bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Pacific Islanders
Authors: Macpherson Cluny
Published: March 2003

This paper examines some of the socio‐demographic changes which have occurred in the Pacific‐descent population in New Zealand in the last decade. It examines significant shifts which have occurred in the social and economic characteristics of overseas and locally‐born sub‐populations and identifies some of the factors which have produced these. The chapter points to the growing internal socio‐demographic diversity within the Pacific population and argues that we may need to think about this population in different ways in the near future.
Employment
Authors: Morrison Philip S.
Published: March 2003

The 1990s began with unprecedented market conditions for labour: unemployment rates were reaching their highest level in over 50 years, participation in the labour market had fallen to historically low levels and net emigration was widespread across all occupations. It seemed that things could only get better. While some did benefit from the limited growth that took place in the nineties, many did not. The greater inequality generated during the 1980s was fanned by the deregulation of the labour market and remained undiminished throughout the following decade. The marked reduction in manufacturing employment in the 1980s continued into the early 1990s negatively impacting Maori and Pacific Island men and women in particular. Increasingly post‐secondary school education became necessary to gain entry into regular work and those with little formal education and few work skills fell further down the queue. These changes are closely allied to the processes of globalisation which is already exercising considerable influence on the employment opportunities of New Zealanders.
Of miracles and crises: (re–)interpretations of growth and decline in East and Southeast Asia
Authors: Rigg Jonathan
Published: March 2003

In the last two decades of the 20th century Asia stumbled from miracle into crisis. The crisis not only had manifold social consequences but also demands a reconsideration of the multiple explanations offered for Asia’s miracle years. This paper examines these explanations in the light of the crisis and briefly discusses the ways in which scholars of different orientations have adapted and refined their views. In particular the paper looks back on the influential East Asian miracle report of the World Bank, how it was interpreted at the time of publication, and how the report did (or did not) reflect the dominant Washington consensus. The paper then offers a discussion of the post–Washington consensus concluding that the crisis has seen some convergence of the revisionist developmental state and neoliberal positions. However, this convergence should not be seen as a paradigm shift but rather as a reworking of existing positions in the light of debates that predated the economic crisis.
Trade Diversion Effects of the New EU Arrangements on ASEAN
Authors: Cuyvers Ludo
Published: March 2003

paper identifies the product groups of the ASEAN exports to Europe that will experience trade diversion effects from the enlargement of the EU (EU 12) with Austria, Finland and Sweden (EFTA 3) and the European association agreements with the Eastern European countries (EACs) using the methodology of Kreinin and Plummer. This methodology establishes for each sufficiently important ASEAN export product group to the EU 12, the EFTA 3 or the EACs whether or not competition is felt from one of the three groups of European countries, after which the tariff and non‐tariff preferences towards European products and against the ASEAN exports are analysed.

The share of the exports in ASEAN's external trade with the EU 12, the EFTA 3 and the EACs that is affected by the trade diversion of these recent European integration initiatives, is calculated. It appears that the ASEAN exports to the EU 12 are affected by the accession of the EFTA3 only to a limited extent, but that the trade diversion effect on the EU 12 and the EFTA 3 markets to be expepected from the European association agreements with the EACs is considerable.
An Empirical Analysis of the Stochastic Behaviour of Short‐Term Interest Rates in Singapore
Authors: Tse Y.K.
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the stochastic behaviour of short‐term interest rates in Singapore. We consider the following models of interest‐rate structure: the lognormal model, the stable Paretian model and the mean‐reversion model. Data on the three‐month interbank rates are analysed. The mean‐reversion model with conditional heteroscedasticity appears to fit the data adequately.
The Political Economy of Exchange Rate Regimes: Evidence from Hong Kong and Taiwan
Authors: Lin Kenneth S. , Lee Hsiu‐Yun
Published: March 2003

This paper investigates whether the macroeconomic performance of a small‐ open economy depends on the choice of exchange rate regimes. Hong Kong and Taiwan ‐ two economies with many similar macroeconomic characteristics, but different in their choices of exchange rate regimes ‐ provide a good setting to study the relation between the choice of exchange rate regime and macro‐economic performance. We examine the basic facts of growth and inflation and the coefficients’ stability of their vector autoregression (VAR), as well as cyclical characters of other aggregate variables in Hong Kong and Taiwan. Our empiric finding indicates that macroeconomic performance is not systematically related to exchange rate regimes.
Intradaily Patterns in the Korean Index Futures Market
Authors: Copeland Laurence , Jones Sally‐Anne
Published: March 2003

This paper extends the research on intraday patterns in stock and futures exchanges into the Korean market. Similar patterns to those found previously in the heavily investigated Western markets are observed, despite the differing microstructures, institutional framework and time zones between East and West. In addition, we investigate the effect of the Asian financial crisis on intraday variables. In the Korean market, both volume and volatility were found to be consistently higher at the start of the trading day during the crisis, presumably due to a rapid reaction to overnight news.
Is Price in Hong Kong That Flexible? Evidence from the Export Sector
Authors: Yip Paul S. L. , Wang R. F.
Published: March 2003

Using the Johansen procedure, this paper estimates and compares the adjustment speeds of Hong Kong’s export volume and export price. Result of this will have profound implications on the debate of the appropriateness of Hong Kong’s current exchange‐rate system.

