bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Tradable Cumulative C02 Permits and Global Warming Control*
Authors: Kosobud Richard F. , Daly Thomas A. , South David W. , Quinn Kevin G.
Published: May 2011

As an alternative to current global warming policy proposals to freeze greenhouse gas “emissions” at their 1990 levels by the year 2000, this study examines the implications of a long-run objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas “concentrations” at low to moderate risk levels by the year 2100. The current proposals to control emissions slow but do not end the build-up of concentrations, and they could imply costly short-term adjustments of the energy industries. Our objective is to explore an alternative policy that could (1) stabilize induced climate change, (2) provide for the creation of international “property rights” in the stratosphere by means of tradable emission permits, and (3) be more intertemporally cost-effective. Our method for analyzing this effort is a tested, dynamic, price sensitive, global economic model to which is linked a climate change submodel. Together these models enable us to project price and quantity time paths of energy, climate, and tradable permit variables under alternative policy actions.
Environmentally Responsible Energy Pricing*
Authors: Viscusi W. Kip , Magat Wesley A. , Carlin Alan , Dreyfus Mark K.
Published: May 2011

This paper assesses the value of the non-global warming externalities associated with energy use. The estimates of the full social cost energy prices based on this “no regrets” approach imply environmental costs that often greatly exceed current tax amounts. The midpoint estimates suggest that the price of coal is most out of line with its efficient level. Natural gas is currently overtaxed, and gasoline is appropriately taxed. There is also a substantial range of uncertainty embodied in the no regrets estimates.
Energy-Efficiency Investments and Public Policy
Authors: Jaffe Adam B. , Stavins Robert N.
Published: May 2011

Concern about carbon dioxide as a greenhouse gas has focused renewed attention on energy conservation because fossilfuel combustion is a major source of CO2 emissions. Since it is generally acknowledged that energy use could be significantly reduced through broader adoption of existing technologies, policy makers need to know how effective various policy instruments might be in accelerating the diffusion of these technologies. We examine the factors that determine the rate of diffusion, focusing on (i) potential market failures: information problems, principal-agent slippage, and unobserved costs, and (ii) explanations that do not represent market failures: private information costs, high discount rates, and heterogeneity among potential adopters. Through a series of simulations we explore how alternative policy instruments—both economic incentives and more conventional, direct regulations—could hasten the diffusion of energy-conserving technologies.
Measuring Economic Markets for Imported Crude Oil*
Authors: Sauer Douglas G.
Published: May 2011

A previous paper by Weiner (1991) noted that many policy issues involving crude oil imports hinge on whether crude oil markets are unified or regionalized. Weiner observed that the literature on crude oil markets has paid little attention to the regionalization issue. However, a generalized literature addressing market delineation has been evolving for some time and recent advances in applied time series analysis have produced multivariate testing procedures which avoid most of the problems of the bivariate price correlation analyses previously employed in analyzing regionalization issues. This paper advances the work of Weiner by incorporating cointegration relationships into multivariate time series models and using these models to examine the extent of regionalization in the world market for crude oil imports. The empirical results reported here lend support to Adelman's characterization of the world oil market as “one great pool” (Adelman 1984).
Business Cycles and the Behavior of Energy Prices*
Authors: Serletis Apostolos , Hulleman Vaughn
Published: May 2011

This paper tests the theory of storage—the hypothesis that the marginal convenience yield on inventory falls at a decreasing rate as inventory increases in energy markets (crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gas markets). We use the Fama and French (1988) indirect test, based on the relative variation in spot and futures prices. The results suggest that the theory holds for the energy markets.
Tax Reform and Energy in the Philippines Economy: A General Equilibrium Computation
Authors: Boyd Roy G. , Doroodian Khosrow , Udomvaech Prapassorn
Published: May 2011

This paper examines how energy tax cuts, offset with income tax increases, affect production, consumption, and total welfare in the Philippines economy. Our results show that energy tax cuts expand the energy and nonmetal mining sectors, butdecrease output in the manufacturing, agricultural, andmetal mining sectors. Consumption of all goods and services combined increases as the amount of energy tax reduction increases. Our welfare results, however, are mixed. While the welfare of the mid- and high-income levels increases, that of the lowest income level decreases. These results are robust with respect to changes in the elasticity of substitution in energy production as well as the elasticity of substitution in consumer demand. From the standpoint of economic efficiency, a policy such as this would enhance growth and aggregate income. From an equity standpoint, however, this policy is highly regressive in spite of the fact that the richest households pay proportionately more to finance the energy tax reduction.
The Social Costs of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: An Expected Value Approach*
Authors: Fankhauser Samuel
Published: May 2011

