bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The use of public transportation in urban areas: Toward a causal model
Authors: Mamon Joyce A. , Marshall Harvey
Published: March 2007

In this study, using the statistical models recently introduced by Goodman, we analyze the reasons why individuals choose the car or public transportation for the journey to work and draw out some of the implications of our analysis for public policy. Building on the work of Schnore, we develop a model in which both structural and individual variables are interrelated and show that the structural contexts within which individuals make decisions about their choice are crucial. We also show that, while status differentials are largely accounted for by income differences, male preferences for the automobile tend not to be due either to the structural variables or to income differences. Our findings suggest that present policies designed to induce people to shift to public transportation for the journey to work are not likely to be effective, since they do nothing to alter present cost differentials between the two modes.
Wife’s employment and cumulative family size in the United States, 1970 and 1960
Authors: Weller Robert H.
Published: March 2007

Using a multiple classification analysis of the data from the I percent public-use samples of the 1960 and 1970 censuses of population, it is found that the negative relationship between wives’ employment and their cumulative family size is stronger among whites than nonwhites and is strongest among women married less than 10 years, with 12 or more years of schooling, and who have no relatives living with them. Moreover, although there are many similarities in the pattern of the employment status/fertility relationship between the 1960 and 1970 data, the relationship is weaker in 1970 than in 1960.
The stable equivalent population, age composition, and Fisher’s reproductive value function
Authors: Espenshade Thomas J. , Campbell Gregory
Published: March 2007

This paper deals with a further analysis of the stable equivalent population for human populations. It first shows that the arithmetic difference between the size of the stable equivalent population and the actual population captures the total prospective contribution of age composition to the growth of the present population, if fertility and mortality rates are held constant at their current levels. The second part of the paper examines Fisher’s reproductive value function and investigates the location of maxima in relation to alternative values of the intrinsic growth rate. One conclusion which follows from this analysis is that, contrary to what has been discovered by others in specific examples, the reproductive value function can possess a global maximum in the first one or two years of life, provided the intrinsic rate of population growth is sufficiently negative. This principle is illustrated by reference to reproductive value functions calculated from the recent experience of U.S. females.
Methodological issues underlying multiple decrement life table analysis
Authors: Mode Charles J. , Avery Roger C. , Littman Gary S. , Potter Robert G.
Published: March 2007

In this paper, the actuarial method of multiple decrement life table analysis of censored, longitudinal data is examined. The discussion is organized in terms of the first segment of usage of an intrauterine device. Weaknesses of the actuarial approach are pointed out, and an alternative approach, based on the classical model of competing risks, is proposed. Finally, the actuarial and the alternative method of analyzing censored data are compared, using data from the Taichung Medical Study on Intrauterine Devices.
A new technique for measuring preferences in demographic studies
Authors: Frohardt-Lane Katharine A. , Landis J. Richard , Bruvold William H.
Published: March 2007

In this article, we introduce an alternative technique to the single-sentence question for measuring preferences for number of children, age at marriage, length of first birth interval, length of employment, and years of schooling. This new measurement procedure utilizes a graphic scale rather than verbal responses, and it places family size decisions within the context of several other major life cycle decisions. One month reliability data for the measurement technique were obtained from a sample of 107 school children. Reliability results are compared to data from a previous study of teenagers.
Economic Determinants of Family Size in West Africa
Authors: Snyder Donald W.
Published: March 2007

The economic theory of fertility postulates that income and prices, broadly defined, are important determinants of family size. What follows is an attempt to test this theory against the behavior of 717 predominantly urban households in Sierra Leone. Husband’s education is used as a proxy for income; the “price” of a child is accounted for by wife’s education and wife’s wage rate. Other important variables are wife’s age, a measure of child “quality,” wife’s age at first birth, and child mortality. The findings of the study tend to lend support to the economic theory of fertility but contain certain peculiarities which indicate a need for further research.
Age at Marriage, Family Planning Practices, and other Variables as Correlates of Fertility in Korea
Authors: Kim Mo-Im , Rider Rowland V. , Harper Paul A. , Yang Jae-Mo
Published: March 2007

The relationships between fertility and thirteen variables are examined in three groups of married Korean women, about 400 each from urban, rural, and semi-rural areas. Data were obtained by interview. Age at marriage and family planning practice are the strongest predictors of fertility and account for about 10 percent and 7 percent of the total variance, respectively. Other factors which accounted for lesser fractions of variability are ideal number of children, rural versus urban residence, education, aspiration for daughters, exposure to mass media, and economic status. Most of the relationships appear to be stable over time; others, which are associated with modernization, appear to be changing. The thirteen variables combined can account for a maximum of 40 percent of the variance in fertility.
Computer Display of Population Age Structure
Authors: Pick James B.
Published: March 2007

