bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Combined influence of solar activity and internal climate modes on long-term hydro-climatic variability in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau
Authors: Zhang Zhixin , Zhang Lin , Liu Yanfeng , Jin Menggui
Published: March 2022

Solar activity and internal climate modes (e.g., ENSO and PDO) have significant effects on extreme climate events and streamflow variability. As the roof of the world and the water tower of Asia, the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) is highly sensitive to climate change. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the relationship between extreme hydrometeorological events of the QTP and climate change for global hydroclimate research. In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation and significant oscillation period of several hydrometeorological variables such as extreme precipitation indices (EPIs), extreme temperature indices (ETIs) and annual runoff based on the observation data of hydrometeorological stations in the QTP during 1962–2019 using Sen’s slope estimator, Mann-Kendall test and continuous wavelet analysis (CWT). And the teleconnection patterns and the leading–lag relationship between solar activity, internal climate modes and these hydrometeorological variables were evaluated using wavelet coherence (WTC). The result showed that QTP has been wetter and warmer in the past 58 years. The EPIs mostly mutated around 2010, and the increase was more pronounced after that; while the ETIs mainly mutated in the late 20th century. In terms of spatial distribution, the EPIs (except consecutive dry days) decreased from southeast to northwest; while distribution of ETIs was much more complicated. The extreme warm and cold indices showed a significant increasing and decreasing trend, respectively. The annual runoff of natural rivers in the QTP showed an increasing trend, and suddenly changed around 2000. EPIs had significant periodicities at 2–4-year band and 4–7-year band, while the significant periodicity of ETIs was mainly concentrated in the 2–4-year band. In addition, the annual runoff of natural rivers had significant periodicities in the bands of 2-4 years, 4-7 years and 7-11 years. Hydrometeorological variables had higher correlations with EI Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) than with sunspot number (SSN). Solar activity first affects internal climate variability and then sequentially transfers this influence to meteorological and hydrological variables. This study has important implications for water resources management, flood control, climate feedback, ecosystem restoration, and the well-being of surrounding residents and sustainable development at the QTP.

Keywords: climate change; extreme climate events; runoff; Qinghai-Tibet Plateau; spatiotemporal variability; wavelet analysis
Updated assessment suggests >1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points
Authors: Armstrong McKay David , Staal Arie , Abrams Jesse , Winkelmann Ricarda , Sakschewski Boris , Loriani Sina , Fetzer Ingo , Cornell Sarah , Rockström Johan , Lenton Timothy
Published: March 2022

Climate tipping points occur when change in a part of the climate system becomes self-perpetuating beyond a forcing threshold, leading to abrupt and/or irreversible impacts. Synthesizing paleoclimate, observational, and model-based studies, we provide a revised shortlist of global ‘core’ tipping elements and regional ‘impact’ tipping elements and their temperature thresholds. Current global warming of ~1.1°C above pre-industrial already lies within the lower end of some tipping point uncertainty ranges. Several more tipping points may be triggered in the Paris Agreement range of 1.5-2°C global warming, with many more likely at the 2-3°C of warming expected on current policy trajectories. In further work we use these estimates to test the potential for and impact of tipping cascades in response to global warming scenarios using a stylised model. This strengthens the evidence base for urgent action to mitigate climate change and to develop improved tipping point risk assessment, early warning capability, and adaptation strategies.

Preprint: https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10509769.1
Improving rainfall monitoring using commercial microwave link data in Burkina Faso: Results from three years of processing
Authors: Djibo Moumouni , Chwala Christian , Doumounia Ali , Polz Julius , Graf Maximilian , Ouédraogo Wend Yam Serge Boris , Sanou Serge Roland , Sawadogo Moumouni , Guira Idrissa , Kunstmann Harald , Zougmoré François
Published: March 2022

Commercial Microwave Link (CML) data can provide important rainfall information, in particular in regions with low density of rain gauges and with no radar coverage. We have set up and operate a CML data acquisition (DAQ) system for Burkina Faso and report on the first larger scale analysis of the derived rainfall information.

Our real-time DAQ system started as a pilot project covering only eight CMLs and was gradually extended. For the monsoon season 2020 and 2021 it collected data for more than 1000 CMLs in Burkina Faso with a temporal resolution of one minute. Our first analysis is focusing on the 300 CMLs which operate in the frequency range between 11 GHz and 13 GHz in and around the city of Ouagadougou, the capital of Burkina Faso. We carry out a comparison with official daily rain gauge data, both for individual CMLs as well as for CML-derived rainfall maps. Our results for the period of the 2019, 2020 and 2021 rainy season indicate good performance of the CML rainfall information, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.8 and higher. 

