bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Nitrous oxide emission from a range of land uses across Europe
Authors: Machefert S. E. , Dise N. B. , Goulding K. W. T. , Whitehead P.G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The results of a literature study examining quantitative estimates of N2O emission rates are presented for a range of land-uses across Europe. The analysis shows that the highest N2O emission rates are for agricultural lands compared to forests and grasslands. The main factors regulating these rates are available mineral nitrogen, soil temperature, soil water content and the available labile organic compounds. These controls operate across different time-scales, all must exceed a certain threshold for N2O emission to occur. The results support the need for an emission factor function of land-use and climate within models describing nitrogen dynamics in catchments. This would allow the assessment of the net N2O emission within catchments in terms of current levels and potential changes associated with climate variability, climate change and land use change. Keywords: nitrous oxide, soil water content, inorganic N, soil temperature, ecosystems, land-use management, soil type
Modelling soil moisture for a grassland and a woodland site in south-east England
Authors: Blyth E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper describes a comparison between two soil moisture prediction models. One is MORECS (Met Office Rainfall and Evaporation Calculation Scheme), the Met Office soil moisture model that is used by agriculture, flood modellers and weather forecasters to initialise their models. The other is MOSES (Met Office Surface Exchange Scheme), modified with a runoff generation module. The models are made compatible by increasing the vegetation information available to MOSES. Both models were run with standard parameters and were driven using meteorological observations at Wallingford (1995-1997). Detailed soil moisture measurements were available at a grassland site and a woodland site in this area. The comparison between the models and the observed soil moisture indicated that, for the grassland site, MORECS dried out too quickly in the spring and, for the woodland site, was too wet. Overall, the performance of MOSES was superior. The soil moisture predicted by the new, modified MOSES will be included as a product of Nimrod - the 5 km x 5km gridded network of observed meteorological data across the UK. Keywords: Soil moisture, model, observation, field capacity
Inverse modelling in estimating soil hydraulic functions: a Genetic Algorithm approach
Authors: Ines A. V. M. , Droogers P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The practical application of simulation models in the field is sometimes hindered by the difficulty of deriving the soil hydraulic properties of the study area. The procedure so-called inverse modelling has been investigated in many studies to address the problem where most of the studies were limited to hypothetical soil profile and soil core samples in the laboratory. Often, the numerical approach called forward-backward simulation is employed to generate synthetic data then added with random errors to mimic the real-world condition. Inverse modelling is used to backtrack the expected values of the parameters. This study explored the potential of a Genetic Algorithm (GA) to estimate inversely the soil hydraulic functions in the unsaturated zone. Lysimeter data from a wheat experiment in India were used in the analysis. Two cases were considered: (1) a numerical case where the forward-backward approach was employed and (2) the experimental case where the real data from the lysimeter experiment were used. Concurrently, the use of soil water, evapotranspiration (ET) and the combination of both were investigated as criteria in the inverse modelling. Results showed that using soil water as a criterion provides more accurate parameter estimates than using ET. However, from a practical point of view, ET is more attractive as it can be obtained with reasonable accuracy on a regional scale from remote sensing observations. The experimental study proved that the forward-backward approach does not take into account the effects of model errors. The formulation of the problem is found to be critical for a successful parameter estimation. The sensitivity of parameters to the objective function and their zone of influence in the soil column are major determinants in the solution. Generally, their effects sometimes lead to non-uniqueness in the solution but to some extent are partly handled by GA. Overall, it was concluded that the GA approach is promising to the inverse problem in the unsaturated zone. Keywords. Genetic Algorithm, inverse modelling, Mualem-Van Genuchten parameters, unsaturated zone, evapotranspiration, soil water
Nitrogen circulation in a Mediterranean holm oak forest, La Castanya, Montseny, northeastern Spain
Authors: Avila A. , Rodrigo A. , Rodà F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The importance of storm frequency as well as the groundwater and hyporheic inputs on nitrate (NO3-N) and ammonium (NH4-N) levels in stream water were studied in a small perennial Mediterranean catchment, Riera Major, in northeast Spain. NO3-N concentrations ranged from 0.15 to 1.9 mg l-1. Discharge explained 47% of the annual NO3-N concentration variance, but this percentage increased to 97% when single floods were analysed. The rate of change in nitrate concentration with respect to flow, ΔNO3-N/ΔQ, ranged widely from 0 to 20 μg NO3-N s l-2. The ΔNO3-N/ΔQ values fitted to a non linear model with respect to the storm flow magnitude (ΔQ) (r2=0.48, d.f.=22, P<0.01). High values of ΔNO3-N/ΔQ occurred at intermediate ΔQ values, whereas low ΔNO3-N/ΔQ values occurred during severe storms (ΔQ > 400 l s-1). N3-N concentrations exhibit anticlockwise hysteresis patterns with changing flow and the patterns observed for autumnal and winter storms indicated that groundwater was the main N3-N source for stream and hyporheic water. At baseflow, NO3-N concentration in groundwater was higher (t=4.75, d.f.