bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Alternative Technological Indices and Factor Demands in the Electric Power Industry
Authors: Nelson Randy
Published: May 2011

The role of technical progress as a means of extending energy resources, together with the widespread use of flexible functional forms, has led to increased interest in the estimation of nonneutral technical change in recent years. Studies by Binswanger (1974), Berndt and Khaled (1979), and Berndt and Wood (1982) at the aggregate level and Wills (1979), Toevs (1980), Moroney and Trapani (1981), and Jorgenson and Fraumeni (1981) at the sectoral level have provided estimates of biased technical change. Stevenson (1980), Gollop and Roberts (1981, 1983), and Nelson (1984, 1986) have also estimated models of nonneutral technical change for the electric power industry. Almost all these studies have two features in common. To begin with, they have employed a time trend to represent the rate at which new technology is introduced.' A recent study by Kopp and Smith (1985), however, indicates that time trends may fail to provide a consistent description of the direction of technical change and calls for the use of technologically explicit indicators of the pace of innovation.
Futures Trading and the European Oil Market
Authors: Bird Peter J.N.W
Published: May 2011

The subject of this paper is the behavior of daily gas oil futures prices on the London-based International Petroleum Exchange (IPE). It reports results consistent with the hypothesis that prices on the IPE follow a random walk.
On Marginal Cost Pricing When Consumers Can Also Produce
Authors: Ravid Abraham S.
Published: May 2011

Marginal cost pricing, so often praised in theoretical as well as empirical studies, is correct only for a very idealised economy. When a theoretical model is adjusted for some real world concerns, pricing at marginal cost begins to seem impractical and often incorrect. Baumol and Bradford (1970) wrote perhaps the most striking article along these lines, showing that in an economy where the government has authority to tax, marginal cost pricing is not optimal and second-best solutions are called for.
Assessing the U.S. Federal Tax Burden on Oil and Gas Extraction
Authors: Lucke Robert , Toder Eric
Published: May 2011

This paper assesses the burden of the Federal income tax on oil and gas extraction. It examines departures from neutrality between oil and gas and other activities, among different types of oil and gas properties, and between independent and integrated producers.' Effective tax rates on different oil and gas properties are derived by computing the required profitability on new investments, given the tax laws and an assumed after-tax discount rate. Our analysis shows that oil and gas extraction is taxed more favorably than most other business activities under both current law and the law in effect prior to the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA). The effective tax rate on oil and gas investments is very sensitive to characteristics of the property and of the company developing it, but it is lower than effective tax rates on other industries in all the cases we examined.
A Time-Series Analysis of U.S. Petroleum Industry Inventory Behavior
Authors: Krol Robert , Svorny Shirley
Published: May 2011

This paper examines inventory behavior in the U.S. petroleum industry. Inventories of crude oil and its three major products-gasoline, distillate and residual fuel oil-are studied. Earlier empirical studies of inventory behavior have been unable to provide evidence of the production smoothing role of inventories emphasized in the theoretical literature (see Blinder, 1984). We suggest that these results are due to a tradition of relying on a partial-adjustment model to explain inventory behavior. We feel that the partial-adjustment model ignores potentially significant relationships between lagged values of explanatory variables and inventories implied by dynamic analysis. This leads us to investigate the time-series properties of petroleum inventories using the vector autoregression (VAR) methodology developed by Sims (1980).
Some General-Equilibrium Considerations for the Analysis of Oil Import Restrictions
Authors: Mork Knut Anton
Published: May 2011

Recent events in the oil market and the persistent U.S. government deficit have sparked renewed interest in a tax or a tariff on oil. I have argued elsewhere (Mork, 1985) for such taxation from the perspective of macroeconomic stability. However, quite often the argument is based on the simple static notion that an oil import tariff will soften the world oil market and improve the terms of trade.
Energy Economics in Developing Countries: Analytical Framework and Problems of Application
Authors: Munasinghe Mohan
Published: May 2011

The pervasive and vital role of energy in national economies indicates that the identification of energy issues and energy policy analysis and implementation are important areas of study. While the drop in world oil prices which began in 1986 has provided some relief to the economies of oil-importing nations, energy-related problems still preoccupy the minds of decision-makers in most developing countries. Thus, while most of the key energy issues identified during the past decade persist, the availability of adequate energy resources at reasonable cost remains a vital precondition for continued economic growth. Typically, energy investments still account for about 25 percent of total public capital investments in developing countries.
Pricing Policies of an Oil Cartel with Expectation of Substitute Producers
Authors: Ahmadian Majid
Published: May 2011

