bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Interpretation of data from the monitoring thermal camera of Stromboli volcano (Aeolian Islands, Italy)
Authors: ZANON V. , NERI M. , PECORA E.
Published: April 2009

Twenty eruptive events from the Northeast Crater of Stromboli volcano recorded by a thermal monitoring camera in early 2004 were analysed in order to understand the eruptive dynamics. Selected events were chosen to be typical of explosions that characterize the steady activity of Stromboli in terms of jet height and duration. Most of the explosions consisted of clast-rich single bursts, originating from the same vent inside the Northeast Crater. Conspicuous ash emission was scarce. Eruptions were preceded by the flashing of a perturbation wave characterized by low temperatures and an average propagation velocity of about 35–100 m s−1. This perturbation was thought to be caused by the bursting of the gas slug at the bottom of the crater and is interpreted as an air wave. This was immediately followed by the expansion of a jet of ‘hot’ gas and particles, at a velocity of 35–75 m s−1. Ejecta coarser than 138 cm appeared ~1.6–2 s after the onset of the explosion, moving at a variable velocity (30–60 m s−1). Eruptive events were either vertical or inclined 7–13° towards the NNW. This inclination is thought to be a consequence either of the morphology of the conduit, following modest rock falls that partially obstructed the uppermost part of the crater, or of the displacement of the internal conduit due to the explosive activity of the volcano. The instability of the summit area is a further possible cause of the deformation of the conduit.
Ownership Structure and Firm Value in China's Privatized Firms: 1991–2001
Authors: Wei Zuobao , Xie Feixue , Zhang Shaorong
Published: April 2009

This paper investigates the relation between ownership structure and firm value across a sample of 5,284 firm years of China's partially privatized former state–owned enterprises (SOE) from 1991–2001. We find that state and institutional shares are significantly negatively related to Tobin's Q, and that significant convex relations exist between Q and state shares, as well as between Q and institutional shares. We also find that foreign ownership is significantly positively related to Tobin's Q. We test for potential endogeneity of ownership, and find that Q and state/foreign ownership are not jointly determined. We also test for time-series, industry, and geo-economic location effects, and find our results to be robust.
The Information Content of Institutional Trades on the London Stock Exchange
Authors: Bozcuk Aslihan , Lasfer M. Ameziane
Published: April 2009

We construct a unique data set that includes all reported institutional block trades on the London Stock Exchange and analyze the market reaction to buy and sell trades. We find that the type of investors behind the trade and the combination of the trade's size and the trader's resulting level of ownership are the major determinants of the information effects and the asymmetry between price impacts of buy and sell trades. In particular, large trades undertaken by fund managers, the most active investors in our sample, have strong information content, while, for the remaining trades, we report limited support for the information and the price impact asymmetry hypotheses. These results hold even after accounting for trade complexity and volatility effects in the regressions.
Pricing European and American Derivatives under a Jump-Diffusion Process: A Bivariate Tree Approach
Authors: Hilliard Jimmy E. , Schwartz Adam
Published: April 2009

We develop a straightforward procedure to price derivatives by a bivariate tree when the underlying process is a jump-diffusion. Probabilities and jump sizes are derived are derived by matching higher order moments or cumulants. We give comparisons with other published results along with convergence proofs and estimates of the order of convergence. The bivariate tree approach is particularly useful for pricing long-term American options and long-term real options because of its robustness and flexibility. We illustrate the pedagogy in an application involving a long-term investment project.
Long-Run Investment Decisions, Operating Performance, and Shareholder Value Creation of Firms Adopting Compensation Plans Based on Economic Profits
Authors: Hogan Chris E. , Lewis Craig M.
Published: April 2009

For firms that adopted economic profit plans between 1983 and 1996, we document changes in investment behavior that lead to improvements in operating performance and growth opportunities relative to these firms' past performance. The improvements, however, are similar to those realized by a set of non-adopting control firms that are selected on the basis of a logistic regression model of adoption choice. We then consider the possibility that some firms are better candidates for economic profit plans than others and classify adopters according to whether they make anticipated or surprising choices based on the adoption choice model. We find that anticipated adopters make changes in investment behavior that reduce invested capital and allow them to become more profitable than a sample of control firms that were expected to adopt but chose to continue using a traditional plan. A similar analysis of surprise adopters does not reveal significant performance differences relative to a sample of anticipated non-adopters. The classification analysis suggests that economic profit plans work best for firms that are expected to adopt such plans based on pre-adoption operating, organizational, financial, and compensation characteristics.
Opening and Closing the Market: Evidence from the London Stock Exchange
Authors: Ellul Andrew , Shin Hyun Song , Tonks Ian
Published: April 2009

