bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Uncertainty Over Models and Data: The Rise and Fall of American Inflation
Authors: Pruitt Seth
Published: August 2019

An economic agent who is uncertain of her model updates her beliefs in response to the data. The updating is sensitive to measurement error which, in many cases of macroeconomic interest, is apparent from the process of data revision. I make this point through simple illustrations and then analyze a recent model of the Federal Reserve's role in U.S. inflation. The existing model succeeds at fitting inflation to optimal policy, but fails to link inflation to the economic trade-off at the heart of the story. I modify the model to account for data uncertainty and find that doing so ameliorates the existing problems. This suggests that the Fed's model uncertainty is largely overestimated by ignoring data uncertainty. Consequently, now there is an explanation for the rise and fall in inflation: the concurrent rise and fall in the perceived Philips curve trade-off.
The Taylor Rule and Interval Forecast for Exchange Rates
Authors: Wang Jian , Wu Jason J.
Published: August 2019

This paper attacks the Meese-Rogoff (exchange rate disconnect) puzzle from a different perspective: out-of-sample interval forecasting. Most studies in the literature focus on point forecasts. In this paper, we apply Robust Semi-parametric (RS) interval forecasting to a group of Taylor rule models. Forecast intervals for twelve OECD exchange rates are generated and modified tests of Giacomini and White (2006) are conducted to compare the performance of Taylor rule models and the random walk. Our contribution is twofold. First, we find that in general, Taylor rule models generate tighter forecast intervals than the random walk, given that their intervals cover out-of-sample exchange rate realizations equally well. This result is more pronounced at longer horizons. Our results suggest a connection between exchange rates and economic fundamentals: economic variables contain information useful in forecasting the distributions of exchange rates. The benchmark Taylor rule model is also found to perform better than the monetary and PPP models. Second, the inference framework proposed in this paper for forecast-interval evaluation, can be applied in a broader context, such as inflation forecasting, not just to the models and interval forecasting methods used in this paper.
The Demand for Youth: Implications for the Hours Volatility Puzzle
Authors: Jaimovich Nir , Pruitt Seth , Siu Henry E.
Published: August 2019

The employment and hours worked of young individuals fluctuate much more over the business cycle than those of prime-aged individuals. Understanding the mechanism underlying this observation is key to explaining the volatility of aggregate hours over the cycle. We argue that the joint behavior of age-specific hours and wages in the U.S. data point to differences in the cyclical characteristics of labor demand. To articulate this view, we consider a production technology displaying capital-experience complementarity. We estimate the key parameters governing the degree of complementarity and show that the model can account for the behavior of age-specific hours and wages while generating a series of aggregate hours that is nearly as volatile as output.
Currency Crashes in Industrial Countries: Much Ado About Nothing?
Authors: Gagnon Joseph E.
Published: August 2019

Sharp exchange rate depreciations, or currency crashes, are associated with poor economic outcomes in industrial countries only when they are caused by inflationary macroeconomic policies. Moreover, the poor outcomes are attributable to inflationary policies in general and not the currency crashes in particular. On the other hand, crashes caused by rising unemployment or external deficits have always had good economic consequences with stable or falling inflation rates.
Markup Variation and Endogenous Fluctuations in the Price of Investment Goods
Authors: Floetotto Max , Jaimovich Nir , Pruitt Seth
Published: August 2019

The two sector model presented in this note suggests a simple structural decomposition of movements in the price of investment goods into exogenous and endogenous sources. The endogenous fluctuations arise in the presence of countercyclical markups which vary differently across the consumption and investment sectors. In turn, the movements in the markups are due to endogenous procyclical net business formation. The model, while being consistent with the countercyclicality of the price of investment goods, suggests that about a quarter of the movement in the price series can be attributed to this endogenous mechanism.
South Africa's Post-Apartheid Two-Step: Social Demands Versus Macro Stability
Authors: Coulibaly Brahima , Logan Trevon D.
Published: August 2019

During Apartheid, there was little need for redistributional policies or to borrow for public works since the vast majority of the population was underserved. With the arrival of a representative democracy in 1994, however, South Africa faced a unique problem--providing new and improved public services for the majority of its citizens while at the same time ensuring that filling this void would not undermine macroeconomic stability. Over the past fifteen years, policy makers have achieved macrostability, but progress on social needs has been below expectations and South Africa continues to lag behind its peers. This paper reviews the progress made so far and examines the challenges ahead for the upcoming administration. Our analysis suggest an increase in skill formation as a possible solution to the policy dilemma of fulfilling the outsized social demands while maintaining macrostability.
Did Easy Money in the Dollar Bloc Fuel the Global Commodity Boom?
Authors: Erceg Christopher J. , Guerrieri Luca , Kamin Steven
Published: August 2019