The standard human population pyramid contains only current information; it is often inadequate when making comparisons of different countries or years. A graphic computer program superimposes current population, life table survivor ships, stable population, and past population projected up to the present. Fertility, health conditions, migration, and demographic transition stage are better revealed by this expanded graph form. A time series of the modified pyramids reveals detailed age-specific trends for a country or region. With ’minor modifications the computer program is applicable to all machines with a Fortran IV compiler.
Generating Functions for Partial Sex Control Problems
Authors: Smith David P.
Published: March 2007

If at each conception couples have some control over the sex of their intended offspring, their chances of reaching a desired ultimate family composition will be influenced by the specific order in which they try for sons and daughters. This article introduces and discusses the mathematics of the strategy decisions that arise where probabilities remain constant at each birth. In the Appendix probabilities and their generating functions for distributions ofi children of one sex and 1–2 children of the other sex are given.
Effects of migration on the educational levels of the black resident population at the origin and destination, 1955–1960 and 1965–1970
Authors: Shin Eui-Hang
Published: March 2007

Using the 1960 and 1970 census data, this paper analyzes the net effects of the interregional migration of black males on the educational levels of the resident black male population at the regions of origin and destination. Significant variations are observed in the educational selectivity of outmigrants from each region, by region of destination. Comparing the educational levels of the return migrants to the South with those of the resident population in the nonsouthern regions provides no evidence that the return migrants are "failed" migrants. The net effect of interregional migration on the educational levels of the black male resident population at the regions of origin and destination is insignificant in most age groups, for both the 1955–1960 and 1965–1970 periods. In particular, in-migration from the South to nonsouthern regions has little effect on the educational levels of the resident population in most age groups. In fact, for nonsouthern regions, out-migration is more detrimental to the educational level of the resident black male population than is in-migration from the South. Furthermore, the net effect of interregional migration has declined from the 1955–1960 period to the 1965–1970 period.
Husband-wife agreement about reproductive goals
Authors: Coombs Lolagene C. , Fernandez Dorothy
Published: March 2007

Data from Malaysia on the reproductive goals of husbands and wives are analyzed to determine level of agreement, using new scale measures on preferences for number and sex of children as well as the conventional measure of desired number of children. The level of agreement between husband and wife varies considerably depending on the focus of analysis and the measure of agreement used. Overall aggregate agreement of men and women is high but lower for subgroups of the population, particularly among various ethnic groups. For marital partners, the agreement is much lower, especially on sex preferences. The level observed depends on whether the measure is identity of responses or an index of homogeneity which allows for couple concordance based on chance or common socialization factors. The views about the reproductive goals of one marital partner cannot with confidence be assumed to represent the views of the other.
Age and marital status at first birth and the pace of subsequent fertility
Authors: Bumpass Larry L. , Rindfuss Ronald R. , Janosik Richard B.
Published: March 2007

Taking care to minimize the truncation bias inherent in cross-sectional data and controlling for other variables, this paper demonstrates the strong effects of both age and marital status at first birth on the pace of subsequent fertility. These effects are particularly strong in the interval immediately following the first birth but persist even into the fourth interval. Important differences are found with respect to the experience of rapid fertility, rather than in the mean lengths of intervals. These results add to the growing attention to the social dimensions of age as a variable in fertility processes.
A general method of decomposing a difference between two rates into several components
Authors: Gupta Prithwis Das
Published: March 2007

In her work on the components of a difference between two rates, Kitagawa (1955) was successful in dividing the difference into the rate effect and the effect of the factor, for data classified by one factor. Her formulation for data classified by two factors, however, involves an interaction term which is difficult to interpret. Retherford and Cho (1973) devised a method that does not include any interaction terms. However, their method has other limitations, such as the dependence of the results on the order in which the effects of the factors are computed. In this paper, we provide a general method capable of handling any number of factors, which is developed along the lines suggested by Kitagawa and by Retherford and Cho but without the limitations of their methods.
A components method for measuring the impact of a family planning program on birth rates
Authors: Teachman Jay D. , Hogan Dennis P. , Bogue Donald J.
Published: March 2007

One of the major goals of family planning programs worldwide has been to reduce the level of fertility in hopes of slowing the rate of natural increase and promoting social and economic development. Such programs have now been in existence for sufficient lengths of time to have had an impact on fertility levels. In several countries with organized family planning programs, marked declines in fertility levels have been observed. The extent to which such declines may be credited to organized programs has not been rigorously measured because an appropriate research methodology has been lacking. This paper describes one method of directly linking declines in fertility levels to the contraceptive protection experienced by a population. The contribution of organized family planning programs is estimated by decomposing the amount of total contraceptive protection into within-program and outside-program sources.
The momentum of population growth with time dependent net maternity function
Authors: Cerone P. , Keane A.
Published: March 2007

