bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The Irish Atmospheric Simulation Chamber: a national facility for atmospheric sciences
Authors: Chandran Satheesh , Campos-Pineda Mixtli , Ben Brik Amir , Wenger John , Ruth Albert A.
Published: March 2024

The Irish Atmospheric Simulation Chamber (IASC) was established in the Centre for Research into Atmospheric Chemistry at University College Cork (UCC), Ireland to enable the study of fundamental atmospheric processes and to quantify parameters needed in air quality and climate models. This national research infrastructure consists of a custom-built chamber (~27 m3) made of Teflon FEP foil, supported in an aluminium frame, and surrounded by a temperature-controlled enclosure containing 140 UV lamps for experiments on light-driven reactions. Standard parameters such as temperature, pressure (absolute and differential), relative humidity, and CO2 mixing ratios are continuously monitored. The facility is also equipped with a range of commercial instruments for continuous, online measurements of atmospheric constituents including NOX (chemiluminescence detector), O3 (photometer) and particulate matter (scanning mobility particle sizer, SMPS). A time-of-flight chemical ionization mass spectrometer (ToF-CIMS), typically operated using I– or C6H6+ as the reagent ion, is used for detecting trace gases and particle phase species, especially organic compounds.At the core of the facility, however, is a selection of ultra-sensitive optical detector systems, which are based on cavity-enhanced absorption methodologies developed in UCC. The methodologies comprise cavity ring-down spectroscopy (CRDS) and incoherent broadband cavity-enhanced absorption spectroscopy (IBBCEAS) in conjunction with dispersive and high resolution Fourier Transform detection schemes. Target species that can be detected are NO2, NO3 radicals, HONO, glyoxal (CHOCHO), methylglyoxal (CH3COCHO), H2O, and CO2.With this suite of instrumentation, the IASC can derive much needed information and parameters to constrain predictive atmospheric models and improve forecasts. It enables detailed investigations of a wide range of atmospheric processes including chemical reactions of radicals, volatile organic compound oxidation, secondary pollutant formation, as well as secondary organic aerosol formation and ageing in day and night cycles.The IASC is an internationally recognized facility with involvement in European research and training networks such as EUROCHAMP-2020 and ATMO-ACCESS. The versatile and highly instrumented nature make the IASC an ideal test bed for the development, testing and benchmarking of new atmospheric monitoring technologies and sensors under controlled (not field) conditions. The current capabilities of IASC will be presented at the EGU conference and typical characterization experiments will be outlined to demonstrate some of its performance.This work was supported by Science Foundation Ireland (grants 21/FFP-A/8973 & 15/RI/3209).
Multi-purpose afforestation scenarios under climate change for carbon dioxide reduction 
Authors: Kraxner Florian , Schepaschenko Dmitry , Fuss Sabine , Krasovskiy Andrey , Shvidenko Anatoly , Kindermann Georg , Jo Hyun-Woo , Lee Woo-Kyun
Published: March 2024

This study aims at identifying the carbon dioxide reduction (CDR) potential of large-scale and multi-purpose afforestation/reforestation at the global level with special emphasis on the Mid-Latitude Region (MLR). Applying a combined remote sensing/GIS approach coupled with biophysical forest and disturbance modeling under various climate change scenarios, we identify potential afforestation locations, inter-alia on abandoned agricultural land and on areas burnt from wild land fires. With the help of IIASA’s biophysical global forestry model (G4M), we calculate the associated land-based CDR potentials through carbon sequestration in afforested biomass and through climate risk-resilient and sustainable forest management dedicated to the supply of bioenergy plants coupled with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) facilities. Finally, three promising scenarios have been identified including I) afforestation; II) reforestation; and III) BECCS. In all scenarios, priority is put on sustainable forest management and nature/biodiversity conservation. Forest modeling results have been combined with recent data sets which have been overlayed in order to provide a unique basis to estimate the land-based CDR technologies’ potential to mitigate climate change and contribute to reaching the goals of the Paris Agreement. In the case of afforestation, preliminary results indicate a total potential afforestation area greater than 1 billion ha.  The largest area potential for afforestation have been identified in the USA. Given the higher productivity (combined with large area available), Brazil is the country with the highest total CDR potential of close to 500 MtC/yr.
Measurement of friction in debris flows, floods, and intermediate flows
Authors: McArdell Brian , Hirschberg Jacob , Bartelt Perry
Published: March 2024

