bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Studying the Long-Term Variability of the Solar Corona Using Modeling and Remote-Sensing Observations 
Authors: Koban Gergely , Szente Judit , van der Holst Bart
Published: March 2024

The Sun is a subject to vivid research due to its significant impact on our daily existence. We know about the periodic behaviour in the structure of the Sun, the 11-year solar cycle, but we have yet to fully understand what it means for the inner heliosphere and how it affects the solar wind. Accurately modelling these structural changes in the solar Corona on large time scales is important to understand and even predict solar weather patterns that could potentially influence Earth's magnetic field, telecommunications, and even space missions. Fully comprehending these changes is crucial for enhancing our ability to forecast and prepare for potential solar events that might affect various aspects of our technological infrastructure and space exploration endeavours. To this end, we have prepared a database of solar corona and inner heliosphere simulations with the Space Weather Modeling Framework’s Alfvén Wave Solar atmosphere Model (SWMF/AWSoM) during Solar Cycles 24 and 25. Using SolarSoft’s FORWARD we study the distribution and emission of solar wind origins, such as coronal holes and active regions, throughout the solar cycles and analyse how well AWSoM is reproducing them at different phases of the solar cycle. We also compare how 1AU in-situ plasma measurements are predicted and how it relates to the reproduction of the origin of the solar wind in the corona.  Studying the reproducibility of the coronal and heliospheric plasma throughout decades of time can prove invaluable in understanding changes in the solar structure during a solar cycle and benchmark the accuracy of the models’ predictive power in the future. 
Long-Term Negative Emissions and Irreversibilities following Temporary Overshoots: An Earth System Model Perspective
Authors: Lacroix Fabrice , Burger Friedrich , Silvy Yona , Rodrigues Regina , Schleussner Carl F. , Frölicher Thomas L.
Published: March 2024

Our understanding of impacts and feedbacks associated with temporarily overshooting the Paris Agreement temperature goal - where the 1.5 °C global warming target is exceeded and retraced at a later time period - is currently limited. Such overshoot scenarios are of increasing likelihood and have the potential to be devasting in terms of both their peak impacts and irreversibility, affecting natural and human systems.Here, we apply the Earth System Model GFDL-ESM2M coupled to the Adaptive Emission Reduction Approach (AERA) in order to perform novel policy-relevant simulations over the 1861 to 2500 period that temporarily overshoot the global warming target of 1.5 °C at various levels of peak global warming (2.0, 2.5 and 3.0 °C), and compare these to a reference scenario that stabilizes at 1.5 °C. We use this framework to isolate features arising from the overshoots, and investigate (1) negative emissions needed to reverse an overshoot and their impacts for cumulative emissions, (2) spatial differences in surface warming and oceanic heat content between overshoot and 1.5°C stabilization case, and (3) impacts that these spatial differences have for precipitation, sea level rise and ocean ecosystem stressors.Our framework suggests levels of negative carbon emissions of up to 9 Pg C yr-1 to revert the global temperature the most extreme overshoot of 3.0 °C back to 1.5 °C, with less cumulative emissions allowed in the long-term than in the 1.5 °C simulation to maintain global temperature at 1.5°C. We detect long-term high latitude warming of up to 2.1 °C averaged over the North Atlantic and 0.5 °C over the Southern Ocean that persists after the overshoot. We attribute the persistent warming in the high latitudes to the recovery of both Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Antarctic abyssal overturning, which retrace to even higher levels in the overshoots than in the 1.5 °C stabilization case. These impact the distribution of precipitation, for instance stronger precipitation found in the high latitudes in the overshoots, as wells as the Pacific Walker Cell. The model also shows that due to excess heat storage in the subsurface of low latitudinal oceans, sea level rise does not recover back to 1.5 °C stabilization levels in overshoot scenarios, remaining up to 20 % higher in the strongest overshoot. The persistent long-term changes that the overshoots that we detect imply consequences for regional climates, cryosphere and marine ecosystems lasting for decades or even centuries after the overshoot reversal. 
Comparative Assessment of Sinkhole Susceptibility Mapping in Mexico City: Weight of Evidence versus Weighted Linear Summation
Authors: García Cruzado Sergio A. , Ramírez Serrato Nelly L. , Herrera Zamarrón Graciela S. , Yépez Rincón Fabiola D, , Villareal Samuel
Published: March 2024

