bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Distributed power-law seismicity changes and crustal deformation in the SW Hellenic ARC
Authors: Tzanis A. , Vallianatos F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A region of definite accelerating seismic release rates has been identified at the SW Hellenic Arc and Trench system, of Peloponnesus, and to the south-west of the island of Kythera (Greece). The identification was made after detailed, parametric time-to-failure modelling on a 0.1° square grid over the area 20° E – 27° E and 34° N–38° N. The observations are strongly suggestive of terminal-stage critical point behaviour (critical exponent of the order of 0.25), leading to a large earthquake with magnitude 7.1 ± 0.4, to occur at time 2003.6 ± 0.6. In addition to the region of accelerating seismic release rates, an adjacent region of decelerating seismicity was also observed. The acceleration/deceleration pattern appears in such a well structured and organised manner, which is strongly suggestive of a causal relationship. An explanation may be that the observed characteristics of distributed power-law seismicity changes may be produced by stress transfer from a fault, to a region already subjected to stress inhomogeneities, i.e. a region defined by the stress field required to rupture a fault with a specified size, orientation and rake. Around a fault that is going to rupture, there are bright spots (regions of increasing stress) and stress shadows (regions relaxing stress); whereas acceleration may be observed in bright spots, deceleration may be expected in the shadows. We concluded that the observed seismic release patterns can possibly be explained with a family of NE-SW oriented, left-lateral, strike-slip to oblique-slip faults, located to the SW of Kythera and Antikythera and capable of producing earthquakes with magnitudes MS ~ 7. Time-to-failure modelling and empirical analysis of earthquakes in the stress bright spots yield a critical exponent of the order 0.25 as expected from theory, and a predicted magnitude and critical time perfectly consistent with the figures given above. Although we have determined an approximate location, time and magnitude, it is as yet difficult to assert a prediction for reasons discussed in the text. However, our results, as well as similar independent observations by another research team, indicate that a strong earthquake may occur at the SW Hellenic Arc, in the next few years.
Fractal analysis of the ULF geomagnetic data obtained at Izu Peninsula, Japan in relation to the nearby earthquake swarm of June–August 2000
Authors: Gotoh K. , Hayakawa M. , Smirnova N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In our recent papers we applied fractal methods to extract the earthquake precursory signatures from scaling characteristics of the ULF geomagnetic data, obtained in a seismic active region of Guam Island during the large earthquake of 8 August 1993. We found specific dynamics of their fractal characteristics (spectral exponents and fractal dimensions) before the earthquake: appearance of the flicker-noise signatures and increase of the time series fractal dimension. Here we analyze ULF geomagnetic data obtained in a seismic active region of Izu Peninsula, Japan during a swarm of the strong nearby earthquakes of June–August 2000 and compare the results obtained in both regions. We apply the same methodology of data processing using the FFT procedure, Higuchi method and Burlaga-Klein approach to calculate the spectral exponents and fractal dimensions of the ULF time series. We found the common features and specific peculiarities in the behavior of fractal characteristics of the ULF time series before Izu and Guam earthquakes. As a common feature, we obtained the same increase of the ULF time series fractal dimension before the earthquakes, and as specific peculiarity – this increase appears to be sharp for Izu earthquake in comparison with gradual increase of the ULF time series fractal dimension for Guam earthquake. The results obtained in both regions are discussed on the basis of the SOC (self-organized criticality) concept taking into account the differences in the depths of the earthquake focuses. On the basis of the peculiarities revealed, we advance methodology for extraction of the earthquake precursory signatures. As an adjacent step, we suggest the combined analysis of the ULF time series in the parametric space polarization ratio – fractal dimension. We reason also upon the advantage of the multifractal approach with respect to the mono-fractal analysis for study of the earthquake preparation dynamics.
Dynamics of multifractal and correlation characteristics of the spatio-temporal distribution of regional seismicity before the strong earthquakes
Authors: Kiyashchenko D. , Smirnova N. , Troyan V. , Vallianatos F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Investigations of the distribution of regional seismicity and the results of numerical simulations of the seismic process show the increase of inhomogenity in spatio-temporal distribution of the seismicity prior to large earthquakes and formation of inhomogeneous clusters in a wide range of scales. Since that, the multifractal approach is appropriate to investigate the details of such dynamics. Here we analyze the dynamics of the seismicity distribution before a number of strong earthquakes occurred in two seismically active regions of the world: Japan and Southern California. In order to study the evolution of spatial inhomogeneity of the seismicity distribution, we consider variations of two multifractal characteristics: information entropy of multifractal measure generation process and the higher-order generalized fractal dimension of the continuum of the earthquake epicenters. Also we studied the dynamics of the level of spatio-temporal correlations in the seismicity distribution. It is found that two aforementioned multifractal characteristics tend to decrease and the level of spatio-temporal correlations tends to increase before the majority of considered strong earthquakes. Such a tendency can be considered as an earthquake precursory signature. Therefore, the results obtained show the possibility to use multifractal and correlation characteristics of the spatio-temporal distribution of regional seismicity for seismic hazard risk evaluation.
