bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Synergistic Approach to Robustly Reconstruct Eruption Plume Dynamics: Application to Campi Flegrei, Italy
Authors: Martinez Montesinos Beatriz , Suzuki Yujiro J , Mingari Leonardo , Costa Antonio
Published: March 2024

Explosive volcanic eruptions can inject high quantities of magmatic materials into the atmosphere representing a risk to life and society. To quantify the potential impacts of a future eruption or to forecast what will happen in the next few hours when a volcano is erupting, atmospheric dispersion models are commonly used providing important information for civil protection and other stakeholders. Spatiotemporal distributions of volcanic ash in volcanic plumes are used as an input by a numerical simulation of tephra dispersal and are called eruption source parameters (ESPs). They have been poorly constrained and therefore their variation between models affects volcanic tephra hazard assessment. Since the goodness of ESPs increases with knowledge of the dynamics of eruptive columns, reconstruction of volcanic columns from past eruptions will improve the assessment of volcanic hazards for future eruptions.In this work we take advantage of recent advances in computational capabilities and modeling in order to robustly reconstruct the dynamics of eruption columns from past eruptions. We do that by applying a synergistic approach between atmospheric dispersion models capable of reproducing the transport of volcanic ash due to atmospheric wind, eruption cloud dynamics models that resolve the ascending and the horizontal spreading of umbrella cloud, and inversion methods able to estimate ESPs using geological data information of tephra deposits.Specifically, we use the latest version of the ash dispersal model FALL3D that allows us to determine EPSs by inverting field data using the novel GNC (Gaussian with non-negative constants) ensemble-based inversion method, and the eruption cloud dynamics model SK-3D that accurately resolves the turbulence of the volcanic plumes.As an application, we focus on Campi Flegrei (CF) caldera, in Italy. CF is currently a densely populated area under busy air traffic routes where the monitoring system of the Vesuvius Observatory highlights some variations in the state of the volcanic activity. CF has generated several explosive eruptions in recent geological times, including the ~39 ka Campanian Ignimbrite (CI) super-eruption that is the largest explosive eruption in Europe in the last 200 ka. To reconstruct the CI super-eruption and assess such a huge eruption in CF, we apply our methodology to the geological data associated with this eruption.
Effects of peat inversion on carbon balance and GHG emissions in agricultural peatland
Authors: Takriti Mounir , Gunathilake Miyuru , Rivedal Synnøve , Kløve Bjørn , Dörsch Peter
Published: March 2024

The need to mitigate climate change has shifted practices and policy towards restoration and sustainable use of agricultural peatlands as a means to protect carbon (C) stores and other ecosystem services. However, a significant percentage of peatlands in Europe are still maintained under drainage and in use as agricultural land, resulting in continuing loss of soil organic C and CO2 emissions. Mineral soil addition has been used in different regions to improve the agronomic performance of agricultural peatlands, with conflicting effects on GHG emissions reported in the literature. In Norway, “peat inversion” has been employed since the 1970s as an alternative drainage method. Under peat inversion, previously drained peat is covered with a layer of mineral soil excavated from underneath the peat. It has been proposed that peat inversion protects C stores by limiting aerobic decomposition. Data from previous field trials indicate that peat inversion reduces oxygen content in the peat during dry conditions and reduces CH4 emissions under poor drainage conditions. However, the effect on C-budgets, i.e., the balance of gross primary production and ecosystem respiration, remains unknown. We present results from an ongoing study comparing peat inversion with conventional drainage in a peatland used for grass production in Western Norway. Chamber flux measurements are used in combination with continuous measurements of meteorological and soil conditions, as well as biomass exports, to establish annual C budgets. Preliminary results indicate that peat inversion reduces ecosystem respiration under dry conditions without reducing overall productivity. 
Exploring multi-century sea level rise commitments from 21st century cumulative emissions to inform minimum coastal adaptation needs
Authors: Nauels Alexander , Nicholls Zebedee , Klönne Uta , Hermans Tim , Mengel Matthias , Smith Christopher J. , Palmer Matthew D.
Published: March 2024

It is crucial to explore multi-century sea level responses under different emissions scenarios despite underlying physical uncertainties that rapidly increase over time, because resulting coastal risks fully manifest only on these longer timescales. Here, we use a set of climate and sea level emulators to investigate sea level rise commitments out to 2300 for cumulative emission levels at the start of every remaining 21st century decade under the five illustrative SSP-RCP scenarios. Our results indicate that emissions until 2030 “lock in” around 1.0 m (66% model range: 0.8 to 1.3 m) of global mean sea level rise in 2300 relative to 1995-2014. Under an intermediate emissions scenario roughly in line with current climate policies (SSP2-4.5), median 2300 global mean sea level commitments for cumulative emissions in 2050 (1.2 m) and 2100 (1.7 m) would be around 0.1 m and 0.6 m higher than under a very low emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9). Global results are also downscaled to selected regional sites and highlight that particularly vulnerable regions like low-lying Pacific Islands will experience higher local committed sea level rise than the global average. By attributing projected sea level rise commitments in 2300 to different cumulative emission levels in the 21st century, the study aims to more clearly link mitigation efforts in the near term to longer term coastal risk and to inform minimum adaptation requirements under different climate futures.
Dyke-impounded fresh groundwater resources on volcanic islands: learning from the Canary Islands (Spain)
Authors: Marazuela Miguel Angel , Baquedano Carlos , Cruz-Pérez Noelia , Martínez-León Jorge , Laspidou Chrysi , Santamarta Juan Carlos , García-Gil Alejandro
Published: March 2024

