bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Is Gambling Contagious? An Analysis of Electronic Gambling Machine Clustering in Germany
Authors: Jasny Johannes
Published: August 2020

There are sizeable differences in the Electronic Gambling Machine (EGM) supply among German regions. Furthermore, the EGM supply concentrates in certain regions which results in gambling hot spots. Interestingly the spatial clustering of EGM supply is still observed when we control for agglomeration effects caused by population. This leads to the question why the EGM supply concentrates in some regions and remains low in others. We argue that the concentration of supply can be mostly explained by the socioeconomic characteristics of these regions. This paper makes three central contributions to the location based gambling research. First, it visualizes the absolute and relative supply of EGMs in German communities and highlights the spatial clustering of high and low EGM density regions. Second, it implements socioeconomic and geographical control variables for a more distinct description of regional differences. Third, it employs spatial econometric modelling to quantify and explain the occurrence of EGM hot spots. For our analysis we use census and EGM market data. The main finding implies, that there is a clear clustering of the EGM supply across regions at first, but when considering the socioeconomic characteristics / deprivation of the regions, most of the clustering effect is erased. The model explains most of the clustering effect which appears to exist only when there is no slender consideration of the socioeconomic differences across regions. This result supports the hypothesis that high gambling activity in one region does not affect the gambling activity in neighboring regions.
Welfare Effects of Gambling on Nigerian Youths: A Case Study of Lagos State
Authors: Mustapha Saidi Atanda , Enilolobo Sunday Oluwafemi
Published: August 2020

With the increasing rate of youth unemployment in the country, Nigeria’s youths have invested their commitments (time, money and intrinsic efforts) to several gambling avenues such as Baba Ijebu, Naira Bet, Westen Lotto Bet, etc. to source for finance to meet up their daily expenses and reduce the crime rate that would have engaged in as a result of high rate of unemployment. The aggregate unemployment rate is 70%, while youth unemployment accounts for about 58%. With the huge rate of youth unemployment in the country, the study intends to examine the participation level of youths in gambling in Lagos State. It further inspects the effects of youth gambling on household welfare and spending. Methods used by the paper include: a two-stage survey design, a qualitative component that comprises of the targeted focus group discussions and probit modelling to estimate how important the identified challenges are. The paper found that Nigeria’s unemployed youths have utmost interest in gambling to sustaining their income source and meeting daily spending. These activities have reduce crime rate orchestrated by the youths, but with rising displacement effects on household welfare and spending. The paper concludes that gambling has adverse effect of youth’s welfare and therefore, recommends that the Lagos State government should embark on formalizing all gambling activities to protect the gambling youths and strengthen tax revenue collection through the introduction of “per winning tax”.
It is with considerable pleasure that we present the inaugural issue of the Journal of Gambling Business and Economics
Authors: Vaughan Williams Leighton
Published: August 2020

There is a long-standing gap in the market for a journal that provides an outlet for academics and practitioners who have an interest in the economic and business aspects of the rapidly growing international gambling market. This journal is designed to fill this gap.
Just How Serious is Insider Trading? An evaluation using thoroughbred wagering markets
Authors: Coleman Les
Published: August 2020

This paper quantifies the extent and changes in insider trading in the Melbourne racetrack betting market using a unique, long term dataset. Wagering markets share many of the characteristics of other financial markets, and are simple, with good data and a designated endpoint. Thus they are an excellent natural laboratory to study what is probably happening in qualitatively similar conventional markets. Results of this paper provide statistically significant support for hypotheses supporting the existence and increase in level of insider trading, and suggest that around two percent of betting is by insiders.
THE HISTORY OF A LOTTERY GAME THAT WAS SELDOM WON
Authors: Forrest David , Alagic Dika
Published: August 2020

Lotto Extra was offered as part of the United Kingdom National Lottery’s portfolio of games between 2000 and 2006. A demand model for the game is estimated and used to illustrate a discussion of why sales of the game fell steadily to the point where it was no longer viable. Emphasis is placed on the lack of minor prizes and the long sequences of weeks when no one won the jackpot (and only) prize.
Searching for anchoring effects in a naturalistic environment: evidence from the Hong Kong horserace betting market
Authors: Johnson Johnnie EV , Liu Shuang
Published: August 2020

This paper explores the extent to which decision makers in a naturalistic environment, the Hong Kong horserace betting market, anchor their probability judgments on highly visible information and make insufficient adjustments in the light of additional data. Linear regression and conditional logit models are employed to examine the extent to which certain types of information are over-represented in market odds. The results suggest that, in contrast to much of the research on anchoring conducted in laboratories, the Hong Kong betting public do not anchor their judgements on past performances of horses, jockeys or trainers.
The Impact of Casino Gambling on Housing Markets: A Hedonic Approach
Authors: Wenz Mike
Published: August 2020

