bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Retail Restructuring in Polish Transitional Economy
Authors: Taylor Zbigniew
Published: March 2003

This paper consists of two sections. The first provides a general outline of transformation processes in retailing on the national scale in the years 1988–98. Special attention is paid to the factors of retail development and stores privatisation, foreign entrepreneurship in retailing, stores fragmentation and changes in assortment. The second section comprises the empirical case study of a small town in which the changes in retailing and services observed can be studied on the micro‐scale. The changes include an increase in the number of facilities, privatisation processes, changes in assortments, emergence of new crafts in services, changes in location and early stages of capital concentration.
Urban Form and Job Access: Disparate Realities in the Randstad
Authors: Van Ham Maarten , Hooimeijer Pieter , Mulder Clara H.
Published: March 2003

Deconcentration of employment is the driving force behind the rise of the complex urban forms of the polycentric city and the polynucleated metropolis. It is often assumed that the deconcentration process improves job access for average and highly skilled workers, allowing them to move to peripheral residential locations and triggering a new round of urban sprawl. It is also hypothesised that access to suitable job opportunities is withheld from low‐skilled workers living in inner‐city neighbourhoods as a result of the deconcentration of low‐skilled employment beyond their commuting tolerance. In this contribution we illustrate how network‐oriented GIS provides an instrument to enable the evaluation of the job access of residential locations at varying levels of commuting tolerance and for various types of employment. Application of this instrument to the metropolitan area of the Randstad shows that suburban locations in between major employment centres are clearly superior for households with highly skilled workers, making urban sprawl towards residential locations outside the Randstad unlikely. It is also shown that for poorly skilled workers with limited commuting tolerance the central city is still the best place to live.
Cycles in industrial clusters: the case of the shipbuilding industry in the Northern Netherlands
Authors: Van Klink Arjen , De Langen Peter
Published: March 2003

The concept of clustering is familiar for economists and policy–makers. Clusters are widely regarded as sources of regional competitiveness. However, although the concept of clustering is widely used, there is no clear consensus of what actually constitutes a cluster. In this paper, we develop a dynamic cluster concept. This cluster concept places one particular value chain as central. First, on the basis of the literature we describe a number of characteristics for identifying a cluster. Second, we develop a stylised cluster cycle, with states of development, expansion, maturity and transition. The development of a cluster in these states stems from external contingent events as well as the internal dynamic of clusters. This dynamic cluster concept can be used to formulate policy alternatives for the different cluster states. We use the dynamic cluster concept to analyse the shipbuilding industry in the Northern Netherlands. This cluster went through the states of development and expansion and now shows signs of maturation. The cluster is described and possible policies to support it are suggested.
Where are the Web factories: The urban bias of e–business location
Authors: Gorman Sean P.
Published: March 2003

The Internet has been considered the great equaliser for business, allowing distant locals to compete with large metropolitan regions. Recent research points to a different geography, where domains and connectivity cluster predominantly in large urban areas. The question remains, are new businesses of the Internet economy doing the same or avoiding metropolitan areas? This paper examines the head and branch locations of the top 40 e–business integration firms in the USA. The analysis of the distribution of these locations will provide insight to what regions most benefit from the Internet economy. Further, the data should provide a useful comparison to metropolitan trends for domain and connectivity agglomeration.
The Integration of Scene Understanding within a Geographic Information System: A Prototype Approach for Agricultural Applications
Authors: Gahegan Mark , Flack Julien
Published: March 2003

This paper describes progress towards engineering a combined GIS and image understanding system, designed to analyse remotely‐sensed imagery in a task‐oriented manner, with the task and contextual parameters being supplied by the GIS. The overall aim is to evaluate some of the more recent developments in the field of computer vision and to show how they may be integrated (along with more traditional methods of image interpretation) to improve system performance in terms of object recognition and extraction. Three aspects are reported: (1) Development of a formal notation as the basis of describing the process of transforming data from low level image representations to high level object representations; (2) Design of collaborating low and high level image processes used in this abstraction process and their control via Process Networks encapsulated into frames; and (3) Use of Dempster‐Shafer Decision Theory as the basis for combining different types of evidence to improve the recognition of objects in the scene. Some sample results are presented to illustrate the issues raised and mechanisms for the co‐operative processing of data are suggested.
Using Network Analysis for Emergency Planning in Case of an Earthquake
Authors: Tarabanis Konstantinos , Tsionis Ioannis
Published: March 2003

