bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A theoretical framework for evaluating cryosphere services
Authors: Su Bo , Xiao Cunde , Chen Deliang
Published: March 2024

The cryosphere makes significant contributions to human well-being directly or indirectly and materially or spiritually, providing a wide array of benefits, i.e., cryosphere services. However, with the global warming, the diminishing cryosphere would profoundly impact, not only on climate systems, but also its functions and services to support our societies. Although there is a wealth of studies on cryospheric processes and mechanisms, the interaction between the cryosphere and other spheres, and the cryospheric disaster risk, the systematic research on cryosphere services is still in its early stage. There needs to be a more systematic theoretical framework and methodology to enable the valuation and management of cryosphere services. Here, we will systematically present our recent work about the development of theoretical framework and methodology system, as well as related case studies. we first present a classification system based on the current process-based understanding of their nature and sustainability. Then, three different methods (i.e., empirical-based, monetary-based, and emergy-based approaches) for evaluating cryosphere services, are systematically introduced, and illustrated by three case studies. Finally, to adapt to the changing cryosphere services and mitigate risks, we further propose the approach to enhance society’s resilience in the cryosphere. The theoretical framework and methodology system is conducive for conceptualizing, monitoring, assessing and managing cryosphere services, and can help enhance socio-ecological sustainability and human well-being over cryosphere-affected areas.
Reaction-induced fracturing during serpentinite carbonation promoted by selective dissolution of brucite
Authors: Uno Masaoki , Igarashi Taiki , Okamoto Atsushi
Published: March 2024

Although ultramafic rocks have a high potential for mineral carbonation, their low porosity and thereby slow reaction kinetics remain challenges for artificial mineral carbonation of ultramafic rocks. Field observations suggest that carbonation of ultramafic rocks proceeds with reaction-induced fracturing, caused by the solid volume increase during carbonation[e.g., 1,2]. However, such reaction-induced fracturing has not been clearly reproduced in laboratory settings for carbonation. Here we show a clear experimental example of macroscopic reaction-induced fracturing caused by carbonation of brucite-bearing serpentinite.Cylindrical cores (6 mm in diameter and 5 mm in height) of fine-grained brucite-bearing serpentinite were reacted with 1M NaHCO3 solution or CO2-saturated water at 90–200°C during batch experiments for one week. Clear macroscopic fractures were observed for samples reacted with NaHCO3 solution at 150 and 200°C. These samples were fractured by two types of tensile fractures: (a) diagonal fractures that cut the inside of the cylindrical samples, and (b) regularly spaced, vertical short fractures on the sample surface. Diagonal fractures are partly filled with magnesite and are cut by surficial vertical fractures. Reaction front is characterized by formation of porous serpentine that surround the original serpentine-brucite mixture. Magnesite-serpentine mixture further surrounds the porous serpentine, forming mesh texture-like magnesite-serpentine networks.Above observations suggest that selective dissolution of brucite at the reaction front increase the Mg concentration and pH in the local solution, leaving porous serpentine. Magnesite preferentially precipitates at pre-existing micro cracks, causing local volume increase. These reaction and volume increase exert tensile stress inside the sample, causing macroscopic diagonal fractures. The diagonal fractures promote fluid transport and reaction within the inner part of the sample. The volume increase inside the sample induces tensional stress on the surface of the sample, causing surficial vertical fractures, which further enhance carbonation reactions.We propose selective dissolution of brucite and preferential magnesite precipitation at pre-existing micro cracks induce macroscopic fracturing, create fluid flow paths and new reactive surface area, and accelerate carbonation of massive serpentinite. Such heterogeneous distribution of minerals with contrasting reactivity would be important for self-enhanced mineral carbonation. 1 Kelemen et al., 2011 Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences, 39, 545–576.2 Uno et al., 2022 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 119, e2110776118.
Spontaneous Generation of Alfven Waves by Bursty Interchange Magnetic Reconnection in the Solar Corona
Authors: Yang Liping , He Jiansen , Feng Xueshang , Li Hui , Guo Fan , Tian Hui , Shen Fang
Published: March 2024

Alfven waves contribute significantly to the solar coronal heating, the solar wind acceleration, as well as Alfv\'enic turbulence formation. As a universal process, magnetic reconnection has long been credited as a potentially crucial source of Alfven waves, but how magnetic reconnection trigger Alfven waves remains elusive. Here, with simulations of three-dimensional bursty interchange magnetic reconnection in the solar corona, for the first time, we find that Alfven waves are spontaneously excited in the reconnection sheet and propagate bi-directionally even along the unreconnected magnetic fields. The enhanced total pressure inherently carried by flux ropes gives kicks to the magnetic fields, and the nearly same propagation speed of the flux ropes and the kicks makes the kicks growing into the observed Alfven waves, which have large amplitudes and high frequencies, carrying substantial energy for heating the quiet corona and accelerating the solar wind. Our findings demonstrate that Alfven waves are natural products of three-dimensional intermittent magnetic reconnection, bringing its fundamental significance for energy release, transport, and conversion occurring in the plasma system.
Ground-based Remote Sensing of Aerosol, Clouds, Dynamics, and Precipitation in Antarctica - First results from a one-year campaign at Neumayer Station III in 2023
Authors: Radenz Martin , Engelmann Ronny , Henning Silvia , Schmithüsen Holger , Baars Holger , Frey Markus M. , Weller Rolf , Bühl Johannes , Jimenez Cristofer , Roschke Johanna , Muser Lukas , Wullenweber Nellie , Zeppenfeld Sebastian , Griesche Hannes , Wandinger Ulla , Seifert Patric
Published: March 2024

