bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Linking glacial and future climates through an ensemble of GCM simulations
Authors: Hargreaves J. C. , Abe-Ouchi A. , Annan J. D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper we explore the relationships between the modelled climate of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and that for doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide compared to the pre-industrial climate by analysing the output from an ensemble of runs from the MIROC3.2 GCM. Our results lend support to the idea in other recent work that the Antarctic is a useful place to look for historical data which can be used to validate models used for climate forecasting of future greenhouse gas induced climate changes, at local, regional and global scales. Good results may also be obtainable using tropical temperatures, particularly those over the ocean. While the greater area in the tropics makes them an attractive area for seeking data, polar amplification of temperature changes may mean that the Anatarctic provides a clearer signal relative to the uncertainties in data and model results. Our result for Greenland is not so strong, possibly due to difficulties in accurately modelling the sea ice extent. The MIROC3.2 model shows an asymmetry in climate sensitivity calculated by decreasing rather than increasing the greenhouse gases, with 80% of the ensemble having a weaker cooling than warming. This asymmetry, if confirmed by other studies would mean that direct estimates of climate sensitivity from the LGM are likely to be underestimated by the order of half a degree. Our suspicion is, however, that this result may be highly model dependent. Analysis of the parameters varied in the model suggest the asymmetrical response may be linked to the ice in the clouds, which is therefore indicated as an important area for future research.
Climatic changes in the Urals over the past millennium. An analysis of geothermal and meteorological data
Authors: Demezhko D. Yu. , Golovanova I. V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This investigation is based on a study of two paleoclimatic curves obtained in the Urals (51–59° N, 58–61° E): i) a ground surface temperature history (GSTH) reconstruction since 800 AD and ii) meteorological data for the last 170 years. Temperature anomalies measured in 49 boreholes were used for the GSTH reconstruction. It is shown that a traditional averaging of the histories leads to the lowest estimates of amplitude of past temperature fluctuations. The interval estimates method, accounting separately for the rock's thermal diffusivity variations and the influence of a number of non-climatic causes, was used for obtaining the average GSTH. Joint analysis of GSTH and meteorological data bring us to the following conclusions. First, ground surface temperatures in the Medieval maximum during 1100–1200 was 0.38 K higher than the 20th century mean temperature (1900–1960). The Little Ice Age cooling was culminated in 1720 when surface mean temperature was 1.58 K below than the 20th century mean temperature. Secondly, contemporary warming began approximately one century prior to the first instrumental measurements in the Urals. The rate of warming was +0.25K/100years in the 18th century, +1.15 K/100years in the 19th and +0.75 K/100years in the first 80 years of the 20th. Finally, the mean rate of temperature warming increased in final decades of 20th century. An analysis of linear regression coefficients in running intervals of 11, 21 and 31 years, shows that there were periods of warming with almost the same rates in the past, including the 19th century.
Reconstructing glacier-based climates of LGM Europe and Russia – Part 2: A dataset of LGM climates derived from degree-day modelling of palaeo glaciers
Authors: Allen R. , Siegert M. J. , Payne A. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The study of European and Russian Quaternary glacial-geological evidence during the last 15 years has generated sufficient to data to use former glacial extent as a proxy for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate at a continental scale. Utilisation of such data is relevant for two reasons. First, continental to global scale proxy reconstructions of past climate are an important tool in the assessment of retrospective general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Second, the development of a multi-proxy approach will result in a more robust proxy based climate signal. A new and independent dataset of 36 LGM climate estimates derived from European and Russian mountain regions is presented in this paper. A simple glacier-climate model was used to establish the optimum LGM climate conditions for each region from a suite of over 4000 model climates using the principle of zero cumulative mass balance. Clear regional trends are present in the reconstructed LGM climates; temperature anomalies north of the Alps are 2°C and 5°C larger than those in the western and eastern Mediterranean, respectively. In Russia the model results suggest that both the Arctic Urals and Puterana Plateau were probably glaciated by small mountain glaciers during the LGM.
Modeling a strong East Asian summer monsoon in a globally cool Earth, the MIS-13 case
Authors: Yin Q. Z. , Berger A. , Driesschaert E. , Goosse H. , Loutre M. F. , Crucifix M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Deep-sea and ice-core records show a significant reduced amplitude of the ice volume, temperature and greenhouse gases variations before Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 11, about 400 000 years ago, with less warm (more glaciated) interglacials and less cold glacials. At the same time, the loess in northern China, the sedimentary core in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the palaeosols in southern China all record an unusually warm and wet climate during MIS-13 (about 500 000 years ago), indicating an extremely strong East Asian summer monsoon. To understand this seeming paradox of a strong East Asian summer monsoon occurring during the cool MIS-13, a three-dimension Earth system Model of Intermediate complexity is used. Modeling results show that this very strong MIS-13 East Asian summer monsoon, identified from the precipitation, horizontal and vertical (omega) wind, and pressure (geopotential) fields, results from the astronomical and ice sheet forcings. North Hemisphere summer at perihelion both at 529 and 506 ka BP leads to an East Asian summer monsoon stronger than during the Pre-Industrial time. In addition, the ice sheets reinforce the East Asian summer monsoon through the propagation of a perturbation wave which is induced mainly by the Eurasian ice sheet and is influenced by the Tibetan Plateau.
