bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Global Modeling of Single Screw Extrusion with Slip Effects
Authors: Lewandowski A. , Wilczyński K.
Published: March 2019

An extensive study is presented on the polymer melt flow with slip effects in a single screw extrusion process. Fully three-dimensional non-Newtonian FEM computations are performed to design the screw pumping characteristics and the die characteristics which may be implemented into the composite model of the process. ANSYS Polyflow software is applied to model the melt flow in the extruder. An analysis is performed for the flow of polymers with slip effects both in the screw (on the screw and barrel surfaces) and in the die. Screw pumping characteristics and die characteristics are calculated and modeled for various power law indices, and various slipping parameters. The effect of slipping on extruder operation is discussed.
Thermomechanical Degradation of Polyetherimide (PEI) by Friction-Based Joining and the Effects on Quasi-Static Mechanical Strength of Hybrid Joints
Authors: Sônego M. , Abibe A. B. , Canevarolo S. V. , Bettini S. H. P. , dos Santos J. F. , Canto L. B. , Amancio-Filho S. T.
Published: March 2019

This study investigated quantitatively the thermomechanical degradation of polyetherimide (PEI) due to Friction-based Injection Clinching Joining (F-ICJ) and the effects on the mechanical strength of hybrid joints with aluminum. PEI samples extracted from process-affected regions of the joints were characterized in terms of their molecular weight distribution (MWD) and glass transition temperature (Tg), while mechanical strength of the joints was evaluated by cross tensile testing. PEI samples produced by the most severe joining condition showed decrease of 37 % of number-average molecular weight (Mn) and 17 % of weight-average molecular weight (Mw), while polydispersity index (Mw/Mn) increased 33 % as compared with as-received polymer. The chain scission distribution function (CSDF) indicated non-random multiple scissions as the main degradation mechanism of PEI due to F-ICJ. From the dependence of Tg with Mn the parameters of the Fox-Flory equation for PEI were obtained. A fractional factorial design of experiments was adopted to analyze the influence of the process parameters on the polymer degradation, based on Tg values. High level of PEI degradation and microstructural defects caused by high energy inputs have combined negative effect on the ultimate cross tensile force and displacement of joints. In general, these results can contribute to the knowledge of thermomechanical degradation of PEI and help with the optimization of F-ICJ.
Analysis of a Single-Screw Extruder with a Grooved Plasticizing Barrel – Experimental Investigation
Authors: Kettemann J. , Avila-Alfaro J. A. , Bonten C.
Published: March 2019

In the field of extrusion, a very promising high performance extruder was introduced to the European plastics industry in 1999. This new type of single-screw extruder combines a grooved plasticizing barrel with a barrier screw. Compared to conventional extrusion systems, these extruders have by far a higher output and product quality among other advantages such as lower processing costs and lower energy consumption. In the past, both Newtonian and non-Newtonian models were developed to calculate and predict the melting rate along the flow channel. The aim of this paper is to present experimental investigations on the processes within the melting zone of a single-screw extruder with a grooved plasticizing barrel. To visualize the melting mechanisms, screw extraction experiments as well as dynamic pressure measurements were performed. By means of screw extraction experiments a solid bed was clearly identified only in the solid channel and a melt pool only in the melt channel. Analysis of the dynamic pressure signals also showed the same behavior and therefore allowed in-line characterization of the melting process. Thus, theoretical concepts about the melting mechanisms could be confirmed experimentally.
Tonal placement in Tashlhiyt: How an intonation system accommodates to adverse phonological environments
Authors: Roettger Timo Benjamin
Published: March 2019

In most languages, words contain vowels, elements of high intensity with rich harmonic structure, enabling the perceptual retrieval of pitch. By contrast, in Tashlhiyt, a Berber language, words can be composed entirely of voiceless segments. When an utterance consists of such words, the phonetic opportunity for the execution of intonational pitch movements is exceptionally limited. This book explores in a series of production and perception experiments how these typologically rare phonotactic patterns interact with intonational aspects of linguistic structure. It turns out that Tashlhiyt allows for a tremendously flexible placement of tonal events. Observed intonational structures can be conceived of as different solutions to a functional dilemma: The requirement to realise meaningful pitch movements in certain positions and the extent to which segments lend themselves to a clear manifestation of these pitch movements.
WEEKEND TOURISM AS A CULTURAL PHENOMENON
Authors: Ustymenko Lesia
Published: March 2019

