INFORMATION AND ANALYTICAL FORECASTING SYSTEMS INFORMATION SECURITY VULNERABILITIES AND THREATS
Authors:   Military Institute of the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv Ukraine, Lienkov S.V. , Juliy V.M. ,   Khmelnytskyi National University, Miroshnichenko O.V. ,   Military Institute of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Braun V.O. ,   Military Institute of Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv, Prokhorskyi S.I. ,   Kruty Heroes Military Institute of Telecommunications and Information Technology
Published: October 2023

The paper proposes a block diagram of an information-analytical system for predicting vulnerabilities and threats to information security. The analysis of the conducted research allows us to conclude that in order to solve the problem of research and development of an information-analytical fuzzy system for a logical fuzzy conclusion about the emergence of vulnerabilities and threats to information security, automating the analysis of the message flow of thematic Internet resources, it is advisable to use expert forecasting systems. To solve the problems of predicting vulnerabilities and threats to information security of confidential data based on the flow of thematic messages of Internet resources using the proposed algorithms and method, hybrid-type expert forecasting systems designed for use on general-purpose information and computer technology can be used. The algorithm for predicting vulnerabilities and threats to information security implemented in the information and analytical system based on the analysis of the data flow of thematic Internet resources allows automating the information process of detecting new vulnerabilities and threats, provides information security specialists with the opportunity to assess the degree of security of resources in a timely manner and, if necessary, take appropriate measures for neutralization possible threats and vulnerabilities, thereby increasing the information security of computing computer systems against the implementation of new network computer attacks. An analysis of fuzzy logical inference systems, modern tools for processing large volumes of data, tools for morphological text analysis, and ontology editors was conducted. UML diagrams of activities, sequences of actions, and classes were built to carry out logical modeling of the information system for forecasting vulnerabilities and threats to information security. For the physical modeling of the system, UML-diagrams of deployment and components have been developed. The possibility of implementing an information-analytical system for predicting vulnerabilities and threats to information security based on the analysis of text messages of thematic Internet resources using the following software products is substantiated: DBMS MySQL, ontology editor - Protégé, fuzzy logic inference system - Fuzzy Logic Designer, morphological data analysis tools - Mystem. To evaluate the obtained results, the indicators MAPE, MAE, RMSE for the values of forecasting the occurrence of vulnerabilities and information security threats, as well as smoothed time series calculated on their basis with a period of three and five.