bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Evaluation of 1-D tracer concentration profile in a small river by means of Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Networks
Authors: Piotrowski A. , Wallis S. G. , Napiórkowski J. J. , Rowiński P. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The prediction of temporal concentration profiles of a transported pollutant in a river is still a subject of ongoing research efforts worldwide. The present paper is aimed at studying the possibility of using Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Networks to evaluate the whole concentration versus time profile at several cross-sections of a river under various flow conditions, using as little information about the river system as possible. In contrast with the earlier neural networks based work on longitudinal dispersion coefficients, this new approach relies more heavily on measurements of concentration collected during tracer tests over a range of flow conditions, but fewer hydraulic and morphological data are needed. The study is based upon 26 tracer experiments performed in a small river in Edinburgh, UK (Murray Burn) at various flow rates in a 540 m long reach. The only data used in this study were concentration measurements collected at 4 cross-sections, distances between the cross-sections and the injection site, time, as well as flow rate and water velocity, obtained according to the data measured at the 1st and 2nd cross-sections. The four main features of concentration versus time profiles at a particular cross-section, namely the peak concentration, the arrival time of the peak at the cross-section, and the shapes of the rising and falling limbs of the profile are modeled, and for each of them a separately designed neural network was used. There was also a variant investigated in which the conservation of the injected mass was assured by adjusting the predicted peak concentration. The neural network methods were compared with the unit peak attenuation curve concept. In general the neural networks predicted the main features of the concentration profiles satisfactorily. The predicted peak concentrations were generally better than those obtained using the unit peak attenuation method, and the method with mass-conservation assured generally performed better than the method that did not account for mass-conservation. Predictions of peak travel time were also better using the neural networks than the unit peak attenuation method. Including more data into the neural network training set clearly improved the prediction of the shapes of the concentration profiles. Similar improvements in peak concentration were less significant and the travel time prediction appeared to be largely unaffected.
Estimating evaporation from a wet grassland
Authors: Gasca-Tucker D. L. , Acreman M. C. , Agnew C. T. , Thompson J. R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Wet grasslands are being restored across the UK and Europe to reinstate their high biodiversity following over 50 years of drainage and conversion to arable agriculture. The water balance of many wet grasslands is dominated by precipitation and evaporation and it is essential to quantify evaporation rates to understand the hydrological functioning of wetlands and the implications for water resources in catchments where wetlands are being restored. This paper considers data from direct measurements of evaporation from the Pevensey Levels wet grassland using the eddy correlation method. Equations are derived to predict actual evaporation using meteorological data on the site or from standard meteorological station observations. It was found that evaporation could be estimated reliably from meteorological variables, such as wind speed, temperature and humidity and by water availability. It was also found that when water availability is high, evaporation is high and may exceed reference evaporation values, raising questions over the deployment of the two-step Penman-Monteith model unless reliable crop coefficients and relative evaporation figures can be determined.
Hydrological prediction in a non-stationary world
Authors: Clarke R. T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The paper discusses evidence that common assumptions in the analysis of hydrological time series (homogeneous variability in random fluctuations about a constant mean value) may not be appropriate for some South American drainage basins. Relatively rapid changes have occurred, and are occurring, as a consequence of replacing mature forest by short crops and urban development. Some research claims to have detected non-linear trends in streamflow in rivers draining the south-eastern part of the sub-continent, together with decadal fluctuations and interannual peaks at ENSO timescales. The paper discusses the implications of such changes for hydrological practices now in widespread and largely unquestioned use.
An investigation of site-similarity approaches to generalisation of a rainfall–runoff model
Authors: Kay A. L. , Jones D. A. , Crooks S. M. , Kjeldsen T. R. , Fung C. F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper investigates a new approach to spatial generalisation of rainfall–runoff model parameters – site-similarity with pooling groups – for use in flood frequency estimation at ungauged sites using continuous simulation. The method is developed for the generalisation of a simple conceptual model, the Probability Distributed Model, with four parameters which require specific estimation. The study is based on a relatively large sample of catchments in Great Britain. Various options are investigated within the approach. In the final version, the pooling group comprises the 10 calibrated catchments closest, in catchment property space, to the target site, where the catchment properties used to define the space differ for each parameter of the model. An analysis that, explicitly, takes account of calibration uncertainty as a source of error enables the uncertainty associated with generalised parameter values to be reduced, justifiably. The approach uses calibration uncertainty estimated through jack-knifing and employs a weighting scheme within pooling groups that uses weights which vary both with distance in the catchment property space and with the calibration uncertainty. Models using generalised values from this approach perform relatively well compared with direct calibration. Although performance appears to be better in some areas of the country than others, there are no obvious relationships between catchment properties and performance.
