bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Global 3D model of mantle attenuation using normal modes
Authors: Talavera-Soza Sujania , Cobden Laura , Faul Ulrich H. , Deuss Arwen
Published: March 2022

Seismic tomographic models based only on wave velocities have limited ability to differentiate between a compositional or temperature origin for the Earth's 3D structure variations. Complementing wave velocities with attenuation (conversion of energy to heat) can help make that distinction, which is fundamental to understand mantle convection evolution. For example, a thermal origin for the lower mantle large low shear velocity provinces (LLSVPs) will point to them being short-lived anomalies, whereas a compositional origin will point to them being long-lived, forming stable 'anchors' and influencing the pattern of mantle convection. So far, only global 3D attenuation models built using seismic body waves and surface waves have been available for the upper mantle. Here, we use whole Earth oscillations or normal modes to measure 3D variations in mantle attenuation, which allow us to include focussing and scattering without the need for approximations. We achieve this by jointly measuring 3D variations in velocity and attenuation using splitting functions, which are depth-averaged models of how a mode 'sees' the Earth. 

Splitting functions are linearly dependent on heterogeneous structure and can be easily incorporated in tomographic models. We measured 14 anelastic splitting functions and used those to build a 3D global model of attenuation for the whole mantle. For comparison purposes, we have also constructed a 3D shear-velocity model using the same number of modes and model parametrization. In the upper mantle, we find high attenuation in the low velocity spreading ridges, which suggests a thermal origin and agrees with previous surface wave studies. In the lower mantle, we find the highest attenuation in the 'ring around the Pacific' high velocity region, which is thought to be the 'graveyard' of subducted slabs, and not in the LLSVPs beneath Africa and the Pacific. We compare our 3D attenuation model to the wave-speeds and attenuation predictions of a laboratory-based viscoelastic model. Our comparison indicates that the higher attenuation seen in the slab regions can be explained by a small grain-size in combination with cold temperatures, while the lower attenuation in the LLSVPs can be explained by a large grain-size in combination with high temperatures. Grain-size is related to viscosity in diffusion creep, which would mean that the LLSVPs have larger viscosity making them long-lived stable features, while the graveyard of slabs would have a lower viscosity making them shorter lived. 
Predicting the methane flux from a north boreal fen using redox potential as an additional parameter
Authors: Koskinen Markku , Finné Hanna , Virtanen Tarmo , Lohila Annalea , Laiho Raija , Laurila Tuomas , Aurela Mika
Published: March 2022

Continuous in-situ measurement of reduction-oxidation (redox) potential is an emerging tool for analysing ecosystem biochemical status. Redox processes are intrinsically linked to methane (CH4) production and consumption in soils. Under highly reducing conditions, acetate and carbon dioxide (CO2) are reduced into CH4, while at less reducing conditions, CH4 is readily oxidised into CO2. These oxidation processes do not necessarily require oxygen; other electron acceptors such as nitrate (NO3-) and iron can also be used by microbes. The prevalence of different electron acceptors and donors is reflected in the redox potential of the soil solution which can be measured. Thus measurements of soil redox potential could in principle be used for predicting CH4 flux.

We measured soil redox potential continuously at 4 depths between 5 and 40 cm over one growing season on nine measurement plots on three different microsites (flark, lawn and string), in a north boreal flark fen, while concurrently measuring CO2 and CH4 flux of the same plots using the manual chamber method. Flux measurements were conducted five to seven times per week from late June to late September, 2019. Along with the redox potential, water table level (WTL), air and soil temperature (Tair, Tsoil) and several vegetation characteristics were measured.

Tsoil was found to be the major control of the momentary CH4 flux, but after standardizing the flux to 10 C using the Lloyd-Taylor equation, including the soil redox potential was found to significantly (p < 0.001) improve the prediction of the flux over a model incorporating only WTL and momentary Tsoil.

This is an initial step towards inclusion of redox potential as a continuous variable describing the processes active in the soil into CH4 production/consumption models.
Dansgaard-Oeschger events in climate models: A PMIP baseline MIS3 protocol
Authors: Malmierca Vallet Irene , Sime Louise C. , Valdes Paul J.
Published: March 2022

Frequent well documented Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events occurred throughout the MIS3 period. This study lays the ground-work for a MIS3 D-O protocol for CMIP-class models. We consider the over-arching question: Are our models too stable? In the course of laying out groundwork we review: necessary D-O definitions; current progress on simulating D-O events in IPCC-class models (processes and published examples); and consider evidence of boundary conditions under which D-O events occur. Greenhouse gases and ice-sheet configurations are found to be crucial and the effect of orbital parameters is found to be small on the important features of MIS3 simulations. Oscillatory D-O type behaviour is found to be more likely, although not guaranteed, when run with low-intermediate MIS3 CO2 values, and reduced ice-sheets compared to the LGM. Thus, we propose performing a MIS3 baseline experiment centered at 38 ky (40 to 35 ky) period, which (1) shows a regular sequence of D-O events, and (2) yields the ideal intermediate ice-sheet configuration and central-to-cold GHG values. We suggest a protocol for a single baseline MIS3 PMIP protocol, alongside a preconditioned (kicked Heinrich) meltwater variant. These protocols aim to help unify the work of multiple model groups when investigating these cold-period instabilities. The protocol covers insolation-, freshwater-, GHG-, and NH ice sheet-related forcing. This addresses the currently gap in PMIP guidance for the simulation of a MIS3 state conducive to D-O oscillations under a common framework
Concept of a Critical Infrastructure Network Modelling Approach for Flood Risk Management
Authors: Schotten Roman , Bachmann Daniel
Published: March 2022

