bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Breaking the Line: New Literacies, Postmodernism and the Teaching of Printed Texts
Authors: Coles Martin , Hall Christine
Published: March 2003

In many contemporary texts boundaries are broken down. Words and image convey multiple meanings, lending themselves to postmodern readings, in the sense that they encourage readings that reject a single interpretation and instead hold in suspense the possibility of multiple readings co‐existing. This article explores how these texts allow the consumer/reader the opportunity to actively engage, and in a sense therefore to produce, the cultural event rather than being merely the passive receiver of it. It raises implications for the way that such texts are considered in schools.
Writing: the state of the state vs. the state of the art in English and American schools
Authors: Messenheimer Trinka , Packwood Angela
Published: March 2003

Based on work undertaken in a joint international project focusing on the process and teaching of writing in English/US classrooms, this article looks at the impact government initiatives on assessment and accountability have on classroom practices and the process of writing. These initiatives are encoded in the Standard Assessment Tasks (SATs) in England and the Proficiency Tests in the US. The first year of the project has gathered and analyzed data from a longitudinal study of writing in the US, focused on the state of Ohio, and a series of contrasting case studies in England.
English spelling and its contribution to illiteracy: word difficulty for common English words
Authors: Spencer Ken
Published: March 2003

Writing like all technologies can be implemented in different ways with varying efficiencies. It is often not recognised that the written form of English is at variance with a majority of other alphabetic scripts and is increasingly being seen as a contributing factor to illiteracy in the English‐speaking world.

The predictive spelling and reading model developed at Hull University indicates that the contributing factors making English words difficult for children to spell are: word frequency, length and phoneticity. This paper, using the most frequent 150 words in the English language, confirms results from earlier studies and clearly links word characteristics to literacy failure. The impact of obscure forms of phoneme representation is shown to be particularly noticeable with less able children. This unnecessary burden placed on young children is not present in most European languages which have more regular written forms than English. The implications from this and previous studies are related to the teaching of English literacy skills.
Democracy, Participation, and Economic Development: An Introduction
Authors: Rivera‐Batiz Francisco L. , Rivera‐Batiz Luis A.
Published: March 2003

This introduction to a special issue of the Review of Development Economics provides a contextual setting to a collection of articles that originated in a conference on “Democracy, Participation, and Development” that was sponsored by the Program in Economic Policy Management (PEPM) at Columbia University in April 1999.
Forward Speculation, Excess Returns, and Exchange Rate Variability: The Role of Risk Premiums
Authors: Dibooğlu Selahattin
Published: March 2003

The paper reconsiders the unbiasedness hypothesis in the foreign exchange market. Within the context of a conventional model of exchange rates, risk premium shocks are constrained to have no permanent effects on the spot rate. Using monthly data from the post‐floating period, the paper estimates risk premiums for the dollar rates of the yen, mark, and pound. Risk premium innovations seem to explain a modest proportion of short‐term variability of exchange rate changes and excess returns. However, risk premiums may explain serial correlations in excess returns.
Income Tax, Property Tax, and Tariff in a Small Open Economy
Authors: Leung Charles Ka Yui
Published: March 2003

Why do some countries enjoy high economic growth rates while some suffer in “low‐growth traps”? Why are tax policies in different countries so different? Some suggest that it is exactly these differences in government policies which contribute to the difference in economic growth rates. This paper considers a small open economy which sustains its economic growth by adopting new technologies. When the value of initial wealth is “relatively small,” policies which promote growth most result in the highest welfare. In other cases, policies that discourage growth most may be welfare‐maximizing.
Inflationary Finance, Capital Controls, and Currency Substitution
Authors: Tandon Ajay , Wang Yong
Published: March 2003

This paper studies currency substitution in an environment where agents’ inflation tax‐evasive demand for foreign money is balanced by the concern for the possibility that the government may impose economy‐wide capital controls under which foreign currency transactions are costly. Under the assumption of endogenous beliefs, the results show a persistent demand for foreign money despite efforts by the government to reduce inflation. In addition, the economy can exhibit multiple, Pareto‐ranked steady states with different levels of currency substitution. The stability analysis suggests that the economy converges to the inferior steady state, on the “wrong side” of the Laffer curve.
Trade and Wages When the Trade Regime is Determined Endogenously
Authors: Naylor Robin
Published: March 2003

The paper shows that whether trade is one‐way or two‐way depends on wage strategies adopted by trade unions. The union’s wage strategy choices themselves depend upon the conditions under which trade takes place, as well as upon the characteristics of both the labor and the product markets in the trading countries. Thus, trade and labor market outcomes are determined endogenously. Testable hypotheses are generated, and the implications of the theoretical model for the econometric analysis of trade and wages are discussed.
Understanding the Welfare Implications of Preferential Trade Agreements
Authors: Ayhan Kose M. , Riezman Raymond
Published: March 2003