Development of a high resolution grid-based river flow model for use with regional climate model output
Authors: Bell V. A. , Kay A. L. , Jones R. G. , Moore R. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A grid-based approach to river flow modelling has been developed for regional assessments of the impact of environmental change on hydrologically sensitive systems. The approach also provides a means of assessing, and providing feedback on, the hydrological performance of the land-surface component of a regional climate model (RCM). When combined with information on the evolution of climate, the model can give estimates of the impact of future climate change on river flows and flooding. The high-resolution flow routing and runoff-production model is designed for use with RCM-derived rainfall and potential evaporation (PE), although other sources of gridded rainfall and PE can be employed. Called the "Grid-to-Grid Model", or G2G, it can be configured on grids of different resolution and coverage (a 1 km grid over the UK is used here). The model can simulate flow on an area-wide basis as well as providing estimates of fluvial discharges for input to shelf-sea and ocean models. Configuration of the flow routing model on a relatively high resolution 1 km grid allows modelled river flows to be compared with gauged observations for a variety of catchments across the UK. Modelled flows are also compared with those obtained from a catchment-based model, a parameter-generalised form of the Probability-Distributed Model (PDM) developed for assessing flood frequency. Using RCM re-analysis rainfall and PE as input, the G2G model performs well compared with measured flows at a daily time-step, particularly for high relief catchments. It performs less well for low-relief and groundwater-dominated regions because the dominant model control on runoff production is topography.
Modelling the impact of forest loss on shallow landslide sediment yield, Ijuez river catchment, Spanish Pyrenees
Authors: Bathurst J. C. , Moretti G. , El-Hames A. , Beguería S. , García-Ruiz J. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The SHETRAN model for simulating the sediment yield arising from shallow landslides at the scale of a river catchment was applied to the 45-km2 Ijuez catchment in the central Spanish Pyrenees, to investigate the effect of loss of forest cover on landslide and debris flow incidence and on catchment sediment yield. The application demonstrated how such a model, with a large number of parameters to be evaluated, can be used even when directly measured data are not available: rainfall and discharge time series were generated by reference to other local records and data providing the basis for a soil map were obtained by a short field campaign. Uncertainty bounds for the outputs were determined as a function of the uncertainty in the values of key model parameters. For a four-year period and for the existing forested state of the catchment, a good ability to simulate the observed long term spatial distribution of debris flows (represented by a 45-year inventory) and to determine catchment sediment yield within the range of regional observations was demonstrated. The lower uncertainty bound on simulated landslide occurrence approximated the observed annual rate of landsliding and suggests that landslides provide a relatively minor proportion of the total sediment yield, at least in drier years. A scenario simulation in which the forest cover was replaced by grassland indicated an increase in landsliding but a decrease in the number of landslides which evolve into debris flows and, at least for drier years, a reduction in sediment delivery to the channel network.
Evaluating the risk of non-point source pollution from biosolids: integrated modelling of nutrient losses at field and catchment scales
Authors: Whitehead P. G. , Heathwaite A. L. , Flynn N. J. , Wade A. J. , Quinn P. F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A semi-distributed model, INCA, has been developed to determine the fate and distribution of nutrients in terrestrial and aquatic systems. The model simulates nitrogen and phosphorus processes in soils, groundwaters and river systems and can be applied in a semi-distributed manner at a range of scales. In this study, the model has been applied at field to sub-catchment to whole catchment scale to evaluate the behaviour of biosolid-derived losses of P in agricultural systems. It is shown that process-based models such as INCA, applied at a wide range of scales, reproduce field and catchment behaviour satisfactorily. The INCA model can also be used to generate generic information for risk assessment. By adjusting three key variables: biosolid application rates, the hydrological connectivity of the catchment and the initial P-status of the soils within the model, a matrix of P loss rates can be generated to evaluate the behaviour of the model and, hence, of the catchment system. The results, which indicate the sensitivity of the catchment to flow paths, to application rates and to initial soil conditions, have been incorporated into a Nutrient Export Risk Matrix (NERM).
