bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Interest Rate Swaps and Corporate Financing Choices
Authors: TITMAN SHERIDAN
Published: April 2012

This paper describes the firm's decision to borrow short‐term versus long‐term and shows how the introduction of interest rate swaps affects this choice. The model shows that in the absence of a swap market, interest rate uncertainty can lead firms to substitute long‐term for short‐term financing. However, when swaps exist, there is a tendency for firms that expect their credit quality to improve to borrow short‐term and use swaps to hedge interest rate risk. The model suggests that, while the demand for fixed for floating swaps is enhanced, the demand for floating for fixed swaps is reduced by the presence of asymmetric information.
Underwriter Compensation and Corporate Monitoring
Authors: HANSEN ROBERT S. , TORREGROSA PAUL
Published: April 2012

Studies suggest that underwriting syndicates provide marketing services and certify the fairness of offer prices. We argue that syndicate lead banks also monitor manager effort, increasing the value of capital‐raising companies. A given level of monitoring is associated with a given level of intrinsic value, so there is a “schedule” of certifiable offer prices, depending on the level of monitoring. Monitoring, marketing, and certification are, therefore, all legitimate syndicate functions. New evidence supporting the conclusion that syndicates provide corporate monitoring is presented.
Stock Returns, Real Activity, and the Trust Question
Authors: BITTLINGMAYER GEORGE
Published: April 2012

Periodic antitrust attacks on corporations may have influenced stock prices. For the period 1904 to 1944, each antitrust case filed is associated with a 0.5 to 1.9 percent drop of the Dow, and each unexpected case with even larger drops. Other aspects of antitrust besides actual filings may help account for other movements, in particular the 1929 Crash. Historical evidence bears on the question of whether antitrust is exogenous and also links antitrust and the “corporation problem.” These results illustrate the sorts of real factors aside from changes in concurrent output that may account for stock price volatility.
Simple Technical Trading Rules and the Stochastic Properties of Stock Returns
Authors: BROCK WILLIAM , LAKONISHOK JOSEF , LeBARON BLAKE
Published: April 2012

This paper tests two of the simplest and most popular trading rules—moving average and trading range break—by utilizing the Dow Jones Index from 1897 to 1986. Standard statistical analysis is extended through the use of bootstrap techniques. Overall, our results provide strong support for the technical strategies. The returns obtained from these strategies are not consistent with four popular null models: the random walk, the AR(1), the GARCH‐M, and the Exponential GARCH. Buy signals consistently generate higher returns than sell signals, and further, the returns following buy signals are less volatile than returns following sell signals, and further, the returns following buy signals are less volatile than returns following sell signals. Moreover, returns following sell signals are negative, which is not easily explained by any of the currently existing equilibrium models.
Trading Halts and Market Activity: An Analysis of Volume at the Open and the Close
Authors: GERETY MASON S. , MULHERIN J. HAROLD
Published: April 2012

This paper analyzes how the daily opening and closing of financial markets affect trading volume. We model the desire to trade at the beginning and end of the day as a function of overnight return volatility. NYSE data from 1933–88 indicate that closing volume is positively related to expected overnight volatility, while volume at the open is positively related to both expected and unexpected volatility from the previous night. We interpret the symmetric response of trading at the open and the close to expected volatility as being due to investor heterogeneities in the ability to bear risk when the market is closed. This desire of investors to trade prior to market closings indicates a cost of mandating marketwide circuit breakers.
When Will Mean‐Variance Efficient Portfolios Be Well Diversified?
Authors: GREEN RICHARD C. , HOLLIFIELD BURTON
Published: April 2012

We characterize the conditions under which efficient portfolios put small weights on individual assets. These conditions bound mean returns with measures of average absolute covariability between assets. The bounds clarify the relationship between linear asset pricing models and well‐diversified efficient portfolios. We argue that the extreme weightings in sample efficient portfolios are due to the dominance of a single factor in equity returns. This makes it easy to diversify on subsets to reduce residual risk, while weighting the subsets to reduce factor risk simultaneously. The latter involves taking extreme positions. This behavior seems unlikely to be attributable to sampling error.
Measuring the Agency Cost of Debt
Authors: MELLO ANTONIO S. , PARSONS JOHN E.
Published: April 2012

We adapt a contingent claims model of the firm to reflect the incentive effects of the capital structure and thereby to measure the agency costs of debt. An underlying model of the firm and the stochastic features of its product market are analyzed and an optimal operating policy is chosen. We identify the change in operating policy created by leverage and value this change. The model determines the value of the firm and its associated liabilities incorporating the agency consequences of debt.
Option Valuation with Systematic Stochastic Volatility
Authors: AMIN KAUSHIK I. , NG VICTOR K.
Published: April 2012

