bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A general method of correction for age misreporting in census populations
Authors: Das Gupta Prithwis
Published: March 2007

The paper provides a general method for estimating age-reporting errors from two consecutive census populations along the lines suggested by Demeny and Shorter (1968). When the true age structures in the two censusses are the same, the general method and the Demeny-Shorter method give identical results. However, the latter method faces increasingly the problem of inconsistency of the results with the underlying assumptions as the disparity between the age structures becomes more and more significant. The present method is more general in the sense that it always gives consistent results irrespective of the populations under consideration.
Constructing increment-decrement life tables
Authors: Schoen Robert
Published: March 2007

A life table model which can recognize increments (or entrants) as well as decrements has proven to be of considerable value in the analysis of marital status patterns, labor force participation patterns, and other areas of substantive interest. Nonetheless, relatively little work has been done on the methodology of increment-decrement (or combined) life tables. The present paper reviews the general, recursive solution of Schoen and Nelson (1974), develops explicit solutions for three cases of particular interest, and compares alternative approaches to the construction of increment-decrement tables.
New evidence on the value of birth expectations
Authors: O’Connell Martin , Moore Maurice J.
Published: March 2007

Past national surveys regarding birth expectations have usually been restricted to currently married women, a fact which has led demographers to question the usefulness of these data. Because the June 1976 Current Population Survey includes the expectations of all women in a cohort regardless of marital status, it provides the data needed to evaluate biases due to restricted survey universes. At older ages, where there are substantial differences in lifetime expectations between currently married and single women, there are relatively few single women; at younger ages, however, where the proportion of single women in a cohort is relatively large, the differences in expectations are small. This counterbalancing effect makes the lifetime birth expectations of currently married women a close approximation of all women in a cohort. The analysis also indicates that the observed intracohort declines in lifetime birth expectations since 1967 were due largely to the addition at subsequent survey dates of previously unmarried women; nevertheless, some “true” cohort declines also seem to have occurred.
Labor force participation of working mothers and family formation: Some further evidence
Authors: Clifford William B. , Tobin Patricia L.
Published: March 2007

This paper offers additional insight and evidence on the well-documented inverse relationship between female employment and fertility. Interviews with 388 working mothers from a probability sample in Robeson County, North Carolina, provide the data for testing the hypothesized relationships. Generally, the results indicate that lower fertility, lower desires and expectations, and earlier use of birth control are associated with work before the first birth and with employment of the longest duration. The timing of the first birth was not differentiated by variations in work experience. The results are conditional in that the relationships hold more for whites than for blacks or Indians.
Age and parity influences on maternal mortality: United States, 1919–1969
Authors: Berry Linda G.
Published: March 2007

Comparisons of crude and standardized rates of maternal mortality show that changes in age and parity distributions of births had some influence on maternal mortality trends for the years 1919–1969 in the United States. Changes in the age and parity distributions of births for cohorts of U.S. women also influenced crude cohort maternal mortality rates to some extent.
The size-density hypothesis in Great Britain: Analysis of a deviant case
Authors: Massey Douglas S. , Edward Stephan G.
Published: March 2007

Recent studies have found size of territorial units to vary inversely with population density, the only exception to this regularity being Great Britain, where size and density were found to be unrelated. The present research accounts for this anomaly by demonstrating Britain’s historical conformity to the size-density relation. The size-density hypothesis is further supported by direct test, made possible by a recent reorganization of British counties. Results show that reorganization has restored the expected inverse relation between size and density and has restructured the size and density of counties in a manner precisely specified by underlying theory.
Population forecasting standards: Some consideralions concerning their necessity and content
Authors: Pittenger Donald B.
Published: March 2007

This paper discusses the nature of population forecasting and provides guidelines for standards that are in line with good professional practice yet do not stifle creativity or technical advances.
Family size in successive generations: The effects of birth order, intergenerational change in lifestyle, and familial satisfaction
Authors: Johnson Nan E. , Stokes C. Shannon
Published: March 2007

Studies of family size in successive generations have found a small but persistently positive effect of size of family of orientation. Recent work has suggested that this relationship may be influenced by birth order, intergenerational change in lifestyle, and familial satisfaction. Data from a 24-year longitudinal study of women in Pennsylvania indicate that number of siblings does influence size of family of procreation. More important, this relationship is stronger among women who were first-born than later-born, stronger for those not experiencing intergenerational change than for those who changed, and stronger among those who at age 16 were satisfied with their parental family than for those who were dissatisfied.
A refined estimator of measures of location of the age at first marriage
Authors: Trussell T. James
Published: March 2007

