Stable population structure in Europe since the Iron Age, despite high mobility
Authors: Antonio Margaret L , Weiß Clemens L , Gao Ziyue , Sawyer Susanna , Oberreiter Victoria , Moots Hannah M , Spence Jeffrey P , Cheronet Olivia , Zagorc Brina , Praxmarer Elisa , Özdoğan Kadir Toykan , Demetz Lea , Gelabert Pere , Fernandes Daniel , Lucci Michaela , Alihodžić Timka , Amrani Selma , Avetisyan Pavel , Baillif-Ducros Christèle , Bedić Željka , Bertrand Audrey , Bilić Maja , Bondioli Luca , Borówka Paulina , Botte Emmanuel , Burmaz Josip , Bužanić Domagoj , Candilio Francesca , Cvetko Mirna , De Angelis Daniela , Drnić Ivan , Elschek Kristián , Fantar Mounir , Gaspari Andrej , Gasperetti Gabriella , Genchi Francesco , Golubović Snežana , Hukeľová Zuzana , Jankauskas Rimantas , Vučković Kristina Jelinčić , Jeremić Gordana , Kaić Iva , Kazek Kevin , Khachatryan Hamazasp , Khudaverdyan Anahit , Kirchengast Sylvia , Korać Miomir , Kozlowski Valérie , Krošláková Mária , Kušan Špalj Dora , La Pastina Francesco , Laguardia Marie , Legrand Sandra , Leleković Tino , Leskovar Tamara , Lorkiewicz Wiesław , Los Dženi , Silva Ana Maria , Masaryk Rene , Matijević Vinka , Cherifi Yahia Mehdi Seddik , Meyer Nicolas , Mikić Ilija , Miladinović-Radmilović Nataša , Milošević Zakić Branka , Nacouzi Lina , Natuniewicz-Sekuła Magdalena , Nava Alessia , Neugebauer-Maresch Christine , Nováček Jan , Osterholtz Anna , Paige Julianne , Paraman Lujana , Pieri Dominique , Pieta Karol , Pop-Lazić Stefan , Ruttkay Matej , Sanader Mirjana , Sołtysiak Arkadiusz , Sperduti Alessandra , Stankovic Pesterac Tijana , Teschler-Nicola Maria , Teul Iwona , Tončinić Domagoj , Trapp Julien , Vulović Dragana , Waliszewski Tomasz , Walter Diethard , Živanović Miloš , Filah Mohamed el Mostefa , Čaušević-Bully Morana , Šlaus Mario , Borić Dušan , Novak Mario , Coppa Alfredo , Pinhasi Ron , Pritchard Jonathan K 
Published: January 2024

Ancient DNA research in the past decade has revealed that European population structure changed dramatically in the prehistoric period (14,000–3000 years before present, YBP), reflecting the widespread introduction of Neolithic farmer and Bronze Age Steppe ancestries. However, little is known about how population structure changed from the historical period onward (3000 YBP - present). To address this, we collected whole genomes from 204 individuals from Europe and the Mediterranean, many of which are the first historical period genomes from their region (e.g. Armenia and France). We found that most regions show remarkable inter-individual heterogeneity. At least 7% of historical individuals carry ancestry uncommon in the region where they were sampled, some indicating cross-Mediterranean contacts. Despite this high level of mobility, overall population structure across western Eurasia is relatively stable through the historical period up to the present, mirroring geography. We show that, under standard population genetics models with local panmixia, the observed level of dispersal would lead to a collapse of population structure. Persistent population structure thus suggests a lower effective migration rate than indicated by the observed dispersal. We hypothesize that this phenomenon can be explained by extensive transient dispersal arising from drastically improved transportation networks and the Roman Empire’s mobilization of people for trade, labor, and military. This work highlights the utility of ancient DNA in elucidating finer scale human population dynamics in recent history.