bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
DETERMINANTS OF REPAYMENT PERFORMANCE IN MICROFINANCE PROGRAMS IN MALAYSIA
Authors: Nawai Norhaziah Binti , Mohd Shariff Mohd Noor Bin
Published: January 2023

This paper analyzes the repayment performance in microfinance programs in Malaysia that apply individual lending approach. The research framework of this study is built by four factors namely individual/borrower factors, firm/business factors, loan factors and institutional/lender factors as independent variables and repayment performance either paid on time, delinquent and default as dependent variables. The study used mixed methodology, combining between quantitative and qualitative data through questionnaire survey, indepth interviews, publish and unpublished reports. The data of this study is gathered from 401 respondents in Peninsular Malaysia through multistage random sampling. The data is analysed by descriptive analysis and multinomial logit model. Meanwhile, for qualitative data, a total of 21 respondents (7 respondents who paid on time, 7 respondents who delinquent and 7 respondents who default) were selected randomly and structured interviews with 6 MFIâ€™s State Managers. The results show that in terms of borrower characteristics, only micro entrepreneurâ€™s religious education level is statistically significant in the relationship between delinquent and good borrowers and between default and good borrowers. Whereas, in firm/business characteristics, the result shows that distance, business formality and total sales are statistically significant. The finding shows that total loan received, loan type and repayment schedule are the loan characteristics that affect micro entrepreneurâ€™s loan repayment. In terms of institutional/lender characteristics, the finding shows that loan monitoring is statistically significant in the relationship between delinquent and good borrowers. This study contributes significantly to the knowledge of microfinance program at large, wherein it explains the factors affecting repayment performance and repayment performance plays an important role to ensure that MFIs can continue providing microfinance to the micro entrepreneurs without depending on subsidies.
TIME-OF-THE-MONTH ANOMALY IN ASEAN EQUITY MARKETS
Authors: Kok Kim-Lian , Wong Yoke-Chen
Published: January 2023

This paper examines a recently documented time-of-the-month anomaly in five ASEAN equity markets before, during and after the Asian financial crisis. The results show that this anomaly exists in the smaller markets of Indonesia and the Philippines in the pre-crisis period and Indonesia in the post-crisis period. The other bigger markets of Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand do not exhibit such anomaly in any period at all. This anomaly is still observed even when the autocorrelation in stock returns is taken into consideration.
TRADING BLOC EXPOSURE IN INTERNATIONAL ASSET PRICING: THE CASE OF AFTA, CER AND NAFTA
Authors: Hooy Chee-Wooi , Goh Kim-Leng
Published: January 2023

This paper shows that the resurgence of trade regionalism has a significant impact on stock market returns of the member countries in the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA), Australia-New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Arrangement (CER) and North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA). A trading bloc international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) is proposed and we find that the trading bloc factor increases the explanatory power of the conventional ICAPM for AFTA and CER. Evidence indicates that returns of the markets in AFTA and CER are highly exposed to the trading bloc factor. At the same time, exposure to the global market is still significant, particularly for the more advanced markets of Singapore and Australia. The conventional ICAPM is still relevant for the large and leading world markets in NAFTA. The trade bloc factor, however, has minimal impact in influencing market returns of non-member countries. The findings of significant exposure to regional dynamics offer an explanation to why stock markets are generally segmented.
ESTIMATING THE PROBABILITY OF SERVICE RECOVERY STRATEGIES IN FRANCHISE FAST FOOD RESTAURANT
Authors: De run Ernest Cyril , Ting Pui-Ling
Published: January 2023

This paper sets out to determine the probability from a customerâ€™s viewpoint, of which service recovery activities will most probably be carried out by front liners in Franchise Fast Food Restaurants (FFFR). The study utilized a Juster scale based questionnaire survey format. Data was then analyzed using means and factor analysis. Means analysis indicated that customers did not expect front liners to offer free food but there was a good possibility that they would receive an apology. More than half of the service recovery strategies studied lay below the 50/50 probability. Factor analysis indicated three views of customers on service recover strategies, which are termed as â€˜Immediateâ€™, â€˜Worksâ€™ and â€˜Wordsâ€™. Customers believe that there is a good possibility for â€˜Wordsâ€™ service recovery activity, fairly good possibility of â€˜Immediateâ€™ service recovery and fair possibility of â€˜Worksâ€™ service recovery activity. The study was limited to respondents in Kuching and customers of FFFR. Nevertheless the finding has important implications to management and academia. A practical application from this study would be the use of â€˜Immediateâ€™ and â€˜Wordsâ€™ service recovery strategies to improve customerâ€™s perception of a company after service failure. The use of â€˜Worksâ€™ would delight them, as it is not expected.
HERDING MEASURES IN EQUITY MARKETS: A CASE STUDY OF BURSA MALAYSIA
Authors: Wong Yoke-Chen , Kok Kim-Lian
Published: January 2023

