bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Statistical evaluation of the performance of EM27/SUN measurements as part of the MAGIC initiative
Authors: El Habchi El Fenniri Hajar ,   MAGIC initiative group
Published: March 2024

Measuring the concentration of greenhouse gases (GHGs) has become a major concern in modern society because of the growing impact of human activity on the global climate system (Hui et al. 2022). Satellite observations give an unique opportunity to observe the GHGs total columns at a global scale, but these space missions need to be validated from ground-based measurements.In order to enhance cal/val activities of current and future space missions and to better understand the spatial and vertical distributions of GHGs in different key regions for carbon and methane cycles, the MAGIC (Monitroing of Atmospheric composition and Greenhouse gases through multi-Instrument Campaigns) initiative was launched in 2018 by CNRS and CNES, brining now together more than fifteen international teams (https://magic.aeris-data.fr). Various instruments, including research aircrafts, balloons and ground-based measurements, have been used yearly over intensive measurement campaigns. The EM27/SUN Fourier Transform Spectrometer is one of the ground-based measurement instruments used as part of this initiative. This device offers the practical advantages of portability and access to  column mole fractions of dry air  of CO2, CH4, CO and H2O from solar spectraThe main objective of this study is to carry out a statistical evaluation of the EM27/SUN data collected during the MAGIC measurement campaigns. The EM27/SUN devices (LERMA, LSCE, GSMA, CNES and KIT) have been deployed at various measurement sites since 2018. For the last two years, 2022 and 2023, measurements of CO2 and CH4 total column have been carried out in the city of Reims as a pilot site representative of medium-sized cities on a European scale, with the aim of estimating emissions of the main greenhouse gases on a city scale. The results obtained can also be compared with data from current satellite missions (S5P, IASI, GOSAT-2) for cal/val purposes. Keywords: Climate change, Greenhouse gases, Ground-based FTIR, EM27/SUN, Reims broadcasts, Comparison [Hui et al. 2022]: Hui, D., Deng, Q., Tian, H., & Luo, Y. (2022). Global climate change and greenhouse gases emissions in terrestrial ecosystems. In Handbook of climate change mitigation and adaptation (pp. 23-76). Cham: Springer International Publishing. Magic initiative group : Bruno GROUIEZ, Lilian JOLY, Abdelhamid HAMDOUNI, Yao TE, Pascal JESECK, Christel GUY, Caroline BES, Denis JOUGLET, Hervé HERBIN, Morgan LOPEZ, Josselin DOC, Simona LATCHABADY, Michel RAMONET, Christof JANSSEN, Marc DELMOTTE, Deniel CAROLE, Corinne BOURSIER, Nicole MONTENEGRO VARELA, Hao FU, Neil HUMPAGE, Carlos ALBERTI, Vincent CASSÉ, Bruna SILVEIRA, Frank HASE, Cyril CREVOISIER
Integration of Nature-based Solutions for stormwater control and management
Authors: Maglia Noemi , Raimondi Anita
Published: March 2024

In the last decades, all over the world, cities have been characterized by the growth of urban population and urbanization. This involves some issues related to water resource management in terms of water supply during drought periods and stormwater control during rainfall events.In this context, Nature-based Solutions (NBSs) are increasingly encouraged and used as support for traditional urban drainage systems to make urban areas more sustainable and resilient to the effects of climate change. They contribute to runoff control and management and natural water balance restoration, providing several benefits to the environment and communities. Moreover, NBSs meet several Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) of United Nations Agenda 2030, such as Goal 6 (“Clean Water and Sanitation”), Goal 11 (“Sustainable Cities and Communities”), and Goal 13 (“Climate Action”).The study presents the integration of a rainwater tank with an infiltration system to limit both the water demand for drinking supplies and the overload of sewers. An analytical probabilistic approach is developed to balance the different purposes of the system and to overcome the limits of the traditional methods for performing multi-objective analysis. The proposed method enables the relationship between the main characteristics of the system and a return period and considers the possibility of storage capacity pre-filling from previous rainfall events. It can be applied under different climatic scenarios and management rules of the system.The goodness of the theoretical framework is verified by applying it to a real case study in Milano (Italy) and successfully tested by comparing the results of its application with those from the traditional methods proposed in the literature. The use of integrated NBSs can be useful for the optimization of both water supply and urban drainage systems in terms of limiting drinking water waste and flood risk and also acting on water resource protection in terms of high-quality source preservation and aquifer recharge.
The non-axial dipolar magnetic field of Mercury
Authors: Rong Zhaojin
Published: March 2024

