bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Improved QPE for the Ahr flooding event using weather radar and CML data
Authors: Graf Maximilian , Polz Julius , Chen JuYu , Winterrath Tanja , Trömel Silke , Chwala Christian
Published: February 2023

Extreme floods are one of the most severe natural disasters. In a recent example, long-lasting heavy rainfall over central Europe led to devastating flooding in several catchments in Germany and Belgium on the 14th and 15th of July 2021. The valley of the river Ahr in the German state of Rhineland-Palatinate was heavily affected by this flooding with over 100 casualties and a loss of over 20 billion Euros. Quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) during this event was affected by several issues. Rain gauge measurements suffered from underestimation and were not available due to power outages towards the end of the event. Weather radar measurements underestimated the rainfall amount due to pronounced vertical gradients of precipitation below the melting layer. Rainfall products from these two sensors were not able to explain the discharge values within the Ahr catchment.A potential solution to improve the rainfall estimation for the Ahrtal event and radar rainfall estimation in general is to add additional rainfall information. This is commonly done by adjusting the radar derived rainfall fields to rain gauges. Here we use opportunistic sensors, namely commercial microwave links (CMLs), which have previously not been used for radar adjustment. We show QPE based on different radar products, each of them with and without an adjustment via CML rainfall estimates. We use the unadjusted RADOLAN product RY and two own polarimetric radar QPEs, of which one is enhanced with specific corrections based on MRR data and combined with a local X-Band gap-filling radar. We perform additive and multiplicative adjustment of the radar QPEs on an hourly basis with CML data, taking into account the path-averaging nature of the CML observations. Our results show that the CML adjustment significantly improves RADOLAN-RY and the polarimetric product without enhancement. The enhanced polarimetric product is already in very good agreement with the reference data and hence is not improved much. The applied enhancements from MRR and X-Band radar data are currently not suitable for operational usage, though. Radar-adjustment with CML data, which is available in real-time without delay, hence provides a suitable solution to improve operational QPE.
Quantifying the different forcing contributions to the climate under the adaptive emission scenarios.
Authors: Lee Donghyun , Allen Myles , Sparrow Sarah
Published: February 2023

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a special report on global warming of 1.5°, emphasizing the necessity of urgent and strict mitigation policies to achieve the warming levels of the Paris Agreement. To explore the possible worlds at the warming levels of the Paris Agreement, a brand-new experiment, the adaptive emission reduction approach (AERA), is launched, calibrating the future CO2 emission pathways by considering the transient climate response of the model to the cumulative emission amount of CO2 forcing equivalent (CO2-fe).While waiting for the AERA protocol results with expensive tools, Earth System Models (ESMs), we explore the likely range of adaptive emission scenario runs by utilizing the fastest and most effective tools. Here we suggest the simple emulator, FaIR, composed of three thermal energy boxes and four carbon-cycle pools. We tested thousands of FaIR ensembles to perform the AERA algorithm and confirm the capability of FaIR to estimate the likely ranges of ESMs. Notably, this FaIR can act as the bridge for inter-mediate complexity models (e.g., HadCM3 and CLIMBER-X) to interact with the AERA algorithm by emulating the carbon-cycle characteristics part of GCMs.Despite different climate sensitivity in ensemble members, 2450 FaIR, nine HadCM3-FaIR, and six CLIMBER-FaIR ensembles well stabilized at the target temperatures of 1.5°C and 2.0°C by 2100. The residual cumulative emission amount of CO2-fe since 2021 is about 0.71 and 1.77 TtCO2-fe for 1.5°C and 2.0°C levels. We further quantified the contributions from each anthropogenic forcings to the climate of mitigated worlds with FaIR emulations. While CO2 is the most dominant driver for 2.0°C warming (about 83% of total warming), anthropogenic aerosol plays a vital role in stabilizing a warming level at 1.5°C. The reduction of aerosols by 2100 additionally provides positive radiative forcings, and this size is equivalent to the increase in CO2-fe emission amount of 1 TtCO2-fe, which leads to the temperature rise by 0.57°C. The non-CO2 GHG (like methane or fluorinated gases) offsets the emission amount of CO2-fe about 0.57 TtCO2-fe and reduces the warming levels by 0.35°C. Despite the considerable uncertainty in climate responses to anthropogenic aerosols, our results illustrate their notable contributions, at least for the 1.5°C world. In addition, we plan to explore the forcing-driven contributions to the changes in precipitation based on the equations reflecting the favorable atmospheric energy conditions to precipitate.   
Interactions between natural short-lived halogens and atmospheric oxidation capacity
Authors: Fernandez Rafael , Li Qinyi , Cuevas Carlos , Fu Xiao , Kinnison Douglass , Tilmes Simone , Mahajan Anoop , Gomez-Martin Juan Carlos , Iglesias-Suarez Fernando , Hossaini Ryan , Plane John , Myhre Gunnar , Lamarque Jean-Francoise , Saiz-Lopez Alfonso
Published: February 2023

