bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
PENERAPAN EXTREME PROGRAMMING DALAM PENGEMBANGAN SISTEM INFORMASI PENJADWALAN KULIAH JURUSAN AKUNTANSI POLINES
Authors: Suwondo Agus , Mansur Ahmad Wafa , Mardinawati
Published: March 2023

Scheduling is a routine job that is carried out every semester in the college academic system. There are two schedules that are often found in universities, namely the scheduling of lectures and exams, both theoretical and practical. The scheduling process is a process for implementing events that contain components of courses, lecturers, classes and semesters in time slots that contain time and space components. Many aspects must be considered in order to process optimal class schedules and exams. The problem that occurs at this time is the process of making teaching decrees for lecturers which is automatic from the existing system. Research begins with planning, designing, coding, and testing. With the improvement of the scheduling information system using extreme programming, it is hoped that it can help make teaching decrees in the Polines Accounting department.
ANDROID-BASED OUTPATIENT REGISTRATION SYSTEM DESIGN AT KARANG PULE PUBLIC HEALTH CENTER
Authors: Musparlin Halid  , Ikhwan  , Susilawati Wulandari Dewi
Published: March 2023

Karang Pule Public Health Center (PHC) in Mataram, the patient or the patient's family registers by coming directly to the puskesmas. This system causes patients or their families have to wait a long time and the danger is they are vulnerable to Covid-19 transmission. Another impact is frequent errors in the selection of the queue place. Queue place is divided into 2 parts, namely queue A and queue B. Queue A is for patients under 55 years old and queue B is for elderly people above 55 years. Some patients, especially the elderly who do not know their age, cause patients to choose the wrong place to queue and wait even longer. The research objective is to design an Android-based outpatient registration system. The methodology used in this design the application is Waterfall. Data collection techniques used such as observation, interviews, and literature studies. This research produced an application design where patients can see the queue number being served so that patients can estimate the time to come to the intended polyclinic.
ANALISIS WEBSITE PENGELOLAAN DATA MENGGUNAKAN E-SUMUT PADA BAPPEDA SUMATERA UTARA
Authors: Siagian Qori , Daulay Darisma , Desdwiansyah Galang , Ansyari Husein Nur , Lubis Aidil Halim
Published: March 2023

This study aims to find out: Implementation of incoming and outgoing mail management, obstacles encountered in managing incoming and outgoing mail and efforts that can be made to improve management of incoming and outgoing mail at the Bappeda-Su office. Letters in the North Sumatra Regional Development Planning Agency (Bappeda) are still managed manually. To overcome this problem, we need an information system that can assist in archiving incoming and outgoing letters.
STUDI EKSPLORASI PENGARUH KONTEN KEKERASAN DALAM VIDEO GAME DAN TENDENSI AGRESI PADA SISWA SMA DI KOTA BATAM
Authors: Sama Hendi , Fransisco Jecky
Published: March 2023

This study aims to analyze the effect of violent content in video games related to situational factors and personal factors consisting of gender, age, aggression motivation, and aggressive personality and whether it influences aggressive behavior based on the General Aggression Model (GAM). This study has used quantitative and qualitative methods with a sampling technique that is random-stratified-proportional with the target being high school students in Batam city. In the quantitative method, as many as 400 respondents were obtained while in the qualitative method there were 30 respondents. The data analysis method used begins with a data quality test, namely the outlier test, validity test, and reliability test, then the regression test consists of the normality test, F test, T test, multicollinearity test, heteroscedasticity test, R and R2 test. The results of this study have shown that in the quantitative method the motivational factors of aggression and aggressive personality affect aggressive behavior while the results obtained from the qualitative method only that motivational factors of aggression influence aggressive behavior.
ANALYSIS OF SOFTWARE DEVELOPER PERCEPTIONS TOWARDS THE SELECTION OF JAVASCRIPT FRAMEWORK IN BATAM CITY
Authors: Christian Yefta , Hengky Hengky
Published: March 2023

Javascript Framework has been used by a lot of developer in Batam. There are many Javascript Framework with similar functionality. this research aims to find out the influence between performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, and facilitating conditions on developer decision in using Javascript Framework. Our qualitative research have 30 respondent and our quantitative research  have 359 respondent. This research used disproportionate random sampling and the method we used in this research is multiple regressions methods. The result of our hypothesis testing state that there is significant influence performance expectancy, effort expectancy, social influence, and facilitating condition to use behavior.
SISTEM ANALISIS POLA PEMBELIAN KONSUMEN MENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA FP-GROWTH
Authors: Minardi Joko , Mahendra Danang , Sabilla Alzena Dona
Published: March 2023

Sistem pengelolaan penjualan sering kali hanya dimanfaatkan sebagai penyimpanan data transaksi, berapa banyak barang terjual dan hasil laba rugi dalam periode tertentu. Selain untuk hasil laba dan rugi, data transaksi dapat digunakan dalam tindakan dan strategi bisnis suatu usaha. Analisis pola pembelian konsumen dapat dilakukan dengan Teknik data mining yaitu Association Rule. Pola ini, dapat menjadi masukan dalam membuat tindakan dan strategi bisnis. Suatu pola ditentukan oleh dua parameter, yaitu support dan confidence. Analisis pola embelian konsumen ini menggunakan algoritma Frequent Pattern Growth (FP-Growth) dengan menerapkan FP-Tree untuk menemukan sebuah pola transaksi yang sering dilakukan oleh konsumen. Adapun hasil dari penelitian ini ada 2 rule dengan nilai support sebesar 33,33% dan nilai confidence 100% dengan minimum support 30% dan minimun confidence 70%.
Approche morphosociologique de la ville
Authors: MÉQUIGNON Marc-André , LAUDATI Patrizia
Published: March 2023