Among the various explanations for the runup in oil and commodity prices of recent years, one story focuses on the role of monetary policy in the United States and in developing economies. In this view, developing countries that peg their currencies to the dollar were forced to ease their monetary policies after reductions in U.S. interest rates, leading to economic overheating, excess demand for oil and other commodities, and rising commodity prices. We assess that hypothesis using the Federal Reserve staff's forward-looking, multicountry, dynamic general equilibrium model, SIGMA. We find that even if many developing country currencies were pegged to the dollar, an easing of U.S. monetary policy would lead to only a transitory runup in oil prices. Instead, strong economic growth in many developing economies, as well as shortfalls in oil production, better explain the sustained runup in oil prices observed until earlier this year. Moreover, a closer look at exchange rates and interest rates around the world suggests that the monetary policies of many developing economies, including in East Asia, are less closely influenced by U.S. policies than is frequently assumed.
Executive Compensation and Earnings Management Under Moral Hazard
Authors: Sun Bo
Published: August 2019

This paper analyzes executive compensation in a setting where managers may take a costly action to manipulate corporate performance, and whether managers do so is stochastic. We examine how the opportunity to manipulate affects the optimal pay contract, and establish necessary and sufficient conditions under which earnings management occurs. Our model provides a set of implications on the role earnings management plays in driving the time-series and cross-sectional variation of executive compensation. In addition, the model's predictions regarding the changes of earnings management and executive pay in response to corporate governance legislation are consistent with empirical observations.
Asset Returns with Earnings Management
Authors: Sun Bo
Published: August 2019

The paper investigates stock return dynamics in an environment where executives have an incentive to maximize their compensation by artificially inflating earnings. A principal-agent model with financial reporting and managerial effort is embedded in a Lucas asset-pricing model with periodic revelations of the firm's underlying profitability. The return process generated from the model is consistent with a range of financial anomalies observed in the return data: volatility clustering, asymmetric volatility, and increased idiosyncratic volatility. The calibration results further indicate that earnings management by individual firms does not only deliver the observed features in their own stocks, but can also be strong enough to generate market-wide patterns.
Input and Output Inventories in General Equilibrium
Authors: Iacoviello Matteo , Schiantarelli Fabio , Schuh Scott
Published: August 2019

We build and estimate a two-sector (goods and services) dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with two types of inventories: materials (input) inventories facilitate the production of finished goods, while finished goods (output) inventories yield utility services. The model is estimated using Bayesian methods. The estimated model replicates the volatility and cyclicality of inventory investment and inventory-to-target ratios. Although inventories are an important element of the model's propagation mechanism, shocks to inventory efficiency or management are not an important source of business cycles. When the model is estimated over two subperiods (pre and post 1984), changes in the volatility of inventory shocks or in structural parameters associated with inventories, such as the input inventory to output ratio, play a small role in reducing the volatility of output.
Empirical Estimation of Trend and Cyclical Export Elasticities
Authors: Haltmaier Jane
Published: August 2019

This paper uses an adaptation of Vahid and Engle&amp;#x27;s common trend/common cycle analysis to estimate trend and cyclical export elasticities for trading partner income and real exchange rates for 36 countries. For the countries for which both types of income elasticities can be identified, the cyclical elasticity is on average more than twice as large as the trend elasticity. The methodology is applied to forecasting exports during the recent cycle and it appears to improve on simpler models for about half of the countries. For an aggregate of all of the countries for which separate elasticities can be identified, the RMSE is about half as large for the trend/cycle model as for the simple model.
Heterogeneous Firms and Import Quality: Evidence from Transaction-Level Prices
Authors: Mandel Benjamin R.
Published: August 2019

A key emerging insight in international economics is that the scope for quality differentiation can help to explain patterns in export prices at the level of products or firms. In this paper, a unified theoretical framework of firm heterogeneity in cost and quality is brought to bear on an expansive data set of U.S. import transaction prices collected by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The higher moments of the price distribution are used to identify the scope for quality differentiation at the detailed product level highly differentiated products account for about half of U.S. import value. The product classification is then used to evaluate two claims in the nascent firm-level trade quality literature. First, the positive link between exporter capability and price is found to depend on the nature of the product: productive exporters simultaneously specialize in high-priced varieties in quality differentiated goods and low-priced varieties in more homogeneous goods. Second, a novel time series test documents firm sorting into export markets according to output quality.
Offshore Production and Business Cycle Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms
Authors: Zlate Andrei
Published: August 2019

Cross-country variation in production costs encourages the relocation of production facilities to other countries, a process known as offshoring through vertical foreign direct investment. I examine the effect of offshoring on the international transmission of business cycles. Unlike the existing macroeconomic literature, I distinguish between fluctuations in the number of offshoring firms (the extensive margin) and in the value added per offshoring firm (the intensive margin) as separate transmission mechanisms. The firms' decision to produce offshore depends on the firm-specific level of labor productivity, on fluctuations in the relative cost of effective labor, and on the fixed and trade costs of offshoring. The model replicates the procyclical pattern of offshoring and the dynamics along its two margins, which I document using data from U.S. manufacturing and Mexico's maquiladora sectors. Offshoring enhances the synchronization of business cycles, and dampens the real exchange rate appreciation generated by aggregate productivity differentials across countries.
Monetary Policy and the Cyclicality of Risk
Authors: Gust Christopher J. , López-Salido J. David
Published: August 2019