We use an extension of the equilibrium framework of Rubinstein (1976) and Brennan (1979) to derive an option valuation formula when the stock return volatility is both stochastic and systematic. Our formula incorporates a stochastic volatility process as well as a stochastic interest rate process in the valuation of options. If the “mean,” volatility, and “covariance” processes for the stock return and the consumption growth are predictable, our option valuation formula can be written in “preference‐free” form. Further, many popular option valuation formulae in the literature can be written as special cases of our general formula.
Top‐Management Compensation and Capital Structure
Authors: JOHN TERESA A. , JOHN KOSE
Published: April 2012

The interrelationship between top‐management compensation and the design and mix of external claims issued by a firm is studied. The optimal managerial compensation structures depend on not only the agency relationship between shareholders and management, but also the conflicts of interests which arise in the other contracting relationships for which the firm serves as a nexus. We analyze in detail the optimal management compensation for the cases when the external claims are (1) equity and risky debt, and (2) equity and convertible debt. In addition to the role of aligning managerial incentives with shareholder interests, managerial compensation in a levered firm also serves as a precommitment device to minimize the agency costs of debt. The optimal management compensation derived has low pay‐performance sensitivity. With convertible debt, instead of straight debt, the corresponding optimal managerial compensation has high pay‐to‐performance sensitivity. A negative relationship between pay‐performance sensitivity and leverage is derived. Our results provide a reconciliation of the puzzling evidence of Jensen and Murphy (1990) with agency theory. Other testable implications include (1) a relationship between the risk premium in corporate bond yields and top‐management compensation structures, and (2) the announcement effect of adoption of executive stock option plans on bond prices. The model yields implications for management compensation in banks and Federal Deposit Insurance reform. Our results explain the dynamics of top‐management compensation in firms going through financial distress and reorganization.
Long‐Term Market Overreaction or Biases in Computed Returns?
Authors: CONRAD JENNIFER , KAUL GAUTAM
Published: April 2012

We show that the returns to the typical long‐term contrarian strategy implemented in previous studies are upwardly biased because they are calculated by cumulating single‐period (monthly) returns over long intervals. The cumulation process not only cumulates “true” returns but also the upward bias in single‐period returns induced by measurement errors. We also show that the remaining “true” returns to loser or winner firms have no relation to overreaction. This study has important implications for event studies that use cumulative returns to assess the impact of information events.
General Tests of Latent Variable Models and Mean‐Variance Spanning
Authors: FERSON WAYNE E. , FOERSTER STEPHEN R. , KEIM DONALD B.
Published: April 2012

The methods of Gibbons and Ferson (1985) are extended, relaxing the assumption that expected returns are linear functions of predetermined instruments. A model of conditional mean‐variance spanning generalizes Huberman and Kandel (1987). The empirical results indicate that more than a single risk premium is needed to model expected stock and bond returns, but the number of common factors in the expected returns is small. However, when size‐based common stock portfolios proxy for the risk factors, we reject the hypothesis that four of them describe the conditional expected returns of the other assets.
Variations in Trading Volume, Return Volatility, and Trading Costs: Evidence on Recent Price Formation Models
Authors: FOSTER F. DOUGLAS , VISWANATHAN S.
Published: April 2012

Patterns in stock market trading volume, trading costs, and return volatility are examined using New York Stock Exchange data from 1988. Intraday test results indicate that, for actively traded firms trading volume, adverse selection costs, and return volatility are higher in the first half‐hour of the day. This evidence is inconsistent with the Admati and Pfleiderer (1988) model which predicts that trading costs are low when volume and return volatility are high. Interday test results show that, for actively traded firms, trading volume is low and adverse selection costs are high on Monday, which is consistent with the predictions of the Foster and Viswanathan (1990) model.
Trading and Manipulation Around Seasoned Equity Offerings
Authors: GERARD BRUNO , NANDA VIKRAM
Published: April 2012

We investigate the potential for manipulation due to the interaction between secondary market trading prior to a seasoned equity offering (SO) and the pricing of the offering. Informed traders acting strategically may attempt to manipulate offering prices by selling shares prior to the SO, and profit subsequently from lower prices in the offering. The model predicts increased selling prior to a SO, leading to increases in the market maker's inventory and temporary price decreases. Further, since manipulation conceals information, the ratio of temporary to permanent components of the price movements is predicted to increase.
Defaults of Original Issue High‐Yield Convertible Bonds
Authors: ROSENGREN ERIC S.
Published: April 2012

Recent studies using aging analysis have found high rates of default for rated, nonconvertible high‐yield bonds. This paper examines the remainder of the market and concludes that rated and nonrated convertible high‐yield bonds had significantly lower default rates. It also provides some evidence that nonrated, nonconvertible securities may have lower default rates. Even after controlling for issue size and coupon rates in a logit model, these differences remain statistically significant.
A Simple Measure of Price Adjustment Coefficients
Authors: DAMODARAN ASWATH
Published: April 2012

