bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Unusual Central Indian Drought of Summer Monsoon 2008: Role of Southern Tropical Indian Ocean Warming
Authors: Rao Suryachandra A. , Chaudhari Hemantkumar S. , Pokhrel Samir , Goswami B. N.
Published: May 2010

While many of the previous positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) years were associated with above (below)-normal monsoon rainfall over central (southern) India during summer monsoon months [June–September (JJAS)], the IOD event in 2008 is associated with below (above)-normal rainfall in many parts of central (southern peninsular) India. Because understanding such regional organization is a key for success in regional prediction, using different datasets and atmospheric model simulations, the reasons for this abnormal behavior of the monsoon in 2008 are explored. Compared to normal positive IOD events, sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall in the southern tropical Indian Ocean (STIO) in JJAS 2008 were abnormally high. Downwelling Rossby waves and oceanic heat advection played an important role in warming SST abnormally in the STIO. It was also found that the combined influence of a linear warming trend in the tropical Indian Ocean and warming associated with the IOD have resulted in abnormal warming of the STIO. This abnormal SST warming resulted in enhancement of convection in the southwest tropical Indian Ocean and forced anticyclonic circulation anomalies over the Bay of Bengal and central India, leading to suppressed rainfall over this region in JJAS 2008.

The above mechanism is tested by conducting several model sensitivity experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM). These experiments confirmed that the subsidence over central India and the Bay of Bengal was forced mainly by the anomalous warming in the STIO region driven by coupled ocean–atmosphere processes. This study provides the first evidence of combined Indian Ocean warming, associated with global warming, and IOD-related warming influence on Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The combined influence may force below-normal rainfall over central India by inducing strong convection in the STIO region. The conventional seesaw in convection between the Indian subcontinent and the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean may shift to the central equatorial Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal if the central Indian Ocean consistently warms in the global warming scenario.
Australian Monsoon Variability Driven by a Gill–Matsuno-Type Response to Central West Pacific Warming
Authors: Taschetto Andréa S. , Haarsma Reindert J. , Gupta Alexander Sen , Ummenhofer Caroline C. , Hill Khalia J. , England Matthew H.
Published: May 2010

The objective of this study is to investigate the mechanisms that cause the anomalous intensification of tropical Australian rainfall at the height of the monsoon during El Niño Modoki events. In such events, northwestern Australia tends to be wetter in January and February when the SST warming is displaced to the central west Pacific, the opposite response to that associated with a traditional El Niño. In addition, during the bounding months, that is, December and March, there is below-average rainfall induced by an anomalous Walker circulation. This behavior tends to narrow and intensify the annual rainfall cycle over northwestern Australia relative to the climatology, causing a delayed monsoonal onset and an earlier retreat over the region. Observational datasets and numerical experiments with a general circulation model are used to examine the atmospheric response to the central west Pacific SST warming. It is shown here that the increase of precipitation, particularly in February, is phased locked to the seasonal cycle when the intertropical convergence zone is displaced southward and the South Pacific convergence zone is strengthened. An interaction between the interannual SST variability associated with El Niño Modoki events and the evolution of the seasonal cycle intensifies deep convection in the central west Pacific, driving a Gill–Matsuno-type response to the diabatic heating. The westward-propagating disturbance associated with the Gill–Matsuno mechanism generates an anomalous cyclonic circulation over northwestern Australia, leading to convergence of moisture and increased precipitation. The Gill–Matsuno-type response overwhelms the subsidence of the anomalous Walker circulation associated with Modoki events over Australia during the peak of the monsoon.
Implications of a Decadal Climate Shift over East Asia in Winter: A Modeling Study
Authors: Hong Song-You , Yhang Yoo-Bin
Published: May 2010

This study investigates a decadal climate shift over East Asia in winter, focusing on the changes in hydrological cycle as well as large-scale circulation using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Regional Spectral Model (RSM). The RSM is forced by perfect boundary conditions for winter (December–February) from 1979 to 2007. Analyses for two separate periods (1979–87 and 1999–2007) are performed to investigate the regional climate model’s ability to simulate climate change in precipitation as well as large-scale circulation.