In flood risk analysis it is a key element to determine consequences of flooding to assets, people and infrastructures. However, damages to critical infrastructure networks (CIN) are not always restricted to inundated areas. The effects of directly impacted objects cascade to other infrastructures, which are indirectly affected by a flood. Modelling critical infrastructure networks is one possible answer to the question ‘how to include indirect and direct impacts to critical infrastructures in a flood risk analysis?’.

The modelling of complex CIN is utilized for different purposes: For modelling transportation routing, for damage assessments due to cyber attacks or infrastructure and interdependency analysis of water and waste water flow. For the purpose of flood risk assessments and, finally, in flood risk management application cases are scarce. The presented work introduced a method to overcome this gap. Major challenge is to balance the simplicity of a modeling approach with the resemblance of real interdependencies in a CIN and their task to supply services to end users. The more complex and realistic the network model is desired to be, the harder it is to gather the necessary data and the more expertise is necessary for potential users of this method. Additionally, users are required to switch from a raster or cell-based calculation philosophy to a network-based philosophy including points, connectors (edges) and areas (surfaces).

In this work, a network-based and topology-based method for a catchment-wide analysis is presented. The basic model elements (points, connectors and polygons) are utilized to model the complex CIN interdependencies. The CIN-module of the freely available software package ProMaIDes1, a state-of-the-art flood risk analysis tool, is used. The module is suited for an analysis of critical infrastructure damages, disruption of infrastructures and quantifies those damages by the number of disrupted users and the disruption duration. In a case study in Accra, Ghana, the method capabilities are showcased in a multisectoral model. Sectors included are electricity supply, fresh water supply, telecommunication services, health sector, emergency services and transportation. The model consists of 419 point elements, 472 polygon elements and 1124 connector elements. A synthetic precipitation event is used to visualize the reactions of the model as well as display first results. The case study has shown the flexibility and scalability of the introduced method to differentiate CI sector specifics. Consequently, the potential of the method to support flood risk management is discussed.

 

1 https://promaides.h2.de
On the evidence of orographic modulation of regional fine scale climate change signals based on raw and bias-adjusted CORDEX data: The Carpathians
Authors: Torma Csaba Zsolt , Simon Csilla , Kis Anna
Published: March 2022

Climate change is one of the greatest challenges in history. On the one hand, climate models can be useful tools for providing information on climate change, but on the other hand climate model simulations’ outputs are prone to biases compared to observations, which can be somewhat overcome by different bias‑adjustment techniques. Being the European branches of the international initiative called COordinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment (CORDEX): EURO-CORDEX and Med-CORDEX provide regional climate model (RCM) simulations targeting Europe. Present research focuses on precipitation and temperature change over sub-regions within the Carpathian Basin based on raw and bias-adjusted RCM data under the RCP8.5 scenario. The quality controlled and homogenized CARPATCLIM served as reference dataset for the bias-adjustment. The investigations explore temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2070-2099) with respect to 1976-2005. The comparative research seeks answer the question: how climate change will manifest in heavy rainfall and other temperature related climate indices over regions characterized by different topography?
Future Changes in Tropical Cyclone and Easterly Wave Characteristics over Tropical North America
Authors: Dominguez Christian
Published: March 2022

Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and Easterly Waves (EWs) are the most important phenomena in Tropical North America. Hydrometeorological hazards produced 45.5% of all disasters over Mexico during the 1900–2018 period. On average, TCs represent 86.5% of the annual cost of disasters in Mexico, and the main TC hazard is the extreme rainfall they produced. Thus, examining their future changes is crucial for adaptation and mitigation strategies. The Community Earth System Model drove a three-member regional model multi-physics ensemble under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 emission scenario for creating four future scenarios (2020–2030, 2030–2040, 2050–2060, 2080–2090). These future climate runs were analyzed to determine changes in EW and TC features: rainfall, track density, contribution to seasonal rainfall, and tropical cyclogenesis. Our study reveals that a mean increase of at least 40% in the mean annual TC precipitation is projected over northern Mexico and southwestern USA. Slight positive changes in EW track density are projected southwards 10° N over the North Atlantic Ocean for the 2050–2060 and 2080–2090 periods. Over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, a mean increment in the EW activity is projected westwards across the future decades. Furthermore, a mean reduction by up to 60% of EW rainfall, mainly over the Caribbean region, Gulf of Mexico, and central-southern Mexico, is projected for the future decades. Tropical cyclogenesis over both basins slightly changes in future scenarios (not significant). We concluded that these variations could have significant impacts on regional precipitation. Thus, Mexico should be prepared to face more TC extreme rainfall events. Suggestions for how Mexico can meet the objectives of international risk agendas are discussed.
Improving the design and implementation of sediment fingerprinting studies: Summary and outcomes of the TRACING 2021 Scientific School 
Authors: Evrard Olivier , Batista Pedro , Company Jaume , Dabrin Aymeric , Foucher Anthony , Frankl Amaury , García-Comendador Julián , Huguet Arnaud , Lake Niels , Lizaga Ivan , Martínez‑Carreras Núria , Navratil Oldrich , Pignol Cécile , Sellier Virginie
Published: March 2022