One measure of market efficiency is the speed with which prices adjust to new information. We develop a simple approach to estimating these price adjustment coefficients by using the information in return processes. This approach is used to estimate the price adjustment coefficients for firms listed on the NYSE and the AMEX as well as for over‐the‐counter stocks. We find evidence of a lagged adjustment to new information in shorter return intervals for firms in all market value classes, and some support for the proposition that prices adjust much more slowly and with more noise for smaller firms.
A General Equilibrium Model of International Portfolio Choice
Authors: UPPAL RAMAN
Published: April 2012

We investigate, in a two‐country general equilibrium model, whether a bias in consumption towards domestic goods will necessarily lead to a preference for domestic securities. We develop a model where investors are constrained to consume only from their domestic capital stock and where it is costly to transfer capital across countries. In this model, investors less risk averse than an investor with log utility bias their portfolios towards domestic assets. Investors more risk averse than log, however, prefer foreign assets. Thus, this model suggests that it is unlikely that the portfolios observed empirically can be explained by the high proportion of domestic goods in total consumption.
A Semiautoregression Approach to the Arbitrage Pricing Theory
Authors: MEI JIANPING
Published: April 2012

This paper developes a semiautoregression (SAR) approach to estimate factors of the arbitrage pricing theory (APT) that has the advantage of providing a simple asymptotic variance‐covariance matrix for the factor estimates, which makes it easy to adjust for measurement errors. Using the extracted factors, I confirm the finding that the APT describes asset returns slightly better than the CAPM, although there is still some mispricing in the APT model. I find that not only are the factors “priced” by the market, but the factor premiums move over time in relation to business cycle variables.
Testing the Predictive Power of Dividend Yields
Authors: GOETZMANN WILLIAM N. , JORION PHILIPPE
Published: April 2012

This paper reexamines the ability of dividend yields to predict long‐horizon stock returns. We use the bootstrap methodology, as well as simulations, to examine the distribution of test statistics under the null hypothesis of no forecasting ability. These experiments are constructed so as to maintain the dynamics of regressions with lagged dependent variables over long horizons. We find that the empirically observed statistics are well within the 95% bounds of their simulated distributions. Overall there is no strong statistical evidence indicating that dividend yields can be used to forecast stock returns.
Calls of Warrants: Timing and Market Reaction
Authors: SCHULTZ PAUL
Published: April 2012

This paper examines the timing of, and reaction to, calls of callable warrants. Three main findings emerge. First, unlike convertible bonds or preferred stock, callable warrants are called almost as soon as possible. Second, there is a negative price reaction of about 3 percent when a call is announced. Finally, at the completion of a call, the stock price rebounds by an average of 7 percent. The total reaction from announcement through completion of the call is a positive excess return of about 4 percent.
Information, Ownership Structure, and Shareholder Voting: Evidence from Shareholder‐Sponsored Corporate Governance Proposals
Authors: GORDON LILLI A. , POUND JOHN
Published: April 2012

This paper examines how information and ownership structure affect voting outcomes on shareholder‐sponsored proposals to change corporate governance structure. We find that the outcomes of votes vary systematically with the governance and performance records of target firms, the identity of proposal sponsors, and the type of proposal. We also find that outcomes vary significantly as a function of ownership by insiders, institutions, outside blockholders, ESOPs, and outside directors who are blockholders. These results suggest that both public information and ownership structure have a significant influence on voting outcomes.
A Test for the Number of Factors in an Approximate Factor Model
Authors: CONNOR GREGORY , KORAJCZYK ROBERT A.
Published: April 2012

An important issue in applications of multifactor models of asset returns is the appropriate number of factors. Most extant tests for the number of factors are valid only for strict factor models, in which diversifiable returns are uncorrelated across assets. In this paper we develop a test statistic to determine the number of factors in an approximate factor model of asset returns, which does not require that diversifiable components of returns be uncorrelated across assets. We find evidence for one to six pervasive factors in the cross‐section of New York Stock Exchange and American Stock Exchange stock returns.
Security Design
Authors: BOOT ARNOUD W. A. , THAKOR ANJAN V.
Published: April 2012

We explain why an issuer may wish to raise external capital by selling multiple financial claims that partition its total asset cash flows, rather than a single claim. We show that, in an asymmetric information environment, the issuer's expected revenue is enhanced by such cash flow partitioning because it makes informed trade more profitable. This approach seems capable of shedding light on corporate incentives to issue debt and equity, as well as on financial intermediaries' incentives to issue multiple classes of claims against portfolios of securitized assets.
Crowding Out and the Informativeness of Security Prices
Authors: PAUL JONATHAN M.
Published: April 2012

Individual investors trade less agressively on any particular piece of information as more investors observe it. The trades of the new investors observing a piece of information “crowd out” some of the trades of the old investors who observe that same piece of information. This paper shows that when traders are risk averse, these crowding out effects lead the proportions of traders who choose to observe one signal versus another to differ from the proportions that maximize the informativeness of prices.
Issue Size Choice and “Underpricing” in Thrift Mutual‐to‐Stock Conversions
Authors: MAKSIMOVIC VOJISLAV , UNAL HALUK
Published: April 2012

