bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Time evolution of temperature profiles retrieved from 13 years of infrared atmospheric sounding interferometer (IASI) data using an artificial neural network
Authors: Bouillon Marie , Safieddine Sarah , Whitburn Simon , Clarisse Lieven , Aires Filipe , Pellet Victor , Lezeaux Olivier , Scott Noëlle A. , Doutriaux-Boucher Marie , Clerbaux Cathy
Published: March 2022

Abstract. The three infrared atmospheric sounding interferometers
(IASIs), launched in 2006, 2012, and 2018, are key instruments to weather
forecasting, and most meteorological centres assimilate IASI nadir radiance
data into atmospheric models to feed their forecasts. The European Organisation for the Exploitation of
Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT)
recently released a reprocessed homogeneous radiance record for the whole
IASI observation period, from which 13 years (2008–2020) of
temperature profiles can be obtained. In this work, atmospheric temperatures
at different altitudes are retrieved from IASI radiances measured in the
carbon dioxide absorption bands (654–800 and 2250–2400 cm−1)
by selecting the channels that are the most sensitive to the temperature at
different altitudes. We rely on an artificial neural network (ANN) to
retrieve atmospheric temperatures from a selected set of IASI radiances. We
trained the ANN with IASI radiances as input and the European Centre for
Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) as
output. The retrieved temperatures were validated with ERA5, with in situ
radiosonde temperatures from the Analysed RadioSoundings Archive (ARSA)
network and with EUMETSAT temperatures retrieved from IASI radiances using a
different method. Between 750 and 7 hPa, where IASI is most sensitive to
temperature, a good agreement is observed between the three datasets: the
differences between IASI on one hand and ERA5, ARSA, or EUMETSAT on the
other hand are usually less than 0.5 K at these altitudes. At 2 hPa, as the
IASI sensitivity decreases, we found differences up to 2 K between IASI and
the three validation datasets. We then computed atmospheric temperature
linear trends from atmospheric temperatures between 750 and 2 hPa. We found
that in the past 13 years, there is a general warming trend of the
troposphere that is more important at the poles and at mid-latitudes (0.5 K/decade at mid-latitudes, 1 K/decade at the North Pole). The stratosphere
is globally cooling on average, except at the South Pole as a result of the
ozone layer recovery and a sudden stratospheric warming in 2019. The cooling
is most pronounced in the equatorial upper stratosphere (−1 K/decade). This
work shows that ANN can be a powerful and simple tool to retrieve IASI
temperatures at different altitudes in the upper troposphere and in the
stratosphere, allowing us to construct a homogeneous and consistent
temperature data record adapted to trend analysis.
Passive ground-based remote sensing of radiation fog
Authors: Guy Heather , Turner David D. , Walden Von P. , Brooks Ian M. , Neely Ryan R.
Published: March 2022

Abstract. Accurate boundary layer temperature and humidity profiles are crucial for successful forecasting of fog, and accurate retrievals of liquid water path are important for understanding the climatological significance of fog. Passive ground-based remote sensing systems such as microwave radiometers (MWRs) that have multiple channels between 22–31 GHz and 51–59 GHz, and infrared spectrometers such as the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI) which measures spectrally resolved infrared radiation (3.3 to 19.2 μm) can retrieve both thermodynamic profiles and liquid water path. Both instruments are capable of long-term unattended operation and have the potential to support operational forecasting. Here we compare physical retrievals of boundary layer thermodynamic profiles and liquid water path during 13 cases of supercooled radiation fog from a MWR and an AERI collocated in central Greenland. We compare both sets of retrievals to in-situ measurements from radiosondes and surface-based temperature and humidity sensors. The retrievals based on AERI observations accurately capture shallow surface-based temperature inversions (0–10 m a.g.l) with lapse rates of up to -1.2 °C m−1, whereas the strength of the surface-based temperature inversions retrieved from MWR observations are uncorrelated with in-situ measurements. For all but one case study, the retrievals based on AERI observations detect fog onset (defined by a threshold in liquid water path) earlier than those based on MWR observations by up to 4 hours. We propose that due to the high sensitivity of the AERI instrument to near-surface temperature and small changes in liquid water path, the AERI (or an equivalent infrared spectrometer) could be a useful instrument for improving fog monitoring and nowcasting.
Soil geochemistry as a driver of soil organic matter composition: insights from a soil chronosequence
Authors: Mainka Moritz , Summerauer Laura , Wasner Daniel , Garland Gina , Griepentrog Marco , Berhe Asmeret Asefaw , Doetterl Sebastian
Published: March 2022

