bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Finite Element Reliability Analysis of Steel Containment Vessels with Corrosion Damage
Authors: Wang Xiaolei ,   School of Civil Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology P.O. Box 2546, 73 Huanghe Road, Harbin, 150090, China, Lu Dagang ,   Key Lab of Structures Dynamic Behavior and Control (Harbin Institute of Technology), Ministry of Education P.O. Box 2546, 73 Huanghe Road, Harbin, 150090, China
Published: April 2016

Containment vessels, which contain any radioactive materials that would be released from the primary system in an accident, are the last barrier between the environment and the nuclear steam supply system in nuclear power plants. Assessing the probability of failure for the containment building is essential to level 2 PSA studies of nuclear power plants. Degradation of containment vessels of some nuclear power plants has been observed in many countries, so it is important to study how the corrosion has adverse effects on the capacity of containment vessels. Conventionally, the reliability analysis of containment vessels can be conducted by using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) or Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) with the deterministic finite element analysis. In this paper, a 3D finite element model of an AP1000 steel containment vessel is constructed using the general-purpose nonlinear finite element analysis program ABAQUS. Then the finite element reliability method (FERM) based on the first order reliability method (FORM) is applied to analyze the reliability of the steel containment vessel, which is implemented by combining ABAQUS and MATLAB software platforms. The reliability and sensitivity indices of steel containment vessels under internal pressure with and without corrosion damage are obtained and compared. It is found that the FERM-based procedure is very efficient to analyze reliability and sensitivity of nuclear power plant structures.
Development of Science-Based Decision Support System for Evaluating the Safety of Evacuation Facilities in Case of Torrential Rains
Authors: Miyake Hidetomo ,   Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University  Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan, Hayashi Haruo , Suzuki Shingo , Nishino Takahiro ,   Disaster Prevention Reserch Institute (DPRI), Kyoto University  Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto611-0011, Japan,   R,   Media Solution lnc.  472-2, Hinokuti-cho, Nakagyo-ku, Kyoto, Kyoto604-0912, Japan
Published: April 2016

Torrential rains have been increasing in frequency. There have been instances in which residents were caught up on their way to evacuation shelters. It is important to check on hazards caused by conditions, on the adequacy of evacuation facilities, and on water levels and weather advisories. When taking appropriate action in torrential rains, it is necessary to assess weather and water information based on the preliminary survey of evacuation. To improve the quality of decision making, a science-based procedure should utilized by public agencies to judge the situation. We propose a procedure manual and web-based system for take appropriate action as disaster response.
Fire Protection Analysis and Potential Improvements for Wooden Cultural Heritage Sites in Japan
Authors: Kim Kwang-Il ,   Inje University, 197 Inje-ro, Gimhae, Gyeongnam 621-749, Korea, Konishi Tadashi , Ziemba Tomek , Nonaka Hirofumi , Nam Ki-Hun , Tanaka Takeyoshi ,   National Institute of Technology, Oita College, Oita, Japan,   Nagaoka University of Technology, Niigata, Japan,   Professor Emeritus, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan
Published: April 2016

Wooden cultural properties are exposed to risks such as forest fires and arson, due to natural disasters and social change. To protect these heritage sites from such risks, we focused on fire protection facilities and systems, fire-related accidents, and arson affecting wooden cultural heritage sites in Kyoto and Hyogo. A questionnaire was filled out by heritage site affiliates, and responses and investigated materials were analyzed. We found that Kyoto and Hyogo wooden cultural heritage sites were well equipped with fire protection facilities and equipment. Specifically, automatic fire protection systems linked the general public, government-related institutes and local governments to improve facilities usage. These systems played a crucial cultural site monitoring role. Increasing public interest in these cultural heritage sites has led to a more engaging and prompt response by the small number of neighboring parties and firefighters. To improve fire and disaster prevention functionality effectively, it is recommended that sites establish automatic fire protection systems and cooperate with the general public, local institutions, and government agencies.
Ground Motion Estimation Using Front Site Wave Form Data Based on RVM for Earthquake Early Warning
Authors: Yang Yincheng ,   Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University Aramaki Aza-Aoba 468-1, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-0845, Japan, Motosaka Masato ,   International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University Aramaki Aza-Aoba 468-1, Aoba-ku, Sendai 980-0845, Japan
Published: April 2016

The use of the earthquake early warning system (EEWS), one of the most useful emergency response tools, requires that the accuracy of real-time ground motion prediction (GMP) be enhanced. This requires that waveform information at observation points along earthquake wave propagation paths (hereafter, front-site waveform information) be used effectively. To enhance the combined reliability of different systems, such as on-site and local/regional warning, we present a GMP method using front-site waveform information by applying a relevant vector machine (RVM). We present methodology and application examples for a case study estimating peak ground acceleration (PGA) and peak ground velocity (PGV) for earthquakes in the Miyagi-Ken Oki subduction zone. With no knowledge of source information, front site waveforms have been used to predict ground motion at target sites. Five input variables – earthquake PGA, PGD, pulse rise time, average period and theVpmax/Amaxratio – have been used for the first 4 to 6 seconds of P-waves in training a regression model. We found that RVM is a useful tool for the prediction of peak ground motion.
Voluntary Isolation After the Disaster: The Loss of Community and Family in the Super Aged Society in Japan
Authors: Sasaki Kanako ,   Tohoku University  6-3-09 Aramaki aza Aoba, Sendai, Japan, Sakurai Miyako
Published: April 2016

