bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Fifty Years of Ethnic Conflict and Cohesion: 1945-94
Authors: Bonneuil Noël , Auriat Nadia
Published: March 2007

The diversity of conflict sequences observed among 163 ethnic groups ranging from 1945 to 1994 is portrayed in correspondence with political and socio-economic factors. This diversity comes first from the strong association between mobilization, slight discrimination, migration distress, religion and repression. On a finer detail, discrimination appears to be associated with resistance if it is related to land and power, with war if it concerns social mobility, or with insurgency if it has to do with social customs. Migration from rural to urban and abroad is accompanied by high mobilization and rioting or war when social mobility is at stake. Declining state power and democratization can open the door to violent action. Finally, there is also international diffusion of protest. Locating minority groups in this landscape of correspondence helps to compare and characterize the various particular histories. These range from Lebanon's period of war, or the years of insurgency in Iran or Somalia, to the mixture of verbal opposition and terrorism in Western democracies. Crystallizing protest in India or China is differentiated against the deterioriation of group coherence in the Middle East; sporadic bursts of violence in Africa are contrasted against insurgency and rioting in East and Southeast Asia. The results point to the need for conflict prevention policies to pay more attention to the promotion of equitable social mobility.
Clash of Civilizations, or Realism and Liberalism Déjà Vu? Some Evidence
Authors: Russett Bruce M. , Oneal John R. , Cox Michaelene
Published: March 2007

We assess the degree to which propositions from Samuel Huntington's The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order can account for the incidence of militarized interstate disputes between countries during the period 1950-92. We find that such traditional realist influences as contiguity, alliances, and relative power, and liberal influences of joint democracy and interdependence, provide a much better account of interstate conflict. Pairs of states split across civilizational boundaries are no more likely to become engaged in disputes than are other states ceteris paribus. Even disputes between the West and the rest of the world, or with Islam, were no more common than those between or within most other groups. Among Huntington's eight civilizations, interstate conflict was significantly less likely only within the West; dyads in other civilizations were as likely to fight as were states split across civilizations, when realist and liberal influences are held constant. The dominance of a civilization by a core state, democratic or not, does little to inhibit violence within the civilization. Contrary to the thesis that the clash of civilizations will replace Cold War rivalries as the greatest source of conflict, militarized interstate disputes across civilizational boundaries became less common, not more so, as the Cold War waned. Nor do civilizations appear to have an important indirect influence on interstate conflict through the realist or liberal variables. They help to predict alliance patterns but make little contribution to explaining political institutions or commercial interactions. We can be grateful that Huntington challenged us to consider the role that civilizations might play in international relations, but there is little evidence that they define the fault lines along which international conflict is apt to occur.
Non-Nationalist Voting in Bosnian Municipal Elections: Implications for Democracy and Peacebuilding
Authors: Pugh Michael , Cobble Margaret
Published: March 2007

In both the general theory of peacebuilding and the specific implementation of peace agreements, the establishment of democratic political processes and institutions is accorded a high priority by external actors in their efforts to stabilize war-torn societies. An emphasis on free elections has been especially insistent in the peacebuilding processes developed for Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was a keystone of the 1995 Dayton Agreement. This article focuses on the 1997 municipal elections because they were widely regarded as an important test of peacebuilding assumptions and because they illuminate local differentiation in non-nationalist voting. Our analysis indicates that a higher degree of optimism about the strength of non-nationalist voting may be justified than commentators have detected, especially if it allows for an ideological interpretation of the policies of former communists in Republika Srpska. Non-nationalist voting has varied in relation to the presence of ethnic Bosniacs, the population density and the mix of ethnic types. Generally, however, the municipal elections indicate that casting votes has not been a peacebuilding panacea in terms of the international organizations' strategic goal of building a unitary, self-governing, multi-ethnic state. Instead, the elections have legitimized ethnically purged constituencies and led to a flawed protectorate in which the Office of the UN Secretary-General's High Representative (OHR) and the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe (OSCE) have become increasingly inveigled into attempting to manipulate local politics.
Capability Theory and the Future of NATO's Decisionmaking Rules
Authors: Vincent Jack E. , Straus Ira L. , Biondi Richard R.
Published: March 2007

