bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Using Measures of Expectations to Identify the Effects of a Monetary Policy Shock
Authors: Brunner Allan D.
Published: August 2019

This paper considers an alternative econometric approach to the VAR methodology for identifying and estimating the effects of monetary policy shocks. The alternative approach incorporates available measures of market participants' expectations of economic variables in order to calculate economic innovations to those variables. In general, expectations measures should provide important additional information relative to a standard VAR analysis, since market participants presumably use a much richer information set than that assumed in a typical VAR model. The resulting innovations are easily incorporated in a VAR-like framework. The empirical results are quite surprising. First, when expectations are incorporated, the variance of all innovations is reduced substantially. Second, innovations to the federal funds rate derived using the alternative approach are only somewhat correlated with their VAR counterparts, while innovations to other economic variables are essentially uncorrelated. Still, monetary policy shocks derived using both approaches are still somewhat correlated, however, since innovations to prices and economic activity explain only a small fraction of innovations to the federal funds rate. As a consequence, the impulse responses of economic variables to the two sets of monetary policy shocks have remarkably similar properties.
Mexico's Balance-of-Payments Crisis: A Chronicle of Death Foretold
Authors: Calvo Guillermo A. , Mendoza Enrique G.
Published: August 2019

This paper claims that the roots of Mexico's balance-of-payments crisis are found in the prevailing high degree of capital mobility and financial globalization. Under these circumstances, shifts in foreign capital flows and anticipation of a banking-system bailout may produce large imbalances between stocks of financial assets and foreign reserves, threatening the sustainability of currency pegs. Econometric analysis suggests that 1/2 of Mexico's reserve losses could be accounted for by these phenomena. Large financial imbalances are also fertile ground for self-fulfilling-prophesy crises which lead devaluations to produce deep recessions. These difficulties can be partly remedied by appropriate policies.
Returns to Scale in U.S. Production: Estimates and Implications
Authors: Basu Susanto , Fernald John G.
Published: August 2019

A typical (roughly) two-digit industry in the United States appears to have constant or slightly decreasing returns to scale. Three puzzles emerge, however. First, estimates tend to rise at higher levels of aggregation. Second, estimates of decreasing returns in many industries contradict evidence of only small economic profits. Third, estimates using value added differ substantially from those using gross output, and appear less robust. These puzzles are inconsistent with a representative firm paradigm, but are consistent with simple stories of aggregation over heterogeneous units. We discuss implications of this heterogeneity for recent models of imperfect competition in macroeconomics.
German Unification: What Have We Learned from Multi-Country Models?
Authors: Gagnon Joseph E. , Masson Paul R. , McKibbin Warwick J.
Published: August 2019

This study reports on early simulations of the effects of German unification using three different rational-expectations multi-country models. Despite significant differences in their structures and in the implementations of the unification shock, the models delivered a number of common results that proved to be a reasonably accurate guide to the direction and magnitude of the effects of unification on most key macroeconomic variables. In particular, unification was expected to give rise to an increase in German aggregate demand that would put upward pressure on output, inflation, and the exchange rate, and downward pressure on the current account balance in Germany. The model simulations also highlighted the contractionary effects of high German interest rates on other member countries of the Exchange Rate Mechanism of the European Monetary System.
Alternatives in Human Capital Accumulation: Implications for Economic Growth
Authors: Owen Ann L. , Iyigun Murat
Published: August 2019

This paper demonstrates that considering alternative means of human capital accumulation, such as learning-by-doing, overturns the presumption that formal education is unconditionally beneficial for economic growth. It analyzes a model in which the average level of human capital creates externalities in future human capital accumulation and individuals can augment their human capital with work experience or education. The model shows that in the early stages of development, education enhances growth by creating a positive externality, and, in later stages, it may depress growth by leading to a negative externality. It also demonstrates the possibility of multiple equilibria in which low-income equilibria are characterized by under-education and high-income equilibria are characterized by over-education.
Inflation-Adjusted Potential Output
Authors: Haltmaier Jane
Published: August 2019

This paper estimates potential output for seven countries using a multivariate version of the Hodrick-Prescott filter in which observations on inflation are used to help separate trend from cyclical movements in output. The potential series are estimated first on an aggregate basis, and then by disaggregating output into three major components: labor productivity, the employment-population ratio, and population. Potential levels of productivity and the employment-population ratios are calculated using the multivariate filter and combined with actual population to derive an alternative, "disaggregated" estimate of potential. The method is then applied to forecasting potential growth.
Implications of Economic Interdependence and Exchange Rate Policy on Endogenous Wage Indexation Decisions
Authors: Bryson Jay H. , Chen Chih-huan , VanHoose David D.
Published: August 2019

