bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
COMPARING SAMPLING SCHEMES FOR MONITORING POLLUTANT EXPORT FROM A DAIRY PASTURE1
Authors: Line Daniel E. , Harman William A. , Jennings Gregory D.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Dairy cow pastures and feeding areas around barns can be a significant source of nonpoint source pollutants to nearby streams. To help document the significance of these sources, nutrient export in streamfiow from a 56.7‐ha, mostly agricultural, watershed located in southwestern North Carolina was monitored from August 1994 to January 1996. Total nitrogen and phosphorus export rates from the upper, predominantly pasture, part of the watershed were 18.0 and 1.4 kg/ha/yr, respectively, as measured by weekly grab sampling and 18.7 and 4.9 kg/halyr, respectively, as measured from storm event monitoring. Nitrogen and phosphorus export rates for the area between the monitoring sites, which included overgrazed cow holding and feeding areas and farm buildings, were 376 and 86 kgfhalyr, respectively, for grab sampling and 351 and 160 kg/ha/yr, respectively, for storm event monitoring. To estimate the amount of reduction from nonpoint source controls necessary to effect a significant reduction in pollutant loading, statistical analyses of the load data were conducted. The analyses for the five pollutants monitored showed that total suspended solids would require the greatest reduction (34.6 percent for weekly grab and 33.6 percent for storm) in loading after the implementation of controls for statistical significance. Nitrate plus nitrite was found to require the least reduction (12.6 percent for weekly grab). Pollutant export rates computed from weekly grab samples and storm event samples used separately were compared to corresponding export rates computed from combining grab and storm event samples to assess the differences in monitoring schemes.
HYDROLOGIC BALANCE OF LAKE CHAPALA (MEXICO)1
Authors: de Anda José , Quinones‐Cisneros Sergio E. , French Richard H. , Guzmán Manuel
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Lake Chapala, whose primary tributary is the Río Lerma, is the largest freshwater lake in Mexico and for the past 95 years has maintained an average storage capacity close to 6,700 Mm3. Starting hi the early 1970s, the Lerma‐Chapala basin rapidly industrialized. In response to these upstream anthropogenic activities, the fisheries, aesthetics, and water quality of Lake Chapala have decreased as a consequence of the increasing chemical and biologic pollutants mainly from the Río Lerma. Additionally, the growth of Guadalajara has resulted in increasing potable water demands on the lake to satisfy a population currently greater than 4.5 million. During the 1980s, the outflow and water losses from the lake substantially exceeded the inflow and other water contributions. In this paper, the recent behavior of the hydrologic and bathymetric parameters of Lake Chapala are summarized and some important physical stresses on the system are identified. The focus of this work is the 1934–1989 period, and it is shown that starting around 1980 some of the main contributors to the lake water balance were severely perturbed and the lake reached its second lowest recorded level. The disturbances of the system are so severe that the entire regional ecosystem could be irreversibly affected in the near future.
ECONOMIC AND WATER QUALITY EFFECTS OF VARIABLE AND UNIFORM APPLICATION OF NITROGEN1
Authors: Prato Tony , Kang Choongkwan
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Nitrogen (N) fertilizer rates for achieving optimum crop yields often vary within a field due to spatial variability in soil moisture and nitrogen content and other crop growth factors. When there is substantial within‐field variability in these factors, uniform application of N (UAN) may not be economically efficient in terms of maximizing net return because N is likely to be over‐applied in some areas and under‐applied in other areas of the field. In addition, over‐application can adversely affect water quality. A sample of fields in a Midwestern agricultural watershed is used to test for statistically significant differences in N application rates, crop yields, surface and ground water quality and net returns between UAN and variable application of N (VAN) for four cropping systems. Profitability and water quality benefits of VAN are sensitive to the distribution of soil types within a field. Water quality effects and profitability of UAN and VAN vary with cropping systems. VAN is not uniformly superior to UAN in terms of increasing net returns and improving water quality for the farming systems and watershed evaluated in this study.
COMPLIANCE WITH STORM WATER POLLUTION PREVENTION REGULATIONS BY THE METAL FINISHING INDUSTRY1
Authors: Duke L. Donald , Bauersachs Lisette A.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Federal and state storm water pollutant control regulations for industry require facilities to identify themselves and to implement appropriate controls specifically developed for each facility by its operators. Compliance is not directly observable from publicly reported information, and is believed to be low. Compliance requirements are divided into three stages: determination and notification of duty to comply; preparation of public reports and site‐specific planning documents; and implementation of pollution prevention activities. Aggregate data show about 25 percent to 35 percent of metal plating facilities in California, and about 35 percent to 40 percent of facilities in the Los Angeles region, have recognized the need for first‐stage compliance; the number required but failing to do so is not known. For second‐stage compliance, between 77 percent and 88 percent of facilities submitted required annual reports from 1993 to 1995, while on‐site water quality monitoring reports were submitted by about 60 percent of required facilities. Site investigations of ten Los Angeles area facilities showed variation in compliance with site‐specific documentation and implementation requirements. Most facilities inadequately evaluated activities for potential storm water pollutants, and most prepared incomplete plans for storm water sampling and inspection procedures. Evaluation of third‐stage compliance by evaluating quantitative effects of facility actions, beyond the scope of this research, is recommended.
