bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Globalização, trabalho e formação humana: notas para a problematização da educação escolar
Authors: Ferretti Celso João , Salles Fernando Casadei , González Jorge Luis Cammarano
Published: January 2017

Este escrito examina as relações entre globalização, trabalho e formação humana centrandosua atenção na compreensão das mudanças em curso no capitalismo e suas mediações comos processos constitutivos das práticas escolares formativas do indivíduo. Parte-se doentendimento da Instituição Escolar como instituição social: (a) produto e produtora dosconflitos e antagonismos subjacentes às práticas sociais centradas na relação Capital –Trabalho Assalariado – Propriedade Privada; (b) que se objetiva nas múltiplas mediaçõesentre Sociedade e Estado; (c) cuja investigação deve relevar sua objetividade social postahistoricamente no contexto das formas e dos tempos da sociedade capitalista e (d) quematerializa uma das múltiplas dimensões da reprodução social, com práticas formativasespecíficas em seus diversos níveis, cotidianamente realizadas por meio de processos degestão, ensino, avaliação, em suma, das políticas educacionais e da produção específica dacultura escolar. Ponderamos que o complexo social educação, objetiva a constituição dosujeito em determinado momento histórico, por isso, há que se estudar como se organizatal complexo, mas também, qual é a racionalidade do processo de socialização que dá ocurso do movimento desse complexo e de suas mediações com a totalidade dos complexossociais. Em outros termos, entendida em seu significado mais amplo, a educação buscaconstituir o sujeito para o momento histórico em curso. Partimos do suposto de que talenfoque contribuiria para pôr em debate o que se tem proposto para a educação nos seusmais diversos matizes e para a ampliação do entendimento que se tem das complexasrelações entre trabalho, formação humana e educação escolar com suas derivações nosprocessos de produção/apropriação de conhecimento e de institucionalização das práticasformativas.
Ensino e prudência: aspectos essenciais à ética em Santo Tomás de Aquino
Authors: Oliveira Terezinha
Published: January 2017

O objetivo deste trabalho é tecer considerações sobre o entendimento de homem, no séculoXIII, a partir do olhar de Tomás de Aquino. Neste sentido, torna-se relevante compreendera realidade histórica do autor, bem como suas proposições. Dois aspectos serão destacadosnesta análise. O primeiro vincula-se à ambiência citadina que se espelha nas corporaçõesde ofícios, sendo a Universidade uma delas. A segunda diz respeito ao conceito de pessoa econhecimento que este ambiente constrói e no qual o mestre dominicano Tomás é um deseus maiores expoentes. Para nós, estes dois ângulos se explicitam na forma como seprocessa o ensino no qual a prudência é uma de suas características vitais. Destacamos que,para o primeiro aspecto, nos basearemos na historiografia e em autores medievos e, para osegundo, nos pautaremos nas questões 47 da Suma de Teologia (IIa- IIae).
A construção sócio-política da EJA na cidade de Ponta Grossa: um olhar frente a realidade discente
Authors: Oliveira Rita de Cássia , Scortegagna Paola Andressa , Oliveira Flávia da Silva
Published: January 2017

No contexto da pós-modernidade, a educação insere-se como um poderoso instrumento deavanço social. Neste trabalho realizou-se uma reflexão sobre a EJA no Brasil. A pesquisateve como objetivos identificar as políticas públicas voltadas para EJA e o perfil dos alunosbeneficiados por esta modalidade na cidade de Ponta Grossa/Paraná. A investigação foidescritiva, interpretativa, quanti-qualitativa. Na pesquisa de campo utilizou-se questionárioaos alunos como instrumento de coleta de dados. Percebeu-se que a EJA constitui umamodalidade de educação cada vez mais reconhecida socialmente e considerada pelosalunos como possibilidade de resgate da cidadania e ascensão social e profissional.
Breves reflexões sobre as primeiras escolas normais no contexto educacional brasileiro, no século XIX
Authors: Martins Angela Maria Souza
Published: January 2017

Este trabalho investiga o processo de instituição das Escolas Normais brasileiras, no séculoXIX. Consideramos que a Escola Normal foi um ethos onde se desenvolveu uma culturapedagógica, que resulta de representações e valores, responsáveis pela construção daidentidade do professor primário brasileiro. Essa cultura pedagógica resulta do encontro dasubjetividade com a objetividade, ou seja, decorre das condições sociais, econômicas,políticas e culturais das diferentes conjunturas históricas, mas também produzrepresentações que instauram práticas e procedimentos pedagógicos que interferem narealidade social e histórica.
História e historiografia de instituições escolares
Authors: Sanfelice José Luís
Published: January 2017

O presente texto faz um breve exercício de historiografia abordando algumas tesesacadêmicas que tiveram por objeto de estudo instituições escolares. Busca apontar asdiferentes abordagens assumidas por seus autores, em especial com a indicação quefizeram ou não de suas categorias de análise. Conclui apresentando uma propostametodológica para que as pesquisas sobre história das instituições escolares primempela explicitação da tensão e do movimento contraditório entre o singular e o universal.
A concepção de gestão escolar da rede municipal de ensino do município de Vitória da Conquista: 1996 - 2005
Authors: Santos Wilson da Silva
Published: January 2017

