bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Note—Revising Forecasts of Accounting Earnings: A Comparison with the Box-Jenkins Method
Authors: Brandon Charles H. , Jarrett Jeffrey E. , Khumawala Saleha B.
Published: November 2008

The purpose of this study was to contribute to the literature concerning forecasting the time series of accounting earnings. To accomplish this objective an experiment was conducted to compare the performance of Theil's Optimal Linear Correction technique for revising quarterly Box-Jenkins and other naive model forecasts of accounting earnings against the unrevised forecasts. Several results of this study are of particular interest. First, the study indicated that the Watts-Griffin parsimonious model outperformed other firm specific Box-Jenkins models. Second, the Optimal Linear Correction produced revised forecasts that were uniformly more accurate than the original unadjusted forecasts. Finally, the naive extrapolative time series models outperformed Box-Jenkins forecasts of accounting earnings.
Note—Learning Effects in Economic Lot Sizing
Authors: Muth Eginhard J. , Spremann Klaus
Published: November 2008

The classical square-root formula for optimal lot size is a useful tool especially for those manufacturing processes in which labor intensive items are produced in small quantities. There is a class of stationary lot sizing problems to which this formula applies. With learning effects introduced into the production cost of this class of problems the optimal lot size becomes the solution of a transcendental equation. Numerical solutions are presented as well as an approximation which has the structure of the classical formula.
Formulation and Solution of Nonlinear Integer Production Planning Problems for Flexible Manufacturing Systems
Authors: Stecke Kathryn E.
Published: November 2008

A flexible manufacturing system (FMS) is an integrated, computer-controlled complex of automated material handling devices and numerically controlled machine tools that can simultaneously process medium-sized volumes of a variety of part types. FMSs are becoming an attractive substitute for the conventional means of batch manufacturing, especially in the metal-cutting industry. This new production technology has been designed to attain the efficiency of well-balanced, machine-paced transfer lines, while utilizing the flexibility that job shops have to simultaneously machine multiple part types. Some properties and constraints of these systems are similar to those of flow and job shops, while others are different. This technology creates the need to develop new and appropriate planning and control procedures that take advantage of the system's capabilities for higher production rates.

This paper defines a set of five production planning problems that must be solved for efficient use of an FMS, and addresses specifically the grouping and loading problems. These two problems are first formulated in detail as nonlinear 0-1 mixed integer programs. In an effort to develop solution methodologies for these two planning problems, several linearization methods are examined and applied to data from an existing FMS. To decrease computational time, the constraint size of the linearized integer problems is reduced according to various methods. Several real world problems are solved in very reasonable time using the linearization that results in the fewest additional constraints and/or variables. The problem characteristics that determine which linearization to use, and the application of the linearized models in the solution of actual planning problems, are also discussed.
Erratum to “Decision-Making at the Top”
Authors: Borsting Jack R.
Published: November 2008

Erratum to “Decision-Making at the Top” by Jack R. Borsting, Management Sci. 28 (4, April) (1982) 341–351.
Effective Scoring Rules for Probabilistic Forecasts
Authors: Friedman Daniel
Published: November 2008

This paper studies the use of a scoring rule for the elicitation of forecasts in the form of probability distributions and for the subsequent evaluation of such forecasts. Given a metric (distance function) on a space of probability distributions, a scoring rule is said to be effective if the forecaster's expected score is a strictly decreasing function of the distance between the elicited and “true” distributions. Two simple, well-known rules (the spherical and the quadratic) are shown to be effective with respect to suitable metrics. Examples and a practical application (in Foreign Exchange rate forecasting) are also provided.
State of the Art—Location on Networks: A Survey. Part II: Exploiting Tree Network Structure
Authors: Tansel Barbaros C. , Francis Richard L. , Lowe Timothy J.
Published: November 2008

The discussion of the fundamental p-center and p-median problems in Part I of this paper provides the basis for the work surveyed in Part II. Part II deals with the minimax and minisum location problems with mutual communication, location problems involving multiple objectives, the distance constraints problem and problems involving the location of paths. In addition, convexity issues in network location problems are discussed. Virtually all of this work exploits network structure. Specifically it is based on the assumption that the network is a tree. The conclusion section gives a brief discussion of the state of the art and of current trends in network location research.
Stocking Repair Kits for Systems with Limited Life
Authors: Bryant John L. , Murphy Richard A.
Published: November 2008

In this paper we examine several models for systems subject to both repairable and nonrepairable failures. A repairable failure can be remedied by the application of a repair kit (spare part, standby system, etc.), whereas a nonrepairable failure terminates the life of the system. The stochastic properties of key system parameters are derived under appropriate assumptions. These results are then used to determine the optimal number of repair kits to stock in order to maintain a system having a specified cost structure. The applicability of such models to problems of systems design is illustrated in several examples. Our results make use of distributions of phase type, and demonstrate that this family of distributions provides considerable flexibility and computational tractability in reliability modeling.
Comparing for Different Time Series Methods the Value of Technical Expertise Individualized Analysis, and Judgmental Adjustment
Authors: Carbone Robert , Andersen Allan , Corriveau Yvan , Corson Paul Piat
Published: November 2008

