bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Specification Analysis of Structural Credit Risk Models
Authors: Huang Jing-zhi , Zhou Hao
Published: August 2019

In this paper we conduct a specification analysis of structural credit risk models, using term structure of credit default swap (CDS) spreads and equity volatility from high-frequency return data. Our study provides consistent econometric estimation of the pricing model parameters and specification tests based on the joint behavior of time-series asset dynamics and cross-sectional pricing errors. Our empirical tests reject strongly the standard Merton (1974) model, the Black and Cox (1976) barrier model, and the Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) model with stochastic interest rates. The double exponential jump-diffusion barrier model (Huang and Huang, 2003) improves significantly over the three models. The best model is the stationary leverage model of Collin-Dufresne and Goldstein (2001), which we cannot reject in more than half of our sample firms. However, our empirical results document the inability of the existing structural models to capture the dynamic behavior of CDS spreads and equity volatility, especially for investment grade names. This points to a potential role of time-varying asset volatility, a feature that is missing in the standard structural models.
Uncertainty and Disagreement in Economic Forecasting
Authors: D'Amico Stefania , Orphanides Athanasios
Published: August 2019

Using the probabilistic responses from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we study the evolution of uncertainty and disagreement associated with inflation forecasts in the United States since 1968. We compare and contrast alternative measures summarizing the distributions of mean forecasts and forecast uncertainty across individuals at an approximate one-year-ahead horizon. In light of the heterogeneity in individual uncertainty reflected in the survey responses, we provide quarterly estimates for both average uncertainty and disagreement regarding uncertainty. We propose direct estimation of parametric distributions characterizing the uncertainty across individuals in a manner that mitigates errors associated with rounding and approximation of responses when individual uncertainty is small. Our results indicate that higher average expected inflation is associated with both higher average inflation uncertainty and greater disagreement about the inflation outlook. Disagreement about the mean forecast, however, may be a weak proxy for forecast uncertainty. We also examine the relationship of these measures with the term premia embedded in the term-structure of interest rates.
Imperfect Information and Monetary Models: Multiple Shocks and their Consequences
Authors: Berkelmans Leon W.
Published: August 2019

This paper examines the role of multiple aggregate shocks in monetary models with imperfect information. Because agents can draw mistaken inferences about which shock has occurred, the existence of multiple aggregate shocks profoundly influences macroeconomic dynamics. In particular, after a contractionary monetary shock these models can generate an initial increase in inflation (the "price puzzle") and a delayed disinflation (a "hump"). A conservative numerical illustration exhibits these patterns. In addition, the model shows that increased price flexibility is potentially destabilizing.
Fluctuations in Individual Labor Income: A Panel VAR Analysis
Authors: Vidangos Ivan
Published: August 2019

This paper studies variation in individual labor income over time using a panel vector autoregression (PVAR) in income, the wage rate, hours of work, and hours of unemployment. The framework is used to investigate how much of the residual variation in labor income is due to residual variation in the wage rate, work hours, and unemployment hours. I also explore the dynamic effects of unanticipated changes in each of the variables in the system, investigate their interactions, and assess their contribution to short-run and long-run income movements. The model is estimated on a sample of male household heads from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). I find that innovations in the wage rate and work hours (conditional on unemployment) are about equally important in the short run. Wage innovations are very persistent, while the effect of changes in hours is mostly transitory. As a result, the wage rate is much more important in the determination of income movements in the long run. Innovations in unemployment have a relatively small, but very persistent effect on income which operates through the wage rate.
Household Welfare, Precautionary Saving, and Social Insurance Under Multiple Sources of Risk
Authors: Vidangos Ivan
Published: August 2019

This paper assesses the quantitative importance of a number of sources of income risk for household welfare and precautionary saving. To that end I construct a lifecycle consumption model in which household income is subject to shocks associated with disability, health, unemployment, job changes, wages, work hours, and a residual component of household income. I use PSID data to estimate the key processes that drive and affect household income, and then use the consumption model to: (i) quantify the welfare value to consumers of providing full, actuarially fair insurance against each source of risk and (ii) measure the contribution of each type of shock to the accumulation of precautionary savings. I find that the value of fully insuring disability, health, and unemployment shocks is extremely small (well below 1/10 of 1 percent of lifetime consumption in the baseline model). The gains from insuring shocks to the wage and to the residual component of household income are significantly larger (above 1% and 2% of lifetime consumption, respectively). These two shocks account for more than 60% of precautionary wealth.
Reset price inflation and the impact of monetary policy shocks
Authors: Bils Mark , Klenow Peter J. , Malin Benjamin
Published: August 2019

