bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Using Text Mining to Identify Teleological Explanations in Physics and Biology Textbooks: An Exploratory Study
Authors: Brock Richard , Tsourakis Nikos , Kampourakis Kostas
Published: March 2024

Creating and critiquing explanations of phenomena is a significant goal of many scientific disciplines and therefore also a learning goal of science education. A significant source of explanations is science textbooks; however, the large corpus of text in textbooks means that manual review of explanations by individual researchers is extremely time consuming. In this paper, we introduce a text-mining approach for identifying legitimate and illegitimate forms of teleological explanations in school physics and biology textbooks. An ongoing debate exists about the legitimacy of teleological explanations, that is, explanations which account for a phenomenon by reference to a final end, purpose, or goal. Until recently, researchers tended to view teleology as an illegitimate form of scientific explanation. Recent theoretical cases in biology and physics have emphasized that legitimate teleological explanations exist in both domains. Eight science textbooks used in England and internationally were analyzed for instances of teleological explanations. The analysis reveals the efficiency of the text-mining approach for automating the analysis of textbooks and its potential as a research approach in science education. In considering text mining as a research approach, we report terms that are likely to be associated with legitimate teleological explanations. We found that legitimate teleological accounts are used by textbook authors, and we present novel categorizations of these forms of explanation. We argue that text mining can be a useful approach in science education research and our findings suggest guidance for both textbook writers and teachers related to their selection of legitimate explanatory forms.
Finite Hilbert Systems for Weak Kleene Logics
Authors: Greati Vitor , Marcelino Sérgio , Rivieccio Umberto
Published: March 2024

Multiple-conclusion Hilbert-style systems allow us to finitely axiomatize every logic defined by a finite matrix. Having obtained such axiomatizations for Paraconsistent Weak Kleene and Bochvar–Kleene logics, we modify them by replacing the multiple-conclusion rules with carefully selected single-conclusion ones. In this way we manage to introduce the first finite Hilbert-style single-conclusion axiomatizations for these logics.
Shared Attention as a Revelatory Practice
Authors: Fredriksson Antony
Published: March 2024

In order to understand what we are talking about when we talk about joint attention, I will scrutinize how the mainstream view that builds on representational and intentionalist theories of mind is constituted. My aim is to show that much of the theory of joint attention is quite narrowly constructed and comes with tacit disciplinary biases that exclude much of what is existentially important in our practices of sharing our perceptions and guiding others to attend to the world in novel ways. By using the frameworks of classical phenomenology and enactivist theories of mind, I aim to show how we, in our interactions, share our perceptions even with beings that are distinctly different from us. And, that this difference in our personal worldview, our cognitive capacities, and our sensory modalities should be seen as a constitutive aspect of our practices of shared attention. I will articulate attention as a revelatory practice that aids us in discovering a shared world through the plurality, rather than similarity, of our perceptual actions. Attention is, in this sense, not solely driven by subjective intentions; it is also formed and co-constituted by my being addressed by the other.
Plasma and serum metabolic analysis of healthy adults shows characteristic profiles by subjects’ sex and age
Authors: Xu Rui , Zhang Shiqi , Li Jieli , Zhu Jiangjiang
Published: March 2024

Introduction

Pre-analytical factors like sex, age, and blood processing methods introduce variability and bias, compromising data integrity, and thus deserve close attention.

Objectives

This study aimed to explore the influence of participant characteristics (age and sex) and blood processing methods on the metabolic profile.

Method

A Thermo UPLC-TSQ-Quantiva-QQQ Mass Spectrometer was used to analyze 175 metabolites across 9 classes in 208 paired serum and lithium heparin plasma samples from 51 females and 53 males.

Results

Comparing paired serum and plasma samples from the same cohort, out of the 13 metabolites that showed significant changes, 4 compounds related to amino acids and derivatives had lower levels in plasma, and 5 other compounds had higher levels in plasma. Sex-based analysis revealed 12 significantly different metabolites, among which most amino acids and derivatives and nitrogen-containing compounds were higher in males, and other compounds were elevated in females. Interestingly, the volcano plot also confirms the similar patterns of amino acids and derivatives higher in males. The age-based analysis suggested that metabolites may undergo substantial alterations during the 25-35-year age range, indicating a potential metabolic turning point associated with the age group. Moreover, a more distinct difference between the 25–35 and above 35 age groups compared to the below 25 and 25–35 age groups was observed, with the most significant compound decreased in the above 35 age groups.

Conclusion

These findings may contribute to the development of comprehensive metabolomics analyses with confounding factor-based adjustment and enhance the reliability and interpretability of future large-scale investigations.
Computationally characterizing the diffusive boundary layer in lakes and reservoirs
Authors: Man Xiamei , Lei Chengwang , Bierlein Kevin A. , Bryant Lee D. , Lewis Abigail S. , Carey Cayelan C. , Little John C.
Published: March 2024

Purpose

Hypolimnetic hypoxia has become increasingly prevalent in stratified water bodies in recent decades due to climate change. One primary sink of dissolved oxygen (DO) is sediment oxygen uptake ($${J}_{{O}_{2}}$$

J

O
2

). On the water side of the sediment–water interface (SWI), $${J}_{{O}_{2}}$$

J

O
2

is controlled by a diffusive boundary layer (DBL), a millimeter-scale layer where molecular diffusion is the primary transport mechanism. In previous studies, the DBL was determined by visual inspection, which is subjective and time-consuming.