Freshwater in coastal and island aquifers is a valuable resource whose availability is strongly conditioned by heterogeneity. More than 80 % of the Earth’s surface is of volcanic origin, but the effect of volcanic dykes on the geometry of the saline interface that separates freshwater from seawater is still underexplored. This paper analyses the impact of volcanic dykes on the depth of the saline interface in coastal and island aquifers and, subsequently, on the availability of fresh groundwater. Hydrogeological and hydrochemical data from a gallery, perpendicularly crossing several tens of dykes, were integrated with numerical modelling on the volcanic island of El Hierro (Canary Islands, Spain). Measured hydraulic heads demonstrated that the presence of dykes increased the hydraulic gradient by more than an order of magnitude, with respect to an adjacent area not affected by dykes. Numerical assessment confirmed that the lower the hydraulic conductivity of the dykes, the greater the depth of the saline interface inland. This impact led to fresh groundwater reserves increasing inland, relative to a hypothetical case without dykes. Numerical simulations also demonstrated that dykes can prevent salinization of production wells in coastal and island aquifers, if they are correctly located. Locating production wells far enough inland in an area affected by dykes allowed a higher freshwater extraction rate than if dykes did not exist; near the coastline, the effect tended to be the opposite. These results will be key to improving the management of fresh groundwater resources in coastal volcanic aquifers, and especially on volcanic islands such as the Hawaiian Islands or the Macaronesian archipelagos.
Assessing the interactions between extreme weather systems and the marine environment in the Mediterranean Sea     
Authors: Jangir Babita , Reale Marco , Menna Milena , Mishra Alok Kumar , Martellucci Riccardo , Cossarini Gianpiero , Salon Stefano , Mauri Elena , Strobach Ehud
Published: March 2024

In this study, the impacts of a specific class of extreme weather systems in the Mediterranean region (Medicanes) on the physical and biogeochemical parameters of the marine environment are thoroughly investigated. A comprehensive analysis based on 14 systems that occurred between 2007 and 2021 was carried out, with a specific focus on the impact on the different regions of the Mediterranean Sea (MS). The analysis showed some consistent patterns in the response of the marine environment to the passage of the system: surface concentrations of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), phytoplankton, nutrients, and oxygen tend to increase above the MLD, while temperature tends to decrease. Significant increments of these parameters were observed in the presence of Warm Core Eddies (WCEs) and Cold Core Eddies (CCEs). The interaction with WCEs enhanced the intensity of the weather system and related mixing and upwelling in the upper layer, leading to the increase in Chl-a, phytoplankton, and oxygen concentrations .. Cyclone-induced local mixing injects nutrients into the ocean’s upper layer that can drive significant phytoplankton blooms. Moreover, strong winds frequently lead to a drop in sea surface temperature (SST), which is a key factor in primary productivity. The analysis of mean sea level pressure (MSLP) and wind speed (WS) along the path of the cyclones revealed a sudden drop (rise) in MSLP and rise (drop) in WS at WCEs (CCEs) locations. It is observed that a few medicanes, such as Zissi, Anton, and Xandra, show exceptional behavior. Among them, Zissi exhibited an exceptionally high translational speed. The fast evolution of Zissi resulted in limited interaction with the underlying ocean, which is responsible for its unique characteristics during the event.
Biocalcification for slope reinforcement against internal erosion : results of experimental laboratory works and presentation of real case applications.
Authors: Esnault Filet Annette , Sapin Leslie
Published: March 2024

Soletanche Bachy has developed and patented an innovative soil reinforcement method based on a natural biological process leading to the formation of calcite in situ, called Biocalcis®. This process is adapted for being applied in different soils and hydraulic conditions, including on hydraulic structures where continuous hydraulic flow is encountered. The mitigation of internal erosion is necessary to prevent damages on the infrastructure or the slope due to mechanical failures. Biocalcis treatment presents the advantage not to significantly change the overall permeability of the treated area and therefore avoid the risk of material sealing and waterproofing. Results obtained at sample scale during the frame of BOREAL project will be presented, during which four different erosion test devices have been used: Contact Erosion Test, Hole Erosion Test, Jet Erosion Test and Suffusion test. The resistance of untreated and treated soils will be detailed. The treated soils were obtained after injection of biocalcification in laboratory columns or inside large physical models using real site materials. All the test results indicate a strong increase of erosion resistance from a small percentage of added calcite (~2- 4%) that is easily achievable on real sites with the process. The presentation will also show examples of applications on real sites using different implementation methods. Environmental and durability aspects will also be addressed.
Marine radiocarbon reservoir age simulations for the past 50000 years revisited
Authors: Butzin Martin , Lohmann Gerrit
Published: March 2024