A standard state-dependent pricing model implies very limited scope for using active monetary policy to stabilize real activity. Two modeling strategies which expand the role of monetary policy are time-dependent pricing and strategic complementarities between price-setting firms. These mechanisms have telltale implications for the persistence and volatility of 'reset price inflation.' Reset price inflation is the rate of change of all desired prices (including for goods that have not changed price in the current period). Using the micro data underpinning the CPI, we construct an empirical measure of reset price inflation and use this measure to assess the validity of the modeling approaches. We find that time-dependent models imply unrealistically high persistence and stability of reset price inflation. This discrepancy is exacerbated by adding strategic complementarities, even under state-dependent pricing. A state-dependent model with no strategic complementarities aligns most closely with the CPI data.
Household Borrowing After Personal Bankruptcy
Authors: Han Song , Li Geng
Published: August 2019

A large literature has examined factors leading to filing for personal bankruptcy, but little is known about household borrowing after bankruptcy. Using data from the Survey of Consumer Finances, we find that relative to comparable nonfilers, bankruptcy filers generally have more limited access to unsecured credit but borrow more secured debt post bankruptcy, and they pay higher interest rates on all types of debt. We also find that credit access and borrowing costs improve as more time passed since filing. However, filers experience renewed debt payment difficulties and accumulate less wealth, even many years after filing, suggesting that for many bankrupt households, debt discharges fail to generate an effective fresh start as intended by the law. Our estimate also provides empirical guidance for calibrating the equilibrium models of household credit.
New Evidence on 401(k) Borrowing and Household Balance Sheets
Authors: Li Geng , Smith Paul A.
Published: August 2019

Despite news reports suggesting a rise in 401(k) borrowing in recent years, we find that the share of eligible households with 401(k) loans in the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances was about 15 percent, roughly what it has been since 1995. We find that the best predictors of 401(k) borrowing appear to be the presence of liquidity or borrowing constraints and the size of 401(k) balances relative to income. Since the ongoing financial crisis has likely caused these factors to move in opposite directions, the predicted effect of the crisis on 401(k) borrowing is ambiguous. More fundamentally, we find that many loan-eligible households carry relatively expensive consumer debt that could be more economically financed via 401(k) borrowing. In the aggregate, we estimate that such households could have saved as much as $5 billion in 2007 by shifting expensive consumer debt to 401(k) loans. This would translate into annual savings of about $275 per household--roughly 20 percent of their overall interest costs--with larger reductions for households that carry consumer debt at high interest rates or who hold larger 401(k) balances. We posit that households might utilize 401(k) loans less than expected due to risk-aversion, self-control problems, and confusion about the potential gains, and suggest better financial education that clarifies the conditions under which 401(k) borrowing is advantageous. Finally, we note that allowing households to repay 401(k) loans gradually even after separation from their employers could improve household welfare by reducing the risks of 401(k) borrowing.
The Role of the Securitization Process in the Expansion of Subprime Credit
Authors: Nadauld Taylor D. , Sherlund Shane M.
Published: August 2019

We analyze the structure and attributes of subprime mortgage-backed securitization deals originated between 1997 and 2007. Our data set allows us to link loan-level data for over 6.7 million subprime loans to the securitization deals into which the loans were sold. We show that the securitization process, including the assignment of credit ratings, provided incentives for securitizing banks to purchase loans of poor credit quality in areas with high rates of house price appreciation. Increased demand from the secondary mortgage market for these types of loans appears to have facilitated easier credit in the primary mortgage market. To test this hypothesis, we identify an event which represents an external shock to the relative demand for subprime mortgages in the secondary market. We show that following the SEC's adoption of rules reducing capital requirements on certain broker dealers in 2004, five large deal underwriters disproportionately increased their purchasing activity relative to competing underwriters in ZIP codes with the highest realized rates of house price appreciation but lower average credit quality. We show that these loans subsequently defaulted at marginally higher rates. Finally, using the event as an instrument, we demonstrate a causal link between the demand for mortgages in the secondary mortgage market and the supply of subprime credit in the primary mortgage market.
Does Tax Policy Affect Executive Compensation? Evidence from Postwar Tax Reforms
Authors: Frydman Carola , Molloy Raven Saks
Published: August 2019

Evidence since the 1980s suggests that the level and structure of executive compensation in U.S. public corporations are largely unresponsive to tax incentives. However, the relative tax advantage of different forms of pay has been relatively small during this period. Using a sample of top executives in large firms from 1946 to 2005, we find little response of salaries, qualified stock options, long-term incentive pay, or bonuses paid after retirement to changes in tax rates on labor income--even though tax rates were significantly higher and more heterogeneous across individuals in the first several decades following WWII. To explain this lack of response, we find suggestive evidence that concerns about within-firm equality may have limited firms' ability to differentiate top executives' compensation packages based on their marginal income tax rates.
And Banking for All?
Authors: Barr Michael S. , Dokko Jane K. , Keys Benjamin J.
Published: August 2019

