bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Predictive Regressions: A Reduced-Bias Estimation Method
Authors: Amihud Yakov , Hurvich Clifford M.
Published: April 2009

Standard predictive regressions produce biased coefficient estimates in small samples when the regressors are Gaussian first-order autoregressive with errors that are correlated with the error series of the dependent variable. See Stambaugh (1999) for the single regressor model. This paper proposes a direct and convenient method to obtain reduced-bias estimators for single and multiple regressor models by employing an augmented regression, adding a proxy for the errors in the autoregressive model. We derive bias expressions for both the ordinary least-squares and our reduced-bias estimated coefficients. For the standard errors of the estimated predictive coefficients, we develop a heuristic estimator that performs well in simulations, for both the single predictor model and an important specification of the multiple predictor model. The effectiveness of our method is demonstrated by simulations and empirical estimates of common predictive models in finance. Our empirical results show that some of the predictive variables that were significant under ordinary least squares become insignificant under our estimation procedure.
Initial Public Offerings of State-Owned Enterprises: An International Study of Policy Risk
Authors: Lam Swee-Sum , Tan Ruth Seow-Kuan , Wee Glenn Tsao-Min
Published: April 2009

Policy risk, rather than information asymmetry, explains the cross-sectional underpricing of privatized initial public offerings. The issuer governments of high policy risk issues tend to retain a large equity stake and underprice more with underpricing increasing in retained equity. While the issuer government's retained equity is an observable signal for policy risk, we find that the quality of a country's bureaucratic machinery is a more intuitive and practical measure of policy risk. Policy risk also explains the absence of a systematic relation between the initial returns on privatized and private initial public offerings.
Multivariate Tests for Stochastic Dominance Efficiency of a Given Portfolio
Authors: Post Thierry , Versijp Philippe
Published: April 2009

We develop empirical tests for stochastic dominance efficiency of a given investment portfolio relative to all possible portfolios formed from a given set of assets. Our tests use multivariate statistics, which result in superior statistical power properties compared to existing stochastic dominance efficiency tests and increase the comparability with existing mean-variance efficiency tests. Using our tests, we demonstrate that the mean-variance inefficiency of the CRSP all-share index relative to beta-sorted portfolios can be explained by tail risk not captured by variance.
Bayesian Analysis of Linear Factor Models with Latent Factors, Multivariate Stochastic Volatility, and APT Pricing Restrictions
Authors: Nardari Federico , Scruggs John T.
Published: April 2009

We analyze a new class of linear factor models in which the factors are latent and the covariance matrix of excess returns follows a multivariate stochastic volatility process. We evaluate cross-sectional restrictions suggested by the arbitrage pricing theory (APT), compare competing stochastic volatility specifications for the covariance matrix, and test for the number of factors. We also examine whether return predictability can be attributed to time-varying factor risk premia. Analysis of these models is feasible due to recent advances in Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We find that three latent factors with multivariate stochastic volatility best explain excess returns for a sample of 10 size decile portfolios. The data strongly favor models constrained by APT pricing restrictions over otherwise identical unconstrained models.
Analysts' Conflicts of Interest and Biases in Earnings Forecasts
Authors: Chan Louis K. C. , Karceski Jason , Lakonishok Josef
Published: April 2009

Analysts' earnings forecasts are influenced by their desire to win investment banking clients. We hypothesize that the equity bull market of the 1990s, along with the boom in investment banking business, exacerbated analysts' conflicts of interest and their incentives to strategically adjust forecasts to avoid earnings disappointments. We document shifts in the distribution of earnings surprises and related changes in the market's response to surprises and forecast revisions. The evidence for shifts is stronger for growth stocks, where conflicts of interest are more pronounced. However, shifts are less notable for analysts without ties to investment banking and in international markets.
Characterizing World Market Integration through Time
Authors: Carrieri Francesca , Errunza Vihang , Hogan Ked
Published: April 2009

International asset pricing models suggest that barriers to portfolio flows and availability of market substitutes affect the degree and time variation of world market integration. We use GARCH-in-mean methodology to assess the evolution in market integration for eight emerging markets over the period 1977–2000. Our results suggest that while local risk is still a relevant factor in explaining time variation of emerging market returns, none of the countries appear to be completely segmented. We find that there are substantial crossmarket differences in the degree of integration. The evolution toward more integrated financial markets is apparent although at times we do observe reversals. In addition, we provide clear evidence on the impropriety of directly using correlations of market-wide index returns as a measure of market integration. Finally, financial market development and financial liberalization policies play important roles in integrating emerging markets.
Investment and Competition
Authors: Akdoğu Evrim , MacKay Peter
Published: April 2009

