bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
50 years of Etna Summit Craters through a photogrammetry-based time machine
Authors: Massimo Cantarero , Emanuela De Beni , Cristina Proietti , Fabio Luca Bonali , Domenico Palano , Riccardo Civico , Mario Paratore
Published: March 2024

Etna is one of the most active volcanoes in the world, with almost continuous eruptive activity from its four summit craters resulting in frequent morphological variation of its upper area. The summit area is frequently site of effusive and explosive activity, but also of local flank collapses of the summit cones and pyroclastic flows with different triggering mechanisms. Such a dynamic environment requires a thorough understanding of its temporal evolution in order to properly assess the state of the volcano over time, and infer further insight into its potential hazard. Voragine (VOR), formerly called the Central Crater, is the oldest and has been depicted on topographic maps since at least 1865; the NE-Crater (NEC) cone was born in 1911; the Bocca Nuova started as a pit crater next to Voragine in 1968, and the SE-Crater (SEC) cone started in 1971. Since 2011, a new cone grew on the SEC eastern lower flank during a series of paroxysmal episodes and it progressive coalesced with the SEC cone. To properly model the temporal changes of the summit area, we exploited archival topographic maps and aerial photogrammetric stereo-pairs. This reconstruction started from the digitising and processing of topographic maps that were produced on 1897, 1932, and 1985. We also processed aerial stereo-images acquired since 1954. From these datasets we extracted Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) with 5-10 m pixel size. We integrated historical data with already available DEMs: the 1998 and 2001, interpolated from vector maps; the 2005, obtained from aerial photogrammetry; and the 2012, 2014 and 2015 derived from helicopter-acquired data. Finally, between 2017 and 2023 we performed UAS (unoccupied aerial systems) surveys to derive high-resolution DEMs and orthomosaics with sub-meter pixel size. This new multi-temporal Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), from ancient topographic maps and aerial photo as well as from recent and current UAS data, have been analysed through the ESRI ArcGIS software to reconstruct the topography and quantify the main morphological changes of Etna summit area. Our modelling increases the knowledge about the evolution and the behaviour of a frequently active volcano, thus enabling to mitigate the associated risks. 
Decoupling the Influence of Climate Change and Natural Variability on the Middle Eastern Shamal Wind 
Authors: Bangalth Hamza Kunhu , Raj Jerry , Gunturu Udaya Bhaskar , Stenchikov Georgiy
Published: March 2024

The Middle Eastern Shamal, a prominent north-northwesterly wind, plays a crucial role in the Arabian Peninsula's climate and environment. Originating from the interaction between a semipermanent anticyclone over northern Saudi Arabia and a cyclone over southern Iran, it influences regional climate. The Shamal is essential in transporting dust and pollutants from the Tigris-Euphrates to the Persian Gulf, affecting air quality, health, and travel. Its potential as a renewable energy source also highlights its importance for the region's future energy strategies.However, understanding the time series of the Shamal wind is a complex task, owing to the intertwined influences of natural climate variability and human-induced climate change. While climate change is a critical factor, natural variability driven by internal climate modes like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) also significantly influences these winds. These oscillations, operating over multidecadal scales, alongside the overarching trend of climate change, form a complex web affecting the regional climate. This study addresses the challenge of decoupling the impacts of climate change and natural climate variability on the Shamal wind. Our analysis employs Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), a relatively new approach that allows us to decouple the influence of various internal climate modes from that of anthropogenic climate change. This method surpasses traditional techniques by avoiding assumptions of linearity and stationarity. The study utilizes ERA5 reanalysis data to analyze summer and winter Shamal winds.Preliminary findings indicate that internal climate modes like the AMO are equally significant as climate change in influencing Shamal wind in the past. This insight is crucial for more accurate projections and predictions of future Shamal wind behavior, benefiting the Middle East's environmental management, health, and renewable energy sectors.
Estimating the long-term sea-level contribution from shelf mass loading on the Norwegian shelf using hydrographic in-situ data, satellite altimetry and GRACE
Authors: Richter Kristin , Mangini Fabio , Bonaduce Antonio , Raj Roshin
Published: March 2024

