bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Novel Nested Peptide Epitopes Recognized by CD4+ T Cells Induced by HIV-1 Conserved-Region Vaccines
Authors: Borthwick Nicola , Silva-Arrieta Sandra , Llano Anuska , Takiguchi Masafumi , Brander Christian , Hanke Tomáš
Published: January 2020

CD4+ T-cell responses play an important role in the immune control of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection and as such should be efficiently induced by vaccination. It follows that definition of HIV-1-derived peptides recognized by CD4+ T cells in association with HLA class II molecules will guide vaccine development. Here, we have characterized the fine specificity of CD4+ T cells elicited in human recipients of a candidate vaccine delivering conserved regions of HIV-1 proteins designated HIVconsv. The majority of these 19 most immunogenic regions contained novel epitopes, that is, epitopes not listed in the Los Alamos National Laboratory HIV Sequence Database, which were able in vitro to stimulate vaccinees’ CD4+ T cells to proliferate and produce interferon-γ and tumor necrosis factor-α. Accumulation of HLA class II epitopes will eventually accelerate development of HIV-1 prophylactic and therapeutic vaccines.
Surface Immunogenic Protein of Streptococcus Group B is an Agonist of Toll-Like Receptors 2 and 4 and a Potential Immune Adjuvant
Authors: Diaz-Dinamarca Diego A. , Manzo Ricardo A. , Soto Daniel A. , Avendaño-Valenzuela María José , Bastias Diego N. , Soto Paulina I. , Escobar Daniel F. , Vasquez-Saez Valeria , Carrión Flavio , Pizarro-Ortega Magdalena S. , Wilson Christian A. M. , Berrios Julio , Kalergis Alexis M. , Vasquez Abel E.
Published: January 2020

Vaccine-induced protection against pathogens, especially subunit-based vaccines, are related to antigen properties but mainly in their ability to stimulate the immune system by the use of an adjuvant. Modern vaccines are formulated with a high level of antigen purity, where an efficient adjuvant is necessary. In this context, the use of protein Toll-Like Receptor (TLR) agonists as vaccine adjuvants has been highlighted because of their optimal immunogenicity and minimal toxicity. The Surface Immunogenic Protein (SIP) from Group B Streptococcus (GBS) has gained importance as a new potential protein-based vaccine. Recently, we reported that recombinant SIP (rSIP) expressed by E. coli and purified by High Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) alone induces a protective humoral immune response. In this study, we present the immunomodulatory properties of rSIP as a protein-based adjuvant, as an agonist of TLR. To this end, we showed that C57BL/6 bone marrow-derived dendritic cells pulsed by rSIP resulted in enhanced CD40, CD80, CD86, and Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) class II as well as increased secretion proinflammatory cytokines Interleukin (IL)-6, Interferon (IFN)-γ, Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF)-α, and IL-10. Next, we investigated the in vivo effect of rSIP in the absence or presence of ovalbumin (OVA) on antigen-specific antibody secretion in C57BL/6 mice. Immunization with rSIP plus OVA showed that anti-OVA IgG2a and IgG1a increased significantly compared with OVA alone in C57BL/6 mice. Also, the immunization of rSIP plus OVA generates increased serum cytokines levels characterized by IL-12p70, IL-10, IL-4, and IFN-γ. Interestingly, we observed that rSIP stimulate Toll Like Receptor (TLR)2 and TLR4, individually expressed by Human embryonic kidney (HEK) 293-derived TLR reporter cells. These findings suggest that rSIP is a new potential protein TLR agonist adjuvant and may be employed in the development of new vaccines.
Efficient Double-Tee Junction Mixing Assessment by Machine Learning
Authors: Grbčić Luka , Kranjčević Lado , Družeta Siniša , Lučin Ivana
Published: January 2020

A new approach in modeling of mixing phenomena in double-Tee pipe junctions based on machine learning is presented in this paper. Machine learning represents a paradigm shift that can be efficiently used to calculate needed mixing parameters. Usually, these parameters are obtained either by experiment or by computational fluid dynamics (CFD) numerical modeling. A machine learning approach is used together with a CFD model. The CFD model was calibrated with experimental data from a previous study and it served as a generator of input data for the machine learning metamodels—Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Support Vector Regression (SVR). Metamodel input variables are defined as inlet pipe flow ratio, outlet pipe flow ratio, and the distance between the pipe junctions, with the output parameter being the branch pipe outlet to main inlet pipe mixing ratio. A comparison of ANN and SVR models showed that ANN outperforms SVR in accuracy for a given problem. Consequently, ANN proved to be a viable way to model mixing phenomena in double-Tee junctions also because its mixing prediction time is extremely efficient (compared to CFD time). Because of its high computational efficiency, the machine learning metamodel can be directly incorporated into pipe network numerical models in future studies.
A Comparative Study of Kernel Logistic Regression, Radial Basis Function Classifier, Multinomial Naïve Bayes, and Logistic Model Tree for Flash Flood Susceptibility Mapping
Authors: Pham Binh Thai , Phong Tran Van , Nguyen Huu Duy , Qi Chongchong , Al-Ansari Nadhir , Amini Ata , Ho Lanh Si , Tuyen Tran Thi , Yen Hoang Phan Hai , Ly Hai-Bang , Prakash Indra , Tien Bui Dieu
Published: January 2020

