bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Confessionalization, 1647-1702
Authors: Israel Jonathan
Published: October 2023

The Dutch Republic became a freer, more flexible society after 1630, at least as regards religion and thought, if not life-style. Remonstrants, Lutherans, Mennonites, Collegiants, Jews, and Catholics all benefited from this change. At Amsterdam, it first became usual for Catholics to have their children baptized not in the public Church but by Catholic priests in the late 1640s.’ The same shift occurred in Rotterdam slightly earlier, in the 163os,2 and at Leiden, somewhat later, in the 165os. It was indeed during the 1650s that all the large former Counter-Remonstrant towns in Holland-Leiden, Haarlem, Gouda, and Enkhuizen-finally ceased breaking up Catholic conventicles and harassing Catholic priests. The Reformed consistory at Haarlem complained to the burgomasters, in June 1665, about the great change which had taken place in the city over the last ten years, with whole streets and quarters assuming a Catholic character and priests no longer concealing their activity.
Freedom and Order
Authors: Israel Jonathan
Published: October 2023

Descartes complained, in 1643, that the United Provinces were not as ‘free’ as he had originally supposed. Decades later, Spinoza and Bayle, not to mention Koerbagh and Walten (see pp. 919, 929 below) had still greater reason to lament the limited character of Dutch freedom. During the seventeenth century, and early eighteenth, foreign visitors routinely praised the comparative freedom, both for groups and the individual, prevailing in the Republic. But the more perceptive also noticed that this freedom was a complex phenomenon rooted in a deep preoccupation with order and discipline.
1672: Year of Disaster
Authors: Israel Jonathan
Published: October 2023

The year 1672 was the most traumatic of the Dutch Golden Age. It was a year of military collapse, of almost complete demoralization, the moment when the overthrow of the Republic, if not in its entirety, then certainly as a major power, seemed at hand. It was the year of the greatest crash on the Amsterdam Exchange of early modern times, paralysing Dutch commerce and finance, the year when public building ceased and the art market withered, with consequences for art, artists, and architecture noticeable for decades to come. It was also a year of sensational domestic political events and feverish ideological conflict. Finally, it was the year when the common populace and militias intervened in the political process, and ideological warfare, more extensively than at any time since the 1580s, with lasting consequences for political and social life.
The Republic of the Regents, 1702-1747
Authors: Israel Jonathan
Published: October 2023

William III died at Hampton Court, in England, on 19 March 1702. The news was communicated to the people of the United Provinces by a prolonged tolling of church bells. Six days after his death, Heinsius, Pensionary of Holland, appeared before the States General, announcing that the States of Holland had decided to leave the stadholderate vacant. This was against the expressed wish of the dead monarch, who had already tried, in 1701, to persuade Holland to designate the young Frisian Stadholder, Johan Willem Friso (1687-qu), son of Hendrik Casimir, his successor as Stadholder of Holland. 1 But the Holland regents preferred to do without a Stadholder, and suspend the political functions of the stadholderate, precisely as in 1650. Ever since the death of Hendrik Casimir, in 1696, the childless William III had, in all provinces, been grooming Johan Willem Friso as his successor.2 The Stadholder-king’s last testament, opened in a special ceremony at The Hague, in May 1702, in the presence of the British and Prussian ambassadors, declared Johan Willem Friso William Ill’s sole ‘general heir’.
Society
Authors: Israel Jonathan
Published: October 2023

Most fundamental changes in Dutch society during the eighteenth century were consequences of the faltering of the Dutch overseas trading system-—and the industries and fisheries tied to it. Throughout the Golden Age, since 1590, the phases of the overseas trading system had been the chief factor shaping population distribution, urbanization, employment, prosperity, poverty, and urban vitality generally, and this was equally true during the latter phases of the Republic’s economic and social development, beginning with the collapse of Dutch world trade primacy, in the decades 1720-40.
The Churches
Authors: Israel Jonathan
Published: October 2023

During the eighteenth century, the Dutch Reformed Church, the public Church, retained the allegiance of the majority of the population throughout the Republic except the Generality Lands, Twenthe, and the southern fringe of Gelderland beneath the Waal. Nevertheless, with the growth of toleration, a marked feature of Dutch life in the eighteenth century, there was a noticeable tendency, virtually throughout the Republic (except Friesland), for the preponderance of the Reformed majority to be reduced.
Colonies and Distant Monarchs 1558-1649
Authors: Lloyd T O
Published: October 2023

When Elizabeth I came to the throne of England in 1558 she and her government in London ruled less iand than her predecessors had done for hundreds of years. For about four centuries the rulers of England had been trying to conquer and rule France, Scotland, and Ireland, but they had just lost their last foothold in France at Calais, their position in Ireland was as insecure as it had ever been, and the Scottish problem had taken an altogether new turn because Mary the Queen of Scotland could present a good claim to the English throne. By the time of Elizabeth’s death in 1603 Englishmen did not rule any more land outside the British Isles than they had done 45 years earlier but their seafaring position had been transformed.
Monarchs and their Colonies 1649-1714
Authors: Lloyd T O
Published: October 2023