Integrated Nitrogen CAtchment model (INCA) applied to a tropical catchment in the Atlantic Forest, São Paulo, Brazil
Authors: Ranzini M. , Forti M. C. , Whitehead P. G. , Arcova F. C. S. , de Cicco V. , Wade A. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Stream-water flows and in-stream nitrate and ammonium concentrations in a small (36.7 ha) Atlantic Forest catchment were simulated using the Integrated Nitrogen in CAtchments (INCA) model version 1.9.4. The catchment, at Cunha, is in the Serra do Mar State Park, SE Brazil and is nearly pristine because the nearest major conurbations, São Paulo and Rio, are some 450 km distant. However, intensive farming may increase nitrogen (N) deposition and there are growing pressures for urbanisation. The mean-monthly discharges and NO3-N concentration dynamics were simulated adequately for the calibration and validation periods with (simulated) loss rates of 6.55 kg.ha−1 yr−1 for NO3-N and 3.85 kg.ha−1 yr−1 for NH4-N. To investigate the effects of elevated levels of N deposition in the future, various scenarios for atmospheric deposition were simulated; the highest value corresponded to that in a highly polluted area of Atlantic Forest in Sao Paulo City. It was found that doubling the atmospheric deposition generated a 25% increase in the N leaching rate, while at levels approaching the highly polluted São Paulo deposition rate, five times higher than the current rate, leaching increased by 240%, which would create highly eutrophic conditions, detrimental to downstream water quality. The results indicate that the INCA model can be useful for estimating N concentration and fluxes for different atmospheric deposition rates and hydrological conditions.
Effect of spatial distribution of daily rainfall on interior catchment response of a distributed hydrological model
Authors: Schuurmans J. M. , Bierkens M. F. P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We investigate the effect of spatial variability of daily rainfall on soil moisture, groundwater level and discharge using a physically-based, fully-distributed hydrological model. This model is currently in use with the district water board and is considered to represent reality. We focus on the effect of rainfall spatial variability on day-to-day variability of the interior catchment response, as well as on its effect on the general hydrological behaviour of the catchment. The study is performed in a flat rural catchment (135 km2) in the Netherlands, where the climate is semi-humid (average precipitation 800 mm/year, evapotranspiration 550 mm/year) and rainfall is predominantly stratiform (i.e. large scale). Both range-corrected radar data (resolution 2.5×2.5 km2) as well as data from a dense network of 30 raingauges are used, observed for the period March–October 2004. Eight different rainfall scenarios, either spatially distributed or spatially uniform, are used as input for the hydrological model. The main conclusions from this study are: (i) using a single raingauge as rainfall input carries a great risk for the prediction of discharge, groundwater level and soil moisture, especially if the raingauge is situated outside the catchment; (ii) taking into account the spatial variability of rainfall instead of using areal average rainfall as input for the model is needed to get insight into the day-to-day spatial variability of discharge, groundwater level and soil moisture content; (iii) to get insight into the general behaviour of the hydrological system it is sufficient to use correct predictions of areal average rainfall over the catchment.
Uncertainties in selected river water quality data
Authors: Rode M. , Suhr U.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Monitoring of surface waters is primarily done to detect the status and trends in water quality and to identify whether observed trends arise from natural or anthropogenic causes. Empirical quality of river water quality data is rarely certain and knowledge of their uncertainties is essential to assess the reliability of water quality models and their predictions. The objective of this paper is to assess the uncertainties in selected river water quality data, i.e. suspended sediment, nitrogen fraction, phosphorus fraction, heavy metals and biological compounds. The methodology used to structure the uncertainty is based on the empirical quality of data and the sources of uncertainty in data (van Loon et al., 2005). A literature review was carried out including additional experimental data of the Elbe river. All data of compounds associated with suspended particulate matter have considerable higher sampling uncertainties than soluble concentrations. This is due to high variability within the cross section of a given river. This variability is positively correlated with total suspended particulate matter concentrations. Sampling location has also considerable effect on the representativeness of a water sample. These sampling uncertainties are highly site specific. The estimation of uncertainty in sampling can only be achieved by taking at least a proportion of samples in duplicates. Compared to sampling uncertainties, measurement and analytical uncertainties are much lower. Instrument quality can be stated well suited for field and laboratory situations for all considered constituents. Analytical errors can contribute considerably to the overall uncertainty of river water quality data. Temporal autocorrelation of river water quality data is present but literature on general behaviour of water quality compounds is rare. For meso scale river catchments (500–3000 km2) reasonable yearly dissolved load calculations can be achieved using biweekly sample frequencies. For suspended sediments none of the methods investigated produced very reliable load estimates when weekly concentrations data were used. Uncertainties associated with loads estimates based on infrequent samples will decrease with increasing size of rivers.