Este artigo tem como objetivo perquirir a constituição documental da gestão escolar daRede Municipal de Ensino do Município de Vitória da Conquista no período de 1996 a2005. Partindo de uma análise documental sustentada no regimento unificado das escolasmunicipais e no estatuto do magistério do Município citado, procura-se mostrar aconcepção de gestão colegiada a partir dos conceitos autonomia e democracia. Estainvestigação se deu mediante formulações de questões analíticas e detalhamento da revisãode literatura que trata sobre a temática estudada e do referencial teórico gramsciano em quea pesquisa se apóia. Com um procedimento hermenêutico, a pesquisa concluiu que asambigüidades dos conceitos autonomia e democracia nos documentos em foco podem serressignificados através de normatizações jurídicas ou ainda pela própria contextualizaçãoda prática educativa ao longo dos anos.
O projeto pedagógico da sociedade de geografia do Rio de Janeiro: o curso superior livre de geografia (1926-1927)
Authors: Cardoso Luciene Pereira Carris
Published: January 2017

Este artigo analisa a trajetória do Curso Superior Livre de Geografia desenvolvido entre osanos de 1926 e 1927 no âmbito da Sociedade de Geografia do Rio de Janeiro, destinado àatualização de professores primários. Organizado por um corpo de especialistas de escol, oprojeto pedagógico elaborado por Everardo Backheuser e Delgado de Carvalho, constituiuum experimento de vanguarda, pois pretendia fornecer uma concepção moderna dadisciplina.
DAMPAK FLUKTUASI NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP OUTPUT DAN HARGA: PERBANDINGAN DUA REZIM NILAI TUKAR
Authors: Husman Jardine A
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on the output and price in two different regimes. The model employed distinguishes four different sources of impacts on the output and price, namely the anticipated and the un-anticipated exchange rate movement, the aggregate demand and the aggregate supply shock.The result confirms the impact of the exchange rate regime switch on how the exchange rate influences the output. The net impact of Rupiah depreciation will expand the output, indicating the dominance of the aggregate the demand shock through the competitive advantage than the aggregate supply shock through import price effect.The regime switch also alters the effectiveness of the monetary and the fiscal policy on the output. The magnitude of monetary and fiscal policy is much larger than the exchange rate impact on output, both managed and free floating regime.Keywords: exchange rate, anticipated vs. unanticipated depreciation, supply vs. demand channels.JEL Classification: F41, F43, F31
PENENTUAN BOBOT RESIKO KREDIT UNTUK RUMAH TINGGAL: STUDI KASUS DI INDONESIA
Authors: Imansyah Imansyah , Mara Mirza Yuniar Isnaeni
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the appropriateness of the basic risk weight for the fully secured residential mortgage, recommended in Basel II, to be implemented on Indonesian economy. As the supervisory authorities can customize the 35% of recommended risk weight based on the national arrangements, we analyze the practical ground of the residential mortgage in Indonesia focusing on the probability and the loss given default for this credit type.The result propose a lower risk weight for a fully secured residential mortgage risk weight. For a different types of residential mortgage, this paper suggest the use of Loan to Value (LTV) ratio to determine the risk weight. Rather than using a uniform 50% risk weight as required by the current regulation, our result recommend to give a different weight for a different LTV class; 75% weight for LTV greater than 90%, 50% for LTV between 80% to 90%, 45% for LTV between 70% to 80%, and 40% for a LTV less than 70%.However, the adoption of the proposed residential mortgage risk weight is subject to 2 strict prudential criterias; (i) the loan is used as the residence of the borrower; (ii) the loan is secured by the first lien or first legal charge on the residential property.Keywords: weight risk, bank, mortgage, default, Basel II, Indonesia.JEL Classification: E51, G21
PENGARUH EKONOMI MAKRO TERHADAP RISIKO SEKTORAL DI INDONESIA
Authors: Widodo Priyo Rokhadi , Tarsidin Tarsidin
Published: January 2017

The disintermediation of Indonesian banking is probably due to the high level of the real sector risk. This paper analyzes the profile and the dynamics of this sectoral risk established from the median of individual firm's default risks. We measure the firm's default risk with the KMV’s Expected Default Frequency (EDF). The data shows a high correlation coefficient among the sectoral risk, and through the generalized impulse response, the interrelation of the sectoral risk is revealed.The macroeconomic variables also affect the sectoral risk. The positive shock of the BI rate, the nominal exchange rate or the inflation, causes an increase of the sectoral risk. On the other hand, a positive shock of the economic growth causes a decrease on the sectoral risk.Keywords: Sectoral risk, default risk, probability to defaultJEL Classification: G30, G33
PERTUMBUHAN TFP DAN PENGEMBANGAN EFISIENSI PRODUKSI
Authors: Tjahjono Endy Dwi , Anugrah Donni Fajar
Published: January 2017

This paper investigates both the accumulation and the quality of the input factors with stochastic frontier production function model. The application of the model also enables us to predict the technical efficiency of the input factors for each province of Indonesia.The model result shows that the capital and the labor share to output are 0.4 and 0.6 respectively. In all Indonesia regions, the quality of the labor or human capital affects the output, but the effect is so small, especially in East Indonesia. Meanwhile, the quality of capital is decreasing by the time and has a negative small coefficient for all regions.The technical efficiency of all Indonesia regions has increased during the observation period. In the region side, the technical efficiency of the provinces in Sumatra has increased by the time, yet provinces in the other regions tend to decrease. Meanwhile, the technological progresses with no different among regions have a decreasing TFP trend.Keywords: Production, Capital and TFP, Model Stochastic Frontier with Panel DataJEL Classification: C33, D24
THE SPREAD COMPONENT OF THE EXCHANGE RATE: THE INDONESIAN CASE
Authors: Danila Nevi , Aryani Dwinita
Published: January 2017

