bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
PEMODELAN REGRESI SPLINE (Studi Kasus: Herpindo Jaya Cabang Ngaliyan)
Authors: PUTRA I MADE BUDIANTARA , SRINADI I GUSTI AYU MADE , SUMARJAYA I WAYAN
Published: August 2017

Regression analysis is a method of data analysis to describe the relationship between response variables and predictor variables. There are two approaches to estimating the regression function. They are parametric and nonparametric approaches. The parametric approach is used when the relationship between the predictor variables and the response variables are known or the shape of the regression curve is known. Meanwhile, the nonparametric approach is used when the form of the relationship between the response and predictor variables is unknown or no information about the form of the regression function. The aim of this study are to determine the best spline nonparametric regression model on data of quality of the product, price, and advertising on purchasing decisions of Yamaha motorcycle with optimal knots point and to compare it with the multiple regression linear based on the coefficient of determination (R2) and mean square error (MSE). Optimal knot points are defined by two point knots. The result of this analysis is that for this data multiple regression linear is better than the spline regression one.
IMPLEMENTASI METODE BOOTSTRAP DALAM INFERENSI TITIK-TITIK BIPLOT AMMI MODEL AMMI CAMPURAN (MIXED AMMI) (Studi Kasus: Menduga Stabilitas Genotipe Padi)
Authors: TRISNAYANTI NI PUTU AYU DINITA , SUKARSA I KOMANG GDE , SUCIPTAWATI NI LUH PUTU
Published: August 2017

In this research bootstrap methods are used to determine the points inference of biplot figures on the analysis of AMMI. If the environmental factors are assumed to be random factors, then Mixed AMMI is used as a model of analysis.  In the analysis of the stabilit, the main components score interaction used are KUI1 and KUI2. The purpose of this study is to determine the Biplot figures based on two scores these are KUI with the greatest diversity of Mixed AMMI models and the points inference by using the bootstrap method. The stable genotypes obtained from biplot AMMI2 are G1, G5, and G6. Based on points inference of each genotype, G1 and G5 can be regarded as the most stable genotype. This is because the distribution of G1 and G5 are the closest to the center point (0,0) and both of them have  a small radius.
IMPLEMENTASI METODE MARKOV CHAIN MONTE CARLO DALAM PENENTUAN HARGA KONTRAK BERJANGKA KOMODITAS
Authors: SETIAWANI PUTU AMANDA , DHARMAWAN KOMANG , SUMARJAYA I WAYAN
Published: August 2017

The aim of the research is to implement Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method to price the futures contract of cocoa commodities. The result shows that MCMC is more flexible than Standard Monte Carlo (SMC) simulation method because MCMC method uses hit-and-run sampler algorithm to generate proposal movements that are subsequently accepted or rejected with a probability that depends on the distribution of the target that we want to be achieved. This research shows that MCMC method is suitable to be used to simulate the model of cocoa commodity price movement. The result of this research is a simulation of future contract prices for the next three months and future contract prices that must be paid at the time the contract expires. Pricing future contract by using MCMC method will produce the cheaper contract price if it compares to Standard Monte Carlo simulation.
PENERAPAN MODEL EGARCH PADA ESTIMASI VOLATILITAS HARGA MINYAK KELAPA SAWIT
Authors: PRIHANDINI YOSEVA AGUNG , DHARMAWAN KOMANG , SARI KARTIKA
Published: August 2017

Good news and bad news (commonly known as the asymmetric effect) on the price of palm oil, has been the grounds of palm oil price volatility. Estimation of volatility needs to be conducted for the purposes of advance financial analysis namely computation of the risk factors, portfolio, futures, etc. In addition, the data of palm oil price is heterscedastical. The heteroscedasticity needs to be overcome in order to generate a sound estimation of volatility. One of the forecasting models for heteroscedastical data and that capable of explaining the good news and bad news over the commodity’s price is the Exponential Autoregressive Conditional Heterocedastic (EGARCH) model.The result of this research, the best of EGARCH models was EGARCH(1,1) with t-distribution. That base of AIC and SIC value.
KLASIFIKASI KARAKTERISTIK KECELAKAAN LALU LINTAS DI KOTA DENPASAR DENGAN PENDEKATAN CLASSIFICATION AND REGRESSION TREES (CART)
Authors: JIWADIANA I GEDE AGUS , SUKARSA I KOMANG GDE , SRINADI I GUSTI AYU MADE
Published: August 2017

The aim of this research is to determine the classification characteristics of traffic accidents in Denpasar city in January-July 2014 by using Classification And Regression Trees (CART). Then, for determine the explanatory variables into the main classifier of CART. The result showed that optimum CART generate three terminal node. First terminal node, there are 12 people were classified as heavy traffic accident characteritics with single accident, and second terminal nodes, there are 68 people were classified as minor traffic accident characteristics by type of traffic accident front-rear, front-front, front-side, pedestrians, side-side and location of traffic accident in district road and sub-district road. For third terminal node, there are 291 people were classified as medium traffic accident characteristics by type of traffic accident front-rear, front-front, front-side, pedestrians, side-side and location of traffic accident in municipality road and explanatory variables into the main splitter to make of CART is type of traffic accident with maximum homogeneity measure of 0.03252.
MENENTUKAN FORMULA PREMI TAHUNAN TIDAK KONSTAN PADA ASURANSI JOINT LIFE
Authors: SUBADRA I GEDE BAGUS PASEK , WIDANA I NYOMAN , NILAKUSMAWATI DESAK PUTU EKA
Published: August 2017