Material and methods

In this study, a computational procedure is proposed to determine the SWI and DBL objectively and automatically. The procedure was evaluated for more than 300 DO profiles in the sediment of three eutrophic water bodies spanning gradients of depth and surface area. Synthetic DO profiles were modeled based on sediment characteristics estimated by laboratory experiments. The procedure was further verified adopting the synthetic profiles.

Results and discussion

The procedure, which was evaluated for both measured and synthetic DO profiles, determined the SWI and DBL well for both steady and non-steady state DO profiles. A negative relationship between DBL thickness and aeration rates was observed, which agrees with existing literatures.

Conclusions

The procedure is recommended for future studies involving characterizing DBL to improve efficiency and consistency.
Empirical modeling of soil erosion using unit plot data at Sparacia experimental area (southern Italy)
Authors: Pampalone Vincenzo , Serio Maria Angela , Bagarello Vincenzo , Ferro Vito
Published: March 2024

Purpose

Soil loss estimation by the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) – based approach is widely used to perform soil conservation interventions. The recently proposed USLE-MB model explicitly accounts for plot runoff coefficient in the erosivity factor. Both the USLE and the USLE-MB can be deduced using a reference condition given by the unit plot, which is characterized by fixed length, steepness and bare soil tilled along the steepest slope. There is little evidence about the existence of the unit plot among those used to develop the USLE model, and few investigations experimentally considered this condition later.

Methods

In the present investigation, the USLE and USLE-MB models were parameterized using measurements performed in the Sparacia unit plots, in Sicily.

Results

The USLE soil erodibility factor differed significantly from the nomograph value and also from the estimates previously obtained by two methods applied to measurements collected in plots having different length and steepness compared to the unit plot. The experimentally determined soil erodibility factor of the USLE-MB also differed from those determined with these two methods. The slope steepness factor determined according to its definition was not consistent with that estimated with known literature relationships. The slope length factor was nearly constant for the USLE and assumed to be constant for the USLE-MB, in contrast with the increasing relationship with the plot length suggested by the USLE.

Conclusion

This investigation elucidated the discrepancy between the single factors of the models obtained using measurements from the unit plot and those otherwise estimated.
Reliable electrocortical dynamics of target-directed pass-kicks
Authors: Piskin Daghan , Büchel Daniel , Lehmann Tim , Baumeister Jochen
Published: March 2024

Football is one of the most played sports in the world and kicking with adequate accuracy increases the likelihood of winning a competition. Although studies with different target-directed movements underline the role of distinctive cortical activity on superior accuracy, little is known about cortical dynamics associated with kicking. Mobile electroencephalography is a popular tool to investigate cortical modulations during movement, however, inherent and artefact-related pitfalls may obscure the reliability of functional sources and their activity. The purpose of this study was therefore to describe consistent cortical dynamics underlying target-directed pass-kicks based on test–retest reliability estimates. Eleven participants performed a target-directed kicking task at two different sessions within one week. Electroencephalography was recorded using a 65-channel mobile system and behavioural data were collected including motion range, acceleration and accuracy performance. Functional sources were identified using independent component analysis and clustered in two steps with the components of first and subsequently both sessions. Reliability estimates of event-related spectral perturbations were computed pixel-wise for participants contributing with components of both sessions. The parieto-occipital and frontal clusters were reproducible for the same majority of the sample at both sessions. Their activity showed consistent alpha desyhronization and theta sychnronisation patterns with substantial reliability estimates revealing visual and attentional demands in different phases of kicking. The findings of our study reveal prominent cortical demands during the execution of a target-directed kick which may be considered in practical implementations and provide promising academic prospects in the comprehension and investigation of cortical activity associated with target-directed movements.
Mixtures of regressions using matrix-variate heavy-tailed distributions
Authors: Tomarchio Salvatore D. , Gallaugher Michael P. B.
Published: March 2024

Finite mixtures of regressions (FMRs) are powerful clustering devices used in many regression-type analyses. Unfortunately, real data often present atypical observations that make the commonly adopted normality assumption of the mixture components inadequate. Thus, to robustify the FMR approach in a matrix-variate framework, we introduce ten FMRs based on the matrix-variatetand contaminated normal distributions. Furthermore, once one of our models is estimated and the observations are assigned to the groups, different procedures can be used for the detection of the atypical points in the data. An ECM algorithm is outlined for maximum likelihood parameter estimation. By using simulated data, we show the negative consequences (in terms of parameter estimates and inferred classification) of the wrong normality assumption in the presence of heavy-tailed clusters or noisy matrices. Such issues are properly addressed by our models instead. Additionally, over the same data, the atypical points detection procedures are also investigated. A real-data analysis concerning the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and their determinants is conducted, and the behavior of our models in the presence of heterogeneity and atypical observations is discussed.
Prophylactic and Therapeutic Efficacy of Ultrasonicated Rosmarinus officinalis Ethanolic Extract and its Chitosan-Loaded Nanoparticles Against Eimeria tenella Infected Broiler Chickens
Authors: Kasem Shaimaa M. , Mira Nabila M. , Helal Ibrahim B. , Mahfouz Magdy E.
Published: March 2024

Purpose

The in vivo efficacy of ultrasonicated Rosmarinus officinalis ethanolic extract (UROEE) and its chitosan-loaded nanoparticles (UROEE-CsNPs) was investigated as a dietary prophylactic agent and as a therapeutic treatment against Eimeria tenella infected broiler chickens.