Issue size choice and underpricing in mutual‐to‐stock conversions of thrifts are explained as a function of growth opportunities, perquisite consumption, and proprietary information. We provide evidence that thrifts with greater growth opportunities choose larger issue size and experience higher after‐market price appreciation. This finding persists when we allow for investors' inferences about managers' proprietary information. Variables that explain underpricing in typical initial public offerings are significant by themselves but lose significance when combined with the issue size choice variables. Managerial holdings and the offer price do not act as dissipative signals of value in thrift conversions.
On the Relation between the Expected Value and the Volatility of the Nominal Excess Return on Stocks
Authors: GLOSTEN LAWRENCE R. , JAGANNATHAN RAVI , RUNKLE DAVID E.
Published: April 2012

We find support for a negative relation between conditional expected monthly return and conditional variance of monthly return, using a GARCH‐M model modified by allowing (1) seasonal patterns in volatility, (2) positive and negative innovations to returns having different impacts on conditional volatility, and (3) nominal interest rates to predict conditional variance. Using the modified GARCH‐M model, we also show that monthly conditional volatility may not be as persistent as was thought. Positive unanticipated returns appear to result in a downward revision of the conditional volatility whereas negative unanticipated returns result in an upward revision of conditional volatility.
Currency Hedging for International Portfolios
Authors: GLEN JACK , JORION PHILIPPE
Published: April 2012

This paper examines the benefits from currency hedging, both for speculative and risk minimization motives, in international bond and equity portfolios. The risk‐return performances of globally diversified portfolios are compared with and without forward contracts. Over the period 1974 to 1990, inclusion of forward contracts results in statistically significant improvements in the performance of unconditional portfolios containing bonds. Conditional strategies are also implemented, both in sample and out of sample, and are shown to both significantly improve the risk‐return tradeoff of global portfolios and to outperform unconditional hedging strategies.
Option Valuation and Hedging Strategies with Jumps in the Volatility of Asset Returns
Authors: NAIK VASANTTILAK
Published: April 2012

We develop a model in which the volatility of risky assets is subject to random and discontinuous shifts over time. We derive prices of claims contingent on such assets and analyze options‐based trading strategies to hedge against the risk of jumps in the return volatility. Unsystematic and systematic events such as takeovers, major changes in business plans, or shifts in economic policy regimes may drastically alter firms' risk profiles. Our model captures the effect of such events on options markets.
The Determinants of Leveraged Buyout Activity: Free Cash Flow vs. Financial Distress Costs
Authors: OPLER TIM , TITMAN SHERIDAN
Published: April 2012

This paper investigates the determinants of leveraged buyout (LBO) activity by comparing firms that have implemented LBOs to those that have not. Consistent with the free cash flow theory, we find that firms that initiate LBOs can be characterized as having a combination of unfavorable investment opportunities (low Tobin's q) and relatively high cash flow. LBO firms also tend to be more diversified than firms which do not undertake LBOs. In addition, firms with high expected costs of financial distress (e.g., those with high research and development expenditures) are less likely to do LBOs.
Implied Binomial Trees
Authors: RUBINSTEIN MARK
Published: April 2012

This article develops a new method for inferring risk‐neutral probabilities (or state‐contingent prices) from the simultaneously observed prices of European options. These probabilities are then used to infer a unique fully specified recombining binomial tree that is consistent with these probabilities (and, hence, consistent with all the observed option prices). A simple backwards recursive procedure solves for the entire tree. From the standpoint of the standard binomial option pricing model, which implies a limiting risk‐neutral lognormal distribution for the underlying asset, the approach here provides the natural (and probably the simplest) way to generalize to arbitrary ending risk‐neutral probability distributions.
The Impact of Public Information on the Stock Market
Authors: MITCHELL MARK L. , MULHERIN J. HAROLD
Published: April 2012

We study the relation between the number of news announcements reported daily by Dow Jones & Company and aggregate measures of securities market activity including trading volume and market returns. We find that the number of Dow Jones announcements and market activity are directly related and that the results are robust to the addition of factors previously found to influence financial markets such as day‐of‐the‐week dummy variables, news importance as proxied by large New York Times headlines and major macroeconomic announcements, and noninformation sources of market activity as measured by dividend capture and triple witching trading. However, the observed relation between news and market activity is not particularly strong and the patterns in news announcements do not explain the day‐of‐the‐week seasonalities in market activity. Our analysis of the Dow Jones database confirms the difficulty of linking volume and volatility to observed measures of information.
Interactions of Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions: A Dynamic Framework
Authors: MAUER DAVID C. , TRIANTIS ALEXANDER J.
Published: April 2012

