bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Experimental investigations on effects of pore fluid pressure on extension and extension-shear mixed-mode fracture in Berea sandstone
Authors: Kitajima Hiroko , Ruplinger Casey , Tilley Cate
Published: February 2023

Pore fluid pressure in the geological formation at depth varies spatially and temporarily. An increase in pore fluid pressure leads to a reduction in effective normal stress and thus affects the rock strength and deformation mode. Extremely high pore fluid pressure induces very low normal stress conditions, where an extension or extension-shear hybrid fractures are formed. To better quantify the stress states and fluid pressure during fracture formation, it is crucial to document mechanical strength and the transition from tensile to shear fracture at low effective stress with elevated pore fluid pressure. However, all previous experimental studies were conducted under dry conditions. Here, we investigate the effects of pore fluid pressure on tensile and hybrid fractures in Berea sandstone by conducting triaxial extension deformation experiments under pore-fluid-pressure controlled conditions at effective maximum principal stress (σ1' = σ1 - Pp, where σ1 is total maximum principal stress and Pp is pore fluid pressure) ranging from 10 to 130 MPa. Fracture strength, inelastic strain, strain at failure, fracture angle to σ1', and the amount of comminution increase with σ1'. The transition of extension to shear fracture occurs at σ1' = ~ 30 MPa, based on the fracture angle and the degree of comminution. All the saturated or pore fluid pressure-controlled test specimens exhibit lower fracture strength than dry samples, and the difference is distinct when the minimum principal stress is tensile (i.e., σ3' < 0). This implies that pore fluid pressure more effectively assists the breakage of the bonds and opening of the microcracks in the extension fracture regime. A series of triaxial extension experiments at σ1' = 20 and 50 MPa with various combinations of σ1 and Pp indicate that the fracture angle to σ1' is independent of σ1 and Pp in the extension fracture regime at σ1' = 20 MPa, and that fracture angle increases with σ1 and Pp in the extension-shear hybrid fracture regime at σ1' = 50 MPa. This implies that the estimation of in-situ stress and pore fluid pressure from natural or human-induced deformation at low effective pressure (such as joints, veins, and drilling-induced tensile fractures) requires careful consideration of the mode of fractures formed.
Socio-environmental exploration and evaluation of social impacts for direct geothermal uses in Los Baños, Veracruz, Mexico.
Authors: Olmedo Velazquez Paola Anahi , Jácome Paz Mariana Patricia , Silva López Ana Laura , Prol Ledesma Rosa María
Published: February 2023

During the geothermal prospecting and exploration stages, different interests may arise that motivate a socio-environmental conflict over the use of the resource. To prevent this, it is important to have a social management plan and consider cultural values within the exploration stages. The objective of this project is to evaluate the social impacts of the implementation of direct use in the Los Baños geothermal zone, in the intraplate volcanism province of eastern Mexico; as well as to identify the main actors of the territory and their perception of the geothermal resource. To do this, semi-structured field surveys were implemented, and the evaluation format required for larger energy projects (in Mexico) was adapted to identify local aspects of the social dimension.The main results are identification of actors with greater cultural weight and influence in local decision-making, identification of the existence of a socio-environmental conflict linked to mining in the area, identification of the type of direct geothermal use that can be implemented with greater feasibility (social and technical) in the area, a constant dialogue with the managers of the territory and the joint approach of later stages for the social acceptance of the project.AcknowledgementProject PAPIIT-UNAM IA100921 Exploración geotérmica en el Oriente de la Faja Volcánica Transmexicana. Project PAPIIT-UNAM   IA102123 Exploración avanzada en Los Baños, Veracruz para usos directos de la energía geotérmica.
Earth’s supermountains as revealed by detrital zircon from modern rivers linked to biological evolution
Authors: Zhu Ziyi , Campbell Ian
Published: February 2023

Zircon is an invaluable accessory mineral found in a wide range of crustal rocks. It can faithfully record its host rock’s composition, over long periods of geological time, leading to its wide use in studies of continental evolution. Detrital zircons collected from Earth’s modern rivers provide a representative sample that can be used to study the evolution of the continental crust on a large scale, aided by long-time sediment-sediment recycling, which results in the efficient mixing of zircons from source rocks of diverse origins.  We use the Lu contents in zircons to identify those that come from the high-pressure zones of the deep mountain roots. By applying this technique to our global data base of zircon from major rivers, we show that Nuna and Gondwana were periods when Earth’s topography was dominated by high, Himalayan-type mountains, whereas Rodinia was not. The dramatic difference between Rodinia on one hand, and the amalgamation of Nuna and Gondwana on the other, is also manifested in other geological proxies, such as peaks in the average metamorphic pressure, seawater Sr isotope and S-type granite abundance. The two periods of extensive high mountain (supermountain) formation coincide with two major changes in Earth’s evolution: (i) postulated increases in atmospheric oxygen, and (ii) major biological advances. We argue that the big evolutionary changes that occurred during these two periods were potentially driven by dramatic increases in the supply of bio-limiting nutrients into the oceans, which resulted from the rapid erosion of Earth’s two supermountains.
Comparison of correlations between radar reflectivity and radar precipitation intensity for snow depth
Authors: Kang Narae , Hwang Seokhwan , Yoon Jungsoo
Published: February 2023

