A magyar állampénzügyi rendszer rezilienciája a COVID–19 járvány kapcsán
Authors: Lentner Csaba 
Published: December 2021

Összefoglaló. A COVID–19 járvány a magyar gazdaság teljesítményeit
és pénzügyi egyensúlyát is gyengítette, ám a korábbról stabil államháztartási
alapok következtében a negatív hatások csak átmenetinek vélelmezhetők.
Magyarország 2010–2019 között egy sikeres állampénzügyi reformot hajtott végre,
amely jó alapot ad a válság elleni védekezéshez. Ugyanakkor a járványválság még
erősebben ráirányítja a figyelmet a magyar nemzetgazdaság versenyképességének
erősebb javítására, az infláció fékezésére, a költségvetési egyensúly megfelelő
keretek között tartására, és a kis- és középvállalati szektor
mérethatékonyságának növelésére. A tanulmány bemutatja a válság alatti fiskális
és jegybanki intézkedések vázát, és egyúttal utal a válság utáni időszak
kihívásaira, amelyek a nemzetközi térből, s különösen a jegybanki politika
megváltozásából fakadnak.

Summary. The COVID-19 epidemic hit the position of the otherwise
strong Hungarian economy. We could see an economic downturn and financial
imbalance developed in the last one and half years. As in the recovery
(post-crisis) period of the 2010 decade, the crisis is being addressed with the
active involvement of the state and the central bank. However, in the course of
managing the crisis, it arises that on the new growth trajectory to be built
after the recovery period, the competitiveness aspects, especially in the small
and medium-sized enterprise category, which plays a major role in Hungary,
should be more efficient than in the previous decade. It is necessary to improve
the size efficiency, liquidity and capital efficiency of the SME sector by means
of fiscal regulation, and the allocation of state resources should be more
strongly linked to the requirements of export capacity and innovative business
conduct.

The decade after the 2007–2008 crisis – the previous recovery period – was
characterized by the weak enforcement of fiscal policies in regulating and
improving competitiveness, especially in Hungary, where change is essential.
After 2013, Hungarian monetary policy also caught up with the international
practice of quantitative easing, achieving significant results in improving both
the financial balance and economic growth. However, the previous quantitative
easing of the central bank, as well as the increase of budget expenditures on
epidemiological expenditures, investments, normative budget annual subsidies
from the European Union and subsidies from the European Reconstruction Fund, and
even investment loans from our Eastern economic partners, generates an
overheated economy, inflationary pressures, and external and balance of payments
deficits. Added to this is the wage dynamics of the population, and the
permanent and even increasing disbursement of family benefits during the
crisis.

All in all, in the 2020s we will face a new financial-debt crisis, unemployment
and labor shortage problems, the competitiveness problems of the small business
sector, culminating in the reorganization of the world economy, new
competitiveness aspects, it will be a rather complex task. Thus, the turn of
competitiveness that has essentially failed in the context of an abundance of
resources and consolidated macroeconomic conditions (2010-2019) must be
implemented “uphill”, it is only the time, will and opportunity to take its
first steps. But the main lesson of the crises caused by the epidemics (also) is
that the remaining economic entities have become stronger. And perhaps there is
a chance to avoid falling into the trap of medium development through a new
central bank policy that moderates inflation and truly enforces modernization
considerations, as well as improving financial positions and improving economic
positions (competitiveness).