bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Nationalizing Oil in the 1970s
Authors: Dean Goodermote , Mancke Richard B.
Published: May 2011

National oil companies emerged during the 1970s as an important force within both oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. By 1980 they were producing and marketing well over half the crude oil available for sale on world markets. These oil companies prospered within oil-exporting countries as events increasingly confirmed that the principal source of economic power in the oil business was sovereign control over oil reserves rather than private control over technical, managerial, and capital resources. During the 1970s, many oil-exporting countries sought to exploit their new-found market strength and exercise greater control over their oil industry either by building up existing government-owned oil companies or by seizing the opportunity to create new ones.
Risk-Bearing and the Choice of Contract Forms for Oil Exploration and Development
Authors: Blitzer Charles R. , Lessard Donald R. , Paddock James L.
Published: May 2011

The structure of taxes and fiscal contracts between host countries and foreign companies has major implications for the success of oil development projects. This is because of several key characteristics of such projects: large investment outlays, long lead times to project completion, and long periods of project output and payout. These characteristics usually are coupled with an incomplete sharing of information and technology, and significant differences in the ability of the various parties to bear the risks involved. These characteristics often lead to unstable contracts and, in many cases, to the failure to develop projects that are economically attractive in aggregate terms but unattractive to one or both parties because of uncertainties over sharing project risks and returns.
Energy Conservation in the United Kingdom:A Major Industrial Opportunity
Authors: Carter Jane
Published: May 2011

We are standing at a watershed in world development-the transition from an era of cheap and abundant energy to one where energy becomes scarcer and dearer. This paper discusses from the U.K. standpoint the opportunity that enhanced energy conservation presents to industry both to modernize and rethink its energy structures. Also,and of equal importance, is the response to the challenge of meeting the new investment demands that energy conservation presents.
Energy Prices and Capital Obsolescence: Evidence from the Oil Embargo Period
Authors: Gibbons Joel C.
Published: May 2011

The average service life of fixed assets in U.S. manufacturing industries increased gradually from 1962 to 1969. Thereafter, it fell sharply up to the mid-1970s. The most rapid change occurred in the three years following the Arab oil embargo. There is reason to believe that these events were causally related: the rapid escalation of petroleum prices caused the decline in useful lives of plant and machinery. The reasoning behind this statement and an analysis of the data on service lives of fixed assets are the topic of this paper.
International Energy Workshop: A Summary of the 1983 Poll Responses
Authors: Manne Alan S. , Schrattenkolzer Leo
Published: May 2011

Energy forecasting is a hazardous occupation. Virtually any pro- jection is doomed to be incorrect. Opinions can swing from one extreme to another during a six-month period. Our paper is not intended to provide still another projection, but rather to try to explain why different individuals and organizations arrive at divergent views on the long-term energy outlook-and therefore differ on policy decisions.
Competing Energy Uses for Wood Wastes in British Columbia
Authors: Margolick Michael , Hansson Ardo H. , Helliwell John F.
Published: May 2011

One of the many significant impacts of silicon-chip technology is the ability to do detailed engineering-based microeconomic simulations of industrial behavior under variations in input and output prices, tax schemes, and technological choice. If the number of plants in an industry is manageable and each plant can be parameterized by a manageable number of coefficients, each plant's response to such variations can be computed individually. Consistent aggregation produces industry-wide results, together with impacts on output and factor demands. Furthermore, cost-benefit analysis of possible new plants or technologies is made far more flexible, as the implications of possible future price or tax environments can be easily computed.
Investment in Geothermal Direct Heat Applications
Authors: Hederrnan William F. , Gordon Laura Cohen
Published: May 2011

As a result of substantial increases in oil- and gas-supply prices (and despite recent softening of these prices), selected uses of geothermal energy have become competitive with conventional fuels. Geothermal energy includes resources with a wide range of temperatures. These resources are suitable for numerous applications from low-temperature heating to the production of high-temperature steam for use in generating electricity.
Effectiveness of Building Energy Performance Standards to Curtail Household Energy Demand: A Theoretical Analysis
Authors: Mathur Vijay K.
Published: May 2011

The Congress of the United States enacted the Energy Conservation and Production Act in 1976. It was amended in 1977. Title III of this act is designed to implement policies to curtail energy demand associated with new buildings; Title IV is aimed at establishing policies to encourage energy conservation in existing buildings. The main purposes of both Titles are to curtail energy consumption on the part of households as well as commercial buildings. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effectiveness of various policies, which may be followed by the government under this Act, for curtailing the energy use by the households. Although no comprehensive energy policy to meet this goal has yet been formulated, the purpose of the Act gives a clear indication about the type of policy that could eventually emerge. My intention is not only to examine the effectiveness of the policy or policies emerging from the above Titles, but also to compare them with alternate, albeit traditional, policies of pricing, taxes, and subsidies aimed to reduce energy demand.
U.S. Gasoline Demand: What Next?
Authors: Baltagi Badi H. , Griffin James M.
Published: May 2011

