bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
“How near were we to Ruine”: the effects in England of the earthquake of 8th September 1692
Authors: Morse Trevor
Published: December 2007

This paper attempts to Illustrate some of the advantages and disadvantages of using contemporary evidence in the study of historical seismicity. The event considered here is doubly significant—it was a large event by British standards, as well as arguably the best documented earthquake to have occurred before the mid‐eighteenth century. At a time when an interdisciplinary approach to historical seismicity is still in its infancy this paper identifies those areas where the available sources can assist in the evaluation of early macroseismic data.
Newspaper reporting of bush‐fire disaster in south‐eastern Australia—Ash Wednesday 1983
Authors: McKay Jennifer M.
Published: December 2007

Newspaper reports about a bushfire disaster in SE Australia were analysed in order to present some understanding of the images those reports conveyed to the victims and non‐victims in one affected State. The results demonstrated that the newspapers gave limited prominence to reports containing warning or response information before or after the disaster. The newspapers reported most prominently case study descriptions of personal hardship or heroism which portrayed the victims as completely helpless during and after the event. The newspapers also devoted considerable prominence to reports describing the losses attributable to the bushfire, the factual details of which were accurate: this emphasis in content probably increased community perception of the danger of bushfire threat but, as little warning or response information was given, it is unlikely that the reports helped improve community preparedness for a future bushfire.
Refugee health care: Similar but different?
Authors: Dick Bruce , Simmonds Stephanie
Published: December 2007

The present review sets out to identify differences between refugees and other more stable communities living in less developed countries: demographic, mortality, morbidity, nutritional and selected epidemiological data are discussed. Although generalizations are difficult because of the variability of refugees and their differing circumstances, the health problems and diseases do not appear to differ qualitatively, although they may be quantitatively more severe.

The areas of particular concern lie not so much with the problems but with approaches to their solutions: the need to respond rapidly and appropriately to emergencies, the importance of attending to the priorities of nutrition, shelter, sanitation and water; and the necessity of providing services which are sufficiently flexible and sensitive to the changing needs of the refugees as they move from the acute emergency to the long‐term settlements.

The review highlights certain areas where insufficient information is currently available, notably mental illness and the long‐term issues of health and development, and outlines the implications of the conclusions for policy makers, with particular reference to training and research.
Where the exception confirms the rule: The cyclones of 1982–1983 in French Polynesia
Authors: Dupon Jean‐Francois
Published: December 2007

The island groups of French Polynesia, which had not experienced any really devastating cyclones since the beginning of the century, were hard hit several times between December 1982 and April 1983. This paper reviews the cost of damage from these cyclones and shows how lowered public awareness of the hazard in a low‐frequency area combined with the special economic conditions prevailing in the Territory to make the total cost much higher than it need have been. Ways and means of rehabilitation are analyzed. The development of the thermal imbalance in the Pacific, which appears to have triggered this series of natural disasters, only seemingly exceptional, is briefly discussed.
Famine forecasting; Prices and peasant behaviour in Northern Ethiopia
Authors: Cutler Peter
Published: December 2007

This paper, completed in January 1984, begins by briefly outlining the contrasting views of price behaviour during the last Ethiopian famine (1972–1974) put forward by Seaman and Holt (1980) and Sen (1981). A hypothesis is developed to account for peasant behaviour and price responses under developing famine conditions. This is then tested with data recently made available. The paper concludes by summarizing the findings and their implications for famine forecasting, and argues that famine conditions in Northern Ethiopia are likely to worsen during 1984.
Lessons in logistics from Somalia
Authors: Kemball‐Cook David , Stephenson Robin
Published: December 2007

By February 1981 the refugee relief operation in Somalia was close to breakdown. The Governor of Somalia and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR) contracted the agency CARE to manage the logistics of the operation. By August 1981 over 99 % of food received at Mogadishu was reaching the camps. Here we describe this apparent success, and attempt to diagnose the contributing factors. Chief among these are dynamic leadership, ‘systems’ management, adaptability of personnel, the use of professional Indian food monitors in the camps, and the support given by the Government. The chief qualification on the success of the operation has been the continued dependency on expatriate expertise.

General conclusions are offered relating to the management of logistics in relief operations. The most important conclusion is that there is a prime need for logistics to be centralized in a single organization at the start of major emergencies. We point to the current inadequacy in an international relief system which fails to ensure this, and suggest that a new or existing part of the United Nations family be given a ‘brief for in‐country logistics’ to become a UN Emergency Logistics Office.
Spontaneous resettlement after drought: An Ethiopian example*
Authors: Turton David , Turton Pat
Published: December 2007

Based upon two recent periods of fieldwork among a spontaneously resettled population of cattle herders in southwestern Ethiopia, this paper is an attempt to illustrate, by a particular case, the general proposition that external aid, if it is not to be counter‐productive, must meet people's needs as they themselves define them.

