Conflicts in the Middle East and Prospects for their Resolution
Authors:   National Research Institute of World Economy and International Relations named after E. M. Primakov of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Ivanov S. M. 
Published: October 2023

The article analyzes the origins, causes, a brief history, participants, external players of regional confl icts in the Middle East, development dynamics and prospects for their resolution. The author comes to the conclusion that by now most of the Middle East protracted confl icts have been frozen, but there are sporadic outbreaks of violence and provocations, accompanied by mutual rocket and artillery strikes and shelling. Mostly, such incidents take place on Israel's borders with the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria. The Israeli Air Force is carrying out missile and bomb strikes against military facilities and pro-Iranian military groups in Lebanon and Syria. The Turkish authorities, under the pretext of fighting terrorism, carry out military punitive operations in northern Syria and Iraq, as a result, there are casualties among the Kurdish militias and civilians in the border areas. Local skirmishes and exchanges of blows between US military personnel and Iranian proxy forces in Syria and Iraq do not stop. Missile and drone attacks also target oil and gas production facilities, tankers of Saudi Arabia and other countries in the Persian and Oman Gulfs. In general, a fairly high level of terrorist threat remains in the region. The author believes that the weakening of the position of the United States and its Western allies in the Middle East, the course taken by the countries of the region to diversify their external relations through rapprochement with China, India, and Russia creates good prerequisites for the peaceful resolution of protracted confl icts. This is also facilitated by the normalization of relations between Turkey and Israel, Saudi Arabia with Iran, the establishment of relations with an increasing number of Arab countries with Israel, the return of Syria to the League of Arab States, etc. At the same time, sharp disagreements and fundamental contradictions remain between the State of Israel and the State of Palestine, in particular, over the status of Jerusalem, the occupied Palestinian territories and Israeli settlement activity. Lebanon and Syria have territorial claims to Israel. So far, the process of a Middle East settlement under the auspices of the UN and the quartet of international mediators has been frozen. And if Riyadh and Tehran were still able to overcome the confrontation and, with the mediation of China, Iraq and Oman, began to restore previously broken relations, then the confrontation with elements of a hybrid war between Iran and Israel remains and is fraught with escalation into an armed conflict. In recent years, the unresolved Kurdish problem has become more and more acute. Deprived by Western politicians of the right to establish their own state, the multi-million Kurdish people found themselves divided by the borders of four states, whose authorities are pursuing a clearly discriminatory policy towards their Kurdish minorities. On the agenda is the struggle of the Kurds for equal rights and freedoms with the so-called titular nations (Turks, Arabs, Persians), and in the future the creation of Kurdish autonomous regions or subjects of federations. The author comes to the conclusion that the growing trend towards a multipolar world order dictates the need for a peaceful resolution of regional conflicts and long-term enmity of peoples, creates objective prerequisites for establishing their mutually beneficial cooperation, regardless of national, ethnic, confessional affiliation.The time of domination in the countries of the third world of the colonial principle "divide and conquer" is coming to an end.