bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Yield Approximations: A Historical Perspective
Authors: HAWAWINI GABRIEL A. , VORA ASHOK
Published: April 2012

This paper traces the historical developments of the efforts to find simple and accurate methods of approximating an annuity's implicit yield and a bond's yield to maturity. It is shown that the little known history of yield approximations is nevertheless very rich, with contributions dating as far back as the late seventeenth century. It is also shown that the standard textbook approximation formula for the bond's yield to maturity is the least accurate of a large family of formulas, some of which were suggested as early as 1855.
Expectations Models of Asset Prices: A Survey of Theory
Authors: LEROY STEPHEN F.
Published: April 2012

This paper identifies restrictions on preferences under which various classes of “expectations” theories of asset prices—i.e., uncertainty models of asset prices which coincide with the corresponding certainty theory except that expected future prices replace actual future prices—are valid. Major classes of expectations models surveyed are martingale models, the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates, and models of exhaustible resources and futures markets. In each case the required restriction is related to the assumptiono f risk—neutrality, but the precise nature of the required restriction is shown to differ significantly among the various classes of expectations theories.
Investment Risk, Bankruptcy Risk, and Pension Reform in Canada
Authors: PESANDO JAMES E.
Published: April 2012

The wealth redistributive effects of retroactive termination insurance together with the difficulty of determining insurance premiums suggest that an alternative response, such as improved disclosure of worker benefits in the event of plan wind‐up, may be preferred if the government remains concerned about the security of benefits in underfunded plans. Members of money purchase plans may well be less subject to investment risk than members of defined benefit plans, contrary to the claim of many. In Canada, defined benefit plans appear to have been transformed into defined benefit/money purchase hybrids, and this has several important implications.
Optimal Sequential Investment When Capital is Not Readily Reversible
Authors: BALDWIN CARLISS Y.
Published: April 2012

When investment opportunities arrive one at a time and are reviewed sequentially, a corporation's optimal policy differs from a standard net present value rule if the corporation exercises control over an industry state variable and control is costly. The first condition presupposes a degree of market power for the firm; the second occurs if corporate investment decisions are imperfectly reversible.

To address the problem of optimal investment in this context, a firm's investment decisions are modeled as a Markov reward process. The causes of economic irreversibility are discussed and general propositions concerning the optimal investment policy are derived. These propositions are then applied to the optimization of an exploration program by an oligopolistic firm (a price leader). Under particular demand and distributional assumptions, solutions for the optimal decision rule and the value of the exploration program are obtained and their properties examined.
Inflation, Taxation, and Interest Rates
Authors: GANDOLFI ARTHUR E.
Published: April 2012

This paper demonstrates that the response of nominal interest rates to changes in inflationary expectations should lie between that predicted by the “Fisher” and “Darby” effects. The exact nature of the response will depend on the relative size of the income and capital gains tax rates, and the relative size of the derivatives of investment and savings to their respective after‐tax real rates. The other major conclusion of this paper is that capital gains taxation offsets the negative effect on investment produced by treating depreciation on a historic rather than a replacement cost basis.
Sufficient Conditions for Public Information to Have Social Value in a Production and Exchange Economy
Authors: KUNKEL J. GREGORY
Published: April 2012

Conditions are derived under which all consumers in a production and exchange economy will prefer (at least weakly) disclosure of public information to no such disclosure. The conditions involve consumer endowments, the allocative efficiency of the financial market, and value maximizing behavior by firms. Cases exist where consumers will prefer disclosure of public information in a production and exchange economy, although they would be indifferent to such disclosure in an otherwise similar pure exchange economy. The difference in results is due purely to the fact that in production and exchange economies, information may be used to reallocate resources across time and firms, thus highlighting the fundamental difference between the role of information in pure exchange and in production and exchange economies.
Managerial Incentives in a Stock Market Economy
Authors: BECK PAUL J. , ZORN THOMAS S.
Published: April 2012

This study presents an analysis of the managerial incentive problem in a stock market economy in which incentive contracts are structured in terms of security ownership. In our model, the manager's ownership share signals effort and is determined endogenously as the solution to a special portfolio decision problem. Managerial investment in the firm is evaluated under various security pricing arrangements. Our analysis indicates that, in general, stockholders should sell shares to a manager at a discount to ensure a Pareto efficient ownership (incentive) structure. However, efficient pricing (discount) schedules generally are nonlinear and, in many respects, isomorphic to discriminating price functions which have been considered in neoclassical models of monopoly.
Sufficient and Necessary Conditions for Information to have Social Value in Pure Exchange
Authors: HAKANSSON NILS H. , KUNKEL J. GREGORY , OHLSON JAMES A.
Published: April 2012