The people in question, the Mursi, have experienced, since 1970, their worst period of drought and hunger in living memory. They have responded to this experience with resilience and inventiveness and largely without external assistance. The paper concentrates on a recent, drought induced, migration of Mursi to higher land, outside their traditional territory, and shows how the migrants are adapting to a new way of life which brings them into direct conflict with some of their most cherished cultural traditions.
Vulnerable groups*
Authors: Pankhurst Alula
Published: December 2007

As a rule, refugees arrive in their host country with a bare minimum of possessions; in this respect every refugee can be classified as vulnerable. However, a certain category is especially at risk, namely those persons who would be considered vulnerable in a “normal society.” These people are doubly in need of assistance, firstly, inasmuch as they are refugees and secondly, insofar as they are vulnerable.

If these refugees can be helped to overcome (or at least reduce) their handicaps, they can begin to become self‐reliant and form an active, productive parts of their community, rather than remaining an extra burden to an already vulnerable part of the society in their country of asylum.

Whilst their able‐bodied companions work in the fields or the towns, part of this category can be trained and usefully employed in sectors of work that do not require great mobility or physical fitness (such as handicrafts, trade, teaching and services).,
The role of the individual administrator in famine relief: Three case studies
Authors: Brennan L. , Heathcote R.L. , Lucas A.E.
Published: December 2007

A series of hypotheses on the role of the individual administrator in famine relief are proposed and three are examined with respect to case studies of famines in India (1896 and 1906–1907), Uganda (1908) and Lombok (1940). While the evidence is not conclusive, the focus upon the role of the individual administrator offers additional insights into the compexities of official response to famines.
Death and injury in earthquakes
Authors: Alexander David
Published: December 2007

The assumption that the ratio of mortality to morbidity will approximate 1:3 in earthquake disasters is investigated. When it occurs, a 1:3 ratio is most likely to coincide with a Richter magnitude in the range 6.5–7.4, but many other ratios of death to injuries may instead be probable. For each individual disaster the pattern of casualties is likely to be very heterogeneous, but it would be easier to discover regularities if a more standardized definition of ‘injury’ could be found.
A general assessment of the environmental impact of refugees in Somalia with attention to the refugee agricultural programme
Authors: Young Lincoln
Published: December 2007

This paper attempts to examine the broad features of Somalia's harsh physical environment into which several hundreds of thousands of refugees, with mainly a nomadic or semi‐nomadic life style and culture, dramatically descended six years ago. The thirty‐six rural camps in which at least half of them live are described as is the refugee agricultural programme which is training several thousand families so that they may be “self‐supporting.” The four regions where the camps are located are each briefly summarized in terms of their soils, their climates, their natural vegetation, and the type of agriculture which the refugee farmers practice. A more detailed analysis is then given on the following critical environmental concerns: Vegetation and erosion on refugee farms, the growing problem of refugee livestock, the destruction of trees, and irrigation practices and salinity on refugee farms. The paper concludes with an argument to preserve Somalia's environment from careless and destructive exploitation, which is leading towards desertification, and calls for an in‐depth study of the situation.
Cholera in Sudan: An account of an epidemic in a refugee camp in eastern Sudan, May–June 1985
Authors: Mulholland Kim
Published: December 2007

In 1985 cholera has been a serious problem in the horn of Africa, particularly affecting the many famine victims and refugees in that region. In this paper the history of cholera in Africa is briefly summarized, as is the background to the current refugee situation in eastern Sudan. A cholera epidemic involving 1,175 cases in two adjacent refugee camps in eastern Sudan is described. In this epidemic there were thirteen inpatient deaths and thirty‐eight known home deaths from cholera. The management of the epidemic is described in detail. Overall an average of 8 1. of intravenous fluid was used per case, a higher figure than was anticipated, probably because of the unexpected degree of vomiting and the shortage of trained nursing staff.

The relationship between cholera and malnutrition is explored and hypochlorhydria is suggested as the main reason for the increased susceptibility to cholera among malnourished populations. It was observed that severely malnourished adults and children appeared to nave less severe diarrhoea with their cholera, presumably because of reduced mucosal surface area and poor enterocyte function. Finally possible means of aborting cholera epidemics are discussed.
FLOOD POLICY REVERSAL IN AUSTRALIA
Authors: Handmer John W.
Published: December 2007

In 1977 the Government of New South Wales introduced a flood prone lands policy which attempted to break with the past emphasis on structural works. Cornerstones of the policy were the preparation of floodplain maps, and use of the 1:100 (100 year or 1%) flood to delineate floodplains and 1:20 flood for floodway definition. The fiscal and regulatory elements of the policy were to be applied more or less uniformly within the two zones. At first there was little effective opposition to the program, but this changed when large areas of Sydney, which had not been inundated since development, were mapped. Local government concern over issues of legal liability led to decisions which in turn prompted opposition to the policy from residents' action groups and property development interests. A perceived drop in property values provided the main motivation for action by residents. This pressure for change, which intensified just before the 1984 state election, saw the policy overturned.