The new government set out in 1649 to establish its position with a degree of success which must have surprised everyone who knew about its problems and had not realized the great energy that religious faith gave to its leaders. It transformed the way that the English dealt with the world outside Europe; even though Charles’s son came back to the throne as Charles II in 1660, the Republic changed the direction of English imperial policy and set a pattern followed at least until the death in 1714 of the last direct descendant of Charles I to sit on the throne. Queen Anne died a year after the signing of the Treaty of Utrecht, which had brought to an end a cycle of wars which, while primarily concerned with the balance of power in Europe, had given English governments an opportunity to take colonies away from other European countries and increase their empire by annexation as well as by settlement. Annexation showed that the English government had much more power to take action outside Europe than it had possessed in the first half of the century.
Peace and War 1713-1763
Authors: Lloyd T O
Published: October 2023

The long wars against France had left the British more confident about their position overseas than before, but not necessarily more interested in activity outside Europe. Between 1713 and 1763 they paid little attention to the colonies in America, and at least for the first half of the period it was hard to see what else could have been done. A framework for governing the colonies across the Atlantic had been set up but the British government of the early eighteenth century was not at all energetic in handling problems inside Britain and was most unlikely to exert itself about things further afield. Some people felt that choosing as Queen Anne’s successor in 1714 a ruler from Germany, who might neglect British interests for the sake of his Electorate of Hanover, was already a warning that the British should be careful about any overseas entanglements. For twenty-five years Britain took little interest in the outside world and even managed to remain at peace with France. After 1739 this all came to an end, and Britain spent the next quarter-century at war with France, directly or by proxy in the colonies, with only a year or two of armed truce.
War and Survival, 1763-1791
Authors: Lloyd T O
Published: October 2023

When the Seven Years war came to its triumphant but controversy-stained end, the government was left to reckon its gains and count the cost. After forcing a slightly reluctant Parliament to accept the peace terms, Lord Bute retired, partly because he thought the London mob would lynch him. The danger to him was not just that the peace terms were unpopular in London but also that Scotsmen, of whom he was obviously the most conspicuous, were hated. This sentiment was focused and encouraged by John Wilkes, a politician who realized that people were growing more ready to respond to a call for liberty on several issues connected with the freedom of the press and the responsibility of MPs to their constituents. In an ill-formulated way he appealed to the emerging feeling in Britain and in America that the state ought to avoid making life difficult for its subjects and that subjects ought to be free to express their opinion about government policy and even to have some effect on what governments did. Wilkes was too disreputable to become a political leader, but he said a good many things for which there was a growing audience; in the early 1760s he struggled against the government’s wide-ranging police powers, in the late 1760s he defended the right of constituencies to choose MPs whom the House of Commons found obnoxious, in the early 1770s he asserted the right of the press to report parliamentary debates, and later on he warned the British government that it was treating its American subjects most unwisely.
The Stress of Revolution, 1788-1826
Authors: Lloyd T O
Published: October 2023

Shortly before Cornwallis retired from office in India, Britain had gone to war with France once more, and the long wars dominated British foreign policy and military activity from 1793 until the final defeat of Napoleon in 1815. Imperial affairs were not quite so deeply affected by the wars; the world outside Europe was changed much more by the pressure of forces building up inside Britain than by Pitt’s attempts at imperial strategy. He was a child of his age in his free trade views on economics, but he was his father’s son when it came to military planning, and in the 1790s he committed the country to a policy of attacking French colonies that was no longer effective. The French had lost interest in colonies; Napoleon showed a few flickers of concern about the world outside Europe, but they soon died away. There was some truth in the Gilray cartoon which showed the world as a plum-pudding with Napoleon hacking away at the portion marked Europe while Pitt carved up the rest of the globe in a more leisurely manner, but this result was not brought about by Pitt’s strategy. His attacks on sugar islands were expensive and unsuccessful; what transformed the world outside Europe was the expansion and mechanization of the textile and metal trades in Britain that became known as the industrial revolution, and the accompanying growth of population. Colonial possessions of the old type would not be so useful in this new situation.
Independence at Once 1960-1983
Authors: Lloyd T O
Published: October 2023

