bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
An Analysis of the Relationships Between Test Takers' Cognitive and Metacognitive Strategy Use and Second Language Test Performance
Authors: Purpura James Enos
Published: March 2003

Considerable research on the relationships between learner strategy use and second language acquisition has provided descriptions and generated taxonomies; however, most of these studies have lacked a firm theory of cognition and none have used powerful statistical analyses. This study used sophisticated statistical methods to investigate the relationships between test takers' reported strategy use and performance on second language tests (SLTP). Participants were 1,382 test takers from 17 centers in Spain, Turkey and the Czech Republic. They answered an 80‐item Cognitive and Metacognitive Strategy Questionnaire and took a 70‐item standardized language test. The results explained SLTP by 2 highly‐related factors, grammar and reading ability; cognitive processing (CP) by 3 factors, comprehending, storing and retrieval processes; and metacognitive processing (MP) by one general assessment factor. In addition, MP had no direct effect on SLTP but a significant, positive direct influence on CP, implying that MP exerts an executive function over CP. Then, CP had no significant effect on reading ability nor on grammar ability. However, the memory processes had a significant, negative effect, and the retrieval processes a significant, positive effect, on grammar ability; that is, the more test takers invoked memory strategies, the worse they performed; the less they used the memory strategies, the better they performed.
Foreign Language TAs' Perceptions of Training Components: Do We Know How They Like to Be Trained?
Authors: Brandl Klaus K.
Published: March 2003

This article describes a survey of foreign language teaching assistants' (TAs') perceptions of which elements of training they consider beneficial to their development as language instructors. Fifty‐six novice and experienced TAs participated in the survey; 23 in follow‐up interviews. The results of the survey, which distinguished between individual and group training methods, showed that informal discussions with peers and the supervisor, end‐of‐course student evaluations, and small‐group in‐class student interviews were rated highest. Preservice training was rated highest in the group training category. This article further discusses potential variables that support the rationales for the TAs' ratings and suggests that the TAs' self‐initiative in seeking out advice, feedback data from students, the consultant's role, her or his rank and knowledge in formal feedback sessions, focused and concrete feedback, and the mode of data collection play a major role in determining the degree of success of the training method.
Updating the Foreign Language Agenda
Authors: Lambert Richard D.
Published: March 2003

At the founding of the National Foreign Language Center in 1987, several major structural problems facing the field of foreign language (FL) instruction were identified in an editorial in The Modern Language Journal. These broad architectural issues are part of a national agenda for change, both here and abroad, and have been the focus of the NFLC’s activities since its establishment. The agenda issues identified in the article are: evaluating language competency; articulating instruction across educational levels and the different contexts in which FLs are taught; increasing the range of languages taught and studied; achieving higher levels of language skills; promoting language competency and use among adults; expanding research and maximizing its impact on FL teaching and learning; and assessing and diffusing new technologies in instructional practice, with particular attention to Internet communication, machine translation, and distance education. The article briefly indicates the nature of these challenges and notes the progress that has been made.
The CP 2 Analytical Plotter
Authors: Bucknall W. B.
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the rationale behind the design and development of the CP 2 analytical plotter and shows how the final product, in terms of both hardware and software, has been influenced by the needs of a commercial air survey company.
Digital Rectification Techniques for Architectural and Archaeological Presentation
Authors: Bryan P. G. , Corner I. , Stevens D.
Published: March 2003

Some exciting developments have been made recently, in the field of digital image rectification, which are of interest to both the photogrammetric specialist and non‐specialist. This paper outlines the technical processes involved in generating digitally rectified images, as well as raising some of the issues that are becoming apparent when applying this modern technology to archaeological and architectural presentation.
Application of Digital Photogrammetry to Complex Topography for Geomorphological Research
Authors: Lane S. N. , James T. D. , Crowell M. D.
Published: March 2003

This paper is concerned with the application of automated digital photogrammetry, using 1:3000 scale photography, to complex, natural landform surfaces, of typical interest to geomorphologists. It assesses the quality of the results obtained using a relatively cheap and readily available area based stereomatching package, in terms of precision, accuracy and external reliability. Precision is investigated with reference to the confidence that can be placed in individual matches. Accuracy is evaluated using specially collected, independent datasets obtained from an area of complex topography in Glen Affric, Scotland. Data collection was stratified to areas of different surface roughness. External reliability is judged with respect to estimates of slope, a key parameter in geomorphological investigations. The results show that, whilst the effects of grid density and vegetation correction are the most important controls upon the accuracy and the external reliability of the photogrammetric results, collection parameters associated with the stereomatching process can also exert some control, particularly in areas of complex topography. It is impossible to generalize rules for choice of optimal collection parameters without careful consideration of the surface under investigation. Given that maximum grid densities are defined by the object space pixel resolution, the paper concludes that surface quality is largely governed by traditional controls upon photogrammetric data quality (camera calibration, base:distance ratio, ground control), combined with either scanning density or digital image resolution. However, over some surfaces, careful consideration has to be given to the effect of matching parameters.
Topographic and Satellite Information for Preliminary Route Location
Authors: Albattah M. , Kharabsheh H.
Published: March 2003

