bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Climate Adaptation of Railways: Lessons from Sweden
Authors: Lindgren Johan , Jonsson Daniel K. , Carlsson-Kanyama Annika
Published: November 2023

The current variability in weather and climate is posing a challenge for transport infrastructure. However, during the past decade the need to adapt to a changing climate has attracted increasing attention. This paper summarises a case study on the future vulnerability to climate change of the Swedish railway transport system and its adaptive capacity. The combination of a long time horizon in planning and an expected increasing demand for rail traffic raises many questions regarding how adaptation to climate change can be accounted for in future planning, design and management of railways. The case study was essentially based on interviews with key personnel within the Swedish Rail Administration. Views on vulnerability and adaptation to climate change were documented, and the need for improved methods to assess the vulnerability and adaptive capacity related to climate change for the Swedish railways was addressed. The conclusions of the paper are addressed to the European railway context at large. Firstly, systematic mapping of current climate vulnerabilities and their consequences is important in order to guide the implementation of adaptation measures. Secondly, climate change should be considered in the early stages of planning and included in risk and vulnerability assessments. In assessing future conditions with the aim of prioritising adaptation measures, current methodologies should be complemented with more future-orientated tools. When designing adaptation measures, the effects of potential goal conflicts should also be assessed, in order to avoid the implementation of counter-productive measures. The possibility of creating synergies with climate mitigation goals and other environmental goals should also be investigated.
Book review: Rob Konings, Hugo Priemus and Peter Nijkamp (2008) The Future of Intermodal Freight Transport Operations, Design and Policy
Authors: Jourquin Bart
Published: November 2023

In another recent book review published in the European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research, David Banister (2008) wrote “Having read this book, one is left with a feeling that the important issues raised should have been at the forefront of policy debates for many decades, not just now”. I have to confess that I have exactly the same feeling after having read “The Future of Intermodal Freight Transport”. Indeed, this book explores the important challenge of increasing the scope of intermodal freight transport, and I remember the same question was already an issue in the 80', when I was a young researcher. This reflection, however, does not affect the overall quality of this book.
International Air Transportation Carriers: Evidence from SFA and DEA Technical Efficiency Results (1991-2000)*
Authors: Michaelides Panayotis G. , Belegri-Roboli Athena , GKarlaftis Matthew , Marinos Theocharis
Published: November 2023

In this paper we estimate technical efficiency in International Air Transport, by means of Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA) using a panel set of the world's twenty-four (24) largest network airlines, for the period 1991-2000. The results are compared to those from Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a popular approach for efficiency measurement in the literature. Findings suggest that airlines experience constant returns to scale, while technical efficiency ranges between 51% and 97% approximately. Furthermore, the level of technology experienced a slight increase, while the privatization of few of the airlines in the data set didn’t seem to affect their technical efficiency. Results from SFA and DEA do not vary significantly.
Service Quality Aspects in Ferry Passenger Transport - Examples from Norway
Authors: Mathisen Terje Andreas , Solvoll Gisle
Published: November 2023

Changes in the level of service for scheduled passenger transport influence both operating costs and passengers’ generalised travel costs. This article focuses on the service level and service quality of ferry crossings using empirical data from a survey carried out in Norway in 2008. Using gap analysis we document how both enterprise and household ferry users rate the importance of and their current satisfaction with a number of service aspects concerning Norwegian ferries. Fares, discount schemes and sufficient capacity in the summer are rated as highly important but providing a low level of satisfaction by both user enterprise and household respondents. These elements should, therefore, be paid special attention to when adjusting the service level. The results from the survey are of special interest for the Norwegian transport authorities with respect to revisions of the national ferry service standard, and the survey method can provide a useful tool when evaluating transport initiatives.
Lowest Cost Intermodal Rail Freight Transport Bundling Networks: Conceptual Structuring and Identification
Authors: Kreutzberger Ekki
Published: November 2023