A decisive change in British policy in Africa and in the general attitude to colonies took place at the end of the 1950s. Until then British statements about colonies stressed the idea of training them for independence, which was at times put explicitly in terms of the success of gradual withdrawal from India, and otherwise tacitly drew on memories of the long period during which the colonies of white settlement turned imperceptibly into independent nations. But in the 1960s and 1970s the idea of gradual preparation was laid aside almost completely and was replaced by the determination of the imperial rulers and their colonial subjects to end the process as fast as possible. The accustomed forms of opening the legislative council to elections on a basis of universal suffrage, handing power to a local leader, and holding an independence ceremony on lines that were almost always inspired by memories of Delhi in August 1947 were still observed, but at a pace which transformed the process in the way that a film is changed by being run more quickly.
The World after the Empire
Authors: Lloyd T O
Published: October 2023

In the decades immediately after the great wave of independence at the beginning of the 1960s problems of nation-building and constitutional government arose in several of the countries that had just emerged from imperial rule. The individual colonies that made up the British Empire were in many cases large enough to contain a diversity of groups that could undermine the unity of the new country if they were not handled with great care. Many of the governments faced with this problem decided that the unrestrained democracy that they had welcomed when challenging British rule was too dangerous to be maintained after independence, and tried one¬ party rule or military rule. There was no sign that these expedients solved the problem, they had many other disadvantages and sometimes they were clearly exploited by politicians who wanted a monopoly of power. By the 1990s most members of the Commonwealth had had enough experience of other constitutional arrangements to understand the implications of Churchill’s statement that democracy is the worst type of government, except for all the others. Similar changes were taking place in many parts of the world, but the Commonwealth did express its own commitment to multi-party democracy by policy statements of its own and by steps towards applying pressure to members who did not meet those standards to do better or to cease to be members.
Ranks of society
Authors: Morgan Philip
Published: October 2023

When, in 1381, John Ball preached a sermon at Blackheath on the familiar text, ‘Whan Adam dalf, and Eve span, Wo was thanne a gentilman?’, he had questioned the existence of social rank and distinctions before the Fall.
The Economic and Social Context
Authors: Sharpe J A
Published: October 2023

Writing the social and economic history of the British Isles over the seventeenth century presents the historian with the formidable task of controlling and disciplining a mass of material which encompasses a sometimes bewilderingly diverse repertoire of experiences. This was, in the social and economic spheres, a century of change, and sometimes of very marked change, for the British Isles. Yet this process of socio-economic transition would have looked very different from the viewpoint of a Norfolk yeoman farmer, a Bristol merchant, an Edinburgh lawyer, a highland crofter, a Manx fisherman, or a Connacht cottar, while the womenfolk and children of such men would also have brought their distinctive perspectives to bear.
Governors, governance, and governed: British politics since 1945
Authors: Turner John
Published: October 2023

The political history of Britain in the second half of the twentieth century divides conveniently into five phases. From 1945 to 1951 the country was largely preoccupied witli post-war recovery under Clement Attlee’s Labour governments. The social and political consequences of affluence dominated the 1950s under the Conservatives. By the early 1960s confidence had begun to ebb, and from then until 1973 governments of both parties tried to modernize the country.
The edge of the world: the imperial frontier and beyond
Authors: Breeze David J
Published: October 2023

Caesar in 55 BC received a longer triumph for his foray into Britain than for his conquest of Gaul. Standing on the Channel coast in AD 43, the army of the Emperor Claudius mutinied at the order to cross the ocean. In the fourth century, after the accumulation of over three centuries of detailed knowledge, Roman writers still treated the land beyond Hadrian’s Wall as if it were a mystical country inhabited by strange and exotic peoples. This is particularly disturbing, for all our written sources are Roman (or Greek) in origin and are not balanced by any observations from the indigenous inhabitants of Britain. Even the only reference to the locals (‘Brittunculi’) in the most important new material discovered in the last thirty years, the Vindolanda writing tablets, is open to interpretation.
The British Isles 1901-1951
Authors: Robbins Keith
Published: October 2023

The 'British Isles' entered the twentieth century as a single state 'Great Britain and Ireland' with a 'British Empire' greater in extent and larger in population than the world had ever seen. The first fifty years saw vast change. This volume presents a very different country in 1951 from what it had been in 1901. The chapters by different authors focus on politics, economics, society, wars, and foreign policy to emphasize the interconnectedness of all these developments. These clearly written expositions reflect on 'the British Way and Purpose' from different perspectives.
Introduction: Halfway House— Isles and Empire over half a century
Authors: Robbins Keith
Published: October 2023

Historians are always uneasy about the ‘periods’ with which they conventionally work. Why choose one set of dates rather than another to begin and end a particular book? It has often seemed convenient to take a century as a reasonable period within which to consider the development of one country. And, while such a practice remains common, some historians kick against the constraints which they feel are imposed by the mere passage of a century or half a century. They seek to escape from what they regard as arbitrary periodization dictated by the calendar and instead define their periods by allegedly more meaningful considerations and characteristics. For this reason, some ‘centuries’ have a habit of becoming ‘long’ centuries which extend forwards or backwards. Such ‘long’ centuries are then begun or ended by a specific event or events, cataclysmic or otherwise.
Reason, Science and the Domination of Matter
Authors: Lloyd Genevieve
Published: October 2023

