bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Ranking and projection of CMIP6 based on Climatic Extremes performance over Central Europe
Authors: Dhib Saoussen , Halenka Tomas , Holtanova Eva , Verma Shruti , Belda Michal
Published: July 2024

This study explores future projections of climate extreme indices in Central Europe and examines the impact of performance-based subsetting of Global Climate Models (GCMs). To achieve this, we evaluated CMIP6 GCMs based on their accuracy in replicating the observed mean, spatial correlation, and variability of selected climate extreme indices. We analyzed simulations from all available CMIP6 models under four socio-economic scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5), using two baseline periods (1961-1990 and 1981-2010) and two future periods (2021-2050 and 2070-2099). The study considered three air temperature indices: (i) the number of days with daily maximum temperature over 34 °C (Su34), (ii) the number of days with daily maximum temperature over 25 °C (Su25), and (iii) the number of tropical nights with daily minimum temperature over 20 °C (TN). Additionally, we analyzed four rainfall indices: (i) number of days with very heavy precipitation over 20 mm (R20mm), (ii) number of days with heavy precipitation over 10 mm (R10mm), (iii) consecutive dry days (CDD), and (iv) consecutive wet days (CWD) for precipitation thresholds of 1 mm and 2 mm. Our ranking method assigned scores to the models from 1 to 39 for each climate extreme index based on three evaluation metrics: Pearson’s correlation coefficient, the ratio of the mean, and the ratio of the standard deviation. The total rank for each GCM was determined by summing these scores across all indices and metrics.The median of the multi-model ensemble (MME) indicates an important increase in the number of days with very heavy and heavy precipitation, especially towards the end of the century, while the number of consecutive wet days shows minimal change. Consecutive dry days are projected to increase significantly by the late 21st century. There is also a marked rise in the number of summer days and tropical nights, with more pronounced changes in the southern regions of the study area.We selected the top ten models ensemble (BME) based on their performance ranking. For historical periods, the BME showed improved accuracy for the mean of all indices except Su34. For future projections, the BME indicates greater positive changes in very heavy precipitation and consecutive wet days compared to the MME. Conversely, the BME shows smaller changes for Su34 and Su25 indices, particularly for the far future period. The interquartile range (IQR) of R10mm and R20mm is higher for the BME than for the MME. The BME's IQR for CDD is also higher, except under SSP585, where it narrows in both future periods. The IQR for CWD remains similar between the BME and MME, with a higher IQR only under SSP126. For Su25 and Su34, the BME exhibits a higher IQR under all scenarios except SSP585 in the near future. Regarding tropical nights, the BME reduces the IQR across all scenarios while maintaining the MME medians.
On the potential of using smartphone sensors for wildfire hazard estimation through Citizen Science
Authors: Price Colin , Shachaf Hofit , Rostkier-Edelstein Dorita , Mass Cliff
Published: July 2024

Weather conditions that can enhance wildfire potential are a problem faced by many countries around the world. Wildfires can have major economic impacts as well as prolonged effects on populations and ecosystems. Distributing information on fire hazards to the public and first responders in real-time is crucial for fire risk management and risk reduction. Although most fires today are caused by people, weather conditions determine if and how fast the fire spreads.  In particular, research has shown that atmospheric vapor pressure deficit (VPD) is a key parameter predicting the dryness of vegetation and the available fuel for fires. VPD is determined from the environmental air temperature and relative humidity, both of which are readily obtained from smartphones carried by the public.  In this study we use smartphone data from the OpenSignal company, collected during almost 4 years and from more than 40,000 users per day, to estimate VPD values. We have found that smartphone data can provide useful information about fire risk and danger. Here we present two case studies from wildfires in Israel and Portugal in which VPD is calculated using calibrated temperature and relative humidity measurements from smartphones.  Given the rapid growth in the number of smartphones around the globe, we propose applying smartphone data for meteorological research and fire-weather applications. Possible users of these results could be wildfire researchers; public policy specialists in wildfire, climate and disaster management; engineers working with big data; low-income countries; and citizen science advocates.
Comparing extreme sub-daily rainfall projections from convection-permitting climate models and temperature-scaling across an Alpine gradient
Authors: Akbary Rashid , Marani Marco , Dallan Eleonora , Borga Marco
Published: July 2024

