bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A Schema-Based Approach to Modeling an African-American Racial Belief System
Authors: Allen Richard L. , Dawson Michael C. , Brown Ronald E.
Published: May 2006

We use a cognitive schema-based approach to model an African-American racial belief system, showing the content of racial belief systems in a national sample to be associated with the individual's degree of sodoeconomic status, religiosity, and exposure to black media. We find that African-Americans with a higher sodoeconomic status are less supportive of black political autonomy and that they feel themselves more distant from black masses and black elites than do those of lower socioeconomic status. Religiosity, while unrelated to black autonomy, strengthens closeness to black masses and black elites. Black television—and, to a much lesser degree, black print media—had a consistent impact on the racial belief system. We conclude by discussing the complexity of the African-American racial belief system and potential directions for future work.
Explaining Government Growth in the U.S. States
Authors: Garand James C.
Published: May 2006

Despite the explosive increase in the research program on government growth in recent years, little work has been done on government growth disaggregated to the subnational level. I examine the empirical validity of five competing models of government growth for the fifty U.S. states from 1945 to 1984: Wagner's Law, fiscal illusion, party control, bureau voting, and intergovernmental grant. Government size is defined in terms of state government spending as a proportion of total state economic output, with separate implicit price deflators being employed for the public and private sectors. Based on a longitudinal test of these competing models, the analysis uncovers strong empirical support for the bureau voting and intergovernmental grant models, moderately weak support for the Wagner's Law model, and virtually no support for the fiscal illusion and party control explanations. These findings have important implications for the study of government growth in general and, more specifically, in the states.
Is Opposition to Nuclear Energy an Ideological Critique?
Authors: Helm Charles J. , Rothman Stanley , Lichter S. Robert
Published: May 2006

In the June 1987 issue of this Review, Stanley Rothman and S. Robert Lichter offered evidence to support their argument that “the new environmental movement in the United States is partly a symbolic issue,” that elites in the news media and in public interest groups misrepresent the dangers of nuclear energy as a surrogate for more direct criticism of liberal capitalism in the United States. In this controversy, Charles J. Helm expresses skeptictem about the Rothman-Lichter line of argument; and they respond.
Fleeing the Iron Cage: Politics and Culture in the Thought of Max Weber
Authors: Scaff Lawrence A.
Published: May 2006

The problem of politics and culture emerged in European thought from Kierkegaard to Freud the encounter with modernity. In this paper I examine a major instance of that encounter in Weber's “science of culture” and his analysis of the cultural significance of capitalism. In Weber's work the most important and politically relevant responses to modern, subjectivist culture lie in attempts from within the ethical, aesthetic, erotic, and intellectualist life orders or value spheres to escape from the “iron cage” constructed by Western rationalism. I investigate the relative autonomy and paradoxical nature of these different attempts, and conclude with an explanation of Weber's choices with respect to the sphere of knowledge, or “science.”
The Individual Political Economy of Federal Tax Policy
Authors: Hawthorne Michael R. , Jackson John E.
Published: May 2006

Public policies are the product of conflicting demands within society. These demands are both collective in nature and the product of individual interests. Individuals must balance these conflicting interests in developing their policy preferences. We estimate the role of collective and individual interests in preference formation, using tax policy as a substantive example. Survey data are used to estimate the model for evaluations of several tax policies debated during consideration of the 1978 Tax Revenue Act. Our analysis indicates that individual preferences for tax policies are greatly affected by attitudes towards collective issues—particularly redistribution attitudes—and by self-interest considerations. We also find that aggregate variables measuring individuals' local economies have significant effects on symbolic and self-interest preferences.
Declarations of Independence: Arendt and Derrida on the Problem of Founding a Republic
Authors: Honig B.
Published: May 2006

Beginning with Hannah Arendt's depiction of the American Revolution and founding, I critically examine Arendt's reading of the Declaration of Independence, comparing it with Jacques Derrida's reading of (a draft of) the same document, in order to show that Arendt is careless in her easy dismissal of the declaration's essentialist moments. Derrida, it seems to me, has a better, more subtle appreciation of the both necessary and impossible role of essentialism in modern political theory and practice. I conclude, however, that Arendt nonetheless succeeds in theorizing a powerful and suggestive practice of political authority for modernity, a practice that is uniquely activist and appropriate for a democratic politics.
Nationalism Versus Ethnic Identity in Sub-Saharan Africa
Authors: Miles William F. S. , Rochefort David A.
Published: May 2006

