bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Measurement Error Evaluation of Self-Reported Drug Use: A Latent Class Analysis of the US National Household Survey on Drug Abuse
Authors: Biemer Paul P. , Wiesen Christopher
Published: March 2003

Latent class analysis (LCA) is a statistical tool for evaluating the error in categorical data when two or more repeated measurements of the same survey variable are available. This paper illustrates an application of LCA for evaluating the error in self-reports of drug use using data from the 1994, 1995 and 1996 implementations of the US National Household Survey on Drug Abuse. In our application, the LCA approach is used for estimating classification errors which in turn leads to identifying problems with the questionnaire and adjusting estimates of prevalence of drug use for classification error bias. Some problems in using LCA when the indicators of the use of a particular drug are embedded in a single survey questionnaire, as in the National Household Survey on Drug Abuse, are also discussed.
Unbiased Estimation of Central Moments by using U-statistics
Authors: Heffernan Peter M.
Published: March 2003

We obtain an estimator of the rth central moment of a distribution, which is unbiased for all distributions for which the first r moments exist. We do this by finding the kernel which allows the rth central moment to be written as a regular statistical functional. The U-statistic associated with this kernel is the unique symmetric unbiased estimator of the rth central moment, and, for each distribution, it has minimum variance among all estimators which are unbiased for all these distributions.
Robust Models in Probability Sampling
Authors: Firth D. , Bennett K. E.
Published: March 2003

In the estimation of a population mean or total from a random sample, certain methods based on linear models are known to be automatically design consistent, regardless of how well the underlying model describes the population. A sufficient condition is identified for this type of robustness to model failure; the condition, which we call ‘internal bias calibration’, relates to the combination of a model and the method used to fit it. Included among the internally bias-calibrated models, in addition to the aforementioned linear models, are certain canonical link generalized linear models and nonparametric regressions constructed from them by a particular style of local likelihood fitting. Other models can often be made robust by using a suboptimal fitting method. Thus the class of model-based, but design consistent, analyses is enlarged to include more realistic models for certain types of survey variable such as binary indicators and counts. Particular applications discussed are the estimation of the size of a population subdomain, as arises in tax auditing for example, and the estimation of a bootstrap tail probability.
The Covariance Inflation Criterion for Adaptive Model Selection
Authors: Tibshirani Robert , Knight Keith
Published: March 2003

We propose a new criterion for model selection in prediction problems. The covariance inflation criterion adjusts the training error by the average covariance of the predictions and responses, when the prediction rule is applied to permuted versions of the data set. This criterion can be applied to general prediction problems (e.g. regression or classification) and to general prediction rules (e.g. stepwise regression, tree-based models and neural nets). As a by-product we obtain a measure of the effective number of parameters used by an adaptive procedure. We relate the covariance inflation criterion to other model selection procedures and illustrate its use in some regression and classification problems. We also revisit the conditional bootstrap approach to model selection.
Local Sensitivity Approximations for Selectivity Bias
Authors: Copas John , Eguchi Shinto
Published: March 2003

Observational data analysis is often based on tacit assumptions of ignorability or randomness. The paper develops a general approach to local sensitivity analysis for selectivity bias, which aims to study the sensitivity of inference to small departures from such assumptions. If M is a model assuming ignorability, we surround M by a small neighbourhood N defined in the sense of Kullback–Leibler divergence and then compare the inference for models in N with that for M. Interpretable bounds for such differences are developed. Applications to missing data and to observational comparisons are discussed. Local approximations to sensitivity analysis are model robust and can be applied to a wide range of statistical problems.
Comparison of Approaches for Estimating the Probability of Coastal Flooding
Authors: Bruun John T. , Tawn Jonathan A.
Published: March 2003

Coastal flooding is typically caused by combinations of extreme water-levels and large waves. Two extreme value methods, one univariate and the other multivariate, have been used for estimating the probability of coastal flooding at an existing flood defence structure and for aiding the design of a new structure. The properties of these two methods are compared in terms of extrapolation, sophistication and use of information for a range of extremal dependence structures. We find that, when applied to the assessment of the safety offered by an existing Dutch dike, the multivariate approach provides the more useful and accurate design information and has the substantial benefits of consistency and reduced statistical analysis when applied to several sites along a Dutch coastline.
Controlling Processes in Food Technology by Simplifying the Canonical form of Fitted Response Surfaces
Authors: Gilmour Steven G. , Ringrose Trevor J.
Published: March 2003

Second-order response surfaces are often fitted to the results of designed experiments, and the canonical form of such surfaces can greatly help both in interpreting the results and in deciding what action to take on the process under study. A mixing process on pastry dough is described in which it is desired to simplify the canonical form to make the control of the process more economical, by basing it on only two of the three factors. We give examples where a simplification is possible with minimal loss of accuracy and where it can be seriously misleading, and we outline the features of the response surface that lead to these two situations. A method of improving the simplification by recalculating the constrained canonical axis is proposed. These methods ensure that the mixing process can be controlled by using only two factors without seriously lowering the quality of the pastry.
Difference Variance Dispersion Graphs for Comparing Response Surface Designs with Applications in Food Technology
Authors: Trinca Luzia A. , Gilmour Steven G.
Published: March 2003