After years of relative stability in terms of both mission and membership, NATO is undergoing rapid change in both areas, primarily because of the end of the Cold War. Currently, the most important membership issue involves the inclusion of former Cold War `enemy' states from Central and Eastern Europe. In addition, NATO has, in effect, become a peacekeeping arm of the United Nations in Bosnia, a mission that was certainly not anticipated within the original NATO charter, as well as a peacemaker in Kosovo. These critical changes may have profound consequences for NATO's future. In this article we explore the attitudes towards NATO of a cross-national sample of international relations scholars and practitioners drawn from NATO nations. Taking the same approach used in Vincent's studies of UN delegate attitudes, we apply `capability theory' to the observed variation in attitudes towards NATO's decisionmaking structure. That is, we expect that the critical explanation of the division of attitudes towards NATO's method of decisionmaking will relate to the `capability' of the nation to which the respondent belongs. This is predicted since nations, under the theory, attempt to augment their capabilities through their membership in international organizations. It follows they will tend to value the organization to the extent of the augmentation. Because the decisionmaking rules of NATO, which are currently based on consensus, could prevent NATO from acting if a single `new' member disagreed with a proposed NATO course of action, we feel that capability theory may be applicable, since this would affect the capabilities of the other members. In general, we find significant support for this `capability' interpretation of attitudinal differences relating to possible alteration of NATO's decisionmaking rules.
Remarks on the Ancient Evidence for Democratic Peace
Authors: Weart Spencer R.
Published: March 2007

Responding to Eric Robinson, it is argued that evidence from ancient Greece is inadequate to provide reliable counter-examples to the democratic peace proposition, provided that the proposition is correctly defined. For the best-documented case, the Athenian invasion of Syracuse, the preponderance of evidence does make Syracuse a well-established democracy like Athens. But there is contradictory evidence not addressed by Robinson. More important, it is arguable that the decisionmaking body in Athens (the majority of the assembly) did not perceive Syracuse as behaving like a fellow democracy. That is what matters, according to an explanation of the democratic peace based not on institutional or normative causes but on the decisionmakers' perception of a shared democratic political culture. In more modern cases where such ambiguities can be checked against primary evidence, the proposition that this shared perception prevents war holds almost without exception. Other ancient cases cited by Robinson, including all those tabulated by Bruce Russett and William Antholis, involve either (1) regimes even less likely to have perceived each other as democracies, or (2) conflicts that apparently fell below the level of 200 combat deaths, which is a threshold for violence between democracies. Finally, Robinson fails to address the theoretically crucial finding that peace has also held with high consistency between oligarchic republics, from ancient times to the present.
Armed Conflict 1946-2001: A New Dataset
Authors: GLEDITSCH NILS PETTER , WALLENSTEEN PETER , ERIKSSON MIKAEL , SOLLENBERG MARGARETA , STRAND HÅVARD
Published: March 2007

In the period 1946-2001, there were 225 armed conflicts and 34 of them were active in all of or part of 2001. Armed conflict remains a serious problem in the post-Cold War period. For three decades, the Correlates of War project has served as the main supplier of reliable data used in longitudinal studies of external and internal armed conflict. The COW datasets on war use the relatively high threshold of 1,000 battle-deaths. The Uppsala dataset on armed conflict has a lower threshold, 25 annual battle-deaths, but has so far been available for only the post-Cold War period. This dataset has now been backdated to the end of World War II. This article presents a report on armed conflict based on this backdate as well as another annual update. It presents the procedures for the backdating, as well as trends over time and breakdowns for the type of conflict. It assesses the criteria for measuring armed conflict and discusses some directions for future data collection in this area.
The Civilian in the Crossfire
Authors: Doswald-Beck Louise
Published: March 2007

Unlike the publicized suffering of the civilian population, the law regulating armed conflict is not well known. The laws of war were first formulated within professional armies in order to regulate discipline, and thus although they also have a humanitarian purpose, they are a useful and practical body of law for the military The fundamental principle underlying the rules on hostilities is the distinction between military objectives and civilians. The latter are not to be purposely attacked, but damage to civilians which is inevitable when aiming at military objectives and which is not out of propotion to the value of the objective is tolerated. The advantage to the military in observing this distinction is economy of force (there is no tactical advantage in hitting civilians and it wastes ammunition and manpower) and for States it means less damage to rectify after the war. This traditional principle of distinction suffered greatly during the second world war but has been reaffirmed since by States and has now been codified in Protocol I of 1977 The benefits of observing the distinction between civilians and military objectives are not necessarily clear to short-sighted individuals during the heat of battle. The need, therefore, is to make the law of war a part of military training, i.e. instruction to commanders and incorporation in daily military exercises so as to make its application automatic. The basics of the law should also be known to the civilian population, who have a vested interest in its respect and from whom the military are drawn, especially if conscripted.
The Underlying Structure of Ethical Beliefs toward War
Authors: Tamashiro Howard , Brunk Gregory G. , Secrest Donald
Published: March 2007