In the four years since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami, the number of local elderly persons who live alone in temporary housing has increased. In fact, elderly persons are willing to remain in temporary housing, isolating themselves from family members to join comforting community. This research focuses on why these elderly persons have chosen to isolate themselves.
Initial Responses of the Government of Japan to the Great East Japan Earthquake (Earthquake and Tsunami) and Lessons Learned from Them
Authors: Kotaki Akira ,   Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) 2-1-3 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8918, Japan
Published: April 2016

Various lessons regarding initial and emergency responses to huge disasters in future can be derived from the processes of establishing and managing the Government's Extreme Disaster Management Headquarters for the Great East Japan Earthquake. Huge disasters (L2) that might occur at a very low frequency and could cause tremendous damage can be controlled only to a limited extent by constructing infrastructure alone. In addition, because the picture of disasters that occur in different manners cannot be fixed, it is necessary to accumulate various infrastructural and non-infrastructural measures in the order of effectiveness from the standpoint of disaster risk reduction to accept and mitigate damage. Supports to disaster-affected people such as early recovery, evacuation, rescue, emergency medical life-saving, and emergency supplies in initial responses should be strengthened to promptly respond to disasters. For that purpose, it is important to establish a system that allows the government or prefectures to temporarily take disaster emergency measures when prefectures or municipalities lose administrative functions, formulate a system for the government to respond to huge disasters, and improve disaster information functionality, conduct drills and prepare for rehabilitation and reconstruction.
Issues Facing Voluntary Evacuees from the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant Accident Based on the Collection and Analysis of Cases of Voluntary Evacuation
Authors: Tomoyasu Kota ,   Graduate School of Human Science and Environment, University of Hyogo, Hyogo, Japan, Kimura Reo , Mashima Hitomi , Kazama Ikuno ,   NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corporation), Tokyo, Japan
Published: April 2016

Although over three years have passed since the Great East Japan Earthquake, it is estimated that there remain approximately 135,000 evacuees from the nuclear power plant accident, 81,000 of whom had been living in areas under evacuation orders and 54,000 of whom had been living outside these areas (i.e., voluntary evacuees). However, the lived experience of such voluntary evacuees has been uncertain, as it is not possible to identify them. Consequently, it has not been possible to clarify the anxieties they harbor as they continue their extended existence as evacuees or to determine the issues they face in reconstructing their lives, making it difficult to extend suitable assistance measures. In this study, we worked with NHK to conduct a survey of voluntary evacuees. A list of interviewees compiled by NHK reporters was used to survey voluntary evacuees, who are difficult to identify. By analyzing the collected cases, we examined issues faced by “voluntary evacuees.” The results showed that the majority of the voluntary evacuees in this survey were mothers who had evacuated with their young children (but without their spouses) and who felt that they had had to evacuate due to anxieties about the effects of radiation exposure on their children’s growth. They tended to feel that it was difficult to return to their former areas of residence and that they had no choice except to continue living as evacuees. Furthermore, there were cases in which couples that had previously been living together had separated for reasons of work or place of occupation and had been forced into situations where they were obliged to economically support two households, with adverse effects on their budgets, minds, and bodies. In addition, the nuclear power plant accident made it difficult for them to decide where to base themselves in the future; in some cases, evacuees returned to their pre-disaster areas of residence only to evacuate again. Against the designation “voluntary,” the voluntary evacuees in this survey lived under circumstances in which they felt that they had had no choice but to evacuate; in enduring the difficulties of evacuation, they did not feel they had acted according to their voluntary will. This points to the need to implement effective assistance.
Proposal for Robust Monitoring of Catastrophic Tsunami Using Onshore Strain and Tilt Geodetic Sensors
Authors: Takahashi Hiroaki ,   Institute of Seismology and Volcanology, Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University  N10 W8, Kita-ku, Sapporo, Hokkaido 060-0810, Japan
Published: April 2016

