bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Deciphering the impact of hydro-geological hazards on Italian firms: a nation-wide assessment
Authors: Segoni Samuele , Clò Stefano , David Francesco
Published: July 2022

Landslides and floods are responsible for causalties and economic losses worlwide and Italy is one of the most affected countries. However, despite the relevant damages, little is known on the indirect effects that such hazards exert on the local and national economy.  

In this nation-wide study, the indirect effects od hydro-geological phenomena on Italian firms are assessed by coupling variables concerning Italian firms' competitiviness with a dataset of flood and landslide events. Econometic indicators were defined starting from data provided by organizations such as INPS, ISTAT, CERVED, Tax Registry and Bank of Italy. A geodatabase providig the timing and location of harmful hydro-geological events was compiled by an automated web datamining procedure based on a semantic algorithm scanning internet news. The datasets covers all italian municiaplites in the timespan ranging from 2010 to 2020.

A statistical analysis highlighted that hydro-geological disasters, even the non-extreme ones, may negatively affect the future development of local economies: firms located in municipalities hit by a relevant event face on average a 4.8% increase in the probability of exiting the market with respect to non-impaired firms. Moreover, surviving firms seem to be slightly affected by natural disasters, in particular on the revenue side (-3.5%) and, to a lesser extent, on employment (-1.7%). Acros Italy, these effects are very eterogeneus, depending on the location and the characteristics of th affected firms. The most evident effects are observed in case of micro and small businesses, for those active in services and those located in rural and suburban areas.
The role of Atmospheric Rivers in the Mediterranean in heavy precipitation events over the Alps
Authors: Davolio Silvio , Miglietta Mario Marcello , Vercellino Marco , Drago Pitura Lucia , Giovannini Lorenzo , Sioni Francesco , Grazzini Federico , Laviola Sante , Levizzani Vincenzo
Published: July 2022

Heavy precipitation events on the southern side of the Alps are typically associated with a favourable large-scale environment, characterized by an upper-level trough or cut-off cyclone over the western Mediterranean. This configuration induces, at the meso -scale, a meridional transport of large amount of moisture towards the orography, often organized in the form of a pre-frontal low-level jet. The thermodynamic characteristics of the impinging moist flow and its interaction with the orography determine the distribution and the intensity of the rainfall.

The present study shows that, besides the local contribution from the Mediterranean Sea, a relevant amount of moisture may move from the tropics towards the Mediterranean within long and narrow filament-shaped structures, known as atmospheric rivers (AR). To this aim, a detection algorithm, designed for the open oceans, has been adapted to the peculiar morphology of the Mediterranean and applied to identify ARs during some of the most severe weather events affecting the Alpine region in the last decades. Moreover, some diagnostic tools, such as an algorithm for the calculation of the atmospheric water budget, have been employed to compare and investigate such AR events.

The presence of ARs across the Mediterranean has been recently associated with heavy precipitation over southern Europe and Italy in particular. However, their role has not been fully assessed yet, in terms of contribution to the rainfall amount and of interaction with the cyclones driving their evolution. Therefore, high resolution numerical simulations are exploited to investigate how the transport of water vapour associated with the AR may have impacted on the severity and dynamics of a recent heavy precipitation event affecting the western Alps, and to disentangle how much rainfall can be attributed directly to the presence of the AR.
A pan-Alpine climatology of lightning and convective initiation
Authors: Manzato Agostino , Serafin Stefano , Miglietta Mario Marcello , Kirshbaum Daniel , Schulz Wolfgang
Published: July 2022

A new lightning-flash and convective initiation climatology is developed over the Alpine area, one of the hotspots for lightning activity in Europe. The climatology uses cloud-to-ground (CG) data from the European Cooperation for LIghtning Detection (EUCLID) network, occurring from 2005 to 2019.  The CG lightning data are gridded at a resolution of approximately 2km and 10min. A new and simple method of identifying convective initiation (CI) events applies a spatiotemporal mask to the CG data to determine CI timing and location.
Although the method depends on a few empirical thresholds, sensitivity  tests show the results to be robust. The maximum activity for both CG flashes and CI events is observed from mid-May to mid-September, with a peak at the end of July; the peak in the diurnal cycle occurs in the afternoon. CI is mainly concentrated over and around the Alps, particularly in northern and northeastern Italy. Since many thunderstorms follow the prevailing mid-latitude westerly flow, a peak of CG flashes extends from the mountains into the plains and coastal areas of northeastern Italy and Slovenia. CG flashes and CI events over the sea/coast occur less frequently than in plains and mountains, have a weaker diurnal cycle, and have a seasonal maximum in autumn instead of summer.
Analysis of a subtropical cyclone in the North Atlantic Ocean by means of the HARMONIE-AROME model: evaluation against satellite data
Authors: Quitián Hernández Lara , Calvo-Sancho Carlos , Díaz Fernández Javier , Bolgiani Pedro , Santos-Muñoz Daniel , Gonzalez-Alemán Juan Jesús , Sastre Mariano , Valero Francisco , Farrán Jose Ignacio , Martín Pérez María Luisa
Published: July 2022