In order to more quantitatively compare the differences between radar reflectivity and snowfall intensity against ground-observed snow depth, snow depth ground observation data and weather radar observation data were analyzed. For radar observation data, cumulative reflectivity and precipitation intensity derived from reflectivity, differential reflectivity, and specific differential phase (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) were compared. As a result of the analysis, it was found that the precipitation intensity was similar to the variation according to the snow depth and time compared to the radar reflectivity. However, although the initial accumulation tendency of snow fall was very well matched due to the characteristics of snow cover, which is sensitive to temperature and has accumulation and melting characteristics, the melting tendency from daytime showed a difference. Therefore, it is judged that more accurate snow depth can be estimated only when precipitation intensity estimation method according to temperature is derived and used in addition to methods such as accumulation of reflectivity. AcknowledgementThis research was supported by a grant(2022-MOIS61-003) of Development Risk Prediction Technology of Storm and Flood for Climate Change based on Artificial Intelligence funded by Ministry of Interior and Safety(MOIS, Korea). 
Scaling of the geomagnetic secular variation time scales
Authors: Tsang Yue-Kin
Published: February 2023

Recent satellite missions provide accurate measurement of the time derivative of the Gaussian coefficients from which the secular variation spectrum can be calculated. The ratio of the magnetic energy spectrum to the secular variation spectrum gives a typical scale τ for the temporal variation of the geomagnetic field as a function of the spherical harmonics degrees l. There is much interest in the scaling of τ with l: τ ~ l β. Numerical simulations and the frozen flux hypothesis suggest the simple relation τ ~ l -1 while observational studies give a diverse range of value for β. A question here is whether the frozen flux hypothesis is applicable. It is plausible that magnetic diffusion can be neglected inside the outer core. However, the situation in a boundary layer under the core-mantle boundary (CMB) is less clear. A related question is whether τ observed at the Earth's surface is relevant to what is happening in the interior of the outer core as the form of the magnetic field above the CMB is constrained by the boundary conditions at the CMB. Here we use a numerical dynamo model to investigate these questions. We extend the definition of τ to the inside of the outer core. We find that in our simulations the exponent β undergoes a sharp transition just beneath the CMB, magnetic diffusion plays a role in the scaling of τ above the CMB and the frozen flux hypothesis is not applicable here.
The role of plume-ridge decoupling on rapid plate motion and intraplate volcanism
Authors: Mather Ben , Seton Maria , Williams Simon , Whittaker Joanne , Carey Rebecca , Arnould Maëlis , Coltice Nicolas , Duncan Bob
Published: February 2023

The migration of mid-ocean ridges is driven by asymmetric plate motions on either ridge flank transmitted from far-field subduction forces. Within this model, the geometry and location of mid-ocean ridges are independent of lower-mantle dynamics. However, this fails to recognise the attraction between mid-ocean ridges and mantle plumes. Using numerical models of mantle convection, we show that plumes with high buoyancy flux (> 6000 kg/s) can capture mid-ocean ridges within a 1000 km radius and anchor them in place. If the plume buoyancy flux wanes below 1000 kg/s the ridge may be released, potentially resulting in rapid migration rates that trigger a major plate reorganisation. Plume-ridge interactions are commonly preserved as conjugate large igneous provinces (LIPs), which form on each flank of a mid-ocean ridge as new crust is created. The decoupling of ridges from plumes are demarcated by a switch from conjugate LIPs, formed by a plume beneath a spreading ridge, to trails of intraplate hotspot volcanoes signifying the plume and ridge have separated. We demonstrate that the waning buoyancy flux of the Kerguelen plume, inferred from the geochemistry of eruption products, resulted in its decoupling with the SE Indian Ridge spurring rapid northward migration of the Australian plate. Our modelling predicts that following plume-ridge decoupling, the waning plume can tilt 15° within the upper mantle towards the migrating ridge, providing an explanation for diffuse volcanism and low eruption volumes along the Kerguelen Archipelago. Our results have significant implications for other plume-ridge interactions globally such as the Iceland, Tristan, and Easter plumes, and the generation of intraplate hotspot volcanoes proximal to mid-ocean ridges.
A comparison of methane source localization methods in landfills across Canada using truck-based measurement, Lagrangian stochastic back trajectory modeling, and Landsat thermal images
Authors: Khaleghi Afshan , Bourlon Evelise , Stuart Jordan , Martino Rebecca , Vogt Judith , Coyle Lindelwa , LeVernois Mackenzie , Lavoie Martin , Perrine Gilles , Kennedy Angus , Boyd Meghan , Kennedy Sarah , Hammer Melanie , Ars Sebastein , Vogel Felix , Gilbertson Eric , Mahdianpari Masoud , Risk David
Published: February 2023