Identifying runoff processes on the plot and catchment scale
Authors: Schmocker-Fackel P. , Naef F. , Scherrer S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Rainfall-runoff models that adequately represent the real hydrological processes and that do not have to be calibrated, are needed in hydrology. Such a model would require information about the runoff processes occurring in a catchment and their spatial distribution. Therefore, the aim of this article is (1) to develop a methodology that allows the delineation of dominant runoff processes (DRP) in the field and with a GIS, and (2) to illustrate how such a map can be used in rainfall-runoff modelling. Soil properties were assessed of 44 soil profiles in two Swiss catchments. On some profiles, sprinkling experiments were performed and soil-water levels measured. With these data, the dominant runoff processes (DRP) were determined using the Scherrer and Naef (2003) process decision scheme. At the same time, a simplified method was developed to make it possible to determine the DRP only on the basis of maps of the soil, topography and geology. In 67% of the soil profiles, the two methods indicated the same processes; in 24% with minor deviations. By transforming the simplified method into a set of rules that could be introduced into a GIS, the distributions of the different DRPs in two catchments could be delineated automatically so that maps of the dominant runoff processes could be produced. These maps agreed well with manually derived maps and field observations. Flood-runoff volumes could be quite accurately predicted on the basis of the rainfall measured and information on the water retention capacity contained in the DRP map. This illustrates the potential of the DRP maps for defining the infiltration parameters used in rainfall-runoff models.
Evaluation of bias-correction methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts
Authors: Hashino T. , Bradley A. A. , Schwartz S. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Ensemble prediction systems are used operationally to make probabilistic streamflow forecasts for seasonal time scales. However, hydrological models used for ensemble streamflow prediction often have simulation biases that degrade forecast quality and limit the operational usefulness of the forecasts. This study evaluates three bias-correction methods for ensemble streamflow volume forecasts. All three adjust the ensemble traces using a transformation derived with simulated and observed flows from a historical simulation. The quality of probabilistic forecasts issued when using the three bias-correction methods is evaluated using a distributions-oriented verification approach. Comparisons are made of retrospective forecasts of monthly flow volumes for a north-central United States basin (Des Moines River, Iowa), issued sequentially for each month over a 48-year record. The results show that all three bias-correction methods significantly improve forecast quality by eliminating unconditional biases and enhancing the potential skill. Still, subtle differences in the attributes of the bias-corrected forecasts have important implications for their use in operational decision-making. Diagnostic verification distinguishes these attributes in a context meaningful for decision-making, providing criteria to choose among bias-correction methods with comparable skill.
Assessing the model performance of an integrated hydrological and biogeochemical model for discharge and nitrate load predictions
Authors: Pohlert T. , Breuer L. , Huisman J. A. , Frede H.-G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this study, we evaluate the performance of the SWAT-N model, a modified version of the widely used SWAT version, for discharge and nitrate predictions at the mesoscale Dill catchment (Germany) for a 5-year period. The underlying question is, whether the model efficiency is sufficient for scenario analysis of land-use changes on both water quantity and quality. The Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA) algorithm is used to calibrate the model for daily discharge at the catchments outlet. Model performance is assessed with a split-sampling as well as a proxy-basin test using recorded hydrographs of four additional gauges located within the catchment. The efficiency regarding nitrate load simulation is assessed without further calibration on a daily, log-daily, weekly, and monthly basis as compared to observations derived from an intensive sampling campaign conducted at the catchments outlet. A new approach is employed to test the spatial consistency of the model, where simulated longitudinal profiles of nitrate concentrations were compared with observed longitudinal profiles. It is concluded that the model efficiency of SWAT-N is sufficient for the assessment of scenarios for daily discharge predictions. SWAT-N can be employed without further calibration for nitrate load simulations on both a weekly and monthly basis with an acceptable degree of accuracy. However, the model efficiency for daily nitrate load is insufficient, which can be attributed to both data uncertainty (i.e. point-source effluents and actual farming practise) as well as structural errors. The simulated longitudinal profiles meet the observations reasonably well, which suggests that the model is spatially consistent.