The article presents the conception of weekend tourism as a cultural phenomenon. The paper defines social functions of weekend tourism and the main stages of its development: the initial stage of weekend tourism, the stage when it becomes an organized leisure time activity, and the stage of its popularization. The article also introduces a classification of weekend tours and major centers for weekend tourism.
HISTORICAL PRINCIPLES OF HOSPITALITY DEVELOPMENT IN UKRAINE
Authors: Poplavska Alinа
Published: March 2019

The aim of the work. The article examines the essence of the hospitality concept. It determines the main historical principles of its development in the territory of Kyivan Rus, outlining the influence of the Christian tradition on the Ukrainian hospitality formation. The methodology of research. To conduct the study such methods as analytical; systemic; historical; logical; culturological were applied. The scientific novelty is a systematic study of the hospitality’s historical principles development as a socio-cultural phenomenon in Ukraine. Conclusions. Hospitality as a sociocultural phenomenon is a specific moral behavior model of a certain ethnic community members based on the system of its customs and rituals, morality norms and law. For many centuries adherering to its own traditions in the ordinary, ritual and everyday spheres of activity, every ethnos creates a system of advantages that penetrate into an everyday life, stipulating certain standards of the utilitarian behavior. Ethnic and national features of hospitality and its functioning are predetermined by a heterogeneous level of the the social culture development in different regions of the world and by the influence of local customs, rituals and tastes.
An improved measure of inter-industry pay differentials
Authors: Gittleman Maury , Pierce Brooks
Published: March 2019

The measurement of inter-industry pay differentials and the resulting use of this information to assess the empirical relevance of different labor market theories have been hampered by the fact that measures of total compensation – as opposed to just wages and salaries – are not available in the datasets traditionally used. We improve upon past measures of inter-industry pay differentials by being the first, to our knowledge, to incorporate microdata on nonwage compensation. Such compensation can easily exceed 40 to 50 percent of wages and thus its inclusion may either diminish or amplify measured industry pay differences. Using the Employer Costs for Employee Compensation (ECEC) data produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, we find that the inclusion of benefits increases industry dispersion by 16 percent when no controls are included and by an even greater 30 percent when controls are included.
The building process of a new integrated system of business micro-data 1989–2004
Authors: Grazzi Marco , Sanzo Roberto , Secchi Angelo , Zeli Alessandro
Published: March 2019

This work describes the process of building Micro.3, an integrated database containing firm level information for Italian enterprises. Micro.3 covers the period 1989–2004 and represents the development of a previous database, Micro.1 which covered a much narrower set of variables and spanned only from 1989 to 1997. This works explains the motives that drove the development of Micro.3 and it details the decisions taken during the process of construction to ensure the continuity of the existing variables as they are retrieved from different sources. Finally, we presents some statistical evidence that enables the reader to assess the quality of Micro.3.
Computer networks and productivity revisited: Does plant size matter? Evidence and implications
Authors: Hyatt Henry R. , Nguyen Sang V.
Published: March 2019

Numerous studies have documented a positive association between information technology investments and business- and establishment-level productivity. Most of these studies, however, rely on empirical specifications that over-represent small businesses. In this paper, we revisit one piece of evidence, the Computer Network Use Supplement to the 1999 U.S. Annual Survey of Manufactures, which has previously been used to show that there is a positive relationship between computer networks and productivity in manufacturing plants. We show that this is only true for small- and medium-sized plants, and that for larger plants the relationship is negative. We give critical consideration to alternative methods for weighting these data, and show that employment-weighted estimates indicate the presence of a computer network has, on average, a negative relationship with the productivity of employees.
Making full use of the longitudinal design of the Current Population Survey: Methods for linking records across 16 months\m{1}
Authors: Rivera Drew Julia A. , Flood Sarah , Warren John Robert
Published: March 2019

Data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) are rarely analyzed in a way that takes advantage of the CPS's longitudinal design. This is mainly because of the technical difficulties associated with linking CPS files across months. In this paper, we describe the method we are using to create unique identifiers for all CPS person and household records from 1989 onward. These identifiers – available along with CPS basic and supplemental data as part of the on-line Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) – make it dramatically easier to use CPS data for longitudinal research across any number of substantive domains. To facilitate the use of these new longitudinal IPUMS-CPS data, we also outline seven different ways that researchers may choose to link CPS person records across months, and we describe the sample sizes and sample retention rates associated with these seven designs. Finally, we discuss a number of unique methodological challenges that researchers will confront when analyzing data from linked CPS files.
Unemployment Rates and Their Implications for Human Resource Planning
Authors: Buss Terry F.
Published: March 2019