Two cointegrating vectors were found in our system, with one postulating the export volume equation and another postulating the export price equation. It was found that export volume will adjust relatively fast to shocks in the export volume equation, and that export price will adjust relatively slow to shocks in the export volume equation. On the other hand, export volume will be insensitive, and export price will adjust at moderate speed, to disequilibrium in the export price equation. Based on the estimated model, we also conducted simulation exercises to highlight the impacts of the appreciation of the US Dollar and the reduction in world demand on Hong Kong’s export volume during the crisis and post‐crisis periods.
The Chinese State Enterprise Sector: Labour Market Reform and the Impact on Male–Female Wage Structure
Authors: Kidd Michael P. , Meng Xin
Published: March 2003

The paper examines the wage structure in the Chinese state enterprise sector between 1981 and 1987. This period is of particular interest given the introduction of major labour market reforms in China during the early 1980s. In essence the reforms represented a movement away from administratively determined prices towards a market–oriented system combined with a relatively flexible system of labour allocation. The Juhn, Murphy and Pierce (1991) decomposition is employed to shed light on the role of changing labour market institutions over the period.

JEL classification: J31; J16
Human Resource Development in the Asia–Pacific
Authors: Low Linda
Published: March 2003

The literature on education, training and other aspects of human resource development in the Asia–Pacific region is still under‐developed. Many country studies are emerging, together with regional programs initiated under ASEAN, APEC and PECC auspices. Many East Asian countries have proved that a human resource development‐led strategy promotes economic growth and development. Upgrading of education and skills relevant to R&D and international competitiveness in technology‐intensive manufacturing and services are evident in some newly‐industrialising economies in the region. But more efforts are needed.
On Estimating the Reduced Second Moment Measure of a Stationary Spatial Point Process
Authors: Chetwynd A.G. , Diggle P.J.
Published: March 2003

A method is proposed for estimating the covariance structure of a nonparametric estimator for the reduced second moment measure, K(s), of a homogeneous planar Poisson process. The method relies on the invariance of the reduced second moment measure to random thinning, and the known covariance structure of the estimator under random sampling from a fixed set of points. The possible extension of the method to stationary Cox processes is discussed.
Theory & Methods: A Nonparametric Test for the Parallelism of Two First‐Order Autoregressive Processes
Authors: Guo Jiin‐Huarng
Published: March 2003

A nonparametric testing procedure for the parallelism of two first‐order autoregressive processes is presented. This paper discuss the Mann–Whitney statistic, its natural competitor two‐sample t‐test, and the bootstrap method. It studies the asymptotic efficacies of the studentized Mann–Whitney statistic and the t‐test statistic with their relative efficiency. Simulation results for comparing the powers of these test statistics are also presented.
Theory & Methods: Explicit Distributional Results In Pattern Formation II
Authors: Stefanov V.T. , Pakes A.G.
Published: March 2003

The paper derives the joint generating function of a collection of pattern statistics associated with binary sequences. The models discussed cover independent and some dependent Bernoulli trials, including Markov dependent ones. The results cover, in particular, the moment generating function of the random search time for certain general binary patterns in the popular Knuth‐Morris‐Pratt algorithm and hence shed more light into its performance.
Theory & Methods: Fitting Roc Curves Using Non‐linear Binomial Regression
Authors: Lloyd Chris J.
Published: March 2003

The performance of a diagnostic test is summarized by its receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Empirical data on a test's performance often come in the form of observed true positive and false positive relative frequencies, under varying conditions. This paper describes a family of models for analysing such data. The underlying ROC curves are specified by a shift parameter, a shape parameter and a link function. Both the position along the ROC curve and the shift parameter are modelled linearly. The shape parameter enters the model non‐linearly but in a very simple manner. One simple application is to the meta‐analysis of independent studies of the same diagnostic test, illustrated on some data of Moses, Shapiro & Littenberg (1993). A second application to so‐called vigilance data is given, where ROC curves differ across subjects, and modelling of the position along the ROC curve is of primary interest.
Letters: Rejoinder to ‘Ahmed, M.S. (1998). A note on regression‐type estimators using multiple auxiliary information.’
Authors: Mukerjee Rahul , Rao T.J. , Vijayan K.
Published: March 2003

