Investigating the impact of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone on children’s health: Children’s Health in London and Luton (CHILL): Protocol for a prospective parallel cohort study
Authors: Colligan Grainne , Tsocheva Ivelina , Scales James , Chavda Jasmine , Dove Rosamund , Kalsi Harpal , Wood Helen , Cross Louise , Newby Chris , Hall Amy , Keating Mia , Petrovic Kristian , Day Bill , Crichlow Cheryll , Keighley Amanda , Thomson Ann , Tomini Florian , Balkwill Fran , Mihaylova Borislava , Grigg Jonathan , van Sluijs Esther , Fletcher Monica , Mon-Williams Mark , Wright John , Beevers Sean , Randhawa Gurch , Eldridge Sandra , Sheikh Aziz , Gauderman James , Kelly Frank , Mudway Ian S , Griffiths Christopher J 
Published: February 2021

Introduction

Air pollution harms health across the life course. Children are at particular risk of adverse effects during development, which may impact on health in later life. Interventions that improve air quality are therefore urgently needed not only to improve public health now, but to prevent longer-term increased vulnerability to chronic disease. Low Emission Zones are a public health policy intervention aimed at reducing traffic-derived contributions to urban air pollution, but evidence that they deliver clear health benefits is lacking. We established a natural experiment design study (CHILL: Children’s Health in London and Luton) to evaluate the impacts of the introduction of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) on children’s health.

Methods and analysis

CHILL is a prospective two-arm parallel longitudinal cohort study of children aged 6-9 years, attending primary schools in Central London (the focus of the first phase of the ULEZ) and Luton (a comparator site). The primary goal of the study is to examine the impact of changes in annual air pollutant exposures as oxides of nitrogen, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter less than 2.5microns and 10microns (NOx, NO2, PM2.5, PM10 respectively) across the two sites on lung growth, measured as forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC), over four consecutive years. Secondary outcomes being investigated include a range of respiratory health indicators as well as inequality and health economic measures.

Ethics and dissemination

Ethics approval has been given by Queen Mary University of London Research Ethics Committee (ref 2018/08). Dissemination will target audiences through a variety of channels, including research papers, conference and media presentations, web summaries and social media. CHILL is funded by National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Public Health Research (Ref 16/139/09) with additional funding by Natural Environment Research Council, NIHR CLAHRC North Thames, NIHR ARC North Thames, and the Mayor of London. ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04695093

Strengths and limitations of this study

Strengths

CHILL uses a prospective parallel cohort design, allowing robust conclusions to be drawn on the impact of the ULEZ - a major city-wide air quality mitigation strategy - on air quality and children’s respiratory health.

CHILL study cohorts include children from large and ethnically diverse populations living in urban areas characterised by poor air quality.

Limitations

Attrition of study cohort population over time, although this has been accounted for in the original design of the study.

Potential diminution of the ULEZ air pollution signal due to pre-compliance with ULEZ restrictions in the run up to the introduction of the scheme in Central London on the 8th April 2019, and minor impacts of other pollution mitigation measures.

Added complexity of accounting for effects of COVID-19 and related lockdowns on traffic flows, air quality and children’s health.