Here,  we use a state-of-art method to diagnose the Mercury’s dipolar field which is assumed to originate from a magnetic dipole. This method can effectively separate and solve the dipole parameters, and gives the error of how much the dataset of sampled magnetic field deviated from the dipole field . By employing this method and the MESSENGER field data, the derived optimum dipole parameters demonstrated that the dipole center is at [x=5.0;y=-16.0;z=480.5]km, the dipole moment is about M=2.5*10^19 nA.m^2 (or 172 nT*RM^-3), the dipole tilt angle is 3.7 degree. Our yielded dipole moment is weaker than that estimated in previous studies. We compared and discussed with previous studies.
Long-term measurements of greenhouse and reactive gases, and aerosols, at Saclay/SIRTA observatory in the Ile de France Region as part of ICOS and ACTRIS  
Authors: Bouillon Laura , Gros Valérie , Petit Jean-Eudes , Bonnaire Nicolas , Ramonet Michel , Lopez Morgan , Philippon Carole , Yver Kwok Camille
Published: March 2024

Today, around 7 million deaths a year worldwide are linked to air pollution. Moreover, urban planning projections show that by 2050, there will be 2 billion more people in cities, further increasing the contribution of cities to rising CO2 emissions. In addition, this could lead to health problems linked to deteriorating air quality.Our study focuses on the city of Paris and the Ile de France region, where the main pollutant and CO2 emission sectors are road traffic and the residential sector. Depending on the emission sector, there is co-emission between pollutants and greenhouse gases which can be used to link atmospheric observations of those components to a particular sector. This so-called multi-component atmospheric approach can therefore complement the information provided by sectorial inventories. This study uses data measured on the Saclay peri-urban site to analyze long-term time series of CO2 and pollutants with meteorological conditions and surface emissions.At Saclay, the ACTRIS SIRTA station measures reactive gases, and aerosol while the ICOS tall tower measures greenhouse gases. The two stations are not co-located but are only 2 km apart. The compounds chosen for this study are CO2, CO, CH4, from the ICOS tower, and NOx, O3, and black carbon (BC) from the SIRTA site. The BC has been separated into wood burning (BCwb) and fossil fuel (BCff) contributions. The data from the two stations cover more than ten years of measurements for all the compounds mentioned. Since Saclay is located about 20km from southwest Paris, it was necessary to distinguish between two geographical sectors. An urban sector with the main contribution from Paris and a rural sector for comparison with concentrations close to background levels. The two sectors account for more than 44% of total data.The diurnal cycles of the studied compounds show similar patterns in the urban and rural sectors but with very contrasted amplitudes. The NO2, BCff, and CO cycles in the urban sector are strongly driven by the traffic with morning and evening peaks corresponding to the rush hours. On the other hand, BCwb diurnal cycle peaks mainly in the evening as expected with the timing of the residential heating, and contrary to other species the amplitudes of the maximum are higher in the rural sector. This can be explained by the larger use of wood burning in the rural areas, whereas it is strictly regulated in Paris.The diurnal cycle of CO2 peaks in the morning mainly due to photosynthesis, but a share comes from emissions from transport or the tertiary sector. Species ratios, such as CO/CO2 and NO2/CO2, are calculated for further study and comparison with emission inventories.The study will also include analysis of seasonal cycles and long-term trends for the two geographical sectors.
Advancing sediment fingerprinting techniques: The importance of considering sediment mixtures data in tracer selection
Authors: Gaspar Leticia , Latorre Borja , Lizaga Ivan , Navas Ana
Published: March 2024

Sediment fingerprinting has become a key tool to identify and quantify sediment sources within a catchment. The technique involves statistical testing of a range of properties of source materials to identify a set of tracers that can effectively discriminate between different potential sources before estimating the source contributions with unmixing models. However, despite its increasing popularity among researchers, there is a lack of standardized procedures for tracer selection, which is crucial to estimating a reliable contribution of sediment sources. The most widespread methodology consisted of an initial mass conservation test, usually termed range test (RT), followed by the use of Kruskal-Wallis (KW) and discriminant function analysis (DFA) tests. However, KW and DFA even though identifies the best combination of tracers that provide the maximum discrimination between sources, do not incorporate the information of the sediment mixtures in the analysis. Novel methods highlight the importance of selecting the right tracers for each individual mixture and avoid the inclusion of tracers out of consensus or with non-conservative behavior by using consensus ranking (CR) and consistent tracer selection (CTS) methods. This contribution addresses the role of selecting appropriate tracers, demonstrating their impact on the results of the unmixing model. The main objectives are to emphasize the importance of considering the information provided by the sediment mixture in the selection of tracers and to pay attention to the impact of having sediment mixtures with values below the detection limit of the tracer being selected for source discrimination. A set of experimental and real sediment mixtures were selected to explore the different tracer selection methods, comparing the tracers selected and the contribution of sources obtained using the FingerPro unmixing model. We present the results of rigorously testing methodologies with the aim of understanding and assessing the suitability of each tracer selection method to select a combination of statistical and process-based criteria to select appropriate sediment properties for the unmixing models. Our findings highlight the importance of considering the information on the sediment mixture information for the selection of potential tracers, an aspect often neglected by conventional methods. This oversight can result in biased findings due to the use of tracers that are either not coherent or not conservative.
Synthesis of methane emissions estimates from the Nord Stream subsea pipeline leaks
Authors: Harris Stephen , Schwietzke Stefan ,   Nord Stream Co-Authors
Published: March 2024