Observational evidence shows the ubiquitous presence of short-lived halogens in the global atmosphere. This includes the biogenic contribution of organic very short-lived halocarbons as well as the abiotic source of inorganic halogens throughout heterogeneous recycling. All of these species are naturally emitted from the oceans, polar ice, and the biosphere, presenting a pronounced spatio-temporal source strength that controls the regional, vertical and seasonal distribution in the troposphere. In addition, anthropogenic emissions of reactive halogens, both organic and inorganic, have been identified in the atmosphere. Most notably, short-lived halogen emissions influence the oxidative capacity of the troposphere and consequently the concentration of ozone and methane. In this communication, we use the halogen version of CAM-Chem to evaluate how these interactions evolve across pre-industrial, present-day, and future climates under different halogen emission scenarios.
A comprehensive synthesis of anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of Australasia carbon budget (2010-2019)
Authors: Villalobos Yohanna , Canadell Pep , Briggs Peter , Harman Ian , Keller Elizabeth D. , Bukosa Beata , Mikaloff-Fletcher Sara E. , Smith Ben , Kirschbaum Miko UF. , Giltrap Donna , Liang Liyin , Lauerwald Ronny , Rosentreter Judith , Maavara Taylor , Resplandy Laure , Rayner Peter J. , Schöemann Eva , Basu Sourish
Published: February 2023

Accurate national carbon budget assessments allow nations to evaluate their progress in cutting carbon emissions and therefore be aligned with the Paris Climate Agreement goals. To support the initiative of The REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP-2), we built a synthesis of the Australasia (Australia and New Zealand) terrestrial carbon budget for 2010-2019 based on top-down and bottom-up approaches. Major carbon flux components in the bottom-up budget (e.g., net primary productivity and heterotrophic respiration) were simulated by CABLE model, Biome-BGC model and Cewn simulations. In addition, this budget include carbon flux components from the land-ocean aquatic continuum, such as inland waters, estuaries, blue carbon ecosystems, and continental shelves and carbon fluxes embodied in trade (export and import) of crops, woods, livestock and fossil fuel. We reconciled Australia and New Zealand bottom-up budgets separately with fluxes derived from regional and global OCO-2, GOSAT flux inversions, as well as fluxes obtained from in-situ measurement only (CarbonWatchNZ). We found that annual mean budgets for Australia agree relatively well (within the uncertainty range) with regional and global top-down GOSAT and OCO-2 flux estimates. New Zealand's annual bottom-up carbon budget also agrees relatively well with fluxes derived from CarbonWatchNZ inversion and GOSAT but disagrees with global flux estimates from OCO-2.
Properties of Limb Clouds at Mars determined from the Emirates Mars Mission (EMM) eXploration Imager (EXI)
Authors: Almansoori Alia , Rothman Michael , Brain Dave , Wolff Michael , Stcherbinine Aurélien , Deighan Justin
Published: February 2023

Observations of clouds in planetary atmospheres can provide insight about atmospheric characteristics such as vertical temperature structure and dynamics. Clouds observed at the limb of a planet (from the perspective of the telescope or spacecraft observing them) can be particularly useful tools, in part because their height above the surface can be measured directly.The Emirates Mars Mission (EMM) has been recording visible light images of the Martian disk since early 2021, using the Emirates eXploration Imager (EXI). We present an analysis of limb clouds evident in EXI images taken using its red filter (centered on 635 nm) over the course of a Martian year. We present statistics on their height, thickness, spatial extent, and geographic and local time distribution – as well as correlations between these parameters. We place our results in context with previous work, and explore reasons for observed trends.
Potential of Angular Velocity Sensing for the gravity field recovery in GRACE-like missions
Authors: Yan Yihao , Müller Vitali , Wang Changqing , Heinzel Gerhard
Published: February 2023

GRACE-like missions (GRACE, GRACE-FO) are used to map the global time-varying Earth gravity field, which has brought a revolution in geodesy as well as the other subjects of geophysics. Their key payloads are mainly the inter-satellite ranging system: K-Band Ranging system (KBR) for GRACE, KBR and laser ranging interferometer (LRI) for GRACE-FO, of which both measure the distance variations between the twin satellites; the accelerometers to recover the non-gravitational force on the satellites; the satellite attitude measurement components such as star cameras (SCA), Inertial Measurement Unit (IMU) and LRI Fast Steering Mirror (FSM); and GPS receivers for precise orbit determination. Currently, the observation equations used to establish the gravity field recovery are based on observations from inter-satellite range (or range rate) and GPS orbit. However, we will show that the three-dimensional orientation change of the line-of-sight (LOS) connecting both satellites, i.e., the angular velocity vector of the LOS, contains gravity information perpendicular to the LOS. If future missions can measure the angular velocity with sufficient precision, this will increase the resolution of the satellite pair in the East-West direction and decrease the stripe effects in the North-South direction, thus further improving the accuracy of the gravity field solution. We developed observation equations based on the dynamic approach for the angular velocity sensing (AVS) observations and solved them jointly with the observation equations obtained from GPS and KBR/LRI. Our simulation results show that the angular velocity can indeed recover the gravity field in combination with GPS and the results are better than those obtained using only a combination of KBR/LRI and GPS. The optimal results are obtained when the gravity field is solved by combining AVS, KBR/LRI and GPS at the same time. We further analyzed the accuracy requirements of the angular velocity sensing that would allow for improving gravity field solutions in the next generation of gravity missions.
A novel tool implementation to estimate the Land Use Sustainability for crops production under different climate change scenarios
Authors: Galve Joan Miquel , Garrido-Rubio Jesús , González-Piqueras José , Osann Anna , Calera Alfonso , López Maria Llanos , Henao Esteban , Sánchez David , Puchades Jesús , Molina Antonio Jesús , Papadaskalopoulou Christina , Antoniadou Marina , Tassopoulos Dimitris
Published: February 2023