Abstract. A central question in carbon research is how
stabilization mechanisms in soil change over time with soil development and
how this is reflected in qualitative changes in soil organic matter (SOM).
To address this matter, we assessed the influence of soil geochemistry on
bulk SOM composition along a soil chronosequence in California, USA, spanning
3 million years. This was done by combining data on soil mineralogy and
texture from previous studies with additional measurements on total carbon
(C), stable isotope values (δ13C and δ15N), and
spectral information derived from diffuse reflectance infrared
Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS). To assess qualitative shifts in
bulk SOM, we analysed the peak areas of simple plant-derived (S-POM),
complex plant-derived (C-POM), and predominantly microbial-derived organic matter (OM; MOM) and their changes in abundance across soils with several millennia
to millions of years of weathering and soil development. We observed that
SOM became increasingly stabilized and microbial-derived (lower C : N ratio,
increasing δ13C and δ15N) as soil weathering
progressed. Peak areas of S-POM (i.e. aliphatic root exudates) did not
change over time, while peak areas of C-POM (lignin) and MOM (components of
microbial cell walls (amides, quinones, and ketones)) increased over time
and depth and were closely related to clay content and pedogenic iron
oxides. Hence, our study suggests that with progressing soil development,
SOM composition co-varied with changes in the mineral matrix. Our study
indicates that structurally more complex OM compounds (C-POM, MOM) play an
increasingly important role in soil carbon stabilization mechanisms as the
mineral soil matrix becomes increasingly weathered.
The evolution of future Antarctic surface melt using PISM-dEBM-simple
Authors: Garbe Julius , Zeitz Maria , Krebs-Kanzow Uta , Winkelmann Ricarda
Published: March 2022

With a volume of 58 m sea-level equivalent, the Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest potential source of future sea-level rise under global warming. While the ice sheet gains mass through snowfall at the surface, it loses mass through dynamic discharge and iceberg calving into the ocean, as well as by melting at the surface and underneath its floating ice shelves.

Already today, Antarctica is contributing to sea-level rise. So far, this contribution has been comparatively modest, but is expected to increase in the future. Most of the current mass losses are concentrated in the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, mainly caused by sub-shelf melting and ice discharge. Because air temperatures are low and thus surface melt rates are small, any significant melting at the surface is restricted to the low-elevation coastal zones. At the same time, most of the mass loss is offset by snowfall, which is projected to further increase in a warming atmosphere.

As warming progresses over the coming centuries, the question arises as to how long the mass losses on the one side will be compensated by the gains on the other. In 21st-century projections, increasing surface mass balance is outweighing increased discharge even under strong warming scenarios. However, in long-term (multi-century to millennium scale) warming simulations the positive surface mass balance trend shows a peak and subsequent reversal. Owing to positive feedbacks, like the surface-elevation or the ice-albedo feedback, this effect can be enhanced once a surface lowering is triggered or the surface reflectivity is lowered by initial melt.

Here, we implement a simplified version of the diurnal Energy Balance Model (dEBM-simple) as a surface module in the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM), which extends the conventional positive-degree-day (PDD) approach to include the influence of solar radiation and parameterizes the ice albedo as a function of melting, implicitly accounting for the ice-albedo feedback.

Using a model sensitivity ensemble, we analyze the range of possible surface mass balance evolutions over the 21st century as well as in long-term simulations based on extended end-of-century climatological conditions with the coupled model. The comparison with the PDD approach hints to a strong overestimation of surface melt rates of the latter, even under present day conditions. The dEBM-simple further allows us to disentangle the respective contributions of temperature- and insolation-driven surface melt to future sea level rise.
Learning from subsurface migration profiles of an artificial radionuclide during a volatile migration period
Authors: Yasumiishi Misa , Nishimura Taku
Published: March 2022

Artificial radionuclides emitted into the environment have become tools to understand the physical processes in the last half-century and model future geophysical phenomena. In the case of a high contamination event such as a nuclear accident, it is challenging to capture the three-dimensional subsurface migration behavior of radionuclides during the most dynamic and crucial period shortly after the initial fallout because of the risk to human observers. Thus, geophysical models often rely on stabilized radionuclides, hypothesizing the radionuclide mobility in the initial phase. This study aims to demonstrate the rapid changes of vertical profiles of Cs-137 in short years after initial depositions, using soil samples collected in a forest and on abandoned farmland in Fukushima, Japan, five to seven years after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident in 2011.

The subsurface migration profiles, including the actual migration head depth of Cs-137, were examined against local topographic indices. Some of the preliminary results show that actual subsurface migration of the FDNPP-derived Cs-137 was equal to or deeper than 30 cm depth in nine forest soil samples; the confirmed deepest migration was at 38 cm. Meanwhile, the actual migration depths in abandoned crop fields were less than 15 cm. Along a 500 m hillslope, deposition was observed at five locations. The interaction of the timing of deposition and erosion depths was deciphered from Cs-137 vertical profiles and surrounding topography. The findings from this study demonstrate the implications of radionuclides behavior during a dynamic migration period to natural and artificial environmental radioactivity analysis. To accurately estimate the activities of radionuclides years later, these initial losses and gains of target radionuclides in the soil need to be considered with temporal progress, along with nuclear decay.
Interaction effects of climate change and disturbance regimes on high latitude forest dynamics
Authors: Layritz Lucia S. , Gregor Konstantin , Krause Andreas , Meyer Ben , Pugh Thomas A.M. , Rammig Anja
Published: March 2022

Ecosystem disturbances such as wildfires, storms or insect outbreaks are important elements of forest dynamics. As a changing and more extreme climate is expected to lead to an increase in such disturbances in many places, they have to be considered in coupled land surface – atmosphere dynamics.

