bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Icosahedral Shallow Water Model (ICOSWM): results of shallow water test cases and sensitivity to model parameters
Authors: Rípodas P. , Gassmann A. , Förstner J. , Majewski D. , Giorgetta M. , Korn P. , Kornblueh L. , Wan H. , Zängl G. , Bonaventura L. , Heinze T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Icosahedral Shallow Water Model (ICOSWM) has been a first step in the development of the ICON (acronym for ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic) models. ICON is a joint project of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg (MPI-M) and Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) for the development of new unified general circulation models for climate modeling and numerical weather forecasting on global or regional domains. A short description of ICOSWM is given. Standard test cases are used to test the performance of ICOSWM. The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Spectral Transform Shallow Water Model (STSWM) has been used as reference for test cases without an analytical solution. The sensitivity of the model results to different model parameters is studied. The kinetic energy spectra are calculated and compared to the STSWM spectra. A comparison to the shallow water version of the current operational model GME at DWD is presented. The results presented in this paper use the ICOSWM version at the end of 2008 and are a benchmark for the new options implemented in the development of the ICON project.
An Intermediate Complexity Climate Model (ICCMp1) based on the GFDL flexible modelling system
Authors: Farneti R. , Vallis G. K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. An intermediate complexity coupled ocean-atmosphere-land-ice model, based on the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Flexible Modelling System (FMS), has been developed to study mechanisms of ocean-atmosphere interactions and natural climate variability at interannual to interdecadal and longer time scales. The model uses the three-dimensional primitive equations for both ocean and atmosphere but is simplified from a "state of the art" coupled model by using simplified atmospheric physics and parameterisation schemes. These simplifications provide considerable savings in computational expense and, perhaps more importantly, allow mechanisms to be investigated more cleanly and thoroughly than with a more elaborate model. For example, the model allows integrations of several millennia as well as broad parameter studies. For the ocean, the model uses the free surface primitive equations Modular Ocean Model (MOM) and the GFDL/FMS sea-ice model (SIS) is coupled to the oceanic grid. The atmospheric component consists of the FMS B-grid moist primitive equations atmospheric dynamical core with highly simplified physical parameterisations. A simple bucket model is implemented for our idealised land following the GFDL/FMS Land model. The model is supported within the standard MOM releases as one of its many test cases and the source code is thus freely available. Here we describe the model components and present a climatology of coupled simulations achieved with two different geometrical configurations. Throughout the paper, we give a flavour of the potential for this model to be a powerful tool for the climate modelling community by mentioning a wide range of studies that are currently being explored.
Implementation and evaluation of an array of chemical solvers in the Global Chemical Transport Model GEOS-Chem
Authors: Eller P. , Singh K. , Sandu A. , Bowman K. , Henze D. K. , Lee M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper discusses the implementation and performance of an array of gas-phase chemistry solvers for the state-of-the-science GEOS-Chem global chemical transport model. The implementation is based on the Kinetic PreProcessor (KPP). Two perl parsers automatically generate the needed interfaces between GEOS-Chem and KPP, and allow access to the chemical simulation code without any additional programming effort. This work illustrates the potential of KPP to positively impact global chemical transport modeling by providing additional functionality as follows. (1) The user can select a highly efficient numerical integration method from an array of solvers available in the KPP library. (2) KPP offers a wide variety of user options for studies that involve changing the chemical mechanism (e.g., a set of additional reactions is automatically translated into efficient code and incorporated into a modified global model). (3) This work provides access to tangent linear, continuous adjoint, and discrete adjoint chemical models, with applications to sensitivity analysis and data assimilation.
Mapping technique of climate fields between GCM's and ice models
Authors: Reerink T. J. , Kliphuis M. A. , van de Wal R. S. W.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Here, we present a mapping method OBLIMAP, which projects and interpolates fields like surface temperature, surface mass balance, and surface height between a geographical based coordinate system of a General Circulation Model (GCM) and a rectangular based Ice Model (IM). We derive an oblique stereographic projection and its inverse, which holds for any area at the Earth's surface, and which can be combined with two different interpolation methods. The first one is suited to interpolate the projected fields of a coarse GCM grid on a fine meshed IM grid. The second one is appropriate for the opposite case. Both grids are allowed to be arbitrary and irregularly spaced. Therefore the OBLIMAP technique is suitable for any GCM-IM combination. After a first scan of the GCM grid coordinates and the specification of the IM grid, fast mapping of various fields is possible. To and fro (GCM-IM-GCM) mapping tests with the Climate Community System Model (CCSM) at T42 resolution (~313 km) and the Regional Atmospheric Climate Model (RACMO) at ~11 km and ~55 km, show average temperature differences of less than 0.1 K with small standard deviations. OBLIMAP, available at GMD, is an accurate, robust and well-documented mapping method for coupling an IM with a GCM or to map state of the art initial and forcing fields available at geographical coordinates to any local IM grid with an optimal centered oblique projection. Currently, the oblique stereographic and the oblique Lambert azimuthal equal-area projections for both the sphere and the ellipsoid are implemented in OBLIMAP.