Populations in several countries including Greece face a continuous earthquake hazard. Planning to explore how the authorities will conduct their actions when such incidents occur is very important. People have to move to safe areas called refuge areas. GIS network analysis tools can help predict how many and which people these refuge areas can host depending on the location of their residence. A network allocation model is used.
The PCRaster Software and Course Materials for Teaching Numerical Modelling in the Environmental Sciences
Authors: Karssenberg Derek , Burrough Peter A. , Sluiter Raymond , de Jong Kor
Published: March 2003

Teaching numerical modelling in the environmental sciences not only needs good software and course material but also an understanding of how to program the models in the computer. Conventional environmental modelling procedures require computer science and programming skills, which may detract from the important understanding of the environmental processes involved. An alternative strategy is to build a generic toolkit or modelling language that operates with concepts and operations that are familiar to the environmental scientist. PCRaster is such a spatio‐temporal environmental modelling language developed at Utrecht University, the Netherlands. It is used for teaching modelling in classrooms and over the Web (distance learning) at three levels: (1) explaining environmental processes and models, where models with a fixed structure of model equations are evaluated by changing model parameters, (2) teaching model construction, where students learn to program spatial and temporal models with the language, and (3) teaching all phases of scientific modelling related to field research. So far, we have received positive responses to these courses, largely because the software provides a set of easily learned functions matching the conceptual thought processes of a geoscientist that can be used at all levels of teaching.
Indo‐European and Computational Cladistics
Authors: Ringe Don , Warnow Tandy , Taylor Ann
Published: March 2003

This paper reports the results of an attempt to recover the first‐order subgrouping of the Indo‐European family using a new computational method devised by the authors and based on a ‘perfect phylogeny’ algorithm. The methodology is also briefly described, and points of theory and methodology are addressed in connection with the experiment whose results are here reported.
Banks, Financial Liberalisation and Financial Crises in Emerging Markets
Authors: Preusse Heinz G.
Published: March 2003

In 1991, Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay decided to establish a Mercado Comun del Sur (MERCOSUR). The new regional agreement developed quickly during the first half of the 90s and after a series of progressive tariff (and non‐tariff) reductions it became an (incomplete) customs union in 1995. During the second half of the 90s the completion of the customs union ran into increasing trouble and progress in the formation of a common market could not be realised. In this paper, two basic explanations of the poor performance of Mercosur are discussed. The first one claims that the adverse international situation (Asian crisis) is the main reason for the recent crisis. Consequently, a normalisation of the international environment is expected to be sufficient to revitalise the integration process. The second proposition emphasises more fundamental deficiencies of the concept of ‘open regionalism’. It is argued, that ‘open regionalism’ is inherently instable because, over time, it facilitates a more efficient articulation of vested interests working against ‘openness’. Proceeding from a simple free trade agreement (or a customs union) towards a common market tends to aggravate these problems. The conclusion of the paper is that the main obstacles to further regional integration in the Southern Cone are endogenous rather than exogenous. Therefore, the normalisation of the international economic environment may not be a sufficient condition for the revitalisation of the integration process.
The Suitability of ASEAN for a Regional Currency Arrangement
Authors: Bayoumi Tamim , Mauro Paolo
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the costs, benefits, preconditions, and implications of an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) regional currency arrangement that is assumed to culminate in a regional currency. On economic criteria, ASEAN appears less suited for a regional currency arrangement than Europe before the Maastricht Treaty, although the difference is not large. The transition to European Monetary Union (EMU) indicates that the path toward a common currency is fraught with difficulty. A firm political commitment would seem to be vital to ensuring that an attempt to form a regional currency arrangement is not viewed as simply another fixed exchange rate regime, open to speculative crises.
Europe – Quo Vadis? Reflections on the Future Institutional Framework of the European Union
Authors: Siebert Horst
Published: March 2003

With twelve new members the decision making in the European Union via intergovernmental cooperation will become ineffective. The EU is at the Cross Roads. In order to avoid a Stagno‐Europe the EU has a choice: Either it looks for the very essentials in the common institutional framework and adjusts it accordingly or the member states agree in ceding national sovereignty to the European level. This, however, requires that the democratic deficit at the EU level is reduced. The Treaty of Nice has failed to solve these issues. The paper elaborates in detail the non‐essentials and the essentials of European integration and discusses the basics of an approach to a constitution‐like arrangement for Europe.
An Internalisation‐based World Environmental Organisation
Authors: Whalley John , Zissimos Ben
Published: March 2003

We evaluate the possibilities for a new World Environmental Organisation (WEO), with our discussion motivated both by recent calls for such an organisation in light of WTO trade and environment conflicts and the relative absence of internalisation of global externalities. We propose an organisation building upon the idea of facilitating Coasian deal on the global environment. We motivate the establishment of such an organisation by itemising the ways in which global environmental deals are presently restrained by various impediments, including free riding, property right ambiguities, and mechanisms for authentification and verification. We indicate how such a WEO might help in each of these areas, stressing the differences from the WTO which is a much narrower bargaining framework.
Malaysian Trade Policy and the 2001 WTO Trade Policy Review
Authors: Athukorala Prema–Chandra
Published: March 2003

