bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The Business(es) of the Chinese State
Authors: Broadman Harry G.
Published: March 2003

The state industrial sector is the Achilles heel of China's otherwise remarkable economic performance over the past two decades. Most other countries in transition from socialism have transformed SOEs into commercial entities through systematic, market‐driven restructuring and privatisation to become more efficient and competitive. In China, a series of innovative, if often administrative, insitutional reforms since 1978 have begun to achieve the Chinese authorities' goal of ‘separating governemtn from business.’ But the Chinese State still maintains ownership of key enterprises, and government agencies carry out shareholder functions typically performed by private owners in a market economy. Although privatisation and restructuring of SOEs is occurring, it mostly pertains to small and medium sized firms. For the principal businesses, by contrast, the creation of large state enterprise groups and holding companies (and experiments in other forms of ‘state asset management’) have become the main form of restructuring. Today, China's SOEs still account for more than one‐quarter of national production, two‐thirds of total assets, more than half of urban employment and almost three‐quarters of investment. While direct budgetary subsidies have declined, explicit and implicit subsidies are still making their way to prop up loss‐making SOEs through the financial system and other routes. At the same time, SOEs are still producing non‐marketable products, resulting in a sizeable inventory overhang. These inefficiencies and distortions represent a drain on the country's resources and thus present a challenge to the Chinese leadership for reform. This paper sheds light on these challenges by analysing the incentives and constraints on China's SOE reform programme. Four critical aspects of the reforms are highlighted and evaluated against the backdrop of international experience: clarification of property rights; establishment of large group/holding companies and other new organisational structures; improved corporate governance incentives; and implementation of international financial accounting and auditing practices. The paper concludes with policy recommendations.
Electronic Commerce, Trade and Tariff Revenue: A Quantitative Assessment
Authors: Mattoo Aaditya , Perez‐Esteve Rosa , Schuknecht Ludger
Published: March 2003

This paper assesses the quantitative importance of electronic commerce in trade and tariff revenue, in light of the WTO decision on ‘duty‐free cyberspace’. Electronic commerce is likely to boost international trade in software, digitizable media products (music, books) and many services sectors significantly. However, despite the growing importance of electronic commerce for trade, tariff revenue loss from duty‐free electronic commerce is unlikely to be significant.
Trade Liberalisation and Poverty: What are the Links?
Authors: Winters L. Alan
Published: March 2003

This paper asks whether a developing country's own trade liberalisation could translate into increased poverty, and what information would be required to identify whether it will do so. It plots the channels through which such effects might operate, identifying the static effects via four broad groups of institutions – households, distribution channels, factor markets and government – and the dynamic issues of volatility, long–term economic growth, and short–term adjustment stresses. An increase in the price of something a household sells (labour, good, service) increases its welfare. Thus, the paper first explores the likely effects of trade liberalisation on the prices of goods and services, taking into account the distribution sector. Also critical is whether trade reform creates or destroys markets. Trade reform is also likely to affects factor prices – of which the wages of the unskilled is the most important for poverty purposes. If reform boosts the demand for labour–intensive products, it boosts the demand for labour and wages and/or employment will increase. However, not all developing countries are relatively abundant in unskilled labour and trade can boost demand for semi–skilled rather than unskilled, labour. Hence poverty alleviation is not guaranteed. Trade reform can affect tariff revenue, but much less frequently and adversely than is popularly imagined. Even if it does, it is a political decision, not a law of nature, that the poor should suffer the resulting new taxes or cuts in government expenditure. Opening up the economy can reduce risk and variability because world markets are usually more stable than domestic ones. But sometimes it will increase them because stabilisation schemes are undermined or because residents switch to riskier activities. The non–poor can generally tide themselves over adjustment shocks from a liberalisation, so public policy should focus on whether the initially poor and near temporary, setbacks. The key to sustained poverty alleviation is economic growth. There is little reason to fear that growth will not boost the incomes of the poor. Similarly, while the argument that openness stimulates long–run growth has still not been completely proven, there is every presumption that it will.
Pidgin and English in Melanesia: Is There a Continuum?
Authors: Siegel Jeff
Published: March 2003

It is generally accepted that there is a post‐pidgin or post‐creole continuum in Melanesia, similar to those found in West Africa and the Caribbean. But is there really? This question is answered by examining in detail the linguistic features of Tok Pisin (the Papua New Guinea variety of Melanesian Pidgin) which reportedly result from decreolization (or depidginization) and the linguistic features of Papua New Guinea English, looking for the influence of Tok Pisin. Code‐switching and transference between Tok Pisin and English and the reported existence of intermediate forms are also discussed. It is concluded that an English‐to‐pidgin continuum does not exist in Papua New Guinea or in the other Melanesian countries. The distinctiveness and status of Melanesian Pidgin are described as possible reasons for the lack of such a continuum. The situation in Melanesia does not support the life‐cycle view of pidgin/creole development, and lends weight to the view that post‐creole continua result from early variation and not later decreolization.
The Configuration of Liberia’s Englishes
Authors: Singler John Victor
Published: March 2003