Tsunami monitoring is fundamental and essential for disaster warnings and rescue operations. The gigantic tsunami caused by the Tohoku earthquake off Japan’s Pacific coast in 2011 completely destroyed tsunami observation facilities along the seashore. The subsequent lack of real-time monitoring data caused confusions in devastated area rescue operations. These experiences indicate a need for more robust tsunami monitoring techniques to enable catastrophic events observation. We tested a hypothesis on whether secure onshore strain and tilt sensors could be used as tsunami gauges. We compared data from tsunami gauges and strain and tilt meters for 2011 Japan and 2010 Chile tsunami events clearly indicating that geodetic sensors recorded tsunami signals well. The high correlation between geodetic signals and tsunami height indicated that tsunami height could be estimated using only onshore geodetic data, i.e., secure onshore strain and tilt meters could act as robust tsunami monitoring systems when catastrophic events occur.
Application of Natural Disaster Information for Supply Chain Resilience
Authors: Ono Takahiro ,   Nagoya Institute of Technology (NIT)  Gokiso-cho, Showa, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan, Watanabe Kenji ,   Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC)  1-5-2 Wakinohamakaigan Dori, Chuo, Kobe 651-0073, Japan
Published: April 2016

Many natural disasters occur annually in the world and the damage ratio of Asia is especially high compared to other regions. Since the Japanese industry is highly dependent on Asian economy, the enterprises in Japan should consider carefully about the negative effect of supply chain disruption and its effective disaster reduction measures against natural disasters in Asian region. This paper consider integrated disaster information by using common numbering system for natural disasters which seem to be effective in promoting disaster risk reduction measures and the possibility of utilizing those common numbering system for BCP and BCM development for organization.
Support for Farmland Restoration Through Mutual Assistance After Flood Disasters in Hilly and Mountainous Areas – Cases of the Cities of Yame and Ukiha Affected by the Torrential Rainfall in Northern Kyushu in July 2012 –
Authors: Asahiro Kazuo ,   Department of Environment Design, Faculty of Design, Kyushu  University  4-9-1 Shiobaru, Minamiku, Fukuoka 815-8540, Japan, Tani Masakazu , Kanekiyo Hiroyuki
Published: April 2016

A considerable amount of farmland was destroyed by a flood disaster that struck in 2012 in Yame and Ukiha, in Fukuoka prefecture in the northern part of the island of Kyushu, Japan. This paper is a case study of the volunteer farmland restoration activities that were carried out in the hilly and mountainous areas after the flood. The purpose of this study is to outline the activities in three regions and to show the character of the volunteer farmland restoration groups. Interview surveys were conducted with the manager of each volunteer group, and data on the process of forming volunteer groups, the monthly process and distribution of activities, facilities requirements, and intermediaries between affected farmers and volunteer activities were collected in field surveys. The surveys were carried out from June to September, 2014. It was found that conservation activities were carried out in the three regions starting the year before the disaster. It is notable that Sansonjyuku, a NPO established in 1994, launched their activities in July, the month in which disaster struck. Activity areas by Sansonjyuku were unevenly distributed due to their experiences with volunteer activities in previous years. The other groups widely covered their areas because they carried out needs research on all local districts through ward mayors. Fifty percent to 75.9% support activities were intermediated by someone, and the ward mayors fulfilled this role more than 50% of the time.
A Study on Community-Based Reconstruction from Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster – A Case Study of Iwanuma City in Miyagi-Pref.
Authors: Ishikawa Mikiko ,   Department of Faculty of Science and Engineering, Chuo University 1-13-27 Kasuga, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan
Published: April 2016

Community-based reconstruction is the process in which social, environmental and cultural reconstruction of a community is conducted by disaster survivors following a disaster.

The author analyzed the community-based reconstruction process following the Great East Japan Earthquake. The author focuses on Iwanuma, a city in Miyagi Prefecture in which community-based reconstruction was carried out from April 2011 to July 2015, and clarified the characteristics of reconstruction planning which was done based on a collaboration of disaster survivors, local government officials and universities and other organizations. This process was then evaluated for community sustainability.

Results have clarified four stages in reconstruction planning, i.e., grand design, community workshops, consensus building by a formal committee, and new machizukuri (community building) created by the disaster survivors themselves. Consensus building was found to be the essential factor of community-based reconstruction, with each stage having different roles in consensus building.
Proposal and Practice of Comprehensive Disaster Mitigation Depending on Communities in Preservation Districts for Traditional Buildings
Authors: Yokouchi Hajime ,   National Institute of Technology, Oyama College 771 Nakakuki, Oyama-city, Tochigi, Japan
Published: April 2016

We present a methodology for systematizing and implementing comprehensive disaster mitigation based on having communities target the preservation districts of traditional buildings. After discussing the background for this study, we introduce comprehensive disaster mitigation based on communities based on lessons learned from the relationship of stakeholders and earthquake damage sustained by Sakuragawa city’s Makabe traditional building district, in the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake. We then demonstrate the effectiveness of using social networks connected to community tradition and culture as their core, i.e., as a way for implementing our proposed practical comprehensive disaster mitigation in Tochigi city’s Kauemon-cho traditional building district.
Challenges for Safe and Secure Community Development in Traditional Architectures Preservation Districts – A Case Study on Tochigi District
Authors: Kawazoe Saori ,   Graduate School of Letters, Arts and Sciences, Waseda University  1-24-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Toyokawa Saikaku , Imai Fumiko , Urano Masaki ,   Department of Architecture, Oyama National Institute of Technology  771 Nakakuki, Oyama City, Tochigi, Japan,   Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering, Tsukuba University  1-1-1 Tenodai, Tsukuba City, Ibaraki, Japan,   Faculty of Letters, Arts and Sciences  1-24-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan
Published: April 2016