Subtropical cyclones (STCs) are low-pressure atmospheric systems characterized by having a hybrid structure that shares tropical and extratropical features. Due to their rapid intensification and harmful impacts, sometimes similar to those generated by tropical storms or even hurricanes, the implementation of accurate simulations becomes key for improving their forecast. In this study, a particular STC developed in October 2014 near the Canary Islands is analyzed using the high-resolution HARMONIE-AROME model. This model is developed and operated at 2.5 km resolution through the collaboration of the 10 European National Meteorological Services (NMS) that are part of the international research program HIRLAM together with the 16 countries that comprise the ALADIN consortium. The HARMONIE-AROME model has a convection-permitting configuration and uses a non-hydrostatic spectral dynamical core with a semi-Lagrangian and semi-implicit discretization of the equations, which implies a lower computational cost. In order to evaluate the environment in which the cyclone was formed, several convective tools are used. In addition, the cyclone phase space diagrams (CPS) are used to thermodynamically categorize the STC as a hybrid system. Furthermore, considering the difficulty of obtaining observational data in the vicinity of this type of system, most of the time located in the middle of the ocean, the use of satellite data becomes key for the validation of the model’s simulations. Consequently, in this study, the simulated cloud top height is assessed for the October 2014 STC.
Are the effects of risk mitigation measures caught by Italian flood risk maps?
Authors: D'Ayala Margherita , Arosio Marcello , Martina Mario
Published: July 2022

Flooding constitutes the most frequent and one of the most destructive natural disasters, and every year it affects millions of people worldwide causing loss of life, disruption of commerce and financial networks, loss of business continuity and essential services. Even in Italy, floods represent one of the most widespread extreme events, increasingly common and hazardous.

Data from recent Italian reports highlight that the amount of money spent for risk prevention are not at all comparable to 1.9 billion of euros per year for repair damage and recovery, causing 1:6 ratio between pre- and post-disasters costs.
Hence, the necessity of a deep analysis on the economic and technical criteria used to design mitigation measures for flood risk protection.

The ReNDiS database (Repertorio Nazionale degli interventi per la Difesa del Suolo – National Database of soil protection measures) offers the data for such an analysis and for a comparison between type of hydraulic measures and risk level area obtained from flood risk maps produced by the District Authority of Po Basin.

The results show that flood risk maps do not catch the effect of the risk mitigation measures in terms of benefit. From this, the necessity of new criteria with which maps are produced.
Satellite soil moisture-derived rainfall for flood modelling in italy
Authors: Ciabatta Luca , Camici Stefania , Filippucci Paolo , Massari Christian , D'Adderio Leo Pio , Panegrossi Giulia , Mosaffa Hamidreza , Brocca Luca
Published: July 2022

Accurate precipitation estimates are paramount for the activities related to water management and risk assessment. Satellite-based rainfall estimates are generally obtained by an inversion of the atmospheric signals reflected or radiated by atmospheric hydrometeors, i.e., a “top-down” approach. The main drawback of this retrieval technique is related to the number of satellite overpasses, that may lead to a general underestimation of rainfall.

To overcome these issues, recently, some studies have investigated the possibility to integrate the state-of-the-art rainfall products with rainfall estimates obtained by a consolidated “bottom-up” approach, SM2RAIN (Brocca et al., 2014) exploiting satellite soil moisture observations for obtaining accumulated rainfall estimates. The integration between top-down and bottom-up estimates can produce a more reliable rainfall product for hydrological applications, characterized by better estimation of rainfall amounts and timing. 

On this basis, the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H SAF) has started the development and the sharing of integrated datasets of top-down satellite-based precipitation and soil moisture-derived rainfall estimates.

During the Continuous Development and Operational Phase (CDOP) 3 and 4, the H SAF consortium planned to develop and provide several integrated products to the users for hydrological applications, also by taking advantages of the next EPS-SG instruments with enhanced retrieval capabilities.

In this study, the usefulness of integrated products for river discharge simulation is assessed in Italy. More in details, the integrated product between SM2RAIN-derived estimates and Passive Microwave auxiliary product H67 (H64), the gauge corrected version (H84) and the SM2RAIN-only derived product (H87), along with the parent products will be use to force a semidistributed rainfall-runoff model (MISDc) during the period 2016-2019. The obtained river discharge timeseries have been compared with observed ones in order to evaluate the skill of the investigated products showing confirming the added value of using an integrated rainfall product for hydrological applications. Moreover, the results will provide useful insight that will help in improving the integrated products.

The analysis provided good results, confirming the added value of using an integrated rainfall product for hydrological applications, allowing to overcome some of the limitations of the state-of-the-art precipitation datasets.
Atmospheric Precursor of fire hazard: development of a fire-sentinel index for risk management in Abruzzo Region (Central Italy).
Authors: Lombardi Annalina , Pizzi Gabriele , Colaiuda Valentina , Ferrante Fabio , Tuccella Paolo , Di Antonio Ludovico , Lidori Raffaele , Di Fazio Daniela , Malatesta Thomas , Costa Saura Jose Maria , Spano Donatella , Rizi Vincenzo , Marzano Frank Silvio , Luigi Rossi Francesco , Liberatore Silvio , Casinghini Mauro , Rossi Giuliano , Tomassetti Barbara
Published: July 2022

