bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Interregional flows of economically active persons in France, 1975–1982
Authors: Dean Ken G.
Published: March 2007

Recent net interregional migration into southern and western France is widely appreciated, but much less is known about the composition of these flows in terms of the occupational characteristics of economically active migrants. Using results from the 1982 census, this article disaggregates net flows to reveal inflows and outflows of migrants defined by gender and occupational groups. Important differences between these groups with regard to absolute flows and geographical mobility are uncovered and discussed in relation to the new spatial division of labor perspective on counterurbanization.
Government statistics: The conflict between research and privacy
Authors: Choldin Harvey M.
Published: March 2007

The production of social statistics has been challenged in certain West European nations by the “privacy issue.” Privacy advocates contend thatcomputerized data files containing information about individuals endanger personal privacy and other civil liberties. The privacy issue has taken two forms: anti-census campaigns and data protection systems. Although those responsible for statistical data have traditionally safeguarded their records, they areoften drawn into this issue. Increasingly, they have had to deal with the sociopolitical environment through legislative liaisons, lawyers, and advertising agencies. They have also had to revise data collection and processing procedures. In some situations, they have had to suspend censuses and surveys.
Relative deprivation and international migration oded stark
Authors: Stark Oded , Taylor J. Edward
Published: March 2007

This article provides theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence that international migration decisions are influenced by relative as well as absolute income considerations. Potential gains in absolute income through migration are likely to play an important role in households’ migration decisions, but international migration by household members who hold promise for success as labor migrants can also be an effective strategy to improve a household’s income position relative to others in the household’s reference group. The findings reported in this article provide empirical support for the hypothesis that relative deprivation plays a significant role in Mexico-to-U. S. migration decisions. The findings also suggest that this migration is an effective mechanism for achieving income gains in households that send migrants to the U.S. and that households wisely choose as migrants those of their members who are most likely to provide net income gains.
A test of the Easterlin fertility model using income for two generations and a comparison with the Becker model
Authors: Behrman Jere R. , Taubman Paul
Published: March 2007

An important dimension of Easterlin’s seminal work on fertility is the hypothesis of intergenerational taste formation, or the relative income hypothesis. Previous estimates have not had data on income in two generations, so the estimated own-income effects may have had a downward bias. This article uses data with income from two generations to estimate the Easterlin model directly. Own income is still not positively significant. A simple single-equation test is developed to distinguish this model from a Becker intergenerational serially correlated endowments model that he claims is observationally equivalent. The test results favor the Becker formulation.
Husbands’ and wives’ characteristics and fertility decisions: A diagonal mobility model
Authors: Sorenson Ann Marie
Published: March 2007

In this article a diagonal mobility model is used to describe the relative effects of husbands’ and wives’ characteristics on fertility. Compared with the characteristics of their wives, the characteristics of non-Hispanic husbands are nearly insignificant in their effect on fertility. The relative importance of husbands’ attributes is much greater among Mexican-American couples. Although this suggests ethnic stereotypes about male dominance in Mexican-American families, differences in female educational attainment may offer a better explanation. The most immediate conclusion from this analysis pertains to the use of wives’ characteristics as a proxy for couple data. This strategy is reasonable if female educational levels generally extend into high school. Relying on wives’ characteristics to study marital fertility, however, may be problematic if the analysis involves respondents with a wide range of educational levels.
American fertility in transition: New estimates of birth rates in the United States, 1900–1910
Authors: Haines Michael R.
Published: March 2007

This article presents new estimates of age-specific overall and marital fertility rates for the entire United States for the period 1900–1910. The estimation techniques are the two-census parity increment method and the own-children method. The data sources are the 1900 census public use sample and tabulations of 1910 census fertility data published with the 1940 census. Estimates are made for the total population, whites, native-born whites, foreign-born whites, and blacks. Low age-specific marital fertility at younger ages is consistent with a view of a distinctive American fertility pattern at this time.
A state-based regression model for estimating substate life expectancy
Authors: Swanson David A.
Published: March 2007

Life expectancy is an important indicator of the level of mortality in a population. However, the conventional way of calculating life expectancy—constructing a life table—has rigorous data requirements. As a consequence, life expectancy data are not usually available for substate areas. In this article, a regression model for estimating life expectancy is constructed, using state-level data, and is tested against two sets of 1980 life expectancy data: (1) a nationwide sample of metropolitan areas and (2) selected cities, their suburbs, and rural counties in Ohio. An additional test shows the sensitivity of the model’s accuracy to errors in one of its input data elements. The results suggest that the model should be given serious consideration for generating life expectancy estimates for substate areas.
Fertility change in five Latin American countries: A covariance analysis of birth intervals
Authors: Moreno-Navarro Lorenzo
Published: March 2007

