bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Analytical Performance of a Loop-Mediated Isothermal Amplification Assay for Leishmania DNA Detection in Sandflies and Direct Smears of Patients with Cutaneous Leishmaniasis
Authors: León Cielo M. , Muñoz Marina , Tabares Juan H. , Hernandez Carolina , Florez Carolina , Ayala Martha S. , Ramírez Juan David
Published: March 2018

Loop-mediated isothermal amplification (LAMP) is ideal for the detection of Leishmania DNA as it is a quick and easy-to-perform test that does not require complex or sophisticated equipment or infrastructure. However, the application of this technique in the detection of Leishmania DNA has not been comprehensively analyzed to date (analytical validation). Our objective was to evaluate the sensitivity and analytical specificity (anticipated reportable range [ARR], the limit of detection [LoD], and accuracy) of LAMP targeting the 18S rRNA gene in the diagnosis of six New World Leishmania species. We then applied the validated LAMP assay across 50 samples of sandflies and 50 direct smears from a recent outbreak of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Colombia to determine its diagnostic performance. The LAMP assay exclusively amplified the DNA of Leishmania spp., and an ARR of between 1 × 104 and 1 × 10−2 equivalent parasites/mL was determined. An LoD of 1 × 10−2 equivalent parasites/mL was established and there was no statistically significant variation in terms of accuracy. Finally, a sensitivity of 100% in direct smears and sandflies samples was calculated and a specificity of 90.9% for direct smears using microscopy as reference and 96.8% for sandflies using real-time polymerase chain reaction as reference were determined. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to analytically validate a LAMP test to detect Leishmania DNA, which showed good diagnostic potential from sandflies and direct smear samples.
Impact of Four Years of Annual Mass Drug Administration on Prevalence and Intensity of Schistosomiasis among Primary and High School Children in Western Kenya: A Repeated Cross-Sectional Study
Authors: Abudho Bernard O. , Ndombi Eric M. , Guya Bernard , Carter Jennifer M. , Riner Diana K. , Kittur Nupur , Karanja Diana M. S. , Secor W. Evan , Colley Daniel G.
Published: March 2018

Schistosomiasis remains a major public health problem in Kenya. The World Health Organization recommends preventive chemotherapy with praziquantel (PZQ) to control morbidity due to schistosomiasis. Morbidity is considered linked to intensity of infection, which along with prevalence is used to determine the frequency of mass drug administration (MDA) to school-age children. We determined the impact of annual school-based MDA on children across all primary and high school years using a repeated cross-sectional study design in five schools near Lake Victoria in western Kenya, an area endemic for Schistosoma mansoni. At baseline and for the following four consecutive years, between 897 and 1,440 school children in Grades 1–12 were enrolled and evaluated by Kato-Katz for S. mansoni and soil-transmitted helminths (STH), followed by annual MDA with PZQ and albendazole. Four annual rounds of MDA with PZQ were associated with reduced S. mansoni prevalence in all school children (44.7–14.0%; P < 0.001) and mean intensity of infection by 91% (90.4 to 8.1 eggs per gram [epg] of stool; P < 0.001). Prevalence of high-intensity infection (≥ 400 epg) decreased from 6.8% at baseline to 0.3% by the end of the study. Soil-transmitted helminth infections, already low at baseline, also decreased significantly over the years. In this high prevalence area, annual school-based MDA with high coverage across all Grades (1–12) resulted in rapid and progressive declines in overall prevalence and intensity of infection. This decrease was dramatic in regard to heavy infections in older school-attending children.
In situ measurements of desert dust particles above the western Mediterranean Sea with the balloon-borne Light Optical Aerosol Counter/sizer (LOAC) during the ChArMEx campaign of summer 2013
Authors: Renard Jean-Baptiste , Dulac François , Durand Pierre , Bourgeois Quentin , Denjean Cyrielle , Vignelles Damien , Couté Benoit , Jeannot Matthieu , Verdier Nicolas , Mallet Marc
Published: March 2018

Abstract. Mineral dust from arid areas is a major component
of global aerosol and has strong interactions with climate and
biogeochemistry. As part of the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment
(ChArMEx) to investigate atmospheric chemistry and its impacts in the
Mediterranean region, an intensive field campaign was performed from mid-June
to early August 2013 in the western basin including in situ balloon-borne
aerosol measurements with the light optical aerosol counter (LOAC). LOAC is a
counter/sizer that provides the aerosol concentrations in 19 size classes
between 0.2 and 100 µm, and an indication of the nature of the
particles based on dual-angle scattering measurements. A total of 27 LOAC
flights were conducted mainly from Minorca Island (Balearic Islands, Spain)
but also from Ile du Levant off Hyères city (SE France) under 17 light
dilatable balloons (meteorological sounding balloons) and 10 boundary layer
pressurised balloons (quasi-Lagrangian balloons). The purpose was to document
the vertical extent of the plume and the time evolution of the concentrations
at constant altitude (air density) by in situ observations. LOAC measurements
are in agreement with ground-based measurements (lidar, photometer), aircraft
measurements (counters), and satellite measurements (CALIOP) in the case of
fair spatial and temporal coincidences. LOAC has often detected three modes
in the dust particle volume size distributions fitted by lognormal laws at
roughly 0.2, 4 and 30 µm in modal diameter. Thanks to the
high sensitivity of LOAC, particles larger than 40 µm were
observed, with concentrations up to about 10−4 cm−3. Such large
particles were lifted several days before and their persistence after
transport over long distances is in conflict with calculations of dust
sedimentation. We did not observe any significant evolution of the size
distribution during the transport from quasi-Lagrangian flights, even for the
longest ones (∼ 1 day). Finally, the presence of charged particles is
inferred from the LOAC measurements and we speculate that electrical forces
might counteract gravitational settling of the coarse particles.
Is Mass Transfer in Secondary Organic Aerosol Particles Intrinsically Slow? Equilibration Timescales of Engine Exhaust and α-Pinene SOA Under Dry and Humid Conditions
Authors: Atwi Khairallah , Baassiri Mohamad , Fawaz Mariam , Shihadeh Alan
Published: March 2018