Prior to about 14 ka BP, the most recent radiocarbon (14C) calibration curve IntCal20 is based on a combination of terrestrial and marine 14C archives. To gain insight into the spatio-temporal evolution of the involved marine 14C records and their systematic 14C concentration differences from the atmosphere, IntCal20 has considered marine reservoir age (MRA) simulations of the LSG ocean general circulation model. The LSG model was not fully coupled to the atmosphere and did not include a prognostic sea ice component. Instead, it applied various stadial and interstadial climate boundary conditions to assess upper and lower bounds of past climate variations and the associated effects on past MRAs. Here, we present results of new long-term MRA simulations which overcome this limitation. We apply the Earth system model of intermediate complexity CLIMBER-X which we have equipped with ∆14C and noble gas tracers. CLIMBER-X is forced with insolation, greenhouse gas concentrations, and continental ice sheets. Radiocarbon is prescribed in the atmosphere according to IntCal20. While the new simulations confirm some of the LSG model results at the global scale, there are considerable regional differences. For example, we find weaker inhibition of marine 14CO2 uptake in the presence of sea ice and hence lower polar MRAs than the LSG model. Moreover, we find that continental ice sheet forcing affects MRAs at the ocean-basin scale. This is particularly the case during the last deglaciation for which some meltwater discharge reconstructions could be questioned according to our results.
Projecting Extreme Rainfall in Sicily: Integrating Simple Scaling and Hourly Projections into Depth-Duration-Frequency Analysis
Authors: Buonacera Gaetano , Peres David J. , Palazzolo Nunziarita , Cancelliere Antonino
Published: March 2024

In this present work, we propose a robust methodology for the derivation of future rainfall depth-duration-frequency curves (DDFs), utilizing hourly projections, the assumption of simple scaling of precipitation, and the application of the method of moments for parameter estimation in dimensionless precipitation height distributions. The methodology introduced herein involves the application of change factors derived from climate projections to precipitation averages across various durations (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 hours) and to the dimensionless moments of the precipitation series. To implement this methodology, we leverage regional scale models (RCM) from the EURO-CORDEX initiative, characterized by hourly temporal resolution. The direct utilization of hourly projection data allows to bypass the necessity for temporal disaggregation techniques. Change factors are calculated through an analysis of annual maxima derived from both future and control series (1971-2000) generated via RCMs. We consider two distinct emission scenarios, namely RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) 4.5 and 8.5, spanning three future periods: near future (2021-2050), middle future (2051-2070), and far future (2071-2100). Our methodology is applied to multiple rain gauges located across the Sicily region. The outcomes of our investigation underscore an upward trend in future DDFs, particularly pronounced in the RCP 4.5 scenario and during the far future period. This trend is attributed to an observed intensification in the variability of rainfall events. Depending on the specific geographic location, chosen emission scenario, and future time period, future Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves may correspond to return periods that more than double those observed in the control climate. The methodology, given the easy availability of the exploited data, can turn useful for updating hydrological design criteria for flood mitigation.  

 
IoT monitoring and reanalysis data of soil moisture and rainfall for landslide warning: a test case
Authors: Menichini Rosa , Pecoraro Gaetano , Calvello Michele
Published: March 2024

Shallow rainfall-induced landslides are triggered by intense or prolonged rainfall. Warning models employed within territorial landslides early warning systems (Te-LEWS) are typically based on rainfall thresholds expressed in terms of cumulative rainfall or average intensity with respect to the duration of the rainfall event, completely neglecting antecedent conditions. However, recent studies demonstrated that introducing, directly or by means of models, the effects of antecedent soil moisture content in empirical thresholds can improve the performance of the warning models.This preliminary study focuses on the definition of a pilot monitoring site that produces rainfall and soil moisture data measured by an Internet of Things (IoT) monitoring network and by the use of analogous reanalysis products (i.e., ERA5-Land dataset). The activities are being developed in the context of the Horizon Europe project “The HuT: The Human-Tech Nexus - Building a Safe Haven to cope with Climate Extremes”. The final aim is to use IoT monitoring of rain and soil moisture, combined with reanalysis data, to improve, at municipal level, the territorial warning procedures already existing and operational at regional level.The test site has been installed within the Campus of the University of Salerno in Fisciano, Campania region (Italy) since February 2023. The pilot site has been instrumented with sensors monitoring soil moisture from different providers and with a weather station; the sensors have been installed at different depths and with different procedures. The collected data were analyzed and processed using various data analysis algorithms, with the aim of: i) establishing correlations between the local weather conditions and the hydrologic soil response; ii) make a comparison between the data collected from different providers and in different local conditions.Establishing these relationships allowed to evaluate the peculiarities and reliability of the different sensors and to identify the best configuration for future in-situ installations. More generally, this study highlights the importance of developing a monitoring network based on diffuse low-cost sensors and a proper real-time data transmission, analysis and processing, in order to provide further knowledge to system managers of territorial warning systems in the analysis of the monitoring data, and thus support for their decisions before and during extreme weather conditions.
Distribution and Morphometry of Large Supraglacial Channels on Five Antarctic Ice Shelves
Authors: Chen Jiao , Hodge Rebecca , Jamieson Stewart , Stokes Chris
Published: March 2024