Bundling, the process of transporting goods belonging to different flows in a common vehicle (like train, barge or truck) or other unit during part of their journey, is a core business of the transport sector. Operators periodically evaluate their service networks and adjust their bundling operations. The adjustments respond to changing cost structures, changing competition and changing situations in terms of demand and performance requirements. One can distinguish direct bundling from different types of complex bundling, such as hub-and-spoke or line bundling. Complex bundling networks have intermediate exchange nodes and longer routes, but less vehicle routes. The latter means that required network volumes could be lower, service frequencies higher or vehicle loads larger. In this sense, complex bundling allows smaller flows to participate in the advantages of large-scale operations and therefore is an important option to successfully develop intermodal transport. The additional impedance of complex bundling networks has been and still is an incentive for intermodal rail freight operators to switch from complex to direct bundling. However, the flow sizes of many rail relations are too small for direct bundling. If nevertheless direct bundling is applied, trainloads or service frequencies decline and/or small flows will shift to the road sector. In this paper, which focuses on intermodal rail freight networks, we analyse the trends of bundling innovation, and discuss the operational mechanisms in bundling networks and their quantitative impact for the number of train routes, service frequency, the size of trainloads, and required network transport volume. Furthermore we identify which bundling types lead to large trainloads and lowest costs, given certain network transport volumes and certain service frequency requirements. On the basis of a large-scale comparison of bundling networks with large trainloads and ones with lowest costs we conclude, that a large trainload is a good first indicator for lowest cost network: if an intermodal basic bundling network has the largest technically allowed trainload and this is larger than of competing bundling types, the envisaged network is likely to also have the lowest network costs.
Adaptive Airport Strategic Planning
Authors: Kwakkel J.H. , Walker W.E. , Marchau V.A.W.J.
Published: November 2023

Airport Strategic Planning (ASP) focuses on the development of plans for the long-term development of an airport. The dominant approach for ASP is Airport Master Planning (AMP). The goal of AMP is to provide a detailed blueprint for how the airport should look in the future, and how it can get there. Since a Master Plan is a static detailed blueprint based on specific assumptions about the future, the plan performs poorly if the real future turns out to be different from the one assumed. With the recent dramatic changes occurring in the context in which an airport operates (e.g., low cost carriers, new types of aircraft, the liberalization and privatization of airlines and airports, fuel price developments, the European Emission Trading Scheme), the uncertainties airports face are bound to increase. Hence, there is a great need for finding new ways to deal with uncertainty in ASP. An alternative direction is to develop an adaptive approach that is flexible and over time can adapt to the changing conditions under which an airport most operate. Three adaptive alternatives to AMP have been discussed in the literature. This paper explores these three alternative approaches. Based on this, it concludes that these approaches are complementary and that it might be worthwhile to combine the three into a new, adaptive approach to ASP. A design that integrates the key ideas from the three alternative approaches is presented and illustrated with a case based on Amsterdam Airport Schiphol.
Prospect Theory and Travel Behaviour: a Personal Reflection Based on a Seminar
Authors: Wee Bert Van
Published: November 2023

This paper is the final paper of a special issue on Prospect Theory (PT) and its applications in travel behaviour research. It is largely (but not exclusively) based on discussions held during a seminar that took place on the 8th of October 2009. The paper presents some personal reflections based on the discussion subjects on the use of PT in the area of travel behaviour research, clustered by the position of PT as a theory, applications of PT, future research, and relevance for policy making. The most important conclusion of the papers are firstly that PT, in addition to other theories like Utility Theory (UT), can help to improve our understanding of choices in the area of travel behaviour. The concepts of loss aversion and reference points are especially useful. A second important conclusion is that PT is not the only theory challenging UT. For example Regret Theory and the concept of Bounded Rationality also challenge PT. In addition, some of the premises of PT, at least the importance of some reference points, are not exclusively the domain of PT, but also that of other theories, including UT. Thirdly, it is important to realize that critics of Utility Theory (UT) as it is used in specific studies related to travel behaviour are not necessarily critics of UT in general. Fourth, it seems better to focus on the distinguishing premises of PT than on the theory as a fully fledged alternative to UT. A fifth outcome is that PT can be used both to increase our understanding of travel behaviour, as well as for the evaluation of the outcomes of models. A final outcome is that there is no need to choose a theory before collecting the data.
Barriers to Entry in Rail Passenger Services: Empirical Evidence for Tendering Procedures in Germany
Authors: Beck Arne
Published: November 2023

As in several other European Union Member States, Germany has used tendering to an increasing degree since the mid-1990s for subsidized passenger rail services. In order to determine whether market entry barriers exist in this market, a dataset of 30 German tendering procedures with start of operations between 1997 and 2007 is analyzed. The data consists of comprehensive primary data provided directly by public transport authorities and operators. On average 11 rail companies requested the tendering documents, but only four per tendering procedure submitted bids. The empirical analysis shows that there are two main tendering conditions that clearly influence the number of bidders. The first is the percentage of risk assumed by the public transport authority for price increases on input factors like personnel or fuel. This shows a positive correlation with the number of bidders. The second is the level of revenue risk to be assumed by the operator, which shows a negative correlation. Both correlations are highly significant. Authorities in Germany as well as in other countries using the tendering instrument should be aware of the influence of uncertainty and therefore avoid imposing untenable risks on operators. A high level of uncertainty will reduce authorities’ efficiency gains by reducing competition and making it necessary for operators to calculate an increased risk premium.
Fitting Airport Privatisation to Purpose: Aligning Governance, Time and Management Focus
Authors: Donnet Timothy , Keast Robyn , Walker Arron
Published: November 2023