Part and parcel of the conventional wisdom about rural publics in Africa is that populations on the periphery will accord ethnic solidarity greater significance than national consciousness. A survey of neighboring Hausa villages on different sides of the Niger-Nigeria boundary counters this myth. Probing issues of self-identity and ethnic affinity, we found that most Hausa villagers on the frontier did not place their Hausan ethnic identity above their national one as citizens of Nigeria or Niger and expressed greater affinity for non-Hausa cocitizens than for foreign Hausas. However, expressed attachments to ethnic, national, and other social identifications (such as religion) varied according to village: citizenship does make a difference in the political consciousness of villagers on the geographic margins of the state. More survey research in other transborder regions should shed further light on processes of state penetration and national integration in developing countries.
Polarity, the Offense-Defense Balance, and War
Authors: Hopf Ted
Published: May 2006

Bipolar systems are inherently more stable than multipolar configurations of power, Kenneth Waltz argues. His empirical justification for this conclusion relies on the multipolar systems that preceded the two world wars and the bipolar Cold War. The weakness of Waltz's argument is the small number of cases and the failure to consider alternative explanations for different levels of war in the three periods. In another historical period of both multi- and bipolarity—Europe from 1495 to 1559—I have found that polarity cannot account for the constant level of instability across a change in polarity in the system. Instead, the offense-defense balance, which includes the technical military balance, the cumulativity of power resources, and strategic beliefs, explains instability in the period. Drawing on this alternative theory, I reassess the high level of stability associated with the Cold War and speculate on the level of stability we can expect in the post-Cold War period.
A “Cognitive Miser” Theory of Cooperators Advantage
Authors: Orbell John , Dawes Robyn M.
Published: May 2006

We propose a new model of cooperators' advantage depending neither on supplementary incentives nor on cooperators' capacity to recognize, and play selectively with, other cooperators. It depends, rather, on players' making the play-no play decision by the heuristic of projecting their own “cooperate-defect” choices onto potential partners. Cooperators offer to play more often, and fellow cooperators will more often accept their offer. When certain boundary conditions are met, this results in a higher expected payoff for cooperators than for defectors. Empirical support for this heuristic is suggested by expectations data from related social dilemma experiments. Moreover, its use can be justified in Bayesean terms. Our model brings behavioral decision theory's “cognitive miser” paradigm to bear on interdisciplinary concern with the evolution of cooperative behavior and shows how, if other mechanisms provide a suitable “initial kick,” cooperation can evolve in the absence of iteration and in large, mobile societies.
Explaining New Deal Labor Policy
Authors: Skocpol Theda , Finegold Kenneth , Goldfield Michael
Published: May 2006

The National Labor Relations Act (NLRA) of 1935 represented a turning point in modern labor relations policy in the United States. In the December 1989 issue of thisReview, Michael Goldfield examined the effects of worker insurgency and radical organization on the enactment of the new labor law and rejected theories that emphasized the autonomy of the state from societal forces. In thisControversy, Theda Skocpol and Kenneth Finegold argue that the growing strength of liberal Democrats in Congress following the 1934 election and the failure of the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) as an economic recovery measure provided the most important causes for the passage of the NLRA in mid-1935. In response Goldfield argues that the results of the 1934 election were themselves influenced by the protest environment and that the passage of the NLRA was a foregone conclusion before the NIRA was struck down.
Differential Paths to Parity: A Study of the Contemporary Arms Race
Authors: Ward Michael Don
Published: May 2006

This article presents a model of arms expenditures and arms accumulation for the Soviet Union and United States from 1952 through 1978. It argues that contemporary superpowers do not react solely to the military budgets of one another in assessing the potential threat against which they must allocate military resources, i.e., in deciding upon the military budget. Rather, they respond primary to the relative balance of strategic and conventional military forces. A continuous time model of this process is developed and estimated. If one examines only the budgets of these two nations, it would appear that no race is occurring; rather, the Soviets are simply increasing their arms expenditures irrespective of what the United States does. However, when one examines the relative stocks of military capabilities, it appears that the USSR is racing to catch up to the United States. Finally, the dynamics governing arms competition between the United States and the USSR appear to be undergoing marked change.
Contributions, Lobbying, and Committee Voting in the U.S. House of Representatives
Authors: Wright John R.
Published: May 2006

Lobbying efforts and campaign contributions from coalitions of groups are used to explain representatives' voting decisions within the U.S. House Ways and Means and Agriculture Committees. Information about which groups worked together on two controversial issues and which representatives they lobbied was obtained through personal interviews and a mail survey of professional lobbyists. The analysis reveals that committee-level voting, particularly in the Ways and Means Committee, is best explained by the total number of lobbying contacts representatives received from groups on each side of the issue. Campaign contributions proved somewhat useful for explaining groups' lobbying patterns; but it appears to be lobbying, not money, that shapes and reinforces representatives' policy decisions.
Crime and Punishment: Are One-Shot, Two-Person Games Enough?
Authors: Bianco William T. , Ordeshook Peter C. , Tsebelis George
Published: May 2006

