bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
After the flood: Sulfur authigenesis and isotope discrimination in a rewetting coastal fen
Authors: Jenner Anna-Kathrina , Böttcher Michael E. , Fernández-Fernández Luz Eva , Otto Denise , Zeller Mary A. , Koebsch Franziska , Jurasinski Gerald , Kreuzburg Matthias , Rach Benjamin , Winski Lukas , Westphal Julia , Ehlert von Ahn Catia M. , Schmiedinger Iris
Published: March 2022

Land-ocean interactions in the coastal zone are of particular interest regarding the exchange of substances, like nutrients, carbon, sulfur, metals, and water. The rising sea level is and will enhance the pressure of salty solutions on previously fresh water ecosystems. We present here new results on the isotope biogeochemistry of a rewetted peatland, at the southern Baltic Sea, that is impacted by event-type flooding with brackish seawater. Sediment cores on transects through the wetland were investigated for their pore water and solid phase (mineral and organic matter) composition. Different fractions of the soils and solutions were analyzed for the elemental composition, mineral micro-textures, and the stable isotope composition (H, C, O, S) to understand the changes in water and biogeochemical carbon-sulfur-metal cycles due to flooding and the consequence for the development of sulfur isotope signatures in authigenic mineral phases and organic matter.

Flooding events with brackish water increased the availability of sulfate as an electron acceptor for microbial carbon transformations. This added sulfur impacted the remineralization capacity of organic substrates and created space for mineral authigenesis, with related iron sulfide textures. It yields isotope signals that are indicative for non-steady state biogeochemistry of coastal ecosystems and allow for a transfer of proxy information to other modern and past coastal organic-rich peatlands.

The soil cores from the peatland reflects the intense activity of sulfate-reducing bacteria and the associated formation of iron sulfides (essentially pyrite) and provided the isotope evidence for site-dependent sulfurization of organic matter. Sedimentary sulfur fractions and their stable isotope signatures are controlled by the availability of dissolved organic matter and/or methane, reactive iron, and in particular dissolved sulfate and, thereby, from the relative position with respect to the coast line, and depend on the surface topography and soil characteristics. Further mechanistic investigations consider the role of DOS upon changing sulfur substrate availability.

 

Acknowledgement for support by DFG-Baltic TRANSCOAST, ERASMUS, DAAD, Leibniz-IOW
Can litter quality explain landscape evolution: testing a soil-landscape evolution model. 
Authors: Meng Xia , Temme Arnaud , van der Meij Marijn , Kooijman Annemieke , Cammeraat Erik
Published: March 2022

In the geomorphological literature biota are indicated as major drivers of landscape development, where vegetation and soil fauna can act as ecosystem engineers, changing the environment. However, soil landscape evolution models (SLEMs) have until now mostly neglected these biotic processes, such as bioturbation.

We also know that vegetation with different litter qualities can trigger different degrees of animal bioturbation, which can lead to a heterogeneous soil and landscape development both in space and over time. Soil-landscape evolution models have succeeded in incorporating soil development with landscape evolution. However, in these models the roles of biota, biotic interactions and their  connections with soil and landscape evolution processes are still underrepresented.

We identified current SLEMs by a scoping review, and then outlined the role of biota in SLEMs and compared the coverage of processes of SLEMs. From this analysis we selected one of the high-coverage models to testify the hypothesis that landscape patterns can emerge from long-term interactions between biotic processes and soil-landscape processes. In this case we used trees with different litter qualities as biotic factor, and how this can explain the emergence of landscape patterns. We used a test area where topographic differences among species-specific patches are clearly present, taking a well-documented seminatural forest on marls in Central Luxembourg as an example. This system is characterized by a spatially heterogeneous forest pattern dominated by patches of European hornbeam (Carpinus betulus L.) and patches of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) showing also a clear differentiation in hydro-geomorphological process domains. Our hypothesis is that these patterns and process domains emerge over time as a result of these biotic-abiotic interactions. We tested our current landscape process understanding and hypothesis using the SLEMs Lorica with incorporation of these biotic components. The first results shows that after calibration with field data and the inclusion of the litter cycle, the adjusted Lorica model succeeded in simulating the geomorphic processes as affected by different litter qualities in the study area, and that the results are promising in explaining the observed spatial patterns.