Future sea-level rise on shallow continental shelves differs in one important aspect from open ocean sea-level rise: the local steric effect, that is the change in the water column height due to changes in sea water density, plays a minor role compared to the much deeper open ocean. Instead, the bulk of oceanic sea-level rise on continental shelves arises from an increase in ocean water mass that is being imported from the open ocean – the so-called shelf mass loading (SML). This redistribution is mainly driven by thermal expansion of water masses below shelf depth and magnifies as the subsurface ocean layers continue to warm. Few studies have tried to detect SML as the signal is only expected to become dominant over decadal to multidecadal periods given the large natural variability in shallow regions.Here, we combine hydrographic data from a section crossing the Norwegian shelf, with observations of total sea-level change from altimetry and estimates of mass changes from GRACE gravity missions to estimate the strength of SML over the past decades. We compare the residual of total sea level (from altimetry) and steric height (from hydrography) with GRACE estimates from three different solutions. Over the common period (2002 -2020), both estimates show a consistently higher trend over the shallow shelf area compared to the deep ocean. We estimate the shelf mass contribution in the order of 0.5 – 1.0 mm/yr, depending on the GRACE solution selected.
The Baltic Sea Observatory – A new holistic approach to understand the coastal ocean
Authors: Holtermann Peter , Geersen Jacob , Mars Robert , Neubert Sebastian , von Thenen Miriam , Voss Maren
Published: March 2024

The Baltic Sea, a European semi-enclosed marginal sea, is driven by the estuarine circulation of dense, saline North-Sea water entering the Baltic Sea and mixing with the freshwater input due to rivers and precipitation. The mixed brackish water leaves the Baltic Sea at the surface through the Danish Belts and the Sound. These processes lead to a strong vertical stratification of the Baltic Sea water masses, the halocline. The slow water exchange causes a mean residence time of the water of 30 years, which leads an accumulation of nutrients. A major consequence of the long residence time and the halocline are low oxygen concentrations below the halocline, with virtually permanent anoxic conditions in the deep basins of the Baltic Sea. To what respect climate change, with the warming of the Baltic Sea as one effect, is impacting the Baltic Sea ecosystem is an open and very relevant research question. One potential consequence could be a further spreading of low or anoxic zones towards the coastal areas, which is already being observed. A less well understood part of the Baltic Sea are the shallow coastal zones, but recent research points to the direction of a strong relevance for e.g. the nutrient turnover. To develop a fundamental understanding of the relevant processes and their coupled effect on the biota, it is therefore essential to measure, monitor and predict the shallow water processes along the margins of the Baltic Sea and how they alter the state of the sea at a basin-wide scale. To address these research questions, the IOW is establishing an interdisciplinary network of long-term and short-term observations in the coastal area of the southern Baltic Sea. This involves deploying moorings in shallow water that send their data to the institute in real time, where they are made immediately available to the general public. The essential ocean parameters (EOP) acquired will be used to control specialized sampling. A measurement program on biogeochemical nutrient turnover, sediment dynamics, geophysics, phytoplankton and zooplankton takes place regularly and is linked to physical data on current patterns, wave intensity and turbulence. The in-Situ measurements are combined with high-resolution numerical modeling to be able to extrapolate the field measurements and to develop numerical experiments.Different stakeholders groups will be involved to provide society and authorities with the latest findings of the measurement campaigns.
Optimizing crop type mapping for fairness 
Authors: Gorbunov Ilya , Gevaert Caroline , Belgiu Mariana
Published: March 2024

Minor crops are crucial for food security, especially due to their resilience against climate change related challenges (Renard & Tilman, 2019) . Consequently, accurate crop mapping is essential for monitoring policies seeking to incentivize minor crop production. However, the class imbalance problem in machine learning introduces a bias against these crops, leading to unfair classifications. This research aims to explore how this bias is mitigated through two main class imbalance correction approaches: sample balancing methods and cost-sensitive learning. Apart from investigating how these methods address the typical class imbalance problem, where there are simply less labelled samples of a specific class, we investigate how these methods can be used to address another level of bias, that created by omitted sensitive attributes. These are attributes such as parcel size, which are not explicitly considered by the classifier, yet significantly impact accuracy and contribute to the unfairness of the classification, as evidenced by notably lower accuracy for smaller parcels. By integrating these attributes into the class imbalance correction methods, we assess the potential for enhancing fairness. This approach is vital, as it corrects performance biases affecting specific sub-groups, which are not necessarily class dependent, thus addressing a critical but overlooked dimension of fairness in classification.Utilizing the BreizhCrops dataset, we create sub-sampled datasets that represent a variety of class imbalance problems. This enables us to conduct an across-the-board comparison of the selected class imbalance correction techniques, providing insights that may help streamline future research looking to employ these techniques. For the classifier architecture, we select the transformer encoder, chosen for its greater performance among deep learning methods tested on the BreizhCrops dataset (Rußwurm et al., 2020).This research contributes to the broader understanding of class imbalance correction in classification tasks, particularly for crop mapping, though the methods can also be applied in other GeoAI contexts. By evaluating sample balancing and cost-sensitive learning in varied contexts, we provide insights into optimizing classification tasks for fairness. Our work contributes to the development of responsible AI practices by offering valuable insights on how fairness can be enhanced across GeoAI applications. Renard, D., & Tilman, D. (2019). National food production stabilized by crop diversity. Nature, 571(7764), 257–260. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-1316-yRußwurm, M., Pelletier, C., Zollner, M., Lefèvre, S., & Körner, M. (2020). BreizhCrops: A Time Series Dataset for Crop Type Mapping (arXiv:1905.11893). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.1905.11893
Phosphorus modelling on agricultural fields – trade-offs between applicability and complexity
Authors: Diel Julius , König Sara , Weller Ulrich , Vogel Hans-Jörg
Published: March 2024