We investigate the performance of call markets at the open and close using a unique natural experiment provided by the London Stock Exchange where traders can choose between a call and an off-exchange dealership system. Although the call market dominates dealers in terms of price discovery, it suffers from a high failure rate to open and close trading especially when trading conditions are difficult. The call's trading costs increase with asymmetric information, slow trading, order flow imbalances, and uncertainty. Traders' resort to use of call auctions is negatively correlated with firm size, implying that the call may not be the optimal method for opening and closing trading of medium and small sized stocks.
The Volatility Risk Premium Embedded in Currency Options
Authors: Low Buen Sin , Zhang Shaojun
Published: April 2009

This study employs a non-parametric approach to investigate the volatility risk premium in the over-the-counter currency option market. Using a large database of daily delta-neutral straddle quotes in four major currencies—the British pound, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the Swiss franc—we find that volatility risk is priced in all four currencies across different option maturities. We find that the volatility risk premium is negative, with the premium decreasing in maturity. Finally, we also find evidence that jump risk may be priced in the currency option market.
Equilibrium Pricing in Incomplete Markets
Authors: Bizid Abdelhamid , Jouini Elyès
Published: April 2009

Given the exogenous price process of some assets, we constrain the price process of other assets that are characterized by their final payoffs. We deal with an incomplete market framework in a discrete-time model and assume the existence of the equilibrium. In this setup, we derive restrictions on the state-price deflators. These restrictions do not depend on a particular choice of utility function. We investigate numerically a stochastic volatility model as an example. Our approach leads to an interval of admissible prices that is more robust than the arbitrage pricing interval.
Yield Spreads as Alternative Risk Factors for Size and Book-to-Market
Authors: Hahn Jaehoon , Lee Hangyong
Published: April 2009

This paper investigates whether the size and book-to-market factors of Fama and French (1993) proxy for the risks associated with business cycle fluctuations. We find that changes in default spread (Δdef) and changes in term spread (Δterm) capture the systematic differences in average returns along the size and book-to-market dimensions in the way that the Fama-French factors do: small stock portfolios have higher loadings on Δdef than large stock portfolios, while high book-to-market portfolios have higher loadings on Δterm than low book-to-market portfolios. Furthermore, in the presence of Δdef and Δterm, the Fama-French factors are superfluous in explaining the size and book-to-market effects. The results suggest that the size and value premiums are compensation for higher exposure to the risks related to changing credit market conditions and interest rates proxied by Δdef and Δterm.
The U-Shaped Investment Curve: Theory and Evidence
Authors: Cleary Sean , Povel Paul , Raith Michael
Published: April 2009

We analyze how the availability of internal funds affects a firm's investment. We show that under fairly standard assumptions, the relation is U-shaped: investment increases monotonically with internal funds if they are large but decreases if they are very low. We discuss the tradeoff that generates the U-shape, and argue that models predicting an always increasing relation are based on restrictive assumptions. Using a large data set, we find strong empirical support for our predictions. Our results qualify conventional wisdom about the effects of financial constraints on investment behavior, and help to explain seemingly conflicting findings in the empirical literature.
An International Examination of Affine Term Structure Models and the Expectations Hypothesis
Authors: Tang Huarong , Xia Yihong
Published: April 2009

We examine the yield curve behavior and the relative performance of affine term structure models (ATSMs) using government bond yield data from Canada, Germany, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S. We find strong predictability of forward rates for excess bond returns and reject the expectations hypothesis in all five countries. A three-factor model is sufficient to capture movements in the yield curve of Canada, Japan, the U.K., and the U.S., but may not be enough for Germany. An exhaustive comparison among ATSMs with no more than three factors reveals that the three-factor essential affine model (A1(3)E), with only one factor affecting the volatility of the short rate but with all three factors affecting the price of risk, performs best in all five countries. Simulations provide inconclusive evidence on whether this best affine model can successfully generate the rich yield curve behavior observed in the data.
Time-Series Behavior of Share Repurchases and Dividends
Authors: Lee Bong-Soo , Rui Oliver Meng
Published: April 2009

Given the growth in the importance and popularity of share repurchases, we use an alternative time-series approach to test two hypotheses on the motives for share repurchases and dividends: the flexibility hypothesis and the substitution hypothesis. By investigating both share repurchase and dividend payout policies in the context of a time-series vector autoregression, we account for the dynamic and multi-dimensional nature of the two payout policies. We find that share repurchases are associated with temporary components of earnings, whereas dividends are not, and that share repurchases and dividends are imperfect substitutes.
All Events Induce Variance: Analyzing Abnormal Returns When Effects Vary across Firms
Authors: Harrington Scott E. , Shrider David G.
Published: April 2009