 

Keywords: Soil-landscape evolution model; Biota; Litter quality
The angular dependence of spectroscopic radio measurements using multi-spacecraft observations
Authors: Chrysaphi Nicolina , Maksimovic Milan
Published: March 2022

Injections of non-thermal electrons into the heliosphere often manifest as intense radio emissions, the most common of which are known as Type III solar radio bursts.  The emission frequency of solar radio bursts is closely related to the local plasma frequency of the heliosphere, meaning that they can be used to probe the local conditions of the solar corona and interplanetary space.  However, observations of these radio emissions do not represent the true nature of the radio sources due to the scattering of radio photons.  Such radio-wave scattering is induced by anisotropic density fluctuations in the heliosphere and impacts both the imaging and spectroscopic properties of radio sources in a frequency-dependent manner, where lower frequencies are affected to a larger extent.  Using a significant number of multi-spacecraft observations, including from Solar Orbiter and Parker Solar Probe, we investigate the angular dependence of spectroscopic radio observations due to the presence of anisotropic scattering.  We present an improved estimation of the spectroscopic properties and probe whether the spacecraft position affects the recorded decay times.  Comparing observations and state-of-the-art anisotropic scattering simulations introduces new constraints on the models used to describe heliospheric radio-wave scattering.
Evaluation of ensemble precipitation forecasts from NWP models in Indian River basins and agro-climatic zones
Authors: Singh Ankit , jha Sanjeev
Published: March 2022

This study evaluates the deterministic and ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) obtained from four Numerical Weather Prediction (NWPs) models over the Indian region during the monsoon period (June to September) for the years 2011 to 2020. We considered 18 river basins and 14 Agro climatic zones to compare the skill of the forecasts with the observation data. From The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archives, we obtained QPFs from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Korea Meteorological Agency (KMA), and National Centres for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) with 1 to 5 day lead time at a spatial resolution of 0.50. The Integrated Multi-satellite Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) data for the same time period is used as observation data. Deterministic (RMSE, NSE, and CC) and dichotomous (POD and FAR) assessment have been performed to evaluate the skill of the QPF(s). Our result shows that overall the performance of ECMWF ensembles mean is better than the other NWPs model, as the NSE and CC value is more close to 1. The river basins in the southern part of the country (Godavari, Krishna and Cauveri River Basins) have the higher error (RMSE more than 100 and NSE close to 0) compared to Brahmputra, Ganga, and Barak River basins. The errors are less in those agro-climatic zones which has high elevation where the rainfall is less. The detailed result of the ongoing research will be presented at the conference. 
Quantifying oil and gas methane emissions from the US Gulf Coast and Appalachian basins using aircraft observations of ethane and methane
Authors: Ramsden Alice , Ganesan Anita
Published: March 2022

Any decrease in global methane emissions will contribute towards reducing the impacts of climate change. Recently, many nations around the world enacted the Global Methane Pledge to make substantial reductions in methane emissions over the coming decade. A good understanding of methane and its sources is required to effectively target emission reduction policies in anthropogenic sectors and meet these pledges.

Total emissions of methane at both global and regional scales can be estimated from atmospheric observations of methane using inverse modelling techniques. However, the attribution of these total emissions estimates to their sources can be difficult when sources are closely located or when there is uncertainty in the spatial distribution of sources in bottom-up inventories. This is the case for many regions of the world, limiting our ability to understand specific sources.

The method presented in this work aims to improve on this issue and reduce the overall uncertainties involved with quantifying sector-level emissions by using a co-emitted tracer and its emissions ratio relative to methane to partition methane emissions by source. The emission ratios are included as spatially and temporally varying parameters, with their own uncertainties, and are jointly estimated along with emissions. This allows for any variability and uncertainty in the ratio to be statistically propagated through the inverse model and incorporated into the final estimates of sectoral methane emissions. This is a critical step when employing tracers, as they can bias source sector results if not applied accurately.

In this work, we use this novel method with ACT-America aircraft observations of methane and ethane to estimate monthly methane emissions from oil and gas basins across the USA. We show that trends in oil and gas methane emissions varies between basins. We also find that ethane:methane ratios vary largely between basins, which highlights the importance of including the uncertainty in these ratios in any model using ethane as a tracer for fossil fuel emissions.
Vertical profiles of CO2 concentration in the urban area of Krakow, Poland – preliminary results of CoCO2 measurement campaigns.
Authors: Zimnoch Miroslaw , Sekula Piotr , Skiba Alicja , Maslouski Mikita , Jasek-Kaminska Alina , Gorczyca Zbigniew , Chmura Lukasz , Bartyzel Jakub , Necki Jaroslaw , Jagoda Pawel
Published: March 2022

Urban areas, which constitute 2% of the land surface, are responsible for around. 70% of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Estimation of the anthropogenic contribution in total atmospheric CO2 load observed in cities is crucial for better understanding of the human influence on the carbon cycle and can help improve and validate atmospheric models dedicated for such regions.