This paper analyzes patterns of childbearing throughout the reproductive career of Latin American women, using a hazards model of birth interval life tables. Data come from five fertility surveys of the World Fertility Survey Programme. The analysis, within each country and across time, assesses how demographic factors of reproduction influence the fertility history of women throughout their reproductive lives.
Changing living arrangements: A hazard model of transitions among household types
Authors: Richards Toni , White Michael J. , Tsui Amy Ong
Published: March 2007

This paper analyzes movements among household types. Persons in one household may join another type. Correspondingly, a household’s structure may change when someone joins it. Data are from the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, spanning 1968–1980. The individuals followed in the survey generated spells analyzed with a multivariate competing risk hazard model. We develop a map of the flow among household types and of the economic and demographic profiles of individuals making the transitions. We find wide variability in the stability of household types and marked racial differences in the relative stability and pattern of destination choices.
Repeated resuscitation: How lifesaving alters life tables
Authors: Vaupel James W. , Yashin Anatoli I.
Published: March 2007

How does saving lives affect the force of mortality and life table statistics? How can the progress being made in reducing the force of mortality be interpreted in terms of lifesaving? How many times can a person expect to have his or her life saved as a result of this progress? We develop a model to answer these questions and illustrate the results by using mortality rates for the United States in 1900 and 1980 and as projected for 2050.
Integrating Theory and Research on the Institutional Determinants of Fertility
Authors: Smith Herbert L.
Published: March 2007

This article links recent conceptual theories regarding the determinants of fertility with research designs appropriate for testing those theories. The most important causal factors in these theories—typically social or cultural institutions, occasionally emergent properties of the collective behavior of individuals—are properly conceptualized at the macro level. Research designs must therefore feature variation at this level and are at a minimum comparative. Noncomparative micro-level research designs will be misspecified from the standpoint of theory. A case is also made for continuing to incorporate the observation of individual-level behavior into any comprehensive research design. A focus on macro determinants of fertility does not imply that fertility outcomes are determined at the institutional level. Instead, there remains some process whereby systemic properties are translated into individual behaviors. Recommendations for comparative community-level studies are discussed. The multilevel analysis framework is reviewed as a paradigm for the conceptual features of cross-contextual analysis.
Measuring sterility from incomplete birth histories
Authors: Larsen Ulla , Menken Jane
Published: March 2007

In this article, methods are presented for measuring the level and age pattern of sterility from incomplete birth histories, such as those that can be collected in demographic surveys of women who may not yet have reached the end of their reproductive span. The characteristics of the methods are examined in a simulation study that demonstrates that estimates based on information about fertility subsequent to a given age are more robust to variations in reproductive determinants, sample size, and sampling variation than the other measures, which include the frequently employed length of the open birth interval. In an illustrative analysis of World Fertility Survey data from sub-Saharan Africa, sterility was found to be high in Cameroon, intermediate in Lesotho and Sudan, and low in Ghana and Kenya relative to an English historical population.
The Growth of Home Ownership: 1940–1980
Authors: Chevan Albert
Published: March 2007

Housing went through a major transition between 1940 and 1980 as the proportion of home owners nearly doubled. This article examines how that change took place. Compositional changes in the population and process changes led by post–World War II housing policies and programs are tested as explanations for the growth of home ownership. A process analysis and a decomposition of the change in home ownership between cohorts are used to evaluate each interpretation of change. A combination of both explanations accounts for the change in home ownership.
Married-Couple Families With Step, Adopted, and Biological Children
Authors: Moorman Jeanne E. , Hernandez Donald J.
Published: March 2007

National estimates of the numbers of families with step, adopted, and biological children have not previously been developed. In this work, parent types for children in married-couple families were indirectly identified by using marriage and birth dates. Families were then classified by the types of children present. A large majority (79 percent) had only biological children; however, a significant minority (16 percent) had at least one stepchild and 4 percent had at least one adopted child. This analysis provides national estimates of the numbers and characteristics of married-couple families with step, adopted, and biological children.
Ethnic and Birth Weight Differences in Cause-Specific Infant Mortality
Authors: Rogers Richard G.
Published: March 2007

