bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Operational Definition of Area-Based Social Indicators
Authors: Visvalingam M
Published: October 2006

On technical and conceptual grounds, ratio measures fall short as social indicators for use in area-based programmes. This paper discusses the requirements of area-based social indicators and examines some value-laden issues which must be operationalised if the signed chi-square representation is to form a viable and effective alternative.
Valuation of the Environmental Impact of Wetland Flood Protection and Drainage Schemes
Authors: Turner R K , Dent D , Hey R D
Published: October 2006

Large areas of the remaining wetlands in the United Kingdom are faced with virtual extinction because of the pressures engendered by high productivity farming practices, reinforced by subsidised land drainage and flood protection schemes as well as by price supports for agricultural produce in the European Economic Community. Unique environmental resources are being put at risk by changing farming methods and in particular by arable conversion schemes. A case study, the Yare Barrier Proposal in Norfolk, is used to analyse and evaluate the environmental impacts of drainage and flood protection schemes on the surrounding wetland ecosystems. An opportunity cost model is used to estimate the costs and benefits involved in this policy decision on preservation versus development. We conclude that the case for the agricultural development of the wetlands made on the grounds of economic efficiency is not a strong one.
An Examination of an Ecological Model of Neighborhood Change, Which Employs a Biased Estimation Technique
Authors: Schwab W A , Miller M K
Published: October 2006

The problems created by multicollinearity when estimating a single equation least squares model are well-known. This problem is particularly troublesome in ecological research because of the heavy reliance of this field on census data and other secondary data sources. This paper explores one solution to the problem of multicollinearity in ecological research—ridge regression. Using census-tract data from Cleveland, Ohio for the years 1960–1970, an ecological model, known as the tipping-point model, of neighborhood change, was evaluated. It was determined that multicollinearity was a problem. To minimize the detrimental effects of multicollinearity and to facilitate structural interpretation, the model was reestimated with the ridge regression technique. The result was a total mean square error that was significantly smaller than the total variance resulting from an ordinary least squares solution. Hence, the estimates of the coefficients produced by the ridge regression were closer, on the average, to the true population parameters than the ordinary least squares estimates.

Results of the ordinary least squares and ridge regression are presented and discussed and the utility of ridge regression in ecological research is evaluated.
Forms of Housing Production: Initial Formulations
Authors: Cardoso A , Short J R
Published: October 2006

The paper introduces the concept of forms of housing production. These are defined as combinations of conditions of production, elements of labour process, and relations of production articulated through a particular constellation of agents (builder, labourer, developer, consumer). The following forms are identified: ‘pure’ capitalist, self-produced, individual contract, institutional contract, and speculative production.
Neighbourhood and Health Effects on Elderly Morale
Authors: Bohland J R , Herbert D T
Published: October 2006

As the elderly comprise an increasing proportion of the urban populations of Western societies, issues affecting their welfare attract greater concern. Theories of gerontology which focus upon the process of ageing highlight the importance of morale and the ways in which it may be related to key events in the life cycle such as retirement, onset of ill-health, or loss of spouse. These ‘personal’ factors are clearly of fundamental importance, but there are also ‘situational’ factors which exert an influence upon the morale of old people. Residential environments and neighbourhoods fall into this latter group of factors. In this paper a simple recursive model is developed which seeks to examine the extent of influence of situational factors upon morale. The model allows direct and indirect influences to be measured and it tests for the interplay of personal and situational factors. Results show that personal competency has a strong influence upon morale, not just directly but also through its impact on other related factors such as spatial mobility. Empirical data used as input to the model also allow an examination of variations in environmental influences upon morale among different social-class groups.
The Folklore of the Perceived Environment in Bihar
Authors: Chapman G P
Published: October 2006

The peasant farmers of Bihar have a collective store of traditional information relating to farming practices and the behaviour of the physical environment. This paper reports on a project undertaken to discover the kind of information they hold, the way in which it is stored, and the way in which it relates to the environment. The differing knowledge of four cultural groups—Bihari, Bengalis, Hos, and Santhalis—is investigated, and particular attention is paid to the time frameworks of their local calendars. The implications of this study for agricultural extension are reviewed.
Scale Effects and the Information Content of Frequency Arrays Obtained by Quadrat Methods
Authors: Thomas R W
Published: October 2006

