bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Abordagens interculturais da educação no Cazaquistão: grande distancia entre desenvolvimento teórico e realização
Authors: Seidikenova Almash , Temirova Assem , Akkari Abdeljalil , Aitkali Bakitov
Published: May 2020

Cet article est issu d’une recherche conjointe effectuée par une équipe Suisse et Kazakhe pour explorer les enjeux de la diversité culturelle dans le secteur de l’éducation. Dans un premier temps, l’article explore la spécificité historique de la diversité culturelle au Kazakhstan. Dans un second temps, nous proposons une analyse de la notion de trilinguisme expérimentée dans ce pays asiatique en transition post-soviétique. Ensuite, la troisième partie de l’article présente différents concepts théoriques utilisés dans le contexte Kazakh pour étudier la diversité culturelle. Enfin, l’article présente les orientations des enseignants chercheurs de deux facultés d’une université Kazakhe à propos de l’enseignement multi-interculturel.
Wprowadzenie
Authors: Churski Paweł
Published: May 2020

Wprowadzenie
Miejsce parków naukowo-technologicznych w innowacyjnym środowisku regionalnym
Authors: Marszałek Anna
Published: May 2020

Parki naukowo-technologiczne (PNT) odgrywają coraz większą rolę w gospodarce opartej na wiedzy i przyczyniają się do zachodzenia istotnych przemian w środowisku innowacyjnym. Celem artykułu jest wskazanie miejsca, jakie zajmują w innowacyjnym środowisku regionalnym. Autorka rozpoczyna rozważania od przedstawienia krótkiej charakterystyki PNT, by kolejno przejść do opisu modeli ich funkcjonowania. Szczególne miejsce w artykule poświęcono analizie firm zorientowanych na tworzenie nowych technologii, które są lokalizowane w PNT. Autorka stara się wskazać, jak ich stale wzrastające znaczenie przyczynia się do zwiększenia dynamiki rozwojowej środowiska innowacyjnego. Jedną z konsekwencji tego działania jest poprawa efektywności lokalnej ekonomii, na której powinno zależeć wszystkim funkcjonującym na danym obszarze interesariuszom.
Rozwój gospodarczy najmniejszych miast w województwie zachodniopomorskim
Authors: Cudo Mateusz
Published: May 2020

Artykuł ma na celu określenie poziomu rozwoju gospodarczego najmniejszych miast w  województwie zachodniopomorskim na podstawie zmian wybranych wskaźników w czasie. Dotyczy tych ośrodków, których liczba ludności w badanym okresie – między rokiem 2002 a 2016 – wynosiła poniżej 2 tys. osób. Zawarte w pracy dane statystyczne pochodzą z Banku Danych Lokalnych GUS oraz materiałów urzędowych poszczególnych ośrodków. W badaniach wykorzystano wskaźnik syntetyczny jako sumę standaryzowanych wskaźników cząstkowych, metodę analizy podobieństwa według procedury Mc Quitty’ego oraz metodę analizy skupień Warda. Otrzymane rezultaty wskazują, że mimo dokonanych inwestycji i inicjatyw oddolnych o rozwoju gospodarczym można mówić jedynie w przypadku Tuczna i Morynia, dla których wartość wskaźnika syntetycznego znacząco wzrosła. Tuczno wyróżnia dobrze rozwinięty rynek pracy i wysoki udział średnich przedsiębiorstw w strukturze gospodarki, co świadczy o jego odrębności i większym podobieństwie do małych miast powiatowych. Pozostałe ośrodki cechują się znacznym stopniem podobieństwa – mają ograniczone zasoby lokalne, a ich funkcja w głównej mierze sprowadza się do zapewnienia dostępu do podstawowych usług publicznych w ramach infrastruktury administracyjnej i społecznej. Dominuje w nich drobna działalność gospodarcza z zakresu handlu czy budownictwa, a w Suchaniu i Ińsku także przetwórstwa. W ostatnim czasie w najbardziej niekorzystnej sytuacji gospodarczej znalazły się Nowe Warpno oraz Cedynia, które wymagają interwencji z zewnątrz, aby wytworzyć mechanizmy nowej ścieżki rozwoju.
Prehistoric mining
Authors: Kerig Tim
Published: May 2020