The sustainability of crop production regarding different climate change scenarios will compromise actors and activities involved in agri-food systems. Furthermore, sustainable development was defined by the World Commission on Environment and Development as the ability to meet present demands without compromising the needs of future generations. In parallel, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), land evaluation is the process of projecting land use potential based on its characteristics, and it has been the principal approach used worldwide to manage land use planning. Its use today is required due to changing needs and pressures from decision-making policies or agricultural market tendencies among others, so a rational use of natural land is a crucial goal for economic development. However, future climate change scenarios will modify the actual crop development conditions and must be tackled.This paper presents two case studies at the river basin scale to determine the Land Use Suitability (LUS) analysis that is performed according to the FAO framework, thus, areas that are the most suitable for crops using GIS and multicriteria methodology that involves actual and future climatic conditions under different climate change scenarios, crop management practices and edaphological conditions for different crops. The tool developed generates a product that classifies areas suitable for a particular crop from a collection of maps and their corresponding thresholds. The approach involves standardizing the suitability maps, assigning relative importance weights to the suitability maps, and then combining the weights and the standardized suitability maps to obtain a suitability score.In this paper, the wheat crop LUS at the Júcar River Basin (42,735 Km2, located in Spain) and the cotton LUS at the Pinios River Basin 11,000 km2, located in Greece) are evaluated. Once the LUS is estimated, a collection of yearly thematic maps over both river basins is ready for use by local stakeholders, regarding different climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5).These results are part of the EU Horizon 2020 project REXUS (Managing Resilient Nexus Systems Through Participatory Systems Dynamics Modelling), in which local stakeholders, from farmers to land use managers, are collecting and evaluating the information. Our final goal is to provide spatial information for future climate change scenarios that increase land-use knowledge and enhance decision-making policies.
A 15N isotope tracer study to assess the effects of combined biochar and urea inputs on soil N dynamics
Authors: Fiorentino Nunzio , Sánchez-Monedero Miguel Angel , Lehmann Johannes , Enders Akio , Fagnano Massmo , Cayuela Maria Luz
Published: February 2023

Biochar amendment can significantly affect soil N transformations even if the mechanisms remain largely unknown. A 15N tracer study was carried out to investigate priming effect of combined biochar and urea inputs on soil inorganic N pools. Two complementary laboratory experiments were conducted to monitor the partitioning between three N sources (native soil N, biochar-derived N and urea-derived N): (i) in the first experiment, three 15N-labeled organic amendments (wheat straw (WS)), its biochars produced at 350 °C (B350) and at 550 °C (B550) were added to soil in combination with unlabeled urea; (ii) in the second experiment the three same, but unlabeled, amendments were added to soil in combination with 15N labeled urea. In addition, CO2 fluxes were measured to follow total C mineralization in soil and N2O emissions were monitored. Biochar-derived N at the end of the incubation period was always below 0.5% while the co-addition of urea increased the concentration of NH4+ derived from B350, but not from B550. A rapid immobilization of N followed the addition of WS while none of the biochars, applied at a rate of 1.5%, immobilized inorganic N in soil. On the contrary, B550 amendment was associated with significantly higher NH4+ concentrations derived from native soil organic N (SON throughout the incubation. This effect can be attributed to an apparent priming effect since a net decrease in CO2 fluxes was recorded when biochar was added to the soil. The addition of glucose (a low molecular weight carbon source) enhanced CO2 fluxes in all treatments along with a net N immobilization in soil. However, both biochars significantly reduced C readily available to microbes, as proved by lower soil CO2 fluxes, and limited the immobilization of NH4+ induced by glucose addition. Our results suggest that biochar may partially offset the mineralization of easily available organic C, buffering the immobilization of inorganic N in soil when labile organic compounds (e.g. root exudates, fresh manure, etc.) are incorporated.
Impact of Atmospheric Rivers on the Arctic Surface Energy Budget
Authors: Tiedeck Sofie , Kirbus Benjamin , Lauer Melanie , Crewell Susanne , Gorodetskaya Irina , Rinke Annette
Published: February 2023

Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) are long, narrow atmospheric structures which carry anomalously warm and moist air from lower latitudes into higher latitudes. Therefore, ARs are discussed to contribute to Arctic Amplification due to water vapor feedback and cloud-radiation processes. The detailed impact on the surface energy budget (SEB), however, is not fully understood.We analyze the impact of ARs on the SEB of an early winter and spring case study, using ERA5 reanalysis data and model output from limited area simulations of ICON (ICON-LAM). Both cases show less energy loss of the surface compared to climatology, especially due to more downward longwave radiation and less upward sensible heat. The effect depends on the surface type, open ocean or sea ice. Next, we provide a climatological perspective on the impact of Atmospheric Rivers on the SEB based on ERA5.
Observation-based estimates of volume, heat and freshwater exchanges between the subpolar North Atlantic interior, its boundary currents and the atmosphere
Authors: Jones Sam , Fraser Neil , Cunningham Stuart , Fox Alan , Inall Mark
Published: February 2023