This paper shows how economic interdependence affects wage indexation decisions when monetary authorities do not observe stochastic disturbances. Under a managed exchange rate, atomistic wage setters in interdependent nations will choose the same degree of indexation as they would in a small open economy. Under a flexible exchange rate, the likelihood rises that they will choose a lower degree of indexation than their counterparts in a small open economy as the degree of interdependence rises, as the variance of money demand shocks rise relative to supply shocks, and as supply curves steepen. Finally, wage indexation choices are more likely to be strategic complements as the degree of interdependence rises and as the variance of money demand shocks rises relative to supply shocks.
Money, Politics, and the Post-War Business Cycle
Authors: Faust Jon , Irons John S.
Published: August 2019

While macroeconometricians continue to dispute the size, timing, and even the existence of effects of monetary policy, political economists often find large effects of political variables and often attribute the effects to manipulation of the Fed. Since the political econometricians often use smaller information sets and less elaborate approaches to identification than do macroeconometricians, their striking results could be the result of simultaneity and omitted variable biases. Alternatively, political whims may provide the instrument for exogenous policy changes that has been the Grail of the policy identification literature. In this paper, we lay out and apply a framework for distinguishing these possibilities. We find almost no support for the hypothesis that political effects on the macroeconomy operate through monetary policy and only weak evidence that political effects are significant at all.
Net Foreign Assets and Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Panel Evidence
Authors: Gagnon Joseph E.
Published: August 2019

By exploiting the information in a panel data set, this paper is able to construct more powerful tests of various hypotheses on the determinants of real exchange rates than would be possible with single-country time-series data. Focusing on annual data for 20 industrial countries from 1973 through 1995, there are three major results. First, the evidence for a stationary real exchange rate is stronger when the exchange rate is defined in terms of wholesale prices than consumer prices, presumably because of the greater tradability of wholesale commodities. Second, the half-life of shocks to the real exchange rate is between two and three years. Third, there is a significant and robust relationship between real exchange rates and net foreign assets.
Capital Mobility and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff
Authors: Loungani Prakash , Razin Assaf , Yuen Chi-Wa
Published: August 2019

Our paper analyses the effects of restrictions on capital mobility on the output-inflation tradeoff. Using a stochastic version of the Mundell-Fleming model, we establish a theoretical presumption that an increase in restrictions on capital mobility should make the tradeoff parameter smaller, that is, a given change in the inflation rate should be associated with smaller movements in output. To measure the extent to which countries restrict capital movements, we construct an index using data from the IMF's Annual Report on Exchange Rate Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions. The estimates of the output-inflation tradeoff parameter are obtained from studies by Lucas (1973), Ball, Mankiw and Romer (1988) and others. Consistent with the theoretical presumption, countries with greater restrictions on capital controls have a smaller tradeoff parameter, that is, a steeper Phillips curve. This result holds after controlling for the impact of variability of aggregate demand [as suggested by Lucas (1973)] and mean inflation [as suggested by Ball, Mankiw and Romer (1988)] on the tradeoff parameter.
Output and the Real Exchange Rate in Developing Countries: An Application to Mexico
Authors: Kamin Steven , Rogers John Harold
Published: August 2019

Since Mexico's devaluation of the peso in 1994, some observers have called for policies designed to keep the real exchange rate highly competitive in order to promote exports and output growth. However, over the past few decades, devaluations of the real exchange rate have been associated nearly exclusively with economic contraction, while real appreciations have been followed almost invariably by expansions in economic activity. The purpose of this paper is to attempt to disentangle the possible factors underlying this correlation--(1) reverse causation from output to the real exchange rate, (2) spurious correlation with third factors such as capital account shocks, and (3) temporary contractionary effects of devaluation--and determine whether, once those factors are accounted for, a positive, long-run effect of real depreciation on output can be identified in the data. Based on the results of a VAR model designed to explore the linkages between the real exchange rate and output, we conclude that even after sources of spurious correlation and reverse causation are controlled for, real devaluation has led to high inflation and economic contraction in Mexico. While changes in Mexico's economic structure and financial situation may qualify the future applicability of this conclusion, we view our findings as pointing to substantial risks to targeting the exchange rate at too competitive a level.
Can Government Gold Be Put to Better Use? Qualitative and Quantitative Effects of Alternative Policies
Authors: Henderson Dale W. , Irons John S. , Salant Stephen W. , Thomas Sebastian
Published: August 2019

