bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Disturbances in a VLF radio signal prior the M=4.7 offshore Anzio (central Italy) earthquake on 22 August 2005
Authors: Biagi P. F. , Castellana L. , Maggipinto T. , Loiacono D. , Augelli V. , Schiavulli L. , Ermini A. , Capozzi V. , Solovieva M. S. , Rozhnoi A. A. , Molchanov O. A. , Hayakawa M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. On 22 August 2005 an earthquake with magnitude M=4.7 occurred in the Anzio (central Italy) offshore area. From 2002, a VLF-LF radio receiver is into operation in Bari (southern Italy). The intensity and the phase of the signals transmitted by GB (f=16 kHz, United Kingdom), FR (f=20.9 kHz, France), GE (f=23.4 kHz, Germany), IC (f=37.5 kHz, Island) and IT (f=54 kHz, Sicily, Italy) has been monitored with a 5 s sampling rate. The previous epicenter is near enough to some of the radio paths and the data collected were studied in order to reveal possible seismic effects. The raw analysis revealed a clear drop in the intensity of the FR radio signal on 19 August. Then the wavelet analysis was applied to the intensity and the phase data of the different radio signals. In the mentioned day an increase in the band 60–120 min was revealed in the spectra of the FR signal. Then the principal component analysis was applied and again the 19 August stood up as an anomalous day for the FR radio signal. The path of this signal, among the paths of the five radio signals collected by the Bari receiver, is the nearest to the mentioned epicentre and the anomaly revealed on 19 August appears as a precursor of the earthquake. This result confirms the possible precursor revealed by other researchers in the air Rn content in a site located 5 miles far from the epicenter.
Optimal design under uncertainty of a passive defense structure against snow avalanches: from a general Bayesian framework to a simple analytical model
Authors: Eckert N. , Parent E. , Faug T. , Naaim M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. For snow avalanches, passive defense structures are generally designed by considering high return period events. In this paper, taking inspiration from other natural hazards, an alternative method based on the maximization of the economic benefit of the defense structure is proposed. A general Bayesian framework is described first. Special attention is given to the problem of taking the poor local information into account in the decision-making process. Therefore, simplifying assumptions are made. The avalanche hazard is represented by a Peak Over Threshold (POT) model. The influence of the dam is quantified in terms of runout distance reduction with a simple relation derived from small-scale experiments using granular media. The costs corresponding to dam construction and the damage to the element at risk are roughly evaluated for each dam height-hazard value pair, with damage evaluation corresponding to the maximal expected loss. Both the classical and the Bayesian risk functions can then be computed analytically. The results are illustrated with a case study from the French avalanche database. A sensitivity analysis is performed and modelling assumptions are discussed in addition to possible further developments.
Seismicity assessment for the different regions in and around Turkey based on instrumental data: Gumbel first asymptotic distribution and Gutenberg-Richter cumulative frequency law
Authors: Bayrak Y. , Öztürk S. , Koravos G. Ch. , Leventakis G. A. , Tsapanos T. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The evaluation of the seismicity in 24 seismic regions, in which Turkey and adjacent areas divided, is carried out. For this purpose two methods are adopted. The first is the "whole process" which follows the Gutenberg and Richter distribution frequency-magnitude law, while the second one is the "part process" which is well known as the theory of extreme values. This theory was developed by Gumbel in order to solve many geophysical problems. The first asymptotic distribution of extremes was used in the present study. The advantage of the method is that it does not required analysis of the whole data set. It uses, instead, the sequence of earthquakes with the largest magnitudes in a set of predetermined equal-time intervals. The parameters a and b were estimated from both methods. For the goodness of fit, to the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude law, the maximum likelihood approach is applied. The b-values calculated from Gutenberg and Richter frequency-magnitude law, reveal a better fit to the tectonic environment of the 24 seismic regions of Turkey and its surroundings examining in this study. On the other hand b-values evaluated from Gumbel's first distribution, do not adjust to the particular tectonics of the 24 seismic regions. The modal value a1/b adopted from Gutenberg-Richter for the 24 seismic regions were calculated, as well. An effort made to correlate the tectonics of the area with the spatial distribution of the various computed seismic parameter, while maps were produced for this purpose. These maps provide a detail image of seismicity and local tectonics for the whole investigated area. The results showed that the Aegean arc and the North Anatolian fault zone ranked among to the first positions between the 24 seismic regions researched.
