bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Autophagy Controls Acquisition of Aging Features in Macrophages
Authors: Stranks Amanda J. , Hansen Anne Louise , Panse Isabel , Mortensen Monika , Ferguson David J.P. , Puleston Daniel J. , Shenderov Kevin , Watson Alexander Scarth , Veldhoen Marc , Phadwal Kanchan , Cerundolo Vincenzo , Simon Anna Katharina
Published: March 2015

Macrophages provide a bridge linking innate and adaptive immunity. An increased frequency of macrophages and other myeloid cells paired with excessive cytokine production is commonly seen in the aging immune system, known as ‘inflamm-aging'. It is presently unclear how healthy macrophages are maintained throughout life and what connects inflammation with myeloid dysfunction during aging. Autophagy, an intracellular degradation mechanism, has known links with aging and lifespan extension. Here, we show for the first time that autophagy regulates the acquisition of major aging features in macrophages. In the absence of the essential autophagy gene Atg7, macrophage populations are increased and key functions such as phagocytosis and nitrite burst are reduced, while the inflammatory cytokine response is significantly increased - a phenotype also observed in aged macrophages. Furthermore, reduced autophagy decreases surface antigen expression and skews macrophage metabolism toward glycolysis. We show that macrophages from aged mice exhibit significantly reduced autophagic flux compared to young mice. These data demonstrate that autophagy plays a critical role in the maintenance of macrophage homeostasis and function, regulating inflammation and metabolism and thereby preventing immunosenescence. Thus, autophagy modulation may prevent excess inflammation and preserve macrophage function during aging, improving immune responses and reducing the morbidity and mortality associated with inflamm-aging.
Detection of Small Changes in Psoriasis Intensity with PrecisePASI
Authors: Kolios Antonios G.A. , French Lars E. , Navarini Alexander A.
Published: March 2015

Background: The Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) is the score of choice to grade psoriasis severity and detect clinical changes. Due to low resolution based on the calculation of the score by fixed area classes, PASI scores <10 have little value. Methods: At 756 patient examinations, psoriasis activity was measured with both PASI and PrecisePASI. Results: PrecisePASI has a linear increase while PASI has a staircase pattern. Both scores meet at the endpoint-relevant values of body surface area (BSA) 10, 30, 50, 70 and 90%. PASI and PrecisePASI correlate significantly over the whole range of BSA. In the region of BSA <5%, PrecisePASI shows a significantly higher resolution (p < 0.0001). Conclusion: The calculation of PrecisePASI corrects the undesired inaccuracies of PASI in the lower BSA ranges and is a tool to use as an endpoint in trials aiming to detect differences in the lower ranges of BSA.
The Fidelity of p16 Staining as a Surrogate Marker of Human Papillomavirus Status in Fine-Needle Aspirates and Core Biopsies of Neck Node Metastases: Implications for HPV Testing Protocols
Authors: Holmes Brittany J. , Maleki Zahra , Westra William H.
Published: March 2015

Objectives: The importance of detecting human papillomavirus (HPV) in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) has resulted in a growing expectation for HPV testing of clinical samples. Although testing protocols vary, most pertain to primary tumor biopsies/resections. Testing of fine-needle aspirates and core biopsies (FNACBs) is advantageous, but it is unclear whether technical and biological factors adversely affect the fidelity of HPV detection in these samples. Methods: Data was collected for 85 patients with regionally metastatic HNSCC that had undergone FNACB with HPV analysis as part of clinical care. HPV testing consisted of p16 immunostaining and HPV in situ hybridization (ISH). The FNACBs were compared with the subsequent biopsies/resections for HPV status. Results: p16 staining was present in 60 cases (71%). p16 positivity was predictive of oropharyngeal origin (p < 0.001) and correlated with the presence of HPV by ISH (98% correlation). On comparison of the metastases and primary cancers, the HPV status was concordant in 58 of 59 cases (98%). Conclusions: For patients with metastatic HNSCC, p16 staining reliably reflects the HPV status of the primary tumor. p16 staining of FNACBs may obviate the need for more invasive sampling of the primary cancer solely for the purpose of HPV testing.
Neuro-Imaging Findings in Infants with Congenital Cytomegalovirus Infection: Relation to Trimester of Infection
Authors: Oosterom Natanja , Nijman Joppe , Gunkel Julia , Wolfs Tom F.W. , Groenendaal Floris , Verboon-Maciolek Malgosia A. , de Vries Linda S.
Published: March 2015