The momentum of population growth problem of Keyfitz is generalized to contain a gradual change of the age-specific birth rate to the level of bare replacement. Assuming a time dependence for the net maternity function of the form , R being the net reproductive rate, we show that for the Malthusian model the asymptotic birth rate is increased by exp (r/λ), where r is the rate of increase of the population before t = 0. A numerical method for obtaining the asymptotic birth rate for a general net maternity function with the same time dependence is outlined.
Changing patterns of migration between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States: Recent evidence
Authors: Tucker C. Jack
Published: March 2007

Data from the 1975 Current Population Survey confirm that, during 1970–1975, there was a reversal of the traditional net migration stream between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas in the United States. During this period, there was net in-migration of 1,600,000 persons to nonmetropolitan areas, in contrast to net out-migration of 350,000 persons from these areas in 1965–1970. Reversal was caused by a 12 percent decrease in the number of nonmetropolitan out-migrants and a 23 percent increase in the number of SMSA residents moving to nonmetropolitan territory over 1965–1970 levels. While some changes in the size of migration streams were due to changes in age structures and population bases in metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas, they were caused primarily by real shifts in outmigration propensities at practically all ages in both areas.
The effect of subsidized family planning services on reproductive behavior in the United States, 1969–1974
Authors: Udry J. Richard , Bauman Karl E. , Morris Naomi M.
Published: March 2007

This paper evaluates the impact of federally subsidized family planning programs in the United States, from 1969 to 1974, on the reproductive behavior of ever-married women, 15–44 years old. The study began with an experimental design and the random assigment of areas to treatment and control but was completed as a multivariate analysis, treating program input as an interval-scaled independent variable. Using “before” and “after” area sample surveys and patient service data from operating programs, the demographic impact of the program was estimated. The impact detected was nonsignificant; according to our analysis, overall use of physician-administered contraception was not affected by the subsidized programs. The only program-induced change of activity related to reproduction that we recorded was increased use of subsidized services in study areas with high program input and increased use of private physician services where program input was low. These findings need to be interpreted with the caution usually exercised in evaluating imperfect field experiments.
Motivations for the use of birth control: Evidence from West Africa
Authors: Ware Helen
Published: March 2007

A conventional assumption in the family planning literature is that birth control in developing countries is first adopted by high parity women who wish to cease childbearing. The empirical support for this belief has mainly been drawn from interview surveys on the motivations for, and the timing of, the inception of birth control among married women in areas where there is no cultural precedent for birth spacing by traditional means. This study, on the other hand, is based on data drawn from an area sample of 6,606 women, married or single, aged 15–59, in Ibadan, Nigeria, where there is a tradition for the practice of abstinence after a birth for the purpose of birth spacing. The Nigerian pattern revealed in the data presented here is indeed distinctive in many respects: (a) although premarital sex is prevalent, levels of premarital contraception are high; and (b) within marriage, spacing is the most prominent motivation for contraceptive practice, more important than the limitation of family size.
Life table techniques for multiple-cause mortality
Authors: Manton Kenneth G. , Tolley H. Dennis , Poss Sharon Sandomirsky
Published: March 2007

A lethal defect-wear model of mortality is presented which rationalizes the assumption of independent risks when death may be due to more than a single condition, Under this model, it is shown how competing risk theory and standard categorical data methods may be merged in a unified approach to the analysis of multiple-cause mortality data. The methodology is used to analyze linkages among diseases in the mortality data and evaluate the implication of the elimination of patterns of morbid states for multiple-cause mortality data from deaths occurring in 1969 in North Carolina.
An investigation of the age of an alleged centenarian
Authors: Myers Robert J.
Published: March 2007

At times, persons have been reported as living to extremely advanced ages such as 130, or even higher (McWhirter and McWhirter, 1977, p. 26; Medvedev, 1974; Merrill, 1976). However, controlled studies of closed groups like Civil War veterans (Myers and Shudde, 1955) have not shown any persons surviving beyond age 110, when age has been reasonably verified. It seems, therefore, highly plausible that reports of extremely advanced ages at death reflect exaggerations of age rather than reality. This note reports a case history which supports this view and illustrates how ages can be verified using available census data.
Urbanization and de-urbanization of the black population before the civil war
Authors: Wilkie Jane Riblett
Published: March 2007