This study examines the issue of herding in the Malaysian equity market over the period 1993 – 2004. Using the method proposed by Christie and Huang (1995), we did not detect any evidence of herding for the whole market, the large firms or the small firms during the pre-crisis, crisis and the post-crisis periods. The modified method of Christie and Huang (1995) produced similar findings. However, using the method proposed by Chang et al. (2000), herding was found in the overall market in the whole period. In the pre-crisis period, herding in the market during the market decline could be attributed to both the large and small firms. Rather surprisingly, there was no herding in the crisis period. In the post-crisis period, herding was detected in the market during market rise and this could be attributed to the small firms. Large firms, on the other hand, witnessed herding during market decline. The modified method of Chang et al. (2000) detected more evidence of herding with the use of cross-sectional inter-quartile range but lessevidence of herding when cross-sectional standard deviation is used.
TERMS OF TRADE AND TRADE BALANCE IN KOREA, HONG KONG AND SINGAPORE
Authors: Wong Hock Tsen
Published: January 2023

This study examines the impact of terms of trade on trade balance in Korea, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Generally, the results of the cointegration tests show that there is a long-run relationship between terms of trade and trade balance. More specifically, an increase in terms of trade will lead to a decrease in trade balance. For Hong Kong, trade balance is found to Granger cause terms of trade and there is bilateral Granger causality between terms of trade volatility and trade balance. Terms of trade has some predictive power on trade balance.
STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN THE EFFICIENCY OF THE ASEAN STOCK MARKETS AFTER THE MILLENNIUM
Authors: Chan Sheung Tat , Chong Terence Tai-Leung
Published: January 2023

This paper examines the performance of the time-series model based trading rules in the ASEAN stock markets. Our results show that the trading rules are in general profitable, especially in the Malaysian and Indonesian stock markets, but the profitability has declined in recent years. Using a structural-change test, we find evidence that the efficiency of the ASEAN stock markets has improved after the millennium.
Portfolio Management During Epidemics: The Case of SARS in China
Authors: Terence Chong Tai-Leung , Lu Shen , Wong Wing-Keung
Published: January 2023

This paper assessed the impact of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) on China’s stock market. Our results indicated that the Chinese stock market reacted rapidly to the SARS epidemic. We provide strong empirical evidence that the epidemic had an immediate impact on the pharmaceutical and tourism industries. Pharmaceutical companies particularly benefited from the outbreak of SARS, while the tourism sector was adversely affected. Our results imply the existence of a profitable trading rule during an epidemic.
TERMS OF TRADE, REAL INTEREST RATE DIFFERENTIAL AND REAL EXCHANGE RATE IN JAPAN: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY
Authors: Wong Hock-Tsen
Published: January 2023

This study examines the real exchange rate determination in Japan. The results of the long-run cointegrating vectors show that an increase in the real oil price will lead to a depreciation of the real exchange rate whilst an increase in productivity differential will lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate. The results of the error correction models show that the real oil price, productivity differential, and the real interest rate differential are important in the real exchange rate determination. The results of the generalized forecast error variance decompositions show that productivity differential is relatively more important than the real oil price in the real exchange rate determination. Generally, the real oil price, productivity differential, and the real interest rate differential are important in the real exchange rate determination in Japan.
Hydrogen engine cleaning
Authors:   GAU of the Northern Trans-Urals, Romanov Sergey , Semenov Boris
Published: January 2023

Due to the strict maintenance standards of modern cars, a large number of problems arise due to improper maintenance. Of these, the main ones can be distinguished: an extended service interval, improperly selected technical fluids, low-quality fuel and operation in harsh conditions. All this leads to a decrease in the service life of the power unit. To increase the service life and return the engine to a state close to the factory, hydrogen cleaning is used. Keywords: HYDROGEN CLEANING, ENGINE CLEANING, MAJOR REPAIR, DEPOSITS, PYROLYSIS, MAINTENANCE, OPERATION, MODE, DEPOSITS
Scenario model for assessing and predicting the risks of electrical installations based on the analysis of a human-machine system
Authors: Nikolsky Oleg , Faranosov Vadim , Surinsky Dmitry
Published: January 2023

Currently, the search for effective decision-making methods based on the use of modern information technologies is an important factor in the management of semi-structured systems. The choice of the optimal solution, as a rule, is carried out in conditions of incomplete initial data, a plurality of opinions about goals, criteria and their preference; it is also necessary to take into account the factors of uncertainty and subjectivity of specialist experts and their relationship with the decision maker (LNR). It seems timely to create expert systems for solving the multicriteria problem of risk optimization under conditions of uncertainty. The resulting knowledge base should combine the mathematical decision-making apparatus (DM) with non-strict heuristic expert methods. Keywords: MAN-MADE FIRES, LEAKAGE CURRENTS IN ELECTRICAL INSTALLATIONS, THERMAL OVERLOAD, HUMAN-MACHINE SYSTEM
The effect of the volume and composition of the substrate on the quality of seedlings when growing hybrid petunia in the Rostov region
Authors:   Don State Agrarian University, Guzenko Tatiana , Kamenevа Vera
Published: January 2023