Many different rheological models describing the behavior of debris flows are available, yet there is no general agreement on the appropriate rheology for a given problem. Here we report on full-scale observations of friction in debris flows, which can be used to help constrain the selection of flow rheology. Using measurements from a large force plate (area = 8m2), we investigate the frictional behavior using the ratio of shear (s) to normal force (n) of debris flows recorded at the Illgraben debris flow observation station, in southwest Switzerland. Due to practical constraints the force plate is installed in a horizontal concrete structure in the channel bed, and not tilted to match the slope of the natural channel bed upstream of the force plate (slope S=0.08), which may induce a small deceleration of the flow, which we assume is negligible, especially for flows with large depths. Flow depth is recorded at the center of the force plate using either a laser sensor (point measurement) or radar sensor (average value). Debris flows are characterized with relatively large friction values (s/n ~0.15) at the front of the flows which are about twice as large as the slope of the channel bed. This result is consistent with ideas from the literature describing large friction at the flow front. Flood flows, in contrast, have frontal friction values (s/n ~0.1) approximately equal to the slope of the channel, indicating approximately steady and uniform flow over periods of 10’s of seconds.  Several transitional events have been recorded with properties intermediate between debris flows and flood flows, with corresponding s/n values also intermediate between debris flows and floods. These friction observations were recently incorporated into a debris flow model (Meyrat et al., 2023) which is capable of predicting the transition between debris-flows and glacial-lake outburst floods. While these results are promising, more research is necessary to further explore the controls on debris-flow friction, also for events characterized by multiple roll waves or erosion-depostion waves. Citation:Meyrat, G., Munch, J., Cicoira, A., McArdell, B., Müller, C. R., Frey, H., & Bartelt, P. (2023). Simulating glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs) with a two-phase/layer debris flow model considering fluid-solid flow transitions. Landslides. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-023-02157-w.
Land-sea mapping and deformation kinematics in the Cape Gris-Nez fault zone (Dover Strait, Eastern Channel) 
Authors: Aboubacar Dibousse , Averbuch Olivier , Gaullier Virginie
Published: March 2024

The Dover Strait, at the transition between the Eastern English Channel and the North Sea, lies on a complex faulted bedrock, making it a potential seismic risk area. Resulting from recent periglacial processes, it cross-cuts the geological structures inherited from the major tectonic deformations that affected the West European margin at the Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous (extension and subsidence due to the propagation of the opening of the North Atlantic Ocean) and during the Cenozoic (compression causing the inversion of basins linked to the African-Eurasian convergence). Cape Gris-Nez is one of the most striking features of the fault system bordering the inverted Weald-Boulonnais basin. The Sirène beach, which has been heavily cleared of sand over the past 20 years, reveals the complexity of the folded and faulted geological structures associated with the development of this deformation zone. Over the last few years, detailed structural surveys have been carried out on land, using GNSS layer-to-layer mapping, and at sea, using very high-resolution SPARKER seismic profiles, providing an overall land-sea map of this fault zone. This first-rate mapping was recently supplemented by photogrammetric surveys by drone at very high spatial resolution (5 cm) making it possible to obtain an ortho-mosaic and a digital terrain model of the foreshore and cliffs of Cap Gris Nez. The interpretation of these very high-resolution images, adopted in a new structural survey campaign, leads to an optimization of the mapping of structures and a better understanding of the geometry and kinematics of deformations at the fault zone preliminary data for a better definition of seismic risk in the sector.
Critical raw materials from geothermal fluids: Potential in the North German Basin
Authors: Regenspurg Simona , Thomas Anika , Stammeier Jessica A. , Schiepersky Ferry , Scheck-Wenderoth Magdalena , Kieling Katrin
Published: March 2024

The EU-funded CRM-geothermal project aims to integrate the extraction of critical raw materials and geothermal heat from deep geothermal reservoirs. Within the project, extraction technologies and their economic and environmental feasibility are tested and evaluated across several geological regions in Europe and East Africa.  The focus of this study is the North German Basin, a typical sedimentary basin that initiated rifting in the late Carboniferous period, accumulating various sediments to a thickness of up to 10–12 km. Located in central Europe it stretches over an area from Poland to the Netherlands, traversing across North Germany.The succession is beginning with Permian volcanic rocks at the base, and overlain by alternating layers of mud-, silt- sandstones and evaporates; some of which have already been identified for geothermal energy extraction (e.g. Neustadt-Glewe, Schwerin, and Potsdam). Up to now, the extraction of lithium (Li) has not been explored, despite the existence of elevated Li concentrations occurring in formation fluids of the Rotliegend and Bunter sandstone.In this study the potential content of selected critical and valuable elements (Li, Sr, Cu) and their availability in various formations of the North German Basin was assessed. For this purpose, cuttings from different formation rocks from one deep well (GrSk04/05; 4000 m depth) were first analyzed for bulk concentrations of these elements. Most promising samples (with Li up to 74 ppm, Cu up to 214 ppm, and Sr with up to 2334 ppm) were selected from Muschelkalk, Bunter sandstone (Dethfurt), Zechstein (Ohre), Permian Rotliegend sandstone (Hannover), and volcanic rocks)  for a sequential extraction. This method provides indication on the type of elemental bonding within minerals, allowing to estimate the availability and sustainability of the CRM in the respective formation fluids.
Environmental Monitoring using Wireless Communication Networks: Current Status and Future Directions
Authors: Uijlenhoet Remko
Published: March 2024

