bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Field Price Deregulation and the Carrier Status of Natural Gas Pipelines
Authors: Broadman Harry G. , Montgomery W. David , Russell Milton
Published: May 2011

The move to deregulate natural gas field markets is likely to stimulate changes in the way the downstream segments of the industry are regulated. In particular, because the uncertainty endemic to freer upstream markets will emerge for the first time in the contemporary gas industry, the relative merits of having pipelines perform different economic functions will be altered. Producers and distributors will also, in varying degrees, face greater price uncertainty than before. This will lead to changes in the desired allocation of risk and incentives associated with activities traditionally carried out by transmission companies.
Changing Climate and Energy Modeling: A Review
Authors: Reilly John , Edmonds Jae
Published: May 2011

In recent years, the greenhouse problem has aroused widespread public concern. Changing Climate, a report by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (1983), represents a useful and timely synthesis of current scientific investigations of the impact of greenhouse gases on climate and society. The report is notable both for the research it documents and its influence on the public awareness of the issue.
Short-Term Price Formation in the U.S. Uranium Market
Authors: Owen A. D.
Published: May 2011

Since the establishment of a private market for uranium in the United States in the late 1960s, the industry's fluctuating fortunes have been reflected in the short-term price of uranium as represented by NUEXCO's "exchange value."' Exchange values are current prices for current or near-term delivery. While NUEXCO emphasizes that its exchange value is not a "spot" price in the usual sense of the word, it still is generally regarded as an indicator of uranium spot (short-term) market price levels.
Competition as a Complement to Regulation
Authors: Rozek Richard P.
Published: May 2011

Competition and regulation are often perceived to be in conflict, because regulation usually evolves in response to a failure of the market system. In the case of public utilities in the United States, the familiar argument is that production scale economies make it cheaper for a single firm to provide essential products or services than for two or more firms to do so. To take advantage of the production efficiencies but avoid the resource allocation problems inherent in monopoly levels of price and output, either assets are publicly owned or a privately owned firm is regulated.' In the first case, the incentive to maximize profits is replaced by the need to maximize political support.' Thus the price charged for output is less than the monopoly price. In the second case, states have created public utility commissions (PUCs) to control both access to the market and the monopolist's price and output decisions.
The Economics of Natural Gas Utilization in Developing Countries: Methodology
Authors: Farzin Y. Hossein
Published: May 2011

The sharp oil price increases of the 1970s, and the consequent balance-of-payments difficulties, encouraged many oil-importing developing countries to develop and exploit their indigenous energy resources. Today, several developing countries with commercially attractive reserves of natural gas (for example, Bangladesh, Egypt, Pakistan, and Thailand) have seriously begun to use their gas resources for internal domestic and industrial purposes as well as for exports. They now confront the basic economic question of how to value gas resources and how to allocate them.
Industrial and Commercial Demand for Electricity by Time of Day
Authors: Bosworth Derek , Pugh Clive
Published: May 2011

The initial stimulus for this note came from Chung and Aigner (1981), which examined the impact of a major change in electricity tariff structure on industrial and commercial electricity demands. Using a translog cost function the authors investigate the effects on consumption of a change in the pricing practices of the Pacific Gas and Electricity Corporation (PGEC). Instead of charging a uniform price for electricity throughout the 24-hour period, PGEC switched to a "time of use" (TOU) pricing regime. The model performed well for 10 of the 13 industry groups over the 41-month period, and indicated a considerable variation across industries in the impact of TOU pricing. The authors find a general pattern of moderate response to TOU pricing in the peak period and some substitution among electricity demands over other times of the day. The industries that showed the most elastic demands were logging camps, paper mills, industrial gases, and cement manufacturers (as well as shopping centers and educational institutions in the nonmanufacturing sector). The limited available evidence suggests that a similar diversity of responses exists across industries in other countries (Mitchell, Manning, and Acton 1978, pp. 89-120).
Coal Transportation System Modeling—The Case of Taiwan: A Comment
Authors: Pachauri R. K. , Chen Chia-Yon , Srivastava Leena
Published: May 2011

In his recent Energy Journal article, G. H. Tzeng emphasizes on the transportation aspects of increased coal use in Taiwan. He does not, however, offer much detail on the economic basis for the switch in National Energy Policy from imported oil to coal. While such a switch confirms that the exercise of rational fuel mix choices has found its due place in Taiwan, it seems appropriate to examine the efficiency of such a switch and its implications, especially for import balances. The new Taiwan energy policy Tzeng describes would increase coal consumption from 7.8 million tons (MT) in 1982 to 43.4 MT over the period ending in 2001. Ninety percent of this requirement would be imported. Of this, more than half would go to the electric power industry (23.8 MT by 2001). The total growth in coal consumption projected by Tzeng for this period amounts to 456 percent in 19 years.
Natural Gas from Seaweed: Is Near-Term R&D Funding by the U.S. Gas Industry Warranted?'
Authors: Gopalakrishnan Chennat
Published: May 2011