This paper presents data from a new survey of low- and moderate-income households in Detroit to examine bank account usage and alternative financial service (AFS) products. We find that for the vast majority of households, annual outlays on financial services for transactional and credit products are relatively small, around 1 percent of annual income. This estimate is lower than those extrapolated by previous work using the posted fees of financial services alone, suggesting that LMI households do not always choose the most expensive financial services option. This evidence is also consistent with LMI households substituting among an array of financial services from the mainstream and alternative financial services sector. Households with bank accounts are more economically active and have access to more forms of credit than unbanked households, resulting in greater use of financial services and higher total outlays. Results from the DAHFS study show permeability in the financial services decisions of LMI households. Namely, having a bank account does not preclude the use of AFS, being unbanked does not exclude households from using mainstream financial services, and contrary to popular belief, being unbanked is not a permanent financial outcome. Generally, results from the DAHFS study suggest that policies designed to expand bank account access alone are unlikely to improve financial outcomes among LMI households unless accompanied by changes in the functionality of mainstream banking products.
Designing Loan Modifications to Address the Mortgage Crisis and the Making Home Affordable Program
Authors: Cordell Lawrence R. , Dynan Karen E. , Lehnert Andreas , Liang J. Nellie , Mauskopf Eileen
Published: August 2019

Delinquencies on residential mortgages and home foreclosures have risen dramatically in the past couple of years. The mortgage losses triggered a broad-based financial crisis and severe recession, which, in turn, exacerbated the initial financial distress faced by homeowners. Although servicers increased their loss mitigation efforts as defaults began to mount, foreclosures continued to occur in cases where both the borrower and investor would be better off if such an outcome were avoided. The U.S. government has engaged in a number of initiatives to reduce such foreclosures. This paper examines the economic underpinnings of the Administration's loan modification program, the Home Affordable Modification Program (HAMP). We argue that HAMP should help many borrowers avoid foreclosure, as its key features--a standardized protocol, incentive fees for servicers, and a requirement that the first lien mortgage payment be reduced to 31 percent of gross income--alleviate some of the previous obstacles to successful modifications. That said, HAMP is not well-suited to address payment problems associated with job loss because the required modification in such cases would often be too costly to qualify for the program. In addition, the focus of the program on reducing the payments associated with the mortgage rather than the principal of the mortgage may limit its effectiveness when the homeowner's equity is sufficiently negative. In this case, recent government efforts to establish a protocol for short sales should be a useful tool in avoiding costly foreclosure.
The Finances of American Households in the Past Three Recessions: Evidence from the Survey of Consumer Finances
Authors: Moore Kevin B. , Palumbo Michael G.
Published: August 2019

The downturn in economic activity in the U.S. that began in December 2007 (as determined by researchers with the National Bureau of Economic Research) has been noticeably deeper and has already lasted considerably longer than the prior two recessions--those beginning in July 1990 and in March 2001. In addition, a key difference between the current and the past two recessions is the extent to which consumer spending and residential investment have dropped since late 2007--that is, the extent to which the household sector appears to have 'led' the drop in aggregate economic activity in this recession. This paper uses household-level data from the Federal Reserve Board's series of Surveys of Consumer Finances to document three factors that appear to have contributed to greater financial stress in the household sector in the current downturn compared with the prior two: 1) substantial and widespread reductions in home values that resulted in sizable erosions of home equity and net worth for many homeowners 2) markedly expanded holdings of corporate equity among middle-income households which lost significant market value, on net, as stock prices sunk and, 3) greater debt on household balance sheets and overall financial vulnerability around the onset of the 2008-09 recession, particularly for those in the middle of the income distribution.
Distance Still Matters: The Information Revolution in Small Business Lending and the Persistent Role of Location, 1993-2003
Authors: Brevoort Kenneth P. , Holmes John A. , Wolken John D.
Published: August 2019