This article analyzes the interaction between a firm's dynamic investment, operating, and financing decisions in a model with operating adjustment and recapitalization costs. Using numerical analysis, we solve the model for cases that highlight interaction effects. We find that higher production flexibility (due to lower costs of shutting down and reopening a production facility) enhances the firm's debt capacity, thereby increasing the net tax shield value of debt financing. While higher financial flexibility (resulting from lower recapitalization costs) has a similar effect, production flexibility and financial flexibility are, to some extent, substitutes. We find that the impact of debt financing on the firm's investment and operating decisions is economically insignificant.
Exploiting the Conditional Density in Estimating the Term Structure: An Application to the Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross Model
Authors: PEARSON NEIL D. , SUN TONG‐SHENG
Published: April 2012

We propose an empirical method that utilizes the conditional density of the state variables to estimate and test a term structure model with known price formulae, using data on both discount and coupon bonds. The method is applied to an extension of a two‐factor model due to Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (1985; CIR). Our results show that estimates based on only bills imply unreasonably large price errors for longer maturities. We reject the original CIR model using a likelihood ratio test, and conclude that the extended CIR model also fails to provide a good description of the Treasury market.
Public Information Arrival
Authors: BERRY THOMAS D. , HOWE KEITH M.
Published: April 2012

We develop a measure of public information flow to financial markets and use it to document the patterns of information arrival, with an emphasis on the intraday flows. The measure is the number of news releases by Reuter's News Service per unit of time. We find that public information arrival is nonconstant, displaying seasonalities and distinct intraday patterns. Next we relate our measure of public information to aggregate measures of intraday market activity. Our results suggest a positive, moderate relationship between public information and trading volume, but an insignificant relationship with price volatility.
Signaling and Takeover Deterrence with Stock Repurchases: Dutch Auctions versus Fixed Price Tender Offers
Authors: PERSONS JOHN C.
Published: April 2012

This article presents a model of repurchase tender offers in which firms choose between the Dutch auction method and the fixed price method. Dutch auction repurchases are more effective takeover deterrents, while fixed price repurchases are more effective signals of undervaluation. The model yields empirical implications regarding price effects of repurchases, likelihood of takeover, managerial compensation, and cross‐sectional differences in the elasticity of the supply curve for shares.
The Effect of Bankruptcy Protection on Investment: Chapter 11 as a Screening Device
Authors: MOORADIAN ROBERT M.
Published: April 2012

Asymmetric information and conflicts of interest between equity and debt holders can force a distressed but efficient firm to liquidate and may enable a distressed inefficient firm to continue. In the extreme, if it is costless for an inefficient firm to mimic an efficient firm in a debt restructuring, efficient and inefficient firms are equally likely to continue or liquidate. This article shows that Chapter 11 procedures impose costs on inefficient firms that would otherwise mimic efficient firms. This separation induces voluntary filing for bankruptcy by inefficient firms and consequently enables efficient firms to continue when they would otherwise be liquidated.
The Role of ESOPs in Takeover Contests
Authors: CHAPLINSKY SUSAN , NIEHAUS GREG
Published: April 2012

This article examines both the shareholder wealth effects of employee stock ownership plans (ESOPs) announced by firms subject to takeover pressure and the takeover incidence of targets with and without ESOPs. Although we do not find that defensive ESOPs significantly reduce shareholder wealth on average, we identify two factors—the change in managerial and employee ownership due to the ESOP and the simultaneous announcement of other defensive tactics—that are associated with negative stock price reactions. We find that ESOPs are strong deterrents to takeover. ESOP targets that are acquired earn higher returns than targets without ESOPs, but the difference is not statistically significant.
Trading Volume and Transaction Costs in Specialist Markets
Authors: GEORGE THOMAS J. , KAUL GAUTAM , NIMALENDRAN M.
Published: April 2012

Prior work with competitive rational expectations equilibrium models indicates that there should be a positive relation between trading volume and differences in beliefs or information among traders. We show that this result is sensitive to whether and how transaction costs are modeled. In a specialist market with endogenous transaction costs we show that trading volume can be negatively related to the degree of informational asymmetry in the market. Our analysis highlights the dependence of volume on market structure, and our results suggest that the “volume effects” of corporate or macroeconomic events reflect a decrease, rather than an increase, in heterogeneity of beliefs or asymmetry of information.
The Benefits of Lending Relationships: Evidence from Small Business Data
Authors: PETERSEN MITCHELL A. , RAJAN RAGHURAM G.
Published: April 2012

This paper empirically examines how ties between a firm and its creditors affect the availability and cost of funds to the firm. We analyze data collected in a survey of small firms by the Small Business Administration. The primary benefit of building close ties with an institutional creditor is that the availability of financing increases. We find smaller effects on the price of credit. Attempts to widen the circle of relationships by borrowing from multiple lenders increases the price and reduces the availability of credit. In sum, relationships are valuable and appear to operate more through quantities rather than prices.
The Effect of a Rating Downgrade on Outstanding Commercial Paper
Authors: CRABBE LELAND , POST MITCHELL A.
Published: April 2012

