Advancing household resilience to recurring shocks: monitoring and early warning of manmade and natural disasters in Ulang County, South Sudan
Authors:   University of Liege, Bisetsa E , Ca-Madeberi Ya-Bititi G , Mumararungu I , Okot J , Burny P 
Published: December 2024

South Sudan is the newest country in the world - it has been experiencing recurrent conflict and climatic shocks such as flooding and hunger, creating a protracted humanitarian situation where 9 million people – three-quarters of South Sudan's population – are projected to require humanitarian and protection assistance in 2024. Two million people remain displaced due to decades of conflict, intercommunal violence and extreme effects and events of climate change, such as flooding and dry spells (OCHA 2024). Lack of coherent early warning identifiers and adequate monitoring mechanisms exacerbate acute shocks and chronic stresses due to both manmade and natural calamities amongst vulnerable communities in Ulang County. This paper aims at ascertaining the existing mechanisms and indicators that the community utilize for monitoring and early warning of habitual natural and man-made disasters. This study used both quantitative and qualitative data collection techniques. Quantitative data were gathered through a household survey using a structured questionnaire from 120 displaced households had been affected by floods and episodes of inter-communal violence. The household survey used two-stage cluster sampling with probability proportionate to size (PPS) to identify respondents. The qualitative data were collected through focus group discussions with men and women representatives located along the Sobat river. Key informant interviews with local leaders at County, Payam and Boma level were equally conducted to gather comprehensive information, and gain a better understanding of the context and draw sound recommendations and conclusions. Descriptive and comparative methods were used in the bid to grasp the prevailing early warning identifiers and the monitoring systems or mechanisms in place for repeated flooding, inter-communal violence and revenge killings. The research findings uncovered that 55.8% of respondents are aware of both traditional early warning indicators to climate-related shocks as well as to inter-communal violence. Community Managed Disaster Risk Reduction (CMDRR) committees have been established to bolster preparation against disasters and facilitate early response. The CMDRR structure has enabled timely preparedness and provides leadership for any response or post-disaster activities prior to receiving assistance from humanitarian actors. On the other hand, inadequate monitoring systems and tools amongst the duty bearers and limited capacity of the County leadership and other public institutions both at State and County level make the monitoring and early warning of recurrent disasters less effective. Furthermore, funding constraints remains one of the major challenges cited by humanitarian actors that often curtails their efforts in collaborating with government counterparts in tackling disaster risks in a more sustainable manner.

Key words: Resilience, monitoring, early warning, disaster, Ulang county, South Sudan