bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A Catboost-based Model for Intensity Detection of Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific Based on Satellite Cloud Images
Authors: Zhong Wei , He Hongrang , Wang Shilin , Sun Yuan , Yao Yao
Published: March 2024

A Catboost-based intelligent tropical cyclone (TC) intensity-detecting model is built to quantify the intensity of TCs over the Western North Pacific (WNP) with the cloud-top brightness temperature (CTBT) data of Fengyun-2F (FY-2F) and Fengyun-2G (FY-2G) and the best-track data of the China Meteorological Administration (CMA-BST) in recent years (2015-2018). Catboost-based model is featured with the greedy strategy of combination, the ordering principle in optimizing the possible gradient bias and prediction shift problems, and the oblivious tree in fast scoring. Compared with the previous studies based on the pure convolutional neural network (CNN) models, the Catboost-based model exhibits better skills in detecting TC intensity with the root mean square error (RMSE) of 3.74 m s-1. Besides of the three mentioned model features, there are also two reasons on model design. On one hand, the Catboost-based model uses the method of introducing prior physical factors (e.g., the structure and shape of the cloud, deep convections and background fields) into its training process, on the other hand, the Catboost-based model expands the dataset size from 2342 to 13471 samples by hourly interpolation of the original dataset. Furthermore, this paper investigates the errors of the model in detecting different categories of TC intensity. The results show that the deep learning-based TC intensity-detecting model proposed in this paper has systematic biases, namely, overestimation (underestimation) of intensities in TC which are weaker (stronger) than typhoon level, and the errors of the model in detecting weaker (stronger) TCs are smaller (larger). This implies that more factors than the CTBT should be included to further reduce the errors in detecting strong TCs.
Coupling of stratospheric aerosol and chemistry in IFS-COMPO: use of online aerosol information in the stratospheric heterogeneous chemistry
Authors: Bingen Christine , Rémy Samuel , Chabrillat Simon , Minganti Daniele , Errera Quentin , Huijnen Vincent , Metzger Swen , Williams Jason , Flemming Johannes
Published: March 2024

ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System, extended with modules for atmospheric composition (IFS-COMPO) is used to provide global forecasts and analyses of the atmospheric composition in the framework of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). In the last years intensive work has been dedicated to an improved representation of stratospheric composition in IFS-COMPO. Progresses concern both chemistry through the implementation and use of BASCOE in IFS-COMPO since cycle 48R1, and the extension of IFS-AER to also represent stratospheric sulfate and the associated processes, planned for cycle 49R1. In cycle 49R1, IFS-COMPO will have the capacity to forecast different aerosol parameters of importance for the stratospheric heterogeneous chemistry, such as the surface area density (SAD).The BASCOE module considers full stratospheric chemistry including heterogeneous reactions on the surfaces of polar stratospheric clouds (PSC) that control the extent and depth of ozone depletion events. To date BASCOE makes use of a combination of fixed information (particle number concentration, modal radius and the standard deviation of the aerosol particle size distribution), using a prescribed monthly SAD dataset to describe the aerosol contribution to stratospheric heterogeneous chemical processes. Here we present a further coupling of IFS-AER with BASCOE whereby online aerosol information from IFS-AER is used as an input to the BASCOE heterogeneous chemistry routines.Two possible coupling mechanisms have been implemented and tested for different test cases representative for high volcanic load (Pinatubo period), moderate volcanic load (2008-2009 period), and low, “background” aerosol load (1997-1998 period). Making use of different reference datasets like GloSSAC (for aerosols) and the BRAM-MLS reanalysis (for ozone and ozone-depleting chemical species), we evaluate the impact of these new coupling mechanisms between IFS-AER and BASCOE on aerosol transport and microphysics during the considered periods, and on simulated stratospheric atmospheric composition, focusing on several ozone-depletion events (“ozone holes”) in both Antarctic and Arctic winter.
How does reservoir-regulation impact hydrological extremes in the Alps?
Authors: Götte Jonas , Zappa Massimiliano , Brunner Manuela
Published: March 2024