This paper examines how industry structure affects corporate investment patterns. Real options theory shows that deferring irreversible investment in the face of uncertainty is valuable. Theory also shows that the value of waiting to invest falls if investment opportunities are contestable. Consistent with these theories, we find that firms in monopolistic industries exhibit lower investment-q; sensitivity and are slower to invest than firms in competitive industries. However, we find that investment-q; sensitivity and investment speed are highest in oligopolistic industries, suggesting that the value of investing strategically can outweigh the value of waiting. Indeed, oligopolistic industries experience less entry and more exit than other industries.
Asset Pricing Models with Conditional Betas and Alphas: The Effects of Data Snooping and Spurious Regression
Authors: Ferson Wayne E. , Sarkissian Sergei , Simin Timothy
Published: April 2009

This paper studies the estimation of asset pricing model regressions with conditional alphas and betas, focusing on the joint effects of data snooping and spurious regression. We find that the regressions are reasonably well specified for conditional betas, even in settings where simple predictive regressions are severely biased. However, there are biases in estimates of the conditional alphas. When time-varying alphas are suppressed and only time-varying betas are considered, the betas become biased. Previous studies overstate the significance of time-varying alphas.
Corporate Governance, Shareholder Rights, and Shareholder Rights Plans: Poison, Placebo, or Prescription?
Authors: Caton Gary L. , Goh Jeremy
Published: April 2009

We examine the effect of poison pill adoptions on firm value, controlling for the adopting firm's preexisting corporate governance structure. We find that only companies with the most democratic governance structures, defined as those with the fewest preexisting protective governance provisions, experience significantly positive abnormal stock returns and significantly positive abnormal revisions in five-year earnings growth rate forecasts. Moreover, regression results indicate that abnormal returns and forecast revisions are significantly related to governance structure and not to board composition or subsequent merger activity.
Debt Capacity, Cost of Debt, and Corporate Insurance
Authors: Zou Hong , Adams Mike B.
Published: April 2009

Using a unique insurance dataset for a sample of Chinese publicly listed companies for the period 1997 through 2003, this study tests the simultaneous linkages between debt capacity, cost of debt, and corporate property insurance. Our results suggest that, on the one hand, a higher cost of debt appears to motivate the use of more property insurance, but high leverage alone does not lead to the purchase of more property insurance. The latter finding might reflect the unique institutional setting of China, for example, where there is a low chanceof legally enforced company liquidation. Also, there is evidence that leverage can interact with tangible assets intensity and exert a positive conjoint effect on the corporate purchase ofproperty insurance. On the other hand, we find evidence that supports that property insurance helps expand insuring firms' debt capacity and helps lower their borrowing costs. However, themoderate evidence on the cost reduction effect suggests that lowering the borrowing cost is likely to be a concern secondary to facilitating corporate borrowing and thereby expanding debt capacity in corporate property insurance decisions in China. Overall, we conclude that debt capacity, cost of debt, and corporate insurance appear to be simultaneously related.
Second-Order Stochastic Dominance, Reward-Risk Portfolio Selection, and the CAPM
Authors: De Giorgi Enrico , Post Thierry
Published: April 2009

Starting from the reward-risk model for portfolio selection introduced in De Giorgi (2005), we derive the reward-risk Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) analogously to the classical mean-variance CAPM. In contrast to the mean-variance model, reward-risk portfolio selection arises from an axiomatic definition of reward and risk measures based on a few basic principles, including consistency with second-order stochastic dominance. With complete markets, we show that at any financial market equilibrium, reward-risk investors' optimal allocations are comonotonic and, therefore, our model reduces to a representative investor model. Moreover, the pricing kernel is an explicitly given, non-increasing function of the market portfolio return, reflecting the representative investor's risk attitude. Finally, an empirical application shows that the reward-risk CAPM captures the cross section of U.S. stock returns better than the mean-variance CAPM does.
Common Factors and Local Factors: Implications for Term Structures and Exchange Rates
Authors: Ahn Dong-Hyun
Published: April 2009

This paper studies a multi-factor, two-country term structure and exchange rate model when a diversification effect for an international bond portfolio is expected. It shows that the diversification gain calls upon certain restrictions on the process of the stochastic discount factor in a factor-structured economy. Existence of local factors is shown to be a necessary condition for the gains from investing in foreign bonds. Further, the exchange rate risk premia are shown to be a function of the differentials of the risk premia of the factors in bond returns. Empirical results reveal the tendency for investors to respond sensitively to rare shocks, which is shown to be a potential solution to the forward premium puzzle.
Changing Risk, Return, and Leverage: The 1997 Asian Financial Crisis
Authors: Maroney Neal , Naka Atsuyuki , Wansi Theresia
Published: April 2009

This paper explores risk and return relations in six Asian equity markets affected by the 1997 Asian financial crisis. After the start of the crisis, national equity betas increased and average returns fell substantially. Beta increases due to leverage linked to exchange rates. The increase in expected return needed to accompany this rise in beta is made possible through the creation of capital losses that lower average returns. We propose a new probability-based asset pricing model that captures leverage effects using valuation ratios. Results show the role of leverage in explaining the likelihood of the financial crises. Crosssectional evidence supports time-series findings.
Economic Sources of Gain in Stock Repurchases
Authors: Chan Konan , Ikenberry David , Lee Inmoo
Published: April 2009