About 10000 hectares of forest, corresponding to the 12% of the national forestry heritage, are lost each year in Italy due to arson or negligent fires. Consequences on ecosystem and natural equilibrium are relevant, since the time for the natural restoration process may take several decades. Climate extremes exacerbates Mediterranean area fire risk, due to prolonged drought conditions. On the other hand, hydrogeological risk is also expected to increase over burnt slopes, where surface runoff is incremented due vegetation loss. According to the current legislation, fire risk management is in charge of the Italian Regional Civil Protection, therefore the development of user-oriented tools, able to prevent the fire hazardous conditions, is key element to ensure the forest-fire risk management. In the proposed model, the atmospheric conditions preceding a forest fire are estimated thought the combination of air temperature and relative humidity, as reference of atmospheric parameters.The approach assesses how many times the observed air temperature and RH of the previous 12 days area above the critical conditions (i.e., >25°C and < 50%, respectively). The model validation is carried out by using a three-years dataset of forest fires, that hit the Abruzzo region from 2018 to 2020, combined with meteorological data from civil protection gauges’ network. The developed index identified fire-precursors in the 80% of selected case studies. The missing 20% is manly related to the meteorological uncertainty in poorly gauged areas. Starting from the index validation, a pre-operational tool forced with ECMWF analyses is also described.
Hydro-geological risk prediction: the operational activity in Abruzzo Region for the rainfall-induced landslides forecasting.
Authors: Tomassetti Barbara , Colaiuda Valentina , Boscaino Giancarlo , Tuccella Paolo , Lidori Raffaele , Di Antonio Ludovico , Rossi Francesco Luigi , Memmo Adelaide , Liberatore Silvio , Lombardi Annalina
Published: July 2022

Hydrogeological hazard and its related risk prediction is becoming increasingly important in the context of climate change. Since extreme meteorological events, such as drought and intense rainfall, are expected to increase, the continuous update of the Early Warning Systems (EWSs) is particularly challenging, in the context of Civil Protection activities.  The new regulations concerning the organization of the Civil Protection distributed Service strongly reiterates the role of the collaboration with the scientific community, in order to ensure the EWS adaptation to deal with environmental changes. Scientists are called to convert up-do-date research findings to products available to end-users. On the other hand, civil protection should encourage scientific collaborations, with the aim of providing useful and user-friendly instruments to its operators, to increase the effectiveness of risk prediction and early intervention. In this context, the World Meteorological Organization recommends as sample products should be readily available for potential customers. From this conception, the rainfall-triggered landslides prediction system presented in this work was set-up by the Centre of Excellence CETEMPS for the Abruzzo Region Civil Protection institutional activities. The landslides forecasting system is based on the use of the Cetemps Hydrological Model (CHyM), coupled with different meteorological observations (gauges network, weather radar or satellites) and forecasts from limited area models. The landslide hazard is then given at hourly basis over the whole region, as well as, selected areas at risk, though the use of a stress index based on different thresholds.
Identification of the most fire susceptible areas in Portugal 
Authors: Páscoa Patrícia , Ermitão Tiago , M. Gouveia Célia
Published: July 2022

Mediterranean European countries are considered fire-prone regions, being affected by fire events every summer, and Portugal is among these countries. Moreover, Portugal has been recording large burned areas over the last 20 years. Catastrophic fire season occurrence, associated with hot and dry conditions and high fuel availability in forests, has been recurrently destroying several ecosystems. Furthermore, the Mediterranean basin has been stated with high potential to be one of the most disturbed areas due to climate change, which strongly promotes the increase of fire weather conditions and fire risk and, thereby, the occurrence of more extreme fire seasons.

During the last years, Portugal has been implementing new effective policies regarding the prevention of fires during pre-fire season months, improving the investment in combat strategies. In this context, our study contributes to identify the regions with more potential to burn in a specific fire season. Through satellite-based data and reanalysis products, with large temporal extent and moderate to high spatial resolution, we combine a wide range of variables linked, directly or indirectly, with fire, in order to identify the most exposed regions to burn.

The application of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to our range of climatological, ecological and biophysical parameters allowed to assess six different regions with more susceptibility to fire events. The central and the southernmost regions of the country presented a stronger signal on PCA analysis, indicating a higher exposure to future fire events. Fuel accumulation during several months, in conjunction with topography, land cover and fire weather conditions were the terms that explained the most variability of the first six PCAs. Therefore, with these results, our work addresses the key trigger parameters of fires, and the most susceptible areas to burn in Portugal, contributing to enhancing the effectiveness of fire prevention policies.

Acknowledgements: This study was supported by FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, Portugal) through national funds (PIDDAC) – UIDB/50019/2020, and under the projects FlorestaLimpa (PCIF/MOG/0161/2019) and FIRECAST (PCIF/GRF/0204/2017).      
Impact of wildfire emissions of PM2.5 and Black Carbon in southern Italy
Authors: Castagna Jessica , Senatore Alfonso , Bencardino Mariantonia , Pellis Guido , Vitullo Marina , Mendicino Giuseppe
Published: July 2022

The climate change induced-events are affecting the Mediterranean Sea through ever-increasing frequent and severe heatwaves and droughts, which are primary drivers for wildfires diffusion. This study aims to comprehensively investigate the wildfires' impact on emissions of PM2.5 and Black Carbon during fire seasons in southern Italy.  As a first step, the Lagrangian transport of emissions produced by wildfires and impacting two National Parks of the Calabria region, placed in the middle of the Mediterranean Sea, was estimated for a particularly severe fire season. PM2.5 and Black Carbon observations were taken from the Sila National Park at the Monte Curcio Global Atmosphere Watch (GAW) regional station and the Aspromonte National Park at the Mammola rural-regional background station. These observations were integrated with remote-sensing fire detections and the high-resolution WRF-HYSPLIT back-trajectories, which improved the model accuracy in the orographically complex region of Calabria. Moreover, we evaluated the wildfire impact on human health in terms of passively smoked cigarettes (PSC), related to PM2.5 and Black carbon measurements. Finally, we estimated the PM2.5 and Black Carbon emissions released during the whole analyzed fire season and assessed the uncertainties of remote sensing-based inventories by comparing the temporal and spatial behavior of the last version of the satellite-based Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED4s) with the more accurate ground-based wildfire emissions inventory produced by ISPRA (Institute for Environmental Protection and Research).
Hindcast high-resolution simulation of the most catastrophic rainfall event in Genoa City (7-8 October 1970): hydro-meteorological and geomorphological analysis
Authors: Parodi Antonio , Boni Giorgio , Faccini Francesco , Paliaga Guido
Published: July 2022