Climate fluctuations during the Holocene in NW Iberia: high and low latitude linkages
Authors: Pena L. D. , Francés G. , Diz P. , Nombela M. A. , Alejo I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. High resolution benthic foraminiferal oxygen and carbon stable isotopes (δ18O, δ13C) from core EUGC-3B are used here to infer rapid climatic changes for the last 8500 yr in the Ría de Muros (NW Iberian Margin). Benthic foraminiferal δ18O and δ13C potentially register migrations in the position of the hydrographic front formed between two different intermediate water masses: Eastern North Atlantic Central Water of subpolar origin (ENACWsp), and subtropical origin (ENACWsp). The isotopic records have been compared with two well established North Atlantic marine Holocene paleoceanographic records from low (Sea Surface Temperatures anomalies off Cape Blanc, NW Africa) and high latitudes (Hematite Stained Grains percentage, subpolar North Atlantic). This comparison clearly demonstrates that there is a strong link between high- and low-latitude climatic perturbations at centennial-millennial time scales during the Holocene. Spectral analyses also points at a pole-to-equator propagation of the so-called 1500 yr cycles. Our results demonstrate that during the Holocene, the NW Iberian Margin has undergone a series of cold episodes which are likely triggered at high latitudes in the North Atlantic and are rapidly propagated towards lower latitudes. Conceivably, the propagation of these rapid climatic changes involves a shift of atmospheric and oceanic circulatory systems and so a migration of the hydrographical fronts and water masses all along the North Atlantic area.
Synchronisation of the EDML and EDC ice cores for the last 52 kyr by volcanic signature matching
Authors: Severi M. , Becagli S. , Castellano E. , Morganti A. , Traversi R. , Udisti R. , Ruth U. , Fischer H. , Huybrechts P. , Wolff E. , Parrenin F. , Kaufmann P. , Lambert F. , Steffensen J. P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A common time scale for the EPICA ice cores from Dome C (EDC) and Dronning Maud Land (EDML) was established. Since EDML core was not drilled on a dome, the development of the EDML1 time scale for the EPICA ice core drilled in Dronning Maud Land was carried on by creating a detailed stratigraphic link between this core and the one drilled at Dome C, dated by a simpler 1D ice-flow model. The synchronisation between the two ice cores was built via the identification of several common volcanic signatures. This paper describes the rigorous method, using the signature of volcanic sulfate, which was employed for the last 52 kyr of the record. By evaluating the ratio R of the apparent duration of temporal intervals between couples of isochrones, the depth comparison between the two cores was turned into an estimate of anomalies between the modelled EDC and EDML glaciological age models during the studied period. On average R ranges between 0.8 and 1.2 corresponding to an uncertainty within 20% in the estimate of the time duration in at least one of the two ice cores. Significant deviations of R up to 1.4–1.5 are observed between 18 and 28 kyr BP. At this step our approach is not able to unequivocally find out which of the models is affected by the errors, but assuming the thinning function at both sites and accumulation history at Dome C, which was drilled on a dome, as being correct, this anomaly can be ascribed to a complex spatial accumulation variability (which may be different at present day and in the past) and to upstream ice flow in the area of the EDML core.
Thermal signal propagation in soils in Romania: conductive and non-conductive processes
Authors: Demetrescu C. , Nitoiu D. , Boroneanţ C. , Marica A. , Lucaschi B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Temperature data recorded in 2002 and 2003 at 10 stations out of the 70 of the Romanian automatic weather stations network are presented and analyzed in terms of the heat transfer from air to underground. The air temperature at 2 m, the soil temperatures at 0, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 cm below soil surface as well as precipitation and snow thickness have been monitored. The selected locations sample various climate environments in Romania. First order modelling confirm that at certain locations and for certain time intervals soil temperatures track air temperature variations and consequently the heat transfer is by conduction, while at others, processes such as soil freezing and/or solar radiation heating play an important part in the heat flux balance at the air/soil interface. However, the propagation of the annual thermal signal in the first meter of soil is through conduction; the effective thermal diffusivity for 8 stations with continuous time series at all depth levels ranges from 3 to 10×10–6m2s–1.
