MODELLING THE QUALITY AND PRODUCTION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCTS WITH MATLAB
Authors:   Perm National Research Polytechnic University, Berezniki branch, Zatonskiy Andrey , Tugashova Larisa ,   Almetyevsk State Oil Institute
Published: January 2022

The problem of control of indicators of quality of oil products on technological installations is considered. The review of methods of quality control of oil products is carried out, models for forecasting of temperatures of the beginning and the end of boiling of light oil products on oil refineries are considered. Mathematical models of indicators of quality of light oil products (temperatures of the beginning and the end of boiling) in the form of autoregressive models with external factors are received. The factors are the measured technological parameters of the refinery: temperature, flow, pressure. Models of such a structure can be used to predict the quality of light petroleum products in oil refineries. The application of clustering methods for the analysis of the range and production of petroleum products in the Federal districts is proposed. Hierarchical and iterative methods of cluster analysis are briefly described. An example of the application of cluster analysis methods for the evaluation of production and assortment is given. The article studies the task of monitoring the quality of petroleum products at process units. Review of controlling methods quality of mineral oil has been performed, models for forecast temperatures of starting and ending boiling of light oil products at refineries have been considered. Mathematical models of indicators quality of light oil products (temperatures of starting and ending boiling) in the form of autoregressive models with external factors have been obtained. Factors are measured technological parameters of oil refinery including: temperature, consumption, pressure. Models of a similar structure can be applied to forecasting quality indicators of light oil product at refineries. The application of clustering methods have been proposed for analyzing the range and production of petroleum products by federal districts. Iterative and hierarchical cluster analysis methods are briefly described. An example of application of cluster analysis methods to assess the production and range of petroleum products in federal districts over 2 years is given. Research results have been conducted using the MATLAB software package are presented. The obtained results can be used in the analysis of the range of petroleum products of primary and destructive refining within large territorial units. The possibility of forecasting the production of petroleum products using multiplicative models has been considered. Models with different seasonal components and trend types have been proposed. The stages of building a mathematical model have been given. According to statistical data on the development of motor gasoline over 5 years, mathematical models of a time series have been built using the example of the Russian Federation. The quality of modeling has been assessed using the obtained models according to the average relative error. According to the obtained model of production of automobile gasoline, a post-forecast has been built with a forecasting horizon of 1 year. The average relative error of post-prognosis of the Russian Federation does not exceed 5 %, in federal districts – 12 %. Models can be used to predict the production of light petroleum products in the federal districts of the Russian Federation.