This paper is the result of a study of critical factors the Gas Research Institute (GRI) needed to consider in deciding whether to continue R&D funding of a Marine Biomass Project (M BP). The mission of this project is to determine the commercial feasibility of large marine biomass farms for methane conversion and to develop such farms if they prove viable (Aquaculture Associates, 1982).
Residential Energy Use in the OECD
Authors: Schipper Lee , Ketoff Andrea N.
Published: May 2011

In this article we describe the evolution of residential energy use in OECD countries over the 1970-1982 period. We focus on European countries but refer also to findings for the United States, Canada, and Japan. We quantify the changes in energy consumption (particularly those that occurred in response to the great price shocks of 1973-1974 and 1979-1981), assess the permanency of these changes through 1982, and speculate on trends through 1983 on the basis of preliminary data. This analysis summarizes the results of a continuing project (Schipper, Ketoff, and Kahane, 1985) to identify, analyze, and monitor residential energy use in nearly a dozen OECD countries (Canada, Denmark, France, West Germany, Italy, Japan, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States).
Evaluating Energy Options for Israel: A Case Study
Authors: Levin Nissan , Tishler Asher , Zahavi Jacob
Published: May 2011

More than 98 percent of Israel's primary energy resources are imported, most of it as crude oil, the rest of it as coal, placing the country in a most vulnerable and awkward position. The sharp increases in crude oil prices in 1973 following the Yom Kippur War and in 1979 has increased the country's economic burden, contributing to its increasing deficit in the balance of payments and staggering inflation rate. Perhaps here more than anywhere else, a balanced energy policy is most crucial for security and well-being. Such policy would allow diversification of primary energy resources by using more alternative and renewable resources supplemented by a variety of ways of managing demand and controlling peak-load growth.
Elements of Market Power in the Natural Gas Pipeline Industry
Authors: Broadman Harry G.
Published: May 2011

As a result of the distortions that have beset natural gas markets in the wake of partial wellhead deregulation under the Natural Gas Policy Act of 1978 (NGPA)-the most visible problem being the existence of increased prices amid a glut of deliverable supplies-concern has mounted about whether the natural gas pipeline industry will perform in a socially efficient manner in the long run when field prices are completely decontrolled. In addition to transporting natural gas from the field to the city-gate, interstate natural gas pipeline companies have traditionally performed two functions. Granted private carrier status by the Natural Gas Act of 1938 (NGA), they both purchase gas shipments in upstream markets and resell them in downstream markets as well as match up gas producers who have available supply with distribution companies and wholesale end-users (direct industrial consumers and electric utilities) who have unfilled demand. In other words, as private carriers gas pipelines not only provide a gas transmission service but also assume the twin roles of gas merchandiser and broker.
Estimating Hourly Electric Load with Generalized Least Square Procedures
Authors: Woo Chi-Keung , Hanser Philip , Toyama Nate
Published: May 2011

Although electricity demand receives much attention in the empiri- cal literature (see Taylor (1975) and EPRI (1982b) for excellent surveys on the topic), hourly load demand analysis has only recently begun. Notable contributions are a series of studies sponsored by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI (1977. 1979a, 1979b, 1981a, 19816. 1982a) and Platt (1983)). These studies estimate load curve models for regions of the United States. Unfortunately, from a utility perspective, the empirical results presented in these studies are not directly applicable. Further, because the data used in these studies are not generally available at the geographic level of a utility service area, applying their methodology is problematic. This paper presents a practical method for an electric utility to produce an hourly load curve model similar in overall framework to these studies. Our procedure is innovative in that it produces statistically efficient estimates, which the above papers do not. We also demonstrate a method that uses supplementary forecasts to enhance the forecasting performance of the hourly load model.
Long-Term Versus Short-Term Costs of Electricity Supply Interruptions: A Cautionary Note
Authors: Lewin Peter , Parsons Steve G.
Published: May 2011

Increasing attention has been given in recent years to the valuation of reliability in the supply of electricity. It is peculiar in the use of the terms that the value of reliability is equivalent to the cost of unreliability. In attempting to identify and measure this cost, researchers have drawn a distinction between different types of cost, particularly short- and long-term costs. In this paper, we examine this distinction to clarify what may be a source of confusion.
Modeling Energy Demand: The Choice Between Input and Output Energy Measures
Authors: Berndt E. R. , Watkins G. C.
Published: May 2011

Analysis of factors affecting various types of energy demand has been the focus of a large number of studies in the last decade. One common point of agreement is that the demand for any fuel is tied closely to the technical, engineering, and thermodynamic characteristics of the energy-using capital or appliance stock.
Seasonal and Regional Residential Electricity Demand
Authors: Garbacz Christopher
Published: May 2011

