bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Non-complemented Spaces of Operators, Vector Measures, andco
Authors: Lewis Paul , Schulle Polly
Published: May 2011

The Banach spacesL(X,Y),K(X,Y),Lw*(X*,Y), andKw*(X*,Y) are studied to determine when they contain the classical Banach spacescoor ℓ∞. The complementation of the Banach spaceK(X,Y) inL(X,Y) is discussed as well as what impact this complementation has on the embedding ofcoor ℓ∞inK(X,Y) orL(X,Y). Results of Kalton, Feder, and Emmanuele concerning the complementation ofK(X,Y) inL(X,Y) are generalized. Results concerning the complementation of the Banach spaceKw*(X*,Y) inLw*(X*,Y) are also explored as well as how that complementation affects the embedding ofcoor ℓ∞inKw*(X*,Y) orLw*(X*,Y). The ℓpspaces for 1 =p< ∞ are studied to determine when the space of compact operators from one ℓpspace to another containsco. The paper contains a new result which classifies these spaces of operators. A new result using vector measures is given to provide more efficient proofs of theorems by Kalton, Feder, Emmanuele, Emmanuele and John, and Bator and Lewis.
Heterogeneous freezing of water droplets containing kaolinite particles
Authors: Murray B. J. , Broadley S. L. , Wilson T. W. , Atkinson J. D. , Wills R. H.
Published: May 2011

Abstract. Clouds composed of both ice particles and supercooled liquid water droplets exist at temperatures above ~236 K. These mixed phase clouds, which strongly impact climate, are very sensitive to the presence of solid particles that can catalyse freezing. In this paper we describe experiments to determine the conditions at which the clay mineral kaolinite nucleates ice when immersed within water droplets. These are the first immersion mode experiments in which the ice nucleating ability of kaolinite has been determined as a function of clay surface area, cooling rate and also at constant temperatures. Water droplets containing a known amount of clay mineral were supported on a hydrophobic surface and cooled at rates of between 0.8 and 10 K min−1 or held at constant sub-zero temperatures. The time and temperature at which individual 10–50 μm diameter droplets froze were determined by optical microscopy. For a cooling rate of 10 K min−1, the median nucleation temperature of 10–40 μm diameter droplets increased from close to the homogeneous nucleation limit (236 K) to 240.8 ± 0.6 K as the concentration of kaolinite in the droplets was increased from 0.005 wt% to 1 wt%. This data shows that the probability of freezing scales with surface area of the kaolinite inclusions. We also show that at a constant temperature the number of liquid droplets decreases exponentially as they freeze over time. The constant cooling rate experiments are consistent with the stochastic, singular and modified singular descriptions of heterogeneous nucleation; however, freezing during cooling and at constant temperature can be reconciled best with the stochastic approach. We report temperature dependent nucleation rate coefficients (nucleation events per unit time per unit area) for kaolinite and present a general parameterisation for immersion nucleation which may be suitable for cloud modelling once nucleation by other important ice nucleating species is quantified in the future.
Crop evapotranspiration estimation using remote sensing and the existing network of meteorological stations in Cyprus
Authors: Papadavid G. , Hadjimitsis D. , Michaelides S. , Nisantzi A.
Published: May 2011

Abstract. Cyprus is frequently confronted with severe droughts and the need for accurate and systematic data on crop evapotranspiration (ETc) is essential for decision making, regarding water irrigation management and scheduling. The aim of this paper is to highlight how data from meteorological stations in Cyprus can be used for monitoring and determining the country's irrigation demands. This paper shows how daily ETc can be estimated using FAO Penman-Monteith method adapted to satellite data and auxiliary meteorological parameters. This method is widely used in many countries for estimating crop evapotranspiration using auxiliary meteorological data (maximum and minimum temperatures, relative humidity, wind speed) as inputs. Two case studies were selected in order to determine evapotranspiration using meteorological and low resolution satellite data (MODIS – TERRA) and to compare it with the results of the reference method (FAO-56) which estimates the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) by using only meteorological data. The first approach corresponds to the FAO Penman-Monteith method adapted for using both meteorological and remotely sensed data. Furthermore, main automatic meteorological stations in Cyprus were mapped using Geographical Information System (GIS). All the agricultural areas of the island were categorized according to the nearest meteorological station which is considered as "representative" of the area. Thiessen polygons methodology was used for this purpose. The intended goal was to illustrate what can happen to a crop, in terms of water requirements, if meteorological data are retrieved from other than the representative stations. The use of inaccurate data can result in low yields or excessive irrigation which both lead to profit reduction. The results have shown that if inappropriate meteorological data are utilized, then deviations from correct ETc might be obtained, leading to water losses or crop water stress.
3-D mesoscale MHD simulations of a cusp-like magnetic configuration: method and first results
Authors: Adamson E. , Otto A. , Nykyri K.
Published: May 2011

