bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The Impact of High Unemployment on Bargaining Structure
Authors: Brown William
Published: March 2007

The rise in unemployment in Western industrialised countries might be expected to have major consequences for the structure of their collective bargaining. The paper addresses the question through a consideration of the British private sector. Since the Second World War this has movedfrom a reliance on multi-employer, industry-wide agreements, superficially similar to those still prevailing in the rest of Western Europe, to a mixed system in which single-employer agreements dominate, similar to that existing in the United States. The coming of high unemployment might be expected to lead to a reversion to multi-employer bargaining. It would provide employers with the opportunity to develop greater solidarity and trade unions would be able to fall back on the security of a minimum wage at a time when shop steward organisation is weak. In fact no such reversion is occurring. The explanation lies in the alternative strategy adopted by employers of using company bargaining to isolate their workforces from the labour market and the labour movement.
Strategic Rivalries, Protracted Conflict, and Crisis Escalation
Authors: COLARESI MICHAEL , THOMPSON WILLIAM R.
Published: March 2007

Underlying the emerging interest in the role of rivalry processes as antecedents to interstate conflict is the simple idea that conflict within the constraints of rivalry works differently than conflict outside of rivalry. In this article, we inspect the concepts of protracted conflict, as developed within the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) project, and rivalry, and discuss some of their applications to crisis escalation. The protracted conflict and rivalry concepts are not identical, but they do overlap in terms of their emphases on historical context, serious goal incompatibilities, and stakes that might be resolved coercively. Developing an argument for the concept of rivalry possessing fewer limitations than protracted conflict, we proceed to analyze and test the interaction between rivalry and other variables, again making use of an ICB escalation model, when predicting crisis escalation to war. Throughout, our basic question concerns what role interstate rivalry plays in crisis behavior. Are the crises of rivals more lethal than those of non-rivals? If so, can we pinpoint why that is the case? We find that rivalry not only makes escalation more likely, but also significantly interacts with more traditional predictors of conflict, such as capability ratios, the number of actors in a crisis, democracy, and the issues under contention.
The Liberal Peace and Conflictive Interactions: The Onset of Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1950-78
Authors: JUNGBLUT BERNADETTE M. E. , STOLL RICHARD J.
Published: March 2007

Over the past few years, there has been an increasing focus on the connection at the dyadic level between democracy, interdependence, and international conflict. This has led to some contention, with scholars taking different positions on both substantive and methodological matters. This article seeks to advance this literature by building explicitly on the work of Oneal & Russett. It adds an additional facet to this literature: exploring the impact of conflictive interactions on the chances of a dyad experiencing conflict. A conflictive interaction is the presence of a conflict below the level at which military force is used. The question is whether the issue at stake in a conflictive interaction influences the chances of the dyad experiencing a militarized interstate dispute (MID). The scope of the research is all dyads from 1950 to 1978, with observations at the quarter-year. Results are generally consistent with Oneal & Russett. However, there are several differences. First, the effect of joint democracy, while negative, is not statistically significant (this may be an artifact of our research design). Second, the coefficient for the higher trade-to-GDP ratio, while positive as in their work, is statistically significant here. But trade does reduce conflict (as embodied in the lower trade-to-GDP ratio) even when including the `peaceyears' correction for temporal dependence. As for the impact of issue area, conflictive interactions involving issues of `high politics' increase the chances of a dispute. Thus, elements of both `high politics' and the liberal peace have independent impacts on the chances of an MID outbreak.
Review Essay : The Death of Regulation in International Economic Relations
Authors: Nore Petter
Published: March 2007

The present instability in the world financial system was not inevitable. It is the direct result of a number of decisions (or rather non-decisions) for which the US in particular must be held responsible. The main prerequisite for regaining any form of system stability is that the US resumes its hegemony and leadership. Any hope of a wider international solution is both unrealistic and unworkable. Such is the basic thesis in Susan Strange's Casino Capitalism. The book gives a number of insightful observations concerning the driving forces of today's international financial system. But in discussing the consequences of the new financial order it skirts some of the more troubling facts concerning the ability of the US to exert the leadership called for by Ms. Strange.
An Analysis of Coercion
Authors: Airaksinen Timo
Published: March 2007