Supraglacial channels play a crucial role in glacial hydrology by transporting meltwater across ice sheets and ice shelves. Despite their importance, recent research has tended to focus on the storage of supraglacial meltwater (e.g., in lakes), and our understanding of the distribution and connectivity of channels is more limited, particularly in Antarctica. Here we investigate large supraglacial channels (i.e., width > 20 m) on five contrasting ice shelves in Antarctica during the melt seasons of 2020 and 2022. Supraglacial channels are mapped by applying an automated delineation method to Landsat-8 satellite imagery, and various metrics are calculated to comprehensively describe their fluvial morphometry. Results show that supraglacial channels are extensive on all five ice shelves, forming a total of 119 channel networks with significantly different drainage patterns. Channel networks exhibit relatively simple structures but large in extent and occur on low ice surface slopes (
Data Exchange with the Research Sector - the World Meteorological Organization Perspective
Authors: Croitoru Adina-Eliza
Published: March 2024

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) approved the Unified Data Policy in 2022, and different groups are working on its implementation under the coordination of the Commission for Observation, Infrastructure and Information Systems  (INFCOM), through the Focus Group on Data Exchange Policy. The WMO Research Board coordinates the actions on data exchange with the research sector through a dedicated Task Team: Task Team on Data Exchange with the Research Sector (TT DERS). The TT DERS’ main activities aim to accomplish section #4 of the WMO Resolution: Members should provide without charge access to all recommended data to public research and education communities for non-commercial activities. They consist of: i. Consultation with research communities dealing with weather, climate, water, cryosphere, and atmospheric composition on data exchange availability; ii. Involvement of research communities to monitor implementation and identify problems/opportunities; iii. Identification of case studies or use cases to be documented as best practice exemplars; iv. Outreach to National Meteorological and Hydrological Services on the benefits of data exchange with the research and academia.Preliminary analysis revealed that:Reasons for not sharing the data at the national/regional/international level are different from one region/country to another: lack of data, personnel to organise the data basis, or infrastructure to store/pre-process the database, national data sharing policy and regional geopolitical sensitivities;
There are big differences in approach for freely sharing the data in neighbouring countries;
Access to hydrological data is more critical than weather and climate data;
Access to observation data, especially for the old period for which they are not in a digital format, is quite limited.
WMO can support the Member States in exploring the possibility of integrating data from other sources when data are missing, developing the capacity and infrastructure, or providing recommendations to agree the national regulations with the WMO resolution.In some situations, especially in developing countries, no particular reason for not sharing the data with the research community was identified. Thus, we assumed there was no will to share the data rather than objective limitations in doing it. Under these circumstances, the role of the WMO through the TT DERS and other bodies is to advocate for mutual benefit data sharing and finding those triggering factors (such as receiving funding, improvement of weather and hydrological forecast, better quality of climate/hydrological services) that could change the attitude, to encourage mutual exchanges of data and infrastructure, and make use of strategic communication.
Improving probabilistic wind speed forecasts with deep learning
Authors: Klein Katharina , Tolomei Daniel , Dirksen Sjoerd , Whan Kirien , Schmeits Maurice
Published: March 2024

This project aims at developing post-processing models for deriving probabilistic weather forecasts from NWP forecast data using deep learning techniques.The first part of the project involves improving probabilistic wind speed forecasts for consecutive lead times using an autoregressive model. Post-processing multiple lead times simultaneously is challenging because of the inherent temporal dependencies. Classical approaches often involve processing lead times individually and subsequently employing empirical copula methods to handle such dependencies. Building on previous work, we instead consider the ARMOS model which incorporates temporal dependencies through the autoregressive property of forecast errors and can be used to obtain an explicit multivariate probability distribution for the weather variable in question. As such, it is a generalization of the widely used Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) used for estimating marginal distributions.For the purpose of this project, the model is applied to deterministic forecasts from the Harmonie-Arome model of KNMI, yielding a multivariate parametric forecast distribution for hourly wind speeds up to 48 hours ahead. We model the marginal conditional distributions as truncated normal distributions, and the model parameters are estimated both linearly and as the output of a neural network with convolutional and optional LSTM layers which can detect spatial patterns and temporal dependencies, respectively. We compare the resulting models to a variant of EMOS adapted to deterministic forecasts that is paired with a copula method.The ARMOS model has so far shown good performance in modeling temporal dependencies explicitly without the need to use a copula method. Moreover, the network models outperform the classical approach of estimating the distribution parameters linearly. We will provide an update on these results as well as an outlook on planned future work.
Rates and pathways of organic carbon mineralisation in different sedimentary environments of the Helgoland Mud Area, SE German Bight
Authors: Müller Daniel , Liu Bo , Holtappels Moritz , Geibert Walter , Henkel Susann , Kasten Sabine
Published: March 2024