This paper examines various implications of preferential trade agreements, namely customs unions and free trade areas, in the context of a multicountry general equilibrium model. The model is calibrated to represent countries with symmetric endowments, and aggregate and disaggregate welfare change measures are used to quantify the welfare effects of preferential trade agreements. It is found that free trade areas are better than customs unions on welfare grounds for the world as a whole. Welfare decompositions suggest that a significant fraction of the welfare changes is explained by the volume‐of‐trade effect for both types of preferential trade agreements.
Commitment to Rules on Investment: The Developing Countries’ Stake
Authors: Markusen James R.
Published: March 2003

This study examines foreign direct investment into developing countries, and the stake those countries have in liberalizing or restricting these long‐term investments. Of particular interest is the stake the developing countries might have in committing to codes or multilateral agreements on investments. Clear advantages to commitment are identified, involving attracting investments that would not occur otherwise. But disadvantages are also identified, involving the possible loss of rents to host countries that might have been captured in the absence of binding codes.
Factor‐Market Distortions, Dynamic Stability, and Paradoxical Comparative Statics
Authors: Kemp Murray C. , Yamada Masatoshi
Published: March 2003

In the late 1960s and early 1970s there was a strong revival of interest in the role of factor‐market distortions in those branches of our subject which rely on the Lerner–Samuelson two‐by‐two model of production. Among the legacies from that period were several comparative statical propositions which seemed counterintuitive or paradoxical. However, the revival lost momentum when confronted with Neary’s observation that the major paradoxes are associated with unstable equilibria and therefore rarely observed. On the other hand, there are now seen to be several errors in Neary’s analysis. For example, in the important case of a closed economy (and, by interpretation, in the case of a large open economy) he overlooked the fact that paradoxes can be associated with stable equilibria.
The Asian Currency Crises: Vulnerability, Contagion, or Unsustainability
Authors: Cartapanis André , Dropsy Vincent , Mametz Sophie
Published: March 2003

The Asian currency crises have been introduced by many economists as evidence that almost any country could be vulnerable to speculative attacks and to contagion effects, even with apparently good economic fundamentals. These financial crises have also been interpreted by other economists as rational market reactions to the unsustainability of domestic macroeconomic policies or structural weaknesses. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the relative importance of macroeconomic unsustainability, financial vulnerability, and crisis contagion in a model that explains and predicts the Asian currency crises. Out‐of‐sample forecasts based on two‐stage panel and logit regressions provide evidence of a pure contagion effect, which significantly worsened the crises. They also show that Indonesia was the only one of the six Asian nations examined (India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, South Korea, Thailand) that was in an unsustainable economic situation, and that the other five nations were only vulnerable to a currency crisis.
Out of Africa? Using the Past to Project African Emigration Pressure in the Future
Authors: Hatton Timothy J , Williamson Jeffrey G
Published: March 2003

The paper uses analysis of the mass emigration from poor Europe in the late nineteenth century to project the future mass emigration potential from Africa, especially to the economically more mature Mediterranean economies. The economic and demographic fundamentals driving both experiences are likely to be the same, but their magnitudes are likely to be far bigger in the African case over the next few decades. Efforts to restrict the migration and to seal porous borders may be partially successful; but, if so, they are certain to create unpleasant side–effects. European restrictions will create a greater share of illegals and thus greater absorption problems in recipient nations: European restrictions will create more poverty in African sending regions. And European restrictions will create considerable diplomatic problems between the two regions.
Foreign Competition and Wage Inequality
Authors: Neary J.Peter
Published: March 2003

The author argues that increased foreign competition can affect technical choice and skill differentials even when actual imports do not rise significantly. A model is presented of general oligopolistic equilibrium (GOLE) in which a reduction in import barriers (whether technological or policy–imposed) encourages more strategic investment by incumbent firms. The predictions accord with many of the stylized facts: higher skill premia; higher ratios of skilled to unskilled workers employed in all sectors and throughout the economy; little change in import volumes or prices; and rapid technological progress with rather little change in total factor productivity.
The Risk Premium, Exchange Rate Expectations, and the Forward Exchange Rate: Estimates for the Yen–Dollar Rate
Authors: Landon Stuart , Smith Constance E.
Published: March 2003

The hypothesis that the forward rate is an unbiased predictor of the future spot rate has been rejected in many empirical studies. The rejection of this hypothesis could occur because market behavior is inconsistent with rational–expectations or because there exists a risk premium. Equations describing the forward premium and the change in the exchange rate are estimated jointly, and tests of both the rational–expectations and no–risk–premium hypotheses are conducted. Empirical estimates, obtained using quarterly data for the yen–dollar exchange rate, reject the rational–expectations hypothesis and suggest that there exists a time–varying risk premium.
On the Regional Dimensions of Rostow's Theory of Growth
Authors: Parr John B.
Published: March 2003

