bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Measuring Off Cropped Enlargements with a Digitizing Tablet
Authors: Warner W. S. , Carson W. W.
Published: March 2003

A standard digitizing tablet was used to measure objects off cropped enlargements (1:1000 scale), with an absolute accuracy of 0.75 m. Interior orientation for the enlargements was based upon camera reference marks captured from the original photographs, ranging from 1:6000 to 1:15 000 scale. Control for exterior orientation was provided by 1:1000 scale maps. Operational procedures are outlined, followed by results from eight sample photographs. Particular attention is devoted to errors that influence measurement accuracy.
Virtual Cities From Digital Imagery
Authors: Gülch E.
Published: March 2003

Increasing interest is being expressed in the use of virtual cities for many fields of application, ranging from planning and simulation to business, advertising and the games industry. Currently, the extraction of buildings from imagery is costly. However, recent developments in digital photogrammetry aim to produce more rapid and efficient methods of modelling three dimensional objects in urban environments. This paper presents a semi‐automatic system for the extraction of buildings from digital aerial imagery with the aid of volumetric primitives. The user is supported by automated tools, for example matching tools, in order to reach the necessary efficiency. With an extraction time of about 20 s per building primitive, this method is competitive in terms of the performance of classical photogrammetric procedures, and also offers additional features for analysis, texture mapping and Internet applications.
Is Leviathan Manageable?
Authors: Luton Larry , Caldwell Lynton K.
Published: March 2003

Books reviewed:

Peri E. Arnold, Making the Managerial Presidency: Comprehensive Reorganization Planning, 1905–1996.
The Future Is Uncentralized
Authors: Cleveland Harlan
Published: March 2003

In July 1995, ASPA's Endowment Board established the Donald C. Stone Fund to honor the memory of this public administration legend. Income from this fund is used to sponsor a lecture or symposium at ASPA's national conference which reflects Stone's varied interests and contributions to the field. This year marked the fifth Donald C. Stone Lecture. On April 4, Harlan Cleveland, former ASPA National President, was ASPA's Visions 2000 Stone Lecturer and gave the following speech.
Children in Poverty: Do State Policies Matter?
Authors: Morgan David R. , Kickham Kenneth
Published: March 2003

Objective. Variations in childhood poverty are primarily responsive to changes in family structure and economic conditions. Some research also suggests that federal and state programs may help alleviate poverty among children. This research incorporates measures of family characteristics, economic conditions, and policy variables in estimating changes in childhood poverty among the U.S. states. Methods. The research design is a pooled time series for all 50 states for the years 1987–1996. Results. Economic and family circumstances indeed are the major forces affecting children in poverty among the states. The unemployment rate for females, the percentage births to unmarried mothers, and the percentage of single‐parent families are especially useful estimators. Public policies are important as well: the state or federal minimum wage, Aid to Families with Dependent Children/food stamp payments, the Earned Income Tax Credit, and two measures of state child support effort. Conclusions. Although at times controversial, actions by the states and federal government can help reduce childhood poverty among U.S. states.
The Right to Development as a Human Right?
Authors: Buitenweg Rob
Published: March 2003

This article examines efforts to strengthen human rights, especially at the Bangkok Conference of 1993, and discusses the conflict between traditional Western views of human rights as individual rights, as opposed to the idea of collective rights. In this context, the author analyzes the debate over the right to development vigorously espoused at Bangkok and the concern of some Western governments that this might undermine the concept of individual human rights. He argues that an interpretation of the right to development as a collective right is compatible with the individualist tradition of human rights and urges further dialogue so as to recognize different views on what constitutes a dignified life.
Integral Peace & Power: A Foucauldian Perspective
Authors: Salla Michael Emin
Published: March 2003

This paper analyzes five “paradigms” used for conceptualizing and operationalizing peace in terms of a “practicality test” that represents a set of assumptions concerning the exercise of power. It is argued that theories belonging to three of the five paradigms do not pass the practicality test in a way that leads to them being effectively marginalized from the mainstream of academic study and institutional activity. Adopting a Foucauldian perspective based on his distinction between “negative” and “productive power,” and his idea that the pervasive and nebulous nature of “power networks” requires an incremental and non‐systematic approach to long‐term social and political change, this paper argues that key assumptions underscoring the “practicality test” need to be revised. This is to effectively make the “practicality test” redundant thereby allowing the hitherto marginalized paradigm of “integral peace,” and to a lesser extent environmental and feminist paradigms, to be reconsidered as a “practical” strategy for establishing global peace.
Helene Stöcker's Pacifism: International Intersections
Authors: Braker Regina
Published: March 2003