Risk of flash floods is currently an important problem in many parts of Vietnam. In this study, we used four machine-learning methods, namely Kernel Logistic Regression (KLR), Radial Basis Function Classifier (RBFC), Multinomial Naïve Bayes (NBM), and Logistic Model Tree (LMT) to generate flash flood susceptibility maps at the minor part of Nghe An province of the Center region (Vietnam) where recurrent flood problems are being experienced. Performance of these four methods was evaluated to select the best method for flash flood susceptibility mapping. In the model studies, ten flash flood conditioning factors, namely soil, slope, curvature, river density, flow direction, distance from rivers, elevation, aspect, land use, and geology, were chosen based on topography and geo-environmental conditions of the site. For the validation of models, the area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC), Area Under Curve (AUC), and various statistical indices were used. The results indicated that performance of all the models is good for generating flash flood susceptibility maps (AUC = 0.983–0.988). However, performance of LMT model is the best among the four methods (LMT: AUC = 0.988; KLR: AUC = 0.985; RBFC: AUC = 0.984; and NBM: AUC = 0.983). The present study would be useful for the construction of accurate flash flood susceptibility maps with the objectives of identifying flood-susceptible areas/zones for proper flash flood risk management.
Assessing Anthropogenic Impacts on Chemical and Biochemical Oxygen Demand in Different Spatial Scales with Bayesian Networks
Authors: Xu Jing , Jin Guangqiu , Mo Yuming , Tang Hongwu , Li Ling
Published: January 2020

In order to protect the water environment in seriously polluted basins, the impacts of anthropogenic activities (sewage outfalls and land use) on water quality should be assessed. The Bayesian network (BN) provides a convenient way to model these complex processes. In this study, anthropogenic impacts on chemical oxygen demand (COD) and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) were evaluated in the Huaihe River basin (HRB) considering dry and wet seasons and different spatial scales. The results showed that anthropogenic activities had the most significant impacts on COD and BOD at the catchment scale. In dry seasons, sewage outfalls played an important role in organic pollution. Farmland became the most important source in wet seasons although it had a “sink” process in dry seasons. Intensive human activities in urban made significant contributions to increased COD levels. Grassland had a negative relationship with organic pollution, especially in dry seasons. Therefore, governments should implement strategies to control organic matters transported from urban and farmland regions. Increasing the efficiency of wastewater treatments and the percentage of grassland in the riparian zone could improve water quality. These results can enhance understanding of anthropogenic impacts on water quality and contribute to efficient management for river basins.
Inter-Regional Agricultural Virtual Water Flow in China Based on Volumetric and Impact-Oriented Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) Approach
Authors: Ren Yingying , Huang Kai , Yu Yajuan , Hu Jingru
Published: January 2020

Virtual water trading is an effective strategy to alleviate water shortage. Several different methods have been developed to achieve quantitative description and evaluation of virtual water, which can be broadly divided into volumetric and impact-oriented water footprint approaches. The former focuses on the consumption of water resources, while the latter puts greater emphasis on assessing the water use impacts. Based on the volumetric and impact-oriented water footprint, this paper conducted a comprehensive study on the virtual water flow of agricultural products among regions in China. The results show that different water footprint evaluation methods have different tendencies in evaluating virtual water flow. Volumetric virtual water mainly flows from northwest and northeast China to north and east China, while impact-oriented virtual water mainly flows from northwest and central south China to east and north China. Northwest China is the largest net export region of agricultural virtual water, and it is dominated by direct water consumption. In addition, we compared the net export volume of virtual water and the water shortage situation among regions in China. North China, where the water shortage is very serious, mainly relies on external water sources, while northwest China, which also faces a water shortage problem, exports a large amount of virtual water to external sources. The findings of this study highlight the importance of taking full account of the response measures in both cases when formulating policies. In other words, the virtual water strategy should consider water quantity and water quality simultaneously.
Using a Tank Model to Determine Hydro-Meteorological Thresholds for Large-Scale Landslides in Taiwan
Authors: Lin Guan-Wei , Kuo Hsien-Li , Chen Chi-Wen , Wei Lun-Wei , Zhang Jia-Ming
Published: January 2020

Rainfall thresholds for slope failures are essential information for establishing early-warning systems and for disaster risk reduction. Studies on the thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides of different scales have been undertaken in recent decades. This study attempts to establish a warning threshold for large-scale landslides (LSLs), which are defined as landslides with a disturbed area more massive than 0.1 km2. The numerous landslides and extensive rainfall records make Taiwan an appropriate area to investigate the rainfall conditions that can result in LSLs. We used landslide information from multiple sources and rainfall data captured by 594 rain gauges to create a database of 83 rainfall events associated with LSLs in Taiwan between 2001 and 2016. The corresponding rainfall duration, cumulative event rainfall, and rainfall intensity for triggering LSLs were determined. This study adopted the tank model to estimate conceptual water depths (S1, S2, S3) in three-layer tanks and calculated the soil water index (SWI) by summing up the water depths in the three tanks. The empirical SWI and duration (SWI–D) threshold for triggering LSLs occurring during 2001–2013 in Taiwan is determined as SWI = 155.20 − 1.56D and D ≥ 24 h. The SWI–D threshold for LSLs is higher than that for small-scale landslides (SSLs), those with a disturbed area smaller than 0.1 km2. The LSLs that occurred during 2015–2016 support this finding. It is notable that when the SWI and S3 reached high values, the potential of LSLs increased significantly. The rainfall conditions for triggering LSLs gradually descend with increases in antecedent SWI. Unlike the rainfall conditions for triggering SSLs, those for triggering LSLs are related to the long duration–high intensity type of rainfall event.
The Evolution of Gravel-Bed Rivers during the Post-Regulation Period in the Polish Carpathians
Authors: Gorczyca Elżbieta , Krzemień Kazimierz , Jarzyna Krzysztof
Published: January 2020

