bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Nongenomic, endothelium-independent effects of estrogen on human coronary smooth muscle are mediated by type I (neuronal) NOS and PI3-kinase-Akt signaling
Authors: Han Guichun , Ma Handong , Chintala Rajesh , Miyake Katsuya , Fulton David J. R. , Barman Scott A. , White Richard E.
Published: March 2007

Sex steroids exert profound and controversial effects on cardiovascular function. For example, estrogens have been reported to either ameliorate or exacerbate coronary heart disease. Although estrogen dilates coronary arteries from a variety of species, the molecular basis for this acute, nongenomic effect is unclear. Moreover, we know very little of how estrogen affects human coronary artery smooth muscle cells (HCASMC). The purpose of this study was to elucidate nongenomic estrogen signal transduction in HCASMC. We have used tissue (arterial tension studies), cellular (single-channel patch clamp, fluorescence), and molecular (protein expression) techniques to now identify novel targets of estrogen action in HCASMC: type I (neuronal) nitric oxide synthase (nNOS) and phosphatidylinositol 3-kinase (PI3-kinase)Akt. 17β-Estradiol (E2) increased NO-stimulated fluorescence in HCASMC, and cell-attached patch-clamp experiments revealed that stimulation of nNOS leads to increased activity of calcium-activated potassium (BKCa) channels in these cells. Furthermore, overexpression of nNOS protein in HCASMC greatly enhanced BKCa channel activity. Immunoblot studies demonstrated that E2 enhances Akt phosphorylation in HCASMC and that wortmannin, an inhibitor of PI3-kinase, attenuated E2-stimulated channel activity, NO production, Akt phosphorylation, and estrogen-stimulated coronary relaxation. These studies implicate the PI3-kinase/Akt signaling axis as an estrogen transduction component in vascular smooth muscle cells. We conclude, therefore, that estrogen opens BKCa channels in HCASMC by stimulating nNOS via a transduction sequence involving PI3-kinase and Akt. These findings now provide a molecular mechanism that can explain the clinical observation that estrogen enhances coronary blood flow in patients with diseased or damaged coronary arteries.
Physiological and biochemical markers of alveolar epithelial barrier dysfunction in perfused human lungs
Authors: Frank James A. , Briot Raphael , Lee Jae Woo , Ishizaka Akitoshi , Uchida Tokujiro , Matthay Michael A.
Published: March 2007

To study air space fluid clearance (AFC) under conditions that resemble the clinical setting of pulmonary edema in patients, we developed a new perfused human lung preparation. We measured AFC in 20 human lungs rejected for transplantation and determined the contribution of AFC to lung fluid balance. AFC was then compared with air space and perfusate levels of a biological marker of epithelial injury. The majority of human lungs rejected for transplant had intact basal (75%) and β2-adrenergic agonist-stimulated (70%) AFC. For lungs with both basal and stimulated AFC, the basal AFC rate was 19 ± 10%/h, and the β2-adrenergic-stimulated AFC rate was 43 ± 13%/h. Higher rates of AFC were associated with less lung weight gain (Pearson coefficient −0.90, P < 0.0001). Air space and perfusate levels of the type I pneumocyte marker receptor for advanced glycation end products (RAGE) were threefold and sixfold higher, respectively, in lungs without basal AFC compared with lungs with AFC ( P < 0.05). These data show that preserved AFC is a critical determinant of favorable lung fluid balance in the perfused human lung, raising the possibility that β2-agonist therapy to increase edema fluid clearance may be of value for patients with acute lung injury and pulmonary edema. Also, although additional studies are needed, a biological marker of alveolar epithelial injury may be useful clinically in predicting preserved AFC.
Catastrophic Head Injuries in High School and College Football Players
Authors: Boden Barry P. , Tacchetti Robin L. , Cantu Robert C. , Knowles Sarah B. , Mueller Frederick O.
Published: March 2007

Background

Catastrophic head injuries in football are rare but tragic events.

Purpose

To update the profile of catastrophic head injuries in high school and college football players and to describe relevant risk factors.

Study Design

Case series; Level of evidence, 4.

Methods

We reviewed 94 incidents of severe football head injuries reported to the National Center for Catastrophic Sports Injury Research during 13 academic years (September 1989 through June 2002).