Projeto Vida no Vale: universal access to water and sanitation in the North East of Minas Gerais (Brazil)
Authors: Kauark-Leite L. , Vinçon-Leite B. , Deroubaix J. F. , Loireau A. , Silveira D. , Haddad E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the rural areas of the developing countries, the access to water supply and sanitation services is still largely inadequate. Poor governance of the water sector is frequently singled out as a cause and reforms are required. Studies analyzing the great diversity of restructuring efforts currently being undertaken in the water sector have not succeeded in determining the most appropriate institutional and economic framework for such reforms. Moreover they underline the lack of documentation on actual projects and call for concrete models and tools for improving water and sanitation services (WSS) and for adapting water utility practice to real conditions. In this context, the Vida no Vale (Life in the Valley) project is aimed at bringing universal access to WSS for all inhabitants of both urban and rural areas, in the north-eastern area of the Brazilian State of Minas Gerais. The project takes sustainable development as its guiding principle, and relies on the joint implementation of an innovative technical design, a governance model involving public participation and subsidiarity, and an economic structure combining financial viability and social equity. Designed at a consistent geographical and hydrological scale, it includes the creation of a regional subsidiary of the existing state water company as a keystone element. The institutional organisation also relies on the creation of a public board consisting of the 92 municipalities of the project region and of the State of Minas Gerais. This board will be in charge of the system's governance. This paper presents the first step of the project (2006), consisting of a feasibility study and the implementation of 9 pilot sub-projects. During the feasibility study, the supply, demand and capacity to pay for water services were defined, existing infrastructure appraised, the necessary amount of investment assessed and an innovative operational model and a sustainable management system, including civil society participation, defined. The main features of the Vida no Vale project have been tested in 9 pilot sub-projects, and implemented in municipalities chosen for their low Human Development Index and for the lack of WSS, in both urban and rural areas. A second phase corresponding to the project's final implementation will run from 2007 to 2011. The Vida no Vale project design resulted in a logical and extensive framework which could be used for developing similar WSS projects in other poor, rural regions, its adaptiveness being a key feature for taking into account the specific, local conditions.
Estimation of streamflow by slope regional dependency function
Authors: Altunkaynak A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Kriging is one of the most developed methodologies in the regional variable modeling. However, one of its drawbacks is that the influence radius can not be determined by this method. In which distance and in what ratio that pivot station is influenced from adjacent sites is rather often encountered problem in practical applications. Regional weighting functions obtained from available data consist of several broken lines. Each line has different slopes which represent the similarity and the contribution of adjacent stations as a weighting coefficient. The approach in this study is called as Slope Regional Dependency Function (SRDF). The main idea of this approach is to express the variability in value differences γ and distances together. Originally proposed SRDF and Trigonometric Point Cumulative Semi-Variogram (TPCSV) methods are used to predict streamflow. TPCSV and Point Cumulative Semi-Variogram (PCSV) approaches are also compared with each other. Prediction performance of all the three methods revealed a relative error less than 10% which is acceptable for most engineering applications. It is shown that SRDF outperforms PCSV and TPCSV with very high differences. It can be used for missing data completion, determination of measurement sites location, calculation of influence radius, and determination of regional variable potential. The proposed method is applied for the 38 stream flow measurement sites located in the Mississippi River basin.
