bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Informalisation of Women's Work: Consequence for Fertility and
Child Schooling in Urban Pakistan
Authors: Kazi Shahnaz , Sathar Zeba A.
Published: August 2018

Female employment is considered an important means of lowering
fertility through ways such as raising the age at marriage, through
influencing desired family size and also through better knowledge and
use of contraceptives. Increasing female labour force participation is
frequently recommended as a critical policy measure for reducing the
birth rate. However the significant inverse relationship between
employment and fertility found for developed countries is weak or absent
in the case of developing countries [Rodriguez and Cleland (1980)]. More
recent evidence indicates that it is not so much employment per se but
type of employment which is a critical determinant of reproductive
behaviour [United Nations (1985)]. It has been shown that while high
status professional jobs are associated with greater influence on
women's domestic autonomy and fertility, low paying jobs lead to an
increasing burden of work with entirely different implications for
fertility and other household related behaviour. In the context of
Pakistan, despite two decades of industrial growth and development,
official data sources show stagnant and low levels of female labour
force participation rates (LFPR) in urban Pakistan. The LFPR for urban
women ranged between 3 and 5 percent for the period between 1971 and
1988. Data collection methods of government agencies are known to
greatly underestimate female labour force participation (FLFP)
particularly in rural areas and in the urban informal sector where the
distinction between productive and domestic activities tends to be
ambivalent. Evidence from micro surveys indicates, on the contrary, an
increasing influx of women in the urban labour market, particularly in
the informal sector [Sathar and Kazi (1988); Shaheed and Mumtaz (1981);
Bilquees and Hamid (1989)]. A large number are shown to be working in
home-based piece-rate employment while domestic service mainly as
sweepers, washerwomen, maids,
etc.................................
Uneducated and Unhealthy: The Plight of Women in Pakistan
Authors: S. Ibraz Tassawar , Fatima Anjum
Published: August 2018

The title of this paper is self-explanatory. It discusses
underinvestment in female education and health and the deleterious
effects this has on not only women themselves but on the future
generation which women bring forth and nourish. This underinvestment is
more pronounced in the rural areas of Pakistan where the bulk of the
population resides and where low levels of education, lack of awareness
and access to medical facilities pose a major threat to the development
of a healthy and productive society. Combining macro-level data on
population growth rates, female mortality and literacy with two
micro-level studies based on extensive participant observation and
in-depth interviewing in two Punjabi villages, the data presented in the
paper aims to sensitise the readers of the realities of women's social
existance and of the complexities of female neglect specifically in
terms of education and health. The paper also highlights some of the
dominant cultural notions regarding women which become instrumental in
hampering women's access to education, information and other structures
of power. The confinement of women to narrow domestic and powerless
domains has far-reaching and negative consequences of which statistics
portray a picture.
Economic Development and Development Economics (Presidential
Address)
Authors: Naqvi Syed Nawab Haider
Published: August 2018

To state that development economics is about economic
development is now considered beyond debate. But opinions differ about
what constitutes economic development and its proper index; in
particular whether the growth of per capita income adequately captures
its flavour. Thus, instead of being regarded, a La Lewis, as just a
synonym for capital accumulation going above a certain critical level,
development economics is now also required to respond to such challenges
as raising the quality of life that people succeed in achieving by
living longer; by being more literate in addition to being more
prosperous; and, environmentally speaking, by making the development
process sustainable. Indeed, our discipline is being asked to encompass
an ever wider set of problems and venture into domains where it has not
entered before: namely, the choices that people make; the economic and
political freedoms they enjoy; the heavy incidence of poverty among the
least privileged in the society, including the rural poor; the unjust
social and economic structures that must be changed; the regulatory
framework that needs to be evolved to enable the market to
work-hopefully in the interest of the society. What complicates matters
even more is that to be able to address many of these issues,
development economics must transcend the self-imposed boundaries of
strict positivism and acquire an overarching ethical vision. If
mainstream economics is (rightly) regarded as a difficult science,
development economics is even more so.
Underinvestment in Education: How Much Growth has Pakistan
Foregone? (The Distinguishedl Lecture)
Authors: Birdsall Nancy , Ross David , Sabot Richard
Published: August 2018

In this paper we address the following question: How great
have been the costs to Pakistan, in tenns of income growth foregone over
the last three decades, of relatively low investments in education, and
especially in the education of girls? We use the results of an
econometric analysis of the relationship between education and economic
growth in a cross-section of countries to compare Pakistan's actual rate
of growth and recent levels of output with what they might have been had
Pakistan achieved education enrollment rates observed in three rapidly
growing East Asian economies: Indonesia, Republic of Koreal and
Malaysia. Our analysis suggests that foregone income growth has been
large. For example, if female enrollment in primary school had been as
high as male enrollment in 196~i.e. 46 percent instead of 13 percent, we
estimate that Pakistan's 1985 per capita income would have been more
than 15 percent greater than it was. (In 1960, male enrollment rates in
primary school in Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia were 58,83 and 89
percent, respectively.) We recognise that education investments have
social as well as economic benefits, e.g. the lower infant mortality
rates of better-educated mothers, and that gains in income growth alone
are a poor measure of overall development.
The Demand for Financial Assets in Pakistan
Authors: Akhtar Sajjad , Manzoor Sajid
Published: August 2018

