Modeling of logistics of war reserve stockpiling for successful combat operations
Authors: Fedorovich Oleg , Lukhanin Mikhail , Prokhorov Oleksandr , Pronchakov Yurii , Leshchenko Oleksandr , Fedorovich Valeriy 
Published: April 2023

This paper formulates and solves a multivariate problem related to modeling the logistics of war reserve stockpiling for successful combat operations in the armed conflict area. The relevance of the study is related to a comprehensive solution to the problem of war reserve stockpiling to fulfill the objectives of a military operation, considering the capabilities of materiel suppliers, complex logistics of war materiel transportation to armed conflict areas, and military threats arising from the martial law in the country. The study creates a set of models that allow: prioritizing war materiel types for reserve stockpiling; formulating requirements for the size of reserves; selection of a rational structure of logistics supply chain, considering the risks of military threats; ensuring the success of combat operations in the armed conflict area. The article analyzes the existing problems of war reserve stockpiling under martial law, which arose due to: the variety of war materiel; small supply batches; different materiel manufacturers and suppliers located at a great distance from the armed conflict area; heterogeneous transport environment of supply; risks associated with military threats during war materiel reserve stockpiling. A method of presenting the importance of certain war materiel types for supply to the armed conflict area is proposed, considering the combat capability of individual weapons and assessments of military experts. The requirements for the amount of war materiel reserve in the interval representation, from the minimum to the maximum value of the inventory, have been formed. The minimum war materiel reserve to be used in the armed conflict area provides the necessary parity of military forces. Simultaneously, the nature of hostilities does not change, but the risks associated with the enemy's actions to destroy the war materiel reserve (war of reserves) may manifest themselves. The maximum war materiel reserve provides confidence in achieving the objectives of a military operation in the armed conflict area, but is difficult to implement due to the limited capabilities of weapons and materiel suppliers and existing military threats. An optimization model for the war reserve stockpiling was created, considering the limited capabilities of suppliers, permissible time for reserve stockpiling, and the risks that may arise from military threats and their impact on the logistics of war materiel supply (war of logistics). An optimization model for the war reserve stockpiling was developed, considering the combat capability of certain types of weapons, which makes it possible to create asymmetry in the military parity of forces due to the increased combat characteristics of modern weapons (quality over quantity). Due to the multitude of materiel manufacturers (possible suppliers) and various variants for the formation of supply chain, the task of enumeration of possible variants for the composition and structures of the logistics supply chain for war reserve stockpiling was formed and solved. The number of warehouse variants and logistics supply chain structures is estimated using the methods of enumeration theory, and a set of variants is formed for subsequent comparison and selection of a rational option. An optimization model for the formation of logistics links in the supply chain was created to form the necessary war reserve stocks in the armed conflict area. The example of HIMARS MLRS stockpiling illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach for successful combat operations in the armed conflict area, using both quantitative and qualitative assessments when comparing possible stockpiling variants. The scientific novelty of the study is related to the development of a set of original optimization models, models of the variant enumeration for the structures of the logistics supply chain, which allows scientifically sound formulation of requirements for the size of the war reserve stock for successful fulfillment of the objectives of a military operation in the armed conflict area, considering the capabilities of materiel suppliers, long supply chains in a heterogeneous transport environment, short delivery time, and the risks of military threats. It is advisable to use the results of the study for planning war reserve stock, for their effective use in the combat zone, justifying the composition of materiel manufacturers and suppliers, forming a logistics supply chain, which will ensure the success of combat operations in the armed conflict area.