Background: Congenital cytomegalovirus (cCMV) infection early in pregnancy may result in major disabilities. Cerebral abnormalities detected using cranial ultrasound (cUS) and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) have been related to neurological sequelae. Objective: To evaluate the additional value of MRI and assess the relationship between time of infection during pregnancy and outcome in infants with cCMV infection. Methods and Study Design: Demographic and clinical data were collected in infants with cCMV infection (1992-2013). Trimester of infection, neuro-imaging results and outcome were reviewed. Cerebral abnormalities were categorized into none, mild (lenticulostriate vasculopathy, germinolytic cysts, high signal intensity on T2-weighted images) and severe (migrational disorder, ventriculomegaly, cerebellar hypoplasia). Results were statistically analysed. Results: Thirty-six infants were eligible for analysis. cUS was performed in all and cranial MRI in 20 infants. Migrational disorders were only diagnosed using MRI (p < 0.01). In 17 infants trimester of infection was ascertained. Seven out of 10 infants infected during the first trimester had severe abnormalities on cUS (5 confirmed on MRI) and adverse sequelae; 3 had no/mild abnormalities on cUS/MRI and normal outcome. Two out of 3 infants infected during the second trimester with no/mild abnormalities on cUS/MRI had normal outcome; 1 with mild cUS and MRI abnormalities developed sensorineural hearing loss. Four infants infected during the third trimester with no/mild abnormalities on cUS/MRI had normal outcome. Conclusion: Infants with a first trimester cCMV infection are most at risk of severe cerebral abnormalities and neurological sequelae. MRI, and not cUS, enables an early diagnosis of migrational disorders, which can improve prediction of outcome.
Limits of Endorectal Ultrasound in Tailoring Treatment of Patients with Rectal Cancer
Authors: Restivo Angelo , Zorcolo Luigi , Marongiu Luigi , Scintu Francesco , Casula Giuseppe
Published: March 2015

Background: Endorectal ultrasound (ERUS) is considered reliable in staging rectal cancer, but recently some critics have questioned its accuracy. The aim of this study was to evaluate how often an ERUS-based decision leads to an appropriate treatment. Methods: Two hundred and twenty patients with rectal cancer staged with ERUS who underwent a surgical resection or a local excision without neoadjuvant therapy from 1997 to 2012 were included. According to ERUS, patients were divided into three groups of indication: (a) local excision (Tis-1 N0), (b) direct surgery (T2 N0), (c) preoperative chemoradiation (T3-4 or N+). Accuracy was explored by the correlation established with the final pathology. Results: Accuracy for T and N staging was 65 and 64%, respectively. Indication to local excision and to chemoradiation was correct in 97 and 88% of patients staged by ERUS. Accuracy of indication to direct surgery was poor (37%), and 21% of patients were overtreated in this group. Conclusions: ERUS seems not able to fulfill all the needs of ideal tailored therapeutic strategies. T2 diagnosis needs to be confirmed by an excisional biopsy before a final decision is made because overstaging of early tumors may occur in a not-so-negligible proportion of patients.
Serum Klotho: Relation to Fibroblast Growth Factor-23 and Other Regulators of Phosphate Metabolism in Children with Chronic Kidney Disease
Authors: Sawires Happy K. , Essam Rasha M. , Morgan Marian F. , Mahmoud Rasha A.
Published: March 2015

FGF23 and Klotho synergize to regulate phosphate homeostasis by promoting renal phosphate excretion. Chronic kidney disease (CKD) may be viewed as a state of FGF23 resistance caused by Klotho deficiency. This viewpoint explains several observations on phosphate metabolism in CKD that lack mechanistic insights. Our objectives were to correlate serum klotho and FGF-23 with other variables that regulate phosphate metabolism. We studied 40 patients with CKD on conservative treatment (group A), 44 patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) on regular hemodialysis (group B), 40 kidney transplant recipients (KTR) (group C) and 40 healthy controls for measuring serum klotho and FGF-23. Blood samples were withdrawn for measuring the levels of serum Calcium (Ca), Phosphorus (P), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), 1,25 (OH)2 D3, intact parathyroid hormone (PTH), FGF-23 and α klotho. The mean levels of FGF-23 and α klotho in control group were 225.78 ± 111.05 pg/ml (range: 102.4, 418.5) and 6.78 ± 1.90 ng/ml (range: 4, 11), respectively. The mean levels of FGF-23 in the 3 studied groups were 1,034.2 ± 84.6, 1,288.7 ± 131.4 and 1,008.7 ± 117.6 pg/ml, respectively. The median levels of s-klotho in the 3 studied groups were 3.15, 2.3 and 2.95, respectively. It was found that FGF-23 was significantly increased and α klotho was significantly decreased in all patients when compared with those in the control group (p < 0.001, <0.001, respectively). We found that there was a significant inverse correlation between serum Ca and α klotho in the studied groups. There was no significant correlation between FGF-23 and α klotho in the studied groups (p > 0.05). We have shown that circulating s-klotho was not related to FGF-23 in CKD, dialysis and KTR patients. In addition, we demonstrated a novel association between serum Ca and s-klotho that needs to be further studied.
Monosodium L-Glutamate and Dietary Fat Differently Modify the Composition of the Intestinal Microbiota in Growing Pigs
Authors: Feng Ze-Meng , Li Tie-Jun , Wu Li , Xiao Ding-Fu , Blachier Francois , Yin Yu-Long
Published: March 2015

