bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Variability of Tibetan Spring Snow and Its Associations with the Hemispheric Extratropical Circulation and East Asian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: An Observational Investigation
Authors: Zhao Ping , Zhou Zijiang , Liu Jiping
Published: August 2007

Using station observations of the number of days covered by snow (SCD) and snowfall over the Tibetan Plateau (TP), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis, and precipitation from rain gauge stations in China for the period of 1973–2001, temporal/spatial variations of SCD over the TP and its associations with the hemispheric extratropical atmospheric circulation and East Asian summer monsoon rainfall are investigated.

An increase of spring (April–May) SCD over the TP is associated with decreases of local tropospheric temperature and geopotential height in the spring and early summer (June). The anomalies in the tropospheric temperature and geopotential height show a westward propagation from the TP to western Asia as a result of the westward propagation of the anomalous wave energy. These tropospheric anomalies over the TP are connected with changes in the hemispheric extratropical atmospheric circulation along the westerly jet stream that acts as a waveguide.

The increase of the spring SCD is also associated with the variation of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall. Soil moisture in May–June might act as a bridge linking the spring snow anomaly and the subsequent summer monsoon. Corresponding to the increase of SCD, there is a significant decrease of the June 500-mb geopotential height from the TP to the western North Pacific. Meanwhile, the anomalous northeasterlies extend from Japan, through the east coast of China, to central-eastern China, which weaken the East Asian summer monsoon, leading to a decrease of surface air temperature and rainfall in the Yangtze and Hwai Rivers and an increase of rainfall in southeastern China.

Additionally, the spring SCD anomaly is likely due to a variation of local synchronous snowfall, rather than previous winter SCD conditions. The spring SCD is not related to previous winter El Niño/La Niña events, but is associated with the equatorial central and eastern Pacific sea surface temperature from the subsequent summer through winter. The climatic implications for this relationship are not clear.
Investigation of the Summer Climate of the Contiguous United States and Mexico Using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Part I: Model Climatology (1950–2002)
Authors: Castro Christopher L. , Pielke Roger A. , Adegoke Jimmy O.
Published: August 2007

Fifty-three years of the NCEP–NCAR Reanalysis I are dynamically downscaled using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to generate a regional climate model (RCM) climatology of the contiguous United States and Mexico. Data from the RAMS simulations are compared to the recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), as well as observed precipitation and temperature data. The RAMS simulations show the value added by using a RCM in a process study framework to represent North American summer climate beyond the driving global atmospheric reanalysis. Because of its enhanced representation of the land surface topography, the diurnal cycle of convective rainfall is present. This diurnal cycle largely governs the transitions associated with the evolution of the North American monsoon with regards to rainfall, the surface energy budget, and surface temperature. The lower frequency modes of convective rainfall, though weaker, account for rainfall variability at a remote distance from elevated terrain. As in previous studies with other RCMs, RAMS precipitation is overestimated compared to observations. The Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) is also well represented in both RAMS and NARR, but the Baja LLJ and associated gulf surges are not.
A Bayesian Regression Approach for Predicting Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Central North Pacific
Authors: Chu Pao-Shin , Zhao Xin
Published: August 2007

In this study, a Poisson generalized linear regression model cast in the Bayesian framework is applied to forecast the tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the central North Pacific (CNP) in the peak hurricane season (July–September) using large-scale environmental variables available up to the antecedent May and June. Specifically, five predictor variables are considered: sea surface temperatures, sea level pressures, vertical wind shear, relative vorticity, and precipitable water. The Pearson correlation between the seasonal TC frequency and each of the five potential predictors over the eastern and central North Pacific is computed. The critical region for which the local correlation is statistically significant at the 99% confidence level is determined. To keep the predictor selection process robust, a simple average of the predictor variable over the critical region is then computed. With a noninformative prior assumption for the model parameters, a Bayesian inference for this model is derived in detail. A Gibbs sampler based on the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method is designed to integrate the desired posterior predictive distribution. The proposed hierarchical model is physically based and yields a probabilistic prediction for seasonal TC frequency, which would better facilitate decision making. A cross-validation procedure was applied to predict the seasonal TC counts within the period of 1966–2003 and satisfactory results were obtained.
A New Methodology for Estimating the Unpredictable Component of Seasonal Atmospheric Variability
Authors: Kumar Arun , Jha Bhaskar , Zhang Qin , Bounoua Lahouari
Published: August 2007