In recent years Pakistan has moved to liberalise its financial
and capital markets. Consequently the reforms will place heavy demand on
the instruments of monetary policy to regulate the working of financial
markets. Interest rate policy as a component of monetary policy not only
determines the allocation of resources between assets but also within
each class of assets. Given the scant research on intra-asset response
to intertemporal interest rate movements, the present paper fills the
gap by studying the determinants of financial assets and quantifies
intra-asset substitutability within a system-wide portfolio framework.
Using a simplified version of Brainard and Tobin (1968) model, we
explain the asset holdings in terms of wealth and interest rates. We
test the model on quarterly holdings of five assets, i.e., saving and
fixed deposits, khas deposits, national deposit certificates and defence
saving certificates. Asset substitutability is ascertained by single
equation OLS, FIML (Iterative 3SLS) and restricted FIML estimation
techniques. The system-wide restricted model performs according to a
priori expectations. Own interest rate effect is positive and
significant in three of the four equations. Five of the six
off-diagonals are negative, and three are statistically significant.
Saving and fixed deposits exhibit weak complementarity. Khas deposit and
national deposit certificates are strong substitutes. The model is also
used to decompose the change in portfolio share due to wealth, interest
rate and residual components.
Real Wages of the Federal Government Employees: Trends from
1977-78 to 1991-92
Authors: Bilquees Faiz
Published: August 2018

This paper examines the trends in aggregate emoluments of the
Federal Government Employees over the period 1977-78 to 1991-92. Levels
of salary and allowances are very important factors in attracting and
retaining good-quality human resources in any sector of employment in an
economy because they have a direct bearing on the motivation and
performance of the employees. In Pakistan, despite tbe fact that
government is still the largest employer. the real wages of the
government servants have continuously declined over time; the top five
grades are the worst-affected. Despite periodic revision of salaries,
the successive pay commissions have failed to acknowledge some very
obvious anomalies in the basic pay and allowances structures. These
anomalies not only harm the interests of the employees, their cost to
the national exchequer is also quite significant. The paper aims to
provide greater awareness of the weaknesses of the existing salary
structures so that they can be reformed. It makes strong recommendations
on the revision of the existing patterns of renumeration, to the
advantage of both the employer and the employee.
Macroeconomic Effects of Adjustment Lending in Pakistan
Authors: Iqbal Zafar
Published: August 2018

During the 1970s and early 1980s, many developing countries
faced macroeconomic problems, notably large fiscal deficits, vulnerable
balance of payments positions, increasing inflation rates, lower rates
of domestic savings, and as a consequence lower capital formation and
economic growth rates. The major financial lending institutions,
preeminently the W orId Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
argue that the present macroeconomic problems in less developed
countries (LDCs) are due to structural maladjustments-poor economic
policies and weak institutions. Therefore, since 1980, these donor
agencies have been proposing Structural Adjustment Programmes (SAPs) and
Sectoral Adjustment Programmes (SECAPs) associated with Structural
Adjustment Lending (SALs) and Sectoral Adjustment Lending (SECALs),
respectively. These programmes focus on broader macroeconomic adjustment
policies. The disbursement of SALs and SECALs are, how~ver, conditional
upon the recipient countries adopting economic policies specified by the
staff of the World Bank and the IMF.
Empirical Tests of the Rational Expectations - Permanent Income
Hypothesis: Evidence from Pakistan
Authors: Khalid Ahmad H.
Published: August 2018

The permanent income hypothesis postulates that at a given
point in time, an individual's consumption is determined by his lifetime
resources and not by his income. Thus, the hypothesis suggests that an
individual's consumption will respond only to changes in permanent
income. The insertion of the rational expectations theory into
Friedman's permanent income hypothesis by Hall (1978),-called the
Rational Expectations/Permanent Income Hypothesis (thereafter
RE/PIH)changed this view, and suggested that current aggregate
consumption is determined only by its own lag. Any information that may
help in determining current consumption is already included in last
period's consumption. Hence consumption follows a random walk. The
testable implication of Hall's hypothesis is that apart from the current
period's consumption expenditure, any variable observable in this or
earlier periods should not show any predictive power for the next
period's consumption expenditure. Therefore, additional lagged values of
consumption or any other variable that can reasonably be assumed to be
in the consumer's information set at time t should not be statistically
significant if regressed over current consumption.
Impact of Devaluation on Pakistan's External Trade: An
Econometric Approach
Authors: Hasan M. Aynul , Khan Ashfaque H.
Published: August 2018

