Balancing the Equation: Natural Gas Role in the Energy Transition Towards Decarbonization
Authors: Fonquergne J. , Balch R. 
Published: June 2024

This paper assesses the role of natural gas in the global energy transition and industrial decarbonization, specifically in the power and industrial sectors, where natural gas holds substantial importance both at present and well into the future. An overview of the current societal relevance of natural gas will be presented, and an assessment of natural gas contributions to global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions/reductions will be presented. The opportunities and repercussions of fuel switching is illustrated through a detailed case study in the United States highlighting the importance of Carbon Capture Utilization and Storage (CCUS) for natural gas to have a more significant role in energy transitions and decarbonization efforts.

This research presents a comprehensive approach, combining data analysis, literature review, and development of a case study to examine the significance of natural gas on the energy transition. Methods include assessing the share of natural gas in global emissions and analyzing fuel switching scenarios. The study draws on data from open sources such as the International Energy Agency (IEA), Our World in Data and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), to support its findings and conclusions.

Natural gas, while contributing significantly to global CO2 emissions, emerges as a crucial transitional fuel for reducing emissions in the short term. Fuel switching, particularly from coal to natural gas, is identified as a key strategy for achieving immediate emission reductions. But the switch implies an increase in demand for natural gas. The study reveals that the United States (U.S.) has witnessed substantial emissions reductions through coal-to-gas switching, emphasizing the economic and environmental benefits. However, the ultimate goal remains a shift towards electrification and low-carbon sources for long-term sustainability. CCUS becomes crucial in advancing sustainable power and heat within the energy and industrial sectors and can be deployed with appropriate policy frameworks and incentives using current technology and infrastructure, making it a crucial bridge to decarbonization.

This research introduces insights into the cooperative relationship between coal, natural gas, renewables and the role of CCUS, emphasizing their complementary roles in energy transitions. The potential of natural gas as a flexible and reliable transition energy source is explored, particularly in the U.S. industrial sector. The study also delves into the role of CCUS in decarbonizing power and heat generated by the use of natural gas in power generation and industrial settings. The need for a phased approach to energy transitions and policy support is highlighted. Research funding, financial incentives or carbon cap, and greenhouse gases (GHG) reporting are essential components for advancing carbon capture technologies. The study concludes by emphasizing the evolving role of natural gas in the context of global, regional, and national climate objectives, considering factors such as technology advancements, market conditions, policy support and necessary timelines for substantive reductions in CO2 emissions required by intergovernmental agreements such as the Paris Accord.