George Tsebelis argued in the March 1989 issue of this Review that decision theory is completely appropriate for analyzing games against nature but not appropriate for dissecting games against a rational opponent. Analysts who mistake a rational opponent for nature in constructing models commit what Tsebelis calls “the Robinson Crusoe fallacy.” In this controversy, William Bianco and Peter Ordeshook attack components of Tsebelis's argument. Bianco believes the model should be set up as an iterated, rather than a one-shot, game. Ordeshook feels that proper modeling cannot rely merely on two-person games and, in addition, he argues that Tsebelis commits some technical errors. In his reply, Tsebelis joins the issues and buttresses his original analysis.
Opportunity, Willingness, and the Diffusion of War
Authors: Siverson Randolph M. , Starr Harvey
Published: May 2006

Using borders and alliances as indicators of opportunity and willingness, respectively, we test the relationship between these and the diffusion of war during the 1816–1965 period. The impact of borders and alliances, individually and in combination, on the growth of ongoing war through “infectious” diffusion is shown through the comparison of baseline cases to cases where states at peace were exposed to various “treatments” comprised of warring border nations or warring alliance partners. The findings indicate that the probability of war diffusion is substantially increased as opportunities and willingness increase, particularly when such geographic and political factors are combined. The applicability of the opportunity and willingness framework to the study of war and diffusion is expanded and confirmed.
Nuclear Deterrence, Counterforce Strategies, and the Incentive to Strike First
Authors: Wagner R. Harrison
Published: May 2006

I use the theory of games to investigate issues about how to understand the use of nuclear counterforce strategies by the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War. The function of the counterforce strategies I model is not to enable a state confidently to launch a nuclear attack but to convince its adversary that the probability that it might do so as a last resort is greater than zero. The models allow one to investigate rational behavior when information is incomplete and there is an incentive to strike first, and therefore provide a way to explore controversies about the effect of counterforce strategies on both the credibility of extended deterrence and the possibility of inadvertent nuclear war. The models suggest, contrary to the claims of a number of writers, that the use of nuclear counterforce strategies is not necessarily inconsistent with rational behavior and provide some insight into the relation between counterforce strategies and brinkmanship models of deterrence.
Street-Level Political Controls Over Federal Bureaucracy
Authors: Scholz John T. , Twombly Jim , Headrick Barbara
Published: May 2006

Local partisan activities of legislators and their electoral coalitions systematically influence field office activities of federal bureaucracies in their electoral districts. This alternative to centralized democratic controls over bureaucracy occurs because discretionary policy decisions made at the field office level are influenced by local resources generated through partisan activities. Our study of county-level Occupational Safety and Health Administration enforcement in New York (1976–85) finds that county, state, and federal elected officials influence local enforcement activities, with liberal, Democratic legislators associated with more active enforcement. The county political parties are most influential for activities with the most local discretion, while members of Congress are more influential for local activities more readily controlled by the national office.
Measuring Value Change in Western Industrialized Societies: The Impact of Unemployment
Authors: Clarke Harold D. , Dutt Nitish
Published: May 2006

During the past two decades a four-item battery administered in biannual Euro-Barometer surveys has been used to measure changing value priorities in Western European countries. We provide evidence that the measure is seriously flawed. Pooled cross-sectional time series analyses for the 1976–86 period reveal that the Euro-Barometer postmaterialist-materialist value index and two of its components are very sensitive to short-term changes in economic conditions, and that the failure to include a statement about unemployment in the four-item values battery accounts for much of the apparent growth of postmaterialist values in several countries after 1980. The aggregate-level findings are buttressed by analyses of panel data from three countries.
Explaining Self-Defeating Foreign Policy Decisions: Interpreting Soviet Arms for Egypt in 1973 Through Process or Domestic Bargaining Models?
Authors: Anderson Richard D. , Hermann Margaret G. , Hermann Charles F.
Published: May 2006

How should we explain why a state sometimes adopts a foreign policy in one region that interferes with its concurrent policies elsewhere? In their article in the March 1989 issue of thisReview, Stewart, Hermann and Hermann proposed a three-level process model of foreign policy to explain such Soviet behavior towards Egypt in 1973. The analysis has continuing interest because it interprets the puzzling behavior as a manifestation of general problems of information processing in making foreign policy choices. Richard Anderson suggests that a two-level model of domestic bargaining better accounts for the causal sequence in Soviet-Egyptian relations and is in general more parsimonious. Margaret and Charles Hermann defend their substantive analysis and argue in any case for the complementarity of process and bargaining approaches.
Busy Voters, Agenda Control, and the Power of Information
Authors: Lupia Arthur
Published: May 2006