The social and economic impact of casino gambling has been a contentious issue in both the popular and academic press.  Prior academic research has focused largely on constructing piece-by-piece cost benefit accounting, but theoretical and measurement issues have prevented researchers from reaching a consensus as to the bottom line impact of casino gambling.  This paper uses a hedonic approach to estimate directly the implicit price and the welfare impacts of a casino on its local area.  The hedonic approach provides consistent estimates of the net change in social welfare without relying on a piecemeal approach to measuring costs and benefits.  Using data from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census of Population and Housing, the estimated net benefit of casino gambling at year 2000 levels was approximately 2% of household value, or about $2,000-$3,000 per household for households living near a casino.  Additionally, there are positive spillover effects to neighboring in-state regions and no significant costs to out-of-state border regions.  A particularly important finding for policymakers is that the benefits associated with a casino depend inversely on population density.  Casinos are more likely to create net benefits in areas where population density is low.
Is casino gaming a productive sector? A conceptual and cross-jurisdiction analysis
Authors: Siu Ricardo Chi Sen
Published: August 2020

Casino gaming has been one of the world’s fastest growing service sectors since the 1970s.  Different from the traditional service sectors which are theoretically extensions of physical goods production in an economy, casino gaming is a form of entertainment service intending to satisfy a specific form of human desire – to pay for a chance to win.  Despite the practical difficulties in measuring the economic output and input of casino gaming, data released by the industry suggest that this is a very productive sector.  In principle, while social costs associated with the provision of casino gaming may downgrade its productivity, promotion of investment, production and consumption of non-gaming services should be reckoned as part of the productivity of modern casino gaming.
Is the Gambler’s Fallacy Really a Fallacy?
Authors: Nyman John A
Published: August 2020

The behavior known as the gambler’s fallacy is exhibited when gamblers increase their wager after a series of losses.  The conventional interpretation of this behavior is that, after a series of losses, the gambler views the probability of winning as increasing.  However, if the probability is independently and identically distributed (as it normally is), previous losses do not affect the probabilities of subsequent gambles, hence the fallacy.This paper suggests an alternative explanation for the gambler’s fallacy behavior.  It holds that the gambler views the probability of a series of (outcomes resulting in) losses as very small.  Therefore, from an ex ante perspective, consumers strategize that if they lose, they will increase their wagers because a long series of losses is unlikely.  A simulation demonstrates the rationality of the gambler’s fallacy behavior by showing positive winnings when the theoretical expectation is $0.This same behavioral assumption is also behind the St. Petersburg Paradox.  The difference is that the low probability of a series motivates people to gamble with the gambler’s fallacy, but motivates people not to gamble with (or more accurately, not pay very much for) the St. Peters Paradox.  If anything, the gambler’s fallacy is a fallacy regarding the adequacy of the consumer’s bankroll, rather than a fallacy regarding a change in the probability of winning.
Some Notes on Optimal "Across the Board'' Parimutuel Bets
Authors: Hurley William
Published: August 2020

Recently I competed in a club golf competition where there was organized parimutuel betting on the outcome. I made an ``across the board'' (ATB) bet of $20 on our team to win, place, and show. Subsequently I wondered whether this was the best thing to do. Hence, this paper examines the theory of an optimal ATB parimutuel bet. The goal is to develop principles that would guide such wagering when a bettor has only limited information about the sizes of the betting pools and the relative probabilities of finish of the various teams.
An Examination of Two Competing Hypotheses: For the Demand for Lottery Tickets
Authors: Akay Ozzy , Griffiths Mark D. , Winters Drew B.
Published: August 2020

We extend previous research on higher sales for end-of-the-week lottery drawings to a longer time series and to different lotteries.  We find higher sales for end-of-the-week lotteries drawings with Wednesday/Saturday drawings and Tuesday/Friday drawings.  Additionally, higher Friday sales from daily lotteries along with results from bonus play opportunities and intraday lottery sales provide evidence suggesting that the leisure time hypothesis is an incomplete explanation for the observed phenomenon.  We offer an alternate explanation related to the preferred habitat for liquidity and suggest that an individual’s pool of discretionary funds is largest immediately following pay days. It is the fact that the most common pay pattern is weekly or biweekly with payment on Fridays which likely results in higher sales for end-of-the-week lottery drawings.
Do Financial Incentives Affect The Quality Of Expert Performance? Evidence From The Racetrack
Authors: Boyle Glenn
Published: August 2020