La ville est un objet d’analyse complexe dont la compréhension ne peut être assurée en tout ou partie que si l’on met en place une démarche pluridisciplinaire. La mise en réseaux de ses différentes composantes, leur connexion conduisent à penser la ville bien évidemment d’une point de vue morphologique mais il convient d’aller au-delà de cette premier approche jugée insuffisante et qui doit intégrer une vision tout a autant spatiale que sociale.
Les ressources de la gestion de crise
Authors: ROBERT Jérémy , GLUSKI Pauline , HARDY Sébastien , METZGER Pascale , SIERRA Alexis
Published: March 2023

Ce chapitre propose une réflexion sur les ressources de gestion de crise. Il s’agit des retours d’expériences corpus qui fournit des éléments concrets sur les impacts et les perturbations engendrés par les crises et sur les moyens mobilisés pour y faire face. La planification de l’allocation de moyens et de ressources en cas de crise sur la base d’approches modélisatrices ou de management constitue une deuxième ressource. Un troisième corpus de travaux envisage les capacités de réponses locales, depuis les moyens de subsistance et la résilience des communautés. Il s’agit d’incorporer la question des risques et des crises à celle du fonctionnement du territoire et du développement en général, ainsi qu’à celle des inégalités.
Crises et territoires : héritages, inerties et dynamiques
Authors: MESCHINET DE RICHEMOND Nancy , VEYRET Yvette
Published: March 2023

Les territoires affectés par des crises ou des catastrophes naturelles ou technologiques sont des héritages d’un passé parfois mal connu, fonction de choix anciens, politiques ou économiques de sorte que territoires et crises ne peuvent être appréhendés sans une contextualisation. L’inertie des représentations qui peut s’exprimer en cas de crise tient aux stéréotypes et aux représentations des acteurs parfois décalés par rapport aux spécificités de la crise « moderne ». La gestion de crise peut être freinée par des comportements irrationnels. Au-delà de crises successives et rapprochées qui nourrissent l’inertie territoriale en empêchant une reconstruction effective dans les pays les plus pauvres, des acteurs de la gestion de crise peuvent, favoriser le maintien à long terme de vulnérabilités profondes intrinsèquement liées au système politique, économique, territorial d’un pays.
L’interopérabilité par les standards : IFC, concepts, méthodes
Authors: BENNING Pierre , DUMOULIN Claude
Published: March 2023

Dans une démarche BIM, il faut de nombreux logiciels pour concevoir et réaliser une construction, l’échange d’informations est crucial, c’est le problème de l’interopérabilité que solutionne le BIM. Les mécanismes concrets de l’interopérabilité par les standards sont abordés à travers le standard IFC, format neutre d’échange (maintenant norme ISO), utilisant des classes d’objets. Les enjeux pour les infrastructures sont abordés.
Structurer l’information pour le jumeau numérique
Authors: ROXIN Ana , CASTAING Christophe , TOLMER Charles-Édouard
Published: March 2023

Structurer l’information par le BIM implique de construire le jumeau numérique de l’ouvrage construit. La norme ISO 19650 du jumeau numérique structure l’objet à réaliser : « le système à faire » et les processus, garantissant le cycle de vie : « le système pour faire». La transition numérique introduit la question de la valorisation de l’information
Microscopie quantitative de phase par analyse de front d’onde
Authors: MONNERET Serge , SAVATIER Julien , BON Pierre
Published: March 2023

Ce chapitre présente l’intérêt d’analyser la forme d’un front d’onde dans le plan image d’un microscope optique pour en déduire un ensemble de propriétés d’échantillons transparents. On produit ainsi des cartes d’épaisseur optique conduisant à un contraste marqué, ou encore l’imagerie sélective de composants optiquement anisotropes. Surtout, la méthode est quantitative et permet certaines mesures, comme le suivi de la masse sèche de cellules biologiques vivantes.
Holographie
Authors: GROSS Michel , VERRIER Nicolas
Published: March 2023

Depuis qu’elle a été proposée par Denis Gabor en 1948, l’holographie a suscité un croissant dans des domaines variés. La méthode étant résolue en phase optique, elle permet d’accéder, sans marquage, à une information tridimensionnelle sur les échantillons, ce qui en fait une méthode de choix en imagerie biologique. Ce chapitre sera l’occasion de présenter les grands principes régissant la méthode et les principales configurations expérimentales.
Reconstruction d’échantillons en microscopie holographique numérique en ligne
Authors: MOMEY Fabien , OLIVIER Thomas , FOURNIER Corinne
Published: March 2023

