Trends in incidence, prevalence, and survival of breast cancer in the United Kingdom from 2000 to 2021
Authors: Barclay Nicola L. , Burn Edward , Delmestri Antonella , Duarte-Salles Talita , Golozar Asieh , Man Wai Yi , Tan Eng Hooi , Tietzova Ilona ,   OPTIMA Consortium, N’Dow James , Witjes Wim , Smith Emma Jane , Bezuidenhout Carla , Collen Sarah , Plass Karin , Blum Torsten Gerriet , Borkowetz Angelika , Willemse Peter-Paul , Cornford Philip , Dabestani Saeed , Schlief Maurice , Rivas Juan Gómez , Bjartell Anders , Roobol Monique , Beyer Katharina , Venderbos Lionne , Remmers Sebastiaan , Nieboer Daan , Boomsma Raoul , De Meulder Bertrand , Auffray Charles , Taibi Nesrine , Hijazy Ayman , Saporta Albert , Pellet Johann , Omar Imran , Anderson Lesley , MacLennan Steven , MacLennan Sara , Speirs Valerie , Zibaite Solveiga , Boyle Moragh , Murray Charlotte , Brown Dianne , McDonald Demi , Metspalu Andres , Vilo Jaak , Kolde Raivo , Reisberg Sulev , Sügis Elena , Oja Marek , Objartel Telver , Briganti Alberto , Gandaglia Giorgio , Faticoni Martina , Matteuzzi Greta , Chelala Claude , Jones Louise , Abdollahyan Maryam , Gadaleta Emanuela , Juckeland Guido , Bussmann Michael , Kotik Daniel , Yakimovich Artur , Bauer Torsten , Kollmeier Jens , Werchan Jessica , Blum Torsten , Graebig-Rancourt Rebecca , Sjöblom Tobias , Larsson Chatarina , Nordmark Arvid Widenlou , Prieto-Alhambra Daniel , Khalid Sara , Burn Edward , Delmestri Antonella , Mafi Mahkameh , Newby Danielle , Tan Cheryl , Forgó Nikolaus , Napieralski Antoni , Wimmer Martina , Haimbuchner Katharina , Kaltenbrunner Saskia , Hartl Katja , Guliaeva Kseniia , Curigliano Giuseppe , Criscitiello Carmen , Morganti Stefania , Corti Chiara , Zotto Elena Dal , Harbeck Nadia , Koch Julian , Navani Neal , Janes Sam , Bhamani Amyn , Lejeune Stephane , Campone Mario , Frenel Jean-Sebastien , Joubel Kevin , Bocquet François , Berneur Camille , Laloue Marion , Dutot Malvina , Jacob Ludovic , Macle Delphine , Thauvin Stéphanie , Seguin Fanny , Le Manach Catherine , Lambin Philippe , Ankolekar Anshu , Duarte-Salles Talita , Perez Laura , Vaccaro Valérie , Tonia Thomy , Genton Céline , van Geffen Wouter , Tietzova Ilona , Frille Armin , Fallet Vincent , Costantini Adrien , Wesselmann Simone , Kowalski Christoph , Sibert Nora Tabea , Griesshammer Ellen , Powell Pippa , Williams Clare , van Dorp Sigrid , Honing Nadia , Téllez Javier , Garrido Sandra , Galán Roberto , Villoria Ruben , Fernández Inmaculada Perea , de Arenosa Barbeito Paloma López , Borrull Enric Bousoño , Giménez Laura Tur , Hernandez Soralys , Fuente Pablo Gonzalez , García Juan Miguel Auñón , González José Carlos Barrios , Galban Alvaro Morandeira , Kremer Andreas , Quaranta Maria , La Ferla Sebastiano , Marc Loic , Christian Nils , Bauer Christian , Pina Mariana , Auweter Sigrid , Reichwald Julia , Bonsen-Thomas Corinna Zur , Tschetsch Larissa , Pinto Francisco , Lesuffleur Samuel , Blottière Matthieu , Duflot Louise , Vallas David , Chaudé Pierre-Olivier , Baumier Marie , Cremonini Daniele , Torremante Patrizia , Fromm Florian , von Scharfenberg Verena , Rosenits Karin , Azevedo Nuno , Hartig Marcel , Kantz Waltraud , Kube Frederic , Matthews Amanda , Arondekar Bhakti , Gori Bruno , Krüger Hagen , Ilinares Julia , Wilner Keith , Serfass Lucile , McRoy Lynn , Miller Robert , Bauer Simon , Simon Sofia , Papanastasiou Georgios , Godbold