We demonstrate analytically that cross-sectional variation in the effects of events, i.e., in true abnormal returns, necessarily produces event-induced variance increases, biasing popular tests for mean abnormal returns in short-horizon event studies. We show that unexplained cross-sectional variation in true abnormal returns plausibly produces nonproportional heteroskedasticity in cross-sectional regressions, biasing coefficient standard errors for both ordinary and weighted least squares. Simulations highlight the resulting biases, the necessity of using tests robust to cross-sectional variation, and the power of robust tests, including regression-based tests for nonzero mean abnormal returns, which may increase power by conditioning on relevant explanatory variables.
Stock Market Liquidity and the Cost of Issuing Equity
Authors: Butler Alexander W. , Grullon Gustavo , Weston James P.
Published: April 2009

We show that stock market liquidity is an important determinant of the cost of raising external capital. Using a large sample of seasoned equity offerings, we find that, ceteris paribus, investment banks' fees are significantly lower for firms with more liquid stock. We estimate that the difference in the investment banking fee for firms in the most liquid vs. the least liquid quintile is about 101 basis points or 21% of the average investment banking fee in our sample. Our findings suggest that firms can reduce the cost of raising capital by improving the market liquidity of their stock.
Pricing of Seasoned Equity Offers and Earnings Management
Authors: Kim Yongtae , Park Myung Seok
Published: April 2009

This study examines the relations between earnings management by firms offering seasoned equity issues and the pricing of their offers. We hypothesize that seasoned equity offering (SEO) firms that employ aggressive accounting decisions also more aggressively push up their offer prices, thereby leading to a decrease in the degree of underpricing. Consistent with our prediction (the issuer's greed hypothesis), evidence indicates that SEO firms that make opportunistic accounting decisions issue new shares at inflated prices. Our findings remain robust after controlling for other determinants of SEO underpricing and the possible endogeneity of pricing and earnings management.
The Value of Client Access to Analyst Recommendations
Authors: Green T. Clifton
Published: April 2009

Early access to stock recommendations provides brokerage firm clients with incremental investment value. After controlling for transaction costs, purchasing (selling) quickly following upgrades (downgrades) results in average two-day returns of 1.02% (1.50%). Short-term profit opportunities persist for two hours following the pre-market release of new recommendations. The results are robust within sub-periods and a calendar-based strategy produces positive abnormal daily returns of over 10 basis points, or roughly 30% annualized. Recommending firms' market makers shift their quotes accordingly, providing indirect evidence that clients make use of the informational advantage that arises from analysts' opinion changes.
Buy-Side Analysts, Sell-Side Analysts, and Investment Decisions of Money Managers
Authors: Cheng Yingmei , Liu Mark H. , Qian Jun
Published: April 2009

We examine the role of financial analysts in forming institutional investors' investment decisions. In our model, a fund manager invests in a stock based on the optimal weighting of reports created by a biased sell-side analyst and an unbiased buy-side analyst. The manager puts a higher weight on the buy-side analyst's report when the quality of the buyside analyst's information relative to that of the sell-side analyst increases, or when the sell-side analyst's degree of bias or uncertainty about the bias increases. Utilizing a unique dataset of U.S. equity funds, we find evidence supporting our model predictions on how fund managers weigh buy-side research relative to sell-side and independent research.
The Cross Section of Analyst Recommendations
Authors: Sorescu Sorin , Subrahmanyam Avanidhar
Published: April 2009

We analyze the price reaction to analysts' revisions by testing the Griffin and Tversky (1992) hypothesis that agents place emphasis on the strength of the signal (the dramatic nature of the event) and may de-emphasize the weight (the ability of the analyst making the recommendation). Two attributes, namely, years of experience and the reputation of the analysts' brokerage houses form proxies for analyst ability (or weight) that we validate by documenting that revisions by high ability analysts outperform those by low ability ones. We find evidence of return persistence following small (low strength) revisions by high ability analysts and the opposite return pattern following large (high strength) revisions of low ability analysts, consistent with the arguments of Griffin and Tversky (1992). Our study provides an empirical link between evidence on individual decision making and stock market returns, and also helps promote an understanding of the analyst industry as well as its interaction with the investing population.
Are Analyst Recommendations Biased? Evidence from Corporate Bankruptcies
Authors: Clarke Jonathan , Ferris Stephen P. , Jayaraman Narayanan , Lee Jinsoo
Published: April 2009

We test whether a bias exists in analyst recommendations for firms that file for bankruptcy during 1995–2001. We fail to find overoptimism in analyst recommendations, including those of affiliated analysts. Our multivariate analysis of the market reaction to changes in analyst recommendations indicates that prior affiliation exerts no impact on either returns or trading volume. We find that the market does not view recommendation upgrades by affiliated analysts as biased since there is no price reversal following these recommendation changes. Overall, our results suggest that recently passed legislation to reduce analysts' conflicts of interest might be an overreaction.
Does Emerging Market Exchange Risk Affect Global Equity Prices?
Authors: Carrieri Francesca , Errunza Vihang , Majerbi Basma
Published: April 2009

