bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The determinants of early fertility decline in Texas
Authors: Gutmann Myron P. , Fliess Kenneth H.
Published: March 2007

This study examines the determinants of fertility control in a frontier population made up largely of German-Americans during the years from 1850 to 1910. The analysis employs a complex register of population constructed from census enumerations, civil and ecclesiastical vital registration, and tax assessment rolls. The article begins with a series of bivariate analyses with cohort of mother’s birth, religion, ethnicity, and husband’s occupation determining marital fertility. The second half of the paper presents a multivariate model of the determinants of fertility using these and other demographic characteristics as independent variables. The conclusions emphasize the importance of the overall trend toward fertility decline in the United States, as well as the role of religion and of occupational differences, in determining changes in fertility behavior in the population of Gillespie County, Texas.
Using survey data to assess neonatal tetanus mortality levels and trends in developing countries
Authors: Boerma J. Ties , Stroh George
Published: March 2007

Demographic and health surveys are a useful source of information on the levels and trends of neonatal mortality in developing countries. Such surveys provide data on mortality occurring at 4–14 days of life, which is a sensitive indicator of neonatal tetanus mortality. We analyze birth history data from 37 national surveys in developing countries to assess the quality of neonatal mortality data and to estimate levels and trends in mortality occurring at 4–14 days. It is shown that mortality at 4-14 days has declined considerably during the last decade in most developing countries, concomitant with development and expansion of programs to reduce neonatal tetanus. These declines show that reductions in neonatal tetanus mortality probably have been an important contributor to the decline of neonatal and infant mortality during the 1980s.
What demographers can learn from fruit fly actuarial models and biology
Authors: Carey James R.
Published: March 2007

Historically demographers have viewed the results of actuarial studies of nonhuman species, particularly those on invertebrates such as fruit flies, as largely irrelevant to investigations on human populations. In this paper I present life table data from large scale studies on the Mediterranean fruit fly, and show that they provide important insights into fundamental aspects of mortality relevant to human populations: the trajectory of mortality at older ages, sex mortality differentials, the concept of maximal life span, and demographic heterogeneity and selection. An overriding theme of the paper is the need for demographers to acquire a heightened awareness of new developments in biology including areas such as evolutionary ecology, experimental demography, and molecular medicine.
How frailty models can be used for evaluating longevity limits: Taking advantage of an interdisciplinary approach
Authors: Yashin Anatoli I. , Iachine Ivan A.
Published: March 2007

In this paper we discuss an approach to the analysis of mortality and longevity limits when survival data on related individuals with and without observed covariates are available. The approach combines the ideas of demography and survival analysis with methods of quantitative genetics and genetic epidemiology. It allows us to analyze the genetic structure of frailty in the Cox-type hazard model with random effects. We demonstrate the implementation of this strategy to survival data on Danish twins. We then evaluate the resulting lower bounds for biological limits of human longevity. Finally, we discuss the limitations of this approach and directions of further research.
Death and Taxes: Longer life, consumption, and social security
Authors: Lee Ronald , Tuljapurkar Shripad
Published: March 2007

We analyze in three steps the influence of the projected mortality decline on the long run finances of the Social Security System. First, on a theoretical level, mortality decline adds person years of life which are distributed across the life cycle. The interaction of this distribution with the age distribution of labor earnings minus consumption, or of taxes minus benefits, partially determines the corresponding steady state financial consequences of mortality decline. The effect of mortality decline on population growth rates also matters, but is negligible in low mortality populations. Second, examination of past mortality trends in the United States and of international trends in low mortality populations, suggests that mortality will decline faster than foreseen by the Social Security Administration s forecasts. Third, we combine the work of the first two parts in dynamic simulations to examine the implications of mortality decline and of alternative forecasts of mortality for the finances of the social security system. Also, we use stochastic population forecasts to assess the influence of uncertainty about mortality decline on uncertainty about finances; we find that uncertainty about fertility still has more important implications than uncertainty about mortality, contrary to sensitivity tests in the official forecasts.
Why Marry? Race and the Transition to Marriage among Cohabitors
Authors: Manning Wendy D. , Smock Pamela J.
Published: March 2007

Our study investigates the transition to first marriage among cohabiting black and white men and women, drawing on data from the National Survey of Families and Households. Our results underscore the importance of economic factors on the transition to marriage for both black and white cohabitors. We also find that for black cohabitors, but not for whites, socioeconomic disadvantage during childhood reduces the odds of marriage. The presence of children in cohabiting unions tends to increase the chances of marrying a cohabiting partner for both blacks and whites. Our results demonstrate the importance of including cohabitation in research on the marriage process.
Dissolution of Premarital Cohabitation in Canada
Authors: Wu Zheng , Balakrishnan T. R.
Published: March 2007

