bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Communication—Comment on Designing Scientific Journals
Authors: Cattin Philippe
Published: November 2008

In a recent article in this journal, King, Kilmann and Sochats [King, W. R., Kilmann, R. H., Sochats, K. 1978. Designing scientific journals: issues and survey results. Management Sci. 24 (7, March) 774–784.] report the results of a survey of authors and readers of Management Science, and discuss some interesting implications on the Designing of Scientific Journals. This is a comment about that article.
Communication—On Analyzing Survey Data for Journal Design
Authors: King William R. , Kilmann Ralph H. , Sochats Kenneth
Published: November 2008

Cattin [Cattin, P. Comment on designing scientific journals. Management Sci. 25 (3) 295–296.] makes an interesting point in that the unstandardized comparisons made in King, Kilmann and Sochats [King, W. R., Kilmann, R. H., Sochats, K. 1978. Designing scientific journals: issues and survey results. Management Sci. 24 (7, March) 774–784.] do not account for possible response bias or for the fact, as pointed out in the original paper, that the three respondent groups were asked somewhat different questions. We have performed the standardized data analysis that he suggests.
Communication—An Extension of Gitlow's Methodology for Designing Abortion Clinics
Authors: Kleijnen J. P. C.
Published: November 2008

Comments about Gitlow, H. S. 1976. A methodology for determining the optimal design of a free standing abortion clinic. Management Sci. 22 (12, August) 1289–1298.
Participation Rates in Government Transfer Programs: Application to Housing Allowances
Authors: Rydell C. Peter , Mulford John E. , Kozimor Lawrence W.
Published: November 2008

A general model of participation in a transfer program is developed and applied to data obtained from housing allowance programs in Brown County, Wisconsin and St. Joseph County, Indiana. Estimates of the parameters of the model are obtained from pooled data for the two sites, and the fitted model is used to estimate the equilibrium level of participation and the time required to reach it.

The model predicts that the participation rate three years after the housing allowance program's start-40 percent-will rise to a maximum of 51 percent when equilibrium is reached. The model also predicts that 95 percent of the equilibrium level will be reached 5.5 years after the program's start. Although below expectations, the 51 percent equilibrium participation rate is not low compared with other government transfer programs; it is about the same as New York City's welfare and food stamp programs, for example.

The model provides valuable insights into the dynamics of government transfer programs. In particular, it shows that the equilibrium participation rate equals the ratio of the rate at which eligible nonparticipants enroll in the program (enrollment rate) to the sum of the enrollment rate and the rate at which participants leave the program (termination rate). If the enrollment and termination rates are equal to each other, as they tend to be in the transfer programs studied, then in equilibrium at a given time only 50 percent of the eligible households will be program participants. The analysis suggests that the most practical way to increase participation is to increase the enrollment rate.
An Approach for Long Term Forecasting with an Application to Solar Electric Energy
Authors: Sarin Rakesh K.
Published: November 2008

An approach is proposed that is useful for long term forecasting of market penetration of new technologies, fuel price and availability, business performance, etc. The central idea is to systematically solicit experts' opinion in the form of subjective probability distributions in making future projections. The approach has two basic ingredients. One is the decomposition of the problem so that each expert is dealing with a relatively simple situation. The other is to use modeling so as to minimize the information required of the experts. The likelihood of occurrence of the relevant future scenarios is computed by eliciting from experts the single event and the conditional probabilities. The probability distributions for the variable of interest are assessed by specifying some scenarios. A model is used to predict the probability distributions for a general set of scenarios. A study using the approach to forecast solar electric energy market penetration by the year 2000 is discussed. In this study several experts from utility companies, governmental agencies, research laboratories, and universities were interviewed. The implications of our findings to long range planning for solar electric energy are discussed. The results of this study should be useful to the planners in the utility companies and the governmental agencies.
Optimizing Standby Reliability Systems Having Non-Decreasing Failure Rates
Authors: McLeavey Dennis W. , McLeavey Janet A.
Published: November 2008

In this article we develop a bounding procedure which is applied in an algorithm for determining the number of back-up components to include in a series system. Operating only when original units fail, back-up components increase system reliability. They also add weight, take up space, and cost money. Maximizing the reliability of nuclear power plants, ships, aircraft, life support systems and electronic instruments leads to this class of resource allocation problem. Because the procedure requires only that the rate of failure of individual components remains constant or increases with time, the algorithm can accommodate a wide variety of failure probability distributions. In applications, the failure probability for various types of components might belong to different families and this can be readily handled by the algorithm presented.
An Efficient Algorithm to Determine Stochastic Dominance Admissible Sets
Authors: Bawa Vijay S. , Lindenberg Eric B. , Rafsky Lawrence C.
Published: November 2008