Does the quality of performance by experts respond to financial incentives? I provide some new evidence on this question by examining the propensity of racehorse trainers to undertake effort-diverting actions. In a sample of 30426 horse races, I find that lower race stakes are strongly associated with more unexpected outcomes, consistent with more trainers exerting less-than-full effort in such races. These results continue to hold when low-information races are excluded from the sample, thereby ruling out the possibility that stake is simply a proxy for the level of information that is available to bettors. Moreover, in a sub-sample of 4416 races for which final odds data are available, the dispersion in odds is positively related to race stake, consistent with rational bettors recognising the incentives faced by trainers and incorporating this insight in their investments. As a group, horse trainers apparently tailor the quality of their services to the potential size of their remuneration from clients.
AN ALTERNATIVE EXPLANATION OF THE FAVORITE-LONGSHOT BIAS
Authors: Kukuk Martin , Winter Stefan
Published: August 2020

Empirical studies of horse race betting in the US, the UK, Australia, and Germany have empirically established the so called favorite-longshot bias. It was found that bets on longshots on average lose much more than bets on favorites. The theoretical literature on wagering markets has offered a variety of explanations for that bias. One of the most prominent is the assumption of a homogeneous bettor population with a preference for risk. However, the risk-love explanation has also been severely challenged. We add to this challenge by proposing a different explanation of the favorite-longshot bias. We show that if populations of bettors have only noisy estimates of horses’ true winning probabilities, a favorite-longshot bias will be the market equilibrium outcome even with risk neutral bettors and even if the median estimate is correct. We provide evidence on four different types of bets broadly consistent with the noisy estimates assumption but not with the risk-love explanation.
Subjective Skewness of Return as an Explanation of the Optimal Choice between Gambles in Cumulative Prospect Theory
Authors: Peel David
Published: August 2020

Given that the expected return and variance of return of two gambles are equal  the hypothesis that the gamble with the greater  positive skewness of return will be chosen by an expected utility maximiser is appealing. However the hypothesis is  not, in general, correct. Brockett and Garven (1998) and Brocket and Kahane (1992) demonstrate this both theoretically and by constructing counter examples.A particularly revealing example is the following one constructed by Brockett and Kahane.  Gamble A has the two outcomes 2.45 and 7.49 with probabilities 0.5141 and 0.4859 respectively. Gamble B has the three outcomes 0, 4.947 and 10 with probabilities 0.12096, 0.750085 and 0.128955 respectively. Even though gamble A exhibits  lower expected return,  a higher variance and lower  positive skewness than gamble B it is preferred to gamble B by an expected utility maximiser on the basis of any standard utility function  such as power, log or exponential.  Consequently in this  example of theirs the expected utility maximiser exhibits an aversion to higher expected return and higher skewness and a preference for higher variance. As noted by Brockett and Kahane these results cannot be dismissed as decision makers “trading” variance for mean or skewness or having a strange idiosyncratic utility function.
What Does a Concept Attract? The Case of Gaming in Macau
Authors: Siu Ricardo Chi Sen , Neng Lai Rose
Published: August 2020

This paper examines herding behavior among Hong Kong investors using announcements of the opening of new casinos in Macau. The results show that there is a difference in the herding behavior toward these “Macau concept” stocks before and after the change in investment sentiment regarding Macau. Similar results are also revealed for the impact of announcements related to the Macau concept. Furthermore, investors in general herd more on selling than on buying upon a corresponding announcement. The evidence that is documented in this paper also suggests that there is herding around exceptional price and trading volume movements in the trading of Macau concept stocks.
Evaluating Crime Attributable to Casinos in the U.S.: A Closer Look at Grinols and Mustard’s “Casinos, Crime, and Community Costs”
Authors: Walker Douglas M
Published: August 2020

This paper examines problems in studying the relationship between casinos and crime, with a focus on a recently published, influential study (Grinols and Mustard 2006) which concluded that casinos cause a significant amount of county-level crime in the U.S. Five key issues are examined. First, the most serious problem with their analysis is that it uses a crime rate that excludes the visiting population at risk, thereby overstating the crime rate in casino counties. Second, the crime data used are potentially inaccurate. Third, the results may suffer from a bias caused by counties self-selecting into the “casino county” category. Fourth, the dummy variables used to account for casinos do not allow the authors to isolate the crime effect caused by casinos. Finally, the authors make conclusions that are not supported by their data, analysis, and results. An examination of these issues is important because it will shed additional light on the debate over the effects of casinos, and provides valuable information for subsequent researchers who study the casino-crime relationship.I am grateful to Jay Albanese, Bill Eadington, David Forrest, Mark Nichols, Don Ross, and Richard Thalheimer for helpful comments and suggestions, and especially to John Jackson and Ben Scafidi for helpful discussions on this paper. I am responsible for the content and any errors.
Just How Serious is Insider Trading? An evaluation using thoroughbred wagering markets
Authors: Coleman Les
Published: August 2020

