bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Long-Term Trends in Migratory Behavior in A Developing Country: The Case of Mexico
Authors: Greenwood Michael J. , Ladman Jerry R. , Siegel Barry S.
Published: March 2007

Comparable lifetime migration relationships are estimated for Mexico for 1950, 1960, and 1970. Moreover, migration flows from each state to every other state are separately examined for each year. A number of significant changes over time are evident in the responsiveness of Mexican internal migrants to various socioeconomic stimuli, and appreciable differences are also evident across space. Moreover, a threshold is observed such that up to about 340 miles higher origin earnings deter migration, but beyond this distance higher earnings actually encourage migration.
Methods for Comparing the Mortality Experience of Heterogeneous Populations
Authors: Manton Kenneth G. , Stallard Eric , Vaupel James W.
Published: March 2007

Methods are presented which produce Maximum Likelihood Estimates (MLE) of the degree of heterogeneity in individual mortality risks under a variety of assumptions about the age trajectory of those mortality risks. With these estimates of the degree of population heterogeneity it is possible to adjust comparisons of mortality risks across populations for the effects of population heterogeneity, differential mortality selection, and different age trajectories of the force of mortality. These methods are demonstrated by applying a variety of standard assumptions about the age trajectory of the force of mortality to the analysis of a broad range of cohort mortality data for the U.S. and Swedish populations. The estimates of the degree of heterogeneity, produced under all of the selected force of mortality models, consistently indicated a considerable degree of heterogeneity in mortality risks.
The Ergodic Theorems of Demography: a Simple Proof
Authors: Arthur W. Brian
Published: March 2007

Standard proofs of the ergodic theorems of demography rely on theorems borrowed from positive matrix theory, tauberian theory, and the theory of time-inhomogeneous Markov matrices. These proofs are efficient and expedient, but they give little direct insight into the mechanism that causes ergodicity. This paper proposes a simple and unified proof of the two ergodic theorems. It is shown that the birth dynamics can be decomposed into a smoothing process that progressively levels out past fluctuations in the birth sequence and a reshaping process that accounts for current period-to-period changes in vital rates. The smoothing process, which causes the birth sequence to lose information on its past shape, is shown to be the ergodic mechanism behind both theorems.
Cohort Analysis of Recent Trends in Labor Force Participation
Authors: Clogg Clifford C.
Published: March 2007

The age-period-cohort accounting framework is used to describe labor force participation patterns for the sex-color groups over the interval 1969–1979, using data from the March Current Population Survey. A model with a special type of age-period interaction, in addition to main effects of the three indexing variables, is presented as a means of capturing the transitory period “shocks” which differentially influence participation odds for young and old age groups. Findings show that younger cohorts of nonblack men, nonblack women, and black women have greater “intrinsic” tendencies to participate than older cohorts, while younger cohorts of black men have lesser “intrinsic” tendencies to participate than older cohorts. The results are used to decompose across-time change into a part due to cohort effects and a part due to period effects.
Religious Differentials in Reproduction: the Effects of Sectarian Education
Authors: Johnson Nan E.
Published: March 2007

College-educated Catholic women in the 1976 National Survey of Family Growth had higher actual and expected fertility than did college educated Protestants. Moreover, Catholic colleges or universities had a pronatalist effect on alumnae. Thus, a significant part of the higher Catholic than Protestant cumulative fertility among college-educated women arose from the greater propensity of such Catholics to attend sectarian schools and colleges. The implications are explored.
A Model for Inferring the Voluntary and involuntary causes of residential segregation
Authors: Lieberson Stanley , Carter Donna K.
Published: March 2007

It is clear that both voluntary and involuntary forces normally contribute to the residential segregation existing between groups. For the most part, the contribution of each dimension has not been determined. Rather, researchers operate as if either one or the other force is operating. In the United States, for example, black-white segregation is assumed to be imposed by whites on blacks, as if the latter were themselves totally indifferent to the racial composition in their areas of residence. On the other hand, it is assumed that segregation between white ethnic groups is at present purely a voluntary matter. In an earlier period, it was assumed that their segregation was both voluntary (reflecting desires to be among compatriots) and involuntary (reflecting the imposition of restrictions on residential movement by other groups as well as economic forces). But it has not been possible for investigators to determine the relative importance of each factor. Using asymmetrical segregation indexes, a rudimentary procedure is proposed for determining the relative importance of voluntary and involuntary forces operating to generate a given level of segregation. Data based on Black, Anglo, and Spanish residential patterns are then considered in terms of the proposed model.
Temporal trends in U. S. multiple cause of death mortality data: 1968 to 1977
Authors: Manton Kenneth G. , Stallard Eric
Published: March 2007