In a striking passage in The Second Sex, Simone de Beauvoir suggested that ‘male activity’, in prevailing over the ‘confused forces of life: has subdued both Nature and woman.1 The association between Nature and woman to which de Beauvoir here alludes has a long history in the self-definitions of Western culture. Nietzsche, with characteristic overstatement, suggested in a fragment on ‘The Greek woman’ that woman’s closeness to Nature makes her play to the State the role that sleep plays for man.
A Science of Mars or of Venus?
Authors: Tiles Mary
Published: October 2023

For as long as there has been anything worthy of the name of science, there have been those who have criticized its claim to superior knowledge. With the birth and prodigious growth of modern science, the corresponding growth of critical opinion led, in the eighteenth century, to a divorce of the sciences from the humanities around which our educational institutions, and our universities in particular, have been built. It is this divorce which renders prob-lematic the status of the social or human sciences. For the extent to which man can be an object of scientific knowledge will be questioned by those insisting on an opposition between human knowledge and values as embodied in the humanities, and the dehumanized objective knowledge proclaimed within the natural sciences.
The Inviolable Woman: Feminist Conceptions of Citizenship in Australia, 1900-1945
Authors: Lake Marilyn
Published: October 2023

The meaning of citizenship is currently attracting renewed attention around the world. At the same time that people are identifying new democratic possibilities in a revitalized citizenship, however, feminists have been pointing both to the masculinist terms in which citizenship has been conceptualized and to women’s effective exclusion, in practice, from the basic citizen’s right of self government in Western democracies. These theoretical and practical issues are, of course, related. The assumed autonomy of the citizen, for example, rested on the understanding that someone else was responsible for domestic work and the maintenance of every day life. To participate fully as active citizens in public life, women have had to emulate men’s condition of freedom from private constraints and domestic responsibilities. Comparatively few have been willing and able to do so, and one result is that women every where are dramatically under-represented in political institutions. Both the discourse and practice of citizenship, feminist scholars have concluded, are profoundly gendered activities.
HQ: Culture at the ‘Big House’
Authors: Young Malcolm
Published: October 2023

I have written elsewhere (Young 1991a) about the ethical dilemmas of carrying out an observing participation on your own ‘tribe’ after living with it unthinkingly for over two decades. Here I felt less constrained, however, for I was not required to re-examine my own earlier practices to quite the same extent. Furthermore, having moved in from outside, I was made aware I was an ‘import’ who might be accepted, but only after I had served a very long apprenticeship.
Rural Practice and Project Research
Authors: Young Malcolm
Published: October 2023

In police society there is a paramount need to appear busy, with the result that the occurrence sheet or incident log begins to assume enormous significance. In this situation every event can become infused with importance, however trivial. Work tends to follow Parkinson’s law and expands to fill the time available. Inevitably this means even a minor incident in some hamlet perhaps twenty miles or more from a city such as Worcester or Hereford can become a major event. It was therefore perhaps not surprising to find there was little support in the rural world for practices which had operated for years in the city forces, where minor crimes were recorded and then more or less ignored. In the urban forces there had been a practical recognition and acceptance of the considerable body of research that shows such crimes are generally opportunist events and are not easily detected.
Condition Black—Negative
Authors: Young Malcolm
Published: October 2023

Although police accountability has been on the political agenda for perhaps two decades now, and in that time there has been a well-documented decline in the public deference and respect for the institu1ions of authority, the rural force seemed somewhat immune. And even as it followed trends in ‘modern management’, set up consultative committees, and rushed to gain MRA qualifications to meet demands for an effective and business-like prowess, all our attempts to transform the culture met with only limited success; for as a contemporary in research and corporate planning put it, ‘all we ever really do is tease the edges of the fabric of the beast’.
Culture
Authors: Marks Susan , Clapham Andrew
Published: October 2023

Writing in 1983, Raymond Williams declared ‘culture’ one of the two or three most complicated words in the English language. Since then, the concept of culture has been through further vicissitudes—’culture wars’, identity politics, and resurgent ethnonationalism, to name just a few.To some people working in the social sciences and humanities, the point has been reached where this term has become more trouble than it is worth. To them, culture is best avoided, or even entirely dropped from our vocabularies of social description and analysis.
Privacy
Authors: Marks Susan , Clapham Andrew
Published: October 2023