The rapid increase in the number of unmarried cohabiting couples, indicated by recent evidence, is crucial to our understanding of changing marriage patterns. The levels and patterns of entry into cohabitation have been well documented over the last two decades. but little is known about the outcomes of nonmarital cohabitation. In this study we examine two competing outcomes of cohabitation relationships: union separation and legalization of the union through marriage. Our results show that the hazard rate of union dissolution is affected particularly by gender, fertility status, partner’s marital status, religion, age at start of cohabitation, year cohabitation commenced, and region.
A Marriage Trichotomy and its Applications
Authors: Speizer Ilene S.
Published: March 2007

This paper promotes research methods specific to men, the new focus of fertility and family planning studies (especially in sub-Saharan Africa). I propose a novel marriage categorization based on married men’s intentions to take another wife. The three marriage groups are currently monogamous men who intend to remain so, currently monogamous men who intend to become polygynous, and currently polygynous men. The first analysis demonstrates that typical marriage analyses may misclassify men who intend to become polygynous. Applications of the marriage trichotomy illustrate that men with varying marital intentions have differing desires regarding fertility and family planning.
Aggregate Population and Economic Growth Correlations: The Role of the Components of Demographic Change
Authors: Kelley Allen C. , Schmidt Robert M.
Published: March 2007

The results of recent correlations showing a negative impact of population growth on economic development in cross-country data for the 1980s, versus “nonsignificant” correlations widely found for the 1960s and 1970s, are examined with contemporaneous and lagged components of demographic change, convergence-type economic modeling, and several statistical frameworks. The separate impacts of births and deaths are found to be notable but offsetting in the earlier periods. In contrast, the short-run costs (benefits) of births (mortality reduction) increase (decrease) significantly in the 1980s, and the favorable labor-force impacts of past births are not fully offsetting.
Immigrant Characteristics and Hispanic-Anglo Housing Inequality
Authors: Krivo Lauren J.
Published: March 2007

This paper seeks to explain why Hispanic households in the United States live in housing markedly inferior to Anglos’. I argue that immigrant characteristics of Hispanic households and the metropolitan areas in which Hispanics live play important roles in determining such inequality in the housing market. Empirical analyses of homeownership, household crowding, and housing costs demonstrate that immigration plays a role in explaining relatively low homeownership and high household crowding for each of four large Hispanic populations (Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, Cubans, and other Hispanics). The role of immigrant characteristics in determining housing costs is much weaker.
Unintended Consequences of Immigration Reform: Discrimination and Hispanic Employment
Authors: Lowell B. Lindsay , Teachman Jay , Jing Zhongren
Published: March 2007

The record-keeping requirements of the Immigration Reform and Control Act(IRCA), and fines for illegal employment, may induce employers to discriminate against foreign-appearing workers. The General Accounting Office (GAO) reported widespread IRCA-related discrimination but did not link reported discriminatory practices to discriminatory employment behavior. We analyze the GAO’s random survey and, controlling for selectivity effects, demonstrate that employers who report discriminatory practices actually employ fewer Hispanics. Although the measured reduction of Hispanic employment due to IRCA is fairly small, this finding parallels research alerting us to adverse consequences of a law that so far has achieved few of its intended effects.
The Effect of Divorce on Intergenerational Transfers: New Evidence
Authors: Furstenberg Frank F. , Hoffman Saul D. , Shrestha Laura
Published: March 2007

This paper draws on new data on intergenerational transfers of time and money that were collected in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We use these data to examine the effects of divorce on these transfers. We find that the timing of divorce is critical. Fathers and mothers involved in late divorces have similar levels of transfers with their adult children, while divorce during a child’s childhood years increases transfers with mothers and sharply lowers them with fathers. Somewhat surprisingly, we find no evidence that divorced fathers who paid child support are more likely to be involved in intergenerational transfers than those who did not pay child support.
Self-Interest and Altruism in Intergenerational Relations
Authors: Logan John R. , Spitze Glenna D.
Published: March 2007

Self-interest and altruism in the relationships between generations can be manifested both within the family and in the public arena. The present study compares levels of support between age groups 40-49,50-59, 60-69, 70-79, and 80+ on a series of attitudes about “appropriate” parent-child relations and governmental programs for older people. On both kinds of measures, older people tend consistently to be least likely to adopt the “pro-elderly” position. This association is maintained when controls are introduced in multivariate analyses. Altruism, not self-interest, seems to govern the attitudes of the older generation in this sample. This finding should mitigate potential conflicts over issues of intergenerational equity and fairness, both within the family and in public policy.
Explaining Changes in Married Mothers’ Employment over Time
Authors: Leibowitz Arleen , Klerman Jacob Alex
Published: March 2007