Technical expertise, human judgment, and the time spent by an analyst are often believed to be key factors in determining the accuracy of forecasts obtained with the use of a time series forecasting method. A control experiment was designed to empirically test these beliefs. It involved the participation of experts and persons with limited training. Forecasts were generated for 25 time series with the use of the Box-Jenkins, Holt-Winters and Carbone-Longini filtering methods. Results of the nonparametric tests used to compare the forecasts confirmed that technical expertise, judgmental adjustment, and individualized analyses were of little value in improving forecast accuracy as compared to black box approaches. In addition, simpler methods were found to provide significantly more accurate forecasts than the Box-Jenkins method when applied by persons with limited training.
Market Value Maximization and Markov Dynamic Programming
Authors: Grinold Richard C.
Published: November 2008

This paper shows how an operational method for solving dynamic programs can be used, in some cases, to solve the problem of maximizing a firm's market value. The problem is formulated as a Markov decision problem that can be solved via linear programming. The paper shows how to calculate (or estimate) the state-contingent prices that are used to value the firm. In addition, the paper points out how states can be aggregated to make the solution technique more practical. The paper's final section contains a specific example.
Erratum To “The Capital Asset Pricing Model: An Evaluation of Its Potential as a Strategic Planning Tool” By Thomas H. Naylor and Francis Tapon
Authors: Brownlee Bruce James
Published: November 2008

Erratum To “The Capital Asset Pricing Model: An Evaluation of Its Potential as a Strategic Planning Tool” By Thomas H. Naylor and Francis Tapon, Management Sci. 28 (10, October) (1982) 1166–1173.
Erratum To “Economic Design of Fraction Defective Control Charts” By Montgomery, Heikes and Mance
Authors: Peters Michael H.
Published: November 2008

Erratum To “Economic Design of Fraction Defective Control Charts” By Montgomery, Heikes and Mance, Management Sci. 21 (11, July) (1975).
Erratum To “Economic Design of Fraction Defective Control Charts” By Montgomery, Heikes and Mance
Authors: Montgomery Douglas C. , Heikes Russell G.
Published: November 2008

Erratum To “Economic Design of Fraction Defective Control Charts” By Montgomery, Heikes and Mance, Management Sci. 21 (11, July) (1975).
Response to “Decision Problems Under Risk and Chance Constrained Programming: Dilemmas in the Transition”
Authors: Charnes A. , Cooper W. W.
Published: November 2008

Once again we show that the analysis of a very simple artificial example contrived by its authors for a general indictment of all chance constrained programming is itself in error. Proofs and further references are supplied below along with a discussion of other deficiencies and ambiguities in an article authored by A. J. Hogan, J. G. Morris and H. E. Thompson in Management Science, Vol. 27, No. 6 (June 1981).
The Correlates of Entrepreneurship in Three Types of Firms
Authors: Miller Danny
Published: November 2008

The objective of the research was to discover the chief determinants of entrepreneurship, the process by which organizations renew themselves and their markets by pioneering, innovation, and risk taking. Some authors have argued that personality factors of the leader are what determine entrepreneurship, others have highlighted the role played by the structure of the organization, while a final group have pointed to the importance of strategy making. We believed that the manner and extent to which entrepreneurship would be influenced by all of these factors would in large measure depend upon the nature of the organization. Based upon the work of a number of authors we derived a crude typology of firms: Simple firms are small and their power is centralized at the top. Planning firms are bigger, their goal being smooth and efficient operation through the use of formal controls and plans. Organic firms strive to be adaptive to their environments, emphasizing expertise-based power and open communications. The predictiveness of the typology was established upon a sample of 52 firms using hypothesis-testing and analysis of variance techniques. We conjectured that in Simple firms entrepreneurship would be determined by the characteristics of the leader; in Planning firms it would be facilitated by explicit and well integrated product-market strategies, and in Organic firms it would be a function of environment and structure. These hypotheses were largely borne out by correlational and multiple regression analyses. Any programs which aim to stimulate entrepreneurship would benefit greatly from tailoring recommendations to the nature of the target firms.
Bivariate Negotiations as a Problem of Stochastic Terminal Control
Authors: Fogelman-Soulie Francoise , Munier Bertrand , Shakun Melvin F.
Published: November 2008