Microwave links from cellular communication networks have been proposed as an opportunistic source of environmental (notably atmospheric) data more than two decades ago. The first scientific studies demonstrating the potential of this ground-based remote sensing technique for precipitation monitoring, in particular for areas around the world were dedicated rainfall observation networks are sparse, were published more than 15 years ago. Since then, a small but dedicated community of scientists and engineers working at universities, national meteorological services, consulting companies, mobile network operators and telecommunication equipment manufacturers has been making significant progress in turning this promise into a reality. In the meantime, numerous papers and reports have been published, conference presentations have been given and courses have been delivered. However, real-time access to high-resolution environmental information from commercial microwave link networks over large continental areas is still a dream. How far have we come after more than 20 years of research and development? What does the future have in stall for the geosciences and their applications? What should be done to turn this dream into an operational reality? This presentation will attempt to provide some preliminary answers to these questions by reviewing the current status and future directions in the field of environmental monitoring using wireless communication networks.
Social and environmental benefits of regenerative design
Authors: Boskovic Stanislava , Giambona Jeni , Mijic Ana , Baldock Doug
Published: March 2024

Cities are major contributors to climate change through greenhouse gas emissions, notwithstanding other sources of pollution, conditioning planet health and citizens wellbeing. The increase in urban growth and urbanization results in an expansion of urban hazards - including water scarcity, air pollution and other environmental issues. Therefore, to respond to the need for new urban development, it is necessary to introduce a new systems-based approach able not only to maintain the existing environmental indicators, but to guarantee their improvement. To address this complexity, in this work we explore Regenerative Design (RD) definition, scale and proprieties to rethink the ecological challenges we face in a holistic and systematic manner.  Regenerative Design approach, in this study, aspires to demonstrate that order to achieve net-positive outcomes and address social and ecological issues, it is necessary to move beyond the only intention of environmental harm mitigation. The regenerative design process leads to design processes that utilize the insights and relationships of ecological systems of the place as the basis for projects in which human actions positively contribute to the self-healing properties of nature. Therefore, an integration of nature-inspired solutions throughout the design process is required.This study evidence that a transformative shift towards regenerative design requires not only a change in way of thinking and practice, but also in worldviews and values. It starts with the awareness the way we approach analysis of a design process might not be regenerative. Therefore, there is need for systems change to tackle root causes of degeneration, where the context and the place-based design decisions are of crucial importance.
Simulating Saline Permafrost and Cryopeg Evolution Using a Coupled Heat and Salt Diffusion Model
Authors: Angelopoulos Michael , Overduin Pier Paul , Miesner Frederieke , Boike Julia , Krautblatter Michael , Westermann Sebastian
Published: March 2024

Saline permafrost is primarily found in marine deposits beneath shallow shelf seas and can often extend several kilometres inland from present Arctic coastlines. On land, saline permafrost forms when previously submerged marine sediments are exposed to the atmosphere, either through a sea level regression or post-glacial rebound. Cryopegs are perennially cryotic layers or pockets within permafrost that remain unfrozen due to their high salt content. While heat and salt flow models have been applied to study subsea permafrost degradation, adapting these models to terrestrial saline permafrost remains a significant gap in model development. We utilize a version of the CryoGrid modelling suite that couples heat and salt diffusion. This enables us to simulate the formation of saline permafrost and the development of cryopegs during transitions from sub-aquatic to sub-aerial conditions. As the freezing front descends, ice forms in the sediment matrix, expulsing salts into the remaining unfrozen liquid water at sub-zero temperatures. The increased unfrozen porewater salt concentration gradient increases the rate at which salt diffuses downwards into the sediment column. Over time the thermal gradient weakens, potentially allowing a more effective salt build-up ahead of the freezing front.
Sedimentological evidence for an early deglaciation in the Weddell Sector at ~19 ka
Authors: Bollen Michael , Müller Juliane , Gutjahr Marcus , Jaccard Samuel
Published: March 2024

Existing marine sedimentological constraints on the timing of deglaciation in the Weddell Sector are sparse, owing to the combination of inaccessibility due to thick sea ice, and chronological difficulties typical of Antarctic shelf sediments. Here, we present new results from near the calving line in the Hughes Trough, located in the central-southern Weddell Sea. Ramped pyrolysis 14C dating was used to determine a robust chronology from the 5.0 m long sediment core, PS111_53. The core preserves a full glaciomarine sequence from subglacial, sub-ice shelf, and open marine / polynya environments. The sedimentological transition interpreted to be formed at the grounding zone during ice shelf retreat was dated to 18.2 – 19.0 ka, indicating that grounded ice retreat was underway by this time. Further, the sedimentation rate was drastically reduced at ~6 ka, indicating that the oceanographic and glaciological regimes of the continental shelf may have changed at this time.The proposed timing of glacial mass loss is well placed in the context of recent studies from the continental ice sheet and off-shelf marine sediments, which have suggested that a significant ice mass loss event from the Weddell Sector of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS) may have occurred early in the deglaciation. A synchronous timing of deglaciation between the Weddell Sector of the AIS and Laurentide Ice Sheets during MWP-1A0 points towards bi-polar tele-connections.
Unveiling and communicating climate change by near-real-time attribution and projection of the current weather based on nudged storyline simulations
Authors: Goessling Helge , Athanase Marylou , Sánchez-Benítez Antonio , Monfort Eva , Jung Thomas
Published: March 2024