Besides nitrogen, phosphorus is the second most important nutrient for plants, but has only little natural inputs. If it is not added regularly by fertilizers, be it mineral or organic, the soil gets depleted after a few years. As a consequence, crop growth is impeded as well as the microbial turnover of soil organic matter.  However, many crop growth models do not account for phosphorus dynamics, although it might be a limiting factor.In a mechanistic soil process model such as BODIUM, crops are growing dynamically adapting to their boundary conditions and affect many other soil functions due to water and nutrient uptake, root exudation and biomass input to the soil. Moreover, microbial metabolism depends on the stoichiometry of soil organic matter and available nutrients, i.e. C/N/P ratios. A phosphorus component shall therefore enhance the nutrient cycle and improve the crop growth prediction, both in regard to yields as well as to feedbacks with other soil processes.Here, we want to present an extended BODIUM version including the representation of the P cycle and present first simulations with data from the Static Fertilization Experiment in Bad Lauchstädt. Beside stoichiometric considerations for all organic pools, the mineral dynamics are represented with only ‘total’ and ‘available’ P. These can easily be measured by standard procedures and are now mandatory in some countries, although with varying protocols. This is especially relevant for farmers, who are a declared target group of the model.
Trade-offs and Social Cost Estimates: Focus on CO2 and Contrail Cirrus
Authors: Johansson Daniel , Azar Christian , Pettersson Susanne , Sterner Thomas
Published: March 2024

Governments worldwide are confronted with a need to curtail emissions of greenhouse gases to achieve the global climate targets outlined in the Paris Agreement. While carbon dioxide (CO2) remains the primary greenhouse gas targeted in climate policies, it is important to address emissions of non-CO2 forcers.Trade-offs between CO2 and other climate forcers are often determined based on Global Warming Potentials (GWP). An alternative approach is to use climate-economic approaches, estimating the social cost of different forcers. Here we focus particularly on aviation CO2 emissions and contrail cirrus. Specifically, we explore how the social cost of contrail cirrus can be estimated using a revised version of the integrated assessment model DICE. We analyze contrail forcing from a flight-specific model that considers their spatio-temporal variability. Further, DICE has been revised in particular with respect to the geophysical model (being based on the emulator FaIR 2.0.0), and also with changes in the parameterization of the discounting and damage functions. Additionally, we examine how the social cost of short-lived forcers (contrail cirrus) and long-lived emissions (CO2) is influenced by the discount rate and the future temperature pathway.Concerning spatio-temporal variability, we observe that both energy forcing and the social cost of contrail cirrus are strongly dependent on flight specific conditions, including as a strong diurnal variability. Furthermore, we find that the comparison between the social costs of contrail cirrus and the social cost of CO2 depends very strongly on the discount rate and the climate path the economy is following. This follows from the fact that the climate impacts of contrail cirrus are short lived, making their social cost less contingent than CO2 on how future climate impacts are valued through the discount rate, and correspondingly less affected by the long-term changes in global mean surface temperature. We also explore the additional insights gained from analyzing the ratio of the social cost of contrail cirrus to the social cost of CO2, beyond the information provided by analyzing the corresponding GWP values. Finally, the potential policy implications of the variability of the social cost of contrail cirrus are discussed.
Lakes amplify nitrogen and phosphorus imbalances in inflows
Authors: Shatwell Tom , Graeber Daniel , van Loon-Steensma Jantsje M. , Janssen Annette
Published: March 2024