=29, P>0.001) and co-varied with concentrations in the stream (r=0.91, d.f.=28, P<0.001). In contrast, NO3-N concentration in hyporheic water was identical to that in stream water. The role of the hyporheic zone as source or sink for ammonium was studied hyporheic was studied comparing its concentrations in stream and hyporheic zone before and after a major storm occurred in October 1994 that removed particulate organic matter stored in sediments. Results showed high ammonium concentrations (75±28 s.d. μg NH4-N l-1) before the storm flow in the hyporheic zone. After the storm, the ammonium concentration in the hyporheic dropped by 80% (13.6±8 μg N4-N l-1) and approached to the level found in stream water (11±8 μg NH4-N l-1) indicating that indisturbed hyporheic sediments act as a source for ammonium. After the storm, the ammonium concentrations in the stream, hyporheic and groundwater zones were very similar suggesting that stream ammonium concentrations are sustained mainly by input from groundwater. The present study provides evidence that storm flow magnitude is an important source of variability of nitrate concentration and fluxes in Mediterranean streams subjected to an irregular precipitation regime with prolonged dry periods. Keywords: nitrate, discharge regime, hyporheic zone, groundwater, Mediterranean, stream, Riera Major
Evaluation of artificial neural network techniques for flow forecasting in the River Yangtze, China
Authors: Dawson C. W. , Harpham C. , Wilby R. L. , Chen Y.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. While engineers have been quantifying rainfall-runoff processes since the mid-19th century, it is only in the last decade that artificial neural network models have been applied to the same task. This paper evaluates two neural networks in this context: the popular multilayer perceptron (MLP), and the radial basis function network (RBF). Using six-hourly rainfall-runoff data for the River Yangtze at Yichang (upstream of the Three Gorges Dam) for the period 1991 to 1993, it is shown that both neural network types can simulate river flows beyond the range of the training set. In addition, an evaluation of alternative RBF transfer functions demonstrates that the popular Gaussian function, often used in RBF networks, is not necessarily the ‘best’ function to use for river flow forecasting. Comparisons are also made between these neural networks and conventional statistical techniques; stepwise multiple linear regression, auto regressive moving average models and a zero order forecasting approach. Keywords: Artificial neural network, multilayer perception, radial basis function, flood forecasting
Neural networks and non-parametric methods for improving real-time flood forecasting through conceptual hydrological models
Authors: Brath A. , Montanari A. , Toth E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Time-series analysis techniques for improving the real-time flood forecasts issued by a deterministic lumped rainfall-runoff model are presented. Such techniques are applied for forecasting the short-term future rainfall to be used as real-time input in a rainfall-runoff model and for updating the discharge predictions provided by the model. Along with traditional linear stochastic models, both stationary (ARMA) and non-stationary (ARIMA), the application of non-linear time-series models is proposed such as Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and the ‘nearest-neighbours’ method, which is a non-parametric regression methodology. For both rainfall forecasting and discharge updating, the implementation of each time-series technique is investigated and the forecasting schemes which perform best are identified. The performances of the models are then compared and the improvement in the efficiency of the discharge forecasts achievable is demonstrated when i) short-term rainfall forecasting is performed, ii) the discharge is updated and iii) both rainfall forecasting and discharge updating are performed in cascade. The proposed techniques, especially those based on ANNs, allow a remarkable improvement in the discharge forecast, compared with the use of heuristic rainfall prediction approaches or the not-updated discharge forecasts given by the deterministic rainfall-runoff model alone. Keywords: real-time flood forecasting, precipitation prediction, discharge updating, time-series analysis techniques
Multi-model data fusion for river flow forecasting: an evaluation of six alternative methods based on two contrasting catchments
Authors: Abrahart R. J. , See L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper evaluates six published data fusion strategies for hydrological forecasting based on two contrasting catchments: the River Ouse and the Upper River Wye. The input level and discharge estimates for each river comprised a mixed set of single model forecasts. Data fusion was performed using: arithmetic-averaging, a probabilistic method in which the best model from the last time step is used to generate the current forecast, two different neural network operations and two different soft computing methodologies. The results from this investigation are compared and contrasted using statistical and graphical evaluation. Each location demonstrated several options and potential advantages for using data fusion tools to construct superior estimates of hydrological forecast. Fusion operations were better in overall terms in comparison to their individual modelling counterparts and two clear winners emerged. Indeed, the six different mechanisms on test revealed unequal aptitudes for fixing different categories of problematic catchment behaviour and, in such cases, the best method(s) were a good deal better than their closest rival(s). Neural network fusion of differenced data provided the best solution for a stable regime (with neural network fusion of original data being somewhat similar) — whereas a fuzzified probabilistic mechanism produced a superior output in a more volatile environment. The need for a data fusion research agenda within the hydrological sciences is discussed and some initial suggestions are presented. Keywords: data fusion, fuzzy logic, neural network, hydrological modelling