Predictability limits for seasonal atmospheric climate variability depend on the fraction of variability that is due to factors external to the atmosphere (e.g., boundary conditions) and the fraction that is internal. From the analysis of observed data alone, however, separation of the total seasonal atmospheric variance into its external and internal components remains a difficult and controversial issue. In this paper a simple procedure for estimating atmospheric internal variability is outlined. This procedure is based on the expected value of the mean square error between the observed and the general circulation model simulated (or predicted) seasonal mean anomaly. The end result is a spatial map for the estimate of the observed seasonal atmospheric internal (or unpredictable) variability. As improved general circulation models become available, mean square error estimated from the new generation of general circulation models can be easily included in the procedure proposed herein, bringing the estimate for the internal variability closer to its true estimate.
Characterization of the Diurnal Cycle of the West African Monsoon around the Monsoon Onset
Authors: Sultan Benjamin , Janicot Serge , Drobinski Philippe
Published: August 2007

This study investigates the diurnal cycle of the West African monsoon and its seasonal modulation with particular focus on the monsoon onset period. A composite analysis around the monsoon onset date is applied to the 1979–2000 NCEP–DOE reanalysis and 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) at 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC. This study points out two independent modes describing the space–time variability of the diurnal cycle of low-level wind and temperature. While the first mode appears to belong to a gradual and seasonal pattern linked with the northward migration of the whole monsoon system, the second mode is characterized by more rapid time variations with a peak of both temperature and wind anomalies around the monsoon onset date. This latter mode is connected with the time pattern of a nocturnal jet reaching its highest values around the onset date.

The diurnal cycle of dry and deep convection is also investigated through the same method. A distinct diurnal cycle of deep convection in the ITCZ is evidenced with a peak at 1200 UTC before the monsoon onset, and at 1800 UTC after the monsoon onset. Strong ascending motions associated with deep convection may generate a gravity wave that propagates northward and reaches the Saharan heat low region 12 h later. The diurnal cycle of the dry convection in the Saharan heat low is similar during the preonset and the postonset periods with a peak at night (0000 UTC) consistent with the nocturnal jet intensification. This convection is localized at 15° and 20°N before and after the monsoon onset, respectively. Both during the first rainy season in spring and the monsoon season in summer, the nocturnal jet brings moisture in the boundary layer north of the ITCZ favoring humidification and initiation of new convective cells, helping the northward progression of the ITCZ. At the end of the summer the southward return of the ITCZ is associated with the disappearance of the core of the monsoon jet.

Despite a lot of similarities between the results obtained using NCEP–DOE and ERA-40 reanalyses, giving confidence in the significance of these results, some differences are identified, especially in the diurnal cycle of deep convection, which limit the interpretation of some of these results and highlight discrepancies in the reanalyses.
Intraseasonal Teleconnection between the Summer Eurasian Wave Train and the Indian Monsoon*
Authors: Ding Qinghua , Wang Bin
Published: August 2007

This study investigated the most recurrent coupled pattern of intraseasonal variability between midlatitude circulation and the Indian summer monsoon (ISM). The leading singular vector decomposition (SVD) pattern reveals a significant, coupled intraseasonal variation between a Rossby wave train across the Eurasian continent and the summer monsoon convection in northwestern India and Pakistan (hereafter referred to as NISM). The wave train associated with an active phase of NISM rainfall displays two high pressure anomalies, one located over central Asia and the other over northeastern Asia. They are accompanied by increased rainfall over the western Siberia plain and northern China and decreased rainfall over the eastern Mediterranean Sea and southern Japan. The circulation of the wave train shows a barotropic structure everywhere except the anomalous central Asian high, located to the northwest of India, where a heat-induced baroclinic circulation structure dominates. The time-lagged SVD analysis shows that the midlatitude wave train originates from the northeastern Atlantic and traverses Europe to central Asia. The wave train enhances the upper-level high pressure and reinforces the convection over the NISM region; meanwhile, it propagates farther toward East Asia along the waveguide provided by the westerly jet. After an outbreak of NISM convection, the anomalous central Asian high retreats westward. Composite analysis suggests a coupling between the central Asian high and the convective fluctuation in the NISM. The significance of the midlatitude–ISM interaction is also revealed by the close resemblance between the individual empirical orthogonal functions and the coupled (SVD) modes of the midlatitude circulation and the ISM.

It is hypothesized that the eastward and southward propagation of the wave train originating from the northeastern Atlantic contributes to the intraseasonal variability in the NISM by changing the intensity of the monsoonal easterly vertical shear and its associated moist dynamic instability. On the other hand, the rainfall variations over the NISM reinforce the variations of the central Asian high through the “monsoon–desert” mechanism, thus reenergizing the downstream propagation of the wave train. The coupling between the Eurasian wave train and NISM may be instrumental for understanding their interaction and can provide a way to predict the intraseasonal variations of the Indian summer monsoon and East Asian summer monsoon.
A Climatology of Heat Waves from a Multimillennial Simulation
Authors: Hunt B. G.
Published: August 2007