Sensitivity of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model v4.7 results for the eastern United States to MM5 and WRF meteorological drivers
Authors: Appel K. W. , Roselle S. J. , Gilliam R. C. , Pleim J. E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper presents a comparison of the operational performances of two Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model v4.7 simulations that utilize input data from the 5th-generation Mesoscale Model (MM5) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological models. Two sets of CMAQ model simulations were performed for January and August 2006. One set utilized MM5 meteorology (MM5-CMAQ) and the other utilized WRF meteorology (WRF-CMAQ), while all other model inputs and options were kept the same. For January, predicted ozone (O3) mixing ratios were higher in the Southeast and lower Mid-west regions in the WRF-CMAQ simulation, resulting in slightly higher bias and error as compared to the MM5-CMAQ simulations. The higher predicted O3 mixing ratios are attributed to less dry deposition of O3 in the WRF-CMAQ simulation due to differences in the calculation of the vegetation fraction between the MM5 and WRF models. The WRF-CMAQ results showed better performance for particulate sulfate (SO42−), similar performance for nitrate (NO3−), and slightly worse performance for nitric acid (HNO3), total carbon (TC) and total fine particulate (PM2.5) mass than the corresponding MM5-CMAQ results. For August, predictions of O3 were notably higher in the WRF-CMAQ simulation, particularly in the southern United States, resulting in increased model bias. Concentrations of predicted particulate SO42− were lower in the region surrounding the Ohio Valley and higher along the Gulf of Mexico in the WRF-CMAQ simulation, contributing to poorer model performance. The primary causes of the differences in the MM5-CMAQ and WRF-CMAQ simulations appear to be due to differences in the calculation of wind speed, planetary boundary layer height, cloud cover and the friction velocity (u∗) in the MM5 and WRF model simulations, while differences in the calculation of vegetation fraction and several other parameters result in smaller differences in the predicted CMAQ model concentrations. The performance for SO42−, NO3− and NH4+ wet deposition was similar for both simulations for January and August.
Incremental testing of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 4.7
Authors: Foley K. M. , Roselle S. J. , Appel K. W. , Bhave P. V. , Pleim J. E. , Otte T. L. , Mathur R. , Sarwar G. , Young J. O. , Gilliam R. C. , Nolte C. G. , Kelly J. T. , Gilliland A. B. , Bash J. O.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper describes the scientific and structural updates to the latest release of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 4.7 (v4.7) and points the reader to additional resources for further details. The model updates were evaluated relative to observations and results from previous model versions in a series of simulations conducted to incrementally assess the effect of each change. The focus of this paper is on five major scientific upgrades: (a) updates to the heterogeneous N2O5 parameterization, (b) improvement in the treatment of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), (c) inclusion of dynamic mass transfer for coarse-mode aerosol, (d) revisions to the cloud model, and (e) new options for the calculation of photolysis rates. Incremental test simulations over the eastern United States during January and August 2006 are evaluated to assess the model response to each scientific improvement, providing explanations of differences in results between v4.7 and previously released CMAQ model versions. Particulate sulfate predictions are improved across all monitoring networks during both seasons due to cloud module updates. Numerous updates to the SOA module improve the simulation of seasonal variability and decrease the bias in organic carbon predictions at urban sites in the winter. Bias in the total mass of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is dominated by overpredictions of unspeciated PM2.5 (PMother) in the winter and by underpredictions of carbon in the summer. The CMAQv4.7 model results show slightly worse performance for ozone predictions. However, changes to the meteorological inputs are found to have a much greater impact on ozone predictions compared to changes to the CMAQ modules described here. Model updates had little effect on existing biases in wet deposition predictions.