The correspondence between individual preferences and electoral outcomes is often affected by the existence of information asymmetries among electoral participants and the presence of individuals or groups who exercise some form of agenda control. While the effects of agenda control in political decision making are widely recognized, the effects of information asymmetries are not as well understood. Since information asymmetries are fundamental characteristics of most elections, a deep understanding of the correspondence between individual preferences and electoral outcomes requires a serious consideration of the “effects” of information. I develop a generalizable agenda control model that takes as given the observation that most voters are not naturally inclined to invest in political information. The model allows me to provide a dynamic description of how voters and political elites can adapt to the information problems that characterize political decision making. It also allows me to demonstrate the effect of these adaptations on electoral outcomes.
Representative Democracy and State Building in the Progressive Era
Authors: McDonagh Eileen Lorenzi
Published: May 2006

I draw upon state-building and legislative literatures to investigate how constituency-based representative institutions in the Progressive Era nationalized innovative public policies, thereby expanding the authority of the federal government as a component of the modern American state developing at that time. Using state-level referenda votes as measures of grassroots views, multivariate analysis discloses the impact of district opinion, as well as party and district economy, as major determinants of House roll call voting on landmark regulatory legislation authorizing federal intervention in market relationships, state suffrage qualifications, and life-style behaviors involving intoxicating beverages.
Theory and Practice: Alfarabi'sPlatoRevisited
Authors: Colmo Christopher
Published: May 2006

According to Leo Strauss, knowledge of the best way of life is crucial to political philosophy. In “Farabi'sPlato,” Strauss asks, assuming that the theoretical life can be known to be the best way of life, what is the status of this knowledge? Is the knowledge of the best way of life itself theoretical knowledge or practical knowledge? Without a coherent answer to this question, we cannot be certain that we know what we mean when we claim to know that philosophy is the best way of life. Strauss answers clearly the question about the status of the knowledge of the best way of life by affirming that it is practical, not theoretical, knowledge. For a variety of reasons, this answer is not persuasive in the form in which Strauss gives it.
The Illusion of Judicial Consensus: Zoning Decisions in the Maryland Court of Appeals
Authors: Sickels Robert J.
Published: May 2006

In some American courts of last resort, dissent is free and frequent; in others the judges vote unanimously for months, even for years at a time—a difference in judicial behavior which tempts inquiry and speculation. Although social scientists generally focus on dissenting courts and feed the human and scientific appetite for open controversy, the operation of every type of court is clarified by an examination of the ways and pitfalls of ostensible consensus among the judges. The purpose of this study of one supreme court and one body of law—zoning law in the Maryland Court of Appeals—is to demonstrate that under certain conditions unanimity in voting is illusory.
The Electoral Cycle and Institutional Sources of Divided Presidential Government
Authors: Shugart Matthew Soberg
Published: May 2006

Presidents often lack legislative majorities, but situations of opposition-party majorities (“divided government”) are much less common outside the United States. The president's party's share of seats tends to increase in early-term elections but decline in later elections. Thus opposition majorities often result after midterm elections. Opposition majorities rarely occur in elections held concurrently with the presidential election but are more likely to do so if legislators enjoy electoral independence from their parties due to features of electoral laws.
Life-Cycle Transitions and Political Participation: The Case of Marriage
Authors: Stoker Laura , Jennings M. Kent
Published: May 2006

We investigate the consequences of changes in marital status for political participation, treating marital status as marking points of continuity and transition in an individual's life history and marriage as a setting that fosters interaction and interdependence between marital partners. The analysis is based on panel and pseudopanel data from the 1965–82 socialization study of parents, offspring, and spouses. We find that marital transitions affect participation in four ways: (1) marital partners adjust their activity levels to become more like each other after marriage; (2) marital transitions of any type, especially marriage among younger people, tend to depress participation; (3) the overall effect of marriage, however, is powerfully mediated by the participation level of the partner; and (4) these mediation effects are greatest for political activities that involve collective efforts or draw upon the couple's joint resources.
Economic Crisis and Political Regime Change: An Event History Analysis
Authors: Gasiorowski Mark J.
Published: May 2006

I examine the effect of economic crises on domestic political regime change. Using a statistical technique known as event history analysis and a new data set that identifies all instances of regime change in the 97 largest Third World countries, I develop multivariate models of democratic breakdown and democratic transition. My main findings are that inflationary crises inhibited democratization from the 1950s through the early 1970s but may have facilitated it in the late 1980s and that recessionary crises facilitated democratic breakdown but had no effect on democratic transition throughout this period. The inflation findings—though not the recession findings—support the arguments of Karen Remmer and Samuel Huntington that the processes affecting democratization were very different in the 1980s than in earlier eras. A number of other explanatory variables emerge as significant determinants of regime change, providing support for several other contentions that have appeared in the literature.
Winning the Local Vote: The Effectiveness of Constituency Campaign Spending in Great Britain, 1983–1992
Authors: Pattie Charles J. , Johnston Ronald J. , Fieldhouse Edward A.
Published: May 2006

