bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Updated sea ice code and atmospheric forcing improve the Antarctic summer sea ice of an ocean model
Authors: Äijälä Cecilia , Nie Yafei , Gutierrez-Loza Lucia , De Falco Chiara , Lauvset Siv Kari , Cheng Bin , Uotila Petteri
Published: March 2024

The ocean and sea ice play an important role in the Antarctic climate system, and the atmosphere plays an important role in forcing the sea ice and the ocean. A better understanding of these interactions is needed to understand recent changes and anticipate future changes in the Antarctic. ​We present a regional ocean model MetROMS-UHel for a quarter-degree resolution domain of the Antarctic Ocean. MetROMS-UHel is based on the MetROMS-Iceshelf model that uses ROMS (Regional Ocean Modeling System), with ocean-ice shelf thermodynamics. For the sea ice, MetROMS-Iceshelf uses CICE (Community Ice CodE) 5.1.2., while MetROMS-UHel has been updated to CICE 6.3.1. We run both models with two different atmospheric forcings, ERA-Interim (ECMWF Re-Analysis ERA-Interim from 1992 to 2018) and ERA5 (ECMWF Reanalysis v5 from 1992 to 2023). The atmospheric reanalysis plays an important role in the results, and this way we see which changes are due to the updated sea-ice model and which are from the updated atmospheric forcing.The models simulate the interannual variability of the Antarctic sea ice extent reasonably well. The sea ice extent is similar for all model runs and close to observed in all seasons except JFM. In JFM the extent varies between the models especially in the Ross and Weddell Seas, with the largest, and closest to observed extent produced by the MetROMS-UHel CICE 6, ERA5 run. Important watermasses are well represented by the models, with cold waters being slightly fresher in the MetROMS-UHel runs.
The formation and development of nebkhas based on chronology and sedimentology in the Ordos Plateau, northern China
Authors: Du Yue , Lu Ruijie , Ma Luo , Chen Dongxue , Liu Yingna
Published: March 2024

The Ordos Plateau lies on the northwest margin of the East Asian monsoon region as well as the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China, with a wide distribution of nebkhas. The formation and development of nebkhas in this region are closely related to natural envi ronmental conditions and human activities. However, the processes of nebkhas formation and development under natural and anthropogenic influence still remain unclear. In this study, four typical nebkhas in the Ordos Plateau were selected after detailed field investigations. Chronology and sedimentary features of the formation and development of nebkhas were studied based on optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating, lithology, grain size, etc. The results demonstrated that modern nebkhas had formed since at least ~0.59 ka in the southwest of the Ordos Plateau, followed by the middle region, at least ~0.34 ka, and later in the south and north regions, at least ~0.10 ka. There were thin layers of weakly-developed paleosols at ~0.32-0.25 ka, peaks in the silt and fine sand content and lower deposition rates, about 0.37-0.46 cm/a, indicating a relatively humid climate and weak aeolian activities. After ~0.10 ka, aeolian activities intensified and the nebkhas widely developed with a higher deposition rate, ~0.45-5.21 cm/a. Nebkhas in the study region developed primarily over paleo-channels or paleosol layers. Very fine sand and fine sand were dominant composition on grain size of nebkha sediments; saltation was a main means for the particle movements, indicating near-source accumulation for nebkha sediments. In recent decades, local farmers are used to adding nebkhas deposits to the soil of irrigation areas to improve the soil quality and alleviate soil salinization. Such agricultural activities, together with land reclamation, have accelerated the demise of the nebkhas in the Ordos Plateau.
Progressive rock failure under different loading conditions – sound and vision
Authors: Main Ian , Mangriotis Maria-Daphne , Cartwright-Taylor Alexis , Curtis Andrew , Butler Ian , Bell Andrew , Fusseis Florian
Published: March 2024

Catastrophic failure is the end result of a progression of damage towards brittle failure on a variety of system scales in the Earth. However, the factors controlling this evolution, and the relationship between deformation and the resulting earthquake hazard, are not well constrained.  In particular, induced seismicity is a growing cause of concern in the engineering required for the net-zero carbon transition, including subsurface storage of carbon and geothermal energy production, and mining for critical metals. Here we address the question of how to optimize operational controls to minimize induced micro-seismicity in a ‘scale-model’ laboratory experiment where we can simultaneously image the underlying damage using acoustic emissions (sound) and x-rays (vision). We confirm that using continuous servo-control to maintain a constant acoustic emission event rate slows down deformation compared to standard constant strain rate loading, and demonstrate that it also suppresses micro-seismic events of all sizes, including extreme events, and reduces the proportion of seismic to total strain. We develop a new model to explain these observations, based on the observed evolution of microstructural damage and the fracture mechanics of subcritical crack growth.  The model is validated with high precision (r~99%) by comparison with the independently-observed stress history and acoustic emission statistics.Qualitative inspection of comparable grey-scale x-ray volumes between the two experiments (peak stress and post-failure after unloading) showed that at peak stress microcrack damage accumulated initially, in both samples and in the same area of each sample, as localised pore collapse, pore-emanating and Hertzian tensile intra- and trans-granular cracks and pore-emanating shear and tensile inter-granular cracks. These features were mostly similar in length and aperture, although the sample loaded only under constant strain rate showed a few longer and more open cracks. Strain localisation was apparent at the same stage in both samples, but there was some evidence of earlier en-echelon microcrack localisation in the sample loaded under a constant strain rate. Post-failure, microcracks were longer and more open in the sample loaded under a constant strain rate than in the sample loaded under a constant AE event rate. The visible proportion of damaged rock was greater, with a broader shear zone around two to three grains wide (compared with
Unraveling the resilience of micro-dams on Austrian potato fields during intense rainfall 
Authors: Konzett Matthias , Strauss Peter , Schmaltz Elmar
Published: March 2024