ESTIMATION OF REGIONAL EVAPOTRANSPIRATION FROM ARID AND SEMI‐ARID SURFACES1
Authors: Liu Jingmiao , Kotoda Kazuo
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Evapotranspiration (ET) from oasis and Gobi surfaces in the Heihe River region of China was estimated by Kotoda (1986) and Advection‐Aridity (Brutsaert and Stricker, 1979) models. The ET estimates were compared with eddy‐correlation ET estimates. The ET estimated by both models are in good agreement with ET obtained by means of eddy‐correlation method for the oasis surface while underestimating ET as compared to the eddy‐correlation method. For the Gobi surface, the models yielded obviously overestimates of evapotranspiration.

In order to estimate evapotranspiration from arid surfaces, the Kotoda model was modified by introducing the surface moisture availability parameter a from Barton (1979). The modified Kotoda model yielded ET estimates that were very close to that from the eddy‐correlation method for the Gobi surface. The modified Kotoda model was used to estimate evapotranspiration from the Heihe River watershed, an area with complicated topography and land use, and the results compared with those from a water balance method. A sensitivity analysis of the modified model was performed. The results show that the modified Kotoda model can reflect the relationship between the actual evapotranspiration and the main controlling factors on it for both wet and arid surfaces reasonably. From this study, it can be concluded that the modified Kotoda model is applicable fro the estimation of regional evapotranspiration from areas with complicated topography and land use.
LARGE AREA HYDROLOGIC MODELING AND ASSESSMENT PART II: MODEL APPLICATION1
Authors: Srinivasan R. , Ramanarayanan T. S. , Arnold J. G. , Bednarz S. T.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: This paper describes the application of a river basin scale hydrologic model (described in Part I) to Richland and Chambers Creeks watershed (RC watershed) in upper Trinity River basin in Texas. The inputs to the model were accumulated from hydro‐graphic and geographic databases and maps using a raster‐based GIS. Available weather data from 12 weather stations in and around the watershed and stream flow data from two USGS stream gauge station for the period 1965 to 1984 were used in the flow calibration and validation. Sediment calibration was carried out for the period 1988 through 1994 using the 1994 sediment survey data from the Richland‐Chambers lake. Sediment validation was conducted on a subwatershed (Mill Creek watershed) situated on Chambers Creek of the RC watershed. The model was evaluated by well established statistical and visual methods and was found to explain at least 84 percent and 65 percent of the variability in the observed stream flow data for the calibration and validation periods, respectively. In addition, the model predicted the accumulated sediment load within 2 percent and 9 percent from the observed data for the RC watershed and Mill Creek watershed, respectively.
LONG‐TERM EQUILIBRIUM PHOSPHORUS CONCENTRATIONS IN THE EVERGLADES AS PREDICTED BY A VOLLENWEIDER‐TYPE MODEL1
Authors: Moustafa M. Z.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Anthropogenic phosphorus loading, mainly from the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA), is believed to be the primary cause of eutrophication in the Everglades. The state of Florida has adopted a plan for addressing Everglades eutrophication problems by reducing anthropogenic phosphorus loads through the implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs) in agricultural watersheds and the construction of stormwater treatment areas (STAs). Optimizing the effectiveness of these STAs for reducing phosphorus concentrations from agricultural runoff is a critical component of the District's comprehensive Everglades protection effort. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop a simple tool that can be used to estimate STAs’performance and evaluate management alternatives considered in the Everglades restoration efforts. The model was tested at two south Florida wetland sites and then was used to simulate several management alternatives and predict ecosystem responses to reduced external phosphorus (P) loadings. Good agreement between model predictions at the two wetland sites and actual observations indicated that the model can be used as a management tool to predict wetlands’response to reductions in external phosphorus load and long‐term P levels in aquatic ecosystems. Model results showed that lowering P content of the Everglades Protection Area (EPA) depends on reducing P loads originating from EAA discharges, not from rainfall. Assuming no action is taken (e.g., no BMPs or STAs implemented), the steady state model predicted that the average concentration within the modeled area of the marsh would reach 20 μg L−1 within five years. With an 85 percent reduction in P loading, the steady‐state model predicted that Water Conservation Area 2A (WCA‐2A) P concentration will equilibrate at approximately 10 μ L−1, while elimination of all loadings is projected to further reduce marsh P to values less than 10 μg L−1.