Long-term response in episodic acidification to declining SO42– deposition in two streams in Nova Scotia
Authors: Laudon H. , Clair T. A. , Hemond H. F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Trends in anthropogenically driven episodic acidification associated with extended winter snow melt/rain episodes between 1983 and 1998 were investigated for two streams in Nova Scotia, Canada. The anthropogenic contribution to Acid Neutralization Capacity (ANC) was analysed using the Boreal Dilution Model (Bishop et al., 2000) modified by applying a sea-salt correction to all input hydrochemistry. The anthropogenic contribution to episodic ANC decline was statistically significant and strongly correlated with the decline in acid deposition, which decreased by approximately 50% during the period of record. Sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the BDM can be applied to surface waters with sea-salt contributions although the correction increases model uncertainty. Results of this study demonstrate the effectiveness of reduced emissions in North America in the last decades in decreasing the severity of episodic acidification in the Atlantic region of Canada. Keywords: episodic acidification, acidification recovery, Nova Scotia, snowmelt, winter
Spring and surface water quality of the Cyprus ophiolites
Authors: Neal C. , Shand P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A survey of surface, spring and borehole waters associated with the ophiolite rocks of Cyprus shows five broad water types (1) Mg-HCO3, (2) Na-SO4-Cl-HCO3, (3) Na-Ca-Cl-SO4-OH-CO3, (4) Na-Cl-SO4 and (5) Ca-SO4. The waters represent a progression in chemical reactivity from surface waters that evolve within a groundwater setting due to hydrolysis of the basic/ultrabasic rock as modified by CO2-weathering. An increase in salinity is also observed which is due to mixing with a saline end-member (modified sea-water) and dissolution of gypsum/anhydrite. In some cases, the waters have pH values greater than 11. Such high values are associated with low temperature serpentinisation reactions. The system is a net sink for CO2. This feature is related not only to the hydrolysis of the primary minerals in the rock, but also to CaCO3 or Ca-Mg-CO3 solubility controls. Under hyperalkaline conditions, virtually all the carbon dioxide is lost from the water due to the sufficiently high calcium levels and carbonate buffering is then insignificant. Calcium sulphate solubility controls may also be operative when calcium and sulphate concentrations are particularly high. Keywords: Cyprus, Troodos, ophiolite, serpentinisation, spring, stream, water quality, bromide, iodine, boron, trace elements, hyperalkaline.
Balancing the books – a statistical theory of prospective budgets in Earth System science
Authors: O'Kane J. P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. An honest declaration of the error in a mass, momentum or energy balance, ε, simply raises the question of its acceptability: "At what value of ε is the attempted balance to be rejected?" Answering this question requires a reference quantity against which to compare ε. This quantity must be a mathematical function of all the data used in making the balance. To deliver this function, a theory grounded in a workable definition of acceptability is essential. A distinction must be drawn between a retrospective balance and a prospective budget in relation to any natural space-filling body. Balances look to the past; budgets look to the future. The theory is built on the application of classical sampling theory to the measurement and closure of a prospective budget. It satisfies R.A. Fisher's "vital requirement that the actual and physical conduct of experiments should govern the statistical procedure of their interpretation". It provides a test, which rejects, or fails to reject, the hypothesis that the closing error on the budget, when realised, was due to sampling error only. By increasing the number of measurements, the discrimination of the test can be improved, controlling both the precision and accuracy of the budget and its components. The cost-effective design of such measurement campaigns is discussed briefly. This analysis may also show when campaigns to close a budget on a particular space-filling body are not worth the effort for either scientific or economic reasons. Other approaches, such as those based on stochastic processes, lack this finality, because they fail to distinguish between different types of error in the mismatch between a set of realisations of the process and the measured data. Keywords: balance, budget, sampling, hypothesis test, closing error, Earth System
Evaluating the reliability of point estimates of wetland reference evaporation
Authors: Gavin H. , Agnew C. T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Penman-Monteith formulation of evaporation has been criticised for its reliance upon point estimates so that areal estimates of wetland evaporation based upon single weather stations may be misleading. Typically, wetlands comprise a complex mosaic of land cover types from each of which evaporative rates may differ. The need to account for wetland patches when monitoring hydrological fluxes has been noted. This paper presents work carried out over a wet grassland in Southern England. The significance of fetch on actual evaporation was examined using the approach adopted by Gash (1986) based upon surface roughness to estimate the fraction of evaporation sensed from a specified distance upwind of the monitoring station. This theoretical analysis (assuming near-neutral conditions) reveals that the fraction of evaporation contributed by the surrounding area increases steadily to a value