Where airports were once the sole responsibility of their governments, liberalisation of economies has seen administrative interests in airport spaces divested increasingly towards market led authority. Extant literature suggests that actions in decision spaces can be described under broad idealised forms of governance. However in looking at a sample of 18 different airports it is apparent that these classic models are insufficient to appreciate the contextual complexity of each case. Issues of institutional arrangements, privatisation, and management focus are reviewed against existing governance modes to produce a model for informing privatisation decisions, based on the contextual needs of the individual airport and region. Expanding governance modes to include emergent airport arrangements both contribute to the existing literature, and provides a framework to assist policy makers and those charged with the operation of airports to design effective governance models. In progressing this framework, contributions are made to government decision makers for the development of new, or review of existing strategies for privatisation, while the private sector can identify the intent and expectations of privatisation initiatives to make better informed decisions.
Modelling Traveller Behaviour under Emergency Evacuation Conditions
Authors: Pel Adam , Bliemer Michiel , Hoogendoorn Serge
Published: November 2023

Dynamic traffic simulation models are frequently used to support decisions when planning an evacuation. This paper focuses on limitations in the modelling of travellers’ behaviour with respect to traffic information and compliance to evacuation instructions. More specifically, we propose a model framework where the traffic simulation is executed only once (instead of many times within an iterative traffic flow convergence framework, e.g., yielding a user-equilibrium assignment). Within this one-time execution of the traffic simulation (or dynamic network loading procedure), travellers are initially assigned to their instructed route (and destination), yet may continuously update their destination and route during their trip – while accounting for the possibly disutility associated with non-compliance – thereby responding to the changing (traffic) conditions (but not anticipating these conditions, as otherwise assumed by an iterative userequilibrium assignment). This way, the realized departure time, destination and route decisions are a result of the trade-off that travellers make between complying with the prescribed travel behaviour and following their preferred travel behaviour (i.e., the travel decisions that would have been made in absence of an active evacuation plan). Also, this approach allows modelling full compliance, no compliance, and any state in between. The face-validity of the model characteristics are illustrated using a hypothetical test example. The results show the importance of capturing compliance and information levels in the traffic simulation model, as they have a large impact upon the evacuation efficiency.
Planning Approaches to Achieve a More Sustainable Travel Industry for Tourism in the UK - a Case Study
Authors: Robbins Derek , Brackstone John , Dickinson Janet
Published: November 2023

Transport is tourism's largest contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In the UK domestic tourism is dominated by car. The UK government is committed to a decrease in carbon emissions and to growing its tourism industry simultaneously. This paper explores the potential conflicts between the transport and tourism policy objectives and evaluates current policies. One obvious approach is to achieve a modal shift away from car to more sustainable public transport. The National Trust operates a large number of tourist attractions in the UK and has attempted to reduce the share of arrivals by car. The paper uses a large sample of visitors to National Trust properties as a case study to measure modal share and identify recent trends. The paper identifies those factors which have the greatest impact on modal choice and evaluates the effectiveness of policies aimed at achieving modal shift. The paper concludes with a discussion outlining the need for a co-ordinated, integrated approach to tourism mobility, highlighting the limitations arising from stakeholders, such as visitor attractions, operating in isolation.
Geneva, from Car-euphoria to Opening of the Borders: Trajectory and Coordination of Transport and Urban Planning Policy
Authors: Maksim Hanja
Published: November 2023