If privacy is today regarded as a social good, to be defended and protected, this was not always so. The English word ‘privacy’ comes from the Latin privare (to deprive), and in its earliest sense meant something along the lines of ‘privation’. A ‘private’ person was someone deprived of official position or rank, or a member of a closed religious order similarly (albeit voluntarily) disengaged from public life. In the army, of course, a private is still an ordinary soldier who lacks the rank of an officer, and (in some usages) is not a public recruit.
Religion
Authors: Marks Susan , Clapham Andrew
Published: October 2023

If for Karl Marx religion was the pacifying ‘opium of the people’, today it is more commonly denounced for the opposite tendency. Religion, we hear, mobilises people to extravagant, intemperate and violent action; it stirs them to kill, maim, terrorise, tyrannise, self-harm. Insofar as religion is indeed linked to action of this sort, it seems hardly congenial to the promotion of human rights. Yet the promotion of human rights is precisely an enterprise in which religious conviction has always played an important part. Religious organisations helped to launch the human rights movement, and remain to this day some of the most engaged and effective actors within it.
The Procedure of the Courts
Authors: Brown L Neville , Bell John S , Galabert Jean-Michel
Published: October 2023

The procedure before the French administrative courts is quite unlike any court procedure in England and differs also from that before the civil courts in France. This is principally because it shares the characteristic of French criminal procedure in being ‘inquisitorial’ rather than adopting the ‘accusatorial’ method of the English criminal process or the ‘adversary’ procedure of our civil trial. In other words, the court takes upon itself the task of finding out the facts, not being content to decide the case on the facts as established by the parties. Indeed, the court will also pursue an independent investigation of the law, again not being content or constrained (as in England) to rely upon the investigations and arguments of counsel.
The Influence of droit administratif Outside France
Authors: Brown L Neville , Bell John S , Galabert Jean-Michel
Published: October 2023

The most outstanding contribution made by France to legal science has undoubtedly been the Civil Code of 1804, but almost as important has been the separate system of administrative jurisdiction and administrative law created by the Conseil d’Etat during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. Most European countries follow the French practice of the double jurisdiction; even Belgium, which was strongly opposed to the French example in its constitution of 1831, has since established a separate Conseil d’Etat. The Netherlands, Luxembourg, Italy, Spain, Portugal, and Greece1 all have separate administrative courts administering principles of administrative law not far removed from those of the droit administratif. In this chapter, therefore, it is proposed briefly to outline the systems in the European Communities, namely, Belgium, the Netherlands, Italy, Germany, and Greece, and then to discuss what may well in time become the most important French export of all, the procedure and law of the Court of Justice of the European Communities at Luxembourg, the title retained by the Court even after the Maastricht Treaty (1992) adopted the label ‘European Union’ in place of ‘European Communities’.
Conclusions
Authors: Brown L Neville , Bell John S , Galabert Jean-Michel
Published: October 2023

The task of administrative judges has been described by Rivero as that of ‘submitting the totality of French public life to an ethic whose content it defines without any written text’.1 In other words, judges set standards of good government. As President Odent suggested,2 their ability to perform such a role depends on a close connection between the administration’s judges and the administration itself: the interpenetration of administrative and judicial functions is a good thing. If administrative judges were isolated from the active administration, if they ceased to be in constant contact with the needs and constraints of administrative life, they would lose their specific character.
Lagrange’s Method
Authors: Dixit Avinash K
Published: October 2023

Let us begin the development of the general theory of optimization subject to constraints, using a setting very close to the consumer choice model of Chapter 1. Suppose the choice variables are x and x. I shall write them more compactly as a vector x arranged in a column, Initially, I shall use vectors only to abbreviate lists of components; actual operations with vectors and matrices will appear gradually.
Dynamic Programming
Authors: Dixit Avinash K
Published: October 2023

In Chapter 10 we studied optimization over time. The constraints (10.1) expressing increments to stocks or state variables, and the additively separable form (10.3) of the objective function, were special features that enabled us to express the first-order conditions in a useful special form, namely as the Maximum Principle. Dynamic Programming is an alternative way of solving the same problem. It proves especially useful when time and uncertainty appear together, as they so often do in reality. Let us begin with time to keep the exposition simple, and introduce uncertainty later.

subject to the constraints
Seasonal Adjustment and Relations between Variables
Authors: Wallis* Kenneth F
Published: October 2023

This article studies the effect of official seasonal adjustment procedures on the relations between variables. By considering time-invariant linear filters, and in particular a linear approximation to the Census Method II adjustment program, the effect of adjusting one or both of the variables in a distributed lag relation is examined, and the distortions which can arise are described. Applying the actual (nonlinear) adjustment procedure to artificial data indicates that at least for the particular x-series used, the results of the linear filter analysis provide a good guide to the behaviour of estimates obtained from data adjusted by the official method.
A Study Toward a Dynamic Theory of Seasonality for Economic Time Series
Authors: Ghysels* Eric
Published: October 2023