Abstract. Semi-volatile secondary organic aerosols (SOA) comprise a major fraction of ambient particle pollutants. The partitioning of SOA in the atmosphere has commonly been assumed to be fast enough that it could be computed solely from thermodynamic equilibrium considerations e.g., using Raoult's Law. This simplifying assumption has been called into question by recent studies of single SOA particles evaporating in a zero-vapor concentration environment, which reported unexpectedly slow evaporation relative to atmospheric timescales. In this work we directly investigated the phase equilibration kinetics of systems of SOA particles under realistic atmospheric conditions. SOA was generated in an oxidation flow reactor (OFR) from engine exhaust or α-pinene and mixed with clean air in an atmospheric pressure smog chamber (32 °C) to induce evaporation. The evolution of the particle size distribution was monitored over time as the aerosol system returned to phase equilibrium under different particle concentrations (2.5 and 5 µg m−3) and humidity conditions (
A large-area blackbody for inflight calibration of an infrared interferometer deployed on board a long-duration balloon for stratospheric research
Authors: Olschewski Friedhelm , Monte Christian , Adibekyan Albert , Reiniger Max , Gutschwager Berndt , Hollandt Joerg , Koppmann Ralf
Published: March 2018

Abstract. The deployment of the imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer GLORIA (Gimballed Limb Observer for Radiance Imaging of the Atmosphere) on board a long-duration balloon for stratospheric research requires a blackbody for inflight calibration in order to provide traceability to the International Temperature Scale (ITS-90) to ensure comparability with the results of other experiments and over time. GLORIA, which has been deployed onboard various research aircraft such as the Russian M55 Geophysica or the German HALO in the past, shall also be used for detailed atmospheric measurements in the stratosphere up to 40 km altitude. The instrument uses a two-dimensional detector array and an imaging optics with a large aperture diameter of 36 mm and an opening angle of 4.07° × 4.07° for infrared limb observations. To overfill the field-of-view (FOV) of the instrument, a large-area blackbody radiation sources (125 mm × 125 mm) is required for inflight calibration. In order to meet the requirements regarding the scientific goals of the GLORIA missions, the radiance temperature of the blackbody calibration source has to be determined to better than 100 mK and the spatial uniformity shall be better than 100 mK. Since electrical resources onboard a stratospheric balloon are very limited, the latent heat of the phase change of a eutectic material is utilized for temperature stabilization of the calibration source, such that the blackbody has a constant temperature of about −32 °C corresponding to a typical temperature observed in the stratosphere. The Institute for Atmospheric and Environmental Research at the University ofWuppertal designed and manufactured a prototype of the large-area blackbody for inflight calibration of an infrared interferometer deployed onboard a long-duration balloon for stratospheric research. This newly developed calibration source was tested under lab conditions as well as in a climatic and environmental test chamber in order to verify its performance especially under flight conditions. At PTB (Physikalisch-Technische Bundesanstalt), the German national metrology institute the spectral and spatial radiance distribution of the blackbody was determined and traceability to the International Temperature Scale (ITS-90) has been assured. In this paper the design and performance of the Balloon-borne BlackBody (BBB) is presented.
Increasing coastal slump activity impacts the release of sediment and organic carbon into the Arctic Ocean
Authors: Ramage Justine L. , Irrgang Anna M. , Morgenstern Anne , Lantuit Hugues
Published: March 2018

Abstract. Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTSs) are among the most active
thermokarst landforms in the Arctic and deliver a large amount of material
to the Arctic Ocean. However, their contribution to the organic carbon (OC)
budget is unknown. We provide the first estimate of the contribution of RTSs
to the nearshore OC budget of the Yukon Coast, Canada, and describe the
evolution of coastal RTSs between 1952 and 2011 in this area. We (1) describe
the evolution of RTSs between 1952 and 2011; (2) calculate the volume of
eroded material and stocks of OC mobilized through slumping, including soil
organic carbon (SOC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC); and (3) estimate the OC
fluxes mobilized through slumping between 1972 and 2011. We identified RTSs
using high-resolution satellite imagery from 2011 and geocoded aerial
photographs from 1952 and 1972. To estimate the volume of eroded material,
we applied spline interpolation on an airborne lidar dataset acquired in
July 2013. We inferred the stocks of mobilized SOC and DOC from existing
related literature. Our results show a 73 % increase in the number of RTSs
and 14 % areal expansion between 1952 and 2011. In the study area, RTSs
displaced at least 16.6×106 m3 of material, 53 % of which was
ice, and mobilized 145.9×106 kg of OC. Between 1972 and 2011, 49 RTSs
displaced 8.6×103 m3 yr−1 of material, adding 0.6 % to the OC flux
released by coastal retreat along the Yukon Coast. Our results show that the
contribution of RTSs to the nearshore OC budget is non-negligible and should
be included when estimating the quantity of OC released from the Arctic
coast to the ocean.
Diversity of intact polar lipids in the oxygen minimum zone of the Eastern Tropical North Pacific: Biogeochemical implications of non-phosphorus lipids
Authors: Schubotz Florence , Xie Sitan , Lipp Julius S. , Hinrichs Kai-Uwe , Wakeham Stuart G.
Published: March 2018