In this study, the planning implications of using local unemployment rates, published monthly by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) , are examined. An argument is made that many planners are unaware of the implications of using published unemployment rates in their planning activities. This is primarily because of a lack of understanding of the definitions used by BLS in its statistical program. Research reveals several alternative ways to view unemployment at the local level. Unique data from the Youngstown/Warren SMSA is used to illustrate the problems and prospects of concern to planners. The paper suggests the increased need for local unemployment rate studies.
Using Medicare Data for Short-Run Projections of the Elderly Population
Authors: Smith Stanley K.
Published: March 2019

As the elderly population of the United States grows in absolute number and as a proportion of total population, accurate projections of that population become increasingly important for sound policy decisions. Cohort component techniques are typically used for state and local projections of the elderly population, but are often outdated or even nonexistent for many local areas. This paper suggests an alternative approach, based on Medicare data and simple projection techniques. Projections for several base periods and projection horizons are made for all states and for counties in Florida and are compared with actual Medicare enrollment. On the basis of these comparisons it appears that Medicare data and simple projection techniques can produce very useful short-run projections of the elderly population for states and local areas.
Missing Observations: A Simultaneous Approach versus Interpolation by Related Series
Authors: Lanning Steven G.
Published: March 2019

The simultaneous estimation of missing obseroations with the parameters of a model is compared to separately interpolating existing data by application of related series to estimate missing obseroations prior to estimation of model parameters. Missing obseroations are simulated on a complete time series. The basis of the comparison is the deviations between estimates of model parameters when no obseroations are missing and estimates of the same model parameters when the simulated missing obseroations are estimated. No support for favoring the simultaneous approach over the two-step interpolation approach is found.
An Input-Output Analysis of Danish Trade and Specialization 1966–1983
Authors: Dalgaard Esben
Published: March 2019

The paper develops a method for measuring the gain or loss to the economy as a whole of changes in specialization. Such changes are in turn due partly to changes in market shares on the domestic market and partly to changes in the composition of exports. By applying domestic market shares and the composition of exports of year t-i to the I-O coefficients of year t it is possible to isolate the effect of changes in specialization from those of production technology reflected in the I-O coefficients. The method is applied to the time series of Danish input-output tables for the period 1966–1983. In addition the paper sets up an optimization model for the industrial structure of a small open economy under perfect competition and applies the model to the Danish I-O table for 1983.
Workers' Compensation – An Adequate Employee Benefit Now?
Authors: Paul Robert J.
Published: March 2019

Fourteen years ago (1975) an analysis was conducted of Workers' Compensation Legislation in terms of how well it achieved it underlying objectives. At that time, in spite of more than sixty years of revision, the laws were meeting only some of their objectives and even these only partially. In the ensuring fourteen years additional study and revision has taken place. The laws are still inadequate, indeed with regard to some objectives, the situation has worsened. It is long past time to reform Workers' Compensation laws so that they will contribute effectively and efficiently to the social insurance system of the United States. Current legislative efforts appear to favor comprehensive health care programs although the form and content are being debated. Changes designed to restrain rising insurance costs appear eminent.
Growth Accounting in the Open Economy: Parametric and Nonparametric Estimates
Authors: Kohli Ulrich
Published: March 2019

The purpose of this paper is to identify the individual contributions of the major factors explaining U.S. nominal GNP growth in an open-economy setting: technological change, increases in the endowments of labor and capital, movements in the terms of trade, and domestic output price changes. We follow in turns a non parametric and a parametric approach. Both have a tight theoretical foundation, being based on the GNP function approach to modeling the production sector of an open economy.
An Examination of the Substitution and Supplement Effects of Current Cost Ratios
Authors: DeBerg Curtis L. , Shriver Keith A. , Wheeler Stephen W.
Published: March 2019

The prior research on the usefulness of current cost data has concentrated on the incremental information content of current cost income measures by adopting a capital market perspective. The present study complements the prior research and focuses on the substitution and supplement effects of current cost balance sheet ratios by utilizing an individual user approach to financial analysis. This paper examines the distributional properties of current cost ratios in order to ascertain whether such properties are similar to the properties of historical cost ratios for firms in the primary manufacturing and retail industries. Furthermore, the relative rankings of the firms based on the current cost ratios are compared with the relative rankings based on the historical cost ratios for various fundamental financial dimensions. The findings indicate that substitution or supplement effects may exist for current cost ratios in both cross-sectional and intertemporal analyses of the financial constructs of firms. These effects are most evident for the leverage dimension on a cross-sectional basis and the profitability dimension on an intertemporal basis. Furthermore, the effects are more prevalent in the manufacturing industry as compared to the retail industry. These results suggest that the usefulness of current cost data may be on a firm-specific basis relative to the average performance of the industry containing that firm. In summary, the findings are consistent with both the predictive ability goal of external financial reporting and the evaluation of managerial performance objective of internal managerial reporting.
Civilian Job Opportunities and Naval Re-Enlistment Behavior
Authors: Schiller Bradley R. , Kroetch Brent G. , Flacco Paul R.
Published: March 2019

This paper examines the influence of economic factors on re-enlistment decisions in the U.S. Navy. The effect of civilian wage opportunities on re-enlistment behavior is of particular interest.