The RSM reproduces differences in large-scale features associated with winter climate change over East Asia when the winter monsoon is modulated on decadal time scales with its weakening pattern observed since the late 1980s. The model adequately reproduces a weakening of the Siberian high and shallowness of the Aleutian low in the lower troposphere and a weakened East Asian coastal trough and East Asian jet in the upper troposphere during 1999–2007, as compared to the first nine winters of 1979–87. Conversely, the decadal shift in precipitation is not well reproduced by the model. The model is capable of reproducing the power spectrum of daily precipitation with maxima at 8.5 days and 45 days in 1979–87, whereas widely spread peaks in 1999–2007 are not captured. The increase of precipitation due to parameterized convection is prominent. This study shows that the dynamical numerical model has a limited capability to reproduce the wintertime hydrological climate over East Asia associated with global warming in recent years.
Intercomparison of Daily Precipitation Statistics over the United States in Observations and in NCEP Reanalysis Products
Authors: Higgins R. W. , Kousky V. E. , Silva V. B. S. , Becker E. , Xie P.
Published: May 2010

A comparison of the statistics of daily precipitation over the conterminous United States is carried out using gridded station data and three generations of reanalysis products in use at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). The reanalysis products are the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis (Kalnay et al.), the NCEP–Department of Energy (DOE) reanalysis (Kanamitsu et al.), and the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) reanalysis (Saha et al.). Several simple measures are used to characterize relationships between the observations and the reanalysis products, including bias, precipitation probability, variance, and correlation. Seasonality is accounted for by examining these measures for four nonoverlapping seasons, using daily data in each case. Relationships between daily precipitation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase are also considered.

It is shown that the CFS reanalysis represents a clear improvement over the earlier reanalysis products, though significant biases remain. Comparisons of the error patterns in the reanalysis products provide a suitable basis for confident conversion of the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) operational monitoring and prediction products to the new generation of analyses based on CFS.
Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in Response to Global Warming*
Authors: Seager Richard , Naik Naomi , Vecchi Gabriel A.
Published: May 2010

The mechanisms of changes in the large-scale hydrological cycle projected by 15 models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 3 and used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fourth Assessment Report are analyzed by computing differences between 2046 and 2065 and 1961 and 2000. The contributions to changes in precipitation minus evaporation, P − E, caused thermodynamically by changes in specific humidity, dynamically by changes in circulation, and by changes in moisture transports by transient eddies are evaluated. The thermodynamic and dynamic contributions are further separated into advective and divergent components. The nonthermodynamic contributions are then related to changes in the mean and transient circulation. The projected change in P − E involves an intensification of the existing pattern of P − E with wet areas [the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and mid- to high latitudes] getting wetter and arid and semiarid regions of the subtropics getting drier. In addition, the subtropical dry zones expand poleward. The accentuation of the twentieth-century pattern of P − E is in part explained by increases in specific humidity via both advection and divergence terms. Weakening of the tropical divergent circulation partially opposes the thermodynamic contribution by creating a tendency to decreased P − E in the ITCZ and to increased P − E in the descending branches of the Walker and Hadley cells. The changing mean circulation also causes decreased P − E on the poleward flanks of the subtropics because the descending branch of the Hadley Cell expands and the midlatitude meridional circulation cell shifts poleward. Subtropical drying and poleward moistening are also contributed to by an increase in poleward moisture transport by transient eddies. The thermodynamic contribution to changing P − E, arising from increased specific humidity, is almost entirely accounted for by atmospheric warming under fixed relative humidity.
Vertical Structure of Kelvin Waves in the Indonesian Throughflow Exit Passages
Authors: Drushka Kyla , Sprintall Janet , Gille Sarah T. , Brodjonegoro Irsan
Published: May 2010

The subsurface structure of intraseasonal Kelvin waves in two Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) exit passages is observed and characterized using velocity and temperature data from the 2004–06 International Nusantara Stratification and Transport (INSTANT) project. Scatterometer winds are used to characterize forcing, and altimetric sea level anomaly (SLA) data are used to trace the pathways of Kelvin waves east from their generation region in the equatorial Indian Ocean to Sumatra, south along the Indonesian coast, and into the ITF region.

During the 3-yr INSTANT period, 40 intraseasonal Kelvin waves forced by winds over the central equatorial Indian Ocean caused strong transport anomalies in the ITF outflow passages. Of these events, 21 are classed as “downwelling” Kelvin waves, forced by westerly winds and linked to depressions in the thermocline and warm temperature anomalies in the ITF outflow passages; 19 were “upwelling” Kelvin waves, generated by easterly wind events and linked to shoaling of the thermocline and cool temperature anomalies in the ITF. Both downwelling and upwelling Kelvin waves have similar vertical structures in the ITF outflow passages, with strong transport anomalies over all depths and a distinctive upward tilt to the phase that indicates downward energy propagation. A linear wind-forced model shows that the first two baroclinic modes account for most of the intraseasonal variance in the ITF outflow passages associated with Kelvin waves and highlights the importance of winds both in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean and along the coast of Sumatra and Java for exciting Kelvin waves.