Helene Stöcker (1869–1943), a radical pacifist in Germany, sought cooperation between widely divergent groups, created allies through the force of her conviction, and refused to compromise on her absolute pacifism. Cited for her work in sex reform, Stöcker played a leading role in the German peace movement and in the War Resisters' International. Her feminist position is interesting for rejecting claims about the redemptive role of newly enfranchised women in politics while retaining maternalist values.
Racism, Interethnic War, and Peace in Chiapas
Authors: Gall Olivia
Published: March 2003

This article discusses the trends affecting war and peace in the political‐military conflict within the Mexican province of Chiapas from 1994 to 1998. The analysis draws on the long history of interethnic relations in the region, characterized by a persistent pattern of overexploitation and racism, as well as the current political agendas of both the insurgent Ejército Zapatista de Liberación Nacional (EZLN) and the federal government of Mexico.
Whistleblowing and Nonviolence
Authors: Martin Brian
Published: March 2003

Whistleblowing and nonviolent action have a number of similarities and connections, yet seldom have they been discussed together. There are a number of lessons for whistleblowing from nonviolence, and vice versa. These are raised through a series of points about whistleblowing: that isolated resistance is ruthlessly crushed, that preparation is essential, that formal channels seldom work, that the strategy of mobilization can be powerful, and that whistleblowers seldom bring about change.
The Anxiety of Ambiguity: Nation and Identity in Ōe's Man'en gannen no futtobōru
Authors: Lai Ming‐yan
Published: March 2003

Ōe's Man'en gannen no futtobōru is a powerful national allegory which affords serious meditation on the difficulties and perils of translating and transcribing the desires for collectivity and national identity in modernity. This essay analyzes the novel's attempt to weave the marginalized indigenous and the hegemonic Western into a ‘unique’ Japanese national identity. The narrative resolution of the identity crisisreveals a reinscription of exclusionary racial conceptualizations and elision of Japan's history of capitalist exploitation both within and outside of its national boundaries.
Practicing Peace: The Impact of a School‐Based Conflict Resolution Program on Elementary Students
Authors: Lane‐Garon Pamela S.
Published: March 2003

This study was conducted during the second year of a school‐based conflict resolution program. Social‐cognitive perspective taking, strategy choice, personal history with violence, and school climate were measured before and after peer mediator training and practice. A significant increase in cognitive perspective taking was revealed, indicating that both trained and untrained students became more likely to consider the perspective of others. An empathy effect, however, was not detected. Students' preference for independent conflict strategy choices increased. Patterns associated with ethnicity were also revealed, with African American students showing the greatest increase in cognitive perspective taking, and Hispanic students the greatest increase in preference for independent conflict resolution strategies. Finally, all students, regardless of their personal history with violence, appeared to benefit from this program, as compared with controls where no change was observed.
Peace among Friends: A Feminist Interpretation of the “Democratic Peace”
Authors: Emmons Allison Juliann
Published: March 2003

That democracies, though just as belligerent as non‐democracies, are unlikely to fight one another is practically law in the study of international relations. Yet prevailing liberal explanations for this democratic peace, which focus primarily on democratic political institutions and culture, remain incomplete. Most importantly, these explanations emphasize a rights‐based ethic, which has significantly limited our comprehension of the link between domestic politics and international relations to empirical generalizations. International relationships, however, are intrinsically interdependent and therefore thoroughly knowable only in the context in which they occur and are experienced. In this article I interpret the “democratic peace” as a single thread, albeit a highly visible and important one, in the dense fabric of international relations. More specifically, I enlarge the context in which domestic politics is connected to international relations to include the politics of care—itself a practice that is usually understood to be private, i.e., particular, often emotional, and contextually moral. The result is a more refined understanding of the conditions for peace among all nations—democratic or not.
Explaining Why the Good Friday Accord Is Likely to Bring a Lasting Peace in Northern Ireland
Authors: Beggan Dominic , Indurthy Rathnam
Published: March 2003

The thirty‐year conflict between Catholics and Protestants in Northern Ireland that cost more than 3,600 lives finally gave way to a new era of peace following the establishment of a power‐sharing government on December 3, 1999. This article first discusses the conflict and the peace process leading to the formation of a power‐sharing Executive Council, and its precipitous abeyance and reinstatement; secondly presents institutional, ideological, political (both internal and external), social, and economic explanations as to why peace is likely to become a reality in the province; and finally suggests some imperatives needed to speed up the process. An interview with Gerry Adams is appended.
The Cooing of a Dove: Senator Albert Gore Sr.'s Opposition to the War in Vietnam
Authors: Hodges Robert C.
Published: March 2003