This paper provides an order-of-magnitude assessment of the marginal social costs of greenhouse gas emissions. The calculations are based on a stochastic greenhouse damage model in which key parameters are random. This allows a closer representation of current scientific understanding and also enables calculation of a damage probability distribution. Thus, we account explicitly for the uncertain nature of the global warming phenomenon. We estimate social costs of C02 emissions in the order of 20 $/tC for emissions between 1991 and 2000, a value which rises over time to about 28 $/tC in 20212030. Similar figures for CH4 and N20 are also provided. As a consequence of the prevailing uncertainty, the standard deviation of the estimates is rather high. The distribution is positively skewed, which implies that the currently predominant method of using best guess values will lead to an underestimation of the expected costs of emissions.
Why the Principle Over-Predicts Actual Values*
Authors: McDonald Stephen L.
Published: May 2011

Two articles previously published in this Journal (Watkins 1992 and Adelman 1993) reported that the valuation version of the Hotelling Principle over-predicts in-ground values of oil and gas reserves by a factor of approximately two. This paper shows these results are to be expected once it is understood that: (1) the Principle assumes individual operators have the effective freedom to schedule extraction rates so as to make net prices rise at the rate of discount, regardless of the course of gross (wellhead) prices; and (2) the long-prevailing system of regulating oil well spacing and extraction rates in the United States and Canada, designed to deal with the common pool problem, effectively denies operators that freedom. The discrepancy between actual in-ground values and those predicted by the Hotelling Principle suggests the benefits to be had by substituting compulsory reservoir unitization cum manager freedom for the current system of regulation.
The Impact of Sulfur Limits on Fuel Demand and Electricity Prices in Britain*
Authors: Newbery David M.
Published: May 2011

By the year 1996, about one-quarter of Britain's electricity will be generated from gas, compared to zero in 1992, displacing coal. This switch is required by 2000 to meet the EC and UN mandated sulfur emissions limits, but was advanced by the imperfect market created by privatisation. This paper examines the economics of Flue Gas Desulfurisation, and argues that without the right to trade emissions permits, FGD may run at only 17% load because of premature investment in gas generation. Tradable permits have a large impact on profits for the generators and British Coal. At present the pool fails to schedule plant on avoidable cost, and electricity prices are likely to be set by the price of gas, not the emissions limits, though gas prices may rise with tighter future limits.
Emission Costs, Consumer Bypass and Efficient Pricing of Electricity
Authors: Chi-Keung Woo , Hobbs Benjamin , Orans Ren , Pupp Roger , Horii Brian
Published: May 2011

Electricity generation causes external costs because of the emission of air pollutants. Pricing an electric utility's service at the sum of the utility's marginal generation cost and marginal emission cost, however, is inefficient due to “bypass” by large industrial customers and the need to maintain the utility's financial viability. This paper derives the optimal tax on emission and efficient prices for retail service to two customer classes, one of which has the option to self-generate. These rules are used to evaluate the pricing proposals made in a recent rate case in California. These proposals are shown to be inefficient, in that they encourage over-consumption by residential customers who do not have access to alternative sources of electricity supply.
Incentive Effects of Environmental Adders in Electric Power Auctions*
Authors: Bushnell James B. , Oren Shmuel S.
Published: May 2011

We make a systematic examination of the options for incorporating environmental adders into auctions for non-utility generation. To date, adders have been a popular tool of some regulators for the planning process, but have not been embraced as a tool for operations. We argue that any rational implementation of adders into a competitive acquisition process will have at least an indirect effect on the operations of the resulting electric system. If adders are to be employed, regulators must therefore be comfortable enough with them to use them explicitly in both the operation and selection of generation resources.
Integrated Resource Planning with Environmental Costs in Developing Countries
Authors: Fernando Chitru S. , Kleindorfer Paul R. , Munasinghe Mohan
Published: May 2011

This paper presents an integrated approach to dealing with the twin problems of environmental degradation and capital costs associated with the rapid expansion of electric power in developing countries. The integrated resource planning framework developed here calls for a careful balancing of supply and demand side options. Interruptible technologies are an important option in those developing countries where capital is scarcer and shortage costs are higher. When environmental costs of conventional generating technologies are included, the balance shifts even further in favor of demand side measures. This integrated perspective at the planning phase must be complemented by pricing policies that accurately reflect the cost of providing electric power, and organization structures that provide strong incentives for efficient operation.
Macroeconomic Responses to Oil Price Increases and Decreases in Seven OECD Countries
Authors: Mork Knut Anton , Olsen ystein , Mysen Hans Terje
Published: May 2011

The correlations between oil-price movements and GDP fluctuations are investigated for the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany (West), France, the United Kingdom, and Norway. The responses to price increases and decreases are allowed to be asymmetric. Bivariate correlations as well as partial correlations within a reduced-form macroeconomic model are considered. The correlations with oil-price increases are negative and significant for most countries, but positive for Norway, whose oil-producing sector is large relative to the economy as a whole. The correlations with oil-price decreases are mostly positive, but significant only for the United States and Canada. Most countries show evidence of asymmetric effects, with Norway again as an exception.
Income Distribution Effects of Electric Utility DSM Programs
Authors: Sutherland Ronald J.
Published: May 2011

