bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Understanding sea level rise using polar motion from 1979 to 2
Authors: Seo Ki-Weon , Ryu Dongryeol , Youm Kookhyeon , Chen Jianli , Wilson Clark
Published: March 2024

Sea level rise is one of the most significant consequences of the warming climate. GRACE and GRACE Follow-On satellites have been providing critical clues about the primary contributor to recent sea level rise, such as the melting ice sheets and mountain glaciers, and the depletion of terrestrial water storage. However, due to the limited availability of satellite gravity data (only since 2002) and other direct observations, understanding changes in ocean mass during the 20th century had to rely on global hydrological or Earth systems modeling.On the other hand, efforts have been made to understand the past sea level rise using a combination of optical/microwave satellite imagery of polar regions, along with glaciological and geodetic data for mountain glaciers, global databases for large dams, and climate models for terrestrial water storage. Despite these efforts, verifying the accuracy of the combined estimates requires independent long-term observational evidence.In this presentation, we show that studying Earth’s polar motion presents a unique opportunity to comprehend historical sea level rises predating the GRACE satellite era. Observed polar motion data from 1979 to 2010 agree well with estimates derived from various observations and climate models. During this period, the total increase in ocean mass is estimated to 52.94 mm (equivalent to 1.65 mm per year), encompassing contributions from ice melting in Antarctica (9.11 mm), Greenland (8.95 mm), mountain glaciers (20.16 mm), and the depletion of terrestrial water storage (13.72 mm). This approach utilizing polar motion offers a valuable means for historical sea level rise assessments, filling gaps in our understanding before the advent of the GRACE satellite missions.
A fast forward model for IASI and TANSO-FTS CH4 retrievals 
Authors: Robert Charles , Vandenbusshe Sophie , Vandaele Ann Carine , Erwin Justin , De Mazière Martine
Published: March 2024

Atmospheric methane (CH₄) is measured continuously from space, providing valuable information at global scales for atmospheric monitoring. CH₄ measurements from space can be based on observations in the shortwave infrared (SWIR), leading to a more uniform sensitivity to the atmospheric column, as well as thermal infrared observations (TIR) which provide useful information on the CH₄ content in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere.Among the various instruments measuring in the TIR, the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) series of instruments onboard the METOP satellites have been observing the Earth’s atmosphere for more than 15 years. Also, the Thermal And Near infrared Sensor for carbon Observation Fourier-Transform Spectrometer (TANSO-FTS) on-board the GOSAT 1 and 2 satellites monitor the atmosphere in the SWIR and TIR since 2009. Both instruments provide valuable information for the retrieval atmospheric CH₄.CH4 retrievals in the TIR can be demanding in terms of computational time. The large number of species in the CH4 region, and the high radiometric accuracy of current and upcoming instruments (e.g. IASI, IASI-NG) demand highly accurate radiative transfer modelling (RTM), to be carried out on a fine spectral and vertical grid. These constraints usually lead to long processing time when using full-physics RTMs (e.g. ASIMUT-ALVL). Other fast RTMs exists (e.g. RTTOV), but they often cannot be easily modified to include a specific species or spectroscopy, and do not support all instruments.To allow for faster processing of the already large datasets available, we developed a model based on the Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) approach (Liu et al., 2006) to perform CH4 inversion in the TIR with IASI and TANSO-FTS. Instead of predicting channel radiance directly, the Principal Component-based Radiative Transfer Model (PCRTM) predicts the Principal Component (PC) scores of these quantities parameterized by a relatively small number of monochromatic RT simulations, leading to significant savings in computational time. The model returns the channel radiances and the jacobians for all species of interest.In this work, we will detail the approach that was taken for the development of the fast RTM and will compare the results with a full-physics RTM. The impact of some internal parameters on the current model will also be discussed, as well as possible improvements in the future. Reference:Xu Liu, William L. Smith, Daniel K. Zhou, and Allen Larar, "Principal component-based radiative transfer model for hyperspectral sensors: theoretical concept," Appl. Opt. 45, 201-209 (2006)
Characterizing past earthquakes through historical observations and logic tree approximation
Authors: Calisto Ignacia , Cifuentes Rodrigo , San Martín Javiera , Alvarez Javiera , Ely Lisa , MacInnes Breanyn , Quezada Jorge , Stewart Daniel
Published: March 2024

