Predicting the Outcome of Patients with Severe COVID-19 with Simple Inflammatory Biomarkers: The Utility of Novel Combined Scores—Results from a European Tertiary/Referral Centre
Authors: Ntalouka Maria P. , Brotis Alexandros , Mermiri Maria , Pagonis Athanasios , Chatzis Athanasios , Bareka Metaxia , Kotsi Paraskevi , Pantazopoulos Ioannis , Gourgoulianis Konstantinos , Arnaoutoglou Eleni M. 
Published: February 2024

Background: The clinical significance of combinations of inflammatory biomarkers in severe COVID-19 infection is yet to be proved. Although several studies have evaluated the prognostic value of biomarkers in patients with COVID-19, there are limited data regarding the value of the combination scores that could take full advantage of the prognostic value of several biomarkers and that could account for the heterogeneity of patients with severe COVID-19. We investigated the prognostic value of combination scores of admission values of inflammatory biomarkers in adults with severe COVID-19. Methods: Adults admitted to the Department of Respiratory Medicine of the UHL with severe COVID-19 (April-September 2021, NCT05145751) were included. Demographics, medical history, laboratory tests and outcome (high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC), admission to Intensive Care Unit (ICU) or death) were recorded. The optimal cut-off points of on admission values of C-reactive protein (CRP), CRP to lymphocyte ratio (CLR), lymphocyte to neutrophil ratio (LNR) and derived variation of neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (dv-NLR (neutrophil/white blood count-lymphocyte)) for the predetermined outcome were defined. Based on the cut-off of CRP, LNR, dv-NLR and CLR, which were found to be predictors for HFNC, 3 scores were defined: CRP and LNR (C-CRP #1), CRP and dv-NLR (C-CRP #2), CRP and CLR (C-CRP #3). Likewise, based on the cut-off of CRP and CLR, which were found to be predictors for death, the score of CRP and CLR (C-CRP #3*) was defined. The combination scores were then classified as: 2 points (both biomarkers elevated); 1 point (one biomarker elevated) and 0 points (normal values). None of the biomarkers was predictive for the ICU admission, so no further analysis was performed. Binomial logistic regression analysis was used to establish the predictive role for each biomarker. Results: One hundred and fifteen patients (60% males, mean age 57.7 years) were included. Thirty-seven (32.2%) patients required HFNC, nine (7.8%) died and eight (7%) were admitted to ICU, respectively. As far as HFNC is concerned, the cut-off point was 3.2 for CRP, 0.231 for LNR, 0.90 for dv-NLR and 0.004 for CLR. Two points of C-CRP #1 and 2 points of C-CRP #3 predicted HFNC with a probability as high as 0.625 (p = 0.005) and 0.561 (p < 0.001), respectively. Moreover, 1 point of C-CRP #2 and 2 points of C-CRP #2 predicted HFNC with a probability of 0.333 and 0.562, respectively. For death, the optimal cut-off point for CRP was 1.11 and for CLR 3.2*1033. Two points of C-CRP #3* with an accuracy of 0.922 predicted mortality (p = 0.0038) in severe COVID-19. Conclusions: The combination scores of CRP and inflammatory biomarkers, based on admission values, are promising predictors for respiratory support using HFNC and for mortality in patients suffering from severe COVID-19 infection.