This study provides a conceptual model of the functioning of gravel-bed rivers during the post-regulation period in Poland and forecasts their subsequent evolution. The main difference between fluvial processes during the pre-regulation and post-regulation period is that they are limited to a zone that is currently several times narrower and trapped in a deep-cut channel. During the river post-regulation period, the construction of additional river training works was significantly limited in river channels. Moreover, all forms of economic activity were significantly reduced in the channel free migration zone, particularly bed gravel extraction operations. As a result of these changes, a limited recovery of the functioning and hydromorphology of the river channel occurred via a return to conditions in effect prior to river regulation. In recovering sections of river, the channel gradually broadens, and its sinuosity and number of threads increase. The overall process can be called spontaneous renaturalization, which yields a characteristic post-regulation river channel. The conceptual model was developed on the basis of the evolution of the gravel-bed river, the Raba River, during the post-regulation period in the Polish Carpathian Mountains.
A Fuzzy Transformation of the Classic Stream Sediment Transport Formula of Yang
Authors: Kaffas Konstantinos , Saridakis Matthaios , Spiliotis Mike , Hrissanthou Vlassios , Righetti Maurizio
Published: January 2020

The objective of this study is to transform the arithmetic coefficients of the total sediment transport rate formula of Yang into fuzzy numbers, and thus create a fuzzy relationship that will provide a fuzzy band of in-stream sediment concentration. A very large set of experimental data, in flumes, was used for the fuzzy regression analysis. In a first stage, the arithmetic coefficients of the original equation were recalculated, by means of multiple regression, in an effort to verify the quality of data, by testing the closeness between the original and the calculated coefficients. Subsequently, the fuzzy relationship was built up, utilizing the fuzzy linear regression model of Tanaka. According to Tanaka’s fuzzy regression model, all the data must be included within the produced fuzzy band and the non-linear regression can be concluded to a linear regression problem when auxiliary variables are used. The results were deemed satisfactory for both the classic and fuzzy regression-derived equations. In addition, the linear dependence between the logarithmized total sediment concentration and the logarithmized subtraction of the critical unit stream power from the exerted unit stream power is presented. Ultimately, a fuzzy counterpart of Yang’s stream sediment transport formula is constructed and made available to the readership.
Longevity Aspects of Potable Water Disinfected by Ionic Silver: Kinetic Experiments and Modeling
Authors: Petala Maria , Tsiridis Vasilios , Darakas Efthymios , Kostoglou Margaritis
Published: January 2020

In the International Space Station (ISS), Russian and European cosmonauts drink water disinfected by dissolved silver. For this to be effective, the concentration of silver should remain above a certain threshold from the moment of its initial disposition in storage tanks on earth until its final consumption in ISS. Unfortunately, during water tanks transportation to ISS and during storage in ISS, silver concentration has been reported to decrease intensively beyond any reason. This work examines the effect of different materials used in ISS water storage and distribution systems on the reduction of silver concentration. An experimental campaign has been organized where passivated stainless steel (SS), passivated and electropolished SS and titanium alloy coupons (official ISS grades) are exposed to simulated ISS potable water at different silver concentrations, different surface to volume ratios, and at stagnant or flow conditions. The evolution of silver concentration remaining in the bulk water is recorded with respect to the exposure time. A reaction engineering model for the Ag loss to the coupons is developed. The model is fitted to the experimental data in order to derive the reaction rate expression and the corresponding parameters. For passivated SS and electropolished SS the silver deposition rate depends on the initial silver concentration in water but is rather unaffected by the progress of silver deposition on the surface. On the other hand, for Ti alloy, while silver deposition rate still depends on initial silver concentration, it decreases continuously as silver deposition on the surface advances, implying that Ti alloy surface becomes gradually saturated and so prevents further silver deposition. Such a model can be useful for material selection and design of water storage and distribution facilities for ISS.
Evaluation of the Groundwater Quality Using the Water Quality Index and Geostatistical Analysis in the Dier al-Balah Governorate, Gaza Strip, Palestine
Authors: El Baba Moustafa , Kayastha Prabin , Huysmans Marijke , De Smedt Florimond
Published: January 2020