Pre-Civil War black urbanization is examined using data from federal census records, 1790 to 1860. The black population is found to be as urban as the white population initially, but its urbanization underwent relative decline in the last two decades before the Civil War. Foreshadowing current patterns, the northern black population was heavily concentrated in the largest cities, and the free black population was the most urban of all groups. The timing of black urban decline in the North, as well as regional and size of place differences in that decline, suggest that both competition with immigrants in major eastern seaboard cities and the passage of the Fugitive Slave Law in 1850 contributed to black de-urbanization. For the South, the explanations of black urban decline proposed by Wade, Conrad and Meyer, Goldin, and Bonacich are evaluated, and Bonacich’s split labor market theory is judged to be most consistent with the demographic trends.
Compensating changes in fertility and mortality
Authors: Espenshade Thomas J. , Chan C. Y.
Published: March 2007

This paper illustrates a method of studying changes in vital rate schedules which have no effect on the intrinsic rate of population growth. These changes are described as compensating changes in fertility and mortality. The analysis proceeds from the discrete perspective of Leslie matrices, wherein the central idea is to establish the set of all compensating changes by identifying that class of Leslie matrices which possess the same positive eigenvalue, λ1. A root-squaring technique is adapted for the purpose of estimating λ1. Finally, a variety of compensating fertility and mortality changes is illustrated using data from Japan.
A study on IUD retention by curve-fitting
Authors: Liu Peng-Tu , Chow Lien-Ping , Abbey Helen
Published: March 2007

In order to estimate the demographic impact of IUD, there is a need for estimating IUD retention rates beyond the period of actual observation. This article describes a mixed exponential function for this purpose. With this function of IUD retention, it is possible to estimate the “life expectancy” and “half-life” of an IUD. Another important concept is the “cut-off date”, introduced in estimating the “life expectancy” because in practice no IUD will be worn by a woman forever.
Gradients of metropolitan dominance in turkey: Alternative models
Authors: Treadway Roy C.
Published: March 2007

The dominance or influence of metropolitan centers in the developing country of Turkey, as measured by gradients of population characteristics (population density, percent urban, sex ratio, percent over five years of age, and percent literate) by distance from the nearest metropolitan center for 1960 and 1965, is found to decrease sharply from the central zone to the next zone (25–49 kilometers from the center), and then change very little with increasing distance from the center, for both urban and rural populations. None of several alternative mathematical models describes the form of the influence of metropolitan centers on the population characteristics of their hinterlands very well, but the best fitting models suggest that population density declines by distance according to an exponential function to the base e, percent urban declines according to a function to the one-fourth power, sex ratio declines for about 100 kilometers and then increases according to a quadratic function, and percent under six years increases and percent literate declines according to a linear function. These results suggest that dominance of a metropolitan center over its hinterland beyond 25 or 50 kilometers in Turkey is not very strong, possibly because of the relatively poorly developed transportation and communication systems. Although metropolitan dominance in Turkey in 1960 and 1965 seems to diminish more sharply with distance and to extend less far from the metropolitan center than in developed countries or than it may as Turkey develops economically and technologically in the future, additional comparative data over time in Turkey and in developed countries at the same time are needed for a rigorous test of this apparent finding.
A Gompertz fit that fits: Applications to canadian fertility patterns
Authors: Murphy Edmund M. , Nagnur Dhruva N.
Published: March 2007

In this paper an attempt is made to refine the method of fitting the Gompertz function to the cumulative fertility rates by using iterative techniques. The method is tested with the historical data series for the Canadian population. The demographic implication of the parameters of the Gompertz function as fitted to the fertility distribution is examined, and the usefulness of the method in projecting future fertility trends is studied. The Makeham function is also fitted to the fertility distribution by the same iterative technique, and the relative efficiency of this function is compared with that of the Gompertz.
Evaluation of family planning program performance: A critical review
Authors: Reynolds Jack
Published: March 2007

Family Planning Program Evaluation is not a well-developed art, much less an exact science. The evaluation of the performance of such programs has received a good deal of attention but the methodologies are still controversial and the results inconclusive. This is due to a wide variety of constraints, not all of which are technical, and most of which are not unique to family planning. The prospects for improvement of FPPE depend, to a great extent, on overcoming these constraints.
Factorial ecology: A critique and some suggestions
Authors: Hunter Alfred A.
Published: March 2007