Experiments on growing petunia seedlings in protected ground conditions were carried out in 2020-2022 on the basis of the greenhouse complex of the Don State Agrarian University in the Oktyabrsky district of the Rostov region. The object of research was a hybrid of petunia Grandi-flora Limbo JP. The repetition of the experience is fourfold. The scheme of the experiment in-cluded variants with containers of 450, 350 and 230 cm3. Peat, sand, fertilizer based on Karelian shungite "Shungiterra" and organic mineral fertilizer Agrovit-Core were used to prepare the sub-strate for growing seedlings. The highest indicators of the quality index in the experiment were obtained using a substrate consisting of ¾ peat, ¼ sand and fertilizer "ShungiTerra" based on Ka-relian shungite of the Turastamozr deposit (substrate mixed with Shungiterra 1: 10). When using containers with a substrate volume of 450 cm3, the seedling quality index increased by 0.40 com-pared to the control variant, with a volume of 350 cm3 – by 0.17 and 230 cm3 – by 0.13. Keywords: VOLUME, FERTILIZER, SUBSTRATE, QUALITY INDEX, HYBRID PETUNIA
The Life Path of Javer Effendi Baruch During the Austro-Hungarian Administration
Authors: Lužija Stojanka
Published: January 2023

Based on available archival material and periodicals, the author reconstructs the life story of Javer Effendi Baruch, one of the most respected and wealthy citizens of Sarajevo, during the Austro-Hungarian administration of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The personality of Javer Eff. Baruch has not been thoroughly researched in the historiography so far. It is known that Baruch gained a social reputation during Ottoman rule. After the arrival of Austria-Hungary in Bosnia and Herzegovina, he not only managed to preserve and strengthen his social position but also acquired enviable wealth. This paper aims to present the unusual life path of a Sephardic from Sarajevo. The paper analyzes his life path from a supplier for military needs, a customs tenant, a Sarajevo city councilor, to a convict for insulting majesty. Based on the available historical materials, the existence of changes in the relationship between the then administration and society towards Javer Effendi Baruch after 1887 is examined.
Issues of Identity in Trilogija o Bosni by Valerija Skrinjar-Tvrz
Authors: Pečenković Vildana
Published: January 2023

The paper questions the construction of identity in the novels of Slovenian-Bosnian authoress Valerija Skrinjar-Tvrz: Na svojoj, na plemenitoj, Jutro u Bosni and Bosna i Soča, which were combined and published as a trilogy this year. Integrating the period of medieval Bosnia, the First World War, and the war in Bosnia and Herzegovina from 1992-1995 into one whole, the trilogy achieves multiple coding. Although distant in time, driven by different motivations, and intersected by different ideologies, wars shape the lives of the heroes of this trilogy. In this unique poetic entity, the authoress managed to show the complexity of common life through individual destinies and “small stories” and to deconstruct the conception that history is made up of “big stories”. The identities of individuals in the novels represent the identities of communities whose borders are porous and threaten to destroy the established systems, while individual unfortunate destinies are a mirror of collective traumas from the Middle Ages to modern times. The Trilogy covers almost the entire Bosnian history, trying to include identity constructions and their associated identification features, which the authoress considers representative of contemporary identity re/configurations.
Phrasems Modifications in Pobune of Derviš Sušić
Authors: Kečo Edina
Published: January 2023

The collection of short stories Pobune was mainly analyzed from a literary theoretical perspective. The paper deals with the linguistic analysis of phrasemes modifications and the expansion of phrasemes in the mentioned work. The paper distinguishes between phrasemes modifications and phrasemes variations. Since the term phrasemes in modern phraseology is interpreted in different ways, this paper will analyze those phrasemes that have at least two autosemantic words in their composition, at least one of which has a transferred meaning. In the excerpted corpus, no author's modifications of idioms resulting from the reduction or condensation of certain lexemes were found, but only idioms created by expanding/adding lexemes that affected the modified meanings of those idioms. The aim of the work is the analysis of the author's phrasemes, finding synonymous phrasemes in consulted sources and giving meaning to those author's phrasemes that have not been recorded in both phraseological and general dictionaries of the Bosnian, Croatian and Serbian languages, but also in other consulted sources. Structurally and semantically modified phrasemes are found in the analyzed corpus. The recorded examples of idioms in the five short stories were used only once, and their unrepeatability also affects their more expressive value. The analyzed examples of the author's modifications of phrasemes are an indicator of the writer's ability to make recorded phrasemes more expressive, to change their meanings, and to construct new phrasemes that were not recorded.
English for Specific Purposes - Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow
Authors: Bošković Dražena , Šetka Čilić Ivona
Published: January 2023