The purpose of this paper is two–fold; to examine developments in trade and investment policy regimes in Malaysia following the on–set of the financial crisis, using the Trade Policy Review Malaysia: 2001 of the WTO as a reference point; and to evaluate the Review in terms of the objectives of the WTO Trade Policy Review Mechanism as set out in the Marrakesh Agreement. It is found that, by and large Malaysia has managed to come out of the crisis without compromising on its long–standing commitment to maintaining a relatively open trade and investment policy regime by the regional standards. However, there are some disturbing post–crisis developments, which deserve scrutiny in a future Review. These include increase in the degree of dispersion of tariff rates because of high tariff peaks relating to a few product lines, increased reliance on non–automatic import licensing to regulate imports of a significant number of products which directly compete with domestic production by public sector enterprises, and unexplained delays in meeting commitments under the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS)
Debt Relief for Low Income Countries: Is it Effective and Efficient?
Authors: Bird Graham , Milne Alistair
Published: March 2003

Although a great deal of attention has been paid to IMF conditionality and to the effects of IMF programmes, relatively little attention has been paid to their completion rate. However, the record is that the clear majority of Fund programmes are uncompleted. Is this a cause for concern and why is it that the completion rate is low? In principle, a number of factors could be at work. Gaining a better understanding of what these are should allow policy reform at the IMF to improve performance. While there are things that we do not know and need to know about programme completion, we know enough to delineate the broad direction that policy should take.
Intonation patterns in news broadcasts
Authors: Nihalani Paroo , Lin Tay Po
Published: March 2003

The range of data investigated in the treatment of English Intonation has been rather too restricted, and emphasis has always been on the expressive or attitudinal function. Besides, the studies have often relied on data collected through isolated utterances and have rarely focused on genre‐specific discourse, especially from nativized contexts. This paper investigates the importance of intonation in interactive professional communication, in an attempt to develop a system of discourse intonation analysis for news broadcast genres.
Which way? That way? Variation and ongoing changes in the English relative clause
Authors: Newbrook Mark
Published: March 2003

Among the syntactic features of contemporary English, the relative clause is one of the most interesting, both theoretically and in respect of variation. This paper examines some of the main ways in which modern English varieties around the world (including both standard and near‐standard varieties, and ‘new’ varieties as well as traditional native‐speaker usage) differ in respect of relative clause formation, and draws attention to the theoretical upshots of some of the phenomena in question, the likely origins of these phenomena and the possible explanations for cases in which features are shared between apparently unassociated varieties. Studies conducted by the present author and by other scholars are taken into consideration and the prospects for further work on each phenomenon are outlined. The features in question are: omission of subject relative pronouns; use of ‘redundant’ subject relative pronouns in non‐ finite ‘reduced relative’ clauses; omission of prepositions with relative pronouns as prepositional completives; use of ‘whereby’ or ‘where’ for a range of prepositions with relative pronouns as prepositional completives; avoidance of ‘that’ with human antecedents; hypercorrect use of ‘whom’ for ‘who’; use of ‘that’s’ as possessive of relative ‘that’; loss, re‐structuring or reversal of the formal contrasts between restrictive and non‐restrictive relative clauses.
Getting the story straight: coming out narratives and the possibility of a cultural rhetoric
Authors: Bacon Jen
Published: March 2003

This paper begins with a belief that rhetorical practices play a central role in the construction of self. Specifically, this study explores how the ‘coming out’ stories of lesbians provide a means of negotiating both individual and collective identity within a cultural context that emphatically marginalizes everything ‘queer.’ As stories about rhetorical selves, coming out narratives may also serve political functions, locating rhetoric within the cultural forces of identity management and community building. My paper will explore the work that such narratives do for identity and community politics by emphasizing the mechanisms through which such representations of self sustain, as well as challenge binary logics of sexuality, essential notions of identity, and contemporary theories of rhetorical practice. By giving voice to members of a viable counter‐culture, and analyzing stories that trace individual women’s movement from the private closet to the public sphere, this paper enhances cross‐cultural studies and rhetorical theory and practice. This rhetorical tradition, I argue, is at the core of community building activities, and an understanding of the conventions for such rhetorical performances of identity is essential to any understanding of the culture and politics of the queer movement for liberation.
English in the Global Maritime Distress and Safety System
Authors: Johnson Barry
Published: March 2003