Potatoes are especially susceptible to erosion when grown on long and sloped fields due to late seed development and the unique structure of their seedbed. Previous research has shown that micro-dams can effectively reduce surface runoff and sediment yield while also increasing soil water content. One way to further improve micro-dams is to cover them with a greening crop, such as oat or wheat. During intense precipitation events, micro-dams may break and lose their protective effects, whereas micro-dams with cover crops are more sustainable and stay intact. Therefore, this study aims to analyze the resilience of both micro-dams and micro-dams with cover crops on selected fields and all Austrian potato fields in 2022 to intense rainfall events.Between 2019 and 2022, seven potato fields with both micro-dams and covered micro-dams were surveyed using UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) to collect elevation data. This data was used to create digital elevation models (DEM), which were then utilized to evaluate the state of each micro-dam on the field, i.e., whether it was intact, damaged, broken, or undefinable, as well as to calculate topographic parameters, such as slope and LS-Factor, for each micro-dam's position. After a specific precipitation event, the state of each micro-dam was compared with its respective slope and LS-Factor. The obtained data was subsequently applied to all Austrian potato fields of 2022 to assess the potential of micro-dams and micro-dams with cover crops to withstand intense precipitation events and their potential effectiveness.The first results indicate that there is a distinct difference in slope and LS-Factor between stable and broken micro-dams, regardless of whether they are covered with a greening crop or not. The median slope of all broken micro-dams, whether covered or uncovered, is 8.4%, while stable micro-dams are situated at a median slope of 6%. A similar ratio can be observed in the LS-Factor, with a median of 1.75 for broken micro-dams and 1.15 for stable micro-dams. There are differences between uncovered and covered micro-dams regarding their slope or LS-Factor in all possible states for micro-dams, yet these differences are small and not significant. The application of the data to all potato fields in Austria in 2022 is still ongoing.
Spatial Isotopic Analysis of Airborne CO2: Insights from Etna Volcano and Madonie Mountains, Italy, Surveys
Authors: Gurrieri Sergio , Di Martino Roberto M.R.
Published: March 2024

Climate change is intricately linked to the carbon cycle. Both phenomena are examined across various temporal and spatial scales to clarify the processes of carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the Earth's surface in response to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, primarily CO2. Anthropogenic CO2 emissions emerge as the main driver of global warming, while natural CO2 emissions into the atmosphere constitutes approximately 1% of annual CO2 emissions, mainly resulting from volcanic activity.This study relies on datasets gathered during surveys at Etna volcano and the Madonie mountains, Italy, to identify spatial variations in stable isotope composition and the concentration of airborne CO2. The dataset was collected along a path specifically designed from the urban areas of Catania and Cefalù, both in Italy, to high altitudes (i.e., ~2200 m a.s.l.) at Mount Etna and the Madonie mountains, Italy, respectively. This dataset facilitates exploration of spatial variations in the sources of atmospheric CO2 and patterns in the isotopic composition and concentration of airborne CO2 with altitude.The study's findings indicate that the primary sources of airborne CO2 exhibit a biogenic isotopic carbon signature at Etna and the Madonie mountains, although a more 13C-enriched CO2 source influences the isotopic signature of airborne CO2 at Mount Etna. The concentration of airborne CO2 and the carbon isotopic signature remain independent of altitude. However, a high correlation between altitude and oxygen isotopic signature suggests that variations in hydrology significantly impact the airborne CO2.Furthermore, the study underscores the complex relationship between environmental variables and airborne CO2 concentration, indicating that the pattern in airborne CO2 cannot be comprehensively investigated solely through concentration analysis due to the high background CO2 concentration compared to relative spatial variations. Additionally, the carbon isotopic signature of CO2 enables the differentiation of multiple sources of CO2 at Mount Etna and the distinction of 13C-enriched volcanic CO2 from background air at low airborne CO2 concentrations.
Dynamics of permafrost thaw in Western Siberia - a 200 years multi-proxy and high-resolution reconstruction from Khanymei peatlands
Authors: Halaś Agnieszka , Lamentowicz Mariusz , Obremska Milena , Łuców Dominika , Słowiński Michał
Published: March 2024