Statistical correlation of spectral broadening in VLF transmitter signal and low-frequency ionospheric turbulence from observation on DEMETER satellite
Authors: Rozhnoi A. , Solovieva M. , Molchanov O. , Akentieva O. , Berthelier J. J. , Parrot M. , Biagi P. F. , Hayakawa M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In our earlier papers we have found the effect of VLF transmitter signal depression over epicenters of the large earthquakes from observation on the French DEMETER satellite that can be considered as new method of global diagnostics of seismic influence on the ionosphere. At present paper we investigate a possibility VLF signal-ionospheric turbulence interaction using additional characteristic of VLF signal-spectrum broadening. This characteristic is important for estimation of the interaction type: linear or nonlinear scattering. Our main results are the following: – There are two zones of increased spectrum broadening, which are centered near magnetic latitudes Φ=±10° and Φ=±40°. Basing on the previous case study research and ground ionosonde registrations, probably it is evidence of nonlinear (active) scattering of VLF signal on the ionospheric turbulence. However occurrence rate of spectrum broadening in the middle-latitude area is higher than in the near-equatorial zone (~15–20% in comparison with ~100% in former area) that is probably coincides with the rate of ionospheric turbulence. – From two years statistics of observation in the selected 3 low-latitude regions and 1 middle-latitude region inside reception area of VLF signal from NWC transmitter we find a correlation of spectrum broadening neither with ion-cyclotron noise (f=150–500 Hz), which possibly means poor representation of the turbulence by the noise due to its mixture with natural ELF emission (which correlates with whistler), nor with magnetic storm activity. – We find rather evident correlation of ion-cyclotron frequency noise, VLF signal depression and weak correlation of spectrum broadening with seismicity in the middle-latitude region over Japan. But in the low-latitude regions we do not find such a correlation. Statistical decrease of VLF signal supports our previous case study results. However rather weak spectrum broadening-seismicity statistical correlation means probably that passive scattering prevails upon nonlinear (active) one.
The use of airborne LiDAR data for the analysis of debris flow events in Switzerland
Authors: Scheidl C. , Rickenmann D. , Chiari M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A methodology of magnitude estimates for debris flow events is described using airborne LiDAR data. Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) is a widely used technology to generate digital elevation information. LiDAR data in alpine regions can be obtained by several commercial companies where the automated filtering process is proprietary and varies from companies to companies. This study describes the analysis of geomorphologic changes using digital terrain models derived from commercial LiDAR data. The estimation of the deposition volumes is based on two digital terrain models covering the same area but differing in their time of survey. In this study two surveyed deposition areas of debris flows, located in the canton of Berne, Switzerland, were chosen as test cases. We discuss different grid interpolating techniques, other preliminary work and the accuracy of the used LiDAR data and volume estimates.
Electrical precursors of earthquakes in Aegean Sea during the last decade (1997–2007)
Authors: Dologlou E. , Hadjicontis V. , Mavromatou C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The purpose of this study is to investigate some properties of the Seismic Electric Signals (SES) that preceded large earthquakes which occurred in the Aegean Sea (24–27)° E, (37–40)° N, during the last decade. Our main interest is focused on the important parameter of the lead time Δt, which is the time difference between the occurrence of the earthquake and the detection of the associated SES signal. Two groups of lead times, a short (i.e. Δt~ some weeks) and a long one (Δt~ some months) have been observed. We examine whether this difference could be related to the regional tectonics. Furthermore the property of SES selectivity is discussed.
About possibility to locate an EQ epicenter using parameters of ELF/ULF preseismic emission
Authors: Schekotov A. Y. , Molchanov O. A. , Hayakawa M. , Fedorov E. N. , Chebrov V. N. , Sinitsin V. I. , Gordeev E. E. , Andreevsky S. E. , Belyaev G. G. , Yagova N. V. , Gladishev V. A. , Baransky L. N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A relation between parameters of preseismic ULF/ELF emissions and EQ is studied. The magnetic data measured at Karymshino station (Kamchatka, Russia) along with data on local seismic activity during eight years of observations (2001–2008) are taken for the analysis. Source azimuth is detected in different techniques, based on the analysis of the total field and its polarized pulsed component. The latter technique shows a better accuracy in the source azimuth detection. The errors of the method are associated with existence of non-seismic sources and with use of one-point observation. The second error can be eliminated by development of multi-point observations.
Triggered creep rate on the Ismetpasa segment of the North Anatolian Fault
Authors: Kutoglu H. S. , Akcin H. , Kemaldere H. , Gormus K. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Ismetpasa segment of the North Anatolian Fault is one of the rare places in the world where aseismic creep event has been observed. This segment was ruptured during both the 1944, Mw=7.2, Gerede and 1951, Mw=6.9, Kursunlu earthquakes. After these earthquakes, the segment has not experienced a major earthquake anymore. Starting from 1957, many studies using different technologies have been carried out to determine the creep rate of the segment. All these studies until 2002 revealed that the creep movement of the segment slowed down. The new observation campaign of the Ismetpasa geodetic network shows that the Ismetpasa segment has ceased the slowing trend and started to gain speed. This might be interpreted as an increasing earthquake risk for this segment.
