bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Measuring work complexity for acute care services
Authors: Lin Shuguang , Rouse Paul , Zhang Fan , Wang Ying‐Ming
Published: July 2021

Case weights capture the resource cost by diagnosis‐related group (DRG) but may not fully reflect the complexity of the clinical services provided. This study describes the use of a work complexity index (WCI), for assessing acute care services focusing on those provided by physicians in healthcare systems. The services are classified using relative value units (RVUs) and their point value assigned using the resource‐based relative value scale. 57,559 acute inpatients from a tertiary hospital were first classified into diagnosis‐related groups, which together with the relative value units assigned to services were then used to calculate a work complexity index for 38 departments. A case mix index (CMI) was also compiled as a conventional measure of complexity which had a correlation of 0.676 (p < 0.001) with the WCI. The correlation between the WCI and the RVUs representing the weighted volume of physician activities was 0.342 (p = 0.036). The WCI represents a more output or activity focused measure of complexity whereas the CMI is more patient focused and thus provides better insights into Departments' productivity. Although this paper focuses on physicians, the WCI can be easily extended to include other clinical services.
Characterization of the blood and neutrophil‐specific microbiomes and exploration of potential bacterial biomarkers for sepsis in surgical patients
Authors: Wang Chenyang , Li Qiurong , Tang Chun , Zhao Xiaofan , He Qin , Tang Xingming , Ren Jianan
Published: July 2021

Introduction

Recent studies have demonstrated the presence of a circulating microbiome in the blood of healthy subjects and chronic inflammatory patients. However, our knowledge regarding the blood microbiome and its potential roles in surgical patients remains very limited. The objective of this study was to determine the blood microbial landscape in surgical patients and to explore its potential associations with postoperative sepsis.

Materials and Methods

2825 patients who underwent surgical treatments were screened for enrollment and 204 cases were recruited in this study. The patients were sub‐grouped into noninfected, infected, sepsis, and septic shock according to postoperative clinical manifestations. A total of 222 blood samples were obtained for neutrophil isolation, DNA extraction and high‐throughput sequencing, quantitative proteomics analysis, and flow cytometric analyses.

Results

Blood and neutrophils in surgical patients and healthy controls contained highly diverse microbiomes, mainly comprising Proteobacteria, Actinobacteria, Firmicutes and Bacteroidetes. The majority (80.7%–91.5%) of the microbiomes were composed of gut‐associated bacteria. The microbiomes in septic patients were significantly distinct from those of healthy controls, and marked differences in microbiome composition were observed between sepsis and septic shock groups. Several specific bacterial genera, including Flavobacterium, Agrococcus, Polynucleobacter, and Acidovorax, could distinguish patients with septic shock from those with sepsis, with higher area under curve values. Moreover, Agrococcus, Polynucleobacter, and Acidovorax were positively associated with the sequential (sepsis‐related) organ failure assessment scores and/or acute physiology and chronic health examination scores in septic shock patients. The proteins involved in bactericidal activities of neutrophils were downregulated in septic patients.

Conclusions

We present evidence identifying significant changes of blood and neutrophil‐specific microbiomes across various stages of sepsis, which might be associated with the progression of sepsis after surgical treatments. Several certain bacterial genera in blood microbiome could have potential as microbial markers for early detection of sepsis.
Pan‐cancer analysis of prognostic metastatic phenotypes
Authors: Zaorsky Nicholas G. , Wang Xi , Garrett Sara M. , Lehrer Eric J. , Lin Christine , DeGraff David J. , Spratt Daniel E. , Trifiletti Daniel M. , Kishan Amar U. , Showalter Timothy N. , Park Henry S. , Yang Jonathan T. , Chinchilli Vernon M. , Wang Ming
Published: July 2021

Although cancer is highly heterogeneous, all metastatic cancer is considered American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Stage IV disease. The purpose of this project was to redefine staging of metastatic cancer. Internal validation of nationally representative patient data from the National Cancer Database (n = 461 357; 2010‐2013), and external validation using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database (n = 106 595; 2014‐2015) were assessed using the concordance index for evaluation of survival prediction. A Cox proportional hazards model was used for overall survival by considering identified phenotypes (latent classes) and other confounding variables. Latent class analysis was performed for phenotype identification, where Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and sample‐size‐adjusted BIC were used to select the optimal number of distinct clusters. Kappa coefficients assessed external cluster validation. Latent class analysis identified five metastatic phenotypes with differences in overall survival (P < .0001): (Stage IVA) nearly exclusive bone‐only metastases (n = 59 049, 12.8%; median survival 12.7 months; common in lung, breast and prostate cancers); (IVB) predominant lung metastases (n = 62 491, 13.5%; 11.4 months; common in breast, stomach, kidney, ovary, uterus, thyroid, cervix and soft tissue cancers); (IVC) predominant liver/lung metastases (n = 130 014, 28.2%; 7.0 months; common in colorectum, pancreatic, lung, esophagus and stomach cancers); (IVD) bone/liver/lung metastases predominant over brain (n = 61 004, 13.2%; 5.9 months; common in lung and breast cancers); and (IVE) brain/lung metastases predominant over bone/liver (n = 148 799, 32.3%; 5.7 months; lung cancer and melanoma). Long‐term survivors were identified, particularly in Stages IVA‐B. A pan‐cancer nomogram model to predict survival (STARS: site, tumor, age, race, sex) was created, validated and provides 13% better prognostication than AJCC: 1‐month concordance index of 0.67 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.66‐0.67) vs 0.61 (95% CI: 0.60‐0.61). STARS is simple, uses easily accessible variables, better prognosticates survival outcomes and provides a platform to develop novel metastasis‐directed clinical trials.
Stillbirths in Germany: On the rise, but no additional increases during the first COVID‐19 lockdown
Authors: Kniffka Maxi S. , Nitsche Natalie , Rau Roland , Kühn Mine
Published: July 2021