The study employs a unique longitudinal data base to track the actual civilian employment experiences of Navy personnel who enlisted between 1973–77. The data base was created by merging the records of the Defense Military Data Center and the U.S. Social Security Administration.

This data base is used to estimate the opportunity costs of re-enlisting and these estimates are then used in the two-step regression procedure to predict re-enlistment behavior.
Consumer Behavior and Changes in the Prices of Monetary Aggregates
Authors: Johnson John D. , Slottje Daniel J.
Published: March 2019

Today, COLA's are routinely used in labor contracts, social security and pension adjustments and in many other bilateral agreements where uncertainty about the future is part of the negotiating process. Neo-classical economic theory attempted to deal with this concept through the development of the true cost-of-living index (TCLI). This will be discussed in greater detail below. This article examines the sensitivity of the cost-of-living to some aspects of price changes (and consequently real income changes) that have not been analyzed before. Specifically, we examine the impact of changes in the prices of commodities and monetary aggregates on consumer preferences.
Private Consumption Expenditure and Price Index Numbers for the Netherlands, 1921–1939 and 1948–1988
Authors: Van Driel Hans , Boon Martin
Published: March 2019

In 1982 the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics published time-series of private consumption expenditure and price index numbers for 106 consumer goods and services for the Netherlands over the period 1951–1977. Recently, new series have become available, with a slightly different classification of 99 consumer goods and services. These series range over the years 1948–1988. Additionally, they have been linked to the series which were published by Barten for 98 consumer goods and services over the period 1921–1939 on an aggregation level of 25 groups of goods and services.
On the Utility of Lagged Ratio-Correlation as a Short-Term County Population Projection Method: A Case Study of Washington State
Authors: Swanson David A. , Tayman Jeff , Beck Don
Published: March 2019

Utility has recently been proposed as a criterion for evaluating forecasts because of problems that arise from evaluations that focus exclusively on accuracy, which is the normative expectation for evaluating forecasts. Utility is used to evaluate the lagged ratio-correlation method as a short-term projection tool. The utility of the lagged ratio-correlation is compared with two alternatives, exponential extrapolation and the Cohort-Component Method, using data from a case study for Washington State counties at three points in time, 1970, 1980 and 1990. Together, these three projection methods represent the range of current practice in regard to resource requirements and accuracy. Each method's utility is measured using Proportionate Reduction In Error (PRE) techniques. These show the reduction in average error across counties that occurs by using each projection method instead of the previous census as a forecast of county population, which is virtually a no-cost forecasting tool. Reductions in error are examined relative to the higher “cost” associated with each of the three projection methods. The evaluation suggests that the lagged ratio-correlation method consistently has a high level of utility for all three timepoints. It achieves reductions in error that are comparable to those achieved by the Cohort-Component Method, yet with much less resource requirements. The exponential extrapolation method is found to have high and moderate utility in two of the three timepoints.
Mean Square Error Confidence Intervals for Measuring Uncertainty in Intercensal Net Migration Estimates: A Case Study of Arkansas, 1980–1990
Authors: Swanson David A. , Kintner Hallie J. , McGehee Mary
Published: March 2019

Estimates of net migration are virtually always constructed from the standpoint that the mortality underlying a survived population is not stochastic and the census counts framing the intercensal period are error free. There is compelling evidence, however, that mortality should be viewed as a random variable and census counts contain systematic errors. This evidence suggests that net migration accuracy is affected both by random error and bias. We explore the estimation of net migration accuracy by placing “Mean Square Error” (MSE) confidence intervals around 1980–1990 net migration estimates for Arkansas made using the Forward Life Table Survival Method. This type of confidence interval measures accuracy by incorporating both bias and random error. We provide empirical and theoretical justifications for the use of this type of confidence interval over the more commonly-found typed based solely on random error, Since bias can affect probability levels, we provide a simple adjustment that preserves the desired level of probability for the MSE confidence intervals and produces an unbiased estimator. For the illustrative age-gender-race net migration data for Arkansas, we construct 66% MSE confidence intervals and note that they become wider as random mortality variation increases. They also become wider as the differential between 1980 and 1990 net census undercount error increases for a given cohort. We argue that the MSE intervals provide an accurate description of the uncertainty in net migration estimates and that they have useful applications.
Ideal Index Numbers of Earnings: An Empirical Study for Great Britain
Authors: Westaway A.J. , Fleming M.C.
Published: March 2019