Results

In the study period there were an average of 7.23 (standard deviation = 2.05) direct high school and college catastrophic head injuries in scholastic football participants per year. There were 0.67 injuries per 100 000 (95% confidence interval: 0.54, 0.81 per 100 000) high school and 0.21 injuries per 100 000 (95% confidence interval: 0.0, 0.49 per 100 000) college participants for a risk ratio of 3.28 (95% confidence interval: 0.81, 13.3). The injuries resulted in subdural hematoma in 75 athletes, subdural hematoma with diffuse brain edema in 10 athletes, diffuse brain edema in 5 athletes, and arteriovenous malformation or aneurysm in 4 athletes. Fifty-nine percent of the contacts reported that the athlete had a history of a previous head injury, of which 71% occurred within the same season as the catastrophic event. Thirty-nine percent of the athletes (21 of 54) were playing with residual neurologic symptoms from the prior head injury. There were 8 (9%) deaths as a result of the injury, 46 (51%) permanent neurologic injuries, and 36 (40%) serious injuries with full recovery. Most players sustained a major impact to the head either from tackling or being tackled.

Conclusion

The incidence of catastrophic head injuries in football has remained low since the advent of the modern day football helmet in the early 1970s. The incidence of catastrophic head injuries in football is dramatically higher at the high school level than at the college level. Although the reason for this discrepancy is unclear, an unacceptably high percentage of high school players were playing with residual symptoms from a prior head injury. Coaches, athletes, athletic trainers, and medical personnel need to adhere to the guideline that an athlete with any neurologic symptoms from a head injury should be strongly discouraged from returning to play.
ERK1/2 phosphorylation is an independent predictor of complete remission in newly diagnosed adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia
Authors: Gregorj Chiara , Ricciardi Maria R. , Petrucci Maria T. , Scerpa Maria C. , De Cave Fabiana , Fazi Paola , Vignetti Marco , Vitale Antonella , Mancini Marco , Cimino Giuseppe , Palmieri Salvatore , Di Raimondo Francesco , Specchia Giorgina , Fabbiano Francesco , Cantore Nicola , Mosna Federico , Camera Andrea , Luppi Mario , Annino Luciana , Miraglia Eustachio , Fioritoni Giuseppe , Ronco Francesca , Meloni Giovanna , Mandelli Franco , Andreeff Michael , Milella Michele , Foà Robin , Tafuri Agostino
Published: March 2007

Extracellular signal-regulated kinase-1/2 (ERK1/2) is frequently found constitutively activated (p-ERK1/2) in hematopoietic diseases, suggesting a role in leukemogenesis. The aim of this study was to assess the expression and clinical role of p-ERK1/2 in adult acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). In 131 primary samples from adult de novo ALL patients enrolled in the Gruppo Italiano per le Malattie Ematologiche dell'Adulto (GIMEMA) Leucemia Acute Linfoide (LAL) 2000 protocol and evaluated by flow cytometry, constitutive ERK1/2 activation was found in 34.5% of cases; these results were significantly associated with higher white blood cell (WBC) values (P = .013). In a multivariate analysis, p-ERK1/2 expression was an independent predictor of complete remission achievement (P = .027). Effective approaches toward MEK inhibition need to be explored in order to evaluate whether this may represent a new therapeutic strategy for adult ALL patients.
A novel proteoliposomal vaccine elicits potent antitumor immunity in mice
Authors: Popescu Mircea C. , Robb Richard J. , Batenjany Michael M. , Boni Lawrence T. , Neville Mary E. , Pennington Robin W. , Neelapu Sattva S. , Kwak Larry W.
Published: March 2007

Therapeutic vaccination against idiotype is a promising strategy for immunotherapy of B-cell malignancies. Its feasibility, however, is limited by the requirement for a patient-specific product. Here we describe a novel vaccine formulation prepared by simply extracting cell-membrane proteins from lymphoma cells and incorporating them together with IL-2 into proteoliposomes. The vaccine was produced in 24 hours, compared with more labor-intensive and time-consuming hybridoma or recombinant DNA methods. The vaccine elicited T-cell immunity in vivo, as demonstrated by secretion of type 1 cytokines. It protected against tumor challenge at doses of tumor antigen 50 to 100 times lower than that previously observed using either liposomes formulated with IL-2 and secreted lymphoma immunoglobulin or a prototype vaccine consisting of lymphoma immunoglobulin conjugated to keyhole limpet hemocyanin. The increased potency justifies testing similar patient-specific human vaccines prepared using extracts from primary tumor samples.
A phase 2 study of the oral farnesyltransferase inhibitor tipifarnib in patients with refractory or relapsed acute myeloid leukemia
Authors: Harousseau Jean-Luc , Lancet Jeffrey E. , Reiffers Josy , Lowenberg Bob , Thomas Xavier , Huguet Francoise , Fenaux Pierre , Zhang Steven , Rackoff Wayne , De Porre Peter , Stone Richard
Published: March 2007

