bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Planning of technical flood retention measures in large river basins under consideration of imprecise probabilities of multivariate hydrological loads
Authors: Nijssen D. , Schumann A. , Pahlow M. , Klein B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. As a result of the severe floods in Europe at the turn of the millennium, the ongoing shift from safety oriented flood control towards flood risk management was accelerated. With regard to technical flood control measures it became evident that the effectiveness of flood control measures depends on many different factors, which cannot be considered with single events used as design floods for planning. The multivariate characteristics of the hydrological loads have to be considered to evaluate complex flood control measures. The effectiveness of spatially distributed flood control systems differs for varying flood events. Event-based characteristics such as the spatial distribution of precipitation, the shape and volume of the resulting flood waves or the interactions of flood waves with the technical elements, e.g. reservoirs and flood polders, result in varying efficiency of these systems. Considering these aspects a flood control system should be evaluated with a broad range of hydrological loads to get a realistic assessment of its performance under different conditions. The consideration of this variety in flood control planning design was one particular aim of this study. Hydrological loads were described by multiple criteria. A statistical characterization of these criteria is difficult, since the data base is often not sufficient to analyze the variety of possible events. Hydrological simulations were used to solve this problem. Here a deterministic-stochastic flood generator was developed and applied to produce a large quantity of flood events which can be used as scenarios of possible hydrological loads. However, these simulations imply many uncertainties. The results will be biased by the basic assumptions of the modeling tools. In flood control planning probabilities are applied to characterize uncertainties. The probabilities of the simulated flood scenarios differ from probabilities which would be derived from long time series. With regard to these known unknowns the bias of the simulations was considered by imprecise probabilities. Probabilities, derived from measured flood data were combined with probabilities which were estimated from long simulated series. To consider imprecise probabilities, fuzzy sets were used to distinguish the results between more or less possible design floods. The need for such a differentiated view on the performance of flood protection systems is demonstrated by a case study.
Characteristics of the summit lakes of Ambae volcano and their potential for generating lahars
Authors: Bani P. , Join J.-L. , Cronin S. J. , Lardy M. , Rouet I. , Garaebiti E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Volcanic eruptions through crater lakes often generate lahars, causing loss of life and property. On Ambae volcano, recent eruptive activities have rather tended to reduce the water volume in the crater lake (Lake Voui), in turn, reducing the chances for outburst floods. Lake Voui occupies a central position in the summit caldera and is well enclosed by the caldera relief. Eruptions with significantly higher magnitude than that of 1995 and 2005 are required for an outburst. A more probable scenario for lahar events is the overflow from Lake Manaro Lakua bounded on the eastern side by the caldera wall. Morphology and bathymetry analysis have been used to identify the weakest point of the caldera rim from which water from Lake Manaro Lakua may overflow to initiate lahars. The 1916 disaster described on south-east Ambae was possibly triggered by such an outburst from Lake Manaro Lakua. Taking into account the current level of Lake Manaro Lakua well below a critical overflow point, and the apparently low potential of Lake Voui eruptions to trigger lahars, the Ambae summit lakes may not be directly responsible for numerous lahar deposits identified around the Island.
Assessing uncertainties in flood forecasts for decision making: prototype of an operational flood management system integrating ensemble predictions
Authors: Dietrich J. , Schumann A. H. , Redetzky M. , Walther J. , Denhard M. , Wang Y. , Pfützner B. , Büttner U.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Ensemble forecasts aim at framing the uncertainties of the potential future development of the hydro-meteorological situation. A probabilistic evaluation can be used to communicate forecast uncertainty to decision makers. Here an operational system for ensemble based flood forecasting is presented, which combines forecasts from the European COSMO-LEPS, SRNWP-PEPS and COSMO-DE prediction systems. A multi-model lagged average super-ensemble is generated by recombining members from different runs of these meteorological forecast systems. A subset of the super-ensemble is selected based on a priori model weights, which are obtained from ensemble calibration. Flood forecasts are simulated by the conceptual rainfall-runoff-model ArcEGMO. Parameter uncertainty of the model is represented by a parameter ensemble, which is a priori generated from a comprehensive uncertainty analysis during model calibration. The use of a computationally efficient hydrological model within a flood management system allows us to compute the hydro-meteorological model chain for all members of the sub-ensemble. The model chain is not re-computed before new ensemble forecasts are available, but the probabilistic assessment of the output is updated when new information from deterministic short range forecasts or from assimilation of measured data becomes available. For hydraulic modelling, with the desired result of a probabilistic inundation map with high spatial resolution, a replacement model can help to overcome computational limitations. A prototype of the developed framework has been applied for a case study in the Mulde river basin. However these techniques, in particular the probabilistic assessment and the derivation of decision rules are still in their infancy. Further research is necessary and promising.