Previous studies offer a mixed understanding of the economic role of stock repurchases. This paper investigates three key economic motivations—mispricing, disgorging free cash flow, and increasing leverage—by evaluating cross-sectional differences in both the initial market reaction and long-run performance. The initial reaction provides some support for the mispricing story. However, subsequent earnings-related information shocks suggest that the initial market reaction is incomplete and that long-run performance may be informative. The long-horizon return evidence is most consistent with the mispricing hypothesis and, to some degree, the free cash flow hypothesis. We find little support for the leverage hypothesis.
Optimum Centralized Portfolio Construction with Decentralized Portfolio Management
Authors: Elton Edwin J. , Gruber Martin J.
Published: April 2009

Many financial institutions employ outside portfolio managers to manage part or all of their investable assets. It is well recognized that outside portfolio managers are unwilling to share security information with each other or with the centralized decision maker and this in general will lead to sub-optimal portfolios. In this paper, we derive an implementable set of rules under which a central decision maker can make optimal decisions without requiring decentralized decision makers to reveal estimates of security returns. Furthermore, we derive conditions under which these rules hold and when they do not hold.
Negotiation and the IPO Offer Price: A Comparison of Integer vs. Non-Integer IPOs
Authors: Bradley Daniel J. , Cooney John W. , Jordan Bradford D. , Singh Ajai K.
Published: April 2009

We investigate the pricing of 4,989 equity IPOs with offer dates between 1981 and 2000. Approximately three-fourths of these IPOs have integer offer prices. Average initial returns for IPOs with integer offer prices are significantly higher (24.5%) than those priced on the fraction of the dollar (8.1%). This result is robust through time and after conditioning for other effects known to influence initial returns. We hypothesize that integer vs. fractional dollar IPOs are the result of negotiations between the issuing firm and underwriter. Under this negotiation hypothesis, the frequency of integer pricing should be an increasing function of the offer price and the degree of uncertainty surrounding the value of the firm. Empirical evidence, supportive of the negotiation hypothesis, is presented.
Do Indirect Investment Barriers Contribute to Capital Market Segmentation?
Authors: Nishiotis George P.
Published: April 2009

Using a sample of emerging market closed-end funds, I find evidence that indirect investment barriers exert powerful effects on asset pricing differences across countries. I show that not only do indirect investment barriers contribute to international capital market segmentation, but also they can lead to segmentation even in the absence of strong capital inflow restrictions. This result is consistent with Bekaert and Harvey's (1995) conclusion that “other markets appear segmented even though foreigners have relatively free access to their capital markets” (p. 403). The empirical results of this paper provide a rational market segmentation explanation of both premiums and discounts in emerging market closed-end funds, and they are consistent with the deterrent effect of indirect barriers on equity flows to emerging markets found in the capital flow literature.
The Dynamics of Credit Spreads and Ratings Migrations
Authors: Farnsworth Heber , Li Tao
Published: April 2009

There is a large and growing literature on how to model the dynamics of the default-free term structure to fit the observed historical data. Much less is known about how best to model the dynamics of defaultable yield curves. This paper develops a class of defaultable term structure models that is tractable enough to be empirically implemented and flexible enough to capture some important behaviors of the credit spreads in the data. We compare two non-nested models within this class using a Bayesian estimation technique, which helps to solve the problem of latent state variables. The Bayesian approach also enables us to test the two non-nested models on the basis of the Bayes factor. The results strongly suggest that models with constant transition probabilities will not be able to fit the observed dynamics of inter-rating spreads.
Mutual Fund Attributes and Investor Behavior
Authors: Bollen Nicolas P. B.
Published: April 2009

I study the dynamics of investor cash flows in socially responsible mutual funds. Consistent with anecdotal evidence of loyalty, the monthly volatility of investor cash flows is lower in socially responsible funds than in conventional funds. I find strong evidence that cash flows into socially responsible funds are more sensitive to lagged positive returns than cash flows into conventional funds, and weaker evidence that cash outflows from socially responsible funds are less sensitive to lagged negative returns. These results indicate that investors derive utility from the socially responsible attribute, especially when returns are positive.
Board Composition and Corrective Action: Evidence from Corporate Responses to Bad Acquisition Bids
Authors: Paul Donna L.
Published: April 2009

This study investigates the role of corporate boards following large declines in share value surrounding acquisition announcements. The results indicate that firms with independent boards are less likely to complete these value-decreasing bids, suggesting that boards influence corporate responses to information in stock prices. Board independence is also associated with unusually high frequencies of asset restructuring for bids that are completed, suggesting that independent boards promote restructuring in mergers the market believes are difficult to integrate. These results complement existing evidence on the board's exante role in averting bad outcomes by showing that independent boards intervene following value-decreasing events.
Liquidity, Investment Style, and the Relation between Fund Size and Fund Performance
Authors: Yan Xuemin (Sterling)
Published: April 2009