Behavioralists have tended to neglect the study of ethics as unimportant to an understanding of political behavior and its various manifestations, such as international conflict. In our analysis we examine the attitudes of a sample of retired American military officers toward war and war waging issues in order to infer the more fundamental nature of the ethical constraints that are embedded within the decision making of these individuals. Three fundamental dimensions of ethical thinking are apparent. These concern constraints on the use of force as a policy tool, the legitimacy of force and force planning, and the sensitivity of individuals to the risks present in the international system. In order to justify our interpretations, we present a detailed question by question analysis of the factor weights of each survey item. Finally, we speculate on the types of ethical tensions that will arise within the military when these three fundamental factors of ethical evaluation come into conflict.
Strategic Defense: Catastrophic Loss of Control
Authors: Bella David A.
Published: March 2007

What if space-based strategic defense, as proposed by the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), eventually works reasonably well and is deployed on both sides? This paper examines the properties of the global defensive system that could result from the interactions between the two opposing defensive systems. It is reasoned that this global defensive system could have the capacity to unintentionally and rapidly amplify relatively minor events to global catastrophe. At high states of alert, the global technological system would be difficult or impossible to control and this system could fail in a way that unintentionally initiates a catastrophic nuclear exchange. These dangers have not been adequately examined. This paper presents a framework for analyzing the catastrophic loss of control in such gllobal technological systems.
From the Truman Doctrine to the Second Superpower Detente: The Rise and Fall of the Cold War
Authors: Cox Michael
Published: March 2007

This article provides an overview of the Cold War from its origins in 1947 to the present day. It begins with a discussion of the balance of power after the war and asks why - if the USSR was as weak as many assumed - did a very powerful United States regard it as a threat to the West's vital interests. This discussion is then followed by an examination of the Cold War as a `system' which concludes that for both superpowers bipolarity was an acceptable foundation upon which to base their security in the postwar period. The article then examines the crisis of the Cold War in the late 1960s and how Kissinger tried and failed to resolve the problem of world order through the strategy of superpower detente. This brings the discussion to the second Cold War. Here the author explores both the coherence of the Reagan strategy and the degree to which Reagan succeeded where Kissinger failed in establishing a more stable international system. The analysis then concludes with an examination of the origins and implications of the second superpower detente and poses and seeks to answer the difficult question: will the end of the Cold War also mean the end of the `Long Peace'?
ICBM Trajectories: Some Issues for the Superpowers' Neighbors
Authors: Egea Alejandro Nadal
Published: March 2007

This essay examines the possible factors that may cause nuclear warheads to deviate from their preassigned targets and inadvertently to have direct impacts on non-belligerent countries during a nuclear exchange. Although nuclear warheads might not detonate if ICBMs were to deviate from their trajectories, plutonium contamination could cover considerable areas. The first section focuses on the technical aspects of ICBM technology that may act as target miss factors. The conclusions are that ICBM accuracy may have been overestimated and that target miss factors have not received adequate attention. The second section examines some of the implications for the neighbors of the two superpowers in the event of a nuclear exchange. The cases of countries in different geographical positions but lying within the corridors embracing ICBM trajectories are considered. The third section centers on probable trends in mobile ICBM basing schemes as well as in multiple maneuverable re-entry technology. The concluding remarks highlight some of the legal and political angles behind the question of inadvertent direct impacts of nuclear warheads.
Explaining Relative Peace: Major Power Order, 1816-1976
Authors: SCHAHCZENSKI JEFFERY J.
Published: March 2007

Defining peace as the absence of war has been of limited usefulness in understanding the systemic and dyadic conditions that lead to changes in the explicit use of interstate force in the international system. Building on the recent work of Wallensteen (1984) and Midlarsky (1988), this study offers an empirical analysis which explores whether the collective policies of state decision-makers matter in the maintenance of relative international peace over the period 1816 to 1976. The results of the analysis suggest that past efforts of major powers to establish limited international orders have mattered in the promotion of international peace. Further research into the dynamics of international dispute processes is needed if we are to advance our understanding of the conditions of peace and the causes of war.
A Causal Analysis of the Defense Expenditures of the USA and the USSR
Authors: CORREA HECTOR , KIM JI-WON
Published: March 2007