Exchange rate policy to improve external competitiveness has
now become the centre piece of any adjustment effort. It is expected
that a nominal devaluation will result in expenditure switching,
increased production of tradeable, higher exports, and in an improvement
of the external accounts of the country in question. Recently, the
traditional stabilisation packages, and especially their devaluation
component, have come under attack by a number of authors.! It has been
argued that devaluation can be counterproductive because exports and
imports are relatively insensitive to price and exchange rate changes,
especially in developing and semi-industrialised countries.2.3 If the
price elasticities of imports and exports are sufficiently low, the
trade balance expressed in domestic currency may worsen. Grubel (1976)
has argued that a country's persistent payments imbalances can be due
only to faulty monetary policy and cannot be corrected by either
devaluation (exchange rate policy) or the use of fIscal policy. In a
recent article, Miles (1979) claims to have provided the requisite
evidence to support Grubel's argument. Miles (1979) shows that
devaluation does not improve the trade balance but improves the balance
of payments. This results implies that the improvement comes through the
capital account.
Why Children do not Go to School in PakistanSome Estimates and a
Theoretical Framework
Authors: Mahmood Moazam , Javaid Tarlo , Baig Almal
Published: August 2018

Pakistan has a grave problem of human capital. The majority of
our children tend not to go to school. Instead they go to work. Policy
on education and child labour has been clearly deficient in Pakistan.
This policy failure, we feel is due to analytical deficiency in
understanding the determinants and impact of children's schooling and
labour. The theoretical framework of this study is based on five
arguments. 1. Schooling, and child labour, are two aspects of the the
same problem, the problem of why children do not go to school. Schooling
and child labour are both the result of one decision-making process,
whether to send a child to school, or to work. 2. Mainstream literature
on Pakistan does not consider the impact of this household
decision-making about children's schooling and labour on the aggregate
labour market. 3. Mainstream literature on Pakistan further does not
consider the impact of child labour on the labour market for women. 4.
Mainstream literature also does not consider yet another impact of
household decision-making about children's schooling and labour on
fertility behaviour. ·5. These three processes, household
decision-making about children, the impact on the labour market, and the
impact on fertility, combine to give a perverse signalling mechanism
that tends to depress children's schooling, increase child labour,
depress adult employment especially for women, and increase fertility
rates. So policy failure in Pakistan, may in large part be due to the
inability to understand these three processes, and their combination in
a perverse signalling mechanism.
A Micro Analysis of Urban Child Labour: Some Determinants of
Labour and its Conditions
Authors: Hamid Shahnaz
Published: August 2018

This paper focuses on (1) The estimation of urban child
labour, (2) Analysis of its determinants, (3) Analysis of some of its
conditions and their sectoral determinants, and finally puts forward
some possible solutions. This paper is divided into four sections.
Section 2 explains the conceptual and analytical framework and describes
the data set. Section 3 analyses the empirical evidence and finally
Section 4 gives the conclusions and recommendations.
The Appropriateness of a Community-based Programme: A Case-study
of the AKRSP in Two Villages of Gilgit District
Authors: Nayab Durr-e- , Ibrahim Sabiha
Published: August 2018

With the abolition of Mirdom in 1972, social and economic
change picked up in the Northern Areas of Pakistan. Apart from the
government, the other significant agent of change has been the Aga Khan
Rural Support Programme (AKRSP). For any such programme to be successful
it is important that the programme is designed, implemented and managed,
keeping in view the local socio-economic conditions, ecology and, most
importantly, characteristics of the poor. This paper is based on a study
conducted in two villages, Rabat and Chaprote, in the Nagar Sub-division
of Gilgit District, in 1990-91.1 It seeks to examine the projects
launched by the AKRSP, the relevance of these projects to the local
context, and their performance at the micro-level.
Structure of Large-scale Manufacturing Industries of Pakistan
(1950-1988)
Authors: Rauf Shahnaz
Published: August 2018

Bain's (1951) paradigm provided a theoretical underpinning for
a great deal of the empirical work on the structure-conduct-performance
relationship in the past. The results of almost all the' earlier studies
lend support to the hypothesis. What it states is that the presence of
various "barriers to entry" to an industry determines its level of
concentration (structure). High levels of concentration in turn
facilitate co-operative price behaviour (conduct). This collusive
behaviour then leads to high profits (performance). The purpose of the
present pap~r is to examine the evolution of the structure of
manufacturing industry by tracing the pattern of changes, over time
(1970, 1978, 1984 and 1988) in some of the basic aspects of industrial
structure like (a) distribution of firm size and type of ownership; (b)
trends in aggregate concentration in manufacturing industry; (c) the
levels of concentration in individual industries; and (d) the average
size of establishment and plant size in Pakistan in relation to
international standards of average plant size.
Wages versus Fringe Benefits in the Large-scale Manufacturing
Sector of Pakistan
Authors: Mahmood Zafar , Qasim Mohammad Ali
Published: August 2018