Probabilistic seismic hazard in terms of intensities for Bulgaria and Romania – updated hazard maps
Authors: Leydecker G. , Busche H. , Bonjer K.-P. , Schmitt T. , Kaiser D. , Simeonova S. , Solakov D. , Ardeleanu L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Since 2007 Bulgaria and Romania are members of the European Union. All member states have to introduce the European earthquake building code EUROCODE 8 (EC 8) in the coming years. Therefore, new seismic hazard maps have to be calculated according to the recommendations in EC 8. Here the authors present a novel approach to compute such hazard maps. We prefer to use the macroseismic intensity as hazard parameter because of two reasons: - The irregular azimuthal attenuation pattern of the Vrancea intermediate depth earthquakes can be advantageously taken into account by using detailed macroseismic maps. - The intensity is directly related to the degree of damage and is the original information in the historical earthquake catalogues. The main base of our probabilistic analysis is the earthquake catalogue for SE-Europe (Shebalin et al., 1998) in combination with national and regional catalogues. Fore- and aftershocks were removed. Seismic source zones inside an area of about 200 km around Romania and Bulgaria were defined based on seismicity, neotectonics and geological development. For each seismic source the intensity-frequency relation was calculated and a maximum possible earthquake as well as a seismogenic depth was estimated. An appropriate attenuation law was assumed. To cope with the irregular isoseismals of the Vrancea intermediate depth earthquakes, a factor Ω was included in the macroseismic attenuation law. Using detailed macroseismic maps of three strong intermediate depth earthquakes, Ω was calculated for each observation. Strong local variations of Ω are avoided by averaging within grid cells of 0.5 degree in longitude and 0.25 degree in latitude. The contributions of all seismic sources, the crustal normal depth source zones and the Vrancea intermediate depth zone, were summed up and the annual probability of exceedance was calculated. The contribution of the Vrancea intermediate depth zone to each grid point was computed with the corresponding representative Ω of this point; a seismogenic depth of 120 km has been assumed. Each final seismic hazard map is a combination of two maps, the one for normal depth source zones and the one for the Vrancea intermediate depth zone. This is illustrated for a recurrence period of 475 years. Additional hazard maps were calculated for different recurrence periods.
Stochastic analysis of geo-electric field singularities as seismically correlated candidates
Authors: Konstantaras A. , Fouskitakis G. N. , Makris J. P. , Vallianatos F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The study of the Earth's electromagnetic field prior to the occurrence of strong seismic events has repeatedly revealed cases where transient electric potential anomalies, often deemed as possible earthquake precursors, were observed on electromagnetic field recordings. In an attempt to understand the nature of such signals, several models have been proposed based upon the exhibited characteristics of the observed anomalies, often supported by different mathematical models simulating possible generation mechanisms. This paper discusses a candidate Electric Earthquake Precursor (EEP) signal, accompanying the Kythira Mw=6.9 earthquake in Greece (occurred on 8 January 2006). Neuro-Fuzzy along with stochastic models are currently incorporated for the modelling and analysis of the recorded Earth's electric field. The results of the study indicate that the Neuro-Fuzzy model treats the observed possible EEP signal as an external additive component to the recorded Earth's electric field, while the stochastic TARMA models accurately represent the recorded electric signals in both the time and the frequency domains. The complementary findings of both methodologies might potentially contribute to the future development of a more accurate and generalized framework for the efficient recognition and characterization of possible EEP's.
Tree-ring analysis in natural hazards research – an overview
Authors: Stoffel M. , Bollschweiler M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The understanding of geomorphic processes and knowledge of past events are important tasks for the assessment of natural hazards. Tree rings have on varied occasions proved to be a reliable tool for the acquisition of data on past events. In this review paper, we provide an overview on the use of tree rings in natural hazards research, starting with a description of the different types of disturbances by geomorphic processes and the resulting growth reactions. Thereafter, a summary is presented on the different methods commonly used for the analysis and interpretation of reactions in affected trees. We illustrate selected results from dendrogeomorphological investigations of geomorphic processes with an emphasis on fluvial (e.g., flooding, debris flows) and mass-movement processes (e.g., landslides, snow avalanche), where lots of data have been generated over the past few decades. We also present results from rockfall and permafrost studies, where data are much scarcer, albeit data from tree-ring studies have proved to be of great value in these fields as well. Most studies using tree rings have focused on alpine environments in Europe and North America, whereas other parts of the world have been widely neglected by dendrogeomorphologists so far. We therefore challenge researchers to focus on other regions with distinct climates as well, to look on less frequently studied processes as well and to broaden and improve approaches and methods commonly used in tree-ring research so as to allow a better understanding of geomorphic processes, natural hazards and risk.