PREDICTION OF MEAN ANNUAL FLOWS IN NORTH AND CENTRAL FLORIDA1
Authors: Waylen Peter R. , Zorn Matthew R.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT:A frequency analysis approach for the prediction of flow characteristics at ungaged locations is applied to a region of high annual precipitation and low topography in north and central Florida. Stationary time series of annual flows are fitted with the lognormal distribution and estimated parameters of the distribution are fitted by third order trend surfaces. These explain 65 and 74 percent of the observed variances in the mean and standard deviation, respectively. Predictions of parameters are then made for several locations previously unused in the study and they are used to estimate the return periods of various flows from the lognormal distribution. Application of the Kolmogorov‐Smirnov goodness‐of‐fit test suggests that only one of the five test stations can be considered significantly different from the observed data, confirming the applicability of this technique.
ACCEPTING THE STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX: A CALCULATION ALGORITHM1
Authors: Guttman Nathaniel B.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: The Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) has been calculated for about 30 years as a means of providing a single measure of meteorological drought severity. It was intended to retrospectively look at wet and dry conditions using water balance techniques. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is a probability index that was developed to give a better representation of abnormal wetness and dryness than the Palmer indices. Before the user community will accept the SPI as an alternative to the Palmer indices, a standard method must be developed for computing the index. Standardization is necessary so that all users of the index will have a common basis for both spatial and temporal comparison of index values. If different probability distributions and models are used to describe an observed series of precipitation, then different SPI values may be obtained. This article describes the effect on the SPI values computed from different probability models as well as the effects on dry event characteristics. It is concluded that the Pearson Type III distribution is the “best” universal model, and that the reliability of the SPI is sample size dependent. It is also concluded that because of data limitations, SPIs with time scales longer than 24 months may be unreliable. An internet link is provided that will allow users to access Fortran 77 source code for calculating the SPI.
EFFECT OF FLOW VELOCITY ON SEDIMENT OXYGEN DEMAND: COMPARISON OF THEORY AND EXPERIMENTS1
Authors: Josiam Rajalakshmi M. , Stefan Heinz G.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Theoretical equations that establish the relationship between sediment oxygen demand (SOD) in a lake and the flow velocity and dissolved oxygen concentration in the bulk water already exist. These theoretical equations for oxygen consumption in the sediment express biological consumption with Michaelis‐Menten kinetics, and chemical consumption by a first order reaction. Data from laboratory experiments that were conducted to validate the theoretical equations also exist. These experiments were performed in a laboratory channel with well defined flow characteristics for three types of sediments. Herein, the theoretical equations are used to model the experimental data for the three types of sediments. The values used for the parameters in the theoretical equations are determined by iteration until a best fit is obtained for the relationship of SOD to flow velocity from both the theoretical model and experimental data. The goodness of fit is measured by the standard error of prediction and the regression coefficient.
THE (POLITICAL) SCIENCE OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT IN THE ECOSYSTEM AGE1
Authors: Ruhl J. B.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Ecosystem management has become an important unifying theme for environmental policy in the past decade. Whereas the science of ecosystem dynamics suggests that it will remain difficult to define ecosystem borders and all of the natural and anthropogenic effects that influence them, the politics of ecosystem management require that a national ecosystem delineation standard be adopted. Moreover, a political framework for ecosystem management decision making must be designed in such a way as to complement the hierarchical, interrelated nature of ecosystems generally. This paper advocates that a watershed‐based ecosystem delineation standard is the most politically suitable because it will be easily understood by the public and watersheds have a long history as a medium of environmental policy. The paper then proposes that the political framework for watershed‐based ecosystem management must depend heavily on state and local autonomy, subject to federally prescribed standards and goals. The Coastal Zone Management Act provides a model for how a national ecosystem management policy can work within state and local watershed cultures and economies.
STATE WATER LAW REFORM: IDENTIFYING LEGAL AND MANAGERIAL ISSUES AND OPTIONS1
Authors: Harrington Keith W. , Feather Timothy D. , Clark Gary R.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Statutory and case law at the state level provide critical legal frameworks for water management. As many state governments struggle to improve efficiency in water management and resolve conflicts over water usage, they must continually assess the efficacy of their state water law. Most states have water laws that are disconnected and overlapping. This article presents a methodology to assess state water law and take first steps toward a comprehensive state water resources act. The methodology is driven by issues and conflicts in water management. It synthesizes management and legal analyses into a process that incorporates the diverse perspectives of state water stakeholders. The results of the analysis are identification of management issues, profiles of state water law, and explorations of legal options that are available to the state government. Illinois is provided as a case study for this methodology.