In 2021, diurnal measurement campaigns were performed with approximately monthly resolution aimed at characterization of vertical profiles of CO2 over the urban area of Krakow, Southern Poland, using a tethered touristic balloon located in the city center. The measurements were conducted up to the altitude of 280 m a.g.l. Simultaneously,  spot air samples were collected in order to determine the contribution of anthropogenic component based on radiocarbon analysis. Based on preliminary results presented in this work, the temporal evolution of the nocturnal (NBL) and convective (CBL) boundary layer over the city can be observed. Part of the profiles also shows CO2 plums detected at the elevation of ca. 200 m a.g.l. originating potentially from nearby industrial emission sources. The model analysis performed using the HySplit model enabled to identify a potential emission source.

This project has been partially supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 958927, and the subsidy of the Ministry of Education and Science.
A Novel Decision Support Environment for Risk Informed Urban Planning in Tomorrow’s Cities 
Authors: McCloskey John , Pelling Mark , Cremen Gemma , Galasso Carmine , Guragain Ramesh , Buchachi Vera
Published: March 2022

This talk introduces the United Kingdom Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenge Research Fund (GCRF) Urban Disaster Risk Hub, the “Tomorrow’s Cities” project. Working internationally, the ultimate goal of the Hub is to reduce disaster risk for the poor and most marginalised in tomorrow’s cities by facilitating a transition from reactive crisis management to proactive risk-informed, people-centred, and pro-poor urban planning and design. Against a backdrop of ever-increasing human populations, urbanisation, social inequality, and climate change, this ambition is critically time-sensitive.

This talk specifically discusses the development of a state-of-practice decision support environment (DSE) that advances beyond the limits of current conventional risk models by placing knowledge co-production at the heart of risk-informed decision-making. Through a democratisation of the concept of risk, we explore understandings of risk that recognise the life experiences of the poor and most marginalised social groups. The DSE explicitly incorporates these diverse understandings to enable the iterative assessment of different policies, urban plans, and interventions in terms of their disaster-related impacts on future economic, environmental, and social objectives cooperatively agreed with relevant stakeholders. These assessments are underpinned by interdisciplinary open-source tools and processes that include: state-of-the-art physics-based multi-hazard and physical vulnerability models, innovative methods for harmonising physical and social sciences, and rigorous capacity-strengthening and knowledge exchange strategies.
Morphology of the ionospheric convection pattern during time-dependent solar wind and magnetospheric driving
Authors: Grocott Adrian , Walach Maria-Theresia
Published: March 2022

We use an 18 year database of Super Dual Auroral Radar Network (SuperDARN) data to investigate the morphology of the large-scale ionospheric convection pattern. In particular, we look statistically at the location of the foci of the dawn and dusk convection cells which, according to the theoretical picture of Cowley and Lockwood (1992), are expected to move towards the dayside (nightside) when the Dungey cycle is dominated by magnetopause (magnetotail) reconnection. We use concurrent observations of the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field to provide a proxy for the level of magnetopause reconnection and ground magnetic indices such as AL to provide an indication of the expected level of magnetotail reconnection. We find that, on average, the cell foci do move as predicted by the theory, but the presence of significant variability is consistent with additional factors being involved in governing the convection morphology at any given instant.

Cowley, S. W. H., and M. Lockwood (1992), Excitation and decay of solar wind-driven flows in the magnetosphere-ionosphere system, Ann. Geophysicae, 10, 103-115.
Heatwave Climate Variability of Historical CMIP5 and CMIP6 Protocols for Turkey
Authors: Yogun Buket , Dursun Bahattin Can , Aksu Aleyna Nur , Hazar Ipeknur , Tan Elcin
Published: March 2022

Heatwaves occur due to atmospheric blockages and high-pressure systems' long-term stasis in the relevant regions. They are extreme weather events that negatively affect life. For example, in Turkey, wildfires during summer 2021 succeeded in a significant heatwave event. Depending on climate change, it is expected that the intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwaves will increase. It is expected that the semi-arid zones, including Turkey, will be more affected by this change. Therefore, this study aims to analyze how well different climate models capture historical heatwave events and determine the differences depending on the CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols. Scenarios corresponding to 4.5 W/m2 and 8.5 W/m2 radiative forcings are discussed for both protocols. The climate models (CMCC-CM and CMCC-CM2-HR4; MRI-ESM1 and MRI-ESM2-0; and HadGEM2-ES and HadGEM3-GC31-LL) which have not been studied for Turkey until now are selected to create a model ensemble for historical heatwave events. Historical heatwaves, which occurred between 1965 and 2015, were compared with the climate models, including the CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols, using probability density functions for ten-year periods. In addition, warm spell days index (ECAHWFI), heatwave duration index (ECAHWDI), heating degree days (ECAHD) climate indices were also analyzed. Preliminary results show that the intensity, duration, and frequency of heatwaves have increased dramatically in Turkey since 2002, and the success of historical climate models in capturing these changes varies from model to model.
Synthetic aperture radar interferometry in a subregional scale as a source for the monitoring of contemporary surface movements in the areas of Poland
Authors: Milczarek Wojciech , Kopeć Anna , Głąbicki Dariusz , Sompolski Marek , Tymplaski Michał , Bugajska Natalia
Published: March 2022