Canada is a signatory to the Global Methane Pledge and is aiming to achieve a 75% cut in methane from 2030 levels from oil and gas production through regulatory updates and a 50% cut in waste sector emissions using new regulations. Despite numerous large-scale studies that have measured and identified emission sources from Canada's oil and gas sector, there are virtually no measurements of emissions from landfills in Canada. As such, inventory values for landfill emissions are based on a combination of industry-submitted data and emission factors. Canada could design better policies and regulations if policymakers had access to actual emission rates and source types. Therefore, we designed and carried out a large-scale measurement campaign targeting minimally 125 landfills across Canada, using aircraft mass balance measurements and truck-based measurements (i.e., downwind and onsite transects) coupled with Gaussian inversions to determine emission rate. This study focuses on methodologies used to determine source locations, or methane hotspots, on the landfill surface. In Particular, source attribution methods included a Lagrangian back trajectory footprint analysis of mobile surveys, onsite mixing ratios and winds measured with the truck, as well as Landsat thermal retrievals that have been shown in prior studies to correlate with methane hotspots. Measurements were carried out between June and December 2022 using one or more measurement methodologies for a total of 143 sites. We performed truck-based measurements of mixing ratios across navigable portions of 59 landfills. All indicators showed some correlation to mixing ratios collected onsite, although Lagrangian analysis products from downwind measurements were somewhat more reliable in flagging hotspots than the satellite thermal indices. The indicators often highlighted the active disposal face, leachate impoundment ponds, or compost areas, as the active source area. This study will help contribute much-needed source information for solid waste sector regulatory design in Canada and has the potential to help improve models of landfill methane generation.
Observations of the Sub-Surface Thermal and Structural Properties of Ganymede’s Ice Shell from the Juno Microwave Radiometer
Authors: Brown Shannon , Bolton Scott , Misra Sidharth , Levin Steve , Zhang Zhimeng , Stevenson Dave , Siegler Matt , Feng Jianqing , Bonnefoy Lea
Published: February 2023

On 7 June 2021, Juno had a close flyby of Jupiter’s moon Ganymede, flying within 1000 km of the surface. During the flyby, Juno’s Microwave Radiometer (MWR) observed Ganymede obtaining several swaths across Ganymede using Juno’s spin to partially map Ganymede’s ice shell in six channels ranging from 600 MHz to 22 GHz. The radiance at these frequencies originates from successively deeper layers of the sub-surface and may reach to depths of 20km at 0.6 GHz. The MWR observations cover a latitude range from 20S to 60N and an east longitude range from -120 to 60 degrees, roughly centered on the Perrine region. The local solar time varies from around noon to mid-night over the longitude range. We present resolved brightness temperature maps and associated microwave spectra of Ganymede with a spatial resolution of up to ~140 km (approximately 1/40th of Ganymede’s diameter). The microwave brightness temperature at all MWR wavelengths is anti-correlated with the visible brightness of the terrain, but is too large to be explained by albedo variations alone, suggesting sub-surface ice properties are not uniform with location. The dark regions tend to exhibit the warmest microwave spectra and brighter regions are observed to have a lower brightness temperature (up to half the blackbody temperature).The coldest microwave feature observed by MWR is the Tros crater and the immediate surrounding region. A radiative transfer algorithm, coupled with a thermal model for the conductive layer of Ganymede’s ice shell are fit to the MWR spectra providing an estimate of the conductive shell thickness. The microwave observations are globally colder than would be expected for pure water ice alone, suggesting thin highly reflective layer, possibly silicate dust, on the surface, although other interpretations remain possible. We suggest that scattering at sub-surface interfaces (e.g. fractures) explains the depressed brightness temperatures observed in brighter terrain types. Juno performed a close fly-by of Europa in September 2022, enabling a comparison of the sub-surface properties of these two icy satellites.      
Mitigating tropospheric and ionospheric uncertainties in InSAR Time Series Analysis: the 5.8Mw Earthquake in the Eastern Cordillera (Central Andes), Northwestern Argentina
Authors: Viotto Sofia , Bookhagen Bodo , Torrusio Sandra , Toyos Guillermo
Published: February 2023