Impacts of ditch cleaning on hydrological processes in a drained peatland forest
Authors: Koivusalo H. , Ahti E. , Laurén A. , Kokkonen T. , Karvonen T. , Nevalainen R. , Finér L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. One fourth of the forests in Finland are growing on drained peatlands. Forestry operations such as ditch network maintenance increase the export of suspended solids and nutrients, and deteriorate water quality in lakes and rivers. Water protection presupposes an understanding of how forestry operations affect peatland hydrology. The objective was to study the hydrological impacts of ditch cleaning on the basis of water table level and runoff measurements from two pairs of artificially delineated catchments in drained peatland forests in Finland. Data from treated and control catchments indicated that ditch cleaning lowered the level of the water table in sites where a shallow peat layer was underlain by mineral soil. In sites with deep peat formation, the water table showed no detectable response to ditch cleaning. Runoff data suggested that annual runoff clearly increased after ditch cleaning, which was in conflict with the previously reported small impacts of ditch network maintenance. The hydrological model FEMMA was calibrated and applied to assess the conformity of the data and the experimental setup. In the model application, the catchments were assumed to behave as independent hydrological units. However, assessment of the model results and the measurements suggested that ditch cleaning had an impact on hydrological measurements in both treated and control catchments. It appeared that the independence assumption was violated and there was a hydrological connection between the artificial catchments and, therefore, the results of the data analysis were considered misleading. Finally, a numerical experiment based on the model simulations was conducted to explain how the assumed relationship between soil moisture and transpiration is reflected in the modelled runoff. Modelled runoff decreases and evaporation increases when ditches are cleaned in poorly drained sites, where the initial ditch depth is small and the depth of a highly conductive topsoil layer is low. The numerical experiment can be applied to assess when ditch cleaning does not improve evapotranspiration and is unnecessary.
Runoff thresholds in derived flood frequency distributions
Authors: Gioia A. , Iacobellis V. , Manfreda S. , Fiorentino M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In general, different mechanisms may be identified as responsible of runoff generation during ordinary events or extraordinary events at the basin scale. In a simplified scheme these mechanisms may be represented by different runoff thresholds. In this context, the derived flood frequency model, based on the effect of partial contributing areas on peak flow, proposed by Iacobellis and Fiorentino (2000), was generalized by providing a new formulation of the derived distribution where two runoff components are explicitly considered. The model was tested on a group of basins in Southern Italy characterized by annual maximum flood distributions highly skewed. The application of the proposed model provided good results in terms of descriptive ability. Model parameters were also found to be well correlated with geomorphological basin descriptors. Two different threshold mechanisms, associated respectively to ordinary and extraordinary events, were identified. In fact, we found that ordinary floods are mostly due to rainfall events exceeding a threshold infiltration rate in a small source area, while the so-called outlier events, responsible of the high skewness of flood distributions, are triggered when severe rainfalls exceed a threshold storage in a large portion of the basin.
A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis
Authors: Haberlandt U. , Ebner von Eschenbach A.-D. , Buchwald I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.
Sensitivity of the West African hydrological cycle in ORCHIDEE to infiltration processes
Authors: d'Orgeval T. , Polcher J. , de Rosnay P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The aim of this article is to test the sensitivity of the West African hydrological cycle to infiltration processes and to river reinfiltration pathways. This is done through sensitivity experiments to both inputs and paramterization settings of the ORCHIDEE Land-Surface Model. The parameterizations to take into account the effects of flat areas, ponds and floodplains on surface infiltration, and the effect of roots and deep-soil compactness on infiltration are first described. The sensitivity analysis to parameterization settings shows that the surface infiltration processes have a stronger impact in the soudano-sahelian region and more generally in semi-arid African regions, whereas the rootzone and deep-soil infiltration also play a role in the guinean and intermediate regions between arid and humid ones. In the equatorial and semi-humid regions, infiltration processes generally play a minor role. The infiltration parameterizations may explain part of the difference between simulated and observed river discharge in semi-arid and intermediate basins. The sensitivity analysis to the Land-Surface Model inputs shows that different sources of uncertainty might also explain part of the error. Indeed, the precipitation forcing in the whole West African region, the long-term storage in the soudano-sahelian region, the soil types in the guinean region and the vegetation types in the equatorial region are significant sources of errors. Therefore, observations and analyses of small scale infiltration processes as well as continuous measurements of river discharges in West Africa are essential to ensure the reliability of future calibration for the infiltration parameterizations.
