bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Radial Evolution of Non-Maxwellian Solar Wind Electrons Derived From Quasi-Thermal Noise Spectroscopy: Parker Solar Probe Observation
Authors: Zheng Xianming , Martinović Mihailo M. , Liu Kaijun , Pierrard Viviane , Liu Mingzhe , Klein Kristopher , Ember Winry , Abraham Joel B.
Published: March 2024

Precise measurement of the electron temperature and their non-thermal characteristics in the solar wind is essential for understanding the energy transport in the solar wind plasma. The present study applies the quasi-thermal noise (QTN) spectroscopy fitting method to analyze the QTN measurements from the Parker Solar Probe FIELDS radio instrument during the antenna-unbiased intervals of Encounters 2 to 13. The solar wind electrons are assumed to follow kappa velocity distributions in our QTN analysis and the fitting yields the relevant electron parameters across the heliocentric distance (r) from 12 to 76 solar radii. The results obtained indicate that the electron density scales as n_e  ∝ r^(-2.09±0.05), the electron temperature varies as T_kappa   ∝ r^(-0.65~-0.67), and the kappa index reveals three distinct segments of variations with r. Additionally, a statistical analysis of the solar wind energy flux demonstrates a power-law relation with r, w_total  ∝ r^(-1.92~-1.96). These findings contribute valuable information to the understanding of the energy transport dynamics in the solar wind.
Classification of intracontinental (intraplate) orogeny based on tectonics and its evolution
Authors: Wang Yu , Liu Songnan , Gong Mo
Published: March 2024

Since last 1960’s, the plate tectonics has been played a main role for the study on the Earth’s evolution and global tectonics, but mostly focused on the global divergence and convergence, and focused on the continental margin—subduction and collision. However, the plate tectonics cannot resolve all of the tectonic evolution and reconstruction of the global evolution, like non-rigid blocks and continental lithospheric deformation; and mountain building within the continent; large scales deformation and tectonics in the continental interiors and so on. Thus, “Intracontinental Tectonics and Orogeny” has been studied. Globally, there are lots of tectonics or deformation types have been found and the intracontinental mountain building and the orogeneses have been classified, like types of the Alice Spring in Australia, the Tianshan in Asia and the Pyrenees in Europe. They are with different orogenic frameworks including deformation, magmatism, sedimentation and metamorphism. Also, they have formed in different tectonic backgrounds, such as on the reworking orogenic belt, intracontinental rift-basin deformation, and multiple-stage orogeny between the continental blocks, and linkages to plate tectonics and non-plate tectonics in mechanism and dynamics.  
A water balance approach for estimating groundwater recharge rates through high-resolution satellite soil moisture
Authors: Dari Jacopo , Filippucci Paolo , Brocca Luca , Morbidelli Renato , Saltalippi Carla , Flammini Alessia
Published: March 2024

Groundwater represents a massive portion of the total freshwater available. It is the primary source of water for more than two billion people worldwide and an essential source for agriculture in many areas of the world. It is well known that water resources are expected to face an ever-increasing stress during the upcoming decades because of the combined effects of human exploitation and climate changes, and groundwater is not an exception. Recently, the monitoring of hydrological fluxes through approaches based on the closure of the water cycle budget has been boosted by the availability of multi-source satellite data sets. Under this perspective, this study aims at presenting a novel approach for estimating groundwater recharge rates from satellite surface soil moisture observations through a water balance approach. In order to do this, data from groundwater monitoring networks over selected pilot areas in central Italy have been collected for validation purposes. Several remotely sensed soil moisture products have been evaluated, limiting the selection to latest high-resolution (1 km) data sets, namely an experimental product derived by SMAP (Soil Moisture Active Passive) and developed by Planet Labs, the operational Sentinel-1 soil moisture data delivered by the Copernicus Global Land Service (CGLS) and a newer Sentinel-1 retrieval based on a first-order radiative transfer model (RT1). Preliminary results show a general good agreement between observed and satellite-derived recharge periods, with highest quantitative agreements found for stations monitoring shallower aquifers. Even though further investigation is required, the proposed framework opens the interesting perspective of an innovative hydrological application of satellite soil moisture data and, if successful, it can be potentially upscaled to different targets (i.e., from the regional to the country scale).
Ice base slope effects on the turbulent ice shelf-ocean boundary current
Authors: Anselin Josephine , Holland Paul , Taylor John , Jenkins Adrian
Published: March 2024

The majority of Antarctica’s contribution to sea level rise can be attributed to changes in ocean-driven melting at the base of ice shelves. Turbulent ocean currents and melting are strongest where the ice base is steeply sloped, but few studies have systematically examined this effect. Here we use 3-D, turbulence-permitting large-eddy simulations (LES) of an idealised ice shelf-ocean boundary current to examine how variations in ice base slope influence ocean mixing and ice melting. The range of simulated slope angles is appropriate to the grounding zone of small Antarctic ice shelves and to the flanks of relatively wide ice base channels, with far-field ocean conditions representative of warm-water ice shelf cavities. Within this parameter space, we derive formulations for the friction velocity, thermal forcing, and melt rate in terms of total melt-induced buoyancy input and ice base slope. This theory predicts that melt rate varies like the square root of slope, which is consistent with the LES results and differs from a previously proposed linear trend. With the caveat that further simulations with an expanded range of basal slope angles and ocean conditions would be necessary to evaluate the validity of our conclusions across the full Antarctic ice base slope parameter space, the derived scalings provide a potential framework for incorporating slope-dependence into parameterisations of mixing and melting at the base of ice shelves.
FLOODGAMA: the new INUNGAMA. Beyond a flood events database for Catalonia
Authors: Llasat-Botija Montserrat , Llasat Maria Carmen , Marinelli Dimitri , Marcos Raül , Guzzon Carlo , Díaz Albert
Published: March 2024