The EDC3 chronology for the EPICA Dome C ice core
Authors: Parrenin F. , Barnola J.-M. , Beer J. , Blunier T. , Castellano E. , Chappellaz J. , Dreyfus G. , Fischer H. , Fujita S. , Jouzel J. , Kawamura K. , Lemieux-Dudon B. , Loulergue L. , Masson-Delmotte V. , Narcisi B. , Petit J.-R. , Raisbeck G. , Raynaud D. , Ruth U. , Schwander J. , Severi M. , Spahni R. , Steffensen J. P. , Svensson A. , Udisti R. , Waelbroeck C. , Wolff E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Dome C drilling in East Antarctica has now been completed to a depth of 3260 m, at only a few meters above bedrock. Here we present the new official EDC3 chronology, which is based on the use of 1) a snow accumulation and mechanical flow model, and 2) a set of independent age markers along the core. These are obtained by pattern matching of recorded parameters to either absolutely dated paleoclimatic records, or to insolation variations. We show that this new time scale is in excellent agreement with the Dome Fuji and Vostok ice core time scales back to 100 kyr within 1 kyr. Discrepancies larger than 3 kyr arise during MIS 5.4, 5.5 and 6, which points to anomalies in either snow accumulation or mechanical flow during these time periods. We estimate that EDC3 gives accurate event durations within 20% (2σ ) back to MIS11 and accurate absolute ages with a maximum uncertainty of 6 kyr back to 800 kyr.
Spatial distribution of Pleistocene/Holocene warming amplitudes in Northern Eurasia inferred from geothermal data
Authors: Demezhko D. Yu. , Ryvkin D. G. , Outkin V. I. , Duchkov A. D. , Balobaev V. T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We analyze 48 geothermal estimates of Pleistocene/Holocene warming amplitude from various locations in Greenland, Europe, Arctic regions of Western Siberia, and Yakutia. The spatial distribution of these estimates exhibits two remarkable features. (i) In Europe and part of Asia the amplitude of warming increases towards northwest and displays clear asymmetry with respect to the North Pole. The region of maximal warming is close to the North Atlantic. A simple parametric dependence of the amplitude on the distance to the warming center explains 91% of the amplitude variation. The Pleistocene/Holocene warming center is located northeast of Iceland. We claim that the Holocene warming is primarily related to the formation (or resumption) of the modern system of currents in the North Atlantic. (ii) In Arctic Asia, north of the 68-th parallel, the amplitude sharply decreases from South to North, reaching zero and even negative values. Too small amplitudes could be attributed to a joint warming influence of Late Pleistocene ice sheets and warm-water lakes formed in Late Pleistocene by the damming of the Ob, Yenisei and Lena Rivers. Using a simple model of the temperature regime underneath the ice sheet we show that, depending on the relationship between the heat flow and the vertical ice advection velocity, the base of the glacier can either warm up or cool down.
The LGM surface climate and atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific in the PMIP2 coupled model simulations
Authors: Yanase W. , Abe-Ouchi A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The surface climate and atmospheric circulation over East Asia and the North Pacific at the last glacial maximum has been investigated using the outputs from several coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model in PMIP2 database. In boreal summer, the weakening of high pressure over the North Pacific and less precipitation over East Asia are analyzed in most models. The reduced moisture transport seems to result in the less precipitation over East Asia. In boreal winter, the intensification of the Aleutian low and southward shift of the upper-level jet are analyzed in most models. Some of these results are consistent with geological records such as pollen, lake status and dust transport.
The origin of the 1500-year climate cycles in Holocene North-Atlantic records
Authors: Debret M. , Bout-Roumazeilles V. , Grousset F. , Desmet M. , McManus J. F. , Massei N. , Sebag D. , Petit J.-R. , Copard Y. , Trentesaux A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Since the first suggestion of 1500-year cycles in the advance and retreat of glaciers (Denton and Karlen, 1973), many studies have uncovered evidence of repeated climate oscillations of 2500, 1500, and 1000 years. During last glacial period, natural climate cycles of 1500 years appear to be persistent (Bond and Lotti, 1995) and remarkably regular (Mayewski et al., 1997; Rahmstorf, 2003), yet the origin of this pacing during the Holocene remains a mystery (Rahmstorf, 2003), making it one of the outstanding puzzles of climate variability. Solar variability is often considered likely to be responsible for such cyclicities, but the evidence for solar forcing is difficult to evaluate within available data series due to the shortcomings of conventional time-series analyses. However, the wavelets analysis method is appropriate when considering non-stationary variability. Here we show by the use of wavelets analysis that it is possible to distinguish solar forcing of 1000- and 2500- year oscillations from oceanic forcing of 1500-year cycles. Using this method, the relative contribution of solar-related and ocean-related climate influences can be distinguished throughout the 10 000 Holocene intervals since the last ice age. These results reveal that the mysteriously regular 1,500-year climate cycles are linked with the oceanic circulation and not with variations in solar output as previously argued (Bond et al., 2001). In this light, previously studied marine sediment (Bianchi and McCave, 1999; Giraudeau et al., 2000), ice core (O'Brien et al., 1995) and dust records (Jackson et al., 2005) can be seen to contain the evidence of combined forcing mechanisms, whose relative influences varied during the course of the Holocene. Circum-Atlantic climate records cannot be explained by solar forcing, but require changes in ocean circulation, as suggested previously (Broecker et al., 2001; McManus et al., 1999).