Lakes are a global sink for nutrients and thus supply an important ecosystem service in the form of nutrient retention. However, it is unclear how the relative availability of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) affects nutrient retention. To address this, we performed experiments with the lake model PCLakePlus on 9 lake archetypes that represent lakes of different mixing regimes (mono-, di-, and polymictic) in different climates. We forced the model with stochastically generated inflows and N and P loads to examine how the N:P ratio in inflow affects the N:P ratio in the lake outflow. In these model experiments, lakes tended to amplify imbalances between N and P in the inflow. At intermediate inflow N:P (~30), the outflow N:P was similar. However, at low inflow N:P, the outflow N:P was equal or lower, and at high inflow N:P, the outflow N:P was equal or higher. This amplification effect was most sensitive to high N input loads. This suggests that lakes either maintain or amplify N:P imbalances rather than buffering or compensating them. We explain these differences in nutrient retention with the lake phytoplankton and sedimentation dynamics. When input N:P is imbalanced, the phytoplankton biomass is generally limited by the nutrient in shortest supply, which limits the phytoplankton’s capacity to uptake the non-limiting nutrient. Consequently the nutrient in shortest supply is retained most efficiently, amplifying any stoichiometric imbalances. Since phytoplankton have a higher capacity to uptake and store excess P than excess N, high N:P ratios were amplified more than low N:P ratios. We further analysed a global dataset from the Global River Water Quality Archive and BasinATLAS, using boosted regression trees to identify the effect of different drivers and catchment characteristics on the molar TN:TP ratio in river and stream water. This showed that drivers and catchment characteristics associated with human impact increased N:P ratios, with a stronger effect at high N:P. The lake model subsequently showed that lakes further amplified this anthropogenic increase in N:P ratios, so that human induced stoichiometric imbalances from N pollution resonate through the landscape. These results shed light on the mechanisms behind the widespread phenomenon that lakes retain P preferentially over N. The successful management of P inputs into waterways has probably decreased N retention efficiency. Our research suggests that managers should reduce N inputs, for instance by employing nature-based solutions, to maintain a stoichiometric balance and protect sensitive downstream ecosystems and coastal zones. 
Brevetoxin Preservation in Marine Sediments from Amber Jack Blue Hole
Authors: Ruiz Angie , Muller Joanne , Adhikari Puspa , Catasus Adam , Donnelly Jeffrey , Hengstum Peter J. van
Published: March 2024

In Southwest Florida (SWFL) red tide (Karenia brevis) is a natural hazard and produces potent toxins, to both human and marine life, known as brevetoxins. Red tide, a microscopic alga species, is responsible for environmental, economic, and human health problems in this region. However, our understanding of natural and anthropogenic drivers of red tide are still poorly understood. This study endeavors to reconstruct brevtoxins records in marine sediments with the purpose to better understand present day blooms compared to historic red tide blooms in SWFL. This may be best achieved by looking at sediment cores from blue holes along the West Florida shelf. Blue Holes are natural geologic formations originating on land, as sink holes, which filled over time as global sea level rose. Generally, anoxic conditions found in blue holes provide excellent preservation of long geologic records and provide a unique opportunity to study brevetoxin as biomarkers in sediment cores. In 2023, sediment cores were collected from the Amber Jack Blue Hole off the coast of SWFL. The sediment cores were sliced at 1 cm intervals, and solvent extracted for the analysis of brevetoxins using a LC-MS/MS. The sediments were also analyzed for grain size analysis and scanned using x-ray. This study examines the vertical preservation depth of Karenia brevis and analyzes historic red tide events preserved within the Amber Jack blue hole sediments. This research provides the first opportunity to study red tide chemical biomarkers in high resolution blue hole sediment cores.
Surface irradiance variability over land in storm-resolving models.
Authors: Veerman Menno , van Heerwaarden Chiel
Published: March 2024

With increasing horizontal resolution in global models, we may expect an increasingly more realistic representation of cloud development over land as both large-scale circulations and local surface heterogeneities, such as orography and land use type, are better resolved. As clouds are a dominant contributor to inter- and intra-diurnal variations in both solar and thermal surface irradiance, the spatiotemporal irradiance variability should then be better represented than in conventional climate models. Here, we use the 5-year coupled atmosphere-ocean global simulations performed in Cycle 3 of the nextGEMS project to evaluate the surface irradiance variability over land. These 5-year simulations were performed at different resolution, from 4.4 to 28 km, and with two different global models, the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic model (ICON), allowing us to separate the impacts of horizontal resolution and of implementation choices concerning model physics. We select a couple of representative locations with varying climate and land surface characteristics where high-quality irradiance observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) are available. While first results show some benefits of increased horizontal resolution, higher resolutions simulations do not consistently produce more accurate surface irradiances than simulations at lower resolution. Furthermore, differences between the IFS and ICON models are often larger than differences between the IFS simulations at varying resolutions. These results suggest that if realistic surface irradiance predictions are concerned, e.g. for solar energy applications, the road to model improvement by increasing horizontal resolution is not straightforward. 
Full vector record of the Earth’s Magnetic Field from Upper Pleistocene to prehistoric Holocene lava-flows in La Palma (Canary Islands, Spain)
Authors: Vernet Tarragó Eva , Calvo Rathert Manuel , Carrancho Alonso Ángel , Yamamoto Yuhji , Parés Josep , Soler Vicente
Published: March 2024