This paper describes the process in which the network for those who are engaged with individual fields has been rebuilt and the local community reorganized by adding a new group of persons to the existing one through sharing the common prospective to designate the Traditional Architecture Preservation District, in another word to inherit the local culture. We have conducted action research in the field of Traditional Architectures Preservation District in Tochigi City. This research points out that the social vulnerability of the community could be addressed by raising the consciousness on “protection of community with the help of all,” and by reorganizing the community, which would lead to comprehensive disaster prevention.
Critical Review of Japanese Disaster Medical Education for Citizens: Exploring the Method of Medutainment
Authors: Yoda Ikushi ,   Human Informatics Research Institute, National Institute of Advanced  Industrial Science and Technology (AIST)   1-1-1 Umezono, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8560, Japan, Shiroyama Momo , Uesugi Hirotaka , Kamagata Hironobu , Ohta Shoichi ,   Graduate School of Comprehensive Human Sciences, University of Tsukuba   1-1-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8577, Japan,   Department of Emergency and Critical Care Medicine, Tokyo Medical University  6-7-1 Nishishinjuku, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 160-0023, Japan
Published: April 2016

Various attempts have been made to disseminate first aid treatment related to disaster medicine to the public. More specifically, employees of fire stations hold seminars and visit schools using textbooks as general practice. However, it is difficult to judge whether attendees are actively involved in them or attending only because they are required to do so. Therefore, a broad survey on books, DVDs, experiential education, and information technology (IT) centering on first aid was conducted using a hierarchical system of ages of intended audience members. This survey was performed to create an IT-based textbook to disseminate to the public first aid techniques that are difficult to learn if low-cost experience-based education is not available. In addition, a new method for “medutainment” (medical edutainment) was studied as a way to teach new disaster medicine guidelines for citizens for medical rescue training.
Optimal Life Recovery Assistance for Those Who Are Residing in Designated Temporary Housing in Widely Dispersed Locations: Interim Findings on Different Household Groups and on Life Recovery Promotion Parameters
Authors: Tatsuki Shigeo ,   Department of Sociology, Doshisha University Kamigyo-ku, Kyoto 602-8580, Japan
Published: April 2016

Most persons whose houses were destroyed in the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake/tsunami disaster now reside in designated temporary housing (DTH). Unlike prefabricated temporary housing (PTH) occupants, DTH dwellers reside in widely dispersed locations. Japanese disaster research has mainly focused on life recovery assistance for PTH occupants who live in close proximity and not much is known about DHT residing “diaspora” survivors. This paper outlines a set of projects aimed at identifying 1) life recovery process characteristics among DTH occupants, 2) interrelationships between community rebuilding and individual life recovery processes of DTH dwellers, 3) connecting or reconnect such residents, and 4) managing individual life recovery by providing disaster case management services. We focused on interim findings about life recovery process studies based on ethnographic and community-based participatory research and implications regarding DTH residents’ valuations in terms of rank-ordering the seven critical elements (SCEs) for life recovery. We compare their situation to that of survivors of the 1995 Kobe earthquake.
Model of Tsunami Preparedness for Indonesian Tsunami Prone Areas Communities
Authors: Nurhayaty Any ,   Faculty of Psychology, Universitas Gadjah Mada Yogyakarta, Indonesia, Wimbarti Supra , Triatmadja Radianta , Hastjarjo Thomas D. ,   Faculty of Engineering, Universitas Gadjah Mada Yogyakarta, Indonesia
Published: April 2016

A tsunami disaster normally happens minutes to hours after an earthquake. Indonesia is prone to tsunamis that may be triggered by activity at plates’ boundaries surrounding the archipelago. In order to mitigate the risks and to prepare the people against the hazard a model that relates important variables influencing the degree of preparedness is required. Such model is not yet available for people with highly collectivistic culture such as Indonesia.

The study is aimed primarily at establishing a new model of preparedness against tsunami based on an existing model by accommodating a sense of community variable which is missing in the existing model. The existing model was developed based on an individualistic culture of Kodiak Alaska. In Indonesia where the culture is highly collectivistic, such a variable may play important role in the tsunami preparedness model. The model was tested on Parangtritis and Banda Aceh communities of Indonesia. The results were compared with the existing model where the sense of community variable is absent. The inter-related dependence relationships of variables in the existing model are found to be largely similar to those in the proposed models of tsunami preparedness in Indonesia with two significant differences. First the sense of community is the most important variable that affects empowerment, whilst the influence of community participation on empowerment is much lower in Indonesia. Secondly the community participation has insignificant direct influence on the preparedness within the collectivistic community. Therefore it may be concluded that direct community development through preparedness education and information without considering the sense of community within the collectivistic community is not likely to give significant results to preparedness improvement.
Understanding Household Mobilization Time During Natech Accident Evacuation
Authors: Yu Junlei ,   Graduate School of Engineering, Department of Architecture, Kobe University, Hokugo Akihiko ,   Research Center for Urban Safety and Security, Kobe University 1-1 Rokkodai, Nada, Kobe 657-8501, Japan
Published: April 2016