Over the last two decades, urban planning has been reapplied in several European countries: common tendencies that underline the reform of planning procedures are the generalization of sustainable development and the reorganization of local government. Bringing an additional degree of complexity to planning procedures, the implementation of sustainable development appears to be strongly dependent of an effective and efficient inter-sectorial coordination between urban and transport policies. However, beyond these common evolutions, large differences appear in practice, depending on political cultures, planning traditions, and local contexts. This recent need for coordination, commonly considered a condition for success within urban sustainable development strategies, leads us to question the role of urban planning procedures and its evolution by analysing a specific case study, the cross-border agglomeration of Geneva, Switzerland, and reconstituting its “trajectory” during the last forty decades. The policy paths of the Genevan urban area have been described by considering the evolution of successive master plans, the implemented technical solutions and projects and the different means used in favour of an inter-sectorial coordination. For this analysis, factors of change or inertia in terms of have been identified by focusing on three main variables: ideas, institutions and interests. The case of Geneva illustrates how planning procedures take an integral part in the policymaking process, with these procedures elaborated simultaneously with policies. Torn between the renewal of public policy goals and the outcome of new territories, the reform of urban planning presents several contradictions. Conversely, sustainable development particularly fails to be addressed as a true political issue, limited to a definition of norms or legitimizing local policies.
What about the Travel Experience? Service Development in Public Transport Based on an Exploratory Survey on Instruments and Stakeholder Attitudes
Authors: Schiefelbusch Martin
Published: November 2023

The paper aims to make the “travel experience” accessible to transport planning in general and public transport service development in particular. This dimension of mobility has so far been neglected by transport planning, while social-science mobility studies have had an analytical rather than practical approach to it. The paper proposes criteria to disaggregate and handle the “travel experience” in public transport development and examines how current industry practices take account of this subject. Media reports were analyzed to classify planning, marketing and customer care initiatives, and 22 case studies were analyzed regarding the organization, implementation and experiences made. The paper concludes that initiatives undertaken so far are mainly considered in terms of their publicity value, rather than their contribution to service development. A wide range of concepts is used at least occasionally, but only part of the experiential needs is targeted.
Reference-Dependent Stochastic User Equilibrium with Endogenous Reference Points
Authors: Site Paolo Delle , Filippi Francesco , Castaldi Claudia
Published: November 2023

We consider the application of reference-dependent consumer choice theory to traffic assignment on transportation networks. Route choice is modelled based on random utility maximisation with systematic utility embodying loss aversion for the travel time and money expenditure attributes. Stochastic user equilibrium models found in the literature have considered exogenously given reference points. The paper proposes a model where reference points are determined consistently with the equilibrium flows and travel times. The referencedependent stochastic user equilibrium (RDSUE) is defined as the condition where (i) no user can improve her utility by unilaterally changing path, (ii) each user has as reference point the current travel time and the money expenditure of one of the available paths, and (iii) if each user updates the reference point to her current path the observed path flows do not change. These conditions are formally equivalent to a multi-class stochastic equilibrium where each class is associated with a path and has as reference point the current state on the path, and the number of users in each class equals the current flow on the path. The RDSUE is formulated as a fixed point problem in the path flows. Existence of RDSUE is guaranteed under usual assumptions. A heuristic algorithm based on the method of successive averages is proposed to solve the problem. The model is illustrated by two numerical examples, one relates to a two-link network and another to the Nguyen-Dupuit network. A reference-dependent route choice model calibrated on stated preference data is used. The second example serves also to demonstrate the algorithm. The impact on the equilibrium of different assumptions on the degree of loss aversion with respect to the travel time attribute are investigated.
On the generalized cost - demand elasticity of intermodal container transport
Authors: Jourquin Bart , Tavasszy Lóránt , Duan Liwei
Published: November 2023

Elasticities for freight transport in the context of mode choice are hardly available for markets in which intermodal container transport competes with truck only transport. These elasticities are expected to be different, however, from values found in the literature for traditional freight transport, as trucking is a complement to rail or inland waterway transport when used for pre- or post-haulage, but a substitute to these modes when used from the origin to the final destination. This paper presents direct and cross (generalized) cost elasticities for road and rail transport demand for continental intermodal container transport and constitutes an attempt to compare the elasticities for intermodal transport with those for general freight transport. We first look into the sensitivity of elasticities to the total length of the haul and to pre- and post-haulage distances by road using a stylized, theoretical model. The assumption about pre- and post-haulage distances in mode choice appears to be important, as elasticities for road transport in the context of intermodal transport chains can be half of the values currently used in a conventional mode choice situation without access or egress by road. Next we provide empirical values for the market of container transport using a European multimodal network model. The absolute values of the estimated elasticities follow a double trend when the cost for trucking is modified: they increase with the distance between the origin and the destination, but decrease with the length of pre- or post-haulage. In all cases, the values are estimated to be inelastic. Overall, the “complement” component of the computed elasticities for rail-road transport is estimated to be approximately 20% of the total impact.
Improving service quality in highway passenger transportation: a case study using quality function deployment
Authors: Pakdil Fatma , Kurtulmuşoğlu Feride Bahar
Published: November 2023