Paper ini menganalisa perilaku trader yang merupakan isu utama didalam market microstucture, karena perilaku ini dapat mempengaruhi inefisiensi pasar. Perilaku ini menetukan bid-ask spread yang komponennya terdiri dari order-processing cost, adverse selection cost dan inventory holding cost. Dengan mengetahui perilaku trader dalam menentukan spread, kita akan mengetahui perilaku perubahan nilai tukar dalam jangka pendek, dimana hal ini sangat penting bagi pelaku pasar didalam menjalankan bisnisnya.Dengan menggunakan nilai tukar Rupiah terhadap US dollar, diketahui bahwa order processing cost adalah komponen spread yang paling kecil. Hal ini tidak mengejutkan karena pasar valuta asing merupakan pasar yang sangat kompetitif. Sedangkan porsi terbesar dari komponen spread adalah inventory holding cost, hal ini disebabkan karena adanya opportunity cost dan resiko perubahan kurs. Adverse selection cost adalah komponen spread terpenting kedua. Hal ini dikarenakan Bank Indonesia melakukan intervensi secara diam-diam terhadap pasar valuta asing, jika tidak maka trader akan mendapatkan informasi yang sama tentang kebijakan pemerintah atau perilaku dari makro ekonomi sebuah negara.Keywords: Foreign exchange, spread, order-processing cost, adverse selection cost, inventory holding cost.JEL Classification: F31
ANALISIS TRIWULANAN: Perkembangan Moneter, Perbankan dan Sistem Pembayaran, Triwulan III - 2007
Authors: Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan
Published: January 2017

Pada triwulan III-2007, perekonomian Indonesia diprakirakan tumbuh sebesar 6,3%. Perkembangan perekonomian Indonesia secara umum sampai dengan triwulan III-2007 masih sesuai dengan perkiraan, meskipun sempat mendapat tekanan dari sisi eksternal terkait dengan krisis Sub Prime Mortgage di Amerika Serikat. Meningkatnya konsumsi serta ekspor menjadi faktor pendorong tumbuhnya perekonomian. Sementara itu, investasi juga diperkirakan akan tumbuh lebih tinggi. Membaiknya konsumsi didorong oleh perbaikan daya beli seiring dengan peningkatan pendapatan dan tren suku bunga yang menurun. Sementara peningkatan ekspor masih didorong oleh kuatnya permintaan dan tingginya harga komoditas global. Di sisi penawaran, seiring dengan tingginya pertumbuhan konsumsi dan ekspor, sektor industri pengolahan dan sektor perdagangan diperkirakan akan mencatat pertumbuhan yang tinggi.
ANALISIS TRIWULANAN: Perkembangan Moneter, Perbankan dan Sistem Pembayaran, Triwulan IV - 2007
Authors: Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan
Published: January 2017

Ekspansi pertumbuhan ekonomi diprakirakan masih akan berlanjut di triwulan IV-2007. Pertumbuhan ekonomi secara tahunan pada triwulan IV-2007 diprakirakan akan tumbuh sebesar 6,5%.  6,5%. Meningkatnya konsumsi swasta serta ekspor menjadi faktor utama pendorong tumbuhnya perekonomian. Akselerasi pertumbuhan konsumsi swasta terutama dipengaruhi oleh perbaikan daya beli masyarakat dan membaiknya optimisme konsumen. Sementara itu, investasi juga diprakirakan akan tumbuh lebih tinggi. Meningkatnya permintaan, baik domestik maupun eksternal, merupakan faktor utama pendorong ekspansi investasi. Namun pertumbuhan investasi yang lebih tinggi terkendala oleh iklim investasi yang belum sepenuhnya kondusif dan sentimen bisnis yang belum sepenuhnya pulih. Peningkatan juga terjadi pada kinerja ekspor yang didorong oleh tingginya permintaan eksternal dan masih tingginya harga komoditas global. Di sisi penawaran, seiring dengan tingginya pertumbuhan konsumsi swasta dan ekspor, sektor industri pengolahan, sektor perdagangan serta sektor pengangkutan dan komunikasi diprakirakan akan mencatat pertumbuhan yang tinggi. Namun demikian, pada triwulan IV-2007 terdapat risiko yang dapat memperlambat pertumbuhan ekonomi yaitu berupa kenaikan harga minyak dunia dan masih berlanjutnya dampak kasus sub prime mortgage Amerika Serikat.
PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL, INVESTASI ASING, DAN EFISIENSI PEREKONOMIAN NEGARA-NEGARA ASEAN
Authors: Afin Rifai , Yulistiono Herry , Oktarani Nur Alfillail
Published: January 2017

This research analyzes the impact of the international trade and the foreign investment on the efficiency of the host country. We apply two consecutive steps on the 5 ASEAN member countries data during the period of 1995 - 2005.The first step is the estimation of the frontier model, using the Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA). The second step is the estimation of inefficiency determinacy model, covering the impact of the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI), Other Foreign Investment (OFI), Human Development Index (HDI) and the Financial Market Development (FMD). Our result shows the international trade, FMD and the 3 forms of the foreign investment are significantly affect the economic efficiency.Keywords:Efficiency, Foreign investment, Stochastic Frointier Analysis, international trade, ASEAN.JEL Classification: F14, F15
THE OPENNESS AND ITS IMPACT TO INDONESIAN ECONOMY: A STRUCTURAL VAR APPROACH
Authors: Simorangkir Iskandar
Published: January 2017