Abstract. Intact polar lipids (IPLs) are the main building blocks of cellular membranes and contain chemotaxonomic, ecophysiologic and metabolic information, which makes them valuable biomarkers in microbial ecology and biogeochemistry. This study investigates the IPL distribution in suspended particulate matter (SPM) in the water column of the Eastern Tropical North Pacific Ocean (ETNP), an area characterized by one of the most extensive open ocean oxygen minimum zones (OMZ) in the world with strong gradients of nutrients, temperature and redox conditions. A wide structural variety in polar lipid head group composition and core structures exists along physical and geochemical gradients within the OMZ. Our goal is to use this structural diversity in IPLs to evaluate the microbial ecology and ecophysiological adaptations that affect organisms inhabiting the OMZ in the context of biogeochemical cycles. Diacylglycerol phospholipids are present at all depths, but exhibit highest relative abundance and compositional variety (including mixed acyl/ether core structures) in the upper and core OMZ where prokaryotic biomass was enriched. Surface ocean SPM is dominated by diacylglycerol glycolipids that are typical lipid components of photosynthetic membranes. These and other glycolipids with varying core structures composed of ceramides and hydroxylated fatty acids are also detected with varying relative abundances in the OMZ and deep oxycline, signifying additional non-phototrophic bacterial sources for these lipids. Similarly, betaine lipids (with none or multiple hydroxylations in the core structures) that are typically assigned to microalgae are found throughout the water column down to the deep oxycline but do not show a depth-related trend in relative abundance. Archaeal IPLs comprised of glycosidic and mixed glycosidic-phosphatidic glycerol dibiphytanyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) are most abundant in the upper OMZ where nitrate maxima point to ammonium oxidation, but increase in relative abundance in the core OMZ and deep oxycline. The presence of abundant non-phosphorus lipids within the OMZ suggests that the indigenous microbes might be phosphorus limited at phosphate concentrations of 1 to 3.5 µM. It remains unclear if the detected amino and glycolipids indeed function as substitutes for phospholipid in these oxygen-depleted environments as microbial sources for many of these lipids still remain unknown.
Inferring particle dynamics in the Mediterranean Sea from in-situ
pump POC and chloropigment data using Bayesian statistics
Authors: Wang Weilei , Lee Cindy , Primeau Francois
Published: March 2018

Abstract. Chloropigment and particulate organic carbon (POC) concentration data collected using in-situ large-volume pumps during the MedFlux project in the Mediterranean Sea in May 2005 provided an opportunity to estimate rate constants that control the fate of particles and specifically chloropigments in the water column. Additionally, comparisons to thorium and chloropigment data from settling-velocity (SV) sediment traps at the same site enabled us to distinguish between the influence of the sampling method used vs. the tracer used on particle dynamic rate constants. Here we introduce a Bayesian statistical inversion method that combines the data with a new box model and has the capacity to infer rate constants for POC respiration/dissolution, chlorophyll and phaeopigment degradation, and particle aggregation and disaggregation. The estimated small-particle (1–70 μm) POC respiration rate constant was 1.25+0.55−0.38 yr−1 (0.80 yr). For this data set, the rate constants for chlorophyll (Chl) degradation to phaeopigments and phaeopigment respiration were not well constrained. The estimated aggregation and disaggregation rate constants were 7.65+3.35−2.33 (0.13 yr) and 106.09+39.13−28.59 yr−1 (0.01 yr), respectively, which indicates that particle aggregation and disaggregation were extensive at the studied depths (125–750 m) in May after the spring bloom had ended and flux was low.
How wrong are climate field reconstruction techniques in reconstructing a climate with long-range memory?
Authors: Nilsen Tine , Werner Johannes P. , Divine Dmitry V.
Published: March 2018

Abstract. The Bayesian hierarchical model BARCAST (Bayesian Algorithm for Reconstructing Climate Anomalies in Space and Time) climate field reconstruction (CFR) technique, and idealized input data are used in the pseudoproxy experiments of this study. Ensembles of targets are generated from fields of long-range memory stochastic processes using a novel approach. The range of experiment setups include input data with different levels of persistence and levels of proxy noise, but without any form of external forcing. The input data are thereby a simplistic alternative to standard target data extracted from general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Ensemble-based temperature reconstructions are generated, representing the European landmass for a millennial time period. Hypothesis testing in the spectral domain is then used to investigate if the field and spatial mean reconstructions are consistent with either the fractional Gaussian noise (fGn) null hypothesis used for generating the target data, or the autoregressive model of order one (AR(1)) null hypothesis which is the assumed temperature model for this reconstruction technique. The study reveals that the resulting field and spatial mean reconstructions are consistent with the fGn hypothesis for most of the parameter configurations. There are local differences in reconstructed scaling characteristics between individual grid cells, and a generally better agreement with the fGn model for the spatial mean reconstruction than at individual locations. The discrepancy from an fGn is most evident for the high-frequency part of the reconstructed signal, while the long-range memory is better preserved at frequencies corresponding to decadal time scales and longer. Selected experiment setups were found to give reconstructions consistent with the AR(1) model. Reconstruction skill is measured on an ensemble member basis using selected validation metrics. Despite the mismatch between the BARCAST temporal covariance model and the model of the target, the ensemble mean was in general found to be consistent with the target data, while the estimated confidence intervals are more affected by this discrepancy. Our results show that the use of target data with a different spatiotemporal covariance structure than the BARCAST model assumption can lead to a potentially biased CFR reconstruction and associated confidence intervals, because of the wrong model assumptions.
Regional scaling of annual mean precipitation and water availability with global temperature change
Authors: Greve Peter , Gudmundsson Lukas , Seneviratne Sonia I.
Published: March 2018