Measuring how the Earth’s surface deforms in response to natural and anthropogenic processes allows scientists to better understand them and the risks associated with them. Synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) enables monitoring the land surface in order to detect and trace changes of altitude which result from such phenomena as volcanic, seismic, landslides, or glacier movements (natural) and mining and post-mining, water pumping, or gas storage (anthropogenic). Simultaneously trace changes of land surfaces having an area up to approx. 48,000 km (in the case of Sentinel 1A/1B satellites for one scene) with an interval of between 6 and 12 days (due to the time required for SAR data acquisition) allows to monitor surface displacements in regional or national scale. 

We present results of measurements covering the entire Poland for the period 6  years, from 2015 to the end of 2020. The time series were developed based on the SBAS algorithm. Due to shifts of scenes in the azimuth direction in a given path, we developed an algorithm to crop and merge the raw imagery to predefined ranges. This allowed to formulate a series of interferometers with the same ranges, uniformly covering the entire area. Finally, we performed calculations of 32 frames (14 from ascending and 18 descending orbits). Based on time series, identified numerous areas where significant, anthropogenic or natural nature, surface displacement appears. The collected displacement observations allow not only to monitor areas where displacement occurs continuously, e.g. as a result of direct effects of mining operations, but also to identify regions of new, previously unidentified displacement, displacements occurring temporarily, or very slow movements of large areas.
The climate of the Eastern Mediterranean and the Nile river basin 2500 years before present: a fully forced paleo regional climate simulation with COSMO-CLM
Authors: Zhang Mingyue , Hartmann Eva , Xoplaki Elena , Wagner Sebastian , Adakudlu Muralidhar
Published: March 2022

How did climatic and environmental variability and stress affect past societies in an area of increasing relevance for contemporary planning and policy concerns? The Eastern Mediterranean (EM) and the Nile river basin (Nile) bear a long history of human social dynamics, making it a suitable area for exploring potential interactions between climate variability, extreme events, environmental changes and society over a variety of time scales. The areas contain abundant natural and human-historical archives that preserve information on the climate conditions and impacts on humans and ecosystems covering the past centuries to millennia. So far, the links between climate and societies are examined mainly from the proxy records or the derived paleoclimatic reconstruction perspectives, without addressing the detail of the processes and underlying dynamics that offer the regional climate model simulations. In order to improve our understanding of past climate in the EM and Nile at the regional scale, we developed a spatially high resolved fully-forced paleoclimate version of the COSMO-CLM running over the past 2500 years. All forcings used for the driving ESM, namely volcanic (stratospheric aerosol optical depth), orbital (eccentricity, obliquity, precession), solar (irradiance), land-use and greenhouse-gas changes are implemented to COSMO 5.0-clm16 (see Hartmann et al. for more details). As a starting point for exploring the relationship between climate and society over the last 2500 years, we compared the mean climate conditions (2m temperature and precipitation) of two periods that are 2400 years apart, namely BCE 400-362 and 1980-2018 CE. Overall, the results show that summer temperatures differ by up to 3 degrees between the two periods. In particular, over the tropics, the temperature differences are largest. Precipitation changes vary within the study area and the climate regimes covered. We will further analyze the dynamics and climate variability of the area over the two periods to explore more details of regional and local climate change.
Substantial zonal temperature gradients in the tropical free troposphere
Authors: Bao Jiawei , Dixit Vishal , Sherwood Steven
Published: March 2022

We show with ERA5 reanalysis data that substantial zonal virtual temperature gradients, on monthly time scales, exist in the tropical free troposphere. The strength of the temperature gradients changes seasonally: the Equatorial Western Pacific Ocean (EWP) is usually much warmer than the Equatorial Central Pacific Ocean (ECP) during December-January-February (DJF), while ECP becomes slightly warmer than EWP during June-July-August (JJA). During DJF, the virtual temperature gradients in the Pacific prevail throughout the entire free troposphere, and are most pronounced in the upper troposphere near 300hPa. We find that the free-tropospheric temperature gradients are related to the pressure gradients, while the pressure gradient force is mainly balanced by the nonlinear terms in the momentum equation---zonal wind advection. Strong zonal winds occur near the equator in January, transporting momentum zonally and balancing the pressure gradient force. The reason that strong zonal winds occur is that vigorous large-scale equatorial waves are excited due to the heating pattern being more symmetric to the equator. In July, the large-scale equatorial waves are less active in the Pacific Ocean. No strong zonal wind exists to sustain the pressure gradient as well as temperature gradient to develop. As a result, the virtual temperature distributions are much more uniform. The results point out the important role of the nonlinear terms in the tropical balanced dynamics on monthly time scales, stressing the need of an improved theoretical understanding and modeling framework of the tropical atmosphere by including the nonlinear terms in the dynamical balance.
Social capital in stressed social-ecological systems: understanding social learning in agricultural communities in China to aid environmental policy and practice
Authors: Zheng Ying , Naylor Larissa A. , Wang Weikai , Stanton Alasdair , Oliver David , Munro Neil , Chng Nai Rui , Waldron Susan , Peng Tao
Published: March 2022