Following the seminal work of McFadden. Puig, and Kirschner (1977) and the general availability of national microdata sets, residential energy demand studies have been conducted for electricity, natural gas, fuel oil. LP gas, and wood (see Garbacz, 1984, 1985). Using the National Interim Energy Consumption Survey (NIECS) data, Garbacz (1984) developed a three-equation model (demand, price, and appliance stock) to estimate national electricity demand using two-stage least squares (2SLS) for house-holds by month. This study builds on the previous work to estimate elasticities by month and by region. It is hypothesized that elasticities vary substantially between the heating and cooling seasons. Previous work by Acton, Mitchell, and Sohiberg (1980); Parti and Parti (1980); Archibald, Finifter, and Moody (1982); Murray et al. (1978); and Garbacz (1984) supports this. Houthakker (1980), Halvorsen (1978), and Murray et al. (1978) also have found differences in elasticities by region.
Service Reliability and the Optimal Interruptible Rate Option in Residential Electricity Pricing
Authors: Woo Chi-Keung , Toyama Nate
Published: May 2011

Recent research on electricity pricing extends the traditional peak load pricing problem in many directions. Some notable studies include the time-of-use (TOU) papers by Crew and Kleindorfer (1976, 1978); the cycling analysis by Dansby (1977); the Demand Subscription Service (DSS) studies by Tschirhart and Jen (1979), Panzar and Sibley (1978), and Marchand (1974). Central to these papers is the role played by demand uncertainty in determining the optimal electricity rate structure and capacity planning. With the exception of Tschirhart and Jen and Marchand, these papers do not directly address the question of service reliability from the customer's perspective. Moreover, the supply-side uncertainty caused by random plant outages (as indicated by Chao, 1983) is largely ignored. Finally, these studies, though elegant and innovative, do not analyze the problem of residential rate options, which recently have gained considerable popularity in the United States, especially in California.
Missing Survey Data in End-Use Energy Models: An Overlooked Problem
Authors: Swanson David A.
Published: May 2011

Although missing data are found in all types of data sets, surveys are particularly prone to produce data sets in which values of some respondent variables are missing (see, e.g., Cochran, 1977; Ericson, 1967; Kalton, 1983; and Hutcheson and Prather, 1977). Survey data collected for end-use energy demand models are no exception; high frequencies of nonresponse occur for many variables. This issue is, however, generally disregarded in the end-use literature, and analysts working with end-use models often discard cases in which values are missing for variables required by their models (see e.g., U.S. Government, 1983; Pacific Gas and Electric, 1983; Hirst and Carney, 1978; and EPRI, 1977). Discarding cases with missing values has important consequences. It implicitly assumes that the missing values occur randomly rather than systematically. If, however, missing values do not occur randomly, discarding cases with missing values will result in misspecified models and biased forecasts. Furthermore, by discarding cases, the detail appropriate for a given end-use model can be lost.
International Energy Workshop: Oil Price Projections
Authors: Manne Alan S. , Schrattenholzer Leo , Rowley Jennifer L.
Published: May 2011

This paper analyzes the distribution of long-term oil price projections submitted by participants in the January 1986 International Energy Workshop (IEW) poll. Wide differences of opinion are observed between individual respondents.
Cost Shares, Own, and Cross-Price Elasticities in U.S. Manufacturing with Disaggregated Energy Inputs
Authors: Moghimzadeh Mahmood , Kymn Kern O.
Published: May 2011

Our purpose is to estimate cost shares and own-land cross-price elasticities of the demand for factors in the production of manufacturing output. To achieve more precise estimates than those of previous researchers, we do not consider energy a single unified input. It is disaggregated instead into electric and nonelectric energy. The period considered spans the years 1954 to 1977. The following brief review of the literature outlines the background. Hudson and Jorgenson (1974) studied the demand for manufacturing production factors. They subsequently estimated the own- and cross-price elasticities of demand for the various factors by applying a translog cost function at the industry level. Their model included capital, labor, energy, and nonenergy inputs.
Long-run Adjustment to Alternative Levels of Reliability in Electricity Supply
Authors: Gilmer Robert W. , Mack Richard S.
Published: May 2011

Most studies of reliable electricity supplies have been artful efforts to quantify the benefits of additional electric generating capacity (Webb; Andersson and Taylor). Outages are treated as the result of insufficient capacity, and outage costs are weighed against whatever outlays are necessary to bring new generation into the electrical system. Given the emphasis on long-run supply in the ultimate usefulness of these studies, research has focused to a remarkable degree on the cost of individual outage events (Sanghvi, 1982). The customer's long-run response to a change in reliability levels has rarely received much attention, and when it has been considered it has been treated as an analytically difficult or intractable problem. Our purpose is to show that the economics of long-run adjustments to a different level of reliability are in fact quite simple and easily incorporated into standard cost/benefit studies.
On Straw Men, Free Parameters, and Validating Allocation Functions: A Reply to Reister
Authors: Smith Kerry V. , Hill Lawrence J.
Published: May 2011