The highly competitive market conditions in the passenger transportation industry pressure service provider firms to adopt an attitude of customer-oriented service quality. Even though the service quality of passenger transportation has been a concern in the literature, how the service quality of highway passenger transportation systems could be improved using a systematic approach has not been investigated. Using Quality Function Deployment (QFD), this is the first attempt to improve the quality of highway passenger transportation services. The analysis reveals that the passengers’ most important expectations are employees’ empathetic approach toward customers, technical specifications of buses, error-free services, and competent employees. Additionally, the most important technical requirements are employee-oriented technical requirements, technical specifications of buses, and error-free services in highway passenger transportation.
The determinants of full-service carriers airfares in European hub-to-hub markets
Authors: Zhang Shengrun , Derudder Ben , Witlox Frank
Published: November 2023

This paper explores the factors influencing the pricing behaviour of full-service carriers in European hub-to-hub markets. Drawing on a 2009 dataset containing route and airfare information, we establish an econometric model to estimate the impact of route structure, alliances, and market concentration on the pricing of European full-service carriers in these markets. The results suggest that alliances on routes connecting two primary hubs, airport concentration, market share inequality and competition from low-cost carriers influence average airfares of full-service carriers in the European hub-to-hub markets.
On interurban road pricing schemes and the impacts of traffic diversion on road safety in Germany: Empirical findings and implications
Authors: Baumgarten Patrick , Middelkamp Jens
Published: November 2023

Recently, traffic diversion effects induced by tolling have increasingly been attracting attention, since interurban road charging schemes are becoming more widespread in Europe. However, less attention has been paid to unintended spillover effects concerning negative road safety outcomes, caused by traffic shifts to non-tolled adjacent secondary roads of inferior quality. This study introduces to the specifics of existing road pricing schemes in Europe, clarifies the characteristics of the German toll system and explores the relationship between toll implementation and road safety outcomes using regional German panel data for the period 2000-2010. To this end, we test different specifications using accident data, while controlling for transport-related and socioeconomic covariates. We find that the implementation of the heavy goods vehicle toll in 2005 has a negative impact on accident rates with damage to persons during our sample period. This finding is a valuable insight for policy makers, since the existence of a relationship between tolls, traffic diversion and road safety has important policy implications regarding the determination of optimal welfare-enhancing tolls.
The practice of strategic journal self-citation: It exists, and should stop (A note from the editor-in-chief)
Authors: Chorus Caspar G.
Published: November 2023

This note highlights how journal self-citation practices substantially influence impact factorbased journal rankings in the field of Transportation. Furthermore, by means of analyzing Thomson Reuters’ most recent Journal Citation Report (JCR), I show that a substantial share of these self-citations is likely to be the result of strategic behavior by editors of journals. I conclude with a call to editors to stop requesting or nudging authors to add journal self-citations to their papers; and a call to authors to stop giving in to editors when being asked to provide such citations.
Uncertainties in Transport Project Evaluation: Editorial
Authors: Bang Salling Kim , Nielsen Otto Anker
Published: November 2023

This following special issue of the European Journal of Transport Infrastructure Research (EJTIR) containing five scientific papers is the result of an open call for papers at the 1st International Conference on Uncertainties in Transport Project Evaluation that took place at the Technical University of Denmark, September 2013. The conference was held under the auspices of the project ‘Uncertainties in transport project evaluation’ (UNITE) which is a research project (2009-2014) financed by the Danish Strategic Research Agency. UNITE was coordinated by the Department of Transport of the Technical University of Denmark (DTU Transport) and carried out in cooperation with several Danish and international partners.
The Impact of External Quality Assurance of Costs Estimates on Cost Overruns: Empirical Evidence from the Norwegian Road Sector
Authors: Odeck James , Welde Morten , Volden Gro Holst
Published: November 2023