Sinkholes are a geological phenomenon that appears as a closed funnel-shaped surface depression, where water can stagnate and drain into the subsoil. This phenomenon occurs mainly in karst environments, however it can also occur in multiple geological environments, generated by natural and anthropogenic processes, such as subsurface erosion, changes in groundwater levels and groundwater extraction, among others. The main distinctive feature of sinkholes is that their presence is not detectable until a sudden collapse of the surface layer of soil occurs, generating a significant risk for infrastructure and population in urban areas. Mexico City presents a critical situation due to the presence of sinkholes, since from 2017 to 2020 more than 500 sinkholes have been registered throughout the city, exposing to serious risks to the structures, roads and safety of the people who live and transit daily in the city. The aim of this study is to compare the sinkhole susceptibility maps of two methodologies: Weights of Evidence and Weighted Linear Sum. The accuracy of both methodologies will be obtained by comparing the values obtained using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and the Area Under the Curve (AUC). The maps were elaborated using a GIS database made up of 18 conditioning factors (groundwater depletion, land elevation, density of waterlogging, density of faults, density of fractures, density of leaks, density of mines, density of water wells, density of natural drainage, distance to faults, distance to fractures, distance to subway lines, distance to mines, distance to roads, sinking speed, slope, lithology and land use) and the record of damage caused by sinkholes in Mexico City. Both maps show a good identification of areas susceptible to the presence of sinkholes, with the central-northern and eastern parts of the city having the greatest potential for sinkhole formation. The convergence of the results underlines the importance of the conditioning factors that contribute to the formation of sinkholes, highlighting the factors of anthropogenic origin as the main forming factors. The findings emphasize the potential of both methods to generate good urban planning and elaborate adequate risk mitigation strategies in the identified areas.
Monitoring Shear-Zone Weakening in East Antarctic Outlet Glaciers through Differential InSAR Measurements
Authors: Wild Christian , Drews Reinhard , Neckel Niklas , Lee Joohan , Sihyung Kim , Han Hyangsun , Lee Won Sang , Helm Veit , Marsh Oliver , Rack Wolfgang
Published: March 2024

The stability of polar ice sheets is governed by the seaward movement of ice streams which is decelerated by resistance originating from lateral shear zones. We explore the impact of crystal-scale anisotropy on effective ice stiffness, with regional-scale consequences on ice dynamics. Using the flexural response of Priestley Glacier to tidal forcing as an experimental framework, we constrain isotropic and anisotropic elastic models of vertical tidal ice-shelf flexure. We find that a five-fold reduction of local ice stiffness within narrow lateral shear-zone best fits DInSAR measurements from Sentinel-1. Our modeling not only reproduces 31 double-differential interferograms but also resolves them into 56 individual maps of vertical displacement during SAR image acquisition. Validated with GPS measurements, the inclusion of effective shear-zone weakening significantly reduces the root-mean-square-error of predicted and observed vertical displacement by 84%, from 0.182 m to 0.03 m. These results highlight the untapped potential of DInSAR imagery for mapping ice anisotropy along the feature-rich Antarctic grounding zone, an essential parameter for advancing current ice-sheet flow models.
Sensitivity Analysis of the Lorentz Energy Cycle in the ICON-O Model
Authors: Hillenkötter Dominic , Brüggemann Nils
Published: March 2024

This study provides an analysis of the ocean Lorentz Energy Cycle (LEC) simulated with an ICON-O configuration of 5km horizontal resolution. We focus on those aspects of the LEC related to the dissipation of mesoscale eddy energy. Since most processes relevant for eddy dissipation cannot be resolved even with 5km horizontal resolution, parameterizations are required to dissipate the energy. Typical parameterizations used in ocean models are bottom friction, vertical viscous dissipation and horizontal biharmonic dissipation. We analyse how these parameterizations are responsible for the simulated eddy energy dissipation. Dedicated sensitivity experiments estimate uncertainties arising from these parameterizations when typical friction parameters are modified. These experiments allow to assess the impact on the overall energy balance. Furthermore, we discuss how inertial and sub-inertial motions influence the overall energy dissipation. Overall, this study aims to provide the basis for future, more realistic diagnostics and parameterizations of the processes involved in eddy dissipation.
Protocol for an end-to-end evaluation of operational warning systems
Authors: Calvello Michele , Rianna Guido , Golding Brian
Published: March 2024

