bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Policy-Planning in the New Diplomacy
Authors: Howe Fisher
Published: June 2007

Most issues in foreign affairs can only be resolved by intuitive judgments based on knowledge and experience. Some problems, however, are susceptible of more rational, objective treatment, and application of such methods can only be helpful. New methods, including systems analysis and new mathematical techniques, can be usefully employed, in the areas of prediction, factor analysis, and what might be described as prescriptive analysis, in search of the optimum course. Such methods help to sort out the interacting variables with which foreign affairs is replete. Application of these methods will not be easy, partly because of the subject's complexity, partly because of practitioners' resistance to such innovations. In the Planning-Programming-Budgeting System (PPBS), a useful beginning has been made. Its application, however, to the traditional diplomatic functions— representation, negotiation—will take time and experimentation. State Department foreign affairs planners now direct their work toward analysis of special problems and country studies. In addition, planners fulfill a limited adversary role, offering "alternatives" to recommendations before the decision-makers. These functions can all be strengthened. PPBS should also be pursued, despite very real limitations on its full application. Additionally, changes are needed in organization, method, personnel, and, particularly, commitment if planning is to meet the needs of the new diplomacy.
Research and Analysis
Authors: Platig E. Raymond
Published: June 2007

Our ability successfully to look forward in the conduct of our foreign relations rests, in large part, upon how we develop and use our resources for research and analysis. At present, these are broadly diffused in both the public and private sectors; a number of stresses and strains indicate that they are not as effectively deployed and utilized as they could be. Improvements are possible on many fronts. Attention here is on the information, research, and analysis needs of the United States government, with particular attention to the Department of State. The Department's Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) occupies a pivotal position. A substantial increase in its capabilities would have many desirable consequences. Among these are: enrichment of INR's own influential analytical research efforts; stimulation and support of the academic search for more coherent and socially relevant knowledge; assurance that the Department will derive the maximum analytical benefit from a modern information-handling system; expanded opportunities to train Foreign Service officers in analytical methods; more balanced and efficacious programs of government contract and grant support for foreign affairs research; and more systematic policy review and development in support of planning. Cost to the American public is estimated at five cents per person per year.
The Case for Differential Treatment of Delinquents
Authors: Warren Marguerite Q.
Published: June 2007

Based on the assumption that the same treat ment program which is beneficial to some types of offenders may be detrimental to other types, a series of experimental programs for delinquents have developed around a theory of the differential use of program elements. The question asked has been: What kinds of treatment programs conducted by what kinds of workers in what kinds of settings are best for what kinds of youthful offenders? In approaching these in vestigations, several classification schemata—categorizing of fenders, treaters, environments, and treatment methods—have been developed. Attempts have then been made to study the "matching" of workers, settings, and methods with types of delinquents. These studies have produced a number of find ings : Offenders can be reliably classified in treatment-relevant ways. A large proportion of youthful offenders can be suc cessfully treated in community-based programs rather than institutions; however, incarceration leads to higher success rates with one type of delinquent. Grouping of offenders into homogeneous living units by subtype leads to a significant decrease in institution-management problems. Offenders who are well matched with their treaters have much higher success rates than those who are not well matched. Impact of these studies on correctional programs in California is great, both at state and county levels. Interest in these concepts has led to the establishment of the Center for Training in Differential Treatment.
Crimes, Penalties, and Legislatures
Authors: Crowther Carol
Published: June 2007

The California State Assembly requested its own Office of Research to report on the deterrent effects of criminal penalties. Previous Assembly experience had indicated that information assembled by legislative technical staff could have a significant impact on legislation and social change. This paper summarizes and comments on the criminal-penalties study. It was found that there is no evidence that severe penalties deter crime more effectively than less severe penal ties. Critical deterrents vary according to type of individual and type of offense. Prisons are more destructive than rehabilitative. Increased investments in community-level action, including improving the efficiency of police activity and of community rehabilitation programs, are probably more effective crime-control measures than reliance upon institu tionalization of offenders. This paper focuses upon the arbi trary parole-decision process as a critical and representative defect in the criminal-justice system. More recently, study has led to the conclusion that the effects of "secondary" penalties, such as stigmatization, exposure to other criminals in prisons, loss of civil rights, reduced job opportunities, and family de terioration, have been underestimated. The ultimate public costs of intake of most offenders into the present criminal- justice system may far outweigh its deterrent or rehabilitative effects.
The Puerto Ricans: Protest or Submission?
Authors: Maldonado-Denis Manuel
Published: June 2007