Liguria region is historically affected by severe hydro-meteorological events often resulting in dramatic death tolls and large socio-economic impacts. On 7-8 October 1970, Genoa, region capital city, was struck by the most catastrophic flood event of its history. On the evening of 7 October pre-frontal storms affected the western side of the city (Voltri, Prà and Pegli municipalities), while on 8 October 1970 an anticyclone block generated recurring convective systems that hit Genoa city and above all the Bisagno Valley. The heavy rainfall continued more than 24 h with highs at Bolzaneto rain gauge (Polcevera Valley, northwest of Genoa city center) where over 950 mm of rainfall in 24 hours was measured. Over the city center and the Bisagno Valley, 400 mm in 24 h was recorded. The Bisagno stream channels overflowed, submerging the city center. The 1970 event in Genoa City was also the most dramatic in terms of damage: 44 fatalities occurred and over 2000 individuals were evacuated.

This study hindcasts the meteorological evolution of this event at high spatial resolution (1.5 km) and temporal one (1 hour) using the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model by downscaling the ERA5 climatology developed by European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF). The weather hindcast scenario is compared with available meteorological observations as well as with recorded geomorphological impacts on Genoa city center and municipalities.
Risk assessment and vulnerability evaluation of cultural landscapes exposed to extreme events linked to climate change: the Wachau case study
Authors: Sardella Alessandro , Canesi Linda , Cacciotti Riccardo , Kaiser Anna , Bonazza Alessandra
Published: July 2022

It is widely recognized that climate change is creating continuous and new challenges for the protection and conservation of cultural heritage and it is foreseen that the frequency and intensity of extreme events such as heavy rain, flooding, prolonged drought periods, are likely to increase in the near and far future throughout Europe.

The present contribution aims to study the Wachau valley in Austria, taken as example of cultural terraced landscape exposed to climate change related challenges, and especially to its risk assessment and vulnerability evaluation. In order to do that, methodologies and tools developed within the Interreg Central Europe project STRENCH (STRENgthening resilience of Cultural Heritage at risk in a changing environment) were exploited, particularly the “Risk mapping tool for cultural heritage protection, WebGIS tool”. Methodology for vulnerability ranking, time series based on earth observation data (e.g. Copernicus C3S reanalysis products) and future hazard maps at territorial level based on outputs from regional and global climate models (EURO Cordex experiment) available within the WebGIS Tool were mainly applied and exploited.

Outcomes include a numerical quantification of the vulnerability for two dry-stone wall terraced areas taken into consideration and climate projections of the changes of the extreme indices R20mm, R95pTOT and Rx5day with spatial resolution of 12x12 km for the near (2021-2050) and far (2071-2100) future, under stabilizing (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios. A general increase of the three indices in the two investigated areas in the far future under the pessimistic scenario is foreseen, highlighting a high likelihood of heavy rain and flooding risk. The results obtained could therefore support policy and decision-makers in defining strategies for the protection of cultural heritage, assisting local stakeholders in improving their know-how on the process of defining priorities of intervention (preparedness / emergency / recovery).
Climate suitability analysis in the context of EFSA Pest Risk Assessment. Amyelois transitella, the navel-orange worm, as a case study
Authors: Campese Caterina , Czwienczek Ewelina , Stancanelli Giuseppe , van der Werf Wopke , Maiorano Andrea
Published: July 2022

The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) conducts plant pest risk assessment (PRA) under the mandate of the European Commission, the European Parliament and the Member States. The analysis of potential pest establishment is a key element of PRA and it is based on the presence of suitable hosts in the area under assessment and on the analysis of climate suitability for the pest. We aim to elucidate the climate suitability analysis process in the context of EFSA PRA, from literature search on pest distribution data and eco-physiology, to data extraction, data analysis, and application of climate suitability models. We detail the full process, applied to the polyphagous pest navel-orange worm Amyelois transitella (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae). Following two mandates of the European Commission, EFSA completed a pest categorisation of the navel-orange worm (EFSA, 2021) and it is currently conducting a PRA. For this case study, 771 scientific documents were collected and screened at title – abstract level, out of these 191 were screened as full-text. Ninety-seven studies were then selected for data extraction (out of which 69 containing information on the pest distribution and 51 on eco-physiology). Information on distribution included 160 geographical records, out of which 91 related to specific points with geographical coordinates and 69 related to different level of administrative units. Based on this information, climate suitability analysis was conducted applying a methodology based on the Köppen–Geiger climate classification, and the Climex model. A. transitella is currently present in North and South America, but absent from the EU territory. Preliminary results showed that, if the insect enters in the EU territory, it is more likely to establish in Southern and Mediterranean areas of the EU, where it could cause an impact on susceptible EU crops.
Response of modern fluvial sediments to regional tectonic activity along the Min River, Eastern Tibet
Authors: Shi Wei , Jiang Hanchao , Xu Hongyan , Ma Siyuan , Fan Jiawei , Zhang Siqi , Guo Qiaoqiao , Wei Xiaotong
Published: July 2022

