bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Attitudes towards credit buying among the youth: An exploratory study
Authors: Birkholtz M. , Rousseau G. G.
Published: August 2019

The main objective of the study is to investigate attitudes of young consumers towards credit purchasing behaviour by means of store charge cards. Data were gathered by using an administered questionnaire from a multicultural sample (N=265) of learners and students attending various secondary and tertiary institutions in Port Elizabeth, as well as from observations of young shoppers at various retail outlets in the city. Results indicate that young consumers differ across gender, age, and home language in terms of attitudes towards credit. Findings suggest that there is a lack of knowledge and understanding by the respondents of the consequences of buying on credit, especially accountability for their financial actions. Implications are that education and training in personal money management are crucial for ensuring that marketers do not give rise to up a body of future debtors, stemming from financial illiteracy.
The evaluation of a self-development programme for managers in a corporate pharmacy group
Authors: Pienaar J. , Rothmann S. , Rothmann J. C.
Published: August 2019

Changes that impact on organisations require of managers to accept responsibility for their self-development to remain effective. The aim of this research was to evaluate a self-development programme for managers in a corporate pharmacy group. A two-group true experimental design with pre-, post, and post-post testing was used. A total of 35 managers were randomly divided into an experimental (n = 18) and control group (n = 17). The following measuring instruments were used for the evaluation of the programme: The Personal Orientation Inventory, the Generalised Perceived Self-Efficacy Scale, the COPE-Questionnaire and a knowledge test. The results showed that participants showed higher Synergy and Feeling reflection and greater self-efficacy following the self-development programme.
A new approach to managing community participation and stakeholder negotiation in South African local government
Authors: Van Rooyen Enslin J.
Published: August 2019

Community participation currently forms an important element of the South African government’s policy on integrated development planning in local government. Community participation and stakeholder negotiation involve a process of comprehensive engagement, as divergent opinions, needs and expectations normally exist. It is therefore important to correctly identify legitimate stakeholders, to know the different types of partnerships that form stakeholder units within municipalities, and where final decision-making responsibility and accountability are located in local government affairs. This paper reflects on the need for a culture of community participation and most importantly, stakeholder negotiation to be established and institutionalized to the extent that it will be viewed not as an event but rather a continuous process in local government. This approach defines a new era for public management in South African local government.
Historical analysis of African women workers in South Africa during the period 1900 to 2000
Authors: Lalthapersad Pinky
Published: August 2019

The article is a detailed exposition of the history of the incorporation of African women into paid work in the South African labour market. The interlocking effects of racism, classism and sexism exposed African women to income and job insecurity. Historically, access of African women to the labour market was shaped by the gendered nature of the migrant labour system and by legal measures that restricted women’s entry into urban areas and waged work. When African women were allowed into the formal labour market, they were only allowed to undertake the low-skilled, low-paying, menial jobs, were excluded from union benefits and forced to work under exploitative conditions.
Solving Daniel Bernoulli’s St Petersburg paradox: The paradox which is not and never was
Authors: Vivian Robert W.
Published: August 2019

It has been accepted for over 270 years that the expected monetary value (EMV) of the St Petersburg game is infinite. Accepting this leads to a paradox; no reasonable person is prepared to pay the predicted large sum to play the game but will only pay, comparatively speaking, a very moderate amount. This paradox was ‘solved’ using cardinal utility. This article demonstrates that the EMV of the St Petersburg game is a function of the number of games played and is infinite only when an infinite number of games is played. Generally, the EMV is a very moderate amount, even when a large number of games is played. It is of the same order as people are prepared to offer to play the game. There is thus no paradox. Cardinal utility is not required to explain the behaviour of the reasonable person offering to play the game.
A panel data analysis of crime in South Africa
Authors: Blackmore F. L.E.
Published: August 2019

This study analyses the determinants of crime in South Africa using economic, social and demographic variables. The model is estimated using an unbalanced panel of 1044 observations for 15 crimes across the 9 provinces of South Africa over 8 years. A comprehensive analysis of the crime situation is achieved using this data, since it combines the benefits of macroeconomic time series with microeconomic cross sectional series. The statistical results identify significant effects for the income per capita, drug use, ratio of woman to men, the economically active population, degree of urbanisation, unemployment rate and age structure variables. Only one third of all crimes are sensitive to changes in quantity of expenditure on total protection services. Education and change in gross domestic product variables yielded insignificant results.
The dividends from a revenue neutral tax on coal in South Africa
Authors: De Wet T. J. , Van Heerden J. H.
Published: August 2019

South Africa is endowed with a significant proportion of the worlds coal reserves, which is used relatively cheaply to supply in more than 75 per cent of the country's energy needs. In terms of its per capita South Africa is one of the largest air polluters in the world. Even higher on the list of social preferences in South Africa, however, is the problem of unemployment, which also ranks amongst the highest in the world. In this paper we use a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate fiscal policy scenarios that address both these problems, and try to establish a double dividend, namely a reduction in CO2 levels of pollution as well as a reduction in unemployment levels.
Organisational training perspectives in a changing South Africa
Authors: Struwig F. W. , Smith E. E. , Venter D. J.L.
Published: August 2019