Much recent analysis of British politics has assumed, explicitly or implicitly, that constituency campaigns have no impact upon an electorate that draws on an increasingly nationalized media for its information. We employ data on constituency campaign spending to challenge this interpretation. Local party campaigners are rational in their use of funds, spending most in seats where the competition is close and least where there is little hope of winning. What is more, campaign spending is clearly associated with voting, increasing support for the spending party and decreasing support for its rivals. Contrary to the accepted wisdom, local campaign spending can result in important shifts in the vote. However, local campaigning seems to be of much more value to challengers than to incumbents.
Dynamics of Cosponsorship
Authors: Kessler Daniel , Krehbiel Keith
Published: May 2006

Electoral-connection theories of legislative politics view bill cosponsorship as low-cost position taking by rational legislators who communicate with target audiences (e.g., constituents) external to the legislature. Legislative signaling games suggest a view of bill cosponsorship in which early cosponsors attempt to communicate to target audiences (e.g., the median voter) within the legislature. Using data from the 103rd U.S. House of Representatives, we show that the timing of legislators' cosponsorship decisions are more supportive of cosponsorship as intralegislative signaling than as extralegislative position taking. First, policy extremists on both sides of the political spectrum are more likely than moderates to be initial endorsers of legislative initiatives. Second, extremist-moderate differences diminish over the course of bill histories.
History, Historiography, and Political Science: Multiple Historical Records and the Problem of Selection Bias
Authors: Lustick Ian S.
Published: May 2006

Social scientists who use history as a laboratory for theory development use the work of historians to construct background narratives which can then be coded according to theoretically relevant categories. Yet, virtually no attention has been paid to how these historical monographs are to be chosen. On most periods and themes of interest available accounts differ, not only substantively but also with respect to the implicit theories and conceptual frameworks used to establish salience or produce commonsensical explanations. Unself-conscious use of historical monographs thus easily results in selection bias. Social scientists are bound to be more attracted to and convinced by accounts that accord with the expectations about events contained in the concepts they deploy and the theories they seek to test. Consideration of recent developments in historiographical theory supports the argument that responsible techniques for using historical sources are available, but they require understanding the extent to which patterns within historiography, rather than “History,” must be the direct focus of investigation and explanation. Such an approach has the added advantage of helping to generate historically based studies where observations or cases outnumber variables.
Patricide and the Plot ofThe Prince: Cesare Borgia and Machiavelli's Italy
Authors: Scott John T. , Sullivan Vickie B.
Published: May 2006

An understanding of Machiavelli's assessment of Cesare Borgia inThe Princeis essential for interpreting his view of politics, but the ambiguity of that assessment has led to vastly different conclusions about Machiavelli's political teaching and Cesare's significance. We approach Machiavelli's ultimate intentions through a consideration of his more immediate concern for Italy. Machiavelli's great interest in Cesare and his criticism of this potential hero stem from the historical context of an Italy divided due to the Church. Cesare possessed—yet squandered—an opportunity to rid Italy of the evils plaguing it by killing his father, Pope Alexander, and by eliminating the College of Cardinals. Machiavelli's suggested denouement to the plot ofThe Princeis an assault on the ecclesiastical power. He invites his reader to contemplate the vulnerability of the Church and to act where Cesare and others shrank. Machiavelli ultimately counsels us to break our reliance on God or fortune and thus create the conditions for a reinvigorated civil life.
The Determinants of Industry Political Activity, 1978–1986
Authors: Grier Kevin B. , Munger Michael C. , Roberts Brian E.
Published: May 2006

While the allocation of interest group monies to specific politicians has been extensively studied, little is known about the factors that determine of the overall level of political activity across groups. We study total contributions by corporate political action committees at the industry level. We create a large data set on industry political activity, covering 124 industries across five election cycles from 1978 to 1986 and sketch out a simple benefit-cost model to predict total corporate PAC contributions in each industry. The few previous studies of this phenomenon use relatively small samples and employ statistical techniques that are either biased or impose untested restrictions. The selectivity-corrected regression technique used here solves these problems. We find that industries with greater potential benefits from government assistance contribute systematically more but that the ability to realize these benefits is constrained by collective action problems facing firms in each industry.
Careerism, Committee Assignments, and the Electoral Connection
Authors: Katz Jonathan N. , Sala Brian R.
Published: May 2006