Abstract. Changes in regional water availability belong to the most crucial potential
impacts of anthropogenic climate change, but are highly uncertain. It is thus
of key importance for stakeholders to assess the possible implications of
different global temperature thresholds on these quantities. Using a subset
of climate model simulations from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model
Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), we derive here the sensitivity of regional
changes in precipitation and in precipitation minus evapotranspiration to global
temperature changes. The simulations span the full range of available
emission scenarios, and the sensitivities are derived using a modified
pattern scaling approach. The applied approach assumes linear relationships
on global temperature changes while thoroughly addressing associated
uncertainties via resampling methods. This allows us to assess the full
distribution of the simulations in a probabilistic sense. Northern
high-latitude regions display robust responses towards wetting, while
subtropical regions display a tendency towards drying but with a large range
of responses. Even though both internal variability and the scenario choice
play an important role in the overall spread of the simulations, the
uncertainty stemming from the climate model choice usually accounts for about
half of the total uncertainty in most regions. We additionally assess the
implications of limiting global mean temperature warming to values below
(i) 2 K or (ii) 1.5 K (as stated within the 2015 Paris Agreement). We show
that opting for the 1.5 K target might just slightly influence the mean
response, but could substantially reduce the risk of experiencing extreme
changes in regional water availability.
A continuum model of ice mélange and its role during retreat of the
Antarctic Ice Sheet
Authors: Pollard David , DeConto Robert M. , Alley Richard B.
Published: March 2018

Abstract. Rapidly retreating thick ice fronts can generate large amounts of mélange (floating ice debris), which may affect episodes of rapid retreat of Antarctic marine ice. In modern Greenland fjords, mélange provides substantial back pressure on calving ice faces, which slows ice-front velocities and calving rates. On the much larger scales of West Antarctica, it is unknown if mélange could clog seaways and provide enough back pressure to act as a negative feedback slowing retreat. Here we describe a new mélange model, using a continuum mechanical formulation that is computationally feasible for long-term continental Antarctic applications. It is tested in an idealized rectangular channel, and calibrated very basically using observed modern conditions in Jakobshavn fjord, West Greenland. The model is then applied to drastic retreat of Antarctic ice in response to warm mid-Pliocene climate. With mélange parameter values that yield reasonable modern Jakobshavn results, Antarctic marine ice still retreats drastically in the Pliocene simulations, with little slowdown despite the huge amounts of mélange generated. This holds both for the rapid early collapse of West Antarctica, and later retreat into major East Antarctic basins. If parameter values are changed to make the mélange much more resistive to flow, far outside the range for reasonable Jakobshavn results, West Antarctica still collapses and retreat is slowed or prevented only in a few East Antarctic basins.
Implementation of a comprehensive ice crystal formation
parameterization for cirrus and mixed-phase clouds into the EMAC
model (based on MESSy 2.53)
Authors: Bacer Sara , Sullivan Sylvia C. , Karydis Vlassis A. , Barahona Donifan , Krämer Martina , Nenes Athanasios , Tost Holger , Tsimpidi Alexandra P. , Lelieveld Jos , Pozzer Andrea
Published: March 2018

Abstract. A comprehensive ice nucleation parameterization has been implemented in the global chemistry-climate model EMAC to realistically represent ice crystal number concentrations. The parameterization of Barahona and Nenes (2009, hereafter BN09) allows the treatment of ice nucleation, taking into account the competition for water vapour between homogeneous and heterogeneous nucleation and pre-existing ice crystals in cold clouds. Furthermore, the influence of chemically-heterogeneous, polydisperse aerosols is considered via multiple ice nucleating particle spectra, which are included in the parameterization to compute the heterogeneously formed ice crystals. BN09 has been implemented to operate both in the cirrus and in the mixed-phase regimes. Compared to the standard EMAC results, BN09 produces fewer ice crystals in the upper troposphere but higher ice crystal number concentrations in the middle troposphere, especially in the Northern Hemisphere where ice nucleating mineral dust particles are relatively abundant. The comparison with a climatological data set of aircraft measurements shows that BN09 used in the cirrus regime improves the model results and, therefore, is recommended for future EMAC simulations.
Optimal Design of Hydrometric Station Networks Based on Complex
Network Analysis
Authors: Agarwal Ankit , Marwan Norbert , Rathinasamy Maheswaran , Ozturk Ugur , Merz Bruno , Kurths Jürgen
Published: March 2018