La Palma, located in the westernmost part of the Canarian Archipelago, is one of the youngest islands in the archipelago. In this study, we present a paleomagnetic and paleointensity study performed in lava-flows from Upper Pleistocene and Holocene prehistoric eruptions from Cumbre Vieja volcano, in the southern part of La Palma Island. Thirteen different sites, each one with a different isotopic age date (Guillou et al., 1998; 2001), have been sampled including basalts, tephrites and phonolites. These rocks represent most of the Upper Pleistocene and prehistoric Holocene dated lava flows in the island.The aim of this study is to obtain a full-vector record of the Earth’s Magnetic Field in the island during a period comprised between 56 to 1 ka BP. This has been accomplished using alternating field and thermal stepwise demagnetizations to retrieve paleomagnetic directions. For absolute paleointensity determinations, a multi-method approach has been conducted using both Thellier-Coe with pTRM checks and Tsunakawa-Shaw methods, obtaining several consistent results. The agreement of the results with different paleointensity methods provides an additional paleointensity reliability check. In addition, different rock magnetic experiments have been performed, such as magnetization versus temperature curves, isothermal remanent magnetization (IRM) curves, hysteresis loops, backfield and FORCs, showing low coercitivity and variable Curie temperatures, displaying magnetite with different cation substitutions as the main magnetic mineral carriers. All these experiments have been carried out at the University of Burgos, the CENIEH research centre in Burgos (Spain) and the Marine Core Research Institute in Kochi University (Japan) Paleomagnetic Laboratories. Guillou, H., Carracedo, J. C. Day, S. J., Carracedo, J. C. (1998). Dating of the Upper Pleistocene Holocene volcanic activity of La Palma using the unspiked K-Ar technique. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 86(1–4), 137-149.Guillou, H., Carracedo, J. C., Duncan, R. A. (2001). K–Ar, 40Ar–39Ar ages and magnetostratigraphy of Brunhes and Matuyama lava sequences from La Palma Island. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research. 106(3), 175-194.
Informing adaptation: how do UK organisations view and use climate information?
Authors: Dookie Denyse S. , Conway Declan , Dessai Suraje
Published: March 2024

Comprehensively addressing adaptation requires raising the awareness on climate change, recognising the factors influencing engagement and adoption of adaptation options, and understanding perceptions of climate change. However, while there is an extensive literature on public (individual and social) awareness and perspectives on hazards, risk, and impacts, as well as the broader concern for climate change, there are limited insights on organisational perceptions. Nevertheless, there is an inherent importance of focusing on organisational preparedness, adaptation and resilience given the differential impacts of climate change on organisational structure and operations and noting that organisational adaptive capacity is poorly understood.This research offers unique organisational insights through an analysis of a national survey of UK-based organisations’ perceptions about adapting to a changing climate. Administered in spring 2021, the survey examines the responses of 2,400 persons with organisational planning roles on awareness of climate change and its physical risks, as well as ongoing action and perceived challenges to adaptation by organisations in the UK. In this research phase, we focus on the specific awareness of climate information by organisations, including the private sector, local authorities, public health and education sectors, as well as the volunteer sector, and note the indicated frequency, ease of use, and reliability of specified climate information sources across the different sectors. This research offers a platform for dialogue on the need to increase and improve risk communication to interest groups including a variety of organisations, as well as balancing organisational concerns relating to uncertainty and financial bottom-line.
Assessing Model simulation for central Arctic aerosol load by usingAEROSNOW dataset: Relevance for precipitation
Authors: Swain Basudev , Marco Vountas , Adrien Deroubaix , Luca Lelli , Sachin S. Gunthe , Hartmut Bösch , John P. Burrows
Published: March 2024

The Arctic is currently warming rapidly, at a rate four times higher than the global average. This warming has significant consequences, leading to increased precipitation in the Arctic. Aerosols play a crucial role in cloud formation, cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) and ice-nucleating particles (INPs), influencing rain and snowfall. However, uncertainties remain in the modelling of aerosols and their impact on precipitation due to a lack of high-resolution spatio-temporal observations. This is particularly the case in the central Arctic cryosphere due to the presence of extensive cold, bright snow and ice surfaces coupled with widespread cloud cover.This study addresses the observational data gap and provides an opportunity to refine model simulations at different spatio-temporal scales. We achieve this by using total aerosol optical depth (AOD) datasets generated by the AEROSNOW algorithm over the extensive central Arctic cryosphere. AEROSNOW retrieves AOD data using top-of-atmosphere reflectance measurements obtained through the Advanced Along-Track Scanning Radiometer (AATSR) aboard the ENVISAT satellite, spanning from 2003 to 2011. AEROSNOW integrates an aerosol retrieval algorithm with a rigorous cloud masking scheme and intro-duces a novel quality flagging methodology tailored for the central Arctic region (≥ 72°N).Using the AEROSNOW retrieved dataset for the central Arctic, we evaluate different models participating in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Our results show significant differences in the spatio-temporal aerosol load and its annual and seasonal variations with precipitation. In particular, there is a decrease in aerosol loading that coincides with increased precipitation along the northern periphery of Alaska and the Bering Sea.Significant discrepancies and variations of up to 6.2 mm/day in precipitation are observed between models, with higher aerosol loading leading to lower precipitation and vice versa. Furthermore, the spatially averaged multi-model mean overestimates aerosol concentrations in spring and underestimates them in summer compared to satellite observations. The CMIP6 models do not reproduce the seasonal variations in aerosol distribution seen with AEROSNOW, particularly an increase in aerosol loading during the summer coinciding with the sea ice retreat cycle. These discrepancies may be due to the lack of advanced natural aerosol formation mechanisms in the models, as a consequence of Arctic warming, and exposure to openocean emissions.In summary, our study has led us to speculate that as model sophistication increases, modelled aerosol processes become increasingly uncertain. Ultimately, this investigation has the potential to elucidate the critical link between aerosols and the prevailing rain-dominated Arctic conditions under ongoing Arctic warming in future CMIP projects.
Evaluation of atmospheric forces induced by extreme Bora wind on a high-rise hospital in the coastal city of Trieste, Italy
Authors: Ampatzidis Petros , Cintolesi Carlo , Petronio Andrea , Di Sabatino Silvana
Published: March 2024