Gold has both private uses (depletion uses and service uses) and government uses. It can be obtained from mines with high extraction costs (about $300 per ounce) or from above ground stocks with no extraction costs. Governments still store massive stocks of gold. Making government gold available for private uses through some combination of sales and loans raises welfare from private uses by removing two types of inefficiencies. For given private uses, there is a production inefficiency if costless government gold is withheld while costly gold is taken from mines. There are use inefficiencies if costless government gold is withheld from private users. We assess both qualitatively and quantitatively the gain in welfare and its distribution.Any policy in a class maximizes welfare from private uses. One policy involves selling all government gold immediately. Another involves lending all remaining government gold in every period and selling government gold gradually after some future time. Government uses might require gold ownership but not gold storage. If so, any loss in welfare from government uses would be much smaller under the policy involving lending and selling gradually.We construct and calibrate a model of the gold market. We prove that governments always obtain more revenue by making their gold available sooner. For a representative set of parameters, there is a gain in total welfare (discounted economic surplus) of $130 billion (1997 dollars) if governments act now instead of twenty years from now. Before any redistribution, governments gain $128 billion, and the private sector gains $2 billion. According to our measure, a large share of the gain (37%) comes from removing the production inefficiency.
Capital Inflows, Financial Intermediation, and Aggregate Demand: Empirical Evidence from Mexico and Other Pacific Basin Countries
Authors: Kamin Steven , Wood Paul R.
Published: August 2019

In trying to explain the balance-of-payments and banking crises of 1994-95 that erupted in Mexico, observers have pointed to various effects of the substantial capital inflows that took place in the preceding half decade. It has been argued that these inflows contributed to rapid monetary growth, real appreciation of the peso, and the widening of Mexico&amp;#x27;s current account deficit. In addition, by making available credit for consumption loans at a time when investment spending in Mexico was not yet ready to grow rapidly, these inflows may have contributed to the fall in Mexico&amp;#x27;s savings rate.This paper looks at the effect of capital flows on macroeconomic and financial variables in Mexico during the 1980s and 1990s and compares Mexico&amp;#x27;s experience with that of a cross-section of Pacific Basin countries. In particular, we attempt to gauge the effect of capital flows on money growth, interest rates, consumption, and investment. We do find evidence of an independent effect of capital flows on monetary conditions and domestic demand, controlling for certain other domestic factors. However, these inflows appear not to have altered substantially the basic trajectories of money, consumption, and investment in the recipient countries.
The Bank Lending Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission: Evidence from a Model of Bank Behavior That Incorporates Long-Term Customer Relationships
Authors: Gibson Michael S.
Published: August 2019

I test for the existence of a bank lending channel of monetary policy transmission. I identify bank lending channel effects with a simple model of bank behavior incorporating long-term customer relationships. The model suggests that when a large fraction of bank assets is held in loans, contractionary monetary policy shocks are more likely to cause a cutback in bank lending, in turn reducing real economic activity. This implication of the model is supported in the data. I conduct a "horse race" between the bank lending channel and two alternative non-user-cost-of-capital channels of monetary transmission. The bank lending channel is the strongest of the three. The ability of the fraction of bank assets held in loans to predict how the strength of monetary policy transmission varies over time should be of interest to both theorists and forecasters of business cycles.
Pitfalls in Tests for Changes in Correlations
Authors: Boyer Brian H. , Gibson Michael S. , Loretan Mico
Published: August 2019

Correlations are crucial for pricing and hedging derivatives whose payoff depends on more than one asset. Typically, correlations computed separately for ordinary and stressful market conditions differ considerably, a pattern widely termed "correlation breakdown." As a result, risk managers worry that their hedges will be useless when they are most needed, namely during "stressful" market situations.We show that such worries may not be justified since "correlation breakdowns" can easily be generated by data whose distribution is stationary and, in particular, whose correlation coefficient is constant. We make this point analytically, by way of several numerical examples, and via an empirical illustration.But, risk managers should not necessarily relax. Although "correlation breakdown" can be an artifact of poor data analysis, other evidence suggests that correlations do in fact change over time, though not in a way that is correlated with "stressful" market conditions.
The Choice of a Monetary Policy Reaction Function in a Simple Optimizing Model
Authors: Henderson Dale W. , Kim Jinill
Published: August 2019

Monetary policy reaction functions are compared in a simple optimizing model with one-period nominal stickiness, i.i.d. shocks, and no capital accumulation. The interest rate is the instrument and is either kept constant, "interest rate targeting" for short, or used in targeting one of the following: money, the price level, output, nominal income (output), money growth, inflation, and the sum of inflation and output. There are three varieties of one-period nominal stickiness---wage stickiness, wage and price stickiness, and price stickiness---and three kinds of shocks---money demand shocks, goods demand shocks, and productivity shocks. A given type of targeting is "better" than some other type for a given variable and kind of shock if it results in smaller deviations of the variable from its target value. Some familiar results regarding the ranking of types of targeting are confirmed in the optimizing model, and some new results are obtained. It is not surprising that rankings may depend both on the type of shock and on which variable is the target variable. However, it may be somewhat surprising that, given that wages are sticky, rankings depend on whether prices are sticky, but that given that prices are sticky rankings do not depend on whether wages are sticky.
A Multi-Country Comparison of the Linkages Between Inflation and Exchange Rate Competitiveness
Authors: Kamin Steven
Published: August 2019

