Strategic implications for the Korean Peninsula of the U.S. and China’s military reinforcement and military readiness surrounding the Taiwan Strait
Authors:   Korea Research Institute for Strategy, Kim Duk-ki 
Published: February 2025

The purpose of this paper is to derive the strategic implications for the Korean Peninsula of the U.S.-China military reinforcement and military readiness surrounding the Taiwan Strait. This paper derived the following. First, the United States and China will continue to strengthen their military readiness surrounding the Taiwan Strait along with competition to increase military power. In particular, Washington is strengthening its military cooperation with allies and partners while also strengthening forward bases that can keep China in denial in the East and South China Seas. On the other hand, Beijing is satisfied with securing the Ream naval base in Cambodia amid a lack of allies and partner countries in the region.
Second, based on the Indo-Pacific strategy, the United States will strengthen its lattice-like security system through cooperation with allies and partner countries to block China's expansion of influence in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. In particular, the additional four bases on Luzon Island in the Philippines will provide strategic flexibility for U.S. forces to quickly intervene in an emergency in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea.
Third, while Beijing continues its power competition with Washington, it will continue to threaten Taiwan, such as invading Taiwan’s ADIZ, with its superior military power compared to Taiwan. In addition, China will continue to strengthen its presence in the Taiwan Strait and strengthen its influence in the South China Sea through the forward deployment of SSBNs and other forces. China is also strengthening its maritime A2/AD capabilities, including anti-ship ballistic missiles(ASBMs), which are necessary for the US military’s access and area denial within the 1st and 2nd Island Chain.
Fourth, Taiwan will strengthen its relationship with the United States to deny China’s military influence, as it has a military power that is inferior to that of China and will make efforts to not only introduce necessary weapons from the United States but also strengthen its military power, such as submarines. Taiwan is also strengthening its ability to attack mainland China with its ballistic missiles.
On balance, based on the lessons learned from China’s blockade of the Taiwan Strait in August 2022, Japan is strengthening its defense capabilities in the Southwest Islands to protect the Southwestern Islands, including Yonaguni Island, and to provide prompt support in the event of an emergency in the Taiwan Strait. In addition, Japan is strengthening its infrastructure and capabilities, including the introduction of long-range attack weapons such as Tomahawk from the United States and the construction of an F-35B deployment base, where the United States can project/operate military power in the Taiwan Strait in case of emergency.
In particular, the intensifying arms race between the U.S., China, Japan, and Taiwan over the Taiwan Strait, along with the recent restoration of the alliance between North Korea and Russia, has the following strategic implications for the Korean peninsula. First, recently, U.S. allies and partner countries have raised questions about whether Washington can manage two conflicts in Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula, and the intervention of U.S. troops in Korea during the Taiwan crisis is increasing. Second, if a limited military conflict occurs in the Taiwan Strait, the Republic of Korea must be able to respond flexibly. Third, if an armed conflict between China and Taiwan escalates with the intervention of the U.S., Seoul must make a strategic decision to cooperate militarily with the U.S. at an appropriate level. Lastly, South Korea and the United States must also prepare for the possibility of North Korea’s military provocation to block the concentration of U.S. military forces when China threatens Taiwan with its military forces.