Threats and coercion occur in conflict situations. Sometimes mere force and violence are applied. But people also make offers in order to exercise their power. Coercion is characterized as such rational social interaction and exercise of power that the weaker party is threatened by the stronger party. The weaker party will suffer a loss whatever it does, and the stronger party will gain from such action Two different interpretations of coercion are possible: descriptive and normative. In many cases, both interpretations apply to a given case, as Robert Nozick has shown The problem is that this creates a harmful ambiguity in the sense that one and the same case may involve both an offer and a threat. This is impossible. The weaker party is either threatened or is presented with an offer. It is actually very difficult to distinguish analytically between threats and offers, although morally the difference is all important. This paper presents a theory of how such a distinction can be made and analyzes a number of detailed examples as test cases. It is argued that the victim of coercion has a choice between two disequilibrium situations. Offers are different in this respect. Coercion is compared with exploitation. Some coercion is morally justifiable. This feature is also difficult to understand because coercion is always a prima facie evil strategy. The final result is that in many cases a concept like coercion cannot be applied in any value-free manner. This suggestion has deep methodological consequences for social science. Some social science concepts have value elements in their deep structure.
Ethnic Conflicts in South Asia: The Case of Sri Lanka and the Indian Peace-keeping Force (IPKF)
Authors: Rupesinghe Kumar
Published: March 2007

The paper attempts to formulate a conceptual framework for understanding the nature of the ethnic conflicts that have become endemic to South Asian social formations. Emphasis is put on the identification of mechanisms that need to be evolved and consolidated if these conflicts are to be resolved. Ethnic stratification in these societies is placed and analysed within the wider context of protracted social conflicts in post-colonial state formations under the transition to capitalism In the second part of the paper an attempt is made to concretize this conceptual framework in an on-going conflict in the region — namely the case of Sri Lanka and the role of the Indian Peace-keeping Forces (IPKF) The Indo-Sri Lankan accord, which recognizes the Sri Lankan state as a multi-ethnic, multi-lingual society, is examined along with the various problems and prospects pertaining to the process of the restoration of peace and normalcy on the island The specific role of the IPKF in carrying out its mandate is analysed within the context of the internal processes that need to be activated if the Indo-Sri Lankan accord is to pave the way for long-lasting peace.
Neutrality, European Community and World Peace: The Case of Austria
Authors: Binter Josef
Published: March 2007

In a rejoinder to Bill McSweeney (JPR 3/88) it is argued that from a peace-political perspective, Ireland cannot serve as a model for the `Euro-neutrals' (Austria, Finland, Sweden, and Switzerland). This is particularly true with regard to Austria, which is planning to enter into negotiations with the European Community (EC) on possible membership in the EC in order to meet the challenges presented by the Community's plans for a `frontier-free' internal market by 1992. Any discussion about membership of neutral states in the EC should also include the general `international' context of the political order in postwar Europe as well as the `intra-national' dimensions of a country's specific history and identity. At this time, a unilateral accession of Austria to the EC would both undermine the credibility of Austria's `positive neutrality policy' and the possibility of a joint, coherent, and effective policy of all the continental European neutrals.
The Economic Effects of Military Expenditure in Third World Countries
Authors: Fontanel Jacques
Published: March 2007

Three recent books by three experts on defence economics analyse the economic impact of military expenditure on economic growth and development in Less Developed Countries (LDCs). Saadet Deger's theoretical economic analysis betrays a strong bias against militarism and militarization in contemporary society. Nicole Ball presents a more general analysis, studying a large number of concrete cases, and taking their political and sociological characteristics into account. Both Deger and Ball see armament as a cause of underdevelopment. Robert Looney engages mainly in econometric analysis. He provides a comprehensive analysis of data from 77 LDCs, distinguishing between producers and non-producers of armaments. Looney's empirical results indicate that domestic political-bureaucratic influences are more important than international rivalries, and that the economic environment of arms producers differs significantly from that of non-producers. To us, however, these results seem unconvincing: data are incomplete, the econometric methods employed are very simple, and the theoretical background is weak. As regards economic analysis, Deger's study seems more rigorous, but its assumptions are heavily slanted in favour of the ideas of the peace research movement. Nicole Ball's analysis is the most interdisciplinary of the three, and also more empirical, historical and descriptive than the others. These three important books should be read by every specialist on defence problems. Their various approaches, their different perceptions of the economic impact of military expenditure and their different philosophical backgrounds provide a broader view of the economics of defence.
Regional Military-Security Cooperation in the Third World: A Conceptual Analysis of the Relevance and Limitations of ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations)
Authors: ACHARYA AMITAV
Published: March 2007