Low-flows and floods cannot be viewed as purely natural phenomena since theiroccurrence and characteristics are influenced by water storage and regulation.Reservoir-regulation has strong impacts on flow seasonality and can intensifyor attenuate hydrological extremes and change their duration. It is yet hardlyquantified how reservoir regulation affects low- and high flows in the Alps, wheremost reservoirs are operated for hydropower production. We need a better un-derstanding of the effect of reservoir-regulation on hydrological extreme eventsin order to assess the readiness of current regulation schemes for the future.However, the analysis of river flow and estimation of hydrological extremes ischallenging in regulated catchments, particularly in large-samples studies, wheredetailed information about reservoir-regulation is missing.In this study, we analyse how reservoir-regulation has changed the magni-tude and frequency of hydrological extreme events in the European Alps. To doso, we have compiled a dataset of discharge stations and reservoirs which in-cludes reservoir characteristics such as the first year of operation or the storagecapacity. With this information, we distinguish between discharge time seriesbefore and after reservoir construction for about 70 catchments in the EuropeanAlps and calculate a normalized reservoir storage capacity for each catchment.Then, we calculate flood return periods based on annual maxima dischargesand a generalized extreme value distribution and the minimum 7 day movingaverage runoff (MAM7) for each time series. We compare flood and low-flowcharacteristics before and after reservoir construction for each catchment to as-sess the influence of reservoir-regulation on hydrologic extremes. Furthermore,we analyse changes in the seasonality of hydrological extremes and evaluate howit is affected by seasonal reservoir-regulation schemes.Our preliminary results show that reservoirs affect both, low-flows and floods.Annual low-flows have mostly increased since reservoir-construction, while theirvariability has decreased. Annual maximum flows with low return periods (be-low 10-years) have mostly decreased after reservoir-construction with catch-ments with a larger normalized storage capacity showing a stronger effect ofreducing extreme flows. Consequently, we conclude that reservoirs operated forhydropower production mostly have an alleviating effect on both low-flows andfloods.
Exploring the feasibility of detecting seismically-generated infrasound waves on Venus using balloon platforms
Authors: Näsholm Sven Peter , Brissaud Quentin , Solberg Celine Marie , Froment Marouchka
Published: March 2024

Seismic waves are a primary source of information for our understanding of Earth's internal structure and they provide important constraints on subsurface seismic-velocity properties. However, traditional inversion methods cannot be implemented in regions of limited seismic-station coverage, in particular on Venus due to its harsh surface conditions but also in remote Earth regions. This lack of seismic data greatly limits our understanding of Venus’ origin and evolution and Earth’s subsurface. A window of opportunity is offered by the mechanical coupling between the ground and its atmosphere, which enables the seismic energy to be transmitted into the atmosphere as low-frequency acoustic waves carrying information about the seismic source and the subsurface properties. While infrasound is traditionally recorded at ground-based stations, which suffers from the same in-situ deployment limitations as seismic stations, recent studies have demonstrated that balloon platforms can be used to monitor seismic activity from the atmosphere at a low operational cost. Balloon-borne seismology is a new dynamic field and this might be the only viable approach to investigate Venus’ interior. However, inversion methods for balloon-borne infrasound data are not well developed and the coupling between seismic and acoustic waves in realistic media is not fully understood. In this contribution, we will explore the feasibility of detecting seismically-generated infrasound waves on Venus and assess their potential for subsurface velocity inversions through full-waveform numerical simulations.
Quantifying water security using hyperresolution hydrological modelling on top of an Open Data Cube (ODC)
Authors: Patino Velasquez Luis Felipe , Lewis Dr. Elizabeth , Mills Prof. Jon , Birkinshaw Dr. Stephen
Published: March 2024

For many areas across the globe physically-based hydrological models have a fundamental role helping devise a comprehensive and robust plan for future climate change adaption and preparedness informing water management and flood initiatives. Now that the advances in satellite and sensor technology coupled with the development of cloud computing have enable the advancement of hydrology as a data-intensive science, there is a considerable impetus and interest in future research and approaches in the use of these emerging technologies to develop new insights that contribute to fundamental aspects of the hydrological sciences. Whilst increasing volumes of Earth Observation (EO) data couple with advances in cloud computing have enable the enhancement of hydrological modelling, one of the remaining challenges is ensuring a seamless data pipeline to the final hydrological prediction. As a result, this poses a significant set of questions in the use of EO data for hydrology. The current research is situated at the junction of three areas: hydrological physical modelling, satellite EO data and the implementation of the Earth Observation Data Cube (EODC) paradigma. This presentation will outline the development and use of a open source modelling workflow integrating analysis ready data (ARD) through the implementation of the Open Data Cube (ODC) data exploitation architecture with a physically-based, spatially-distributed hydrological model (SHETRAN), as glimpse into the relevance of EO data cube solutions in lowering the technology and EO data barriers. Thus, enabling users to harnes existent open source EO datasets and software at minimum cost and effort with the objective to enable a more open and reproducible hydrological science.
The case of the missing ionosphere: Investigating the ionospheric hole following the 2022 Tonga volcanic eruption
Authors: Gasque Claire , Harding Brian , Immel Thomas , Wu Yen-Jung , Triplett Colin
Published: March 2024

Following the eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (hereafter called ‘Tonga’) volcano just before local sunset on 15 January 2022, satellite data reveals the formation of a large-scale plasma depletion surrounding the region. This depletion persisted for roughly 14 hours, until local sunrise resumed plasma production. By combining in-situ and remote satellite observations, we seek to characterize the depletion's magnitude, spatial scale, and temporal evolution in the hours following the eruption. We will compare this to observations of ionospheric holes following previous impulsive lower atmospheric events, such as the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. Finally, we will investigate the dominant mechanism for locally depleting the plasma following this event, considering field-aligned ion drag, cross B transport due to electric fields arising from dynamo or other effects, and changing recombination rates. We aim ultimately to better understand the coupling between the lower atmosphere and ionosphere/thermosphere system following impulsive events such as this eruption. 
Sensitivity Experiments of a Mountain-Induced Gravity Wave Drag Parameterizations for Global Weather Forecasting
Authors: Hong Songyou , Bao Jian-Wen , Michelson Sara , Grell Evelyn , Toy Mike , Olson Joe , Yang Fanglin
Published: March 2024