The Nord Stream subsea pipeline leaks in September 2022 resulted in an unprecedented amount of methane to be released to the atmosphere. However, the total amount emitted remains ambiguous, reflected in a wide range of pipeline volumetric estimates (bottom-up) and measurement-based (top-down) emissions estimates.
To derive a conclusive estimate of emissions, the United Nations Environment Programme’s International Methane Emissions Observatory (UNEP’s IMEO) has brought together a multitude of research groups spanning several disciplines to synthesise, contextualise and, where possible, reanalyse modelled emissions estimates. In this presentation, we present new pipeline rupture emission rate simulations and compare them with various top-down quantification approaches applied to the Nord Stream pipeline leaks. We show that our simulated bottom-up
emissions are reconciled with airborne, satellite and tall tower estimates over various points throughout the emission event, indicating our cumulative total is a robust estimate of emissions.
UNEP’s IMEO’s approach of synthesising and reanalysing existing data from all available sources assists in overcoming the methodological limitations of the individual approaches and provides a more holistic quantification of methane emissions from the Nord Stream pipeline leaks. This approach demonstrates how sharing data generated from various disciplines and quantification platforms can be used to overcome key assumptions when modelling and quantifying emissions. More generally, this study highlights the benefits of applying diverse measurement approaches to quantifying methane emissions in support of reduction commitments such as the Global Methane Pledge.
 
Affiliations
1-20 listed in Authors' Affiliations section
21. Deutscher Wetterdienst, Frankfurter Strasse 135, 63067 Offenbach, Germany
22. National Centre for Earth Observation, STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL), Chilton, UK
23. Remote Sensing Group, STFC Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, Chilton, UK
24. Technische Universität Braunschweig, Institute of Flight Guidance, Braunschweig, Germany
25. Enagás Transporte SAU, Madrid, Spain
26. GHGSat Inc., Montreal, Canada
27. Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
28. National Centre for Earth Observation, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
29. School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
30. School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, United States
31. Key Laboratory of Coastal Environment and Resources of Zhejiang Province, School of Engineering, Westlake University, Hangzhou, Zhejiang Province, 310030, China
Methane Emissions from Wildfires: Trends and Anomalies
Authors: Kondragunta Shobha , Zhu AIhua
Published: March 2024

Biomass burning is an important source of aerosol emissions that greatly deteriorates air quality near the source and downwind regions. More importantly, large amounts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) such as carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) are emitted from wildfires. A quantitative estimate of emissions from biomass burning is vital to understand the fire impacts on climate, weather, environment and public health because wildfires are projected to increase in frequency, severity, and extent in the warming climate. As one of the major climate drivers but with relatively short lifetime in the atmosphere, CH4 is an attractive mitigation target to restrict the pace of global warming. The estimation of spatially and temporally resolved CH4 emissions from the biomass burning sector provides critical information in developing measurement-informed CH4 inventories and assessing mitigation strategies and policy decision making. Satellite observations of fire radiative power is one pathway to investigate wildfires around the world. The Global Biomass Burning Emissions Product (GBBEPx) algorithm is employed to estimate long-term temporal variation and geographic distribution of CH4 emissions using satellite observations from Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Suomi NPP and NOAA-20 Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS). Globally, about 23 teragrams of CH4 are emitted from biomass burning every year, with nearly 49% of it released from Africa alone. We will present inter-annual variability of CH4 emissions and describe the magnitude of emissions from notable big fires such as the 2020 gigafire in California and 2023 Canadian fires, to compare and contrast emissions from biomass burning source sector versus various anthropogenic sources.
Integrated Water Planning Portal: Feasibility study for a development-oriented digital twin to facilitate integrated water management through targeted data and model sharing.
Authors: Rico Carranza Eduardo
Published: March 2024

Recently, we have seen an increase in models that combine powerful technical simulations with efficient visualizations and user interfaces that support decision-making in environmental and urban policies. These tools, known as Digital Twins (DTs) have been currently applied to water management and cities, however, their use tends to be limited to reduced groups of technical experts, policymakers and city officials, with the models behind these tools not being openly available, even though they may be publicly funded. Simultaneously developers, who may be interested in using these models to assess their proposals, cannot access them and must develop their local models, in many cases trying to catch up with new legislation.  A more efficient and open method could be implemented based on sharing evidence-based models through the planning application process. We call this an Integrated Water Planning Portal (IWPP), which consists of a web platform that gives developers access to a water systems model to test their proposals and use this work in the planning application process, which can be done through the same platform. In parallel to this, planners can use the portal to review this work, comment on it or give a final planning verdict. For such a system to work, robust data-sharing and model deployment protocols need to be implemented to strike a balance between accuracy, understandability and data protection. We present work on the feasibility of IWPP, based on prototype development and semi-structured interviews with stakeholders in the UK water management field. Evidence from this work suggests a targeted approach to modelling and data collection which is presented in a model framework. This approach satisfies the requirements of different stakeholders and provides a robust base for further development of tools such as IWPP.
Earth Observation Based Digital Twin Components of the Earth System
Authors: Malina Edward , Wearing Martin , Fernandez Diego
Published: March 2024