As a senator from Tennessee, Albert Gore Sr. became one of the leading congressional critics of American involvement in Vietnam during the 1960s and early 1970s. Weary of many aspects of American containment policy, Gore voiced concern over military assistance to dictators, secrecy in foreign aid programs, and the viability of sending American troops to fight in the jungles of Vietnam. He privately opposed sending U.S. soldiers to relieve the French garrison at Dienbienphu in 1954, and his anxiety mounted during the widening U.S. role in Vietnam during the Kennedy years, although Gore did not express any public reservations. After supporting the Tonkin Gulf Resolution, Gore quickly broke with the Johnson administration and began advocating as early as December 1964 a negotiated settlement of the war. In October 1967, he called for the “neutralization” of Southeast Asia. Gore's often‐ignored role as a high‐level congressional critic of the Vietnam War deserves further exploration in examining the reasons for and impact of congressional opposition to the conflict.
The Peace Movement at the Local Level: The Syracuse Peace Council, 1936–1973
Authors: Smith Allen
Published: March 2003

This article investigates a neglected dimension in the history of the U.S. peace movement—the local level. By examining the Syracuse Peace Council between 1936 and 1973, the author not only advances our knowledge of the community‐level peace movement, but aids in providing a fuller understanding of the national movement during this time.
The Roots of Child Study: Philosophy, History, and Religion
Authors: Kennedy David
Published: March 2003

This paper offers an approach to child study that moves beyond the traditional modern domains of medicine, education, and the social sciences, to explore the representation and symbolization of the child in philosophy, social and cultural history, myth and spirituality, art, literature, and psychoanalysis. It considers childhood as a cultural and historical construction, and traces the ways in which characterizations of children function symbolically as carriers of deep assumptions about human nature and its potential variability and changeability, about the construction of human subjectivity, about the ultimate meaning of the human life cycle, and about human forms of knowledge. The child as limit condition—as representing for adults the boundaries of the human—that is, “nature,” animality, madness, the “primitive,” the divine—is re-evoked continually in modern and postmodern symbolizations, and the tension between reason and nature or instinct, or Enlightenment and Romance, is never far from their surface. Finally, the extent to which the construction of “child” also implies a construction of “adult” is explored in the context of the history of culture and of child rearing, particularly in the rise of the modern middle-class European adult personality, which defined itself on the basis of its distance from childhood—both the child before it, and the child within. An ideal of adult maturity that includes rather than excludes childhood is capable of transforming our notions of optimal child rearing and education.
What does it Take to Break the Mold? Rhetoric and Reality in New American Schools
Authors: Hatch Thomas
Published: March 2003

In 1991, the New American Schools Development Corporation (NASDC) was created in order to create “break-the-mold” models for a “new generation of American schools.” NASDC sought to achieve this goal by funding eleven different design teams including the ATLAS Communities Project—a collaboration of the Coalition of Essential Schools, the School Development Program, Harvard Project Zero, and the Education Development Center. While schools associated with ATLAS and the other design teams showed some signs of progress in the first few years of their work, there has been little evidence that these positive outcomes have been achieved by “breaking the mold.” In fact, the NASDC strategy and the ATLAS collaboration may have exacerbated basic conditions that make it difficult for schools and organizations to explore new ideas and develop innovative practices. By drawing on studies of innovation in business organizations, this paper argues that rather than trying to create “break-the-mold” school designs, reformers should aim to create the conditions that allow for a better balance between efforts to explore new ideas that may be successful in the future and the further expansion of practices that have been successful in the past.
Creating a “Connected” Community? Teachers’ Use of an Electronic Discussion Group
Authors: Selwyn Neil
Published: March 2003

As information and communications technology (ICT) becomes more commonplace in educational settings the use of computer mediated communication (CMC) between teachers is increasingly being seen as a valid form of professional dialogue and support. Indeed, the promotion of online discussion groups as “virtual meeting places” for teachers has formed a central part of the UK government's £1 billion drive to make ICT use part of day-to-day practice in British schools. However, amidst the enthusiasm for creating “virtual communities” of teachers, little is known about how educational professionals are using such resources in practice. To this end the present paper reports on a study of UK teachers’ use of an established online discussion group over a two-year period. It shows that, although the online forum was widely being used both as an information and empathetic exchange resource, many of the claims of establishing collectively focused virtual communities of teachers remain exaggerated as the forum was limited by a number of caveats associated with CMC groups in general.
Sliding the Doors: Locking and Unlocking Possibilities for Teacher Leadership
Authors: Silva Diane Yendol , Gimbert Belinda , Nolan James
Published: March 2003

