascertain the extent to which agencification was felt to have led to increases in autonomy and freedom to manage and also to obtain the views of managers on a range of issues including changes in operational effectiveness and quality of service delivery. These, after all, are some of the key measures of the success or otherwise of the agencification programme. The survey also examined changes in specific management accounting practices and a broad overview of the findings is provided in the paper. In general, it seems that the senior managers of executive agencies do feel that agencification has achieved many of the benefits hoped for and that is has brought about changes and improvements in management and management accounting practices.
Altruisim and the Economics of Non‐Profit Organisations
Authors: Gassler Robert Scott
Published: March 2003

Economists cannot completely explain the existence of nonprofit organisations without assuming that some individuals are altruistic and have a Kantian ethic. Once that is done, the economic model becomes more realistic, and some interesting implications for economics and management can be derived.
Piano, with Harmony: Analysing the Imola Academy from a Management Study Perspective
Authors: Zan Luca
Published: March 2003

The extension of an economic and managerial discourse to non‐business organisations is becoming increasingly common in the modern‐day world. This is also true of arts organisations (museums, opera houses, etc.) where considerable conflicts and misunderstandings can be found between the different cultural matrices of art professionals and management specialists. The Imola Piano Academy is a happy exception in this respect, and therefore warrants the analysis set out in this paper which is based on a strategic change perspective. The evolution of this ‘excellent’ organisation is reconstructed, its performance is analysed and, against the background of the modest level of resources that this growth has required, the reasons underpinning its success are investigated.
Nonprofit Lobbying: Museums and Collections Capitalization
Authors: Christensen Anne L. , Mohr Rosanne M.
Published: March 2003

This research examines the museum characteristics associated with lobbying on the 1990 FASB Exposure Draft (FASB, 1990) that would have required US museums to capitalize their collections. A sample of 103 museums that lobbied on the Exposure Draft is compared to a matched sample of museums that did not choose to lobby. The results reveal that museums which lobbied are larger, older, and members of or accredited by the American Association of Museums. Also, proportionately more private museums and art museums than exist in the overall US museum population chose to lobby on the proposed requirement.
Capital Charging as a VFM Tool in Public Services
Authors: Heald David , Dowdall Alison
Published: March 2003

The essence of capital charging is very simple: namely, that the costs of capital facilities should be rendered explicit. Such transparency is intended to introduce new discipline to decisions about the acquisition, use and disposal of publicly financed assets. Implementation of capital charging in New Zealand and the United Kingdom in the 1990s has focused attention on practical issues, notably the valuation basis and the relationship of funding and capital charging systems. Capital charging will be extended to the UK central government sector in 2001–02, the year in which Resource (i.e. accruals) Budgeting becomes operational. This article relates experience to date to the specific circumstances of asset‐intensive areas of central government and of public services beyond the central government boundary. Capital charging should be seen as a VFM tool, the use of which will be conditioned both by the size and nature of asset holdings and by the context established by other New Public Management reforms, such as purchaser/provider separation.
Accountable Management Reforms: Why the Norwegian Hospital Reform Experiment Got Lost in Implementation
Authors: Pettersen Inger Johanne
Published: March 2003

There is an international tendency to replace governmental funding based on fixed grants by different reforms implying accountable management methods. In this article we focus on the implementation problems of New Public Management reforms in the Norwegian hospital sector. These reforms are built on a belief that more accountable methods will improve efficiency and better resource allocation. The term New Public Management includes different cost‐improvement programmes like Prospective Payment Systems, which were introduced as a new basis of funding in four Norwegian hospitals during a three year experimental period. The studies presented here support the findings from similar reforms in other countries, stating that there are very few, if any, documented efficiency gains by these reforms. The explanation may be that the reforms have disregarded the importance of internal organisational processes, like high quality management, communication and participation as parts of the implementation phases.
Converging New Public Management Reforms and Diverging Accounting Practices in Flemish Local Governments
Authors: Christiaens Johan
Published: March 2003

This paper aims at presenting a comparative study of the diverging development of accounting reforms in Flemish local governments in terms of accounting from a technical point of view. On the one hand, the objectives and the framework of current governmental accounting reforms aiming at improving New Public Management are currently converging. On the other hand, a conceptual examination reveals that the prescribed accounting practices are widely diverging and apparently this is also the case for the practical implementation of the reformed accounting systems. By way of conclusion, a number of possible reasons for this unsuccessful proliferation are presented.
Nominal Interest Rates and Loan Volume with Heterogeneous Beliefs
Authors: Roll Richard
Published: March 2003

The large volume of loan transactions suggests widely divergent beliefs among borrowers and lenders, but most modern term structure theories make no prediction about volume because they assume homogeneous agents. Within these rational expectations, representative agent theories, loans are not only in zero net supply; they are also in zero gross supply. Here, the shape of the average term structure, the bias in forward interest rates, and the volume of transactions are discussed in a heuristic setting with heterogeneity and incomplete rationality. A reconciliation of heterogeneity with continuous–time term structure theory is attempted, but the results are not encouraging. Empirical data are consistent with the importance of heterogeneous beliefs.