Response of Pinus sylvestris roots to sheet-erosion exposure: an anatomical approach
Authors: Rubiales J. M. , Bodoque J. M. , Ballesteros J. A. , Diez-Herrero A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Anatomical changes of exposed tree roots are valuable tools to date erosion events, but the responses of diverse species under different types of erosion need still to be studied in detail. In this paper we analyze the histological changes that occur in roots of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) subjected to continuous denudation. A descriptive and quantitative study was conducted in the Senda Schmidt, a popular trail located on the northern slope of the Sierra de Guadarrama (Central Iberian System, Spain). Measurement of significant parameters allowed the moment of exposure of the roots to be identified. These parameters were: a) width of the growth ring; b) number of cells per ring; c) percentage of latewood and d) diameter of cellular light in earlywood. A one-way analysis ANOVA was also carried out in order to establish statistically significant differences between homogeneous groups of measurements in pre-exposed and exposed roots. Based on these analyses, Scots pine roots show a remarkable anatomical response to sheet-erosion exposure. Increased growth in the ring is accompanied by a slight reduction of the cell lumina of the earlywood tracheids. At the end of the ring, several rows of thick-walled tracheids define latewood tissue and visible annual borders very clearly. Furthermore, resin ducts often appear in tangential rows, increasing resin density in the tissue. All of these indicators made it possible to determine with precision the first year of exposure and to estimate precisely sheet erosion rates.
Concept of dealing with uncertainty in radar-based data for hydrological purpose
Authors: Szturc J. , Ośródka K. , Jurczyk A. , Jelonek L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Precipitation radar-based data constitute essential input to Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) and rainfall-runoff models, however the data introduce a number of errors. Thus their uncertainty should be determined to provide end-users with more reliable information about forecasts. The common idea is to use Quality Index (QI) scheme for some number of quality parameters on the assumption that: (1) relationship between the parameters and relevant quality indexes is linear; (2) averaged QI is a weighted average of all particular indexes. The uncertainty parameters can be topography-dependent, resulting from spatial and temporal distribution of data, etc. Uncertainty in radar-based data is described by gamma PDF of precipitation, and it is proposed to determine the probability density function (PDF) parameters basing on QI values. Practically, precipitation is presented as ensemble of quantiles of the PDF and such an ensemble can constitute input to rainfall-runoff modelling. Since the ensemble is a precipitation input, the hydrological model needs to be activated according to a number of input members.
A probabilistic view on the August 2005 floods in the upper Rhine catchment
Authors: Jaun S. , Ahrens B. , Walser A. , Ewen T. , Schär C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Appropriate precautions in the case of flood occurrence often require long lead times (several days) in hydrological forecasting. This in turn implies large uncertainties that are mainly inherited from the meteorological precipitation forecast. Here we present a case study of the extreme flood event of August 2005 in the Swiss part of the Rhine catchment (total area 34 550 km2). This event caused tremendous damage and was associated with precipitation amounts and flood peaks with return periods beyond 10 to 100 years. To deal with the underlying intrinsic predictability limitations, a probabilistic forecasting system is tested, which is based on a hydrological-meteorological ensemble prediction system. The meteorological component of the system is the operational limited-area COSMO-LEPS that downscales the ECMWF ensemble prediction system to a horizontal resolution of 10 km, while the hydrological component is based on the semi-distributed hydrological model PREVAH with a spatial resolution of 500 m. We document the setup of the coupled system and assess its performance for the flood event under consideration. We show that the probabilistic meteorological-hydrological ensemble prediction chain is quite effective and provides additional guidance for extreme event forecasting, in comparison to a purely deterministic forecasting system. For the case studied, it is also shown that most of the benefits of the probabilistic approach may be realized with a comparatively small ensemble size of 10 members.