This article examines ethnic differences in cause-specific infant mortality, using linked birth and infant death records from a cohort of New Mexican singleton infants, 1980–1983. The research, which applies log-linear analysis, focuses on the combined influences of ethnicity, birth weight, maternal age, and plurality on birth outcomes—that is, on infant survival and deaths due to perinatal, congenital, and respiratory diseases and to sudden infant death syndrome. The results confirm the pronounced impact of birth weight on infant mortality and identify similarities and differences among Anglo, Hispanic, and American Indian babies with respect to causespecific infant mortality.
Measuring socioeconomic mortality differentials over time
Authors: Duleep Harriet Orcutt
Published: March 2007

Using 1973 Current Population Survey data matched to 1973–1978 Social Security mortality records, this study measures the relationship between the income and education of men and their subsequent mortality. The estimated relationships are compared with socioeconomic mortality differentials found by Kitagawa and Hauser in their study of 1960 census-death certificate matched data. The comparison suggests that there has been no improvement in the relative mortality experience of low socioeconomic status men. More generally, the article discusses how Social Security data could be used to monitor, on a continual basis, our progress toward eradicating signficant mortality differentials in the United States.
Variations in marriage patterns in central Thailand
Authors: Cherlin Andrew , Chamratrithirong Aphichat
Published: March 2007

Data from a survey of marriage patterns in central Thailand illustrate the complexity of change in marriage patterns in a developing society-the diversity of traditional patterns, the different directions of change, and the variations in current patterns. The data were collected in 1978 and 1979 from ever-married women aged 15–44 in three settings:a central plains village, established areas in Bangkok, and a Bangkok squatter settlement. Three forms of entry into marriage were identified:ceremonial marriage with parental involvement in the choice of spouse, ceremonial marriage with self-choice of spouse, and nonceremonial marriage (elopement and living together). All three forms of marriage existed in each setting, and the dominant form differed in each. In general, a family background of higher socioeconomic status led to a greater likelihood of a marriage ceremony and greater parental involvement in spouse choice. Women with more education were also more likely to marry with ceremony, but higher education for daughters was associated with less parental involvement in spouse choice. These findings suggest that marriage patterns may remain diverse in Thailand, even as further development occurs.
Age patterns of elderly migration: An international comparison
Authors: Rogers Andrei
Published: March 2007

Age-specific rates of migration exhibit remarkably persistent regularities in age profile. These regularities seem to hold all over the world and across time. This article identifies some of the principal antecedents of such regularities, focusing especially on the age patterns of migration exhibited by the elderly. It examines the differentials introduced by gender, distance, and marital status.
The timing of falls into poverty after retirement and widowhood
Authors: Holden Karen C. , Burkhauser Richard V. , Feaster Daniel J.
Published: March 2007

A major concern of workers, even those financially prepared for retirement, is that a small risk of poverty may grow over time. Cross-sectional data showing that older cohorts have higher poverty rates substantiate this concern. Using data from the Retirement History Study, we analyze changes in the hazard of entering poverty as a cohort of elderly couples retire and age and the wives are widowed. The initial fall into poverty among those who were not poor before the husband retired is more closely linked to the event of retirement or widowhood than to the slowly eroding household income over the period of retirement and widowhood. The death of her retired husband puts a wife in economic jeopardy whether this shock occurs one year after his retirement or some years later.
Age-specific growth rates: The legacy of past population dynamics
Authors: Horiuchi Shiro , Preston Samuel H.
Published: March 2007

Recent developments in population mathematics have focused attention on a function that is widely available but rarely examined: the set of age-specific growth rates in a population. In particular, this set of rates is sufficient for translating the current birth rate and age-specific mortality rates into the current age distribution. This growth-rate function contains all of the pertinent features of a population’s demographic history that are required to relate major demographic functions for a particular period to one another. This article presents an expression fm the age-specific growth rate and uses it to derive an equation for age distribution. We show how the value of the age-specific growth rate is determined by a population’s demographic past and present various sets of growth rates corresponding to stylized demographic scenarios. Several noteworthy sets of growth rates observed in human populations are discussed. Finally, we explain why age-specific growth rates make it possible to determine the age distribution solely from information on current demographic conditions.
Implications of boundary choice for the measurement of residential mobility
Authors: White Michael J. , Mueser Peter R.
Published: March 2007

Analyses of residential mobility are usually conditioned on a system of geography in which territory is divided into discrete units. Types of movement are defined in terms of these units, the most important distinction being that between local mobility and migration. Here we examine explicitly the implications of the choice of the migration-defining boundary in the U.S. over the 1940–1980 period. We demonstrate how boundary choice influences the extent and character of selectivity of the mobile population by using demographic and social characteristics. It appears that over time the state line may be replacing the county line in distinguishing kinds of migrants. Further, our results point to a growing fraction of footloose migrants, not tied to local territory, identified by their migration history rather than demographic characteristics.
Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors
Authors: Smith Stanley K. , Sincich Terry
Published: March 2007