La microscopie holographique en ligne permet l'observation d'échantillons microscopiques transparents, d’où son intérêt en microbiologie. L'information accessible de phase et d'absorption requiert des algorithmes de reconstruction robustes, à élaborer en lien étroit avec le design optique du montage. Ce chapitre propose de faire un état de l'art dans ce domaine, en s'appuyant principalement sur la méthodologie des problèmes inverses.
Ideas and perspectives. The fluctuating nature of oxygen shapes the ecology of aquatic habitats and their biogeochemical cycles: the aquatic oxyscape
Authors: Fusi Marco , Rigaud Sylvain , Guadagnini Giovanna , Barausse Alberto , Marasco Ramona , Daffonchio Daniele , Régis Julie , Huchet Louison , Camin Capucine , Pettit Laura , Vina-Herbon Cristina , Giomi Folco
Published: March 2023

Abstract. Oxygen availability is a pivotal factor for ecosystem functioning and the resistance of organisms to the effect of climate change in aquatic habitats. Although extensive work has been made to assess the effect of oxygen on marine and freshwater biota, many studies did not capture the ecological importance of oxygen variations. Overlooking the fluctuating nature of oxygen may cause potential biases in the design and implementation of management policies of aquatic habitats. Conceptual perspectives on the dynamic nature of oxygen fluctuations have been raised in the scientific community to enhance the understanding of the effect of oxygen on the physiology and the ecology of aquatic species and the biogeochemical functioning of the ecosystems. A growing number of empirical works are outlining a novel conceptual framework that considers the magnitude of oxygen fluctuation as a key variable that explains adaptation to stress conditions. Oxygen in productive aquatic habitats shows large fluctuations at diel and seasonal scales, exposing aquatic species from conditions of extreme supersaturation to anoxia. Recent research indicates that such fluctuation tunes the physiological plasticity of the animal in response to thermal stresses. In this contribution, we provide compelling evidence based on current research that the fluctuating oxygen landscape, here defined as “oxyscape”, has an important role in aquatic animal physiology and adaptation and the ecosystem biogeochemistry. We propose that the oxyscape should be considered in the modelling and managing policies of aquatic ecosystems.
What will Meteosat Third Generation Bring to the Table for Severe Storm Analysis?
Authors: Lindsey Dan
Published: March 2023

The first satellite in the Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) series was launched on 13 December 2022. It carries the state-of-the-art Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) and Lightning Imager (LI) which will provide significant improvements to geostationary observations over Europe, Africa, and surrounding regions. The FCI has 16 spectral channels, collects full disk images every 10 minutes, and provides up to 500 m spatial resolution, all notable upgrades over the imager aboard the previous Meteosat Second Generation series. And the LI will provide the first continuous optical lightning detection capability from geostationary orbit over Europe. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has been operating its Advanced Baseline Imager and Geostationary Lightning Mapper as part of the GOES-R satellites series over the western hemisphere since 2016. These instruments have many similarities to MTG’s and provide ideal proxy data for understanding how the new satellite observations will benefit severe storm analysis and short-term forecasting in Europe and Africa.

This presentation will highlight the various ways that NOAA’s GOES-R satellites have improved severe storm analysis over the U.S. These include better detection of boundaries prior to convective initiation (CI), improved monitoring of cumulus fields and low-level moisture in anticipation of CI, the ability to track lightning activity, improved depiction of severe storm top features such as above anvil cirrus plumes and overshooting tops, and the ability to occasionally detect storm-scale rotation from space. In The potential of all of these will be discussed in the context of severe storm nowcasting over MTG’s domain.
Reconstructing Long-Term (1950-2021) Trends in Convective Hazards using Additive Logistic Regression Models
Authors: Battaglioli Francesco , Groenemeijer Pieter , Púčik Tomáš , Taszarek Mateusz , Ulbrich Uwe , Rust Henning
Published: March 2023

Additive Logistic Regression Models for different convective hazards were developed across Europe and a portion of North America using lightning observations, severe weather reports and convective parameters from the ERA5 reanalysis. To model convective hazards, convective initiation was taken explicitly into account by computing, for instance, Phail (probability of hail) as the product of P­storm (probability of convective initiation) and Phailstorm (conditional probability of hail given a storm). We will report on the development of models that are skilful across Europe and North America, and on the regionally dependent skill of convective parameters used as model predictors. To reconstruct the probability of lightning, large hail, and very large hail from 1950 to 2021, the models were applied to the ERA5 reanalysis, at one hourly intervals across both regions. The modelled hazard climatologies are in strong agreement with observed patterns and can accurately resolve local-scale features thanks to the (0.25 x 0.25° degree) spatial resolution of the ERA5 reanalysis. We analysed long-term trends over the 71 year period and detected important differences between the regions. Across North America, 1950–2021 hail trends were found to be weak and mostly non-significant, but a period of enhanced lightning activity (+30% to 1950–2021 average) was detected between 1980 and 1990 across the Central Plains. In Europe, trends are mostly positive and significant, with the highest trend modelled across Northern Italy. Here, the convective activity has seen an abrupt increase with very large hail 3 times as likely in recent years (2012–2021) than in the 1950s. Apart from a sharp increase in frequency, the year-to-year variability has also increased with yearly differences in occurrence exceeding 100% for large and 200% for very large hail compared to the long-term average. In addition to (very) large hail, preliminary results on the development of models for severe wind gusts and tornadoes models along with the corresponding long-term trends will be presented.
Forecasting Large Hail using Additive Logistic Regression Models and the ECMWF Reforecasts
Authors: Battaglioli Francesco , Groenemeijer Pieter , Tsonevsky Ivan , Púčik Tomáš
Published: March 2023