Abstract. Hydrometric networks play a vital role in providing information for decision-making in water resources management. They should be set up optimally to provide as much and as accurate information as possible, and at the same time, be cost-effective. We propose a new measure, based on complex network analysis, to support the design and redesign of hydrometric station networks. The science of complex networks is a relatively young field and has gained significant momentum in the last years in different areas such as brain networks, social networks, technological networks or climate networks. The identification of influential nodes in complex networks is an important field of research. We propose a new node ranking measure, the weighted degree-betweenness, to evaluate the importance of nodes in a network. It is compared to previously proposed measures on synthetic sample networks and then applied to a real-world rain gauge network comprising 1229 stations across Germany to check its applicability in the optimal design of hydrometric networks. The proposed measure is evaluated using the decline rate of network efficiency and the kriging error. The results suggest that it effectively quantifies the importance of rain stations. The new measure is very useful in identifying influential stations which need high attention and expendable stations which can be removed without much loss of information provided by the station network.
On the use of the GRACE normal equation of inter-satellite tracking data for estimation of soil moisture and groundwater in Australia
Authors: Tangdamrongsub Natthachet , Han Shin-Chan , Decker Mark , Yeo In-Young , Kim Hyungjun
Published: March 2018

Abstract. An accurate estimation of soil moisture and groundwater is essential for
monitoring the availability of water supply in domestic and agricultural
sectors. In order to improve the water storage estimates, previous studies
assimilated terrestrial water storage variation (ΔTWS) derived from
the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) into land surface models (LSMs).
However, the GRACE-derived ΔTWS was generally computed from the
high-level products (e.g. time-variable gravity fields, i.e. level 2, and land
grid from the level 3 product). The gridded data products are subjected to
several drawbacks such as signal attenuation and/or distortion caused by
a posteriori filters
and a lack of error covariance information. The
post-processing of GRACE data might lead to the undesired alteration of the
signal and its statistical property. This study uses the GRACE least-squares
normal equation data to exploit the GRACE information rigorously and negate
these limitations. Our approach combines GRACE's least-squares normal
equation (obtained from ITSG-Grace2016 product) with the results from the
Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model to improve soil moisture and
groundwater estimates. This study demonstrates, for the first time, an
importance of using the GRACE raw data. The GRACE-combined (GC) approach is
developed for optimal least-squares combination and the approach is applied
to estimate the soil moisture and groundwater over 10 Australian river
basins. The results are validated against the satellite soil moisture
observation and the in situ groundwater data. Comparing to CABLE, we
demonstrate the GC approach delivers evident improvement of water storage
estimates, consistently from all basins, yielding better agreement on
seasonal and inter-annual timescales. Significant improvement is found in
groundwater storage while marginal improvement is observed in surface soil
moisture estimates.
Relative effects of statistical preprocessing and postprocessing on a regional hydrological ensemble prediction system
Authors: Sharma Sanjib , Siddique Ridwan , Reed Seann , Ahnert Peter , Mendoza Pablo , Mejia Alfonso
Published: March 2018

Abstract. The relative roles of statistical weather preprocessing and
streamflow postprocessing in hydrological ensemble forecasting at short- to
medium-range forecast lead times (day 1–7) are investigated. For this
purpose, a regional hydrologic ensemble prediction system (RHEPS) is
developed and implemented. The RHEPS is comprised of the following
components: (i) hydrometeorological observations (multisensor precipitation
estimates, gridded surface temperature, and gauged streamflow); (ii) weather
ensemble forecasts (precipitation and near-surface temperature) from the
National Centers for Environmental Prediction 11-member Global Ensemble
Forecast System Reforecast version 2 (GEFSRv2); (iii) NOAA's Hydrology
Laboratory-Research Distributed Hydrologic Model (HL-RDHM); (iv) heteroscedastic
censored logistic regression (HCLR) as the statistical
preprocessor; (v) two statistical postprocessors, an autoregressive model
with a single exogenous variable (ARX(1,1)) and quantile regression (QR);
and (vi) a comprehensive verification strategy. To implement the RHEPS, 1 to
7 days weather forecasts from the GEFSRv2 are used to force HL-RDHM and
generate raw ensemble streamflow forecasts. Forecasting experiments are
conducted in four nested basins in the US Middle Atlantic region, ranging
in size from 381 to 12 362 km2. Results show that the HCLR preprocessed ensemble precipitation forecasts
have greater skill than the raw forecasts. These improvements are more
noticeable in the warm season at the longer lead times (> 3 days). Both
postprocessors, ARX(1,1) and QR, show gains in skill relative to
the raw ensemble streamflow forecasts, particularly in the cool season, but
QR outperforms ARX(1,1). The scenarios that implement preprocessing and
postprocessing separately tend to perform similarly, although the
postprocessing-alone scenario is often more effective. The scenario
involving both preprocessing and postprocessing consistently outperforms the
other scenarios. In some cases, however, the differences between this
scenario and the scenario with postprocessing alone are not as significant.
We conclude that implementing both preprocessing and postprocessing ensures
the most skill improvements, but postprocessing alone can often be a
competitive alternative.
Approach for combining faults and area sources in seismic hazard
assessment: Application in southeastern Spain
Authors: Rivas-Medina Alicia , Benito Belén , Gaspar-Escribano Jorge Miguel
Published: March 2018