Rostow's approach to economic development, summarized in The Stages of Economic Growth, involved an economy passing through a sequence of well‐defined stages. This theory of growth was primarily concerned with the national economy. There were, however, more than a few references to regions, although these were not elaborated upon or explored in detail. The concern here is with examining the possibility that the Rostow analysis might also have a relevance at the sub‐national or regional scale. This possibility is considered in terms of three distinct perspectives: the regional (where the emphasis is on the individual region, with no attention given to the rest of the nation); the multiregional (the focus being on the various regions that comprise the nation); and the interregional (which examines the economic relations among regions within a nation).
An Empirical Model of Urban Spatial Development
Authors: Ding Chengri
Published: March 2003

This paper examines land development patterns by using an integrated approach that combines Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and spatial econometric models. It presents evidence that land development sites are affected by each other, and that any attempt to analyze the land development process without consideration of spatial dependence will most likely yield biased parameter estimates, misleading significant levels, and insufficient estimates of the dependent variable. It is found that spatial lagged variables not only improve model performance substantially, but also reveal the presence of clustering land development. This paper demonstrates that incorporation of spatial statistics is made easier with the application of GIS.
The Lowry Model Revisited: Incorporating a Multizonal Input‐Output Model into an Urban Land Use Allocation Model
Authors: Jun Myung‐jin , Moore James E.
Published: March 2003

This paper formulates a new generation of Lowry‐style models that combine a multizonal input‐output model and an urban land use allocation model. Three different types of models are proposed: 1) an unconstrained model, 2) a primal of a linear programming approach that includes land supply constraints, and 3) a modified dual of the linear programming approach that allocates land based on additional conditions of economic efficiency. The modified dual formulation improves upon the limitations of Lowry models and their derivatives. First, the proposed model has sound theoretical underpinnings that incorporate the production theory of input‐output models and the behavioral theory of optimization models. Second, the proposed model allocates land on the basis of economic efficiency by imposing a procedure that equalizes shadow prices. And third, the proposed model is an optimization model that fully accounts for the spatial and sectoral relationships of multiplier effects determining land use demand.
Spatially Optimal Allocation of Investments: An Application of the Dynamic Multiregional Social Accounting Matrix
Authors: Kim Euijune , Ahn Jiyoun
Published: March 2003

This paper analyzes the effect of regional income disparity on the allocation of investments using a dynamic multiregional Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) model. The optimal shares of total investments required to achieve the most balanced regional growth under the constraint of a 5% fixed annual economic growth rate were 37.74% for the Capital region, 18.83% for the Southeast region, 15.92% for the Central region, 13.90% for the East region and 13.61% for the West region. This policy requires an additional investment of 1.37% of the GDP, bringing about a 52.2% reduction in regional income disparity in terms of the Atkinson index. This implies that the decentralization of investment expenditures to less developed regions would lead to a substantial gain in regional income equity, on the one hand, and to the loss of cost effectiveness in investments, on the other.
Changing Risk Premia: Evidence from a Small Open Economy
Authors: Hansson Björn , Hördahl Peter
Published: March 2003

Little is known about the differences in the relation between risk and return in large economies such as the U.S. compared with smaller, less studied, markets. In this paper, Sweden serves as a representative for small open economies. The price of risk on the Swedish stock market is estimated using a conditional asset pricing model that allows for time variation in the risk. Four different GARCH‐M models are used in the econometric specification. The estimates of the price of risk are invariably positive and significant, and we conclude that there exists a time‐varying risk premium in the Swedish stock market. Our results show that there are small differences in the preferences towards risk of representative investors in small and large economies.
Political Stock Markets and Unreliable Polls
Authors: Bohm Peter , Sonnegard Joakim
Published: March 2003

A political stock market (PSM) clearly beat the polls in predicting the outcome of a Swedish referendum on whether or not Sweden should join the European Union. In fact, polls were unable to make such predictions since the number of undecided respondents always far exceeded the observed YES/NO margin. However, an obstacle to PSMs serving as a superior forecasting instrument is that they can be sensitive to price distortions ‐ by interest groups that may wish to effectuate, and pay for, such distortions ‐ or forecast competitions tied to PSM trade gains, the latter of which was tested here.
Self‐reinforcing Agglomerations? An Empirical Industry Study
Authors: Knarvik Karen Helene Midelfart , Steen Frode
Published: March 2003

We test for the existence of endogenous agglomeration forces, using structural econometric models. After showing generally how to establish the existence of agglomeration forces empirically, we undertake an industry study of the maritime industry in Norway. The results suggest that there are significant economies of scale in the maritime industry. These economies of scale are mainly found in sub‐groups of a set of nine maritime industries. This indicates that the maritime industry consists of two self‐reinforcing agglomerations, but that there are few mechanisms actually keeping the two together.