Objective

To examine possible changes in the rate of stillbirths in Germany during the first COVID‐19 lockdown.

Methods

Population‐level data of live births and stillbirths occurring between January 1995 and July 2020 were used and negative binomial regression was applied to estimate the rate of stillbirths in this period. The actual rate was compared to the expected figure for 2020.

Results

A steady increase in stillbirths was detected in Germany since 2013. The stillbirth rate for January to July 2020 (4.148) was slightly lower than that of the same period in 2019 (4.242). Furthermore, all monthly rates of stillbirths during the first half of 2020 lie inside the 95% prediction interval of expected stillbirth rates for this period.

Conclusion

A growing body of studies on the indirect effect of the COVID‐19 pandemic on stillbirths shows mixed and context‐dependent evidence. In contrast to other European countries, stillbirth rates have been on the rise in Germany in the last decade. However, stillbirth rates during the first half of 2020 were not higher than expected. The results suggest that stillbirth rates have not changed during the first‐wave COVID‐19 lockdown in this high‐income setting. However, further studies on the causes of the increasing trend in stillbirths in Germany are needed.
Multi‐ and dual‐tuned microstripline‐based transmit/receive switch for 7‐Tesla magnetic resonance imaging
Authors: Abuelhaija Ashraf , Saleh Gameel , Nashwan Osama , Issa Samer , Salama Sanaa
Published: July 2021

This article introduces two new designs of transmit/receive switches for 7‐Tesla magnetic resonance imaging. Both designs based on a microstripline coupler technology. In the first design, a different single frequency signals can be handled to/from a radio frequency coil using smart tuning network. In the second design, a dual‐tuned 1H/23Na transmit/receive switch is designed to handle a dual resonant signal to a dual resonant 1H/23Na coil, simultaneously and without tuning. In transmit and receive, the first design achieved good matching (‐20 dB), and low insertion loss (0.78 dB) for the 1H, 19F, 31P, 13C, and 23Na magnetic resonance signals with high isolation (61 dB). Similarly, the dual‐tuned 1H/23Na switch achieved good matching (<−11.5 dB) and low insertion loss (1.0 dB) with high isolation (67 dB), whereas for 1H/31P switch, good matching has been achieved (<−12 dB) and low insertion loss (0.96 dB) with high isolation (62 dB). The first proposed switch enables the use of the same switch with different coils resonating at Larmor frequencies of different atomic nuclei. The second switch can handle a dual resonant signal to a single dual resonant coil. The first design is promising in reducing the costs by using the same switch with different coils. The second design is promising in the integration with multichannel dual resonant coil.
Purchasing Power Parity in High‐Inflation Countries: A Cointegration Analysis of Integrated Variables with Trend Breaks
Authors: Zhou Su
Published: July 2021

This paper examines the long‐run validity of purchasing power parity (PPP) for four high‐inflation countries. The method of Zivot and Andrews (1992) is employed to detect the time‐series behavior of the exchange rates and consumer price indices of these countries. We find that these variables are integrated with some trend breaks. We then utilize these data to test PPP using Johansen's (1988) multivariate cointegration technique. The cointegration tests are conducted with the correction of the finite sample bias and the adjustment for trend breaks. The results are consistent with the argument that, during the recent floating exchange‐rate period, PPP holds well, at least in a weak form, in high‐inflation countries where the general price level movement overshadows the factors causing deviations from PPP.
Estimating Permanent and Transitory Components of GNP Using Consumption Information
Authors: Elwood S. Kirk
Published: July 2021

This paper estimates permanent and transitory components of GNP using an unobserved components model that incorporates consumption information. Agents that discriminate between permanent and transitory as well as anticipated and unanticipated changes in GNP signal the persistence of a change in GNP by the size of their consumption response. Consumption data have previously been employed to discern permanent and transitory properties of GNP using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. The unobserved components approach used in this paper has several advantages over the VAR approach and provides new evidence concerning the two components.
Profit versus Cost Frontier Estimation of Price and Technical Inefficiency: A Parametric Approach with Panel Data
Authors: Atkinson Scott E. , Cornwell Christopher
Published: July 2021