The situation of Puerto Ricans in the United States cannot be seen as abstracted from that of those living in Puerto Rico. Puerto Rico has been a colony of the United States since 1898, and the most pervasive characteristic of its population—both in the Island and in the Mainland—is its colonialist mentality or world view: hence, the attitude of sub mission and acquiescence characteristic of the Puerto Ricans. The only forces in Puerto Rico that represent Puerto Rican pro test against the perpetuation of colonialism in Puerto Rico are the proindependence groups. In this respect, their goal is simi lar to that of the Black Power advocates in the United States, because both groups are faced with a similar situation. Only when Puerto Ricans have achieved decolonization, both psycho logically and politically, will they be able to come of age as a true protest movement. Otherwise they run the risk of a total destruction of Puerto Rican nationality, and cultural assimila tion by the United States.
The New Left
Authors: Lynd Staughton
Published: June 2007

The American New Left is actually part of an international political tendency. Despite differences in form, student movements of the 1960's in the United States, West Europe, and Japan share common concerns: rejection of both capitalism and bureaucratic communism, anti-imperialism, and an activist orientation, violent or nonviolent. The main intel lectual emphases of the American New Left appear to be anti- scholasticism, utopianism, and activism, as is illustrated in representative works by two authors whose ideas have greatly influenced the New Left: C. Wright Mills and Howard Zinn. The single most characteristic element in the thought-world of the New Left is the existential commitment to action, in the knowledge that the consequence of action can never be fully predicted; this commitment has survived all changes in political fashion. More concretely, the members of the New Left condemn existing American society as "corporate liberal ism," and seek to replace it with "participatory democracy." American New Left theorists, however, made the implicit assumption that the United States would not turn toward overt authoritarianism, overlooking the possibility that their own success in unmasking "corporate liberalism" would change the character of the situation and force the Establishment to feel a need for more vigorous controls. The New Left's assessment of American reality was, in this sense, not too negative, but too hopeful. The prospect is not bright, but the trend toward repression does not necessarily mean the end of the New Left. Its origins go back to the thought and action of resistance against the fascism of the 1930's and 1940's. Therefore, the spirit of resistance, perhaps even, possibly, of nonviolent resistance, may yet rise to the occasion.—Ed.
The Republican Radical Right
Authors: Koeppen Sheilah R.
Published: June 2007

As if in commemoration of their martyr Senator Joseph McCarthy, a diverse collection of right-wing organiza tions obsessed by the menace of domestic communism sprang into prominence during the late 1950's and early 1960's—the "Radical Right." These radical-right organizations saw many political and social policies of that era as evidence of a wide spread conspiracy among American Communists, fellow travel ers, and their dupes, a conspiracy aimed at turning the country into a Communist satellite. Many commentators, on this phe nomenon, mesmerized by this fantasy of Communist sub version, suggested that the Radical Right appealed to persons distressed by social change or psychologically disturbed. This article delineates these psychosociological conjectures and criti cizes them for their lack of empirical support. The character istic of radical-right supporters which has been empirically established is political: a large majority considered themselves Republicans. The supporters of the Radical Right were not merely Republicans; they were loyal and active Republicans who frequently exerted considerable influence in Party affairs. Many of the radical-right organizations are still active. Since 1964, however, their public pronouncements, though still pro claiming that the threat to America is internal, have focused on domestic Communists as well as on "real" problems such as the increasing crime rate. With a Republican administra tion, the Radical Right will be less critical and less visible.
Perspective on Adoption
Authors: Infausto Felix
Published: June 2007

Adoption law in the United States traces its origin to early Roman law. Although Roman law provided for adoption, its singular purpose was to provide the adopter with an heir. European civil law carried on the Roman tradition providing that only persons over twenty-one could be adopted and only those over fifty could adopt. Late in the nineteenth century, the United States formalized its adoption law, basing its procedural aspects on Roman law, but originating the social-conscience aspect of adoption which mandated that the adoption be in the best interests of the child. The cause of social-conscience adoption was a public opinion which had been outraged by the processes of indenture and the binding out of children. Gradually, the states enacted legislation providing for judicial inquiry and social investigation to ensure that the child's interests would be furthered as well as the interests of the adoptive and natural parents. Today, enlightened state and federal statutes, along with the assistance of private and public child-care agencies, have eliminated many of the gross abuses and uncertainties that were the companions of the adoptions of yesterday.
Asia and America at the Crossroads
Authors: Young Kenneth T.
Published: June 2007