‘Liberian English,’ the non‐standard English‐lexifier speech of Liberia, can be divided into three varieties: Kru Pidgin English, spoken by Kru mariners and migrant workers; Settler English, spoken by descendants of nineteenth‐century African American immigrants to Liberia; and Vernacular Liberian English, spoken by the rest of Liberia’s English‐speaking population. An examination of 21 speakers of putatively basilectal and lower‐mesolectual Vernacular Liberian English (VLE) sets out the basis for the assertion that VLE comprises a single continuum, but the examination also introduces complications: five lects are proposed to cover the treatment of past‐tense aspect for these speakers, but the relationship of one lect to another is not always fluid; moreover, still with regard to tense‐aspect, two speakers of the 21 seem to fall outside the continuum entirely. Tense‐aspect in VLE is different from tense‐aspect in other Atlantic pidgins/creoles. Those varieties are aspect‐prominent, but VLE is highly tense‐sensitive, ordinarily merging tense with aspect. The cornerstone of VLE’s treatment of past‐tense aspect is the preverbal marker wa, used most basilectally as the primary marker of all types of past‐tense aspect (including statives) and used all the way along the continuum to mark statives.
Until in Singapore English
Authors: Bao Zhiming , Wee Lionel
Published: March 2003

This paper investigates the syntax and semantics of one word, until, in Standard British English and Singapore English. We show that while until is used in similar fashion in both varieties of English, it has uses in Singapore English which are not available in Standard British English. After having analyzed the syntax and semantics of one particle in Chinese, namely dao, we show the parallel between until in Singapore English and dao in Chinese, and argue that the additional meanings of until in Singapore English are due to the substrate influence of Chinese. It has been extensively documented in the literature that substrate influence is structural in character. Our finding is significant in this respect. The function words of English, as exemplified in the conjunction/preposition until, may undergo change under the influence of the linguistic substratum.
Code‐Alteration among Arab College Students
Authors: Hussein Riyad F.
Published: March 2003

The present study investigates Jordanian university students' attitudes toward code‐switching (CS), and code‐mixing (CM), to find out when and why they code‐switch and the most frequent English expressions that they use in Arabic discourse. For this purpose a three‐section questionnaire was developed and distributed to students (N = 352). Section 1 elicited biographical data; Section 2 elicited students' attitudes toward CS/CM in relation to English, toward CS/CM in relation to Arabic, and toward CS/CM in relation to language users; and Section 3 elicited data as to why and where students CS/CM with English and the motives behind that. The students are shown to have negative as well as positive attitudes toward CS/CM with English in Arabic discourse – attitudes that are in some ways contrary to expectation. The results also indicate that students CS/CM with English for a variety of reasons, the most important of which is the lack of Arabic equivalents for English terms or expressions. Finally, there is frequent use of many English expressions, which varied in range and scope in the speech of Arab educated speakers.
English in Wales and a ‘Welsh Valleys’ accent
Authors: Walters J. Roderick
Published: March 2003

The topic of this paper is ‘Welsh English’. Firstly, a brief historical account is given of the growth of English in Wales, because it has only recently supplanted Welsh as the dominant language and the topic of ‘Welsh English’ can scarcely be approached without some understanding of the interaction between the two languages. Then, a short description is given of an accent in the industrialized ‘Valleys’ area of South Wales, where less than 10 per cent of the population can now speak Welsh. Its phonology is examined to see what are its defining characteristics and also ‘how Welsh it is’, i.e. the extent of influence of the Welsh language upon it. It appears that the strongest and most enduring Welsh language influence on the accent is found in its prosodics–its rhythm, the way that stress is realized and intonation.
English in the prison services: a case of breaking the law?
Authors: Klerk Vivian de , Barkhuizen Gary
Published: March 2003

