bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Resilience analysis in tourism destinations: Reflections from a development cooperation project
Authors: Eckert Elena , Posch Eva , Thiebes Benni
Published: February 2023

Cross-cutting industries such as tourism face many risks due to an increase of hazards as well as underlying socio-economic drivers. These developments have reinforced the necessity to build resilience and include risk-informed management in tourism. While these approaches have evolved as key concepts in research, development practice, and in the private sector, tourism destinations in the Global South often lack data, financial resources, or institutional capacities for analysing and managing risks and build resilience. The project ‘Destination Resilience’ examined how disaster resilience in tourism destinations in the Global South can be best analysed and strengthened. We developed a 5-step approach that supports the analysis and management of different risks in tourism destinations and involves a wide set of tourism actors from private and public sectors to enhance the overall resilience of their destinations. The 5-step approach consists of a variety of participatory methods including focus groups, gallery walks, workshop discussions and questionnaires and was implemented in Sri Lanka, the Dominican Republic, and Namibia. Following the 5-step approach, we analysed the tourism system, identified key risks for tourism in the given destinations (e.g., floods, landslides, hurricanes, and droughts) and explored options for action to build disaster resilience. Based on an evaluation workshop, content analysis and expert interviews, we explored and tested the approach in terms of its social functionality, technical applicability, and cultural transferability as well as its ability to improve risk awareness among tourism actors. Our findings indicate that addressing risks in tourism destinations is complex due to the systemic character and complex interplay of risks and the tourism industry. The findings also highlight the importance (a) to engage a wide range of stakeholders to overcome issues such as data availability or lack of feeling of responsibility; (b) to address tourism destinations as systems consisting of a wide set of actors; (c) to use common terminology across sectors and countries; and (d) to proactively address risk in tourism destinations. The described research activities have been implemented by DKKV and Futouris with support of the Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH on behalf of the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ).
The significance of the Pleistocene periglacial loess-palaeosol sequences study for the knowledge of the Palaeolithic of Ukraine
Authors: Tomeniuk Olena , Bogucki Andriy
Published: February 2023

The Pleistocene periglacial loess-palaeosol series covers about 70% of the territory of Ukraine. The loess-palaeosol mantle of the Volhynian and Podolian uplands, which are the reference region of our many years of research, is even larger, almost continuous in area. Loess is also widespread on the surfaces of the high river terraces in the Forecarpathians.Dozens of key sections of the Quaternary deposits were studied in Volhyn-Podillia and Forecarpathians using the most modern analytical methods. Among them are sections of Novovolynsk, Boyanychi, Torchyn, Horokhiv, Korshiv, Dubno, Rivne, Basiv Kut, Zdolbuniv (Volhynian upland), Velykyi Hlybochok, Proniatyn, Ihrovytsia, Ternopil, Malyi Khodachkiv, Pidvolochysk, Volochysk, Krasnosilka, Sharovechka, Yarmolyntsi, Letychiv, Vanzhuliv (Podolian upland), Halych, Kolodiiv, Torhanovychi (transition zone to the Forecarpathian upland), etc. P. Tutkovskyi developed an aeolian hypothesis of loess origin (1899) based on the materials of the study of loess deposits in the west of Ukraine, and W. Łoziński introduced the concept of "periglacial" into scientific circulation in 1909.In the loess-palaeosol series of the west of Ukraine, a number of well-known Palaeolithic sites were discovered and studied, namely the Lower Palaeolithic site of Korolevo, the Middle Palaeolithic sites of Yezupil I, Yezupil II, Mariampil I, Mariampil V, Velykyi Hlybochok I, Proniatyn, Ihrovytsia, Buhliv V, Upper Palaeolithic sites of Vanzhuliv (Zamchysko), Kulychivka, Lypa and many others.The significance of the study of the periglacial loess-palaeosol sequences for the study of the Palaeolithic of Ukraine is as follows.Solving the problems of stratification of Palaeolithic cultural horizons, substantiation of their age. The results of absolute dating of the Quaternary deposits are important in this context.
Solving the issues of preservation of cultural horizons and their redeposition by diluvial-solifluction processes. Palaeocryogenic analysis, widely used in the study of the loess-palaeosol series of the Pleistocene, is very promising here.
Correlation of Palaeolithic cultural horizons with stratigraphic ones.
The results of the study of loess-palaeosol sequences make it possible to more thoroughly understand the living conditions of ancient people, to study the ways of their migration and adaptations to climate, landscape and ecosystem change.
 AcknowledgementsThis study was supported by the project of the National Research Foundation of Ukraine, grant number 2020.02/0165.
Mitigation of phosphorus and arsenic pollution in soils: from the laboratory to the field
Authors: Antelo Juan , Fiol Sarah , Otero-Fariña Alba , Amini Mitra , Rahnemaie Rasoul , Otero Xose L. , Macías Felipe
Published: February 2023