Next to releasing large pulses of carbon to the atmosphere through large-scale forest mortality, disturbances can also play an important role in catalyzing or enhancing ecosystem state shifts. In the boreal zone, results from field and landscape modeling studies indicate that disturbances drive transient or permanent shifts from needleleaf evergreen to broadleaf deciduous species. While such changes are also visible in biome-wide simulations, the role of disturbances therein remains open.

We here investigate the impact of changing disturbance regimes on the species composition of the boreal zone under climate change. We perform simulations with the Dynamic Global Vegetation Model LPJ-GUESS, which allows simulating disturbances and post-disturbance recovery through its representation of vegetation demographics and patch dynamics. We combine varying rates of stylized disturbances with different climate scenarios to create controlled simulation experiments of changing climate, changing disturbance regimes and their interactions.

Our simulations reproduce findings from previous studies and theory, with increasing disturbance rates leading to higher shares of deciduous trees in areas where they would be negligible in the absence of disturbance. We further investigate if these changes represent (1) a transient state of early-successional species that disappears again once disturbance pressure is lifted or (2) a stable reorganization of the ecosystem towards a deciduous-dominated forest.
On the relationship of primary productivity and remotely sensed canopy biophysical variables 
Authors: Darvishzadeh Roshanak , Nienavaz Elnaz , Huesca Margarita , Skidmore Andrew , Nieuwenhuis Willem , Fernandez Nestor , Wårlind David
Published: March 2022

Canopy biophysical properties play an important role in understanding forest health and productivity. Among these parameters, forest leaf area index (LAI), canopy cover fraction, and canopy chlorophyll content describe the vegetation abundance, photosynthetic capacity and primary productivity of forest stands. The new generation of remote sensing satellites such as Sentinel-2 with high spatial and temporal resolutions has provided vast opportunities for monitoring these parameters and assessing their interrelationships over vast forest landscapes. In this research, temporal Sentinel-2 data between 2017-2019 in the temperate mixed forest ecosystem of the Bavarian Forest National Park, Germany, was used to retrieve forest canopy biophysical variables. INFORM radiative transfer model was used to retrieve LAI and canopy chlorophyll content while the fraction of vegetation functional types were calculated using phenological parameters and empirical approaches. A recent landcover map of the Bavarian Forest National Park was applied to retrieve considered variables pursuant to the different land cover classes. The retrieved variables were validated using in situ measurements of LAI and canopy chlorophyll content. Primary productivity was then calculated using (i) vegetation index universal pattern decomposition approach and (ii) the process-based dynamic vegetation-terrestrial ecosystem model LPJ-GUESS model. The relationships between calculated productivities and estimated biophysical variables were then studied. Our results showed that there is a good agreement between primary productivities calculated from LPG GUESS and the decomposition approach. Among studied parameters, canopy chlorophyll content, which represents pigments and vegetation abundance within the canopy, showed a strong direct relationship with both calculated primary productivities and hence may be used to explain plant functioning. Our results also revealed that remotely sensed vegetation biophysical parameters- that are becoming more and more readily available due to the availability of Earth observation data- can be used as proxies for estimation of the primary productivity calculated using either approach. Calculation of primary productivity usually needs information about canopy life-cycle and geometry, which are often not available at large scales. The results of our study support our findings in the myVARIABLE pilot of the EuroGEOSS Showcases initiative (e-shape) on developing primary productivity as a remotely sensed- essential biodiversity variable describing ‘Ecosystem function.’
Cascadia 120 Slim Posthole: A Combined Strong and Weak Motion Sensor for Early Warning and Regional Networks
Authors: Hamilton Valarie , Parker Tim , Bainbridge Geoffrey , Wuthrich Daniela
Published: March 2022

Existing regional and EEW networks can be improved in data quality, providing more stations with unclipped continuous waveform observations and a uniform magnitude of completeness (Mc).  This is possible using upgraded deeper sensor emplacements and new instrumentation, based on a current understanding of system noise and updated equipment available today.  Station density is increasing with the EEW buildout, with a focus on minimizing latency, which also presents an opportunity to improve data quality for weak motion.  Mc and signal-to-noise ratio across the seismic and geodetic spectrum will be important for future OEF challenges and for hazard and science efforts such as 4D studies and the high resolution geophysical imaging of deep Earth structure.  Recent development of network Mc simulation code (Wilson et al., 2021) can be used to plan new networks, or infill stations to economically upgrade existing networks to these new best practices.  