Western Siberian peatlands are one of the biggest peatland complexes in the world. Despite playing an essential role in regulating global climate, these ecosystems still remain understudied. A lack of long-term multi-proxy studies comprehensively examining the dynamics between permafrost thaw and peatland ecosystems in Siberia makes it difficult to determine how these areas will be affected by future climate change. Our research covers the history of the Khanymei peatlands (63°43’N, 75°57’E), located in the discontinuous permafrost zone in the last 200 years (from the end of the Little Ice Age to modern times). In this study, we applied multi-proxy analysis (testate amoebae, plant macrofossil, pollen, micro and macro charcoal, LOI and XRF) on two cores from a transect between a peat mound and a thermokarst lake. A newly developed by Halaś et al. (2023) testate amoebae calibration data set based on samples from the Khanymei peatlands complex was used to reconstruct past changes in peatland hydrology. In the last 200 years, we observed constant drying of studied peatlands with events of wetting caused by thawing permafrost. Reconstructed changes in peatland vegetation indicate that lichens (genus Cladonia) dominate during stable permafrost phases. We discovered that peatland drying in recent decades caused the expansion of shrubs onto Khanymei peatlands, which is also widely observed in other parts of Arctic tundra. The increase in peatland moisture after thawing is noted only in the initial period and in a limited area. Thawing led to high Sphagnum growth and change in the structure of testate amoebae communities, with an increase of mixotrophic species like Placocista spinosa. Species with organic and idiosomic tests started to dominate in the community replacing species with agglutinated shells. We discovered that permafrost thawing resulted in a short-term increase of peat accumulation and carbon sequestration, increased abundance of fungal communities, and promotion of oxic conditions. Initially, positive effects of thawing (like carbon accumulation) quickly weakened as favorable moisture conditions disappeared. As permafrost continues to thaw, these processes will occur on an increasingly larger scale. According to climate change predictions, this region in Western Siberia may become unsuitable for the functioning of permafrost peatlands in their current form.References:Halaś, A., Lamentowicz, M., Łuców, D., & Słowiński, M. (2023). Developing a new testate amoeba hydrological transfer function for permafrost peatlands of NW Siberia. Quaternary Science Reviews, 308, 108067. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2023.108067The study was supported by the National Science Center (Grant no. 2019/35/O/ST10/0290 and 2021/41/B/ST10/00060) and INTERACT No. 730938.
High-resolution magnetic and gravimetric map of the South of Salamanca (Spain): tectonic insights and implications on Sn-W mineralization
Authors: DeFelipe Irene , Santamaría Barragán Alberto , Pérez-Cáceres Irene , Ayarza Puy , Palomeras Imma , Yenes Mariano , Gómez Barreiro Juan , Prieto Raúl , Rivero-Montero Mercedes , Sánchez-Sánchez Yolanda
Published: March 2024

Within the Iberian Peninsula and specifically in the Iberian Massif (the westernmost outcrop of the Variscan orogen in Europe), several aeromagnetic anomalies stand out, and many of them are related to late-Variscan gneiss domes. However, some of them are not fully understood because: 1) they are not clearly linked to extensional structures and/or gneiss domes, 2) they are not related with the outcropping rocks, and/or 3) the aeromagnetic map does not provide enough resolution to relate them with the local geology. For example, the Salamanca Magnetic Anomaly (SAMA), in the central-western part of Spain, is a conspicuous reverse polarity magnetic anomaly that features a maximum amplitude of 56.1 nT. However, it does not show any relationship with the magnetic properties of outcropping rocks. In this regard, preliminary studies show that the outcropping Ordovician Slates present randomly reverse polarity Natural Remanent Magnetization which is compatible with that of the SAMA but with very low intensity. Therefore, we have undertaken a large magnetic survey of this anomaly and its continuation to the south. Gravity has also been measured in an effort to constrain the source of the SAMA. The study area, which extends to the south of the city of Salamanca is affected by the Alba-Villoria NE-SW oriented Alpine fault that puts into contact Neoproterozoic and Paleozoic rocks of the Iberian Massif with Cenozoic sedimentary rocks. In addition, the Variscan Salamanca Detachment Zone, a late-Variscan extensional structure allowed deep rocks and crustal melt products to reach shallow crustal levels, probably easing Sn-W mineralization in the area. Our new Bouguer and magnetic anomaly data depict the Alba-Villoria Fault and show a straightforward correlation between gravity and magnetic maxima. Although the magnetic maxima could be the potential field response of dense and magnetic slates common in the area, the ones measured do not present high magnetic susceptibility. Accordingly, this new data might indicate that late-Variscan extension triggered the intrusion of dense and magnetic basic rocks in a process that could have contributed to Sn-W mineralization.Acknowledgements: We thank the funding provided by the Junta de Castilla y León and Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (SA084P20), the Fundación Memoria de D. Samuel Solórzano Barruso grant (FS3-2021), Grant PID2020-117332GB-C21 (MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033) and TED2021-130440B-I00 (MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033) and EU NextGenerationEU/PRTR. IDF received support from the Ayuda para la recualificación de sistema universitario español 2021-2023 and MRM from the Programa Margarita Sala, Ministerio de Universidades and UCM (CT18/22).
Temporal Record of Plume-Ridge Interaction in the North Atlantic: Interdisciplinary Insights from IODP Expedition 395C
Authors: Pearman Callum , White Nicky , Maclennan John , Tien Chia-Yu ,   IODP Expedition 395 science party
Published: March 2024