Using Bayesian methods for the parameter estimation of deformation monitoring networks
Authors: Tanir E. , Felsenstein K. , Yalcinkaya M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In order to investigate the deformations of an area or an object, geodetic observations are repeated at different time epochs and then these observations of each period are adjusted independently. From the coordinate differences between the epochs the input parameters of a deformation model are estimated. The decision about the deformation is given by appropriate models using the parameter estimation results from each observation period. So, we have to be sure that we use accurately taken observations (assessing the quality of observations) and that we also use an appropriate mathematical model for both adjustment of period measurements and for the deformation modelling (Caspary, 2000). All inaccuracies of the model, especially systematic and gross errors in the observations, as well as incorrectly evaluated a priori variances will contaminate the results and lead to apparent deformations. Therefore, it is of prime importance to employ all known methods which can contribute to the development of a realistic model. In Albertella et al. (2005), a new testing procedure from Bayesian point of view in deformation analysis was developed by taking into consideration prior information about the displacements in case estimated displacements are small w.r.t. (with respect to) measurement precision. Within our study, we want to introduce additional parameter estimation from the Bayesian point of view for a deformation monitoring network which is constructed for landslide monitoring in Macka in the province of Trabzon in north eastern Turkey. We used LSQ parameter estimation results to set up prior information for this additional parameter estimation procedure. The Bayesian inference allows evaluating the probability of an event by available prior evidences and collected observations. Bayes theorem underlines that the observations modify through the likelihood function the prior knowledge of the parameters, thus leading to the posterior density function of the parameters themselves.
Probabilistic forecasting of shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides using real-time numerical weather predictions
Authors: Schmidt J. , Turek G. , Clark M. P. , Uddstrom M. , Dymond J. R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A project established at the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) in New Zealand is aimed at developing a prototype of a real-time landslide forecasting system. The objective is to predict temporal changes in landslide probability for shallow, rainfall-triggered landslides, based on quantitative weather forecasts from numerical weather prediction models. Global weather forecasts from the United Kingdom Met Office (MO) Numerical Weather Prediction model (NWP) are coupled with a regional data assimilating NWP model (New Zealand Limited Area Model, NZLAM) to forecast atmospheric variables such as precipitation and temperature up to 48 h ahead for all of New Zealand. The weather forecasts are fed into a hydrologic model to predict development of soil moisture and groundwater levels. The forecasted catchment-scale patterns in soil moisture and soil saturation are then downscaled using topographic indices to predict soil moisture status at the local scale, and an infinite slope stability model is applied to determine the triggering soil water threshold at a local scale. The model uses uncertainty of soil parameters to produce probabilistic forecasts of spatio-temporal landslide occurrence 48~h ahead. The system was evaluated for a damaging landslide event in New Zealand. Comparison with landslide densities estimated from satellite imagery resulted in hit rates of 70–90%.
Wave conditions in the Baltic Proper and in the Gulf of Finland during windstorm Gudrun
Authors: Soomere T. , Behrens A. , Tuomi L. , Nielsen J. W.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Wave conditions in the northern Baltic Proper during windstorm Erwin/Gudrun (January 2005) are analysed based on in situ measurements in three locations and output of operational wave models from the German Weather Forecast Service, the Danish Meteorological Institute and the Finnish Institute of Marine Research. The measured significant wave height reached 7.2 m in the northern Baltic Proper and 4.5 m in the Gulf of Finland. The roughest wave conditions, estimated from the comparison of the forecast and measured data, occurred remote from the sensors, off the coasts of Saaremaa and Latvia where the significant wave height was about 9.5 m. Peak periods exceeded 12 s in a large part of the northern Baltic Proper and in the central part of the Gulf of Finland.
A conceptual vulnerability and risk framework as outline to identify capabilities of remote sensing
Authors: Taubenböck H. , Post J. , Roth A. , Zosseder K. , Strunz G. , Dech S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This study aims at creating a holistic conceptual approach systematizing the interrelation of (natural) hazards, vulnerability and risk. A general hierarchical risk meta-framework presents potentially affected components of a given system, such as its physical, demographic, social, economic, political or ecological spheres, depending on the particular hazard. Based on this general meta-framework, measurable indicators are specified for the system "urban area" as an example. This framework is used as an outline to identify the capabilities of remote sensing to contribute to the assessment of risk. Various indicators contributing to the outline utilizing diverse remote sensing data and methods are presented. Examples such as built-up density, main infrastructure or population distribution identify the capabilities of remote sensing within the holistic perspective of the framework. It is shown how indexing enables a multilayer analysis of the complex and small-scale urban landscape to take different types of spatial indicators into account to simulate concurrence. The result is an assessment of the spatial distribution of risks within an urban area in the case of an earthquake and its secondary threats, using an inductive method. The results show the principal capabilities of remote sensing to contribute to the identification of physical and demographic aspects of vulnerability, as well as provide indicators for the spatial distribution of natural hazards. Aspects of social, economic or political indicators represent limitations of remote sensing for an assessment complying with the holistic risk framework.