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) transports heat and salt between the tropical Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. The interior of the North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre (SPG) is responsible for the much of the water mass transformation in the AMOC, and the export of this water to intensified boundary currents is crucial for projecting air-sea interaction onto the strength of the AMOC. However, the magnitude and location of exchange between the SPG and the boundary remains unclear. We present a novel climatology of the SPG boundary using quality controlled CTD and Argo hydrography, defining the SPG interior as the oceanic region bounded by 47° N and the 1000m isobath.  From this hydrography we find geostrophic flow out of the SPG around much of the boundary with minimal seasonality.  The horizontal density gradient is reversed around West Greenland, where the geostrophic flow is into the SPG.  Surface Ekman forcing drives net flow out of the SPG in all seasons with pronounced seasonality, varying between 2.45 ± 0.73 Sv in the summer and 7.70 ± 2.90 Sv in the winter.  We estimate heat advected into the SPG to be between 0.14 ± 0.05 PW in the winter and 0.23 ± 0.05 PW in the spring, and freshwater advected out of the SPG to be between 0.07 ± 0.02 Sv in the summer and 0.15 ± 0.02 Sv in the autumn. These estimates approximately balance the surface heat and freshwater fluxes over the SPG domain. Overturning in the SPG varies seasonally, with a minimum of 6.20 ± 1.40 Sv in the autumn and a maximum of 10.17 ± 1.91 Sv in the spring, with surface Ekman the most likely primary driver of this variability.  The density of maximum overturning is at 27.30 kgm-3, with a second, smaller maximum at 27.54 kgm-3.  Upper waters (σ0 < 27.30 kgm-3) are transformed in the interior then exported as either intermediate water (27.30-27.54 kgm-3) in the North Atlantic Current (NAC) or as dense water (σ0 > 27.54 kgm-3) exiting to the south.  Our results support the present consensus that the formation and pre-conditioning of subpolar Mode Water in the north-eastern Atlantic is a key determinant of AMOC strength.
Variability of the deep ocean circulation off Chile
Authors: Pizarro Oscar
Published: February 2023

Along the coasts of Peru and Chile there are large disturbances associated with the El Niño-La Niña. These low-frequency disturbances can force Rossby waves that propagate vertically modulating stratification and deep flow variations below 2000 m. In this work, direct observations of currents made between 1992 and 2011 are used together with velocity, temperature, and salinity series from the Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean model to analyze the variability of deep currents in the eastern Pacific near 30°S. We found that much of the low-frequency variability observed in the deep ocean is associated with Rossby wave propagation. A significant fraction of the energy that propagates vertically is dissipated in the deep ocean, helping to maintain a deep poleward flux in this region, which is a key component of the eastern branch of the South Pacific meridional overturning cell.
Dynamic forecasting of the next largest earthquake during hydraulic fracturing stimulations
Authors: Grigoratos Iason , Kwiatek Grzegorz , Wiemer Stefan
Published: February 2023

Most traffic-light systems (TLS) related hydraulic fracturing stimulations still adopt the maximum observed magnitude as the decisive metric to aid decision making by stakeholders. However, waiting for the red-light magnitude to be observed is not a proactive stance, especially given that jumps of up to two magnitude units are evidently common enough between events. Clearly there is a need to actively forecast rather than to passively record the size of the next largest earthquake (NLE). In this study, we demonstrate that we can do just that using an ensemble of 6 existing models from the literature designed with similar purposes in mind (Shapiro et al. 2013; McGarr 2014; Mendecki 2016; van der Elst et al. 2016; Galis et al. 2017; Cao et al. 2020). Following a logic-tree approach, these 6 models are calibrated and dynamically weighted in near real-time using as sole inputs the initial parts of the earthquake catalogs and the reported injection rates. The proposed forecasting tool is tested against 18 past stimulations from 9 different Enhanced Geothermal Systems around the world (Helsinki, Basel, Soultz, Cooper Basin, Basel, Pohang, FORGE, Paralana, Newberry). Overall, the results indicate a consistent (across sites and time) and accurate estimation of the next largest magnitude with a tight uncertainty range (1σ) of less than 0.5 magnitude units. Our proposed framework underestimated the next largest magnitude only in one occasion (out of the 18 stimulations), while reliably maintaining a tight safety margin of less than 1 magnitude unit. We recommend that the forecasted NLE replaces the largest observed magnitude as the default metric adopted by future TLS governing any type of fluid-injection operation. 
Transfer patterns of pharmaceuticals used in agriculture into streams under Mediterranean climate at the catchment-scale
Authors: Hachgenei Nico , Nord Guillaume , Spadini Lorenzo , Robinet Nicolas , Baduel Christine , Duwig Céline
Published: February 2023