Attribution and projection of climate change by event-based storylines has recently been established as a powerful tool that complements the well-established probabilistic approach. Event-based storylines which nudge the observed atmospheric winds in climate models have been particularly helpful in isolating the thermodynamic component of climate change. The approach is characterised by a high signal-to-noise ratio because differences due to internal variability are effectively removed by imposing (via nudging) the same large-scale atmospheric circulation in different climates. Nudging-based storylines make it possible to unveil the “climate change signal of the day” for the actually observed weather, be it an extreme or an every-day event, which comes with a great potential for climate change communication. Here we take the approach one step further and present our efforts to provide nudging-based climate storylines in near-real-time. This includes not only the automated extension of storyline simulations on a daily basis, but also the dissemination via an online tool that allows both scientific and non-scientific users to explore the “climate change signal of the day” for a number of relevant variables in useful and intuitive ways. While the omission of possible dynamical changes and the reliance on a single model need to be communicated as clear limitations, we envisage that tools like our prototype may become an important piece of the future dissemination portfolio of climate change information.
The LOESS project to boost soil health literacy across Europe: The case of Italy
Authors: Peli Marco , Dada Arianna , Barisani Francesca , Ventura Vera , Pezzagno Michèle , Barontini Stefano , Grossi Giovanna
Published: March 2024

The Horizon Europe project LOESS ‘Literacy boost through an Operational Educational Ecosystem of Societal actors on Soil health’ officially started in June 2023 involving twenty partner organizations in fifteen countries across Europe, lead by the WILA Bonn Science Shop. The final goal of the project is to raise awareness on the importance of soil and of its functions and to increase soil literacy across Europe. To do so, the first step of the project activity is designed to map and connect multiple actors in Communities of Practice (CoPs) at the national level, and engage them to provide an overview of the current level of soil related knowledge and teaching programmes and materials, in order to identify the gap between this material and the educational needs amongst different levels of the society (from pupils to students to citizens).The Italian chapter is led by two university research groups with different expertise (civil and environmental engineering at the University of Brescia on one hand and social sciences at the University of Sassari on the other) and one NGO (Controvento) whose mission is children not-formal education. The Italian CoP, led by the University of Brescia, is composed of 62 members from both the higher education and the research community, as well as from the primary and secondary education levels (teachers and pupils), from the productive sectors (farmers and spatial planners), from the politics world (local administrators) and from the civil society (NGOs and associations).This contribution presents the activities performed so far, viz the stakeholder mapping, the creation of the CoP and its first meetings and the community-based participatory activity which was organized on the World Soil Day 2023.
Analysis of the quasi-two-year variation of the Zapiola Anticyclone basedon the reanalysis data and drifter trajectories
Authors: runjie zhou , Wang Tianyu , Du Yan
Published: March 2024

Zapiola anticyclone (ZA) is an anticyclonic circulation trapped by a seamount about 1200 m in height named Zapiola Rise (ZR). The ZA is adjacent to energetic flows of the South Atlantic Ocean, such as the Brazil/Malvinas Confluence (BMC) and the Antarctic Circumpolar Circulation (ACC). The interplay among the circulations makes the dynamic processes of the ZA complex and variable. Based on the reanalysis data and drifter observations, this study mainly aims to investigate the influence of a strong flow field outside of the seamount on variations of the ZA. Results show that the vorticity of the ZA has a significant quasi-two-year variation, which is an independent eigenmode in the basin. The advection of the potential vorticity over the bottom topography from the southern boundary plays the most significant role in controlling the vorticity variations of the ZA. Drifter trajectories also confirm the importance of the flow field in the south of the seamount. The statistical results of the drifter trajectories show that the transport process of the southern boundary flow field has the most significant effect on the dynamic processes of the ZA. It is worth mentioning that the results obtained using the dataset of the reanalysis are limited by its validity in the region.
Predicting water resources at Swiss national scale: the more models the better?
Authors: Schaefli Bettina , Horton Pascal , Kauzlaric Martina , Zappa Massimiliano
Published: March 2024