FORECASTING FUTURE LAND USE FOR WATERSHED ASSESSMENT1
Authors: Butcher Jonathan B.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Protecting surface water quality in watersheds undergoing demographic change requires both the management of existing threats and planning to address potential future stresses arising from changing land use. Many reservoirs and threatened waterbodies are located in areas undergoing rapid population growth, and increases in density of residential and commercial land use, accompanied by increased amount of impervious surface area, can result in increased pollutant loading and degradation of water quality. Effective planning to address potential threats, including zoning and growth management, requires analytical tools to predict and compare the impacts of different management options. The focus of this paper is not on developing demographic projections, but rather the translation of such projections into changes in land use which form the basis for assessment of future watershed loads. Land use change can be forecast at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A semi‐lumped, GIS‐based, transition matrix approach is recommended as consistent with the level of complexity achievable in most watershed models. Practical aspects of forecasting future land use for watershed assessment are discussed. Several recent reservoir water supply projection studies are used to demonstrate a general framework for simulating changes in land use and resulting impacts on water quality. In addition to providing a technical basis for selecting optimal management alternatives, such a tool is invaluable for demonstrating to different stakeholder groups the trade‐offs among management alternatives, both in terms of water quality and future land use patterns within the watershed.
ASSESSMENT OF PREDICTORS FOR STREAM EUTROPHICATION POTENTIAL1
Authors: Toetz Dale , Tang Letong , Storm Daniel E. , Mihuc Timothy , Smolen Michael D.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Predicting stream eutrophication potential from non‐point source nutrient loading across large temporal and spatial scales is a significant problem. In this paper we describe how two physiological indicators of P stress of stream bioflims, alkaline phosphatase activity (APA) and stored (surplus) P relate to two predictors of P loading: annual P loading predicted by the watershed model SIMPLE, and stream concentrations of soluble reactive P (SRP) in eight subbasins in the illinois River basin in Oklahoma. Data for APA, surplus P, nutrients and water chemistry were obtained at watershed outlets once during the cold season and twice during the warm season. There was a negative curvilinear relationship between APA and both predictors. Best fit was achieved by APA vs. annual predicted P loading. Both SRP and P. load are potentially useful to identify subbasins requiring no pollution abatement and to establish a regional target for P‐load reduction. Surplus P is not as useful as APA in establishing these thresholds.
RELATION OF MACROINVERTEBRATE COMMUNITY IMPAIRMENT TO CATCHMENT CHARACTERISTICS IN NEW JERSEY STREAMS1
Authors: Kennen Jonathan G.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: The level of macroinvertebrate community impairment was statistically related to selected basin and water‐quality characteristics in New Jersey streams. More than 700 ambient biomonitoring stations were chosen to evaluate potential and known anthropogenic effects. Macroinvertebrate communities were assessed with a modified rapid‐bioassessment approach using three impairment ratings (nonimpaired, moderately impaired, and severely impaired). Maximum‐likelihood multiple logistic‐regression analysis was used to develop equations defining the probability of community impairment above predetermined impairment levels. Seven of the original 140 explanatory variables were highly related to the level of community impairment. Explanatory variables found to be most useful for predicting severe macroinvertebrate community impairment were the amount of urban land and total flow of municipal effluent. Area underlain by the Reading Prong physiographic region and amount of forested land were inversely related to severe impairment. Nonparametric analysis of variance on rank‐transformed bioassessment scores was used to evaluate differences in level of impairment among physiographic regions and major drainage areas simultaneously. Rejection of the null hypothesis indicated that the levels of impairment among all six physiographic regions and five major drainage areas were not equal. Physiographic regions located in the less urbanized northwest portion of New Jersey were not significantly different from each other and had the lowest occurrence of severely impaired macroinvertebrate communities. Physiographic regions containing urban centers had a higher probability of exhibiting a severely impaired macroinvertebrate community. Analysis of major drainage areas indicates that levels of impairment in the Atlantic Coastal Rivers drainage area differed significantly from those in the Lower Delaware River drainage area.