Assessment of bias-adjusted PM2.5 air quality forecasts over the continental United States during 2007
Authors: Kang D. , Mathur R. , Trivikrama Rao S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. To develop fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air quality forecasts for the US, a National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) system, which linked NOAA's North American Mesoscale (NAM) meteorological model with EPA's Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model, was deployed in the developmental mode over the continental United States during 2007. This study investigates the operational use of a bias-adjustment technique called the Kalman Filter Predictor approach for improving the accuracy of the PM2.5 forecasts at monitoring locations. The Kalman Filter Predictor bias-adjustment technique is a recursive algorithm designed to optimally estimate bias-adjustment terms using the information extracted from previous measurements and forecasts. The bias-adjustment technique is found to improve PM2.5 forecasts (i.e. reduced errors and increased correlation coefficients) for the entire year at almost all locations. The NAQFC tends to overestimate PM2.5 during the cool season and underestimate during the warm season in the eastern part of the continental US domain, but the opposite is true for the Pacific Coast. In the Rocky Mountain region, the NAQFC system overestimates PM2.5 for the whole year. The bias-adjusted forecasts can quickly (after 2–3 days' lag) adjust to reflect the transition from one regime to the other. The modest computational requirements and systematic improvements in forecast outputs across all seasons suggest that this technique can be easily adapted to perform bias adjustment for real-time PM2.5 air quality forecasts.
Upgrading photolysis in the p-TOMCAT CTM: model validation and assessment of the role of clouds
Authors: Voulgarakis A. , Savage N. H. , Wild O. , Carver G. D. , Clemitshaw K. C. , Pyle J A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A new version of the p-TOMCAT Chemical Transport Model (CTM) which includes an improved photolysis code, Fast-JX, is validated. Through offline testing we show that Fast-JX captures observed J(NO2) and J(O1D) values well, though with some overestimation of J(O1D) when comparing to data retrieved during a flight. By comparing p-TOMCAT output of CO and ozone with measurements, we find that the inclusion of Fast-JX in the CTM strongly improves the latter's ability to capture the seasonality and levels of tracers' concentrations. A probability distribution analysis demonstrates that photolysis rates and oxidant (OH, ozone) concentrations cover a broader range of values when using Fast-JX instead of the standard two-stream photolysis code. This is not only driven by improvements in the seasonality of cloudiness but also even more by the better representation of cloud spatial variability. We use three different cloud treatments to study the radiative effect of clouds on the abundances of a range of tracers and find only modest effects on a global scale. This is consistent with the most relevant recent study. The new version of the validated CTM will be used for a variety of future studies examining the variability of tropospheric composition and its drivers.
Incorporation of the C-GOLDSTEIN efficient climate model into the GENIE framework: the "genie_eb_go_gs" configuration of GENIE
Authors: Marsh R. , Yool A. , Myerscough R. J. , Edwards N. R. , Shepherd J. G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A computationally efficient, intermediate complexity ocean-atmosphere-sea ice model (C-GOLDSTEIN) is incorporated into the Grid ENabled Integrated Earth system modeling (GENIE) framework. This involved decoupling of the three component modules that were re-coupled in a modular way, to allow replacement with alternatives and coupling of further components within the framework. The climate model described here (genie_eb_go_gs) is the most basic version of GENIE in which atmosphere, ocean and sea ice all play an active role. Compared to the original model, latitudinal grid resolution has also been generalized to allow a wider range of surface grids to be used and an altered convection scheme has been added. Some other minor modifications and corrections have been applied. For four default meshes, and using the same default parameters as far as possible, we present the results from spin-up experiments. Evaluation of equilibrium states in terms of composite model-observation errors is demonstrated, with caveats regarding the use of un-tuned key parameters. For each mesh, we also carry out four standard climate experiments, based on international protocols: (i) equilibrium climate response (sensitivity) to doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration; (ii) transient climate response to CO2 concentration, increasing at 1% per annum, until doubling; (iii) response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation to freshwater hosing over 100 years; and (iv) hysteresis of the overturning circulation under slowly-varied freshwater forcing. Climate sensitivity and transient climate response lie in the ranges 2.85–3.13°C and 1.67–1.97°C respectively. The Atlantic overturning collapses under 0.1 Sv hosing, and subsequently recovers, for one of the meshes. Hosing at 1.0 Sv, the overturning collapses, and remains collapsed, on all four meshes. The hysteresis experiments reveal a wide range in stability of the initial state, from strongly monostable to strongly bistable. The dependencies of experimental results on choice of mesh are thus highlighted and discussed.
An isopycnic ocean carbon cycle model
Authors: Assmann K. M. , Bentsen M. , Segschneider J. , Heinze C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The carbon cycle is a major forcing component in the global climate system. Modelling studies aiming to explain recent and past climatic changes and to project future ones thus increasingly include the interaction between the physical and biogeochemical systems. Their ocean components are generally z-coordinate models that are conceptually easy to use but that employ a vertical coordinate that is alien to the real ocean structure. Here we present first results from a newly developed isopycnic carbon cycle model and demonstrate the viability of using an isopycnic physical component for this purpose. As expected, the model represents interior ocean transport of biogeochemical tracers well and produces realistic tracer distributions. Difficulties in employing a purely isopycnic coordinate lie mainly in the treatment of the surface boundary layer which is often represented by a bulk mixed layer. The most significant adjustments of the biogeochemical code for use with an isopycnic coordinate are in the representation of upper ocean biological production. We present a series of sensitivity studies exploring the effect of changes in biogeochemical and physical processes on export production and nutrient distribution. Apart from giving us pointers for further model development, they highlight the importance of preformed nutrient distributions in the Southern Ocean for global nutrient distributions. Use of a prognostic slab atmosphere allows us to assess the effect of the changes in export production on global ocean carbon uptake and atmospheric CO2 levels. Sensitivity studies show that iron limitation for biological particle production, the treatment of light penetration for biological production, and the role of diapycnal mixing result in significant changes of modelled air-sea fluxes and nutrient distributions.