Abstract. The deposition of fluvial sediments in tectonically active areas is mainly controlled by tectonics, climate, and associated Earth surface processes; consequently, fluvial sediments can provide a valuable record of changes in regional climate and tectonic activity. In this study, we conducted a detailed analysis of the grain‒size distribution in modern fluvial sediments from the upper Min River, Eastern Tibet. These data were combined with regional information about climate, vegetation, hydrology, geomorphology, lithology, and fault slip rate, and together indicate that modern regional tectonic activity along upper Min River can be divided into three segments. Specifically, fluvial sediments in the segment Ⅰ are dominated by fine silts (<63 μm: 70.2 %), agreeing with a low‒runoff and low‒rainfall in this segment and revealing a windblown origin influenced by the arid and windy climate. These observations are consistent with the segment’s low hillslope angle and low relief, all indicating weak activity along the Minjiang Fault. The coarse‒grained fraction (>250 μm) of fluvial sediments in the segments Ⅱ ‒ Ⅲ increases in a stepwise fashion (A = 6.2 %, B = 19.4 %, C = 33.8 %) downstream, although runoff and rainfall do not change significantly from segment Ⅱ to segment Ⅲ. These patterns correlate well with an increase in both regional relief and hillslope angles. Together, these observations imply that regional tectonic activity along Maoxian‒Wenchuan Fault becomes more pervasive downstream along the Min River. Fluvial sediments in segment Ⅳ are well sorted and well rounded, which is expected due to significant increases in rainfall and runoff in this segment. This study marks the first development of a new and important research approach that can characterize regional tectonic activity by analysis of fluvial sediments collected from tectonically active regions, combined with regional conditions in geology and geography.
Representation of the phosphorus cycle in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (vn5.5_JULES-CNP)
Authors: Nakhavali Mahdi André , Mercado Lina M. , Hartley Iain P. , Sitch Stephen , Cunha Fernanda V. , di Ponzio Raffaello , Lugli Laynara F. , Quesada Carlos A. , Andersen Kelly M. , Chadburn Sarah E. , Wiltshire Andy J. , Clark Douglas B. , Ribeiro Gyovanni , Siebert Lara , Moraes Anna C. M. , Schmeisk Rosa Jéssica , Assis Rafael , Camargo José L.
Published: July 2022

Abstract. Most land surface models (LSMs), i.e. the land components of Earth system models
(ESMs), include representation of nitrogen (N) limitation on ecosystem
productivity. However, only a few of these models have incorporated phosphorus
(P) cycling. In tropical ecosystems, this is likely to be important as N
tends to be abundant, whereas the availability of rock-derived elements, such as
P, can be very low. Thus, without a representation of P cycling, tropical
forest response in areas such as Amazonia to rising atmospheric CO2
conditions remain highly uncertain. In this study, we introduced P dynamics
and its interactions with the N and carbon (C) cycles into the Joint UK Land
Environment Simulator (JULES). The new model (JULES-CNP) includes the
representation of P stocks in vegetation and soil pools, as well as key
processes controlling fluxes between these pools. We develop and evaluate
JULES-CNP using in situ data collected at a low-fertility site in the
central Amazon, with a soil P content representative of 60 % of soils
across the Amazon basin, to parameterize, calibrate, and evaluate JULES-CNP.
Novel soil and plant P pool observations are used for parameterization and
calibration, and the model is evaluated against C fluxes and stocks and
those soil P pools not used for parameterization or calibration. We then
evaluate the model at additional P-limited test sites across the Amazon and in
Panama and Hawaii, showing a significant improvement over the C- and CN-only
versions of the model. The model is then applied under elevated
CO2 (600 ppm) at our study site in the central Amazon to quantify the impact
of P limitation on CO2 fertilization. We compare our results against the
current state-of-the-art CNP models using the same methodology that was used
in the AmazonFACE model intercomparison study. The model is able to
reproduce the observed plant and soil P pools and fluxes used for evaluation
under ambient CO2. We estimate P to limit net primary productivity
(NPP) by 24 % under current CO2 and by 46 % under elevated
CO2. Under elevated CO2, biomass in simulations accounting for CNP
increase by 10 % relative to contemporary CO2 conditions, although it
is 5 % lower compared to CN- and C-only simulations. Our results
highlight the potential for high P limitation and therefore lower CO2 fertilization capacity in the Amazon rainforest with low-fertility soils.
Clouds drive differences in future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves
Authors: Kittel Christoph , Amory Charles , Hofer Stefan , Agosta Cécile , Jourdain Nicolas C. , Gilbert Ella , Le Toumelin Louis , Vignon Étienne , Gallée Hubert , Fettweis Xavier
Published: July 2022