The new policy gives local government greater responsibility for floodplain management. State authorities have withdrawn from floodplain mapping, although technical advice will continue to be provided, and there are no longer any uniform floodplain or floodway definitions. Policy implementation is to be guided by a Manual which attempts to define flood hazard in terms of both physical and social criteria.
Volcanic disasters in Latin America and the 13th November 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz volcano in Colombia
Authors: Sigurdsson Haraldur , Carey Steven
Published: December 2007

Volcanic eruptions in Latin America have claimed about 61,000 lives since 1600 A.D. and the region's volcanoes are responsible for about a quarter of the world's fatalities from this type of hazard. Nearly all loss of life from volcanism in Latin America is due to pyroclastic surges, pyroclastic flows and lahars or volcanic mudflows. Lahars generated during the 13th November, 1985 eruption of Nevado del Ruiz in Colombia claimed 25,000 lives, underscoring the great hazard from lahars, which can be generated from the fifty‐six, active, ice‐capped Central and South American volcanoes during even very small eruptions. The probability of specific prediction of the timing of such events is currently low, whereas the probability of a general prediction of volcanic eruption is high, giving sufficient time to install telemetered lahar alarm systems, which could largely avoid the loss of life.
The use of newspaper data in historical earthquake studies
Authors: Musson R.M.W.
Published: December 2007

Studies of historical British earthquakes are an essential component of assessing seismic hazard in the U.K.; such studies rely heavily on macroseismic data obtained from printed newspapers. This paper discusses the ways in which newspapers have reported British earthquakes and the nature and limitations of the data that may be acquired from this source. Historical changes in the press as a source of macroseismic data are discussed. It is suggested that an understanding of the background and nature of newspaper data is an important component in the process of revaluating historical earthquakes from such data.
The African food crisis of 1982–1986*
Authors: Borton John , Clay Edward
Published: December 2007

The crisis cannot be attributed to any one cause, but rather it was the product of a number of interacting factors whose precise combination varied between countries. Drought, internal political and economic factors and an unfavourable external economic environment were significant contributory factors. Civil war and externally financed insurgency were primarily responsible for propelling a food crisis into a famine in four out of the six worst affected countries. Within the literature, there is a tendency for writers to emphasize the relative contribution of factors within their own disciplines.

So far the literature on the responses, both within country and internationally, is comprised of eye witness accounts by journalists and evaluations by aid agencies of their performance. The international response by governments and the public was massive and unprecedented, but the response by governments, indigenous NGO's and the public within affected countries is often overlooked by the journalistic literature. Generalizations about “the African food crisis” have obscured the considerable diversity amongst countries. This is well illustrated by the experiences of Ethiopia, Kenya and Botswana.

This diversity indicates the biased perspectives that arise from focussing on the extreme famines, as in Ethiopia. Research priorities should include studies of systems that coped during the crisis, historical analysis of the crisis, the way early warning information is processed within bureaucratic institutions, environmental degradation and fully integrated analysis of food production and consumption systems.
Food aid and relief‐development strategies*
Authors: Hay Roger W.
Published: December 2007

This paper begins by setting out the main arguments on which a proposal for “relief‐development strategies” rest. The second part of the paper is concerned with a discussion of the way the objectives of a “relief‐development strategy” might be achieved and the roles emergency food aid might have. In the third part of the paper, a number of strategic issues are discussed. A stylized account is presented of how a broad “relief development strategy” might be mounted. The last part of the paper draws together the discussion by considering how emergency projects should be assessed. If the principles on which this paper are based are accepted, then the evaluation of emergency projects should extend well beyond convention.
Selective feeding programmes in Ethiopia and East Sudan–1985/1986
Authors: Young Helen
Published: December 2007

A survey of thirty‐four feeding programmes in Ethiopia and East Sudan was undertaken. Wie differences were found between the two countries and also within Ethiopia. Irrelugar general ration distribution was commonplace in Ethiopia, thus placing an extra strain on selective feeding programmes. The principal admission criteria to Selected Feeding Programmes (SFPs) were weight for height categories. The cut‐off stages of the emergency. Useful compasirions between programmes were hampered by such differences, as well as by the different methods of reporting data.