Because of bias of unknown sign and extent introduced by age misreporting when calculating the singulate mean age of marriage in the usual manner, Van de Walle has suggested a fairly robust estimator based on stable population structure. Unfortunately not much is known about the properties of this estimator. Various demographers have argued informally that it indeed estimates the SMAM; others feel that it instead estimates the mean age of marriage in a cohort, the mean age of marriage in the stable population, or the singulate median age of marriage. In this paper the properties of this estimator are examined. Further, extensions of the Van de Walle estimator based on regression are shown to be significantly superior to the estimator alone.
Effect of adjustment for sex composition in the measurement of fertility on intrinsic rates
Authors: Mitra S.
Published: March 2007

The inconsistencies inherent in the one-sex models created a need for the construction of what are known as marriage functions, especially for the measurement of fertility. But attempts to develop marriage functions have been frustrated by the inability of the proposed functions to meet certain consistency conditions and also by difficulties in empirically determining function parameters. Among several functions proposed so far, Das Gupta’s (1972) “effective population” deserves special mention. He uses both sexes in its formulation, and has shown that the constancy of fertility rates based on such a function together with the constancy of survivorship probabilities of both sexes would result in a stable population.

It is suggested in this article that the major source of the problem in a two-sex model seems to be the requirement that the model has to be specific both for sex and age. The idea of incorporating the relative composition of one sex in the age-specific rates of the other, thereby creating a function dependent on both sexes, is advanced in this article. Such functions, defined explicitly for births, can be easily translated into age-specific birth rates. In addition to simplicity in the definition and form, the conditions leading toward stability can also be established. Interestingly enough, the intrinsic rate for this two-sex model lies in the interval determined by the rates obtained from the two one-sex models.
A method for combining sample survey data and symptomatic indicators to obtain population estimates for local areas
Authors: Ericksen Eugene P.
Published: March 2007

Past efforts of statistical demographers to compute postcensal population estimates for local units have been hampered by the fact that they have had to rely completely on symptomatic information. In this paper, a new method of postcensal estimation is presented in which the symptomatic information is combined with sample data by means of a regression format. Combining symptomatic information on births, deaths, and school enrollment with sample data from the Current Population Survey, county estimates of population growth were computed by means of the new method for the postcensal period after 1960. These estimates were tested for accuracy by comparison with a set of special censuses which were conducted between 1964 and 1967 in 75 counties. The results of this test are promising, but not conclusive. A more conclusive test is currently underway using 1970 data. While the method has been tested as a means for estimating population growth, it is to be emphasized that it can be used to compute postcensal estimates for any variable for which the necessary symptomatic information and sample data are available.
Economic determinants of fertility: Results from cross-sectional aggregate data
Authors: Cain Glen G. , Weininger Adriana
Published: March 2007

Census data for areal units, SMSA’s in 1960 and cities in 1940, are used to test hypotheses and estimate parameters concerning the influence of a variety of socioeconomic variables on fertility rates of ever married white and nonwhite women aged 25–29, 30–34, 35–44, and 45–49. An economic model of the demand for children is adopted as the theoretical framework. The principal findings are that the market earnings opportunities for wives have an important negative effect on the fertility rate and that male income, representing the income of husbands, has a small but positive effect on fertility. The implication of these results is that changes in economic variables, for example, improvements in the employment opportunities and wages for wives or the establishment of a children’s allowance program, may be expected to affect fertility.
Interrelations between migration and fertility in Thailand
Authors: Goldstein Sidney
Published: March 2007

Based on special tabulations of 1960 census data on migration within Thailand, this analysis attempts to assess the role of migration in the urbanization process and the relation between migration and fertility. The importance of migration to urban growth is evidenced by the clearcut positive relationship between the percentage of persons classified as either lifetime or 5-year migrants and the urban character of their 1960 place of residence. Yet, the evidence also points to an increasing proportion of urban growth in recent decades attributable to natural increase. The specific relation between fertility and migration varies depending on the measure of migration used: Compared to nonmigrants in their place of destination, the fertility levels of lifetime migrants are not very different; but those of 5-year migrants are considerably lower. Regardless of migration status, however, fertility level is markedly lower for those living in urban places compared to those in rural places. This suggests the important role of both migration and urbanization in affecting fertility levels in Thailand.
Estimating internal migration from incomplete data using model multiregional life tables
Authors: Rogers Andrei
Published: March 2007