A mathematical model is developed for two players negotiating on two negotiation (operational goal) dimensions. Bivanate utilities are not assumed. Rather at any stage the payoff is expressed as a payoff probability distribution stating the probability of a player obtaining various amounts of each of the two variables. The preferred (optimum) payoff distribution is not fixed but changes in the course of negotiations. The model treats concession making as a problem of stochastic terminal control which can be formulated and solved by dynamic programming to yield normative recommendations as to concession making (control). The model is illustrated by numerical example. The present research generalizes work by Rao and Shakun (Rao, A. G., M. F. Shaxun. 1974. A normative model for negotiations. Management Sci. 20 (10, June).) on a single negotiation variable. It models mathematically in the two-player, two-dimensional case negotiation aspects of a general approach to conflict resolution and design of purposeful systems discussed by Shakun (Shakun, M. F. 1981. Formalizing conflict resolution in policy making. Internal. J. Gen. Systems 7 (3); Shakun, M. F. 1981. Policy making and meaning as design of purposeful systems. Internal J. Gen. Systems 7 (4).).
Supply, Storage, and Service Reliability Decisions by Gas Distribution Utilities: A Chance-Constrained Approach: Comments on Guldmann's Paper
Authors: Rasmussen Jill J.
Published: November 2008

A question has been raised as to the value of Guldmann's paper because the model application indicates very small increments of benefits over costs for the “optimal” decision across a wide range of “nonoptimal” ones. That is, no matter what decision is made about storage capacity or reliability level, savings are on the order of 1 percent of costs. In addition, similar increments of benefit occur irrespective of conversion capacity or reliability level.
Simple Approaches to Shift, Days-Off and Tour Scheduling Problems
Authors: Morris James G. , Showalter Michael J.
Published: November 2008

Shift and days-off scheduling problems have received much attention in the literature of integer programming approaches to workforce scheduling. A typical managerial use would be to schedule full-time employees to minimize the number of labor hours while satisfying variable workforce requirements of a service delivery system. We present computational experience to show that an easily implemented application of linear programming frequently produces optimal solutions to these problems.

When the context progresses toward a continuous operating environment (service delivery over 24 hours a day, 7 days a week) we stress the need to shed the myopic views of the shift and days-off scheduling formulations in favor of an integrative tour scheduling formulation. For this problem we observe that a simple heuristic initiated by rounding down the associated LP solution consistently produces near optimal solutions. This observation is based on experiments over varying workforce requirement patterns.
An Evaluation of Federal Policy Instruments to Stimulate Basic Research in Industry
Authors: Joglekar Prafulla , Hamburg Morris
Published: November 2008

A model of the resource allocation behavior of a group of firms demonstrates that unaided industry allocation to basic (inappropriable) research is suboptimal. Furthermore, provision of seed money is generally counterproductive, while the provision of a matching subsidy is not very cost-efficient in increasing the allocation. Innovative policy alternatives are proposed.
Formalism, Realism and Management Science
Authors: Minas J. Sayer
Published: November 2008

In most, if not all, of the standard examples of management science and Operations Research projects, it appears that somewhere along the line some part of the research effort has been devoted to a conceptualization or formalization of the system or process being studied. This conceptualization is very often called a model and may consist of a set of statements or may in fact be a physical representation of the system. It will be supposed that the term model is familiar enough to be used in a reasonably unambiguous way. The purpose of this paper is to define and discuss a problem related to models. It is felt that this is a serious problem, a problem which is becoming increasingly critical for the development of a unified science of management.
Variety in Retailing
Authors: Baumol William J. , Ide Edward A.
Published: November 2008

Many marketing problems which promise to be amenable to the techniques of operations research have apparently not been subjected to systematic analysis. This article is a first attempt at an analysis of one such area—the number of items stocked by a retailer and its relation to his sales, his costs, and his profits.
Shorthand for Defense Planning
Authors: Hosmer Clark L.
Published: November 2008

This is to describe a proposal for comparing assumptions about the risks of war with our capabilities to handle those risks. The proposed method offers a concise, shorthand way to bring into focus the key parts of the defense planning picture. It is not a short cut to answers but it is a shorter, clearer way to present what the answers are at any one time.
Programming Resource Use and Capital Investment in Agriculture
Authors: King R. A. , Bishop C. E. , Sutherland J. G.
Published: November 2008

This paper describes how linear programming procedures have been used at North Carolina State College to determine optimal combinations of products for farm firms and to specify the quantities of capital that farmers would find it profitable to invest. It shows how the introduction of risk considerations may alter drastically programs which are obtained for certain situations. The usefulness of the technique in evaluating soil conservation practices, farm leasing arrangements and related problems is pointed out.
A Linear Programming Solution to Dynamic Leontief type Models
Authors: Wagner Harvey M.
Published: November 2008

Much research has been undertaken in the past several years on the uses of Leontief input-output matrices; applications have been made ranging from industrial growth models to models of interregional dynamics to estimates of structural changes in the economy. This paper discusses a general linear programming formulation of Leontief type relationships. Since we may construct models for a single firm analogous to Leontief macro-economic systems, our results are applicable to a wide variety of situations.
The Elimination form of the Inverse and its Application to Linear Programming
Authors: Markowitz Harry M.
Published: November 2008

It is common for matrices in industrial applications of linear programming to have a large proportion of zero coefficients. While every item (raw material, intermediate material, end item, equipment item) in, say, a petroleum refinery may be indirectly related to every other, any particular process uses few of these. Thus the matrix describing petroleum technology has a small percentage of non-zeros. If spacial or temporal distinctions are introduced into the model the percentage of non-zeros generally falls further.