Understanding projected changes in sub-daily extreme rainfall in mountainous basins can help increase our capability to adapt to and mitigate against flash floods and debris flows. Here we compare the changes in extreme rainfall projections from apparent Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) temperature scaling against those obtained from convection-permitting climate model simulations. Temperature and precipitation projections are obtained from an ensemble of convection-permitting climate models (CPM), which are suitable to the task given their ability to explicitly represent deep convection and to resolve the mountainous topography. The CPM data provided by the CORDEX-FPS Convection project at 1-hour temporal and remapped to 3 km spatial resolution, cover historical and far-future (2090-2099) time periods under the extreme climate change scenario (RCP8.5). Due to the computational demands however, CPM simulations are still too short (typically 10-20 years) for analyzing extremes using conventional methods. We use a non-asymptotic statistical approach (the Metastatistical Extreme Value, MEVD, Marani and Ignaccolo, 2015) for the analysis of extremes from short time periods, such as the ones of CPM simulations. We use hourly precipitation and temperature data from 174 stations in an orographically complex area in northeastern Italy as a benchmark.In this study, we considered two temperatures approach for computing CC scaling: the mean annual temperature and the temperature during extreme events (top 20% of ordinary events). Our findings indicate that elevation significantly influences temperature changes during storms, with higher elevation areas experiencing more pronounced temperature increases in the future. This is further highlighted by seasonal shifts in storm occurrence, as we found storms moving from summer to fall in lowlands, suggesting a lower delta T for those storms. This same pattern was detected using the temperature during storms for CC scaling, showing that extremes are increasing more in higher elevations than in lowlands. We found this comparably captured by CC scaling approach, however, variations in return levels are also notable in CPMs when considering different return periods, as we find CPM changes depending on them, which contradicts the results from both CC scaling approaches. These findings identify that CC scaling agrees with CPM changes to some extend when the right temperature is selected, however, it emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of the scaling method's applicability under various conditions.
Space applications at the service of Food Security
Authors: Redigonda Gabriele , Bersegol Lucas , Francis James , Rochard Shadi , Corbett Laura
Published: July 2024

Food Security has become one of the highest political priorities at the national, regional, and international level, notably emphasised in the UN Secretary General's Common Agenda and most recent statements under the G7 umbrella.Climate change is a key determinant of current and future risks at stake for food security. The alteration of Essential Climate Variables undeniably affects and poses significant threats to natural ecosystems’ resilience. In turn, cascading effects are observed in various aspects of our societies as a whole, particularly in the realm of water and food security.Given the unique climate vulnerability in the Mediterranean region, a prioritized and elevated attention is required, directly undermining the need for intervention to address the humanitarian crisis stemming from food insecurity. The urgency of acting has been understood, along with recognizing that only a coordinated regional approach can be effective in tackling these issues towards a possible solution. Additionally, by leveraging shared expertise and best practices developed in food security-related fields, both Mediterranean countries and stakeholders around the world will have the opportunity to enhance their national response.The value of space-based solutions in addressing the underlying issues at stake contributing to food insecurity has already been acknowledged. This has been largely evidenced by the emergence of various initiatives, outlined in this paper, directly tackling food security challenges using space data. However, despite these on-going efforts, the full potential of space-based solutions has yet to be fully realized, hence expanding beyond current untapped capabilities and their impact. Thus, several activities could be undertaken to optimize the use of space data and derived information to overcome both current and foreseen food security challenges.Unleashing this potential requires concreate actions at all levels, and with a multidisciplinary approach. In particular, policy and regulatory measures play a central role in this regard, as demonstrated based on an initial analysis of the status of affairs, complemented by a broad consultation campaign involving both policymakers and decision-makers from Mediterranean countries, as well as relevant international organisations such as FAO, WFP, IFAD.
How much snow is there across the Mediterranean region?
Authors: Avanzi Francesco , Lievens Hans , Massari Christian , Alfieri Lorenzo , Delogu Fabio , Campo Lorenzo , Libertino Andrea , Filippucci Paolo , Mosaffa Hamidreza , Quintana-Seguí Pere , Gabellani Simone , De Lannoy Gabrielle
Published: July 2024

The seasonal snowpack plays an important role for the water budget of the Mediterranean Sea, but an exact quantification of this contribution is still elusive. This is particularly true if one compares this preliminary understanding with previous work in other semi-arid regions of the world like the western US, where both the scientific community and importantly the water-resources management sector have already achieved consensus estimates on this matter, with snow supplying 30% to 80% of annual runoff. In order to provide such figures for the Mediterranean-Sea region, we developed a 6-year (2015-2021) reanalysis of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) at approximately 1 km resolution and daily granularity for the whole basin of the Mediterranean Sea (Nile excluded). The reanalysis uses ERA5 meteorological data and satellite-based precipitation as input for a snow model, S3M, which then assimilates daily snapshots of snow depth from the C-SNOW Sentinel-1 product. These simulations were validated using in-situ snow depth measurements across the Mediterranean-Sea region. Maps of snow water equivalent from this reanalysis were spatially aggregated to provide a preliminary estimate of central tendencies and standard deviations of SWE for the Mediterranean Sea, as well as an estimate of peak-SWE and snowmelt timing. These estimates demonstrate the added value of remote-sensing products to tackle societally relevant questions in the 21st century.
Attribution of the destructive Mediterranean derecho in 2022 to anthropogenic warming
Authors: González-Alemán Juan Jesus , Insua-Costa Damián , Bazile Eric , González-Herrero Sergi , Miglietta Mario Marcello , Groenemeijer Pieter , Donat Markus G.
Published: July 2024

An extremely intense and organized convective storm, classified as a “derecho”, developed over the western Mediterranean Sea on August 18, 2022. The system affected Corsica, northern Italy, and Austria, with wind gusts up to 62 m/s and giant hailstones (diameter of around 11 cm), being responsible for 12 fatalities and 106 injured people.
The derecho developed over an extreme and persisting marine heatwave over the western Mediterranean. Therefore, the hypothesis of a relationship between the atmospheric event and the marine heatwave rapidly arose, suggesting a possible link with anthropogenic climate change.
By performing model simulations with both the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) and the nonhydrostatic operational AROME model and using the pseudo-global warming approach, we find a relationship between the marine heatwave, the actual anthropogenic climate change conditions, and the development of this extremely rare and severe convective event. These results suggest the increase of probability of development of similar events with respect to the past associated to climate change, and illustrate how climate change effects can cascade through a chain of extreme weather and climate events.
 