of 77% at a distance of 224 m and thereafter declines rapidly. Thus, point climate observations may not reflect surface conditions at greater distances. This result was tested through the deployment of four weather stations on the wetland. The resultant data suggested that homogeneous conditions prevailed so that the central weather station provided reliable areal estimates of reference evaporation during the observation period March–April 1999. This may be a result of not accounting for high wind speeds and roughness found in wetlands that lead to widespread atmospheric mixing. It should be noted this analysis was based upon data collected during the period March-April when wind direction was constant (westerly) and the land surface was moist. There could be more variation at other times of the year that would lead to greater heterogeneity in actual evaporation. Keywords: evaporation, Penman-Monteith, automatic weather station, fetch, wetland
Testing the transferability of regression equations derived from small sub-catchments to a large area in central Sweden
Authors: Xu C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. There is an ever increasing need to apply hydrological models to catchments where streamflow data are unavailable or to large geographical regions where calibration is not feasible. Estimation of model parameters from spatial physical data is the key issue in the development and application of hydrological models at various scales. To investigate the suitability of transferring the regression equations relating model parameters to physical characteristics developed from small sub-catchments to a large region for estimating model parameters, a conceptual snow and water balance model was optimised on all the sub-catchments in the region. A multiple regression analysis related model parameters to physical data for the catchments and the regression equations derived from the small sub-catchments were used to calculate regional parameter values for the large basin using spatially aggregated physical data. For the model tested, the results support the suitability of transferring the regression equations to the larger region. Keywords: water balance modelling,large scale, multiple regression, regionalisation
Research NoteEffect of drought and fires on the quality of water in Lithuanian rivers
Authors: Sakalauskiene G. , Ignatavicius G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In August and September 2002, concentrations of heavy metals (copper, lead, and zinc) were 21-74% more than in previous years in Lithuanian rivers. Such a sudden increase in heavy metal pollution reduces the value of any water body for fishing or recreation and poses a potential risk to the environment and to human health. Droughts in the summer of 2002 led to forest and peat bog fires all over Lithuania and may have caused the increase in concentrations of heavy metals detected in Lithuanian rivers in August 2002. The fires could have changed the pH in the top layers of the soil, overcome geochemical barriers in the soil and enabled heavy metals to migrate from the soil to the groundwater and from river bottom sediments to the surface water. Keywords: heavy metals, river water quality, Lithuania
Modelling the recovery of surface water chemistry and the ecological implications in the British uplands
Authors: Helliwell R. C. , Jenkins A. , Ferrier R. C. , Cosby B. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Abstract: The MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwaters in Catchments) model has been calibrated to three acid sensitive regions in the UK: Galloway, the South Pennines and Wales. These calibrations use the best available data for surface water, soil and deposition, from several UK data bases and regional sampling programmes. The model is capable of reproducing observed base cation and acid anion concentrations as reflected by a close match between observed and simulated acid neutralising capacity (ANC). Predictions to 2016 under currently agreed emission reductions, the Gothenburg Protocol, show that ANC greater than zero will be achieved at 100%, 86% and 100% of sites in Galloway, the Pennines and Wales, respectively. This indicates the potential for biological recovery and a return to ‘good status’ although chemical conditions remain some way from simulated pre-acidification conditions. In the longer term, beyond 2036 (20 years after compliance with the Gothenburg protocol), the model indicates that increased N leakage to surface waters may cause deterioration in the chemical status. Keywords: recovery, acidification, modelling, upland UK, ecology
Modelling long-term changes in stream water and soil chemistry in catchments with contrasting vulnerability to acidification (Lysina and Pluhuv Bor, Czech Republic)
Authors: Hruška J. , Krám P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In two Czech catchments covered by Norway spruce forests, the MAGIC model was used to simulate annual stream water and soil chemistry for the period 1851–2030. These two sites represent geochemical end-members of ecosystem sensitivity to acidification (acid-sensitive granitic Lysina catchment vs. acid-resistant serpentinitic Pluhuv Bor catchment). Although the total deposition of sulphur to the catchments declined by 75% between 1990 and 2002, the recovery of stream water pH was relatively small over this period. At Lysina, the annual discharge-weighted mean pH of stream water increased only from 3.92 to 4.01, although SO4 concentration declined very sharply from 570 μeq L–1 in 1990 to 150 μeq L–1 in 2002. Stream water buffering was caused mainly by dissociation of organic acids. At Pluhuv Bor, the annual mean pH varied inversely with the annual discharge. Stream water concentrations of SO4 declined dramatically at Pluhuv Bor, from 1040 μeq L–1 in 1992 to 220 μeq L–1 in 2002. Using atmospheric deposition as specified in the Gothenburg Protocol, the model predicts that, at Lysina, stream water pH will increase to 4.3 and soil base saturation will increase to 6.0% by 2030 (from 5.6% in 2002); corresponding pre-industrial stream water pH was simulated to be 5.5 and soil base saturation to be 25%. At Pluhuv Bor, the pre-industrial pH was estimated to be 7.2 and the corresponding base saturation was 94%. Large anthropogenic acidification in the 20th century caused only a small decline in pH (to 6.9) and base saturation (to 88%). Simulations in accordance with the Gothenburg Protocol predict that the pH should increase by 0.2 pH units and the base saturation by 1% by 2030. Under this protocol, critical loads of atmospheric deposition for SO4 and NO3 will not be exceeded at Pluhuv Bor but will be exceeded at Lysina. Keywords: MAGIC model, catchment, critical loads, Gothenburg Protocol, soil and water acidification, granite, serpentinite, Czech Republic