Reducing an involved logical argument (or a detailed empirical study) to its essential elements usually makes it more accessible and can help us focus future research. Reister's comment on our paper purports to provide such a summary of our findings. Indeed, it might appear that he has demonstrated that our conclusions were obvious from the outset. Unfortunately his comment is an example of why we began this response by noting that simplification usually (rather than always) improves understanding. In this case it has led to incorrect conclusions.
Productivity Growth and Technical Change in the Generation of Electricity
Authors: Joskow Paul L.
Published: May 2011

No student of the electric power industry and its regulation can help but be troubled by the industry's recent historical record on productivity and technical change. For many years the electric power industry was one of the leading sectors of the economy in terms of productivity growth and technological innovation. This is no longer true. By almost every measure, productivity growth and technical change have virtually ceased in the past decade (or even decreased, by some estimates).
Optimal Choice of R&D Strategy for Enhanced Recovery from Petroleum Reservoirs
Authors: Stenslan Gunnar , Nystad Arild N.
Published: May 2011

Off the coast of Norway is a huge, undeveloped petroleum reservoir. The exploitation of this resource is a challenge to the oil industry both because of its specific reservoir geology and its deep water location. One of the decisions that must be made regarding this field is the choice of the injection method. Our report discusses decision rules for the choice of R&D strategies for methods of supplementary recovery.
Oil Demand Elasticities in Nigeria
Authors: Dayo Felix B. , Adegbulugbe Anthony O.
Published: May 2011

Crude oil, which was first discovered in Nigeria in 1956 by the Shell-BP Development Company, has contributed significantly to the country's economic development. The exploitation of this resource transformed Nigeria's balance of trade from chronic deficits to huge surpluses (especially during the early-to-mid 1970s). This occurred as a result of the increase in the volume as well as the value of crude oil during this period. However, the surplus started to decline in the mid-1970s due to a combination of increased imports (resulting from the oil-boom mentality that had developed) and reduced crude oil exports (caused by the downward trend in world economic situations). By late 1977 the country again had a deficit on visible trade.
Separating the Changing Composition of U.S. Manufacturing Production from Energy Efficiency Improvements: A Divisia Index Approach
Authors: Boyd G. , McDonald J. F. , Ross M. , Hanson D. A.
Published: May 2011

The demand for energy is normally broken down into five sectors: industry, utilities, the residential sector, the commercial sector, and transportation. Industry is the most heterogeneous of these with manufacturing accounting for about 80 percent of total industrial energy demand. Manufacturing is itself a very heterogeneous collection of production activities. As defined by the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) method of the U.S. Department of Commerce, there were 448 manufacturing sectors in 1972.
Energy and Economic Effects of Utility Financial Incentive Programs: The BPA Residential Weatherization Program
Authors: Hirst Eric
Published: May 2011

Many electric utilities offer their residential customers substantial financial incentives (low-interest loans or rebates) to install energy-efficient equipment and building retrofit measures (Stern, Berry, and Hirst 1985). For example, the Tennessee Valley Authority gave zero-interest loans to almost 500,000 households between 1977 and 1985; these loans average almost $1000 each for installation of retrofit measures (TVA 1985). Pacific Gas and Electric Company spent almost $100 million on administrative and debt service costs for its residential retrofit loan program, in which about 500,000 households participated (California PLC 1984).
Responses to Energy Efficiency Regulations
Authors: Bold Frederick C.
Published: May 2011

Despite all the thunder and commotion surrounding energy usage and regulation, there is little comprehensive and systematic theoretical analysis of some of the most common forms of energy usage regulation. These regulations can take a variety of forms such as quantity rationing, price controls, tax incentives, building codes, and efficiency standards. With respect to legislated efficiency standards, some progress is made in a series of articles appearing in The Energy Journal concerned with the effect of compulsory efficiency improvements on energy consumption. The first is J. Daniel Khazzoom's "Economic Implications of Mandated Efficiency in Standards for Household Appliances." This article is followed by comments and extensions by Michael Einhorn, by Stanley M. Besen with Leland J. Johnson, and by a response to Besen and Johnson by Khazzoom and Sanford Miller. A second article by Einhorn deals with the differences in the Khazzoom and Besen-Johnson approaches.
Thermal and Economic Measures of Energy Use: Differences and Implications
Authors: Jean-Thomas Bernard , Cauchon Pierre
Published: May 2011

Statistical agencies often report aggregate energy use by expressing different energy types on a common basis with thermal conversion factors. Before the energy crisis of the 1970s Turvey and Nobay (1965) indicated some pitfalls associated with thermal conversion factors in the analysis of aggregate energy use. This point has been emphasized again by Berndt (1978). More recently Hong (1983) compared two Divisia indexes of energy use-one of the expenditure shares and the other with thermal shares-and he found the two indexes behaved differently in the United States from 1950 to 1978. The relationship between the relative prices of energy types, which change over time, and their relative thermal contents, which are usually taken to be constant, explains why these two measures of energy use follow different paths.
Uncertainty Analysis of the IEA/ORAU C02 Emissions Model
Authors: Reilly J. M. , Edmonds J. A. , Gardner R. H. , Brenkert A. L.
Published: May 2011