An Additive Logistic Regression model for large hail (ARhail) was developed using convective parameters from the ERA5 reanalysis, hail reports from the European Severe Weather Database (ESWD) and lightning observations from the Met Office Arrival Time Difference network (ATDnet). This model was shown to accurately reproduce the climatological distribution and the seasonal cycle of observed hail events in Europe. To explore the value of this approach to medium-range forecasting, a similar four-dimensional model was developed using predictor parameters retrieved from the ECMWF reforecasts: Mixed Layer CAPE, Deep Layer Shear, Mixed Layer Mixing Ratio and the Wet Bulb Zero Height. This model was applied to ECMWF reforecasts to compute probabilistic large hail forecasts for all available 11 ensemble members, from 2008 to 2019 and for lead times up to 228 hours. First, we compared the hail ensemble forecasts for different lead times with observed hail occurrence from the ESWD focusing on a recent hail outbreak. Secondly, we systematically evaluated the model’s predictive skill depending on the forecast lead time using the Area under the ROC Curve (AUC) as a validation score. This analysis showed that ARhail has a very high predictive skill (AUC > 0.95) for forecasts up to 60 hours lead time. Although the performance scores progressively decrease with increasing lead time, ARhail retains a high predictive skill even for extended forecasts (AUC = 0.86 at 180 hours lead time) showing that it can provide useful guidance in hail forecasting well in advance. Finally, the performance of the four-dimensional model was compared with that of composite parameters such as the Significant Hail Parameter (SHP) and the product of CAPE and Deep Layer Shear (CAPESHEAR). Results show that ARhail outperforms CAPESHEAR (at all lead times) and SHP (especially at short lead times). This suggest that the developed Additive Logistic Regression model can improve hail forecasting compared to currently used composite indices in Europe.
Idealized study of the interaction between squall lines and convective cells
Authors: Schielicke Lisa , Pacey George , Gatzen Christoph , Pfahl Stephan
Published: March 2023

Squall lines are mesoscale lines consisting of numerous convective cells with an along-line extent of at least 100 km and a smaller across-line extent on the order of tenths of kilometers. Typically, squall lines form in a sheared environment by interactions of convective cells that are near to each other. Over time, the convective cells form a continuous cold pool that drives the motion of the squall line.

Initiating single convective cells in a sheared environment leads to the production of vertical vorticity due to tilting. Hence, these cells are connected to positive and negative vertical vorticity patches. While a squall line forms a band of positive and negative vorticity patches along the line, single cells will form a vorticity dipole.

In this work, we investigate the interaction between squall lines and convective cells initiated in the vicinity of the squall line. This interaction can be understood as an interaction between different vortices. We study different configurations using (1) idealized simulations with the non-hydrostatic, convection-permitting Cloud Model 1 (CM1) and (2) a theoretical point vortex model representative of the vorticity ensembles.

Squall line simulations with CM1 are initially run for 3 hours until a mature squall line forms. After 3 hours, convective cells are initiated at different positions near the squall line. The impact of the convection on the squall line is studied by an analysis of the squall line intensity and motion. In addition, the setup is studied using a point vortex model of a comparable vortex ensemble. A point vortex model is an idealized, mathematical model that describes vortex dynamics of a two-dimensional, non-divergent, inviscid atmosphere. Despite these strong limitations, it can be used to understand vortex dynamics and interactions in a relatively simple, but descriptive way. Moreover, the model describes well the vortex dynamics on the larger, synoptic scale. For example, a vortex couple of zero total circulation with the positive vortex south of the negative one starts to move towards the west which counteracts the typical westerly flow of the midlatitudes and, hence, leads to a slowed-down motion of the couplet compared to the westerlies.

The general aim of this work is to better understand the interaction between single cells and convective lines. The results will contribute towards improved squall line forecasting.
The climatology and nature of warm-season convective cells in cold-frontal environments over Germany
Authors: Pacey George , Pfahl Stephan , Schielicke Lisa , Wapler Kathrin
Published: March 2023

Cold fronts provide an environment particularly favourable for convection in the mid-latitudes with advection of low-level moisture, synoptic-scale ascent and modification of atmospheric instability among some of the most important mechanisms. However, the importance of different mechanisms at different locations relative to the front (i.e., pre-frontal, frontal and post-frontal), is not currently well-understood. Cold-frontal convection has attracted the attention of several case studies but spatial and temporal climatologies over longer timeseries of data are very limited, especially during the warm-season. A further question of interest is how cold-frontal environments may alter the nature of convection in terms of convective organisation, cell intensity and the associated convective hazards.