A non-parametric hidden Markov model for climate state identification
Authors: Lambert M. F. , Whiting J. P. , Metcalfe A. V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Hidden Markov models (HMMs) can allow for the varying wet and dry cycles in the climate without the need to simulate supplementary climate variables. The fitting of a parametric HMM relies upon assumptions for the state conditional distributions. It is shown that inappropriate assumptions about state conditional distributions can lead to biased estimates of state transition probabilities. An alternative non-parametric model with a hidden state structure that overcomes this problem is described. It is shown that a two-state non-parametric model produces accurate estimates of both transition probabilities and the state conditional distributions. The non-parametric model can be used directly or as a technique for identifying appropriate state conditional distributions to apply when fitting a parametric HMM. The non-parametric model is fitted to data from ten rainfall stations and four streamflow gauging stations at varying distances inland from the Pacific coast of Australia. Evidence for hydrological persistence, though not mathematical persistence, was identified in both rainfall and streamflow records, with the latter showing hidden states with longer sojourn times. Persistence appears to increase with distance from the coast. Keywords: Hidden Markov models, non-parametric, two-state model, climate states, persistence, probability distributions
Nutrient water quality of the Wye catchment, UK: exploring patterns and fluxes using the Environment Agency data archives
Authors: Jarvie H. P. , Neal C. , Withers P. J. A. , Robinson A. , Salter N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Water quality data, collected by the Environment Agency in England and Wales over 10 years (1991 – 2000) were used to examine the spatial distribution of nutrient pollution risk and for assessing broad-scale spatial and temporal variability in nutrient fluxes across the Wye catchment. Nutrient water quality across the upper and middle Wye catchment, and along the main River Wye, is generally very good. However, the main areas of concern lie in the small tributaries in the south and east of the catchment, which have lower dilution capacity and high agricultural and effluent inputs, and where mean Total Reactive Phosphorus (TRP) in some cases exceed 1 mg-P l-1. Indeed, mass load calculations have demonstrated that the lowland south and east portion of the catchment contributes more than 85% of the whole-catchment TRP and more than 78% of nitrate (NO3‾) loads. Ratios of NO3‾:Ca were used to fingerprint different water-types across the catchment, linked to weathering and agricultural activity. The Wye catchment has been subject to two major sets of perturbations during the study period: (i) climatic fluctuations, with a drought during 1995-6, followed by a subsequent drought-break in 1997/8, and extreme high river flows in the autumn/winter of 2000/2001, and (ii) introduction of tertiary P-treatment at major sewage treatment works in the catchment. The implications of these perturbations for the nutrient water quality of the Wye catchment are discussed. Recommendations are made for more targeted monitoring to directly assess diffuse source nutrient contributions. Keywords: nutrients, phosphate, phosphorus, nitrate, nitrogen, river, Wye, PSYCHIC, Defra
Hydrological and meteorological aspects of floods in the Alps: an overview
Authors: Bacchi Baldassare , Ranzi Roberto
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This introductory paper presents and summarises recent research on meteorological and hydrological aspects of floods in the Alps. The research activities were part of the international research project RAPHAEL (Runoff and Atmospheric Processes for flood HAzard forEcasting and controL) together with experiments within the Special Observing Period-SOP conducted in autumn 1999 for the Mesoscale Alpine Programme —MAP. The investigations were based on both field experiments and numerical simulations, using meteorological and hydrological models, of ten major floods that occurred in the past decade in the European Alps. The two basins investigated were the Ticino (6599 km2) at the Lago Maggiore outlet on the southern side of the Alps and the Ammer catchment (709 km2) in the Bavarian Alps. These catchments and their sub-catchments cover an appropriate range of spatial scales with which to investigate and test in an operational context the potential of both mesoscale meteorological and distributed hydrological models for flood forecasting. From the data analyses and model simulations described in this Special Issue, the major sources of uncertainties for flood forecasts in mid-size mountain basins are outlined and the accuracy flood forecasts is assessed. Keywords: floods, mountain hydrology, meteorological models, Alps
Precipitation forecasting by a mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model: eight years of experience