We develop two panel data models, based on the assumption of shadow‐profit maximization, to obtain firm‐specific parametric estimates of allocative, scale, and technical inefficiency. One is a restricted shadow‐profit system with additional equations for quasi‐fixed inputs that allow testing for the efficiency of their utilization. The other is a shadow‐cost system augmented with an equation to capture deviations from marginal‐cost pricing. We show that with the translog functional form, the shadow‐profit system may encounter computational difficulties that the shadow‐cost system avoids. An application of the shadow‐cost system to the U.S. airline industry is provided.
Dynamic Portfolio Adjustment and Capital Controls: A Euler Equation Approach
Authors: Broer D. Peter , Jansen W. Jos
Published: July 2021

We present a multiasset dynamic portfolio balance model that is based on the maximization of an intertemporal utility function in consumption when investors operate under uncertainty, quadratic adjustment costs, and capital market regulations. We estimate the model's structural parameters on quarterly portfolio data of the German private sector. Asset demand is insensitive to return changes, although the coefficients are significant. Adjustment costs are low but highly significant, giving rise to moderate lags of adjustment. Still, existing capital controls and adjustment costs cannot explain the currently observed “home bias” in the portfolio. Overall, our results imply a strong rejection of the portfolio model.
Exchange Rates, Domestic Prices, and Central Bank Actions: Recent U.S. Experience
Authors: Parsley David C. , Popper Helen A.
Published: July 2021

Central banks that are primarily concerned with the behavior of prices will use monetary policy to try to insulate prices from exchange rate changes. Prices then appear unresponsive to changes in the exchange rate. The observed relationships between prices and the exchange rate will reflect central bank actions instead of the underlying relationship between exchange rates and prices. This paper explicitly recognizes the role that policy plays in determining the observable relationships between exchange rates and prices, and in so doing, it illustrates how the underlying relationships can be unraveled. Using three different empirical approaches, we examine the recent experience of the United States. We find that the prices of various nondurable goods, and even of some services, respond modestly to the exchange rate, and we find that the responses emerge most clearly when the role of monetary policy is explicitly considered. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that the Federal Reserve acts to mitigate the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on domestic prices.
The Median Voter According to GARP
Authors: Turnbull Geoffrey K. , Chang Chinkun
Published: July 2021

This paper adapts the generalized axiom of revealed preference (GARP) empirical method to the public goods problem to test whether observed municipal public spending can be explained “as if” the city governments maximize the utility of the median income voter. It applies the test procedure for medium‐size municipal governments in five Midwest states. The data are consistent with GARP and reveal that the local governments in the sample behave as if they maximize median voter utility once we control for the state‐specific effects, government management structure, and population density.
Birthweight Productivity of Prenatal Care
Authors: Warner Geoffrey
Published: July 2021

The ability of prenatal care to produce birthweight, through faster fetal growth, is examined within the Rosenzweig and Schultz framework. Prenatal care, measured by the time delay in initiating care and the number of care visits, adjusted for gestation, was specified in various functional forms, permitting an examination of its marginal returns. Maternal anthropometric characteristics, such as height and prepregnancy weight, were included as measures of limits on fetal growth. Race‐specific regressions were performed. Prenatal care visits, but not delays, were found to significantly increase the rate of fetal growth for black mothers. Prenatal care did not significantly increase the rate of fetal growth for white mothers. Multicollinearity in the complex specifications and weak identification of the birthweight equation prevent strong conclusions as to whether the marginal returns to prenatal care are constant, decreasing, or increasing. Maternal anthropometrics were found to greatly increase the rate of fetal growth for all mothers, though more so for white than black mothers. Prenatal care appears to be but a modest tool in reducing the incidence of low birthweight due to retarded fetal growth.
The Impact of Regulation on Input Substitution and Operating Cost
Authors: Granderson Gerald , Lovell C. A. Knox
Published: July 2021

We investigate the impact of rate‐of‐return regulation on the substitutability between pairs of inputs, where substitutability is measured using Morishima elasticities of substitution (MES), and on operating cost. Theory does not provide a qualitative characterization of the impact of regulation on input substitutability, although it does provide a basis for speculation. We test our speculation using a 1977‐87 panel of 20 U.S. interstate natural gas pipelines that were subject to rate‐of‐return regulation during the period. We find that regulation increased the MES of each rate base input for the non‐rate base input and reduced the MES between the two rate base inputs and of the nonrate base input for each rate base input. We also find that the regulatory distortion of input substitutability led to an increase in operating cost of 16%, on average, across all companies and through all years in the sample.
Learning in Sequential Auctions
Authors: Jeitschko Thomas D.
Published: July 2021

The importance of information transmission and learning is studied in a model of a sequential auction in which bidders have independent private values. In the course of the auction, information about the bidders' values becomes available as winning bids are revealed. From this, bidders learn about their opponents' types. A more subtle effect of information is that bidders anticipate the generation of information and take this into account in the first auction.