Methods

Chickens were infected with 4 × 104E. tenella oocysts at 21 days old for primary infection and with 8 × 104 oocysts at 35 days old for secondary infection. Eleven experimental groups were conducted. Dietary addition of 100 mg/kg UROEE and 20 mg/kg for CsNPs as well as UROEE-CsNPs were included for prophylactic groups from day 1 to 42. The same doses were used for therapeutic treatment groups for 5 constitutive days. Oocyst output in feces was counted. Histopathological and immunohistochemical studies were conducted. Gene expression of pro-inflammatory cytokines as IFN-γ, IL-1β and IL-6 as well as anti-inflammatory cytokines as IL-10 and TGF-β4 was analyzed using semi-quantitative reverse transcriptase-PCR.

Results

The results showed an efficacy of UROEE, CsNPs and UROEE-CsNPs in reduction of oocyst excretion and improving the cecal tissue architecture. CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes protein expression were reduced. E. tenella infection lead to upregulation of pro-inflammatory cytokines as IFN-γ, IL-1β, IL-6 and anti-inflammatory cytokines as TGF-β4 following primary infection, while their expression was downregulated following secondary infection.

Conclusion

The dietary prophylactic additives and therapeutic treatments with UROEE, CsNPs and UROEE-CsNPs could decrease the inflammatory response to E. tenella as indicated by oocyst output reduction, histopathological improvements, CD4+ and CD8+ T cells protein expression reduction as well as reducing mRNA expression levels of the tested cytokines following primary and secondary infections. Consequently, these results will help to develop better-combating strategies for the control and prevention of coccidiosis on poultry farms as a dietary prophylactic agent or as a therapeutic treatment.

Graphical Abstract
Eating disorders and COVID-19 - different or just more?
Authors: Rafferty Cathal , O’Donnell Angela , Campbell Sally , Sun Bohan , King Jenny , Ali Zeinab , Lynch Diarmuid , Barrett Elizabeth , Richardson Sarah , Clifford Michelle , McNicholas Fiona
Published: March 2024

Background

COVID-19 saw an increase in child mental health presentations internationally. Clinicians analogised the exponential increase in anorexia nervosa to a ‘tsunami’ or ‘outbreak’, raising parallel concerns regarding medical and psychological risks (Marsh in The Guardian, 2021; Leask in NZ Herald, 2021; Monteleone et al. in Eat Weight Disord 26(8):2443–2452, 2021) . It is unclear whether Ireland emulated this picture of increased referrals with increased medical compromise.

Aims

This paper examines both rates and clinical profiles of child eating disorder presentations in the Republic of Ireland (ROI), across different clinical settings.

Methods

Following ethical approval, retrospective chart reviews were conducted in a community eating disorder service and in two paediatric hospital settings. The time frame of the different studies ranged from January 2016 to December 2022.

Results

Community eating disorder services saw significantly higher referral rates post COVID-19 (3.78/month vs. 2.31/month, p = 0.02), with a shorter duration of illness (4.8 months vs. 7.4 months, p = 0.001), but no significant difference in ideal body weight % (IBW%) at referral (85.32% vs. 83.7%, p = 0.1). Both paediatric hospitals witnessed significantly increased referrals post-COVID-19 (hospital 1; 4.38/month vs. 1.93/month, p = 0.0001; hospital 2; 2.8/month vs. 0.92/month, p < 0.0001), but no significant difference in IBW% at assessment (hospital 1; 82.7% vs. 81.39%, p = 0.673; hospital 2; 81.5% vs. 83%, p = 0.563). There was no significant difference in clinical profile, management, or duration of hospital stay.

Conclusions

This study supports the growing consensus of a pandemic specific increase in eating disorder referrals to both medical and psychiatry services. However, there was little to indicate a change in clinical profile or severity. Ongoing monitoring of referrals is necessary to ensure adequate service availability and expertise.
JAK-STAT Signaling and Beyond in the Pathogenesis of Spondyloarthritis and Their Clinical Significance
Authors: Raychaudhuri Siba P. , Shah Ruchi J. , Banerjee Sneha , Raychaudhuri Smriti K.
Published: March 2024

Purpose of Review

Janus kinase–signal transducers and activators of transcription cell signaling proteins (JAK-STATs) play a key regulatory role in functioning of several inflammatory cytokines. JAK-STAT signaling proteins are the key regulators of the cytokine/cytokine receptor system involved in the pathogenesis of various autoimmune disease including spondyloarthritis (SpA). This article mainly highlights the JAK-STAT signaling system, its association with the relevant cytokine/cytokine-receptor system, and its regulatory role in pathogenesis of SpA. Also, we have briefly addressed the principle for the use JAKi in SpA and the current status of use of JAK inhibitors (JAKi) in SpA.