The phenomenon of English for specific purposes (ESP) occurred in 1960 as a result of a fast revolution in theoretical linguistics, followed by worldwide demands for a faster and better learning of the English language in both professional and academic environments, as well as a result of an increased pressure on educators and educational institutions to focus more on needs of students. English for specific purposes occurred within English Language Teaching (ELT); however, later, it became an autonomous subfield of applied linguistics. This article deals with major definitions of the concept, its origin, basic characteristics, followed by a discussion about the most prominent evolution phases of English for specific purposes. Furthermore, it tries to predict the future of this extremely important field. The article begins with an introduction where we present basic definitions and characteristics of the term. After that, we discuss the early years of English for specific purposes, key concepts with an emphasis on the notion of needs analysis and the modern era in which the genre becomes the central topic of study, but we also overview recent research in the field of corpus linguistics and ethnography. The conclusion discusses possible future directions and development of English for specific purposes.
Contribution to the Chronology of the Notary and Chancellors of Kotor in the 14th and Beginning of the 15th Centuries
Authors: Gogić Miljan
Published: January 2023

In contrast to the 12th and 13th centuries, the sources for the study of the Kotor notary in the 14thand 15thcenturies are significantly more numerous and diverse. In the first place, there are office notarial writings that have been preserved from the period 1326-1337, then the second half of the last decade of the 14th century, and, almost continuously, from the end of the second decade of the 15th century. Apart from them, individual documents created in the Kotor office during the 14th century have been preserved, which represent a very valuable source for studying the time when certain notaries worked in Kotor. An extremely important source for the study of this issue is the Grbalj cadaster which contains the notes of notaries and chancellors who drew up documents on the ownership of land holdings in Grbalj. Mentions of some Kotor notaries and the time of their activity can be found in the Dubrovnik archives of the 13th-15th centuries. A special type of source about Kotor notaries of the 14thand 15thcenturies contains their lists. One such can be found in the Zagreb copy of the Kotor Statute and contains a list of notaries from 1380 to 1487. The second one is the list of notaries and chancellors located in the National University Library in Zagreb. It is a particularly valuable source for the chronology of Kotor notaries from the second half of the 14th century, providing information about them until 1705. It brings the names of some hitherto little-known Kotor notaries from the beginning of the 15th century.
Representation of Course Subjects and Curriculums in the Initial Education of Pedagogues Aimed at the Development of Competencies for Partnerships with Parents
Authors: Mujić Senada
Published: January 2023

The aim of this paper is to determine to what extent course curriculums of the pedagogy studies develop competencies in students for partnerships with parents. In order to achieve this aim, course curriculums of the pedagogy studies have been collected and analyzed at public universities in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. In this research the following curriculums are analyzed: study curriculum of pedagogy at the Faculty of Philosophy in Sarajevo, the Faculty of Philosophy in Tuzla, and the Teaching Faculty in Mostar. The conducted analysis, which included pedagogy study curriculums in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, showed that there are no explicit and closely related courses with the aim of acquiring competencies for the partnership with parents. The results, also, point to the conclusion that there is a connection between the aims, contents, and learning outcomes within the course subjects aimed at the study of family upbringing, and that the scope of contents related to the development of competencies for partnership with parents, and which is included in the listed course curriculums, is insufficient, as well as intended obligatory and additional literature at those courses which refer to the area of partnerships between pedagogues and parents. The listed results indicate the need for the improvement of pedagogy course curriculums in the area that refers to the representation of course subjects primarily oriented towards the development of pedagogue’s competencies for partnerships with parents, and in the area of representation of the scope of course contents related to this domain.
Work Motivation and Neurotic Perfectionism as Predictors of Workaholism
Authors: Marković Jelena
Published: January 2023

The basic goal of this research was to examine which aspects of work motivation and perfectionism predict workaholism, in order to identify potential risk factors. Workaholism is defined as an internal need to work excessively that damages our health and psychosocial well-being, leading to long-term exhaustion and work inefficacy. Intrinsic motivation stems from the feeling of satisfaction inherent in doing work-related tasks and using our professional competencies, whereas extrinsic motivation stems from external rewards, a satisfaction of our other needs through work. The basis of neurotic perfectionism lies in the constant discrepancy between the goals person has set and what is achieved, which can lead to chronic dissatisfaction. The following instruments were used: The almost Perfect Scale, the Work extrinsic and intrinsic motivation scale, and Bergen Work Addiction Scale. The sample consisted of 109 participants, workers from the Republika Srpska area, aged 21 to 55. Most of the sample consisted of female participants (75.24%). The results of Kolmogorov-Smirnoff tests show that participants' scores on all examined variables are distributed normally. The fact that workaholism is moderately present in our sample is opposite from original expectations and highlights the need to further examine the prevalence of this phenomenon in the general working population. The predictive model as a whole is statistically significant (F(5,103)=5.01,p<0.00) and predicts 16% of workaholism variance. However, only perfectionism component discrepancy was a significant and positive predictor of workaholism, but not intrinsic or extrinsic work motivation.
The results suggest that workaholism can originate from the efforts of perfectionistic persons to overcome their perceived failures in achieving their unrealistically high goals. It is possible that, through time, obsessive work becomes a means to avoid dealing with negative emotions towards themselves, and also as a way to excuse themselves from real or irrational failures (“I did not achieve my goal, but I worked really hard and I will keep trying”). Of course, in the long run, excessive perfectionism combined with workaholism leads to utter exhaustion and further deterioration of work performance. In order to cope with the constant rise of negative feelings a person tries to work even harder and to achieve increasingly unrealistic goals, leading to a downward spiral of self-destruction. The implications of this research are that in order to treat workaholism it may be necessary to question the structure of unattainable goals that a person sets and the underlying feelings of inadequacy, self-doubt, and self-loathing that may play an important role in perpetuating maladaptive behavior of a typical workaholic. Workaholism must be studied as a part of wider personality structure and dynamic, as it serves an important (and maladaptive) role in defense against unwanted feelings and ideas of lesser worth, failure, etc.
Extension of Television on Social Networks
Authors: Dautović Miralem
Published: January 2023