A pre seismic radio anomaly revealed in the area where the Abruzzo earthquake (M=6.3) occurred on 6 April 2009
Authors: Biagi P. F. , Castellana L. , Maggipinto T. , Loiacono D. , Schiavulli L. , Ligonzo T. , Fiore M. , Suciu E. , Ermini A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. On 6 April 2009 a strong (Mw=6.3) earthquake occurred in the Abruzzo region (central Italy). Since 1996, the intensity of CLT (f=189 kHz, Sicily, Italy), MCO (f=216 kHz, France) and CZE (f=270 kHz, Czech Republic) broadcast signals has been collected with a ten minutes sampling rate by a receiver operating in a place located about 13 km far from the epicenter. During March 2009, the old receiver was substituted with a new one able to measure, with one minute sampling rate, the intensity of five VLF signals and five LF signals radiated by transmitters located in different zones of Europe. The MCO and CZE transmitters mentioned above are included among them. From 31 March to 1 April the intensity of the MCO radio signal dropped and this drop was observed only in this signal. The possibility that the drop was connected to problems in the transmitter or in the receiver was investigated and excluded. So, the drop indicates a defocusing of the radiated signal. Since no particular meteorological situation along the path transmitter-receiver happened, the defocusing must be related to other causes, and a possibility is presented that it is a precursor of the Abruzzo earthquake.
A methodological approach to characterise Landslide Periods based on historical series of rainfall and landslide damage
Authors: Petrucci O. , Pasqua A. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Landslide Periods (LPs) are defined as periods, shorter than a hydrological year, during which one or more landslide damage events occur in one or more sectors of a study area. In this work, we present a methodological approach, based on the comparative analysis of historical series of landslide damage and daily rainfall data, aiming to characterise the main types of LPs affecting selected areas. Cumulative rainfall preceding landslide activation is assessed for short (1, 2, 3, and 5 days), medium (7, 10, and 30 days) and long (60, 90, and 180 days) durations, and their Return Periods (RPs) are assessed and ranked into three classes (Class 1: RP=5-10 years; Class 2: RP=11-15; Class 3: RP>15 years). To assess landslide damage, the Simplified Damage Index (SDI) is introduced. This represents classified landslide losses and is obtained by multiplying the value of the damaged element and the percentage of damage affecting it. The comparison of the RP of rainfall and the SDI allows us to indentify the different types of LPs that affected the study area in the past and that could affect it again in the future. The results of this activity can be used for practical purposes to define scenarios and strategies for risk management, to suggest priorities in policy towards disaster mitigation and preparedness and to predispose defensive measures and civil protection plans ranked according to the types of LPs that must be managed. We present an application, performed for a 39-year series of rainfall/landslide damage data and concerning a study area located in NE Calabria (Italy); in this case study, we identify four main types of LPs, which are ranked according to damage severity.
A comparison of lightning data provided by ZEUS and LINET networks over Western Europe
Authors: Lagouvardos K. , Kotroni V. , Betz H.-D. , Schmidt K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the framework of this paper, one-year of lightning data from the experimental network ZEUS operated by the National Observatory of Athens is compared to collocated data provided by the LINET detection network. The area of comparison is limited to a part of Central-Western Europe, where LINET data exhibits the highest data quality, permitting thus to be used as the validation dataset. The location error of ZEUS was calculated to be ~6.8 km, while the detection efficiency was ~25%, with a characteristic under-detection during nighttime. Moreover, the analysis revealed that ZEUS is also capable to detect not only cloud-to-ground but also intra-cloud strokes. Analysis of a specific case study revealed that the spatial distribution of ZEUS was very close to that of LINET, although the total number of strokes as seen by ZEUS is much lower than the one from LINET. The overall analysis permitted to assess the main characteristics of ZEUS network, information considered of paramount importance before the use of ZEUS data for a variety of observational and modeling work.