Diamond (1991) argues that a firm's reputation determines whether it borrows directly or through an intermediary. We test the Diamond model by examining the quantity response of commercial paper issued by bank holding companies to a rating downgrade. From 1986 to 1991, cumulative abnormal declines averaged 6.69 percent in the first two weeks after the downgrade and 11.05 percent in the subsequent 12 weeks. In contrast to commercial paper issued by bank holding companies, large CDs issued by affiliated banks did not change significantly in the period around a downgrade, suggesting that deposit insurance may have removed market discipline from the CD market.
Mortgage Redlining: Race, Risk, and Demand
Authors: HOLMES ANDREW , HORVITZ PAUL
Published: April 2012

Charges that geographical redlining is widely practiced by mortgage lenders and is associated with racial discrimination have received much attention. However, empirical research in this area has yet to document a convincing answer to the question of whether redlining even exists. Much of the previous research in this area has suffered from failure to account for variations in risk, and/or failure to adequately control for geographical differences in demand. This study addresses these problems in an effort to determine whether the disparity in the flow of mortgage credit can be explained by differences in risk and demand.
The Effect of Dividend Changes on Stock and Bond Prices
Authors: DHILLON UPINDER S. , JOHNSON HERB
Published: April 2012

This study examines stock and bond price reactions to dividend changes. The positive stock market response to dividend increases has several potential explanations, two of the more commonly discussed being information content and wealth redistribution between stockholders and bondholders. The evidence presented supports the wealth redistribution hypothesis but does not rule out the information content hypothesis. Typically we find that the bond price reaction to announcements of large dividend changes is opposite to the stock price reaction. Our results differ from those of Handjinicolaou and Kalay.
The Interaction between Nonexpected Utility and Asymmetric Market Fundamentals
Authors: HUNG MAO‐WEI
Published: April 2012

This paper studies a nonexpected utility, general equilibrium asset pricing model in which market fundamentals follow a bivariate Markov switching process. The results show that nonexpected utility is capable of exactly matching the means of the risk‐free rate and the risk premium. Asymmetric market fundamentals are capable of generating a negative sample correlation between the risk‐free rate and the risk premium. Moreover, an equilibrium asset pricing model endowed with asymmetric market fundamentals is consistent with all five first and second moments of the risk‐free rate and the risk premium in the U.S. data.
Parameter‐based Decision Making under Estimation Risk: An Application to Futures Trading
Authors: LENCE SERGIO H. , HAYES DERMOT J.
Published: April 2012

This study shows how the standard portfolio model of futures trading should be modified when there is less than perfect information about the relevant parameters (estimation risk). The standard and the optimal decision rules for futures trading in the presence of estimation risk are compared and discussed. An operational model of futures trading for use under estimation risk is advanced. In the presence of relevant prior and sample information, the model can be used to optimally blend both types of information.
The Cross‐Section of Realized Stock Returns: The Pre‐COMPUSTAT Evidence
Authors: DAVIS JAMES L.
Published: April 2012

Using a database that is free of survivorship bias, this article finds that book‐to‐market equity, earnings yield, and cash flow yield have significant explanatory power with respect to the cross‐section of realized stock returns during the period from July 1940 through June 1963. There is a strong January seasonal in the explanatory power of these variables, even though small stocks are, by construction, excluded from the sample.
Industry Returns and the Fisher Effect
Authors: BOUDOUKH JACOB , RICHARDSON MATTHEW , WHITELAW ROBERT F.
Published: April 2012

We investigate the cross‐sectional relation between industry‐sorted stock returns and expected inflation, and we find that this relation is linked to cyclical movements in industry output. Stock returns of noncyclical industries tend to covary positively with expected inflation, while the reverse holds for cyclical industries. From a theoretical perspective, we describe a model that captures both (i) the cross‐sectional variation in these relations across industries, and (ii) the negative and positive relation between stock returns and inflation at short and long horizons, respectively. The model is developed in an economic environment in which the spirit of the Fisher model is preserved.
Why Did NASDAQ Market Makers Stop Avoiding Odd‐Eighth Quotes?
Authors: CHRISTIE WILLIAM G. , HARRIS JEFFREY H. , SCHULTZ PAUL H.
Published: April 2012

On May 26 and 27, 1994 several national newspapers reported the findings of Christie and Schultz (1994) who cannot reject the hypothesis that market makers of active NASDAQ stocks implicitly colluded to maintain spreads of at least $0.25 by avoiding odd‐eighth quotes. On May 27, dealers in Amgen, Cisco Systems, and Microsoft sharply increased their use of odd‐eighth quotes, and mean inside and effective spreads fell nearly 50 percent. This pattern was repeated for Apple Computer the following trading day. Using individual dealer quotes for Apple and Microsoft, we find that virtually all dealers moved in unison to adopt odd‐eighth quotes.
Explorations Into Factors Explaining Money Market Returns
Authors: KNEZ PETER J. , LITTERMAN ROBERT , SCHEINKMAN JOSÉ
Published: April 2012