In this paper we report on an investigation into the use of English in a prison in the Eastern Cape Province, run by the Department of Correctional Services (CS) five years after the declaration of an official multilingual policy. The investigation consisted of a range of interviews and observations in this institution, aimed at establishing the extent to which the national language policy is actually being implemented on the ground. Findings suggest that the use of English predominates in the high, official domains, that there is a marked avoidance of Afrikaans, and that Xhosa, the main language of the Eastern Cape Province, increasingly occupies the lower, unofficial domains. Tensions between policy and practice are discussed, and it is argued that the CS has shown that pragmatism is a much stronger force than ideology. While the roles of Xhosa and Afrikaans appear to be in the process of reversing in the Grahamstown prison, English has emerged as stronger there than it has ever been before. And because it will continue to be a necessary prerequisite for the mobility and promotion of staff in the country as a whole, and the lingua franca for an increasingly mobile criminal population (which means the prisons are likely to become increasingly linguistically diverse, rather than settling into regional patterns), everyone will have to have some proficiency in English, which, ironically, will promote and strengthen it even more.
Mock languages and symbolic power: the South African radio series Applesammy and Naidoo
Authors: Mesthrie Rajend
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the text of a popular radio series in Natal in the 1940s, Applesammy and Naidoo by Ray Rich, with a view to adding to the historical data base on Indian South African English. In order to ascertain its reliability as a source of colloquial data a comparison is made between direct speech of the Indian characters in the series and tape recordings of pre‐basilectal speakers (the least proficient within Indian South African English). These comparisons reveal that although the radio series draws on constructions that do occur in the dialect/interlanguage of the times, the grammatical functions of these constructions are greatly distorted. Rather than illuminating early forms of the dialect in question, the text reveals more about the nature of linguistic stereotyping. This turns out to parallel social stereotyping, especially in the nature of the overgeneralisations involved. The term ‘mock language’ seems most appropriate for the parody under discussion (cf. Hill, 1993; Ronkin and Karn, 1999), which serves to reinforce relations of what Bourdieu describes as ‘symbolic power’.
Hybridized discourse: social openness and functions of English media in post–Mao China
Authors: Zhongshi Guo , Yu Huang
Published: March 2003

This study investigates the real and potential functions of English media in the milieu of social openness in post–Mao China. The unique position of China’s English media reflects key characteristics of a ‘hybridized discourse’ and a style of reporting which seems both keen to control and eager to please. Three socio–political functions emerge from this mixed product. Consensual functions denote conformity to official ideology, with the media assuming the double role of political advocates and economic ‘boosters’. Conflictual functions, on the other hand, enable the media to promote cosmopolitan worldviews, pluralistic opinions, and occasionally alternative voices. Somewhere in the middle of the two opposing platforms are the Instrumental functions that emphasize media’s role as an information conduit, a language–learning tool, and a professional role model. This article examines the varying degrees to which China’s English media perform all three sets of functions, identifies conditions and timing for selective emphasis, and discusses the social and theoretical implications of studying the English media’s functions.
Barbarian as a foreign language: English in China’s Schools
Authors: Adamson Bob
Published: March 2003

The ambiguous relationship between politics and society in China and the English language – the tongue of military aggressors, barbarians, imperialists and virulent anti–Communists, as well as of trade partners, academics, technical experts, advisers, tourists and popular culture – historically has created tensions that have been manifested in social upheavals and swings in education policy. In this paper, the shifting role and status of the English language within social, economic and political contexts in China are examined from a historical perspective in order to understand and explain state educational policy regarding the language. The paper argues that, since the mid–nineteenth century, the government of China has avoided the potential pitfalls of cultural transfer by adopting a strategy of selective appropriation under state control. The evidence for this assertion is drawn mainly from official policy documents, policy actions and policy debates. At times, assimilation was very limited for political reasons, at others the process has been freer. In the former cases, English has not been ascribed a significant role in state policy; in the latter cases, the language has been promoted, most notably in the curriculum of schools, colleges and universities.
English idiom and Republican China: repatriated subject in Wong–Quincey’s Chinese Hunter
Authors: Zou John
Published: March 2003

Since Fanon’s critique of the national bourgeoisie in The Wretched of the Earth, the subjectivity of repatriated natives under colonial circumstances tends to be associated with the ‘nationalist pitfall’. Conditioned by the cultural or material capital of the west, these members of the native middle class are said to be committed to a vision of nationalism fundamentally limited by their class interest. In this essay, I present a reading of Chinese Hunter, a set of notes about big game hunting in northern China written by John Wong–Quincey, a Chinese academic who taught Shakespeare and western drama at Beijing’s Tsinghua College for many years. My approach to reinstate the relevancy of colonial repatriation as an issue of postcolonial world history is centered on the processes of subject formation within the Althusserian context of interpellation. Following Judith Butler’s recent allegorical interpretation of Althusser, I relate Wong–Quincey’s physical and linguistic emulation of the English hunter to the trope of bien parler which for Althusser serves as the ultimate model of ideological compliance in the reproduction of social reality and relations.
An Allocation Rule with Wealth‐Regressive Tax Rates
Authors: Sanver M. Remzi
Published: March 2003