Most scholars agree that members of Congress are strongly motivated by their desire for reelection. This assumption implies that members of Congress adopt institutions, rules, and norms of behavior in part to serve their electoral interests. Direct tests of the electoral connection are rare, however, because significant, exogenous changes in the electoral environment are difficult to identify. We develop and test an electoral rationale for the norm of committee assignment “property rights.” We examine committee tenure patterns before and after a major, exogenous change in the electoral system—the states' rapid adoption of Australian ballot laws in the early 1890s. The ballot changes, we argue, induced new “personal vote” electoral incentives, which contributed to the adoption of “modern” congressional institutions such as property rights to committee assignments. We demonstrate a marked increase in assignment stability after 1892, by which time a majority of states had put the new ballot laws into force, and earlier than previous studies have suggested.
Attitudes toward Individual Responsibility and Political Reform in the Former Soviet Union
Authors: Finifter Ada W.
Published: May 2006

Based upon a survey of the USSR in December 1989, Finifter and Mickiewicz (1992) found that respondents with higher education were less inclined than those with lower education to support individual, versus state, responsibility, and that supporters of individual responsibility were slightly less likely than those favoring state responsibility to support political change. A recent critique challenged this analysis, arguing that higher education is always associated with support for individual responsibility and that preference for individual responsibility is always positively associated with support for political reform, and reported findings to that effect. This analysis resolves these discrepant findings and clarifies why they occurred. A replication using data from 40 societies demonstrates that the relationship between education and locus of responsibility is not universal; indeed, it appears in only a few countries. Moreover, large differences in sampling and measurement procedures and extraordinary changes over time in the real world contributed to the differences between our findings and those of our critics.
The Duration of Interstate Wars, 1816–1985
Authors: Bennett D. Scott , Stam Allan C.
Published: May 2006

We present a model of war duration which incorporates both realpolitik and domestic political variables. We hypothesize that strategy, terrain, capabilities, and government type, among other variables, will play key roles in determining the duration of war. We test these hypotheses using hazard analysis and find empirical support for our key arguments. We find that the realpolitik variables play a greater role than regime behavior and type in determining war duration. We also find that historically, on average, mobilization and strategic surprise have little effect on war duration and that wars are not duration dependent.
The Origin of the Counter-Enlightenment: Rousseau and the New Religion of Sincerity
Authors: Melzer Arthur M.
Published: May 2006

Rousseau inaugurated the counter-Enlightenment—that attack on secular rationalism and quest for “re-enchantment” that has, in one form or another, been with us ever since (and which, if the postmodern age has really arrived, now enjoys its heyday). The crowning expression of this event was Rousseau's effort to revive (while transforming) Christianity. Yet, paradoxically, it is also in Rousseau that the polemical core of the Enlightenment—the critique of Christianity—reached its fullest development. This strange co-presence of Enlightenment and counter-Enlightenment suggests an unsuspected continuity between the two. Rousseau, by pursuing more radically the underlying goal of the Enlightenment critique of Christianity—the restoration of human wholeness—was led to extend that very critique to Enlightenment rationalism itself and thence to propose a return to religion, but to one that, rooted in sincerity, would not only avoid the dangers of traditional Christianity but also better fulfill the Enlightenment's own humanistic goal.
Making Social Science Work Across Space and Time: A Critical Reflection on Robert Putnam's Making Democracy Work
Authors: Tarrow Sidney
Published: May 2006

Political scientists are becoming more self-conscious about how they connect quantitative and qualitative data in social science and about the role of systematic country studies in comparative research. As the most striking example of both practices in recent years, Robert Putnam and his collaborators' Making Democracy Work deserves more serious criticism than it has received. While Putnam's original project aimed at a precise goal—studying how a new administrative reform is institutionalized—his ultimate project aimed at nothing less than examining how differently democracy works in different sociopolitical contexts, operationalized cross-sectionally in southern and northern Italy. The sources of these differences he found in the two regions' histories, which led him to employ the quantitative interregional data he had collected for one purpose to support a model of historical development of North and South. This historical reconstruction rests largely on qualitative data; but it also rests on a set of comparative inferences about individual values and community cohesiveness in the two regions that is of questionable historical validity and innocent of structural grounding. This article applauds Putnam's joining qualitative and quantitative data but attacks his reconstruction of Italian history to fit his model of social capital.
Modeling Negative Campaigning
Authors: Skaperdas Stergios , Grofman Bernard
Published: May 2006

