Identification of scenarios for the restoration of the economic potential of milk-producing enterprises in the conditions of martial law and post-war recovery
Authors: Krasnorutskyy Oleksiy ,   Livestock Farming Institute of National Academy of Agrarian Sciences of Ukraine, Marenych Tetiana , Krichfalushii-Stepanova Kristina , Bohdaniuk Ihor 
Published: August 2024

The article presents the research results on the justification of recovery scenarios and effective mobilization of the economic potential of milk-producing enterprises located in the de-occupied territories. An analysis of the activities of agricultural enterprises in wartime is presented. Statistical data have shown that the agricultural sector maintains a leading position in the economy despite commodity producers’ direct and indirect losses due to military operations. Despite the continuation of the war, the demining of agricultural lands, infrastructure facilities of the agrarian sector, and territories of private farms, determination of the damage caused, and initiation of reclamation of lands affected by hostilities were recognized as the first tasks. It was noted that the scenario approach is an essential tool for governing bodies, which helps to make decisions regarding the socio-economic development of society at the national or regional levels and at the individual branches of production or enterprises. The central aspect of the scenario approach is the justification of decision options, which are based on complex thinking, empirical assumptions, and expert conclusions. The advantages of scenario planning include the ability, at the enterprise level, to identify key internal and external factors that will contribute to business development and to develop strategies for each variant of future developments; the response time for adapting to using new opportunities and minimizing threats is significantly reduced. It was concluded that the “cone of plausibility” technique is relatively simple to use in scenario planning. A SWOT matrix was formed, which provides interested persons with a structured information field regarding the possibilities of post-war restoration of the economic potential of milk-producing enterprises, within which they can strategically orient themselves and make more informed management decisions. Applying the methodology of scenario planning and SWOT analysis made it possible to build a group of four scenarios (pessimistic, realistic, optimistic, crisis) of restoring the economic potential of milk-producing enterprises located in the de-occupied territories. The proposed scenarios differ in potential development, the primary sources of investment resources, and the strategic goal of potential restoration, and they depend on the state of the existing material and technical base and agricultural land at the enterprise. An optimistic scenario, which foresees a rapid increase in the volume of high-quality products produced according to EU standards, restoration of the animal population under the condition of rapid integration into the European Union by involving the latest technologies both for the high-quality reconstruction of the destroyed production infrastructure and for the modernization of the livestock industry and the agricultural sector in general, based on the principles of sustainable development and taking into account the European Green Course, it can take place due to adequate financing from the state budget and full donor support. Constructed scenarios for restoring the economic potential of agricultural enterprises can be used by decision-makers at the level of the state, regions, and farms to develop rational policies and constructive plans for socio-economic development at different levels of management. It is claimed that it is possible to eliminate the mentioned risks and threats of conducting economic activities in the countryside thanks to the formation and consistent implementation of a new post-war model of the development of the agricultural sector with a balance of its economic and ecological components, which will allow to launch the mechanisms of preserving the economic potential and restoring the economy in the conditions of martial law. The correspondence between the scenarios of restoration and development of economic potential and types of potential of agricultural enterprises is revealed. Variants of combinations of scenarios for the restoration of economic potential and strategies for the development of milk-producing enterprises are presented. Keywords: scenarios, the economic potential of the enterprise, strategy, efficiency, management, dairy farming.