Floods represent a complex natural hazard, influenced not only by meteorological factors but also by geophysical aspects such as terrain topography, social factors such as the value of exposed assets, and cultural factors like risk awareness. For this reason, the study of these phenomena requires a holistic approach. This requires the correct organization of the information. In addition, given that the information comes from different sources, the traceability of the data must also be contrasted and preserved in order to guarantee its quality and robustness. Databases make it possible to conserve and document historical information, to analyze it and to support smart flood risk management.With this objective in mind, in 2000 the GAMA team developed the INUNGAMA flood database, following the example of other natural hazards databases. This communication will present the new version of this database, FLOODGAMA, and the main results of its analysis. FLOODGAMA contains information on 456 flood events that affected Catalonia (NE of Spain), between 1900 and 2020, which have caused 1,253 casualties. The events are classified according to the impacts. It includes linked tables with information on event dates, descriptions, fatalities, economic damages, affected municipalities, recorded rainfall and recorded flow. Other tables contain historical marks, codifications and the geographical information of municipalities, counties, basins and rivers, as well as meteorological stations. Its structure has been simplified and standardized with Python and migrated to PostgreSQL (PostGIS) from an ACCESS format. The new database allows for more general and straightforward analysis, introduces GIS tool compatibility, and simplifies the addition of new data and new data sources. This last point has been one of the key points in this transformation as it will provide the database with the flexibility to respond to the challenges posed by the digital transformation that is currently taking place and as a tool for the improvement of adaptation.The contribution shows the structure of this flood database and the results obtained after its analysis that allows the characterization of flood events in Catalonia.This research has been done in the framework of the C3Riskmed project, Grant PID2020-113638RB-C22 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and Flood2Now project, Grant PLEC2022-009403 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and by the European Union Next Generation EU/PRTR.
Towards net-zero: assessing the carbon storage potential of onshore saline aquifers in Brazil
Authors: B. Amarante Francyne , Kuchle Juliano , B. Haag Mauricio
Published: March 2024

Global warming poses a major challenge that humanity will face during the 21st century, requiring a significant reduction in anthropogenic CO2 emissions to mitigate the escalating global temperature. Several governments worldwide, including Brazil, have committed to achieving net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050, which will be impossible without Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage (CCUS) deployment. Ranked 12th globally in CO2 emissions (and 1st in South America), Brazil is in the early stages of studying CCUS. At present, CCUS efforts in the country primarily revolve around enhanced oil recovery, with limited exploration of CO2 injection in alternative geological settings. A total of 31 sedimentary basins span Brazilian territory, encompassing an area of approximately 6.4 million km2, 75% of which is situated onshore. The potential for CO2 storage in saline aquifers is gaining attention globally, proving a successful and effective approach in various sites. In this work we combine the available surface (geological maps, roads, and gas pipelines) and subsurface data (seismic lines and borehole data) to assess the logistics and feasibility of utilizing saline formations in onshore intracratonic basins as CO2 sinks, aiming to enable Brazil to reach net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050. Previous studies indicate that the Parnaíba, São Francisco, Amazonas, and Paraná basins present saline formations with favorable characteristics for CO2 injection, such as adequate depths, porosity, and permeability. Building upon prior research, we introduce the onshore portion of Espírito Santo Basin to the list of potential sinks, where the target saline aquifer is the pre-salt Mucuri Formation. Results show that greenhouse gases emissions from industrial processes are notably higher in the southeast region of Brazil. Within this region, two formations exhibit considerable potential for carbon sequestration in saline aquifers: (i) the Mucuri Formation, located in the onshore Espírito Santo Basin, reaching 350 m of thickness and shallowest depths of about 950 m, and (ii) the Rio Bonito Formation, in the proximities of the São Paulo state, with over 100 m of thickness and shallowest depths of about 650 m. For large-scale projects, CO2 transport in the region can be accomplished using the available infrastructure and the available gas pipelines, while smaller-scale research projects can utilize trucks, rail, and ships. Brazil's untapped potential for CCUS presents a unique funding opportunity from the private sector, marking a crucial step toward sustainable and impactful climate action.
Rapid lateral transport of fresh dissolved organic matter to the deep ocean in the NE Atlantic
Authors: Wei Bingbing , Seidel Michael , Mollenhauer Gesine , Grotheer Hendrik , Wendt Jenny , Dittmar Thorsten , Holtappels Moritz
Published: March 2024