The efficient global primitive equation climate model SPEEDO
Authors: Severijns C. A. , Hazeleger W.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The efficient primitive-equation coupled atmosphere-ocean model SPEEDO is presented. The model includes an interactive sea-ice and land component. SPEEDO is a global earth system model of intermediate complexity. It has a horizontal resolution of T30 (triangular truncation at wave number 30) and 8 vertical layers in the atmosphere, and a horizontal resolution of 2 degrees and 20 levels in the ocean. The parameterizations in SPEEDO are developed in such a way that it is a fast model suitable for large ensembles or long runs on a workstation. The model has no flux correction. We compare the mean state and inter-annual variability of the model with observational fields of the atmosphere and ocean. In particular the atmospheric circulation, the mid-latitude patterns of variability and teleconnections from the tropics are well simulated. To show the model's capabilities, we performed a long control run and an ensemble experiment with enhanced greenhouse gasses. The long control run shows that the model is stable. CO2 doubling and future climate change scenario experiments show a climate sensitivity of 1.84 K W−1 m−2, which is within the range of state-of-the-art climate models. The spatial response patterns are comparable to state-of-the-art, higher resolution models. However, for very high greenhouse concentrations the parameterizations are not valid. We conclude that the model is suitable for past, current and future climate simulations and for exploring wide parameter ranges and mechanisms of variability. However, as with any model, users should be careful when using the model beyond the range of physical realism of the parameterizations and model setup.
Incremental testing of the community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 4.7
Authors: Foley K. M. , Roselle S. J. , Appel K. W. , Bhave P. V. , Pleim J. E. , Otte T. L. , Mathur R. , Sarwar G. , Young J. O. , Gilliam R. C. , Nolte C. G. , Kelly J. T. , Gilliland A. B. , Bash J. O.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper describes the scientific and structural updates to the latest release of the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system version 4.7 (v4.7) and points the reader to additional resources for further details. The model updates were evaluated relative to observations and results from previous model versions in a series of simulations conducted to incrementally assess the effect of each change. The focus of this paper is on five major scientific upgrades: (a) updates to the heterogeneous N2O5 parameterization, (b) improvement in the treatment of secondary organic aerosol (SOA), (c) inclusion of dynamic mass transfer for coarse-mode aerosol, (d) revisions to the cloud model, and (e) new options for the calculation of photolysis rates. Incremental test simulations over the eastern United States during January and August 2006 are evaluated to assess the model response to each scientific improvement, providing explanations of differences in results between v4.7 and previously released CMAQ model versions. Particulate sulfate predictions are improved across all monitoring networks during both seasons due to cloud module updates. Numerous updates to the SOA module improve the simulation of seasonal variability and decrease the bias in organic carbon predictions at urban sites in the winter. Bias in the total mass of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is dominated by overpredictions of unspeciated PM2.5 (PMother) in the winter and by underpredictions of carbon in the summer. The CMAQ v4.7 model results show slightly worse performance for ozone predictions. However, changes to the meteorological inputs are found to have a much greater impact on ozone predictions compared to changes to the CMAQ modules described here. Model updates had little effect on existing biases in wet deposition predictions.