JEL classification: C33; D24; O47; R11; R12
Capital Accumulation and Unemployment: A Tale of Two “Continents”
Authors: Malley Jim , Moutos Thomas
Published: March 2003

In contrast to much recent work regarding the causes of European unemployment, in this paper we emphasize the importance of capital accumulation. But unlike the few previous studies which have examined the relationship between capital accumulation and unemployment, we argue that what matters for the evolution of employment (and the unemployment rate) is not the absolute growth rate of a country's capital stock, but its evolution relative to other countries' capital stock. The empirical validity of the above statement is demonstrated for almost all OECD countries using quarterly time‐series data for the period 1961–1995. More detailed evidence is also presented for Germany, Japan and the United Kingdom.
Do Germans Save to Leave an Estate? An Examination of the Bequest Motive
Authors: Jurges Hendrik
Published: March 2003

I investigate whether a bequest motive for savings influences the post‐retirement wealth trajectories of German households. Two measures of the bequest motive are studied: the existence of children as the main group of potential heirs and the respondents' declared intention to bequeath. While having children has no significant impact on households' wealth trajectories, stated bequest intentions are associated with considerable heterogeneity in wealth holdings. The main conclusion from this study is that both the pure life‐cycle model and the life‐cycle model with bequest motives provide a valid basis for a theory of household wealth accumulation once the heterogeneity of preferences is acknowledged.

JEL classification: D91; J14
Unemployment and Labor–market Reform: A Contract Theoretic Approach
Authors: Gruner Hans Peter
Published: March 2003

Why do many democracies fail to reform their labor–market institutions? To answer this question we study the feasibility of reforms that include compensation to insiders for the removal of labor–market regulations. Under asymmetric information, a reformer who wants to buy the approval of voters has to pay them an informational rent in addition to the pure costs of compensation that would arise under symmetric information. In this setting, unemployment may be constrained Pareto–efficient. Labor–market reforms may fail politically because none of the reform packages proposed wins the approval of a majority of voters. We also discuss the role of capital taxation in a reform program.

JEL classification: D70; E61; J68
Predecision conflict and different patterns of postdecision attractiveness restructuring: empirical illustrations from an important real‐life decision
Authors: Svenson Ola , Shamoun Sanny
Published: March 2003

This study presents different postdecision consolidation patterns following decisions made under value conflicts. The different patterns were illustrated by case studies of real‐life decisions concerning university programs. There were five program alternatives each of which branched into a different professional area. These decisions were very important to the students. The subjects were followed during a year, from a couple of months before they made their choice of program and during several months after the start of the programs. Different postdecision strategies for consolidating a prior decision were derived from Differentiation and Consolidation Theory (Svenson, 1992). The strategies involved the following postdecision attractiveness restructuring patterns. (1) Reversing an attractiveness disadvantage into an advantage on a conflict attribute, (2) Compensating for a disadvantage through increase of an advantage of another attribute, (3) Reversing disadvantage on a conflict and decreasing advantage on non‐conflict attribute(s), and (4) Increasing advantage for chosen alternative on all attributes. In addition, (5) downgrading of importance of the conflict attribute or a complete elimination of this attribute is also a possible way of consolidating the prior decision. The results illustrated the above consolidation patterns. A comparison with subjects who made the same decisions but with no value conflict indicated that postdecision consolidation was largely driven by value conflicts at the time of decision in conjunction with the outcome of the decision.
Gender and its contribution to the prediction of cognitive abilities at 5 years
Authors: Andersson Helle W. , Sonnander Karin , Sommerfelt Kristian
Published: March 2003

Gender‐related differences in the prediction of five year‐olds’ cognitive abilities from measures of distal environment, proximal environment and infant test scores were examined in a random sample of 93 boys and 90 girls. Distal environmental data included maternal IQ, maternal and paternal education. Proximal environmental data included two variables derived from the Home Screening Questionnaire: the Home Questions and the Toy Checklist. The Bayley MDI was administered at age 13 months, whereas WPPSI‐R was used as cognitive outcome measure at age 5 years. The relationship between paternal education and child IQ, and between proximal environmental variables and child IQ was significantly stronger for boys than for girls. The associations between proximal environment and IQ in boys, were accounted for by the distal environmental variables. Bayley MDI correlated significantly higher with girls’ IQ compared to boys’ IQ. Findings are discussed in terms of parental gender‐differentiated socialization processes.
Cross‐modality Priming for Individual Words in Memory for Coherent Texts
Authors: Nicolas Serge , Söderlund Hedvig
Published: March 2003