The contribution addresses, from a conceptual point of view, the complex issue of evaluating the performance of warning systems that are operating over large areas to cope with the risk posed by extreme weather events. In the protocol, the performance of the systems is evaluated, at each step in the warning production process, considering the “warning value chain” schematization developed in the HIWeather project of the World Meteorological Organization (http://hiweather.net/Lists/130.html). In a perfect warning chain, the warning received by the end user would contain precise and accurate information that perfectly met their need, contributed by each of the many players in the chain; in real warning chains, information, and hence value, are always lost as well as gained at each link in the chain (Golding 2022, https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-98989-7).The protocol is structured as a three-part evaluation process: 1) description of the system; 2) assessment of criticalities during high impact events; 3) routine assessment of daily operations. For each part, the protocol prescribes a set of must-do. The description of the warning system must be based on the schematic subdivision of the warning value chain, i.e., six main capabilities and outputs and five information exchanges elements. An important focus on the evaluation of an operational warning system must be devoted to high impact events. For such cases, the evaluation must include: essential information on the event; information on how each element of the warning value chain has been working during the event; synthetic assessment on the performance of the warning system. Finally, the routine assessment must include: identification of the system’s operational elements; identification of the areas covered by the system; identification of period for which to conduct the assessment and sources of data to be used; identification of appropriate and computable (considering the available data) performance indicators for the different elements of the warning value chain; analysis of relevant data for the chosen time period in the identified areas; evaluation of the performance of the different elements of the waring value chain; final judgment on the overall performance of the system.This study is being carried out within the Horizon Europe project “The HuT: The Human-Tech Nexus - Building a Safe Haven to cope with Climate Extremes” (https://thehut-nexus.eu/). The protocol has been developed considering two cases studies, and will be further put to test during the remaining part of the project. Through this action, detailed information from many different warning systems will be collected and used for a comparative study between warning systems operating, in different areas of the world, for different weather and climate related risks.
Constraining erosion rates and patterns for glaciated basins in the European Alps using thermoluminescence thermochronology 
Authors: Wenban William J. , Brown Nathan D. , Rhodes Edward J. , Swift Darrel A.
Published: March 2024

Rates and patterns of erosion by glaciers and their contribution to the evolution of tectonically active mountain topographies remain poorly understood. Insights from apatite fission track and (U-Th)/He thermochronometry have been restricted by minimum detectable cooling ages measured in millions of years that are relevant to the exhumation of bedrock from depths of upwards of c. 2 km, whilst cosmogenic nuclide concentration methods reveal the timing of removal of only the uppermost 2 m of bedrock, which is relatively superficial in glacial erosion terms. We have therefore applied the relatively new technique of K-feldspar thermoluminescence thermochronometry (Brown & Rhodes, 2022) that is capable of resolving near-surface cooling histories of bedrock over timescales spanning the most recent glacial-interglacial cycle. This very low-temperature thermochronometer permits analysis of exhumation from depths of several hundred metres upwards and is therefore sensitive to the erosion processes of specific components of the glacier system as well as the dynamism and significance of major erosional landforms. Results are presented from two currently glaciated valleys in the central European Alps that possess contrasting features and longitudinal valley profiles, and these suggest the ability to better understand glacial process contributions to mountain geomorphic development and to improve glacial erosion laws commonly used in numerical landscape evolution models. 
Response of forests in the Sierra Gorda of Queretaro to meteorological variability in the 21st century through remote sensing data and time series analysis
Authors: del Rio Maria S. , Cicuéndez Víctor , Yagüe Carlos
Published: March 2024

Remote Sensing (RS) is the most useful tool for monitoring forests at different temporal and spatial scales. The availability of long time series from RS indices, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), and meteorological data makes time series analysis an excellent methodology for studying forest intra-annual or interannual dynamics and their response to meteorological variability.RS is widely used in developed countries, however, this tool is essential for a sustainable management of the ecosystems also in developing countries of Iberoamerica. The Sierra Gorda Biosphere Reserve is one of the most important forested regions in Mexico, located in the center of the country, mostly in the state of Querétaro. The overall objective of this work is to study forest and shrubland dynamics of the Sierra Gorda in the state of Querétaro and their response to meteorological variability through time series analysis of remote sensing data of the last 23 years. Spectral indices (NDVI and EVI) have been obtained from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS, spatial resolution = 250 m), precipitation has been obtained from the Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS) (spatial resolution=5566 m), and temperature from DAYMET-V4 (spatial resolution=1 km).  Firstly, a univariable time series analysis of spectral indices, precipitation and temperature are made by means of the Buys-Ballot tables, i.e., average year, to study the intra-annual forest dynamics and then, using the autocorrelation function and the periodogram the interannual dynamics are assessed. Finally, the causality between spectral indices and meteorological data are studied by Granger causality tests.Preliminary results shows that spectral indices monitor adequately the different phenological dynamics of the different main forests and shrublands in the Sierra Gorda. Granger causality tests shows the different response of vegetation to precipitation and temperature. In conclusion, the different response of vegetation to meteorological variability is well represented by the dynamics of spectral indices. In the present, RS time series analysis is a novel technique for making a forest sustainable management and specifically, it allows determining the presence of trends, seasonality, cycles, or structural changes in the intra-annual or interannual forest dynamics.
Channel-floodplain connectivity drives vegetation dynamics in semiarid floodplains: a remote sensing analysis of the Naryn river corridor in Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia
Authors: Lauermann Magdalena , Betz Florian , Heckmann Tobias
Published: March 2024