A principal feature of current methods of estimating demographic measures from incomplete data is the use of model life tables that approximate the mortality of a region for which reliable mortality data are unavailable. Observed decennial rates of survivorship may be used to identify out of a set of such model life tables one that best matches the observed data. This paper introduces the concept of a modelmultiregional life table and outlines a procedure for selecting an appropriate one using place-of-birth-by-residence data.
First-generation effects on second-generation fertility
Authors: Ben-Porath Yoram
Published: March 2007

The number of children born to the second generation is shown to be inversely related to tbe predicted income of the first generation (father’s father) and to the number of siblings in the second generation. This is true even when second-generation characteristics are taken account of. This long-term effect may be the result of parental influences on the tastes, opportunities or genes of their children. They do get an empirical expression because of the imperfect and partial measurement of second-generation characteristics.
Birth trajectory under changing fertility conditions
Authors: Frauenthal James C.
Published: March 2007

An initially stable population of women is assumed to shift its reproductive behavior to a different level either abruptly or in a prescribed gradual fashion. A closed-form solution which is exact up to about 30 years after the reproductive adjustment is found for the resulting birth trajectory. Exact expressions are also found for the long-time asymptotic behavior of both the birth trajectory and the total population size when the shift in reproductive behavior is to bare replacement level. Accurate approximations to these asymptotic results are then derived and used to illustrate why a growing population continues to grow even after shifting to bare replacement reproductive behavior.
Standardization of cumulative failure rates
Authors: Herson Jay
Published: March 2007

A method is proposed for standardizing life table cumulative failure rates for various cohorts so that they are adjusted to the distribution of exposure by age group for a particular cohort. An approximate standard error for the standardized cumulative failure rate is presented. Application of the methodology is illustrated by a numerical example.
Contraceptive practice required to meet a prescribed crude birth rate target: a proposed macro-model (tabrap) and hypothetical illustrations
Authors: Nortman Dorothy , Bongaarts John
Published: March 2007

TABRAP (TArget Birth Rate Acceptor Program) is a computer programmed model that provides a direct solution to the problem of determining the total annual numbers of contraceptive acceptors required to achieve a prescribed crude birth rate target path. Applied to an initial population for which age structure, the fertility schedule, and expected trends in life expectancy and age-specific proportions of females married are known, TABRAP incorporates the following factors: age at acceptance, with acceptors drawn from currently married nonusers; age-method-specific attrition rates of users; a potential fertility schedule of acceptors that allows for aging and sterility; and allowances both for postpartum anovulation and nine months for gestation to time properly the averted births. TABRAP generates annual data on acceptors, couple-years of use, births averted and age-specific fertility rates that meet the crude birth rate target. Resulting changes in population size, age structure and crude vital rates, also yielded, are invariant with respect to acceptor age and method mix. Assuming a target to reduce the crude birth rate from 45 to 30 in ten years, TABRAP is illustrated for seven mixes of acceptor age-method combinations applied to a population approximating that of Thailand, circa 1965.
Residential preferences and population distribution
Authors: Fuguitt Glenn V. , Zuiches James J.
Published: March 2007

Public opinion research has revealed decided preferences for living in rural areas and small towns, and proponents of population deconcentration have interpreted this as support for their policies. This study, based on a national sample, yielded similar results, but when we introduced the additional possibility of a preference for proximity to a larger city, then the rural areas preferred were found, for most respondents, to be those within the commuting range of a metropolitan central city. Although persons wishing to live near large cities were found to be looking for the same qualities of living sought by those who prefer a more remote location, these findings are not, in general, consistent with the argument that public preferences support strategies of population dispersal into nonmetropolitan areas. Instead they indicate that most of those who wish to live in a different location favor the peripheral metropolitan ring areas that have, in fact, been growing rapidly by in-migration.
Living arrangements of widows in the United States and Israel, 1960 and 1961
Authors: Chevan Albert , Korson J. Henry
Published: March 2007

One of the neglected areas in the study of the social structure of the family is that of widowhood, the last stage in the family life cycle. A study of living arrangements of the widowed provides an opportunity to examine the kinship solidarity of a society and to point up in bold relief the influence of a variety of factors that contribute to the residential patterns of the widowed. The data in this study were drawn from the 1960 Census of the United States and the 1961 Census of Israel, the latest which offer comparable data. Five ethnic-religious groups are examined in Israel and eight in the United States. Goode and others have stated that family modernization is a universal trend, and this is borne out by the results of this study. The small family system shows that age and children ever born are the most important predictors of living alone among the widowed in both countries. Otherwise, among the 13 ethnic-religious and ethnicracial groups there is a general similarity of the importance of the variables in the total prediction scheme.
The difference in unwanted births between blacks and whites
Authors: Bauman Karl E. , Udry J. Richard
Published: March 2007