Asia is entering an era of its own—youthful, urban, and dynamic. The dangers of chaos or collapse seem over, largely because of the instinct for survival of Asian nationalism, as well as of the American people's support of Asia during the past thirty years. The new Asian era will bring a resumption of Asian prerogatives, a renaissance of Asian styles, and a return to the basic Asian realities of synthesis, solidity, pragmatism, and plural diplomacy. No one nation—Asian or alien—will be able to dictate Asia's destiny or the key question of Asia's future organization. Asian primacy will, indeed, replace foreign predominance. A search for accommodation and convergence beyond containment, in new forms of regional co-operation, is becoming Asia's main thrust in the 1970's. For this, we need new policies. We should reduce our increasingly obsolete and much too visible overpresence in Asia. Instead, we should develop a new kind of relevant and modest partnership suitable to the Asian framework of this new Asian era. Our immediate need is to put our relationships with, among others, Japan, Vietnam, Thailand, and the Philippines on a better basis, and to prepare ourselves to be ready to deal, eventually, with a new leadership on Mainland China. In the future, our style and our model may be more relevant to the Asians than our vast power and resources. The most extraordinary feature of this crossroads is that some aspects of Asian modernization are becoming more like ours while, paradoxically, we are becoming more unlike Asia and the rest of the world in other respects.
The United States and the Arab-Israeli Dispute
Authors: Sisco Joseph J.
Published: June 2007

The United States has sought to protect its vital interests in the Middle East by seeking to prevent hostilities, to maintain close relations with all nations of the area, to limit the arms race, and to promote a just and lasting peace. The framework for a just and lasting peace is the United Nations Security Council Resolution of November 22, 1967. The administration of President Nixon has pursued this objective through an intensive series of meetings with representatives of the parties concerned, through bilateral discussions with the Soviet Union, and through four-power talks in the United Nations context. All of our efforts in the bilateral and multilateral context are designed to assist Ambassador Jarring in his mandate to promote agreement between the parties on the basis of the principles of the United Nations Resolution. The great-power talks are not a mechanism to impose peace. Rather, the views expressed by the great powers could serve to narrow the differences now dividing Israel and the Arab states.
The Current Effect of the American Aid Program
Authors: Gaud William S.
Published: June 2007

The principal objective of the United States foreign-aid program is to help the developing countries to modernize their economies, to achieve social reforms, and to build viable social and political institutions. The most urgent immediate task, however, is to help them to increase their food-production and to reduce their rates of population growth. As a result of the added emphasis being given to agriculture, both by the developing countries themselves and by the United States and other aid-donors, India, Pakistan, and a number of other Asian nations are now in the midst of an agricultural revolution (the Green Revolution) which—if it continues to spread—will enable the developing world to feed itself for the next fifteen to twenty years. Our development-aid program has contributed much to the success of the Green Revolution. It has also enabled a number of the poorer nations to make substantial development progress. But we are now devoting too small a percentage of our resources to foreign aid—rela— tively less than is donated by many other rich nations. The reasons given for our cutting aid to this extent do not stand up. Development aid works, and it is in our interest to help countries who are willing to help themselves. The United States should take the lead in a sustained development effort which will remove the danger to peace—and the affront to decency— represented by the poverty of the Third World.
The Why, How, and Whence of Manpower Programs
Authors: Mangum Garth L.
Published: June 2007

Short- and long-run factors have influenced the emergence of United States manpower policy. The transition from agrarian to industrial and postindustrial society has had varied effects upon employability in the labor market. Inadequate aggregate demand is a better explanation than structural unemployment as a cause for the manpower problems of the late 1950's. During the 1960's, there has been a shift in the emphasis of manpower policy from those displaced by automation, to youth, to the disadvantaged. There are many difficulties in mounting employment strategies to fight the war on poverty and in designing alternative manpower programs for these groups. Thus far, the approach has been a piecemeal attack, with new programs being originated to meet individually recognized manpower and employment problems as they arose. Current issues in creating a viable manpower policy include: inadequate resources relative to need, development of the proper mix of federal-state-local administrative jurisdictions, co-ordination of the varied programs, and determination of the appropriate degree of emphasis to be given to remedial, as opposed to preventive, programs. A major revision needed in existing manpower activities is tailoring programs to the needs of individuals rather than making people fit into existing programs. A comprehensive manpower program is needed to meet this goal. Evaluation efforts and management techniques must be improved to assure that correct policies are delineated and implemented. Given the basic goal of enhancing individual freedom, effective manpower policies can do much to help the disadvantaged to expand their opportunities and to face the problems of their complex urban society better.
Community Power and Community Mobilization
Authors: Aiken Michael
Published: June 2007