Tsunami generation in Stromboli island and impact on the south-east Tyrrhenian coasts
Authors: Tinti S. , Pagnoni G. , Zaniboni F. , Bortolucci E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Stromboli is one of the most active volcanoes in the Aeolian island arc in south Tyrrhenian sea, Italy. In the last 100 years the most relevant volcanic eruptions have beenaccompanied by local tsunamis, that have caused damage and casualties. In some cases the direct mechanism of local tsunami generation is clear, i.e. pyroclastic flows entering the sea. In some others it is uncertain and some speculation concerning the collapse of the eruptive column on the sea surface or the failure of some underwater mass can be made. But the ordinary activity is unlikely to generate large regional tsunamis. These can be produced by the lateral collapse of the volcanic cone that geomorphological and volcanological  investigations have proven to have occurred repeatedly in the recent history of the volcano, with return period in the order of some thousands of years. The last episode is dated to less than 5 ka BP, and left the Sciara del Fuoco scar on the north-west flank of Stromboli. Based on previous studies, the possible collapse of the nortwestern sector of Stromboli and the consequent generation and propagation of a tsunami are explored. The impact on Stromboli and on the other islands of the Aeolian archipelago is estimated, as well as the impact on the coast of Sicily and the Tyrrhenian coasts of Calabria. The simulation is carried out by means of a double model: a Lagrangian block model to compute the motion of the collapsing mass, and a finite-element hydrodynamic model to compute the evolution of the tsunami. Two distinct tsunami simulations are carried out, one on a very fine grid around the source region to evaluate the tsunami near Stromboli, and one utilising a coarser grid covering the whole south-east Tyrrhenian sea to compute the tsunami propagation toward Sicily and Calabria. It is found that a huge-volume collapse of the north-western flank of the Stromboli cone is capable of producing a regional tsunami which is catastrophic at the source and devastating on long stretches of Tyrrhenian coasts, but particularly in the neighbouring islands of Panarea and Salina, and along the Calabria coasts around Capo Vaticano.
Simulation of tsunamis induced by volcanic activity in the Gulf of Naples (Italy)
Authors: Tinti S. , Pagnoni G. , Piatanesi A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The paper explores the potential of tsunami generation by pyroclastic flows travelling down the flank of the volcano Vesuvius that is found south of Naples in Italy. The eruption history of Vesuvius shows that it is characterised by large explosive eruptions of plinian or subplinian type during which large volume of pyroclastic flows can be produced. The most remarkable examples of such eruptions occurred in 79 AD and in 1631 and were catastrophic. Presently Vesuvius is in a repose time that, according to volcanologists, could be interrupted by a large eruption, and consequently proper plans of preparedness and emergency management have been devised by civil authorities based on a scenario envisaging a large eruption. Recently, numerical models of magma ascent and of eruptive column formation and collapse have been published for the Vesuvius volcano, and propagation of pyroclastic flows down the slope of the volcanic edifice up to the close shoreline have been computed. These flows can reach the sea in the Gulf of Naples: the denser slow part will enter the waters, while the lighter and faster part of the flow can travel on the water surface exerting a pressure on it. This paper studies the tsunami produced by the pressure pulse associated with the transit of the low-density phase of the pyroclastic flow on the sea surface by means of numerical simulations. The study is divided into two parts. First the hydrodynamic characteristics of the Gulf of Naples as regards the propagation of long waves are analysed by studying the waves radiating from a source that is a static initial depression of the sea level localised within the gulf. Then the tsunami produced by a pressure pulse moving from the Vesuvius toward the open sea is simulated: the forcing pulse features are derived from the recent studies on Vesuvian pyroclastic flows in the literature. The tsunami resulting from the computations is a perturbation involving the whole Gulf of Naples, but it is negligible outside, and persists within the gulf long after the transit of the excitation pulse. The size of the tsunami is modest. The largest calculated oscillations are found along the innermost coasts of the gulf at Naples and at Castellammare. The main conclusion of the study is that the light component of the pyroclastic flows produced by future large eruptions of Vesuvius are not expected to set up catastrophic tsunamis.