This case study describes the experience of three teacher leaders who attempt to lead from within their classroom. Interview and biographical data were collected and analyzed both within case and across cases. The cases individually describe the experiences of teacher leaders and the cases collectively help us define the components of teacher leadership along with the barriers and facilitators that teacher leaders face. The results of these analyses identify the following assertions: teacher leaders navigate the structures of schools, teacher leaders nurture relationships, teacher leaders model professional growth, teacher leaders help others with change, and teacher leaders challenge the status quo by raising children's voices. These assertions suggest the need for rethinking organizational structures that inhibit as well as facilitate teacher leadership from within the classroom.
Developing a Commitment to Multicultural Education
Authors: Paccione Angela V.
Published: March 2003

The purpose of this study was to understand the factors and process involved in developing a commitment to multicultural education. The two questions that guided the study were (a) What kinds of life experiences contribute to a commitment to multicultural education ? and (b) What is the process by which individuals become committed to multicultural education ? The research methodology of content analysis was used to answer the first question and phenomenology was used to answer the second.

The theoretical population for this study included all teachers in the United States who are committed to multicultural education/diversity. The tangible population included members of the National Association for Multicultural Education (NAME). The criterion sample for the study was those members of NAME who (a) were affiliated with prekindergarten through higher education in 1997, and (b) attended the 1997 NAME Annual Conference (n = 330).

A questionnaire consisting of one open-ended and various standard demographic questions was mailed to the sample. Content analysis of the returned questionnaires revealed 11 factors that contributed to developing a commitment to multicultural education. Telephone interviews were also conducted with 45 volunteer respondents from the sample. Phenomenological analysis of the interviews strongly suggested thai a four-stage process can be used to describe the development of a commitment to multicultural education.

The results of the study have implications for multicultural education and teacher education. Foremost in the conclusions of this study are the support for (a) cultural immersion experiences and (b) course work in multicultural education that evokes a critical analysis of the sociopolitical status quo in U. S. society.
An Uncertain Lever: Exploring the Influence of State-Level Testing in New York State on Teaching Social Studies
Authors: Grant S. G.
Published: March 2003

In this paper, the author presents case studies of two high school social studies teachers and the influence of state-level testing on their teaching practices. Based on classroom observations of a unit on the U.S. civil rights movement and teacher interviews before and after that unit, he examines the role the eleventh grade New York State Regents test in U.S. History and Government plays in each teacher's instructional planning, delivery, and assessment. His analysis suggests that while the state test figures into each teacher's instruction, it does so by interacting with a range of other factors, especially the teachers’ views of subject matter and learners. From these findings, he argues that state tests may be an uncertain lever and that, while reformers continue pinning their hopes on new tests, faith in tests as a means of instructional change may be hard to sustain.
Influences of Adaptation to Communist Rule on Value Priorities in Eastern Europe
Authors: Schwartz Shalom H. , Bardi Anat
Published: March 2003

The basic value priorities prevalent in Eastern Europe are studied in a cross‐national comparison. Analyses of the implications of adaptation to life circumstances under communist regimes lead to the hypotheses that East European samples are likely to attribute especially high importance to conservatism and hierarchy values and low importance to egalitarianism, intellectual and affective autonomy, and mastery values. The same hypotheses apply to differences between countries within Eastern Europe in which there was greater or lesser communist penetration. These hypotheses are largely supported with data both from samples of school teachers and of university students from nine Eastern European and 12 Western European countries. Various possible alternative explanations are discussed: national economic level, religion, earlier shared history, effects of totalitarianism, and distinctiveness of Western Europe.
Two‐Timing: Politics and Response Latencies in a Bilingual Survey
Authors: Fletcher Joseph F.
Published: March 2003

Through the recording of response times in a national four‐wave bilingual panel survey, this study reports improvements in the prediction of vote choice up to 1 year in advance of a federal election. These results were achieved with conventional computer‐assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) software, indicating that the immediate use of response time measures isboth practical and attractive for commercial as well as academic survey units. Even so, response latencies were found to be sensitive to political circumstance, such that timings should be analyzed separately for minority and majority populations. Moreover, a broad analytic focus, beyond timing only vote intention and partisan commitment, is recommended because latency data on core questions of identity and allegiance reveal a great deal about the contours ofpolitical context.
I'll Take the High Road: Two Pathways to Altruistic Political Mobilization Against Regime Repression in Argentina
Authors: Thalhammer Kristina E.
Published: March 2003

What led Argentine human rights activists to risk challenging state repression in the late 1970s? Chi‐square analyses of 78 interviews with early activists and nonactivists suggested few commonalities among activists but revealed two distinct and inverse routes to high‐risk other‐centered political activism. Activists directly affected by regime violence tended to be relatively inexperienced politically, to have little experience with fear, and to see groups as comprising individuals rather than as monolithic wholes. An inverse pattern characterized activists not directly affected by regime violence: Their activism was preceded by experience in politics and survival of previous fear‐evoking episodes.
Motivations, Goals, Information Search, and Memory about Political Candidates
Authors: Huang Li‐Ning , Price Vincent
Published: March 2003