In a seminal article on small business lending, Petersen & Rajan (2002) argue that technological changes have revolutionized small business lending markets, weakening the reliance of small businesses on local lenders and increasing geographic distances between firms and their credit suppliers. While their data only cover through 1993, they conjecture that the pace of change accelerated after 1993. Using the 1993, 1998, and 2003 Surveys of Small Business Finances (SSBFs), we test whether the distance changes identified by Petersen and Rajan continued or accelerated during the following decade. Using a novel application of Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, we identify the extent to which specific observable characteristics are associated with distance changes and draw three conclusions. First, while distances increased between 1993 and 1998 at a faster rate than found by Petersen & Rajan, distance increases appear to have halted or possibly reversed between 1998 and 2003. Second, rather than increasing proportionally for all small firms, distance increases were uneven across firms over the decade, with higher credit quality firms and firms with more experienced ownership realizing greater gains in distance than other firms. Finally, distances increased faster at older firms and, regardless of firm age, increases in distance have only affected some product types, primarily those involving asset-back loans (including mortgages). For relationships that involved the provision of either lines of credit or multiple types of credit, distances increased very little or not at all during the decade. This analysis provides a detailed and nuanced view of how the market for small business credit has evolved during a period of rapid technological change.
Are Spectral Estimators Useful for Implementing Long-Run Restrictions in SVARs?
Authors: Mertens Elmar
Published: August 2019

... No, not really, since spectral estimators suffer from small sample and misspecification biases just as VARs do. Spectral estimators are no panacea for implementing long-run restrictions. In addition, when combining VAR coefficients with non-parametric estimates of the spectral density, care needs to be taken to consistently account for information embedded in the non-parametric estimates about serial correlation in VAR residuals. This paper uses a spectral factorization to ensure a correct representation of the data's variance. But this cannot overcome the fundamental problems of estimating the long-run dynamics of macroeconomic data in samples of typical length.
Variance Risk Premia, Asset Predictability Puzzles, and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
Authors: Zhou Hao
Published: August 2019

This paper presents predictability evidence from the difference between implied and expected variances or variance risk premium that: (1) the variance difference measure predicts a significant positive risk premium across equity, bond, and credit markets (2) the predictability is short-run, in that it peaks around one to four months and dies out as the horizon increases and (3) such a short-run predictability is complementary to that of the standard predictor variables--P/E ratio, forward spread, and short rate. These findings are potentially justifiable by a general equilibrium model with recursive preference that incorporates stochastic economic uncertainty. Calibration evidence suggests that such a framework is capable of reproducing the variance premium dynamics, especially its high skewness and kurtosis, without introducing jumps. The calibrated model can also qualitatively explain the equity premium puzzle and the bond risk premia in short horizons.
Real-Time Model Uncertainty in the United States: 'Robust' Policies Put to the Test
Authors: Tetlow Robert
Published: August 2019

I study 46 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis, as measures of real-time model uncertainty. I also study the implications of model uncertainty for the robustness of commonly applied, simple monetary policy rules. I first document that model uncertainty poses substantial challenges for policymakers in that key model properties differ in important ways across model vintages. Then I show that the parameterization of optimized simple policy rule--rules that are intended to be robust with respect to model uncertainty--also differ substantially across model vintages. Included in the set of rules are rules that eschew feedback on the output gap, rules that target nominal income growth, and rules that allow for time variation in the equilibrium real interest rate. I find that many rules, which previous research has shown to be robust in artificial economies, would have failed to provide adequate stabilization in the real-time, real-world environment seen by the Fed staff. However, I do identify certain policy rules that would have performed relatively well, and I characterize the key features of those rules to draw more general lessons about the design of monetary policy under model uncertainty.
Tips from TIPS: The Informational Content of Treasury Inflation-Protected Security Prices
Authors: D'Amico Stefania , Wei Min , Kim Don H.
Published: August 2019

TIPS breakeven inflation rate, defined as the difference between nominal and TIPS yields of comparable maturities, is potentially useful as a real-time measure of market inflation expectations. In this paper, we provide evidence that a fairly large TIPS liquidity premium existed until recently, using a multifactor no-arbitrage term structure model estimated with nominal and TIPS yields, inflation and survey forecasts of interest rates. Ignoring the TIPS liquidity premiums leads to counterintuitive implications for inflation expectations and inflation risk premium, and produces large pricing errors for TIPS. In contrast, models incorporating a TIPS liquidity factor generate much better fit for these variables and reveal a TIPS liquidity premium that was until recently quite large (~1%) but has come down in recent years, consistent with the common perception that TIPS market grew and liquidity conditions improved. Our results indicate that after taking proper account of the liquidity conditions in the TIPS market, the movement in TIPS breakeven inflation rate can provide useful information for identifying real yields, expected inflation and inflation risk premium.
The Credit Market Consequences of Job Displacement
Authors: Keys Benjamin J.
Published: August 2019