In pursuit of its labour welfare policy and to provide
protection against certain contingencies, the government plays a crucial
role in introducing and encouraging the payment of fringe benefits.l The
proportion of total remunerations which make up fringe benefits is
influenced by preferential treatment under income tax laws.2 For
example, social security and employee's old-age benefits schemes are
financed, respectively, t~ough contributions by the employers at 7
percent and 5 percent of the wages of secured workers. These expenses
are reduced if an employer pays more in the form of fringe benefits than
wages. Some other gains, including reduction in labour turnover,
increase in labour productivity and creation of a favourable public
image of the enterprise encourage employers to offer fringe benefits
rather than wages. On the other hand, interests of labour unions are to
protect or to get an increase in thcic total pay package. Workers will
prefer fringe benefits if, with their introduction, net income rises and
savings are made by group purchases of some benefits. Thus, these
benefits affect decision of labour supply and demand, and enhance
welfare.
Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos: Application to Financial Markets in
Pakistan
Authors: Khiui Nasir M.
Published: August 2018

Recently there has been an increased interest in the theory of
chaos by macroeconomists and fmancial economists. Originating in the
natural sciences, applications of the theory have spread through various
fields including brain research, optics, metereology, and economics. The
attractiveness of chaotic dynamics is its ability to generate large
movements which appear to be random, with greater frequency than linear
models. Two of the most striking features of any macro-economic data are
its random-like appearance and its seemingly cyclical character. Cycles
in economic data have often been noticed, from short-run business
cycles, to 50 years Kodratiev waves. There have been many attempts to
explain them, e.g. Lucas (1975), who argues that random shocks combined
with various lags can give rise to phenomena which have the appearance
of cycles, and Samuelson (1939) who uses the familiar multiplier
accelerator model. The advantage of using non-linear difference (or
differential) equation models to explain the business cycle is that it
does not have to rely on ad hoc unexplained exogenous random
shocks.
The Determinants of Health Status: A Cross-Country
Analysis
Authors: Siddiqui Rehana , Mahmood Mir Annice
Published: August 2018

An analysis of health status is an important aspect of human
resource development. Improvements in health do not only improve the
productivity of the labour force, but they also help to improve the
impact of other forms of human capital formation, e.g. education. In
most developing countries health status is difficult to determine as the
question arises as to what measures should be used as indicators of
health status. At a general level most of the demand or production
function considerations are obtained by aggregating over the micro
factors. I However, in the case of health status micro and macro
measures may not be perfectly correlated; In most cross-country studies
life expectancy at birth or the infant mortality rate are taken as
indicators of health status. Other measures which can be used to
indicate such improvements in health status are age and diseasespecifrc
mortality or morbidity and life expectancy. However, the improvement in
health status can be observed most obviously from increases in life
expectancy which is a better measure for cross country comparison than
age and diseasespecific mortality or morbidity, which are more difficult
to compare at the international level.
Farm Loans Recovery Problem in Pakistan: Its Possible
Solution
Authors: Khan Rao Abdul Rauf
Published: August 2018

The emerging trend of focussing more and more attention on
improving the production and productivity of farming in Pakistan has
prompted bankers to evolve better schemes to improve the income
generation capacity of the farming community and help them repay the
borrowed funds in time. This can be called a step in the right
direction. The Agriculture Development Bank of Pakistan (ADBP) the
Federal Bank for Cooperatives (FBC) and the Commercial Banks are the
major formal institutions, which because being Government owned have in
fact become the agents for rural development purveying the most
important input i.e. credit. Hence, the expansion and growth of the
banking sector have become synonymous with national welfare. The main
objective of banks in lending is to improve the recycling of funds
capability borrowed from the public or raised from internal or external
sources for the benefit of society. The recovery of loans portrays a
dismal picture. Since agricultural lending expanded extensively, the
recovery percentage has received a great setback due to which as per
estimate more than half of the funds are not funnelled back. In fact,
financial distress has always been a feature of the financial scene but
most of the time it has been associated with being a sectoral problem
such as those affecting agriculture and industries.
The "Orderliness" of Economic Development (Presidential
Address)
Authors: Naqvi Syed Nawab Haider
Published: August 2018