Natural disasters can cause major technological accidents (Natech accidents) resulting in fires, explosions or hazardous materials releases. The severe consequence may risk human lives and property. Understanding household evacuation behavior could help emergency managers develop strategies that protect the populace better against Natech risk. Our goal in this study is to capture in household mobilization time from the moment the Natech accident occurs and the moment evacuation occurs. Actual evacuation may or may not occur depending on the judgment of individuals about perceived risk or on evacuation orders by local authorities. Data we collected was from a random household survey following a Natech accident at a Sendai oil refinery during the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and Tsunami. Results show that respondents evacuated faster after receiving a Natech evacuation order than based on their own judgments. Risk perception and respondents’ demographic characteristics played roles in when evacuation mobilization began. The findings advanced our knowledge of household evacuation timing behavior in response to a Natech accident and could assist emergency managers in developing better strategies for managing the evacuation process.
A Case Study on Estimation of Business Interruption Losses to Industrial Sectors Due to Flood Disasters
Authors: Yang Lijiao ,   Graduate School of Informatics, Kyoto University Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan, Tatano Hirokazu , Kajitani Yoshio , Jiang Xinyu ,   Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan,   Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry Abiko, Abiko-shi, Chiba 270-1194, Japan
Published: April 2016

The case study we present on estimating business interruption (BI) loss to industrial sectors due to floods in Aichi Prefecture, Japan, involves four steps – estimating the business interruption loss rate (BILR), estimating the spatial distribution of hazard information, identifying the spatial distribution of exposure such as firms and employees, and calculating BI loss based on the BILR, hazards, and exposure information as input. Validation was conducted by comparing estimated BI loss to economic loss calculated by an index of industrial production (IIP). We found that the proposed methodology quickly and feasibly estimates BI loss once water depth is obtained. Estimated BILR and BI loss in the industrial sector provides information enabling individual firms to formulate business continuity plans and design risk management strategies.
Bacterial Monitoring in the International Space Station – “Kibo”
Authors: Ichijo Tomoaki ,   Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, Osaka University  1-6 Yamadaoka, Suita, Osaka 565-0871, Japan, Yamaguchi Nobuyasu , Nasu Masao
Published: April 2016

Since 2009, we have been continuously performing bacterial monitoring in Kibo, the Japanese Experiment Module of the International Space Station (ISS), in cooperation with the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). The objective of this research is to monitor microbes and analyze their dynamics in Kibo from environmental microbiological viewpoints. In this review, we summarize our research related to bacterial monitoring in Kibo.
Disaster Warning System in the Philippines Through Enterprise Engineering Perspective: A Study on the 2013 Super Typhoon Haiyan
Authors: Leelawat Natt ,   Department of Industrial Engineering and Management, Graduate School of Decision Science and Technology, Tokyo Institute of Technology 2-12-1-W9-66 Ookayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8550, Japan, Suppasri Anawat , Kure Shuichi , Yi Carine J. , Mateo Cherry May R. , Imamura Fumihiko ,   International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Japan,   Intitute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, Japan
Published: April 2016

In this research on disaster warning systems, the Philippines was selected to be a case study. The Philippines was hit by a particularly bad storm in 2013 Super Typhoon Haiyan. Here we focused on warning system process management from an enterprise engineering perspective. In understanding warning systems, it is necessary to know the essence of overall processes. The objective of this qualitative study is to determine the system’s essential components by using the Design and Engineering Methodology for Organizations (DEMO). This involves both assigning responsibility levels and utilizing both traditional means such as broadcast vehicles with speakers and radios and newer means such as Internet channels to disseminate warning information. The findings provide a simple model explaining the disaster-related organization and communication structure. They also contribute a practical aspect in the form of suggestions to planners and decision makers that may assist them in preparing mitigation plans for projected natural disasters.
Organizational Structure and Institutions for Disaster Prevention: Research on the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in Kobe City
Authors: Matsuyama Masahiro ,   Faculty of Contemporary Social Studies, Kobegakuin University  1-1-3 Minatojima, Chuo-ku, Kobe 650-8586, Japan, Kimura Reo , Hayashi Haruo ,   Graduate School of Human Science and Environment, University of Hyogo  1-1-12, Shinzaike-honcho, Himeji, Hyogo 670-0092, Japan,   Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University  Gokasho, Uji-shi, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
Published: April 2016