An analysis is made of the mortality trends over the period 1968 to 1977 indicated by two types of cause-specific mortality data. The first type of data is “underlying cause” of death data—the data heretofore used in national vital statistics reports on cause-specific mortality. The second type of data is “multiple cause” data which contain a listing of all medical conditions recorded on the death certificate. A comparison of trends in the two types of data yields useful insights on mortality declines over the study period for two reasons. First, these declines were largely due to a reduction in the mortality rates of circulatory diseases. Second, the multiple cause data contain considerably more information than the underlying cause data on the role of circulatory diseases, and many other chronic diseases, in causing death. This additional information is especially useful in examining mortality patterns among the elderly, where the prevalence at death of chronic degenerative diseases is high.
A Kin-Based measure of r and an evaluation of its effectiveness
Authors: McDaniel C. K. , Hammel E. A.
Published: March 2007

A relation is shown between r and the ratio (S) of those living who are youngest in their sibsets to those who are oldest. This extends Goldman’s work on the relation between r and the ratio (Z) of younger to older ever born sisters. Solved for r, these relations provide kin-based measures of r. Tested against micro simulated population data, the S-based measure, though working from fewer observations per population, performs as well or better than any Z-based measure. Since the data needed to compute S make considerably fewer demands on respondents’ knowledge, the S-based measure appears preferable in actual application.
Measuring and explaining the change in life expectancies
Authors: Arriaga Eduardo E.
Published: March 2007

A set of new indices for interpreting change in life expectancies, as well as a technique for explaining change in life expectancies by change in mortality at each age group are presented in the paper. The indices, as well as the new technique for explaining the differences in life expectancies, have been tested and examples using United States life tables are presented. The technique for explaining life expectancy differentials can be used for analyzing change in mortality or mortality differentials by sex, ethnicity, region, or any other subpopulations. The technique can be applied to life expectancies at birth or temporary life expectancies between any desirable ages.
Socioeconomic ramifications of changing cohort size: an analysis of U.S. postwar suicide rates by age and sex
Authors: Ahlburg Dennis A. , Schapiro Morton Owen
Published: March 2007

This paper presents a relative cohort size model of suicide. The model states that as relative cohort size (the ratio of younger to older workers) rises, income and income aspirations diverge for the young. One possible extreme reaction to this disequilibrium is suicide. The model explains the variation in age- and sex-specific suicide rates for the United States over the period 1948 to 1976. It identifies the direct effect of changes in cohort size on suicide rates as well as the indirect effect operating through other demographic variables. The model predicts the suicide rates for males above 45 years of age to rise and those for all other groups to decline. For most groups this is a reversal of recent movements in their suicide rates.
Long-term economic consequences for women of delayed childbearing and reduced family size
Authors: Hofferth Sandra L.
Published: March 2007

Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study explored the association among delayed childbearing, completed family size and several measures of the economic well-being of women age 60 and older in 1976. By retirement age women who bore their first child at age 30 or older are significantly better off economically than either average-age childbearers or the childless. Economic well-being also appears to be related to family size among late childbearers. At retirement age the delayed childbearer with only one or two children appears better off than all other women. Thus, late childbearing and small family size appear associated with the highest standard of living for these women. This study also relates the experience of this early cohort of women to that of more recent birth cohorts.
Local labor markets, children and labor force participation of wives
Authors: Stolzenberg Ross M. , Waite Linda J.
Published: March 2007

Most research on married women’s labor force participation relates characteristics of individual women to their probability of labor force participation. Some studies relate characteristics of geographic areas to average labor force participation rates in those areas, although these aggregate level analyses are usually gross tests of ideas about individuallevel processes. Here we take a quintessentially sociological perspective and seek to understand how characteristics of geographic areas structure the relationship between properties of individual women and their probabilities oflabor force participation. Our analysis has two steps. In step one, we fit individual-level probit models of married women’s probability of labor force participation. A separate model is fitted in each of 409 areas using 1970 Census data, and the relationship between individual characteristics and labor force participation is found to vary substantially across areas. In step two, we attempt to explain areal variation in the effects of women’s children on their labor force participation. We hypothesize that the effect of children on their mothers’ labor force participation is a function ofthe cost and availability of childcare, and of the “convenience” of jobs for working mothers in the places where the mothers live. Measures of childcare cost, childcare availability and job convenience are developed. Weighted least squares analyses of probit coefficients from the first stage are, in general, very consistent with our findings, and suggest that the approach taken in this paper is likely to be a fruitful one for future studies.
A dynamic analysis of women’s employment exits
Authors: Felmlee Diane H.
Published: March 2007