Ice thinning, upstream advection, and non-climatic biases for the upper 89% of the EDML ice core from a nested model of the Antarctic ice sheet
Authors: Huybrechts P. , Rybak O. , Pattyn F. , Ruth U. , Steinhage D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A nested ice flow model was developed for eastern Dronning Maud Land to assist with the dating and interpretation of the EDML deep ice core. The model consists of a high-resolution higher-order ice dynamic flow model that was nested into a comprehensive 3-D thermomechanical model of the whole Antarctic ice sheet. As the drill site is on a flank position the calculations specifically take into account the effects of horizontal advection as deeper ice in the core originated from higher inland. First the regional velocity field and ice sheet geometry is obtained from a forward experiment over the last 8 glacial cycles. The result is subsequently employed in a Lagrangian backtracing algorithm to provide particle paths back to their time and place of deposition. The procedure directly yields the depth-age distribution, surface conditions at particle origin, and a suite of relevant parameters such as initial annual layer thickness. This paper discusses the method and the main results of the experiment, including the ice core chronology, the non-climatic corrections needed to extract the climatic part of the signal, and the thinning function. The focus is on the upper 89% of the ice core (appr. 170 kyears) as the dating below that is increasingly less robust owing to the unknown value of the geothermal heat flux. It is found that the temperature biases resulting from variations of surface elevation are up to half of the magnitude of the climatic changes themselves.
LGM and Late Glacial glacier advances in the Cordillera Real and Cochabamba (Bolivia) deduced from 10Be surface exposure dating
Authors: Zech R. , Kull Ch. , Kubik P. W. , Veit H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Surface exposure dating (SED) is an innovative tool being already widely applied for moraine dating and for Late Quaternary glacier and climate reconstruction. Here we present exposure ages of 28 boulders from the Cordillera Real and the Cordillera Cochabamba, Bolivia. Our results indicate that the local Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) in the Eastern Cordilleras occurred at ~22–25 ka and thus synchronous to the global temperature minimum. We were also able to date several Late Glacial moraines to ~11–13 ka, which likely document lower temperatures and increased precipitation ("Coipasa" humid phase). Additionally, we recognize the existence of older Late Glacial moraines re-calculated to ~15 ka from published cosmogenic nuclide data. Those may coincide with the cold Heinrich 1 event in the North Atlantic region and the pronounced "Tauca" humid phase. We conclude that (i) exposure ages in the tropical Andes may have been substantially overestimated so far due to methodological uncertainties, and (ii) although precipitation plays an important role for glacier mass balances in the tropical Andes, it becomes the dominant forcing for glaciation only in the drier and thus more precipitation-sensitive regions further west and south.
Non-linear statistical downscaling of present and LGM precipitation and temperatures over Europe
Authors: Vrac M. , Paillard D. , Naveau P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The needs of small-scale climate information have become prevalent to study the impacts of future climate change as well as for paleoclimate researches where the reconstructions from proxies are obviously local. In this study we develop a non-linear statistical downscaling method to generate local temperatures and precipitation values from large-scale variables (e.g. Global Circulation Model – GCM – outputs), through Generalized Additive Models (GAMs) calibrated on the present Western Europe climate. First, various monthly GAMs (i.e. one model for each month) are tested for preliminary analysis. Then, annual GAMs (i.e. one model for the 12 months altogether) are developed and tailored for two sets of predictors (geographical and physical) to downscale local temperatures and precipitation. As an evaluation of our approach under large-scale conditions different from present Western Europe, projections are realized (1) for present North America and Northern Europe and compared to local observations (spatial test); and (2) for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) period, and compared to local reconstructions and GCMs outputs (temporal test). In general, both spatial and temporal evaluations indicate that the GAMs are flexible and efficient tools to capture and downscale non-linearities between large- and local-scale variables. More precisely, the results emphasize that, while physical predictors alone are not capable of downscaling realistic values when applied to climate strongly different from the one used for calibration, the inclusion of geographical-type variables – such as altitude, advective continentality and W-slope – into GAM predictors brings robustness and improvement to the method and its local projections.
Thermal log analysis for recognition of ground surface temperature change and water movements
Authors: Verdoya M. , Chiozzi P. , Pasquale V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A joint analysis of surface air temperature series recorded at meteorological stations and temperature-depth profiles logged in near-by boreholes was performed to estimate conditions existing prior to the beginning of the instrumental record in central-northern Italy. The adopted method considers conductive and advective heat transport in a horizontally layered medium and provides simultaneous estimates of the pre-observational temperatures and the Darcy velocities. The reconstruction of the ground surface temperature history using an inversion method was performed for boreholes where hydrological disturbances to measured temperature logs were proved to be negligible. Both methods revealed generally coherent climatic changes in the whole investigated area. Climatic conditions were generally warm and comparable with the reference period 1960–1990. The absence of the Little Ice Age in the middle ages seems to be a generic feature of the climate in central-northern Italy. Climate change of the 19th century was generally insignificant with well balanced periods of cold and warmth. The investigated area became significantly colder only at the end of the 19th century. Cooling culminated around 1950 when it was replaced by rapid warming. Recent warming was not inferred only for one of the investigated holes. This discrepancy can be attributed to local environmental conditions.