The aim of this research was to determine the annual premium formula that turns on the joint life insurance. This formula uses the reference insurance contracts of the previous research Insurance Models for Joint Life and Last Survivor Benefits. The first step is to determine the value of mortality tables by using the Table Helligman-pollard. Furthermore, determining the value of a life annuity and single premium. The results of this research was formula to be affected by the changing premium () with the increase and decrease in constant interest.
PERBANDINGAN CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM) DAN THREE FACTORS MODEL FAMA AND FRENCH (TFMFF) DALAM MENGESTIMASI RETURN SAHAM
Authors: PITRIYANTI KADEK MIRA , DHARMAWAN KOMANG , GANDHIADI G.K.
Published: August 2017

In 1996, Fama and French developed the CAPM in Three Factor Model Fama and French (TFMFF) to analyze the relationship between risk with rate of return by adding firm size factor that is proxied by Small Minus Big (SMB) and value factor at Book to Market Ratio that is proxied by High Minus Low (HML) on the CAPM model. The aim of this research is to compare the ability of CAPM and TFMFF in estimating the returns on six types of portfolios which are formed based on firm size and BE/ME. Selected samples are stocks of LQ-45 in period of February 2014, which have passed the selection of firm profits and ROE Warren Buffett criteria. Simple linear regression and Multiple linear regression with t test and F test statistics are used to demonstrate the influence and significance level of each variable. The results showed that TFMFF was more superior than CAPM. Market risk factor consistently affected each portfolio. SMB and HML is not always significantly effect on each portfolio, such as portfolio B/H, only market risk factor has a significant effect. However, the addition of SMB factors and HML factors could increase the coefficient of determination in each formed portfolio.
ESTIMASI NILAI CONDITIONAL VALUE AT RISK MENGGUNAKAN FUNGSI GAUSSIAN COPULA
Authors: HIDAYATI HERLINA , DHARMAWAN KOMANG , SUMARJAYA I WAYAN
Published: August 2017

Copula is already widely used in financial assets, especially in risk management. It is due to the ability of copula, to capture the nonlinear dependence structure on multivariate assets. In addition, using copula function doesn’t require the assumption of normal distribution. There fore it is suitable to be applied to financial data. To manage a risk the necessary measurement tools can help mitigate the risks. One measure that can be used to measure risk is Value at Risk (VaR). Although VaR is very popular, it has several weaknesses. To overcome the weakness in VaR, an alternative risk measure called CVaR can be used. The porpose of this study is to estimate CVaR using Gaussian copula. The data we used are the closing price of Facebook and Twitter stocks. The results from the calculation using 90%  confidence level showed that the risk that may be experienced is at 4,7%, for 95% confidence level it is at 6,1%, and for 99% confidence level it is at 10,6%.
MENENTUKAN PREMI TAHUNAN UNTUK TIGA ORANG PADA ASURANSI JIWA HIDUP GABUNGAN (JOINT LIFE)
Authors: BHUANA TRI YANA , WIDANA I NYOMAN , HARINI LUH PUTU IDA
Published: August 2017

Life insurance products consist of a single life insurance and joint life insurance. Joint life is a state where the rule die life is a combination of two or more factors, such as the husband-wife, parent-child. The research is to obtain the formula of the annual premium of joint life insurance with the age of x, y, and z. By using formula and constants Helligmann-Pollard will be determined value of mortality tables, life annuity and single premium to get the formula annual premium joint life insurance for three persons. In addition, this study also aims to get the number of annual premium joint life insurance for a household of three consisting of a married couple and one son with the ages of 50, 45, dan 15 years old, with the interest rate of 5% used. For the contract terms of one and two years, the annual premium of joint life for two persons respectively and greater than the joint life insurance of three persons. While for three to ten years contract, the annual premium of joint life insurance three person is bigger than the joint life insurance for two persons.
OPTIMALISASI PERENCANAAN PRODUKSI DENGAN PREEMPTIVE GOAL PROGRAMMING (STUDI KASUS: UD. DODOL MADE MERTA TEJAKULA, SINGARAJA)
Authors: DEVIYANTI NI PUTU , TASTRAWATI NI KETUT TARI , SUMARJAYA I WAYAN
Published: August 2017

One of the companies in production and marketing of dodol in Singaraja area is UD. Dodol Made Merta. This company produces four variants of dodol namely dodol merah, dodol kayu sugih, dodol ketan hitam, and dodol kacang. All the four dodol variants have a different demand levels.This aim of this research is to determine the optimal prediction of the amount of production that must be produced every month so that profit can be maximized by minimizing the cost of production. This research was done using two methods ARIMA. The best model for dodol merah is ARIMA (1,0,1), dodol kayu sugihis ARIMA(1,0,0), dodol ketan hitam is ARIMA (1,0,0) and dodol kacang is ARIMA(0.01).
ANALISIS PRIORITAS SOLUSI KEMACETAN LALU LINTAS DI KOTA DENPASAR DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE ANALYTIC NETWORK PROCESS
Authors: ISMIRANTI NI WAYAN NINING , KENCANA I PUTU EKA N. , SUKARSA I KOMANG GDE
Published: August 2017

