Development of an information system for numerical modelling of the propagation of volcanic ash from Kamchatka and Kuril volcanoes
Authors: Мальковский С.И. , Сорокин А.А. , Гирина О.А. 
Published: October 2021

Пепловые облака и шлейфы, возникающие при эксплозивных извержениях вулканов Камчатки и Курил, представляют большую опасность для авиации. Поэтому актуальными задачами являются прогнозирование и анализ их перемещения. Для их решения в составе АИС Сигнал создана подсистема моделирования, позволяющая прогнозировать направление, скорость и высоту перемещения пепловых облаков и шлейфов в атмосфере. В то же время для более точной оценки представляемой ими опасности требуется определять не только их качественные, но и количественные характеристики. В статье рассмотрены результаты работ по развитию возможностей АИС Сигнал. Дано описание разработанных инструментов, позволяющих прогнозировать концентрацию пепла на эшелонах полетов самолетов, а также мощность и массу пепла, выпавшего на поверхность земли. Приводятся результаты выполненных численных экспериментов, показавших хорошую согласованность со спутниковыми данными.

Purpose. Ash clouds and plumes forming during explosive eruptions of the volcanoes of Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands pose a great danger to aviation flights. In this regard, the urgent and important task is to predict and analyze their movement. To solve this task, a modelling subsystem based on the PUFF model was created as part of the automated information system (AIS) Signal. It allows to predict the direction, speed and height of the propagation of ash clouds and plumes in the atmosphere. At the same time, for more accurate assessment of the danger of ash clouds and plumes, it is necessary to determine not only their qualitative, but also quantitative characteristics, for example, the concentration of ash at the flight levels of aircrafts, the amount of ash deposited on the surface, etc. To solve this problem, research was done to expand the capabilities of the AIS Signal by integrating the Eulerian FALL3D model into it. The present article presents the results of this work. Methodology. Implementation of system and user interfaces for automating the processes of collecting and preparing auxiliary data (reference information about volcanoes, meteorological data, etc.), performing numerical calculations in the FALL3D model and visualizing the results obtained, was carried out on the basis of similar interfaces created earlier in AIS Signal for the PUFF model. This significantly accelerate the process of integration the FALL3D model into the existing AIS modelling subsystem. Implementation of the operating modes of the subsystem and evaluating the efficiency of its functioning were carried out as part of the study of ash clouds and plumes propagation that formed during explosive events on the volcanoes of Kamchatka. Findings. As part of the integration of the FALL3D model into the modelling subsystem, informational interaction of its software components with the services of AIS Signal was organized. Algorithms for the formation of collections of meteorological data necessary for the functioning of the model were proposed and implemented. User interfaces have been created that allow specialists to calculate the characteristics of ash clouds with the ability to set detailed initial parameters for an explosive event and model settings. Originality. The integration of the FALL3D model into the AIS Signal significantly expands its ability to predict propagation of ash clouds and plumes formed during explosive eruptions of the volcanoes of Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands. In addition to the instruments for determining the direction, speed, and height of the spread of volcanic ash, tools have been developed to determine the ash concentration at the flight levels of aircrafts, as well as the thickness and mass of the ashfall. Numerical experiments have showed a good agreement between the obtained modelling results and the satellite data.