Characterizing the spatial distribution of ruptures from historical and recent earthquakes is key to understanding the seismic cycle of large earthquakes in subduction zones, and thus to assessing the potentialrisks associated with future earthquakes. Central Chile (35°S - 38°S) has been continuously affected by large earthquakes, such as the 2010 Maule (Mw 8.8) and the 1835 earthquakes witnessed by Robert Fitzroy (HMS Beagle captain). Here, we identify the rupture pattern and tsunami propagation of the 1751, 1835, and 2010 mega-earthquakes, events that overlapped in central Chile, by  compiling historical records and applying robust statistical tools. We used an adaptation of a logic tree methodology to generate random sources of slip distribution for each event, constrained by tsunami and deformation data. We find that the three events studied have different slip peaks. The 1751 earthquake has the largest slip with a maximum patch of ∼ 26 m, while the 2010 and 1835 earthquakes reach slips of ∼ 16 m and ∼ 10 m, respectively. Our results show that a part of the segment between 36◦S and 37◦S was consistently affected by large earthquakes, but with different slip and depth. The northern part of the segment accumulated energy for at least 300 years and was released by the 2010 earthquake. This work provides important information for identifying rupture patterns between historical and recent earthquakes, and highlights the importance of extending the time scale of earthquake slip distribution analyses to multiple cycles to describe both earthquake characteristics and their spatial relationship, and thus gain a better understanding of seismic hazard.
The Seismic Expression and Tectonomagmatic Evolution of Subduction Termination along the Anatolian Margin 
Authors: Delph Jonathan , Reid Mary , Portner Daniel , Beck Susan , Ozacar A. Arda , Schleiffarth W. Kirk , Darin Michael , Whitney Donna , Cosca Michael , Teyssier Christian , Kaymakci Nuretdin , Sandvol Eric
Published: March 2024

The geological expression of subduction termination is poorly understood due to overprinting during the collisional stage of the Wilson Cycle. The Anatolian domain of the eastern Mediterranean represents a modern system where spatial variability can be interpreted in terms of the transition from subduction to collision. Convergence in the west is accommodated by the subduction of the last remnants of Neotethyan oceanic lithosphere, while in the east, the margin has transitioned to complete continent-continent collision. In central Anatolia, however, the expression of convergence is complicated by the underthrusting of small continental fragments and attenuated continental lithosphere. By investigating variations in the geological expression of convergence across this system, we can investigate the processes that accompany the transition from subduction to collision.Spatially variable tectonomagmatic and seismic characteristics along the Anatolian margin reflect this transition. Seismic images reveal a disjointed and disaggregating subducting slab beneath central Anatolia that interacts with, and in some cases induces, mantle flow. This spatially corresponds with Miocene-to-recent volcanism that is sourced from very shallow depths (
The SERPENTINE Project Data Center
Authors: Gómez-Herrero Raúl , Espinosa Lara Francisco , Rodríguez-Pacheco Javier , Rodríguez-García Laura , Cernuda Ignacio , Roco Mario , Vainio Rami , Dresing Nina , Kartavykh Yulia , Kilpua Emilia K.J. , Trotta Domenico , Plotnikov Illya , Price Daniel , Heber Bernd , Horbury Timothy S. , Wimmer-Schweingruber Robert F. ,   The SERPENTINE Team
Published: March 2024

Since its start in 2021, the Solar EneRgetic ParticlE aNalysis plaTform for the INner hEliosphere (SERPENTINE) Project funded by EU H2020 program is using multi-spacecraft observations to investigate the origin of Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs) and providing new tools and datasets for the heliophysics community. SERPENTINE distributes new catalogues covering past and recent multipoint observations of SEP events, as well as their associated coronal mass ejections and interplanetary shocks. New SEP-related high-level data products from BepiColombo and Solar Orbiter missions, with added scientific value will be also provided in the near future. In this work, we summarize the structure, contents, and functionalities of the SERPENTINE Project Data Center (https://data.serpentine-h2020.eu/), a web-based interface providing open access to the various catalogues and high-level data products resulting from the project.This research has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 101004159 (SERPENTINE).
The effect of terrestrial water storage anomalies on regional economic growth
Authors: Reckwitz Anna , Kotz Maximilian , Voigt Christian , Wenz Leonie
Published: March 2024

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) is an essential resource for agriculture, urban development, and energy production, as well as ecosystem health and climate change mitigation. Through satellite gravimetry methods, GRACE and GRACE-FO measurements enable the assessment of TWS anomalies globally, revealing significant alterations over the past two decades due to natural variability, climate change impacts, and direct human influence. Existing studies focus on the impacts of TWS changes on the production of specific crops or agricultural output in specific countries, yet the effects on agro-economic output on a more global scale are not yet well understood. To address this gap in our understanding of the macroeconomic impacts of TWS changes, we combine GRACE measurements with data on economic growth from more than 1600 subnational regions worldwide over the last 60 years. We then empirically assess the impact of TWS anomalies on regional economic growth, employing a long-difference model and fixed-effects panel regression, following recent work on temperature and precipitation impacts. We find that negative groundwater anomalies are associated with reductions in economic growth in a majority of regions. This highlights the critical role of freshwater availability, in particular in low-income regions. Furthermore, we observe that the relationship between TWS and economic growth depends on both meteorological and socioeconomic factors. These heterogeneous relations reflect the complex interplay between water resources and economic development, and indicate potential endogeneity therein. We therefore further discuss instrumental variable approaches for isolating the meteorological drivers of water storage and their causal impact on economic output. These findings contribute valuable insights to the ongoing discourse on sustainable water management and its implications for economic prosperity.
Urban deprivation and enhanced inequality in sub-Saharan Africa
Authors: Li Chengxiu , Yu Le
Published: March 2024