Social learning is increasingly used to address environmental challenges including sustainable farming. How sustainable agricultural knowledge is co-produced, shared and used between farmers, scientists and government is important for building capacity and trust for sustainability in stressed socio-ecological communities worldwide. However, such understanding is largely lacking in developing economies. This research presents the findings from analysis of smallholder farmers’ social learning in three agricultural regions in China. Combining an existing social capital framework with questionnaires (Q) and interviews (I) with farmers (Q n=632; I n=30) and officials (Q n=77, I n=64), we demonstrate how farmers access and share farming knowledge through bonding, bridging and linking networks. In two regions, family bonding was the dominant learning pathway while linking networks to access ‘formal knowledge’ from government (or scientists) were limited. However, in the third region, government played a more important role in farmers’ knowledge sharing and acquisition processes. In all regions, learning from researchers was largely absent. Key suggestions about ways to enhance use of multiple forms of knowledge are provided. First, this study highlights the need for a more locally and socially embedded approach to facilitate enhanced farmers’ knowledge exchange and learning, to then build trust and capacity to help better address pressing local environmental challenges. Second, we show how social dynamics research can usefully inform knowledge exchange plans for collaborative, international development science, so that it can be best suited to local contexts, to optimise research impacts, capacity building and avoiding of mismatches. 
Groundwater salinization dynamics - an isotope approach
Authors: Külls Christoph , Bassukas Dimitris
Published: March 2022

The evolution of groundwater salinization often is difficult identify, track and characterize. Additional factors such as hydro-climatic variability, pumping, pollution, and mixing with other groundwater end members in the borehole add complexity to the hydrochemical signal. Different isotope methods can provide insight into the inherent dynamics of groundwater salinization. The application of different isotope systems has been studied both theoretically using reactive transport models and in the field in different case studies. Tritium, SF6 and 14C, in combination with 13C as a marker of geochemical interaction, provide a straightforward access to information on the hydrodynamics of the flow system. Combined with data on salinity and on the geochemical fingerprint of salinization, these residence time tracers provide a first insight into the expected dynamics of changes. Radium isotope ratios allow an even more detailed reconstruction as the sorption of radium depends on the salinity of ambient groundwater and affects the transport behaviour. The chromatographic effect induced by salinity dependent transport behaviour can be used to date the onset of salinization. These concepts have been validated both by applying coupled groundwater flow and reactive transport models with PhreeqC and Geochemical Workbench and practically in several test sites. The transport modeling indicated that especially the combination of conservative residence time tracers and non-conservative tracers yield information on the dynamics of groundwater salinization, especially at time scales of decades to centuries and more. The verification of these concepts in case studies in Saudi-Arabia, in the Dead Sea valley and in the coastal aquifer of Samos within the PRIMA project MEDSAL confirms the viability of isotope methods in groundwater salinization studies.  
High Strain Rate Compressive Failure of Porous Brittle Snow Microstructures Simulated by Peridynamics
Authors: Ritter Jonas , Zaiser Michael
Published: March 2022

Highly-porous cohesive granular materials such as snow possess complex modes of failure. Apart from classical failure modes, they show microstructural failure and fragmentation associated with densification within a local, narrow zone. Therefore cracks may form and propagate even under compressive load ('anticracks', 'compaction bands'). Such failure modes are of great importance in a range of geophysical contexts. For instance, they may control the release of snow slab avalanches and influence fracturing of porous rock formations. In the snow context, specific failure mechanisms of the ice matrix and their interplay with the microstructure geometry of snow are still poorly understood. Recently, X-ray computed tomography images have provided insights into snow microstructure and capability of directly simulating its elastic response by the finite element method (FEM). However, apart from thermodynamically driven healing processes the inelastic post-peak behaviour of the microstructure is controlled by localized damage, large deformations and internal contacts.  As a result of the well-known limitations of FEM to capture these processes we use Peridynamics (PD) as a non-local continuum method to approach the problem. Due to its formulation, (micro)cracks and damage are emergent features of the problem solution that do not need to be known or located in advance. In this contribution we perform unconfined displacement controlled high strain-rate uniaxial compression simulations of snow microstructures within a peridynamic framework. Computed tomography images of snow specimen serve as a simulation data base. The obtained results show a novel insight into local failure of snow and allow a better comprehension of the underlying failure mechanisms. This study contributes to improve non-local macroscopic constitutive models for snow for future applications.
The updated CICERO Simple Climate Model – an open-source emulator contribution to the AR6 process
Authors: Sandstad Marit , Skeie Ragnhild Bieltvedt , Samset Bjørn Hallvard
Published: March 2022