The present paper discusses a form of inverse which is especially convenient to obtain and use for matrices with a high percentage of zeros. The application of this form of inverse in linear programming is also discussed.
The Use of Psychology in Industry: A Trade Union Point of View
Authors: Gomberg William
Published: November 2008

Our principal object is to examine the industrial arena in which the psychologist is active. A short excursion is taken into the fields of aptitude testing and the psychological evaluation of industrial engineering techniques. However, the major portion of our treatment is reserved for the human relations area.
On The Computational Solution of Linear Programming Problems Involving Almost-Block-Diagonal Matrices
Authors: Bellman Richard
Published: November 2008

In this paper we wish to attack a problem which arises from the study of weakly coupled economic systems, or alternatively from the study of multi-stage processes with almost-independent stages. Here the “weakness” of coupling and the “almost-independence” is measured by the number of state variables at one stage which depend on the variables of the preceding stage. By means of the functional equation technique of dynamic programming, we shall show that the computational solution can be reduced to that of the computation of a sequence of functions of one variable, in the particular problem we treat.
The Groves Scheme, Profit Sharing and Moral Hazard
Authors: Cohen Susan I. , Loeb Martin
Published: November 2008

Considered in this paper is the problem of intrafirm resource allocation. Two incentive schemes, the Groves scheme and profit sharing, have been presented in the literature as ways of dealing with this problem under conditions of asymmetric information. In the absence of effort aversion by division managers, it has been shown that truth-telling forms a dominant strategy equilibrium using the Groves scheme and a Nash equilibrium using profit sharing.

The analysis in this paper allows for the problem of moral hazard (effort aversion) as well as the problem of asymmetric information. It is shown that for a deterministic case in which the headquarters seeks to maximize a measure of total profits gross of divisional rewards, a reinterpreted Groves scheme will yield a dominant equilibrium. At this equilibrium, the headquarters implicitly considers the division managers' effort levels as a cost to the firm. It is also shown that in the presence of moral hazard, profit sharing will not generally yield a Nash equilibrium. Furthermore, profit sharing may encourage the transmission of misinformation by a division manager so as to change the division's capital allocation and reduce the effort level subsequently selected by the manager.
Large-Scale Portfolio Optimization
Authors: Perold Andre F.
Published: November 2008

This paper describes a practical algorithm for large-scale mean-variance portfolio optimization. The emphasis is on developing an efficient computational approach applicable to the broad range of portfolio models employed by the investment community. What distinguishes these from the “usual” quadratic program is (i) the form of the covariance matrix arising from the use of factor and scenario models of return, and (ii) the inclusion of transactions limits and costs. A third aspect is the question of whether the problem should be solved parametrically in the risk-reward trade off parameter, λ, or separately for several discrete values of λ. We show how the parametric algorithm can be made extremely efficient by “sparsifying” the covariance matrix with the introduction of a few additional variables and constraints, and by treating the transaction cost schedule as an essentially nonlinear nondifferentiable function. Then we show how these two seemingly unrelated approaches can be combined to yield good approximate solutions when minimum trading size restrictions (“buy or sell at least a certain amount, or not at all”) are added. In combination, these approaches make possible the parametric solution of problems on a scale not heretofore possible on computers where CPU time and storage are the constraining factors.
A Partial Covering Approach to Siting Response Resources for Major Maritime Oil Spills
Authors: Belardo S. , Harrald J. , Wallace W. A. , Ward J.
Published: November 2008

In this paper, oil spills occurring near shore in semienclosed waterways are viewed as emergency events. A partial set covering model, similar to those developed for firehouse location analysis, is applied to the problem of locating oil spill response equipment. The model includes both assessments of the relative probability of occurrence and the impact after occurrence of various spill types. A multiple objective approach enables the decisionmaker to evaluate strategies without confounding the probability of occurrence with the impact of occurrence.

The paper discusses how the model can be used to support the decisions of emergency response planners who must subjectively solve the problem of attaining the best overall protection with existing resources while minimizing the risk of being unprepared for politically and environmentally sensitive events. The model discussed in the paper, although employed in a resource constrained mode, can also be used in a budget-constrained mode.