There have been long running disputes on the relationship between the degree of openness and economic performance. Based on cross-country analyses, a number of studies found that the relationship between openness and economic performance is quite mixed. Some studies discovered a positive relationship, while others found a negative or simply neutral relationship.Unlike previous studies using cross-sectional data, this study uses structural vector auto-regression (SVAR) to explore the impact of trade openness and financial openness on the Indonesian economy. The findings shows that trade openness and financial openness have negative impacts on output. The results of trade openness are quite robust; since a lack of preparation to anticipate trade openness weakens the competitiveness of Indonesian products relative to foreign products and, finally, lower output. The findings of financial openness are also robust because greater financial openness leaves the Indonesian economy more vulnerable to capital reversal, which endangers economic performance.Keywords: Openness, SVAR, forecast error variance decomposition, impulse response function.JEL Classification: F41, F43
RESPON KEBIJAKAN MONETER YANG OPTIMAL DI INDONESIA: The State-Contingent Rule?
Authors: M. Juhro Solikin
Published: January 2017

By developing a long-run macro structural model, The Structural Cointegrating Vector Autoregression (VAR), the optimality principle of monetary policy response in Indonesia is formulated. It accommodates not only long-run policy response and short-run dynamic errorcorrection mechanism, but also specific shocks emerged due to structural changes in the economy. In that context, the generated policy response basically reflects the optimal response of a “state-contingent rule”, different from common simple policy rules, such as Taylor rule and McCallum rule. This study captures several important aspects related to the implementation of “state-contingent rule” as an optimal monetary policy in Indonesia, namely: (i) the superiority of interest rate as a policy variable, or an operational target, against monetary base, (ii) the identification of monetary policy lag which is estimated averagely one-and-a half year, and (iii) the sub optimality of central bank monetary policy response, attributed by an over tight or loose policy response.JEL Classification: C32, E52Keywords: Kebijakan Moneter di Indonesia, Respon Kebijakan Moneter, Structural Cointegration Vector Autoregression(VAR).
MENGKAJI PERUBAHAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DAN PASAR SAHAM
Authors: Untoro Untoro , Widodo Priyo R.
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the relationship between the Exchange rate and the stock market in Jakarta, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippine and Hongkong using a high frequency data. We applied the Vector Autoregressive method on the daily data covering 1 July 1997 to 30 June 2006.The analysis provides several results as follows: (i) the exchange rate movements is influenced by the regional and the Hongkong stock market index, except Thailand, (ii) Jakarta stock market index is influenced by the regional stock market except Thailand, (iii) the Rupiah rate influence the regional and Hongkong stock index, (iv) the Jakarta's stock market index is integrated to the regional stock market index. These results may be a usefull as an additional guidance to evaluate the Rupiah's exchange rate and the regional stock market movement in general.JEL Classification: C32, F31, G15                 Keywords: Stock, Vector Autoregressive, exchange rate.
MEKANISME SUKU BUNGA SBI SEBAGAI SASARAN OPERASIONAL KEBIJAKAN MONETER DAN VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI INDONESIA: 1990.1 - 2007.4
Authors: Banjarnahor Nova Riana
Published: January 2017

Bank Indonesia has applied the Inflation Targeting Framework (ITF) to reach its single-final objective; stabilizing Rupiah reflected in the inflation and its exchange rate. The central bank of Indonesia uses the interest rate as his operational target to achieve the targeted inflation. Regardless of whether Bank Indonesia uses the Certificate of Bank Indonesia (SBI) or the money market rate (PUAB), on empirical ground the targeted inflation is hard to achieve.This paper analyzes the monetary policy of Bank Indonesia and its impact on macroeconomic variables. The application of Differenced Vector Autoregressive (DVAR) method shows that the monetary policy has a direct impact on the time deposit rate and an indirect impact on the exchange rate, money supply, gross domestic product and on consumer’s price index.JEL Classification: C32, E52, E58Keywords: SBI Interest Rate Mechanism, DVAR, IRF, FEVD
PERILAKU PERMINTAAN UANG DALAM SISTEM MONETER GANDA DI INDONESIA
Authors: Ascarya Ascarya , Hasanah Heni , Achsani Noer Azam
Published: January 2017

The cotemporary dual monetary system is characterized by an interest system in conventional system and the profit-and-loss sharing (PLS) system in Islamic system, where each of them has a different behavior in influencing the money demand and the monetary stability. This study analyses the components of money demand under both the conventional and Islamic financial system in Indonesia, using a Vector Auto Regression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) methods.The results show that in Islamic system, PLS return negatively correlated with all Islamic demand for money components (currency, Wadiah demand deposit, Mudharabah saving deposit, and Mudharabah time deposit). While in conventional system, interest is negatively correlated with the demand for currency, the demand deposit, and the saving deposit, but positively correlated with the demand for time deposit. The Islamic demand for money stabilizes quiclier to respons the shock from other variables compare to conventional system. Moreover, the interest rate contributes 20%-29% in the conventional demand for money variation, while in PLS system the return almost has no role on Islamic money demand variation. Our research also shows that the savings deposits in Indonesia have the characteristics of the demand deposits, hence preferably included in M1 instead of in M2.These findings suggest the monetary authority to gradually shift their mindset from the conventional monetary operation to the dual monetary operation and explore further the possibility of using PLS return as the “policy rate” benchmark to achieve the principal objectives in maximizing distributive social welfare and justice, as well as minimizing inefficiency.JEL Classification: C32, E31, E41, E52Keywords: Permintaan Uang Konvensional, Permintaan Uang Islam, Sistem Keuangan/Perbankan Ganda, VAR/VECM
ANALISIS TRIWULANAN: Perkembangan Moneter, Perbankan dan Sistem Pembayaran, Triwulan III 2008
Authors: Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan
Published: January 2017