The proposition that the net price in a competitive market and the net marginal revenue in a monopolistic market rise at the rate of interest was first demonstrated by Hotelling (1931) for a non-durable exhaustible resource. However, Levhari and Liviatan (1977) and Fisher (1981) have shown that Hotelling's r-percent rule is not valid when extraction costs rise with cumulative production. This r-percent rule also applies to a perfectly durable resource when the resource is produced in a competitive market. It does not apply in the case of a monopolistic market.
Nuclear Energy After Chernobyl: Views from Four Countries
Authors: Hansen Ulf , Chapuis Christine , Connolly Thomas J. , Lepisfo Arto
Published: May 2011

At the end of 1986, 397 nuclear power plants with a total of 274 GW were in operation worldwide. Their electricity generation was equivalent to burning 500 million tons of coal or 7 million barrels per day of oil, roughly 40 percent of the OPEC output. When the 134GW under construction are finished, uranium-based electricity will substitute some 850 million tons of coal equivalent (mtce) per year. Nuclear power is now the largest primary energy source for electricity generation in the twelve countries of the European Community.
Water, Wind and Soil: Hidden Keys to The Water Planet Earth and to Economic Macroprocesses
Authors: Pillet Gonzague
Published: May 2011

This essay tentatively integrates the analysis of macroeconomic processes with that of natural ecological systems via energy balances and calculations. On the one hand, entropy studies concerning ecology and economy by Tsuchida (1976), Tamanoi, Tsuchida & Murota (1984), Murota (1984, 1985, 1987), Tsuchida & Murota (1985), and Kawamiya (1985) have stressed the major importance of the water cycle, wind energy, and the topsoil function as the hidden keys to the earth's open steady state and the renewability of its living systems.
Optimal Off-peak Incremental Sales Rate Design in Electricity Pricing
Authors: Woo Chi-Keung , Seeto Dewy Q.
Published: May 2011

Nonlinear pricing has recently become a subject of intense research in utility pricing. This research begins with the work on multipart tariffs which points out the superiority of nonlinear pricing over linear pricing and the importance of self-selection in regulatory pricing (see e.g., Brown and Sibley (1986), Faulhaber and Panzar (1977), Willig (1978) and Mirman and Sibley (1980)). That is, by providing a menu of rate options from which a ratepayer chooses what he most prefers, the utility and the ratepayers are both better off than when only one linear rate schedule is available (e.g., a non-time differentiated energy charge).
Inefficiency of Avoided Cost Pricing of Cogenerated Power
Authors: Woo Chi-Keung
Published: May 2011

Section 210 of the Public Utility Regulatory Act of 1978 requires that the rates paid to qualifying small power production facilities (QFs) should be "just and reasonable" and "shall not discriminate against qualifying cogenerators." However, the rates should not "exceed the incremental cost to the electric utility of the alternative electric energy." Armed with this federal regulation, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in July 1985 issued Decision No. 85-07-022 for the Phase I of the Order-Instituting-Rulemaking No. 2 (OIR-2) arguing that privately owned electric utilities should pay QF's the cost of owning and operating a power plant that can be displaced by QF production. The total avoided cost is the difference between total cost of utility generation before QF production and after QF production (see Appendix 1 of the CPUC decision).
What Price Security? Three Views of the DOE Report. Spinning Wheels: A Review Article
Authors: Randall Curlee T. , Wright Arthur W.
Published: May 2011

In March 1987, the U.S. Department of Energy published a report entitled Energy Security. This was a comprehensive presentation of the American government's view of both the world energy situation and the policies it advocates. Because of the importance of this report, The Energy Journal commissioned a series of studies to critically analyze key aspects of the report and extend the discussion. In this issue, we offer the first set of these studies. Our July issue will present three papers on the value of an oil import fee (or tariff). Notes, comments, and letters to the editor on this topic are strongly encouraged.

Special Feature

Spinning Wheels: A Review Article

T. Randall Curlee and Arthur W. Wright

Energy Security Revisited: A Report to the President of the United States (U.S. Department of Energy, March 1987) is a hefty book-240 pages of text, five appendices (several based on macroeconometric simulations), and fourteen pages of references (but no index). Parts of the book are quite good and constitute a major improvement over what passed for studies of energy security in the 1960s and 1970s. Unfortunately, most of the book's heft is wheel spinning: a lot of energy is expended, but we do not get very far. Greater understanding of energy security could have been accomplished in far fewer pages.
A Critical Analysis of the DOE Report
Authors: Fred S. Singer
Published: May 2011

The DOE Report, Energy Security, responds to White House con- cern about the decline of domestic oil production and the rise of oil imports. The Report (1987) has three purposes: to present data; to make projections; and to analyze policy alternatives. It is intended to provide a basis for making rational policy choices, but it does not make specific recommendations. My analysis here is intended as a critique of the report so that policy decision making can be improved. My analysis deals mainly with the oil sector; the report itself is more comprehensive. I provide specific recommendations relating mainly to producer and consumer tax policy, import fees, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) although the report covers a wider range of topics, including federal leasing policy.
Energy Implications of the Advances in Superconductivity Technology
Authors: Netschert Bruce C.
Published: May 2011