This phase 2 study evaluated the efficacy and safety of the oral farnesyltransferase inhibitor tipifarnib in adults with refractory or relapsed acute myeloid leukemia (AML). Patients (n = 252) received tipifarnib 600 mg twice a day for 21 days in 28-day cycles. Median age was 62 years; 99 (39%) patients were 65 years or older. Eleven (4%) of 252 patients achieved complete remission (CR) or complete remission with incomplete platelet recovery (CRp; 9 CR and 2 CRp). Nineteen patients (8%), including those who achieved CR/CRp, achieved a reduction in bone marrow blasts to less than 5% blasts. Bone marrow blasts were reduced more than 50% in an additional 8 patients (total = 27; 11%). Median survival was 369 days for patients who achieved CR/CRp. Myelosuppression was the most common adverse event. The most common nonhematologic toxicities were fever, nausea, and hypokalemia. Single-agent treatment with tipifarnib induced durable CR/CRp, which was associated with prolonged survival, in some patients with refractory or relapsed AML. The response rate observed in this heavily pretreated group of patients suggests the requirement to enhance the response rate either by combining tipifarnib with other active agents or determining factors that are predictive of response.
Reciprocal effects of IFN-β and IL-12 on STAT4 activation and cytokine induction in T cells
Authors: Fahey Angela J , Robins R Adrian , Constantinescu Cris S
Published: March 2007

IL-12 is an immunoregulatory cytokine, which promotes Th1 cell differentiation and is a major inducer of IFN-γ. IFN-β, a Type I IFN used in the treatment of multiple sclerosis, has been shown to significantly increase the expression of the anti-inflammatory cytokine IL-10, a major suppressor of Th1 cytokines. The beneficial immunomodulatory effects of IFN-β may in part be a result of its ability to suppress IL-12. However, IL-12 and IFN-β signal via the STAT4 pathway. Our aim was to investigate the relationship between IL-12 and IFN-β by observing the effect of prior exposure to IL-12 or IFN-β on the ability of T cells to subsequently respond to the other cytokine. We report that IFN-β increases IL-12-induced STAT4 phosphorylation and up-regulates IL-12 receptor β1 and β2 expression. However, despite this up-regulation, IFN-β suppressed IL-12-induced IFN-γ expression. Our results suggest that this may be a result of the parallel induction of IL-10 by IFN-β.
Layered Finite Element Analysis of One-Way and Two-Way Concrete Walls with Openings
Authors: Hallinan Philip , Guan Hong
Published: March 2007

Empirical wall design equations provided in major codes of practice are conservative because they do not cover walls that are supported on all four sides or walls with slenderness ratios greater than 30. They do not cover walls that require openings for doors, windows and services. The recognition of such factors in design codes would result in savings in construction costs. This study investigates the effect of side restraints and the presence of openings for reinforced concrete wall panels where axial load eccentricity induces secondary bending. A numerical analysis of such walls is undertaken using the non-linear Layered Finite Element Method (LFEM), and results are compared with eight one-third to one-half scale wall panels tested previously at Griffith University. The LFEM predicts the failure loads, the load-deflection responses, the deformed shapes and the crack patterns of the tested wall panels. Subsequent parametric studies on the ultimate load carrying capacity of 54 one-way and two-way reinforced concrete walls with openings established relationships of failure load with slenderness ratio and eccentricity.
New Structural Irregularity Assessing Index for Seismic Torsional Vibration
Authors: Cai Jian , Pan Donghui
Published: March 2007

In this paper, an energy ratio, i.e. the ratio of torsional energy to lateral energy, is introduced as a new index to assess torsional irregularity of structures. Torsional regularity of structural configuration in elastic range is essential in keeping low level torsional responses of structures to withstand earthquake ground motion. By using a response spectrum method, a simplified one-storied model with different dynamic characteristics is studied to investigate different properties of the energy ratio. The energy ratio is found to be able to reflect the effects of large eccentricity and the closeness of lateral and torsional periods, which are two main sources of intense torsional vibration. Applicability of the energy ratio is further demonstrated by discussions on other code-specified assessing indexes, i.e. the coupled period ratio and the drift ratio. Deduced from the limits of the drift ratio specified in the China's codes, the required magnitudes of the energy ratio for irregularity assessment are proposed. Based on computer programs for structural design, the computation procedures are proposed for the energy ratio of real structures, and the application is then provided with a reinforced concrete structure as an example.
Prediction of Mean and Design Fatigue Lives of Steel Fibrous Concrete Beams in Flexure
Authors: Singh S.P. , Mohammadi Y. , Goel Sanjay , Kaushik S. K.
Published: March 2007