Extreme weather events dominate the disaster landscape of the 21st century and disaster risk is becoming systemic with one event overlapping and influencing another in ways that are testing our resilience to the limit. This is particularly true for critical infrastructure, such as hospitals, that are vital to the functioning of society but have received limited attention in terms of investment in prevention, climate change adaptation and risk reduction. One of the most severe weather events, present in mountainous coastal areas is the Bora wind, a strong and often gusty regional katabatic wind generated by cold and dry air spilling down from a mountain range. The Bora wind has been studied extensively from a meteorological point of view. However, there is limited research on its consequences on the critical infrastructure of coastal urban areas, particularly tall buildings that are susceptible to high wind and wind-driven rain. In Europe, strong Bora winds are encountered on the east coast of the Adriatic Sea. The scope of this study is to assess the Bora-wind-induced atmospheric forces exerted on the high-rise Cattinara hospital in Trieste, Italy, a location where strong Bora winds often occur during the autumn and winter seasons and an increased risk of functionality loss is present. High-resolution RANS simulations are performed for the hospital and the surrounding buildings over the complex and mountainous topography of the area. The imposed boundary conditions approximate the extreme February 2012 Bora wind event that saw gusts of more than 40 m/s in the region. The results provide an evaluation of the methodological framework, assess the inherent complexities of atmospheric simulations over intricate landscapes and demonstrate that a comprehensive understanding of the aerodynamic loads is imperative for mitigating potential vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure subjected to such extreme meteorological phenomena. The study is conducted within the remit of the HORIZON-EU project RISKADAPT (Asset Level Modelling of RISKs in the Face of Climate-Induced Extreme Events and ADAPtation) that seeks to provide solutions to support systemic, risk-informed decisions regarding adaptation to climate change induced compound events at the asset level.
Locating the Auckland Volcanic Field's magma reservoir through magma pathway retrogression
Authors: Rivalta Eleonora , Mantiloni Lorenzo , Kilgour Geoff , Hreinsdóttir Sigrún , Eccles Jennifer , Hamling Ian , Rowe Michael
Published: March 2024

The Auckland Volcanic Field (AVF) consists of ~53 volcanoes, distributed over an area of ~ 360 km2. Located within the AVF is Auckland City, New Zealand’s largest population centre (~1.7M people), highlighting the need to adequately model future pre-eruption scenarios for enhanced preparedness. Geological evidence shows that past eruptions were variably explosive and formed maars, lava shields, and tuff rings, largely controlled by the extent of magma-water interaction. Any future eruption from a new vent location within the AVF would cause significant socio-economic impacts, extensive evacuations, and national-scale impacts. Our work aims to constrain the next probable vent location using novel physics-based approaches.Current approaches to identifying the next AVF vent location use statistical analysis to define probability maps. Here we use a novel approach based on physical understanding of dyke propagation and newly developed 3D numerical codes that consider crustal stresses as the main controls on the orientation of dyke pathways. We estimate regional stresses based on GNSS data and consider surface mass redistributions at the Hauraki Rift and other volcano-tectonic structures in the wider area to constrain the overall elastic stress field. We backtrack magma pathways from known vent locations downward through the crust. Pathways are oblique and reach below the Hauraki Gulf or Firth of Thames (~30 km E of Auckland City) at the inferred depth of magma dyke release (35-50 km). We infer a common magma source is physically plausible in that location.Further work will improve the robustness of the model, constrain the spatial spread of vents over time, dyke propagation velocity, and implications for early identification of future volcanic unrest. 
Observing glacier bed topography: the H/V spectral method applied on a dense seismic array as a simple alternative to radar
Authors: Gimbert Florent , Ross Neil , Le Bris Tifenn , Barruol Guilhem , Young Tun Jan , Doyle Samuel , Livingstone Stephen , Sole Andrew , Gilbert Adrien , Ing Ryan , Bagshaw Liz , Prior-Jones Mike , Edwards Laura
Published: March 2024

