bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Preliminary assessment of rockslide and rockfall hazards using a DEM (Oppstadhornet, Norway)
Authors: Derron M.-H. , Jaboyedoff M. , Blikra L. H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The increasing availability and precision of digital elevation model (DEM) helps in the assessment of landslide prone areas where only few data are available. This approach is performed in 6 main steps which include: DEM creation; identification of geomorphologic features; determination of the main sets of discontinuities; mapping of the most likely dangerous structures; preliminary rock-fall assessment; estimation of the large instabilities volumes. The method is applied to two the cases studies in the Oppstadhornet mountain (730m alt): (1) a 10 millions m3 slow-moving rockslide and (2) a potential high-energy rock falling prone area. The orientations of the foliation and of the major discontinuities have been determined directly from the DEM. These results are in very good agreement with field measurements. Spatial arrangements of discontinuities and foliation with the topography revealed hazardous structures. Maps of potential occurrence of these hazardous structures show highly probable sliding areas at the foot of the main landslide and potential rock falls in the eastern part of the mountain.
Reconsidering the risk assessment concept: Standardizing the impact description as a building block for vulnerability assessment
Authors: Hollenstein K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Risk assessments for natural hazards are becoming more widely used and accepted. Using an extended definition of risk, it becomes obvious that performant procedures for vulnerability assessments are vital for the success of the risk concept. However, there are large gaps in knowledge about vulnerability. To alleviate the situation, a conceptual extension of the scope of existing and new models is suggested. The basis of the suggested concept is a stadardization of the output of hazard assessments. This is achieved by defining states of the target objects that depend on the impact and at the same time affect the object's performance characteristics. The possible state variables can be related to a limited set of impact descriptors termed generic impact description interface. The concept suggests that both hazard and vulnerability assessment models are developed according to the specification of this interface, thus facilitating modularized risk assessments. Potential problems related to the application of the concept include acceptance issues and the lacking accuracy of transformation of outputs of existing models. Potential applications and simple examples for adapting existing models are briefly discussed.
Slope processes and related risk appearance within the Icelandic Westfjords during the twentieth century
Authors: Decaulne A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In North-western Iceland, records of slope processes were increasing during the twentieth century. Few dramatic events during the last decades highlighted the danger due to slope dynamics, leaving local populations in a risk situation that was merely unknown before 1970. The recent snow-avalanche, debris-flow and rock-fall activity underlined that the most frequent processes are not these with the largest human impact. In fact, the most catastrophic events were the extreme ones, following directly from a low frequency and a high magnitude. The purpose of this paper is to draw a parallel history of natural hazard and residence spatial extension, for an accurate understanding of the present-day risk situation, as the population growth markedly increased during the same time. Different quantitative and qualitative methods are applied. Geomorphological investigations locate the main threaten areas, in the path of slope processes release evidences, i.e. suitable slope morphology and/or inherited/actual forms. By a collection of dating data, as historic records and lichenometrical analysis, the frequency of given magnitude events is known. Climatic analysis clarifies the triggering meteorological conditions of slope processes and offers an overview of climate fluctuation during the investigated period; wind speed and direction is critical to hazardous snow-avalanche departure and snowmelt is crucial for debris-flow release. The findings clearly indicate that a combination of spatial expansion of inhabited areas and a lack of slope processes knowledge at the expansion time led to a recent and progressive risk appearance due to snow avalanches (including slush flows), debris flows and rock fall in most towns and villages of North-western Iceland.
Modelling public risk evaluation of natural hazards: a conceptual approach
Authors: Plattner Th.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In recent years, the dealing with natural hazards in Switzerland has shifted away from being hazard-oriented towards a risk-based approach. Decreasing societal acceptance of risk, accompanied by increasing marginal costs of protective measures and decreasing financial resources cause an optimization problem. Therefore, the new focus lies on the mitigation of the hazard's risk in accordance with economical, ecological and social considerations. This modern proceeding requires an approach in which not only technological, engineering or scientific aspects of the definition of the hazard or the computation of the risk are considered, but also the public concerns about the acceptance of these risks. These aspects of a modern risk approach enable a comprehensive assessment of the (risk) situation and, thus, sound risk management decisions. In Switzerland, however, the competent authorities suffer from a lack of decision criteria, as they don't know what risk level the public is willing to accept. Consequently, there exists a need for the authorities to know what the society thinks about risks. A formalized model that allows at least a crude simulation of the public risk evaluation could therefore be a useful tool to support effective and efficient risk mitigation measures. This paper presents a conceptual approach of such an evaluation model using perception affecting factors PAF, evaluation criteria EC and several factors without any immediate relation to the risk itself, but to the evaluating person. Finally, the decision about the acceptance Acc of a certain risk i is made by a comparison of the perceived risk Ri,perc with the acceptable risk Ri,acc.