This paper demonstrates the important role of job displacement in the household bankruptcy decision. I develop a dynamic, forward-looking model of unemployment and bankruptcy where persistent negative income shocks increase a household's likelihood of filing for bankruptcy both immediately and in the future. Consistent with the model's predictions, I find that households in the NLSY are 2.5 times more likely to file for bankruptcy in the year immediately following a job loss, at a rate of an additional 10 bankruptcies per 1000 job losses. Heightened bankruptcy risk then declines in magnitude but persists for two to three years. Aggregate patterns in job loss and bankruptcy are also consistent with the micro model. Using county-level data, I similarly find that 1000 job losses are associated with 8 to 11 bankruptcies and that the effects also last two to three years. In addition, the loss of a manufacturing job, a proxy for a more persistent separation, is three times more likely to lead to bankruptcy than the loss of a non-manufacturing job. The results suggest that even relatively brief unemployment spells can have significant long-term consequences on households' credit market outcomes.
Measuring the Return on Spending on the Medicare HMO Program
Authors: Hall Anne E.
Published: August 2019

I estimate the welfare provided by and net costs of the Medicare HMO program in 1999-2002. I measure welfare with a nested logit model of demand for Medicare HMO plans using detailed data on plan benefits. From this, I derive estimates of consumer surplus and find that total welfare provided by the program over the four-year period is about $61 billion (2000 $). I also use data on favorable selection enjoyed by Medicare HMOs to estimate net costs, which total about $21 billion (2000 $). Net welfare therefore totals nearly $40 billion and the return on spending is about 186%.
Granularity Adjustment for Mark-to-Market Credit Risk Models
Authors: Gordy Michael B. , Marrone James
Published: August 2019

The impact of undiversified idiosyncratic risk on value-at-risk and expected shortfall can be approximated analytically via a methodology known as granularity adjustment (GA). In principle, the GA methodology can be applied to any risk-factor model of portfolio risk. Thus far, however, analytical results have been derived only for simple models of actuarial loss, i.e., credit loss due to default. We demonstrate that the GA is entirely tractable for single-factor versions of a large class of models that includes all the commonly used mark-to-market approaches. Our approach covers both finite ratings-based models and models with a continuum of obligor states. We apply our methodology to CreditMetrics and KMV Portfolio Manager, as these are benchmark models for the finite and continuous classes, respectively. Comparative statics of the GA with respect to model parameters in CreditMetrics reveal striking and counterintuitive patterns. We explain these relationships with a stylized model of portfolio risk.
The Information Content of High-Frequency Data for Estimating Equity Return Models and Forecasting Risk
Authors: Dobrev Dobrislav , Szerszen Pawel J.
Published: August 2019

We demonstrate that the parameters controlling skewness and kurtosis in popular equity return models estimated at daily frequency can be obtained almost as precisely as if volatility is observable by simply incorporating the strong information content of realized volatility measures extracted from high-frequency data. For this purpose, we introduce asymptotically exact volatility measurement equations in state space form and propose a Bayesian estimation approach. Our highly efficient estimates lead in turn to substantial gains for forecasting various risk measures at horizons ranging from a few days to a few months ahead when taking also into account parameter uncertainty. As a practical rule of thumb, we find that two years of high frequency data often suffice to obtain the same level of precision as twenty years of daily data, thereby making our approach particularly useful in finance applications where only short data samples are available or economically meaningful to use. Moreover, we find that compared to model inference without high-frequency data, our approach largely eliminates underestimation of risk during bad times or overestimation of risk during good times. We assess the attainable improvements in VaR forecast accuracy on simulated data and provide an empirical illustration on stock returns during the financial crisis of 2007-2008.
Capturing the Evolution of Dealer Credit Terms Related to Securities Financing and OTC Derivatives: Some Initial Results from the New Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing Terms
Authors: Eichner Matthew J. , Natalucci Fabio M.
Published: August 2019

In the period prior to the financial crisis, leverage in the financial system increased substantially. This buildup was likely facilitated by, among other factors, a loosening of credit terms related to OTC derivatives and securities financing transactions. However, little or no systematic data on these trends were available at the time. The new Senior Credit Officer Opinion Survey on Dealer Financing Terms, which was conducted for the first time in June 2010, partially fills this gap. The new survey provides qualitative information about changes in credit terms and conditions across the entire range of these transactions, and the evolution of market conditions and conventions applicable to such activities.
Flow and Stock Effects of Large-Scale Treasury Purchases
Authors: D'Amico Stefania , King Thomas B.
Published: August 2019