The lower tropospheric enhanced gravity wave drag (GWD) parameterization has been operational in Global Forecast System (GFS) since late 1990s. The scheme is based on Kim and Arakawa and further revised with the addition of flow blocking (Kim and Doyle). For UFSR2O project, there have been collaborative efforts to improve the GWD parameterization by revising the mountain induced GWD. Revisions include the updates in GWD and flow blocking (Choi and Hong), and turbulent orography form drag of Beljaars et al. Sensitivity experiments are performed to investigate the importance of partitioning GWD and flow blocking in the skill of medium-range forecasts. Alternative approach for TOFD (Richter et al.) is tested. Importance of the representation of sub-grid orography statistics is also examined. 
The association between tropical sea surface temperature variability and sentinel reporting of travel-related dengue 
Authors: Dafka Stella , Libman Michael , Hamer Davidson H. , Rocklöv Joacim , Huits Ralph
Published: March 2024

Oceanic-atmospheric interactions play a crucial role in the modulation of monsoon rainfall. This is the first study that directly investigates the impact of tropical sea surface temperature (SST) variability on the frequency of sentinel reporting of travel-related dengue from the Geosentinel global emerging infectious disease surveillance network, by using the latest climate reanalysis ERA-5 produced by the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, for the period 2007 to 2019. More specifically, we explore lag structures and the associated spatial correlation patterns between travel-related dengue cases, SSTs, and total precipitation over the tropics. We found that the Indo-Pacific and Atlantic Ocean SSTs have a remote influence on dengue risk in global regions that exhibit distinct monsoon characteristics. The coupling between SST variations and rainfall is an important driver of travel-related dengue cases and could act as an early warning signal for outbreak preparedness and travel medicine preventive advice. Finally, our findings highlight the need to better understand the large-scale and local circulation response to changes in the pattern of tropical ocean warming, to be able to better predict extreme events such as droughts and floods and devise adaptation measures against dengue outbreaks.
Future proglacial lake evolution and outburst flood hazards in south Iceland
Authors: Wells Greta , Sæmundsson Þorsteinn , Pálsson Finnur , Magnússon Eyjólfur , Aðalgeirsdóttir Guðfinna , Guðmundsson Snævarr
Published: March 2024

Arctic regions are warming at more than double the global average rate, causing significant changes in cryospheric and hydrologic patterns. As glaciers retreat, meltwater can accumulate in expanding proglacial lakes, which often form in overdeepened basins with large storage capacities and steep valley walls that are prone to paraglacial slope failures. If a mass movement event such as a rockfall or landslide enters the lake, the water can drain in a glacial outburst flood, significantly modifying the landscape. Moreover, many lakes are upstream of infrastructure, communities, and tourism sites, resulting in a high potential societal impact in the event of a flood. This process is a well-documented trigger of floods in glacial regions across the world, but it remains an emerging and understudied hazard in Iceland.This study investigates past and future proglacial lake evolution and evaluates mass movement-triggered outburst flood risk at two sites in south Iceland. We present: 1) updated maps of lake bathymetry and subglacial topography derived from multibeam sonar and radio-echo sounding surveys, respectively; 2) past lake volume changes and projected future lake extent and volume; and 3) potential slope failure source areas and scenarios of mass movement-triggered outburst floods. These results lay the foundation for future work on flood modeling and hazard planning to mitigate impacts on communities and infrastructure. This project also serves as an excellent pilot study for this emerging hazard in Iceland and has significant potential for application to proglacial lakes in other Arctic and alpine regions.  
The transient and species-specific microbiome of radiation fog water
Authors: Garcia-Pichel Ferran , Cao Thi Thuong Thuong , Herckes Pierre , Straub Derek
Published: March 2024

We used sampling of quasi-stagnant radiation fogs in Central Pennsylvania during two years to study the dynamics and microbiology of bacterial assemblages in fog droplets. These microbiomes contain concentrations of bacteria orders of magnitude higher than present in concurrent interstitial aerosols, their concentration depending positively, and unlike chemical solutes, on the fog’s liquid water content and temperature, speaking for the role of in situ growth. Fog water microbiomes are recruited from locally available aerosol bacteria, they are compositionally well-differentiated, and their bacteria display differential cellular traits consistent with an actively growing assemblage. Phylogenetic analyses of bacteria enriched in the droplets suggest that C1-volatile metabolizing heterotrophs constitute the trophic basis of these dynamics. However, major loss factors (wet deposition) export much of the net gains, leaving measurable but only subtle legacies in the aerobiome upon fog dissipation.   
Children disproportionally exposed to attributable heatwaves at low-latitude low-income countries
Authors: Pietroiusti Rosa , Fischer Erich , Stuart-Smith Rupert , Harrington Luke , Grant Luke , Savaresi Annalisa , Adelman Sam , Thiery Wim
Published: March 2024