Exploring historical gully dynamics in an agricultural setting in Mediterranean climate
Authors: Olivier George , Van De Wiel Marco , Dieppois Bastien , de Clercq Willem
Published: July 2024

Gully erosion is a significant degradation process affecting land (on-site effects) and water resources (off-site effects) in regions exhibiting a Mediterranean climate. Climate change projections suggest lower mean annual rainfall and higher intensity rainfall events, which could amplify gully erosion processes during the 21st century. Analysing gully erosion over extended periods is essential to understanding better and predicting future gully perturbations and degradation. However, few studies monitor gully evolution on such temporal scales. We analyse long-term (1938-2023) gully morpho-dynamics in a Mediterranean catchment to estimate the impact of climate and land use drivers thereon.
The Sandspruit catchment in the Western Cape of South Africa exhibits a distinct Mediterranean climate. Natural vegetation is sparse, interspersed only between extensive agricultural fields mainly used for dryland agriculture. Four gully networks were analysed using aerial imagery and climate data. Gully changes and land use activities were mapped from the sequential aerial imagery. Climatic variability during the study period was assessed in terms of mean annual rainfall, rainfall intensity derivatives, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation cycles (ENSO) to identify significant trends and association with gully evolution.
Preliminary results show that human activity is the primary influence on gully evolution. Agricultural intensification increased erosion up to 1938, whereafter mitigation efforts reduced gully sizes up to five times in 29 years. In subsequent years, contraction and expansion were observed. However, contemporary gully erosion since 1999 shows active growth. The increase in activity could be due to a reduction in the efficiency of the ageing mitigation measures but may also be caused by a changing climate. Rainy Day Normal, a rainfall intensity proxy based on mean annual rainfall, shows no distinct trend. However, ENSO cycles coupled with the timing of high-intensity events may play a critical role.
Characterization of cold waves in the eastern Iberian Peninsula for a 70-year period (1947-2016)
Authors: Revert Adrià , Estrela María José , Corell David , Miró Javier
Published: July 2024

The accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is causing a generalized increase in temperatures. The Mediterranean basin is one of the most affected places on the planet, with effects such as an increase in maximum and minimum temperatures, among others, having been described in the scientific literature. However, in spite of this generalized thermal increase, the Mediterranean region still registers episodes of intense cold, some of them of great intensity and which give rise to episodes of cold waves. That is why the main objective of this work is to analyze the evolution of cold waves in the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula, specifically in the province of Alicante, an area of great tourist activity and, therefore, of great economic importance in the country. The study covers a period of 70 years (1947-2016) and uses surface temperature data from a dense network of 92 meteorological observatories, which have been previously subjected to a filling and homogenization process. In turn, it uses the HYSPLIT model to analyze the origin of the identified cold waves. The most relevant results are: (1) A total of 93 cold waves have been registered during the 70 years of study; (2) The most recent decade (2007-2016) has been the one with the largest number of cold waves; (3) The annual number of days with cold wave has been decreasing over time, as well as the duration of cold waves, which are now shorter; (4) February and January are, in this order, the months with the largest number of cold waves, which also occur, to a lesser extent, in December, March and November; (5) In recent decades, cold waves have affected a greater surface area, although it has not been observed that they have been colder; (6) The most frequent cold waves have a maritime origin, while those of continental origin are the ones that cause the greatest impact in terms of surface area. It is important to accurately characterize the cold waves in our territory and to deepen our knowledge of them, so that we can adopt adaptation measures in the context of a climate change scenario. This work serves as a starting point for a study that characterizes cold waves in the entire Mediterranean region of the Iberian Peninsula.
The study had the financial support of the projects Tool4Extreme PID2020-118797RBI00 funded by MCIN/AEI/10.13039/501100011033 and PROMETEO/2021/016 funded by Generalitat Valenciana.
Estimating future burnt area changes over Greece using the JULES-INFERNO model
Authors: Rovithakis Anastasios , Voulgarakis Apostolos , Burke Eleanor , Burton Chantelle , Kasoar Matthew , Grillakis Manolis , Seiradakis Konstantinos
Published: July 2024

Our previous studies have shown that climatic conditions in the Mediterranean and specifically over Greece are expected to change, resulting in an increase in fire season length which implies increases in burnt area. Our research employs the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES) to investigate the repercussions of climate change and future land use land cover (LULC) on future burnt area using UKESM1-0-LL gridded data from the ISIMIP3b model run. In the present study, the modelled burnt area is validated against satellite observations from Copernicus. We use two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) consisting of an optimistic emissions scenario where emissions peak and decline beyond 2020 (RCP2.6) and a pessimistic scenario, in terms of mitigation where emissions continue to rise throughout the century (RCP8.5). Our results show increased burnt area in the distant future compared to the present period in response to higher future availability of heat resistant needle leaf trees.
Impacts of extreme storm and flood events on coastal areas: Data from recent disasters in the Eastern Mediterranean region.
Authors: Diakakis Michalis , Gogou Marilia , Filis Christos , Mavroulis Spyridon , Sarantopoulou Andromachi , Kapris Ioannis , Vassilakis Emmanuel , Katsetsiadou Katerina-Navsika , Kotsi Evelina , Spyrou Nafsika , Konsolaki Aliki , Stamati Eleftheria , Lekkas Efthymis
Published: July 2024