The Icelandic mantle plume is regarded as one of the most significant mantle upwellings on Earth, however the dynamics of its interaction with the surrounding asthenosphere and mid-oceanic ridge systems in the North Atlantic are poorly understood. The clearest manifestation of this plume-ridge interaction are the Reykjanes V-shaped ridges and V-shaped troughs (VSRs and VSTs) that straddle the Reykjanes Ridge axis south of Iceland. These time-transgressive linear features are particularly well exposed by short-wavelength gravity data and are thought to represent the progressive sampling of thermal asthenospheric pulses that horizontally advect away from the Icelandic mantle plume conduit. The Reykjanes Ridge therefore acts as a ‘window-sampler’ into the temporal and spatial dynamics of plume outflow. International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 395C drilled into two VSR and VST pairs along a plate-spreading flow line approximately 600 km south of Iceland in summer 2021. Over 400 m of basalt was recovered, which represents a magmatic record over 15 Ma of plate spreading at a fixed distance from the mantle plume conduit. We present Nd isotopic analysis of recovered whole-rock that reveals a linear isotopic evolution from ƐNd of 7.5 to 10.5 over 14 Ma (n = 50), which implies that the ‘plume-like’ enriched component of the mantle source has been progressively diluted by mixing with depleted upper mantle material. This evolution occurred synchronously with the entire timeframe of VSR formation as defined by free-air gravity anomalies, and a long-wavelength increase in crustal thickness implied by wide-angle seismic experiments. It is therefore apparent that the dynamics of plume-ridge interaction are directly interlinked with changes in magmatism, structural tectonics and crustal production. Furthermore, major and trace elements of both whole-rock and glass samples have been measured, by multiple analytical techniques, revealing distinct compositions between and within boreholes. These observations can be understood in terms of temporal changes in the depth and degree of melting. In summary, petrological, petrophysical and geochemical analysis of this rock core in conjunction with consideration and modelling of wide-angle seismic surveys, gravity and bathymetric data can be used to develop a quantitative understanding of the dynamics of plume-ridge interaction, test hypotheses for the formation of VSRs, and constrain the temporal evolution of the North Atlantic mantle domain.
The critical precipitation threshold for the Amazon forest biomass in the LPJmL vegetation model
Authors: Nian Da , Bathiany Sebastian , Sakschewski Boris , Drüke Markus , Blaschke Lana , Ben-Yami Maya , von Bloh Werner , Boers Niklas
Published: March 2024

The Amazon rainforest, one of the most important biomes in the world, and recognized as a potential tipping element in the Earth system, has received increasing attention in recent years. Theory and observations suggest that regional climate change from greenhouse gas emissions and deforestation may push the remaining forest toward a catastrophic tipping point.Despite the urgency to assess the future fate of the Amazon, it remains unclear if state-of-the-art Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) can capture the highly nonlinear dynamics underlying such potentially abrupt dynamics and there is a noticeable scarcity of DGVM evaluations regarding their potential to predict forthcoming tipping points.In our manuscript, we systematically investigate how the Amazon forest responds in idealized scenarios where precipitation is linearly decreased and subsequently increased between current levels and zero, using the state-of-the-art model LPJmL. We investigate whether large-scale abrupt changes and tipping points occur, and whether early warning signals as expected from theory can be detected. Our results indicate a pronounced nonlinearity but reversible behavior between vegetation aboveground biomass (AGB) and mean annual precipitation (MAP) in the LPJmL simulations. In particular, there exists a threshold at a critical rainfall level below which there is a rapid decrease in forest biomass. The value of the threshold is determined by seasonality, evapotranspiration and the adaptive capacity of roots. Significant "early warning signs" can be detected before the transition.
SHADECast: Enhancing solar energy integration through probabilistic regional forecasts
Authors: Carpentieri Alberto , Folini Doris , Leinonen Jussi , Meyer Angela
Published: March 2024

Surface solar irradiance (SSI) is a pivotal component in addressing climate change. As an abundant and non-fossil energy source, it is harnessed through photovoltaic (PV) energy production. As the contribution of PV to total energy production grows, the stability of the power grid faces challenges due to the volatile nature of solar energy, predominantly influenced by stochastic cloud dynamics. To address this challenge, there is a need for accurate, uncertainty-aware, near real-time, and regional-scale SSI forecasts with forecast horizons ranging from minutes to a few hours.Existing state-of-the-art SSI nowcasting methods only partially meet these requirements. In our study, we introduce SHADECast [1], a deep generative diffusion model designed for probabilistic nowcasting of cloudiness fields. SHADECast is uniquely structured, incorporating deterministic aspects of cloud evolution to guide the probabilistic ensemble forecast, relying only on previous satellite images. Our model showcases significant advancements in forecast quality, reliability, and accuracy across various weather scenarios.Through comprehensive evaluations, SHADECast demonstrates superior performance, surpassing the state of the art by 15% in the continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) over diverse regions up to 512 km × 512 km, extending the state-of-the-art forecast horizon by 30 minutes. The conditioning of ensemble generation on deterministic forecasts further enhances reliability and performance by more than 7% on CRPS.SHADECast forecasts equip grid operators and energy traders with essential insights for informed decision-making, thereby guaranteeing grid stability and facilitating the smooth integration of regionally distributed PV energy sources. Our research contributes to the advancement of sustainable energy practices and underscores the significance of accurate probabilistic nowcasting for effective solar power grid management. References[1] Carpentieri A. et al., 2023, Extending intraday solar forecast horizons with deep generative models. Preprint at ArXiv. https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.11966 
Towards global maps of vegetation trait change - the VESTA project
Authors: Dantas de Paula Mateus , Hickler Thomas
Published: March 2024