Background: The Chinese have been undergone rapid transition to a high-fat diet-consuming lifestyle, while monosodium L-glutamate (MSG) is widely used as a daily food additive. It has been reported that fat alters the composition of intestinal microbiota. However, little information is available on the effects of oral MSG on intestinal microbiota, and no study was done focusing on the interaction effect of fat and MSG with respect to intestinal microbiota. The present study thus aimed to determine the effects of MSG and/or fat on intestinal microbiota, and also to identify possible interactions between these two nutrients. Methods: Four iso-nitrogenous and iso-caloric diets were provided to growing pigs. The microbiota from jejunum, ileum, cecum, and colon were analyzed. Results: Our results show that both MSG and fat clearly increased the intestinal microbiota diversity. MSG and fat modified the composition of intestinal microbiota, particularly in the colon. Both MSG and fat promoted the colonization of microbes related to energy extraction in gastrointestinal tract via different ways. MSG promoted the colonization of Faecalibacterium prausnitzii and Roseburia, while fat increased the percentage of Prevotella in colon and other intestinal segments. Conclusion: Our results will help to understand how individual or combined dietary changes modify the microbiota composition to prevent obesity.
Immunohistochemical Similarities between Lichen Sclerosus et Atrophicus and Morphea: A Case Study
Authors: Kakizaki Aya , Fujimura Taku , Furudate Sadanori , Kambayashi Yumi , Aiba Setsuya
Published: March 2015

Both morphea and lichen sclerosus et atrophicus (LSA) are connective tissue diseases that mainly affect the skin. A recent report suggested that a substantial portion of morphea coexists with LSA. In this report, we describe a case of LSA on the abdomen accompanied by morphea; we employed immunohistochemical staining for periostin as well as MMP-7 and MMP-28, both of which are reported to facilitate fibrosis in the development of various organs, including skin. To our knowledge, this is first English language paper that demonstrates the immunohistochemical staining of periostin, MMP-7 and MMP-28 for morphea and LSA. Our present case might suggest possible mechanisms for the coexistence of two different sclerotic skin disorders.
Dietary Habits and Cardiometabolic Health in Obese Children
Authors: Gilardini Luisa , Croci Marina , Pasqualinotto Lucia , Caffetto Katherine , Invitti Cecilia
Published: March 2015

Background: Prevalence rates of cardiometabolic risk factors vary largely among overweight children. This study investigated the relationships between dietary habits and cardiometabolic health among obese children living in a city of Northern Italy. Methods: Dietary habits were collected in 448 obese subjects aged 6-18 years, attending an obesity outpatient center in Milan. Anthropometry, blood pressure (BP), lipids, fasting and post-load glucose, and insulin were measured. Physical activity was assessed in adolescents using a questionnaire. Results: Frequency of glucose intolerance, hypertension and dyslipidemia was 0.7%, 13% and 27.2%, respectively. Plausible reporters consumed more animal protein and sodium and less legumes than recommended in nutritional recommendations and adequate amounts of fiber mainly derived from whole grains. Subjects skipping breakfast had unhealthy diets and greater body fatness. After adjustment for confounders, waist/height and fasting glucose were associated with sodium intake (r =0.149 and r = 0.142, respectively; p < 0.05), 2-hour glucose with fiber (r = -0.172; p < 0.01), and BP with vegetable protein intake (systolic r = -0.120 (p < 0.05); diastolic r = -0.267 (p < 0.01)). Hypertensive children consumed less vegetable protein than normotensive children. Conclusions: The cardiometabolic health of obese children improves with vegetable protein and whole grain intake, whereas dysglycemia and adiposity increase with sodium intake.
Early Resting Myocardial Computed Tomography Perfusion for the Detection of Acute Coronary Syndrome in Patients With Coronary Artery Disease
Authors: Pursnani Amit , Lee Ashley M. , Mayrhofer Thomas , Ahmed Waleed , Uthamalingam Shanmugam , Ferencik Maros , Puchner Stefan B. , Bamberg Fabian , Schlett Christopher L. , Udelson James , Hoffmann Udo , Ghoshhajra Brian B.
Published: March 2015

Background—

Acute rest single-photon emission computed tomography-myocardial perfusion imaging (SPECT-MPI) has high predictive value for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in emergency department patients. Prior studies have shown excellent agreement between rest/stress computed tomography perfusion (CTP) and SPECT-MPI, but the value of resting CTP (rCTP) in acute chest pain triage remains unclear. We sought to determine the diagnostic accuracy of early rCTP, incremental value beyond obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD; ≥50% stenosis), and compared early rCTP to late stress SPECT-MPI in patients with CAD presenting with suspicion of ACS to the emergency department.

Methods and Results—

In this prespecified subanalysis of 183 patients (58.1±10.2 years; 33% women), we included patients with any CAD by coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) from Rule Out Myocardial Infarction Using Computer-Assisted Tomography I. rCTP was assessed semiquantitatively, blinded to CAD interpretation. Overall, 31 had ACS and 48 had abnormal rCTP. Sensitivity and specificity of rCTP for ACS were 48% (95% confidence interval [CI], 30%–67%) and 78% (95% CI, 71%–85%), respectively. rCTP predicted ACS (adjusted odds ratio, 3.40 [95% CI, 1.37–8.42];
P
=0.008) independently of obstructive CAD, and sensitivity for ACS increased from 77% (95% CI, 59%–90%) for obstructive CAD to 90% (95% CI, 74%–98%) with addition of rCTP (
P
=0.05). In a subgroup undergoing late rest/stress SPECT-MPI (n=81), CCTA/rCTP had noninferior discriminatory value to CCTA/SPECT-MPI (area under the curve, 0.88 versus 0.90;
P
=0.64) using a noninferiority margin of 10%.