Studies in factorial ecology have typically used the principal factor procedure coupled with varimax rotation. Since it can be shown that the results one obtains vary according to the factor and rotation models he employs, and since there is no one “best” way of obtaining initial and derived factor solutions, it is proposed that future research in the area adopt an approach involving the simultaneous use of several different computing algorithms for obtaining initial solutions and both orthogonal and oblique rotation procedures to avoid the possibility that the results one obtains are not method-dependent. Ideally, the factor models employed should differ maximally with respect to the principles upon which they are based. If one finds a given factor regardless of the method he uses, only then can he assert with any confidencethat it is not an artifact of his method. Factorial ecologists are often interested in computing “factor scores”, but “true” factor scores are not uniquely computable; they can only be estimated. Since the proposed research strategy involves using either a component or an image model, in which the corresponding scores are exact and uniquely computable, the factor score problem is, in a sense, solved. Next it is suggested that, by using orthogonal solutions, factorial ecologists may be overlooking a very important piece of information—the correlation between the factors. There is some reason to believe that this varies from city to city, and may account for the fact that some factors which emerge in studies of Western cities are sometimes not found in cities elsewhere. Some comments are also made on the value of using census tract data, and on the availability of computer programs for different initial and derived factor solutions.
Demographic correlates of group achievement: contrasting patterns of Mexican-Americans and Japanese-Americans
Authors: Uhlenberg Peter
Published: March 2007

Patterns of family size, family stability, and timing of family formation characteristic of Mexican-Americans are contrasted with those of Japanese-Americans, and consequences of their demographic differences for group achievement are explored. Mexican-Americans are found to have a demographic system marked by young ages at marriage, young ages at beginning of childbearing, high rates of reproduction, and high rates of marital instability. Japanese-Americans display just the opposite pattern of behavior on each of these variables. Using existing research on determinants of individual achievement, reasons are then suggested why the demographic environment encountered by Japanese-American youth is more conducive to educational and economic achievement than is that encountered by Mexican-American youth.
Factors associated with religious and civil marriages
Authors: Rosenwaike Ira
Published: March 2007

Religious preference and educational level appear to be the major characteristics accounting for variation by age at marriage among Americans. Differences in age at marriage by educational attainment have been definitively documented in census reports, while those by religion have been based largely on analyses of the experience in the two states where religion is a separate item on the marriage certificate. This current study of category of ceremony data, as reported on marriage certificates, indicates that this item can, for some purposes, fairly adequately serve as a substitute source of data for specific religious information. Data for Maryland residents, showing that persons involved in Jewish and Catholic weddings marry later than those in Protestant ceremonies, are in close agreement with findings obtained in a national probability sample which ascertained religious preference and age at marriage.
Fertility, life cycle stage and female labor Force participation in Rhode Island: A retrospective overview
Authors: Mott Frank L.
Published: March 2007

Considerable historical evidence indicates a long term increase in female labor force participation in the United States during the twentieth century. However, there are only limited data available for analyzing this secular trend in any depth. Comprehensive retrospective data for a representative sample of 1,578 once-married Rhode Island women are utilized to examine the changing historical relationships between female work participation in selected life cycle intervals and educatonal attainment. The data indicate that there has been a recent convergence of labor force rates between better and less educated women, in some instances reversing the traditional pattern of higher labor force rates for less educated women. This convergence reflects primarily an extraordinary in-crease in labor force participation for women with at least twelve years of school at all stages of the childbearing period. Also highlighted is the close relationship between labor force participation in one life cycle interval and probability of participation in subsequent intervals. It is found that working or not working in one life cycle is a useful predictor of subsequent work participation. Also, a greater tendency for more recent cohorts of women to re-enter the labor force after childbearing is noted.
Effect on Unwanted Fertility of Extending Physician-Administered Birth Control in the United States
Authors: Udry J. Richard , Bauman Karl E.
Published: March 2007

A goal of publicly subsidized family planning programs in the United States is to prevent unwanted births, and the primary means being used to achieve this goal is to increase coverage with physician-administered contraception, with priority being given to persons from low-income families. We analyzed data from families living in low-income neighborhoods to determine whether that means would contribute to that goal, and if so, how much unwanted fertility might be decreased through increased coverage with physician-administered methods.