An instrument system that provides high-gain weak motion data in precise alignment with strong motion data allows combined processing to create a seamless data set with maximum dynamic range.  The Nanometrics Cascadia 120 Slim Posthole has been designed to meet these requirements. Both weak and strong motion sensors are integrated in a single case which enables lowest system noise, unclipped observations, and precise coherence of signals between the weak and strong motion channels.  Cascadia 120 Slim and Cascadia Compact are deployed in networks now and we will present data showing the noise floor for weak motion, a seamless transition to strong motion, and high coherence between the two sensors for mid-sized events.

Authors: Valarie Hamilton, Geoffrey Bainbridge, Tim Parker, Daniela Wuthrich
Tipping phenomena and resilience of complex systems: Theory and applications to the earth system
Authors: Feudel Ulrike
Published: March 2022

Many systems in nature are characterized by the coexistence of different stable states for a given set of environmental parameters and external forcing. Examples for such behavior can be found in different fields of science ranging from mechanical or chemical systems to ecosystem and climate dynamics. As a consequence of the coexistence of a multitude of stable states, the final state of the system depends strongly on the initial condition.  Perturbations, applied to those natural systems can lead to critical transitions from one stable state to another. Such critical transitions are called tipping phenomena in climate science, regime shifts in ecology. They can happen in various ways: (1) due to bifurcations, i.e. changes in the dynamics when external forcing or parameters are varied extremely slow, (2) due to fluctuations which are always inevitable in natural systems, (3) due to rate-induced transitions, i.e. when external forcing changes on characteristic time scales comparable to the intrinsic time scale of the considered dynamical system and (4) due to shocks or extreme events. We discuss these critical transitions and their characteristics and illustrate them with examples from climate science and ecosystem dynamics. Moreover, we discuss the concept of resilience, which has been originally introduced by C.S. Holling in ecology, and formulate it in terms of dynamical systems theory. This formulation offers mathematical and numerical tools to use it as a measure of the persistence of a function of a dynamical system.
Preliminary results of irrigation impact on precipitation forecasts during the LIAISE-2021 field campaign
Authors: Bech Joan , Udina Mireia , Peinó Eric
Published: March 2022

The LIAISE (Land surface Interactions with the Atmosphere over the Iberian Semi-arid Environment) field campaign was designed to study the effects of irrigation on a semi-arid area in NE Spain  (Boone et al. 2019). Within the framework of LIAISE, the WISE-PreP project was conceived to examine precipitation processes, on the one hand collecting high resolution data using Parsivel disdrometers and Micro-Rain Radars complementing operational rain-gauge and C-band Doppler weather radar observations and on the other one, carrying out numerical simulations to improve our understanding of physical processes involved. In this presentation we explore the irrigation impact on precipitation in Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations during the intensive period of the LIAISE field campaign (15-30 July 2021). We quantify the precipitation accumulation and distribution by including the irrigation parameterization (Valmassoi et al 2020) and varying its parameters (days of irrigation, amount of irrigated water, hours of irrigation, etc.). First results indicate that fractional area of precipitation is greater if the irrigation parameterization is activated and if the irrigated amount is greater as well. Finally, we explore differences in stratiform vs convective fractions of precipitation. This work was partly funded by the project “Analysis of Precipitation Processes in the Eastern Ebro Subbasin” (WISE-PreP, RTI2018-098693-B-C32, MINECO/FEDER) and the Water Research Institute (IdRA) of the University of Barcelona.

References

Boone A, Best M, Cuxart J, Polcher J, Quintana P, Bellvert J, Brooke J, Canut-Rocafort G, Price J (2019). Land surface Interactions with the Atmosphere over the Iberian Semi-arid Environment (LIAISE). Gewex News, February 2019.

Valmassoi A, Dudhia J, Sabatino SD, Pilla F (2020). Evaluation of three new surface irrigation parameterizations in the WRF-ARW v3. 8.1 model: the Po Valley (Italy) case study. Geoscientific Model Development, 13(7), 3179-3201.
Impact analysis of surface water level and discharge from the new generation of altimetry observations
Authors: Fenoglio-Marc Luciana , Uyanik Hakan , Chen Jiaming , Kusche Jürgen
Published: March 2022

Surface water level and river discharge are key observables of the water cycle and among the most sensible indicators that integrate long-term change within a river basin. Satellite altimetry provides valuable information on water level variation in rivers, lakes and reservoirs and once combined with satellite imagery, river discharge and lake storage changes can be estimated. Over the last decade, a two-dimensional observational field is derived by merging innovative space and in-situ data. The new generation of spaceborne altimeters includes Delay Doppler since 2010 with CryoSat-2, laser technique since 2018 with ICESAT-2 and bistatic SAR altimeter techniques with SWOT planned to be launched late this year. This shows a potential for monitoring the impact of water use and to characterize climate change. The mission SWOT will provide river discharge innovatively derived from contemporaneous river slope, height and width observations.