Tekanan inflasi di Indonesia pada triwulan III-2008 masih tinggi. Hal ini terutama berasal dari tingginya ekspektasi inflasi masyarakat, kuatnya permintaan domestik, serta dampak imported inflationterkait dengan potensi pelemahan nilai tukar rupiah sebagai akibat dari krisis keuangan di AS. Menyikapi perkembangan tersebut, pada tataran kebijakan, Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia memandang perlu untuk mengendalikan tekanan inflasi guna mencapai sasaran inflasi dalam jangka menengah dan menjaga kestabilan ekonomi pada umumnya.
COMPARING THE EFFICIENCY OF ISLAMIC BANKS IN MALAYSIA AND INDONESIA
Authors: Ascarya Ascarya , Yumanita Diana
Published: January 2017

This study measures and compares the efficiency of Islamic banks in Malaysia and Indonesia using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), which is a non-parametric and deterministic methodology for determining the relative efficiency. The intermediation approach will be applied.This study identifies the sources and the level of inefficiency of the inputs and outputs. The results show that the Islamic banking in Indonesia is more efficient than the one in Malaysia in all three measurements; the technical, the scale, and the overall efficiency. Technically, financing is one of the sources of inefficiency in Malaysia, while human resource is one of the sources of inefficiency in Indonesia.Islamic windows should be encouraged to convert to subsidiaries or Islamic full branches to improve the scale and the overall efficiencies in Malaysia. Furthermore, the accelerated expansion both organically and inorganically is needed to improve the scale and the overall efficiencies of the Islamic banking in Indonesia.JEL Classification: C14, G21, G28Keywords: Islamic banking, performance, efficiency, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA).
KEMISKINAN DI INDONESIA: PENGARUH PERTUMBUHAN DAN PERUBAHAN STRUKTUR EKONOMI
Authors: Suselo Sri Liani , Tarsidin Tarsidin
Published: January 2017

Poverty level of Indonesia remains high while the economy experiences relatively high and steady growth. The asymmetry is investigated, probing the poverty and economic growth-structure linkages at sectoral level. The result shows that agriculture sector is the highest contributors of poverty at almost all regions. It is also the most responsive sector, with its high growth elasticity of poverty reduction. On the other hand economic structure seems to have varying impacts on poverty at sectoral level.JEL Classification: O10, O49Keywords:Poverty, economic growth, structure, sectoral level.
ANALISIS TRIWULANAN: Perkembangan Moneter, Perbankan dan Sistem Pembayaran, Triwulan I – 2009
Authors: Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan
Published: January 2017

Terus memburuknya perekonomian global semakin dirasakan dampaknya pada perekonomian domestik selama triwulan I-2009. Hal tersebut mengakibatkan perekonomian Indonesia diperkirakan tumbuh lebih lambat dari perkiraan. Perlambatan tersebut selain disebabkan oleh kinerja ekspor yang turun, juga dikarenakan mulai melemahnya daya beli masyarakat. Meski demikian, berlangsungnya aktivitas ekonomi selama dilakukannya pesta demokrasi dalam rangka Pemilihan Umum, diperkirakan mampu menahan lebih jauh perlambatan ekonomi domestik. Ke depan, pada tahun 2009 perekonomian masih dihadapkan pada ketidakpastian pemulihan ekonomi global sehingga perekonomian Indonesia diperkirakan tumbuh lebih rendah dari yang diperkirakan pada awal tahun sebesar 4,0-5,0%. Dengan mempertimbangkan perkembangan dan prospek perekonomian tersebut, pada April 2009, Bank Indonesia kembali menurunkan BI Rate sebesar 25 bps menjadi 7,5%. Penurunan BI Rate ini adalah kali kelima sejak Desember 2008. Secara akumulatif (Des 08-April 09), BI Rate telah turun sebesar 175 bps.
PENGANGGURAN STRUKTURAL: FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI DAN DINAMIKANYA
Authors: Tarsidin Tarsidin
Published: January 2017

This paper investigates the persistence of unemployment in Indonesia, by decomposing unemployment into structural and cyclical unemployment and exploring its determinants and dynamics. The result shows that currently Indonesia is experiencing structural unemployment, which is caused by structural change of Indonesian economy. Factors contributing to the structural unemployment include sectoral labor productivity and sectoral real wage, beside specific skill required by the sectors. The study reveals the need for a good economic planning to avoid unemployment in the future.JEL Classification: J21, J23, J31Keywords: Structural unemployment, labor productivity, real wage
ANALISIS KETERKAITAN HARGA ANTAR KELOMPOK KOMODITAS PEMBENTUK INFLASI DI SUMATERA BARAT
Authors: Ramadhan Gaffari
Published: January 2017