Blacks are more likely than whites to have unwanted births. A common explanation for that difference is that blacks use less effective contraceptive methods, use contraception less effectively, and use contraception less often than whites. Analysis of data from 17 cities in our family planning evaluation project suggested that, among women living in low-income neighborhoods, the black-white difference in unwanted births was not due to (1) blacks reaching desired completed parity at younger ages than whites, (2) differences in age or parity in our black and white samples, (3) black-white differences in current use of physician-administered contraception, or (4) blacks being more likely than whites to adopt physician-administered contraception after having an unwanted birth. Black-white differences which might have contributed to relatively more unwanted births among blacks were (1) blacks desired fewer children, (2) blacks were less likely than whites to use nonphysician-administered methods and more likely than whites to use no contraception, and (3) blacks had higher failure rates than whites subsequent to the adoption of physician-administered methods and when not using those methods. Comparisons are made with the 1965 and 1970 National Fertility Studies, and program implications of the findings discussed.
Estimation of vital rates by means of monte carlo simulation
Authors: Dyke Bennett , MacCluer Jean W.
Published: March 2007

Monte Carlo simulation has been used to estimate age-specific fertility and mortality rates for a small population,the French-derived isolate of Northside on St. Thomas, U. S. Virgin Islands. Estimates were based on data collected in a household census and genealogical survey and on birth, death, and marriage records for the years 1916to 1966. During this 50-year period (in which the population size increased from 202 to 657), the numbers of births and deaths were too, small to estimate age-specific rates directly, and in addition, death registration was incomplete. Mortality rates were estimated using a simulation program in which mortality was the only stochastic variable. A model mortality schedule was chosen which most accurately reproduced the growth pattern of the population over the 50-year period. To estimate fertility rates, a more complex simulation model was used in which fertility, nuptiality, and mortality were random variables with probability distributions. Preliminary estimates of fertility were made from the birth records and used as input to this simulation program. Birth probabilities were adjusted empirically from one set of simulation runs to the next, until population growth rates, as well as other demographic characteristics, were similar in the real and simulated populations. The birth rates which produced the best fit to the real population data were taken as the estimated age-specific fertility schedule. To reproduce the real population age structure more closely, secular changes in birth probabilities were applied.
On long-term mortality trends in the United States, 1850–1968
Authors: Rao S. L. N.
Published: March 2007

This study of United States life tables analyzes the process of mortality transition during 1850–1968. Special features of the study are (1) a phase-specific, rather than an age-specific, analysis of mortality and (2) use of measures based on person-years of life (nLx) in phase-intervals, rather than survival rates (nPx) or expectation of life at given ages (exo). The analysis suggests that the historical transition of mortality in the United States can be described as a three-stage process: an initial stage of slow improvement in life expectancy during 1850–1900, a second stage of rapid improvement during 1900–1950, and a third stage of slower improvement since 1950. Quantitative measures of rapidity of mortality decline in the several phases indicate that they are not identical for all phases and in all stages. The analysis also suggests that there have been rapid changes in the components of overall mortality differentials by sex and race in the United States. The paper draws attention to the need for studies of factors in variations of mortality at ages beyond 50 in the United States population subgroups.
On the efficiency of the estimates of life table functions
Authors: Mitra S.
Published: March 2007

Expected values and variances of several life table functions have been obtained by converting the sample estimates of age-specific mortality rates to probabilities of dying by Reed-Merrell’s approximation. The expressions also permit the development of a procedure that will enable the researcher, constrained usually by his limited resources, to maximize the efficiency of his sampling technique. Needless to say, these results will be particularly useful for countries where national vital statistics are not adequate for construction of life tables, and also for countries where such tables are usually obtained by comparing age distributions of successive censuses.
A functional classification of metropolitan communities
Authors: Kass Roy
Published: March 2007

Five major approaches to the functional classification of communities have been offered. Although most of them allow the recognition of a community as specialized in more than one function, their application necessitates consideration of the several individual functions one at a time. This paper offers a method for classification that takes account of the entire configuration of selected functions.