Predicting the demand for motor gasoline over the last ten years has proven a most frustrating experience. Up until 1973, industry analysts felt considerable assurance in applying historical growth rates that averaged approximately 5 percent per year. Who in 1973 would have predicted that gasoline consumption in 1981 would fall below 1973 levels? For example, in 1973, Shell Oil Company predicted annual growth of 4.9 percent per year. Their forecasted value for the year 1981 exceeded the actual level by 42.7 percent (Shell, 1973). Unfortunately, errors of this magnitude are not as benign as predicting the point spread in a pro football game. To the contrary, both private and public policy decisions depend on the accuracy of such forecasts. Because of the importance of gasoline as the major refinery product, refinery expansion plans and retail marketing strategies are conditioned on such forecasts. Similarly, public policy decisions regarding auto efficiency standards, auto pollution controls, and oil import policy depend on gasoline demand forecasts. Current forecasts tend to be extremely pessimistic with respect to gasoline demand in the 1980s. Wharton Econometric Forecasting Associates predicts a 14.7 percent decline in motor-vehicle fuel demand over the decade of the 1980s; Exxon's Energy Outlook predicts a 15.6 percent decline over the decade. Is such pessimism warranted? Are there key assumptions, which if changed, could produce a substantially different picture?
Fuel Efficiency Incentives for Cars Oil Import Vulnerability Reduction
Authors: Craig Paul P.
Published: May 2011

U.S. oil imports have dropped from a peak of 8.9 mbd (million barrels per day) in 1977 (6.2 mbd from OPEC countries) to 5 mbd in 1982. Simultaneously, U. S. demand for oil has dropped from 18.4 mbd to 16 mbd, and our dependency on imports has dropped from 43 percent to 37 percent. Unfortunately, the costs of energy imports continued to climb, from $8 billion in 1973 to $44 billion in 1977 to $81 billion in 1981 (Department of Energy [DOE], 1982).
The Price of Oil and Conflict in OPEC
Authors: Reza All M.
Published: May 2011

The price-setting behavior of the oil-exporting nations is influenced by the various elasticities of demand for and supply of oil, and the long-run optimal price trajectory is also influenced by the rate of interest and reserves (see, for example, Pindyck, 1978, and Reza, 1981). Since it is generally agreed that the long-term price elasticity exceeds the short-term elasticity (in absolute value), measuring the latter can give a clearer picture of the former. The short-term price elasticity of demand for OPEC oil is also of interest because short-term financial constraints have apparently led at least some members of OPEC to weigh the short-run outcome of their pricing decisions more heavily. The issue addressed here is the magnitude of the short-run price elasticity of the demand for oil supplied by the OPEC core (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar) and of OPEC as a group.
An Energy Demand and Generalized Fuel Choice Model for the Primary Metals Industry
Authors: Duffus LuAnn McCleman , Chem Wen S.
Published: May 2011

The primary metals industry is defined by the Bureau of the Census as the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 33. In terms of both absolute amount of energy use and energy intensiveness, SIC-33 is large relative to other industries.' This paper estimates essential energy demand relationships for this important sector. Although there are basically four energy sources used in the primary metals industry (fuel oil, natural gas, coal, and electricity), the response to changes in own price and cross price is dampened as a consequence of technology, plant vintage, and historical growth in the industry. Forecasts of future energy demand hinge on these price elasticities and on assumptions about future energy prices.
Deregulating the Generation of Electricity Through the Creation of Spot Markets for Bulk Power
Authors: Bohn Roger E. , Golub Bennett W. , Tabors Richard D. , Schweppe Fred C.
Published: May 2011

Many observers are dissatisfied with the current condition of privately owned electric utilities in the United States. Numerous pro- posals have been made for change, including suggestions to deregulate all or part of the industry.' Those who favor deregulation argue that electric power systems, and especially electric generation, may no longer be natural monopolies. Furthermore, under the present regulatory regime, many utilities are refraining from investing, which is not in the best interests of their customers.2 Others, however, worry that quality and reliability of 1. See Golub (1982, Chapter 2) for a review of the literature on deregulating electricutilities. 2. A major electric utility's internal planning documents discussed the problem as follows. The ability to raise new capital is finite, and is especially limited given the current financial condition, the economy, and the regulatory climate. Thus, although the recommended investments ... will lead to a correct economic decision ... they may not be desirable due to other constraints [on the company] ... The document goes on to report that the company is not investing in coal projects, although such projects' long-term cost is one-third less than current anticipated generating costs.
Fair Value Versus Original Cost Rate Base Valuation During Inflation
Authors: Prinieaux Walter J. , Bubnys Edward L. , Rasckei Robert H.
Published: May 2011