The Cicero Simple Climate Model (CICERO-SCM) is an energy balance model originally developed around 20 years ago, in Fortran, that has since been in continuous use and subject to minor revisions to keep up with updated best estimates in the science. It was recently used as one of a suite of emulators linking Working Groups 1 and 3 of the IPCC 6th Assessment Report. In this presentation, we outline the model and its key features and components and show its native projections of future climate following the SSP Pathways and its performance as an IPCC AR6 emulator. We also present a python port of the model that will shortly be made publicly available.

 

For AR6, CICERO-SCM was tuned to reproduce the surface temperature evolution assessed by Working Group 1, as well as a range of other parameters. For probabilistic uncertainty estimation, we built on the method of (Skeie et al. 2018) where a large set of observation based prior assumptions on ocean heat content and temperature change was ran through the model to create a large consistent set of parameters. In the AR6 process, this set of parameters was used as an initial pool of useable parameter sets. From there the AR6 statistical distributions of current temperature, ECS and aerosol forcing were used to create a parameter subset. As part of this effort, a python wrapper was developed and integrated into the openscm-runner framework, to go between the formats and setups of the AR6 inputs, and the setup expected by the Fortran based binary.

CICERO-SCM has recently been ported to python, and is currently being tested for public, open-source release. The base version will include tunable parameters and the possibility for running user generated scenarios and will form the basis for a number of planned extensions – notably regarding short-lived climate forcers and the interaction of anthropogenic climate change with natural variability.
Recent and future developments in the Volta River basin from a Nexus perspective: Synergies and trade-offs between different water uses under climate change
Authors: Liersch Stefan , Koch Hagen
Published: March 2022

To feed the growing population, achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, and fulfil the commitments of the Paris Agreement, West African countries need to invest in agriculture and renewable energy, among other sectors. Irrigated agriculture, feeding millions of people, and hydropower, which generates clean electricity, both depend on the availability of water. We have investigated the extent to which synergies and trade-offs exist between simulated water demand and supply of three planned irrigation sites in the Volta basin and the hydropower potential at four dams using an eco-hydrological model. The impacts in terms of changes in the water balance and availability were attributed to single projects (irrigation site or dam).

We found that without upstream reservoirs, the naturally intermittent flow regime of the Black and White Volta Rivers either limits or makes dry-season irrigation impossible, depending on the location (climate) in the basin. The planned additional irrigated area of 104,000 ha could feed about half a million people but relies on upstream dams transforming the intermittent to a permanent flow regime. Irrigation withdrawals would be at the expense of hydropower potential, which decreased by 139 GWh/a. The 182 GWh/a of the planned Pwalugu dam thus contribute only 24% of its potential. Moreover, our process-based simulations revealed that solely the transformation from intermittent to permanent flow regime caused accumulating transmission losses downstream, which can be substantial.

Simulated future crop water requirements did not increase under climate change projections using an ensemble of 8 bias-adjusted global climate models, because the higher evaporative demand was outbalanced by increasing precipitation.
Plume push force: a relevant driver of plate tectonics that can be constrained by horizontal and vertical plate motions
Authors: Stotz Ingo , Vilacís Berta , Hayek Jorge N. , Bunge Hans-Peter , Friedrich Anke M.
Published: March 2022

Earth's surface moves in response to a combination of tectonic forces from the thermally convective mantle and plate boundary forces. Plate motion changes are increasingly well documented in the geologic record and they hold important constraints. However, the underlying forces that initiate such plate motion changes remain poorly understood. I have developed a novel 3-D spherical numerical scheme of mantle and lithosphere dynamics, aiming to exploit information of past plate motion changes in quantitative terms. In order to validate the models and single out those most representative of the recent tectonic evolution of Earth, model results are compared to global plate kinematic reconstructions. Additionally, over the past years a pressure driven, so-called Poiseuille flow, model for upper mantle flux in the asthenosphere has gained increasing geodynamic attention–for a number of fluid dynamic arguments. This elegantly simple model makes a powerful testable prediction: Plate motion changes should coincide with regional scale mantle convection induced elevation changes (i.e., dynamic topography). For this the histories of large scale vertical lithosphere motion recorded in the sedimentary record holds important information.