Fine-grained coastal and continental margin sediments are the largest permanent sink for carbon on our planet. They are typically rich in organic matter and often characterised by high sedimentation rates – favouring the burial of carbon. The ultimate processes that control the preservation of organic matter (OM) and its burial to deeper sediment layers are the different aerobic and anaerobic microbial OM mineralisation pathways that occur in surface sediments. In order to assess the rates and pathways of OM degradation in fine-grained sediments of the North Sea, we have chosen the Helgoland Mud Area (HMA), which represents the most important mud depocenter in the German Bight. The HMA is located at water depths between 11 and 27 m and covers an area of about 500 km2 southeast of the island of Helgoland. We present a high spatial and vertical resolution pore-water dataset for the HMA of surface sediments retrieved using a multi-corer (MUC). This dataset includes oxygen profiles, pore-water profiles of sulfate, sulfide, nitrate, ammonia, dissolved iron, dissolved manganese, dissolved inorganic carbon and its stable carbon isotopic composition. A full diagenetic model for the uppermost 25 cm of the sediments was applied to estimate the rates of the different OM mineralisation pathways and the respective diffusive fluxes towards and across the sediment-water interface. The organic carbon burial flux and organic matter mineralisation rates range from 2.6 to 9.9 mmol m-2 d-1 and 1.9 to 9.1 mmol m-2 d-1, respectively. The highest remineralisation rates are attributed to aerobic respiration and account for up to 86 % of total OM mineralisation in the investigated surface sediments. Sulfate reduction is shown to be the second-most important mineralisation pathway of OM in the study area – except for three sites which are characterised by iron reduction and denitrification as the dominant mineralisation process after aerobic respiration. These results will be discussed in the context of the different depositional conditions, variations in particulate organic carbon (POC) accumulation and POC origin across the HMA.
Analysis of H/V spectral ratio curves from passive seismic data acquired on glaciers worldwide
Authors: Govoorts Julien , Van Noten Koen , Caudron Corentin , Einarsson Bergur , Lecocq Thomas , Nowé Sylvain , Pálsson Finnur , Pätzel Jonas , Zekollari Harry
Published: March 2024

Estimations of bedrock topography below glaciers and ice thickness are vital for quantifying freshwater availability for surrounding populations and understanding the contribution of melting glaciers to sea-level rise in the context of global warming. While active seismology is commonly used for ice thickness estimation, the utilization of passive methods remains relatively rare. Passive seismology solutions offer cost-effectiveness, non-invasiveness and continuous monitoring capabilities that present valuable benefits in glaciological research.Over the past two decades, numerous seismic stations have been deployed on glaciers worldwide for various purposes. Through passive seismology approaches, these seismic stations could show their potential as new sources of ice thickness measurements and feed the related database. For this purpose, we analyzed data of 3-components seismic sensors from different deployments as well as data from open access databases, such as IRIS, employing the Horizontal-to-Vertical Spectral Ratio (HVSR) technique. HVSR has been predominantly used in microzonation studies to determine site effects and the thickness of sediments in sedimentary basins.  Even though the use of this technique in glacial seismology is quite new, HVSR has been already utilized to estimate in-situ ice thickness, to retrieve the basal properties or to detect cavities under the ice.Our primary objective is to demonstrate the potential of the HVSR technique to retrieve in-situ ice thickness on different glaciers. Subsequently, we will compare the HVSR results with different data sources including models, ground-penetrating radar or active seismology. By performing this comparison we evaluate the limitations of the HVSR method in an icy environment. We investigate these limitations by studying the effect of other natural agents such as wind on the H/V amplitude and fundamental frequency retrieved from the HVSR curves. Having a global understanding of these influences will eventually help deciphering variations in continuous H/V monitoring.
Seasonal underground thermal energy storage for district heating and cooling in the Czech Republic: potential and challenges
Authors: Scaringi Gianvito
Published: March 2024