This article focuses on organisational training perspectives within a changing South African context. To achieve the aim of this research project, a literature study, including an Internet-based search, and empirical research were undertaken. During the empirical research, a self-administered questionnaire was sent to 365 training practitioners in order to investigate various training perspectives and its relationship with organisational change. Five null hypotheses are tested to investigate the relationship between training and change variables. The traditional role of training has become obsolete, because of organisational change. Training should be placed at the centre of human resources planning programmes and the strategic plans of the organisation. It is emphasised that actions should be taken to ensure that training programmes affect change and that trainees involved in the change process are effectively managed.
Clinical and epidemiological profile of neuroendocrine tumors: An experience from a regional cancer center from Western India
Authors: Kulkarni Rahul Suhas , Anand Asha S. , Parikh Sonia K. , Panchal Harsha P. , Patel Apurva A. , Mehta Dhruv P. , Patel Priyanka
Published: August 2019

Background: Most of the data on neuroendocrine tumors (NETs) are from the Western literature. Indian studies regarding clinicopathological characteristics and treatment outcomes are lacking. Methods: This is a prospective observational study of all new patients with NETs (except small-cell lung cancer) registered at our tertiary care cancer institute from November 2014 to November 2016. A total of 97 new patients were registered, of which 20 were lost to follow-up before starting any planned treatment. Epidemiological and clinicopathological features of all these 97 patients were studied, and the remaining 77 patients were analyzed for treatment response and survival analysis. Results: The median age at diagnosis was 49 years (20–74 years) with male preponderance (M: F = 1.85:1). The most common primary site of origin was pancreas (34/97 = 35%), followed by unknown primary origin (19%), small intestine (9%), and pulmonary (6%). Of 97 patients, 91 (93.8%) presented with nonfunctional symptoms, 3 (3.1%) had purely functional symptoms, and 3 (3.1%) presented with both functional and nonfunctional symptoms. The most common presenting symptom was abdominal pain (59.7%), followed by jaundice (9.3%), whereas watery diarrhea (83.3%) and flushing (66.7%) were the most common functional symptoms. Sixty-six percent (64/97) of cases were metastatic at presentation. A strong correlation was noted between the primary site of origin and metastatic presentation (P = 0.016). Chemotherapy was the most common primary therapy (40.2%), followed by surgery (28.6%), watchful waiting (15.6%), and somatostatin analogs (11.7%). The median event-free survival was highest for patients undergoing surgery (10 months). Conclusions: The clinicopathological profile of NETs in the Indian population differs from Western countries. Majority of patients present with metastatic disease, thus representing a need for creating awareness among patients and medical fraternity and formulating Indian guidelines for optimized treatment.
Performances discursivas de uma “Bixa Travesty”: sobre corpo, gênero e identidade em Linn da Quebrada
Authors: Silva Danillo Da Conceição Pereira , Santos Emilly Silva dos
Published: August 2019

Neste artigo, temos como objetivo oferecer uma reflexão teórico-analítica acerca das conexões entre corpo, gênero e identidade, a partir de uma visada performativa e queer de linguagem, conforme perspectivas da Linguística Aplicada Indisciplinar. Para tanto, além das discussões teóricas realizadas, analisamos três performances discursivas da artista e ativista social Linn da Quebrada, em entrevista concedida à revista brasileira Cult, em agosto de 2017. Em consequência do percurso empreendido, argumentamos que a desessencialização das referidas concepções se torna fundamental para desestabilizar efeitos de verdade excludentes construídos, tensionados e contestados na/pela linguagem, além de fomentar sua potencialidade na aliança com ativismos sociais e acadêmicos engajados em favor das diferenças identitárias na modernidade recente.
O gênero Caderno de acompanhamento na Pedagogia da Alternância: espaço de diálogo entre família e escola
Authors: Silva Cícero Da , Gonçalves Adair Vieira
Published: August 2019

Neste artigo, objetiva-se analisar como a escrita medeia práticas de letramentos articuladas ao gênero Caderno de acompanhamento, um instrumento didático-pedagógico das unidades educativas que assumem o sistema educativo da Pedagogia da Alternância (PA). Trata-se de uma pesquisa de abordagem qualitativo-interpretativista. Os dados analisados são constituídos por trechos (transcritos) de uma aula registrada na pesquisa e textos de 03 (três) exemplares do gênero Caderno de acompanhamento. O estudo mostra que esse gênero possibilita a comunicação entre a escola e a família no que diz respeito ao acompanhamento e orientação dos estudantes nas sessões do Tempo Escola e do Tempo Comunidade em uma unidade educativa que adota a PA, configurando a realidade das ações e das atividades de linguagem no processo formativo desse contexto social.
Ideologia e construção de identidades em uma audiência de conciliação no PROCON
Authors: Silva Maurício Carlos da , Vieira Amitza Torres
Published: August 2019