Valuation of public utility property for rate-making purposes has been controversial since the beginning of public regulation. Despite much academic research and practical experience, there is no consensus of academicians or practitioners concerning the appropriate value of physical property used for providing service to customers. In public utility rate making, the value of this physical property, net of depreciation, is called the rate base. An important question is how well regulatory processes adjust the rate base for price level changes during periods of inflation. Statutes of the individual states determine how public utility property will be valued for rate-making purposes. Three basic methods are employed. Original cost jurisdictions set the rate base at the value of the property when it was first installed in a public utility application; the fair value method attempts to adjust the base to a level that more correctly reflects its current value; and the reproduction cost approach tries to establish a value that would permit reproduction of the property. Because the reproduction cost approach is not now being used by any state, this study focuses on the original cost and fair value methods.
Cogeneration in the People's Republic of China
Authors: Yu Qu
Published: May 2011

Cogeneration refers to the combined generation of heat and electric power. A common application is district heating. Cogeneration's ad- vantage stems from savings in investment and operating expenditures, and frequently also from greater reliability. It is geographically more restricted than large electricity networks since heat losses limit its distance from the generating station. Its optimal applications are therefore in load-intensive regions.
The Economics of Utility Residential Energy Conservation Programs: A Pacific Northwest Example
Authors: Eric Hirst , Richard Goeltz
Published: May 2011

The bottom line for any utility conservation program is its overall worth: whether program costs are justified by the value of the electricity savings. That is, are these programs worthwhile investments to utility customers that participate in the programs, customers that do not participate, the utility system, and society as a whole? How sensitive are estimates of program worth to the input parameters (program-induced energy savings, discount rates, future average and marginal electricity prices)? This paper discusses our assessment of program benefits and costs for the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) Residential Weatherization Pilot Program. Unlike other assessments, the present work is based on a detailed empirical evaluation of the program. We collected enough data from both program participants and nonparticipants to analyze the actual energy savings that could be attributed to the BPA program. We also obtained information on actual program costs. This information was used to compute the Net Present Worth (NPW) of the program from the perspectives of program participants, the BPA power system, and the Pacific Northwest region as a whole.
A Note on Measuring Household Welfare Effects of Time-of-Use (TOU) Pricing
Authors: Chi-Keung Woo
Published: May 2011

Several recent studies address the issue of household welfare effects caused by the implementation of time-of-use (TOU) pricing of electricity (for example, see Aigner and Lillard, 1982; Aigner and Learner, 1982; Parks, 1983; and Caves et al., 1983). In these studies, the historical average price is used to assess the household welfare change. Implicit in their approach is the assumption that the original electricity rate structure is a flat one. In fact, however, the common rate structure is multitier, frequently an inverted block. While the literature on demand for electricity includes extensive discussions of whether the average price or the marginal price is the correct price signal to a residential customer (e.g., Taylor, 1975; Nordin, 1976; Terza and Welch, 1982; and Billings, 1982), little attention has been given to evaluating welfare change resulting from TOU pricing.
Appropriate Financing for Petroleum Development in Developing Countries
Authors: Agmon Tamir , Lessard Donald R. , Paddock James L.
Published: May 2011

The availability of appropriate financing is likely to be a dominant factor determining the scope and pace of energy investment by developing countries in the 1980s. Reliance on self-finance will severely limit development for most countries, but traditional external finance-credit from private banks or multilateral agencies such as the World Bank-will probably play a smaller role than it did in the 1970s. External financing is less likely to be readily available now; at the same time, borrowers have become more aware of its limitations. Because of the time lags and uncertainties involved in most energy-related investments, the nature and volume of financing are likely to have a significant impact on the character and rate of investment.1 In fact, for enterprises or governments that are constrained 1. While the relevance of finance to energy policy is clear, the research conducted to date has only scratched the surface. In one of the earliest studies of links between energy and finance, Agmon et al. (1979) examined the financial behavior of key OPEC members and considered the likely effect of changes in financial markets on their capacity and production decisions. Ben-Shahar (1976) and Moron (1978) evaluated the "revenue needs" of OPEC countries and related them to oil production scenarios. Dailami (1978, 1979a, 1979b) constructed econometric macrofinancial models of several oil-exporting countries; he then analyzed the impact of oil revenues on the countries' economy and the attendant influence of policy variables.
The Social Cost of Imported Oil
Authors: Elena Folkerts-Landau
Published: May 2011

Structural adjustments in the economy and an increase in uncertainty about future oil prices followed the two oil price shocks of the 1970s and suggested that continued dependence on imported oil was costly. It was argued that private decisions to consume imported oil did not appropriately take into account the country's vulnerability to oil exporters. Accordingly, a literature developed around the idea that the market price of imported oil does not reflect the full social cost.
Maximum Economic Recovery of Federal Coal
Authors: Watson William D. , Richard Bemknopf
Published: May 2011