The results indicate that increased coverage with those methods would decrease unwanted fertility by 80 percent (79 percent among blacks, 83 percent among whites). Increasing the ratio of sterilization to pill and IUD makes the effect of the increased coverage even more dramatic.
The Bogue-Palmore Technique for Estimating Direct Fertility Measures From Indirect Indicators as applied to Tennessee Counties, 1960 and 1970
Authors: Tuchfeld Barry S. , Guess Leverett L. , Hastings Donald W.
Published: March 2007

Bogue and Palmore’s technique for estimating direct fertility measures from indirect indicators IS applied to the 95 counties of Tennessee 1960 and 1970. Findings based on these data tentatively suggest that this technique may be better suited for cross-national research than for analysis of small population units. It is recommended that the “own child” method is more appropriate for estimating fertility when utilizing data on counties.
Pregnancy Termination Intervals in a Rural Area of Bangladesh
Authors: Stoeckel John , Choudhury A. K. M. Alauddin
Published: March 2007

Pregnancy termination intervals, i.e., live birth to live birth (LB-LB), live birth to fetal loss (LB-FL), and fetal loss to live birth (FL-LB), are analyzed prospectively between 1966 and 1970 in a rural population (117,000) of Bangladesh. Results indicate that the mean LB-LB interval was almost 30 months, the LB-FL interval 27 months, and the FL-LB interval 18 months. In addition, postpartum amenorrhea was estimated to be about 13-14 months, and the time added by a fetal loss toa LB-LB interval about 15 months. No relationship was found between LB-LB intervals and the number of living or dead children.
White-Nonwhite Differentials in Occupational Mobility among Men in the United States, 1962–1972
Authors: Hauser Robert M. , Featherman David L.
Published: March 2007

Intercohort shifts between 1962 and 1972 in the occupation distributions of white and nonwhite men are analyzed and compared at ages 35–44, 45–54, and 55–64. Both white and nonwhite occupation distributions were upgraded over the decade, but among nonwhites the shifts away from the lowest-status occupations were expressed partly in increasing rates of absence from the labor force. There are indications of especially rapid shifts in the occupation distributions of nonwhite men at ages 35–44. Among whites and nonwhites intercohort shifts in the occupation distribution can be attributed primarily to changing patterns of movement from first full-time civilian jobs to current occupations, rather than to changing occupational origin distributions or patterns of movement to first jobs. The white and nonwhite occupation distributions did not show a clear pattern of convergence over the decade. They became less similar at ages 35–44 and more similar at older ages. White and nonwhite distributions were most likely to converge in those occupation groups where the share of whites was stable or declining, rather than in groups whose share of the occupation distribution was increasing. Later cohorts of nonwhites would have a much more favorable occupational distribution if they had enjoyed the mobility patterns of whites in earlier cohorts. In 1972, as in 1962, the inferior occupational chances of nonwhites are due primarily to their disadvantageous patterns of occupational mobility, rather than to impoverished social origins.
The Marriage Squeeze
Authors: Muhsam H. V.
Published: March 2007

If the sex-age structure of the population is equilibrated, observed marriage patterns are assumed to reflect preferred mate selections. With regard to age, these preferences can be expressed in terms of the probabilities of unmarried persons of given ages marrying persons of various ages. To study the situation of unequilibrated sexes, these probabilities can be used to compute, for each combination of ages of groom and bride, the expected number of grooms and the expected number of brides. If either of these numbers exceeds the other, the corresponding sex is in a “marriage squeeze.” The comparison among the expected number of grooms, that of brides, and the observed number of marriages supplies information on the effects of the squeeze.

In Australia, marriage statistics of 1949 were considered to reflect preferred selections. In 1958, men of most ages were in a squeeze. As a consequence, some relatively younger and older men did not get married, and some relatively younger and older women improved their chances of marriage in the year under consideration. 291–299
New Estimates of the Vital Rates of the United States Black Population During the Nineteenth Century
Authors: Eblen Jack Ericson
Published: March 2007

The difficulties of obtaining credible estimates of vital rates for the black population throughout the entire nineteenth century are overcome in this study. The methodology employed the notion of deviating networks of mortality rates for each general mortality level, which was taken from the United Nations studyThe Concept of a Stable Population. Period life tables and vital rates for intercensal periods were generated from the new estimates of the black population at each census date. The results of this study are highly compatible both with the life tables for the death-registration states in the twentieth century and the recent Coale and Rives reconstruction for the period from 1880 to 1970 and with several estimates of vital rates previously made for the mid-nineteenth century. This study places the mean life expectancy at birth for the black population during the nineteenth century at about 33.7 years for both sexes. The infant death rate (1000m0) is shown to have varied between 222 and 237 for females and between 266 and 278 for males. The intrinsic crude death rate centered on 30.4 per thousand during the century, while the birth rate declined from 53.2 early in the century to about 43.8 at the end.
Residential preferences and migration
Authors: De Jong Gordon F.
Published: March 2007