The processing of the longer CMLs in the frequency range between 7 GHz and 9 GHz, which connect the urban centers in Burkina Faso, currently is in progress. To tackle the challenge of noisy dry periods we are investigating the use of cloud cover and cloud type information from MSG SEVIRI data.
Simulation of thermal conditions in Augsburg, Southern Germany, using PALM-4U
Authors: Straub Annette , Beck Christoph , Philipp Andreas
Published: March 2022

Within the scope of the research project “Strategies for Reduction of Critical Urban Climate Load Situations in Augsburg” (MIKA), which is part of the research programme "Urban Climate Under Change” [UC2], the LES model PALM-4U is applied in the medium-sized city of Augsburg, Southern Germany. As a first aim of the project, simulations with focus on air temperature have been performed. The simulations cover a large part of the city and its surroundings (approx. 8x6 km), and two areas of special interest are resolved in more detail. Meteorological boundary conditions are provided by the COSMO-D2 model. Two different summer days have been selected for the simulations. One day has anticyclonic conditions, is part of a heat wave and, thus, thermal stress is expected in the city. The other day, which serves as a reference day, has moderate temperatures and more mixed conditions than the day with heat stress. Furthermore, it is part of an intense observation period (IOP), which means that vertical profiles of air temperature and humidity have been measured at different sites in the city each hour with unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) accompanied by mobile measurements with a bicycle. This is favourable for evaluating the model results.

This contribution presents some first results of the evaluation and comparison of these two PALM-4U simulations.
The Copernicus Marine Service ocean forecasting system for the Mediterranean Sea: 2015-2021 achievements and future perspectives
Authors: Coppini Giovanni , Clementi Emanuela , Cossarini Gianpiero , Korres Gerasimos , Drudi Massimiliano , Aydogdu Ali , Bolzon Giorgio , Escudier Romain , Feudale Laura , Goglio Anna Chiara , Grandi Alessandro , Lazzari Paolo , Lecci Rita , Masina Simona , Pinardi Nadia , Pistoia Jenny , Salon Stefano , Ravdas Michael , Teruzzi Anna , Zacharioudaki Anna
Published: March 2022

The Copernicus Marine Service (CMEMS) Mediterranean Monitoring and Forecasting Center (MED-MFC) adopts state of the art knowledge in scientific modeling development to operationally produce Near Real Time (NRT) and Multi-year products (MYP) for the Mediterranean Sea dynamics, from currents to waves, and biogeochemistry since 2015.

The modelling systems are based on community models (NEMO, WAM and BFM), and assimilate observational In-situ and satellite CMEMS data.

During the last 6 years, the MED-MFC systems have been substantially improved with regard to: increased resolution, improved physical, biogeochemical and wave representations thanks to modelling and data assimilation upgrades. All the systems are aligned in terms of grid resolution (1/24o), bathymetry and share the same atmospheric and river forcing fields, moreover the wave and biogeochemical systems are forced by the MED-MFC physical fields.

The consortium also assured a continuous improvement of the accuracy of the products and their quality is continuously monitored by means of comparison with respect to available insitu and satellite observations.

The focus of this work is to present the integrated MED-MFC modelling systems and the available products, their innovative skill assessment, their evolutions during the 1st phase of Copernicus including major recent scientific achievements.  An overview of the future upgrades for the period 2022-2024 are also presented.
How megacities respond to urban pluvial floods in China: Policy recommendations
Authors: Liu Mingyang , Xu Xiangzhou , Ran Guang
Published: March 2022

The megacities in China experienced increasing impacts from the urban floods due to the climate change in the past ten years. However, it is still unknown how to deal with the potential hazards under the impact of extreme precipitation. This paper briefly reviews the general characteristics and challenges of urban flooding in China with a case study of the extreme rainstorm in Zhengzhou on 20 July 2021. Results indicate that, to comprehensively protect a megacity with existing building standards and emergency plans is difficult under the extreme rainstorms, and the disruption of weak lifeline facilities, e.g. the road network, may further disrupt the provisions from neighbouring cities. This study offers a unique perspective reflecting a multi-scale approach from a single local city to regional area, an urban cluster or even a country on the urban floods control, urban infrastructure design and policy development. In more details, the measures are anticipated to increase the control rate of annual rainfall via the development of sponge city, improve monitoring and forecasting in the urban area, and enhance the risk-response strategies from the local government. The study strongly suggests expand the experiences and achievements of the flood management from a disaster area to adjacent or distant cities coupled with different pathways including government cooperation, water conservation practices, information exchange or human migration. The policymakers in a megacity are also encouraged to update the viewpoints for the policies and strategies to control floods. Hopefully a clue for relatively effective water management and land use for the sustainable urban development may be obtained from the study.
A first order assessment of long-term sea-level rise impacts beyond 2100 and the global and regional urgency for adaptation 
Authors: Winter Gundula , Haasnoot Marjolijn , Brown Sally , Dawson Richard , Ward Philip , Eilander Dirk
Published: March 2022