Sediment fingerprinting or tracing is a technique that allows to quantify source contributions of sediment. A Thematic School was organised in October 2021 to discuss potential options to improve the design and implementation of sediment fingerprinting procedures. The suggestions put forward by the School participants were organised around six complementary topics. First, we suggest a better use of geomorphological information to improve study design. Researchers are invited to scrutinize all the knowledge available on the catchment of interest, and to obtain multiple lines of evidence regarding sediment source contributions. Second, we think that scientific knowledge could be improved with local knowledge and we propose a scale of participation describing different levels of involvement of locals in research. Third, we recommend the use of state-of-the-art sediment tracing protocols to conduct sampling, deal with particle size, examine data before modelling and accounting for the hydro-meteorological context under investigation. Fourth, we promote best practices in modelling, including the importance of running multiple models, selecting appropriate tracers, and reporting on model errors and uncertainty. Fifth, we suggest best practices to share tracing data and samples, which will increase the visibility of the fingerprinting technique in geoscience. Sixth, we suggest that a better organisation of datasets would allow to formulate hypotheses and improve our knowledge about erosion processes in a more unified way. In conclusion, sediment fingerprinting, which is interdisciplinary in nature, should play a major role to meet the current and future challenges associated with global change.
Machine learning for postprocessing ensemble forecasts of wind gusts with a focus on European winter storms
Authors: Schulz Benedikt , Lerch Sebastian
Published: March 2022

Postprocessing ensemble weather predictions to correct systematic errors has become a standard practice in research and operations. However, only few recent studies have focused on ensemble postprocessing of wind gust forecasts, despite its importance for severe weather warnings, e.g. in European winter storms. First, we provide a comprehensive review and systematic comparison of several statistical and machine learning methods for probabilistic wind gust forecasting via ensemble postprocessing, then we assess the performance of selected methods within winter storms. The methods can be divided in three groups: State of the art postprocessing techniques from statistics (ensemble model output statistics (EMOS), member-by-member postprocessing, isotonic distributional regression), established machine learning methods (gradient-boosting extended EMOS, quantile regression forests) and neural network-based approaches (distributional regression network, Bernstein quantile network, histogram estimation network). The different approaches are systematically compared using six years of data from a high-resolution, convection-permitting ensemble prediction system run operationally at the German weather service, and hourly observations at 175 surface weather stations in Germany. While all postprocessing methods yield calibrated forecasts and are able to correct the systematic errors of the raw ensemble predictions, incorporating information from additional meteorological predictor variables beyond wind gusts as well as estimating locally adaptive neural networks leads to significant improvements in forecast skill. Assessing the performance of EMOS and neural network-based postprocessing for selected winter storms, we find that the networks better adapt to the extreme conditions than the statistical benchmark and thus yield a superior predictive performance. However, results suggest that the performance can still be further improved, e.g. via regime-dependent postprocessing.
A comparison of gravitational effects between a spherical zonal band and a spherical shell discretized using tesseroids
Authors: Deng Xiao-Le
Published: March 2022

Gravity forward modelling is one of the fundamental topics in geodesy and geophysics. A spherical shell is a commonly used reference model among the mass bodies for the spatial domain of gravity forward modelling. The reason is that it has simple analytical expressions for gravitational effects (e.g. gravitational potential (GP), gravity vector (GV), gravity gradient tensor (GGT), and gravitational or gravity curvatures (GC)). The finer grid size will need more computation time when adopting the numerical strategy of a spherical shell discretized using tesseroids. This contribution presents the simpler analytical expressions for the GV and GGT of a homogeneous zonal band. The new analytical formula of the GC of a homogeneous zonal band is derived. The computation time and relative errors of the GP, GV, GGT, and GC between a spherical zonal band and a spherical shell discretized using tesseroids are quantitatively investigated with different grid sizes. Numerical results reveal that the computation time of a spherical zonal band discretized using tesseroids is about 180/n (i.e. n is the grid size) times less than that of a spherical shell discretized using tesseroids in double and quadruple precision. The relative errors' mean values of the GP, GV, GGT, and GC for a spherical zonal band discretized using tesseroids are smaller than those for a spherical shell discretized using tesseroids. In short, the benefit of a spherical zonal band in comparison with a spherical shell discretized using tesseroids regarding both the computation time and errors is confirmed numerically. The numerical approach of a spherical zonal band discretized using tesseroids can be applied instead of the classical numerical strategy in numerical evaluation of a tesseroid or other spherical mass bodies in gravity field modelling. This study is supported by the project funded by China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (Grant No. 2021M691402).
Imaging evolution of Cascadia slow-slip event using high-rate GPS
Authors: Itoh Yuji , Aoki Yosuke , Fukuda Junichi
Published: March 2022

