Risk factors-adjusted performance and persistence during the post-subprime crisis period: evidence from Indian mutual fund industry
Authors: Kumar Sunil , Singh Mohinder 
Published: October 2024

Purpose

The main objective of the paper is to find evidence of abnormal returns and performance persistence of actively managed equity funds in the Indian context on an annual basis during the post-subprime crisis period between 2009 and 10 and 2019 and 2020.

Design/methodology/approach

The study is exploratory and empirical, used daily net asset value (NAV) of 180 equity funds for 10 years and applied the risk-adjusted, Jensen's (1968) single-factor, Fama and French's (1993) three-factor model and Carhart's (1997) four-factor model to evaluate the performance. The performance persistence has been tested using cross-section regression (Bollen and Busse, 2005), the non-parametric contingency approach, along with the robustness measure, i.e. Malkiel's (1995) Z-score, Brown and Goetzmann's (1995) cross-product ratio (CPR) and Kahn and Rudd's (1995) χ2 value.

Findings

The results show that the Indian equity funds are unable to generate abnormal returns, and the size, value and momentum strategies applied by the fund managers in generating abnormal returns do not work effectively. However, funds provide strong evidence of significant performance persistence on an annual basis in the short-term, mid-term and long-term periods. Both parametric as well as non-parametric tests provide identical evidence of persistence, and the performance persistence is independent of the choice of models, as all the models (i.e. two, three or four-factor models) provide significant evidence of persistence.

Research limitations/implications

Though the study is comprehensive and covered a longer period, there is a scope for future research by examining the influence of fund characteristics, fund rating and macroeconomic factors on performance and persistence. It can be extended over to a longer period covering the post-COVID-19 period, a larger sample size and a comparative study of Indian and foreign mutual funds (MFs).

Practical implications

The outcomes of this research paper can help wealth-maximizing investors in the identification of persistent equity funds and can apply the previous period’s performance information as a useful investment strategy to generate higher returns in the future. We believe that these outcomes will have significant ramifications for all MF stakeholders and policymakers, especially for the Indian industry in ensuring and establishing the credibility of MF managers, in providing better returns as well as to make MF investment more attractive to Indian retail investors.

Originality/value

Despite the exponential growth in the Indian MF industry, limited evidence is available on performance and persistence covering a large sample size during the post-sub-prime crisis period using different return models and parametric and non-parametric approaches. The study is based on the daily data set of a larger sample size representing all the Asset Management Company (AMC) and the longer period following the post-subprime crises, which affected capital flows significantly. Moreover, the application of all the measures enables us to understand performance persistence in a larger context.