Phosphorus (P) is an essential element for biomass growth and is a major component of fertilizers applied to crops. Excessive application of P to agricultural soils may lead to P-leaching and increasing concentrations of this element in aqueous system. This may cause the degradation of water quality through eutrophication processes. Arsenic on the other hand is a very toxic element that may be present at high concentrations in soil and aqueous environments due to weathering processes or to anthropogenic sources as mining and agricultural activities.To design adequate remediation techniques for the mitigation of phosphorus (P) and arsenic (As) pollution it is key to understand the geochemical processes and the environmental drivers controlling their availability. In soil systems, the mobility of P and As is controlled by their interaction with soil minerals. Among these minerals, iron and aluminum oxyhydroxides are known to form especially strong surface complexes with both components, limiting its availability to the environment. On the other hand, the presence of soil organic matter may compete with these pollutants for the mineral surface sites, increasing the contamination risk in the soil system.In the present work, we have studied at laboratory scale the As and P adsorption process on iron mineral surfaces under variable conditions. This includes changes of pH, redox conditions, presence of major ions (i.e. calcium, sulfate) or other trace elements (i.e. chromate, copper), and the presence of natural organic matter (i.e. humic substances or simple organic acids). Also, surface complexation models were applied in order to simulate and predict the behavior of such systems. The obtained results reveal that the presence of organic matter or other anionic species are important factors capable of increasing the mobility of P and As contaminants, whereas changing the redox potential or the carbon content in the organo-mineral aggregates has little effect.The information obtained, allowed to design remediation solutions that could be applied at field scale. The soil characteristics and the biogeochemical processes can be improved by the application of amendments based on circular economy aspects, i.e. compost, biochar, Technosols. We have studied the effectiveness of the superficial application of these materials to immobilize both P and As, varying the main environmental drivers affecting to the sorption or desorption processes.
Impact of Minor Ocean Tides on Surface Deformations and the Earth’s Gravity Field
Authors: Sulzbach Roman , Balidakis Kyriakos , Öhlinger Felix , Mayer-Gürr Torsten , Dobslaw Henryk , Thomas Maik
Published: February 2023

Ocean tides are small, periodic disturbances of the ocean state variables with frequencies related to the solar and lunar ephemerides. Most prominently, they are observed at the coasts by tide gauge measurements, where variations of the free sea surface height are visible even to the bare eye. On the other hand, tide gauges are just one geodetic technique that can identify ocean tide signatures. Especially satellite altimetry is considered the critical technology for constructing highly accurate data-constrained ocean tide atlases. However, the number of frequencies available from such atlases is limited by the signal-to-noise ratio of those observations, so not all tidal lines are readily available. To account for unresolved minor ocean tides, linear admittance approaches are utilized. On the other hand, unconstrained hydrodynamic ocean tide modeling with TiME (Sulzbach et al., 2021, 2022) allows us to calculate the oceanic response for any given tidal line explicitly.Due to the long-wavelength character of ocean tidal loading, its geophysical fingerprint is not restricted to the oceans but extends horizontally (causing deformations of the crust to which instruments are attached) and vertically (causing periodic changes in gravity at orbital heights of in particular low-Earth orbiting satellites). Thus, tidal loading systematically disturbs both satellite orbits and also geodetic observations from ground stations with SLR, GNSS, and DORIS.In this contribution, we compare tidal predictions from different ocean tide atlases. In addition to available Stokes coefficients of the gravity potential, we calculate vertical and horizontal displacements for 34 partial tide solutions from FES14, 17 from EOT20, and 57 from the data-unconstrained model TiME based on a spherical harmonic decomposition of maximum degree 4999. We focus on the influence of minor ocean tide solutions on the tidal predictions either drawn from the broadband TiME22-catalog or derived with the help of linear admittance from EOT20/FES14 major tides. The results are validated with time series of selected geodetic measurement systems to quantify the influence of the minor tide treatment on their residuals to motivate further efforts to reduce ocean tide residuals in precise orbit determination.
Is This Really Still Happening?!
Authors: Wright Kirstie , Mallard Claire , Perez-Diaz Lucia , Arnould Maëlis , Coltice Nicolas
Published: February 2023

Despite quotas, increased advocacy and movements like Me Too and Time’s Up, sexism in science and the wider world is as prevalent as ever. So why could this be? Is it the expectation that as women and minorities are more common in the workplace, the fight for equality and inclusivity has been “won” or the greater recognition of sexist behaviors and microaggressions? Or is it the rise of “incels” and the encouragement of “masculinity influencers” who subscribe to a brand of extreme misogyny?Now in its seventh year, the Did This Really Happen?! project provides a safe space for the submission of anonymised testimonies documenting real lived experiences of everyday sexism in scientific environments, including sexist biases and a range of micro and macro aggressions. These are, in turn, converted into comic strips by the DTRH team, as a way to visualize the stories and start a conversation.Since the project’s inception in 2016, we have received over 150 testimonies which have been turned into about 50 comics, with many more in various stages of preparation. Testimonial topics have ranged from treating women as objects to questioning female competencies and confining males to stereotypical roles (Bocher et al., 2020). In this presentation, we will assess if and how the topics of the stories received within our project have evolved since 2016, and we will attempt to reply to the following question, through the lenses of our project: how has the state of sexism evolved in academia since the start of Did this really happen?!. Using a quantitative analysis of all the stories we have received so far, we will prove that (sadly) our project is as relevant today as when it was started. 
Invaluable insights into the dynamics and water-vapor isotopes of the planetary boundary layer above the Greenland Ice Sheet from fixed-wing uncrewed aircraft samplings.
Authors: Dietrich Laura , Rozmiarek Kevin , Jones Tyler , Morris Valerie , Brashear Chloe , Bennett Hayley , Vaughn Bruce , Town Michael , Werner Martin , Fettweis Xavier , Steen-Larsen Hans Christian
Published: February 2023