Strong increases in flood frequency and discharge of the River Meuse over the late Holocene: impacts of long-term anthropogenic land use change and climate variability
Authors: Ward P. J. , Renssen H. , Aerts J. C. J. H. , van Balen R. T. , Vandenberghe J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In recent years the frequency of high-flow events on the Meuse (northwest Europe) has been relatively great, and flooding has become a major research theme. To date, research has focused on observed discharge records of the last century and simulations of the coming century. However, it is difficult to delineate changes caused by human activities (land use change and greenhouse gas emissions) and natural fluctuations on these timescales. To address this problem we coupled a climate model (ECBilt-CLIO-VECODE) and a hydrological model (STREAM) to simulate daily Meuse discharge in two time-slices: 4000–3000 BP (natural situation), and 1000–2000 AD (includes anthropogenic influence). For 4000–3000 BP the basin is assumed to be almost fully forested; for 1000–2000 AD we reconstructed land use based on historical sources. For 1000–2000 AD the simulated mean annual discharge (260.9 m3 s−1) is significantly higher than for 4000–3000 BP (244.8 m3 s−1), and the frequency of large high-flow events (discharge >3000 m3 s−1) is higher (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 65 years). On a millennial timescale almost all of this increase can be ascribed to land use changes (especially deforestation); the effects of climatic change are insignificant. For the 20th Century, the simulated mean discharge (270.0 m3 s−1) is higher than in any other century studied, and is ca. 2.5% higher than in the 19th Century (despite an increase in evapotranspiration). Furthermore, the recurrence time of large high-flow events is almost twice as short as under natural conditions (recurrence time decreases from 77 to 40 years). On this timescale climate change (strong increase in annual and winter precipitation) overwhelmed land use change as the dominant forcing mechanism.
Institutional design and regime effectiveness in transboundary river management – the Elbe water quality regime
Authors: Dombrowsky I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The literature on transboundary river management suggests that institutions play an important role in bringing about cooperation. However, knowledge about how such institutions should be designed in order to do so remains limited. One way to learn more about adequate institutional design is to assess the effectiveness of existing regimes, and to trace the causal relationships that lead to the respective outcomes. In order to gain further insights into the relationship between institutional design and regime effectiveness, this paper presents a study on the water quality regime of the International Commission for the Protection of the Elbe (ICPE). The analysis is based on a review of pertinent documents and ten qualitative interviews with Czech and German Commission members and NGO representatives. Particular emphasis has been put on determining the ICPE's specific contribution and the no-regime counterfactual as well as on the perceived expediency of the institutional arrangements. The study shows overall that the countries were relatively successful in improving water quality in the Elbe basin. However, this outcome can only partly be attributed to the ICPE itself. Furthermore, the ICPE's contribution towards achieving the various goals varied significantly between the different areas of activity: it was relatively significant where the main responsibility for action lay with the public authorities, such as in the area of wastewater treatment and the establishment of an international alarm plan and model, but was practically non-existent in the reduction of non-point pollution from agriculture, where success depended on the behavior of individual private actors (farmers). The commission contributed towards problem solving by serving as a forum for the joint identification of priorities for action from a basin-wide perspective. The resulting international obligations increased the power of national water administrations and their access to funds. At the same time, the Commission's reporting to the public served as an enforcement mechanism. From a methodological point of view, the paper highlights the opportunities and limitations of a combined quantitative and qualitative approach to determining regime effectiveness.
Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America
Authors: McBean E. , Motiee H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the threshold of the appearance of global warming from theory to reality, extensive research has focused on predicting the impact of potential climate change on water resources using results from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This research carries this further by statistical analyses of long term meteorological and hydrological data. Seventy years of historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes of North America are developed using long term regression analyses and Mann-Kendall statistics. The results generated by the two statistical procedures are in agreement and demonstrate that many of these variables are experiencing statistically significant increases over a seven-decade period. The trend lines of streamflows in the three rivers of St. Clair, Niagara and St. Lawrence, and precipitation levels over four of the five Great Lakes, show statistically significant increases in flows and precipitation. Further, precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from GCMs and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are higher than GCM predictions for Lakes Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted. Given the general agreement as derived from very different procedures, predictions extrapolated from historical trends and from GCMs, there is evidence that hydrologic changes particularly for the precipitation in the Great Lakes Basin may be demonstrating influences arising from global warming and climate change.