This paper describes research comparing the response of inflation to changes in exchange rate competitiveness in various regions of the world. The paper first presents evidence that an empirical relationship between the rate of inflation and the level of the real exchange rate, which was documented for Mexico in previous research by the author, holds for a large set of other countries as well. This result may pose a dilemma for policy-makers, since it implies that it may not be possible to achieve low inflation and a high export competitiveness simultaneously. The paper then demonstrates that the responsiveness of inflation to the real exchange rate has been much higher in Latin America than in Asian or industrialised countries. This difference in inflationary responsiveness is not fully explained either by the prior history of inflation or by the extent of openness to foreign trade. It is possible that the lower responsiveness of inflation to the real exchange rate in Asia than in Lat
Transparency and Credibility: Monetary Policy with Unobservable Goals
Authors: Svensson Lars E.O. , Faust Jon
Published: August 2019

We define and study transparency, credibility, and reputation in a model where the central bank's characteristics are unobservable to the private sector and are inferred from the policy outcome. A low-credibility bank optimally conducts a more inflationary policy than a high-credibility bank, in the sense that it induces higher inflation, but a less expansionary policy in the sense that it induces lower inflation and employment than expected. Increased transparency makes the bank's reputation and credibility more sensitive to its actions. This has a moderating influence on the bank's policy. Full transparency of the central bank's intentions is generally socially beneficial, but frequently not in the interest of the bank. Somewhat paradoxically, direct observability of idiosyncratic central bank goals removes the moderating incentive on the bank and leads to the worst equilibrium.
The Robustness of Identified VAR Conclusions about Money
Authors: Faust Jon
Published: August 2019

This paper presents a new way to assess robustness of claims from identified VAR work. All possible identifications are checked for the one that is worst for the claim, subject to the restriction that the VAR produce reasonable impulse responses to shocks. The statistic on which the claim is based need not be identified; thus, one can assess claims in large models using minimal restrictions. The technique reveals only weak support for the claim that monetary policy shocks contribute a small portion of the forecast error variance of postwar U.S. output in standard 6-variable and 13-variable models.
Some Multi-Country Evidence on the Effects of Real Exchange Rates on Output
Authors: Kamin Steven , Klau Marc
Published: August 2019

The simultaneous occurrence of devaluation and recession in Mexico in 1995, as well as in the East Asian economies more recently, appears to contradict the conventional view that devaluations are expansionary. Moreover, a sizeable theoretical and empirical literature also argues that, contrary to the predictions of textbook analysis, exchange rate devaluations may be contractionary rather than expansionary. However, prior statistical analyses of the effects of exchange rate devaluation on output have been subject to several limitations: (i) they have failed to distinguish adequately between short and long-run effects; (ii) they have not controlled for the full range of external shocks; and (iii) they have not considered whether the effects of devaluation might differ between different regions of the world. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of devaluation on output for 27 countries while attempting to address these limitations in previous empirical analyses. We find no evidence that devaluations are contractionary in the long run. Additionally, controlling for sources of spurious correlation and reverse causality appears to mute the measured contractionary effect of devaluation in the short run, although this effect remains even after these controls are introduced. Finally, while the literature on contractionary devaluation has focused primarily on developing countries, we found no evidence that this effect is stronger in developing countries than in industrialised countries.
Disintegration
Authors: Djankov Simeon , Freund Caroline L.
Published: August 2019

We study the effects of trade barriers and the persistence of past linkages on trade flows in the former Soviet Union (FSU). Estimating gravity equations on 1987-1996 trade among and between nine Russian regions and fourteen FSU republics, we find that Russian regions traded 60 percent more with each other than with republics in the reform period (1994-96). In contrast, they did not trade significantly more with each other than with republics in the pre-reform period (1987-90). Estimating a richer model, we find that trade barriers are primarily responsible for the current domestic bias. However, the existing infrastructure stock has significantly limited the recent reorientation in trade. Finally, we find evidence of anticipatory adjustment during the transition to independence.
Two Equivalence Theorems for Government Finance
Authors: Yu Dahai
Published: August 2019