The chemistry and aerosols in ice core records are used as proxy data for the past climate. Traditional interpretation of this recorded climate signal is that during formation snow captures a snapshot of the atmosphere. In recent years, observations have documented that the snow surface’s chemistry and isotopic composition change during the post-depositional interaction with the surface-near atmosphere. To more accurately interpret the climate signal in ice cores it is necessary to understand thesource of the water vapor in the planetary boundary layer (PBL), as well as the vertical mixing and transportation in the polar atmosphere. However, the dynamics in the polar PBL are poorly constrained in most climate models due to a lack of observations. Here we present insights from the first Arctic in-situ water-vapor isotope record both within and above the PBL up to 1500 meters above the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) from the EastGRIP ice core camp 2022 field campaign. Flights were performed with a fixed-wing uncrewed aircraft recording high resolution atmospheric profiles. Moreover, air is sampled in glass flasks and brought to the surface for determination of δ18O and δDof water vapor. The observational set-up has been proven to guarantee reliable measurements of the isotopic composition of the atmospheric water vapor in remote locations and under extremely cold temperatures. Based on 105 observed temperature, humidity and isotopic profiles we identify different types of atmospheric structure above the GrIS. We evaluate the vertical atmospheric representation of the polar regional climate model MAR and the isotope-enabled global climate model ECHAM-wiso. Finally, from observations we estimate the height up to which the surface-near δ18O and δD isotopic values are affected by the atmosphere above.
Data Scarcity in Critical Infrastructure Network Modelling: Impacts on Model Performances and Mitigation Strategies
Authors: Schotten Roman , Mühlhofer Evelyn , Chatzistefanou Georgios Alexandros
Published: February 2023

Natural hazards impact the closely webbed infrastructure networks that keep a modern society functional in its current form. A variety of critical infrastructure network (CIN) modelling methods is available to represent functions and purposes of CI networks on different levels of boundaries. A recurring challenge for all modelling approaches is the availability and accessibility of input and validation data. Those gaps constrain modellers to make assumptions for specific technical parameters. In other cases insular expert knowledge from one sector is extrapolated to other sectoral structures or even cross-sectorally applied to fill data gaps. Those assumptions lead to uncertainty and can potentially devalue a per se valuable CIN modelling method.In the presented work, a schematized workflow for a CIN model generation is defined and the potentially needed input datasets are highlighted and categorised. This categorization features obvious CI data like infrastructure component locations, quantitative measures of the services they are supporting and the relation between natural hazard impacts, functionality thresholds and the degree of disruption to a CI structure. It also tackles less straight-forward relations such as  recovery times after disruptions, interdependencies among CIN and the redundancy of those interdependencies. Invariably, the availability of those datasets is tied to a CIN model’s performance, aptness for answering specific problems, and quality. A range of performance indicators are hence compiled including granularity, fidelity, accuracy, sensitivity and the ability to resemble cascading effects. The relation of these performance indicators and data availability are outlined. Finally, it is suggested to overcome the challenges of data scarcity with participatory methods, anonymized data sharing platforms for CI operators and event based datasets.With this contribution, we aim to provide systematised orientation to fellow critical infrastructure network modellers on the diverse data needs throughout the modelling chain, from setting up a model to results validation, explore implications of data scarcity, and suggest mitigation strategies.
Marine Floating Plastic Detection using Open Source Earth Observation resources
Authors: Sannigrahi Srikanta , Pilla Francesco
Published: February 2023