Topographic information from maps and geographical information systems (GIS) has been combined with satellite data (SPOT Panchromatic, SPOT Multispectral and Landsat Thematic Mapper) to derive a product that may be valuable in preliminary route location studies. The objectives of this study were to evaluate the classification accuracy of this combined product, to compare levels of ground detail obtainable from different types of satellite imagery against aerial photography, and to present an example application on the use of the combined product.

The classification accuracy of the combined product was dependent on the type of land cover and was 83 to 100 per cent successful, with accuracy exceeding 95 per cent for most land cover types. The overall accuracy of the product was almost 95 per cent, with accuracy based on KHAT statistics of 92 per cent. Varying levels of ground detail were attainable from different types of satellite imagery. This detail may be adequate for preliminary route selection, especially in the absence of aerial photographs and GIS. The combined product presented in this study was applied successfully in selecting the optimal route for the Greater Amman ring road.
Measuring Disparity in Government Procurement: Problems with Using Census Data in Estimating Availability
Authors: Celec Stephen E. , Voich, Jr. Dan , Nosari E. Joe , Stith, Sr. Melvin T.
Published: March 2003

The Supreme Court's ruling in City of Richmond v. J.A. Croson (1989) has restricted the use of government procurement assistance programs for minorities and women without the prerequisite support of a disparity study. Recently, an increasing number of disparity studies have been rejected by the courts as “junk science” and the related programs have been ruled unconstitutional. A central issue in these cases has been the approach used to estimate the availability of minority and women firms. Data from the Economic Census are commonly used as the basis for these availability estimates. However, there are significant problems and limitations with the Census data relative to the Croson guideline that the availability of women and minority firms should reflect the number of qualified, willing, and able firms. Given the number and difficulty of the required adjustments to the Census data, it is unlikely that these data will provide availability estimates that are accurate enough to allow for valid statistical tests of an inference of discriminatory exclusion. If minimizing court challenges is a goal of the public administrator who is responsible for the program, then the recommendation here is that a primary source of availability data should be considered. Furthermore, the information system needed to support the women and minority assistance programs should be designed and installed prior to initiating the program.
Reinventing Government: The Case of National Service
Authors: Lenkowsky Leslie , Perry James L.
Published: March 2003

When Bill Clinton embraced national service as one of his administration's priorities, he took a step forward on two of his key initiatives. Not only was national service a new initiative in its own right, but Clinton also held it up as a model of his efforts to reinvent government. It would be an exemplar of government that is catalytic, competitive, decentralized, and results oriented. This case study examines the theory and reality of reinvention. The Corporation for National Service and its programs have come under fire for being more political than catalytic, being simultaneously too centralized and too decentralized, and pursuing too many unclear goals. This article seeks to identify discontinuities between the rhetoric and the reality of reinvention in this instance and draw lessons for public‐sector reform.
The Responsible Administrator Has The Ethics Edge
Authors: Williams Russell L.
Published: March 2003

Books reviewed:

Terry L. Cooper, The Responsible Administrator: An Approach to Ethics for the Administrative Role

Evan M. Berman, Jonathan P. West, Stephen J. Bonczek, eds., The Ethics Edge
Twenty‐First‐Century Challenges for Environmental Management
Authors: Caldwell Lynton K.
Published: March 2003

Books reviewed:

Richard N.L. Andrews, Managing the Environment—Managing Ourselves: A History of American Environmental Policy

Rosemary O'Leary, Robert F. Durant, Daniel J. Fiorino, and Paul Weiland, Managing for the Environment: Understanding Legal, Organizational, and Policy Changes
Fanatical Terrorism versus Disciplines of Constitutional Democracy
Authors: Newland Chet
Published: March 2003

Disciplines of constitutional democracy are based on enduring faith in ennobling higher law and shared responsibility for human dignity. They are demonstrated in commitment to the public good through reasonable practices of civic duty and public service. Fanatical terrorist networks have waged war internationally for at least two decades against such foundations of civilization that have proved to be congenial with global diversity and connectedness. That reality was finally brought home to Americans in devastating September attacks. Conventional understanding is starkly challenged now by the enemies’ differences in organization and methods from past wars. For success in this struggle, conditions that foster terrorism must be dealt with; an Antiterrorist Garrison State must differ importantly from some past experience. Today’s advanced theories and practices of Interdependent Facilitative States and their public administration are well suited to meeting terrorists’ asymmetrical threats.
Measuring Gay Populations and Antigay Hate Crime
Authors: Green Donald P. , Strolovitch Dara Z. , Wong Janelle S. , Bailey Robert W.
Published: March 2003