Stochastic Dominance (SD) rules are playing an increasingly prominent role in the theory of choice under uncertainty. Its application areas include stock selection, capital budgeting, etc. The theory is important because it generates decision rules which are more generally applicable to these problems than are the traditional two parameter (mean-variance) rules employed in much of financial decision making. While they are theoretically sound, the SD rules are, until now, hard to implement because they require comparisons of probability distributions over their entire ranges. In this paper, we develop an algorithm that should remedy this situation. It exploits recent theoretical results from the Stochastic Dominance literature as well as several computational techniques to efficiently determine the SD admissible set of alternatives, which contains the optimal choices for all decision makers whose preferences satisfy reasonable economic criteria.

As compared with the fastest code currently available, an implementation of our algorithm significantly reduces the computational time required to solve a problem of considerable size. These results indicate that, as a management tool, this algorithm can be applied to choice problems not previously thought solvable. For example, in the portfolio choice problem, which has an infinite choice set, the algorithm can provide reasonable approximations to the true set of optimal choices via the use of a suitably fine enough grid on the space of portfolios.
A Case Study of Encoder Shift Scheduling under Uncertainty
Authors: Mabert Vincent A.
Published: November 2008

This paper illustrates a shift scheduling procedure for a commercial bank's encoder work force for check processing in the presence of daily work load uncertainty. The author presents a chance constraint model for determining the appropriate safety capacity, analogous to safety stock in inventory theory, to meet varying volume demands when forecast errors are present. A series of tests are conducted to evaluate the model's performance under different operating costs, forecast errors, and volume arrival rates, which are based on data collected at Chemical Bank. The results indicate this model provides low cost solutions.

This study provides two contributions to managers and management scientists. First, even though the paper illustrates the encoder work force shift scheduling decision, the methodology presented can be extended to other service oriented organizations. The main elements that need to be present are: varying between day work loads, varying within day work loads, uncertainty in estimating work loads, and critical deadlines at specific times during the day. And second, a classification scheme is developed which indicates how the general shift scheduling problem in service organizations can be viewed. This classification system helps to structure this complex problem and indicates how this proposed procedure contributes to this important area.
The Chinese Postman Problem for Mixed Networks
Authors: Minieka Edward
Published: November 2008

The Chinese postman problem is to find a least cost way to traverse each arc of a network at least once and to return to the vertex from which you started. Diverse problems such as the routing of road crews, police patrol scheduling, garbage collection and the programming of computer map printers can be modelled as Chinese postman problems.

This paper surveys available solution techniques for the Chinese postman problem for totally undirected networks (when all streets are two-way streets) and for totally directed networks (when all streets are one-way streets). A known solution technique for networks with both directed and undirected arcs (both one-way and two-way streets) in which the degree of each vertex is an even number is also reviewed.

A solution technique for these mixed networks in which some vertices have odd degree is presented. This technique is based on the before mentioned technique and requires the solution of a minimum cost flow problem on a network that is an extension of the original network. Some of the additional arcs in this network have gain factors (i.e., the flow leaving these arcs equals the flow entering times the gain factor) and the flows are required to be integer valued.
The Management System: Its Functions and Processes
Authors: Cunningham J. Barton
Published: November 2008

What is management? In recent years, a number of schools or approaches to management have evolved. What is rather upsetting to the manager is that there are a variety of unrelated approaches without any suggestion of their relationship to each other. Even more upsetting is that some of these approaches seem to be based on the disciplines of particular researchers rather than their ability to help managers. The study explores the rationale underlying two predominant orientations. One is concerned with the process of management, while the other emphasizes the function of management. The managerial process involves such intuitive principles as planning, organizing, and staffing. The managerial function involves arranging equipment to perform functions such as procurement, production, and adaptation. The goal is to illustrate the relationship of these approaches to each other and to specific managerial needs.

The study was conducted among top managers in six municipal organizations. The research utilized a questionnaire and decision-making simulation for gathering data on the relationship of each managerial orientation. The results indicate that each orientation deals with different areas of managerial action. Key managerial processes focus on integrating, making decisions, recording information, motivating, and negotiating. The managerial functions, in this study, are part of three subsystem efforts which are administrative, adaptive, and technical. When management is defined as a process, it has no relationship to functions; when it is defined as functions of specific subsystems, there is no positive relationship to the process.
Brand Choice Inertia as One Aspect of the Notion of Brand Loyalty
Authors: Jeuland Abel P.
Published: November 2008