Prehistoric copper mining in the north-east of the Iberian Peninsula continues the previous work on copper mining by the editors and main authors N. Rafel Fontanals, M.A. Hunt Ortiz, I. Soriano and S. Delgado-Raack. The site La Turquesa, a deposit mainly of Gossan type (iron cap), belongs to the same fault zone and mining basin as the already published Solano del Bepo (Rafel Fontanals et al. 2017). Mining of copper and lead (galena) at the site cannot certainly be traced back into prehistory, let alone to the Neolithic, and the earliest radiometric dates point to mining beginning before the early Middle Ages. The typo-chronology of mining tools is inconclusive, as is usual at these sites, and as the reader may infer from the comprehensive 80-page catalogue of hammerstones and picks. In his archaeo-metallurgical chapter, Montero Ruiz concludes convincingly that, currently, the most reliable date for mining at La Turquesa is in the Copper Age or the Early Bronze Age: the isotope signature of the mine's ore seems to accord with isotope ratios measured in a handful of artefacts from that period. The geology and mineralogy of the deposit is instructively summarised, adding archaeologically relevant information on visibility, accessibility and workability (with A. Andreazini and J.C. Melgarejo as co-authors). Traces of prehistoric opencast copper mining in small and irregular shafts have been heavily damaged by nineteenth- or twentieth-century mining of turquoise and variscite (with accessory chalcopyrite and malachite). The archaeological documentation of shafts and galleries from recent and pre-industrial times is cursory and does not fully attend to the three-dimensionality of the deposit. The use of more up-to-date measurement technology would have offered a clearer understanding of the site in its excavation, analysis and publication. No traces of tools were documented, making it impossible to combine the mineralogy of the deposit with the practical mining work. Without any quantitative information on heap material the mine's productivity cannot be estimated. The discovery of evidence for fire-setting using thermoluminescence (detailed in the chapter by A.L. Rodrigues et al.) seemed a promising test for archaeological hypotheses. Unfortunately, the palynological sediment sample gives a terminus ante quem of the seventh or eighth century AD (chapter by S. Pérez Díaz and J.A. López Sáez). Alongside unpublished indeterminate pottery, 117 mining tools are described in detail (including use-wear, lithology and surface types). Comparison with material from nearby Solana del Bepo (Rafel Fontanals et al. 2017) reveals that the artefacts from La Turquesa are less sophisticated and more opportunistic: mainly hammerstones modified during use or simple picks, sometimes with a picked groove that indicates hafting. Delgado-Raack argues convincingly that the tools were used in a context of direct extraction, for crushing the rock as well as for fragment-crushing copper ore at the site.
The Coming Transformation in the Muslim World
Authors: Eickelman Dale F.
Published: May 2020

Buzzwords such as ‘fundamentalism’ and catchy phrases such as Samuel Huntington's ‘West versus the rest’…obscure or even distort the immense spiritual and intellectual ferment that is taking place today among the world's nearly 1 billion Muslims.
Democracy and Its Discontents in Fujimori's Peru
Authors: Palmer David Scott
Published: May 2020

The government and its supporters have concluded that Peru's continued success depends on continuity at the presidential helm. Opponents believe that five more years of President Alberto Fujimori is a recipe for disaster.
The Hall of Mirrors: The Internet in Latin America
Authors: Gómez Ricardo
Published: May 2020

Latin American Internet users, like those in the developed world, “may be merely surfing the labyrinth of the Library of Babel dreamt by Borges: a library in which the contents matter far less than the apparent infinity of its holdings.”
Living in the Past: Franjo Tudjman's Croatia
Authors: Hedl Drago
Published: May 2020

Croatian President Franjo Tudjman “was a historian who strayed into politics, whose compatriots have already demonstrated how much he strayed into history as a politician; only several weeks after his death they turned their backs on his party, showing that normal life is much more than just making a thousand-year-old dream of an independent state come true.”
Kosovo: “Nobody's Country”
Authors: Cohen Lenard J.
Published: May 2020

Had the international community given more careful attention to the consequences a bombing campaign would have on ethnic relations in Kosovo—or at least made adequate preparations to rapidly police the area following such a campaign—the province's present ethnic segmentation and probable monoethnic future might have been avoided.
Pipeline Politics in Chad
Authors: Rosenblum Peter
Published: May 2020

Chad has come to the center of international attention as the World Bank, international oil companies, and NGOs struggle over the development of the country's oil reserves.… The results will affect not only Chad's future but also the future of other countries dealing with issues of accountability and development in the face of multinational corporations and world financial institutions.
Nigeria: The Politics of Marginalization
Authors: Ibelema Minabere
Published: May 2020

Jostling for power by Nigeria's myriad ethnic groups has, for better and for worse, driven the country's political development since before independence from Britain in 1960. What is new is a rhetoric of the impossible: the marginalization of everyone.
The Politics of China's Accession to the WTO
Authors: Fewsmith Joseph
Published: May 2020

China's position shifted … in early 1999 to a more active and determined effort to join the WTO. From a broad perspective, China's leadership had determined that globalization was unstoppable and that China could either join the trend or be left behind.
China, America, and Missile Defense: Conflicting National Interests
Authors: Godwin Paul H. B. , Medeiros Evan S.
Published: May 2020

“The United States and China must engage in some deep soul searching. What type of strategic stability does the United States seek with China? Is China a large rogue state whose strategic forces must be neutered by defensive systems, or is it a small Russia where strategic stability is achieved through mutual deterrence?”
Through a Distorted Lens: Chechnya and the Western Media
Authors: Lieven Anatol
Published: May 2020

The media, along with human rights groups and the great majority of politicians and political commentators, have repeatedly called for a ‘political solution’ or a ‘peaceful solution’ to the Chechen war without ever detailing what that solution should be, or how it can be achieved. … This kind of approach may make everyone feel good about themselves, but it is also profoundly irresponsible.
The Energy Question, Again
Authors: Smil Vaclav
Published: May 2020

Abundant, inexpensive, and reliable energy is taken for granted, and the citizens of rich countries seem to expect this to continue indefinitely. Reality is different: this veritable fairytale is threatened by many changes—some of which are already upon us, others that are discernible on the horizon.
The Global State of Democracy
Authors: Diamond Larry
Published: May 2020

The progress of democracy in the world over the last quarter-century has been nothing less than remarkable. … But if the reach of democracy is greater than ever, it is also thinner and more vulnerable.
Camp David II: Assumptions and Consequences
Authors: Telhami Shibley
Published: May 2020