In the Third World, regional military-security cooperation has evolved through three frameworks. The advent of the Cold War saw the emergence of two competing frameworks, one of which may be termed `autonomous' and the other, `hegemonic'. A review of these frameworks and their practical manifestations points to some important lessons concerning the limitations of regional military-security cooperation in the Third World. By using these lessons as a conceptual framework, the paper analyses the role of ASEAN, which the paper finds as a third framework in the evolutionary adaptation of regional military-security cooperation in the Third World. Within this framework, the four main criteria of evaluation applied to ASEAN are: (1) ASEAN's role in intra-member conflict resolution, (2) the structure of military-security cooperation within ASEAN, (3) the types of military-security cooperation undertaken by the ASEAN members, and (4) the conflict between ASEAN's professed aspirations for regional autonomy versus the need felt by its members for great power security guarantees. On the basis of such an evaluation, the paper establishes the major features and limitations of ASEAN and examines whether these are similar to some other contemporary subregional groupings in the Third World groupings.
Postwar Arms Control
Authors: Tanner Fred
Published: March 2007

This article examines the intersection between war termination and arms control leading to postwar arms control. The following two questions are explored: To what extent do war outcomes condition postwar arms control? Do arms arrangements that emerge from armed conflicts improve the postwar order in the long term? The article establishes a typology of war outcomes in function of their effects on arms control. Most armed conflicts do not create conditions favourable to lasting arms control. The examined cases that include, inter alia, Germany's disarmament after Versailles, arms restriction agreements after the Yom Kippur War, and Iraq's partial disarmament after the Gulf War, show that arms control efforts after wars tend to be linked more to the process of ending a hot conflict than to the construction of a stable postwar regime. In asymmetrical outcomes of war (i.e. with a clear winner and loser), the chances for a lasting agreement on armament are very small. The coercive nature of such agreements leaves little ground for extension to a broader, multilateral arms control agreement. In symmetrical outcomes of war (i.e. conflicts that end in stalemate), there is no fertile ground for armament control either. The temporary character of symmetrical war endings prevents cooperation between the former belligerents in areas that would affect their military capabilities. But, symmetrical war termination can produce confidence and stability through disengagement arrangements, provided that the parties are prepared to accept and comply with cooperative verification measures. The article concludes that the chances for postwar arms control may improve in the future due to the enlargement of the normative consensus resulting from the growing number of peacetime arms control regimes.
Civil Reconstructions of Military Technology: The United States and Russia
Authors: Cronberg Tarja
Published: March 2007

With the end of the Cold War, the relationship between military and civil technologies is being radically restructured. In the USA, the new paradigm is `dual-use', replacing `spinoff' as the main understanding of the relationship between military and civil technologies. A consequence is the re-integration of the industrial technological base of the military and the civilian sectors, and a complete redefinition of the task of the military industries and their role in technological development. Key concepts here are critical technologies, technology assessment, prototyping and flexible production. In Russia, because of the lack of strong civil actors in the vacuum succeeding the collapse of the Soviet Union, a different development track is emerging. As few examples exist of Western joint ventures, and since conversion is facing both financial and organizational barriers, the conversion problem has been reformulated. The main focus is no longer on conversion of military facilities and know-how for civilian uses. The emerging paradigm implies export of weapons inter alia, to finance conversion. However, such military exports are now justified with reference to commercial concerns. The task is to integrate Russia within the world economy and to gain access to foreign currency. This article sees these reconstructions of military technology in a theoretical perspective, as a result of which a new research agenda for peace studies emerges.
How Democracies Use Intervention: A Neglected Dimension in Studies of the Democratic Peace
Authors: KEGLEY CHARLES W. , HERMANN MARGARET G.
Published: March 2007

Confidence has grown in the finding that democracies do not wage war against one another. Two decades of empirical investigation that support this proposition, in conjunction with the recent expansion of the democratic community, have understandably inspired hope in the `democratic peace' envisioned by Immanuel Kant and Woodrow Wilson. This article collates three streams of previously unexamined evidence that speak to the promise of this hope. Looking cross-nationally at the incidence of overt military intervention and employing two definitions of democracy, the research explores how democratic states have used this instrument of coercive diplomacy in the 1974-91 period. The study concludes with a discussion about the role that intervention might play in the preservation of peace in the post-Cold War era.
Defense Expenditures and Economic Growth in Israel: The Indirect Link
Authors: COHEN JORDIN S. , STEVENSON RANDOLPH , MINTZ ALEX , WARD MICHAEL D.
Published: March 2007

Evidence from Israel suggests that economic growth may benefit from increased investment rates and cuts in defense spending - in other words, an economic `peace dividend'. Recent scholarly work, however, focusing on short-term, direct impacts, has provided little evidence for the existence of such a peace dividend in other parts of the world or in Israel itself. In this article, we address these competing views by exploring some important indirect, longer-term effects of defense spending on the Israeli macroeconomy. Our results indicate that a short-term focus fails to reveal the process through which a small, positive economic peace dividend appears to be operating in Israel. Rather, the main features of this process are indirect, long-term, and nuanced, operating through investment, delayed several years, with non-military government spending acting as a crucial intervening variable in the process. Whether the decline of defense spending will continue to be associated with rapid economic growth in Israel is problematic. However, like the defense-economy linkage in Israel, so too may the peace dividend operate indirectly and only in the long term. Our analysis shows that these linkages are not static, but change in important and dramatic ways over time.
Democracy and Integration: Why Democracies Don't Fight Each Other
Authors: Starr Harvey
Published: March 2007