The article discusses the implications, potential, and ways of using online media in the context of television journalism. Watching TV together is moving to social networks. Relying on the concept of social television viewing, the paper tried to study how television station editors use social networks, as well as to what extent social networks use television as a source of content. These questions were investigated empirically using the method of content analysis on a sample of 10 BH. television stations. The results point to three areas: 1. watching television on social networks as a social activity (Social TV), 2. television as a resource and source of content for social networks, and 3. social networks as a new television platform. The article provides a contribution to a poorly studied area in studies of the adaptation of television to the contemporary convergent environment.
Perceptions of Jews in the Bosnian Franciscan Literary Tradition: From Anti-Judaism To Anti-Semitism?
Authors: Begović-Sokolija Ena
Published: January 2023

The literary opus of the Bosnian Franciscans is interesting in many ways from the imagological point of view: both concerning self-perceptions and hetero-perceptions, which were constructed based on the importance of religion as an element of community identity. Analyzing the imagotype potential of religious and ethnic divisions, the paper reconstructs the controversies between Christianity and Judaism, as well as linguistic elements, folk customs, and contemporary reality. At the source of the Bosnian Franciscan literature, at the beginning of the 17th century, we find Divković, who, as is often the case in pre-modern culture, relates the religious Other to the ethnic Other. This tradition is continued by the 19th century’s Franciscan chroniclers (Lastrić, Benić, and Bogdanović), while Martić, Jukić, and Knežević, who stepped into the era of the rebirth of Croatian Illyrianism, we can trace various normative implications of the relationship between political, ethnic, racial and religious identity. Since the Bosnian Franciscans of that time, we remember the ecclesiastical and intellectual elite among the Catholic population in Bosnia, the imagotypical statements about Jews in their works reflect both the Christian heritage through history and the Eurocentric view of the Others. Therefore, reconstructing the Bosnian Franciscans’ perceptions and ideas about the Other and the Different is, at the same time, reconstructing the genesis of the narrative about the Other, i.e., social and religious stereotypes and prejudices, as well as the continuity of talking about oneself by talking about the Different.
Maribavir (Livtencity)
Authors: CADTH
Published: January 2023

CADTH reimbursement reviews are comprehensive assessments of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness, as well as patient and clinician perspectives, of a drug or drug class.

The assessments inform non-binding recommendations that help guide the reimbursement decisions of Canada's federal, provincial, and territorial governments, with the exception of Quebec.

This review assesses maribavir (Livtencity) 400 mg (2 tablets of 200 mg) twice daily resulting in a daily dose of 800 mg.

Indication: Treatment of adults with post-transplant cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection or disease who are refractory (with or without genotypic resistance) to one or more prior antiviral therapies.
Modeling of street-scale pollutant dispersion by coupled simulation of chemical reaction, aerosol dynamics, and CFD
Authors: Lin Chao , Wang Yunyi , Ooka Ryozo , Flageul Cédric , Kim Youngseob , Kikumoto Hideki , Wang Zhizhao , Sartelet Karine
Published: January 2023

Abstract. In the urban environment, gas and particles impose adverse impacts on the health of pedestrians. The conventional computational fluid dynamics (CFD)
methods that regard pollutants as passive scalars cannot reproduce the
formation of secondary pollutants and lead to uncertain prediction. In this
study, SSH-aerosol, a modular box model that simulates the evolution of gas, primary and secondary aerosols, is coupled with the CFD software, OpenFOAM and Code_Saturne. The transient dispersion of pollutants
emitted from traffic in a street canyon is simulated using the unsteady
Reynolds-averaged Navier–Stokes equations (RANS) model. The simulated
concentrations of NO2, PM10, and black carbon (BC) are compared with
field measurements on a street of Greater Paris. The simulated NO2 and
PM10 concentrations based on the coupled model achieved better
agreement with measurement data than the conventional CFD simulation.
Meanwhile, the black carbon concentration is underestimated, probably partly because of the underestimation of non-exhaust emissions (tire and road wear). Aerosol dynamics lead to a large increase of ammonium nitrate and anthropogenic organic compounds from precursor gas emitted in the street canyon.
Storm Kyrill and the storms of mid-January 2007: Societal and Energy Impacts in Europe
Authors: Kettle Anthony J.
Published: January 2023