Livestock-breeding relies on a large array of pharmaceuticals. Many of them may pose a risk to aquatic life if they reach surface water bodies.  Depending on their physicochemical properties, some pharmaceuticals present strong sorption coefficients and are thus not expected to reach surface water bodies under most conditions. Mediterranean climate is characterized by a dry summer followed by intense storm events. We studied the effect of this climatic condition on the risk of transfer of pharmaceutical residues to streams at the catchment-scale. The study area is the 42km2 Claduègne catchment in the French Ardèche department. It is characterized by extensive agricultural land-use under Mediterranean climate.Surveys with local livestock farmers were conducted in order to identify the commercial pharmaceutical products and the active ingredients systematically used in the study area as well as their application rate, frequencies and seasonal patterns. Stream water was analyzed on high frequency (up to 3h-1) during flood events and compared to some samples outside of flood events. A total of 32 liquid water samples were collected and analyzed for 3 veterinary pharmaceuticals systematically used in the study area as well as 14 molecules of various use. They were concentrated via solid phase extraction and analyzed using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) coupled to a tandem mass spectrometer. The concentration values where below the limits of detection (0.1 - 1 ng L-1) most of the time, but peaked at high concentrations for short periods during flood events. The concentration reached up to 355 times the Predicted No Effect Concentration (PNEC) for Fenbendazole FBZ, the antiparasitic used in pork in the region. This indicates that rapid transfer processes during flood events represent an elevated risk of transfer of these molecules toward streams. Parallel transit time modelling revealed high event water fractions during flood events in the studied catchment.We conclude that under these climatic conditions, special care should be taken after treatment application to avoid pastures that are hydrologically connected to surface water bodies. In addition, the results suggest that low-frequency monitoring is not sufficient to detect these high concentration levels that exist during very short durations of a few hours or less.
Numerical Analysis of a Spanish Supercell Outbreak
Authors: Calvo-Sancho Carlos , Díaz-Fernández Javier , González-Alemán Juan Jesús , Martín Yago , Quitián-Hernandez Lara , Bolgiani Pedro , Santos-Muñoz Daniel , Farrán José Ignacio , Sastre Mariano , Martín Maria Luisa
Published: February 2023

On July 31 2015, a supercell outbreak occurred in Spain, causing significant damage and disruption. More than 20 supercells were responsible for producing multiple large hail, flash floods, and severe wind gusts. The outbreak was driven by a deep shortwave trough over the Iberian Peninsula, bringing with it a strong geopotential height gradient and instability in the Iberian Peninsula. On the front side of the trough axis, positive vorticity advection and divergence helped to promote and strengthen the upper-level forcing favoring thunderstorm episodes.The event was simulated using the WRF-ARW model, in which several convective variables and instability indices were studied. To track the supercells, a python-based supercell tracking tool was used. This tool identified and tracked every supercell resolved by the model, and these results were verified with the supercell database. Reanalysis and sounding data revealed pre-convective environments favorable for supporting supercells development (i.e., high-level instability coupled with strong deep-layer shear). The results indicate large interaction between topography, convective initiation and supercell life-cycle, inducing their dynamics and the growth of mesocyclones.The use of the WRF-ARW model and python-based supercell tracking tool allowed for a better understanding of the event and can help improve future forecasting and warning efforts.
Observing and analysing seismicity with a permanet 6C station
Authors: Brotzer Andreas , Igel Heiner , Bernauer Felix , Wassermann Joachim , Mellors Robert , Vernon Frank
Published: February 2023

In September 2022, a three-component rotational rate sensor (blueSeis-3A) provided by IRIS has been deployed at the underground vault of the Piñon Flat Observatory (PFO) near San Diego in California. A three-component broadband seismometer (Trillium 240s) is co-located on the granite pier, creating a 6C station for permanent observations of local and regional seismicity and wavefield studies. The permanent record is streamed online via IRIS and freely available with all required metadata (station: BlueSeis at Pinon Flat = BSPF). Additionally, the site offers observations of strain by optical fiber and vacuum laser strainmeters at PFO, allowing to study 7 components of the seismic wavefield in a quiet area with regard to seismic noise, but high seismicity (e.g. San Andreas fault zone, San Jacinto fault zone). Such a setup enables advanced studies of the seismic wavefield. Dense, large-N nodal experiments, temporarily deployed around PFO could provide dense sampling of the seismic wavefield for comparison studies. The seismic array of borehole sensors at PFO is well designed to compute array derived rotations with enables a direct comparison with the rotational record and applied methods. Moreover, the array is employed to compare array analysis with 6C methods (e.g. backazimuth estimation, wavefield separation, source tracking, local subsurface velocity changes). We present characteristics on the 6C station and preliminary analysis results.
Physical mechanisms of offshore propagation of convection in the Maritime Continent
Authors: Peatman Simon , Birch Cathryn , Schwendike Juliane , Marsham John , Dearden Chris , Webster Stuart , Howard Emma , Woolnough Steven , Neely Ryan , Matthews Adrian
Published: February 2023