Exploring the intricate interplay between global biodiversity patterns and the looming impact of climate change stands as a paramount inquiry within the realm of earth system science. Furthermore, the acknowledgment of shifts in plant functional diversity emerges as a key catalyst, wielding substantial influence over pivotal ecosystem processes like the carbon cycle. Various essential plant traits, intricately tied to vegetation function—ranging from photosynthesis to carbon storage and water/nutrient uptake—underscore the significance of comprehensive global trait maps. These maps prove indispensable for unraveling environmental interactions, identifying threats to the biosphere, and fostering a profound understanding of our planet's intricacies. However, the sparse and non-representative nature of current trait observations poses a formidable challenge. Presently, global maps of vegetation traits are constructed by bridging observational gaps, primarily relying on empirical or statistical relationships between trait observations, climate and soil data, and remote sensing information. However, these approaches exhibit limited explanatory power, struggle to encompass a myriad of traits, and face constraints in ensuring ecological consistency in their extrapolations.The VESTA (Vegetation Spatialization of Traits Algorithm) project emerges as a groundbreaking initiative aimed at refining our grasp on global above and belowground plant traits. This endeavor involves integrating a trait-based dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) with Earth observation (EO) data. Trait-based DGVMs, rooted in a process-based foundation, forge a direct nexus between the environment, plant ecology, and emerging vegetation patterns. Leveraging insights from contemporary global trait databases, the model is initialized to mirror real-world conditions. Subsequently, EO data enters the equation to fine-tune the model through a calibration process, adjusting trait relationship curves having as reference satellite measurements of vegetation structure and productivity.Drawing parallels to prior methods used in climate reanalysis, EO-constrained trait-based DGVMs yield a multivariate, spatially comprehensive, and coherent record of global vegetation traits. The resultant dataset encapsulates trait distributions, offering detailed insights into plant functional diversity metrics—mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis—at specific locations. Notably, these trait maps extend beyond mere snapshots, evolving into a temporal series that affords a nuanced comprehension of the prevailing state of functional diversity and its temporal shifts. Ultimately, the fruition of this project manifests as an invaluable EO product, showcasing leaf, wood, and root traits and their change through time.
Groundwater, armed conflict, and land surface uplift: an InSAR analysis of the Orontes River Basin
Authors: Mhanna Saeed , Halloran Landon , Brunner Philip
Published: March 2024

Armed conflicts have a pronounced impact on the environment, leading to changes in land use/land cover (LULC) and water resources. The Orontes River Basin (ORB), which covers parts of Lebanon, Syria, and Turkey, represents a unique case study.  After a prolonged period of intensive groundwater abstraction in the ORB, the Syrian War has led to cropland abandonment in certain areas, whereas continued intensive agriculture persisted in others. Groundwater levels are expected to have recovered due to conflict-related LULC changes and, consequentially, reduced irrigation demands. However, direct observation of this recovery is impeded due the near-complete lack of traditional hydrological or hydrogeological data in the Syrian portion of the ORB.Just as overexploitation of groundwater can result in land subsidence, groundwater recovery may manifest itself as land surface uplift, given suitable poro-elastic properties of the subsurface hydrogeological units. In order to infer regional groundwater dynamics across the ORB, we use interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) to detect land uplift and subsidence. Our results show complex transient, non-uniform trends in subsidence/uplift due to conflict-induced changes to LULC and groundwater exploitation across the ORB. The results of this study can be used for optimizing humanitarian aid and as model inputs for future hydrological models in areas where in-situ measurements are almost non-existent. 
Future Greenland melt in coupled ice sheet-climate CESM simulations: feedbacks, thresholds, reversibility
Authors: Vizcaino Miren , Feenstra Thirza , Petrini Michele , Sellevold Raymond , Sotiria Georgiou , Thayer-Calder Katherine , Lipscomb William , Rudlang Julia
Published: March 2024