The paper presents results of an investigation carried out to study the flexural fatigue strength of steel fibre reinforced concrete (SFRC). An experimental investigation was planned in which 180 SFRC beam specimens of size 100 × 100 × 500 mm were tested under four-point flexural fatigue loading. The specimen incorporated three different volume fractions i.e. 1.0%, 1.5% and 2.0% of corrugated steel fibres. Each volume fraction incorporated mixed steel fibres of size 0.6 × 2.0 × 25 mm and 0.6 × 2.0 × 50 mm in different proportions. The fatigue-life distributions of SFRC at a given stress level, is shown to approximately follow the two-parameter Weibull distribution. The parameters of the Weibull distribution for fatigue life of SFRC have been obtained from S – N relationships. Mean and design fatigue lives have been obtained for SFRC with different fibre volume fractions, each volume fraction containing different fibre mix proportions. It has been observed that SFRC having 1.0% fibre content with fibre mix proportion of 35% 50 mm + 65% 25 mm long fibres exhibits the highest mean and design fatigue lives.
Theoretical Determination of Subsonic Oscillatory Airforce Coefficients for Cruciform-Tail Configurations
Authors: Cheung C.W.
Published: March 2007

This paper presents the theoretical development of lifting surface theory for the calculation of aerodynamic airforce coefficients for cruciform-tail configurations. The cruciform tail is assumed to vibrate in simple harmonic motion in a subsonic airflow with small amplitude so that linearised aerodynamic theory is valid. Linearised integral equations are formulated that relate the normal velocities with the loadings on the lower and upper fins, and on the half-tailplanes. These integral equations are solved numerically for the loadings and then the generalised airforce coefficients when the cruciform tail oscillates at general frequencies in any antisymmetric mode. The configuration has a common junction chord and the condition is satisfied that the sum of the loadings at the junction is zero. Numerical results are compared with those obtained from Doublet-Lattice (NLRI) method and other theoretical methods wherever possible.
University students' academic performance: An integrative conceptual framework and empirical analysis
Authors: Fenollar Pedro. , Román Sergio. , Cuestas Pedro J.
Published: March 2007

Background. The prediction and explanation of academic performance and the investigation of the factors relating to the academic success and persistence of students are topics of utmost importance in higher education.

Aims. The main aim of the present study is to develop and test a conceptual framework in a university context, where the effects of achievement goals, self‐efficacy and class size on academic performance are hypothesized to be direct and indirect through study strategies.

Sample. Participants were 553 students of different faculties from a university in Spain.

Method. Pre‐existing scales were used to develop the questionnaire. Questionnaires were group‐administered in 21 classes during the first 2 weeks of May (i.e. about 1 month before the final examination). At the end of the academic year, students' grades were obtained from professors of each course.

Results. Data were analysed through structural equation modelling. The results of the structural model provided support for most of the hypothesized relationships. Achievement goals and self‐efficacy had no direct effects on performance, but results from the model comparison suggested that a mediational model provided a better fit to the data.

Conclusions. Our study provides support for the key mediational role of study strategies in the effect of achievement goals and self‐efficacy on academic performance. Self‐efficacy seems to have the strongest indirect effect on performance. Mastery goals play a key role increasing deep processing and effort, and in turn affecting performance. Academic performance tends to diminish with increasing class size.
Race and the decision making of juries
Authors: Sommers Samuel R.
Published: March 2007

The relationship between race and jury decision making is a controversial topic that has received increased attention in recent years. While public and media discourse has focused on anecdotal evidence in the form of high‐profile cases, legal researchers have considered a wide range of empirical questions including: To what extent does the race of a defendant affect the verdict tendencies of juries? Is this influence of race comparable for jurors of different races? In what ways does a jury's racial composition affect its verdict and deliberations? The present review examines both experimental and archival investigations of these issues. Though the extant literature is not always consistent and has devoted too little attention to the psychological mechanisms underlying the influence of race, this body of research clearly demonstrates that race has the potential to impact trial outcomes. This is a conclusion with important practical as well as theoretical implications when it comes to ongoing debates regarding jury representativeness, how to optimize jury performance, jury nullification and racial disparities in the administration of capital punishment.
Plans for the 1970 census of population and housing
Authors: Kaplan David L.
Published: March 2007

The Nineteenth Decennial Census of the United States, covering both population and housing, will be conducted as of April 1, 1970. Planning, testing, and preparatory activities have been underway since early in the decade. Extensive discussions with users of census data led to relatively minor changes in subject content as compared to 1960, but a major increase in the amount of statistics to be tabulated, especially for small geographic areas. For about 60 to 65 percent of the population, the information will be collected through a new mail-out/mail-back system. The rest of the country will be covered by house-to-house canvass. Special efforts to alleviate the serious problem of underenumeration are being undertaken, particularly in the hard-to-enumerate portions of the big cities. The geographic program includes an “address coding guide” through which location identification in most urban areas can be made to specific side of block; this will permit tabulations for new types of small areas. Processing of the data will be performed with the Census Bureau’s Fosdic equipment and advanced computers. Dissemination of the census results will be in the traditional type of printed reports but also, in substantially greater subject and area detail, through magnetic tape, special printouts, etc. To help users exploit the potentialities of the latter material, the Bureau has instituted a “data access” informational program. As in previous censuses, there will be a number of studies to evaluate the 1970 procedures and results.
The end of rapid increase in the use of oral anovulants? Some problems in the interpretation of time series of oral use among married women
Authors: Allingham John D. , Balakrishnan T. R. , Kantner John F.
Published: March 2007