Marine plastic pollution is one of the major environmental problems that human civilization is currently experiencing. Every year more than 300 million tons of plastic are produced; surprisingly, half of them are single-use items such as shopping bags, cups and straws. Every year, around 14 million tons of plastic enter the ocean, and due to the extended life span, this plastic remains in the ocean for about 400-500 years until the degradation starts. Plastic debris is currently the most abundant type of litter in the ocean, contributing to 80% of all marine debris found in the ocean. Plastic waste in the ocean harms a wide variety of marine life, including fish, sea turtles, and marine mammals, as well as birds and other animals that feed on the ocean. In this work, an effort has been made to explore the potential application of open-source earth-observation resources and machine learning algorithms for detecting marine floating plastic (MFP). Different sites were considered for implementing the developed model to see the performance and accuracy of the classifiers. Among the chosen sites, two sites, i.e. Skala Loutron  (Greece), and Limassol (Cyprus), were considered for training the models and two sites, i.e. Calabria (Italy), and Beirut (Lebanon) were used for testing the model. In addition, two machine learning classifiers, i.e. support vector machine (SVM) and random forest (RF), were also used to classify the objects into categories and discriminate floating plastic from other objects.  In-situ ground truth data collected from the controlled experiments conducted in Mytilene, Greece (in 2018 and 2019), Skala Loutron, Greece (2021), and Limassol, Cyprus (2018) were used for training the machine learning classifiers. The trained models were then tested on unseen real-world data collected from Calabria (Italy), and Beirut (Lebanon). The train and test were carried out in five train and test case scenarios to explore the sensitivity of the models in varied datasets. Several Sentinel 2A/B spectral bands and remote sensing spectral indices were used as training inputs for constructing the models.   A newly developed index, kernel Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (kNDVI), was also used in this study to examine its contribution to model performances. Both the classifiers, i.e. SVM and RF performed well for all five models and test case combinations. Among the two ML models, the RF model was found superior in terms of the highest accuracy and precision score. The inclusion of kNDVI was crucial as the same has substantially increased the detection accuracy. Amongst the remote sensing indices used in this study, the Floating Debris Index (FDI) was the most important predictor for detecting marine floating plastic. The outcome of this study collectively suggests that open-source earth observation resources can be an effective alternative for the cost-effective detection of MFP.
Analysing changes in stratospheric water vapour following Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption using UK Earth System Model
Authors: Zhou Xin , Feng Wuhu , Dhomse Sandip , Mann Graham , Chipperfield Martyn
Published: February 2023

Large tropical volcanic eruptions can significantly alter stratospheric water vapour either with direct injection or modifying entry pathways and the quantitative magnitude and time evolution of these changes remain uncertain. Using an ensemble volcanic forcing experiment carried out with version 1 of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1), we explore the changes in the stratospheric water vapour (SWV) by a Pinatubo-like volcanic eruption via modification of the entry pathway. Our simulations show significant increases in SWV three months after the volcanic eruption for the ensemble mean. The increase peaks at 1 ppmv (~17% of the background levels) in the second post-eruption winter and then decays slowly, in accordance with the tropical cold point temperature anomalies. By decomposing the volcanic heating into diabatic aerosol heating and adiabatic dynamical heating, we show that the timing of tropopause heating after the eruption is determined by the seasonal variation of a general decelerated tropical upwelling imposed on the significant direct aerosol heating lasting two years.
Investigating the relationship between stratospheric temperature and intermodel CO2 radiative forcing spread
Authors: Byrom Rachael , Myhre Gunnar
Published: February 2023

Addressing the cause of intermodel spread in carbon dioxide (CO2) radiative forcing is essential for reducing uncertainty in estimates of climate sensitivity. Recent studies demonstrate that a large proportion of this spread arises from variance in model base state climatology, particularly the specification of stratospheric temperature, which itself plays a dominant role in determining the magnitude of CO2 forcing.Here we investigate the significance of intermodel differences in stratospheric ozone (O3) as a cause of intermodel differences in stratospheric temperature, and hence its role as a contributing factor to intermodel spread in CO2 radiative forcing. We use the Community Earth System Model 2 and the Norwegian Earth System Model 2 to analyse the impact of systematic increases/decreases in stratospheric O3 on the magnitude of 2xCO2 and 4xCO2 effective radiative forcing (ERF). Corresponding rapid adjustments and instantaneous radiative forcing (IRF) are diagnosed using radiative kernels and the Parallel Offline Radiative Transfer code, respectively.We demonstrate that differences in base state stratospheric O3 lead to significant differences in base state stratospheric temperature, ranging from +6 K to -8 K given a 50% increase and decrease in stratospheric O3 concentration. However, this does not result in a correspondingly large spread in CO2 IRF and ERF due to the compensating greenhouse effect of CO2 and O3. Intermodel differences in stratospheric O3 concentration are therefore not predominantly responsible for intermodel spread in CO2 IRF and ERF.
Accurate Earthquake Locations of the Adriatic Thrust Fault of the 2021 Seismic Sequence with sP Depth Phases.
Authors: Di Stefano Raffaele , Ciaccio Maria Grazia , Baccheschi Paola , Zhao Dapeng
Published: February 2023