This paper examines the ways in which information statistics can be used to describe frequency arrays obtained by quadrat analysis of the same point-pattern with different cell sizes. The paper begins by reviewing those aspects of information theory that are pertinent to quadrat analysis, and then a series of results are described which relate the behaviour of the redundancy index to variations in the number of cells used to census the pattern. In particular, it is shown how critical cell sizes correspond to limiting values of the redundancy index, which enables the index value to be interpreted as a pure scale-effect. Last, these methods are illustrated with reference to changing factory-location patterns on Merseyside between 1966 and 1972.
Destination Dependence: A Reevaluation of the Competing-Risk Approach
Authors: Davies R B
Published: October 2006

The test of destination independence proposed by Ginsberg is reexamined. The original derivation of the test requires untestable assumptions about latent failure times. It is shown that these assumptions are unnecessary, although some reservations are expressed as to the utility of the test in social science applications. An alternative formulation is proposed which provides more readily interpretable results. The use of this revised test is illustrated by an application to second home tenure sojourn times.
Analysing Service Equity: Fire Services in Sydney
Authors: Adrian C
Published: October 2006

Fire services represent an important sector in localised urban service provision. The equity of such provision is conceptualised in terms of the institutional setting of supply; the distribution of inherent demand; the distribution of supply units; and spatial differentials in response performance. This conceptual framework, being directly related to the supply/demand process, has far greater power than those adopted in most previous research. Although the present distribution of fire stations in Sydney is relatively dispersed, ‘poorly’ served areas may be found on the urban fringe and in the southwestern sector. With a rapid growth in alarm rates in these areas, a conflict has arisen between the need for centralised services focused on high-demand inner-city areas and the need for dispersed services satisfying minimal service requirements for all.
Optimal Development Strategies in a Labor-Surplus Economy with Increasing Returns: Is Industrialization Desirable at All?
Authors: Miyao T , Nishimura K
Published: October 2006

The authors analyze the problem of optimal development strategies in a labor-surplus economy, where manufacturing production is subject to a convex-concave production function. Our contribution is to provide a rigorous proof of the existence of a critical value of capital such that industrialization is optimal if the initial stock of capital is above the critical value, whereas nonindustrialization is optimal if the initial capital stock is below the critical value.
Rural and Urban Population Changes and the Stages of Economic Development: A Unified Approach
Authors: Miyao T
Published: October 2006

A model is presented which can yield a dynamic path of economic development from very early stages through more advanced stages in an attempt to shed light on what Alonso called the “five bell-shapes” within a unified framework. The model is able to explain not only the occurrence of a downturn in the rural population after the initial phase of population growth both in rural and urban areas, but also the delayed occurrence of such a downturn in many present-day developing countries. The author then focuses the later stages of economic development and explains two alternative courses of urbanization, namely, the reversal process and the continual-growth process, as special cases of the general model; which of the courses occurs depends on the value of the elasticity of urban agglomeration-economies.
Integrated Policy Analysis by Means of Interactive Learning Models
Authors: Nijkamp P , Spronk J
Published: October 2006

In this paper the author makes a plea for interactive multiobjective policy analysis in complex economic-environmental systems. An operational method, interactive multiple-goal programming (IMGP), is described in greater detail followed by a case study for the industrial heartland of Western Europe. Results of various experiments with IMGP are described, and some general lessons from such interactive policy analyses are presented.
The Location of Sewage Treatment Plants on a Continuous Space: Theoretical and Empirical Analyses
Authors: Kitabatake Y , Miyazaki T
Published: October 2006

A theoretical model of the sewage treatment plant location problem is presented, based on the assumptions of a homogeneous space and a homogeneous channel geometry of a river running parallel to a one-dimensional region. The analytical structure of the model is discussed. The model is then applied to the specific case of a suburban region of the Tokyo Metropolitan Region, where both the homogeneity assumptions are dropped. The numerical simulations show clearly how the heterogeneity in population distribution and river characteristics, as well as the trade-off ratio between water quality and least cost expenditure, affects the optimal plant locations.
Office Location in Transition: Observations on Research in Britain and North America
Authors: Daniels P W , Holly B P
Published: October 2006

There have been signs of uncertainty recently about the standing and direction of office location studies. Yet there remains much to be understood about the distinctive contribution of office activities to urban form, development, and structure or to problems of structural change at the regional scale. The scope for further work is demonstrated through a comparison of some recent research in Britain and North America. There are some clear differences in emphasis, approach, and methodology between the two ‘schools’ and there is scope for more comparative work and greater international collaboration in research activity. Office studies in Britain have been dominated by empirical concerns, but some research on behavioural aspects of office location decisionmaking and a model of the office development cycle suggest that things are changing. Nevertheless, applied research continues to be important as illustrated by a sector-specific study of the location and behaviour of business services in some large British cities. The development of theoretical models is a notable feature of recent work by some American economists and two examples are included.
A Model of Public Policy toward Office Relocation
Authors: Clapp J M
Published: October 2006

When an office activity moves voluntarily in response to incentives provided by public policy, there is a presumption that the move benefits the relocating activity. But other activities may have to travel farther for face-to-face contact with the relocating activity; the resulting increases in transportation costs should be included in the system-wide effects of the relocation policy. A numerical example demonstrates that increases in system-wide costs can outweigh the benefits to the relocating activity.