Several problems in the interpretation of time series of oral anovulant usage are discussed, among them the shifting marriage-duration distribution over time. Standardization fails to negate the conclusion that the rate of increase in the proportion of women using orals has slackened since January 1966. Separate analyses by duration-specific rates of use and by marriage cohorts show that the two factors sustaining the initial spectacular growth rate in the use of orals-the ever—higher initial use rates of new marriage cohorts and the rapid adoption of orals among earlier cohorts at later durations—have lost their sustaining force. Further analysis indicates that concern over the pill as a health hazard is a major deterrent to substantial increase in oral usage. A final distribution of women by risk status with respect to oral use, and current and prospective oral use, shows that under present circumstances the maximum oral use rate will be considerably less than unity.
Recent changes in Negro fertility
Authors: Farley Reynolds
Published: March 2007

Crude birth rates for the Negro population of the United States indicate that fertility declined while Negroes remained in the South and them climbed in the last twenty-five years as Negroes became urbanized. Cohort rates show more precisely the effects of the Depression upon childbearing as well as the magnitude and persistence of the post-Depression rise in fertility. More Negro women now become mothers, average family size has increased, and the proportion of women bearing six, seven, or eight children has risen. Negro fertility has risen despite the urbanization of Negroes and improvements in their socio-economic characteristics.

Negro fertility rates present the paradox of falling when demographic transition theory would predict the maintenance of high rates and then rising when a decline would be expected. Urbanization does not appear to have reduced Negro fertility.

Traditionally, urban living has dampened childbearing in two ways—first, health conditions in cities were inferior to those of rural areas, and thus urbanization affected fecundity adversely; second, city residents are more likely to know about and adopt birth control than rural residents.

Negroes migrated to cities at the very time when diseases were being controlled and when public health and welfare facilities were being expanded to serve all residents. This has contributed to higher Negro fertility rates. If fertility rates are to fall because of family planning, not only must birth control be available but there must be a desire to limit family size. Such a desire may be linked to opportunities for social mobility. Negroes have not been assimilated into urban society as previous in-migrant groups were, and opportunities for mobility have been restricted. For these reasons Negroes may be slow to adopt stable monogamous families and the intentional control of fertility.
Fertility Planning Status: United States, 1965
Authors: Ryder Norman B. , Westoff Charles F.
Published: March 2007

Data concerning the planning circumstances of the interval preceding each pregnancy, collected from a national sample of 4810 married women, are used to establish the fertility planning status of each respondent as one of five classes: (1) never-pregnant; (2) number failure; (3) at least one timing failure; (4) at least one timing success; (5) neither success nor failure. For the ever-pregnant women who intended no more children, 32 percent of the exposed were number failures and 62 percent of the rest were timing failures. For the ever-pregnant women who intended more children, 67 percent of the exposed were timing failures. Women not exposed to the risk of timing failure because they claimed to want all of their pregnancies as soon as possible had similar characteristics to women reporting failures; accordingly the reliability of their reports is suspect. The probabilities of failure are well-patterned by race, religion and education: higher for Blacks than for Whites; within the latter, higher for Catholics than for Non-Catholics; and inversely related to education, except among White Catholics. Although uniformly high, the proportions classified as failures are probably under-estimates of the true values for completed families, because of misreporting and continuing exposure to risk, subsequent to interview.
Southern Negro Migration: Social and Economic Components of an Ecological Model
Authors: Stinner William F. , De Jong Gordon F.
Published: March 2007

This paper considers social and economic correlates of age-specific 1950-1960 net migration of Negro males from a sample of 150 southern counties. A model is developed with five components: (1) economic activity and urbanization, (2) white traditionalism, (3) demographic and ecological pressure, (4) nonwhite poverty, and (5) nonwhite home ownership. The dominant migration forces, as evidenced by correlations with component indicator variables, are the “pull” factor of change in nonprimary industrial employment, the “push” factor of population pressure in the nonwhite rural-farm sector, and the “push” of white traditionalism. However, the significance of model components varied when analyzed along age and industrial development continua. In the younger age groupings, industrial employment growth, population pressure, and white traditionalism were dominant migratory forces while in the older age groupings, industrial employment growth and non-home ownership were most significant. For Negro males in agricultural counties, the major migration propellents appeared to be the “push” of population pressure in the rural farm sector and non-ownership of homes. On the other hand the statistical explanation for Negro migration in more industrialized southern counties rests primarily with the “pull” of increased employment in non-primary industries along with population pressure. The importance of the findings for migration theory is discussed.
Note on some problems in interpreting migration data from the 1960 Census of population
Authors: Miller Ann R.
Published: March 2007