Novel ground-based remote sensing observations of aerosols and clouds have been carried out in Antarctica at the German Neumayer Station III (70.67°S, 8.27°W) for a whole year. The deployment of the mobile exploratory platform OCEANET-Atmosphere brought full ACTRIS aerosol and cloud profiling capabilities next to meteorological, radiation, and air chemistry in-situ observations at the Antarctic station. Neumayer III is currently the only station on a floating ice shelf that is manned throughout the year, providing excellent conditions for studying atmospheric effects on the Antarctic ice shelf.For that deployment the standard instrumentation of OCEANET-Atmosphere (PollyXT Raman polarization Lidar, a HATPRO microwave Radiometer, a Cimel sun and lunar photometer, and Radiation sensors) was extended by a Mira-35 cloud radar, a scanning LITRA-S Doppler lidar and a Parsivel² optical disdrometer. Together, these instruments brought the full ACTRIS aerosol and cloud profiling capabilities to a region where sophisticated ground-based observations were not available. The synergy of the different instruments allows for detailed retrievals of aerosol and cloud properties, such as cloud-relevant aerosol properties, liquid droplet properties and ice crystal concentrations.While data analysis is ongoing, three scientific highlights have already been identified during austral fall and winter, namely:Observations of a persistent shallow mixed-phase cloud embedded in a plume of advected marine aerosol. State of the art microphysical retrievals are used to obtain aerosol and cloud microphysical properties. Closure between cloud-relevant aerosol particles and precipitating ice crystals was achieved, demonstrating that the cloud formed in an aerosol-limited environment.
Two extraordinary warm air intrusions: One with intense snowfall produced the equivalent of 10% of the yearly snow accumulation, a second one with record high temperatures and heavy icing due to supercooled drizzle.
Omnipresent aerosol layers in the stratosphere, contributing almost 50% to the aerosol optical depth of around 0.06 at 500nm. Lidar-derived optical signatures revealed sulphate aerosol in the stratosphere - most likely linked to the Hunga Tonga eruption in 2022.
We will present an overview of the campaign, the three highlights and provide an outlook on potential future usage of the dataset.
Predicting Food-Security Crises in the Horn of Africa Using Machine Learning
Authors: Busker Tim , van den Hurk Bart , de Moel Hans , van den Homberg Marc , van Straaten Chiem , A. Odongo Rhoda , C.J.H. Aerts Jeroen
Published: March 2024

Food insecurity is a global concern resulting from various complex processes and a diverse range of drivers. Due to its complexity, it is one of the most challenging drought impacts to predict. In this study, we introduce a novel machine learning model designed to forecast food crises in the Horn of Africa up to 12 months in advance. We trained an “XGBoost” model using more than 20 different input datasets to capture key food security drivers such as drought, economic shocks, conflicts and livelihood vulnerability. The model shows a promising ability to predict food security dynamics several months in advance (R2>0.6, three months in advance). Notably, it accurately predicted 20% of crisis onsets in pastoral regions (n = 84) and 40% of crisis onsets in agro-pastoral regions (n = 23) with a 3-month lead time. We compared these results to the established FEWS NET early warning system, and found a similar performance over these regions. However, our model is clearly less skilled in predicting food security for crop-farming regions than FEWS NET. This study underscores the importance of integrating machine learning into operational early-warning systems like FEWS NET and expanding these techniques to the continental or global-scale.   
Uncertainties in the projection of dynamic sea level in CMIP6 and FGOALS-g3 large ensemble
Authors: Jin Chenyang , Liu Hailong , Lin Pengfei , Li Yiwen
Published: March 2024