A 10 000-yr unforced simulation with the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Mark 2 coupled global climatic model has been used to investigate the occurrence of heat waves over the globe. Results are presented for both seasonal (summer mean) and daily heat waves. Geographical distributions of the occurrence rates of these heat waves are shown for various magnitudes of surface temperature anomalies. The heat waves have specific geographical preferences with regions where relatively frequent, intense, and long-lasting heat waves occur. Time series over all 10 000 yr of the heat waves for the selected model grid boxes illustrate the differing temporal variabilities at these locations, as well as identifying the occurrences of extreme heat waves. To this end, the observed European heat wave of 2003 was simulated remarkably well in its overall characteristics; it occurs once in this simulation. Heat waves for various continental locations are shown to occur as isolated spatial and temporal events, and not as part of larger-scale systems over continental-size domains, suggesting stochastic forcing as a contributor to the initiation of the heat waves. Regional plots of selected heat waves at monthly intervals illustrated the considerable spatial variability, progression, and variation in the intensity of the heat waves. Comparison of year-long daily surface temperature anomalies for heat-wave years for simulated and observed conditions at individual model grid boxes indicated substantial agreement, while spatial plots permitted the progress of a short-term heat wave over the United States to be followed. Multidecadal time series plots of intense heat waves also showed basic similarities between the simulation and observations, despite the brevity of the latter. The simulated time series suggest that more extreme heat waves than currently are observed, owing to the brevity of the observations, may be a possibility as a consequence solely of natural variability. An examination of the physical processes associated with a heat wave showed mutually consistent climatic relationships, such that a heat wave was associated with reduced rainfall and consequently reduced soil moisture content, evaporation, and cloud cover, and increased insolation at the surface. These combined changes created the surface temperature increase intrinsic to the heat wave. All heat waves examined for different regions experienced negative rainfall anomalies prior to a heat wave. The cause of these rainfall anomalies was not readily apparent. While an ENSO influence on heat waves is shown to exist in the simulation, not all ENSO events produce heat waves, suggesting that stochastic influences may determine when a major heat wave occurs in conjunction with these events. The limitations of the adequacy of the model ENSO may, however, have had an influence in this regard.
Observational Analysis of the Predictability of Mesoscale Convective Systems
Authors: Jirak Israel L. , Cotton William R.
Published: August 2007

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) have a large influence on the weather over the central United States during the warm season by generating essential rainfall and severe weather. To gain insight into the predictability of these systems, the precursor environments of several hundred MCSs across the United States were reviewed during the warm seasons of 1996–98. Surface analyses were used to identify initiating mechanisms for each system, and North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data were used to examine the environment prior to MCS development. Similarly, environments unable to support organized convective systems were also investigated for comparison with MCS precursor environments. Significant differences were found between environments that support MCS development and those that do not support convective organization. MCSs were most commonly initiated by frontal boundaries; however, features that enhance convective initiation are often not sufficient for MCS development, as the environment needs also to be supportive for the development and organization of long-lived convective systems. Low-level warm air advection, low-level vertical wind shear, and convective instability were found to be the most important parameters in determining whether concentrated convection would undergo upscale growth into an MCS. Based on these results, an index was developed for use in forecasting MCSs. The MCS index assigns a likelihood of MCS development based on three terms: 700-hPa temperature advection, 0–3-km vertical wind shear, and the lifted index. An evaluation of the MCS index revealed that it exhibits features consistent with common MCS characteristics and is reasonably accurate in forecasting MCSs, especially given that convective initiation has occurred, offering the possibility of usefulness in operational forecasting.
Analysis of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific for 2000 and 2001*
Authors: Fu Bing , Li Tim , Peng Melinda S. , Weng Fuzhong
Published: August 2007

High-resolution satellite data and NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data are used to analyze 34 tropical cyclone (TC) genesis events in the western North Pacific during the 2000 and 2001 typhoon seasons. Three types of synoptic-scale disturbances are identified in the pregenesis stages. They are tropical cyclone energy dispersions (TCEDs), synoptic wave trains (SWTs) unrelated to preexisting TCs, and easterly waves (EWs). Among the total 34 TC genesis cases, 6 are associated with TCEDs, 11 cases are associated with SWTs, and 7 cases are associated with EWs. The analyses presented herein indicate that the occurrence of a TCED depends on the TC intensity and the background flow, with stronger cyclones and weaker background easterlies being more likely to induce a Rossby wave train. Not all Rossby wave trains would lead to the formation of a new TC. Among the 11 SWT cases, 4 cases are triggered by equatorial mixed Rossby–gravity waves. Cyclogenesis events associated with EWs are identified by the westward propagation of the perturbation kinetic energy and precipitation fields. For all three types of prestorm disturbances, it seems that scale contraction of the disturbances and convergence forcing from the large-scale environmental flow are possible mechanisms leading to the genesis. Further examination of the remaining 10 genesis cases with no significant prior synoptic-scale surface signals suggests three additional possible genesis scenarios: 1) a disturbance with upper-tropospheric forcing, 2) interaction of a preexisting TC with southwesterly monsoon flows, and 3) preexisting convective activity with no significant initial low-level vorticity. Tropical intraseasonal oscillations have a significant modulation on TC formation, especially in 2000.
SHIPS-MI Forecast Analysis of Hurricanes Claudette (2003), Isabel (2003), and Dora (1999)
Authors: Jones Thomas A. , Cecil Daniel J.
Published: August 2007