A very parsimonious first-order multibrand model of the individual consumer for frequently purchased consumer goods is developed, generalizing the zero-order multinomial model. The model incorporates the notion of brand choice inertia, which is a form of short-term loyalty. Besides the equilibrium marginal choice probabilities of the multinomial model, a single additional parameter of choice inertia is defined. A maximum likelihood estimation procedure is derived and used on individual data from a subsample of the Secodip Consumer Panel, France: 2,401 purchases of cooking oil from eighty-nine of the consumers who were in the panel for the entire 1971–1972 period are used. Through the likelihood ratio test procedure, the model is shown to significantly improve on the multinomial model. An aggregate version of the model is also developed and estimated by a minimum chi-square procedure on four independent data sets. It is compared with the linear learning model which has been preferred over other probabilistic models of brand choice in most empirical studies in the past fifteen years. On the criterion of the p-level corresponding to the chi-square procedure, the model is superior for data set one, basically equivalent for data set two and its special case of the multinomial model being best for data sets three and four. The model operationalizes in a simple way the notion of carryover effect of marketing actions: a short-term perturbation from equilibrium—due to marketing mix actions, for example—has some residual effect on future purchase occasions. Moreover, in the context of new product modeling, the inertia model is in accord with the empirical observation by Parfitt and Collins of leveling-off of repeat-buying.
Weighted Assignment Models and Their Application
Authors: Ross G. Terry , Zoltners Andris A.
Published: November 2008

This paper defines the components and characteristics of an important class of models called weighted assignment models and identifies these elements in a number of existing and potential applications.

The weighted assignment model represents problems with the following characteristics: A set of tasks must be divided among a set of agents, and each task must be completed by only one agent. Tasks may be completed at one of several predetermined levels. When an agent completes a task at some level, a resource possessed by the agent is consumed and a system disutility is incurred. The weighted assignment model may be used to determine the best assignment of tasks to agents and the task completion levels so as to minimize total system disutility while satisfying the agent resource constraints.

In the first part of the paper, a general formulation is presented, and its relationship to assignment models, transportation models, knapsack models and various fixed charge models is established. In the second part of the paper, a number of applications are described which demonstrate the usefulness of weighted assignment models. These applications include machine loading problems, personnel assignment problems and districting problems. Computational results for several of the applications are presented to document the tractability of the models.
Using Optimal Policy Surfaces to Analyze Aggregate Inventory Tradeoffs
Authors: Gardner Everette S. , Dannenbring David G.
Published: November 2008

The marginal cost information needed to implement traditional inventory models is not likely to be available in practice. The most important inventory management issues in practive involve aggregate objectives and constraints while the richest theoretical models deal with single item management. To help resolve these problems, the authors propose that inventory decisions be conceived as policy tradeoffs on a three dimensional response surface showing the optimal relationships among aggregate customer service, workload, and investment. We show that any optimal management decision must result in a point located on the surface. Computational results show that the methodology suggested can make improvements in management policy in four inventories that total more than 78,000 line items.
On the Optimal Allocation of Work in Symmetrically Unbalanced Production Line Systems with Variable Operation Times
Authors: Hillier Frederick S. , Boling Ronald W.
Published: November 2008

This paper provides results related to the optimal design of unpaced production lines. It has been shown previously that unbalancing an unpaced production line in an appropriate way will increase its production rate. Results are presented here which show how the optimal allocation of work between stations changes with respect to — the number of work stations in the line, — the limit on the amount of work-in-progress, and — the variance of station operation times.

An analysis of results given here demonstrate the following system characteristics. When the number of stations in the production line increases, the average amount of unbalance in the optimal allocation remains about the same, but the increase in mean production rate obtained by using the optimal allocation rather than the balanced line becomes substantially larger. If the operation times are highly variable (exponential distribution), the effect of increasing in-process storage space is to substantially decrease the average amount of unbalance in the optimal allocation but to only slightly decrease the resulting improvement over the balanced line. If the amount of in-process storage space is very small, the effect of decreasing the variability of operation times is to decrease these same quantities but at a surprisingly slow rate. On the other hand, the effect of simultaneously increasing in-process storage space and decreasing the variability of operation times is to very rapidly decrease both the optimal unbalance and the resulting improvement.