Our hypothesis is that the new space missions provide (a) surface water levels of higher accuracy and resolution compared to previous altimetric and in-situ observations and (b) new parameters to estimate river discharge and water storage change. A better sampling of flood event detection and of the long-term evolution is expected. We discuss here methodology and applications for satellite altimetry in the fields of hydrology and consider the two open research questions: (1) How can we fully exploit the new missions to derive best estimates of water level and storage change and river discharge and (2) can we separate natural variability from human water use.

For the first goal, we derive a multi-sensor database in an automatic processing which identifies the virtual gauge location and constructs the water height and water extension time-series. Water heights of the official release and of enhanced processing in project Hydrocoastal and in-house are used. Discharge and storage change time-series are derived from hydraulic equations using water extension and slope. First river basin considered is the Rhine river basin, where we obtain at 20 virtual stations a mean accuracy of 15 cm comparing altimeter and river height data. The derived discharge agrees within 18% with the in-situ discharge estimate.

For the second goal, we study past and present discharge and storage change, which are responses to both anthropogenic (deforestation, land use change, urbanization, reservoirs) and natural (climate modes, climate variability, rainfall, glacier and snow melting) processes. We discuss potential and limitations of satellite altimetry constellations for monitor recent river extremes and long-term changes. The work is part of Collaborative Research Centre CRC1502 “Regional Climate Change: Disentangling the role of Land Use and water management” of the German Research Foundation DFG.
­Water Affordability Challenges in Urban Water Systems
Authors: Mussatayev Yeldar , Fazli Siamac
Published: March 2022

A vital prerequisite for the quality of living in settlements is uninterrupted access to water supply and sanitation. However, the affordability of users to be provided with drinking and wastewater services is challenging in developed and developing countries. Moreover, there is no broad understanding of the water affordability concept and how the tariffs of urban water systems are associated with different economic wealth indicators.

This study investigates water tariffs and affordability in global urban water and wastewater systems. Our data is compiled from the International Water Association (IWA) and the World Bank. This data covers over 60 countries and 190 cities in a time range from 2010 to 2019, divided by geography (Africa, Asia, Australia and Oceania, Europe, North America and South America) and income level (High, Upper Middle, Lower Middle and Low income).  In addition, information on water sources, delivery, consumption and tariffs for drinking water (including sewage), and financial indicators of the countries (minimum wage, average income, GDP, exchange rate to US dollar and others) are considered in this work.

Our analysis aims to answer the following research questions: Is it possible to find computational models to identify patterns that can understand the current situation and predict future outcomes of water affordability? If yes, to what degree is it possible and what are the limitations of this approach? Are there actual thresholds for sustainable water use in urban water systems? How can these be inferred from the data?

Our preliminary results and visualizations demonstrate a significant difference between developed and developing countries in the water supply and a lack of a single approach to tariff setting. Some countries could not collect reliable data for each year, complicating the study’s objectivity. As a result, the use of recognized and reliable algorithms to predict and fill in missing data could help complete the data and thus obtain a clear picture of the worldwide differences in water availability. Therefore, our study might be helpful to the scientific community in developing approaches to inequitable water allocation and economical water consumption.
Late Quaternary floods and their control on aggradation and incision in the Indus River, Ladakh Himalaya
Authors: Kumar Anil , Srivastava Pradeep , Devrani Rahul
Published: March 2022

Rivers in the Himalaya have extensively been used as a tool to understand the mechanism of valley aggradation and incision resulting due to precipitation variability and ongoing deformation. The suture zone tectonics control the landscape building along the upper Indus River, however, intensified monsoon encroaches on the region and modify the surface processes. The valley is filled with outwash fans and aggradation pulses at ~ 52 ka, ~ 28 ka and ~16 ka when the monsoon was strengthened. At the younger time, during ~13 to ~9 ka, the Indus valley has suffered an incision phase marked by exposure of bedrock near the Indus-Zanskar confluence.

The present study constrained the paleodischarge of the Indus River during periods of established river aggradation, incision and flood-time to understand climatic settings during the enhanced sediment-load modulated by the increased discharge. At the valley filling time (47–23 ka), clast geometric data of the largest imbricated clasts from the riverbed as well as the aggraded sequences were utilized to calculate discharges. Sand-silt couplets marked as slack water deposits (SWDs) of age 14–10 ka at Indus-Zanskar confluence were used to constrain the paleodischarges during net river incision. The catchment-scale paleodischarge derived from valley fill sequences and SWDs ranges from 834±47 to 4457±253 and 19030 to 47954 cumecs. Incision-time discharges were three to ten-fold higher than from the aggradation time observed that the aggradation in the Himalayan rivers occurred in transient time (33–21 ka and 17–14 ka) when the sediment load in the rivers increased just after the glaciation. Hence, the aggradation in the Indus River has occurred when the sediment to water ratio was higher and the river carrying capacity has reduced, subsequently, the incision was initiated when sediment to water ratio reduced and the river sediment carrying capacity increases during post-glacial climatically wet phase (early Holocene).
Sensitivity analysis and evaluation of ICON performance for the simulation of long-range atmospheric transport of POPs
Authors: Meza Landero Hiram Abif , Bieser Johannes , Ramacher Martin , Matthias Volker
Published: March 2022

Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs) from local and regional sources are often transported over long distances and constitute a severe environmental problem for decades to come. The increase of industrial production of chemical synthetic compounds for manufacturing and daily use products raised the environmental burden and human exposure of these pollutants, which often have toxic, carcinogenic, or endocrine properties. Therefore, it is necessary to identify major sources, pathways and sinks of POPs in order to estimate negative effects on humans.