Negative campaigning is an important aspect of campaign competition but plays little or no role in existing models of campaigns. Within the context of plurality elections for a single office we model the incentives that affect the use of negative campaigning. Under simplifying but still quite general assumptions we show a number of results, including the following key conclusions: (1) for two-candidate competition the front-runner will engage in more positive and less negative campaigning than the opponent; (2) in a three-candidate contest with one candidate clearly trailing by a large margin and playing mainly a spoiler role, that candidate will only engage in positive campaigning; and (3) in any three-candidate contest, no candidate engages in negative campaigning against the weaker of his two opponents, so that to the extent there is negative campaigning, it will be directed against the front-runner or it will come from the front-runner. These results have direct empirical applications to multicandidate primaries and nonpartisan contests and can provide insight into recent general elections as well.
Criteria of constructibility for real numbers
Authors: Myhill John
Published: May 2006

The purpose of this paper is to prove two theorems and a conjecture (Conjecture II) announced in section 15 an earlier paper of the author's (cited as “CT”), and to compare them briefly with related results of Specker. Familiarity with both papers is assumed; the terminology of the former is used throughout. On two points however clarification of the usage of CT is in order, and to this chore we must first proceed.

A half-section is the lower half of a Dedekind cut; if the cut is rational, the half section is to include the rational corresponding to the real defined by the cut. A whole-section is the relation which holds between any member of the lower and any member of the upper half of some Dedekind cut. If the cut is rational the corresponding rational is to be a member of both halves.

A real number α is said to be approximate in K to any required number of decimal places if it is possible to define the predicates ‘x < α’, ‘x ≤ α’, ‘x > α’, and ‘x ≥ α’ (x rational) in K. In view of section 7 of CT this will mean that every true inequation between α and a terminating decimal will be provable in K.
On truth and multiple denotation
Authors: Martin R. M.
Published: May 2006

If we think of denotation in a broad sense, we may say not only that, e.g., ‘Marni’ denotes the actual dog Marni but also that ‘dog’ denotes severally the dogs Marni, Fido, etc. What are ordinarily called class names thus come to denote severally the members of the class but not the class itself. This kind of a multiple denotation relation is a very simple as well as a very powerful semantical relation. In fact it can be taken as the fundamental relation of formal (extensional) semantics.

Conceptually this denotation relation is akin to the relation of satisfaction studied by Tarski, although the two must be carefully distinguished. Satisfaction (in its simplest form) is a relation between objects and sentential functions of one variable. Denotation is taken as a relation holding, on the one hand, between what is ordinarily called a proper name and the object which it names, and, on the other, between what may be called a virtual class denotator and the objects which are members of the virtual class in question. (This relation will be characterized more precisely below.) Clearly the two relations, satisfaction in its simplest form and multiple denotation, are interdefinable in an appropriate formalism.
On natural numbers, integers, and rationals
Authors: Fitch Frederic B.
Published: May 2006

A theory of natural numbers will be outlined in what follows. This theory will also be extended to give an account of positive and negative integers and positive and negative rational numbers. The system of logic used will be that of Whitehead and Russell's Principia mathematica with the simple theory of types. It will be assumed that the reader is familiar with the more elementary properties of relations and with such notions as the relative product of two relations, the square of a relation, the cube of a relation, and the various other whole-number powers of relations.

The guiding principle of this theory is that the natural number zero is to be regarded as the relation of the zevoth power of a relation А to А itself, and the natural number 1 is to be regarded as the relation of the first power of a relation А to А itself, and the natural number 2 is to be regarded as the relation of the square of a relation А to А itself, and so on.
A simplification of basic logic
Authors: Fitch Frederic B.
Published: May 2006

The program of “basic logic” can be summarized as follows:

I. To treat every syntactical system as a subclass of a certain fixed infinite classUof “U-expressions.” This can always be done by modifying in trivial ways the notation of each syntactical system which is not already such a subclass. As a result all syntactical systems become comparable with each other in the sense that they are merely different subclasses of a single class of expressions. The class U can be chosen in such a way as to be inductively definable thus in terms of a fixed symbol ‘σ’: (1) The symbol ‘σ’ is a U-expression. (2) The result of placing two U-expressions (or two occurrences of the same U-expression) next to each other, and enclosing this total expression within a pair of parentheses, is a U-expression.

II. To formulate a particular syntactical systemKwithin which every syntactical system (and indeedKitself) is “represented.” Such a system is here said to be a “basic system,” and an appropriate interpretation of it is said to be a “basic logic.” Within such a logic every finitary logic is definable, as well as the basic logic itself. Such a logic should be of fundamental importance, especially if it is so constructed as to be the weakest such logic and so contain no theorems that are not essential to its being basic.

With the above considerations in view, the system K has been defined in such a way that it is a subclass of U and is a basic syntactical system. A simpler definition of K will be given than heretofore in previous papers, and the minimum character of K will be made more clear.
Towards a consistent set-theory
Authors: Myhill John
Published: May 2006

In a previous paper, I proved the consistency of a non-finitary system of logic based on the theory of types, which was shown to contain the axiom of reducibility in a form which seemed not to interfere with the classical construction of real numbers. A form of the system containing a strong axiom of choice was also proved consistent.