Detecting, characterizing and monitoring ground deformation are relevant tasks for natural risk assessments. The Synthetic Aperture Radar-SAR Interferometry (InSAR) technique stands out as a widely applied method to survey ground movements due its ability to resolve small-magnitude displacements. However, uncertainties associated with atmospheric delays prevent the detection of very small deformation signals that may be overprinted by noise. Common corrections applied either to single interferograms or time series analysis do not completely mitigate the influence of delayed signals, but they allow to distinguish between causes of delay , i.e. tropospheric or ionospheric.In this study, we explore options to minimize the impact of any delay signal in time series analysis by using subsets of available SAR scenes. We analyzed 5 years, from 2018 to 2022, of Sentinel 1 A/B data in ascending (Track 76) and descending (Track 10) orbits. The scenes cover the Eastern Cordillera in the Northwestern Argentina, the easternmost range of the Central Andes. For each date, atmospheric delays are estimated using modern processing techniques: (i) tropospheric delays are investigated from global atmospheric models and, (ii) ionospheric delays are estimated from Split Range-Spectrum technique. Then we carefully remove noisy scenes and perform InSAR time series analysis. We evaluate our method by comparing displacements from the 5.8Mw earthquake that occurred on 29-Nov-2020 with an epicenter near Quebrada de Humahuaca. The analysis is expanded to the time-motion history retrieved from landslides in this area, which also serves to study the relationship between displacements rates and the earthquake. Finally, we explore how the quality of InSAR pairs precipitates into coherence, errors of phase unwrapping, and estimation of topographic residuals. Our results suggest that image quality assessment and subsequent SAR-scene removal is an effective tool for improving the quality of the time series.
Detecting Anisotropy from Back-Azimuth Amplitude Dependence of Sp Converted Waves
Authors: Park Jeffrey , Chen Xiaoran , Levin Vadim
Published: February 2023

Many researchers have used S-to-P (Sp) converted waves to detect the Moho discontinuity, the lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) and mid-lithospheric discontinuities (MLD). The anisotropy of Earth’s lithosphere is typically constrained with shear-wave birefringence.  Both theory and reflectivity computations, however, argue for a substantial influence of anisotropy on the initial amplitude of the Sp converted wave.  The effects of compressional anisotropy on initial Sp amplitudes are stronger than the effects of shear anisotropy for anisotropy with a tilted axis of symmetry, a geometry that is often neglected in birefringence interpretations.  This Sp behavior is not typically studied, but it has the potential to test the hypothesis that the seismic lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) is caused by a transition in anisotropic layering at the base of Earth’s tectonic plates.We develop and apply multiple-taper correlation estimates for Sp receiver functions, applicable to either SV or SH incoming polarization, or for a linear combination of SV and SH. In the context of incoming SV-polarized body waves, e.g., SKS phases, algorithms from multiple-taper Ps RFs can be borrowed to apply moveout corrections before the Fourier transform to target a particular interface depth in the crust or mantle.  With synthetic seismograms, we find that SH “receiver functions” can be computed from incoming SV waves, promising a diagnostic detecting SKS birefringence and to estimate an average splitting signal from a station. The SV and SH waveforms can be “unsplit” in the frequency domain by the estimated average birefringence to reconstruct the S waves that impinge the lithosphere from the deep mantle.  We will report analyses with data from permanent stations of the Global Seismographic Network and the USGS ANSS.
Longitudinal Structures of Zonal Wind in the Thermosphere by the ICON/MIGHTI and the Main Wave Sources
Authors: Li Dan , Gao Hong , Xu Jiyao , Zhu Yajun , Xu Qiuyu , Liu Yangkun , Liu Hongshan
Published: February 2023

In this study, the neutral wind observations from the Michelson Interferometer for Global High-resolution Thermospheric Imaging (MIGHTI) instrument onboard Ionospheric CONnections (ICON) are used to investigate the longitudinal structure of zonal wind between 100 and 300 km during daytime. The four-peaked structure is prominent in June and August, and transforms to the three-peaked structure with altitude in October. The longitudinal wavenumber 1-4 patterns (WN1-WN4) are extracted, then the altitude-month distributions of WN1-WN4 and their contributions to the longitudinal structure are compared. The amplitudes of WN3 and WN4 show seasonal dependence, and the amplitude of WN4 exhibits obvious vertical propagation from the mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) to the upper thermosphere in summer and autumn. WN1 is an important contributor to the longitudinal structure, WN4 is the primary contributor in the lower altitude ranges in summer and autumn at three latitudes. The contributions of WN3 (WN1) increase holistically with latitude in summer (spring, autumn, and winter). And the main wave sources of WN1-WN4 are matched further in different seasons in the 100-106 km and 210-300 km altitude regions. The main wave sources of WN1 and WN2 have complex variations with altitude, latitude, and season, while WN3 (WN4) is clearly influenced by DE2 (DE3 and SE2).
Combined impacts of climate and land-use change on future water resources in Africa
Authors: Chawanda Celray James , Nkwasa Albert , Thiery Wim , van Griensven Ann
Published: February 2023