The types of food usd in programmes depended on availability and included high energyu drinks, poridges, take‐home pre‐mixes and sometimes indigenous foods. A large number of foods e.g. cornedbedef, chicken paté, noodles, da4tes etc. Some added interesting variety and added nutritional value to the diet, while others caused more problems than they solved due to their low acceptability, inappropriate packaging, limited accompanying information and complex an costly preparation. The imlementation of food dination policies by donors and consignees regarding appropriate foodstuffs and their recommended use was considered to be the major solution to this problem.
Disaster in the South Pacific: Impact of tropical cyclone “Namu” on the Solomon Islands, May 1986
Authors: Britton Neil R.
Published: December 2007

Tropical Cyclone “Namu” struck the Pacific nation of the Solomon Islands during 18‐20th May 1986. It was the most serious natural disaster in the Solomons in living memory. Nearly a third of the total population of 267,000 were driven from their homes and 150 people were killed, with damage estimates beginning in AUD 25 million. It has been estimated by the Solomon Islands Ministry of Economic Planning that it will take seven years for the economy to recover. This paper discusses the major events of the disaster episode by employing the Powell and Rayner model of “disaster‐time.” Factors relating to current disaster planning and management within the Solomon Islands are outlined. The paper also highlights assistance provided by Australia during the post‐impact sequence and illustrates the type of general disaster preparatory support which Australia provides to South Pacific.
Destuction and reconstruction: A Strategy for the war‐damaged areas of Iran
Authors: Amlrahmadl Hooshang
Published: December 2007

This paper outlines the maln elements of a comprehenslve, self‐reliant territorial reconstrouction strategy for the wardamaged areas of Iran by drawing from existing experinece including that of the Islamic Republic. After documenting that extent and type of damage, and argument is presented in favor of urgent action and the need for planning.

The relatinship beteeen the reconstruction strategy and national goals is particularly emphasled. National independence, defense and integration should guide the entire reconstruction process. Expanding defensive capacity of the border regions, territorial equalization of development, creation of an articulated system of reginal goverments, reduction of dependency on oil revenues, and adaption of a two‐tier technology policy are identified as major factor in achieving these goals.

comprehensivenss and self‐rellance are shown to be characteristics of planning for reconstruction for war destructions in contries where planning was applied, Similarly, reconstruction needs other types of organizations, particularly popular and co‐ordinating ones.

Reconstruction requlres among other things that existing and potential resourecs be identified and it is argued that these must be moblilzed befor they can be utillized. Different resources are mobiliz3ed differently. Various methods of mobilization are identified for mobilizing human, material and financial resoucrs.
Disasters and disabled persons: An examination of the safety needs of a neglected minority
Authors: Parr Arnold R.
Published: December 2007

Disasters do not affect everyone in the same way. Safety needs of the ten per cnet of the population who are disabled prior to disaster must be ascertained; contingency plans and preparations should be made to ensure that disabled persons. Consideration of the safety needs of disabled persons in disasters seems to have beenlargely neglected by emergency services and those voluntary and statutory organizations directly concerned with disablement.
Entitlements and the Wollo Famine of 1982–1985
Authors: Baulch Bob
Published: December 2007

The traglic recent events in Ethiopia and other parts of Africa have again foccussed attention on the different anaytical approaches to the problems iof famine. Perhaps the most important analytical contribution to this field has been Sen's “entitlements approach.” One of the case studies Sen used to articulate this approach was of the 1972–1973 famine in Wollo Province, Ethiopia. This article provides a provisional assessment of the famine process in the Wollo during 1982–1985 to set against the analysis by Sen of the earlier famine. Some striking contrasts are revealed.
Foodgrain disposals as early warning famine signals: A case from Burkina Faso*
Authors: McCorkle Constance M.
Published: December 2007

Recent research suggests that monitoring key events in social, economic, cultural and political systems may provide more timely, frequent, and reliable warnings of impending famine than monitoring physical processes alone. But empirical data on early warning distress signals in these arenas are slim. Based on anthropological investigations in a southern Volta Noire community of Burkina Faso (formerly Upper Volta) during the drought of 1983–1984, this paper outlines a variety of possible early warning signals in disposal systems for staple foodgrains ‐ the nutritional “bottom line” for farmers and herders in the West African savannah. Pre‐famine distress signals in five broad categories are discussed: changes in marketing patterns, non‐market exchanges, dietary practices, utilization of agricultural and pastoral labour, and ideological and sociopolitical behaviours. Data consist of both quantitative and qualitative comparisons of cereal disposals in these categories between 1983 and preceding years.
Food Targeting in Darfur: Save the Children Fund's Programme in 1986*
Authors: BUCKLEY RUTH
Published: December 2007

Emergency food aid has usually, if at all, been targeted through feeding centres. In Darfur, Sudan, SCF targeted food aid to the population on the basis of comprehensive household data. The decision to use this approach was taken in 1986 following the failure of both feeding centres and general distribution to meet emergency needs in 1984/85.