The equilibrium in this model is contrasted to a scenario in which bidders are unaware of informational effects. It is shown that bidders who are aware of informational effects place lower bids on average and hence have higher payoffs. Properties of the equilibrium price path are studied. Regardless of the outcome of the first auction, the second price is expected to be equal to the first price. Despite this, the probability of a decreasing price sequence depends on the information generated in the first auction. Finally, it is shown that a simultaneous auction, in which informational effects are absent, yields the same expected final allocation as the equilibrium.
Experimental Results on Expressed Certainty and Hypothetical Bias in Contingent Valuation
Authors: Blumenschein Karen , Johannesson Magnus , Blomquist Glenn C. , Liljas Bengt , O'Conor Richard M.
Published: July 2021

Use of the contingent valuation method is controversial among economists because it is based on hypothetical rather than real choices. Previous experiments have suggested that the commonly used dichotomous choice contingent valuation method leads to hypothetical bias, i.e., overestimates the real willingness to pay. We carried out an experiment to compare the dichotomous choice contingent valuation method with real purchase decisions for a consumer good. We confirm previous findings that hypothetical yes responses overestimate real purchase decisions, but we cannot reject the null hypothesis that definitely sure yes responses correspond to real purchase decisions.
Relative Price Determination in the Medium Run: The Influence of Wages, Productivity, and International Prices
Authors: Strauss Jack
Published: July 2021

This work explores three critical assumptions of the Balassa‐Samuelson productivity differential model for the short and medium run: wage equalization, competitive labor markets, and purchasing power parity. The data reveal violations in these assumptions for France, Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. Significant wage and unit labor cost differentials exist across industries, and traded and nontraded sectors and these differentials do not diminish over time. The findings are consistent with the presence of industry and/or sectoral‐specific human capital.
The Impact of Foreign Trade on the Employment of Unskilled U.S. Workers: Some New Evidence
Authors: Pryor Frederic L.
Published: July 2021

This paper explores four empirical relationships reflecting the impact of foreign trade on the employment of unskilled workers: (i) the direct relationship between net exports and embodied education of the corresponding goods; (ii) the changes in domestic prices accompanying changes in net exports; (iii) the relationship between real or potential import competition and defensive measures such as more investment or increasing the skill level of the labor force; and (iv) the relationship between foreign trade and domestic prices. None of these exercises suggests that foreign trade has much impact on the employment of less skilled U.S. workers.
The Effectiveness of Vehicle Safety Inspections: An Analysis Using Panel Data
Authors: Merrell David , Poitras Marc , Sutter Daniel
Published: July 2021

We examined the effectiveness of state automobile safety inspections and present new evidence from a panel of the 50 states for the years 1981‐1993. Our approach incorporated several innovations over previous studies of safety inspections; most significantly, we estimated a fixed‐effects model that incorporated state‐specific shifts in casualty rates. We found no evidence that inspections significantly reduce fatality or injury rates. Our study also provides evidence on the effects of speed limits, seat belts, and Peltzman's offsetting behavior hypothesis.
Time‐Varying Response of Monetary Policy to Macroeconomic Conditions
Authors: Shen Chung‐Hua , Hakes David R. , Brown Kenneth
Published: July 2021

We reject the hypothesis that the Federal Reserve's response to the macroeconomy over the period of 1953‐1994 can be accurately represented with a fixed‐parameter discrete choice model. Thus, we model the Fed's time‐varying response with a nonlinear Kalman filter. The estimated time paths of the reaction function coefficients suggest that the Fed has responded countercyclically to movements in the price level except for the middle 1970s when it accommodated inflation. The Fed has generally responded countercyclically to unemployment and output during recessions. However, it has not maintained a countercyclical policy during nonrecessionary times until the 1980s.
Quantitative Restrictions in the Presence of Cost‐Based Informational Asymmetries
Authors: Herander Mark G. , Kamp Brad
Published: July 2021

This study introduces a cost‐based informational asymmetry into a two‐period model where a domestic (incumbent) firm's behavior in the first period affects the entry decision of a foreign firm in the second period. The effects of import quota policy within this environment are examined and compared to the standard, full‐information effects. When quota quantities are set exogenously, the standard effects of quota policy may be significantly altered depending on whether or not policy induces the domestic firm to signal cost structure. For example, higher quotas may discourage foreign entry because of the induced signaling effects of quota policy.
Adverse Selection and Pay Compression
Authors: Stewart Jay
Published: July 2021