This paper studies the effects of a path change in government debt composition and aggregate transfers on allocations and prices. It is shown that the effects are zero under some agent-specific transfer scheme even when markets are incomplete. If markets are complete, then the effects are zero under any transfer scheme that leaves each agent's lifetime resource unchanged if and only if agents are always collectively compensated for next period's return change. The infinite-horizon framework used has an arbitrary number of assets with arbitrary returns and an arbitrary mixture of finitely and infinitely lived agents.
Relative Price Volatility: What Role Does the Border Play
Authors: Engel Charles , Rogers John Harold
Published: August 2019

We reexamine the effect of the U.S.-Canadian border on integration of markets. The paper updates work from our earlier paper, Engel and Rogers (1996). We consider alternative measures of deviations from the law of one price. We pay special attention to the effect of the U.S.-Canada free trade agreement on market integration. Our conclusions are unchanged: markets in the U.S. and Canada are more segmented than can be explained by the physical distance between the two locations. Formal trade barriers do not appear to explain much of that segmentation.
Are Technology Improvements Contractionary?
Authors: Basu Susanto , Fernald John G. , Kimball Miles S.
Published: August 2019

Yes. We construct a measure of aggregate technology change, controlling for imperfect competition, varying utilization of capital and labor, and aggregation effects. On impact, when technology improves, input use falls sharply, and output may fall slightly. With a lag of several years, inputs return to normal and output rises strongly. These results are inconsistent with frictionless dynamic general equilibrium models, which generally predict that technology improvements are expansionary, with inputs and (especially) output rising immediately. However, the results are consistent with plausible sticky-price models, which predict the results we find: When technology improves, input use generally falls in the short run, and output itself may also fall.
Idiosyncratic Tastes in a Two-Country Optimizing Model: Implications of a Standard Presumption
Authors: Warnock Francis E.
Published: August 2019

International spillovers and exchange rate dynamics are examined in a two-country dynamic optimizing model that allows for idiosyncratic tastes across countries. Specifically, there is a home-good bias in consumption patterns: at given relative prices the ratio of home goods consumed to foreign goods consumed is higher in the home country. The setup nests Obstfeld and Rogoff (1995), who assume identical tastes. Allowing for idiosyncratic tastes produces results that differ from Obstfeld and Rogoffâ s: expansionary monetary policy increases home utility by more, the positive spillovers of a fiscal expansion are reduced, and both short-run and long-run deviations from consumption-based purchasing power parity are possible. The modelâ s predictions are broadly consistent with those from the Frenkel, Razin and Yuen (1996) version of the two-country Mundell-Fleming model and with observed behavior of real and nominal exchange rates.
The Implications of Risk Management Information Systems for the Organization of Financial Firms
Authors: Gibson Michael S.
Published: August 2019

Financial dealer firms have invested heavily in recent years to develop information systems for risk measurement. I take it as given that technological progress is likely to continue at a rapid pace, making it less expensive for financial firms to assemble risk information. I look beyond questions of risk measurement methodology to investigate the implications of risk management information systems. By examining several theoretical models of the firm in the presence of asymmetric information, I explore how a financial firmâ s capital budgeting, incentive compensation, capital structure, and risk management activities are likely to change as it becomes less costly to assemble risk information. I also explore the likely effects of the falling cost of assembling risk information on a financial firmâ s organizational structure. Two common themes emerge: centralization within the firm and increased disclosure of risk information outside the firm are both likely to increase.
What Triggers Market Jitters? A Chronicle of the Asian Crisis
Authors: Kaminsky Graciela Laura , Schmukler Sergio L.
Published: August 2019

In the chaotic financial environment of Asia in 1997-1998, daily changes in stock prices of about 10 percent became commonplace. This paper analyzes what type of news moved the markets in those days of market jitters. We find that movements were triggered by local and neighbor-country news, with news about agreements with international organizations and credit rating agencies having had the most weight. However, some of those large changes cannot be explained by any apparent substantial news, but seem to have been driven by herd instincts of the markets itself. The evidence suggests that investors over-reacted to bad news.
From Indoctrination to the Culture of Change: Technological Progress, Adaptive Skills, and the Creativity of Nations
Authors: Owen Ann L. , Iyigun Murat
Published: August 2019

We distinguish learning in a static environment from that in a dynamic environment to show the existence of an important interaction between the development of new technologies and human capital accumulation. Since technological progress creates a more dynamic and uncertain environment, it not only increases the rewards to education and ability but also enhances adaptive skills. The latter in turn determine how effectively new technologies are utilized in production because they help the workforce to innovate and improve new technologies. Thus, the adaptive skills of a workforce are an important link with which inventions and innovations play complementary roles in technological progress. Our results suggest why countries that have comparable levels of aggregate human capital and that are in similar stages of development may differ significantly in how successful they are in implementing new technologies. They also show how the intergenerational transmission of knowledge evolves endogenously with technological change. If technology changes rapidly during the process of development, learning fosters the intergenerational propogation of adaptive skills. In contrast, if technological progress is slow during development, the education of the young reinforces the learning of long-held norms.
Violating the Law of One Price: Should We Make a Federal Case Out of It?
Authors: Engel Charles , Rogers John Harold
Published: August 2019