Validating numerical simulations of snow avalanches using dendrochronology: the Cerro Ventana event in Northern Patagonia, Argentina
Authors: Casteller A. , Christen M. , Villalba R. , Martínez H. , Stöckli V. , Leiva J. C. , Bartelt P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The damage caused by snow avalanches to property and human lives is underestimated in many regions around the world, especially where this natural hazard remains poorly documented. One such region is the Argentinean Andes, where numerous settlements are threatened almost every winter by large snow avalanches. On 1 September 2002, the largest tragedy in the history of Argentinean mountaineering took place at Cerro Ventana, Northern Patagonia: nine persons were killed and seven others injured by a snow avalanche. In this paper, we combine both numerical modeling and dendrochronological investigations to reconstruct this event. Using information released by local governmental authorities and compiled in the field, the avalanche event was numerically simulated using the avalanche dynamics programs AVAL-1D and RAMMS. Avalanche characteristics, such as extent and date were determined using dendrochronological techniques. Model simulation results were compared with documentary and tree-ring evidences for the 2002 event. Our results show a good agreement between the simulated projection of the avalanche and its reconstructed extent using tree-ring records. Differences between the observed and the simulated avalanche, principally related to the snow height deposition in the run-out zone, are mostly attributed to the low resolution of the digital elevation model used to represent the valley topography. The main contributions of this study are (1) to provide the first calibration of numerical avalanche models for the Patagonian Andes and (2) to highlight the potential of Nothofagus pumilio tree-ring records to reconstruct past snow-avalanche events in time and space. Future research should focus on testing this combined approach in other forested regions of the Andes.
GIS-based two-dimensional numerical simulation of rainfall-induced debris flow
Authors: Wang C. , Li S. , Esaki T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper aims to present a useful numerical method to simulate the propagation and deposition of debris flow across the three dimensional complex terrain. A depth-averaged two-dimensional numerical model is developed, in which the debris and water mixture is assumed to be continuous, incompressible, unsteady flow. The model is based on the continuity equations and Navier-Stokes equations. Raster grid networks of digital elevation model in GIS provide a uniform grid system to describe complex topography. As the raster grid can be used as the finite difference mesh, the continuity and momentum equations are solved numerically using the finite difference method. The numerical model is applied to simulate the rainfall-induced debris flow occurred in 20 July 2003, in Minamata City of southern Kyushu, Japan. The simulation reproduces the propagation and deposition and the results are in good agreement with the field investigation. The synthesis of numerical method and GIS makes possible the solution of debris flow over a realistic terrain, and can be used to estimate the flow range, and to define potentially hazardous areas for homes and road section.
Improvements of safety conditions of unstable rock slopes through the use of explosives
Authors: Casale M. , Oggeri C. , Peila D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The paper discusses operations aimed at creating a safer natural or man made rock slope by artificially inducing the displacement of unstable elements by blasting. A detailed analysis of the problems with the use of explosives present when conducting these activities is carried out focusing on the advantages and disadvantages of this technology. The results of two examples of demolition of instable rock elements are presented and discussed thus providing suggestions for future blasting designs.
Are floods in part a form of land use externality?
Authors: Dorner W. , Porter M. , Metzka R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Peak and volume of river flows are functions of the catchment surface characteristics. This means that any impacts to the run-off regime (for example surface sealing and river training) could affect people and land users in the lower system. The costs of flood defence or compensation of damages are usually not included in the economic calculation of the upstream land owner or land user. In economic terms these effects are referred to as unidirectional externalities. This paper presents a methodology to identify externalities related to land use and run-off and describes the relevant cause-effect relations and how they can be modelled. The Herzogbach is a small tributary of the Danube River in Lower Bavaria. It is located in a rural area, dominated by intensive farming practices. A combination of hydrological and hydraulic modelling provided the core of the project methodology to allow the interpretation of economic data. Comparisons of damage estimates resulting from different hydrological scenarios based on different land uses, and flood mitigation costs were used to show the economic significance of human impacts.
Spatial variability and potential impacts of climate change on flood and debris flow hazard zone mapping and implications for risk management
Authors: Staffler H. , Pollinger R. , Zischg A. , Mani P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The main goals of this study were to identify the alpine torrent catchments that are sensitive to climatic changes and to assess the robustness of the methods for the elaboration of flood and debris flow hazard zone maps to specific effects of climate changes. In this study, a procedure for the identification and localization of torrent catchments in which the climate scenarios will modify the hazard situation was developed. In two case studies, the impacts of a potential increase of precipitation intensities to the delimited hazard zones were studied. The identification and localization of the torrent and river catchments, where unfavourable changes in the hazard situation occur, could eliminate speculative and unnecessary measures against the impacts of climate changes like a general enlargement of hazard zones or a general over dimensioning of protection structures for the whole territory. The results showed a high spatial variability of the sensitivity of catchments to climate changes. In sensitive catchments, the sediment management in alpine torrents will meet future challenges due to a higher rate for sediment removal from retention basins. The case studies showed a remarkable increase of the areas affected by floods and debris flow when considering possible future precipitation intensities in hazard mapping. But, the calculated increase in extent of future hazard zones lay within the uncertainty of the methods used today for the delimitation of the hazard zones. Thus, the consideration of the uncertainties laying in the methods for the elaboration of hazard zone maps in the torrent and river catchments sensitive to climate changes would provide a useful instrument for the consideration of potential future climate conditions. The study demonstrated that weak points in protection structures in future will become more important in risk management activities.