We use a DSGE model that generates endogenous movements in risk premia to examine the positive and normative implications of alternative monetary policy rules. As emphasized by the microfinance literature, variation in risk arises because households face fixed costs of transferring cash across financial accounts, implying that some households rebalance their portfolios infrequently. We show that the model can account for the mean returns on equity and the risk-free rate, and in line with empirical evidence generates a decline in the equity premium following an unanticipated easing of monetary policy. An important result that emerges from our analysis is that countercyclical monetary policy generates higher average welfare than constant money growth or zero inflation policies.
The Growth of Chinese Exports: An Examination of the Detailed Trade Data
Authors: Berger Brett D. , Martin Robert F.
Published: August 2019

Over the past decade, Chinese exports have boomed, increasing far faster than GDP growth. What can account for this explosion? Our paper uses finely detailed Chinese export data (8-digit HS codes) combined with U.S. trade data to explore this question. Although exchange rate policy clearly boosted the trade surplus, and the structure of the economy, e.g. abundant cheap labor, encouraged investment, these alone cannot account for the changing composition and acceleration of exports. We find that the growth in exports is most likely a product of effective Chinese industrial policy and fortuitous timing. The detailed trade data reveal that key &amp;#x27;new&amp;#x27; technology goods, such as cell phones, LCD screens, and laptops played a critical role. Finally, we use the data to examine the relationship between Chinese exports and global manufacturing, in particular U.S. manufacturing employment. We find that increased Chinese competition in both domestic and U.S. export markets likely lowered U.S. manufacturing employment between 2000 and 2007. Chinese policy is not, however, wholly responsible. Some job losses, such as in textile production, were no doubt the result of China&amp;#x27;s natural comparative advantages, while other U.S. job losses are attributable to relatively low investment and slow GDP growth in the United States following the 2001 recession.
Loose Commitment in Medium-Scale Macroeconomic Models: Theory and Applications
Authors: Debortoli Davide , Maih Junior , Nunes Ricardo
Published: August 2019

This paper proposes a method and a toolkit for solving optimal policy with imperfect commitment. As opposed to the existing literature, our method can be employed in medium- and large-scale models typically used in monetary policy. We apply our method to the Smets and Wouters (2007) model, where we show that imperfect commitment has relevant implications for interest rate setting, the sources of business cycle fluctuations, and welfare.
Are Recoveries from Banking and Financial Crises really so Different?
Authors: Howard Greg , Martin Robert F. , Wilson Beth Anne
Published: August 2019

This paper studies the behavior of recoveries from recessions across 59 advanced and emerging market economies over the past 40 years. Focusing specifically on the performance of output after the recession trough, we find little or no difference in the pace of output growth across types of recessions. In particular, banking and financial crisis do not affect the strength of the economic rebound, although these recessions are more severe, implying a sizable output loss. However, recovery does change with some characteristics of recession. Recoveries tend to be faster following deeper recessions, especially in emerging markets, and tend to be slower following long recessions. Most recessions are associated with a slowing, if not outright decline in house prices, but recessions with large declines in house prices also tend to have slower recoveries. Long recessions and those associated with poor housing-market outcomes can lead to sustained output losses relative to pre-crisis trends. Consistent with microeconomic studies showing permanent income loss to job-losing workers during recessions, we find that the sustained deviation in output from trend is associated with a reduction in labor input, especially linked to declines in employment and labor-force participation following recessions. On net, our results imply that the output/employment gap following a severe, long recessions is considerably smaller than is typically assumed by standard macro models, which in turn may have substantial implications for macroeconomic policy during recoveries.
Do Oil Prices Help Forecast U.S. Real GDP?: The Role of Nonlinearities and Asymmetries
Authors: Kilian Lutz , Vigfusson Robert J.
Published: August 2019

There is a long tradition of using oil prices to forecast U.S. real GDP. It has been suggested that the predictive relationship between the price of oil and one-quarter ahead U.S. real GDP is nonlinear in that (1) oil price increases matter only to the extent that they exceed the maximum oil price in recent years and that (2) oil price decreases do not matter at all. We examine, first, whether the evidence of in-sample predictability in support of this view extends to out-of-sample forecasts. Second, we discuss how to extend this forecasting approach to higher horizons. Third, we compare the resulting class of nonlinear models to alternative economically plausible nonlinear specifications and examine which aspect of the model is most useful for forecasting. We show that the asymmetry embodied in commonly used nonlinear transformations of the price of oil is not helpful for out-of-sample forecasting more robust and more accurate real GDP forecasts are obtained from symmetric nonlinear models based on the three-year net oil price change. Finally, we quantify the extent to which the 2008 recession could have been forecast using the latter class of time-varying threshold models.
Crisis and Calm: Demand for U.S. Currency at Home and Abroad from the Fall of the Berlin Wall to 2011
Authors: Judson Ruth A.
Published: August 2019