This research examines women’s rates of leaving a job to become nonemployed (unemployed or out of the labor force) using a stochastic, continuous-time model. The data consist of employment histories of white women constructed from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women (1968–1973). The results demonstrate the importance of examining the underlying processes in women’s employment. Several differences are found between the determinants of employment exits and what might be expected from the cross-sectional and panel literature on female labor force participation. The findings also provide evidence of the interdependence of fertility and employment, with young children increasing rates of employment exits and with high wages on ajob decreasing rates ofleaving a job because of a pregnancy. Finally, involuntary employment terminations are examined, and their transition rates are found to decrease with job wages and job tenure and to increase when a woman has children.
The negligible influence of premarital cohabitation on marital fertility in current danish cohorts, 1975
Authors: Hoem Jan M. , Selmer Randi
Published: March 2007

This paper studies the influence of premarital cohabitation on marital fertility by applying life table methods to data for cohorts of Danish women born in 1926–1955, collected in retrospective interviews made in 1975. For each five-year cohort, the data have been analyzed by duration of marriage or by duration since previous birth, for women who had no reported births before marriage. Our main empirical results are: (a) that women who married at age 15–19 had higher rates of marital first and second births than those married at ages 20–24, and (b) that premarital cohabitation had very little influence on births of these two first orders in our data.
The Use of the Multiplicity Survey to Identify Migrants
Authors: Goldstein Sidney , Goldstein Alice
Published: March 2007

New approaches must be developed and tested to meet the needs for current data on population movement. One such approach is the survey with multiplicity (social networks). It allows respondents to report events (in this case, migration) that occurred to specified relatives living elsewhere. In order to test the value of the approach on a limited, exploratory basis, a two-stage research design was employed. A sample of persons resident in Cranston; Rhode Island who had changed address in the three years preceding the survey, was first identified and information was gathered in Round I on their mobility and on their relatives living in the State. In tum, these relatives (Round II) were asked about the mobility of their parents, siblings, and children. (The responses from Round II should have included the migrants in Round I.) Evaluation of the accuracy of Round II responses in comparison to those obtained in Round I was undertaken in terms of kin relationships, recency of move, and type of move. The results indicate that respondents had a low awareness of their relatives’ movements, that moves of females were more likely to be reported than those of males, that recent moves were more frequently cited, and that moves between communities were more likely to be reported than intracity mobility.
Estimating the Approximate Size of The Illegal Alien Population in the United States by the Comparative Trend Analysis of Age-Specific Death Rates
Authors: Robinson J. Gregory
Published: March 2007

This paper presents the results of an attempt to determine, through the use of demographic analysis, the approximate magnitude of the resident illegal alien population in the United States. The method described is the comparative analysis of trends in age-specific death rates in the United States and selected States, 1950 to 1975. The procedure depends on two assumptions: (a) that few or no illegal aliens are included in decennial census counts or current population estimates; and (b) that the reported statistics on deaths include deaths to all or nearly all illegal aliens. If the illegal alien population has increased by several million since 1970, then death rates in geographic areas where illegal aliens are most concentrated should show substantial excesses over the rates for the remainder of the country. A roughly similar downward trend in the death rates of all age groups since 1970 in all areas of the United States is apparent and hence does not support the view that many millions of illegal residents (perhaps over 6 million) are living here. However, the finding of a persistent deviation in the death rate trend for 10 selected States since 1960 for whites males, ages 20 to 44, and for no other group, suggests that the deaths of illegal aliens are being recorded in our vital statistics system. A range of estimates of the illegal alien population based on this analysis is presented and compared with the results of other studies.
Regression-like Analysis of Birth Interval Sequences
Authors: Braun Henry I.
Published: March 2007

Employing a family of generalized linear models for the gamma distribution, the structure of birth interval data derived from three historical populations is examined. The relative importance of such factors as current age, parity of the mother, and duration of marriage in determining the length of succeeding intervals is investigated. The results suggest that the three data sets have a common, rather simple structure and various applications of such empirical models are considered.
Migration Patterns During Italian Urbanization, 1865-1921
Authors: Hogan Dennis P. , Kertzer David I.
Published: March 2007

