Abstract 4828: Longitudinal breast density and risk of breast cancer
Authors: Vachon Celine M. , Sellers Thomas A. , Scott Christopher G. , Ghosh Karthik , Brandt Kathleen R. , Olson Janet E. , Jensen Matthew R. , Pruthi Sandhya , Morton Marilyn J. , Serie Daniel J. , Pankratz V S. 
Published: February 2011

Introduction: Mammographic breast density is one of the strongest risk factors for breast cancer and appears to be modifiable. However, whether longitudinal changes in density are associated with breast cancer risk is unknown. We hypothesize that decreases in breast density are associated with reduced breast cancer risk.

Methods: The Mayo Mammography Health Study cohort enrolled 19,924 women having a screening mammogram (mgm) at the Mayo Clinic, Rochester, between 2003 and 2006. Participants were 35 years and older, had no prior breast cancer and lived in the tri-state area (MN, IA and WI). Risk factor data were collected through self-administered questionnaire and clinic databases. Incident breast cancers were identified through tumor registries (Mayo Clinic, MN, IA, WI). The BI-RADS, 4-category clinical density measure (fatty, scattered density, heterogeneous density and extreme density) was available on all mgms performed after 1996. A case-cohort design consisting of incident cases (n=241) and a random selection of the cohort (n=2300, 28 developed cancer) was used to examine the association between change in BI-RADS density and breast cancer. BI-RADS densities measured from the earliest available, and enrollment mgms (average 6 years apart) were used to assess density change. Proportional hazards regression was performed to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) associated with a change in one or more BI-RADS density categories over time, relative to staying within the same category. Age was used as the time scale, and the subcohort was weighted by the inverse of the sampling proportion. Analyses were adjusted for age, years between mgms, BI-RADS density at earliest mgm, and changes in BMI, postmenopausal hormone use, and menopausal status.

Results: Longitudinal analyses were conducted on the 219 cases and 1900 non-cases in the subcohort with at least one mgm available prior to enrollment mgm. Compared to the subcohort, cases were older (56.8 vs. 52.9 years), more likely postmenopausal (73.4% vs. 61.6%), had higher BMI (29.0 vs 28.1) and were more frequently screened (8.0 vs. 6.9 pre-enrollment mgms). As expected, cases were more likely to have extreme density (BI-RADS=4) at earliest mgm than non-cases (16.2% vs 14.3%). Cases were less likely than non-cases to experience a reduction of one density category or more (37.0% vs 38.6%) following earliest mgm. Adjusting for potential confounders, women who decreased one BI-RADS category or more over an average 6 years were at reduced risk of breast cancer (HR=0.72, 95%CI: 0.50-0.99) compared to those whose density was unchanged. However, women who increased one or more BI-RADS categories had suggestion of increased risk (HR=1.52, 95%CI: 0.97-2.4).

Conclusion: Women with a decrease in BI-RADS density category over 6 years may have decreased breast cancer risk relative to women whose breast density category remains stable. Two measures of breast density may inform women's risk beyond a measure at one point in time.

Citation Format: {Authors}. {Abstract title} [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 101st Annual Meeting of the American Association for Cancer Research; 2010 Apr 17-21; Washington, DC. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2010;70(8 Suppl):Abstract nr 4828.