Deepwater formation in the North Atlantic Ocean is a major gateway for dissolved organic matter (DOM) transport into the deep ocean. Despite focusing on vertical mixing, lateral transport of DOM from productive shelf regions is underexplored. Previous research suggested substantial offshore DOM transport on the Irish and Hebrides Margin via the bottom Ekman Drain. Our in-depth bottom water DOM analyses of carbon isotopes in combination with ultrahigh-resolution mass spectrometry (FT-ICR-MS) indicated that downwelling in this region leads to higher DOM concentrations (by 7–11 μM) and younger radiocarbon ages (by 190–330 yrs) compared to DOM of the central Northeast Atlantic at similar depths. During downslope transport, conservative mixing shapes the molecular composition of recalcitrant DOM, while minor particulate organic matter degradation contributes to producing less-refractory DOM with terrigenous signals. Consequently, the bottom Ekman transport emerges as a rapid and efficient channel for transporting fresh DOM into the deep North Atlantic Ocean, acting as a crucial carbon sink for atmospheric CO2.
Controls on glacial divide migration in Southern Canadian Rocky Mountain fold and thrust belt
Authors: Yadav Himani , Schoenbohm Lindsay
Published: March 2024

The present-day landscape of Southern Canadian Rocky Mountains is a product of the interaction among tectonics, lithologic resistance, and surface processes including erosion by rivers and glaciers. Rivers have adjusted to the orogeny-associated structures, regional tectonic uplift and growing terrain slope, and post-orogenic, extensive glaciation by modifying their channel profile and planform geometry. Understanding the relationship between fluvial and glacial erosion is crucial, as not only does it reflect the landscape’s sensitivity to the climate change, but also because it can indicate whether glacier-driven stream piracy (and basin reorganization) can cause significant downstream discharge alterations. The mechanisms of glacial headwall erosion, drainage divide migration, and resulting stream capture, still form a considerable research gap in landscape evolution studies. The Canadian Rockies provide an excellent opportunity for understanding the progression of subglacial channel network geometry and related basin reorganization. This study aims to evaluate glacial headwall erosion processes in glaciated headwaters through progressive divide lowering, lateral migration, and stream capture. We remotely analyze topographic features, corroborating them in the field. We completed the morphometric investigation using the MATLAB based TopoToolbox, Topographic Analysis Kit, and a customized DivideMigration function. We observe two unique signatures of glacial divide migration in the Canadian Rockies: (1) breached drainage divides that suggest lateral erosion by glaciated headwaters directed along weak lithologies and (2) the presence of low relief, high elevation divides without headwall preservation, possibly indicating periods of paleo-drainage capture during glaciation. Our preliminary results have implications for the role of glacial erosion in reshaping the landscape with respect to the structure, lithology, and climate.  
Diminished contribution of spring phenology to early-season carbon uptake in a changing climate
Authors: Liu Zunchi , Fu Yongshuo
Published: March 2024

Climatic warming advances the start of the growing season (SOS) and enhances terrestrial gross primary productivity (GPP). The consequences of this earlier SOS on the daily rate of GPP (GPPrate) and total GPP (GPPtotal) during the early growing season (EGS), however, are poorly understood.We used data for solar-induced chlorophyll fluorescence and carbon flux across the Northern Hemisphere to determine that an earlier SOS extended EGS, i.e. the period from SOS to the peak of the growing season, which increased GPPtotal during this extended period. The earlier SOS, however, decreased GPPrate during EGS due to reduced mean temperature and soil-water content. The extended EGS increased GPPtotal, but the decrease in GPPrate restricted these increases by ~25% and was more pronounced in arid (~40% reduction) than humid (~10%) areas. The diminished contribution of an advanced SOS to early-season vegetation carbon uptake suggests that the current increase in carbon uptake in northern ecosystems may be offset by future warming and drought conditions.
Developing a flood image detection model using deep learning algorithms
Authors: Yang Cheng-Lin
Published: March 2024

As the impact of climate change intensifies, the frequency of short-duration heavy rainfall events gradually increases, posing a serious challenge to urban infrastructure and underground drainage systems. Assessing flood-prone areas and disaster extents relies heavily on manual surveys, lacking real-time and effective methodologies. Our study uses Mask R-CNN deep learning and closed-circuit television (CCTV) flood images to develop a real-time and effective flood detection model. The results of our study demonstrate that the proposed flood image recognition model achieves a precision of 60.6%, a recall rate of 92.2%, and an F1 score of 73.1 for the flood category. These results signify the model's exceptional capability of the model in flood detection. Additionally, through on-site measurements of road dimensions and binary matrix-based area estimation, the average error is only 1.6%. This model can be applied effectively and serves as a reference for authorities to promptly determine the occurrence of flooding and the extent of the disaster, thus facilitating the formulation of more effective disaster response measures. The developed model exhibits promising potential for real-time flood detection in urban disaster management, providing a valuable tool for authorities to respond promptly to the dynamic challenges posed by climate change.
Microseism source estimated with three-component broadband seismometer array in Fujian and its adjacent areas
Authors: Zhang Lina , Liu Xianglong
Published: March 2024