Using SLA as a proxy for Kelvin wave energy shows that 37% ± 9% of the incoming Kelvin wave energy from the Indian Ocean bypasses the gap in the coastal waveguide at Lombok Strait and continues eastward. Of the energy that continues eastward downstream of Lombok Strait, the Kelvin waves are split by Sumba Island, with roughly equal energy going north and south to enter the Savu Sea.
A Simple Parameterization of Turbulent Tidal Mixing near Supercritical Topography
Authors: Klymak Jody M. , Legg Sonya , Pinkel Robert
Published: May 2010

A simple parameterization for tidal dissipation near supercritical topography, designed to be applied at deep midocean ridges, is presented. In this parameterization, radiation of internal tides is quantified using a linear knife-edge model. Vertical internal wave modes that have nonrotating phase speeds slower than the tidal advection speed are assumed to dissipate locally, primarily because of hydraulic effects near the ridge crest. Evidence for high modes being dissipated is given in idealized numerical models of tidal flow over a Gaussian ridge. These idealized models also give guidance for where in the water column the predicted dissipation should be placed. The dissipation recipe holds if the Coriolis frequency f is varied, as long as hN/W ≫ f, where N is the stratification, h is the topographic height, and W is a width scale. This parameterization is not applicable to shallower topography, which has significantly more dissipation because near-critical processes dominate the observed turbulence. The parameterization compares well against simulations of tidal dissipation at the Kauai ridge but predicts less dissipation than estimated from observations of the full Hawaiian ridge, perhaps because of unparameterized wave–wave interactions.
Why Can Wind Delay the Shedding of Loop Current Eddies?
Authors: Chang Y.-L. , Oey L.-Y.
Published: May 2010

It is first shown that wind in the Gulf of Mexico can delay the shedding of Loop Current eddies. A time-dependent, three-dimensional numerical experiment forced by a spatially and temporally constant westward wind stress within the Gulf is analyzed and then is compared with an otherwise identical no-wind run, and the result is confirmed with reduced-gravity experiments. It is shown that the wind produces westward transports over the northern and southern shelves of the Gulf, convergence in the west, and a returned (i.e., eastward) upper-layer flow over the deep central basin toward the Loop Current. The theory from T. Pichevin and D. Nof is then used to explain that the returned flow constitutes a zonal momentum flux that delays eddy shedding. Mass-balance analysis shows that wind also forces larger Loop Current and rings (because the delayed shedding allows more mass to be accumulated in them) and produces more efficient mass exchange between the Gulf and the Caribbean Sea. It is shown that eddies alone (without wind stress curl) can force a boundary current and downward flow in the western Gulf and a corresponding deep flow from the western Gulf to the eastern Gulf.
Underway and Moored Methods for Improving Accuracy in Measurement of Spectral Particulate Absorption and Attenuation
Authors: Slade Wayne H. , Boss Emmanuel , Dall’Olmo Giorgio , Langner M. Rois , Loftin James , Behrenfeld Michael J. , Roesler Collin , Westberry Toby K.
Published: May 2010

Optical sensors have distinct advantages when used in ocean observatories, autonomous platforms, and on vessels of opportunity, because of their high-frequency measurements, low power consumption, and the numerous established relationships between optical measurements and biogeochemical variables. However, the issues of biofouling and instrument stability over time remain complicating factors when optical instruments are used over periods longer than several days. Here, a method for obtaining calibration-independent measurements of spectral particle absorption and attenuation is presented. Flow-through optical instrumentation is routinely diverted through a large–surface area 0.2-μm cartridge filter, allowing for the calculation of particle optical properties by differencing temporally adjacent filtered and whole water samples. This approach yields measurements that are independent of drift in instrument calibration. The method has advantages not only for coastally moored deployments, but also for applications in optically clear waters where uncertainties in instrument calibration can be a significant part of the signal measured. The differencing technique is demonstrated using WET Labs (Philomath, Oregon) ac-9 and ac-s multi- and hyperspectral absorption and attenuation meters. For the ac-s sensor, a correction scheme is discussed that utilizes the spectral shape of water absorption in the near-infrared to improve the accuracy of temperature and scattering-corrected spectra. Flow-through particulate absorption measurements are compared with discrete filter-pad measurements and are found to agree well (R2 = 0.77; rmse = 0.0174 m−1).
Impact of the Madden–Julian Oscillation on Wintertime Precipitation in Canada
Authors: Lin Hai , Brunet Gilbert , Mo Ruping
Published: May 2010

Based on the adjusted daily total precipitation data at Canadian stations and the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data during the most recent 30 Northern Hemisphere winters, the connection between the tropical convection of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the intraseasonal variability of precipitation in Canada is investigated. The dominant convection patterns associated with the MJO are represented by the two leading modes of the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis that is applied to the pentad outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) in the equatorial Indian Ocean and western Pacific. The first EOF mode is characterized by a single convection center near the Maritime Continent, whereas the second EOF has an east–west dipole structure with enhanced precipitation over the Indian Ocean and reduced convective activity over the tropical western Pacific. Lagged regression analysis reveals significant precipitation anomalies in Canada associated with the tropical convection of the MJO. Above-normal precipitation starts to occur in the west coast of Canada one pentad after a positive EOF2 phase. In the next two pentads, positive precipitation anomalies extend to a large area of south Canada. At the same time, the northeast region experiences reduced precipitation. For strong MJO events when the principal component of EOF2 exceeds its standard deviation, the precipitation anomaly in the west coast of Canada can reach about 20%–30% of its standard deviation of pentad-to-pentad variability. A linearized global primitive equation model is utilized to assess the cause of the intraseasonal variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics and its influence on North American weather associated with the tropical heating of the MJO.
Preliminary Study of California Wintertime Model Wet Bias
Authors: Chin Hung-Neng S. , Caldwell Peter M. , Bader David C.
Published: May 2010

