NBU KEY RATE: CONSEQUENCES AND FEASIBILITY OF FURTHER REDUCTION
Authors:   National Institute for Strategic Studies, Hladkyh Dmytro , LYUBICH Oleksandr ,   SESE “The Academy of Financial Management”
Published: May 2024

Introduction. The purpose of the latest increase in the key rate from 10% to 25% in June 2022 is the following: protection of savings and income of individuals in national currency; increasing attractiveness of hryvnia-denominated assets; easing the pressure of excess liquidity on the foreign exchange market; strengthening the ability of the NBU to ensure exchange rate stability and streamline inflationary processes during the war. The increase in the key rate was also supposed to increase the yield on domestic government loan bonds and deposit certificates of the National Bank of Ukraine (NBU), rates on line deposits in the national currency, and the cost of servicing hryvnia loans for legal entities and individuals. Over a period of up to 15 months, the key rate remained at the same level of 25%. As the dynamics of inflation faded, the regulator started a cycle of gradual easing of monetary policy. allows to analyze the intermediate results of such a reduction. Reporting of the financial and external sectors of the economy published by the NBU and supervisory statistics as of December 1, 2023 allow to analyze the intermediate results of the reduction. Problem Statement. Determining the preliminary consequences and justifying the expediency of further gradual reduction of the NBU key rate aimed at overcoming the main problems of the monetary and credit system of Ukraine in the conditions of martial law. The purpose is the analysis of the main intermediate results of the gradual reduction of the key rate in Ukraine, which directly affect the performance of its key functions by the monetary and credit system of Ukraine, and justification of the most urgent state measures aimed at overcoming the current negative trends in the monetary sphere. Methods. General scientific and special methods are used: analysis, synthesis, grouping, description, comparison, theoretical generalization and abstract-logical. Results. The key preliminary consequences of the gradual reduction of the key rate in Ukraine are analyzed, in particular: the dynamics of refinancing attracted by banks, bank investments in NBU deposit certificates, investments of the regulator and banks in domestic government loan bonds (OVDPs), corporate and retail lending, bank deposits of households and corporations by terms and currencies, individual indicators of the foreign exchange market. Conclusions. The key positive consequences of the key rate reduction are: gradual recovery of banks' credit activity; reorientation of banks' investments from the purchase of NBU deposit certificates to increasing investments in OVDPs, which made it possible to stop emission financing of the budget deficit by the NBU; maintaining a positive yield on term deposits in the national currency, which stimulates the population to further increase the volume of bank deposits. Instead, the practice of sterilizing the "excess" liquidity of banking institutions through their purchase of overnight and three-month deposit certificates of the NBU continues and and provokes a further increase in the volume of excess liquidity of the banking system due to a fairly high level of profitability of this instrument. Expected conservation of moderate rates of inflation in the short term determines the expediency of a further gradual decrease in the level of the key rate, provided that the positive return on time deposits of the population in the national currency is maintained. To overcome the current negative trends in the monetary sphere it is advisable: to consider the possibility of reducing the yield of NBU deposit certificates to a level comparable to the yield of “short “ OVDPs; to ensure the synchronization of the yield of “new” time deposits of the population in the national currency by terms at the level of five state banks; to consider the expediency of resuming the practice of compulsory sale of part of the foreign currency earnings of exporters at the level of at least 50% during the period of martial law; to intensify the use of non-monetary methods and anti-inflation policy measures, taking into account the joint responsibility of the government and regulator for anti-inflation policy.