We use new disaggregated data on consumer prices to determine why there is variability in prices of similar goods across U.S. cities. We address questions similar to those that have arisen in the international context: is this variability purely a result of market segmentation or do sticky nominal prices play a role? We also examine how the degree of tradability of a good influences price variability. Surprisingly, we find that variability is larger for traded goods. We attribute this finding to greater price stickiness for non-traded goods. Distance between cities accounts for a significant amount of the variation in prices between pairs of cities. But we also find that nominal price stickiness plays an even more significant role.
The Equilibrium Degree of Transparency and Control in Monetary Policy
Authors: Svensson Lars E.O. , Faust Jon
Published: August 2019

We examine a central bank's endogenous choice of degree of control and degree of transparency, under both commitment and discretion. Under commitment, we find that the deliberate choice of sloppy control is far less likely under a standard central-bank loss function than reported for a less-standard loss function by Cukierman and Meltzer. Under discretion, the maximum degree of control is the only equilibrium. With regard to the degree of transparency, under commitment, a sufficiently patient bank with sufficiently low average inflation bias will always choose minimum transparency. Under discretion, both minimum and maximum transparency are equilibria. We argue that discretion is the more realistic assumption for the choice of control and that commitment is more realistic for the choice of transparency. A maximum feasible degree of control with a minimum degree of transparency is then a likely outcome. The Bundesbank and the Federal Reserve System are, arguably, examples of this outcome.
'Here, Dollars, Dollars...' -- Estimating Currency Demand and Worldwide Currency Substitution
Authors: Doyle Brian M.
Published: August 2019

In measuring the percentage of foreign-held U.S., German, and Swiss currencies for the period of the 1960s through the 1990s, I obtain estimates much different from those of others. Using currency demand equations implied by cointegrating vectors for Canada, the Netherlands, and Austria, I estimate that in 1996 only 30% of U.S. currency was held outside the United States, and as much as 69% of German currency was held outside Germany. The U.S. estimate falls slowly over the 1960s, reaching a low of 5% in the first half of the 1970s, then rises through the early 1980s and again during the 1990s. Given that foreign holdings of the U.S., German, and Swiss currencies constitute the bulk of international currency substitution in the world, I find that, adjusted for inflation, currency substitution roughly tripled from 1986 to 1996.
Human Capital, Unemployment, and Relative Wages in a Global Economy
Authors: Davis Donald R. , Reeve Trevor A.
Published: August 2019

This paper develops a simple framework for examining human capital accumulation, unemployment, and relative wages in a global economy. It builds on the models of Davis (1998a, b) of trade between a flexible-wage America and a rigid-wage Europe. To this it adds a model of human capital accumulation based on Findlay and Kierzkowski (1983). A variety of comparative statics are examined, including changes in educational capital and population, entry of new countries to the trading world, technical change, and a productivity slowdown. We derive the consequences for the skilled-to unskilled wage gap, unemployment, and skill composition.
The Dynamics of Informal Employment
Authors: Ihrig Jane , Moe Karine S.
Published: August 2019

The informal sector, which produces legal goods but does not comply with government regulations, is a functioning part of all economies, with a proportion of the labor force ranging from 17 percent in OECD countries to 60 percent in developing countries. Using a dynamic model that includes an informal sector, this paper illustrates the natural dynamics of the sector, describes how tax policy affects its size, and quantifies the costs of having it. Simulations yield movements in informal employment and output consistent with empirical observations. We find that the U.S. informal sector accounts for about 5 percent of U.S.labor hours and produces about 3 percent of U.S. GDP in steady state. Strategies for reducing the size of the sector are discussed. We find, however, that the distortion from this sector in terms of lifetime loss in an economy's capital stock, is minimal--supporting those who want to keep the informal sector as a functioning part of society.
Finance and Macroeconomic Volatility
Authors: Denizer Cevdet , Iyigun Murat , Owen Ann L.
Published: August 2019

Countries with more developed financial sectors experience less fluctuation in the growth of real per capita output, consumption and investment. However, the manner in which the financial sector develops matters. The relative importance of banks in the financial system is important in explaining consumption and investment volatility, and the proportion of credit provided to the private sector explains the volatility of consumption and output. The main results are generated using fixed-effects estimation with panel data from 70 countries covering the years 1956 through 1998.
The Equivalence of Wage and Price Staggering in Monetary Business Cycle Models
Authors: Edge Rochelle M.
Published: August 2019