O artigo propõe identificar o papel da ideologia na construção de identidades em uma audiência de conciliação no PROCON, a partir de um estudo qualitativo com dados reais de fala. Nesse contexto institucional, a negociação entre as partes, reclamante e reclamado, depende de uma intensa construção discursiva de versões sobre o fato. Considera-se a concepção de ideologia enquanto sentido negociado (BILLIG, 1991; SHI-XU, 2000; THOMPSON, 2011) e a noção de identidade também é tomada como um construto interacional (BUCHOLTZ e HALL, 2004; OCHS, 1993; MOITA LOPES, 2001). Os resultados do estudo mostram que a dimensão ideológica serviu para fornecer status de factualidade a opiniões subjetivas (SHI-XU, 2000), atuando no sentido de orientar a significação do processo de construção e sustentação de identidades dos reclamados como maus profissionais x bons profissionais.
Método na pesquisa psicolinguística sobre leitura: técnicas de coleta de dados
Authors: Souza Ana Cláudia De , Franzen Bruna Alexandra , Schlichting Thais De Souza
Published: August 2019

Em perspectiva Psicolinguística, este artigo visa abordar o método de pesquisa acerca do processamento em leitura, focalizando os instrumentos e as técnicas de coleta de dados de dois estudos de doutorado que investigam a relação entre metalinguagem e leitura e entre processamento anafórico e leitura. Os instrumentos e técnicas selecionados para a condução das pesquisas e aqui descritos são os seguintes: teste de compreensão leitora e julgamento de aceitabilidade, protocolos verbais, leitura automonitorada e diário de campo.
Contribuições da fonética para o estudo da aprendizagem do componente sonoro em L2
Authors: Silveira Rosane
Published: August 2019

Desde meados dos anos 90, as contribuições da fonética para os estudos da fala em segunda língua (L2) têm aumentado exponencialmente. Esse campo de pesquisa sempre foi fortemente influenciado pelas teorias e hipóteses sobre a aprendizagem de L2, mas, a partir dos anos 90, passou a adotar, também, modelos teóricos voltados exclusivamente para o estudo da fala. Neste artigo, buscamos apontar as principais contribuições da fonética nas pesquisas que buscam compreender como se dá a aprendizagem fonética e fonológica em uma L2. Inicialmente, serão destacadas as principais teorias e metodologias que têm informado os estudos da fala em L2 desde os anos 60. Em seguida, essas influências teóricas e metodológicas serão ilustradas com pesquisas produzidas pelo grupo Fonética e Fonologia Aplicadas à Língua Estrangeira (NUPFALLE). Este breve panorama mostra como a interface fonética-fonologia passou a ser fundamental para o desenvolvimento das pesquisas sobre a aprendizagem do componente sonoro da L2.
Competition and Bank Risk the Role of Securitization and Bank Capital
Authors: Altunbas Yener , Marques‐Ibanez David , van Leuvensteijn Michiel , Zhao Tianshu
Published: August 2019

We examine how bank competition in the run-up to the 2007–2009 crisis affects banks’ systemic risk during the crisis. We then investigate whether this effect is influenced by two key bank characteristics: securitization and bank capital. Using a sample of the largest listed banks from 15 countries, we find that greater market power at the bank level and higher competition at the industry level lead to higher realized systemic risk. The results suggest that the use of securitization exacerbates the effects of market power on the systemic dimension of bank risk, while capitalization partially mitigates its impact.
Explaining High Unemployment in ECCU Countries
Authors: James Ronald , Lafeuillee Jemma , Xin Li Mike , Salinas Gonzalo , Savchenko Yevgeniya
Published: August 2019

In recent years, unemployment rates in some ECCU countries have been among the highest globally. This paper evaluates several factors that could explain them, finding that high unit labor costs, in a context of strong unionization, are significantly associated with high structural unemployment, while the global crisis added a cyclical component. Our analysis also suggests that high-paid jobs in the public and tourism sectors, which have been growing considerably in recent decades, could have increased the reservation wage and lowered labor force participation. We find no indication that high structural unemployment is related to the phase out of EU preferences on bananas/sugar exports or to a skills mismatch. As expected, unemployment has been substantially, but only temporarily fueled by large natural disasters.
Inflation Co-Movement in Emerging and Developing Asia
Authors: Blagrave Patrick
Published: August 2019

Co-movement (synchronicity) in inflation rates among a set of 13 emerging and developing countries in Asia is shown to be strongest for the food component, partly due to common rainfall shocks—a result which the paper terms the ‘monsoon effect.’ Economies with higher trade integration and co-movement in nominal effective exchange rates also experience greater food-inflation co-movement. By contrast, cross-country co-movement in core inflation is weak and the aforementioned determinants have little explanatory power, suggesting a prominent role for idiosyncratic domestic factors in driving core inflation. In the context of the growing literature on the globalization of inflation, these results suggest that common weather patterns are partly responsible for any role played by a so-called ‘global factor’ among inflation rates in emerging and developing economies, in Asia at least.
Euro Area Policies
Authors:   International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Published: August 2019

After a sharp slowdown starting in 2018, euro area growth is expected to recover over the course of 2019. However, mounting downside risks from global trade tensions, a no-deal Brexit, and market concerns about countries with high public debt emphasize the precarious nature of the forecast. Even in the absence of a major shock, there is a danger that the area could enter a prolonged period of anemic growth and inflation.
Policies should focus on supporting growth while also reducing vulnerabilities.
Vietnam
Authors:   International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Published: August 2019