Heatwaves are increasing in frequency, intensity, and duration, and represent the category of extreme event that is most easily attributable to anthropogenic warming. Yet how the spatiotemporal patterns of attribution outcomes link to population dynamics and demographic patterns is still poorly understood. Here we investigate whether children and young people are already being affected by a disproportionately greater number of attributable heat extremes, especially in the Global South. Using observations, reanalysis, and simulations of temperature changes available through the ISIMIP3b and CMIP6 projects, in combination with demographic data, we will investigate whether temperature extremes emerge more clearly and consistently from the noise across low-income countries in lower latitudes, which have some of the youngest populations. Our anticipated findings could have implications for children and young people seeking redress from climate harms, for example through climate lawsuits.
Reinforcing fast and slow carbon responses to atmospheric events in the subpolar North Atlantic 
Authors: Williams Richard , Khatri Hemant
Published: March 2024

Thermal variability in the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean may be understood in terms of opposing fast and slow responses to atmospheric events, such as involving the response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). What is unclear is the associated ocean carbon response to atmospheric events, and how that response differs from the thermal response? Here, we diagnose the output from a full Earth system model, UKESM1 piControl simulation integrated over 1100 years, and analyse the transient response to a composite NAO event, derived from combining 270 NAO+ and 246 NAO- individual events. The carbon response is then separated into a fast and slow response to the onset of a single NAO event. During a NAO+ event, there is an initial local response extending over the first one to two years involving anomalous surface cooling and air-sea uptake of carbon in the subpolar gyre. Consequently, there is a reduction in heat storage and an increase in ocean dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), together with enhanced mixed-layer entrainment of nutrients leading to an increase in biological export of carbon. There is then a delayed response extending for a further 10 years, involving an influx of warm and salty waters through ocean advection, which also carries an increase in both alkalinity and dissolved inorganic carbon. Hence, the ocean thermal and carbon responses  involve  a combination of fast, local responses to atmospheric  forcing (involving air-sea exchange, entrainment and biological export) plus a slow, far-field response to prior atmospheric events (involving ocean redistribution of heat, salt, alkalinity and carbon together with continued air-sea exchange). The thermal and carbon responses differ in that the thermal response involves opposing signs in the fast and slow contributions, while the carbon response involves reinforcing fast and slow contributions. This asymmetry is primarily due to opposing signs in the fast contributions with surface cooling leading to a reduction in heat storage, but an increase in carbon storage. Hence, the ocean memory of an atmospheric event is greater for carbon than for heat. 
Present and future importance of protected areas as carbon sinks and storages in Finland
Authors: Forsius Martin , Junttila Virpi , Kujala Heini , Savolahti Mikko , Schulz Torsti
Published: March 2024

The EU aims at reaching carbon neutrality by 2050 and Finland by 2035. Net negative greenhouse gas emissions are needed to comply with the targets of the Paris climate agreement. We integrated results of three spatially distributed model systems (FRES, PREBAS, Zonation) to evaluate the potential to reach this goal at both national and regional scale in Finland, by simultaneously considering protection targets of the EU biodiversity strategy. Modelling of both anthropogenic emissions and forestry measures were carried out, and forested areas important for biodiversity protection were identified based on spatial prioritization. We used scenarios until 2050 based on mitigation measures of the national climate and energy strategy, forestry policies and predicted climate change, and evaluated how implementation of these scenarios would affect greenhouse gas fluxes, carbon storages, and the possibility to reach the carbon neutrality target. Potential new forested areas for biodiversity protection according to the EU 10% strict protection target provided a significant carbon storage (426-452 TgC) and sequestration potential (-12 to -17.5 TgCO2eq a-1) by 2050, indicating complementarity of emission mitigation and conservation measures. Assuming a price of ca. 80 € ton-1 CO2eq according to the current level of the EU emission trading system (EU ETS), the economic value of the carbon sequestration of the current protected areas in Finland would be about 500 million € per year. These areas thus provide ecosystem services of significant economic value. The results of our study can be utilized for integrating climate and biodiversity policies, accounting of ecosystem services for climate regulation, and delimitation of areas for conservation.
Tree influence on water dynamics in sloped forest soils: insights from stemflow and throughflow experiments and time-lapse ground-penetrating radar monitoring
Authors: Fernandes Gersende , Burguet Marimon Maria , Paz Salazar Maria , Marras Elisa , Murgia Ilenia , Kaffas Konstantinos , Giadrossich Filippo , D. Stewart Ryan , R. Abou Najm Majdi , Comegna Alessandro , Lassabatère Laurent , Penna Daniele , Massari Christian , Di Prima Simone
Published: March 2024