We introduce a public good allocation rule whose direct implementation by asking agents their endowments leads to Nash equilibrium outcomes—always Pareto dominating voluntary contributions outcomes. Although the Nash equilibrium allocations induced by this rule are not Pareto optimal in general, they are so in two‐person economies.
Optimal Monetary Policy, Taxes, and Public Debt in an Intertemporal Equilibrium
Authors: Crettez Bertrand , Michel Philippe , Wigniolle Bertrand
Published: March 2003

This article is devoted to a study of the optimal monetary and fiscal policies within the framework of an overlapping generations model with cash‐in‐advance constraints. We first characterize the intertemporal equilibrium. Then we show how to decentralize the optimal growth path using available policy instruments (i.e., labor income and capital taxes, public debt, money supply). Between the four instruments: wages and capital taxes, debt and monetary policy, one is redundant among the three last which implies that the Friedman Rule is only a special case.
Optimal Factor Income Taxation in the Presence of Unemployment
Authors: Koskela Erkki , Schöb Ronnie
Published: March 2003

According to conventional wisdom internationally mobile capital should not be taxed or should be taxed at a lower rate than labour. An important underlying assumption behind this view is that there are no market imperfections, in particular that labour markets clear competitively. At least for Europe, which has been suffering from high unemployment for a long time, this assumption does not seem appropriate. This paper studies the optimal factor taxation in the presence of unemployment which results from the union‐firm wage bargaining both with optimal and restricted profit taxation when capital is internationally mobile and labour immobile. In setting tax rates the government is assumed to behave as a Stackelberg leader towards the private sector playing a Nash game. The main conclusion is that in the presence of unemployment, the conventional wisdom turns on its head; capital should generally be taxed at a higher rate than labour.
Competition and Efficiency in a Spatial Setting
Authors: Parr John B. , Swales J. Kim
Published: March 2003

In this paper our primary concern is with a spatial model of competing firms in a regional industry. The firms are producing for an extraregional market and are located so as to gain exclusive access to a dispersed raw‐material input. After outlining the form of the industry long‐run average cost curve, we specify the equilibrium outcome, both for the individual firm and the regional industry. We demonstrate that the industry long‐run supply curve does not coincide with the industry long‐run average cost curve. We further show that the outcome in the spatial model results from the separation of firms, each firm having its own domain, part or all of which becomes its supply area.
The Importance of the Distribution of Consumers in Horizontal Product Differentiation
Authors: Calvó‐Armengol Antoni , Zenou Yves
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the importance of the distribution of consumers in Hotelling’s circle on the comparison between the optimal and the market equilibrium levels of diversity. It finds that when most consumers are located very close to the firms, the result of Salop—that the equilibrium number of firms is larger than the optimal one (surplus maximizing)—can be reversed.
Corporate Capitalism and the Common Good: A Framework for Addressing the Challenges of a Global Economy
Authors: Ogletree Thomas W.
Published: March 2003

This article ventures a framework for assessing the contributions capitalism might make to the common good. Capitalism has manifest strengths—efficiency, growth, support for human freedoms, encouragement for collaboration among nations that are not natural allies. Processes that generate these goods have negative consequences as well—the exploitation of labor, environmental harm, the marginalization of the “least advantaged,” the reduction of politics to strategies for advancing special interests. To constrain the negative consequences, public oversight is necessary. The challenge is to devise policies that will limit the harms while protecting conditions that enable free markets to flourish. The paper concludes with an illustrative sketch of policy proposals that exemplify this goal.
Teaching Comparative Religious Ethics: A Review Essay
Authors: Schilbrack Kevin
Published: March 2003

Though others have surveyed the different methods in comparative religious ethics, relatively little attention has been given to different approaches to pedagogy (exceptions include Lovin and Reynolds; Juergensmeyer; Twiss). The field of comparative religious ethics has now reached a level of maturity so that there are a variety of ways such courses can be taught. In this review I consider the approaches to comparative religious ethics found in four recent texts by Jacob Neusner, Darrell Fasching and Dell deChant, Regina Wolfe and Christine Gudorf, and Sumner Twiss and Bruce Grelle. In the essay I note the strengths and weaknesses of each text, with special attention given to how the texts might work in the classroom. I then argue that the different texts reflect different understandings of the goal of teaching comparative religious ethics, and I make these goals explicit in order to help teachers decide how they might approach the teaching in this growing field.
“Unworthy Servants”: The Rhetoric of Resignation at Canterbury, 1070–1170
Authors: Ruud Marylou
Published: March 2003