This study investigated the ways in which motivations and goals affect patterns of political information‐seeking and the consequent structure of memory about candidates. Undergraduate participants used a computerized system that displayed different layers of information about fictional political candidates; the system recorded the strategies they used to search through this information. Results showed that motivations to engage in effortful processing produced tendencies to engage in within‐candidate searches, better recall, and memory structures clustered by candidate. The goal of forming impressions of the candidates, which was expected to lead to within‐candidate searching, was in fact modestly associated with weaker tendencies to do so, once effort was taken into account. Impression‐formation goals, however, were associated with less attribute‐based memory structures. The findings confirm that the manner in which people acquire candidate information has important consequences for the way they store that information in memory, and that these processes vary according to individual motivations and goals.
Framing Foreign Policy Alternatives in the Inner Circle: President Carter, His Advisors, and the Struggle for the Arms Control Agenda
Authors: Garrison Jean A.
Published: March 2003

This article examines strategic framing efforts within the president’s inner circle of foreign policy advisors. The comparative case study method is used to describe and explain the framing process involved in President Jimmy Carter’s arms control decisions with respect to the Soviet Union. Carter’s two central foreign policy advisors, National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski and Secretary of State Cyrus Vance, portrayed the Soviets in very different terms. The premise underlying this study is that advisors attempt to frame their policy preferences favorably in order to influence the group process and the president’s policy choice. Advisors do so by playing up the positive aspects of an option and downplaying any negative aspects. Three components of the framing process are explored: historical/cultural symbolism, personal beliefs and values, and political cost assessments.
Framing, Uncertainty, and Hostile Communications in a Crisis Experiment
Authors: McDermott Rose , Cowden Jonathan , Koopman Cheryl
Published: March 2003

During times of crisis, do cognitive processes shape leaders’ procurement decisions in predictable ways? Drawing on psychological literature, we propose four factors that may have a substantial influence on how much money leaders engaged in ongoing disputes allocate to their military: (1) striving for superiority versus striving for parity in military resources; (2) uncertainty regarding the characteristics of weapons systems; (3) ambiguity regarding the overall capacities of weapons systems; and (4) the tone of messages that adversaries send to one another. The effects of these factors are investigated using a laboratory simulation that combines both experimental and quasi‐experimental elements. The results indicate that striving for superiority has a significant effect on defense spending, as does the tone of an opponent’s message. By way of contrast, neither uncertainty nor ambiguity exerts a statistically discernable impact on the level of defense spending.
Terrorists and Democrats: Individual Reactions to International Attacks
Authors: Healy Alice F. , Hoffman Joshua M. , Beer Francis A. , Bourne, Jr. Lyle E.
Published: March 2003

Three experiments conducted in 1997 and 1998 explored individual responses to reported fictitious international conflict involving the United States and other nations. Participants escalated the conflictual level of their responses to repeated attacks. In Experiment 1, escalation of conflict was greater in response to terrorist attacks than to military ones. In Experiment 2, after the initial attacks, men were more conflictual in responding to terrorist attacks by a democratic nation than by a nondemocratic nation, whereas the opposite pattern was found for women. In Experiment 3, participants responded with a higher level of conflict to terrorist attacks on military targets than to attacks on cultural/educational targets. Participants with greater personality dominance showed steeper escalation of conflict in their responses across successive attacks. These results are interpreted within the framework of an image theory of international relations and an expansion of the democratic peace hypothesis.
The Consequences of Terrorism: Disentangling the Effects of Personal and National Threat
Authors: Huddy Leonie , Feldman Stanley , Capelos Theresa , Provost Colin
Published: March 2003

The events of 11 September 2001 have led to a higher perceived risk of terrorism in the United States. A better understanding of the political consequences of 9/11 requires a more complete accounting of the nature and consequences of perceived threat. Here, the distinction between perceived personal and national risks is examined in terms of two competing hypotheses: (1) The personal threat of terrorism has a pervasive influence even on national decisions and perceptions, in line with its highly arousing nature. (2) The effects of personal threat are highly circumscribed and overshadowed by the impact of perceived national threat, consistent with findings on the meager impact of self–interest and other personal concerns on public opinion. A survey of 1,221 residents of Long Island and Queens, New York, explored the degree to which personal and national threat affect perceptions of the consequences of, and possible solutions to, terrorism. As expected, there was a clear distinction between perceived personal and national threat, although the two are related. Perceived personal threat did not influence the perceived economic consequences of terrorism, although it had a narrow effect on personal behaviors designed to minimize risk. Overall, the findings imply that the effects of personal threat are circumscribed, consistent with past research on the limited personal basis of political judgments. However, the tests of these hypotheses were constrained by a limited set of dependent variables that included national consequences but not policy solutions designed to limit terrorism.
Risk Filtering, Ranking, and Management Framework Using Hierarchical Holographic Modeling
Authors: Haimes Yacov Y. , Kaplan Stan , Lambert James H.
Published: March 2003