Objectives. The study of crime directed at gay and lesbian targets is hampered by two measurement problems: Police agencies provide unreliable data on hate crime, and tract‐level census data contain no direct information about gay or lesbian population density. This article attempts to gauge two quantities that cannot be measured directly or unambiguously: the size of the gay and lesbian populations and the number of hate crimes directed at gay and lesbian targets. Methods. Population data for New York City were gathered from market research lists and from a special tabulation of the 1990 Census. Hate crime data were obtained from the Anti‐Violence Project and the New York Police Department. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to assess the reliability of each measure and the correlation between latent population density and hate crime. Results. Each of these measures offers a reliable means by which to assess cross‐sectional differences in the population density and victimization of gay men. Census and police data prove to be inferior indicators of lesbian population density and antilesbian hate crime. For both men and women, population density is strongly correlated with the incidence of hate crime. Conclusions. Despite the fact that advocacy groups record many more antigay incidents than do the police, both sources of data are in agreement about where hate crimes occur. The strong correlation between population density and hate crime against gay men implies that Census data could be used to forecast the occurrence of hate crime in areas where no police records exist.
“I Go to Fight for Social Justice”: Children as Revolutionaries in the Mexican Revolution, 1910–1920
Authors: Leyva Yolanda Chávez
Published: March 2003

The Mexican Revolution of 1910 was the explosive culmination of decades of economic transformation under the modernization program of Porfirio Díaz. Governmental policies intended to “modernize” Mexico led to tragic results for the majority of the population, especially the rural poor. Paradoxically, along with its often indiscriminate violence and destruction, the revolution also served as a creative force, planting in the era's children, for instance, the seeds of a deeply held belief in social justice. The youngsters shared with their elders a sense that the revolution would ultimately bring about a more just and equitable society. In addition, the revolution left a legacy of symbols and myths that constructed a national archetype—the child as revolutionary and the revolutionary as child.
Universities in Transition: The Promise and the Challenge of New Technologies
Authors: Burbules Nicholas C. , Callister Thomas A.
Published: March 2003

This essay reviews two interrelated sets of changes that are having a major influence on higher education now and for the future. Our primary concern is with the changes wrought by the incorporation of new information and communication technologies into the teaching activities of colleges and universities. Today these are normally discussed under the rubric of “distance education,” but we believe this label misconceives the importance of online technologies in blurring the distinctions between on- and off-campus teaching. We consider a number of ethical and policy issues arising from these changes and the ways in which the uses of these new technologies affect and are affected by a second set of changes affecting universities, the conditions of globalization. In general, we want to question the forced options of boosterism or rejectionism, along with other unhelpful dichotomies that have characterized much of the discussion of these issues up until now.
Decent Facilities and Learning: Thirman A. Milner Elementary School and Beyond
Authors: Uline Cynthia L.
Published: March 2003

As we face America's deteriorating school buildings, we also face an opportunity to advance overall educational goals. This article considers the possibilities inherent in designing, constructing, and renovating schools when participants apply a perspective that balances science with the art of constructing and renovating schools. The author advances an expanded notion of “decent” schools, one that accounts for the internal dimension of human experience, a dimension we know to be necessary to all interaction and learning. The circumstances of one urban elementary school in Hartford, Connecticut, its renovations, additions, and history, provide a case in point. The article reviews the research that relates building design and condition to learning and suggests strategies for reinvigorating the design process. The author contends that the possibilities introduced are inherent in all school building projects, no matter the size, geography, affluence, or demographics of a district.
Critical Race Theory and Interest Convergence in the Backlash against Affirmative Action: Washington State and Initiative 200
Authors: Taylor Edward
Published: March 2003

The backlash against affirmative action is gaining political momentum as liberalism's defenses are overwhelmed. This article utilizes critical race theory (CRT) to present a counter-argument to both conservative calls for color blindness and the incrementalism of traditional liberalism. Using Washington State's Initiative 200 as a case study, it argues that CRT not only can inform the debate over affirmative action, but has the potential to reinvigorate multiculturalism's social activist roots.
The Reciprocal Influence of Teacher Learning, Teaching Practice, School Restructuring, and Student Learning Outcomes
Authors: Ancess Jacqueline
Published: March 2003