Climate change represents one of the most urgent challenges facing society today, with rising sea levels, increasing ocean acidification, more frequent and intense extreme events such as floods, heat waves and droughts, impacting across different sectors, ecosystems, and endangering human lives and property. Population growth is also expected to amplify current pressures on critical resources such as freshwater and food, intensify the stress on land and marine ecosystems, and increase environmental pollution, impacting health and biodiversity.  The latest advances in Earth Observation (EO) science and R&D activities are opening the door to a new generation of EO data products, novel applications and scientific breakthroughs offering a novel, advanced and holistic view of the Earth system, its processes, and its interactions with human activities and ecosystems. These emerging capabilities offer unique opportunities for an enhanced and extensive use of EO technology in the development of digital twins. In particular, those EO developments together with new advances in sectorial modelling, computing capabilities, AI and digital technologies offer excellent building blocks to realise novel EO-based Digital Twin Components (EO DTCs) that may contribute and maximise the impact of EO satellite technology in the design and implementation of future operational Digital TwinsThe ESA Digital Twin Earth programme aims at developing and demonstrating, to a pre-operational stage, a set of EO-based DTCs as advanced replicas of key components of the Earth system including their interactions with human activities and ecosystems. These EO DTCs shall be designed to serve a wide variety of users and with a strong focus on valorising the role of EO capabilities. With this presentation, we highlight ESA’s basic principles and functional design elements for the development of EO-based DTCs, provide a scientific and technical roadmap for the development of future DTCs, along with their interaction with the DestinE initiative. Furthermore, we will highlight the eight priority thematic domains for DTC development, based on feedback from the scientific community, and highlight the tasks to be undertaken to achieve DTC demonstrators. This includes, allowing users to access, analyse, visualise and interact with advanced EO-data, represent Earth system processes and feedbacks, scientifically sound integration of EO-data, models, AI, hybrid methods to generate high spatial and temporal resolution datasets, and facilitating what-if scenarios.
Statistical approaches to the integration of multi-proxy data for the reconstruction of high and low water episodes in Central Europe of the last millennium
Authors: Kahle Michael , Glaser Rüdiger
Published: March 2024

Based on monthly resolved temperature and precipitation indices for Central Europe since 1500, which are derived from the virtual research environment tambora.org, statistical methods are presented to use the drought and moisture indices derived from tree ring data such as the scPDSI by Cook et al. (2015), long historical indexed flood series (Bloeschl et al (2020) as well as local and regional wine quality series to improve and refine periods of high and low water levels. Additionally, it will be demonstrated, how this approach can be used to interpolate climate parameters not only temporally but also spatially.Therefore Bayesian methods are used to mutually verify and derive existing indices that are available on different scales. Furthermore, the references of indices to text quotes are mapped automatically. This not only makes the direct weather, weather and climate descriptions accessible, but also their immediate causes as well as the consequences and effects on the environment and societies. Overall, with this approach, new text quotes can be automatically analysed and integrated into the data pool. This also creates a bridge between historical and recent data and information.
Influence of cropping and fertilization on soil macropore characteristics in a long-term field study
Authors: Koestel John , Fukumasu Jumpei , Nimblad-Svensson David
Published: March 2024

It is known that soil organic carbon (SOC) is positively correlated with soil aggregation and total porosity. Similarly simple relationships between SOC content and abundance of pores in specific diameter ranges seem however elusive. In this study, we used X-ray tomography to investigate if this may be explained by treatment-specific differences in biopore forming agents, in other words soil faunal communities and root growth. We therefore compared the pore and biopore network characteristics in the topsoil of an ongoing long-term field experiment in Ultuna, Sweden, which was started in 1956. We selected three contrasting treatments that had led to significantly different SOC contents, ranging from 0.9 to 2.1% in weight, namely: a bare fallow and two cropped plots with two different fertilization treatments, mineral N-fertilizing with Ca(NO3)2 and farm yard manure (FYM). Sixteen undisturbed soil cores were sampled in eight small (ø 22.5 mm; height 65.5 mm) and eight large (ø 65.5 mm; height 74.8 mm) columns from each treatment, respectively (48 samples in total). The results of our study are in line with empirical knowledge that soil treatments associated with increased carbon contents exhibit larger porosities. However, we observed that the abundance and size distribution of biopores at different scales exhibited treatment-specific differences that cannot be explained with SOC content differences alone. Instead, they must have been caused by distinct root morphologies (or complete absence of roots) and/or by differences in soil faunal communities. Our study demonstrates that simple relationships between soil organic matter content and soil macropore network properties must not be taken for granted.
Is the asymmetry of dolines in the Central Styrian Karst determined by periglacial processes? 
Authors: Bauer Christian , Kellerer-Pirklbauer Andreas , Wagner Thomas
Published: March 2024