Note on seismic hazard assessment using gradient of uplift velocities in the Turan block (Central Asia)
Authors: Jaboyedoff M. , Derron M.-H. , Manby G. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Uplift gradients can provide the location of highly strained zones, which can be considered to be seismic. The Turan block (Central Asia) contains zones with high gradient of uplift velocities, above the threshold 0.04mm km-1year-1. Some of these zones are associated with important seismic activity and others are not correlated with any recent important recorded earthquakes, however, recent faults scarps as well as diverted rivers may indicate a recent tectonic activity. This threshold of gradient is probably a significant rheologic property of the upper crust. On the basis of these considerations the Uzboy river area is proposed as a potential high seismic hazard zone.
Debris flow run off simulation and verification ‒ case study of Chen-You-Lan Watershed, Taiwan
Authors: Lin M.-L. , Wang K.-L. , Huang J.-J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In 1996 typhoon Herb struck the central Taiwan area, causing severe debris flow in many subwatersheds of the Chen-You-Lan river watershed. More severe cases of debris flow occurred following Chi-Chi earthquake, 1999. In order to identify the potentially affected area and its severity, the ability to simulate the flow route of debris is desirable. In this research numerical simulation of debris flow deposition process had been carried out using FLO-2D adopting Chui-Sue river watershed as the study area. Sensitivity study of parameters used in the numerical model was conducted and adjustments were made empirically. The micro-geomorphic database of Chui-Sue river watershed was generated and analyzed to understand the terrain variations caused by the debris flow. Based on the micro-geomorphic analysis, the debris deposition in the Chui-Sue river watershed in the downstream area, and the position and volume of debris deposition were determined. The simulated results appeared to agree fairly well with the results of micro-geomorphic study of the area when not affected by other inflow rivers, and the trends of debris distribution in the study area appeared to be fairly consistent.
A limited area model intercomparison on the "Montserrat-2000" flash-flood event using statistical and deterministic methods
Authors: Mariani S. , Casaioli M. , Accadia C. , Llasat M. C. , Pasi F. , Davolio S. , Elementi M. , Ficca G. , Romero R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the scope of the European project Hydroptimet, INTERREG IIIB-MEDOCC programme, limited area model (LAM) intercomparison of intense events that produced many damages to people and territory is performed. As the comparison is limited to single case studies, the work is not meant to provide a measure of the different models' skill, but to identify the key model factors useful to give a good forecast on such a kind of meteorological phenomena. This work focuses on the Spanish flash-flood event, also known as "Montserrat-2000" event. The study is performed using forecast data from seven operational LAMs, placed at partners' disposal via the Hydroptimet ftp site, and observed data from Catalonia rain gauge network. To improve the event analysis, satellite rainfall estimates have been also considered. For statistical evaluation of quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs), several non-parametric skill scores based on contingency tables have been used. Furthermore, for each model run it has been possible to identify Catalonia regions affected by misses and false alarms using contingency table elements. Moreover, the standard "eyeball" analysis of forecast and observed precipitation fields has been supported by the use of a state-of-the-art diagnostic method, the contiguous rain area (CRA) analysis. This method allows to quantify the spatial shift forecast error and to identify the error sources that affected each model forecasts. High-resolution modelling and domain size seem to have a key role for providing a skillful forecast. Further work is needed to support this statement, including verification using a wider observational data set.
Multifractal variability in geoelectrical signals and correlations with seismicity: a study case in southern Italy
Authors: Telesca L. , Colangelo G. , Lapenna V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Multifractal fluctuations in the time dynamics of geoelectrical data, recorded in a seismic area of southern Italy, have been revealed using the Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (MF-DFA), which allows to detect multifractality in nonstationary signals. Our findings show that the geoelectrical time series, recorded in the seismic area of southern Apennine Chain (Italy), is multifractal. The time evolution of the multifractality suggests that the multifractal degree increases prior the occurrence of earthquakes. This study aims to propose another approach to investigate the complex dynamics of earthquake-related geoelectrical signals.
An operational flash-flood forecasting chain applied to the test cases of the EU project HYDROPTIMET
Authors: Taramasso A. C. , Gabellani S. , Parodi A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The application of a flash-flood prediction chain, developed by CIMA, to some testcases for the Tanaro river basin in the framework of the EU project HYDROPTIMET is presented here. The components of the CIMA chain are: forecast rainfall depths, a stochastic downscaling procedure and a hydrological model. Different meteorological Limited Area Models (LAMs) provide the rainfall input to the hydrological component. The flash-flood prediction chain is run both in a deterministic and in a probabilistic configuration. The sensitivity of forecasting chain performances to different LAMs providing rainfall forecasts is discussed. The results of the application show how the probabilistic forecasting system can give, especially in the case of convective events, a valuable contribution in addressing the uncertainty at different spatio-temporal scales involved in the flash flood forecasting problem in small and medium basins with complex orography.