The federal coal leasing program recently established by the De- partment of the Interior (DOI) (Federal Register, July 19, 1979) includes a requirement that operators mining federal coal achieve "maximum economic recovery" (MER) of coal from federal leases. The MER requirement, the focus of this paper, has its legislative origins in the Federal Coal Leasing Amendments Act of 1976 which directs that "the Secretary (of Interior) shall evaluate and compare the effects of recovering coal by deep mining, by surface mining, and by any other method to determine which method or sequence of methods achieves the maximum economic recovery (emphasis added) of the coal within the proposed leasing tract ... no mining operating plan shall be approved which is not found to achieve the maximum economic recovery of the coal within the tract."
Conditional Demand Analysis for Estimating Residential End-Use Load Profiles
Authors: Aigner Dennis J. , Sorooshian, Cyrus , Kermn Pamela
Published: May 2011

This paper reports some preliminary results from an ongoing study that uses regression methods to break down total household load into its constituent parts, each associated with a particular electricity-using end use or appliance. The data base used for this purpose consists of 15-minute integrated demand readings on a random sample of statistical control group customers from the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power TOD (time of day)-pricing experiment for the months of August 1978 (132 customers), 1979 (108 customers), and 1980 (80 customers). Twenty-four regression equations are fitted, each one aimed at explaining variation in the time-averaged load (averaged over days of the month) over customers as a function of temperature, house size, and binary indicator variables that indicate the presence or absence of each of the end uses of interest. This sort of method for extracting the individual contributions of end uses to total household load has become known as conditional demand analysis (Parti and Parti, 1981). The success of this method for isolating end-use loads statistically, without direct metering of the appliance, depends crucially on whether the ownership patterns of appliances are well mixed. For example, if (as in our sample) everyone owns at least one refrigerator, it will be impossible to isolate refrigerator load. Similarly,
The Importance of Technology and Fuel Choice in the Analysis of Utility-Sponsored Conservation Strategies for Residential Water Heating
Authors: Hartman Raymonds.
Published: May 2011

State-of-the-art residential energy demand models explicitly address consumer choices concerning fuels and fuel-using equipment (Arthur D. Little, Inc., 1981; Cambridge Systematics, Inc., 1981; Hartman, 1979, 1982a, b; Hartman and Wallace, 1982; Hausman, 1979; Hirst and Carney, 1978). However, these residential models have focused primarily on the measurement of conditional fuel demand and the analysis of fuel choice. One of their weaknesses is the incomplete treatment of technology choice.
Real Oil Prices from 1980 to 1982
Authors: Hillard G . Huntington
Published: May 2011

In the early 1980s, soft world oil markets were accompanied by two important and unforeseen world economic developments: stagnant economic growth and an appreciating dollar. The virtual standstill in economic growth from 1980 to 1982 was well off the 3 percent-plus growth path many analysts had anticipated. This experience, coupled with large shifts in oil inventory holdings by consumers (and perhaps increased consumer responses to oil prices), has led to a steady accumulation of unused productive capacity in the world oil market.
A Note on Petroleum Industry Exploration Efficiency
Authors: Attanasi E. D.
Published: May 2011

The concern over natural resource adequacy has led to the development of new theoretical models designed to predict behavior of firms exploring for and exploiting nonrenewable natural resources. However, advances in the theory of the mining firm have generally outpaced our ability to describe the exploration and discovery process empirically. An important topic is the industry's technical exploration efficiency-that is, how much exploration effort is needed to identify the fields with lowest unit production costs, so that extraction can proceed from the lowest to higher-cost resources.
Energy Demand in Jordan: A Case Study of Energy-Economy Linkages
Authors: Blitzer Charles R.
Published: May 2011

Higher world oil prices in the past decade have caused serious economic disruptions in most developing countries, which as a group are highly dependent on imported oil in relation to both the sizes of their economies and their total imports. I Increased oil bills have frequently led to lower aggregate growth rates, more severe balance-of-payments and debt problems, disruptions in energy-using sectors, and domestic inflation. Whether or not world oil prices resume their upward spiral, the oil-importing developing countries will continue to face serious macro-economic adjustment problems related in one way or another to energy.
Canadian Natural Gas Exports to the United States: A Monopolistic Intertemporal Analysis
Authors: Daniel Terrence E. , Goldberg Henry M. , Weyant John P.
Published: May 2011

The appropriate level and pricing of energy exports to the United States have been actively debated aspects of Canadian public policy for many years. In particular, natural gas export levels and prices have been subject to the ebb and flow of public opinion over the past two decades as Canada has gone through cycles of apparent excess and short supply. Canada perennially faces the difficult task of trading off the large potential revenues that can be derived from using its natural gas resources for current gas exports against the value of conserving them for future domestic use. Such an evaluation depends critically on factors that are uncertain and preferences that are intertemporal. It must also take into account that domestic prices in Canada are not determined in a competitive market.
A Comparison of Multivariate Logit and Translog Models for Energy and Nonenergy Input Cost Share Analysis
Authors: Lutton Thomas J. , LeBlanc Michael R.
Published: May 2011