This paper conducts empirical tests in a conditional setting for 10 developed and 12 emerging markets to determine whether emerging market currency risk is priced and if it spills over into developed market assets. Our empirical model is based on real exchange rate measures and it allows currency risk to compete with broader economic and political risks. We find that emerging market currency risk is priced separately from other local risk factors and that it represents a significant component of equity returns in both developed and emerging markets. We also find that the spillover impact is heightened during emerging market crisis episodes and affects the expected compensation for global risks.
Mimicking Portfolios with Conditioning Information
Authors: Ferson Wayne , Siegel Andrew F. , Xu Pisun (Tracy)
Published: April 2009

Mimicking portfolios have long been useful in asset pricing research. In most empirical applications, the portfolio weights are assumed to be fixed over time, while in theory they may be functions of the economic state. This paper derives and characterizes mimicking portfolios in the presence of predetermined state variables, or conditioning information. The results generalize and integrate multifactor minimum variance efficiency (Fama (1996)) with conditional and unconditional mean-variance efficiency (Hansen and Richard (1987), Ferson and Siegel (2001)). Empirical examples illustrate the potential importance of time-varying mimicking portfolio weights and highlight challenges in their application.
Mean Reversion in G-10 Nominal Exchange Rates
Authors: Sweeney Richard J.
Published: April 2009

According to conventional wisdom, industrial country floating exchange rates contain unit roots. SUR tests on panels of monthly Group of Ten (G-10) log nominal rates reject the null of unit roots for various samples over the current float with significance levels from 0.5% to 15%. On average, in out-of-sample forecasts mean reversion models beat random walks significantly in some forecast periods. For monthly data, the range of expected USD-DEM appreciation rates exceeds 15% per year in the mean reversion model. Mean reversion places strong restrictions on international models: over the sample period, the G-10 had to run monetary policies consistent with stable long-run nominal rates.
Leasing and Debt Financing: Substitutes or Complements?
Authors: Yan An
Published: April 2009

Traditional finance theories typically treat leases and debt as substitutes. However, the empirical findings on the relation between leases and debt are mixed. This paper reinvestigates this relation. I present a model to incorporate different theories on the substitutability and complementarity between leases and debt, and I test the model implications empirically in a GMM framework that simultaneously controls for endogeneity problems and firms' fixed effects. The findings suggest that leases and debt are substitutes instead of complements. I also investigate the variation in the substitutability between leases and debt, and find that in those firms with more growth options or larger marginal tax rates, or in those firms paying no dividends, the substitutability is more pronounced, i.e., the cost of new debt increases to a larger degree with extra leases.
Financial Development and the Cash Flow Sensitivity of Cash
Authors: Khurana Inder K. , Martin Xiumin , Pereira Raynolde
Published: April 2009

Prior research posits that market imperfections and the lack of institutions that protect investor interests create a divergence between the cost of internal and external funds, thereby constraining firms' ability to fund investment projects through external financing. Financial constraints force firms to manage their cash flows to finance potentially profitable projects. A related stream of research documents that financial constraints due to costly external financing are more pronounced in underdeveloped financial markets. We examine the influence of financial development on the demand for liquidity by focusing on how financial development affects the sensitivity of firms' cash holdings to their cash flows. Using firm-level data for 35 countries covering about 12,782 firms for the years 1994–2002, we find the sensitivity of cash holdings to cash flows decreases with financial development. We also consider additional implications of firms' cash flow sensitivity of cash with respect to firm size and business cycles. Overall, we provide new cross-country evidence of the role of financial development on financial constraints.
Arbitrage with Fixed Costs and Interest Rate Models
Authors: Jouini Elyès , Napp Clotilde
Published: April 2009

We study securities market models with fixed costs. We first characterize the absence of arbitrage opportunities and provide fair pricing rules. We then apply these results to extend some popular interest rate and option pricing models that present arbitrage opportunities in the absence of fixed costs. In particular, we prove that the quite striking result obtained by Dybvig, Ingersoll, and Ross (1996), which asserts that under the assumption of absence of arbitrage long zero-coupon rates can never fall, is no longer true in models with fixed costs, even arbitrarily small fixed costs. For instance, models in which the long-term rate follows a diffusion process are arbitrage-free in the presence of fixed costs (including arbitrarily small fixed costs). We also rationalize models with partially absorbing or reflecting barriers on the price processes. We propose a version of the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985) model which, consistent with Longstaff (1992), produces yield curves with realistic humps, but does not assume an absorbing barrier for the short-term rate. This is made possible by the presence of (even arbitrarily small) fixed costs.
Tick Size and Institutional Trading Costs: Evidence from Mutual Funds
Authors: Bollen Nicolas P. B. , Busse Jeffrey A.
Published: April 2009