Recent Findings

Recent developments with newer JAK molecules as well as other molecules beyond JAK inhibitors are now an exciting field for the development of novel therapies for autoimmune diseases and various malignant conditions. In this article, we have provided a special emphasis on how various cell signaling systems beyond JAK/STAT pathway are relevant to SpA and have provided a comprehensive review on this upcoming field in respect to the novel TYK2 inhibitors, RORγT inhibitors, mTOR inhibitors, NGF inhibitors, and various STAT kinase inhibitors.

SpA are a group of autoimmune diseases with multifactorial etiologies. SpA is linked with genetic predisposition, environmental risk factors, and the immune system-mediated systemic inflammation. Here, we have provided the regulatory role of JAK/STAT pathway and other intracellular signaling system in the pathogenesis of SpA and its therapeutic relevance.
The Sources of Happiness in Preadolescence and Adolescence: A Multi-Method and Multi-Informant Perspective
Authors: Izzo Flavia , Saija Edoardo , Pallini Susanna , Ioverno Salvatore , Baiocco Roberto , Pistella Jessica
Published: March 2024

Research on happiness in preadolescence and adolescence has been limited regarding the sources of happiness. The present study aims to explore such sources in preadolescents and adolescents through a multi-method and multi-informant approach. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 77 family triads: children (age range: 11–19; M = 13.90, SD = 2.70; 61% female), mothers (M = 47.50, SD = 4.35), and fathers (M = 50.53, SD = 5.30). The triads were asked to define happiness from children’s perspective, describe what makes children happy, and indicate children’s levels of happiness. Using quantitative data, preadolescents exhibited higher individual happiness levels than adolescents, and fathers reported higher levels of children’s happiness than mothers. Through Thematic Analysis, five primary sources of happiness emerged: Social relationships, Family relationships, Personal interests, Achievement, and Entertainment. Social relationships was the most recurring theme across the narratives of both preadolescents/adolescents and parents. The second most recurring theme was Personal interests for preadolescents/adolescents and Family relationships for parents. Parents notably more frequently mentioned Achievement than children. Males displayed a higher propensity to report the Entertainment theme than females, while females reported the Family relationships and Social relationships themes more frequently. Preadolescents exhibited a higher occurrence of the Entertainment and Family relationships themes than adolescents. Regarding the concordance of themes between children and their parents, low overall levels of agreement were observed, all below 40%. The highest levels of concordance were found between mothers and fathers rather than between parents and children. The results could provide valuable insights to parents and educators on how to help youth promote their happiness.
Annular impinging jets controlled by synthetic jets inducing a swirling flow character
Authors: Devani Y. , Antošová Z. , Trávníček Z.
Published: March 2024

Experimental research was conducted on an annular air jet. The active flow control was introduced by means of tangentially arranged synthetic jets. Flow visualization and measurements of the flow velocity and stagnation pressure on an impingement wall were performed. Tests were carried out with Reynolds numbers ranging from 4000 to 10,000 (evaluated from the outer exit diameter of the annular nozzle). Bistability and hysteretic effects were revealed, because two alternative flow field patterns (A and B) were identified under the same boundary conditions. In the A pattern, a small recirculation area (bubble) of separated flow was attached to the nozzle centerbody. In the B pattern, a large recirculation area of separated flow bridged the entire nozzle-to-wall distance. The effect of the Reynolds number was evaluated: the hysteresis and bistability were not observed for Re ≥ 9000. Concerning the effect of flow control, it was concluded that a moderate swirling effect can effectively suppress the hysteresis and bistability.

Graphical abstract
Detection of upper limb abrupt gestures for human–machine interaction using deep learning techniques
Authors: Digo Elisa , Polito Michele , Pastorelli Stefano , Gastaldi Laura
Published: March 2024

In the manufacturing industry the productivity is contingent on the workers’ well-being, with operators at the center of the production process. Moreover, when human–machine interaction occurs, operators’ safety is a key requirement. Generally, typical human gestures in manipulation tasks have repetitive kinetics, however external disturbances or environmental factors might provoke abrupt gestures, leading to improper interaction with the machine. The identification and characterization of these abrupt events has not yet been thoroughly studied. Accordingly, the aim of the current research was to define a methodology to ready identify human abrupt movements in a workplace, where manipulation activities are carried out. Five subjects performed three times a set of 30 standard pick-and-place tasks paced at 20 bpm, wearing magneto-inertial measurement units (MIMUs) on their wrists. Random visual and acoustic alarms triggered abrupt movements during standard gestures. The recorded signals were processed by segmenting each pick-and-place cycle. The distinction between standard and abrupt gestures was performed through a recurrent neural network applied to acceleration signals. Four different pre-classification methodologies were implemented to train the neural network and the resulting confusion matrices were compared. The outcomes showed that appropriate preprocessing of the data allows more effective training of the network and shorter classification time, enabling to achieve accuracy greater than 99% and F1-score better than 90%.
Elastic Stable Intramedullary Nailing Versus Plate Internal Fixation for Pediatric Diaphyseal Femur Fractures: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis
Authors: Liu Wanlin , Li Wenqiang , Bai Rui , Xu Xiangyu , Zhao Zhenqun , Wang Yan
Published: March 2024

Background

Elastic stable intramedullary nailing (ESIN) and plates are currently the main internal fixation for treating Pediatric Diaphyseal Femur Fractures (PDFF), and the optimal choice of internal fixation is controversial. The purpose of this meta-analysis is to compare the surgical outcomes and complications of the two fixation methods.