A number of studies in recent years have investigated empirical approaches to the production of confidence intervals for population projections. The critical assumption underlying these approaches is that the distribution of forecast errors remains stable over time. In this article, we evaluate this assumption by making population projections for states for a number of time periods during the 20th century, comparing these projections with census enumerations to determine forecast errors, and analyzing the stability of the resulting error distributions over time. These data are then used to construct and test empirical confidence limits. We find that in this sample the distribution of absolute percentage errors remained relatively stable over time and data on past forecast errors provided very useful predictions of future forecast errors.
Marital stability throughout the child-rearing years
Authors: Heaton Tim B.
Published: March 2007

Although there is evidence that the number and ages of children influence marital stability, studies have not systematically tracked the risk of marital disruption throughout the child-rearing years. This study uses marital and fertility histories from the June 1985 Current Population Survey to examine this issue. Continuous-time regression models with ages and numbers of children as time-varying covariates are estimated. Net of controls for age at marriage, year of marriage, education, and marital duration, stability increases with family size up to the third child but starts to decline as family size reaches five or more children. Aging of children is disruptive until the youngest child reaches adulthood, after which marriages become much more stable. Arrival and aging of children is an important dynamic with strong implications for marital stability.
The hidden component in census-derived migration data: Assessing its size and distribution
Authors: Nicholson Beryl
Published: March 2007

Comparison of Norwegian “linked” decennial census data with statistics compiled from 10 years’ migration registrations showed that the amount of movement omitted by census data was considerable. This hidden movement was of a similar order at every administrative level, but only when total movement was considered. There was wide variation between regions, migration directions, and streams. In some cases census data misrepresented the direction of net movement. Available evidence suggests that these patterns are not confined to Norway, raising the possibility that research findings based on census-derived migration data may merely be artifacts of the data.
Immigration, below-replacement fertility, and long-term national population trends
Authors: Mitra S.
Published: March 2007

The long-term demographic effects of immigration on a population experiencing below-replacement fertility are studied by assuming that the size and age composition of the immigrant population do not change over time. The size of the first-generation immigrant population becomes stationary within a time period not greater than the human life span. Thereafter, the number dying equals the number entering over any given time interval. The stationarity of the native population, among which deaths exceed births, is maintained by the compensating number of births to the immigrant population. The limiting age distribution of the country’s population, although stationary, may not decline monotonically with age and may look like a camel’s back, with one or two humps.
Age estimation from the number of teeth erupted in young children: An aid to demographic surveys
Authors: Townsend Nicholas , Hammel E. A.
Published: March 2007

The reporting of children’s ages by parents is surprisingly inaccurate in many innumerate societies, but accurate knowledge of age is important for estimating recent changes in demographic rates. The timing of the eruption of children’s teeth is largely independent of environmental influences and can provide a relatively accurate and unbiased estimate of a child’s age. We have collected published data from 42 studies of children’s dentition and have transformed them into estimates of age for children with particular numbers of teeth. We present estimates for different populations, but the lack of significant differences between these estimates justifies the use of a standard set.
What’s happening to the family? Interactions between demographic and institutional change
Authors: Bumpass Larry L.
Published: March 2007

As soon as men and women … acquire the habit of weighing the individual advantages and disadvantages of any prospective course of action … they cannot fail to become aware of the heavy personal sacrifices that family ties and especially parenthood entail under modern conditions. (Schumpeter 1988/1942, pp. 501–502)
When Is a Father Really Gone? Paternal–Child Contact in Father-Absent Homes
Authors: Mott Frank L.
Published: March 2007

This research uses unique longitudinal data to examine the dynamics of the father’s presence or absence during a child’s first few years of life and consider the extent to which overt father-presence/absence statistics mask a continuing contact with the child’s father or other potential father figures. I document the extent to which (1) substantial proportions of children born to younger mothers never have had a biological father residing in the home, (2) “net” levels of fathers’ absence at various postbirth points mask significant “gross” flows of fathers in and out of the household, and (3) large proportions of children in homes lacking the biological father have potentially significant contact with absent fathers or new father figures.
Welfare benefits, economic opportunities, and out-of-wedlock births among black teenage girls
Authors: Duncan Greg J. , Hoffman Saul D.
Published: March 2007