Traditional methods of sending and responding to distress and safety alerts at sea, involving telegraphy and telephony with limited range and clarity, have been superseded by a mainly satellite‐based system, with global range and high quality. Alerts are now primarily initiated by telex from ship to shore, rather than to other ships, and the message, including the latest ship's position, can be entirely automated. Responses can also be automated, and made via telex. In these circumstances, it may be supposed that the use of English, especially spoken English, is of less importance for the safety of life at sea. However, this study shows that for the new system to work properly, a good command of English is still required, from the reading of technical manuals and safety warnings to the ability to communicate by speech via telephony, as well as by writing via telex. In the context of increased multilingual crewing on ships where the working language is English, the teaching of both general and maritime English to ships' crews is more important than ever.
A View on Standards in South‐East Asia
Authors: Butler Susan
Published: March 2003

As a dictionary editor I have observed patterns in the reactions that speakers of English in South‐East Asia have to the general question of what should or shouldn't be in the dictionary. This paper will therefore be concerned with the acceptance of lexical items, the spelling and treatment of such items in text, particularly the italicisation of those words and phrases considered to be of doubtful legitimacy, and with those matters of usage which have a bearing on the treatment of words in the dictionary. I will draw on information gained in a survey of participants at conferences in Manila and Bangkok in August 1996 on the theme ‘English is an Asian language’. I will also analyse the responses of a workshop group at a conference held at the National Institute of Education, Singapore, in November 1996. All these groups were asked to comment on selected items with regard to their existence in English, their acceptability, their legitimacy as indicated by inclusion in dictionaries. They were also asked for opinions on spelling and usage matters. Some patterns do emerge from these samples of opinion, patterns which are sometimes at odds with the view of the lexicographer.
Relative clauses and register expansion in Tok Pisin
Authors: Levey Stephen
Published: March 2003

The linguistic correlates of register expansion constitute a fertile area for research within pidgin and creole studies given that there have been few investigations into how different registers within expanded pidgins and creoles may be characterized linguistically. A diachronic investigation of variation in relativization strategies in media Tok Pisin, an English‐based pidgin/creole, reveals that certain innovations in relative clause marking are related to the emergence of informationally‐focused literate genres which rely heavily on structural elaboration features that facilitate the dense packaging of informational texts. The addition of new structural variants such as ‘husat’ and ‘we’ for marking relative clauses offers greater stylistic manoeuvrability, and the trend towards more explicit marking of relative clauses in media Tok Pisin is arguably motivated by the need to manipulate and structure complex, cohesive written discourse. These innovations are ultimately related to the functional expansion of Tok Pisin as it evolves to meet new communicative and stylistic requirements.
Bilinguals’ creativity: Patricia Grace and Maori cultural context
Authors: Tawake Sandra
Published: March 2003

Fiction written by Pacific islanders began to emerge on the literary scene about 1970 and began to overwrite the perspectives and stereotypes that had characterized colonial narratives set in the Pacific written prior to that time. Pacific island writers adapted the Standard English code to create a new English with which to express their own cultures and identities in a language and a point of view different than those used by their colonizers. This writing adapts the Standard English code by incorporating such elements as untranslated vocabulary from indigenous languages and discourse elements from a pre–colonial oral tradition that include repetition, eulogy, and oratory. Important works of fiction by NZ Maori Patricia Grace –Cousins (1992) and Baby No–Eyes (1998) – exploit her innovations in language and the narrative structures of Standard English in order to tell her stories in the way that the older Maori people had of telling a story, a way where the beginning is not the beginning and the end is not the end. Grace celebrates difference and contests essentializing identities and social constructions of reality by creating powerful images of post–coloniality. Her work stands among the best fiction coming out of the Pacific for its power to transform one instrument of colonial domination into an instrument of creativity and liberation.
“Two Concepts of Liberty” Through African Eyes
Authors: Siame C. N.
Published: March 2003

In “Two Concepts of Liberty” Berlin notes the protean nature of the word “freedom” and then systematically proceeds to narrow its range of meanings. In the process, Berlin eliminates much of what most people, in everyday communication, regard as freedom, believing that this is in the best interest of intellectual clarity. As he puts it:

[N]othing is gained by a confusion of terms. To avoid glaring inequality or widespread misery I am ready to sacrifice some, or all, of my freedom: I may do so willingly and freely: but it is freedom that I am giving up for the sake of justice or equality or the love of my fellow men. I should be guilt‐stricken, and rightly so, if I were not, in some circumstances, ready to make this sacrifice. But a sacrifice is not an increase in what is being sacrificed, namely freedom, however great the moral need or the compensation for it. Everything is what it is: liberty is liberty, not equality or fairness or justice or culture, or human happiness or a quiet conscience. (Emphasis added).