Based on the author’s work experiences at the Kobe City fire department, this study examines the deaths directly and indirectly caused by earthquakes based on an examination of the firefighting, rescue, and emergency care operations that took place following the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. In particular, this study examines the ways in which the voluntary disaster-prevention organizations as well as the public services institutions, including the fire and police departments, have incorporated the lessons learned from previous disaster experiences. This approach is based on an observation of the operations conducted in Kobe City, and presents a framework aimed toward protecting lives from future earthquake disasters.
A Distributed Autonomous Approach to Developing a Disaster Evacuation Assist System
Authors: Iizuka Yasuki ,   Department of Mathematical Sciences, Tokai University 4-1-1 Kitakaname, Hiratsuka, Kanagawa 259-1292, Japan, Kinoshita Katsuya , Iizuka Kayo ,   System Research Co., LTD, Aichi, Japan,   Senshu University, Kanagawa, Japan
Published: April 2016

In times of disaster, or other emergency situations, it is essential for people to be evacuated in a smooth manner. Evacuation must be performed promptly and safely. It is necessary to avoid generating a secondary disaster at the time of evacuation. However, this is not easy to realize, because people often tend to panic when faced with disaster, crowding the evacuation passageways of buildings. On the other hand, people do not attempt to evacuate themselves from danger when the normalcy bias has occurred. Therefore, evacuation guidance is very important. However, it is impossible to guide all evacuees through authorities such as disaster countermeasure offices. To deal with this issue, the authors propose a system that provides optimal evacuation guidance autonomously without central server. The system works on the mobile devices of evacuees, performs distributed calculations using the framework of the distributed constraint optimization problem on ad-hoc communication, and does not need a central server. In the experiment using multi-agent simulation, for the case where the evacuees can receive evacuation guidance from this system, the evacuation completion time decreased. This paper presents an overview and the evaluation results of the prototype of the disaster evacuation assistance system.
Impacts of Business Continuity Management (BCM) on Automobile Parts Makers Against Natural Disaster Events
Authors: Montshiwa Abednico Lopang ,   Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University 661180Aza- Aoba-ku, Sendai, Miyagi 980-8579, Japan, Nagahira Akio
Published: April 2016

Recently, automobile parts manufacturers have faced unprecedented natural disaster challenges in their operations. It is increasingly complicated to prepare for disruptions in this industry owing to both its elaborate and extensive supply chain network and the ever increasing number of natural disaster events around the world. We surveyed the impacts of business continuity management (BCM) on 92 automobile parts markers in disaster-prone regions (Asia and North America). The survey revealed that risk-conscious companies reported better business impact analysis (BIA) and supply chain cooperation status than did non-risk conscious companies. Of the companies that were satisfied with their BIA (59%), 40% stated that their business enterprises faced no risks at all. 56% of the 16% that were dissatisfied with their BIA status indicated that their business enterprises faced no risks at all. We also found that majority the of companies with weak supply chain network considered themselves to have no risks at all (58%), compared to 42% of the companies that had good supply chain network. The survey also found that 44% of respondents were satisfied with recovery time capability; similarly, the majority of respondents (54%) were confident that their BCM would yield competitive advantages.
Pricing Earthquake Catastrophe Options Based on the Mixed-Multinomial Tree Model
Authors: Wang Feixing ,   Schools of Mathematics and Physics, University of Science and Technology Beijing No.30, Xueyuan Road, Haidian District, Beijing 100083, P.R. China, Gu Xiaoling
Published: April 2016

The discrete time model we propose for option pricing, called the mixed-multinomial tree model (MMTM), extends the conventional multinomial tree model by assuming that both the number of branches of nodemand possible valuesuiare random variables during each period. The conventional multinomial tree model cannot be used to describe the accumulated loss process in earthquakes because earthquakes occur randomly and different main shocks may have different aftershocks. We therefore apply the MMTM to build an accumulated earthquake loss model in earthquake catastrophe options. We study option pricing for such a model and obtain a call option pricing formula.
Preliminary Results of Weather Radar Observations of Sakurajima Volcanic Smoke
Authors: Maki Masayuki ,   Research and Education Center for Natural Hazards, Kagoshima University  1-21-40 Korimoto, Kagoshima 890-0065, Japan, Iguchi Masato , Maesaka Takeshi , Miwa Takahiro , Tanada Toshikazu , Kozono Tomofumi , Momotani Tatsuya , Yamaji Akihiko , Kakimoto Ikuya ,   Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kagoshima, Japan,   National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Tsukuba, Japan,   Graduate school, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan,   Japan Weather Agency, Tokyo, Japan,   Mitsubishi Electric Co., Hyogo, Japan
Published: April 2016

Preliminary results of quantitative analysis of volcanic ash clouds observed over the Sakurajima volcano in Kagoshima, Japan, were obtained by using weather radar and surface instruments. The Ka-band Doppler radar observations showed the inner structure of a volcanic ash column every two minutes after an eruption. Operational X-band polarimetric radar provides information on three-dimensional ash fall amount distribution. The terminal fall velocity of ash particles was studied by using optical disdrometers, together with the main specifications of observation instruments.
Numerical Simulations of Volcanic Ash Plume Dispersal from Kelud Volcano in Indonesia on February 13, 2014
Authors: Tanaka Hiroshi L. ,   Center for Computational Sciences, University of Tsukuba Tsukuba 305-8577, Japan, Iguchi Masato , Nakada Setsuya ,   Sakurajima Volcano Research Center, Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University Kagoshima 891-1419, Japan,   Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo Tokyo 113-0032, Japan
Published: April 2016

In order to evaluate airborne ash densities, a real-time volcanic ash dispersion model, PUFF, is applied to the February 13, 2014 eruption of Kelud volcano in Indonesia. The emission rate of the ash mass from the vent is estimated based on the empirical formulae tested at Sakurajima volcano using ground deformation and seismic monitoring data.