Incident gross precipitation is divided by tree canopies into three main parts: i) intercepted rainfall, which evaporates directly from the canopies, ii) throughfall, which reaches the soil surface after passing through the canopies, and iii) stemflow, which is concentrated from the canopies to the stems. Stemflow tends to infiltrate preferentially around the base of the stem, and once belowground, is channeled by tree roots.The objective of this research was to investigate the contribution of stemflow and throughflow to subsurface water dynamics in a hillslope forested with beech trees. The experimental activities were carried out in a 10 x 10 m plot located in the Lecciona catchment of the Appennine Mountains, Central Italy.  Stemflow was collected from seven beech trees located within the plot. Stemflow and throughfall were sequentially and then simultaneously induced using controlled water applications. Time-lapse ground-penetrating radar (GPR) surveys were conducted under each line of trees. Overland flow and subsurface runoff were collected with V-shaped gutters positioned at the bottom of the trees and at the downhill plot edge.Stemflow infiltration rates were calculated by a mass balance, i.e., subtracting the collected overland flow from the injected volume and then dividing by the stem basal area and the time of steady infiltration. Mean values for each tree and for the entire plot, the latter considering the throughfall experiments, were approximately 1000 mm/h. The GPR data enabled the detection of active preferential flow paths, assessment of hillslope connectivity, and estimation of flow velocities. GPR gave relevant information in the flow pathways in the soils, the effects of root systems and its combination with matrix flow.This experiment represents a straightforward, replicable, and non-invasive method for characterizing the role of trees in water runoff and infiltration at the hillslope spatial scale, and more broadly, in understanding how forested hillslope respond to rainstorms.
A geomagnetic  and AMSrecord of the  Lower Mammoth  (ca. 3.314+/- 0.034 Ma)  polarity transition recorded in the Icelandic and Rhyodacite  Mauna Kuwale long volcanic sequence Wai’ane Volcano, Oahu, Hawaii
Authors: Herrero-Bervera Emilio , Moreira Mario , Jicha Brian
Published: March 2024

New paleomagnetic measurements, coupled with 40Ar/39Ar dating of terrestrial lava sequences, are revolutionizing our understanding of the geodynamo by providing high resolution records of the paleomagnetic field. As part of an investigation of the short-term behavior of the geomagnetic field, we have sampled 25 cooling units of the Mauna Kuwale Wai’anae Volcano, Oahu Hawaii. After the flank collapse of the volcano 22 Icelanditic and 3 Rhyodacitic units were identified and sampled in detail for paleomagnetic, rock magnetic and petrofabric (AMS) studies. We performed both NRM and induced magnetic detailed experiments of the 25 individual cooling units. At least eight samples, collected from each of 25 successive cooling units at Mauna Kuwale, were stepwise demagnetized by both alternating field (5 mT to 100 mT) and thermal (from 28°C to 575–650°C) methods. Mean directions were obtained by principal component analysis. All samples yielded a strong and stable ChRM trending towards the origin of vector demagnetization diagrams based on seven or more demagnetization steps, with thermal and AF results differing insignificantly. Low-field susceptibility vs. temperature (k–T) analysis conducted on individual lava flows indicated approximately half with reversible curves. Curie point determinations from these analyses revealed a temperature close to or equal to 580°C, indicative of almost pure magnetite ranging from single domain (SD) to pseudo-single domain (PSD) grain sizes for most of the flows. FORCs were also determined. The mean directions of magnetization of the entire section sampled indicate a normal polarity, with ∼12 transitional cooling units of the sequence characterized by excursional directions. The record shows paleosecular variation within the transitional portion of the record similar to the Lower Mammoth polarity transition found on 3 adjacent units of the Wai’anae volcano. The 40Ar/39Ar isotopic determinations yielded an integrated age obtained from several specimens of 3.314+/- 0.034 Ma. 
EPOS Seismology: Connecting Communities, Advancing Research, and Paving the Way Forward
Authors: Segou Margarita , Anastasia Kiratzi , Cauzzi Carlo , Custódio Susana , Bossu Rémy , Haslinger Florian , Danciu Laurentiu , Jalayer Fatemeh , Basili Roberto , Molinari Irene , Oth Adrien
Published: March 2024