The Maritime Continent, located within the Indo-Pacific warm pool, experiences some of the most intense convective rainfall on Earth, with a pronounced diurnal cycle. The spatio-temporal variability of convection, its organisation and its offshore propagation away from the islands overnight all depend on many factors including the topography of island coastlines and mountains, and large-scale weather phenomena such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, El Niño–Southern Oscillation and equatorial waves. However, numerical weather prediction and climate models typically suffer from considerable biases in simulating the diurnal convection and its propagation, hence there is a need to improve our understanding of the underlying physical mechanisms of these phenomena.While the nocturnal offshore propagation of convection is often thought to be forced by gravity waves triggered by land-based diurnal convection, alternative hypothesized mechanisms exist in the literature, related to the propagation of the offshore land breeze and cold pools. Using convection-permitting simulations of selected case studies of convection propagating offshore from Sumatra, we find a squall line propagating overnight due to low-level convergence caused by the land breeze and environmental winds. This is reinforced by cold pools, which we diagnose using model tracers. However, gravity waves also play a role, triggering localized (non-organized) convection which does not itself propagate, but can appear as propagation along wave trajectories when compositing the diurnal cycle over many days.The investigation is extended to other coastlines in the Maritime Continent, using convection-permitting simulations for 900 days during boreal winters, to demonstrate broader evidence for these physical mechanisms; to understand why the offshore propagation occurs on some days but not others; and to show how the strength, timing and causes of offshore propagation vary for different Maritime Continent islands, due to variations in the large-scale winds, orography and the topography of coastlines.
Programming as part of risk and emergency governance
Authors: iacovone giovanna
Published: February 2023

Administration appropriateness within the government of risk and emergency, and hence in its full application of precautionary model requires a preliminary thought about the precaution and prevention criteria that play a fundamental role according to a complementary relational dynamic that presupposes a coordination between parties, including private ones, especially in order to gain an adequate acquisition of essential scientific and technical knowledge that is an indefectible prerequisite for the preparation of measures and procedures adequate with respect to the purpose. There are two profiles involved in this theme, namely one of a general type, relating precisely to the approach one has with regards and weighting of risk, and yet quite of a punctual and operational nature relating to the taking of the single precautionary measure and related relationship between technique and law and the quest, on the part of the latter, for a datum of certainty that the former often fails to offer. In this regard, it seems interesting to note that a very clear message comes from Europe when it states that it is generally recognized that, in some cases, scientific risk evaluation alone cannot provide all the necessary information on which a risk management decision should be based, and that it is legitimate to consider other relevant factors, including social, economic, traditional, ethical, and environmental aspects. A vision of the exceptional event that in the correct assessment of the dimension of risk could not disregard the consideration of the moments prior to its occurrence, that is, in consideration of a flexible programmatic and regulatory template capable of building a fully functional institutional and infrastructural system that would make it possible to guarantee the management of the consequences of the occurrence of the exceptional event with the parameters and guarantees of ordinariness, avoiding the encroachment, or rather the abuse, of exceptional instruments. The paper will focus on the need to adopt models of programming and planning based on the application of a genuine strategic method that, starting from the configuration of cognitive frameworks capable of making in-depth risk prospecting, orient and direct decisions and actions to the pursuit of prevention objectives, providing mechanisms for detecting the impacts of spatial choices and for monitoring and evaluation in order to move away from emergency crisis containment objectives and toward a structural, systemic and long-term approach to vulnerabilities that focuses on forecasting, prevention and preparedness
Elemental characterization of PM2.5 at an urban traffic site in Central Europe
Authors: Windell Laurence , Pokorna Petra , Ondracek Jakub , Schwarz Jaroslav , Lhotka Radek , Zdimal Vladimir
Published: February 2023

Metal content in traffic emissions is often overlooked during regulation and policy making. Exhaust and non-exhaust traffic emissions, including tire, brake wear and re-suspended dust, contribute greatly to particulate matter and pose significant health effects to humans in urban areas (Johansson et al., 2009). The current lack of strict regulations on these metal emissions draws attention to the need for controls and monitoring, as reflected in the recent Euro 7 standards proposal for research on traffic emissions. This work aims to quantify metal emissions from traffic at an urban traffic site in Prague, Czech Republic, identify key tracers of emissions, and investigate exhaust and non-exhaust emissions observable in fine particulate matter (PM2.5). This project signifies the first high-time resolution metal analysis in Prague.Two one-month long measurement campaigns were conducted from February to March and November to December 2020 at an urban traffic site in Prague. Elemental data were obtained from the Xact625i Ambient Metals Monitor (analytical method nondestructive energy dispersive X-ray fluorescence – EDXRF) equipped with a PM2.5 head at a two-hour time resolution. Enrichment factors were calculated, and correlations of key tracers (e.g. Cu, Ba, Zn, Mn) were identified. Source apportionment will be carried out using Positive Matrix Factorization (US EPA PMF 5.0) as well as a human risk assessment for potentially carcinogenic elements. Metallic elemental concentrations were observed in decreasing order: Fe > Zn > Cu > Ti > Mn > Ba > Cr > As > Cd > Ni. The most abundant metal, Fe, was found in the range of 10 – 2933 ng/m3, followed by Zn (1 – 144 ng/m3), Cu (1 – 104 ng/m3), Ba (0.1 – 41 ng/m3) and Cr (0.2 – 16 ng/m3). Enrichment factors of Cr, Mn, Cu and Zn were found to be up to 113, 71, 1937 and 1066, respectively.Acknowledgement:This conference contribution was supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic under grants ACTRIS-CZ LM2018122,  ACTRIS-CZ RI (CZ.02.1 .01 / 0.0 / 0.0 / 16_013 / 0001315) and LTAUSA19006.References:JOHANSSON, C., NORMAN, M. & BURMAN, L. 2009. Road traffic emission factors for heavy metals. Atmospheric Environment - ATMOS ENVIRON, 43, 4681-4688. 
Subseasonal prediction of the July 2021 extreme rainfall event over Henan China in S2S forecasting systems
Authors: Yan Yuhan , Zhu Congwen , Liu Boqi
Published: February 2023