Two aspects of the methodology for constructing index numbers of average earnings are investigated using data for the UK. Although trends in average earnings reflect changes in both industrial structure and the composition of the labour force, it is common to compute indices which ignore compositional changes other than those at the industrial level (as in the UK). First, this article examines the effect of standardising at both levels using UK data for the period 1971–92. Secondly, it considers the practical significance of using alternative index number formulae which possess certain desirable properties. It is concluded that the official series is subject to unnecessary error components which result in a non-negligible upward bias.
Arizona Sunbirds and Minnesota Snowbirds: two species of the elderly seasonal migrant genus,
Authors: Hogan Timothy D. , Steinnes Donald N.
Published: March 2019

Using comparable definitions and two statewide surveys, it is estimated that the elderly seasonal migration rate is higher in Arizona during the summer (10.1%) than it is in Minnesota during the winter (9.2%). More attention is given to the Arizona seasonal migrants, or Sunbirds, since they have not been studied as much as Snowbirds. While Sunbirds are similar in many ways to Snowbirds, they tend to be older. This age difference, along with a tendency for both types of seasonal migrants to have been recent permanent migrants, suggests that permanent migration may be a precursor to seasonal migration.
The "family/couple/household" unit of measurement in poverty estimation
Authors: Iceland John
Published: March 2019

The unit of measurement used in poverty estimation continues to receive critical scrutiny. The debate revolves around what is the most appropriate unit -- the family, the household, or some other entity. This analysis discusses the existing options and offers a conceptually more refined alternative: the"family/couple/household" (FCH) unit, which assumes income pooling among family members, including cohabiting couples, but not among non-relatives, and takes into account the benefits from economies of scale for all household members. Poverty rates are estimated using alternative definitions. Overall, empirical results show modestly lower poverty rates when household-level economies of scale are taken into account. The difference is largest for persons living in nontraditional household arrangements, such as cohabitors and non-family members.
Consistent aggregation and chaining of price and quantity measures
Authors: Hillinger Claude
Published: March 2019

The international movement to convert the real (deflated) components of the NIPAs to chain indexes, in order to assure timeliness, has exposed their inconsistency. Most importantly, the components do not add up to the totals. The US accounts, which employ a Fisher chain, have additional inconsistencies. For example, the product of the price and quantity indexes does not reproduce the change in nominal expenditure. The paper presents a unified approach to the construction of price and quantity measures which can be chained while maintaining every kind of consistency. The solution is based on a combination of elements from the theories of price indexes and consumer surplus and does not require the unrealistic assumption of homothetic and identical preferences usually made in the economic theory of index numbers.
Measurement index for urban infrastructure production cost disparity
Authors: Yang Ji-Chung
Published: March 2019

This article aims at drawing the measurement index for urban infrastructure production cost disparity. Due to the difference in local public financial resource, a disparity will eventually occur and determine the actual provision level of urban infrastructure. Other than the above, various social and economic factors, such as average land prices (ALP) in each city, financial dependency ratio (FDR), population density (PD), discharge facilities for environmental pollution (EPF), distribution ratio on sewage system (DRSEW), and road pavement ratio (RDPVR), will affect the urban infrastructure provision. In this article, we first build a theoretical framework by reviewing the existing studies regarding the presumption on production cost disparity. Next, we establish the models of inducing type expenditure function, and through this, analyze the actual impact that the social and economic environmental variables have on the production cost. Using Korean data, the disparity index is estimated and interpreted.

Average land price which is calculated through 449,925 standard lots across nations, number of automobiles per road length within city, etc are used for empirical estimation. Major findings will be helpful in managing the budget in relation to intergovernmental grants and expenditures.
Do regions have an impact on a person's health insurance status? A hierarchical modeling approach for small area estimates
Authors: O'Hara Brett , Popoff Carole
Published: March 2019

Synthetic methods using age, race, sex and Hispanic origin (ARSH) arrays specific to regions have been used in combination with survey data to produce inexpensive estimates of health insurance coverage for different geographic regions. Because health insurance status is typically derived from survey data, a synthetic approach is unreliable when a region has few persons in sample with certain ARSH characteristics. For instance, a region with few persons of Hispanic origin and sparse survey coverage will produce less reliable estimates for that population subgroup.