With the advent of the translogarithmic (translog) cost function has come greater interest in estimating systems of input share equations (Christensen and Greene, 1976; Berndt and Wood, 1975). A distinguishing feature of the translog cost function is that optimal input shares are linear in parameters. The linearity arises from the second-order approximation and facilitates estimation of the share system. Linearity, however may result in negative fitted shares if error terms are assumed to be additive and normally distributed. Woodland (1979) demonstrated that maximum likelihood estimators with an underlying Dirichlet distribution constrain fitted shares to be inside the zero-one interval for the sample. However, it is possible to obtain shares outside the zero-one interval when the model is used for forecasting. Moreover, there is no theoretical reason why input shares should be monotonic in input prices. If a third-order Taylor series expansion is assumed, the monotonicity restriction can be relaxed, but such an assumption sacrifices the principle of parametric parsimony (Fuss et al., 1978).
Nigeria's Internal Petroleum Problems: Perspectives and Choices
Authors: Iwayerni Akin
Published: May 2011

As a major oil producer and member of OPEC, Nigeria benefited greatly from the sharp increases in world oil prices during the 1970s. It was especially hard hit by the weakening of oil markets during the past four years, when its oil production had to be cut back sharply and its prices reduced. The impact of these developments, including the replacement of the civilian government by a military regime in December 1983, has been discussed elsewhere. I Less well known abroad is the fact that during this entire period, Nigeria suffered sporadic but severe internal energy supply problems, including shortages of petroleum products and irregular availability of electricity. If past policies are continued, Nigeria's energy problems are likely to become severe enough to jeopardize its position as an oil exporter.
A Note on Rowen and Weyant, "Reducing the Economic Impacts of Oil Supply Interruptions: An International Perspective"
Authors: Saunders Harry D.
Published: May 2011

Henry Rowen and John Weyant (1982) commit the classic error of trying to answer an important policy question with tools that do not fit the job. Nor does their care in attaching explicit caveats to their conclusions overcome the fact that the limitations of their approach are serious. The question of oil supply disruptions and their potential economic impact is indeed important, and it remains so despite slack oil markets. Policymakers may yet be faced with situations that require them to decide quickly on the advisability of emergency tariffs and other such measures; and they will need reasonable assurances that the caveats analysts attach to policy recommendations do not overwhelm the recommendations themselves. Just such a danger is inherent in the inappropriate application of models and the application of inappropriate models.
Interpreting the International Energy Workshop Survey Results—Uncertainty and the Need for Consistent Modeling
Authors: Yohe Gary W.
Published: May 2011

Manne and Schrattenholzer's (1984) summary report of the poll responses of the 1983 International Energy Workshop (IEW) published in this Journal certainly captures the flavor of the Laxenburg meetings. Opinion about the future trends in energy consumption, prices, gross domestic product, and so on, at world, regional, and national levels was widely divergent even for the near term. In fact, it was noted with some amusement (and some dismay) that it seemed impossible to agree about what had already happened in 1980. Manne and Schrattenholzer accurately advertise the spreads they report as just what they are- differences of opinion. Nevertheless, even the statistically trained reader may be tempted to interpret these spreads as reflections of the uncertainty with which we view the world's energy future. One point of this Note is to provide independent emphasis that this uncertainty interpretation is, unless we are extremely lucky, entirely inappropriate. The second purpose is to register several other concerns about the lack of economic consistency in much of the modeling with which respondents to the JEW prepared their reports. Inconsistency, it will be argued, can undermine not only the usefulness of surveys like the one conducted by the IEW, but also the ability of any appropriate procedure to investigate the subjective uncertainty that blurs our best vision into the future.
A Note on Optimal System Planning
Authors: Banks Ferdinand E.
Published: May 2011

There are two relatively harmless slips in the interesting and important paper on optimal system planning by Michael Einhorn (1983). Both are associated with the intermediate plant.
Prospects for a Tighter World Oil MarketProspects for a Tighter World Oil Market
Authors: Erickson Edward. W.
Published: May 2011

Once again, the world oil market has failed to behave according to expectation. This time, the predictions of sharp price drops did not materialize-nor did previous forecasts of continuing escalation. This ongoing divergence between expectations and reality is becoming standard-as is the remarkable resiliency in the position and behavior of Saudi Arabia.
Coal Transportation System Modeling: The Case of Taiwan
Authors: Tzeng Gwo-Hskiung
Published: May 2011

The world energy situation has been greatly influenced by the dramatic increase in world oil prices during the 1970s. To adjust to these increases, many countries have shifted to coal as a substitute for oil and have accelerated their research and development of renewable energy sources. Until nonconventional sources become widely available and economical, coal (along with nuclear power) will play a key role in the world's energy supply. Transportation and delivery, rather than production, pose the most difficult problems in meeting the greatly increased demand for coal.
Scale Economies and Reliability in the Electric Power Industry
Authors: Burness H. S. , Cummings R. G. , Loose Verne W.
Published: May 2011