Abstract. Recent warm atmospheric conditions have damaged the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula through surface melt and hydrofracturing and could potentially initiate future collapse of other Antarctic ice shelves. However, model projections with similar greenhouse gas scenarios suggest large differences in cumulative 21st-century surface melting. So far it remains unclear whether these differences are due to variations in warming rates in individual models or whether local feedback mechanisms of the surface energy budget could also play a notable role. Here we use the polar-oriented regional climate model MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional) to study the physical mechanisms that would control future surface melt over the Antarctic ice shelves in high-emission scenarios RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5. We show that clouds enhance future surface melt by increasing the atmospheric emissivity and longwave radiation towards the surface. Furthermore, we highlight that differences in meltwater production for the same climate warming rate depend on cloud properties and particularly cloud phase. Clouds containing a larger amount of supercooled liquid water lead to stronger melt, subsequently favouring the absorption of solar radiation due to the snowmelt–albedo feedback. As liquid-containing clouds are projected to increase the melt spread associated with a given warming rate, they could be a major source of uncertainties in projections of the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise.
Environmental spaces for palsas and peat plateaus are disappearing at a circumpolar scale
Authors: Könönen Oona Helena , Karjalainen Olli , Aalto Juha , Luoto Miska , Hjort Jan
Published: July 2022

Abstract. The anthropogenic climate change threatens northern permafrost environments. This compromises the existence of permafrost landforms, such as palsas and peat plateaus, which have been assessed to be critically endangered habitats. In this study, for the first time we integrated geospatial datasets and statistical methods, to model the distribution of palsas and peat plateaus across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region. The models were calibrated using data from years 1950–2000. The effects of climate change on the future distribution of palsas were assessed by using moderate and high emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways; RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively) for two periods (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). Hotspots for palsas and peat plateaus occurred in Northern Europe, Western Siberia, and subarctic Canada. Climate change was predicted to cause an almost complete loss (˗98.2 %) of suitable environmental spaces under a high emissions scenario by 2061–2080, while under a moderate emissions scenario 89.3 % were predicted to disappear. The comparison with previously published thermokarst data supported our findings regarding the recent degradation of palsa and peat plateau environments. Our results fill the knowledge gaps in the distribution of the permafrost landforms in less studied areas such as Central and Eastern Siberia. In addition, the projections provide insights into the changing geoecological conditions of the circumpolar region with important implications for greenhouse gas emissions.
La conflictualité productive chez Ricœur
Authors: Nicolaï Jean-Paul
Published: July 2022

Deeper still than that of the differend, we find in Lyotard the concept of discrepancy, which underlines the welcome alterity in the encounter with others. We propose an understanding of Ricœurian anthropology based on this idea, when it is associated with another concept, that of ergodicity, which makes it possible to think the same in the discrepancy. We illustrate it with the trial and the act of judging. We then show that the Ricœurian process of putting rival thoughts into dialogue stems from this anthropology, and that Ricœur presents full coherence. For this, another concept is introduced which describes the mechanism of understanding always restarted, in the sense that each new thought must be able to be encompassed in the gaze cast on the world. Encompassing is a concept in modelling disciplines, which is difficult to translate into French. To illustrate this, we take as an example Ricœur’s “debate” with Jakobson in The Rule of Metaphor.
Introduction – Ricœur et la question du conflit
Authors: Marcelo Gonçalo
Published: July 2022

Introduction to the special issue about "Ricœur on Conflict"
The Ural Population Project. Demography and Culture From Microdata in a European-Asian Border Region
Authors: Glavatskaya Elena , Borovik Julia , Thorvaldsen Gunnar
Published: July 2022

The Ural Population Project (URAPP) is built from individual level data transcriptions of 19th- to early 20th-century parish records and mid-19th-century census-like tax revisions manuscripts. This article discusses the source material, the contents, the history of creation and the strategy of the URAPP database and the outcome of the main research topics so far, including historical demography, Jewish studies, indigenous studies and studies of religious minorities in the Urals and Siberia. Our studies of the ethno-religious cultural landscape of the Urals and northwestern Siberia as well as participation in population history projects was more vital backgrounds than the traditional focus on aggregates. The over 65,000 vital events transcribed from parish records of Russian Orthodox Churches and minority religions in and around Ekaterinburg have been the basis for studies of mortality, nuptiality, religion and other characteristics. We found that the Jewish population kept their traditions and connections with relatives in the Pale of Settlement. Prisoners of WWI usually marrying within their own religious group. Infant mortality in Ekaterinburg was lower among Jews and the Catholics, minorities with higher education and western background, while the Orthodox majority exposed their newborn to extremely tough baptism. The burial records show cases of the Spanish flu in 1918–1919, but on a lower level than in the West, supporting recent theories that estimates of flu mortality may be too high. Based on the tax revisions, polygyny was officially recognized among the indigenous Siberian people. The strategy of the URAPP project has evolved from transcribing microdata about minorities towards covering the whole population.
PENYELESAIAN SENGKETA MEREK TERDAFTAR DAN MEREK TERKENAL DALAM MEWUJUDKAN PERLINDUNGAN HUKUM
Authors: Gunawan Yusuf
Published: July 2022