This paper quantifies the extent and changes in insider trading in the Melbourne racetrack betting market using a unique, long term dataset. Wagering markets share many of the characteristics of other financial markets, and are simple, with good data and a designated endpoint. Thus they are an excellent natural laboratory to study what is probably happening in qualitatively similar conventional markets. Results of this paper provide statistically significant support for hypotheses supporting the existence and increase in level of insider trading, and suggest that around two percent of betting is by insiders.Research for this paper was supported by a grant from the Economics and Commerce faculty at the University of Melbourne, and was conducted very efficiently by Andrew Saunderson. Dr Ian O’Connor provided excellent assistance with analysis of data. I am grateful for valuable comments from the Journal’s editor and an anonymous reviewer, and from delegates to the 2004 Australasian Finance and Banking Conference where an early version of this paper was presented. All remaining errors and omissions are mine.
TABLE GAMES OR SLOTS? COMPETITION, EVOLUTION AND GAME PREFERENCE IN MACAO’S CASINO MARKET
Authors: Siu Ricardo Chi Sen , Eadington William R.
Published: August 2020

The opening of Macao’s casino industry with new legislation passed by the government of the Macao Special Administrative Region (MSAR) in February 2002 has provided the opportunity for new foreign casino operators – Wynn Resorts (Macao) Limited, Las Vegas Sands, Galaxy Casino Company Limited (Hong Kong), MGM Mirage, Melco Crown, and potentially others – to launch casino operations in this territory. One of the strategic decisions that new participants in this market must make is the composition of table games and slot machine offerings, as well as the mix of gaming and non-gaming amenities, to be employed in their new casino properties. The evaluation of the characteristics of, and prospects for table games and slots in the emerging gaming market of Macao is also of considerable interest to the casino operations of SJM – a wholly-owned subsidiary of the previous casino monopoly STDM, and its sub-concessionaires.In comparison with casinos in North America and Europe, table games generate an exceptionally high proportion of casino gaming revenue in Macao. To conduct an objective study over this phenomenon, and to provide a reasonable forecast on future trends, this paper examines and discusses historical, social and economic factors that have driven the relative attraction for table games in Macao’s casinos. The paper also reviews the utilization of electronic gaming devices (slot machines) and their recent developments in Macao’s casinos. A comparison of the key determinants of the demand for table games and slots makes it clear that, at least in the near to intermediate future, the optimal strategy for Macao’s casino operators is to retain a high proportion of table games. This is in spite of the fact that the labor costs and floor space demands of table games are typically much higher than those of slots. Nonetheless, because of player preferences and betting patterns, the average net profit margin per square foot of allocated space from operating table games has so far remained considerably higher than that from slot machines.
A STATISTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF FIXED ODDS BETTING RULES IN SOCCER
Authors: Webber Don J , Milliner Ian , White Paul
Published: August 2020

Two simple but seemingly profitable betting rules for betting on the away win in association football are developed.  One rule is consistent with avoiding those games in which there is a clear favourite.  The second rule is based directly on modelling bookmaker odds and assessing the residuals under the fitted model.  Contrary to previous research the betting rule using the residuals suggests avoiding betting on those games where there are large discrepancies between bookmaker odds and predicted-model odds.
ARE BEHAVIORAL BIASES CONSISTENT ACROSS THE ATLANTIC?: THE OVER/UNDER MARKET FOR EUROPEAN SOCCER
Authors: Weinbach Andy , Paul Rodney J.
Published: August 2020

Tests of the totals (Over/Under) market are performed for 22 European Soccer Leagues to determine if the behavioral biases found in North American sports betting markets are present in European Football (Soccer) betting markets.  Even though European fans passionately follow a low-scoring sport, bettors/fans in this market still appear to prefer the over to the under.  Simple betting strategies based on betting the over lose more than twice as much money as a simple strategy of betting the under and returns are found to be statistically different from a fair bet.  In addition, when the over is the longshot, a favorite-longshot bias is found such that losses on the over are extremely high.  When the under is the longshot, however, losses are nearly equal between overs and unders.  This presents the possibility multiple behavioral biases may exist in the same financial market, with the presence of one possibly masking the other.
AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF CHOICES BETWEEN GAMBLES OF CHILDREN AND ADULTS IN CHINA
Authors: Peel David , Paya Ivan , Jie Zhang Jie Zhang
Published: August 2020

In a unique study Harbaugh, Krause and Vesterlund (2002), reported the interesting result that children exhibit different probability weighting to adults. In particular, children underweighted small probabilities. An objective of this paper is to re-examine this issue employing children respondents from a different ethnic background. Overall, our results for Chinese children (age 4-6) are broadly consistent with those of Harbaugh, Krause and Vesterlund (2002) in that over a range of low probabilities they appear to underweight small probabilities though not for the smallest probabilities. The outcomes for Chinese high school students, aged 11-14, are similar to those for children in some respects and broadly consistent with the results reported by  Harbaugh, Krause and Vesterlund (2002). Our results for Chinese adults (age 20-57) are not consistent with the results reported for Western respondents but are consistent with those reported for some non-western respondents.
A TOBIT REGRESSION MODEL OF FOOTBALL PERFORMANCE VARIABLES FOR A PROFITABLE FIXED ODDS BETTING STRATEGY
Authors: White Paul , Pat Sessford Pat Sessford
Published: August 2020