The word "breakthrough" is much abused, but in describing the events of the early months of 1987 in the field of superconductivity it is wholly appropriate. Well-publicized (and in some instances sensationalized) by the general press, the essential elements of the story are well known to the lay public even if not well understood. The phenomenon of superconductivity, previously producible only at temperatures close to absolute zero,' was shown to be producible at much higher temperatures, and there have been tantalizing experimental hints of its producibility at room temperature.
Improving long-Term Investment Decisions under Uncertainty: Applications for the Swedish Energy Sector
Authors: Bergendahl Per Anders , Brigelius Lars , Rosin Peter
Published: May 2011

The oil price shocks in the 1970s illuminated the vulnerability of modern economies when all planning assumes everything to be going on just as usual. How is it then possible to insure against events such as oil price shocks? What will it cost and what will be the return? These are the central issues in this paper.
The Adjustment of U.S. Oil Demand to the Price Increases of the 1970s
Authors: Gately Dermot , Rappoport Peter
Published: May 2011

Since the 1979-80 oil price doubling, U.S. oil consumption has declined by about 20 percent, in part because of price-induced conservation. This has caused self-congratulatory euphoria, especially in the first few months of 1986, when both the oil price and OPEC were collapsing. We argue here that the euphoria could well be short-lived. U.S. oil consumption will resume its growth and, within five to ten years, could be higher than ever. Combining these results with the consensus projection of declining domestic production, the outlook for rapidly growing dependence on imported oil is disturbing. Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose.
Declining Energy Intensity in the U.S. Manufacturing Sector
Authors: Doblin Claire P.
Published: May 2011

Since the first oil price shock of 1973 -74, there has been considerable reduction in total energy use per unit of total output. This development has many names: increasing energy conservation, demand elasticity, increasing energy productivity, or, conversely, decreasing energy intensity.
Nonresponse in Residential Energy Surveys: Systematic Patterns and Implications for End-Use Models
Authors: Ong Paul M. , Holt Suzanne , Barnes Richard S. , Skumatz Lisa A.
Published: May 2011

Surveys-one of the most widely used tools for collecting information relevant to studying residential energy consumption-are both a boon and a bane to researchers. The data can be used to calculate appliance and insulation saturations and, when combined with billing information, used to model household demand for energy. Unfortunately, most of these surveys, commonly known as residential appliance saturation surveys, have an inherent problem associated with incomplete responses. This particularly applies to questions regarding energy-related characteristics of the housing units, such as whether or not the units are insulated.
Choice of Technology and Long-Run Technical Change in Energy-Intensive Industries
Authors: Forsund Finn R. , Hjalmarsson Lennart
Published: May 2011

The difference between short-run and long-run flexibility in energy use is an important topic in energy demand modeling. Dynamic formulations are required to reveal this difference. The microeconomic foundation for the distinction between short- and long-run energy substitution possibilities is the embodiment of production techniques.
Energy Conservation versus Supply Strategies: Implications for Industrial Policy
Authors: Bourgeois Bernard , Criqui Patrick , Percebois Jacques
Published: May 2011

Many strategies were developed by energy-importing countries to cope with oil shocks. Some mainly adapted to the new constraints of the energy environment and tried to make up for a relative disadvantage in the energy field by obtaining a relative advantage in industry or trade. The main effect of these adaptation strategies has been to offset growing energy deficits with steadily increasing industrial surpluses. On the other hand, other strategies were adopted which aimed above all at restructuring the domestic energy system through a voluntaristic policy of promoting domestic energy supply. In these cases, investment in the energy sector was given a high priority, sometimes at the expense of other industrial sectors.
Renewable Energy and Long-Term Energy Planning
Authors: Connor-Lajambe Hėléne
Published: May 2011

Even without any energy crisis, exploiting renewable sources of energy appears more and more important to ensure the reliability of long-term supply and to provide relief now. According to the Canadian Office of Energy Research and Development, in 1985 renewable energy sources (excluding large hydro developments) contributed to yearly needs as much energy as frontier oil and gas fields combined are expected to yield by the turn of the century. This contribution was not forecast in official studies, and this failure demands that we look into the causes.
On the Economics of Improved Oil Recovery: The Optimal Recovery Factor from Oil and Gas Reservoirs
Authors: Nystad Arild N.
Published: May 2011