Using stock transactions data along with detailed stockholdings for a comprehensive sample of U.S. actively managed equity mutual funds from 1993 to 2002, this paper empirically examines the effect of liquidity and investment style on the relation between fund size and fund performance. Consistent with Chen, Hong, Huang, and Kubik (2004), I find a significant inverse relation between fund size and fund performance. Further, this inverse relation is stronger among funds that hold less liquid portfolios. The inverse relation between fund size and fund performance is also more pronounced among growth and high turnover funds that tend to have high demands for immediacy. Overall, this paper's findings suggest that liquidity is an important reason why fund size erodes performance.
Star Power: The Effect of Monrningstar Ratings on Mutual Fund Flow
Authors: Guercio Diane Del , Tkac Paula A.
Published: April 2009

We apply an event-study methodology on over 10,000 Morningstar star rating changes and find that Morningstar has subsantial independent influence on the investment allocation decisions of retail mutual fund investors. It is the discrete change in the star rating itself and not the change in the underlying performance measures that drives frow. We document econnomically and statistically significant positive abnormal flow following rating upgrades, and negative abnormal flow following rating downgrades. In contrast to the cross-sectional flow performance literature, we find evidence of investor punishment of performance declines, some of which is evident immediately in the month of the rating change.
The Impact of Commercial Banks on Underwriting Spreads: Evidence from Three Decades
Authors: Kim Dongcheol , Palia Darius , Saunders Anthony
Published: April 2009

This paper examines the effect of commercial bank entry on underwriting spreads for IPOs, SEOs, and debt issues using a long time series that spans 30 years, from 1975 to 2004. We find that, on average, commercial banks charge lower spreads of approximately 72 basis points for IPOs, 43 basis points for SEOs, and 14 basis points for debt over the entire sample period. The economic impact of commercial banks on lowering underwriting spreads is most significant when commercial banks were allowed to enter via Section 20 subsidiaries but persists beyond. Commercial bank entry into underwriting appears to have a procompetitive effect that lasts many years after their initial entry.
Recovering Risk Neutral Densities from Option Prices: A New Approach
Authors: Rompolis Leonidas S. , Tzavalis Elias
Published: April 2009

In this paper we present a new method of approximating the risk neutral density (RND) from option prices based on the C-type Gram-Charlier series expansion (GCSE) of a probability density function. The exponential form of this type of GCSE guarantees that it will always give positive values of the risk neutral probabilities, and it can allow for stronger deviations from normality, which are two drawbacks of the A-type GCSE used in practice. To evaluate the performance of the suggested expansion of the RND, the paper presents simulation and empirical evidence.
Can Tests Based on Option Hedging Errors Correctly Identify Volatility Risk Premia?
Authors: Branger Nicole , Schlag Christian
Published: April 2009

Tests for the existence and the sign of the volatility risk premium are often based on expected option hedging errors. When the hedge is performed under the ideal conditions of continuous trading and correct model specification, the sign of the premium is the same as the sign of the mean hedging error for a large class of models. We show that discrete trading and model misspecification may cause the standard test to yield unreliable results. In particular, ignoring jump risk premia can lead to incorrect conclusions. We also show that delta-gamma hedges do not increase the reliability of the test.
Initial staging examinations for head and neck squamous cell carcinoma: are they appropriate?
Authors: Andrle J , Schartinger V H , Schwentner I , Deibl M , Sprinzl G M
Published: April 2009

Objectives:

The presence of distant metastases affects the therapeutic regime in patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. This study evaluated the necessity to undertake bone scanning, chest computed tomography and abdominal ultrasonography in patients presenting with primary advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.

Study design:

Retrospective analysis, university setting.

Methods:

One hundred and sixty-three patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma who were scheduled for major surgery underwent screening for distant metastases. Chest, head and neck computed tomography, abdominal ultrasonography and bone scanning were performed in all patients.

Results:

Distant metastases were detected in 5.52 per cent of the 163 patients. All of these patients had locoregional advanced (stage IV) tumours. Computed tomography scanning of the lungs revealed metastases in six patients. Bone metastases were found in three patients. Only one patient with primary liver metastases was detected by abdominal ultrasonography; this patient also had pulmonary metastases.

Conclusions:

Computed tomography of the thorax is the most important technique for screening patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma.
Temporal bone osteomyelitis and temporoparietal abscess secondary to malignant otitis externa
Authors: Alva B , Prasad K Chandra , Prasad S Chandra , Pallavi S
Published: April 2009

Objective:

We report an advanced presentation of osteomyelitis of the temporal bone secondary to malignant otitis externa.

Method:

We present a case report and a review of the world literature concerning osteomyelitis of the temporal bone secondary to malignant otitis externa.