This paper contributes a methodological framework to identify, prioritize, assess, and manage risk scenarios of a large‐scale system. Qualitative screening of scenarios and classes of scenarios is appropriate initially, while quantitative assessments may be applied once the set of all scenarios (hundreds) has been prioritized in several phases. The eight‐phase methodology is described in detail and is applied to operations other than war. The eight phases are as follows: Phase I, Scenario Identification—A hierarchical holographic model (HHM) is developed to describe the system's ``as planned'' or ``success'' scenario. Phase II, Scenario Filtering—The risk scenarios identified in Phase I are filtered according to the responsibilities and interests of the current system user. Phase III, Bi‐Criteria Filtering and Ranking. Phase IV, Multi‐Criteria Evaluation. Phase V, Quantitative Ranking—We continue to filter and rank scenarios based on quantitative and qualitative matrix scales of likelihood and consequence; and ordinal response to system resiliency, robustness, redundancy. Phase VI, RiskManagement is performed, involving identification of management options for dealing with the filtered scenarios, and estimating the cost, performance benefits, and risk reduction of each. Phase VII, Safeguarding Against Missing Critical Items—We examine the performance of the options selected in Phase VI against the scenarios previously filtered out during Phases II to V. Phase VIII, OperationalFeedback—We use the experience and information gained during application to refine the scenario filtering and decision processes in earlier phases. These eight phases reflect a philosophical approach rather than a mechanical methodology. In this philosophy, the filtering and ranking of discrete scenarios is viewed as a precursor to, rather than a substitute for, consideration of the totality of all risk scenarios.
A Random Walk Model of Skin Permeation
Authors: Frederick Frasch H.
Published: March 2003

A new mathematical model for permeability of chemicals in aqueous vehicle through skin is presented. The rationale for this model is to represent diffusion by its fundamental molecular mechanism, i.e., random thermal motion. Diffusion is modeled as a two‐dimensional random walk through the biphasic (lipid and corneocyte) stratum corneum (SC). This approach permits calculations of diffusion phenomena in a morphologically realistic SC structure. Two concepts are key in the application of the model to the prediction of steady‐state skin permeability coefficients: ``effective diffusivity'' and ``effective path length,'' meaning the diffusivity and thickness of a homogeneous membrane having identical permeation properties as the stratum corneum. Algebraic expressions for these two variables are developed as functions of the molecular weight and octanol‐water partition coefficient of the diffusing substance. Combining these with expressions for membrane‐vehicle partition coefficient and permeability of the aqueous epidermis enables the calculation of steady‐state skin permeability coefficients. The resulting four‐parameter algebraic model was regressed against the ``Flynn data base'' with excellent results (R2=0.84;SE=0.0076; F=154;N=94). The model provides insight into the contributions of stratum corneum diffusivity and effective path lengths to overall skin permeability and may prove useful in the prediction of non‐steady‐state diffusion phenomena.
Measurement Error, Skewness, and Risk Analysis: Coping with the Long Tail of the Distribution
Authors: Mumpower Jeryl L. , McClelland Gary
Published: March 2003

Probabilistic risk analyses often construct multistage chance trees to estimate the joint probability of compound events. If random measurement error is associated with some or all of the estimates, we show that resulting estimates of joint probability may be highly skewed. Joint probability estimates based on the analysis of multistage chance trees are more likely than not to be below the true probability of adverse events, but will sometimes substantially overestimate them. In contexts such as insurance markets for environmental risks, skewed distributions of risk estimates amplify the ``winner's curse'' so that the estimated risk premium for low‐probability events is likely to be lower than the normative value. Skewness may result even in unbiased estimators of expected value from simple lotteries, if measurement error is associated with both the probability and pay‐off terms. Further, skewness may occur even if the error associated with these two estimates is symmetrically distributed. Under certain circumstances, skewed estimates of expected value may result in risk‐neutral decisionmakers exhibiting a tendency to choose a certainty equivalent over a lottery of equal expected value, or vice versa. We show that when distributions of estimates of expected value are positively skewed, under certain circumstances it will be optimal to choose lotteries with nominal values lower than the value of apparently superior certainty equivalents. Extending the previous work of Goodman (1960), we provide an exact formula for the skewness of products.
Physical Injury Risks Associated with Drinking Water Arsenic Treatment
Authors: Frost Floyd J. , Chwirka Joseph , Craun Gunther F. , Thomson Bruce , Stomp John
Published: March 2003