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century
Authors: Goosse H. , Driesschaert E. , Fichefet T. , Loutre M.-F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The summer sea ice extent strongly decreased in the Arctic over the last decades. This decline is very likely to continue in the future but uncertainty on projections is very large. An ensemble of experiments with the climate model LOVECLIM using 5 different parameter sets has been performed to show that summer sea ice changes for the early Holocene and for the 21st century are strongly linked, allowing to reduce this uncertainty. Using the limited information presently available for the early Holocene, simulations presenting very large changes for the 21st century could reasonably be rejected. On the other hand, simulations displaying low to moderate changes during the second half of the 20th century are not consistent with recent observations. Using this evidence based on observations during both the early Holocene and the last decades, the most realistic projection indicates a nearly disappearance of the sea ice at the end of the 21st century for a moderate increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. For a faster increase in those concentrations, the Arctic Ocean would become almost ice-free in summer as early as 2060 AD.
Exploring the climatic impact of the continental vegetation on the Mezosoic atmospheric CO2 and climate history
Authors: Donnadieu Y. , Goddéris Y. , Bouttes N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this contribution, we continue our exploration of the factors defining the Mesozoic climatic history. We improve the Earth system model GEOCLIM designed for long term climate and geochemical reconstructions by adding the explicit calculation of the biome dynamics using the LPJ model. The coupled GEOCLIM-LPJ model thus allows the simultaneous calculation of the climate with a 2-D spatial resolution, the coeval atmospheric CO2, and the continental biome distribution. We found that accounting for the climatic role of the continental vegetation dynamics (albedo change, water cycle and surface roughness modulations) strongly affects the reconstructed geological climate. Indeed the calculated partial pressure of atmospheric CO2 over the Mesozoic is twice the value calculated when assuming a uniform constant vegetation. This increase in CO2 is triggered by a global cooling of the continents, itself triggered by a general increase in continental albedo owing to the development of desertic surfaces. This cooling reduces the CO2 consumption through silicate weathering, and hence results in a compensating increase in the atmospheric CO2 pressure. This study demonstrates that the impact of land plants on climate and hence on atmospheric CO2 is as important as their geochemical effect through the enhancement of chemical weathering of the continental surface. Our GEOCLIM-LPJ simulations also define a climatic baseline for the Mesozoic, around which exceptionally cool and warm events can be identified.
The 8.2 ka cooling event related to extensive melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet
Authors: Ebbesen H. , Kuijpers A. , Moros M. , Lloyd J. , Seidenkrantz M.-S. , Troelstra S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The North Atlantic cooling event at 8200 calibrated (cal) yr BP has been attributed to effects of an extensive freshwater discharge from the Hudson Strait (Barber et al., 1999; Leverington et al., 2002). Here we present sedimentary records from 5 cores collected from the Greenland shelf. These document high magnetic susceptibility (MS) values related to massive silt deposition, which is ascribed to large-scale melt water outflow from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) spanning the centuries before 8200 cal yr BP and ending after 8000 cal yr BP. XRF trace element composition and foraminiferal fauna's provide additional evidence for excessive melt-water production, which can be related to early Holocene warming of the circum-Arctic region including Greenland. Planktonic foraminiferal fauna data from the southern Davis Strait indicate the widespread presence of negative salinity anomalies reaching far offshore Greenland. Significant freshening of surface waters around Greenland prior to 8200 cal yr BP must have led to a slowdown of the deep-water formation which thus implies that significant melting of the GIS should be taken into account when discussing driving mechanisms behind the 8200 cal yr BP cooling event.
Response of regional climate and glacier ice proxies to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the subtropical Andes
Authors: Dietze E. , Kleber A. , Schwikowski M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important element of earth's ocean-climate system. To further understand its past variability, proxy records from climate archives need to be studied. Ice cores from high alpine glaciers may contain high resolution ENSO proxy information, given the glacier site is climatologically sensitive to ENSO. We investigated signals of ENSO in the climate of the subtropical Andes in the proximity of Cerro Tapado glacier (30°08' S, 69°55' W, 5550 m a.s.l.), where a 36 m long ice core was drilled in 1999 (Ginot, 2001). We used annual and semi-annual precipitation and temperature time series from regional meteorological stations and interpolated grids for correlation analyses with ENSO indices and ice core-derived proxies (net accumulation, stable isotope ratio δ18O, major ion concentrations). The total time period investigated here comprises 1900 to 2000, but varies with data sets. Only in the western, i.e. Mediterranean Andes precipitation is higher (lower) during El Niño (La Niña) events, especially at higher altitudes, due to the latitudinal shift of frontal activity during austral winters. However, the temperature response to ENSO is more stable in space and time, being higher (lower) during El Niño (La Niña) events in most of the subtropical Andes all year long. From a northwest to southeast teleconnection gradient, we suggest a regional water vapour feedback triggers temperature anomalies as a function of ENSO-related changes in regional pressure systems, Pacific sea surface temperature and tropical moisture input. Tapado glacier ice proxies are found to be predominantly connected to eastern Andean summer rain climate, which contradicts previous studies and the modern mean spatial boundary between subtropical summer and winter rain climate derived from the grid data. The only ice core proxy showing a response to ENSO is the major ion concentrations, via local temperature indicating reduced sublimation and mineral dust input during El Niño years.
