Anticipatory Climate Resilience in Coastal Urban Areas: Transformative Impact of Predictive Analysis, AI Solutions, and Innovative Indices
Authors: Ndatabaye Sapiens , Dabiri Zahra , Lang Stefan , Wendt Lorenz 
Published: March 2024

In the intricate tapestry of coastal urban areas, the realities of climate change unfold with discernible impacts across regions like Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, Rwanda, Somalia, and Kenya. Experiencing a spectrum of climate-related challenges, from extreme weather patterns to rising sea levels, these areas underscore the pressing need for proactive measures. The Lake Chad Basin, encompassing Nigeria, Chad, and Cameroon, grapples with heightened climate upheavals, exacerbating existing insecurities. Simultaneously, nations in East Africa, such as Rwanda, Somalia, and Kenya, navigate the repercussions of unpredictable weather patterns affecting agriculture, water resources, and community livelihoods. The humanitarian community, entrenched in its response, often finds itself constrained by the reactive nature of interventions. Here, the transformative potential of predictive analysis and artificial intelligence (AI) shines a light on proactive measures. Consider the INFORM Climate Change Index1, a forward-looking projection providing quantified estimates of climate change impacts on the future risk of humanitarian crises and disasters. Developed through collaboration between the Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change and the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission, this innovative index modifies indicators in the hazard and exposure dimensions based on projected climate and socio-economic trends. The link between anticipatory humanitarian action and predictive analysis becomes more apparent when we delve into the numbers. Incorporating digital solutions, especially AI, significantly boosts the effectiveness of anticipatory measures. Recent initiatives show that when predictive analysis, AI-driven solutions, and innovative indices are integrated, a substantial percentage of climate-related events can be avoided. These digital tools empower coastal urban communities to construct preemptive barriers, devise effective mitigation strategies, and navigate challenges with resilience. The transformative impact is not just theoretical; it's quantifiable, with numbers indicating that a significant portion of potential crises can be averted through proactive measures informed by predictive analytics. This groundbreaking approach, where digital solutions are seamlessly integrated into anticipatory humanitarian action, transforms coastal urban communities from mere responders to architects of their climate destinies. The narrative, rooted in real-world examples and bolstered by numerical evidence, showcases the tangible benefits of technology. The path forward involves AI, predictive analysis, and innovative indices as indispensable tools in scripting resilience stories. As we explore the depths of climate-induced insecurities across diverse regions, the abstract underscores the pivotal role of AI, coupled with innovative indices like INFORM Climate Change, in guiding coastal urban communities towards a future where climate challenges are met with informed, proactive, and resilient responses.1https://drmkc.jrc.ec.europa.eu/inform-index/INFORM-Climate-Change