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 3.0.1 is used in both short-range (days) and long-range (years) simulations to explore the California wintertime model wet bias. California is divided into four regions (the coast, central valley, mountains, and Southern California) for validation. Three sets of gridded surface observations are used to evaluate the impact of measurement uncertainty on the model wet bias. Short-range simulations are driven by the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data and designed to test the sensitivity of model physics and grid resolution to the wet bias using eight winter storms chosen from four major types of large-scale conditions: the Pineapple Express, El Niño, La Niña, and synoptic cyclones. Control simulations are conducted with 12-km grid spacing (low resolution) but additional experiments are performed at 2-km (high) resolution to assess the robustness of microphysics and cumulus parameterizations to resolution changes. Additionally, long-range simulations driven by both NARR and general circulation model (GCM) data are performed at low resolution to gauge the impact of the GCM forcing on the model wet bias.

These short- and long-range simulations show that low-resolution runs tend to underpredict precipitation in the coast region and overpredict it elsewhere in California. The sensitivity test of WRF physics in short-range simulations indicates that model precipitation depends most strongly on the microphysics scheme, though convective parameterization is also important, particularly near the coast. In contrast, high-resolution (2 km) simulation increases model precipitation in all regions. As a result, it improves the forecast bias in the coast region while it downgrades the model performance in the other regions. It is also found that the choice of validation dataset has a significant impact on the model wet bias of both short- and long-range simulations. However, this impact in long-range simulations appears to be a secondary contribution as compared to its counterpart from the GCM forcing.
Tracking and Verification of East Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Genesis in the NCEP Global Ensemble: Case Studies during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses
Authors: Snyder Andrew D. , Pu Zhaoxia , Zhu Yuejian
Published: May 2010

This study evaluates the performance of the NCEP global ensemble forecast system in predicting the genesis and evolution of five named tropical cyclones and two unnamed nondeveloping tropical systems during the NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses (NAMMA) between August and September 2006. The overall probabilities of the ensemble forecasts of tropical cyclone genesis are verified relative to a genesis time defined to be the first designation of the tropical depression from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Additional comparisons are also made with high-resolution deterministic forecasts from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS). It is found that the ensemble forecasts have high probabilities of genesis for the three strong storms that formed from African easterly waves, but failed to accurately predict the pregenesis phase of two weaker storms that formed farther west in the Atlantic Ocean. The overall accuracy for the genesis forecasts is above 50% for the ensemble forecasts initialized in the pregenesis phase. The forecast uncertainty decreases with the reduction of the forecast lead time. The probability of tropical cyclone genesis reaches nearly 90% and 100% for the ensemble forecasts initialized near and in the postgenesis phase, respectively. Significant improvements in the track forecasts are found in the ensemble forecasts initialized in the postgenesis phase, possibly because of the implementation of the NCEP storm relocation scheme, which provides an accurate initial storm position for all ensemble members. Even with coarser resolution (T126L28 for the ensemble versus T384L64 for the GFS), the overall performance of the ensemble in predicting tropical cyclone genesis is compatible with the high-resolution deterministic GFS. In addition, false alarm rates for nondeveloping waves were low in both the GFS and ensemble forecasts.
In the Name of Equality? The Missing Intersection in Canadian Feminists’ Legal Mobilization Against Multiculturalism
Authors: Lépinard Eléonore
Published: May 2010

In Canada, women’s rights organizations have successfully mobilized the law to foster gender equality. In doing so, they have been constrained by legal understandings of equality and discrimination, which have shaped their strategies to seek justice. In return, their mobilization, mainly through litigation, has contributed to craft or to alter legal categories (such as “substantive equality,” “women,” “sexual harassment,” etc.), which in turn sustain their identities and their interests. However, claims made in the name of gender equality raise two issues: They tend to overlook the intersection of gender with other grounds of discrimination such as religion or race/ethnicity; and they tend to conflict with multiculturalism, a value enshrined in Canadian law. The recent decision taken by the province of Ontario to ban religious arbitration for family matters offers an illuminating case study of this tension between gender equality and religious rights in the Canadian context. This article analyzes women’s rights activists’ legal understandings of gender equality and religious/ethnic discrimination to explain how these representations have influenced women’s mobilization against religious arbitration in Ontario. Bringing together the insights developed by critical legal studies about intersectionality and the study of legal mobilization, this articles explores through a concrete example the tension between feminism and multiculturalism.
Investigating Contextual Variability in Mode Choice in Chicago Using a Hierarchical Mixed Logit Model
Authors: Liang Long  , Jie Lin  , Proussaloglou Kimon
Published: May 2010