This paper extends, corrects, and unifies earlier statements concerning the social value of public information as well as the no‐trading conditions in pure exchange. Sufficient and necessary conditions are provided for both the single‐period and two‐period cases in a postsignal trading model. The social value of information is shown to be closely linked to the allocational efficiency of the market, the degree of homogeneity of prior beliefs, and of information structures, the time‐additivity of preferences, and the efficiency of endowments. We conclude that the case in favor of public information is much stronger than previously suggested.
The Impact of Merger Bids on the Participating Firms' Security Holders
Authors: ASQUITH PAUL , KIM E. HAN
Published: April 2012

This paper investigates whether merger bids have an impact on the wealth of the participating firms' bondholders and stockholders. Monthly and daily bond and stock returns are calculated relative to the announcement date of a merger bid for a sample of conglomerate mergers. The results show that while the stockholders of target firms gain from a merger bid, no other securityholders either gain or lose. To provide direct evidence on the existence of “diversification effects” and “incentive effects,” we test whether the bondholders' returns are dependent upon the correlation between the returns of the merging firms and whether the size of the bondholders' and stockholders' returns in individual mergers are correlated. The results are consistent with a capital market that efficiently resolves conflicts of interest between stockholders and bondholders.
The Relation Between Common Stock Returns Trading Activity and Market Value
Authors: JAMES CHRISTOPHER , EDMISTER ROBERT O.
Published: April 2012

This study examines the relation between common stock returns, trading activity and market value. Our results indicate that although firm size and trading activity are highly correlated, differences in trading activity are not the underlying reason for the firm size anomaly, the finding of systematic differences in risk adjusted returns across stocks of firms of different size.
The Estimation of Quality‐adjusted Rates of Return in Stamp Auctions
Authors: TAYLOR WILLIAM M.
Published: April 2012

The stamp auction market exemplifies markets in which a dominant feature is the quality variation in the traded assets. The observed price changes are a mixture of the “true” price change and the quality variation. This paper applies the time series signal extraction method to obtain estimates of quality‐adjusted rates of return and quality‐adjusted price indexes for stamp auction price series. The method is applicable to other areas in which there is quality variation or in which values are observed with error. Some features of stamps as an investment are also examined.
Motivating Management to Reveal Inside Information
Authors: TRUEMAN BRETT
Published: April 2012

This paper develops incentive schemes which motivate a manager to release private information that he has concerning the probabilities of occurrence of the various output levels of his firm. It is shown that, in the context of a pure‐exchange economy, a complete prohibition on the manager's trading in his firm's stock is sufficient to motivate him to truthfully release his private information. When the setting is extended to that of a production‐exchange economy, the manager must also be allowed to choose the production plan that he most prefers in order for him to be motivated to release his information truthfully. In fact, no incentive scheme in a general production‐exchange economy can be guaranteed to motivate the manager to release his information truthfully if he is not allowed to choose the production plan freely. However, when more structure is placed on the economy, such an incentive scheme can be developed as described in the latter part of this paper.
Over‐the‐Counter Option Market Dividend Protection and “Biases” in the Black‐Scholes Model: A Note
Authors: GESKE ROBERT , ROLL RICHARD , SHASTRI KULDEEP
Published: April 2012

Most options are traded over‐the‐counter (OTC) and are dividend “protected;” the exercise price decreases on the ex date by an amount equal to the dividend. This protection completely inhibits the early exercise of American call options. Nevertheless, OTC‐protected options have market values which differ systematically from Black‐Scholes values for European options on non‐dividend paying stocks. The pricing difference is related to both the variance of the underlying stock return and to time until expiration of the option, but it is quite small in dollar amount.
Stock Market Returns and Inflation Forecasts
Authors: GULTEKIN N. BULENT
Published: April 2012

This study uses data from the Livingston survey of expectations to examine the Fisher hypothesis as a model relating expected stock returns and expected inflation. We show that the Fisher hypothesis holds much better for ex ante expectations than ex post realizations.
An Empirical Analysis of the Role of the Medium of Exchange in Mergers
Authors: CARLETON WILLARD T. , GUILKEY DAVID K. , HARRIS ROBERT S. , STEWART JOHN F.
Published: April 2012

In empirical studies of differences between firms which are acquired and those which are not, researchers typically divide firms into two groups‐acquired and nonacquired. In this paper, we argue that cash takeovers may be sufficiently different from noncash acquisitionst hat failure to distinguish between them may lead to inappropriateg eneralizations. We provide evidence from the mid 1970s that three categories of firms can be distinguished:n onacquireda, cquiredi n a cash takeover, and acquired in an exchange of securities.
Economies of Scale and Economies of Scope in Multiproduct Financial Institutions: A Study of British Columbia Credit Unions
Authors: MURRAY JOHN D. , WHITE ROBERT W.
Published: April 2012