This paper measures changes in mutual fund trading costs following two reductions in the tick size of U.S. equity markets: the switch from eighths to sixteenths and the subsequent switch to decimals. We estimate trading costs by comparing a mutual fund's daily returns to the daily returns of a synthetic benchmark portfolio that matches the fund's holdings but has zero trading costs by construction. We find that the average change in trading costs of actively managed funds was positive following both reductions in tick size with a larger and statistically significant increase following decimalization. In contrast, index fund trading costs were unaffected.
Do Behavioral Biases Vary across Individuals? Evidence from Individual Level 401(k) Data
Authors: Agnew Julie R.
Published: April 2009

This paper investigates whether some individuals are prone to behavioral biases in their 401(k) investments. Using demographic data and allocation information for over 73,000 employees, I examine two allocation biases and a participation bias. The findings suggest that higher salaried employees tend to make significantly better choices. Participants who earn $100, 000 hold 12. 7% less in company stock, are 3% less likely to follow the framing 1/nheuristic, and are 37.7% more likely to participate than those earning $46, 000. Women make better choices in two of the three cases and I find evidence of mental accounting.
Control Transfers, Privatization, and Corporate Performance: Efficiency Gains in China's Listed Companies
Authors: Chen Gongmeng , Firth Michael , Xin Yu , Xu Liping
Published: April 2009

We investigate performance effects for China's listed firms when there is a change in the controlling shareholder. These changes include ownership transfers from one state entity to another state entity and from a state entity to a private entity. We find positive performance effects when control is passed to a private entity. In contrast, when the transfer is made to another branch of the state, there is little change in performance. The stock market responds positively to a change in control, with the largest effect observed for private transfers. Our results suggest the Chinese government should continue to sell down its share ownership in listed firms as the transfer of control to private owners enhances corporate profitability and efficiency. Moreover, to help ownership reform, China should encourage an active market for corporate control.
Liquidity in the Futures Pits: Inferring Market Dynamics from Incomplete Data
Authors: Hasbrouck Joel
Published: April 2009

Motivated by economic models of sequential trade, empirical analyses of market dynamics frequently estimate liquidity as the coefficient of signed order flow in a price change regression. This paper implements such an analysis for futures transaction data from pit trading. To deal with the absence of timely bid and ask quotes (which are used to sign trades in most equity market studies), this paper proposes new techniques based on Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation. The model is estimated for four representative Chicago Mercantile Exchange contracts. The highest liquidity (lowest order flow coefficient) is found for the S&P 500 index. Liquidity for the Euro and U.K. £ contracts is somewhat lower. The pork belly contract exhibits the least liquidity.
Weather, Stock Returns, and the Impact of Localized Trading Behavior
Authors: Loughran Tim , Schultz Paul
Published: April 2009

We document by several methods that trading in Nasdaq stocks is localized, but find little evidence that cloudy weather in the city in which a company is based affects its returns. The first evidence of localized trading is that the time zone of a company's headquarters affects intraday trading patterns in its stock. Second, firms in blizzard-struck cities see a dramatic trading volume drop compared to firms in other cities. Third, the Yom Kippur holiday dampens trading volume in companies located in cities with high Jewish populations. Despite the strong evidence of localized trading, cloudy conditions near the firm's headquarters do not provide profitable trading opportunities.
Price Dynamics in the Regular and E-Mini Futures Markets
Authors: Kurov Alexander , Lasser Dennis J.
Published: April 2009

This paper examines the price dynamics in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 index futures contracts. By utilizing transactions data with attached trader type identification codes, we are able to analyze price dynamics for trades initiated by exchange locals and off-exchange customers. The empirical results show that price discovery appears to be initiated in the E-mini index futures contracts and that trades initiated by exchange locals seem to be more informative than those initiated by off-exchange traders. Furthermore, results show that exchange locals appear to make informed trades on the E-mini contracts around large trades that occur on the open outcry floor. We maintain that the exchange locals' ability to observe pit dynamics may contribute toward explaining the price leadership of the Emini contracts. Overall, the results are consistent with the notion that exchange locals are informed traders who derive their informational advantage from the proximity to order flow.
Opportunity Cost of Capital for Venture Capital Investors and Entrepreneurs
Authors: Kerins Frank , Smith Janet Kiholm , Smith Richard
Published: April 2009

We use a database of recent high tech IPOs to estimate opportunity cost of capital for venture capital investors and entrepreneurs. Entrepreneurs face the risk-return tradeoff of the CAPM as the opportunity cost of holding a portfolio that necessarily is underdiversified. For early stage firms, we estimate the effects of underdiversification, industry, and financial maturity on opportunity cost. Assuming a one-year holding period, the entrepreneur's opportunity cost generally is two to four times as high as that of a well-diversified investor. With a 4.0% risk-free rate and 6.0% market risk premium, for the sample average, we estimate the cost of capital of a well-diversified investor to be 11.4%, which equates to 16.7% before the management fees and carried interest of a typical venture capital fund. For an entrepreneur with 25% of total wealth invested in the venture, our corresponding estimate of cost of capital is 40.0%.
Abnormal Returns from the Common Stock Investments of the U.S. Senate
Authors: Ziobrowski Alan J. , Cheng Ping , Boyd James W. , Ziobrowski Brigitte J.
Published: April 2009