The framing of issues between Israel and the Palestinians in religious terms, fueled by the question of Jerusalem, has led to the beginning of a transformation that has begun to mobilize Arabs within Israel, and Arabs and Muslims worldwide. Increasingly the conflict is no longer only Palestinian-Israeli, but also Arab-Israeli, and even Muslim-Jewish.
Mexico's Long March to Democracy
Authors: Conger Lucy
Published: May 2020

The story of the election of Mexico's first opposition president in 71 years is also the story of the birth of an increasingly energized civil society and the missteps of an intransigent and sclerotic ruling party.
Defining the “Bolivarian Revolution”: Hugo Chávez's Venezuela
Authors: McCoy Jennifer , Neuman Laura
Published: May 2020

Hugo Chávez has taken on the mantle of the people's will. He has also taken on an ever-larger share of political power and shown an increasing interest in spreading his “Bolivarian revolution” to the downtrodden in nearby Colombia, Ecuador, and Bolivia.
Why Peace Won't Come to Kashmir
Authors: Evans Alexander
Published: May 2020

An assortment of views are held about what different segments of Kashmiri society might want, if they could truly choose. But a solution to the problem of Kashmir remains in the hands of three distinct players: the Kashmiris, and the governments of India and Pakistan.
Cracks in the Wall: China's Eroding Coercive State
Authors: Tanner Murray Scot
Published: May 2020

China's coercive system still shows a capacity to suppress individuals deemed threatening to the state. Beneath the surface, this system is facing unprecedented challenges to central control, effectiveness, and discipline, all of which could produce a growing crisis of governability for Beijing.
The United States and China: Rhetoric and Reality
Authors: Bachman David
Published: May 2020

The rhetoric of the Bush administration can be seen as part of the “positioning” process as one party replaces the other in the presidency, working hard to show it is breaking with the past before it moves in the direction of the prior administration. But such a sanguine conclusion appears premature.
Terror in the Name of God
Authors: Juergensmeyer Mark
Published: May 2020

What is striking about the World Trade Center assault and many other recent acts of religious terrorism is that they have no obvious military goal. … They are a kind of perverse performance of power meant to ennoble the perpetrators' views of the world and to draw us into their notions of cosmic war.
An Interview with Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga
Authors: Murphy Sean Patrick
Published: May 2020

As the european union begins to expand eastward, nato has announced that it will decide next year whether to expand into the former Soviet republics of Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia. Earlier this year, Current History consulting editor Sean Patrick Murphy interviewed visiting Latvian President Vaira Vike-Freiberga in Washington, D.C. about Latvia's possible entry into nato and the implications for Latvia's relationship with Russia. An edited transcript of the interview follows.
Nasty, Brutish, and Long: America's War on Terrorism
Authors: Daalder Ivo H. , Lindsay James M.
Published: May 2020

A critical question as the United States enters this new ‘cold war’ is whether it has learned the lessons of the last—or whether it is destined to repeat its mistakes.
Why America? The Globalization of Civil War
Authors: Crenshaw Martha
Published: May 2020

Terrorism should be seen as a strategic reaction to American power in the context of a globalized civil war. Extremist religious beliefs play a role in motivating terrorism, but they also display an instrumental logic.
Bin Laden, the Arab “Street,” and the Middle East's Democracy Deficit
Authors: Eickelman Dale F.
Published: May 2020

Bin Laden speaks in the vivid language of popular Islamic preachers, and builds on a deep and widespread resentment against the West and local ruling elites identified with it. The lack of formal outlets to express opinion on public concerns has created [a] democracy deficit in much of the Arab world, and this makes it easier for terrorists such as bin Laden, asserting that they act in the name of religion, to hijack the Arab street.
Osama bin Laden as Transnational Revolutionary Leader
Authors: Katz Mark N.
Published: May 2020

Although the same ‘root causes’ that helped previous transnational revolutionary leaders have also aided Osama bin Laden, he also faces the same obstructing factors they did, and thus his grandiose revolutionary ambitions are failing too.
Global Petro-Politics: The Foreign Policy Implications of the Bush Administration's Energy Plan
Authors: Klare Michael T.
Published: May 2020

The United States cannot increase its intake of foreign oil by 50 percent, as called for under the Bush energy plan, without involving itself in the political, economic, and military affairs of the states from which all this petroleum is expected to flow. This involvement may take financial and diplomatic forms in most cases, but it will also often entail military action.
India, Pakistan, and the Prospect of War
Authors: Evans Alexander
Published: May 2020

India seized an opportunity in December 2001. In escalating a crisis into a global drama, Prime Minister Vajpayee and his colleagues took a calculated risk. Has it worked?
Osama bin Laden's “Business” in Sudan
Authors: Lesch Ann M.
Published: May 2020

What was the importance of the Sudanese sojourn for Osama bin Laden? One can argue that, without the sanctuary in Sudan, the Arabs who had fought in Afghanistan would have dispersed. Some would have gone home; others would have scattered in exile. Over time, their strength would have waned and they would have had difficulty communicating and coordinating their efforts. … Without Sudan, bin Laden could not have incubated the networks that have caused such devastation in subsequent years.
Sino-American Relations since September 11: Can the New Stability Last?
Authors: Shambaugh David
Published: May 2020