The 8 and 9 September 2002 flash flood event in France: a model intercomparison
Authors: Anquetin S. , Yates E. , Ducrocq V. , Samouillan S. , Chancibault K. , Davolio S. , Accadia C. , Casaioli M. , Mariani S. , Ficca G. , Gozzini B. , Pasi F. , Pasqui M. , Garcia A. , Martorell M. , Romero R. , Chessa P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Within the framework of the European Interreg IIIb Medocc program, the HYDROPTIMET project aims at the optimization of the hydrometeorological forecasting tools in the context of intense precipitation within complex topography. Therefore, some meteorological forecast models and hydrological models were tested on four Mediterranean flash-flood events. One of them occured in France where the South-eastern ridge of the French "Massif Central", the Gard region, experienced a devastating flood on 8 and 9 September 2002. 24 people were killed during this event and the economic damage was estimated at 1.2 billion euros. To built the next generation of the hydrometeorological forecasting chain that will be able to capture such localized and fast events and the resulting discharges, the forecasted rain fields might be improved to be relevant for hydrological purposes. In such context, this paper presents the results of the evaluation methodology proposed by Yates et al. (2005) that highlights the relevant hydrological scales of a simulated rain field. Simulated rain fields of 7 meteorological model runs concerning with the French event are therefore evaluated for different accumulation times. The dynamics of these models are either based on non-hydrostatic or hydrostatic equation systems. Moreover, these models were run under different configurations (resolution, initial conditions). The classical score analysis and the areal evaluation of the simulated rain fields are then performed in order to put forward the main simulation characteristics that improve the quantitative precipitation forecast. The conclusions draw some recommendations on the value of the quantitative precipitation forecasts and way to use it for quantitative discharge forecasts within mountainous areas.
The 30 December 2002 landslide-induced tsunamis in Stromboli: sequence of the events reconstructed from the eyewitness accounts
Authors: Tinti S. , Manucci A. , Pagnoni G. , Armigliato A. , Zaniboni F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. On 30 December 2002 the coast of the volcanic island of Stromboli, in the Tyrrhenian sea, Italy, was attacked by two tsunamis generated by landslides that took place on the north-west flank of the volcano. The landslides and the tsunamis represented the most impressive and threatening episodes of a strong effusive eruption, started on 28 December from a new vent which opened close to the north-east crater of the volcano. In spite of the intensified monitoring carried out in response to the eruption, the landslides and the ensuing tsunamis were not foreseen, and the available instrumental data are insufficient to allow a precise reconstruction of the sequence of the events. The seismic network recorded two main landslides along the steep slope of Sciara del Fuoco, with onset around 13:15 and 13:23 local time (GMT+1). The tsunamis were the direct consequence of the mass movements. Three main post-event surveys helped make assessment on the wave impact on the coast. In this paper the attention is focussed on the accounts of the eye-witnesses, that help us clarify and understand what happened. People in the source area (Sciara del Fuoco) reported a small-volume subaerial slide taking place first, then a sharp cut forming in the sea water down to the sea floor (about 10–20 m deep) and propagating almost parallel to the coastline, be concomitantly associated with a sea retreat and a subsequent sea advance. It is suggested here that the cut was the effect of a large submarine landslide that detached from very close to the coast and produced the 13:15 signal in the recorded seismograms. The second, mostly subaerial, slump was observed to slide down 7–8 min later and to excite a train of waves some distance offshore. Not all the witnesses realised that two distinct tsunamis occurred. The tsunami period was probably in the order of 100 s, but shorter period crests were seen to travel on the top of the long-period waves by several persons. The duration of each tsunami was appreciated to be around 5–7 min. It is difficult to ascertain which tsunami was the largest, since there is no full agreement among the observers, but certainly by accounts both were characterised by large destructive waves.