Abstract. We present a local mesoscale model of the magnetospheric cusp region with high resolution (up to 300 km). We discuss the construction and implementation of the initial configuration and give a detailed description of the numerical simulation. An overview of simulation results for the case of strongly northward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) is then presented and compared with data from Cluster 2 spacecraft from 14 February 2003. Results show a cusp diamagnetic cavity (CDC) with depth normal to the magnetospheric boundary on the order of 1–2 RE and a much larger extent of ~5–9 RE tangential to the boundary, bounded by a gradual inner boundary with the magnetospheric lobe and a more distinct exterior boundary with the magnetosheath. These results are qualitatively consistent with observational data.
Response of δ13C in plant and soil respiration to a water pulse
Authors: Salmon Y. , Buchmann N. , Barnard R. L.
Published: May 2011

Abstract. Stable carbon isotopes have been used to assess the coupling between changes in environmental conditions and the response of soil or ecosystem respiration, usually by studying the time-lagged response of δ13C of respired CO2 (δ13CR) to changes in photosynthetic carbon isotope discrimination (Δi). However, the lack of a systematic response of δ13CR to environmental changes in field studies stresses the need to better understand the mechanisms to this response. We experimentally created a wide range of carbon allocation and respiration conditions in Fagus sylvatica mesocosms, by growing saplings under different temperatures and girdling combinations. After a period of drought, a water pulse was applied and the short-term responses of δ13C in soil CO2 efflux (δ13CRsoil) and δ13C in aboveground plant respiration (δ13CRabove) were measured, as well as leaf gas exchange rates and soil microbial biomass δ13C responses. Both δ13CRsoil and δ 13CRabove values of all the trees decreased immediately after the water pulse. These responses were not driven by changes in Δi, but rather by a fast release of C stored in roots and shoots. Changes in δ13CRsoil associated with the water pulse were significantly positively correlated with changes in stomatal conductance, showing a strong impact of the plant component on δ13CRsoil. However, three days after the water pulse in girdled trees, changes in δ13CRsoil were related to changes in microbial biomass δ13C, suggesting that changes in the carbon source respired by soil microorganisms also contributed to the response of δ13CRsoil. Our study shows that improving our mechanistic understanding of the responses of δ13CR to changes in environmental conditions requires the understanding of not only the plant's physiological responses, but also the responses of soil microorganisms and of plant-microbial interactions.
An improved RST approach for timely alert and Near Real Time monitoring of oil spill disasters by using AVHRR data
Authors: Grimaldi C. S. L. , Casciello D. , Coviello I. , Lacava T. , Pergola N. , Tramutoli V.
Published: May 2011

Abstract. Information acquired and provided in Near Real Time is fundamental in contributing to reduce the impact of different sea pollution sources on the maritime environment. Optical data acquired by sensors aboard meteorological satellites, thanks to their high temporal resolution as well as to their delivery policy, can be profitably used for a Near Real Time sea monitoring, provided that accurate and reliable methodologies for analysis and investigation are designed, implemented and fully assessed. In this paper, the results achieved by the application of an improved version of RST (Robust Satellite Technique) to oil spill detection and monitoring will be shown. In particular, thermal infrared data acquired by the NOAA-AVHRR (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration-Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) have been analyzed and a new RST-based change detection index applied to the case of the oil spills that occurred off the Kuwait and Saudi Arabian coasts in January 1991 and during the Lebanon War in July 2006. The results obtained, even in comparison with those achieved by other AVHRR-based techniques, confirm the unique performance of the proposed approach in automatically detecting the presence of oil spill with a high level of reliability and sensitivity. Moreover, the potential of the extension of the proposed technique to sensors onboard geostationary satellites will be discussed within the context of oil spill monitoring systems, integrating products generated by high temporal (optical) and high spatial (radar) resolution satellite systems.
A Numerical Method for Predicting Acoustical Wave Propagation in Open Spaces
Authors: Papageorgakopoulos Johnny , Tsangaris Sokrates
Published: May 2011

We present a numerical methodology for evaluating wave propagation phenomena in two dimensions in the time domain with focus on the linear acoustic second-order wave equation. An outline of the higher-order compact discretization schemes followed by the time discretization technique is first presented. The method is completed with the addition of spatial filtering based on the same compact schemes' principles. The important role of boundary conditions is subsequently addressed. Two popular ways to truncate the computational domain in the near field are presented and compared here: first the formulation of “absorbing conditions” in the form of partial differential equations especially for the origin and second the construction of an absorbing layer surrounding the domain, in which waves (after they have exited the domain) are attenuated and decayed exponentially. Subsequently, the method is assessed by recalling three benchmark problems. In the first where a Gaussian pulse is generated and propagated in a 2D rectangular domain, the accuracy and absorbability of the boundary conditions are compared. In the second, a similar situation is investigated but under curvilinear coordinates and under the presence of a solid body which scatters the pulse. Finally the sound field inducted by the flow of corotating vortex pair is calculated and compared with the corresponding analytical solution.
Biomass Energy Economics
Authors: Benemann John R.
Published: May 2011

