bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Thermodynamic versus Dynamic Controls on Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble
Authors: Norris Jesse , Chen Gang , Neelin J. David
Published: December 2018

The moisture budget is evaluated as a function of the probability distribution of precipitation for the end of the twentieth century and projected end of the twenty-first century in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble. For a given precipitation percentile, a conditional moisture budget equation relates precipitation minus evaporation ( P − E) to vertical moisture transport, horizontal moisture advection, and moisture storage. At high percentiles, moisture advection and moisture storage cancel and evaporation is negligible, so that precipitation is approximately equal to vertical moisture transport, and likewise for projected changes. Therefore, projected changes to extreme precipitation are approximately equal to the sum of thermodynamic and dynamic tendencies, representing changes to the vertical profiles of moisture content and mass convergence, respectively. The thermodynamic tendency is uniform across percentiles and regions as an intensification of the hydrological cycle, but the dynamic tendency is more complex. For extreme events, per degree of warming, in the mid-to-high latitudes the dynamic tendency is small, so that precipitation approximately scales by the Clausius–Clapeyron 7% K−1 increase. In the subtropics, a drying tendency originating from dynamics offsets the thermodynamic wetting tendency, with the net effect on precipitation varying among regions. The effect of this dynamic drying decreases with increasing percentile. In the deep tropics, a positive dynamic tendency occurs with magnitude similar to or greater than the positive thermodynamic tendency, resulting in generally a 10%–15% K−1 precipitation increase, and with a >25% K−1 increase over the tropical east Pacific. This reinforcing dynamical tendency increases rapidly for high percentiles.
Role of Moisture Transport and Recycling in Characterizing Droughts: Perspectives from Two Recent U.S. Droughts and the CFSv2 System
Authors: Roy Tirthankar , Martinez J. Alejandro , Herrera-Estrada Julio E. , Zhang Yu , Dominguez Francina , Berg Alexis , Ek Mike , Wood Eric F.
Published: December 2018

We investigate the role of moisture transport and recycling in characterizing two recent drought events in Texas (2011) and the Upper Midwest (2012) by analyzing the precipitation, evapotranspiration, precipitable water, and soil moisture data from the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) analysis. Next, we evaluate the CFSv2 forecasts in terms of their ability to capture different drought signals as reflected in the analysis data. Precipitation from both sources is partitioned into recycled and advected components using a moisture accounting–based precipitation recycling model. All four variables reflected drought signals through their anomalously low values, while precipitation and evapotranspiration had the strongest signals. Drought in Texas was dominated by the differences in moisture transport, whereas in the Upper Midwest, the absence of strong precipitation-generating mechanisms was a crucial factor. Reduced advection from the tropical and midlatitude Atlantic contributed to the drought in Texas. The Upper Midwest experienced reduced contributions from recycling, terrestrial sources, the midlatitude Pacific, and the tropical Atlantic. In both cases, long-range moisture transport from oceanic sources was reduced during the corresponding drought years. June and August in Texas and July and August in the Upper Midwest were the driest months, and in both cases, drought was alleviated by the end of August. Moisture from terrestrial sources most likely contributed to alleviating drought intensity in such conditions, even with negative anomalies. The forecasts showed noticeable differences as compared to the analysis for multiple variables in both regions, which could be attributed to several factors as discussed in this paper.
Trends of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction: Soroka Acute Myocardial Infarction II (SAMI II) Project
Authors: Plakht Ygal , Abu Eid Abeer , Gilutz Harel , Shiyovich Arthur
Published: December 2018

Cardiovascular (CV) patients are becoming older with a greater number of CV risk factors (CVRFs). The Framingham risk score (FRS) includes the major CVRFs and is used for CV risk stratification. We investigated temporal trends in burden of CVRFs among patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) throughout a decade. Patients with AMI hospitalized through 2002 to 2012 were studied. The baseline characteristics included age, sex, ethnicity, type of AMI (ST-segment elevation [STEMI] vs non-STEMI [NSTEMI]), coronary artery disease (CAD), diabetes mellitus (DM), dyslipidemia, hypertension, obesity, smoking, and blood lipid profile. The FRS was calculated for each patient. A total of 14 698 AMI admissions were included (age 66.9 ± 13.6 years, 68% males, 47.6% STEMI). Half of admitted cases had ≥4 CVRFs. The mean FRS was 17.1 ± 4.1. Throughout the study period, patients with AMI became older with increased burden of CVRFs. The mean FRS increased from 16.8 ± 4.0 (2002) to 17.3 ± 4.1 (2012; P < .001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated a significant increase in FRS among patients with NSTEMI and significant decrease for patients with STEMI.

