Europska »migracijska kriza« i stavovi prema imigrantima i imigraciji u Hrvatskoj
Authors:   Europski institut za sociologiju, Zagreb, Čačić-Kumpes Jadranka , Kumpes Josip ,   Europski institut za sociologiju, Zagreb, Klempić Bogadi Sanja ,   Institut za istraživanje migracija, Zagreb, Podgorelec Sonja ,   Institut za istraživanje migracija, Zagreb
Published: February 2025

This paper aims to attempt to understand attitudes towards immigrants and immigration as a perception of the impact of immigrants and immigration on Croatian society and their changes. It is based on the dynamic version of group conflict theory, which suggests that short-term but intense social changes have a greater effect on shifts in attitudes towards immigrants and immigration than long-term competition over resources (Meuleman, Davidov and Billiet, 2009). Therefore, following a theoretical introduction and a selective review of previous research findings within the European context, as well as an overview of social circumstances related to migration in Croatia, the paper analyses data obtained from the European Social Survey (ESS). These data pertain to attitudes towards immigrants and immigration in Croatia and within a broader European context, before and after the 2015–2016 “migration crisis”, as well as before and after the significant increase in the number of immigrants (foreign workers) in Croatia.
Due to the sudden and significant increase in the number of immigrants, it was expected that the increased influx during the “migration crisis”, accompanied by media and political encouragement of moral panic, would lead to a shift in attitudes towards immigrants and immigration. While the “migration crisis” did result in a more negative perception of the role of immigrants in society across European countries, it did not lead to a long-term decline in support for immigration. Relatively soon, attitudes towards immigration generally returned to pre-crisis levels or even became somewhat more positive. However, this level varies across different countries and regions of Europe. Research has shown that attitudes towards immigration and immigrants tend to be more positive in countries with a long immigration tradition than in those that have not historically been immigration destinations or are only just becoming so. Additionally, attitudes are more positive in Western and especially Northern Europe compared to Southern and Eastern Europe, as well as in Western democracies compared to post-socialist countries. It is considered that these and similar findings cannot be fully explained solely by group conflict theory or contact theory. Moreover, the prominence of immigration as a social issue is increasingly linked to the rise of populism and the politicisation of migration in public discourse.
All of this suggests that attitudes towards immigration and immigrants can only be interpreted by linking contextual and individual factors. Therefore, the expressed attitudes of Croatian citizens towards immigrants and immigration are connected to the characteristics of the socio-historical context within which the analysed research was conducted. With its accession to the European Union in 2013, Croatia was expected to increase its potential to transition from a traditionally emigrant country to an immigrant one. Facilitated mobility and improved employment opportunities abroad, as seen in other Central, Eastern, and Southeastern European countries after joining the EU, have accelerated the emigration of Croatian citizens to EU countries. At the same time, the demand for foreign workers in Croatia has gradually increased. During the “migration crisis” and the intense migratory pressure on its borders, Croatia, positioned on the external side of the Schengen borders, primarily served as a transit country for most migrants, who neither wished nor intended to stay. A notable increase in the number of immigrants has occurred due to the growing demand for foreign workers, particularly after the reopening of borders following the COVID-19 pandemic.
To analyse the differences in attitudes towards immigrants and immigration in Croatia before and after the “migration crisis” within a broader European context, assess whether these attitudes are shifting with the rising number of foreign workers in Croatia, and identify key individual predictors of these attitudes, this study utilizes data from the European Social Survey, specifically its 5th (2010/2011), 9th (2018/2019), 10th (2020/2021), and 11th (2023/2024) rounds.