The energy crisis has become a permanent fixture in our lives. It is apparent that the brief era, roughly 1920-1970, of rela- tively low and declining fuel costs is over for good. The world economic system must adjust to a new era of high-cost fuels, supply dislocations, and transition to new energy sources. Large uncertainties exist about the future availability, production costs, and market prices of the conventional fuels-oil, gas, and coal. Even greater uncertainties exist about the costs of the alternative energy sources-nuclear power and renewable resources, principally solar. As more information becomes available, nuclear power is constantly required to increase its safety level, becoming ever more expensive. The high-risk, very large, very long-term capital
Coal Liquefaction
Authors: Hill George R.
Published: May 2011

The relative quantities of coal, petroleum (plus natural gas liquids), and natural gas proved and currently available in the United States are 18 X 1015 British thermal units (Btu), 3.7 X 1015 Btu, and 2.5 X 1015 Btu, respectively. The relative total recoverable resources are 134 X 1015 Btu for coal, 11.2 X 1015 Btu for petro- leum, and 9.5 X 1015 Btu for natural gas (Parent, 1979). Since coal represents roughly 86 percent of the total U.S. resource, one would expect its use to approximate that percentage of the energy input in the United States. But actually, the percentage of coal in the fossil energy input is only 21 percent. Petroleum and natural gas consumption accounts for nearly 75 percent. Almost half (48 percent) of the fossil energy used in the United States consists of petroleum and its products. Since some 45 percent of this petro- leum must now be imported, it is essential that our primary re- source, coal, be used in increasing amounts. This paper presents
Appropriate Government Policy Toward Commercialization of New Energy Supply Technologies
Authors: Schmalensee Richard
Published: May 2011

This article considers the merits of government support for the commercialization of particular energy supply technologies, and sketches a framework for the economic evaluation of different schemes for such support.' Specific current proposals are not analyzed in detail, as the emphasis is on identifying conditions under *Professor of Applied Economics, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
World Oil Price Increases Sources and Solutions
Authors: Danielsen Albert L. , Selby Edward B.
Published: May 2011

World oil prices have been high since 1973, compared to average production costs and historical norms, because the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has functioned as a viable price-setting and output-restricting institution. Prices increased sharply in 1973-1974 and 1979, and in each case OPEC validated the higher price levels by subsequently cutting production. On the other hand, the importing countries have failed to establish institutions of their own that could mitigate price increases because they have not perceived the problem to be one of institutional control over prices. Instead, they have tended to view high oil prices as the result of resource scarcity. Their responses have been predominantly intermediate to long term, stockpiling for an embargo, encouraging conservation, and promoting the development of alternative energy.
Energy Efficiency Versus Human Lives
Authors: Stelzer Irwin M.
Published: May 2011

The controversy over the cost of government regulation has led to an even more fundamental policy dispute. Those concerned about the cost of rules concerning safety, environment, health and so on (which are regularly spun out by the Occupational Safety and Health Administration, the Environmental Protection Agency, and their kin) generally seek to test the costs of these regulations against their benefits. Will the proposed rule, they ask, reduce the incidence of some disease or hazard sufficiently to be "worth" doing? Will the benefits to society, measured in dollar value of saved lives and lowered health and other costs, at least equal the costs of implementing the rule? Needless to say, the debate over how to measure many of the variables, especially the value of human life, is often heated. But those arguments are trivial compared with disputes between advocates of applying some cost-benefit test and those morally repelled by the procedure. Arguing that human lives and health cannot be valued in dollars, these groups most prominently, the Naderites-contend that better highway safety, cleaner air and water, safer working environments, and the like are absolute goods.
Energy Policy Forum: An Analysis of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Civilian R &D Budget*
Authors: Sutherland Ronald J.
Published: May 2011

The Department of Energy’s R &D budget has experienced major changes in funding during the last two administrations. These changes are explained by administration policies that are based on perceived conditions of market failure. Government funding of R &D can be supported on grounds of externalities, public goods and the absence of national contingency markets. Such funding cannot be justified on grounds of being long-term or high-risk. A portfolio model offers insights as to the appropriate definition of risk, a social discount rate and a balanced portfolio of R &D projects.
Reserves and Reserve Production Ratios In Imperfect Markets
Authors: Brown Keith C.
Published: May 2011

Recent changes in reserves or reserve/production ratios are often cited as evidence of hypothesized economic changes in petroleum markets. However, the technology of petroleum production and the fact that international petroleum markets are not perfectly competitive combine to render incorrect interpretations all too easy. Both market imperfections and technical limitations to production rates slow market adjustments to changes in expected prices or costs. This makes it difficult to use observed changes in reserve/production ratios as evidence of some hypothesized economic change, since neither of the observations used to get the observed change may have been close to the then-prevailing long run equilibrium.
Mideast Governments and the Oil Price Prospect*
Authors: Adelman M. A.
Published: May 2011

The Mideast oil-producing nations are the heirs of the multi-national oil companies whom they gradually expropriated, starting around 1950. They have inherited the companies' problem: repressing investment and production.
Price Elasticities of Natural Gas Demand in France and West Germany
Authors: Estrada Javier , Fugleberg Ole
Published: May 2011

This article analyzes the own-price elasticities of natural gas and cross-price elasticities between gas and other fuels in France and West Germany. A model with constant substitution elasticities would not give enough information to study interfuel competition. Therefore we adopted a model based on translog functions, which has few restrictions on measuring elasticities of energy demand.