Medieval attempts to resign episcopal office hold many complexities: legal issues, religious ramifications, and the personal motivations behind such acts. Taken at face value, appeals to resign appear direct and explicit; bishops desire release from an office they feel unworthy to hold, or in which they feel they have accomplished little. On closer scrutiny, however, many of these texts reveal purposes quite apart from resignation. Indeed, the attempts of three archbishops of Canterbury to resign office in the eleventh and twelfth centuries reveal strikingly similar rhetorical devices that indicate less a desire to leave office than to bolster the archbishops’ spiritual authority. The requests of Lanfranc, Anselm, and Thomas Becket employ language designed to reinforce episcopal centrality at times when kings and even popes dis‐regarded its importance, at least in the eyes of these archbishops. Despite the differ‐ing circumstances that gave rise to each appeal for resignation, the stylized discourse in all of them suggests a need to make specific points that would rouse support for or bolster the perception of the requestor’s episcopal status. All three archbishops, as well as their chroniclers or biographers, saw issues of Canterbury’s leadership in the spiritual life of England at stake, and resignation became the means to pro‐mote and advance the episcopal cause. By bringing repeated phrases of unworthiness or lack of accomplishment into their appeals for resignation, each man sought a response that would reassure him of his worthiness and ability to lead Canterbury.
Metacognition of young readers in an early intervention programme
Authors: Juliebö Moira , Malicky Grace , Norman Charles
Published: March 2003

This qualitative study was designed to investigate the metacognitive behaviour displayed by young children during their involvement in a reading intervention program, using videotapes of both intervention sessions and stimulated recall to access metacognition. The children demonstrated a wide range of metacognitive behaviour consistent with models of metacognition for older children proposed by researchers such as Flavell (1979) and Paris (Cross and Paris, 1988). Most metacognitive responses during intervention sessions involved self‐regulation whereas responses during stimulated recall tended to reflect metacognitive awareness of reading strategies. Results support the need to use multiple measures of metacognition with young children as well as the need for further research on the relationship between metacognition and reading achievement of children in reading intervention programmes.
Linguistic and cultural factors in the readability of mathematics texts: the Whorfian hypothesis revisited with evidence from the South African context
Authors: Prins Elise , Ulijn Jan
Published: March 2003

South Africa is a country of many languages and cultures. Education is mostly in English which implies that about 80% of all secondary school students are second language learners. Currently many mathematical problems are posed in real‐life contexts. This not only introduces more language in mathematics texts, but also more issues related to culture. When considering the influence on readability, it is difficult to disentangle the role of linguistic and cultural factors and this in turn seems to be a manifestation of the Sapir‐Whorf hypothesis. The study was therefore guided by research questions such as: what linguistic and cultural factors in the ordinary language of mathematics texts influence readability? Protocol analysis was used with students aged 17–18 years to establish readability problems. Linguistic as well as cultural factors were identified and the hypothesis that improved readability of mathematics assignments improves achievement was confirmed in a number of cases. Writers of mathematics texts should therefore consider linguistic as well as cultural factors when writing for different reading audiences. Other conclusions address teaching and examination practice.
One Hundred Children: baseline assessment of literacy in the early years of education
Authors: Louden William , Hunter Janet
Published: March 2003

One Hundred Children is an Australian study of literacy learning in the early years of education. The larger study (Hill, Comber, Louden, Reid and Rivalland, 1998) includes detailed case studies of children’s literacy learning in their homes, pre‐schools, day‐care centres and schools. This paper reports on the assessment framework developed during the study and provides a brief overview of children’s performance on items in that framework. The study demonstrates that most children made rapid and substantial progress in literacy learning and identifies the literacy domains in which children learned most during their first year at school. A number of advantages of the use of baseline measures for assessing young children’s progress in literacy are also highlighted.
At‐risk readers developing expertise in register switching: evidence from cohesion analysis
Authors: Fang Zhihui , Cox Beverly E.
Published: March 2003

Register refers to the variety of language that is appropriate for a particular situational context. This study examines young children’s development of register switching expertise as they become independent readers. Participants were 17 first graders identified by their classroom teachers as at‐risk readers and admitted into an early literacy intervention program called Reading Recovery. At both the beginning and end of Reading Recovery, each child was asked to share a story about a personally relevant topic in a face‐to‐face, conversational context and then dictate that same oral tale as an autonomous/written text intended for a reader audience. The 68 texts (34 oral and 34 written) were analysed for their use of register‐appropriate cohesive linguistic choices. It was found that as these at‐risk children grew from emergent to independent, strategic readers, they were concurrently developing skills in constructing written register texts by recontextualising the cohesion language patterns in their oral register texts. It is suggested that developing expertise in register switching may compose part of the process of learning to read and write. This finding is discussed in the light of relevant literacy and educational research.
Emergent storybook reading revisited (Research Note)
Authors: Anderson Jim , Matthews Rose
Published: March 2003