Future levels of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are an important determinant of the severity and timing of global warming due to elevated levels of radiatively active (greenhouse) gases in the atmosphere. Many studies have addressed this issue,. These include Rotty (1977), Keeling and Bacastow (1977), Siegenthaler and Oeschger (1978), JASON (1979), Marchetti (1980), IIASA in Haefele (1981), Lovins (1981), Hamm (1982), Nordhaus and Yohe (1983), and Reister and Rotty (1983). Ausubel and Nordhaus (1983) provide a recent critical review of emissions forecasts with a focus on methodological development, citing the advance in methodological sophistication leading to improvements in understanding long-term patterns of energy use and their relationship to CO2 emissions.
Optimum Depletion of Oil Resources in a Developing Country
Authors: Parhizgari Ali M.
Published: May 2011

The majority of resource-based developing countries finance a high percentage of their development efforts through extraction and export of nonrenewable natural resources. Though the extraction and export policies of these countries might be subject to noneconomic international causes and effects (i.e., those that do not easily yield to empirical analysis (Mikdashi, 1976)), the need for each country to plan and implement an optimal and consistent policy in this regard is already well established (Meier 1984; Kemp and Long 1984; Neary and Wijnbergen 1986).
Energy for Transport in Developing Countries
Authors: Dunkerley Joy , Hoch Irving
Published: May 2011

Transportation is the major market for liquid fuels in many developing countries, accounting on average for one half of total consumption. Unlike the other end-use sectors, possibilities for fuel switching in transport are limited, at least for the time being. Given the existing stock of transport equipment, virtually the entire increase in consumption of transport fuels for the next 15 years or so will involve petroleum products.
Utilities and Cogeneration: Some Regulatory Problems
Authors: Zweifel Peter , Beck Konstantin
Published: May 2011

Cogeneration-a technology which uses waste heat for electricity generation-has been known for over one hundred years. To be economically viable, it requires that excess electricity be fed into a grid for distribution. In the U.S., utilities have been legally obliged by PURPA legislation (Public Utility Regulation Practices Act) to put their grids at the disposal of electricity suppliers in industry. Nonetheless, cogeneration has recently accounted for no more than 14 percent of electricity used in industry (Anandalingam, 1985). Thus, PURPA legislation may not be enough to open markets to cogenerators.
The IEA Oil-Sharing Plan: Who Shares with Whom?
Authors: Henderson David R.
Published: May 2011

The United States and twenty other countries are all members of the International Energy Agency (TEA). The members' have an agreement which requires' them to share their oil with each other if the oil supplies to the members fall substantially. Both the formula for allocating oil among members and the size of the reduction in oil supplies that triggers the sharing formula are predetermined.
Energy Demand Modeling with Noisy Input-Output Variables
Authors: Kher Lov Kumar , Sioshansi Fereidoon P. , Sorooshian Soroosh
Published: May 2011

One of the most important challenges facing energy analysts is to predict future energy consumption levels. The volatility of energy prices following the 1973 oil embargo and the unexpected elasticity of demand to higher prices caught most energy forecasters off the mark (see Energy Daily, "How It Didn't Turn Out: The Forecasters Who Failed," 1986). The same can be said of electricity forecasters who consistently overshot growth rates for over a decade despite compelling signs to lower their projections (Uhler and Nelson, 1985), (see Figure 1).
Energy Saving Resulting from the Adoption of More Efficient Appliances
Authors: Khazzoom Daniel J.
Published: May 2011

In last November's IAEE meetings, Amory Lovins reported estimates of energy saving that will result from the adoption of more efficient appliances. This note addresses three questions related to the subject. 1. The realism of Lovins' estimate of energy saving. 2. The way these estimates fare when juxtaposed against the price elasticity of demand used by Lovins. 3. The light my recent empirical results shed on the magnitude of energy saving we can realistically expect. In the process, the note touches on the polar opposite policies that Lovins has been advocating.
Defending the Price of Oil
Authors: Penrose Dr. Edith
Published: May 2011

Potential surpluses of oil have been around for a very long time; as a consequence, the defense of prices has always required continually renewed vigilance. It is true that there have been short periods of temporary scarcity and, from time to time, fears of an imminent long-run scarcity, as in the 1920s in the United States and again today. But for at least 60 years, the oil industry seems to have been more concerned with maintaining prices against the pressure of surpluses. "Competition" was always the scapegoat, for in spite of the strong monopolistic elements in the organization of the industry, gluts were the direct result of the behavior of oil companies as they competed to discover and control crude oil production and markets.
Energy Planning in Taiwan: An Alternative Approach Using a Multiobjective Programming and Input-Output Model
Authors: Hsu George J. Y. , Leung PingSun , Ching Chauncey T. K.
Published: May 2011