Three hurricanes, Claudette (2003), Isabel (2003), and Dora (1999), were selected to examine the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with Microwave Imagery (SHIPS-MI) forecast accuracy for three particular storm types. This research was conducted using model analyses and tropical cyclone best-track data, with forecasts generated from a dependent sample. The model analyses and best-track data are assumed to be a “perfect” representation of the actual event (e.g., perfect prog assumption). Analysis of intensity change forecasts indicated that SHIPS-MI performed best, compared to operational SHIPS output, for tropical cyclones that were intensifying from tropical storm to hurricane intensity. Passive microwave imagery, which is sensitive to the intensity and coverage of precipitation, improved intensity forecasts during these periods with a positive intensity change contribution resulting from above normal inner-core precipitation. Forecast improvement was greatest for 12–36-h forecasts, where the microwave contribution to SHIPS-MI was greatest. Once a storm reached an intensity close to its maximum potential intensity, as in the case of Isabel and Dora, both SHIPS and SHIPS-MI incorrectly forecast substantial weakening despite the positive contribution from microwave data. At least in Dora’s case, SHIPS-MI forecasts were slightly stronger than those of SHIPS. Other important contributions to SHIPS-MI forecasts were examined to determine their importance relative to the microwave inputs. Inputs related to sea surface temperature (SST) and persistence–climatology proved to be very important to intensity change forecasts, as expected. These predictors were the primary factor leading to the persistent weakening forecasts made by both models for Isabel and Dora. For Atlantic storms (Claudette and Isabel), the contribution from shear also proved important at characterizing the conduciveness of the environment toward intensification. However, the shear contribution was often small as a result of multiple offsetting shear-related predictors. Finally, it was observed that atmospheric parameters not included in SHIPS, such as eddy momentum flux, could substantially affect the intensity, leading to large forecast errors. This was especially true for the Claudette intensity change forecasts throughout its life cycle.
The Environmental and Inner-Core Conditions Governing the Intensity of Hurricane Erin (2001)
Authors: Jones Thomas A. , Cecil Daniel J. , Dunion Jason
Published: August 2007

The evolution of Hurricane Erin (2001) is presented from the perspective of its environmental and inner-core conditions, particularly as they are characterized in the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme with Microwave Imagery (SHIPS-MI). Erin can be described as having two very distinct periods. The first, which occurred between 1 and 6 September 2001, was characterized by a struggling tropical storm failing to intensify as the result of unfavorable environmental and inner-core conditions. The surrounding environment during this period was dominated by moderate shear and mid- to upper-level dry air, both caused in some part by the presence of a Saharan air layer (SAL). Further intensification was inhibited by the lack of sustained deep convection and latent heating near the low-level center. The authors attribute this in part to negative effects from the SAL. The thermodynamic conditions associated with the SAL were not well sampled by the SHIPS parameters, resulting in substantial overforecasting by both SHIPS and SHIPS-MI. Instead, the hostile conditions surrounding Erin caused its dissipation on 6 September. The second period began on 7 September when Erin re-formed north of the original center. Erin began to pull away from the SAL and moved over 29°C sea surface temperatures, beginning a rapid intensification phase and reaching 105 kt by 1800 UTC 9 September. SHIPS-MI forecasts called for substantial intensification as in the previous period, but this time the model underestimated the rate of intensification. The addition of inner-core characteristics from passive microwave data improved the skill somewhat compared to SHIPS, but still left much room for improvement. For this period, it appears that the increasingly favorable atmospheric conditions caused by Erin moving away from the SAL were not well sampled by SHIPS or SHIPS-MI. As a result, the intensity change forecasts were not able to take into account the more favorable environment.
The Effect of Probabilistic Information on Threshold Forecasts
Authors: Joslyn Susan , Pak Karla , Jones David , Pyles John , Hunt Earl
Published: August 2007

The study reported here asks whether the use of probabilistic information indicating forecast uncertainty improves the quality of deterministic weather decisions. Participants made realistic wind speed forecasts based on historical information in a controlled laboratory setting. They also decided whether it was appropriate to post an advisory for winds greater than 20 kt (10.29 m s−1) during the same time intervals and in the same geographic locations. On half of the forecasts each participant also read a color-coded chart showing the probability of winds greater than 20 kt. Participants had a general tendency to post too many advisories in the low probability situations (0%–10%) and too few advisories in very high probability situations (90%–100%). However, the probability product attenuated these biases. When participants used the probability product, they posted fewer advisories when the probability of high winds was low and they posted more advisories when the probability of high winds was high. The difference was due to the probability product alone because the within-subjects design and counterbalancing of forecast dates ruled out alternative explanations. The data suggest that the probability product improved threshold forecast decisions.
Consensus of Numerical Model Forecasts of Significant Wave Heights
Authors: Woodcock Frank , Greenslade Diana J. M.
Published: August 2007