The aim of this research is to find the alternative solutions that could be used to handle the traffic congestions in the Denpasar City and the priorities of each alternative. The  main problem of this research is determining the appropriateness of alternatives and its criterias that could be used to set the priorities of the alternatives. Based on the interview with the  transport experts of Denpasar City, there are three main factors that affect the traffic congestion i.e (1) the ratio of the volume of vehicles on the road capacity, (2) the existing traffic management, and the traffic regulation . The  interviewee also suggest that there are six alternatives that can be used to handle traffic congestion. These alternatives are (1)improve the public transport system, (2) use technology to monitor and enforce the rules,(3) create a  3 in 1 rule, (4) create  road pricing rule,(5) optimize the  existing management  in the road, and (6) create rule of road zoning. Based on the calculations by Analytic Network Process (ANP) method, improving the public transport system is the best alternative among others that is appropriate to handle traffic congestion in the Denpasar City.
PENENTUAN MODEL PREMI TIDAK KONSTAN PADA ASURANSI DANA PENSIUN
Authors: JENITA LIA , WIDANA I NYOMAN , NILAKUSMAWATI DESAK PUTU EKA
Published: August 2017

Pension plan is an effort to anticipate the life of old on the day. In the pension program, there are two methods of normal due’s calculation to be paid by the insured each year, the Entry Age Normal method, namely calculation of normal dues with constant premiums and projected unit credit method, namely calculation of normal dues with Premium Increases Each year or is not constant. This paper wants to develop an inconstant premium calculation method with constant premium increase annually. Where the pension plan participants’ age when he joined the pension plan is 19 years and the retirement age on this contract is 55 years, with premium increases of 5% of the normal dues early. The large ratio of premiums is, for dues normal at the age of 19 years until the age of 28 years, but for dues normal at the age of 29 years to the age of 33 years and to normal dues at the age of 34 years old until the age of one year before retirement.
PENERAPAN BOOTSTRAP DALAM METODE MINIMUM COVARIANCE DETERMINANT (MCD) DAN LEAST MEDIAN OF SQUARES (LMS) PADA ANALISIS REGRESI LINIER BERGANDA
Authors: DAYANTI NI PUTU IIN VINNY , SUCIPTAWATI NI LUH PUTU , SUSILAWATI MADE
Published: August 2017

Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) Method is a good method to estimate regression parameters when there is no violation in classical assumptions, such as the existence of outlier. Outliers can lead to biased parameters estimator, therefore we need a method that can may not affected by the existence of outlier such as Minimum Covariance Determinant (MCD) and Least Median of Squares (LMS). However, the application of this method is less accurate when it is used for small data. To overcome this problem, it was aplicated bootstrap method in MCD and LMS to determine the comparison of bias in parameters which were produced by both methods in dealing outlier in small data. The used bootstrap method in this study was the residual bootstrap that works by resampling the residuals. By using 95% and 99% confidence level and 5%, 10%  and 15% outlier percentage, MCD-bootstrap and LMS-bootstrap give value of parameter estimators which were unbias for all percentage of outlier. We also found that the widht of range which produced by MCD-bootstrap method was shorter than LMS-bootstrap method produced. This indicates that MCD-bootstrap method was a better method than LMS-bootstrap method.
PENENTUAN HARGA OPSI DAN NILAI HEDGE MENGGUNAKAN PERSAMAAN NON-LINEAR BLACK-SCHOLES
Authors: DENI PUTU AYU , DHARMAWAN KOMANG , GANDHIADI G. K.
Published: August 2017

Option are contracts that give the right to sell and buy the asset at a price and a certain period of time. In addition investors use option as a means of hedge against asset owned. Many methods are used to determine the price of option, one of them by using the Black-Scholes equation. But its use these in the assumption that the value for the constant volatility. On market assumption are not appropriates, so many researchers proposed using a volatility calculation option that is non-constant Black-Scholes equation modelled using the volatility is not constant in the range so as to produce a non-linear equation of  Black-Scholes. In addition to determine the value of hedge ratio. On completions of this study, for the numerical solution of non-linear Black-Scholes equation using method of explicit finite difference scheme. Option use in research us a stock YAHOO!inc. as the underlying asset. The result showed that the price of the option is calculated using non-linear Black-Scholes equation price close on the market. Therefore, it can produce hedge ration for a risk-free portfolio containing of the option and stock.
PENENTUAN CADANGAN PREMI UNTUK ASURANSI JOINT LIFE
Authors: DEWI NI LUH PUTU RATNA , WIDANA I NYOMAN , NILAKUSMAWATI DESAK PUTU EKA
Published: August 2017

Premium reserve is a number of fund that need to be raised by insurance company in preparation for the payment of claims. This study aims to get the formula of premium reserve as well as the value of the premium reserve for joint life insurance by using retrospective calculation method. Joint life insurance participants in this study are limited to 2 people. Calculations in this study is using Indonesian Mortality Table (TMI) 2011, joint life mortality tables, commutation tables, value of annuities, value of single premiums and constant annual premium and using constant interest rates of 5%. The results showed that by using age of the participant insurance joint life of x = 50 and y = 45 years and the premium payment period of t = 10 years, we obtained that the value of premium reserve from the end of the first year until the  end of the 11th year has increased every year, while the value of premium reserves from the end of the 12th year and so on until a lifetime has decreased every year.
PENGELOMPOKAN DESA/KELURAHAN DI KOTA DENPASAR MENURUT INDIKATOR PENDIDIKAN
Authors: APRILIA A.P NI WAYAN ARIS , SRINADI I GUSTI AYU MADE , SARI KARTIKA
Published: August 2017