This article focuses on a hybrid model of synthetic estimation and hierarchical modeling. Hierarchical modeling can minimize the unexplained differences between regions making it possible to increase the reliability of the health insurance status estimates. Information on health insurance status and age, race, sex and Hispanic origin comes from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. State-level variables that influence the State's average health insurance rate were gathered from multiple sources.
Does distance matter? A comparison of boundary and distance-based measures of internal migration
Authors: Yankow Jeffrey J.
Published: March 2019

This study demonstrates that migration measures predicated on cross-boundary movement introduce significant misclassification error into both migrant and non-migrant samples. The former is shown to occur when across-boundary moves cover only relatively short distances, while the later results from long distance residential movement occurring within the boundary. Using a unique sample of geocoded data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979, I find that over half of all intercounty moves and one-third of all interstate moves cover distances of less than fifty miles. In contrast, more than half of all within-state moves (of at least ten miles) cover distances of more than fifty miles while over thirty-five percent cover at least one hundred miles. Estimation results from a standard discrete-choice model of migration propensity are shown to be highly sensitive to distance suggesting that inferences based on a particular migration definition will often not generalize across alternative measures.
Attrition bias in labor economics research using matched CPS files
Authors: Neumark David , Kawaguchi Daiji
Published: March 2019

Short panel data sets constructed by matching individuals across monthly files of the Current Population Survey (CPS) have been used to study a wide range of questions in labor economics. But because the CPS does not follow movers, these panels exhibit significant attrition, which may lead to bias in longitudinal estimates. The Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) uses essentially the same sampling frame and design as the CPS, but makes substantial efforts to follow movers. We therefore use the SIPP to construct "data-based" rather than "model-based" corrections for bias from selective attrition. The approach is applied to two questions that have been studied with CPS data – union wage differentials and the male marriage wage premium. The evidence suggests that in many applications the advantages of using matched CPS panels to obtain longitudinal estimates are likely to far outweigh the disadvantages from attrition biases, although we should allow for the possibility that attrition bias leads the longitudinal estimates to be understated.
The utility of probabilistic models to identify individuals with future high medical expenditures
Authors: Cohen Steven B. , Ezzati-Rice Trena , Yu William
Published: March 2019

In this paper, an evaluation model is presented to assess the utility of probabilistic models in terms of their capacity to successfully oversample policy relevant population subgroups that are subject to transitions. Examples of these applications are drawn from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey(MEPS). Given the high concentration of health care expenditures in a given year among a relatively small percentage of the population, a prediction model that can accurately identify the persistence of high levels of expenditures is an important analytical tool. This type of modeling effort also enhances the ability to discern the causes of high health care expenses and the characteristics of the individuals who incur them. This feature also applies to prediction models that can accurately identify those individuals with persistently low or average levels of expenditures. The models that are presented have particular relevance as statistical tools to facilitate efficient sampling strategies that permit the selection of an over-sample of individuals likely to incur high levels of medical expenditures in the future.
The differential impact of incentives on refusals: Results from the 2001 national household survey on drug abuse incentive experiment
Authors: Eyerman Joe , Bowman Katherine , Butler Dicy , Wright Douglas
Published: March 2019

Research has demonstrated that cash incentives paid to respondents in sample surveys can increase the level of cooperation, reduce non-response bias, and lower data collection costs. However, recent research has shown that gains in response rate and reduced data collection costs associated with monetary incentives may vary across sub-groups in the population. Consequently, monetary incentives may result in inconsistent reductions in non-response error and systemic changes in sample composition. This paper describes an incentive experiment conducted as part of the 2001 National Household Survey on Drug Abuse(NHSDA), and evaluates the impact of monetary incentives on measures of cooperation for different population sub-groups. Findings indicate that the incentive had a positive impact on cooperation. Furthermore, the incentive neither introduced additional differences in cooperation propensities, nor did it eliminate the pre-existing differences in cooperation among population sub-groups.
Incentive effects on cooperation rates and sample composition in the alcohol and drug services study
Authors: Ritter Grant , Reif Sharon , Gadzuk Anita , Krenzke Thomas , Mohadjer Leyla , Lee Margaret , Horgan Constance M.
Published: March 2019

In the past, incentive payments have proven successful in increasing survey response rates. In particular, incentives have been shown to increase the yield rate for harder-to-interview respondents. Despite this success, incentives are not without controversy. Opponents note that incentives may make the survey appear less important, destroy civic responsibility, and create an unnecessary expectation. Over time researchers may have to pay sizable incentives to achieve the response rates obtained 20 years ago before the use of incentives was common. Incentives could also have a detrimental impact on sample composition. The Alcohol and Drug Services Study (ADSS) included an incentive payment sub-study as part of its client follow-up phase. The sample for this sub-study randomized clients into four groups. One group was paid $25, the amount received by other responding clients in the ADSS main study. Respondents in the other three groups were paid an alternative amount (i.e., $0, $10, or $35). In examining the impact of varying incentives to sampling benchmarks, such as response rate and sample composition, the ADSS incentive sub-study found that the fears of opponents concerning the use of incentives were substantially unfounded, at least among the substance abuse treatment clients in the follow-up phase of ADSS.
Non-response bias from the national household survey on drug abuse incentive experiment
Authors: Wright Douglas , Bowman Katherine , Butler Dicy , Eyerman Joe
Published: March 2019