The model used to characterize an unpaced production line system is the classical queueing system with finite queues in series.
Less Nervous MRP Systems: A Dynamic Economic Lot-Sizing Approach
Authors: Carlson Robert C. , Jucker James V. , Kropp Dean H.
Published: November 2008

The Wagner-Whitin dynamic economic lot-sizing technique has not been widely applied to real-world production scheduling problems. A frequently quoted reason is the extreme sensitivity of the solution to changes in the estimates of future values of the problem's parameters, especially future demand. This “nervousness” has been of great concern to users of MRP (Material Requirements Planning) systems. A solution procedure which incorporates the cost of changing the current production schedule alleviates this nervousness by considering its economic effect. Thus updated parameter forecasts can be effectively used, and the schedule will be changed only when the joint consideration of setup, inventory holding, and schedule change costs indicates that it is economically beneficial to do so.
The Power Approximation for Computing (s, S) Inventory Policies
Authors: Ehrhardt Richard
Published: November 2008

In this paper we present a new analytic approximation for computing (s, S) policies for single items under periodic review with a set-up cost, linear holding and shortage costs, fixed replenishment lead time, and backlogging of unfilled demand. The approximation formulae are derived by using existing results of asymptotic renewal theory to characterize the behavior of the optimal policy numbers as functions of the model parameters. These functions are then used to construct regressions with coefficients that are calibrated by using a grid of 288 known optimal policies as data. The resulting Power Approximation policies (formulae) are easy to compute and. require for demand information only the mean and variance of demand over lead time. Extensive computational results show that the approximations yield expected total costs that typically are well within one percent of optimal. The approximation's robustness is exemplified by analyzing its performance when statistical estimates are used in place of the actual mean and variance of demand.
Note—On “Location of Bank Accounts to Optimize Float: An Analytic Study of Exact and Approximate Algorithms”
Authors: Cornuejols Gerard , Fisher Marshall L. , Nemhauser George L.
Published: November 2008

In the course of the deliberations of the 1977 Lanchester Prize Committee, Alan J. Goldman brought to our attention an error in the proof of Lemma 1 of our paper (Cornuejols, G., M. L. Fisher, G. L. Nemhauser. 1977. Location of bank accounts to optimize float: an analytic study of exact and approximate algorithms. Management Sci. 23 789–810.). The lemma, however, is true and the original correct, but long and intricate, proof was provided to the Committee, see (Cornuejols, G., M. L. Fisher, G. L. Nemhauser. 1977. On the uncapacitated location problem. Ann. Discrete Math. 1 163–178.) for details.
On the Decentralized Capital Budgeting Problem under Uncertainty
Authors: Obel Börge , Vander Weide James
Published: November 2008

This paper deals with decentralized capital budgeting problems when decision objectives are not necessarily identical with those of corporate headquarters.

This paper extends previous analysis of this problem to the case where (i) the cash flows resulting from managerial actions are uncertain, (ii) division managers have nonlinear utility functions which differ from those of top management with respect to risk aversion and (iii) resource constraints may be nonlinear. Several realistic considerations arise in this context which were absent in previous analyses. First, because the division managers' utility functions reflect differing attitudes toward risk, top management has the opportunity to share some business risk with the division managers. We recommend a transfer pricing scheme that accounts for this possibility. Second, if the transfer prices for capital resources are state-dependent and the division managers make their investment decisions before the state of nature is revealed, the division managers will want to hedge against the additional uncertainty caused by this aspect of the problem. Despite the static nature of the analysis this paper raises the interesting problem of information flow within the firm and suggests ways to motivate division managers to act in the best interest of the firm. The transfer pricing algorithm has additional interesting applications.
A Multiple Objective Approach to Space Planning for Academic Facilities
Authors: Ritzman Larry , Bradford John , Jacobs Robert
Published: November 2008

This paper addresses the office layout problem where existing offices vary considerably as to relevant criteria and yet permanent walls make it impractical to remodel existing spaces. The major objective of this study was the equitable reassignment of 144 offices to 289 faculty and staff members in 6 academic departments with the College of Administrative Science at The Ohio State University. Since the building contains 5 floors and a wide diversity of office quality, six conflicting objectives have been recognized.

In order to adequate address these multiple objectives, a large mixed-integer goal programming model was formulated. A companion interactive computer program was also developed to evaluate the performance of each solution with respect to these objectives. The goal programming model served to evaluate several layout strategies and identify the tradeoffs implicit in the problem. The interactive computer program helped translate these insights into a final compromise solution.

There are two interesting findings of the study. The first one is desirability of allowing the decision makers to be in command of the solution process. This may be particularly important when several decision makers must compete for the same resources. Another finding is that a linear programming code is sufficient for this particular formulation of a mixed-integer model. Although the model contains over 1,700 integer variables, a very few non-integer values were generated. This avoided the computational burden of a mixed-integer code.

The model presented here has its generic roots in the so-called “assignment problems,” with the added feature of recognizing multiple objectives. It is felt that with the proper modifications, the ideas presented here may well be extended to location-distribution and other types of assignment problems.