Simulation of the trans-oceanic tsunami propagation due to the 1883 Krakatau volcanic eruption
Authors: Choi B. H. , Pelinovsky E. , Kim K. O. , Lee J. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The 1883 Krakatau volcanic eruption has generated a destructive tsunami higher than 40 m on the Indonesian coast where more than 36 000 lives were lost. Sea level oscillations related with this event have been reported on significant distances from the source in the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Evidence of many manifestations of the Krakatau tsunami was a subject of the intense discussion, and it was suggested that some of them are not related with the direct propagation of the tsunami waves from the Krakatau volcanic eruption. Present paper analyzes the hydrodynamic part of the Krakatau event in details. The worldwide propagation of the tsunami waves generated by the Krakatau volcanic eruption is studied numerically using two conventional models: ray tracing method and two-dimensional linear shallow-water model. The results of the numerical simulations are compared with available data of the tsunami registration.
The 1867 Virgin Island Tsunami
Authors: Zahibo N. , Pelinovsky E. , Yalciner A. C. , Kurkin A. , Koselkov A. , Zaitsev A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The 1867 Virgin Island Tsunami reached large magnitude on the coasts of the Caribbean Islands. A maximum tsunami height of 10 m was reported for two coastal locations (Deshaies and Sainte-Rose) in Guadeloupe. Modelling of the 1867 tsunami is performed in the framework of the nonlinear shallow-water theory. The directivity of the tsunami wave source in the Caribbean Sea according to the assumed initial waveform is investigated. The tsunami records at the several coastal regions in the Lesser Antilles, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and South America are simulated. The comparison between the computed and observed data is in reasonable agreement.
A methodology for physically based rockfall hazard assessment
Authors: Crosta G. B. , Agliardi F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Rockfall hazard assessment is not simple to achieve in practice and sound, physically based assessment methodologies are still missing. The mobility of rockfalls implies a more difficult hazard definition with respect to other slope instabilities with minimal runout. Rockfall hazard assessment involves complex definitions for "occurrence probability" and "intensity". This paper is an attempt to evaluate rockfall hazard using the results of 3-D numerical modelling on a topography described by a DEM. Maps portraying the maximum frequency of passages, velocity and height of blocks at each model cell, are easily combined in a GIS in order to produce physically based rockfall hazard maps. Different methods are suggested and discussed for rockfall hazard mapping at a regional and local scale both along linear features or within exposed areas. An objective approach based on three-dimensional matrixes providing both a positional "Rockfall Hazard Index" and a "Rockfall Hazard Vector" is presented. The opportunity of combining different parameters in the 3-D matrixes has been evaluated to better express the relative increase in hazard. Furthermore, the sensitivity of the hazard index with respect to the included variables and their combinations is preliminarily discussed in order to constrain as objective as possible assessment criteria.
Kinematics of the 1991 Randa rockslides (Valais, Switzerland)
Authors: Sartori M. , Baillifard F. , Jaboyedoff M. , Rouiller J.-D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. About 22 mio m3 of rock fell from a cliff near the village of Randa (10 km north of Zermatt, Switzerland) on 18 April 1991. A second retrogressive rockslide of about 7 mio m3 followed on 9 May 1991. At present, a rock mass situated above the scarp is still slowly moving toward the valley, involving several mio m 3 of rock. A kinematic approach to study of this well-documented rockslide was made "a posteriori" in order to identify the parameters relevant to the detection of such failures involving large volumes of rock. A 3-D model of the pre-rockslide geometry is presented, and is used to interpret the geostructural, hydrogeological, and chronological data. The steepness of the cliff, the massive lithology (mainly orthogneiss), the location on a topographic ridge outcropping at the confluence between a glacial cirque and the main valley, and the existence of previous events of instability were the preexisting field conditions that affected the stability of the area. The structural cause of instability was a 30 dipping, more than 500-m-long, persistent fault, which cut the base of the rock face. Together with a steeply dipping set of persistent joints, this basal discontinuity delimited a 20- mio-m 3 rock block, with a potential sliding direction approximately parallel to the axis of the valley. To the North, the fractures delimiting the unstable mass were less persistent and separated by rock bridges; this rock volume acted as key block. This topographic and structural configuration was freed from glacier support about 15 000 years BP. The various mechanisms of degradation that led to the final loss of equilibrium required various amounts of time. During the late-and post-glacial periods, seismic activity and weathering of the orthogneiss along the fissure network due to infiltration of meteoric water, joined to reduce the mechanical resistance of the sliding surfaces and the rocks bridges. In addition, crystallisation of clay minerals due to mineralogical alteration of the fault gouge accumulated along the sliding surface, reducing its angle of internal friction, and sealing the surface against water circulation. Once this basal fracture began to act as an aquiclude, the seasonal increase of the hydraulic head in the fissures promoted hydraulic fracturing on the highly stressed edges of the key block. Acceleration of this mechanical degradation occurred during the 20-year period before the 1991 rockslides, giving rise to an increasing rockfall activity, that constituted a forewarning sign. The final triggering event corresponded to a snow-melt period with high water table, leading to fracturation around the key block. On 18 April 1991, the key block finally failed, allowing subsidiary orthogneiss blocks to slide. They fell in turn over a period of several hours. The 9 May 1991, rockslide was the first of a series of expected future retrogressive reequilibrium stages of the very fractured and decompressed paragneisses, which lie on the orthogneiss base cut by the 18 April event.
