Method of estimating the size of an SPTA with a safety stock
Authors: Chepurko V. A. , Chernyaev A. N. 
Published: September 2021

Aim. To modify the classical method [1, 4] that causes incorrect estimation of the required size of SPTA in cases when the replacement rate of failed parts is comparable to the SPTA replenishment rate. The modification is based on the model of SPTA target level replenishment. The model considers two situations: with and without the capability to correct requests in case of required increase of the size of replenishment. The paper also aims to compare the conventional and adjusted solution and to develop recommendations for the practical application of the method of SPTA target level replenishment. Methods. Markovian models [2, 3, 5] are used for describing the system. The flows of events are simple. The final probabilities were obtained using the Kolmogorov equation. The Kolmogorov system of equations has a stationary solution. Classical methods of the probability theory and mathematical theory of dependability [6] were used.  Conclusions. The paper improves upon the known method of estimating the required size of the SPTA with a safety stock. The paper theoretically substantiates the dependence of the rate of backward transitions on the graph state index. It is shown that in situations when the application is not adjusted, the rates of backward transitions from states in which the SPTA safety stock has been reached and exceeded should gradually increase as the stock continues to decrease. The multiplier will have a power-law dependence on the transition rate index. It was theoretically and experimentally proven that the classical method causes SPTA overestimation. Constraint (3) was theoretically derived, under which the problem is solved sufficiently simply using the classical methods. It was shown that if constraint (3) is not observed, mathematically, the value of the backward transition rate becomes uncertain. In this case, correct problem definition results in graphs with a linearly increasing number of states, thus, by default, the problem falls into the category of labour-intensive. If the limits are not observed, a simplifying assumption is made, under which a stationary solution of the problem has been obtained. It is shown that, under that assumption, the solution of the problem is conservative. It was shown that, if the application is adjusted, the rate of backward transition from the same states should gradually decrease as the stock diminishes. The multiplier will have a hyperbolic dependence on the transition rate index. This dependence results in a conservative solution of the problem of replenishment of SPTA with application adjustment. The paper defines the ratio that regulates the degree of conservatism. It is theoretically and experimentally proven that in such case the classical method causes SPTA underestimation. A stationary solution of the problem of SPTA replenishment with application adjustment has been obtained. In both cases of application adjustment reporting, a criterion has been formulated for SPTA replenishment to a specified level. A comparative analysis of the methods was carried out.