LANL*V1.0: a radiation belt drift shell model suitable for real-time and reanalysis applications
Authors: Koller J. , Reeves G. D. , Friedel R. H. W.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We describe here a new method for calculating the magnetic drift invariant, L*, that is used for modeling radiation belt dynamics and for other space weather applications. L* (pronounced L-star) is directly proportional to the integral of the magnetic flux contained within the surface defined by a charged particle moving in the Earth's geomagnetic field. Under adiabatic changes to the geomagnetic field L* is a conserved quantity, while under quasi-adiabatic fluctuations diffusion (with respect to a particle's L*) is the primary term in equations of particle dynamics. In particular the equations of motion for the very energetic particles that populate the Earth's radiation belts are most commonly expressed by diffusion in three dimensions: L*, energy (or momentum), and pitch angle (the dot product of velocity and the magnetic field vector). Expressing dynamics in these coordinates reduces the dimensionality of the problem by referencing the particle distribution functions to values at the magnetic equatorial point of a magnetic "drift shell" (or L-shell) irrespective of local time (or longitude). While the use of L* aids in simplifying the equations of motion, practical applications such as space weather forecasting using realistic geomagnetic fields require sophisticated magnetic field models that, in turn, require computationally intensive numerical integration. Typically a single L* calculation can require on the order of 105 calls to a magnetic field model and each point in the simulation domain and each calculated pitch angle has a different value of L*. We describe here the development and validation of a neural network surrogate model for calculating L* in sophisticated geomagnetic field models with a high degree of fidelity at computational speeds that are millions of times faster than direct numerical field line mapping and integration. This new surrogate model has applications to real-time radiation belt forecasting, analysis of data sets involving tens of satellite-years of observations, and other problems in space weather.
ECHMERIT V1.0 – a new global fully coupled mercury-chemistry and transport model
Authors: Jung G. , Hedgecock I. M. , Pirrone N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Mercury is a global pollutant due to its long lifetime in the atmosphere. Its hemispheric transport patterns and eventual deposition are therefore of major concern. For the purpose of global atmospheric mercury chemistry and transport modelling the ECHMERIT model was developed. ECHMERIT, based on the global circulation model ECHAM5 differs from most global mercury models in that the emissions, chemistry (including general tropospheric chemistry and mercury chemistry), transport and deposition are coupled on-line to the GCM. The chemistry mechanism includes an online calculation of photolysis rate constants using the Fast-J photolysis mechanism, the CBM-Z tropospheric gas-phase mechanism and aqueous-phase chemistry based on the MECCA mechanism. Additionally, a mercury chemistry mechanism that incorporates gas and aqueous phase mercury chemistry is included. A detailed description of the model, including the wet and dry deposition modules, and the implemented emissions is given in this technical report. First model testing and evaluation show a satisfactory model performance for surface ozone and mercury concentrations (with a mean bias of 1.46 ppb for ozone and a mean bias of 13.55 ppq for TGM when compared with EMEP station data). Requirements regarding measurement data and emission inventories which could considerably improve model skill are discussed.
A fast stratospheric chemistry solver: the E4CHEM submodel for the atmospheric chemistry global circulation model EMAC
Authors: Baumgaertner A. J. G. , Jöckel P. , Steil B. , Tost H. , Sander R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model ECHAM5/MESSy (EMAC) and the atmospheric chemistry box model CAABA are extended by a computationally very efficient submodel for atmospheric chemistry, E4CHEM. It focuses on stratospheric chemistry but also includes background tropospheric chemistry. It is based on the chemistry of MAECHAM4-CHEM and is intended to serve as a simple and fast alternative to the flexible but also computationally more demanding submodel MECCA. In a model setup with E4CHEM, EMAC is now also suitable for simulations of longer time scales. The reaction mechanism contains basic O3, CH4, CO, HOx, NOx and ClOx gas phase chemistry. In addition, E4CHEM includes optional fast routines for heterogeneous reactions on sulphate aerosols and polar stratospheric clouds (substituting the existing submodels PSC and HETCHEM), and scavenging (substituting the existing submodel SCAV). We describe the implementation of E4CHEM into the MESSy structure of CAABA and EMAC. For some species the steady state in the box model differs by up to 100% when compared to results from CAABA/MECCA due to different reaction rates. After an update of the reaction rates in E4CHEM the mixing ratios in both boxmodel and 3-D model simulations are in satisfactory agreement with the results from a simulation where MECCA with a similar chemistry scheme was employed. Finally, a comparison against a simulation with a more complex and already evaluated chemical mechanism is presented in order to discuss shortcomings associated with the simplification of the chemical mechanism.