Africa depends on its water resources for hydroelectricity, inland fisheries, and water supply for domestic, industrial, and agricultural operations. Anthropogenic climate change (CC) has changed the state of these water resources. Land use and land cover has also undergone significant changes due to the need to provide resources to a growing population. Yet, the impact of the Land Use and Land Cover Change (LULCC) in addition to CC on the water resources of Africa is underexplored. Here we investigate how precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), and river-flow respond to both CC and LULCC scenarios across the entire African continent. We set up a SWAT+ model for Africa and calibrated it using the Hydrological Mass Balance calibration (HMBC) methodology detailed in Chawanda et. al., (2020). The model was subsequently driven by an ensemble of bias-adjusted global climate models to simulate the hydrological cycle under a range of CC and LULCC scenarios. The results indicate that the Zambezi and the Congo River basins are likely to experience reduced river flows under CC by up to 7% decrease, while the Limpopo will likely have higher river flows. The Niger River basin is likely to experience the largest decrease in river flows in all of Africa due to CC. The Congo River basin has the largest difference in river flows between scenarios with (over 18%% increase) and without LULCC (over 20% decrease). The projected changes have implications on agriculture and energy sectors and hence the livelihood of people on the continent. Our results highlight the need to adopt policies to halt global greenhouse gas emissions and to combat the current trend of deforestation to avoid the high combined impact of CC and LULCC on water resources in Africa.
Extratropical storm track activity change in future climate change scenarios
Authors: Byun Ui-Yong , Chang Eun-Chul , Kim Joowan , Cha Donghyun , Ahn Joong-Bae , Min Seung-Ki
Published: February 2023

In the mid-latitudes, synoptic-scale phenomena like high and low-pressure systems generate the variability of the regional-scale weather system. To identify the weather variability of extra-tropical region storm track activity has been analyzed based on observations since the mid-nineteenth century. After early-stage research that directly counted the movement of cyclones, the time filtering method based on grid analysis has been used for an isolated disturbance with periods of 2~7 days. This bandpass filtering method has the advantage of being able to examine the distribution and the variability of the storm track spatially in vertical and horizontal space.In this study, we confirm the storm track activity in the East Asia region using the dynamical down-scale results from CORDEX (COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment) East Asia projects. We verify the reproducibility and confirm the temporal change in the storm track activity from various RCM data. In addition to the historical period, we examine the difference in storm track intensity over future climate change scenarios. Through this, we also discuss the role of added value from RCM. This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program under Grant KMI2022-01210.
Scenario discovery with an integrated assessment model to identify robust, policy-relevant scenarios for capacity expansion in Latin America
Authors: Wessel Jacob , Lamontagne Jonathan , Iyer Gokul , Wild Thomas
Published: February 2023

The ongoing global transition to a deeply decarbonized electricity system represents a complex problem. Deep uncertainty in the future pathways of power system capacity expansion and interactions across sectors has led stakeholders to seek out robust methods capable of informing multi-scale, multi-sector tradeoffs among policy pathways within the energy-water-food nexus. In this study, scenario discovery is applied to a large scenario ensemble generated using a global-scale integrated assessment model with a regional focus on Latin America. Scenario discovery is a powerful method for identifying robust, policy-relevant scenarios from large, many-dimensional ensembles of model realizations. Here, ten uncertain sensitivity factors consistent with previous analyses are varied within the model configuration, representing technological costs and efficiencies, advanced electrification, institutional factors, and national climate pledges, among others. The resulting scenario ensemble maps out the impacts of a combinatorial time-evolving uncertainty space defined by these sensitivity factors, using generation mix, electricity cost, energy burden, and energy intensity as power system performance metrics. Additional metrics are utilized to explore cross-sectoral implications of scenarios. The scenario discovery analysis identifies the key global drivers of regional outcomes in Latin America, as well as tradeoffs and synergies regarding climate change mitigation and the future evolution of the Latin American electric power system. Our results underscore the importance of considering coupled systems and the advantages of large-scale scenario ensembles in capacity expansion analyses.
A hydrological and socioeconomic risk assessment of tropical cyclone disasters by leveraging space-based Earth observations
Authors: Pavur Gigi , Lakshmi Venkataraman , Lambert James H
Published: February 2023

On September 28, 2022, Hurricane Ian made landfall in Florida as the 5th strongest tropical cyclone on record for the United States of America. Preliminary damage assessments conducted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) estimated over $50 billion USD in insured and uninsured losses from the event. The extensive environmental and socioeconomic consequences of recent hydrometeorological extremes in Florida indicate an urgent need to improve understanding of hydrological and socioeconomic vulnerability in the region to inform future investments to increase resilience to events like Hurricane Ian. This study conducts an interdisciplinary risk analysis of both hydrological and socioeconomic variables before and after Hurricane Ian to improve understanding of the region’s hydrological and socioeconomic vulnerability to hydrometeorological extremes. A variety of publicly available satellite-based remote sensing data are leveraged for the hydrological analysis, specifically precipitation data from the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG), soil moisture data from Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), synthetic aperture radar data from Sentinel-1, optical imagery from Landsat 8, and Global Navigation Satellite System Reflectometry (GNSS-R) data from the Cyclone Global Navigation Satellite System (CYGNSS) are utilized. Additionally, high-resolution commercial satellite data from Planet, Maxar, and Capella are used to further identify infrastructure damages from Hurricane Ian. To support the socioeconomic risk analysis, publicly available demographic and economic data are used from the U.S. Census Bureau and State of Florida. Results from this work can be used to improve understanding of hydrological and socioeconomic risk in Florida due to hydrometeorological extremes. Additionally, this work can be used to inform priorities and strategy aimed to decrease risk and increase resilience in this region towards major tropical cyclones. 
Dynamic distribution modeling of arboviral vesicular stomatitis and its vector, the biting midge (Culicoides spp.): two case studies
Authors: Veron Melanie
Published: February 2023