Empirical calibration of the model requires some modification of the contact diaries developed by Thorngren, Törnqvist, and others. Diary information is needed from activities which initiate contact with the relocating activity. Diary information on transportation costs for face-to-face contacts and for the journey to work can be used to conduct simulations of alternative relocation policies.
An Equilibrium Model of Office Location and Contact Patterns
Authors: Tauchen H , Witte A D
Published: October 2006

In this paper, we develop an equilibrium model of office location, which explicitly considers the source of agglomeration economies and which sees firm location and contact patterns as jointly and endogenously determined. We solve the model explicitly for contact-benefit, facility-cost, and transport-cost functions representative of medium-sized US cities. The resulting rent functions are concave rather than convex as they are in most models of industrial and residential location. The source of the concavity is that firms make contacts throughout the central business district (CBD). To determine the role of agglomeration economies associated with interfirm contacts, we alter the contact-benefit function, the transport-cost function and the size of the CBD. We find that agglomeration economies have a strong effect on location and, indeed, are often sufficiently strong to produce counterintuitive results. For example, an increase in transport costs causes a decrease rather than an increase in transport expenses, because in the city, which is now smaller, a firm decreases the number of contacts. Further, the increase in transport costs does not increase the relative attractiveness of the center.
A Simple Theoretical Model of the Office-Development Cycle
Authors: Barras R
Published: October 2006

The author proposes a simple theoretical model of the accelerator type which helps to explain some observed characteristics of the pronounced office-development cycle in Britain. The British economy is currently experiencing its third major postwar cycle, the previous peaks of development activity having occurred in the early 1960s and early 1970s, the latter during the famous ‘property boom’. The author begins with a summary guide to the literature on building cycles, examining the various exogenous factors which have been proposed to explain these cycles and identifying a crucial endogenous causal factor, which is the long production period between new building orders and completions. This delay is incorporated into an accelerator model of the development process, yielding a second-order difference equation which generates cyclical fluctuations around an equilibrium growth path. The behaviour of the model is then tested using typical values of the main parameters, and compared with the results of previous empirical research on the office-development cycle which has focused on the interaction of the user demand, investment demand, and development supply of new building.
Factors Influencing New-Business Formation: A Case Study of Northern Ireland
Authors: Harrison R T , Hart M
Published: October 2006

This paper examines some of the factors which influence the creation of small businesses and the development of entrepreneurship in Northern Ireland. Particular attention is given to the investigation of the macroeconomic constraints on the process of new-business formation, which influence the decision of individuals to establish businesses themselves. Data on company registrations in Northern Ireland over the period 1951–1980 give some support to the proposition that new-business formation is a response to two sets of factors, ‘push’ factors and ‘pull’ factors. Push factors encourage an individual to leave paid employment (or more rarely unemployment) to establish his own business, and it is argued that the threat of unemployment is a significant factor in this decision. Pull factors operate in the opposite manner, making more attractive the opportunities and benefits of self-employment. Of particular interest in this respect is the apparent importance of upturns, or perceived upturns, in economic activity. On the basis of these findings, a number of suggestions for further more detailed research are made.
Experiments in Regionalization of a National Input—Output Table
Authors: Sawyer C H , Miller R E
Published: October 2006

In this paper the authors present results of a series of experiments in which the input—output structure of the State of Washington (as reflected in 1972 survey-based input—output tables) is approximated from similar data for the nation (as given in the 1967 survey-based US tables). Variants of two kinds of nonsurvey approaches are employed. These are purely-nonsurvey methods (including, for example, adjustments according to simple location quotient measures) and partial-survey techniques (such as the RAS method). Comparisons between nonsurvey results and the Washington data are made on the basis both of regional coefficient matrices and of their Leontief inverses. Comparisons are also made with the results of several other studies that have utilized similar nonsurvey approaches. Certain procedures appear promising, especially when used in combination with survey estimates of regional value added and/or exports.
The Structure of Motives for Moving: A Multidimensional Model of Residential Mobility
Authors: Brown J M
Published: October 2006