Modelling debris flows down general channels
Authors: Pudasaini S. P. , Wang Y. , Hutter K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper is an extension of the single-phase cohesionless dry granular avalanche model over curved and twisted channels proposed by Pudasaini and Hutter (2003). It is a generalisation of the Savage and Hutter (1989, 1991) equations based on simple channel topography to a two-phase fluid-solid mixture of debris material. Important terms emerging from the correct treatment of the kinematic and dynamic boundary condition, and the variable basal topography are systematically taken into account. For vanishing fluid contribution and torsion-free channel topography our new model equations exactly degenerate to the previous Savage-Hutter model equations while such a degeneration was not possible by the Iverson and Denlinger (2001) model, which, in fact, also aimed to extend the Savage and Hutter model. The model equations of this paper have been rigorously derived; they include the effects of the curvature and torsion of the topography, generally for arbitrarily curved and twisted channels of variable channel width. The equations are put into a standard conservative form of partial differential equations. From these one can easily infer the importance and influence of the pore-fluid-pressure distribution in debris flow dynamics. The solid-phase is modelled by applying a Coulomb dry friction law whereas the fluid phase is assumed to be an incompressible Newtonian fluid. Input parameters of the equations are the internal and bed friction angles of the solid particles, the viscosity and volume fraction of the fluid, the total mixture density and the pore pressure distribution of the fluid at the bed. Given the bed topography and initial geometry and the initial velocity profile of the debris mixture, the model equations are able to describe the dynamics of the depth profile and bed parallel depth-averaged velocity distribution from the initial position to the final deposit. A shock capturing, total variation diminishing numerical scheme is implemented to solve the highly non-linear equations. Simulation results present the combined effects of curvature, torsion and pore pressure on the dynamics of the flow over a general basal topography. These simulation results reveal new physical insight of debris flows over such non-trivial topography. Model equations are applied to laboratory avalanche and debris-flow-flume tests. Very good agreement between the theory and experiments is established.
Wavelet maxima curves of surface latent heat flux anomalies associated with Indian earthquakes
Authors: Cervone G. , Singh R. P. , Kafatos M. , Yu C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Wavelet maxima curves of surface latent heat flux (SLHF) have been recently used to provide early warning information about coastal earthquakes. The present paper reports further validations of the spatial and temporal analysis of wavelet maxima curves associated with earthquakes occurred in different parts of the Indian sub-continent. Prominent anomalies that exhibit spatial and temporal continuity are found in case of coastal earthquakes, while no anomaly is detected in case of intraplate earthquakes. The precursory SLHF anomalies are found up to 2 weeks prior to the main earthquake event, with an extent area of up to 600km.
Dynamics and conceptual model of the Rossena castle landslide (Northern Apennines, Italy)
Authors: Chelli A. , Mandrone G. , Ruffini A. , Truffelli G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the Northern Apennines there are many historical villages and castles, which are of great value and represent a cultural heritage of great importance. Their presence within a territory greatly affected by landslide hazards creates, in many circumstances, the need to solve problems of land management and to act for the preservation of historical monuments. This paper describe an interesting landslide, failed during the night of 28 February 2004, that involved the village of Rossena: the failure damaged the village (Fig. 1), the road and the fields down to the stream but, fortunately, the castle just upslope the village was not involved at all. The 10th century massive castle of Rossena stands on the top of a cliff at about 500 m a.s.l., on the border between the provinces of Parma and Reggio Emilia, and it is surrounded by a small ancient village. The castle of Rossena is the best preserved stronghold of the Longobard times, enlarged and reinforced in the tenth century and partially rebuilt by Bonifacio, the father of Matilda of Canossa (the Vice-Queen of Italy and probably the most important woman in the Middle Ages) as a defensive structure guarding the Enza Valley. In addition, at Conossa, very close to Rossena, there was the meeting between Pope Gregory VII and the Emperor of Germany Henry IV, during the historical event known as "fight for the investitures". For these reasons, the area of Rossena is one of the most relevant from a historical point of view in the entire western part of the Emilia Romagna Region and it also has a high value as a geosite (Coratza et al., 2004).
A magnetotelluric study of the sensitivity of an area to seismoelectric signals
Authors: Balasis G. , Bedrosian P. A. , Eftaxias K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. During recent years, efforts at better understanding the physical properties of precursory ultra-low frequency pre-seismic electric signals (SES) have been intensified. Experiments show that SES cannot be observed at all points of the Earth's surface but only at certain so-called sensitive sites. Moreover, a sensitive site is capable of collecting SES from only a restricted number of seismic areas (selectivity effect). Therefore the installation of a permanent station appropriate for SES collection should necessarily be preceded by a pilot study over a broad area and for a long duration. In short, a number of temporary stations are installed and, after the occurrence of several significant earthquakes (EQs) from a given seismic area, the most appropriate (if any) of these temporary stations, in the sense that they happen to collect SES, can be selected as permanent. Such a long experiment constitutes a serious disadvantage in identifying a site as SES sensitive. However, the SES sensitivity of a site should be related to the geoelectric structure of the area that hosts the site as well as the regional geoelectric structure between the station and the seismic focal area. Thus, knowledge of the local and regional geoelectric structure can dramatically reduce the time involved in identifying SES sites. In this paper the magnetotelluric method is used to investigate the conductivity structure of an area where a permanent SES station is in operation. Although general conclusions cannot be drawn, the area surrounding an SES site near Ioannina, Greece is characterized by: (1) major faults in the vicinity; (2) highly resistive structure flanked by abrupt conductivity contrasts associated with large-scale geologic contacts, and (3) local inhomogeneities in conductivity structure. The above results are consistent with the fact that electric field amplitudes from remotely-generated signals should be appreciably stronger at such sites when compared to neighboring sites.