Employment of married mothers with preschool children rose dramatically between 1971 and 1990. Using CPS data, we find that about one-fifth of the increase in labor supply can be attributed to changes in mothers’ demographic characteristics (age, education, and number of children). Changes in the earnings opportunities of new mothers and their husbands explain another one-fifth of the growth in employment. Over the two decades, infants up to three months old became less of a barrier to employment, while women’s labor supply became more sensitive to their own earnings opportunities and less sensitive to those of their husbands.
Cohort Trends in the Lifetime Distribution of Female Family Headship in the United States, 1968–1985
Authors: Moffitt Robert A. , Rendall Michael S.
Published: March 2007

We use the PSID Relationship File to estimate cohort trends in the lifetime incidence and duration of female family headship. Hazard (event-history) techniques are used to estimate movements into and out of headship, accounting for duration dependence and left-censored spells. The mean number of years spent in headship between ages 14 and 59 rose dramatically over the period. The increase arose from an increased number of headship spells, including an increase in the number of women ever experiencing headship, but not at all from an increase in durations of headship spells; those decreased slightly.
A Case Study on the Use of Multiple Imputation
Authors: Freedman Vicki A. , Wolf Douglas A.
Published: March 2007

Multiple imputation is a relatively new technique for dealing with missing values on items from survey data. Rather than deleting observations for which a value is missing, or assigning a single value to incomplete observations, one replaces each missing item with two or more values. Inferences then can be made with the complete data set. This paper presents an application of multiple imputation using the 1987–1988 National Survey of Families and Households. We impute several binary indicators of whether the respondent’s elderly mother/mother-in-law is married. Descriptive statistics are then presented for the sample of adult children with an unmarried mother or mother-in-law.
A mixture model for duration data: Analysis of second births in China
Authors: Li Lei , Choe Minja Kim
Published: March 2007

In this paper we introduce a mixture model in which we combine logistic regression and piecewise proportional hazards models for analysis of duration data. The model allows simultaneous estimation of two sets of effects of covariates: one of the probability of an event and the other of the timing of the event. We illustrate the application of the model through an analysis of the effects of women s characteristics and of the acceptance of a one-child certificate on the birth of second children in China. Both factors affect the probability of having a second child, but only the acceptance of a one-child certificate has a significant and strong effect on the second-birth interval.
The number of Israeli immigrants in the United States in 1990
Authors: Cohen Yinon , Haberfeld Yitchak
Published: March 2007

In this paper we estimate the size of several categories of “Israeli” immigrants in the United States. According to the 1990 U.S. census, there were about 95,000 Israeli-born immigrants in the United States in that year. Using the language and ancestry information available in the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) of the 1990 census, we estimate that of this total, about 80,000 are Jews and 15,000 are Palestinian Arabs born in Israel. In addition to the Israeli-born, we present a range for the number of Jewish immigrants from Israel who are not Israeli-born (about 30,000–56,000). Thus our estimate for the total number of Jewish immigrants from Israel in the United States in 1990 is between 110,000 and 135,000. Fertility information available in the PUMS, also enable us to provide estimates for the number of second-generation Israelis in the United States in the 1990 (about 42,000). Finally, using both the 1980 and 1990 PUMS, we provide estimates for the rate of return migration among Israeli-born Jewish immigrants in the United States.
Changing patterns of Internal Migration 1970–1990: A comparative analysis of jews and whites in The United States
Authors: Rebhun Uzi
Published: March 2007

Independently conducted yet complementary sets of data from the 1970/1971 and 1990 National Jewish Population Surveys and the U.S. censuses of the same changes in the internal migration of Jews and whites during the periods 1965–1970(1971) and 1985–1990. Interstate lifetime and five-year migration rates among Jews increased to levels significantly surpassing those of whites. Adjusting Jewish migration rates for the educational achievement of their white counterparts did not have much of an effect on lifetime migration or on the recent migration of the 1970/1971 Jewish population; however, it accounted meaningfully for the migration propensities of Jews in the period 1985–1990. These findings suggest that socioeconomic status has begun to play a larger role in promoting different migration patterns than in promoting ethnic group differences. Further, the direction of Jewish migrations followed those of whites (i.e., from the Northeast and Midwest to the South and West); and due to their higher migration rates, Jews have considerably narrowed the regional distribution differences between themselves and whites. I interpret these results as evidence of the weakening role of ethnicity in present-day America.
Measuring immigrant wage growth using matched CPS files
Authors: Duleep Harriet Orcutt , Regets Mark C.
Published: March 2007