U.S. currency has long been a desirable store of value and medium of exchange in times and places where local currency or bank deposits are inferior in one or more respects. Indeed, as noted in earlier work, a substantial share of U.S. currency circulates outside the United States. Although precise measurements of stocks and flows of U.S. currency outside the United States are not available, a variety of data sources and methods have been developed to provide estimates. This paper reviews the raw data available for measuring international banknote flows and presents updates on indirect methods of estimating the stock of currency held abroad: the seasonal method and the biometric method. These methods require some adjustments, but they continue to indicate that a large share of U.S. currency is held abroad, especially in the $100 denomination. In addition to these existing indirect methods, I develop a framework and basic variants of a new method to estimate the share of U.S. currency held abroad. Although the methods and estimates are disparate, they provide support for several hypotheses regarding cross-border dollar stocks and flows. First, once a country or region begins using dollars, subsequent crises result in additional inflows: the dominant sources of international demand over the past decade and a half are the countries and regions that were known to be heavy dollar users in the early to mid-1990s. Second, economic stabilization and modernization appear to result in reversal of these inflows. Specifically, demand for U.S. currency was extremely strong through the 1990s, a period of turmoil for the former Soviet Union and for Argentina, two of the largest overseas users of U.S. currency. Demand eased in the early 2000s as conditions gradually stabilized and as financial institutions developed. However, this trend reversed sharply with the onset of the financial crisis in late 2008 and has continued since then.
Fiscal Consolidation in a Currency Union: Spending Cuts vs. Tax Hikes
Authors: Erceg Christopher J. , Lindé Jesper
Published: August 2019

This paper uses a two country DSGE model to examine the effects of tax-based versus expenditure-based fiscal consolidation in a currency union. We find three key results. First, given limited scope for monetary accommodation, tax-based consolidation tends to have smaller adverse effects on output than expenditure-based consolidation in the near-term, though is more costly in the longer-run. Second, a large expenditure-based consolidation may be counterproductive in the near-term if the zero lower bound is binding, reflecting that output losses rise at the margin. Third, a &amp;#x27;mixed strategy&amp;#x27; that combines a sharp but temporary rise in taxes with gradual spending cuts may be desirable in minimizing the output costs of fiscal consolidation.
Variance Risk Premiums and the Forward Premium Puzzle
Authors: Londono Juan M. , Zhou Hao
Published: August 2019

This paper presents evidence that the foreign exchange appreciation is predictable by the currency variance risk premium at a medium 6-month horizon and by the stock variance risk premium at a short 1-month horizon. Although currency variance risk premiums are highly correlated with each other over longer horizons, their correlations with stock variance risk premiums are quite low. Interestingly the currency variance risk premium has no predictive power for stock returns. We rationalize these findings in a consumption-based asset pricing model with orthogonal local and global economic uncertainties. In our model the market is incomplete in the sense that the global uncertainty is not priced by local stock markets and is therefore a forex-specific phenomenon—the currency uncertainty&amp;#x27;s effects on the expected stock return are off-setting between the cash flow channel and the volatility channel.
Firm Characteristics and Empirical Factor Models: A Data-Mining Experiment
Authors: Kogan Leonid , Tian Mary
Published: August 2019

A three-factor model using the standardized-unexpected-earnings and cashflow-to-price factors explains 15 well-known asset pricing anomalies. Our data-mining experiment provides a backdrop against which such claims can be evaluated. We construct three-factor linear pricing models that match return spreads associated with as many as 15 out of 27 commonly used firm characteristics over the 1971-2011 sample. We form target assets by sorting firms into ten portfolios on each of the chosen characteristics and form candidate pricing factors as long-short positions in the extreme decile portfolios. Our analysis exhausts all possible 351 three-factor models, consisting of two characteristic-based factors in addition to the market portfolio. 65% of the examined factor models match a larger fraction of the target return cross-sections than the CAPM or the Fama-French three-factor model. We find that the relative performance of the complete set of three-factor models is highly sensitive to the sample choice and the factor construction methodology. Our results highlight the challenges of evaluating empirical factor models.
Liquidity Shocks, Dollar Funding Costs, and the Bank Lending Channel During the European Sovereign Crisis
Authors: Correa Ricardo , Sapriza Horacio , Zlate Andrei
Published: August 2019

This paper documents a new type of cross-border bank lending channel using a novel dataset on the balance sheets of U.S. branches of foreign banks and their syndicated loans. We show that: (1) The U.S. branches of euro-area banks suffered a liquidity shock in the form of reduced access to large time deposits, which prompted them to cut lending to U.S. firms along the extensive margin, negatively affecting corporate investment. (2) The affected branches received additional funding from parent banks, but not enough to offset the lost deposits. (3) The liquidity shock was related to country rather than bank-specific characteristics.
Challenges for the Future of Chinese Economic Growth
Authors: Haltmaier Jane
Published: August 2019

The Chinese economy has been growing at a rapid pace for over thirty years. Most of this growth has come from higher labor productivity, while growth of employment has diminished along with a slower rate of increase in the working-age population. This paper looks at the challenges that China will face over the next two decades in maintaining its rapid pace of economic growth, especially as working-age population growth slows further and then begins to decline. Key questions include whether China will be able to continue to devote nearly half of its GDP to investment, whether such investment will become less productive as the capital-labor ratio continues to rise, whether labor participation and employment rates will fall as the population becomes less rural, and whether future shifts out of rural employment will go more toward the services rather than the manufacturing sector, where productivity is higher. In the baseline scenario economic growth falls gradually from its current pace of about 10 percent to near 6½ percent by 2030. However, a combination of less optimistic, but still reasonable assumptions, results in a reduction in the growth rate to about 1½ percent by 2030.
A Theory of Rollover Risk, Sudden Stops, and Foreign Reserves
Authors: Hur Sewon , Kondo Illenin O.
Published: August 2019