A debris-flow monitoring devices and methods bibliography
Authors: Itakura Y. , Inaba H. , Sawada T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Debris-flow monitoring has two functions, warning and modeling. The warning function includes the following parameters: occurrence prediction and detection, proximity sensing, and discharge-estimation. The parameters obtained from debris-flow measurements can deduce a numerical model for creating a hazard map and designing various types of control structures to mitigate the hazards. Many devices and methods of monitoring are tabulated here for comparative study. Some of them are in operation. Advanced comparative studies lead to an improvement in debris-flow monitoring, an integrated system that can be applied to any torrent, and a breakthrough in future developments.
Infiltration, seepage and slope instability mechanisms during the 20–21 November 2000 rainstorm in Tuscany, central Italy
Authors: Tofani V. , Dapporto S. , Vannocci P. , Casagli N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. On 20–21 November 2000, a storm of high intensity, with a estimated return period of more than 100 years, triggered over 50 landslides within the province of Pistoia in Tuscany (Italy). These failures can be defined as complex earth slides- earth flows. One of the documented landslides has been investigated by modelling the ground water infiltration process, the positive and negative pore water pressure variations and the effects of these variations on slope stability during the rainfall event. Morphometric and geotechnical analyses were carried out through a series of in-situ and laboratory tests, the results of which were used as input for the modelling process. The surface infiltration rate was initially simulated using the rainfall recorded at the nearest raingauge station. Finite element seepage analysis for transient conditions were then employed to model the changes in pore water pressure during the storm event, using the computed infiltration rate as the ground surface boundary condition. Finally, the limit equilibrium slope stability method was applied to calculate the variations in the factor of safety during the event and thereby determine the critical time of instability. For the investigated site the trend of the factor of safety indicates that the critical time for failure occurs about 18 h after the storm commences, and highlights the key role played by the soil permeability and thickness in controlling the response in terms of slope instability.
Landslide hazard assessment in the Collazzone area, Umbria, Central Italy
Authors: Guzzetti F. , Galli M. , Reichenbach P. , Ardizzone F. , Cardinali M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We present the results of the application of a recently proposed model to determine landslide hazard. The model predicts where landslides will occur, how frequently they will occur, and how large they will be in a given area. For the Collazzone area, in the central Italian Apennines, we prepared a multi-temporal inventory map through the interpretation of multiple sets of aerial photographs taken between 1941 and 1997 and field surveys conducted in the period between 1998 and 2004. We then partitioned the 79 square kilometres study area into 894 slope units, and obtained the probability of spatial occurrence of landslides by discriminant analysis of thematic variables, including morphology, lithology, structure and land use. For each slope unit, we computed the expected landslide recurrence by dividing the total number of landslide events inventoried in the terrain unit by the time span of the investigated period. Assuming landslide recurrence was constant, and adopting a Poisson probability model, we determined the exceedance probability of having one or more landslides in each slope unit, for different periods. We obtained the probability of landslide size, a proxy for landslide magnitude, by analysing the frequency-area statistics of landslides, obtained from the multi-temporal inventory map. Lastly, assuming independence, we determined landslide hazard for each slope unit as the joint probability of landslide size, of landslide temporal occurrence, and of landslide spatial occurrence.