Faced with limited energy resources and soaring energy demand arising from rapid economic growth, Taiwan has to import a substantial amount of energy. In 1983, 88 percent of its total energy requirement (35.54 million kiloliters of oil equivalent) was imported. Since this heavy dependence will likely continue to increase for the next decade, energy economic planning in Taiwan is a critical issue. A major concern has been how "to achieve a certain economic growth rate with a minimum consumption of energy" (Kuo, 1983, p. 312).
The Effect of load Management upon Transmission and Distribution Costs: A Case Study
Authors: Einhorn Michael A.
Published: May 2011

A new era may be emerging for the strategists and decision makers who are responsible for reliably and economically supplying electricity to America's homes and businesses. In the last decade, fuel shortages, price hikes, record-high interest rates, and a new environmentalist awareness have led the nation's utility planners to use conservation and load management strategies in order to curtail their customers' demands for energy and plant capacity. Undertaken primarily to reduce requirements for future generation capacity, load management strategies generally succeeded in reducing system peak load. However, utility planners often implemented these strategies with little regard to the effects upon their company's transmission and distribution (T&D) capacity requirements.
The Residential Demand for Electricity in the TVA Power Service Area: Appliance Consumption from 1979 to 1986
Authors: Jackson Gary L.
Published: May 2011

This paper compares appliance-specific electricity consumption at five points in time from 1979 to 1986. One of the major findings is that residential customers have reduced space heating electricity consumption substantially while space cooling consumption has remained relatively stable. Appliance-specific estimates of electricity consumption for seven other appliances are also provided. Impacts of six major factors affecting appliance electricity consumption (price, income, age, weather, living quarters' size, and the number of people) are estimated.
Should CNP Impacts Preclude Oil Tariffs?
Authors: Huntington Hillard G.
Published: May 2011

The oil security issue has been pushed once again to the forefront of energy policy deliberations. While a number of different policy options are being considered and discussed, none has generated as much heated debate as the imposition of an oil import tariff in the United States (see Broadman and Hogan, 1986; U.S. Department of Energy, 1987.)
Regional Economic and Energy Prospects in the Developing Countries: Application of the PREDESS Model
Authors: Lepinoy Bertrand
Published: May 2011

The PREDESS model (Previsions Regionales de l'Economie et de la Demande d'Energie par Source et par Secteur) analyzes the economies of the developing countries by region and sector. It integrates the dissymmetry of the world economy into the productive process, with the industrialized countries acting as the traditional driving force. An energy model, also constructed by region and sector, is linked to the world economic model. It includes both commercial and traditional energy sources and stresses their development and substitution possibilities. The model pays special attention to the problems of traditional energy sources (such as deforestation) and analyzes the consequences of replacing traditional with commercial sources.
I. Reality Says No
Authors: Tussing Arlon R. , Van Vactor Samuel A.
Published: May 2011

I. Reality Says No, Arlon R. Tussing and Samuel A. Van Vactor II. The Numbers Say Yes, Harry G. Broadman and William W. Hogan III. The Numbers Say No, Dale M. Nesbitt and Thomas Y. Choi Many oil industry spokesmen who pleaded for a free market in the era of regulation are now urging the opposite: federal protection from low-cost imported oil. It is ironic that some economists should find merit in these arguments, particularly now that the very idea of free trade is facing the most serious assault in decades.
The World Oil Market: An Examination Using Small-Scale Models
Authors: Green David Jay
Published: May 2011

This article presents the results of a series of exercises in the use of small-scale models to explain the spot price of crude oil. Small scale modeling-the use of a limited number of equations-involves a number of disadvantages: many interesting questions will have to be ignored and often a sense of realism may be sacrificed. However, small-scale models are an essential part of economic research. Compared to large, multi-equation models, small-scale models are often transparent-causal relations are clearly visible. In addition, small-scale models can often be easily updated and reexamined in the light of new information or assumptions. This is particularly important in policy-making when time and clear communication are at a premium.
Energy Conservation versus Supply Strategies: Implications for Industrial Policy
Authors: Bourgeois Bernard , Criqui Patrick , Percebois Jacques
Published: May 2011

The commercial and industrial sectors consume over half of the United States' electricity. Several studies have indicated that this consumption can be reduced by as much as 40 to 50 percent through cost-effective energy conservation (e.g., Dubin, 1977; Taussig, 1978). Examples of conservation actions include installation of low voltage lamps, more effective placement of lights, electronic controls for air conditioners and lights, evaporative precoolers on air conditioners and refrigerators, heat recovery systems, and so on. These actions have been found to offer, on average, exceptionally good rates of return, both to the firms that take the actions and from a social perspective (Train and Ignelzi, 1987).
A Welfare Measure of a New Type of Energy Assistance Program
Authors: Costello Kenneth W.
Published: May 2011