Studies concerning scale economies in the electric power industry have focused on a wide range of variables relevant to possible ways of increasing the nation's electricity generating capacity. In terms of scale economies per se, results from economic studies have supported current trends toward the construction of increasingly large generating units (Abdulkarim and Lucas 1977; Lomas 1952; and Ling 1964). Economies of scale for generating units and generating plants are attributed to such factors as nonproportionalities between plant capacity and site costs, lesser leakages and power losses obtained in larger generating units, operating and maintenance costs that increase less than proportionally with unit size, scale economies in coal-handling facilities, and economies in transmission (see particularly Lomas 1952; Ling 1964; Cicchetti, Gillen, and Smolansky 1977)) Ramifications of scale economies have been expanded to include such things as technological change (Barzel 1974, Dhrymes and Kurz 1964), interfuel substitutions (Atkinson and Halvorsen 1976) and regulatory aspects (Averch and Johnson 1962; Joskow 1974).
Prospects for the World Oil Market
Authors: Singer S. Fred
Published: May 2011

This essay recapitulates a recent review article on world oil pricing. It also summarizes my own thinking and writing about oil problems over the last decade. In brief, I maintain that the first price jump (of 1973-1974), from about $3 to $12 per barrel, represents the "correct" adjustment from the point of view of the "core" producing countries (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arabs Emirates), whose objective it should be to maximize profits over time. (I agree with Erickson and other analysts that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE are the swing producers that set the price.)
An Unstable World Oil Market
Authors: Adelman M. A.
Published: May 2011

There is a permanent surplus because huge low-cost reserves are available for development. The cartel keeps them undeveloped to maintain the price. Their power is great, but they are a "clumsy cartel" and sometimes overreact to produce a shortage. Hence the future is cloudy and threatening, like the recent past.
Electricity Growth in the Future
Authors: Peck Stephen C. , Weyant John P.
Published: May 2011

Electricity demand in the United States declined in 1974 after over twenty years of sustained growth. By 1976, the growth rate was back up to 5 percent, but since then it has eroded steadily, with demand in 1982 slightly less than in 1981. This paper provides a simple way to understand these trends in electricity demand and to project future developments.
Nuclear Construction Lead Times: Analysis of Past Trends and Outlook for the Future
Authors: Radlauer Marcy A. , Bauman David S. , Chapel Stephen W.
Published: May 2011

Cost, duration, and other uncertainties of nuclear construction have recently been in the forefront of the news. Tales of mismanagement, inconsistent quality assurance, and utility financial woes have prompted many to ask why it takes so long and costs so much to build a nuclear power plant, and what the outlook is for plants currently under construction.
OCS Leasing Policy: Its Effects on the Structure of the Petroleum Industry
Authors: Kosmo Mark
Published: May 2011

The disposition of offshore lands is one of the decade's most im- portant and controversial natural resource policy issues. Several disputes focus on the economic effects of federal Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) leasing policy. This paper addresses one of these disputes-how will OCS leasing policy affect the structure of the petroleum industry? This paper presents and summarizes an econometric model that evaluates the competitive implications of alternative OCS leasing policies. Specifically, it seeks to explain the differential bidding success of the major, minor, and independent oil companies.1 The following determinants of OCS access were evaluated.
Historical Causes of Postwar Oil Shocks and Recessions
Authors: Hamilton James D.
Published: May 2011

Turbulent petroleum markets and poor economic performance have been making headlines for the last decade. Three major oil shocks (1973-1974, 1979, and 1980-1981) have each been followed by major recessions. While the magnitude and violence of recent oil price changes are unique in postwar experience, the phenomenon of political instability producing disruptions in petroleum supply is not. Hamilton (1983a) observed that all but one of the recessions in the United States since World War II were preceded-typically by about nine months-by a dramatic increase in the price of crude petroleum (see Figure 1).
Energy in Transition: A View from 1960
Authors: Landsberg Hans H.
Published: May 2011

I am delighted to have the privilege to welcome you to this, our sixth annual North American Conference, here in San Francisco today. By some curious coincidence we have elected to meet on the very day, November 6th, when in the United States you are making the most important world leadership decision of the decade. Today, the rest of the world will be watching to see whether the U.S. electorates will endorse, inter alia, the deregulation of oil and gas and the underlying reliance on market forces to produce acceptable energy solutions for national security. Energy security, then, and the role of government is the theme I have chosen today, as I believe it still lies very much at the heart of the current energy debate. Can our energy systems survive and prosper? To what extent are volatile markets or irresponsible governments likely to mess them up? In this I conclude that, while on resource and production cost grounds, the Arabian Gulf still presents a neglected opportunity and Western Europe a neglected risk, the greatest danger lies in the United States' imposing its highly market-oriented energy logic on the rest of the world.
International Energy Policy: The Conflict of Investment Needs and Market Signals
Authors: Tempest Paul
Published: May 2011