Although Taiwan, missile proliferation, missile defense, and the American military presence in Asia and Central Asia have the potential to upset Sino-American relations over the next year, the current stability is reason for cautious optimism. … Neither country needs or seeks a deterioration of relations or a return to the roller coaster of the 1990s. Indeed, both are otherwise preoccupied.
Waiting for China's Lech Walesa
Authors: Wasserstrom Jeffrey N.
Published: May 2020

Has the Chinese body politic finally been infected by what Beijing officials have sometimes dubbed the ‘Polish disease’…? Could China's 2002 turn out to be like Poland's 1981, a turning-point year when cleansing fevers (to invert the medical metaphor) began to take effect?
China's War on “Cults”
Authors: Kindopp Jason
Published: May 2020

China's leaders are well aware of the dangers of precipitating a Falun Gong–style campaign against another religious group, and appear eager to avoid doing so. Stung by the Falun Gong's tenacity and exhausted by the extraordinary measures required to flog its adherents into submission, they no longer have any illusions about the difficulty of wiping out religious groups that specialize in producing righteous martyrs. …
Xinjiang: China's Future West Bank?
Authors: Gladney Dru
Published: May 2020

Not unlike Hong Kong (which under the one-country, two-systems formula continues to fly its own flag), the unique situation in Xinjiang calls for dramatic and creative solutions. The future of this region, which the American sinologist Owen Lattimore once called the ‘pivot of Asia,’ depends on it.
China and Pakistan: Strains in the Relationship
Authors: Hagerty Devin T.
Published: May 2020

Although the American war on terrorism has altered the regional landscape, “China and Pakistan continue to derive substantial value from their close relationship. For Islamabad, Beijing remains its most steadfast friend in international affairs. United States interest in Pakistan waxes and wanes, but China has proved itself to be in Pakistan's corner over the long haul.”
Sino-Japanese Relations: Competition and Cooperation
Authors: Lemco Jonathan , MacDonald Scott B.
Published: May 2020

Many analysts choose to focus on the points of contention between the Asian giants. This is perfectly understandable, for China's industries will grow and compete with Japan's worldwide, and Japan's more assertive military will complicate China's foreign policy goals. But the tensions are only half the story.
America in Eurasia: One Year After
Authors: Cornell Svante E.
Published: May 2020

American engagement with the countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia needs to be clear and predictable. The United States has the potential to play an important stabilizing role in the region, but as long as uncertainty surrounds its commitment, America's role may instead be destabilizing if other powers try to test its determination to remain engaged.
Activism and Reform in Islam
Authors: Norton Augustus Richard
Published: May 2020

Largely missing from American discussions about Islam is any appreciation of the debates within Islam and the widely variant interpretations by Muslims of their own religion. Beyond the core belief shared by all Muslims that there is only one God and Muhammad was the messenger of God, there are many ‘Islams,’ depending on locale, education, custom, politics, and personal attitudes.
Hard Choices: National Security and the War on Terrorism
Authors: Daalder Ivo H. , Lindsay James M. , Steinberg James B.
Published: May 2020

The administration's National Security Strategy forthrightly commits to ‘fighting terrorists and tyrants’ and ‘encouraging free and open societies on every continent.’ What it ignores is that these two goals often conflict. … Which should take priority: America's commitment to its ideals, or a concern for its safety? … The strategy offers no advice on how to answer these questions.
Tilting at Dominos: America and Al Qaeda in Southeast Asia
Authors: Kurlantzick Joshua
Published: May 2020

American officials have turned their attention toward Southeast Asian policymaking— something largely ignored since the end of the Vietnam War—and have declared Southeast Asia the ‘second front’ in the global campaign against terror. … [But] backing Southeast Asia's often brutal and compromised militaries, which themselves contain elements linked to Islamist radicals, will only boost human rights abuses, breeding popular resentment and setting the stage for more terror.
Good-Bye to the Washington Consensus?
Authors: Mahon James E.
Published: May 2020

Latin Americans might have expected, after following the free-market economic policies of the ‘Washington consensus’ for a dozen years, that the region would have begun to savor the fruits of openness. But with some exceptions—notably Chile, Costa Rica, and much of Mexico—the fruit has turned out to be bitter, as economic openness appears to have accelerated social disintegration.
“Cutting the Wire”: The Landless Movement in Brazil
Authors: Rocha Jan
Published: May 2020

The emergence at the end of the twentieth century of a mass organization of landless peasants demanding land reform can only be understood when viewed against Brazil's archaic land structure, where 1 percent of landowners own 46 percent of the land and government inspectors are still discovering slave labor on Amazon cattle ranches.
Putting NATO Back Together Again
Authors: Kay Sean
Published: May 2020

nato's new enlargement will further complicate the workings of an alliance that is already politically unmanageable, militarily dysfunctional, and strategically irrelevant.
Madagascar: A New Democracy?
Authors: Marcus Richard R. , Razafindrakoto Paul
Published: May 2020

Despite the volatile politics of 2002 … Madagascar did not undergo a radical change of government. At no point was an attempt made to fundamentally change the nature of the system or to uproot the ancien régime. Only a courageous individual could break with this long history and turn power over to democratic institutions. Whether Madagascar's new president has this will remains a question.
Hong Kong and the Limits of People Power
Authors: Ching Frank
Published: May 2020

Hong Kong has little choice but to try to make the one country, two systems formula work. The alternative is not independence but absorption into the mainland's political system.
The Empire's New Frontiers
Authors: Klare Michael T.
Published: May 2020