Statistical studies of the determinants of defense expenditures have been criticized on two counts: (a) most of them do not test the hypotheses of causality that they include, but simply use them as a point of departure, and (b) those that do test causality are restricted to conceptual models with very few explanatory variables. The objective of this paper is to study the defense expenditures of the USA and the USSR, explicitly avoiding these two limitations. This is done using elementary statistical methods in somewhat unorthodox ways. The conclusions of the analyses are carefully compared with those obtained by other authors and the differences encountered are explained as far as possible. The analyses and comparisons show that the defense expenditures of the USA are determined by their own inertia and by political factors within the country, while those of the USSR are determined by their own inertia and the conditions of relations with the USA. The interest of these results is not in their novelty, but in the fact that they are obtained with procedures designed to provide a more solid foundation.
Democracy and War: Choice, Learning and Security Communities
Authors: STARR HARVEY
Published: March 2007

The growing literature on the relationship between democracy and war has focused on two questions-Whether democracies are more pacific than other types of government, and why democracies do not seem to go to war against each other. In the spirit of Lakatosian cumulativeness - looking for explanations with excess empirical content - this commentary supports one explanation of the `why democracies do not fight democracies' question. The model supported is an expected utility formulation by Bueno de Mesquita & Lalman based on the logical relationships between states which are `doves' and `non-doves'. The same explanation for democracy-to-democracy peace provided by the Bueno de Mesquita-Lalman analytics, based on the ability to `separate' states into doves and non-doves, can be used to explain the linkages between integration and the Deutschian concept of `security community'.
A Fuzzy Set Model of NATO Decision-Making: The Case of Short-Range Nuclear Forces in Europe
Authors: Sanjian Gregory S.
Published: March 2007

This article develops a fuzzy set model of group decision-making and then applies the model to the debate that took place between the NATO states in 1989 over whether to modernize the alliance's short-range nuclear missiles or negotiate a force reduction agreement with the WTO. The NATO partners decided what to do at their May 1989 Brussels summit. From among four discernible courses of action - x1 = modernize, x2 = negotiate, x3 = modernize and negotiate, and x4 = neither modernize nor negotiate - the alliance agreed to negotiate ( x2) with the WTO. It is the organization's path to this decision that is conceptualized as being fuzzy. The sixteen NATO allies' individual preference orderings of the four alternatives are first determined via a content analysis of reports on their discussions. These preference orderings are then used to define a fuzzy group preference relation describing the extent to which each alternative is preferred to the others by the entire alliance. Derived from the fuzzy group relation is then NATO's optimal preference ordering (which, at Brussels, was ( x2, x4, x3, x1)) as well as the organization's fuzzy level of agreement for that ordering (a very weak .56). Subsequent analysis also reveals that the group's optimal preference ordering was the reverse of the United State's preference ordering at the outset of the summit and identical to the preference ordering of Germany. The implications of this outcome for future NATO decisions are discussed.
The Value of Economic Incentives in International Politics
Authors: Crumm Eileen M.
Published: March 2007

This essay presents a preliminary model of the factors that influence the value of positive and negative economic incentives in international politics. The first part of the article is a review of prior research findings on incentive value. It integrates several lines of research and organizes the findings into five categories that form the frame of a model of incentive value; target market characteristics, target political structure, characteristics of goods, world market conditions and sender state political structure. Since the studies used to create this frame focus primarily on negative incentives, the second part of the study tries to balance this bias with insights from cases of positive incentives. This analysis suggests some original points; it finds that capital goods are less useful as repeated rewards and that relational norms may affect the value of an incentive. The inductive portion of the analysis also highlights a major difference between negative and positive incentives. For while market forces work against limiting access to substitutes in negative incentives and thus decrease their value, limited alternatives were found to contribute to the value of positive incentives.
Modelling Greek-Turkish Rivalry: An Empirical Investigation of Defence Spending Dynamics
Authors: Georgiou George M. , Kapopoulos Panayotis T. , Lazaretou Sophia
Published: March 2007

Three models are used to test the widely held view that there is military rivalry between Greece and Turkey. The modelling is based on the work of McGuire (1977), Desai & Blake (1981) and a vector autoregression specification. Particular attention is paid to appropriate diagnostic tests, the long-run values and Granger causality. Empirical findings provide little corroboration of the view that there is an arms race between Greece and Turkey. Such results should not be entirely surprising. Rivalry can take many other forms, such as periodic exchanges of bellicose rhetoric; economic, political and diplomatic manoeuvering; lobbying within existing alliances; political, historical and cultural propaganda. Given that the statistical evidence provides little support for the view that there is an arms race between Greece and Turkey, there are possibly other explanations for their military expenditures. Therefore, on the empirical side, the most important issue for future research of the determinants of military expenditures in both countries would be the consideration of models that incorporate the impact of various strategic, political and economic factors which may be important determinants of defence spending.
Is Collective Violence Correlated with Social Pluralism?
Authors: Rummel Rudolph J.
Published: March 2007