Authors: Kaufmann P. , Schubiger F. , Binder P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Swiss Model, a hydrostatic numerical weather prediction model, has been used at MeteoSwiss for operational forecasting at the meso-beta scale (mesh-size 14 km) from 1994 until 2001. The quality of the quantitative precipitation forecasts is evaluated for the eight years of operation. The seasonal precipitation over Switzerland and its dependence on altitude is examined for both model forecasts and observations using the Swiss rain gauge network sampling daily precipitation at over 400 stations for verification. The mean diurnal cycle of precipitation is verified against the automatic surface observation network on the basis of hourly recordings. In winter, there is no diurnal forcing of precipitation and the modelled precipitation agrees with the observed values. In summer, the convection in the model starts too early, overestimates the amount of precipitation and is too short-lived. Skill scores calculated for six-hourly precipitation sums show a constant level of performance over the model life cycle. Dry and wet seasons influence the model performance more than the model changes during its operational period. The comprehensive verification of the model precipitation is complemented by the discussion of a number of heavy rain events investigated during the RAPHAEL project. The sensitivities to a number of model components are illustrated, namely the driving boundary fields, the internal partitioning of parameterised and grid-scale precipitation, the advection scheme and the vertical resolution. While a small impact of the advection scheme had to be expected, the increasing overprediction of rain with increasing vertical resolution in the RAPHAEL case studies was larger than previously thought. The frequent update of the boundary conditions enhances the positioning of the rain in the model. Keywords: numerical weather prediction, quantitative precipitation forecast, model verification
Soil moisture monitoring in the Toce valley (Italy)
Authors: Menziani M. , Pugnaghi S. , Vincenzi S. , Santangelo R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the framework of the Mesoscale Alpine Programme (MAP), soil water content profiles were collected at a point station in the Toce Valley (Lago Maggiore MAP Target Area). The data are for the first 70 cm depth of soil for the period April–November, 1999. All measurements were made by a Time Domain Reflectometry device. The time variation of the water stored in a column of soil was estimated by a mass balance method. Evaporation was estimated from the data collected in the summer period. Likewise, by applying the mass balance method to the data collected during and after heavy precipitation events, the water infiltrated into the soil was also estimated. A qualitative evaluation of ponding and/or runoff as the difference between the precipitated and the drained water was obtained under suitable assumptions. Furthermore, the time evolution of the soil water content profile was studied by solving the Richards equation both analytically and numerically for two particular cases: the driest period and a period following a heavy precipitation event. Finally, during the MAP Special Observing Period, two intensive campaigns were performed, together with measurements using an airborne passive microwave radiometer, to assess the spatial distribution of the surface (0–30 cm depth) soil water content in fields with different physical and agricultural characteristics. Keywords: soil water content, Time Domain Reflectometry, TDR temperature-dependence, evaporation, infiltration, runoff, linearised Richards equation.
Application of time-series analyses to the hydrological functioning of an Alpine karstic system: the case of Bange-L’Eau-Morte
Authors: Mathevet T. , Lepiller M. l. , Mangin A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper analyses the hydrological functioning of the Bange-L’Eau-Morte karstic system using classical and original techniques, recession curves, correlation and spectral analyses, noise analysis and wavelet analyses. The main characteristics that can be deduced are the recession coefficients, the dynamic volume of storage, the response time of the system, the quickflow and baseflow components and the snowmelt characteristics. The non-stationary and timescale-dependent behaviour of the system is studied and particular features of the runoff are shown. The step-by-step use of these different techniques provides a general methodology applicable to different karstic systems to provide quantifiable and objective criteria for differentiation and comparison of karstic systems. Keywords: karstic hydrology, Bauges mountains, recession curves, correlation and spectral analysis, wavelet analysis, snowmelt
The use of the linear reservoir concept to quantify the impact of changes in land use on the hydrology of catchments in the Andes
Authors: Buytaert W. , De Bièvre B. , Wyseure G. , Deckers J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The high Andes region of South Ecuador (The Páramo) is characterised by a cold and wet climate. Most soils of the Páramo region are Andosols and Histosols, with a very high water retention capacity that is affected irreversibly by drying. This key property of Páramo soils buffers catchment outflow, resulting in an almost uniform outflow pattern which, notwithstanding the variability in rainfall, can be very variable in space and time. These soils serve as the most important reservoir of drinking and irrigation water for the densely populated inter-Andean depression region. The Páramo has long served only as an extensive grazing area but recent population pressure and land scarcity have increased cultivation. Two small Páramo catchments (about 2 km2) were monitored intensively for precipitation and discharge for over a year to assess the effect of such land-use changes on the hydrological properties. One catchment is in an undisturbed area and grazed intensively while in the other, local farmers started intensive drainage for cultivation of potatoes about five years ago. The linear reservoir concept has been used to