Using a panel of daily CUSIP-level data, we study the effects of the Federal Reserve's program to purchase $300 billion of U.S. Treasury coupon securities announced and implemented during 2009. This program represented an unprecedented intervention in the Treasury market and thus allows us to shed light on the price elasticities and substitutability of Treasuries, preferred-habitat theories of the term structure, and the ability of large-scale asset purchases to reduce overall yields and improve market functioning. We find that each purchase operation, on average, caused a decline in yields in the sector purchased of 3.5 basis points on the days when these purchases occurred (the 'flow effect' of the program). In addition, the program as a whole resulted in a persistent downward shift in the yield curve of as much as 50 basis points (the 'stock effect'), with the largest impact in the 10- to 15-year sector. The coefficient patterns generally support a view of segmentation or imperfect substitution within the Treasury market.
Does Credit Scoring Produce a Disparate Impact?
Authors: Avery Robert B. , Brevoort Kenneth P. , Canner Glenn B.
Published: August 2019

The widespread use of credit scoring in the underwriting and pricing of mortgage and consumer credit has raised concerns that the use of these scores may unfairly disadvantage minority populations. A specific concern has been that the independent variables that comprise these models may have a disparate impact on these demographic groups. By 'disparate impact' we mean that a variable's predictive power might arise not from its ability to predict future performance within any demographic group, but rather from acting as a surrogate for group membership. Using a unique source of data that combines a nationally representative sample of credit bureau records with demographic information from the Social Security Administration and a demographic information company, we examine the extent to which credit history scores may have such a disparate impact. Our examination yields no evidence of disparate impact by race (or ethnicity) or gender. However, we do find evidence of limited disparate impact by age, in which the use of variables related to an individual's credit history appear to lower the credit scores of older individuals and increase them for the young.
Foreclosure's Wake: The Credit Experiences of Individuals Following Foreclosure
Authors: Brevoort Kenneth P. , Cooper Cheryl R.
Published: August 2019

While a substantial literature has examined the causes of mortgage foreclosure, there has been relatively little work on the consequences of foreclosure for the borrowers themselves. Using a large sample of anonymous credit bureau records, observed quarterly from 1999Q1 through 2010Q1, we examine the credit experiences of almost 350,000 borrowers before and after their mortgage foreclosure. Our analysis documents the substantial declines in credit scores that accompany foreclosure and examines the length of time it takes individuals to return their credit scores to pre-delinquency levels. The results suggest that, particularly for prime borrowers, credit score recovery comes slowly, if at all. This appears to be driven by persistently higher levels of delinquency on consumer credit (such as auto and credit card loans) in the years that follow foreclosure. Our results also indicate that the experiences of individuals whose mortgages entered foreclosure from 2007 to 2009 have followed a similar path to borrowers foreclosed earlier in the decade, though post-foreclosure delinquency rates for the recently foreclosed have been higher and, consequently, credit score recovery appears to be taking longer.
Creating a Linchpin for Financial Data: Toward a Universal Legal Entity Identifier
Authors: Bottega John A. , Powell Linda F.
Published: August 2019

The financial industry, like many others, is powered by information and data. A number of government agencies, quasi-government agencies, and private companies collect, process, use, and distribute information about a variety of players in the financial world. While the subjects of the data (balance sheet items or counterparty information, for example) may vary dramatically by agency and use, they all describe a particular financial institution or legal entity. Yet a standard way to uniquely identify one financial entity from another does not currently exist. A Social Security number distinguishes one John Smith from another John Smith, but at present no single identifier distinguishes one First National Bank from another. Several private companies have developed proprietary identifiers created for their own purposes but none of those identifiers are industry-wide, universal, or strictly focused on identifying a specific institution. A diverse group of analysts from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and Treasury have developed guidelines detailing the best way the industry might create, develop, and maintain such a crucial identifier. The paper summarizes the current environment of entity identification and the problems that are currently encountered in both the private and public sectors by the lack of an industry-wide identifier. The paper identifies the key components that should be incorporated into the LEI such as uniqueness, persistence, and public availability. The paper identifies possible alternative approaches to solving the LEI problem and supports a collaborative public and private sector approach. The paper also considers the need for an international solution, as financial markets grow ever more interconnected across the globe.
Liquidity Problems and Early Payment Default among Subprime Mortgages
Authors: Anderson Nathan B. , Dokko Jane K.
Published: August 2019

The lack of property tax escrow accounts among subprime mortgages causes borrowers to make large lump-sum tax payments that reduce liquidity. Different property tax collection dates across states and counties create exogenous variation in the time between loan origination and the first property tax due date, affording the opportunity to estimate the causal effect of loan-level exposure to liquidity reductions on mortgage default. We find that a nine-month delay in owing property taxes reduces the probability of first-year default by about 4 percent, or about one-third of the effect of a reduction in equity from 10 percent to negative 20 percent.
Litigation Risk, Strategic Disclosure and the Underpricing of Initial Public Offerings
Authors: Hanley Kathleen Weiss , Hoberg Gerard
Published: August 2019