This article discusses the reciprocal and dynamic relationship of teacher learning, teaching practice, school restructuring, and student outcomes in three high performing public secondary schools for at-risk students. Student outcomes include improvement in student graduation rates, course pass rates, college admission rates, and academic course-taking rates. The article describes each school's context and the inquiry process that stimulated teacher learning; triggered changes in teaching practice, school organization, and student outcomes; expanded teacher learning; and extended improved outcomes to a wider population of students. It describes how the interaction of these variables produced practitioner knowledge that teachers used to the benefit of student outcomes. It discusses how in each of the three schools teachers’ learning was initially driven by their aspirations for specific student effects, which led them to develop and implement practices that drew on their school's culture, and their knowledge of their students, successful practice, and their content area. In each case teachers made changes in their teaching practice and in school and curricular organization. The article also identifies a set of contextual conditions that support this change process. Lastly, the article presents implications for researchers, reformers, and practitioners who aim to improve student outcomes by changing teacher practice and school organization. The article is based on findings from a five-year multiple-case study of how three high schools connect disenfranchised students to their future.
Mediating Boundaries of Race, Class, and Professorial Authority as a Critical Multiculturalist
Authors: Obidah Jennifer E.
Published: March 2003

Despite the ongoing debate about the nature, goals, and politics of multicultural education, the discipline has taken hold in the minds and hearts of educators— prekindergarten through graduate school. However, for some of us who teach multicultural education, we approach our classrooms far more confident about what we want to teach, than about how we will teach it. Moreover, an examination of the assumptions underlying a multiculturalist discourse leads to questions about pedagogy; that is, what kind of pedagogy is necessary to teach multiculturalism, and how is pedagogy informed by a reconceptualization of the discipline's underlying assumptions. This article presents one professor's reflections on the challenges of mediating the boundaries of race, class, and professorial authority in an undergraduate multicultural education course.
Community, Higher Education, and the Challenge of Multiculturalism
Authors: Alemán Ana M. Martínez
Published: March 2003

Using John Dewey's pragmatism, I seek to theorize a relevant and effective understanding of collegiate community within liberal culture. If we were to understand and enact multiculturalism on our campuses in a Deweyan way, we would introduce a method of thinking or “intelligent learning” which would make the ideal of community possible for institutions of higher learning. Characteristically Deweyan, universality and difference would alter and transform each other, serving to promote the growth of the community.
The Authoritarian Personality: A Re‐Review 46 Years Later
Authors: Smith M. Brewster
Published: March 2003

The author revisits his contemporary review of The Authoritarian Personality (TAP) in the light of subsequent developments in research and theory. In spite of warranted criticism of the F‐scale, the major substantive findings of TAP have held up well. Whether they are better understood in terms of psychoanalytic psychodynamics or Bandura's social learning theory remains controversial. The role of the four authors is briefly examined.
Prime Minister Leadership Styles in Foreign Policy Decision‐Making: A Framework for Research
Authors: Kaarbo Julie
Published: March 2003

Although the institutional contexts of prime ministers in parliamentary democracies and of U.S. presidents are very different, both types of executive leaders influence the decision‐making processes through their leadership styles. Leadership style includes how the leaders relate to those around them, how they like to receive information, and how they make up their minds. While there are numerous empirical studies and theoretical frameworks on the leadership styles of U.S. presidents, few studies of prime ministers are concerned with personality and styles of leadership. This paper reviews the literature on U.S. presidential styles and on organizational leadership in order to construct a framework for the study of prime minister leadership styles. Components of the proposed framework are illustrated with examples of British prime ministers and German chancellors. In addition, categories of dependent variables to be explained by leadership style are discussed. I argue that leadership style has the greatest impact on the decision‐making process and that although the direct effect of leadership style on foreign policy behavior is less, leadership style indirectly influences foreign policy through the decision‐making process.
Historical Analogies and the Definition of Interests: The Iranian Hostage Crisis and Ronald Reagan’s Policy Toward the Hostages in Lebanon
Authors: Hemmer Christopher
Published: March 2003

Students of political psychology have long shown an interest in exploring how analogical reasoning affects decision‐making. However, the existing literature on analogical reasoning has remained within the rationalist explanatory framework by assuming that an actor's interests can be deduced from that actor's position in a certain material structure, thus treating those interests as unaffected by the process of analogical reasoning. This assumption unduly restricts the role that analogies may play. Analogies can do more than simply allow decision‐makers to figure out what specific policies will advance their preexisting interests—they can also determine the interests themselves. To demonstrate the benefits of moving the analogical literature beyond rationalism, this article explores the Reagan administration's policy toward American hostages in Lebanon, which culminated in the Iran‐Contra scandal.
Resolving Nationalist Conflicts: Promoting Overlapping Identities and Pooling Sovereignty—The 1998 Northern Irish Peace Agreement
Authors: Williams Kristen P. , Jesse Neal G.
Published: March 2003