Materials and Methods

MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library were systematically searched for studies published up to March, 2023, that compared ESIN and plate fixation techniques for treating PDFF. Pooled analysis identified differences in surgical outcomes between ESIN and plate, mainly regarding surgical outcomes and postoperative complications, such as time at surgery, fracture healing time, blood loss and related complications.

Results

We included 10 studies with 775 patients with PDFF in our review. Of these, 428 and 347 were treated with ESIN and Plate, respectively. In terms of postoperative complications, ESIN led to a shorter surgery time [MD = − 28.93, 95% CI (− 52.88 to − 4.98), P < 0.05], less blood loss [MD = − 66.94, 95% CI (− 87.79 to − 46.10), P < 0.001] and more fracture healing time [MD = 2.65, 95% CI (1.22–4.07), P < 0.001]. In terms of postoperative complications, ESIN led to fewer fections (RR = 0.77, 95% CI 0.37, 1.60, P = 0.48), fewer angulation deformities (RR = 0.80, 95% CI 0.35, 1.83, P = 0.60) and more prominent implants (RR = 3.36, 95% CI 1.88, 6.01, P < 0.001), more delayed unions (RR = 4.06, 95% CI 0.71, 23.06, P = 0.11).

Conclusions

ESIN and Plate have similar rates of complications besides a prominent implant rate, while ESIN has a shorter period of operation and less intraoperative bleeding. Although both options are suitable, the results of this study support the use of ESIN rather than plates in the treatment of PDFF in terms of complication rates. In clinical applications, surgeons should choose the appropriate treatment method according to the actual situation.
Hellenistic Athletes
Authors: Scharff Sebastian
Published: March 2024

This is a study of Hellenistic athletics from the perspective of the victors. By analyzing agonistic epigrams as poetry on commission, it investigates how successful athletes and horse owners and their sponsors wanted their victories to be understood. Based on the identification of recurring motifs that exceed the conventions of the genre, a multiplicity of agonistic cultures is detected on three different levels – those of the polis, the region and the empire. Kings and queens used athletics in order to legitimate their rule, cities tried to compensate for military defeats by agonistic successes, and victorious aristocrats created virtual halls of fame to emphasize their common regional identity. Without a doubt, athletic victories represented far more than just leisure activities of Hellenistic noblemen. They clearly mattered in terms of politics and social status.
Satellite NO2 Trends and Hotspots Over Offshore Oil and Gas Operations in the Gulf of Mexico
Authors: Fedkin Niko M. , Stauffer Ryan M. , Thompson Anne M. , Kollonige Debra E. , Wecht Holli D. , Elguindi Nellie
Published: March 2024

The Outer Continental Shelf of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is populated with numerous oil and natural gas (ONG) platforms which produce NOx (NOx = NO + NO2), a major component of air pollution. The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) is mandated to ensure that the air quality of coastal states is not degraded by these emissions. As part of a NASA‐BOEM collaboration, we conducted a satellite data‐based analysis of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) patterns and trends in the GOM. Data from the OMI and TROPOMI sensors were used to obtain 18+ year records of tropospheric column (TrC) NO2 in three GOM regions: (a) Houston urban area, (b) near shore area off the Louisiana coast, and a (c) deepwater area off the Louisiana coast. The 2004–2022 time series show a decreasing trend for the urban (−0.027 DU/decade) and near shore (−0.0022 DU/decade) areas, and an increasing trend (0.0019 DU/decade) for the deepwater area. MERRA‐2 wind and TROPOMI NO2 data were used to reveal several NO2 hotspots (up to 25% above background values) under calm wind conditions near individual platforms. The NO2 signals from these deepwater platforms and the high density of shallow water platforms closer to shore were confirmed by TrC NO2 anomalies of up to 10%, taking into account the monthly TrC NO2 climatology over the GOM. The results presented in this study establish a baseline for future estimates of emissions from the ONG hotspots and provide a methodology for analyzing NO2 measurements from the new geostationary TEMPO instrument.
Impact of Direct Radar Reflectivity Data Assimilation on the Simulation of Mesoscale Descending Inflow and Secondary Eyewall Formation in Hurricane Matthew (2016)
Authors: Li Tsung‐Han , Wang Xuguang , Lu Xu
Published: March 2024