A three-dimensional conceptual model of residential mobility for owner-occupiers is proposed using the methods of facet theory (after Guttman). Three conceptual dimensions (facets) of buyers' reasons for moving are defined, based on the contribution of job-related motives, family-related motives and housing values. The conceptual model is tested by a multivariate statistical analysis (smallest space analysis) of a national sample of 1052 house purchasers. Facet theory permits the formulation of hypotheses about partitions in an n-dimensional space divided into clearly defined regions such that the model can literally be reconstructed in that space. Thus empirically verified, the model can be used to generate a typology of fourteen distinct mover types, and profiles are presented of their search behaviour and housing outcomes. The methods and findings are discussed in terms of their contribution to and extension of a behavioural approach to residential mobility.
A Multiregional Population-Projection Framework That Incorporates Both Migration and Residential Mobility Streams: Application to Metropolitan City—Suburb Redistribution
Authors: Frey W H
Published: October 2006

In this paper the author introduces a population-projection framework that incorporates interregional migration and intraregional residential mobility streams to project future population sizes both across and within regions in a manner that is consistent with existing migration theory. The author presents a general matrix model of the framework, shows how its parameters can be estimated from fixed-interval census migration data, and discusses how the framework can be employed to ‘update’ population projections when recent, more limited data sets become available. These features of the framework are demonstrated with intrametropolitan central-city-suburb projections for selected US Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas over the period, 1970–2020.
Effects of Neighborhood Grant-Allocations on Trade-Offs among Urban Outcomes. Part 2: Model Formulation
Authors: Nesher A , Schinnar A P
Published: October 2006

A mathematical framework for evaluating substitutions and complementarities among urban outcomes is presented. A solution of a linear-programming problem, entailing the minimization of expenditure overruns above a spatially distributed community development grant, is used to assay the opportunity cost of grant allocations. This is the second essay on the subject developed under the auspices of the HUD Community Development Strategies Evaluation Project sponsored by the US Department of Housing and Urban Development. The first essay appeared in the previous issue of this journal.
On the Geometry of Emergency Service Medical Provision in Cities
Authors: Hyman G M , Mayhew L D
Published: October 2006

The enormity of many cities today poses special problems for authorities supplying emergency medical services. The scale of the emergency system and variations in the operating conditions rule out some of the traditional methods developed to deal with the complexities involved. In cities the provision of services is affected not only by the daily varying locations of the populations at risk, but also by the prevailing traffic and weather conditions that can hinder ambulance access to the site of an incident or to a treatment facility. The controlling authorities of these services nevertheless like to maintain the highest possible levels of service given the available resources. They are interested in knowing which facilities to open and when, what resources and staffing levels are required, and what the long-term and short-term implications of changing operating conditions and of other unforeseen circumstances are on operating standards. In this paper the authors present research into a set of methods that are designed to assist in finding solutions to these problems or, at least, in understanding how to deal with them. The methods are based on the efficiency of movement in cities, particularly the time it takes to access different locations in different traffic conditions, and on the likelihood of incidents occurring at different times of the day. Initial results are presented based on the London area, but the main conclusions are transferable to many other cities of comparable scale. The distinguishing feature of the methods is that they are based on a type of non-Euclidean geometry that arises from the generalized profiles of the average speeds of traffic flow in cities.
Ecological Fallacies and the Analysis of Areal Census Data
Authors: Openshaw S
Published: October 2006

In many countries census data are only reported for areal units and not at the individual level. This custom raises the spectre of ecological fallacy problems. In this paper, a 10% sample census (from the United Kingdom) and individual census data (from Italy) are used to provide an empirical demonstration of the nature and magnitude of these problems. It is concluded that ecological fallacy effects are endemic to areal census data, although their magnitude is perhaps not as large as might have been expected. The principal difficulty is that there is at present no way of predicting in advance the degree of severity likely to be associated with particular variables and particular techniques. Finally, a suggestion is made concerning how the potentially serious practical consequences can be reduced.
Mental Health in the Inner City
Authors: Freeman H L
Published: October 2006

Salford, an urban industrial community that dates from the early nineteenth century, has been used as the population base for extensive epidemiological studies of psychiatric disorder. Population fall, differential migration, and massive redevelopment have had a measurable effect in recorded rates for schizophrenia, but the likely adverse consequences in terms of less severe disorders cannot yet be estimated. Psychiatry may contribute to social planning through an emphasis on the value of continuity and preservation of social networks.
A Sociopsychological Contribution to the Theory of Individual Time-Allocation
Authors: Tonn B E
Published: October 2006

Analysis of individual time-allocation will continue to increase as researchers link time-allocation behavior with transportation and energy demand, urban design, family organization, and other topics. Past research has not evolved a comprehensive theory of individual time-allocation. In this paper the author offers a series of social-psychological contributions to the development of a theory of individual time-allocation designed to provide a framework upon which to base time-allocation research.