Adaptation to sea-level rise (SLR) will be necessary to protect people at risk from flooding due to a combination of tide, surge and SLR in the future. This adaptation commitment requires adequate time and resources to prepare for the impacts of SLR that are expected within this century and beyond (here until 2150). In this study, we address the question of “when” in addition to “how much” adaptation to SLR is needed. We use a scenario-neutral approach to assess the amount of people at risk from flooding under different SLR magnitudes. We combine this scenario neutral approach with SLR projections for the SSPs in AR6 and population growth scenarios in the coastal zone to identify the timing, in which the number of additional people affected by SLR alone or in combination with a 100-year storm event will exceed a set of thresholds. The comparison of the timing for different SSPs demonstrates that it is rather a question of “when” than “if” these thresholds will be exceeded. Some countries will need to adapt to SLR within the next few decades to prevent an additional 1–5 million people from becoming affected by flooding. Other countries have more time for adaption but will face a rapid increase in the number of people at risk from flooding beyond 2100. Combining SLR impacts with projected population change further increases the number of people at risk in the middle of this century for most SSPs. Considering low-confidence high-end SLR scenarios that include the possibility for a more rapid melting of the ice sheets may shift expected impacts approximately 50 years forward. This means that adaptation needs to be implemented faster and sooner than previously anticipated, which may have consequences for the available adaptation options. Ignoring the potential and long-term (including beyond 2100) commitment for adaptation may lead to an adaptation gap and subsequently expensive retrofitting of infrastructure, creation of stranded assets, and less time to adapt at greater cost. In contrast, acknowledging and acting upon the long-term adaptation commitment can encourage timely adaptation and its alignment with other societal ambitions.
Comparison of Feed-in Data for European Energy System Modelling
Authors: Kies Alexander , Schyska Bruno , Jurasz Jakub
Published: March 2022

The world  is shifting towards renewable energy to tackle the imminent threat of climate change.

To plan the decarbonisation, large-scale energy system models are utilized, which require accurate data on renewable generation to develop their full potential. Using different data can lead to conflicting results and policy advice.

In this work, we compare several reanalysis-based datasets, which provide generation data for wind and solar PV on the country level,to study the transition towards a highly renewable European power system. Significant differences between these datasets are found, resulting in remarkable cost differences and the potential misallocation of large investments.

The findings, which will be presented, indicate that much more attention must be paid to the large uncertainties of the input data in two ways: Understanding the differences and developing appropriate methods to deal with them.
Identification of the leading role of pore structure in determining recovery during low salinity water flooding 
Authors: Andrews Edward , Jones Alistair , Muggeridge Ann , Krevor Samuel
Published: March 2022

Low salinity water flooding is a promising enhanced oil recovery technique that has been observed, in experiments over a range of scales, to increase oil production by up to 14% in some systems. However, there is still no way of reliably predicting which systems will respond favourably to the technique. This shortcoming is partly because of a relative lack of pore scale observations of low salinity water flooding. This has led to a poor understanding of how mechanisms on the scale of micrometres lead to changes in fluid distribution on the scale of centimetres to reservoir scales. In this work, we present the first systematic comparison of the pore scale response to low salinity flooding across multiple sandstone samples. We use X-ray micro-CT scanning to image unsteady state experiments of tertiary low salinity water flooding in Berea, Castlegate, and Bunter sandstone micro-cores. We observe fluid saturations and characterise the wetting state of samples using imagery of fluid-solid fractional wetting and pore occupancy analysis. In the Berea sample, we observed an additional oil recovery of 3 percentage points during low salinity water flooding, with large volumes of oil displaced from small pores but also re-trapping of mobilised oil in large pores. In the Bunter sandstone, we observed 4 percentage point additional recovery with significant displacement of oil from small pores and no significant retrapping of oil in large pores. However, in the Castlegate sample, we observed just 1 percentage point of additional recovery and relatively small volumes of oil mobilisation. We observe a significant wettability alteration towards more water-wet conditions in the Berea and Bunter sandstones, but no significant alteration in the Castlegate sample. We hypothesise that the pore structure, specifically the connectivity of the largest pores in each sample, significantly affected production. This work gives the first pore scale insights into the role of pore geometry and topology on the mobilisation and retrapping of oil during low salinity water flooding.   
Global Maps of Aerosol Single Scattering Albedo Using Combined CERES-MODIS Retrievals
Authors: Devi Archana , Satheesh Sreedharan K
Published: March 2022

Aerosol absorption is an important parameter for assessing the climatic impact of aerosols. In this study, we present a multi-sensor algorithm to generate global maps of single scattering albedo (SSA) 550 nm using the concept of 'critical optical depth.' Global maps of SSA were generated following this approach using spatially and temporally collocated data from Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors on board Terra and Aqua satellites. Limited comparisons against airborne observations over India and surrounding oceans were generally in agreement within ±0.03. Global mean SSA estimated over land and ocean is 0.93 and 0.97, respectively. Seasonal and spatial distribution of SSA over various regions are also presented. The global maps of SSA, thus derived with improved accuracy, provide important input to climate models for assessing the climatic impact of aerosols on regional and global scales.
Structural reconstruction and Quaternary evolution of the buried thrust in the central Adriatic Sea (Italy).
Authors: Maesano Francesco Emanuele , Toscani Giovanni , Panara Yuri , Basili Roberto
Published: March 2022