The results show that the absolute values of the elasticities are generally higher for West Germany than for France. A possible explanation is that in West Germany consumers change their fuel demand faster with fluctuations in relative prices of the different energy sources, in part because of the wider adaption of multi-firing equipment.

On the whole our results show that energy demand is rather inelastic, a result in accord with most recent analyses.
VIF Vivit: Reply to Henderson
Authors: Singer S. Fred
Published: May 2011

Henderson's main conclusions are incorrect. Oil is a fungible substance, and therefore price discrimination is not possible. (Some argue, however, that there is evidence the world oil market is segmented, and that a degree of price discrimination therefore is possible; Weiner, 1984). Consequently, a variable import fee (VIF) imposed on imported oil will shield the US economy from short-lived price collapses, as intended - and at the same time garner modest revenues for the Treasury.
A Structural Decomposition Analysis of Changes in Energy Demand in Taiwan: 1971-1984
Authors: Chia-Yon Chen , Rose Adam
Published: May 2011

Taiwan represents an interesting case study of a nation that has been able to adapt to the energy crisis remarkably well, registering sustained economic growth despite increased oil import expenditures. Certain characteristics of Taiwan's economy set it apart from a number of other developing countries. First, Taiwan's economy is very closely inter-linked with international markets. It is a major exporter of goods, and it has had to rely heavily on imports of energy since its indigenous energy resources are so meager. Second, the nation has had an unusually high rate of growth over the past 30 years. For example, Taiwan's GNP grew at an average rate of 9.1 percent per year during the period 1952-1980, as opposed to growth rates of generally below 5 percent experienced by many other LDCs during that period.
Flexibility Benefits of Demand-Side Programs in Electric Utility Planning*
Authors: Hirst Eric
Published: May 2011

Electric utilities face a variety of uncertainties that complicate their long-term resource planning and acquisition. Many utilities deal with these uncertainties by pursuing flexible strategies that allow changes to be made incrementally with little difficulty and at low cost. Thus, utilities today avoid construction of large, baseload power plants because of their long construction times and high capital costs. On the other hand, utilities view combustion turbines as flexible because they have small unit sizes, take only a few years to build, are inexpensive, and can later be converted to combined-cycle units (to increase capacity and improve performance). Energy-efficiency and load-management programs, because of their inherently small unit size and opportunities to adjust participation over time, are attractive for the same reasons. My paper compares the benefits of flexibility provided by resources with short lead times and small sizes with the costs of these alternatives. The focus is on utility demand-side management programs, primarily because the flexibility benefits of such programs have not yet been quantified. Utilities can adjust participation in their demand-side programs over time. This flexibility yields substantial economic benefits because these electricity savings can closely match future load growth.
CAFE OR PRICE?: An Analysis of the Effects of Federal Fuel Economy Regulations and Gasoline Price on New Car MPG, 1978-89
Authors: Greene David L.
Published: May 2011

Following a tripling of world oil prices in 1973-74, the U.S. Congress passed the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 establishing mandatory fuel economy standards for automobiles and light trucks. Beginning at 18 MPG in 1978, the passenger car standards increased to 27.5 MPG by 1985. There has been considerable debate about the influence of the standards, as opposed to the gasoline price increases in 1973-74 and 1979-80, on new car fuel economy. Twelve years of average fuel economy data are now available for every manufacturer’s domestic and imported car fleets, making possible a statistical estimation of the relative importance of standards versus fuel prices in determining new car MPG. In this paper a penalty function is formulated in which deviations from either the standard or the market equilibrium demand for fuel economy create costs for manufacturers. An equation for new car MPG is derived by minimizing the sum of quadratic penalty functions. Estimation of the model, using 15 sets of manufacturer CAFE data for 1978-89, clearly indicates that the CAFE standards were a significant constraint for many manufacturers, and were perhaps twice as important an influence as gasoline prices. A test for structural change in the model does not reject the hypothesis that the CAFE constraint had the same effect on carmakers before and after 1983.
An Empirical Test of An Electric Utility Under An Allowable Rate of Return
Authors: Hsu George J.Y. , Chen Tser-Yieth
Published: May 2011

This paper examines a utility’s behaviour under the regulatory constraint of a maximum allowable rate of return. The golden rule of production efficiency, i.e. that the marginal productivities of the input factors are equal, is used as our criterion to examine the utility’s economic behaviour. Our case study uses a translog production function to investigate the production efficiency of the Taiwan Power Company. Two null hypotheses are tested with the results obtained supporting the existence of the A-J effect. The implications of the results are discussed, a comparison with previous studies is presented, and suggestions for further research are made.
Customer Responsiveness to Real-Time Pricing of Electricity
Authors: Zarnikau Jay
Published: May 2011

The success of real-time pricing efforts will depend in large part upon the extent to which electricity consumers are able to alter their consumption patterns in response to the prices quoted by the utility. This article provides some original estimates of hourly price elasticity responses to real-time prices by large industrial energy consumers.