The operational consensus forecast (OCF) scheme uses past performance to bias correct and combine numerical forecasts to produce an improved forecast at locations where recent observations are available. Here, OCF uses past observations and forecasts of significant wave height from five numerical wave models available in real time at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. In addition to OCF, different adaptive weighting and forecast combination strategies are investigated. At deep-water sites (ocean depth > 25 m), all of the interpolated raw model forecasts outperformed 24-h persistence and, after bias correction, one model was clearly best. Significant improvements over raw model significant wave height forecasts were achieved by bias correction, linear-regression methods, and combination strategies. The best forecasts were obtained from a “composite of composites” in which models with highly correlated errors were combined before being included in the performance-weighted bias-corrected forecast. This technique slightly outperformed the linear-regression-corrected best model. At shallow-water sites (ocean depth < 25 m), all raw models perform poorly relative to the 24-h persistence. The composited, corrected forecasts significantly improved on raw model significant wave height forecasts but only slightly outperformed the 24-h persistence. The raw models generated unrealistically large biases that tended to be amplified with larger observed values of significant wave height.
A Quantitative Analysis of the Enhanced-V Feature in Relation to Severe Weather
Authors: Brunner Jason C. , Ackerman Steven A. , Bachmeier A. Scott , Rabin Robert M.
Published: August 2007

Early enhanced-V studies used 8-km ground-sampled distance and 30-min temporal-sampling Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) infrared (IR) imagery. In contrast, the ground-sampled distance of current satellite imagery is 1 km for low earth orbit (LEO) satellite IR imagery. This improved spatial resolution is used to detect and investigate quantitative parameters of the enhanced-V feature. One of the goals of this study is to use the 1-km-resolution LEO data to help understand the impact of higher-resolution GOES data (GOES-R) when it becomes available. A second goal is to use the LEO data available now to provide better severe storm information than GOES when it is available. This study investigates the enhanced-V feature observed with 1-km-resolution satellite imagery as an aid for severe weather warning forecasters by comparing with McCann’s enhanced-V study. Therefore, verification statistics such as the probability of detection, false alarm ratio, and critical success index were calculated. Additionally, the importance of upper-level winds to severe weather occurrence will be compared with that of the quantitative parameters of the enhanced-V feature. The main goal is to provide a basis for the development of an automated detection algorithm for enhanced-V features from the results in this study. Another goal is to examine daytime versus nighttime satellite overpass distributions with the enhanced-V feature.
Warm Season Mesoscale Superensemble Precipitation Forecasts in the Southeastern United States
Authors: Cartwright T. J. , Krishnamurti T. N.
Published: August 2007

With current computational limitations, the accuracy of high-resolution precipitation forecasts has limited temporal and spatial resolutions. However, with the recent development of the superensemble technique, the potential to improve precipitation forecasts at the regional resolution exists. The purpose of this study is to apply the superensemble technique to regional precipitation forecasts to generate more accurate forecasts pinpointing exact locations and intensities of strong precipitation systems. This study will determine the skill of a regional superensemble forecast out to 60 h by examining its equitable threat score and its false alarm ratio. The regional superensemble consists of 12–60-h daily quantitative precipitation forecasts from six models. Five are independent operational models, and one comes from the physically initialized Florida State University regional spectral model. The superensemble forecasts are verified during the summer 2003 season over the southeastern United States using merged River Forecast Center stage-IV radar–gauge and satellite analyses. Precipitation forecasts were skillful in outperforming the operational models at all model times. Precipitation results were stratified by time of day to allow detections of the diurnal cycle. As expected, warm season daytime precipitation is commonly forced by convection, which is difficult to accurately model. Major synoptic regimes, including subtropical highs, midlatitude troughs/fronts, and tropical cyclones, were examined to determine the skill of the superensemble under various synoptic conditions.
Sociology Back to the Publics
Authors: Ossewaarde Marinus
Published: August 2007

This article is a reading of the `new sociology' that is mainly identified with the works of C. Wright Mills and Alvin Gouldner. Its main argument is that during the past 40 years the new sociology gave back a public face to sociology. This distinguishes it from the `old sociology' that had not been able to free itself from `private' social values. It is argued that Mills' power elite and Gouldner's coming crisis theses provided the foundation for a common enterprise among many `new sociologists' to develop a critical and public sociology that would seek to shape what Mills called the `democratic society of publics'.`New sociologists' share a critique of modern societies, namely, that though most modern societies have formal democracies, a substantial democratic social structure of publics is often lacking, due to the erosion of the public sphere by private values.
Sociological Engagements: Institutional Racism and Beyond
Authors: Murji Karim
Published: August 2007