Whenever sedimentation exceeds the tectonic rate, the detection and investigation of active faults become challenging, especially when the investigated area is offshore. The coastal area of the central Adriatic is characterized by the presence of Plio-Pleistocene thrusts, which strongly controlled the evolution of the Apennines foredeep. Apart from the significant exception of the Conero promontory, these thrusts are all blind and have no significant signature in the bathymetry. Nonetheless, the coastal and offshore central Adriatic has experienced some moderate-magnitude seismic sequences related to the frontal thrusts on either side, belonging to the Apennines and the Dinarides chains.

In the last years, multiple studies conducted along the Apennine orogeny assessed the Plio-Pleistocene slip rates using different approaches and methodologies. Fault plane dimensions and attitude are key parameters for seismotectonic information fed into seismic and tsunami hazard analyses. In this work, we present the interpretation of two regional seismic reflection profiles across the central Adriatic, calibrated with the available well-logs, which show the evolution of the thrust system in space and time and their influence on the development of the Apennines foredeep and help to put some constraints to understand the most recent tectonic history of the region.
Joint calibration and mapping of satellite altimetry data using trainable variaitional models
Authors: Febvre Quentin , Fablet Ronan , Le Sommer Julien , Ubelmann Clément
Published: March 2022

Satellite radar altimeters are a key source of observation of ocean surface dynamics. However, current sensor technology and mapping techniques do not yet allow to systematically resolve scales smaller than 100km. With their new sensors, upcoming wide-swath altimeter missions such as SWOT should help resolve finer scales. Current mapping techniques rely on the quality of the input data, which is why the raw data go through multiple preprocessing stages before being used. Those calibration stages are improved and refined over many years and represent a challenge when a new type of sensor start acquiring data.

We show how a data-driven variational data assimilation framework could be used to jointly learn a calibration operator and an interpolator from non-calibrated data . The proposed framework significantly outperforms the operational state-of-the-art mapping pipeline and truly benefits from wide-swath data to resolve finer scales on the global map as well as in the SWOT sensor geometry.

 
Estimating critical rainfall for flash flood warning using integrated hydrologic-hydrodynamic modelling
Authors: Papoulakos Konstantinos , Mitsopoulos George , Baltas Evangelos , Stamou Anastasios I.
Published: March 2022

Flash floods are one of the most severe natural hazards worldwide; they can occur within a few minutes or hours, and can move at very high flow velocities, striking with violence and little warning. Early warning of flash floods is extremely important for vital risk mitigation and requires the knowledge of the critical rainfall producing flooding that is typically considered as “warning index”. The small spatial and temporal scales at which flash floods occur make the prediction of critical rainfall challenging, particularly in data-poor environments, where high-resolution weather models and advanced monitoring networks may not be available.

In this paper that is based on the Master thesis performed by the first of the authors, we present a methodology to estimate the critical rainfall for flash flooding based on an integrated hydrologic-hydrodynamic model. The model is applied in the area of interest for various combinations of rainfall - soil moisture conditions to (1) determine input hydrographs that are used as boundary conditions for the hydrodynamic model, and (2) to calculate the distribution of the “critical hazard” in the cells of the 2D computational domain.  In the present work, we define critical hazard combining the main hydrodynamic characteristics that are water depth and flow velocity. We import all calculated “critical hazard” values into a GIS-based database.  We apply the integrated model in the town of Mandra in Greece, which was stricken by a flash flood on the 15th of November 2017 that was the third most disastrous “November” flood in Attica, for a relatively large number of scenarios-combinations of rainfall - soil moisture conditions to determine critical rainfall values and to compare them with values found in the literature from similar catchment areas.
Climate change-driven seasonal snow cover variations in Central Asia
Authors: Gafurov Abror , Kalashnikova Olga , Niyazov Djafar , Mamaraimov Adkham , Gafurov Akmal , Adkhamov Uktam
Published: March 2022

Snow is an important hydrological component in Central Asia. The snowmelt contributes to about 50 % of total water formation in the region, depending on geographic conditions. Many hydro-meteorological phenomena such as floods or drought conditions can be triggered by snowmelt amounts in Central Asia. The amount of snow accumulation in the mountains of Tian-Shan and Pamir also defines the availability of water for summer months to be used for agricultural production or re-filling of reservoirs for energy production in the winter period. Thus, it is of high importance to better understand the seasonal variation of snow and if the over the global average climate warming in the region is affecting the processes related to snow accumulation and melt.