The short-term slow slip event (SSE), a class of slow earthquakes which has duration of a few to tens of days, is typically detected and modeled from daily static Global Positioning System (GPS) data. However, the daily GPS data cannot image the sub-daily SSE processes, so underlying mechanisms of SSEs have been still elusive. By processing the raw GPS observables in the kinematic analysis approach, we can obtain surface deformation field at the subdaily interval, which has great potential to overcome the time resolution issue present in the daily static GPS data. Although the kinematic GPS coordinates are known much noisier (~ cm) than the daily static coordinates (~ a few mm), recent applications to postseismic deformation studies achieved identifying sub-cm deformation. Motivated by them, we for the first time applied the kinematic GPS coordinates to model the short-term SSE.

We chose one Cascadia SSE in March – April 2017, which has been already reported from daily GNSS data, and performed the kinematic GPS analysis at a 30-second interval for observations during the event occurrence. Although the obtained raw coordinate series were quite noisy, we were able to discern the transient motion of a few mm during the event after carefully removing non-tectonic position fluctuation such as multipath effects, common mode errors and outliers.

Then, we inverted the cleaned data at a 30-minute interval using a Kalman-filter based method to infer spatiotemporal evolution of slip. The obtained spatiotemporal slip distribution exhibits a multi-stage evolution consisting of an isotropic growth of SSE and subsequent along-strike migration and termination. The transition of the slip growth mode occurs when the slip area fills the rheologically permitted down-dip width for the SSE occurrence. As conceptualized by Gomberg et al. (2016, GRL), this is analogous to the rupture growth of regular great earthquakes, so it implies the presence of common mechanical factors behind the two distinct slip phenomena. The inferred moment rate has two peaks, which are consistent with the daily tremor counts in this region.

We carried out another slip inversion using the daily static GPS data recorded during the same period and the same inversion method to investigate the performance and limitation of our kinematic GPS data. A moment rate inferred from the daily data has also two peaks, so our 30-minute inversion result has the comparable time resolution to that derived from the widely-used daily data. This is an astonishing result given the long-believed low signal-to-noise ratio of the kinematic GPS. Our results strongly highlight the importance of better understanding of the non-tectonic noise in the kinematic GPS analysis, which will further improve the temporal resolution of SSE.
LC-QTOF-MS analyses shed new light on dissolved organic matter composition and podzolization
Authors: Jansen Boris , Brock Olaf , Helmus Rick
Published: March 2022

Dissolved Organic Matter (DOM) in soils has received much research attention over the years. This is not surprising given the important role this most mobile fraction of soil organic matter plays in processes such as pedogenesis, transport and bioavailability of natural and anthropogenic compounds, and the soil’s C cycle. With the increasing advancement of analytical chemical tools, our capabilities of studying the behaviour and interaction of DOM have developed dramatically over the years. Particularly interesting has been the development of advanced molecular characterization tools such as LC-QTOF-MS. However, while showing great promise, the interpretation and aggregation of the vast amounts of data produced by such advanced molecular approaches is a challenge

Here we show how non-target screening by LC coupled to high resolution QTOF-MS detection can be applied to obtain meaningful information about the molecular composition of DOM derived from coniferous and deciduous tree leaf litter material. We highlight both the chemical analysis and the subsequent data interpretation steps needed to arrive at identification of chemical compounds and formulas. For the latter we used a data processing workflow with the in-house developed open-source patRoon software package. As a specific example of the new possibilities opened by this type of detailed characterization methods, we present the results of its application to shed light on the role of DOM in the formation of Podzols

References                        

Brock, O., Helmus, R., Kalbitz, K., & Jansen, B. (2020). European Journal of Soil Science, 71(3), 420-432. https://doi.org/10.1111/ejss.12894

Helmus, R., Ter Laak, T., Van Wezel, A., De Voogt, P. & Schymanski, E. (2021). Journal of Cheminformatics, 13(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s13321-020-00477-w
Disentangling the contribution of moisture source change to isotopic proxy signatures: Deuterium tracing with WRF-Hydro-iso-tag and application to Southern African Holocene sediment archives
Authors: Arnault Joel , Niezgoda Kyle , Jung Gerlinde , Hahn Annette , Zabel Matthias , Schefuss Enno , Kunstmann Harald
Published: March 2022