These models have been applied to the layout of the College, with the final implementation having occurred during the Summer Quarter, 1978.
Note—Post-Infeasibility Analysis in Linear Programming
Authors: Roodman Gary M.
Published: November 2008

When a linear programming problem is found to have no feasible solution, the model-builder generally has no tools for systematically determining why the infeasibility exists and what might be done to eliminate it. The assumption is made, at least implicitly, that if the model has no feasible solution, it is wrong to some fundamental way and must be corrected before it can be of use to the model-builder. In fact, the model may be quite correct as it stands, in the sense that it captures exactly what the model-builder meant for it to capture. When this is the case, discovering the absence of a feasible solution can be useful to the model-builder, and correspondingly, tools for exploring the nature of the infeasiblity can be quite valuable. The purpose of this paper is to develop a set of methods for doing post-infeasibility analysis on linear programming problems. The methods are designed to identify constraints that might be “relaxed” to attain feasibility and estimate the magnitudes of the required changes.
Note—Analysis of Time Series with Calendar Effects
Authors: Liu Lon-Mu
Published: November 2008

Most national economic data and many marketing series are compiled monthly according to the Gregorian Calendar, but some of the ancient festivals or holidays, such as Easter, Jewish Passover, and Chinese New Year, are set by lunar calendar. Therefore the date of a holiday may vary between two adjacent months from year to year. Some product marketing and consumer behavior patterns are closely related to such holidays; the amount of monthly sales may change as the date of the holiday changes from one month to the other. This paper shows how calendar intervention influences the sample autocorrelation, both by a theoretical study and an actual example. Model estimation for a time series subject to calendar intervention is also discussed.
Technological Forecasting—An Overview
Authors: Martino Joseph P.
Published: November 2008

Within the past decade, the set of techniques used by technological forecasters has expanded considerably. While the old standbys such as trend extrapolation are still in wide use, some new techniques are also beginning to see wide use. In addition, there are some new techniques which have considerable promise, but which have not yet seen wide use. Finally, there are some techniques which have not yet fulfilled their original promise. Examples of each of these categories are discussed in the paper.
Note—A Comment on “Modeling the Marketing Mix Decision for Industrial Products”
Authors: Farris Paul W. , Buzzell Robert D.
Published: November 2008

A recent article by Lilien (Lilien, Gary L. 1979. ADVISOR 2: Modeling the marketing mix decision for industrial products. Management Sci. 25 (February) 191–204.) reports the principal findings of the ADVISOR 2 project, in which regression models are used to explain levels of advertising and marketing expenditures by industrial product manufacturers. Lilien compares ADVISOR results with some analyses of PIMS data which we reported in 1976 (Buzzell, Robert D., Paul W. Farris. 1977. Marketing costs in consumer goods industries. Hans Thorelli, ed. Strategy + Structure = Performance. Indiana University Press, 122–145.), and states that “… the results of the Buzzell-Farris study on the PIMS data and the results of ADVISOR are quite consistent.” We cannot agree with this conclusion. We believe there are important inconsistencies between the two studies, which should be considered by anyone who might use the ADVISOR model—or the PIMS-based models—to evaluate actual marketing budgets.
Problems in Predicting New Product Growth for Consumer Durables
Authors: Heeler Roger M. , Hustad Thomas P.
Published: November 2008

A popular model of new product diffusion is applied in an international setting. Several limitations on its use are noted: instability with limited data, environmental differences, and systematic under reporting of estimated time to attain peak level of first purchase sales.
Managerial Response to Technological Innovation in Public Sector Organizations
Authors: Feller Irwin
Published: November 2008

Technological innovation is widely seen as a means for raising productivity levels in state and local government. Growing evidence indicates that (1) senior level bureaucrats have primary responsibility for decisions concerning the adoption of innovations, and (2) innovations adopted by state and local governments are of two types—cost-reducing and service-augmenting. A formal explanation is advanced for the apparent preference of bureaucrats for service-augmenting innovations. Service-augmenting innovations tend to increase agency budgets to which bureaucratic emoluments are positively correlated, to expand the clientele served by an agency, and to obscure agency production costs by simultaneously altering both the input mixes and the services being provided.