In order to determine the contribution of social pluralism (ethnic, religious, and racial differences) to violence, diverse multivariate cross-national analyses were done. These involved 109 variables on conflict and violence; pluralism; and social political, economic, demographic, and cultural differences for all states, 1932 to 1982. The results show that pluralism is a multidimensional empirical concept; that regardless of which dimension is focused upon, it has a lesser relationship to violence than do other national characteristics, such as political freedom. And what relationship is found between pluralism and violence, holding other variables constant, is largely accounted for by the number of ethnic and religious groups in a state. Drawing on this and other studies, the conclusion is that where political power is centralized around a trans-plural group, such as a military junta or monarch, or trans-plural ideology, such as communism or fascism, then violence is highly likely, regardless of what plural units may or may not exist. And where power is centralized, nondemocratic, and highly dependent upon one's social group membership, such as ethnicity or religion, then collective violence is also highly likely.
`Odysseus and the Lilliputians': Germany, the European Union, and the Smaller European States
Authors: Sverdrup Bjørn Otto
Published: March 2007

Does Germany dominate Europe and the smaller European states? Why does it not? Questions like these have stimulated Peter J. Katzenstein to draw up a balance sheet of united Germany's relations with its European neighbours. By emphasizing the concept of `semi-sovereignty' at the domestic level and `associated sovereignty' at the international one, Katzenstein's book draws attention to institutional aspects which affect German policy. Soft and indirect power, rather than direct influence, have been a predominant feature in Germany's policies towards Europe. The present review essay presents the major findings of this important book and makes three critical comments (all from an institutional perspective). It suggests, first, that the concept of semi-sovereignty is biased towards the constraining effects of institutions rather than towards their constitutive importance; second, that the concept of institutional embeddedness underestimates the importance of institutionalization; and finally, that the book leaves the issue of small-state behaviour underexplored. In conclusion, this review essay looks ahead and hints at the increasing divide between the smaller and the larger states in the EU. Germany's dilemma in this respect is to make multilateralism effective, yet to avoid the impression that its reform proposals are an effort to institutionalize German hegemony.
One-Sided Crises in The International System
Authors: Hewitt J. Joseph , Wilkenfeld Jonathan
Published: March 2007

This article examines some unique features of a subset of crises in the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) dataset, involving cases in which nations perceived themselves to be in foreign policy crises when their primary adversaries did not. These `one-sided crises' are expected to differ from normal or `two-sided crises' in a number of ways, especially in terms of the likelihood of crisis violence. The absence of a shared perception about the likelihood of future hostilities at the onset of the crisis is posited as the basis for the expectation of differences between the two types of crisis. The study presents a number of hypotheses about these differences and provides a brief empirical analysis. A multivariate analysis indicates that one-sided crises are less likely to escalate to violence even when the effects of other known predictors of crisis violence are introduced. The study provides a cautionary note to scholars who use the ICB data about the potential impact of including one-sided crises in analyses of crisis violence. The conclusion provides a brief comment about the theoretical significance of the findings.
Assessing Technologies of Political Control
Authors: Rappert Brian
Published: March 2007

In recent years, governments around the world have spent significant amounts of money researching, developing and deploying new technology for their security forces. This article seeks to further the understanding of these so-called `technologies of political control', by exploring three questions: How can we understand the consequences of this technology? What kind of knowledge is important in assessing them? What strategies could form a basis for controlling them? It is maintained that answers to these questions depend on the underlying assumptions made about the relation between technology and wider societal relations. Developing a more adequate understanding of technologies of political control requires a further examining of these assumptions in light of the `politics' of technology.
The Validity of Juvenile Arrestees' Drug Use Reporting: A Gender Comparison
Authors: KIM JULIA YUN SOO , FENDRICH MICHAEL , WISLAR JOSEPH S.
Published: March 2007

Few studies investigating the validity of drug use reporting among arrestees have included an adequate sample of females to study gender differences. This exploratory study examined gender differences in the validity of drug use reporting among juvenile arrestees, using a gender-matched sample (n = 6,377) drawn from the Drug Use Forecasting Program,1 1992-1996. Self-reported marijuana and crack and/or cocaine use was compared to urinalysis results to test gender differences in the accuracy of disclosure. Among urine positives, girls were more willing than boys to disclose past month and lifetime marijuana use. Gender was not a significant main effect for cocaine use reporting but interacted with race/ethnicity and family structure in predicting valid disclosure. Hispanic girls were significantly more likely than Hispanic boys to underreport recent cocaine use. Among arrestees from homes with one or no parents, girls were significantly more likely than boys to disclose recent cocaine use.
An Exploratory Test of Braithwaite's Reintegrative Shaming Theory
Authors: HAY CARTER
Published: March 2007