This paper uses the Residential Energy Consumption Survey undertaken by the Energy Information Administration in 1990 to estimate the statistical association between household income and participation in electric utility energy conservation programs and the association between participation and the electricity consumption. The results indicate that utility rebates, energy audits, load management programs and other conservation measures tend to be undertaken at greater frequency by high income households than by low income households. Participants in conservation programs tend to occupy relatively new and energy efficient residences and undertake conservation measures other than utility programs, which suggests that utility sponsored programs are substitutes for other conservation investments. Electricity consumption during 1990 is not significantly less for households participating in utility programs than for nonparticipants, which also implies that utility conservation programs are displacing other conservation investments. Apparently, utility programs are not avoiding the costs of new construction and instead are transferring wealth, particularly to high income participating households.
Incomplete International Climate Agreements: Optimal Carbon Taxes, Market Failures and Welfare Effects*
Authors: Golombek Rolf , Braten Jan
Published: May 2011

This paper provides an empirical study of optimal carbon taxes and welfare effects under incomplete international climate agreements when there are market failures in the cooperating countries. The objective of the group of countries taking part in the international climate agreement is to design carbon taxes that maximize their aggregate net income, subject to a constraint on global C02 emissions. We use a numerical energy model to study scenarios that differ with respect to types of C02 taxes and countries taking part in the climate agreement. We also discuss the impact on regional net income following from different international climate agreements.
Rethinking Contracts for Purchasing Power: The Economic Advantages of Dispatchability
Authors: Dorris Gary W. , Mount Timothy
Published: May 2011

The purpose of this article is to evaluate and compare the incremental cost of purchased power from non-utility generators (NUG) versus utility built generation considering a variety of contracts for energy purchases. Four types of contracts are evaluated: (1) Flat Rate Produce and Pay, (2) On-Peak/Off-Peak, (3) Basic Dispatchable, and 4) Actual Cycle Energy Dispatch. An analysis conducted for a representative utility calculates the effects of NUG power purchases on a utility's energy production costs and the cost of new debt issuances. Dispatchable energy contracts are shown to provide significant economic and operating advantages over Flat Rate and On-Peak/Off-Peak energy contracts. The analysis also shows that NUG purchases based on the actual costs of dispatch cost less than utility-built generation financed at the utility's weighted average cost of capital. NUG contracts for a utility which already has significant risk exposure are shown to parallel a capital lease. Under these conditions, additional payment obligations to NUGs increase the cost of new debt issuances making an equity issuance for utility built capacity a more attractive option.
Reactive Power is a Cheap Constraint
Authors: Kahn Edward , Baldick Ross
Published: May 2011

Hogan (1993) has proposed a version of marginal cost pricing for electricity transmission transactions that include a component for reactive power to support voltage at demand nodes. His examples support the notion that the cost of satisfying voltage constraints can be quite high. We show that in his simplest example the price on this constraint results from an uneconomic and artificial characterization of the problem, namely an inefficient and unnecessarily constrained dispatch. By eliminating this characterization, the price of reactive power falls to a very modest level. Our counterexample has implications for the institutional arrangements under which transmission pricing reform will take place. We believe that environment will be an open access competitive setting, where dispatch is still controlled by one group of participants. Manipulation of marginal transmission costs becomes quite feasible in complex networks through subtle changes to dispatch. Therefore an open access regime using marginal cost pricing must involve either some kind of monitoring and audit function to detect potential abuses, or alternatively, institutionalrestructuring to eliminate conflicts of interest.
Refining in the Far East: Its Potential and Constraints*
Authors: Lee Hoesung , Eklof Dennis
Published: May 2011

This paper explores the outlook for oil product demand growth in the Far East, and the implications for future refinery capacity requirements. These requirements are compared to the industries announced expansion plans to evaluate potential future market positions. The potential for increased supplies from other geographic regions, mainly Middle East, is also explored. Finally, estimates of the required capital investments are discussed.
The Role of Futures and Other Energy-Linked Financial Instruments
Authors: Rogers Matt , Treat John Elting
Published: May 2011

Significant volatility has become a way of life in the oil markets. Traders find this level of market volatility attractive. Managers find the uncertainty inherent in this complex and volatile environment both unsettling and expensive. It creates significant economic risk, managerial risk, and capabilities risk. The dramatic explosion in the size and sophistication of oil-linked financial instruments represents a response to volatility. These markets have forced companies to adopt new strategies, business processes, information systems, and organizational structures to remain competitive. We expect the future will see many oil-linked financial markets and products which will provide new risk management tools. These trends will reward firms that can successfully manage risks associated with credit, liquidity, complexity, and financial evaluation.
International Petroleum Taxation in the 1990s
Authors: Kemp Alexander G.
Published: May 2011