Cost overruns in transport infrastructure projects are prevalent and have been well documented in the literature; see, for instance, Flyvbjerg et al. (2003), Odeck (2004 and 2014) and Cantarelli et al. (2010). Governments may therefore exert efforts to reduce overruns by implementing strategies such as quality assurance of cost estimates, whereby external consultants are engaged to assure the accuracy of estimates. However, the literature has to a lesser extent provided evidence on what governments do to combat overruns and whether those efforts work in practice. This paper provides such evidence for the case of Norway, where the government implemented a quality assurance regime for cost estimates above 500 million NOK in the early 2000. Apart from explaining the Norwegian quality assurance regime, the paper uses statistical inferences to compare the magnitudes of cost overruns in the pre-and post- quality assurance periods. The statistically significant derived results are as follows: (i) quality assurance has led to a reduction in cost overruns; (ii) quality assurance has not, however, led to improved accuracy of the estimates provided by the authorities – rather, it has led to systematic overestimation by the authorities; and (iii) external consultants are more accurate than the authorities. We conclude that the quality assurance regime is achieving the objectives of reducing cost overruns and that similar regimes should be considered for smaller projects where overruns have been shown to be very large.
System convergence in transport models: algorithms efficiency and output uncertainty
Authors: Rich Jeppe , Nielsen Otto Anker
Published: November 2023

Transport models most often involve separate models for traffic assignment and demand. As a result, two different equilibrium mechanisms are involved, (i) the internal traffic assignment equilibrium, and (ii) the external equilibrium between the assignment model and the demand model. The objective of this paper is to analyse convergence performance for the external loop and to illustrate how an improper linkage between the converging parts can lead to substantial uncertainty in the final output. Although this loop is crucial for the performance of large-scale transport models it has not been analysed much in the literature. The paper first investigates several variants of the Method of Successive Averages (MSA) by simulation experiments on a toy-network. It is found that the simulation experiments produce support for a weighted MSA approach. The weighted MSA approach is then analysed on large-scale in the Danish National Transport Model (DNTM). It is revealed that system convergence requires that either demand or supply is without random noise but not both. In that case, if MSA is applied to the model output with random noise, it will converge effectively as the random effects are gradually dampened in the MSA process. In connection to DNTM it is shown that MSA works well when applied to travel-time averaging, whereas trip averaging is generally infected by random noise resulting from the assignment model. The latter implies that the minimum uncertainty in the final model output is dictated by the random noise in the assignment model.
Evaluation of railway traffic control efficiency and its determinants
Authors: Roets Bart , Christiaens Johan
Published: November 2023

The present paper fills a gap in the literature by examining the efficiency of railway traffic control. In spite of large-scale migration strategies towards centralised signal boxes (traffic control centres), railway traffic control still remains a labour-intensive process in many European countries. In close collaboration with experts from Infrabel, the Belgian railway infrastructure manager, we develop a two-stage benchmarking framework which assesses and explains railway traffic control efficiency. In the first stage, a bootstrapped Data Envelopment Analysis model with categorical variable assesses efficiency, and closely monitors average and individual performance trends over time. Second-stage regressions examine the impact of several factors on efficiency. The proposed framework can be adopted by infrastructure managers as an internal benchmarking tool, evaluating the entire network or specific sub-regions. We demonstrate the practical applicability of our approach with a unique and rich 18-month dataset of Infrabel’s relay-technology signal boxes. Aiming to uncover additional insights, we perform our analysis on two subsets of the monthly data: one covering the working week, the other the weekends. Our findings suggest that in order to improve on traffic control efficiency, railway infrastructure managers should aim for geographical concentration, larger team sizes, and a continuous follow-up of signal box opening times. Further efficiency gains can be generated by reducing infrastructure complexity. Finally, our results also indicate that railway infrastructure managers should take into account the differences between working week and weekend when measuring and analysing traffic control performance.
The influence of adverse weather conditions on probability of congestion on Dutch motorways
Authors: Van Stralen Wouter J.H. , Calvert Simeon C. , Molin Eric J.E.
Published: November 2023

Weather conditions are widely acknowledged to contribute to the occurrence of congestion on motorway traffic by influencing both traffic supply and traffic demand. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper that explicitly integrates supply and demand effects in predicting the influence of adverse weather conditions on the probability of occurrence of congestion. Traffic demand is examined by conducting a stated adaptation experiment, in which changes in travel choices are observed under adverse weather scenarios. Based on these choices, a Panel Mixed Logit model is estimated. Supply effects are taken into account by examining the influence of precipitation on motorway capacity. Based on the Product Limit Method, capacity distribution functions are estimated for dry weather, light rain and heavy rain. With the developed model to integrate the supply and demand effects breakdown probabilities can be calculated for any given traffic demand and capacity. The results show that rainfall leads to a significant increase in the probability of traffic breakdown at bottleneck locations. Interestingly the probability of a breakdown at these bottleneck locations is predicted to be slightly higher in light rain (98.7%) than in heavy rain (95.7%) conditions, which is the result of the higher traffic demand in light rain conditions. Based on the results presented in this paper, it can be recommended to always incorporate both supply and demand effects in the predictions of motorway breakdown probabilities due to adverse weather conditions to improve the validity of the predictions.
Estimating traffic delays and network speeds from lowfrequency GPS taxis traces for urban transport modelling
Authors: Deng Bin , Denman Steve , Zachariadis Vassilis , Jin Ying
Published: November 2023