The impact of assimilating ground‐based radar reflectivity on the rainband structure and secondary eyewall formation (SEF) of Hurricane Matthew (2016) is investigated within the framework of the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting model and its hybrid three‐dimensional ensemble‐variational data assimilation (DA) system. Compared to the control experiment (no radar reflectivity DA), the radar reflectivity DA experiment shows a clear signal of concentric eyewall and eyewall replacement cycle. Results demonstrate that radar reflectivity DA improves the stratiform rainband analysis, resulting in the mid‐level cooling associated with mesoscale descending inflow (MDI). The MDI further contributes to the low‐level acceleration maximum with boundary layer dynamics and triggers new convective updrafts in the SEF region. Momentum budget analysis also suggests that the mean vertical advection of absolute angular momentum plays an important role in the local momentum tendency in the SEF region in Hurricane Matthew (2016).
Regime Shifts in Lake Oxygen and Temperature in the Rapidly Warming High Arctic
Authors: Klanten Yohanna , MacIntyre Sally , Fitzpatrick Cameron , Vincent Warwick F. , Antoniades Dermot
Published: March 2024

Global warming is destabilizing the cryosphere, with consequences for glaciers, permafrost, sea ice and lake ice. Polar lakes have short ice‐free seasons, and small changes in ice cover duration have the potential to provoke alterations to ecosystem structure. However, these lakes are understudied, and the consequences for mixing regimes, thermal structures and biogeochemical processes remain unclear. We measured three annual cycles of dissolved oxygen, temperature and specific conductivity in a lake at ∼83°N to investigate limnological processes and their interannual variability. There were sharp interannual contrasts in lake dynamics, with state shifts in mixing, stratification and oxygen regimes due to air temperature variability and meteorological events. We also observed unusual thermal profiles that were associated with solute gradients. These striking differences underscore the sensitivity of high Arctic lakes to interannual variations in meteorological forcing, and their susceptibility to regime shifts in response to ongoing global change.
Sediment Freeze‐On and Transport Near the Onset of a Fast‐Flowing Glacier in East Antarctica
Authors: Franke Steven , Wolovick Michael , Drews Reinhard , Jansen Daniela , Matsuoka Kenichi , Bons Paul D.
Published: March 2024

Understanding the material properties and physical conditions of basal ice is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of Antarctic ice‐sheet dynamics. Yet, direct data are sparse and difficult to acquire. Here, we employ ultra‐wideband radar to map high‐backscatter zones near the glacier bed within East Antarctica's Jutulstraumen drainage basin. Our backscatter analysis reveals that the basal ice in an area of ∼10,000 km2 is composed of along‐flow oriented sediment‐laden basal ice units connected to the basal substrate, extending up to several hundred meters thick. Three‐dimensional thermomechanical modeling supports that these units form via basal freeze‐on of subglacial water that originated from further upstream. Our findings suggest that basal freeze‐on, and the entrainment and transport of subglacial material play a significant role in an accurate representation of material, physical, and rheological properties of the Antarctic ice sheet's basal ice, ultimately enhancing the accuracy and reliability of ice‐sheet modeling.
The Impact of Serial Cyclone Clustering on Extremely High Sea Levels in the Baltic Sea
Authors: Rantanen Mika , van den Broek Daan , Cornér Joona , Sinclair Victoria A. , Johansson Milla M. , Särkkä Jani , Laurila Terhi K. , Jylhä Kirsti
Published: March 2024

In the Baltic Sea, sea level variations are often very pronounced. During the winter season, storm surges caused by strong extratropical cyclones (ETCs) can have major societal impacts on coastal cities. In this study, using reanalysis‐based cyclone tracks and in‐situ tide gauge records, we show that serial cyclone clustering (SCC) leads to higher sea levels in the Baltic Sea than situations where only one ETC passes the tide gauge. Consequently, almost half of extreme sea level events in the Baltic Sea are associated with cyclone clustering periods. For example, in Helsinki, 45% of the extreme sea level events coincided with SCC periods of three or more ETCs, while only 6% of the events coincided with a single ETC. Our study represents a significant advance in the understanding of the factors influencing sea level variations in the Baltic Sea.
Slow Slip Events in New Zealand: Irregular, yet Predictable?
Authors: Truttmann S. , Poulet T. , Wallace L. , Herwegh M. , Veveakis M.
Published: March 2024

Current earthquake forecasting approaches are mainly based on probabilistic assumptions, as earthquakes seem to occur randomly. Such apparent randomness can however be caused by deterministic chaos, rendering deterministic short‐term forecasts possible. Due to the short historical and instrumental record of earthquakes, chaos detection has proven challenging, but more frequently occurring slow slip events (SSE) are promising candidates to probe for determinism. Here, we characterize the SSE signatures obtained from GNSS position time series in the Hikurangi Subduction Zone (New Zealand) to investigate whether the seemingly random SSE occurrence is governed by chaotic determinism. We find evidence for deterministic chaos for stations recording shallow SSEs, suggesting that short‐term deterministic forecasting of SSEs, similar to weather forecasts, might indeed be possible over timescales of a few weeks. We anticipate that our findings could open the door for next‐generation SSE forecasting, adding new tools to existing probabilistic approaches.
Along‐Strike Variations of Alaska Subduction Zone Structure and Hydration Determined From Amphibious Seismic Data
Authors: Li Zongshan , Wiens Douglas A. , Shen Weisen , Shillington Donna J.
Published: March 2024