Cross-sectional estimates of immigrant wage growth have painted an optimistic picture of the ability of immigrants to adapt to the U.S. labor market: Studies using cross-sectional data have generally found the wage growth of immigrants to exceed that of the native born. This optimistic picture of immigrant economic assimilation was challenged by the important finding that compared to earlier immigrant cohorts, recent immigrants started at much lower wages. As such, the high wage growth of immigrants relative to the native born measured in cross-sectional data may simply be the spurious result of declining immigrant earnings ability. In this paper, we match Current Population Survey samples so that the wages of individual immigrant and native-born men can be followed for one year. We find that the wage growth of immigrants does exceed that of the native born. The general finding of faster immigrant wage growth also holds when imposing the foreign-born geographic distribution upon natives, but not when imposing the native-born geographic distribution on the foreign born—a result consistent with some theories of immigrant assimilation. In each comparison, however, the actual wage growth of immigrants relative to natives is similar to the predictions of cross-sectional regressions. This similarity suggests that either there is no cohort quality bias in the cross-sectional estimates of immigrant wage growth, or that there has been a coincidental increase in immigrant wage growth as the entry wages of immigrants have fallen.
Measuring spatial focusing in a migration system
Authors: Plane David A. , Mulligan Gordon F.
Published: March 2007

Equality indexes used in other geographical contexts may be used to gauge the degree of spatial focusing in an entire migration system or within the gross in- and out-migration fields of specific regions. They provide useful indicators of overall shifts in the patterns of interregional migration and can help give insight into the population redistributive roles played by specific regions. Perhaps the most common equality index used to measure income distribution is the Gini coefficient, yet it appears almost never to have been applied in migration research. In this paper we set forth a variety of Gini indexes to be used for different migration analyses and illustrate their application with recent data on U.S. interstate movements. We argue that the Gini index provides some singularly useful insights that differ from those afforded by other measures more commonly found to date in the migration analyst’s toolkit.
Family dissolution, family reconstitution, and children’s educational careers: Recent evidence for Sweden
Authors: Jonsson Jan O. , Gähler Michael
Published: March 2007

Both longitudinal and cross-sectional analyses on a large and recent Swedish data set demonstrate that, compared to children in intact families, children who have experienced family dissolution or reconstitution show lower educational attainment at age 16. Time constraints do not seem to be an important mechanism behind the negative effect of separation. Economic deprivation affects children s attainment negatively, but downward social mobility appears to be an even more important causal mechanism: Losing the parent with the higher social position probably reduces social capital and aspirations. When we control for socioeconomic characteristics, a small net effect of separation and reconstitution remains.
Latino, Asian, and black segregation in U.S. metropolitan areas: Are multiethnic metros different*
Authors: Frey William H. , Farley Reynolds
Published: March 2007

This study examines 1990 residential segregation levels and 1980–1990 changes in segregation for Latinos, Asians, and blacks in U.S. metropolitan areas. It also evaluates the effect of emerging multiethnic metropolitan area contexts for these segregation patterns. While black segregation levels are still well above those for Latinos and Asians, there is some trend toward convergence over the decade. More than half of the areas increased their Latino segregation levels over the 1980s, and almost three-fourths increased their Asian segregation levels. In contrast, black segregation levels decreased in 88%ofmetropolitan areas. Multiethnic metropolitan area context is shown to be important for internal segregation dynamics. Black segregation levels are lower, and were more likely to decline in multiethnic metropolitan areas and when other minority groups grew faster than blacks. Latino segregation was also more likely to decline in such areas, and declines in both Latino and Asian segregation were greater when other minority groups were growing. These findings point up the potential for greater mixed-race and mixed-ethnicity coresidence in the neighborhoods of multiethnic metropolitan areas.
Immigration cohorts and residential overcrowding in southern California
Authors: Myers Dowell , Lee Seong Woo
Published: March 2007

To what degree do immigrants reduce their high rates of residential overcrowding with increasing length of residence in the United States? This question is addressed through the application of a “double cohort” method that nests birth cohorts within immigration cohorts. This method enables duration of immigration effects to be separated from aging effects as cohorts pass through life course phases, when family sizes may be growing or shrinking. The analysis finds that cohort trends differ sharply from the cross-sectional pattern observed at a single point in time. Cohorts’ growth in income is found to contribute substantially to the decline in overcrowding over time. Cohort trends among Hispanic immigrants, however, diverge from those among others, indicating much less decrease in overcrowding and even increases over certain age spans.
The influence of parents’ marital dissolutions on children’s attitudes toward family formation
Authors: Axinn William G. , Thornton Arland
Published: March 2007