An analysis of in-match football team performances in European top flight matches has been undertaken to develop profitable betting strategies in the fixed odds market. Three profitable betting strategies for betting on the home win are derived using a novel application of the Tobit regression model. Net profits of in excess of 15% are obtained in unseen out-of-sample testing. The generation of these profits may indicate that general team performance information may not be correctly factored into the fixed odds offered by bookmakers.
ASPECTS OF KENO MODELLING
Authors: Sugden Stephen J
Published: August 2020

In two earlier papers, an intricate Jackpot structure and analysis of pseudo-random numbers for Keno in the Australian state of Queensland circa 2000 were described. Aspects of the work were also reported at an international conference . Since that time, many aspects of the game in Australia have changed. The present paper presents more up-to-date details of Keno throughout the states of Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. A much simpler jackpot structure is now in place and this is described. Two add-ons or side-bets to the game are detailed: the trivial Heads or Tails and the more interesting Keno Bonus, which leads to consideration of the subset sum problem. The most intricate structure is where Heads or Tails and Keno Bonus are combined, and here, the issue of independence arises. Closed expressions for expected return to player (ERTP) are presented in all cases.
CASINOS AND ECONOMIC WELL-BEING: EVALUATING THE ALBERTA FIRST NATIONS’ EXPERIENCE
Authors: Belanger Yale D , Williams Robert J , Arthur Jennifer N
Published: August 2020

Many of Canada’s First Nations have introduced casinos as an economic strategy to help mitigate existing socio-economic disparities. In total 17 First Nation casinos currently operate in the Canadian provinces of British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario, while the provincial Nova Scotia First Nations operate ‘Video Lottery Terminal (VLT) palaces’ (i.e., no table games). Although the economic benefits of Native casinos in the United States are well documented, there is very little research to determine whether the same effects exist in Canada. The present research seeks to partly fill this void by evaluating the impact of the recent introduction of casinos to Alberta First Nation (i.e., reserve) communities. Findings show that there is significant variability in the economic benefits between communities. Nonetheless, it is clear that, in general, the introduction of casinos in Alberta has broad economic benefits to Alberta First Nations.
APPLYING THE FULL RANGE LEADERSHIP MODEL TO MANAGING EMPLOYEES IN THE LAS VEGAS CASINO-GAMING INDUSTRY
Authors: Goussak Gregory W , Webber Jon K , Ser Elliot
Published: August 2020

Early researchers concluded that leaders exhibit certain qualities not found among the common man (Bass, 1990; Burns, 1978; Hernez-Broome & Hughes, 2004; Moser & vander Nat, 2003; Northouse, 2010; and Stodgill, 1948).  As researchers started looking at these phenomena, they realized that leadership is an evolving process that changes from paradigm-to-paradigm; shifting as environmental values change within society (Bass, 1990).  The significant growth of the casino-gaming industry over the past two decades necessitates management understanding of how leading in the 21st century could affect operational productivity and organizational performance.  The purpose of this research study was to investigate and analyze employee perceptions about managerial leadership styles in the Las Vegas casino-gaming industry.  This study focused on the leadership styles in the Full Range Leadership Model (FRLM) and the relationship between employee perceptions and revenue growth.  Participants completed the Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire Form 5X (MLQ) to communicate their perceptions about managerial leadership styles.  The study discovered that employees in Las Vegas casino-gaming operations perceived their managers as following the contingent rewards transactional leadership style and that revenue growth was not a determining factor in their perceptions.
EU GAMBLING AT THE INTERSECTION OF POLICY AND LITIGATION
Authors: Kaburakis Anastasios , Rodenberg Ryan M.
Published: August 2020

Given its high level of regulation, the gambling industry must be able to react quickly to litigation and resulting change in policy (and enforcement thereof).  Using a case study approach, this short paper highlights how the twin issues of policy and litigation have recently impacted the gambling industry in the European Union.  Examples focus on recent developments in the EU that outline the relevant contours of the European Court of Justice’s jurisprudence, with a special emphasis on the dynamic situation in Greece.   These examples shape the ensuing discussion of the future of both the regulation and litigation of the EU’s gambling industry.
INFORMATION AND IDIOSYNCRATIC RISK IN THE NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL BETTING MARKET
Authors: Horowitz Ira
Published: August 2020