Several economists, notably Plosser (1978), Sargent (1978), and Wallis (1978) refuted the assumption that the seasonal component of endogenous variables in a dynamic economic model has almost all of its power restricted to what is termed seasonal frequency and its harmonics. In this article, a model with a closed-form solution is formulated to provide more insight into the arguments put forward by economists. It is concluded that univariate seasonal adjustment cannot be considered a harmless simplification of data without loss of information, neither for the interpretation of economic time series nor for regression analysis. Key words: Unobserved component models; Dynamic economic models.
Seasonal Adjustment and Kalman Filtering: Extension to Periodic Variances
Authors: Burridge Peter , Wallis Kenneth F
Published: October 2023

Abstract. This paper reviews the relations between the methods of seasonal adjustment used by official statistical agencies and the ‘model-based’ methods that postulate explicit stochastic models for the unobserved components of a time series and applying optimal signal extraction theory to obtain a seasonal adjusted series. The Kalman filter implementation of the model-based methods is described and some recent results on its properties are reviewed. The model-based methods employ homogeneous or time-invariant models that as sume in particular that the autocovariance structure does not vary with the season. Relaxing this leads to the class of models known as periodic models, and an example of a seasonally heteroscedastic unobserved-components ARIMA (SHUCARIMA) model is presented. The calculation of the standard error of a seasonally adjusted series via the Kalman filter is extended to this periodic model and illustrated for a monthly rainfall series.

Key words: Seasonal adjustment; signal extraction; Kalman filter; periodic models; seasonally heteroscedastic unobserved-components autoregressive integrated-moving average; (SHUCARIMA) models.
Basic Concepts
Authors: Granger Clive W J , Teräsvirta Timo
Published: October 2023

It seems to be generally accepted that the economy is nonlinear, in that major economic variables have nonlinear relationships. Economic theorists suggest models with floors and ceilings, buffer stocks, and switching regimes. Investment functions, production functions, and Phillips’ curves are usually specified in nonlinear forms. Given any particular nonlinear model, with known specification but unknown parameters, econometricians can suggest ways of estimating these parameters and produce some asymptotic properties of these estimators (see, for instance, Judge et al. 1985 and White 1984). However, most economic theories only suggest plausible nonlinear specifications, usually are incomplete, and often do not agree with actual data, particularly in the dynamic structure.
Particular Nonlinear Multivariate Models
Authors: Granger Clive W J , Teräsvirta Timo
Published: October 2023

This chapter reviews several specific nonlinear models that are useful in practical analysis. The models are fairly obvious generalizations of well-known univariate models, such as autoregressive, moving average, and bilinear models. Some specific nonlinear autoregressive models are likely to be the most practical: these are all concerned with modelling the mean or conditional expectation or a series. The final section discusses simple models for conditional variance.
Testing Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in U.K. Money Demand Data
Authors: Johansen Søren
Published: October 2023

This paper discusses autoregressive models allowing for processes integrated of order 2, and the various types of cointegration that can occur. A statistical analysis of such models that allows for the determination of the order of integration and the cointegrating ranks is outlined. The notion of weak exogeneity is discussed for 1(1) processes. The results are illustrated by the U.K. money data of Hendry and Ericsson (1991).
Testing for Parameter Instability in Linear Models
Authors: Hansen Bruce e.
Published: October 2023

Simple tests for parameter instability are presented and discussed. These tests have locally optimal power and do not require a priori knowledge of “the breakpoint”. Two empirical examples are presented to illustrate the use of the tests. The first examines whether an AR(1) model for annual U.S. output growth rates has remained stable over 1889-1987. The second examines the stability of an error correction model for an aggregate life cycle model of consumption.
Financial Economics
Authors: Eichberger Jürgen , Harper Ian R
Published: October 2023

Financial Economics is an exciting new field of study that integrates the theory of finance and financial institutions into the main body of economic theory. In doing so, it draws on insights from general equilibrium analysis, information economics, and the theory of contracts. Financial Economics is a self-contained and comprehensive introduction to the field for advanced undergraduate and post-graduate economists and finance specialists. It develops the main ideas in finance theory, including the CAPM, arbitrage pricing, option pricing, and the Modigliani-Miller theorem within an economic framework. Students of economics are shown how finance theory derives from foundations in economic theory, while students of finance are given a firmer appreciation of the economic logic underlying their favourite results. Financial Economics provides all of the technical apparatus necessary to read the modern literature in financial economics and the economics of financial institutions. The book is self-contained in that the reader is guided through branches of the theory, as necessary, in order to understand the main topics. Numerous examples and diagrams illustrate the key arguments, and the main chapters are followed by guides to the relevant literature and exercises for students.
Decision-Making Under Uncertainty
Authors: Eichberger Jürgen , Harper Ian R
Published: October 2023