Conclusions:

The last decade, patients with AMI became older with increased burden of CVRFs. Framingham risk score increased among patients with NSTEMI and decreased in patients with STEMI. These trends impact on risk stratification and secondary prevention programs.
Thirty-year cardiovascular risk score in patients with newly diagnosed bipolar disorder and their unaffected first-degree relatives
Authors: Coello Klara , Kjærstad Hanne L , Stanislaus Sharleny , Melbye Sigurd , Faurholt-Jepsen Maria , Miskowiak Kamilla Woznica , McIntyre Roger S , Vinberg Maj , Kessing Lars V , Munkholm Klaus
Published: December 2018

Objectives:

Bipolar disorder is associated with a decreased life expectancy of 8–12 years. Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of excess mortality. For the first time, we investigated the Framingham 30-year risk score of cardiovascular disease in patients with newly diagnosed/first-episode bipolar disorder, their unaffected first-degree relatives and healthy individuals.

Methods:

In a cross-sectional study, we compared the Framingham 30-year risk score of cardiovascular disease in 221 patients with newly diagnosed/first-episode bipolar disorder, 50 of their unaffected first-degree relatives and 119 healthy age- and sex-matched individuals with no personal or first-degree family history of affective disorder. Among patients with bipolar disorder, we further investigated medication- and illness-related variables associated with cardiovascular risk.

Results:

The 30-year risk of cardiovascular disease was 98.5% higher in patients with bipolar disorder ( p = 0.017) and 85.4% higher in unaffected first-degree relatives ( p = 0.042) compared with healthy individuals in models adjusted for age and sex. When categorizing participants in low cardiovascular risk without considering age and sex distribution among participants, 81% of patients were at low risk, versus 92% of unaffected relatives and 89% of healthy individuals. Of the patients 209 (94.6%) were diagnosed within the preceding 2 years. Smoking was more prevalent among patients with bipolar disorder (45.2%) and their unaffected first-degree relatives (20.4%) compared with healthy individuals (12.8%). Similarly, dyslipidemia was more common among patients with bipolar disorder compared with healthy individuals. Treatment with psychotropic medication with metabolic adverse effects was associated with higher 30-year cardiovascular disease risk score, whereas we did not find illness-related variables associated with cardiovascular risk among patients with bipolar disorder.

Conclusion:

We found an enhanced cardiovascular disease risk score in patients with newly diagnosed bipolar disorder and their unaffected first-degree relatives, which points to a need for specific primary preventive interventions against smoking and dyslipidemia in these populations.
Workload and Performance: Associations, Insensitivities, and Dissociations
Authors: Hancock P. A. , Matthews Gerald
Published: December 2018

Objective:

The aim of this study was to distill and define those influences under which change in objective performance level and the linked cognitive workload reflections of subjective experience and physiological variation either associate, dissociate, or are insensitive, one to another.

Background:

Human factors/ergonomics frequently employs users’ self-reports of their own conscious experience, as well as their physiological reactivity, to augment the understanding of changing performance capacity. Under some circumstances, these latter workload responses are the only available assessment information to hand. How such perceptions and physiological responses match, fail to match, or are insensitive to the change in primary-task performance can prove critical to operational success. The reasons underlying these associations, dissociations, and insensitivities are central to the success of future effective human–machine interaction.

Method:

Using extant research on the relations between differing methods of workload assessment, factors influencing their association, dissociation, and insensitivity are identified.

Results:

Dissociations and insensitivities occur more frequently than extant explanatory theories imply. Methodological and conceptual reasons for these patterns of incongruity are identified and evaluated.

Application:

We often seek convergence of results in order to provide coherent explanations as bases for future prediction and practical design implementation. Identifying and understanding the causes as to why different reflections of workload diverge can help practitioners toward operational success.
Canada’s G20 entrepreneurship
Authors: Kirton John
Published: December 2018

Canada has been the successful entrepreneurial conceiver, co-creator, and normative and policy shaper of the G20 since the start. Under Paul Martin, Canada invented the concept and mission of the G20, co-creating it as a finance ministerial forum in 1999. Under Stephen Harper, Canada supported its elevation to summit in 2008, hosted it in 2010, and led important policy outcomes. Under Justin Trudeau, Canada further fostered the G20’s institutions, principles, and programs. Despite several entrepreneurial failures, Canada's lead was followed by established and rising members to make its G20 entrepreneurship succeed. Canada’s entrepreneurship was driven by its relative invulnerability to global shocks, its second-tier institutional position in the Bretton Woods institutions, and its rising relative capabilities. Canada’s three leaders brought strong domestic political control; continuity; expertise in business, economics, and finance; and mass public support. Canada was also a well-connected member of a G20 club at the hub of a global network.
Investigation of gear pitting defect using vibration characteristics in a single-stage gearbox
Authors: Sonawane Pavankumar Ravindra , Chandrasekaran M
Published: December 2018