Rising trade tensions and volatility in emerging economies were felt in Vietnam in 2018. Nevertheless, the real economy remains resilient, the private sector-led expansion is broad-based, and inflation remains muted. The public finances are being consolidated, bank capital rules strengthened, and capital markets are deepening. Risks are related to geopolitics, trade policy uncertainty and domestic reform implementation. Longer term risks relate to aging, climate change and digitalization.
Photochemical impacts of haze pollution in an urban environment
Authors: Hollaway Michael , Wild Oliver , Yang Ting , Sun Yele , Xu Weiqi , Xie Conghui , Whalley Lisa , Slater Eloise , Heard Dwayne , Liu Dantong
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Rapid economic growth in China over the past 30 years has resulted in significant increases in the concentrations of small particulates (PM2.5) over the city of Beijing. In addition to health problems, high aerosol loading can impact visibility and thus reduce photolysis rates over the city, leading to potential implications for photochemistry. Photolysis rates are highly sensitive not only to the vertical distribution of aerosols but also to their composition, as this can impact how the incoming solar radiation is scattered or absorbed. This study, for the first time, uses aerosol composition measurements and lidar optical depth to drive the Fast-JX photolysis scheme and quantify the photochemical impacts of different aerosol species during the Air Pollution and Human Health (APHH) measurement campaigns in Beijing in November–December 2016 and May–June 2017. This work demonstrates that severe haze pollution events (PM2.5 > 75 µg m−3) occur during both winter and summer, leading to reductions in O3 photolysis rates of 27 %–34 % (greatest in winter) and reductions in NO2 photolysis of 40 %–66 % (greatest in summer) at the surface. It also shows that in spite of much lower PM2.5 concentrations in the summer months, the absolute changes in photolysis rates are larger for both O3 and NO2. In the winter, absorbing species such as black carbon dominate the photolysis response to aerosols, leading to mean reductions in J[O1D] and J[NO2] in the lowest 1 km of 24 % and 23 %, respectively. In contrast, in the summer, scattering aerosol such as organic matter dominate the response, leading to mean decreases of 2 %–3 % at the surface and increases of 8 %–10 % at higher altitudes (3–4 km). During these haze events in both campaigns, the influence of aerosol on photolysis rates dominates over that from clouds. These large impacts on photochemistry can have significant implications for concentrations of important atmospheric oxidants such as the hydroxyl radical. Idealized photochemical box model studies show that such large impacts on photochemistry could lead to a 12 % reduction in surface O3 (3 % for OH) due to haze pollution. This highlights that PM2.5 mitigation strategies could have important implications for the oxidation capacity of the atmosphere both at the surface and in the free troposphere.
Recent improvements of long-path DOAS measurements: impact on accuracy and stability of short-term and automated long-term observations
Authors: Nasse Jan-Marcus , Eger Philipp G. , Pöhler Denis , Schmitt Stefan , Frieß Udo , Platt Ulrich
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Over the last few decades, differential optical absorption spectroscopy (DOAS) has been used as a common technique to simultaneously measure abundances of a variety of atmospheric trace gases. Exploiting the unique differential absorption cross section of trace-gas molecules, mixing ratios can be derived by measuring the optical density along a defined light path and by applying the Beer–Lambert law. Active long-path (LP-DOAS) instruments can detect trace gases along a light path of a few hundred metres up to 20 km, with sensitivities for mixing ratios down to ppbv and pptv levels, depending on the trace-gas species. To achieve high measurement accuracy and low detection limits, it is crucial to reduce instrumental artefacts that lead to systematic structures in the residual spectra of the analysis. Spectral residual structures can be introduced by most components of a LP-DOAS measurement system, namely by the light source, in the transmission of the measurement signal between the system components or at the level of spectrometer and detector. This article focuses on recent improvements by the first application of a new type of light source and consequent changes to the optical setup to improve measurement accuracy. Most state-of-the-art LP-DOAS instruments are based on fibre optics and use xenon arc lamps or light-emitting diodes (LEDs) as light sources. Here we present the application of a laser-driven light source (LDLS), which significantly improves the measurement quality compared to conventional light sources. In addition, the lifetime of LDLS is about an order of magnitude higher than of typical Xe arc lamps. The small and very stable plasma discharge spot of the LDLS allows the application of a modified fibre configuration. This enables a better light coupling with higher light throughput, higher transmission homogeneity, and a better suppression of light from disturbing wavelength regions. Furthermore, the mode-mixing properties of the optical fibre are enhanced by an improved mechanical treatment. The combined effects lead to spectral residual structures in the range of 5-10×10-5 root mean square (rms; in units of optical density). This represents a reduction of detection limits of typical trace-gas species by a factor of 3–4 compared to previous setups. High temporal stability and reduced operational complexity of this new setup allow the operation of low-maintenance, automated LP-DOAS systems, as demonstrated here by more than 2 years of continuous observations in Antarctica.
Experimental evaluation of oxygen isotopic exchange between inclusion water and host calcite in speleothems
Authors: Uemura Ryu , Kina Yudai , Omine Kanako
Published: August 2019