The process of economic development-in the sense of a
sustained increase in per capita income-is typically associated with
dramatic changes in some key economic variables relating to the sectoral
composition of production, trade, and factor-use. And this seems to
suggest that it is essentially a "disorderly" affair. Some of these
changes have been observed regularly enough to qualify as the stylised
facts, or the "regularities", of economic development. These general
observations about the real world seem to support a spate of
"disorderly" hypotheses about the nature of economic development. The
critical minimum-effort hypothesis, the poles-of-development conjecture,
the unbalanced-growth strategy of development, the propositions
advocating a big-push, the great spurt, or the process of cumulative
causation, all suggest that the development process may have been
disequilibrating in the "structural sense" . Yet another dimension of
such "disorderly" hypotheses is the pioneer's vision of the effects of
growth on income distribution. Thus Lewis's "capital fundamentalism"
envisages a particularly "bloody" scenario: capital accumulation
proceeds relentlessly in his dual-economy model, where profits rise
while real wages remain constant because the supply of labour-the
Marxian "reserve army"-is (definitionally) elastic. In Lewis's model, if
not in the real world, the story of (capitalist) growth comes to an end
once the real wage starts to rise; this must happen because, again by
definition, the wage-earners consume all that they earl}. Kuznet's and
also Myrdal's inverted U-shaped pattern of inequality-partially
confirmed by cross-country investigations of the size distribution of
income-postulates a worsening of income distribution, at least in the
initial stages of economic development.
Relative Profitability of Multinational Enterprises in a Developing Host Country: The Sri Lankan Experience
Authors: Hema Wijewardena
Published: August 2018

Empirical evidence on the profitability of multinational enterprises vis-a-vis local finns in developing countries appears to be sparse and contradictory. This paper attempts to shed some light on this aspect through an analysis of the balance sheet data of a sample of manufacturing finns in Sri Lanka. The analysis does not support the generally-held view that multinational enterprises are more profitable than their local counterparts. It suggests that profitability cannot be explained by either origin (MNF/local finn) or sector, or age.
Explanation of Off-farm Work Participation in Rural Pakistan
Authors: Haroon Jamal
Published: August 2018

The role of off-farrn employment in augmenting household fann income in the developing countries is of special significance, given the land and water resource constraints and the alanning. rate of population growth. This study focuses on the rural household in Pakistan in an effort to understand the economic and social factors that affect off-farm work participation of male household members in the rural areas. The data are derived from the cross-section survey carried out by the International Food Policy Research Institute for the year 1986-87 as a panel study of rural households. The parameters of the model are estimated using the standard maximum likelihood Tobit approach. Most of the results are consistent with the findings in other developing countries. The results confirm that the level of human capital plays an important role in making decisions providing for labour in off-fann work activities. The study also highlights the fact that fann-to-market roads and village electrification are some of the development strategies vital to encourage participation in off-farm work.
Krishna Bharadwaj. Accumulation, Exchange, and Development: Essays on the Indian Economy. New Delhi: Sage Publications. 1994. 395 pages and Index. Hardbound. Indian Rs 350.00. Paperback. Indian Rs 195.00
Authors: Ziaul Haque
Published: August 2018

Before her death in 1992, Professor Krishna Bharadwaj had reached the prime of her intellectual growth so that her mature thought on classical political economy and her ideas on development paradigms had begun to coalesce into a single whole. As the title of the book under review implies, this work of the late Indian economist comprises a study of the general problems of economic growth, accumulation, exchange, distribution, and development based on the theory of surplus, including its generation, appropriation, and distribution in society. The author applies classical theory to the complex development process in the developing economies, and to the specific problems of the Indian economy in the industrial, agricultural, and commercial sectors.
Leela Gulati. In the Absence of their Men: The Impact of Male Migration on Women. New Delhi: Sage Publications. 1993. x+174 pp. Hardback. Indian Rs 200.00.
Authors: Soofia Mumfaz
Published: August 2018

Among the neighbouring countries of South and South-East Asia who responded to the demand for labour following the oil price hike in the Middle East in 1973, India had sent out an estimated 75600 workers as migrants to the Middle East by 1987. Of these, 30100 workers had migrated from Kerala alone (Appendix I on p. 147 ofthis book shows). Gulati's book sketches the profiles of ten such households. The book is a simple and direct narration of the effects on the women left behind on account of the absence of the men of their households who went to work in Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Kuwait from the mid-seventies. The analysis is based primarily on the biographies of the wives of ten migrants. The consequences of migration are assessed with reference to other family-members of the migrant as well, particularly women other than the wife (i.e., mostly the mothers and sisters).
Growrth and Distribution of Agrarian Assets in the Punjab
Authors: Moazam Mahmood
Published: August 2018