The relationship between landslide activity and weather: examples from Hungary
Authors: Szabó J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The paper presents the impact of irregular rainfall events triggering landslides in the regional context of landslides in Hungary. The author’s experience, gathered from decades of observations, confirms that landslide processes are strongly correlate with precipitation events in all three landscape types (hill regions of unconsolidated sediments; high bluffs along river banks and lake shores; mountains of Tertiary stratovolcanoes). Case studies for each landscape type underline that new landslides are triggered and old ones are reactivated by extreme winter precipitation events. This assertion is valid mainly for shallow and translational slides. Wet autumns favour landsliding, while the triggering influence of intense summer rainfalls is of a subordinate nature. A recent increasing problem lies in the fact that on previously unstable slopes, stabilised during longer dry intervals, an intensive cultivation starts, thus increasing the damage caused by movements during relatively infrequent wet winters.
Rockfall hazard mapping along a mountainous road in Switzerland using a GIS-based parameter rating approach
Authors: Baillifard F. , Jaboyedoff M. , Sartori M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A posteriori studies of rock slope instabilities generally show that rockfalls do not occur at random locations: the failure zone can be classified as sensitive from geomorphological evidence. Zones susceptible to failure can there-fore be detected. Effects resulting from degrading and triggering factors, such as groundwater circulation and freeze and thaw cycles, must then be assessed in order to evaluate the probability of failure. A simple method to detect rock slope instabilities was tested in a study involving a 2000 m3 rockfall that obstructed a mountainous road near Sion (Switzerland) on 9 January 2001. In order to locate areas from which a rock-fall might originate, areas were assessed with respect to the presence or absence of five criteria: (1) a fault, (2) a scree slope within a short distance, (3) a rocky cliff, (4) a steep slope, and (5) a road. These criteria were integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS) using existing topo-graphic, geomorphological, and geological vector and raster digital data. The proposed model yields a rating from 0 to 5, and gives a relative hazard map. Areas yielding a high relative hazard have to meet two additional criteria if they are to be considered as locations from which a rockfall might originate: (1) the local structural pattern has to be unfavourable, and (2) the morphology has to be susceptible to the effects of degrading and triggering factors. The rockfall of 9 January 2001, has a score of 5. Applied to the entire length of the road (4 km), the present method reveals two additional areas with a high relative hazard, and allows the detection of the main instabilities of the site.
The impact of landslides in the Umbria region, central Italy
Authors: Guzzetti F. , Reichenbach P. , Cardinali M. , Ardizzone F. , Galli M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Umbria Region of Central Italy has a long history of mass movements. Landslides range from fast moving rock falls and debris flows, most abundant in mountain areas, to slow moving complex failures extending up to several hectares in the hilly part of the Region. Despite landslides occurring every year in Umbria, their impact remains largely unknown. We present an estimate of the impact of slope failures in the Umbria region based on the analysis of a catalogue of historical information on landslide events, a recent and detailed regional landslide inventory map, and three event inventories prepared after major landslide triggering events. Emphasis is given to the impact of landslides on the population, the transportation network, and the built-up areas. Analysis of the available historical information reveals that 1488 landslide events occurred at 1292 sites in Umbria between 1917 and 2001. In the same period 16 people died or were missing and 31 people were injured by slope movements. Roads and railways were damaged by slope failures at 661 sites, and 281 built-up areas suffered landslide damage. Three event inventories showing landslides triggered by high intensity rainfall events in the period 1937–1941, rapid snow melting in January 1997, and earthquakes in September–October 1997, indicate the type, abundance and distribution of damage to the population, the built-up areas and the transportation network caused by typical landslide-triggering events. Analysis of a geomorphological landslide inventory map reveals that in some of the municipalities in the region total landslide area exceeds 25%. Of the more than 45 700 landslide areas shown in the geomorphological inventory map, 4115 intersect a road or railway, and 6119 intersect a built-up area. In these areas slope failures can be expected during future landslide triggering events.