Globally, 1.2 billion urban dwellers live in slums facing essential service deficiencies and heightened vulnerability, thereby challenging the United Nations' commitment to "Leave no one behind" in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). We investigated availability of key urban services (water, sanitation, housing, living spaces) that define slums, revealing that 58.9% of households in 27 African countries lack access to at least one of above service based on household surveys, leading to their categorization as slums households. While slum proportion has decreased over the past two decades, however inequality has rose in countries with a high prevalence of slums.Through the integration of household surveys, geospatial data, and machine learning algorithms, we estimated the wealth level and key service availability across sub-Saharan Africa. This approach revealed that 53.4% of urban population resides in slums, surpassing the UN's estimate of 44.9%. This study revealed that poor urban service in slums exacerbate inequality, however current aggregated statistics underestimate the extent of under-serviced urban slums, leading to ineffective efforts in building prosperity for all.
Frictional Properties of Simulated Fault Gouges subject to Normal Stress Oscillation and Implications for Induced Seismicity
Authors: Yu Bowen , Chen Jianye , Spiers Christopher J. , Ma Shengli
Published: March 2024

Under critical conditions where fault slip exhibits self-sustained oscillation in experiments, effects of normal stress oscillation (NSO) on fault strength and stability remain uncertain, as do potential effects of NSO on natural and induced seismicity. In this study, we employed double direct shear testing to investigate the frictional behavior of a synthetic, near velocity-neutral (VN) fault gouge (characterized by self-sustained oscillation under quasi-static shear loading), when subjected to NSO at different amplitudes and frequencies. During the experiment, fault displacement and gouge layer thickness were measured. Transmitted ultrasonic waves were also employed to probe grain contact states within the gouge layer. Our results show that fault weakening and unstable slip can be readily triggered by oscillations, depending on oscillation frequency and amplitude. Interestingly, an amplified shear stress drop and weakening effect were observed when the oscillation frequency fell in a specific range (0.01–0.1Hz). No such effects were seen in a velocity-strengthening gouge. Analysis of transmitted ultrasonic waves in the test on the VN gouge reveals the presence of fault dilatation, accompanied by unstable slip and weakening. By extending an existing microphysical model (the "CNS” model), to account for elastic effects of NSO on gouge microstructure and grain contact state, the mechanical and wave data obtained in our experiment on the VN gouge was reproduced. Assisted by the microphysically-based friction model, resolving the instability criterion of a velocity-neutral fault under perturbation is crucial for understanding and thus predicting the fault behaviors of certain scenarios, like periodic gas storage in deep reservoirs.
Regional groundwater flow mapping in NE Hungary – a tool to understand drinking water quality and quantity problems for sustainable resource management
Authors: Hegedűs-Csondor Katalin , Jávorcsik Réka , Dawn Garcia Reyana , Baják Petra , Kohuth-Ötvös Viktória , Erőss Anita
Published: March 2024

In Hungary, the drinking water supply almost exclusively uses groundwater resources. Recent investigations revealed that waterworks have difficulties in maintaining the proper quantity and quality (e.g. because of elevated gross alpha activity concentration) of drinking water in certain settlements in NE Hungary. To understand and to solve these groundwater-related issues, there is a need for a thorough understanding of groundwater flow dynamics and the associated geochemical characteristics in the broader area. The aims of the present study in the research area are 1) to evaluate the groundwater flow systems based on measured hydraulic data on regional and local scale, 2) to characterize the geochemical composition of the waters based on archive geochemical data to support the hydraulic studies 3) to use natural radioanuclides (234U/238U ratio, 226Ra and 222Rn) as natural tracers to evaluate local water quality issues. Firstly, regional groundwater flow mapping was carried out in the study area. Based on data collected from archive well documentation, a database was built containing the main properties (e.g. coordinates, water level, well depth, screening) of 722 wells. Pore pressure and hydraulic head values were calculated. To examine the horizontal groundwater flow directions, six potential maps were constructed between -200 m asl and 600 m asl elevation intervals. On the other hand, 34 pressure-elevation profiles were compiled to understand the vertical flow dynamics and identify the different flow regime areas (i.e. recharge, midline, discharge). The results showed that in the examined depth, topography-driven groundwater flow systems exist. Recharge areas are characteristic of the hilly and mountainous areas along the Hungarian-Austrian border, while discharge regime is dominant in the surroundings of Lake Fertő/Neusiedl and along water courses. The dominant horizontal flow direction is from W- SW to E-NE. The geochemical results were evaluated in the groundwater flow system context. Uranium was identified as the main cause of elevated gross alpha activity. The results contribute to the sustainable production of healthy drinking water and planning of new drinking water abstraction sites. 