Hydro-climatic diversity is a key challenge for national-scale water governance. Switzerland represents, with this respect, an extremely interesting case study: This small (40’000 km2) country encloses a wide range of hydro-climatic regimes (with precipitation ranging from 300 mm/year to > 2500 mm/year) and provides water to several large European rivers (Rhône, Rhine, Danube, Po). Over the years, an impressive number of hydrological models have been specifically developed or implemented for this country by national or regional authorities and by academia. The purpose of the models ranges from water resources and energy assessment to natural hazard management and real-time forecasting. Most existing models focus on the individual catchment scale, with few models extending to the regional and country scale. For real-time flood forecasting, there is a recent effort from the authorities to reduce the number of models; for national drought forecasting, a single model is used at the national scale, but for selected catchments, the simulations of 11 hydrological models are available for stakeholders. Existing climate change impact and water availability predictions (mostly developed at research institutes and universities) rely on collections of models applied at the individual catchment scale, with divergent results. Accordingly, despite the impressive amount of models being developed and implemented in this country, a coherent, national-scale strategy for hydrological modelling is missing; there is no general agreement on best practices among (academic) hydrologic modellers and the access of stakeholders to modelling results or modelling resources is heterogeneous. In this presentation, we discuss what we learned from the past, future challenges for national-scale hydrological modelling and possible ways forward.
Precessional Climate Cyclicity on the Iberian margin: Miocene-recent
Authors: Herbert Timothy , Abrantes Fatima , Brooks Hannah , Flores Jose-Abel , Hodell David , McManus Jerry , Mitsunaga Bryce , Palone Celeste , Pang Xioalei , Wu Jiawang , Yu Jimin , Zarikian Carlos ,   Expeditiion 397 Scientific Party
Published: March 2024

IODP Expedition 397 recovered a continuous record of precessionally-paced lithological cycles to the base of the recovered section (~9.55 Ma) at Site U1587.  On board ship, three intervals were selected for multi-disciplinary dissection of the cycles in time windows comprising three precessional cycles each ((early Pleistocene 2.284-2.345 Ma, late Pliocene 3.427-3.496 Ma, and late Miocene 5.638-5.5707 Ma).  These three intervals are grounded in continuous XRF scanning that allows for a reliable astrochronology based largely on precessional variability. Carbonate cyclicity follows northern hemisphere precession throughout high carbonate content associated with high northern hemisphere summer insolation.  The cycles cannot be explained solely by changes in carbonate production or preservation, as the clay-rich phases of the cycles are often expanded relative to the carbonate-rich phases.  Sea surface temperature (SST) recorded by alkenone biomarkers shows fluctuations in tandem with the carbonate cycles.  For the Pliocene and Pleistocene, higher carbonate correlates to warmer SST and interglacial conditions as inferred from stable isotope measurements.  The pattern flips in the Messinian test interval, with high carbonate associated with colder and more glacial climate.  Clay mineralogy shows cyclic fluctuations associated with changes in riverine and eolian inputs.  High illite (high dust?) corresponds to high carbonate content in the Miocene and Pleistocene test intervals, while the opposite is observed for the Pliocene.   An abrupt change in cycle spacing near the terminal Messinian likely records a tectonic event that perhaps influenced transport and deposition of the detrital components.
Treatment of Modern Global Ocean and Atmospheric Tide Atlases in Precise Orbit Determination
Authors: Klemann Volker , Sulzbach Roman , Kehm Alexander , Blossfeld Mathis , Hart-Davis Michael , Dobslaw Henryk , Mayer-Guerr Torsten
Published: March 2024

Tidal variability originating from the orbital dynamics of the Sun and the Moon can be observed in virtually all subsystems of the Earth. The evoked tidal phenomena in the atmosphere, the solid Earth, and the world oceans cause a large-scale redistribution of masses, primarily on daily and sub-daily time scales. The implied tidal variability impacts geodetic measurements. For example, the induced mass transport induces temporal changes in the Earth's gravity field which impact the orbits of artificial satellites. However, observations of a single satellite are generally insufficient to precisely estimate tidal signatures, resulting in a decreased accuracy of the Precise Orbit Determination (POD) of near-Earth satellites. Therefore, a priori prediction of tidal signals, especially ocean tidal signatures, by tidal atlases is necessary to exploit the full potential of geodetic data sets.The most accurate ocean tide atlases are produced by incorporating satellite altimetry observations into the modeling process. However, limitations arising from the ambient signal-to-noise level have hindered their ability to accurately estimate small signals associated with minor tidal constituents. For those minor constituents, data-unconstrained ocean tide models can yield valuable constraints. For processing satellite altimetry data, initial experiments have been undertaken to integrate empirical and numerical models, aiming to deliver comprehensive tidal corrections (Hart-Davis et al., 2021, doi: 10.3390/rs13163310). It has been proposed that experimentation is necessary across all geodetic applications to determine the preferred model for specific tidal constituents and the optimal approach for merging models. This also includes the possibility of including minor ocean tides only implicitly, by deriving their admittance function from suitable neighboring tidal constituents.
A new peatland probability map for Flanders, northern Belgium highlighting the importance of peat buried in the subsoil for C storage.
Authors: Verstraeten Gert , Swinnen Ward , Ottoy Sam , Vancampenhout Karen
Published: March 2024