The debate among sociologists and political scientists about community power structure was concerned primarily with questions of methodology and the appropriate imagery for describing the distribution of power in American communities. The question of what difference it made for a local community and its citizens, if any, whether power was narrowly concentrated or widely dispersed was seldom raised. Two alternative hypotheses relating the concentration of community power to community-mobilization are discussed. The first argues for a positive relationship between concentration of power and community-mobilization while the second argues the obverse of this hypothesis. A diffusion-of-power scale is constructed based on a content-analysis of thirty-one American communities that were the subject of decision-making studies, and this scale is related to community participation in four federal self-help programs—public housing, urban renewal, Model Cities, and the war on poverty. The results show that the cities in which power is most diffused have greater participation in these programs. An outline of some key concepts that may be most appropriate for explaining such findings is suggested.
Choice and Change in the American Welfare System
Authors: Rein Martin
Published: June 2007

Public welfare policy during the 1960's has come to assign priority to a cash-transfer policy. A public debate has ensued about the form that new or reformed cash transfers might take. While debating, we have introduced changes in our cash-transfer system, especially in the means-tested sector, without having explicitly chosen to take the direction which these changes imply. Thus, the changes that we have already adopted warrant serious re-examination. This article discusses two of the issues in doubt. In some states we have already assured benefit levels in public assistance at or near the poverty line and have added an incentive scheme to this guarantee. We justify this policy by our faith that "add-on" will lead to "take-off." This change in policy, however, is more likely to lead to the curious outcome that families are likely to be better off economically when they are both at work and on welfare. To avoid this dilemma, we need a wage-level policy which seeks to raise the wages in the marginal low-wage economy and to make it an alternative, rather than a supplement, to benefits. The impact which improvements in low wages would have on the rest of the economy is a critical issue, characterized more by passion than by understanding. We have been reluctant to debate a wage-level policy, and this remains the basic issue in the public review of cash transfers.—Ed.
Inequality: A Trend Analysis
Authors: Roby Pamela
Published: June 2007

The attempt to grapple with poverty during the 1960's led to renewed recognition of the importance of inequality in affluent societies. This paper summarizes trends in the share of national income going to the bottom fifth of the population, ranked according to income, and in the composition of that bottom fifth over the past twenty years. Between 1947 and 1967, despite the decline in the share of total national income going to the top 5 percent, little progress was made in increasing the share of the bottom 20 percent. A specific timetable of income-redistribution is needed for the 1970's so that we can assess our programs in increasing the share of national goods going to the poor and to minorities. Over the next ten years, we should seek to expand the share of income going to families in the bottom 20 percent of the population by at least 2 to 3 percent—from 5.4 percent in 1967 to 7 or 8 percent in 1977. In the mid-1960's considerable progress was made in reducing inequality between blacks and whites: the ratio of nonwhite to white income increased from 53 percent in 1963 to 62 percent in 1967—an increase of approximately 2.25 percent a year. This gain should continue, so that by 1979, a black income would be at least 89 percent of white income.
The Evaluation of Broad-Aim Programs: A Cautionary Case and a Moral
Authors: Weiss Robert S. , Rein Martin
Published: June 2007

It is often assumed that the ideal study-design for evaluation of the effectiveness of a social program would be a controlled experiment. A case study is presented of an evaluation-research project which utilized such a design. The project encountered both technical difficulties and intraorganizational friction, which, it is argued, are virtually inherent in the utilization of an experimental design for the appraisal of the effects of a broad-aim, largely unstandardized, and inadequately replicated action-program. Among the technical difficulties are problems in the identification of criteria, problems having to do with the exclusion of alien variables, problems associated with the changing form of the intervention, and problems associated with the limitations of the experimental form as a source of new knowledge. Among the sources of intraorganizational friction are the constraints on stimulus-modification imposed by the experimental commitment, the tendency of operationalizations of aims to become aims in their own right, and the comparative ignorance regarding what the action-program is doing on the part of a research group which is concentrating on the collection of baseline data. A plea is made for evaluation which would be more qualitative and process-oriented.
Some Reflections on the Jewish-Christian Dialogue in the Light of the Six-Day War
Authors: Vogel Manfred
Published: June 2007