Conclusions—

Early rCTP provides incremental value beyond obstructive CAD to detect ACS. CCTA/rCTP is noninferior to CCTA/SPECT-MPI to discriminate ACS and presents an attractive alternative to triage patients presenting with acute chest pain.

Clinical Trial Registration—

URL:
http://www.clinicaltrials.gov
. Unique identifier: NCT00990262.
Association of Sex Hormones With Carotid Artery Distensibility in Men and Postmenopausal Women
Authors: Vaidya Dhananjay , Golden Sherita H. , Haq Nowreen , Heckbert Susan R. , Liu Kiang , Ouyang Pamela
Published: March 2015

The decline in carotid distensibility with age is steeper in women than in men, however, the correlates of this sex difference are not known. We examined the association of bioavailable testosterone, estradiol, dehydroepiandrosterone, and sex hormone–binding globulin, in 2783 postmenopausal women and 2987 men aged 45 to 84 years at the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis baseline examination. Carotid artery lumen diameters by ultrasound and brachial artery blood pressures were measured at systole and diastole. Regression models to determine the association of carotid distensibility coefficient and lumen diameter with sex-specific quartiles of sex hormones were adjusted for age, race, height, weight, diabetes mellitus, current smoking, antihypertensive medication use, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, and hormone replacement therapy in women. A higher DC indicates a more distensible vessel. In women, higher dehydroepiandrosterone (
P
=0.008) and lower sex hormone–binding globulin (
P
=0.039) were associated with lower distensibility; higher dehydroepiandrosterone and lower estradiol were associated with smaller carotid diameters. In men, higher Bio-T (
P
=0.009) and lower estradiol (
P
=0.007) were associated with greater distensibility and also with smaller diameters (
P
=0.012 and 0.002, respectively). An androgenic internal milieu is associated with lesser carotid distensibility and diameter remodeling in women, but the opposite is true for men. Higher levels of estradiol are associated with smaller carotid diameters in both the sexes. Future longitudinal and experimental studies are needed to reveal the mechanism and clinical consequences of these associations.
The Literary Connoisseur. Socrates Scholasticus on Rhetoric, Literature and Religious Orthodoxy
Authors: Quiroga Puertas Alberto J.
Published: March 2015

This paper explores Socrates Scholasticus’ accounts of rhetorical deliveries and allusions to bishops’ oratorical displays in the light of new tendencies in late antique literature and historiography with the aim of concluding that the Church historian considered that rhetorical deliveries were part of the negotiating process in the search of religious consensus.
Cursing in the Infancy Gospel of Thomas
Authors: Eastman Daniel
Published: March 2015

One of the most notable features of the so-called Infancy Gospel of Thomas is its depiction of several punitive miracles, or curses, performed by the child Jesus. Previous scholarly treatments of the text have often dismissed these curses as merely another type of miracle, rather than as a special feature of IGT deserving of further study. This article examines the curses with an eye toward their distinctive qualities, and then seeks to find a match for the resulting paradigm in other literature, both Christian and non-Christian, from the ancient Mediterranean setting. A possible match is found in the cursing stories told of the ascetics of fourth-century Syria, as related by Theodoret of Cyrrhus in his Religious History.
Stumbling Blocks to the Secularization of Personal Status Laws in the Lebanese Republic (1926-2013)
Authors: Farha Mark
Published: March 2015

Despite recurrent efforts to introduce a civil personal status code since 1926, personal status laws in Lebanon remain regulated by the confessional codices of the country’s eighteen denominations. This article examines how efforts at secularization were repeatedly thwarted due to veto rights accorded to sectarian heads in the Lebanese Constitution. The codification of sectarian marriage and inheritance laws is related to Lebanon’s confessional political system and to the attendant perpetuation of kinship ties and fluctuating confessional attitudes. The latter are measured and compared diachronically with a series of surveys. Paradoxically, the chronic weakness of the Lebanese state would render top-down reform measures an exceedingly difficult task even as it opened the space for increasingly effective civil society activism aimed at dismantling the juridical hegemony of the sects.
Systematic revision of the ormiine genera Aulacephala Macquart and Phasioormia Townsend (Diptera, Tachinidae)
Authors: NIHEI SILVIO S.
Published: March 2015

The tribe Ormiini comprises 64 species in six genera. In the present paper, the ormiine genera Aulacephala Macquart and Phasioormia Townsend are revised, with two valid species recognized in the former and three valid species recognized in the latter. All available nominal species in Aulacephala and Phasioormia were examined and are revised herein, so that previous synonymies could be confirmed. Furthermore, Phasioormia papuana sp. nov. is described from Papua New Guinea and Indonesia, and Therobia punctigera (Paramonov, 1955) is proposed as a new synonym of Aulacephala hervei Bequaert, 1922, syn. nov. Keys to species and illustrations of male and female terminalia are provided for both genera.
Anatomical deviation of male organs of land planarians from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, with description of two new species of Cratera (Platyhelminthes, Tricladida)
Authors: CARBAYO FERNANDO , ALMEIDA ANA LAURA
Published: March 2015