Rockfall hazard and risk assessment in the Yosemite Valley, California, USA
Authors: Guzzetti F. , Reichenbach P. , Wieczorek G. F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Rock slides and rock falls are the most frequent types of slope movements in Yosemite National Park, California. In historical time (1857–2002) 392 rock falls and rock slides have been documented in the valley, and some of them have been mapped in detail. We present the results of an attempt to assess rock fall hazards in the Yosemite Valley. Spatial and temporal aspects of rock falls hazard are considered. A detailed inventory of slope movements covering the 145-year period from 1857 to 2002 is used to determine the frequency-volume statistics of rock falls and to estimate the annual frequency of rock falls, providing the temporal component of rock fall hazard. The extent of the areas potentially subject to rock fall hazards in the Yosemite Valley were obtained using STONE, a physically-based rock fall simulation computer program. The software computes 3-dimensional rock fall trajectories starting from a digital elevation model (DEM), the location of rock fall release points, and maps of the dynamic rolling friction coefficient and of the coefficients of normal and tangential energy restitution. For each DEM cell the software calculates the number of rock falls passing through the cell, the maximum rock fall velocity and the maximum flying height. For the Yosemite Valley, a DEM with a ground resolution of 10 × 10 m was prepared using topographic contour lines from the U.S. Geological Survey 1:24 000-scale maps. Rock fall release points were identified as DEM cells having a slope steeper than 60°, an assumption based on the location of historical rock falls. Maps of the normal and tangential energy restitution coefficients and of the rolling friction coefficient were produced from a surficial geologic map. The availability of historical rock falls mapped in detail allowed us to check the computer program performance and to calibrate the model parameters. Visual and statistical comparison of the model results with the mapped rock falls confirmed the accuracy of the model. The model results are compared with a previous map of rockfall talus and with a geomorphic assessment of rock fall hazard based on potential energy referred to as a shadow angle approach, recently completed for the Yosemite Valley. The model results are then used to identify the roads and trails more subject to rock fall hazard. Of the 166.5 km of roads and trails in the Yosemite Valley 31.2% were found to be potentially subject to rock fall hazard, of which 14% are subject to very high hazard.
Observations and modelling of soil slip-debris flow initiation processes in pyroclastic deposits: the Sarno 1998 event
Authors: Crosta G. B. , Dal Negro P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Pyroclastic soils mantling a wide area of the Campanian Apennines are subjected to recurrent instability phenomena. This study analyses the 5 and 6 May 1998 event which affected the Pizzo d’Alvano (Campania, southern Italy). More than 400 slides affecting shallow pyroclastic deposits were triggered by intense and prolonged but not extreme rainfall. Landslides affected the pyroclastic deposits that cover the steep calcareous ridges and are soil slip-debris flows and rapid mudflows. About 30 main channels were deeply scoured by flows which reached the alluvial fans depositing up to 400 000 m3 of material in the piedmont areas. About 75% of the landslides are associated with morphological discontinuities such as limestone cliffs and roads. The sliding surface is located within the pyroclastic cover, generally at the base of a pumice layer. Geotechnical characterisation of pyroclastic deposits has been accomplished by laboratory and in situ tests. Numerical modelling of seepage processes and stability analyses have been run on four simplified models representing different settings observed at the source areas. Seepage modelling showed the formation of pore pressure pulses in pumice layers and the localised increase of pore pressure in correspondence of stratigraphic discontinuities as response to the rainfall event registered between 28 April and 5 May. Numerical modelling provided pore pressure values for stability analyses and pointed out critical conditions where stratigraphic or morphological discontinuities occur. This study excludes the need of a groundwater flow from the underlying bedrock toward the pyroclastic cover for instabilities to occur.
Reassessment of the historical seismic activity with major impact on S. Miguel Island (Azores)
Authors: Silveira D. , Gaspar J. L. , Ferreira T. , Queiroz G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. On account of its tectonic setting, both seismic and volcanic events are frequent in the Azores archipelago. During the historical period earthquakes and seismic swarms of tectonic and/or volcanic origin have struck S. Miguel Island causing a significant number of casualties and severe damages. The information present in historical records made possible a new macroseismic analysis of these major events using the European Macroseismic Scale-1998 (EMS-98). Among the strongest earthquakes of tectonic origin that affected S. Miguel Island, six events were selected for this study. The isoseismal maps drawn for these events enabled the identification of areas characterized by anomalous values of seismic intensity, either positive or negative, to constrain epicentre locations and to identify some new seismogenic areas. Regarding seismic activity associated with volcanic phenomena six cases were also selected. For each of the studied cases cumulative intensity values were assessed for each locality. The distribution of local intensity values shows that the effects are not homogeneous within a certain distance from the eruptive centre, the area of major impacts relates with the eruptive style and damages equivalent to high intensities may occur in Furnas and Sete Cidades calderas. Combining all the historical macroseismic data, a maximum intensity map was produced for S. Miguel Island.