We present the dynamic landscape of EPOS Seismology, a Thematic Core Service consortium at the foundation of the European Plate Observing System (EPOS) infrastructure. Cultivated over the past decade through partnerships with prominent pan-European seismological entities,  the ORFEUS (Observatories and Research Facilities for European Seismology), EMSC (Euro-Mediterranean Seismological Center), and EFEHR (European Facilities for Earthquake Hazard and Risk), EPOS Seismology stands out as a collaborative governance framework. Facilitating the harmonized interaction between seismological community services, EPOS, and its associated bodies, endeavors to widen the collaboration to include data management, product provision, and the evolution of new seismological services.
Within the EPOS Delivery Framework, EPOS Seismology pioneers a diverse array of services, fostering open access to a wealth of seismological data and products while unwaveringly adhering to the FAIR principles and promoting open data and science. These services encompass the archival and dissemination of seismic waveforms of  24,000 seismic stations, access to pertinent station and data quality information, parametric earthquake data spanning recent and historical events, as well as advanced event-specific products such as moment tensors and source models together with reference seismic hazard and risk for the Euro-Mediterranean region. 
The seismological services are seamlessly integrated into the interoperable centralized EPOS data infrastructure and are openly accessible through established domain-specific platforms and websites. Collaboratively orchestrated by EPOS Seismology and its participating organizations, this integration provides a cohesive framework for the ongoing and future development of these services within the extensive EPOS network. The products and services support the transformative role of seismological research infrastructures, showcasing their pivotal contributions to the evolving narrative of solid Earth science within the broader context of EPOS.
Developing Earth Observation strategies for Global Volcano Monitoring (G-VEWERS)
Authors: Ebmeier Susanna , Poland Mike , Pritchard Matthew , Biggs Juliet , Bagnardi Marco
Published: March 2024

Satellite observations of displacement are critical to any efforts to monitor volcanoes globally given that less than half of world’s potentially active subaerial volcanoes are monitored continuously by ground-based systems.  Thermal, gas and displacement measurements all provide important insights for understanding volcanic processes.  Displacements measured by synthetic aperture radar in particular, are potentially informative in pre-eruptive periods, but remain especially uneven in their geographical coverage.  While this is partially due to variations in sources of uncertainty such as vegetation and atmospheric signals, it is also a consequence of unequal access to data and differences in local capacity to process and analyse it.The Committee for Earth Observation Satellites Working Group on Disasters Volcano Pilot (2014-2017) and Volcano Demonstrator (2019-2023) projects aimed to illustrated the great potential that satellite data have for detection and forecasting of unrest and eruption.  These programs have played a particular role in connecting volcano observatory scientists to constellation SAR imagery with a diversity of wavelengths, acquisition strategies and data access policies.   This work has had an impact on monitoring decisions at volcanoes, especially in Latin America, but has also resulted in the development of new approaches for integrating and interpreting diverse EO observations and contributed to the development of a strategy for global satellite monitoring of volcanoes.Here, we describe the aims and early progress of the successor initiative G-VEWERS (Global Volcano Early Warning and Eruption Response from Space). This aims to be a permanent partnership between space agencies, researchers at academic institutions, and volcano observatories, with the goal of coordinating the acquisition, access, and utilization of satellite data to support volcano monitoring and early warning at volcano observatories worldwide.
Spatial modelling of Soil Organic Carbon fractions in a degraded coal-mining area through UAV and Sentinel-2
Authors: Salgado Lorena , Forján Rubén , López-Sánchez Carlos A. , Álvarez María G. , Díaz Ana M. , Colina Arturo , Gallego Jose R.
Published: March 2024

Traditional methods to acquire (geo)chemical data of Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) in soil rely on manual sampling, time-consuming and laborious chemical analyses, and subsequent mapping by geostatistical interpolation methods. In this study, we propose the use of UAV-RS and Sentinel-2 images, still partially supported by field sampling, for assessing and mapping different fractions of SOC using a regression study through Machine Learning (ML) techniques. This approach is exemplified in the postmining degraded soils of a vast former coal-mining area affected mainly by high degradation of Organic Matter (O.M).Geochemical analyses by means of a TOC analyzer were conducted to monitor SOC fractions. Soil samples were dried and sieved through a 2-mm mesh to eliminate large particles. Two labile fractions of carbon (CLAB) were obtained through cold-water extraction (CCWE) and hot-water extraction (CHWE); also, two removable carbon fractions (CREM), humic and fulvic acids (CHA and CFA), were extracted; finally, the remaining recalcitrant organic carbon (CREC) was measured in the residue of the previous extractions. TOC was estimated as the sum of CLAB, CREM and CREC.Spectral data were systematically recorded across a surface area covering 64 hectares within former open pits, involving natural, restored, and degraded zones. A UAV-RS P4-Multispectral platform, equipped with a camera featuring six individual sensors (RGB, blue, green, red, red-edge, and near-infrared), was used; five distinct bands between the visible and near-infrared spectra were obtained. Simultaneously, Sentinel-2 data were employed to acquire spectral information from satellite-borne sensors, thereby obtaining 12 single bands (aerosol, blue, green, red, 3 red edge, 2 NIR, water vapor, cirrus, and 2 SWIR). Given the limitations of information derived from individual bands, spectral indices—combinations of multiple bands through algebraic operations—were employed. Subsequently, two ML algorithms, specifically Random Forest (RF) and Partial Least Square (PLS), were applied to identify the most fitted model for each SOC fraction.Results revealed that the utilization of non-parametric algorithms, specifically RF, yields a superior goodness of fit compared to parametric algorithms like PLS. The most favourable statistical outcomes were observed for fractions of non-labile organic carbon, with the optimal statistics achieved for CREC, attaining an R2 value of 0.70 and an RPD value of 1.83. When comparing data from UAV and Sentinel-2 sources, better results were found for UAV, this strongly suggesting that, in this study, spatial resolution holds greater relevance than spectral resolution.This research was funded by the projects NATURESOIL (AEI/Spain, TED2021-130375B-I00) and Atlantic Risk Management Plan in Water and Soil (RiskAquaSoil 272-2016, Interreg Atlantic Area, EU).
The Dynamics and Propagation of Westerly Wind Bursts
Authors: Bovenzi Inko , Fu Minmin , Tziperman Eli
Published: March 2024

