A study on the development of an integrated hazardous chemical damage prediction model using the CALPUFF model and the Lignangian theory
Authors:   Korea Safety Culture Society, Ko Jae Sun 
Published: January 2025

Purpose of Study: Since the 1960s, the development of the chemical industry in Korea has been a turning point in industrial development and played a pivotal role in the development of Korea into an emerging industrial country. However, as the scale of various process facilities increases and the use of hazardous chemicals increases significantly, the potential for fires, explosions, and leaks to affect not only workers but also nearby residents is increasing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this paper is to develop a domestic hazardous chemical behavior analysis model that considers environmental characteristics so that chemical accidents caused by hazardous chemical leaks and diffusion accidents can be actively prevented and accurate and safe recovery support can be realized through rapid and active response. Research method: Using the physical properties data of various hazardous substances, land use data reflecting moisture content and friction speed according to land use such as urban, agricultural, and forest areas, elevation data such as height values on a certain grid as data representing the shape of the terrain, surface temperature data such as temperature data of the land surface and sea surface, and actual temperature data observed at meteorological observatories (Meteorological data), a 3D meteorological field was created, and the Lagrangian dispersion model was applied to this to build a real-time response model, thereby analyzing the behavior of hazardous chemicals. Research results: Based on the Lagrangian theory that reflects the latest weather information, CALPUFF's real-time response model was able to precisely predict weather diagnosis and the spread of pollutants in the event of a disaster, and it was able to predict the scope of damage in the accident area in real time through real-time weather information, overcoming the limitations of existing programs that used weather statistics to predict damage. In addition, highly accurate chemical substance movement predictions became possible by utilizing complex and diverse terrain and surface use information within the city. Conclusion: A real-time response model was developed for efficient initial response in the event of a chemical accident, and a precise analysis model was developed for systematic and precise aftercare after chemical accident response and suppression. In addition, by establishing an integrated system for smooth operation of real-time response such as a hazardous chemical substance property DB, real-time weather data linkage module, and 2D/3D GIS module, the initial response capability in the event of a chemical accident in complex terrain was improved, and a hazardous chemical substance movement analysis model that considers domestic terrain and environmental characteristics was developed to actively prevent chemical accidents caused by hazardous chemical substance leaks and diffusion accidents and to realize accurate and safe recovery support through rapid and active response.