TRANSPORT OF SEDIMENT‐BOUND ORGANOCHLORINE PESTICIDES TO THE SAN JOAQUIN RWER, CALIFORNIA1
Authors: Kratzer Charles R.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Suspended sediment samples were collected in west‐side tributaries and the main stem of the San Joaquin River, California, in June 1994 during the irrigation season and in January 1995 during a winter storm. These samples were analyzed for 15 organochiorine pesticides to determine their occurrence and their concentrations on suspended sediment and to compare transport during the irrigation season (April to September) to transport during winter storm runoff (October to March). Ten organochiorine pesticides were detected during the winter storm runoff; seven during the irrigation season. The most frequently detected organochlorine pesticides during both sampling periods were p,p'‐DDE, p,p'‐DDT, p,p'‐DDD, dieldrin, toxaphene, and chiordane. Dissolved samples were analyzed for three organochiorine pesticides during the irrigation season and for 15 during the winter storm. Most calculated total concentrations of p,p‐DDT, chlordane, dieldrin, and toxaphene exceeded chronic criteria for the protection of freshwater aquatic life. At eight sites in common between sampling periods, suspended sediment concentrations and streamfiow were greater during the winter storm runoff ‐ median concentration of 3,590 mg/L versus 489 mg(L and median streamfiow of 162 ft3/s versus 11 ft3/s. Median concentrations of total DDT (sum of p,p'‐DDD, p,p‐DDE, and p,p'‐DDT), chlordane, dieldrin, and toxaphene on suspended sediment were slightly greater during the irrigation season, but instantaneous loads of organochlorine pesticides at the time of sampling were substantially greater during the winter storm. Estimated loads for the entire irrigation season exceeded estimated loads for the January 1995 storm by about 2 to 4 times for suspended transport and about 3 to 11 times for total transport. However, because the mean annual winter runoff is about 2 to 4 times greater than the runoff during the January 1995 storm, mean winter transport may be similar to irrigation season transport. This conclusion is tentative primarily because of insufficient information on long‐term seasonal variations in suspended sediment and organochlorine concentrations. Nevertheless, runoff from infrequent winter storms will continue to deliver a significant load of sediment‐bound organochiorine pesticides to the San Joaquin River even if irrigation‐induced sediment transport is reduced. As a result, concentrations of organochlorine pesticides in San Joaquin River biota will continue to be relatively high compared to other regions of the United States.
CONTINENTAL SCALE SIMULATION OF THE HYDROLOGIC BALANCE1
Authors: Arnold J. G. , Srinivasan R. , Muttiah R. S. , Allen P. M.
Published: June 2007

This paper describes the application of a continuous daily water balance model called SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for the conterminous U.S. The local water balance is represented by four control volumes; (1) snow, (2) soil profile, (3) shallow aquifer, and (4) deep aquifer. The components of the water balance are simulated using “storage” models and readily available input parameters. All the required databases (soils, landuse, and topography) were assembled for the conterminous U.S. at 1:250,000 scale. A GIS interface was utilized to automate the assembly of the model input files from map layers and relational databases. The hydrologic balance for each soil association polygon (78,863 nationwide) was simulated without calibration for 20 years using dominant soil and land use properties. The model was validated by comparing simulated average annual runoff with long term average annual runoff from USGS stream gage records. Results indicate over 45 percent of the modeled U.S. are within 50 mm of measured, and 18 percent are within 10 mm without calibration. The model tended to under predict runoff in mountain areas due to lack of climate stations at high elevations. Given the limitations of the study, (i.e., spatial resolution of the data bases and model simplicity), the results show that the large scale hydrologic balance can be realistically simulated using a continuous water balance model.
FROM FLOW TO FISH TO DOLLARS: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO WATER ALLOCATION1
Authors: Hickey John T , Diaz Gustavo E.
Published: June 2007

This paper details a case study of economic and natural system responses to alternative water management policies in the Cache La Poudre River basin, Colorado, 1980–1994. The case study is presented to highlight the value and application of a conceptual integration of economic, salmonid population, physical habitat, and water allocation models. Five alternative regimes, all intended to increase low winter flows, were investigated. Habitat enhancements created by alternative regimes were translated to population responses and economic benefits. Analysis concluded that instream flows cannot compete on the northern Colorado water rental market; cooperative agreements offer an economically feasible way to enhance instream flows; and establishing an instream flow program on the Cache La Poudre River mainstem is a potentially profitable opportunity. The alliance of models is a dynamic multidisciplinary tool for use in professional settings and offers valuable insight for decision‐making processes involved in water management.
EQUILIBRIUM EVAPORATION AND POSITWE EVAPORATION‐SURFACE TEMPERATURE RELATIONSHIPS ACROSS A GRASSLAND1
Authors: Qualls Russell J. , Wagstaff Mark , Crago Richard D.
Published: June 2007

Sensible (H) and latent (LE) heat fluxes, soil moisture (SM) and surface temperatures (Ts) were analyzed from seven sites at FIFE to evaluate relationships among the spatial variability of evaporative fraction, EF, SM, and the diurnal surface temperature range (Tdr). Intersite correlations between EF and Tdr were significantly negative for regional average soil moisture SMr < 20 percent, insignificant for 20 < SMr < 27 percent, and slightly positive for SMr > 27 percent. Statistical analysis of the pooled correlation coefficient between EF and Tdr for SMr < 20 percent indicates that it is less than zero at a very high level of significance, while the pooled correlation coefficient for regional SMr > 27 percent is greater than zero at the 10 percent level. The positive EF:Tdr correlations are attributed to increased surface vapor pressure at warmer sites under nearly potential conditions. These results suggest that to characterize the spatial variability of the energy budget partitioning, a variable representing the thermal response of the site should be included. An important application of these findings relates to modeling the subgrid variability of a region by subdividing the region into a few classes within which surface variables and parameters are assumed invariant. The thermal response of the surface should be included as a variable in defining these classes.