Federal policies designed to foster a more rapid diffusion of technological innovations are, in part, based upon the expectation that technological innovations will lessen the budgetary pressures upon state and local governments. The analysis presented here suggests that there may be countervailing pressures within the adoption processes of state and local governments which weaken the implied relationship between technological change and productivity improvement.
A Mixed-Integer Programming Approach to Air Cargo Fleet Planning
Authors: Marsten Roy E. , Muller Michael R.
Published: November 2008

This paper deals with the mathematical programming aspects of a long range planning study done for the Flying Tiger Line, an all-cargo airline. The study addressed two strategic problems: the design of the service network and the selection and deployment of the aircraft fleet. We show how the concept of a spider graph provides a natural building block for network design and present a mixed-integer programming model that enables the planner to evaluate any network constructed from spider graphs by determining the most profitable selection of aircraft and routing of cargo.
Performance-Based Incentive Plans
Authors: Sarin Rakesh K. , Winkler Robert L.
Published: November 2008

Incentive plans are an integral part of management control since incentives as measures of recognition of performance are significant motivating factors for corporate executives. In this paper we describe how such incentive plans can be devised. We employ multiattribute preference theory in the design of incentive plans. The basic idea is to state empirically verifiable conditions on the decision maker's preferences that imply some particular form of the incentive function. First, we show how an incentive plan can be devised when incentive compensation to managers is based on their actual performance on some predetermined criteria. Next, we consider goal-based plans that encourage managers to set accurate goals and motivate them to strive for a better performance subsequent to goal setting. Finally, we extend the goal-based plans to include situations in which the goals are reported probabilistically. Several suggestions for further research are also provided.
A New Specification of the Multichain Policy Iteration Algorithm in Undiscounted Markov Renewal Programs
Authors: Federgruen A. , Spreen D.
Published: November 2008

We consider the Policy Iteration Algorithm for undiscounted Markov Renewal Programs. Previous specifications of the policy evaluation part of this algorithm all required the analysis of the chain structure for each policy generated. The purpose of this paper is to provide a unique specification of the value vectors as well as an anticycling rule which avoids parsing the transition probability matrices into their subchains.
On Comparison of Cash Flow Streams
Authors: Landau H. J.
Published: November 2008

In problems where planning over time plays a role, natural objects for consideration are cash flow streams. In order to compare different policies we require some preference ordering over these streams. A customary approach to this problem is to assume that money can be borrowed and lent freely at some fixed interest rate—i.e., that there exists a perfect capital market—and to compare streams with respect to such borrowing and lending. The induced ordering is based on the size of a single quantity, termed the discounted value, obtainable from the stream by a linear calculation.

In this note we consider preference rankings of cash streams in imperfect capital markets; in particular, we suppose that the interest rate may depend on the size of the loan. We introduce an ordering based, as before, on the ability to convert one stream into another by borrowing and lending, and we describe its structural features: salient here is the fact that there generally exist incomparable streams. We then specialize to the case that the interest rate is constant but different for borrowing and lending, and repayment is either short-term or long-term. There we show that, when one stream is preferred to another, it has a larger discounted value with respect to each interest rate in the range between the borrowing and lending rates. The present model therefore provides a simple example of a situation in which discounting a stream over a variety of interest rates enters naturally into the preference ranking.
Note—Sensitivity Analysis in Leontief Substitution Systems
Authors: Koehler Gary J. , Whinston Andrew B.
Published: November 2008

In this note we investigate extremal optimization over Leontief substitution systems. Such problems arise naturally in discounted Markov decision problems and in problems involving the control of economic systems. We develop both bounds on the objective value of a Leontief substitution system subject to perturbations and an algorithm for finding and improving perturbations.
Erratum to “The Adoption Time Period for Some Transportation Innovations”
Authors: Ettlie John E.
Published: November 2008

Erratum to the author's paper “The Adoption Time Period for Some Transportation Innovations,” Management Sci., Vol. 25, No. 5 (1979), pp. 429–443.
State of the Art—Auctions and Bidding Models: A Survey
Authors: Engelbrecht-Wiggans Richard
Published: November 2008

Auctions and bidding models are attracting an ever increasing amount of attention. The Stark and Rothkopf (Stark, R. M., M. H. Rothkopf. 1979. Competitive bidding: a comprehensive bibliography. Oper. Res. 27 (2) 364–390.) bibliography includes approximately 500 works in the area. Additional work has appeared since the bibliography was compiled.

This paper surveys the main theoretical results and research efforts of the literature on auctions and bidding. A framework is presented for classifying and describing various auctions and bidding models based on the types of assumptions made for the models' various parameters. The major works, ideas, and results of the literature are surveyed in terms of this framework.
A Stochastic Constrained Optimization Model for Determining Commercial Fishing Seasons
Authors: Gaither Norman
Published: November 2008

Fisheries management must set fishing seasons that define either length of season, amount of seasonal catch, or both. These seasons are traditionally set with one overriding concern—protect the bio-mass of the fishery. In this paper, a stochastic constrained optimization model is developed for a multi-species fishery that sets the seasonal catch by species, by geographical area, and by month of the season. The model maximizes vessel fleet contribution over a one year planning horizon within certain biological, environmental, market, and production capacity constraints.