In the estimators t3 , t4 , t5 of Mukerjee, Rao & Vijayan (1987), byx and byz are partial regression coefficients of y on x and z, respectively, based on the smaller sample. With the above interpretation of byx and byz in t3 , t4 , t5 , all the calculations in Mukerjee at al.(1987) are correct. In this connection, we also wish to make it explicit that bxz in t5 is an ordinary and not a partial regression coefficient. The ‘corrected’ MSEs of t3 , t4 , t5 , as given in Ahmed (1998 Section 3) are computed assuming that our byx and byz are ordinary and not partial regression coefficients. Indeed, we had no intention of giving estimators using the corresponding ordinary regression coefficients which would lead to estimators inferior to those given by Kiregyera (1984). We accept responsibility for any notational confusion created by us and express regret to readers who have been confused by our notation. Finally, in consideration of the above, it may be noted that Tripathi & Ahmed’s (1995) estimator t0 , quoted also in Ahmed (1998), is no better than t5 of Mukerjee at al.(1987).
Analysis of Circular Longitudinal Data Based on Generalized Estimating Equations
Authors: Artes Rinaldo , Paula Gilberto A. , Ranvaud Ronald
Published: March 2003

This paper derives estimating equations for modelling circular data with longitudinal structure for a family of circular distributions with two parameters. Estimating equations for modelling the circular mean and the resultant length are given separately. Estimating equations are then derived for a mixed model. This paper shows that the estimators that follow from these equations are consistent and asymptotically normal. The results are illustrated by an example about the direction taken by homing pigeons.
Tests for Monotonic Intensity in a Poisson Process
Authors: Hu Xiaomi
Published: March 2003

Likelihood ratio tests about the intensity function are obtained by confining the estimated intensity function of a Poisson process to a sample‐dependent, left‐continuous step function class. These tests have relatively simple test statistics and their distributions are stochastically maximized when the process is homogeneous.
Theory & Methods: Exact Short Confidence Intervals from Discrete Data
Authors: Kabaila Paul , Byrne John
Published: March 2003

Suppose that X is a discrete random variable whose possible values are {0, 1, 2,⋯} and whose probability mass function belongs to a family indexed by the scalar parameter θ. This paper presents a new algorithm for finding a 1 −α confidence interval for θ based on X which possesses the following three properties: (i) the infimum over θ of the coverage probability is 1 −α; (ii) the confidence interval cannot be shortened without violating the coverage requirement; (iii) the lower and upper endpoints of the confidence intervals are increasing functions of the observed value x. This algorithm is applied to the particular case that X has a negative binomial distribution.
Theory & Methods: ε‐Repetitions of the Maximum Residuals in an AR(1) Model
Authors: Shinjikashvili Eka
Published: March 2003

This paper considers record values of residuals or prediction errors in a one‐parameter autoregressive process and the statistic Zn= number of ε‐repetitions of this record. When the parameter of the autoregression is unknown, the prediction errors, and therefore Zn, are unobservable. Here an observable analogue Ẑ of Zn is considered. It is proved that under special conditions the difference Zn− unobservable. Here an observable analogue Ẑ converges to zero in probability and therefore that unobservable. Here an observable analogue Ẑ has the same asymptotic behaviour as Zn.
Theory & Methods: Selecting Closest to Control
Authors: Bofinger Eve , Liu Wei
Published: March 2003

Consider the usual one‐way fixed effect analysis of variance model where the populations Πi (I= 0, 1, . . . , k) have independent normal distributions with unknown means and common unknown variance. Let Π0 be a control population with which the other (treatment) populations are to be compared. The basic problem is to select the treatment that is closest to the control mean. This situation occurs when one of the Πi must be chosen, regardless of how many are equivalent to the control in the sense of having means sufficiently close. This paper follows the approach of Hsu (1996) and is based on a set of simultaneous confidence intervals. It provides a table of critical values which allows direct implementation of the new inference procedure. The applications given are of the balanced cross‐over design type with negligible carry‐over effects, for which the results of this paper may be used. One of the applications refers to the selection of a drug, which may not be bioequivalent to a reference formulation but is the closest of those drugs that are readily available to the group of patients considered.
Theory & Methods: Fitting a semi‐parametric model based on two sources of information
Authors: Qiu Peihua
Published: March 2003