This paper investigates an oil company's optimal depletion of oil and gas reservoirs, taking into account that the depletion policy itself influences the recoverable reserves, i.e. determines the recovery factor. The emphasis is on the role of up-front capital costs. The depletion policy is derived from the amount of investment in production and associated injection projects, represented in a stylized fashion. I make a comparative static study of how various economic factors influence the company's choice of an optimal depletion policy and, thus, implicitly of an optimal recovery factor.
Taking Off: The U.S. Demand for Air Travel and Jet Fuel
Authors: Gately Dermot
Published: May 2011

Since 1965 U.S. air travel has grown three times faster than GNP. Jet fuel demand, although virtually unchanged between 1969 and 1982 because of improved efficiency in fuel use by jet aircraft, has grown 30 percent since 1982. The key question is whether fuel-efficiency improvements can keep up with the rapid growth in air travel.
The Use of NYMEX Options to Forecast Crude Oil Prices
Authors: Overdahl James A. , Matthews H.Lee
Published: May 2011

The recent introduction of traded options on crude oil futures contracts at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) gives energy economists a new tool for forecasting the price of crude oil. Since the pricing of these options requires that market participants assess the probability distribution of future crude oil prices, a properly specified model of option pricing can be used to "back out" this assessment from observed option prices.
ITC in a Global Growth-Climate Model with CCS: The Value of Induced Technical Change for Climate Stabilization
Authors: Gerlagh Reyer
Published: May 2011

We assess the effect of ITC in a global growth model, - DEMETER-1CCS - with learning-by-doing, where energy savings, energy transition and carbon capturing and sequestration (CCS) are the three main options for emissions reductions. The model accounts for technological change based on learning by doing, embodied in capital installed in previous periods. We run five scenarios: one baseline scenario with no climate change policy and four stabilization scenarios in which atmospheric CO2 concentrations are stabilized at 550, 500, 450, and 400 ppmv. We find that the timing of emissions reductions and the investment strategy is relatively independent of the endogeneity of technological change. More important is the vintages’ structure of production. ITC does reduce costs by approximately a factor of 2, however, these benefits only materialize after some decades.
Decarbonizing the Global Economy with Induced Technological Change: Scenarios to 2100 using E3MG
Authors: Barker Terry , Pan Haoran , Jonathan Köhler , Warren Rachel , Winne Sarah
Published: May 2011

This paper reports how endogenous economic growth and technological change have been introduced into a global econometric model. It explains how further technological change might be induced by mitigation policies so as to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stabilize atmospheric concentrations. These are the first results of a structural econometric approach to modeling the global economy using the model E3MG (energy-environment-economy model of the globe), which in turn constitutes one component in the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) of the UK Tyndall Centre. The model is simplified to provide a post-Keynesian view of the long-run, with an indicator of technological progress affecting each region’s exports and energy use. When technological progress is endogenous in this way, long-run growth in global GDP is partly explained by the model. Average permit prices and tax rates about $430/tC (1995) prices after 2050 are sufficient to stabilize atmospheric concentrations at 450ppm CO2 after 2100. They also lead to higher economic growth.
Endogenous Structural Change and Climate Targets Modeling Experiments with Imaclim-R
Authors: Crassous Renaud , Hourcade Jean-Charles , Sassi Olivier
Published: May 2011

This paper envisages endogenous technical change that results from the interplay between the economic growth engine, consumption, technology and localization patterns. We perform numerical simulations with the recursive dynamic general equilibrium model Imaclim-R to study how modeling induced technical change affects costs of CO2 stabilization. Imaclim-R incorporates innovative specifications about final consumption of transportation and energy to represent critical stylized facts such as rebound effects and demand induction by infrastructures and equipments. Doing so brings to light how induced technical change may not only lower stabilization costs thanks to pure technological progress, but also trigger induction of final demand—effects critical to both the level of the carbon tax and the costs of policy given a specific stabilization target. Finally, we study the sensitivity of total stabilization costs to various parameters including both technical assumptions as accelerated turnover of equipments and non-energy choices as alternative infrastructure policies.
The Transition to Endogenous Technical Change in Climate-Economy Models: A Technical Overview to the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project
Authors: Jonathan Köhler , Grubb Michael , Popp David , Edenhofer Ottmar
Published: May 2011

This paper assesses endogenous technical change (ETC) in climate-economy models, using the models in the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project (IMCP) as a representative cross-section. ETC is now a feature of most leading models. Following the new endogenous growth literature and the application of learning curves to the energy sector, there are two main concepts employed: knowledge capital and learning curves. The common insight is that technical change is driven by the development of knowledge capital and its characteristics of being partly non-rival and partly non-excludable. There are various different implementations of ETC. Recursive CGE models face particular difficulties in incorporating ETC and increasing returns. The main limitations of current models are: the lack of uncertainty analysis; the limited representation of the diffusion of technology; and the homogeneous nature of agents in the models including the lack of representation of institutional structures in the innovation process.
Induced Technological Change in a Limited Foresight Optimization Model
Authors: Hedenus Fredrik , Azar Christian , Lindgren Kristian
Published: May 2011