Westerly wind bursts (WWBs), a westerly anomaly in equatorial winds in the Pacific, occur before every major El Niño event, yet major aspects of their mechanism are still not fully understood. Proposed mechanisms include cyclones approaching the equator, eastern-propagating convective heating, and wind-induced surface heat exchange, which amplifies WWBs near their peaks (Fu and Tziperman, 2019). To better understand WWB dynamics, we study their composite momentum budget using reanalysis and examine the role of convective heating and other factors. We find that many WWBs are not directly explained by nearby tropical cyclones or convective precipitation. We study their momentum budget before, during, and after the peak of the event, finding different balances at each stage. A comparison of the deduced balance to that in atmospheric general circulation climate models should add confidence in their ability to simulate this important factor in El Niño's development.
Feasibility of in-situ carbon mineralization in serpentinite via shallow injection, British Columbia, Canada
Authors: Steinthorsdottir Katrin , Dipple Greg , Snæbjörnsdóttir Sandra , Rahimi Mana , Pete Shandin , Pellett Christa , Clift Brady , Kolbeinsdóttir Salka
Published: March 2024

Carbon storage via shallow CO2 injection and mineralization in subsurface geologic formations has been demonstrated at the kilotonne scale in basalt (e.g., Hellisheidi, Iceland) but not in ultramafic rock. This type of storage dissolves CO2 in water that is then injected underground into shallow rock formations from 300-2000 m depth, where it reacts and forms permanent carbonate minerals. This project assesses the potential for CO2 injection into serpentinite, specifically within British Columbia, Canada.Site selection included multi-criteria index overlay analysis for logistical factors (e.g. water, electricity, access) and evaluation of geological data to prioritize which sites contain 1 km2 mapped voluminous serpentinite. Of the 746 mapped ultramafic formations, 84 formations within 21 areas meet threshold criteria, and of these, three stand out with clearly higher potential. These are 1) the Shulaps complex, 2) the Coquihalla serpentine belt, and 3) the Tulameen intrusion, all in southwest British Columbia. These areas have in common that they are close to infrastructure, are located in regions with higher annual temperatures, and have known geological and geophysical characteristics indicative of serpentinite. The Shulaps and Coquihalla are mantle massifs and mainly composed of serpentinized harzburgite, and Tulameen is an Alaskan-type ultramafic intrusion with a serpentinized dunite core.Six different carbon storage potential estimates using volume limitations, dissolution, and reactivity rates from experiments, and natural analogues are shown for the three potential sites, for Shulaps 141.2-18,682 MtCO2, for Coquihalla 9.416-1,245 MtCO2, and for Tulameen 2.825-373.6 MtCO2. Fieldwork observations and preliminary results show, as expected, heterogeneity of protoliths, serpentinization extent, and fracture density between the areas. Coquihalla was selected for a proposed pilot injection study because of its high serpentinization extent (>90%, suggesting high reactivity), continuous high fracture density (suggesting adequate injectivity), site accessibility through existing road systems, and proximity to electricity.An additional aspect of project development is engagement with local communities. All three of the top-ranked sites fall within traditional lands of First Nations peoples, and we conducted early engagement with 22 First Nations or alliances. The priorities for engagement were to inform people about the project and its implications, get consent for fieldwork, have a discussion, and start relationship building.
Different long-term trends of foF2 with different solar activity indices
Authors: Laštovička Jan
Published: March 2024

I use yearly average noontime foF2 from six ionospheric stations from four continents, Juliusruh, Pruhonice, Roma, Boulder, Kokubunji and Canberra over periods 1976-1995 and 1996-2014, and six solar activity indices F10.7, F30, Mg II, solar H Lyman-α flux, sunspot numbers and He II. The results reveal somewhat and sometimes even substantially different trends of foF2 when the effect of solar cycle is removed/reduced from foF2 data with different solar activity proxies. Only F30 provides for all stations and both periods the trends of the same sign (negative), other indices reveal both positive and negative trends for different stations and periods. Therefore together with results of other criteria F30 is considered to be the most reliable solar activity index for long-term studies of midlatitude foF2. 
Causal information flow and information transfer delay from ENSO and IOD to precipitation variability in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan
Authors: Latif Yasir , Palus Milan
Published: March 2024