Decision-makers need reliable projections of future sea level change for risk assessment. Untangling the sources of uncertainty in sea level projections will help narrow the projection uncertainty. Here, we separate and quantify the contributions of internal variability, intermodel uncertainty, and scenario uncertainty to the ensemble spread of dynamic sea level (DSL) at both the basin and regional scales using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and FGOALS-g3 large ensemble (LEN) data. For basin-mean DSL projections, intermodel uncertainty is the dominant contributor (>55%) in the near- (2021-2040), mid- (2041-2060), and long-term (2081-2100) relative to the climatology of 1995-2014.  Internal variability is of secondary importance in the near- and mid-term until scenario uncertainty exceeds it in all basins except the Indian Ocean in the long-term. For regional-scale DSL projections, internal variability is the dominant contributor (60~100%) in the Pacific Ocean, Indian Ocean and western boundary of the Atlantic Ocean, while intermodel uncertainty is more important in other regions in the near-term. The contribution of internal variability (intermodel uncertainty) decreases (increases) in most regions from mid-term to long-term. Scenario uncertainty becomes important after emerging in the Southern, Pacific, and Atlantic oceans. The signal-to-noise (S/N) ratio maps for regional DSL projections show that anthropogenic DSL signals can only emerge from a few regions. Assuming that model differences are eliminated, the perfect CMIP6 ensemble can capture more anthropogenic regional DSL signals in advance. These findings will help establish future constraints on DSL projections and further improve the next generation of climate models.
The Influence of Remedial Actions on Ambient Dose Rates in Fukushima Forests
Authors: Anderson Donovan , Kato Hiroaki , Onda Yuichi
Published: March 2024

This study evaluates the long-term impact of government-led decontamination efforts on air dose rates in Fukushima forests affected by the 2011 nuclear disaster. While decontamination successfully mitigated radiation risks, its influence on air dose rates over time remains understudied, particularly in comparison to non-remediated forests. A comprehensive assessment spanning 2013 to 2020 was conducted, utilizing governmental decontamination data and monitoring adjacent untreated forests. Despite initial increases post-decontamination, air dose rates generally stabilized, following a trend indicative of physical decay. The study found that dominate tree species in forests influenced dose rate reduction. Broadleaf forests maintained lower post-decontamination dose rates compared to untreated counterparts, while cedar forests experienced increased post-decontamination rates, reverting to pre-decontamination levels. Both forest types exhibited similar annual decrease trends due to physical and environmental decay, with red pine in non-decontaminated forests showing the slowest decline. Analysis of radioactive cesium concentrations in organic matter and soil revealed a gradual transfer from organic matter to soil. Decontamination reduced concentrations in organic material but had no discernible effect on soil concentrations, indicating an ongoing transfer of radioactive materials from organic matter to soil. This emphasizes the need for future remediation strategies to assess local natural restoration potential and this study offers crucial insights for refining forest decontamination strategies and underscores the importance of factoring in ecosystem dynamics in radiation remediation planning.
Crust and Upper Mantle S Wave Velocity Structure in Turkey Based on Ambient Noise Tomography
Authors: Wang Peng , Chen Juqing , Chen Xiaofei
Published: March 2024

Turkey belongs to the initial collision stage of the Tethys tectonic domain. The western part of Turkey experiences the subduction of the African plate, while the eastern part suffers the collision with the Arabian plate. In addition, extensive volcanic activity and tectonic uplift are also distributed in this region. To understand the relationship between these surface phenomena and underground structure, it is necessary to obtain reliable and precise velocity structure in the region. We collect continuous waveform data from 688 stations in the region and obtain Rayleigh wave dispersion curves for periods between 4 and 100 s based on frequency-Bessel transform dispersion analysis. We then perform quasi-Newton inversion to calculate the S wave velocity structure between 0 and 200 km. Subsequently, the reliability of the results is verified using a model validation method based on waveform simulation. Our results elucidate the layered structure and distribution of the lithosphere asthenosphere boundary beneath the region, which is of great significance for a profound understanding of the tectonic evolution process in the region. At the same time, it also provides reliable data support for subsequent waveform inversion and earthquake mechanism research in the region.
Sustainable Phosphate Mining: Hydrogeological Insights and Numerical Modeling of the Beni Amir Phosphate Deposit, Morocco
Authors: Heddoun Ouissal , Ait Lemkademe Anasse , Benzaazoua Mostafa
Published: March 2024

The phosphate mining from the Beni Amir deposit, located in the southern part of Central Morocco, presents many difficulties, due to the presence of groundwater, which can either partially or completely submerge the phosphate layers. This challenge becomes particularly pronounced in the context of climate change conditions and water scarcity.To address these issues, a hydrogeological study has been conducted aiming to understand the aquifer’s function and ensure sustainable phosphate extraction from the deposit. Initially, geological, and hydrogeological information from 692 boreholes were collected and analyzed to develop a 3D hydro-stratigraphic conceptual model, which indicate that approximately 73% of the deposit is at least partially submerged by the groundwater, while the remaining 27% constitutes the dry zone.Additionally, a numerical model was developed and calibrated using the MODFLOW code. Calibration was accomplished under both steady-state and transient conditions by adjusting model parameters until the model's solution aligns with known data, utilizing 580 observed groundwater levels measured in 2023 and 7 pumping wells. The model’s performance was evaluated using R2, RMSE, and NRMSE coefficients, showing high accuracy and consistent model performance.The hydrogeological model was executed to evaluate the effects of the dewatering process in the surrounding mining areas, revealing a high impact on groundwater resources and the water table level. These findings will be employed to strategize well-considered plans for optimal groundwater pumping and mine dewatering strategies, ensuring the safety of mining operations throughout different stages of mine development.
Updating the assessment of climate change at decadal scale and consolidating with CMIP6 future projections
Authors: Molina María Ofelia , Soares Pedro MM , Lima Miguel M , Lima Daniela CA , Gaspar Tomás , Trigo Ricardo
Published: March 2024