The threat of global warming calls for a major transformation of the energy system in the coming century. The treatment of technological change in energy system models is a critical challenge. Technological change may be treated as induced by climate policy or as exogenous. We investigate the importance of induced technological change (ITC) in GET-LFL, an iterative optimization model with Limited Foresight that incorporates Learning-by-doing. Scenarios for stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 400, 450, 500 and 550 ppm are studied. We find that the introduction ofITC reduces the total net present value of the abatement cost over this century by 3-9% compared to a case where technological learning is exogenous. Technology specific policies which force the introduction of fuel cell cars and solar PV in combination with ITC reduce the costs further by 4-7% and lead to significantly different technological solutions, primarily in the transport sector.
Importance of Technological Change and Spillovers in Long-Term Climate Policy
Authors: Rao Shilpa , Keppo Ilkka , Riahi Keywan
Published: May 2011

This paper examines the role of technological change and spillovers within the context of a climate policy in a long-term scenario of the global energy system. We use the energy-systems optimization model MESSAGE considering endogenous learning for various technologies, such that they experience cost reductions as a function of accumulated capacity installations. We find that the existence of technological learning while reducing overall energy system costs becomes particularly important in the context of a long-term climate policy. Diversity in technological portfolios is emphasized and results indicate deployment of a range of energy technologies in reducing emissions. An important finding is that technological learning by itself is not sufficient for climate stabilization and that climate policies are an absolute necessary complimentary element. Under a climate constraint, spillovers across technologies and regions due to learning results in increased upfront investments and hence lower costs of carbon free technologies, thus resulting in technology deployment and emissions reductions, especially in developing countries. We conclude that learning and spillover effects can lead to technologically advanced cost-effective global energy transition pathways. We suggest that coordinated climate stabilization policies can serve as important institutional mechanisms that facilitate the required technological investments, especially in developing countries and thus ensure long-term cost reductions.
Hybrid Modeling: New Answers to Old Challenges Introduction to the Special Issue of The Energy Journal
Authors: Hourcade Jean-Charles , Jaccard Mark , Bataille Chris , Ghersif Frédéric
Published: May 2011

After nearly two decades of debate and fundamental disagreement, top-down and bottom-up energy-economy modelers, sometimes referred to as modeling ‘tribes’, began to engage in productive dialogue in the mid-1990s (IPCC 2001). From this methodological conversation have emerged modeling approaches that offer a hybrid of the two perspectives. Yet, while individual publications over the past decade have described efforts at hybrid modeling, there has not as yet been a systematic assessment of their prospects and challenges. To this end, several research teams that explore hybrid modeling held a workshop in Paris on April 20-21, 2005 to share and compare the strategies and techniques that each has applied to the development of hybrid modeling. This special issue provides the results of the workshop and of follow-up efforts between different researchers to exchange ideas.
A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model
Authors: Bosetti Valentina , Carraro Carlo , Galeotti Marzio , Massetti Emanuele , Tavoni Massimo
Published: May 2011

The need for a better understanding of future energy scenarios, of their compatibility with the objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations, and of their links with climate policy, calls for the development of hybrid models. Hybrid because both the technological detail typical of Bottom Up (BU) models and the long run dynamics typical of Top Down (TD) models are crucially necessary. We present WITCH - World Induced Technical Change Hybrid model - a neoclassical optimal growth model (TD) with energy input detail (BU). The model endogenously accounts for technological progress, both through learning curves affecting prices of new vintages of capital and through R&D investments. In addition, the model captures the main economic interrelationships between world regions and is designed to analyze the optimal economic and environment policies in each world region as the outcome of a dynamic game. This paper provides a detailed description of the WITCH model, of its Baseline, and of the model calibration procedure.
Macroeconomic Consistency Issues in E3 Modeling: The Continued Fable of the Elephant and the Rabbit
Authors: Ghersi Frédéric , Hourcade Jean-Charles
Published: May 2011

Starting from a short presentation of the limits of using conventional production functions to hybridize energy-economy relationships, this paper presents a methodology aiming at a better integration of bottom-up policy scenarios in a top-down static general equilibrium framework. Along the lines of Ahmad’s innovation possibility curve, the methodology consists in implementing top-down envelopes of production and demand functions, whose variable point elasticities of substitution provide a flexible interface for calibration on any bottom-up expertise. Numerical experiments assessing the impact of a rising carbon tax on the global 2030 economy compare the application of this methodology to that of two standard CES-based approaches. Results confirm that, in case of large departures from reference scenarios or of strong convexities in bottom-up results, the use of conventional CESproduction and utility functions may lead to a significant bias in cost assessment.
The ObjECTS Framework for Integrated Assessment: Hybrid Modeling of Transportation
Authors: Kim Son H. , Edmonds Jae , Lurz Josh , Smith Steven J. , Wise Marshall
Published: May 2011

