Estimated number of lives directly saved by COVID-19 vaccination programs in the WHO European Region, December 2020 to March 2023
Authors:   The WHO European Respiratory Surveillance Network
Published: January 2024

Background

By March 2023, 54 countries, areas and territories (thereafter “CAT”) reported over 2.2 million coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) deaths to the World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Office for Europe (1). Here, we estimate how many lives were directly saved by vaccinating adults in the Region, from December 2020 through March 2023.

Methods

We estimated the number of lives directly saved by age-group, vaccine dose and circulating Variant of Concern (VOC) period, both regionally and nationally, using weekly data on COVID-19 mortality and COVID-19 vaccine uptake reported by 34 CAT, and vaccine effectiveness (VE) data from the literature. We calculated the percentage reduction in the number of expected and reported deaths.

Findings

We found that vaccines reduced deaths by 57% overall (CAT range: 15% to 75%), representing ∼1.4 million lives saved in those aged ≥25 years (range: 0.7 million to 2.6 million): 96% of lives saved were aged ≥60 years and 52% were aged ≥80 years; first boosters saved 51%, and 67% were saved during the Omicron period.

Interpretation

Over nearly 2.5 years, most lives saved by COVID-19 vaccinationwere in older adults by first booster dose and during the Omicron period, reinforcing the importance of up-to-date vaccination among these most at-risk individuals. Further modelling work should evaluate indirect effects of vaccination and public health and social measures.

Funding

This work was supported by a US Centers for Disease Control cooperative agreement (Grant number 6 NU511P000936-02-020), who had no role in data analysis or interpretation.

Disclaimer

The authors affiliated with the World Health Organization (WHO) are alone responsible for the views expressed in this publication and they do not necessarily represent the decisions or policies of the WHO.

Research in context

Evidence before this study

Since first identified in late 2019, COVID-19 has caused disproportionately high mortality rates in older adults. With the rapid development and licensing of novel COVID-19 vaccines, immunization campaigns across the WHO European Region started in late 2020 and early 2021, initially targeting the most vulnerable and exposed populations, including older adults, people with comorbidities and healthcare professionals. Several studies have estimated the number of lives saved by COVID-19 vaccination, both at national and multi-country level in the earlier stages of the pandemic. However, only one multi-country study has assessed the number of lives saved beyond the first year of the pandemic, particularly when the Omicron variant of concern (VOC) circulated, a period when vaccination coverage was high in many countries, areas and territories (CAT), but COVID-19 transmission was at its highest.

Added value of this study

Here we quantified the impact of COVID-19 vaccination in adults by age-group, vaccine dose and period of circulation of VOC, across diverse settings, using real world data reported by 34 CAT in the WHO European Region for the period December 2020 to April 2023. We estimated that COVID-19 vaccination programs were associated with a 57% reduction (CAT range: 15% to 75%) in the number of deaths among the ≥25 years old, representing over 1.5 million lives saved (range: 0.7 million to 2.6 million) in 34 European CAT during the first 2.5 years following vaccine introduction. The first booster savedthe most lives (721,122 / 1,408,967, (57%) of all lives saved). The ≥60 years old age group accounted for 96% of the total lives saved (1,349,617 / 1,408,967) whereas the ≥80 years old age group represented 52% of the total lives saved (728,858 / 1,408,967 lives saved) and 67% of all lives were saved during the Omicron period (942,571 / 1,408,967).

Implications of all the available evidence

Our results reinforce the importance of up-to-date COVID-19 vaccination, particularly among older age-groups. Communication campaigns supporting COVID-19 vaccination should stress the value of COVID-19 vaccination in saving lives to ensure vulnerable groups are up-to-date with vaccination ahead of periods of potential increased transmission.