 In the semiarid climate of Central Asia the rivers and their associated floodplain ecosystems have a high relevance as regional hotspots of biodiversity and for the provision of ecosystem services. One of these rivers is the Naryn River in Kyrgyzstan which is part of the headwaters of the Aral Sea basin. Upstream of the Toktogul Reservoir, which is the first barrier in the river course, the Naryn is still in a nearly natural state over a length of 600 km. The valuable floodplain habitats directly depend on the natural dynamics of this river. In particular rejuvenation and thus community structure of floodplain forests depends on the interaction of flow regime and hydromorphology controlled by longitudinal and lateral connectivity of water and sediment. Despite the ecological relevance, riparian ecosystems along the Naryn have not been investigated yet in detail. Especially the relative importance of the ecological and physical processes as well as anthropogenic effects on floodplain forest succession trajectories are not yet understood. This is a crucial issue for biodiversity conservation and environmental management as ongoing plans for additional dam construction are likely to heavily modify hydrologic and sediment connectivity. This is likely to have significant downstream impacts such as channel incision caused by sediment deficit or modification of the hydrological regime. The modifications therefore impact the current natural riparian ecosystem structure and functioning. In this study, we contribute to fill this knowledge gap and develop a conceptual succession model for this semiarid floodplain forest explaining the recent shape and distribution of habitat patterns. For this purpose, we use detailed ecological information derived from field data collected on 44 plots in the floodplain forest of the central Naryn basin together with river corridor scale remote sensing analysis using Sentinel-2 for detailed habitat derivation. These assessments are complemented by Landsat time series analysis with the LandTrendr segmentation algorithm to gain insights on large-scale spatio-temporal dynamics of vegetation and hydromorphology. Based on the results, we were able to determine the relevance of local morphology for longitudinal habitat patterns and to quantify the relationship between lateral connectivity and floodplain forest community structure at the scale of an entire river corridor. The conceptual model derived from the results explains the complex longitudinal and lateral pattern as well as the succession trajectories of floodplain forest communities along the Naryn River. It helps to better understand the natural processes and potential effects of anthropogenic activities to support forest and biodiversity conservation. In addition, it provides a basis for further research in other semiarid floodplain ecosystems.
Preferences on funding humanitarian aid and disaster management under climatic losses and damages: A multinational Delphi panel
Authors: Jäpölä Juha-Pekka , Van Schoubroeck Sophie , Van Passel Steven
Published: March 2024

Losses and damages from climate change and the frequency of extreme events will burden our global budgetary constraints and adaptive capacities. Scientific and analytical support for allocating public funding in humanitarian aid and disaster management to counter them involves determining the most pertinent criteria to use or where to design forecasting. Their priorities are often assumed, and assumptions can be ill-fitting. Thus, we asked the key users of such information for their preferences.
A two-round anonymous Delphi method utilising global frameworks for a funding allocation simulation was employed to survey the stated preferences of a stratified panel of losses and damages experts (N=36). They were experts from 19 countries of origin representing international organisations (e.g., United Nations, European Union, World Bank), the research sector, the public sector, and civil society (e.g., Save the Children, World Vision). The consensus was analysed with parametric measures.
We find that the near-future preference for magnitude-indicating criteria, such as people-centric and disaster risk-based, outweighs the importance of indicators related to governance, the rule of law, or a socio-economic aspect. Likewise, financing adaptation options to climate change-related risks to food security, human health, and water security are a high near-future priority for minimising losses and damages compared to, for example, risks to living standards or risks to terrestrial and ocean ecosystems. The covariance suggests that these priorities are an emergent preference in the losses and damages sector. Thus, it raises further questions on what we can and should prioritise with scarce resources.
Historical Climate Assessments in Panama
Authors: El Sharif Husayn , Cárdenas-Castillero Gustavo , Chougule Shivani , Georgakakos Aris , Pimento Juan
Published: March 2024

Panama is vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly the increase in ocean and atmospheric temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and rises in sea level. During the last decades, regional and local studies have reported a warming trend in the Central American region, including Panama. Temperature data from Central Panama indicate an increase of approximately 1°C since the 1970's. A 142-year precipitation record from the Panama Canal Authority shows a clear trend towards an increased frequency of severe storms and droughts during the last 25 years. The purpose of these historical climate assessments is twofold: first, to assess whether statistically significant climatic trends exist in the historical record (indicating that climatic change is occurring), and second, to establish climatic baselines against which to evaluate the consistency and relative change of future climate projections vis-à-vis the historical record. Historical climatic data includes precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and surface downwelling solar radiation (MJ/m2) from all existing ground stations in Panama.The significance of trends and other metrics of climatic change will be assessed through non-parametric statistical tests. Numerical trends will be developed and assessed for each and all climatic variables of interest for the 30 most recent years at different temporal and spatial scales. This analysis will be conducted on annual, monthly, and daily time scales and at the national, hydroclimatic region, province, and district spatial scales. In addition to the four climatic variables referenced above, trends will also be assessed for the following climatic indices at the same spatial scales referenced above: heat waves, annual drought duration, average and maximum rainfall deficit during annual droughts, biennial drought duration, and average and maximum rainfall deficit during biennial droughts. This historical weather data analysis is crucial for water management, water availability, Panama Canal operation, agriculture, and energy, helping Panamanian society quantify and manage climate risks.
The role of atmospheric circulation in extreme cold weather events over the Northern Hemisphere
Authors: Babaei Morteza , Graversen Rune Grand , Stoll Johannes Patrick
Published: March 2024