The formation of dolines (or sinkholes) lasts commonly for long periods of time exceeding 10 ka or even 100 ka. Climatic conditions over such long timescales might vary substantially and thus dolines in nowadays temperate climatic conditions were substantially shaped during markedly different climates, namely the colder conditions which dominated during the Pleistocene. In this contribution we focus on a specific form of dolines which are located at the eastern boundary of the European Alps in the so-called Central Styrian Karst (CSK) where periglacial conditions dominated during the colder periods of the Pleistocene. The CSK comprises the occurrence of karst formations in carbonate rocks near Graz, Austria. Unlike in alpine regions further west, this area remained unaffected by Pleistocene glacial erosion and was never glaciated. Given the absence of glacial erosion and the dominance of subaerial processes, (karst-) morphological features are assumed to exist since a long period of time. Consequently, the CSK is a prominent area to investigate landscape evolution in a non-glaciated Alpine area where karstifiable rock were also affected by periglacial processes during the colder periods of the Pleistocene. In addition, the landscape comprises numerous planation surfaces grouped into several levels dating to several Mio. yrs BP. Previously unknown for the CSK are the asymmetries of many dolines detected recently due to airborne laser scanning data. These dolines exhibit a NW-SE elongation, with steeper slopes facing S-to-SE, and flatter ones facing N-to-NW. Some authors have attributed asymmetric dolines in other regions to tectonic influences. However, dolines in close proximity to main fault systems in the CSK do not display these peculiar asymmetries. In addition, dolines further away from the main fault systems show obvious asymmetries. The detected asymmetries of dolines occur at various levels ranging from 540 to 780 m a.s.l. indicating possibly different ages of formation. This contradicts a syngenetic origin of elongation and suggests subsequent re-shaping after primary formation of dolines. Similar asymmetries observed in the Northern Calcareous Alps further to the north have been interpreted as the result of snow-patches, where prevailing wind directions cause snow accumulation in the lee side of doline rims. This type of karst is known as nival karst, which requires the absence of glacial erosion and permafrost to impede subsurface drainage. The CSK satisfies the climatic conditions for the development of nival karst during colder periods of the Pleistocene as judged from past periglacial climate estimations for this area. We hypothesize that the morphometry and formation of asymmetric dolines in the CSK must be seen in relation to a severe periglacial influence and are thus a legacy of (severe/long-term?) periglacial conditions of the past.
Predicting geo-effectiveness two days prior to CME impact with EUHFORIA
Authors: Poedts Stefaan , Doumen Senne , Maharana Anwesha , Wintoft Peter , Baratashvili Tinatin
Published: March 2024

The EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA, Pomoell and Poedts, 2018), a physics-based and data-driven heliospheric and CME propagation model can predict the solar wind plasma and magnetic field conditions at Earth. It contains several flux-rope CME models, such as the simple spheromak models and the more advanced FRi3D and toroidal CME models. This enables the prediction of the sign and strength of the magnetic field components upon the arrival of the CME at Earth and, thus, the geo-effectiveness of the CME impact. EUHFORIA has been coupled to several global magnetosphere models like OpenGGCM, GUMICS-4, and Gorgon-Space. In addition, the synthetic data at L1 (from the EUHFORIA simulation) can be used as input for empirical models and neural networks to predict the geomagnetic indices like Disturbance-storm-time (Dst) or Kp that quantify the impact of the magnetized plasma encounters on Earth’s magnetosphere. Hence, we also coupled EUHFORIA to empirical models (Obrien and McPherron, 2000b, and Newell et al, 2006) and machine learning (NARMAX, and the models from Wintoft et al. (2017 and 2021)) based models to predict the geomagnetic indices. We then compare the results of these models to observational data to evaluate their performance in predicting the geo-effect indices. To quantify these comparisons, we use the advanced dynamic time warping method. Since we use synthetic data from the EUHFORIA simulations, we can obtain the input parameters for running the geomagnetic indices models two to three days in advance, unlike the 60-90 minutes lead time of the real-time measurements. 