This paper investigates the production technology facing computerized credit unions in Canada. A full system of translog cost equations is estimated in order to test for economies of scale, economies of scope, and other production characteristics in a multiproduct context. The regression results indicate that most of the credit unions in our sample experience significant increasing returns to scale as they expand their level of output. There is also evidence of cost complementarity or economies of scope in their mortgage and other lending activities. As a result, legislation which limits the ability of credit unions to grow and diversify will likely raise the operating costs of this important group of financial institutions. Additional structural tests of the most general translog specification suggest that none of the restrictive production conditions commonly imposed by other researchers using Cobb‐Douglas and CES specifications provide a valid representation of credit union technology. The results of many earlier studies are therefore open to question.
The Relation between Stock Prices and Inflationary Expectations: The International Evidence
Authors: SOLNIK BRUNO
Published: April 2012

This paper provides empirical evidence on the relation between stock returns and inflationary expectations for nine countries over the period 1971–80. The Fisherian assumption that real returns are independent of inflationary expectations is soundly rejected for each major stock market of the world. Using interest rates as a proxy for expected inflation, our data provide consistent support for the Geske and Roll model whose basic hypothesis is that stock price movements signal (negative) revisions in inflationary expectations. Finally, a weak real interest rate effect was found for some of these countries.
Stock Market Returns and Inflation: Evidence from Other Countries
Authors: GULTEKIN N. BULENT
Published: April 2012

This paper investigates the relation between common stock returns and inflation in twenty‐six countries for the postwar period. Our results do not support the Fisher Hypothesis, which states that real rates of return on common stocks and expected inflation rates are independent and that nominal stock returns vary in one‐to‐one correspondence with expected inflation. There is a consistent lack of positive relation between stock returns and inflation in most of the countries.
Year‐End Tax‐Induced Sales and Stock Market Seasonality
Authors: GIVOLY DAN , OVADIA ARIE
Published: April 2012

The paper relates two phenomena in the stock market: the high return during the month of January and the apparent existence of widespread sales of stocks for tax purposes towards the end of the fiscal year. The findings suggest that, due to the tax‐induced sales, the price of many stocks over the last 35 years was temporarily depressed in December but recovered in the following January. This price recovery is a major contributor to the high returns observed in January. The tax effect is present in firms of all sizes but much more pronounced for small firms. The analysis also indicates that a more precise identification of the tax‐switch candidates may prove that the tax‐induced sales are, in fact, the sole contributor to the high January's returns.
The Optimal Pricing Policy of a Monopolistic Marketmaker in the Equity Market
Authors: MILDENSTEIN ECKART , SCHLEEF HAROLD
Published: April 2012

This paper presents a stochastic optimization model for marketmaking in security markets with a single dealer. Buy and sell orders are assumed to arrive at rates that are functions of the ask and bid prices. The dealer incurs both proportional and fixed transaction costs as well as portfolio costs. Methods of dynamic programming and semi‐Markov Decision Processes are used to characterize optimal pricing policies and to perform sensitivity analysis. Both bid and ask prices are nonincreasing functions of the dealer's inventory. Spread is unrelated to inventory position but positively related to order size. Computational examples demonstrate various results.
Fixed Versus Variable Rate Loans
Authors: SANTOMERO ANTHONY M.
Published: April 2012

This paper discusses the nature of fixed and variable loan contracts and derives the conditions which determine the optimal quantity of each. The results indicate that the payoff functions are quite different and dependent upon the project financed. The appropriate conditions for the allocation of loan terms to a set of borrowers are then developed. Finally, the analysis derives the optimal portfolio frontier and risk‐return trade‐off for the banking firm. Here, it is demonstrated that the solution is unlikely to be at a point of zero interest rate risk.
On the Distributional Conditions for a Consumption‐oriented Three Moment CAPM
Authors: KRAUS ALAN , LITZENBERGER ROBERT
Published: April 2012

In this paper, we develop sufficient conditions on probability distributions for a three moment (mean, variance, and skewness) consumption‐oriented capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to price correctly a subset of assets. The assumptions that individuals in an allocationally efficient capital market have identical probability beliefs and monotone increasing strictly concave utility functions displaying nonincreasing absolute risk aversion imply an aggregate preference function that exhibits preference for expected return, aversion to variance of return, and preference for positive skewness. For otherwise arbitrary preferences, we show that quadratic characteristic lines are sufficient for a subset of assets to be priced according to a three moment consumption‐oriented CAPM.
Agency, Delayed Compensation, and the Structure of Executive Remuneration
Authors: EATON JONATHAN , ROSEN HARVEY S.
Published: April 2012

In this paper we examine the factors affecting the structure of executives' compensation packages. We focus particularly on the role of various types of delayed compensation as means of “bonding” executives to their firms.