Hak Kekayaan Intelektual (HKI) atau Intellectual Property Right (IPR) akan menjadi isu global, khususnya di kalangan negara-negara yang selama ini melakukan perdagangan produk berbasis Hak Kekayaan Intelektual karena Hak Kekayaan Intelektual menjadi bagian yang sangat penting dalam proses perdagangan internasional maupun domestik, karena setiap barang dan jasa sebagai produk perdagangan selalu melekat suatu nama atau entitas tertentu yang membedakan antara satu produk dengan produk yang lainnya. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah penelitian hukum yuridis normatif yaitu bahan hukum, disamping itu juga digunakan bahan hukum primer sebagai pendukung bahan hukum sekunder dan untuk analisa bahan hukum dilakukan dengan metoda analisis yuridis kualitatif.Hasil penelitian dan pembahasan mendapatkan beberapa kesimpulan yaitu  pertama, dalam mewujudkan perlindungan hukum di Indonesia atas Merek Terdaftar dan Merek Terkenal berdasarkan asas first to file harus mendapat perlindungan hukum yang sama di Indonesia dan yang kedua adalah sebagai penemuan hukum atas penyelesaian sengketa merek yaitu perlu adanya rekonstruksi norma hukum yang belumdiatur dalam UU MIG yaitu pada penjelasan pasal 20 yang telah diubah dengan UU No 11 Tahun 2020 tentang Cipta Kerja tentang kriteria daya pembeda, kemudian pada penjelasan pasal 21 ayat 1b tentang kriteria merek terkenal dan perubahan pasal 21 tentang merek yang ditolak jika sama jenis barang dan/ atau jasa dengan merek terkenal.
Estereotipos, género y derecho. Apuntes para introducir una discusión
Authors: Parolari Paola
Published: July 2022

Esta breve reflexión introduce la discusión sobre el artículo de Ghidoni y Morondo titulado El papel de los estereotipos en las formas de la desigualdad compleja: algunos apuntes desde la teoría feminista del derecho antidiscriminatorio. En particular, después de señalar las aportaciones más interesantes e innovadoras de la propuesta de las autoras, se indicarán algunas cuestiones abiertas, a partir de las observaciones de las comentaristas Peroni y Ronconi, aunque sin limitarse a ellas. Sin embargo, preliminarmente, se ofrecerán unas breves consideraciones, por un lado, sobre la compleja relación entre derecho y estereotipos y, por otro lado, sobre las posibles aportaciones específicas de la perspectiva de género en el análisis de esta relación.
New data on the geochemical and mineralogical features of the main manganese- and iron-bearing ore occurrences in the Central Srednogorie Zone, Bulgaria
Authors: Chavdarova Silvia , Stavrev Milen , Hikov Atanas , Peytcheva Irena
Published: July 2022

The main goal of the present study is the characterization of the mineralogical and geochemical features of polymetallic (Mn- and Fe-bearing) nodules, lens- and layer-like bodies from different localities in the central part of the Late Cretaceous Srednogorie metallogenic zone, Bulgaria. The research is based on field studies, sampling and optical microscopy, followed by a combination of analytical techniques: XRD, SEM-EDS, ICP-OES and LA-ICP-MS methods. They define pyrolusite as the main ore mineral of the studied occurrences, while manganite, todorokite, bixbyite, sarkinite, hematite and hauerite are rarer. The most common gangue minerals are quartz, calcite and zeolites. Based on the MnO/SiO2 ratio, the established minerals are divided into two groups: manganese (i) and silica-manganese (ii) phases, respectively. Their trace element composition is dominated by a high content of V, Zn, Mo, W, Co, Ni, Cu, As, Tl and Sr, whereas some of them belong to the group of the critical raw materials for high-tech products. The measured values for Y and rare earth elements of the studied oxides and hydroxides are low compared to their concentrations in modern polymetallic nodules of the Pacific Ocean. Chondrite-normalized patterns indicated weak LREE enrichment with respect to MREEs and HREEs, which are slightly depleted. Common weak to strong negative Ce anomaly, accompanied by various Sm and Eu anomalies, is also observed. The close proximity of the Late Cretaceous volcanic rocks to the Mn- and Fe-bearing ore mineralization and some structural and textural features of the studied minerals suggest hydrothermal origin of the main Mn-Fe ore occurrences in the Panagyurishte area.
Pengaruh Budaya Organisasi Terhadap Kinerja Pegawai Dalam Mewujudkan Efektivitas Pencapaian Program Pengembangan Desa Wisata Di Dinas Pariwisata Dan Kebudayaan Kabupaten Garut
Authors: Peridiansah Sopi
Published: July 2022

Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi permasalahan yang dihadapi Dinas Pariwisata dan Kebudayaan Kabupaten, seperti keterpurukan program pembangunan desa wisata. Kinerja pegawai belum optimal karena budaya organisasi yang belum optimal dan efektivitas pelaksanaan program pengembangan desa wisata yang belum optimal. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk menganalisis pengaruh budaya organisasi terhadap kinerja pegawai dalam rangka mewujudkan efektivitas pelaksanaan program pengembangan desa wisata. Metode survei yang digunakan dalam survei ini adalah metode analisis deskriptif dengan menggunakan metode survei, wawancara, observasi dan survei dokumenter. Teknik analisis data yang digunakan untuk menjawab hipotesis penelitian ini adalah statistika dengan menggunakan model analisis jalur. Populasi dan responden dalam survei ini adalah pegawai Dinas Pariwisata dan Kebudayaan Kabupaten Garth yang bekerja minimal selama lima tahun terakhir, dengan metode sampling jenuh sebanyak 40 responden. Hasil pengujian hipotesis utama menunjukan nilai Fhitung lebih besar dari Ftabel 14,0896 > 2,0281. Dari nilai tersebut diperoleh keputusan bahwa H0 ditolak dan H1 diterima, artinya variabel budaya organisasi (X) berpengaruh terhadap variabel kenerja pegawai (Y) dan variabel efektivitas pencapaian program pengemabangan desa wisata (Z). Adapun besaran pengaruh dari variabel bebas sebesar 95,23% sedangkan sisanya 4,77% dipengaruhi oleh variabel lain yang tidak diteliti (epsilon).
Sekiz Kentin Hikayesi: Türkiye’de Yeni Yerellik ve Yeni Orta Sınıflar
Authors: YAVUZ Çiğdem
Published: July 2022