This study explores implicit memory within the domain of text processing. Three experiments were designed to study cross‐modality priming in a word‐stem completion test following presentation of target words in the context of a coherent text. Four main results emerged. First, we found a significant priming effect for words previously studied in a text, this priming is higher with low‐frequency words than with high‐frequency words. Second, subjects demonstrated more repetition priming when study and test modalities matched than when they were different. Third, the magnitude of the priming effect in the visual condition varied with the perceptual processing of the text read. Fourth, priming effects did not depend on subjects’ remembering of the words of text read as measured by a yes/no recognition test since no modality effect was found in this latter memory test. These results challenge Levy’s (1993) view and are discussed in the framework of the transfer appropriate processing view proposed by Roediger, Weldon and Challis (1989).
Individual Postdecision Processes in Group Settings
Authors: Hammarberg Anders , Svenson Ola
Published: March 2003

In two experiments Differentiation and Consolidation Theory (Diff Con)(Svenson, 1992) was used to investigate individual postdecision making processes in three‐member groups. It was predicted that in groups in which the subjects preferred different alternatives (conflict groups), subjects would consolidate their own preferred alternative, and not the group’s final decision. A second hypothesis was that no consolidation would be indicated in groups in which all members preferred the same alternative (non‐conflict groups). The results showed that in conflict groups, the members who gave up their preferred alternative (minority members) consolidated their own preference, thereby significantly regretting the group decision. In contrast, members who got their own will through in the majority decision (majority members) showed no consolidation of the group decision. The corresponding pattern of results was replicated in a second experiment, using a different decision situation. The results indicated that perceptions of social support, agreement in a group and decreasing responsibility for a group’s decision, could all partly substitute consolidation by attractiveness restructuring.
The effect of strategies and contexts on memory for movement patterns
Authors: Helstrup Tore
Published: March 2003

Two experiments on memory for movement patterns examined possible motor aspects of this memory type. None of the experiments found any evidence for motor effects. The first experiment showed lower memory with induced motor strategies than with any of the other induced strategies. The second experiment demonstrated stronger context effects under retrieval than under encoding conditions. The results are discussed in terms of functional and structural conceptions of episodic short‐term memory of motor information.
Repetition effects for words and nonwords as indexed by event‐related fMRI: A preliminary study
Authors: Henson Richard N. A.
Published: March 2003

We have previously shown differential effects of stimulus familiarity on the repetition‐related responses in right fusiform cortex to both faces and symbols. Repetition of familiar stimuli produced a response decrease, whereas repetition of unfamiliar stimuli produced a response increase. In the present experiment, we used words and nonwords as the familiar and unfamiliar stimuli respectively. In this case, the only fusiform region showing the familiarity‐by‐repetition interaction was in anterior left fusiform. This left‐lateralisation of the fusiform interaction is consistent with our hypothesis that these repetition‐related effects occur in the same regions responsible for perceptual recognition of familiar stimuli.
Facilitation of source discrimination in the novelty effect
Authors: Åberg Carola , Nilsson Lars‐Göran
Published: March 2003

It has been demonstrated experimentally that recognition of novel items is more accurate than recognition of previously familiarized items. Tulving and Kroll (1995) proposed that this effect is due to novelty detectors in the brain giving processing priority to novel information. Recently, Dobbins et al. (1998) suggested that the effect is due to source discrimination problems. In the present two experiments attempts were made to facilitate source discrimination by having different orienting tasks and materials in the familiarization and in the critical presentations. Degree of familiarization was manipulated by varying number of presentations one, two or three times. The results in Experiment 1 showed that the novelty effect increased linearly as a function of presentations in the familiarization phase. In the second experiment the difference between familiar and novel items was even more pronounced. Enactment at encoding was added as a manipulation during familiarization. The results of Experiment 2 showed that the novelty effect did increase linearly for items with nonenacted encoding (in which the familiarization and the critical phase were more similar) but not for enacted encoding. All subjects reported experiencing source discrimination difficulties in both experiments despite the measures taken to diminish them. It seems safe to conclude that source discrimination difficulties are a part of the novelty effect.
Accuracy in scientific discourse
Authors: Berry John W. , Sam David L.
Published: March 2003

Response to Rudmin, F. W. & Ahmadzadeh, V. (2001). Psychometric critique of acculturation psychology: The case of Iranian migrants in Norway.
Language learning impairment: Integrating research and remediation
Authors: Tallal Paula , Merzenich Michael , Miller Steve , Jenkins William
Published: March 2003