A fundamental result of the principal‐agent literature is that pay will be linked to performance when it is difficult for the principal to monitor the agent's actions. However, performance pay can lead to adverse incentives. In these models, high‐powered incentives encourage workers to neglect some aspects of their job or to sabotage their coworkers' efforts. This paper offers another explanation for the weak link between pay and performance: worker heterogeneity. When workers are heterogeneous and labor contracts are contests, the Nash equilibrium often pools workers. I show that this implies that the link between pay and performance is weaker than would be the case if firms could observe workers' types before contracting and offer each type their respective optimal contests.
The Reconstruction Finance Corporation, the Gold Standard, and the Banking Panic of 1933
Authors: Butkiewicz James L.
Published: July 2021

The banking crisis of 1933, which forced a national holiday closing the entire U.S. financial system, is often blamed on either publication of the names of banks borrowing from the Reconstruction Finance Corporation, a speculative run on the gold‐backed dollar due to fears that president‐elect Roosevelt would devalue the currency, or both. Evidence presented here indicates that neither factor started the final banking crisis of the depression. The Michigan bank holiday ignited the panic, resulting in a series of bank holidays and a run on the dollar. This chain of events toppled the United States financial system.
The Return to Hours and Workers in U.S. Manufacturing: Evidence on Aggregation Bias
Authors: DeBeaumont Ronald , Singell Larry D.
Published: July 2021

Reliance on overtime or part‐time work is contested by organized labor and suggests employers exploit trade‐offs between workers and hours. Worker‐hour models predict return to hours and workers' estimates are crucial in evaluating the trade‐off between them. This paper uses data that vary by industry to test and reject a common production structure across industries used in prior work; this aggregation is shown to yield an upward bias in return‐to‐hours estimates. Contrary to prior evidence, the industry‐specific return‐to‐hour estimates are lower than return‐to‐worker estimates and are generally less than one, suggesting that trade‐offs between workers and hours may be cost effective.
Exclusive versus Common Dealership
Authors: Gabrielsen Tommy Staahl , Sørgard Lars
Published: July 2021

In a setting with two differentiated producers and identical retailers, we analyzed whether the producers will have a distribution system with one or several retailers. In contrast to the existing literature, we allow for full foreclosure under both types of distribution systems. We find, in contrast to what has been shown in the received literature, that the producers will prefer a distribution system with a single common retailer to a system with separate exclusive dealers.
Ecological Interaction as a Source of Economic Irreversibility
Authors: Kahn James R. , O'Neill Robert V.
Published: July 2021

Irreversibility can be either physical or economic in origin. For example, the extinction of a species is physically irreversible. On the other hand, contamination of lake‐bottom sediments by mercury is not physically irreversible (the mercury and/or sediments can be physically removed), but the cost is so high that it can be said to be economically irreversible. This paper argues that economic irreversibility associated with environmental change is much more common than typically discussed in the economics literature. The source of the problem is the inherent complexity of ecological relationships. The paper discusses the origin and policy importance of these indirect irreversibilities.
Inflation, Inflation Uncertainty, and Relative Price Variability
Authors: Aarstol Michael
Published: July 2021

This paper tests three models that predict a relationship between the variability of relative price changes (RPV) and aspects of inflation such as expected inflation, unexpected inflation, and inflation uncertainty. These are, respectively, the menu‐costs model, the Lucas‐Barro signal‐extraction model, and the Hercowitz‐Cukierman extension of the Lucas‐Barro model that allows for different price elasticities of supply across markets. The results imply rejection of the hypothesis that any one of the models entirely explains the relationship between inflation and RPV and also imply rejection of the hypothesis that the three models together jointly explain the relationship.
A Note on Insurance Coverage in Incomplete Markets
Authors: Hau Arthur
Published: July 2021

In this paper, “full insurance coverage on average” is defined as the coinsurance rate that eliminates all insurable risk when the uninsurable risk is evaluated at its mean. The regressibility assumption is used to derive the conditions on the correlation between background and insurable risks and the actuarial unfairness of insurance under which full, over‐, or underinsurance on average is optimal. These conditions are compared to those for the case of default risk. Together, they explain intuitively the different results under the cases of background risk and default risk obtained in the literature.
International Monetary Regimes and Incidence and Transmission of Macroeconomic Shocks: Evidence from the Bretton Woods and Modern Floating Periods
Authors: Dibooğlu Selahattin
Published: July 2021

This paper investigates the relationship between international monetary regimes and incidence and transmission of macroeconomic shocks within the context of an open‐economy macro model. Empirical results confirm monetary interdependence and lower incidence of monetary discretion under fixed exchange rates. The average magnitude and dispersion of supply shocks in Bretton Woods and the subsequent float is comparable; however, the average magnitude and dispersion of real demand shocks under Bretton Woods seems higher. Overall, the international monetary regime may pose important constraints to policymakers in open economies.
Profitable Mergers in a Cournot Model of Spatial Competition
Authors: Norman George , Pepall Lynne
Published: July 2021