The concept of institutional racism emerged in 1967, the same year that this journal began. This first part of the article traces the origins and context of the term in the black power movement of the 1960s. Its subsequent adoption by sociology shows its engagement with issues of race and racism, though sociology itself became the object of critique for its understanding and explanation of racial inequalities. Links and differences between the USA and Britain are used to reflect on the different public roles of their national sociological associations. The second section draws on the example of the Macpherson inquiry and its difficulty in conceptualizing institutional racism. This shows that sociology's public role is contested and that trying to develop a public voice through the media is challenging. Overall, while focusing on some of the problems for developing public sociology, the article argues that confronting such problems is essential for the vitality of the discipline.
Sociology and Postcolonialism: Another `Missing' Revolution?
Authors: Bhambra Gurminder K.
Published: August 2007

Sociology is usually represented as having emerged alongside European modernity. The latter is frequently understood as sociology's special object with sociology itself a distinctively modern form of explanation. The period of sociology's disciplinary formation was also the heyday of European colonialism, yet the colonial relationship did not figure in the development of sociological understandings. While the recent emergence of postcolonialism appears to have initiated a reconsideration of understandings of modernity, with the development of theories of multiple modernities, I suggest that this engagement is more an attempt at recuperating the transformative aspect of postcolonialism than engaging with its critiques. In setting out the challenge of postcolonialism to dominant sociological accounts, I also address `missing feminist/queer revolutions', suggesting that by engaging with postcolonialism there is the potential to transform sociological understandings by opening up a dialogue beyond the simple pluralism of identity claims.
White Faces, Black Faces: Is British Sociology a White Discipline?
Authors: Wakeling Paul
Published: August 2007

In promoting its public profile, sociology must be mindful of the face it presents. Whilst ethnicity is a key sociological concept, little is understood about the ethnicity of sociologists or sociology students. Recent attention on a purported black `brain drain' to the USA charged UK sociology with hypocrisy for identifying ethnic differences elsewhere but failing to put its own house in order, implicitly alleging that the public face of sociology is white. Ethnic differences in sociology are investigated using extensive datasets about UK graduates and postgraduate students for 2001/2 to 2004/5.The findings indicate ethnic-group differences between first-degree graduates and postgraduates in sociology. `Rational' choice and Bourdieusian interpretations of these differences are discussed in the context of sociology's status as a subject in the academy and the labour market. Charges of hypocrisy are not proven, but neither is the discipline exonerated of myopia concerning its own ethnic composition.
Bringing War Home: Foreign Policy-Making in Multicultural Societies
Authors: Hill Christopher
Published: August 2007

The debates about multiculturalism, and the democratic conduct of foreign policy, need bringing systematically together. A comparison of state approaches to cultural diversity helps us to understand their interrelationship. For different reasons, neither the United States nor France has experienced a direct link between multiculturalism and foreign policy, as Britain has, but each has the potential to do so. The complexities of social composition, and the growing overlaps between the domestic and international realms, mean that all three states need to revise significantly their understanding of the balance between efficiency and accountability in foreign policy-making, not least because civil peace and international peace are now connected in previously unimaginable ways. It should, nonetheless, be possible to rework practices and principles to allow the state to protect the interests of society as a whole without either scapegoating an internal minority or giving it special privileges.
Engaging Foucault: Discourse, Liberal Governance and the Limits of Foucauldian IR
Authors: Selby Jan
Published: August 2007

This article provides a critical survey of the appropriation of the work of Michel Foucault within poststructuralist IR. Foucault has thus far been employed within poststructuralist IR in three ways: to support deconstructions of realist international theory; to analyse modern discourses and practices of international politics; and to develop novel accounts of the contemporary global liberal order. I argue that the first and the third of these usages are especially problematic. Utilised for the critique of realism, Foucault's main emphases have consistently been overlooked or misrepresented. By contrast, when `scaled up' to inform analyses of world order, Foucault's work has ended up supporting essentially liberal accounts of international politics. There are, I argue, clear limits to the use of Foucault in theorising international and world politics, and given this I conclude that if Foucault is to be used more effectively within IR, his work needs to be situated within a framework — I suggest a Marxist one — which is cognisant both of the structural dimensions of power, and of the specificity and irreducibility of the international.
Roundtable: `The Future of the Discipline'
Authors: Brown Chris , Kennedy-Pipe Caroline , Linklater Andrew , Booth Ken
Published: August 2007