Twenty-one years ago, Resources for the Future (RFF), then about ten years old, released a heavy tome of a little over a thousand pages, half text and half statistical appendix, called Resources in America's Future. Together with my two coauthors, Leonard L. Fischman and Joseph L. Fisher, RFF's president at the time, I had put considerable effort into the project. So had fifteen staff members and consultants and eight research assistants. To the best of my knowledge, none of them ever revisited the scene after 1963, and if they did, they didn't tell the world. We hold no reunions, observe no anniversaries. Still I have never quite freed myself of a degree of curiosity, best phrased as "how did we come out?" My own copy of the book bears the scars of that curiosity. It is full of penciled-in figures, put there in different years, without much orderliness. Once in a while, a current event would cause me to do some quick figuring, some comparison shopping. But it has all been quite unsystematic.
Estimating Industrial Energy Demand with Firm-Level Data: The Case of Indonesia
Authors: Pitt Mark M.
Published: May 2011

A number of recent studies have analyzed the role of energy in the structure of production. Most have used either a single time series for a country's manufacturing sector or time series data pooled by country or manufacturing subsector. The absence of similar data sets for developing countries has precluded the same type of analysis of their production structures. This is unfortunate since the impact of higher energy prices on these countries has been at least as severe as on the industrial countries. Furthermore, since it is likely that their structure of production is significantly different, the results of the existing econometric literature may not be applicable in understanding the role of energy prices in their economies.
Dimensioning Reserve Margins of Electrical Energy in Sweden
Authors: Andersson Roland , Taylor Lewis
Published: May 2011

Assessing the impact of electricity shortages is a key problem in determining the optimal reliability of a nation's electrical system. The size of an electrical system's reserve margin will depend to a great extent on how the shortage value is determined. Telson (1975) used macroeconomic data to estimate the upper and lower bounds of the cost for unsupplied electricity. He found the present 1-day-in-10-years loss-of-load probability criterion to be uneconomically excessive and proposed that the criterion be reduced at least to the 5-days-in-10-years level.
Oil Production Policy and Economic Development in Mexico
Authors: Razavi Hossein
Published: May 2011

The economics literature of the oil market is primarily concerned with the behavior of OPEC member countries, viewing the non-OPEC oil exporters as insignificant. Recently, however, oil exports by non-OPEC countries have expanded substantially, increasing the role these countries play in the oil market. Among these countries, Mexico is of special interest because it is the largest non-OPEC oil exporter, with huge petroleum resources; at the same time, it has an enormous requirement for foreign exchange.
Realized Savings from Residential Conservation Activity
Authors: Sebold Frederick D. , Fox Eric W.
Published: May 2011

A variety of public and private incentives are currently used to encourage the adoption of conservation measures and practices. One economic justification for these programs is that the marginal cost of conserving energy through these incentives is lower than the corresponding incremental cost of providing energy through conventional means. Naturally, the marginal cost of conserving energy is critically dependent on the actual, or realized, energy savings associated with the adoption of specific measures and practices. Our contention is that the standard approach to estimating these savings is inadequate.
An Application of the Expenditure Function in Electricity Pricing: Optimal Residential Time-of-Use Rate Option
Authors: Woo Chi-Keung
Published: May 2011

Caves et al. (1983) recently reported that mandatory time-of-use (TOU) pricing for residential customers served by four Illinois electric utilities fails to pass the cost-benefit test. Gains in economic efficiency are outweighed by the relatively high TOU meter costs. An obvious alternative is to offer a TOU rate option for which customer participation is voluntary (see, for example, Woo et al. [1983, Section D] and Malko and Faruqui [1980, pp. 161-62]). The problem of optimal pricing under self-selection has been analyzed by Faulhaber and Panzar (1977), Panzar and Sibley (1978), and Mirman and Sibley (1980). Following these studies, this paper derives the optimal electricity prices when a customer can choose between paying the TOU rates and the full incremental costs of a TOU meter and remaining on a flat rate schedule. My approach departs from the earlier studies in using the expenditure function to characterize the optimization problem as described by Diamond and McFadden (1974).
Weather Normalization and Natural Gas Regulation
Authors: Bower Richard S. , Bower Nancy L.
Published: May 2011

The residential demand for natural gas is the subject of two recent articles in this journal.' Each used pooled time-series/cross-section data to estimate price and income elasticities as well as other relationships that determine the quantity of natural gas consumed by individual households or groups of households. Not surprisingly, among relationships other than price or income, the most important links consumption to weather conditions .2 Regulating natural gas distribution companies requires that this dependence of consumption on weather conditions be recognized and reflected in ratemaking. If it is not (or if it is recognized incorrectly) the regulator will approve prices and revenues that make expected return on utility investment either greater or smaller than allowed return.
The Effect of a Fuel Adjustment Clause on a Regulated Firm's Selection of Inputs
Authors: Scott Frank A.
Published: May 2011