Berlin's other, perhaps overarching, aim is to show how inattention to the specificity of the meanings of concepts might have potentially dangerous political repercussions. He implicitly argues that the intellectuals who promoted the idea of positive freedom as opposed to that of negative freedom contributed to the emergence of totalitarianism and fascism in Europe.
Constitutional Design and Regional Favoritism
Authors: Zantman Wilfried
Published: March 2003

Using a principal‐agent framework, this paper analyzes a public good provision problem in which a central government tries to favor one of the regions for political reasons. We show how this favoritism leads to some distortions of the allocation scheme compared to the benevolent case. We then study the effects of decentralization, modeled here by giving an outside option to the minority region. We exhibit a trade‐off between rent and equality and study the allocative and redistributive effects of a decentralized setting.
Developing Countries and Environmental Protection: The Effects of Ex Ante Versus Ex Post Contracting
Authors: Batabyal Amitrajeet A.
Published: March 2003

In the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, developing countries (DCs) were adamant that in order to protect the environment for the future, new institutions were needed that would channel resources from the wealthy developed countries to the poor DCs. With this backdrop, I analyze the problem faced by an asymmetrically informed supranational governmental authority (SNGA) that wishes to design an International Environmental Agreement (IEA). The SNGA cannot contract directly with polluting firms in the various DCs; instead, the SNGA must deal with such firms through their governments. I study this tripartite hierarchical interaction and focus on the properties of the optimal ex ante and ex post IEAs, which can be implemented by the SNGA in two different scenarios. The analysis suggests that IEAs are not inherently doomed due to a basic monitoring and enforcement problem stemming from national sovereignty. Further, desirable levels of pollution abatement can result in a number of contractual settings.
On the Logit Approach to Competitive Facility Location
Authors: Drezner Zvi , Wesolowsky George O. , Drezner Tammy
Published: March 2003

The random utility model in competitive facility location is one approach for estimating the market share captured by a retail facility in a competitive environment. However, it requires extensive computational effort for finding the optimal location for a new facility because its objective function is based on a k‐dimensional integral. In this paper we show that the random utility model can be approximated by a logit model. The proportion of the buying power at a demand point that is attracted to the new facility can be approximated by a logit function of the distance to it. This approximation demonstrates that using the logit function of the distance for estimating the market share is theoretically founded in the random utility model. A simplified random utility model is defined and approximated by a logit function. An iterative Weiszfeld‐type algorithm is designed to find the best location for a new facility using the logit model. Computational experiments show that the logit approximation yields a good location solution to the random utility model.
A Note on the Shift to a Service‐Based Economy and the Consequences for Regional Growth
Authors: Garcia‐Milá Teresa , McGuire Therese J.
Published: March 2003

Using data for the 50 U.S. states we relate industry‐specific employment growth rates over the period 1976–1989 to the industrial compositions of the states in 1976. We explore the idea that services and manufacturing are inextricably linked and that this interdependence may be beneficial to manufacturing (through knowledge spillovers, for example). Specifically, we test whether the manufacturing sector grew faster in service‐based economies. Our evidence does not support the idea of cross‐fertilization from services to manufacturing.
Wage Effects of Unemployment Duration and Frequency
Authors: Van Dijk Jouke , Folmer Hendrik
Published: March 2003

This paper analyzes the wage effects of unemployment duration and frequency for different regional labor market situations in The Netherlands using a simultaneous equations approach. The main finding is that unemployment duration has a significant negative effect and the frequency of unemployment a significant positive effect on wages in the core regions with relatively low unemployment rates. In the periphery with relatively high unemployment rates no significant effects of unemployment duration and frequency are found. It is argued that in the core regions unemployment duration is primarily viewed as a personal indicator of low productivity whereas in the periphery it is attributed to the situation in the regional labor market.
A Study of the Role of Regionalization in the Generation of Aggregation Error in Regional Input –Output Models
Authors: Lahr Michael L. , Stevens Benjamin H.
Published: March 2003

Although the need for aggregation in input –output modelling has diminished with the increases in computing power, an alarming number of regional studies continue to use the procedure. The rationales for doing so typically are grounded in data problems at the regional level. As a result many regional analysts use aggregated national input –output models and trade –adjust them at this aggregated level. In this paper, we point out why this approach can be inappropriate. We do so by noting that it creates a possible source of model misapplication (i.e., a direct effect could appear for a sector where one does not exist) and also by finding that a large amount of error (on the order of 100 percent) can be induced into the impact results as a result of improper aggregation. In simulations, we find that average aggregation error tends to peak at 81 sectors after rising from 492 to 365 sectors. Perversely, error then diminishes somewhat as the model size decreases further to 11 and 6 sectors. We also find that while region – and sector –specific attributes influence aggregation error in a statistically significantly manner, their influence on the amount of error generally does not appear to be large.
Spatial Dimensions of the Easterlin Hypothesis: Fertility Variations in Italy
Authors: Waldorf Brigitte , Franklin Rachel
Published: March 2003

