Association Between Cancer Incidence and Mortality in Web-Based Data in China: Infodemiology Study (Preprint)
Authors: Xu Chenjie , Wang Yi , Yang Hongxi , Hou Jie , Sun Li , Zhang Xinyu , Cao Xinxi , Hou Yabing , Wang Lan , Cai Qiliang , Wang Yaogang 
Published: May 2018

BACKGROUND

Cancer poses a serious threat to the health of Chinese people, resulting in a major challenge for public health work. Today, people can obtain relevant information from not only medical workers in hospitals, but also the internet in any place in real-time. Search behaviors can reflect a population’s awareness of cancer from a completely new perspective, which could be driven by the underlying cancer epidemiology. However, such Web-retrieved data are not yet well validated or understood.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to explore whether a correlation exists between the incidence and mortality of cancers and normalized internet search volumes on the big data platform, Baidu. We also assessed whether the distribution of people who searched for specific types of cancer differed by gender. Finally, we determined whether there were regional disparities among people who searched the Web for cancer-related information.

METHODS

Standard Boolean operators were used to choose search terms for each type of cancer. Spearman’s correlation analysis was used to explore correlations among monthly search index values for each cancer type and their monthly incidence and mortality rates. We conducted cointegration analysis between search index data and incidence rates to examine whether a stable equilibrium existed between them. We also conducted cointegration analysis between search index data and mortality data.

RESULTS

The monthly Baidu index was significantly correlated with cancer incidence rates for 26 of 28 cancers in China (lung cancer: r=.80, P<.001; liver cancer: r=.28, P=.016; stomach cancer: r=.50, P<.001; esophageal cancer: r=.50, P<.001; colorectal cancer: r=.81, P<.001; pancreatic cancer: r=.86, P<.001; breast cancer: r=.56, P<.001; brain and nervous system cancer: r=.63, P<.001; leukemia: r=.75, P<.001; Non-Hodgkin lymphoma: r=.88, P<.001; Hodgkin lymphoma: r=.91, P<.001; cervical cancer: r=.64, P<.001; prostate cancer: r=.67, P<.001; bladder cancer: r=.62, P<.001; gallbladder and biliary tract cancer: r=.88, P<.001; lip and oral cavity cancer: r=.88, P<.001; ovarian cancer: r=.58, P<.001; larynx cancer: r=.82, P<.001; kidney cancer: r=.73, P<.001; squamous cell carcinoma: r=.94, P<.001; multiple myeloma: r=.84, P<.001; thyroid cancer: r=.77, P<.001; malignant skin melanoma: r=.55, P<.001; mesothelioma: r=.79, P<.001; testicular cancer: r=.57, P<.001; basal cell carcinoma: r=.83, P<.001). The monthly Baidu index was significantly correlated with cancer mortality rates for 24 of 27 cancers. In terms of the whole population, the number of women who searched for cancer-related information has slowly risen over time. People aged 30-39 years were most likely to use search engines to retrieve cancer-related knowledge. East China had the highest Web search volumes for cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Search behaviors indeed reflect public awareness of cancer from a different angle. Research on internet search behaviors could present an innovative and timely way to monitor and estimate cancer incidence and mortality rates, especially for cancers not included in national registries.