This study examines patterns of male migration in central Italy during its transformation from an agrarian to an urban-industrial society. The Italian population registers provide data on the extent and type of emigration among more than 3,500 men (ages 10 and over) who immigrated to the commune of Casalecchio di Reno, bordering the city of Bologna, from 1865 to 1915. Demographic and social differentials in overall rates of emigration and their relation to places of origin and destination are measured. The implications of these results for an understanding of population mobility are discussed.
Spatial Variation In Migration Processes And Development: A Costa Rican Example Of Conventional Modeling Augmented By The Expansion Method
Authors: Brown Lawrence A. , Jones John Paul
Published: March 2007

The ways in which migration and development have been linked in previous research in Third World settings are reviewed. Intercantonal migration in Costa Rica is analyzed, first in terms of a conventional model and then in terms of a paradigm of migration that focuses on place-to-place variations in development milieu. The results show there is spatial variation in the role of most variables and that these variations follow a reasonably consistent pattern with regard to development conditions. A series of maps graphically illustrates the importance of a spatial frame of reference.
Household structure and labor force participation of black, hispanic, and white mothers
Authors: Tienda Marta , Glass Jennifer
Published: March 2007

This paper investigates whether the inclusion of nonnuclear adults in a household facilitates the labor force participation of single and married mothers. Results based on a sample of extended and nuclear households show that the extension mechanism facilitates the labor market entry of married mothers, but not of single mothers. Interactions between extended structure, ethnicity, and poverty, however, suggest a complex relationship. For extended family households, the gender and employment characteristics of nonnuclear adults affected the labor force participation of single mothers, but the number of nonnuclear members was inversely associated with the market activity of married mothers. Policy implications are discussed in the final section.
The effect of changing demographic composition on recent trends in underemployment
Authors: Clogg Clifford C. , Shockey James W.
Published: March 2007

The effect of changing age-sex composition on trends in unemployment and underemployment from 1969 to 1980 is estimated. This effect is positive as anticipated, but negligible in both absolute and relative terms. For example, no more than .35 percent of the increase in unemployment between 1969 and 1980 can be attributed to compositional factors. The secular rise in unemployment and underemployment from the late 1960s into the 1980s simply cannot be attributed in any substantial way to the changing demographic composition of the labor force.
On the dynamics of populations with two age groups
Authors: Kim Young J.
Published: March 2007

By restricting the number of age groups to two and by introducing continued fractions, the dynamics of populations with deterministically changing vital rates are completely specified at all times. Explicit expressions for the sequence of the product of population projection matrices are given. From these, relative age distribution and reproductive values to any desired accuracy are obtained as functions of the vital rates. Thus, the results given in this paper are stronger than any existing weak ergodic theorems.
Seasonal migration and seasonal variation in fecundability: Effects on birth rates and birth intervals
Authors: Menken Jane
Published: March 2007

Seasonal patterns in conception rates have been documented in several recent studies. In this paper, a mathematical model of the reproductive process is developed through which the impact of such variation in conception rates is assessed. It is found that the effect on fertility can be quite substantial, but that the birth rate when seasonal variation is occurring is approximated well by the birth rate calculated when conception rates are constant at their mean. These results indicate that further documentation of seasonality in conception rates and exploration of the causes of these patterns and their change is an important area for demographic research.
Long-Term Consequences for Children of Teenage Parents
Authors: Card Josefine J.
Published: March 2007

Data from Project TALENT were analyzed to investigate whether any long-term consequences exist for children of teenage parents. TALENT is a longitudinal national survey of 375,000 individuals who were in grades 9-12 in 1960. TALENT participants born when their mother and/or father was a teenager were compared with their classmates born when both parents were older on a variety of educational, occupational, and social dimensions. Many differences were found, owing primarily to the different social and economic background characteristics of the two groups. Even with the background factors controlled, the children of teenage parents, in comparison to their classmates: (a) showed decrements in terms of academic achievement; (b) were more likely to live in one-parent or stepparent homes; and (c)showed a slight tendency to repeat the early marriage, early parenthood, and higher fertility cycle of their parent(s).
Proportional Hazards Life Table Models: An Illustrative Analysis of Socio-Demographic Influences on Marriage Dissolution in the United States
Authors: Menken Jane , Trussell James , Stempel Debra , Babakol Ozer
Published: March 2007

The proportional hazards life table is a recently developed approach to the analysis of survival data when mortality risks vary among individuals. It assumes that at a given age (or duration since the start of a life) the force of mortality is a constant (specific to that age) multiplied by a proportionality factor which is determined by the characteristics of the individual and does not change unless these covariates do. In this paper, the method is reviewed for the case where the covariates are fixed at the start of the lifetime and illustrated by an application to marital dissolution in the United States.
The Harmonic Mean as the Basis of a Realistic Two-Sex Marriage Model
Authors: Schoen Robert
Published: March 2007