Results:

A 60-year-old diabetic man developed osteomyelitis of the temporal bone and a temporoparietal abscess as advanced complications of malignant otitis externa. He was successfully treated in our institution using a post aural incision after draining the abscess and excising the fistula, a modified radical mastoidectomy with canal wall down procedure with sequesterectomy and debridement of surrounding area done.

Conclusion:

The terms ‘osteomyelitis of the temporal bone’, ‘skull base osteomyelitis’ and ‘malignant otitis externa’ have not been clearly defined, and have in the past often been used interchangeably in the literature. Osteomyelitis of the temporal bone can occur secondary to malignant otitis externa, acute otitis media, chronic suppurative otitis media or trauma. Here, we present the management of an advanced case of osteomyelitis of the temporal bone.
Particle acceleration in a reconnecting current sheet: PIC simulation
Authors: SIVERSKY TARAS V. , ZHARKOVA VALENTINA V.
Published: April 2009

The acceleration of protons and electrons in a reconnecting current sheet (RCS) is simulated with a particle-in-cell (PIC) 2D3V (two-dimensional in space and three-dimensional in velocity space) code for the proton-to-electron mass ratio of 100. The electromagnetic configuration forming the RCS incorporates all three components of the magnetic field (including the guiding field) and a drifted electric field. PIC simulations reveal that there is a polarization electric field that appears during acceleration owing to a separation of electrons from protons towards the midplane of the RCS. If the plasma density is low, the polarization field is weak and the particle trajectories in the PIC simulations are similar to those in the test particle (TP) approach. For the higher plasma density the polarization field is stronger and it affects the trajectories of protons by increasing their orbits during acceleration. This field also leads to a less asymmetrical abundance of ejected protons towards the midplane in comparison with the TP approach. For a given magnetic topology electrons in PIC simulations are ejected to the same semispace as protons, in contrast to the TP results. This happens because the polarization field extends far beyond the thickness of a current sheet. This field decelerates the electrons, which are initially ejected into the semispace opposite to the protons, returns them back to the RCS, and, eventually, leads to the electron ejection into the same semispace as protons. The energy distribution of the ejected electrons is rather wide and single-peaked, in contrast to the two-peak narrow-energy distribution obtained in the TP approach. In the case of a strong guiding field, the mean energy of the ejected electrons is found to be smaller than it is predicted analytically and by the TP simulations. The beam of accelerated electrons is also found to generate turbulent electric field in the form of Langmuir waves.
What is the Impact of Public Care on Children's Welfare? A Review of Research Findings from England and Wales and their Policy Implications
Authors: FORRESTER DONALD , GOODMAN KEITH , COCKER CHRISTINE , BINNIE CHARLOTTE , JENSCH GRAHAM
Published: April 2009

The outcomes for children in public care are generally considered to be poor. This has contributed to a focus on reducing the number of children in care: a goal that is made explicit in the provisions of the current Children and Young Persons Bill. Yet while children in care do less well than most children on a range of measures, such comparisons do not disentangle the extent to which these difficulties pre-dated care and the specific impact of care on child welfare. This article explores the specific impact of care through a review of British research since 1991 that provides data on changes in child welfare over time for children in care. Only 12 studies were identified, indicating a lack of research in this important area. The studies consistently found that children entering care tended to have serious problems but that in general their welfare improved over time. This finding is consistent with the international literature. It has important policy implications. Most significantly it suggests that attempts to reduce the use of public care are misguided, and may place more children at risk of serious harm. Instead, it is argued that England and Wales should move toward a Scandinavian system of public care, in which care is seen as a form of family support and is provided for more rather than fewer children and families.
Rethinking the Left in Victory and Defeat: Introduction
Authors: Hanagan Michael
Published: April 2009

The collapse of neoliberalism since September and October of 2008 has been sudden and spectacular. The failure of the ideas sustaining the Washington Consensus and the practices of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund seems nearly complete. The new world we may be entering could have a dramatically different political opportunity structure than the old one. But what will take its place? What has the Left to offer? What has it learned in recent decades that have been filled with more defeats than victories? What will it have to offerright nowwhen millions are seeking solutions? Our contributors possess no crystal ball. Our answers to these questions are framed historically. How have left movements learned from defeat in the past? What factors have enabled them to exploit moments of opportunity? Analyzing the immediate historical context to the present crisis, historians can suggest which measures promise the most hope of success and which seem doomed to failure. To this end, the papers in this collection concern themselves with left victory and defeat. They show that victory and defeat are more problematic than we might think. Each raises its own particular set of challenges and concerns.
Rethinking a Socialist Foreign Policy: The British Labour Party and International Relations Experts, 1918 to 1931
Authors: Ashworth Lucian M.
Published: April 2009