Accurate knowledge of glacier bed topography is critical for quantifying ice volumes and modelling ice and subglacial hydrology dynamics. Bed topography observations are traditionally obtained from airborne and ice penetrating radar, which offers the crucial advantage of recovering the detailed glacier structure over a range of scales. A main difficulty with radar, however, is that waves can be strongly scattered and attenuated by englacial heterogeneities, in particular by water inclusions, which can potentially limit the applicability of the technique under certain conditions.Here we present a case study on Isunguata Sermia, West Greenland, where we conducted an ice penetrating radar survey together with dense seismic array acquisitions from 87 nodes spread over a 1 km2 area. We show that, in the area of investigation, radar observations were only partially successful in identifying the ice-bed interface, likely due to the thick warm ice, presence of some surface water and near-surfacing crevassing and other englacial structures. The H/V analysis performed over the seismic array yielded surprisingly coherent estimates of ice thickness, along with its spatial variation along and across the glacier. These findings raise questions about the interpretation of traditional radar measurements under certain glacier conditions, and how dense seismic arrays could retrieve bed topography more systematically. 
Unsupervised Deep Learning for Rapid Subsurface Interface Identification using Geophysical Measurements
Authors: Wang Zan , Qi Shengwen , Liu Youshan , Zheng Bowen , Sun Peng , Han Yu
Published: March 2024

Delineating subsurface interfaces is a crucial step in site selection and characterization for various subsurface applications, such as the geologic carbon sequestration, the radioactive waste disposal and hydrocarbon exploration and production. 3D seismic surveys are widely used for identifying subsurface interfaces and geologic features. Due to the large volumes and the complexity of seismic data, manual interpretation of subsurface interfaces is extremely time-consuming, and the interpretation results can be greatly affected by the subjectivity of a particular interpreter. With the latest advances in deep neural networks (DNNs), automatic seismic interpretation methods based on DNNs emerged. Most of the DNN-based seismic interpretation methods are supervised learning methods, which require large amount of labeled data for network training. We have developed an unsupervised learning method with deep fully convolutional networks (FCNs) for rapid subsurface interface identification based on self-learning algorithms, which does not require manual data labeling and specific training datasets. The characteristics of subsurface interfaces are represented as numerical constraints added to the specially designed loss function for constructing the FCN model. Physical constraints are further applied in postprocessing the outputs of the FCN model to improve the resolution of the identified subsurface interfaces. Application of the unsupervised learning method on a real seismic dataset collected at a potential CO2 storage site demonstrates that the proposed method yields rapid and accurate identification of subsurface interfaces with relatively strong acoustic impedance contrast in seismic images. The proposed approach may assist in automatic subsurface interface identification in real time and facilitate building geological models for subsurface applications.
A 1D analytical approach for predicting alongshore spreading of river-delivered sediments on macro-tidal and high wave-energy coastlines
Authors: Sloan Ewan , Dodd Nicholas , Briganti Riccardo
Published: March 2024

Around 60% of global rivers do not form deltas, but relatively little attention has been given to the conditions at river mouths at which delta formation is prevented. Here we present an equation for predicting the spread of river-delivered sediments at coastlines subject to combined high energy waves and tidal ranges, for which delta formation is inhibited. This equation is validated against previous numerical modelling work on an idealised coast with a discharging river using Delft3D. The equation is derived from a mass-conserving bottom-evolution equation, reformulated to a partial differential equation, from which the analytical solution is determined using the method of Eigenfunction expansion.The analytical approach is calibrated against the results of the Delft3D simulations, in order to determine values of two independent variables (downslope diffusion coefficient κ and input width B) controlling the shape of alongshore sediment distribution after a given time. This approach leads to only very small errors in determining alongshore sediment distribution when compared to the computationally expensive Delft3D simulations, and may be calculated in a fraction of the time.
Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on surface water temperatures in semi-arid alpine basins
Authors: Herrero Javier , Collados-Lara Antonio , García-Valdecasas Matilde , Sánchez-Membrives Antonio , Ramón Cintia , Esteban-Parra María Jesús , Pulido-Velázquez David , Rueda Francisco
Published: March 2024