We estimated the number of transportation deaths that would be associated with water treatment in Albuquerque to meet the EPA's recently proposed revisions of the Maximum Contaminant Level (MCL) for arsenic. Vehicle mileage was estimated for ion exchange, activated alumina, and iron coagulation/microfiltration water treatment processes to meet an MCL of 0.020 mg/L, 0.010 mg/L, 0.005 mg/L, and 0.003 mg/L. Local crash, injury, and death rates per million vehicle miles were used to estimate the number of injuries and deaths. Depending on the water treatment options chosen, we estimate that meeting an arsenic MCL of 0.005 mg/L will result in 143 to 237 crashes, 58 to 98 injuries, and 0.6 to 2.6 deaths in Albuquerque over a 70‐year period, resulting in 26 to 113 years of life lost. The anticipated health benefits for Albuquerque residents from a 0.005 mg/L arsenic MCL, estimated using either a multistage Weibull or Poisson model, ranged from 3 to 80 arsenic‐related bladder and lung cancer deaths prevented over a 70‐year period, adding between 43 and 1,123 years of life. Whether a revised arsenic MCL increases or reduces overall loss of life in Albuquerque depends on the accuracy of EPA's cancer risk assessment. If the multistage Weibull model accurately estimates the benefits, the years of life added is comparable or lower than the anticipated years lost due to transportation associated with the delivery of chemicals, disposal of treatment waste, and operation of the water treatment system. Coagulation/microfiltration treatment will result in substantially fewer transportation deaths than either ion exchange or activated alumina.
Neighbors in Time: Development and Use of Some Values for Intergenerational Justice from the Jewish and Christian Religious Traditions
Authors: Becker Wayne W.
Published: March 2003

The overlapping understandings of Jewish and Christian traditions (the Traditions), both influencing and reincorporating Western culture from the Greeks to the present, underpin many of the ethical constructs of present society, in ways both obvious and subtle. The concept of justice is central to the ethical outlooks of both religious traditions. This article systematically develops values related to justice from within the Traditions and extends them to the question of intergenerational equity as proposed precepts for assessment and action. Many of the results seem familiar because they are deeply embedded in our culture. They are assertions that transcend time — the value of human life; an obligation to support the necessary interests of others, especially the powerless; the concepts of brotherhood, the common good, and stewardship of resources; and the transmission of knowledge, resources, and values through the vehicles of families and communities. Other ideas from within the Traditions, such as giving beyond the requirements of equity and the connection of human life with God whose abilities are unbounded by time, continue to draw people beyond the limits of culture. These outlooks are organized into 17 statements or proposals constitutive of this view of justice. These summary statements are used as the basis for comparing a system of principles proposed by a panel of the National Academy of Public Administration for intergenerational decision making with the views represented by the Traditions. This broaches a broader question of fairness in resource distribution. The article concludes with reference to some developed resources of the Traditions from which further insight can be drawn, and another illustration related to resource allocation. It is hoped that the article helps stimulate wider analysis of the values on which our decisions are made.
Risks of Hazardous Waste Sites versus Asteroid and Comet Impacts: Accounting for the Discrepancies in U.S. Resource Allocation
Authors: Gerrard Michael B.
Published: March 2003

Approximately $6 billion is spent annually in the United States on the cleanup of sites regulated under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA, or Superfund). The current health risks posed by such sites are thought to be quite small; the expenditures are justified primarily as protecting hypothetical future residents of these sites. Approximately 0.05% of this amount, or $3 million, is spent annually by the U.S. government on the detection of asteroids or comets that could strike the earth. Such damaging impacts do occur from time to time — most recently in 1908 in an unpopulated region of Siberia — but no person is confirmed ever to have died as a result. Anticipated impacts over the course of 1 million years would yield deaths that, when annualized, total approximately 4,000 per year. The risk reduction goal for CERCLA is 15 orders of magnitude greater than that for asteroid/comet detection. A modest increase in resources devoted to asteroid detection would greatly increase the chances of early detection of a threatening object, allowing an effective defense to be attempted. This article argues that the much lower risk‐to‐resources ratio for CERCLA cleanups than for asteroid and comet detection can be explained by four primary factors: (1) the regard for future generations, since CERCLA benefits mainly the unborn; (2) concrete fears, since toxics are much more feared than asteroids or comets; (3) the source of the threat, since toxic contamination is caused by human beings, unlike impacts from space objects; and (4) the greater political constituencies for hazardous waste cleanup than for space object detection.
Ecological Risks and Community Perceptions of Fairness and Justice: A Cross‐Cultural Model
Authors: Syme Geoffrey J. , Kals Elisabeth , Nancarrow Blair E. , Montada Leo
Published: March 2003