A historical analysis of hazardous events in the Alps – the case of Hindelang (Bavaria, Germany)
Authors: Barnikel F. , Becht M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A historical analysis of natural hazards for the Hindelang area in the Bavarian Alps is done by researching and assessing data from different archives. The focus is on an evaluation of historical hazards on a local scale by working with written documents only. Data is compiled from the archives of governmental departments, local authorities, private collections and state archives. The bandwidth of the assessed hazards includes floods, mass movements and snow avalanches. So far we have collected more than 400 references for events in the Hindelang area, some of which at times or in places where natural hazards used to be thought of as unlikely or unknown. Our aim was to collect all written data for this area and to deduce as much information on the hazardous effects on the environment as possible, thereby enhancing our knowledge about past climatic and geomorphic dynamics in the Alps.
Debris flow characteristics and relationships in the Central Spanish Pyrenees
Authors: Lorente A. , Beguería S. , Bathurst J. C. , García-Ruiz J. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Unconfined debris flows (i.e. not in incised channels) are one of the most active geomorphic processes in mountainous areas. Since they can threaten settlements and infrastructure, statistical and physically based procedures have been developed to assess the potential for landslide erosion. In this study, information on debris flow characteristics was obtained in the field to define the debris flow runout distance and to establish relationships between debris flow parameters. Such relationships are needed for building models which allow us to improve the spatial prediction of debris flow hazards. In general, unconfined debris flows triggered in the Flysch Sector of the Central Spanish Pyrenees are of the same order of magnitude as others reported in the literature. The deposition of sediment started at 17.8°, and the runout distance represented 60% of the difference in height between the head of the landslide and the point at which deposition started. The runout distance was relatively well correlated with the volume of sediment.
Relations between rainfall and triggering of debris-flow: case study of Cancia (Dolomites, Northeastern Italy)
Authors: Bacchini M. , Zannoni A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Debris-flows occurring in the area of Cancia (Dolomites, Northeastern Italy) in recent years have exposed the population to serious risk. In response to the recurring hazard, an alarm and monitoring system was installed to provide a sufficient level of safeguard for inhabitants and infrastructures. The data recorded at three rain gauges during debris-flow events has been analysed, taking into consideration the different elevation of the gauges to delineate the storm rainfall distributions. Rainfall data is compared with the occurrence of debris-flows to examine relations between debris-flow initiation and rainfall. In addition, the data is compared with that recorded during debris-flows which occurred under similar or different geological settings in the Eastern Italian Alps, in order to define triggering thresholds. A threshold for debris-flow activity in terms of mean intensity, duration and mean annual precipitation (M.A.P.) is defined for the study area The normalised rainfall and the normalised intensity are expressed as a per cent with respect to M.A.P. This threshold is compared with thresholds proposed by other authors, and the comparison shows that a lower value is obtained, indicating the debris-flow susceptibility of the area. The threshold equations are:  R/M.A.P. = - 1.36 · ln(I) + 3.93  where I > 2 mm/h  I /M.A.P. = 0.74 · D-0.56.  The determination of a debris-flow threshold is linked to the necessity of a fast decisional phase in a warning system for debris-flow protection. This threshold cannot be used as a predictive tool, but rather as a warning signal for technicians who manage the monitoring/warning system.
Atmospheric tide disturbances as Earthquake precursory phenomena
Authors: Arabelos D. N. , Asteriadis G. , Bloutsos A. , Contadakis M. E. , Spatalas S. D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The tidal changes of the barometric pressure in the area of Thessaloniki were studied by analysing a sample of 21 years of hourly measurements. The resulted tidal parameters (amplitude and phase difference) were considered as "mean values" of the corresponding parameters for this long time period. Using these parameters, barometric changes were computed and subtracted from the observations. Assuming that the residuals might include local (in terms of time) information,the residual time series was split in 21 blocks and a new analysis was performed for each block separately. The 21 amplitude values computed for each tidal wave were considered as the amplitude variation with respect to the correspondingmean value. An observable correlation of the amplitude exalting of the most of the tidal waves was found to Earthquakes of magnitude >4, occurred close to Thessaloniki in the test period.