By combining automatic front detection methods and the KONRAD cell detection and tracking algorithm a climatology of cold-frontal convective cells is produced in Germany between 2007–2016 for April–September. We find that on average around twice as many cells develop on cold-frontal cell days compared to non-cold-frontal cell days. Using the 700hPa level as a reference point we show the maximum cell frequency is 350–400km ahead of the 700hPa frontal line which is marginally ahead of the mean surface front location and maximum in surface convergence. The 700hPa front location marks the minimum in the cell frequency and a clear shift in regime between cells with a weakened diurnal cycle on the warm-side of the 700hPa cold front and strongly diurnally driven cells on the cold-side. High cell frequencies are found several hundreds of kilometres ahead of the surface front and cells in this region are most likely to be associated with mesocyclones, intense convective cores and lightning where CAPE is climatologically higher.

 

 
Exceptionally heavy rainfall in Karlovo valley
Authors: Markova Boryana , Kleshtanova Viktoria , Kirilova Anastasiya
Published: March 2023

Exceptionally heavy rainfall are one of the most difficult and challenging problems for forecasters. The synoptic situation at the beginning of September 2022, which led to significant precipitation in the Karlovo valley, was analysed. 24-hour rainfall amount of more than 200 mm were recorded, which is an event exceeding the climatic precipitation characteristics established for the region, including the rare events. The synoptic situation was based on a cyclogenesis in the Gulf of Genoa, and cyclone which passed through the southern regions of the Balkans towards the Black Sea. The precipitation is related to the formed convergent zone over Bulgaria and to the divergence on the 200/300 hPa level. Comparison with the monthly rainfall amount in the area of Karlovo as a climate showed almost 4 times exceeded values for 24-hours. The environmental conditions for development of heavy rainfall over Bulgaria was investigated using proximity sounding obtained by the numerical model GFS. Several instability indices (CAPE, Lifted index, K index, Total-Total index and etc.) and vertical wind shears between various layers are analysed in order to verify their ability to forecast rainfall. Their skill to predict severe storm types is evaluated by calculation of probability of detection (POD) and false alarm ratio (FAR). The data at the surface necessary for the calculations of the instability indices are taken from synoptic stations of National Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (NIMH) located in centralen Bulgaria.

 
Applications of FCI near-IR 0.91µm channel for detection of low-level humidity
Authors: Smiljanić Ivan , Nietosvaara Vesa
Published: March 2023

Up until the introduction of Meteosat Third Generation FCI instrument, the concept of low-level moisture estimation using solely data from imagers on board GEO satellites was to a high degree limited to so-called split window difference, i.e. difference in the brightness temperatures (BT) between two IR channels in ‘atmospheric WV window’ spectral region. Perhaps the biggest down side of this approach is the fact that BT difference relies heavily on the vertical temperature profiles of the atmosphere (the temperature of moisture level), also few other factors like aerosol presence play role.

Introduction of water-vapour absorption channel in the near infra-red (NIR) spectral region avoids the dependency on any temperature profiles, plus it provides even higher spatial sampling on the full disc domain. Hence the novel NIR0.91 FCI channels is seen as one of the crucial tools for nowcasting of severe storms, i.e. assessment of pre-conditions and moisture feeding dynamics of convective systems. The concept of NIR low-level moisture estimate and recent findings through a proxy data will be discussed.

It is worth adding that this is the first time that NIR0.9 channel is introduced with one of the major meteorological GEO satellite imagers, globally. Hence the importance for early discussions on potential capabilities.
Damage survey, environment and storm-scale evolution of the giant hail and F4 tornado producing supercell on 24 June 2021
Authors: Pucik Tomas , Groenemeijer Pieter , Singer Miroslav , Ryva David , Stanek Miloslav , Pistotnik Georg , Kaltenberger Rainer , Holzer Alois
Published: March 2023

In the afternoon of 24 June 2021, severe hailstorms affected Austria, Czechia, and Poland and an F4 tornado occurred in southeastern Czechia. Along the 27.1 km long path, it damaged 1200 buildings and caused 6 fatalities and more than 280 injuries. The width of the damage path was extreme for European standards, up to 2500 m across. The zone with significant damage of F2 or stronger was up to 520 m wide. Isolated instances of F4 damage were noted in 3 villages with the destruction of well-constructed brick walls and significant debarking of trees. We discuss the challenges associated with surveying the tornado from an organizational point of view to the strategy onsite. Improvements are proposed to make surveys of such large-scale events more effective.

The event was not well forecast even by expert forecasters present at the ESSL Testbed 2021. Although the environment was clearly conducive for supercells capable of very large hail with high values of CAPE (> 3000 J/kg) and strong vertical wind shear (0-6 km bulk shear > 20 m/s), lower tropospheric shear was forecast to remain fairly weak by most of the NWP models with 0-1 km bulk shear < 10 m/s and 0-1 km SRH < 100 m2/s2. The fact that only one tornado (and of such a high intensity) occurred in the area despite numerous supercells present points to the importance of mesoscale modifications to the environment. We address the storm-scale evolution starting from the merger of two storms through updraft intensification with giant hail production, and subsequently, low-level mesocyclone strengthening and tornado production. We also discuss the importance of local mesoscale boundaries and modification to the environment shortly before the tornado.