It is well accepted that global circulation models equipped with stable water isotopologues help to better understand the relationships between atmospheric circulation changes and isotope records in paleoclimate archives. Still, isotope-enabled models do not allow to precisely understand the processes affecting precipitation isotopic compositions, such as changes in precipitation amounts or moisture sources. Furthermore, the relevance of this model-oriented approach relies on the realism of modeled isotope results, that would support the interpretation of the records in terms of modeled climate changes. In order to alleviate these limitations, the newly developed WRF-Hydro-iso-tag, that is the version of the isotope-enabled regional coupled model WRF-Hydro-iso enhanced with an isotope tracing procedure, is presented. Physics-based WRF-Hydro-iso-tag ensembles are used to regionally downscale the isotope-enabled Community Earth System Model for Southern Africa, for two 10-year slices of mid-Holocene and pre-industrial times. The isotope tracing procedure is tailored in order to assess the origin of the hydrogen-isotope deuterium contained in Southern African precipitation, between two moisture sources that are the Atlantic and Indian Oceans. In comparison to the global model, WRF-Hydro-iso-tag simulates lower precipitation amounts with more regional details, and mid-Holocene-to-pre-industrial changes in precipitation isotopic compositions that better match plant-wax deuterium records from two marine sediment cores off the Orange and Limpopo River basins. Linear relationships between mid-Holocene-to-pre-industrial changes in temperature, precipitation amount, moisture source and precipitation deuterium compositions are derived from the ensembles results.
Quantifying the electron scattering by electrostatic fluctuations in the Earth’s bow shock
Authors: Kamaletdinov Sergey , Vasko Ivan , Artemyev Anton , Wang Rachel
Published: March 2022

Collisionless shocks are known to be natural sources of suprathermal particles, but the mechanism resulting in acceleration of thermal electrons to suprathermal energies still remains elusive. The problem is, that the Diffusive Shock Acceleration (DSA) becomes efficient only for suprathermal electrons, which fluxes in the far upstream region are relatively low. Recent studies have shown that the so-called Stochastic Shock Drift Acceleration (SSDA) mechanism can potentially provide the necessary pre-acceleration of incoming thermal electrons to suprathermal energies. In this mechanism, electrons are temporarily kept trapped in the shock transition region due to magnetic mirror reflection by the magnetic ramp and pitch-angle scattering of electrons trying to escape upstream by wave turbulence. Spacecraft measurements showed that broadband electrostatic turbulence is always present in the Earth’s bow shock, but its efficiency in scattering suprathermal electrons has not been estimated up to date. In this study we have quantified the electron scattering by the broadband electrostatic turbulence and, specifically, by electrostatic solitary waves (ion holes) substantially contributing to this turbulence in the Earth’s bow shock. Adopting the solitary wave and turbulence parameters typical of the Earth’s bow shock, we obtain quasi-linear scattering rates and compare these scattering rates to the results of test-particle simulations. This analysis showed that scattering of suprathermal electrons by the osberved electrostatic turbulence is relatively well estimated by the quasi-linear approach. We estimated the quasi-linear scattering rates at various energies and pitch-angles and demonstrated that the electrostatic turbulence in the Earth’s bow shock can provide pre-acceleration of thermal electrons from a few tens of eV to a few hundred eV via the SSDA mechanism.

This work was supported by the Russian Scientific Foundation, Project No. 19–12-00313
Generative machine learning methods for multivariate ensemble post-processing
Authors: Chen Jieyu , Lerch Sebastian , Janke Tim
Published: March 2022

Statistical post-processing of ensemble forecasts has become a common practice in research to correct biases and errors in calibration. While many of the developments have been focused on univariate methods that calibrate the marginal distributions, practical applications often require accurate modeling of spatial, temporal, and inter-variable dependencies. Copula-based multivariate post-processing methods, such as ensemble copula coupling, have been proposed to address this issue and proceed by reordering univariately post-processed ensembles with copula functions to retain the dependence structure. We propose a novel multivariate post-processing method based on generative machine learning where post-processed multivariate ensemble forecasts are generated from random noise, conditional on the inputs of raw ensemble forecasts. Moving beyond the two-step strategy of separately modeling marginal distributions and multivariate dependence structure, the generative modelling approach allows for directly obtaining multivariate probabilistic forecasts as output. The flexibility of the generative model also enables us to incorporate additional predictors straightforwardly and to generate an arbitrary number of post-processed ensemble members. In a case study on the surface temperature and wind speed forecasts from the European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecasts at weather stations in Germany, our generative model that incorporates additional weather predictors substantially improves upon the multivariate spatial forecasts from copula-based approaches. And the model shows competitive performance even with state-of-the-art neural network-based post-processing models applied for the marginal distributions.
Roadmap for long-term macroplastic monitoring in rivers
Authors: Vriend Paul , van Emmerik Tim , Copius Peereboom Eric
Published: March 2022

