On a new set of rules “Engineering surveys for construction in avalanche-prone areas. General requirements”
Authors: Черноус П.А. 
Published: July 2024

Первый общегосударственный документ, содержащий правила оценки лавинной опасности: «Указания по расчёту снеголавинных нагрузок при проектировании сооружений. ВСН 02-73» в России появился в 1973 году. Несмотря на многие недостатки, он использовался до последнего времени. В 2018 году были созданы новые правила оценки лавинной опасности «СП 428.1325800.2018. Свод правил. Инженерные изыскания для строительства в лавиноопасных районах. Общие требования». Часть недостатков предыдущего документа в нём устранены. Приведены используемые термины и определения. Впервые в нормативном документе представлен метод выделения лавинных очагов. Корректнее сформулированы условия, при которых требуется оценка лавинной опасности. Исключён бывший в предыдущем документе метод расчёта скоростей и дальностей выброса текучих лавин. Допускается, в случае недостаточности данных для анализа, рассчитывать максимально возможные границы лавиносбора, а не границы заданной обеспеченности. Появились новые разделы, касающиеся применения аэрокосмических, фитоценотических, дендрохронологических методов, а также методов исследования погребенных почв для оценки лавинной опасности. Вместе с тем, в новых правилах имеются противоречия и недостатки. Необходимы более чёткие и однозначные формулировки используемых понятий. Методы оценки скорости пылевых лавин недостаточно обоснованы и дают сильно завышенные значения. Нет достаточных обоснований для определения границы воздействия воздушной волны. Методы оценки снегонакопления в лавинном очаге не учитывают пространственной изменчивости высоты снега и могут привести к большим ошибкам в оценке лавинной опасности. Применение статистического моделирования для оценки вероятностей лавин и их характеристик в предложенном виде не является обоснованным и может привести к недооценке лавинной опасности. Одной из причин несовершенства нового документа является отсутствие в нём требований к точности выполняемых с его помощью оценок. Предлагается к моменту актуализации свода правил более широко и предметно обсудить его содержание и возможные изменения в нём. Abstract. The first national document containing the rules for avalanche danger assessing: «Guidelines for calculating avalanche loads in the design of structures. VSN 02-73», appeared in Russia in 1973. Despite many shortcomings, it was used until recently. In 2018, new rules for avalanche danger assessing: «SP 428.1325800.2018. Set of rules. Engineering surveys for construction in avalanche-prone areas. General requirements» were worked out. Some of the shortcomings of the previous document were eliminated in it. Used terms and definitions are given. For the first time in a regulatory document, a method for identifying of avalanche starting zones is presented. The conditions under which an avalanche danger assessment is required are formulated more correctly. The method for calculating the speeds and runouts of flowing avalanches, which was in the previous document, has been excluded. The rules allow, in case of insufficient data for analysis, to calculate the maximum possible avalanche path boundaries, but not the boundaries of the specified probability. New sections have appeared on the application of aerospace, phytocenotic, dendrochronological methods, as well as methods for studying buried soils to assess avalanche danger. At the same time, there are contradictions and shortcomings in the new rules. Clearer and mono-semantic terms and definitions are needed. Method for estimating the speed of powder avalanches is insufficiently substantiated and give greatly overestimated values. There is no sufficient rationale for determining the boundary of the air wave (powder avalanche) impact. The methods for assessing snow accumulation in an avalanche starting zone do not take into account the spatial variability of the snow depth and can lead to large errors in the assessment of avalanche danger. The use of statistical modeling to assess the probabilities of avalanches and their characteristics, in the proposed form, is not correct and can lead to an underestimation of the avalanche hazard. One of the reasons for the imperfection of the new document is the lack of requirements for the accuracy of the estimates performed with its help. It is proposed to discuss the document content and its possible changes more broadly and substantively by the time the set of rules update

The first national document containing the rules for avalanche danger assessing: «Guidelines for calculating avalanche loads in the design of structures. VSN 02-73», appeared in Russia in 1973. Despite many shortcomings, it was used until recently. In 2018, new rules for avalanche danger assessing: «SP 428.1325800.2018. Set of rules. Engineering surveys for construction in avalanche-prone areas. General requirements» were worked out. Some of the shortcomings of the previous document were eliminated in it. Used terms and definitions are given. For the first time in a regulatory document, a method for identifying of avalanche starting zones is presented. The conditions under which an avalanche danger assessment is required are formulated more correctly. The method for calculating the speeds and runouts of flowing avalanches, which was in the previous document, has been excluded. The rules allow, in case of insufficient data for analysis, to calculate the maximum possible avalanche path boundaries, but not the boundaries of the specified probability. New sections have appeared on the application of aerospace, phytocenotic, dendrochronological methods, as well as methods for studying buried soils to assess avalanche danger. At the same time, there are contradictions and shortcomings in the new rules. Clearer and mono-semantic terms and definitions are needed. Method for estimating the speed of powder avalanches is insufficiently substantiated and give greatly overestimated values. There is no sufficient rationale for determining the boundary of the air wave (powder avalanche) impact. The methods for assessing snow accumulation in an avalanche starting zone do not take into account the spatial variability of the snow depth and can lead to large errors in the assessment of avalanche danger. The use of statistical modeling to assess the probabilities of avalanches and their characteristics, in the proposed form, is not correct and can lead to an underestimation of the avalanche hazard. One of the reasons for the imperfection of the new document is the lack of requirements for the accuracy of the estimates performed with its help. It is proposed to discuss the document content and its possible changes more broadly and substantively by the time the set of rules update.