The “two-sex problem” is one of attempting to preserve the essential character of male and female rates of marriage (or birth), since the expression of those rates is influenced both by the age-sex composition of the population and the underlying age-sex schedule of preferences. The present paper focuses on marriage and advances a theoretically based, realistic, and conceptually simple solution. In the continuous case, where exact male and female ages are used, equation (11) provides a mathematical relationship which equates the sum of the male and female marriage propensities of the observed population with that of the model. When discrete age intervals are used, the two-sex consistency condition is given by equation (14) which equates observed and model population rates calculated using the harmonic means of the number of persons in the relevant male and female age groups. The harmonic mean consistency condition is shown to be fully sensitive to the competitive nature of the “marriage market.” When compared with alternative approaches to the two-sex problem in the context of data for Sweden, 1961–64, the simple harmonic mean method yields results fairly similar to those of the other methods. None of the two-sex methods do particularly well at predicting the actual distribution of marriages, however. The likely reason is that the underlying marriage preferences changed, a circumstance which emphasizes the importance of carefully conceptualizing how observed behavior can be decomposed into the effects produced by age-sex composition and those produced by the underlying preferences.
Methods for the Analysis of Mortality Risks Across Heterogeneous Small Populations: Examination of Space-Time Gradients in Cancer Mortality in North Carolina Counties 1970–75
Authors: Manton Kenneth G. , Stallard Eric
Published: March 2007

A method of analyzing mortality rates in heterogeneous populations is presented. This method, appropriate for the investigation of mortality rates in small geographic areas (e.g., counties) where the forces of mobility operate to selectively “package” persons, is applied to the determination of whether a spatial west-east gradient in cancer mortality rates existed in North Carolina over the period 1970 to 1975. A significant gradient (as well as a significant temporal trend) is determined to exist in the data, though only for particular race, age and sex-specific demographic groups. Several alternate hypotheses are presented to explain the existence of the spatial gradient in these particular demographic groups.
Effects of the Number and Spacing of Children on Marital and Parental Satisfaction
Authors: Mooney Marini Margaret
Published: March 2007

Analyzing data from a fifteen-year follow-up study of high school students originally surveyed in 1957–58 and resurveyed in 1973–74, this paper examines the effects of the number and spacing of children on marital and parental satisfaction. The results suggest that the number of children in the family has no direct effect on marital satisfaction but has a direct negative effect on parental satisfaction. Childspacing, as measured by the length of the average birth interval, is found to have no significant effect on either marital or parental satisfaction. Premarital pregnancy has a negative effect on both the marital and parental satisfaction of women.
Asset Accumulation and Family Size
Authors: Smith James P. , Ward Michael P.
Published: March 2007

Utilizing panel data on families, estimates are made of the effects of children on asset accumulation, asset composition, consumption, and family income. Young children are found to depress savings for young families but to increase savings for marriages of duration greater than five years. The principal channel through which children act to reduce savings is the decline in female earnings associated with the child-induced withdrawal of wives from the labor force. Family consumption actually decreases with the birth of a child, but this reduction is insufficient, for young families, to offset the fall in income. For families in which the wife does not work the estimates suggest that savings may actually increase with children.
Patterns of American Jewish Fertility
Authors: DellaPergola Sergio
Published: March 2007

The 1971 National Jewish Population Survey provides cross-sectional data on achieved fertility, detailed birth histories, and other information on family formation for a countrywide representative sample of 5,303 ever-married women. Cohort analysis shows that—although at lower levels—Jewish fertility has followed the general trends of American population.
Labor Force Status Life Tables for the United States, 1972
Authors: Schoen Robert , Woodrow Karen
Published: March 2007

As an ordinary life table follows a closed group from birth to the death of its last member, a labor force status life table follows a closed group through life and through the statuses “in the labor force” and “not in the labor force.” Using data from the January 1972 and January 1973 Current Population Surveys, two types of labor force status life tables were calculated for the United States, 1972. One type was a conventional working life table (for males) which started with an ordinary life table and partitioned the life table population into labor force statuses using age-specific proportions in the labor force. The other type was an increment-decrement table, prepared for both males and females, which was calculated so as to be consistent with the rates of labor force accession and separation implied by the data.

Increment-decrement labor force status life tables are generally preferable to conventional working life tables. They reflect the implications of a clearly specified set of behavioral rates, provide detailed measures of the flows between labor force statuses, do not introduce seriously biasing approximations into the calculation of summary measures of labor force experience, and can be applied to female data as easily as male data. In practice, incrementdecrement labor force status life tables can be calculated from current and retrospective data generated by a single labor force survey.

