MAGA Republicans’ Views of American Democracy and Society and Support for Political Violence: Findings from a Nationwide Population-Representative Survey
Authors: Wintemute Garen , Robinson Sonia , Tomsich Elizabeth A. 
Published: October 2022

Background: Identification of groups that may be at high risk for political violence can support effective prevention and intervention measures. This study’s objectives are to determine whether so-called Make America Great Again (MAGA) Republicans, as defined, are 1) a distinct subset of Republican party affiliates and 2) more likely than others to express support for and willingness to engage in political violence. Design, Setting, Participants: Cross-sectional nationwide survey conducted May 13 to June 2, 2022 of adult members of the Ipsos KnowledgePanel. The analytic sample includes 7,255 respondents for whom party affiliation, 2020 voting information, and opinion on the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election were available. Main Measures and Outcomes: MAGA Republicans are defined as Republicans who voted for Donald Trump in 2020 and agreed strongly or very strongly with the statement that “the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump, and Joe Biden is an illegitimate president.” Outcomes are weighted, population-representative proportions of MAGA Republicans and 3 comparison groups—strong Republicans, other Republicans, and non-Republicans— endorsing an array of beliefs about American democracy and society and expressing support for and willingness to engage in political violence. Results: The analytic sample (n= 7,255) included 1,128 (15.0%) MAGA Republicans, 640 (8.3%) strong Republicans, 1,571 (21.3%) other Republicans, and 3,916 (55.3%) non-Republicans. MAGA Republicans were substantially more likely than others to agree strongly or very strongly that “having a strong leader for America is more important than having a democracy” (MAGA Republicans, 31.0%, 95% CI 28.0%, 34.1%; strong Republicans, 17.8%, 95% CI 14.5%, 21.7%; other Republicans, 17.0%, 95% CI 14.8%, 19.2%; non-Republicans, 15.2%, 95% CI 13.9%, 16.6%) and that “in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States” (MAGA Republicans, 30.3%, 95% CI 27.2%, 33.4%; strong Republicans, 7.5%, 95% CI 5.1%, 9.9%; other Republicans, 10.8%, 95% CI 9.0%, 12.6%; non-Republicans, 11.2%, 95% CI 10.0%, 12.3%). They were far more likely to agree that that “in America, native-born white people are being replaced by immigrants,” and to endorse the central elements of the Q-Anon delusion complex. MAGA Republicans were substantially more likely than others to consider violence usually or always justified to advance 1 or more of 17 specific political objectives (MAGA Republicans, 58.2%, 95% CI 55.0%, 61.4%; strong Republicans, 38.3%, 95% CI 34.2%, 42.4%; other Republicans, 31.5%, 95% CI 28.9%, 34.0%; non-Republicans, 25.1%, 95% CI 23.6%, 26.7%). They were more likely to report that, in a future situation where they considered political violence to be justified, they would be armed (MAGA Republicans, 18.6%, 95% CI 15.9%, 21.2%; strong Republicans, 9.5%, 95% CI 6.6%, 12.4%; other Republicans, 8.1%, 95% CI 6.5%, 9.7%; non-Republicans, 4.7%, 95% CI 3.9%, 5.5%). They were not more willing than others to engage personally in political violence of several types (to damage property, threaten or intimidate a person, injure a person, or kill a person) or against 9 categories of people defined by occupational or social characteristics, and they were not more willing than others to threaten or kill someone with a gun in a situation where they believed political violence was justified.Conclusions and Relevance: As defined, MAGA Republicans are a minority of Republicans and are distinct from other Republicans and non-Republicans on many measures. They are more likely to hold extreme and racist beliefs, to endorse political violence, to see such violence as likely to occur, and to predict that they will be armed under circumstances in which they consider political violence to be justified. They are not more willing to engage personally in political violence.