In this study, we analyze 22 years of daily Moderate Resolution Imaging Radiometer (MODIS) snow cover data that was processed using the MODSNOW-Tool, including cloud elimination. Additionally, observed snow depth data from meteorological stations were used to estimate trends related to snow cover change. We used several parameters such as snow cover duration, snow depth, snow cover extent, and snowline elevation to analyze changes.  We conducted this analysis in 18 river basins across the Central Asian domain with each river basin having different geographic conditions and the results show varying tendencies. In many river basins, a clear decrease of snow cover was found to be significant, whereas in some river basins also increase in the snow cover extent in particular months could be identified. We attributed the changes related to snow cover to available historical temperature and precipitation records from meteorological stations to better understand the driving forces. The results of this study indicate seasonal snow cover variations but also potential water shortages in particular months as well as water abundance in months where water demand is not high in Central Asia. 
Global impacts of dams and reservoirs on hydrological droughts
Authors: Jonsson Elise , Lindersson Sara , Di Baldassarre Giuliano
Published: March 2022

Dams and reservoirs can have a wide range of impacts on local hydrology, for instance affecting soil moisture, water table, vegetation and modifying the frequency, severity and intensity of floods and droughts. In this work, we are quantifying trends in human-modified droughts (frequency, severity and intensity) in the wake of reservoir formation. Drought trends are compared before and after reservoir formation, using paired catchments for control.

 

We perform the analysis on a global level for large reservoirs, using satellite data of surface water changes and a dataset of georeferenced dams to determine the reservoir ages. We also include the impact of smaller reservoirs for a number of chosen case studies around the globe. The overarching goal of this research is to improve our understanding of the human impact on hydrological droughts across the world. Based on our results, we also discuss the potential impact of future dam constructions, particularly in developing countries where such developments are ramping up.
Magneto-biostratigraphic succession of the Jaca Basin (Southern Pyrenees, Spain): insights on the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum.
Authors: Oms Oriol , Blanchar Hug , Dinarès-Turell Jaume , Ibañez-Insa Jordi , Verdaguer Joaquim , González-Lanchas Alba , Gil-Delgado Alejandro , Flores José-Abel , Remacha Eduard
Published: March 2022

Magnetostratigraphy is a basic method to provide age constrains when trying to identify paleonvirmental changes in sedimentary successions. This is particularly important in the case of the Middle Eocene Climatic Optimum (MECO), which is a climatic perturbation not exactly coincident with a biostratigraphic boundary and having a peak Ca 40.2 Ma. We introduce the Jaca basin record (Southern Pyrenees) where expanded sedimentary successions record several Eocene climatic episodes. Combined magneto-biostratigraphic dating of these successions is carried out in the Hecho Group (deep clastic systems) and in its vertical successions to the Sabiñánigo and Belsué-Atarés deltaic systems.

New magnetostratigraphic data permit the identification of paleopolarities on the basis of stable demagnetization results from the marls of the deltaic successions. Counting of 32 species of calcareous nanoplankton for biostratigraphic purposes has permitted to identify several biozones throughout the basin. With respect to the MECO, the CNE14/15 biozones boundary has been clearly identified, which is close to c18r/c18n reversal.

A multiproxy study is carried out including mineralogical, elemental and isotopic data from X-ray diffraction, X-ray fluorescence and bulk rock C/O stable isotopes, with the aim to achieve a paleoenvironmental proxy permitting the identification of the MECO.  Ultimately, the integrated chronostratigraphic and multiproxy characterization of the studied sections will permit to understand how deltaic systems reacted the MECO climatic event.
Influence of dynamical changes on the tropical cloud feedback using extratropical forcing
Authors: Subbiah Renganathan Monisha Natchiar , Lambert Hugo , Vallis Geoffrey
Published: March 2022

The intermodel spread in the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) determined from GCM simulations has been majorly ascribed to the spread in the cloud feedback, wherein the multimodel-mean net cloud feedback is found to be positive. It was previously identified that the largest source of intermodel spread in the net cloud feedback comes from the low cloud amount (> 680 hPa) modelled by the GCMs (1). However, recent evidence points to the importance of understanding the processes contributing to the tropical high-cloud feedback in order to constrain the uncertainty in the total cloud feedback (2). One of the key challenges that remains is understanding the coupling between the clouds and the large-scale circulation. In this work, we focus on the subtropical low (stratocumulus) clouds and tropical high (anvil) clouds. We perform idealised GCM simulations using the Met Office Unified Model with different prescribed sea-surface temperature gradients in the tropics and extratropics that emulate the sea-surface temperature response to increases in atmospheric CO2. We also perform idealised simulations with an interactive slab ocean setup. Investigation of the influence of circulation changes on the tropical cloud feedback is done using a combination of simple mathematical frameworks. We then compare our GCM simulation results with those obtained using long-channel cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations. Our results corroborate previous results that indicate that the cloud feedback at the tropics-wide scale is dominated by the local thermodynamical changes than by dynamical changes. However, interestingly, we find a decrease in the tropical low cloud amount in some of the GCM simulations with a slab ocean setup. The processes causing the decrease in the low cloud amount and/or the robustness of this result remains to be investigated.