Here, I will present analytical results that help to better understand driving and resisting forces of plate tectonics – in particular the plume push force. Moreover, numerical results indicate that mantle convection plays an active role in driving plate motions through pressure driven upper mantle flow. Altogether, theoretical and observational constrains provide powerful insights for geodynamic forward and inverse models of past mantle convection.
Evaluating the Water Ecosystem Services Footprint to support agricultural water management in Central Italy: a watershed scale approach
Authors: Pacetti Tommaso , Castelli Giulio , Schroeder Boris , Bresci Elena , Caporali Enrica
Published: March 2022

The application of Water-related Ecosystem Services (WES) concept in water resources planning can support the development of productive activities and, at the same time, sustain local ecosystems. Gaining insights into the ecohydrological behavior of a basin and the anthropogenic pressures on the available water resources requires the spatial explicit evaluation of WES for the identification of the strategies to explore the sustainable coupling of biosphere and anthroposphere. By integrating hydrological modelling and Water Footprint (WF) analysis, this study aims at evaluating a Water Ecosystem Services Footprint (WESF) associated with the agricultural sector analyzing both the supply and demand of WES.

Combining the evaluation of WES demand, determined by the agricultural sector using the WF assessment methodology and the quantification of WES supply by applying the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), the proposed methodology introduces green, blue, and gray WESF indicators to identify the main hotspots connected to the agricultural production. The methodology is applied to a specific case study in the upstream part of the Arno River basin (Central Italy).

WESF represents an operative tool to look at agricultural water management from an ecosystem-based perspective, introducing a useful approach that potentially can be extended to different sectors. The results allow the evaluation of WESF spatial pattern, identifying the most critical areas in the catchment and supporting a stronger integration of water management with ecosystems conservation.
The value of incorporating technological uncertainty in adaptive infrastructure planning – a conceptual example in hydropower investment
Authors: Pachos Kevis , Gonzalez Jose M. , Erfani Tohid , Basheer Mohammed , Martínez-Ceseña Eduardo , Panteli Mathaios , Harou Julien J.
Published: March 2022

In response to the increasing environmental concerns, there has been significant research and development of power generation technologies based on renewable energy sources (RES) such as solar, and hydrogen. On the one hand, the technologies are becoming more attractive by offering higher efficiencies and lifetimes, and lower costs. On the other hand, it has become challenging to cost-effectively plan and deploy RES technologies as their characteristics have become significantly more uncertain. This can have strong impacts on other established renewable generation technologies, such as hydropower, which might become less or more attractive depending on technological change. Furthermore, in the context of interlinked water-energy systems, RES impacts on hydropower can have cascading effects on water use. Accordingly, decision makers require improved planning strategies to “adapt” to technological change when making long-term planning and investment decisions. 

This work explores how considering RES, namely solar and hydrogen, alongside their technological uncertainties related to installation costs and lifetimes, would impact hydropower investments in an adaptive plan. Based on a conceptual case study of a water-energy system, we demonstrate that hydropower investments could be delayed and/or reduced because of the possibility of efficiency improvements related to renewable energy technologies. Furthermore, we quantify the forgone financial value from not using adaptive approaches to design and plan infrastructure projects under technological uncertainty.
S2S Extreme Weather Featurization: A Global Skill Assessment Study
Authors: Patel Zubeida , Baloyi Gciniwe , Watson Campbell , Zaytar Akram , Zadrozny Bianca , Civitarese Daniel , Makhanya Sibusisiwe , Vos Etienne
Published: March 2022

A more accurate characterization of S2S extremes may result in great positive societal impact. Featurized S2S forecasts in the form of risk or extreme indices will aid in disaster response (especially for drought and flood events), inform disease outbreaks and heatwave onset, persistence, and decay. In this study, we identify a set of ECMWF-derived extreme weather indices that have spatio-temporal windows of opportunity for better-than-climatology skill. We report on the correlation between ECMWF-derived indices and ground-truth values.  The selected indices can be calculated directly form probabilistic daily forecasts, or alternatively, by training specialized ML-models to process ensembles in a multi-task learning setup. Our goal is to find better approaches to communicate S2S climate risk by deploying a set of ECMWF-derived climate forecast products.
A bed pressure correction for depth-averaged granular flow models to ensure the physical threshold of motion
Authors: Fernandez-Nieto Enrique , Bouchut François , Delgado Sánchez Juan Manuel , Narbona-Reina Gladys , Mangeney Anne
Published: March 2022