Since the major oil price explosion and collapse over the last 20 years, host governments in producing countries have made substantial changes to their petroleum tax systems. In many cases, these changes have resulted in more profit-related systems being established. These have an inherent flexibility which is more appropriate for an environment of fluctuating prices. They are generally not accurately targeted on economic rents, however, and if oil prices remain low further discretionary changes may be required. In some important countries, reliance on old-style systems targeted on gross revenues still remains. These are not well adapted to an era of low oil prices, and investment disincentives are present.
LDC Cooperation in World Oil Conservation*
Authors: Stephen P.A. Brown , Huntington Hillard G.
Published: May 2011

Environmental concerns are leading many industrialized countries to consider measures which would reduce their consumption of oil, as well as other energy sources. The reluctance of the developing countries to join in these conservation efforts will reduce the policy's effectiveness. This paper explores the conditions under which the exclusion of important oil consumers (like developing countries) would weaken unilateral OECD actions to conserve oil.
Oil Imports and National Security: Is There Still a Connection?
Authors: Lichtblau John H.
Published: May 2011

This article examines the impact of oil imports on U.S. national security. It reviews oil's links with national security, and questions the arguments for curbing imports. Debated since the 1950s, the links are based on oil's unique role in fueling the economy, its role for the sparring superpowers during the Cold War, and the political instability of the Middle East. The article challenges the “military externality ” argument that U. S. imports require military protection. It compares U.S. import dependency with the much higher import dependency of most other industrial countries, none of which have expressed a national security concern similar to that of the U.S. It also points out that the source of imports is irrelevant, as the petroleum market functions globally with respect to volume and price: a shortage anywhere is a shortage everywhere. Finally, the article discusses the oft-used balance of payments argument for reducing oil imports, questioning the calculations on which it is based. It concludes that any argument for reducing oil imports for balance of payments reasons applies equally to other imported commodities.
The World Oil Market: Past and Future*
Authors: Adelman M.A.
Published: May 2011

Private owners of world oil resources eventually failed to restrain abundance and keep an above-competitive price. The OPEC nations had far greater market power, but overestimated it. Short time horizons drove OPEC nations to raise the price too much. They retreated to a more tenable level. But like all cartels, they find it hard to reconcile group welfare with short-run individual interest. Oil continues abundant, so far. The main obstacles to non-cartel expansion are man-made such as taxation and state companies. They are very slowly yielding. Depending on how fast they erode, world supply will grow, and price pressure will be downward.
Business Cycles and the Oil Market
Authors: Mork Knut Anton
Published: May 2011

The last twenty years have seen a number of oil-price changes with macroeconomic effects. Oilprice increases spur inflation and produce recessions. Oil price declines dampen inflation, but do not necessarily boost real activity. The correlations can be traced back to World War II. The paper gives a survey of oil market events with macroeconomic consequences. It also discusses hypotheses about the nature of the link and efforts to incorporate oil in macroeconomic models. Business cycle research has recently advanced sectoral imbalance and uncertainty as leading hypotheses to explain the apparent asymmetry in the macroeconomic effects of oil price changes.
Oil Demand in the Industrialized Countries*
Authors: Dargay Joyce , Gately Dermot
Published: May 2011

This paper surveys OECD energy and oil demand over the past three decades, analyzing the different paths of transportation oil, non-transportation oil, and non-oil energy—both over time, and relative to income growth. We review both the OECD as a whole, and make regional comparisons within the OECD. We focus especially on the price-irreversibility of oil demand: why oil demand has not surged now that oil prices have returned to pre-1974 levels.
Oil Demand in the Developing World: Lessons from the 1980s Applied to the 1990s*
Authors: Dahl Carol , Erdogan Meftun
Published: May 2011

Oil consumption in the developing world increased 37% over the decade of the 1980s. The 1990s promise to be more dynamic yet. In this paper we trace the evolution of these changes in the 1980s for Asia, Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East. Econometric work is used to determine how well growth in income, prices, and population explained growth in the 1980s, comparing forecasted with actual values for 1990. We find that the forecasts are quite good at the global level while consideration of additional facts such as urbanization, vehicle stocks, balance of payments, intetfuel substitution, and industrialization helps explain some of the regional variation. The econometric estimates along with a discussion of other variables are used toforecast consumption to the year 2000. The forecasts suggest that growth in oil product consumption during the 1990s is likely to be at least double that of the 1980s with Asia leading the way.
World Oil Resources, Reserves and Production
Authors: Odell Peter R.
Published: May 2011