An analysis of attitudes towards immigrants and immigration before (ESS5- 2010/2011) and after (ESS9-2018/2019) the 2015–2016 “migration crisis” shows that, as seen in most European countries, attitudes in Croatia became more positive after the “crisis”, indicating relative stability in these views. It was found that, on average, Croatian citizens held more positive attitudes towards immigrants and immigration after the “migration crisis” compared to citizens of most post-socialist EU member states, although these attitudes were still less positive than those in most Western, and especially Northern European countries, including traditionally immigrationreceiving countries. According to the measurement of perceived immigration threat on a scale from 0 (negative) to 10 (positive), Croatian respondents exhibited a statistically significant improvement in their attitudes after the “migration crisis” (MESS5 = 4.71; MESS9 = 4.93 /t = -2.660; df = 3345.197; p = 0.008/). However, despite this improvement, their attitudes remained more negative than the European average (MESS5 = 4.70; MESS9 = 5.13).
The dynamics of expressed attitudes towards immigrants and immigration in Croatia, within the context of the “migration crisis”, mirror those observed in most other European countries, including those that faced a significant increase in the number of immigrants. However, unlike these countries, Croatia was only marginally impacted by the “crisis”, and no surge in negative attitudes towards immigrants and immigration followed. However, a shift in these attitudes, specifically, a rise in more negative views towards immigrants and immigration, occurs with the arrival of a growing number of foreign workers and their increased visibility in Croatian society. An analysis of attitudes towards immigrants and immigration in Croatia, surveyed before (ESS10-2020/2021) and after (ESS11-2023/2024) the significant increase in the number of immigrants (foreign workers), reveals a statistically significant shift towards more negative attitudes following the rise in the immigrant population, according to the measurement of perceived immigration threat (MESS10 = 5.09; MESS11 = 4.82 /t = 3.112; df = 3085.646; p = 0.002/). It is important to note that the overall shift occurred largely due to respondents perceiving immigrants as a cultural threat to a statistically significantly greater extent after the notable increase in their numbers (t = 5.436; df = 3041.246; p < 0.001), while the perception of an economic threat did not change statistically significantly. Additionally, regarding opposition to immigration based on the origin of immigrants, the analysis shows that, after the significant increase in the number of immigrants, there was a somewhat statistically significant shift towards more negative attitudes, specifically towards the immigration of people “of a different race or ethnic origin” compared to the majority of the Croatian population (t = -2.218; df = 3080; p = 0.027).
The results of this analysis confirm the assumptions of the dynamic version of group conflict theory, which posits that attitudes towards immigration and immigrants change in response to short-term, or perhaps more accurately within the Croatian context, unusual but significant shifts in the presence and visibility of immigrants in society, with their numbers being an important factor.
Following the increased influx of immigrants without Croatian citizenship, who come from various European countries, other continents, and increasingly from certain Asian countries, respondents demonstrate a statistically significant higher perception of immigrants as a cultural threat. Additionally, there is a somewhat statistically significant shift towards a more negative view of the immigration of people “of a different race and ethnic origin,” suggesting a rise in xenophobic attitudes.
Based on data from the 11th round of the ESS, regression analysis identified some key predictors of attitudes towards immigrants and immigration in Croatia. The findings concluded that respondents who are older, less educated, from rural areas, selfidentify as more religious, of lower socio-economic status, politically right-leaning and more inclined towards nationalism are more likely to express negative attitudes towards immigrants and immigration. Since political orientation is highlighted as a predictor of both the perception of immigration threat and opposition to immigration in the applied regression model, it can be said that this variable contributes most to explaining attitudes towards immigrants and immigration. Such a perception of the impact of immigration on society, along with the view of immigration as a societal problem and the negative perception of immigrants, suggests a rise in rightwing populism and the politicisation of migration within public discourse.
These findings, along with the results of previous studies, highlight a certain structural xenophobia within Croatian society and indicate the need for a carefully designed immigration policy. In addition to laying the foundation for the integration of immigrants into Croatian society, such a policy could, as research shows, encourage more positive attitudes towards immigrants. Its implementation is not only a challenge related to the necessary condition of securing essential workers but also to retaining them in the country. This, in turn, presents the challenge of immigrant integration, which must be understood as a two-way process between immigrants and the native population.