The United States … wants to enhance its own strategic position in south-central Eurasia, much as Great Britain attempted in the late nineteenth century. This effort encompasses anti-terrorism and the pursuit of oil, but many in Washington also see it as an end in itself—as the natural behavior of a global superpower engaged in global dominance.
The Counsel of Geopolitics
Authors: Khanna Parag
Published: May 2020

America's ‘exceptionalism’—its hope of defeating the cycles of history—hinges on using power now to permanently change the rules of the geopolitical game in everyone's favor, including America's own.
The Reluctant Nation Builders
Authors: Sorensen Alan
Published: May 2020

The largely unilateral, dubiously rationalized, and defiantly prosecuted occupation of Iraq has distracted from the need to develop international consensus and capacity for nation building and other benevolent interventions. What the world needs now … is possibly a new multilateral organization or two specialized in peacekeeping and state-building operations.
Radical Islam, Liberal Islam
Authors: Khan M. A. Muqtedar
Published: May 2020

It is in the battle for Islam's soul that the United States and liberal Islam share a common strategic goal: the systematic dismantlement and delegitimization of the rogue Islamist discourse that portrays America as an anti-Islam crusader and Islam as an ideology of hate and violence.
Nuclear Terrorism: Why Deterrence Still Matters
Authors: Castillo Jasen J.
Published: May 2020

Although policy makers worry about the use of weapons of mass destruction against the United States, we should recognize that terrorist organizations have shown a remarkable tendency to fall back on well-tested conventional methods of attack. … Deterrence, when measured against prevention, still maintains enough credibility to prevent rogue states from sharing nuclear weapons with terrorists.
Broadening Democracy: Latin America's Indigenous Peoples' Movements
Authors: Van Cott Donna Lee
Published: May 2020

Indigenous peoples' movements have transcended their status as objects of government policy, or as a passing fad that grabbed attention as a colorful cultural phenomenon. They have converted themselves into a resilient, cohesive political force with the power to determine political outcomes.
New Europe Meets the Euro
Authors: Eichengreen Barry
Published: May 2020

Adopting the euro will have costs for the so-called accession economies, but so would shunning the euro. In fact, there are compelling reasons to think that adopting the euro will be less costly than the other monetary options available to the countries of ‘new’ Europe.
India and America: Estranged No More
Authors: Adhikari Gautam
Published: May 2020

A growing awareness of India's economic and strategic potential has led to serious revaluation in the United States of the India relationship.
Gloomy Burmese Days
Authors: Kurlantzick Joshua
Published: May 2020

The optimism surrounding the possibility of a democratic thaw in 2002 “was a mirage, a blip distracting attention from a more depressing long-term trend. … Burma's Asian neighbors, including democracies India and Thailand, increasingly are giving the junta free rein to dominate politics and abuse the citizenry.
Ten Years After, Rwanda Tries Reconciliation
Authors: Graybill Lyn S.
Published: May 2020

Rwanda's resurrection of a traditional method of resolving conflict may serve as an example to other traumatized societies in Africa that are wrestling with the question of how to live with former enemies.
Africa's Young Guerrillas: Rebels with a Cause?
Authors: Bøås Morten
Published: May 2020

A shared experience of brutalization, abuse, and marginalization informs the worldview of these movements. Each has emerged, too, within the context of a deeply dysfunctional state.
Libya: Who Blinked, and Why
Authors: Joffé George
Published: May 2020

There was plenty of self-satisfied official comment about the efficacy of strong-minded policy in the Middle East, particularly the war in Iraq, in concentrating Colonel Qaddafi's mind on essential reform. But it was nothing of the kind that led to the breakthrough.
Beijing's Ambivalent Reformers
Authors: Dickson Bruce J.
Published: May 2020

The party has implemented various modest reforms in recent years. Some are designed to allow the party to implement its policy agenda more efficiently. Others aim to make it more responsive to a changing society, or at least to appear so. All are designed to perpetuate the Communist Party's rule, not necessarily to make China more democratic.
The Latin Americanization of China?
Authors: Gilboy George J. , Heginbotham Eric
Published: May 2020

Land reforms aimed at raising rural incomes and promoting urbanization could accelerate the crisis already building in China's cities. If urban legal and social reforms fail to keep pace, China could face intensifying conflict between a burgeoning class of have-nots and an entitled minority, a consolidated alliance between political leaders and business and social elites, and a host of other social and political ills familiar to many Latin American states.
Reengaging Russia: A New Agenda
Authors: McFaul Michael
Published: May 2020

If Russia eventually reverts to a full-blown autocratic regime, it is not inconceivable that tension and competition once again will define Russian-American relations. At this critical moment in Russia's internal development, American foreign policy makers cannot afford to be disengaged.
Chechnya Ten Years Later
Authors: Abdullaev Nabi
Published: May 2020

The Chechen conflict is not so much about who will govern Chechnya. It is about whether Chechnya will be governed at all.
Weaving the Authoritarian Web
Authors: Boas Taylor C.
Published: May 2020

Authoritarian countries such as China and Saudi Arabia are employing both technological and institutional means to control use of the Internet while also encouraging its growth. In doing so, they stand as counterevidence to much of the optimistic thinking about the Internet's effect on democratization. …
Iraq: From Insurgency to Civil War?
Authors: Hashim Ahmed S.
Published: May 2020