This paper is divided into four sections. In the first section are outlined three omniprevalent concerns which motivate human behavior. In the second section a three-part strategy is suggested which individuals utilize in the development of purposeful behavior. In the third section, six general exogenous factors which may affect time allocation are listed. Last, it is hypothesized that individuals synthesize concerns, strategy, and factors into the creation of an activity-based behavioral schedule.
A Modified Composite Cost Measure for Probabilistic Choice Modeling
Authors: Fisk C S , Boyce D E
Published: October 2006

A modified composite cost function is proposed which overcomes the negativity problem associated with Williams's measure. Also some relationships between the random utility and entropy-maximization approaches to model formulation are explored.
Space and Society in Northern Ireland: The Geography of Journey to Work
Authors: Hoare A G
Published: October 2006

The ‘causal’ role of geographical location can be overplayed in spatial analysis. In Northern Ireland the distribution of the dominant religious groups may be at least as important. Two models to explain social—economic patterns in this region are suggested, one based on religious groups and one upon location, and attempts are made to examine their separate influence in the geography of journey-to-work flows. The results suggest that location is the more important factor behind patterns at the inter-local-authority scale of analysis chosen.
The Impact of Falling School-Rolls on the Assignment of Primary Schoolchildren to Secondary Schools in Manchester, 1980–1985
Authors: Thomas R W , Robson B T
Published: October 2006

The paper examines the effects of falling rolls in Manchester primary schools both on the catchments and on the intake of the secondary schools in the city during the period 1980–1985. Various formulations of the transportation model in linear programming are used to evaluate the scheme by the Manchester Education Authority for linking primary schools to particular secondary schools. A second analysis adopts similar methods to evaluate recent proposals by the Authority to reduce both the number and the size of secondary schools in the city. It is found that many of the distance inefficiencies present in the Authority's allocation system occur because its mechanisms top-up the intakes of suburban schools at the expense of school intakes in the inner city.
Spatial Effects on Voting Power in Representative Democracies
Authors: Shelley F M
Published: October 2006

In representative democracies, social choice requires the election of representatives to a legislature, and then the enactment of legislation by its members. In this paper, numerical simulation is used to investigate the extent to which the relative voting power of representatives in a legislature is affected by locational considerations. Results of the simulation indicate that voting power tends to decrease when supporters of one of two competing political parties are more concentrated spatially. The results are consistent with empirical evidence concerning electoral bias accruing against parties whose supporters are concentrated.
Spatial Perspectives on Technological Changes in the Banking Sector of the United Kingdom
Authors: Marshall J N , Bachtler J F
Published: October 2006

In this paper the impact on employment of technological changes in the banking sector is examined. A range of technologies are described which utilise computer, electronic, and telecommunications equipment to produce, store, obtain, and transfer information. Economic pressures on the banks to use the equipment are considered. The influence of the organisation of banking institutions on the introduction of technology is outlined. It is argued that technological change seems unlikely in the short term to be associated with a considerable decline in employment in the banking sector, but that there could be important changes in the nature and location of work. The introduction of technology appeared initially to support the concentration of employment in the main centres of banking activity. However, present evidence and likely future trends indicate that some dispersal of banking activities from London and the South East of the country is possible.
Spatial Flows and Spatial Patterns
Authors: Fotheringham A S
Published: October 2006

The misspecification of gravity spatial interaction models has recently been described by the author. The bias in parameter estimates that results from such misspecification appears to produce the ‘map pattern effect’ or ‘spatial structure bias’ in estimated distance-decay parameters. A further aspect of the misspecification bias in gravity parameter estimates is explored here. The severity of the bias is shown to vary in a predictable manner with variations in spatial structure. In particular, the bias is shown to be dependent upon the pattern of accessibility that exists within a spatial system. The relevant aspects of this pattern are discussed for intraurban and interurban (or interregional) flow matrices. It is shown that from an examination of the spatial structure of centres in a spatial system it is possible, a priori, to identify whether significant bias will arise in the calibration of a gravity model. Certain configurations of centres are shown theoretically to produce maximal bias. The author thus answers the question, “why do gravity parameter estimates appear to be biased in some systems but not in others?”
A Partial Hierarchical Regionalization of 3140 US Counties on the Basis of 1965–1970 Intercounty Migration
Authors: Slater P B
Published: October 2006