East Asian Monsoon and paleoclimatic data analysis: a vegetation point of view
Authors: Guiot J. , Haibin W. , Wenying J. , Yunli L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. First we review several syntheses of paleodata (pollen, lake-levels) showing the climate variations in China and Mongolia from the last glacial maximum to Present and in particular the precipitation increase at mid Holocene related to enhanced monsoon. All these results concur to a much enhanced monsoon on most of China during the first half of the Holocene. Second we present, in some details, a temporal study of a core (Lake Bayanchagan, Inner Mongolia) located in an arid region at the edge of the present East Asian Monsoon (EAM) influence and then sensitive to climatic change. This study involves pollen data together with other macro-remains and stable isotope curve to obtain a robust climate reconstruction. This studies shows a long wet period between 11 000 and 5000 years BP divided in two parts, a warmer one from 11 000 and 8000 (marked by large evapotranspiration) and a cooler one more favourable to forest expansion. Third, we present a spatial study based on pollen data only and covering all China and Mongolia at 6000 years BP, but using a mechanistic modelling approach, in an inverse mode. It has the advantage to take into account environmental context different from the present one (lower atmospheric CO2, different seasonality). This study shows temperature generally cooler than present one in southern China, but a significant warming was found over Mongolia, and a slightly higher in Northeast China. Precipitation was generally higher than today in southern, Northeast China, and northern Mongolia, but lower or similar to today in Northwest China and North China. Enhanced EAM was then found in the southern half of China and in Northeast China.
Uniform climate development between the subtropical and subpolar Northeast Atlantic across marine isotope stage 11
Authors: Helmke J. P. , Bauch H. A. , Röhl U. , Kandiano E. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Proxy records from a core site off Northwest Africa were generated and compared with data from the subpolar Northeast Atlantic to unravel some main climatic features of interglacial marine isotope stage (MIS) 11 (423–362 ka). The records point to an almost 25 kyr lasting full interglacial period during stage 11 that was preceded by a considerably long glacial-interglacial transition (Termination V). Off NW Africa, a strong reduction of terrestrially derived iron input is noted after 420 ka suggesting a pronounced increase in continental humidity and vegetation cover over Northwest Africa. In analogy to the Holocene climate of the region, this early wet phase of MIS 11 was likely associated with enhanced influence of the West African monsoon system on the Saharan-Sahel region which led to both a reduction in trade wind intensity off NW Africa and the formation of sapropel S11 in the Mediterranean Sea. A detailed comparison with data from the subpolar North Atlantic indicates a remarkable coherent timing for the main environmental changes in both regions giving evidence for strong interglacial climate connectivity between the low and high latitude North Atlantic. Although our records of MIS 11 compare well with the Holocene in terms of some major climate characteristics there are distinct differences in the temporal evolution of each peak warm interval. This suggests that care should be taken when using MIS 11 as analogue to forecast future interglacial conditions.
Recent climate change in Japan – spatial and temporal characteristics of trends of temperature
Authors: Schaefer D. , Domroes M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper temperature series of Japan were statistically analysed in order to answer the question whether recent climate change can be proved for Japan; the results were compared and discussed with the global trends. The observations in Japan started for some stations in the 1870s, 59 stations are available since 1901, 136 stations since 1959. Modern statistical methods were applied, such as: Gaussian binominal low-pass filter (30 yr), trend analysis (linear regression model) including the trend-to-noise-ratio as measure of significance and the non-parametric, non-linear trend test according to MANN (MANN's Q). According to the results of the analyses, climate change in Japan is clearly shown for temperature over the 100 yr (1901–2000): Annual mean temperatures increased at all stations from 0.35 (Hakodate) to 2.95°C (Tokyo). The magnitude of climate change is illustrated to increase over the recent period 1976–2000. Seasonally, the strongest warming trends were observed for winter temperatures and also increasing temperature trends prevailed in summer, with the exception of slightly decreasing trends at only four stations. As far as temperatures are concerned, a distinct increase could be shown over the period 1901–2000 with a strong trend of warming over the more recent period 1976–2000.