After the successful but destructive assault on Falluja, the Sunni Arabs are not merely alienated; they are outraged, and their support for the insurgency has increased. More ominously, a large number of Sunni see no future for their community in the new Iraq.
Latin America's Populist Turn
Authors: Shifter Michael , Jawahar Vinay
Published: May 2020

Latin America's political landscape, highly complex and variegated, defies easy categorization and raises fundamental questions—including whether it might be better to jettison the term ‘left’ altogether.
El Salvador's “Model” Democracy
Authors: Holiday David
Published: May 2020

In the immediate aftermath of the 1992 peace accords, El Salvador was cited frequently by the United Nations and even the World Bank as a country that, with the international community's help, effectively managed its transition from civil war to peace and reconciliation. Thirteen years later, only the US government views the Salvadoran model so favorably.
Haiti after Aristide: Still on the Brink
Authors: Erikson Daniel P.
Published: May 2020

In the 1990s, Haiti was on the front lines of us efforts to help bind Latin America and the Caribbean into a ‘community of democracies.’ Today, the country is the closest example of a failed state this side of the Atlantic.
Indonesia after the Tsunami
Authors: Aspinall Edward
Published: May 2020

The post-tsunami relief, rehabilitation, and reconstruction efforts … pose enormous challenges for a new government that inherits, and is partly a product of, a ramshackle and ineffective state apparatus.
Thailand's Thaksin to the Rescue
Authors: Kazmin Amy
Published: May 2020

Before the killer wave, the campaign had been heating up with increasing public debate about Thaksin's … authoritarian style and apparent contempt for democratic principles. After the tsunami, Thais rallied behind their leader.
America and India at a Turning Point
Authors: Ganguly Sumit
Published: May 2020

Can the Bush administration successfully set aside its differences with India and build on the emerging commonalities of interest?
First Steps: The Afghan Elections
Authors: Barfield Thomas J.
Published: May 2020

For [Hamid] Karzai, winning a nationwide plebiscite made him the first elected leader in Afghan history and legitimized his government…. But his electoral victory will prove hollow unless he succeeds in using this window of opportunity to permanently change the dynamic of Afghan politics.
The Persian Dilemma: Will Iran Go Nuclear?
Authors: Vakil Sanam
Published: May 2020

The Iranians have continued to take advantage of international disunity. Clearly, they hope to use the uproar over their nuclear aspirations to extract as many concessions as possible.
Africa's Democratization: A Work in Progress
Authors: Widner Jennifer
Published: May 2020

Real, sustained efforts are being made across the continent to deepen democracy and reap the benefits of accountable governance. The success of these efforts has been mixed, but it is far too soon to write them off as failures.
Development in Africa: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly
Authors: Lancaster Carol
Published: May 2020

Whether hiv/aids and civil conflict are tamed or left unrestrained is primarily in the hands of Africans and, above all, African leaders—and so is the region's future economic performance.
America's Bismarckian Asia Policy
Authors: Heginbotham Eric , Twomey Christopher P.
Published: May 2020

us policy is not achieving the goals set out for it. It is ceding regional leadership while seeding regional rivalry. It is missing opportunities to help shape the development of a new security environment through regional institutions and instead acting to exacerbate the rise of nationalism.…
China's Environmental Challenge
Authors: Economy Elizabeth
Published: May 2020

Environmental degradation and pollution constrain economic growth, contribute to large-scale migration, harm public health, and engender social unrest. Moreover, there is the potential … for the environment to serve as a locus for broader political discontent and further political reforms.
Red Star over the Himalayas
Authors: Tiwari Chitra
Published: May 2020

Those who have watched the deteriorating political conditions in Nepal for several years are skeptical of the royal regime's capacity to bring the insurgency under control…. Nepal, they say, is now destined for a surge in violence and the 237-year-old Nepali monarchy appears doomed.
The Great Powers in Central Asia
Authors: Olcott Martha Brill
Published: May 2020

The United States, Russia, and China have spent the past few years jockeying for position in the region…. [But] the challenges facing Central Asian states remain largely unchanged, and governments there have received few new tools to address them.
In Eastern Europe, Corruption in the Crosshairs
Authors: Karklins Rasma
Published: May 2020

If those responsible for grand corruption are called to account, this can significantly raise the credibility of anticorruption campaigns and galvanize public support for efforts to contain the pettier forms of corruption….
The Decline of American Soft Power
Authors: Kurlantzick Joshua
Published: May 2020

Anti-Bush administration sentiment, which developed between 2002 and 2004, has mutated and strengthened into a broader anti-Americanism.
Controlling Global Corruption: Are We There Yet?
Authors: Johnston Michael
Published: May 2020

Neoliberal reforms do not so much end corruption as privatize it.
Grand Goals, Modest Results: The UN in Search of Reform
Authors: Laurenti Jeffrey
Published: May 2020

Washington resists linking the political and military issues that Americans understand as ‘security’ with the economic and social issues arising from the deep poverty prevalent in four-fifths of the world's nations. Others think the linkage is obvious.
Iraq and Democracy: The Lessons Learned
Authors: Diamond Larry
Published: May 2020

The United States squandered its extraordinary military victory through a series of gross strategic mistakes, acts of ideological blindness, and a breathtaking failure to prepare militarily and politically for the postwar era.
The Middle East's Corruption Conundrum
Authors: Gillespie Kate
Published: May 2020

Cleaning up political corruption is urgently imperative…. Yet cultural change takes time, and there is an abundance of cynicism to overcome.
The Divided States of the Americas
Authors: Shifter Michael , Jawahar Vinay
Published: May 2020