The increment-decrement labor force status life tables for the United States, 1972 reflected the extent to which the labor force participation of males exceeded that of females, but indicated that, on the average, half a woman’s lifetime between the ages of 16 and 65 was spent in the labor force. There were marked differences in the proportions, by age, of males and females in the labor force, with the male pattern rising to a single, flat peak and the female pattern being bimodal. Nonetheless, the two sexes shared similar age patterns in the proportions changing, or not changing, their labor force status.
Some New Techniques for Applying the Housing Unit Method of Local Population Estimation
Authors: Smith Stanley K. , Lewis Bart B.
Published: March 2007

The housing unit method of population estimation is often characterized as being imprecise and having an upward bias. We believe that the method itself cannot properly be characterized by a particular level of precision or direction of bias. Only specific techniques of applying the method can have such characteristics. In this paper we discuss several new techniques we have developed for estimating households and the average number of persons per household. Estimates produced by these techniques are compared to estimates produced by several other techniques. Special census results from Florida provide preliminary evidence that the new techniques produce more precise, less biased estimates than the other techniques.
A Note on the use of Regression Methods in Population Estimates
Authors: O’Hare W. P.
Published: March 2007

Evidence which has emerged in the past few years indicates that the relative accuracy of population estimates derived from the ratio-correlation method and the difference-correlation method varies from state to state. In assessing the possible reasons why neither technique is uniformly more accurate, attention is focused on the temporal instability of the statistical relationships between symptomatic indicators and population change. The author concludes that further improvement in population estimates based on regression techniques is likely to be limited until demographers derive means of measuring and adjusting for these temporal changes.
Estimating russification of ethnic identity among non-Russians in the USSR
Authors: Anderson Barbara A. , Silver Brian D.
Published: March 2007

Many scholars have asserted that extensive ethnic russification has occurred in Tsarist Russia and the Soviet Union, but little effort has been devoted to making quantitative estimates of the extent of assimilation or of the differences among ethnic groups in tendencies to assimilate. A method of estimating ethnic reidentification in the USSR is described and evaluated. The expected number of survivors to the second census date for each age cohort of a given ethnic group is compared to the reported number of cohort members at the second census date to determine the net number who have changed their ethnic self-identification between censuses. The method establishes relative differences in the propensity to reidentify ethnically among 26 Soviet ethnic groups. Many small ethnic groups in European Russia are found to have very high estimated rates of ethnic russification; non-Russian Slavs—Ukrainians and Belorussians—are found to have fairly low estimated rates of ethnic russification. The implications of the Russian gain in population through ethnic reidentification also are assessed.
Mortality levels and family fertility goals
Authors: Parlange J. Y. , Guilfoyle M. J. , Rickson R. E.
Published: March 2007

The relationship between mortality levels and family fertility goals is a fundamental problem in the theory of the demographic transition. This paper deals with the logical problems of estimating family fertility rates from the expected probability of a child surviving to a given age of a parent. The possibility of committing the ecological fallacy makes precise prediction difficult. We critically analyze an existing mathematical model of family fertility decisions. We show that, by incorporating more data (here, on birth order) in a more comprehensive model capable of using those data, then the predictability of fertility rates over time can be significantly improved.
Accuracy of death certificate ages for the extreme aged
Authors: Rosenwaike Ira , Logue Barbara
Published: March 2007

This study attempts to verify age reporting on the death certificate for the “extreme aged” population and to evaluate the accuracy of recent death rates for this group in light of the findings. In addition, methods used and problems encountered in carrying out a record linkage study, particularly a low match rate, are identified. A sample of more than three thousand death records was selected from those filed for decedents age 85 and over in Pennsylvania and New Jersey in the 1968 to 1972 period. Death certificates of 53 percent of whites and 30 percent of nonwhites were linked to the 1900 U.S. Census. A comparison of age on the death certificate with the age reported for the same individual in the census record showed a high level of agreement for whites, except at ages 100 and over; for nonwhites, however, age agreement levels were substantially lower. Within racial groups, there was little difference by sex in agreement on age. These results, corroborating those of earlier studies, make it clear that nonwhite mortality at the oldest ages has been consistently understated in official statistics.
The Family Formation Process Among U.S. Marriage Cohorts
Authors: Tsui Amy Ong
Published: March 2007