The research is part of a project which was funded by the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change, RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014. The study is also supported by the ÚNKP-23-5 New National Excellence Program of the Ministry for Culture and Innovation from the source of the National Research, Development and Innovation Fund.
Western North American and Switzerland glaciers experience unprecedented mass loss over the last three years
Authors: Menounos Brian , Huss Matthias , Marshall Shawn , Ednie Mark , Florentine Caitlyn
Published: March 2024

Glaciers in western North America (WNA) and Switzerland represent important sources of freshwater, especially during times of drought. We employ extensive airborne laser altimetry campaigns in WNA coupled with in-situ surface mass balance measurements for both regions to quantify recent mass change. Over the last three years glaciers within these regions respectively lost mass at rates of -22.8±7.4 and -1.7±0.3 Gt yr-1 which, for both regions, represents an approximate twofold increase in mass loss compared to the period 2010-2020. Based on the estimated glacier volume in the year 2020, total volume change in these regions was depleted by 9% (WNA) and 10% (Switzerland) over the last three years. The year 2023 represents the year of greatest common mass loss for both regions where glaciers in both WNA and Switzerland respectively lost -37.1±10.4 and -1.8±0.3 Gt yr-1. Meteorological conditions that favored high rates of mass loss included low winter snow accumulation, early-season heat waves, and prolonged warm, dry conditions. Loss of firn, high transient snow lines, and potential impurity loading due to wildfires (WNA) or Saharan dust (Switzerland) darkened glaciers and thereby accelerated melt via an increase in absorbed shortwave radiation available for melt. This ice-albedo feedback will lead to continued accelerated loss unless recently exposed dark firn and ice at high elevation can be buried by subsequent snowfall. Rates of mass loss for the years 2021-2023 exceed even those projected for unabated global emissions though the twenty-first century, signaling the need to rapidly mitigate greenhouse gas emissions if glaciers in both regions are to survive.   
Mapping Regional Sub-Surface Soil Moisture Dynamics and Extremes on the Large Scale Through Data Fusion
Authors: Schmidt Toni , Schrön Martin , Zacharias Steffen , Francke Till , Peng Jian
Published: March 2024

Soil moisture products play a pivotal role in monitoring and predicting droughts that affect crop yield, water supply, and land–atmosphere interactions. The availability of various satellite-based soil moisture products allows for a comprehensive investigation of droughts on a large scale. However, limitations in their spatial sampling impact their suitability for regional applications. Accurately inferring sub-pixel heterogeneity is crucial for a representative understanding of regional dynamics and their implications for drought assessment across diverse landscapes. Furthermore, the shallow vertical support of satellite-based soil moisture products hinder the detection and quantification of droughts within the sub-surface. This study leverages multi-scale data fusion, aiming to replicate soil moisture extremes both regionally and in the sub-surface. We integrate ground-based Cosmic-Ray Neutron Sensing (CRNS) data, representing soil moisture within an extensive soil volume, with high-resolution Sentinel-1 data. Employing machine learning models that account for spatiotemporal autocorrelations, our objective is to generate gridded soil moisture data representing regional sub-surface dynamics. Tested in a German catchment, our approach tackles challenges associated with the scarcity of CRNS stations and the complexities of integrating multi-scale data. Our findings establish a foundation for monitoring regional droughts in the sub-surface across extensive areas.
Identification of Source Faults of Large Earthquakes in the Turkey-Syria Border Region Between AD 1000 and the Present, and their Relevance for the 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık Earthquake
Authors: Carena Sara , Friedrich Anke Maria , Verdecchia Alessandro , Kahle Beth , Rieger Stefanie M. , Kübler Simon
Published: March 2024

The February 6th, 2023, Mw 7.8 Pazarcık earthquake in the Turkey-Syria border region raises the question of whether such a large earthquake could have been foreseen, as well as what is the maximum possible magnitude (Mmax) of earthquakes on the East Anatolian fault system and on continental transform faults in general. To answer such questions, knowledge of past earthquakes and of their causative faults is necessary. Here, we integrate data from historical seismology, paleoseismology, archeoseismology, and remote sensing to identify the likely source faults of fourteen Mw ≥ 7 earthquakes between AD 1000 and the present in the region. We conclude that, based on the historical seismic records of the region, the 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık earthquake was foreseeable in space and time, but not in size. Mmax for the EAF is likely ~ 8.2, with the limit rupture length being the distance between the Karliova and Amik triple junctions. The 2023 earthquake may not have reached Mmax simply by a fortuitous combination of factors: if the 2020 Elȃziǧ earthquake had not happened where and when it did, would the 2023 rupture have continued propagating towards the northeast? This is a question that could be answered by combining Coulomb stress models and dynamic rupture models. If nothing else, what we have learned from the 2023 Mw 7.8 Pazarcık earthquake is that segmentation of continental transform faults is not relevant for calculating Mmax, because some earthquakes can jump across segment boundaries. Such earthquakes are so infrequent, however, that they are difficult to study, and therefore hard to foresee.
Soil microbes increase investment into storage compounds during drought conditions.
Authors: Canarini Alberto , Lauritz Mona , Sodnikar Katharina , Hofmann Thilo , Fuchslueger Lucia , Watzka Margarete , Pötsch Erich M. , Schaumberger Andreas , Bahn Michael , Richter Andreas
Published: March 2024