Institutions and the losses from natural disasters
Authors: Raschky P. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Natural hazards can be seen as a function of a specific natural process and human (economic) activity. Whereby the bulk of literature on natural hazard management has its focus on the natural process, an increasing number of scholars is emphasizing the importance of human activity in this context. Existing literature has identified certain socio-economic factors that determine the impact of natural disasters on society. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the effects of the institutional framework that influences human behavior by setting incentives and to point out the importance of institutional vulnerability. Results from an empirical investigation of large scale natural disasters between 1984 and 2004 show that countries with better institutions experience less victims and lower economic losses from natural disasters. In addition, the results suggest a non-linear relationship between economic development and economic disaster losses. The suggestions in this paper have implications for the discussion on how to deal with the adverse effects of natural hazards and how to develop efficient adaption strategies.
Liquefaction severity map for Aksaray city center (Central Anatolia, Turkey)
Authors: Yalcin A. , Gokceoglu C. , Sönmez H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Turkey having a long history of large earthquakes have been subjected to progressive adjacent earthquakes. Starting in 1939, the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) produced a sequence of major earthquakes, of which the Mw 7.4 earthquake that struck western Turkey on 17 August 1999. Following the Erzincan earthquake in 1992, the soil liquefaction has been crucial important in the agenda of Turkey. Soil liquefaction was also observed widely during the Marmara and the Düzce Earthquake in 1999 (Sönmez, 2003). Aksaray city center locates in the central part of Turkey and the Tuzgolu Fault Zone passes through near the city center. The fault zone has been generated to moderate magnitude earthquakes. The geology of the Aksaray province basin contains Quaternary alluvial deposits formed by gravel, sand, silt, and clay layers in different thickness. The Tuzgolu Fault Zone (TFZ) came into being after the sedimetation of alluvial deposits. Thus, the fault is younger from lithological units and it is active. In addition, the ground water level is very shallow, within approximately 3 m from the surface. In this study, the liquefaction potential of the Aksaray province is investigated by recent procedure suggested by Sonmez and Gokceoglu (2005). For this purpose, the liquefaction susceptibility map of the Aksaray city center for liquefaction is presented. In the analysis, the input parameters such as the depth of the upper and lower boundaries of soil layer, SPT-N values, fine content, clay content and the liquid limit were used for all layers within 20 m from the surface. As a result, the category of very high susceptibility liquefaction class was not observed for the earthquake scenario of Ms=5.2, 4.9% of the study area has high liquefaction susceptibility. The percentage of the moderately, low, and very low liquefied areas are 28.2%, 30.2%, and 36.3%, respectively. The rank of non-liquefied susceptibility area is less than 1%.
Detection of ULF electromagnetic emissions as a precursor to an earthquake in China with an improved polarization analysis
Authors: Ida Y. , Yang D. , Li Q. , Sun H. , Hayakawa M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. An improved analysis of polarization (as the ratio of vertical magnetic field component to the horizontal one) has been developed, and applied to the approximately four years data (from 1 March 2003 to 31 December 2006) observed at Kashi station in China. It is concluded that the polarization ratio has exhibited an apparent increase only just before the earthquake on 1 September 2003 (magnitude = 6.1 and epicentral distance of 116 km).
Using maps of city analogues to display and interpret climate change scenarios and their uncertainty
Authors: Kopf S. , Ha-Duong M. , Hallegatte S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We describe a method to represent the results of climate simulation models with spatial analogues. An analogue to a city A is a city B whose climate today corresponds to A's simulated future climate. Climates were characterized and compared non-parametrically, using the 30-years distribution of three indicators: Aridity Index, Heating Degree Days and Cooling Degree Days. The level of correspondence (i.e. strength of analogy) was evaluated statistically with the two-samples Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, generalized to 3 dimensions. We looked at the climate of 12 European cities at the end of the 21st century under an A2 climate change scenario. We used two datasets produced with high-resolution regional climate simulation models from the Hadley Centre and Meteo France. As expected from the modelled warming in local climate, analogues were found in warmer regions, mostly at more southerly latitudes within Europe, although much model and scenario uncertainty remains. Climate analogues provide an intuitive way to show the possible effects of climate change on urban areas, offering a holistic approach to think about how cities might adapt to different climates. Evidence of its communication value comes from the reuse of our maps in teaching and in several European mass-media.