Recent estimates of limited oil resources as constituting a constraint on the future of oil, lack validity. The issue is unimportant for the oil market for 50 years. Similarly, fears for the adequacy of annual additions to reserves are unfounded: the world is running into oil, not out of it.
Swiss Residential Demand for Electricity by Time-of-Use: An Application of the Almost Ideal Demand System*
Authors: Filippini Massimo
Published: May 2011

This study examines the residential demand for electricity by time-of-use in Switzerland. For this purpose, an almost ideal demand system (AIDS) model for peak and off-peak electricity consumption is estimated using panel data coveting the years 1987 to 1990 and 21 cities. The empirical analysis characterizes the Swiss residential electricity market as rather price responsive. The own partial price elasticities are estimated to range between -1.29 and -1.50 during the peak period and between -2.36 and -2.42 during the off-peak period. These elasticities show a high responsiveness of electricity consumption to changes in peak and off-peak prices. Moreover, the positive values of the partial cross price elasticities and substitution elasticities show that peak and offpeak electricity are substitutes.
Rebates, Loans, and Customers' Choice of Appliance Efficiency Level: Combining Stated-and Revealed-Preference Data
Authors: Train Kenneth E. , Atherton Terry
Published: May 2011

Residential customers' choice of efficiency level for appliances, and their participation in demand-side management (DSM) programs, are examined using data on customers' stated preferences in hypothetical (i.e., conjoint-type) situations and their revealed preferences in real-world choices. The analysis provides information on customers' willingness to pay for energy savings, the importance of rebates in customers' decisions, and customers' response to DSM programs that offer loans for purchases of high-efficiency appliances. An estimated model is used to forecast the decisions of customers under: higher rebates, replacement of rebates with finance programs, offering of loans and rebates as alternative options for customers, and the elimination of DSM programs. We find that attractive loans (e.g., low interest rates, long repayment periods) are necessary to have the same effect as rebates. Programs that offer customers the option of loans or rebates are found to be far more effective than programs that offer only loans or only rebates.
Effects of Liberalizing the Natural Gas Markets in Western Europe*
Authors: Golombek Rolf , Gjelsvik Eystein , Rosendahl Knut Einar
Published: May 2011

This paper uses a numerical model to examine the long-run impact of a radical liberalization of the West-European natural gas markets. We study profit maximizing Cournot producers facing an ideal third party access regime for gas transport. Producers sell gas either to large users in the manufacturing industry and to gas-fired thermal power plants, or to local distribution companies. We first examine the case where no traders exploit arbitrage possibilities and some producers have limited access to the markets. In this equilibrium net prices differ across markets. These differences disappear in the second case where traders are introduced. The third case focuses on a complete European market for natural gas in which traders exploit all arbitrage possibilities and all producers can sell gas in all markets. We also study the impact on the complete European market of changes in costs for production, transport, and distribution. Finally, welfare implications from a liberalization of the West-European natural gas markets are discussed. We argue that a radical liberalization could increase economic welfare in Western Europe by 15% to 20% in the long run.
Technological Advancement and the Recovery of Natural Gas: The Value of Information
Authors: Jante M. Chermak , Patrick Robert H.
Published: May 2011

Accurate information on geology, petroleum engineering, and economics is essential for firms to make efficient decisions concerning if and, if so, how to produce natural gas wells. Improved information may not only help insure that wells are economic, but may also lead to reduced costs of production and an increased physically recoverable stock of the resource. This paper empirically applies the economic theory of exhaustible resources (extended to include necessary reservoir engineering) to evaluate the benefits obtainable from using an enhanced information technology developed by the Gas Research Institute. The wells analyzed indicate significant benefits are obtainable with appropriate use of the new technology. The magnitudes of these benefits vary across reservoir characteristics.
On the Renewal of Concern for the Security of Oil Supply*
Authors: LaCasse Chantale , Plourde Andre
Published: May 2011

It seems curious that the security of oil supply would again emerge as a source of concern precisely when oil market conditions seem to be most favourable to oil-importing nations. We trace this development to the increased import volumes that have followed the 1986 collapse in the world oil price, and argue that concerns over the source of oil are of primary importance only in situations where physical availability is likely problematic. As the conception of security of supply is broadened, a distinction between random and strategic shocks is useful. Supply-side considerations, such as stockpiles, seem apt only to address the consequences of random shocks. As time horizons lengthen, supply-side measures lose their effectiveness, and demand-side considerations emerge as possible means of dampening the macroeconomic effects of future strategic shocks. Implementation remains an unresolved issue: the expected costs and benefits of specific interventions must still be compared.
Effects of Global Warming on Energy Use for Space Heating and Cooling in the United States
Authors: Rosenthal Donald H. , Gruenspecht Howard K. , Moran Emily A.
Published: May 2011