Ambient noise tomography has been widely applied, but the distribution of noise sources has an important impact on its accuracy, so it is necessary to carry out related studies. In this paper, continuous records from 94 broadband seismic stations in Fujian and its adjacent area in 2016 were used, and a three-component record polarization analysis method was used to analyze back-azimuth of microseism in the frequency ranges of 0.085-0.2Hz and 0.2-0.5Hz in this region, and its seasonal changes were analyzed. It was found that the seasonal variation of noise source in the frequency range of 0.085-0.2Hz was large, with winter noise mainly coming from Alaska, and summer and autumn noise mainly coming from the southern Indian Ocean and the area near Antarctica. The seasonal variation of noise source direction in the frequency range of 0.2-0.5Hz was small, mainly from the southeast, indicating that its main source may be the coastal waters of Southeast China. It was found in the study that there were significant deviations in some station directions, which were caused by the 180° fuzziness problem of the polarization analysis method. Combining with the asymmetry of the noise cross-correlation function, and the results of array clustering analysis during Typhoon Moranti's passage, it was verified.
Methane concentration in the discharge water and ambient air near the outlet of Glaciers, Alaska Range, 2022-2023
Authors: Konya Keiko , Iwahana Go , Morishita Tomoaki , Uetake Jun , Wakita Masahide , Sato Yota , Ayukawa Kazuhiro , Mikami Yasuhide , Sueyoshi Tetsuo
Published: March 2024

Methane release is considered to be from human activities, Arctic Ocean, and the terrestrial regions such as wetland, lakes, geological seeps in the Arctic although glaciers have not been considered a source of methane emissions. A large amount of methane has been observed at the terminus of large glaciers and ice sheet, associated with methane-saturated meltwater runoff. We observed several glaciers in Alaska and found methane emissions from the runoff water of the small mountain glaciers.The observation periods, which was the beginning of the ablation season for the glacier, were June 12-14, 2022, and June 3-9, 2023. We measured methane and CO2 concentrations in ambient air over the water with a portable gas analyzer G4301 (Picarro, Inc.). Dissolved methane concentrations in runoff water were measured using the method of Morishita et al. (2015).The maximum methane concentration in the ambient air near the runoff water was higher than the background level, and the concentration decreased as the gas analyzer moved away from the tunnel. The dissolved methane concentration in runoff water was saturated. These results suggest that the high concentration methane observed in the ambient air near the glacier terminus was released from the runoff water saturated by methane underneath of the glaciers. This study was supported by ArCSII project (JPMXD1420318865).
On Physics and Poetry: Expressions of Universal Experience and Observation - a pursuit of the mutual phase space
Authors: Giordano Marco
Published: March 2024

Physics and poetry are both the expression of universal effort to describe all that is observed and experienced from the perspective of human-centric thought - one expressed in natural language, one symbolically mathematical.  Both strive for elegance and aesthetic in image and concision. We present the conceptual foundations of the similarity of both expressions, and explore constructions of their phase space....or something similar.  We begin with a more formal slide presentation on the meta-concepts involved in each discipline, and progress through their union and intersections. After which we directly transition to an endeavor of spoken word in which we attempt to converge upon an asymptote of justice for each expression, by live reading and oral interpretation of author created material on first person human-geophysical experience.
 
Warm saltwater inflows strengthen oxygen depletion in the western Baltic Sea
Authors: Barghorn Leonie , Meier H. E. Markus , Radtke Hagen , Neumann Thomas
Published: March 2024

The Baltic Sea is one of the coastal seas worldwide that suffer most strongly from hypoxia. With its pronounced haline stratification, the Baltic Sea is naturally prone to oxygen deficiency, but the strong growth of hypoxic and anoxic regions since the middle of the 20th century was mainly driven by eutrophication due to large nutrient inputs from anthropogenic sources. Since the oxygen solubility is lower in warmer water and oxygen consumption rates are higher, increasing water temperatures due to climate change are expected to worsen oxygen conditions in the future. Today, the effects of warming are still considered minor compared to those of the high nutrient loads. However, we show, by analyzing 159-years long hindcast simulations of the Baltic Sea with three different models, that exceptionally high temperatures in certain parts of the western Baltic Sea additionally deteriorated the oxygen conditions during the course of the 20th century on an interannual scale. These high temperatures were not mainly caused by global warming but by a shift in the seasonality of saltwater inflows from the North Sea, namely an increase in warm summer and early autumn inflows and a decrease in colder winter inflows. This we can conclude from comparing the reference simulations with a sensitivity experiment that excludes global warming. Hence, we identify a new driver of hypoxia in the western Baltic Sea.
Signifificant contribution of organics to aerosol liquid water content in winter in Beijing, China
Authors: Jin Xiaoai , Wang Yuying , Wu Tong
Published: March 2024