It seems to me now that the real-number approach used in that paper, though valid, was not the most fruitful one. We can, on the lines therein suggested, prove the consistency of axioms closely resembling Tarski's twenty axioms for the real numbers; but this, from the standpoint of mathematical practice, is a pitifully small fragment of analysis. The consistency of a fairly strong set-theory can be proved, using the results of my previous paper, with little more difficulty than that of the Tarski axioms; this being the case, it would seem a saving in effort to derive the consistency of such a theory first, then to strengthen that theory (if possible) in such ways as can be shown to preserve consistency; and finally to derive from the system thus strengthened, if need be, a more usable real-number theory. The present paper is meant to achieve the first part of this program. The paragraphs of this paper are numbered consecutively with those of my previous paper, of which it is to be regarded as a continuation.
A Boolean derivation of the Moore-Osgood theorem
Authors: Blake Archie
Published: May 2006

A fundamental problem of symbolic logic is to define logical calculi sufficient to comprise important parts of mathematics, and to develop systematic methods of calculation therein.

The possibility of progress in this direction has been severely limited by Gödel's proof that a consistent system sufficient to comprise arithmetic must contain propositions whose truth-value cannot be decided within the system, and by Church's extension of Gödel's method to the result that even in the first order logical function calculus the general decision problem cannot be solved.
Note on truth-tables
Authors: Kalicki Jan
Published: May 2006

In this paper a method will be described which is intended to exhibit some relationships between sets of tautologies determined by truth-tables. This method is an attempt to form an algebra of truth-tables. The results sketched below are restricted to sets of tautologies determined by truth-tables with a finite number of elements and involving a single binary connective Δ. However, most of the results can be easily extended to the case of Tarski's logical matrix and even to a more general case.

We denote by S() the set of all tautologies (-tautologies) according to a given truth-table . Let describe a binary connective Δ. Then Δ()(x, y) stands for the truth-value of ΔPQ, when P has the truth-value x and Q has the truth-value y. If no ambiguity may arise we write Δ(x, y) or Δ() for Δ()(x, y).
Note on a problem of Paul Bernays
Authors: Sobociński Bolesław
Published: May 2006

In this Journal, vol. 18 (1953), p. 350 (Problem 7), Prof. P. Bernays proposed the following problem on propositional calculus: What is the smallest number n such that the propositional calculus, formulated with substitution and modus ponens as the only rules of inference, can be based on a set of initial formulas each of which contains at most n propositional letters (counted with multiplicity) ?

In this note I give a solution to this problem, viz., that this number n = 5. For a system of propositional calculus in which the primitive functors are “C” (implication) and “N” (negation) and in which there are only two rules of inference, i.e. the rules of substitution and detachment (modus ponens), the following can be proved. (1) A set of propositional theses each of which contains at most 4 propositional letters is inadequate to give the complete bi-valued calculus of propositions. (2) There are axiom systems for this calculus in which each axiom contains at most 5 propositional letters.

§ 1. Consider the following normal metrix, in which the designated value is I:

This satisfies the two rules of inference, and the following.

(a) The law of commutation, i.e. the thesis

CCpCqrCqCpr.

(b) The following theses:

Furthermore, in this matrix “N” is defined in such a way that:

(c) For any well-formed formula α and any value m of this matrix, α = m if and only if NNα = m.
Note on an idea of Fitch
Authors: Myhill John R.
Published: May 2006

The concept of a recursively definite predicate of natural numbers was introduced by F. B. Fitch in his An extension of basic logic as follows:

Every recursive predicate is recursively definite. If R(x1, …, xn) is recursively definite so is (Ey)R(x1, …, xn−1, y) and (y)R(x1, …, xn−1, y). If R is recursively definite and S is the proper ancestral of R, then S is recursively definite, where the proper ancestral of a relation is defined as follows: if R is of even degree, say 2m, then the proper ancestral of R is the relation S such that for all x1, …, xm, y1, …, ym, S(x1, …, xm, y1, …, ym) is true if and only if there is a finite sequence of sequences (z11, …, zm1), (z12, …, Zm2), …, (z1k, …, Zmk) such that R(Z11, …, Zm1, z12, …, zm2), R(z12, …, zm2, z13, …, zm3), …, R(z1,k−1, z1k, …, Zmk) are all true, where (z11, …, zm1) is (x1, …, xm) and (z1k, …, zmk) is (y1, …, ym).

An arithmetic predicate is one which is definable in terms of the operations ‘+’ and ‘·’ of elementary arithmetic, the connectives of the classical prepositional calculus, and quantifiers.