The southern hemisphere at glacial terminations: insights from the Dome C ice core
Authors: Röthlisberger R. , Mudelsee M. , Bigler M. , de Angelis M. , Fischer H. , Hansson M. , Lambert F. , Masson-Delmotte V. , Sime L. , Udisti R. , Wolff E. W.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The many different proxy records from the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA) Dome C ice core allow for the first time a comparison of nine glacial terminations in great detail. Despite the fact that all terminations cover the transition from a glacial maximum into an interglacial, there are large differences between single terminations. For some terminations, Antarctic temperature increased only moderately, while for others, the amplitude of change at the termination was much larger. For the different terminations, the rate of change in temperature is more similar than the magnitude or duration of change. These temperature changes were accompanied by vast changes in dust and sea salt deposition all over Antarctica. Here we investigate the phasing between a South American dust proxy (non-sea-salt calcium flux, nssCa), a sea ice proxy (sea salt sodium flux, ssNa) and a proxy for Antarctic temperature (deuterium, δD). In particular, we look into whether a similar sequence of events applies to all terminations, despite their different characteristics. All proxies are derived from the EPICA Dome C ice core, resulting in a relative dating uncertainty between the proxies of less than 20 years. At the start of the terminations, the temperature (δD) increase and dust (nssCa flux) decrease start synchronously. The sea ice proxy (ssNa flux), however, only changes once the temperature has reached a particular threshold, approximately 5°C below present day temperatures (corresponding to a δD value of –420‰). This reflects to a large extent the limited sensitivity of the sea ice proxy during very cold periods with large sea ice extent. At terminations where this threshold is not reached (TVI, TVIII), ssNa flux shows no changes. Above this threshold, the sea ice proxy is closely coupled to the Antarctic temperature, and interglacial levels are reached at the same time for both ssNa and δD. On the other hand, once another threshold at approximately 2°C below present day temperature is passed (corresponding to a δD value of –402‰), nssCa flux has reached interglacial levels and does not change any more, despite further warming. This threshold behaviour most likely results from a combination of changes to the threshold friction velocity for dust entrainment and to the distribution of surface wind speeds in the dust source region.
Holocene weak summer East Asian monsoon intervals in subtropical Taiwan and their global synchronicity
Authors: Selvaraj K. , Chen C.-T. A. , Lou J.-Y.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Sedimentary total organic carbon and carbon-to-nitrogen ratio records from the subalpine Retreat Lake in NE Taiwan reveal four centennial periods (~8–8.3, 5.1–5.7, 4.5–~2.1, and 2–1.6 kyr BP) of relatively reduced summer East Asian monsoon (EAM) precipitation that were superimposed on the insolation-dependent, long-term decreasing monsoon trend during the middle and late Holocene while early Holocene monsoon strength was controlled by glacial boundary conditions. Strikingly, all weak monsoon events correlate with the timings of low sea surface temperature in the tropical Pacific, maxima of hematite stained-grains in the sediments of North Atlantic, reduced formation of North Atlantic Deep Water, and low concentrations of atmospheric methane over Greenland, suggesting a globally well-connected postglacial climate (from ca. 8.6 kyr BP onwards). Persistent linkage of weak summer EAM-tropical Pacific and North Atlantic cooling-reduced global wetland extent during these intervals is believed to be driven by coupled ocean-atmosphere interactions, especially reduced heat and moisture transport and enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical Pacific, as well as solar activity. Overall similarity of summer EAM with diverse proxy records and their coincidence to abrupt changes witnessed in other paleorecords across the world imply that the centennial-scale reorganizations in the tropical Pacific climate dynamics may have been playing an important role, of course closely in phase with solar variations and North Atlantic climate, in the Holocene summer EAM and, by extension, low-latitude's monsoon instability.
Investigating the impact of Lake Agassiz drainage routes on the 8.2 ka cold event with climate modeling
Authors: Li Y.-X. , Renssen H. , Wiersma A. P. , Törnqvist T. E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The 8.2 ka event is the most prominent abrupt climate change in the Holocene and is widely believed to result from catastrophic drainage of proglacial lakes Agassiz and Ojibway (LAO) that routed through the Hudson Bay and the Labrador Sea into the North Atlantic Ocean, and perturbed Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). One key assumption of this triggering mechanism is that the LAO freshwater drainage was spread over the Labrador Sea. Recent data, however, show no evidence of lowered δ18O values from the open Labrador Sea around 8.2 ka. Instead, negative δ18O anomalies are found close to the east coast of North America, extending as far south as Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, suggesting that the freshwater drainage was probably confined to a long stretch of continental shelf before fully mixing with North Atlantic Ocean water. Here we conduct a sensitivity study that examines the effects of this southerly drainage route on the 8.2 ka event with the ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE model. Hosing experiments of four different routing scenarios, where freshwater was introduced to the Labrador Sea in the northerly route (R1) and to three different locations (Grand Banks – R2, George Bank – R3, and Cape Hatteras – R4) on the southerly route, were performed with 0.45 m sea-level equivalent (SLE), 0.90 m SLE, and 1.35 m SLE of freshwater introduced over 5 years to investigate the routing effects on model responses. The modelling results show that a southerly drainage route is plausible but generally yields reduced climatic consequences in comparison to those of a northerly route. This finding implies that more freshwater would be required for a southerly route than for a northerly route to produce the same climate anomaly.