Macroplastic pollution in and around rivers negatively impacts human livelihood, and aquatic ecosystems. Monitoring data are crucial for better understanding and quantifying this problem, and for the design of effective intervention strategies. However, current monitoring efforts are often short duration, or study single river compartments. We present a ‘Roadmap’ to overcome the challenges related to the design and implementation of long-term riverine macroplastic monitoring strategies. This ‘Roadmap’ can help accelerating the process of achieving structural monitoring through providing a stepwise approach, which links monitoring goals and research questions to the data and methods required to answer them. We identify four monitoring goals: (1) policy, (2) knowledge development, (3) operations, and (4) solutions. Linked to these, we provide a non-exhaustive list of 12 globally common research questions that are important to answer to reach these goals. The ‘Roadmap’ takes these questions and links them to development levels of monitoring methods for each river compartment: (1) method development, (2) baseline assessment, and (3) long-term monitoring. At each level, specific questions can only be answered if the level is achieved for specific river compartments. For questions at higher levels, the previous levels need to be achieved first. This creates a clear stepwise approach to solve open challenges. With the ‘Roadmap’, we provide a new tool to support decision-making and planning of specific projects by policy makers. The ‘Roadmap’ is a clear and stepwise, yet flexible framework that allows to add and remove elements based on new insights, available resources, and other relevant changes.
The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam Webinar Diplomacy: echo chambers, open offices, or dialogic conversations?
Authors: Fantini Emanuele
Published: March 2022

In the past two years webinars on the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) proliferated, both as a contingent response to lockdown and travel restrictions, but also as a proactive strategy by diplomats, journalists, and researchers to promote their own views, agenda and representations about the dam. This study aims at contributing to debates on discursive water diplomacy and digital diplomacy, asking under which conditions can these webinars create a space for constructive (dialogic) conversation and conflict transformation. Relying on coding and analysis of a sample of webinars on the GERD organized between July 2020 and October 2021, as well as on semi-structured interviews to webinars’ organizers and speakers, the study sketches a typology of webinars – echo chambers, open offices, dialogic conversations – to elicit a reflection within the academic community on how we should engage in and contribute to these types of events in the “new normal” of a (post)lockdown world.
Evaluating probability distribution functions for the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index over Ethiopia
Authors: Yimer Estifanos Addisu , Van Schaeybroeck Bert , Van De Vyver Hans , Van Griensven Ann
Published: March 2022

Drought indices are used to identify and monitor drought events. Standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) is a widely used index based on accumulated water balance. There is, however, no broad consensus on which probability distribution is most appropriate for water balances. We investigate this issue for Ethiopia using 125 meteorological stations spread over the country. Based on long-term series, a selection was made among the generalized extreme value, Pearson type 3, and generalized logistics (Genlog) distributions. Additionally, the effect of using actual instead of potential evapotranspiration and a limited amount of data (10, 15, 20, and 25 years) is explored.

Genlog is found to be the best distribution for all accumulation periods. Furthermore, there is a considerable difference amongst the SPEI values estimated from the three distributions on the identification of extreme wet or extreme dry periods. Next, there are significant differences between standardized precipitation actual evapotranspiration index (SPAEI) and SPEI, signifying the importance of drought index selection and input data for proper drought monitoring. Finally, time series of 20 or 25 years of data lead to almost similar SPEI values as those estimated using more than 30 years of data so could potentially be used to assess drought in Ethiopia.

Key words: Drought; SPEI; Candidate distribution; Global datasets; SPAEI; short time series
Analysis of the CME and associated gradual SEP event of March 2013
Authors: Niemela Antonio , Wijsen Nicolas , Aran Angels , Rodriguez Luciano , Magdalenic Jasmina , Poedts Stefaan
Published: March 2022

We present the study of the propagation of energetic particles through a non-parkerian, data-driven solar wind solution for the event of 15 March 2013. In the study, we employed the recently coupled models EUHFORIA (EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset) and PARADISE (PArticle Radiation Asset Directed at Interplanetary Space Exploration). 

An Earth-directed, asymmetric, full halo CME erupted from the Sun on March 15, 2013. An associated GOES M1.1 X-ray flare was observed originating from the active region 11692, reaching its peak intensity at 06:58 UT. Shortly after, at 7:12 UT, a CME was observed by coronagraphs at both STEREO and SOHO/LASCO spacecraft. During March 16, the particle counts at L1 were enhanced, and measurements show different profiles for different energy ranges, with a distinct two-step increase in the lower energy channels lasting for several days. 

The 3D MHD heliospheric solar wind and CME evolution model EUHFORIA was used to simulate this event, with special emphasis on fitting the modeled and observed CME characteristics and signatures at Earth. The energetic particles (SEPs) were simulated with the newly developed solar energetic particle transport model PARADISE. The EUHFORIA simulation results were employed as the time-dependent ambient plasma characteristics. Particle populations with different characteristics were explored with the aim to accurately describe and reproduce the in situ measured particles. Moving sources of particles were incorporated in order to model the CME shock-generated part of the population. The first results of this complex simulation will be shown in this presentation.