Cluster analysis is one of data analysis used to classify objects in clusters which has objects with the same characteristics, whereas the other cluster has different characteristics. One part of the method of analysis cluster is hierarchy method. In a hierarchical method there are methods of linkage in the form of incorporation. Generally, methods of linkage is divided into 5 methods: single linkage, complete linkage, average linkage, Ward and centroid.  The purpose of this study was to determine the best method of linkage among the method of single linkage, complete linkage, average linkage, and Ward, using Euclidean and Pearson proximity distance. Base on the smallest value of CTM (Cluster Tightness Measure), the best method of linkage as a result of this research was average linkage in Pearson distance.
ANALISIS HUBUNGAN PENDAPATAN WISATAWAN DAN HARGA PARIWISATA TERHADAP PERMINTAAN PARIWISATA DENGAN VECM
Authors: SIANIPAR MERARY , SUCIPTAWATI NI LUH PUTU , DHARMAWAN KOMANG
Published: August 2017

Tourism demand is focused on estimating variables which influence tourist visit. The tourism demand that we discuss on this research is the tourism demand to Bali of the major tourism-generating country was Australia. The aim of this research is to analyze the relationship between tourist income and tourism price to tourism demand using VECM. VECM requires that the variables in the model must be stationary and fulfilled a cointegration condition. In order to make it valid, the stationarity of variables in the model have to be checked using ADF unit root test. In additon, cointegration between these variables are examined using Johansen’s cointegration test. The results of ADF unit root test show that indicated the tourist income, the tourism price and the tourism demand for Australia data are stationary in first lag or I(1). Cointegration test shows that all variables are cointegrated, i.e. have a long-run relationship. In the long-run, the tourist income and tourism price give positive effect to the tourism demand. This means, the increase of tourist income and tourism price will contribute to the increase in tourism demand. In addition, in the short-run, the tourist income and the tourism price give negative effect to the tourism demand. This means, the increase of tourist income and tourism price will contribute to the decrease in tourism demand.
PENERAPAN METODE FUZZY AHP DALAM PENENTUAN SEKTOR YANG BERPENGARUH TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN PROVINSI BALI
Authors: ADNYANA TJOKORDA GDE AGUNG FRISKA , GANDHIADI G. K. , NILAKUSMAWATI DESAK PUTU EKA
Published: August 2017

The aim of this research is to apply Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process method to determine the dominant sectors of economy Bali Province. This research used survey data from respondents who understand about economy of Bali Province and Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP). The research variables consist of criteria and sub-criteria. The criteria consist of primary sector, secondary, and tertiary, while the sub-criteria consist of 9 sectors of the GRDP. Data processing is done by calculating the weighted average and arrange them into pairwise comparison matrices. Furthermore, the consistency ratio is checked. If consistency ratio less than 0.100 (), the elements of matrices is changed into triangular fuzzy scale and processed with synthetic extent to get the priority. Based on the result of research, the economy of Bali are dominated by tertiary sector in sector group, agriculture and forestry in sub-primary group, manufacturing industry in sub-secondary group, and trade, hotel and restaurant in sub-tertiary group.
APLIKASI ANALISIS KORESPONDENSI UNTUK MELIHAT KARAKTERISTIK USAHA PARIWISATA DI PROVINSI BALI
Authors: KUSUMA AGUST WIRAS ARDI , SRINADI I GUSTI AYU MADE , SARI KARTIKA
Published: August 2017

One of multivariate analysis application was used to see the relationship between two or more quantitative variable and objects within. Multivariate analysis which used in this case is correspondence analysis. This paper will be done correspondence analysis application in order to see the characteristic of tourism business in Bali. In this study it can be seen the characteristic of tourism business in Bali in a form of illustration of tourism business situation of each regencies which mapped in two dimensional plots. The result was Karangasem, Buleleng, Gianyar, Jembrana, Tabanan, and Klungkung were in a group because they have the same development of tourism area business and accommodation service business. However tourism business that was developed in Denpasar and Badung was tour and travel and food and beverage business.
PENENTUAN CADANGAN PREMI DENGAN METODE PREMIUM SUFFICIENCY PADA ASURANSI JIWA SEUMUR HIDUP JOINT LIFE
Authors: PERMATASARI NI PUTU MIRAH , WIDANA I NYOMAN , SARI KARTIKA
Published: August 2017

The aim of this research was to get the formula of premium reserves through the premium sufficiency method. Premium reserve is the amount of fund that is collected by the insurance company in preparation for the claim’s payment. Premium sufficiency method is gross premium calculation. To construct that formula, this research used Tabel Mortalitas Indonesia (TMI) 2011, interest rate 2.5% and cost of alpha %. Based on simulation result in men premium reserve value of age 1 of 56 years propotional with insured periods, but after56 years enhancement of premium reserve value.
BOOTSTRAP AGGREGATING (BAGGING) REGRESI LOGISTIK ORDINAL UNTUK MENGKLASIFIKASIKAN STATUS GIZI BALITA DI KABUPATEN KLUNGKUNG
Authors: SARI PALUPI PURNAMA , SUSILAWATI MADE , SRINADI I GUSTI AYU MADE
Published: August 2017