The evolution of slope failures: mechanisms of rupture propagation
Authors: Petley D. N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Forecasting the occurrence of large, catastrophic slope failures remains very problematic. It is clear that in order advance this field a greater understanding is needed of the processes through which failure occurs. In particular, there is a need to comprehend the processes through which a rupture develops and propagates through the slope, and the nature of the inter-relationship between the stress and strain states of the landslide mass. To this end, a detailed analysis has been undertaken of the movement records for the Selborme Cutting slope failure, in which failure was deliberately triggered through pore pressure elevation. The data demonstrate that it is possible to determine the processes occurring in the basal region of the landslide, and thus controlling the movement of the mass, from the surface movement patterns. In particular, it is clear that the process of rupture development and propagation has a unique signature, allowing the development of the rupture to be traced from detailed surface monitoring. For landslides undergoing first time failure through rupture propagation, this allows the prediction of the time of failure as per the "Saito" approach. It is shown that for such predictions to be reliable, data from a number of points across the landslide mass are needed. Interestingly, due to the complex stress regime in that region, data from the crown may not be appropriate for failure prediction. Based upon these results, the application of new techniques for the detailed assessment of spatial patterns of the development of strain may potentially allow a new insight into the development of rupture surfaces and may ultimately permit forecasting of the temporal occurrence of failure.
Estimation uncertainty of direct monetary flood damage to buildings
Authors: Merz B. , Kreibich H. , Thieken A. , Schmidtke R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Traditional flood design methods are increasingly supplemented or replaced by risk-oriented methods which are based on comprehensive risk analyses. Besides meteorological, hydrological and hydraulic investigations such analyses require the estimation of flood impacts. Flood impact assessments mainly focus on direct economic losses using damage functions which relate property damage to damage-causing factors. Although the flood damage of a building is influenced by many factors, usually only inundation depth and building use are considered as damage-causing factors. In this paper a data set of approximately 4000 damage records is analysed. Each record represents the direct monetary damage to an inundated building. The data set covers nine flood events in Germany from 1978 to 1994. It is shown that the damage data follow a Lognormal distribution with a large variability, even when stratified according to the building use and to water depth categories. Absolute depth-damage functions which relate the total damage to the water depth are not very helpful in explaining the variability of the damage data, because damage is determined by various parameters besides the water depth. Because of this limitation it has to be expected that flood damage assessments are associated with large uncertainties. It is shown that the uncertainty of damage estimates depends on the number of flooded buildings and on the distribution of building use within the flooded area. The results are exemplified by a damage assessment for a rural area in southwest Germany, for which damage estimates and uncertainty bounds are quantified for a 100-year flood event. The estimates are compared to reported flood damages of a severe flood in 1993. Given the enormous uncertainty of flood damage estimates the refinement of flood damage data collection and modelling are major issues for further empirical and methodological improvements.
Design of a geodetic database and associated tools for monitoring rock-slope movements: the example of the top of Randa rockfall scar
Authors: Jaboyedoff M. , Ornstein P. , Rouiller J.-D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The need for monitoring slope movements increases with the increasing need for new areas to inhabit and new land management requirements. Rock-slope monitoring implies the use of a database, but also the use of other tools to facilitate the analysis of movements. The experience and the philosophy of monitoring the top of the Randa rockfall scar which is sliding down into the valley near Randa village in Switzerland are presented. The database includes data correction tools, display facilities and information about benchmarks. Tools for analysing the movement acceleration and spatial changes and forecasting movement are also presented. Using the database and its tools it was possible to discriminate errors from critical slope movement. This demonstrates the efficiency of these tools in monitoring the Randa scar.
G.I.S. technologies for data collection, management and visualization of large slope instabilities: two applications in the Western Italian Alps
Authors: Giardino M. , Giordan D. , Ambrogio S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Large slope instabilities are gravitational phenomena whose main characteristics are the multi-km2 area extension and the complex geometrical, geomorphological and geomechanical settings. Several studies outlined their importance in spatial and temporal occurrence of natural hazards on wide mountain areas and their possible interaction in human activities. For the study of large slope instability and deep seated slope gravitational deformations in the Susa and Aosta Valleys (Western Italian Alps) a complete multiscale program (spatial and temporal) analysis has been performed, giving contributions to the reconstruction and settings of their possible evolution. A complex geodatabase has been created, including thematic elements from field-data collection (geomorphology, hydrology, lithology, structural geology) and instability events analysis from data archives and remote sensing images. To facilitate the management of a large amount of collected data a G.I.S. (Geographical Information System) has been developed, including two main levels of information: local and regional. Local information is mainly devoted to detailed geothematic mapping of single instability phenomena. Clot Brun case study is presented, where original and derived landslide features have been elaborated through arithmetical and statistical operations, in order to identify different instability zones and to assess displacements and state of activity through-time. Regional information collected for a landslide inventory of Aosta Valley (IFFI project) summarizes historical and remote sensing data, combined with metadata from local analysis, in order to assess spatial and temporal hazards. To avoid problems of data accuracy (quality and positioning) due to different source archives, a semi-automatic system for selection and validation of data has been created, based on their spatial characteristics (buffer analysis and control). G.I.S. technologies have been used to archive, manage and visualize collected data through 2-D and 3-D models of single case studies and regional distribution of large slope instabilities.