Movements of young men into and out of the armed forces and youth entering and leaving the college population are an important component of the migration between 1955 and 1960 recorded in the 1960 Census of the, United States. Measures of the migration behavior of persons in the armed forces or attending college at the end of the period (1960) are presented to show the substantial volume of these special types of movement. Under 1960 Census procedures, no corresponding measures of the migration behavior of persons in the armed forces or attending college at the beginning of the period (1955) can be obtained. A sizeable number of the “migrants,” especially the young and well educated, identified in the 1960 Censuses must be persons who were in the armed forces or away at college in 1955 and, by 1960, had completed their military service or their education and returned to their previous places of residence.
Age at marriage as a variable in socio-economic differentials in fertility
Authors: Bumpass Larry
Published: March 2007

Earlier studies have pointed out that socio-economic differentials in fertility depend upon both religion and farm background. These studies report a negative relation between fertility and socio-economic status for non-Catholic American couples in contrast to a positive relation for Catholics. Likewise, a negative differential for American couples with farm background has been observed in contrast to no differential for twogeneration urbanites. Age at marriage is a third such interaction variable: the strong negative socio-economic differential observed when wife’s age at marriage is under 19 diminishes with advancing age at marriage and becomes positive for wives who married at age 23 or older. Moreover, for both non-Catholics and Catholics, couples with and without farm background, the differential by wife’s education is negative when wife’s age at marriage is young, positive when her age at marriage is old. Both sociological factors (the incidence of non-familial adult roles) and differential fecundity appear to underlie the interaction. The analysis is based on reports of once-married, white, nonfarm wives aged 30 to 39 included in the 1955 or 1960 Growth of American Families Studies or the 1965 National Fertility Study (approximately 1,000 in each survey).
Fertility and economic activity of women in Guatemala city, 1964
Authors: Gendell Murray , Maravlglla Maria Nydia , Kreitner Philip C.
Published: March 2007

Data from a five percent census sample reveal that in Guatemala City in 1964 economically active women, especially domestic servants, had lower cumulative fertility than inactive women, partly because larger proportions of them had never married and were childless. However, even among ever married mothers there was a substantial differential, which was not due to differences in age at first birth. With respect to all women, cross tabulation and regression analysis show that age, marital status and educational attainment were more strongly associated with fertility than was activity status, but the latter also had a significant net association. Selection for sterility was not likely. Being contrary to expectations expressed in the literature, the very low fertility of the domestics received further attention. Live-in domestics had considerably lower fertility than those who lived out, which was also the case in the United States in 1960. These data and other evidence strongly suggest that this differential is due to a widespread employer preference for single or childless women. The concept of role incompatibility is therefore inapplicable to domestic servants. These findings add to the considerable evidence showing lower fertility among economically active women in large urban places in Latin America.
The decline in mortality in British Guiana, 1911-1960
Authors: Mandle Jay R.
Published: March 2007

In this paper an attempt is made to describe the pattern of declining mortality in British Guiana between 1911 and 1960. Specifically we identify the disease-specific mortality rates whose declines contributed most to the overall improvement, we consider the possibility that changing economic circumstances may have contributed to the decline in mortality, and we survey the improvements in public health facilities which occurred during the period. Broadly our conclusion is that improvements in public health facilities and not economic advances were responsible for the dramatic decline in mortality which was experienced. Before 1940 these advances took the form of improvements in the quality of the country’s water supplies, in methods of disposing of waste, and in medical facilities especially on the colony’s sugar estates. In addition, there was an advance in the dissemination of information with respect to pre- and post-natal care. In the postwar period British Guiana’s famous D.D.T. experiment was the most important reason death rates continued to fall.
The geometric mean of the age-specific death rates as a summary index of mortality
Authors: Schoen Robert
Published: March 2007

Even though a single summary index of mortality can never replace the set of age-specific death rates, it has been found to be extremely useful for a wide variety of purposes. Such indexes are generally one of two types: aggregative indexes, such as directly standardized rates which reflect absolute differences between corresponding age-specific mortality rates; and average of relatives indexes which reflect proportional differences between those rates. The choice of index depends upon the purposes for which it is to be used, and is important as different indexes can produce very different results. While directly standardized rates are widely used, they depend upon the selection of an appropriate standard population and give disproportionately heavy weight to the high ages. Average of relatives indexes give equal weight to all ages, but are infrequently used as no index of that type has gained wide acceptability. This paper recommends the use of the geometric mean of the age-specific mortality rates as such an index, and shows that this index is readily calculable, unbiased, needs no standard population, is directly comparable to all other indexes so calculated, and accurately reflects exponential mortality patterns.
The effect of the Great Blackout of 1965 on births in New York City
Authors: Udry J. Richard
Published: March 2007