This research was conducted to determine the variables that significantly influence nutritional status of children based on indicators that defined as height for age (H/A) and to classify children nutritional status into normal, short or very short categories. Height for age (H/A) is indicator used to describe the circumstances of malnutrition short. Short children (stunting) is  children who fail to reach optimal growth. The secondary data was list of 116 data of children aged 24-59 months at UPT. Puskesmas Klungkung I in 2015. The method was used was ordinal logistic regression and bagging ordinal logistic regression. Based on the research results, it was obtained variables children body length at birth, birth weight, and length of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in pregnant woman were significantly affects the nutritional status of children by the classification accuracy level of ordinal logistic regression and misclassification . Classification accuracy of ordinal logistic regression can be improved by bagging ordinal logistic regression method. Bagging works well on classification method which has unstable procedures. One of classification method which has unstable procedures is ordinal logistic regression. Bagging ordinal logistic regression method by 501 times replication capable to improve classification accuracy of ordinal logistic regression model from to , increased .
PERBANDINGAN REGRESI ZERO INFLATED POISSON (ZIP) DAN REGRESI ZERO INFLATED NEGATIVE BINOMIAL (ZINB) PADA DATA OVERDISPERSION (Studi Kasus: Angka Kematian Ibu di Provinsi Bali)
Authors: DEWANTI NI PUTU PREMA , SUSILAWATI MADE , SRINADI I GUSTI AYU MADE
Published: August 2017

Poisson regression is a nonlinear regression which is often used for count data and has equidispersion assumption (variance value equal to mean value). However in practice, equidispersion assumption is often violated. One of it violations is overdispersion (variance value greater than the mean value). One of the causes of overdipersion is excessive number of zero values on the response variable (excess zeros). There are many methods to handle overdispersion because of excess zeros. Two of them are Zero Inflated Poisson (ZIP) regression and Zero Inflated Negative Binomial (ZINB) regression. The purpose of this research is to determine which regression models is better in handling overdispersion data. The data that can be analyzed using the ZIP and ZINB regression is maternal mortality rate in the Province of Bali. Maternal mortality rate data has proportion of zeros value more than 50% on the response variable.  In this research, ZINB regression better than ZIP regression for modeling maternal mortality rate. The independent variable that affects the number of maternal mortality rate in the Province of Bali  is the percentage of mothers who carry a pregnancy visit, with ZINB regression models and .
PENERAPAN METODE FUZZY SUGENO UNTUK MENENTUKAN HARGA JUAL SEPEDA MOTOR BEKAS
Authors: AGUSTIN AMI HILDA , GANDHIADI G. K. , OKA TJOKORDA BAGUS
Published: August 2017

Fuzzy logic is a way to map an input space into an output space. The basic of fuzzy logic is fuzzy set theory. In the fuzzy set theory, the role of membership degree is important to determine the presence of elements in a set. Membership degree is the fundamental feature of reasoning in fuzzy logic. There are several methods that are often used in solving fuzzy inference system, one of them is fuzzy Sugeno method. The aim of this research is applications of fuzzy methods is to forecast to determine the selling price of used motorcycles. In determining the selling price of used motorcycles, there are several things that need to be considered, namely : the production year of the motorcycles, the physical condition of the motorcycles, the origin of the license plates, and the purchase price of the motorcycles. The calculation can be done by using Matlab program. The result obtained were then tested using the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) by calculating difference between the selling price of dealer minus the selling price of fuzzy Sugeno then divided by the selling price of dealer. From the test result, MAPE value obtained was 5,64% . This indicates that error rate below 10%, so we can say the result of these calculation is considerably accurate.
PERAMALAN CURAH HUJAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE ANALISIS SPEKTRAL
Authors: WAHYUNI NI PUTU MIRAH SRI , SUMARJAYA I WAYAN , SRINADI I GUSTI AYU MADE
Published: August 2017

The purpose of this research is the model of forecasting rainfall using spectral analysis method. To obtain complete information on characteristics of time series data we need to examine periodicity of the data. Examining the periodicity of time series data in the frequency domain is called spectral analysis. The results of spectral analysis show that periodogram is clearly dominated by a very large peak at frequency . This frequency corresponds to period of 12 cycle per month. Based on the results of analysis of time series data rainfall is SARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 where the model can be written as The result indicates minimum rainfall happen in January and maximum rainfall happen in August.
ANALISIS KUNJUNGAN ULANG WISATAWAN NUSANTARA DENGAN MODEL KONSTRUK BERHIERARKI
Authors: HERAYANTHI W. DWI , SUKARSA KOMANG GDE , OKA TJOKORDA BAGUS , KENCANA EKA N.
Published: August 2017

This research is aimed to analyze the effect of domestic tourists’ satisfaction towards their intention to revisit destinations at Badung Regency, Province of Bali by using hierarchical construct modeling. Data from 75 local tourists were collected in July through December 2015 and were used to model this causal relationship.  In our model, destination attributes, tourist’s facilities, and destination accessibilities were positioned as the second-order constructs and proposed have effect on tourists’ satisfaction.  Futhermore, satisfaction – in turns – is proposed affects tourist intention to revisit.  We found destination attributes significantly affect tourist satisfaction with its causal value is 0.410 and this satisfaction significantly affects their intention to revisit tourism destinations at Badung Regency with path value as much as 0.764.
PENERAPAN METODE NEWEY WEST DALAM MENGOREKSI STANDARD ERROR KETIKA TERJADI HETEROSKEDASTISITAS DAN AUTOKORELASI PADA ANALISIS REGRESI
Authors: NURLAILA ZAKIAH , SUSILAWATI MADE , NILAKUSMAWATI DESAK PUTU EKA
Published: August 2017

Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) used to estimate the parameters in the regression analysis. If one of the assumptions is not fulfilled, the results of the OLS are no longer best, linear, and unbiased properties. The aim of this research was to find out the application of Newey West method to correct standard error when heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation occurred, and to compare the results of OLS with Newey West method on secondary and simulation data. OLS can still be used to estimate the regression parameter when heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation occurred. However, it will cause bias on standard error of parameter. A method which can correct the standard error of parameters to be unbiased parameter is Newey West method. The secondary data about Passenger Car Milage and data simulated contain heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation. The analysis showed that the Newey West method were known is able to correct standard error when heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation occurred on both of data. It was obtained that Newey west method with and changes the value of the bias standard error of OLS to be unbiased.
PENENTUAN HARGA OPSI BELI TIPE ASIA DENGAN METODE MONTE CARLO-CONTROL VARIATE
Authors: ARTANADI NI NYOMAN AYU , DHARMAWAN KOMANG , JAYANEGARA KETUT
Published: August 2017

Option is a contract between the writer and the holder which entitles the holder to buy or sell an underlying asset at the maturity date for a specified price known as an exercise price. Asian option is a type of financial derivatives which the payoff taking the average value over the time series of the asset price. The aim of the study is to present the Monte Carlo-Control Variate as an extension of Standard Monte Carlo applied on the calculation of the Asian option price. Standard Monte Carlo simulations 10.000.000 generate standard error 0.06 and the option price convergent at Rp.160.00 while Monte Carlo-Control Variate simulations 100.000 generate standard error 0.01 and the option price convergent at Rp.152.00. This shows the Monte Carlo-Control Variate achieve faster option price toward convergent of the Monte Carlo Standar.
PERBANDINGAN HASIL PERHITUNGAN PREMI ASURANSI JIWA ENDOWMENT SUKU BUNGA VASICEK DENGAN DAN TANPA SIMULASI MONTE CARLO
Authors: SARI DESI KURNIA , WIDANA I NYOMAN , SARI KARTIKA
Published: August 2017

Vasicek is one of the stochastic interest rate model that can capture interest rates movement. The aim of this research was to get the comparison of the level premium for an endowment life insurance under stochastic interest rate without and by using Monte Carlo simulation. The result show that the level premium without Monte Carlo simulation is not much different from the result of the level premium by using Monte Carlo simulation. However, the premium calculation  by using Monte Carlo simulation can also be searched the range of losses and gains of the insurance company at certain confidence interval. In this case using a confidence interval of 95%.
[ARTICLE WITHDRAWN] Knockdown of Long Noncoding RNA LINC00152 Suppresses Cellular Proliferation and Invasion in Glioma Cells by Regulating miR-4775
Authors: Zhu Zhankun , Dai Jinhua , Liao Yufeng , Ma Jianbo , Zhou Wei
Published: August 2017

THIS ARTICLE WAS WITHDRAWN BY THE PUBLISHERS IN OCTOBER 2020.
miR-449a Suppresses LDHA-Mediated Glycolysis to Enhance the Sensitivity of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Cells to Ionizing Radiation
Authors: Li Liang , Liu Huijuan , Du Lianjiang , Xi Pan , Wang Qian , Li Yanqin , Liu Di
Published: August 2017

MicroRNA dysregulation contributes to malignant progression, dissemination, and profound treatment resistance in multiple cancers. miR-449a is recognized as a tumor suppresser. However, the roles of miR-449a in lung cancer initiation and progression are largely unknown. Our study aims
to investigate the roles and underlying mechanism of miR-449a in modulating sensitivity to ionizing radiation (IR) in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Lung cancer cells were transfected with miR-449a mimics or negative control and exposed to IR; the levels of target protein, glycolysis,
cell viability, apoptosis, and DNA damage were examined. miR-449a was suppressed in lung cancer tissues and cancer cells (A549 and H1299). IR exposure significantly increased the expression of miR-449a in A549 cells at doses ranging from 4 to 8 Gy at 24 h, whereas no significant change in
miR-449a was found in H1299 cells after IR. When A549 cells were exposed to IR at a dose of 8 Gy, the miR-449a level only had an acute increase within 12 h. miR-449a restoration dramatically suppressed IR-induced cell apoptosis and DNA damage in both A549 and H1299 cells. Bioinformatics analysis
indicated that lactate dehydrogenase A (LDHA) was a potential target of miR-449a. miR-449a mimic transfection substantially suppressed the LDHA expression and production of lactate catalyzed by LDHA as well as glucose uptake. We confirmed that miR-449a could bind to the 3′-UTR of LDHA
mRNA using luciferase reporter assay. LDHA siRNA-transfected cells showed enhanced cell apoptosis and DNA damage in response to IR exposure. miR-449a upregulation enhanced IR sensitivity of lung cancer cells by suppressing LDHA and the subsequent glycolysis.
MicroRNA 125a-5p Inhibits Cell Proliferation and Induces Apoptosis in Hepatitis B Virus-Related Hepatocellular Carcinoma by Downregulation of ErbB3
Authors: Li Guoyun , Zhang Wei , Gong Li , Huang Xiaoping
Published: August 2017

MicroRNAs, a class of endogenous noncoding RNAs, regulate gene expression at the posttranscriptional level and thus take part in multiple biological processes. An increasing number of miRNAs have been found to be dysregulated in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and are involved in liver
tumorigenesis. In this study, miR-125a-5p was found to be obviously downregulated much more in hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related HCC. To investigate the effects of miR-125a-5p, miR-125a-5p was overexpressed in HepG2.2.15 and HepG3X cells. The findings have indicated that overexpression of miR-125a-5p
dramatically inhibited cell proliferation and induced cell apoptosis. Furthermore, overexpression of miR-125a-5p could significantly decrease the secretion of HBsAg and HBeAg. In concordance to this, the expression of ErbB3 was upregulated in human HBV-related HCC tissue, HepG2.2.15 cells,
and HepG3X cells. miR-125a-5p directly targeted ErbB3 and reduced both mRNA and protein levels of ErbB3, which promoted cell proliferation and suppressed cell apoptosis in HCC cells. Our results provide new insights into the function of miR-125a-5p in HBV-related HCC. It is beneficial to gain
insight into the mechanism of HBV infection and pathophysiology of HBV-related HCC.
MicroRNA-154 Inhibits the Growth and Invasion of Gastric Cancer Cells by Targeting DIXDC1/WNT Signaling
Authors: Song Jifu , Guan Zhibin , Li Maojiang , Sha Sha , Song Chao , Gao Zhiwei , Zhao Yongli
Published: August 2017