Groundwater contamination is a major problem in the Gaza Strip. In this study we investigate the groundwater quality in the Dier al-Balah Governorate. Water samples were collected from 19 municipal wells in April 2009 and April 2014 and analyzed for physio-chemical parameters (pH, TDS, Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+, K+, Cl−, SO42–, HCO3− and NO3−). The aim of the research is to determine the groundwater quality and to produce groundwater quality maps using the water quality index (WQI) method and geostatistical analysis. The results show that all water samples are very saline due to the intrusion of Mediterranean seawater in the coastal aquifer. Differences in chemical composition between 2009 and 2014 indicate that about 1% more seawater was mixed with the groundwater in this period. The majority of the observed chemical parameters of all wells are well above the WHO water quality standards and all WQI values indicate that the water quality is problematic. The spatial variation of the WQI scores is modelled by a deterministic component expressing a linear dependence on the distance to the coastline and a stochastic residual described by an exponential variogram with a practical range of 3000 m. The mapping of the WQI scores and derived water quality classes is achieved through regression-kriging. The results indicate that the groundwater in a large area along the coastline is unsuitable for human consumption and comparison of the maps of 2009 and 2014 shows that this region further expanded by about 700 m inland in a period of 5 years. The results of this study are worrying, but they also contribute to a better understanding of the factors that determine the groundwater quality and can help authorities and stakeholders with sustainable development.
Effects of Farming Activities on the Temporal and Spatial Changes of Hydrogen and Oxygen Isotopes Present in Groundwater in the Hani Rice Terraces, Southwest China
Authors: Liu Chengjing , Jiao Yuanmei , Zhao Dongmei , Ding Yinping , Liu Zhilin , Xu Qiue
Published: January 2020

Landform changes caused by human activities can directly affect the recharge of groundwater, and are reflected in the temporal and spatial changes in groundwater stable isotope composition. These changes are particularly evident in high-intensity farming areas. In this study, we tested and analyzed groundwater stable isotope samples at different elevations of rice terraces in a typical agricultural watershed of the Hani Terraces, a World Heritage Cultural Landscape in southwest China. Thus, we determined the characteristic variations and factors that influence the temporal and spatial effects on groundwater stable isotopes in the Hani Terraces, which are under the influence of high-intensity farming activities. The elevation gradients of δ18O and δ2H in groundwater are significantly increased due to farming activities. The values were 0.88‰ (100 m)−1 and −4.5‰ (100 m)−1, respectively, and they changed with time. The groundwater circulation cycle is approximately three months. We also used the special temporal and spatial variation characteristics of the groundwater isotopes as a way to evaluate the source and periodic changes of groundwater recharge. In addition, high-intensity rice farming activities, such as ploughing every year from October to January can increase the supply of terraced water to groundwater, thus ensuring the sustainability of rice cultivation in the terraces during the dry season. This demonstrates the role of human wisdom in the sustainable and benign transformation of surface cover and the regulation of groundwater circulation.
The Drag Effect of Water Resources on China’s Regional Economic Growth: Analysis Based on the Temporal and Spatial Dimensions
Authors: Zhang Yao , Liu Wenxin , Zhao Minjuan
Published: January 2020

Studying the influencing factors of the drag effect of water resources and its temporal–spatial variation can help governments to solve the problem of water resource constraints on the economic growth of different regions. Based on Romer’s hypothesis, this paper uses panel data to empirically analyze the drag effect of water resources in China’s 31 provinces from 1987 to 2017. The research shows that: (1) Water resources have certain constraints on the economic growth of each region. Regional economic growth has declined by 0.23% (eastern), 0.07% (western), 0.43% (central) and 0.09% (northeastern) annually. (2) In provinces with rapid labor growth, water resources have a greater impact on economic growth. In provinces with low labor growth rates, the drag effect of water resources on economic growth is affected by the capital stock of the region. (3) Through the analysis of the water drag effect in different time periods, this paper finds that in some periods, the government’s mobilization of water resources for the economic growth in some regions will not only promote the transfer of labor between regions, but also cause changes in the regional water resources. According to the results of this paper, the following conclusions can be drawn: (1) It is necessary to vigorously develop water-saving agriculture, improve technical efficiency, and reduce the strong dependence of economic growth on water resources in the provinces which has a strong water drag effect on economic growth; (2) Provinces with moderate water resource constraints should take the lead in deploying strategic emerging industries, and accelerate the development of the tertiary industry; (3) Provinces with weakly water resource restrictions can promote the development of capital-based industries. Not only can the development of the economy be rational, but it can also reduce the economy’s dependence on resources, thereby achieving the sustainable use of water resources and sustainable economic growth.
Temporal Probability Assessment and Its Use in Landslide Susceptibility Mapping for Eastern Bhutan
Authors: Dikshit Abhirup , Sarkar Raju , Pradhan Biswajeet , Jena Ratiranjan , Drukpa Dowchu , Alamri Abdullah M.
Published: January 2020