The projected increase in frequency of flood extremes, attributed to climate change, poses a significant threat to coastal regions throughout the Mediterranean. Consequences encompass extensive geomorphological changes, infrastructural degradation, property damage, pollution of the aquatic environment, and other adverse socio-economic impacts, also threating the blue economy—a vital economic driver of the region. Acknowledging the pivotal role of coastal areas as critical nodes for both economic activities and ecologically valuable natural landscapes, it becomes imperative to deepen our understanding of the mechanisms and extents to which extreme flood events can impact these vulnerable coastal zones.This work focuses on exploring the impacts on the coastline of recent extreme storm events in the Eastern Mediterranean. The study aims to explore and classify the typology of effects, the severity of impacts and examine their spatial distribution as means to contribute to an improved understanding of extreme storm and flooding consequences in the region.
Evaluating the frequency of high-mortality flash floods in the Eastern Mediterranean region
Authors: Diakakis Michalis , Papagiannaki Katerina , Fouskaris Meletis
Published: July 2024

Despite advancements in flood risk mitigation, many regions globally still experience severe flood disasters leading to significant loss of life. Estimating the frequency of such catastrophic events is challenging, particularly in areas with limited disaster and instrumental records. Nevertheless, accurate frequency estimates are crucial for preparedness and civil protection, especially in the context of climate change and the projected increase of such events. This study presents a comprehensive database of high-mortality floods in the Eastern Mediterranean from 1882 to 2021, enabling a detailed analysis of the deadliest events and their seasonal, temporal, and spatial characteristics. The database identifies 132 flood events (causing 10 or more fatalities), occurring on average every 1.56 years. While less frequent, high-magnitude events (above the 85th percentile) were observed to have a return period of 9.1 years in the region. The analysis indicates an increase in high-mortality flood events in recent decades and highlights distinct seasonal and spatial patterns. The findings provide a basis for an improved understanding of catastrophic flood occurrences in the region and specifically on how common such events can be. Additionally, this research represents a significant step towards comprehensively understanding historical trends in extreme floods and their potential future trajectories.
Submicron aerosol pollution in Greater Cairo (Egypt): A new type of urban haze?
Authors: Christodoulou Aliki , Bezantakos Spyros , Bourtsoukidis Efstratios , Stavroulas Iasonas , Afif Charbel , Borbon Agnes , Vrekoussis Mihalis , Mihalopoulos Nikos , Sauvage Stéphane , Sciare Jean ,   POLCAIR Team and Partners
Published: July 2024

Greater Cairo, the most populous megacity in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region, faces severe aerosol pollution, posing a significant threat to public health. Despite its impact, the main sources of pollution remain under-characterized due to sparse atmospheric observations. To address this gap, we conducted a continuous two-month field study at an urban background site, documenting the first chemical and physical properties of submicron aerosols (PM1). We found that crustal material from both desert dust and traffic dust resuspension accounted for as much as 24% of the total PM1 mass, increasing to 66% during desert dust events—a level unusually high for urban settings. Simultaneously, our data indicated reductions in black carbon and ammonium sulfate levels, suggesting successful emission reductions through local and regional mitigation efforts. The diurnal patterns of carbonaceous aerosols were linked to peak emissions from local traffic during rush hours and from open biomass burning at night. Contrarily, our analysis identified unexpectedly high levels of semi-volatile ammonium chloride (NH4Cl) from local open biomass and waste burning, emerging as the predominant PM1 chemical species in Cairo. Its formation at night significantly influenced morning aerosol water uptake, thereby playing a crucial role in the formation of persistent urban haze. These findings not only confirm the ongoing presence of a significant dust reservoir over Cairo but also reveal a new source of highly hygroscopic semi-volatile inorganic salts, leading to a unique type of urban haze. This haze, characterized by major contributions from both submicron and supermicron particle modes, highlights the complex implications of heterogeneous chemical transformations of air pollutants in urban settings, emphasizing the need for interdisciplinary research to understand and mitigate these impacts in the Mediterranean and similar regions. Full details are available in our publication in Christodoulou et al., 2024.Christodoulou, A., Bezantakos, S., Bourtsoukidis, E., Stavroulas, I., Pikridas, M., Oikonomou, K., Iakovides, M., Hassan, S. K., Boraiy, M., El-Nazer, M., Wheida, A., Abdelwahab, M., Sarda-Estève, R., Rigler, M., Biskos, G., Afif, C., Borbon, A., Vrekoussis, M., Mihalopoulos, N., Sauvage, S., and Sciare, J.: Submicron aerosol pollution in Greater Cairo (Egypt): A new type of urban haze?, Environ. Int., 186, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2024.108610, 2024.
Future projections of photovoltaic power generation potential change in Greece based on high-resolution EURO-CORDEX RCM simulations
Authors: Georgoulias Aristeidis K. , Akritidis Dimitris , Kalisoras Alkiviadis , Melas Dimitris , Zanis Prodromos
Published: July 2024