While a large and growing literature has emerged which investigates the impact of the expansion of democracy on foreign policy and international politics, much of it has been characterized by insufficient attention to theoretical and conceptual clarity. To address such problems, this article is an exercise in concept clarification. It stresses that the democratic peace is a subset of the processes and results of integration, that it fits within an integration framework, and that it works according to processes already identified by integration theory which permits the synthesis of a number of `contending' explanations for the democratic peace. As part of this argument, the article also stresses the transparent nature of democracy, emphasizing the importance of the mutual perceptions of two democracies, that the other is clearly a democracy. Finally, this article reminds scholars that the focus of the democratic peace proposition is on war. While it is important to explore our theories in terms of their extension to other conflictual phenomena, we must be careful in specifying exactly what these relationships should look like.
The Rocky Road Toward Peace: Beliefs on Conflict in Israeli Textbooks
Authors: Bar-Tal Daniel
Published: March 2007

Since the late 1970s, the Israeli-Arab conflict has become less intractable and in recent years the Middle East has changed beyond recognition. The present research attempts to discover whether the changes in the nature of Israeli-Arab relations are followed by complementary changes in the conflict's ethos of Israeli society as reflected in school textbooks. One hundred and twenty-four textbooks on Hebrew language and literature (readers), history, geography and civic studies, approved for use in the school system (elementary, junior-high, and high schools in the secular and religious sectors) by the Ministry of Education in March 1994, were content analyzed. The analysis examined the extent to which the textbooks presented societal beliefs reflecting ethos of conflict: societal beliefs of security, positive self-image, victimization, delegitimization of the opponent, unity, and peace. The findings do not reveal a unified picture. Textbooks, subject matters, level of schools and sectors differ in their emphasis on the investigated societal beliefs. The analysis shows that societal beliefs of security received most emphasis; subsequently, the societal beliefs of positive self-image and Jews victimization appeared. Societal beliefs of unity and of peace appeared infrequently. Finally, the analysis shows a very rare delegitimization of Arabs, but the majority of books stereotype Arabs negatively. These findings are discussed in the framework of the required changes in the societal ethos that must accompany the peace process which has dramatically altered the nature of Israeli-Arab relations.
A Comparison of Social Development Processes Leading to Violent Behavior in Late Adolescence for Childhood Initiators and Adolescent Initiators of Violence
Authors: HERRENKOHL TODD I. , HUANG BU , KOSTERMAN RICK , HAWKINS J. DAVID , CATALANO RICHARD F. , SMITH BRIAN H.
Published: March 2007

This study used data from the Seattle Social Development Project (SSDP) to compare social developmental mechanisms predictive of violence at age 18 for youth who initiated violence in childhood and those who initiated violence during adolescence. The SSDP is a theory-guided longitudinal study of youth development and behavior, which has followed a panel of children since they entered the fifth grade in 1985. A multiple-group structural equation modeling approach was used to test relationships among social development model constructs hypothesized to predict violence and other forms of antisocial behavior. Analyses revealed that during adolescence, socialization pathways leading to violence at age 18 were similar for those who initiated violence in childhood and those who initiated violence in adolescence, suggesting that during adolescence, the same preventive interventions may be effective for individuals in both groups.
Correctional Research: An Elusive Paradise
Authors: Glaser Daniel
Published: March 2007

Criminologists repeatedly have envisioned academic Utopias in prisons, courts, and other agencies handling criminals. In their dream worlds, research would guide practice and practi tioners would support research. Such promising arrangements, though sometimes initiated, have never been fully achieved. Their failure involved either coöptation of academicians by ad ministrators, in which instances research goals were abandoned, or divergence of research and operations into separate and largely autonomous social systems.