Between 1918 and 1929 the British Labour Party, working in conjunction with many of the top names in International Relations (IR), developed a coherent foreign policy centered around reforming the international system. This was a major policy change for a political party that, up until then, had concentrated on domestic social and political issues. The construction of Labour's interwar foreign policy was part of a wider intellectual revolution that produced the separate discipline of IR after the First World War, and the splits in Labour over foreign policy mirrored similar splits in the wider IR literature. Particularly important here were the differences of opinion over the relationship between arbitration, sanctions, and disarmament in a system of League of Nations pooled security. Labour's close association with IR experts and intellectuals resulted in the construction of an international policy that, while addressing socialist themes, drew on an older liberal tradition. The ultimate goal of this policy was to create pacific international conditions favorable to the development of democratic socialism. While events after 1931 forced a major rethinking in the Party, Labour's IR experts continued to provide policy-relevant advice that shaped the Party's responses to the rise of fascism.
The Beginning of Labor's End? Britain's “Winter of Discontent” and Working-Class Women's Activism
Authors: Martin Tara
Published: April 2009

In the midst of the freezing winter of 1978 and 1979, strikes erupted across Britain. In what became infamously known as the “Winter of Discontent,” workers struck against the Labour Government's attempts to curtail wage increases. The defeat of this “incomes policy” and Labour's subsequent electoral defeat ushered in an era of unprecedented political, economic, and social change for Britain. Conservative victory, under the leadership of Margaret Thatcher, not only seemed to signal the dissolution of “traditional” working-class ties to the Labour Party, it also suggested that British working-class politics might finally be on its last leg. Furthermore, a potent social myth developed around the Winter of Discontent, one where “bloody-minded” workers brought down a sympathetic government and “invited” the ravages of Thatcherism upon the British labor movement.

Absent from these various narratives are the experiences of rank-and-file activists, in particular, the growing number of female trade unionists active in these strikes. This article examines the experiences of a group of women trade unionists from the National Union of Public Employees (NUPE) who participated in the strikes of the Winter of Discontent. Based on oral histories and corresponding archival material, it argues that the Winter of Discontent provided a crucial “rite of passage” for these women, one which exposed them to an unprecedented level of involvement in grassroots labor activism and leadership. Thereafter, these working-class women began to make significant inroads into NUPE and the Labour Party, which helped to make working women's issues more central to the British labor movement for decades to come. Therefore, rather than being the death knell of British working-class politics, this study of women involved in the Winter of Discontent strikes reveals that while one form of working-class politics was in decline, a reconfigured one was in the process of being born.
“Side by Side With Our Men?” Women's Activism, Community, and Gender in the 1984–1985 British Miners’ Strike
Authors: Spence Jean , Stephenson Carol
Published: April 2009

This paper explores the gendered concept of community with reference to the activism of women during the UK 1984–1985 miners’ strike. Drawing on texts from the period and reflective discussions twenty years later with women associated with the strike, it interrogates the ways in which the idea of community was used to accommodate the activism of women. We argue that the apparently gender-neutral ideal of mining community carried meanings that had ambiguous political implications for the women and that the strike highlighted paradoxes that question established understanding of female strike activism.
Speaking Globally
Authors: van der Linden Marcel
Published: April 2009

The recent growth of the working classes in various parts of the Global South (or what was called the Tricontinent of Africa, Asia, and Latin America some years ago) has important consequences for labor historians. For a very long time labor history was mainly based in the North Atlantic region, though there have also been important nuclei in the so-called socialist countries, Japan, Australia and New Zealand, and some institutional labor history could also be found in other parts of the world at least since the 1920s. Now, however, the Global South is playing an increasingly important role in the development of working class historiography.
From data to knowledge mining
Authors: Bicharra Garcia Ana Cristina , Ferraz Inhauma , Vivacqua Adriana S.
Published: April 2009

Most past approaches to data mining have been based on association rules. However, the simple application of association rules usually only changes the user's problem from dealing with millions of data points to dealing with thousands of rules. Although this may somewhat reduce the scale of the problem, it is not a completely satisfactory solution. This paper presents a new data mining technique, called knowledge cohesion (KC), which takes into account a domain ontology and the user's interest in exploring certain data sets to extract knowledge, in the form of semantic nets, from large data sets. The KC method has been successfully applied to mine causal relations from oil platform accident reports. In a comparison with association rule techniques for the same domain, KC has shown a significant improvement in the extraction of relevant knowledge, using processing complexity and knowledge manageability as the evaluation criteria.
A re-evaluation of the impact of temperature and climate change on foodborne illness
Authors: LAKE I. R. , GILLESPIE I. A. , BENTHAM G. , NICHOLS G. L. , LANE C. , ADAK G. K. , THRELFALL E. J.
Published: April 2009