Abstract. This paper presents a methodological approach for seismic hazard assessment that considers a hybrid source model composed by faults as independent entities and zones (containing the residual seismicity). The seismic potential of both types of sources is derived from different data: for the zones, the recurrence model is estimated from the seismic catalog. For fault sources, it is inferred from kinematic parameters derived from paleoseismicty and GNSS measurements. Distributing the seismic potential associated to each source is a key question when considering hybrid models of zone and faults, which some authors solve by assigning to the fault only the earthquakes that exceed a fixed magnitude value Mc. In the present approach, instead of restricting the magnitudes of each type of source, the distribution of seismic potential is carried out only for magnitudes below the maximum magnitude value completely recorded in the catalog (Mmaxc). This is derived from a completeness analysis and can be lower than the Mmax generated by the faults, taking into account that their the recurrence period can be higher than the observation period of the catalog. The proposed approach is applied in southern Spain, a region of low-to-moderate seismic where faults move slowly. The results obtained are contrasted with the results of a seismic hazard model using the traditional zone model exclusively. Results show a concentration of expected accelerations around fault traces using the hybrid approach, which is not appreciated in the classic approach using zones exclusively.
FUNCTIONALIZATION OF EPDM RUBBER TOWARD BETTER SILICA DISPERSION AND REINFORCEMENT
Authors: Bansod Naresh D. , Kapgate Bharat P. , Maji Pradip K. , Bandyopadhyay Anasuya , Das Chayan
Published: March 2018

Functionalization of non-polar ethylene propylene diene monomer (EPDM) rubber by melt grafting of maleic anhydride (MA) and in situ incorporation of sol–gel derived silica in the MA grafted EPDM has been done to prepare EPDM/silica composites to use dual benefits of both the approaches, which results in adequate rubber–filler compatibility, good filler dispersion, and enhanced composite properties. Controlled growth of silica up to 25 parts per hundred rubber (phr) is carried out with the solution sol–gel process using tetraethoxysilane (TEOS) as a silica precursor. Mechanical and dynamical properties of the composites are found to improve consistently as silica content increases. Furthermore, treatment of maleic anhydride grafted EPDM by γ-aminopropyltrimethoxysilane (γ-APS) results in remarkable improvement in composite properties even at the same silica content. This is attributed to the generation of uniformly dispersed spherically shaped nanosilica throughout the rubber matrix as observed in a transmission electron microscopic (TEM) study. This contributes to enhanced crosslinking density and improved rubber–filler interaction. In fact, the reinforcement effect brought by in situ silica relative to unmodified in situ silica/EPDM composites is found to be much higher than that reported in recent work on EPDM/in situ silica composites even with higher silica loading. The mechanical, rheological, and dynamic mechanical behaviors of all the composites are evaluated and compared in detail.
The Impact of Training on Employees’ Performance: The Case of Banking Sector in Lesotho
Authors: Motlokoa Mamofokeng Eliza , Sekantsi Lira Peter , Monyolo Rammuso Paul
Published: March 2018

Human Resources Management literature regards training as the blood stream of any organization because the success of an organisation to achieve its objectives and goals heavily highly depends on its workforce. For this reason, organizations should invest in employees’ training in an effort to enhance their performance and that of an organisation. Nonetheless, some organizations regard training as unnecessary expenditure and always cut training budgets in an effort to improve their financial standing to the detriment of their employees’ welfare because that action incapacitate staff to adapt to the ever-changing working environment and uncertain conditions on account of, inter alia, rapid technological innovation and organizational change. This study employed stratified sampling technique to draw a sample of 171 employees from a population of 300 employees through self-administered questionnaire to examine the impact of training on employees’ performance, employee’s motivation and job-satisfaction in the banking sector in Lesotho. The findings of the study generally revealed that training not only increases employees’ performance but also positively affects employees’ motivation and job satisfaction within the banking sector in Lesotho. Therefore, the banking sector in Lesotho should regularly allocate resources for employees’ training based on identified skill gaps to sharpen employees’ skills, knowledge and abilities in order to capacitate them to cope with the ever-changing working environment and uncertain conditions and to improve their motivation and job-satisfaction.
Yield in eucalyptus slab for use in the obtainment of battens
Authors: Juizo Claudio Gumane Francisco , Carvalho Douglas Edson , Loiola Pedro Lício , Da Rocha Márcio Pereira , Kliztke Ricardo Jorge , Prata José Guilherme
Published: March 2018

The present work aimed to evaluate the yield in eucalyptus slabs for obtaining battens to be used as raw material in the production of higher added value products. For this purpose, 15 logs of E. grandis and 15 logs of E. saligna, which were separated into three diametric classes of five logs for each species, were used: diametric class 1 (25 - 32 cm), diametric class 2 (33- 39 cm) and diametric class 3 (> 40 cm). Afterwards, they were cubed and evaluated for their taper, and were deployed on a band saw. The slabs were removed to evaluate the quality, yield and yield of slabs obtained for each species studied. The obtained results indicated that a medium classification of the specific gravity obtained, with good dimensional stability of E. grandis and E. saligna wood. The taper of the logs and the yields observed were not significant in both species. However, the yields in slabs and yields in battens had a slight decrease by the increasing of the diameters of the logs. Thus, logs with greater yield in slabs had smaller yields in battens. Therefore, it is possible to use slabs for battens production mainly in the industries that process high amounts of logs.
Dendrochronology and growth of Copaifera langsdorffii wood in the vegetation dynamics of the Pirapitinga Ecological Station, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil
Authors: Carvalho Daniel Costa de , Pereira Marcos Gervasio Gervasio , Carmo Jair Figueiredo do , Pace José Henrique Camargo , Silva Leonardo Davi Silveira Augusto Baptista da , Latorraca João Vicente Figueiredo
Published: March 2018