This report outlines the development of the food targeting system and the types of data used for making allocations. Further research is required in order to find solutions to questions raised by the experience, such as: How can NGOs and government authorities arrive at a definition of need which is acceptable to local government and donors?; What is the most practical method for implementing a targeted programme to a proportion of the population?; Should individuals be given assistance which will enable them to remain in non‐productive areas?; and would direct market intervention, food for work, or cash distribution be a more effective and less disruptive form of emergency aid in famine areas?
Refugee Income Generating Projects and Occupational Health
Authors: SIMMONDS STEPHANIE
Published: December 2007

The shift from purely emergency relief for refugees in developing countries to aid within the context of development strategies is slowly gathering momentum (UN, 1983; UNHCR, 1984; Simmonds, 1984). Such a move implies that if self‐reliance is to be a realistic goal then employment for refugees is essential; a number of income‐generating schemes are therefore being both proposed and developed (ILO, 1983 and 1984).

Many of these schemes have implications for the health of the refugees, so this paper summarises some occupational health hazards and offers suggestions for future action.
Peasant Survival Strategies in Ethiopia1
Authors: RAHMATO DESSALEGN
Published: December 2007

This paper focuses on peasant farmers in Ethiopia, and their behaviour as serious famine sets in. In many of the last seventeen years the crop yields on rain‐fed plots in drought‐prone areas have failed to meet the requirements of the peasant farmers and their families. Significant numbers have received food aid either at distribution points or in the shelters which developed in 1973 and 1984. Seeking food relief from external sources, however, is the last resort of peasants who have managed their dwindling resources for months, if not years, in order to survive.
The Role of Socio‐Economic Data in Food Needs Assessment and Monitoring
Authors: SHOHAM JEREMY , CLAY EDWARD
Published: December 2007

This paper reviews six case studies examined as part of a project to review targetting methodologies employed by non‐government organisations in Africa during the 1984‐6 food crisis. Most agencies have not yet fully evaluated the role of data in informing policy decisions during their respective emergency programmes. The case studies presented reflect a wide variety of approaches to targetting emergency food aid that are based largely on the use of ‘socio‐economic’ data. The recent emergency relief operations in Africa seem to indicate a change in relief agencies' approaches to the assessment and monitoring of needs of the affected populations. Earlier dependance on nutritional data has given way to an increasing reliance on the use of socio‐economic indicators. There was a wide variation in the case studies of the type of indicators collected and utilised in needs assessment and monitoring. There were those who relied almost exclusively on nutritional data to target resources during the 1984‐86 African crisis, and others whose experiences during that period lead them to attach more weight to socio‐economic data. Other agencies appear to have recognised the problems of relying solely on nutritional data to target food aid during their 1984–86 emergency programmes, and thus more or less abandoned classical anthropometric surveys in their needs assessment and monitoring methodologies during this period. Thus nutritional data has a less significant role in the decision making process than previously had been the case.
Coping with Riverbank Erosion Hazard and Displacement in Bangladesh: Survival Strategies and Adjustments
Authors: HAQUE C.E. , ZAMAN M.Q.
Published: December 2007

As a deltaic plain, Bangladesh annually experiences riverbank erosion hazard due to sudden and rapid channel shifting, particularly in the major floodplain areas of the country. Consequently, valuable cultivable land is lost; also village settlements, markets and towns are destroyed, displacing tens of thousands of people. This paper examines the magnitude of river channel migration and encroachment on land, and the nature of human adjustment systems in the Brahmaputra–Jamuna floodplain, by investigating aspects of the social and cultural dynamics of resettlement of the displaced people. Some policy measures are recommended to improve the ability of the people in the floodplain to cope with these hazards.
The Spitak (Armenia, USSR) Earthquake: Residential Building Typology and Seismic Behaviour
Authors: POMONIS ANTONIOS
Published: December 2007

The 1988 earthquake in Armenia was the most serious seismic disaster since the 1976 earthquake in Tangshan, China. At least 25,000 people lost their lives in a tremor of moderate magnitude and the USSR suffered a loss of more than 2.5 per cent of 1988's GDP. Research at the Martin Centre on the effects of earthquakes on human lives has shown an increase in global earthquake mortality rate, despite the well known improvements in some countries. The Armenian disaster was a warning to all of us concerned with natural or man‐made disasters. Areas of potential high hazard are pointed out for the sub‐Caucasian region. Construction practices similar to those in Armenia are certainly found in many other parts of the world, with some regional variations, and the fast assimilation of the lessons is an important target. The structural characteristics of all the residential building types existing in the affected area are presented in terms of their seismic vulnerability. Vulnerable points are discussed with a view to low cost interventions that will drastically improve the seismic safety of new buildings.
Ecological Stress and Political Coercion in the Sudan
Authors: SALIH M.A. MOHAMED
Published: December 2007