NASA’s scientist James E. Hansen (named ‘The father of climate change’) has become widely recognized due to his many relevant contributions to climate change topics. In particular, his studies of recent changes of temperature at the decadal-scale published in 2012 and 2016, detected the emergence of a new kind of summertime extremely hot events which would not have occurred in the absence of global warming. Here, we update and extend the analysis of these studies using the latest reanalysis data from ECMWF (ERA5) from 1951 to 2020, at a higher spatial resolution. In addition, we put these results in context of state-of-the-art climate change modelling studies by considering future climate projections through the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) Global Climate Models (GCMs).Climate spatio-temporal variability for each continent is studied by evaluating the decadal frequency distributions of monthly 2-m temperature anomalies for the 1951-2020 historical period and for 2015-2100 future period. To achieve this, monthly averaged daily temperature data from ERA5, and the historical, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 future climate scenarios from an ensemble of CMIP6 GCMs are used. For producing spatial analyses, all ERA5 and CMIP6 data were previously regridded to a common 100 km lat/lon regular grid using conservative remapping.The results of ERA5 show a decadal shift in the mean temperature anomalies towards warmer values at continental scale, much more pronounced in the last decade (2011-2020), and larger in summer than in winter. By using a frequency distribution-based score, it is seen that the CMIP6 model ensemble is able to reproduce this historical warming, at a climatological timescale, with a large degree of agreement for all continents. Furthermore, climate projections strongly indicate that this warming will continue in the future under any climate change scenario and will be larger by the end of the century. The two most likely scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0) show significant evidences that extremely hot temperatures (anomalies of more than three standard deviations (3σ) warmer than the climatology of the 1951–1980 base period) will become the normal climate in Africa and South America regions for the 2071-2100 period. In this work, it is seen that the regional mean temperature anomalies will increase in weak, moderate and strong forcing scenarios, reaching climatic extremes with expected major implications on the water cycle, agriculture, ecosystems, society and human health.This work was funded by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020 and the DRI/India/0098/2020 project (https://doi.org/10.54499/DRI/India/0098/2020).
Observing the biological carbon pump of the twilight zone in the South China Sea
Authors: Huang Bangqin , Xu Chao , Huang Yibin
Published: March 2024

The biological carbon pump (BCP) is a key mechanism sustaining ocean carbon sequestration and thus significantly influences atmospheric CO2 concentration. However, most of the key processes of the BCP, particularly in the twilight zone, remain poorly constrained. In this study, we use multiple approaches to constrain the key BCP processes throughout the water column in the South China Sea (SCS), including carbon export, remineralization and sequestration. Firstly, we calculated the small particulate organic carbon (POC) flux exported via the mixed layer pump (MLP) by biogeochemical profiling floats (BGC-float), which are typically ignored in low-latitude regions. We further combined three independent approaches, including BGC-float observation, in vivo reduction of the tetrazolium salt by the cellular electron transport system (in vivo INT), and the synthesis of prokaryotic respiration (PR) determined by radiolabeled leucine incorporation and zooplankton respiration (ZR) empirically estimated from the biomass (PR+ZR), to constrained the twilight zone remineralization (TZR) in the SCS. To reconcile methodological discrepancies, we estimated the possible range of carbon supply by integrating comprehensive carbon sources, including sinking POC flux, dissolved organic carbon input, lateral transport, dark carbon fixation, and active carbon transport by zooplankton migration. We find the in vivo INT approach may overestimate the TZR, while the TZR measured by BGC-float and PR+ZR approaches can be balanced with the total carbon sources. Finally, we further calculate the time-series POC flux at 1000 m by using the optical sediment trap equipped on the BGC-float, which indicates the real carbon sequestration flux and can be isolated from the atmosphere at the time scale of centuries to millennia. Our study provides new insights of the BCP and highlights the importance of inter-disciplinary and integrative process studies for constraining biogeochemical processes.
Soil microsites controls N2O production and emission in undisturbed soils
Authors: Yan Zhifeng , Chang Baoxuan
Published: March 2024