The event illustrates a number of difficulties with tornado forecasting in Europe. The first is the lack of sufficient data exchange among countries. The tornado passed within 10 km of the borders of Austria and Slovakia and the tornado-producing supercell formed over Austria. No exchange of automatic station surface observations and volumetric radar data between those countries takes place and this likely limited the situational awareness of forecasters. While the tornado occurred over Czechia, the storm was best detected from a Slovakian radar. Another difficulty was the aggressive filtering of doppler velocity data that masked the core of the low-level mesocyclone preventing forecasters to appreciate the intensity of the event as it unfolded. 
Analysis of the high-end derecho in Corsica in 2022
Authors: Kreitz Michaël , Gatzen Christoph , Púčik Tomáš
Published: March 2023

On August 18, 2022, Europe experienced the most severe storm of the year. In the early morning, a derecho formed, causing significant damage along a path of over 1000 km as it travelled at an exceptional speed of up to 40 m/s, with wind gusts reaching a maximum of 62.2 m/s. The storm had a widespread impact, affecting Spain, France, Italy, Slovenia, Austria, and the Czech Republic. The severe weather caused fatalities in several countries, with the highest death tolls reported on Corsica and in the Alps. The focus of this analysis is to understand the factors that led to the derecho's exceptional intensity. We examine the storm's chronological development, and the intensification phases it underwent. We also investigate how external and internal forcing contributed to the rapid upscale growth of the storm.

From the perspective of external factors, we show the importance of a mid-level front and warm air advection at the lower levels and their relation to the distribution of CIN in the vicinity of the event. We show that the development and movement of convective cells were influenced by the mid-level front. The system was also strongly influenced by the internal forcing as it formed in an environment of high CAPE values and strong low-level vertical wind shear, and intense storm-relative inflow. The combination of internal and external forcing factors eventually resulted in the extreme forward speed of the derecho. Due to the interaction with complex topography, the derecho underwent several weakening and strengthening phases, which we associate with the changes to the internal and external forcing. Finally, we compare the environment of the derecho to typical environments of severe convective wind gusts in Europe and compare the event to similar Mediterranean derecho cases from the past.
The International Fujita Scale and its implementation
Authors: Groenemeijer Pieter , Holzer Alois M. , Kühne Thilo , Púčik Tomáš
Published: March 2023

Here we report on the development of the International Fujita (IF) scale, developed by ESSL and partners, which provides a globally applicable framework for rating tornado and convective wind damage. 

Around the world, tornado damage is rated using the Enhanced Fujita (EF-)scale, the original Fujita scale, the T-scale, or national adaptations of the Enhanced Fujita scale. ESSL started the development of the IF-scale when noted that the original Fujita scale damage description provided insufficient guidance for rating tornadoes in Europe, mostly because of varying sturdiness of damaged buildings, an issue that Fujita himself addressed in his later work. The development of the IF-scale was catalysed by the introduction of the EF-scale in the USA in 2007, which drastically reduced wind speed estimates for higher wind speeds while simultaneously raising it for the F0/F1 boundary compared to the original F-scale: a change apparently motivated by a need to correct for biases in tornado rating practices.

Instead of referring to building types typical for a specific region, the IF-scale instead defines categories of Damage Indicators that are more universal and can be adapted to other regions, using a damage indicator ‘building’ with an attribute ‘sturdiness’. Any building can be a damage indicator after being assigned a level of sturdiness. The IF-scale also retains the original Fujita-scale wind speed estimates, at least until measured data are available that give better estimates. The wind speed that the scale relates to is instantaneous rather than the average wind speed at 10 m above ground, as evidence is accumulating (through high-quality videos and mobile doppler radar measurements) that the wind speeds responsible for tornado damage often have a much shorter duration than the typical averaging periods for wind gust measurements. The IF-scale heavily borrows from experience in regions that have adapted the EF-scale locally, such as the Japanese and Canadian adaptations, and adds additional damage indicators such as for trees, road and rail vehicles, and many other objects.

Recently, ESSL evaluated a preliminary version of the IF-scale by applying it to a violent tornado case in Czechia on 24 June 2021. This application revealed weaknesses that have since been addressed. We will present the latest version of the IF-scale that has become the standard scale used in ESSL’s record of severe weather in Europe, the European Severe Weather Database.
Radar-based extreme rainfall analysis for small areas
Authors: Goudenhoofdt Edouard
Published: March 2023

Warnings of extreme precipitation averaged over a small area and during a short duration are needed by people and the public services to ensure their safety. For these localized extreme events, accurate statistics can be derived from radar-based precipitation estimation using a regional analysis. This method has already been applied for rainfall averaged over a square of 1 km by Goudenhoofdt, Delobbe and Willems (2017). The extreme statistics can then be combined in realtime with precipitation estimation or nowcasting to provide relevant warnings. For this purpose web and smartphone applications can be developed to let the user define areas, durations and return periods of interest. Additional parameters could be added in the framework of a probabilistic approach.