Betting lines and scores from the 2009/10 college basketball season for 169 mid-major and major colleges are used to verify the efficiency hypothesis for the betting-market analogy to the CAPM-based market model. As in that model, the portion of the variance in the spreads that is unexplained by the betting lines is the idiosyncratic risk associated with a team’s games. The paper shows that this risk is due to team-specific and conference-specific informational and consistency-of-play factors that impact bettors’ decisions.
THE GAMBLING HABITS OF ONLINE POKER PLAYERS
Authors: Fiedler Ingo
Published: August 2020

Online poker is a data goldmine. Recording actual gambling behavior gives rise to a host of research opportunities. Still, investigations using such data are rare with the exception of nine pioneering studies by Harvard Medical School which are reviewed here. This paper fills part of the vacuum by analyzing the gambling habits of a sample of 2,127,887 poker playing identities at Pokerstars over a period of six months. A couple of playing variables are operationalized and were analyzed on their own as well as connected with each other in form of the playing volume ($ rake a player has paid in a time frame).The main findings confirm the results of the Harvard studies: most online poker players only play a few times and for very low stakes. An analysis of the relationship between the playing habits shows that they reinforce each other with the exception of the playing frequency which moderates gambling involvement. The average values of the playing habits are considerably higher due to a small group of intense players: the 99% percentile player has a playing volume that is 552 times higher than that of the median player (US$2,685), and 1% of the players account for 60% of playing volume (10% for even 91%). This group is analyzed more thoroughly, and a discussion shows that the first impulse to peg intense players as (probable) pathological gamblers is wrong. Rather, future research is needed to distinguish problem gamblers from professional players.
ECONOMICS OF POKER: THE EFFECT OF SYSTEMIC CHANCE
Authors: Hannum Roger , Rutherford Matthew , Dalton Teresa
Published: August 2020

For more than a millennium, people have been drawn to card games because they provide an interesting and entertaining forum for the elements of chance and skill to play out. Current players risk running afoul of the law when, in the course of play in a game of chance, money is wagered and won or lost. Several recent criminal and civil court actions in the U.S. have focused on the extent to which skill is a factor in the game of poker and this question is the subject of much debate in legal and political arenas. If chance is the driving force underlying the economics of poker, some states are considering the possibility of regulating―and thus legalizing―poker for the potential revenues it may generate. If poker is a game in which outcomes are dominated by skill, most states would lack the regulatory power over this multibillion dollar industry. This paper examines the factors affecting players’ returns on investments in poker and presents the results of an analysis of one billion hands of real online poker games.
COMMON SENSE LEADERSHIP CONSIDERATIONS FOR EMERGING CASINO MANAGERS
Authors: Webber Jon K , Goussak Gregory W
Published: August 2020

Many people consider the term common sense to be undefinable yet it is recognizable when one sees it in action. The same holds true for the word leadership, which has several thousand opinions on what it represents yet there is no a clear and acceptable classification or definition from theorists or practitioners.   The third term, emerging manager, also is mystifying because the people it really applies to do not always comprehend that someone is talking about them.  Let’s first define what we are talking about when using these expressions so we are all on the same page for further discussion.Common sense in the vernacular of this chapter relates to something that is a recognizable best practice that if not performed would indicate to others that person is lacking the ability to understand how to handle an issue in the proper business way.  An example of this would be if a certain repeat visit Diamond level player had requested a certain type of room every time he came to your casino and for some reason the online system does not have that request shown on the screen then the common sense decision would be what? To accommodate that person so they can spend more time at the tables instead of arguing with staff over items that neither party can resolve at that moment. You certainly would not want to have them move to another hotel using their other high level loyalty card over an entry error, would you? The right decision on your part would be what we would call common sense.
INFORMATION EFFECTS AND NATIONAL HOCKEY LEAGUE BETTING MARKET EFFICIENCY
Authors: Ryan Matt E , Gramm Marshall , McKinney C. Nicholas
Published: August 2020

Previous studies of the National Hockey League (NHL) betting market claim a general movement towards efficiency over the last two decades.  These studies, however, assume a homogenous betting market with regards to the time of year in which bets are placed.  Differences in available information—information effects—have been shown to distort the Major League Baseball betting market; they produce similar distortions when considered in the NHL market as well.  As such, previous claims of market efficiency must be revisited in light of heterogeneous information.
GAMBLING ON GAMBLING: FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS OF RAISING BET LIMITS AND TABLE DIFFERENTIALS
Authors: Spence Mark T , Sugden Stephen J , Kale Sudhir
Published: August 2020