According to the result of the PUFF model simulation, the circular shape of the anvil ash cloud 17 km in height extends during the first two hours over a radius of 200 km from the volcano. The core region within 50 km of the volcano shows an airborne ash density of 1000 mg/m3. Three hours after the initial eruption, the area with 100 mg/m$^bm 3$ extends 300 km to the west, covering Yogyakarta Airport. Due to low-level winds, Surabaya Airport to the northeast also becomes part of the area with 100 mg/m3. The result of the ash plume dispersal 7 hours into the eruption indicates that the entire island of Java is in the danger zone for commercial airliners, as ash exceeds 10 mg/m3. Although satellite images show that the ash plume is located only in the southern half of western Java, the simulation results quantitatively indicate much wider extents of the aircraft danger zone.
Investigation and Separation of Turbulent Fluctuations in Airborne Measurements of Volcanic Ash with Optical Particle Counters
Authors: Elíasson Jonas ,   Earthquake Research Institute, University of Iceland Austurvegur 2a, Selfoss, Iceland, Weber Konradin , Pálsson Andreas Vogel Thorgeir , Yoshitani Junichi , Miki Daisuke ,   Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan,   Environmental Measurement Techniques, University of Applied Sciences, Dü{u}sseldorf, Germany,   School of Science and Engineering, Reykjavik University, Reykjavik, Iceland
Published: April 2016

The science of measuring airborne volcanic ash concentrations supports research in such fields as atmospheric environmental science and the modeling of atmospheric pollution from volcanoes, and is thus very valuable to the aviation industry. These measurements show large scatter directly traceable to turbulent fluctuations responsible for diffusing volcanic dust. Before semistationary components in observations can be compared to each other or to simulation results, they must be separated from fluctuations. In the design of the separation process, however, neither seasonal or diurnal periodicity nor random disturbance with known properties exists to serve as a guideline. It has been suggested that fluctuations could be eliminated through repeated convolutions of a simple 3-point filter enough times. The number of convolutions is chosen from the change in the rate of increase of a special variability parameter. When semistationary concentrations are separated from fluctuations, their statistics are compared to turbulence parameters and the autocorrelation of the series. The method is demonstrated using three measurement series from Sakurajima, Japan measured in 2013. It is concluded that this new method is simple and trustworthy where knowledge and experience of the environmental parameters can be utilized to support the results. They indicate a variability of 40% in the relative fluctuations of the PM10 and around 20% of the PM2.5. The relative fluctuations may be considered completely random, but normally distributed rather than a white noise with an evenly distributed variance spectrum.
Measurements of Particle Distribution and Ash Fluxes in the Plume of Sakurajima Volcano with Optical Particle Counter
Authors: Elíasson Jonas ,   Earthquake Research Institute, University of Iceland Austurvegur 2a, Selfoss, Iceland, Yoshitani Junichi , Miki Daisuke , Weber Konradin , Bölke Christoph , Scharifi Emad ,   Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan,   Environmental Measurement Techniques, University of Applied Sciences, Düsseldorf, Germany
Published: April 2016

Volcanic eruptions have caused very costly disturbances of international air traffic. This problem has been dealt with by simulating the formation and migration of dangerous ash plumes. However, the results of the simulations have sometimes been too safe, producing ash clouds that are too large. This was especially the case for the North Atlantic in 2010 (Eyjafjallajökull) and 2011 (Grímsvötn). Since 2012, an international cooperation team led by the Disaster Prevention Research Institute (DPRI) of Kyoto University has conducted airborne measurements of volcanic ash concentrations in the plume from Mount Sakurajima in Kagoshima Prefecture, Japan. This volcano was chosen because of its frequent but limited eruptions, which allow close observation. These measurement campaigns have provided data showing gravitational flattening of the plume, a new and previously unknown dispersion process of volcanic plumes. A new and previously unknown fallout process, called streak fallout, also has been measured. Results concerning plume flux, concentration distributions, aerosol (PM10) content of the plume, and content of very fine particles (PM2.5 and PM1) are presented, and the ways by which the observational methods can be used to produce reliable initial data and boundary values for simulations of plume dispersion are discussed.
Modeling Human Behavior of Local Residents in the Aftermath of a Large Earthquake – Wide-Area Evacuation, Rescue and Firefighting in Densely Built-Up Wooden Residential Areas
Authors: Oki Takuya ,   Tokyo Institute of Technology 2-12-1-W8-10, O-okayama, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 152-8552, Japan, Osaragi Toshihiro
Published: April 2016