Thanks to generous subsidies, many residential buildings in the Czech Republic are being equipped with photovoltaic and solar thermal panels, heat pumps, and heat and electricity accumulation systems. Photovoltaic roofs generate considerable savings overall (>50% in typical domestic installations). However, in summertime, they produce substantial and highly variable overflows of electricity into the grid, even with the use of air conditioning and electric vehicles charging. This result in volatile and at times negative wholesale prices of electricity. Conversely, in wintertime, the production is insufficient to balance the load from heat pumps (which are replacing wood burning and gas heaters), thereby contributing to high electricity prices. Hot water tanks and electric batteries can compensate load imbalances on a daily scale only, whereas national-scale solutions relying on gravitational energy storage are not viable. In this context, distributed systems for the seasonal accumulation of energy in the form of heat seem in principle an attractive solution. These systems could use the underground space as a heat source or sink according to needs, exploiting soil layers that are deep enough to ensure stability against seasonal fluctuations in temperature propagating from the surface, but also sufficiently shallow to ensure reasonable costs of installation. In new constructions, heat exchangers could be embedded in foundations or installed in boreholes below common areas such as access roads, parking lots and gardens. Similarly, they could be fitted in already built-up areas, and scaled in such a way to maximise their efficiency without disturbing the mechanical stability and performance of existing buildings and infrastructures. In the Czech Republic, despite a growing bottom-up demand for the creation of energy communities, their technical and regulatory viability remains unexplored. This is especially true for shallow underground seasonal thermal energy storage systems. In part, this relates to an insufficient knowledge of the ground response to thermo-hydro-mechanical forcing, as well as of possible ground-structure interactions. We are beginning to tackle this problem in upcoming research projects. Here, we will discuss our understanding of matters of priority to be addressed in our national context and present preliminary calculations demonstrating the potential of solutions at various scales.
Morphing 2-D rainfall fields based on temperature shifts as a basis for future urban flood assessment
Authors: Zou Wenyue , B. Wright Daniel , Peleg Nadav
Published: March 2024

2-D rainfall fields play a critical role in assessing urban flood impacts and planning drainage systems. High-resolution rainfall fields, obtained from remote sensing devices such as weather radar and satellites, are not largely available and are even more limited for rainfall and flood frequency applications. One method that can be used to estimate extreme rainfall frequency—even with limited data—is Stochastic Storm Transposition (SST), which transposes observed rainfall fields within a region. In the context of climate change, there is a need to alter the observed rainfall fields to account for nonstationary changes in storm intensity and structure. Here, we suggest using Spatial Quantile Mapping (SQM) to modify the intensities and structures of rainfall fields with temperature as a covariate to generate an archive of plausible rainfall fields, which can then be used within SST as an input to assess changes in rainfall and floods. We take Beijing city as a case study, employing 22 years of 1 km hourly downscaled rainfall from CMORPH and near-surface air temperature data from ERA5, to demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach. Initially, SST is run under the current climate and validated for the 2- to 100-year rainfall return levels compared with those of 21 stations within Beijing city. Subsequently, according to the observed relationships between hourly rainfall and temperature, the rainfall fields are modified by the SQM method to fit future temperature conditions. Ultimately, the future extreme rainfall intensities, ranging from 2- to 100-year return levels, are obtained through the integration of the SST and SQM methods. The results indicate that the combined SST-SQM approach can be efficiently used to estimate future rainfall extremes in a changing climate.
Multi-decadal gravel berm observations in southern California
Authors: Matsumoto Hiro , Young Adam
Published: March 2024

Gravel berms occur naturally on beaches worldwide, may provide defense against beach erosion and coastal flooding, and have been increasingly built around the world including the U.S. west coast. Recent studies observed longshore transport caused gravel loss from artificially built gravel berms prompting concern about their future stability. However, few observations of long-term gravel-berm behaviors and stability exist. Using historical observations since 1980s combined with modern LiDAR-based observations, this study quantitatively examines multi-decal morphological changes of natural gravel berms in southern California. The morphological observations are compared with wave conditions and local engineering coastal modifications. This contribution provides novel multi-decadal evolution of gravel berm morphology in a relatively urbanized coastal area and useful insights of long-term gravel berm behavior and stability.
Quantifying the Importance of Wind Erosion of Bare Peat: Initial Insights from Field Measurements and Wind Tunnel Modelling
Authors: Zang Yuzhe , Warburton Jeff , Gan Lian , Hardy Richard
Published: March 2024