The paper re–evaluates the Easterlin hypothesis in a multiregional context by conceptually and methodologically accounting for two processes of spatial interdependence in an open subnational demo–economic system: diffusion of fertility norms and values across space, and movements between labor markets. The empirical analysis estimates pooled cross–sectional, time–series models using data for 18 Italian regions from 1952 to 1995. The results suggest that accounting for spatial interdependencies is necessary to avoid model misspecifications. Moreover, the models lead to space–time landscapes of fertility elasticities that suggest, for the majority of space–time units, an inverse Easterlin effect for the diffusion component but support of the Easterlin hypothesis due to labor movements across space.
Gender, Discrimination, and Capability: Insights from Amartya Sen
Authors: Hicks Douglas A.
Published: March 2003

This essay critically examines economist and philosopher Amartya Sen’s writings as a potential resource in religious ethicists’ efforts to analyze discrimination against girls and women and to address their well‐being and agency. Delineating how Sen’s discussions of “missing women” and “gender and cooperative conflict” fit within his “capability approach” to economic and human development, the article explores how Sen’s methodology employs empirical analysis toward normative ends. Those ends expand the capability of girls and women to function in all aspects of their society. It concludes with a discussion of ways to engage Sen’s work within religious ethics.
The Anxiety of Inheritance: Reinhold Niebuhr and the Literal Truth of Original Sin
Authors: Rees Geoffrey
Published: March 2003

Widely regarded as the most influential proponent of the truth of original sin in the twentieth century, Reinhold Niebuhr worked hard to excise any “literalistic” element from his interpretation of the doctrine. In his attempt to “correct” the Augustinian tradition on original sin by purging it of all “literalistic errors,” however, Niebuhr assumed as his starting point the most characteristically modern objection to the doctrine: that birth is a thoroughly natural, animal, and morally meaningless event. As a result, Niebuhr unnecessarily constrained his vision of the dimensions of human freedom, and hence his description of the dynamic of anxiety and freedom that energizes sin. Through a careful reading of Reinhold Niebuhr's writings on original sin, in light of the truth that the end of human life is inseparable from its origins, a reappraisal and recovery of the meaningfulness of the assertion of original sin as a literal inheritance is possible. The result of such a reappraisal and recovery is an amplified insight into the existential anxiety that Niebuhr otherwise described so convincingly.
Book Acquisition in the Medieval Franciscan Order
Authors: Senocak Neslihan
Published: March 2003

The need to provide the friars with a sound theological formation for preaching and pastoral care forced the Franciscan order to establish a hierarchical network of convent schools in the Middle Ages. This inevitably necessitated the acquisition of books, both individually and institutionally, through the foundation of convent libraries. There were three main ways through which the friars enlarged their book collections: donations and bequests, purchase, and, to a limited extent, book production within the order. The evidence coming from the testamentary records and possession notes on the Franciscan manuscripts, combined with the testimony of the order's statutes, reveals the enthusiasm of the friars to collect and keep books, and the difficulties it prompted.
Assessing Teachers’ Beliefs about Literacy Acquisition: the Development of the Teachers’ Beliefs About Literacy Questionnaire (TBALQ)
Authors: Westwood Peter , Knight Bruce Allen , Redden Edward
Published: March 2003

In this article the authors describe the development of an instrument to measure change in teachers’ beliefs about how children acquire early literacy skills and how these skills should be taught. The questionnaire was originally designed for use in the evaluation of affective outcomes for teachers from literacy inservice training and development programmes. The content of the questionnaire has also proved to be of value as a focus for discussion in school staff meetings. Information is provided here on the design, development, validity and reliability of the instrument. The authors invite comment and feedback from researchers who may use the scale. The instrument may be particularly useful in countries where teachers’ beliefs and practices have been influenced to varying degrees by the ‘whole language’ versus ‘skills‐based instruction’ debate.
Training in phonological strategies improves Chinese dyslexic children’s character reading skills
Authors: Ho Connie Suk‐Han , Ma Rachel Nga‐Lun
Published: March 2003