It is very important in disaster prevention planning to estimate the level of human damage after large earthquakes under various scenarios that takes into account the day of week, the time of the disaster, weather conditions, earthquake intensity, etc. There have been many previous studies based on the spatial characteristics of urban areas about evaluating protection against fires, evacuation risks, and the safety of evacuation routes to designated areas. However, no study so far has integrated models of property damage (building collapse, fire spread, and street blockage) and human behavior (rescue activities, firefighting activities, and wide-area evacuation behavior), and carries out simulations in order to analyze human damage in detail. In this paper, we present a survey of previous studies of the methods of evaluating urban-area characteristics, rescue and firefighting activities, and wide-area evacuation, all of which have been discussed as separate issues. We summarize the findings within the respective fields, their methods of evaluation and modeling, and identify their issues. Based on this survey, we point out that the construction of an integrated simulation model requires six important activities. They are to: 1) carry out evaluations on a microscopic scale at the block or street level; 2) use an evaluation index that allows a direct grasp of the expected level of human damage; 3) take into consideration many detailed and concrete disaster scenarios; 4) take into consideration the interactions among rescue participants, firefighting participants and wide-area evacuees, along with the effects of property damage; 5) incorporate the concept of time; and 6) set up comparative scenarios that allow the quantitative evaluation of the effects of various measures or policies. Therefore, it is necessary to construct a model based on the concept of multi-agent simulation (MAS).
Grasp of Disaster Situation and Support Need Inside Affected Area with Social Sensing – An Analysis of Twitter Data Before and After the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake Disaster Occurring –
Authors: Sato Shosuke ,   International Research Institute of Disaster Science (IRIDeS), Tohoku University   Aoba 468-1, Aramaki, Aoba, Sendai 980-0845, Japan, Hanaoka Kazumasa , Okumura Makoto , Koshimura Shunichi
Published: April 2016

There are increasing expectations that social sensing, especially the analysis of social media text as a source of information for COP (Common Operational Picture), is useful for decision-making about responses to disasters. This paper reports on a geo-information and content analysis of three million Twitter texts sampled from Japanese Twitter accounts for one month before and after the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake disaster. The results are as follows. 1) The number of Twitter texts that include geotag (latitude and longitude information) is too small for reliable analysis. However, a method of detecting the tweet’s location from the tweet’s text using GeoNLP (an automatic technology to tag geo-information from natural language text) is able to identify geo-information, and we have confirmed that many tweets were sent from stricken areas. 2) A comparison of Twitter data distribution before and after the disaster occurred does not identify clearly which areas were significantly affected by the disaster. 3) There were very few Twitter texts that included information about the damage in affected areas and their support needs.
Human Mobility Estimation Following Massive Disaster Using Filtering Approach
Authors: Sudo Akihito ,   Institute of Industrial Sience, the University of Tokyo 4-6-1 Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo, Japan, Kashiyama Takehiro , Yabe Takahiro , Kanasugi Hiroshi , Sekimoto Yoshihide ,   Department of Civil Engineering, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan,   Earth Observation Data Integration and Fusion Research Initiative, the University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Published: April 2016

Real-time estimation of people distribution immediately after a disaster is directly related to disaster reduction and is also highly beneficial in society. Recently, traffic estimation research has been actively performed using data assimilation techniques for observation data obtained from mobile phones. However, there has been no research on data assimilation technique using real-time gridded aggregated observation data obtained from mobile phones, which are available and can be used to estimate population flow and distribution in a metropolitan area during a large-scale disaster. In this research, population distribution in an urban area during a disaster was estimated using gridded aggregated observation data obtained from mobile phones, using particle filter. The experimental results indicated that the particle filters enabled high-precision real-time estimation in the Kanto district.
Object-Based Method for Estimating Tsunami-Induced Damage Using TerraSAR-X Data
Authors: Gokon Hideomi ,   Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo 4-6-1-Be604, Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505, Japan, Koshimura Shunichi , Matsuoka Masashi ,   International Research Institute of Disaster Science, Tohoku University, Sendai, Japan,   Graduate School of Science and Technology, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Yokohama, Japan
Published: April 2016

The object-based method we developed to estimate building damage uses high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (TerraSAR-X) data from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. The damage function we developed involves the relationship between changes in the sigma nought values of pre- and postevent TerraSAR-X data and the damage ratio of washed-away buildings. We confirmed that the function performed as expected by estimating the number of washed-away buildings in homogeneous areas, agreeing well with ground truth data verified by a Pearson fs correlation coefficient of 0.99. The same damage function applied at another test site yielded a Pearson's correlation coefficient of 0.98. These results are sufficient to ensure transferability. We then simplified and semiautomated these processes in an ArcGIS environment, estimating building damage in the city of Sendai within 26 minutes.