Depth-averaged models, such as the Savage-Hutter model with Coulomb or Pouliquen friction laws, are usually considered to simulate aerial and submarine avalanches. In particular,  submarine avalanches can be the source of a tsunami. These models are presented in local coordinates over the topography or a reference bottom. We show in this work that  classical models do not in some cases preserve the physical threshold of motion. On the one hand, the simulated granular mass can start to flow  even if the slope angle of its free surface is lower than the repose angle of the granular material involved. On the other hand, the granular mass can stay at rest being the slope angle of the free surface higher than the repose angle of the material. Several numerical tests are presented  to illustrate these problems related to classical depth averaged models. In this work we also propose an initial correction which ensures that the model preserves, up to the second order, the physical threshold of motion defined by the repose angle of the material. Several numerical tests are presented, by comparing also with experimental data to illustrate the effect of the proposed correction.
Community-centred Disaster Risk Reduction: Experiences from “Our Flood Mural” in Beira, Mozambique
Authors: Huthoff Fredrik , Young Adele , Cortes Arevalo Juliette , Hagedooren Hugo , Rudolph Michelle
Published: March 2022

Based on the notion that Flood risk communication contributes to Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR), a novel community-centred approach called “Our Flood Mural”/“Nosso Mural de Cheias” was tested in Beira, Mozambique. “Our Flood Mural” centres around the co-creation of an interactive mural painting that highlights local experiences of past flood events, informs on the existing flood risk in the area and suggests possible risk-reducing measures. The mural brings together local knowledge and arts, and modern information technologies. “Our Flood Mural” can easily be upscaled and adapted to the local context in various settings.

A key part of “Our Flood Mural” was active engagement with the local community. Survey results and plenary community sessions were held and showed that the people of the targeted community have a broad understanding of what they can do to reduce flood risk, such as strengthening of rooftops, moving to higher ground, and freeing drainage canals from clutter. These shared experiences were incorporated in the design of the mural which was made by a local artist. Also, two interactive QR-codes were included on the mural to offer additional (online) information: one linking to local weather forecasts and giving background information on the development process of the mural. The location of the mural was mutually decided to be at a local market where it is exposed to a wide audience on a daily basis.

During the implementation of the mural, festivities were organized with local leaders present to draw attention to the purpose of the mural. Local leaders, community members, and aid organisations expressed ownership and pride as well as the desire to expand the idea to other locations and to address societal issues other than flood risk. It was also noticeable that the linkage of the mural to online information drew attention in the community, showing the mural’s potential as a means of introducing new technologies and information channels to reach a target audience.

Lessons-learned from our community-centred approach include the importance of organizing plenary sessions and carrying out local surveys to assure accurate representation of the communities’ flood risk situation, and to assure adequate use of imagery and/or text. The visibility and accessibility of the different steps in the co-creation approach can help communities, technical experts, aid organizations, and officials interact constructively and identify potential improvements in each other’s actions.
Assessing the spatial and temporal variability of MeHg biogeochemistry and bioaccumulation in the Mediterranean Sea with a coupled 3D model
Authors: Rosati Ginevra , Canu Donata , Lazzari Paolo , Solidoro Cosimo
Published: March 2022

Previous research highlighted that Mediterranean tunas, as well as other edible fish species, are particularly enriched in mercury (Hg) due to a combination of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological factors that include a shallower occurrence of the MeHg concentrations maxima compared to the Ocean, likely resulting in higher phytoplankton exposure and bioaccumulation.
We developed a numerical model to simulate the fate of Hg species in the ocean, coupled with hydrodynamic transport and with the biogeochemical dynamics of nutrients, plankton, and detritus already implemented in the OGSTM-BFM model. The model is applied to a 3D domain of the Mediterranean Sea with a 1/16° horizontal resolution (~6 km) to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of MeHg distribution and bioaccumulation in the plankton food web. 
The model reproduced strong zonal gradients of MeHg concentrations related to primary production in agreement with the observations. Model results also highlight the role of winter deep convection and summer water stratification in shaping the vertical distribution of MeHg. The modeled bioaccumulation dynamics in the plankton food web are characterized by high spatial and temporal variability driven by plankton phenology. Plankton MeHg enrichment relative to water concentrations, expressed as BAF (bioaccumulation factor) is maximum for the smallest phytoplankton group (picophytoplankton) and for the group representative of carnivorous mesozooplankton. The overall content of MeHg in plankton is highest in areas of the Mediterranean Sea where picophytoplankton is abundant and MeHg water concentrations are relatively high, such as the Tyrrhenian Sea and Southern Adriatic Sea. Biomagnification is maximum in areas of higher primary production where the trophic web includes more carnivorous zooplankton, such as the Alboran Sea and the Southern Western Mediterranean Sea. 
The comparison among dynamics of different subbasins for the hindcast simulation suggests cascading effects of increasing water temperature through the decline of deep convection events in the Northern Western Mediterranean Sea that results in higher MeHg concentrations in the intermediate waters, and in turn in enhanced bioaccumulation. The model will be used to carry out long-term simulations under the climate change scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.