This is a micro study of the growth and distribution of the non-land agrarian assets in the Punjab between 1970 and 1984. This period of farm accumulation is interesting especially since it allows us to trace the agricultllral productivity impact of the Green Revolution (introduced in the late 1960's) on the distribution of wealth. The Green Revolution was based on a wide spread adoption of inputs, HYV seed, and fertiliser, albeit with some evidence of time lags and differentials across farm size, and it generated a high rate of acquisition of agrarian assets, especially tubewells and mechanisation. The introduction of the HYV inputs definitely enhanced profitability, income, and wealth in the farm sector, but its impact on the distribution of agrarian assets across income classes was not so definite. This study focuses on this less well-researched aspect of the distribution of wealth generated by the Green Revolution. To examine asset accumulation. we posit an analytical framework of exogenous and endogenous constraints on growth, which is useful in picking up both the common and contrasting patterns of growth and distribution across the two distinct regions of the Punjab. the canal colonies. and southern Punjab. The first exogenous constraint of an imperfect credit market is macro in nature. and is common to both regions. which strongly handicaps asset acquisition by small farmers. Further. there is evidence that, given the new technology. the ownership of assets is an important determinant of both growth and distribution. So this initial equity bias against small farmers in the first round of accumulation implies an even greater bias in the second round. The second endogenous constraint is regionally specific to the more land-concentrated southern region. which generates supervision costs for the largest operators. preventing them from expanding their operated area further through increased mechanisation. It also adds to the persistence in southern Punjab of the contractual form of sharecropping, in contrast to the proliferation of self-cultivation and use of wage-labour in the canal colonies.
Estimating Relative Technical Efficiency in Barani Agriculture:
Some Further Results
Authors: Ullah Himayat
Published: August 2018

The concept of technical efficiency of farms has sufficiently
been detailed in the literature on agricultural economic development
since Farrell (1957) and has now widely been studied by, among others,
Bardhan (1973); Kalirajan and Flinn (1983); Fare, Grosskopf and Lovell
(1985); Battese, Coelli and Colbi (1989); Kalirajan (1990); Battese and
Coelli (1992); Himayatullah, et al. (1994); and Bashir and Himayatullah
(1994). The interest in relative economic efficiency emerged from the
observation that labour intensity and yield are inversely related to
farm size. Economists interpreted this result as an indication that
either small and large farms faced different configurations of input and
output prices, or small and large farms differed with respect to
economic efficiency. Economic efficiency of a group of farms can be
conceptualised as comprising two main components; technical efficiency
and allocative efficiency. A group of farms may be considered
technically more efficient than another group of farms if it can produce
a given output with less of some or all inputs, and a group of farms may
be considered allocatively more efficient than another group of farms if
it is more successful in equating marginal revenue product with the
marginal cost of inputs. More simply, technical efficiency involves the
farm’s ability to obtain the maximum possible output from a given set of
resources, and allocative efficiency concerns its ability to maximise
profits by equating the marginal revenue product with the marginal cost
of inputs. Specifically, a group of farms that uses the best combination
of inputs achieves the maximum possible output and is superior to
another group of farms which does not do the same, given a similar
bundle of inputs.
Determinants of Expenditure on Health in Pakistan
Authors: Siddiqui Rehana , Afridi Usman , Haq Rashida
Published: August 2018

An important component of human capital formation is
improvements in the health status of the population.1 Improvements in
the health status of a nation can lead to longer life expectancy, shift
the labour supply curve outward, increase labour productivity, and
increase the productivity of investment in other forms of human capital,
particularly education. Since health and the capacity to improve health
are related to socio-economic conditions, it is important to analyse the
impact of changes in these variables on the provision of health
services. Due to the presence of externalities, market failures, and
inability of a significant proportion of the population to pay,
government intervention is required in the health sector. In this study,
we shall analyse the changes in the provision of public health resources
in Pakistan, in response to the changes in socio-economic factors. Most
empirical studies in this area have been cross-country studies. Fulop
and Reinke (1983) emphasise that socio-economic factors affect the
health status directly and indirectly. The indirect effect is through
the changes in health resources in response to the changes in
socio-economic factors. Kleiman’s (1986) cross-country analysis shows
that per capita national income, the ratio of government consumption
expenditure to private consumption expenditure, and the measure of
income inequality are important determinants of public expenditure on
health. The study also shows that public and private expenditure on
health are good if not a perfect substitute for each other.
Mean Ages at Parities: An Indirect Estimation
Authors: Afzal Mohammad , Kiani M. F. K.
Published: August 2018

This paper is the outcome of a continuous concern that some of
the basic demographic estimates provided by successive surveys in the
country do not fulfil the expectation of use at their face value. In a
previous paper, an indirect assessment of the birth rates from these
surveys was made on the basis of internal consistency of the relevant
data. It was pointed out in that paper that a rate being a ratio of the
two estimates (e.g., the number of births and the population), any
variation of emphasis on obtaining accuracy of the numerator or
denominator makes the rate unrealistic. For example, placing more
emphasis on a better coverage of births or deaths and a relatively less
or no corresponding effort on the measurement of population may lead to
biased estimates. Further, any inconsistency of such measurement between
different surveys would make their utility for assessing even a
time-trend questionable [Afzal et al. (1993)]. Whereas there is no
substitute for realistically estimated birth rates (or fertility rates),
an index based on relatively simple information which is less affected
by the variations in adjustments of births and population is the "Mean
Number of Children Ever Born per Woman".
The Demographic Determinants of "Successful" Village
Cooperatives
Authors: Mumtaz Soofia
Published: August 2018