Emerging economies, unlike advanced economies, have accumulated large foreign reserve holdings. We argue that this policy is an optimal response to an increase in foreign debt rollover risk. In our model, reserves play a key role in reducing debt rollover crises (&amp;#x27;sudden stops&amp;#x27;), akin to the role of bank reserves in preventing bank runs. We find that a small, unexpected, and permanent increase in rollover risk accounts for the outburst of sudden stops in the late 1990s, the subsequent increase in foreign reserves holdings, and the salient resilience of emerging economies to sudden stops ever since. Finally, we show that a policy of pooling reserves can substantially reduce the reserves needed by emerging economies.
Trade Reforms, Foreign Competition, and Labor Market Adjustments in the U.S.
Authors: Kondo Illenin O.
Published: August 2019

Using data on trade-induced displacements, this paper documents that locations facing more foreign competition in the U.S. have: higher job destruction rates, lower job creation rates, and thereby lower employment rates. In contrast to standard trade theory, a model with variable markups and heterogeneous segmented labor markets is consistent with these facts. Foreign competition has a correlated effect on job destruction and job creation precisely because the most vulnerable locations also have lower productivity. Following an unexpected trade liberalization with limited mobility, employment sharply falls in the worse hit locations while welfare and employment increase in the aggregate.
Do Small Businesses Still Prefer Community Banks?
Authors: Berger Allen N. , Goulding William , Rice Tara N.
Published: August 2019

We formulate and test hypotheses about the role of bank type – small versus large, single-market versus multimarket, and local versus nonlocal banks – in banking relationships. The conventional paradigm suggests that &amp;quot;community banks&amp;quot; – small, single market, local institutions – are better able to form strong relationships with informationally opaque small businesses, while &amp;quot;megabanks&amp;quot; – large, multimarket, nonlocal institutions – tend to serve more transparent firms. Using the 2003 Survey of Small Business Finance (SSBF), we conduct two sets of tests. First, we test for the type of bank serving as the &amp;quot;main&amp;quot; relationship bank for small businesses with different firm and owner characteristics. Second, we test for the strength of these main relationships by examining the probability of multiple relationships and relationship length as functions of main bank type and financial fragility, as well as firm and owner characteristics. The results are often not consistent with the conventional paradigm, perhaps because of changes in lending technologies and deregulation of the banking industry.
U.S. Unconventional Monetary Policy and Transmission to Emerging Market Economies
Authors: Bowman David , Londono Juan M. , Sapriza Horacio
Published: August 2019

We investigate the effects of U.S. unconventional monetary policies on sovereign yields, foreign exchange rates, and stock prices in emerging market economies (EMEs), and we analyze how these effects depend on country-specifc characteristics. We find that, although EME asset prices, mainly those of sovereign bonds, responded strongly to unconventional monetary policy announcements, these responses were not outsized with respect to a model that takes into account each country&amp;#x27;s time-varying vulnerability to U.S. interest rates affected by monetary policy shocks.
The Domestic and International Effects of Interstate U.S. Banking
Authors: Cacciatore Matteo , Ghironi Fabio , Stebunovs Viktors
Published: August 2019

This paper studies the domestic and international effects of national bank market integration in a two-country, dynamic, stochastic, general equilibrium model with endogenous producer entry. Integration of banking across localities reduces the degree of local monopoly power of financial intermediaries. The economy that implements this form of deregulation experiences increased producer entry, real exchange rate appreciation, and a current account deficit. The foreign economy experiences a long-run increase in GDP and consumption. Less monopoly power in financial intermediation results in less volatile business creation, reduced markup countercyclicality, and weaker substitution effects in labor supply in response to productivity shocks. Bank market integration thus contributes to moderation of firm-level and aggregate output volatility. In turn, trade and financial ties allow also the foreign economy to enjoy lower GDP volatility in most scenarios we consider. These results are consistent with features of U.S. and international fluctuations after the United States began its transition to interstate banking in the late 1970s.
Offshoring, Mismatch, and Labor Market Outcomes
Authors: Arseneau David M. , Epstein Brendan
Published: August 2019

We study the role of labor market mismatch in the adjustment to a trade liberalization that results in the offshoring of high-tech production. Our model features two-sided heterogeneity in the labor market: high- and low-skilled workers are matched in a frictional labor market with high- and low-tech firms. Mismatch employment occurs when high-skilled workers choose to accept a less desirable job in the low-tech industry. The main result is that perhaps counter-intuitively this type of job displacement is actually beneficial for the labor market in the country doing the offshoring. Mismatch allows the economy to reallocate domestic high-skilled labor across both high- and low-tech industries. In doing so, mismatch dampens both the increase in the aggregate unemployment rate and the decline in aggregate wages that come as a consequence of shifting domestic production abroad.
Financial Frictions and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Emerging Economies
Authors: Akinci Özge
Published: August 2019

