Budget Modifications under the Influence of Economic Transformations
Authors:   Architecture and Land Use of Sviatoshynska District State Administration in Kyiv, Kucheriavyi Andrii 
Published: June 2022

Introduction. It is substantiated that the accuracy of planning the revenue side of the budget is influenced by: forecast of socio-economic development, in particular changes in macroeconomic parameters that underlie the construction of tax bases taking into account changes in tax and customs legislation and other factors; inaccurate assumptions made in forecasting incomes based on historical data or expert estimates, the more complex the mechanisms and procedures for forming tax bases, the more complex the assumptions and hypotheses associated with economic development; other reasons not taken into account in forecasting, including repayment of debts for previous periods, recalculation of taxes and mandatory payments, etc. The following approaches to planning have been identified: medium-term macro-planning, which focuses on planning the general macroeconomic situation in the country; traditional fixed-term planning; planning of economic and functional structure of expenditures; and planning based on budget programs. Purpose. It was found that effective budget planning should be based on the needs and taking into account the development trends of individual sectors of the national economy. With this in mind, the regression equation of the dependence of tax revenues on the volume of GDP generated in the most important sectors: agriculture, forestry and fisheries (x1), industry (x2), construction (x3), wholesale and retail trade (x4), transport, warehousing, postal and courier activities (x5). All of these indicators have been found to be closely related to the performance indicator. Results. The advantages of medium-term financial plans are identified, the essence of which is that they: 1) create a basis for forecasting the consequences of decision-making in public policy; 2) is a tool for medium-term planning of the fiscal strategy of the state; 3) ensure transparency and efficient allocation of budget resources; 4) form the preconditions for ensuring the stability and consistency of fiscal policy. It is proved that the successful development of medium-term budget planning is ensured by: the existence of a system of priority goals of state development, in accordance with which the activities of the relevant authorities are built and budget funds are distributed; the existence of a system of medium-term (long-term) forecasting; clear division of powers between branches, levels and individual public authorities on issues of state policy development and budget design; systematic application of budget planning tools; stable and comprehensive regulatory legal regulation of budget planning. Conclusions. Examining the components of the budget planning system based on the application of world experience and recommendations of international organizations, it was found that the most noteworthy is budget planning based on efficiency indicators, the practice of which is practically absent in Ukraine. It is argued that budget planning based on performance indicators can be implemented in three areas (types): presentation performance budgeting, data on budget policy results, goals or results are covered in legal documents as reference information for accountability and dialogue with legislators and citizens on issues public policy; such information is informative (approach, the elements of which are used in Ukraine); budgeting based on planned results involves planning budget resources indirectly related to the desired future results or past performance; direct performance budgeting involves the allocation of resources based on the results achieved.