Technology is a central issue for the global climate change problem, requiring analysis tools that can examine the impact of specific technologies within a long-term, global context. This paper describes the architecture of the ObjECTS-MiniCAM integrated assessment model, which implements a longterm, global model of energy, economy, agriculture, land-use, atmosphere, and climate change in a framework that allows the flexible incorporation of explicit technology detail. We describe the implementation of a “bottom-up” representation of the transportation sector as an illustration of this approach, in which the resulting hybrid model is fully integrated, internally consistent and theoretically compatible with the regional and global modeling framework. The analysis of the transportation sector presented here supports and clarifies the need for a comprehensive strategy promoting advanced vehicle technologies and an economy-wide carbon policy to cost-effectively reduce carbon emissions from the transportation sector in the long-term.
Towards General Equilibrium in a Technology-Rich Model with Empirically Estimated Behavioral Parameters
Authors: Bataille Chris , Jaccard Mark , Nyboer John , Rivers Nic
Published: May 2011

Most energy-economy policy models offered to policy makers are deficient in terms of at least one of technological explicitness, microeconomic realism, or macroeconomic completeness. We herein describe CIMS, a model which starts with the technological explicitness of the “bottom-up” approach and adds the microeconomic realism and macroeconomic completeness of the “topdown” CGE approach. This paper demonstrates CIMS’ direct utility for policy analysis, and also how it can be used to better estimate the long run capital-forenergy substitution elasticity (ESUB) and autonomous energy efficiency index (AEEI) technology parameters used in top-down models. By running CIMS under several possible energy price futures and observing their effects on capital and energy input shares and energy consumption, we estimate an economy-wide ESUB of 0.26 and an AEEI of 0.57%, with significant sectoral differences for both parameters.
Modeling Detailed Energy-Efficiency Technologies and Technology Policies within a CGE Framework
Authors: “Skip” Laitner John A. , Hanson Donald A.
Published: May 2011

Policy makers and analysts are raising questions about the adequacy of policy and technology representation in conventional energy and economic models. Most conventional models rely on a highly stylized and limited characterization of technology. In these models, any desired changes in energy demand are driven largely by pure price mechanisms such as energy taxes or carbon charges. In this paper, however, we explore the mapping of discrete technology characterizations and examine how cost-effective technologies and programs might prompt desirable increases in energy efficiency. Using the commercial health care sector as an example, we show how changes in energy efficiency and technology investments might be more properly represented in policy models.
Multigas Mitigation: An Economic Analysis Using GRAPE Model
Authors: Kurosawa Atsushi
Published: May 2011

Future global warming may depend strongly on the potential for abating emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Flexibility in implementing climate change mitigation policies can significantly reduce mitigation costs and has three dimensions; space, time and gas species. Therefore, multiple greenhouse gas reduction flexibility should be considered. The emission and reduction potential of CO2 and non-CO2 GHGs are assessed here using an integrated assessment model under climate change targets. The implications on gas life as well as abatement timing uncertainty on costs, technological availability, etc. are discussed. The introduction of additional multigas reductions will cut the economic burden of achieving a given climate change target. The conclusions are threefold; (1) Multigas mitigation is a cost effective strategy compared to CO2-only mitigation under the same climate target, (2) CO2 mitigation is expected to lead to ancillary reductions in CH4, N2O and SOx emissions, and (3) There is great uncertainty in the assessment of non-CO2 GHG mitigation opportunities.
Burden Sharing Within a Multi-Gas Strategy
Authors: Bernard Alain , Vielle Marc , Viguier Laurent
Published: May 2011

The purpose of this paper is to assess and compare regional welfare costs associated with alternative multi-gas strategies for a stabilization of global greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions in the long run. Mitigation costs of non-CO2 greenhouse gases are integrated into a multi-region multi-country CGE model of the world economy. Calibrations are based on GHG emissions projections from, and marginal abatement cost curves provided by, the EMF21 working group for the six greenhouse gases. We find that the introduction of non-CO2 GHGs in the mitigation strategy reduces significantly the welfare cost of a long term emissions stabilization policy but that benefits vary across regions. We also find that the various possible rules of emission quotas allocation may have large effects on the burden sharing among regions.
Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases in the Second Generation Model
Authors: Fawcett Allen A. , Sands Ronald D.
Published: May 2011