References:

Ceppi, P., Brient, F., Zelinka, M.D. and Hartmann, D.L., 2017. Cloud feedback mechanisms and their representation in global climate models. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 8(4), p.e465.

Sherwood, S.C., Webb, M.J., Annan, J.D., Armour, K.C., Forster, P.M., Hargreaves, J.C., Hegerl, G., Klein, S.A., Marvel, K.D., Rohling, E.J. and Watanabe, M., 2020. An assessment of Earth's climate sensitivity using multiple lines of evidence. Reviews of Geophysics, 58(4), p.e2019RG000678.

 
Assessment of ice clouds - aerosol interactions in global satellite observations
Authors: Sourdeval Odran , Gryspeerdt Edward , Krämer Martina , Quaas Johannes
Published: March 2022

Interactions between aerosols and clouds, as well as their radiative consequences, have been a long-standing problem to understand cloud physics as well as anthropogenic impacts on climate. Satellite-based investigations of the direct and indirect impact of aerosols on liquid clouds have led to significant progress in the understanding during the last decade. This is partly due to the emergence of adapted cloud properties provided by satellites, such as the droplet number concentration. Ice clouds have suffered from such adapted quantity for much longer, but solutions have recently been appearing.

This study investigates aerosol - ice clouds interactions using ice crystal number concentration (Ni) profiles from a lidar-radar dataset (DARDAR-Nice), used cojointly with with collocated aerosol information from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) reanalyses. A multitude of cloud regimes, subdivided into seasonal and regional bins, are considered in order to disentangle meteorological effects from the aci signature. First results of joint-histograms between Ni and the aerosol mass show an overall positive sensitivity of Ni to the aerosols load. This response is particularly strong towards to cloud-top and flattens towards cloud-base, consistently with expectations for homogeneous nucleation processes. The response of the ice water content, in terms of adjustment to the initial aerosol perturbation as also quantified.
Occurrence and Removal of Emerging Contaminants in Urban Stormwater Runoff
Authors: Teixidó Marc , Scheiber Laura , Cruz-Castillo Esther , Criollo Rotman , Montemurro Nicola , Labad Francesc , Pérez Sandra , Vázquez-Suñé Enric
Published: March 2022

Rising populations, exacerbated urbanization, and climate change pose uncertainties on our traditional urban drinking water supplies. Stormwater harvesting schemes could replenish over-drafted groundwater resources, augmenting urban water supplies. However, urban stormwater runoff carries a myriad of dissolved contaminants (e.g., organics, metals, nutrients), which impair receiving water bodies. Moreover, some organic contaminants of urban origin —particularly persistent contaminants of emerging concern (known as CECs), like pesticides, plasticizers, flame retardants, etc.— may not be adequately removed by conventional infiltration treatments.Thus, it is important to fully understand their fate, transport, and effect in the built environment, while designing novel ‒or upgrading conventional‒ treatment systems. First, we have conducted field sampling campaigns to investigate contaminant presence, transport, and source apportionment, during storm events. Preliminary results have confirmed presence of pharmaceuticals (and their corresponding metabolites), pesticides and flame retardants in urban rainwater. Regarding potential treatments prior discharge to both surface and groundwater bodies, we have investigated several passive treatments. To enhance the treatment performance of conventional media, herein we propose sustainable, low-cost and low-energy reactive geomedia. For instance, pyrogenic carbonaceous materials (e.g., biochar) can adsorb trace organic and metal contaminants. We have conducted preliminary laboratory-scale batch experiments to investigate their removal capacities. Our results showed that biochar displayed faster sorption kinetics (<24h) and capacity compared to the other studied materials. Sand, commonly used in infiltration schemes, showed almost no reactivity, highlighting the need to study alternative materials to retain organic and inorganic contaminants from stormwater runoff. 
Self Potential Monitoring of Saline Intrusion Dynamics in a Coastal Sand Aquifer
Authors: Butler Adrian , Rowan Thomas , Jackson Matthew , McDonnell Mark , Aguila Jesus Fernandez , Benner Eric , Flynn Raymond , Donohue Shane , Hamill Gerard
Published: March 2022

Greater groundwater abstraction combined with possible reductions in recharge rates are likely to be detrimental to the long-term viability of groundwater resources (Mehdizadeh, 2019). An additional issue specifically affecting coastal aquifers is saltwater intrusion (SI). The key processes governing SI have been long understood but monitoring the ingress of saline water into coastal aquifers and especially its risk to abstraction sources is still a complex and costly exercise (Graham, 2018). Here we build on evidence that self potential (SP) could be a useful tool for remotely tracking the movement of saline-freshwater interfaces associated with SI.  The work reported describes SP response, along with water level, temperature and electrical conductivity measurements from an array of piezometers under ambient and pumped conditions on a beach aquifer located on Benone Strand, on the northern tip of Northern Ireland, UK. These data are supplemented by time-dependent electrical resistance tomography (ERT) obtained from the BGS PRIME system.