We investigate the influence of parents’ marital dissolutions on their children’s attitudes toward several dimensions of family formation. Hypotheses focus on the role of parents’ attitudes as a mechanism linking parents’ behavior to their children’s attitudes. We test these hypotheses using intergenerational panel data that include measures of parents’ attitudes taken directly from parents and measures of children’s attitudes taken directly from children. Results demonstrate strong effects of parental divorce, remarriage, and widowhood on children’s attitudes toward premarital sex, cohabitation, marriage. childbearing, and divorce. The results also show that parents’ own attitudes link their behavior to their children’s attitudes, although substantial effects of parental behavior remain after controlling for parents’ attitudes.
Religion and fertility in the United States: New patterns
Authors: Mosher William D. , Williams Linda B. , Johnson David P.
Published: March 2007

In the United States, the baby boom-era pattern of high Catholic and low Protestant fertility has ended. Among non-Hispanic whites in the 1980s, Catholic total fertility rates (TFRs) were about one-quarter of a child lower than Protestant rates (1.64 vs. 1.91). Most of the Protestant-Catholic difference is related to later and less frequent marriage among Catholics. Future research on the demography of religious groups should focus on explaining the delayed marriage pattern of Catholics, the high fertility of Mormons and frequently attending Protestants, and the very low fertility of those with no religious affiliation.
Taxes and the Family: The impact of the tax exemption for dependents on marital fertility
Authors: Whittington Leslie A.
Published: March 2007

In this paper I use data from the Panel Study on Income Dynamics to examine the relationship between the dependent exemption feature of the United States federal income tax (an unambiguous subsidy to dependents) and the fertility behavior of married couples over the period 1979–1983. The exemption decreases the price of a child to a household, thus having a direct relationship to the timing and/or number of children observed in a family. Conditional logit results support this hypothesis by showing that the exemption has a positive and significant impact on the likelihood of having a birth during the period under study.
Age at last birth and its components
Authors: Suchindran C.M. , Koo Helen P.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the ways in which the behavior of twentieth century cohorts of American women changed simultaneously in the three components of fertility that determine age at last birth—age at first birth, spacing between subsequent births, and parity progression ratios of subsequent births—to produce changes in the timing of the completion of childbearing. It decomposes changes in the mean age at last birth among cohorts and between whites and nonwhites to changes in these three components. To perform these analyses, we developed and applied a method to estimate the distributions and means of ages at first and last births, birth intervals, and parity progression ratios from age- and parity-specific fertility rates available from vital statistics data. Results show that the cohorts increased and decreased their age at first birth, birth intervals, and parity progression ratios of lower and higher birth orders in almost every possible combination so as to achieve a relatively young age at final birth.
The Determinants of the Duration of Postpartum Sexual Abstinence in West Africa: A Multilevel Analysis
Authors: Benefo Kofi D.
Published: March 2007

The question of how postpartum sexual abstinence responds to social change in West Africa is important because declines in the practice could increase fertility levels and worsen child and maternal health. This study uses data from the late 1970s in Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Cameroon to examine effects of modernization and women’s status on the length of abstinence. The results show that modernization and female status should be associated with declines in abstinence, which could lead to an increase in fertility and deterioration in maternal and child health.
Demographic Foundations of Political Empowerment in Multiminority Cities
Authors: Clark William A. V. , Morrison Peter A.
Published: March 2007

As U.S. cities accommodate increasing ethnic and racial diversity, political choices may unify or divide their local populations. Those choices pull communities toward two different modes of pluralism: traditional “melting pot” assimilation or a complex mosaic of racial and ethnic assertiveness. Central to this issue is equity and empowerment, which may be accentuated by minority populations’ size, structure, and spatial concentration. We examine two potential modes of local empowerment: “dominance,” whereby each group is the majority of voters in single election districts (reinforcing separative tendencies), and “influence,” whereby a group gains “influential minority” status in several districts (reinforcing unifying tendencies).
Racial and Ethnic Differences in Birthweight: The Role of Income and Financial Assistance
Authors: Cramer James C.
Published: March 2007

This paper attempts to explain the differences in birthweight observed between blacks, white Anglos, Chicanos, and other racial and ethnic groups. The analysis focuses on the role of income and financial assistance from relatives and public programs. Using data from the NLS Youth Panel, I construct a causal model of birthweight containing exogenous social and demographic risk factors and intervening proximate determinants of birthweight. A substantial part of the gap in birthweight between white Anglos and other ethnic groups (especially blacks) can be explained by the unfavorable socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of the latter. On the other hand, blacks and other minorities smoke less and have other favorable proximate characteristics that depress differences in birthweight. When these proximate determinants are controlled, large ethic differences in birthweight remain unexplained by income and other sociodemographic factors.
Childhood Living Arrangements and Adult Children’s Relations with their Parents
Authors: Lye Diane N. , Klepinger Daniel H. , Hyle Patricia Davis , Nelson Anjanette
Published: March 2007