The aerosol liquid water (ALW) content (ALWC), an important component of atmospheric particles, has a signifificant effect on atmospheric optical properties, visibility and multiphase chemical reactions. In this study, ALWC is determined from aerosol hygroscopic growth factor (GF) and particle number size distribution (PNSD) measurements and is also simulated by ISORROPIA II, a thermodynamic equilibrium model, with measured aerosol chemical composition data taken at an urban site in Beijing from 8 November to 15 December 2017. Rich measurements made during the experiment concerning virtually all aerosol properties allow us not only to derive the ALWC but also to study the contributions by various species for which little has been done in this region. The simulated ALWC including the contribution of organics and the calculated ALWC are highly correlated (coeffificient of determination R2 = 0.92). The ALWC contributed by organics (ALWCOrg) accounts for 30% ± 22% of the total ALWC during the sampling period. These results suggest a signifificant contribution of organics to ALWC, which is rather different from previous studies that showed negligible contributions by organics. Our results also show that ALWC correlates well with the mass concentrations of sulfate, nitrate, and secondary organic aerosols (SOAs)  (R2 = 0.66, 0.56 and 0.60, respectively). We further noted that accumulation mode particles play a key role in determining ALWC, dominating among all the aerosol modes. ALWC is an exponential function of ambient relative humidity (RH), whose strong diurnal variation inflfluence the diurnal variation of ALWC. However, there is a 3 h lag between the extremes of ALWC and RH values, due to the diurnal variations in PNSD and aerosol chemical composition. Finally, a case study reveals that ALWCOrg plays an important role in the formation of secondary aerosols through multiphase reactions at the initial stage of a heavy-haze episode.
Effects of Elevated Ozone Concentrations on Evergreen Shrubs in Delhi, India
Authors: Anand Pratibha , Kota Sri Harsha , Mina Usha
Published: March 2024

Tropospheric ozone (O3), a potent greenhouse gas and secondary air pollutant, stands out as a major photochemical pollutant, posing a considerable threat to plant life. Prolonged exposure to this gas triggers adverse changes in various plant parameters, hindering growth, and hastening senescence. This makes increasing ambient O3 concentrations an urgent environmental concern. An essential aspect of addressing this issue lies in comprehending the mechanisms underlying O3 resistance in plants, particularly for fostering sustainable urban greening in polluted environments. Certain indicative plant parameters, including morphological characteristics, and biochemical and antioxidant capacity, play pivotal roles in regulating the variation in O3 resistance. However, the specific contributions of each trait remain somewhat elusive and understudied. Moreover, O3 resistance exhibits significant variability within and across plant species, influenced by factors such as the timing of O3 exposure and the plant's developmental stage. The present study delves into the nuances of O3 sensitivity among four evergreen shrub species—Bougainvillea glabra, Buxus sempervirens, Duranta goldiana, and Ficus panda—that are commonly chosen for roadside plantations in Delhi. The selected species were exposed to elevated ozone concentrations, in a controlled fashion, in Open-Top Chambers (OTCs) for an entire growing season. The study examined changes in photosynthetic pigments (total chlorophyll, carotenoid), antioxidant capacity (ascorbic acid), and lipid peroxidation. The findings revealed significant discernible impacts of ozone fumigation alongside ambient air concentration. Compared to control samples (ambient air exposure conditions), under elevated ozone treatment, chlorophyll content and total carotenoid levels decreased substantially, while the ascorbic acid content and lipid peroxidation levels increased. Species that underwent the highest decrease in chlorophyll (C) content are the species that experienced the lowest increase in ascorbic acid (AA) levels, and vice versa (i.e., B. sempervirens [C-34.27%, AA+20.83%], D. goldiana [C-25%, AA+35.95%], F. panda [C-23.85%, AA+54.12%], and B. glabra [C-18%, AA+55.27%]). Based on the parametric changes observed in the considered species, it can be concluded that B. glabra is the most appropriate species (followed by F. panda) for systematic urban plantation in areas with high O3 concentrations as it exhibited the highest tolerance. This research contributes valuable insights for selecting suitable plant species in ozone-polluted areas, facilitating environmentally conscious decision-making for the establishment of resilient and sustainable urban green spaces.
Australian Precipitation Extremes over the last Millenia: How do Ephemeral Lake Records Compare Against Climate Models?
Authors: Grunau Sophie , Cohen Tim , McGregor Helen , Ummenhofer Caroline
Published: March 2024

The flooding in Queensland and NSW over the last years has affirmed the impacts that extreme precipitation has on peoples lives and their livelihood. To be better prepared for such extremes in the future we need to know how often and under which climatic circumstances they occur. However, climate models for Australia still involve high uncertainty in predicting the likelihood of precipitation extremes that lead to large flooding events. This is attributed to the limited record of hydro-climatic paleo data across Australia. Though efforts have been made to improve the record of past precipitation extremes, previous studies have focused on high resolution at specific locations rather than a large spacial coverage.Our project tackles this challenge by utilising the strongly link between precipitation and filling events of ephemeral lakes. The paleoenvironmental evidence collected from various ephemeral lakes in key quadrants of the country allows the establishment of a hydro-climatic paleo record on a large spatial scale. A timeframe of the last thousand years permits the comparison of frequency and magnitude to inter-annual variability of precipitation extremes in different regions across Australia. Ultimately, a comparison of the established record against other paleo data and an analysis of global climate simulations will result in an improved understanding of past precipitation extremes and the importance varying climatic drivers have in different regions across Australia.
InSAR Insights into the Massive Himalayan Leo Pargil Landslide
Authors: Aslan Gökhan , de Michele Marcello , Redfield Tim , van-Boeckel Mikis , Hermanns Reginald , Noël François , Dehls John
Published: March 2024