This study uses a three-step approach to estimate the impact of global warming on U.S. energy expenditures for space heating and cooling in residential and commercial buildings. First, average results from six different global circulation models are used to estimate the change in heating and cooling degree days in five U.S. climate zones associated with a 1° centigrade (C) global warming. Second, the change in degree days is mapped into a corresponding change in U.S. energy use for space conditioning, taking account of differences in population and baseline space conditioning intensity levels across regions, under the assumption that desired indoor temperature is unaffected by climate change. Finally, we estimate the associated change in energy expenditures. We find that a global warming of 1ଌ would reduce projected U.S. energy expenditures in 2010 by $5.5 billion (1991 dollars). This contrasts with earlier studies which have suggested modest global warming would increase U.S. expenditures on space conditioning energy.
Market Structure and the Price of Electricity: An Ex Ante Analysis of the Deregulated Swedish Electricity Market
Authors: Andersson Bo , Bergman Lars
Published: May 2011

Following new legislation the Swedish electricity market is about to be deregulated. The new system is designed to ensure competition in production and supply. The main motive for deregulation is to increase competition and thus achieve lower market prices. A possible threat to this outcome is the high degree of concentration on the seller side that characterizes the Swedish electricity market. In this paper we show that given the current structure of firms on the supply side, deregulation is not a sufficient condition for lower equilibrium prices in the electricity market. We use a numerical model to explore the quantitative relation between the Cournot-equilibriumprice, the number of firms, and the size distribution of firms in the Swedish electricity market. We compute equilibrium electricity prices and a welfare measure in order to quantify the effect of asymmetric market concentration on competition.
Marginal Capacity Costs of Electricity Distribution and Demand for Distributed Generation*
Authors: Chi-Keung Woo , Lloyd Debra-Zannetti , Orans Ren , Horii Brian , Heffher Grayson
Published: May 2011

Marginal costs of electricity vary by time and location. Past researchers attributed these variations to factors related to electricity generation, transmission and distribution. Past authors, however, did not fully analyze the large variations in marginal distribution capacity costs (MDCC) by area and time. Thus, the objectives of this paper are as follows: (1) to show that large MDCC variations exist within a utility's service territory; (2) to demonstrate inter-utility variations in MDCC; and (3) to demonstrate the usefulness of these costs in determining demand for distributed generation (DG).
Strategies for OPEC's Pricing and Output Decisions
Authors: Gately Dermot
Published: May 2011

This paper examines OPEC pricing and output strategies, both to provide an understanding of OPEC's unwise price doubling in 1979-80 and also to analyze what strategy might serve it best for the future. We focus on the unavoidable uncertainty regarding the underlying parameters that characterize the world oil market (price elasticities, income growth rates), and the sensitivity of discounted OPEC revenue to changes in these parameters, for various pricing strategies.
Power Markets and Market Power*
Authors: Newbery David M.
Published: May 2011

Privatization was intended to make the English bulk electricity market sufficiently competitive to avoid the need for regulation, but two generators set the spot price over 90% of the time though they supply less than 60% of total electricity generated. Their market power depends on their share ofnon-baseload plant, and agreed divestiture here should increase competition. The paper argues that the contract market, which makes entry contestable, will ensure that long-run average prices are kept at the competitive entry level, with increased competition mainly increasing medium-run volatility and short-run economic efficiency.
Forecasting the Market for Electric Vehicles in California Using Conjoint Analysis
Authors: Segal Robin
Published: May 2011

Beginning in 1998 a percentage of large auto companies' sales in California must include zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), which at this time are synonymous with electric vehicles. Data on consumer values and the level of consumer acceptance for alternative fuel vehicles are necessary to determine the practicality of the State's policy. This paper presents the results of aforecast for alternative fuel vehicle purchases in California. This forecast uses conjoint analysis, a multi-attribute utility market forecast methodology developed within the field of marketing research. The forecast yields several types of results, including market simulations of the alternative fuel vehicle market, relative preferences among vehicle attributes, and the identification of market segments most likely to purchase each type of vehicle. The research suggests a market for electric vehicles too small to support California's ZEVsales mandate, and a very large market for natural gas vehicles. This paper concludes with a discussion of automobile and electric utility industry interests with regard to these forecast market consequences.
Understanding the Oil Industry: Economics as a Help or a Hindrance
Authors: Stevens Paul
Published: May 2011

This paper examines how economics has contributed to an understanding of the international oil industry. After considering why knowledge of the oil industry is a subject worthy of interest, the paper develops a stylized version of economic methodology. It then tries to apply this to the oil industry. However, the paper observes that in the past, because of secrecy and lack of data, there have been serious problems which inhibit the use of standard methodology. The result has been a tendency among some economists to apply untried theory to the industry with damaging results. The paper then considers how other economists have adopted a different approach and in doing so, have made significant contributions. The paper concludes by considering future avenues for the further application of economic analysis to the oil industry.
The Greenhouse Debate: Economic Efficiency, Burden Sharing and Hedging Strategies
Authors: Manne Alan , Richels Richard
Published: May 2011