An econometric translog cost function methodology was adopted for this purpose. Using data for large industrial users in 1986, the estimated own-price elasticity response averaged -0.09, implying a small but significant reaction to the changing hourly prices. Design deficiencies in the particular rate program studied may have limited customer reaction.
Global CO2 Emission Reductions -the Impacts of Rising Energy Costs*
Authors: Manne Alan S. , Richels Richard G.
Published: May 2011

In this paper, we explore how the costs of a C02 limit are likely to vary among regions. The analysis is based on Global 2100: an analytical framework for estimating the economy-wide impacts of rising energy costs. We investigate how emissions are likely to evolve in the absence of a carbon limit, and how the regional pattern is likely to shift during the next century. We then examine alternative strategies to limit global emissions, calculate the impacts of higher energy costs upon conventionally measured GDP, and indicate the size of the carbon tax that would be required to induce individual consumers to reduce their dependence on carbon-intensive fuels.
The Greenhouse Effect: A View From Europe
Authors: Pearce David , Barbier Edward
Published: May 2011

Various countries in Europe are considering tax schemes to combat the threat of global warming and Europeans have shown their concern by their growing support of the various Green parties. Unfortunately, policy-oriented research on climate warming lags behind North America and governments still seem to display a “wait and see” philosophy. Europe expects a leading role in any global climate convention and, because of its trade links and the uniqueness of the British Commonwealth, has a special role in regard to developing countries. These links are especially important since domestic policies must be coordinated and combined with international agreements in order to be effective.
Capacity Rationing and Fixed Cost Collection
Authors: Woo Chi-Keung
Published: May 2011

This paper proposes a simple load management program with a two-part tariff to ration an electric utility’s installed capacity and to collect its fixed costs under asymmetric information and demand uncertainty. Because of its simplicity, the program is a practical alternative to spot pricing and rationing schemes with highly nonlinear rate structures.
Testing Alternative Hypotheses of Oil Producer Behavior
Authors: Dahl Carol , Yücel Mine
Published: May 2011

Conventional wisdom holds that OPEC is a weakly functioning cartel with non-OPEC producers forming a “competitive fringe.” However, several studies have challenged the cartel hypothesis for OPEC with a few even challenging the competitive hypothesis for non-OPEC producers. In this paper, we test competing hypotheses (which include dynamic optimization, targetrevenue, competition, cartel, and swing production) for production decisions for both OPEC and non-OPEC producers. Recently developed cost data allow these tests to be done on the most general model to date. In our tests, we find no evidence for dynamic optimization. Formal target-revenue models are rejected, but there is some evidence that revenue targeting may influence production for some OPEC countries and a few non-OPEC countries. We find no evidence that any of the OPEC countries behave in a competitive manner. More surprisingly, we find no evidence that the fringe is competitive. Using cointegration tests, we are unable to find formal evidence of coordination in the form of strict cartel behavior or swing production among OPEC countries. Taken as a whole, the evidence suggests that loose coordination or duopoly is most consistent with OPEC behavior.
Comparing the Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on Global Warming
Authors: Eckaus Richard S.
Published: May 2011

This paper analyses the usefulness as a policy tool of a physical index of radiative forcing of a greenhouse gas, the Global Wanning Potential (GWP), as proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It is shown that the economic opportunity costs of an increment in radiative forcing will vary over time, while the GWP implicitly sets these costs equal. The GWP can, therefore, play no role in policy making.
Project Evaluation: A Practical Asset Pricing Method
Authors: Jacoby Henry D. , Laughton David G.
Published: May 2011

This paper presents a practical approach to project evaluation using techniques of modern financial economics, with a sample application to oil development under a complex tax system. The method overcomes shortcomings of conventional discounted cash flow (DCF) methods which are either imprecise about the relation between economic value and uncertainty, or are rigid and unrealistic in the required assumptions about how a project's risks (and therefore its value) are influenced by market conditions, the project physical structure, and tax and contract provisions. It is based on the formulation and estimation of an "information model" which represents the resolution over time of uncertainties underlying a project (oil prices in the examples shown). The project can then be valued using derivative asset valuation, which replicates the consequences of a complex asset by a traded portfolio of simpler assets (in our case, riskless bonds and future claims on oil).
Estimating Disaggregated Price Elasticities in Industrial Energy Demand
Authors: Elkhafif Mahmoud A.T.
Published: May 2011