Fifteen children from working‐class homes attending two kindergarten classes in one school in a small town in Canada were asked to select their favourite book in October and June to read to a researcher. The storybook re‐enactments were tape recorded and transcribed, and then coded according to a developmental scheme developed by Sulzby (1985) and Barnhart (1991). The results were compared with the results of Sulzby’s (1985) study with 24 children from middle‐class homes. The mean score of the children in the Sulzby study was found to be significantly higher in October than the mean score of the children in the present study. Furthermore, the difference between the mean scores of the two groups had increased significantly by June. Further analysis revealed that the children in the present study did not show the same developmental progression as the children in the Sulzby study and, in fact, 11 of the 15 children did not progress at all along the developmental continuum. The results are discussed in relation to concepts of emergent literacy and socio‐economic factors in early reading development.
A Dutch comprehension test for identifying reading problems in L1 and L2 students (Research Note)
Authors: Hacquebord Hilde
Published: March 2003

The Dutch Text Comprehension Test was developed in order to help improve the education of minority students in the Netherlands. As it appeared that many second language (L2) readers have more difficulties with respect to the micro‐processing of words and sentences while compensating on the macro level, there was a need for an instrument with diagnostic value so as to yield clues for further remedial teaching. The test proved reliable for both L1 students and L2 students. The test, with regard to diagnosing the type of reading problem, was validated by carrying out further observations by video. Although the classification results were not optimal, the test can be used for diagnostic purposes provided that there is a relatively large difference between sub‐test scores on the micro and the macro levels.

The results of a screening survey show that there are great differences in percentages of weak readers and distribution of reader types among the different secondary school types in the Netherlands. Unlike weak readers who attend the higher school types, weak readers at the lower educational school types – among them many L2 readers – are ‘problem readers’ who do not compensate for their lack of word knowledge and sentence processing and who do not appear to be efficient ‘bottom‐up readers.’ Secondary schools are therefore encouraged to screen their first year students in order to gain insight into the problems that weaker readers – including L2 readers – may have, and to develop remedial teaching programmes tailored to the different needs of L1 and L2 students.
Computer‐based cognitive assessment and the development of reading
Authors: Singleton Chris , Thomas Kevin , Horne Joanna
Published: March 2003

This paper reports on a longitudinal study using the computer‐based cognitive assessment system CoPS, and considers the applicability of this system in the early identification of cognitive strengths and limitations that affect the development of reading. CoPS comprises eight tests of basic cognitive abilities, including phonological awareness, auditory discrimination, and short‐term visual and auditory‐verbal memory. A total of 421 children participated in the study. Assessment with the CoPS tests was carried out at age 5 years, and follow‐up assessments using conventional tests of reading and general ability were carried out at 6 and 8 years of age.

Correlations between the CoPS tests administered at age 5 and reading ability at age 8 were in the region of 0.6 for auditory‐verbal memory and phonological awareness, and in the region of 0.3 for the CoPS measure of auditory discrimination as well as most of the other memory measures. Stepwise linear regression analyses showed that the CoPS tests of auditory‐verbal memory and phonological awareness administered at age 5 together accounted for 50% of the variance in reading ability at age 8, compared with only 29% of the variance being attributable to intelligence. It was concluded that short‐term memory is an important predictor variable for reading, in addition to the more generally acknowledged variable of phonological processing.

Discriminant function analysis showed that CoPS tests provide a highly satisfactory prediction of poor reading skills, with very low or zero rates for false positives and false negatives. By contrast, a word recognition test given at age 6 was not found to predict reading at age 8 to the same degree of accuracy, resulting in an unsatisfactory false positive rate of 21%. Measures of verbal and nonverbal ability at age 6 produced unacceptably high false positive rates between 50% and 70%. These findings are discussed in relation to the prediction of children at risk of reading failure. The potential of computer‐based cognitive profiling for facilitating differentiated teaching in early reading is also considered.
Literacy by Design, not by default: social capital’s role in literacy learning
Authors: Falk Ian
Published: March 2003

This paper argues the significance of social capital in the literacy learning process and discusses the roles and effects of various elements of social capital, such as networks and trust. An illustrative case study shows how the knowledge and identity resources drawn on during learning interactions rely as much for their success on identity‐shifting as they do on skills and knowledge. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications for learning and education, especially literacy education.
Reading in a root–based–morphology language: the case of Arabic
Authors: Abu–Rabia S.
Published: March 2003