While economic and technological ties may be bringing the Americas closer, at a national level there has been a marked breakdown of consensus, along with deepening disintegration.
Chávez's Venezuela
Authors: Gunson Phil
Published: May 2020

Is Chávez a democrat? And, whether he is or not, can he deliver social and economic justice to the mass of the Venezuelan population?
Trouble Ahead: The Cocaleros of Peru
Authors: Felbab-Brown Vanda
Published: May 2020

Ironically, civil society, which the United States has been exporting as a means of democratization around the world, is precisely what is complicating its counternarcotics policies in the Andes.
India and the Asian Security Architecture
Authors: Sahni Varun
Published: May 2020

By building robust political and economic links with both China and the United States, India could end up playing an important catalytic role in bringing both countries together in a new cooperative Asia.
Asia's Challenged Giants
Authors: Sharma Shalendra D.
Published: May 2020

China and India are already major players in the global economy. However, their impact in coming decades on the world's economic and strategic landscape will depend … on how each deals with its structural and economic challenges.
The Roots of African Corruption
Authors: Ellis Stephen
Published: May 2020

In broad swaths of Africa many types of corrupt practice are not the deviant behavior of a small minority—they are a standard mode of transacting political and financial business.
Can Somalia Salvage Itself?
Authors: Bryden Matt
Published: May 2020

Unless Somali leaders act soon to rescue their transitional government, it may prove impossible to reverse their country's agonizing decline.
China's Charm Offensive in Southeast Asia
Authors: Kurlantzick Joshua
Published: May 2020

Many Southeast Asians now regard China as a benign presence to be emulated—a sharp contrast with current regional views of the United States.
Vietnam's Bumpy Road to Reform
Authors: Quinn-Judge Sophie
Published: May 2020

As in China, political and intellectual reform in Vietnam has lagged behind the stunning transformation of the economy.
The Ukrainian Gas Crisis Revisited
Authors: Sokov Nikolai
Published: May 2020

Russia's gas price policy, however badly and arrogantly executed, was perhaps not unreasonable. In fact, it may serve the long-term interests of the international community, and even Ukraine.
Bringing Iran to the Bargaining Table
Authors: Pollack Kenneth M.
Published: May 2020

If the Iranian people were ever forced to choose between the nuclear program and their country's economic health, they likely would choose the latter.
The Limits and Liabilities of Missile Defense
Authors: Coyle Philip E.
Published: May 2020

The most effective route in dealing with nuclear and missile proliferation threats may be through creative diplomacy, not military technology.
Deterrence or Preemption?
Authors: Knopf Jeffrey W.
Published: May 2020

Given reasonable prospects for successful deterrence and the variety of other policy tools that can be used … preemption generally does not appear to be the best choice in dealing with WMD threats.
Iran's Conservative Revival
Authors: Baktiari Bahman
Published: May 2020

No one has benefited more from American blunders in the Middle East than the conservatives in Iran who now control all the power centers. …
Iraq's Civil War
Authors: Hashim Ahmed S.
Published: May 2020

The US and Iraqi governments' reluctance to accept the designation ‘civil war’ does not alter the reality on the ground.
Ecuador's Gamble: Can Correa Govern?
Authors: Conaghan Catherine M.
Published: May 2020

Rafael Correa faces his greatest challenge yet: how to deliver on his ambitious campaign promises to transform Ecuador, the most politically unstable country in the region.
Turkey's Fading Dream of Europe
Authors: Taspinar Omer
Published: May 2020

A complacent West could easily face the previously unthinkable question: ‘Who lost Turkey?’
India's Remix Generation
Authors: Bansal Rashmi
Published: May 2020

Is this new caste-neutral, education-hungry, spend-happy young person representative of the real India?
Thailand's Elusive Equilibrium
Authors: Dalpino Catharin
Published: May 2020

The challenges facing the interim administration create a difficult environment in which to undertake constitutional reform. …
China in Africa: A Mixed Blessing?
Authors: Vines Alex
Published: May 2020

The challenge is to find openings to engage China, to ensure that past mistakes of postcolonial development and investment in Africa are not repeated. …
Africa's Restless Youth
Authors: Gavin Michelle
Published: May 2020

People interested in Africa's future ought to concern themselves not just with potential conflict, but also potential political change. Youth populations are at the heart of these possibilities.
Taiwanese Politics Gets Interesting Again
Authors: Fahey Michael
Published: May 2020

Chen, never having won a sweeping popular mandate, and understanding after the 2004 legislative election that he would face a hostile legislature for the rest of his time in office, has largely devoted himself to reshaping Taiwan's view of itself.
China's Confounding Religious Revival
Authors: Madsen Richard
Published: May 2020

The government wants to control religion and harness its philanthropic energies to create social stability—until such time as religion can be completely strangled.
After Putin, the Deluge?
Authors: Aron Leon
Published: May 2020

The Kremlin's nervousness over the upcoming presidential succession, although camouflaged by oil wealth and passed over in silence by the renationalized or intimidated mass media, is plain to see.
Russia and China: The Ambivalent Embrace
Authors: Kuchins Andrew
Published: May 2020

Despite deep-seated wariness toward China on the part of the Russian leadership and people, ties with Beijing have significantly advanced under the leadership of both Yeltsin and Putin.
Global Warming Battlefields: How Climate Change Threatens Security
Authors: Klare Michael T.
Published: May 2020

