Circulating KRAS variant-specific shedding and association with survival in patients with metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDAC) receiving chemoimmunotherapy.
Authors: Till Jacob Edward , McDaniel Lee , Pfeiffer Shannon M. , Maurer Deena M. , Yu Jia , Spencer Christine , Lyman Jaclyn P. , Cabanski Christopher R. , Da Silva Diane M. , Abbott Charles , Boyle Sean Michael , Rahma Osama E. , Fisher George A. , Ko Andrew H. , Wainberg Zev A. , Wolff Robert A. , O'Reilly Eileen Mary , O'Hara Mark H. , Vonderheide Robert H. , Carpenter Erica L. 
Published: June 2022

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Background: Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) is increasingly used as a prognostic marker with high ctDNA shedding associated with poor survival. Gene-, but not variant-specific, differences in ctDNA shedding have been reported. Tumor burden, mitotic rate, and cell death rate have been proposed as contributors to ctDNA shedding. Here we investigate associations of ctDNA shedding for the two most common mPDAC KRAS variants, G12D and G12V, with tumor burden, mitotic score, and overall survival (OS). Methods: Pretreatment (baseline) ctDNA was analyzed by droplet digital PCR for 86 (including 44 G12D, 30 G12V) patients with mPDAC receiving front-line chemoimmunotherapy in a randomized open-label Phase II study (NCT03214250). Baseline tumor burden in total, within the pancreas, and distally, was assessed by sum of RECIST target lesion diameters. Tumor tissue variant allele fraction (tVAF) and mitotic score (geometric mean expression of 65 mitosis-associated genes) were calculated from DNA and RNA sequencing. Results: ctKRAS shedding (dichotomized at median mutant copies/mL) was associated with OS for G12D bearing tumors (p = 0.03) but not G12V (p = 0.17, log-rank test). To identify variant-specific features of shedding, we examined the Spearman correlation for total tumor burden and ctKRAS shedding; G12D but not G12V shedding was correlated with tumor burden (p = 0.01 and p = 0.22 respectively). However, the higher tVAF in G12V compared to G12D tumors (p = 0.048, Mann-Whitney test) could result from differences in purity, ploidy, and KRAS copy number. Thus, we used tVAF as a scalar to calculate an adjusted tumor burden which was significantly correlated with both G12D and G12V ctDNA shedding (p = 0.004 and 0.02, respectively). When a patient’s distal vs. pancreatic lesions were analyzed separately, pancreatic tumor burden was not correlated with G12D or G12V shedding (p = 0.10 and 0.33, respectively) but distal burden was correlated with both (p = 0.001 and 0.02, respectively). While there was no difference by KRAS variant for the correlation between adjusted tumor burden and shedding, these results do suggest that, in patients with mPDAC, distal rather than primary tumor burden may drive ctDNA shedding. Finally, tumor mitotic rate was combined with adjusted total tumor burden in a linear regression model; both were significant for predicting G12D shedding (p = 0.007 and p < 0.0001, respectively) but not for G12V (p = 0.045 and p = 0.16, respectively). Conclusions: These data suggest that ctDNA shedding and survival associations may be KRAS variant-specific in mPDAC. Tumor mitotic score and location of tumors may explain some variant-specific differences in shedding. As clinical ctDNA tests become more widely used, further investigation of variant-specific shedding in KRAS and other genes may be key for proper interpretation of ctDNA tests.