Gearboxes are the important components in process industries such as cement, food processing and rubber. Pitting is the removal of the material in certain part of gear by the application of repeated stresses. Tooth pitting and surface failure occur due to excessive stress conditions. When a number of pits join together, a larger pit is formed, referred as a spall, which may lead to tooth breakage. The early detection and diagnosis of excessive wear tooth pitting and spalling in gear transmission systems are becoming significant concerns in high-speed, large power applications. The early detection of pitting in gears is important from condition monitoring point of view, which is still to be addressed by an experimental approach. In this study, vibration characteristics of a single-stage spur gearbox with pitting as seeded faults are investigated.
Self-silencing and women’s health: A review
Authors: Maji Sucharita , Dixit Shikha
Published: December 2018

The connection between gender and health has intrigued health professionals in the last few decades. Silencing-the-self theory has brought a considerable clarity in this matter. After around three decades of the theory, the literature related to the theory has immensely flourished and has covered different branches of psychology. The aim of the present work is to provide a comprehensive picture of the qualitative and quantitative research findings that have connected self-silencing to health and well-being of women. This article presents a critical review of relevant articles. These articles have used the self-silencing theory as an explanation of women’s higher vulnerability to certain diseases as well as their experience with them. Self-silencing has been found to explain the gender gap in psychiatric disorders like depression, eating disorders and so on. It also influences the resilience and therapeutic effects among female patients with chronic conditions such as cancer, AIDS and so on. Moreover, self-silencing has also been found to be associated with women’s health issues such as pre-menstrual dysphoric disorder. The present study discusses the existing literature in a narrative manner along with suggesting some relevant research gaps that can be worth exploring in the future.
Music in Chicago Schools
Authors: Browne J. Lewis
Published: December 2018

The past few years have witnessed a remarkable development of music in the Chicago schools. Here is the story of that development by the man chiefly responsible for directing it.
The Folk Economy of Rural Mexico with Special Reference to Marketing
Authors: Foster George M.
Published: December 2018

Editor's Note: This is an interesting article which has to do largely with marketing in a primitive society. The article has particularly important implications at this time because of the discussion of sources for a theory of marketing presented in the first article in this issue.
Trends in Pharmaceutical Advertising
Authors: Wegner Walter O.
Published: December 2018

To inform physicians about their products and to induce them to prescribe those products, drug manufacturers rely increasingly on medical journals. These professional publications enjoy a high degree of readership among physicians and, therefore, are an important instrument in the pharmaceutical marketing process.

This article points out some of the major trends in medical-journal advertising and concludes with a forecast for the next two decades.
Distributing Fertilizers by Administrative Order in India
Authors: Walters J. Hart
Published: December 2018

What happens when a government tries to substitute its own decisions for those of the market place in determining who shall consume what quantities of a commodity?

The Indian Government's fertilizer-consumption goals deviated substantially from previously existing market patterns. The Government was partly successful in changing consumption patterns by allocating fertilizer supplies to specified crops and regions in keeping with its planned targets. Some difficulties were encountered, largely because the method Government used to set its allotment quotas differed from those that actually determined the amounts taken by wholesale and retail distributors.
Marketing Professional Services
Authors: Kotler Philip , Connor Richard A.
Published: December 2018

A specific program for managers of professional services firms:
Importance-Performance Analysis
Authors: Martilla John A. , James John C.
Published: December 2018

An easily-applied technique for measuring attribute importance and performance can further the development of effective marketing programs.
Componential Segmentation in the Analysis of Consumer Trade-Offs
Authors: Green Paul E. , DeSarbo Wayne S.
Published: December 2018

This paper presents and applies a trade-off model that considers consumer preference/choice to be a function of the interaction of product and person attributes, in addition to product attributes alone. Its practical applicability in reducing data collection costs in commercial marketing research studies also is discussed.
Analyzing Large Multiway Contingency Tables: A Simple Method for Selecting Variables
Authors: Dillon William R.
Published: December 2018

This study discusses a simple variable selection procedure, similar in nature to the “F-to-enter” criterion used in stepwise multiple regression, suitable for multidimensional contingency tables having one criterion variable. The procedure is applied to an illustrative set of marketing data and contrasted with other, better-known methods.
Experience Curves and Dynamic Demand Models: Implications for Optimal Pricing Strategies
Authors: Dolan Robert J. , Jeuland Abel P.
Published: December 2018

Recent empirical research shows that supply and demand conditions are typically not stable over time. The evolution of these factors and the firm's ability to impact the evolution have important pricing implications. This paper presents a general methodology for determining the optimal pricing strategy over the product life cycle given evolutionary forces in the environment, and derives the optimal pricing strategy for some well known dynamic models.
A Theoretical and Empirical Evaluation of Price Deals for Consumer Nondurables
Authors: Blattberg Robert C. , Eppen Gary D. , Lieberman Joshua
Published: December 2018