Eight industrial groups were used in determining which SMSA’s of 1960 had similar configurations of functional activity. The procedure for determining this similarity, which reduced the job to a manageable size, is described as are the distinguishing functional configurations.
Estimating the incidence and prevalence of birth orders: A technique using census data
Authors: Veevers J. E.
Published: March 2007

Although birth order is recognized as an important social variable, the incidence of various birth orders is often difficult to assess using vital statistics. A technique is described whereby the incidence of birth orders in a population may be estimated directly from census data on the number of children ever born to post-menopausal women. The technique has the advantages of allowing ready utilization of existing and widely available data, based on very large samples on which considerable supplementary information is available. In addition, it draws attention to a relatively neglected aspect of differential fertility, namely, the child’s perspective as opposed to the mother’s view. Limitations of the technique relating to quality of data, to multiple births, and to differentials in infant and maternal mortality are discussed, and possible applications in demography and sociology are suggested.
Design of household sample surveys to test death registration completeness
Authors: Sirken Monroe G.
Published: March 2007

This paper studies the design effect of counting rules, for linking deaths to housing units where they are enumerated in the survey, on the sampling variance of dual system and single system estimators of death registration completeness. It investigates estimators based on conventional rules that uniquely link each death to a single housing unit as well as estimators based on multiplicity rules which permit deaths to be linked to more than one housing unit. Sampling variance formulas are derived containing parameters that reflect the efficiency of the counting rule. Estimates of these parameters for different counting rules are compared utilizing information that was collected in a mortality survey experiment. Finally, the design of a national death registration test is considered and the sample size implications of different counting rules arc compared.
The 1960s: A decade of progress for blacks?
Authors: Farley Reynolds , Hermalin Albert
Published: March 2007

Between 1960 and 1970 blacks, as well as whites, improved their socioeconomic status. Among both races, educational attainment increased, the occupational distribution was upgraded, and real purchasing power rose markedly. In almost every comparison, the gains were somewhat greater among blacks than among whites and thus most indicators of racial differentiation declined. Nevertheless, the changes of this decade failed to eliminate racial differences with regard to socioeconomic status. In all comparisons, except for the income of certain groups of women, blacks were at a disadvantage when compared to whites both at the start and at the end of this decade, and very large racial differences remain. Further socioeconomic progress by blacks during the 1970s will probably not eliminate racial differences. The article concludes by relating the socioeconomic trends to such other aspects of race relations as integration, governmental policy, and the attitudes of whites and blacks.
The influence of number and ages of children on residential mobility
Authors: Long Larry H.
Published: March 2007

Married couples without children are more geographically mobile than those with children, at least through age 45. Among husband-wife couples with children, ages of children exercises a consistent mobility differential; when age of family head is controlled for, families with children under 6 years old only are the most mobile both within and between counties, followed by those with children under 6 and 6–17 years old, and followed in turn by families with children 6–17 years old only. The relationship between number of children and the probability of moving within counties has a reverse J-shape for family heads at each age under 45; after age 45 the relationship assumes a more normal J shape. Number of children is inversely related to the probability of migrating (moving between counties) for husband-wife families in which the husband is under 35; after age 35 the relationship is erratic. The effect of ages of children generally holds for each size of family. Female family heads with children are generally more geographically mobile than male family heads (wife present) at the same age and with the same number and ages of children present.
A further note on the relation between economic development and fertility
Authors: Ekanem Ita I.
Published: March 2007

The relationship between economic development and fertility has been examined by several scholars. In particular Heer, using data from 41 nations (24 developing and 17 developed) tested three hypotheses. His objective was to reconcile the two prevailing views in this context, namely, that economic development on one hand promotes and on the-other inhibits fertility. However, when we reran Heer’s data separately for the two groups of countries in his list, the pattern of relationships between the variables that he used changed significantly. On this basis, we restricted this study to a further examination of his three hypotheses using data from developing nations only but for two points in time.

The evidence from this study seems to support two of the hypotheses in Heer’s study. In other words, whether the analysis of this relationship is restricted to developing nations or includes both developed and developing nations, it remains true that increased economic development implies a decreased illiteracy and a decreased IMR; a decreased illiteracy and IMR are optimal conditions of low fertility. Nonetheless, the data examined here do not seem to resolve the question of whether increased economic development implies a decreased fertility. Accordingly, continued testing of the hypothesis at further points in time with more accurate data is in order.
The temporal relationship of marriage, conception, and birth in Massachusetts
Authors: Whelan Elizabeth Murphy
Published: March 2007

An investigation into the timing of first births in relationship to the date of marriage in Massachusetts confirmed the finding of previous national and local birth timing studies that first births likely to have been conceived before the marriage of their parents constitute a substantial proportion of all first births. The differential frequency of premaritally conceived births among various subgroups appeared to account for the variation noted in the overall timing patterns of first births after marriage.