We develop a 3‐D isotropic shear velocity model for the Alaska subduction zone using data from seafloor and land‐based seismographs to investigate along‐strike variations in structure. By applying ambient noise and teleseismic Helmholtz tomography, we derive Rayleigh wave group and phase velocity dispersion maps, then invert them for shear velocity structure using a Bayesian Monte Carlo algorithm. For land‐based stations, we perform a joint inversion of receiver functions and dispersion curves. The forearc crust is relatively thick (35–42 km) and has reduced lower crustal velocities beneath the Kodiak and Semidi segments, which may promote higher seismic coupling. Bristol Bay Basin crust is relatively thin and has a high‐velocity lower layer, suggesting a dense mafic lower crust emplaced by the rifting processes. The incoming plate shows low uppermost mantle velocities, indicating serpentinization. This hydration is more pronounced in the Shumagin segment, with greater velocity reduction extending to 18 ± 3 km depth, compared to the Semidi segment, showing smaller reductions extending to 14 ± 3 km depth. Our estimates of percent serpentinization from VS reduction and VP/VS are larger than those determined using VP reduction in prior studies, likely due to water in cracks affecting VS more than VP. Revised estimates of serpentinization show that more water subducts than previous studies, and that twice as much mantle water is subducted in the Shumagin segment compared to the Semidi segment. Together with estimates from other subduction zones, the results indicate a wide variation in subducted mantle water between different subduction segments.
Evaluation of Retrospective National Water Model Soil Moisture and Streamflow for Drought‐Monitoring Applications
Authors: Hughes M. , Jackson D. L. , Unruh D. , Wang H. , Hobbins M. , Ogden F. L. , Cifelli R. , Cosgrove B. , DeWitt D. , Dugger A. , Ford T. W. , Fuchs B. , Glaudemans M. , Gochis D. , Quiring S. M. , RafieeiNasab A. , Webb R. S. , Xia Y. , Xu L.
Published: March 2024

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)’s National Water Model (NWM) provides analyses and predictions of hydrologic variables relevant to drought monitoring and forecasts at fine time and space scales (hourly, 0.25–1 km). We present results exploring the potential for NWM soil moisture and streamflow analyses to inform operational drought monitoring. Both agricultural and hydrologic drought monitoring rely either explicitly or implicitly on an accurate representation of anomalous soil moisture values. Much of our analysis focuses on comparisons of soil moisture anomalies in the NWM to those from in‐situ observations. To establish benchmarks for NWM soil moisture skill, we also include other gridded data sets currently used to inform the US Drought Monitor, specifically those from the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS‐2) land surface models. We then compare NWM streamflow low flows with ∼500 stream gauges from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Hydro‐Climatic Data Network of undisturbed basins. The NWM soil moisture simulation’s skill parallels that from NLDAS‐2. The accuracy of drought condition identification from NWM streamflow exceeds that based on soil moisture as determined by Critical Success Index scores for extreme dry percentiles. Different meteorological forcings are used in the operational NWM cycles than those used in this retrospective analysis. This forcing disconnect, together with concerns about current‐generation land surface model soil moisture‐transport schemes, inhibit its current operational use for drought monitoring.
Interannual Variability of August Precipitation in China Associated With the Antarctic Sea Ice Anomaly
Authors: Xiao Chunyan , Duan Anmin , Wu Guoxiong , Tang Yuheng , Peng Yuzhuo , Hu Die
Published: March 2024

Through observational analysis and atmospheric simulation experiments, the relationship between sea ice in the region of South Pole and August precipitation in China was determined. Results indicate that the leading mode of August precipitation in China is significantly correlated with July sea ice concentration (SIC) in South Pole, specifically in eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) region. Typically, the SIC growth is followed by positive rainfall anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin (YRB) and Northeast China (NEC), while South China (SC) is under the control of negative rainfall anomalies. Precisely, owing to the temporal persistence of sea ice in the South Polar region from May to August, sea ice anomalies exert a strong influence on August atmospheric stability in EIO of Southern Hemisphere via regulating turbulent heat flux and air temperature anomalies. As SIC increases, the atmospheric circulation in horizontal exhibits the characteristics of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) positive phase, affecting the zonal wind anomalies. Subsequently, the anomalous circulation with a barotropic structure propagates to Australia and the East Asian via the strengthened vertical meridional cells and zonal winds. Moreover, numerical simulations confirm that due to the growth of South Polar sea ice in EIO, abnormal cyclone and anticyclone appear over North China and SC respectively, together with the moisture converging anomalies in the middle and lower reaches of YRB, and diverging anomalies in SC. Accordingly, these atmospheric circulation anomalies triggered by Antarctic sea ice conducive to a wet (dry) August in northern (southern) China.
A Microphysical Thermal Model for the Lunar Regolith: Investigating the Latitudinal Dependence of Regolith Properties
Authors: Bürger Johanna , Hayne Paul O. , Gundlach Bastian , Läuter Matthias , Kramer Tobias , Blum Jürgen
Published: March 2024