This study investigated Chinese dyslexic children’s efficiency in employing phonological strategies (i.e. the use of orthography‐phonology correspondence rules) in reading and the effectiveness of training phonological strategies in improving Chinese dyslexic children’s reading performance. An Experimental Group of 15 Chinese dyslexic children received a five‐day intensive training in phonological strategies while a comparable Control Group did not. The results showed that Chinese dyslexic children did not use the phonological strategies as efficiently as Chinese average readers, and the training programme was effective in significantly improving the Experimental Group’s reading performance. This suggests that Chinese dyslexic children can benefit from training in phonological strategies.
Evaluation of the initial effects and implementation of Success For All in England
Authors: Hopkins David , Youngman Mick , Harris Alma , Wordsworth Judith
Published: March 2003

Success For All is a comprehensive programme for restructuring primary schools where students are ‘at risk’ of not developing functional literacy by the end of Key Stage 1 (age 7 years). The programme was developed at Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, USA, and uses research‐based approaches to curriculum, instruction, assessment and classroom management, with one‐to‐one tutoring being provided for those students falling behind in their reading. This paper reports on the initial implementation (September 1997 – March 1998) of the Success For All (SFA) reading/school improvement programme in a family of inner city primary schools in Nottingham, England. The purpose of the research was to provide empirical evidence on the process of implementation of SFA in England, and to assess how such an innovative programme could contribute to the British government’s National Literacy Strategy (DfEE, 1998). The main findings suggest that as a result of initial involvement in the SFA programme, students appear to have made as much progress in one term in reading as they would normally have been expected to make in one year, their motivation, behaviour, attitude to and skills in learning have also increased. Furthermore, teachers claim to have learned a great deal from SFA, particularly about the effective teaching of reading, co‐operative teaching strategies and their own professional development.
The effect of instruction on early nonword reading strategies
Authors: Deavers Rachael , Solity Jonathan , Kerfoot Sue
Published: March 2003

This paper reports the results of a study examining the role of early reading instruction on the nonword reading strategies employed by beginning readers. Three groups of children given different styles of reading instruction were asked to read a list of nonwords presented (a) in isolation and (b) using the clue word technique (Goswami, 1986, 1988). The three groups of children were following either (i) the Early Reading Research project (small units instruction), (ii) the National Literacy Project (instruction emphasising onset‐rime and rhyme awareness), or (iii) usual classroom practice (combined large and small units instruction). Children given small units instruction (Early Reading Research) were found to make significant use of grapheme‐phoneme correspondences (GPCs) and were more accurate than the other two groups of children at reading the nonword items. The National Literacy Project children demonstrated a preference for a rime‐based strategy, once familiarity with the analogous words was controlled, and made significantly more use of this strategy than the Early Reading Research children. The results suggest that early reading instruction does have a significant impact on early reading strategies and should be taken into account in future studies of this type.
How do general knowledge and reading strategies ability relate to reading comprehension of high school students at different educational levels?
Authors: Kozminsky Ely , Kozminsky Lea
Published: March 2003

The study examines the relationship between general knowledge, skills in applying reading strategies, and reading comprehension for ninth‐grade students at varying educational levels: academic, semi‐academic, vocational and learning disabilities. Two hundred and five students received a battery of tests evaluating their general knowledge, skills in applying four reading strategies (summary, self‐questioning, clarification and prediction), and two reading comprehension tests. The findings revealed differential contributions of general knowledge and strategy application to reading comprehension. Compared with the academic students, semi‐academics have deficient strategic skills. Vocational students, in addition to deficient strategic skills, have poor general knowledge, which further impedes their reading comprehension. The deficiency of students with learning disabilities goes beyond these two components. These results led us to recommend different foci of comprehension intervention for each group.
Reading the weather: ruling passions, numeracy and reading practices in an Australian farming community
Authors: Baynham Mike
Published: March 2003

Research on multi‐modality has expanded our understanding of reading: as well as reading written text, the social semiotic perspective of Kress and van Leeuwen suggests that we read images, and the work of Moss explores children watching television in terms of reading practices. Research in the New Literacy Studies has expanded both the notion of what counts as reading and where we look for reading practices. In this case study I will examine the reading practices of an unemployed teenage boy in an Australian farming community. I will show how one of his ruling passions, the weather, leads him to engage in a variety of reading practices (and associated writing practices) in a variety of semiotic modes, drawing in different ways on numeracy knowledge. These range from reading (and recording) rainfall levels, reading weather charts and weather reports on television and indeed reading the signs of weather changes in the environment surrounding the farm where he lives with his family. None of these are reading practices in the conventional written‐text‐oriented sense, yet all of them contribute to his ruling passion for reading the weather. I conclude this case study by arguing that both research on multi‐modality and the New Literacy Studies point in a similar direction: towards expanding our notions of what counts as reading and the contexts where reading occurs.
Estimating the Risk of Reoffending by using Exponential Mixture Models
Authors: Copas J. B. , Heydari F.
Published: March 2003