VERIFICATION AND APPLICATION OF REGIONAL EQUATIONS FOR THE STORAGE FUNCTION RUNOFF MODEL1
Authors: Sugiyama Hironobu , Kadoya Mutsumi , Nagai Akihiro , Lansey Kevin
Published: June 2007

The storage function model is a nonlinear rainfall‐runoff model that has been developed for and applied to flood runoff analysis in Japan. This paper extends the model applicability by developing practical equations for estimating model parameters which are appropriate on a regional basis, i.e., so‐called regional equations. Previously, the parameters were computed from historical data for a specific basin or from relationships that do not account for land use and topography.

To develop the regionalized equations, model parameters were identified for 91 flood events from 22 watersheds in Japan by applying a mathematical optimization technique. Results from 39 of these events were statistically compared and regional relationships were determined as a function of land use, basin area and rainfall intensity. The utility of the estimated equations were tested by computing runoff hydrographs for lumped basins. The estimated parameters were also applied in a distributed watershed model formulation. Both applications showed acceptable results that validate the use of the regionalized relationships.
LONG‐TERM VARIATIONS IN SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS IMPORTANT TO WATER RESOURCES IN ILLINOIS1
Authors: Winstanley Derek , Changnon Stanley A.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT:An analysis of historical relationships between seasonal weather conditions and water resource conditions in Illinois provides insights to the challenges of projecting such relationships under conditions of climate change. In Illinois for 1901–1997 there were major temporal shifts in types of seasonal conditions that have positive and negative effects on surface water and ground water supplies and their quality. Major seasonal effects came in the spring and summer seasons and when either wet‐and‐warm or dry‐and‐warm weather conditions prevailed in either season. Sixty percent of the summer seasons creating negative impacts occurred during only 40 years: 1911–1940 and 1951–1960. Seasons creating impacts relate well to the frequency of cyclone passages and to the incidence of El Niño or La Niña conditions. This reveals that future climate fluctuations that shift the frequency of cyclones and/or ENSO events will have profound effects on Midwestern seasonal conditions that affect water resources. Projecting future effects of climate change on water resources will need to consider how shifts in water use and water management technologies act to re‐define the seasonal weather conditions that are critical.
POTENTIAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON MOUNTAIN WATERSHEDS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST1
Authors: Leung L. Ruby , Wigmosta Mark S.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Global climate change due to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere has serious potential impacts on water resources in the Pacific Northwest. Climate scenarios produced by general circulation models (GCMs) do not provide enough spatial specificity for studying water resources in mountain watersheds. This study uses dynamical downscaling with a regional climate model (RCM) driven by a GCM to simulate climate change scenarios. The RCM uses a subgrid parameterization of orographic precipitation and land surface cover to simulate surface climate at the spatial scale suitable for the representation of topographic effects over mountainous regions. Numerical experiments have been performed to simulate the present‐day climatology and the climate conditions corresponding to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentration. The RCM results indicate an average warming of about 2.5°C, and precipitation generally increases over the Pacific Northwest and decreases over California. These simulations were used to drive a distributed hydrology model of two snow dominated watersheds, the American River and Middle Fork Flathead, in the Pacific Northwest to obtain more detailed estimates of the sensitivity of water resources to climate change. Results show that as more precipitation falls as rain rather than snow in the warmer climate, there is a 60 percent reduction in snowpack and a significant shift in the seasonal pattern of streamflow in the American River. Much less drastic changes are found in the Middle Fork Flathead where snowpack is only reduced by 18 percent and the seasonal pattern of streamflow remains intact. This study shows that the impacts of climate change on water resources are highly region specific. Furthermore, under the specific climate change scenario, the impacts are largely driven by the warming trend rather than the precipitation trend, which is small.
HOW CLIMATE UNCERTAINTY SHOULD BE INCLUDED IN GREAT LAKES MANAGEMENT: MODELING WORKSHOP RESULTS1
Authors: Chao Philip T. , Hobbs Benjamin F. , Venkatesh Boddu N.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: In two workshops, we evaluated decision analysis methods for comparing Lake Erie levels management alternatives under climate change uncertainty. In particular, we wanted to see how acceptable and effective those methods could be in a public planning setting. The methods evaluated included simulation modeling, scenario analysis, decision trees and structured group discussions. We evaluated the methods by interviewing the workshop participants before and after the workshops. The participants, who were experienced Great Lakes water resources managers, concluded that simulation modeling is user‐friendly enough to enable scenario analysis even in workshop settings for large public planning studies. They felt that simulation modeling can improve not only understanding of the system, but also of the options for managing it. Scenario analysis revealed that the decision for the case study, Lake Erie water level regulation, could be altered by the likelihood of climate change. The participants also recommended that structured group discussions be used in public planning settings to elicit ideas and opinions. On the other hand, the participants were less optimistic about decision trees because they felt that the public might view subjective probabilities as difficult to understand and subject to manipulation.
SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL WATER REQUIREMENTS IN THE GULF COAST OF THE UNITED STATES1
Authors: Ritschard Ronald L. , Cruise James F. , Hatch L. Upton
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Competition for water resources is becoming an increasingly important issue in the southeastern U.S. The potential impacts of future precipitation and runoff estimated by a transient global climate model (HADCM2) on competing water resources in the Southeast has been conducted. Issues of agricultural management, irrigation water withdrawals, and water quality were studied over three time periods: 1974–1993, 2020–2039, and 2080–2099 in five water basins identified previously as exhibiting water‐related problems. These basins, which encompass the boundary between Alabama and Mississippi, cover four important agricultural counties in Mississippi. Irrigation water requirements generated by crop growth models for corn, soybeans, and winter wheat were coupled with monthly runoff for the impacted basins estimated by the SWAT water balance model. The results of the study reveal that in the next 20–40 years water availability in the southern portions of the study area will decline as much as 10 percent during times when water requirements for agricultural production are crucial. Maintaining or expanding existing crop yields under future climate regimes may require additional irrigation water and increase competition among other uses such as domestic, industrial, recreational, and ecosystem quality.
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON HYDROLOGY AND WATER RESOURCES IN THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN1
Authors: Hamlet Alan F. , Lettenmaier Dennis P.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: As part of the National Assessment of Climate Change, the implications of future climate predictions derived from four global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate possible future changes to Pacific Northwest climate, the surface water response of the Columbia River basin, and the ability of the Columbia River reservoir system to meet regional water resources objectives. Two representative GCM simulations from the Hadley Centre (HC) and Max Planck Institute (MPI) were selected from a group of GCM simulations made available via the National Assessment for climate change. From these simulations, quasi‐stationary, decadal mean temperature and precipitation changes were used to perturb historical records of precipitation and temperature data to create inferred conditions for 2025, 2045, and 2095. These perturbed records, which represent future climate in the experiments, were used to drive a macro‐scale hydrology model of the Columbia River at 1/8 degree resolution. The altered streamflows simulated for each scenario were, in turn, used to drive a reservoir model, from which the ability of the system to meet water resources objectives was determined relative to a simulated hydrologic base case (current climate). Although the two GCM simulations showed somewhat different seasonal patterns for temperature change, in general the simulations show reasonably consistent basin average increases in temperature of about 1.8–2.1°C for 2025, and about 2.3–2.9°C for 2045. The HC simulations predict an annual average temperature increase of about 4.5°C for 2095. Changes in basin averaged winter precipitation range from ‐1 percent to + 20 percent for the HC and MPI scenarios, and summer precipitation is also variously affected. These changes in climate result in significant increases in winter runoff volumes due to increased winter precipitation and warmer winter temperatures, with resulting reductions in snowpack. Average March 1 basin average snow water equivalents are 75 to 85 percent of the base case for 2025, and 55 to 65 percent of the base case by 2045. By 2045 the reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt, coupled with higher evapotranspiration in early summer, would lead to earlier spring peak flows and reduced runoff volumes from April‐September ranging from about 75 percent to 90 percent of the base case. Annual runoff volumes range from 85 percent to 110 percent of the base case in the simulations for 2045. These changes in streamflow create increased competition for water during the spring, summer, and early fall between non‐firm energy production, irrigation, instream flow, and recreation. Flood control effectiveness is moderately reduced for most of the scenarios examined, and desirable navigation conditions on the Snake are generally enhanced or unchanged. Current levels of winter‐dominated firm energy production are only significantly impacted for the MPI 2045 simulations.
ASSESSING RELATIVE RISKS TO AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS: A MID‐APPALACHIAN CASE STUDY1
Authors: Bryce Sandra A. , Larsen David P , Hughes Robert M. , Kaufmann Philip R.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Aquatic monitoring aims to assess the condition of aquatic habitats and biota. To make statements about condition, the range of human activities and the risks they pose to aquatic ecosystems must be identified. Assessing relative risk and placing sample sites on a human disturbance gradient is necessary for interpreting biological response and distinguishing human disturbance from natural controls in aquatic systems. We describe a process that uses readily available sources, such as topographic maps, aerial photographs, and field information, to identify and prioritize stream reach and watershed stressors for 102 streams in the mid‐Appalachian region of the United States. All perceptible human alterations to riparian and upland areas along with their number, type, intensity, and extent of impact were recorded and ranked; a relative risk index was developed to assign scores to the watersheds. The resulting risk index scores were consistent with measures of stream condition based on water chemistry and benthic macroinvertebrates. The risk index gives a cost‐effective, regional picture of the relative risk of impairment to aquatic ecosystems in the mid‐Appalachian region of the USA and could be modified for other regions or ecosystem types.