The microphysical structure of the lunar regolith provides information on the geologic history of the Moon. We used remote sensing measurements of thermal emission and a thermophysical model to determine the microphysical properties of the lunar regolith. We expand upon previous investigations by developing a microphysical thermal model, which more directly simulates regolith properties, such as grain size and volume filling factor. The modeled temperatures are matched with surface temperatures measured by the Diviner Lunar Radiometer Experiment on board the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter. The maria and highlands are investigated separately and characterized in the model by a difference in albedo and grain density. We find similar regolith temperatures for both terrains, which can be well described by similar volume filling factor profiles and mean grain sizes obtained from returned Apollo samples. We also investigate a significantly lower thermal conductivity for highlands, which formally also gives a very good solution, but in a parameter range that is well outside the Apollo data. We then study the latitudinal dependence of regolith properties up to ±80° latitude. When assuming constant regolith properties, we find that a variation of the solar incidence‐dependent albedo can reduce the initially observed latitudinal gradient between model and Diviner measurements significantly. A better match between measurements and model can be achieved by a variation in intrinsic regolith properties with a decrease in bulk density with increasing latitude. We find that a variation in grain size alone cannot explain the Diviner measurements at higher latitudes.
Mapping Permafrost Variability and Degradation Using Seismic Surface Waves, Electrical Resistivity, and Temperature Sensing: A Case Study in Arctic Alaska
Authors: Tourei Ahmad , Ji Xiaohang , Rocha dos Santos Gabriel , Czarny Rafal , Rybakov Sergei , Wang Ziyi , Hallissey Matthew , Martin Eileen R. , Xiao Ming , Zhu Tieyuan , Nicolsky Dmitry , Jensen Anne
Published: March 2024

Subsurface processes significantly influence surface dynamics in permafrost regions, necessitating utilizing diverse geophysical methods to reliably constrain permafrost characteristics. This research uses multiple geophysical techniques to explore the spatial variability of permafrost in undisturbed tundra and its degradation in disturbed tundra in Utqiaġvik, Alaska. Here, we integrate multiple quantitative techniques, including multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW), electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and ground temperature sensing, to study heterogeneity in permafrost’s geophysical characteristics. MASW results reveal active layer shear wave velocities (Vs) between 240 and 370 m/s, and permafrost Vs between 450 and 1,700 m/s, typically showing a low‐high‐low velocity pattern. Additionally, we find an inverse relationship between in situ Vs and ground temperature measurements. The Vs profiles along with electrical resistivity profiles reveal cryostructures such as cryopeg and ice‐rich zones in the permafrost layer. The integrated results of MASW and ERT provide valuable information for characterizing permafrost heterogeneity and cryostructure. Corroboration of these geophysical observations with permafrost core samples’ stratigraphies and salinity measurements further validates these findings. This combination of geophysical and temperature sensing methods along with permafrost core sampling confirms a robust approach for assessing permafrost’s spatial variability in coastal environments. Our results also indicate that civil infrastructure systems such as gravel roads and pile foundations affect permafrost by thickening the active layer, lowering the Vs, and reducing heterogeneity. We show how the resulting Vs profiles can be used to estimate key parameters for designing buildings in permafrost regions and maintaining existing infrastructure in polar regions.
Spatial‐Temporal Differentiation of Supra‐ and Sub‐Permafrost Groundwater Contributions to River Runoff in the Eurasian Arctic and Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau Permafrost Regions
Authors: Wang Zhiwei , Sun Shouqin , Wang Genxu , Song Chunlin
Published: March 2024

Supra‐ and sub‐permafrost groundwater are the two main components of groundwater in permafrost regions. However, due to the lack of groundwater observational data, the spatial‐temporal differentiation of these groundwater components in permafrost basins remains unclear. Based on flow data from 17 hydrological stations in five permafrost rivers within the Eurasian Arctic and Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau permafrost regions, this study tries to determine the proportion of supra‐ and sub‐permafrost groundwater through the corresponding relationship between baseflow separation and baseflow index. The results showed that the annual average contribution of supra‐ and sub‐permafrost groundwater in river runoff to total streamflow in the Yangtze River source basin was 36.81% and 14.56%, respectively. Correspondingly, the Yellow River source basin was 36.58% and 24.46%, the Ob River basin was 37.05% and 26.83%, the Yenisei River basin was 28.80% and 36.56%, and the Lena River basin was 39.13% and 9.54%. Over the past 50–80 years, the ratio of sub‐permafrost groundwater discharge to river runoff and the flux of sub‐permafrost groundwater have shown an increasing trend in all study basins, which was significantly affected by air temperature and permafrost area. Relative contribution of supra‐permafrost groundwater exhibits a significant positive correlation with precipitation and permafrost area. Air temperature has both positive and negative effects on supra‐permafrost groundwater discharge, leading to a rising or falling trend of supra‐permafrost groundwater discharge. In the future, it is necessary to further explore the complex effects of groundwater discharge variations on streamflow in permafrost regions under climate warming.