In the domain of dialogue, an authentic crisis consists of one situation only—that in which one party with draws from confronting an issue raised by the other party. Only such a discrepancy—when one party falls silent and fails to respond to an issue which deeply involves the other party— can be considered to precipitate an authentic crisis. Such a crisis was precipitated in the Jewish-Christian dialogue when the Christian partner fell silent during the period aptly de scribed as the "Munich period." Inasmuch as the state of Israel was, for him, a purely political entity, it could not come within the purview of his dialogue with Judaism, because that religion was, to him, like Christianity, a purely religious entity. The reality of Judaism qua religion, however, does not allow this neat division between faith and politics, for Judaism is, in its very essence, inextricably tied to an ethnic dimension, that is, to Jewish nationhood, and, as such, to all its "secular" aspects, including the political. But this bond, which is dis tinctive and peculiar to Judaism, is not easily appreciated. It calls for a sustained, elaborate theological exposition. This the Jewish partner failed to offer, and the Christian partner cannot be blamed for having molded Judaism's theo logical image after that of his own religion. Still, the crisis which inevitably ensued may yet prove a blessing in disguise, in having so poignantly shown the bankruptcy of the dialogue when pursued as a mere humanitarian encounter and, as a result, leading to the reconstitution of the dialogue as an authentic theological encounter.
Contraception and Abortion: American Catholic Responses
Authors: Callahan Daniel
Published: June 2007

The struggle within Roman Catholicism over contraception, and the struggle which is likely to arise over abortion, reflect a mixture of theological and social change. The challenge to papal authority inherent in the dissent from Pope Paul's encyclical on birth control is bound to have pro found ramifications in the church. At the same time, however, the fact of Catholic assimilation into the mainstream of Ameri can life, a life manifesting the impact of urbanization and tech nology, made a conflict over contraception almost inevitable.
Clergy Involvement in Civil Rights
Authors: Hadden Jeffrey K.
Published: June 2007

Historically, the churches have been more on the side of the status quo than on the frontiers of change and the achievement of social justice. The occupants of the pews con tinue to resist change, but those who occupy the pulpits have, to a considerable degree, experienced a deepening commitment to, and involvement in, the struggle for social justice. This is leading to the deepest schism in the churches since the Prot estant Reformation. The efforts of clergymen to make the faith relevant to the civil rights movement must be seen in a broader context of internal upheavals over the meaning and purpose of the faith, doctrinal belief, and the exercise of au thority. Lay resistance to involvement of the clergy is serious enough to raise the question of whether religion in its present institutional forms will survive.
The War, the Churches, and Civil Religion
Authors: Neuhaus Richard John
Published: June 2007

The opinion leadership of American religion has, since 1965, succeeded in making opposition to the Vietnam war respectable, to the effective exclusion of divergent viewpoints. Dissent from this new orthodoxy is exercised by small enclaves within a few scholarly centers and by larger church bodies that have remained aloof from the modern ecumenical dynamic in church co-operation and decision-making. The reasons for positions taken on the war by such different organizations as the National Council of Churches and the Southern Baptist Convention are, in large part, extrinsic to the merits or demerits of the war itself. The majority opposition to the war has, in a way similar to majority support for the civil rights movement, posed the problem of discontinuity with conventional Christian and Jewish piety. At the popular level, the relationship be tween religious devotion and specific social commitments has not been clarified effectively, resulting frequently in alienation of membership caused by "mixing politics with religion." Re ligious opposition to the war has more to do with what Robert Bellah has described as the American civil religion than it does with explicitly Jewish or Christian formulations of theology and ethics. The civil religion is, in turn, dependent upon the latter. The churches and synagogues face the challenge of enabling the civil religion to illuminate and guide the course of American power in the Third World. The question of American power and world revolution is central to the Vietnam debate, and, although organized religion's opposition to the war has been gratifying, little progress has been made on the required recon struction of American civil religion.
Social Indicators, Reports, and Accounts: Toward the Management of Society
Authors: Springer Michael
Published: June 2007

To many scholars and public officials, proposals for systems of social indicators and accounts, and for annual presidential social reports, point toward what can be viewed as an ultimate instrument of societal management. This instrument would eventually provide a macroscopic assessment of the current and future state and performance of the social order, along with an indication of control mechanisms and guidelines for the production of social knowledge. Rooted in a "social science of managerial rationality," it would draw upon the techniques of social-trend analysis, the analysis of national goals, futurism, systems theory, and "the new political economy." In this regard, the two most fully developed discussions of social accounting differ primarily in their notion of what would be a rationally managed social order. It is argued that this instrument should be developed with models of democracy, as well as rational management, and based on a social science developed to serve the needs of the poor and unorganized as well as the rich and powerful.
Perceptions, Aspirations, Frustrations, and Satisfactions: An Approach to Urban Indicators
Authors: Stagner Ross
Published: June 2007