Abstract. January 2007 was a stormy period in Europe with impacts on
societal infrastructure and implications for energy meteorology. A series of
cyclones tracked across the North Atlantic and into Europe during the two
week period 8–22 January 2007. For many parts of Europe, Storm Kyrill on 18 January 2007 was the most important of these for the infrastructure damage
that it caused. It had the highest European storm-related insurance losses
in recent history. The storm spawned a high intensity derecho that started
in Germany and travelled across eastern Europe into the Black Sea region. It
was associated with severe convection, lightning, several tornadoes, and
strong wind gusts. The storm caused over 50 fatalities, widespread
disruption of transport and power networks, and a lot of forest damage. The
highest coastal water levels for the month at many tide gauge stations in
northwest Europe (and also for the year, in some cases) were registered
during Storm Kyrill. This contribution presents a literature review of the
storm characteristics and its impacts. This is followed by an analysis of
the North Sea tide gauge data to assess the storm surge, tidal variation,
and short-period seiche component around the North Sea. The water level
information is compared with shipping accidents and offshore incidents to
assess possible links. Unusually large waves had been registered at the
FINO1 offshore wind energy research platform and off the northern coast of
the Netherlands only a couple of months previously on 1 November 2006. While
Storm Kyrill caused a lot of societal damage on land areas, there was
comparatively little coastal damage around the North Sea and few reports of
offshore infrastructure damage linked to wave strikes.
A study of optical scattering modelling for mixed-phase polar stratospheric clouds
Authors: Cairo Francesco , Deshler Terry , Di Liberto Luca , Scoccione Andrea , Snels Marcel
Published: January 2023

Abstract. Scattering codes are used to study the optical properties of polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). Particle backscattering and depolarization coefficients can be computed with available scattering codes once the particle size distribution (PSD) is known and a suitable refractive index is assumed. However, PSCs often appear as external mixtures of supercooled ternary solution (STS) droplets, solid nitric acid trihydrate (NAT) and possibly ice particles, making the assumption of a single refractive index and a single morphology to model the scatterers questionable.
Here we consider a set of 15 coincident measurements of PSCs above McMurdo Station, Antarctica, using ground-based lidar, a balloon-borne optical particle counter (OPC) and in situ observations taken by a laser backscattersonde and OPC during four balloon stratospheric flights from Kiruna, Sweden. This unique dataset of microphysical and optical observations allows us to test the performances of optical scattering models when both spherical and aspherical scatterers of different composition and, possibly, shapes are present. We consider particles as STS if their radius is below a certain threshold value Rth and NAT or possibly ice if it is above it. The refractive indices are assumed known from the literature. Mie scattering is used for the STS, assumed spherical. Scattering from NAT particles, considered spheroids of different aspect ratio (AR), is treated with T-matrix results where applicable. The geometric-optics–integral-equation approach is used whenever the particle size parameter is too large to allow for a convergence of the T-matrix method.
The parameters Rth and AR of our model have been varied between 0.1 and 2 µm and between 0.3 and 3, respectively, and the calculated backscattering coefficient and depolarization were compared with the observed ones. The best agreement was found for Rth between 0.5 and 0.8 µm and for AR less than 0.55 and greater than 1.5.
To further constrain the variability of AR within the identified intervals, we have sought an agreement with the experimental data by varying AR on a case-by-case basis and further optimizing the agreement by a proper choice of AR smaller than 0.55 and greater than 1.5 and Rth within the interval 0.5 and 0.8 µm. The ARs identified in this way cluster around the values 0.5 and 2.5.
The comparison of the calculations with the measurements is presented and discussed. The results of this work help to set limits to the variability of the dimensions and asphericity of PSC solid particles, within the limits of applicability of our model based on the T-matrix theory of scattering and on assumptions on a common particle shape in a PSD and a common threshold radius for all the PSDs.
The weather diary of Georg Christoph Eimmart for Nuremberg, 1695–1704
Authors: Brönnimann Stefan
Published: January 2023