We address the issue of economic efficiency as it relates to climate change. We begin with a classical cost-benefit perspective. That is, we focus on emission trajectories which maximize net benefits. We then examine the consequences of adopting alternative decision making paradigms—for example, those based on limiting atmospheric concentrations so as to achieve an "ample margin of safety." We also consider the regional distribution of costs and benefits under alternative burden sharing schemes. Although the climate issue is often viewed from a global perspective, international negotiators will be acutely interested in how damages and mitigation costs might be distributed among individual regions. Finally, we address the issue of decision making under uncertainty. The challenge confronting today's policy makers is to identify a sensible hedging strategy—one that balances the risks of waiting against those of premature action.
Oil Shocks and the Macroeconomy: The Role of Price Variability*
Authors: Lee Kiseok , Ni Shawn , Ratti Ronald A.
Published: May 2011

In this paper we argue that an oil price change is likely to have greater impact on real GNP in an environment where oil prices have been stable, than in an environment where oil price movement has been frequent and erratic. An oil price shock variable reflecting both the unanticipated component and the time-varying conditional variance of oil price change (forecasts) is constructed and found to be highly significant in explaining economic growth across different sample periods, even when matched against various economic variables and other functions of oil price. We find that positive normalized shocks have a powerful effect on growth while negative normalized shocks do not.
Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction: A Case Study of Sri Lanka
Authors: Meier Peter , Munasinghe Mohan
Published: May 2011

In this paper we describe a case study for Sri Lanka that explores a wide range of options for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Options range from renewable technologies to carbon taxes and transportation sector initiatives. Wefind that setting electricity prices to reflect long-run marginal cost has a significant beneficial impact on the environment, and the expected benefits predicted on theoretical grounds are confirmed by the empirical results. Pricing reform also has a much broader impact than physical approaches to demand side management, although several options such as compact fluorescent lighting appear to have great potential. Options to reduce GHG emissions are limited as Sri Lanka lacks natural gas, and nuclear power is not practical until the system reaches a much larger size. Building the few remaining large hydro facilities would significantly reduce GHG emissions, but these would require costly resettlement programs. Given the inevitability for fossil-fuelbaseloadgeneration, both clean coal technologies such as pressurized fluidized bed combustion, as well as steam-cycle residual oilfueled plants merit consideration as alternatives to the conventional pulverized coal-fired plants currently being considered-Transportation sector measures necessary to ameliorate local urban air pollution problems, such as vehicle inspection and maintenance programs, also bring about significant reductions of GHG emissions.
Decomposition of SO2, NOx, and CO2, Emissions from Energy Use of Major Economic Sectors in Taiwan
Authors: Lin Sue J. , Change Tzu C.
Published: May 2011

In this paper we use the Divisia index approach to decompose emission changes of SO2, NOx and CO2 from major economic sectors in Taiwan during 1980 to 1992. The study highlights the interrelationships between energy use and environmental quality, and provides insights for policy making. The emission changes are decomposed into five components-pollution coefficient, fuel mix, energy intensity, economic growth and industrial structure. Of all components analyzed, economic growth had the largest positive effect on emission changes for Taiwan's major economic sectors. Emissions of SO2 in industry and other sectors showed a decreasing trend due to fuel quality improvements and pollution control. However, NOx and CO2 emissions increased sharply in all sectors. Comparisons were also made with Germany, Japan and USA. This study hay shown that improvement in energy efficiency, pollution control and fuel substitution are major options to reduce SO2, NOx and CO2 emissions.
Forecasting the Demand for Energy in China
Authors: Chan Hing Lin , Lee Shu Kam
Published: May 2011

In this paper we use a cointegration and vector error-correction model to analyze the energy consumption behavior of China. In formulating a model suitable to China, it is found that not only conventional variables such as energy price and income are important, but the share of heavy industry output in the, national income is also a significant factor. With the help of a vector errorcorrection model, we predict that China will need approximately 1.42 billion tons of standard coal equivalent by the end of this century, representing a 44 percent increase compared with 1990.
The Total Cost and Measured Performance of Utility-Sponsored Energy Efficiency Programs
Authors: Eto Joseph , Vine Edward , Shown Leslie , Sonnenblick Richard , Payne Chris
Published: May 2011

By examining the actual performance of conservation or demand-side management (DSM) programs for ten utilities, Joskow and Marron (1992) have made an important contribution to policy discussions about the wisdom of relying on utilities to improve customer energy efficiency. We use Joskow and Marrons method to analyze twenty utility commercial lighting programs and, like Joskow and Marron, find wide variations in industry reporting practices and savings evaluation methods. We extend the method by systematically accounting for several of the most important sources of variation and comment on how they influence total program costs. Our accounting also allows us to relate remaining program cost variations to the program sizes and the electric supply costs avoided by the programs. We draw qualified, yet affirmative, conclusions regarding the cost effectiveness of the programs.
The Welfare Effects of Raising Household Energy Prices in Poland
Authors: Freud Caroline L. , Wallich Christine I.
Published: May 2011