Food retailers regularly offer products for less than normal market price in special sales or deals. This paper briefly examines several common explanations for this phenomenon and finds the analyses to be less than complete. It then presents an explanation for dealing of storable products based on the idea of transfering inventory carrying costs from the retailer to the consumer. An inventory control model is described in which both consumers and the retailer act so as to minimize their own costs. Results derived from this model are then presented. Data relevant to both the consumer and the retailer model are presented and analyzed. The conclusion is that the data are consistent with the predictions of the models. Finally, the strategic implications of the model for manufacturers and retailers are discussed.
New Product Scenarios: Prospects for Success
Authors: Calantone Roger , Cooper Robert G.
Published: December 2018

New product development and launch is a critical but high risk corporate endeavor. This article examines almost 200 industrial new product introductions in order to identify the ingredients of new product success. A categorization scheme, involving scenarios of new products, is developed from the data, and proves useful in assessing the merits and dangers of various types of new product projects.
The Effects of Reference Prices in Retail Advertisements
Authors: Blair Edward A. , Landon E. Laird
Published: December 2018

This article considers the effects of reference prices in retail advertisements, that is, comparison prices cited as evidence of the savings represented by advertised prices. Reference prices are found to increase consumers’ estimates of the savings offered by advertised prices, though the full savings claims made by reference prices are not accepted. Results suggest that false reference prices do have the capacity to deceive but that deception is not guaranteed.
Behavioral Learning Theory: Its Relevance to Marketing and Promotions
Authors: Rothschild Michael L. , Gaidis William C.
Published: December 2018

Behavioral learning theory has been generally overlooked in the development of marketing thought. The central concept states that behavior that is positively reinforced is more likely to recur than nonreinforced behavior. This runs parallel to the marketing concept and may be a sufficient model for dealing with most low involvement purchase situations. Its greatest value may be in the development of promotional strategies. This paper extends some of the ideas presented in an earlier paper in this journal.
Measure Unreliability: A Hidden Threat to Cross-National Marketing Research?
Authors: Davis Harry L. , Douglas Susan P. , Silk Alvin J.
Published: December 2018

A potential threat to conclusions drawn from cross-national marketing surveys is that arising from differences in measure reliability. In a five-country study, between-sample reliability differentials were uncovered that appeared to be related to type of measure but not to particular national samples or language groups.
The Marketing of Legal Services
Authors: Darden Donna K. , Darden William R. , Kiser G. E.
Published: December 2018

This article takes a marketing analysis perspective of the distribution of legal services. A study of the demographic, personal, and life cycle characteristics of users and nonusers of legal services reveals that users are still primarily those with money and prestige. Some difference is found in the ways the two groups perceive important characteristics of lawyers for decision making purposes and in their perceptions of what potential legal needs are the most important. The problem of unevenness in the distribution system is seen as a marketing one. Suggestions as to how the delivery of services can be improved to present nonusers are made, based on market analysis.
Cognitive Moral Development and Marketing
Authors: Goolsby Jerry R. , Hunt Shelby D.
Published: December 2018

Many academic disciplines are approaching the study of ethics from a cognitive orientation by exploring the moral reasoning processes individuals use to make ethical judgments. The authors empirically examine a rich theoretical concept with an extensive research-based literature, cognitive moral development or CMD, as it relates to professional marketing. Controlling for similar educational background, they find that (1) professional marketing practitioners compare favorably with other social groups, (2) marketers scoring high on CMD tend to be female and highly educated, and (3) marketers with advanced moral reasoning properties tend to have socially responsible attitudes and behaviors. Implications for marketing theory, education, and practice are discussed.
A Market Expansion Ability Approach to Identify Potential Exporters
Authors: Yang Yoo S. , Leone Robert P. , Alden Dana L.
Published: December 2018

The authors develop and apply a probabilistic model designed to identify currently nonexporting manufacturers with a relatively high potential for future exports. The proposed model includes a new predictive construct (market expansion ability), which incorporates the time dimension of firm behavior, in addition to more familiar attitudinal constructs such as perceived barriers to exporting. The model is demonstrated with a sample of 345 nonexporting manufacturers. Several evaluative tests, including a test of predictive validity with a sample of 43 current exporters, provide evidence of the model's ability to identify nonexporting manufacturers with export potential.
Diluting Brand Beliefs: When Do Brand Extensions Have a Negative Impact?
Authors: Loken Barbara , John Deborah Roedder
Published: December 2018