Relationship between lightning and model simulated microphysical parameters over the central and eastern Mediterranean
Authors: Katsanos D. K. , Lagouvardos K. , Kotroni V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this study the relationship between lightning and simulated microphysical parameters of clouds, is examined. In order to investigate such a relationship, a number of cases with significant lightning activity that occurred during the wet period of the year over the central and eastern Mediterranean have been selected, based on the lightning activity reported by the ZEUS lighting detection network, operated by the National Observatory of Athens. For the same cases, simulations with the non-hydrostatic MM5 model were performed with the aim of reproducing the dynamical and microphysical parameters associated with the weather systems that produced lightning. The analysis showed that the temporal distribution of convective rainfall is not well correlated with that of lightning, while on the contrary, the temporal distribution of the simulated concentrations of solid hydrometeors correlates well with lightning and there is also a general coincidence of their maxima. Further, it was shown that the best correlation was found during the development stage of the storms, while during the decay phase the number of lightning decreases much faster that the simulated concentrations of solid hydrometeors.
Anomalies in VLF radio signals prior the Abruzzo earthquake (M=6.3) on 6 April 2009
Authors: Rozhnoi A. , Solovieva M. , Molchanov O. , Schwingenschuh K. , Boudjada M. , Biagi P. F. , Maggipinto T. , Castellana L. , Ermini A. , Hayakawa M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The VLF/LF radio signals method for studying preseimic activity is applied to the Abruzzo earthquake (M=6.3, 6 April 2009). The data collected by three receivers located in Moscow (Russia), Graz (Austria) and Bari (Italy) at about 3000 km, 1000 km and 500 km from the epicenter were used. The signals received from the Sardinia (20.27 kHz) and the Sicily (45.9 kHz) transmitters, both located in Italy, were compared with those received from the Iceland (37.5 kHz), the Great Britain (19.58 kHz) and the Germany (23.4 kHz) transmitters. The propagation paths of the two Italian transmitters cross the epicentral area (seismic paths) unlike the paths of the other three signals (control paths). Using two different analyses, that are the study of the night-time signal and the research of shifts in the evening terminator times, clear anomalies were revealed 2–8 days before the occurrence of the Abruzzo earthquake in the seismic paths, while no anomalies have been found in the control paths.
Cellular automaton modelling of lightning-induced and man made forest fires
Authors: Krenn R. , Hergarten S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The impact of forest fires on nature and civilisation is conflicting: on one hand, they play an irreplaceable role in the natural regeneration process, but on the other hand, they come within the major natural hazards in many regions. Their frequency-area distributions show power-law behaviour with scaling exponents α in a quite narrow range, relating wildfire research to the theoretical framework of self-organised criticality. Examples of self-organised critical behaviour can be found in computer simulations of simple cellular automaton models. The established self-organised critical Drossel-Schwabl forest fire model is one of the most widespread models in this context. Despite its qualitative agreement with event-size statistics from nature, its applicability is still questioned. Apart from general concerns that the Drossel-Schwabl model apparently oversimplifies the complex nature of forest dynamics, it significantly overestimates the frequency of large fires. We present a modification of the model rules that distinguishes between lightning-induced and man made forest fires and enables a systematic increase of the scaling exponent α by approximately 1/3. In addition, combined simulations using both the original and the modified model rules predict a dependence of the overall event-size distribution on the ratio of lightning induced and man made fires as well as a splitting of their partial distributions. Lightning is identified as the dominant mechanism in the regime of the largest fires. The results are confirmed by the analysis of the Canadian Large Fire Database and suggest that lightning-induced and man made forest fires cannot be treated separately in wildfire modelling, hazard assessment and forest management.
Quantifying changes of wind speed distributions in the historical record of Atlantic tropical cyclones
Authors: Chen K. , McAneney J. , Cheung K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Here we re-examine the official Atlantic basin tropical cyclone (hurricane) database HURDAT (1851–2008) and quantify differences between wind speed distributions in the early historical (1851–1943) record and more recent observations. Analyses were performed at three different geographical levels: for all six-hourly track segments of all Atlantic basin events, all segments of all events that crossed the US mainland, and US landfalling segments alone. At all three geographical levels of study, distributions of windspeeds over the last two, four and six decades display negligible dispersion or systematic change over time. On the other hand and relative to wind speed frequencies for subsequent years, the 1851–1943 record has a marked and statistically significant over-representation of wind speeds largely corresponding to Saffir-Simpson Categories 1 and 2 and under-representation of Categories 4 and 5 events; importantly, no single Category 5 event is recorded prior to 1924. The stability of the distribution of windspeeds at landfall over the last six decades, the dataset in which we can have most confidence, suggests that the differences in the earlier record are most likely explained by well-known measurement and observational deficiencies. Moreover by disaggregating the Power Dissipation Index (PDI), we demonstrate that the upward trend in Atlantic basin PDI since 1970s does not imply stronger and longer duration Category 5 windspeeds despite a warming climate. These results have implications for hurricane catastrophe loss modeling for the insurance industry and long-term trend analyses of the historical wind speed record, especially those related to the attribution of the role of Global Climate Change.