Vesicular stomatitis (VS) is a multi-vector arboviral disease that affects livestock and has a significant impact on agriculture in both the US and Mexico. Biting midges (Culicoides species) are known vectors of VS. Presence-only species distribution models (SDMs) provide a powerful and versatile tool for estimating both the habitat suitability of biting midges and the distribution of VS, the disease they spread. Such models can improve our understanding of Culicoides ecology, provide opportunities for more efficient VS surveillance and mitigation, and help determine geographical areas where VS is endemic or vulnerable to potential future transmission.Here, we discuss two case studies related to modeling the distribution of VS and its insect vector. The first focused on predicting the habitat suitability of biting midges, including C. sonorensis and its close relatives (C. variipennis, C. albertensis, and C. occidentalis), based on species presence records collected in the past hundred years from various sources. The second study involved directly estimating the distribution of VS in Mexico, where we used occurrence data in the form of confirmed VS cases in livestock from 2005-2020 in historically endemic regions of Mexico.SDMs are typically generated using temporally static input data. However, we improved the accuracy of our predictions by applying the Maxent algorithm to time-specific input data, creating dynamic species distribution models and habitat suitability maps. For both case studies, a robust dynamic Maxent distribution modeling workflow was implemented using temporally matched occurrence and environmental data that were carefully selected in collaboration with domain experts.
Analysis of Private Sector Interest in Blue Green Infrastructure by the Motivation and Abilities (MOTA) framework: A case study in Ho Chi Minh City
Authors: Nguyen Hong Quan , Tift Kayla , Veerbeek William , Nguyen Thu Thuy , Nguyen Bao Thanh
Published: February 2023

Blue-Green Infrastructure is an emerging approach to storm water management in Ho Chi Minh City, helping to mitigate negative effects of excess storm water while providing multiple benefits. While several top-down initiatives for better storm water management practices have been proposed, many initiatives fail to implement or do not perform as expected. There is also a lack of private sector participation in storm water management, where policy and clear regulation are lacking.This paper identifies the primary factors contributing to private sector participation in Blue-Green Infrastructure projects in Ho Chi Minh City and validates them through a survey of construction specialists, local authority, and residents. A Motivation and Abilities (MOTA) framework analysis reveals primary risk factors being a lack of perceived economic and financial benefits, as well as maintenance concerns. The primary motivational factors are improved public relations, improved selling value, and increased Floor-Area Ratio. Final remarks include incentive recommendations, addressing corruption, and improved education for private developers and local officials.
Evaluation of a global precipitation product in the hydrological modeling of a river in the Amazon basin.
Authors: de Campos André Luiz , da Silveira Reinaldo Bomfim , Gonçalves José Eduardo , da Silva Nathalli Rogiski , Rangel Leandro Ávila , Freitas Camila , Paranhos Cassia Silmara Aver , Fan Fernando Mainardi
Published: February 2023

In rainfall-runoff modeling, the main input variable is precipitation, and the understanding of its temporal and spatial variation is the key for good hydrological simulation results. Conventionally, the precipitated volumes are measured by rain gauges, which are representative of its surroundings and, consequently, it is necessary to apply extrapolation techniques to obtain data in ungauged regions. However, classical techniques are based on mathematical interpolation and do not consider the physical evidence for the occurrence of precipitation. Remote sensing represents a valuable alternative to hydrological modeling due to its wide coverage, and from observations by meteorological satellites and radars, quantitative precipitation estimation is possible. In this sense, the integrated use of data from rain gauges and remote sensing has the potential to improve the accuracy of hydrological simulations. This study aims to evaluate the performance of a hydrological model in the Colider River basin (Brazil), when calibrated with a global product that provides precipitation data based on rain gauges observations, satellite and weather radar. The model used was the MGB-IPH and the data source of precipitation was MSWEP (Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation). Two different calibrations were performed: the first, considering only the precipitation data from rain gauges; the second, considering the precipitation estimated by the product. The comparison between the rain datasets indicates that MSWEP tends to overestimate the precipitation in most cases, except during periods of considerable drought, when it underestimates. Nevertheless, the results in the hydrological simulation were satisfactory, with the model calibrated with MSWEP presenting equivalente or slightly better performance metrics than the one with conventional data. This is an indication that the continuous development of remote sensing products can be the key to increase the reliability of tools that comprise hydrological modeling, such as forecasting hydrological events, climatic hazards and also commercialization of electric energy.Acknowledgments: This work presents part of the results obtained during the project granted by the Brazilian National Electricity Regulatory Agency (ANEEL) under its Research and Development Project PD 6491-0503/2018 – “Previsão Hidroclimática com Abrangência no Sistema Interligado Nacional de Energia Elétrica” developed by the Paraná State electric company (COPEL GeT), the Meteorological System of Paraná (SIMEPAR) and the RHAMA Consulting company.
Profiling of Shallow Marine Fog using a UAV and Remote Sensing Observations over the Sable Island during FATIMA
Authors: Gultepe Ismail , Fernando Joe H. , Pardyjak Eric , Wang Qing , Hoch Sebastian , Perelet Alexei , Jesus Ruiz-Plancarte , Dorman Clive
Published: February 2023