Data were gathered through linkage of certificates of birth of a sample of legitimate first children with the marriage record of their parents. Analysis of the marriage-first birth interval by maternal age and race, type of marriage ceremony, and occupation of the bride and groom were conducted and comparisons with previously published data were made. Separate consideration was given to the frequency and characteristics of those births likely to be premaritally conceived and those likely to have been conceived after the wedding.
Retrospective evidence of a decline of fertility and child mortality in Bangladesh
Authors: Schultz T. Paul
Published: March 2007

A detailed analysis of survey data collected in 1961–1962 for a sample of 4200 families in central East Pakistan produced consistent and reasonable estimates of birth and death rates for the preceding decade. Extremely high levels of infant and child mortality declined noticeably in the period 1952–1961. Age-specific birth rates to married women also decreased in the decade for women over the age of 19, while a small increase was recorded for married women aged 15 to 19. During the 1950s total marital fertility declined about one-fifth. Birth rates remained high in 1960 according to these estimates, but there is reason to anticipate further reductions in birth rates, particularly among older women. To improve understanding of the determinants of fertility and to aid in the formulation of policy to cope with population trends, statistical analysis must increasingly consider information on families over time. Retrospective household survey data may provide the empirical base for this line of inquiry.
Factors influencing the casefinding of migrations in the Liberian fertility survey
Authors: Rumford John
Published: March 2007

A study was made of the factors that affected the casefinding of internal migrations in Liberia using the Chandrasekar—Deming dual enumeration and tabulation methods. The results of this work suggest that the recording and not recording of a migration is not a random occurrence but is associated with a particular enumeration system, origin and destination of the migration, and the migrant’s age, sex, and location of current residence.
A mathematical model for resource allocation in population programs
Authors: Lawrence Charles E. , Mundigo Axel I. , ReVelle Charles S.
Published: March 2007

The reduction of population growth rates through family planning programs is being attempted in many of the developing nations of the world. This activity lends itself aptly to mathematical modeling. Building from the well-known difference equation model of population growth, a model is constructed which integrates population dynamics, program activities, and resource consumption. The model may be used predictively to assess the outcome of various program activities. Alternatively, it may be used to determine the pattern of activities which yields the greatest reduction in births under the projected resource constraints. A further use of the model is the identification of the parameters to which predictions are most sensitive; such information provides valuable insights to those gathering the input data. The model is here applied to a family planning program currently in progress. An evaluation of the feasibility of that program’s goals is provided, as well as information on limiting resources, data sensitivity, and the most important ages for contraceptive acceptance.
The relationship of family planning to savings and consumption in Taiwan
Authors: Freedman Deborah S.
Published: March 2007

This study relates fertility behavior to modern economic behavior, namely, saving and consumption of modern durables, for a sample of couples in Taiwan. It uses only couples who say they want no more children, and these couples are further classified by current use of contraception and by whether or not they already had excess fertility. Couples who are successful fertility planners, i.e., those who have no unwanted children and are current users of contraception, are distinctive with regard to modern economic behavior as compared to couples who do not use contraception or have excess fertility. Successful planners are more likely to save and to have more modern durables; these differentials remain when adjustments are made for the effects of family income, wife’s age, wife’s education, and duration of marriage. It seems that the kind of planning behavior which enables a couple to successfully plan their family size also enables them to manage their economic affairs so that they can save and enjoy more modern consumption goods.
The poor as a “perfect contraceptive population” and zero population growth
Authors: Bauman Karl E.
Published: March 2007

A goal of the federal family planning program is to enable women to have only those children they want, with priority given to the poor. Is that compatible with the goal of those who want zero population growth? This analysis shows that prevention of all unwanted births to women in low-income families would have yielded completed fertility much above that required for zero population growth.
The effects of demographic factors on age composition and the implications for per capita income
Authors: Janowitz Barbara
Published: March 2007