The family formation process is viewed as the progression of women through first marriage, first, subsequent, and last births and is examined for differential patterns of timing in 1930–1969 marriage cohorts. Based on the childbearing histories of approximately 17,000 white women once and still married, extracted from the June 1975 Current Population Survey, the study uses a dynamic model to show the varying importance across cohorts of the first birth interval as an important indicator of the total time spent in childbearing, social background effects in differentiating the timing of the first two births, and of prior birth transitions as affecting subsequent ones.
Racial Inequalities in Housing: An Examination of Recent Trends
Authors: Bianchi Suzanne M. , Farley Reynolds , Spain Daphne
Published: March 2007

Changes in racial differences in homeownership and objective indicators of housing quality are examined using 1960 Census data and 1977 Annual Housing Survey data. Blacks, net of differences in socioeconomic status, family composition, and regional-metropolitan location, remained less likely than whites to own homes and somewhat more likely to live in older, crowded and structurally inadequate units in 1977. In general, however, net effects for race were much smaller in 1977 than in 1960. Racial differences in homeownership and crowding were smaller among recent movers than among the total sample in 1977, suggesting continued but gradual improvement in housing conditions for blacks in the latter 1970s.
A Cross-Cultural Examination of the Relationship Between Ages at Menarche, Marriage, and First Birth
Authors: Udry J. Richard , Cliquet R. L.
Published: March 2007

Recent work with samples of black and white urban American women showed a clear behavioral sequence relating age at menarche to age at first intercourse to age at first birth. This paper shows that the linking of ages at menarche, intercourse, marriage, and first birth is a pattern which occurs in very diverse cultures. We present confirmatory data from the United States, Belgium, and Pakistan, and from Malay and Chinese women in Malaysia. We interpret our findings as indicating a biological process leading to (a) social interpretations of readiness for reproduction, and (b) persisting biological differences between early and late maturing women.
Income and Fertility: The Elusive Relationship
Authors: Freedman Deborah S. , Thornton Arland
Published: March 2007

This paper uses longitudinal data for 1962–1977 to examine the relationship of husband’s income to 1962 expected fertility, to final parity, and to the discrepancy between initial expectations and final parity, separately for four groups of women who in 1962 either had just given birth to a first, second, or fourth child or had just been married. Although economic reasons frequently were cited in 1977 for downward revisions in family size goals, husband’s income was not positively related to fertility in three of the four parity groups. For the merged sample, excluding women with unwanted births, husband’s income showed a small positive relationship to completed fertility.
Some Effects of Spouse Separation on Fertility
Authors: Potter R. G. , Kobrin F. E.
Published: March 2007

Simple probability models incorporating an approximation first demonstrated by Menken (1979) are used to study births averted by two classes of temporary spouse separation, single and cyclic, under conditions of natural fertility. For either class of spouse separation, births averted increases disproportionately with longer separation. For a given length of separation, births prevented are more sensitive to change in length of anovulation than to change in level ofnatural fecundability or risk of spontaneous abortion. In addition, by means of the macrosimulation model REPMOD (Bongaarts, 1977), it is shown that the fertility impact of temporary spouse separation tends to decrease as couples age.
The use of model life tables to estimate mortality for the United States in the late nineteenth century
Authors: Haines Michael R.
Published: March 2007

This paper seeks to extend our knowledge about mortality in the late nineteenth century United States by using census mortality data for older children and teenagers to fit model tables. The same method can also be used with partially underregistered death data. The most commonly used model tables, the Coale and Demeny West Model, apparently do not adequately depict the changing shape of mortality over the period 1850–1910. An alternative model life table system is presented, based on the Brass two parameter logit system and available reliable life tables from the period 1850–1910. The two parameter system must be reduced to a one parameter system by means of estimated relationships between the parameters so that the fitting procedure can be used. The resulting model system is, however, heavily dependent on the experience of northern, industrial states, especially Massachusetts.
Relations between demographic parameters
Authors: Demetrius Lloyd
Published: March 2007

The mean life-expectancy describes the average prospective life-time of an individual aged zero. This parameter can be explicitly described in terms of the survivorship distribution of the population. The Malthusian parameter r represents the asymptotic growth rate of a population. This parameter can be implicitly expressed in terms of the net-maternity distribution. The parameters and r incompletely incorporate the age-specific fertility and mortality pattern of a population; distinct populations may have the same growth rate but different net-maternity functions; distinct populations may be characterized by the same mean life expectation but may have different survivorship distributions. This article analyzes a class of parameters called the entropy of a population (Demetrius, 1974a) which distinguishes between net-maternity functions with the same growth rate and also mortality distributions with the same mean life expectation. This class of parameters measures the convexity of the fertility and mortality distributions. This paper analyzes the relations between the entropy parameter and the standard demographic parameters.
Changes in Fertility Expectations and Preferences between 1962 and 1977: Their Relation to Final Parity
Authors: Freedman Ronald , Freedman Deborah S. , Thornton Arland D.
Published: March 2007