This paper examines situations in which brand extensions are more or less likely to dilute beliefs associated with the family brand name. The results of an experimental investigation indicate that dilution effects do occur when brand extension attributes are inconsistent with the family brand beliefs. However, they are less likely to emerge when consumers perceive the brand extension as atypical of the family brand, and typicality of the brand extension is salient at the time beliefs are assessed. These findings held regardless of brand extension category, with the extension category being either the same or different from those product categories already occupied by the family brand, but differing by the type of family brand belief involved. Results are discussed in terms of the conditions under which two alternative theoretical perspectives (“bookkeeping” versus “typicality-based” models) are supported.
Rediscovering Satisfaction
Authors: Fournier Susan , Mick David Glen
Published: December 2018

The authors present a phenomenological and longitudinal investigation of satisfaction, as revealed through consumers’ ownership experiences with technological products. The study seeks to serve a provocative role in this mature research area by stepping back from the historically dominant comparison standards paradigm to question, invigorate, and, in certain ways, redirect satisfaction research along emergent lines. Although results show that the dominant paradigm of satisfaction and its competing models (i.e., those based on the confirmation/disconfirmation of preconsumption standards) are distinctly operative in some of the consumer cases, they are also found to be insufficient or even irrelevant in others. The authors consider several theoretical extensions in light of this learning and induct a new satisfaction paradigm. Overall, the findings support a more holistic, context-dependent, and dynamic process of satisfaction. This process is revealed as a multi-model, multi-modal blend of motivations, cognitions, emotions, and meanings, embedded in sociocultural settings, which transforms during progressive and regressive consumer–product interactions.
The Effects of Competition on Retail Structure: An Examination of Intratype, Intertype, and Intercategory Competition
Authors: Miller Chip E. , Reardon James , McCorkle Denny E.
Published: December 2018

Discount retailers and “category killers” are believed to be so detrimental to the existing retail environment that many communities have fought their entry through zoning and other regulations. However, the authors suggest that the patterns of competition among different types of retailers are more complex than previously believed. To understand this complexity better, they explore the cross-sectional relationship of competition and retail structure for different types of retailers. Contrary to popular opinion, the findings suggest a positive association between the number of larger stores and the number and size of smaller stores. This implies a mutually beneficial relationship among different types of retailers rather than an overwhelming competitive advantage for larger stores.
Vertical Territorial Restrictions and Public Policy: Theories and Industry Evidence
Authors: Dutta Shantanu , Heide Jan B. , Bergen Mark
Published: December 2018

Territorial restrictions long have been the subject of intense policy debate. The central issue in this debate has been whether such distribution arrangements are deployed for efficiency or anticompetitive purposes. The authors add to the debate by broadening the existing conceptualization of business efficiency and providing evidence of the importance of efficiency considerations in the decision to deploy restrictions. In the past, efficiency often has been viewed narrowly, in terms of giving distributors incentives to provide free-rideable services. The authors show that information asymmetry and transaction costs also represent important efficiency-based explanations of territorial restrictions. With regard to anticompetitive concerns, their results show that manufacturers are more likely to use territorial restrictions when they face competition ex ante. Ultimately, this may reduce interbrand competition. From a public policy perspective, their pattern of results supports the current rule of reason treatment of territorial restrictions in the United States. At the same time it questions the current European policy of per se illegality.
Modular Architectures in the Marketing Process
Authors: Sanchez Ron
Published: December 2018

Modular product architectures are being adopted as the basis for new product designs in a growing number of markets. In this article, the author explains how adoption of modular product architectures makes possible new kinds of processes for creating and realizing products, as well as new approaches to identifying and managing organizational knowledge used in product creation and realization. When managed strategically, modular product, process, and knowledge architectures enable firms to create greater product variety, introduce technologically improved products more rapidly, bring new products to market more quickly, and lower costs of product creation and realization. This article investigates the ways in which the strategic use of modular architectures can affect the marketing process. It explains ways in which modular architectures change the technologically determined possibilities for product creation and realization in the marketing process, create new market dynamics, and lead to new objectives and methods for the marketing process.
Information Availability as a Determinant of Multiple Request Effectiveness
Authors: Tybout Alice M. , Sternthal Brian , Calder Bobby J.
Published: December 2018

Foot-in-the-door and door-in-the-face are multiple request techniques frequently used to increase behavioral compliance. However, results from experimental research indicate that these techniques may enhance, undermine, or have no effect on compliance. In the authors’ research, the notion of information availability is introduced to help specify when multiple request techniques are likely to be effective. Four experiments are reported that test and support the information availability predictions.
A Markov Analysis of Fund-Raising Alternatives
Authors: Soukup David J.
Published: December 2018