Abstract. The oxygen and hydrogen isotopic compositions of water in fluid inclusions in speleothems are important hydroclimate proxies because they provide information on the isotopic compositions of rainwater in the past. Moreover, because isotopic differences between fluid inclusion water and the host calcite provide information on the past isotopic fractionation factor, they are also useful for quantitative estimation of past temperature changes. The oxygen isotope ratio of inclusion water (δ18Ofi), however, may be affected by isotopic exchange between the water and the host carbonate. Thus, it is necessary to estimate the bias caused by this post-depositional effect for precise reconstruction of palaeo-temperatures. Here, we evaluate the isotopic exchange reaction between inclusion water and host calcite based on a laboratory experiment involving a natural stalagmite. Multiple stalagmite samples cut from the same depth interval were heated at 105 °C in the laboratory for 0–80 hours. Then, the isotopic compositions of the inclusion water were measured. In the 105 °C heating experiments, the δ18Ofi values increased from the initial value by 0.7 ‰ and then remained stable after ca. 20 hours. The hydrogen isotope ratio of water showed no trend in response to the heating experiments, suggesting that the hydrogen isotopic composition of fluid inclusion water effectively reflects the composition of past dripwater. We then evaluated the process behind the observed isotopic variations using a partial equilibration model. The experimental results are best explained when we assumed that a thin CaCO3 layer surrounding the inclusion reacted with the water. The amount of CaCO3 that reacted with the water is equivalent to 2 % of the water inclusions in molar terms. These results suggest that the magnitude of the isotopic exchange effect has a minor influence on palaeo-temperature estimates for the Quaternary climate reconstructions.
Simple noise estimates and pseudoproxies for the last 21 000 years
Authors: Bothe Oliver , Wagner Sebastian , Zorita Eduardo
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Climate reconstructions are means to extract the signal from uncertain
paleo-observations, so-called proxies. It is essential to evaluate these
reconstructions to understand and quantify their uncertainties.
Similarly, comparing climate simulations and proxies requires approaches
to bridge the temporal and spatial differences between both and to
address their specific uncertainties. One way to achieve these two goals
is so-called pseudoproxies. These are surrogate proxy records within
the virtual reality of a climate simulation. They in turn depend on an
understanding of the uncertainties of the real proxies including the
noise characteristics disturbing the original environmental signal.
Common pseudoproxy approaches so far concentrate on data with high
temporal resolution over the last approximately 2000 years. Here we
provide a simple but flexible noise model for potentially low-resolution
sedimentary climate proxies for temperature on millennial timescales,
the code for calculating a set of pseudoproxies from a simulation, and
one example of pseudoproxies. The noise model considers the influence of
other environmental variables, a dependence on the climate state, a bias
due to changing seasonality, modifications of the archive (for example
bioturbation), potential sampling variability, and a measurement error.
Model, code, and data allow us to develop new ways of comparing simulation
data with proxies on long timescales. Code and data are available at
https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/ZBEHX (Bothe et al., 2018).
Crops' sensitivity and adaptive capacity to drought occurrence
Authors: Alonso Catarina , Gouveia Célia , Russo Ana , Páscoa Patrícia
Published: August 2019