Here, we assess the projected changes of the photovoltaic power generation potential (PVpot) in Greece for the 21st century. Our analysis is based on an ensemble of high-resolution Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations from the EURO-CORDEX initiative following three different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), namely, RCP2.6 (strong mitigation), RCP4.5 (moderate mitigation), and RCP8.5 (no further mitigation). The spatial patterns of the PVpot changes in the near future (2021-2050) and the end of the century (2071-2100) relative to 1971-2000 are presented along with their statistical robustness. In addition, timeseries and boxplots with the projected changes are presented. Finally, the isolation of the effect of specific climatic variables (e.g., surface temperature and wind speed) on the projected PVpot changes is also examined and the importance of PV energy production for the country is discussed.This research was funded by the project "Support for Enhancing the Operation of the National Network for Climate Change (CLIMPACT)", National Development Program, General Secretariat of Research and Innovation, Greece (2023ΝA11900001 - Ν. 5201588).
Space-time characterization of fire-related air pollutants over Portugal.
Authors: Durao Rita , Gouveia Célia , Simões Madalena , Brito André , Russo Ana
Published: July 2024

Air pollution has significant and severe impacts on human health, the environment, materials, and the economy, emerging as a key issue for microclimate and air quality regulation. Hence, the spatial and temporal characterization of air pollutants and their relationship with meteorological constraining factors is of utmost importance, particularly under a climate change perspective. Air pollutants’ spatial and temporal characterization over the Iberian Peninsula is performed, focusing particularly on the emissions of Particulate Matter (PM) and Carbon Monoxide (CM) during wildfire events in 2012-2023. This will be performed based on the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring (CAMS) data, to profit from the added value of having reliable and gridded information on the atmosphere composition and its related processes, anywhere in the world. After a preliminary analysis, air quality (AQ) forecasts are produced to model AQ environmental emergencies. The rationale is to develop a methodology to forecast air pollutants' exceedances, without being limited to areas closer to monitoring AQ stations. To achieve this goal, Machine Learning (ML) methods are applied to find the most efficient model architecture predicting pollutants’ concentration a few days ahead.Space-time patterns reveal a good agreement between CAMS data and extreme fire events, with this agreement being clearer for maximum concentrations measured by CAMS pollutants such as CO, PM10, and PM2.5, as well as the exceedances of pollutant thresholds during fire activity periods, over affected regions. ML models reveal coefficient of determination (R) values ranging from 0.76 to 0.85 for their forecasts, revealing high accuracy in predicting PM10 exceedances, with precision levels up to 0.91.Model results reveal the potential to develop an air quality tool over regions less covered by the national air quality monitoring network.Acknowledgements: This study is partially supported by the Portuguese Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (FCT) I.P./MCTES on behalf of DHEFEUS -2022.09185.PTDC and the project FAIR- 2022.01660.PTDC).
Investigating the Interplay Between Mediterranean Wildfires and Compound Extreme Events Over Land and Adjacent Oceans
Authors: Santos Raquel , Russo Ana , Gouveia Célia
Published: July 2024

Climate change has emerged as a global concern in the current century, marked by an increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of extreme events. Heatwaves have been rising in recent decades in the Mediterranean region, with notable impacts on ecosystems, human health, and essential resources, affecting both atmospheric and marine environments. These warmer conditions, often coupled with extended periods of dryness, have particularly impacted southern European Mediterranean countries, which are highly vulnerable to climate change.This work aims to investigate the interplay between atmospheric heatwaves and drought conditions in Southern Europe and marine heatwaves in the East Atlantic and Mediterranean Sea, from 2001 to 2022. The study also examines how individual and combined dry and hot conditions are linked to wildfire occurrence and extent.Positive correlations between air and sea temperatures and negative correlations between air temperature and precipitation values were identified. The analysis also reveals that severe wildfires are mostly associated with reduced precipitation and/or elevated air temperatures during the summer season, revealing a close relationship with intensified sea surface temperatures. Moreover, marine heatwaves are more common in months when burned areas do not exceed the 80th percentile, while drier conditions over land predominate when burned areas are above this threshold. Months with increased fire coverage are strongly associated with extreme climatic conditions, indicating a prevalent occurrence of compound extreme events.This study demonstrates the potential of considering both land-based atmospheric and marine conditions when exploring compound extremes, which might be crucial to ensure effective preparedness and mitigate the risks of climatic disasters that keep threatening the ecosystem stability, particularly wildfires. This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research project FirEUrisk, with the Grant Agreement no. 101003890 and by national funds through FCT I.P./MCTES (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia) (PIDDAC) – c - IDL and by https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.09185.PTDC (DHEFEUS). AR acknowledges FCT for https://doi.org/10.54499/2022.01167.CEECIND/CP1722/CT0006 (Complex).
The Release of Lipolytic Hormones during Various High-Intensity Interval and Moderate-Intensity Continuous Training Regimens and Their Effects on Fat Loss
Authors: Zhu Xiangui , Jiao Jiao , Liu Yu , Li Hong , Zhang Haifeng
Published: July 2024