Urban indicators must tell us how the urban system is doing. Objective indices are limited; inherent factors in the situation demand that subjective data from those affected by social planning be considered. Because the city exists only to serve human needs, the question of satisfactions becomes crucial. But satisfactions depend on aspirations, and aspirations depend on how a person perceives himself, his progress, and his status as compared with others. It seems likely that frustrations of desires for status, security, recognition, and self-expression contribute substantially to the hostility and violence found in contemporary cities. Research is required to validate this assertion. A set of psychological urban indicators would focus on the frequency and intensity of satisfaction (or dissatisfaction) with aspects of urban life perceived as important by the citizens of the city. Effective use of these indicators will require that they be analyzed in relation to the objective data already available. If data are sorted by census tracts or similar units, it should be feasible to test some hypotheses about urban planning by introducing a change in a restricted area and measuring changes in perceptions and satisfactions which follow.
Social Indicators: Selected Readings
Authors: Agocs Carol
Published: June 2007

This bibliography is intended to be a working list of sources representative of the new field of social indicators and social accounting. It includes both a sampling of works that outline theoretical developments in the field and some illustrative attempts to develop social indicators and reports. For the sake of brevity, only collections of papers have been provided with annotations which indicate the titles and authors of articles contained therein. A review of this bibliography will illustrate the interdisciplinary nature of the social accounting movement. Because social accounting originated so recently and is developing so rapidly, the majority of the references bear dates of 1965 or later. Inasmuch as this bibliography is a selection of readings, it obviously makes no claim to inclusive-ness.
Thinking Social-Scientifically about Environmental Quality
Authors: Klausner Samuel Z.
Published: June 2007

Technological intervention to improve the qual ity of the environment is an immediate need. The current environmental crisis is rooted in the character of the society which develops and uses technology. The relation of society to its physical environment is governed by the society's defini tions of its resources and the rules evolved for regulating social relations with respect to the environment. Fundamen tal solutions to environmental problems must, therefore, in clude social solutions. To stem deterioration of the quality of the environment will require an examination of those rules regulating the relation between individuals and the collective.
International Collaboration Concerning Southeast Asia
Authors: Koh T.T.B.
Published: June 2007

Following conventional usage, Southeast Asia is defined as the region consisting of Burma, Thailand, Laos, Cambodia, North and South Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia. At present there is no organization to which all Southeast Asian nations belong.

Regional economic collaboration is being obstructed or impeded by nationalism, national economic policies of autarchy, industrialization based on import substitution, and an un-ripened sense of regional identity. In view of the seriousness of the obstacles, regional bodies such as ASEAN should devote themselves to the promotion of practical projects and not aim for grandiose schemes which are beyond their present capacities to realize. Collaboration between two or three countries in the region should be encouraged. Encouraging progress is being made in the fields of education and training, which is not only important in itself but also builds confidence for other forms of regional collaboration.

A plea is made for greater support from the developed countries, particularly from the major powers, for regional projects. Such support should, ideally, be accorded high priority in the aid policies of the developed countries. The collaboration between ASEAN and ECAFE (Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East) is also seen as important, and could provide a valuable impetus to the growth of regionalism in Southeast Asia.
The New Multipolar Balance in East Asia: Implications for United States Policy
Authors: Barnett A. Doak
Published: June 2007

A new four-power balance is emerging in East Asia. This is the product of the Sino-Soviet conflict, the re-emergence of Japan, and the trend toward a reduced United States military role in the region. The balance will create new problems, but new opportunities as well. It will involve increased fluidity, competition, and maneuver. Yet, in a basic sense, the balance may prove to be relatively stable, because dramatic realignments among the major powers in the region do not seem likely in the next decade. Hopefully, the balance may tend to reduce the dangers of local conflicts escalating into confrontations between major powers. Some developments, such as a Sino-Soviet war, a decision by Japan to "go nuclear," or increased big-power confrontation in the Indo-China area, could upset the balance. However, if these dangers can be avoided, the new quadrilateral balance may over time prove to be an improvement over the bipolar balance of the past. Virtually every country in the region will have to reassess its situation, interests, and policies, in some respects. The United States should move to implement the Guam Doctrine and adjust its policies toward China. It should maintain its alliance with Japan and the stability of U.S.-Soviet strategic relations, but it should use what influence it can to prevent a Sino-Soviet war or a decision by Japan to acquire nuclear weapons.
An American Policy Toward the Middle East
Authors: Hart Parker T.
Published: June 2007