In this paper, a hierarchical random-coefficient mixed logit model is applied to quantify variability in commuters’ mode choice in the Chicago metropolitan area, especially concerning the contextual variability by the traits of census tract of residence. It is found that individual mode choice behaviour varies considerably across residential locations. Moreover, the contextual effects are found to modify the marginal utility of mode choice. Especially, in-vehicle travel time and gasoline cost are significant covariates of census tract traits (such as percentage of blue-collar residents, ethnicity). Furthermore, random variation is present even after both contextual and individual traits are controlled for, suggesting intrinsic randomness in individual mode choice. The hierarchical structure of quantifying contextual variability proves to be a useful tool in capturing intrinsic heterogeneity in mode choice. The study findings have important implications for integrated land use and transport planning especially at the geographical levels below that of the region.
On Becker’s Studies of Marijuana Use as an Example of Analytic Induction
Authors: Hammersley Martyn
Published: May 2010

Analytic induction (AI) is an interpretation of scientific method that emerged in early twentieth-century sociology and still has some influence today. Among the studies often cited as examples are Becker’s articles on marijuana use. While these have been given less attention than the work of Lindesmith on opiate addiction and Cressey on financial trust violation, Becker’s work has distinctive features. Furthermore, it raises some important and interesting issues that relate not only to AI but to social scientific explanation more generally. These concern, for example, the presence and nature of causal systems in the social world, the relationship between historical and generalizing approaches, the character and role of social scientific theories, and how they are generated. In this article Becker’s research is examined in detail, and these issues explored through comparisons with the work of Lindesmith and Cressey.
‘Feeling sad and useless’: an investigation into personal acceptance of disability and its association with depression following stroke
Authors: Townend Ellen , Tinson Deborah , Kwan Joseph , Sharpe Michael
Published: May 2010

Objectives: To study the association of acceptance of disability with depression following stroke and its ability to predict depression at follow-up.

Design: A prospective cohort mixed (quantitative and qualitative) design was used.

Setting and subjects: Patients admitted to a stroke unit were consecutively recruited. Eighty-nine participated at one month and 81 were followed up nine months post stroke.

Main measures: Depressive disorder was assessed using a structured clinical interview. Disability and acceptance of disability were measured using self-report scales. At one month post stroke, 60 consecutive participants also participated in open-ended interviews exploring their individual concerns about having had a stroke and their responses were analysed qualitatively.

Results: One-third of participants were found to have depression (29/89; 33% at one month and 24/81; 30% at nine months). Non-acceptance of disability remained associated with depression after controlling for age, gender, original stroke severity and current disability at one month (odds ratio (OR) = 1.27, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.09—1.47) and nine months (OR = 1.46, 95% CI 1.22—1.75). Also, non-acceptance of disability measured at one month independently predicted depression measured at nine months (OR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.05—1.35). The qualitative findings illustrated a self-reproachful element to non-acceptance of disability. Patients with depression often said that they ‘should still’ be capable and sometimes referred to themselves as ‘useless’; whereas patients who were not depressed commonly reported having accepted stroke-related disability.

Conclusions: These finding suggest that personal beliefs about accepting disability are associated with and predict emotional adaptation following stroke.
Do Icon Arrays Help Reduce Denominator Neglect?
Authors: Garcia-Retamero Rocio , Galesic Mirta , Gigerenzer Gerd
Published: May 2010

Background and Objective. Denominator neglect is the focus on the number of times a target event has happened (e.g., the number of treated and nontreated patients who die) without considering the overall number of opportunities for it to happen (e.g., the overall number of treated and nontreated patients). In 2 studies, we addressed the effect of denominator neglect in problems involving treatment risk reduction where samples of treated and non-treated patients and the relative risk reduction were of different sizes. We also tested whether using icon arrays helps people take these different sample sizes into account. We especially focused on older adults, who are often more disadvantaged when making decisions about their health. Design. Study 1 was conducted on a laboratory sample using a within-subjects design; study 2 was conducted on a nonstudent sample interviewed through the Web using a between-subjects design. Outcome Measures. Accuracy of understanding risk reduction. Results. Participants often paid too much attention to numerators and insufficient attention to denominators when numerical information about treatment risk reduction was provided. Adding icon arrays to the numerical information, however, drew participants’ attention to the denominators and helped them make more accurate assessments of treatment risk reduction. Icon arrays were equally helpful to younger and older adults. Conclusions. Building on previous research showing that problems with understanding numerical information often do not reside in the mind but in the representation of the problem, the results show that icon arrays are an effective method of eliminating denominator neglect.
Stamping Out Fires! Controlling Smallpox with Targeted Mass Vaccination
Authors: Egan Joseph R. , Hall Ian M. , Leach Steve
Published: May 2010