This paper discusses fitting a semi‐parametric model based on two sources of information, motivated by a rat sleep dataset. In a recent study, rats were exposed to two different lighting conditions. The first (baseline) condition was a standard 24‐hour schedule of 12 hours lights on, 12 hours lights off; the second (test) condition exposed rats to a continuous 3 hours lights on, 3 hours lights off schedule. Rat sleep was believed to be affected mainly by the circadian rhythm under the baseline lighting condition and by both the circadian rhythm and light under the test lighting condition. This paper suggests fitting a non‐parametric model for the dataset under the baseline lighting condition. For the dataset under the test lighting condition, a two‐part model is suggested. The first part equals an unknown coefficient multiplied by the non‐parametric function used for modelling the dataset under the baseline lighting condition, explaining the remnant of the circadian rhythm under the test lighting condition. The second part is a periodic non‐parametric function which would explain the effect of the test lighting condition. This modelling procedure can be used to model other physiological parameters affected by both intrinsic and extrinsic factors.
Theory & Methods: Approximations of distributions for some standardized partial sums in sequential analysis
Authors: Liu Wei , Wang Nan , Wang Suojin
Published: March 2003

In sequential analysis it is often necessary to determine the distributions of √tYt and/or √a Yt, where t is a stopping time of the form t= inf{n ≥ 1 : n+Sn+ξn> a}, Yn is the sample mean of n independent and identically distributed random variables (iidrvs) Yi with mean zero and variance one, Sn is the partial sum of iidrvs Xi with mean zero and a positive finite variance, and {ξn} is a sequence of random variables that converges in distribution to a random variable ξ as n→∞ and ξn is independent of (Xn+1, Yn+1), (Xn+2, Yn+2), . . . for all n ≥ 1. Anscombe’s (1952) central limit theorem asserts that both √t Yt and √a Yt are asymptotically normal for large a, but a normal approximation is not accurate enough for many applications. Refined approximations are available only for a few special cases of the general setting above and are often very complex. This paper provides some simple Edgeworth approximations that are numerically satisfactory for the problems it considers.
Applications: The Mathematics of Electoral District Allocation in New Zealand
Authors: Westbrooke Ian , Ryan Michael
Published: March 2003

This paper outlines the implicit conceptual basis of New Zealand’s electoral district allocation, as embodied in the Electoral Act 1993. It puts the words of the Act into simple mathematical formulae and describes how these concepts are implemented in the Government Statistician’s electoral calculations, with examples from the 1997 calculations. The paper shows how the Māori Option affects the number of Māori electoral districts, and describes an unexpected effect of the Option on the number of General electoral districts.
An Application of Non–Ignorable Non–Response Models for Gross Flows Estimation in the British Labour Force Survey
Authors: Clarke Paul S. , Tate P. F.
Published: March 2003

In previous work, non–response adjustments based on calibration weighting have been proposed for estimating gross flows in economic activity status from the quarterly Labour Force Survey. However, even after adjustment there may be residual non–response bias. The weighting is based on estimates of cross–sectional distributions and so cannot adjust for bias if non–response is associated with individual flows between quarters. To investigate this possibility, it was decided to apply models for estimating gross flows when non–response depends on the flows. This paper has two aims: first to describe the many problems encountered when attempting to implement these models; and second to outline a solution to the major problem that arose, namely, that comparing the model results directly with the weighting results was not possible. A simulation study was used to compare the results indirectly and it was tentatively concluded that non–response is not strongly associated with the flows and that the weighting provides an adequate adjustment.
Estimation in Semiparametric Marginal Shared Gamma Frailty Models
Authors: Vu Hien T.V. , Knuiman Matthew W.
Published: March 2003

The semiparametric marginal shared frailty models in survival analysis have the non–parametric hazard functions multiplied by a random frailty in each cluster, and the survival times conditional on frailties are assumed to be independent. In addition, the marginal hazard functions have the same form as in the usual Cox proportional hazard models. In this paper, an approach based on maximum likelihood and expectation–maximization is applied to semiparametric marginal shared gamma frailty models, where the frailties are assumed to be gamma distributed with mean 1 and variance θ. The estimates of the fixed–effect parameters and their standard errors obtained using this approach are compared in terms of both bias and efficiency with those obtained using the extended marginal approach. Similarly, the standard errors of our frailty variance estimates are found to compare favourably with those obtained using other methods. The asymptotic distribution of the frailty variance estimates is shown to be a 50–50 mixture of a point mass at zero and a truncated normal random variable on the positive axis for θ0 = 0. Simulations demonstrate that, for θ0 < 0, it is approximately an x−(100 −x)%, 0 ≤x≤ 50, mixture between a point mass at zero and a truncated normal random variable on the positive axis for small samples and small values of θ0; otherwise, it is approximately normal.
Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in a Model of Imperfect Competition With Transactions Money
Authors: Molana Hassan
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the effectiveness of fiscal policy in a general equilibrium macromodel with transactions money and an oligopolistic product market. The results suggest that although money may be neutral and play no direct role as a policy instrument, its indirect impact on the effectiveness of fiscal policy can be quite substantial. In particular, when money balances feature as a choice variable in the households' objective function, (i) fiscal policy becomes ineffective as the weight attached to money is reduced; (ii) the fiscal multiplier becomes negative when the elasticity of substitution between money and leisure exceeds unity; and (iii) it is possible that policy effects are in fact enhanced as the product market becomes more competitive.
Pricing and Investment Decisions for a Tollway With Possible Route Substitution onto Alternative Congested Roads
Authors: Choe Chongwoo , Clarke Harry
Published: March 2003