The effects of temperature on reported cases of a number of foodborne illnesses in England and Wales were investigated. We also explored whether the impact of temperature had changed over time. Food poisoning, campylobacteriosis, salmonellosis, Salmonella Typhimurium infections and Salmonella Enteritidis infections were positively associated (P<0·01) with temperature in the current and previous week. Only food poisoning, salmonellosis and S. Typhimurium infections were associated with temperature 2–5 weeks previously (P<0·01). There were significant reductions also in the impact of temperature on foodborne illnesses over time. This applies to temperature in the current and previous week for all illness types (P<0·01) except S. Enteritidis infection (P=0·079). Temperature 2–5 weeks previously diminished in importance for food poisoning and S. Typhimurium infection (P<0·001). The results are consistent with reduced pathogen concentrations in food and improved food hygiene over time. These adaptations to temperature imply that current estimates of how climate change may alter foodborne illness burden are overly pessimistic.
The Borderlands Poetics of Bruce Springsteen
Authors: LIFSHEY ADAM
Published: April 2009

How does the music of Bruce Springsteen interrogate prevailing constructs of the U.S.-Mexico border region? In his folk masterpieceThe Ghost of Tom Joad(1995) and other works that feature Spanish-speaking protagonists, Springsteen implicitly reconceptualizes the Americas as an unbordered and fluid space. His performances enact Mexico and the United States as transamerican ideations rather than discrete nations. Although the booming academic field of border studies reframes static images of both Latin America and the United States in favor of malleable transnational paradigms, it still tends to privilege cultural production emanating from the borders themselves. This propensity does not leave much space for an engagement with canonical figures of U.S. culture such as Springsteen, a singer/songwriter who theorizes the borderlands in ways that at first may seem at odds with his career-long, conscious associations with red, white, and blue semiotics. This article examines the Hispanic presences in Springsteen's oeuvre from his debut 1973 albums onward and contrasts them with the relatively fixed representations of the borderlands in the lifework of Bob Dylan.
Infrasonic jet noise from volcanic eruptions
Authors: Matoza R. S. , Fee D. , Garcés M. A. , Seiner J. M. , Ramón P. A. , Hedlin M. A. H.
Published: April 2009

The lowermost section of a Vulcanian or Plinian volcanic eruption column may be thought of as a momentum‐driven, turbulent, free‐shear jet flow. We propose that large‐amplitude and long‐duration infrasonic (<20 Hz) signals recorded at ranges of tens of kilometers during powerful eruptions at Mount St. Helens, USA, and Tungurahua, Ecuador, represent a low frequency form of jet noise. A preliminary test of this hypothesis is made by comparing the observed infrasonic spectra to the empirically‐derived similarity spectra for pure‐air jets. Although the spectral shapes are in approximate agreement, the observed volcanic signals have additional complexities not present in the pure‐air laboratory data. These features may result from multiphase flow containing solid particles and liquid droplets, very high temperatures, and perhaps complex crater morphology. However, the overall similarity between the volcanic signals and jet noise indicates that broadband infrasound measurements at volcanoes may provide a quantitative link to eruption jet dynamics, and would aid substantially in the remote assessment of volcanic hazard.
A new index to estimate precipitation using cloud growing rate
Authors: Bergès Jean Claude , Jobard Isabelle , Roca Rémy
Published: April 2009

A new index assessing the cloud growing rate is described in this paper. It has been designed to be integrated in rainfall estimation procedures. As the highest precipitation rates occur in growing convective cores, integrating this information should enhance the precipitation estimations. The index computation relies on image processing methods. It is composed of two steps: first a watershed segmentation is applied and then an original heritage process is performed. This second step, which is based on a simple matrix computation, is adapted to the watershed algorithm as it mitigates the over‐segmentation artefact. This cloud growing rate index is compared with a cooling index which is usually computed to help in identifying raining cells and it is demonstrated to be more efficient. Moreover a simple integration of this index in a widespread rainfall estimation method leads to an improvement of the diurnal cycle retrieval.
Plasma sheet P5/3 and n and associated plasma and energy transport for different convection strengths and AE levels
Authors: Wang Chih‐Ping , Lyons Larry R. , Wolf Richard A. , Nagai Tsugunobu , Weygand James M. , Lui A. T. Y.
Published: April 2009

To understand the large‐scale plasma sheet thermodynamics, we have used Geotail data and a formula for estimating flux tube volume to investigate statistically the equatorial distributions of P5/3 and n for slow flowing plasma in the nightside plasma sheet and compare them with the physical bases of ideal MHD and the Rice Convection Model (RCM). We have examined the distributions under three conditions: (1) weak convection and low AE, (2) enhanced convection and low AE, and (3) enhanced convection and high AE. The overall n decreases significantly with increasing convection or AE, while the overall P5/3 remains similar. We found that P5/3 drops significantly earthward along the estimated electric drift paths near midnight, inconsistent with ideal MHD. Examination of Pk5/3 and the electric and magnetic drift paths of different energy invariants, where Pk is the partial pressure of a specific energy invariant, shows that the strong duskward drift of the above thermal‐energy particles due to magnetic drift, together with there being significantly fewer higher‐energy particles from the dawn flank than from the tail, results in the strong earthward decrease of P5/3. We also found that d(Pk5/3)/dt = 0 and d(nk)/dt = 0 along the electric and magnetic drift paths used in the RCM are good approximations for slow flowing pressure‐bearing plasma sheet ions. The distributions of n indicate that low‐energy plasma becomes dominant when convection and AE are low, and their transport from the flanks may be affected by nonadiabatic processes not included in ideal MHD or the RCM.
Time evolution of the subauroral electric fields: A case study during a sequence of two substorms
Authors: Makarevich R. A. , Kellerman A. C. , Bogdanova Y. V. , Koustov A. V.
Published: April 2009