This paper investigates the profitability and locational effects of mergers when Cournot firms compete in spatially differentiated markets. A two‐firm merger is generally profitable because the merged partners can coordinate their location decisions. The merged firm locates its plants outside the market quartiles with distance from the market center being an increasing function of the number of nonmerged firms remaining at the market center. Profitable two‐firm mergers reduce competitive pressure, leading to higher prices and reduced consumer surplus. The merger increases total surplus by increased locational efficiency and the increased profits of the merged and nonmerged firms.
Evidence of Adverse Selection from Thoroughbred Wagering
Authors: Chezum Brian , Wimmer Bradley S.
Published: July 2021

Previous research has shown the thoroughbred sales market to be affected by adverse selection. In the market, sellers who race as well as breed thoroughbreds will choose to keep thoroughbreds when their estimated private values exceed expected sales prices. The presence of asymmetric information leads these sellers to sell their low‐quality horses and keep their best for racing. We extend the analysis by examining how bettors use similar information when wagering on thoroughbred races. We show, using a sample of two‐year‐old maiden races, that homebreds (those horses kept by their breeders for racing) are favored over otherwise similar nonhomebreds.
Has Greater Competition Restrained U.S. Inflation?
Authors: Duca John V. , VanHoose David D.
Published: July 2021

This paper shows how increased goods market competition affects the behavior of inflation in a multisector economy. By raising the price elasticity of demand, increased goods market competition theoretically lowers inflation and makes the aggregate price level less sensitive to aggregate demand shocks. We find that proxies for the aggregate degree of goods market competition are statistically and economically significant in short‐run Phillips curve models of core inflation. Evidence indicates that heightened goods market competition has flattened the slope of the short‐run, expectations‐augmented Phillips curve and slightly lowered the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU).
Government Debt and Economic Growth in an Overlapping Generations Model
Authors: Lin Shuanglin
Published: July 2021

Prior studies have shown that an increase in government debt raises the real interest rate and lowers the rate of economic growth. In an overlapping generations model of endogenous growth, this paper shows that an increase in government debt may not increase the real interest rate with the real interest rate being greater than the growth and that an introduction of government debt will increase the growth rate of per capita output if the growth rate is greater than the real interest rate and will decrease the growth rate if the growth rate is less than the real interest rate.
Collective Action with Incomplete Commitment: Experimental Evidence
Authors: Schmitt Pamela , Swope Kurtis , Walker James
Published: July 2021

Face‐to‐face communication is investigated as an efficiency‐enhancing mechanism in experimental common‐pool resource environments in which the appropriation activities of outside appropriators create coordination and monitoring problems for the communicating group. We identify three distinct problems that can threaten successful collective action. Outsiders respond strategically to reductions in appropriation by cooperating group members. Members of the communicating group deviate from agreements more frequently when monitoring is imperfect and over appropriation can be blamed on outsiders. Groups that are allowed to communicate anticipate the potential problems and have difficulty reaching agreements or committing to a specific appropriation rule.
How Forward Looking Are Consumers? Further Evidence for the United States
Authors: Himarios Daniel
Published: July 2021

This paper extends a standard model of consumption to test for the existence of “myopic” consumers. The extended model includes “rule‐of‐thumb” consumers as well as consumers who are assumed to solve a dynamic programming problem. The model allows this second set of consumers, however, to be “boundedly rational.” For a variety of reasons, they may be unable to fully account for their future uncertain labor income. The model predicts that this inability to correctly value future resources leads to the breakdown of the simple permanent income hypothesis and that consumption responds to predictable changes in income. Using data for the United States for the period 1951‐1990, the paper finds evidence of such myopic behavior.
A Test of the Structure of PAC Contracts: An Analysis of House Gun Control Votes in the 1980s
Authors: McGarrity Joseph P. , Sutter Daniel
Published: July 2021

We examine roll call votes on gun control in the U.S. House of Representatives during the 1980s to determine whether political action committees (PACs) make spot market purchases, prepay for votes in the prior election cycle, or make long‐term investments. Previous tests generally employ PAC contributions from only one cycle, which could impose the wrong structure on contracts between PACs and politicians, causing researchers to misestimate a contribution's impact. We find that money from more than one election cycle influences roll call votes, which suggests that PAC expenditures are not simple spot market or one‐period prepayment contracts. Most remarkably, we find that the National Rifle Association buys votes with contributions from three election cycles.
Are People Sometimes Too Honest? Increasing, Decreasing, and Negative Returns to Honesty
Authors: Basuchoudhary Atin , Conlon John R.
Published: July 2021

We show that sender honesty can hurt receivers in simple signaling games. The receiver faces a trade‐off between its ability to work with senders and the quality of information it can get and use from them. Our example also contradicts recent work suggesting that returns to honesty should be increasing. Positive, increasing returns are restored in our model if the receiver can precommit.
Choosing Winners and Losers in a Classroom Permit Trading Game
Authors: Anderson Lisa R. , Stafford Sarah L.
Published: July 2021