IFKIS - a basis for managing avalanche risk in settlements and on roads in Switzerland
Authors: Bründl M. , Etter H.-J. , Steiniger M. , Klingler Ch. , Rhyner J. , Ammann W. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. After the avalanche winter of 1999 in Switzerland, which caused 17 deaths and damage of over CHF 600 mill. in buildings and on roads, the project IFKIS, aimed at improving the basics of organizational measures (closure of roads, evacuation etc.) in avalanche risk management, was initiated. The three main parts of the project were the development of a compulsory checklist for avalanche safety services, a modular education and training course program and an information system for safety services. The information system was developed in order to improve both the information flux between the national centre for avalanche forecasting, the Swiss Federal Institute for Snow and Avalanche Research SLF, and the local safety services on the one hand and the communication between avalanche safety services in the communities on the other hand. The results of this project make a valuable contribution to strengthening organizational measures in avalanche risk management and to closing the gaps, which became apparent during the avalanche winter of 1999. They are not restricted to snow avalanches but can also be adapted for dealing with other natural hazard processes and catastrophes.
Aspects of risk assessment in power-law distributed natural hazards
Authors: Hergarten S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Risk assessment is mainly based on certain scenarios involving an event of a certain size which is thought to be characteristic for the considered type of hazard. However, many natural hazards extend over a wide range of event sizes, and some of them are even free of characteristic scales. An expression for the risk taking into account various event sizes is derived, and its implications on risk assessment for earthquakes, forest fires, landslides, and rockfalls are discussed. Under simple assumptions on the damage as a function of the event size, it turns out that the total risk is governed by either the small number of large events or the majority of small events. The distinction between these two classes depends on both the power-law exponent of the event size distribution and the damage function. For earthquakes, forest fires, and rockfalls, the total risk is mainly constituted by the largest events, while results are non-unique for landslides.
Wavelet maxima curves of surface latent heat flux associated with two recent Greek earthquakes
Authors: Cervone G. , Kafatos M. , Napoletani D. , Singh R. P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Multi sensor data available through remote sensing satellites provide information about changes in the state of the oceans, land and atmosphere. Recent studies have shown anomalous changes in oceans, land, atmospheric and ionospheric parameters prior to earthquakes events. This paper introduces an innovative data mining technique to identify precursory signals associated with earthquakes. The proposed methodology is a multi strategy approach which employs one dimensional wavelet transformations to identify singularities in the data, and an analysis of the continuity of the wavelet maxima in time and space to identify the singularities associated with earthquakes. The proposed methodology has been employed using Surface Latent Heat Flux (SLHF) data to study the earthquakes which occurred on 14 August 2003 and on 1 March 2004 in Greece. A single prominent SLHF anomaly has been found about two weeks prior to each of the earthquakes.
Reliability of regional climate model simulations of extremes and of long-term climate
Authors: Böhm U. , Kücken M. , Hauffe D. , Gerstengarbe F.-W. , Werner P. C. , Flechsig M. , Keuler K. , Block A. , Ahrens W. , Nocke Th.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We present two case studies that demonstrate how a common evaluation methodology can be used to assess the reliability of regional climate model simulations from different fields of research. In Case I, we focused on the agricultural yield loss risk for maize in Northeastern Brazil during a drought linked to an El-Niño event. In Case II, the present-day regional climatic conditions in Europe for a 10-year period are simulated. To comprehensively evaluate the model results for both kinds of investigations, we developed a general methodology. On its basis, we elaborated and implemented modules to assess the quality of model results using both advanced visualization techniques and statistical algorithms. Besides univariate approaches for individual near-surface parameters, we used multivariate statistics to investigate multiple near-surface parameters of interest together. For the latter case, we defined generalized quality measures to quantify the model's accuracy. Furthermore, we elaborated a diagnosis tool applicable for atmospheric variables to assess the model's accuracy in representing the physical processes above the surface under various aspects. By means of this evaluation approach, it could be demonstrated in Case Study I that the accuracy of the applied regional climate model resides at the same level as that we found for another regional model and a global model. Excessive precipitation during the rainy season in coastal regions could be identified as a major contribution leading to this result. In Case Study II, we also identified the accuracy of the investigated mean characteristics for near-surface temperature and precipitation to be comparable to another regional model. In this case, an artificial modulation of the used initial and boundary data during preprocessing could be identified as the major source of error in the simulation. Altogether, the achieved results for the presented investigations indicate the potential of our methodology to be applied as a common test bed to different fields of research in regional climate modeling.