Socially optimal pricing and investment decisions are analysed for a tollway that experiences competition from unpriced, congested roads. The resulting ‘second‐best’ problem has a simple qualitative structure: optimal tolls are set lower than they would be without the unpriced congestion. The impact of such low tolls would be to induce higher levels of tollway traffic demand than would occur without route substitution possibilities. However, such demands are offset by installing less capacity than would be installed without route substitution.
The Soviet Military Administration and East German Elections, Autumn 1946
Authors: Creuzberger Stefan
Published: March 2003

Even before the capitulation of Germany in 1945 the Soviet Union had begun to make preparations for a step‐by‐step communist seizure of power in the territories it controlled. This paper shows that the elections in the Soviet Occupation Zone (SBZ) in autumn 1946 were part of this radical change. Unpublished Russian documents provide evidence that Soviet military authorities had planned almost every detail of this campaign to ensure that the Socialist Unity Party of German (SED) headed the poll — and this was even more evident after the crushing defeat of the communists in Hungary and Austria in 1945. In any case the Soviets were determined that such defeat should not happen again due to Stalin’s postwar plans to establish a predominantly communist Germany.
‘Concentric Circles’ at the Periphery of the European Union
Authors: Muller Karis
Published: March 2003

After World War II when the governments of several European states attempted to form supranational groupings, colonial obligations posed problems that persist to this day. The article traces immediate postwar history, outlining the present relationship between the EC institutions and what remain of member‐state Empires, before proceeding to two case studies. The first concerns the ramifications of ‘Euroland’ in present or past dependencies after European Monetary Union. The second considers the role of European dependencies in military alliances and analyses how one of the founding Treaties was used in the mid‐1990s after the discovery that it applied extra‐territorially. The conclusion is that the external border of multi‐speed Europe is even more variable than it might otherwise be because of the attachments some member states retain to colonial remnants.
Holt, Johnson and the 1966 Federal Election. A Question of Causality
Authors: Williams Paul D.
Published: March 2003

US President Lyndon Johnson's state visit to Australia in October 1966, came at the pinnacle of support for Australia's military involvement in the Vietnam War. Johnson's visit also occurred just weeks before an election for the House of Representatives at which the ruling Liberal‐Country Party Coalition won its eighth successive, and largest victory. The proximity of these events has led many to argue that a causal relationship exists between the two. Advocates of this thesis, however, have failed to support their position with any evidence other than the anecdotal. Contrary to the assertions made by numerous political historians and observers of the period, this paper finds no evidence to support a thesis of causality. This paper argues that the Coalition's landslide victory in 1966 was both a rejection of the tired and lacklustre leadership of Labor's Arthur Calwell and a measure of the electorate's overwhelming support for Holt and his Government's policies of conscription and military involvement in Vietnam.
The Lansdowne “Peace Letter” of 1917 and the Prospect of Peace by Negotiation with Germany
Authors: Newton Douglas
Published: March 2003

In late November 1917, Lord Lansdowne, one of the most senior of British Unionist politicians, wrote a letter to the editor of the Daily Telegraph. The letter asked for the war aims of the Entente and the USA to be “coordinated” and suggested that a moderate revision of war aims might bring a negotiated peace nearer. The letter appeared to ally Lansdowne with the British Radicals, who had been close to President Wilson (until April 1917), and had argued for a negotiated peace to end the war since the autumn of 1916. The letter was ferociously denounced by the Northcliffe press, and by many of Lansdowne's Unionist colleagues. It was supposedly a “plea for surrender” and “a national misfortune”. Nevertheless, it touched off a series of new departures in the search for a negotiated settlement: House's visit to the inter Allied Conference in December, the Labour War Aims Memorandum, Lloyd George's Caxton Hall speech, Wilson's Fourteen Points Address, and the beginning of a public parley with the Central Powers in the replies of Hertling and Czernin in January 1918. The paper examines the possibilities for a negotiated peace during the winter of 1917–1918, that is, in the period between the publication of Lansdowne's famous letter and the sudden Versailles “Knockout Blow” Declaration of February 1918 which rejected out of hand any prospect of negotiation. The paper examines Wilson's ambiguous position in this debate, and in particular the evolution of moderate opinion inside Germany in reaction to these events. The paper suggests the unfortunate enfeeblement of moderate opinion in Germany in the face of the apparent triumph of “knockout blow” opinion in the Entente camp.
“Export or Die”; Foreign Trade in the Third Reich
Authors: Leitz Christian
Published: March 2003