Unprecedented heavy rainfall reaches the warming Earth more frequently, creating the need for effective risk-warning alerts that utilize subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting to integrate information from nowcasting, weather, and seasonal predictions. A record-breaking flooding event occurred in Zhengzhou, Henan Province of China during 17–23 July 2021, causing 398 total of deaths and vast economic losses.A number of studies have shown this super severe heavy flooding occurred under the background of multiscale circulation interactions and the impacts of remote tropical cyclones. Here, we evaluated the predictability of this extreme rainfall event and the impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) using subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) operational models. Most S2S models can reasonably predict the wet-in-north and dry-in-south monthly rainfall pattern over China in July. Only four models captured the location, probability, and sudden intensification of the Zhengzhou rainfall extremes in advance of one week, largely due to their reasonable prediction of the variability of the western North Pacific subtropical high in mid-latitudes. Although the chance of exceeding the new record daily rainfall is only approx. 0.7% in mid-late July, they provide a high probability of this heavy weekly rainfall one week in advance. However, the S2S models still underestimated the super extremeness of this event. The prediction discrepancies came from the poor predictability of Typhoon IN-FA and its impact on the daily evolution of the extreme rainfall event, even within a few days forecast lead. Compared with the observation, the prediction bias of tropical disturbance changed the environmental monsoon airflow to induce the earlier warning of rainfall extremes prior to the formation of IN-FA. After the formation of IN-FA, the prediction bias of the typhoon’s moving speed distorted the typhoon location, which incorrectly predicted the moisture convergence center and underestimated their remote impacts on this heavy rainfall event. Future research should improve our awareness of the challenges that remain in the S2S forecasts.
Design Flood Estimation based on Synthetic Unit Hydrograph Method for an Indian catchment
Authors: Lall Rajat , Chavan Sagar
Published: February 2023

Design flood estimation is necessary for the effective planning and management of various hydrologicstructures such as dams. Mostly these structures are located in remote locations where observedstreamflow data is seldom available. There is a need to develop effective strategies to predict reliableestimates of design flood at ungauged locations. The concept of Synthetic Unit Hydrograph (e.g.,Snyder’s method, Soil Conservation Service method, Taylor and Schwarz method, Mitchell’s method,etc.) that considers the use of catchment descriptors related to stream network and topography inpredicting the design flood estimates at ungauged locations is being widely used. The Central WaterCommission (CWC) method was specifically developed for predicting reliable estimates of designfloods at the ungauged locations in India. In the present study, we have estimated the design floodestimate for Swan river which is a tributary of Satluj River in India located in upper Indo-Gangaplains. Design flood estimates are obtained corresponding to a rainfall input having return periods of100 years. In addition, physical upper bound of precipitation i.e. probable maximum precipitation isalso considered for estimating the probable maximum flood (PMF) for the catchment. The designflood corresponding to 100-year return period rainfall is found to be 2537 cumecs while the PMF isobserved to be about 7863 cumecs. Further, a comparative study between the CWC method-baseddesign flood estimate and design flood estimates based on Snyder’s method, Soil ConservationService method, Taylor and Schwarz method, and Mitchell’s method are performed. These estimates ofdesign flood can be used to plan river training works on Swan river.
Update of the Italian National Landslide Inventory Map by exploiting Sentinel-1 P-SBAS data
Authors: Confuorto Pierluigi , Casagli Nicola , Casu Francesco , De Luca Claudio , Del Soldato Matteo , Festa Davide , Lanari Riccardo , Onorato Giovanni , Raspini Federico
Published: February 2023