In this article, we measure and interpret the common “factors” that describe money market returns. Results are presented for both three‐and four‐factor models. We find that the three‐factor model explains, on average, 86 percent of the total variation in most money market returns while the four‐factor model explains, on average, 90 percent of this variation. Using mimicking portfolios, we provide an interpretation of the systematic risks represented by these factors.
Managers, Owners, and The Pricing of Risky Debt: An Empirical Analysis
Authors: BAGNANI ELIZABETH STROCK , MILONAS NIKOLAOS T. , SAUNDERS ANTHONY , TRAVLOS NICKOLAOS G.
Published: April 2012

This article examines managerial ownership structure and return premia on corporate bonds. It is argued that when managerial ownership is low, an increase in managerial ownership increases management's incentives to increase stockholder wealth at the expense of bondholder wealth. When ownership increases more, however, it is argued that management becomes more risk averse, with incentives more closely aligned with bondholders. This study finds a positive relation between managerial ownership and bond return premia in the low to medium (5 to 25 percent) ownership range. There is also weak evidence for a nonpositive relation in the large (over 25 percent) ownership range.
Mean Reversion of Standard & Poor's 500 Index Basis Changes: Arbitrage‐induced or Statistical Illusion?
Authors: MILLER MERTON H. , MUTHUSWAMY JAYARAM , WHALEY ROBERT E.
Published: April 2012

Mean reversion in stock index basis changes has been presumed to be driven by the trading activity of stock index arbitragers. We propose here instead that the observed negative autocorrelation in basis changes is mainly a statistical illusion, arising because many stocks in the index portfolio trade infrequently. Even without formal arbitrage, reported basis changes would appear negatively autocorrelated as lagging stocks eventually trade and get updated. The implications of this study go beyond index arbitrage, however. Our analysis suggests that spurious elements may creep in whenever the price‐change or return series of two securities or portfolios of securities are differenced.
Time Variations and Covariations in the Expectation and Volatility of Stock Market Returns
Authors: WHITELAW ROBERT F.
Published: April 2012

This article investigates empirically the comovements of the conditional mean and volatility of stock returns. It extends the results in the literature by demonstrating the role of the commercial paper—Treasury yield spread in predicting time variation in volatility. The conditional mean and volatility exhibit an asymmetric relation, which contrasts with the contemporaneous relation that has been tested previously. The volatility leads the expected return, and this time series relation is documented using offset correlations, short‐horizon contemporaneous correlations, and a vector autoregression. These results bring into question the value of modeling expected returns as a constant function of conditional volatility.
On Stock Market Returns and Returns on Investment
Authors: RESTOY FERNANDO , ROCKINGER G. MICHAEL
Published: April 2012

This article presents general conditions under which it is possible to obtain asset pricing relations from the intertemporal optimal investment decision of the firm. Under the assumption of linear homogeneous production and adjustment cost functions (the Hayashi (1982) conditions), it is possible to establish, state by state, the equality between the return on investment and the market return of the financial claims issued by the firm. This result proves to be, in essence, robust to the consideration of very general constraints on investment and the inclusion of taxes.
A Characterization of the Daily and Intraday Behavior of Returns on Options
Authors: SHEIKH AAMIR M. , RONN EHUD I.
Published: April 2012

The daily and intraday behavior of returns on Chicago Board Options Exchange options is examined. Option returns contain systematic patterns even after adjusting for patterns in the means and variances of the underlying assets. This is consistent with the hypothesis that informed trading in options can make the order flow in the options market informative about the value of the underlying asset, making options nonredundant. The intraday patterns in adjusted option return variances are further consistent with a model of strategic trading by informed and discretionary liquidity traders.
The Spinoff and Merger Ex‐Date Effects
Authors: VIJH ANAND M.
Published: April 2012

This article shows that some of the wealth gains from financial decisions involving changes in security form occur on predictable ex dates. For a sample of 113 spinoffs during 1964 to 90, we document an average excess return of 3.0 percent on ex dates, roughly the same magnitude as the average announcement‐date return. We conjecture that the spinoff ex‐date return arises because the parent and subsidiary stocks attract different investors who prefer to buy the separated shares after the ex date. We also document that, on average, the target shareholders in stock‐for‐stock mergers earn an excess return of 1.5 percent on merger ex dates.
Relative Significance of Journals, Authors, and Articles Cited in Financial Research
Authors: ALEXANDER JOHN C. , MABRY RODNEY H.
Published: April 2012

We evaluate journals based on their relative contributions to top‐level finance research in a recent period. Journals are ranked according to the number of citations found in articles published in Journal of Finance, Journal of Financial Economics, Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, and Review of Financial Studies. The analysis controls for both the average number of articles and average number of words published annually in each cited journal. We identify the fifty most frequently cited journals during this period. We also list the fifty most frequently cited authors and articles and note topical trends in the research.
A Simple Approach to Valuing Risky Fixed and Floating Rate Debt
Authors: LONGSTAFF FRANCIS A. , SCHWARTZ EDUARDO S.
Published: April 2012