Real-size experiments and 3-D simulation of rockfall on forested and non-forested slopes
Authors: Dorren L. K. A. , Berger F. , Putters U. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Only a few rockfall simulation models take into account the mitigating effect of existing forest cover. The objective of our study was to improve the generic rockfall simulation model RockyFor, which does take the effect of forest stands into account, thereby developing a clear method for quantifying and modelling slope surface characteristics based on quantitative field data. To obtain these data we carried out 218 real-size rockfall experiments on forested and non-forested sites on a mountain slope in the French Alps. On the basis of a polygon map representing different diameter classes of the material covering the slope, we determine the mean obstacle height (MOH) for each homogeneous unit at the experimental sites. We proposed an algorithm for calculating the tangential coefficient of restitution using the MOH. Comparing the simulated and observed data from the real-size rockfall experiments showed that the 3-D combined deterministic-probabilistic rockfall simulation model RockyFor accurately predicted rockfall events on a non-forested (Root Mean Square Error = 17%) and a forested site (Root Mean Square Error = 12%). We conclude that for further improvement of rockfall-forest simulation on different slope types more quantitative data is required on (1) the energy dissipative capacity of shrubs and bushes (e.g. in coppice stands), (2) the effect of the slope material, (3) the rock shape as well as the rock size, and (4) the tangential and normal coefficient of restitution. Based on the presented results we can state that the RockyFor model could contribute to better taking into account the mitigating effect of the existing forest cover when planning protective measures.
Comparison of flow resistance relations for debris flows using a one-dimensional finite element simulation model
Authors: Naef D. , Rickenmann D. , Rutschmann P. , McArdell B. W
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper describes a one-dimensional finite element code for debris flows developed to model the flow within a steep channel and the stopping conditions on the fan. The code allows the systematic comparison of a wide variety of previously proposed one-phase flow resistance laws using the same finite element solution method. The one-dimensional depth-averaged equations of motion and the numerical model are explained. The model and implementation of the flow resistance relations was validated using published analytical results for the dam break case. Reasonable agreement for the front velocities and stopping location for a debris-flow event in the Kamikamihori torrent in Japan can be achieved with turbulent flow resistance relations including "stop" terms which allow the flow to come to rest on a gently sloping surface. While it is possible to match the overall bulk flow behavior using relatively simple flow resistance relations, they must be calibrated. A sensitivity analysis showed that the shape of the upstream input hydrograph does not much affect the flow conditions in the lower part of the flow path, whereas the event volume is much more important.
The use of radar in hydrological modeling in the Czech Republic – case studies of flash floods
Authors: Šálek M. , Brezková L. , Novák P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Flash flood induced by severe convection is the hydrometeorological phenomenon that is very difficult to forecast. However, the implementation of radar measurements, especially radar-based Quantitative Precipitation Estimate (QPE) and/or radar-based quantitative Precipitation Nowcast (QPN) can improve this situation. If the radar is able to capture the development of severe convection and can produce reasonably accurate QPE in short time intervals (e.g. 10 min), then it can be used also with hydrological model. A hydrological model named Hydrog was used for investigation of simulation and possible forecasts of two flash floods that took place in the Czech Republic in 2002 and 2003. The precipitation input consisted of mean-field-bias-adjusted or original radar 10-min estimates along with quantitative precipitation nowcasts up to 2 h based on COTREC method (extrapolation). Taking into account all the limited predictability of the severe convection development and the errors of the radar-based precipitation estimates, the aim of the simulations was to find out to what extend the hydrometeorological prediction system, specifically tuned for these events, was able to forecast a the flash floods. As assumed, the hydrometeorological simulations of the streamflow forecasts lagged behind the actual development but there is still some potential for successful warning, especially for areas where the flood hits lately.
Improved radar rainfall estimation at ground level
Authors: Wesson S. M. , Pegram G. G. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A technique has been developed to provide an estimate of the rainfall reaching the earth's surface by extrapolating radar data contained aloft to ground level, simultaneously estimating unknown data in the radar volume scan. The technique has been developed so as to be computationally fast, to work in real time and comprises the following steps. A rainfall classification algorithm is applied to separate the rainfall into two separate types: convective and stratiform rainfall. Climatological semivariograms based on the rainfall type are then defined and justified by testing, which result in a fast and effective means of determining the semivariogram parameters anywhere in the radar volume scan. Then, extrapolations to ground level are computed by utilising 3-D Universal and Ordinary Cascade Kriging; computational efficiency and stability in Kriging are ensured by using a nearest neighbours approach and a Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) matrix rank reduction technique. To validate the proposed technique, a statistical comparison between the temporally accumulated radar estimates and the Block Kriged raingauge estimates is carried out over matching areas, for selected rainfall events, to determine the quality of the rainfall estimates at ground level.