In the presented study, we use a next generation atmospheric circulation model, the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic model (ICON), to investigate the long-range atmospheric transport of POPs. ICON is a global unstructured grid model in which we implemented transport of per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) as a first step towards the full range of POPs. The necessary PFAS emission sources for our simulations are taken from a newly developed global PFAS emission inventory for different compartments. The presented study is part of the McMEE project – ‘Multi Compartment Modeling- from Emission to Exposure’ where also the marine transport and transformation of PFAS and other POPs is included and will be coupled to the atmospheric simulations. Thus, the atmospheric modeling aspect is crucial for our research, due to the long lifetime of these substances, since they can be transported by large-scale circulation to reach remote regions such as the Arctic.

Besides the implementation of PFAS transport into ICON, we tested different model configurations including physical schemes, simulation periods and spin-off times to identify a suitable setup that can be capable of representing the transport of pollutants from regional to large scales, and long periods. Based on the evaluated modeling chain and the sensitivity tests performed, further developments towards the simulation of atmospheric chemistry and transport of other POPs are planned. Finally, the atmospheric simulations will be coupled to marine simulations in the McMEE project to identify the exposure of humans and the environment with POPs in different compartments.
Communicating Uncertainties in Bi- and Multivariate Distributions
Authors: Gräler Benedikt
Published: March 2022

Any model we use is an approximation of the real world and associated with some uncertainty about the transition of the model result into the real world. This issue is even stressed in situations where models are used to predict a set of variables over time. A prominent and widely used example are runs of climate models that generate ensembles of possible future paths of our climate including several correlated variables. Typically, these ensembles are presented and assessed in an univariate approach where e.g. spaghetti plots of single variables depict the variability within the future paths. What remains hidden are the dependencies among the variables. As the correlation measures might be ambiguous and summarize the possibly complex dependence structures in a single value, we use the concept of copulas to illustrate the variability of multivariate distributions. Going back to Sklar’s theorem any continuous multivariate distribution can be decomposed into its univariate margins and their copula describing the dependence between the univariate marginals. Copulas can serve two purposes in this context, to model and quantify i) the multivariate variability within the ensemble and ii) the variability in the dependence between the variables among the ensembles.

We illustrate the effect of different copula families on the inherent uncertainties in the ensemble based on synthetic data. Furthermore, we use climate predictions of the current century to identify and study the dependence and its variability in the data set. In order to increase the data and to avoid the expectation that we can do an assessment precisely for each year, the data is grouped by decades. Our approach is illustrated in R and an exploratory analysis is supported through an interactive Shiny application. The Shiny application also serves to communicate the multivariate uncertainty in the data.
The Relative Role of Temperature and Precipitation in Global Economic Growth
Authors: Leirvik Thomas , Yuan Menghan , Karabiyik Hande
Published: March 2022

Global warming has slowed economic growth and aggravated global economic inequality, affecting individual wellbeing in a wide-ranging aspects. Quantifying these historical impacts is critical for informing climate change mitigation and adaptation and achieving a more equitable economic development. This paper extends existing literature by exploring the effects of precipitation on economic growth. Based on a panel of 169 countries over the period 1961-2019, we demonstrate a statistically significant non-linear effect of precipitation on economic growth, such that output is maximized at around 2.03 metres of annual total precipitation. Despite of the significant sensitivity of precipitation, we find its impacts are relatively small and are completely overwhelmed by the effects of temperature. We examine the historical marginal effects of climate change and find realized temperature has lowered the annual global growth rate by 0.31 percentage points per year on average, whereas realized precipitation has increased the annual economic growth by roughly 0.01 percentage points. Furthermore, we highlight that countries endowed with different climate conditions exhibit substantially different reactions to historical climate change. For example, Europe and Central Asia countries have benefited both from temperature rising and precipitation fluctuations; while adverse impacts are observed for both factors in African countries. These findings suggest the importance of precipitation for countries with vulnerable ecosystems and inform the possibility of incorporating precipitation in economic development projections under future climate trajectories.
Comparison of the Anthropogenic Emission Inventory for CMIP6 Models with a Country-Level Inventory over China and the Simulations of the Aerosol Properties
Authors: Fan Tianyi , Liu Xiaohong , Wu Chenglai , Zhang Qiang , Zhao Chuanfeng , Yang Xin , Li Yanglian
Published: March 2022