Potential of historical meteorological and hydrological data for the reconstruction of historical flood events – the example of the 1882 flood in southwest Germany
Authors: Seidel J. , Imbery F. , Dostal P. , Sudhaus D. , Bürger K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper presents a hydrometeorological reconstruction of the flood triggering meteorological situation and the simulation of discharges of the flood event of December 1882 in the Neckar catchment in Baden-Württemberg (southwest Germany). The course of the 1882 flood event in the Neckar catchment in southwest Germany and the weather conditions which led to this flood were reconstructed by evaluating the information from various historical sources. From these historical data, daily input data sets were derived for run-off modeling. For the determination of the precipitation pattern at the end of December 1882, the sparse historical data were modified by using a similar modern day precipitation pattern with a higher station density. The results of this run-off simulation are compared with contemporary historical data and also with 1-D hydraulic simulations using the HEC-RAS model.
Relation between integral effect of sub-surface temperature variation (I) and seismic effects
Authors: Jalal Kamali H. , Bidokhti A. A. , Amiri H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. There will be a change in the Earth's local sub-surface thermal structure before and/or after an earthquake. In this work we have introduced a new parameter (I) which relates integral effect of temperature variation and seismic activity. This parameter in its various forms integrates the temperature variations during one year before and after earthquake. Some recent earthquakes are chosen throughout Iran on Alps-Himalayas fault zone with magnitudes 4.5 and more. Subsurface temperatures up to one meter depth measured in nearby weather stations are used as there is no deeper data available. We found the new defined parameter (I) has a direct relation with earthquakes magnitude (M) and reverse relation with distance (d) between earthquake focus and station in which temperature is measured. Suitable formulas for these relations are suggested regarding the magnitude ranges and time period with respect to the earthquake time. There may be a way to use this new parameter as a quake precursor.
The main characteristics of atmospheric circulation associated with fog in Greece
Authors: Houssos E. E. , Lolis C. J. , Bartzokas A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The characteristics of the atmospheric circulation over Europe and the Mediterranean associated with the formation and the dissipation of fog in Greece are examined. The data used consists of: i) 3-hourly meteorological observations recorded at 16 meteorological stations in Greece and ii) daily (00:00 UTC) 2.5×2.5 grid point values of mean sea-level pressure, 500 hPa geopotential height, 850 hPa and 500 hPa air temperatures and 1000–500 hPa thickness over Europe for the period 1957–2002. 1055 fog events are extracted from the 3-hourly meteorological observations. A specific methodology scheme including S-mode Factor Analysis and k-means Cluster Analysis is applied to the grid point data sets for the first day of a fog event (D day), the day prior to D day (D-1 day) and the day that follows the last day of a fog event (END day) and the 1055 evolutions of the atmospheric circulation associated with fog events in Greece are classified into 10 clusters. The mean patterns of MSL Pressure, 850 hPa and 500 hPa air temperatures, 1000–500 hPa thickness and 500 hPa geopotential height show that in most of the clusters, the presence of anticyclonic conditions over the Balkans, a warm front passage, or a weak, humid southerly flow induced by the presence of a shallow depression over the western Mediterranean favor fog formation in Greece, while the dissipation of fog occurs when drier air masses are transferred over the Balkans. The main differences among the 10 clusters refer to the exact position, the intensity and the specific evolution of the surface and the upper air systems, the season of their predominance and the area of the Greek territory that mainly refer to.
An equivalent fluid/equivalent medium approach for the numerical simulation of coastal landslides propagation: theory and case studies
Authors: Mazzanti P. , Bozzano F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Coastal and subaqueous landslides can be very dangerous phenomena since they are characterised by the additional risk of induced tsunamis, unlike their completely-subaerial counterparts. Numerical modelling of landslides propagation is a key step in forecasting the consequences of landslides. In this paper, a novel approach named Equivalent Fluid/Equivalent Medium (EFEM) has been developed. It adapts common numerical models and software that were originally designed for subaerial landslides in order to simulate the propagation of combined subaerial-subaqueous and completely-subaqueous landslides. Drag and buoyancy forces, the loss of energy at the landslide-water impact and peculiar mechanisms like hydroplaning can be suitably simulated by this approach; furthermore, the change in properties of the landslide's mass, which is encountered at the transition from the subaerial to the submerged environment, can be taken into account. The approach has been tested by modelling two documented coastal landslides (a debris flow and a rock slide at Lake Albano) using the DAN-W code. The results, which were achieved from the back-analyses, demonstrate the efficacy of the approach to simulate the propagation of different types of coastal landslides.