We perform ensemble modelling considering the L1 monitor precision in its orbit as well as the uncertainty in the initial CME parameters (longitude and latitude) at launch, for error quantification. This is done by evaluating the geomagnetic index models using synthetic data from the virtual satellites around L1 in EUHFORIA’s simulation domain. In addition, we also investigate the impact of the spatio-temporal resolution of EUHFORIA output in forecasting the geomagnetic indices, exploiting the adaptive mesh refinement feature in ICARUS (Baratashvili et al., 2022). Overall, this study validates various space weather forecasting model chains and checks the best compatibility and predictive capabilities using EUHFORIA data for operational space weather forecasting.  
Crossing the Valley of Death : Transitioning Weather Research to Operations in NOAA
Authors: Kondragunta Chandra , Pratt Aaron , Garrett Kevin , Kurkowski Nicole , Sellers Wendy , Kunkel Valbona
Published: March 2024

In 2016, the U. S. Congress created the Joint Technology Transfer Initiative (JTTI) program in the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (OAR), the research wing of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  Within OAR, the Weather Program Office (WPO) is responsible for managing the JTTI program.  The main mission of this program is to continuously develop and transition the mature weather technologies from the research community to the National Weather Service (NWS) operations.  JTTI selects promising Research to Operations (R2O) transition projects through two types of competitions: one for the external community (non-NOAA) that includes private, academic sectors and non-profit organizations through Notices of Funding Opportunities; and the other for the NOAA scientific community.  Additionally, the JTTI program collaborates with the NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration (OSTI) and provides funding for the Unified Forecasting System - R2O project and testbed activities.  JTTI-funded R2O projects cover three main frameworks within the NWS forecasting operations: the observational, modeling, and products and services frameworks.  The topics covered include data assimilation; convective scale weather modeling; stochastic physics; ensemble model building; hydrologic modeling; post-processing of model output on time scales ranging from hourly to subseasonal; high impact weather forecasting tools; artificial intelligence/machine learning; and social behavioral and economic science. To date, the JTTI program has funded 155 R2O projects and transitioned 20 projects to the NWS operations.  In this paper, we present the JTTI implementation process in NOAA and share some of the successful R2O stories.
Isotope Analysis as a tool for climate metrology at PTB: a novel approach to oxygen-17 correction
Authors: Werhahn Olav , Flierl Lukas , Rienitz Olaf
Published: March 2024

The isotopic composition of carbon dioxide is a powerful tool in many scientific areas and normally reported as isotope δ’s, viz. δ13CVPDB in case of carbon and δ18OVPDB-CO2 in case of oxygen. These two isotopic quantities must be calculated from the measured molecular quantities. This includes an 17O correction, which is an important step in data evaluation. Due to the measurement conditions, typically available experimental information is insufficient on 17Oand the calculative correction must be done iteratively. The fact that there is no analytical solution complicates the calculation of δ13CVPDB and δ18OVPDB-CO2 as well as the calcuation of the associated uncertainties. Therefore, Brand et al. [1] suggested a linear approximation which performs quite well. Moreover, Brand et al. presented a simplified scheme for uncertainty estimation. Here, we present an alternative approximation [2] which outperforms the established one leading to much smaller deviations from the exact solutions and to uncertainty calculations according to the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) [3]. These approximations are implemented in an EXCEL Add-in, which allows potential users to gain full control over their data evaluation and to check the data received from commercial IRMS software in a spreadsheet.This work is embedded in PTB’s commitment to the metrology for environment and climate which is overseen by the Innovation Cluster Environment & Climate [4].References
[1]

W. A. Brand, S. S. Assonov und T. B. Coplen, „Correction for the 17O interference in δ(¹³C) measurements when analyzing CO₂ with stable isotope mass spectrometry (IUPAC Technical Report),“ Pure Appl. Chem., Bd. 82, p. 1719–1733, January 2010.

[2]

L. Flierl und O. Rienitz, „OCEAN – an EXCEL Add-in for 17O Correction using a novel Approximation,“ MethodsX, p. 102529, 2023.

[3]

Joint Committee for Guides in Metrology, „JCGM 100: Evaluation of Measurement Data - Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement,“ 2008.

[4]

Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt, „Innovation Cluster Environment & Climate,“ [Online]. Available: https://www.ptb.de/cms/en/research-development/ptbs-innovation-clusters/innovationscluster-umwelt-klima.html.

 
Learning from past changes in Mediterranean Thermohaline Circulation
Authors: Cacho Isabel , Pena Leopoldo , Frigola Jaime , Català Albert , de la Fuente Maria , Trias Sergi , Campderrós Sara , Selvaggi Mar , Torner Judit , Margaritelli Giulia , Pérez-Asensio José Noel , Corbera Guillem , Evangelinos Dimitris , Lirer Fabrizio
Published: March 2024