We re-located 70 earthquakes belonging to the seismic sequence started on 2021 March 27th, with a mainshock of Mw 5.2 at 13:47 UTC, in the Central Adriatic region (Italy off-shore) by using the on-purpose designed code by Zhao et al. (2007, 2011), modeling the sP converted phases.The mainshock of the 2021 seismic sequence occurred about 20 km north of the Palagruza island, 80 km from the Gargano promontory and about 40 km from the Croatian island of Lastovo. It was felt in many central-southern Italian regions, from Ancona to Foggia, and in Central Dalmatia. All the epicenters of this seismic sequence lie in the open sea, about 100km to the SE and about 50 km to the NW of the 2003 Jabuka seismic sequence, and the 1988 Palagruza seismic sequence, respectively.Though the seismicity in the central Adriatic Sea has been recorded by improving seismic networks, especially in recent decades, the precise location of the Adriatic offshore earthquakes was hampered mainly by the large distance of the closest stations, and by the large gap in the distribution of seismic stations.The possibility to model the sP depth phases enables us to estimate the epicentral parameters and focal depths of these offshore earthquakes more accurately, thanks to the peculiar ray-path that mimics the presence of a receiver approximately on top of the hypocenter. The refined earthquake locations allow us to make inferences on the structure responsible for the seismicity of the 2021 seismic sequence, a thrust fault NW-SE striking and ~35° NE-dipping, and on its seismotectonic context.The use of depth-phase arrival times to constrain the off-network events' locations is of particular interest to Italy due to both the peculiar shape of the peninsula and the extreme scarcity of seafloor stations, whose cost and management are very expensive and complex.We present the first attempt to apply this off-network location technique to the Italian offshore seismicity with the aim of improving the hazard estimation of these hard-to-monitor regions.
Spatial dynamics of marine dissolved organic matter in the Benguela upwelling system
Authors: Gomez-Saez Gonzalo V , Coskun Ömer K , Oertel Yanik , Niggemann Jutta , Dittmar Thorsten , Ferdelman Timothy G , Orsi William D
Published: February 2023

Marine dissolved organic matter (DOM) is one of the largest active carbon pools on Earth, storing one thousand times more carbon than all living organisms in the ocean combined, and similar amounts of carbon than all CO2 in the atmospheric reservoir. Coastal upwelling systems are extremely productive marine regions where surface waters mix with nutrient-rich waters from below, generating hotspots for carbon cycling with highly active microbial communities in the surface and low dissolved oxygen concentration in the deep waters. However, there is a lack of mechanistic understanding with respect to DOM accumulation in upwelling systems, and the sources and processing of DOM within these productive systems are an understudied topic. Here, we performed a novel spatial analysis of the DOM dynamics in the Benguela upwelling system off Namibia both regionally (from shelf to open ocean) and vertically (from surface ocean to subseafloor). To do so, we applied state-of-the-art molecular characterization of DOM using Fourier transform ion-cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS). By FT-ICR-MS, we identified 29,769 DOM molecular formulas from 75 water column and 8 pore water samples. Molecular DOM analyses were complemented by organic and inorganic quantitative geochemical data and microbial 16S rRNA gene-based diversity coupled with shotgun metagenomic analyses. Furthermore, we performed a set of incubation experiments onboard to test the biodegradability of DOM, with special focus on the dissolved organic sulfur compounds and potential genes involved in sulfur cycling. Preliminary results showed highest differences in the molecular analyses between the sediment pore water DOM and the water column DOM. Most of the variability in the DOM dataset could be explained by the high proportion of compounds containing heteroatoms different than oxygen in the sediments (N, S and P), while oxygen concentrations did not show a clear effect on the DOM molecular composition in the water column. In addition, metagenomic sequencing revealed that marker genes involved in sulfur oxidation and reduction such as periplasmic sulfur-oxidizing proteins (sox), dissimilatory sulfite reductase (dsr), reverse dissimilatory sulfite reductase (rDsr), and adenylyl-sulfate reductase (apr) present throughout the water column and subseafloor. Remarkably, the highest abundance of sulfur-reducing genes was observed in sulfidic sediments whereas sulfur-oxidation genes showed minimal differences in abundance along the water column profile. Further statistical analyses (in progress) will allow us to identify connections between the microbial biosphere and the chemical diversity of DOM, which will help to better understand the mechanisms of biodegradation and accumulation of DOM in coastal upwelling systems and deoxygenated regions.
The International DORIS Service: almost 20 years old.
Authors: Soudarin Laurent , Lemoine Frank , Sellé Arnaud
Published: February 2023

On 1 July 2023, the International DORIS Service (IDS) will celebrate the 20th anniversary of its creation under the umbrella of the International Association of Geodesy (IAG). The IDS was established to foster scientific research related to the French DORIS tracking system and to deliver scientific products, mostly related to the International Earth rotation and Reference systems Service (IERS). Since its start, the organization has continuously evolved, leading to additional and improved operational products. IDS is now based on a reinforced structure with two Data Centers, six Analysis Centers, four Associated Analysis Center, a Combination Center, and several partner groups.The DORIS system recorded its first measurement on February 3rd, 1990, from the SPOT-2 remote sensing satellite. 32 years after, the system is at its best. DORIS has proven greatly valuable for geodesy and geophysics applications: measuring tectonic plate motions, determination of the rotation and the gravity parameters of the Earth, contributing to the international reference system, ... Technological and methodological improvements have allowed the improvement in the estimates of the positions of the DORIS tracking ground stations, the Earth rotation parameters and other geodetic variables such as the geocenter and the scale of the ITRF. This year, a 9th satellite joins the current constellation of DORIS satellites. It is SWOT, launched on 16 December 2022. Never before have so many DORIS instruments been in operation simultaneously.This presentation addresses the recent achievements made by IDS and its components, and the future plans of the service.
Sensitivity of future drought to soil moisture dynamics
Authors: van der Wiel Karin , Muntjewerf Laura , Bintanja Richard , Selten Frank
Published: February 2023