Using word content analysis on the time-series of IPO prospectuses, we find evidence that issuers trade off underpricing and strategic disclosure as potential hedges against litigation risk. This tradeoff explains a significant fraction of the variation in prospectus revision patterns, IPO underpricing, the partial adjustment phenomenon, and litigation outcomes. We find that strong disclosure is an effective hedge against all lawsuits. Underpricing, however, is an effective hedge only against the incidence of Section 11 lawsuits, those lawsuits which are most damaging to the underwriter. Underwriters who fail to adequately hedge litigation risk experience economically large penalties including loss of market share.
Preferences for Banking and Payment Services Among Low- and Moderate-Income Households
Authors: Barr Michael S. , Dokko Jane K. , Feit Eleanor McDonnell
Published: August 2019

This paper characterizes the features of an account-based payment card--including bank debit cards, prepaid debit cards, and payroll cards--that elicit a high take-rate among low- and moderate-income (LMI) households, particularly those without bank accounts. We apply marketing research techniques, specifically choice modeling, to identify the design of a specific financial services product for LMI households, who often face difficulties maintaining standard bank accounts but need banking services. After monthly cost, we find that, on average, non-monetary features of a payment card, such as the availability of federal protection and the type of card, are factors LMI consumers weigh most heavily when choosing among differently designed payment cards. We estimate a high take-rate for a well-designed payment card that is decreasing in its cost. The sensitivity of the take-rate with respect to cost varies by income and bank account ownership. These results can guide private and public sector initiatives to expand the range of financial services available to LMI households.
Volatility, Money Market Rates, and the Transmission of Monetary Policy
Authors: Carpenter Seth B. , Demiralp Selva
Published: August 2019

Central banks typically control an overnight interest rate as their policy tool, and the transmission of monetary policy happens through the relationship of this overnight rate to the rest of the yield curve. The expectations hypothesis, that longer-term rates should equal expected future short-term rates plus a term premium, provides the typical framework for understanding this relationship. We explore the effect of volatility in the federal funds market on the expectations hypothesis in money markets. We present two major results. First, the expectations hypothesis is likely to be rejected in money markets if the realized federal funds rate is studied instead of an appropriate measure of the expected federal funds rate. Second, we find that lower volatility in the bank funding markets market, all else equal, leads to a lower term premium and thus longer-term rates for a given setting of the overnight rate. The results appear to hold for the US as well as the Euro Area and the UK. The results have implications for the design of operational frameworks for the implementation of monetary policy and for the interpretation of the changes in the Libor-OIS spread during the financial crisis. We also demonstrate that the expectations hypothesis is more likely to hold the more closely linked the short- and long-term interest rates are.
The First Line of Defense: The Discount Window During the Early Stages of the Financial Crisis
Authors: Klee Elizabeth
Published: August 2019

This paper develops a theoretical model of trading in the federal funds market that captures characteristics of discount window borrowing and the federal funds market during the first year of the financial crisis, including the narrowing of the spread between the discount rate and the target rate the increased incidence of high-rate trading and the decline in participation in the federal funds market. The model shows that differences in stigma of borrowing from the discount window across banks can cause the federal funds rate to rise, even when the spread between the discount rate and the target rate narrows. The model is then evaluated using both aggregate and institution-level data. The data suggest that in aggregate, federal funds volume brokered at rates above the primary credit rate and discount window borrowing both increased during the first stages of the crisis. Bank-level data suggest that institutions that went to the discount window paid lower rates in the federal funds market than banks that did not. This effect became stronger as the spread between the primary credit rate and the target rate narrowed, coincident with the intensification of the financial crisis.
Legal Entity Identifier: What Else do You Need to Know?
Authors: Powell David , Montoya Mark , Shuvalov Elena
Published: August 2019

The passage of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act sparked discussion of creating a systematic code that uniquely identifies an entity. This code is commonly referred to as a legal entity identifier (LEI). The information that is collected to accompany and describe the LEI will play an important role in enhancing the usefulness of the LEI. This paper explores the information (referred to as reference data) commonly used in datasets that describe entities and evaluates the usefulness of reference data elements for uniquely identifying an entity and for monitoring systemic risk in the financial industry.
The Subprime Crisis: Is Government Housing Policy to Blame?
Authors: Avery Robert B. , Brevoort Kenneth P.
Published: August 2019