Two new land planarian species, collected in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, are described. Their external aspect is similar to that of Imbira marcusi Carbayo et al., 2013 and Pseudogeoplana theresopolitana (Schirch, 1929), respectively. The analysis of the internal organs, however, revealed they belong to the genus Cratera. The male copulatory organs of one species is very different from any other geoplaninid, for the penis papilla holds a large, distal cavity receiving the ejaculatory duct and, furthermore, the papilla projects vertically downwards from the roof of the male atrium. Thus we consider it as a new species, Cratera cuarassu sp. nov. The second species differs from its congeners in that the dorsal insertion of the penis papilla is anterior to the ventral one, and in that the female atrium is narrowed in the anterior portion. The species was found in the type locality of Pseudogeoplana theresopolitana (Schirch, 1929) and compares well with it in the external features. However, since its internal organs are unknown and the type material of the species is seemingly lost, we describe it as Cratera anamariae Carbayo, sp. nov.
First fossil Lamprosomatinae leaf beetles (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) with descriptions of new genera and species from Baltic amber
Authors: BUKEJS ANDRIS , NADEIN KONSTANTIN
Published: March 2015

In the current paper the first fossil representatives of leaf-beetles from the subfamily Lamprosomatinae (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) are described and illustrated from Upper Eocene Baltic amber: Succinoomorphus warchalowskii gen. et sp. nov., Archelamprosomius balticus gen. et sp. nov., and Archelamprosomius kirejtshuki sp. nov. A key to fossil Lamprosomatinae is provided.
Estimating Snow Cover Duration from Ground Temperature
Authors: Teubner Irene E. , Haimberger Leopold , Hantel Michael
Published: March 2015

Snow cover duration is commonly derived from snow depth, snow water equivalent, or satellite data. Snow cover duration has more recently also been inferred from ground temperature data. In this study, a probabilistic snow cover duration (SCD) model is introduced that estimates the conditional probability for snow cover given the daily mean and the diurnal range of ground temperature. For the application of the SCD model, 87 Austrian sites in the Alpine region are investigated in the period of 2000 to 2011. The daily range of ground temperature is identified to represent the primary variable in determining the snow cover duration. In the case of a large dataset, however, the inclusion of the daily mean ground temperature as the second given parameter improves results. Rank correlation coefficients of predicted versus observed snow cover duration are typically between 0.8 and 0.9.
Multidecadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification in the Western North Pacific
Authors: Wang Xidong , Wang Chunzai , Zhang Liping , Wang Xin
Published: March 2015

This study investigates the variation of tropical cyclone (TC) rapid intensification (RI) in the western North Pacific (WNP) and its relationship with large-scale climate variability. RI events have exhibited strikingly multidecadal variability. During the warm (cold) phase of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the annual RI number is generally lower (higher) and the average location of RI occurrence tends to shift southeastward (northwestward). The multidecadal variations of RI are associated with the variations of large-scale ocean and atmosphere variables such as sea surface temperature (SST), tropical cyclone heat potential (TCHP), relative humidity (RHUM), and vertical wind shear (VWS). It is shown that their variations on multidecadal time scales depend on the evolution of the PDO phase. The easterly trade wind is strengthened during the cold PDO phase at low levels, which tends to make equatorial warm water spread northward into the main RI region rsulting from meridional ocean advection associated with Ekman transport. Simultaneously, an anticyclonic wind anomaly is formed in the subtropical gyre of the WNP. This therefore may deepen the depth of the 26°C isotherm and directly increase TCHP over the main RI region. These thermodynamic effects associated with the cold PDO phase greatly support RI occurrence. The reverse is true during the warm PDO phase. The results also indicate that the VWS variability in the low wind shear zone along the monsoon trough may not be critical for the multidecadal modulation of RI events.
Commonly Used Drought Indices as Indicators of Soil Moisture in China
Authors: Wang Hongshuo , Rogers Jeffrey C. , Munroe Darla K.
Published: March 2015

Soil moisture shortages adversely affecting agriculture are significantly associated with meteorological drought. Because of limited soil moisture observations with which to monitor agricultural drought, characterizing soil moisture using drought indices is of great significance. The relationship between commonly used drought indices and soil moisture is examined here using Chinese surface weather data and calculated station-based drought indices. Outside of northeastern China, surface soil moisture is more affected by drought indices having shorter time scales while deep-layer soil moisture is more related on longer index time scales. Multiscalar drought indices work better than drought indices from two-layer bucket models. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) works similarly or better than the standardized precipitation index (SPI) in characterizing soil moisture at different soil layers. In most stations in China, the Z index has a higher correlation with soil moisture at 0–5 cm than the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI), which in turn has a higher correlation with soil moisture at 90–100-cm depth than the Z index. Soil bulk density and soil organic carbon density are the two main soil properties affecting the spatial variations of the soil moisture–drought indices relationship. The study may facilitate agriculture drought monitoring with commonly used drought indices calculated from weather station data.
On the Hydrometeorological Changes of a Tropical Water Basin in the Caribbean and Its Sensitivity to Midterm Changes in Regional Climate
Authors: Comarazamy Daniel E. , González Jorge E. , Moshary Fred , Piasecki Michael
Published: March 2015

