Healthcare costs and savings associated with increased dairy consumption in the United States
Authors: Scrafford Carolyn , Schmier Jordana K , Murphy Mary M , Barraj Leila M 
Published: November 2023

The vast majority of US adults consume less than the 3 cup‐equivalents (c‐eq) of dairy servings daily recommended in the Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGA). Numerous studies have examined dose‐response relationships between dairy consumption and chronic disease risk. Using these data, this study quantified the annual net impact on health care costs assuming adults increase dairy consumption to meet the DGA recommendation.

Recent, high quality meta‐analyses of prospective cohort studies of health outcomes associated positively or negatively with increased dairy consumption were identified in the literature. Nationally representative annual direct and indirect costs associated with each outcome were identified in the literature and inflated to 2016 dollars. The 2011–12 What We Eat in America data provided estimates of current dairy consumption among US adults. Summary relative risk estimates quantifying the association between increased dairy consumption and health outcomes from the meta‐analyses were combined with the increase in consumption required to meet the dairy recommendation and the resulting change in risk was used to estimate the impact on costs. Total annual costs were reduced proportionally to reflect the change in risk of each health outcome. The primary analysis focused on outcomes in the meta‐analyses with statistically significant associations. Secondary analyses included outcomes that show consistent associations but do not reach statistical significance. When risk estimates associated with increased consumption by dairy type were available (i.e., high fat, low fat, milk, cheese, and yogurt), heath care costs associated with changes in consumption of each dairy type to meet the recommendation were estimated.

Significant protective associations between dairy consumption (total or type‐specific) and coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, hypertension (HT), and type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) were identified in the literature. Current total dairy consumption among US adults was 1.63 c‐eq/day, requiring an increase of 1.37 c‐eq/day to meet the 3 c‐eq recommendation. In the primary analysis, $8.9 billion (B) in cost savings ($6.4B direct; $2.5 indirect) was associated with this increase in total dairy consumption. Savings were based on a 3.4% reduction in risk of both HT ($1.8B) and T2D ($7.1B). When all outcomes were included in the secondary analyses, cost savings were estimated to be $17.5B for total dairy. Increased consumption of low fat dairy was associated with reduced risk of CHD, stroke, and HT resulting in projected savings of $12.8B while high fat dairy consumption was limited to stroke risk reduction, yielding savings of $1.6B. Costs associated with the hypothetical increased consumption of individual dairy products also showed significant savings. Notably, an increase of 1.37 c‐eq in cheese consumption resulted in an estimated $27.5B savings, largely from a strong protective association with CHD risk (11.5% reduction; $26.4B).

While limited by the quality and quantity of available data, this model is based on recent literature and improves upon previous estimates. Findings from this study suggest that the impact of increasing per capita dairy consumption among adults to meet DGA recommendations could reduce healthcare costs in the US, with billions of dollars in potential savings.

Support or Funding Information

National Dairy Council