Chari, Kehoe, and McGratten's (1998) finding that a standard monetary business cycle model with staggered price setting is unable to generate sufficiently persistent real effects of monetary shocks has engendered a growing literature aimed at developing alternative mechanisms for producing greater persistence. The most popular approach at present in this literature appears to be one in which staggered wage contracts are used as either an alternative or a complement to a staggered price mechanism. This is informed by recent research by Andersen (1998) and Huang and Liu (1998) which finds that the staggered wage model, despite its superficial similarity to the staggered price setup, incorporates a very different microstructure that implies substantially more real persistence. This paper argues that these authors' findings rely heavily on the assumption that identical inputs are used by all firms, and demonstrates that, by assuming firm-specific factor inputs the staggered price model is as capable as the staggered wage model of generating persistent real responses to monetary shocks.
Spaghetti Regionalism
Authors: Freund Caroline L.
Published: August 2019

This paper examines the welfare implications of multiple free trade agreements in a model of imperfect competition. We show that free trade is the unique Nash equilibrium under the simple rule that any two countries can form a bilateral free trade agreement. Specifically, a country is always better off forming a bilateral trade agreement with every other country, irrespective of previous agreements. This suggests that each new preferential free trade agreement may be a step towards multilateral free trade.
Firms and Their Distressed Banks: Lessons from the Norwegian Banking Crises (1988-1991)
Authors: Ongena Steven , Smith David C. , Michalsen Dag
Published: August 2019

We use the near-collapse of the Norwegian banking system during the period 1988-91 to measure the impact of bank distress announcements on the stock prices of firms maintaining a relationship with a distressed bank. We find that although banks experienced large and permanent downward revisions in their equity value during the event period, firms maintaining relationships with these banks faced only small and temporary changes, on average, in stock price. In other words, the aggregate impact of bank distress on listed firms in Norway appears small. Our results stand in contrast to studies that document large welfare declines to similar borrowers after crises hit Japan and other East Asian countries. We hypothesize that because banks in Norway are precluded from maintaining significant ownership control over loan customers, Norwegian firms were freer to choose financing from sources other than their distressed banks. We provide cross-sectional evidence to support this hypothesis.
Information Costs and Home Bias: An Analysis of U.S. Holdings of Foreign Equities
Authors: Ahearne Alan G. , Griever William L. , Warnock Francis E.
Published: August 2019

We test extant hypotheses of the home bias in equity holdings using high quality cross-border holdings data and quantitative measures of barriers to international investment. The effects of direct barriers to international investment, when statistically significant, are not economically meaningful. More important are information asymmetries that owe to the poor quality and low credibility of financial information in many countries. While a direct measure of information costs is not available, some foreign firms have reduced these costs by publicly listing their securities in the United States, where investor protection regulations elicit standardized, credible financial information. A proxy for the reduction in information asymmetriesâ the portion of a country's market that has a public U.S. listingâ is a major determinant of a countryâ s weight in U.S. investors' portfolios. Foreign countries whose firms do not alleviate information costs by opting into the U.S. regulatory environment are more severely underweighted in U.S. equity portfolios.
Border Effects within the NAFTA Countries
Authors: Rogers John Harold , Smith Hayden P.
Published: August 2019

Using consumer price indexes from cities in the U.S., Canada and Mexico, we estimate the "border effect" on U.S.-Mexican relative prices and find that it is nearly an order of magnitude larger than for U.S.-Canadian prices. However, during a very stable sub-period in Mexico (May 1988 to November 1994), the "width" of the U.S.-Mexican border falls dramatically and becomes approximately equal to the U.S.-Canadian border. We then show that when consideration is limited to cities lying geographically very close to the U.S.-Mexican border--San Diego, Los Angeles, Houston, Dallas, Tijuana, Mexicali, Juarez, and Matamoros--the border width falls compared to that estimated with the full sample of U.S. and Mexican cities, but falls only very slightly. We also present evidence that the border effect in U.S.-Mexican prices is not primarily due to the border effect in U.S.-Mexican wages. Finally, using the prices of 276 highly dis-aggregated goods and services, we estimate the variability of relative prices of different items within Mexican cities. This measure of relative price variability declines during the stable peso sub-period, but by less than the decline in nominal and real (i.e., CPI-based) exchange rate variability. Our results are strong evidence of a "nominal border effect" in relative prices within NAFTA, but also indicate that real side influences are important.
Price Level Convergence, Relative Prices, and Inflation in Europe
Authors: Rogers John Harold
Published: August 2019