The actions of the federal government can have a profound impact on financial markets. As prominent participants in the government decision making process, U.S. Senators are likely to have knowledge of forthcoming government actions before the information becomes public. This could provide them with an informational advantage over other investors. We test for abnormal returns from the common stock investments of members of the U.S. Senate during the period 1993–1998. We document that a portfolio that mimics the purchases of U.S. Senators beats the market by 85 basis points per month, while a portfolio that mimics the sales of Senators lags the market by 12 basis points per month. The large difference in the returns of stocks bought and sold (nearly one percentage point per month) is economically large and reliably positive.
Capital Investments and Stock Returns
Authors: Titman Sheridan , Wei K. C. John , Xie Feixue
Published: April 2009

Firms that substantially increase capital investments subsequently achieve negative benchmark-adjusted returns. The negative abnormal capital investment/return relation is shown to be stronger for firms that have greater investment discretion, i.e., firms with higher cash flows and lower debt ratios, and is shown to be significant only in time periods when hostile takeovers were less prevalent. These observations are consistent with the hypothesis that investors tend to underreact to the empire building implications of increased investment expenditures. Although firms that increase capital investments tend to have high past returns and often issue equity, the negative abnormal capital investment/return relation is independent of the previously documented long-term return reversal and secondary equity issue anomalies.
The Allocation and Monitoring Role of Capital Markets: Theory and International Evidence
Authors: Tadesse Solomon
Published: April 2009

Capital markets perform two distinct functions: provision of capital and facilitation of good governance through information production and monitoring. I argue that the governance function has more impact on the efficiency with which resources are utilized within the firm. Based on industry-level data across 38 countries, I present evidence suggesting a positive relation between market-based governance and improvements in industry efficiency. The measures of governance are also positively correlated with productivity improvements and growth in real output. Furthermore, while governance affects efficiency, the capital provision services induce technological change. The evidence underscores the role of capital markets as a conduit of socially valuable governance services as distinct from capital provision.
Managerial Entrenchment and Payout Policy
Authors: Hu Aidong , Kumar Praveen
Published: April 2009

Building on the managerial entrenchment literature, we develop and test a novel perspective
on payout policy that integrates the influence of internal governance mechanisms, investment opportunities, management compensation, and monitoring by large shareholders. Our study incorporates both dividend payments and share repurchases, and examines the determinants of the likelihood and the level of payouts. Our model performs well in both in-sample and out-of-sample predictions on a sample of 2,081 firms during 1992–2000. We find that both the likelihood and the level of payouts are significantly and positively (negatively) related to factors that increase (decrease) executive entrenchment levels, even when controlling for size, leverage, and the proportion of tangible to total assets. We identify factors that significantly affect the likelihood but not the level of payouts (or vice versa), and show that entrenchment has an asymmetric influence on dividend vs. shares repurchase policy.
Stock Market Liquidity and Firm Dividend Policy
Authors: Banerjee Suman , Gatchev Vladimir A. , Spindt Paul A.
Published: April 2009

We provide evidence of a link between firm dividend policy and stock market liquidity. In the cross section, owners of less (more) liquid common stock are more (less) likely to receive cash dividends. Predictions of the proportion of dividend payers based on 1963–1977 cross-sectional estimates account for most of the declining propensity of firms to pay dividends as documented by Fama and French (2001). Furthermore, historic liquidity is an important determinant of dividend initiations and omissions. Finally, we show that sensitivity of firm value to aggregate liquidity declines after dividend initiations, suggesting that investors view stock market liquidity and dividends as substitutes.
Why Do Firms Go Dark?
Authors: Marosi András , Massoud Nadia
Published: April 2009

In recent years, a number of firms and banks have decided to “go dark,” i.e., deregister with the Securities and Exchange Commission and delist from the major exchanges despite having a large number of outside shareholders. This paper seeks to answer two important questions: Why do firms choose to go dark? What are the consequences for shareholders? We find that firms with fewer valuable growth opportunities, greater insider ownership, lower institutional ownership, higher leverage, and lower market momentum are more likely to go dark. Furthermore, the cost of regulatory compliance is a driving force behind the going dark phenomenon.
Incentive Contracts and Hedge Fund Management
Authors: Hodder James E. , Jackwerth Jens Carsten
Published: April 2009