Worsley and his colleagues (1971) have drawn attention to the
tendency in all traditional societies, to assume communal relations as
'solidary' in nature. The structure of village cooperatives is presumed
to reinforce the solidarity of those relations. Anthropological
analyses, however, have illustrated that communal relations range from
those that could be termed 'solidary' to relations that are in direct
conflict. The response of the local population to the changes introduced
within the co-operative framework is therefore likely to be
cross-culturally varied. Moreover, the demographic features of
historically common conditions of a geographical area, it is argued, are
also pertinent to the "success" that maybe expected of village
cooperatives with reference to their stated objectives. The strength and
identity of the socio-economic groups inhabiting a given geographical
region play a role in defining local response to the changes introduced
and their likely outcome.
Credit for Rural Poor in Pakistan
Authors: Qureshi Sarfraz Khan
Published: August 2018

Farmers, large and small, and the non-farm population in rural
areas all suffer from the liquidity constraint. Credit is needed to
acquire command over the use of working capital, fixed capital, and
consumption goods. The Green Revolution technologies have increased the
credit requirement for modern inputs and farm investment. A new expanded
role of rural credit institutions has emerged in the wake of the
technology revol~tion in rural areas. Two distinct approaches have been
used to provide the financial services to the rural poor. The most
widely favoured approach in the past was the use of subsidised interest
rates with a portion of credit reserved for the poor. The low interest
policy was based on the premise that it would induce farmers, large and
small, to use modern' inputs on a larger scale. One of the adverse
side-effect of this policy was the introduction of an element of
financial unsustainability in the loan portfolios of the credit
institutions. The recent view about the delivery of rural credit
consists of using market interest rates and using a mixture of
'bottom-up initiatives' at the local level, using non-government groups
and 'top-down initiatives' by the formal credit institutions in terms of
the simplification of the procedures and decentralisation of the credit
operation for credit supply to the rural poor. In this paper, an attempt
is made to evaluate the efficacy of these two approaches in the case of
Pakistan for delivering credit to the rural poor.
Risk-sharing in Rural Pakistan
Authors: Syeda Fizza Gillani
Published: August 2018

Risk-sharing is a fundamental form of economic behaviour. It can occur through formal insurance markets, informal family arrangements, community support, legal institutions (such as bankruptcy), or government tax-transfer programmes. Whatever the mechanism used to share risk, the extent of risk mitigation can greatly influence the welfare of all members of society. Understanding the degree of risk-pooling in society is important for policy-makers, since insufficient risk pooling may provide a basis for government intervention. Alternatively, if risks are being pooled adequately without the help of the government, government risk-sharing may be redundant. This study explores the implications of the risk-sharing model, namely, that households which pool risks, either through formal markets or informal personal arrangements, experience correlated changes in their consumption through time. It conducts tests of within-village, across-village, within-district, and across-district risksharing using a new Pakistani panel data set—the Pakistan Food Security Management Survey—collected by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), Washington, D. C. Unlike studies for other Less Developed Countries (LDCs), these tests find very little or almost no evidence of risk-sharing among unrelated individuals within- and across-villages in the rural sector of Pakistan.
The Household Integrated Economic Survey of Pakistan 1990-91:Internal and External Consistency
Authors: Maarten De Zeeuw
Published: August 2018

After the appearance of Morgenstern's The Accuracy of Economic Observations (1950), data quality should be a matter of abiding concern among economists. The present paper highlights the theme by subjecting the Household Integrated Economic Survey (HIES) 1990'91 to a consumer test. From among all remarkable results, a 10 percent "shortfall" of the reported share of workers in agriculture as compared to the Labour Force Survey stands out. Reservations are also made with regard to employment status of workers, income dynamics for employees and self-employed, foreign and domestic reinittances, i(lter-household transfers, improverishment, the marginal propensity to consume, per capita income, and direct tax incidence. If these issues at stake are not inexplicable, at least some elucidation is obviously required. Recommendations for improving HIES data quality emphasise checking on internal and external consistency, and the elucidation of seemingly remarkable results.
Structural Adjustment, Industrialisation, and Export
Promotion
Authors: Khan Shahrukh Rafi , Khan Shaheen Rafi
Published: August 2018

The main objective of this paper was to explore if trade
liberalisation has ushered in the large scale de-industrialisation that
is feared by some to follow in its wake and whether it has been
successful in enhancing export promotion. We relied on several different
kinds of evidence to demonstrate that de-industrialisation has not
coincided with the intensive structural adjustment period while export
growth has. However, both industrialisation and export promotion in
Pakistan have been below potential, below the mean for low income
countries and have not even kept pace with progress in this regard in
the low income country group. We were not able to establish, possibly
due to the paucity of time-series observations, that either industry or
exports generated positive externalities for or used resources more
productively than the rest of the economy.
Role of Economic Policies in Protecting the Environment: The
Experience of Pakistan
Authors: Faruqee Rashid
Published: August 2018