Soil structures regulate the production and emission of N2O from soils mainly through influencing substrate availability and gas diffusion. However, the respective impacts of substrate availability and gas diffusion and their response to moisture changes remain elusive. This study conducted laboratory incubation experiments with disturbed (sieved) and undisturbed (intact) soil cores under different soil moisture levels (i.e., 40, 60, 80 and 100% water filled pore space (WPFS)). Soil N2O fluxes were continuously monitored over a 21-day incubation period, during which O2 concentration profile was occasionally measured and relative soil gas diffusivity was measured at the end of experiments. The results show that the N2O fluxes from the disturbed soil cores were 2~25 times higher, respectively, than those from undisturbed cores, which are similar to field observations. Nevertheless, the difference in the relative soil gas diffusivity between them was not obvious, especially under high moisture conditions. Therefore, the overestimated soil N2O emission from sieved soil experiments was attributed to increased C availability caused by disturbance rather than changes in gas diffusivity. Additional incubation experiments with 15N tracing further demonstrated the key impacts of soil microsites on N2O production and emission. Overall, this study highlighted the physical protection of soil microsites on carbon sequestration and N2O mitigation.
Intensified Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a warming climate
Authors: Li Shujun , Wu Lixin , Wang Yiting
Published: March 2024

The Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) is a basin-scale natural mode of the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Atlantic, exerting a global impact, including contribution to the multidecadal Sahel drought and subsequent recovery and the post-1998 global warming hiatus. How greenhouse warming affects AMV remains unclear. Here, using models with multi-century-long outputs of future climate, we find an intensified AMV under greenhouse warming. Surface warming and freshwater input from sea ice melt increase surface buoyancy, leading to a slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). Reduced vertical mixing associated with the suppressed oceanic deep convection results in a thinned mixed layer and its variability, favoring stronger AMV SST variability. Further, a weakened AMOC and associated meridional heat advection prolong the lifespan of the AMV, providing a long time for the AMV to grow. Thus, multidecadal global surface fluctuations and the associated climate extremes are likely to be more intense.  
Detection of urban effects on precipitation in the Seoul metropolitan area, South Korea
Authors: Hong Seong-Ho , Jin Han-Gyul , Baik Jong-Jin
Published: March 2024

With growing urban population and expanding urban areas, the importance of understanding urban effects on precipitation keeps increasing. This study attempts to detect urban effects on precipitation in the Seoul Metropolitan Area (SMA), South Korea by analyzing hourly rain gauge data during 2005–2020. Precipitation events are categorized according to 850-hPa wind directions, and the precipitation increases from the upwind to downwind regions are examined for different duration and intensity classes of precipitation events. The downwind precipitation increase is largest in summer (39%), especially in August (64%). The August precipitation is analyzed in detail. Precipitation statistically significantly increases in Seoul for weak winds and 25–50 km downwind of the center of Seoul for westerly winds, and the precipitation increases are largest in the afternoon. For the precipitation increases, the increases in frequency and intensity of precipitation events are responsible. Short-duration and heavy precipitation events associated with small-sized precipitation systems initiated within the SMA are mainly responsible for the precipitation increases. The downwind precipitation increase also occurs for southwesterly, southerly, and southeasterly winds, but the increases are associated with large-sized precipitation systems.
Can we identify dominant hydrological mechanisms in ungauged catchments?
Authors: Prieto Cristina , Le Vine Nataliya , Kavetski Dmitri , Fenicia Fabrizio , Scheidegger Andreas , Vitolo Claudia
Published: March 2024

Hydrological modelling of ungauged catchments, which lack observed streamflow data, is an important practical goal in hydrology. A major challenge is to identify a model structure that reflects the hydrological processes relevant to the catchment of interest. Paraphrasing a well-known adage, “all models are wrong, but some model-mechanisms (process representations) might be useful.”We extend a method previously introduced for mechanism identification in gauged basins, by formulating the Bayesian inference equations in the space of (regionalized) flow indices principal components and by accounting for posterior parameter uncertainty. We use a flexible hydrological model to generate candidate mechanisms and model structures. Then, we use statistical hypothesis testing to identify the "dominant" (more a posteriori probable) hydrological mechanism. We assume that the error in the regionalization of flow indices principal components dominates the error of the hydrological model structure.The method is illustrated in 92 catchments from northern Spain. We treat 16 out of the 92 catchments as ungauged. We use 624 model-structures from FUSE (flexible hydrological model framework). The case study includes real data and synthetic experiments.The findings show that routing is among the most identifiable processes, whereas percolation and unsaturated zone processes are the least identifiable. The probability of making an identification (correct or wrong), remains stable at ~25%, both in the real and in the synthetic experiments. In the synthetic experiments, where the “true” mechanism is known, we can evaluate the reliability, i.e., the probability of identifying the true mechanism when the method makes an identification. Reliability varies between 60%-95% depending on the magnitude of the combined regionalization and hydrological error. The study contributes perspectives on hydrological mechanism identification under data-scarce conditions.Prieto et al. (2022) An Exploration of Bayesian Identification of Dominant Hydrological Mechanisms in Ungauged Catchments, WRR, 58(3), doi:10.1029/2021WR030705.
Joint occurrence of heatwaves and ozone pollution and increased health risks in Beijing, China: role of synoptic weather pattern and urbanization 
Authors: Zong Lian
Published: March 2024