Abstract. Weather diaries have long been used to reconstruct past climate. However, they could also be used to reconstruct past weather. Weather reconstructions could help to better understand the mechanisms behind, and impacts of, climatic changes. However, reconstructing the day-to-day weather requires many diaries from different regions covering the same period, ideally combined with instrumental measurements. In this paper, I describe the weather diary of Georg Christoph Eimmart from Nuremberg, covering the period 1695 to 1704, which was particularly cold in Europe. The diary was imaged from the Russian National Library in St. Petersburg and then digitized. It contains twice daily weather conditions in symbolic form, wind direction, and information on precipitation and temperature in text form. Symbols changed during the first two years, after which a much reduced (and stable) set of symbols was used. Re-coding all days according to the later set of symbols, I find no signs of inconsistency over time in symbols, wind direction, and precipitation information extracted from the text. Comparisons with other sources confirm the day-to-day weather information in the diary. For instance, the wind direction in Nuremberg agrees with the daily pressure gradient between Jena and Paris. Three case studies further confirm the meteorological correctness of the information. This is shown on behalf of an eight-day sequence of stormy weather in 1702, a study of the severe winter of 1697/8, and of the summer of 1695, which was cold and wet, possibly related to tropical volcanic eruptions. The examples underline the consistency of the weather diary with other information and suggest that weather reconstructions as far back as the late 17th century might become possible. However, the spatial information is limited, and any approach arguably needs to make good use of the temporal sequence of information.
Improving Antarctic Bottom Water precursors in NEMO for climate applications
Authors: Hutchinson Katherine , Deshayes Julie , Éthé Christian , Rousset Clément , de Lavergne Casimir , Vancoppenolle Martin , Jourdain Nicolas C. , Mathiot Pierre
Published: January 2023

Abstract. The world’s largest ice shelves are found in the Antarctic Weddell and Ross Seas where complex interactions between the atmosphere, sea ice, ice shelves and ocean transform shelf waters into High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) and Ice Shelf Water (ISW), the parent waters of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW). This process feeds the lower limb of the global overturning circulation as AABW, the world’s densest and deepest water-mass, spreads outwards from Antarctica. None of the coupled climate models contributing to CMIP6 directly simulated ocean-ice shelf interactions, thereby omitting a potentially critical piece of the climate puzzle. As a first step towards better representing these processes in a global ocean model, we run a 1° resolution forced configuration of NEMO (eORCA1) to explicitly simulate circulation beneath Filchner-Ronne (FRIS), Larsen C (LCIS), and Ross (RIS) ice shelves. These locations are thought to supply the majority of the source waters for AABW and so melt in all other cavities is provisionally prescribed. Results show that the grid resolution of 1° is sufficient to produce melt rate patterns and net melt rates of FRIS (117 ± 21 Gt/yr), LCIS (36 + 7 Gt/yr) and RIS (112 + 22 Gt/yr) that agree well with both high resolution models and satellite measurements. Most notably, allowing sub-ice shelf circulation reduces salinity biases (0.1 psu), produces the previously unresolved water mass ISW, and re-organises the shelf circulation to bring the regional model hydrography closer to observations. A change in AABW within the Weddell and Ross Seas towards colder, fresher values is identified but the magnitude is limited by the absence of a realistic overflow. This study presents a NEMO configuration that can be used for climate applications with improved realism of the Antarctic continental shelf circulation and a better representation of the precursors of AABW.
NH-SWE: Northern Hemisphere Snow Water Equivalent dataset based on in-situ snow depth time series
Authors: Fontrodona-Bach Adrià , Schaefli Bettina , Woods Ross , Teuling Adriaan J. , Larsen Joshua R.
Published: January 2023

Abstract. Ground-based datasets of observed Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) are scarce, while gridded SWE estimates from remote-sensing and climate reanalysis are unable to resolve the high spatial variability of snow on the ground. Long-term ground observations of snow depth, in combination with models that can accurately convert snow depth to SWE, can fill this observational gap. Here, we provide a new SWE dataset (NH-SWE) that encompasses 11,071 stations in the Northern Hemisphere, and is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7515603 (Fontrodona-Bach et al., 2023). This new dataset provides daily time series of SWE, varying in length between one and seventy-three years, spanning the period 1950–2022 and covering a wide range of snow climates including many mountainous regions. At each station, observed snow depth was converted to SWE using an established snow-depth-to-SWE conversion model, with excellent model performance using regionalised parameters based on climate variables. The accuracy of the model after parameter regionalisation is comparable to that of the calibrated model. The key advantages and strengths of the regionalised model presented here are its transferability across climates and the high performance in modelling daily SWE dynamics in terms of peak SWE, total snowmelt and duration of the melt season, as assessed here against a comparison model. This dataset is particularly useful for studies that require accurate time series of SWE dynamics, timing of snowmelt onset, and snowmelt totals and duration. It can e.g. be used for climate change impact analyses, water resources assessment and management, validation of remote sensing of snow, hydrological modelling and snow data assimilation into climate models.
Evaluation of a cloudy cold-air pool in the Columbia River basin in different versions of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model
Authors: Adler Bianca , Wilczak James M. , Kenyon Jaymes , Bianco Laura , Djalalova Irina V. , Olson Joseph B. , Turner David D.
Published: January 2023