Econometric energy models are used to evaluate past policy experiences, assess the impact of future policies and forecast energy demand. This paper estimates an industrial energy demand model for the province of Ontario using a linear-logit specification for fuel type equations which are embedded in an aggregate energy demand equation. Short-term, long-term, own- and cross-price elasticities are estimated for electricity, natural gas, oil and coal. Own- and cross-price elasticities are disaggregated to show the overall price elasticities and the “energy-constant” price elasticities when aggregate energy use is held unchanged. These disaggregations suggest that a substantial part of energy conservation comes from the higher aggregate price of energy and not from inteifuel substitution.
The Economic Impact of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990
Authors: Jorgenson Dale W. , Wilcoxen Peter J.
Published: May 2011

The purpose of this paper is to quantify the economic impact of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990. The long-run cost of environmental regulations enacted prior to 1990 amounts to 2.59% of the U.S. national product. The new legislation will reduce the national product by a further 0.6% when the impact is complete. Electric utilities and primary metals industries will be especially hard hit by this legislation.
Global CO2 Agreements: A Cost-Effective Approach
Authors: Kverndokk Snorre
Published: May 2011

In this paper I specify CO2 abatement cost functions for five different world regions. A cost-effective CO2 agreement is defined by the emissions that follow from minimising the total abatement costs, given a specified CO2 emission limit. Under the cost-effective agreement, the industrialised countries bear all reductions, while developing countries are actually allowed to increase emissions compared to the 1990 level. The developing countries will, nevertheless, bear the highest burdens under this treaty. The agreement is also analysed under different tradeable permit regimes and compared to uniform percentage reductions. The transfers from tradeable permit systems are high, and may be difficult for political leaders to justify. An allocation based on historical CO2 emissions is the only simple rule which ensures every region is better off than under uniform percentage reductions.
Energy Consumption and Economic Activity in China
Authors: Tang Chuanlong , La Croix Sumner J.
Published: May 2011

This paper uses province-level cross-section data to explore the relationship between energy consumption and economic activity in China. Our key Jinding is that the income elasticity of energy consumption is approximately 1.0. When a province exports energy or has significant amounts of heavy industry, its energy consumption is higher. However, income elasticities are similar across energy-exporting and -importing provinces. Energy consumption is lower in coastal provinces than inland provinces, but the income elasticity is higher in the rapidly developing coastal provinces. We conclude that China’s economy is unlikely to become significantly more energy-intensive during the 1990s.
Effects of an Increasing Role for Independents on Petroleum Resource Development in the Gulf of Mexico OCS Region
Authors: Iledare Omowumi O. , Pulsipher Allan G. , Baumann Robert H.
Published: May 2011

Major oil and gas companies are shifting their exploration and production (E&P) investment from the United States to foreign countries. As they do so, smaller companies, "independents," are expected to play a more prominent role in domestic E&P. Within both industry and government circles the apprehension is widespread that such a shift from the majors to the independents will cause domestic oil and gas resources to be developed less aggressively and less efficiently. This paper attempts to discern and quantify differences infirm behavior and success among firms of different sizes (majors, large and small independents) operating on the Gulf of Mexico OCS region. Contrary to conventional thinking, descriptive analysis of data on drilling effort and outcomes on the Gulf of Mexico indicates independents have been both more aggressive and successful than the majors in exploration while the majors have been only moderately more successful than independents in development drilling.
The Development of a UK Natural Gas Spot Market
Authors: Roeber Joe
Published: May 2011

This paper examines parallels between the evolution of spot markets jor oil during the 1980s, particularly Brent, and what is now happening in the UK gas industry. The structure of supply, formerly within the control of British Gas, is breaking up under antitrust and regulatory pressures, and the short-term balancing needs of the system are being externalised. This is giving rise to a spot market. This paper identifies four stages in the development of a spot market, of which the UK market is presently in the first and second stages (physical balancing and the development of price transparency). Feedback effects on prices are already apparent, and the fourth stage, the development of risk management tools, is being discussed. This scenario was drawn up three years ago, based upon the experience of oil before the existence of a gas spot market was acknowledged. It has so far not missed a step. According to this analysis, the question over the extension of this logic to the gas markets in Continental Europe is not whether, but when?
Gas or Electricity, which is Cheaper?: An Econometric Approach with Application to Australian Expenditure Data
Authors: Bartels Robert , Fiebig Denzil G. , Plumb Michael H.
Published: May 2011