In present-day global to regional peatland maps, Belgium is mostly a white spot showing that almost no peat is present. Nevertheless, many detailed soil and sediment stratigraphical studies have pointed out that much peat is present, both at the surface, but also in buried positions in the immediate subsoil. Here we present a new peatland map for the northern part of Belgium, Flanders, using a combination of an extensive database on soil/sediment profile descriptions with random forest digital soil mapping techniques to present for the first time a high-resolution (50m) peat probablity map.  In a first step, information about peat was extracted from a series of existing datasets for Flanders that contain information about peat. These observations include soil profile and sediment coring descriptions and this for three different depth-zones: peat at the surface, peat within the soil profile (up to 1.5 m depth) and peat in the deeper subsoil (1.5 - 10 m depth). This information was then harmonized and merged into a peat database of 61422 point observations. Through digital soil mapping techniques, including random forest tools, peatland maps for each depth zone were created based on environmental data. In order to include uncertainty in the maps, seven peat probability classes were mapped instead of a binary map, and these peat probability classes were finally retained after validation with the original peat observations. These classes represent the likelihood of peat occurrence for three depth zones and reflect the spatial variation and the chance of peat occurrence in each 50 by 50 m spatial unit. Comparison of the peat point database with the national soil maps or ecological habitat maps shows that these are a poor predictor of peat presence in Flanders and performs much worse compared to the new peat probality map. The peatland maps shows that river valleys in flat, sandy landscapes are the most imporant landform units where peat is surfacing at present, but that river valleys in hilly loes areas charecterised by intense sedimentation as well as the coastal plains have much more peat in the subsoil. Similarly, the amount of C stored in buried peatlands is much larger than in active peatlands, with values up to 2000 t C/ha for some river valleys.  Given that these buried peatlands are threatened by drainage, the new peatland map offers policy makers an important tool to identify target areas for restoration projects such as reversing drainage and rewetting of floodplains. 
Challenges in quantifying physical risk to assets globally
Authors: Stables Joe , Reverly Graham , Brennan James , Woodhouse Sally , Leach Nicholas , Ramsamy Laura , Sullivan Patricia , Davies Jonathan
Published: March 2024

As the physical processes of our world change, the landscape of risk has changed with it. At Climate X, we provide high-quality data to the financial sector so that evolving risks to global portfolios can be quantified. A crucial element of this is the physical risk from events, including extreme weather events.Traditionally risk assessments have been carried out at an asset level on small scales, with a dedicated team spending days on tens of assets. The high price and slow turnaround makes this unfeasible for large scale operations. We provide an alternative, leveraging open source datasets and research to estimate the physical risk to over half a billion buildings worldwide. This talk will highlight some challenges of working at this scale, and illustrate our approaches to resolving them.
Mid-Latitude Controls on Monsoon Onset and Progression (the MiLCMOP project)
Authors: Turner Andrew , Volonte Ambrogio , Deoras Akshay , Menon Arathy
Published: March 2024

The monsoon onset typically starts in southern India by 1 June, taking around 6 weeks to cover the country.  During the monsoon, intraseasonal variations give rise to active and break periods in the rains.  Being able to better predict the monsoon onset, its progression, and active and break events would be of great interest to society.  The onset timing is already known to be influenced by tropical intraseasonal variability, but new research has shown that the mid-latitudes exert a powerful control, the full extent of which is not properly quantified or understood. The MiLCMOP project aims to answer the following: (1) How are the pace and steadiness of monsoon progression affected by interactions with the extratropics? (2) What are the mechanisms of extratropical control on monsoon progression and variability? (3) How do the causal extratropical and tropical drivers of monsoon progression offset or reinforce each other? Our initial work has tested a new hypothesis that monsoon progression can be described as a “tug-of-war” between tropical and extratropical airmasses.  This “tug-of-war” is unsteady, with a back and forth of the two airmasses before the moist tropical flow takes over for the season.  We demonstrate this for a case study of the 2016 season for India, while also drawing analogies with other monsoon regions, such as for the East Asian monsoon, in which we show the competition between extratropical and tropical flows in establishing the Mei Yu front as it progresses across China.Current activities revolve around the identification of statistical relationships between monsoon onset and progression and perturbations to the subtropical westerly jet, including blocking anticyclones, meridionally propagating troughs and cyclonic features near the Tibetan Plateau.  Additional focus is also devoted to the relationship between the monsoon advancement and the strength, extent and orientation of the intrusion of mid-tropospheric dry air flowing towards India from westerly and northwesterly quadrants.Other methods will include use of vorticity budgets and Lagrangian feature tracking in case studies of fast and slow onsets, to suggest the dominant mechanisms by which extratropical drivers affect monsoon onset and progression.  Model experiments will help isolate these mechanisms.  Finally, novel causal inference techniques will help disentangle the effects of extratropical drivers from those in the tropics. 
Unfolding responses in the global ocean and land carbon sinks and atmospheric CO2 to changing emissions with the large ensemble future projections with interactive carbon cycle.
Authors: Ilyina Tatiana , Li Hongmei , Ramme Lennart , Li Chao
Published: March 2024