Landslides are one of the major natural disasters that Bhutan faces every year. The monsoon season in Bhutan is usually marked by heavy rainfall, which leads to multiple landslides, especially across the highways, and affects the entire transportation network of the nation. The determinations of rainfall thresholds are often used to predict the possible occurrence of landslides. A rainfall threshold was defined along Samdrup Jongkhar–Trashigang highway in eastern Bhutan using cumulated event rainfall and antecedent rainfall conditions. Threshold values were determined using the available daily rainfall and landslide data from 2014 to 2017, and validated using the 2018 dataset. The threshold determined was used to estimate temporal probability using a Poisson probability model. Finally, a landslide susceptibility map using the analytic hierarchy process was developed for the highway to identify the sections of the highway that are more susceptible to landslides. The accuracy of the model was validated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves. The results presented here may be regarded as a first step towards understanding of landslide hazards and development of an early warning system for a region where such studies have not previously been conducted.
SewerSedFoam: A Model for Free Surface Flow, Sediment Transport, and Deposited Bed Morphology in Sewers
Authors: Murali Madhu K , Hipsey Matthew R , Ghadouani Anas , Yuan Zhiguo
Published: January 2020

This paper aims to bridge the gap in the detailed modelling of flow and sediment process interactions in sewers through the development of a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model. It draws on previous models developed for surface water sediment transport in the OpenFOAM CFD framework and builds on them to improve their suitability for sewer sediment processes. Three distinct sediment processes, suspended sediment transport, bedload transport, and deposited bed morphology, are incorporated into a free surface flow solver, interFoam. This sewer sediment model, called SewerSedFoam, models the impacts of sediment deposition and erosion on flow velocity by using dynamic mesh deformation to capture the movement of the deposited bed and its morphology. Further, three sediment classes, two suspended and one bedload sediment, can be modelled along with some bed stabilization and consolidation effects during deposition and erosion, respectively. The functionality of the overall model in modelling sewer sediment deposition and erosion is promising, although the validation of a large magnitude sediment erosion event has been limited by the availability of granular data in existing case studies.
INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN FOREST INDUSTRY
Authors: Pirtskhalava Nana , Karpov Aleksandr
Published: January 2020

Russia is the richest country with forest resources. It accounts for 22 % of the world's forest cover and half of the world's coniferous wood reserves. According to forecasts, the demand for commercial wood will increase by about 150 million cubic meters by 2030. There is only one real source – Russia's reserves. Reserves today amount to more than 83 billion cubic meters. For enterprises of the Arkhangelsk region, the main markets for woodworking products are China, the USA, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Egypt. Based on this, the study has formed a logistic export system for three transportation options. In addition, studies have been carried out on the basis of UNCTAD, EUROSTAT and FAO materials, as well as SEARATES technical and economic data. When choosing a logistics system option, an integrated economic assessment of costs by components has been used: material flow, information flow, and logistics intermediaries. The study has examined six potential routes for delivering timber between ports in East Asia (Shanghai) and Europe (Rotterdam). Based on the results of the research, the following conclusions can be drawn. The study has addressed the issue of transportation along the Northern Sea Route (HIAR). Transportation along this route is possible only in the event of global warming and accelerated retreat of the Arctic sea ice. The economic strength for distance savings from Asia to Europe makes the northern route a likely driver of change in transportation networks
DEVELOPMENT OF CIRCULAR ECONOMY IN RUSSIA: BIOFUEL MARKET
Authors: Tambi A. , Morkovina Svetlana , Grigorev Igor , Grigor'ev V
Published: January 2020

The growing interest in energy security and renewable energy in Europe and Asia has stimulated the demand for wood briquettes and pellets. The production of energy from pellets per unit of investment is cheaper than the production of gas and oil, which determines the development of a circular economy in the Russian Federation. In Russia the main producers of pellets and fuel briquettes are large timber companies. At the same time, small business is an active producer of biofuels. The article presents the results of an expert survey of business representatives in the field of biofuel production, as well as analytical information on production, capacity utilization, sales and raw materials for the production of fuel briquettes from wood waste in the Russian Federation. It has been established that the main factors affecting the price of pellets and fuel briquettes are: formed market demand, the method of transportation and packaging of products, as well as their quality. Expanding domestic production of wood pellets is the number one task for Russian producers, given the growth of the global pellet market. Moreover, in a number of countries in Europe and America, the main exporters of pellets and fuel briquettes, measures to support manufacturers are actively implemented. Support is needed at all state levels to accelerate the development of new industries and industries in the field of biofuel and bioenergy. The most popular measures to support domestic producers of biofuels may be reduction in tax rates, compensation for the costs of certification of products for small and medium-sized businesses. According to our estimates, we can expect further growth in the production of fuel briquettes, the intensity of which will, in many respects, be determined by the possibility of subsidizing transport transportation and the development of the domestic biofuel market. The domestic market for pellets and fuel briquettes will stagnate without the support of biofuel producers, and pricing and certification is an important element for developing the export potential of industry enterprises
Fiscal Policy and Growth
Authors: Mercado Alejandro F.
Published: January 2020

The households have gone crazy, they have decided to give less food to their children, to restrict their essential expenses to the minimum, to buy less clothes and not to pay school fees and tuition for their children, all of this with the sole objective of saving money. Some households save their money in the financial system, but most accumulate it in their houses, under their mattress. The madness also touches investors, their animal spirits have disappeared and they have reduced their investments, because, strangely, they no longer like to obtain earnings. The bankers, on the other hand, no longer lend money; they maintain the deposits of their clients in vaults and prefer to lose interest payments instead of lending money and increasing profits.
Segmentación en el mercado matrimonial
Authors: F. Mercado Alejandro , Leitón Jorge , Ríos Fernando
Published: January 2020

El crecimiento de la economía boliviana, en los últimos cincuenta años, refleja un virtual estancamiento en las condiciones de vida de la población A pesar de los esfuer­zos realizados, la pobreza castiga a la mitad de la población boliviana Recientes traba­jos dan cuenta que la principal causa explicativa de esta situación seria la baja movili­dad social.