The temporal evolution of the subauroral polarization stream (SAPS) is investigated using the Doppler velocity observations by the Unwin HF radar in conjunction with the simultaneously observed auroral luminosity and plasma convection reversal regions. The event under study of 14 December 2004, 1000–1600 UT, occurred during geomagnetically quiet conditions when a sequence of two substorms separated by ∼2 hours was observed by the IMAGE satellite. It is shown that the SAPS appeared shortly after the first substorm onset and continued to dominate the westward plasma convection at subauroral magnetic latitudes 59°–63°S for ∼6 hours. An unexpected exception occurred near the second substorm onset time when a narrow channel of weaker SAPS westward convection became embedded in the slow eastward drifting plasma for a short ∼25‐min period, which was attributed to the equatorward expansion of the dawn convection cell during the growth and expansion phases of the second substorm. Another remarkable plasma convection feature was observed in the same 25‐min period ∼5° poleward of SAPS; this was a narrow “mirror” channel of the eastward drifting plasma parallel to the main SAPS channel. It is argued that the latter feature may also be caused by the equatorward expanding dawn convection cell whose streamlines become compressed by and aligned with the SAPS poleward edge. A possible relationship between the SAPS intensity and its position relative to the auroral oval is also investigated. The results suggest that the magnetosphere‐ionosphere feedback processes within SAPS become more effective as the equatorward edge of the eastward convection region retreats poleward with the SAPS position much less affected by the auroral dynamics.
Comparisons of global cloud ice from MLS, CloudSat, and correlative data sets
Authors: Wu D. L. , Austin R. T. , Deng M. , Durden S. L. , Heymsfield A. J. , Jiang J. H. , Lambert A. , Li J.‐L. , Livesey N. J. , McFarquhar G. M. , Pittman J. V. , Stephens G. L. , Tanelli S. , Vane D. G. , Waliser D. E.
Published: April 2009

Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) version 2.2 (V2.2) and CloudSat R04 (release 4) ice water content (IWC) and partial‐column ice water path (pIWP) measurements are analyzed and compared to other correlative data sets. The MLS IWC, representing an average over ∼300 × 7 × 4 km3 volume, is retrieved at 215–268 hPa with precision varying between 0.06 and 1 mg/m3. The MLS pIWP products, representing the partial columns over ∼100 × 7 km2 area with the bottom at ∼8, ∼6, and ∼11 km for 115, 240, and 640 GHz, have estimated precisions of 5, 1.5, and 0.8 g/m2, respectively. CloudSat, on the other hand, shows a minimum detectable sensitivity of −31 dBZ in the reflectivity measurement at 94 GHz. CloudSat IWC is an average over ∼1.8 × 1.4 × 0.5 km3 volume, and its precision varies from 0.4 mg/m3 at 8 km to 1.6 mg/m3 at 12 km. The estimated single‐profile precision for CloudSat IWP is ∼9 g/m2. However, these measurements are associated with relatively large systematic error, mostly due to uncertainties in the retrieval assumptions about microphysics, which lead to relatively poor accuracy compared to measurement precision. To characterize systematic differences among various observations and those derived from models, we employ the normalized probability density function (pdf) in the comparisons. CloudSat IWC shows generally consistent slopes of pdf distribution with in situ observations, particularly at ∼12 km where the in situ data come mostly from long‐leg flights. Despite similar IWC morphology found between MLS and CloudSat observations, CloudSat R04 IWC retrieval is higher compared to MLS, especially at 14–17 km where the MLS technique is not limited by sensitivity saturation. The MLS and CloudSat IWC pdf's agree well in the overlapped sensitivity range with relative difference <50%, but the difference appears to increase with IWC. MLS and CloudSat cloud ice measurements are compared with other data sets in terms of monthly map and pdf. Comparisons with European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) analyses show that grid box averages of monthly ECMWF IWC are much smaller (by ∼5× and ∼20×) than the same MLS and CloudSat averages. Comparisons of pIWP data from CloudSat and passive sensors reveal large uncertainties associated with passive techniques, such as penetration depth and sensitivity limitation. In particular, retrievals from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit‐B (AMSU‐B) differ largely in IWP pdf from the CloudSat R04 retrieval, showing CloudSat values generally lower (by ∼5× and ∼8×, respectively) at IWP = 10–500 g/m2 but higher at IWP > 500 g/m2.