In a preliminary stage of a complete hierarchical regionalization, a limited number of digraphs are generated by applying thresholds to a doubly standardized 1965–1970 US intercounty migration table. The strong components—sets of mutually reachable vertices—of each digraph are determined by an efficient algorithm. The results indicate that the broadest migration bases are possessed by a pair of Southeastern Florida counties (Dade and Broward); a pair of Chicago area counties (Cook and Du Page); the District of Columbia; and Pierce County, WA, which has a strong concentration of military installations. Several two-county Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas; the four counties of Hawaii; and most of Connecticut; as well as most of Rhode Island are found to function as migration regions. Though no contiguity constraints are imposed, the clusters—especially relatively small ones—are, as a strong rule, connected. A null hypothesis that these clusters are random can, using asymptotic approximations in this 3140-unit analysis, be rejected. Under an assumption of symmetric linkages, a systematic tendency for counties to have broad migration bases is exhibited.
Technological Change and Urban Form
Authors: Brotchie J F
Published: October 2006

In this paper the author previews a current international study of impacts of technological change on urban activities and interactions, and hence on urban built form. He considers various trends and factors of technological change, and the mechanisms through which they are influencing urban form. The nature of this impact is also discussed. The author introduces two basic measures of urban form and interaction, and maps urban activities and interactions onto this two-dimensional space. Some of the broader impacts of technological change may then be considered as movements in this space. Information systems for monitoring the effects of technological change, for quantitative analysis of these impacts, and for prediction of further impacts of change are also discussed. Last, the implications for planning are considered. One possible model for use at various levels in this study is outlined in an appendix.
On the Duality of Opportunity and Price in a Multisectoral Model of an Urban Housing Market
Authors: Emmi P C
Published: October 2006

Previously unrecognized relationships between housing opportunities, residential mobility, and housing prices are identified within a multisectoral model of vacancy transfers within a local housing market. The relationships are identified by presenting the vacancy-transfer model as a simple linear program. The primal program seeks a vector of vacancy transfers which minimizes the volume of new stock additions among market sectors required to satisfy a prespecified vector of primary vacancy demand. The dual program seeks a vector of shadow housing-prices which maximizes the value of units absorbed by primary demand while insuring that quasi-rents are driven to zero. Thus, a duality between vacancy transfers and housing price is identified, and the role of new stock development costs in housing price determination is defined.
The Decline of the US Economy: A Perspective from Mathematical Ecology
Authors: Dendrinos D S
Published: October 2006

Nations grow and decline as the result of driving forces underlying the comparative advantage differentials that they enjoy within a community of nations. The US economy, driven by comparative advantages enjoyed in the manufacturing sector, reached in the early 1950s a peak in its share of the world population. In comparison to the market economies of the world (WMEs) the United States of America reached a peak in the ratio of its per-capita gross domestic product to that of the WMEs in around 1920 and a peak in its share of the WMEs population around 1950. On all three counts the United States of America is currently continuously declining. It is hypothesized that this decline is caused by the gradual shift in the US economy from manufacturing to services and that it is of a rather long-term nature. The author presents an economic-ecological based model of the dynamic behavior of the US economy in reference to the WMEs. Empirical evidence, covering the period 1920–1980 is used to test a Volterra-Lotka type model. Some results are discussed in reference to the parameter values, together with their implications in projecting the future course of the US economy within the community of market economies.
Decision Theory, Strict Ranking of Probabilities, and Statistical Dominance
Authors: Kmietowicz Z W , Pearman A D
Published: October 2006

In this paper the authors extend Fishburn's analysis of statistical dominance of one strategy by another to the case of strict ranking of probabilities of states of nature. Conditions ensuring strict dominance are derived, and it is shown that Fishburn's results for weak ranking of probabilities are a special case of the more general results presented here. Conditions for weak dominance, a criterion proposed elsewhere by the authors, are also derived. The latter results are particularly useful when strict dominance cannot be established. This happens frequently in practice. Two numerical examples, one concerned with employment planning and the other with transport investment, illustrate possible areas of application of this approach to decisionmaking and show the ease with which the calculations can be made.
Discount Factors for Public Sector Investment Projects Using the Sum of Discounted Consumption Flows—Estimates for the United Kingdom
Authors: Kula E
Published: October 2006