The rise of atmospheric CO2 concentrations, with subsequent increase in global warming and the frequency and duration of severe droughts, is altering the terrestrial carbon (C) cycling, with potential feedback to climate change.  Microbial growth, turnover and carbon use efficiency, are major controls of soil carbon fluxes to the atmosphere. Given the prominent role of soil microbial physiology for C cycling, quantifying microbial physiological responses to climate change is essential. Advances in the field now permit the quantification of community-level microbial growth and carbon use efficiency in dry conditions, by introducing stable isotopes in soil water via a water vapor equilibration technique. This has recently allowed, for the first time, to evaluate microbial physiology under drought conditions.We here used the water vapor equilibration technique to measure deuterium (2H) incorporation into phospholipid and neutral fatty acids (PLFA and NLFA) and polyhydroxybutyrate (PHB). We applied this approach to soil samples collected from a long-term climate change experiment (ClimGrass) where warming, elevated atmospheric CO2 (eCO2) and drought are manipulated in a full factorial combination. Samples were taken in the field at four time points: before drought, one month and two months into drought, and few days after rewetting. We used a high-throughput method to extract PLFAs and NLFAs from soil, as well as a newly developed method to extract PHB, and measured 2H enrichment in these compounds via GC-IRMS.We showed that during drought, bacterial growth rates are reduced, except for Actinobacteria, which maintain similar mass specific growth rates as compared to control conditions. Similarly, fungi growth rates are not affected by drought. Production of NLFAs (belonging to fungi and gram-negative bacteria) increased up to 4 to 6 folds when compared to production of membrane lipids. PHB production rates did not change compared to control conditions, revealing a higher production per unit of active bacteria. Our study demonstrates that climate change can have strong effects on microbial physiology. Investment into storage compounds is a major strategy present across different soil microbial groups in response to drought. Soil fungi and actinobacteria are key taxa in the microbial response to drought, maintaining most of the growth rates of the soil microbial community. 
The Relationship Between Electron Precipitation and the Population of Trapped Electrons in LEO: New Evidence Supporting a Natural Limit to the Flux of Energetic Electrons
Authors: Ozeke Louis , Mann Ian , Olifer Leon , Chakraborty Suman , Pettit Joshua
Published: March 2024

Energetic particle precipitation into the atmosphere has been identified as a key loss process for electrons in the Earth’s outer radiation belt region. However, direct measurements of the electron flux precipitating into the atmosphere are challenging from high altitude low inclination spacecraft, such as the Van Allen Probes, due to the small angular size of the loss cone along the orbital path of these high-altitude spacecraft. Here we use data from the Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES)/Space Environment Monitor in low Earth orbit to assess the relationship between the trapped and precipitating electron flux in integral energy channels >30 keV, >100 keV, and >300 keV. Our results highlight that there is a strong non-linear relationship between the flux of trapped and precipitating electrons, with the ratio of precipitating to trapped flux only becoming significantly enhanced once the trapped flux reaches a critical level. This transition from low to high levels of precipitation is consistent with the theory proposed by Kennel and Petschek (K-P) (1966) https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ071i001p00001, whereby intense chorus waves are excited and trigger pitch angle diffusion, resulting in energetic particle precipitation and limiting the trapped flux. Using electron flux data from POES and chorus wave data from the Van Allen Probes, we further test the observations against predictions from the K-P theory. A particle tracing model is also utilized to illustrate a direct link between the drift paths of injected electrons, the occurrence of chorus waves and the spatial distribution of strong electron precipitation into the atmosphere at different energies.
Forecasting and characterizing induced seismicity at the Utah FORGE EGS site
Authors: Lanza Federica , Wiemer Stefan ,   DEEP Team
Published: March 2024