 

This research has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 870405 (EUHFORIA 2.0).
The Landscape Fire Scars Database: mapping historical burned area and fire severity in Chile
Authors: Miranda Alejandro , Mentler Rayen , Moleto-Lobos Italo , Alfaro Gabriela , Aliaga Leonardo , Balbontín Dana , Barraza Maximiliano , Baumbach Susanne , Calderón Patricio , Cardenas Fernando , Castillo Ivan , Contreras Gonzalo , de la Barra Felipe , Galleguillos Mauricio , González Mauro , Hormazabal Carlos , Lara Antonio , Mancilla Ian , Muñoz Francisca , Oyarce Cristian , Pantoja Francisca , Ramirez Rocío , Urrutia Vicente
Published: March 2022

Abstract. Achieving a local understanding of fire regimes requires high resolution, systematic and dynamic databases. Highquality information can help to transform the evidence into decision-making in the context of rapidly changing landscapes, particularly considering that geographical and temporal patterns of fire regimes and their trends vary locally over time. Global fire scar products at low spatial resolutions are available, but high-resolution wildfire data, especially for developing countries, is still lacking. Taking advantage of the Google Earth Engine (GEE) big-data analysis platform, we developed a flexible workflow to reconstruct individual burned areas and derive fire severity estimates for all reported fires. We tested our approach for historical wildfires in Chile. The result is the Landscape Fire Scars Database, a detailed and dynamic database that reconstructs 8,153 fires scars representing 66.6 % of the country’s officially recorded fires between 1985 and 2018. For each fire event the database contains the following information: (i) Landsat mosaic of pre- and post-fire images; (ii) the fire scar in binary format; (iii) the remotely sensed estimated fire indexes (NBR, RdNBR), plus two vector files indicating (iv) the fire scar perimeter and (v) the fire scar severity reclassification. The Landscape Fire Scars Database for Chile and GEE script (JavaScript) are publicly available. The framework developed for the database can be applied anywhere in the world, the only requirement being its adaptation to local factors such as data availability, fire regimes, land cover or land cover dynamics, vegetation recovery, and cloud cover.
Landslides triggered by the 2015 Mw 6.0 Sabah (Malaysia) earthquake: inventory and ESI-07 intensity assignment
Authors: Ferrario Maria Francesca
Published: March 2022

Abstract. On 4 June 2015, a Mw 6.0 earthquake occurred in the Sabah region (Malaysia), triggering widespread landslides along the slopes of Mt. Kinabalu. Despite the moderate magnitude, the Sabah earthquake was very efficient in triggering landslides: here I provide an inventory containing 5198 slope movements, mapped in an 810 km2-wide area. I investigate earthquake intensity using the Environmental Seismic Intensity (ESI-07) scale, which is a macroseismic scale based exclusively on earthquake environmental effects. The epicentral ESI-07 intensity is assessed at IX, considering the dimension of the area affected by secondary effects; such figure agrees well with a dataset of global earthquakes. I estimate the volume of individual landslides using area-volume scaling laws, then I assigned an ESI-07 intensity to each mapped landslide. I document that the selection of a given area-volume relation has a minor influence on the ESI-07 assignment. Then, I compare ESI-07 values to landslide density and areal percentage on a 1-km2 grid; such parameters are widely adopted in the description of earthquake-triggered landslide inventories. I argue that their integration with the ESI-07 scale may provide an effective way to compare earthquake damage on a variety of spatial and temporal scales. The methodological workflow here illustrated is useful in joining the scientific communities dealing with the realization of earthquake-triggered landslide inventories and with ESI-07 assignment; I believe this effort is beneficial for both the communities.
Subglacial hydrology modulates basal sliding response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate forcing
Authors: Kazmierczak Elise , Sun Sainan , Coulon Violaine , Pattyn Frank
Published: March 2022

Abstract. Major uncertainties in the response of ice sheets to environmental forcing are due to subglacial processes. These processes pertain to the type of sliding or friction law as well as the spatial and temporal evolution of the effective pressure at the base of ice sheets. We evaluate the classical Weertman/Budd sliding law for different power exponents (viscous to near plastic) and for different representations of effective pressure at the base of the ice sheet, commonly used for hard and soft beds. The sensitivity of above slip laws is evaluated for the Antarctic ice sheet in two types of experiments, i.e., (i) the ABUMIP experiments in which ice shelves are instantaneously removed, leading to rapid grounding line retreat and ice sheet collapse, and (ii) the ISMIP6 experiments with realistic ocean and atmosphere forcings for different RCP scenarios. Results confirm earlier work that the power in the sliding law is the most determining factor in the sensitivity of the ice sheet, where a higher power in the sliding law leads to increased mass loss for a given forcing. Here we show that spatial and temporal changes in water pressure or water flux at the base modulates basal sliding for a given power. In particular, subglacial models depending on subglacial water pressure decrease effective pressure significantly near the grounding line, leading to an increased sensitivity for a given power in the sliding law.
LOWER LIMB ASSISTANCE SYSTEMS: A STATE OF THE ART
Authors: Garcia Velarde Miguel Angel , Alcocer Rosado Wilberth Melchor , Blanco Ortega Andres , Abúndez Arturo , Cortés Claudia , Colin Jorge
Published: March 2022