In the dynamic landscape of the northwest Indian Himalayas, the Leo Pargil Landslide stands as a monumental example of slope instability. This study marks the first detection of this giant landslide through Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) techniques. Spanning an impressive 55 km² and mobilizing approximately 25 km³ of rock material towards the Spiti River at a rate of 80 mm/year, it poses significant risks to several villages, towns, and the NH505 highway located atop and along its path.Deep-Seated Gravitational Slope Deformations (DSGSDs), such as the Leo Pargil Landslide, are pivotal in shaping mountainous landscapes. These giant landslides significantly influence topographic evolution, particularly in regions marked by rapid rock uplift in steep terrain. Understanding these processes is crucial, given their geological significance and the natural hazards they pose to communities in tectonically active regions. However, their inherent unpredictability, influenced by factors like geology, geomorphology, climate, and seismic activities, makes evaluating landslide dynamics a challenging task.The Leo Pargil Landslide, bounded by the northeast-trending Leo Pargil Shear Zone (LPSZ) and incorporating several brittle normal faults, is conditioned by at least three geological factors: steep slope terrain, the bedding structure of the rock formation, and deep river incision at the base of the landslide. Our study investigates the factors conditioning the landslide, the driving forces behind it, and its evolution, offering new insights into the underlying mechanisms of failure.In this study, we utilized Sentinel 1A/B satellites, applying Persistent Scatterer (PS) InSAR processing techniques to analyze the active dynamics of the Leo Pargil landslide. By combining InSAR derived velocity field data with the local geology, geomorphological features of the slope and previously published geochronological data we tried to elucidate the possible mechanisms involved in the initiation and development this landslide.The findings underscore the role of dome exhumation as a geomechanical driver of slope dynamics. The transition in stress fields, tectonic and structural influences, and the interplay between erosion, river incision, and monsoon precipitation anomalies are highlighted as significant factors in the landslide's development. This comprehensive understanding is vital for slope stability assessments and risk mitigation strategies in the Himalayan region.In conclusion, the study links geomechanical, geochronological, and geomorphological analyses to unravel the complexities of the Leo Pargil Landslide. It emphasizes the significance of the Leo Pargil Dome, not merely as a backdrop but as an active contributor to landslide dynamics, highlighting the critical need to consider both local and broader tectonic contexts in understanding slope instability
Global Science of Meteorological Tsunamis: From Planetary to Mesoscale Processes (GLOMETS)
Authors: Vilibić Ivica , Dogan Gozde Guney , Dominović Novković Iva , Huan Xun , Jordà Gabriel , Pranić Petra , Tojčić Iva , Villalonga Joan , Yalciner Ahmet Cevdet , Zemunik Selak Petra
Published: March 2024

Meteorological tsunamis - atmospheric ocean waves in the tsunami frequency band - and generally nonseismic sea level oscillations on tsunami timescales attracted a lot of attention in the recent decade due to the global availability of high-resolution sea level and ancillary measurements and advancement of both atmospheric and ocean models. This became even accentuated after the century-level event of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai explosive volcano eruption on 15 January 2022, which created global acoustic-gravity waves in the atmosphere and meteotsunamis in the ocean. In that spirit, the Global Science of Meteorological Tsunamis (GLOMETS) 4-year project has been proposed for funding to the Croatian Science Foundation and launched on New Year’s Eve of 2023 to tackle the following research topics: (1) global meteotsunami hazards from explosive volcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts, (2) meteotsunami hazards at the sub-kilometre scale from both weather- and explosive volcano-induced events, (3) reproducibility of meteotsunami hazard by climate models, for their eventual assessment in the future climate, (4) eventual optimization and improvement of the meteotsunami monitoring, and (5) developing stochastic techniques for meteotsunami uncertainty quantification. To achieve these objectives, state-of-the-art tools will be used, like (1) global quality-checked high-frequency sea level analyses, (2) coupled atmosphere-ocean global and (sub-)kilometre models, (3) climate simulations, reanalyses, and products, and (4) uncertainty quantification techniques and optimal experimental design methods. This presentation will overview state-of-the-art in the quoted topics, with planned work-to-do and research activities, hopefully to initiate fruitful discussions and new research directions and to establish new collaborations around the project.
Modelling the future distribution and biodiversity of European fen habitats under global change 
Authors: Singh Patrícia , Jiménez-Alfaro Borja , Auniņa Liene , Hájková Petra , Ivchenko Tatiana , Jansen Florian , Kolari Tiina , Pawlikowski Paweł , Peterka Tomáš , Petraglia Alessandro , Tahvanainen Teemu , Kozub Łukasz , Hájek Michal
Published: March 2024

Along with the historical decline of fens due to anthropogenic impact, climate change is expected to jeopardise fen biodiversity by reducing their geographic extent and altering species composition. Yet, the impact of climate change on fen distribution and biodiversity in the future remains unclear. We used 27,555 vegetation plots representing eight fen habitat types widely distributed in Europe to compute Ecosystem Distributional Models. For each fen habitat type, we projected their future potential occupancy area and range shift and evaluated the influence of different climate scenarios and groundwater pH on distribution and biodiversity. Our findings could be helpful for the nature protection authorities across Europe to assess conservational and restoration measures to mitigate potential future biodiversity loss in European fen habitats.
Cloud Susceptibility to Aerosols: Comparing Cloud-Appearance vs. Cloud-Controlling Factors Regimes
Authors: Zhu Yannian , Liu Jihu , Wang Minghuai , Rosenfeld Daniel
Published: March 2024