Changing fertility expectations and preferences from 1962 to 1977 are compared with final parity in a longitudinal study. Results are strongly affected by initial parity in 1962. Final parity, 27 percent below expectations for those initially childless, illustrates the effect for couples free to change expectations downward of declining fertility preferences. Changes in expectations early in marriage had a significant long-term effect on final parity, as did early differences between wife’s expectations and husband’s preferences. Unplanned births increased final parity significantly. Religion, education, and income had no systematic relation to the discrepancy between initial expectations and final parity.
Racial Equity or Racial Equality
Authors: Daymont Thomas N.
Published: March 2007

This study examines the relationship between racial equity in labor market processes and racial equality in future labor market rewards. In particular, a regression standardization procedure is used to project the degree of racial inequality in earnings that would exist among men at various future points in time based on three different sets of assumptions about attainment processes in labor market and educational institutions. The most important results suggest that even if racial discrimination were eliminated immediately in labor market and educational institutions, it would take almost 50 years for the black-white earnings ratio to reach .95. This incompatibility between equity and equality needs to be considered more explicitly both by those who advocate a color-blind labor market and those who advocate preferential treatment for blacks.
Racial differences in infant mortality by cause of death: The impact of birth weight and maternal age
Authors: Eberstein Isaac W. , Parker Jan Reese
Published: March 2007

This research examines racial disparities in infant mortality, overall and separately according to cause of death. Using linked birth and death records for the 1975 cohort of live births in Florida, racial differences are initially described and then explained statistically as a product of the distribution of births by birth weight and maternal age. The impact of birth weight is more pronounced than is the effect of maternal age. The analysis suggests the potential utility of examining infant mortality separately by cause of death. Based on the findings, we argue for systematic research focused on factors affecting birth weight.
Use of surnames in ethnic research: The case of Kims in the Korean-American population
Authors: Shin Eui-Hang , Yu Eui-Young
Published: March 2007

This paper introduces a method for estimating the size of the Korean American population in communities in the United States. Since about 22 percent of Korean Americans have the surname Kim and the telephone subscription/listing rate for Korean Americans is extremely high, a fairly simple equation for such estimation can be constructed. The number of Kims listed in the published telephone directory for a community, the mean size of the Kim households, the residence telephone subscription! listing rate, and the proportion of Kims are the factors included in the equation. A specific value for each of the factors has been derived from various “unobtrusive” and nongovernmental sources. Only insignificant differences have been found between estimates made using this method and the enumeration figures from the 1980 census for the Korean American population in the New York metropolitan area and Los Angeles and Orange counties. It appears that the equation is effective in estimating the size of the Korean American population in a community and could be a useful instrument in evaluating the accuracy of the 1980 Census enumeration of Korean Americans. The paper also describes the potential utility of Kims listed in published telephone directories as a sampling frame of Korean Americans in the United States. The ideas and procedures presented here can be extended to other ethnic populations with unique surnames, such as Nguyen for the Vietnamese American population and those starting with “Yama” ... for the Japanese American population.
Confidence Intervals for Postcensal State Population Estimates
Authors: Espenshade Thomas J. , Tayman Jeffrey M.
Published: March 2007

This paper develops a methodology for constructing confidence intervals around postcensal state population estimates. Using regression equations, forecast intervals are derived around the average age-specific death rates over the postcensal estimation period. These results, combined with the number of postcensal deaths and the most current census counts, are translated into confidence intervals for the age structure. Two approaches are offered for constructing total population confidence intervals. One examines a simulated distribution while the other focuses on the mathematical derivation of population means and variances. The methodology is illustrated by deriving statistically defensible confidence intervals around the July 1, 1975 population of Florida.
The Use of Mortality Time Series Data to Produce Hypothetical Morbidity Distributions and Project Mortality Trends
Authors: Manton Kenneth G. , Stallard Eric
Published: March 2007

It is difficult to obtain direct empirical estimates of chronic disease prevalence in the U.S. population. The available estimates are usually derived from epidemiological studies of selected populations. In this paper we present strategies for estimating morbidity distributions in the national population using auxiliary biomedical evidence and theory to estimate transitions to morbidity states from a cohort mortality time series. We present computational methods which employ these estimates of morbid state transitions to produce life table functions for both primary (morbidity) and secondary (mortality) decrements. These methods are illustrated using data on stomach cancer mortality for nine white male cohorts, aged 30 to 70 in 1950, observed for a 28-year period (1950 to 1977).