El presente trabajo indaga sobre los elementos que estarían detrás de esta baja mo­vilidad social, haciendo énfasis en el mercado matrimonial, bajo la hipótesis de que és­te podría estar actuando como un mecanismo que refuerza la baja movilidad social En este contexto, el mercado matrimonial es analizado como un nexo entre la movilidad social y el mercado de trabajo Los resultados muestran, evidentemente, una fuerte seg­mentación en el mercado matrimonial que estaría frenando la movilidad social y se constituiría también en un factor explicativo de un funcionamiento poco transparente del mercado de trabajo.
Condiciones de vida de la población y su relación con el comportamiento demográfico
Authors: Guzmán Escobari Andrés Leonardo
Published: January 2020

Bolivia es un país pobre con elevadas tasas de fecundidad; según la teoría económica, estas características, propias de un país subdesarrollado, se encuentran correlacionadas cuando la economía y el avance tecnológico no se desarrollan, porque existe una relación inversa entre el crecimiento demográfico y la variación del ingreso per cápita.

La mayor parte de la población boliviana vive en condiciones de vida inapropiadas, ya que viven en casas construidas con materiales de mala calidad, con poco o ningún acceso a los servicios básicos (como electricidad, agua potable y alcantarillado), presentan bajos niveles de educación y en muchos casos mala salud. A todo esto se debe sumar que Bolivia es el país con la mayor tasa de fecundidad en Sudamérica, situación que se ha mantenido ya por varias décadas, y, pese a que este indicador ha venido disminuyendo, aún es muy alto para una economía con bajos niveles de desarrollo. La elevada fecundidad de las mujeres bolivianas ha producido un crecimiento demográfico acelerado que, al combinarse con la pobreza de la mayor parte de sus habitantes, representa un problema económico que debe ser estudiado para ser resuelto.
Bolivia: perspectivas económicas 2005-2014
Authors: Mercado Alejandro F. , Leitón Jorge , Medinaceli Monrroy Mauricio , Aguilar Tirza J. , Chacón Marcelo , Ibiett Javier
Published: January 2020

Dadas las características de la economía boliviana: pequeña, muy abierta al comercio exterior, con un sector público muy grande y con tasas de ocupación interna muy bajas, las proyecciones de los escenarios (optimista y pesimista) para los años 2005 a 2014 requieren incorporar algunas hipótesis respecto a la inversión extranjera, la participación del gobierno en la economía, la política monetaria y cambiaría, y los precios internacionales, entre otros. El deterioro del cuadro político interno y el incremento de los conflictos sociales perjudicaron al país de dos maneras: una contracción en el financiamiento externo para cubrir el elevado déficit fiscal y una caída en el flujo de la inversión extranjera directa, recursos necesarios para el desarrollo de los sectores relacionados a la exploración de recursos naturales (hidrocarburos) que garantizarían un crecimiento sostenible y menos dependiente de shocks externos en los próximos años. Para cada escenario se proyectaron las principales variables macroeconómicas y financieras, dando como resultado importante que el PIB en el escenario favorable solamente crece 3 por ciento y en el pesimista se reduce en 2.4 por ciento.
Un programa piloto de crédito en el contexto del desarrollo alternativo: teoría y praxis
Authors: Quiroga Crespo Eduardo
Published: January 2020

La subregión del Trópico de Cochabamba forma parte de la Cuenca Amazónica y abarca cinco municipios: Villa Tunari, Chimoré, Puerto Villarroel, Entre Ríos y la agencia cantonal de Shinahota (las cabeceras municipales no forman parte del Trópico). Su superficie alcanza a 37.390 km2 y su población, en 2001, a 145.050 habitantes, de asentamiento relativamente reciente y predominantemente campesina (84 por ciento de población rural). Su situación ha mejorado relativamente en los últimos 30 años pero aún presenta fuertes carencias.
Análisis espacial del precio de oferta de la vivienda en el área metropolitana de Cochabamba
Authors: Collazos Reyes Elda , Gamboa Pérez Wilma , Prado Velasco Pablo , Verardi Vincenzo
Published: January 2020

La idea principal del presente artículo es identificar cuáles son las características que determinan la fijación del precio de oferta en la estructura del mercado inmobiliario (viviendas de propiedad individual), considerando la heterogeneidad espacial. El estudio fue realizado en la zona metropolitana de la ciudad de Cochabamba, donde la oferta de mercancía inmobiliaria responde a múltiples factores, entre ellos la localización, por lo que en el análisis se utiliza un modelo de precios hedónicos, asociado a técnicas de econometría espacial (I de Moran, modelo de autocorrelación espacial y GWR). Los resultados del trabajo son presentados en mapas temáticos generados en el entorno del Sistema de Información Geográfica ArcGis, los mismos que tienen la propiedad de mostrar de acuerdo a la ubicación el nivel de influencia individual de las variables explicativas (características o atributos) sobre el precio.
Bolivia: Impact of Shocks and Poverty Policy on Household Welfare
Authors: Barja Daza Gover , Monterrey Arce Javier , Villarroel Bohrt Sergio
Published: January 2020