The reading process in Arabic as a function of vowels and sentence context is reviewed. Reading accuracy and reading comprehension results are reviewed in the light of cross–cultural reading, in order to develop a more comprehensive reading theory. Phonology, morphology and sentence context are considered key variables in explaining the reading process in Arabic orthography. Phonology (in the form of short vowels) affects reading accuracy as well as reading comprehension, regardless of reading level, age, material and reading conditions. Initial visual–orthographic processing identifies the morphology (i.e. the triliteral/quadriliteral roots of Arabic words) which then enables access to the mental lexicon. Sentence context is also essential in reading Arabic orthography regardless of the reader’s level, age, material and reading condition. The phonology, morphology and sentence context of Arabic are presented in two suggested reading models for poor/beginner Arabic readers and for skilled Arabic readers.
A Comparison of Statistical Methods for Age-related Reference Intervals
Authors: Wright Eileen M. , Royston Patrick
Published: March 2003

Age-specific reference intervals are commonly used in the routine monitoring of individuals, where interest lies in the detection of extreme values, possibly indicating abnormality. Here, a review is given of the wide range of statistical techniques which have been proposed for the construction of these intervals and issues such as the estimation of confidence bands and goodness of fit are discussed. Three methods, thought to be the most widely applied approaches, are considered in more detail. Comparisons are made on the basis of reference interval estimation for three real data sets.
The Statistics of the National Lottery
Authors: Haigh John
Published: March 2003

Some methods to test the randomness of the numbers drawn in the UK National Lottery are described. The data for the first 96 draws are consistent with the numbers being drawn at random, both in terms of the individual frequencies and of the waiting times for successive appearances. The number combinations chosen by gamblers are shown to be far from random, as a whole: data from the UK and other countries demonstrate that certain combinations are much more popular than average, and thus the skill to identify unpopular combinations can increase the mean return. Families of models of gambler choice are described, but, despite some encouraging indications, they all have significant deficiencies.
Simple Methods for Ecological Inference in 2×2 Tables
Authors: Chambers R. L. , Steel D. G.
Published: March 2003

This paper considers inference about the individual level relationship between two dichotomous variables based on aggregated data. It is known that such analyses suffer from ‘ecological bias’, caused by the lack of homogeneity of this relationship across the groups over which the aggregation occurs. Two new methods for overcoming this bias, one based on local smoothing and the other a simple semiparametric approach, are developed and evaluated. The local smoothing approach performs best when it is used with a covariate which accounts for some of the variation in the relationships across groups. The semiparametric approach performed well in our evaluation even without such auxiliary information
Estimation of a Large Cross-Classified Multilevel Model to Study Academic Achievement in a Modular Degree Course
Authors: Simonite V. , Browne W. J.
Published: March 2003

Modular programmes are now the most popular framework for first-degree courses in the UK. Within a modular degree course, each student's programme consists of a number of modules taken in each term or semester. Detailed records of undergraduates’ performance are maintained throughout their programmes, allowing patterns of achievement to be studied. The data contained in students’ transcripts have a cross-classified structure, in which the marks recorded in each module entry are nested within students and also within modules. Models for cross-classified data can be computationally difficult, especially when large numbers of units are involved, but estimates can be obtained by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. In the context of modular higher education, it is important that such models can represent the effects of students’ backgrounds, and of the learning environments provided in each module on students’ mean levels of achievement and on variation at different levels of the model. This paper discusses models that are suitable for analysing student transcript data from a modular degree programme and describes an algorithm for fitting a cross-classified model that includes random effects and complex or heterogeneous variance functions. The results of applying this model to student transcript data for a first-degree course are used to demonstrate the importance of employing a cross-classified model and the value, in substantive terms, of the information that is obtained.
Modelling Political Popularity: A Correction
Authors: Byers David , Davidson James , Peel David
Published: March 2003

The paper supplies a missing step in the aggregation argument that was used in our 1997 paper in this journal. We show that monthly poll data representing the average of a sample of voter preferences, evolving in different ways in the face of new information, should follow a fractionally integrated process.
Statistical Studies of Infectious Disease Incidence
Authors: Becker N. G. , Britton T.
Published: March 2003

Methods for the analysis of data on the incidence of an infectious disease are reviewed, with an emphasis on important objectives that such analyses should address and identifying areas where further work is required. Recent statistical work has adapted methods for constructing estimating functions from martingale theory, methods of data augmentation and methods developed for studying the human immunodeficiency virus–acquired immune deficiency syndrome epidemic. Infectious disease data seem particularly suited to analysis by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Epidemic modellers have recently made substantial progress in allowing for community structure and heterogeneity among individuals when studying the requirements for preventing major epidemics. This has stimulated interest in making statistical inferences about crucial parameters from infectious disease data for such community settings.
Discrete Approximations to Continuous Univariate Distributions—an Alternative to Simulation
Authors: Luceño A.
Published: March 2003