This study aims to build a chronology of the growth rings of Copaifera langsdorffii (copaíba) in order to understand the dynamics of vegetation types that occur on a river island in the Cerrado biome. For this purpose, we selected 30 trees of copaíba established in a vegetation of Mata Seca Sempre-Verde in the Pirapitinga Ecological Station (EEP), state of Minas Gerais, Brazil. Two radial samples from each tree were collected by an auger. The samples were treated by mechanical polishing for better visualization of the growth rings, and consequently further delineation and measurement. Later, the width of the growth rings was verified in order to generate a master time series of the specie. To check the influence of meteorological factors, we used the Pearson correlation (p < 0.05). The results showed that the population of copaíba in the EEP presented dendrochronologyc potential, which was confirmed by the high values of wide growth rings correlation within and between trees. The dendrochronologyc analysis revealed that copaíba trees were already present before the dam filling, but with lower population density than today. It was also possible to infer that the development of the vegetation type Mata Seca Sempre-Verde occurred since the decade of the 1970. The average sensitivity was enough to consider the species sensitive to environmental variations. Precipitation and temperature only influenced positively the growth rings in the transition from dry to wet seasons. The results revealed information about the dynamics of the local vegetation, elucidating the changes that occurred in the environment in which the population of copaíba is established.
MODELAGEM GEOESTATÍSTICA DA ESTRUTURA ESPACIAL ARBÓREA E DOS ATRIBUTOS DO SOLO EM FLORESTA OMBRÓFILA MISTA
Authors: Roveda Marcelo , Figueiredo Filho Afonso , Pelissari Allan Libanio , Genú Aline Marques , Roik Mailson
Published: March 2018

Considerando a hipótese de que a geoestatística possibilita aprimorar o entendimento da variabilidade espacial das formações florestais naturais e de suas características edáficas, o objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar as relações espaciais, por meio da geoestatística, entre os atributos químicos e granulométricos do solo sobre o número de árvores e a área basal de um remanescente de Floresta Ombrófila Mista. O levantamento dos atributos do solo e da vegetação foram realizados em 200 unidades de amostra georreferenciadas de 25 m x 25 m. Em seguida, a geoestatística foi utilizada para modelar a continuidade espacial e a krigagem ordinária pontual foi aplicada para gerar os mapas temáticos. Por meio dos resultados obtidos, confirmou-se que a continuidade espacial dos atributos do solo, número de árvores e área basal são passíveis de ser modelada, ao passo que não foi observado similaridade espacial nos mapas de krigagem. Entretanto, ficou evidente que, entre as variáveis edáficas consideradas, o pH possui a maior relação espacial com as  variáveis da floresta.
Climatic suitability for Eucalyptus cloeziana cultivation in four Brazilian states
Authors: Lafetá Bruno Oliveira , Penido Tamires Mousslech Andrade , Machado Evandro Luiz Mendonça , Santana Reynaldo Campos , Vieira Diego Dos Santos
Published: March 2018

The objective of this work was to identify zones with climatic potential for Eucalyptus cloeziana cultivation in four Brazilian states (Bahia – BA, Mato Grosso do Sul – MS, Minas Gerais – MG e São Paulo – SP). 490 records of this species in Australia were obtained. Current prediction of the distribution of habitat suitability was based on climatic conditions recorded between 1960 and 1990. For the future projections of 2050, four scenarios were used: RCP 2.6 W/m2, RCP 4.5 W/m2, RCP 6.0 W/m2 and RCP 8.5 W/m2. MaxEnt was used in modeling, and only climatic information was used as predictor variables. The modeling was robust and presented high values of AUC (> 0.95). Annual precipitation and isothermal were the variables that contributed the most for the quality of the models. It was concluded that the Brazilian mesoregions of Itapetininga (SP), Litoral Sul Paulista (SP) and Zona da Mata (MG) presented the most climatically suitable sites for E. cloeziana cultivation. Climatic changes may restrict the distribution of suitable zones for E. cloeziana cultivation. The negative effect of global warming was more prominent in MG.
CARACTERIZAÇÃO ENERGÉTICA DA MADEIRA DE TRÊS MATERIAIS GENÉTICOS DE Eucalyptus sp.
Authors: Bersch Aline Patrícia , Brun Eleandro José , Pereira Flávia Alves , Silva Dimas Agostinho , De Barba Yan Rafael , Dorini Junior Jeferson Ricardo
Published: March 2018