Karen , Cahill Edwina , Langhammer Stefan , Adams Anne , Boie Sebastian , Reis Florian , Axelsson Susan Evans , Butler-Ransohoff John-Edward , Meyer Imke , Saatci Selmin Ulusu , Kurki Samu , Ostojic Helene , Majdi Abdelali , Villalba Santiago , Jasti Sai , Wolny Adrian , Schneider Lisa , Rousset Adrian , Cleuren Ivo , Sylvan Sandra Eketorp , Paintin Ellie , Pokrzepa Monika , Pourbaix Nicolas , Lorber Carolin , Thomas Marlene , Morris Stefanie , Mouta Joao , von Meyenn Martina , Shivhare Mahesh , Metcalfe Thomas , Andre Camille , Baeumen Tobias Schulte in den , Hannon Jason , Hochberg Alan Mark , Sukumaran Kartick , Shen Jie , Katta Nareen , Xu Yilin , Turner Sean , Ossyra John , Dellamonica David , Moses Heather , Zhang Yiduo , Dufour Christophe , Simon Marcus , Campos Maria Teresa , Naqvi Hassan , Ceder Jens , Alekseeva Olga , Mueller Burkhard , Flosdorf Tobias , Koch Ruben , Goette Anastasia , Hedström Gustaf , Edqvist Per-Henrik , Prieto-Alhambra Daniel , Newby Danielle 
Published: August 2024

Breast cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer in females globally. However, we know relatively little about trends in males. This study describes United Kingdom (UK) secular trends in breast cancer from 2000 to 2021 for both sexes. We describe a population-based cohort study using UK primary care Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) GOLD and Aurum databases. There were 5,848,436 eligible females and 5,539,681 males aged 18+ years, with ≥ one year of prior data availability in the study period. We estimated crude breast cancer incidence rates (IR), prevalence and survival probability at one-, five- and 10-years after diagnosis using the Kaplan–Meier method. Analyses were further stratified by age. Crude IR of breast cancer from 2000 to 2021 was 194.4 per 100,000 person-years for females and 1.16 for males. Crude prevalence in 2021 was 2.1% for females and 0.009% for males. Both sexes have seen around a 2.5-fold increase in prevalence across time. Incidence increased with age for both sexes, peaking in females aged 60–69 years and males 90+ . There was a drop in incidence for females aged 70–79 years. From 2003–2019, incidence increased > twofold in younger females (aged 18–29: IR 2.12 in 2003 vs. 4.58 in 2018); decreased in females aged 50–69 years; and further declined from 2015 onwards in females aged 70–89 years. Survival probability for females after one-, five-, and ten-years after diagnosis was 95.1%, 80.2%, and 68.4%, and for males 92.9%, 69.0%, and 51.3%. Survival probability at one-year increased by 2.08% points, and survival at five years increased by 5.39% from 2000–2004 to 2015–2019 for females, particularly those aged 50–70 years. For males, there were no clear time-trends for short-term and long-term survival probability. Changes in incidence of breast cancer in females largely reflect the success of screening programmes, as rates rise and fall in synchronicity with ages of eligibility for such programmes. Overall survival from breast cancer for females has improved from 2000 to 2021, again reflecting the success of screening programmes, early diagnosis, and improvements in treatments. Male breast cancer patients have worse survival outcomes compared to females, highlighting the need to develop male-specific diagnosis and treatment strategies to improve long-term survival in line with females.