If price levels are initially different across the euro area, convergence to a common level of prices would imply that inflation will be higher in countries where prices are initially low. Price level convergence thus provides a potential explanation for recent cross-country differences in European inflation, a worrisome development under the ECBs "one-size-fits-all" monetary policy. I present direct evidence on price level convergence in Europe, using a unique data set, and then investigate how much of the recent divergence of national inflation rates can be explained by price level convergence. I show that between 1990 and 1999 prices did become less dispersed in the euro area. Convergence is especially evident for traded goods, and more in the first half of the 1990s than the second half. By some measures, traded goods price dispersion across the euro area is now close to that across U.S. cities. Despite an on-going process of convergence, deviations from the law of one price are large. Finally, I find a statistically-significant and robust negative relationship between the 1999 price level and 2000 inflation rate in Europe, and that the contribution of price level convergence to explaining inflation differentials is often quite important economically. Still, factors other than price convergence explain most of the cross-country inflation differences.
Permanent and Transitory Components of Business Cycles: Their Relative Importance and Dynamic Relationship
Authors: Kim Chang-Jin , Piger Jeremy Max , Startz Richard
Published: August 2019

This paper investigates the relationship between permanent and transitory components of U.S. recessions in an empirical model allowing for business cycle asymmetry. Using a common stochastic trend representation for real GNP and consumption, we divide real GNP into permanent and transitory components, the dynamics of which are different in booms vs. recessions. We find evidence of substantial asymmetries in postwar recessions, and that both the permanent and transitory component have contributed to these recessions. We also allow for the timing of switches from boom to recession for the permanent component to be correlated with switches from boom to recession in the transitory component. The parameter estimates suggest a specific pattern of recessions: switches in the permanent component lead switches in the transitory component both when entering and leaving recessions.
Evidence Uncovered: Long-Term Interest Rates, Monetary Policy, and the Expectations Theory
Authors: Roush Jennifer E.
Published: August 2019

A large body of literature has failed to find conclusive evidence that the expectations theory of the term structure holds in U.S. data. This paper asks more narrowly whether the theory holds conditional on an exogenous change in monetary policy. We argue that previous work on the expectation theory has failed to sufficiently account for interactions between monetary policy and bond markets in the determination of long and short interest rates. Using methods that directly account for this interaction, we find strong evidence supporting a term structure channel for policy that is consistent with the expectations theory. We show that the marginal effect of our consideration for this source of simultaneity bias is significant in uncovering evidence for the theory. We also discuss previous claims that policy regime changes and short-term interest rate smoothing by the Fed accounts for the theory's unconditional failure in light of our findings.
Convergence in Neoclassical Vintage Capital Growth Models
Authors: Berger Brett D.
Published: August 2019

Most growth models assume capital is homogeneous. This contradicts intuition and empirical evidence that the majority of technology is embodied in the capital stock. Classic papers from the late 1950's and 1960's show that non-optimization models display the same asymptotic growth rates whether technology is embodied (vintage capital) or disembodied. This paper uses new numerical optimization techniques to solve for the entire time paths of the key economic variables for optimization versions of the three main types of vintage capital models. The conclusion is that although steady state growth rates may be the same, the transition paths, especially as characterized by convergence rates, vary greatly between the vintage and non-vintage capital models.
Putty-Putty, Two Sector, Vintage Capital Growth Models
Authors: Berger Brett D.
Published: August 2019

Most growth models assume capital is homogeneous with regard to technology. This contradicts intuition and empirical evidence that the majority of technology is embodied in the capital stock. Berger (2001) showed that neoclassical vintage capital (embodied technology) and non-vintage capital (disembodied technology) models have different convergence rates, although identical steady state growth rates. Removing the neoclassical assumption that technological growth is exogenous, I examine two-sector, putty-putty, vintage capital models. Technological growth is tied to investment in the research sector. Savings rates and the allocation of labor differ between the vintage and non-vintage cases. It is shown for the first time that vintage and non-vintage versions of a model can have different steady state growth rates.
Determinants and Repercussions of the Composition of Capital Inflows
Authors: Carlson Mark A. , Hernández Leonardo
Published: August 2019

The Mexican, Asian, and Russian crises of the mid- and late 1990s have renewed the interest among policymakers in the determinants and effects of private capital flows. This paper analyzes whether policies can affect the composition of capital inflows and whether different compositions aggravate crises. We find that, while fundamentals matter, capital controls can affect the mix of capital inflows that countries receive. We find that during the Asian crisis countries with more Yen denominated debt faired worse, while during the Mexican crisis larger short-term debt stocks increased the severity of the crisis.