In this article a model to estimate a discount factor matrix is derived for discount rates between 1% and 15% for the United Kingdom on the basis of a public-sector project evaluation method known as the sum of discounted consumption flows. These factors can readily be used by project analysts working on United Kingdom projects, especially those in which costs and benefits extend over many years.
Retail Services and the Role of the State: Convenience Stores and the Planning Appeals Board in Melbourne
Authors: Maher C , Mercer D
Published: October 2006

Studies of urban and regional phenomena are increasingly coming to recognize the role of the state in many planning processes and outcomes. In this paper we examine the planning process in Melbourne with respect to a recent retailing innovation in Australia, that of drive-in convenience stores. Resistance to the establishment of such stores, particularly their location in residential areas, has come both from residents and from local authorities charged with the administration of the Melbourne Metropolitan Planning Scheme. The conflicts have been adjudicated through a planning appeals body, the Victorian Planning Appeals Board. The nature of constraints placed on the interpretation of the planning scheme by the Appeals Board through Supreme Court decisions, and through the manner of operation of the Appeals Board itself, has meant that decisions have predominantly favoured the developers. Thus structure at the lower levels of the retail hierarchy is altering quite markedly, not as a result of conscious planning decisions, but as a result of the mechanisms to resolve conflict.
The Sum of Discounted Consumption Flows Method: Equity with Efficiency?
Authors: Price C
Published: October 2006

Kula's sum of discounted consumption flows method of investment appraisal may produce perplexing results in application; in some cases it does not produce the intended intergenerational equity. A modification to avoid these problems leads to inefficient allocation of consumption over time, without eliminating inequity. Examination of the basis of discounting suggests that, insofar as it is justifiable, it should be applied conventionally to reflect diminishing marginal utility of consumption as in the net present value criterion.
Application of a Mortality Model to Subsidized Housing
Authors: Gleeson M E
Published: October 2006

New construction and rehabilitation of subsidized housing units are directly compared against the common objective of extending the useful life of the inventory. A model is developed and applied to the case of public housing in the United States of America. Results suggest that rehabilitation is not justified if costs exceed 5–10% of new construction costs. The article concludes with a discussion of limitations of the model and of prospects for further development.
Interpolation of Transition Matrices by the Variable Power Method
Authors: Liaw K-L
Published: October 2006

In this paper the author introduces the variable power method that can be used to interpolate age-specific transition matrices of a quinquennial multiregional model of population change into those of an annual model. Beside being able to maintain consistency and non-negativity, this method is better than the well-known fifth-root method, because the former allows the mortality and mobility levels to change with age, whereas the latter does not.

The variable power method is applied to the biregional model of Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area and the rest of Canada based on the 1971–1976 data. The empirical result suggests that the method may work equally well for multiregional models of other population systems.
Private Rental Housing in Australia
Authors: Paris C
Published: October 2006

This paper is in five parts. In section 1, the significance of private rental housing in Australia is outlined, and contemporary Australian issues are related to overseas developments and local concerns during the 1960s and 1970s. In section 2, some problems involved in defining the private rental sector are examined, the focus being on different types of landlords. In section 3, trends, issues, and problems are discussed, this involving a detailed examination both of the extent to which availability of dwellings has changed and of the growing problem of affordability which particularly affects poor tenants. In section 4, government policies during the 1970s are assessed, and it is argued that, in combination with market processes, these exacerbated the problems faced by poor tenants. In the concluding section, some of the issues are redefined, and it is argued that new policies in themselves are less important than a greater commitment to equity.
Some Supply and Demand Considerations in Urban Spatial Interaction Models
Authors: Roy J R , Brotchie J F
Published: October 2006

Although attempts have been made recently to include supply considerations in urban spatial interaction models, these efforts have not been comprehensive. In this paper, demand-type models are first examined. Then it is demonstrated how spatial consumption patterns can be determined when potential supply exceeds actual demand or vice versa. In addition, supply and demand imbalances are treated simultaneously. Last, a model for handling steady state supply–demand equilibrium is developed, which includes the effects of delays between customers entering the housing or land markets and finally making a choice. The case of uniform steady state supply is distinguished from that where new supply occurs at discrete intervals.
Commodification and Housing: Emerging Issues and Contradictions
Authors: Forrest R , Williams P
Published: October 2006

In this paper, we attempt to relate debates around the commodification process, that is, the ways in which commodity relations develop and are expressed both in daily life and in the organisation of society, with respect to housing provision. We begin with a brief review of the underlying theoretical argument and then proceed to examine a number of housing-related spheres. We conclude that, although the concept of commodification suffers from overly economistic applications, an understanding of this process provides an important element in explaining changing social relations.
Extensions of the k-Elliptic Optimization Approach and a Computer Method for Location Decision
Authors: Kulshrestha D K , Sag T W
Published: October 2006