Nationalist and ethnic conflicts are a continuing source of tension in the post–Cold War period. The underlying factors affecting such conflicts are threat perception, ethnic security dilemmas, and lack of trust between nationalist/ethnic groups. The challenge is to find solutions to these conflicts. International institutions can establish trust and reduce the ethnic security dilemma by providing multiple forums of representation, promoting overlapping identities, and pooling sovereignty. Pooling sovereignty across a number of international representative bodies leads to increased access to governmental policymaking, with each party having a stake in government, and leads to a reduction in political tension and conflict. Thus, international parliamentary institutions may provide a solution to these conflicts. The British‐Irish Peace Agreement (Good Friday Agreement) of 1998 is examined as an illustration of this argument.
Why Tyrants Go Too Far: Malignant Narcissism and Absolute Power
Authors: Glad Betty
Published: March 2003

This article explores the puzzling behavior of tyrants who undermine themselves once in power. Therealpolitik perspective and a variety of psychological frameworks are used to try to resolve this puzzle in the cases of several ancient and three contemporary tyrants. Although all the frameworks used have explanatory power, the one that most closely fits the tyrants studied here is that of the narcissist with severe superego deficiencies. An individual with such psychological characteristics may have some advantages in rising to power, and his behavior may be an effective response to some real‐life factors, but once he has consolidated his position his reality‐testing capacities diminish. Fantasies held in check when his power is limited are apt to become his guides to action. As a consequence, his behavior becomes more erratic, he runs into difficulties in meeting his goals, and his paranoid defenses become more exaggerated. The finale of a tyrant’s career depends on the particulars of his political and social situation.
Identity Processes in Collective Action Participation: Farmers' Identity and Farmers' Protest in the Netherlands and Spain
Authors: Klandermans Bert , Sabucedo Jose Manuel , Rodriguez Mauro , De Weerd Marga
Published: March 2003

This study tested the assumption that a sense of collective identity stimulates participation in collective action. Contextual circumstances supposedly make a collective identity more salient and compel people to act as members of the group; protest participation is more likely among people with a strong collective identity. Group identification and participation in identity organizations were used as indicators of collective identity in a study of 248 farmers from Galicia (Spain) and 167 farmers from the Netherlands. The farmers were interviewed three times at intervals of 1 year. The longitudinal design also allowed a test of causality. A sense of collective identity appeared to stimulate preparedness to take part in farmers' protest. Action preparedness leads to action participation, which in turn appears to foster collective identity.
The American People in Crisis: A Content Analysis
Authors: Hart Roderick P. , Jarvis Sharon E. , Lim Elvin T.
Published: March 2003

This study examines how images of the American electorate were deployed after the 11 September 2001 terrorism incident and during the Clinton impeachment. Transcripts of congressional proceedings, news coverage, and presidential campaign addresses were analyzed to determine how the phrase the American people was used during these two crises and in unrelated presidential campaign speeches. The analysis considered the roles, actions, qualities, and circumstances ascribed to the people, as well as the time orientation and the forces aligned against the people. The results show that (1) relative to presidential campaign rhetoric, both crises resulted in greater concentration on the electorate; (2) the crises differed from one another as well, with the impeachment texts featuring a contentious electorate and the 11 September texts identifying the people’s psychological strengths and anxieties; and (3) both crises were also affected by exogenous factors—partisanship in the case of impeachment, and the passage of time for the terrorism incident.
Executive Heads and the Role of Intergovernmental Organizations: Expansionist Leadership in the United Nations and the European Union
Authors: Kille Kent J. , Scully Roger M.
Published: March 2003

Despite considerable advances in methods to examine leaders’ personal characteristics using at–a–distance assessment, few studies have applied such techniques outside of the national level. This study reveals that such approaches can provide analytical leverage for examining executive heads of intergovernmental organizations (IGOs). The personal characteristics of six United Nations Secretaries–General and four European Union Commission Presidents were measured via content analysis of their responses to questions. Separately, their behavior in office was measured via historical accounts and analyses. In general, executive heads with higher expansionist leadership style scores displayed a greater willingness to try to enhance the status of their organizations.
Cancer Risk Estimation for Mixtures of Coal Tars and Benzo(a)pyrene
Authors: Gaylor D. W. , Culp S. J. , Goldstein L. S. , Beland F. A.
Published: March 2003