Heatwaves (HWs) paired with higher ozone (O3) concentration at the surface level pose a serious threat to human health. Their combined modulation of synoptic patterns and urbanization remains unclear. Using 5 years of summertime temperature and O3 concentration observation in Beijing, this study explored potential drivers of compound HWs and O3 pollution events and their public health effects. Three favorable synoptic weather patterns were identified to dominate the compound HWs and O3 pollution events. These weather pat- terns contributing to enhance those conditions are characterized by sinking air motion, low boundary layer height, and high temperatures. Under the synergy of HWs and O3 pollution, the mortality risk from all non-accidental causes increased by approximately 12.31 % (95 % confidence interval: 4.66 %, 20.81 %). Urbanization caused a higher risk of HWs and O3 in urban areas than at rural stations. Particularly, due to O3 depletion caused by NO titration at traffic and urban stations, the health risks related to O3 pollution in different regions are charac- terized as follows: suburban stations > urban stations > rural stations > traffic stations. In general, favorable synoptic patterns and urbanization enhanced the health risk of these compound events in Beijing by 33.09 % and 18.95 %, respectively. Our findings provide robust evidence and implications for forecasting compound HWs and O3 pollution events and their health risks in Beijing or in other urban areas all over the world that have high concentrations of O3 and high-density populations.
Land-use Intensity Reversed the Role of Cropland in Ecological Restoration over the World's Most Severe Soil Erosion Region
Authors: Lan Xin , Liu Zhiyong
Published: March 2024

Long-term extending cultivation activities resulted in the world’s worst soil erosion on the Chinese Loess Plateau. By converting cropland into vegetated land, the Grain for Green Project (GfGP)—the world’s largest investment revegetation project—effectively alleviates the soil erosion on the  Loess Plateau. However, during the GfGP implementation, the positive effect of cropland to the revegetation and soil erosion control has been underestimated to date, hindering a comprehensive evaluation to the effect of cropland on ecological restoration. Here, we evaluated the effect of the GfGP on soil erosion control across the  Loess Plateau, analyzed the dominant driver of the  Loess Plateau vegetation greening, and further identified the contributions of croplands to this world’s largest revegetation project. We found that the vegetation of the  Loess Plateau was significantly improved and its leaf area increased by 1.23 × 105 km2 after the implementation of the GfGP, which contributed 42% to the decrease of the  Loess Plateau soil loss. Among them, our results show that cropland contributed 39.3% to the increased leaf areas of the  Loess Plateau, higher than grassland (36.3%) and forestland (14.3%). With the reduction of agricultural area, the contribution of cropland to the increased leaf areas in the  Loess Plateau was still the largest, which was mainly due to the increase in cropland utilization intensity. This study highlights the significance of the GfGP in soil erosion control and revises our understanding of the role of cropland in ecological restoration and society development.
Spatial and temporal variation in dynamic mantle support of the Antarctic plate: Implications for ice sheet evolution
Authors: Dunn Aisling , White Nicky , Larter Robert , Holdt Megan , Stephenson Simon , Tien Chia-Yu
Published: March 2024

Accurately constraining past and future ice sheet evolution requires a quantitative understanding of key boundary conditions in ice sheet models, including topography and heat flux. Both of these conditions are in part moderated by spatially and temporally variable mantle dynamics. This study exploits an interdisciplinary approach to probe the mantle beneath Antarctica to better understand sub-crustal processes. First, observed bathymetry and topography are corrected for isostatic effects to isolate the residual topographic signal, a proxy for dynamic mantle support. In this way, a comprehensive suite of oceanic residual depth (n = 1120) and continental residual elevation (n = 237) spot measurements are calculated. Secondly, basaltic rare earth element concentrations acquired from an augmented database of Neogene volcanic samples (n = 264) are inversely modelled to determine melt fraction as a function of depth. Thus, we constrain mantle potential temperature and depth to the top of the melting column (i.e. lithospheric thickness). Finally, results from these approaches are interpreted alongside other geological and geophysical data, including free air gravity anomalies and mantle tomographic models to understand present day mantle-lithosphere interactions. Sequence stratigraphic analysis along continental margins (e.g. offshore from Dronning Maud Land and the Wilkes and Aurora Subglacial Basins) is also used to constrain temporal changes in mantle-induced vertical plate motion. Robust observations in the oceanic realm evidence dynamic support beneath the central Scotia Sea, the Marie Byrd Seamounts, in the vicinity of the Astrid Ridge, and beneath the Emerald Fracture Zone. Residual topography measurements define the extent to which these dynamic swells continue onto the continent, with 1-2 km of mantle support throughout West Antarctica, the Transantarctic Mountains, and the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains. Collectively, these results highlight considerable spatial and temporal variation in dynamic mantle support throughout Antarctica, making it imperative to account for such mantle-lithosphere interactions when modelling the onset and evolution of glaciation.
Geology and tectonic structures of the Michelangelo (H12) quadrangle
Authors: Buoninfante Salvatore , Galluzzi Valentina , Ferranti Luigi , Milano Maurizio , Palumbo Pasquale
Published: March 2024