New advances toward this elusive ideal have recently been in dicated at several points. These gains seem to require the "institutionalization of rationality" in correction through (1) legislative demands for change and for "hard" criteria of achieve ment in coping with criminals; (2) bridging of traditional admin istrative boundaries between police, couris, prisons, and parole; and (3) research designs which accommodate the conflicting or ganizational goals of correctional systems.
Implementation of the JUSSIM Model in a Criminal Justice Planning Agency
Authors: Cohen Jacqueline , Fields Kenneth , Lettre Michel , Stafford Richard , Walker Claire
Published: March 2007

The JUSSIM model is an interactive computer program for which an accompanying data file describes the flow diagram of a criminal justice system, the branching ratios of the flow between stages, the resources consumed, and the costs and workloads. This model was implemented to help develop a plan for a local criminal justice planning agency. The paper reports on the experiences in collecting the relevant data, the analyses performed with the model, and the usefulness of the model for the decision makers in the planning agency.
The Adequacy of Differential Association Theory
Authors: Adams Reed
Published: March 2007

Differential association has been the most widely disseminated of the criminological theories, yet has remained untested. An in novation in the intellectual life of the theory has suggested a means of testing its adequacy but not its validity. Recent papers have suggested that the theory is inadequate by its failure to con sider nonsocial (noninteractive) determinants of behavior. This paper reports a review of empirical studies which allow the effects of social and nonsocial independent variables to be contrasted and a randomized two-factor design experiment of the effect of a social and a nonsocial variable on theft behavior. Both the experiment and the literature review suggest that nonsocial variables should be considered by theories of human behavior. The evidence does not support differential association theory.
The Effects of Using a Mod versus a Traditional Approach in Communicating with Juvenile Delinquents
Authors: Lowe Jay , Childers William , Doucet Will , Dilettuso Joe
Published: March 2007

Communication between a juvenile officer and his delinquent client is frequently a major problem in court and correctional settings. The purpose of the research was to ascertain the differ ing responses of institutionalized juvenile delinquents to young adult interviewers using differing strategies of communications. One pair of interviewers used a traditional approach in which they asked straightforward questions using middle-class language while being well groomed and dressed in a suit and tie. The other pair assumed a mod appearance with beard, medium-length hair, and sport clothes and used the language of the youth sub culture. The latter pair additionally enhanced their communica tion with the juveniles by attempting to relate directly to the boy, a direct result of their facilitative training as described by Carkhuff and Truax.

Twenty boys (10 white, 10 black) a random sample, were interviewed, with half being exposed to the mod pair and half to the traditional pair first. Seven days later each pair interviewed the other half of the sample. All subjects were asked the same basic questions by both pairs of interviewers. Tape recordings were made of each interview so as to ascertain the time and con tent of subjects and interviewers' communications.

Analysis of the tapes indicates that (1) the mod pair was more effective in communicating with the juvenile delinquents than the traditional pair was; (2) the subjects' response time was three times as great for the mod interviews as for the traditionals; (3) the ratio of the subjects' response time to interviewers' response time shows the subjects in the mod interviews were twice as verbal as in the traditional interviews; (4) subjects' answers in both settings were reasonably accurate but those in the mod setting were more detailed and disclosed more information not solicited by the questioners; (5) the white subjects responded to the Mod Squad (in terms of response time) more readily than black subjects; and (6) responses to Traditional questioning elicited no negative comments on the criminal justice system, whereas the Mod Squad questioning brought forth several com ments.

Overall, the data from this pilot project indicate that institu tionalized juvenile delinquents, especially white boys, respond more freely to persons who attempt to relate to the youth life style and who have acquired and used skills that facilitate good communication. Further research should explore the effects of various life styles and levels of communication skills before specific conclusions about each can be made.
Police Control of Juveniles
Authors: Lundman Richard J. , Sykes Richard E. , Clark John P.
Published: March 2007

In 1970, Donald Black and Albert J. Reiss, Jr. presented a series of eight propositions which they suggested provided the beginning of an empirical por trait of the policing of juveniles. The present study replicates their research, based upon comparative data separated by four years and many miles. Exten sive support for their earlier conclusions is reported, but a number of sub- propositions, clarifications, and extensions are also advanced. Several of the theoretical and empirical implications of these findings are then considered.
Deinstitutionalization of Status Offenders: Individual Outcome and System Effects
Authors: Spergel Irving A. , Reamer Frederic G. , Lynch James P.
Published: March 2007

In recent years there have been widespread attempts to remove juvenile status offenders from secure detention and correctional facilities. These efforts have been in response to claims that status offenders do not represent a significant danger to the community and that incarceration of them is unwarranted. This article summarizes findings from the evaluation of a statewide program, designed as part of a national deinstitutionalization strategy, that provided alternatives to secure detention for status offenders between the time of arrest and court appearance. It focuses on factors affecting both the youths themselves and the responses of the juvenile justice and public social service systems to the alternatives program. In particular, the effects of secure detention and alternatives to detention on youths' subsequent behavior are compared. In addition, data are provided concerning status offenders' careers and the ability of the deinstitutionalization strategy to divert youths from the juvenile justice and social service systems.
Deterrence Findings and Data Sources: a Comparison of the Uniform Crime Reports and the National Crime Surveys
Authors: Zedlewski Edwin W.
Published: March 2007

