CLIMATIC VARIABILITY AND LIVELIHOOD VULNERABILITY IN KADUNA STATE, NIGERIA
Authors: N. Muhammad, , H.I. Manu, , Bukar, Y. Maina- , Y.R. Abdullahi, 
Published: January 2021

Purpose: This paper focused on livelihood vulnerability induced by climatic variability amongst farming households in Kaduna state, Nigeria.

Methodology: The research used a sample population of 400 using Taro Yamane formula which represents about 0.05% of the population of the three selected local government areas and it purposively targeted farming households heads (FHHH) in one of each of the three eco-climatic zones in the state. Kagarko, BirninGwari and Makarfi local government areas were based on their eco-climatic location and rurality to represent humid, sub-humid and dry sub humid zones of the state respectively. A multi stage sampling technique was further adopted in which farming districts and villages were selected for the administration of 400 structured questionnaires proportionately distributed proportionately to the three local government areas. The Department for International Development (DFID) sustainable livelihoods framework was adopted in the design of the structured questionnaires. Coefficient of Variation (CV %) was deployed to determine the variability of rainfall and temperature of the three eco-climatic zones of the past thirty six years (1981-2016) which was employed into the Micah Hahn’s Livelihood Vulnerability Index model.The results show that Kagarko (humid) had a CV% of 105.43 of rainfall, 9.06 CV% of maximum temperature and CV% of 17.63 in minimum temperature. BirninGwari (sub-humid) had a CV% of 119.64 in rainfall, CV% of 14.17 in maximum temperature and CV% of 15.92 in minimum temperature while Makarfi (dry sub-humid) had a CV% of 124.71 in rainfall, CV%  of 9.72 in maximum temperature and 16.29 CV% in minimum temperature. The livelihood vulnerability index (LVI) of Kagarko was calculated to be 0.35, Makarfi and BirninGwari were calculated to be 0.36 respectively and vulnerability spider diagrams were used to capture and compare results. On a vulnerability scale of 0-1, the three eco-climatic zones were found to be very vulnerable to climatic variability. The paper has proved the applicability of Co-efficient of Variation (CV %) into the LVI model which is a departure from previous users who have consistently deployed Mean Standard Deviation into the model.

Results: This study will serve as a spring board to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) targets on vulnerable communities in Kaduna state. It is discovered that farmers in Makarfi and BirninGwari, even though in different eco-climatic zones of sub-humid and dry sub humid zones respectively, share equal level of livelihood vulnerability index of 0.36 while Kagarko area which is in humid zone, is having 0.35. These indicated that all the areas are within the very vulnerable values on a vulnerability scale of 0-1. The vulnerability levels of the study area can be attributed to weak Natural, Financial and Physical capitals.

Recommendations: The paper recommended Integrated Farmers’ Livelihoods Support Strategy (IFLISS) so as to build the resilience of farming households’ livelihood capitals and reduce vulnerability levels.