Peat erosion and degradation contribute to 2-6% of total global emissions of carbon each year. Wind erosion of bare peat surfaces, is a significant component of erosion. However, how rapidly-changing bare peat surface aerodynamic properties affect erosion processes have not been fully quantified. This study investigates how the spatial and temporal characteristics of peatland wind erosion are controlled by the aerodynamic properties of the bare peat surface. Field measurements of local meteorology, peat surface properties and peat flux from a 3-ha bare area of upland blanket peat (North Pennines, UK), have been analysed during a sustained period of strong winds and rainfall (November to April 2023). Results demonstrate that the eroded peat flux is correlated with the southwest prevailing wind direction and as velocity increases, the flux becomes more focussed to the southwest (225°). Windward-facing peat fluxes are 4-9 times higher than those in the leeward direction. The vertical wind velocity profile over the bare peat shows a logarithmic pattern with height which is mirrored in the peat flux profile. Average friction velocity is only partially correlated to the peat flux during the strongest wind events suggesting that peat surface aerodynamic characteristics (roughness) also affect the pattern and magnitude of eroded peat flux. To investigate this hypothesis in greater detail wind tunnel experiments with a 3-D printed 1:1 rough peat surface model (0.5 x 0.7 m, average geometric roughness height 0.0345 m) in a large recirculating wind tunnel (2 x 0.6 x 0.6 m) are conducted to acquire the wind velocity profile over the peat boundary surface at 12 carefully selected characteristic locations. Experiments are conducted under free stream wind velocities at 2, 4, 6, 8, 10 m s-1 which are representative to the wind velocities observed in the field. Velocity measurements are taken by traversing a 5-hole probe in a normal direction with a spatial resolution of 2 mm within the boundary layer. Velocity signals are sampled at 500 Hz over 12 seconds at each sampling location. Flow properties including time-mean velocity, turbulence kinetic energy and wall shear stresses over the rough peat surface are analysed. These provide details of the wind flow field over the peat microtopography and allow us to investigate spatially and temporally resolved airflow dynamics. Further work using numerical modelling is planned to test the field observations and wind tunnel experiments and define in detail how surface roughness influences erosion of bare peat.
Improved modelled crop water-use and crop productivity using thermal and optical remote sensing data 
Authors: Khan Muhammad Sarfraz , Caine Robert S. , Morrison Ross , Croft Holly L.
Published: March 2024

Accurately monitoring crop water use and crop photosynthesis is essential for predicting crop yield and optimising management strategies, in order to sustainably enhance crop productivity and maintain future food security. The synthesis of  thermal and multi-spectral remote sensing dataset is a promising approach for improving estimates of crop water and carbon fluxes at scales from the individual plant to regional extents. This study uses remotely-sensed data collected from ground-based, drone and satellite sensors to model evapotranspiration (ET) and crop productivity in wheat (Triticum aestivum) across a growing season at a flux tower site in northern England. A ground-based FLIR thermal camera (T530) was utilized to measure the diurnal variations in temperature every 30 minutes between 10AM till 2PM. A Parrot Analfi thermal drone and DJI Matrice 200 Series V2 paired with the Micasense Rededge MX multispectral sensor were flown at an altitude of 20 m, 7 times across the growing season, along with satellite-based Landsat-8 TIRS (100 m) and Sentinel-2 (60 m) multi-spectral data. Crop water and carbon fluxes were modelled using the Biosphere-atmosphere Exchange Process Simulator (BEPS), where Vcmax was dynamically constrained in BEPS through its relationship with leaf chlorophyll content from drone and Sentinel-2 data using a radiative-transfer based approach (PROSAIL). BEPS-modelled ET estimates compared results from a physical-based Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS), 3T, modified 3T, and simplified model which bypasses the requirement of input net radiation by incorporating a dry reference surface. Modelled photosynthesis and ET results were compared with in-situ eddy-covariance flux tower observations. For three out of 7 days of simulated results, temporal variations in modelled ET compared with flux tower observations at half hourly scale demonstrated index of agreement values of 0.74, 0.80, and 0.68, and Pearson’s Correlation values of 0.72, 0.65, and 0.64, respectively, for the 3T, modified 3T, and simplified ET model. Our results demonstrate the potential of synergizing drone, ground-based, and satellite platforms for providing accurate prediction of crop water use and productivity for a sustainable crop yield.
Future changes in the South American Monsoon System and its consequences over south-eastern Peru
Authors: González-Rojí Santos J. , Messmer Martina , Raible Christoph C. , Stocker Thomas F.
Published: March 2024

Tropical regions in South America are characterized by rich biodiversity, diverse climatic zones and heterogenous weather. This heterogeneity is caused by the South American Monsoon System (SAMS) and the atmospheric low-level jets (LLJ). Both atmospheric circulation features have a critical role in the distribution of moisture and precipitation. The regions located where the rainforest meets the Andes are highly affected by these LLJs. One example is the department of Madre de Dios, located in south-eastern Peru. Its economy and the well-being of the population are highly dependent on natural resources provided by the ecosystem. Hence, understanding how the SAMS and the associated LLJs will change under global warming is important for water management in the region. To investigate the climate change signals, we employ the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF; version 3.8.1) at convection-permitting scales (up to 1 km). Two 30-year periods of a global climate simulation are dynamically downscaled for the present (1981–2010) and the future (2071–2100). Thereby, we consider the mitigation scenario representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and the high-emission scenario RCP8.5.The validation of the simulation for the present period indicates that while precipitation amounts fall within the range of observational datasets such as PISCO or CHIRPS, a cold bias is found from April to July compared to ERA5 or CRU. The bias in temperature is potentially caused by biases in the driving global climate simulations and by the difference in land elevation between WRF and observational datasets.The comparison of present and future simulations shows changes in both temperature and precipitation in Madre de Dios. The climate projections indicate an increase in temperature of 1 and 3 °C under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Precipitation is projected to overall decrease in Madre de Dios. During the rainy season from September to April, the average decrease is 5 and 12 % under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. During the dry season from May to August, the rain is reduced by more than 50 % in both scenarios. The general reduction in precipitation seems to be related to the changes in the SAMS under climate change, which include a less intense Bolivian High during the peak months of December and January (particularly in RCP8.5), a less intense Chaco Low in February, and a more intense Atlantic Tropical High that extends much further into the continent in both climate scenarios from April to August. These changes reduce the occurrence of LLJ events under both climate scenarios, and consequently, affecting precipitation east of the Andes.
Glacial seismic geomorphology offshore northwest Europe
Authors: Newton Andrew , Montelli Alexandr , Batchelor Christine , Bellwald Benjamin , Harding Rachel , Huuse Mads , Dowdeswell Julian , Ottesen Dag , Johansen Ståle , Planke Sverre
Published: March 2024