The question of whether it is cheaper for households to use electricity or gas for space heating, water heating and cooking, generates much debate in Australia. Generally, gas appliances are technically less efficient than electrical appliances, but on a per MJ basis, gas is cheaper than electricity. The trade-off between these two factors has typically been assessed using an engineering approach which ignores the fact that gas and electric appliances might be used in different ways in the home and that there may be price effects. This paper utilises an alternative perspective based on econometric methods. We analyse the actual energy expenditures of a large sample of Australian households and estimate the expenditure on the main end-uses for households using different fuel types. We find that households using electricity for main heating spend considerably less than households using gas. For cooking, households using gas generally spend less, while for water heating the results are mixed. We discuss several possible interpretations of these results in terms of consumer preferences and running costs.
An Institutional Design for an Electricity Contract Market with Central Dispatch
Authors: Chao Hung-po , Peck Stephen
Published: May 2011

In Chao and Peck (1996), we introduced a new approach to the design of an efficient electricity market that incorporates externalities due to loop flows. This approach enables an innovative flow-based bidding scheme for pricing transmission services. In the short term, due to some technological constraints, a hybrid institutional structure that encompasses a decentralized contract market (via the system operator) is necessary for implementation. In this paper, we present an incentive scheme that fosters efficiency and reliability within such art institutional structure. An essential ingredient is that the system operator provides all electricity traders choices of priority insurance against interruptions. We show how this scheme will ensure the integrity of the electrical contract market and provide the system operator incentives to maintain system reliability in all efficient manner in real-time dispatch.
Decomposition of Aggregate Energy and Gas Emission Intensities for Industry: A Refined Divisia Index Method
Authors: Ang B. W. , Choi Ki-Hong
Published: May 2011

Several methods for decomposing energy consumption or energy-induced gas emissions in industry have been proposed by various analysts. Two commonly encountered problems in the application of these methods are the existence of a residual after decomposition and the handling of the value zero In the data set. To overcome these two problems, we modify the often used Divisia index decomposition method by replacing the arithmetic mean weight function by a logarithmic one. This refined Divisia index method can be shown to give perfect decomposition with no residual. It also gives converging decomposition results when the zero values in the data set are replaced by a sufficiently small number. The properties of the method are highlighted using the data of the Korean industry.
Chaos in Natural Gas Futures?
Authors: Chwee Victor
Published: May 2011

Technical analysis using charting techniques to forecast future price trends can be difficult due to the volatile and unpredictable nature of futures market. Alternatively, the emergence of chaos theory seeks to find order in random looking futures price behavior. Hence, this paper tests for the presence of nonlinearity and chaos using the NYMEX 1 -month, 2-month, 3-month, and 6-month daily natural gas settlement prices, from April 1990 to September 1996. In doing so, we use the BDS statistic of Brock, Dechert, and Scheinkman (1987) for nonlinearity testing and then proceed to compute the Lyapunov spectra to determine to what degree futures data resemble a chaotic system. Although the results indicate the presence of nonlinearity, they fail to provide significant evidence of deterministic chaos.
Reducing the Impacts of Energy Price Volatility Through Dynamic Portfolio Selection
Authors: Humphreys H. Brett , McClain Katherine T.
Published: May 2011

This paper uses financial portfolio theory to demonstrate how the energy mix consumed in the United States could be chosen given a national goal to reduce the risky to the domestic macroeconomy of unanticipated energy price shocks. An efficient portfolio frontier of U.S. energy consumption is constructed using time-varying variances and covariances estimated with generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic models. The set of efficient portfolios developed are intended to minimize the impact of price shocks, but are not the least cost energy consumption bundles. The results indicate that while the electric utility industry is operating close to the minimum variance position, a shift towards coal consumption would reduce price volatility for overall U.S. energy consumption. With the inclusion of potential externality costs, the shift remains away from oil but towards natural gas instead of coal.
A Thousand Years of Energy Use in the United Kingdom
Authors: Fouquet Roger , Pearson Peter J.G.
Published: May 2011

This paper examines the evolution of energy use and its influences in the United Kingdom over the very long run by combining economic literature and statistical information. The paper argues that the provision of energy services, mainly heat and power, is bound by the tensions between a changing growth rate and structure of economic activity and the constraints of energetic resources. After periods of tension, energy price differentials, as well as the diffusion of technological innovation and the development of new fuels, led to new mixes of energy sources to supply heat and power. This paper identifies three major changes that characterise the history of UK energy use: first, the dramatic increase in per capita energy use; second, the shift in methods of supplying energy services, from biomass sources to fossil fuels, from coal to petroleum to natural gas, and from raw forms to more value-added energy sources; and, third, the replacing of direct methods of generating power, from animate sources, wind and water, by the use of mechanical and electrical methods, which have so far depended mainly on fossil fuels. These changes were instrumental in influencing the relationship between GDP and energy use, and also the levels of environmental pollution.
The Alcohol Fuels Option in the Third World
Authors: Ramsay William
Published: May 2011