Timing cues present in the acoustic waveform of speech provide critical information for the recognition and segmentation of the ongoing speech signal. Research has demonstrated that deficient temporal perception rates, that have been shown to specifically disrupt acoustic processing of speech, are related to specific language‐based learning impairments (LLI). Temporal processing deficits correlate highly with the phonological discrimination and processing deficits of these children. Electrophysiological single cell mapping studies of sensory cortex in brains of primates have shown that neural circuitry can be remapped after specific, temporally cohesive training regimens, demonstrating the dynamic plasticity of the brain. Recently, we combined these two lines of research in a series of studies that addressed whether the temporal processing deficits seen in LLIs can be significantly modified through adaptive training aimed at reducing temporal integration thresholds. Simultaneously, we developed a computer algorithm that expanded and enhanced the brief, rapidly changing acoustic segments within ongoing speech and used this to provide intensive speech and language training exercises to these children. Results to date from two independent laboratory experiments, as well as a large national clinical efficacy trial, demonstrate that dramatic improvements in temporal integration thresholds, together with speech and language comprehension abilities of LLI children, results from training with these new computer‐based training procedures.
The role of planning for intention‐behavior consistency
Authors: Gillholm Robert , Ettema Dick , Selart Marcus , Gärling Tommy
Published: March 2003

Two studies investigated how planning affects intention‐behavior consistency. In Study 1 an experimental group and control group which each consisted of 14 undergraduates were requested in computerized interviews to indicate which activities they intended to perform on the following day. Subjects in the experimental group were also requested in a second phase of the interviews to specify when and where they intended to perform the activities. The results showed that activities for which time and place had been specified were more likely to be performed. In Study 2 another 75 undergraduates volunteered to participate in an experiment in which they were requested to perform an activity (reporting mood effects of reading a prose excerpt) by themselves on one of three following days. One group of subjects only agreed to perform the activity, another group agreed to perform the activity as well as indicated when and where they would do it, and a third group in addition to this indicated which other activities they would perform on the same day. In support of the hypothesis that planning an activity increases the likelihood that it will be performed, the results showed that subjects who indicated other activities more frequently performed the target activity. More efficient time management resulting from planning may account for the findings, although further research is needed to show this conclusively.
Generalized Inverse Gaussian Distributions and their Wishart Connections
Authors: Butler Ronald W.
Published: March 2003

The matrix generalized inverse Gaussian distribution (MGIG) is shown to arise as a conditional distribution of components of a Wishart distributio n. In the special scalar case, the characterization refers to members of the class of generalized inverse Gaussian distributions (GIGs) and includes the inverse Gaussian distribution among others
Efficient Estimation of a Distribution Function under Quadrant Dependence
Authors: Cai Zongwu , Roussas George G.
Published: March 2003

LetX1,X2, ..., be real‐valued random variables forming a strictly stationary sequence, and satisfying the basic requirement of being either pairwise positively quadrant dependent or pairwise negatively quadrant dependent. LetF^ be the marginal distribution function of theXips, which is estimated by the empirical distribution functionFn and also by a smooth kernel‐type estimateFn, by means of the segmentX1, ...,Xn. These estimates are compared on the basis of their mean squared errors (MSE). The main results of this paper are the following. Under certain regularity conditions, the optimal bandwidth (in the MSE sense) is determined, and is found to be the same as that in the independent identically distributed case. It is also shown thatn MSE(Fn(t)) andnMSE (F^n(t)) tend to the same constant, asn→∞ so that one can not discriminate be tween the two estimates on the basis of the MSE. Next, ifi(n) = min {k∈{1, 2, ...}; MSE (Fk(t)) ≤ MSE (Fn(t))}, then it is proved thati(n)/n tends to 1, asn→∞. Thus, once again, one can not choose one estimate over the other in terms of their asymptotic relative efficiency. If, however, the squared bias ofF^n(t) tends to 0 sufficiently fast, or equivalently, the bandwidthhn satisfies the requirement thatnh3n→ 0, asn→∞, it is shown that, for a suitable choice of the kernel, (i(n) −n)/(nhn) tends to a positive number, asn→∞ It follows that the deficiency ofFn(t) with respect toF^n(t),i(n) −n, is substantial, and, actually, tends to ∞, asn→∞. In terms of deficiency, the smooth estimateF^n(t) is preferable to the empirical distribution functionFn(t)
Automatic Local Smoothing for Spectral Density Estimation
Authors: Fan Jianqing , Kreutzberger Eva
Published: March 2003

This article uses local polynomial techniques to fit Whittle's likelihood for spectral density estimation. Asymptotic sampling properties of the proposed estimators are derived, and adaptation of the proposed estimator to the boundary effect is demonstrated. We show that the Whittle likelihood‐based estimator has advantages over the least‐squares based log‐periodogram. The bandwidth for the Whittle likelihood‐based method is chosen by a simple adjustment of a bandwidth selector proposed in Fan & Gijbels (1995). The effectiveness of the proposed procedure is demonstrated by a few simulated and real numerical examples. Our simulation results support the asymptotic theory that the likelihood based spectral density and log‐spectral density estimators are the most appealing among their peers
A Full Bayesian Non‐parametric Analysis Involving a Neutral to the Right Process
Authors: Walker Stephen , Damien Paul
Published: March 2003