This study analyzes the correlation and the interaction among commodity groups which determine the inflation rate in West Sumatera. Using the monthly data from January 2002 to December 2008, the estimation applies the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) in order to analyze the dynamics of commodity prices in the model.The results show some groups have significant contributions in determining other group prices. We found that the volatility of Prepared Food, Drink, Cigarette, and Tobacco is affected by Food group, Transportation, Communication and Financial Services. All commodity group is mostly affected by its own movement, especially for the high regulated prices group; Water, Electricity, and Fuel group including Housing.This paper underlines that in controlling regional inflation, the partial effort by focusing only on the basket goods which gives the highest contribution to the regional inflation (i.e. foodstuff and prepared food) is not effective when the region faces high volatility in other basket goods (i.e. transportation). The price determining of basket goods is a simultaneous process, and controlling the regional inflation needs greater concern to all goods. The government intervention on the price setting is also one of the important parts in causing the volatility of the basket goods.JEL Classification: C32, E31, R10.Keywords: Consumer Price Index, regional inflation, vector error corection model, impulse response, variance decomposition.
WILL CREATING NEW REGIONS IMPROVE THE REGIONAL WELFARE EQUALITY?
Authors: Brata Aloysius Gunadi
Published: January 2017

This paper presents a preliminary effort to analyze the relationship between the region creation (pemekaran) and the regional inequality. Using the variation in the Human Development Index (HDI) that has been widely accepted as a measure of human development, this paper confirmed that pemekaran or creation of new regions have caused regional inequality becoming more severe.A ‘damaging power’ of pemekaran has also reduced the benefit of decentralization to improve regional equality. Since the analysis shows that pemekaran is not a solution for regional inequality, therefore the policy implication of this finding is that pemekaran should be controlled. A reverse process of pemekaran is amalgamation or consolidation of regions. However this policy is rather difficult to be implemented because it is mainly related to resistance of local elites and furthermore there is no guarantee that the amalgamation will improve quality of public services. Perhaps moratorium of pemekaran as a moderate choice could be an acceptable policy.JEL Classification: H75, R11, R58Keywords: region creation, human development index, inequality.
ANALISIS TRIWULANAN: Perkembangan Moneter, Perbankan dan Sistem Pembayaran, Triwulan I - 2009
Authors: Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan
Published: January 2017

Terus memburuknya perekonomian global semakin dirasakan dampaknya pada perekonomian domestik selama triwulan I-2009. Hal tersebut mengakibatkan perekonomian Indonesia diperkirakan tumbuh lebih lambat dari perkiraan. Perlambatan tersebut selain disebabkan oleh kinerja ekspor yang turun, juga dikarenakan mulai melemahnya daya beli masyarakat. Meski demikian, berlangsungnya aktivitas ekonomi selama dilakukannya pesta demokrasi dalam rangka Pemilihan Umum, diperkirakan mampu menahan lebih jauh perlambatan ekonomi domestik. Ke depan, pada tahun 2009 perekonomian masih dihadapkan pada ketidakpastian pemulihan ekonomi global sehingga perekonomian Indonesia diperkirakan tumbuh lebih rendah dari yang diperkirakan pada awal tahun sebesar 4,0-5,0%. Dengan mempertimbangkan perkembangan dan prospek perekonomian tersebut, pada April 2009, Bank Indonesia kembali menurunkan BI Rate sebesar 25 bps menjadi 7,5%. Penurunan BI Rate ini adalah kali kelima sejak Desember 2008. Secara akumulatif (Des 08-April 09), BI Rate telah turun sebesar 175 bps.
DAMPAK KRISIS GLOBAL TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN DAERAH: APLIKASI MODEL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM DI MALUKU
Authors: Parewangi Andi M. Alfian
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the global crisis impact on regional economy in Indonesia. Using the multiregion and multi-sector Computable General Equilibrium model, the result shows the magnitude of the impact depends on each provincial global shock exposure. In general, the capital intensive and the tradable sector face higher activity reduction.A specific simulation is designed for Province Maluku. The result shows that an increase of labour productivity is capable to reduce the global crisis impact and increase the production activity hence the labour participation. However, the increase of the aggregate demand in Province Maluku has put a higher inflation pressure mainly for the commodities supplied from other provinces. This requires a higher effort of the provincial government of Maluku to increase their sectoral capacity utilization.JEL Classification: C68, E27, R13Keywords: Global crisis, regional, Computable General Equilibrium, Maluku.
DAMPAK PENINGKATAN PEMBAYARAN NON-TUNAI TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN DAN IMPLIKASINYA TERHADAP PENGENDALIAN MONETER DI INDONESIA
Authors: Syarifuddin Ferry , Hidayat Ahmad , Tarsidin Tarsidin
Published: January 2017

Non-cash payments have been increasing significantly, followed by its substitution and efficiency effects. Cash payment is substituted, inducing decrease of cash holding by economic agents, while on the other hand more money enters the banking system. The increase of non-cash payments also cuts transaction costs, and the economy runs more efficiently.Using Structural Cointegrating VAR, its impacts on the economy are investigated. The result shows that cash holding decrease, while money stock M1 and M2 increase. The increase of non-cash payments also induces GDP growth and slight price decrease. Its implication to monetary policy is also analyzed, showing decrease of BI rate and monetary policy cost.JEL Classification: E41, E51, E58Keywords: non-cash, payment system, money demand
PEMODELAN KURVA IMBAL HASIL OBLIGASI KORPORASI RATING AA DAN A DENGAN NELSON SIEGEL SVENSSON DAN CUBIC SPLINE SMOOTHING
Authors: Permatasari Denny , Iriawan Nur
Published: January 2017