We examine the welfare effects from increasing household energy prices in Poland. Subsidizing household energy prices, common in the transition economies, is shown to be highly regressive. The wealthy spend a larger portion of their income on energy and consume more energy in absolute terms. We therefore rule out the oft-used social welfare argument for delaying household energy price increases. Raising prices, while targeting relief to the poor through a social assistance program is the first-best response. However, if governments want to ease the adjustment, several options are open, including: in-kind transfers to the poor, vouchers, in-cash transfers, and lifeline pricing for electricity. Our simulations show that if raising prices to efficient levels is not politically feasible at present and social assistance targeting is sufficiently weak, it may be socially better to use lifeline pricing and a large price increase than an overall, but smaller, price increase.
Incorporating Investment Uncertainty into Greenhouse Policy Models
Authors: Birge John R. , Rosa Charles H.
Published: May 2011

Greenhouse gas policy decisions require comprehensive understanding of atmospheric, economic, and social impacts. Many studies have considered the effects of atmospheric uncertainty in global warming, but economic uncertainties, have received Less analysis. We consider a key component of economic uncertainty: the return on investments in new technologies. Using a mathematical! programming model, we show that ignoring uncertainty in technology investment policy may lead to decreases as great as 2 percent in overall expected economic activity in the U.S. with even higher losses in possible future scenarios. These results indicate that both federal and private technology investment policies should be based on models explicitly incorporating uncertainty.
Price Convergence in North American Natural Gas Spot Markets
Authors: King Martin , Cuc Milan
Published: May 2011

In this paper we apply time-varying parameter (Kalman Filter) analysis to measure the degree of price convergence in North American natural gas spot markets. This statistical approach allows for an assessment of the strength of price convergence across various gas-producing basins. It is also a technique better suited than cointegration analysis because of the explicit presence of time varying parameters. Our results indicate that price convergence in natural gas spot markets has increased significantly since the price deregulation of the mid1980s. However, results to date indicate that there is still some way to go before one can speak of a single North American market for natural gas.
Ramsey Pricing of Electricity Under Unknown Bypass Costs
Authors: Horowitz Ira , Seeto Dewey , Woo Chi-Keung
Published: May 2011

This paper derives Ramsey prices for the realistic situation in which bypass costs are unknown to both a regulator and an electric utility, in particular, to any useful level of precision. It is shown that the traditional inverse elasticity rule will still yield Ramsey prices that are incentive compatible. The Ramsey prices require relatively little information to implement, and we show the relevant elasticities to use. Modifications of these Ramsey prices that account for political realities are also provided.
Gasoline Tax as a Corrective Tax: Estimates for the United States, 1970-1991
Authors: Haughton Jonathan , Sarkar Soumodip
Published: May 2011

Gasoline consumption creates externalities, through pollution, road congestion, accidents, and import dependence. Mat effect would a higher gasoline tax have on the related magnitudes: gasoline consumption, miles driven, and road fatalities? In this paper, separate models are estimated for gasoline use per mile, miles driven per driver, and fatalities per mile driven. We use data from 50 U.S. states and DC for 1970 through 1991, with a variety of stochastic specifications. The own-price elasticity of demand for gasoline is derived from projections with, and without, a higher gasoline tax, and is found to be between -0.12 and -0.17 in the short-run, and between -0.23 and -0.35 in the long-run. A tax of $1 per gallon would cut use by 15-20%, miles driven by 11-12%, and fatalities by 16 18% over 10 years, while raising almost $100 billion in revenue annually.
System Average Rates and Management Efficiency: A Statistical Benchmark Study of U.S. Investor-Owned Electric Utilities
Authors: Berndt Ernst R. , Epstein Roy , Deane Michael J.
Published: May 2011

Proposals to restructure electric utilities have heightened interest in understanding what factors contribute to the variation in system average rates (SARs) across utilities. Direct comparisons of utilities' average rates have been used to assess management performance and the possibility of using mandatory restructuring to reduce rates. However, direct rate comparisons can lead to highly unreliable conclusions because they ignore the wide variety of regional, economic, and regulatory factors that affect rates across utilities. This paper presents a statistical benchmark study of SARs using 1984-93 data on 99 U.S. investor-owned utilities. The model is applied to evaluate the electric rates of three California investor-owned utilities. We find electric rates are affected to a large extent by factors outside the direct and immediate control of management. Controlling for these effects, there is no evidence that these California utilities, which have relatively high system average rates, suffer from poor management performance.