Estimated dynamic models of business cycles in emerging markets deliver counter- factual predictions for the country risk premium. In particular, the country interest rate predicted by these models is acyclical or procyclical, whereas it is countercyclical in the data. This paper proposes and estimates a small open economy model of the emerging-market business cycle in which a time-varying country risk premium emerges endogenously. In the proposed model, a firm&amp;#x27;s borrowing rate adjusts countercyclically as the default threshold of the firm depends on the state of the macroeconomy. I econometrically estimate the proposed model and find that it can account for the volatility and the countercyclicality of country risk premium as well as for other key emerging market business cycle moments. Time varying uncertainty in firm specific productivity contributes to delivering a countercyclical default rate and explains 70 percent of the variances in the trade balance and in the country risk premium. Finally, I find the predicted contribution of nonstationary productivity shocks in explaining output variations falls between the extremely high and extremely low values reported in the literature.
Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balances
Authors: Haltmaier Jane
Published: August 2019

The Great Financial Crisis coincided with a sizable reduction in global external imbalances, defined as the absolute value of the sum of individual country current account surpluses and deficits relative to global GDP. Although current account balances should not respond to a downturn that is uniform across countries, one that hits countries with current account deficits harder than those with surpluses might result in a decline in the global balance. This paper quantifies the cyclical portion of the current account balance for 35 countries using estimates of the severity of the cycle in each country relative to that of its trading partners in conjunction with three estimates of the sensitivity of the current account balance to changes in the output gap. Two of the estimates are derived from equations linking trade to income and the third is derived from the relationship between changes in current account balances and changes in output gap differentials. The main result is that the bulk of the reduction in the global current account imbalance since 2006 appears to have been structural. Cyclical forces are estimated to account for between 10 and 30 percent of the decline. In the aggregate, the cyclical effect is estimated to be currently holding down the global current account balance by about 1/2 percentage point. However, the size of the cyclical effect is more substantial for some countries. Both surplus and deficit countries have contributed to the decline in the absolute value of the global current account imbalance, but the contribution of the deficit countries is about twice as large as that of the surplus countries. Changes in oil prices have had largely offsetting effects on the global current account balance, but changes in real exchange rates in recent years have contributed to the reduction.
Surprise and Uncertainty Indexes: Real-Time Aggregation of Real-Activity Macro Surprises
Authors: Scotti Chiara
Published: August 2019

I construct two real-time, real activity indexes: (i) a surprise index that summarizes recent economic data surprises and measures optimism/pessimism about the state of the economy, and (ii) an uncertainty index that measures uncertainty related to the state of the economy. The indexes, on a given day, are weighted averages of the surprises or squared surprises from a set of macro releases, where the weights depend on the contribution of the associated real activity indicator to a business condition index a la Aruoba, Diebold, and Scotti (2009). I construct indexes for the United States, Euro Area, the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan. I show that the surprise index preserves the properties of the underlying series in affecting asset prices, with the advantage of being a parsimonious summary measure of real-activity surprises. For the United States, I present the real-activity uncertainty index in relation to other proxies commonly used to measure uncertainty and compare their macroeconomic impact. I find evidence that when uncertainty is strictly related to real activity it has a potentially milder impact on economic activity than when it also relates to the financial sector.
Türkçede Ortak Kökler
Authors: ALİBEKİROĞLU Sertan
Published: August 2019

Türkçede sözcükler kök olarak
ikiye ayrılmıştır. Fiil kökleri ve isim kökleri. Bu köklerin ortaya çıktıkları
andan itibaren isim ve fiil kökleri olarak belirlendikleri görüşü hakimdir.
Buna göre de Türkçede herhangi bir kökün hem isim hem de fiil kökü olarak
kullanılmadığı kısaca ortak bir kök bulunmadığı sonucuna varılmıştır. Buna
rağmen Türkiye Türkçesinde görülen boya / boya-, aç/ aç- vb. isim ve fiil kökü
şeklindeki asıl biçim birimlerin Eski Türkçe ile Batı Türkçesi arasında gelişen
ses olayları ile açıklandığı görülmektedir. Yine barış / barış-, savaş / savaş-
vb. biçimbirimlerin de fiil köklerine getirilen farklı yapım ekleri taşıdıkları
belirtilmiştir. Az sayıda olsa da Türkçede ortak kök olduğunu gösteren
çalışmalar da bulunmaktadır. Bu çalışmada Türkiye Türkçesinde kimi sözcüklerin
ortak kök oldukları gösterilmiş ve buna göre de Eski Türkçede de kimi
sözcüklerin ortak kök olabilecekleri üzerinde durulmuştur.
Mehmet Ali Kalkan'ın Hayatı, Sanatı ve Şiirleri Üzerine Bir Değerlendirme
Authors: GÖKBULUT Serkan
Published: August 2019