One significant and dangerous consequence of climate change is the growth in both the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events. The objective of this study is to examine the prevalent hypothesis that links Arctic amplification (AA) to the occurrence of cold weather extremes over the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in December–January–February (DJF). According to this hypothesis, AA alters the mid-latitude circulation, causing Rossby waves to become slower and wavier. More slow or wavy Rossby waves result in more persistent weather patterns in the mid-latitudes, potentially increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events.We examine the link between AA and cold spells in the Northern Hemisphere by using idealized simulations with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) and the fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis data (ERA5). We mimicked AA by adding a constant amount of downwelling longwave radiation (DLR) over the Arctic in the CESM slab-ocean model. Furthermore, we categorized ERA5 data into two separate periods: pre-Arctic amplification (1979–1999, Pre-AA) and post-Arctic amplification (2002–2022, Post-AA).We computed the speed of planetary waves based on geopotential height using two different methodologies. In the first method, the speed of planetary wave zonal propagation was estimated through the utilization of a top-ridge and bottom-trough tracking algorithm. In the second method, we calculated the zonal propagation speed of planetary waves at each grid point following Takaya and Nakamura (2001). Both methods, although being fundamentally different, showed a significant reduction in DJF average zonal planetary wave speed over Northen-midlatitude during AA in both reanalysis data and idealized simulations.The midlatitude extreme index (MEX) is used to identify cold weather extremes. On average, MEX showed a higher value for Pre-AA than Post-AA, consistent with a warmer climate in post-AA. However, the average wave speed during cold extremes is lower in Post-AA than Pre-AA.As regard wave amplitude, based on the difference between the maximum peak and the minimum bottom of the waves in both the ERA5 data and the idealized simulations, we cannot confirm a change in the amplitude of planetary waves due to AA.To summarize, Arctic amplification leads to a decrease in the speed of Rossby waves but little or no change in their amplitude. In addition, cold extremes are influenced by the deceleration of Rossby waves in response to warming conditions in the Arctic.
Chapman conference: Particle Precipitation: Drivers, Properties, and Impacts on Atmosphere, Ionosphere, Magnetosphere (AIM) Coupling – Feb 2025 at RMIT in Melbourne, AU
Authors: Breneman Aaron , Halford Alexa , Murphy Kyle , Nesse Hilde , Carter Brett , Blum Lauren , Kellerman Adam , Elliott Sadie , Walton Sam
Published: March 2024

Energetic particle precipitation (EPP) is one of the fundamental drivers of space weather in the coupled atmosphere-ionosphere-magnetosphere (AIM) system. These electrons and ions from the sun or the terrestrial magnetosphere, ranging in energy from hundreds of eV to GeV, precipitate into the atmosphere in response to enhanced topside (solar and magnetosphere) driving. They deposit their energy at a wide range of altitudes, enhancing ionization, and changing neutral temperature, density, and winds. During times of prolonged driving the resulting changes can adversely affect anthropogenic systems including disruption of communication and power systems, and increased satellite drag leading to orbital decay. In addition to its effects on space weather, EPP has been recognized as an important component of climate via its ability to indirectly destroy ozone, modifying local radiative balance in the middle and upper atmosphere. Despite the recognized importance of EPP to the AIM system, the way in which these two-way coupled systems interact is highly complex and remains poorly understood and constrained. Measurements from our current observational fleet are not able to fully capture EPP-driven AIM dynamics. As a result, we lack a fundamental understanding of many aspects of this coupled system, and models cannot be validated and are inhibited in their ability to forecast space weather. To compound this situation, different aspects of the AIM system are studied by the different communities with insufficient cross-community cooperation. Properly studying AIM dynamics, a societal level priority, requires a global systems science (holistic) approach to data collection, analysis, and modeling. This Chapman conference will bring together participants from the AIM communities to focus efforts on identifying and communicating outstanding issues, how models can bridge knowledge gaps, promising techniques for enhanced analysis, and required new types of observations.
Climate change effects of adaptation on annual and perennial crop yields in Uganda
Authors: Mulinde Catherine , Twinomuhangi Revocatus , Kato Edward , Majaliwa J. G. Mwanjalolo
Published: March 2024