Bond is one of commercial instrument that influence economic sector in Indonesia. Bond transaction can't be made in the market directly, but it has been traded through securities. On average, there are only few bond transactions with the various market prices. Benchmarking is, therefore, needed to be created to determining bond price through yield curve. Through yield curve, the relation between yield of bond with same credit risk (rating) and different time to maturity can be seen. This research is conducted by employing time to maturity to model the yield of some selected corporate bonds with rating of AA and A. Two methods, Nelson Siegel Svensson (NSS) method couple with Levenberg-Marquardt optimization and Cubic Spline Smoothing (CSS) are employed here. These two methods have been applied to data from Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) ranging September to November 2008. The results show that CSS give smallest RMSE and MAE. In contrast, Nelson Siegel Svensson reports a model which more parsimony, more easily to be explained, and more adaptable to keep upfoward maturity than CSS. This research takes into account that NSS is better to be to model corporate bonds yield curve than CSS. Another importance conclusion that can be gather is that corporate bonds (with rating of AA and A) yield are hang about under IGSYC in certain period. Its means, that corporate bond market in Indonesia is not good for investment comparing to government bond.
FINANCIAL CRISIS IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD - POST THE US "ASSET PRICE BUBBLE DEBACLE" - A NEW WAY FORWARD
Authors: Chakraborty Ms. Sagarika , Banerjee Mr. Soumya
Published: January 2017

This paper analyze how we should respond to possible asset price bubbles, especially in view of the various conceptual frameworks proposed based on a core set of scientific principles for monetary policy. Further, efforts have also been made at my end to establish as to how Monetary policy should not react to asset price bubbles per se, but rather to changes in the outlook for inflation and aggregate demand resulting from asset price movements. However, regulatory policies and supervisory practices should respond to possible asset price bubbles and help prevent feedback loops between asset price bubbles and credit provision, thereby minimizing the damaging effects of bubbles on the economy.The general massage of this paper is that credit conditions influence economies enormously and emergency steps to restructure balance sheets through policy revamping are crucial for fixing problems of excessive leverage. This stands in sharp contrast to the view from conventional models - that 'the effects of a worsening of financial intermediation are likely to be limited' and can be handled by interest rate cuts alone.In the alternative regulatory policy approach, we have strived to examine three possible regulatory responses to managing bubbles: portfolio restrictions; adjustments in capital requirements; and adjustments in provisioning requirements.JEL Classification: E58, E63, G15Keywords:financial crisis, asset price bubble.
DETERMINANT OF SUKUK RATINGS
Authors: Arundina Tika , Omar Dato’ Mohd. Azmi
Published: January 2017

With the development of sukuk market as the Islamic alternatives of the existing bond market, the issue of how to assign a rating to the sukuk issuance rises. This study tries to provide an empirical foundation for the investors to estimate the ratings assign. Using approach from several rating agencies, past researches on bond ratings, financial distress prediction and bankruptcy prediction models, this study is trying to innovate a new model on determining the sukuk ratings. It used Multinomial Logit regression to create a model of rating probability from several theoretical variables, ie. firm size, leverage, profitability, fixed payment coverage, reputation and existence of guarantor. The result shows 80% of all valid cases are correctly classified into their original rating classes.JEL Classification: C35, E43, P43Keywords: Sukuk, rating.
QUARTERLY ANALYSIS: The Progress of Monetary, Banking and Payment System Quarter 3, 2009
Authors: Bank Indonesia Quarterly Report Team
Published: January 2017

The development of global economy, which tends to recover, has provided good impacts to the domestic economy. Indonesia»s economy has potentials to grow better than the early estimate, both for the year of 2009 and for the year of 2010.In 2009, Indonesia»s economy was estimated to grow 4.0-4.5%, or higher than the previous estimate, which was 3.5-4.0%. Meanwhile, for 2010, the economic growth is estimated to reach 5.0-5.5%.
FINANCIAL CRISIS, IMF, AND BANK EFFICIENCY: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM THE ASEAN-4 BANKING SECTORS
Authors: Sufian Fadzlan , Habibullah Muzafar Shah
Published: January 2017

Despite its severity and deep influence on both the real and financial sectors, empirical evidence on the evolution of the performance of the ASEAN-4 banking sectors since the 1997-1998 Asian financial crisis is relatively scarce. By employing the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach the present study examines for the first time the impact of the Asian financial crisis on the efficiency of the ASEAN-4 countries banking sectors. This study focuses on two major approaches vis. intermediation and revenue approaches. The empirical findings suggest that the estimates of technical efficiency are consistently higher under the revenue approach. We find that banks are relatively inefficient in a more concentrated banking market. However, when we control for countries that participate in IMF program, the concentration ratio exhibits a positive relationship with bank efficiency levels, implying that the more concentrated banking system which participates in IMF program is relatively more efficient in their intermediation function during the post crisis period. Keywords: Efficiency, DEA, ASEAN, Regression.JEL Classification: G21; G28
STRATEGY ON REDUCING UNEMPLOYMENT PERSISTENCE: A MICRO ANALYSIS IN INDONESIA
Authors: Soekarni Mulyana , Sugema Iman , Widodo Priyo R.
Published: January 2017