We examine the relationship of childhood living arrangements to adult child-parent relations. Compared with adult children raised in intact families, adult children whose parents divorced have less frequent contact with their parents and report a lower-quality relationship with their parents. We observe these negative effects for both custodial and noncustodial parents, although the effects are larger for noncustodial parents. Remarriage of the custodial parent tends to offset the the negative impacts of divorce on relations with the custodial parent and to amplify the negative impacts on relations with noncustodial parents. Further, the longer the adult child lived apart from the parent, the weaker are relations with noncustodial parents.
Sharing a Home: The Experiences of American Women and Their Parents over the Twentieth Century
Authors: Weinick Robin M.
Published: March 2007

Trends and determinants of daughter-parent coresidence over the twentieth century are examined by using the 1987-1988 National Survey of Families and Households. Young women from more recent birth cohorts leave their parents’ homes for the first time at earlier ages, but are more likely to make return trips home than those born earlier. Thus cohorts show remarkable consistency in the proportion of life lived in the parental home. For the 1900-1929 birth cohorts, daughters’ lifetime probability that a parent will move in with them is approximately 15%; younger cohorts show similar age-specific probabilities to date. Explanations for these trends are considered.
A Theory of the Value of Children
Authors: Friedman Debra , Hechter Michael , Kanazawa Satoshi
Published: March 2007

This paper uses a non-standard value assumption—uncertainty reduction—to explain parenthood. We begin by reviewing the inadequacies of normative and standard rational choice explanations of shifts in fertility behavior. Then we propose a theory of the value of children based on the uncertainty-reduction assumption. Next we generate a range of hypotheses that follow both from this assumption and from a subsidiary assumption of marital solidarity enhancement. Finally, we explore the extent to which implications based on these new ideas are supported by the relevant empirical literature.
A Multistate Model of Fecundability and Sterility
Authors: Wood James W. , Holman Darryl J. , Yashin Anatoli I. , Peterson Raymond J. , Weinstein Maxine , Chang Ming-Cheng
Published: March 2007

This paper develops a multistate hazards model for estimating fecundability and sterility from data on waiting times to conception. Important features of the model include separate sterile and nonsterile states, a distinction between preexisting sterility and sterility that begins after initiation of exposure, and log-normally distributed fecundability among nonsterile couples. Application of the model to data on first birth intervals from Taiwan, Sri Lanka, and the Amish shows that heterogeneity in fecundability is statistically significant at most ages, but that preexisting sterility and new sterility are unimportant before age 40. These results suggest that sterility may not be an important determinant of natural fertility until later reproductive ages.
Double Jeopardy: Interaction Effects of Marital and Poverty Status on the Risk of Mortality
Authors: Smith Ken R. , Waitzman Norman J.
Published: March 2007

The purpose of this paper is to examine the hypothesis that marital and poverty status interact in their effects on mortality risks beyond their main effects. This study examines the epidemiological bases for applying an additive rather than a multiplicative specification when testing for interaction between two discrete risk factors. We specifically predict that risks associated with being nonmarried and with being poor .interact to produce mortality risks that are greater than each risk acting independently. The analysis is based on men and women who were ages 25–74 during the 1971–1975 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey I (NHANES I) and who were traced successfully in the NHANES I Epidemiologic Follow-Up Study in 1982–1984. Overall, being both poor and nonmarried places nonelderly (ages 25–64) men, but not women, at risk of mortality greater than that expected from the main effects. This study shows that for all-cause mortality, marital and poverty status interact for men but less so for women; these findings exist when interaction is assessed with either a multiplicative or an additive standard. This difference is most pronounced for poor, widowed men and (to a lesser degree) poor, divorced men. For violent/accidental deaths among men, the interaction effects are large on the basis of an additive model. Weak main and interaction effects were detected for the elderly (age 65 +).
Nativity Concentration and Internal Migration among the Foreign-Born
Authors: Kritz Mary M. , Nogle June Marie
Published: March 2007

Are immigrants who live in states where large numbers of their compatriots reside more or less likely to migrate than those who live in other states? Using 1980 U.S. Census data to address that question, the analysis shows that nativity concentration deters interstate migration but not migration within the same state. Residing in a state where fellow nationals live is a more important determinant of internal migration than human capital, immigration status, or a state’s unemployment rate. New York State residence in 1975 also promotes interstate migration. This research suggests that social dimensions should be taken into account in modeling internal migration of the foreign-born.
On the Measurement of Naturalization
Authors: Liang Zai
Published: March 2007