Global climate change manifests in the Caribbean basin as increased SSTs, precipitation anomalies, and changes in atmospheric moisture content, among other effects. These regional climate changes have a profound impact on the local human, flora, and fauna populations. Such is the case of the Enriquillo basin, a highly sensitive ecosystem located in the southwestern region of the Caribbean island of Hispaniola. The major bodies of water in the basin, Lake Enriquillo and Lake Azuéi, show a shrinking and expanding pattern since the early 1980s. The surface area of Lake Enriquillo was observed to reach minimum values in 2004 (170 km2), shifting to a rapid expansion to its current levels (>350 km2 as of late 2013). Lake Azuéi is observed to grow at similar rates. This lake expansion could be attributed to regional climate change. Long-term regional climate data reflect increasing SSTs (~1°C), air temperatures (~0.37°C decade−1), dewpoint (~0.66°C decade−1), and precipitation (~30%); no reliable local precipitation records were found. Furthermore, local governments are being forced to issue evacuations, prompting one of the first cases of environmental refugees not caused by an extreme event (e.g., a hurricane or tsunami). The hypothesis of lake expansion in the Enriquillo basin as a regional response to climate change is further investigated with the use of an integrated regional atmospheric modeling system. Model results from simulations performed for years during the lakes’ lowest water levels (2003–04) and during their continued growth (2012–13) show increased total accumulated surface precipitation, atmospheric liquid water content, and an enhanced positive feedback system that produces orographic cloud cover in the surrounding tropical montane cloud forests as a consequence of the changing atmospheric and oceanic conditions.
The Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS): Description and Synthetic Evaluation Study
Authors: Carrera Marco L. , Bélair Stéphane , Bilodeau Bernard
Published: March 2015

The Canadian Land Data Assimilation System (CaLDAS) has been developed at the Meteorological Research Division of Environment Canada (EC) to better represent the land surface initial states in environmental prediction and assimilation systems. CaLDAS is built around an external land surface modeling system and uses the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) methodology. A unique feature of CaLDAS is the use of improved precipitation forcing through the assimilation of precipitation observations. An ensemble of precipitation analyses is generated by combining numerical weather prediction (NWP) model precipitation forecasts with precipitation observations. Spatial phasing errors to the NWP first-guess precipitation forecasts are more effective than perturbations to the precipitation observations in decreasing (increasing) the exceedance ratio (uncertainty ratio) scores and generating flatter, more reliable ranked histograms. CaLDAS has been configured to assimilate L-band microwave brightness temperature TB by coupling the land surface model with a microwave radiative transfer model. A continental-scale synthetic experiment assimilating passive L-band TBs for an entire warm season is performed over North America. Ensemble metric scores are used to quantify the impact of different atmospheric forcing uncertainties on soil moisture and TB ensemble spread. The use of an ensemble of precipitation analyses, generated by assimilating precipitation observations, as forcing combined with the assimilation of L-band TBs gave rise to the largest improvements in superficial soil moisture scores and to a more rapid reduction of the root-zone soil moisture errors. Innovation diagnostics show that the EnKF is able to maintain a sufficient forecast error spread through time, while soil moisture estimation error improvements with increasing ensemble size were limited.
Soil Moisture Model Calibration and Validation: An ARS Watershed on the South Fork Iowa River
Authors: Coopersmith Evan J. , Cosh Michael H. , Petersen Walt A. , Prueger John , Niemeier James J.
Published: March 2015

Soil moisture monitoring with in situ technology is a time-consuming and costly endeavor for which a method of increasing the resolution of spatial estimates across in situ networks is necessary. Using a simple hydrologic model, the estimation capacity of an in situ watershed network can be increased beyond the station distribution by using available precipitation, soil, and topographic information. A study site was selected on the Iowa River, characterized by homogeneous soil and topographic features, reducing the variables to precipitation only. Using 10-km precipitation estimates from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) for 2013, high-resolution estimates of surface soil moisture were generated in coordination with an in situ network, which was deployed as part of the Iowa Flood Studies (IFloodS). A simple, bucket model for soil moisture at each in situ sensor was calibrated using four precipitation products and subsequently validated at both the sensor for which it was calibrated and other proximal sensors, the latter after a bias correction step. Average RMSE values of 0.031 and 0.045 m3 m−3 were obtained for models validated at the sensor for which they were calibrated and at other nearby sensors, respectively.
The Plumbing of Land Surface Models: Benchmarking Model Performance
Authors: Best M. J. , Abramowitz G. , Johnson H. R. , Pitman A. J. , Balsamo G. , Boone A. , Cuntz M. , Decharme B. , Dirmeyer P. A. , Dong J. , Ek M. , Guo Z. , Haverd V. , van den Hurk B. J. J. , Nearing G. S. , Pak B. , Peters-Lidard C. , Santanello J. A. , Stevens L. , Vuichard N.
Published: March 2015