This article presents a model of teenage out-of-wedlock births that incorporates the effectsof both welfare and nonwelfare economic opportunities. We construct measures of the likely “medium-run” income available to a teenage girl in the event of an out of-wedlock birth and in the absence of a birth and then estimate a logit model to determine their importance in influencing fertility behavior. The model is estimated with data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics on nearly 900 black teenagers. We find weak and statistically insignificant positive effects of Aid to Families With Dependent Children (AFDC) benefit levelsand stronger and significant negative effects of economic opportunities on the probability of AFDC-related out-of-wedlock teen births.
Adolescent sexual activity in the family context: The impact of older siblings
Authors: Haurin R. Jean , Mott Frank L.
Published: March 2007

Using approximately 2,000 sibling pairs from the ab] National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Market Experience of Youth, we examine the influence of an older sibling’s age at first sexual intercourse on the sexual initiation of a younger sibling. Hypotheses about differences by gender composition of the pair are tested, using a framework derived from social comparison theory and a two-stage failure-time model. Results provide evidence of a direct but modest-sized older sibling effect for white but not black youth. This effect is approximately equal in magnitude for same- and oppositesex siblings. Little support is offered for the greater salience and association of sexual activity for brother-brother as compared with sister-sister pairs.
Determinants of contraceptive switching behavior in rural Sri Lanka
Authors: Hamill David N. , Tsui Amy O. , Thapa Shyam
Published: March 2007

This study examines the influence of a selected set of determinants of contraceptive method switching in rural Sri Lanka. Of interest is the question of how change in contraceptive practice at the individual level can account for patterns observed at the aggregate level. Based on calendar data on contraceptive use over a 3-year period, collected for more than 3,000 married women in a 1986 survey, the multivariate analysis shows that women who attain all or a significant proportion of their desired fertility tend to switch to more effective methods. Women who experience method failure tend to switch methods, usually to a type that is more effective. The woman’s background determinants of age and education have small but significant effects on method switching, whereas the effect of household economic well-being is not significant. There is strong indication that rural couples are practicing contraception in a nonrandom fashion, switching methods in accordance with changes in their fertility motivations and contraceptive experience.
Residential preferences and population redistribution: 1972–1988
Authors: Fuguitt Glenn V. , Brown David L.
Published: March 2007

In seeking to explain recent trends in population distribution, there has been increased interest in residential preferences. This study is a comparison of preferences based on 1972 and 1988 national surveys, years that bracket a period of considerable change in distribution patterns. Over time there has been a small shift in preference toward cities less than 500,000 in size, primarily by those already living there. Rural settings, especially near cities, continue to be very attractive. At both times studied, more than half of those preferring a smaller or more remote place would retain this preference even if it meant 10% less income. Nevertheless, the proportion preferring to live more than 30 miles from a large city was unchanged and approximately equal to the proportion already living there at both times, indicating that a discrepancy between where people live and where they want to live is not an important basis for the upturn in nonmetropolitan growth away from large cities in the 1970s or the downturn in the 1980s.
Recent trends in the process of stratification
Authors: Grusky David B. , DiPrete Thomas A.
Published: March 2007

Using the 14 annual cross-sections from the General Social Survey, we specify a “basic model” of attainment and describe the year-by-year fluctuations in its parameters. The results are partially consistent with theories describing the gradual growth of universalistic patterns of stratification and mobility. Under a linear model of educational achievement, we find that the direct effects of race are weakening and the returns to class-based advantages are declining in tandem. The contours of the socioeconomic “gender gap” are also changing in important ways, with the male intercept declining at a rapid pace and the female term registering small and insignificant yearby-year gains. At the same time, the returns to experience and schooling are increasing for men, whereas the corresponding returns for women have remained stable over the 15-year period. This pattern of interaction effects implies that the size of the gender gap varies over time and across different population groups.
A reconsideration of the economic consequences of marital dissolution
Authors: Duncan Greg J. , Hoffman Saul D.
Published: March 2007

We use longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics to assess the economic consequences of divorce and separation for the women and men involved. In contrast to previous studies focusing exclusively on those who remain unmarried, our approach integrates the probability of remarriage into the analysis and produces a much less dramatic picture of change in economic status than analyses not incorporating remarriage. However, we also find evidence of selection bias in the subgroup of women who remarry, suggesting that currently unmarried women might not improve their economic status through remarriage as much as women who have remarried.
The demographic evolution of human populations: The role of selection and environmental factors
Authors: Demetrius Lloyd
Published: March 2007