The author explores the strategies of fund-raising for a nonprofit organization to maximize net income. The giving pattern of members is modeled as a Markov chain. The alternatives are evaluated using Howard's value-determination policy-improvement method and an optimum strategy is found.
Pooling Logit Models
Authors: Gatignon Hubert , Reibstein David J.
Published: December 2018

The typical testing for equality of parameters across several response functions cannot be performed when the dependent variable is a probability. The authors investigate the pooling issues of the response function when the model is specified as a transformational logit. Various estimation methods are compared and an iterative generalized least squares procedure is proposed for testing the poolability of transformational logit response functions.
Recovering Micro Parameters from Aggregate Data for the Koyck and Brand Loyal Models
Authors: Kanetkar Vinay , Weinberg Charles B. , Weiss Doyle L.
Published: December 2018

The authors investigate the measurement of the sales-advertising relationship with temporally aggregated data. Previous work has produced encouraging results for recovering micro-level parameters of the brand loyal model from data aggregated over time, but the Koyck model has not been studied in this context. The authors develop methods for recovering micro parameters of the Koyck model and extend the results for the brand loyal model. The results are supported by simulation experiments examining both asymptotic and small-sample properties.
Analysis of Referral Networks in Marketing: Methods and Illustration
Authors: Reingen Peter H. , Kernan Jerome B.
Published: December 2018

Though many marketers—particularly those in the service sector—depend on word of mouth (WOM) for referrals, the traditional sample survey methodology used in previous WOM research does not explicate the interpersonal nature of informal communication. The authors propose network analysis as an alternative method for research on referral behavior. The sampling, data-gathering, and analytic aspects of referral network analysis are described in general terms and illustrated with a case study which, in addition to yielding interesting descriptive information about a service marketer's referral network, affords a test of the strength-of-ties hypothesis in influencing referral flows.
Territory Sales Response Models: Stability over Time
Authors: Ryans Adrian B. , Weinberg Charles B.
Published: December 2018

Empirical tests of territory sales response models have involved primarily a cross-sectional analysis of a salesforce at one point in time. Because such models often influence subsequent management decisions, the assumption that such models are stable over time is an important one. The authors consider factors that could influence the stability of such a model and use a five-year data base to explore the stability of a previously reported model of territory sales response. In this data base all the parameters appear to be stable over time.
A Correction for Biasing Effects of Pilot Sample Size on Sample Size Determination
Authors: Shiffler Ronald E. , Adams Arthur J.
Published: December 2018

When a pilot study variance is used to estimate σ2 in the sample size formula, the resulting [Formula: see text] is a random variable. The authors investigate the theoretical behavior of [Formula: see text]. Though [Formula: see text] is more likely to underachieve than overachieve the unbiased n, correction factors to balance the bias are provided.
Assessing Attribute Significance in Conjoint Analysis: Nonparametric Tests and Empirical Validation
Authors: Kohli Rajeev
Published: December 2018

Statistical testing of attribute significance is not possible in conjoint studies that use nonmetric algorithms to analyze respondent ranks of multiattribute product profiles. Procedures that test attribute significance at an aggregate (e.g., segment) level but maintain individual differences in preferences can be used (1) to confirm differences among benefits sought by hypothesized segments of respondents, (2) to eliminate insignificant attributes, reducing the time and cost of conjoint choice simulations, and (3) to design subsequent conjoint studies for the same product class. The author presents two tests of attribute significance in conjoint analysis. One is appropriate when consumer preferences for attribute levels can be ordered a priori and the other can be used when such ordering is not permissible. Each test permits different levels of an attribute to appear in different numbers of product profiles. The proposed tests assess attribute significance across multiple respondents with idiosyncratic preferences. Because they use rank order data, the testing procedures are not limited to a specific scaling algorithm. A Monté Carlo simulation indicates that eliminating insignificant attributes does not affect share-of-choices predictions for new product concepts if the number of insignificant attributes is not very large. Otherwise, the usual tradeoff between parsimony and predictive accuracy is necessary.
A Direct Aggregation Approach to Inferring Microparameters of the Koyck Advertising-Sales Relationship from Macro Data
Authors: Srinivasan V. , Weir Helen A.
Published: December 2018

The authors examine the advertising-sales relationship in the framework of the Koyck model. They note that if only macro (e.g., annual) data are available, it is necessary to approximate micro (e.g., monthly) data in order to minimize the “data interval bias” in estimating the microparameters. They examine two previously proposed models for minimizing the data interval bias and propose a direct aggregation model that avoids some of the problems common to those two models. The proposed constrained search estimation method eliminates the problem of infeasible parameter estimates present in the OLS estimation of the two previous models. A comparison of the constrained search estimation of the three models in a simulation setting indicates that the proposed model recovers the microparameters more accurately than the other two models.
A Practical Bayesian Approach to Selection of Optimal Market Testing Strategies
Authors: Chatterjee Rabikar , Eliashberg Jehoshua , Gatignon Hubert , Lodish Leonard M.
Published: December 2018