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) have emerged as pivotal regulators of the development and progression of gastric cancer. Studies have shown that miR-154 is a novel cancer-associated miRNA involved in various cancers. However, the role of miR-154 in gastric cancer remains unknown. Here we aimed to
investigate the biological function and the potential molecular mechanism of miR-154 in gastric cancer. We found that miR-154 was significantly downregulated in gastric cancer tissues and cell lines. The overexpression of miR-154 significantly repressed the growth and invasion of gastric cancer
cells. Bioinformatics analysis and Dual-Luciferase Reporter Assay data showed that miR-154 directly targeted the 3′-untranslated region of Dishevelled‐Axin domain containing 1 (DIXDC1). Real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction and Western blot analyses showed that miR-154
overexpression inhibited DIXDC1 expression. An inverse correlation of miR-154 and DIXDC1 was also demonstrated in gastric cancer specimens. Overexpression of miR-154 also significantly suppressed the activation of WNT signaling. Moreover, restoration of DIXDC1 expression significantly reversed
the inhibitory effect of miR-154 overexpression on the cell proliferation, invasion, and WNT signaling in gastric cancer cells. Overall, these results suggest that miR-154 inhibits gastric cancer cell growth and invasion by targeting DIXDC1 and could serve as a potential therapeutic target
for the treatment of gastric cancer.
Tsunami Disaster Risk And Vulnerability In Coastal Tourism Community: The Case Of Khao Lak Area, Thailand
Authors: Jitpraphai Somrudee Meprasert , Arunotai Narumon , Tiangtrong Ajira
Published: August 2017

Over the past 20 years, Khao Lak coastal areas in Thailand Phang-nga province developed into popular tourism sites, but tourism levels were down for a couple of years after the destructive 2004 tsunami disaster. The Khao Lak area was selected as a case study to develop adaptive guidelines
to assess coastal community risk and vulnerability in an attempt to mitigate future tsunami impact and other coastal hazards. In this article, vulnerability analysis is based on both physical features and the socio/cultural/economic dimensions. Recommendations to reduce vulnerability and increase
local resilience include, but are not limited to, the use of integrated coastal management (ICM) principles and positive socioeconomic enforcement in coastal development planning.
P'urhepecha hyperraising to object: An argument for purely altruistic movement
Authors: Zyman Erik
Published: August 2017

Classical syntactic theory was designed to ensure that raising would be able to proceed out of infinitival clauses, but not out of finite clauses. However, it has since become clear that a number of languages in fact allow raising out of finite clauses (hyperraising). This paper argues that the Mexican isolate P'urhepecha—more specifically, the variety spoken on the island of Janitzio on Lake Pátzcuaro—allows hyperraising to object (cf. Bruening 2002, Tanaka 2002, Halpert & Zeller 2015, Deal 2016), and develops an analysis of this phenomenon on which it involves two steps of purely altruistic (target-driven) movement—i.e., movement driven exclusively by a featural requirement of an attracting head. Alternative analyses of the phenomenon based on Greed (Chomsky 1995, Bošković 2007, a.o.) or Labeling (Chomsky 2013, 2015, a.o.) are considered and shown to face serious problems. P'urhepecha hyperraising to object, then, sheds light on the driving force for movement: it provides an argument for Enlightened Self-Interest (Lasnik 1995, 2003, a.o.), the hypothesis that movement may be driven by a feature either of the moving element or (as here) of an attracting head. The phenomenon also narrows down the space of possibilities for understanding the A/Ā-distinction.
La contribution du Service Central de la Statistique Publique Française a l’insertion de la France dans les échanges internationaux de 1946 a 1961
Authors: Touchelay Béatrice
Published: August 2017

Avec l’ouverture des frontières, l’instauration de l’Europe des Six et la décolonisation, le commerce extérieur de la France change radicalement entre 1946 et 1961. Cette période correspond à la présence du premier directeur général de l’Institut Nation de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), créé à la Libération pour accélérer la reconstruction puis la modernisation de l’économie française. Cet Institut doit élaborer et diffuser des informations quantifiées portant sur l’activité intérieure et sur celle de l’étranger afin que les gouvernants et les chefs d’entreprise puissent prendre des décisions rationnelles. Doté d’une mission d’étude, il représente égaleront la France hors des frontières et contribue aux travaux statistiques mondiaux. la réussite de cette double mission (d’études économiques et de producteur de données) suppose d’abord que les responsables politiques et économiques de la Nation accordent aux fonctionnaires-statisticiens des moyens financiers et des soutiens moraux suffisante. Elle exige ensuite qu’ils puissent obtenir les renseignements qu’ils réclament aux administrations et aux producteurs. Or, à quelques exceptions près, ni la classe politique ni les chefs d’entreprise n’ont conscience de la nécessité de la statistique. Du fait de l’insuffisance des crédits de l’INSEE et des réticences ou de l’indifférence de l’opinion à son égard, les structures de l’économie nationale restent en partie méconnues en 1961 tandis que l’observation des pays étrangère n’est prise en charge par aucune administration centrale. Si la qualité scientifique des travaux des statisticiens français est largement reconnue à l’étranger, cet atout n’est pas valorisé par la France. Les entreprises nationales affrontent leurs concurrents en les méconnaissant largement.
Une exemple de partenariat industriel franco-allemand au sein d’une entreprise internationale : Norsk Hydro, 1905-1945
Authors: De Lafargue Bertrand
Published: August 2017