Implementation of a full Bayesian non‐parametric analysis involving neutral to the right processes (apart from the special case of the Dirichlet process) has been difficult for two reasons: first, the posterior distributions are complex and therefore only Bayes estimates (posterior expectations) have previously been presented; secondly, it is difficult to obtain an interpretation for the parameters of a neutral to the right process. In this paper we extend Ferguson & Phadia (1979) by presenting a general method for specifying the prior mean and variance of a neutral to the right process, providing the interpretation of the parameters. Additionally, we provide the basis for a full Bayesian analysis, via simulation, from the posterior process using a hybrid of new algorithms that is applicable to a large class of neutral to the right processes (Ferguson & Phadia only provide posterior means). The ideas are exemplified through illustrative analyses.
Testing a Regression Model When We Have Smooth Alternatives in Mind
Authors: Härdle Wolfgang , Kneip Alois
Published: March 2003

Goodness‐of‐fit tests based on residual sums of squares are standard procedures used when fitting regression models. Often we have a smooth alternative in mind, a qualitative feature that the χ2‐test does not take into account. We show that the power of detecting a smooth alternative increases when we smooth the current model as well. The proposed test is shown to be able to detect any continuous local alternative tending to zero slower than n−1/2. Theoretical results also address minimax non‐parametric hypothesis testing in Sobolev spaces. A simulation study is presented, and the procedure is applied to expenditure curve estimation.
Smoothing Splines and Shape Restrictions
Authors: Mammen E. , Thomas‐Agnan C.
Published: March 2003

Constrained smoothing splines are discussed under order restrictions on the shape of the function m. We consider shape constraints of the type m(r)≥ 0, i.e. positivity, monotonicity, convexity, .... (Here for an integer r≥ 0, m(r) denotes the rth derivative of m.) The paper contains three results: (1) constrained smoothing splines achieve optimal rates in shape restricted Sobolev classes; (2) they are equivalent to two step procedures of the following type: (a) in a first step the unconstrained smoothing spline is calculated; (b) in a second step the unconstrained smoothing spline is “projected” onto the constrained set. The projection is calculated with respect to a Sobolev‐type norm; this result can be used for two purposes, it may motivate new algorithmic approaches and it helps to understand the form of the estimator and its asymptotic properties; (3) the infinite number of constraints can be replaced by a finite number with only a small loss of accuracy, this is discussed for estimation of a convex function.
Asymptotic Properties of M‐estimators Based on Estimating Equations and Censored Data
Authors: Wang Jane‐Ling
Published: March 2003

Properties of Huber's M‐estimators based on estimating equations have been studied extensively and are well understood for complete (i.i.d.) data. Although the concepts of M‐estimators and influence curves have been extended for some time by Reid (1981) to incomplete data that are subject to right censoring, results on the general behavior of M‐estimators based on incomplete data remain scattered and restrictive. This paper establishes a general large sample theory for M‐estimators based on censored data. We show how to extend any asymptotic result available for M‐estimators based on complete data to the case of censored data. The extensions are usually straightforward and include the multiparameter situation. Both the lifetime and censoring distributions may be discontinuous. We illustrate several extensions which provide simple and tractable sufficient conditions for an M‐estimator to be strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. The influence curves and asymptotic variance of the M‐estimators are also derived. The applicability of the new sufficient conditions is demonstrated through several examples, including location and scale M‐estimators.
Characterizations of Competing Risks in Terms of Independent‐Risks Proxy Models
Authors: Crowder Martin
Published: March 2003

In competing risks a failure time T and a cause C, one of p possible, are observed. A traditional representation is via a vector (T1, ..., Tp) of latent failure times such that T = min(T1, ..., Tp); C is defined by T = TC in the basic situation of failure from a single cause. There are several results in the literature to the effect that a joint distribution for (T1, ..., Tp), in which the Tj are independent, can always be constructed to yield any given bivariate distribution for (C, T). For this reason the prevailing wisdom is that independence cannot be assessed from competing risks data, not even with arbitrarily large sample sizes (e.g. Prentice et al., 1978). A result was given by Crowder (1996) which shows that, under certain circumstances, independence can be assessed. The various results will be drawn together and a complete characterization can now be given in terms of independent‐risks proxy models.
Spectral Density Based Goodness‐of‐Fit Tests for Time Series Models
Authors: Paparoditis Efstathios
Published: March 2003

A new goodness‐of‐fit test for time series models is proposed. The test statistic is based on the distance between a kernel estimator of the ratio between the true and the hypothesized spectral density and the expected value of the estimator under the null. It provides a quantification of how well a parametric spectral density model fits the sample spectral density (periodogram). The asymptotic distribution of the statistic proposed is derived and its power properties are discussed. To improve upon the large sample (Gaussian) approximation of the distribution of the test statistic under the null, a bootstrap procedure is presented and justified theoretically. The finite sample performance of the test is investigated through a simulation experiment and applications to real data sets are given.
Penalized Pseudolikelihood Inference in Spatial Interaction Models with Covariates
Authors: Divino Fabio , Frigessi Arnoldo , Green Peter J.
Published: March 2003