The sharp increase in utility rates since the 1970s has inflicted great hardship on low-income households. For many, paying their utility bills means sacrificing the purchase of other commodities essential to their economic well-being.' Another symptom of this problem is exhibited by the increased number of low-income people whose utility service has been cut off. Energy assistance programs have been instituted to cope with this serious problem. The major objectives of these programs are: (a) to make energy more affordable to the poor, thereby reducing the number of service disconnections, and (b) to limit how much the poor must pay for energy so that more funds are available for purchasing other essential commodities.
Comparative Energy Policy: The Economics of Nuclear Power in Japan and the United States
Authors: Navarro Peter
Published: May 2011

Over the next several decades, Japan and the United States will pursue dramatically different nuclear power strategies. In the United States, no new reactors have been ordered since 1978, and no U.S. utility is seriously planning any new construction. In contrast, Japanese utilities aggressively continue to plan, order, and build new nuclear plants, and the Japanese government and utility industry are committed to increasing Japan's nuclear reliance from 26 percent of total generation to 49 percent by the year 2010.
The Economics of International Oil Sharing
Authors: Horwich George , Weimer David Leo
Published: May 2011

Fifteen years after the 1973-74 oil embargo, two of the programs designed by consuming countries to cope with oil disruptions are still in place. One is the strategic stockpiles of oil owned or controlled by the governments of the industrial nations. The other is the oil-sharing plan of the International Energy Agency. In fact, both programs received their impetus from the IEA, which was formed in 1974 by the United States, Canada, most Western European countries (except France), Japan, Australia, and New Zealand. The TEA requires signatory countries to hold oil stocks equal to ninety days' imports of oil (interpreted generally as an amount over and above normal working stocks). This has largely been accomplished. Oil sharing, however, is to be imposed only in the event of oil-supply cutoffs of 7 percent or more to any individual member or the group as a whole. Although petitioned several times by individual countries, sharing has never been implemented. Neither has the program been systematically evaluated by a task force outside the IEA. This is the purpose of the study which this paper draws upon (Horwich and Weimer, eds., 1988).
Integrated Energy Planning in India: A Modeling Approach
Authors: Pachauri R. K. , Srivastava Leena
Published: May 2011

The economic planning process in India can broadly be broken up into two steps: the building up of Five Year Plans and the specification of Annual Plans. Several planning models were used to arrive at a balanced allocation of resources for attaining the objectives and targets of growth and social welfare postulated in each Five Year Plan.
Mitigation Strategies and Costs of Climate Protection: The Effects of ETC in the Hybrid Model MIND
Authors: Edenhofer Ottmar , Lessmann Kai , Bauer Nico
Published: May 2011

MIND is a hybrid model incorporating several energy related sectors in an endogenous growth model of the world economy. This model structure allows a better understanding of the linkages between the energy sectors and the macro-economic environment. We perform a sensitivity analysis and parameter studies to improve the understanding of the economic mechanisms underlying opportunity costs and the optimal mix of mitigation options. Parameters representing technological change that permeates the entire economy have a strong impact on both the opportunity costs of climate protection and on the optimal mitigation strategies e.g. parameters in the macro-economic environment and in the extraction sector. Sector-specific energy technology parameters change the portfolio of mitigation options but have only modest effects on opportunity costs e.g. learning rate of the renewable energy technologies. We conclude that feedback loops between the macro-economy and the energy sectors are crucial for the determination of opportunity costs and mitigation strategies.
Induced Technological Change: Exploring its Implications for the Economics of Atmospheric Stabilization: Synthesis Report from the innovation Modeling Comparison Project
Authors: Edenhofer Ottmar , Lessmann Kai , Kemfert Claudia , Grubb Michael , Köhler Jonathan
Published: May 2011

This paper summarizes results from ten global economy-energy-environment models implementing mechanisms of endogenous technological change (ETC). Climate policy goals represented as different CO2 stabilization levels are imposed, and the contribution of induced technological change (ITC) to meeting the goals is assessed. Findings indicate that climate policy induces additional technological change, in some models substantially. Its effect is a reduction of abatement costs in all participating models. The majority of models calculate abatement costs below 1 percent of present value aggregate gross world product for the period 2000-2100. The models predict different dynamics for rising carbon costs, with some showing a decline in carbon costs towards the end of the century. There are a number of reasons for differences in results between models; however four major drivers of differences are identified. First, the extent of the necessary CO2 reduction which depends mainly on predicted baseline emissions, determines how much a model is challenged to comply with climate policy. Second, when climate policy can offset market distortions, some models show that not costs but benefits accrue from climate policy. Third, assumptions about long-term investment behavior, e.g. foresight of actors and number of available investment options, exert a major influence. Finally, whether and how options for carbon-free energy are implemented (backstop and end-of-the-pipe technologies) strongly affects both the mitigation strategy and the abatement costs.
Assessment of C02 Reductions and Economic Impacts Considering Energy-Saving Investments
Authors: Masui Toshihiko , Hanaoka Tatsuya , Hikita Saeko , Kainuma Mikiko
Published: May 2011

Using a global dynamic optimization model that includes a notion of endogenous energy-saving investments, economic impacts and energy-system changes are assessed under several policy cases where CO2 concentration is stabilized at the 450, 500, and 550 ppm levels by the year 2100. The effect of increased investments in energy-saving technologies on energy efficiency is derived exogenously from results of the AIM/Enduse model applied to Japan, then endogenized in the global dynamic optimization model.