Temporal variability of subsurface stormflow formation
Authors: Kienzler P. M. , Naef F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Subsurface stormflow (SSF) can play a key role for the runoff generation at hillslopes. Quantifications of SSF suffer from the limited ability to predict how SSF is formed at a particular hillslope and how it varies in time and space. This study concentrates on the temporal variability of SSF formation. Controlled sprinkling experiments at three experimental slopes were replicated with varying precipitation intensity and varying antecedent precipitation. SSF characteristics were observed with hydrometric measurements and tracer experiments. SSF response was affected in different ways and to varying degree by changes of precipitation intensity and antecedent precipitation. The study showed that the influence of antecedent precipitation on SSF response depends on how SSF is formed at a particular hillslope. As formation of SSF was hardly influenced by the increase of precipitation intensity subsurface flow rates were not increased by higher intensity. However, timing and relevance of subsurface flow response changed substantially at different precipitation intensities, because saturation and flow formation occurred above the soil-bedrock interface, but also within the topsoil depending on precipitation intensity.
The decreasing importance of acidification episodes with recovery from acidification: an analysis of the 30-year record from Birkenes, Norway
Authors: Wright R. F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The 30-year record 1975–2004 of weekly samples of streamwater chemistry from Birkenes, Norway, shows 106 acid episodes below the threshold of ANC−50 µeq l−1. The frequency, severity and duration of episodes have diminished since about 1990 due to chemical recovery following reduced deposition of sulphur. In particular SO4-driven episodes in the first runoff following drought have become less intense and less frequent, whereas episodes driven by climate (wind, high flow) continue. The data show significant empirical relationships between strength of the driver, degree of chemical recovery, and severity of ANC depression.
Modelling the impacts of European emission and climate change scenarios on acid-sensitive catchments in Finland
Authors: Posch M. , Aherne J. , Forsius M. , Fronzek S. , Veijalainen N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The dynamic hydro-chemical Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments (MAGIC) was used to predict the response of 163 Finnish lake catchments to future acidic deposition and climatic change scenarios. Future deposition was assumed to follow current European emission reduction policies and a scenario based on maximum (technologically) feasible reductions (MFR). Future climate (temperature and precipitation) was derived from the HadAM3 and ECHAM4/OPYC3 general circulation models under two global scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC: A2 and B2). The combinations resulting in the widest range of future changes were used for simulations, i.e., the A2 scenario results from ECHAM4/OPYC3 (highest predicted change) and B2 results from HadAM3 (lowest predicted change). Future scenarios for catchment runoff were obtained from the Finnish watershed simulation and forecasting system. The potential influence of future changes in surface water organic carbon concentrations was also explored using simple empirical relationships based on temperature and sulphate deposition. Surprisingly, current emission reduction policies hardly show any future recovery; however, significant chemical recovery of soil and surface water from acidification was predicted under the MFR emission scenario. The direct influence of climate change (temperate and precipitation) on recovery was negligible, as runoff hardly changed; greater precipitation is offset by increased evapotranspiration due to higher temperatures. However, two exploratory empirical DOC models indicated that changes in sulphur deposition or temperature could have a confounding influence on the recovery of surface waters from acidification, and that the corresponding increases in DOC concentrations may offset the recovery in pH due to reductions in acidifying depositions.
Predicting long-term recovery of a strongly acidified stream using MAGIC and climate models (Litavka, Czech Republic)
Authors: Hardekopf D. W. , Horecký J. , Kopáček J. , Stuchlík E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Two branches forming the headwaters of a stream in the Czech Republic were studied. Both streams have similar catchment characteristics and historical deposition; however one is rain-fed and strongly affected by acid atmospheric deposition, the other spring-fed and only moderately acidified. The MAGIC model was used to reconstruct past stream water and soil chemistry of the rain-fed branch, and predict future recovery up to 2050 under current proposed emissions levels. A future increase in air temperature calculated by a regional climate model was then used to derive climate-related scenarios to test possible factors affecting chemical recovery up to 2100. Macroinvertebrates were sampled from both branches, and differences in stream chemistry were reflected in the community structures. According to modelled forecasts, recovery of the rain-fed branch will be gradual and limited, and continued high levels of sulphate release from the soils will continue to dominate stream water chemistry, while scenarios related to a predicted increase in temperature will have little impact. The likelihood of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch was evaluated considering the predicted extent of chemical recovery. The results suggest that the possibility of colonization of species from the spring-fed branch to the rain-fed will be limited to only the acid-tolerant stonefly, caddisfly and dipteran taxa in the modelled period.