In deciding whether to release a prisoner on parole, the Parole Board is provided with a statistical score which estimates the chance that the prisoner will reoffend within the period of time that he or she would otherwise be in prison. This score is based on a survival analysis of data on a sample of releases from long-term prison sentences. To capture most reoffences which occur within 2 years of release, follow-up must continue for at least 3 years to allow for the delay between offence and conviction. We reanalyse the data by using a model which explicitly allows for this delay. The new analysis can be applied to data with a substantially shorter length of follow-up. This means that risk scores can be constructed from more up-to-date data and at less cost.
Models, Assumptions and Model Checking in Ecological Regressions
Authors: Gelman Andrew , Park David K. , Ansolabehere Stephen , Price Phillip N. , Minnite Lorraine C.
Published: March 2003

Ecological regression is based on assumptions that are untestable from aggregate data. However, these assumptions seem more questionable in some applications than in others. There has been some research on implicit models of individual data underlying aggregate ecological regression modelling. We discuss ways in which these implicit models can be checked from aggregate data. We also explore the differences in applications of ecological regressions in two examples: estimating the effect of radon on lung cancer in the United States and estimating voting patterns for different ethnic groups in New York City.
The Transition from University to Work: A Multilevel Approach to the Analysis of the Time to Obtain the First Job
Authors: Biggeri L. , Bini M. , Grilli L.
Published: March 2003

The aim of the paper is to characterize the factors that determine the transition from university to work as well as to evaluate the effectiveness of universities and course programmes with respect to the labour market outcomes of their graduates. The study is focused on the analysis of the time to obtain the first job, taking into account the graduates’ characteristics and the effects pertaining to course programmes and universities. For this a three-level discrete time survival model is used, where the logit of the hazard—conditionally on the random effects at course programme and university level—is a linear function of the covariates. The analysis is accomplished by using a large data set from a survey on job opportunities for the 1992 Italian graduates.
A Review and Discussion of Prospective Statistical Surveillance in Public Health
Authors: Sonesson Christian , Bock David
Published: March 2003

A review of methods suggested in the literature for sequential detection of changes in public health surveillance data is presented. Many researchers have noted the need for prospective methods. In recent years there has been an increased interest in both the statistical and the epidemiological literature concerning this type of problem. However, most of the vast literature in public health monitoring deals with retrospective methods, especially spatial methods. Evaluations with respect to the statistical properties of interest for prospective surveillance are rare. The special aspects of prospective statistical surveillance and different ways of evaluating such methods are described. Attention is given to methods that include only the time domain as well as methods for detection where observations have a spatial structure. In the case of surveillance of a change in a Poisson process the likelihood ratio method and the Shiryaev–Roberts method are derived.
Patterns and Trends in Occupational Attainment Of First Jobs in the Netherlands, 1930–1995: Ordinary Least Squares RegressionversusConditional Multinomial Logistic Regression
Authors: Dessens Jos A. G. , Jansen Wim , Ganzeboom Harry B. G. , Van Der Heijden Peter G. M.
Published: March 2003

This paper brings together the virtues of linear regression models for status attainment models formulated by second-generation social mobility researchers and the strengths of log-linear models formulated by third-generation researchers, into fourth-generation social mobility models, by using conditional multinomial logistic regression (CMLR). These CMLR models are capable of capturing the discrete and multidimensional nature of social mobility patterns (a characteristic of third-generation output) while reducing the number of parameters leading to parsimonious models (a characteristic of second-generation output). Using data from eight pooled surveys in the Netherlands, an extended Blau–Duncan status attainment model is formulated and analysed. The corresponding CMLR model is formulated incorporating general and specific inheritance effects. The final CMLR model gives a relatively parsimonious description of Dutch mobility patterns, similar to the extended Blau–Duncan model, at the same time offering the possibility of including specific effects where necessary. Effects of gender and education appear to be too complex to be captured by a single parameter.
Parameter Orthogonality in Mixed Regression Models for Survival Data
Authors: Hutton J. L. , Solomon P. J.
Published: March 2003

The implications of parameter orthogonality for the robustness of survival regression models are considered. The question of which of the proportional hazards or the accelerated life families of models would be more appropriate for analysis is usually ignored, and the proportional hazards family is applied, particularly in medicine, for convenience. Accelerated life models have conventionally been used in reliability applications. We propose a one-parameter family mixture survival model which includes both the accelerated life and the proportional hazards models. By orthogonalizing relative to the mixture parameter, we can show that, for small effects of the covariates, the regression parameters under the alternative families agree to within a constant. This recovers a known misspecification result. We use notions of parameter orthogonality to explore robustness to other types of misspecification including misspecified base-line hazards. The results hold in the presence of censoring. We also study the important question of when proportionality matters.