In this roundtable, four scholars talk about different aspects of the future of the discipline. The occasion for the debate on 21 July 2006, before a large audience of invited academics and students, was the opening of a purpose-built new home for the Department of International Politics at the University of Wales, Aberystwyth — the world's first such department. Below are printed edited versions of the presentations of Professor Chris Brown (Head of the Department of International Relations at LSE, and former Chair of the British International Studies Association, BISA), Professor Caroline Kennedy-Pipe (then Chair of BISA, and Professor of International Relations at the University of Sheffield), Professor Andrew Linklater (the tenth Woodrow Wilson Professor at the Department of International Politics, University of Wales, Aberystwyth), and Professor Ken Booth (former Head of Department at the University of Wales, Aberystwyth, former Chair of BISA and E. H. Carr Professor).
John H. Herz: Balancing Utopia and Reality
Authors: Hacke Christian , Puglierin Jana
Published: August 2007

John H. Herz's model of the `security dilemma' is regularly cited in textbooks and has become common usage among students of international relations. In contrast, the full range of his work on international politics has received little attention. Nevertheless, his work deserves substantial reassessment, for three main reasons: first, Herz contributed significantly to the emergence and development of realism in the 1950s, most notably through his concept of `Realist Liberalism'. Second, the development of Herz's ideas paradigmatically reflects the `pilgrimage' of a German-Jewish émigré to the US, who witnessed and analysed almost all of the twentieth century, and a little beyond. Third, Herz was a pioneer in understanding that the new global challenges could not be overcome with classic realist instruments and in accepting the centrality of `non-realist' insights.
Exploring the Environmental Consequences of Tourism: A Satellite Account Approach
Authors: Jones Calvin , Munday Max
Published: August 2007

This article demonstrates how selected environmental consequences of tourism consumption relating to carbon emissions and waste can be quantified using a tourism satellite account (TSA), and an environmental module associated with an input-output framework. We move beyond the basic identification of the environmental effects of tourism consumption and seek to measure them. We show the types of information that can be derived from the framework, the applicative difficulties of reconciling tourism consumption to environmental outcomes, and explore the practical usage of the framework adopted. We believe that steps taken in the case to examine selected environmental effects of tourism consumption have a universal relevance for tourism policy makers.
Non-rational compliance with social norms: sincere and hypocritical
Authors: Gagné Learry
Published: August 2007

English

Jon Elster has suggested that social norm compliance cannot be explained using rational-choice theory alone, as it also involves emotional motivations. We propose to expand on this proposition by adding another extra-rational aspect. According to Pierre Bourdieu, non-rational compliance earns greater group approval than interested compliance. We model this insight by stating that social norms contain an injunction not to comply rationally. The article begins with a study of motivations underlying social norm compliance, including “hypocritical compliance”, or rational compliance disguised as sincere and disinterested. This part is followed by a critique of the “economy of esteem” model. We introduce in the third part the concept of “hypocritical equilibrium”, in which most agents pretend to comply non-rationally while feigning not to notice that most others do the same. This kind of equilibrium is sustained by esteem-seeking and self-deception. The fourth part is an application of our model to dueling norms. We then conclude by looking at alternative models. Our aim is to show that, in social norm compliance, taking motivations seriously can yield explanations that strict rational-choice models cannot produce.

French

Selon Jon Elster, le conformisme aux normes sociales ne peut pas s’expliquer uniquement par la théorie du choix rationnel, car il met en jeu des motivations de nature émotionnelle. Nous proposons d’aller au delà de cette proposition en y ajoutant un autre aspect en dehors de la rationalité. Pour Pierre Bourdieu, le conformisme non rationnel est mieux accepté par le groupe que le conformisme intéressé. Nous modélisons cette idée en stipulant que les normes sociales contiennent une injonction à ne pas agir de façon rationnelle. L’article commence par une étude des motivations qui sous-tendent le conformisme aux normes sociales, y compris le “conformisme hypocrite”, qui est un conformisme rationnel déguisé en conformisme désintéressé. Nous présentons ensuite une critique du modèle de l’“économie de l’estime”. Dans la troisième partie, nous introduisons le concept d’“équilibre hypocrite”, où la plupart des agents font semblant de se conformer de manière désintéressée tout en ignorant délibérément les comportements semblables d’autrui. Ce genre d’équilibre se maintient par la recherche d’estime et l’illusion sur soi-même. Dans la quatrième partie, nous appliquons notre modèle aux normes régissant le duel, et nous concluons avec un survol de modèles alternatifs. Notre but est de montrer que, dans le champ normatif, prendre les motivations au sérieux peut nous offrir des explications que les modèles rationnels stricts ne peuvent donner.
Réflexions sur la réflexivité en sociologie
Authors: Hamel Jacques
Published: August 2007

English

This article considers the reflexivity that arises from the “individualization of social life,” which is the result of changes in current societies and which, for example, forces sociology to consider its purpose at a new cost. How exactly is individuality to be defined from this perspective? What status is to be conferred on the statements of individuals who are operating in such a framework? Having defined precisely to what reflexivity corresponds, the author seeks to qualify the theses currently held on this topic, as illustrated by the theories of P. Bourdieu and A. Giddens, which provide an opportunity to conceive of common sense as practical knowledge and individuality as the mediation required to attain the social. The reflexivity of sociology is finally addressed in order to show that today, sociological knowledge fuels the practical knowledge that individuals mobilize to make sense, at their own level, of what they are and what they do.