The basic problem is to design a compensation package that rewards actions that are in the long‐run interest of the stockholders. Firms must take into account their ability to discern unfortunate circumstances from mismanagement, the extent to which a compensation package forces the executive to face risks beyond his control, and the willingness of a given executive to bear this risk. We use our theory to interpret some executive compensation data from the early 1970s.
Screening, Market Signalling, and Capital Structure Theory
Authors: LEE WAYNE L. , THAKOR ANJAN V. , VORA GAUTAM
Published: April 2012

This paper develops an equilibrium model in which informational asymmetries about the qualities of products offered for sale are resolved through a mechanism which combines the signalling and costly screening approaches. The model is developed in the context of a capital market setting in which bondholders produce costly information about a firm's a priori imperfectly known earnings distribution and use this information in specifying a bond valuation schedule to the firm. Given this schedule, the firm's optimal choices of debt‐equity ratio and debt maturity structure subsequently signal to prospective shareholders the relevant parameters of the firm's earnings distribution.
On the Positive Role of Financial Intermediation in Allocation of Venture Capital in a Market with Imperfect Information
Authors: CHAN YUK‐SHEE
Published: April 2012

This paper develops a theory of financial intermediation that highlights the contribution of intermediaries as informed agents in a market with imperfect information. We consider a venture capital market where the entrepreneurs select the qualities of projects and their perquisite consumptions, about which the investors are imperfectly informed. It is shown that when all investors have positive search costs, the entrepreneurs are induced to offer the unacceptable inferior projects (“lemons” only), and the investors will not enter the venture capital market, but put their funds in other low return investments–an undesirable allocation of resources.

Beginning with an initial undesirable situation, the financial intermediaries may evolve as informed agents that induce a Pareto‐preferred allocation, leading the investors to a higher welfare state. We focus our analysis on the existence of intermediation equilibra when the market for intermediation services is competitive. The distribution of returns on projects, the fees charged by intermediaries, and the fraction of institutional holdings are all endogenous in equilibrium. It is shown that (i) there cannot be a competitive intermediation equilibrium with very high institutional holdings, and (ii) in other cases multiple equilibra may exist, but the one with the highest institutional holdings dominates the others in a Pareto sense.
The Market Model and Capital Asset Pricing Theory: A Note
Authors: STAPLETON R. C. , SUBRAHMANYAM M. G.
Published: April 2012

This note shows that a linear market model is sufficient to derive a linear relationship between beta and expected return. Furthermore, the slope of the relationship will be identical with that of the Capital Asset Pricing Model if the return on the market portfolio is normally distributed. However, results from characterization theory suggest that the linear market model assumption is close to that of multivariate normality.
Intertemporal Commodity Futures Hedging and the Production Decision
Authors: HO THOMAS S. Y.
Published: April 2012

This paper deals with the producer's optimal use of commodity futures in hedging. The framework for analysis is an intertemporal consumption and investment model. The producer makes his production decisions at the beginning of the period and realizes his return at the end of the time interval. During the period, he faces both price and output uncertainties. In applying stochastic dynamic programming methods, this paper shows the effect of these risks on his consumption behavior. Further, the paper investigates his optimal hedging positions in the futures market over time and his optimal production decisions. Finally, implications of these results on the futures markets are discussed.
Tax Effects in Term Structure Estimation
Authors: JORDAN JAMES V.
Published: April 2012

This study is a refinement and an extension of an earlier study by McCulloch of tax effects in the regression equation for term structure estimation. This study includes tests for tax effects and heteroskedasticity, a reconsideration of the need for an instrumental variable, and a search for the capital gains tax rate in addition to the ordinary‐income tax rate. There are two major findings: (1) statistically significant tax‐induced bias in the non‐tax‐adjusted equation and (2) evidence that the capital gains tax is misspecified in the tax‐adjusted equation.
Real Stock Returns and Inflation
Authors: DAY THEODORE E.
Published: April 2012

This paper develops the relation between the real rate of return on the stock market and changes in the price level using a multiperiod economy with production. The observed relation between real ex post stock returns and inflation is shown to be consistent with equilibrium in an economy with rational investors. The relation between expected real returns and expected inflation is shown to depend on the form of the economy's production function and on the form of investor preferences. When the production function exhibits stochastic constant returns to scale, the model explains the negative relation between expected real returns and expected inflation which has frequently been observed in empirical studies.
Technological and Regulatory Forces in the Developing Fusion of Financial‐Services Competition
Authors: KANE EDWARD J.
Published: April 2012

Product lines of traditionally heterogeneous financial institutions are rapidly fusing into a homogeneous blend. Institutions and market structures are reshaping themselves to lower the cost of serving customer demand for financial services. This paper contends that contemporary adaptations exploit scope economies rooted in technological change and deposit‐insurance subsidies to innovative forms of risk‐bearing.