We find that with diffusion of energy-saving technologies, GDP loss during the 21st century falls from 2.5% to 2.1% in the 450 ppm case. The impact is small for the 550 ppm case, however, because a shift to low-carbon-intensive energies such as gas and renewable energies does not occur to a significant extent under this target.
The Dynamics of Carbon and Energy Intensity in a Model of Endogenous Technical Change
Authors: Bosetti Valentina , Carraro Carlo , Galeotti Marzio
Published: May 2011

In recent years, a large number of papers have explored different attempts to endogenise technical change in climate models. This recent literature has emphasized that four factors - two inputs and two outputs - should play a major role when modeling technical change in climate models. The two inputs are R&D investments and Learning by Doing, the two outputs are energy-saving and fuel switching. Indeed, R&D investments and Learning by Doing are the main drivers of a climate-friendly technical change that eventually affect both energy intensity and fuel-mix. In this paper, we present and discuss an extension of the FEEM-RICE model in which these four factors are explicitly accounted for. In our new specification of endogenous technical change, an index of energy technical change depends on both Learning by Researching and Learning by Doing. This index enters the equations defining energy intensity (i.e. the amount of carbon energy required to produce one unit of output) and carbon intensity (i.e. the level of carbonization of primarily used fuels). This new specification is embodied in the RICE 99 integrated assessment climate model and then used to generate a baseline scenario and to analyze the relationship between climate policy and technical change. Sensitivity analysis is performed on different key parameters of the energy module in order to obtain crucial insights into the relative importance of the main channels through which technological changes affects the impact of human activities on climate.
Promoting Renewable Energy in Europe: A Hybrid Computable General Equilibrium Approach
Authors: Böhringer Christoph , Löschel Andreas
Published: May 2011

We illustrate the use of a large-scale computable general equilibrium model to investigate the economic and environmental effects of renewable energy promotion within the European Union. Our hybrid model incorporates the technological explicitness of bottom-up energy system models for the electricity sector while production possibilities in other sectors are described at an aggregate level through top-down constant-elasticities-of-substitution (transformation) functions. The discrete activity analysis of technology options within conventional top-down computable general equilibrium models is possible when adopting the so-called mixed complementarity problem approach - a flexible mathematical representation of market equilibrium conditions which accommodates weak inequalities and complementary slackness.
Experiments with a Hybrid CGE-MARKAL Model1
Authors: Schäfer Andreas , Jacoby Henry D.
Published: May 2011

This paper summarizes the main features of a linked CGE-MARKAL model system capable of simulating the macro-level economy and micro-level technology detail of the transport sector. Emphasis is given to issues of calibration of such a hybrid system, with references provided to already published papers based on this research for coverage of other details.
Multi-Gas Emission Reduction for Climate Change Policy: An Application of Fund
Authors: Tol Richard S.J.
Published: May 2011

The costs of greenhouse gas emission reduction with abatement of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are investigated using the FUND model. The central policy scenario keeps anthropogenic radiative forcing below 4.5 Wm2. If CO2 emission reduction were the only possibility to meet this target, the net present value of consumption losses would be $45 trillion; with abatement of the other gases added, costs fall to $33 trillion. The bulk of these costs savings can be ascribed to reductions of nitrous oxide. Because nitrous oxide emission reduction is so much more important than methane emission reduction, the choice of equivalence metric between the greenhouse gases does not matter much. Sensitivity analyses show that the shape of the cost curves for CH4 and N2O emission reductions matter, and that the inclusion of sulphate aerosols makes policy targets substantially harder to achieve. The costs of emission reduction vary greatly with the choice of stabilisation target. A target of 4.5 Wm-2 is not justified by our current knowledge of the damage costs of climate change.
Impacts of Multi-gas Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Emission Abatement: Insights from a Partial Equilibrium Model
Authors: Criqui Patrick , Russ Peter , Deybe Daniel
Published: May 2011

The Version 5 of the POLES model has been developed for the assessment of multi-gas emission reduction strategies. Abatement options have been introduced for all non-CO2 GHGs in the Kyoto Basket and, for the agricultural sector, Marginal Abatement Cost curves have been derived from the new AGRIPOL model. Combined with an international emission permit scheme that is based on the Soft Landing approach, an emission profile respecting climate targets of 550 ppmv provides a relatively soft constraint case for developing countries. The multi-gas analyses first of all demonstrate the relevance of the approach as changing from a CO2-only to a multi-gas strategy either allows to increase total abatement of 25% for the same Marginal Abatement Cost or to decrease the MAC of approximately 30% for the same total abatement. Not surprisingly however, the impacts on world demand and primary fuel mix are less pronounced in the multi-gas case. This is easily understandable as a counterpart for introducing more margins of freedom in the abatement effort.