The role of meteorological and climatic conditions in the occurrence of damaging hydro-geologic events in Southern Italy
Authors: Petrucci O. , Polemio M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Damaging Hydro-geologic Events (DHEs), defined as landslides and floods caused by heavy or prolonged rainfall, represent an important source of economic damages. We propose an approach to classify DHEs, considering 1) meteorological antecedent conditions, 2) the season during which the event occurs, 3) the return period of maximum daily rainfall triggering the event, 4) geographic sectors hit, 5) types of triggered damaging phenomena; and 6) induced damage. We applied this approach to a case study of time series of DHEs that occurred over 85 years in Calabria (southern Italy). We analysed 13 DHEs that, between 1921 and 2005, triggered landslides, floods and secondary floods, causing severe damage and tens of causalities all over the Calabria region. During the analysed events, 64% of Calabria's municipalities suffered many types of damage. The most relevant rain phenomena and the largest damages were caused by the persistent effects of perturbations on Calabria, which were preceded by the appearance of low-pressure fields in two different areas located westwards. We sorted the events into three types based on geographic damage distribution and types of triggered phenomena and induced damage. The first two types are characterised by similar severity levels, while the third shows the highest severity, in terms of both damage and victims. Independent of the type of event, the S-SE and E sectors of the region are the most frequently affected by DHEs. As regards human life, floods are the most dangerous type of phenomenon, causing the highest number of fatalities. Our analysis indicates a decreasing frequency of DHEs during the study period, and an absence of the most severe type for more than 50 years. The number of victims is also decreasing over time.
Assessment of human immediate response capability related to tsunami threats in Indonesia at a sub-national scale
Authors: Post J. , Wegscheider S. , Mück M. , Zosseder K. , Kiefl R. , Steinmetz T. , Strunz G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Human immediate response is contextualized into different time compartments reflecting the tsunami early warning chain. Based on the different time compartments the available response time and evacuation time is quantified. The latter incorporates accessibility of safe areas determined by a hazard assessment, as well as environmental and demographic impacts on evacuation speed properties assessed using a Cost Distance Weighting GIS approach. Approximately 4.35 million Indonesians live in tsunami endangered areas on the southern coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali and have between 20 and 150 min to reach a tsunami-safe area. Most endangered areas feature longer estimated-evacuation times and hence the population possesses a weak immediate response capability leaving them more vulnerable to being directly impacted by a tsunami. At a sub-national scale these hotspots were identified and include: the Mentawai islands off the Sumatra coast, various sub-districts on Sumatra and west and east Java. Based on the presented approach a temporal dynamic estimation of casualties and displacements as a function of available response time is obtained for the entire coastal area. As an example, a worst case tsunami scenario for Kuta (Bali) results in casualties of 25 000 with an optimal response time (direct evacuation when receiving a tsunami warning) and 120 000 for minimal response time (no evacuation). The estimated casualties correspond well to observed/reported values and overall model uncertainty is low with a standard error of 5%. The results obtained allow for prioritization of intervention measures such as early warning chain, evacuation and contingency planning, awareness and preparedness strategies down to a sub-district level and can be used in tsunami early warning decision support.
LiDAR for monitoring mass movements in permafrost environments at the cirque Hinteres Langtal, Austria, between 2000 and 2008
Authors: Avian M. , Kellerer-Pirklbauer A. , Bauer A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Permafrost areas receive more and more attention in terms of natural hazards in recent years due to ongoing global warming. Active rockglaciers are mixtures of debris and ice (of different origin) in high-relief environments indicating permafrost conditions for a substantial period of time. Style and velocity of the downward movement of this debris-ice-mass is influenced by topoclimatic conditions. The rockglacier Hinteres Langtalkar is stage of extensive modifications in the last decade as a consequence of an extraordinary high surface movement. Terrestrial laserscanning (or LiDAR) campaigns have been out once or twice per year since 2000 to monitor surface dynamics at the highly active front of the rockglacier. High resolution digital terrain models are the basis for annual and inter-annual analysis of surface elevation changes. Results show that the observed area shows predominantly positive surface elevation changes causing a consequent lifting of the surface over the entire period. Nevertheless a decreasing surface lifting of the observed area in the last three years leads to the assumption that the material transport from the upper part declines in the last years. Furthermore the rockglacier front is characterized by extensive mass wasting and partly disintegration of the rockglacier body. As indicated by the LiDAR results as well as from field evidence, this rockglacier front seems to represent a permafrost influenced landslide.