Landslide inventory maps are fundamental tools for territorial planning, recording the location, the state of activity and the type of mass movement that affects an area (Guzzetti et al., 2012). In the last decades, the satellite Remote Sensing has represented one of the most useful techniques for studying landslides with its capability to detect large portions (km-scale) of the Earth surface: in this sense, DInSAR (Differential Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar) data are capable of retrieving surface displacements with centimeter to millimeter accuracy. The launch of Sentinel-1 (S1) satellites and the flourishing of fully automatic processing chains has encouraged the development of national scale monitoring service for the study of natural and anthropogenic hazards. Accordingly, the Parallel Small Baseline Subset (P-SBAS) processing chain, in the framework of an Operative Agreement with the Italian Ministry of Economic Development (MiSE) aimed at generating the displacement time-series and corresponding velocity maps of the entire Italian territory, has significantly boosted the systematic update of the landslide state of activity.In this work, the Italian national database of landslides (IFFI landslide inventory) has been updated up to 2018 by exploiting national scale P-SBAS S1 analysis. In particular, the past landslide state of activity, which was obtained by exploiting the Envisat data (2003-2010 temporal range), has been compared with the one retrieved with P-SBAS S1 results (2014-2018 temporal range). With this comparative analysis, more than 56,000 landslides have been identified. The 74% of the studied landslides has been classified as dormant, having annual average velocity (projected along the slope direction) <7 mm/year (considering a value of two times the standard deviation) while the 26% has been considered as active (mean velocity >7 mm/year). In addition, a landslide reliability matrix was introduced to assess the quality of the new updated inventory, by using the point density and the standard deviation of the mean Vslope value of each considered landslide. Finally, the 2D horizontal (along the E-W direction) and vertical components of the MPs have been computed, aiming at the characterization of each landslide's movement direction and magnitude. The obtained results show the heterogeneity and the complexity of the Italian territory, with major differences among each region and between the Alpine and Apennine sectors. The work demonstrates that nation-wide monitoring service Sentinel-1 DInSAR data, such as those generated by the P-SBAS method, can be very useful to systematically update landslide inventories, providing significant support to risk reduction practices.
Shear wave velocity and attenuation tomography acquired from seismic ambient noise data analysis in a complex collisional area at the edge of the East European Craton
Authors: Borleanu Felix , Petrescu Laura , Magrini Fabrizio , De Siena Luca
Published: February 2023

The collisional area between the ALCAPA microplate and East European Craton across the Carpathian Orogen, is one of the most intriguing geological areas in Europe.  Here, a variety of tectonic processes are occurring simultaneously, including extensional basins, oceanic subduction, post-collisional volcanism, and active crustal deformation due to the push of the Adria plate or the pull of the actively detaching Vrancea slab, creating it a distinctive tectonic setting.To explore the lithospheric structure of this collision region, broadband stations operating in the Carpatho-Pannonian area between 2006and 2022 were transformed into virtual sources by cross-correlating simultaneous noise recordings at pairs of stations in the frequency domain and stacking the cross-correlations to obtain one inter-station cross-correlogram per pair (Empirical Green functions). Rayleigh and Love phase velocities, as well as Rayleigh wave attenuation coefficients, were measured and mapped at six discrete periods (5, 10, 15, 25, and 30s) using the latest multiscale seismic imaging algorithms. We used a least-squares inversion approach based on ray theory with adaptive parameterization to map the lateral variations in surface-wave velocity, whereas the attenuation structures were revealed by mapping the frequency-dependent Rayleigh-wave attenuation coefficient.Our results reveal a strong correlation between geology and tomographic images, suggesting a highly heterogeneous crust. An inverse correlation trend between Rayleigh wave phase velocity and attenuation maps was obtained for all period ranges, revealing a contrast between high attenuation features from the Pannonian Basin, including intra-Carpathian areas, and stable platform regions placed in front of the Carpathians. The shallow crust shear velocity model shows low velocities beneath Neogene and Paleozoic sedimentary basins and volcanic regions and high velocities under collisional fronts. In the middle to lower crust (25–30 km), high shear velocities beneath the Pannonian basin are in agreement with the previous findings.
Covariability of Hydrological Cycle Components over coastal regions in southern France
Authors: Jomaa Fatima , Zolina Olga , Shahi Namendra Kumar
Published: February 2023

The hydrological cycle over southern France represents an interplay between highly variable regional precipitation impacting the variability of soil moisture and continental runoff. The moisture sources for regional precipitation are associated with the moisture advection from the Mediterranean Sea (Gulf of Lion). Moreover, the strong coupling between the atmosphere and the land surface processes is affecting all branches of the regional hydrological cycle, being modulated by the complicated orography of the region. Potential intensification of the regional hydrological cycle under the ongoing and projected climate change may result in extreme hydroclimate events. Assessment of their nature and mechanisms is challenging for understanding climate variability over the Mediterranean.

We perform the analysis of long-term daily precipitation time series over southern France (more than 300 rain gauge stations from METEO-FRANCE collection) along with the modern era Reanalyses (ERA5, JRA55) and satellite datasets (TRMM, GPCP, and PERSIANN CDR) over the period from 1979-2014. Diagnostics include estimates of linear trends and interannual variability in precipitation totals, number of wet days, precipitation intensity and different measures of precipitation extremes. Further we quantify the differences in precipitation variability patterns across different data products and demonstrate their strengths and weaknesses. We also examined regional responses of soil moisture to precipitation of different intensities using data from the GLEAM-GLDAS dataset and 14 SMOSANIA stations. Finally, we analyse the representation of the regional hydrological cycle in historical simulations with regional (Euro-CORDEX) and global (CMIP6) climate models. This allows for establishing a statistical links between precipitation, soil moisture, and continental runoff and for quantifying the role of regional atmospheric circulation and moisture advection in forming multidecadal changes in the regional hydrological cycle.