CO2 emission-driven simulations are becoming a priority way of running Earth system model simulations of climate change as they directly link Earth system responses to climate policies. Also large ensemble simulations have been identified as a key tool to quantify effects of internal climate variability in the Earth system. We ran a large ensemble of emission-driven climate change projections in MPI-ESM with various CMIP6 emission scenarios. Our simulations produce a realistic temporal and spatial evolution of atmosphric CO2, as well as ocean and land carbon sinks. An increased seasonal cycle in all carbon cycle compartments is projected in future simulations. Ongoing work focuses on discerning responses of the ocean and land carbon sinks to changing emissions. Thereby, we find that changes in atmospheric carbon are asymmetric to CO2 emissions across various scenario pathways. Furthermore, temperature continues to increase after CO2 emission mitigation. In our simulations, under negative emissions, the ocean and land shift from being sink to source after 2100. In particular, for the ocean carbon sink evolution, the regions which acted as a sink for anthropogenic CO2 in the 20th century, remain sinks also during the 21st century. However, the major carbon uptake shifts from the North Atlantic to the Southern Ocean and much of the additional carbon is then stored in the south-west Pacific. In the 22nd century, it is mostly the North Atlantic that shifts towards less uptake of CO2 and from which dissolved inorganic carbon is transported away, while the Barents Sea and WeddelSea keep taking up more CO2 than during pre-industrial times, and parts of the ocean in the southern hemisphere keep accumulating carbon. Air-land CO2 fluxes overlap among different scenarios emphasizing the substantial role of internal climate variability.
Exploring the climate influence on sardine and sardinella species in northwest Africa from a novel end-to-end model strategy
Authors: López-Parages Jorge , Sánchez-Garrido Jose Carlos
Published: March 2024

Canary Upwelling System (CUS) is, together with California, Humboldt, and Benguela, one of the four main Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) across the globe. In particular, small pelagic fishes (hereinafter SPF) dominate the marine biomass in EBUS where they represent a vital intermediate connection between plankton and large predatory species. Regarding the CUS, SPF constitute in weight close to 70% of the total landings of northwest African countries, being the Sardine pilchardus (hereinafter sardine) and the Sardinella aurita (hereinafter sardinella) the dominant SPF species in terms of abundance. The latter, for instance, is a primary source of animal protein in Senegal.
However, the absence of systematic observations of sardine and sardinella across northwest Africa largely constraint our understanding of how the environmental variability impacts the abundance and distribution of these species. In this work a novel end-to-end (here climate-to-fish) model-based strategy, including explicit representation of sardine and sardinella dynamics within a common model framework, has been designed. With this approach the target species can compete and exploit the same ecosystem, allowing a consistent comparison of their respective responses to the environment. The resulting unified model for both sardine and sardinella allows us to better understand several links with well-known climate modes such as NAO and ENSO, which have been described by the authors in previous single-species-based analyses.
Ground Surface Deformation in the Niger-Delta Basin Caused by Hydrocarbon Exploration: First Results from Satellite InSAR Surveys
Authors: Uyo Imeime , Motagh Mahdi , Haghshenas Haghighi Mahmud
Published: March 2024

The Niger Delta basin located at the apex of the Gulf of Guinea on the west African coast has a vast deposit of hydrocarbon from which Nigeria’s oil and gas is derived. Although the export of oil and gas resources from this region has significantly improved the nation’s economy over the years, activities associated with hydrocarbon exploration have a significant impact on the land surface among other environmental detriments. If the benefits of hydrocarbon exploration and production must be realized in tandem with the environment, understanding the magnitude and nature of surface deformation within the production zones is crucial.In this study, we present first results of InSAR-derived spatial and temporal variations in surface deformations over the oil production fields within the Niger Delta Basin. The mean deformation velocity maps and time-series of displacements for measurement points are used to assess rates of ground deformation.Sentinel-1 C-band SAR data acquired between 2014 and 2023 are analyzed using both Persistent Scatterer Interferometry (PSI) and Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) InSAR techniques to assess deformation over oil and gas fields. We utilized the Stanford Method for Persistent Scatterer (StaMPS) technique for PSI processing and the MintPy package for SBAS analysis. Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar Scientific Environment (ISCE) developed by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory is used to generate the interferograms. The findings of the study will reveal the rate of subsidence and uplift in the line-of-sight (LOS) direction over the active production oil/gas wells within the Niger Delta basin.The findings of this study would be an invaluable input in decision-making for the benefit of affected communities and other stakeholders in the oil and gas industry. Monitoring subsidence helps to prevent hazards, ensures operational safety, and supports sustainable resource management in the affected areas.
Analysis of water mass transformations and the spurious thermohaline overturning circulation in numerical ocean models
Authors: Klingbeil Knut , Henell Erika , Banerjee Tridib , Burchard Hans , Danilov Sergey
Published: March 2024