This article outlines the impact of state intervention on ecological relations in the Sudan. The establishment of large‐scale mechanised agricultural schemes; population and livestock concentration around water sources; and the evolution of large urban centres with high demands for firewood and charcoal have all contributed to ecological degradation. These effects have been coupled with the use of coercive measures to displace traditional farmers and pastoralists from their lands in favour of large‐scale farming schemes. The objectives of government policy have suffered a double retreat – from development to crisis management and from crisis management to the bare maintenance of compliance and order. The inability of the state to intervene on behalf of the victims of drought and famine has led to the use of coercion as the only means to legitimise its hold on power.
Desertification, Refugees and Regional Conflict in West Africa
Authors: NNOLI OKWUDIBA
Published: December 2007

This article documents the potential for inter‐state conflict in the migration of hundreds of thousands of famine refugees across international borders in West Africa. Nigeria and Ghana, for example, have to deal not only with the effects of land degradation in their northern territories but also with the influx of famine victims from Mali, Niger, Chad and Burkino Faso. These migrations put an enormous extra burden on the fragile and already overstretched social and economic infrastructures of the host countries. The construction of dams for irrigation and electricity generation in international river basins, is another cause of inter‐state conflict related to land degradation. The capacity of West African states to find peaceful solutions to these problems is being undermined by the increasing impoverishment and marginalisation of their populations. A self‐serving neo‐colonialist governing elite is caught in the economic stranglehold of the advanced capitalist nations. While there is thus no short term solution to the problem of land degradation, immediate steps should at least be taken to give legal protection to those who are forced to cross international borders because of drought and famine.
Environmental Degradation and Political Constraints in Ethiopia
Authors: STAHL MICHAEL
Published: December 2007

The article begins by outlining the extent and origins of environmental degradation in northern Ethiopia. Soil conservation and related environmental rehabilitation measures adopted by the Ministry of Agriculture, with donor assistance, are outlined and shown to be inadequate to reverse the trend of environmental degradation. Their scope and financing are too limited, there are too few immediate production returns for the peasants, and the conventional ‘top‐down’ implementation of the measures means that peasants participate in rehabilitation programmes as paid workers (food‐for‐work) rather than as responsible landowners. The post‐revolutionary government has continued the centralising and state‐building policies of its predecessors, substituting the state for feudal lords as the appropriator of peasant production and labour. The wars in Eritrea and Tigray consume the lion's share of the state's resources and development programmes have become increasingly extractive (procurement of grain at low prices, labour campaigns, etc.) and penetrative (relocation of population, collectivisation of agriculture, etc). The problem of land degradation is ultimately a political one: how to find a political formula within which efficient development administration can be combined with power sharing and cultural pluralism.
Redefining Decision: Implications for Managing Risk and Uncertainty
Authors: SMITH P.J.
Published: December 2007

The standard risk analysis paradigm is one of choice among alternative actions, each with a defined list of possible outcomes which can be compared on a probability‐weighted cost basis. The practice of extending this model into circumstances in which the possible outcomes are ill‐defined (but potentially disastrous), their relative probabilities are defined only subjectively, and the parties concerned have conflicting objectives, is dangerously flawed. An alternative paradigm is proposed which models consequential decisions as a process of building commitment to a course of action, including commitment to manage its (unknown) consequences. An important criterion here is unmanageability: the extent to which a particular course of action may rapidly generate severe, indeterminately adverse consequences, not manageable with existing resources and technology. This approach appears able to provide new and better decision tools in disaster‐vulnerable areas such as response to climatic change and regulation of potentially catastrophic technology.
The Parameters of Refugeeism and Flight: The Case of Laos
Authors: WATERS TONY
Published: December 2007

The circumstances of the flight of four ethnic groups from Laos are described and cornpared. It is found that different ethnic groups defined the fall of the Laotian government in 1975 differently. This affected why, how and when they fled. It is stressed that any explanation of refugee behavior must be in terms not only of individual motivation but also of group behavior. Conclusions are drawn about the role that social networks, sanctuary opportunities, perceptions of family unity, class, clanship, patron‐client relationships and traditions of mobility can play in making the decision to flee.
From Emergency to Social Security in Sudan – Part II: The Donor Response
Authors: DUFFIELD MARK
Published: December 2007