Mediterranean thermohaline circulation is a very sensitive system to changes in regional climate conditions. The current warming conditions have already been transferred into the deep water properties, and future projections indicate an overall weakening of this circulation system. In this context, it becomes extremely relevant understanding the natural range of variability of this system and the interplay between the different basins and sub-basins controlling deep and intermediate convection in the Mediterranean Sea. Here we use the past record as a natural laboratory to learn on the impact that different climate forcings had in this circulation system, and also evaluating its consequences in the Mediterranean Outflow Water (MOW) and thus in the Atlantic oceanography. These are the main results of the ERC-Consolidator grant TIMED, devoted to understanding of past changes in Mediterranean thermohaline circulation. This new data set is based in a variety of proxies that are sensitive to ocean circulation changes such as U/Mn ratios measured in the foraminifera diagenetic coatings, Nd isotopes, absolute dating on deep sea corals, among other geochemical and sedimentological tools applied in sediment cores from both E- and W-Med. The obtained results indicate the deglacial development of an intense minimum oxygen zone in the W-Med associated to the LIW which extended down to at least 950m. These evidences support by the first time, that the formation of the deglacial Organic Rich Layer was also connected to a weakening of E-Med convection, this would indicate a long pre-conditioning prior to the last Sapropel (S1) that would start with last Heinrich event in the North Atlantic and fully develop with the onset of the African humid period. We identify that an intense aridification and cooling of the E-Med driven by the AMOC weakening of the Younger Dryas was responsible of a strong reactivation of E-Med convection that resulted in a stronger MOW, and also triggered enhanced deep intermediate convection in the W-Med. This circulation change pushed out an old water mass previously accumulated in the Med for several centuries with major consequences in deep ecosystems sustained by deep sea corals. The onset of the last S1 in the E-Med led to major changes in deep convection in both E and W-Med, but with opposite sign in their response. These results highlight the tide connection between the AMOC and E-Med convection and rise questions on the potential role that the associate changes in the MOW could have on the AMOC, particularly during weak stages.
Future global wildfire regimes under high and low climate mitigation efforts 
Authors: Haas Olivia , Prentice Colin , Harrison Sandy P.
Published: March 2024

There is growing concern over future trajectories of burning on Earth. One the one hand, some regions have seen the emergence of large and novel wildfires, whilst satellite observations continue to show declining burnt area globally, most notably in the tropics. Quantifying the response of global wildfire regimes to future changes in especially challenging given that wildfires are driven by climate, vegetation, and human activities, and that these different factors may have contrasting and opposing effects.Using global empirical models of burnt area, fire size and fire intensity we explore the trajectory of future fire regimes under high and low climate change mitigation efforts. The models are driven by lightning ignitions, climate, vegetation properties, topography, and human factors. Making use of a set of sensitivity analysis, we show a global shift in wildfire patterns by the end of the 21st century even with warming kept below 1.5°. Burning will generally be reduced in tropical regions but larger and more intense wildfires will occur in extra-tropical regions. Under low mitigation, increases in burnt area worldwide overwhelm the human-driven decline, with up to a 60% increase in burnt area by the end of the century. However, fire size and intensity will be increasingly limited by dryness and vegetation fragmentation.These results suggest that even under high climate change mitigation, fire management strategies must urgently be revised as current fire-suppression policies will no longer be effective in much of the world. Regional-level fire management, led by local stakeholders, should be encouraged. Wildfire risk and management must also be incorporated into mitigation scenarios that rely on extending forest area if these mitigation scenarios want to remain realistic.
Redefining decision making: introducing probabilistic forecast products to aviation applications
Authors: Barras Hélène , Attinger Roman , Aznar Gabriela , Irrgang Melanie , Landmann Johannes , Reiniger Thomas , Wehrli Kathrin , Exterde Szilvia , Jordi Thomas , Stocker Claudia
Published: March 2024

There are no aviation operations without reliable weather information. Efficient and safe air traffic management relies on accurate meteorological predictions on different timescales from nowcasting to the midrange. On top of that, it is crucial to enable a safe interpretation of uncertain weather data so that these forecasts are fruitful for planning and decision making within aircraft operations.So far, the aviation meteogram product issued by MeteoSwiss consists of deterministic predictions and threshold exceedance probabilities. This does not exploit the full potential of the underlying forecasts, as (1) deterministic predictions may be biased, and (2) the current product does not present the full uncertainty picture to decision makers.In response to these challenges, we propose a transition towards delivering probabilistic forecasts. This shift unlocks the full potential of information-based decision making, which finally allows smoother and  economically and ecologically more sustainable aviation operations. Importantly, as probabilistic data and its potential is largely unknown to our customers so far, a robust program of frequent training and education is necessary.In this presentation, we showcase new machine learning ensemble predictions for thunderstorms, wind, and visibility at airports in Switzerland for the nowcasting and short-term forecasting range. In particular, we focus on their comprehensive visualization in a meteogram tailored to convey ensemble information and discuss challenges, advantages and future ideas.
Low-latency flood inundation mapping with airborne GNSS-R
Authors: Andreadis Konstantinos , Moller Delwyn
Published: March 2024