Energy planners in developing areas have become increasingly interested in the possibility of using alcohol-either ethanol (grain alcohol) or methanol (wood alcohol) as a substitute for gasoline refined from imported oil. The most prominent example is Brazil, where there has been interest in alcohol fuels for the past fifty years, and where a serious alcohol program has been in place since 1975 (Hammond, 1977). Brazil is the leader, but not the only participant, in such work. Other Latin American countries, like Costa Rica and the Dominican Republic, have expressed great interest in alcohol, and Colombia has committed itself to large-scale production of alcohol during the 1980s. Asian countries, such as Thailand and Indonesia, have investigated the option, and serious work is being done in Papua New Guinea (IEE, 1980, pp. 27-29). And, of course, planners in Third World countries are influenced by the current gasohol program in the United States, by programs in New Zealand and Australia, and by experiments with methanol in West Germany and Sweden (LEE, 1980, pp. 24-26).
An Analysis of the Supply of Oil
Authors: Reza Ali M.
Published: May 2011

The demand for oil has been studied more extensively than the supply of oil, perhaps because the theory underlying the demand for oil is more developed. But a better understanding of the supply of oil is also necessary in our analysis of the oil market, and this article is an effort in that direction. More specifically, in this article we are interested in determining the shape of the supply of oil for an oil-exporting nation and the factors that cause this supply to change; upon aggregation of such individual supplies OPEC's supply can then be obtained.
Sources of Deep Coal Mine Productivity Change, 1962-1975
Authors: Baker Joe G.
Published: May 2011

The purpose of this article is to investigate the causes of labor productivity decline in bituminous deep mines during the 1970s. Prior to 1970, coal mining was a leading industry in productivity growth: average deep mine labor productivity increased from 5.8 tons per miner per shift in 1950 to 15.6 tons per miner per shift in 1969. Since 1969, average labor productivity has fallen every year to a 1977 level of 8.7 tons per miner per shift.
Energy, Entropy, and Economic Analysis: Some New Directions
Authors: Huettner David A.
Published: May 2011

The relationships between energy analysis, entropy analysis, and economic analysis have been intensely debated over the past decade, and a variety of conflicting claims have been made concerning the strengths and weaknesses of each approach. Recent articles' indicate a growing general agreement that energy content valuation is an energy theory of value, and that net energy, entropy, and economic analysis all reach different conclusions.
The Impact of President Reagan’s Sudden Decontrol of Petroleum Prices on Petroleum Consumption
Authors: Reza Ali M.
Published: May 2011

President Reagan lifted all petroleum price controls shortly after he took office. Previously, the Carter administration had scheduled these controls to be eliminated gradually, with complete decontrol occurring by October 1, 1981. It is of interest to determine the effect of the sudden decontrol on petroleum consumption; in order to measure this effect, the role played by price must be isolated.
Energy in a Finite World— Expansio ad Absurdum? A Rebuttal
Authors: Hafele Wolf
Published: May 2011

In commenting on the IIASA global energy study, Amory Lovins (1981) implicitly maintains that only those who hold his extreme views are objective. If not, the analyst is dismissed as being subjective, of low technical ability, and mindless. A scrutiny of Lovins's highly repetitive statements reveals that he is essentially saying two things.
The Next Restructuring: Environmental Regulation
Authors: Ellennan A. Denny
Published: May 2011

From oil, to natural gas, and now electricity, the regulation of energy markets has been successively restructured to allow greater scope to market forces. The likely next domain for restructuring, environmental regulation, may seem far fetched now, but it is no more so than the restructuring of electric utility regulation would have seemed to be twenty years ago. The "grand experiment" with emissions trading under the U.S. acid rain program has set a propitious example by showing that markets in environmental goods can be constructed and that the explicit recognition of property rights in the use of the environment is compatible with effective and non-intrusive environmental regulation.
The Long-Run Evolution of Energy Prices
Authors: Pindyck Robert S.
Published: May 2011

In this paper I examine the long-run behavior of oil, coal, and natural gas prices, using up to 127 years of data, and address the following questions: Mat does over a century of data tell us about the stochastic dynamics of price evolution, and how it should be modelled? Can models of reversion to stochastically fluctuating trend lines help us forecast prices over horizons of 20 years or more? And what do the answers to these questions tell us about investment decisions that are dependent on prices and their stochastic evolution ?
Fuel Economy Rebound Effect for U.S. Household Vehicles
Authors: Greene David L. , Kahn James R. , Gibson Robert C.
Published: May 2011

This paper presents an econometric estimation of the "rebound effect" for household vehicle travel in the United States based on analysis of survey data collected by the Energy Information Administration (ELA) at approximately threeyear intervals over a 15-year period. The rebound effect measures the tendency to "take back" potential energy savings from fuel economy improvements as increased travel. Vehicle use models were estimated for one-, two-, three-, four-, and five-vehicle households. The results confirm recent estimates based on national or state-level data: a long-run "take back" of about 20 percent of potential energy savings. Consumer responses to changes in fuel economy or fuel price per gallon appear to be equal and opposite in sign. Recognizing the interdependencies among miles of travel, fuel economy and price is key to obtaining meaningful results.