As they reorient work flows, financial firms are simultaneously restructuring their organizations to lower net burdens from government regulation. Alternative state and federal regulatory and legislative bodies compete vigorously for the regulatory business of developing institutional hybrids. Evolution of Federal Reserve policy toward “nonbank banks” exemplifies the process.
How Big is the Tax Advantage to Debt?
Authors: KANE ALEX , MARCUS ALAN J. , McDONALD ROBERT L.
Published: April 2012

This paper uses an option valuation model of the firm to answer the question, “What magnitude tax advantage to debt is consistent with the range of observed corporate debt ratios?” We incorporate into the model differential personal tax rates on capital gains and ordinary income. We conclude that variations in the magnitude of bankruptcy costs across firms can not by itself account for the simultaneous existence of levered and unlevered firms. When it is possible for the value of the underlying assets to jump discretely to zero, differences across firms in the probability of this jump can account for the simultaneous existence of levered and unlevered firms. Moreover, if the tax advantage to debt is small, the annual rate of return advantage offered by optimal leverage may be so small as to make the firm indifferent about debt policy over a wide range of debt‐to‐firm value ratios.
Taxes, Inflation and Corporate Financial Policy
Authors: SCHALL LAWRENCE D.
Published: April 2012

This paper examines inflation‐induced distortions in personal and corporate income taxes and discusses the implications for corporate dividend and financial structure policies and for shareholder unanimity. The tax effects relating to capital gains and debt interest cause changes in aggregate corporate borrowing and lead to equilibrium tax relationships which differ from the zero‐inflation tax relationships.
Corporate Behavior in Adjusting to Capital Structure and Dividend Targets: An Econometric Study
Authors: JALILVAND ABOLHASSAN , HARRIS ROBERT S.
Published: April 2012

This study of financing decisions by U.S. corporations examines the issuance of long term debt, issuance of short term debt, maintenance of corporate liquidity, issuance of new equity, and payment of dividends. Given costs and imperfections inherent in markets, a firm's financial behavior is characterized as partial adjustment to long run financial targets. Individual firm data are used so that speeds of adjustment are allowed to vary by company and over time. The results suggest that financial decisions are interdependent and that firm size, interest rate conditions, and stock price levels affect speeds of adjustment.
The Valuation of Assets under Moral Hazard
Authors: RAMAKRISHNAN RAM T. S. , THAKOR ANJAN V.
Published: April 2012

The design of managerial incentive contracts is examined in a setting in which economic agents are risk averse, and the actions of managers can affect asset returns which contain both systematic and idiosyncratic risks. It is shown that in the absence of moral hazard, owners of assets will insure managers against idiosyncratic risks, but with moral hazard, contracts will depend on both systematic and idiosyncratic risks. The traditional recommendation of asset pricing models, namely, to focus only on systematic risks, is thus proved to be valid only when there is no moral hazard. The major empirically testable predictions of the model are (1) managerial incentive contracts will generally depend on systematic as well as idiosyncratic risks, (2) idiosyncratic risks will generally be important in investment decisions, (3) the managers of firms with relatively high levels of idiosyncratic risks will have compensations that are less dependent on their firms' excess returns, and (4) the compensations of managers of larger firms will be relatively more dependent on the excess returns of their firms.
Short Sales Restrictions and Kinks on the Mean Variance Frontier
Authors: DYBVIG PHILIP H.
Published: April 2012

With a short sales restriction, there may be switching points along the mean variance frontier corresponding to changes in the set of assets held. Traditional wisdom holds that each switching point corresponds to a kink, while Ross has claimed that kinks never occur. This paper shows that the truth lies between the two views, since the efficient frontier may or may not be kinked at a switching point. There is some indication that kinks are rare, since a kink corresponds to a portfolio in which all assets have the same expected return.
On the Jensen Measure and Marginal Improvements in Portfolio Performance: A Note
Authors: JOBSON J. D. , KORKIE BOB
Published: April 2012

The marginal performance contribution made by new assets in a portfolio is identified. The maximum change in a portfolio's Sharpe performance from the addition of new assets is a simple function of a generalized Jensen index and the unexplained covariances from a multivariate market model. Deviations from a higher dimension market line may be used to rank the desirability of asset additions to an existing portfolio. Statistical tests for the equality of the performance contributions by new assets is possible.
Estimating the Correlation Structure of International Share Prices
Authors: EUN CHEOL S. , RESNICK BRUCE G.
Published: April 2012

Recently, the case for international portfolio diversification has been convincingly argued in the framework of mean‐variance portfolio analysis by a number of researchers. However, virtually no empirical documentation exists concerning the best method for estimating the correlation structure of international share prices. In this paper, 12 models for estimating the international correlation matrix are presented and empirically tested relative to full historical extrapolation. The major evaluation criteria are the mean squared error and stochastic dominance based on the frequency distribution of the squared forecast errors. The results indicate that the National Mean Model strictly dominates all the others in terms of forecasting accuracy.
Are Real Interest Rates Equal Across Countries? An Empirical Investigation of International Parity Conditions
Authors: MISHKIN FREDERIC S.
Published: April 2012