Climate change impacts are expected to negatively affect crop productivity in several agricultural systems and agro-ecological zones of Africa, where the majority of the rural people derive their livelihood from rain-fed agriculture. In Uganda, mountainous and lake ecosystems are dominant growing areas for major annual and perennial crops, but are more susceptible to future changes in climate. This is likely to deteriorate agricultural livelihoods of these ecosystems through declining productivity of various crops. This study assessed the near-term future climate change effects of selected adaptation practices on yields of annual and perennial crops in coffee growing agro-ecological zones of Uganda. Based on a Cobb-Douglas logarithmic production function, the study examined whether future climate would increase crop productivity through the influence of adaptation practices at current and increased adoption levels in the near-term under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 for five climate regimes. The study results showed that rainfall changes, particularly wetter conditions (cool-wet and hot-wet climate regimes) are expected to be the most damaging to coffee, banana, maize and beans yields than temperature changes with drier conditions (including ensemble mean, cool-dry and hot-dry) under various altitude gradients. Hence, current adaptation practices have significant potential to reduce crop yield losses especially if future climate becomes drier than wetter in the near-term. The study therefore, recommends that there is a need for further research to identify complementary adaptation practices e.g. through bioengineering, soil loss control and water draining efficiency technologies; that would boost positive crop productivity effects of current adaptation practices, as they are not sufficient on their own in the near-term future even with enhanced adoption rates. Also, plant breeding programs should focus on generating crop varieties that are drought tolerant but can also perform well in volatile hydrological conditions; and those that are more suitable for the various altitudinal changes in climate.
A preliminary analysis of a crowdsourcing platform for participatory assessment of urban landscapes by university students using GIS
Authors: Mamassis Nikos , Ioannidis Romanos , Daskalakis Christos , Loukidis-Andreou Fotis , Zakynthinou-Xanthi Margarita , Gicquel Lucas , Samah--Ribeiro Lucile , Iliopoulou Filio , Sargentis G.-Fivos , Moraitis Kontantinos
Published: March 2024

The fields of information technology and geoinformatics have experienced rapid growth and widespread public adoption, with technologies like crowdsourcing facilitating advances in how the public can communicate with scientific communities and even contribute valuable data.However, there is still hesitation in actively engaging the public in environmental or landscape related studies. The start contract of availability of crowdsourcing technologies and lack of use thereof is particularly noticeable in university education, where the technological potential of smartphones, widely owned and used by students, remains largely untapped for educational and research purposes. This study is part of a larger exploration of the potential of engaging students in participatory georeferenced landscape assessment, aiming to advance relevant environmental research and also make education in landscape and architecture more interactive and synergistic.Starting from an initial theoretical investigation our work proceeded to the examination of the developed ideas in practice. A dedicated crowdsourcing mobile application was developed and tested as a pilot study with a small number of students, before proceeding to the inclusion of large numbers of students which is the end goal of the ARCHIMAP crowdsourcing project. This initial “test” targeted both potential practical challenges as well as software and generated-data related challenges. To this aim the Lycabettus hill and surrounding neighborhoods were investigated as a case study. Students were given the application and their interactions with it were recorded in detail, tracking their movement and location, recording their landscape and architecture assessments and evaluating the technical performance of the application.Other than the observation of technical and functional challenges the study also initiated a brief investigation of the potential utility of the results. This was carried out by implementing a conventional method of analysis of landscapes, the so called ULQI (Urban Landscape Quality Index) and investigating its correlation and potential synergy with the results submitted by the students through the novel crowdsourcing app for georeferenced landscape assessment.The results demonstrated that the developed app was both functional and useful and could therefore be shared to more students of NTUA, with expected benefits both for the educational processes but also for the scientific research of the institution on landscape quality.
Gamma-ray glows and terrestrial gamma-ray flashes produced by thunderstorm electrification without lightning 
Authors: Dwyer Joseph , Liu Ningyu
Published: March 2024