The past two decades have seen unprecedented growth in both the number and variety of theories of crime causation. Since 1985, at least 25 new theories of crime causation have emerged. If these theories are to illuminate rather than obscure our understanding of the causes of crime, empirical tests are needed. This article addresses that need by reporting a test of one prominent new theory of crime: Braithwaite's reintegrative shaming theory. Adolescents are taken as the units of analysis, and the focus is on the relationship between their parents' use of reintegration and shaming and adolescent reports of projected predatory delinquency. Three principal questions are addressed: (1) What variables predict parents' use of reintegration and shaming? (2) Do reintegration and shaming statistically interact to affect delinquency, or are their effects additive? (3) Are any observed effects of reintegration and shaming on delinquency merely a result of spuriousness? Findings reveal partial support for the theory, including a durable negative effect of shaming on predatory delinquency.
Discrimination in the Handling of Juvenile Offenders by Social-Control Agencies
Authors: Terry Robert M.
Published: March 2007

Do social-control agencies base decisions concerning the hand ling of offenders upon sex, ethnic background, and socio economic status? This study, utilizing a universe of juvenile offenses (N=9,023) in a single community during a five-year period, tests long-accepted hypotheses relating each of these variables to the severity of disposition accorded juvenile offen ders by (1) the police, (2) the probation department, and (3) the juvenile court. Each hypothesis was rejected at each stage of the process. The findings indicate the need for greater caution in assessing the functions of control agencies and for further inten sive research to explicate the complex factors involved.
Deterrence and Marginal Groups
Authors: Zimring Frank , Hawkins Gordon
Published: March 2007

The critical importance of the criminal law as a threatening mechanism is restricted to those who must be threatened in order to secure their compliance. In regard to most "serious" crimes, the socialization process rather than the direct threat of a par ticular legal penalty keeps most people law abiding. Yet, in both the discussion of deterrence and the interpretation of movements in crime rates, this is often overlooked. The theoretical model dealing with "marginal groups" proposed here is designed to focus attention on this problem and enable us to comprehend and cope with it. It provides a frame of reference and an overall perspective for planning research in this field and for interpreting its results.
Public School Attitudes toward Juvenile Delinquents
Authors: Peters Ernest L.
Published: March 2007

This study is based upon data acquired in the assessment of public school attitudes toward epileptics in the United States. A questionnaire, utilizing the semantic differential technique, was mailed to 510 administrators in public elementary and secondary schools in the United States. A total of 375 of the 417 returned instruments were usable in the statistical analyses. The factor structure for each of the ten concepts was determined and com pared to the factor structure for the total group. The factor structure for the juvenile delinquent and the generally negative ratings are reported here. Factor analysis of the responses to the juvenile delinquent concept revealed the dominant dimension of administrators' attitudes to be fear-provoking. The usually dominant factor of evaluation found in most other studies utiliz ing the semantic differential technique was found to be relatively minor in the factor structure of the attitudes toward juvenile delinquents.
The Response of Adults to Delinquency Prevention Programs: The Race Factor
Authors: Hackler James C. , Linden Eric
Published: March 2007

Delinquency prevention programs usually attempt to modify a selected number of boys who either share individual character istics or who live in a specific area. Rarely is it asked if such programs have an impact on the parents or on other adults who come into contact with these boys. The Opportunities for Youth Project in Seattle seemed to have little impact on the boys who participated in the employment program in terms of traditional instruments used to evaluate such experiments. However, the positive attitudes of the boys toward the project caused suspicion that the program did, in fact, make an impact on the residents.

This paper questions the assumption that people living in lower class areas are apathetic and unresponsive to experimental programs in urban central areas. The data suggests that Negro residents and parents were more supportive of the youth employ ment program than white residents. These differences might be explained by "differential perceived mobility;" that is, Negroes in certain Northern cities may see themselves as upwardly mobile (at least in terms of opportunities for their children), while whites in central areas may view themselves as downwardly mobile.