We develop a simple approach to valuing risky corporate debt that incorporates both default and interest rate risk. We use this approach to derive simple closed‐form valuation expressions for fixed and floating rate debt. The model provides a number of interesting new insights about pricing and hedging corporate debt securities. For example, we find that the correlation between default risk and the interest rate has a significant effect on the properties of the credit spread. Using Moody's corporate bond yield data, we find that credit spreads are negatively related to interest rates and that durations of risky bonds depend on the correlation with interest rates. This empirical evidence is consistent with the implications of the valuation model.
The Priority Structure of Corporate Liabilities
Authors: BARCLAY MICHAEL J. , SMITH CLIFFORD W.
Published: April 2012

Most discussions of corporate capital structure effectively assume that all debt is the same. Yet debt differs by maturity, covenant restrictions, conversion rights, call provisions, and priority. Here, we examine priority structure across a sample of 4995 COMPUSTAT industrial firms from 1981 to 1991. We analyze the variation in the use of capital leases, secured debt, ordinary debt, subordinated debt, and preferred stock both as a fraction of the firm's market value and as a fraction of total fixed claims. Our evidence provides consistent support for contracting cost hypotheses, mixed support for tax hypotheses, and little support for the signaling hypothesis.
Fundamental Economic Variables, Expected Returns, and Bond Fund Performance
Authors: ELTON EDWIN J. , GRUBER MARTIN J. , BLAKE CHRISTOPHER R.
Published: April 2012

In this article, we develop relative pricing (APT) models that are successful in explaining expected returns in the bond market. We utilize indexes as well as unanticipated changes in economic variables as factors driving security returns. An innovation in this article is the measurement of the economic factors as changes in forecasts. The return indexes are the most important variables in explaining the time series of returns. However, the addition of the economic variables leads to a large improvement in the explanation of the cross‐section of expected returns. We utilize our relative pricing models to examine the performance of bond funds.
Convertible Bonds Are Not Called Late
Authors: ASQUITH PAUL
Published: April 2012

Starting with Ingersoll (1977b), the academic literature has repeatedly sought to explain why convertible bonds are called late. The findings here demonstrate there is no call delay to explain. This paper finds that most convertible bonds, given their call protection, are called as soon as possible. For those that are not, there are significant cash flow advantages to delaying. The median call delay for all convertible bonds is less than four months. If a safety premium is desired to assure the conversion value will exceed the call price at the end of call notice period, the median call period is less than a month.
Did J. P. Morgan's Men Add Liquidity? Corporate Investment, Cash Flow, and Financial Structure at the Turn of the Twentieth Century
Authors: RAMIREZ CARLOS D.
Published: April 2012

This article presents evidence suggesting that the relationship that existed between the partnership of J. P. Morgan and its client firms partially resolved the latter's external financing problems by diminishing the principal‐agent and asymmetric information problems. I estimate and compare investment regression equations for a sample of Morgan‐affiliated companies and a control group of nonaffiliated companies. The econometric results seem to indicate that companies not affiliated to the House of Morgan were liquidity constrained.
The Effect of Lender Identity on a Borrowing Firm's Equity Return
Authors: BILLETT MATTHEW T. , FLANNERY MARK J. , GARFINKEL JON A.
Published: April 2012

Previous research demonstrates that a firm's common stock price tends to fall when it issues new public securities. By contrast, commercial bank loans elicit significantly positive borrower returns. This article investigates whether the lender's identity influences the market's reaction to a loan announcement. Although we find no significant difference between the market's response to bank and nonbank loans, we do find that lenders with a higher credit rating are associated with larger abnormal borrower returns. This evidence complements earlier findings that an auditor's or investment banker's perceived “quality” signals valuable information about firm value to uninformed market investors.
Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable
Authors: LO ANDREW W. , WANG JIANG
Published: April 2012

The predictability of an asset's returns will affect the prices of options on that asset, even though predictability is typically induced by the drift, which does not enter the option pricing formula. For discretely‐sampled data, predictability is linked to the parameters that do enter the option pricing formula. We construct an adjustment for predictability to the Black‐Scholes formula and show that this adjustment can be important even for small levels of predictability, especially for longer maturity options. We propose several continuous‐time linear diffusion processes that can capture broader forms of predictability, and provide numerical examples that illustrate their importance for pricing options.
Another Look at the Cross‐section of Expected Stock Returns
Authors: KOTHARI S. P. , SHANKEN JAY , SLOAN RICHARD G.
Published: April 2012

Our examination of the cross‐section of expected returns reveals economically and statistically significant compensation (about 6 to 9 percent per annum) for beta risk when betas are estimated from time‐series regressions of annual portfolio returns on the annual return on the equally weighted market index. The relation between book‐to‐market equity and returns is weaker and less consistent than that in Fama and French (1992). We conjecture that past book‐to‐market results using COMPUS‐TAT data are affected by a selection bias and provide indirect evidence.