Hazard index maps for woody material recruitment and transport in alpine catchments
Authors: Mazzorana B. , Zischg A. , Largiader A. , Hübl J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A robust and reliable risk assessment procedure for hydrologic hazards deserves particular attention to the role of transported woody material during flash floods or debris flows. At present, woody material transport phenomena are not systematically considered within the procedures for the elaboration of hazard maps. The consequence is a risk of losing prediction accuracy and of underestimating hazard impacts. Transported woody material frequently interferes with the sediment regulation capacity of open check dams and moreover, when obstruction phenomena at critical cross-sections of the stream occur, inundations can be triggered. The paper presents a procedure for the determination of the relative propensity of mountain streams to the entrainment and delivery of recruited woody material on the basis of empirical indicators. The procedure provided the basis for the elaboration of a hazard index map for all torrent catchments of the Autonomous Province of Bolzano/Bozen. The plausibility of the results has been thoroughly checked by a backward oriented analysis on natural hazard events, documented since 1998 at the Department of Hydraulic Engineering of the aforementioned Alpine Province. The procedure provides hints for the consideration of the effects, induced by woody material transport, during the elaboration of hazard zone maps.
Half-scale experimental study of rockfall impacts on sandy slopes
Authors: Labiouse V. , Heidenreich B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the framework of rockfall trajectory modelling, the bouncing phenomenon occurring when a rock block impacts with the slope surface is the most difficult to predict, owing to its complexity and its very limited understanding. To date, the rebound is commonly quantified by means of two coefficients of restitution estimated from a rough description of the ground material. To acquire a better knowledge of the bouncing phenomenon and to investigate the influence of various impact parameters, a comprehensive experimental study was undertaken at the LMR-EPFL (Rock Mechanics Laboratory – Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne). After a summary of the main conclusions drawn from a small-scale study, the paper focuses on half-scale experiments, describing first the testing device and the data processing and analysing then the influence of several impact parameters. It is observed that the rebound and the commonly-used coefficients of restitution expressed for the mass centre of the block depend not only on slope material characteristics, but also on factors related to the kinematics (slope inclination and impact velocity) and to the block (weight, size and shape). As many trajectory computer codes consider constant coefficients of restitution only function of the outcropping material, the trajectory results should be interpreted with caution and always checked against field observations.
Time-clustering behavior in the sequence of the aftershocks of the Al-Hoceima (Morocco) 24 February 2004 earthquake
Authors: Telesca L. , Rouai M. , Cherkaoui T. E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The time dynamics of the aftershock sequence of the Al-Hoceima (Morocco) earthquake of 24 February 2004 has been investigated. The sequence of the occurrence times of the events with threshold magnitude Mth≥3.2 is characterized by a time-clustering behavior, identified using different fractal methods (Fano Factor, Allan Factor, Count-based Periodogram), well suited to reveal scaling features in point processes. The obtained results not only show the presence of memory phenomena and correlation structures in the Al-Hoceima aftershocks, but also furnish quantitatively the estimate of the magnitude of such correlation by means of the estimate of the scaling exponent α.
RST analysis of MSG-SEVIRI TIR radiances at the time of the Abruzzo 6 April 2009 earthquake
Authors: Genzano N. , Aliano C. , Corrado R. , Filizzola C. , Lisi M. , Mazzeo G. , Paciello R. , Pergola N. , Tramutoli V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Space-time fluctuations of Earth's emitted Thermal Infrared (TIR) radiation have been observed from satellite months to weeks before earthquakes occurrence. The general RST approach has been proposed in order to discriminate normal (i.e. related to the change of natural factor and/or observation conditions) TIR signal fluctuations from anomalous signal transient possibly associated to earthquake occurrence. In this work RST approach is applied to the Abruzzo 6 April 2009 event (ML=5.8) by using for the first time MSG-SEVIRI (Meteosat Second Generation -Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager) thermal infrared observations. A validation/confutation analysis has been performed in order to verify the presence/absence of anomalous space-time TIR transients in the presence/absence of significant seismic activity. March–April 2009 has been analyzed for validation purposes. Relatively unperturbed periods (no earthquakes with ML≥5) have been taken for confutation. A specific TIR anomalies space-time persistence analysis as well as a cloud coverage distribution test have been introduced in order to eliminate artifacts and outliers both in the validation and confutation phases. Preliminary results show clear differences in TIR anomalies occurrence during the periods used for validation and confutation purposes. Quite clear TIR anomalies appear also to mark main tectonic lines related to the preparatory phases of others, low magnitude (ML~4) earthquakes, occurred in the area.