America is being pressed by two emotionally charged nations to serve their own, not our, national interests, and all our relations with the Middle East are being polarized on the Arab-Israeli issue although that is not the only important issue there. Our internal politics have often made it difficult to pursue either our own national interest or even-handed justice. The history of Palestine is full of missed opportunities for more equitable solutions than are available today. The expatriate Palestinian Arabs make any settlement difficult but no settlement is possible that excludes the Arabs of Palestine. The Big Powers have been too involved and are too suspect; a settlement can come only through the mediation of lesser powers, preferably from the Northern Tier states. A proposed settlement is outlined.
Rebellion and Repression and the Vietnam War
Authors: Smith Robert B.
Published: June 2007

Aspects of the domestic social costs of the Vietnam war are studied by relating differences in attitude about the war to tolerance for rebellion and support for repres sions. Attitudes about the war define three social types: the disaffected doves strongly oppose the war; the harassed hawks are strongly committed to it; and the silent majority is in the middle. The doves are more concerned about domestic prob lems, take a more liberal position on civil rights and social welfare, and have greater tolerance for rebellion. Surpris ingly, the silent majority is almost as tolerant as the doves. Both are considerably more tolerant than the hawks. Four test factors also affect tolerance for rebellion. These are: attitudes favorable to civil rights, membership in an ethnic minority, high socio-economic status, and being less than forty years of age. These test factors also specify the original rela tionship between attitude about the war and tolerance. The overall effect on tolerance of being a dove is increased when ever a category of a test factor predisposes toward tolerance. Whenever a category predisposes toward repression, the doves are less tolerant and are similar to the silent majority.
The President and His Experts
Authors: Lyons Gene M.
Published: June 2007

There is a useful distinction between the President of the United States and the Presidency, especially important because of the critical role of the President in shaping the public interest. Agencies making up the "institutional Presidency" have evolved over the years to serve the growing needs of the President. As a conglomerate, they provide the closest approximation to a national planning organization that American politics will tolerate. But the effectiveness of any agency is directly related to its usefulness to the President. Within these agencies, moreover, social scientists, among other experts, have been brought into the orbit of presidential power as expertise has become important to the planning process. There they operate in a highly political environment in which they vie for the President's attention with other advisers who, from a different set of responsibilities, may have a different but equally valid view of what is in the President's best interests. Like other experts, social scientists may thus find themselves torn between their allegiance to the President and the professional standards of their own expertise. The dilemma is particularly difficult since their usefulness to the President resides precisely in their expertise and they cannot escape the issue by ignoring or distorting professional standards.
Congressional Information Processes for National Policy
Authors: Beckman Norman
Published: June 2007

Conventional wisdom holds that the Congress is too fragmented to identify and act on national priorities. Yet through constant modifications Congress has managed to maintain its unique roles of access and creativity without centralization of power or major reorganization. Complementing and overlaying the crucial role played by the committee system is a network of information resources within the Congress that contributes to intelligent consideration of interrelated public policy concerns.

Recent developments reveal strengthened staff support, more active party policy-making, reform of committee procedures and staffing, and expanded information, investigation, and analytical resources. Continuing improvements in congressional decision-making machinery will permit Congress to continue to be a partner with the President in representing the public interest.
The Military and the Balance of Payments
Authors: Fried Edward R.
Published: June 2007

U.S. military cooperation with Western Europe and Japan is intermittently threatened by controversy over who should assume responsibility for the foreign exchange costs of stationing forces abroad. This question has been the cause of a long-standing dispute between the United States and its allies. At home, the need "to strengthen the dollar" by eliminating the foreign exchange drain on military account is frequently cited as a major reason for withdrawing U.S. forces from Western Europe, Korea, and Japan. There may well be compelling political, military, or budgetary reasons to revise U.S. mutual defense arrangements and reduce forces stationed abroad, but to make the decision on balance of payments grounds is to confuse means and ends. Our allies might appropriately be asked to mitigate the effect of this problem by cost-sharing arrangements and by military procurement in the United States, but the case for their doing so should meet the test of efficiency as well as equity. In the last analysis, however, the military balance of payments deficit should be viewed not as a military or security issue, but as part of the general process through which nations correct payment imbalances—surpluses as well as deficits. For this reason the stability of U.S. mutual defense arrangements over the future will depend in part on the success achieved in current negotiations to reform the international monetary system.
Southern School Desegregation, 1954-1973: A Judicial-Political Overview
Authors: Edelman Marian Wright
Published: June 2007