The Rongowai project, based in New Zealand, represents a groundbreaking initiative in earth observation using next-generation Global Navigation Satellite Systems Reflectometry (GNSS-R) sensors. A NASA-developed sensor mounted on an Air New Zealand Q300 passenger aircraft collects land-surface and coastal data daily between airport hubs across the country. This project builds upon NASA's CYGNSS constellation, initially designed for sensing ocean surface winds but later expanded to terrestrial sensing due to the sensitivity of GNSS-R measurements to various surface properties of water. The next-generation GNSS-R receiver (NGRx) offers enhanced capabilities beyond CYGNSS, providing increased simultaneous measurements and introducing new measurement capabilities like polarimetry for improved land characterization. The unique mission model of Rongowai emphasizes sustainability while maintaining high-quality observations, utilizing an existing commercial Air New Zealand aircraft for data collection, thereby achieving unprecedented spatio-temporal sampling throughout New Zealand. The Air New Zealand Q300 operates approximately 7-8 flights daily in a hub-and-spoke pattern across major centers in New Zealand, offering near-ideal operational characteristics for capturing dynamic events. Here, we present a system that leverages the flight characteristics of the Q300 to deliver low-latency inundation observations immediately after landing, providing near real-time data transmission from the preceding flight. The framework, named the Flood Assessment Spatial Triage (FAST) addresses the challenge of data latency in flood reconnaissance by providing rapid inundation detection and visualization on an on-demand flight-by-flight basis within an hour after landing. The processing chain of FAST involves geolocation of specular points, coherence detection, and overlaying transects on a high-resolution digital elevation model (DEM) using a simplified flood inundation model. Analysis of GNSS-R waveforms demonstrates the ability to robustly observe inundation even in challenging conditions such as cloud cover, nighttime, and vegetated areas. Our study period captured flooding events in New Zealand's North Island during the Southern hemisphere summer of 2023, particularly in areas affected by Cyclone Gabrielle. The inundation observations from February 2023 depicted regions with surface water not classified as permanent water bodies, and a combination with a physically-based algorithm allowed for mapping flood inundation from the relatively sparse Rongowai observations. Our results align with ground reports of flooding, highlighting the potential for valuable reconnaissance information from GNSS-R when transiting affected regions. Rongowai's higher spatial resolution, combined with its hub-and-spoke flight pattern, enables rapid revisits over affected regions, making it well-suited for dynamic and rapidly evolving processes like floods.
Combining Aerial and Ground Surveys to Quantify Oil and Gas Sector Methane Emissions in Colombia
Authors: Calderon-Cangrejo Nikolai , Festa-Bianchet Simon A. , Conrad Bradley M. , Tyner David R. , Wilde Shona E. , Johnson Matthew R.
Published: March 2024

Curbing methane emissions is a crucial aspect of achieving emissions reduction targets across the world. This is particularly important in Colombia, where it is estimated that 24% of anthropogenic methane emissions originate from the energy sector (IEA, 2023). However, the mitigation potential remains hampered by a lack of understanding of emission sources in the field and limited access to accurate official inventories.  The objective of this study is to develop a comprehensive inventory of methane emissions within the oil and gas industry in Colombia. The implemented framework consists of a hybrid inventory that integrates top-down, source-resolved aerial measurements with bottom-up measurements following the published methodology of Johnson et al., Comms. Earth & Environ, 2023. This approach not only facilitates a detailed attribution of emission sources but also quantifies the measurement and sample size uncertainties, employing the detection probability of the airborne sensor, Monte Carlo analysis, and bootstrap analysis.  For this study, around 3,400 facilities were included in the top-down campaign, complemented by a select sample of facilities in a parallel bottom-up campaign. The total facility sample covers six different production regions across five departments, including a wide range of oil and gas facilities and production types. This presentation will discuss the initial results of the field campaigns and progress towards the completion of a first-ever measurement-based methane inventory for Colombia that is intended to be used to support verified reporting under the International Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP 2.0).
Marine snowstorm during the Permian−Triassic mass extinction  
Authors: Grasby Stephen , Ardakani Omid , Liu Xiaojun , Bond David , Wignall Paul , Strachan Lorna
Published: March 2024

The Permian−Triassic mass extinction (PTME) interval is marked by major excursions in both inorganic and organic carbon (C) isotopes. Carbon cycle models predict that these trends were driven by large increases in productivity, yet organic C−rich rocks are not recorded in most PTME shelf sedimentary successions. Anomalous C-rich facies have been reported from rare abyssal plains records now exposed in Japan and New Zealand, where black shales at the PTME are extraordinarily organic-rich units. We examined organic matter at the Waiheke, New Zealand, section, and results show that these deposits are dominated by lamalginites composed of unicellar solitary or colonial phytoplankton produced during algal blooms that falls as “marine snow.” We modeled the impact of ash fall from eruptions in the Siberian Traps large igneous province and argue that they fertilized the Panthalassa Ocean with P and Fe, leading to a marine “snowstorm” and significant C drawdown marking this major biobloom during the PTME.