Entre as características da madeira mais indicadas para geração de energia, estão: a massa específica, o poder calorífico e o teor de carbono fixo. O objetivo deste trabalho foi realizar a caracterização energética da madeira de três materiais genéticos de Eucalyptus sp.: clones H-13 e GFMO-27 e o híbrido E. pellita x E. tereticornis, plantados em área experimental em Dois Vizinhos, sudoeste do Paraná. Esses materiais foram escolhidos por se destacarem em incremento médio anual em volume aos cinco anos de idade entre quatorze materiais genéticos plantados em uma mesma área. Três árvores de cada um dos materiais genéticos foram abatidas e três discos de madeira de cada árvore foram retirados a 0%, 50% e 100% da altura comercial. Esses discos foram descascados e pesados. Posteriormente, determinou-se a massa específica básica (NBR 11941:2003), o poder calorífico (NBR 8633:1984), a análise química imediata (MB 15) e a energia disponível na biomassa. Os dados foram analisados através de análise de variância e teste de Tukey. Os valores de massa específica básica e teor de cinzas não apresentaram diferença estatística entre os materiais.  O valor de massa específica ficou entre 0,49 e 0,55 g/cm³ e o teor de cinzas entre 0,57 e 0,60%. O clone H-13 apresentou o maior valor de materiais voláteis entre os três materiais genéticos e, consequentemente, o menor valor de carbono fixo. O clone GFMO-27 apresentou maior valor médio de poder calorífico. Contudo, os valores de estimativa de energia disponível na madeira não apresentaram diferença estatística entre os materiais genéticos.
MODELAGEM LINEAR GENERALIZADA PARA DESCREVER O INCREMENTO EM ÁREA TRANSVERSAL DE ÁRVORES INDIVIDUAIS DE IMBUIA
Authors: Weber Veridiana Padoin , Finger Cesar Augusto Guimarães , Costa Emanuel Arnoni , Zimmermann Anna Paula , Longhi Regis Villanova
Published: March 2018

Modelos de crescimento em nível de árvores individuais são aplicados para a quantificação e descrição dos fatores que afetam o ritmo de crescimento das árvores. Nesse sentido, o presente estudo objetivou aplicar a abordagem de Modelos Lineares Generalizados (MLG) para descrever o incremento periódico anual em área transversal de árvores individuais de Ocotea porosa (Nees) Barroso em floresta natural mista e inequiânea a partir de medições de variáveis dendrométricas e morfométricas e de índices de competição. Na modelagem, avaliaram-se três tipos de distribuições aleatórias contínuas para a variável resposta: Normal, Gamma e Gaussiana Inversa; com diferentes funções de ligação: identidade (μ), logarítmica (ln μ) e de potência (μλ). O MLG com distribuição Gamma e função de ligação logarítmica apresentou as melhores estimativas, sendo o crescimento da espécie expresso pelo diâmetro, altura total, diâmetro de copa, relação h/d e pelo índice de competição de Lorimer. Essa metodologia permitiu predições não enviesadas, com maior acuracidade e realismo biológico na interpretação dos coeficientes de regressão, quando comparados aos métodos convencionais com transformação na variável dependente.
Diametric structure in a community of shrub-tree Caatinga, municipality of Floresta, state of Pernambuco, Brazil
Authors: Lima Robson Borges de , Ferreira Rinaldo Luiz Caraciolo , Da Silva José Antônio Aleixo , De Oliveira Cinthia Pereira , Da Silva Gilson Fernandes , Alves Júnior Francisco Tarcísio
Published: March 2018

This study aimed to analyze the diametric structure of the stand and of five species of highest importance value for a Caatinga area, located in the municipality of Floresta, state of Pernambuco, Brazil. The work was developed from 40 sample units of 400 m² each, systematically allocated. All individuals with tree circumference at the base (0.30 m) greater than or equal to 6 cm were measured. The "q" quotient of De Liocourt was used to verify discrepancies between recruitment rates and mortality. We reported that, for the studied area, the species Poincianella bracteosa(Tul.) L. P. Queiroz, Mimosa ophthalmocentra Mart. ex Benth., Aspidosperma pyrifolium Mart., Myracrodum urundeuva(Engl.) Fr. All., and Bauhinia cheilanta(Bong). Steud represented 77.25% of the total density sampled. The diametric distributions indicated that regeneration occurs continuously. Through the "q" quotient, it can be inferred that, for the study stand, Myracrodum urundeuva and Poincianella bracteosa, the individual’s mortality has been compensated by recruitment in different diameter classes. However, the diametrical structure for Mimosa ophthalmocentra, Aspidosperma pyrifolium, and Bauhinia cheilanta indicated problems of maintenance and development for these species.
Design of a framework for combating human trafficking and kidnapping using smart objects and Internet-of-things
Authors: O. C Akinyokun , K. G Akintola , G. B Iwasokun , C. O Angaye , S. A Arekete
Published: March 2018

The security problems arising from activities of terrorists, kidnappers and human traffickers in the world, at large, can be tackled using Information and Communication Technology (ICT) related approaches. This paper presents the framework of smart objects and Internet of Things (IoT) based system for achieving cost effective and time saving combat of human trafficking and kidnapping. The major components of the system are Sensor Processing Station (SPS), Media Server Station (MSS), Smart Engine Server (SES) and Digital Situation Room (DSR). The SPS is for signal sensing via a number of workstations equipped with video camera sensors, Radio Frequency Identification Card (RFID) tags to the Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers and body worn sensors while MSS will capture and store data from the sensor processing units on the cloud server. The SES will perform logical reasoning of the system such as motion detection, face recognition, position tracking and activities recognition, DSR will be used to monitor events in real-time and on-demand modes based on Internet Protocol version 6 (IPv6)-enabled communications. The work presents an integration of different technologies towards combating human trafficking and kidnapping with a view to enhance existing piecewise development.