E. Fuat Keyman ve Berrin Koyuncu-Lorasdağı’nın “Sekiz Kentin Hikayesi: Türkiye’de Yeni Yerellik ve Orta Sınıflar” eseri kentleşme, orta sınıflar olgusu ve neoliberalizm olgusunun birbirleri ile ilişkilerini anlatmaktadır. E. Fuat Keyman ve Berrin Koyuncu-Lorasdağı bu kitabı 2010 yılında literatüre kazandırdıkları “Kentler: Anadolu’nun Dönüşümü, Türkiye’nin Geleceği” eserinin bir devamı olarak yayımlamış ve ülkemizin çeşitli bölgelerinden sekiz kenti, ekonominin şehirlere etkisi üzerinden örneklendirmiştir. Bu örneklendirmeyi yaparken şehirleri sosyolojik, demografik, siyasal, kültürel, etnik ve din bağlamında inceleyerek ekonomi ile ilişkilendirmiştir. Hızla kentleşen ülkemizi yeni yerellik bağlamında anlamlandırabilmek için mekan ile sermaye arasında kurulan bağı, sermayenin yükselişi ile ortaya çıkan orta sınıflaşmayı, orta sınıflaşmanın ise kültürel ve sosyal hayattaki izlerini sekiz kent üzerinden incelemiştir. Bunlara ek olarak bazı kentler için 2016 OHAL dönemi ve sonrasında yaşanan kayyum atamalarına da değinerek güncel veriler paylaşılmıştır. Eser birincil ve ikincil kaynaklardan elde edilen veriler ile oluşturulmuştur. Birincil kaynak olarak, araştırmaya konu olan kentlerin belediye, valilik, ticaret ve sanayi odaları, teknokentler, üniversite yayınları, Kalkınma Ajansı raporları, günlük gazeteler, TÜİK verileri ve Türkiye’de kentlere dair yapılan araştırmalar analiz edilerek hazırlanmıştır. Kullanılan ikincil kaynaklar ise dünyada ve ülkemizde yazılmış olan kent, politik ekonomi ve yerel yönetim kitaplarının taranması ile oluşturulmuştur. Bu eser, kentlerin ekonomi temelli yaşadığı hızlı değişimleri bizlere aktararak literatüre önemli bir katkı sağlamaktadır.
К истории изучения афинского неоплатонизма в современной историографии
Authors: Денисова Ирина Викторовна
Published: July 2022

В истории позднеантичной мысли и интеллектуальной традиции особое место занимают Афины как интеллектуальная и образовательная метрополия. Афинские высшие школы и интеллектуалы стали главным оплотом позднеантичной традиции, в том числе с использованием языческих религиозных практик в ямвлиховской версии неоплатонизма. Это сделало Афины оплотом язычества до конца 1-й трети VI века. В современной зарубежной историографии (с 1990-х гг.) наблюдается пристальный интерес к позднеантичным интеллектуалам, в частности к афинским. За последнюю четверть века вышли несколько монографий и ряд аналитических статей. В целом большинство ученых ныне признает важную роль афинских философов ранневизантийского времени в процессе культурного континуитета. С другой стороны, афинский ямвлиховский неоплатонизм ко 2-й пол. VI в. сошел с исторической сцены, уступив место более компромиссному александрийскому.
Общественные волнения в ранневизантийских городах: от Константина до Феодосия I (по данным «Церковных историй»)
Authors: Руднева Мария Александровна
Published: July 2022

Статья посвящена изучению роли общественных волнений в ранневизантийское время. Города являлись ключевыми центрами политической, социально-экономической и культурной жизни империи. Авторы произведений в жанре церковной истории довольно подробно описали городские конфликты в контексте религиозно-политических реалий. Произведения в этом жанре представляют обширный материал для разностороннего анализа причин, хода и последствий нестабильности в городах Восточной Римской империи. В ранневизантийское время волнения и конфликты стали происходить чаще, чем ранее. Это было связано как с внутренними процессами – неравномерностью социально-экономического развития, борьбой за гегемонию между разными религиозно-политическими объединениями и этно-конфессиональными сообществами, так и с внешними факторами – напряженностью в отношении с соседними государствами, военными столкновениями и т. д. Волнения и конфликты в восточных городах являются ярким проявлением противоречий ранневизантийского времени.
Индийский национальный конгресс в годы правления лорда Элгина (1894–1898)
Authors: Никитин Дмитрий Сергеевич
Published: July 2022

Рассматриваются проблемы развития и деятельности Индийского национального конгресса (ИНК) в годы правления в Британской Индии вице-короля лорда Элгина. На основе отчетов о ежегодных сессиях ИНК реконструируются позиция Конгресса в отношении политики Элгина, особенности взаимоотношений ИНК и власти в конце XIX в., основные направления деятельности ИНК в Великобритании (нашедшие свое выражение в работе Британского комитета ИНК и Индийского парламентского комитета) и Индии. Сделаны выводы о неудовлетворенности Конгресса политикой Элгина, нарастании противоречий между разными течениями внутри индийского национального движения.