Estimates of future Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) melt are mostly based on regional climate modelling for a fixed GrIS topography or on ice sheet modelling with forcing from climate models. This prevents the modelling of climate and GrIS feedbacks and other types of interaction. Here we examine a set of multi-century simulations with the Community Earth System Model featuring an interactive GrIS to explore future relationship between global climate change and ice sheet change. To this end, we compare a set of coupled CESM-CISM 1% CO2 increase simulations until stabilization at two, two and a half, three and four times pre-industrial CO2 levels to examine the sensitivity of the GrIS to emission mitigation. Here we find a large role of ocean circulation weakening and associated regional climate changes on GrIS melt for moderate emission scenarios and large melt differences between the three times and four times CO2 stabilization scenarios. In addition, we examine the role of feedbacks on ice sheet evolution by comparing a 1% to 4xCO2 coupled simulation with a simulation where the GrIS topography and meltwater fluxes to the ocean are prescribed as pre-industrial. Finally, we explore the effects on GrIS melt rates of a fast 5% CO2 reduction from four times to pre-industrial levels, with a focus on restoration of high latitude climate, GrIS albedo, surface energy fluxes and refreezing capacity.  
Investigating forest management's impact on local climate in Fennoscandia through statistical and dynamical modeling
Authors: Huang Bo , Li Yan , Zhang Xia , Tan Chunping , Hu Xiangping , Cherubini Francesco
Published: March 2024

The forest plays a crucial role in the land ecosystem, impacting local climates through various biophysical mechanisms. While numerous observational and modeling studies have explored the distinctions between forested and non-forested areas, the impact of forest management on surface temperature has been relatively understudied. This limited attention is attributed to the inherent challenges associated with adapting climate models to effectively account for the complexities of forest structure parameters. Employing a combination of machine learning-based statistical analysis and a regional climate model, along with high-resolution maps detailing various forest compositions and structures, we explore the connection between specific forest management strategies and local temperature variations. The findings reveal a tendency for more developed forests to contribute to higher land surface temperatures compared to younger or less developed ones. Relative to the present state of Fennoscandian forests, an ideal scenario with fully developed forests is found to an annual mean warming of 0.26 ℃ in statistical models, with a range of 0.03 to 0.69 ℃ (5th to 95th percentile). However, the dynamical model indicates an annual average cooling effect of -0.25 °C, ranging from -0.42 to -0.10 °C (5th to 95th percentiles), attributing this difference to the dynamical model's inability to accurately simulate winter warming. Both models project a cooling effect in summer, with statistical and dynamical models showing -0.03 ± 0.22 ℃ and -0.53 ± 0.20 ℃, respectively. Conversely, scenarios involving undeveloped forests result in an annual average cooling of -0.29 ℃ in statistical models, with a range of -0.61 to -0.01 ℃, a slight summer warming of 0.03 ± 0.16 ℃, and a winter cooling of -0.69 ± 0.47 ℃. The dynamical model, however, predicts an annual average warming of 0.28 ± 0.18 °C, a summer warming of 0.53 ± 0.15 °C (mainly driven by increased sensible heat fluxes), and a winter cooling of -0.29 ± 0.25 °C. This study deepens our understanding of how alterations in vegetation impact climate patterns. While our findings shed light on the intricate connections between forest composition and surface temperatures, there's a clear need to refine how regional climate models capture the intricate biophysical mechanisms within forest dynamics. Enhancements in this representation will be crucial for establishing a comprehensive understanding of how forest management practices specifically influence local climate regulation services.
Carbon dioxide removal: trade-offs and lags in large perturbed parameter simulations
Authors: Jeltsch-Thömmes Aurich , Tran Giang , Lienert Sebastian , Keller David , Oschlies Andreas , Joos Fortunat
Published: March 2024

Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is now widely discussed for offsetting residual greenhouse gas emissions or even reversing climate change. For example, all emissions scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that meet the “well below 2°C” warming target of the Paris Agreement include CDR. Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) may be one possible CDR where the carbon uptake of the ocean is increased by artificial alkalinity addition. Here, we apply the Bern3D-LPX and the UVic Earth system models of intermediate complexity in observationally-constrained large perturbed parameter ensembles to investigate the effect of massive OAE on modelled carbon reservoirs and fluxes. OAE is assumed to be technically successful and deployed as an additional CDR in the SSP5-3.4 temperature overshoot scenario. 

Trade-offs involving feedbacks with atmospheric CO2 result in a low efficiency of an alkalinity-driven atmospheric CO2 reduction of -0.35 [-0.37 – -0.33] mol C per mol alkalinity addition (skill-weighted mean and 68% c.i.). The alkalinity-driven ocean carbon uptake is partly offset by the release of carbon from the land biosphere and a reduced ocean carbon sink in response to lowered atmospheric CO2 under OAE. We further apply the Bern3D-LPX ensemble in idealized simulations, in which ΔSAT increases first to ~2°C and then declines to ~1.5°C, to investigate lags in surface air temperature change (ΔSAT). In these simulations, ΔSAT lags the decline in CO2-forcing by decades, depending on the equilibrium climate sensitivity of the respective ensemble member. Finally, we use the Bern3D-LPX ensemble simulations and the, in comparison to earlier studies with the Bern3D-LPX model, updated and longer observational records to assess climate metrics such as the transient climate response to emissions, the transient climate response, and the equilibrium climate sensitivity. 