This paper conducts empirical tests of the equality of real interest rates across countries. The empirical evidence strongly rejects the hypothesis of real rate equality and the joint hypotheses of uncovered interest parity and ex ante relative PPP, or the unbiasedness of forward rate forecasts and ex ante relative PPP. The evidence suggests that it is worth studying open economy macroeconomic models which allow: 1) domestic real rates to differ from world rates, 2) time varying risk premiums in the forward market, or 3) deviations from ex ante relative PPP.
The Valuation of Options When Asset Returns Are Generated by a Binomial Process
Authors: STAPLETON R. C. , SUBRAHMANYAM M. G.
Published: April 2012

This paper values options on assets whose returns, over a finite interval of time, are generated by a binomial process. It shows that a simple valuation relationship, between the option and the underlying stock, obtains if investors have preference functions that belong to a particular class, even if opportunities to hedge do not exist. One particular application of the theory is in the case where the stock price over a finite interval could increase by an amount, fall by the same amount, or stay at the same level. The results in this paper may be viewed as the foundation of the preference‐based approaches to obtaining a risk neutral valuation relationship.
Production and Risk Leveling in the Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model
Authors: GRINOLS EARL L.
Published: April 2012

This paper extends Merton's intertemporal capital asset pricing model with multiple consumers to include a description of the supply of traded securities. The production decisions of firms are described in a model with stochastic investment opportunities and incomplete markets. Firms maximize the welfare of their stockholders based on the sum of dollar values placed on the projects by shareholders of the firm. The monetary value to stockholders of a marginal change in the contract structure due to changing firm production is analyzed. In this setting, the competitive market achieves an appropriately defined Nash‐Constrained Pareto Optimum. Sufficient conditions for investor unanimity, market‐value maximization by firms, and the equilibrium to achieve a Constrained Pareto Optimum and full Pareto Optimum are derived.
Optimal Bank Behavior under Uncertain Inflation
Authors: LANDSKRONER YORAM , RUTHENBERG DAVID
Published: April 2012

In this paper, we derive a model of the individual banking firm facing stochastic inflation. The bank is considered as a depository financial intermediary operating in the primary market as a multiproduct price discriminating firm. A secondary market is also considered where liquidity surpluses and deficits are traded. Two types of assets and liabilities are assumed: deposits and loans linked to a general price level and nonlinked instruments. Effects of changes in the parameters such as inflation rate and variability, reserve requirements are analyzed.
Option Pricing and Replication with Transactions Costs
Authors: LELAND HAYNE E.
Published: April 2012

Transactions costs invalidate the Black‐Scholes arbitrage argument for option pricing, since continuous revision implies infinite trading. Discrete revision using Black‐Scholes deltas generates errors which are correlated with the market, and do not approach zero with more frequent revision when transactions costs are included. This paper develops a modified option replicating strategy which depends on the size of transactions costs and the frequency of revision. Hedging errors are uncorrelated with the market and approach zero with more frequent revision. The technique permits calculation of the transactions costs of option replication and provides bounds on option prices.
The Trading Decision and Market Clearing under Transaction Price Uncertainty
Authors: HO THOMAS S. Y. , SCHWARTZ ROBERT A. , WHITCOMB DAVID K.
Published: April 2012

This paper models an individual's trading decision, given: (1) his/her demand function to hold shares of an asset, (2) his/her expectation on what the market clearing price will be, and (3) the design of the market which determines how orders will be translated into trades. The particular market design we consider is the batched trading (periodic call) regime. Assuming investors are distributed according to their propensities to hold shares, we model the aggregation of orders to obtain market clearing values of price and volume and to show the way in which, with trading friction, these solutions differ from Pareto efficient values. The importance of this analysis for various issues concerning market design is noted.
Government Bond Returns, Measurement of Interest Rate Risk, and the Arbitrage Pricing Theory
Authors: GULTEKIN N. BULENT , ROGALSKI RICHARD J.
Published: April 2012

Empirical tests are reported for Ross' arbitrage pricing theory using monthly data for U.S. Treasury securities during the 1960–1979 period. We find that mean returns on bond portfolios are linearly related to at least two factor loadings. Multivariate test results, however, are not consistent with the APT. Our sample data in the U.S. Treasury securities market are also not consistent with either version of the CAPM. One‐month‐ahead forecasts of excess returns using factor‐generating models are compared with corresponding naive predictions or predictions using the “market model” with various market portfolios.
Rational Expectations Model of Term Premia with Some Implications for Empirical Asset Demand Equations
Authors: WALSH CARL E.
Published: April 2012