Managing induced seismicity risk is an absolute must to enable the widespread use of deep geothermal technologies, and thus contribute to the transformation towards a sustainable and low-carbon energy sector. A full-scale application of real-time monitoring and forecasting of induced seismicity was tested in April 2022, during a three-stage hydraulic stimulation in a deep granite heat reservoir of low permeability at the Utah FORGE EGS site. During the stimulation, a total of ~1600 m3 pressurized fluids were injected into the target reservoir of ~2.4 km depth to generate fracture networks and improve reservoir permeability for heat extraction. Stage 3 had the most complete monitoring network and thus was used to test the components of an Adaptive Traffic Light System (ATLS). The test produced very positive results, although the data stream was lost early into the stimulation.Here, we further characterize and perform a retrospective forecasting of post-processed data related to the induced seismicity recorded during stage 3 of the 2022 stimulation at FORGE site. We first investigate the geometrical distribution of the seismicity and discuss it in the context of the stress field at FORGE injection site. The statistical inference indicates that the distribution of the seismicity lies on a plane sub-parallel to the Sv - SHmax and orthogonal to SHmin, and with strike orientation rotated 10o counterclockwise with respect to the N25oE average orientation of SHmax. The analysis seems to indicate that seismicity is induced by a tensile fracture, although we cannot completely rule-out seismic activity on a pre-existing fault. Gutenberg-Richter b-value variations in space are compatible with large magnitude events occurring at the edges of the earthquake propagating front. We further investigate the possible fracturing mechanisms triggered by the injection operation by fitting three plausible physical models: (1) a high-pore pressure diffusion model, (2) an aseismic crack model, and (3) a penny-shaped tensile crack model as the causative process of the recorded seismicity. The analysis of the seismicity evolution alone allows us to fit the three considered scenarios to the data independently, however we cannot exclude a combination of the three processes acting together. Through pseudo-retrospective forecasting, we then replay the induced seismicity as it was happening in real-time. We demonstrate that even if the physical processes are complex and likely difficult to disentangle using the seismicity alone, a simple empirical statistical seismicity rate forecasting model has stable predictability of hydraulic fracturing.
A radiogenic isotope framework to study palaeoaridity in the Middle East
Authors: Zhang Kai , Kunkelova Tereza , Crocker Anya J. , Gale Amelia , Xuan Chuang , Wilson Paul A.
Published: March 2024

Dust plays a vital role in global climate and environmental change by influencing the Earth’s radiation budget and providing nutrients to marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Modern dust emissions are dominated by North Africa, the Middle East and West Asia, which together provide ~80% of total global atmospheric dust. Geological deposits of dust can also act as valuable archives to study hydroclimate variability across a range of global states, with marine sediments in particular able to preserve high resolution and continuous records of past dust emissions. For example, dust preserved in Arabian Sea sediments has been used to provide climatic context for hominin evolution in East Africa, however, there is little understanding of where the deposited sediments originate and hence whether they truly record an African signal. Tracing the provenance of the lithogenic fraction in marine sediments is made particularly challenging by the lack of geochemical data in key potential source areas such as Mesopotamia, one of the most active dust emission regions in the Middle East. Here we present new radiogenic isotope data (Sr and Nd) from surface sediment samples, integrated with the satellite-derived dust source activation frequency (DSAF) maps and other published radiogenic data to characterise the geochemical fingerprint of dust-producing regions in the circum Arabian Sea. Our results provide a framework to trace sources of dust in geological archives including marine sediments, speleothems and ice cores and to identify the provenance of archaeological artefacts. We exemplify the utility of our approach by comparing our data to strategically positioned marine cores in the Arabian Sea to shed new light on key regional palaeoclimate reconstructions.
Repeating Glacier Seismicity Near the Totten Glacier Grounding Zone.
Authors: Winberry Paul
Published: March 2024

The Totten Glacier is a fast moving glacier that serves as a major outlet of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. During December 2018 and January 2019, we deployed a 12 station broadband seismic array near the grounding zone of the Totten Glacier. We observed a significant number ( > 10,000) of repeating basal stick-slip icequakes across the region. Much of this seismic activity was dominated by higher frequency events (20-75 Hz) similar in size and temporal character (“bursty”) to those found in previous studies, such as those on the Rutford Ice Stream and Greenland Ice Sheet. Additionally, we observe a large number of repeating events dominated by lower frequencies (< 10 Hz) that have larger magnitudes and longer inter-event time than the high-frequency seismic activity. We will provide an overview into both the temporal and spatial variability of this seismic activity and discuss implications for fast flow in the region.
Investigation of the lateral extent and depth of contamination using 2D electrical resistivity and the assessment of soil and water quality in the vicinity of a Waste Dumpsite in Utan Jos, Plateau State. Nigeria.
Authors: Obasuyi Faith Osasogie , Oladimeji Adedeji Mohammed , Yusuf Tawakalitu Abdullahi
Published: March 2024