The Protocol for the Analysis of Land Surface Models (PALS) Land Surface Model Benchmarking Evaluation Project (PLUMBER) was designed to be a land surface model (LSM) benchmarking intercomparison. Unlike the traditional methods of LSM evaluation or comparison, benchmarking uses a fundamentally different approach in that it sets expectations of performance in a range of metrics a priori—before model simulations are performed. This can lead to very different conclusions about LSM performance. For this study, both simple physically based models and empirical relationships were used as the benchmarks. Simulations were performed with 13 LSMs using atmospheric forcing for 20 sites, and then model performance relative to these benchmarks was examined. Results show that even for commonly used statistical metrics, the LSMs’ performance varies considerably when compared to the different benchmarks. All models outperform the simple physically based benchmarks, but for sensible heat flux the LSMs are themselves outperformed by an out-of-sample linear regression against downward shortwave radiation. While moisture information is clearly central to latent heat flux prediction, the LSMs are still outperformed by a three-variable nonlinear regression that uses instantaneous atmospheric humidity and temperature in addition to downward shortwave radiation. These results highlight the limitations of the prevailing paradigm of LSM evaluation that simply compares an LSM to observations and to other LSMs without a mechanism to objectively quantify the expectations of performance. The authors conclude that their results challenge the conceptual view of energy partitioning at the land surface.
Global Meteorological Drought Prediction Using the North American Multi-Model Ensemble
Authors: Mo Kingtse C. , Lyon Bradfield
Published: March 2015

Precipitation forecasts from six climate models in the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) are combined with observed precipitation data to generate forecasts of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) for global land areas, and their skill was evaluated over the period 1982–2010. The skill of monthly precipitation forecasts from the NMME is also assessed. The value-added utility in using the NMME models to predict the SPI is identified by comparing the skill of its forecasts with a baseline skill based solely on the inherent persistence characteristics of the SPI itself. As expected, skill of the NMME-generated SPI forecasts depends on the season, location, and specific index considered (the 3- and 6-month SPI were evaluated). In virtually all locations and seasons, statistically significant skill is found at lead times of 1–2 months, although the skill comes largely from initial conditions. Added skill from the NMME is primarily in regions exhibiting El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) teleconnections. Knowledge of the initial drought state is critical in SPI prediction, and there are considerable differences in observed SPI values between different datasets. Root-mean-square differences between datasets can exceed typical thresholds for drought, particularly in the tropics. This is particularly problematic for precipitation products available in near–real time. Thus, in the near term, the largest advances in the global prediction of meteorological drought are obtainable from improvements in near-real-time precipitation observations for the globe. In the longer term, improvements in precipitation forecast skill from dynamical models will be essential in this effort.
Flood Forecasting and Inundation Mapping Using HiResFlood-UCI and Near-Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Data: The 2008 Iowa Flood
Authors: Nguyen Phu , Thorstensen Andrea , Sorooshian Soroosh , Hsu Kuolin , AghaKouchak Amir
Published: March 2015

Floods are among the most devastating natural hazards in society. Flood forecasting is crucially important in order to provide warnings in time to protect people and properties from such disasters. This research applied the high-resolution coupled hydrologic–hydraulic model from the University of California, Irvine, named HiResFlood-UCI, to simulate the historical 2008 Iowa flood. HiResFlood-UCI was forced with the near-real-time Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks–Cloud Classification System (PERSIANN-CCS) and NEXRAD Stage 2 precipitation data. The model was run using the a priori hydrologic parameters and hydraulic Manning n values from lookup tables. The model results were evaluated in two aspects: point comparison using USGS streamflow and areal validation of inundation maps using USDA’s flood extent maps derived from Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) 56-m resolution imagery. The results show that the PERSIANN-CCS simulation tends to capture the observed hydrograph shape better than Stage 2 (minimum correlation of 0.86 for PERSIANN-CCS and 0.72 for Stage 2); however, at most of the stream gauges, Stage 2 simulation provides more accurate estimates of flood peaks compared to PERSIANN-CCS (49%–90% bias reduction from PERSIANN-CCS to Stage 2). The simulation in both cases shows a good agreement (0.67 and 0.73 critical success index for Stage 2 and PERSIANN-CCS simulations, respectively) with the AWiFS flood extent. Since the PERSIANN-CCS simulation slightly underestimated the discharge, the probability of detection (0.93) is slightly lower than that of the Stage 2 simulation (0.97). As a trade-off, the false alarm rate for the PERSIANN-CCS simulation (0.23) is better than that of the Stage 2 simulation (0.31).
Tackling Oxygen Optode Drift: Near-Surface and In-Air Oxygen Optode Measurements on a Float Provide an Accurate in Situ Reference
Authors: Bittig Henry C. , Körtzinger Arne
Published: March 2015

A yet unexplained drift of (some) oxygen optodes during storage/transport and thus significant deviations from factory/laboratory calibrations have been a major handicap for autonomous oxygen observations. Optode drift appears to be systematic and is predominantly a slope effect due to reduced oxygen sensitivity. A small contribution comes from a reduced luminophore lifetime, which causes a small positive offset. A reliable in situ reference is essential to correct such a drift. Traditionally, this called for a ship-based reference cast, which poses some challenges for opportunistic float deployments. This study presents an easily implemented alternative using near-surface/in-air measurements of an Aanderaa optode on a 10-cm stalk and compares it to the more traditional approaches (factory, laboratory, and in situ deployment calibration). In-air samples show a systematic bias depending on the water saturation, which is likely caused by occasional submersions of the standard-height stalk optode. Linear regression of measured in-air supersaturation against in-water supersaturation (using ancillary meteorological data to define the saturation level) robustly removes this bias and thus provides a precise (0.2%) and accurate (1%) in situ correction that is available throughout the entire instrument’s lifetime.
CERES Synoptic Product: Methodology and Validation of Surface Radiant Flux
Authors: Rutan David A. , Kato Seiji , Doelling David R. , Rose Fred G. , Nguyen Le Trang , Caldwell Thomas E. , Loeb Norman G.
Published: March 2015

The Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System Synoptic (SYN1deg), edition 3, product provides climate-quality global 3-hourly 1° × 1°gridded top of atmosphere, in-atmosphere, and surface radiant fluxes. The in-atmosphere surface fluxes are computed hourly using a radiative transfer code based upon inputs from Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), 3-hourly geostationary (GEO) data, and meteorological assimilation data from the Goddard Earth Observing System. The GEO visible and infrared imager calibration is tied to MODIS to ensure uniform MODIS-like cloud properties across all satellite cloud datasets. Computed surface radiant fluxes are compared to surface observations at 85 globally distributed land (37) and ocean buoy (48) sites as well as several other publicly available global surface radiant flux data products. Computed monthly mean downward fluxes from SYN1deg have a bias (standard deviation) of 3.0 W m−2 (5.7%) for shortwave and −4.0 W m−2 (2.9%) for longwave compared to surface observations. The standard deviation between surface downward shortwave flux calculations and observations at the 3-hourly time scale is reduced when the diurnal cycle of cloud changes is explicitly accounted for. The improvement is smaller for surface downward longwave flux owing to an additional sensitivity to boundary layer temperature/humidity, which has a weaker diurnal cycle compared to clouds.
Radar and Lightning Observations of Deep Moist Convection across Northern Alabama during DC3: 21 May 2012
Authors: Mecikalski Retha Matthee , Bain Anthony L. , Carey Lawrence D.
Published: March 2015

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) experiment seeks to understand the kinematic and microphysical controls on the lightning behavior of deep moist convection. This study utilized multiple dual-polarization Doppler radars across northern Alabama to quantify microphysical and kinematic properties and processes that often serve as precursors to lightning, such as the graupel echo volume, graupel mass, and convective updraft volume. The focus here was on one multicellular complex that occurred on 21 May 2012 in northern Alabama during DC3. The graupel echo volume and the graupel mass in the charging region correlated well with the total lightning flash rate (FR), and even better than the updraft volumes and maximum updraft velocities. The flash length scales (LS) and flash areas were generally anticorrelated to the FR, while it was correlated to the nonprecipitation ice volume. More specifically, the presence of smaller flashes was associated with a stronger lower positive charge region caused by larger graupel volumes, stronger updraft volumes, and stronger maximum updraft velocities while larger flashes occurred during lower FRs and were associated with a weakened lower positive charge region in combination with a stronger upper positive charge region, weaker updraft velocities, a smaller graupel volume and mass, and an increase in nonprecipitation ice volume.
The Impact of Hurricane Force Wind Fields on the North Pacific Ocean Environment
Authors: Businger Steven , Yildiz Selen , Robinson Thomas E.
Published: March 2015

This study analyzes QuikSCAT surface wind data over the North Pacific Ocean to document the distribution of captured fetches in extratropical cyclones that produced hurricane force (HF) wind fields from January 2003 through May 2008. A case study is presented to introduce the datasets, which include surface wind analyses from the Global Forecast System (GFS) Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS), and wave hindcasts from the third-generation wave model (WAVEWATCH III; hereafter, WW3), in addition to the QuikSCAT surface wind data. The analysis shows significant interannual variability in the location of the captured fetches as documented by QuikSCAT, including a shift in the distribution of captured fetches associated with ENSO. GDAS surface winds over the ocean are consistently underanalyzed when compared to QuikSCAT surface winds, despite the fact that satellite observations of ocean surface winds are assimilated. When the WW3 hindcasts associated with HF cyclones are compared with buoy observations over the eastern and central North Pacific Ocean, the wave model significantly underestimates the large-swell events.
Characteristics of Winter-Precipitation-Related Transportation Fatalities in the United States
Authors: Black Alan W. , Mote Thomas L.
Published: March 2015

Winter precipitation can be very disruptive to travel by aircraft and by motor vehicles. Vehicle fatalities due to winter precipitation are considered “indirect” and are not counted in Storm Data, the publication commonly used to evaluate losses from meteorological hazards. The goal of this study is to examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of these indirect transportation fatalities that involve winter precipitation for the period 1975–2011. Motor vehicle fatalities were gathered from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) Fatality Analysis Reporting System (FARS) database, while aviation fatalities were collected from the National Transportation Safety Board’s (NTSB) Aviation Accident database. Statistical analysis and geographic information systems (GIS) were used to assess the spatial and temporal characteristics of these deaths. Most winter-precipitation-related motor vehicle fatalities occur during the daylight hours. Fatal motor vehicle accident rates are higher than expected in the Northeast and Great Lakes regions, while winter-precipitation-related aviation fatalities are most common in the western United States. Vehicle fatality counts due to winter weather are compared to fatality counts for various hazards from Storm Data to highlight the differences between the datasets. Because of the exclusion of vehicle fatalities, Storm Data underestimates by an order of magnitude the number of fatalities that involve winter weather each year. It is hoped that a better understanding of winter precipitation mortality can be applied in order to reduce fatalities in the future.