Numerical models have become an important tool for investigating the oceans heat and salt contents. The large-scale thermohaline overturning circulation in the world ocean is directly linked to the transformation of water masses caused by small-scale diapycnal mixing, which is parameterized in models. However, in addition to this physically justified "physical mixing", numerical transport schemes rely on additional "numerical mixing" for stability reasons. Thus, the simulated overturning circulation in ocean models is strongly affected by this spurious mixing.Diagnostics of spurious mixing in terms of local tracer variance decay offer a detailed analysis of water mass transformations (WMT). Vice versa, analysis methods for WMT can be used to deduce information about the effects of mixing. In contrast to direct mixing diagnostics based on discrete variance decay (DVD) in geographical space, the WMT analysis framework is based on a mapping to tracer space, where diatracer fluxes that quantify the WMT can directly be diagnosed. Recently, a new local framework was derived, which combines the classical WMT framework with the local DVD analysis (Klingbeil & Henell, 2023). The derived analytical relations between dia-surface fluxes and mixing were demonstrated in an isohaline framework by Henell et al. (2023) [see corresponding submission to this session].We will present how this methodology can be transferred to the world ocean in order to diagnose local diapycnal mixing and to quantify the spurious contribution to the simulated thermohaline overturning circulation in ocean models. In particular, the extension to density space requires the consistent quantification of density DVD, which is challenging in numerical models with prognostic equations for salinity and temperature and a non-linear equation of state. Henell, E., H. Burchard, U. Gräwe, K. Klingbeil (2023) Spatial composition of the diahaline overturning circulation in a fjord-type, non-tidal estuarine system. Journal of Geophysical Research (Oceans). https://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2023JC019862.Klingbeil, K. and E. Henell (2023) A Rigorous Derivation of the Water Mass Transformation Framework, the Relation between Mixing and Diasurface Exchange Flow, and Links to Recent Theories in Estuarine Research. Journal of Physical Oceanography. https://doi.org/10.1175/JPO-D-23-0130.1.
Long-Term Trends and Drivers of Hailstorms in Switzerland
Authors: Wilhelm Lena , Martius Olivia , Schröer Katharina , Schwierz Cornelia
Published: March 2024

Climate change affects the severity and frequency of extreme meteorological events, including hailstorms. In this regard, it is imperative to understand the factors driving the intra- and interannual variability of hailstorms. In Switzerland, this remains insufficiently understood. To address this knowledge gap, our study conducts a long-term analysis to identify potential drivers and precursors of Swiss hailstorm variability. Due to the lack of long-term data on Swiss hailstorms, we developed statistical models reconstructing hail days from 1959 to 2022, utilizing radar-based hail observations and environmental data from ERA-5. Our hailday time series shows a statistically significant positive trend in yearly hail days in both southern and northern Switzerland. This trend is mainly attributed to heightened atmospheric instability and moisture content evident in recent decades' ERA-5 data. Noteworthy natural variability is observed in both regions. To delve into the large-scale mechanisms influencing Swiss hail activity, our study uses composites to explore potential drivers and precursors. Those include soil moisture conditions, sea surface temperature anomalies, large-scale variability patterns (Piper and Kunz 2017), central European weather types (e.g., Rohrer et al. 2018), cold fronts (Schemm et al. 2015, 2016), and atmospheric blocks (e.g. Barras et al. 2021). 
Partitioning of evaporation into interception and transpiration for the overstory, understory, and forest floor in a coniferous forest in the Netherlands
Authors: Vis Gijs , van der Molen Michiel , Luger Maxine , Coenders-Gerrits Miriam
Published: March 2024

Forests play a significant role in altering precipitation patterns by interception and transpiration. Interception causes a redistribution and (mostly) a reduction of the plant available water, which has direct feedback on the transpiration. Additionally, most forests have an overstory, an understory, and a forest floor, which makes this feedback mechanism even more complex to unravel. In this study we aim to partition total evaporation into interception and transpiration for the overstory, understory, and forest floor for a coniferous forest in The Netherlands.At the Ruisdael Observatory Loobos, an eddy covariance system on top of a 38-meter-high tower measures total evaporation of the forest. Along this tower, vapour pressure deficit is probed at 11 different heights. Net radiation is measured at ground level and the top of the tower. By applying the Bowen Ratio Energy Balance - method (BREB) between the different sensors, we can partition the total evaporation flux above and below the overstory. Additionally, fiber optic cables are installed along the tower, where one cable measures the air temperature over the height and another cable, which has a wet cloth, the wet bulb temperature. By applying BREB, the fiber optic cables will provide a near-continuous total evaporation profile from the forest floor to far above the canopy. To partition evaporation into interception and transpiration, we will make use of leaf wetness sensors by assuming that transpiration only occurs when the leaves or needles are dry. To verify this assumption, we also installed a rain gauge above the canopy and several gauges below to measure throughfall.Having multiple instruments to measure the different evaporation components, allows us to partition total evaporation into interception and transpiration for the different layers and cross-validate it. This poster combines previous experimental research into an integrated approach. The set-up is outlined and first results using data from the summer of 2023 and spring of 2024 are presented.