To investigate the release of lipolytic hormones during various high-intensity interval training (HIIT) and moderate-intensity continuous training (MICT), and their effects on fat loss. 39 young women categorized as obese (with a body fat percentage (BFP) ≥30%) were randomly allocated to one of the following groups: all-out sprint interval training (SIT, n =10); supramaximal HIIT (HIIT120, 120%V̇O2peak, n = 10); HIIT (HIIT90, 90%V̇O2peak, n = 10), or MICT, (60%V̇O2peak, n = 9) for a twelve-week observation period consisting of 3 to 4 exercise sessions per week. Serum epinephrine (EPI) and growth hormone (GH) were measured during the 1st, 20th, and 44th training sessions. Body weight (BW), body mass index (BMI), whole-body fat mass (FM) and BFP were assessed pre- and post-intervention. Following the 1st and 20th sessions, significant increases in EPI (p < 0.05) were observed post-exercise in HIIT120 and HIIT90, but not in SIT and MICT. In the 44th session, the increased EPI was found in SIT, HIIT120, and HIIT90, but not in MICT (p < 0.05). For the GH, a significant increase was observed post-exercise in all groups in the three sessions. The increased EPI and GH returned to baselines 3 hours post-exercise. After the 12-week intervention, significant reductions in FM and BFP were found in all groups, while reductions in BW and BMI were only found in the SIT and HIIT groups. Greater reductions in FM and BFP, in comparison to MICT, were observed in the SIT and HIIT groups (p < 0.05). 12-week SIT, HIIT120, and HIIT90, in comparison to MICT, were more efficacious in fat reduction in obese women, partly benefiting from the greater release of lipolytic hormones during training sessions.
Orthodontic Management of Unilateral Impacted Mandibular Canine - A Case Report
Authors: Mani Shubhangi , Dr. Ravindra Manerikar Ret. Col. , Devadiga Deeksha
Published: July 2024

While the prevalence of impacted maxillary canines is 0.9–2.2%, but mandibular canine impaction occurs less frequently. Failing to monitor and promptly address impacted canines may lead to various complications, including the displacement of nearby teeth, loss of vitality in neighboring teeth, dental arch shortening, follicular cysts, canine ankylosis, recurring infections, recurring pain, internal resorption of the canine and adjacent teeth, external resorption of the canine and adjacent teeth, or a combination of these issues. To prevent such undesirable effects, it is crucial to make a timely and accurate diagnosis, conduct precise predictive analysis, and intervene early. The present case report discusses the diagnosis and treatment plan of a 16-year-old female presenting with an impacted canine on her mandibular right side.

Key words: canine impaction, unilateral, lower arch, surgical exposure, closed eruption technique
PENGARUH POLA ASUH ORANG TUA TERHADAP PERILAKU SOSIAL ANAK USIA DINI
Authors: Nabila Thifallya Regina  , Eva Nuriyah Hidayat
Published: July 2024

Pola asuh merupakan tindakan atau perilaku orang tua yang berperan penting dalam membentuk kepribadian anak, di mana pola asuh yang positif dapat membantu anak tumbuh menjadi individu yang sehat dan mandiri. Anak usia dini didefinisikan sebagai anak yang berusia 0 sampai dengan 8 tahun yang berada dalam tahap pertumbuhan dan perkembangan fisik dan mental. Masa kanak-kanak juga merupakan masa di mana anak-anak belum dapat sepenuhnya menyadari potensi yang dimilikinya. Oleh karena itu, diperlukan upaya pola asuh pendidikan untuk mengoptimalkan semua unsur pertumbuhan, baik perkembangan fisik maupun psikis. Tujuan dari adanya penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui apakah pola asuh orang tua dapat mempengaruhi perilaku sosial pada anak usia dini dan agar orang tua dapat mengetahui serta dapat memilih, juga menerapkan pola asuh terhadap anaknya agar anak dapat berkembang secara optimal sesuai dengan tahap perkembangannya. Metode penelitian yang digunakan pada penelitian ini adalah studi kepustakaan yang diharapkan dapat menjadi pengetahuan dan pemahaman kepada orang tua bahwa peran keluarga merupakan hal utama dalam menerapkan pola asuh yang tepat bagi anak-anaknya, serta memberikan pemahaman mengenai berbagai jenis pola asuh yang ada di masyarakat untuk membangun karakter anak. Dari penelitian yang telah dilakukan dapat diketahui bahwa orang tua memiliki peran penting dalam pembentukan karakter anak dalam bersosialisasi dengan lingkungannya. Orang tua perlu memahami pola asuh yang baik dan benar agar perilaku sosial anak akan terbentuk, sehingga anak dapat mengklasifikasikan diri mereka dengan baik saat bersosialisasi di lingkungan masyarakat.
PERAN TENAGA PENDIDIK TAMAN PENITIPAN ANAK (TPA) DALAM PENGASUHAN ANAK (Studi Pada Tenaga Pendidik TPA Gading Preschool Di Kota Kendari)
Authors: Wa Ode Uswatun Hasanah  , Tanzil  , Sarmadan
Published: July 2024