Considerable debate has surfaced over the past decade as to whether police contribute to crime control and, if so, what relationships exist between police resources and apprehension rates (arrest production) and between apprehension rates and crime rates (deterrence production). This paper compares the implications for both of these processes by measuring criminal activity and apprehension risk with alternative data sources: FBI Uniform Crime Reports (UCRs) and Bureau of Justice Statistics National Crime Surveys (NCSs). An analysis of the error structures in each statistical series finds that both series produce biased estimates of deterrence parameters in simple regression models, the greater biases generated by the Uniform Crime Reports. In a more comprehensive deterrence model, UCR-based measures of apprehension risk and criminal activity uncover no relationship between apprehension risk and crime rates while comparable NCS-based measures find strong deterrent effects. Both series find strong associations between police resources and apprehension risk for burglary and total property offenses, but not for larceny. Determinants of law-enforcement demand were also similar except for the effect of crime-rates on demand. The fact that UCR crime-rates were significant determinants of demand and NCS rates were not was interpreted as evidence that official statistics, not subjective estimates of community victimization risk, determined police resources.
Sex and Criminal Court Dispositions: The Unresolved Controversy
Authors: KRUTTSCHNITT CANDACE
Published: March 2007

As Hagan and O'Donnel (1978) have noted, one of the common stereotypes in criminology is the relative leniency with which women are treated by the criminal justice system. However, given the lack of empirical studies addressing the issue of the influence of gender on criminal court dispositions, social science research has yet to establish whether such sex discrimination exists. This study systematically evaluates the relationship between sex and both pre and postconviction decisions, controlling for a number of potentially gender-related statuses. The analyses indicate: (1) that sex does have a significant effect on pretrial release and sentence severity decisions; (2) the factors influencing both of these decisions vary depending upon the offender's gender; and (3) differences in the social locations of men and women may confound assessments of the gender-disposition issue.
Is Delinquency Prevention a Cost-Effective Strategy? A California Perspective
Authors: LIPSEY MARK W.
Published: March 2007

To be cost-effective, delinquency prevention should yield savings to the law enforcement and juvenile justice system and, optionally, to victims, offsetting more than its costs. An analysis of the cost issues involved from the standpoint of local and state budgeting indicates that the benefit-cost position of prevention programs depends upon the delinquency risk of the clients chosen for treatment, and the success rate in preventing subsequent delinquency by those clients as well as the relative costs of the program itself. A simple model for the interplay of these various factors is developed and illustrated using data from the Los Angeles County delinquency prevention program. Even with conservative assumptions, delinquency prevention appears to be a cost-effective strategy, capable of producing savings to local and state government that outweigh its costs. Achieving that favorable benefit-cost position, however, is not assured for any given program. It requires selection of juvenile clients with significant delinquency risk, sustaining of a moderately high level of success in treating those clients, and containment of program costs. Representative data from the Los Angeles County program are used to estimate the performance required on these various factors if a prevention program is to justify its effort in terms of net cost savings to those responsible for funding juvenile justice in the community within which it operates.
Religiosity and Criminality from the Perspective of Arousal Theory
Authors: ELLIS LEE
Published: March 2007

A recent literature review concluded that religiosity and criminality are related in at least the following three ways: high probabilities of delinquency and crime are associated with infrequent church attendance, with skepticism about the reality of an afterlife, and with being Christian (especially Catholic) as opposed to being Jewish. This report argues that arousal theory may explain such relationships better than other explanations offered so far.
Personal Victimization in a High-Risk Environment: Homeless and Runaway Adolescents
Authors: HOYT DAN R. , RYAN KIMBERLY D. , CAUCE ANA MARI
Published: March 2007

Criminal opportunity theories identify four basic constructs that are central to models of victimization: proximity, exposure, victim attractiveness, and guardianship. Proximity was controlled, allowing the examination of the potential effects of exposure, victim attractiveness, and guardianship in more detail. Discrete-time event history models were used to estimate the contemporary-time predictors of personal victimization and the time-lagged effect of prior victimization from a five-wave longitudinal study of street youths. The study found strong support for exposure hypotheses with increased victimization risk associated with time on the streets, substance abuse, and affiliation with deviant peers. Selected indicators of victim attractiveness and guardianship hypotheses were significant but, overall, the support for these two dimensions was more limited. Prior victimization was associated with approximately a 2.5 times increase in the odds of subsequent victimization. This study suggests several interpretations of this effect, and it argues for additional situation-specific research to provide further elaboration of victimization theories.
‘The Generous Utopia of Yesterday Can Become the Practical Achievement of Tomorrow’: 1000 Years of Monetary Union in Europe
Authors: Einaudi Luca
Published: March 2007