Following the Brown decisions of 1954 and 1955, the Supreme Court refrained from ordering immediate dismantlement of the dual school system, leaving formulation of specific orders with regard to school desegregation in the hands of district courts. Obstruction and delay resulted, with massive southern resistance and a weak federal response. It was not until passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964, when federal desegregation standards were adopted, that substantial desegregation could begin. Soon both the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare and the federal courts took a unified stand behind the law, attacking "free choice" and southern delay. Progress finally seemed at hand. However, under the Nixon administration, federal enforcement efforts have been undercut. Major responsibility for enforcing school desegregation has been shifted from HEW to the slower judicial efforts of the Justice Department. Negative executive leadership has set a tone of national retreat. The current issue of busing and neighborhood schools threatens to erase desegregation progress already made in the South as well as to defeat efforts at making Brown a nationally applied policy. However, strong national and local leadership could maintain desegregation progress.
Race, Judicial Discretion, and the Death Penalty
Authors: Wolfgang Marvin E. , Riedel Marc
Published: June 2007

The record of executions in the United States has long shown that black defendants are disproportionately subjected to this sanction. But racial differentials in the use of the death penalty may not alone reveal the existence of racial discrimination. The Supreme Court in the Furman decision ruled that the death penalty is unconstitutional because it is a "cruel and unusual" punishment. Some allusions to racial discrimination appeared in the opinions, but more evidence seems called for. Some earlier studies of racial differentials in sentencing are reviewed, followed by a summary of the research procedure and conclusions from an elaborate study of sentencing for rape in states where that offense has been a capital crime. Strong statistically significant differences in the proportions of blacks sentenced to death, compared to whites, when a variety of nonracial aggravating circumstances are considered, permit the conclusion that the sentencing differentials are the product of racial discrimination.
War and Peace
Authors: Rapoport Anatol
Published: June 2007

The impact of the information revolution on the problems and threats engendered by human conflicts has been ambivalent, as was the impact of the earlier technological revolution. The destructive potential of war has obviously been increased by several orders of magnitude. This increase is to be attributed not only to the harnessing of new, awesome sources of energy, but also to the creation of weapon systems whose effectiveness depends on the fantastically rapid information processing made possible by computers and servo-mechanisms —products of the information revolution. The possible positive contributions of the information revolution in alleviating other forms of human conflict depend upon the uses to which information technology will be put. The uses to which information is put depend on the value systems of those who direct the uses and on the value systems of those who give support or acquiesce to those decisions.
Chilean Political Exile
Authors: Wright Thomas C. , Oñate Zúñiga Rody
Published: June 2007

Forced exile was important to Chilean politics both during the military regime and after the dictatorship's end in 1990. Exile was central to Pinochet's strategy for eliminating the left in Chile and consolidating and retaining absolute political power. At the same time, exile kept the opposition alive when the left was decimated in Chile, as exiles reconstituted their parties abroad and fought the dictatorship from the “external front.” Exiles' return in the mid-1980s contributed to the success of the opposition effort to defeat Pinochet in the 1988 plebiscite. Finally, the exile experience was central to the reconfiguration of Chilean politics, particularly the “renovation” of the Socialists, which led to the breakup of the long-standing Socialist-Communist alliance and the formation of the Socialist—Christian Democrat alliance, the core of the Concertación de Partidos por la Democracia, which has elected presidents and majorities in the Chamber of Deputies in each election since 1989.
The Brazilian Exile Experience
Authors: Rollemberg Denise
Published: June 2007

The story of the Brazilian exile experience (1964—1979) from the perspective of the exiles themselves highlights the loss of roots and references and the discovery of new possibilities. The quotidian side of exile involved doubt, certainty, distress, emptiness, fear, insanity, death, difficulty with documents, work, study, reconstruction of pathways—in short, a redefinition of identity imposed by day-to-day life. At the same time that the exile experience meant the removal and elimination of the “generations” of 1964 and 1968, it also meant their survival: it was the locus of free thought, critical inquiry, learning, and enrichment, the locus of resistance and transformation, the negation of negation.
Precision, Speed, and Distraction in Time-Limit Tests
Authors: Pieters Jo P. M. , van der Ven Ad H.G.S.
Published: June 2007

Three models are presented that account for the effects of speed and precision in mental test scores as measured by time-limit intelligence tests. To estimate precision, it is shown that the Rasch model— and, as a special case, the binomial error model —can be used, focusing on the number of items correct and the number of items attempted (usually considered as estimators of these effects). To estimate speed, a model called the Poisson-Erlang model is presented. It is shown that speed can be analyzed into two components: processing time and distraction time. Parameters of the Poisson-Erlang model are used to estimate these components. An outline is given of a new method for analyzing time-limit tests, combining the different models. In addition, it is shown that the Poisson-Erlang model can be used to account for response latencies commonly observed in mental concentration tests.