The model explicitly treats such sources of uncertainty as catch per species, catch per unit of effort, weather, and markets by a computer simulation procedure. This method allows random variation of any parameter of the mathematical programming problem. The procedure selects a single set of parameter values for the problem, executes the mathematical programming algorithm, and stores that cycle's results. These steps are repeated until the desired number of cycles have been completed. A statistical summary of the objective function values, decision variable values, and slack variable values completes the procedure.

The model demonstrated an 11% improvement for the 1976–1977 Alaskan crab fleet's contribution over commercial fishing seasons set by traditional means. The model continues to be updated and evaluated annually. The model of this study should be of interest to managers of organizations whose products are renewable natural resources or other organizations who must set production schedules within resource and market constraints in environments characterized by many parameters subject to random variation.
First-Offer Bargains
Authors: Samuelson William
Published: November 2008

In the well-known model of bilateral monopoly a single seller of a good faces a single potential buyer. Frequently, each party will be uncertain about the other's reservation price. Thus, in making a price offer each faces a trade-off between his individual gains (if a bargain is successful) and the probability that a mutually acceptable bargain is concluded. This paper focuses on the implications of a bargaining rule that calls for one party to make the first and final offer, the other to accept or reject it. As one would expect, the buyer offer strategy involves “shading”. (quoting of an offer below his true reservation price for the good) while the seller employs a “markup” offer strategy. The offer strategy of each party is nondecreasing in the individual's reservation price. Furthermore, a uniformly more optimistic assessment of the opponent's reservation price (in the special sense of stochastic dominance) induces a less truthful offer from the individual. While the relative efficiency of the buyer and seller first-offer procedures must be examined on a case-by-case basis, it can be shown that the opportunity to make the first and final offer always confers a distinct bargaining advantage.
Scheduling Jobs on Two Facilities to Minimize Makespan
Authors: Bulfin R. L. , Parker R. G.
Published: November 2008

This paper is concerned with the problem of scheduling tasks on a system consisting of two parallel processors in order that makespan be minimized. In particular, we treat a variety of modifications to this basic theme, including the cases of identical, proportional, and unrelated processors. In addition, a heuristic scheme is suggested when precedence constraints exist where such constraints may be assignment dependent. Substantial computational experience is reported in all cases where it would appear that relatively large problems can be handled routinely.
A Competitive Scenario Modeling System
Authors: Dutta Biplab K. , King William R.
Published: November 2008

A competitive decision support system that has been utilized in a pilot version in a corporate application is described and evaluated. The system is based on the combining of meta-game analysis with a number of mathematical market models. The system facilitates the testing of proposed competitive scenarios for stability and permits the consequences of scenarios to be predicted in the market share, profit and other terms that are familiar to manager users. Although the formal evaluation of the system is not clearly positive, both the system and the evaluation procedure appear to have substantial potential.
Implicit Intransitivity Under Majority Rule with Mixed Motions
Authors: Flood Merrill M.
Published: November 2008

When several persons organized as a group are to choose one from among several specified alternatives they may make use of majority voting or some other decision-making process. This paper considers the case in which the decision process includes among the alternatives some that are probability mixtures of others. Examples are presented to illustrate the way in which a situation that is transitive under majority voting rule becomes intransitive when mixtures of the same alternatives are permitted. If utility product maximization is used to determine the group choice, as an agreed upon arbitration process when utilities are assigned to the alternatives by each group member but without interpersonal comparability, some examples are presented to illustrate the results of this method. It is reasoned that some such method is often clearly preferable to majority voting in order both to allot more appropriate influence to minorities and to accommodate for differences in importance of alternatives beyond those represented by individual rank orderings.

The utility product maximization section includes several numerical examples to illustrate relationships between the findings of this paper and familiar work in game theory by Nash, and by Luce and Raiffa, where this approach has been suggested as a possible method for “arbitration.” Other numerical examples utilize inequalities to illustrate intransitivity effects like those discussed previously by Zeckhauser and Shepsle, and also in the context of Arrow's celebrated Impossibility Theorem.
Erratum to “Planning Horizon Procedures for Machine Replacement Models”
Authors: Sethi Suresh P. , Chand Suresh
Published: November 2008

The following typographical errors appeared in our paper “Planning Horizon Procedures for Machine Replacement Models,” Management Science, Vol. 25, No. 2 (February 1979), pp. 140–151.
Erratum to “Optimal Pilfering Policies for Dynamic Continuous Thieves”
Authors: Sethi Suresh P.
Published: November 2008

The following typographical errors appeared in my paper “Optimal Pilfering Policies for Dynamic Continuous Thieves,” Management Sci., Vol. 25, No. 6 (1979), pp. 535–542.
Response to Communication on Rand-HUD Fire Models
Authors: Chaiken Jan , Ignall Edward , Kolesar Peter , Walker Warren
Published: November 2008