In the first step of this project, we need to perform the extreme value analysis. The quality of a 10-year radar rainfall product for extreme events will be analyzed by comparison with independent rain gauge measurements. The principles of the regional frequency analysis will be presented together with the underlying hypothesis on the rainfall process. The statistical method will be tested using rectangles with different length, width and orientation. This will allow to analyze the impact of these parameters on the extreme precipitation statistics. Eventually the possibility to extent the method to any given small area will be discussed.
The impact of dry thunderstorms in Southwestern Romania
Authors: Brâncuș Mihaela , Burada Cristina , Drîgă Florin
Published: March 2023

Dry thunderstorms occur in low humidity conditions and thus there are no significant precipitation at the ground. While there is no threat regarding heavy rainfalls, there are some associated phenomena that can produce severe damages: dry lightning – cloud-to-ground lightning and dry microburst. During the hot summer days, when convection initiates, the falling precipitation evaporates below the high base cloud because of the dry and very warm air. The evaporative cooling in turn contributes to negative buoyancy fueling strong downdrafts, resulting strong winds at the surface. These dry thunderstorms represent the main cause of wildfires. Also, due to strong lightnings power outages can occur and household appliances can be damaged.

Southwestern Romania is the region with the strongest lightning activity between 2012–2022 and, also, the heat waves here have among the highest frecquency and intensity in the country. The increasing air temperature led to an increase in the frequency of the heat waves in this region, considering that 68% of the heat waves during 2001–2020 period occured in the last 10 years. Thus, in the summer in Southwestern Romania the optimal conditions for dry thunderstorms occurrence are met. In this study, dry thunderstorm cases that produced severe wind gusts (up to 29 m/s), strong lighning activity but light rainfalls (les than 5 mm) are analyzed with the aim to assess the social and economic impact of lightning and wind gusts in such type of storms, improving the awareness of the public and local authorities. The synoptic features showed that dry thunderstorms precede shallow cold fronts and their associated phenomena can become severe when an intense heat wave is present.
Global instability indices derived from EUMETSATs current and future hyperspectral Infrared sounding missions
Authors: Goukenleuque Cedric , Stapelberg Stefan , Crapeau Marc , Hultberg Tim
Published: March 2023

Convection can yield severe weather events (thunder, wind gust, tornadoes, hail, flash-flood...) which can have dramatic societal consequences. Identifying areas with potential atmospheric instabilities is hence critical to issue accurate warnings, as early as possible, to prepare population, economic actors and civil protection.

The measurements from EPS-IASI and the future EUMETSAT hyperspectral infrared sounder missions IASI-NG and MTG-IRS contain information about the thermodynamic state of the atmosphere, which are important to weather forecasting. In particular, MTG-IRS will offer unparalleled data on atmospheric thermodynamic parameters with a high vertical resolution and horizontal sampling of 4 km at Nadir and temporal sampling of 30 minutes over Europe. This unprecedented system offers a significant advance in operational observation and will be a great asset to regional short-range weather forecasting and nowcasting. The hyperspectral infrared observations can be used to determine thermodynamic parameters and cloud information that can be used to supplement regional models for nowcasting, for the purpose of more accurately and quickly identifying areas of potential instability and associated weather phenomena like vertical motion, convection, precipitation, and severe storms.

A number of indices is planned to be generated centrally within the L2 processing facilities of IRS, IASI and IASI-NG. It aims at ensuring continuity with other GII products, e.g. MSG and consistency with the MTG-FCI follow-up products. It is completed with a few more indices collected in the literature and from initial interactions with forecasters. We present here the results of the calculation of these indices based on real observations by IASI and on the full Earth's disk such as seen by MTG-IRS. The latter are the sub-products of the primary retrieved temperature and moisture profiles, based on realistic cloudy sky radiances simulation.
Stormforecast.eu: real-time automated forecasts for hail and lightning based on post-processed NWP
Authors: Groenemeijer Pieter , Battaglioli Francesco , Púčik Tomáš
Published: March 2023

The European Severe Storms Laboratory (ESSL) has developed logistic models (AR-CHaMo) for the occurrence of lightning and (very) large hail based on the ERA5 reanalysis, with the primary purpose of investigating long-term chance in severe weather occurrence. These models can, however, also be used in a forecasting context. 

We have set up a routine that uses AR-CHaMo models to post-process the output of three different NWP models, the ECMWF IFS HRES, DWD's ICON-EU, and NCEP's GFS to obtain probabilities of hail and lightning occurrence. The results were evaluated as a part of the ESSL Testbeds in 2022.

Forecast maps showing the calculated probabilities for the current and following day are calculated from the average of the three models and are made available on a website. The website interface allows overlaying reports from the European Severe Weather Database, which give an impression of the quality of the forecasts and help to identify existing weaknesses. Work is underway to include ensemble forecasts, and quantitative real-time verification, and to extend the forecast horizon as part of projects supported by the Austrian Science Fund and ECMWF. We show several AR-CHaMo lightning and large hail forecasts that resulted in no hail, large hail, and very large hail and discuss their performance.  
Unique observational data from an automatic hail sensors network in Switzerland
Authors: Kopp Jérôme , Manzato Agostino , Martius Olivia , Germann Urs , Hering Alessandro
Published: March 2023

We present an investigation of the first observations from the Swiss Hail Network Project, a network of 80 fully automatic hail sensors (Kopp et al., 2022) installed between 2018 and 2020 in the three most hail-prone regions of Switzerland: the Jura, the Napf and Ticino (NCCS 2021). Those sensors provide new hail ground-based information, not only about each hailstone size (estimated by an indirect measures of its kinetic energy), but also about the precise timing of hailstone individual impact (Löffler-Mang et al., 2011), allowing to obtain a time-resolved hail size distribution (HSD).