In the first part of this article I examined the crisis of subsistence in Sudan resulting from the commercial development of the North and the war in the South. An attempt was also made to relate the deepening impoverishment that this represents to a decay in governance. There is a tendency amongst donor and government officials, which is reflected in the literature, to regard the unfolding crisis as the transitory result of exceptional circumstances rather than as irreversible and therefore warranting a major revaluation of policy. As a consequence, social security and emergency planning has generally been of an emergency type. In this, the final part of the article, I examine the donor response in more detail. In particular, I argue that the decay of governance is so extensive that a donor‐led system of social security has been imposed on Sudan. This system has a number of characteristics, the most important of which is that it exists in the absence of the political renewal and democratisation that would be necessary for the technical solutions it advocates to be implemented. The result is that donor‐led security, which is typical of the Horn of Africa, proceeds in a relation of antagonism to the sovereign power, a situation which significantly reduces the efficiency of the measures undertaken.
Reducing Vulnerability to Drought and Famine: Developmental Approaches to Relief
Authors: ANDERSON MARY B. , WOODROW PETER J.
Published: December 2007

In this paper we present salient lessons learned through the International Relief/Development Project about the relationships between disasters and development. We discuss approaches to famine response and prevention, including the impact of global food distribution efforts on the capacities of people affected by famine and offer criteria for planning famine relief so that it will promote systemic, long term development of these capacities. We first describe a collaborative research project which showed that it is possible for international famine assistance either to promote the capacities of people who suffer from famine so that they are better able to handle future food crises, or to leave those it purports to help worse off and even more vulnerable to subsequent disasters. We then illustrate alternative strategies for promoting development in the midst of crisis by presenting information about a number of famine response programs and analyzing their impact on capacities and vulnerabilities.
Mobility Due to Natural Disaster: Theoretical Considerations and Preliminary Analyses
Authors: MORROW‐JONES HAZEL A. , MORROW‐JONES CHARLES R.
Published: December 2007

Relatively little of the work on natural disasters has focused on people who do not return to their pre‐disaster homes. This study uses Annual Housing Survey data from 1974 through 1981 to examine moving households who attribute their moves to a natural disaster. The focus is on three issues: the characteristics of the movers and their recovery; a comparison with other involuntary movers (i.e., public and private displacees); and the amount of innovating or conserving behavior shown by different groups of movers and the impact of these behaviors on each group's recovery after the move. The paper compares disaster movers to all movers and to other forced movers. Distinct differences between the groups in their characteristics and housing recovery exist. The paper concludes with suggestions for continued analysis and policy implications.
Effective Communication between the Scientific Community and the Media
Authors: MARCHI BRUNA DE
Published: December 2007

There are many accounts of hazard warnings which, although received by the target population, have not been appropriately understood and/or acted upon. In all such cases, what needs to be explored is a social relational failure rather than a technological one. Although the relationship between the mass media and the general public has been thoroughly explored, that between the media and the scientific community has been generally neglected. Scientists who communicate warning information to the media must recognise the background, commitments, values, needs and expectations of those they communicate with. Their efforts should be directed at conveying information in a way which is useful to the target population and, at the same time, which appeals to the media. Various “communication strategies” for the achievement of this goal are outlined.
Livelihood Patterns of Displaced Households in Greater Khartoum
Authors: HAMID GAMAL MAHMOUD
Published: December 2007

Members of impoverished households in Greater Khartoum, who have been displaced from their homelands by famine and civil war, gain a livelihood by utilising a wide variety of subsistence activities and sources. These include moonlighting, income diversification and pooling, exchange relations, scavenging, relief supplies from aid agencies and remittances from relatives working in other areas. This finding challenges the widely held view of the displaced as dependent and parasitic on the wider urban community. Several public policies are identified which have a detrimental effect on the livelihood of the displaced.
Interviews with Key Informants and Household Surveys: Central Ethiopia
Authors: ATKINSON SARAH J.
Published: December 2007

Nutrition surveillance as part of, or complement to, the famine early warning system in Ethiopia has been used to collect reports on local food security from community leaders using structured interviews. As this information is crucial in the interpretation of other quantitative data, it is important to assess the extent to which leaders' information reflects the food related behaviour of the community. Information on various socio‐economic variables related to nutrition were collected at the household level and at the community level through structured interviews with householders and community leaders. The information given by householders and by community leaders was compared. In general the correspondence between the two was good and the continued collection of local information from local leaders justified. There were a few topics on which information might be missed using only the local leader and ways to improve collecting this information are discussed.
Childhood Immunisation in Rural Afghanistan: The EPI Programme, 1987–91
Authors: BRABANT KOENRAAD VAN
Published: December 2007