Given spatially located observed random variables (x, z = {(xi, zi)}i, we propose a new method for non‐parametric estimation of the potential functions of a Markov random field p(x|z), based on a roughness penalty approach. The new estimator maximizes the penalized log‐pseudolikelihood function and is a natural cubic spline. The calculations involved do not rely on Monte Carlo simulation. We suggest the use of B‐splines to stabilize the numerical procedure. An application in Bayesian image reconstruction is described.
Consistency of Generalized Maximum Spacing Estimates
Authors: Ekstrom Magnus
Published: March 2003

General methods for the estimation of distributions can be derived from approximations of certain information measures. For example, both the maximum likelihood (ML) method and the maximum spacing (MSP) method can be obtained from approximations of the Kullback–Leibler information. The ideas behind the MSP method, whereby an estimation method for continuous univariate distributions is obtained from an approximation based on spacings of an information measure, were used by Ranneby & Ekstrom (1997) (using simple spacings) and Ekstrom (1997b) (using high order spacings) to obtain a class of methods, called generalized maximum spacing (GMSP) methods. In the present paper, GMSP methods will be shown to give consistent estimates under general conditions, comparable to those of Bahadur (1971) for the ML method, and those of Shao & Hahn (1999) for the MSP method. In particular, it will be proved that GMSP methods give consistent estimates in any family of distributions with unimodal densities, without any further conditions on the distributions.
A Note on Consistent Estimation of Multivariate Parameters in Ergodic Diffusion Models
Authors: Van Zanten J. H.
Published: March 2003

Certain aspects of maximum likelihood estimation for ergodic diffusions are studied via recently developed empirical process theory for martingales. This approach enables us to remove some undesirable regularity conditions that usually appear in the statistical literature on ergodic diffusions. In particular, dimension dependent conditions for the existence of a continuous likelihood and for consistency of the maximum likelihood estimator turn out to be unnecessary.
Computational Aspects Related to Martingale Estimating Functions for a Discretely Observed Diffusion
Authors: KESSLER MATHIEU , PAREDES SILVESTRE
Published: March 2003

Martingale estimating functions for a discretely observed diffusion have turned out to provide estimators with nice asymptotic properties. However, their expression usually involves some conditional expectation that has to be evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations giving rise to an approximated estimator. In this work we study, for ergodic models, the asymptotic properties of the approximated estimator and describe the influence of the number of independent simulated trajectories involved in the Monte Carlo method as well as of the approximation scheme used. Our results are of practical relevance to assess the implementation of martingale estimating functions for discretely observed diffusions.
Choosing a Model Selection Strategy
Authors: DE LUNA XAVIER , SKOURAS KOSTAS
Published: March 2003

An important problem in statistical practice is the selection of a suitable statistical model. Several model selection strategies are available in the literature, having different asymptotic and small sample properties, depending on the characteristics of the data generating mechanism. These characteristics are difficult to check in practice and there is a need for a data‐driven adaptive procedure to identify an appropriate model selection strategy for the data at hand. We call such an identification a model metaselection, and we base it on the analysis of recursive prediction residuals obtained from each strategy with increasing sample sizes. Graphical tools are proposed in order to study these recursive residuals. Their use is illustrated on real and simulated data sets. When necessary, an automatic metaselection can be performed by simply accumulating predictive losses. Asymptotic and small sample results are presented.
Competitive Tendering in the Welfare State: Perceptions and Preferences among Local Politicians
Authors: Sørensen Rune , Bay Ann–Helén
Published: March 2003

Competitive tendering for public services has triggered a heated academic debate. In political economy, competition is claimed to improve efficiency. If this is true, why are most governments faithful to the monopoly model? Political economists suggest that public sector employees and unions influence the preferences of the elected politicians. In new institutional theory, competition is claimed to undermine democratic governance. If this is true, why do some elected governments make use of competitive tendering? In this tradition, organisational solutions are seen as expressions of autonomous values and perceptions about the outcomes of organisational solutions – not as manifestations of vote–maximising politicians subject to self–interested interest groups. When governments use competition, it is due to misconceived management fads that have temporarily penetrated long–established perceptions and value systems.

These propositions have not been subjected to proper empirical testing. We have analysed extensive data about Norwegian local politicians, and found support for the notion that the perceptions of elected politicians affect their preferences for tendering for residential care services for elderly people and hospital services. But we found support for the political economy propositions as well. Party affiliation, interest group background and economic situation influence the perceptions and organisational preferences of elected politicians. Reform may be a question of political values and perceived consequences, but these values, perceptions and policy preferences are influenced by political self–interest and can be changed by exogenous economic shocks.