This first chapter covers the basic theoretical framework for choice under conditions of uncertainty. We begin with a formal characterization of uncertainty and develop two ways of looking at choice under uncertainty: (i) as a choice amongst state dependent outcomes; and (ii) as a choice amongst different probability distributions over outcomes. We then explain how the expected utility representation of preferences can be interpreted as a utility function over state-dependent outcomes (the ‘state-preference approach ‘) or as a utility function over probability distributions. Following a discussion of attitudes to risk and stochastic dominance, we introduce a special application of expected utility theory commonly encountered in financial economics, viz. mean-variance analysis. Two appendices provide a brief collection of results on probability distributions and a short exposition of the axiomatic derivation of the expected utility representation.
Arbitrage and Option Pricing
Authors: Eichberger Jürgen , Harper Ian R
Published: October 2023

This chapter deals with two fundamental insights about the relationship among asset returns. First, an asset may have state-contingent pay-offs that can also be obtained by forming an appropriate portfolio of other assets. Indeed, if markets are complete, then the state-contingent returns of any additional asset can be synthesized by a port folio of the existing assets. Since perfect substitutes must command the same price, the price of any asset must equal the price of a portfolio that replicates its returns.
Debt Contracts and Credit Rationing
Authors: Eichberger Jürgen , Harper Ian R
Published: October 2023

In previous chapters, we maintained the assumptions that all decision-makers in an economy can specify, agree on, and eventually verify states of the world, and that decision-makers know each other ‘s preferences and beliefs. Given these assumptions, anonymous trade of state-contingent contracts in competitive markets is conceptually feasible, as we have seen in Chapters 2 to 5. In this chapter, we abandon these simplifying assumptions. First, we will drop the assumption that all decision-makers have complete and identical information about each other ‘s characteristics. In the context of an insurance market, asymmetric information about some players ‘ risk characteristics may lead to a breakdown of the market on account of adverse selection. We show how other in stitutional arrangements, e.g. specific forms of financial contracts, may help to over come this problem.
Regulation of Banks
Authors: Eichberger Jürgen , Harper Ian R
Published: October 2023

Chapter 7 suggested that transformation of liquidity is a bank ‘s main role in a modern economy. Taking deposits on call and investing them, at least partially, in long term illiquid assets entails the risk of bank runs. Because of the intrinsic risk these institutions face, regulation has been part of the institutional framework from the earliest days of banking. In this chapter, we study the effectiveness of different regulatory measures and the capacity of these instruments to achieve their objectives.
Concepts in Time Series Analysis
Authors: Franses Philip Hans
Published: October 2023

This chapter surveys some concepts for univariate and multivariate time series processes which are relevant for the material to be discussed in subsequent chapters of this book. For convenience, I postpone a discussion of seasonal time series to the next chapter. Examples of relevant concepts are stationarity, the autocorrelation function. unit roots, and several diagnostic measures to investigate the empirical adequacy of fitted models. The material does not pro vide a detailed analysis of all possible concepts, although I sometimes provide details of computational aspects. For detailed theoretical accounts.
Seasonal Integration and Cointegration
Authors: Franses Philip Hans
Published: October 2023

This chapter reviews recent developments in formally testing whether this double filter or the A4 filter are useful transformations in practice. If a A4 differencing filter is required, a time series is said to be seasonally integrated. Since differencing filters assume the presence of one or more seasonal or nonseasonal unit roots, most methods to test for an appropriate differencing filter are based on statistical tests for such unit roots. These tests are all extensions of the univariate Dickey-Fuller tests discussed in Chapter 2. In the first section of this chapter I discuss testing for unit roots in univariate seasonal time series with an explicit focus on seasonal unit roots. This is be cause such roots are typically found for time series with changing seasonal pat terns. The tests will be illustrated for the four sample time series that were discussed in Chapter 3, as well as for seven new sample series. These new series all concern data for the UK: GDP, total consumption, consumption of non durables, exports, imports, public investment and the work-force, where the first six variables are all in real terms.
Periodic Autoregressive Time Series Models
Authors: Franses Philip Hans
Published: October 2023

In this chapter I consider periodic autoregressive models for univariate and multivariate time series processes. A periodic autoregression (PAR) extends a nonperiodic AR model by allowing the autoregressive parameters to vary with the seasons. In other words, the PAR model assumes that the observations in each of the seasons can be described using a different model. Such a property may be useful to describe some economic time series, since in several economic situations one may expect that economic agents behave differently in different seasons. This may lead to a belief that the memory structure (which can be reflected by autoregressive components) can vary with the season. For ex ample, technological advances throughout the years have now made it possible to buy certain vegetables in almost all seasons, whereas these products were available in, say, only the summer season several years ago; hence one may observe an increasing trend in the consumption of these vegetables in one or more seasons and no trend in the summer season (see e.g. the graphs in Kuiper, et al. 1993). As another example, some recent tax measures which became effective in the first part of the year may lead to seasonal variation in inflation: as a result, economic agents may come increasingly to anticipate this inflation peak. Yet another example is that. as a result of increasing personal disposable income and increasing leisure time in developed countries, consumer spending on holidays has changed over the years. Gersovitz and MacKinnon (1978), Osborn(] 988), and Todd (1990) give more concrete economic examples which concern seasonally varying utility functions and optimization schemes.
Periodic Cointegration
Authors: Franses Philip Hans
Published: October 2023