Anthropogenic emission inventory for aerosols and reactive gases is crucial to the estimation of aerosol radiative
forcing and climate effects. Here, the anthropogenic emission inventory for AerChemMIP, endorsed by CMIP6, is briefly
introduced. The CMIP6 inventory is compared with a country-level inventory (i.e., MEIC) over China from 1986 to 2015.
Discrepancies are found in the yearly trends of the two inventories, especially after 2006. The yearly trends of the aerosol
burdens simulated by CESM2 using the two inventories follow their emission trends and deviate after the mid-2000s, while
the simulated aerosol optical depths (AODs) show similar trends. The difference between the simulated AODs is much
smaller than the difference between model and observation. Although the simulated AODs agree with the MODIS satellite
retrievals for country-wide average, the good agreement is an offset between the underestimation in eastern China and the
overestimation in western China. Low-biased precursor gas of SO2, overly strong convergence of the wind field, overly
strong dilution and transport by summer monsoon circulation, too much wet scavenging by precipitation, and overly weak
aerosol swelling due to low-biased relative humidity are suggested to be responsible for the underestimated AOD in eastern
China. This indicates that the influence of the emission inventory uncertainties on simulated aerosol properties can be
overwhelmed by model biases of meteorology and aerosol processes. It is necessary for climate models to perform
reasonably well in the dynamical, physical, and chemical processes that would influence aerosol simulations.
Bifurcating-Paths: the relation between preferential flow bifurcations, void, and tortuosity on the Darcy scale.
Authors: Edery Yaniv , Dagan Avioz
Published: March 2022

Darcy scale transport in porous media ranges between Fickian and non-Fickian according to the medium conductivity layout, which ranges between homogenous and heterogeneous. Yet, evidence shows that preferential flows that funnel and bypass even areas with high conductivity occur in heterogeneous and homogenous cases. We model the Darcy scale transport using a 2D conductivity field ranging from homogenous to heterogeneous and find that these preferential flow bifurcate, leaving voids where particles do not invade while forming a tortuous path. The fraction of bifurcations decreases downflow and reaches an asymptotical value, which scales as a power-law with the heterogeneity level. We show that the same power-law scaling holds for the void fraction, tortuosity, and fractal dimension analysis. We conclude that the scaling with the heterogeneity is the dominant feature in the preferential flow geometry, which will lead to variations in weighting times for the transport and eventually to anomalous transport.
Real-time prediction trace gases from the Fagradalsfjall volcanic eruption
Authors: Einarsson Páll , Rögnvaldsson Ólafur , Ólafsson Haraldur
Published: March 2022

During the Fagradalsfjall volcanic eruption in Iceland in 2021, the atmospheric flow was simulated at high-spatial and temporal resolutions with the numerical system WRF, including the WRF-Chem for the simulation of trace gases and aerosols.  The output of the real-time simulations of SO2 has been compared to observations, showing that on time-scales of 12-24 hours, the numerical system has considerable skill, but moving to temporal scales shorter than 6 hours leads to substantial drop in the model performance.  The data and the model output suggest that there may be strong long-lasting horizontal gradients in the trace gases and limited horizontal mixing at times, calling for a more dense network of monitoring of gases from the volcano.  Wind variability on the time scale of minutes up to few hours remains a challenge.
Continuous monitoring of Eh, pH and CE of a coastal multilayer alluvial aquifer under different dynamic conditions.
Authors: Folch Albert , Adan Alejandro , Martínez Laura , Luquot Linda , Goyetche Tybaud , Tur-Piedra Jose , Almillategui Bella , Carrera Jesús
Published: March 2022

Understanding the behavior of the freshwater-seawater interface and its dynamics is a key issue to characterize seawater intrusion (SWI) as well as submarine groundwater discharge (SGD). A new experimental site intensively monitored and characterized was constructed north of Barcelona city (Spain) to gain insights in both phenomena, their interaction and all processes taking place in coastal aquifers. The site comprises 22 piezometers located between 10 and 90 m from the coastline. 16 piezometers are organized in four nests of four partially penetrating piezometers (2 m screened) at different depths ranging between 10 and 25 m.

Previous studies indicated that the aquifer, which initially looked like a homogeneous unconfined aquifer 22 m thick, effectively behaves as a multi-aquifer and reactive system with freshwater discharging beneath saltwater at several depths. In order to improve understanding of the biogeochemical processes taking place in the aquifer and their dynamics, the 3 nests following a perpendicular line to the sea were equipped with specific sensors at all screened intervals (6, 12, 18 and 22 m depth). In each piezometer, Eh, electrical conductivity, pH, temperature and pressure was recorded at 15 minutes of temporal resolution. In this presentation we will show the initial results of several months of monitoring, which highlights different dynamics at different depths despite being a theoretically “homogeneous” alluvial aquifer.