Clouds can be classified into regimes by the cloud appearance or by the cloud meteorological controlling factors. The cloud appearance regimes inherently include adjustments to aerosol effects, such as transitions between closed and open cells. Therefore, aggregation of cloud susceptibilities to aerosols over the cloud-appearance regimes excludes much of the cloud adjustment component of the susceptibilities. In contrast, aggregating susceptibilities over regimes defined by cloud-controlling factors includes the full effects of cloud adjustments. Here we compared the susceptibilities of the two kinds of cloud regimes and demonstrated this effect. Overall, increasing cloud droplet number concentration (Nd) consistently leads to precipitation suppression, higher cloud fraction (CF), and reduced liquid water path (LWP), regardless of how the regime is defined. However, their susceptibilities to Ndaggregated over cloud-appearance regimes are significantly lower than those aggregated over cloud-controlling factors regimes, with lower-tropospheric stability (LTS) serving as an example to define cloud-controlling factors regimes. This underestimation is more pronounced for CF susceptibility, where the susceptibility for cloud appearance regimes is only 1/4 of the susceptibility for cloud controlling regimes. These findings imply that relying solely on cloud-appearance regimes may underestimate the effective radiative forcing produced by cloud adjustment (ERFaci). Nevertheless, the substantial variability in the magnitude of cloud adjustment across appearance regimes at similar LTS also suggests that a single cloud-controlling factor is not sufficient to fully separate cloud regimes to quantify cloud adjustment. Therefore, identifying a comprehensive set of cloud-controlling factors is essential for accurately quantifying cloud adjustments in future studies.
Warming and wetting-driven increases in landscape instability and river sediment loads in High Mountain Asia
Authors: Li Dongfeng , Zhang Ting , Overeem Irina , Kettner Albert , Syvitski Jaia , Bookhagen Bodo , Ni Jinren , Walling Desmond
Published: March 2024

High Mountain Asia, encompassing the Tibetan Plateau and the surrounding high Asian mountains, has been experiencing a warmer and wetter climate since the 1950s. The amplified climate change has resulted in rapid glacier retreat and permafrost degradation that further cause mountain landscape instability associated with frequent cascading hazards including (rock-ice) avalanches, landslides, debris flows, and outburst floods from glacial- and landslide-dammed lakes. Moreover, the mountain erodible landscapes are expanding and greater amounts of sediment are mobilized in both glacierized and permafrost basins. The river sediment loads in High Mountain Asia have been increasing at a rate of 13% per decade since the 1950s and will likely double by 2050 under an extreme climate change scenario. The climate change-driven mountain landscape instability, increases in river sediment loads and changes in seasonal sediment-transport regimes affect water quality, carbon cycle, floods, infrastructure, and livelihoods. Such findings have implications for other high mountain areas and polar regions and we call for a global assessment of the warming and wetting-driven erosion and sediment transport.
The highest gas hydrate volume estimate found in the sediments of the Chilean margin
Authors: Villar-Munoz Lucia , Vargas-Cordero Ivan , Tinivella Umberta , Giustiniani Michela , P. Bento Joaquim , Bangs Nathan , Contreras-Reyes Eduardo
Published: March 2024

Along the Chilean continental margin, where the active Nazca plate subducts under the South American plate, large deposits of gas hydrates trapped in marine sediments can be observed in seismic profiles (from Valparaíso to Patagonia), which may be affected by the increase in deep-water temperature due to climate change. This could trigger a massive release of methane gas into the marine environment and the atmosphere with negative effects on the environment, mainly through dissociation of the hydrates and/or direct migration to the seafloor through faults.In this study, new multichannel seismic data located off Chiloé Island (∼42°S) are presented, and for the first time a BSR parallel to the continental margin (north-south) is analysed. Here, an efficient sediment subduction occurs where the young oceanic Nazca plate (5-25 Ma) subducts beneath the continental plate along Chiloé Island. In addition, an integrated analysis to better understand the hydrological and hydrothermal system in this area included previous geophysical and geological datasets, such as a) bathymetry, b) geothermal gradient calculated from gas hydrate distribution boundaries, and c) thermal conductivities. The results show a continuous and strong BSR along the entire seismic profile MGL1701-27 (approximately 27 km long), where large deformations, fractures and faults occur, favouring the flow of carbon-rich fluids from the depths, which subsequently form the gas hydrate layer. The large amount of gas hydrate present in the marine sediments off the coast of Chiloé Island is impressive. Velocity analysis of seismic profile MGL1701-27 indicates gas hydrate concentration values of up to 25% of the total rock volume, the highest estimates obtained at the Chilean margin. In addition, a peak in the geothermal gradient is related to deep faults that allow the passage of hot fluids from deeper strata to the seafloor.  Finally, a large amount of free gas is estimated beneath the BSR, which enhances its intensity and continuity in the seismic profile.Our results provide valuable information for current and future studies related to climate change (methane storage), hydrothermal circulation, seismicity, gas hydrate stability and fluid venting in this natural laboratory, since Chiloé Island is located at the southern boundary of the rupture zone of the largest earthquake in recorded history (the Mw 9.5 Valdivia earthquake), the implications of which have yet to be fully elucidated.
Ocean Monitoring and Prediction Network for the Sustainable Development of the Gulf of Mexico
Authors: Herguera Juan Carlos ,   CIGOM
Published: March 2024