The authors describe a methodology and a personal-computer-based decision model for selecting optimal market testing strategies. A Bayesian decision theoretic framework is used that (1) considers continuously distributed payoffs, (2) allows for updating of information on market response to strategies that are not being tested directly (relaxing the assumption of independence among test outcomes), and (3) incorporates managers’ attitude toward risk. The goals of the methodology are to bring managers a practical, usable tool that will help support their design of market tests and to obtain some insights into the market testing problem. An application of the methodology is reported to illustrate the potential of the model as a practical and easily implementable marketing decision aid. Using the analytical insights obtained from the model, the authors summarize the influence of the various characteristics of the alternative strategies on the value of a market test and the choice of the test strategy.
Pioneering and Market Share: Is Entry Time Endogenous and does it Matter?
Authors: Moore Michael J. , Boulding William , Goodstein Ronald C.
Published: December 2018

All previous empirical work assessing the effects of pioneering on firm performance treats pioneering as an exogenous variable. The authors develop a theoretical model of the entry decision that suggests treatment of pioneering as an endogenous variable. They test the model by reestimating a recent empirical pioneering model. Using Hausman's specification test, they find statistically significant bias in the exogenous pioneering model. In assessing the effect of pioneering on market share, they find substantive differences between the biased and inconsistent exogenous pioneering estimates and the consistent endogenous estimates in terms of both statistical and practical significance.
Purchasing Agents’ Use of Negotiation Strategies
Authors: Perdue Barbara C. , Summers John O.
Published: December 2018

The authors report the findings from a field study of purchasing agents negotiating rebuy purchases of component parts. The negotiating stance adopted by industrial buyers is characterized by their reliance on three basic negotiation strategies: problem solving, manipulating perceptions about competition, and tough tactics. A structural model relating the purchasing agent's use of each of these strategies to six characteristics of the purchase context (material cost sensitivity of the buying firm, supplier competition, uniqueness of the buying firm's specifications, buyer's cooperative orientation, having information, and formal planning) is developed and empirically tested with data collected in a national survey of more than 300 purchasing agents. The results demonstrate the ability of the contextual variables to predict the emphasis purchasing agents will place on each of the individual strategies in any particular set of negotiations.
Multiattribute Dyadic Choice: Models and Tests
Authors: Curry David J. , Menasco Michael B. , Ark James W. Van
Published: December 2018

Three models for resolving a cooperative, dyadic choice problem are formulated and solved. Solutions are presented in n-dimensional attribute space (versus the utility plane) to focus on cognitive conflict between decision makers rather than on goal conflict. Forecasts from the models are compared in a choice experiment. All three models outperform chance in predicting a dyad's first choice, but the nonzero reference point model best predicts second through nth places—a desirable feature for product positioning applications. Recommendations for incorporating the model into choice simulators and expert negotiating systems are provided.
A Reservation-Price Model for Optimal Pricing of Multiattribute Products in Conjoint Analysis
Authors: Kohli Rajeev , Mahajan Vijay
Published: December 2018

A significant application of conjoint analysis is in pricing decisions for new products. Conceptually, profit maximization is an important criterion for selecting the price of a product. However, the maximization of profit necessitates estimation of fixed and variable costs, which are difficult to estimate reliably for the large number of products available for evaluation in conjoint analysis. Consequently, users of conjoint models have begun to use a share simulation to screen a small set of attractive products. For each screened product, fixed and variable costs are estimated separately and used to simulate its profits at different price levels. The limitation of this approach is that the profit simulations are based on the assumption that the conjoint data, and hence the predicted profits, are error free. Also, though the purpose of examining alternative prices is to determine the best price at which to offer a new product, current conjoint simulators do not focus explicitly on optimal pricing decisions. The authors describe and illustrate a model for optimal pricing of screened products in conjoint analysis, incorporating the effect of measurement and estimation error on predicted profits.
Forecasting the Effects of an Aging Population on Product Consumption: An Age-Period-Cohort Framework
Authors: Rentz Joseph O. , Reynolds Fred D.
Published: December 2018

A method of forecasting the effects of changing age distributions and cohort succession on product consumption is presented. Cohort analysis is used to estimate the effects of age, period, and cohort membership on consumption. Recent developments in cohort analysis are reviewed and a study of coffee consumption reported. The forecasts differ from traditional cross-sectional forecasts and in some cases predict changes opposite in directionality. The cohort forecasts are shown to be more accurate than cross-sectional forecasts in the coffee study. The method is not limited to forecasting product consumption, but can be used in forecasting other behaviors, attitudes, and opinions.
Full-Information Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Brand Positioning Maps Using Supermarket Scanning Data
Authors: Waarts Eric , Carree Martin , Wierenga Berend
Published: December 2018