Monetary unions have been a recurring element in European history, driven by the need to overcome obstacles to trade caused by the fragmentation of political authority. Between the 14th and the 19th centuries, a series of coinage unions were set up in the German speaking world, which served as models for the Latin and Scandinavian monetary unions in 1865 and 1872. With the growing size of participating states and the transformation of money, thanks to the end of bimetallism and the wider use of bank notes and deposits, the objectives and the practical management of monetary unions became more complex and more political. Monetary union became strictly associated with European federalism and required new common institutions after the end of the classical metallic standards in 1914.
Optimality and Taylor Rules
Authors: Blake Andrew P.
Published: March 2007

This paper discusses the role of forecasts in the control of inflation. Much has been made of variations on the so-called Taylor rule for inflation control. Forward-looking Taylor rules are reconciled with optimal control using a class of rules described as error-correcting Taylor rules.
An Evaluation of Monetary Targeting Regimes
Authors: Barrell Ray , Dury Karen
Published: March 2007

The policy regime in Europe has put the economy on ‘auto-pilot’. We investigate different designs for the required feedback mechanisms. The uncertainty facing an economy depends on the pattern of shocks it faces, the response of the private sector to those shocks and also the policy reactions of the authorities. Two ‘ideal type’ policy regimes are investigated, and inflation targeting is compared to nominal aggregate targeting. In general it is suggested that targeting a nominal aggregate reduces the variability of the price level, and stabilises the price level more quickly over time. Inflation outcomes are also less variable for the Euro Area, and they are less asymmetric when a nominal aggregate is targeted. The new European fiscal framework requires that countries set deficit targets close to balance. We show that there is plenty of space for automatic stabilisers to work, but the room available depends in part on the monetary policy framework chosen.
Energy and Expansion
Authors: Ray G. F. , Blackaby F. T.
Published: March 2007

Few industries can have had such a reversal of expectations in so short a time as the coal industry. In April 1956 the National Coal Board, looking at the prospects for the next ten years, could say confidently: ‘Even in the longer term, the problem of over-production for the coal industry can scarcely arise’. Over the next four years, total coal production fell 7 per cent, and coal stocks more than doubled.
The Burden of Taxation: An International Comparison
Authors: Needleman L.
Published: March 2007

It has often been asserted that Britain is one of the most heavily taxed countries in the world. That assertion is examined in this note by comparing the weight of taxation and compulsory social security contributions in Britain with that in other countries. The comparison is made in broad terms with about twenty countries and in more detail with Australia, Western Germany, Ireland, Sweden and the United States. But even the detailed comparison is necessarily a coarse one. Tax systems almost everywhere are immensely complicated and only a few aspects of the systems are examined here.

Taxation in this country does not appear to be exceptionally heavy. The total burden—the proportion of the country's income which is taken in tax—is quite near to the European average. Further, the British division of tax between direct taxes on households, taxes on corporations and indirect taxes, is closer to the European average than that of any other European country. Those earning more than about £10,000 a year are more heavily taxed in Britain than in the other countries examined in detail but less than one-tenth of one per cent of the working population are in this income group, so this is hardly a sufficient ground for the general complaint of high taxation. At incomes between £2,000 and £10,000 a year, Sweden takes more in tax than Britain; Australia and Ireland take about the same; and Western Germany and the United States take less. Below £2,000 a year Western Germany and Sweden have very much higher rates than the other countries.
Aid to Underdeveloped Countries
Authors: Major R. L.
Published: March 2007

Aid from industrial countries (that is, grants and long-term public and private investment) now makes a significant contribution to the economies of underdeveloped countries. From 1956 to 1959, these countries received, on average, $6½ billion a year. This yearly inflow was equal to about a third of their income from merchandise exports to the rest of the world, or something approaching two-thirds of their total stock of gold and foreign exchange reserves; it is very much bigger than it was in the post-war years up to 1952—when it was probably not more than $2 billion a year.
British Imports of Manufactures
Authors: Ray G.F.
Published: March 2007

In recent years, a steadily increasing proportion of the import bill has been made up by goods which compete more or less directly with the output of British manufacturing industry. Table 1 gives an indication of the growing significance of these imports. They are divided into two major groups. The first includes manufactures for further industrial processing, including chemicals, iron and steel, paper and board and partly-finished textile manufactures. Non-ferrous metals have been excluded, because the proportion of consumption satisfied by British industry is relatively limited. The second group consists of imports of finished manufactures, including engineering products, vehicles, clothing and many miscellaneous manufactures.
A Long Term View of Housing
Authors: Needleman L.
Published: March 2007