This paper presents a classroom game in which students trade pollution permits. By changing the distribution of permits across firms, the game shows students how the allocation of property rights determines the winners and losers in the permit trading system but does not affect the efficiency of the system. This game can be used in a variety of classes, including principles or environmental economics, and can be conducted in a 50‐minute class period with follow‐up discussion in the next class.
Alternative Panel Estimates of Alcohol Demand, Taxation, and the Business Cycle
Authors: Freeman Donald G.
Published: July 2021

This paper uses a new technique of estimating dynamic heterogeneous panels developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (1999) on state‐level alcohol consumption as a function of income, taxes, and cyclical variables. Pooled mean group (PMG) estimators provide an alternative to extremes of pooling the data assuming slope homogeneity and estimating individual states assuming complete heterogeneity. Postsample tests indicate that a conventional fixed‐effects model outperforms both the PMG estimator and individual state estimators, despite the heterogeneity of the sample. Current levels of taxation appear to have little effect on alcohol consumption, and alcohol is found to be a procyclical good.
Experience, Tenure, and the Perceptions of Employers
Authors: Lewis Danielle , Terrell Dek
Published: July 2021

This paper examines how group‐based assessments concerning employee ability impact employee compensation. The employer learns about worker ability through Bayesian updating, creating an additional channel for wage growth that is not available to those workers with only general labor market experience. Consistent with the model's predictions, results from National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) indicate that black workers fare much better relative to white workers in returns to tenure than in returns to experience. Finally, parameter estimates in the structural model suggest that employers initially undervalue black males but that their wages rise with learning by employers over time.
The Economic Consequences of Professional Sports Strikes and Lockouts
Authors: Coates Dennis , Humphreys Brad R.
Published: July 2021

The National Basketball Association (NBA) lockout of 1998‐1999 resulted in the cancellation of a significant number of games. According to the claims made by proponents of sports‐driven economic growth, cities with NBA franchises should experience significant negative economic losses from this work stoppage because of the lost spending in and around basketball arenas during this event. Although it will be several years before adequate data exist for a careful ex post evaluation of the effects of the lockout, an examination of the impact of past work stoppages in professional football and basketball can shed some light on the potential impact of the NBA lockout as well as the viability of professional sports as engines of economic growth in cities. The parameter estimates from a reduced‐form empirical model of the determination of real per capita income in 37 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) over the period 1969‐1996 suggest that prior work stoppages in professional football and baseball had no impact on the economies of cities with franchises. Further, the departure of professional basketball from cities had no impact on their economies in the following years. These results refute the idea that attracting professional sports franchises represents a viable economic development strategy.
An Exponential Family of Lorenz Curves
Authors: Sarabia José‐María , Castillo Enrique , Slottje Daniel J.
Published: July 2021

A new method for building parametric‐functional families of Lorenz curves, generated from an initial Lorenz curve (which satisfies some regularity conditions), is presented. The method is applied to the exponential family since they use the exponential Lorenz curves as their generating curves. Several properties of these families are analyzed, including the population function, inequality measures, and Lorenz orderings. Finally, an application is presented for data from various countries. The family is shown to perform well in fitting the data across countries. The results are very robust across data sources.
Evidence on the Volunteer Labor Supply of Married Women
Authors: Carlin Paul S.
Published: July 2021

I estimate a significant, positive wage elasticity of married women's volunteer labor supply from 1975 to 1976 U.S. time diary data. Increases in the number of children in the household significantly raise participation rates but reduce volunteer hours. I find weak support for a sequential time allocation model of volunteering where the wage as the opportunity cost of time has only a second‐order effect on volunteer hours. Increased hours of market work for married women decrease their volunteering. Cash and time donations are complements at the volunteer participation level but substitutes in terms of married women's volunteer hours.
Response Error and the Union Wage Differential
Authors: Bollinger Christopher R.
Published: July 2021

Broad variation in estimates of the union wage gap has perplexed labor economists. One specification error that is consistent with the observed variation is measurement error in reported union status. This article applies results of Bollinger (1996) to estimate a range for the union wage gap. Both a cross‐sectional model and a fixed‐effects model are estimated. In order for the true coefficient in the fixed‐effects model to be bounded below the true coefficient in the cross‐sectional estimates, measurement error would have to be less than 0.8%. The difference between the fixed‐effects estimates and the cross‐sectional estimates is primarily due to measurement error rather than to unobserved heterogeneity. An examination of differences in returns to union membership by industry, occupation, and educational level shows that these differences are largely robust to measurement error. Many of these differences would be found even if error rates were as high as 10% or more.
The Response of Hours of Work to Increases in the Minimum Wage
Authors: Couch Kenneth A. , Wittenburg David C.
Published: July 2021