For some time now, public opinion polls have revealed Americans’ strong preference to live in comparatively small cities, towns, and rural areas rather than in large cities. However, as Fuguitt and Zuiches (1975) have reported, the majority of people also want these places to be within commuting distance of a large metropolitan city. This research tests the hypothesis that size-of-place and urban proximity preferences are factors in the dispersal of population through migration. A one-year panel survey of Pennsylvania households indicates that only about one household in ten that moved actually attained its preference for a smaller-sized place or a location more distant from a large city. Preferences for smaller-sized places and proximity to a city were not correlated with where people actually moved when the size and proximity of the previous residence were taken into consideration.
Relative income and fertility
Authors: Choudhury Rafiqul Hudo
Published: March 2007

The present study examines the relationship between relative income (i.e., actual income in relation to the expected income of one’s socioeconomic group) and fertility, using data collected by the 1967-1968Canadian Family Growth Study (Balakrishnan et al., 1975). We broaden the tests of relative income beyond cumulative fertility to spacing behavior and then examine some of the assumptions included in the relative income model of fertility. Results of the tests, in brief, are as follows: (a) Relative income is found to be more closely related to spacing than to cumulative fertility; and (b) the relationship between relative income and fertility is strongest among those couples who plan their life ahead and have a high level of education and occupation, and when temporal alignment is brought between the measures of relative income and fertility. For the relative income model to receive confirmation, it was specified that the following hypotheses must be confirmed: (a) that fertility behavior would vary positively with relative income but the fertility norm would show no relationship with relative income; and (b) that consumption norms and behavior would show no relationship with relative income. The outcome of these tests are in the expected direction, giving support to the relative income model. In addition, there is some evidence of predictive capability of the relative income model for correlative behavior.
Mother’s home time and the production of child quality
Authors: Fleisher Belton M.
Published: March 2007

This paper deals with the effect of mother’s time spent out of the labor force, and presumably in the home, on the “production” of child quality, where child quality is measured by intelligence (IQ), level of schooling attained, and market earning power. The results indicate that mother’s home time is most effective in producing (male) child quality for mothers who have attained relatively high levels of schooling. The results suggest that education programs which devote equal school resources to all (male) children do not necessarily provide equal educational opportunity and that the influence of family background on economic success is indirect, operating through home investments in children.
Family planning program activity and patient enrollment rates in the United States, 1969 and 1971
Authors: Hout Michael
Published: March 2007

The effects of demographic characteristics, socioeconomic conditions, health care, and family planning program activity on patient enrollment rates are estimated for 1969 and 1971. Two program activity variables (agencies and clinic locations) have significant, positive net effects in both years. The effect of agencies changed little between 1969and 1971, and it is the strongest effect in both years. The effect of clinic locations more than doubled between 1969 and 1971, partly due to increased demand. The direct effects of the demographic, socioeconomic, and health care variables are not large, but many of the demographic and socioeconomic variables have substantial indirect effects via health care and program activity.
A vital statistics-based procedure for estimating conception rates
Authors: Pullum Thomas W. , Williams Stephen J.
Published: March 2007

A method for estimating conception rates, using vital statistics data, is developed and applied to data on five-year age groups of California women for 1971. The approach is deterministic and allocates total exposure time to the known pregnancy outcomes of live birth, spontaneous abortion, and induced abortion. The population at risk is defined to exclude women who are known to be sterile or sexually inactive. Early fetal loss, premarital conception, and contraceptive use are taken into account. Estimates are made of the fecundability which would obtain ifno contraception were used.
The impact of breast feeding patterns on the biometric analysis of infant mortality
Authors: Knodel John , Kintner Hallie
Published: March 2007

A major assumption of the biometric analysis of infant mortality as developed by Bourgeois-Pichat is that the age structure of infant deaths after the first month of life is virtually constant across time and cultures. Reanalysis of results from studies which compare the mortality of infants according to the type of feeding indicated that the relationship between mortality and age within the first year of life followed different patterns for breast fed and artificially fed infants. Historical data for populations with different breast feeding customs reveal similar differences in the age pattern of infant mortality. In populations where breast feeding was uncommon or of very short duration, infant mortality rises particularly steeply during the early months of the first year of life. The age structure of infant mortality in less developed countries where breast feeding is decreasing rapidly may be similarly affected. When substantial deviations from the linear relationship are evident, particular caution is required in applying the biometric technique, since in such situations the estimated endogenous mortality is very much affected by the particular set of data points within the first year of life which are chosen for the basis of the estimates.
What difference would it make if cancer were eradicated? An examination of the taeuber paradox
Authors: Keyfitz Nathan
Published: March 2007