The house advantage for Baccarat is known, hence the theoretical win can be determined. What is impractical to theoretically determine is the frequency and financial implications of extreme events, for example, prolonged winning streaks coupled with various betting patterns. The simulation herein provides such granularity. We explore the effect of following the ‘hot hand’, that is, rapidly escalating bets when players are on a winning streak. To minimize their exposure, casino management sets a table bet maximum as well as a table differential. These figures can and do serve as a means to differentiate one casino from another. As the allowable bet maximum increases so does the total amount bet, which increases the theoretical winnings, thus suggesting that a high bet limit and differential is beneficial for the house. However, the greater are these amounts, the greater the number of shoes that end with players losing relative to a constant betting scenario (the number of times a player wins at all can drop from ~47% of the time to less than a quarter); but there will, on occasion, be more extreme payouts to players. This simulation is therefore intended to help casino managers set betting limits that maximize total winnings while bearing in mind both the likelihood and magnitude of negative outcomes to the casino.
WHAT ATTRIBUTES ARE SOUGHT BY CHINESE CASINO VISITORS WHEN THEY VISIT A CASINO?
Authors: Chan Sow Hup , Wan Penny Yim King , Speece Mark
Published: August 2020

Understanding what attributes are sought by casino visitors during their visit to a casino can enable casino operators to enhance the quality of service elements. This study assessed the important casino attributes that casino visitors seek when visiting a casino. The study also seek to identify the major segments of casino visitors with similar preferences for casino attributes, and determine whether difference(s) may exist between segments in terms of trip behavior and socio-demographic characteristics. Using the benefit segmentation approach, quantitative data were collected from 371 Chinese casino visitors. Four distinct segments of Chinese casino visitors were identified; namely games customers, casual tryout customers, employee service customers, and casino goers. Two segments were actually concerned with gaming specifically. Based on the findings, we established that casinos need to identify strategic segments and allocate adequate resources to achieve the competitive advantages of each segment. Casinos also need to develop innovative products or services for particular segments whose members may not see gaming as the main reason to visit casinos. This research highlights the need to use benefit segmentation to understand the visitors to casino properties.
INFORMATION AND ATTITUDES TO RISK AT THE TRACK
Authors: Schnytzer Adi , Westreich Sara
Published: August 2020

There have been many attempts, theoretical and empirical, to explain the persistence of a favorite-longshot bias in various horse betting markets. Most recently, Snowberg and Wolfers (2010) have shown that the data for the US markets support a “misperceptions of probability” approach in line with prospect theory over a neoclassical approach of the Quandt (1986) type. However, their paper suffers from two basic difficulties which beset much of this literature. First, the theoretical model used fails to allow for the existence of horse betting markets which either display no such bias (or a reverse bias) as in Hong Kong and at least one large Australian market (Busche and Hall, 1988, Schnytzer, Shilony and Thorne, 2003 and Luppi and Schnytzer, 2008). Second, econometric testing and theoretical modeling are facilitated by the highly unrealistic assumption that the betting population is homogeneous with respect to either information or attitude to risk or (usually) both. Our purpose is to show that allowing for heterogeneous betting populations (in terms of both attitude to risk and access to information) permits the explanation for the different biases (or their absence) observed in different markets accommodating both a framework of rational bettors and the requirements of prospect theory. We conclude with empirical support for our model.
Are the odds odd? Positive return evidence in German horse race betting
Authors: Hoff Philipp Heinrich
Published: August 2020

The article deals with the question, if odds derived from the behavior of bettors in a pari-mutuel setting really reflect the chances of winning for a particular horse in a particular race. Using a unique data set with more than 46,000 race observations from Germany for the years 2001 to 2003 the paper presents evidence on the favorite long-shot bias, evaluates the predictive power of totalizator odds, uses a binary logistic regression model to predict probabilities of winning and finally suggests three wagering strategies that actually yield positive returns in a hold-out oriented analytical setting.
Casinos and Economic Growth: An Update
Authors: Walker Douglas M
Published: August 2020

As U.S. politicians and voters continue to grapple with the slower-than-expected recovery from the 2007-09 recession, the legalization (or expansion) of commercial casinos has become an increasingly popular policy. Casinos are politically popular because the state government legalizes them, and can thus create a new industry which pays high taxes and may stimulate employment and economic development. Despite the fact that casinos are now widespread in the United States – there are around 1,000 commercial and tribal casinos – the empirical evidence on their economic impacts is still negligible.In two previous studies ( we have tested the relationship between state-level casino revenues and per capita income (i.e., economic growth) to provide evidence on whether or not casinos have a positive economic impact on states’ economies. We have utilized a Granger causality model modified for use with panel data. Our initial evidence, from a paper published in 1998, indicated that casinos do Granger cause economic growth. However, when we re-tested the model using up-to-date data (at the time, through 2005), we found no significant results. The casino industry has grown extensively since 2005, and although the recession of 2007-09 had a negative impact on the casino industry, the national-level revenue numbers are again climbing.We extend our previous analyses in order to provide updated evidence on the economic growth impact of commercial casinos in the United States. Section 2 provides a more detailed background of our previous analysis and an overview of other relevant literature. Section 3 describes the data and model, and provides the results. Section 4 is a discussion and conclusion.
INTRODUCTION
Authors: Etches Marc W.
Published: August 2020