The objective of this study is to investigate the vertical profiles of shallow fog events that occurred during the FATIMA (Fog and turbulence in the marine atmosphere) field campaign. The project took place over Sable Island and the surrounding ocean during July 2022. The profiles of meteorological and physical parameters were collected by instruments on 1) an Aeryon UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle), 2) a TBS (Tethered Balloon System), 3) a MWR (microwave radiometer), 4) meteorological towers, and 5) radiosonde balloons released approximately every 3 hrs. Atmospheric profiles of temperature (T), relative humidity with respect to water (RHw), horizontal wind speed (Uh), as well as particle counts from the OPC-N3 (23 bins from 0.3 μm to 40 μm) when RHw~100%, and the fog vertical microphysics structure using in-situ observations are evaluated. Various parameters such as liquid water content (LWC), droplet number concentration (Nd), mean volume diameter (MVD), and aerosol number concentration (Na) are analyzed to elicit issues related to measurements. Based on the profiles of visibility (Vis), droplet size spectra, and meteorological parameters such as RHw, T, and Uh from the UAV and turbulence towers, we will be able to investigate the vertical variability for several shallow marine fog events.In this presentation, issues related to atmospheric boundary layer profiling and vertical mixing processes will be investigated using in-situ observations from the profiling platforms, as well as a well instrumented UAV. Results will be discussed by emphasizing the future sensor developments and investigating the microphysical parameterizations.This work was funded by the Grant N00014-21-1-2296 (Fatima Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative) of the Office of Naval Research, administered by the Marine Meteorology and Space Program.
On the 2021 Volcanic Paroxysmal Activity of Mount Etna: a Ground Deformation Analysis Using InSAR
Authors: Vásquez Castillo Alejandra , Guglielmino Francesco , Puglisi Giuseppe
Published: February 2023

Measuring how the surface deforms in time and space plays a crucial role, not only for understanding volcanic mechanisms, but also for hazard assessment, risk mitigation and supporting crisis management. Mount Etna, one of the most active volcanoes in the world, with a growing population in its vicinity, has experienced an intense period of activity in recent years, mainly characterized by continuous degassing and recurring lava fountains. Due to this activity, continuous deformation can be observed at Mount Etna.The summit craters showed brisk activity in the last months of 2020, accompanied by increasing seismicity. A period of paroxysms started in December 2020 and intensified in February 2021, with brief but violent eruptive lava-fountaining episodes, that continued throughout all the year. The focus of this study is to understand the dynamics of the near-surface feeding system by constraining the sources responsible for the observed paroxysms. To localize and describe the time-dependent ground deformation, we examine surface deformation at Mount Etna by means of an Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar time series analysis utilizing Sentinel-1 data between the second half of 2020 and the end of 2021. The onset of the paroxysms was preceded by an inflation period and deflation episodes were observed during the paroxysms period, which suggests a link between the volcano activity and the observed deformation. The findings may contribute to the discussion on the distribution and dynamics of magma reservoirs that form Mount Etna's conduit system and its interaction with the local tectonic regime.
8+ Months of Tropical Cyclone and Convective Storm Observations with the NASA TROPICS Pathfinder Satellite
Authors: Blackwell William
Published: February 2023