In recent years, a substantial number of publications has enriched our understanding of the economic history of the Third Reich. In particular the history of German companies during the 1930s and 1940s has been examined in much greater detail. Major companies (among others VW, Allianz, Deutsche Bank, Bertelsmann) have opened up their archives to historians — not for the production of self‐glorifying company histories, but for critical analyses of the experience, attitude and policies of the particular company in the Third Reich. It is now possible to draw more detailed and clearer conclusions on the relationship between the Nazi regime and the business community than only twenty years ago. As part of a wider research project on “Foreign Trade in the Third Reich” I draw upon these recent research outcomes and earlier publications, along with my own research on a particularly important sector of the German economy, engineering, to provide an outline analysis of three significant areas: The economic views and policies of leading members of the Nazi regime in general and towards Germany's industrial export sector in particular, the experience (relations to regime, policies, responses) of German companies in the Third Reich in general and of exporters of manufactured products in particular, and, as a case study, the experience of producers and exporters of machinery.
The State in World History: Perspectives and Problems
Authors: Melleuish Gregory
Published: March 2003

This paper investigates the role of the state in world history and analyses some of the major issues confronting such an investigation with a particular focus on the relationship between the modern European state and the other historical forms of the state. Firstly it considers the problems raised by the fact that the terminology of state analysis is derived from a discourse that arose to explain the particularity of European state development. Secondly it considers the problem of the origins of the state. It examines two major issues: van Creveld’s argument that only modern European states are real states and the chiefdom/state distinction. It argues that new political forms occurred both with the emergence of civilisation and the “state” in the ancient world and with the development of the modern European state after 1300. Thirdly it considers the issue of a typology of states through an examination of the model developed by Finer in his The History of Government. It argues that this model is only really effective in dealing with pre–modern political forms and that the modern European state needs to be understood as a deviant from the Eurasian norm of the agrarian empire.
The Mobilisation of the Intellectuals 1914–1915 and the Continuity of German Historical Consciousness
Authors: Moses John A.
Published: March 2003

There is renewed historical interest in the role played by intellectuals in all belligerent countries in the period leading up to and during the First World War. Whereas prior to the war scholars from all countries engaged in civilised scientific discourse, immediately after the outbreak of war they appeared to re–discover their own fatherlands and became passionately patriotic, placing their expertise at the service of their respective countries for the prosecution of the war. On closer scrutiny, however, the case of the German intellectual elite appears significantly different from their counterparts in other belligerent countries. They perceived themselves, more than, say, the British academic community, and certainly earlier than these, as virtual prophets called to justify their nation’s war policies. This paper investigates the perceptions of German intellectuals, their explanation for the war and their various war–aims programs. It is suggested that the intellectuals/academics contributed in no small way to the formation of German political will.
Poland and Hungary, 1956: A Comparative Essay Based on New Archival Findings
Authors: Granville Johanna
Published: March 2003

Why did the Soviet Union intervene in Hungary in 1956 but not in Poland? This article reviews the “historical thesis”, “personality thesis”, and “neutrality thesis”. It concludes that, while the new archival sources do not radically alter these three older theses, they do yield some insights. Wladyslaw Gomulka was perhaps less successful in deterring the Soviet leaders during the latter’s 19 October visit to Poland and less secure politically in his own country than originally thought. In addition, Imre Nagy may not have been as progressive, given his initial opposition to the very decisions for which he has gone down in history as having made.
Change in the Australian Electricity Industry: A Case Analysis
Authors: Nelson Lindsay , Dowling Peter
Published: March 2003

In this article a contextualist framework is used for theoretical analysis, in which context, content and process are linked over time. Within this framework we begin with the contextual factors which appear to be significant in restructuring the electricity industry, then outline the pathway taken by reform in the United States of America, United Kingdom and Australia, before describing the principal changes to one organisation and the management issues which have arisen as a result of these changes.
Ethics Goes Global: The OECD Council Recommendation on Improving Ethical Conduct in the Public Sector
Authors: Mills Alexandra
Published: March 2003