The Second Generation Model (SGM) was developed to analyze policies designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This paper documents how greenhouse gas emissions are calculated in the SGM, and provides an application to several Energy Modeling Forum scenarios that stabilize radiative forcing by using policies that either exclusively limit CO2 emissions or include both CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases. Additionally, this paper discusses an extension which includes advanced fossil generating technologies with CO2 capture and storage in the USA region of the SGM.
Benefits of Multi-Gas Mitigation: An Application of the Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM)
Authors: Jakeman Guy , Fisher Brian S.
Published: May 2011

To address the problem of human induced climate change effectively, climate policy must embody the principles of economic efficiency, environmental effectiveness and equity. In this paper it is shown that such a climate change policy should include a broad coverage of major greenhouse gases and sources. ABARE’s Global Trade and Environment Model (GTEM) is used to analyse the economic impact of meeting a radiative forcing target using policies that focus on carbon dioxide emissions only and policies that focus on all major greenhouse gases and sources, including land use change and forestry emissions. It is projected that incorporating non-carbon dioxide gases into climate change policy reduces the economic adjustment cost significantly. Broadening the sources of carbon dioxide to include land use change and forestry emissions further reduces the economic adjustment costs.
Technology Policy and World Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the AMIGA Modeling System
Authors: Hanson Donald A. , “Skip” Laitner John A.
Published: May 2011

In this paper we examine the interaction between technology policy and its impact on the full basket of worldwide greenhouse emissions over the 21st century. The heart of the analysis is the Argonne National Laboratory’s AMIGA Modeling System, a technology rich, general equilibrium model that (depending on data availability) characterizes as many as 200 sectors of the regional economies. We suggest in this paper that technologies and technology policies exist which could reduce carbon emissions enough to achieve stabilization targets at relatively modest costs given the size of the world economy. This can be accomplished largely through harnessing market forces and creating incentives with the use of efficient prices on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with complementary programs and policies to reduce market failures and to promote new technology improvements and investments.
Global Anthropogenic Methane and Nitrous Oxide Emissions
Authors: Scheehle Elizabeth A. , Kruger Dina
Published: May 2011

Methane and Nitrous Oxide emissions contribute significantly to greenhouse gas emissions globally, with an estimated total of 1,618 and 950 million metric tons of carbon equivalent in 2000, respectively. The estimates of these gases are highly dependent on country specific activity data and emission factors. Most countries are presently or are in the process of developing greenhouse gas inventories and projections. Developed countries are using more in-depth, detailed methodologies, activity data, and emissions factors and are passing on this knowledge to other countries through bilateral and multilateral processes. In order to take advantage of this newly available information, we have incorporated the detailed country prepared inventories and projections into an overall global estimation framework. The source and country level estimation methodology presented in this study allows for more accurate anthropogenic emission level estimates at a global level. The results show a slow growth in the recent historical period with quicker growth to 2020, under a without measures scenario.
Efficiency Gains from “What”-Flexibility in Climate Policy An Integrated CGE Assessment
Authors: Böhringer Christoph , Löschel Andreas , Rutherford Thomas F.
Published: May 2011

We investigate the importance of “what”-flexibility on top of “where”-and “when”-flexibility for alternative emission control schemes that prescribe long-term temperature targets and eventually impose additional constraints on the rate of temperature change. We find that “what”-flexibility substantially reduces the economic adjustment costs. When comparing policies that simply involve long-term temperature targets against more stringent strategies with constraints on the rate of temperature increase, it turns out that the latter involve much higher costs. The cost difference may be interpreted as additional insurance payments if climate damages should not only depend on absolute temperature change but also on the rate of temperature change.
India’s Non-CO2 GHG Emissions: Development Pathways and Mitigation Flexibility
Authors: Shukla P. R. , Garg Amit , Kapshe Manmohan , Nairf Rajesh
Published: May 2011

This paper analyses the future trends (2000-2030) in Methane and Nitrous Oxide emissions across four scenarios that have been developed for India. The future state of Indian economy in the next 30-years has been broadly visualized under four scenarios proposed as combinations of market integration (extent of liberalization, globalization and integration with the world markets) and nature of governance (centralization vs. decentralization). The methodology chosen for the development of these scenarios draws mainly from the IPCC SRES methodology. The paper presents CH4 and N2O emissionsfor each of the scenarios for all the major emitting sectors. The major sources of Methane emissions are livestock and paddy contributing to about 65% of the total emissions in 2000. The share of emissions from Municipal Solid Waste is also expected to rise with increasing urbanization. Nitrous Oxide emissions arise chiefly from synthetic fertilizer use (contributing 67% of total emissions) and from field burning of agricultural residue. The paper also presents mitigation analysis for CO2 and CH4 and long-term, hundred-year analysis for CO2, CH4 and N2O.
Estimating Future Emissions and Potential Reductions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6
Authors: Schaefer Deborah Ottinger , Godwin Dave , Harnisch Jochen
Published: May 2011

