La recherche de la stabilité : les facteurs réels (Sur la différence entre les politiques anticycliques et les politiques de croissance harmonisée)
Authors: Perroux François 
Published: August 2023

<i>The search for starility : the real factors

on the difference between anticyclïcal and balanced growth policies </i>

The problem posed is that of taking into account explicitly, with a view to action, innovations, as they present themselves today, in relation to population and institutional factors.

The characteristic feature of modern economic policy in this field is that the latter attempts to act upon the dynamics of growth at the same time as il strives to attenuate the severity of cyclical fluctuations.

In the study of the difference between anlteyclical and balanced-growth policies the following conceptual toots are required : the maximization of real output with the minimization of its fluctuations the reduction of distortions between sectors ; the conciliation of the projects of individuals and social groups the incompatibility of whose projects is at the root of the incompatibilities between rales of increase in investment, saving, capacity and the labour force. These concepts contrast with those used by anticyclical policy.

The question is then posed whether it is passiMe to increase the rede of growth of real output in the long period by the use of public innovation and investment without increasing cyclical instability.

This question raises another regarding the distinction between induced and autonomous investment. We may note, in the first instance, that, alongside an investment induced by the growth of neat output , there is an investment brought about by the public sector’s activities in the field of innovation. This supply, to the private sector, of innovation opportunities raises both the «ceiling» and «floor» of the growth trend.

As regards induced investment itself, it must be recognised that it has become today capable of intention.

The increase in public innwalional investment implies, in turn, a reduction in consumption. In modern conditions this may imply that the Slate must generate at least part of this additional non-consumption.

Finally, in so far as a long-term development plan is concerned, the State must achieve two types of harmonization — vertical and horizontal, as between industries, and regional. This leads to an analysis of the option for development as between development poles and territories.

The differences between rales of increase in productivities and real output as between nations are an important source of instability. It is clear that nations possess very unequally the capacity to save , invest and innovate. Unequal also is their capacity to export innovations. There exists a critical point where the territorial organization of the economy and its functional organization conflict. This leads to a distinction between a policy of balanced growth, on the international level, and a juxtaposition of national policies. If the former were chosen it would imply at least the crealiqn of new industries whose costs and advantages would be shared by all and which would constitute economic complexes whose growth would stimulate that of their environment.

In so far as the coordination of national development plans is not accepted, it must be concluded that no appropriate institutional reply has been proposed to the problems raised by modern technology.