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dan menjelaskan peran guru dalam menjaga anak di taman penitipan anak (TPA) gading preschool di kota Kendari. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga menyelidiki dan menjelaskan tantangan yang dihadapi oleh guru di TPA gading preschool tersebut. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kualitatif. Tujuannya adalah untuk mendapatkan pemahaman yang luas dan mendalam tentang fenomena yang dialami subjek penelitian, seperti perilaku, persepsi, motivasi, tindakan, dll., dengan menggunakan berbagai pendekatan alamiah. Hasil penelitian menunjukan peran seorang pengasuh daycare sangat penting dalam perkembangan dan pembentukan karakter anak-anak. Sebagian besar pengasuh daycare mempunyai kedekatan emosional dengan anak-anak yang mereka rawat. Tenaga pengasuh di TPA gading preschool selalu berusaha dalam membimbing anak agar dapat menjadi lebih baik, mengajarkan anak agar memahami keberagaman potensi anak,  menjadi perantara dalam proses perkembangan dan belajar anak, memberikan dorongan kepada anak agar lebih semangat dalam berlajar, Dan dalam pengasuh di TPA gading preschool memiliki salah satu kendala yang sering dialami para  tenaga pendidik adalah sulitnya menjaga konsentrasi dan motivasi belajar anak kurangnya kerja sama anatara pihak pengasuh dan orang tua anak dan fasilitas TPA  yang kurang memadai,  tenaga pendidik sulit menjaga konsentrasi dan motivasi belajar anak, anak-anak cenderung mudah bosan sehingga fokus mereka gampang sekli teralihkan.
Assessment of Anxiolytic Therapy efficiency in helping hypertension control in hypertensive crises in Rajaiee hospital patients, Karaj, 2020: A Randomized Clinical Trial
Authors: Maghsoudi Mohammad Reza , khademhosseini Peyman , Talesh Zabihollah , Bahramian Mehran
Published: July 2024

Introduction: The most common emergency of high blood pressure is a sudden increase in blood pressure despite continuing the prescribed treatments, in patients with a history of primary chronic blood pressure. The purpose of the present study investigate the effectiveness of anti-anxiety treatment in helping to control hypertension in hypertensive crises patients referred to Shahid Rajaei Hospital of Karaj in 2020. Materials and Methods: The present study is a randomized clinical trial. The study subjects included patients with hypertensive crisis who referred to Shahid Rajaei Medical and Teaching Center in Karaj in 2020. The information was collected using researcher-made questionnaires, Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS), and the same device and operator for each patient. The patients were randomly divided into two groups (received Lorazepam 1mg and Olanzapine 2mg orally) and (did not receive anti-anxiety medication). The systolic, diastolic and heart rate of the patients during their stay in the hospital were evaluated in all patients with high blood pressure according to the monitoring standard of these symptoms, and in the patients of the anti-anxiety drug group, at the beginning of anti-anxiety drug administration and then 40 minutes after the prescription of anti-anxiety medication was also measured. After being discharged from the emergency room and taking the oral antihypertensive and anti-anxiety diet of their own group, the patients were called for re-evaluation one week and three weeks later. Results: In this study, 120 patients including 59 women and 61 men, with an average age of 52.24 years, were investigated. The results showed that the reduction of systolic and diastolic pressure is statistically significant compared to cases of not using anti-anxiety medication (P˂0.05). However, in the follow-up i.e. 1 week and 3 weeks later, no significant difference was observed (P˃0.05). Conclusion: The results of the present study showed that the evaluation of patients with hypertensive crisis in terms of anxiety disorder with an appropriate scale and the prescription of anti-anxiety drugs in patients with indicators of anxiety disorders during a hypertensive crisis help to improve and accelerate blood pressure control in the emergency room. It is suggested that more studies be designed with a longer duration and larger sample size in the future.
Pharmacoeconomic Evaluation of Conservative and Interventional Management in patients with Coronary Artery Disease: Real World Data
Authors: Karunanithi Krupanidhi , J Aditya. , M Angaleshwari. , Joseph Anna , Nirojini P. Sharmila
Published: July 2024

Objectives: The study tackles evaluating and comparing the cost-effectiveness of Conservative and Interventional Management in patients with CAD from the payer’s perspective concerning real-world data. Methodology: The pharmacoeconomic analysis consisted of an ICER calculation quadrant and a decision tree that reflected the most economically advantageous course of treatment, whether it be conservative or interventional. The costs for the interventional and conservative therapy were taken from The Government of Tamil Nadu, the Chief Minister's Comprehensive Health Insurance Scheme, and the Pharmacy of the multispecialty hospital, and the SF-36 Questionnaire was used to measure patients' health-related quality of life. Result: 126 patients were included. The SF-36 score 1 and 3 QoL comparison between conservative and interventional management had a high level of significance (p values = 0.00349 and 0.0035, respectively). When comparing the costs of conservative and interventional management, the results were extremely significant (p-value 0.001). For patients receiving interventional management, the average medical expense is higher (Rs 1, 41, 784 vs. Rs 38, 388). Patients with CAD receiving conservative therapy had an average HRQol score that was higher (52.32 vs. 39.64). The overall ICER of conservative versus interventional management in terms of life years saved was Rs 8,154. Conclusion: CAD patients receiving Interventional management has higher average medical cost than conservative management. CAD patients receiving conservative management had a higher average HRQol. ICER of conservative versus interventional management in all age groups was Rs 8,154/life years saved. Conservative management was more Cost- Effective than interventional.
Quality by Design (QbD) based Formulation Optimization of Artemether Loaded Mucoadhesive Nanoemulsion for Intranasal Delivery
Authors: Rani Sushma , Gupta Manu , Bhatt Dinesh Chandra , Ahalwat Shaveta
Published: July 2024