Current status of the ability of the GEMS/MACC models to reproduce the tropospheric CO vertical distribution as measured by MOZAIC
Authors: Elguindi N. , Ordóñez C. , Thouret V. , Flemming J. , Stein O. , Huijnen V. , Moinat P. , Inness A. , Peuch V.-H. , Stohl A. , Turquety S. , Cammas J.-P. , Schultz M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Vertical profiles of CO taken from the MOZAIC aircraft database are used to present (1) a global analysis of CO seasonal averages and interannual variability for the years 2002–2007 and (2) a global validation of CO estimates produced by the MACC models for 2004, including an assessment of their ability to transport pollutants originating from the Alaskan/Canadian wildfires. Seasonal averages and interannual variability from several MOZAIC sites representing different regions of the world show that CO concentrations are highest and most variable during the winter season. The inter-regional variability is significant with concentrations increasing eastward from Europe to Japan. The impact of the intense boreal fires, particularly in Russia, during the fall of 2002 on the Northern Hemisphere CO concentrations throughout the troposphere is well represented by the MOZAIC data. A global validation of the GEMS/MACC GRG models which include three stand-alone CTMs (MOZART, MOCAGE and TM5) and the coupled ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)/MOZART model with and without MOPITT CO data assimilation show that the models have a tendency to underestimate CO. The models perform best in Europe and the US where biases range from 0 to –25% in the free troposphere and from 0 to –50% in the surface and boundary layers (BL). The biases are largest in the winter and during the daytime when emissions are highest, indicating that current inventories are too low. Data assimilation is shown to reduce biases by up to 25% in some regions. The models are not able to reproduce well the CO plumes originating from the Alaskan/Canadian wildfires at downwind locations in the eastern US and Europe, not even with assimilation. Sensitivity tests reveal that this is mainly due to deficiencies in the fire emissions inventory and injection height.
Development of a system emulating the global carbon cycle in Earth system models
Authors: Tachiiri K. , Hargreaves J. C. , Annan J. D. , Oka A. , Abe-Ouchi A. , Kawamiya M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. By combining the strong points of general circulation models (GCMs), which contain detailed and complex processes, and Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs), which are quick and capable of large ensembles, we have developed a loosely coupled model (LCM) which can represent the outputs of a GCM-based Earth system model using much smaller computational resources. We address the problem of relatively poor representation of precipitation within our EMIC, which prevents us from directly coupling it to a vegetation model, by coupling it to a precomputed transient simulation using a full GCM. The LCM consists of three components: an EMIC (MIROC-lite) which consists of a 2-D energy balance atmosphere coupled to a low resolution 3-D GCM ocean including an ocean carbon cycle; a state of the art vegetation model (Sim-CYCLE); and a database of daily temperature, precipitation, and other necessary climatic fields to drive Sim-CYCLE from a precomputed transient simulation from a state of the art AOGCM. The transient warming of the climate system is calculated from MIROC-lite, with the global temperature anomaly used to select the most appropriate annual climatic field from the pre-computed AOGCM simulation which, in this case, is a 1% pa increasing CO2 concentration scenario. By adjusting the climate sensitivity of MIROC-lite, the transient warming of the LCM could be adjusted to closely follow the low sensitivity (4.0 K) version of MIROC3.2. By tuning of the physical and biogeochemical parameters it was possible to reasonably reproduce the bulk physical and biogeochemical properties of previously published CO2 stabilisation scenarios for that model. As an example of an application of the LCM, the behavior of the high sensitivity version of MIROC3.2 (with 6.3 K climate sensitivity) is also demonstrated. Given the highly tunable nature of the model, we believe that the LCM should be a very useful tool for studying uncertainty in global climate change.
Formulation of and numerical studies with the Dutch Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulation (DALES)
Authors: Heus T. , van Heerwaarden C. C. , Jonker H. J. J. , Pier Siebesma A. , Axelsen S. , van den Dries K. , Geoffroy O. , Moene A. F. , Pino D. , de Roode S. R. , Vilà-Guerau de Arellano J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The current version of the Dutch Atmospheric Large-Eddy Simulation (DALES) model is presented. DALES is a large-eddy simulation model designed for process studies of the atmospheric boundary layer, including convective and stable boundary layers as well as cloudy boundary layers. In addition, DALES can be used for studies of more specific cases, such as flow over sloping or heterogeneous terrain, and dispersion of inert and chemically active species. This paper contains an extensive description of the physical and numerical formulation of the code, and gives an overview of its applications and accomplishments in recent years.
The role of diagenisis in the hydrogeological stratification of carbonate aquifers: an example from the chalk at Fair Cross, Berkshire, UK
Authors: Bloomfield J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Carbonate rocks form important aquifers in many parts of the world and in north-west Europe the Chalk is a primary source of potable water. When flushed with relatively fresh groundwaters, the Chalk may undergo significant diagenetic alteration at relatively shallow depths resulting in a physically and hydrogeochemically stratified aquifer. Diagenetic affects may have important implications for the effective exploitable thickness of the Chalk aquifer and for water quality. In order to assess the affects of diagenesis on the properties of carbonate aquifers, matrix porosity, permeability, pore water and rock chemistry profiles have been analysed for a 300 m deep borehole through the Chalk at the western end of the London Basin. An abrupt change in the matrix porosity profile at 155 mbgl indicates a change in dominant mode of historic diagenesis from mechanical compaction above 155 mbgl to predominantly pressure solution compaction below 155 mbgl. Pore water and rock chemistry profiles also change abruptly across this depth interval, suggesting that the present day hydrogeology is controlled by historic diagenetic trends. Below 155 mbgl, pore waters are relatively saline and there is no evidence for groundwater flow; above 155 mbgl pore waters are relatively fresh and geochemical evidence for incon-gruent carbonate dissolution indicates contemporary groundwater circulation. Possible physical and chemical evolution paths for the Chalk at Fair Cross are discussed. The results provide a hydrogeological context for other studies of the long-term response of carbonate aquifers to base-line changes in sea-level and pore water chemistry and also enable studies with relatively short time-frames or of localized phenomena to be placed in the broader context of the evolution of carbonate aquifers.