Selection (genetic and cultural) and environmental variation are the principal mechanisms determining patterns of demographic change in human populations. Conditions exist under which the nature and intensity of these forces can be inferred from temporal trends in the demographic variables. These conditions, which can be expressed in terms of relations between the Malthusian parameter and population entropy, provide a means for evaluating the effect of selective and nonselective factors on demographic trends in human populations. The distinction between the roles of selection and environmental factors is illustrated by a study of the demographic transition in Sweden (1778–1965). This study shows that demographic changes during the pre- and posttransitional phases are determined mainly by environmental factors, whereas the changes during the transitional phase are mainly due to cultural selection. This analysis provides, for all three phases of the demographic transition, quantitative measures of the intensity of the forces (selective and nonselective) acting on both mortality and fecundity distributions.
Occupational influences on retirement, disability, and death
Authors: Hayward Mark D. , Grady William R. , Hardy Melissa A. , Sommers David
Published: March 2007

This research examines the alternative mechanisms by which occupations influence the nature and timing of older men’s labor force withdrawal. We specifically assess the extent to which occupational factors operate directly and indirectly on exiting events and whether occupations constrain traditional determinants of labor force participation. Based on a discrete-time hazard modeling approach, the results substantiate that the occupational task activities—substantive complexity and physical demands— are key elements of the work environment that are evaluated against nonwork alternatives. In the case of retirement, these aspects of occupational attractiveness function as a dominant and direct force in retirement decision making. With regard to disability, the occupational attribute of substantive complexity operates as an indirect advantage (through higher wages) by reducing the risk of disability. Indicators of career continuity also influence retirement among older workers. Finally, the results suggest that financial characteristics and health problems are central to the distribution of older workers across the alternative destination statuses of retirement, disability, and death.
Gender of children and birth timing
Authors: Teachman Jay D. , Schollaert Paul T.
Published: March 2007

We address the impact of the gender of children on birth timing. Our findings suggest that a preference to balance the gender of children affects the timing of births, not a preference for either sons or daughters. At parity 2, women with children of the same sex time a third birth more rapidly than women with a boy and a girl. At parity 1, women with a boy time second births more rapidly than women with a girl. This seemingly anomalous finding is explained, however, by the fact that women with boys are more likely than women with girls to be married at any point in time and thus less likely to have disrupted fertility careers.
Birth-interval dynamics in rural Bangladesh and maternal weight
Authors: Ford Kathleen , Huffman Sandra L. , Chowdhury A. K. M. A. , Becker Stan , Allen Hubert , Menken Jane
Published: March 2007

This article reports on the results of a study conducted in rural Bangladesh on the influence of maternal weight on the components of birth intervals, including gestation and intrauterine mortality, the duration of postpartum amenorrhea, and the duration of waiting time to conception (the menstrual interval). When biological factors (in-cluding maternal age, parity, and supplementation practices) and behavioral variables, including religion, education, and occupation, were controlled, maternal weight was found to be related to the risk of intrauterine mortality and to the probability of resuming menses in the postpartum period. The implications of these findings for policies and programs in developing countries are discussed.
To what extent does breastfeeding explain Birth-interval effects on early childhood mortality?
Authors: Retherford Robert D. , Choe Minja Kim , Thapa Shyam , Gubhaju Bhakta B.
Published: March 2007

This article shows that in Nepal breastfeeding almost completely explains the effects of following birth interval on childhood mortality during the first 18 months of age and partially explains the effect of following birth interval on childhood mortality between 18 and 60 months of age. Breastfeeding does not explain the effect of preceding birth interval on childhood mortality. The analysis is based on an application of hazard models to data from the 1976 Nepal Fertility Survey.
Estimating birth stopping and spacing behavior
Authors: Ewbank Douglas C.
Published: March 2007

A decomposition of age-specific marital fertility rates into indices related to spacing and stopping is developed by using Coale and Trussell’s indices and the first few parity progression ratios. This approach leads to estimates of the mean birth interval among low-parity births that can be used to address the issue of fertility control early in marriage. In this way the model addresses several of the most serious limitations of Coale and Trussell’s approach. The usefulness of the proposed indices is demonstrated by applications to historical data from the United States and Europe.
Measuring change and continuity in parity distributions
Authors: Pullum Thomas W. , Tedrow Lucky M. , Herting Jerald R.
Published: March 2007

Procedures are developed to allocate the change in mean fertility to the change in specific parities or groups of parities. One procedure uses the proportion at each parity and another uses parity progression ratios. Both are based on the delta method for approximating change in a function of several variables. Drawing on an analogy to survival in a life table, the relational logit model is applied to parity progression. This method allows several parity distributions to be synthesized and to have differences summarized with two parameters. The three procedures are applied to successive cohorts of white U.S. women who completed their childbearing between 1920 and 1980.
Intergenerational relations and reproductive behavior in Taiwan
Authors: Thornton Arland , Freedman Ronald , Sun Te-Hsiung , Chang Ming-Cheng
Published: March 2007