Climate changes is known to influence the frequency and severity of extreme events. In recent years north-western Europe suffered severe and consecutive droughts, which spiked societal interest in the topic of drought vulnerability and understanding (future) drought characteristics. We investigate uncertainties in estimates of forced changes in drought in global climate models. These uncertainties relate to the sign of precipitation change and the magnitude of the change in evapotranspiration. We quantify the uncertainty in the CMIP6 ensemble, and will investigate mechanisms of change in more detail using a single model large-ensemble climate modelling experiment (EC-Earth3, KNMI-LENTIS, 2x 1600 years). Finally, a dedicated soil moisture perturbation experiment will be used to investigate the dependence of drought changes on climatological mean soil moisture conditions. This combination of different experimental designs, i.e. a multi-model approach, a single model large ensemble approach and an experimental approach with adjusted model physics, will help improve our understanding of mechanisms and magnitudes of future drought changes, and inform directions of future scientific development to reduce uncertainties in climate change projections of drought in the region.
Organization of SIP mechanisms among basic cloud types
Authors: Deshmukh Akash , Phillips Vaughan , Waman Deepak , Patade Sachin , Bansemer Aaron , Gupta Ashok
Published: February 2023

 Clouds are a fundamental aspect of the Earth’s atmosphere. One of the major challenges in cloud-resolving models (CRM) is the formation and generation of new cloud ice particles from pre-existed ice and liquid. Based on the basic broad cloud types, it is helpful to distinguish between their fundamental microphysical properties. The four basic cloud types are defined as: (1) warm-based convective and stratiform clouds; and (2) cold-based convective and stratiform clouds. Recent studies of ice initiation in clouds have shown that most ice particles in the mixed-phase region of clouds are from secondary ice production (SIP) mechanisms but have generally concentrated on only one specific cloud system.In this study, Aerosol-Cloud model (AC) is used. AC includes the four mechanisms of secondary ice production as follows: ice-ice collisional breakup, raindrop freezing fragmentation, Hallett-Mossop (HM) process and sublimational breakup. The intent is to generalize the contribution of each SIP mechanism among basic cloud types. The numerical simulations are performed using our AC for each cloud type and validated against in-situ cloud observations. The observational data is collected during four different cloud observational campaigns, each representing a contrasting cloud type than others.Here, we study the contributions from each process of SIP (HM process, ice-ice collisional breakup, raindrop-freezing fragmentation and sublimational breakup) by performing control simulations of each basic cloud type. For the warm cloud convective clouds, the HM process prevails near freezing level and contributes significantly from 0 to -15oC. In cold-based convective clouds, the ice-ice collisional breakup is the most dominating SIP mechanism in each cloud type. In warm-based stratiform clouds, the HM process dominates the contribution of ice in the -5 to -15oC temperature range for updrafts up to 8 m/s. In the slightly warm-based convective clouds, the breakup due to ice-ice collision is the most dominating mechanism for the convective updrafts between -5oC and cloud top temperatures. 
Towards emulated Lagrangian particle dispersion model footprints for satellite observations
Authors: Fillola Elena , Santos-Rodriguez Raul , Rigby Matt
Published: February 2023

Lagrangian particle dispersion models (LPDMs) have been used extensively to calculate source-receptor relationships (“footprints”) for use in greenhouse gas (GHG) flux inversions. However, because a backward-running model simulation is required for each data point, LPDMs do not scale well to very large datasets, which makes them unsuitable for use in GHG inversions using high-resolution satellite instruments such as TROPOMI. In this work, we demonstrate how Machine Learning (ML) can be used to accelerate footprint production, by first presenting a proof-of-concept emulator for ground-based site observations, and then discussing work in progress to create an emulator suitable to satellite observations. In Fillola et al (2023), we presented a ML emulator for NAME, the Met Office’s LPDM, which outputs footprints for a small region around an observation point using purely meteorological variables as inputs. The footprint magnitude at each grid cell in the domain is modelled independently using gradient-boosted regression trees. The model is evaluated for seven sites, producing a footprint in 10ms, compared to around 10 minutes for the 3D simulator, and achieving R2 values between 0.6 and 0.8 for CH4 concentrations simulated at the sites when compared to the timeseries generated by NAME. Following on from this work, we demonstrate how this same emulator can be applied to satellite data to reproduce footprints immediately around any measurement point in the domain, evaluating this application with data for Brazil and North Africa and obtaining R2 values of around 0.5 for simulated CH4 concentrations. Furthermore, we propose new emulator architectures for LPDMs applied to satellite observations. These new architectures should tackle some of the weaknesses in the existing approach, for example, by propagating information more flexibly in space and time, potentially improving accuracy of the derived footprints and extending the prediction capabilities to bigger domains.
Explicit 3D modelling of the rhizosphere processes at plant scale demonstrates the impact of soil texture on root water uptake
Authors: Axelle Koch , Cai Gaochao , Meunier Félicien , Ahmed Mutez Ali , Javaux Mathieu
Published: February 2023