Self potential voltages arise from subsurface pressure and concentration gradients (Jackson et al., 2012). These gradients can cause ion separation, which gives rise to an electrical potential and a flow of electrons in order to maintain electrical neutrality. The potentials (typically in the millivolt range) can be detected and logged in the field using installed electrodes. There are two main types of SP; electro-kinetic potentials (VEK), due to differential flow velocities, and exclusion-diffusion potentials (VED), due to ion concentration gradients with different mobilities. SP has been shown to have a response to pumping tests in (Jackson et al., 2012), though this was limited in scope. In a longer-term study, tidal signatures in SP were recorded in a Chalk borehole less than 2 km inland from the English Channel (MacAllister, 2016). Separating out these two sources of SP can be challenging.

Comparing SP and ERT responses coupled with groundwater level changes show tidal responses with are related to depth below surface and distance from the sea. In addition, results pumped well water levels appears to indicate that the drop in SP is not correlated with the expanding cone of depression from pumping, as the high pressure gradients that occur at the start of pumping has not induced an electrokinetic response. This is in contrast with the results obtained from (Jackson et al., 2012) at an inland site on the Cretaceous Chalk. This, therefore, points to the change in SP being induced by local movements of the saline-freshwater interface in the vicinity of the pumping wells, where a more progressive response is induced by changes in groundwater flow.
A statistical study of the effects of tropospheric variability on the ionosphere parameters
Authors: Potužníková Kateřina , Koucká Knížová Petra
Published: March 2022

State of ionosphere is significantly affected by the dynamics of lower-laying atmosphere. Mesoscale systems are effective sources of atmospheric disturbances that can reach ionospheric heights and significantly alter atmospheric and ionospheric conditions. Large cyclonal systems are recognized to be an efficient source of acoustic and gravity waves that are able to propagate upward and reach the ionospheric heights. Our previous study detected a significant wave-like activity at ionospheric heights following immediately after the cross of the frontal system above the ionospheric station.

In the present paper the effects of the tropospheric variability of standard meteorological parameters associated with the passage of atmospheric frontal systems above the Průhonice station on the upper atmosphere are statistically studied. Our analysis concerns variations in occurrence, height, and critical frequency of sporadic E layer. 
Co-designing Global Water Watch for Anticipatory Action 
Authors: Klein Holkenborg Emie , Winsemius Hessel , van den Homberg Marc
Published: March 2022

Climate change, political instability, and the non-sustainable use of water threaten the per capita water resources of dependent societies and severely impact communities during a period of below-average rainfall. To combat the increasing impact of drought disasters, the International Red Cross Red Crescent Movement focuses on Anticipatory Action. The indication of the status quo of droughts is vital in the anticipation of natural disasters. This indication is potentially benefitted by data on the freshwater reserves. Global Water Watch, being developed by Deltares, WRI, and WWF, is the first online platform providing open access, transparent, and near real-time information on the (historic) water dynamics of fresh surface water resources across the globe, ranging from small to large water bodies. The dataset ranges from 1985 to the present and is derived from earth observation data using artificial intelligence on a global scale. In the scope of Human Centred Design, co-design sessions were held with representatives of Red Cross Red Crescent National Societies in Mozambique, Eswatini, and Zimbabwe. The results were analyzed in a persona journey, gap analysis, and product definition. This resulted in the identification of five potential products of Global Water Watch, related to Anticipatory Action as well as responsive action, the traditional disaster management method used by National Societies. The priority in the recommendation was based on the products their effort in development, relative to their impact. Products that are considered low-hanging fruits in development (high impact, low effort) are monitoring surface waters in near-real-time, and the service of providing data in an API. This ensures that the data can be used in the Impact Based Forecasting platform, developed by 510. Over the long run, a reservoir volume monitor in near-real-time is recommended (high impact, high effort). Also, a long-term recommendation is a product that ensures the export of data in a specific format that can be easily read and shared via email and WhatsApp (low impact, low effort). Last, a product that estimates the future volume of reservoirs (high impact, high effort) could be considered. However, it is not sure if the impact is worth the effort, especially in a situation where a reservoir volume monitor in near-real-time might already be in place.  
Modelling the ocean-ice interactions at the broken state of ice shelves
Authors: Vallot Dorothée , Jourdain Nicolas , Crawford Anna , Åström Jan , Benn Doug , Mathiot Pierre
Published: March 2022

Below ice shelves, complex interactions between the ice and the ocean are at stake that have large implications for future sea level rise. Basal melting from the ocean is recognised to have large impacts on the stability. Many studies focus on theses interactions in coupled models at different spatio-temporal scales. However, most of them consider the basal topography of the shelf as smooth ignoring its irregular state due to basal crevassing or channel-like features. We propose to investigate the impact of these features on basal melt and ice shelf stability by using a discrete particule model and an ocean model applied at the ice shelf of Thwaites glacier.
CO2 and heat content of the French Massif Central thermal and mineral waters.
Authors: Ricci Lisa , Frondini Francesco , Morgavi Daniele , Boudoire Guillaume , Laumonier Mickael , Cardellini Carlo , Ionescu Artur , Ariano Alessandra , Chiodini Giovanni
Published: March 2022

