Assessment of economic risks in implementing coal mining technologies in modern conditions of subsoil use
Authors:   National University of Science and Technology MISIS, Agafonov Valery , Oganesyan Armine ,   National University of Science and Technology MISIS, Abramkin Nikolay ,   Moscow Polytechnic University
Published: October 2024

Introduction. This paper presents research in the field of methodology of assessment and monitoring of associated under ground coalmining risks in order to level their impact on the resulting technical and economic indicators of production and economic activities in modern conditions of subsoiluse. The functioning of technological systems of coal mining enterprises at the present stage of subsurface use occurs in a highly dynamic and highly variable functional environment with a fair degree of uncertainty, which is generated by a significant variety of parameters and characteristics of the initial mining, geological and mining engineering environment, which, in turn, generates the emergence of various groups and risk factors for subsurface use. The established procedures and methods of risk forecasting currently do not give satisfactory results due to the globalization of world markets and high volatility of prices for coal products. Leveling the negative degree of influence of the risk component on the resulting indicators – indicators of technical and economic activity can be achieved through the introduction of an operational system for assessing and monitoring various groups of risk factors. Materials and methods. For the purpose of evaluation, it is proposed to use the methodological and methodological foundations of the method called “vector norms”, which involves the use of Affine space, the constituent areas of compromises and the introduction of utility estimates. A complete model representation of the assessment and monitoring of the impact of various risk factors of subsurface use, taking into account their clustering and ranking, is presented. The algorithmic support of this method is reduced to the following components-iterations: 1. Formation of criteria-based assessment matrices of various factors of subsurface use risk groups. 2. Assignment of optima to evaluation criteria. 3. In order to ensure the legality of the use and implementation of mathematical procedures and operations, the reduction of multi-dimensional evaluation criteria to a relative form, taking into account the assigned optima. 4. Formation of the objective function of the “norm of the vector” (integral indicator) and the development of a procedure for selecting the optimal option. Since the use of the methodological and methodological foundations of the method called “vector norms” allows us to form quantitative estimates of the presented factors-types of risk of subsurface use, this makes it possible to implement the clustering procedure or ranking of a selected set of coal mining enterprises in conjunction with existing risk areas. Results. Quite high values of correlation coefficients were obtained with a significant closeness of the relationship of inversely proportional dependencies of generalizing integral indicators of the degree of risk and the level of achievement of planned indicators and development of production capacity with the level of operational profitability from the conduct of production and economic activities of coal mining enterprises with a directly proportional dependence on the operating costs of mining 1t of coal. Discussion. Сomplete model representation of the assessment and monitoring of the impact of various risk factors of subsurface use, taking into account their clustering and ranking, is presented. As a practical component of the research, variable series of areas of integral degree of risk in the functional environment of Kuzbass coal mines are presented. The use of software modules for correlation and regression analysis, taking into account three-year retrospective dynamics, made it possible to establish the legality and objectivity of the proposed methodological apparatus for integrated risk assessment of the implementation of coal mining technologies in modern conditions of subsurface use. Conclusion. The results of the implementation of the theoretical components of the methodology and model representations of the developed conceptual foundations for the integrated risk assessment of the implementation of coal mining technologies in modern conditions of subsurface use, taking into account five-year retrospective dynamics, showed that in the Kuznetsk basin there was a steady tendency to reduce the cluster of coal mines, which is characterized by high risks of carrying out production and economic activities in the presence of a disproportion of resource potential (the emergent part). The accompanying processes of formation of this trend are manifested in a quantitative increase in the functional units of the rating cluster of group 2B with an average resource potential and inherent moderate risk. It is within this cluster that strategies for prioritizing investments for the development and renewal of technological systems and structures of coal mining are being formed, since only they are able to provide the fastest possible return on invested funds. Resume. The article presents the results of research in the field of methodology for assessing and monitoring the risks associated with underground coal mining in order to level out their impact on the resulting technical and economic indicators of production and economic activity in modern conditions of subsoil use. The research results can be useful in the implementation of coal mining technology in modern conditions of subsoil use.