Şiirlerinde
Türk kültür tarihi ve geleneğinin kaynaklarından beslenen Mehmet Ali Kalkan,
sade dili, kullandığı nazım şekilleri ve hece vezniyle halk şiirine daha yakın
bir tutum sergiler. Şairin, şiirlerine bakıldığında her şiirinin bir şeyler
ifade etmeye çalıştığı görülür. Ona göre en az heceyle en çok şeyi söylemek
esastır. Bu anlamda az sözle çok şey anlatmak şiirlerinin başlıca hedefleri
arasındadır. Bazı şiirlerinde abartıya yer verdiği görülse de şiirde
gerçekçilikten yana olan Mehmet Ali Kalkan’ın şiirleri içerik ve şekil
özellikleri bakımından birbiriyle uyuşmaktadır. Şairin, şiirlerinde kaleme
aldığı hususlar, duygu ve düşünce dünyasındaki görüşlerini destekler
niteliktedir. Bu çalışma Mehmet Ali Kalkan’ın şiir sanatını ve şiirlerini konu
almaktadır. Çalışmanın amacı, Mehmet Ali Kalkan’ın şiirlerindeki içerik
unsurlarını ve şekil özelliklerini tespit ederek onun şiir anlayışını ve
sanatını ortaya koymaktır.
Bir Cumhuriyet Kadını; Prof. Dr. Halet Çambel
Authors: KARPINAR Türkan
Published: August 2019

Mustafa Kemal
Atatürk, cinsiyet eşitliğine ve Türk kadınının sosyal hayatta temsiline büyük
önem vermiş, kadınların farklı alanlarda yer alması için çalışmalar
yürütmüştür. Bu çalışmalar neticesinde Türk kadını bilimden sanata, sanattan
spora, spordan kültüre pek çok farklı alanda ülkemizi ulusal ve uluslararası
arenada en iyi şekilde temsil etti. Bu kadınlardan birisi de Prof. Dr. Halet
Çambel’dir. Genç Cumhuriyet’in en başarılı kadın simalarından olan Prof. Dr.
Halet Çambel bir asra yaklaşan ömründe spor, sanat, müzecilik, arkeoloji ve
tarihle ilgilenmiş, ülkesini farklı alanlarda ulusal ve uluslararası arenada en
iyi şekilde temsil eden kadınlardan birisi olarak çağdaş Türk kadının öncülük
etmiştir.
ELİT BİSİKLETÇİ VE TRİATLONCULARDA ANTRENMAN SEZONUNDA FİZİKSEL PERFORMANS PARAMETRELERİYLE AŞIRI YÜKLENMENİN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ
Authors: PÜNDÜK Zekine , ÖZTÜRK Seda
Published: August 2019

Bu araştırma, dayanıklılık
sporu yapan bisikletçi ve triatletlerde antrenman sezonu süresince yapılan fiziksel
performans test parametreleriyle aşırı yüklenme belirtilerini değerlendirmek
amacıyla yapılmıştır. Çalışmaya, bisikletçi (n=9) ve triatloncu (n=10) olmak
üzere düzenli antrenman yapan toplam 19 sporcu katılmıştır. Sporcular antrenman
sezonu içinde 8 haftalık periyodlarla 10 km zamana karşı maksimal bisiklet
testi ve kademeli artan maksimal bisiklet testleri yapılarak takip edilmiştir. Veriler bilgisayar ortamında tanımlayıcı istatistikler kullanılarak
değerlendirilmiştir. 10 km zamana karşı yapılan bisiklet testi
sonucunda, bisikletçilerde maksimal nabız sezon sonu değeri anlamlı olmasa da
düşmüş, ancak triatletlerde bu düşüş anlamlı düzeyde olmuştur (p=0,02).
Maksimal hız, ortalama hız ve maksimal watt bisikletçilerde sezon sonunda artmıştır
(p=,03, p=0,01, p=0,03, sırasıyla). Bu parametreler, triatloncularda anlamlı
düzeyde değişmemiştir. Maksimal bisiklet testi değerlendirmesinde maksimal
nabız, aerobik güç, göreceli hesaplanan maksimal watt her iki grup sporcu için
sezon içinde anlamlı değişiklik göstermemiştir. Göreceli hesaplanan maksimal
oksijen tüketimi (VO2max) triatletlerde anlamlı olmasa da sezon sonu
değeri düşmüştür. Sonuç olarak, performans gelişimini 10 km zamana karşı
bisiklet testi, kademeli artan maksimal bisiklet testine göre daha iyi gösterdi.
Dolayısıyla, 10 km zamana karşı bisiklet testi performans değerlendirmesinde daha
faydalı sonuçlar verebilir. Maksimal kalp atım sayısı ve göreceli hesaplanan VO2max
sezon sonu değerleri triatletlerde düşmüştür, bu durum fonksiyonel aşırı
yüklenmeye işaret edebilir.
Обзор систем торговых преференций для беднейших стран
Authors: Лард Сэм
Published: August 2019

Проанализировано оказание помощи беднейшим странам с целью повышения эффективности их торговых операций, осуществляемых на семи приоритетных рынках (Канады, Китая, Европейского Союза, Индии, Японии, Южной Кореи и США — посредством предоставления им преференциального режима доступа на указанные рынки). Данная проблема рассмотрена не только в страновом аспекте, но и с точки зрения охвата производимой продукции, ограничений по отдельным программам преференций, оценки стоимости программ помощи, включая потенциал для внесения улучшений, и потенциальных последствий от завершения Дохараунда ВТО. Сформулированы некоторые предложения по программам помощи, чтобы они способствовали большему вкладу в сферу торговли НРС, в ускорение их экономического развития.
VATS PLEVRA BİYOPSİSİ DENEYİMLERİMİZ: 35 OLGUNUN ANALİZİ
Authors: Dumanlı Ahmet , Öz Gürhan
Published: August 2019

