A Machine Learning–Based Model to Predict Acute Traumatic Coagulopathy in Trauma Patients Upon Emergency Hospitalization
Authors: Li Kaiyuan , Wu Huitao , Pan Fei , Chen Li , Feng Cong , Liu Yihao , Hui Hui , Cai Xiaoyu , Che Hebin , Ma Yulong , Li Tanshi 
Published: January 2020

Acute traumatic coagulopathy (ATC) is an extremely common but silent murderer; this condition presents early after trauma and impacts approximately 30% of severely injured patients who are admitted to emergency departments (EDs). Given that conventional coagulation indicators usually require more than 1 hour after admission to yield results—a limitation that frequently prevents the ability for clinicians to make appropriate interventions during the optimal therapeutic window—it is clearly of vital importance to develop prediction models that can rapidly identify ATC; such models would also facilitate ancillary resource management and clinical decision support. Using the critical care Emergency Rescue Database and further collected data in ED, a total of 1385 patients were analyzed and cases with initial international normalized ratio (INR) values >1.5 upon admission to the ED met the defined diagnostic criteria for ATC; nontraumatic conditions with potentially disordered coagulation systems were excluded. A total of 818 individuals were collected from Emergency Rescue Database as derivation cohorts, then were split 7:3 into training and test data sets. A Pearson correlation matrix was used to initially identify likely key clinical features associated with ATC, and analysis of data distributions was undertaken prior to the selection of suitable modeling tools. Both machine learning (random forest) and traditional logistic regression were deployed for prediction modeling of ATC. After the model was built, another 587 patients were further collected in ED as validation cohorts. The ATC prediction models incorporated red blood cell count, Shock Index, base excess, lactate, diastolic blood pressure, and potential of hydrogen. Of 818 trauma patients filtered from the database, 747 (91.3%) patients did not present ATC (INR ≤ 1.5) and 71 (8.7%) patients had ATC (INR > 1.5) upon admission to the ED. Compared to the logistic regression model, the model based on the random forest algorithm showed better accuracy (94.0%, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.922-0.954 to 93.5%, 95% CI: 0.916-0.95), precision (93.3%, 95% CI: 0.914-0.948 to 93.1%, 95% CI: 0.912-0.946), F1 score (93.4%, 95% CI: 0.915-0.949 to 92%, 95% CI: 0.9-0.937), and recall score (94.0%, 95% CI: 0.922-0.954 to 93.5%, 95% CI: 0.916-0.95) but yielded lower area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AU-ROC) (0.810, 95% CI: 0.673-0.918 to 0.849, 95% CI: 0.732-0.944) for predicting ATC in the trauma patients. The result is similar in the validation cohort. The values for classification accuracy, precision, F1 score, and recall score of random forest model were 0.916, 0.907, 0.901, and 0.917, while the AU-ROC was 0.830. The values for classification accuracy, precision, F1 score, and recall score of logistic regression model were 0.905, 0.887, 0.883, and 0.905, while the AU-ROC was 0.858. We developed and validated a prediction model based on objective and rapidly accessible clinical data that very confidently identify trauma patients at risk for ATC upon their arrival to the ED. Beyond highlighting the value of ED initial laboratory tests and vital signs when used in combination with data analysis and modeling, our study illustrates a practical method that should greatly facilitates both warning and guided target intervention for ATC.