In this paper, we present a state of the art regarding lower limb assistance systems. That is, exoskeletons, exosuits, actuated orthoses and smart walkers intended to assist users with or without walking difficulties in such task. We focus on those systems headed towards motion intention prediction, especially those that implement myosignals in order to control the system. However, there are some using cortical or encephaloelectric signals. We make clear the importance of developing this technology for the sake of userâ€™s health, when regarding people with reduced motor capacity. After the reviewed systems, we bring forward our own system intended to assist hemiplegic/hemiparetic patients walking by predicting motion intention. The main differentiator of our design shall be energy saving as it is being designed to actuate the hip only during swing phase. Thus, hypothetically allowing the system to save 40% energy, compared to the same system actuated during the whole walking cycle.
SORET AND DUFOUR EFFECTS ON MHD FLOW WITH HEAT AND MASS TRANSFER PAST AN EXPONENTIALLY STRETCHING SHEET
Authors: Verma Krishnandan , B. R. Sharma
Published: March 2022

The current study aims to explore the impact of  Soret and Dufour effects past a stretching surface with heat and mass transfer on MHD fluid flow including the effects of heat sink and radiation. Similarity transformations are employed to deduce the governing partial differential equations of flow, heat and mass transfer to system of nonlinear ODEâ€™s. The equations together with boundary conditions so obtained are solved using numerical technique by employing Matlabâ€™s solver bvp4c. The graph of fluid velocity, temperature and concentration distributions are obtained for different parameters for the deep analysis of the problem. It is observed that Soret and Dufour effects show notable contribution towards heat and mass transfer where the latter boosts the rate of mass transfer, and the former raises the heat transfer rate. The accuracy of the numerical solution is confirmed by comparing our results with the outcomes of previous work on stretching sheet and the results show good agreement.
KINERJA KEUANGAN DAN PENGUNGKAPAN CORPORATE RESPONSIBILITY PERBANKAN SYARIAH DI INDONESIA
Authors: Maufur Miqdam , Basit Abdul , Ihsan Akmal , Hasbi M. Zidny Nafi’
Published: March 2022

Performance has an effect on CSR disclosure of Islamic Commercial Banks in Indonesia. The financial performance variable uses the profitability ratios (ROA, ROE, NIM), while the CSR measurement uses the ISR indicator. The sample in this study uses 6 Islamic Commercial Banks with a data period from 2014-2016. Data analysis in this study used multiple linear regression. The results of this study are Return on Assets (ROA) has a significant positive effect on CSR disclosure, Return on Equity (ROE) has a significant positive effect on CSR disclosure, and Net Income Margin (NIM) has an insignificant positive effect on CSR disclosure. Together, the ROA, ROE, and NIM variables have a significant effect on the disclosure of Islamic Bank CSR in Indonesia in 2014-2019.
STRATEGI PENINGKATAN BRAND AWARENESS DAN AKTIFITAS PROMOSI DALAM SPORT EVENT (STUDI KASUS: EVENT MAYBANK BALI MARATHON 2019, GIANYAR, BALI)
Authors: Permatasari Dwi Novita Cahyaningtyas
Published: March 2022

Sporting events are one of the subjects in MICE related to the niche tourism development. Various promotional activities through sport event is used to increase brand awareness. It brings strong implications for many aspects of tourism development. Marathon has become very popular sport in 2019. Maybank made a breakthrough strategy to take advantage of this trend through organizing Maybank Bali Marathon 2019. Maybank Marathon achieved “Bronze Label” from World Athletics, became the first in Indonesia. However, Maybank's level of brand awareness in Bali needs to be evaluated. Based on the preliminary research conducted, most of the people were aware of the event but were not familiar with the bank's financial products. The method used in this study is a mix method by conducting survey of 100 respondents with random sampling technique and analyzed using descriptive analysis. Brand awareness is measured by characterizing four elements of David A. Aaker's theory namely top of mind, brand recall, brand recognition, unaware of brand. The results show that Maybank does not occupy the top of mind or brand recall levels, and there are only few respondents who recognize the logo and tagline, 60% of respondents do not aware Maybank brand. Interesting fact, although most respondents are not familiar with Maybank, almost all respondents (91%) are aware of the Maybank Bali Marathon event. Maybank's promotion scheme was analyzed using The Marketing Funnel theory by Adam Cohen and finally strategy was formulated using SWOT analysis.
Assessment of Knowledge, Perception and Perceived Stress towards COVID-19 Vaccination among People in Selected Community of West Bengal
Authors: Karmakar Aditi
Published: March 2022

In human, various types of Coronaviruses causes serious problem. In early March, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the Corona Virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a global pandemic. COVID-19 is a new strain of Coronavirus and scientists are still collecting information and conducting research on the virus. Vaccination is the most effective strategy to protect the population from COVID-19 infection and several vaccines have been approved against the disease globally. But, the knowledge, perception and perceived stress towards COVID-19 vaccination among general community people are very poorly understood. Thus, the present study aimed to investigate the knowledge, perception and perceived stress towards COVID-19 vaccination among selected community people in West Bengal and it is observed that 66.75% people had moderate knowledge, 98.75% people had positive perception and 66.25% had moderate stress towards COVID -19 vaccination.

Keywords: Corona Virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Vaccination, Knowledge, Perception, Perceived stress, Community people.