If policy decisions are made on the assumption that minority groups in urban central areas are apathetic, talent and energy that could be utilized more effectively might be ignored.
The ''Religious Factor" and Delinquent Behavior
Authors: Rhodes Albert Lewis , Reiss Albert J.
Published: March 2007

A multivariate model that assumes the effects of religious orientation and attendance for adolescents and their families, the occupational status of the family, and the age and family structure of adolescents are additive is employed to test the effect of religion on delinquent and truant behavior. The test shows that the life chances of being a delinquent or truant depend upon the religious orientation and participation of adolescents and their families. Jews and nonfundamental Protestants have the lowest delinquency rates while subjects with no church affili ation have the highest rates. A higher than expected rate for male Roman Catholics, however, remains unexplained.

A test for the additive properties of the model was limited to examining the rates of court recorded delinquency for white males. While several tests indicate that the effects of the inde pendent variables on delinquency are not altogether additive, the model gives a first approximation to the actual measures of religious orientation and delinquency or truancy. Further work on the relationship of religious factors to deviant behavior is discouraged unless more refined measures of religious orientation and of the quality of religious commitment and participation are secured.
Conflict Resolution in Criminal Justice
Authors: O'Leary Vincent , Newman Donald J.
Published: March 2007

In recent years, there has been a growing emphasis on treating police, courts, and corrections as part of a unified system of criminal justice. While this total system concept has important values, it can oversimplify a complex structure of persons and agencies in interaction with one another. And in the process of that interaction, conflicts arise. Although conflicts can serve positive ends, many of those in criminal justice tend to defeat the achievement of goals of the total system and of its parts.

In order to better understand such conflicts, a conference was held at the School of Criminal Justice at Albany in which probation and police officials were asked to identify types of conflict existing between their agencies. The four types studied were: (1) conflict based on dissensus reflecting differences in values among groups within a system; (2) conflict arising from status and esteem differentials between indivi duals ; (3) operational conflict which is centered in the differences which occur when interrelated agencies seek to serve their own organi zational requirements; and (4) perceptual conflict, the result of distor tions which prevent a clear image of the duties, functions, and purposes of others in the system from being transmitted effectively.

A variety, of resolution techniques are suggested which are specific to kinds of conflict. Alternative methods of a conflict resolution which might be pursued in criminal justice are discussed.
Differences Among Behavioral Variables, Personal Characteristics, and Personality Scores of Tattooed and Nontattooed Prison Inmates
Authors: Howell Robert J. , Payne I. Reed , Roe Allan V.
Published: March 2007

This study was conducted to ascertain differences among be havioral variables, personal characteristics, and personality scores of 101 tattooed and 70 nontattooed inmates at the Utah State Prison. It was found that tattooed inmates had significantly more psychic pain, family discord, self-degradation, social deviancy, impulsiveness, hostility, and depression than nontattooed inmates. The tattooed had lower intelligence quotients, had completed fewer grades in school, and had been involved in more prison rule infractions than the nontattooed inmates. They were more likely to be married, to violate their parole, to have juvenile records, and to misuse drugs.
The Preston Typology Study An Experiment With Differential Treatment In An Institution 1
Authors: Jesness Carl F.
Published: March 2007

The Interpersonal Maturity Level (I-level) classification system subdivides delinquents into types hypothesized as having clear-cut implications for the kinds of treatment intervention strategies required. The present study investigated the feasibility and effec tiveness of applying the system in an institutional setting. Subjects were randomly assigned to a control or experimental group. Experi mental subjects of a particular subtype were assigned to one of six living halls where unique treatment programs were developed.

Immediate effects on institution operation were noted, includ ing a significant reduction in management problems in the experi mental units. Evaluation of pre- and post-psychological and be havioral measures also showed that significantly greater gains were made by the experimental subjects. Parole data, however, revealed no significant differences in the violation rates of experimental and control subjects. The fact that after two years of possible exposure to parole more than three out of five (62 percent) of the 1,607 wards had violated parole and been returned to an institution suggests that whatever rehabilitation is accomplished in an insti tution must be complemented by supportive community services.
Crime: Accident or Disease: An Exploration Using Probability Models for the Generation of Macro-Criminological Data
Authors: Carr-Hill Roy A. , Payne Clive D.
Published: March 2007

One approach in practical criminology, which some call social work, is based on a disease model for most crimes. We have adopted another approach: for certain classes of crime, we have likened the occurrence of an offense to an accident or random event.

Thus, we have drawn heavily on studies of the occurrence of accidents and of accident proneness, which have used probabilistic models to account for these phenomena. In this way we should be able to investigate different accounts of the processes of crime and social control which generate criminological data.