The authors build on the idea put forward by Shugan to infer product maps from scanning data. They demonstrate that the actual estimation procedure used by Shugan has several methodological problems and may yield unstable estimates. They propose an alternative estimation procedure, full-information maximum likelihood (FIML), which addresses the problems and yields significantly improved results. An important additional advantage of the procedure is that the parameters of the preference distribution can be estimated simultaneously with the brand coordinates. Hence, it is not necessary to assume a fixed (uniform) distribution of preferences. An empirical application is presented in which the outcomes obtained from Shugan's procedure are compared with those from the proposed procedure.
Internal Customers and Internal Suppliers
Authors: Hauser John R. , Simester Duncan I. , Wernerfelt Birger
Published: December 2018

To push a customer and market orientation deep into the organization, many firms have adopted systems by which internal customers evaluate internal suppliers. The internal supplier receives a larger bonus for a higher evaluation. The authors examine two internal customer-internal supplier incentive systems. In one system, the internal customer provides the evaluation implicitly by selecting the percentage of its bonus that is based on market outcomes (e.g., a combination of net sales and customer satisfaction if these measures can be tied to incremental profits). The internal supplier's reward is based on the percentage that the internal customer chooses. In the second system, the internal customer selects target market outcomes, and the internal supplier is rewarded on the basis of the target. In each incentive system, some risk is transferred from the firm to the employees, and the firm must pay for this; but in return, the firm need not observe either the internal supplier's or the internal customer's actions. The incentive systems are robust even if the firm guesses wrongly about what employees perceive as costly and about how employee actions affect profit. The authors discuss how these systems relate to internal customer satisfaction systems and profit centers.
George Kennedy Allen Bell, Bishop of Chichester and Pastoral Liturgist
Authors: Haselock Jeremy
Published: December 2018

George Bell is perhaps best known today as an ecumenist, for his courageous criticism of the saturation bombing of German cities during the Second World War, and for awakening the church in Europe to its vital role in post-war reconciliation and reconstruction. This international reputation has masked his many other talents and achievements as a diocesan bishop, not least his work in the field of pastoral liturgy. He had very early contact with the Continental leaders of the Liturgical Movement and became an active promoter of their aims, encouraging liturgical awareness among the parish clergy of his diocese and beyond.
Leaders for the Liturgical People: Shaping Students for Ministry in the Twenty-First Century
Authors: Roppelt Rowena
Published: December 2018

In my first year of undergraduate studies at the University of Toronto, I enrolled in a course entitled “The Christian Imagination.” It introduced the students to Christian art across the ages, and it was taught by a very clever and energetic woman with a French accent. It was a mind-bending experience. In the course of the semester, Dr Langan showed us hundreds of slides of sculpture, painting and architecture. Quite apart from the incredible amount of material, it was the challenge to appreciate the great variety of expressions of the Christian experience that took my breath away. At the end of the semester, I vowed never to take another course in the Christianity and Culture program. It was just too stressful. Yet the next semester I found myself signing up for more of the same and after four years graduated with a major in the program. I have reflected upon what it was about this program which caught and held me. I believe that I was fascinated by the challenge to see Christianity from new and varying perspectives, to understand and evaluate the ways in which the Christian faith has been and continues to be lived in differing situations, and to imagine how the church might faithfully and creatively live the faith in the future. It was this fascination that brought me to the study of liturgy and which I dream of passing on to others.
Continuous Formation of Liturgy through Social Cognition
Authors: De Klerk Ben J. , Kruger Ferdi P.
Published: December 2018

Continuous formation of liturgy through social cognition

In this article the authors intend to do research on two focal points, namely liturgical formation and also the influence that social cognition has on formation. Within a South African context it is evident that Western cultural liturgical traditions and African traditions are meeting each other. This meeting is challenging because of the questions that come to the foreground in addressing this matter. The process of enculturalisation is prominent in recent research. This research is although referring to the process of social cognition as a manner in which people are observing each other and also ‘n manner in which people are trying to make sense of other cultures and people of that cultures. People's cognition can be wrong and therefore distortions can also emanate. The main research question for this investigation is: How does social cognition influence the process of liturgical formation? In this research, first of all, the authors offer a descriptive-empirical vantage point in order to investigate this matter. Two local congregations were visited. The authors give reflection of their own cognition but also provide the cognition of the leaders which are interviewed. Normative perspectives from Acts 17:16–35 is provided to highlight the role of cognition of liturgical formation. The hermeneutic interaction between the various elements of this research and also hermeneutic guidelines are provided.