Future Energy Resources - An Overview
Authors: Quon D. 
Published: March 2010

The present period marks a turning point in OHT utilization of energy in which we will shortly see the maturation of the petroleum and natural gas consumption patterns and the emergence of a new energy form, namely nuclear energy. In Order to put this displacement of one energy form by another into the proper perspective it is important to realize that this has happened twice before in the last 100 years, and that the modern industrial society has an enormous capacity to adapt to such changes. Furthermore, our potential energy resources, whether measured in terms of the static reserves life index or in terms of an exponential reserve index, are probably greater now than at any previous time since tire beginning of the industrial revolution. Analysis of past consumption and discovery patterns is used to substantiate this claim.

In the transition period, in which a particular energy reserves such as oil or natural gas may become scarce regionally, public policy must recognize the intergenerational externality caused by the usage of a depleting resources. Measure to assure security of supply of energy are suggested.

Introduction

ANY DISCUSSION of energy resources or, for that matter, any other kind of non-renewable natural resource involves questions not only of technology and economics, but also of social and political value systems. Hence, this paper, in addition to having technological and economic components, will also have an ideological component.

There are two extreme views on non-renewable resources the essentially gloomy view of the Malthusian camp who foresee disaster unless we change our ways, and the more optimistic view of the economic determinists who believe that the normal market mechanism together with expected technological progress will keep our problems at a manageable level. The modern Malthusians are perhaps best typified by the Club of Rome, who sponsored Professor Meadows' study on "The Limits of Growth"(1). In accordance with this view, both population and industrial capacity tend to grow exponentially, putting pressure on scarce natural resources, on arable land and on the capacity of the environment to absorb pollution. The standard scenario is for population and capital to overshoot the limits imposed by finite resources, and to subsequently collapse. The question of limits resolves ultimately to a consideration of energy supply – because with abundant energy, the other material resources can be recycled and pollution can be abated to desired levels.

The economic determinists and the technological optimists believe that the market system, despite all its imperfection, will allocate sufficient capital, technology and labour to alleviate the shortage of any commodity, including energy. They further believe that the growth of population and capital will trigger negative feedback mechanisms which will ultimately stabilize these quantities, particularly in societies where there exists a system of pluralistic, informed, decentralized decision-making, as is true of western democracies.

Our position is an intermediate one, with perhaps a bias toward the optimists.