Geological cartography and structural analysis are essential for understanding Mercury’s geological history and tectonic processes. This work focuses on the geological and structural analysis of the Michelangelo quadrangle (H12), located at latitudes 22.5°S-65°S and longitudes 180°E-270°E. We present the first geological map of H12 at 1:3,000,000 scale, based on the photointerpretation of the MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging (MESSENGER) Mercury Dual Imaging System (MDIS) imagery. The present study is a contribution to the 1:3M geological map series, planned to identify targets to be observed at high resolution during the ESA-JAXA BepiColombo mission [1]. We mapped tectonic structures and geological contacts using the MDIS derived basemaps, characterized by an average resolution of 166 m/pixel. Linear features are subdivided into large craters (crater rim diameter > 20 km), small craters (5 km < crater rim diameter < 20 km), subdued or buried craters, certain or uncertain thrusts, certain or uncertain faults, wrinkle ridges and irregular pits. Geological contacts, mapped as certain or approximate, delimit the geological units grouped into three classes of crater materials (c1-c3) based on degradation degree, and plains (smooth, intermediate and intercrater plains).Michelangelo appears as a densely cratered quadrangle dominated by degraded crater materials (c2) and intermediate plains. We identified two main regional thrust system trending NW-SE and NE-SW. We found that many lobate scarps developed at the edges of ancient, large impact basins. Clear examples of such tectonic structures in the Michelangelo quadrangle are provided by the Beethoven basin (20.8°S–236.1°E) or by the Vincente-Yakovlev basin (52.6°S–197.9°E). We propose a thick-skinned tectonic model according to which the lobate scarps were formed after positive reactivation of previous impact-related normal faults, due to the contractional tectonic regime deriving from the global contraction. Evidence of thick-skinned tectonics on Mercury are provided by the presence of fault systems exceeding the basin rim, and by the estimated rooting depth of thrusts bordering large basins (e.g., Discovery Rupes, Soya Rupes).Following [2], we found that the NW-SE system largely borders the southwestern edge of the HMR. We also show that the volcanic vents on Mercury are often associated with impact craters and/or lobate scarps (e.g., [3,4]), which can be considered as possible preferential areas for magma uprising. Acknowledgements: We gratefully acknowledge funding from the Italian Space Agency (ASI) under ASI-INAF agreement 2017-47-H.0. References:[1] Galluzzi, V. et al. (2021). LPI Contrib., 2610.[2] Galluzzi, V. et al. (2019). J. Geophys. Res., 124(10), 2543-2562.[3] Thomas, R. J. et al., (2014). J. Geophys. Res., 119, 2239-2254.[4] Jozwiak, L. M. et al., (2018). Icarus, 302, 191-212. 
Effect of Climate Change on Water Level and Surface Area of Lake Iznik (NW Türkiye) 
Authors: Erkoç Muharrem Hilmi , Doğan Uğur , Keser Büşra , Bayram Bülent
Published: March 2024

The aim of the study is to investigate the changes in the water level and surface area of Lake Iznik in Northwestern Anatolia, Türkiye, between 2014 and 2024. In this context, High-Resolution Satellite images provided by European Space Agency (ESA)'s Sentinel-2 are used to determine the lake surface area, and satellite altimetry data provided by Copernicus Land Service is utilized to determine the lake water level. Additionally, temperature and precipitation data from a meteorological station near the lake are obtained from the Turkish State Meteorological Service due to their significant impact on the lake's water level and surface area changes.The estimated trend for the change in the water level from 2014 to 2024 is -23±1.9 cm/yr, and the change in the surface area trend is estimated as -1.2±0.2 km²/yr. The results indicate a decrease in both the lake's water level and surface area. Furthermore, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPIE) are calculated from precipitation and temperature data obtained from meteorological stations near the lake. These indices reveal a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperatures in the Lake Iznik basin over the past 10 years.Consequently, it is observed that the changes in the water level and surface of Lake Iznik are influenced by climate change, and hence,necessary measures need to be taken for the conservation and sustainable use of the lake.
The Greenhouses Affect
Authors: Öncü Gülperi Selcan
Published: March 2024