Some closely related location problems subject to given constraints are considered. With the aid of the k-elliptic optimization approach, a minimax problem is solved. This approach is further developed with a view to solving location problems involving nonconvex level surfaces. Last, a computer method for constructing level curves of a certain class of objective functions is described.
Stochastic Panel-Data Models of Urban Shopping Behaviour: 3. The Interaction of Store Choice and Brand Choice
Authors: Wrigley N , Dunn R
Published: October 2006

In this paper, the first consideration of the interaction of the processes of store choice and brand choice at the level of individual stores is presented. Empirical results derived from a recently conducted spatially disaggregate consumer-panel survey in Cardiff, the United Kingdom, are reported. These results suggest that store loyalty and brand loyalty are both extremely low. On this basis it is argued that store and brand choice might profitably be regarded as a nested choice process, with store choice preceding brand choice. The application of the Dirichlet model to patterns of multibrand purchasing within individual stores is then discussed.
The Yule—Simon Model in its Limiting Case as a Pure Migration Process
Authors: Vining D R
Published: October 2006

In this paper the author offers an analytical solution to a problem first raised in 1973, namely, what is the equilibrium distribution of city sizes implied by the Yule–Simon model, when the total population of the urban system in question is stationary? Under the assumption that in-migration and out-migration rates are uncorrelated with city sizes, it is shown that Fisher's log-series distribution is that distribution. Fisher's log-series distribution yields a much less concentrated size distribution than does the Yule distribution, which is the equilibrium distribution associated with a pure growth process. Thus, we might expect a lower level of concentration or city size inequality when the overall urban system is stationary than when it is growing.
A Generalized Procedure for Comparing Models of Spatial Choice
Authors: Halperin W C , Richardson G D , Gale N , Costanzo C M
Published: October 2006

A major concern of geographers has been the explanation and prediction of spatial choice behavior. Several discrete choice models have been developed which attempt to account for the use of different transport routes, modes, shopping centers, and so on. One of the fundamental issues associated with these models is the problem of model specification; furthermore, each type of model can potentially give disparate results for the same spatial choice situation. In this paper the models and their characteristics are summarized, and a generalized method for comparing the results yielded by alternative model specifications, or results obtained from different model formulations, are presented. The procedure is an application of recent developments in heuristic methods for comparing related matrices.
The Structure of Specialization and Trade in the Space Economy
Authors: Puu T
Published: October 2006

A spatially extended production and exchange economy is considered. It is first established that specialization and trade arise even in the absence of increasing returns, comparative advantages, or immobile resources. Next, it is demonstrated that all trade in a multicommodity economy is transported along the same trajectories, which are determined by the land-rent gradient. Finally, applying the concept of structural stability to the land-rent gradient field, it is shown that the configuration of central places and their surrounding hinterlands must form a quadratic, not a hexagonal, pattern, where the specialization zones around each central place locally have von Thünen character.
Trends of Spatial Reorganization of Growth in Urban Fields in the Eastern United States, 1962–1978
Authors: Krakover S
Published: October 2006

The aim of this study is to formulate a model of the spatial reorganization of growth in urban fields. The model is based on a synthesis of factors associated with the intrametropolitan location theory, the central place theory, and the core–periphery conceptualization. The model constructed provides a means of measuring spread and backwash trends related to the spatial reorganization of growth. Data on employment in the retail trade are applied to a sample of thirty-four urban fields and the results are tested against the suggested model.
A New Derivation of the Intervening Opportunities Model
Authors: Mazurkiewicz L
Published: October 2006

In this paper a new derivation of the intervening opportunities model is proposed that uses Bose–Einstein statistics.
Census-Based Information Systems for Ethnic Groups: A Study of Leeds and Bradford
Authors: Rees P H , Birkin M
Published: October 2006

In this paper are explored the problems involved in using Census data as a guide to the evolving ethnic geography of British cities. The relationship between the concept of ethnicity and Census questions on place of birth is traced. The country-of-birth statistics for Small Areas from the 1971 and 1981 Censuses are employed in an attempt to ascertain the influence of technical specifications on the measurement of the residential segregation of ethnic groups in order to distinguish real differences from apparent ones. The attempt is not fully successful, but it does provide clear pointers on how to proceed further in research on the ethnic spatial mosaics that our cities now are.