Integration of natural and technological risks in Lombardy, Italy
Authors: Lari S. , Frattini P. , Crosta G. B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Multi-risk assessment is becoming a valuable tool for land planning, emergency management and the deployment of mitigation strategies. Multi-risk maps combine all available information about hazard, vulnerability, and exposed values related to different dangerous phenomena, and provide a quantitative support to complex decision making. We analyse and integrate through an indicator-based approach nine major threats affecting the Lombardy Region (Northern Italy, 25 000 km2), namely landslide, avalanche, flood, wildfire, seismic, meteorological, industrial (technological) risks; road accidents, and work injuries. For each threat, we develop a set of indicators that express the physical risk and the coping capacity or system resilience. By combining these indicators through different weighting strategies (i.e. budgetary allocation, and fuzzy logic), we calculate a total risk for each threat. Then, we integrate these risks by applying AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) weighting, and we derive a set of multi-risk maps. Eventually, we identify the dominant risks for each zone, and a number of risk hot-spot areas. The proposed approach can be applied with different degree of detail depending on the quality of the available data. This allows the application of the method even in case of non homogeneous data, which is often the case for regional scale analyses. Moreover, it allows the integration of different risk types or metrics. Relative risk scores are provided from this methodology, not directly accounting for the temporal occurrence probability of the phenomena.
A non-extensive approach to risk assessment
Authors: Vallianatos F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We analytically estimate the risk function of natural hazards (earthquakes, rockfalls, forestfires, landslides) by means of a non-extensive approach which is based on implementing the Tsallis entropy for the estimation of the probability density function (PDF) and introducing a phenomenological exponential expression for the damage function. The result leads to a power law expression as a special case and the b-value is given as a function of the non-extensive parameter q. A discussion of risk function dependence on the parameters of hazard PDF and damage function for various hazards is given.
On the statistical relationship between cloud optical and microphysical characteristics and rainfall intensity for convective storms over the Mediterranean
Authors: Cattani E. , Torricella F. , Laviola S. , Levizzani V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The relationship between the multi-spectral cloud field characterization from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and the rainfall intensities from the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-module B (AMSU-B) data were studied for a convective storm event, which occurred during the first 15 days of June 2007 over the Mediterranean. The cloud products exploited in this analysis, cloud mask, type, optical thickness, and effective radius, are obtained from the NOAA-NESDIS operational processing system Clouds from the AVHRR-Extended algorithm (CLAVR-x), whereas the rain intensity values are retrieved from the AMSU-B brightness temperatures via a fast algorithm, using opaque frequencies (centred at 183 GHz) to correct for the presence of water vapour affecting the retrieval results. The algorithm is conceived to discriminate between convective and stratiform rain using a suitable set of thresholds; the retrieval is subsequently carried out separately for the two types. A test for the discrimination of precipitating from non-precipitating areas was based on the comparison between the precipitation information and the retrieved cloud parameters. The test produced a cloud optical thickness threshold value, beyond which the precipitation initiates, and an effective radius range for the identification of the precipitating clouds. The results stemming from the application of the test to the June 2007 case study are very encouraging, although still preliminary and restricted to the analyzed Mediterranean storms. In particular, the test shows high potential for delineating non-precipitating areas (more than 90% of successful cases for every considered cloud type) and to identify precipitating ice clouds related to convective rain (confirmed by 82% of hits). On the other hand, the relative inability to address the stratiform cloud systems is proved by the fact that the majority of the missed cases, for each cloud types, is characterized by light rain intensities (≤3 mm h−1).
Tsunami generation by ocean floor rupture front propagation: Hamiltonian description
Authors: Pavlov V. I. , Tromp J. , Tito E. P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Hamiltonian method is applied to the problem of tsunami generation caused by a propagating rupture front and deformation of the ocean floor. The method establishes an alternative framework for analyzing the tsunami generation process and produces analytical expressions for the power and directivity of tsunami radiation (in the far-field) for two illustrative cases, with constant and gradually varying speeds of rupture front propagation.