We investigate incentive effects of a typical hedge fund contract for a manager with power utility. With a one-year horizon, the manager displays risk taking that varies dramatically with fund value. We extend the model to multiple yearly evaluation periods and find that the manager's risk taking is rapidly moderated if the fund performs reasonably well. The most realistic approach to modeling fund closure uses an endogenous shutdown barrier where the manager optimally chooses to shut down. The manager increases risk taking as fund value approaches that barrier, and this boundary behavior persists strongly with multiyear horizons.
Forecasting Currency Excess Returns: Can the Forward Bias Be Exploited?
Authors: Villanueva O. Miguel
Published: April 2009

The forward bias anomaly implies that currency excess returns are predictable by the forward premium. Yet, recent studies suggest that statistical inference problems may spuriously account for this predictability. This article demonstrates that while currency excess returns are not predictable out of sample using a standard mean square forecast error criterion, the forward premium nonetheless has directional predictability. This directional forecasting accuracy translates into statistically significant profits from trading on the forward bias anomaly.
The Effect of Shareholder Taxes on Corporate Payout Choice
Authors: Moser William J.
Published: April 2009

abstract

This study investigates whether the difference in individual shareholder tax rates between dividend income and capital gain (the dividend tax penalty) affects a firm's choice between distributing funds to shareholders through dividends or share repurchases. The results of this study suggest that, in periods in which the dividend tax penalty increases, firms are more likely to distribute funds to shareholders through share repurchases as opposed to dividends. The results also indicate that the relation between the dividend tax penalty and corporate payout choice is affected by the types of shareholders who own stock in the firm. As tax-disfavored institutional ownership increases and the dividend tax penalty increases, firms are more likely to repurchase shares as opposed to distributing dividends. In contrast, as tax-favored institutional ownership increases and the dividend tax penalty increases, firms are less likely to repurchase shares as opposed to distributing dividends. As senior managerial share ownership increases and the dividend tax penalty increases, firms are more likely to make distributions to shareholders in the form of share repurchases.
Reassessing the Impact of Option Introductions on Market Quality: A Less Restrictive Test for Event-Date Effects
Authors: Danielsen Bartley R. , van Ness Bonnie F. , Warr Richard S.
Published: April 2009

Prior research concludes that option introductions improve the average liquidity of the underlying stocks. We develop an improved, generalizable test to assess whether market quality changes occur on or near an event date. Applying this method to option listing events, we conclude that options do not systematically improve the market quality of the underlying security; rather, the market quality of the underlying security improves before the listing decision. Hazard model tests indicate that improving liquidity is a selection criterion in the option listing decision. Moreover, these tests suggest that the size of a stock's bid-ask spread is the single most important option listing determinant.
Are Household Portfolios Efficient? an Analysis Conditional on Housing
Authors: Pelizzon Loriana , Weber Guglielmo
Published: April 2009

Standard tests of portfolio efficiency neglect the existence of illiquid wealth. The most important illiquid asset in household portfolios is housing: if housing stock adjustments are infrequent, optimal portfolios in periods of no adjustment are affected by housing price risk through a hedge term and tests for portfolio efficiency of financial assets must be run conditionally upon housing wealth. We use Italian household portfolio data and time series on financial assets and housing stock returns to assess whether actual portfolios are efficient. We find that housing wealth plays a key role in determining whether portfolios chosen by homeowners are efficient.
Macroeconomic News, Order Flows, and Exchange Rates
Authors: Love Ryan , Payne Richard
Published: April 2009

In textbook models of exchange rate determination, the news contained in public information announcements is directly impounded into prices with there being no role for trading in this process of information assimilation. This paper directly tests this theoretical result using transaction level exchange rate return and trading data and a sample of scheduled macroeconomic announcements. The main result of the paper is that even information that is publicly and simultaneously released to all market participants is partially impounded into prices via the key micro level price determinant—order flow. We quantify the role that order flow plays and find that approximately one third of price-relevant information is incorporated via the trading process.
Sharpe Ratios and Alphas in Continuous Time
Authors: Nielsen Lars Tyge , Vassalou Maria
Published: April 2009

This paper proposes modified versions of the Sharpe ratio and Jensen's alpha, which are appropriate in a simple continuous-time model. Both are derived from optimal portfolio selection. The modified Sharpe ratio equals the ordinary Sharpe ratio plus half of the volatility of the fund. The modified alpha also differs from the ordinary alpha by a second-moment adjustment. The modified and the ordinary Sharpe ratios may rank funds differently. In particular, if two funds have the same ordinary Sharpe ratio, then the one with the higher volatility will rank higher according to the modified Sharpe ratio. This is justified by the underlying dynamic portfolio theory. Unlike their discrete-time versions, the continuous-time performance measures take into account that it is optimal for investors to change the fractions of their wealth held in the fund vs. the riskless asset over time.
Demographics, Stock Market Flows, and Stock Returns
Authors: Goyal Amit
Published: April 2009