Giriş: Plevral efüzyon
plevral boşlukta herhengi bir sebebe bağlı olarak sıvı toplanmasıdır.
Yaptığımız çalışmada, kliniğimizde plevral efüzyon nedeni ile Video Aracılı
Torakoskopik Cerrahi (VATS) yapılan  hastaların
sonuçlarını değerlendirmeyi amaçladık.Gereç ve Yöntem:
2017-2018
yılları arasında eksuda vasfında plevral efüzyon nedeniyle Afyon Sağlık
Bilimleri Üniversitesi Tıp Fakültesi (AFSÜ) Göğüs Cerrahisi Kliniği’ne müracat
eden ve VATS uygulanan 35  hastanın
dosyaları retrospektif olarak incelendi. Hastaların yaş, cinsiyet, hastanede
yatış süreleri belirlendi. Plevral sıvıların biyokimyasal testleri, sitolojileri
, tüberküloz (tbc) ve aerobik kültürleri ile Plevral biyopsilerin patolojileri
kaydedildi. Plevral biyopsi ve sıvıların benign - malign ayırımı yapılarak aralarındaki
korelasyon incelendi.Bulgular ve Sonuç: 35
hastanın 25‘i (%71.43) erkek, 10‘u (%28.57) kadın, yaş ortalaması 61.89 ve
hastanede yatış süresi ortalama 5.66 gün idi. Hastaların 18’inde (%51.43) sağ ,
17 ‘sinde (%48.57) sol hemitoraksta plevral efüzyon mevcuttu. Plevral sıvı
sitolojisi hastaların 29’unda (%82.85) benign, 6’ında (%17.15). malign idi.
Hastaların plevra biyopsi patolojileri ise 26’ında (%74.30)  benign, 9’unda (%25.70)  malign idi. Plevra biyopsisi malign olan
hastaların;  2’si (%5.71) malign
mezotelyoma, 4’ ü (%11.42) adenokarsinom, 
2’si (%5.71) karsinom, 1’i (%2.85) Ewing sarkomu olarak raporlandı. Plevral
biyopsisi benign olan hastalarda; 1 (%2.85) kazeifiye ve 3 (%8.57) nonkazeifiye
granülomatöz iltihap, 20 (%57.14) nonspesifik iltihap, 2 (%5.71) apseleşen
iltihap rapor edildi. Plevral sıvı kültüründe 1 hastada (%2.85) tbc üredi.

Tartışma: VATS işlemi plevral
sıvısı bulunan ve tanı konulamayan hastalarda tanı koymak ve tedaviyi
düzenlemek için güvenle kullanılabilecek bir yöntemdir.
“This Is Shared Work:” Negotiating Boundaries in a Social Service Intermediary Organization
Authors: Asad Mariam , Le Dantec Christopher A.
Published: August 2019

This article discusses the results from our fieldwork at a social service intermediary organization working to reform criminal justice institutions in a large city in the American South. Our findings focus on organizational staff’s relationships with information and communication technologies (ICTs), both in the course of their daily work of delivering care work to vulnerable participants, as well as the project’s broader political goals to reduce recidivism and repair community relationships with local police. The group needed to distinguish and negotiate the various—and often competing—needs and commitments of the civic actors involved. As on-site researchers, we were asked to design and deploy digital tools to support the organization in exchange for conducting research on organizational uses of technology. This work draws from our time with the group to ask: how might community-based researchers revisit and realign our research methods to better respond to the changing needs and practices of a research site? Our observations identified three recurring technological concerns expressed by staff that pointed to competing agendas and needs within the organization, specifically across different levels of scale: operational, proximal, and temporal. We then discuss these patterns around broader organizational concerns to reflect on how they impacted our own research methods and commitments. Finally, we reflect on the limitations of participatory methods in issue-oriented organizations that do progressive work across multiple scales and agendas.
The Practice of Civic Tech: Tensions in the Adoption and Use of New Technologies in Community Based Organizations
Authors: Gordon Eric , Lopez Rogelio Alejandro
Published: August 2019

This article reports on a qualitative study of community based organizations’ (CBOs) adoption of information communication technologies (ICT). As ICTs in the civic sector, otherwise known as civic tech, get adopted with greater regularity in large and small organizations, there is need to understand how these technologies shape and challenge the nature of civic work. Based on a nine-month ethnographic study of one organization in Boston and additional interviews with fourteen other organizations throughout the United States, the study addresses a guiding research question: how do CBOs reconcile the changing (increasingly mediated) nature of civic work as ICTs, and their effective adoption and use for civic purposes, increasingly represent forward-thinking, progress, and innovation in the civic sector?—of civic tech as a measure of “keeping up with the times.” From a sense of top-down pressures to innovate in a fast-moving civic sector, to changing bottom-up media practices among community constituents, our findings identify four tensions in the daily practice of civic tech, including: 1) function vs. representation, 2) amplification vs. transformation, 3) grassroots vs. grasstops, and 4) youth vs. adults. These four tensions, derived from a grounded theory approach, provide a conceptual picture of a civic tech landscape that is much more complicated than a suite of tools to help organizations become more efficient. The article concludes with recommendations for practitioners and researchers.