Two‐year chronic bioassays were conducted by using B6C3F1 female mice fed several concentrations of two different mixtures of coal tars from manufactured gas waste sites or benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). The purpose of the study was to obtain estimates of cancer potency of coal tar mixtures, by using conventional regulatory methods, for use in manufactured gas waste site remediation. A secondary purpose was to investigate the validity of using the concentration of a single potent carcinogen, in this case benzo(a)pyrene, to estimate the relative risk for a coal tar mixture. The study has shown that BaP dominates the cancer risk when its concentration is greater than 6,300 ppm in the coal tar mixture. In this case the most sensitive tissue site is the forestomach. Using low‐dose linear extrapolation, the lifetime cancer risk for humans is estimated to be: Risk < 1.03 × 10−4 (ppm coal tar in total diet) + 240 × 10−4 (ppm BaP in total diet), based on forestomach tumors. If the BaP concentration in the coal tar mixture is less than 6,300 ppm, the more likely case, then lung tumors provide the largest estimated upper limit of risk, Risk < 2.55 × 10−4 (ppm coal tar in total diet), with no contribution of BaP to lung tumors. The upper limit of the cancer potency (slope factor) for lifetime oral exposure to benzo(a)pyrene is 1.2 × 10−3 per μg per kg body weight per day from this Good Laboratory Practice (GLP) study compared with the current value of 7.3 × 10−3 per μg per kg body weight per day listed in the U.S. EPA Integrated Risk Information System.
Beyond Perception: The Experience of Risk and Stigma in Community Contexts
Authors: Gregory Robin S , Satterfield Theresa A
Published: March 2003

Concerns about stigmatization are an important influence on the development of risk management and communication policies for a wide range of technologies and products such as those associated with hazardous waste storage, nuclear power, and genetic engineering of plants or foods. Although much attention has been placed on the adverse economic effects of stigma, we believe that the social, psychological, and cultural impacts are often at least as significant and merit greater attention from policymakers and researchers. Evidence for these impacts of stigma is found in recent studies of resource‐based communities, whose residents may be shunned by local and nonlocal publics and whose products may suffer a loss of markets, which in turn creates social and economic hardship for community residents. We examine these aspects of stigma and link descriptions of the problem and prescriptions of recommended policies to five underlying characteristics of stigma, focusing on the possible insights and contributions from trade‐off analysis and narrative approaches.
A Mental Model Proposed to Address Sustainability and Terrorism Issues
Authors: Schwing Richard
Published: March 2003

I have assembled traditional ways to think about human needs and power along with empirical data to support a mental model of human values. The hierarchy of needs from the world of psychology and the hierarchy of power from the world of diplomacy provide a structure for the model. The empirical data collected from several nations over the last three decades support the structure. Furthermore, an examination of specific trends in this data for specific values indicates that it is not impossible to achieve a sustainable world driven by sustainable values. A world that will be defined by its successful movement toward the ``triple bottom line,'' a term articulated by John Elkington, is a world in which economic prosperity, environmental protection, and social equity are aligned. To say that the model allows one to address terrorism is based on the assumption that the lack of social equity or the perception of that lack determines the likelihood of terrorism.
Risk Perception and New Age Beliefs
Authors: Sjöberg Lennart , Wåhlberg Anders af
Published: March 2003

This is a study of risk perception in relation to New Age (NA) beliefs, including traditional folk superstition and belief in paranormal phenomena, as well as use of alternative healing practices. Data were also obtained on trust dimensions and on personality and psychopathology variables, as well as religious involvement. It was found that four factors accounted for the investigated NA beliefs, which were termed higher consciousness beliefs, denial of analytic knowledge, traditional superstition, and belief in the physical reality of the soul. NA beliefs were strongly and positively related to religious involvement, and negatively to educational level. These beliefs were also positively related to maladjustment and to concerns over tampering with nature. In regression analyses, it was found that NA beliefs explained about 15% of the variance of perceived risk, and that the most powerful explanatory factors were higher consciousness beliefs and beliefs in paranormal phenomena. Traditional superstition and use of healing practices did not contribute to explaining perceived risk.
Fitting Second‐Order Finite Mixture Models to Data with Many Censored Values Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation
Authors: Burmaster David E. , Wilson Andrew M.
Published: March 2003

Finite mixture models, that is, weighted averages of parametric distributions, provide a powerful way to extend parametric families of distributions to fit data sets not adequately fit by a single parametric distribution. First‐order finite mixture models have been widely used in the physical, chemical, biological, and social sciences for over 100 years. Using maximum likelihood estimation, we demonstrate how a first‐order finite mixture model can represent the large variability in data collected by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency for the concentration of Radon 222 in drinking water supplied from ground water, even when 28% of the data fall at or below the minimum reporting level. Extending the use of maximum likelihood, we also illustrate how a second‐order finite mixture model can separate and represent both the variability and the uncertainty in the data set.
Regression Models and Risk Estimation for Mixed Discrete and Continuous Outcomes in Developmental Toxicology
Authors: Regan Meredith M. , Catalano Paul J.
Published: March 2003