On 23 April 1998 the Council of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development issued the Recommendation on Improving Ethical Conduct in the Public Sector. It is the result of more than three years research, analysis and cooperation between OECD member countries, and, as a statement from the highest level of the organisation, it represents a consensus of all of its 29 members on an issue of global public concern. This article is a speculative analysis of a new international development that may have implications for local public management practice. The purpose of this article is to unearth some of the theoretical assumptions on which the recommendation relies and to consider the implications they might have for its implementation and effectiveness.
Partnerships to Improve Rural and Remote Health Care
Authors: Walker Judi
Published: March 2003

It is well known that rural communities do not have access to the same range of healthcare services as urban communities and that health status is poorer in rural areas. As models of health service delivery are changing from treatment and illness prevention to wellness models, health providers are under increasing pressure to re‐engineer healthcare services to rural and remote areas in a climate of shrinking resources and community skepticism. The purpose of this article is to examine a developing model of partnership in rural Tasmaniain the context of these changes to health service delivery, changes to health professional training and the application of information and telecommunications technology. The partners are the Tasmanian Department of Health and Human Services and the University of Tasmania. The establishment of the university’s Rural Health Teaching Sites in conjunction with the Tasmanian Telehealth Network provides a demonstration of this partnership in action.
Policy Consulting and Public Policy
Authors: Martin John Francis
Published: March 2003

The changing nature of governance in Australia over the last two decades has given rise to a broad range of new strategies to review the development and delivery of government policies and programs. Key factors affecting the relationship between citizens and the state have been the deregulation and liberalisation of the Australian economy, with its focus on the market for the delivery of services, once the exclusive domain of public sector organisations. The increased use of consultants over this period is an example of governments going to the market for professional services. Effective policy development and review by consultants requires that they be well versed both in the substantive issues surrounding the policy field as well as in the process required to properly frame and evaluate these issues.
Policy‐making in a Restructured State: The Case of the 1991 Health Reform Policy in New Zealand
Authors: Barnett Pauline , Jacobs Kerry
Published: March 2003

The pressure for efficiency and accountability that led to reform of public institutions worldwide has had implications for public policy‐making as well as the management of public services. The difficulties of providing a coordinated and efficient policy process that can respond to the requirements of a more managerialist style of government were evident in New Zealand in the 1980s and early 1990s. The policy process in 1990–91 leading to the introduction of health reform proposals provides an illuminating case study of the tension between participation and speed, and between traditional pluralist and managerialist approaches to policy development. The implications of this for subsequent implementation are discussed.
Establishing New Advertising Self‐regulatory Schemes: A Comparison of the UK and Australian Approaches
Authors: Harker Debra , Harker Michael
Published: March 2003

Advertising is the most visible element of modern marketing, and an important component of trading. It is also an activity often accused by its critics of being intrusive and pervasive. Such accusations are not easily refuted by a worldwide industry which spends billions of dollars each year reaching and persuading its target markets through daily bombardment of thousands of ads in most developed countries. When advertising does offend, mislead, or is untruthful, a structure needs to be in place in order to provide protection to all parties and, in most cases, a country's legal system is complemented by a self‐regulatory scheme. Self‐regulation is a common approach to controlling conduct or behaviour in society and, indeed, Australian advertisers have opted for this system of control for more than 60 years.
Participation, Fragmentation and Union Response: The 1998–2000 ACT Public Sector Bargaining Round and the Workplace Relations Act
Authors: Junor Anne
Published: March 2003

The current Australian Capital Territory (ACT) public sector workplace bargaining round lasted more than two years with most agreements involving a trade‐off between low wage outcomes and protection of job security within performance improvement measures. The main focus of this paper is on government and agency experiments with bargaining structures and processes. The first was a limited and largely unsuccessful attempt in 1998 and 1999 at participative agreement making without the involvement of the key unions. The second, a selective decentralisation of bargaining to parts of a single business, was more successful: of 50 agreements, over 40 have been achieved. The procedural success of the decentralisation strategy is a significant outcome. However, the fragmentation strategy contained internal contradictions and required strong centralised policy control of bargaining agendas and outcomes, leading to delays and breeding distrust. Unions conducted effective defensive campaigns against non‐union agreements and involuntary redundancies, but face their own dilemmas in finalising this round and preparing for the next.
National Competition Policy: Key Lessons for Policy‐making from its Implementation
Authors: Deighton‐Smith Rex
Published: March 2003

This article will first briefly describe the National Competition Policy, then set out some of the major results achieved to date, before focusing on the key lessons that can be learned from the experience of its implementation.
Australian Ministerial Advisers and the Royal Commission on Government Administration
Authors: Maley Maria
Published: March 2003