assess the overall retention capacity of the catchments in terms of both peak response and base flow. In this model, every catchment is considered as a series of independent parallel reservoirs, each characterised by mean residence times (T). In every catchment, three major mean residence times can be distinguished. In the undisturbed catchment, an immediate response, characterised by a T of 5.4 hours, is followed by a slower response with a T of 44.3 h. The base flow has a mean T value of 360 h. The response of the cultivated catchment is similar with T values of 3.6 h, 27.2 h and 175 h, respectively. As a result, in the disturbed catchment, water release is about 40% faster than in the undisturbed catchment, so that the base flow falls rapidly to lower levels. The linear reservoir model is a simple way of quantifying the impact of land use changes on the water regulation capacity of Páramo catchments. Keywords: linear reservoir, Páramo, mountain hydrology, land use changes, Ecuador
Integration of spatial datasets to support the review of hydrometric networks and the identification of representative catchments
Authors: Laize C. L. R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The rapidly growing demand for river flow data has increased pressure on hydrometric monitoring programmes to match a wide range of application-focused information needs, in particular, the identification of representative catchments. This paper investigates a novel methodology based on a Geographical Information System to support cost-effective hydrometric network management and information delivery. Raster datasets are integrated as matrices describing the relationship between variables within any given area. Matrices are then compared to index how representative catchments are of a specified reference area. Using south-east Scotland as the reference area, four applications illustrate the methodology’s potential to address a variety of issues (e.g. network rationalisation, selection of impact catchments, identification of new gauging sites). The method is implemented using elevation and land-use datasets. Keywords: spatial information, Geographical Information System, hydrometry, network management, network rationalisation, representative catchment, regionalisation
Relationships between the El-Niño Southern Oscillation and spate flows in southern Africa and Australia
Authors: Whiting J. P. , Lambert M. F. , Metcalfe A. V. , Adamson P. T. , Franks S. W. , Kuczera G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The flow records of arid zone rivers are characterised by a high degree of seasonal variability, being dominated by long periods of very low or zero flow. Discrete flow events in these rivers are influenced by aseasonal factors such as global climate forcings. The atmospheric circulations of the El-Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) have been shown to influence climate regimes across many parts of the world. Strong teleconnections between changing ENSO regimes and discharges are likely to be observed in highly variable arid zones. In this paper, the influence of ENSO mechanisms on the flow records of two arid zone rivers in each of Australia and Southern Africa are identified. ENSO signals, together with multi-decadal variability in their impact as identified through seasonal values of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) index, are shown to influence both the rate of occurrence and the size of discrete flow episodes in these rivers. Keywords: arid zones, streamflow, spates, climate variability, ENSO, Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, IPO
A comparison of flood extent modelling approaches through constraining uncertainties on gauge data
Authors: Werner M. G. F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A comparison is made of 1D, 2D and integrated 1D-2D hydraulic models in predicting flood stages in a 17 km reach of the River Saar in Germany. The models perform comparably when calibrated against limited data available from a single gauge in the reach for three low to medium flood events. In validation against a larger event than those used in calibration, extrapolation with the 1D and particularly the integrated 1D-2D model is reliable, if uncertain, while the 2D model is unreliable. The difference stems from the way in which the models deal with flow in the main channel and in the floodplain and with turbulent momentum interchange between the two domains. The importance of using spatial calibration data for testing models giving spatial predictions is shown. Even simple binary (eye-witness) observations on the presence or absence of flooding in establishing a reliable model structure to predict flood extent can be very valuable. Keywords: floods, hydraulic modelling, model calibration, uncertainty analysis
Research Note:An approach to integrated assessement of reservoir siltation: the Joaquín Costa reservoir as a case study
Authors: Navas A. , Valero Garcés B. , Machín J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In 1932, the Esera river was dammed at the foothills of the Pyrenean External Ranges; since then, sedimentation has reduced its water storage capacity by a third. This study of the sediments in the Joaquín Costa reservoir has been based on detailed sedimentological examination and other analysis of mineralogy, grain size distribution and the chemical components of the materials accumulated at the bottom of the reservoir. Interpretations are based on results from four sediment cores collected at sites representative of the main environments in the reservoir. Records of known flood events and of reservoir management data have been combined with a 137Cs-derived chronology. Thus, it has been possible to ascribe the sedimentary record at the different reservoir environments to specific years, as well as some main changes in the facies types and sediment components. This methodology is a first approach to assessing siltation processes and dynamics in Mediterranean mountain reservoirs. Keywords: reservoir siltation, mineralogy, sedimentology,sedimentation rates, 137Cs, sediment tracing, mountain reservoir, central Spanish Pyrenees