Multivariate dose‐response models have recently been proposed for developmental toxicity data to simultaneously model malformation incidence (a binary outcome), and reductions in fetal weight (a continuous outcome). In this and other applications, the binary outcome often represents a dichotomization of another outcome or a composite of outcomes, which facilitates analysis. For example, in Segment II developmental toxicology studies, multiple malformation types (i.e., external, visceral, skeletal) are evaluated on each fetus; malformation status may also be ordinally measured (e.g., normal, signs of variation, full malformation). A model is proposed is for fetal weight and multiple malformation variables measured on an ordinal scale, where the correlations between the outcomes and between the offspring within a litter are taken into account. Fully specifying the joint distribution of outcomes within a litter is avoided by specifying only the distribution of the multivariate outcome for each fetus and using generalized estimating equation methodology to account for correlations due to litter clustering. The correlations between the outcomes are required to characterize joint risk to the fetus, and are therefore a focus of inference. Dose‐response models and their application to quantitative risk assessment are illustrated using data from a recent developmental toxicology experiment of ethylene oxide in mice.
Multi‐Stage Model Estimates of Lung Cancer Risk from Exposure to Diesel Exhaust, Based on a U.S. Railroad Worker Cohort
Authors: Dawson Stanley V. , Alexeeff George V.
Published: March 2003

A California Environmental Protection Agency (Cal/EPA) report concluded that a reasonable and likely explanation for the increased lung cancer rates in numerous epidemiological studies is a causal association between diesel exhaust exposure and lung cancer. A version of the present analysis, based on a retrospective study of a U.S. railroad worker cohort, provided the Cal/EPA report with some of its estimates of lung cancer risk associated with diesel exhaust. The individual data for that cohort study furnish information on age, employment, and mortality for 56,000 workers over 22 years. Related studies provide information on exposure concentrations. Other analyses of the original cohort data reported finding no relation between measures of diesel exhaust and lung cancer mortality, while a Health Effects Institute report found the data unsuitable for quantitative risk assessment. None of those three works used multistage models, which this article uses in finding a likely quantitative, positive relations between lung cancer and diesel exhaust. A seven‐stage model that has the last or next‐to‐last stage sensitive to diesel exhaust provides best estimates of increase in annual mortality rate due to each unit of concentration, for bracketing assumptions on exposure. Using relative increases of risk and multiplying by the background lung cancer mortality rates for California, the 95% upper confidence limit of the 70‐year unit risks for lung cancer is estimated to be in the range 2.1 × 10−4 (μg/m3)−1 to 5.5 × 10−4 (μg/m3)−1. These risks constitute the low end of those in the Cal/EPA report and are below those reported by previous investigators whose estimates were positive using human data.
Estimation of Error and Bias in Bayesian Monte Carlo Decision Analysis Using the Bootstrap
Authors: Linville Charles D. , Hobbs Benjamin F. , Venkatesh Boddu N.
Published: March 2003

Bayesian Monte Carlo (BMC) decision analysis adopts a sampling procedure to estimate likelihoods and distributions of outcomes, and then uses that information to calculate the expected performance of alternative strategies, the value of information, and the value of including uncertainty. These decision analysis outputs are therefore subject to sample error. The standard error of each estimate and its bias, if any, can be estimated by the bootstrap procedure. The bootstrap operates by resampling (with replacement) from the original BMC sample, and redoing the decision analysis. Repeating this procedure yields a distribution of decision analysis outputs. The bootstrap approach to estimating the effect of sample error upon BMC analysis is illustrated with a simple value‐of‐information calculation along with an analysis of a proposed control structure for Lake Erie. The examples show that the outputs of BMC decision analysis can have high levels of sample error and bias.
A Risk Management Procedure for the Washington State Ferries
Authors: Van Dorp Johan R. , Merrick Jason R. W. , Harrald John R. , Mazzuchi Thomas A. , Grabowski Martha
Published: March 2003

The state of Washington operates the largest passenger vessel ferry system in the United States. In part due to the introduction of high‐speed ferries, the state of Washington established an independent blue‐ribbon panel to assess the adequacy of requirements for passenger and crew safety aboard the Washington state ferries. On July 9, 1998, the Blue Ribbon Panel on Washington State Ferry Safety engaged a consultant team from The George Washington University and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute/Le Moyne College to assess the adequacy of passenger and crew safety in the Washington state ferry (WSF) system, to evaluate the level of risk present in the WSF system, and to develop recommendations for prioritized risk reduction measures, which, once implemented, can improve the level of safety in the WSF system. The probability of ferry collisions in the WSF system was assessed using a dynamic simulation methodology that extends the scope of available data with expert judgment. The potential consequences of collisions were modeled in order to determine the requirements for onboard and external emergency response procedures and equipment. The methodology was used to evaluate potential risk reduction measures and to make detailed risk management recommendations to the blue‐ribbon panel and the Washington State Transportation Commission.
Ecological Risk Assessment Framework for Low‐Altitude Aircraft Overflights: I. Planning the Analysis and Estimating Exposure
Authors: Efroymson Rebecca A. , Suter II Glenn W. , Rose Winifred H. , Nemeth Sarah
Published: March 2003