La société Norsk Hydro, fondée à Christiania (Oslo) en 1905, est, de 1907 à 1911, puis de 1927 à la Deuxième Guerre mondiale, le cadre d’une concurrence franco-allemande. Cet article en résume les principales péripéties et s’attache en particulier à l’analyse de la stratégie de la banque Paribas, principal acteur du côté français. Les intérêts allemands sont essentiellement représentés par la BASF. L’intérêt de cette société internationale d’électrochimie tient beaucoup au caractère de sa production (fertilisants, explosifs, eau lourde) dans le contexte des deux guerres mondiales.
La pénurie d’entrepreneurs : explication du retard espagnol ?
Authors: Tortella Gabriel
Published: August 2017

Le manque d’entrepreneurs dynamiques et audacieux est considéré par les observateurs comme l’un des principaux handicaps de l’industrialisation de l’Espagne au XIX e siècle. Après avoir passé en revue les différents secteurs de cette économie au cours du temps, analysé le rôle des investisseurs et capitaux étrangers, présenté les contraintes naturelles et techniques, l’auteur montre que l’entrepreneur espagnol n’a pas été absent mais insuffisamment nombreux et audacieux. Il pose un certain nombre de problèmes et explore des directions de recherche qui permettront, espère-t-il, de mieux comprendre une croissance qui fut trop lente, mais non un échec.
Multinationale et capitalisme régional : la conquête d’une position dominante sur le marché du blé au Brésil
Authors: Kirschner Ana Maria
Published: August 2017

Depuis 1945 l’industrie agro-alimentaire brésilienne a connu une profonde mutation, se situant parmi les branches les plus dynamiques de l’économie nationale. Dans ce secteur la minoterie enregistre une transformation rapide et s’installe dans tout le pays, y compris dans les régions où le pain n’était pas l’aliment de base. Dans un contexte politique particulier et changeant, allant de l’Estado novo à la démocratie, la dictature militaire puis le retour à la démocratie, deux groupes s’opposent pour la conquête d’une position dominante : Bunge & Born, multinationale du commerce international d’origine allemande, installée depuis un demi-siècle en Argentine, Macêdo, une entreprise nordestine, née très modestement en 1945 et devenue l’un des plus puissants groupes nationaux. L’article analyse la politique de ces deux groupes à partir de leur structure, de leur culture d’entreprise, de leurs liens financiers et politiques.
Quand l’Ouest rencontre l’Est : un industriel français en Europe centrale
Authors: Globokar Tatjana
Published: August 2017

Renault, coopérant avec une usine en Slovénie depuis les années 1970, s’installe définitivement à partir de 1990 afin de faire de cette usine une de ses principales unités produisant pour les marchés occidentaux. La technologie, l’organisation et les méthodes de travail sont entièrement importées de France, voire du Japon. Comment ces changements ont-ils été acceptés par les Slovènes ? Traditionnellement, ceux-ci gardent une certaine méfiance vis-à-vis des étrangers, ont difficilement confiance dans la technicité française. Ils pratiquent au travail un mode de gestion bien différent de celui des Français. Une recherche sociologique menée dans l’usine Revoz a permis de détecter les caractéristiques culturelles qui étaient proches des exigences de l’exemple japonais. La méthode amène la qualité de Revoz au premier rang des usines Renault.
Le siècle de la grande entreprise ?
Authors: Saussois Jean-Michel
Published: August 2017

Cet article est une introduction à ce numéro spécial qui rend compte d’une journée organisée par l’ANVIE le 20 septembre 1994 à l’Ecole supérieure de commerce de Paris (ESCP). Alfred Chandler fut l’intervenant principal de cette conférence consacrée au futur de la grande entreprise industrielle multidivisionnelle. L’auteur soulève deux questions théoriques. La première est celle du choix de l’unité d’analyse permettant de comprendre le capitalisme managérial (firme ou coûts de transaction ?). Le deuxième concerne la prise en compte des capacités organisationnelles et des capacités d’apprentissage lors de l’évaluation de la compétitivité de la firme dans une industrie spécifique. L’auteur conclue sur les transformations de la pratique managériale et les conséquences qui en découlent sur la formation des futurs managers.
La nature adaptive et transitoire des formes d’organisation des firmes
Authors: Gaffard Jean-Luc
Published: August 2017

Selon l’auteur, la question n’est pas de savoir quelles sont les formes optimales d’organisation mais comment celles-ci s’adaptent et selon quel processus. Ce changement est un processus d’acquisition d’information qui prend du temps. L’information étant toujours incomplète, la question cruciale est celle de la coordination entre le délai de gestation des investissements et le délai de transmission de l’information. Ce changement dépend de la capacité de décomposabilité des firmes, qui leur permet de s’adapter à un environnement mouvant. En bref, les formes d’organisation des firmes sont transitoires et les conditions du processus de changement nécessairement singulières.