The purpose of this paper is to determine whether giving a monetary incentive has an effect on reported drug use rates. Sampling weights were adjusted to account for the differential response rates between the incentive and non-incentive cases. Then logistic regression models of substance use were fitted as a function of the incentive level ($0, $20, and $40) while controlling on other variables that might mask the relationship. The incentive had a statistically significant effect on the reported past-year use of marijuana and on past-month use of cocaine, but no effect on past-month or lifetime use of marijuana. Offering a monetary incentive to respond can result in different estimated prevalence rates for the incentive and non-incentive groups. The extent of the difference may be a function of the perceived level of social disapproval of the substance and the reference period (past month, past year, or any past use). Some of the difference appears to be due to differences in substance use rates between the group that had traditionally reported without an incentive and the new group attracted by the incentive. Other differences appear to result from more honest reporting among the traditional respondents.
School district planning and the 2010 decennial census: Data uses and needs
Authors: McKibben Jerome N.
Published: March 2019

As school districts attempt to address future planning needs for the next 10 years, they are increasingly using in-depth and comprehensive demographic data to assist them in the decision making process. Data at the school district level is available from the 2000 decennial census through the Census Bureau and the National Center for Education Statistics. Unfortunately, demographic data for sub district areas must be complied by aggregating block level census data to various sub district geographies. Without access to accurate block and block group census data, school districts would have no reliable demographic data to use in there efforts to develop short and long term strategic plans addressing the future composition and distribution of their students or to make accurate projections of future demand based on the unique characteristic of the district sub areas.
A large-scale validation study of measurement errors in longitudinal survey data
Authors: Kristensen Nicolai , Westergaard-Nielsen Niels
Published: March 2019

We analyze measurement and classification errors in several key variables in a matched sample of survey and administrative longitudinal data on employees spanning 1994–2001. The data are much more comprehensive than usually seen in validation studies. Measurement errors in earnings are found to be much larger than reported in previous studies limited to one single firm. A key finding is that employees who attrite from the panel report their earnings significantly less accurate than individuals who are observed throughout the entire sampling period.
Take a penny, leave a penny: The propensity to round earnings in survey data
Authors: Schwabish Jonathan A.
Published: March 2019

This paper investigates the likelihood of rounding as a source of bias in survey data. The analysis uses thirty years of March Current Population Survey data, the 1990 Census, and the 1996 Survey of Income and Program Participation matched to Social Security Administration data to measure the magnitude and direction of rounding by worker characteristic. The results show three distinct trends. First, more people round their earnings today than in the past. Second, groups that are more likely to round their earnings include men, people in their prime working years (35 to 64), and those with high levels of education or with high levels of earnings. And third, using the matched data, these respondents appear to round their earnings down.
Searching for the holy grail of index number theory
Authors: Balk Bert M.
Published: March 2019

The index number problem is known as that of decomposing aggregate value change, in ratio or difference form, into two, ideally symmetric, factors. This note comments on a recent contribution of Casler [6].
Approximate replication of high-breakdown robust regression techniques
Authors: Zeileis Achim , Kleiber Christian
Published: March 2019

We present a case study demonstrating that without data and code archives reproducibility is more the exception than the rule, especially if modern, complex algorithms are employed. Specifically, we show that stochastic extensions of OLS, as required in some combinatorial optimization problems arising in high-breakdown robust regression, can be difficult to replicate in the absence of detailed information on tuning parameters and further computational issues.
Aggregation of producer durables with exogenous technical change and endogenous useful lives
Authors: Bitros George C.
Published: March 2019

The received theory of aggregation of producer durables has been erected on certain fundamental hypotheses. One of them is that producer durables deteriorate exponentially, which implies that their replacement is proportional to the corresponding capital stocks. However the proportionality hypothesis conflicts with most of the available theoretical and empirical evidence. So an effort to relax it is long overdue. To this end the present paper investigates the conditions for aggregation in a two-sector vintage capital model with exogenous technological change and endogenous useful lives. In the model aggregation is achieved by adapting the procedure first suggested by Haavelmo [11]. From the simulations of the solution with data from the United States in the post-war period it is found that the conventional approach to aggregation may be responsible for significant biases in the measurement of capital stocks.
Spatially disaggregated estimates of poverty in Azerbaijan: Asset indices versus imputed welfare
Authors: Baschieri Angela , Falkingham Jane
Published: March 2019