Abstract. The accurate forecast of persistent orographic cold-air pools in numerical weather prediction models is essential for the optimal integration of wind energy into the electrical grid during these events. Model development efforts during the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2) aimed to address the challenges related to this. We evaluated three versions of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model with two different horizontal grid spacings against in situ and remote sensing observations to investigate how developments in physical parameterizations and numerical methods targeted during WFIP2 impacted the simulation of a persistent cold-air pool in the Columbia River basin. Differences amongst model versions were most apparent in simulated temperature and low-level cloud fields during the persistent phase of the cold-air pool.
The model developments led to an enhanced low-level cloud cover, resulting in better agreement with the observations. This removed a diurnal cycle in the near-surface temperature bias at stations throughout the basin by reducing a cold bias during the night and a warm bias during the day. However, low-level clouds did not clear sufficiently during daytime in the newest model version, which leaves room for further model developments. The model developments also led to a better representation of the decay of the cold-air pool by slowing down its erosion.
The suitability of a seasonal ensemble hybrid framework including data-driven approaches for hydrological forecasting
Authors: Hauswirth Sandra M. , Bierkens Marc F. P. , Beijk Vincent , Wanders Niko
Published: January 2023

Abstract. Hydrological forecasts are important for operational water management and near-future planning, even more so in light of the increased occurrences of extreme events such as floods and droughts. Having a forecasting framework, which is flexible in terms of input forcings and forecasting locations (local, regional, or national) that can deliver this information in fast and computational efficient manner, is critical. In this study, the suitability of a hybrid forecasting framework, combining data-driven approaches and seasonal (re)forecasting information from dynamical models, to predict hydrological variables was explored. Target variables include discharge and surface water levels for various stations at a national scale, with the Netherlands as the focus. Five different machine learning (ML) models, ranging from simple to more complex and trained on historical observations of discharge, precipitation, evaporation, and seawater levels, were run with seasonal (re)forecast data, including the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) and ECMWF seasonal forecast system (SEAS5), of these driver variables in a hindcast setting. The results were evaluated using the evaluation metrics, i.e. anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), continuous ranked probability (skill) score (CRPS and CRPSS), and Brier skill score (BSS), in comparison to a climatological reference hindcast. Aggregating the results of all stations and ML models revealed that the hindcasting framework outperformed the climatological reference forecasts by roughly 60 % for discharge predictions (80 % for surface water level predictions). Skilful prediction for the first lead month, independently of the initialization month, can be made for discharge. The skill extends up to 2–3 months for spring months due to snowmelt dynamic captured in the training phase of the model. Surface water level hindcasts showed similar skill and skilful lead times. While the different ML models showed differences in performance during a testing and training phase using historical observations, running the ML framework in a hindcast setting showed only minor differences between the models, which is attributed to the uncertainty in seasonal forecasts. However, despite being trained on historical observations, the hybrid framework used in this study shows similar skilful predictions to previous large-scale forecasting systems. With our study, we show that a hybrid framework is able to bring location-specific skilful seasonal forecast information with global seasonal forecast inputs. At the same time, our hybrid approach is flexible and fast, and as such, a hybrid framework could be adapted to make it even more interesting to water managers and their needs, for instance, as part of a fast model-predictive control framework.
Small Group Discussion Assistance In Constructing Teaching Modules At The Plan Steps Of Lesson Study
Authors: Yanto Widayanto Wido
Published: January 2023

Lesson study is a learning activity carried out by a group of teachers and education experts which includes 3 (three) steps of activity, namely planning (plan), implementation of learning (do) and observation followed by reflection (see) on a planning and implementation of learning. FGD means systematic activities of collecting data and information about a specific problem related to constructing teaching module through group discussion. This descriptive qualitative study aims to describe the effectiveness of FGDs in constructing teaching module to meet the implementation of the 2022 curriculum or Kurikulum Merdeka (Kurmer) through lesson study. The finding said that the lesson study participants were able to construct teaching module well. It was concluded that FGDs assistance were effective in constructing teaching module through lesson study.
Fabrication of Spectro-Animation as a Learning Media to Improve Student Understanding on Bohr's Concept of Atomic Structure
Authors: Agustina Andri , Anam Khoirul , Bulan Sri
Published: January 2023

The purpose of this study to produce a learning media is spectro-animation used in learning Bohr atomic structure. Media spectro-animation consists of hardware integrated with animation software. This study used research and development (R&D) type Borg and Gall, through three phases: research design and literature studies, designing and manufacturing, and product development. Media spectro-animation is tested validation and feasibility tested by experts and chemistry teachers. The results of the validation got 94,5 and  94,0 average score with very good category. The final test product is done to 20 students of class X MIPA 1. There are increase understanding of the students' average score of 64 to pre-test mean score of post-test 81. The results of the t-test significance (sig) value 0.000 < 0.05, significant difference learning Bohr atomic structure before and after using the media. Feasibility  by experts and chemistry teachers with indicators of effectiveness, efficiency and practicality media, each a score of 98,0 and 93,0 categories are very good. It can be concluded that media spectro-animation effective and can be implemented in learning Bohr atomic structure.