This paper derives the equilibrium time series processes characterizing the prices of bonds which differ by maturity using the CAPM relationship between expected returns. The assumption of rational expectations requires that asset demand behavior, which determines bond prices in equilibrium, be based on the covariances among returns that are implied by the assumption of market clearing. This requirement imposes nonlinear restrictions on the parameters in the solution for bond prices. Some implications for the types of comparative static exercises for which it is legitimate to assume invariant demand functions are discussed, and some numerical solutions for bond prices are derived.
More on Estimation Risk and Simple Rules for Optimal Portfolio Selection
Authors: ALEXANDER GORDON J. , RESNICK BRUCE G.
Published: April 2012

For the risk‐averse investor, consideration of estimation risk is important in selecting an expected‐utility‐maximizing portfolio. It has previously been shown that the composition of the tangency portfolio is unaffected by the recognition of estimation risk if the Full Covariance Model is used. Alternatively, if the Market Model is used, the composition of the tangency portfolio has been shown to be affected by the recognition of estimation risk. However, as is demonstrated in this paper, the effect will generally not be as substantive as previously believed and in many situations can be safely ignored.
Divergence of Opinion in Complete Markets: A Note
Authors: VARIAN HAL R.
Published: April 2012

We consider an Arrow‐Debreu model with agents who have different subjective probabilities. In general, asset prices will depend only on aggregate consumption and the distribution of subjective probabilities in each state of nature. If all agents have identical preferences then an asset with “more dispersed” subjective probabilities will have a lower price than an asset with less dispersed subjective probabilities if risk aversion does not decline too rapidly. It seems that this condition is likely to be met in practice, so that increased dispersion of beliefs will generally be associated with reduced asset prices in a given Arrow‐Debreu equilibrium.
Interest Rate Term Structure Estimation with Exponential Splines: A Note
Authors: SHEA GARY S.
Published: April 2012

Vasicek and Fong [11] developed exponential spline functions as models of the interest rate term structure and claim such models are superior to polynomial spline models. It is found empirically that i) exponential spline term structure estimates are no more stable than estimates from a polynomial spline model, ii) data transformations implicit in the exponential spline model frequently condition the data so that it is difficult to obtain approximations in which one can place confidence, and iii) the asymptotic properties of the exponential spline model frequently are unrealistic. Estimation with exponential splines is no more convenient than estimation with polynomial splines and gives substantially identical estimates of the interest rate term structure as well.
On Determination of Stochastic Dominance Optimal Sets
Authors: BAWA VIJAY S. , BODURTHA JAMES N. , RAO M. R. , SURI HIRA L.
Published: April 2012

Applying Fishburn's [4] conditions for convex stochastic dominance, exact linear programming algorithms are proposed and implemented for assigning discrete return distributions into the first‐ and second‐order stochastic dominance optimal sets. For third‐order stochastic dominance, a superconvex stochastic dominance approach is defined which allows classification of choice elements into superdominated, mixed, and superoptimal sets. For a choice set of 896 security returns treated previously in the literature, 454, 25, and 13 distributions are in the first‐, second‐, and third‐order convex stochastic dominance optimal sets, respectively. These optimal sets compare with admissible first‐, second‐, and third‐order stochastic dominance sets of 682, 35, and 19 distributions, respectively.

The applicability of superconvex stochastic dominance for continuous distributions defined over a bounded interval is then shown. The difficulties in identifying the elements of the superdominated set for distributions defined over the entire real line are demonstrated in the determination of the dominated choices for a set of normally distributed mutual fund returns previously examined by Meyer [9]. Specifically, we find that the dominated set determined by Meyer is too large.
Empirical Tests of Boundary Conditions for Toronto Stock Exchange Options
Authors: HALPERN PAUL J. , TURNBULL STUART M.
Published: April 2012

Using option and stock transaction data for the period 1978–1979, three issues were investigated: first, the conformance of observed prices to various boundary conditions; second, the evolution of the market over time, as the volume of trading and the number of listed options increased; and third, to test the efficiency of the market. It was found that violations did occur. Using a trading rule based on the signal of observed violations, the results suggest that even after transaction costs the market was inefficient over the sample period.
Expected Inflation and Interest Rates in a Multi‐asset Model: A Note
Authors: MITCHELL DOUGLAS W.
Published: April 2012

This paper analyzes the effect of expected inflation on nominal interest rates, in a theoretical model with money and two different bond types. The inclusion of three assets instead of the usual two causes the effect of expected inflation on the interest rates to deviate from unity. Depending on the sizes of the wealth and interest rate effects on the various asset demands, the effect of expected inflation could even be negative. Several special cases are also considered, and the implications for the interpretation of empirical results are discussed.
Currency Risk and Country Risk in International Banking
Authors: SHAPIRO ALAN C.
Published: April 2012

This paper focuses on the conditions under which banks are subject to currency and country risks on their dollar‐denominated loans to foreign firms and governments. We conclude that currency risk is a function of the rates of domestic and foreign inflation, deviations from purchasing power parity, and the effect of these deviations on the firm's and the nation's dollar‐equivalent cash flows. Country risk is largely determined by the variability of the nation's terms of trade and the government's willingness to allow the national economy to adjust rapidly to changing economic fortunes.
A Test of the OPEC Cartel Hypothesis: 1974–1983
Authors: LODERER CLAUDIO
Published: April 2012