This paper studies the link between population age structure, net outflows (dividends plus repurchases less net issues) from the stock market, and stock market returns in an overlapping generations framework. I find support for the traditional lifecycle models—the outflows from the stock market are positively correlated with the changes in the fraction of old people (65 and over) and negatively correlated with the changes in the fraction of middle-aged people (45 to 64). Changes in population age structure also add significant explanatory power to equity premium regressions. The population structure adds to the predictive power of regressions involving the investment/savings rate for the U.S. economy. Finally, international demographic changes have some power in explaining international capital flows.
Financial Innovation, Market Participation, and Asset Prices
Authors: Calvet Laurent , Gonzalez-Eiras Martín , Sodini Paolo
Published: April 2009

This paper investigates the pricing effects of financial innovation in an economy with endogenous participation and heterogeneous income risks. The introduction of non-redundant assets endogenously modifies the participation set, reduces the covariance between dividends and participants' consumption and thus leads to lower risk premia. In multisector economies, financial innovation spreads across markets through the diversified portfolio of new entrants, and has rich effects on the cross-section of expected returns. The price changes can also lead some investors to leave the markets and give rise to non-degenerate forms of participation turnover. The model is consistent with several features of financial markets over the past few decades: substantial innovation, higher participation, significant turnover in investor composition, improved risk management practices, a slight increase in real interest rates, and a reduction in risk premia.
Initial Public Offerings in Hot and Cold Markets
Authors: Helwege Jean , Liang Nellie
Published: April 2009

The literature offers many explanations for why the IPO market cycles from hot to cold. These include theories in which hot markets represent clusters of IPOs in a new industry, and signaling models that predict that hot markets draw in better quality firms. Others suggest hot market IPOs' stock returns reflect their poor quality. We compare IPOs over cycles during 1975–2000 and find that hot and cold IPO markets do not differ so much in the characteristics of the firms that go public as in the quantity of firms that go public. Both hot and cold IPOs are largely concentrated in the same narrow set of industries and they have few distinctions in profits, age, or growth potential. Our results suggest that hot markets are not driven primarily by changes in adverse selection costs, managerial opportunism, or technological innovations, but more likely reflect greater investor optimism.
Why Do IPO Underwriters Allocate Extra Shares when They Expect to Buy Them Back?
Authors: Zhang Donghang
Published: April 2009

I argue that overallocation is used as a marketing strategy to increase the offer price and aftermarket price of an initial public offering (IPO). I show that, when there is weak demand, it can be optimal for the underwriter to oversell an issue and take a naked short position. The issuing firm benefits from a higher expected offer price. This is in spite of the fact that, in equilibrium, allocating more shares when there is weak demand requires greater underpricing when there is strong demand.
Limited Partnerships and Reputation Formation
Authors: Kallberg Jarl G. , Liu Crocker H. , Srinivasan Anand
Published: April 2009

This paper analyzes the optimal quality decision of a producer in a multi-period setting with reputation effects. Using a unique database of returns on real estate limited partnerships (RELPs), we empirically examine alternative theoretical predictions of optimal producer strategy. In particular, we test whether the producers in our market invest in reputation building by initially selling high quality goods and then lowering quality. Using a variety of statistical tests, we find evidence consistent with reputation building, both in the aggregate and for individual developers.
The Value of the Designated Market Maker
Authors: Venkataraman Kumar , Waisburd Andrew C.
Published: April 2009

The proliferation of electronic limit order books operating without dealers raises questions regarding the need for intermediaries with affirmative obligations to maintain markets. We develop a simple model of dealer participation and test it using a sample of less liquid firms that trade on the Paris Bourse. The results indicate that firms with designated dealers exhibit better market quality, and that younger firms, smaller firms, and less volatile firms choose a designated dealer. Around the announcement of dealer introduction, stocks experience an average cumulative abnormal return of nearly 5% that is positively correlated with improvements in liquidity. Overall, these findings emphasize the potential benefits of designing better market structures, even within electronic limit order books, and suggest that purely endogenous liquidity provision may not be optimal for all securities.
The Role of Underwriter-Investor Relationships in the IPO Process
Authors: Binay Murat M. , Gatchev Vladimir A. , Pirinsky Christo A.
Published: April 2009

We find that in allocating initial public offerings (IPOs), underwriters favor institutions they have previously worked with. Regular investors benefit more than casual investors in IPOs through greater participation in underpriced issues. Relationship participation is more important in the distribution of IPOs with stronger demand, IPOs of less liquid firms, and deals by less reputable underwriters. Overall, our results are consistent with book-building theories of IPOs. Interestingly, for 1999–2000 we find that regular investors receive even more underpriced IPOs relative to previous years while we do not find evidence that they provide additional services in IPOs.