 

Acknowledgments

This work was funded by the Spanish Government (grant no. PID2019-110212RB-C21 and PID2019-110212RB-C22) and the project TerraMar (grant no. ACA210/18/00007) of the Catalan Water Agency.
Post-solidification features in granite natural stone and implication for its possible use and re-use in construction
Authors: Prikryl Richard , Racek Martin , Natherova Vendula , Rimnacova Daniela , Prikrylova Jirina , Kucharova Aneta
Published: March 2022

Granitoids are among the most common rock types used in construction. Along with their typical dominant mineralogical composition and rock microfabric, these rocks contain numerous minor/accessory phases and microfabric features that can be attributed to post-solidification development associated with e.g. hydrothermal alteration (HA). HA can be manifested both by microcracking, and by discrete changes in mineralogical composition – e.g., alteration of more basic cores of plagioclases, recrystallization of quartz aggregates, and/or by formation of clay mineral fillings of microcracks. Additional changes can occur due to various decay processes, and interactions with other construction materials (such as mortars) and/or conservation agents. Current study aims to show how these changes can influence physical and mechanical properties specifically when considering granitic natural stone used in important load-bearing infrastructural structures such as bridges. This issue can be of great importance for structures where individual stone elements were re-used from older ones or for those structures which require current repair.
The effects of switching spatial scales on soil-based ecosystem services levels and patterns: a case study at the patch scale
Authors: Scammacca Ottone , Choquet Pauline , Gabrielle Benoit , Sauzet Ophélie , Michelin Joel , Garnier Patricia , Baveye Philippe , Montagne David
Published: March 2022

The ecosystem service (ES) framework can be a useful tool to support sustainable land management and policy-making through mapping and assessment tasks. Quantifying the effect of the spatial precision of input data mobilised for ES assessment and mapping is a relatively new but fundamental issue, particularly with soil data that are often unavailable or available only at very coarse resolutions. However, no studies deal with the impact of the precision of input soil data on soil related-ES assessment and mapping

This study focus on a French territory of 100 km2 and it examines the effect of increasing the spatial precision of soil data – at the 1:1,000,000, 1:250,000 and 1:50,000 scales – on the levels and the spatial patterns of four soil-related ES: the provision of biomass, the provision of water, the regulation of global climate and the regulation of water quality. The delivery of these services is finally analyzed according to multiple operational spatial units of aggregation such as municipal administrative boundaries, landforms and finally land-use and cover.

The precision of input soil data has limited impact on ES levels averaged over the whole 100 km2 territory. More precisely, the soil maps at 1: 1,000,000 and 1:250,000 scales provide accurate ES levels for areas larger than 100 and 10 km2. However, soil-supported ES are not equally sensitive to scale effects. Increasing the precision of soil data has indeed almost no impact on the water provisioning, slight impacts (around 10 %) on the regulation of water quality but impacts around 20% on the provision of biomass and the regulation of climate.

The three maps have contrastingly a strong impact on the location of the considered services with scaling effects locally reaching or even exceeding 100%. Switching spatial scales has almost no impacts on ES levels in cultivated lands localized on flat plateau positions. On the contrary, they reach around 50, 70 and 80% for the regulation of water quality, the production of biomass and the regulation of climate respectively in forested and natural lands localized on plateau edges, sloping lands and valley bottom that appear more particularly sensitive to switching scales. Forested and sloping lands indeed concentrate marginal soils showing very specific ES signatures.

Identifying the optimal representation of soil diversity to obtain a reliable representation of ES spatial distribution is not straightforward. The ES sensitivity to scale effect is indeed highly variable among individual ES, landforms, or land-uses and not directly linked with the soil diversity represented in soil maps.

 
An insight to heatwave hazard mapping over the Indian subcontinent
Authors: Shilin Anokha , Sudharsan Naveen , Mondal Arpita , Kalbar Pradip , Karmakar Subhankar
Published: March 2022

Temperature extremes and heat stress are some of the major impacts of changing climate, with adverse effects on human life and property. Literatures shows that the frequency and intensity of heatwave related hazards are increasing over the last few decades. In global scenario, heatwaves are arguably more hazardous to human lives compared to any other natural disasters. However, heatwave hazard mapping studies are not so profuse over the Indian region. Many regions of the Indian subcontinent have become highly sensitive to heatwaves as a result of the recent rise in temperature extremes. As the heatwave has an impact over an extended spatial region, efficient response and mitigation plan is not possible compared with other natural disasters. India, being the second largest in human population; leading to urbanization, growing intensity of vulnerable community and the anthropogenic influences indicates an urgent need for a well-developed heatwave hazard map to aid the mitigation and response measures. Anthropogenic factors influencing the climate change are one among the main causative parameter for heatwave hazards. The repercussion of these factors will be evidently reflected in the atmospheric patterns and hence the involvement of atmospheric parameters is considered. In this study, we develop a novel index-based heatwave hazard map for India. Along with the conventional method of using temperature, the atmospheric influencing factors is also considered to quantify the changes in heatwave hazard for the historical period and the near future heatwave conditions. The vulnerable community including the farmers, who are attempting to combat with the extreme temperature issues will be benefited with the developed heatwave hazard map.  

Keywords: Heatwave hazard map, Climate change, Frequency and intensity, India