A decade of outright war followed by civil strife and conflict has hindered the development of health care services for the population of rural Afghanistan. Despite the absence of a functional health care system and the fragmentation of the Afghan resistance, and despite widely held views to the contrary, it has proved possible to set up a technically valid and politically acceptable Expanded Programme of Immunisation (EPI). This paper discusses some of its technical and programmatic aspects and the rationale behind some of the very unusual choices made – such as the use of DPTP, the inclusion of girls 3–14 years old for TT immunisation, a vertical programme structure and a predominance of mobile and outreach strategies. The paper argues against the mindless use of global or handbook recipes. The keys to success have been strategic vision, intimate knowledge of the local context and pragmatic choices for options that are simple and effective.
Deaths in Natural Hazards in the Solomon Islands
Authors: BLONG R.J. , RADFORD D.A.
Published: December 2007

Archival and library search techniques have been used to establish extensive databases on deaths and damage resulting from natural hazards in the Solomon Islands. Although the records of fatalities are certainly incomplete, volcanic eruptions, tropical cyclones, landslides, tsunami and earthquakes appear to have been the most important. Only 22 per cent of the recorded deaths have resulted from meteorological hazards but a single event could change this proportion significantly. Five events in the fatality database account for 88 per cent of the recorded deaths. Future death tolls are also likely to be dominated by a small number of events. While the expected number of deaths in a given period is dependent upon the length of record considered, it is clear that a disaster which kills one hundred or more people in the Solomons can be expected more frequently than once in a hundred years.
Coping with Drought and Food Insecurity in Ethiopia
Authors: WEBB PATRICK
Published: December 2007

In this article I examine the impact of drought on farm households in Ethiopia and their response to crisis conditions. I ask whether every household in a community is equally affected by drought and what households do to mitigate the effects of drought and associated food insecurity. Information on production, income and food consumption is disaggregated by agroecological zone (highland and lowland), and by socioeconomic strata (relatively wealthy versus poor). Such detailed analysis permits an improved understanding of why the poor are much more vulnerable than the wealthy to drought and associated famines and why they need to be more effectively targeted by relief and development interventions. In a world of limited public resources for crisis intervention, such understanding is crucial to the design of improved policies and projects for reaching people most at risk.
Operational Value of Anthropometric Surveillance in Famine Early Warning and Relief: Wollo Region, Ethiopia, 1987–88
Authors: KELLY MARION
Published: December 2007

In this article I examine the operational implications of the findings reported in ‘Entitlements, Coping Mechanisms and Indicators of Access to Food: Wollo Region, Ethiopia, 1987–88’ (Kelly, 1992). The usefulness of anthropometric and other indicators for early warning and relief planning in Wollo is assessed by comparing the findings of Save the Children Fund's nutritional surveillance programme with those of the Early Warning and Planning Service of the Ethiopian government's Relief and Rehabilitation Commission. Case studies are used to illustrate the value of anthropometric and other indicators for targeting relief food and monitoring its effects. The costs of monitoring various indicators are then considered, and the cost of the Save the Children Fund programme is compared with that of other programmes. It is argued that in Wollo, anthropometric surveillance is a cost‐effective means of improving early warning, planning, targeting and monitoring.
Recent Trends in the International Relief System
Authors: BORTON JOHN
Published: December 2007

Since 1991 the international relief system has been undergoing a process of rapid and fundamental change associated with the end of the Cold War period. The principal changes concern (i) the international community's approach to national sovereignty and the ‘right’ of armed intervention in support of humanitarian objectives, and (ii) organisatwnal changes aimed at improving the coordination and effectiveness of the response by donor organisations and the United Nations. This paper describes these changes and attempts to place them in the context of earlier trends within the international relief system, notably the enhanced role of non‐governmental organisations, which occurred during the 1980s.
The 1992 ‘Cairo Earthquake’: Cause, Effect and Response
Authors: DEGG MARTIN
Published: December 2007

This paper examines the geological and socio‐political setting of the 1992 earthquake in northern Egypt. The main conclusions concern the importance of surface geology in controlling the nature of the earthquake impact, and the role of poor construction and maintenance standards (and lapses in building regulation enforcement) in influencing the vulnerability of buildings to failure. The heaviest human losses were associated with two main types of construction: firstly the old, dilapidated adobe houses of the poor in rural areas and in Cairo's inner city slums, and secondly certain modern, engineered (in some cases illegally) high‐rise concrete constructions inhabited by the wealthy. The paper concludes by analysing the immediate response of the government and some non‐governmental organisations in Egypt to the earthquake. Politicisation of the event is linked to broader issues of economic and social reform in the country and to the rise of Islamic Fundamentalist activity in all its forms.