The need to understand and forecast disasters driven by anthropogenic and natural forces in the Gulf of Mexico and to support management responses to hazardous events led policymakers, scientists, and industry representatives in Mexico to launch an ocean observation and modeling project (2015–2023) aimed at collecting multi-layered baseline information and continuous monitoring of the ocean environment across the southern Gulf of Mexico. We will show the observational network and modeling efforts, led by the Research Consortium for the Gulf of Mexico (CIGoM), include developing a marine hazard warning system to investigate the multiple stressors that are altering the state and health of this large marine ecosystem and its coastal communities. This warning system is intended to aid in establishing of national contingency plans and mitigate the impacts of extreme events and long-term ocean trends. Stressors include hydrocarbon spills, tropical cyclones, marine heatwaves, long-term ocean surface warming, and harmful algal blooms. In this talk we will present part of our work related to the early warning system we have developed involving satelita detection, forecasting models and impact assessments of some oil spills that have occurred in the past few months in this region.
Prediction of the Structure of the Corona for the 2024 Total Solar Eclipse:  A Continuously Updated Model
Authors: Linker Jon , Downs Cooper , Caplan Ronald , Mason Emily , Ben-Nun Michal , Davidson Ryder , Lionello Roberto , Palmerio Erika , Reyes Andres , Riley Pete , Titov Viacheslav , Torok Tibor , Turtle James
Published: March 2024

Total solar eclipses offer an unparalleled opportunity to observe the low and middle corona.  As is our tradition, the solar physics team at Predictive Science is predicting the structure of the solar corona for the April 8, 2024 total solar eclipse, using a magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) model of the corona.  The model incorporates thermodynamic transport terms and employs a wave-turbulence-driven (WTD) description of coronal heating and solar wind acceleration.  Our previous coronal predictions employed relaxed MHD solutions corresponding to a boundary condition based on a single photospheric magnetic map, incorporating data that at best was measured 10 to 14 days prior to the eclipse.This year, we introduce a new paradigm:  A continuously updated prediction based on a time-evolving model.  To accomplish this near-real time description, we have incorporated 3 new elements:  (1) a time-evolving MHD model driven by evolution of the photospheric magnetic field,  (2) an automated method for energizing the non-potential corona near polarity inversion lines that evolve in time, and (3) The Open-source Flux Transport (OFT) model, that assimilates near-real time surface magnetic flux observations from SDO HMI as well as low-latency observations from the Solar Orbiter PHI instrument made away from the Sun–-Earth line.This presentation will give an overview of the entire prediction effort and describe the time-dependent coronal dynamical features that appear in the solutions.Research Supported by NASA and NSF.  Computational resources provided by the NSF ACCESS program and the NASA Advanced Supercomputing division at Ames.
CO2-forced change in glacial response to precession likely causes the Middle-Pleistocene Transition and ~100-kyr glacial cycles
Authors: Zhang Zhifeng , Huang Yongjian , Ma Chao , Yin Qiuzhen , Yang Hanfei , Lee Eun Young , Cheng Hai , Sames Benjamin , Wagreich Michael , Liu Qingping , Wang Tiantian , Wang Chengshan
Published: March 2024

Around ~800-1200 ka, the transition of glacial-interglacial cycles from earlier ~40-kyr into later ~100-kyr cyclicities without obvious changes in orbital parameters, known as the Middle-Pleistocene Transition (MPT), suggests that Earth’s internal factors, in addition to external astronomical forcing, are also essential for the glacial cycles. However, it is still unclear how internal and external factors interact to lead to the MPT and the ~100-kyr cycle. Here, we statistically analyzed the power spectral relationship between the ~21-kyr, ~41-kyr, and ~100-kyr components within 57 paleoclimate archives and reconstructed the astronomical phase relative to the maximal changing rate of benthic foraminifer oxygen isotopes (δ18O) over the past 2700 ka to explore the role of astronomical forcings in driving glacial cycles and their relationship with internal factors. The statistical results show that the ~21-kyr power ratio complements the ~100-kyr power ratio. The precession phase covaries with pCO2-modulated glacial dynamics and exhibits a contrasting correlation with the precession power ratio of benthic δ18O before and after ~1500 ka. These findings suggest that pCO2-modulated latitudinal extension of the icesheets determined the glacial response to precession. Around 1500 ka, the response apparently shifted into a nonlinear mode, enabling the gradual extension of glacial cycles into ~100-kyr periodicities at the expense of precession power, which signified the onset of the ~100-kyr glacial cycles. Our study confirms the nonlinear precession origin of ~100-kyr glacial cycles, featuring the possible low- and high-latitude interplay at the precession band.