The model is applied to the problem of locating oil spill response equipment on Long Island Sound, and implications for public policy are discussed in this context.
A Queueing System with Auxiliary Servers
Authors: Green Linda
Published: November 2008

We examine a queueing system with multiple primary servers and a fewer number of auxiliary servers. There are two classes of customers—those who require service from a primary server working alone and those who require service from a primary server who is assisted by an auxiliary server. Though the apparent Markovian state space is five-dimensional, we show that an aggregation results in an exact two-dimensional representation which is Markovian. Matrix geometric theory is used to obtain approximations for the mean delay and blocking probability of each customer type.
Stochastic Dominance Decision Rules when the Attributes are Utility Independent
Authors: Mosler K. C.
Published: November 2008

In multivariate decisions under risk, assessing the complete utility function can be a major obstacle. Decision rules are investigated which characterize uniformly better alternatives with respect to a whole class of utility functions. In this paper independence assumptions are imposed on the preference structure while the levels of attributes may be stochastically dependent in an arbitrary way.

The utilities considered are additive, multiplicative, or multilinear. Necessary and sufficient conditions are developed for uniform decisions over utilities with common substitutional structure and where the univariate conditional utilities show qualitative properties such as risk aversion. The rules are direct extensions of known univariate rules and easy to evaluate.
Sausage Blending Using Multiple Objective Linear Programming
Authors: Steuer Ralph E.
Published: November 2008

Single objective cost minimization linear programming models are used as computerized decision-aids in sausage manufacturing (hot dogs, bologna, salami, etc.). However, sausage blending is clearly a problem with multiple conflicting criteria (cost, color, fat, protein, moisture, etc.) Presented in this paper is a vector-maximum/filtering MOLP (multiple objective linear programming) methodology for use as an improved decision-making approach with single formula sausage blending problems.
Communication
Authors: Bouakiz Mokrane
Published: November 2008

A comment on the note “ Optimal Ordering Quantity to Realize a Predetermined Level on Profit” by E. Sankarasubramanian and S. Kumaraswamy (in the April 1983 issue).
Erratum to “Conditions on Risk Attitude for a Single Attribute”
Authors: Harvey Charles M.
Published: November 2008

Erratum to author's paper “Conditions on Risk Attitude for a Single Attribute,” Management Sci. 27 (2, February) (1981).
Successful Information System Development in Relation to Situational Factors Which Affect Effective Communication Between MIS-Users and EDP-Specialists
Authors: De Brabander B. , Thiers G.
Published: November 2008

The paper describes the results of an experimental test of a theoretical model which explains under what circumstances the interaction between MIS-users and EDP-specialists during the design of an information system will lead to success (i.e., efficient task-accomplishment). The research also includes an experiment about the influence of a third party playing different kinds of mediating roles. The results confirm the theoretical model. They are also corroborated by the findings in two case studies in a car-manufacturing firm, briefly discussed at the end of the paper.

It appears that the users of the information system who have to deal with EDP-specialists having sanctionary power over them (a case of power asymmetry) are less inclined to implement the system exactly as the user and the specialist had agreed upon, than users not so dependent upon the EDP-specialist (i.e., no power asymmetry). This effect seems to be more pronounced when there exists a semantic gap between the user and the specialist (i.e., when they use different concepts for the task). Moreover, such defective implementation behavior (i.e., not adhere to the plan) seems to entail less efficient task-accomplishment.

As predicted by the model, the presence of a third party which stimulates the user to neglect the possible implications of power asymmetry so that effective communication among the parties is reestablished nullifies the disturbing effect of power asymmetry and semantic gap mentioned above. Some organizational design implications of the findings are discussed.
Reducing Control Loss in Organizations: The Implications of Dual Hierarchies, Mentoring and Strengthening Vertical Dyadic Linkages
Authors: Evans Martin G.
Published: November 2008

Using Williamson's (1971) control loss model, the relative merits of dual hierarchies (P. B. Evans [Evans, P. B. 1975. Multiple hierarchies and organizational control. Admin. Sci. Quart. 20 250–259.), strong vertical dyadic linkages, and mentoring for reducing overall control loss are explored. The potential impact for each organizational structure or process is assessed.

Simulations are performed to examine the impact of each of these organizational arrangements for organizations with hierarchical levels ranging from 3 to 11 levels. In addition, the effects of deteriorating control at each level are investigated.