A comparison of the number of births in New York City nine months after the Great Blackout of 1965 with comparable periods for the previous five years shows no increase in births associated with the blackout.
Subjective efficacy and ideal family size as predictors of favorability toward birth control
Authors: Williamson John B.
Published: March 2007

This study is an assessment of the relevance of subjective efficacy and ideal family size as predictors of favorability toward birth control. The samples considered are male factory workers in five developing nations. The effects of ideal family size and subjective efficacy are generally strong relative to those of education and the other social variables that are considered. The focus of the study is an analysis of whether subjective efficacy and ideal family size function more as independent determinants or more as intervening variables. Overall these psychological variables function more as independent determinants than as intervening variables, but in some samples these two functions are equally important.
Stable age by region distributions
Authors: Feeney Griffith M.
Published: March 2007

If the pattern of fertility, mortality and interregional migration exhibited by the United States population during 1950–60 were to continue in the future, the proportions of persons in the various age groups and regions would fluctuate from decade to decade. These fluctuations would become less marked with time, however, and eventually all the proportions would stabilize at certain fixed values. This collection of values may be called astable age by region composition corresponding to the given schedule of fertility, mortality and migration. The same phenomenon may be observed when individuals move between socioeconomic categories as, for example, socioeconomic status or educational attainment levels. The substantial differences between these various situations conceal remarkable similarities. In each case the continued operation of schedules of fertility, mortality and mobility between categories may result in a stable composition. The purpose of this paper is to shed some light on the nature of these stable compositions, on the interrelation between their various components, and on their relation to the patterns of fertility, mortality and mobility which generate them.
Estimators of a type I geometric distribution from observations on conception times
Authors: Majumdar H. , Sheps Mindel C.
Published: March 2007

In order to study distributions of fecundability, Potter and Parker fitted a Pearson Type I geometric distribution (with parametersa andb) to data from the Princeton Fertility Study. They, and subsequently other authors, estimateda andb from the observed moments of the month of first conception. A critical analysis of this method has shown that moment estimators ofa andb are moderately reliable only within a specified range of values ofa. Outside this range, either the estimators are extremely inefficient or their variances are not defined at all. Caution should therefore be taken in adopting this procedure. Furthermore, no moment estimate is defined whena is less than 2. It seems preferable to derive maximum likelihood estimates which have certain optimal properties and are defined for all permissible (i.e. positive) values ofa andb.

For large samples, we here present: the covariance matrix (where defined) of the moment estimators, methods of obtaining maximum likelihood estimates and their covariance matrix, and the variances of estimates of specified moments of the fecundability of the sample. Results were obtained for three sets of data; in all cases, the maximum likelihood estimates fit the data better than do the moment estimates. Despite a substantial improvement, however, the fit is still poor for the two sets of data from the Princeton Fertility Study. Possible explanations are: a) that the departures from the assumption of constant fecundability for each couple are sufficient to produce the poor fit, b) that the data are inaccurate, or c) that the method of defining the sample of women from whom the data were obtained resulted in an over-representation of short conception times. The relative importance of these factors is difficult to establish.
Elementary models for population growth and distribution analysis
Authors: Hudson John C.
Published: March 2007

A version of the Lotka-Volterra interaction model is adapted to describe population growth and migration processes in a two-region system. The regions are identified as a metropolis and its non-metropolitan hinterland. Several conditions on growth and migration regimes are imposed. The time behavior of the systems are analyzed, noting especially situations where total depopulation or population explosion eventually occur in one or both populations. Neither growth control nor migration control alone results in a condition of long-run stability in both regions. If at least a momentary condition of zero growth is achieved in both regions, it is possible to maintain finite populations if each population follows a logistic natural growth process and migration flow is proportional to the volume of interaction. It is necessary also that the natural increase limitation is strong relative to migration rates. This result holds even if one population has a net migration advantage over the other.
Recent developments in seasonally adjusting vital statistics
Authors: Rosenberg Harry M.
Published: March 2007

Birth rates, marriage rates, and death rates computed on a monthly basis have exhibited relatively stable seasonal patterns over a period of years. Elimination of these seasonal fluctuations facilitates the description and interpretation of month-to-month changes in the underlying trend of the rates. Several methods have recently been developed, using an electronic computer, to identify and remove the seasonal component from time series of monthly data. The methods are basically adaptations of a standard technique—the ratio-to-moving average method—for seasonally adjusting time series.

The application of seasonal adjustment programs by electronic computer to vital statistics yields useful information about their seasonal component and provides a means to estimate the trend of current as well as retrospective data. Seasonally adjusted birth, marriage, and death rates for recent years are shown.