Our results suggest that massive OAE, if technically and socio-economically achievable, might be able to lower atmospheric CO2 but considering the trade-offs and lags, not emitting carbon is preferable. 
Exacerbation of Ozone Pollution by Anthropogenic Monoterpenes
Authors: Ma Xuefei , Wang Haichao , Tan Zhaofeng , Wang Hongli , Lu Keding , Zhang Yuanhang
Published: March 2024

Monoterpenes exert a critical influence on air quality and climate change by impacting fine particle formation. This study provides field evidence indicating that monoterpene oxidations significantly bolster local ozone production in eastern China, with the observed monoterpene likely originating from biomass burning rather than biogenic emissions. Nighttime correlation with CO and consistent ratios align with values from biomass burning experiments. Experimental determination of fast monoterpene oxidations, through direct radical measurements, reveals a daily ozone enhancement of 4-18 ppb, constituting 6-16% of total ozone production, depending on monoterpene speciation. This underscores the substantial contribution of previously overlooked anthropogenic monoterpenes to O3 production in eastern China, with potential relevance in areas worldwide characterized by massive emissions, particularly those with high NOx levels. The findings emphasize the need to consider anthropogenic monoterpenes in coordinated efforts to mitigate O3 and particulate matter pollution.
Evaluation of precipitation product characteristics over Germany for hydrologic model forecasts
Authors: Hammoudeh Suad , Goergen Klaus , Belleflamme Alexandre , Kollet Stefan
Published: March 2024

As a primary component of the Earth’s hydrological cycle, precipitation plays a central role in many environmental processes and human activities. The availability of reliable precipitation data is essential for many sectors and applications, such as water resources management, flood and drought risk analysis, or hydrological modeling. In this study, we evaluate the characteristics of different precipitation datasets based on distinct methodologies and sources. This is in the context of high-resolution hindcasts and prototypical daily forecasts with the integrated hydrological model ParFlow over a central European model domain, where precipitation is a first order driver as part of the atmospheric forcing. Our objective is to determine, how closely precipitation from the ECMWF HRES numerical weather prediction matches in-situ observations, and how HRES compares to other precipitation products, some of which might be suitable for a bias adjustment of the hydrological model inputs. The European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D) in-situ daily precipitation observation dataset of 5072 stations in our ParFlow model domain serves as the reference. The time span of the comparison is from 2014 to 2022. Aside from ECMWF HRES, the evaluation includes at present data at different spatio-temporal resolutions: The ERA5 reanalysis as a background dataset, the HYRAS interpolated hydrometeorological raster data from the German Weather Service (DWD), the meteorological radar data product OPERA, a European composite dataset from EUMETNET, and the radar data product RADOLAN from DWD. Due to the spatial coverage of some datasets, the analysis is restricted to Germany constituting a subset of the hydrological model domain. The initial part of this evaluation uses only daily data, and precipitation products are compared at station locations. The spatial distribution and temporal variability is assessed with annual and seasonal sums, mean errors, and spatial correlation coefficients. Precipitation intensity is analyzed through the spatial distribution of the typical climate indices. The temporal characteristics of precipitation is determined through the precipitation fraction, i.e., the number of moderately wet days (75th percentile), very wet days (95th percentile), and consecutive wet days. Perkin's skill score is used for the comparison of the empirical distributions. While preliminary results indicate that HRES agrees well with the observational reference data, some form of bias adjustment may still be necessary.
About the marbles of the Dizi series (Greater Caucasus): geochemical features, the nature of the protolith, and paleoecological conditions of their formation
Authors: Javakhishvili Irakli , Tsutsunava Tamara , Beridze Giorgi
Published: March 2024

The Dizi series formed on the southern passive margin of a small oceanic basin on the Southern Slope of the Greater Caucasus and is exposed in the structural zone of the same name. The series is composed of metaterrigenous phyllite-like and volcanogenic rocks of the Devonian-Triassic age; marbles also are quite widespread in the series. During the Variscan orogeny, all rocks of the series underwent low-temperature regional metamorphism; later, in the Middle Jurassic time, intensive contact metamorphism took place. The object of presented research is marble, found in the rocks of the series both in the form of lenses and blocks. Interest in the study of marbles spread in the Dizi series is caused by several factors, namely, there is still no consensus on the position of marbles in the series, their detailed geochemical study has not been carried out, and the conditions of their formation have not been determined. There is an opinion that the Dizi series represents part of the Triassic Upper Karakaya complex, which was probably deposited in the forearc of the southern margin of Laurasia. The marbles are included in the series as exotic blocks of shallow marine Carboniferous and Permian limestone, most likely formed in Gondwana. During the study of the Dizi series marbles petrographic and geochemical research methods were applied. Petrographic characteristics of the marbles from all outcrops show a similar mineral composition, and structure and texture as well. The authors analyzed the main components, RE, and REE of the Dizi series marbles. The ratios Ca VS Mg, Mg/Ca VS SiO2, and Sr VS Mg/Ca show that the protolith of the marbles was pure limestone. The reconstruction   of the deposition conditions of the marble protolith, based on the concentrations of Sr, Rb, and Ba, indicates the formation of limestones in the conditions of the continental margin. The Ce-negative anomaly observed in the marble samples is possibly due to the existence of an oxygenated marine environment, probably of shallow water conditions. These conditions fully correspond to the tectonic interpretation of geochemical data from other metasedimentary rocks of the series. The results of the presented studies confirm that the marbles under consideration were formed in situ, together with the other rocks of the Dizi series in the conditions of the continental slope and its foot on the southern passive margin of a small oceanic basin of the Southern Slope of the Greater Caucasus.
Rasch Model-Based Zone Delineation for Olive Orchard Management.
Authors: Rebollo Castillo Francisco Javier , Moral García Francisco Jesús , Rebollo Moyano Lourdes , Aguirado Montero Cristina , Honorio Guisado Fulgencio , García Martín Abelardo , Paniagua Simón Luis Lorenzo
Published: March 2024