A Support Analysis Framework for mass movement damage assessment: applications to case studies in Calabria (Italy)
Authors: Petrucci O. , Gullà G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The analysis of data describing damage caused by mass movements in Calabria (Italy) allowed the organisation of the Support Analysis Framework (SAF), a spreadsheet that converts damage descriptions into numerical indices expressing direct, indirect, and intangible damage. The SAF assesses damage indices of past mass movements and the potential outcomes of dormant phenomena re-activations. It is based on the effects on damaged elements and is independent of both physical and geometric phenomenon characteristics. SAF sections that assess direct damage encompass several lines, each describing an element characterised by a value fixed on a relative arbitrary scale. The levels of loss are classified as: L4: complete; L3: high; L2: medium; or L1: low. For a generic line l, the SAF multiplies the value of a damaged element by its level of loss, obtaining dl, the contribution of the line to the damage. Indirect damage is appraised by two sections accounting for: (a) actions aiming to overcome emergency situations and (b) actions aiming to restore pre-movement conditions. The level of loss depends on the number of people involved (a) or the cost of actions (b). For intangible damage, the level of loss depends on the number of people involved. We examined three phenomena, assessing damage using the SAF and SAFL, customised versions of SAF based on the elements actually present in the analysed municipalities that consider the values of elements in the community framework. We show that in less populated, inland, and affluent municipalities, the impact of mass movements is greater than in coastal areas. The SAF can be useful to sort groups of phenomena according to their probable future damage, supplying results significant either for insurance companies or for local authorities involved in both disaster management and planning of defensive measures.
Susceptibility versus resilience to mountain hazards in Austria - paradigms of vulnerability revisited
Authors: Fuchs S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The concept of vulnerability is pillared by multiple disciplinary theories underpinning either a technical or a social origin of the concept and resulting in a range of paradigms for either a qualitative or quantitative assessment of vulnerability. However, efforts to reduce susceptibility to hazards and to create disaster-resilient communities require intersections among these theories, since human activity cannot be seen independently from the environmental setting. Acknowledging different roots of disciplinary paradigms, issues determining structural, economic, institutional and social vulnerability are discussed with respect to mountain hazards in Austria. It is argued that structural vulnerability as originator results in considerable economic vulnerability, generated by the institutional settings of dealing with natural hazards and shaped by the overall societal framework. If vulnerability and its counterpart, resilience, is analysed and evaluated by using a comprehensive approach, a better understanding of the vulnerability-influencing parameters could be achieved, taking into account the interdependencies and interactions between the disciplinary foci. Thereby the overall aim of this paper is not to develop another integrative approach for vulnerability assessment, different approaches are rather applied by using a vulnerability-of-place criterion, and key issues of vulnerability are reconsidered aiming at a general illustration of the situation in a densely populated mountain region of Europe.
A GIS method for assessment of rock slide tsunami hazard in all Norwegian lakes and reservoirs
Authors: Romstad B. , Harbitz C. B. , Domaas U.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. An evaluation of rock slide tsunami hazard is applied to all Norwegian lakes larger than 0.1 km2 based on their topographical setting. The analysis results in a topographic rock slide potential score that indicates the relative hazard in each lake. Even though the score value each lake receives should be interpreted with caution, the distribution of score values shows that we are able to make a clear distinction between lakes with a high vs. lakes with a low hazard. The results also show a clustering of threatened lakes in parts of Western Norway as well as some locations in Northern Norway. This makes the results useful as a tool for focusing further studies on regions or specific lakes that received high scores. The results also show how the method may be used for more detailed analysis of a given lake (or fjord). Maps can be produced that may serve as a guide when carrying out field campaigns or when designing scenarios for numerical simulations of tsunamis in the lake. It should be emphasised that the rock slide potential reported for each lake is based on the topographical setting alone and hence, does not represent the actual probability of rock slides into the lakes. For a given area, more detailed investigations of the geology, triggering factors and frequency of previous rock slide events should be carried out before definite statements about the actual hazard can be made.
Heavy rains and extreme rainfall-runoff events in Central Europe from 1951 to 2002
Authors: Müller M. , Kašpar M. , Matschullat J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Runoff data were used to better select historically significant precipitation events. The suggested criterion Qx expresses the increase of a stream runoff over up to four days in a row. Tests confirmed that Qx maxima correspond to maxima of areal precipitation in the respective catchment. Ten significant precipitation events in summer half-years from 1951 to 2002 were selected in 25 catchments each, and further studied in respect to spatial extent, simultaneous occurrence in various river basins, seasonal distribution, and temporal variability. Four regions were recognised within Central Europe that show related seasonality and simultaneous occurrence of events. The main coincidence of significant precipitation events was confirmed between the Austrian Alps and Bohemia and Saxony on one hand, and Moravia, Silesia, and Western Slovakia on the other hand. Significant events typically emerge here during peak summer, in the south-eastern area of the Alps during autumn months, in the South-Eastern Carpathians from May to July, and in Western Germany in spring or autumn. Episodes with less significant precipitation events (around 1960 and 1990) alternate with inverse episodes (1970's, second half of the 1990's). A reasonable selection of reference events opens the door to a quantitative evaluation of dynamic and thermodynamic conditions typical for heavy rains in various parts of Central Europe.