This paper evaluates the short term impacts on poverty of pro-poor expenditure and total social expenditure during the 1998-2002 period of Bolivian economic recession. Observed characteristics of recession are simulated by the combined effects of negative terms of trade shock, reduction in foreign saving flows and low output growth. Evaluation is performed by simulating the impacts of shocks and social expenditures in an environment of low growth: i) on macro aggregates of consumption, income, saving and prices (based on a simple static 1-2-3 model), ii) on household income and consumption levels, and iii) on consumption based poverty indicators. The following were main results from experiments:The terms of trade shock had greater negative impact on household income then reduction in foreign saving flows. In contrast, reduction in foreign saving flows had greater negative impact on household consumption then the terms of trade shock. The head count ratio has been greater from reduction in foreign saving flows then from the terms of trade shock. Poverty gap and poverty intensity has concentrated in rural areas, being greater from reduction in foreign saving flows then from the terms of trade shock.The combined positive effects from observed social expenditure policy and effort in an environment of low output growth, did not compensate the combined negative impacts from the experienced terms of trade shock and reduction in foreign saving flows.These conclusions show that under macroeconomic disequilibrium poverty reduction efforts become policies of poverty containment or safety net programs. Poverty reduction is a long term objective that requires long term commitment for an environment on macroeconomic stability.
The Impact of Migration on Foreign Trade in Bolivia
Authors: Canavire Bacarreza Gustavo Javier , Ehrlich Laura
Published: January 2020

While the causal relationship between migration and trade has not been studied thoroughly, estimation results of empirical studies suggest that important aspects determining trade volumes can be missed if additional factors, including migration, are not considered. The current paper aims at testing the impact of migration on foreign trade in a small economy like Bolivia. We test the impact of both, immigration and emigration on exports and imports and also on intra-industry trade. We use gravity model approach to this end. We control for the economic size and geographical location of trade partners, and for changes in terms of trade. Our results show relatively similar impact of both immigration and emigration on foreign trade, confirming positive significant effect of immigration on exports and imports also in Bolivia, even when the migration flows in Bolivia are not as high as in the case of most countries analyzed previously. The imports elasticities are slightly higher, both elasticities are closer to the lower margin of the range based on previous studies. We can conclude positive effect of migration flows also on intra-industry trade, somewhat surprisingly the impact of emigration being much higher than that of immigration. Our estimation results on Bolivia show that migration has effect on foreign trade, even if the share of migrants in the population is low.
Social Rates of Return to R&D, Scientists, Engineers and Tertiary Education System Investments: International Evidence
Authors: Dias Joilson , Ambrosio Dias María Helena
Published: January 2020

The objective of this paper is to estimate the social rates of returns to tertiary education investment and its output —R&D and scientists and engineers— in the economy. In measuring this social impact, we account for the endogeneity problems using instrumental variables. Our instruments are the ones suggested by Hall and Jones (1999). Our econometric results show that the investments variables are indeed endogenous and that our instruments indeed represent the social capital of the economies. The estimated social rates of return to the investments in R&D, scientist and engineers and tertiary education for 70 countries are well above the private one, which may justify targeted policies.
Tasas de interés y desempeño diferenciado de cartera de las entidades de microfinanzas ante múltiples shocks sistémicos: ¿Se cumple el teorema de Stiglitz y Weiss en las microfinanzas bolivianas?
Authors: Villafani-lbarnegaray Marcelo , Gónzales- Vega Claudio
Published: January 2020

Por la inestabilidad social, política y macroeconómica que Bolivia ha experimentado en la última década, el sistema financiero ha estado expuesto a sucesivos y acumulativos shocks sistémicos. Sin embargo, la incidencia de estos riesgos no ha sido uniforme entre las entidades financieras. En contraste con el comportamiento del resto del sistema, las organizaciones de microfinanzas (OMF) han expandido sus carteras de préstamos, en un entorno macroeconómico recesivo y caracterizado por incertidumbre política. Este comportamiento diferenciado, así como el mayor nivel de tasas de interés de sus préstamos, preocupan a las autoridades financieras. Utilizando el teorema de Stiglitz y Weiss y extendiendo su alcance, este artículo muestra que el crecimiento de las OMF ha sido resultado de una afortunada combinación entre las tecnologías financieras aplicadas, sucesivamente mejoradas, y las características de la clientela atendida. Los resultados justifican reencauzar el debate sobre política financiera para favorecer a los segmentos más vulnerables de la población.
Exchange Rate Volatility in Emerging Markets: The Chilean Case
Authors: Castro Juan R.
Published: January 2020