Recently, in the news programs on TV channels, we frequently come across news such as the melting of glaciers, weather events such as sudden and heavy rains and storms, the increase in atmospheric temperature and the increase in forest fires. At the same time, we observe some of these events in our immediate surroundings. There is also a sentence frequently mentioned by the public: the seasons are changing. The students asked questions such as why all these events occur and what has changed between the past and the present.We all know that they need to understand global warming in order to understand these changes, but as a science teacher, I guided them on how to achieve this so that they can have the ability to use experimental methods within the project-based learning approach. They first conducted a preliminary literature review and then designed an experiment. In the experiment, they tested the hypothesis that the water inside a glass bowl covered with black cardboard heats up more than the transparent glass bowl. Thus, they tried to investigate the impact of greenhouse gases on climate change. In the experiment, two glass bell jars were used to represent the atmospheric layer. The inside of one of them was covered with pieces cut from black cardboard at intervals. Black cardboard was used to represent greenhouse gases because black color absorbs light. The same amount of water was filled into two beakers of the same size. A thermometer was placed inside them and the bell jars were turned upside down on the beakers and closed. Two thermometers were used to measure the temperature of the water in the beakers. The first mechanism (not coated) is also the control group. The second device (covered with black cardboard) is the experimental group. In the experiment and observation phase, the independent variable is the bell jars and the dependent variable is the water temperature. Control variables are bell jar size, beaker size, amount of water and environmental conditions. After the installation of the mechanisms, the initial temperature of the water was measured and recorded. The students carried out this research by placing the mechanisms in a sunny place on a sunny day. They recorded the data in tables they prepared at certain time intervals.Later, they shared the results with the participants at the science festival. Thus, they tried to explain the causes of the global warming problem and draw attention to the necessary measures to prevent this problem.
Towards scientific forecasting of magmatic eruptions
Authors: Acocella Valerio , Ripepe Maurizio , Rivalta Eleonora , Peltier Aline , Galetto Federico , Joseph Erouscilla
Published: March 2024

Forecasting eruptions is a fundamental goal of volcanology. However,difficulties in identifying eruptive precursors, fragmented approachesand lack of resources make eruption forecasting difficult to achieve.In this Review, we explore the first-order scientific approaches thatare essential to progress towards forecasting the time and location ofmagmatic eruptions. Forecasting in time uses different monitoringtechniques, depending on the conduit-opening mode. Ascendingmagma can create a new conduit (closed-conduit eruptions), usea previously open conduit (open-conduit eruptions) or flow below asolidified magma plug (semi-open-conduit eruptions). Closed-conduiteruptions provide stronger monitoring signals often detected monthsin advance, but they commonly occur at volcanoes with poorlyknown pre-eruptive behaviour. Open-conduit eruptions, associatedwith low-viscosity magmas, provide more subtle signals oftendetected only minutes in advance, although their higher eruptionfrequency promotes more testable approaches. Semi-open-conduiteruptions show intermediate behaviours, potentially displaying clearpre-eruptive signals days in advance and often recurring repeatedly.However, any given volcano can experience multiple conduit-openingmodes, sometimes simultaneously, requiring combinations offorecasting approaches. Forecasting the location of vent openingrelies on determining the stresses controlling magma propagation,deformation and seismic monitoring. The use of physics-based modelsto assimilate monitoring data and observations will substantiallyimprove forecasting, but requires a deeper understanding ofpre-eruptive processes and more extensive monitoring data. 
Fluvial fans as stratigraphic recorders of suborbital climate cyclicity: an example from the Lima fluvial fan in Peru
Authors: Viveen Willem , Sanjurjo-Sanchez Jorge , Bravo-Lembcke Gustavo , Uribe-Ventura Rodrigo
Published: March 2024

Fluvial fans, as opposed to alluvial fans, have only been recognised over the past two decades as important end members in the classification of alluvial-fluvial landforms. There is still a lack of knowledge regarding the factors driving their formation, their geomorphology, stratigraphic build-up and significance as quantitative recorders of terrestrial (sub)orbital climate change. Here, we present a stratigraphical and grain-size analysis of ~5,000 gravel clasts of the Lima fluvial fan in Peru. An age-depth, and derived sedimentation rate, model was constructed by means of Monte Carlo Markov Chain iterations of thirteen, new luminescence ages of the fluvial fan. Our data showed near-continuous sedimentation from 121.7 ± 4 ka at the base of the exposed stratigraphic section at 10 m above sea level (asl) until 6.3 ± 1.6 ka at the top (62.5 m asl). Stratigraphical unconformities, both erosional and non-erosional, systematically coincided with the initiation of coarsening upward sequences as shown by increases in the D50 grain size. The unconformities and coarsening-upward sequences, in turn, coincided with both orbital and suborbital pluvial periods, as known from Peruvian lake and speleothem records. The precession cycle was the primary driver for increased precipitation, runoff and modelled sedimentation rates during the lower half of the last glacial period, coinciding with the Ouki and Salinas pluvial periods. Imprinted on the precession cycle, one-to-five-ka long suborbital pluvial periods constituted a secondary driver, coinciding with the stratigraphical unconformities and increases in D50 grain size. Throughout the Salinas wet phase, the amplitude of the precession cycle diminished and, at the end of it, the precession cycle ceased altogether to be a driver for fluvial sedimentation. From 50 ka onwards, stratigraphical unconformities, coarsening upward cycles and an increase in sedimentation rate systematically coincided with the onset of the Atlantic Heinrich events, which have been recognised as three-to-five-ka long pluvial events in the aforementioned lake and speleothem records. Most fluvial sedimentation events have been recognised in fragmentary records of other fluvial systems in Peru, but the Lima fan constitutes the most complete fluvial record to date. As such, the Lima stratigraphical record shows the value of fluvial fans as quantitative recorders of fluvial landscape change due to last glacial climate cyclicity.              