This chapter deals with empirical periodic models for multivariate time series with one or more stochastic trends. In the previous two chapters we have seen that for univariate variables periodic time series models are most easily analysed in the vector of quarters (VQ) form. This amounts to investigating the properties of a quarterly observed time series y1via an analysis of the properties of the (4 x 1) vector process YT ‘ which contains the observations in each of the quarters. As noted in Section 7.5, the analysis of the stationarity property of a periodic VAR (PVAR) model can be quite involved, even for the simple PVAR(l) model (see equation (7.51) ). In this chapter I propose two reasonably simple alternative approaches to analysing a multivariate time series using a periodic model.
Conclusion
Authors: Franses Philip Hans
Published: October 2023

In this book I have considered the class of periodic time series models with stochastic trends to describe and forecast seasonally observed time series. I have argued that this class is particularly useful for several macroeconomic time series since such models can describe variables for which (i) seasonal patterns change slowly over time, (ii) seasonality is a dominant source of variation in a time series, and (iii) the seasonal fluctuations depend on the business cycle and stochastic trend fluctuations. In Chapter 3 I showed that properties (i) and (ii) are apparent for several example series. In the next chapter I reviewed commonly used seasonal adjustment methods. In Chapter 5 I reviewed recent developments in nonperiodic models with nonseasonal and seasonal unit roots. Seasonal adjustment methods and seasonal unit root models share the property that it is assumed that seasonal and nonseasonal movements can be meaningfully separated. In Chapter 6, however, I used several examples to conjecture that for some macroeconomic variables it may be difficult, if not impossible, to separate seasonal from nonseasonal movements. This led me to propose the class of periodic models with stochastic trends, which can take ac count of the various documented empirical regularities.
Generalized Method of Moments
Authors: Hall Alastair R
Published: October 2023

Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) has become one of the main statistical tools for the analysis of economic and financial data. This book is the first to provide an intuitive introduction to the method combined with a unified treatment of GMM statistical theory and a survey of recent important developments in the field. Providing a comprehensive treatment of GMM estimation and inference, it is designed as a resource for both the theory and practice of GMM: it discusses and proves formally all the main statistical results, and illustrates all inference techniques using empirical examples in macroeconomics and finance. Building from the instrumental variables estimator in static linear models, it presents the asymptotic statistical theory of GMM in nonlinear dynamic models. Within this framework it covers classical results on estimation and inference techniques, such as the overidentifying restrictions test and tests of structural stability, and reviews the finite sample performance of these inference methods. And it discusses in detail recent developments on covariance matrix estimation, the impact of model misspecification, moment selection, the use of the bootstrap, and weak instrument asymptotics.
Asymptotic Theory and Finite Sample Behaviour
Authors: Hall Alastair R
Published: October 2023

Since finite sample distribution theory is intractable for nonlinear dynamic models, this question has been addressed in this context via computer based simulation studies calibrated to match models of particular interest. These studies form the main focus of this chapter and are reviewed in Section 6.3. However, we precede our review of these simulation estimator. However, there are some circumstances in which there is no eﬀect, and so the additional moment conditions are said to be redundant. This scenario turns out to be pertinent
The Vector Autoregressive Model
Authors: Hansen Peter Reinhard , Johansen Søren
Published: October 2023

In Chapter 2 of SJ the basic facts about the vector autoregressive model with unrestricted parameters are given, and the asymptotics of the statistical theory is given in the stationary case. The p-dimensional process Xt considered throughout the book is generated by the autoregressive equations where X-k+i, ... , X0, are fixed initial values and thee are i.i.d. Np(O, n). The deterministic terms Dt contain constants, linear terms or seasonal dummies.
The Statistical Analysis of I (1) Models
Authors: Hansen Peter Reinhard , Johansen Søren
Published: October 2023

It is shown here that the derivation of test statistics and estimators from the Gaussian likelihood function leads to the technique of reduced rank regression and the analysis of eigenvalues and eigenvectors, as developed by Anderson (1951). Theorem 6.1 contains the main results on the calculation of estimators and likelihood ratio tests in terms of the eigenvectors in certain matrices. Briefly the technique is the following. The error correction model is a non-linear regression model and we first eliminate the linearly.