Latvijas lauksaimniecības preču un pārtikas produktu ārējās tirdzniecības plūsmu modelēšana importa atkarības mazināšanai = Modelling of Latvian Trade Flows in Agricultural Commodities and Processed Foods to Reduce Import Dependency
Authors:   ,   Latvia University of Life Sciences and Technologies, Hazners Juris 
Published: January 2023

Author of thesis MMath, MBA Juris Hāzners Topic of thesis „Modelling of Latvian trade flows in agricultural commodities and processed foods to reduce import dependency”. Hypothesis: By conducting an in - depth analysis of Latvia's agricultural production and food processing, it is possible to recognize those sectors in which dependence on imports can be reduced. The aim of the thesis is to identify the sectors of agricultural production and food processing with the potential to reduce import dependency and based on modelling the flows of commodities and processed foods to elaborate recommendations for the exploring these opportunities Proposed and performed tasks to reach the aim of the thesis 1. A review of scientific and theoretical foundations on international trade flows, concepts and models. 2. Examination of the food security aspects affecting the foreign trade balance. 3. Analysis of the food security in Latvia. 4. Analysis of the foreign trade flows of Latvian agricultural commodities and processed foods with the application of econometric models and trade indices. To reach the research aim the study is structured in four chapters with subchapters. The chapter one describes the legal framework of international trade, discusses the history of international trade theory and provides an overview of the methods used in the analysis of international trade. Theoretical foundations are provided for the methods chosen to assess the competitiveness of broader product groups, as well as inter-industry and intra-industry trade. The development of gravity models in relation to various data panels and their estimators, as well as their use in forecasting trade flows is considered. Theoretical basis for the use of input-output analysis to determine the economic impact of a hypothetical reduction in imports is provided. The chapter two analyses the aspects of food security in selected countries and regions of the world, including the determinants of food self-sufficiency policy choices such as hunger levels, the political situation and geographical location. In the chapter three, Latvia's sufficiency in agricultural commodities and processed foods is estimated, compiling detailed national food balances and determining the levels of food self-sufficiency and import dependence in the main product groups. The level of ethnocentrism of Latvian consumers is determined. In the chapter four, the analysis of Latvia's foreign trade is performed, compiling a gravity equation for the dynamic data panels of export and import flows and using the obtained results to forecast trade flows in the future. Intra-sectoral trade and cross-sectoral trade are analysed, determining the comparative trade advantages of Latvian products. With the input-output analysis the impact of hypothetical import substitution on the economy as a whole is modelled. The study concludes with the main conclusions, identified problems listed and proposals for the solutions of these problems. The volume of the thesis for acquiring Doctoral degree Doctor of Science (Ph.D.) in Social Sciences is 167 pages. There are 40 tables, 4 figures and 2 annexes in the paper, 202 sources of information are used, including 198 citations of sources in English.