The Massif Central, located in central-southern France, is characterized by the presence of deep CO2-rich hydrothermal systems generally hosted by the rocks of the crystalline basement. The surficial manifestation consists in bubbling pools, mofettes and a huge number of CO2 rich springs, both thermal and fresh. Since the ’70, the area has been extensively investigated in order to evaluate its geothermal potential, becoming a “natural laboratory” for the development of increasingly responsive geothermometers. Here, using both new data and data from previous studies, we estimate the T/pCO2 conditions of the reservoir and the heat content (QH, MW) and the CO2 mass flow rate (QCO2, Kg s-1). of each spring. Results show that circulating waters are characterized by partial equilibrium with respect to silicates oversaturation with respect to calcite and pCO2 up to 2 bar. Temperatures of the hydrothermal reservoirs, estimated with Na/K, Na/Li, Mg-Na-K and silica geothermometers range from 120 °C to 200 °C, in agreement with previous studies. The CO2/heat content ranges from 0.001 and 0.006 kg MJ-1, of the same order of magnitude than Taupo and Salton Trough geothermal systems (0.003 kg MJ-1), slightly higher than Iceland geothermal systems (e.g. Reykjanes, <0.001 kg MJ-1) but much lower than geothermal systems of Southern Europe, e.g. Kizildere (Turkey), Nisyros (Greece), Latera and Torre Alfina (Italy), characterized by CO2/heat ratio one order of magnitude higher.
Albedo-mediated interactive effects of land- and snow cover changes on the radiative forcing in Northern Italy
Authors: Hammerle Albin , Tasser Erich , Matiu Michael , Wohlfahrt Georg
Published: March 2022

The Alps are experiencing large climatic and socio-economic changes. Climate change is leading to an above-average increase in temperatures and subsequent changes in the timing and duration of snow cover. In parallel, socio-economic changes are affecting land use in the Alpine region. Both, snow cover duration/timing and land use changes directly affect the surface albedo of this landscape and therefore the energy balance of this region. Globally, changes in surface albedo due to land use changes and changes in snow/ice cover affect surface albedo, and thus radiative forcing, in opposite directions.
In this study, we investigated the impact of four different future land use scenarios, 12 future snow cover scenarios on the surface albedo in the alpine region of South Tyrol (Italy) in the year 2100 compared to conditions in 2010. Both, the individual effects of changes in land use and future snow cover patterns were investigated, as well as the interactive effects of these two processes.
The hypothetical changes in albedo until 2100 associated with changes in land and/or snow cover were assessed by establishing a surface albedo model based on remotely sensed albedo (MODIS MCD43A1), snow cover data (MODIS MOD10A1), land cover data, as well as geographical information (ASTER ASTGTM).  Potential future land covers were developed on the basis of likely socio-economic pathways and their spatial distribution was mapped. Snow cover scenarios for 2100 are based on EURO CORDEX RCP 2.6 and 8.5 climate scenarios.
Snow cover was by far the most important predictor for albedo, followed by the occurrence of needle leaf forests using a regression tree algorithm. This algorithm exhibited excellent skill in modelling current albedo conditions based on the above-mentioned predictors.
Likely future snow cover conditions lead to a decrease in average albedo, the magnitude of which depended on the chosen RCP and combination of global/regional climate model. Likely future land cover scenarios caused changes in spatially averaged albedo of the study domain in the same order of magnitude like the RCP 2.6 snow cover scenarios. Simulations with factorial combinations of land cover and snow cover scenarios showed the compounding effect of these two processes. 

 

 
Mesoscale modelling of the spatio-temporal variability in wind and solar time series for power and energy system applications
Authors: Luzia Graziela , Hahmann Andrea N. , Koivisto Matti J.
Published: March 2022

Renewable energy generation variability impacts several areas in power and energy systems, such as optimal energy system planning, power system vulnerability to storm shutdowns, and available voltage stability support. For this reason, meteorological data able to represent fluctuation in solar irradiance and wind speed is crucial. For such studies, it is a requirement that time series provided by weather models are capable of simulating temporal dependencies, such as autocorrelations, but also temporal correlations among locations. However, most weather model developments for wind energy studies seem to focus their validations on the mean values of solar and wind variables or the skill of numerical weather prediction forecasts.

In this context, this work aims to contribute to modelling the spatio-temporal variability in solar and wind time series over Northern Europe by addressing the following questions: How does the interaction between the mesoscale model and its forcing impact the quality of generated time series for power and energy system purposes? How do model initialisations affect the temporal dependencies? The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model generates the simulated time series for various sites with available measurements. Different model configurations are tested, such as domain size, placing and nesting, and the impact of abrupt versus smooth initialisation.