Temperature plays a critical role in the functioning of inland aquatic ecosystems. The metabolic rates of aquatic organisms, their productivity, and, more broadly, the rates of biogeochemical processes are largely determined by water temperature. Hence, understanding the processes that govern temperature in water bodies in response to external factors across daily to multi-year scales is essential. This is particularly urgent in alpine semi-arid basins with substantial human impact and strong influence of snow dynamics, and, especially within the context of global change, where ecosystem integrity is at risk. A process-based model has been developed to simulate water temperature in lakes and rivers at a regional (watershed) scale. The simulation algorithms are tested in the small alpine watershed of the River Genil, upstream of the city of Granada, which includes two water-supply reservoirs (Canales and Quéntar). Urban water demand largely determines withdrawal rates from these reservoirs, thus affecting the thermal dynamics in the water column and downstream reaches. Autonomous temperature sensors have been deployed at different sites and programmed to record hourly data. The model is forced with climate databases (reanalysis, regional climate simulation, and measured data sets) and used in hindcast/forecast exercises to assess the impact of climate change on the thermal regime of inland waters.
Operational Monitoring of Thermal Dynamics in Deep Geothermal Production and Injection Wells with Fiber Optics from the Surface to the Reservoir
Authors: Andy Aurelio , Schölderle Felix , Pfrang Daniela , Zosseder Kai
Published: March 2024

In order to gain insights into the hydraulic and thermal long-term behavior of deep geothermal boreholes during operation, a fiber-optic monitoring (FOM) system was implemented at the Stadtwerke Munich's (SWM) geothermal plant 'Schäftlarnstrasse' in the national project Geothermal-Alliance Bavaria (GAB). The permanently installed fiber optic cables enable continuous measuring of the temperature in boreholes with high spatial and temporal resolution via Distributed Temperature Sensing (DTS) and of acoustics/vibration via Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS). In 2019, one production and one injection well were equipped with FOM in different setups and have been collecting data since then. In the injector, the cable was cemented behind the anchor pipe in the upper section of the borehole, whereas the producer was equipped with a fiber-optic cable until the total depth of the reservoir. Additionally, a fiber-optic gauge provides pressure and temperature at the top of the reservoir in this well.Among other things, precise inflow profiling in the reservoir section of the producer could be carried out using the temperature data, which helps deepen the understanding of the hydraulic behavior of the reservoir. Changes over time in the temperature of the produced thermal water can be traced back to changes in the hydraulically active zones or inflow temperatures in the reservoir. Other factors that influence the wellhead temperature, such as borehole heat losses to the surrounding rock, can be quantified using the DTS data.At the beginning of 2024, a third fiber-optic cable will be installed in an injection well at the Schäftlarnstrasse geothermal site. A similar setup as in the production well will allow for continuous measuring in the entire borehole until total depth (TD) and pressure and temperature from p/T gauges at the top of the reservoir and at TD. Therefore, both production and injection conditions in the reservoir and wellbore will be continuously monitored at all depths using DTS and DAS for the first time.We present the first interpretations of the data collected from the newly installed FOM in the injection well as well as insights into the long-term monitoring of the hydraulic and thermal dynamics in the production well to underline the importance of permanent downhole monitoring to ensure efficient and sustainable use of the geothermal reservoir.
Radio Investigations for Space Environment Research (RISER): An Overview
Authors: Barnes David , Bisi Mario , Fallows Richard , Forte Biagio , Milan Steve , Jackson David , Jackson Bernard , Odstrcil Dusan , Chang Oyuki
Published: March 2024

Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs), and ever-changing solar wind conditions, drive processes in the Earth’s space-environment (the magnetosphere and ionosphere) which can strongly affect satellite communications, navigation systems, and power grids upon which society relies. Mitigation strategies are heavily dependent on accurate forecasting of the likely impact of space-weather conditions on operations. The tracking of plasma structures, and turbulence within, in the inner-heliosphere is now made possible by the LOw Frequency ARray (LOFAR, the world’s largest low-frequency radio-telescope) through observations of the scintillation of radio waves from astronomical sources propagating through these plasma structures. Information obtained through LOFAR can be augmented with in situ measurements from existing missions and the planned ESA Vigil mission to be stationed at L5, as well as other remote-sensing techniques, to provide an unprecedented advance warning of space weather detrimental to society. The Radio Investigations for Space Environment Research (RISER) project will provide a comprehensive understanding of the Earth’s space-environment through the use of novel radio observations and modelling techniques to investigate coupling between solar-driven inner-heliospheric structures and the Earth. RISER will address the following key questions in the space-weather domain:
How can we better attribute magnetospheric-ionospheric response to inner-heliospheric variability?

How well can we establish a direct connection between parameters that characterise structures in the inner-heliosphere with the geo-effectiveness of geomagnetic disturbances?

How can we identify and track plasma structures in the inner-heliosphere using scintillation data from low-frequency radio telescopes in a systematic way before they reach Earth?

What is the value of improved forecasts of adverse space weather conditions when using radio-telescope observations and enhanced science of the inner heliosphere- magnetosphere-ionosphere system?
 
Here, we give an overview of RISER, its high-level objectives, the importance and relevance to advancing our understanding of space-weather science and impacts, as well as a brief overview of the LOFAR-UK upgrades.