Economic policies that ensure efficient allocation of
resources is a necessary, but not a sufficient condition for creating
appropriate environmental incentives. Environment-specific policies are
also needed to correct market failures leading to environment problems.
Two types of policies can be used to deal with environmental
problems—command and control policies and incentive- or market-based
policies. Command and control policies involve government mandating of
environmental quality standards on emissions, technology type, or input
use. Incentive- or market-based policies use prices to try to affect
pollution and resource use. Despite the advantages of marketbased
approaches, Pakistan, like many other countries, mostly followed control
policies. But these policies have often failed to achieve results
because regulating institutions lack the financial and technical
resources to implement these policies effectively. Pakistan’s brown
environmental problems include industrial waste water pollution,
domestic waste water pollution, motor vehicle emissions, urban and
industrial air pollution, and marine and coastal zone pollution.
Economic policy failures are contributing significantly to many of these
problems. Green environmental problems affect irrigated agriculture,
rainfed agriculture, forests, and rangelands. In irrigated agriculture,
economic policies, such as subsidies on irrigation water, have provided
incentives for farmers to over use water in their production practices,
thereby exacerbating the problem of waterlogging and salinity.
Deforestation and rangeland degradation have resulted, in part, due to
lack of property rights in communal forests and lack of incentive for
local communities to participate in forest management
decisions.
Milk, Fodder, and the Green Revolution: The Case of Mixed Farming
in the Pakistan Punjab
Authors: Kurosaki Takashi
Published: August 2018

This paper analyses household decisions in producing cereal
crops, green fodder crops, and milk, for the case of mixed' farming in
the Pakistan Punjab. In the Punjab agriculture, increased household
income and increased yields of cereal crops after the Green Revolution
have resulted in the growing importance of milk in household economy.
Using a sensitivity analysis based on a household model of crop choices
under uncertainty, this paper emphasises the constraint that fodder
represents for further increases in food-grain output. Results show that
the welfare cost of production risk is significant, it is higher for
land-poor households, and its significant part is attributable to green
fodder price risk. The welfare and supply effects of more elastic fodder
demand and increased fodder yields are investigated. These innovations
in fodder technology are suggested to have a higher potential to improve
household welfare and to induce a robust supply response of cereal crops
with respect to their prices, than a crop insurance scheme to hedge
against yield risk.
Analysing Inflation: Monetary and Real Theories
Authors: Ali M. Shaukat
Published: August 2018

The paper seeks to analyse the inflationary trends observed in
Pakistan in the recent past by applying both the monetary and real
theories. The former explains inflation in terms of changes in liquidity
per unit of real output and velocity whereas the latter makes use of
real variables, especially, the structure of economy. Since the ratio
between money spending (quantity of money times velocity) and real GDP
defines general price level, monetary theory offers a natural tool for
analysing inflation. Even factors like raising utility prices by the
government or higher expected inflation add to inflation only when the
additional demand for money generated by these factors is met with an
accommodating increase in money supply (with stable velocity). During
FY86 to 96 in Pakistan, money supply grew by 15.4 percent, GDP by 5.3
percent, and velocity by –0.24 percent. This yields an estimated
inflation of 9.4 percent, very close to the actual one of 9.2 percent.
Interestingly enough, more than half of the money expansion during the
90s emanated from credit for budgetary support, rendering the latter an
active source of inflation. Under the real theory, we focused on
full-cost-pricing wherein the market value-added price is defined as a
weighted sum of various primary costs, e.g., wages, profits, and net
indirect taxes. To capture the impact of terms of trade, foreign trade
flows were added. It has been estimated that the overall inflation of
9.4 percent during FY86–95 was contributed to the extent of 5.6 points
by profits, 2.2 points by wages, 0.9 by net indirect taxes and 0.7 by
terms of trade. From policy perspective, monetary analysis has an edge
over real analysis as controlling inflation through monetary management
is relatively easier than through regulating various costs elements
which go into the formation of price.
Impact of Infrastructure and Agroclimate on the Location of Rural
Bank Branches in Pakistan: A Preliminary Assessment
Authors: Abbas Kalbe , Din Musleh-Ud , Ghani Ejaz , Qureshi Sarfraz Khan
Published: August 2018

Rural financial institutions play an important role in
development and growth of the agricultural sector. In developing
economies some rural areas are adequately served by financial
institutions, while others have little or no access to these
institutions. This uneven pattern of geographic location of rural bank
branches has been attributed largely to regional differences in
agroclimatic conditions and infrastructural endowments. We have
estimated several alternative specifications which can be helpful in
understanding the spatial distribution of commercial bank branches
across the rural areas. Our results indicate that the location of rural
bank branches is significantly influenced by infrastructural endowments
and agroclimatic environment.