More specifically, we investigate the point (local) duration of hailfalls, the event hit rate (impacts per second) and time-resolved HSD. We also present and discuss the potential sources of uncertainty specific to the hail sensor, such as the dead time (minimum time between two consecutive observations).

We then compare our observations to measurements from an hailpads network in northeastern Italy (Manzato et al., 2022). While our sample is still limited (around 10’000 hailstone impacts registered during 4 warm seasons) with respect to the hailpads records (29 warm seasons), we found that the HSD obtained with both measurements’ devices are very close to each other.

Finally, we discuss the further combination of the sensor data with radar hail products (Kopp et al., 2022), the exceptionally high density of crowdsourced hail reports collected in Switzerland (Kopp et al., 2022) and the recent drone measurements of hail (Martin Lainer et al., abstract ECSS2023-5), which could pave the way to new and exciting research avenues on hail understanding and forecasting.

Kopp, J., Schröer, K., Schwierz, C., Hering, A., Germann, U. and Martius, O. (2022), The summer 2021 Switzerland hailstorms: weather situation, major impacts and unique observational data. Weather. https://doi.org/10.1002/wea.4306

Löffler-Mang, Martin, Dominik Schön, and Markus Landry. 2011. « Characteristics of a New Automatic Hail Recorder ». Atmospheric Research 100 (4): 439‑46. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2010.10.026.

Manzato, Agostino, Andrea Cicogna, Massimo Centore, Paolo Battistutta, and Mauro Trevisan. 2022. « Hailstone Characteristics in NE Italy from 29 Years of Hailpad Data ». Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, août. https://doi.org/10.1175/JAMC-D-21-0251.1.

NCCS (2021) National Centre for Climate Services : Hail climatology Switzerland. https://www.nccs.admin.ch/nccs/en/home/the-nccs/priority-themes/hail-climate-switzerland.html, accessed 26 December 2022
Severe convective events in Russia: observed changes based on various data
Authors: Chernokulsky Alexander V.
Published: March 2023

Changes in the frequency and intensity of severe convective events, including heavy showers, thunderstorms, hail, squalls, and tornadoes are analyzed for the Russian regions for the warm season based on various independent sources of information. Surface observations from Russian meteorological stations for the period 1966–2020 are used to analyze the frequency of thunderstorms, hail, and strong winds, the amount of cumulonimbus clouds, as well as contribution of extreme showers to the total amount of precipitation. Satellite data are used to estimate the frequency and intensity of tornado and squall events that caused windthrow (for 1986–2021) and the deep convection cloud top height (for 2002–2021). Based on the data of the ERA5 reanalysis, the frequency of occurrence of conditions favorable for the development of moderate and intense convective events is analyzed. The results of the analysis highlight a general intensification of severe convective events in the majority of Russian regions except for several regions in the south of European Russia. The frequency of occurrence of moderate events tends to decrease, while those of strong events tend to increase. A general intensification of severe convective events in Russia is also confirmed by the available results of regional studies in this research area.
Giant hail in Poland produced by a supercell merger in extreme instability
Authors: Matczak Patryk , Piasecki Krzysztof , Taszarek Mateusz , Czernecki Bartosz , Skop Filip , Sobisiak Adrian
Published: March 2023

This work focused on an exceptionally severe supercell thunderstorm that produced giant hail in the densely populated area of Gorzów Wielkopolski in Poland on 11 June 2019. The main purpose of our research was to investigate the uniqueness of this storm, as well as examine the reasons for the occurrence of a giant hail. Severe thunderstorms that occurred over eastern Germany and western Poland caused severe material losses primarily due to large hail. For the first time such an accurate inventory of 79 large hail reports on such a small area has been carried out, including the largest with a diameter of 12 cm and heaviest with a weight of 380 g. Information on large hail incidents was derived from voluntary observers and reports available in social media. Evaluation of environmental and Doppler radar data indicate that three unique aspects characterize this event. Firstly, the storm benefited from a favorable convective environment including a record-high CAPE exceeding 4000 J kg-1 that was the highest ever measured value at a proximity rawinsonde station of Lindenberg, and the highest for this region according to ERA5 since 1950. Synoptic scale patterns indicate that a low pressure system over western France with an easterly oriented trough lead to the advection of warm and unstable air mass towards central Europe. Convective initiation in the discreet mode took place along the convergence line ahead of the approaching cold front. Large atmospheric instability and strong vertical wind shear driven by the upper tropospheric jet stream allowed convection to quickly evolve into supercells. Secondly, moisture pooling along the convergence zone led to convective initiation of 3 isolated cells that merged together. Two of them with already embedded rotation. This merger subsequently evolved into a single powerful mesocyclone that was a main cause of giant hail. Third, a supercell had the biggest intensity over a densely populated area, which led to considerable material losses, but also allowed collection of a large number of hail reports. Distribution of these reports indicates that peak hail size varied significantly on very small distances. Storm has been producing giant hail for around 20-minutes over a distance of around 10 km and was preceded by a well-developed velocity couplet, bounded weak echo region and hook-echo signatures on the Doppler radar scans.