Background. More than 30 years have now passed since the last naturally occurring case of smallpox; however, the variola virus still exists in at least 2 locations. The possibility that any clandestine stocks could be used for bioterrorism is a continuing concern for the public health community. Objective. Mathematical modeling is used to assess the impact of mass vaccination following a smallpox release when either standard public health controls are failing or political/public opinion is urging more comprehensive methods. Two mass vaccination strategies are considered: a blanket nationwide campaign v. an approach targeted only at those geographic areas that experience smallpox cases. The study evaluates which intervention strategy results in the fewest combined disease and vaccine-related deaths. Results. Outbreaks that go unnoticed until up to 50 cases have occurred are optimally controlled with targeted mass vaccination of the affected administrative districts in the majority of scenarios considered. The number of people vaccinated is approximately two thirds fewer than when implementing a nationwide campaign. Similar results arise when contact tracing is either highly unsuccessful or reduced in favor of reallocating limited resources for a policy of mass vaccination. Conclusions. Reactive nationwide mass vaccination remains a suboptimal strategy for controlling an expanding smallpox outbreak in all but the most extreme circumstances. Rather, targeted mass vaccination of affected areas is likely to result in fewer deaths. The vaccines administered are also likely to be much fewer because they would probably be distributed to a much smaller number of districts, thus relieving pressure on potentially stretched public health systems.
The Impact of a Novel Computer-Based Decision Aid on Shared Decision Making for Colorectal Cancer Screening
Authors: Schroy Paul C. , Emmons Karen , Peters Ellen , Glick Julie T. , Robinson Patricia A. , Lydotes Maria A. , Mylvanaman Shamini , Evans Stephen , Chaisson Christine , Pignone Michael , Prout Marianne , Davidson Peter , Heeren Timothy C.
Published: May 2010

Background. Eliciting patients’ preferences within a framework of shared decision making (SDM) has been advocated as a strategy for increasing colorectal cancer (CRC) screening adherence. Our objective was to assess the effectiveness of a novel decision aid on SDM in the primary care setting. Methods. An interactive, computer-based decision aid for CRC screening was developed and evaluated within the context of a randomized controlled trial. A total of 665 average-risk patients (mean age, 57 years; 60% female; 63% black, 6% Hispanic) were allocated to 1 of 2 intervention arms (decision aid alone, decision aid plus personalized risk assessment) or a control arm. The interventions were delivered just prior to a scheduled primary care visit. Outcome measures (patient preferences, knowledge, satisfaction with the decision-making process [SDMP], concordance between patient preference and test ordered, and intentions) were evaluated using prestudy/poststudy visit questionnaires and electronic scheduling. Results. Overall, 95% of patients in the intervention arms identified a preferred screening option based on values placed on individual test features. Mean cumulative knowledge, SDMP, and intention scores were significantly higher for both intervention groups compared with the control group. Concordance between patient preference and test ordered was 59%. Patients who preferred colonoscopy were more likely to have a test ordered than those who preferred an alternative option (83% v. 70%; P < 0.01). Intention scores were significantly higher when the test ordered reflected patient preferences. Conclusions. Our interactive computer-based decision aid facilitates SDM, but overall effectiveness is determined by the extent to which providers comply with patient preferences.
Addressing the Citizenship and Democratic Deficits: The Potential of Deliberative Democracy for Public Administration
Authors: Nabatchi Tina
Published: May 2010

This article reviews and synthesizes diverse streams of literature to assess the potential of deliberative democracy for American public administration. It asserts that the field should refocus its attention on the role of citizens in the work of government to help address the pervasive citizenship and democratic deficits in the United States. American public administration has an obligation to address these deficits because (a) it is required to do so by democratic ethos, (b) it has contributed to the deficits with its widespread embrace of bureaucratic ethos, and (c) it must find ways to effectively engage citizens within modern network and collaborative governance structures. This article identifies deliberative democracy as one potential method to help fulfill these obligations and explains how deliberative processes may help address the deficit problems. The article concludes by identifying a preliminary research agenda for exploring the potential of deliberative democracy for public administration.
Thinking Harder About Outcomes for Collaborative Governance Arrangements
Authors: Rogers Ellen , Weber Edward P.
Published: May 2010