The relation between plant transpiration rate (E) and leaf water potential (LWP) is a function of both soil and plant hydraulics and can be affected by local rhizosphere processes. Measuring these very localized processes remains a huge challenge, while observing their impact on the E-LWP relationship is easy. Therefore, the underlying mechanisms of how these processes impact root water uptake (RWU) and whether it is soil texture specific remain unknown. In this study we used a 3-D detailed functional-structural root-soil model to investigate how root and rhizosphere hydraulics control the E-LWP relationship for two maize genotypes (with and without root hairs) grown in two soil types (loam and sand) during soil drying. We assumed that the rhizosphere hydraulic resistance can be taken into account via two processes: (1) a drop in soil water potential between the bulk soil and the soil-root interface and (2) a partial soil-root contact. The simulations revealed that the key process controlling the uptake was soil-dependent. In loam, a drop in soil water potential between the bulk soil and the soil-root interface affected the uptake and RWU started to be limited below soil water potential of -610 hPa. In sand, however, the poor soil-root contact was the main constraint, and the rhizosphere conductance limited RWU at much higher soil water potential (around -90 hPa). In contrast to effective models, our explicit three-dimensional simulations provide exact location and the main driver (root or rhizosphere) of the water RWU distribution patterns as well as the quantification of the active root surface ratio for RWU.
The role of surface forcing in driving pathways and time scales of ocean ventilation in the subpolar North Atlantic
Authors: Marzocchi Alice , Nurser George , Clement Louis , Elaine McDonagh
Published: February 2023

The ocean takes up 93 % of the excess heat in the climate system and approximately a quarter of the anthropogenic carbon via air–sea fluxes. Ocean ventilation and subduction are key processes that regulate the transport of water from the surface mixed layer to the ocean's interior, which is isolated from the atmosphere for a timescale set by the large-scale circulation. Using numerical simulations (NEMO framework), we assess where the ocean subducts water and takes up properties from the atmosphere, and how ocean currents transport and redistribute these properties. This is achieved by adding a set of simulated seawater vintage dyes (passive tracers) that are released annually from different ocean surface “patches”, representing water masses’ source regions. The dyes’ distribution captures years of strong and weak convection at deep and mode water formation sites in both hemispheres, showing good agreement with observations in the subpolar North Atlantic. We show that interannual variability in subduction rates, driven by changes in surface forcing, is key in setting the different sizes of the long-term inventory of the dyes. The Northern and Southern Hemispheres are characterised by different ventilation pathways and timescales, but our analysis highlights a strong correlation between the strength of ventilation in recently subducted waters and the longer-term dye inventory in each hemisphere. This means that the conditions close to the time of dye injection are driving the amount of seawater being subducted, but also that this signal persists over time and the longer-term tracer inventory is strongly related to the initial surface conditions. The correlation still holds for the different source regions, where it is even stronger, but the slope of the correlation does vary. Export and isolation of subducted waters is shown to be faster in the Northern Hemisphere, defining a stronger ventilation “persistence” – represented by the slope of the correlation between subduction and the longer-term inventory. The highest ventilation persistence is found in the subpolar North Atlantic and specifically in the Labrador and Irminger Seas, which are the dominant regions in retaining tracer on multi-decadal time scales.
Evaluation of the structural uncertainty of hydrological models in the estimation of multiple hydrological processes
Authors: Rodriguez Paulina , Vargas Ximena
Published: February 2023