Continuing research should yield better approximations of the trend for birth and marriages and improved methods for isolating the epidemic component of mortality time series.
A study in family planning communication—Direct mailing
Authors: Bhatia Brajesh , Dubey Dinesh C. , Devgan Avtar K.
Published: March 2007

It is sometimes stated that direct mailing to individuals in developing countries like India may be wasteful due to the low literacy rate among village people. Direct mailing is a relatively new development in India and comparatively a newer channel of communication. An exploratory study was carried out by the Central Family Planning Institute to test this hypothesis. The observations made showed that direct mailing is practical, controllable, inexpensive, and useful.

The information provided by direct mailing seems to cross the barriers of illiteracy. Based on this experience, the Central Family Planning Institute has initiated a large-scale communication action research project in Meerut district in North India where the impact of direct mailing on specific groups is being studied further. It is hoped that such studies would help in developing prototype information material and would provide a methodology to supplement the available channels of communication in a nation-wide family planning program.
Economic development and fertility
Authors: Heer David M.
Published: March 2007

Two schools of theorists have been concerned with the effect of economic development on fertility. One school has contended that economic development has an inhibiting effect on fertility. The demographic transition which has occurred among the non-developed countries confirms their viewpoint. Another school of thought, including in its members Thomas Malthus, has believed that economic development promoted fertility. Much empirical evidence may also be brought to bear to support this viewpoint.

The present paper attempts to reconcile these viewpoints. It is hypothesized that the direct effect of economic development is to increase fertility. However, various factors which usually accompany the process of economic development serve to reduce fertility. These include an increase in the level of education and a reduction in infant and childhood mortality. Making use of data for 41 nations pertaining to the decade of the 1950's, it is found that fertility is directly associated with per capita net national product when controls for other relevant variables are in8tituted. On the other hand, per capita newspaper circulation is inversely related to fertility, and infant mortality is directly related.

If the hypothesis advanced in this paper is correct, relatively large governmental expenditures on health and education will enhance the reduction in fertility obtainable from an increase in national economic level alone.
Contributions of natality models to program planning and evaluation
Authors: Sheps Mindel C.
Published: March 2007

This paper is an attempt to describe and assess the contributions made by the newer quantitative models of natality to program planning and development. Considerable interest in models of natality is being reflected in reports of a large variety of ideas, suggestions, and proposed models. In view of this current activity, any assessment made now of the contributions of these models can be only tentative and should consider also prospects for the future.

The present approach to assessment will be made in three parts: a description of recent developments in natality models, a discussion of the contributions of newer models, and a consideration of prospects for the future. The discussion applies not only to models whose primary focus is on natality but also to more general models that investigate natality among other processes.
A computer model of family building based on expected values
Authors: Potter Robert G. , Sakoda James M.
Published: March 2007

A computerized probability model of family building is described. Called FERMOD, the model is designed to follow the changing distribution of children ever born and birth intervals of a large homogeneous population as it moves through the reproductive period. Use of the model presupposes assumptions about such factors as risks of fetal wastage, lengths of pregnancy, and postdelivery amenorrhea conditional to outcome of pregnancy, length of reproductive period, fecundability, desired family size, preferred birth spacing!, and effectiveness of contraception. Use of FERMOD is illustrated in a limited application to United States fertility. Relations to other models are briefly discussed.
Validity of centenarian data in the 1960 Census
Authors: Myers Robert J.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the question of how many genuine centenarians there actually are in the United States as compared with those reported in the census. It is concluded that the numbers of centenarians shown in various United States censuses are definite overstatements of the number of true centenarians. It seems likely that instead of the 10,326 centenarians reported in the 1960 census there were at most only about 3,700. Overstatement of ages seems to be particularly the case among those who claim to be aged 110 or over, and it is believed that there probably are no persons who are actually this old.

The analysis has been made by projecting, through the me of population life table survival factors, the populations reported cit carious advanced age groups in one census to the next census and then comparing the results with the corresponding number reported in the latter census for the same age cohort. In general, the enumerated populations at ages below 95 are reasonably close to the projected populations, especially for white persons. On the other hand, at ages 95 and over—especially for centenarians—the enumerated populations significantly exceed the projected ones.

As a subsidiary part of the analysis, the paper points out the significant differences at the older ages between the “full count” age distribution in the 1960 census and the corresponding “inflated 25 per cent sample” one. This is a subject that bears further investigation and explanation.

The paper also discusses centenarians on the social security benefit rolls and concludes that the present data cannot be considered of substantial accuracy with regard to genuine centenarians, particularly the oldest ones. In a number of years, however, this program will provide excellent data, became the individuals involved will have been on the benefit rolls for many years and will have had their ages proved with reasonable accuracy.