This paper proposes a new way of measuring naturalization, which takes into account both emigration and death. I argue that the new method corrects for underestimation and thus provides a more accurate measure of the concept. Using data from six groups of the 1973 immigrant cohort and multiple-decrement life table techniques, I estimated and compared naturalization measures derived from new and old methods. The results show that failure to control for emigration has a significant effect on the measurement of naturalization, particularly if an immigrant group has relatively high rate of emigration. Some further substantive implications of this new method are also explored.
In Search of Asian War Brides
Authors: Saenz Rogelio , Hwang Sean-Shong , Aguirre Benigno E.
Published: March 2007

Because of the long presence of U.S. soldiers in Asia, war-bride marriages involving servicemen and Asian women have been formed throughout the century. The literature, however, contains little empirically sound information on Asian war brides. This analysis develops a methodology to identify war brides and applies it to estimate the number of war brides from the six major Asian groups, using the national 1980 Public Use Microdata Sample. Further analysis comparing Asian war brides with other groups of Asian wives tends to support the traditional and lower socioeconomic images commonly associated with Asian war brides.
Economic opportunity in mexico and return migration from the United States
Authors: Lindstrom David P.
Published: March 2007

I analyze the influence of the economic characteristics of origin area on trip duration for Mexican migrants in the United States. I argue that migrants from economically dynamic areas in Mexico with favorable opportunities for employment and small capital investment have a larger incentive to stay in the United States longer and to withstand the psychic costs of separation from family and friends than do migrants from economically stagnant areas in Mexico, where the productive uses of savings are severely limited. In line with this argument we should expect investment opportunities in migrants’ origin areas to be associated positively with migrants’ trip duration in the United States. To test this hypothesis I use individual- and household-level data on U.S migration experience collected in 13 Mexican communities. Evidence from parametric hazards models supports the idea that economic characteristics of origin areas influence the motivations and strategies of Mexican migrants in the United States.
Reconsidering the increase in father-only families
Authors: Garasky Steven , Meyer Daniel R.
Published: March 2007

Previously reported estimates of rapid growth rates among father-only families did not account for cohabitation. An explicit treatment of cohabitation removes about half of the presumed growth. Nevertheless, we find that the number of father-only families grew at more than double the rate of mother-only families during the 1980s. Decomposition analyses show that the largest factor associated with the increase is that fathers now head a greater proportion of all formerly married single-parent families with children. Although the share of single-parent families headed by fathers is larger in 1990 than in 1980 even after controlling for cohabitation, it is smaller than in 1970.
Geographic mobility of scientists: Sex differences and family constraints
Authors: Shauman Kimberlee A. , Xie Yu
Published: March 2007

Women scientists are much more likely than men scientists to be in two-career marriages. This study examines the argument that the higher prevalence of two-career marriages among women scientists presents a significant impediment to their geographic mobility. Three hypotheses are developed and tested. First. scientists in two-career families are less likely to migrate than scientists in one-career families. Second, the effect of two-career marriages on the probability of migration differs with gender; women are affected more negatively. Third, the effect of children on the probability of migration differs with gender; women are affected more negatively. The empirical work uses a data set of doctoral scientists extracted from the 5% Public Use Microdata Sample from the 1990 census. The first two hypotheses are not confirmed by the empirical results. but we find evidence supporting the third. Family constraints on women scientists’ careers generally appear to be weak. but become acute when they have children.
Compromised birth outcomes and infant mortality among racial and ethnic groups
Authors: Frisbie W. Parker , Forbes Douglas , Pullum Starling G.
Published: March 2007

Research based on hospital records demonstrates that many births classified as normal according to conventional demographic measurement are intrauterine growth-retarded (IUGR) when evaluated clinically; also, in addition to birth weight and gestational age, it is necessary to focus on a third dimension, maturity, in analyses of birth outcomes. Although clinical studies allow more precise classification, the small number of cases tends to result in unreliable estimates of rates and in loss of genera lizability. The fetal growth ratio, a measure recently shown to be a valid proxy for maturity, is used here to develop a classification system based on combinations of weight, gestational age, and maturity, which we apply in a comparative analysis of a large data set. The results show large differences in the distribution of compromised births across racial and ethnic groups, as well as significant race/ethnic differentials in the risk of infant mortality associated with adverse outcomes.
The effect of the sex composition of jobs on starting wages in an organization: Findings from the NLSY
Authors: England Paula , Reid Lori L. , Kilbourne Barbara Stanek
Published: March 2007

