Distribution and risk profile of atrial fibrillation patterns among women and men from the general population
Authors: Tilly M J , Lu Z , Geurts S , Ikram M A , De Maat M P M , Ikram M K , De Groot N M S , Kavousi M 
Published: October 2021

Background

In a clinical setting, atrial fibrillation (AF) subgroups are defined, including paroxysmal, persistent, and permanent AF. These subgroups differ in terms of clinical characteristics, management strategy, and long-term outcomes. Application of clinical classifications in population-based settings is challenging as they are based on the duration of symptoms, recurrence, and treatment.

Purpose

We aim to develop an objective and standardized classification for AF patterns in the general population and examine the associated cardiovascular risk profiles and outcomes for the identified AF patterns.

Methods

Participants with only one reported AF episode were categorized as single-documented AF, if at least two separate AF episodes were reported as multiple-documented AF and as longstanding persistent AF if at least two consecutive ECG's at the research center showed AF, not followed by an ECG showing sinus rhythm. We fitted mixed effect models with age as time scale to characterize sex-specific cardiovascular risk factor trajectories preceding each AF pattern. We further used Cox proportional hazard modelling to describe the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure (HF), stroke, and all-cause mortality following AF.

Results

We included 14,620 men and women aged ≥45 years. 1137 participants were categorized as single-documented AF, 208 as multiple-documented AF, and 57 as longstanding persistent AF. We identified significant differences in the preceding trajectories of weight, body mass index, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, waist circumference, hip circumference, and waist-hip ratio with various AF patterns. In general, both men and women with persistent-elevated levels of these risk factors were prone to longstanding persistent AF.

AF was associated with a large risk for subsequent CHD, HF, stroke, and mortality in the general population. Among the different AF patterns, single-documented AF conferred the largest risk of CHD [hazard ratio, 95% confidence interval: 1.92 (1.19–3.03)] and mortality [1.70 (1.41–2.07)] as compared to multiple-documented AF, and as compared to longstanding persistent AF [1.45 (0.72–2.90) and 3.66 (2.25–5.95), respectively].

Conclusion

We developed a classification for AF patterns within a general population. We identified differences in risk factor trajectories preceding each AF pattern, which implies differences in pathophysiological mechanisms underlying AF. Participants with single-documented AF showed worse prognosis than those with multiple AF episodes. This might be due to the subgroup definition, since participants should live for a longer period of time to be categorized in the multiple-documented AF and longstanding persistent AF groups. This can also imply that participants suffering from multiple AF episodes are more frequently monitored, and treated for other risk factors. However, this could also suggest that singular AF episodes are not as innocent as commonly thought.

Funding Acknowledgement

Type of funding sources: Public hospital(s). Main funding source(s): - Erasmus MC Mrace grant. - Netherlands Organization for the Health Research and Development (ZonMw) Figure 1Figure 2. Progosis of various AF patterns