Multiple regression analysis techniques are used to measure the impact of variations in fertility and mortality rates on the population of labor-force age. The results of this analysis suggest that the impact of reductions in mortality on age composition are dependent on the level of mortality already attained, whereas reductions in fertility, as expected, increase the population in the nondependent age groups. The direct effect of vital rates on potential per capita income is assessed using the results of the regression equations, and such results suggest that variations in per capita income as large as 20 percent could be accounted for by variations in vital rates.
Age composition in the absence of mortality and in other odd circumstances
Authors: Coale Ansley J.
Published: March 2007

The age composition of populations experiencing no mortality and various kinds of fertility is derived. It is then shown that, if successive mortality schedules can be expressed as the sum of a component that varies with age and a component that varies with time, only the former has any effect on the age structure of the population. One implication is that a population in which mortality varies with time but not with age has the same composition as a population with no mortality at all.
A more accurate short method of approximating Lotka’s r
Authors: McCann James C.
Published: March 2007

This paper describes a short method of computing the intrinsic growth rate which yields more accurate estimates than other methods which have similar information requirements. The procedure is recommended when hand or desk calculation of the intrinsic growth rate is necessary.
Birth control and the black American: A matter of genocide?
Authors: Weisbord Robert G.
Published: March 2007

During the 1960’s and continuing into the 1970’s, the charge that birth control and abortion are integral elements of a white genocidal conspiracy directed against Afro-Americans has been heard with increasing frequency and stridency in black communities. The genocide theory finds greatest acceptance among spokesmen for black nationalist and black revolutionary groups, but suspicion of family planning programs is not limited to them. An analysis of black leadership opinion on birth control is provided in this paper. The black debate over the desirability of population limitation is traced back approximately fifty years. It began with a dispute between those blacks who believed that in sheer numbers there was strength and those blacks, such as W. E. B. DuBois, who argued that among human races, as among vegetables, quality and not quantity counted. An appreciation of the sexual exploitation of the chattel slave in the ante-bellum period, which did not end with emancipation, is also essential to an understanding of the roots and rationale of the genocide notion which are the foci of this paper.
The family size utility function
Authors: Terhune Kenneth W. , Kaufman Sol
Published: March 2007

This article discusses the family size utility function (FSUF), which portrays the relative strengths of preferences among family sizes, as held by an individual, couple, or group. Derivable from the FSUF are indications of motivation to seek or avoid additional children, indications which may prove useful for understanding fertility decisions and for predicting completed fertility. A method is described for assessing the FSUF with data obtainable by interview surveys, and case studies of actual FSUF’s are presented. The article concludes with theoretical and empirical questions for further investigation of the FSUF.
Evaluation of an experimental short interview form designed to collect fertility data: The case of Peru
Authors: Marckwardt Albert M.
Published: March 2007

A comparison is made of demographic data gathered using an experimental short interview form with that from the more traditional in-depth fertility and contraceptive KAP interview. The short form is weakest in measuring current fertility, somewhat more adequate in measuring cumulative fertility, and about equally as effective as the depth interview in measuring infant/child mortality. Most of the deficiency in the quality of the short-interview data can be attributed to accepting information from other household members or neighbors when the woman herself was not available.
Reactions to Blake and Das Gupta’s “The fallacy of the five million women: A re-estimate”
Authors: Cutright Phillips
Published: March 2007

This article reviews the methods used by Blake and Das Gupta (1972) to estimate need for contraceptive protection among single (never-married) and previously married women below the near-poverty line in 1966. More recent data than those used by Blake and Das Gupta to estimate coital activity and protection by contraception allow calculation of alternative estimates of the number of single and previously married women in need in 1966. To assess the relative accuracy of the two estimates, we introduce a validity check. Using vital data from the National Natality Survey and other sources, we calculate a birth rate and a pregnancy rate for low-income single and previously married women, using the two estimates of the number of women in need—i.e., the population at risk of these vital events. If the two estimates of the number in need of contraceptive protection are either excessively low or high, this should be apparent in the resulting birth and pregnancy rates.
A hazards-Model analysis of the covariates of infant and child mortality in Sri Lanka
Authors: Trussell James , Hammerslough Charles
Published: March 2007

The purpose of this paper is twofold: (a) to provide a complete self-contained exposition of estimating life tables with covariates through the use of hazards models, and (b) to illustrate this technique with a substan-tive analysis of child mortality in Sri Lanka, thereby demonstrating that World Fertility Survey data are a valuable source for the study of child mortality. We show that life tables with covariates can be easily estimated with standard computer packages designed for analysis of contingency tables. The substantive analysis confirms and supplements an earlier study of infant and child mortality in Sri Lanka by Meegama. Those factors found to be strongly associated with mortality are mother’s and father’s education, time period of birth, urban/rural/estate residence, ethnicity, sex, birth order, age of the mother at the birth, and type of toilet facility.
Temporal variations in mortality: A comparison of U. S. suicides and motor vehicle fatalities, 1972–1976
Authors: Bollen Kenneth A.
Published: March 2007