The collection of actual traffic delays and road traffic speed data is essential in modelling urban transport resource efficiency, congestion and carbon and pollutant emissions, which is in turn part of core empirical basis for evidence-based policy making for improving urban sustainability. This data collection has also been one of the most expensive and time-consuming tasks, which restricts how well and how often the models can be built and validated, often to the extent that urban transport models have to rely on severely outdated data with sparse coverage. New smart data such as GPS vehicle traces has raised the prospect of remedying the data shortage, but for operational and data protection reasons often only low-sampling frequency traces are available. This paper proposes a novel method for estimating actual, congested link-speeds from lowsampling frequency taxi GPS traces that are publicly available. The method is based on a path inference process and is applied over a detailed road network in a large city region. It shows that low frequency GPS trajectories can significantly improve the spatial and temporal resolutions of traffic speed data for transport modelling and policy analysis. This opens up the prospect of improving road operation performance, managing travel demand and optimizing urban circulation.
Sensitivity analysis of impact model for road freight by the increase in the use of larger trucks in Spain
Authors: Pérez-Martínez Pedro J. , Miranda Regina M.
Published: November 2023

This study develops an impact model for road freight transport and aims to analyse the sensitivity of the results to the model parameters. Scenarios are simulated to study the effect of this model on road freight transport operations. The model and the methodology are applied to the sampling data from the permanent road freight survey of the Spanish Ministry of Transport. According to the results, the optimum parameter values or ranges are recommended, and the assumptions involved in the impact estimates are justified. Finally, the model is also proposed to apply and extended to a large logistic network. Estimates and projections presented in this study are based on the level of shift of goods for the larger trucks, the modal shift from the railway, and the elasticity demand for road freight transport as a result of lower transport operation costs. The results of this study show that, considering the effects of induced truck traffic and the shift of goods from rail to road, increasing the weight limits for trucks produces slight benefits.
Freeway truck travel time prediction for freight planning using truck probe GPS data
Authors: Wang Zun , Goodchild Anne V. , McCormack Edward
Published: November 2023

Predicting truck (heavy vehicle) travel time is a principal component of freight project prioritization and planning. However, most existing travel time prediction models are designed for passenger vehicles and fail to make truck specific forecasts or use truck specific data. Little is known about the impact of this limitation, or how truck travel time prediction could be improved in response to freight investments with an improved methodology. In light of this, this paper proposes a pragmatic multi-regime speed-density relationship based approach to predict freeway truck travel time using empirical truck probe GPS data (which is increasingly available in North American and Europe) and loop detector data. Traffic regimes are segmented using a cluster analysis approach. Two case studies are presented to illustrate the approach. The travel time estimates are compared with the Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) model and the Akçelik model outputs. It is found that the proposed method is able to estimate more accurate travel times than traditional methods. The predicted travel time can support freight prioritization and planning.
Vulnerability assessment framework for interdependent critical infrastructures: case-study for Great Britain’s rail network
Authors: Pant Raghav , Hall Jim W. , Blainey Simon P.
Published: November 2023

Critical infrastructures vulnerability assessment involves understanding various sociotechnological aspects of modern day infrastructures. While vulnerabilities exist at different scales, failures of large-scale installations in infrastructures are significant because they lead towards widespread social and economic disruptions. There is growing awareness of the multiple potential causes of failure, including those due to dependence upon other infrastructures. This paper establishes a framework for national analysis of vulnerability of interdependent infrastructures. We present: (i) A mathematical formulation of the vulnerability assessment; (ii) Network models for infrastructures that take in account the geographic, physical and operational characteristics of connecting nodes and edges; (iii) Interdependency mapping models that establish relationships between different subsystems within and across infrastructures; and (iv) Methods for implementing failure and disruption calculations. The methodology is demonstrated for Great Britain’s railway infrastructure, for which we have built detailed interdependency mappings between critical assets and infrastructures that support railway operations. Two key vulnerability assessment results, produced to examine failure impacts of such assets on railway passenger trip flows, include: (i) Random failure outcomes; and (ii) Flood vulnerability outcomes. The results show which critical infrastructure interdependencies potentially have large impacts on railway operations, providing a useful analysis tool for further risk and adaptation planning.
Quantifying energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions of road infrastructure projects: An LCA case study of the Oslo fjord crossing in Norway
Authors: O’Born Reyn , Brattebø Helge , Magnus Kålas Iversen Ole , Miliutenko Sofiia , Potting José
Published: November 2023