Experimental study of the impact response of geocells as components of rockfall protection embankments
Authors: Lambert S. , Gotteland P. , Nicot F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Rockfall protection embankments are ground levees designed to stop falling boulders. This paper investigates the behaviour of geocells to be used as components of these structures. Geocells, or cellular confinement systems, are composite structures associating a manufactured envelope with a granular geomaterial. Single cubic geocells were subjected to the impact resulting from dropping a spherical boulder. The geocells were filled with fine or coarse materials and different boundary conditions were applied on the lateral faces. The response is analysed in terms of the impact force and the force transmitted by the geocell to its rigid base. The influence on the geocell response of both the fill material and the cell boundary conditions is analysed. The aim was to identify the conditions resulting in greatest reduction of the transmitted force and also to provide data for the validation of a specific numerical model.
Integrated database for rapid mass movements in Norway
Authors: Jaedicke C. , Lied K. , Kronholm K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Rapid gravitational slope mass movements include all kinds of short term relocation of geological material, snow or ice. Traditionally, information about such events is collected separately in different databases covering selected geographical regions and types of movement. In Norway the terrain is susceptible to all types of rapid gravitational slope mass movements ranging from single rocks hitting roads and houses to large snow avalanches and rock slides where entire mountainsides collapse into fjords creating flood waves and endangering large areas. In addition, quick clay slides occur in desalinated marine sediments in South Eastern and Mid Norway. For the authorities and inhabitants of endangered areas, the type of threat is of minor importance and mitigation measures have to consider several types of rapid mass movements simultaneously. An integrated national database for all types of rapid mass movements built around individual events has been established. Only three data entries are mandatory: time, location and type of movement. The remaining optional parameters enable recording of detailed information about the terrain, materials involved and damages caused. Pictures, movies and other documentation can be uploaded into the database. A web-based graphical user interface has been developed allowing new events to be entered, as well as editing and querying for all events. An integration of the database into a GIS system is currently under development. Datasets from various national sources like the road authorities and the Geological Survey of Norway were imported into the database. Today, the database contains 33 000 rapid mass movement events from the last five hundred years covering the entire country. A first analysis of the data shows that the most frequent type of recorded rapid mass movement is rock slides and snow avalanches followed by debris slides in third place. Most events are recorded in the steep fjord terrain of the Norwegian west coast, but major events are recorded all over the country. Snow avalanches account for most fatalities, while large rock slides causing flood waves and huge quick clay slides are the most damaging individual events in terms of damage to infrastructure and property and for causing multiple fatalities. The quality of the data is strongly influenced by the personal engagement of local observers and varying observation routines. This database is a unique source for statistical analysis including, risk analysis and the relation between rapid mass movements and climate. The database of rapid mass movement events will also facilitate validation of national hazard and risk maps.
Day-time variations of foF2 connected to strong earthquakes
Authors: Liperovskaya E. V. , Bogdanov V. V. , Biagi P.-F. , Meister C.-V. , Liperovsky V. A. , Rodkin M. V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The statistical analysis of the characteristic frequency foF2 of the Earth's ionosphere averaged over mid-day hours – from 11:00 till 17:00 h LT – is carried out. Disturbances of foF2 connected to earthquakes are considered on the background of seasonal, geomagnetic, 11-years and 27-days solar variations. A special normalized parameter F is introduced, which represents the almost seasonal-independent part of foF2. Days with high solar (Wolf number >100) and geomagnetic (∑Kp>30) activity are excluded from the analysis. Events with magnitude M>5, distance from the sounding station R<500 km and depth h<70 km are taken into account. The superimposed epoches' method is used to determine the temporal dependence of F. It is found that F increases about 3–6 days before the earthquakes and then decreases one day – two days before the shock. The decreased values of F continue to exist two-three days after events with M>5.5. The obtained phenomenon depends on the magnitude of the earthquake. For events with M>5.5, the reliability of the effect is larger than 95%. For data of more than 80 earthquakes in the vicinity of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky and more than 200 earthquakes in the vicinity of Tokyo analogous results are obtained.