Anthromes, CO2 and Terrestrial Carbon – Session 8: Net-zero, carbon as capital, and land justice: Avoiding the great carbon land grab
Authors: Baragwanath Kathryn , Fleischman Forrest , Kline Keith L , Sprenkle-Hyppolite Starry , Davis Maggie 
Published: March 2023

8.30 – 8.35: Welcome to the day

8.35 – 8.55: Collective Property Rights Lead to Secondary Forest Growth in the Brazilian Amazon, Kathryn Baragwanath

8.55 – 9.15: The mismeasure of terrestrial carbon policy: How many current policies are unjust and ineffective and how to fix it, Forrest Fleischman

9.15 – 9.35: Engaging stakeholders to develop inclusive and just net-zero solutions, Keith Kline

9.35 – 9.55: Terrestrial carbon removal activities, standards, certifications, and their expected durations, Starry Sprenkle-Hoppolite

9.55 – 10.15: Forested anthromes: providing an opportunity for net-zero goals through sustainable management, Maggie Davis

Collective Property Rights Lead to Secondary Forest Growth in the Brazilian Amazon

Forests serve a crucial role in our fight against climate change. Secondary forests in the form of forest restoration and reforestation provide important potential for conservation of biodiversity and climate change mitigation. In this paper, we explore whether collective property rights in the form of Indigenous Territories (ITs) lead to higher rates of secondary forest growth on previously deforested areas. We exploit the timing of granting of property rights as well as the geographic boundaries of ITs and two different methods, regression discontinuity design and difference-in-difference to recover causal estimates. We find strong evidence that homologated Indigenous territories not only reduce deforestation inside their lands, but also lead to higher secondary forest growth on previously deforested areas. After homologation, ITs displayed higher secondary forest growth than land outside ITs with an estimated effect of 2%. Furthermore, the average age of secondary forests was 2.6 years older inside homologated ITs. Together, these findings provide evidence for the role that collective property rights can play in the push to restore forest ecosystems.

The mismeasure of terrestrial carbon policy: How many current policies are unjust and ineffective and how to fix it

Widely prescribed policies for increasing carbon in terrestrial ecosystems rely on simplified models from finance and ecology which fail to account for social and political realities as well as more complicated economic and ecological factors. Policies such as carbon offsets and large tree planting campaigns are thus often considered synonymous with terrestrial carbon policy. I will draw on my research in India, Mexico, and the US to show how policies that fail to address highly varied drivers of ecosystem change, many unrelated to either finances or ecology, lead to policy failure, and reinforce the widespread view that ecologists and financiers are grabbing land from poor people to allow rich people to continue carbon-wasteful lifestyles. Solutions rely on working closely with local people and democratically elected governments to understand drivers of change in ecosystem carbon storage, and then design policies that respond to those drivers while building political support for long-term carbon storage.

Engaging stakeholders to develop inclusive and just net-zero solutions

Most nations rely on terrestrial ecosystem sinks as a major part of their emission reduction strategies. Sustaining the carbon-storage capacity of such nature-based sinks in the face of changing climate and increasing societal demands for the provision of multiple ecosystem services will require effective stakeholder engagement and adaptive management. In this context, recent initiatives aim to incorporate principles of social justice while supporting net-zero strategies. We review efforts to devise and implement best practices and “communities of practice” to support inclusive and just transitions toward net zero economies, including the following: • The COP26 Declaration on Conditions for Just Transition • The US Net Zero World Initiative leveraging 9 U.S. government agencies and ten laboratories to support actionable road maps for partner nations to achieve net zero, resilient, and inclusive energy transitions. • International Organization for Standardization (ISO) Workshop Agreement 42, Net Zero Guiding Principles (2022) which aims to enable organizations to achieve net zero GHGs as soon as possible and serve as a common reference for governance (voluntary standards, policy, national and international regulation). Presentation reviews definitions, principles, best practices, and challenges faced by organizations working to achieve net zero goals with an emphasis on justice.

Terrestrial carbon removal activities, standards, certifications, and their expected durations

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is a mitigation activity that captures carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and stores it in reservoirs or products, and proof of storage is given through carbon accounting methodologies embodied in standards. We review nature- and engineering-based terrestrial CDR activities, certifications and standards and explore their expected durations. Using a mapping exercise, we find a complex ecosystem with 23 standard developing organizations certifying carbon removal from 15 different terrestrial CDR activities resulting in the availability of 17 different certification instruments. More standards exist for nature-based compared to engineering-based activities. The process revealed ambiguity on what constitutes CDR and highlights potential reforms to CDR certification.

Furthermore, we conducted a literature review of the expected storage durations, risks, and process times for mineral and geologic formations, long-lived products, soil carbon, and above belowground biomass carbon reservoir types (13 terrestrial CDR activities). We find variations in the expected storage durations that span multiple orders of magnitude between reservoir types and within estimates for the same reservoir type. We discuss the implications of the scaling of terrestrial CDR, of different durations, in relation to the Exponential Roadmap for Natural Climate Solutions and perspectives for future terrestrial carbon storage.

Forested anthromes: providing an opportunity for net-zero goals through sustainable management

Managed forests are an important contributor to nature-based climate solutions. North America’s forestry sector demonstrates how market incentives and sustainable management provide increasing services to society (products, carbon storage, environmental protection). Lessons learned can help other countries as they work to regenerate forest landscapes to achieve emission reduction targets and ecosystem service goals. A systems-thinking approach to complex relationships of functions and values is needed to advance progress towards net-zero goals that depend on this land base. Planning, monitoring and adaptive management based on an understanding of these relationships and key limiting factors, will help mitigate emissions from improper management and maximize the benefits of the CO 2 -fertilization. Strategies that land management organizations (public and private) can employ to achieve these goals will be discussed. This presentation will address the role of small-holders in the US as a contributor to net-zero goals and as an example for other small-holder forested landscapes (e.g., the Brazilian South). Further, we discuss the emergence of carbon markets in the US South as a discussion point for strategizing ways to minimize negative outcomes of the race to net-zero.