Research Note:Determination of soil hydraulic properties using pedotransfer functions in a semi-arid basin, Turkey
Authors: Tombul M. , Akyürek Z. , Ünal Sorman A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Spatial and temporal variations in soil hydraulic properties such as soil moisture q(h) and hydraulic conductivity K(q) or K(h), may affect the performance of hydrological models. Moreover, the cost of determining soil hydraulic properties by field or laboratory methods makes alternative indirect methods desirable. In this paper, various pedotransfer functions (PTFs) are used to estimate soil hydraulic properties for a small semi-arid basin (Kurukavak) in the north-west of Turkey. The field measurements were a good fit with the retention curve derived using Rosetta SSC-BD for a loamy soil. To predict parameters to describe soil hydraulic characteristics, continuous PTFs such as Rosetta SSC-BD (Model H3) and SSC-BD-q33q1500 (Model H5) have been applied. Using soil hydraulic properties that vary in time and space, the characteristic curves for three soil types, loam, sandy clay loam and sandy loam have been developed. Spatial and temporal variations in soil moisture have been demonstrated on a plot and catchment scale for loamy soil. It is concluded that accurate site-specific measurements of the soil hydraulic characteristics are the only and probably the most promising method to progress in the future. Keywords: soil hydraulic properties, soil characteristic curves, PTFs
Measuring rainfall to a forest canopy: an assessment of the performance of canopy level raingauges
Authors: Robinson M. , Grant S. J. , Hudson J. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Accurate rainfall measurements are crucial for water resource and environmental assessments but can be difficult to achieve in extensive areas of forest. This paper reviews the different techniques for measuring rainfall to a forest area and presents the results of a 5-year experiment comparing the catches of gauges installed above a forest canopy with those of ground level gauges outside the forest. It examines the consistency of the catches between the canopy gauges, the sensitivity of the catch to the height of the gauge rim above the forest canopy, and compares the canopy gauge catches to the ‘true’ rainfall in ground level gauges just outside the forest. The study shows that suitably designed and maintained canopy gauges can provide consistent measures of rainfall to a forest surface that are sufficiently accurate for most purposes and offer a preferable alternative to measurements in small clearings. Keywords: rainfall, raingauge, forest canopy, water balance, Plynlimon
Impacts of the North Atlantic Oscillation on stream water chemistry in mid-Wales
Authors: Ness L. , Neal C. , Davies T. D. , Reynolds B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Analysis of winter stream chemistry data from the Afon Hafren in mid-Wales reveals links between stream chemistry and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). K, Y, Al and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations increase during high NAO index months (relatively warm and wet weather), while Ca, Mg and NO3 concentrations increase during low NAO months (relatively cold and dry conditions) with the increased concentrations lasting into the next month. The cause of the concentration changes varies between constituents: Y, Al and DOC are impacted by short term variations in rainfall; Mg and Ca are influenced by flow conditions; and NO3 is temperature controlled. The dominant control mechanism for K concentration seems to be related to rainfall after tree felling has taken place but, prior to felling, the relationships are less certain. Keywords: nitrate, potassium, yttrium, aluminium, Dissolved Organic Carbon, magnesium, calcium, North Atlantic Oscillation, stream chemistry, Plynlimon, Hafren
The impact of conifer harvesting on stream water quality: the Afon Hafren, mid-Wales
Authors: Neal C. , Reynolds B. , Neal M. , Wickham H. , Hill L. , Williams B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Results for long term water quality monitoring are described for the headwaters of the principal headwater stream of the River Severn, the Afon Hafren. The results are linked to within-catchment information to describe the influence of conifer harvesting on stream and shallow groundwater quality. A 19-year record of water quality data for the Hafren (a partially spruce forested catchment with podzolic soil) shows the classic patterns of hydrochemical change in relation to concentration and flow responses for upland forested systems. Progressive felling of almost two-thirds of the forest over the period of study resulted in little impact from harvesting and replanting in relation to stream water quality. However, at the local scale, a six years’ study of felling indicated significant release of nitrate into both surface and groundwater; this persisted for two or three years before declining. The study has shown two important features. Firstly, phased felling has led to minimal impacts on stream water. This contrasts with the results of an experimental clear fell for the adjacent catchment of the Afon Hore where a distinct water quality deterioration was observed for a few years. Secondly, there are localised zones with varying hydrology that link to groundwater sources with fracture flow properties. This variability makes extrapolation to the catchment scale difficult without very extensive monitoring. The implications of these findings are discussed in relation to strong support for the use of phased felling-based management of catchments and the complexities of within catchment processes. Keywords: deforestation, water quality, acidification, pH, nitrate, alkalinity, ANC, aluminium, dissolved organic carbon, Plynlimon, forest, spruce, Afon Hafren, podzol