Artemether is a first choice of drug used in the treatment of cerebral malaria and often used in combination.The objective of this work was to precisely design a nanoemulsion formulation for controlled release effect. The brain uptake of the drugcan be increased throughintranasal drug delivery and enhances the bioavailability by preventing the hepatic first-pass metabolism. Oleic acid was used as an oily phase as the drug exhibited maximum solubility in it.The tween 80, propylene glycol 400 were finalizedas surfactants and co-surfactants respectively based on the miscibility study. The optimization was carried out for various dependent and independent variables using Design Expert software. The optimized formulation was evaluated by various evaluation parameters. The polydispersity index (PDI) and zeta potential (ZP) were determined as 0.484±0.026 and +21±1.44mV respectively. The optimized formulation consisted of entrapment efficiency of 91.5%, globule size of 14.49nm, viscosity of 29cPas, and pH of 6.4. It showed a drug release of 93.17% in 24 hours representing the controlled drug release effect as it showed greatest R2 value for Korsmeyer-Peppas (R2 = 0.998) model. A controlled release nano emulsion formulation was successfully formulated thatcould be a smart way for effective intranasal delivery of artemether to enhance the bioavailability by avoiding the hepatic first-pass metabolism.
Evaluating the Immunomodulatory and Detoxifying role of Tinospora cordifolia and Solanum nigrum in the treatment of Colorectal Cancer
Authors: Patel Alkeshkumar , Vora Hemangini , Jain Neeraj , Nandpal Manish , Panjvani Sahil , Patel Samir
Published: July 2024

Background: Colorectal Cancer may occur due to environmental pollutants like polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and hydrazines. These are indirect carcinogens and initiate carcinogenesis after their metabolic transformation within the body. This causes more than 0.94 million deaths every year. Methods: We investigated the prophylactic intervention of hydroalcoholic extract of Tinospora cordifoilia stems and aqueous extract Solanum nigrum leaves in 1, 2 dimethyl hydrazine induced colorectal cancer in Sprague Dawley rats. The chemopreventive potential was observed at low and high doses for 27- and 32-weeks duration. The chemopreventive potential of natural products was evaluated by estimating the change in body weight, diarrhoea, hematological parameters, change in cytokines level, cancer stem cells marker ALDH1,T lymphocyte subpopulation estimation by flow cytometry, confirmation of adenoma, adenocarcinoma and liver metastasis based on histology. Results: The high dose of the test drug showed a significant difference (p<0.05) compared to disease control groups animals with respect to blood and tissue-based parameters. The high-performance liquid chromatography analysis of herbal extract showed the presence of berberine, tinosporide, quercetin,ellagic acid and naringenin in natural products. Probable mechanisms involved downregulating mRNA of nuclear factor kappa B, matrix metalloproteinases-9, tumor necrosis factor-α, interleukin-6 and cyclooxygenase-2 while promoting proapoptotic caspases, antioxidant capacity, interleukin-12. Conclusion: The high dose of the test drug has chemopreventive and detoxifying potential against carcinogen induced colorectal cancer in animal model.
Review of approaches to determining the essence of labor mobility
Authors: Toshpulotov Alisher , Surina Elena , Matveeva Inna , Marikyan Ekaterina
Published: July 2024

Labor mobility is an integral characteristic of the current level of development of the market economy, performs important functions of redistributing labor and overcoming differences in its lifestyle. At the same time, labor mobility, manifested in the form of labor migration, is a manifestation of the realization of economic, social and other ties between countries. The process of forming an open economy involves the free movement of capital, goods, technology, information and labor. In modern Russia, labor mobility is largely related to the peculiarities of the socio-economic situation, characterized by a surge in migration processes, the rupture of economic ties, and their reorientation to create a new economic space. At the same time, digitalization coverage of almost all sectors of the economy plays an increasing role, having a significant impact on the formation of the labor market, which has a distinct regional specificity. As a result of the socio-economic transformations taking place in society, there is a territorial differentiation of the labor force, official and hidden unemployment of the able-bodied population, an increase in the scale of nonstandard employment of the population, its mobility, which often has an unregulated character, and all this exacerbates the problem of the region’s availability of labor resources. Constant movement – labor mobility, which manifests itself in territorial and sectoral, professional and qualification sections, characterizes the labor force. The availability of a sufficient number of labor resources of the required quality composition, their rational use have a huge impact on the effectiveness of organizations. At the same time, labor mobility as a socio-economic factor affecting the labor resources of the region and individual enterprises and organizations is among the least studied in the context of the digitalization of the economy, which determined the relevance of the research topic.
The article examines the main approaches to determining the essence of labor mobility.