Welcome to this special edition of the Journal of Gambling Business and Economics.In Great Britain, it has become a regulatory and commercial imperative, to better understand consumer behaviour in relation to gaming machines and gambling-related harm. Businesses seek to improve their offering of gambling-related products and services in relation to market demand which may include changes to game parameters (e.g., increases in stakes and prizes). The regulator seeks to foster an environment where the gambling industry can flourish, but not at the expense of the well-being of consumers generally, and vulnerable players in particular.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE REGULATORY ENVIRONMENT GOVERNING COMMERCIAL GAMBLING AND THE SHAPE OF THE MARKET IN THE SUPPLY AND GAME PARAMETERS OF GAMING MACHINES
Authors: Miers David
Published: August 2020

This paper has three main purposes. The first sets the controls over the supply and the game parameters of gaming machines within the broader regulatory environment governing commercial gambling in Great Britain. This account notes the tensions that existed prior to the regime introduced by the Gambling Act 2005, but whose legacy continues to present both regulatory and commercial difficulties. Its second purpose is to indicate how these controls have shaped the gaming machine market and the debate around the ways in which the government could realise its policy of striking a balance between the interests of both operators and players. This paper does not address the regulation of online gambling; that is, ‘remote gambling’ by means of ‘remote communication’ (s. 4 of the Gambling Act 2005). Its third purpose is to provide a critical account of the regulatory regime governing the availability of gaming machines as the background against which the Responsible Gambling Trust’s other commissioned contextual papers may be read.The text falls into four sections:An overview of the regulation of machines under the Gaming Act 1968 and of the reasons underlying the structure of the new regimeA summary of the overall regulatory structure of the 2005 ActA descriptive account of the 2005 Act’s regulation of machinespreliminarycommon core definitional features of a ‘gaming machine’the categories of gaming machinesgaming machine licences and permitsconditions and standards for their use4.Some concluding comments on how these arrangements have shaped both the commercial availability of gaming machines and the debate about how the interests of operators and of players can be accommodated
DOES PARETO RULE INTERNET GAMBLING? PROBLEMS AMONG THE “VITAL FEW” & “TRIVIAL MANY”
Authors: Tom Matthew A. , LaPlante Debi A. , Shaffer Howard J.
Published: August 2020

Using records of Internet gambling subscribers (n = 1,384), this study tested the Pareto principle: about 20% of customers, “the vital few,” are responsible for about 80% of the activity, while 80%, “the trivial many,” are responsible for the remaining 20%. Participants completed the Brief Biosocial Gambling Screen (BBGS) and had a history of betting on sports and/or online casino games during the twelve months before completing the screen. Using various measures, the vital few Internet gamblers ranged between 4.6% and 17.8% of the subscribers – smaller than the Pareto principle would suggest. Between 38% and 67% of the vital few and between 24% and 35% of the trivial many screened positive for gambling-related problems. This research suggests that the concepts of the “vital few” and the “trivial many” apply to Internet gambling.
When is a multiple bet better than a single ?
Authors: Zafiris Nicos
Published: August 2020

The paper addresses an apparent paradox observed in betting on football scores, drawing on 20-year data from the English 2nd tier division (Championship). While accumulator bets have a lower Net Expected Value than single bets, ‘cross double’ bets on the scores, placed over successive playing rounds, produce distinctly better results and indeed a positive return overall. It is argued that this effect rests on the essential stability of the score frequencies across playing seasons and on the bookmakers’ failure, in setting the odds, to allow for occasional and temporary deviations from long run average frequencies. A betting strategy based on overdue scores occurring with compensating frequencies, and possibly clustered together, can then produce positive returns. Neglect of overdue scores can be expressed formally as a bias augmenting the probability of these and turning the odds in the bettor’s favour. It is shown that, while normally the bettor’s disadvantage is compounded in multiple bets, a compounded advantage results once the odds become better than fair. The paper also discusses certain quasi binomial characteristics of the betting involved and explores possible ways of hedging such bets ‘in running’.
Slot Machine Payback Percentages: The Devil is in the Moment
Authors: Farrow Robert Scott , Costa Jackson
Published: August 2020

The average payback percentage from slot machines is important to gamblers, casinos and governments.  While apparently simple to define several complications can exist, among them which measure to average and potentially misleading formulas to calculate the average.  Daily slot machine data from the state of Maryland for 19 months are analyzed for the expected value of the average payback ratio per machine and per dollar gambled.  On a per dollar gambled basis, the payback percentage meets legislative requirements that the gaming floor payback be at least 90 percent. On a per machine basis, that requirement is not met which can imply a significant shift of money from gamblers to casino operators and the state. Other payback measures are hypothesized to also be less than the per-dollar gambled measure but data are lacking.