Intergenerational justice is implicit in international commitments to sustainability. If ecological, economic, and social components of sustainability are to be achieved, there is a necessity for intergenerational justice considerations to be included in decision making. The present generation's risk judgments should include consideration of the possible outcomes for their children. But intergenerational issues cannot be considered in isolation from other current risk and fairness concerns. This article reports on a community‐based integrative model that describes justice and other attitudes and motivations that determine community and individual proenvironmental behavior in two nations: Germany and Australia. This model can account for a considerable amount of the variance in political compliance as well as various proenvironmental behaviors. Group or individual self‐interests have nearly no effects on global protective behavior. It is shown that universal as well as contextual principles, including distributive (within or between generations), procedural, and interactive justice, play a crucial role in fairness judgments. Other principles are also taken into account, such as efficiency, environmental rights, and rights to economic welfare. The results are discussed in relation to the importance of complex community fairness judgments in predicting and evaluating acceptance of political decisions, and for promoting proenvironmental behavior.
Information Technology Risks as Seen by the Public
Authors: Sjöberg Lennart , Fromm Jana
Published: March 2003

Risks related to information technology (IT) are becoming a focus of concern in current risk debates. The use of IT is rapidly spreading in the population, as is access to computers in general. The present article reviews the literature on IT use (especially electronic mail and various Internet applications) and the related risks. In addition, the results from a survey about IT use and risk perception, given to a random sample of the Swedish population, are reported. In general, participants were quite positive to IT and were, to some extent, aware of the related risks. However, risks of IT were mostly seen as pertinent to other people, a finding in contrast with other results on perceived technology hazards. The attitude toward the use of IT was strongly related to general attitude toward computers, and less clearly to risk perception. Only a small percentage of the respondents reported having had negative experiences with IT hazards such as Internet addiction, depression, and social isolation. When extrapolated to the general population, however, these small percentages amount to large groups in the population that have been negatively affected by IT use.
A Framework to Guide Thinking and Analysis Regarding Climate Change Policies
Authors: Keeney Ralph L. , McDaniels Timothy L.
Published: March 2003

The potential impacts from climate change, and climate change policies, are massive. Careful thinking about what we want climate change policies to achieve is a crucial first step for analysts to help governments make wise policy choices to address these concerns. This article presents an adaptive framework to help guide comparative analysis of climate change policies. The framework recognizes theinability to forecast long‐term impacts (due in part topath dependance) as a constraint on the use of standard policy analysis, and stresseslearning over time as a fundamental concern. The framework focuses on the objectives relevant for climate change policy in North America over the near term (e.g., the next 20 years). For planning and evaluating current climate policy alternatives, a combination of fundamental objectives for the near term and proxy objectives for characterizing the state of the climate problem and the ability to address it at the end of that term is suggested. Broad uses of the framework are discussed, along with some concrete examples. The framework is intended to provide a basis for policy analysis that explicitly considers the benefits of learning over time to improve climate change policies.
The Risk of Groundling Fatalities from Unintentional Airplane Crashes
Authors: Thompson Kimberly M. , Rabouw R. Frank , Cooke Roger M.
Published: March 2003

The crashes of four hijacked commercial planes on September 11, 2001, and the repeated televised images of the consequent collapse of the World Trade Center and one side of the Pentagon will inevitably change people’s perceptions of the mortality risks to people on the ground from crashing airplanes. Goldstein and colleagues were the first to quantify the risk for Americans of being killed on the ground from a crashing airplane for unintentional events, providing average point estimates of 6 in a hundred million for annual risk and 4.2 in a million for lifetime risk. They noted that the lifetime risk result exceeded the commonly used risk management threshold of 1 in a million, and suggested that the risk to “groundlings” could be a useful risk communication tool because (a) it is a man‐made risk (b) arising from economic activities (c) from which the victims derive no benefit and (d) exposure to which the victims cannot control. Their results have been used in risk communication. This analysis provides updated estimates of groundling fatality risks from unintentional crashes using more recent data and a geographical information system approach to modeling the population around airports. The results suggest that the average annual risk is now 1.2 in a hundred million and the lifetime risk is now 9 in ten million (below the risk management threshold). Analysis of the variability and uncertainty of this estimate, however, suggests that the exposure to groundling fatality risk varies by about a factor of approximately 100 in the spatial dimension of distance to an airport, with the risk declining rapidly outside the first 2 miles around an airport. We believe that the risk to groundlings from crashing airplanes is more useful in the context of risk communication when information about variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates is characterized, but we suspect that recent events will alter its utility in risk communication.