Environmental protection is of global interest to earth’s inhabitants with increasing concerns related to climate change. Solid wastes constitute an undeniable source of environmental degradation and a possible disaster to human health. In Jos Metropolis, a number of arable lands double as waste dumpsites and are at risk of heavy metal pollution. Shallow groundwater used for domestic purposes and plants cultivated near these dumpsites are prone to contamination and the prolonged consumption of unsafe concentrations of heavy metals through edibles and/or water may trigger numerous biochemical alterations in the human body. Subsurface geophysical investigation using 2D electrical survey and the assessment of soil and water quality has been carried out in the arable land and at close geological proximity to a solid waste dumpsite located at Utan, Jos, Plateau State, Nigeria. This study focus on delineating the lateral extent and depth of leachate migration into the subsurface from the waste dumpsite. 2D resistivity survey was carried out along three traverse (A, B and C) using Wenner–Schlumberger configuration. Qualitative interpretation of the inverse resistivity models revealed low resistivity zones of < 44 Ωm to be regions of leachate accumulation. The extent of downward migration through the vertical stratigraphic interval exceeds 15.6 m trending laterally in the eastern direction of traverse A. The analysis of heavy metal determination for water samples was aided by the use of Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer while the soil samples were analyzed using X-ray fluorescence (XRF) analytical method. The concentrations of Pb and Ni in the analyzed water samples were above the permissible limit for drinking water and concentration of heavy metals in soil samples varies significantly. This study revealed the concentration of heavy metals in soil and water samples in close geographical proximity to the waste dumpsite and the uncontrolled disposal of waste over time poses great threat to the environment and its inhabitants. Waste management practices have to be improved upon to mitigate pollution.
Simulation of CO2 Injection in Mature Oil Fields: Implications for Geothermal Energy Generation
Authors: Kucuk Serhat , Brehme Maren , Farajzadeh Rouhi , Rossen William , Saar Martin O.
Published: March 2024

The urgent need to combat climate change underscores the importance of reducing anthropogenic CO2 levels in the atmosphere through geological sequestration. While Carbon Capture and Storage(CCS) has been applied in various settings and has demonstrated its potential over the recent decades, economic challenges associated with CCS continue to be a significant barrier to its extensive large-scale implementation. This abstract discusses a promising solution: using CO2 as a geothermal working fluid to extract heat from deep, naturally porous, and permeable geologic formations, a concept known as CO2 Plume Geothermal (CPG). Oil fields in particular are attractive candidates for the deployment of CPG due to the presence of existing well infrastructure, extensive reservoir and production data, and an effective caprock. This innovative approach not only enables enhanced oil recovery through CO2-EOR, at an initial stage, and sustainable power generation but also ensures permanent carbon sequestration. Consequently, CPG in oil fields can serve as a catalyzer to deploying large-scale CCS projects, leveraging multiple co-benefits such as energy offset, decarbonization, carbon market development, and extended operational field life.Through a combination of advanced non-isothermal and compositional numerical reservoir models, we comprehensively examine the geotechnical feasibility of deploying CPG at oil fields. The primary objectives of this study include evaluating the geothermal energy extraction efficiency, assessing the economic and environmental co-benefits, and addressing associated performance uncertainties. Building on crucial insights from existing CO2-EOR studies, we consider factors such as the mobility differences between injected and displaced fluids, interactions between CO2, oil, reservoir brine, and rock, and flow channeling through high-permeability pathways created by the heterogeneous nature of geological reservoirs. Furthermore, we delve into the thermal and compositional variations within the reservoir induced by water flooding operations during the secondary oil recovery stage, analyzing their effects on CPG performance in comparison to unperturbed saline aquifers. Integrating geothermal energy production, enhanced oil recovery, and permanent carbon sequestration, CPG in oil reservoirs can advance the integration of renewable energy and greenhouse gas management in the global effort to combat climate change.
Applying non-tidal atmosphere and ocean loading corrections on the observation, normal equation, and parameter levels in GNSS data analysis
Authors: Wang Jungang , Dobslaw Henryk , Balidakis Kyriakos , Glaser Susanne , Männel Benjamin , Ge Maorong , Heinkelmann Robert , Schuh Harald
Published: March 2024

To achieve the 1 mm accuracy and 0.1 mm/year stability of Terrestrial Reference Frame (TRF) required by Global Geodetic Observing System (GGOS), various surface displacements have to be precisely modeled. Non-tidal atmosphere, ocean, and hydrology loading displacements are major sources causing stochastic and systematic effects in station coordinates estimated by space geodetic techniques such as Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Studies show that the correction of non-tidal loading displacements in GNSS station coordinate time series reduces coordinate repeatability and thereby improves stability. Currently, non-tidal loading displacements are corrected on the observation level in Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) data analysis for standard IVS (International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry) products, but not in GNSS data analysis. We applied the ESMGFZ non-tidal atmosphere and ocean loading displacements (NTAOL) on the observation, normal equation, and parameter levels for global GNSS network solutions in 2005-2019. We demonstrate that the station coordinate repeatability can be significantly improved when correcting NTAOL displacements, especially in the up component where a reduction of 20-30% can be observed at middle and high latitudes. Whereas for other geodetic parameters, such as satellite orbits, Earth Rotation Parameters (ERP), and geocenter motion, however, the impact of NTAOL displacements is insignificant. The difference between applying NTAOL displacements on the observation to that on the normal equation level is on sub-daily scales and we show that most of these differences are absorbed by receiver clocks. As for the differences of applying NTAOL on the observation and on the parameter levels, small but systematic effects on the horizontal components of station coordinates appear, which are mainly due to network alignment. We also demonstrate that the a priori tropospheric delay modeling affects the non-tidal atmosphere loading signals in station coordinates, i.e., when applying empirical tropospheric delay models, e.g., GPT3, NTAL correction introduces a significantly smaller improvement of station coordinate repeatabilities (below 5% in up component). Hence, we recommend always using discrete tropospheric delay products from Numerical Weather Model (NWM) as a priori values when NTAL corrections are applied.
The new real-time radar-gauge-CML adjustment system pyRADMAN at DWD
Authors: Graf Maximilian , Chwala Christian , Wenzel Malte , Vogel Christian , Kunstmann Harald , Winterrath Tanja
Published: March 2024