In the discussion of appropriate control strategies, a number of other organizational characteristics are discussed. I conclude that: Under conditions of sequential or reciprocal interdependence, building uniformly high control efficiency throughout the organization is essential. In small organizations (and those with high turnover) dual hierarchies and cadre relations are appropriate mechanisms for reducing control loss. In large organizations (and those with low turnover) mentoring and cadres are appropriate.
On the Reswitching and Convergence Properties of Research & Development Rivalry
Authors: Lee Tom K.
Published: November 2008

Under an alternate assumption of the payoff function, we analyze Lee's dynamic game model of R&D rivalry. Both similarities and differences in the equilibrium results of the model are obtained. It is shown that both the reswitching property and the convergence property of R&D rivalry are robust under the alternate assumption. The reswitching property of R&D rivalry states that after gaining a technological edge against a rival, a decision maker stops doing R&D and he will resume doing R&D when his rival succeeds in narrowing the technological gap between the two rivals. The convergence property of R&D rivalry states that when the technology levels of two rivals differ by a wide margin, the one with a lower technology level will be the only one doing R&D to narrow the technological gap between the two rivals. This formalizes the perception of R&D managers that the R&D decision of one firm should depend on the R&D decision of its rivals for competitive reasons. Moreover, when multiple Nash equilibria exist, a different pair of equilibria is obtained under the alternate assumption. Insights to an antitrust puzzle relevant to managers are provided. Finally, this paper provides an explanation of why the market shares of firms in an industry may differ. At stationary states of technologies, asymmetric technologies (market shares) are expected.
Computationally Efficient Optimal Solutions to the Lot-Sizing Problem in Multistage Assembly Systems
Authors: Afentakis Panayotis , Gavish Bezalel , Karmarkar Uday
Published: November 2008

The scheduling of lot sizes in multistage production environments is a fundamental problem in many Material Requirements Planning Systems. Many heuristics have been suggested for this problem with varying degrees of success. Research to date on obtaining optimal solutions has been limited to small problems. This paper presents a new formulation of the lot-sizing problem in multistage assembly systems which leads to an effective optimization algorithm for the problem. The problem is reformulated in terms of “echelon stock” which simplifies its decomposition by a Lagrangean relaxation method. A Branch and Bound algorithm which uses the bounds obtained by the relaxation was developed and tested. Computational results are reported on 120 randomly generated problems involving up to 50 items in 15 stages and up to 18 time periods in the planning horizon.
A Lot-Sizing Algorithm for Reducing Nervousness in MRP Systems
Authors: Kropp Dean H. , Carlson Robert C.
Published: November 2008

Previous work dealt with the problems of nervousness in Material Requirements Planning (MRP) Systems when production schedules were modified to include setups which previously had not been scheduled. In this work we further examine nervousness and its cost. By modifying the setup costs used in the Wagner-Whitin algorithm, we develop a generalized solution methodology for dealing with situations in which new setups are added to the production schedule and existing setups are cancelled.
Assessing Scenario Probabilities Via Interactive Goal Programming
Authors: De Kluyver Cornelis A. , Moskowitz Herbert
Published: November 2008

An interactive goal programming approach for assessing scenario probabilities used in long-range forecasting and decision analysis is developed and illustrated using a small numerical example. The method only requires marginal event probability and ordinal or interval first-order conditional probability assessments of a limited number of events constituting the scenarios and guarantees the consistency of the assessments in terms of the laws of probability calculus.
A Diffusion Approximation for an M/G/m Queue with Group Arrivals
Authors: Kimura Toshikazu , Ohsone Tadashi
Published: November 2008

This paper deals with the M/G/m queueing system with group arrivals. Using a diffusion approximation, we present approximate formulae for the steady-state distribution of the number of customers in the system. From this distribution, approximate formulae for some queueing characteristics such as the delay probability and the mean queue length are derived. In order to check the accuracy of the approximate formulae, they are numerically tested on some special cases.
Note—Removing a Self-Imposed Restriction in Modelling Hierarchical Decision Processes
Authors: Ruefli Timothy W. , Storbeck James
Published: November 2008

Models of decision-making in multi-level, hierarchical systems in the literature have been restricted to structures where the system is strictly pyramidal in nature. We will show that this restriction has been self-imposed and that existing models can be modified to represent a wide range of nonpyramidal structures.
Risk Attitude and Time Preference in Health
Authors: Gafni Amiram , Torrance George W.
Published: November 2008

Risk attitude and time preference are well-known and distinct concepts in the study of individuals' preferences for goods such as money. This paper reviews and explores the application of these concepts to the field of health. A mathematical model is presented, both in a general form and in an exponential form, which relates an individual's risk attitude in health to three effects—a quantity effect, a gambling effect and a time preference effect. It is shown that the overall risk attitude, as measured by its direction and magnitude, is merely the sum of the individual effects, as measured by their directions and magnitudes. Measurement methods are presented which can be used in a given situation to determine which effects are operating, in what directions and with what magnitudes. A new measurement procedure based on the temporary palliation of a chronic condition is described as a method of obtaining an individual's time preference pattern for health.
Managing the Risks of the Automobile: A Study of a Swedish Car Manufacturer
Authors: Svenson Ola
Published: November 2008