This article discusses some of the factors that will affect house building in England and Wales during the next twenty years. It is hardly possible to predict the demand for new houses, as it is for consumer durables like cars and domestic appliances, by reference to changes in incomes and prices. Governments in Britain (as in most other wealthy countries) have taken the view that housing is, up to a point, a social responsibility and should not be left to the free play of market forces. Private rents have been controlled; most of the new houses since the war have been built by local authorities to be let at subsidised rents; and certain minimum standards have been laid down both for new public housing and for existing privately owned houses. Hence the cost of housing to the occupier, and the supply of new houses, have been largely dominated, directly or indirectly, by public policy; and the size of the house building programme is likely to continue to be, at least partly, a political decision.
The Demand for Food in the Industrial Countries 1948-1960
Authors: Jones K. , Maizels A. , Whittaker J.
Published: March 2007

Exports of primary producing countries have for some time been rising more slowly than incomes in industrial countries. A previous article discussed why their exports of industrial materials had lagged behind; this article deals with their exports of food to industrial countries (chart 1).
Engineering Orders: Their Use in Forecasting
Authors: Shirley E. A.
Published: March 2007

For the past four years estimates of home and foreign orders have been published which, by and large, cover the capital goods sector of the engineering industry. (This is the sector which produces to order.) Home deliveries from this sector make up a large part of industry's investment in plant and machinery; export deliveries have usually been more buoyant than total exports. If these orders figures could be used to predict turning-points in home and export deliveries of engineering products, this would be a helpful additional forecasting tool.
Transport: Notes and Comments
Authors: Ray G. F. , Crum R. E.
Published: March 2007

Two surveys of the future of British transport were published in March of this year: ‘The reshaping of British Railway’ and ‘The transport needs of Great Britain in the next twenty years’. The second of these sets out, in general terms, the relationship between transport needs and economic growth. This article, therefore, does not attempt to go over this ground again: its purpose is to provide background material to some of the issues raised by the two reports. It discusses, first—since this is the main point of current discussion—the social costs of the closures proposed. Secondly, it looks at the forecasts of the total demand for freight transport. Thirdly, it considers the particular problem the railways have, in that they are competing with transport owned and controlled by the user himself. Fourthly, the article sets out some comparisons of railway finances in various European countries. At the end of the article there is a collection of transport statistics.
Paper & Board: Trends and Prospects
Authors: Ray G. F.
Published: March 2007

Paper and board are typical intermediate products. Very little goes directly into personal or public consumption; the vast bulk goes to other industries—and to a wide range of industries at that. Of the 51 industry groups distinguished in the 1954 Input-Output Tables, only two (agriculture and oil refining) are shown as having no direct purchases of paper and board. Consequently any projection of future demand is a complex exercise.
Export Competitiveness : British Experience in Eastern Europe
Authors: Ray G. F.
Published: March 2007

The purpose of the Enquiry, whose results are reported in this article, was to assess the competitiveness of British exports in five Eastern European countries—Hungary, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia and Bulgaria. The Enquiry also investigated, more generally, the possibilities of promoting trade with these five countries. They were chosen because their trade with other countries is almost entirely the monopoly of specialised foreign trade corporations;(1) hence for each category of products there is only one buyer in each country. It is therefore possible to make some assessment of the competitiveness of British exports from the consumer end without an impossibly large number of interviews. These foreign trade corporations keep in touch with all the main suppliers both inside and outside the Comecon area, and are therefore in a good position to answer questions about the competitiveness of various Western countries' exports—questions concerning not only statistically quantifiable aspects (such as price) but also such matters as packaging and public relations.
The Size of Plant: A Comparison
Authors: Ray G. F.
Published: March 2007

The purpose of this note is to analyse the size of plant in Britain, Germany and some other European countries, in order to answer the question : are there any differences here which might throw light on Britain's competitive position?

The main conclusion concerns large plants-those employing more than 1,000 people-in Germany and Britain. In Germany these large plants tend to be larger, in terms of employment, than in Britain. This is particularly marked in plants in industries producing for export. In all manufacturing industry, the typical large German plant was one-tenth larger than the British (in employment) ; in the six most important export industries, it was found to be one-third larger.
Forecasting British Exports of Manufactures to Industrial Countries
Authors: Renton G. A.
Published: March 2007

‘The forecasting of exports, because it depends on trends and policies in all the rest of the world, is likely to remain the most intractable problem in economic forecasting. Since changes in exports have repercussions elsewhere, this limits the success one can hope for in forecasting demand as a whole.’(1)
Wage-Rates, Earnings, and Wage-Drift
Authors: Gillion C.
Published: March 2007

This article describes an attempt to establish by regression analysis the form of the relationships which determine wage-rates and average earnings in the United Kingdom.