The character of intergenerational relationships between parents and their adult unmarried children in Taiwan is consistently and systematically related to the later reproductive behavior of the children after they marry. The greater the extent to which the adult unmarried children are exposed to nonfamilial relationships and contexts in school, at work, in the use of wages, in marriage decisions, and in first place of residence after marriage, the fewer children they will have and want and the greater the likelihood that they will begin contraception for spacing rather than for limiting their number. These relationships are consistent with theories about the transformation of familial relationships and reproductive patterns in the course of development.
Biosocial foundations for adolescent female sexuality
Authors: Udry J. Richard , Talbert Luther M. , Morris Naomi M.
Published: March 2007

Despite the widespread assumption that hormones stimulate motivation for sexual behavior in adolescence, no published empirical studies have demonstrated this link. In a cross-sectional study of 78 females in the eighth, ninth, and tenth grades in public schools, we show that hormones have effects on sexual motivation and behavior. Comparison with previous results from a parallel sample of males indicates that for both sexes these effects are primarily androgenic in origin and for the most part exert their effects directly rather than through the social interpretation of age and hormone-induced pubertal development.
A reformulation of the two-sex problem
Authors: Pollak Robert A.
Published: March 2007

The ability of classical stable population theory to determine the equilibrium growth rate and age structure of a population from its vital rates in a single period depends on assuming that the observed maternity rates are equilibrium rates. This paper resolves the two-sex problem by replacing the fixed, age-specific fertility schedule of classical stable population theory by two basic relationships: a “birth matrix” and a “mating rule.” Placing certain restrictions on the birth matrix and the mating rule (BMMR), I establish that under certain plausible conditions, the BMMR model solves the two-sex problem by allowing matings and births to adjust to changes in population structure. The BMMR model thus provides an equilibrating mechanism in place of a fixed maternity schedule of classical stable population theory.
Is the density-fertility relation a statistical artifact?: A reply to eric Jensen
Authors: Firebaugh Glenn
Published: March 2007

Conclusion

Is the density-fertility relation a statistical artifact? The answer, I conclude, is no. Like all empirical findings, the observed coefficients might misstate the true effects, so the density coefficient could be “wrong.” Moreover, the density coefficient does not identify the mechanism(s)—inheritance, child labor value, or migration—through which density affects fertility. But the density coefficient is not artifactual. Jensen’s claims are specious. His principal claim, that the use of ratio variables with common components creates bias, is based on a statistical myth. Two other claims, that pooling the village data creates a spurious correlation between density and the CBR and that the density coefficient has been inflated by simultaneity bias are shown to be false. His final claim, that omitted-variable bias must inflate the density coefficient, is also wrong. I see no reason, then, to modify the conclusions of the Punjab study.
Starting, stopping, and spacing during the early stages of fertility transition: The experience of German village populations in the 18th and 19th centuries
Authors: Knodel John
Published: March 2007

Examination of the reproductive histories of a sample of German married couples during the 18th and 19thcenturies provides insights into behavioral changes involveo in the shift from natural fertility to deliberate marital fertility control. A simple accounting scheme is used to assess the relative contributions of starting, spacing, and stopping to changes in family size during the initial phases of the fertility transition. The results suggest that in rural Germany, attempts to terminate childbearing prior to the end of the reproductive span were far more important in initiating the onset of fertility transition than efforts to deliberately prolong intervals between births or changes in the timing of the start of childbearing.
An interactive contextual model of migration in Ilocos Norte, the Philippines
Authors: Findley Sally E.
Published: March 2007

This paper develops and estimates an interactive contextual model of migration in Ilocos Norte, the Philippines. It focuses on how contextual features alter the effects of family class status and community development level on the family’s migration decisions. The model estimates show a curvilinear relation between class status and migration, but the pattern differs in accordance with the prevalence of migration from the community in the past. In addition, the effects of socioeconomic development and agricultural commercialization patterns vary with context. These results demonstrate the importance of using interactive models for analyzing the contextual influences on migration.
The impact of origin community characteristics on rural–urban out-migration in a developing country
Authors: Bilsborrow Richard E. , McDevitt Thomas M. , Kossoudji Sherrie , Fuller Richard
Published: March 2007