Among the various types of mortality, motor vehicle fatalities (MVF) and suicides are two that are very responsive to social, economic, and psychological factors. The analysis of the temporal patterns of suicides and MVF points to important but neglected forces affecting them. This paper examines the daily patterns of MVF and suicides for the United States from 1972 to 1976. The effects of the day of the week, month, year, and holidays on these types of mortality are estimated. Total MVF and suicides, as well as daily differentials by sex, age, and race, are analyzed with regression techniques. The results show that temporal variations are stronger in MVF than in suicides but are present in both. MVF tend to peak on Saturday, in the summer months, in 1972 and 1973, and on holidays. Suicides are generally highest on Monday, in the spring months, in 1975 and 1976, and on nonholidays. Differentials in the temporal patterns are evident. For instance, whites generally have a sharper decline in suicides on holidays than do nonwhites. The holiday peak in MVF for the 60 and over population is Christmas, while it is New Year’s for the younger age groups. Males exhibit a greater increase in suicides from March to May than do females. Finally, the results of a comparison of the daily patterns of MVF and suicides revealed a negative correlation. This contrasted with the strong positive relationship between MVF and suicides generally found in cross-sectional studies. The implications of these findings are briefly discussed.
Measuring the tightness of a marriage squeeze
Authors: Schoen Robert
Published: March 2007

The “marriage squeeze,” or the effect on marriage of an imbalance between the numbers of males and females, has been seen as having a great influence on contemporary marriage behavior. Nonetheless, the literature does not contain a clear definition of exactly what a marriage squeeze is and contains few quantitative estimates of its impact on marriage. The present article provides a precise definition of the marriage squeeze in equation (2), and applies it to measure both artificially produced marriage squeezes in two-sex nuptiality stable populations and the experience of the United States during the period 1950–1990. The marriage squeeze is shown to be capable of producing significant changes in both the level and distribution of marriage, and it appears to be having such an impact in some contemporary Third World societies. For developed
The number of illegal migrants of Mexican origin in the United States: Sex ratio-based estimates for 1980
Authors: Bean Frank D. , King Allan G. , Passel Jeffrey S.
Published: March 2007

This article reports the results of applying a sex ratio-based method to estimate the number of undocumented Mexicans residing in the United States in 1980. The approach centers on a comparison between the hypothetical sex ratio one would expect to find in Mexico in the absence of emigration to the United States and the sex ratio that is in fact reported in preliminary results from the 1980 Mexican Census. The procedure involves, inter alia, assuming a range of values for the sex ratio at birth and for census coverage differentials by sex in Mexico. Even the combinations of these values most likely to result in large estimates suggest that no more than 4 million illegal migrants of Mexican origin were residing in the United States in 1980.
Generalization of the immigration and the stable population model
Authors: Mitra S.
Published: March 2007

Building upon an idea presented by Espenshade, Bouvier and Arthur (1982) about the eventual stationarity of a population subjected to a net reproduction rate of less than one and a constant stream of immigration, this note reports the consequences upon the birth trajectory for all possible values of the net reproduction rate. It has been shown that when the net reproduction rate is equal to one, the number of births increases linearly with time. As may be expected, the increase is exponential for values of net reproduction rate greater than one.
The threshold hypothesis: evidence from less developed Latin American countries, 1950 to 1980
Authors: Cutright Phillips , Hargens Lowell
Published: March 2007

Historical research among European countries finds large differences in the level of social, economic or demographic development among countries, or regions within countries at the time marital fertility rates began their decline from traditional high levels. This research tests a threshold hypothesis which holds that fertility will decline from traditional high levels if threshold levels of life expectancy and literacy are surpassed. Using a pooled regression analysis of 1950, 1960, 1970 and 1980 crude births rates (CBRs) in 20 less developed Latin American countries, in conjunction with 10-year lagged measures of social, economic and family planning program development, analyses reveal statistically significant effects of passing Beaver’s (1975) threshold levels of 1950 literacy, or 1950 life expectancy, that are independent of levels of lagged literacy (or lagged life expectancy), economic and family planning program development, as well as measures that control period effects .