Terrestrial gamma-ray flashes (TGFs), powerful bursts of gamma-rays produced within our atmosphere, often occur in association with lightning. However, the mechanisms for generating the large number of runaway electrons required to account for the TGF luminosities remain uncertain. For example, TGFs might be produced by cold-runaway electron production from streamer heads and/or leader tips in the high-field regions near lightning, or TGFs might be produced by the self-sustained production of runaway electrons by relativistic feedback involving backward propagating runaway positrons and backscattered x-rays. Because both mechanisms could possibly occur in the presence of lightning leaders, it has been challenging to test which TGF production mechanisms are important. In this work, detailed simulations are used to test whether TGFs may be produced by thunderstorm electrification alone, without the presence if lightning. It is found that rapid thunderstorm charging may first produce strong gamma-ray glows, followed by large pulses of gamma-rays, followed by multi-pulsed TGFs similar to the TGFs first observed by CGRO/BATSE. Furthermore, the ionization produced by the high-energy particles partially discharges the electric field in some regions while amplifying the field in other regions, potentially allowing for the initiation of narrow bipolar events (NBEs) and/or lightning. If confirmed, such sequence of events would be strong evidence for the relativistic feedback mechanism.
Examining the natural nitrogen biogeochemical cycling and impacts across South African ecosystems
Authors: Garland Rebecca M. , Naidoo Mogesh , Altieri Katye , Dlamini Phesheya , Feig Gregor , Jaars Kerneels , Sekhohola Lerato , van Zyl Pieter , Muthelo Nomsa , Leroko Jabulile , Sakwe Pelenomi , Hamilton Tamryn , van Niekerk Tiaan , Bixirao Neto Marinho Pedro , Smart Kathleen
Published: March 2024

The biogeochemical nitrogen (N) cycle in South Africa is influenced by, and in turn influences a number of crucially important global change processes. However, the natural N cycling in South Africa is not well-understood. The “Emissions, deposition, impacts - Interdisciplinary study of N biogeochemical cycling (EDI-SA)” project is working to improve our baseline understanding of the natural biogeochemical cycling of N in non-industrialized ecosystems across South Africa. This includes quantifying N fluxes from emissions through to deposition, identifying linkages between N cycling and related species such as sulphur (S) and ozone, and evaluating ecosystem impacts. Previous work has focused on the impact of atmospheric deposition of N and S species on ecosystems at sites almost exclusively on the industrialized Highveld. This has left large gaps of knowledge in the biogeochemical cycling and ecosystem impacts, particularly within the diverse natural ecosystems found across South Africa. In order to address this gap, EDI-SA is applying a more holistic approach using measurements (from two South African Research Infrastructures; EFTEON and BIOGRIP) and modelling to investigate multiple linkages within the biogeochemical cycling of N with a focus on improving the understanding of the natural cycling. The project is applying a variable resolution sampling approach to investigate processes which occur at multiple spatial scales, and applying multiple measurement techniques including atmospheric measurements, stable isotope analysis of aerosol particles, rainwater and soil, and analysis of soil chemistry and biology. This contribution will detail the approach of this interdisciplinary project, highlight results from the first soil and air sampling campaigns, as well as the atmospheric composition modelling that assesses the relative importance and impacts of N emissions from soil across South Africa. This baseline understanding will allow future research to assess the potential changes to N biogeochemical cycling into the future in a changing climate.  
Quantifying the Australian monsoon since the Last Glacial Maximum using downscaled models
Authors: Lowry Andrew , McGowan Hamish
Published: March 2024

The Australian continent spans tropical to extra-tropical latitudes with corresponding variety of temperature and precipitation. In the tropical north of Australia, the monsoon and resultant precipitation is critical for agriculture and human habitation. The timing of monsoon onset and duration of the monsoon season is therefore an essential piece of information for understanding the hydroclimate of northern Australia. The present-day monsoon onset, defined as the reversal of lower tropospheric winds, occurs on 24 December ± 15 days, and the average duration of the monsoon season is 80 days. The areal extent of the monsoon is also a critical aspect of the hydroclimate, with a poleward penetration of monsoon precipitation improving agricultural and habitation conditions.The present day northern Australian monsoon has been widely studied. The palaeo-monsoon, however, has rarely been studied and never using downscaled climate models. Here we present the first results from such modelling of the timing of monsoon onset, duration, and extent for three time slice simulations: 6000 BP, 12000 BP, and 21000 BP. These results are compared to a pre-industrial control simulation (1850) and NCEP data for 1991 – 2021. The simulations were performed using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with initial and boundary conditions taken from the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Both models were adjusted for the appropriate greenhouse gas concentrations, insolation, and land-sea distribution.
Overcoming Big Data Challenges in Satellite Observation: A Variable Resolution Scheme for Modeling Land Surface Phenology
Authors: Smith Owen , Gao Xiaojie , Gray Josh
Published: March 2024