The NASA TROPICS Earth Venture (EVI-3) CubeSat constellation mission will provide nearly all-weather observations of 3-D temperature and humidity, as well as cloud ice and precipitation horizontal structure, at high temporal resolution to conduct high-value science investigations of tropical cyclones. TROPICS will provide rapid-refresh microwave measurements (median refresh rate of approximately 60 minutes for the baseline mission) over the tropics that can be used to observe the thermodynamics of the troposphere and precipitation structure for storm systems at the mesoscale and synoptic scale over the entire storm lifecycle. The TROPICS constellation mission comprises four 3U CubeSats (5.4 kg each) in two low-Earth orbital planes. Each CubeSat comprises a Blue Canyon Technologies bus and a high-performance radiometer payload to provide temperature profiles using seven channels near the 118.75 GHz oxygen absorption line, water vapor profiles using three channels near the 183 GHz water vapor absorption line, imagery in a single channel near 90 GHz for precipitation measurements (when combined with higher resolution water vapor channels), and a single channel at 205 GHz that is more sensitive to precipitation-sized ice particles. TROPICS spatial resolution, measurement sensitivity, and calibration accuracy and stability are all comparable with current state-of-the-art observing platforms. Two launches for the TROPICS constellation mission are planned for the Summer of 2023. Data will be downlinked to the ground via the KSAT-Lite ground network. NASA's Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) Program Office approved the separate TROPICS Pathfinder mission, which launched on June 30, 2021, in advance of the TROPICS constellation mission as a technology demonstration and risk reduction effort. The TROPICS Pathfinder mission continues to yield excellent data over 18+ months of operation and has provided an opportunity to checkout and optimize all mission elements prior to the primary constellation mission. This presentation will describe the on-orbit results for the successful TROPICS Pathfinder precursor mission and will describe the recent development progress for the TROPICS constellation mission and discuss recent activities to improve the data latency and generation of near-real-time products for forecasting applications.
Modeling infiltration into water repellent soil
Authors: Berli Markus , Shillito Rose
Published: February 2023

Infiltration is an important hydrological process impacting ecology, forestry, agronomy, civil- and environmental engineering. Most infiltration models assume soils to be “wettable”, i.e., water in the soil forming an effective contact angle with the soil matrix that is close to zero. For a range of applications, e.g., infiltration into organic-rich soils or soils that turned water repellent due to fire, the “wettability assumption” no longer holds. Hence, the need for an infiltration model that can take soil water repellency into account. This study proposes a process-based approach for modeling infiltration into water repellent soil using the concepts of effective contact angle and sorptivity. The approach was developed using the Green-Ampt infiltration model but can be easily adapted for other process-based infiltration models such as Philip or Smith-Parlange. The infiltration model demonstrates the considerable impact of soil water repellency on infiltration, also for subcritically-water repellent soils, i.e., soils with effective contact angles <90°. It illustrates the non-linear relationship between infiltration rate and effective contact angle with effective contact angles >70° having a much larger impact on infiltration rate than effective contact angles <70°. The model also indicates that due to gravity, infiltration could occur into super-critically water repellent soil (i.e., soil with effective contact angles ≥90°), even with zero hydraulic head at the soil surface. Infiltration at zero hydraulic head, however, likely ceases at effective contact angles between 91° and 101°, depending on the amount of cumulative infiltration. All infiltration simulations showed decreasing infiltration rates with increasing soil water repellency expressed as effective contact angle or sorptivity at any level of cumulative infiltration. Finally, the water repellency effects on infiltration rates for short-duration, high intensity storms—a critical situation commonly associated with wildfire and flooding—were illustrated.
Index construction: a pipeline approach for transparency and diagnostics
Authors: Zhang H. Sherry , Cook Dianne , Menendez Patricia , Laa Ursula , Langrene Nicolas
Published: February 2023

Indexes are commonly used to combine multivariate information into a single number for monitoring, communicating, and decision-making. They are applied in many areas including the environment (e.g. drought index, Southern Oscillation Index), and the economy (e.g. Consumer Price Index, FTSE). Developers, analysts, and policymakers tend to have their favorite indexes, but there is little transparency about their performance. Indexes are used like black boxes---raw data is entered and a single number is returned---with scarce attention paid to diagnostics. Interestingly, though, all indexes can be constructed using a data pipeline in a series of well-defined steps, regardless of their origin. This talk will explain this, and how you can use this structure to inspect the behavior of indexes in different scenarios. Our work coordinates the vast array of index research and development into a simple set of building blocks. This modular data pipeline is implemented in an R package, which contains some standard indexes, and allows others to be easily coded. We will illustrate the benefits of this framework using the drought index, and show how different versions, created by different parameter choices, can lead to potentially varied decisions. 
From Quantum Mechanics to Climate Change: Global Warming From First Principles
Authors: Wordsworth Robin , Seeley Jacob , Shine Keith
Published: February 2023

Although the scientific principles of anthropogenic climate change are now extremely well-established, all existing descriptions of the physics of global warming are either partly empirical or rely on the results of complex numerical models. Here, we present a description of radiative forcing and climate sensitivity that begins from the basic quantum properties of the CO2 molecule. The shape of the CO2 15 micron band, which is so critical to the strength of CO2 radiative forcing, can be understood in terms of vibrational-rotational states and a quantum resonance effect (Fermi resonance). We discuss how classical analogy to the coupled pendulum experiment can be used to understand the nature of this phenomenon in simple terms. We finish by deriving a new analytic equation for CO2 radiative forcing expressed in terms of basic molecular properties such as bond strength and atomic mass. Our aim is for this analysis to elucidate the fundamental physics of climate change for both climate scientists and for physicists working in other fields.