Analysis of key threats to European security and the Republic of Moldova
Authors: Ursu V. 
Published: September 2023

In humanitarian law, the terms public order or public security describe the general conditions that must exist for citizens to enjoy their rights and freedoms.

States thus become responsible for the defense of public safety. The Republic of Moldova, like other countries around the world, remains influenced by events outside its borders, especially those that can trigger conflicts. Directly or indirectly, due to a strategic geopolitical positioning, the Republic of Moldova is forced to create mechanisms that are functional and appropriate to the real contexts in order to be able to deal with possible difficulties, which, moreover, continue to leave their mark on the citizens.

In the present study we will refer to the threats, risks and vulnerabilities as they are understood in the controversy of researchers and specialists in security and public order, both on the internal and external (regional and international) dimensions.

Thus, the definitions of the stated concepts do not belong to us, but we completely rely on the definitions of the notions invoked in the previous studies, with strict references.

So, by Threat to security is an action or sequence of events that seriously threatens to degrade the quality of life of the citizens of a state, in a relatively short period of time, or constitutes a threat that cannot be ignored to the freedom of choice of the policy of a government or a private or non-governmental entity within a state [1, page 153].

Risks refer to possible but uncertain events that can cause harm. The impact of the risk depends on the evolving threats, plus the level of vulnerability to those threats, as well as the capacity available to deal with those threats. Plus, the risks affecting national security will be evaluated according to the fields of activity and their level of gravity and probability will be taken into account.

Vulnerabilities are analyzed from a classical point of view. Vulnerability depends on the nature of the state’s situation: either the state of war/conflict, the «apparent» state of peace, or it depends on the objectives/ interests pursued by an actor/disturber in the region. In general, vulnerabilities are processes or phenomena in the internal life of a state (weaknesses), which reduce the ability to react to existing or potential risks or which favor their emergence and development. Specific to the Republic of Moldova, vulnerabilities can be evaluated from an internal and external perspective (depending on where they are generated). For example, the unilateral dependence of the Republic of Moldova on foreign systems in the energy field is a major vulnerability that, in the current security environment, turns into a threat to national security. It can also be a question of vulnerabilities characteristic of weak countries, as well as the emigration of highly qualified specialists and the weakening of the country’s development potential.

Also, the Republic of Moldova can be affected not only by classic threats, such as international terrorism or cross-border organized crime. In this sense, the situation in Transnistria and the involvement of the Russian Federation as a hegemonic force should also be outlined.