The role of the ministerial office was one of the key issues investigated by the Royal Commission on Australian Gvoernment Administration (RCAGA) in 1976. At the time the ministerial office was undergoing new and controversial developments. In the 25 years since the Royal Commission the new ministerial office has become a permanent and accepted part of our machinery of government. This paper reviews RCAGA’s analysis of ministerial advisers and uses research on the Keating advisers in 1995–96 to track how the institution of the ministerial office has developed since the time of the Royal Commission.
Governance for Sustainability
Authors: Yencken David
Published: March 2003

Environmental policies and responses are strongly influenced by a government’s knowledge and understanding of environmental problems, its assessment of their severity, the expert opinions available to it on the size of the response needed, its understanding of the driving forces leading to environmental deterioration and the influence of prevailing theories and paradigms. Environmental policy cannot furthermore exist in a policy vacuum. Environmental goals may or may not be strongly weighted compared to other societal goals especially economic goals. All these influences have major bearing on the approach taken by governments to environmental policy.
Deregulation, Competitive Pressures and the Emergence of Intermodalism
Authors: Everett Sophia
Published: March 2003

Deregulation has dramatically altered the face of Australian industry and associated services throughout the last decade or so. In the transport sector, in particular, changes have been significant and deregulation has led to pervasive changes in market structure, to the actual ownership of infrastructure and to a shift in strategic focus from a public utility to one of commercial viability and market orientation. Competitive pressures in the transport sector as a result of deregulation have meant that traditional public sector organisations such as railways and ports have been transformed. A major impact of these developments has been that transport operators, in an endeavour either to maintain or capture market share, have been forced to restructure and refocus and, in the face of growing competition, have been forced to reinvent themselves and move increasingly towards the provision of an integrated intermodal service. Rail operators are now no longer simple linehaul operators in container or bulk freight markets but have become market–focused third–party service providers of a range of integrated functions.
Implementing Racial Anti‐vilification Laws in New South Wales 1989‐1998: A Study
Authors: Gelber Katharine
Published: March 2003

Anti‐vilification laws in Australia now have a decade‐long history, yet remarkably little research has been conducted into their operation, nor has there been any systematic collation of outcomes. This paper seeks to fill this gap in the available research and also to make some proposals as to how to improve the legislation in practice. The paper reports on 10 years of complaints lodged under the NSW racial anti‐vilification legislation, the oldest in Australia enacted in 1989. Other similar legislation followed in WA, SA, Tasmania. The results of all finalised case files from NSW since its inception in 1989 to the end of 1998 (568 cases) are examined. The research combines quantitative and qualitative methodologies. Some statistical data are provided, which are not relative; that is, there is no meaning available or implied between the different categories of outcome and each case has been interpreted separately. The qualitative method used provides an in‐depth examination of specific case study outcomes in order to provide an accurate and sensitivepicture of the legislation in practice. The study may also be of use to researchers in other complaints‐driven systems of regulation designed to support beneficial legislation.
Restoring the Federation
Authors: Conn AO Neil
Published: March 2003

The 1999 Sir Robert Garran Oration, delivered at the IPAA National Conference, Darwin 8–10 September 1999.
The Argument from Potential: A Reappraisal
Authors: Reichlin Massimo
Published: March 2003

Several criticisms of the argument from potential are reported. It is noted that such criticisms are inspired by two similarly wrong interpretations of potentiality, one confusing it with possibility and another with probability. A brief analysis of the original Aristotelian context in which the concept emerged shows that potentiality cannot be thought of as indicating the provision of some empirical facts in the future, but must rather be referred to the inherent ontological structure of the being in question. It is then argued that such an Aristotelian concept can be useful to express the dynamic structure of the person, as it must be understood according to contemporary phenomenological personalism. In the light of this philosophical tradition, the embryo can be vieewed as a being already possessing the human nature and actively developing its potential for personhood: it also follows that human nature must not be understood as a static and predetermined essence, but rather as the principle of becoming and movement toward further achievements.
Freedom and a Right (Not) to Know
Authors: Räikkä Juha
Published: March 2003

The article discusses the relationship between the notion of a moral right to personal self‐determination, the notion of a moral right to know and the notion of a moral right not to know. In particular, the author asks under what conditions, if any, the right to self‐determination implies a right to have information or a right not to have information. The conclusions he defends are theoretical in character rather than concrete norms and directions, and they are intended to be relevant in many contexts, not only in the context of information concerning, say, medical decisions. Yet the author restates the question concerning the right to have and especially the right not to have genetic knowledge about one's own genes on the basis of a right to self‐determination. He argues that a right (not) to have genetic information can be defended on the ground of a right to self‐determination, but that this kind of defense presupposes several normative, and controversial, arguments.