In 2022, La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) coincided, causing abnormally warm sea surface conditions in the eastern Indian Ocean (near Indonesia). This provided additional moisture to feed monsoon depressions, resulting in heavy rainfall in Pakistan. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) are two modes of sea surface temperature variability that can significantly impact precipitation in Pakistan's Upper Indus Basin. The current study used in situ observations and reanalysis ERA 5 precipitation data to determine the causal influence of ENSO and IOD on precipitation variability using an information-theoretic generalization of Granger causality. The predicted causal effect and causal delay obtained using conditional mutual information, a.k.a. transfer entropy, were further validated using conditional means ("composites") - precipitation means computed for different ENSO states; El Niño (positive), La Niña (negative), and neutral. Uncovering the causal and delayed effects of ENSO and IOD, as well as associated mechanisms, on subsequent precipitation in the UIB could provide a stronger foundation for improving seasonal climate predictions with a longer lead time, as well as understanding how regional and large-scale drivers affect regional precipitation.This study was supported by the Czech Academy of Sciences, Praemium Academiae awarded to M. Paluš and the Czech–Chinese Academies of Sciences Mobility Plus Project NSFC-23-08.
Finding Hidden Conjunctions in the Solar Wind
Authors: Faes Zoe , Hayes Laura , Müller Daniel , Walsh Andrew
Published: March 2024

This study aims to identify sets of in-situ measurements of the solar wind which sample the same volume of plasma at different times and locations as it travels through the heliosphere using ensemble machine learning methods. Multiple observations of a single volume of plasma by different spacecraft - referred to here as conjunctions - are becoming more frequent in the current “golden age of heliophysics research” and are key to characterizing the expansion of the solar wind. Specifically, identifying these related observations will enable us to test the current understanding of solar wind acceleration from the corona to the inner heliosphere with a more comprehensive set of measurements than has been used in previous analyses.Using in-situ measurements of the background solar wind from Solar Orbiter, Parker Solar Probe, STEREO-A, Wind and BepiColombo, we identify a set of criteria based on features of magnetic field, velocity, density and temperature timeseries of known conjunctions and search for other instances for which the criteria are satisfied, to find previously unknown conjunctions. We use an ensemble of models, including random forests and recurrent neural networks with long short-term memory trained on synthetic observations obtained from magnetohydrodynamic simulations, to identify candidate conjunctions solely from kinetic properties of the solar wind. Initial results show a previously unidentified set of conjunctions between the spacecraft considered in this study. While this analysis has thus far only been performed on observations obtained since 2021 (start of Solar Orbiter science operations), the methods used here can be applied to other datasets to increase the potential for scientific return of existing and future heliophysics missions.The modular scientific software built over the course of this research includes methods for the retrieval, processing, visualisation, and analysis of observational and synthetic timeseries of solar wind properties. It also includes methods for feature engineering and integration with widely used machine learning libraries. The software is available as an open-source Python package to ensure results can be easily reproduced and to facilitate further investigation of coordinated in-situ data in heliophysics.
Rainfall temporal variability and rainwater harvesting efficiency: an analysis over the Italian territory. 
Authors: Carollo Matteo , Butera Ilaria
Published: March 2024

Rainwater harvesting for indoor uses could be a useful practice for a sustainable management of urban water. The realization of a rainwater harvesting system strictly depends on the costs and the required space so that an accurate design is necessary, especially in the tank sizing step. The volume of the tank is an important element of the system which impacts not only important environmental issues such as the volumes of saved potable water and the reduction of rainwater volumes to the sewerage system, but also the costs and the practical realization of the rainwater harvesting system. Nevertheless, while the professional world seeks solutions that are easy to apply (e.g. simplified sizing methods), from a scientific point of view several aspects are still to be clarified, among these the role of the temporal variability of rainfall in the tank sizing step, that is the object of the present study.Rainfall temporal variability is quantified by the Coefficient of Variation (CV) of rainfall datasets. This analysis is carried out through numerical simulations and it is focused on the national Italian territory. Daily rainfall data of 3436 rainfall gauge stations located on the national Italian territory are considered and buildings with different catchment area and number of persons are taken into account. Our computations show that the majority of rainfall gauges in Italy has a rainfall CV in the 2.5-3.5 range, with higher values in the South and in the main islands. The role of the temporal variability of rainfall is clear: the same building in locations with the same mean annual rainfall depth, can require different tank sizes according to the rainfall coefficient of variation of the specific location. As an example, to reach the same water saving, a medium rise building located in Ascoli Satriano (CV=2.42) should be equipped with a tank size of 2700 litres, while in other locations which have the same mean annual rainfall depth but different CV, like Casale Monferrato (CV=3.41) and Muravera (CV=4.83), the required capacity is 3400 litres and 6800 litres, respectively. This underline the importance of taking into account the rainfall temporal variability in the tank sizing.The analysis made use of non dimensional parameters, i.e. the storage fraction and the demand fraction, so that the results, obtained from different buildings over the Italian territory, are comparable, allowing in this way to build a unique graph that contains all information: the water demand, the mean annual rainfall depth and the rainfall coefficient of variation, as well as the number of inhabitants and the roof area of the building.