Atmospheric concentrations of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 have been growing rapidly over the last 100 years, and they have the potential to continue growing rapidly, given the high growth rates of some emitting industries and the role of HFCs and PFCs as replacements for ozone-depleting substances. This analysis estimates global emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 from twelve source categories for the years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, and 2020, and provides guidance for projecting emissions beyond 2020. It also presents 2010 and 2020 marginal abatement cost curves (MACs) for the same source categories. To address issues unique to the fluorinated gases, the analysis accounts for the impact of international industry agreements to voluntarily reduce emission rates, and it aggregates emissions and MACs by gas lifetime as well as economic sector. Results indicate the availability of large, low-cost reductions, especially in developing countries, and the importance of better characterizing these reductions in future analysis.
Carbon Sequestration in Global Forests Under Different Carbon Price Regimes
Authors: Sohngen Brent , Sedjo Roger
Published: May 2011

This paper examines the potential role of carbon sequestration in forests under a range of exogenously chosen carbon price paths. The price paths were chosen to simulate several different climate change policies. The results indicate that global sequestration could range from 48-147 Pg C by 2105 for carbon prices ranging from $100 to more than $800 per t C by the end of the century. The timing of sequestration is found to be sensitive to the assumed carbon price path. Low initial carbon prices ($10 - $20 per t C in 2010) followed by rapid price increases, as might occur if policy makers try to stabilize future concentrations, suggest little, if any, sequestration during the next 20 years (-0.2 to 4.5 Pg C). If policy makers develop policies that support higher initial carbon prices, ranging from $75 to $100 per t C, 17 to 23 Pg C could be sequestered in forests over the next 20 years. Overall, our results indicate that forestry is not an efficient stopgap measure for long-term policy goals, but that it is instead an important longterm partner with other mitigation options.
Genetic susceptibility testing for beryllium: Worker knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes
Authors: Silver Ken , Kukulka Gary , Gorniewicz John , Rayman Kathleen , Sharp Richard
Published: May 2011

Background

We sought to gain insight into workers' knowledge, beliefs, and attitudes on the subject of testing for genetic susceptibility to beryllium.

Methods

Five focus groups were held with 30 current and former beryllium workers and nine family members. Audio recordings were transcribed and assessed by hierarchical coding using an inductive approach.

Results

Some workers were unclear about the distinction between genotoxicity and heritability. A key finding is that they perceived the benefits of a positive test result to be related to enhanced autonomous decision‐making. The major concern cited by participants was potential abuse of genetic information by employers. Complete financial separation of a prospective testing entity from the employer was seen as crucial.

Conclusions

A window of opportunity exists to create regional partnerships for translational research on genetic susceptibility testing. Such partnerships would involve labor, management, public health scientists, primary care professionals, and other stakeholders. They would be critical to identifying testing strategies that maximize worker autonomy along with the public health advantages of genetic testing. Am. J. Ind. Med. 54:521–532, 2011. © 2011 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.
Primate population dynamics over 32.9 years at Ngogo, Kibale National Park, Uganda
Authors: Lwanga J.S. , Struhsaker T.T. , Struhsaker P.J. , Butynski T.M. , Mitani J.C.
Published: May 2011

We present census data for eight primate species spanning 32.9 years along the same transect at Ngogo, Kibale National Park, Uganda, demonstrating major changes in the composition of the primate community. Correlated with an estimated decline of ∼89% in the red colobus population was an increase in encounter rates with chimpanzee parties. Our data, along with the unusually high rates of predation by chimpanzees on red colobus at Ngogo and the fact that the chimpanzee community at Ngogo is the largest ever recorded, support the conclusion that the red colobus decline was caused primarily by chimpanzee predation. This seems to be the first documented case of predation by one nonhuman primate causing the population decline in another. We evaluated disease and interspecific competition as other possible causes of the red colobus decline, but judged them to be relatively insignificant compared with predation by chimpanzees. Notable changes in encounter rates with other primate species may have resulted from forest expansion. Those for mangabeys, redtails, and black and white colobus increased significantly. Encounter rates increased for l'Hoest's monkeys too, but the increased sightings may have been an artifact of increased habituation. Sightings of blue monkey and baboon groups declined. There was no significant change in encounter rates for all species combined. The Ngogo primate community seemed to be in a nonequilibrium state, changing from one dominated by two species, a folivore (red colobus) and a frugivorous omnivore (redtails), to one dominated by three species of frugivorous omnivores (redtails, mangabeys, and chimpanzees). This study demonstrates the importance of long‐term monitoring in understanding population dynamics and the role of intrinsic variables in shaping the species composition of a community. Am. J. Primatol. 73:997–1011, 2011. © 2011 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.