Plio-Pleistocene records of ice-rafted detritus suggest that northwest European ice sheets regularly advanced across palaeo-coastlines. However, while these records are important, they provide only a limited insight on the frequency, extent, and dynamics of the ice sheets that were delivering the detritus. Three-dimensional reflection seismic data of the northwest European glaciated margin have previously documented buried glacial landforms that inform us on these uncertainties. This work combines existing landform records with new seismic geomorphological observations to catalogue landform occurrence along the European glaciated margin and considers how these features relate to ice sheet history. The compilation shows that Early Pleistocene ice sheets regularly advanced onto and across the continental shelves. This is important because Early Pleistocene sea level reconstructions show lower magnitude fluctuations between glacial-interglacial cycles than when compared to the Middle-Late Pleistocene. The potential for more extensive and more frequent Early Pleistocene glaciation provides a possible mismatch with these sea level reconstructions. This evidence is considered with global records of glaciation to contemplate the possible impacts on our wider understanding of Plio-Pleistocene climate changes, in particular how well Early Pleistocene sea level records capture ice sheet volume changes and how quickly large ice sheets waxed and waned. Resolving such issues relies on how well landforms are dated, whether they can be correlated with other proxy datasets of environmental change, and how accurately these proxies reconstruct the magnitudes of past climatic changes. The results leave many more questions about Pleistocene glaciation in Europe unresolved, with significant impacts on our global understanding of how sea level evolved through the Pleistocene and its association with ice sheet development.
Identifying Dominant Emission Sectors for Air Quality in Argentina using Partial Least Squares Path Modeling (PLS-PM) on WRF-Chem Simulations.
Authors: Berná Lucas , López-Noreña Ana Isabel , Fernandez Rafael Pedro , Puliafito S. Enrique
Published: March 2024

A Partial Least Squares Path Modeling (PLS-PM) methodology was employed to identify the dominant emission sectors responsible for the concentrations of major air pollutants. This approach leverages factor analysis and principal component analysis to differentiate pollutant concentration levels into clusters and establish causal relationships with specific emission sectors. As categorical variables (measurable data) for this model, seven WRF-Chem simulations were conducted over a single domain encompassing Argentina for April 2019. These simulations utilized the GEAA-AEI emission inventory, following a sectorized approach. Five simulations incorporated emissions from individual sectors (Energy, Transport, Livestock, Residential, Industrial), one simulation included emissions from all sectors, and a control simulation was conducted with anthropogenic emissions deactivated. The PLS-PM analysis facilitated the creation of a color map figure that distinguishes areas impacted by each sector. This distinction is particularly evident for transport and livestock emissions at low-pollution levels, while hotspots related to energy sector emissions are discernible in high-pollution areas. This modeling approach holds promise for extracting additional information about areas with high pollution levels from future WRF-Chem simulations or observational data, thereby enabling the identification of contributing sources.
Cost – Benefit Analysis through Stochastic Risk Assessment on Mining Waste Management
Authors: Machairas Evangelos , Varouchakis Emmanouil , Galetakis Michail
Published: March 2024

Cost Benefit & Bayesian Analysis for Mining Waste Management contributes positively to developing an alternative methodology that could be implemented on an industrial scale. Two case scenarios are examined. The first scenario refers to the presentation of mining activities without 3R’s policy (reduce, recover, reuse wastes) and non-implementation of environmental protection measures. The second scenario refers to the presentation of mining activities with full implementation of environmental protection requirements by a closed system of industrial units for metal recovery and avoiding free disposal of tailings in soil areas. Considering a) each project’s aim and scope, b) legislative requirements for environmental protection, and c) escalation of penalty cost for non-compliance with the corresponding legislation, the total cost for each case scenario is extracted. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) evaluates the sustainability of each case scenario by its Financial Risk.The scope of this paper is to ensure the adaptability of the CBA appraisal tool to each similar subject of study, in which the lowest Financial Risk indices characterize optimal business decisions. CBA’s evaluation involves each case scenario’s parameters converted into monetary terms. CBA’s extracted results are calibrated through Bayesian Analysis to provide more accurate Financial Risk (FR) estimation. The physical meaning of Bayesian Analysis’s provided calibration to the CBA is to obtain the ability to implement stochastic risk in realistic conditions.