An ecological risk assessment framework for low‐altitude aircraft overflights was developed, with special emphasis on military applications. The problem formulation and exposure analysis phases are presented in this article; an analysis of effects and risk characterization is presented in a companion article. The intent of this article is threefold: (1) to illustrate the development of a generic framework for the ecological risk assessment of an activity, (2) to show how the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's ecological risk assessment paradigm can be applied to an activity other than the release of a chemical, and (3) to provide guidance for the assessment of ecological risks from low‐altitude aircraft overflights. The key stressor for low‐altitude aircraft overflights is usually sound, although visual and physical (collision) stressors may also be significant. Susceptible and regulated wildlife populations are the major assessment endpoint entities, although plant communities may be impacted by takeoffs and landings. The exposure analysis utilizes measurements of wildlife locations, measurements of sound levels at the wildlife locations, measurements of slant distances from aircraft to wildlife, models that extrapolate sound from the source aircraft to the ground, and bird‐strike probability models. Some of the challenges to conducting a risk assessment for aircraft overflights include prioritizing potential stressors and endpoints, choosing exposure metrics that relate to wildlife responses, obtaining good estimates of sound or distance, and estimating wildlife locations.
The Changing Character of Regulation: A Comparison of Europe and the United States
Authors: Löfstedt Ragnar E. , Vogel David
Published: March 2003

European and U.S. regulatory policies have changed considerably over the past 30 years. In Europe, since the mid‐1980s, consumer and environmental regulation has become more politically salient and regulations have by and large become stricter. On the other hand, in the United States consumer and environmental issues have become less salient and contentious, and regulations have not become (comparatively) stricter. This apparent “flip‐flop” of regulatory systems has not been analyzed in much detail to date. This perspective is an attempt to analyze some examples in which it has occurred and identifies one possible cause—namely, credibility.

Commentary Ortwin Renn, p.406

Commentary David Slater, p.410

Commentary Michael D. Rogers, p.412
Advancing Environmental Risk Education
Authors: Zint Michaela T.
Published: March 2003

This article summarizes views on environmental risk education for youth and identifies some challenges to advancing environmental risk education. It is argued that education—in particular, formal (in‐school, structured) education—can play an important role in helping to create an environmental risk‐literate society. Recommendations focus on developing a framework of environmental risk education goals and objectives, evaluating environmental risk education efforts, and learning more about how to help youth make informed environmental risk decisions and to prepare them to participate in environmental risk management. It is hoped that this article will encourage greater involvement of risk professionals in environmental risk education efforts and related research.
Human Interindividual Variability in Susceptibility to Airborne Particles
Authors: Hattis Dale , Russ Abel , Goble Robert , Banati Prerna , Chu Margaret
Published: March 2003

Part of the explanation for the persistent epidemiological findings of associations between mortality and morbidity with relatively modest ambient exposures to airborne particles may be that some people are much more susceptible to particle‐induced responses than others. This study assembled a database of quantitative observations of interindividual variability in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic parameters likely to affect particle response. The pharmacodynamic responses studied included data drawn from epidemiologic studies of doses of methacholine, flour dust, and other agents that induce acute changes in lung function. In general, the amount of interindividual variability in several of these pharmacodynamic response parameters was greater than the variability in pharmacokinetic (breathing rate, deposition, and clearance) parameters. Quantitatively the results indicated that human interindividual variability of breathing rates and major pharmacokinetic parameters—total deposition and tracheobronchial clearance—were in the region of Log(GSD) = 0.1 to 0.2 (corresponding to geometric standard deviations of 10.1 – 10.2 or 1.26 – 1.58). Deposition to the deep lung (alveolar region) appeared to be somewhat more variable: Log(GSD) of about 0.3 (GSD of about 2). Among pharmacodynamic parameters, changes in FEV1 in response to ozone and metabisulfite (an agent that is said to act primarily on neural receptors in the lung) were in the region of Log(GSD) of 0.2 to 0.4. However, similar responses to methacholine, an agent that acts on smooth muscle, seemed to have still more variability (0.4 to somewhat over 1.0, depending on the type of population studied). Similarly high values were suggested for particulate allergens. Central estimates of this kind of variability, and the close correspondence of the data to lognormal distributions, indicate that 99.9th percentile individuals are likely to respond at doses that are 150 to 450‐fold less than would be needed in median individuals. It seems plausible that acute responses with this amount of variability could form part of the mechanistic basis for epidemiological observations of enhanced mortality in relation to ambient exposures to fine particles.