Geosocial Media’s Early Warning Capabilities Across US County-Level Political Clusters: Observational Study (Preprint)
Authors: Arifi Dorian , Resch Bernd , Santillana Mauricio , Guan Weihe Wendy , Knoblauch Steffen , Lautenbach Sven , Jaenisch Thomas , Morales Ivonne , Havas Clemens 
Published: January 2025

BACKGROUND

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) sparked significant health concerns worldwide, prompting policy makers and health care experts to implement nonpharmaceutical public health interventions, such as stay-at-home orders and mask mandates, to slow the spread of the virus. While these interventions proved essential in controlling transmission, they also caused substantial economic and societal costs and should therefore be used strategically, particularly when disease activity is on the rise. In this context, geosocial media posts (posts with an explicit georeference) have been shown to provide a promising tool for anticipating moments of potential health care crises. However, previous studies on the early warning capabilities of geosocial media data have largely been constrained by coarse spatial resolutions or short temporal scopes, with limited understanding of how local political beliefs may influence these capabilities.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to assess how the epidemiological early warning capabilities of geosocial media posts for COVID-19 vary over time and across US counties with differing political beliefs.

METHODS

We classified US counties into 3 political clusters, democrat, republican, and swing counties, based on voting data from the last 6 federal election cycles. In these clusters, we analyzed the early warning capabilities of geosocial media posts across 6 consecutive COVID-19 waves (February 2020-April 2022). We specifically examined the temporal lag between geosocial media signals and surges in COVID-19 cases, measuring both the number of days by which the geosocial media signals preceded the surges in COVID-19 cases (temporal lag) and the correlation between their respective time series.

RESULTS

The early warning capabilities of geosocial media data differed across political clusters and COVID-19 waves. On average, geosocial media posts preceded COVID-19 cases by 21 days in republican counties compared with 14.6 days in democrat counties and 24.2 days in swing counties. In general, geosocial media posts were preceding COVID-19 cases in 5 out of 6 waves across all political clusters. However, we observed a decrease over time in the number of days that posts preceded COVID-19 cases, particularly in democrat and republican counties. Furthermore, a decline in signal strength and the impact of trending topics presented challenges for the reliability of the early warning signals.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides valuable insights into the strengths and limitations of geosocial media data as an epidemiological early warning tool, particularly highlighting how they can change across county-level political clusters. Thus, these findings indicate that future geosocial media based epidemiological early warning systems might benefit from accounting for political beliefs. In addition, the impact of declining geosocial media signal strength over time and the role of trending topics for signal reliability in early warning systems need to be assessed in future research.