It may well be that the most costly and challenging consequence of climate change will be an increase in violent conflict and all the humanitarian trauma this brings with it.
After Iraq: Picking up the Pieces
Authors: Galbraith Peter W.
Published: May 2020

In Iraq itself, the unintended consequences of the war have been worse even than Turkey's alienation and Iran's triumph.
The Shiite “Threat” Revisited
Authors: Norton Augustus Richarard
Published: May 2020

Reverberations from the 2003 invasion of Iraq may last for decades. But an inexorable spread of Sunni-Shiite conflict is only the worst case, and frankly it is not very likely.
China's Challenge to US Hegemony
Authors: Layne Christopher
Published: May 2020

If the United States tries to maintain its current dominance in East Asia, Sino-American conflict is virtually certain. …
The Resilient Authoritarians
Authors: Dimitrov Martin
Published: May 2020

China and Russia, along with a number of other countries, demonstrate that capitalism can exist without Western-style democracy, at least for a period of time.
Requiem for the Monroe Doctrine
Authors: Erikson Daniel P.
Published: May 2020

The era when the United States could treat Latin America and the Caribbean as its backyard … is receding ever faster into history.
Argentina's Troubled Transition
Authors: Schamis Hector E.
Published: May 2020

The country has a democratic system whose health and stability depend largely on the economic cycle.
Colombia's Precarious Progress
Authors: Bustamante Michael , Chaskel Sebastian
Published: May 2020

The success or failure of us-Colombian collaboration … will determine whether the heightened public security of the moment represents truly longterm progress or merely a hiatus from decades of civil conflict.
Africa's Religious Resurgence and the Politics of Good and Evil
Authors: Ellis Stephen , Haar Gerrie Ter
Published: May 2020

At a time when ‘development’—the notion that bureaucratic, secular government will lead to unprecedented prosperity—has for many lost its appeal, religion provides alternative ways of organizing society and politics and of thinking about the world.
Where US and Russian Interests Overlap
Authors: Trenin Dmitri
Published: May 2020

Why is it that all recent Russian leaders have started out as friends of the United States, wishing to be embraced as allies, but after a while have become disillusioned…?
The US and Africa: Prisoners of a Paradigm?
Authors: Mills Greg
Published: May 2020

Africa needs more investment and economic growth. It needs less theater and, certainly, no more pity.
Japan's New Politics: Quiet Before the Storm?
Authors: Vogel Steven
Published: May 2020

Koizumi convinced Japanese voters that he could do more to change Japanese politics than the opposition; his successors will be hard-pressed to repeat that feat.
Beijing Eyes a Bear Market
Authors: Hale Lyric Hughes
Published: May 2020

Has China now reached a critical developmental limit, and is this being played out in its no-longer buoyant stock markets?
The Party-State Studies Abroad
Authors: Shambaugh David
Published: May 2020

The CCP has been willing to search for useful ideas abroad, with a view to selectively borrowing, adapting, and grafting them to indigenous Chinese institutions and practices.
It Is Still Putin's Russia
Authors: Stoner-Weiss Kathryn
Published: May 2020

Clearly Medvedev either cannot or will not diverge significantly from the path on which Putin set his country in 2000.
Seeds of Discontent: Russia's Food Woes
Authors: Allina-Pisano Jessica
Published: May 2020

The Russian government … risks losing some of its legitimacy in the eyes of the citizenry if food prices continue to rise and citizens begin to feel their daily existence slide into insecurity.
The Health Crisis in Russia's Ranks
Authors: Feshbach Murray
Published: May 2020

Russia is a country with a huge military arsenal and major ambitions—but very low human potential to realize these ambitions.
Bad Credit History
Authors: Eichengreen Barry
Published: May 2020

Why, given that this is a global credit crisis and recession, have policy makers in other countries failed to move as aggressively? And why have US policy measures … not halted the downward spiral?
The Late, Great Globalization
Authors: James Harold
Published: May 2020

We are likely to see more and more parallels with the political dynamics of the world of the Great Depression.
Does the Doha Round Matter?
Authors: Ann Elliott Kimberly
Published: May 2020

Protections for vulnerable developing countries could be lost if a Doha failure leads more powerful nations to devalue the WTO's role in governing trade.
Converging at the Center in Britain
Authors: Cronin James E.
Published: May 2020

Under Brown's rather uncharismatic leadership, something like a new political and social settlement seems to be in place, and the best measure of that is how little a Tory government would alter it.
No Time for a Time-out in Europe
Authors: Serfaty Simon
Published: May 2020

Twenty years after the end of the cold war, expectations run high on both sides of the Atlantic for another renewal of the Atlantic alliance and a relaunching of European integration.
Somali Piracy: A Nasty Problem, a Web of Responses
Authors: Kraska James , Wilson Brian
Published: May 2020

In a surprising way, piracy provides an opportunity to harness the collective strength of states. …
Unruly Stability: Why China's Regime Has Staying Power
Authors: Walder Andrew G.
Published: May 2020

The overall political situation in China is far more favorable for the regime than it was during the relatively tumultuous and strife-torn first decade of economic reform.
NATO and Russia: Partnership or Peril?
Authors: Trenin Dmitri
Published: May 2020

The Western alliance has no reason to fear its members' ‘defecting’ to Moscow, and it has every reason to engage with the Russians on common security concerns.