'Poverty maps', that is graphic representations of spatially disaggregated estimates of welfare, are being increasingly used to geographically target scare resources. This paper outlines the development of a set of poverty maps for Azerbaijan which can be used by different users. The paper contrasts two alternative approaches to the measurement and mapping of welfare. First a map is derived using imputed household consumption. This involves combining information from the 2002 Household Budget Survey with 1999 Azerbaijan Census data using techniques developed by a team within the World Bank that are now becoming standard practice. Secondly an alternative map is constructed using an asset index based on data from the 1999 Census to produce estimates of welfare at the district level. This provides a unique opportunity to compare the welfare rankings obtained at the regional level under the two alternative approaches and to assess the different results that the two techniques provide.
State export data: Origin of movement vs. origin of production
Authors: Cassey Andrew J.
Published: March 2019

The Origin of Movement (OM) series is unique data documenting the destination of state exports by subsector. A datum indicates the state an export begins its journey, not the production location (OP). Newer OM data have not been examined to determine if they represent OP. I describe the collection, dissemination, and limitations of the OM data. I perform diagnostic tests to asses how effectively the OM data represent OP. Results indicate the OM data are usable for OP, though there are idiosyncratic subsectors and states, and systematic differences distinguishing the OM from OP.
Internet search behavior as an economic forecasting tool: The case of inflation expectations
Authors: Guzmán Giselle
Published: March 2019

This paper proposes a measure of real-time inflation expectations based on metadata, i.e., data about data, constructed from internet search queries performed on the search engine Google. The forecasting performance of the Google Inflation Search Index (GISI) is assessed relative to 37 other indicators of inflation expectations – 36 survey measures and the TIPS spread. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three measures of inflation expectations: the Livingston Survey, Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, these low frequency measures appear anachronistic in the modern era of higher frequency and real-time data. I demonstrate that higher frequency measures tend to outperform lower frequency measures in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. Furthermore, Granger Causality tests indicate that the GISI metadata indicator anticipates the inflation rate by 12 months, and out-of-sample forecasts show that the GISI has the lowest forecast error of all the inflation expectations indicators tested.
PEMANFAATAN LIMBAH PENYULINGAN SERAI WANGI SEBAGAI PUPUK ORGANIK TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN DAN PRODUKSI KACANG TANAH (Arachis hypogea L.)
Authors: Mayura Eliza , Idris Herwita
Published: March 2019

Kacang tanah merupakan salah satu jenis kacang-kacangan yang mempunyai nilai gizi tinggi. Akan tetapi produksi kacang tanah di Indonesia masih rendah dibandingkan dengan negara lain. Untuk meningkatkan produktivitas kacang tanah perlu dilakukan penambahan nutrisi pada tanaman namun dengan mahalnya harga pupuk perlu dicari alternatif lain. Untuk itu dilakukan penelitian pemanfaatan abu limbah penyulingan serai wangi menjadi pupuk organik untuk meningkatkan produktivitas kacang tanah. Penelitian ini dilakukan di Kebun Percobaan Balittro Laing Solok sejak September sampai Desember 2017. Penelitian menggunakan Rancangan Acak Kelompok (RAK) dengan 4 perlakuan yaitu pemberian abu limbah penyulingan serai wangi dengan dosis : 1) 200 g 2) 250 g 3) 300 g dan 4) 0 g pada 8 tanaman per plot diulang 6 kali. Benih kacang tanah ditanam dalam kantong berukuran 45 x 60 cm yang berisi media tanah dan pupuk kandang dengan volume 1 kg/kantong. Variabel yang diamati meliputi tinggi tanaman, jumlah cabang, jumlah polong, bobot basah, bobot kering serta bobot kering/100 biji. Pengamatan pertumbuhan dilakukan setiap dua minggu dimulai tiga minggu setelah tanam. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa pertumbuhan vegetatif dan produksi tanaman kacang tanah mempunyai perbedaan yang signifikan dari setiap dosis abu limbah penyulingan yang digunakan. Dengan hasil yang terbaik pada dosis abu limbah serai wangi 300 g/kantong terlihat pada tinggi tanaman, jumlah cabang, jumlah polong, berat basah, berat kering dan berat per 100 biji berturut-turut 46,82 cm, 4,76 buah, 37,72 buah, 80,31 g, 35,40 g dan 62,36.