Abstract. In the context of sustainable agricultural management, drought monitoring plays a crucial role assessing the vulnerability of agriculture to drought occurrence. Drought events are very frequent in the Iberian Peninsula (and in Portugal in particular) and an increase of frequency of these extreme events are expected in a very near future. Therefore, the quantitative assessment of the natural ecosystems vulnerability to drought is still very challenging, mainly due to the difficulties of having a common definition of vulnerability. Consequently, several methods have been proposed to assess agricultural vulnerability. In this work, a principal component analysis (PCA) was performed based on the components which characterize the Exposure, Sensitivity and Adaptative Capacity of the agricultural system to drought events with the aim of generating maps of vulnerability of agriculture to drought in Portugal. Several datasets were used to describe these components, namely drought indicators, vegetation indexes and soil characterization variables. A comparison between the PCA-based method and a subjective non-automatic categorical method using the same indicators was performed. Results show that both methods identify Minho and Alentejo as regions of low and extreme vulnerability, respectively. The results are very similar between the two methods, with small differences on certain vulnerability class. However, the PCA method has some advantages over the categorical method, namely the ability to identify the sign of the indicators, not having to use the indicator-component subjective relationship, nor calculating weights. Furthermore, the PCA method is fully statistical and presents results according to a prior knowledge of the region and the data used.
Space Weather Forecasting: What We Know Now and What Are the Current and Future Challenges?
Authors: Tsurutani Bruce T. , Lakhina Gurbax S. , Hajra Rajkumar
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Geomagnetic storms are caused by solar wind southward magnetic fields that impinge upon the Earth’s magnetosphere (Dungey, 1961). How can we forecast the occurrence of these interplanetary events? We view this as the most important challenge in Space Weather. We discuss the case for magnetic clouds (MCs), interplanetary sheaths upstream of ICMEs, corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and high speed streams (HSSs). The sheath- and CIR-related magnetic storms will be difficult to predict and will require better knowledge of the slow solar wind and modeling to solve. There are challenges for forecasting the fluences and spectra of solar energetic particles. This will require better knowledge of interplanetary shock properties from the Sun to 1 AU (and beyond), the upstream slow solar wind and energetic seed particles. Dayside aurora, triggering of nightside substorms, and formation of new radiation belts can all be caused by shock and interplanetary ram pressure impingements onto the Earth’s magnetosphere. The acceleration and loss of relativistic magnetospheric killer electrons and penetrating electric fields in terms of causing positive and negative ionospheric storms are currently reasonable well understood, but refinements can still be made. The forecasting of extreme events (extreme shocks, extreme solar energetic particle events, and extreme geomagnetic storms (Carrington events or greater)) are also discussed. Energetic particle precipitation and ozone destruction is briefly discussed. For many of the studies, the Parker Solar Probe, Solar Orbiter, Magnetospheric Multiscale Mission (MMS), Arase, and SWARM data will be useful.
Modelling future hydroclimatic effects on the Coregonus migratorius spawning migration in the Selenga River and Lake Baikal
Authors: Moreydo Vsevolod , Millionshchikova Tatiana , Chalov Sergey
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Regional climate change affects the flow conditions in
river basins which can impact the health of aquatic ecosystems. Potential
impacts of future climate scenarios on Coregonus migratorius spawning migration in the Selenga
River were assessed. A regional process-based hydrological model was used to
reproduce the historical trends in the annual flow and assess its future
changes under several climate change scenarios. Annual flow projections were
used to identify preferential river reaches for spawning activity of the
Arctic cisco (Coregonus migratorius), based on the significant negative correlation of spawning
activity with the Selenga River streamflow. The applied methodology shows
that the projected decline in runoff of 10 % to 25 % in XXI century may
result in shifting of the spawning locations further upstream of the
Ulan-Ude city, a local “pollution hotspot”.
Magnitude and frequency of debris and slush flows in the Khibiny mountain valleys, Kola Peninsula, NW Russia
Authors: Garankina Ekaterina V. , Belyaev Vladimir R. , Romanenko Fedor A. , Ivanov Maxim M. , Kuzmenkova Natalia V. , Gurinov Artem L. , Tulyakov Egor D.
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Available results for five studied valleys of the Khibiny
Mountains, Kola Peninsula, suggest that slush flows and, possibly for some
valleys, typical debris flows with lower frequency, are a leading mechanism
for downstream sediment delivery and valley floor topographical formation.
Typical fluvial topography in slush flow-affected basins is extremely
suppressed or nonexistent, since under such conditions, stream channels are
unable to rework slush flow deposits. The recovery phase of fluvial
topography can serve as an indicator of the magnitude and time passed since
the last extreme event. A combination of grain size analysis, radionuclide
fingerprinting with the 232Th content in the finer-grained sediment
matrix (size <10 mm) and 14C dating, were applied to reveal
the age and common structure of debris and slush flow environments and to
investigate the main factors in their lithodynamics. Those helped to
estimate transportation distances and capacities of the flows and the amount
of fluvial reworking of its deposits with time. Application of radiocarbon
dating to determine absolute ages (about 30 dates) of stabilization periods
for the colluvial cones, mountain fans and valley bottoms and integration
with other available chronological data provided a basis for distinguishing
several stages of decreased activity of debris and slush flows and extreme
slope failures through the second half of the Holocene. Field mapping and
remote sensing data interpretation revealed spatial distribution patterns of
debris and slush flows. Geomorphic analysis of large relic landforms in
valley bottoms confirms, in general, the case for a significant reduction of
debris flow magnitude since the last deglaciation and distinct shift to
slush flow processes with much lower clastic content. A reliable chronology
of the early events is yet to be obtained representing a challenging problem
for future research.
Suspended sediment yield and climate change in Kamchatka, Far East of Russia
Authors: Kuksina Ludmila V.
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Key factors of sediment yield formation and variability in the Kamchatsky Krai are relief characteristics and climate (especially precipitation). The last research in climate change in Kamchatka demonstrates climate warming – mean annual air temperature has increased on 1.5 ∘C during the period from 1951 to 2009 in average (the maximum increase was revealed in the west of Kamchatka and in the Kamchatka River valley, the minimum one – in the extreme south and north). Decrease of annual precipitation was observed at the same period. In addition frequency and intensity of precipitation is growing. Thereby described climate changes in Kamchatka influence on sediment yield characteristics directly (influence of precipitation on surface washout formation) and indirectly (through water runoff and hydrological regime of rivers changes). Analysis of spatio-temporal variability in suspended sediment yield demonstrated decrease since late 1970–early 1980 in the most part of rivers in the Kamchatsky Krai. Revealed fluctuations demonstrate very good coincidence with precipitation amount variability. Decrease of precipitation leads to corresponding diminution of rainfall erosive factor in the territory which is the key factor of suspended sediment yield formation and variability in rivers in the Kamchatsky Krai. The value of reduction varies from 1 % to 45 % and involves decrease of erosion rates in the territory. Thereby climate change influences on suspended sediment yield in multiple-valued way. Income of friable volcanic deposits on the catchment surface is the key factor of suspended sediment yield formation and variability in some river basins under the impact of volcanic eruptions, and in combination with raising precipitation it can lead to catastrophic increase of sediment yield.
Reconstruction of long-term dynamics of Chernobyl-derived 137Cs in the Upa River using bottom sediments in the Scheckino reservoir and semi-empirical modelling
Authors: Konoplev Alexei V. , Ivanov Maxim M. , Golosov Valentin N. , Konstantinov Evgenyi A.
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Two cores of bottom sediments were collected in 2018 to a depth of ∼200 cm in the deepest part of the Scheckino reservoir on the Upa River (9500 km2), Tula region, Russia. This area was severely contaminated by radiocesium (r-Cs) after the Chernobyl accident in 1986. The fact that 137Cs activity concentrations in a specific horizon of the bottom sediments correspond to 137Cs concentrations associated with suspended matter delivered to the reservoir, provides a basis for constructing the dynamics of particulate 137Cs activity concentrations in the Upa River catchment from 1986 to 2017. Over the time since the Chernobyl accident, the particulate 137Cs concentrations have decreased by more than an order of magnitude, with only minor changes occurring during the last 15 years. Using a typical value for the distribution coefficient Kd for the rivers of the Chernobyl contamination zone, dissolved 137Cs activity concentrations in the Upa River have been estimated and their changes over the past 30 years since the accident have been studied. The resulting estimates of dissolved 137Cs concentrations in the Upa River have been found to be in good agreement with measured data over the period 1987–1991. The proposed and tested method provides a basis for reconstructing the long-term dependence of radionuclide concentrations in rivers and reservoirs based on their vertical distribution in bottom sediments. Reconstructed time dependencies of particulate and dissolved 137Cs activity concentrations in the Upa River were found to be described well by the proposed semi-empirical “diffusion” model based on an assumption that the time dependency of particulate r-Cs in the river corresponds to the time dependency of its concentration in top soil layers across the catchment which can be approximated by a dispersion-convection equation with physically meaningful parameters.
Rózsa G. Hajnóczy’s Bengáli tűz [‘Fire of Bengal’]
Authors: Gaur Savita
Published: August 2019