This paper empirically investigates the volatility of the Chilean pegged exchange rate regime using a target zone model. Using the ARCH model, this paper tests the exchange rate volatility in the presence of different levels of foreign reserves and other macro shocks. It is found that the domestic credit, domestic debt, and foreign debt have the largest volatility of the variables tested when compared with other fundamental variables. The variance of the exchange rate is heteroskedastic but not persistent, which implies that the exchange rate was stable, probably moving within the band. The exchange rate volatility fluctuates more with domestic and foreign debt than with the other variables tested.
¿En qué magnitud el crecimiento beneficia a los pobres? Evidencia para Bolivia 1994-2002
Authors: Ochoa C Marcelo , Zapata S. Daniela
Published: January 2020

Este documento investiga si el crecimiento económico es un instrumento importante para la reducción de la pobreza y, en qué medida los pobres se benefician. Utilizando tres metodologías diferentes, la descomposición de cambios en la pobreza y dos medidas alternativas de crecimiento pro-pobre, se exploran los beneficios y costos que enfrentan los más pobres en Bolivia durante un periodo de alto crecimiento (1994- 1997) y un periodo de contracción económica (1999-2002). La evidencia sugiere que existe una distribución desigual entre la población de los beneficios del crecimiento y las pérdidas de las contracciones económicas. A pesar de que los pobres si se benefician del crecimiento, reciben ganancias menores que las que presentan los hogares de mayores ingresos. Por el contrario, cuando la economía se contrae los pobres sufren una mayor pérdida que la presentada por hogares de mayor ingreso. Aparentemente las crisis golpean con mayor fuerza a los pobres y las épocas de expansión benefician proporcionalmente más a los hogares de mayor ingreso.
El liberalismo político de Karl Popper
Authors: Zanotti Gabriel J.
Published: January 2020

La interpretacion habitual del liberalismo politico de Karl Popper considera que este es una sedimentacion de su filosofia de las ciencias, cuya base esta en la imposibilidad de un conocimiento cierto. El presente trabajo tiene la intencion de demostrar que dicha interpretacion no responde a una lectura adecuada de la filosofia politica de Popper, la que mas bien esta construida sobre la base de un imperativo categorico derivado de su etica.
¿Hacia dónde se encamina la descentralización fiscal en Bolivia?
Authors: Evia José Luis , Coronado Ximena , Steinich Markus
Published: January 2020

La Ley de Participación Popular, aprobada en 1994, empezó un vigoroso proceso de descentralización en el país. Este proceso se ha profundizado desde entonces; los recursos administrados por los municipios, y en menor medida por las prefecturas, han mostrado un fuerte crecimiento. En contraste con los mayores recursos provenientes por transferencias, los recursos propios no han mostrado un desarrollo similar, ni se han incrementado de manera importante las competencias de las entidades descentralizadas. El desarrollo de capacidades de los gobiernos subnacionales muestra una elevada dispersión, con municipios que han generado un nivel aceptable de capacidades, y otros carentes de éstas, mientras las prefecturas recién comienzan este proceso. Éste es el entorno en el que se ha de definir la nueva fase de la descentralización. La propuesta de Constitución Política del Estado aprobada en Oruro y los Estatutos Autonómicos propuestos por varias regiones incorporan en sus diseños propuestas para esta fase de descentralización. El artículo examina estas propuestas y plantea los desafíos que este proceso deberá encarar, así como las consideraciones que la cooperación técnica alemana (GTZ), con sus contrapartes bolivianas, debe tener presente al diseñar sus programas de cooperación técnica.
Evaluación del costo-efectividad del gasto social en educación y salud en Bolivia
Authors: Larrazábal Antezana Eric
Published: January 2020

Una de las mayores preocupaciones de la política de desarrollo reside en mejorar la calidad de los recursos humanos para alcanzar niveles de productividad más altos. La calidad en el trabajo puede alcanzarse por medio de la educación y el mejoramiento de los niveles de salud y nutrición de la población. El presente trabajo apela al Análisis Costo-efectividad como una forma de evaluar el impacto del gasto social en Bolivia a lo largo de una década, el cual, independientemente de los diversos cambios de administración gubernamental que ocurrieron, se mantuvo consistente, y, lo que es más importante, mostró resultados efectivos en la población estudiantil y en la salud de la población. La limitación recurrente reside en la disponibilidad de información estadística desagregada a nivel municipal para evaluar la efectividad del gasto social a ese nivel. Ello restringe de manera determinante las labores de monitoreo y evaluación de las políticas públicas de educación y salud, tanto a nivel nacional como a nivel local y regional por las entidades estatales correspondientes.
El modelo económico chileno y su relación con Bolivia
Authors: Quitral Rojas Máximo
Published: January 2020

La presente investigación forma parte de una indagación de años y pretende conectar las economías chilena y boliviana en un escenario favorable para el encierro geográfico del país vecino. Durante los regímenes militares chileno y boliviano, y el proceso de transición a la democracia acontecido en Bolivia, perduró en el tiempo una relación bilateral económica apartada de los conflictos políticos presente en la Historia de los Estados en cuestión. Esta dinámica relación fue fomentada desde los consejeros económicos de la junta militar criolla, los llamados Chicago Boys, quienes desarrollaron la externalización del modelo chileno para contener el alto grado de aislamiento internacional del régimen militar.