Increasing Resolution of Seismic Hazard Mapping on the Example of the North of Middle Russian Highland
Authors: Movchan Igor B. , Shaygallyamova Zilya I. , Yakovleva Alexandra A. , Movchan Alexander B. 
Published: June 2021

The standard problem of engineering geophysics, solved for road and house building and other construction types, is in the localization of areas with increased mobility in the upper part of a geological cross-section and in the parameterization of this mobility in terms of seismic intensity. There is a standard approach, according to which researchers assess the elastic strength characteristics of the core to a depth of about 30 m, implement the accumulation of seismogram observations, simulate accelerograms for particular conditions and, taking into account the data of complex geophysical methods, calculate the increment of seismic intensity as one of the parameters of a seismic hazard. The final result of this approach has the form of a seismogenic hazard map and a set of recommendations including the consideration of identified areas with a significant increasing seismic intensity increment, due to the peculiarities of the geological structure of polygons. This result is reliable, but very expensive, and requires the development of primary estimations of the rock massif with reduced resistance to external loads, which would optimize the efforts in engineering drilling and in field geophysical measurements in order to densify their spatial grid in the vicinity of a priori known positions with an increased seismogenic hazard. In addition, relatively sparse grids of wells, as well as local geophysical profiles laid under conditions of a complicated landscape, do not accurately localize risky areas in order to focus the attention of builders on strengthening the specific part of raised constructions. Following the wishes of our customers and relying on long-term testing of our interpretational developments, we formed an approach to primary hazard forecasting based on remote sensing data and digital elevation models, which can be classified as data with relatively free access. This article presents the results of research which was based on these free-of-charge data and which was developed in the field of construction of ground engineering structures for agricultural purposes, where one of the factors of mobility in the upper part of a cross-section is intensive karstification. Basically, the construction area according to the general seismic zoning maps is seismologically passive, though the relatively fast dynamics of karst determines the relevance of the detailed seismic zoning. The results of our interpretations are verified by deep geological and structural reconstructions based on wave analogies. The representativeness of the final forecast was confirmed by subsequent seismic assessments, which is related to the scientific novelty of the presented article. The authors’ technology for the qualitative and quantitative interpretation of remote sensing data and digital elevation models with high resolution provides the opportunity to increase the spatial resolution of seismic microzonation forecasts, implemented by standard geophysical methods, and it determines the practical significance of completed research.