Adjusting weather radar data with ground-based precipitation observations is an established way to overcome radar-specific uncertainties. Most commonly, rain gauge data is used for this task. Commercial microwave links (CMLs) deployed by mobile network operators offer another source of rainfall information that can be used to adjust weather radar data. One of the main advantages of CMLs for this task is the real-time availability of their data with a latency of less than a minute. In addition, their large number, with high densities in particular in urban regions, and the path-averaging nature of their measurements have the potential to improve radar adjustment at short aggregation times.We developed the Python framework pyRADMAN which is capable of merging weather radar with rain gauge and CML data with selectable temporal aggregations from minutes to hours. The path-averaging nature of the CML data is considered when merging with the gridded radar data. Computational efficiency has been taken into consideration in all implementations allowing a full countrywide radar adjustment for Germany, including the required processing of CML rainfall estimates, within 2 minutes with a pure Python implementation. pyRADMAN has now been continuously operating at DWD in real time since August 2023. Currently, real-time data streams from the gridded weather radar composite (based on 17 radar sites), ~1500 rain gauges, and ~5000 CMLs are handled by pyRADMAN, and products consisting of different combinations of sensors are produced for several aggregation times and latencies. We will show the general concept of pyRADMAN and present results from merging radar data with rain gauge and CML data. Our analysis will consist of selected events and monthly statistics. Results will be shown for aggregation times from 5 to 60 minutes and latencies of production from 5 to 20 minutes (increasing the number of available rain gauges for merging with increasing latency).
SESAME: Software tools for integrating Human - Earth System data
Authors: Faisal Abdullah Al , Kaye Maxwell , Galbraith Eric
Published: March 2024

Human activities have extensively modified over 70% of Earth’s land surface and two-thirds of marine environments through practices such as agriculture, industrialization, and urbanization. These activities have resulted in a wide range of environmental problems, including biodiversity loss, water pollution, soil erosion, and climate change. However, human data is often available only in tabular form, is difficult to integrate with natural Earth variables, and can pose significant challenges when trying to understand the complex integration between human activities and natural Earth systems. On the other hand, scientific datasets, which are spread across websites, come in different formats, may require preprocessing, use different map projections, spatial resolution, and non-standard units, are difficult for both beginner and experienced researchers to access and use due to their heterogeneity. This discrepancy hinders our understanding of complex interactions between human activities and the environment.To bridge this gap, we have created the Surface Earth System Analysis and Modelling Environment (SESAME) software and dataset package, which aims to solve the problem of fragmented and difficult-to-use human-Earth data. It can handle various data formats and generate a standardized gridded dataset with minimal output. SESAME is a software infrastructure that automatically transforms five input data types (raster, point, line, polygon, and tabular) into standardized desired spatial grids and stores them in a netCDF file. The ability of a netCDF file to store multidimensional timeseries data makes it an ideal platform for storing complex global datasets. SESAME utilizes the dasymmetric mapping technique to transform jurisdiction-level tabular data into a gridded layer proportional to the corresponding surrogate variable while considering changes in country boundaries over time. It maintains the consistency between input and output data by calculating the global sum and mean.By converting human tabular data into a gridded format, we can facilitate comprehensive and spatially explicit analyses, advancing our understanding of human-Earth systems and their complex interactions. These gridded datasets are intended to be used as inputs to a range of different Earth system models, potentially improving the simulation and evaluation of scenarios and leading to more informed and strategic future policy decisions.
Sustainable, Reliable, or Affordable: The Future European Renewable Energy Infrastructure
Authors: Cui Can
Published: March 2024

As global efforts towards achieving net-zero targets continue to grow, countries experiencing a surge in demand for renewable energy infrastructure may encounter competition due to uneven production capacities. Currently, European renewable energy infrastructure depends on limited suppliers and technologies, which have the potential to be diversified and robustified. This work aims to explore the potential supply chain transition of net-zero European renewable energy infrastructure and evaluate it in terms of environmental impacts, policy robustness, and economic costs. Based on results from scenario analysis, we find that the trade-offs always exist, i.e., sustainability, reliability, and affordability cannot be simultaneously achieved in a single scenario. Furthermore, the study emphasizes the close interaction of European renewable energy infrastructure with global capacity and market, indicating the need for a holistic approach in addressing the challenges of achieving a sustainable and resilient energy future.