RESEARCH ON GLOBAL GDP AND CPI UNDER POST EPIDEMIC (COVID-19) BASED ON DECOUPLING INDEX MODEL
Authors: Chen Ming-yung 
Published: July 2022

Background

In 2021, COVID-19 came back, but the global economy is still recovering, which will lead to long-term economic failure. This is because the differentiation of short-term economic trends will have a lasting impact on medium-term economic performance. In the past 2021, the world's major economies have rebounded to varying degrees. The spread of the novel coronavirus epidemic, the continuous rise in energy prices, the outbreak of the supply chain crisis and higher than expected inflation have also slowed down the pace of global economic recovery.

Research Objects and Methods

The delta virus is spreading rapidly, and the newly mutated omiclone virus is also spreading rapidly, which brings more uncertainty to the duration of the epidemic. All parties should take strong policy measures at the multilateral level to promote vaccination, address climate change, provide international liquidity and enhance the prospects of the global economy. In 2021, the five major GDP countries of the United States, China, Japan, Germany and the United Kingdom were repeatedly hit hard by the COVID-19 in 2019, and the global economic recovery was struggling. This paper studies the decoupling model between GDP and CPI of the top five countries in the global economy in 2021, and studies citizen anxiety under the construction of this model.

Results

Overall inflation in most economies is expected to peak in the last months of 2021 and return to pre epidemic levels by mid-2022. However, considering that the current recovery process is full of uncertainty, there is still great uncertainty about the inflation outlook, and for various reasons, inflation may exceed expectations. Clear policy communication and appropriate monetary and fiscal policies will help prevent inflation panic from leading to changes in inflation expectations. At the same time, the results showed that after controlling the demographic variables, the four variables could explain 10% of the variation of anxiety level (ar2-0.10, P &lt; 0.01). The explanatory effect of self-efficacy on anxiety level was statistically significant. The regression coefficient was -0.336 (P &lt; 0.01). The level of dignity has a significant inhibitory effect on the level of anxiety at the level of 0.01. Four variables can explain 22% of the change of depression level, f △ rr-0.22. P&lt;0.01). The regression coefficient was 0.347 (P &lt; 0.1). The level of optimism has a significant inhibitory and influence on the level of self depression, at the level of 0.01.

Conclusion

What is the prospect of economic recovery in the post epidemic era? In 2022, the most important factor in the global economic recovery is the evolution of coronavirus disease in 2019. Strong policy actions can usually curb inflation and inflation expectations, and the good and credible communication of the central bank also plays a very important role in anchoring inflation expectations. National authorities must be alert to triggers that could trigger a perfect storm of price risk. Therefore, inflation is a double-edged sword. We can't simply think of it as good or bad. On the contrary, we should adopt corresponding policies according to its position in the global value chain, the supply chain, hedge the impact of rising commodity prices, and price and control related products and key links, which will come from the further improvement of the global industrial chain and supply chain. Through the research, we found that citizens with higher levels of psychological capital have lower levels of anxiety and depression. Therefore, we can think that citizens with high internal psychological capital can alleviate the psychological pressure, anxiety and depression brought by psychological capital to a great extent through their own psychological quality. At the same time, we also found that relatively speaking, citizens with high individual psychological capital are less affected by family factors, work and life, traffic safety, their own health and future fear. Farmers with high level of psychological capital can better deal with the influence of family factors. They are full of hope for the future, optimistic about life and less worried about the impact of life.