We show that individuals in a job with a higher percentage of females earn lower starting wages with an employing organization. This holds true with controls for individuals’ human capital, job demands for skill or difficult working conditions, and detailed industry. We use a measure of sex composition that applies to detailed jobs: cells in a three-digit census occupation by three-digit census industry matrix. We use pooled panel data from the 1979–1987 waves of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. The unit of analysis is the spell—the time in which a person worked for one organization. The dependent variable is the first wage in the spell. We use models with fixed-effects to control for unmeasured, unchanging individual characteristics; we also show results from OLS and weighted models for comparison. The negative effect on wages of the percentage female in one’s job is robust across procedures for black women, white women, and white men. For black men the sign is always negative but the coefficient is often nonsignificant.
A Sensitivity Analysis of Repeat Migration Attrition in the Study of Migrant Adjustment: The Case of Bangkok
Authors: Yang Xiushi
Published: March 2007

Studies of migrant adjustment often conclude that results apply only to remaining migrants. This paper examines the potential bias in using the difference between remaining migrants and natives as a measure of migrant adjustment. The results document that differences between remaining migrants and natives contain bias caused by attrition due to repeat migration. Such bias is small, however, and is unlikely to change migrant-native comparisons. Unless one is concerned with details of differences between migrants and natives, it is unnecessary to be concerned about migration attrition bias in drawing conclusions from the observed differences.
The Persistence of High Fertility in the American South on the Eve of the Baby Boom
Authors: Tolnay Stewart E. , Glynn Patricia J.
Published: March 2007

Pockets of high fertility persisted in some areas of the American South through the Great Depression. Most other areas of the country adopted modem fertility patterns considerably earlier in the century; these “laggard” areas are clear exceptions to the national demographic revolution in family building. In this paper we attempt to identify the factors that account for the persistently high fertility in some southern regions. We use county-level data for 1940 to assess the utility of three theoretical models of fertility: structural, diffusion-innovation, and health. Differences by race are also considered, in view of the distinctly different histories of whites and African-Americans in the south. Our findings suggest that unicausal explanations for the persistence of high fertility are too simplistic; all three theoretical perspectives receive empirical support. Considerable similarity is observed in the findings for blacks and for whites. Yet important differences also emerge, especially the more powerful effects of structural variables on white fertility. We conclude that the evidence indicates the need for “diversity” in the study of demographic behavior. Not only should we examine a variety of causal mechanisms for demographic phenomena; we also should consider the varying utility of those mechanisms across different social groups.
The Impact of Child Care on Fertility in Urban Thailand
Authors: Richter Kerry , Podhisita Chai , Chamratrithirong Aphichat , Soonthorndhada Kusol
Published: March 2007

Women’s labor force participation in Thailand, particularly in the modem sector, recently has increased in conjunction with rapid declines in fertility. This paper examines whether a relationship exists between child care considerations and fertility decision making among Bangkok women. Although the two-child family has become the norm in recent years, and although most respondents said that ideally they would like to have two children, a high proportion of women surveyed said they planned to only have one child. Women’s work status and type of employment is found to strongly affect the likelihood of having a second birth: those who work at jobs that not only are low-paying but are located in a formal setting are least likely to have a second child. The type of child care for the first child also has an impact: those whose first child is in a less preferred situation are less likely to have a second. Variables measuring the need for and type of child care are found to have greater consequences for fertility than do usual measures of socioeconomic status.
The Link between Population Density and Welfare Participation
Authors: Rank Mark R. , Hirschl Thomas A.
Published: March 2007

This article explores a neglected topic in the social welfare, poverty, and demographic literatures—the link between population density and welfare participation in the United States. Longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics are used to meet two objectives: first, to test whether a relationship exists between population density and use of the food stamp program among eligible households; second, to explore the potential reasons for such a relationship. Our findings show that population density has a strong, positive impact on the likelihood of participating in the food stamp program. Low-income respondents in urban areas are significantly more likely to use food stamps in both an aggregate and a multivariate context. In analyzing the dynamic underlying such an effect, we find that those in urban areas are more likely to possess accurate eligibility information and to hold less adverse attitudes toward the use of welfare. These factors in turn increase the likelihood of food stamp participation.
Changing Identification among American Indians and Alaska Natives
Authors: Eschbach Karl
Published: March 2007

The census-enumerated American Indian population dispersed rapidly between 1930 and 1990. Changes in ethnic classification account for most of the change. In the 1980 count, 10 states with historically large Indian populations account for 53% of births of Indians between the ages of 10 and 80, compared with 72% of the first enumerations of the same cohorts. Migration further reduced the share of these states to 46% of Indian residents in these cohorts. Study of the dispersal of the Indian population should focus primarily on the new emergence of the expression of Indian identity, rather than on migration from former population centers.