French

Cet article envisage la réflexivité surgie de l “individualisation de la vie sociale” née des mutations des sociétés actuelles et qui, par exemple, oblige la sociologie à concevoir son objet à nouveaux frais. Comment définir exactement l’individualité dans cette perspective? Quel statut conférer aux propos des individus qui évoluent dans ce cadre? Après avoir cerné ce à quoi correspond exactement la réflexivité, l’auteur cherche à nuancer les thèses en vogue sur le sujet en prenant pour illustration les théories de P. Bourdieu et d’A. Giddens qui lui permettent de concevoir le sens commun comme connaissance pratique et l’individualité comme médiation obligée pour atteindre le social. La réflexivité de la sociologie est finalement abordée afin de montrer que, de nos jours, la connaissance sociologique alimente la connaissance pratique que mobilisent les individus pour, à leur niveau, rendre raison de ce qu’ils sont et de ce qu’ils font.
Niko Tinbergen's life and work: a new approach to biology
Authors: Mysterud Iver
Published: August 2007

English

The life and work of the eminent ethologist and Nobel laureate Nikolaas Tinbergen (1907—1988) played an essential role in the introduction of a new approach that is transforming the scientific understanding of animal behaviour, human nature and evolution. This article focuses on an extremely well-written biography of him, Niko's Nature, by Hans Kruuk, one of Tinbergen's former students. Niko's Nature is more than a biography: it is a presentation and an evaluation of the main lines of European ethology and behaviour research in the 20th century up to the 1980s. Tinbergen suffered from depression most of his adult life, and if he had been a child today, he probably would have been diagnosed as hyperactive (ADHD). Tinbergen fits into a pattern of lifelong fatty-acid deficiency. I also discuss other possible causes of his problems (like protein intolerance, vitamin deficiency, genetics and novel environmental factors) and speculate how Tinbergen would have approached such issues if he were alive today.

French

La vie et l’oeuvre de Nikolaas Tinbergen (1907–1988), éthologue éminent et Prix Nobel, ont été essentielles pour l’apparition d’une approche nouvelle dans la compréhension scientifique du comportement animal, de la nature humaine et de l’évolution. Ce texte commente une biographie de Tinbergen écrite par l’un de ses anciens étudiants Hans Kruuk, Niko’s Nature. Niko’s Nature est plus qu’une simple biographie, il s’agit en fait d’une présentation et d’une évaluation des principaux courants de l’éthologie et de la recherche comportementale en Europe au 20ème siècle, jusqu’aux années 1980. Durant toute sa vie d’adulte, Tinbergen a souffert de dépression et s’il avait été enfant de nos jours, il aurait probablement été diagnostiqué comme enfant hyperactif (THADA). Tinbergen semble correspondre à un schéma de déficience durable en acides gras. L’auteur évoque aussi d’autres pistes explicatives (comme l’intolérance aux protéines, la déficience en vitamines, la génétique, l’apparition de nouveaux facteurs environnementaux) et s’interroge sur la façon dont Tinbergen aurait approché l’étude de ces questions s’il était encore vivant.
Time in the Age of Complexity
Authors: Dennis Kingsley
Published: August 2007

Technically mediated forms of interconnectivity and communication are sustaining complex arrangements through which are emerging more dynamic and interdependent physical-digital relations. This article examines the intensification of time through the lens of complexity theory and argues that increasingly networked infrastructures are moving towards an integrated global complexity in real-time. I suggest that shifts in physical-digital temporality are having a significant effect upon how the `social' is being reconfigured.
Changing Youth Labour Markets, Welfare Institutions and Young People's Control over Working Time
Authors: Harsløf Ivan
Published: August 2007

The objective of this article is to examine the ways in which young people's control over working time is related to phenomena originating in recent trends in European youth labour markets such as the rise in temporary employment and the increasing importance of active labour market policies. The heuristic concept of social chronotopy is introduced to capture the interrelatedness of social time and social space, considering how the value of young people's working time is dependent upon their own contractual status, and the market and welfare institutional context in which they find themselves. In comparative multilevel analyses of survey data, self-reported control over working time is found to be adversely affected by being temporarily employed and finding oneself in a national context of low income replacement for unemployed youth and being confronted with a troublesome youth labour market characterized by the lack of jobs, the lack of permanent jobs, and the lack of spending on active labour market policies.