Delineation of management zones in an olive orchard located in Badajoz, southwestern Spain was performed using the Rasch model. The objective was to obtain objective measures of production potential based on nine soil properties: soil apparent electrical conductivity, clay, sand, and silt content, organic matter, total nitrogen, available phosphorus and potassium, and cation exchange capacity. A total of 40 locations in the field were assessed, and the model integrated the soil properties to rank the locations according to their soil production potential. The influence of each individual soil property on the production potential was also determined. Any anomalies in the soil samples or properties were highlighted, providing information for site-specific treatments and enhancing cost-effectiveness and sustainability in field management. Geostatistical algorithms were employed to estimate and map soil production potential, enabling the delineation of management zones in the field based on a rational basis.Keywords: predictive map, probabilistic model, soil production, Extremadura, olive tree.
Pressure dependence of permeability in cracked rocks: experimental evidence of non-linear pore-pressure gradients from local measurements
Authors: lin gang , Chapman Samuel , Garagash Dmitry , Fortin Jérôme , Schubnel Alexandre
Published: March 2024

Understanding the coupling between rock permeability, pore-pressure and fluid-flow is crucial, as fluids play an important role in the Earth’s crustal dynamics. Here, we measured the distribution of fluid pressure during fluid-flow experiments on two typical crustal lithologies, a granite and a basalt. Our results demonstrate that the pore-pressure distribution transitions from a linear to a non-linear profile as the imposed pore-pressure gradient is increased (from 2.5 MPa to 60 MPa) across the specimen. This non-linearity results from the effective pressure dependence of permeability, for which two analytical formulations were considered: an empirical exponential or a modified power-law. In both cases, the non-linearity of pore pressure distribution is well predicted. However, using a compilation of permeability vs. effective pressure data for granitic and basaltic rocks, we show that our power-law model, based on crack micromechanics (combining Hertzian contact and cubic law theories), outperforms the exponential formulation at low effective pressures. 
Recent past and future climate change over the TRIQUETRA cultural heritage sites and related damage risk
Authors: Georgoulias Aristeidis K. , Akritidis Dimitris , Tringa Efstathia , Feidas Haralambos , Zanis Prodromos
Published: March 2024

Within the framework of TRIQUETRA (Toolbox for assessing and mitigating Climate Change risks and natural hazards threatening cultural heritage; https://triquetra-project.eu/) research project, meteorological data from weather stations (observations) as well as simulations from regional climate models (RCMs) have been analyzed to assess recent past and future climate change over eight cultural heritage (CH) sites in six countries. From South to North the CH sites are Choirokoitia in Cyprus, Aegina, Epidaurus, and Kalapodi in Greece, Ventotene in Italy, Les Argilliez in Switzerland, Roseninsel in Germany, and Smuszewo in Poland. The observations were acquired from weather stations (from various networks) with long meteorological records at the proximity of the examined CH sites, while the RCM data come from the EURO-CORDEX. More specifically, 11 sets of high resolution (~12.5 km) RCM simulations were analyzed, covering the historical period 1950-2005 and the future period 2006-2100 under three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), namely the RCP2.6 (strong greenhouse gas mitigation), RCP4.5 (medium mitigation), and RCP8.5 (no further mitigation). The climate analysis over the recent-past period 1970-2020 revealed a robust warming and increasing of heat stress at the materials of the CH assets. Furthermore, the multi-model climate analysis based on the RCM simulations for the three different future scenarios points towards a hotter and drier future climate for the CH sites at the South and a hotter and wetter climate for the CH sites in the North. Analysis of the Heritage Outdoor Microclimate Risk (HMRout) and Predicted Risk of Damage (PRD) indices over the recent past period indicates notable variations in microclimate conditions with aggravation of heat stress at CH assets made of stone and marble, pointing towards an increase in predicted risk of damage. Analyzing the future changes in HMRout and PRD indices based on the multi-model ensembles of RCM simulations for the three different future scenarios will provide a more comprehensive understanding of how the resilience of materials and the overall preservation of stone and marble CH sites may be affected.This work is based on procedures and tasks implemented within the project “Toolbox for assessing and mitigating Climate Change risks and natural hazards threatening cultural heritage - TRIQUETRA”, which is a Project funded by the EU HE research and innovation programme under GA No. 101094818.