A method to replace a continuous univariate distribution with a discrete distribution that takes MN different values is analysed. Both distributions share the same rth moments for r=0, . . ., 2N−1 and their corresonding distribution functions coincide at least at M+1 points. Several statistical and engineering examples are considered in which the discrete approximation may be used to avoid a simulation study that would be much more demanding computationally.
An Analysis of Swendsen–Wang and Related Sampling Methods
Authors: Fishman George S.
Published: March 2003

Convergence rates, statistical efficiency and sampling costs are studied for the original and extended Swendsen–Wang methods of generating a sample path {S  j, j≥1} with equilibrium distribution π, with r distinct elements, on a finite state space X of size N  1. Given S  j-1, each method uses auxiliary random variables to identify the subset of X from which S  j is to be randomly sampled. Let πmin and πmax denote respectively the smallest and largest elements in π and let Nr denote the number of elements in π with value πmax. For a single auxiliary variable, uniform sampling from the subset and (N  1−Nr)πmin+Nrπmax≈1, our results show rapid convergence and high statistical efficiency for large πmin/πmax  or  Nr/N  1 and slow convergence and poor statistical efficiency for small πmin/πmax  and  Nr/N1. Other examples provide additional insight. For extended Swendsen–Wang methods with non-uniform subset sampling, the analysis identifies the properties of a decomposition of π(x) that favour fast convergence and high statistical efficiency. In the absence of exploitable special structure, subset sampling can be costly regardless of which of these methods is employed.
Adaptive Weights Smoothing with Applications to Image Restoration
Authors: Polzehl Jöorg , Spokoiny V. G.
Published: March 2003

We propose a new method of nonparametric estimation which is based on locally constant smoothing with an adaptive choice of weights for every pair of data points. Some theoretical properties of the procedure are investigated. Then we demonstrate the performance of the method on some simulated univariate and bivariate examples and compare it with other nonparametric methods. Finally we discuss applications of this procedure to magnetic resonance and satellite imaging.
Median Treatment Effect in Randomized Trials
Authors: Lee Myoung-jae
Published: March 2003

For two response variables y  t and y  c corresponding to two treatments for two policies) T and C, we wish to learn about quantiles of y  t−y  c from the marginal quantiles of y  t and y  c; only one of y  t and y  c is observed for an individual. We find that, in general, this is difficult for quantiles other than the median unless strong assumptions are imposed on how y  t is related to y  c. For the median, we present conditions under which the sign of the median treatment effect is identified.
A Modified Likelihood Ratio Test for Homogeneity in Finite Mixture Models
Authors: Chen Hanfeng , Chen Jiahua , Kalbfleisch John D.
Published: March 2003

Testing for homogeneity in finite mixture models has been investigated by many researchers. The asymptotic null distribution of the likelihood ratio test (LRT) is very complex and difficult to use in practice. We propose a modified LRT for homogeneity in finite mixture models with a general parametric kernel distribution family. The modified LRT has a χ-type of null limiting distribution and is asymptotically most powerful under local alternatives. Simulations show that it performs better than competing tests. They also reveal that the limiting distribution with some adjustment can satisfactorily approximate the quantiles of the test statistic, even for moderate sample sizes.
A Penalized Likelihood Approach to Image Warping
Authors: Glasbey C. A. , Mardia K. V.
Published: March 2003

A warping is a function that deforms images by mapping between image domains. The choice of function is formulated statistically as maximum penalized likelihood, where the likelihood measures the similarity between images after warping and the penalty is a measure of distortion of a warping. The paper addresses two issues simultaneously, of how to choose the warping function and how to assess the alignment. A new, Fourier–von Mises image model is identified, with phase differences between Fourier-transformed images having von Mises distributions. Also, new, null set distortion criteria are proposed, with each criterion uniquely minimized by a particular set of polynomial functions. A conjugate gradient algorithm is used to estimate the warping function, which is numerically approximated by a piecewise bilinear function. The method is motivated by, and used to solve, three applied problems: to register a remotely sensed image with a map, to align microscope images obtained by using different optics and to discriminate between species of fish from photographic images.
Parametric Models for Response-Biased Sampling
Authors: Chen Kani
Published: March 2003

Suppose that subjects in a population follow the model f(y*|x*;θ) where y* denotes a response, x* denotes a vector of covariates and θ is the parameter to be estimated. We consider response-biased sampling, in which a subject is observed with a probability which is a function of its response. Such response-biased sampling frequently occurs in econometrics, epidemiology and survey sampling. The semiparametric maximum likelihood estimate of θ is derived, along with its asymptotic normality, efficiency and variance estimates. The estimate proposed can be used as a maximum partial likelihood estimate in stratified response-selective sampling. Some computation algorithms are also provided.