Although aggregate information on offenders and their offenses is usually sparse, we have attempted to test various theories using these data. Without such an attempt, we cannot evaluate the general applicability of conclusions drawn from the more usual research conducted on easily accessible samples which may be a collection of extreme cases.

We find, however, that the different theories are inadequately specified, and that the collection of aggregate data is not normally designed to test them. Unless there are improvements in both theory and data, we shall not be able to distinguish between the various theories of crime and its social control.
Social Climates in Prison: An Attempt to Conceptualize and Measure Environmental Factors in Total Institutions
Authors: Wenk Ernst A. , Moos Rudolf H.
Published: March 2007

The development and standardization of a testing instrument designed to assess social climates in correctional institutions is described. The Correctional Institutions Environment Scale (CIES) has 86 items, organized in nine scales. The first three scales assess people relationship dimensions, subscales four through six assess institutional program dimensions, and subscales seven through nine measure system maintenance dimensions. The administration of the test to groups takes less than 30 minutes. Norms of a national reference group are presented, and four unit profiles are shown as examples. Various possible uses of the CIES are discussed with special attention to the potential utility of the instrument for the institutional administrator.
Urban Violence and Risk to the Individual
Authors: Barnett Arnold , Kleitman Daniel J.
Published: March 2007

A simple procedure using current crime statistics and recent trends is presented for extrapolating the threat violent crime will present over the lifetimes of children born in American cities. Ex pressions are obtained for the mean and variance of the number of nonlethal violent crimes an individual can expect to suffer and the probability that he will die of homicide. The calculations carried out use recent statistics for The Bronx, N.Y.; they include the projection that the fraction of babies born there now who eventually die of murder may reach one in 11.
Religion and Delinquency: the Ecology of a "Lost" Relationship
Authors: Stark Rodney , Kent Lori , Doyle Daniel P.
Published: March 2007

Confusion has developed in the literature over whether religious commitment decreases delinquent behavior. In this paper we show that conflicting findings stem from variations in the religious ecology of the communities studied. In communities where religious commitment is the norm, the more religious an individual, the less likely he or she will be delinquent. However, in highly secu larized communities, even the most devout teenagers are no less delinquent than the most irreligious. This is why the initial studies found no religious ef fects on delinquency. Each was based on highly secularized West Coast com munities, and the results generalize only to similar communities in that area. Elsewhere in the nation, studies have found strong religious effects on delin quency. Using a national sample of sixteen-year-old boys from eighty-seven high schools, we show there is a very substantial negative relationship between religious commitment and delinquency in the great majority of schools-those schools in which religious students are a majority. But the relationship vanishes in the most highly secularized West Coast schools. The theoretical implications of these marked ecological effects are assessed.
Explaining Delinquent Involvement: a Consideration of Suppressor Effects
Authors: Lipton Wendy L. , Smith M. Dwayne
Published: March 2007

Delinquency research is characterized by empirical models which generally afford low degrees of explanatory power. While the small R2s which characterize the discipline may be attributed, in part, to methodological and theoretical problems, part of the explanation for the insufficiency of our models may lie in a failure to consider the statistical issue of suppression. Utilizing data from the first two waves of the Youth in Transition study, an empirical example is offered in an attempt to demonstrate the importance of considering suppressor effects in delinquency research.

Beginning with a bivariate correlation between social class and delinquency that is effectively zero, multivariate analyses are conducted in order to determine whether attachment to school serves as a suppressor in this relationship. The results of the analyses reveal that social class is, in fact, related to delinquent involvement but that the relationship is apparent only when controlling for the attachment variables. Ramifications of this finding are discussed and an explanation of how to recognize suppressor effects is offered.
Identifying Career Offenders Using Self-Reported Data
Authors: DUNFORD FRANKLYN W. , ELLIOTT DELBERT S.
Published: March 2007

Self-reported delinquency data from a national youth panel were used to develop a career offender typology. Seven birth cohorts aged 11-17 at the first of five annual interviews provided the data for the study. The assumption that a career in delinquency implies continuity of involvement across time as well as the frequency with which illegal acts are committed was taken into account in the identification of four classes of offenders. The typology was validated using official arrest histories, social psychological predictor measures known to be associated with delinquent behavior, self-reported delinquency scales, and demographic variables. Offender typologies based upon official arrest and self-reported delinquency data were then compared. The findings indicate that the number of career offenders identified using official arrest data is only a fraction of the number identified using self-reported data. The partitioning of subjects into career offenders, noncareer offenders, and nonoffenders is quite different when using a self-reported compared to an official arrest measure of criminal involvement.