Acidification in Three Lake District Tarns: Historical Iong term trends and modelled future behaviour under changing sulphate and nitrate deposition
Authors: Whitchead P. G. , Barlow J. , Haworth E. Y. , Adamson J. K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Three upland Lake District Tarns, Scoat, Greendale and Burnmoor, have been evaluated using MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater In Catchments) to reconstruct past, present and future chemical behaviour. The modelled historical changes in acidity are compared with palaeoecological estimation of pH to demonstrate model validity. Chemistry as simulated for all anions and cations and two of the three lakes are shown to have undergone significant acidification. The effects of changing atmospheric pollution levels on lake chemistry is evaluated and 80-90% sulphur reduction levels are required to achieve zero alkalinity. The impacts of increased nitrogen deposition are assessed and are shown to further delay reversibility.
The United Kingdom Meteorological Office rainfall and evaporation calculation system: MORECS version 2.0-an overview
Authors: Hough M. N. , Jones R. J. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The operational system known as MORECS which provides estimates of evaporation, soil moisture deficit and effective precipitation under British climatic conditions has been revised as version 2.0. An overview of the new system is described with emphasis on the new additions. The major changes from the older version (Thomson, Barrie and Ayles, 1981) include the introduction of the crop oil-seed rape, a revised treatment of soils and available water capacity and a land use data base which is representative of the 1990s.
Land use and water issues in the uplands with reference to the Plynlimon study
Authors: Hudson J. A. , Gilman K. , Calder I. R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper presents the background to the catchment studies at Plynlimon, through outlining the original water resource concerns which led to the establishment of the studies, the principal land use changes, land use impacts that were considered and the principal research findings. The "scene" is also set for the new areas of research, presented in this special issue, which are focused less on strictly water resource issues, but more on holistic concerns about the management of land use to protect and conserve the natural environment.
A consideration of rainfall, runoff and losses at Plynlimon in the context of long term hydrological variability in the UK and maritime Western Europe
Authors: Green S. , Marsh T. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Important questions concerning the resilience of current water management strategies have been raised by the recent volatility of climatic conditions across large parts of western Europe. The last decade, overall, has been exceptionally warm and there have been very large spatial and temporal variations in rainfall, river flows and aquifer recharge rates. Examination of historical rainfall and runoff records for parts of maritime western Europe confirms that there is no close modern parallel to the conditions experienced recently. Some-but far from complete-consistency with a number of favoured climate change scenarios may be recognised. Analyses of recent trends in lengthy rainfall and runoff series for the UK demonstrate significant regional differences and provide conflicting signals especially in relation to trends in catchment losses. Difficulties in reconciling the results from different areas may reflect both real hydroclimatological differences between catchments and variations in the precision of hydrometric time series-uncertainties in the assessment of areal precipitation in upland areas in particular. The dense monitoring networks at Plynlimon together with a rigorous data quality control programme underpins the value of the hydrometric datasets as important benchmarks against which to assess the significance of the very unusual patterns of rainfall and runoff which have characterised the recent past. This paper places the rainfall, runoff and losses data for Plynlimon in the perspective provided by a number of long hydrometric records for maritime western Europe. The representativeness of the Plynlimon base period is considered with particular reference to both the historical stability which typifies the great majority of European hydrometric time series and the recent extension in the recorded range of accumulated rainfall and runoff totals which has been identified in some regions (e.g. western Scotland and Norway). Particular attention is directed to changes in seasonal rainfall and runoff patterns and the recent increases in evaporative demands. Some of the implications for the overall water balance and for water resource management are considered.