This study has three main objectives namely: (1) examine the existence of the persistence of unemployment in Indonesia; (2) examine the factors that cause the persistence of unemployment in Indonesia and in some sample areas, and (3) formulate strategies and policy measures needed to reduce the level of unemployment.To achieve these objectives the activities we do is an empirical analysis through the modeling of Econometrics, unemployment accounting, and descriptive statistics. Meanwhile, the data used are secondary data and regional macroeconomic and primary data collected through interviews with workers, the unemployed, firms, bureaucrats, and unions.The study concludes that the persistence of unemployment in Indonesia is disequilibrium persistent unemployment without self correcting mechanism, which means that the persistence occurred outside the labor market equilibrium and has no automatic mechanism to get to the point of equilibrium. In addition, persistence is the result of the slow process of capital accumulation, wage rigidity, the length of job search, and the inertia caused by institutional factors of labor market.The main implication of this study are: (1) the need to improve the quality of growth through hands-on strategy; (2) banking policy and capital markets can lead to acceleration of capital accumulation; (3) monetary policy is more focused on inflation targeting, (4) increased total factor productivity; (5) special incentives for labor-intensive sectors; (6) strengthening vocational education, and (7) antiunemployment programs that are regionally specific.Keywords: Persistent unemployment, Disequilibrium, Wage rigidity, Job search, Indonesia.JEL Classification: J23, J31
META-ANALYSIS ON THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF OUTPUT IN A MONETARY UNION
Authors: Ridhwan MHA.
Published: January 2017

The regional impact of the monetary policy has been a crucial issue especially on its distributional impact. Using Meta-Analysis, this paper run a quantitative survey on previous studies to explain the asymmetric impact of national policy on economic growth across region. Based on selected criteria we have similar researches on sample data; mainly they used VAR method.Our model estimation shows the significant and importance of capital intensity degree, the financial depth and several macroeconomic indicators in explaining the different result across region and period of these studies. In general our finding confirms the robustness of their result.Keywords: Monetary union, output, Meta-AnalysisJEL classification. E52, R11, C83
EXPORT BEHAVIOUR OF MANUFACTURING FIRMS IN INDONESIA, 1990-2000
Authors: Sahminan Sahminan , Kurniati Yati
Published: January 2017

This paper examines export behaviour of manufacturing firms in Indonesia. We use firm-level data from survey of medium and large Indonesian manufacturing industries over the period 1990-2000. Using panel data regression technique, we find the following regularities. First, there is a persistency in the firm’s decision to export as well as proportion of exported output. Second, higher wage, larger number of production employment, higher productivity and higher share of foreign ownership lead to higher probability of a firm to export. Third, higher wage leads to higher proportion of exported output. However, higher productivity or higher share of foreign ownership leads to lower proportion of exported output. Fourth, while real exchange rate does not significantly affect the probability of firms to export, it significantly affects the proportion of exported output. Fifth, both probability to export and proportion of exported output was significantly much lower during the 1997/1998’s Asian crisis. Finally, looking at the export behaviour across industries, the estimation results show that there is a variation of export behavior across industries.Keywords: Export, manufacture, Indonesia.JEL Classification: F14, F13, D21
EFFECTS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND DYNAMICS TO RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
Authors: Sugeng Sugeng , Nugroho M. Noor , Ibrahim Ibrahim , Yanfitri Yanfitri
Published: January 2017

This study examines the influence of forex demand and supply interaction on Rupiah's exchange rate. Estimation results show that the movement of rupiah is influenced by the forex supply and demand, where the foreign players are dominating. Furthermore, the demand and supply of foreign exchange is asymmetric.This paper also shows the impact of exchange rate movements on output is only in the short term with a more significant influence to the import, while the depreciation of Rupiah has a larger impact than its appreciation.Keywords:Foreign exchange, inflation, exchange rate.JEL Classification: E31, F31
THE IMPACT OF FISCAL POLICY TOWARD ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE AND POVERTY RATE IN INDONESIA
Authors: Maipita Indra , Dan Jantan Mohd. , Razak Nor Azam Abdul
Published: January 2017

The government is continuously formulating some policies in order to boast economic growth and downsize poverty rate. However, the government is facing some obstacles such as an increasingly in budget deficit which is potentially impacting to the determining of priority scale as well as the pro and contra within it. Based on that consideration, economic policy is needed to be revised and redesigned in order to meet the need of pro growth, pro job, and pro poor. Generally, this research aims to examine the impact of an expansion and contraction of fiscal policy measures on Indonesia economic performance. For the purpose of this study, the change of macro economic indicators, economic sector performance, and the change of poverty and income distribution are examined using the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. In order to evaluate the disparity of income distribution, beta distribution function is used which is adopted from Decaluwe, et al. (1999). This study employs Foster, Greer, and Thorbecke (F-G-T) and Cockburn (2001) methods to evaluate poverty (poverty incidence) on each household group. The results of this study show that the impact of an increase in subsidy is more favourable than two others fiscal policy measures. Even though the policy of transfer income gives a positive impact for the upsizing of rural household income and the downsizing in poverty, but on the other hand it has negative impact on others household income which aggregately has a negative impact on the decreasing of GDP. JEL Classification: I32, E62.Keywords: fiscal policy, poverty, income distribution
INVESTMENT DECISION AND FINANCIAL CONSTRAINTS: EMPIRICAL STUDY ON INDONESIAN STOCK EXCHANGE
Authors: Hidayat Riskin
Published: January 2017

This research aims to test the sensitivity level of liquidity and invesment opportunity to invesment decision between non-financially constrained and financially constrained firms. Sample in this research is the firm of non finance which enlist in Indonesia Stock Exchange from period 2003 to 2007, obtained sample 136 firms with 680 observations. Result of research refer that liquidity and invesment opportunity have an influence on positive to invesment decision. Liquidity is more sensitive to invesment decision for financially constrained firms. Invesment opportunity is more sensitive to invesment decision for non financially constrainedJEL Classification: E22, G32, O16.Key words: Investment decision, liquidity, financially constraint.