Site investigation and modelling at "La Maina" landslide (Carnian Alps, Italy)
Authors: Marcato G. , Mantovani M. , Pasuto A. , Silvano S. , Tagliavini F. , Zabuski L. , Zannoni A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Sauris reservoir is a hydroelectric basin closed downstream by a 136 m high, double arc concrete dam. The dam is firmly anchored to a consistent rock (Dolomia dello Schlern), but the Lower Triassic clayey formations, cropping out especially in the lower part of the slopes, have made the whole catchment basin increasingly prone to landslides. In recent years, the "La Maina landslide" has opened up several joints over a surface of about 100 000 m2, displacing about 1 500 000 m3 of material. Particular attention is now being given to the evolution of the instability area, as the reservoir is located at the foot of the landslide. Under the commission of the Regional Authority for Civil Protection a numerical modelling simulation in a pseudo-time condition of the slope was developed, in order to understand the risk for transport infrastructures, for some houses and for the reservoir and to take urgent mesaures to stabilize the slope. A monitoring system consisting of four inclinometers, three wire extensometers and ten GPS bench-mark pillars was immediately set up to check on surface and deep displacements. The data collected and the geological and geomorphological evidences was used to carry out a numerical simulation. The reliability of the results was checked by comparing the model with the morphological evidence of the movement. The mitigation measures were designed and realised following the indications provided by the model.
Drainage effects on the transient, near-surface hydrologic response of a steep hillslope to rainfall: implications for slope stability, Edmonds, Washington, USA
Authors: Biavati G. , Godt J. W. , McKenna J. P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Shallow landslides on steep (>25°) hillsides along Puget Sound have resulted in occasional loss of life and costly damage to property during intense or prolonged rainfall. As part of a larger project to assess landslide hazards in the Seattle area, the U.S. Geological Survey instrumented two coastal bluff sites in 2001 to observe the subsurface hydrologic response to rainfall. The instrumentation at one of these sites, near Edmonds, Washington, consists of two rain gauges, two water-content probes that measure volumetric water content at eight depths between 0.2 and 2.0 m, and two tensiometer nests that measure soil-water suction at six depths ranging from 0.2 to 1.5 m. Measurements from these instruments are used to test one- and two-dimensional numerical models of infiltration and groundwater flow. Capillary-rise tests, performed in the laboratory on soil sample from the Edmonds site, are used to define the soil hydraulic properties for the wetting process. The field observations of water content and suction show an apparent effect of porosity variation with depth on the hydraulic response to rainfall. Using a range of physical properties consistent with our laboratory and field measurements, we perform sensitivity analyses to investigate the effects of variation in physical and hydraulic properties of the soil on rainfall infiltration, pore-pressure response, and, hence, slope stability. For a two-layer-system in which the hydraulic conductivity of the upper layer is at least 10 times greater than the conductivity of the lower layer, and the infiltration rate is greater than the conductivity of the lower layer, a perched water table forms above the layer boundary potentially destabilizing the upper layer of soil. Two-dimensional modeling results indicate that the addition of a simple trench drain to the same two-layer slope has differing effects on the hydraulic response depending on the initial pressure head conditions. For slope-parallel flow conditions, pressure head is significantly reduced near the drain; however, for transient, vertical infiltration in a partially saturated soil, conditions consistent with those observed during monitoring at the Edmonds site, the drain decreases the thickness of a perched water table by a small amount.
On the predictability of volcano-tectonic events by low frequency seismic noise analysis at Teide-Pico Viejo volcanic complex, Canary Islands
Authors: Tárraga M. , Carniel R. , Ortiz R. , Marrero J. M. , García A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The island of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain), is showing possible signs of reawakening after its last basaltic strombolian eruption, dated 1909 at Chinyero. The main concern relates to the central active volcanic complex Teide - Pico Viejo, which poses serious hazards to the properties and population of the island of Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain), and which has erupted several times during the last 5000 years, including a subplinian phonolitic eruption (Montaña Blanca) about 2000 years ago. In this paper we show the presence of low frequency seismic noise which possibly includes tremor of volcanic origin and we investigate the feasibility of using it to forecast, via the material failure forecast method, the time of occurrence of discrete events that could be called Volcano-Tectonic or simply Tectonic (i.e. non volcanic) on the basis of their relationship to volcanic activity. In order to avoid subjectivity in the forecast procedure, an automatic program has been developed to generate forecasts, validated by Bayes theorem. A parameter called "forecast gain" measures (and for the first time quantitatively) what is gained in probabilistic terms by applying the (automatic) failure forecast method. The clear correlation between the obtained forecasts and the occurrence of (Volcano-)Tectonic seismic events - a clear indication of a relationship between the continuous seismic noise and the discrete seismic events - is the explanation for the high value of this "forecast gain" in both 2004 and 2005 and an indication that the events are Volcano-Tectonic rather than purely Tectonic.