Temporal variations in near surface soil moisture at two contrasting sites in the Wye catchment and their control on storm streamflow generation
Authors: Roberts G. , Crane S. B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Near surface soil moisture measurements were recorded at hourly intervals at two contrasting sites within the Cyff sub-catchment using a prototype capacitance probe system. In a mire area within a valley bottom, over the twelve month recording period, very little change in moisture content occurred. At the other site, a well drained area on a steeply sloping hillside, major variations occurred with significant soil moisture deficits being generated during a particularly dry summer. Soil moisture on the slope responded rapidly to rainfall inputs during wet periods, with little response during particularly dry periods. A number of rainfall events was analysed to determine whether changes in soil moisture could be used to characterise storm hydrographs for the Cyff and the Gwy, two sub-catchments being composed of differing percentages of mire area and steep slopes. It was found that percentage runoff for the Cyff was correlated with antecedent soil moisture on the slope, though the agreements for peak flow and lag time were poorer. For the Gwy, poor agreements were obtained for all three hydrograph characteristics. A simple formulation, based on storm rainfall and antecedent soil moisture deficits in the slope and mire areas, gave good agreement with storm streamflow volumes.
Fluvial sediment inputs to upland gravel bed rivers draining forested catchments: potential ecological impacts
Authors: Marks S. D. , Rutt G. P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. As identified by the detailed long-term monitoring networks at Plynlimon, increased sediment supply to upland fluvial systems is often associated with forestry land-use and practice. Literature is reviewed, in the light of recent results from Plynlimon sediment studies, to enable identification of the potential ecological impacts of fluvial particulate inputs to upland gravel bed rivers draining forested catchments similar to the headwaters of the River Severn. Both sediment transport and deposition can have significant impacts upon aquatic vertebrates, invertebrates and plants.
Bank erosion events and processes in the Upper Severn basin
Authors: Lawler D. M. , Couperthwaite J. , Bull L. J. , Harris N. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper examines river bank retreat rates, individual erosion events, and the processes that drive them in the Upper Severn basin, mid-Wales, UK. Traditional erosion pin networks were used to deliver information on patterns of downstream change in erosion rates. In addition, the novel automatic Photo-Electronic Erosion Pin (PEEP) monitoring system was deployed to generate near-continuous data on the temporal distribution of bank erosion and accretion: this allowed focus on the magnitude and timing of individual erosional and depositional events in relation to specific flow episodes. Erosion dynamics data from throughout the Upper Severn basin are combined with detailed information on bank material properties and spatial change in channel hydraulics derived from direct field survey, to assess the relationships between flow properties and bank erosion rates. Results show that bank erosion rates generally increase downstream, but relate more strongly to discharge than to reach-mean shear stress, which peaks near the basin head. Downstream changes in erosion mechanisms and boundary materials, across the upland/lowland transition (especially the degree of development of composite bank material profiles), are especially significant. Examples of sequences of bank erosion events show how the PEEP system can (a) quantify the impact of individual, rather than aggregated, forcing events, (b) reveal the full complexity of bank response to given driving agents, including delayed erosion events, and (c) establish hypotheses of process-control in bank erosion systems. These findings have important implications for the way in which bank erosion problems are researched and managed. The complex responses demonstrated have special significance for the way in which bank processes and channel-margin sediment injections should be handled in river dynamics models.
Water temperature of Plynlimon streams
Authors: Crisp D. T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Water temperature data were collected from five stations in the upper Severn system. Temperatures were compared between a stream with a 335 ha catchment after it had flowed for c. 1.5 km through clear felled land and a stream with a 347 ha catchment after it had flowed for c. 2.5 km through coniferous forest. The results suggest that the effect of forest cover was to lower the annual mean water temperature by c. 0.4°C, mainly in summer and through depression of both daily maxima and daily minima, though mainly the former. There was no clear evidence of temperature elevation in the afforested stream in winter. It is important to note that these conclusions depend on several assumptions that cannot be substantiated objectively. There is some evidence that water temperatures in some parts of the upper Severn system may be influenced by groundwater inputs.
Major, minor and trace element composition of cloudwater and rainwater at Plynlimon
Authors: Wilkinson J. , Reynolds B. , Neal C. , Hill S. , Neal M. , Harrow M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The composition of cloudwater samples collected at Plynlimon, Mid Wales by the Institute of Hydrology is described based on one of the most comprehensive chemical records for deposition in the UK. Comparison with bulk rainwater samples for the same area demonstrates a tenfold enrichment of most elements in cloudwater. Large variations in cloudwater composition occur due to variations in marine and terrestrial/anthropogenic sources, general weather patterns, atmospheric circulation and seasonal effects. All trace metal concentrations are associated with anthropogenic contamination. The lanthanides La, Cc and Pr, and Y are highly correlated in ratios associated with lithogenic sources and fossil fuel combustion. Outliers suggest the influence of catalysts used in the petrochemical cracking process. Plantation forestry significantly enhances the annual deposition of solutes from cloudwater; between 15 and 40% of most constituents to upland forested catchments and around 50% for NO3, B and Cd come from cloud deposition. In upland moorland areas, only 10% of the annual deposited load of inorganic constituents comes from cloudwater.