The road sector consumes large amounts of materials and energy and produces large quantities of greenhouse gas emissions, which can be reduced with correct information in the early planning stages of road project. An important aspect in the early planning stages is the choice between alternative road corridors that will determine the route distance and the subsequent need for different road infrastructure elements, such as bridges and tunnels. Together, these factors may heavily influence the life cycle environmental impacts of the road project. This paper presents a case study for two prospective road corridor alternatives for the Oslo fjord crossing in Norway and utilizes in a streamlined model based on life cycle assessment principles to quantify cumulative energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions for each route. This technique can be used to determine potential environmental impacts of road projects by overcoming several challenges in the early planning stages, such as the limited availability of detailed life cycle inventory data on the consumption of material and energy inputs, large uncertainty in the design and demand for road infrastructure elements, as well as in future traffic and future vehicle technologies. The results show the importance of assessing different life cycle activities, input materials, fuels and the critical components of such a system. For the Oslo fjord case, traffic during operation contributes about 94 % and 89 % of the annual CED and about 98 % and 92 % of the annual GHG emissions, for a tunnel and a bridge fjord crossing alternative respectively.
Timetable-based simulation method for choice set generation in large-scale public transport networks
Authors: Kjær Rasmussen Thomas , Anderson Marie Karen , Nielsen Otto Anker , Prato Carlo Giacomo
Published: November 2023

The composition and size of the choice sets are a key for the correct estimation of and prediction by route choice models. While existing literature has posed a great deal of attention towards the generation of path choice sets for private transport problems, the same does not apply to public transport problems. This study proposes a timetable-based simulation method for generating path choice sets in a multimodal public transport network. Moreover, this study illustrates the feasibility of its implementation by applying the method to reproduce 5131 real-life trips in the Greater Copenhagen Area and to assess the choice set quality in a complex multimodal transport network. Results illustrate the applicability of the algorithm and the relevance of the utility specification chosen for the reproduction of real-life path choices. Moreover, results show that the level of stochasticity used in choice set generation should be high in order to provide stable parameter estimates when the choice sets are used for estimation regardless of the initial parameters for choice set generation. Last, results illustrate that adding heterogeneity across travellers should be required because coverage increases significantly, a relevant result considering that models are becoming more disaggregate in nature in real-life applications.
Exploring the impact of household interactions on car use for home-based tours: a multilevel analysis of mode choice using data from the first two waves of the Netherlands Mobility Panel
Authors: Olde Kalter Marie-José , Geurs Karst T.
Published: November 2023

While most studies on mode choice behaviour and households are typically based on individual travel behaviour decisions, less is known about how relations inside households affect mode choice. This paper addresses this topic by examining intra- and inter-household variation in car use. The decision to use the car is modelled for home-based tours, based on data from the 2013 and 2014 waves of the Netherlands Mobility Panel. A multilevel framework is used to investigate mode choice behaviour at tour, individual and household level to account for the impact of individual and household characteristics on travel mode choice, interdependencies of individuals within their households and variation in individual travel mode choice and other characteristics over time. The results show that variability between households and individuals accounts for more than one third of the total variation in the mode choice of home-based tours. In dual-income households, intra-household interactions have a larger effect on car use than interhousehold interactions. Although only two panel waves are used, the model results show significant time effects on mode choice: if the same tour was also conducted in the previous year and one person changed working hours or work location, car use is less likely.
Editorial: Driving, cycling and flying: trends in planning and operational transportation research in Europe
Authors: Homem De Almeida Correia Gonçalo , Santos Bruno F. , Kroesen Maarten
Published: November 2023

In this special issue we present three papers selected from the 18th meeting of the EURO Working Group on Transportation (EWGT) which was held in July 2015 in Delft, the Netherlands, organized by Delft University of Technology. The selected contributions reflect the diversity of topics that were addressed in this conference, which is dedicated to mathematical modeling of transportation problems. We are happy to have a small but representative sample in which three different modes of transportation are in focus: the bicycle, the car and the airplane. The editors are very grateful for all the work that authors and referees have put in creating interesting research papers in this broad field of transportation research. This editorial first explains what the EWGT is and how the EWGT conference was organized. The three contributions are then presented and put into the perspective of the Dutch edition of the EWGT conference.