The Communication from Rodrick and Deborah Wallace repeats allegations that they have made in print [Wallace, D. 1977. New York city fire crisis, part one, the system is falling apart. Heights and Valley News (May) 10–11; Wallace, R., D. Wallace. 1977. Studies on the Collapse of Fire Service in New York City 1972–1976: The Impact of Pseudoscience in Public Policy (pamphlet), Univ. Press of America, Washington, D.C.] and in various forums for more than three years. Their critique is not of Chaiken's paper, “Transfer of Emergency Service Deployment Models to Operating Agencies,” (Chaiken, J. 1978. Transfer of emergency service deployment models to operating agencies. Management Sci. 24 (7) 719–731.) but rather they use the appearance of that paper as an occasion to comment again on the application of Rand's fire deployment models in New York City during the period from 1972 to 1976. Readers of Chaiken's paper who are not familiar with this history are likely to wonder how his paper, which barely mentions New York City, inspired the Wallaces' comments in this Communication.
Committee on Scientific Freedom and Responsibility
Authors:   American Association for the Advancement of Science
Published: November 2008

The Committee on Scientific Freedom and Responsibility of the American Association for the Advancement of Science announces the availability of its 1979 annual report describing current projects and interests of the Committee.
Reply to Robinson
Authors: Leff Nathaniel H.
Published: November 2008

Reply to the letter from Stephen L. Robinson (Robinson, S. L. 1980. Car pool systems. Management Sci. 26 (4) 433–434.).
The Diffusion of an Administrative Innovation
Authors: Teece David J.
Published: November 2008

This paper examines the diffusion of a particular kind of multidivisional administrative structure—the “M-Form”—in two classes of large industrial firms. The M-Form organization is a multidivisional structure with quasi-independent divisions which are assigned profit center standing and which are monitored and guided by a headquarters organization. A simple deterministic model commonly employed to represent the diffusion of technological innovations is utilized to explain the diffusion of the M-Form structure. The commendable performance of the model suggests that additional insights from the study of technological innovation can be applied with advantage to the study of administrative innovation.
Estimation of a Longitudinal Model to Decompose the Effects of an Advertising Stimulus on Family Consumption
Authors: Winer Russell S.
Published: November 2008

A model which separates the various effects of an advertising experiment on a family's consumption behavior is estimated using consumer panel data. It is determined that there were significant transitory or short-run effects of the advertising, while permanent influences and price-advertising interactions were negligible. Implications of both the empirical results for management and the modeling approach for market researchers are discussed.
Exceptional Paper—A Theory of the U.S. Treasury Market Equilibrium
Authors: Barry John Y. , Ayres Herbert F.
Published: November 2008

Above maturities of six months to a year, the equilibrium yield to maturity for government securities consists of two statistically independent components. The first, the so-called “consol yield,” is the same for every maturity. The change in the consol yield has the same impact on yield for every maturity and the mere knowledge of its sign dominates opportunities for trading profits. However the expected change in the consol yield and all other yields is zero.

The absolute value of the second component, “spread,” declines exponentially as maturity lengthens, despite variations in both its sign and magnitude. Examination of 20 years of evidence suggests that any departures of actual yields from the exponential model are only temporary.

The authors argue that their model satisfies the “no free lunch” property of efficient securities markets: There is no strategy that will increase expected total return in the absence of forecasting skill. They also argue that their model is consistent with the trading behavior of professional bond managers, who judge the yield on a bond by making “butterfly comparisons” with yields on bonds of greater and lesser maturity, disregarding investment horizon.

Finally, they present the full stochastic model of the equilibrium yields, and test it economically and statistically. It is in conflict with many “modern” financial theories, but it provides a description of what must be done to beat a buy and hold strategy without which no paper on any market is complete.
An Information Processing Model of Organizational Perception, Strategy and Choice
Authors: Tuggle Francis D. , Gerwin Donald
Published: November 2008

The strategic decision making process is conceptualized to occur in seven phases. A computer simulation model based on these steps has been developed which integrates the processes of organizational perception of key environmental factors, strategy formulation by the organization, and execution of routine operating decisions and standard operating procedures. Fifty computer runs of the model show the necessity of qualifying more narrowly three simplistic, but “intuitively obvious,” hypotheses: (1) A firm will do better in a more munificent environment than a less munificent one. (2) A firm more sensitive to changes in its environment will do better than a less sensitive firm. (3) The more uncertainty there is in a firm's environment, the worse that firm will perform. The role of computer simulation models of organizational strategy-making in training top managers and strategic planners is sketched.