“R1‐R4” AND “BOISED” SEDIMENT PREDICTION MODEL TESTS USING FOREST ROADS IN GRANITICS1
Authors: Ketcheson Gary L. , Megahan Walter F. , King John G.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT:Erosion and sedimentation data from research watersheds in the Silver Creek Study Area in central Idaho were used to test the prediction of logging road erosion using the R1‐R4 sediment yield model, and sediment delivery using the “BOISED” sediment yield prediction model. Three small watersheds were instrumented and monitored such that erosion from newly constructed roads and sediment delivery to the mouths of the watersheds could be measured for four years following road construction. The errors for annual surface erosion predictions for the two standard road tests ranged from +31.2 t/ha/yr (+15 percent) to ‐30.3 t/ha/yr (‐63 percent) with an average of zero t/ha/yr and a standard deviation of the differences of 18.7 t/ha/yr. The annual prediction errors for the three watershed scale tests had a greater range from ‐40.8 t/ha/yr (‐70 percent) to +65.3 t/ha/yr (+38 percent) with a mean of ‐1.9 t/ha/yr and a standard deviation of the differences of 25.2 t/ha/yr. Sediment yields predicted by BOISED (watershed scale tests) were consistently greater (average of 2.5 times) than measured sediment yields. Hillslope sediment delivery coefficients in BOISED appear to be overly conservative to account for average site conditions and road locations, and thus over‐predict sediment delivery. Mass erosion predictions from BOISED appear to predict volume well (465 tonnes actual versus 710 tonnes predicted, or a 35 percent difference) over 15 to 20 years, however mass wasting is more episodic than the model predicts.
NUTRIENTS DISCHARGED TO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM EASTERN IOWA WATERSHEDS, 1996.19971
Authors: Becher Kent D. , Schnoebelen Douglas J. , Akers Kimberlee K B.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: The introduction of nutrients from chemical fertilizer, animal manure, wastewater, and atmospheric deposition to the eastern Iowa environment creates a large potential for nutrient transport in watersheds. Agriculture constitutes 93 percent of all land use in eastern Iowa. As part of the U.S. Geological Survey National Water Quality Assessment Program, water samples were collected (typically monthly) from six small and six large watersheds in eastern Iowa between March 1996 and September 1997. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to determine land use and quantify inputs of nitrogen and phosphorus within the study area. Streamliow from the watersheds is to the Mississippi River. Chemical fertilizer and animal manure account for 92 percent of the estimated total nitrogen and 99.9 percent of the estimated total phosphorus input in the study area. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads for 1996 were estimated for nine of the 12 rivers and creeks using a minimum variance unbiased estimator model. A seasonal pattern of concentrations and loads was observed. The greatest concentrations and loads occur in the late spring to early summer in conjunction with row‐crop fertilizer applications and spring nmoff and again in the late fall to early winter as vegetation goes into dormancy and additional fertilizer is applied to row‐crop fields. The three largest rivers in eastern Iowa transported an estimated total of 79,000 metric tons of total nitrogen and 6,800 metric tons of total phosphorus to the Mississippi River in 1996. The estimated mass of total nitrogen and total phosphorus transported to the Mississippi River represents about 19 percent of all estimated nitrogen and 9 percent of all estimated phosphorus input to the study area.
CLIMATE IMPACTS ON URBAN WATER RESOURCES IN THE SOUTHWES THE IMPORTANCE OF CONTEXT1
Authors: Morehouse Barbara J.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Stresses on water resources in the Southwest take many forms and emanate from many different sources, among which are complex institutional arrangements, significant areal and temporal climatic variability, and high urban growth rates. Further challenges to managing supply and demand in this water‐scarce region are posed by environmental, social, and legal differences within and between the individual urban areas. Analysis of the sensitivity of the urban water sector in the Southwest to climatic variability requires careful consideration of these factors. Such analysis, in turn, provides an essential foundation for effective evaluation of the region's sensitivity to longer term climate change.
THE VULNERABILITY OF WETLANDS TO CLIMATE CHANGE: A HYDROLOGIC LANDSCAPE PERSPECTIVE1
Authors: Winter Thomas C.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: The vulnerability of wetlands to changes in climate depends on their position within hydrologic landscapes. Hydrologic landscapes are defined by the flow characteristics of ground water and surface water and by the interaction of atmospheric water, surface water, and ground water for any given locality or region. Six general hydrologic landscapes are defined; mountainous, plateau and high plain, broad basins of interior drainage, riverine, flat coastal, and hummocky glacial and dune. Assessment of these landscapes indicate that the vulnerability of all wetlands to climate change fall between two extremes: those dependent primarily on precipitation for their water supply are highly vulnerable, and those dependent primarily on discharge from regional ground water flow systems are the least vulnerable, because of the great buffering capacity of large ground water flow systems to climate change.