Hazard management of the risks of human injury and death related to the automobile are described and exemplified by the Swedish car manufacturer Volvo. The study presents the Volvo units engaged in accident hazard management and their roles in the elaborate system of feedbacks (information, penalties and rewards) created by the company and society for maintaining a high level of automobile safety. Improvements are suggested although the overall quality of the accident hazard management process is considered quite good. Although the study is focused on the automobile industry, it should be regarded as part of a much-needed wider perspective on hazard management applying to other technologies and industries as well. In general, the following factors are considered important to high quality accident hazard management by companies and society: (1) Public concern about safety issues, (2) technological capacity and organizational tradition of safety engineering in the manufacturing company, (3) routines for announcing future proposed safety standards, e.g., US Federal Register, (4) laws enforcing a recall system, (5) annual vehicle inspections and (6) effective product liability laws.
Risk Assessment in a Chemical Storage Facility
Authors: Boykin Raymond F. , Freeman Raymond A. , Levary Reuven R.
Published: November 2008

A risk assessment was performed to assist in the evaluation of equipment improvements for a chemical storage facility. The risk assessment was accomplished through the use of several different methodologies e.g., fault tree analysis, event trees, and risk perspective techniques. The result of the study was a new alternative for a chemical storage facility. This new alternative eliminated the requirement for a large storage facility and reduced the capital project cost by over 10 million dollars.
Analysis of Alternative National Ambient Carbon Monoxide Standards
Authors: Keeney Ralph L. , Sarin Rakesh K. , Winkler Robert L.
Published: November 2008

A risk assessment model is developed to relate adverse health effects to alternative carbon monoxide standards. The analysis requires information in the form of available data and expert judgments concerning factors such as ambient CO level, human exposure to CO, physiological responses, and dose-response relationships. Quantitative estimates, including probabilities, are obtained for selected summary measures of adverse health effects.
The Effects of Communication on Technological Innovation
Authors: Ebadi Yar M. , Utterback James M.
Published: November 2008

This study examined the relationship between communication and technological innovation. It focused on the patterns of technical communication among researchers and organizations to find out if these patterns had any effect on the success of technological innovation. The objectives were to: (1) investigate the effects of communication on technological innovation at an individual level, and (2) study the effects of interorganizational communication on technological innovation.

Data were gathered from the principal investigators of 117 Sea Grant research projects, which were randomly selected from a sampling frame of 495 projects. Bivariate correlation, and partial correlation, were employed in analyzing the data. The findings indicate that at the individual level, the frequency, centrality, and diversity of communication all have positive effects on the success of technological innovation. However, the frequency of communication was found to have a greater effect than either centrality or diversity of communication on technological innovation. It was also found that high formality of communication had a negative effect on technological innovation. On the aggregate level, network cohesiveness, centrality, and diversity of communications all were positively related to technological innovation. Several managerial implications may be suggested. These implications include management attempts to facilitate and promote exchange of information among researchers and among organizations, joint research projects and other interactive activities.
Note—On the Single Machine Scheduling Problem with Quadratic Penalty Function of Completion Times: An Improved Branching Procedure
Authors: Gupta Sushil K. , Sen Tapan
Published: November 2008

This paper gives optimality conditions to obtain a priori precedence relationships among some of the jobs in a single machine scheduling problem so as to curtail the enumeration while using branch-and-bound technique. The objective is to minimize a quadratic (or generalized quadratic) penalty function of job completion times.
Note—A Note on Spacecraft for Multi-Floor Layout Planning
Authors: Jacobs F. Robert
Published: November 2008

This note provides a brief comparison between a three-dimensional layout planning system recently described in Management Science (Johnson [Johnson, Roger V. 1982. SPACECRAFT for multi-floor layout planning. Management Sci. 28 (4, April) 407–417.]) and a similar system developed earlier (Cinar [Cinar, Unver. 1975. Facilities planning: a systems analysis and space allocation approach. Charles M. Eastman, ed. Spatial Synthesis in Computer-Aided Building Design. Wiley, New York, 19–40.]).
A Multiple Dispatch Queueing Model of Police Patrol Operations
Authors: Green Linda
Published: November 2008

One of the primary concerns of urban police departments is the effective use of patrol cars. In large cities, police assigned to patrol cars typically account for more than 50% of total police manpower and their allocation has become particularly crucial in light of recent fiscal cutbacks.

The police patrol system is a complex multi-server queueing system, and recently many urban police departments have been using queueing models to estimate delays in responding to calls for police assistance. The magnitude of these delays is usually one basis for measuring system efficiency as well as for determining allocations of patrol cars among precincts. A major limitation of these models is that they assume that only a single unit is dispatched to each call. In general, this is not the case, particularly in police departments with one-officer patrol cars.