In recent years, a growing number of scholars have urged greater intellectual effort regarding the outcomes, or impacts, being produced, or not produced by collaborative governance arrangements. Some progress has been made with “process” and “social” outcomes, outcomes affecting systemic collaborative capacity, the identification of second- and third-order consequences, and in refining approaches to incorporating and measuring real world environmental improvements. But what about other creative, important, and potentially useful governance outcomes that may well be unique to collaborative governance arrangements? Are we measuring all of the important things? We put this hypothesis to the test by examining four successful cases of collaborative governance in four Western states. The research, by discovering and developing three new types of governance outcomes—enhancing agency resources, developing and transferring technology, and going beyond compliance—suggests that our current frameworks for thinking about and measuring outcomes produced by collaborative governance arrangements are necessarily incomplete.
Curbing Corruption Through Social Welfare Reform? The Effects of Mexico’s Conditional Cash Transfer Program on Good Government
Authors: Grimes Marcia , Wängnerud Lena
Published: May 2010

Conditional cash transfer programs, an innovation in social welfare administration, have received considerable acclaim as a means of enhancing human capital and reducing leakage of public resources through corruption. While numerous studies examine the effects of the program on human capital indicators in Mexico and various other countries that have adopted the approach, little is known about the effects of these programs on levels of corruption and on political life more generally. Using data from Transparency International Mexico, the Federal Register of Civil Society Organizations, and the national census, this paper analyzes whether conditional cash transfers have any bearing on corruption but also on two other aspects of political life argued to affect government probity in the long term: the density of civil society organizations and the empowerment of women as indicated by levels of active involvement in civil society. The conclusions are encouraging with respect to reducing corruption but rather dismal regarding the effects on civil society and the empowerment of women.
Monastic Governance: Forgotten Prospects for Public Institutions
Authors: Inauen Emil , Rost Katja , Frey Bruno S. , Homberg Fabian , Osterloh Margit
Published: May 2010

To overcome agency problems, public sector reforms started to introduce businesslike incentive structures to motivate public officials. By neglecting internal behavioral incentives, however, these reforms often do not reach their stated goals. This research analyzes the governance structure of Benedictine monasteries to gain new insights into solving agency problems in public institutions. A comparison is useful because members of both organizational forms, public organizations and monasteries, see themselves as responsible participants in their community and claim to serve the public good. This research studies monastic governance from an economic perspective. Benedictine monasteries in Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria, and German-speaking Switzerland have an average lifetime of almost 500 years, and only a quarter of them broke up because of agency problems. The authors argue that they were able to survive for centuries because of an appropriate governance structure, relying strongly on the intrinsic motivation of the members and internal control mechanisms. This governance approach differs in several aspects from current public sector reforms.
Tissue and Cell Tropism of African Horse Sickness Virus Demonstrated by Immunoperoxidase Labeling in Natural and Experimental Infection in Horses in South Africa
Authors: Clift S. J. , Penrith M.-L.
Published: May 2010

Tissues from 196 experimental and confirmed natural cases of African horse sickness (all 9 serotypes) were examined with a standardized and validated immunohistochemical assay for detection of the causative virus. The study confirmed that heart and lung are the main target tissues for African horse sickness virus (across all serotypes), followed closely by spleen. It also indicated that microvascular endothelial cells and monocyte–macrophages are the main target cells for virus replication. The importance of monocytes as target cells was emphasized, with relatively few tissue macrophages containing antigen in the lung and spleen, respectively. The results were largely in agreement with those of previous studies, but the large number of cases examined permitted more precise description of the location and distribution of antigen in different tissues. Comparison with descriptions of tissue and cell tropism of other orbiviruses indicated similarity with African horse sickness. Immunohistochemistry was shown to be a useful and consistent technique for demonstrating target cells, but the difficulty of identifying cell types—in particular, different types of monocyte–macrophages—is a limitation.
A simplified approach for slope stability analysis of uncontrolled waste dumps
Authors: Turer Dilek , Turer Ahmet
Published: May 2010

Slope stability analysis of municipal solid waste has always been problematic because of the heterogeneous nature of the waste materials. The requirement for large testing equipment in order to obtain representative samples has identified the need for simplified approaches to obtain the unit weight and shear strength parameters of the waste. In the present study, two of the most recently published approaches for determining the unit weight and shear strength parameters of the waste have been incorporated into a slope stability analysis using the Bishop method to prepare slope stability charts. The slope stability charts were prepared for uncontrolled waste dumps having no liner and leachate collection systems with pore pressure ratios of 0, 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4 and 0.5, considering the most critical slip surface passing through the toe of the slope. As the proposed slope stability charts were prepared by considering the change in unit weight as a function of height, they reflect field conditions better than accepting a constant unit weight approach in the stability analysis. They also streamline the selection of slope or height as a function of the desired factor of safety.
Experimental testing of hot mix asphalt mixture made of recycled aggregates
Authors: Rafi Muhammad Masood , Qadir Adnan , Siddiqui Salman Hameed
Published: May 2010