The immediate effect of discovering a way to cure cancer would be a reduction in the number of deaths in the United States by the number of people now dying from that cause. Within a short time, however, deaths from other causes would increase, and the net long-term effect would be relatively small. A parameter is derived that measures how much the expectation of life is increased by a marginal reduction in any cause of death. That parameter is additive in the several causes and has other advantages, though it does not avoid the assumption of independence.
Measuring the Effects of Race Differentials in Mortality Upon Surviving Family Members
Authors: Sutton Gordon F.
Published: March 2007

A model is developed to use marital history data from the U.S. Current Population Survey and mortality statistics from the federal registration system to estimate color differences in (a) the risk of widowhood among women in the working ages and (b) the cumulative duration of widowhood. Color differentials in mortality among married males are thereby translated into person-years of dependent survivorship among women, in anticipation of our later estimating average and cumulative lifetime income losses for the survivors. Initial results of this model, dealing with the demographic aspects of survivorship, are presented.
The Predictive Validity of Reproductive Intentions
Authors: Westoff Charles F. , Ryder Norman B.
Published: March 2007

On the basis of data collected in the 1975 National Fertility Study (NFS) in which continuously married white women interviewed in the 1970 NFS were reinterviewed five years later, the aggregate and individual validity of reported fertility intentions is evaluated. The main finding about aggregate prediction is that 1970 intentions overestimated 1971–1975 fertility to the same extent as the conventional 1970 total fertility rate. The conclusion is that intentions suffer all of the same vulnerabilities as other period measures. At the individual level, the validity of intentions is considerable in comparison with most other indicators.
Sampling variability of own-children fertility estimates
Authors: Retherford Robert D. , Bennett Neil G.
Published: March 2007

This paper develops methodology for estimating standard errors and confidence intervals for own-children estimates of age-specific birth rates and total fertility rates. The methodology applies to systematic samples of households, which are treated as simple random samples of women. The assumption of simple random selection, together with the treatment of sample subgroup size and reverse-survival ratios as constants instead of random variables, imply that sampling variability is slightly underestimated. The methodology is applied illustratively to fertility estimates based on the 1970 census of the Philippines.
Measuring the impact of child mortality on fertility: A methodological note
Authors: Williams Anne D.
Published: March 2007

Recent studies of the impact of child mortality on children ever born have used the “replacement factor” to measure mortality. When microlevel data are used, however, use of the replacement factor (or other variables which are nonlinear in the family’s experienced child mortality rate) yields biased coefficients. An alternative model suggests a sequential, rather than a static, decision-making process to relate the decision to have an additional child to the reproductive experience to date. In this case, unbiased coefficients are obtained if the functional form is correctly specified. In the absence of a priori knowledge of the functional form, it is difficult to untangle true effects from spurious ones.
Estimation of interregional migration streams from place-of-birth-by-residence data
Authors: Rogers Andrel , von Rabenau Burkhard
Published: March 2007

Place-of-birth-by-residence data, tabulated by age and sex for the same areal units in two successive censuses, have been used to estimate intercensal net migration flows. However, a fuller use of the same data permits the estimation of place-to-place flows. This paper describes a method for estimating intercensal migration streams from place-of-birth-by-residence data and illustrates its application with data on the white female native population of the United States.
Urbanization in Thailand, 1947–1967
Authors: Goldstein Sidney
Published: March 2007

Utilizing both census and population register data for the period 1947–1967, this analysis assesses changing levels and rates of urbanization in Thailand, compares regional variations in urbanization patterns, and relates such differences to selected indicators of economic and demographic development. Although the overall level of urbanization remains low, the rate of urbanization is high and the increase in the number of moderate sized urban places significant. Greater Bangkok, accounting for over half of Thailand’s urban population and almost two–thirds of all urban growth, has increased its primacy in Thailand’s urban structure. But urban development has also begun to permeate all regions of the country and to be an important factor in the complex process of national social and economic development.
Fertility trends in Australia
Authors: Spencer Geraldine M.
Published: March 2007

Using published data from the Australian vital registration and census systems, several time series are compiled: crude birth rates from the 1860s; fertility rates from the 1880s; age-specific and parity-specific measures from the 191Os; cumulative fertility measures by birth year of parent beginning with the 1890s; and cumulative fertility measures for marriages by year contracted from the 1910s.The decline in fertility to the 1930s, the upswing to 1961, and declines thereafter revealed by annual fertility measures show far more variation than do measures of total generation fertility—2.7 children per woman born in 1893–95, 2.3 1906–10, 2.8 1921–25, and perhaps 3.0 for women born in the 1930s. Both annual and generation measures show a younger age at parenthood, a decrease in childlessness, and progressively fewer large families. In the light of present experience, it seems not unreasonable to project generation fertility of 2.5 children, implying a crude birth rate of about 20 per thousand for the next fifteen years or so.