Hydrological models are powerful tools, that allows users to create a simplified representation of real-world system and that serve to understand the hydrological processes in a basin, and predict their future behavior, including, for example, the effects of climate change. However, these models are subject to multiple sources of uncertainty, including structural uncertainty, related to the hydrological processes simulated and to the spatial discretization applied (lumped, semi-distributed or distributed models). The effects of this modelling decision could be particularly relevant when the objective is to simulate more than one hydrological process.The objective of this work is to determine if the use of different model structures (lumped or semi-distributed), and the selection of process to be simulated allows reducing the uncertainty of the estimation of more than one hydrological process. Using Raven, a robust and flexible hydrological modelling framework, that supports a wide variety of modelling options, and sits atop a robust and extendible software architecture, eight model structures have been constructed to simulate the River Colorado en Junta con Palos Basin. This basin located in the central zone of Chile (Lat.-35.25, Lon. 71), has a snow-pluvial regime and an average annual rainfall of 1796 mm for the period 1979-2020.  Additionally, this basin covers an area of 879 km2, with a wide elevation range, from 643 m.a.s.l. to 4074 m.a.s.l.The results have shown some differences at modelling daily streamflow (KGE from 0.68 to 0.72 in the lumped models, and from 0.68 to 0.8 in semi-distributed models). Furthermore, other important changes have been visualized related to the characterization of snow cover and soil moisture in the first layer of soil. The simulated series have been compared to satellite data (products MODIS10A2 for snow cover and NASA-USDA Enhanced SMAP Global Soil Moisture Data for superficial soil moisture).In the case of the snow cover, the annual duration of snow cover was evaluated, obtaining Pearson's coefficient values between 0.4 and 0.56 for lumped models, while these values reach 0.65 in the case of semi-distributed models. Regarding soil moisture, the changes were more significant when changing the structure of the model (selection and parameterizations of the processes), rather than its spatial discretization, with a range of KGE values from 0.34 to values close to 0.7, strongly influenced by the methods used to evaluate evapotranspiration and infiltration, as well as by the characteristics of the soil.Overall, this work demonstrates the potential of a flexible hydrologic modeling framework to assess and reduce the structural uncertainty of hydrologic models, taking advantage of the potential of these tools.
The Potential of the W-band polarization diversity Doppler radar envisaged for the WIVERN mission for sampling tropical cyclones
Authors: Tridon Frederic , Battaglia Alessandro , Illingworth Anthony
Published: February 2023

The WIVERN (WInd VElocity Radar Nephoscope) mission, currently under the Phase-0 of the ESA Earth Explorer program, promises to complement AEOLUS Doppler wind lidar by globally observing, for the first time, vertical profiles of winds in cloudy areas. The objective of this work is to assess the potential of WIVERN for sampling tropical cyclones from the long-term CloudSat dataset. Realistic WIVERN synthetic observations are produced thanks to the recently developed end to end simulator of the WIVERN dual-polarization Doppler conically scanning 94 GHz radar based on CloudSat reflectivity observations and ECMWF co-located winds. The resulting multi-year dataset provides statistics on how well the WIVERN mission can sample the cloud systems associated to tropical cyclones and monitor their genesis and lifecycle. The analysis of the results provides statistics for addressing the following questions for tropical systems: What is the frequency of reliable wind estimates as a function of height? What is the effect of ghost echoes produced by cross-polarization? What is the impact of noise error and how often will the 94 GHz radar signal be fully attenuated by rain?
Longitudinal assessment of tsunami knowledge in an Italian school.
Authors: Cugliari Lorenzo , Crescimbene Massimo , Amato Alessandro
Published: February 2023

Italy is at tsunami risk, a phenomenon characterized by low frequency of occurrence that can cause widespread and destructive impact on coastlines.The activities carried out by the INGV's Tsunami Alert Center (CAT-INGV), in concert with Italian Department of Civil Protection, include tsunami risk mitigation through: i) the study of tsunami risk perception, ii) the Tsunami Ready program, and iii) educational and dissemination activities with different methodologies.In this work we analyze the effectiveness and durability of learning about knowledge and tsunami risk with Lazzaro Spallanzani Scientific High School students, in Tivoli (Rome province).The assessment involved the administration of an online questionnaire composed of selected items from the tsunami risk perception survey carried out by CAT for the tsunami risk perception study (Cerase et al., 2019, Cugliari et al., 2022).The survey sample consists of 90 students identified by age group (16-19 y.o.) and study address (high school scientific address).The assessment was made administering the questionnaire in two stages, two months apart (March 2022 and May 2022) before and after a tsunami scientific lesson with the support of multimedia tools (photos, videos, animations and infographics).A third survey is planned for March 2023, respecting the statistical-methodological survey criteria.Data analysis shows an evident increase in tsunami risk knowledge. Student educational needs also emerge that can be used as leverage to structure targeted and effective interventions and increase young people's awareness of tsunami risk in other areas. There is also evidence that fieldwork, with the aid of multimedia and possibly interactive or assisted media, provides successful maintenance of attention and facilitates assimilation. 
Evaluating the consistency of different forest disturbance datasets
Authors: Häbold Laura , Bastos Ana
Published: February 2023

Forest health and disturbance data are crucial to improve our understanding about impacts of climate change on the multiple services forests provide (CO2 sequestration, water cycling, timber production, recreation and culture, etc.). Recently, several new datasets with different acquisition methods and at different spatial and temporal scaleshave become available. While such datasets provide invaluable information, the consistency of the information they provide needs to be evaluated.The aim of this study is to evaluate the consistency of three publicly available tree mortality and disturbance datasets. We compared the consistency of the datasets in terms of their reported timing and the driving disturbance agents for events occurring from 2000 to 2021. Preliminary results indicate some overlap of disturbance events, but with important temporal lags between different datasets. An exact overlap in space and time is rare, which might be due to different acquisition methods as well as the spatial scale and magnitude of the disturbance.