Climate and CO2 modulate the C3-C4 balance and δ13C signal in simulated vegetation
Authors: Flores O. , Gritti E. S. , Jolly D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Fossil pollen data and δ13C measurements from cores collected in peatbogs or lakes have shown major changes in the terrestrial vegetation during Late Quaternary. Although the effect of climate on the C3-C4 balance has been discussed for 50 years, the impact of a low atmospheric CO2 during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) was emphasized recently and conflicting evidence exists. In this paper, we use a physiologically-based biome model (BIOME4) in an iterative mode to simulate vegetation response to changing mean climate conditions and atmospheric CO2 partial pressure (pCO2). In particular, we investigate the transition from LGM to present conditions in two sites which changed from either a C4- or a C3-dominated vegetation to the opposite pole, respectively at Kuruyange (Burundi) and Lingtaï (Central Loess Plateau, China). The response of the C3-C4 balance and δ13C signal in the simulated vegetation are investigated. The results show that the vegetation is primarily sensitive to temperature and pCO2. Rainfall impacted the simulated variables below a threshold which decreased with higher pCO2. Climate and pCO2 interacted differently between the two sites showing indirect effects on the δ13C signal. Moreover, the plant functional types (PFTs) differed in their composition and in their response between the two sites, emphasizing that the competition between C3 and C4 plants cannot be hardly considered as a simple binary scheme. Our results confirm the advantages of using process-based models to understand past vegetation changes and the need to take account of multiple drivers when the C3-C4 balance is reconstructed from a palaeo-δ13C signal.
Dendroclimatology in Fennoscandia – from past accomplishments to future potentials
Authors: Linderholm H. W. , Björklund J. A. , Seftigen K. , Gunnarson B. E. , Drobyshev I. , Jeong J.-H. , Stridbeck P. , Liu Y.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Dendroclimatology, i.e. using tree-ring data to reconstruct past climates, in Fennoscandia has a strong tradition. Due to the high-latitude location of the region, trees are sensitive to climate; in general to temperatures during summer. However, a strong gradient from the oceanic west to the continental east, makes it possible to find trees that respond to other parameters, such as precipitation and drought. Situated in a sparsely populated part of the Boreal belt, Fennoscandia with its large areas of old-growth forests is suitable for constructing tree-ring chronologies reaching far back in time. Indeed, some of the world longest tree-ring chronologies are found in the region, covering all, or most of, the Holocene. In addition to providing valuable information about regional climate variability during the Holocene, tree-ring data have played significant roles in recent reconstructions of hemispheric and global temperatures as well as large-scale circulation patterns. Here we review the field of dendroclimatology in Fennoscandia, showing the wealth of climate information obtained from various tree-ring parameters (ring widths, density and stable isotopes), and look in to future possibilities.
Limitations of red noise in analysing Dansgaard-Oeschger events
Authors: Braun H. , Ditlevsen P. , Kurths J. , Mudelsee M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. During the last glacial period, climate records from the North Atlantic region exhibit a pronounced spectral component corresponding to a period of about 1470 years, which has attracted much attention. This spectral peak is closely related to the recurrence pattern of Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events. A red noise random process was used to evaluate the statistical significance of this peak, with a reported significance of more than 99%. Here we use a simple two-state model of DO events, which itself was derived from a much more sophisticated ocean-atmosphere model of intermediate complexity, to numerically evaluate the spectral properties of random (i.e., solely noise-driven) events. This way we find that the power spectral density of random DO events differs fundamentally from a simple red noise random process. These results question the applicability of linear spectral analysis for estimating the statistical significance of highly non-linear processes such as DO events.
Paleometeorology: visualizing mid-latitude dynamics at the synoptic level during the Last Glacial Maximum
Authors: Unterman M. B. , Crowley T. J. , Hodges K. I. , Kim S. J. , Erickson D. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. High resolution animations of the ice age surface have been developed as a tool for in-depth analysis of "paleometeorological" features. Synoptic-scale weather conditions of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) are simulated using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model version 3 (CCM3.6) on a globally resolved T170 (~75 km) grid domain. Model outputs have been saved at hourly intervals in order to better resolve diurnal features. The simulation has been run in tandem with a lower temporally resolved simulation of Kim et al. (2008) to enable a first-pass assessment of significance of features in the shorter run. Both simulations were forced with modified CLIMAP sea ice and sea surface temperatures (SSTs), reduced global CO2, ice sheet topography, lower sea level, and 21 000 BP orbital parameters. Results from the North Pacific show continued high storm activity during the LGM, whereas the North Atlantic tends to be more quiescent. Plots of storm tracks indicate that all North Pacific storms were steered northward into the Gulf of Alaska, bringing relatively warm air and precipitation into the region. This result is consistent with increased poleward heat transport into the region in the LGM climatological run as well as the absence of evidence for glaciation in middle Alaska. Storm-track trajectories should also have decreased upwelling along the northwest American coast – a response consistent with some geological data. The storms and other atmospheric features are illustrated in a high-resolution animation, which may also be useful as a teaching tool. Further investigation of these runs may provide additional insight into features such as wave-wave interactions, which have previously been unavailable to the research community for an alternate-Earth climate that has been at least as common as the present one over the last 500 000 years.