It is widely believed that structural variables such as inequitable land distribution, lack of rural employment opportunities, and rural-urban wage and amenity gaps influence population movements in developing countries. Yet quantitative evidence is scant. In this paper a multilevel model is used to investigate the effects of individual-, household-, and areal-level factors on rural-urban out-migration in the Ecuadorian Sierra. Data from a detailed survey carried out in 1977–1978 and from government macro-areal statistics are used to investigate factors affecting the out-migration of youths aged 12–25. Preliminary conclusions are presented on the usefulness of multilevel models in studying migration and policy implications for Ecuador.
Metropolitan and nonmetropolitan migration streams: 1935–1980
Authors: Wilson Franklin D.
Published: March 2007

Results based on an analysis of migration streams involving the metropolitan and nonmetropolitan sectors and covering a longer time interval than previously possible indicate that efforts to describe changes in the volume of movements connecting these sectors could benefit from greater attention to other related streams as well as existing patterns of population concentration. The metropolitanization process continues but is now being affected substantially by regional redistribution trends. Regional differentials in the size of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan migration streams are declining but are still substantial, so an equilibrium balance between the metropolitan and nonmetropolitan sectors will probably not occur in the immediate future.
The impact of induced abortion on black and white birth outcomes in the United States
Authors: Joyce Theodore
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the impact of induced abortion on birth outcomes by treating abortion as an endogenous input into the production of infant health. To gauge the direct and indirect effects of abortion, three measures of infant health are considered simultaneously: the neonatal mortality rate, the percentage of low-weight births, and the percentage of preterm births. All three are race specific and all pertain to large counties in the United States in 1977. The results suggest that by preventing unwanted births, abortion enhances the survivability of newborns of a given birth weight and improves the distribution of births among high-risk groups.
Bust after boom: First marriage trends in Australia
Authors: Carmichael Gordon A.
Published: March 2007

Since the early 1970s Australia has experienced a pronounced trend to later and less universal marriage. This stands in sharp contrast to a marriage boom that began with the outbreak of World War II and lasted for three decades. The boom was the product of three sets of forces: those peculiar to wartime, those emerging in the early postwar period and creating a climate favorable to marriage, and those surfacing in the 1960s with the advent of oral contraception. Its reversal is attributed largely to less frequent resort to marriage when premaritally pregnant, the rise of cohabitation as a prelude or alternative to marriage, economic forces hindering family formation, and ideological change.
Desired family size and its determinants among urban Nigerian women: A two-stage analysis
Authors: McCarthy James , Oni Gbolahan A.
Published: March 2007

This paper proposes and carries out a two-stage analysis of the determinants of desired family size, using data gathered from a sample of women in the city of Ilorin, Nigeria. The analysis first focuses on differences between women who report numerical family size desires and those who report nonnumerical desires. Findings suggest that there are important differences between these two groups, but there is little variation in the actual number reported by those expressing numerical desires. Implications of these findings for survey design are discussed. In particular, the practice of forcing numerical responses by instructing interviewers to probe when women report nonnumerical desires is questioned.
Gender preference and birth spacing in matlab, Bangladesh
Authors: Rahman Mizanur , DaVanzo Julie
Published: March 2007

Gender preference, particularly son preference, is believed to sustain high fertility in many Asian countries, but previous research shows unclear effects. We examine and compare gender-preference effects on fertility in two otherwise comparable populations in Bangladesh that differ markedly in their access to and use of contraception. We expect, and find, stronger effects of gender preference in the population that has more access to contraception and higher levels of contraceptive use. Thus gender preference may emerge as a significant barrier to further national family planning efforts in Bangladesh. We find that if a woman has at least one daughter, the risk of a subsequent birth is related negatively to the number of sons. Women with no daughters also experience a higher risk of having a subsequent birth; this finding suggests that there is also some preference for daughters. Son preference is strong in both the early and later stages of family formation, but women also want to have at least one daughter after having several sons.
The dynamics of smallpox epidemics in Britain, 1550–1800
Authors: Duncan S. R. , Scott Susan , Duncan C. J.
Published: March 2007

Time-series analysis, a valuable tool in studying population dynamics, has been used to determine the periodicity of smallpox epidemics during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries in two contrasting representative situations: 1) London, a large city where smallpox was endemic, and 2) Penrith, a small rural town. The interepidemic period was found to be two years in London and five years in Penrith. Equations governing the dynamics of epidemics predict 1) a two-year periodicity and 2) that oscillatory epidemics die out quickly. It is suggested that epidemics were maintained by a periodic variation in susceptibility linked either to a five-year cycle of malnutrition or to an annual cycle. Computer modeling shows how the very different patterns of epidemics are related to population size and to the magnitude of the oscillation in susceptibility.