As the volume of satellite observation data experiences exponential growth, our ability to process this data and extract meaningful insights is struggling to keep pace. This challenge is particularly pronounced when dealing with dynamic and variable phenomena across diverse spatiotemporal scales. Achieving accurate representation of these nuances necessitates data generation at high spatial and temporal resolutions, resulting in significant redundancy in computation and storage.This issue is notably evident in the case of products that monitor plant phenology over time, which are crucial for assessing the impacts of climate change and monitoring agriculture. Computational complexities often limit these products to coarse resolutions (500m-1km) or short time frames, distorting our understanding of phenology across scales. In contrast, various approaches in hydrology and land surface modeling have utilized tiled grids and meshes to capture spatial heterogeneity and reduce dimensionality for complex modeling. This is accomplished through decomposing or aggregating modeling surfaces into response units representative of system drivers and have been shown to enable improved computational capabilities while still maintaining accurate approximations. We believe that similar modeling techniques can be leveraged to enable phenological modeling at higher resolutions. Building on these advancements, we develop a variable resolution scheme to represent land surface heterogeneity for modeling Land Surface Phenology (LSP) and decompose Landsat and Sentinel-2 Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) into adaptive areal units. Through this method we operationalize the Bayesian Land Surface Phenology (BLSP) model, a hierarchical Bayesian algorithm capable of constructing LSP data for the complete Landsat archive. While BLSP produces highly valuable results, it faces computational challenges for large-scale applications as its current time series approach necessitates each pixel to be computed individually. Our innovative approach reduces the dimensionality of modeling LSP by an order of magnitude to improve computational efficiency and enable the production of a 30 m BLSP product. These improvements are key to provide a region wide long-term phenometrics product at 30m resolution necessary to support studies into the long-term changes at a fine scale.
Unveiling Spatio-Temporal Patterns of Water Temperature in Lake Balaton Through Remote Sensing Data Analysis
Authors: Li Huan
Published: March 2024

Climate change is an inevitable phenomenon that has a great impact on the physical, chemical, and biological effects on water bodies, among which water temperature is a key parameter that needs to be closely monitored. As the largest lake in Central Europe, Lake Balaton provides important recreational and ecological values that could be affected by global warming and anthropogenic activities, which lacks comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis. Our study leverages multisource data on Google Earth Engine (GEE) to conduct a temperature variation analysis over two decades and detailed spatial variations across different parts of the lake, with in-situ data serving as both auxiliary and validation source. With an accuracy of 1.6 °C and a seasonal quantile difference within 1 °C, the satellite-based observations are in good agreement with the in-situ measurements. In the inter-annual analysis, water temperature increases at 0.7 ℃/decade, closely paralleling the 0.6 ℃/decade rise in air temperature, with more notable warming in annual minimum and winter temperatures, particularly in the shallowest basin. For intra-annual temperature analysis, we propose a cumulative temperature anomaly method to examine temperature variations in each month, which shows distinct change patterns between different basins. This implies that during warmer months, the western, shallower regions exhibit relatively higher temperatures, while in cooler months, the deeper, eastern areas show elevated temperatures. Water depth has high correlations with seasonal temperature of the entire lake. In near-coast areas, windspeed induces cooling effects, while artificial surfaces contribute to water warming. The GEE user interface provides easy access for scientists and the public, and the open-source code can be readily customized to other lakes.
Bioswales as potential sinks for tyre wear particle pollution
Authors: Comer-Warner Sophie , Scott John , Best Jim , Carr Keith , Krause Stefan
Published: March 2024

Microplastics are known to be ubiquitous throughout the Earth’s ecosystems, with plastics found everywhere from terrestrial soils to deep ocean trenches. Much of the research to date has focussed on microplastics typically found in, for example, plastics bags, disposable utensils and food containers, with a large focus on marine microplastics. Recently, tyres have been identified as major sources of microplastics to the environment, due to the synthetic rubber they contain. Currently, estimates of the tyre microplastic burden in the environment suggest up to a third of marine microplastics and a third of terrestrial microplastics are tyre wear particles. Despite an increase in tyre wear research we still lack knowledge and understanding of the fate, transport and dynamics of tyre wear particles in the environment. Here, we investigate the role of green infrastructure, specifically bioswales, on the fate of tyre wear from road runoff. We present data from bioswales constructed in 2010, which were subsequently sampled in 2011, 2015 and 2023, providing a temporal record of tyre wear in the bioswales. We analysed samples from two bioswales (wet versus dry) to determine if there is an advantage of different bioswale designs to act as a sink of tyre wear particles. Samples were taken within the bioswale from upstream of the culvert inflow pipe, at various points down the bioswale and upstream of the bioswale outflow. These sampling sites were selected to provide information on potential transport through the bioswale, including whether bioswales are acting as sinks for tyre wear particles and if areas of preferential settling upstream of check dams produce increased rates of settling and trapping of tyre wear particles compared to other areas. The total mass of styrene-butadiene rubber and natural rubber in the samples was analysed using pyrolysis-gas chromatography-mass spectrometry, particle count, size and morphology were determined using optical microscopy. This study aims to determine whether bioswales can be used to effectively remediate tyre wear pollution from road runoff and the best design for this potential storage.