This paper tests whether the higher oil prices of the last decade could have been the result of producer collusion. We find little evidence that OPEC influenced oil prices during the years of skyrocketing prices (1974–1980), but there is evidence that it did so during the recent years of softening prices (1981–1983).
Positively Weighted Portfolios on the Minimum‐Variance Frontier
Authors: GREEN RICHARD C.
Published: April 2012

Duality theory is employed to provide necessary and sufficient conditions for portfolios on the minimum‐variance frontier to have positive investment proportions in all assets. These conditions involve the feasibility of portfolios that have non‐negative correlation with all assets and positive correlation with at least one. Using these results, several “qualitative” results concerning the signs of investment proportions in efficient portfolios are proved. It is argued that the conditions that ensure all‐positive weights in efficient portfolios are intuitively compelling and are not unique to the CAPM. With large numbers of assets, however, the signs of weights in minimum‐variance portfolios can be very sensitive to slight departures from these conditions due to, for example, sampling error.
Information Asymmetry and the Dealer's Bid‐Ask Spread: A Case Study of Earnings and Dividend Announcements
Authors: VENKATESH P. C. , CHIANG R.
Published: April 2012

Recent theoretical work on the bid‐ask spread asserts that the dealer should widen the bid‐ask spread when he or she suspects that the information advantage possessed by informed traders has increased. Thus, the dealer's spread can be employed to test for an increase in information asymmetry prior to an anticipated information event. In this paper, the method is applied to earnings and dividend announcements, which have been documented to be information events. The authors study three groups of announcements: (a) joint announcements—i.e., earnings and dividend announcements that are made on the same day, (b) initial (first) announcements—earnings or dividend announcements that were not preceded by another announcement in the prior thirty days, and (c) following (second) announcements—those announcements that follow the first announcement by at least ten days but by no more than thirty days. The authors find a strong increase in information asymmetry only before the second announcements and virtually no increase before the joint and first announcements. This is consistent with the hypothesis that there is, on average, normal information asymmetry before announcements, but that the dealer will suspect a nonroutine announcement (with an attendant increase in information asymmetry) when the second announcement is separated from the first by more than ten days. Other possible explanations for the results are discussed, and suggestions for future research are outlined.
Contributing Authors and Institutions to the Journal of Finance: 1946–1985
Authors: HECK J. LOUIS , COOLEY PHILIP L. , HUBBARD CARL M.
Published: April 2012

Publication of the December 1985 issue of the Journal of Finance completed the Journal's first 40 years of contributions to the profession. This study identifies and summarizes the contributing authors, where they earned their doctoral degrees, and their employers at the time of publication. The authors, degree‐granting institutions, and employers appearing most frequently in the Journal are ordered for the entire 40‐year period and for various subperiods. Where possible, the present findings are compared with those of previously published studies.
Earnings Announcements, Stock Price Adjustment, and the Existence of Option Markets
Authors: JENNINGS ROBERT , STARKS LAURA
Published: April 2012

This paper employs a new approach to study the effects of option trading on the behavior of underlying stock prices. Extant research compares distributional properties of the stock price at two points in time divided by an event in the option market that might affect price behavior. As an alternative, we examine the stock price adjustment to the release of quarterly earnings using samples of firms with and without listed options. We find the two samples exhibit different adjustment processes, with the nonoption firms requiring substantially more time to adjust.
Efficiency Tests of the Foreign Currency Options Market
Authors: BODURTHA JAMES N. , COURTADON GEORGES R.
Published: April 2012

Based on a new options transactions data base from the Philadelphia Stock Exchange Foreign Currency Options Market, this paper examines the importance of the effect of nonsynchronous prices and transaction costs on the usual option market efficiency tests. The tests conducted are based on the transaction cost adjusted early exercise and put‐call parity pricing boundaries applicable to the American foreign currency options market. The test results show that the put‐call parity boundary tests are sensitive to both nonsynchronous prices and transaction costs. The early exercise boundary tests are sensitive to transaction costs but are not very sensitive to simultaneity of the option price and the underlying spot price. Under the no‐transaction costs scenario, a large number of early exercise boundary violations is found even when simultaneous spot and option prices are used. These violations disappear when actual transaction costs are taken into account.
LaPlace Transforms as Present Value Rules: A Note
Authors: BUSER STEPHEN A.
Published: April 2012

The present value equation in finance is shown to be equivalent to the Laplace transformation in mathematics. Based on this observation, the list of known analytic solutions for the present value problem is increased from a handful to more than one hundred. General properties of the Laplace transform are examined as well in light of the newly discovered significance for finance.