The mobility of Atlantic baric depressions leading to intense precipitation over Italy: a preliminary statistical analysis
Authors: Tartaglione N. , Speranza A. , Dalan F. , Nanni T. , Brunetti M. , Maugeri M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The speed of Atlantic surface depressions, occurred during the autumn and winter seasons and that lead to intense precipitation over Italy from 1951 to 2000, was investigated. Italy was divided into 5 regions as documented in previous climatological studies (based on Principal Component Analysis). Intense precipitation events were selected on the basis of in situ rain gauge data and clustered according to the region that they hit. For each intense precipitation event we tried to identify an associated surface depression and we tracked it, within a large domain covering the Mediterranean and Atlantic regions, from its formation to cyclolysis in order to estimate its speed. "Depression speeds" were estimated with 6-h resolution and clustered into slow and non-slow classes by means of a threshold, coinciding with the first quartile of speed distribution and depression centre speeds were associated with their positions. Slow speeds occurring over an area including Italy and the western Mediterranean basin showed frequencies higher than 25%, for all the Italian regions but one. The probability of obtaining by chance the observed more than 25% success rate was estimated by means of a binomial distribution. The statistical reliability of the result is confirmed for only one region. For Italy as a whole, results were confirmed at 95% confidence level. Stability of the statistical inference, with respect to errors in estimating depression speed and changes in the threshold of slow depressions, was analysed and essentially confirmed the previous results.
Investigation and monitoring in support of the structural mitigation of large slow moving landslides: an example from Ca' Lita (Northern Apennines, Reggio Emilia, Italy)
Authors: Corsini A. , Borgatti L. , Caputo G. , De Simone N. , Sartini G. , Truffelli G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Ca' Lita landslide is a large and deep-seated mass movement located in the Secchia River Valley, in the sector of the Northern Apennines falling into Reggio Emilia Province, about 70 km west of Bologna (Northern Italy). It consists of a composite landslide system that affects Cretaceous to Eocene flysch rock masses and chaotic complexes. Many of the components making up the landslide system have resumed activity between 2002 and 2004, and are now threatening some hamlets and an important road serving the upper watershed area of River Secchia, where many villages and key industrial facilities are located. This paper presents the analysis and the quantification of displacement rates and depths of the mass movements, based on geological and geomorphological surveys, differential DEM analysis, interpretation of underground stratigraphic and monitoring data collected during the investigation campaign that has been undertaken in order to design cost-effective mitigation structures, and that has been conducted with the joint collaboration between public offices and research institutes.
Indicators for identification of urban flooding vulnerability
Authors: Barroca B. , Bernardara P. , Mouchel J. M. , Hubert G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the last 5 years in France, we have observed that each new flood event exposes the weaknesses of the existing prevention system as well as the local weakness. Such events raise questions about the relevance and the effectiveness of the means of prevention. But these events also reveal resistance of the exposed territories, which shows that effective and adequate local strategies exist. There are various methods to evaluate the weakness, or vulnerability of an area, but since the last ten years the qualitative approach of vulnerability in flood risks became more important. Nevertheless, local authorities are often unable to evaluate the vulnerabilities of their territory. Local decision makers request tools for a better assessment of flooding vulnerability. Thus, many approaches of the weakness and the resistance of frequently flooded territories were developed on various scales. These approaches are often partial and contextual. There is a clear need for a support of the evaluation of vulnerability. However, there are obvious synergies between these different approaches, with regard to data retrieval and the establishment of adequate information systems taking into account the vulnerability of a specific territory. The paper develops a methodology aimed to organize into a software tool the choice of vulnerability indicators and the integration of the point of view of various stakeholders (economists, town planners, experts, political leaders, etc). This challenge is based on three simple statements: break down of the problems of vulnerability into homogeneous subsets and manage them; articulation of these subsets in a graphical interface allowing the presentation of interactions between the indicators of vulnerability and compare the opposed visions of vulnerability. The interface of the tool integrates various vulnerability indicators, which are organised in several categories, in order to allow a flexible and efficient vulnerability analysis.
Geomorphological hazard and tourist vulnerability along Portofino Park trails (Italy)
Authors: Brandolini P. , Faccini F. , Piccazzo M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The many trails existing in the coastal area of Portofino Promontory are used by tourists for trekking or as pathways to small villages and beaches. The aim of this paper is to define geomorphological hazard and tourist vulnerability in this area, within the framework of the management and planning of hiking activities in Portofino Natural Park. In particular, processes triggered by gravity, running waters and wave motion, affecting the slopes and the cliff, are considered. The typology of the trails and trail maintenance are also taken into account in relation to weather conditions that can make the excursion routes dangerous for tourists. In conclusion, an operative model is applied for the definition of possible risk scenarios. This model is founded on an inventory and the quantification of geomorphological hazards and tourist vulnerability, in comparison with trail rescue data. The model can be applied to other environments and tourist areas.