This paper describes a model that has been developed to represent patrol car operations more accurately. It is a multi-priority queueing model that explicitly reflects multiple car dispatches. Its purpose is not only to provide a better basis for the efficient allocation of patrol cars, but to enable police officials to gauge the effects of policies, such as one-officer patrol cars, which affect the number of cars dispatched to various types of incidents.
Measuring Productive Efficiency: An Application to Illinois Strip Mines
Authors: Byrnes P. , Färe R. , Grosskopf S.
Published: November 2008

The purpose of this paper is to apply a generalized version of the Farrell measure of technical efficiency to a sample of Illinois strip mines. We disaggregate the original Farrell measure (which was designed to measure lost output or wasted inputs due to underutilization of inputs) into three mutually exclusive and exhaustive components: (1) a measure of purely technical efficiency, (2) a measure of input congestion (overutilization of some input(s)) and (3) a measure of scale efficiency. This approach has the advantage that it provides additional information on the sources of inefficiency of production, which should be useful to managers, in general, not only in strip mining. Simple linear programming techniques are derived and used in calculating these efficiency measures for our sample. We find that Illinois strip mines are fairly efficient (relative to each other). The major source of inefficiency was due to deviations from the optimal scale of production. We also find suggestive evidence that inefficient mines tend to have relatively high stripping ratios, high labor-output ratios, single rather than multiple coal seams, and lower earth-moving capacity.
The Value of Market Share and the Product Life Cycle—A Game-Theoretic Model
Authors: Karnani Aneel
Published: November 2008

The paper presents a dynamic, game-theoretic model of marketing competition in an oligopoly. The equilibrium solution to this model is used to investigate how a firm’s optimal marketing expenditure per unit sold, which can be interpreted as a measure of the value of market share, depends on current and future market demand, which in turn can be related to the product life cycle. The results support and refine the conventional wisdom that the earlier it is the life cycle, the greater is the value of the market share.
Production Planning in Assembly Line Systems
Authors: Chandrasekaran R. , Aneja Y. P. , Nair K. P. K.
Published: November 2008

We develop a production planning model in the context of a system of assembly lines or production lines. The model is a large-scale linear program and we provide a polynomial column generation technique for its efficient solution. The column generation technique and the approach therein are also of interest in certain other problems. A numerical example to illustrate the algorithm is included. Finally computational experience with the algorithm is summarized.
A Mixture of Dynamic Programming and Branch-and-Bound for the Subset-Sum Problem
Authors: Martello Silvano , Toth Paolo
Published: November 2008

Given n items, each having a weight wi, and a container of capacity W, the Subset-Sum Problem (SSP) is to select a subset of the items whose total weight is closest to, without exceeding, W.

The paper presents a mixed approach (depth first search-dynamic programming) to the exact solution of the problem. An extensive computational experience is presented, comparing the proposed algorithm with that of Ahrens-Finke, as well as with the Balas-Zemel algorithm for large problems. Both “easy” and “hard” problems with values of n up to 10,000 are considered.
Reply—On “Comment on Aggregate Safety Stock Levels and Component Part Commonality”
Authors: Collier David A.
Published: November 2008

Reply—On “Comment on Aggregate Safety Stock Levels and Component Part Commonality” (McClain, J. O., W. L. Maxwell, J. A. Muckstadt, L. J. Thomas, E. N. Weiss. 1984. Note—Comment on “Aggregate safety stock levels and component part commonality”. Management Sci. 30 (6) 772–773.).
Setting Standards: A Systematic Approach to Managing Public Health and Safety Risks
Authors: Fischhoff Baruch
Published: November 2008

Standards are an effective means for managing hazardous technologies only if three conditions are satisfied: (a) setting general standards is preferable to case-by-case decision making; (b) some general safety philosophy, balancing risk and other factors, can be justified on normative grounds; (c) that philosophy is faithfully translated into operational terms. In practice, standards are rarely developed and enforced in an integrated systematic way. As a result, they often miss their mark. This guide presents a general framework for the design, development, and implementation of safety standards. That framework is derived from the logical character of the standard setters' task and from experience with actual standards. It first identifies the conditions under which standards are an appropriate management tool. Second, it presents four generic methods that may be used to develop safety policy. Third, it characterizes the design issues that arise in making that policy operational. At each step, it suggests particular strategies along with their inherent strengths and weaknesses. In particular, it shows the sensitivity of a standard's effectiveness to seemingly technical aspects of the way it is drafted.
Scheduling School Buses
Authors: Swersey Arthur J. , Ballard Wilson
Published: November 2008

In the scheduling situation considered here, we are given a set of routes, each associated with a particular school. A single bus is assigned to each route, picking up the students and arriving at their school within a specified time window. The scheduling problem is to find the fewest buses needed to cover all the routes while meeting the time window specifications. We present two integer programming formulations of the scheduling problem and apply them to actual data from New Haven, Connecticut for two different years, as well as to 30 randomly generated problems. Linear programming relaxations of these integer programs were found to produce integer solutions more than 75 percent of the time. In the remaining cases, we found that the few fractional values can be adjusted to integer values without increasing the number of buses needed. Our method reduces the number of buses needed by about 25 percent compared to the manual solutions developed by the New Haven school bus scheduler.