When input prices are changing rapidly, the delays inherent in rate-of-return regulation can result in rate decisions that are outdated before they can be implemented. Many regulatory commissions have adopted fuel adjustment clauses to remedy this problem. Fuel clauses adjust output price for changes in fuel costs so that the utility's profit remains relatively unaffected. Fuel adjustment clauses are now used in almost all the 50 states and the District of Columbia; a survey by the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (NARUC) (1978, p. 6) revealed that only 7 states did not permit fuel clauses.
A Welfare Approach to Energy Pricing: A Case Study for India
Authors: Kadekodi Gopal K.
Published: May 2011

Because oil crises or other supply constraints distort energy production and demand management, energy pricing remains an important policy instrument of economic management. Moreover, for many developing countries, the problem of energy management includes the pricing of energy products within a framework of planning, as well as questions of supply. In many countries energy production and distribution are now publicly managed. Such public operations have to account for both efficiency in production and equity in distribution. The pricing of energy inputs thus emerges as a key planning parameter.
Energy Consumption in Hungary: An Ex Post Analysis
Authors: Kiraly Julia , Lovei Laszlo
Published: May 2011

This paper analyzes the causes of the recent stagnation of Hungary's gross energy consumption. Applying a dynamic method, we estimate the effect of three factors: reduced growth, structural adjustment, and energy conservation. After an explanation of the methodology and a description of the estimating procedures, we discuss our results and offer some conclusions. Individual equations are contained in the appendix.
Again, Federal Tax Credits Are Found Effective: A Reply
Authors: Carpenter Edwin H. , Durham Cathy
Published: May 2011

One of the greatest compliments that can be paid to a research effort is an attempt to refute its findings that instead replicates those findings. That is the present case. Commenting on Carpenter and Chester (1984), Peterson (1985) states, "The authors conclude that conservation credits have done little to stimulate conservation expenditures, but that the renewable energy credit has increased the demand for solar space and water heating systems. Unfortunately, problems with the data used by Carpenter and Chester cast doubt on their findings." Peterson then concludes, from his analysis of the "better" data set, "The percentages from the table suggest that solar purchasers are much more affected by the availability of tax credits than are conservation investors."
Solar Versus Conservation Tax Credits
Authors: Petersen H. Craig
Published: May 2011

In the late 1970s concern about energy shortages motivated Congress to establish federal income tax credits to individuals for (1) household energy conservation expenditures and (2) purchases of renewable energy systems. Under terms of the Energy Tax Act of 1978, the tax credit for conservation expenditures is 15 percent of the amount invested, with a maximum credit of $300. The credit for renewable energy systems (such as solar space or water heaters) was initially set at 30 percent of the first $2000 and 20 percent of the next $8000. In 1980, the Windfall Profit Tax Act increased the tax credit for renewable energy systems to 40 percent of the first $10,000 in qualifying expenditures-a maximum credit of $4000.
A Decision Analysis Approach to Energy System Expansion Planning
Authors: Peerenboom James P. , Foell Wesley K.
Published: May 2011

Capacity expansion decisions are critically important to both public and private-sector energy suppliers as well as regional and national energy planning agencies. Simplistically stated, planning for the expansion of an energy supply system involves determining when and where new energy production facilities of various types and sizes should be deployed to meet projected demands. As with most energy-related decision problems, several factors complicate capacity expansion planning. These factors include the involvement of multiple decisionmakers and interest groups, uncertainties about technology costs and demand projections, varying degrees of risk associated with alternative energy technologies, the need to consider costs and effects over long time horizons, and the difficulty of quantifying key impacts and concerns.
Biogas Development in India and the PRC
Authors: Kharbanda V. P. , Qureshi M. A.
Published: May 2011

The years since the 1973 spurt in oil prices have witnessed a growing interest in renewable energy sources. Increased attention has been paid to the development of technologies using new and renewable sources of energy, such as solar, wind, tidal, biomass, and hydropower. These sources are all the more important in developing countries with scarce conventional sources of energy like coal and oil. The new and renewable energy resource systems offer attractive prospects because they are pollution-free, unlimited, and often cheap. They can also help preserve ecosystems and retard degradation of the environment. Moreover, renewable energy resources can be developed extraordinarily rapidly, as shown by the experience with wood fuel in United States, small hydropower and biogas in the PRC, and energy crops in Brazil. In some countries technical advances have brought wind machines, solar cells, and biogas close to commercialization for heating and electricity generation. Thus far, over 3 million solar water heaters have been sold in Japan and over 5 million wood stoves in the United States.