This paper examines the effect of minimum wage increases on the hours of work of teenagers (ages 16 to 19) using monthly data from the Current Population Survey. Our findings are consistent with the prediction from neoclassical theory that minimum wage increases have a negative effect on labor demand. However, the estimates we provide here for the elasticity of hours of teen labor demanded with respect to the minimum wage suggest that alternative estimates based on aggregate employment consistently understate the total impact of minimum wage increases on teenage labor utilization.
A Framework to Compare Environmental Policies
Authors: Fullerton Don
Published: July 2021

This paper builds a single model that can be used to show efficiency and distributional effects of eight different types of environmental policies (including taxes, subsidies, regulations, permits, and legal liability). All eight approaches can be designed to have the same efficiency effects, even while they have different distributional effects. For further evaluation of these policies, the paper discusses other criteria outside the simple model (including administrative efficiency, enforcement capabilities, and political feasibility). The paper ends with a discussion of likely trade‐offs among these often‐competing objectives of environmental policy.
Second‐Best Pollution Taxes and the Structure of Preferences
Authors: Cremer Helmuth , Gahvari Firouz , Ladoux Norbert
Published: July 2021

We characterize optimal taxes on polluting and nonpolluting goods in Ramsey and Mirrlees second‐best environments. The polluting good tax differs from the Pigouvian tax by Ramsey terms in the first and by Stiglitz/Mirrlees plus another adjustment term in the second. These terms can be positive, negative, or zero. If preferences are weakly separable in public and private goods, with the private good subutility weakly separable in labor and produced goods, nonpolluting goods are taxed uniformly and the concept of a tax differential between polluting and nonpolluting goods is well defined. The differential is then less than the Pigouvian tax in the Ramsey framework, but it can be greater, equal to, or smaller than the Pigouvian tax in the Mirrlees second best. In Mirrlees second best, if preferences are separable in labor supply and other goods, the second‐best tax differential is identical to the Pigouvian tax.
Aid Dependence and the Quality of Governance: Cross‐Country Empirical Tests
Authors: Knack Stephen
Published: July 2021

Aid dependence can potentially undermine the quality of governance and public sector institutions by weakening accountability, encouraging rent‐seeking and corruption, fomenting conflict over control of aid funds, siphoning off scarce talent from the bureaucracy, and alleviating pressures to reform inefficient policies and institutions. Analyses of cross‐country data in this paper provide evidence that higher aid levels erode the quality of governance, as measured by indices of bureaucratic quality, corruption, and the rule of law. These findings support the need for donors to develop less costly and less intrusive ways of disseminating state‐of‐the‐art knowledge on public sector reform in developing countries.
Jobs in the Bureaucratic Afterlife: A Corruption‐Facilitating Mechanism Associated with Law Enforcement
Authors: Cho Joonmo , Kim Iljoong
Published: July 2021

This article starts with an observation that the employment of former regulatory officers by a regulated firm might be an integral part of the corruption‐facilitating mechanism (CFM). The article hypothesizes that such employment constitutes the deferred payment for the corruption previously supplied. Although anecdotal evidence of this kind of corruption abounds, it has proven difficult to substantiate. The article provides an explanation for why this deferred payment arrangement might be attractive to both demanders and suppliers of corruption. It also offers tentative empirical support for the hypothesis that it plays a role as CFM in Korea, with the implication that this CFM hypothesis can be generalized to a host of regulatory countries.
The Property/Liability Insurance Cycle: A Comparison of Alternative Models
Authors: Choi Seungmook , Hardigree Don , Thistle Paul D.
Published: July 2021

The objective of this paper is to compare alternative models of insurance pricing as theories of the property‐liability underwriting cycle. The existing literature has focused on comparing two models, the financial pricing and capacity constraint models. However, these are not the only relevant models. We show that six alternative models imply the same general form of the pricing equation. We apply the model to data on stock property‐liability insurers for the period 1935‐1997. We find that the actuarial model and the capacity constraint hypothesis are the only theoretical models that are consistent with the data.
The Legacy of Serrano: The Impact of Mandated Equal Spending on Private School Enrollment
Authors: Husted Thomas A. , Kenny Lawrence W.
Published: July 2021

In Tiebout's idealized world, families would sort into homogeneous communities. Each family would get its preferred quality of public schools and there would be no demand for private schools. But limited public school options and a demand for religious instruction not permitted in public schools create a market for private schooling. Recently, many state governments have greatly limited districts' freedom to spend what they wish on education, often in response to court rulings to equalize education spending, such as Serrano in California. Funding equalization also affects the level of public school spending in the average state district; if this rises, as it has in many states, private schools become less attractive. Examining private school enrollment in 159 metropolitan areas in 1970, 1980, and 1990, we find that private school enrollments fall as average public spending rises and increase as public spending becomes more equal.