The migration of population towards big cities generates rapid construction activities. These activities not only put pressure on natural resources but also produce construction, renovation and demolition waste. There is an urgent need to find out ways to handle this waste owing to growing environmental concerns. This can reduce pressure on natural resources as well. This paper presents the results of experimental studies which were carried out on hot mix asphalt mixture samples. These samples were manufactured by adding recycled aggregates (RA) with natural crushed stone aggregates (CSA). Three levels of addition of RA were considered in the presented studies. RA were obtained from both the concrete waste of construction, renovation and demolition activities and reclaimed asphalt pavement. Separate samples were manufactured with the coarse and fine aggregate fractions of both types of RA. Samples made with CSA were used as control specimens. The samples were prepared and tested using the Marshall method. The performance of the samples was investigated in terms of density-void and stability/flow analysis and was compared with the performance criteria as given by National Highway Authority for wearing course material in Pakistan. Based on this data optimum asphalt contents were determined. All the samples made by adding up to 50% RA conform to the specification requirements of wearing course material as given by National Highway Authority in terms of optimum asphalt contents, voids in mineral aggregates and stability/flow. A statistical analysis of variation of these samples confirmed that addition is also possible statistically.
Review Article: Feasibility study of a V-shaped pipe for passive aeration composting
Authors: Ogunwande Gbolabo A
Published: May 2010

A V-shaped (Vs) pipe was improvised for composting of chicken litter in passive aeration piles. Three piles, equipped with horizontal (Ho), vertical (Ve) and Vs pipes were set up. The three treatments were replicated thrice. The effects of the aeration pipe on the physico-chemical properties of chicken litter and air distribution within the composting piles were investigated during composting. The properties monitored were temperature, pH, electrical conductivity, moisture content, total carbon, total nitrogen, total phosphorus and carbon-to-nitrogen ratio. Moisture level in the piles was replenished fortnightly to 60% during composting. The results of the study showed that all the piles attained the optimum temperature range (40-65°C) for effective composting and satisfied the requirements for sanitation. The non-significant ( p > 0.05) temperature difference within the piles with Ve and Vs pipes indicated that these pipes were effective for uniform air distribution within the pile. The aeration pipe had significant ( p ≤ 0.05) effect on pile temperature, pre-replenishment moisture content, pH and total phosphorus. In conclusion, the study showed that the Vs pipe is feasible and effective for passive aeration composting.
What Season Is It Anyway? Circadian Tracking vs. Photoperiodic Anticipation in Insects
Authors: Bradshaw William E. , Holzapfel Christina M.
Published: May 2010

The daily rhythm of 24 h and the annual rhythm of 12 mo constitute the 2 major, highly predictable rhythms of the biosphere. The internal circadian clock enables organisms to track daily changes in their environment; the photoperiodic timer, alone or in concert with a circannual clock, enables organisms to anticipate and prepare in advance for seasonal changes in their environment. The circadian clock entrains to dawn and dusk and tracks light and temperature on a day-to-day basis, while the photoperiodic timer serves as a long-term, physiological go/no-go switch that commits an animal to development, reproduction, dormancy, or migration on a seasonal or even lifetime basis. In 1936, Erwin Bünning proposed that circadian rhythms formed the basis ( Grundlage) for photoperiodic response to day length. Historical inertia generated by correlative evidence from early physiological studies and a proliferating number of descriptive models has resulted in the widespread assumption that the circadian clock constitutes the necessary, causal basis of photoperiodism in general. This historical inertia has also restricted the search for genes involved in insect photoperiodism to genes central to the circadian clock in Drosophila and has led investigators to conclude that any behavior, process, or gene expression that varies with day length represents photoperiodism or a gene involved in photoperiodism. The authors discuss how blinders imposed by the circadian imperative have retarded progress toward identifying the genetic basis of photoperiodism and how the insights gained from geographic variation in photoperiodic response have been used to show the independent evolution of the circadian clock and photoperiodism. When geographic variation is found in circadian genes, the most immediate and parsimonious search for adaptive significance should be in circadian function, not in extrapolation to photoperiodism. Finally, the authors propose that circadian-unbiased, forward genetic approaches should be used to identify genes involved in photoperiodism within extant populations and among populations over evolutionary time.
Fluorescence/Luminescence Circadian Imaging of Complex Tissues at Single-Cell Resolution
Authors: Sellix Michael T. , Currie Jake , Menaker Michael , Wijnen Herman
Published: May 2010

The use of luciferase reporter genes together with luminescence detection has enabled high frequency monitoring of molecular circadian clock function in living tissues. With the help of an intensified CCD camera combined with an inverted epifluorescence microscope, the authors have established a new imaging strategy that makes use of transgenic cell type-specific expression of fluorescent proteins to identify cells of interest for subsequent circadian luminescence recording at single-cell resolution.