A Hungarian travel journal written by Rózsa G. Hajnóczy (1892-1944) in either the late 1930s or early 1940s, Bengáli tűz is a work that has gained acclaim among readers in both India and Bangladesh. In 1928, the author travelled to India while accompanying her husband, the famous Orientalist, Gyula Germanus (1884-1979), and she stayed there for three years while recording her personal experiences in journal entries which eventually provided the raw material for Bengáli tűz. In spite of having a very wide fan base of mainly female readers, Bengáli tűz is still not mentioned in the History of Hungarian Literature Lexicon, which raises the issue of why this work has not been included in the canon of Hungarian literature. Since some questions surround whether Hajnóczy actually wrote Bengáli tűz, I aim to explore the issues connected to the authorship of this work while examining it from a comparative cultural perspective via textual analysis. Hajnóczy's journal has an abundance of instances of interculturalism which make it relevant to current readers as well.
The Abject as Body Language in Imre Kertész’s Fateless and Alaine Polcz’s One Woman in the War
Authors: Zsadányi Edit
Published: August 2019

Among the various analyses that examine Imre Kertész’s Fateless, little attention has been paid to the relationship between body and narrative. Using Julia Kristeva’s concept of the abject, I focus on excerpts in the novel in which power breaches the boundaries of the protagonist’s body, Gyuri Köves, as he endures detainment in various concentration camps. In this paper I argue that it is the dehumanized and abjectified body that rebels against totalitarianism by refusing to accept a deceptive survival scenario. When the perspective of death has been accepted, the concept of the abject paradoxically reveals that is the identity’s inherent motherly aspect that is able to provide a human perspective to an abjectified person. After comparing excerpts in Fateless and One Woman in the War by Alaine Polcz, another narrative in which violence breaks the boundaries of the body, I will reach the conclusion that the body itself forms the final frontier of dictatorship. Once totalitarian dictatorship penetrates the body, it loses its influence over the victim as death offers a more humane, more bearable life.
Reflections on the Polanyis’ Mystique: A Review Article of Gareth Dale. Karl Polanyi: A Life on the Left. New York: Columbia UP. 2016 and Judit Szapor. A világhírű Polányiak: Egy elfelejtett család regényes története (Those World Famous Polanyis: Tales of a Long Forgotten Family). Budapest: Aura kiadó. 2017.
Authors: Göllner András B.
Published: August 2019

The Polanyis came to prominence in the capital cities of the Austro-Hungarian Empire (Vienna and Budapest) when words mattered, culture was not a four-letter word and Austro-Hungary was territorially the second-largest and the third most populous entity in Europe. The review examines how two recent biographies about members of the Polanyi family treat their protagonists and the forces that shaped their lives after the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire.
Introduction to the Cluster. Inside and Outside the Patriarchal Box: On Hungarian Historical, Literary, and Filmic Constructions of Gender
Authors: Bollobás Enikő
Published: August 2019

Introduction to the thematic cluster.
The Curious Female Character in István Szabó’s Sunshine
Authors: Dragon Zoltán
Published: August 2019