A growing literature suggests that housing policy, embodied by the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) and the affordable housing goals of the government sponsored enterprises, may have caused the subprime crisis. The conclusions drawn in this literature, for the most part, have been based on associations between aggregated national trends. In this paper we examine more directly whether these programs were associated with worse outcomes in the mortgage market, including delinquency rates and measures of loan quality. We rely on two empirical approaches. In the first approach, which focuses on the CRA, we conjecture that historical legacies create significant variations in the lenders that serve otherwise comparable neighborhoods. Because not all lenders are subject to the CRA, this creates a quasi-natural experiment of the CRA's effect. We test this conjecture by examining whether neighborhoods that have been disproportionally served by CRA-covered institutions historically experienced worse outcomes. The second approach takes advantage of the fact that both the CRA and GSE goals rely on clearly defined geographic areas to determine which loans are favored by the regulations. Using a regression discontinuity approach, our tests compare the marginal areas just above and below the thresholds that define eligibility, where any effect of the CRA or GSE goals should be clearest. We find little evidence that either the CRA or the GSE goals played a significant role in the subprime crisis. Our lender tests indicate that areas disproportionately served by lenders covered by the CRA experienced lower delinquency rates and less risky lending. Similarly, the threshold tests show no evidence that either program had a significantly negative effect on outcomes.
The Unreliability of Credit-to-GDP Ratio Gaps in Real -Time: Implications for Countercyclical Capital Buffers
Authors: Edge Rochelle M. , Meisenzahl Ralf
Published: August 2019

Macroeconomists have long recognized that activity-gap measures are unreliable in real time and that this can present serious difficulties for stabilization policy. This paper investigates whether the credit-to-GDP ratio gap, which has been proposed as a reference point for accumulating countercyclical capital buffers, is subject to similar problems. We find that ex-post revisions to the U.S. credit-to-GDP ratio gap are sizable and as large as the gap itself, and that the main source of these revisions stems from the unreliability of end-of-sample estimates of the series' trend rather than from revised estimates of the underlying data. The paper considers the potential costs of gap mismeasurement. We find that the volume of lending that may incorrectly be curtailed is potentially large, although loan interest-rates appear to increase only modestly.
Optimal Monetary Policy with State-Dependent Pricing
Authors: Nakov Anton , Thomas Carlos
Published: August 2019

In an abstract economic model, we study optimal monetary policy from the timeless perspective under a general state-dependent pricing framework. We find that when firms are monopolistic competitors subject to idiosyncratic menu cost shocks, households have isoelastic preferences, and there is no government spending, strict price stability is optimal both in the long run and in response to aggregate shocks. Key to this finding is an 'envelope' property: At zero inflation, a marginal increase in the rate of inflation has no effect on firms' profits and therefore it has no effect on the probability of price adjustment. Our results lend support to more informal statements about the suitability of the Calvo model for studying optimal monetary policy despite its apparent conflict with the Lucas critique. We offer an analytic solution that does not require local approximation or efficiency of the steady state.
Aging and Strategic Learning: The Impact of Spousal Incentives on Financial Literacy
Authors: Hsu Joanne W.
Published: August 2019

Women tend to be less financially literate than men, consistent with a division of labor where husbands manage finances. However, women tend to outlive their husbands. I find that older women acquire financial literacy as they approach widowhood — 80 percent would catch up with their husbands by the expected onset of widowhood. These gains are not attributable to husbands’ cognitive decline, as captured by cognition tests. The results are consistent with a model in which the division of labor collapses when a spouse dies: women have incentives to delay acquiring financial human capital, but also to begin learning before widowhood.
Are all Trade Policies Created Equal? Empirical Evidence for Nonequivalent Market Power Effects of Tariffs and Quotas
Authors: Blonigen Bruce A. , Liebman Benjamin H. , Pierce Justin R. , Wilson Wesley W.
Published: August 2019

Over the past 50 years, the steel industry has been protected by a wide variety of trade policies, both tariff- and quota-based. We exploit this extensive heterogeneity in trade protection to examine the well-established theoretical literature predicting nonequivalent effects of tariffs and quotas on domestic firms' market power. Using plant-level Census Bureau data for steel plants from 1967-2002, we find evidence for significant market power effects for binding quota-based protection, but not tariff-based protection, particularly with respect to integrated and minimill steel producers. Our results are robust to calculation with two standard measures of market power and controlling for potential endogeneity of trade policies.
The Analytics of SVARs: A Unified Framework to Measure Fiscal Multipliers
Authors: Caldara Dario , Kamps Christophe
Published: August 2019

Does fiscal policy stimulate output? SVARs have been used to address this question but no stylized facts have emerged. We derive analytical relationships between the output elasticities of fiscal variables and fiscal multipliers. We show that standard identification schemes imply different priors on elasticities, generating a large dispersion in multiplier estimates. We then use extra-model information to narrow the set of empirically plausible elasticities, allowing for sharper inference on multipliers. Our results for the U.S. for the period 1947-2006 suggest that the probability of the tax multiplier being larger than the spending multiplier is below 0.5 at all horizons.