Hungarian director István Szabó’s films usually feature the story of a young man on his way to becoming an adult during turbulent times in Hungarian history. Strangely enough, however, these stories are framed both visually and narratively in the presence of some female character—the plots, in fact, derive from the actions and decisions of these females. Zoltán Dragon’s paper charts the underlying narrative and visual design in one of the best-known films made by Szabó, Sunshine, identifying the pattern of visual storytellingwhose anchor point is one specific female figure, Vali, in the background. Vali’s role as a focalizing agency is to frame the predominantly male story and reveal the hidden or silenced content that creates an alternative family story.
Kiss, Tamás, Székely, István Gergő, Toró, Tibor, Bárdi, Nándor and Horváth, István, eds. 2018. Unequal Accommodation of Minority Rights - Hungarians in Transylvania. New York and London: Palgrave Macmillan. 545 pp., illus.
Authors: Ferdinand Siarl
Published: August 2019

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ANÁLISE DE FORMULAÇÃO, FPS E ESPECTRO FOTOACÚSTICO DE PROTETORES SOLARES DE DIFERENTES FABRICANTES
Authors: Mascarello Andressa De Freitas , Pinto Giovana Isabel , Nogueira Camila , Caragnato Leticia Kuller , Moura Nicolle Gabrielle de , González-Borrero Pedro Pablo , De Paula Daniel
Published: August 2019

Introdução: A Espectroscopia Fotoacústica (PAS) é uma técnica que permite a obtenção de espectros de absorção óptica de sólidos, líquidos e gases. A medição in vitro do Fator de Proteção Solar (FPS) via PAS apresenta-se como promissora, pois permite a obtenção do espectro de absorção UV do protetor solar, independente da natureza do filtro, orgânico ou inorgânico. Objetivo: Correlacionar o FPS de protetores solares com seus respectivos espectros fotoacústicos, visando a aplicação da PAS para a análise in vitro de FPS. Metodologia: O espectro fotoacústico foi medido na região do UV (280-400nm) para protetores solares de três marcas diferentes. Resultados e Discussão: A marca A obteve o melhor desempenho para o FPS 60, diminuindo no 50 e mantendo a sua curva linear no FPS 15 e 30; a marca B teve sua curva linear até o FPS 50 diminuindo em 60, e para a marca C o FPS com a maior área integrada foi o de FPS 30, diminuindo sua intensidade em 50. Conclusão: Não observou-se um um comportamento linear em relação ao espectro de PAS e os protetores solares analisados, fato que pode estar relacionado com a fotoestabilidade dos filtros e a interação dos mesmos com a pele.
Three Ethical Mystics
Authors: Goodman Daniel Ross
Published: August 2019

This article posits, based upon a comparative reading of various writings of Ralph Waldo Emerson, Abraham Joshua Heschel, and Abraham Isaac Kook, that not only does ethics hold an important place in the spiritual life of these mystically oriented, ethically valenced writers, but that for them ethics and spirituality are inextricably intertwined. For these writers, ethics is a sine qua non for spirituality, and spirituality is intimately interlaced with, and lends support to, the ethical life. Concomitantly, this article postulates that in advancing this claim about ethics, Emerson, Heschel, and Kook wrote with a studied lyrical, poetic prose—a poetics of ethics—in order to impress upon their readers the importance, and the beauty, of the ethical life.
GESTÃO HOSPITALAR E GERENCIAMENTO EM ENFERMAGEM À LUZ DA FILOSOFIA LEAN HEALTHCARE
Authors: Silva Thaís Oliveira da , Vieira Livia Minuzzi , Lemos Tamires Souza , Sant'Anna Fernando Perdoná , Sanches Roberta Seron , Martinez Maria Regina
Published: August 2019

Este artigo objetivou refletir sobre a gestão hospitalar e o gerenciamento em enfermagem atrelados à filosofia Lean Healthcare. Concluiu-se que tanto os hospitais quanto o seu maior quantitativo de trabalhadores, a equipe de enfermagem, podem ser beneficiados com a aplicação dos conceitos Lean, no sentido de evitar desperdícios, agregar valor ao serviço e propiciar mais qualidade de assistência em saúde.
AVALIAÇÃO DE TREINAMENTO SOBRE PRIMEIROS SOCORROS PARA EQUIPE TÉCNICA DE ESCOLAS DE ENSINO ESPECIALIZADO
Authors: Brito Jackeline Gonçalves , Silva Ingrydy Maria da , Godoy Christine Baccarat de , França Ana Paula Dos Santos Jesus Marques
Published: August 2019

Objetivo: analisar o efeito de atividade educativa sobre primeiros socorros em acidentes escolares.Metodologia: estudo quase experimental do tipo antes e depois, realizado com a equipe técnicade escolas de ensino especializado para pessoas com deficiência, no estado do Mato Grosso, entrefevereiro e agosto de 2017. Foi realizado o teste não paramétrico de McNemar para analisar oefeito da atividade educativa.Resultados: participaram 76 profissionais de nível médio, 62 (81,6%) eram do sexo feminino,66 (86,8%) eram Auxiliares de Desenvolvimento Infantil. Dos profissionais, 35 (46,1%) nuncaparticiparam de treinamento ou atividade educativa sobre primeiros socorros. Houve significânciapara o aumento de acerto em todas as questões após o terinamento (p<0,05).Conclusão: os profissionais da equipe técnica apresentaram conhecimento prévio insuficiente sobreprimeiros socorros e o treinamento melhora a segurança dos alunos e contribui para a sociedadeem que estão inseridos. Evidencia-se a importância da inserção do enfermeiro no ambiente escolar.