Variance dispersion graphs have become a popular tool in aiding the choice of a response surface design. Often differences in response from some particular point, such as the expected position of the optimum or standard operating conditions, are more important than the response itself. We describe two examples from food technology. In the first, an experiment was conducted to find the levels of three factors which optimized the yield of valuable products enzymatically synthesized from sugars and to discover how the yield changed as the levels of the factors were changed from the optimum. In the second example, an experiment was conducted on a mixing process for pastry dough to discover how three factors affected a number of properties of the pastry, with a view to using these factors to control the process. We introduce the difference variance dispersion graph (DVDG) to help in the choice of a design in these circumstances. The DVDG for blocked designs is developed and the examples are used to show how the DVDG can be used in practice. In both examples a design was chosen by using the DVDG, as well as other properties, and the experiments were conducted and produced results that were useful to the experimenters. In both cases the conclusions were drawn partly by comparing responses at different points on the response surface.
Allowing for Non-Ignorable Non-Response in the Analysis of Voting Intention Data
Authors: Smith Peter W. F. , Skinner Chris J. , Clarke Paul S.
Published: March 2003

We apply some log-linear modelling methods, which have been proposed for treating non-ignorable non-response, to some data on voting intention from the British General Election Survey. We find that, although some non-ignorable non-response models fit the data very well, they may generate implausible point estimates and predictions. Some explanation is provided for the extreme behaviour of the maximum likelihood estimates for the most parsimonious model. We conclude that point estimates for such models must be treated with great caution. To allow for the uncertainty about the non-response mechanism we explore the use of profile likelihood inference and find the likelihood surfaces to be very flat and the interval estimates to be very wide. To reduce the width of these intervals we propose constraining confidence regions to values where the parameters governing the non-response mechanism are plausible and study the effect of such constraints on inference. We find that the widths of these intervals are reduced but remain wide.
Nonparametric Calibration for Age Estimation
Authors: Lucy D. , Aykroyd R. G. , Pollard A. M.
Published: March 2003

A method is proposed for the calibration of a continuous random variable when the dependent variables are a combination of continuous and categorical, and the model between the controlling variables and calibrated variable is empirically derived. The various probability distributions are estimated from training data by using kernel density procedures with bi-variate normal kernels for continuous variables and uniform smoothing for discrete variables. Bayes's theorem is then used to produce the posterior distribution from which point estimates and estimates of confidence may be made. Individual posterior densities allow each case to be considered separately and cases with conflicting evidence can easily be identified for further investigation. This approach is illustrated by using part of a data set of human adult teeth from individuals of known age. Estimates from the method proposed show less bias than those from the widely used multiple regression. This allows a more accurate reconstruction of the age distributions of ancient populations. In particular bias reduction is most notable at the extreme ages, which also tend to be the least frequent, thereby widening the age distribution. This will allow a more reliable consideration of archaeological and anthropological questions relating to, for example, the maximum lifespan, age-related social structure and the development of age-related disease.
Modelling Subjective Use of an Ordinal Response Scale in a Many Period Crossover Experiment
Authors: Wolfe Rory , Firth David
Published: March 2003

The analysis of psychoacoustic experiments in telecommunications research motivates the modelling of a repeated ordinal response by using logit models in which subject effects are both additive and multiplicative. Estimation by maximum likelihood and using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods is discussed, and the results are compared. The models and methods used are of potential value in many other applied contexts which involve a subjective interpretation of response category labels.
A Parametric Dynamic Survival Model Applied to Breast Cancer Survival Times
Authors: Hemming K. , Shaw J. E. H.
Published: March 2003

Much current analysis of cancer registry data uses the semiparametric proportional hazards Cox model. In this paper, the time-dependent effect of various prognostic indicators on breast cancer survival times from the West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit are investigated. Using Bayesian methodology and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation methods, we develop a parametric dynamic survival model which avoids the proportional hazards assumption. The model has close links to that developed by both Gamerman and Sinha and co-workers: the log-base-line hazard and covariate effects are piecewise constant functions, related between intervals by a simple stochastic evolution process. Here this evolution is assigned a parametric distribution, with a variance that is further included as a hyperparameter. To avoid problems of convergence within the Gibbs sampler, we consider using a reparameterization. It is found that, for some of the prognostic indicators considered, the estimated effects change with increasing follow-up time. In general those prognostic indicators which are thought to be representative of the most hazardous groups (late-staged tumour and oldest age group) have a declining effect.
An Efficient Taper for Potentially Overdifferenced Long‐memory Time Series
Authors: Hurvich Clifford M. , Chen Willa W.
Published: March 2003

We propose a new complex‐valued taper and derive the properties of a tapered Gaussian semiparametric estimator of the long‐memory parameter dε (−0.5, 1.5). The estimator and its accompanying theory can be applied to generalized unit root testing. In the proposed method, the data are differenced once before the taper is applied. This guarantees that the tapered estimator is invariant with respect to deterministic linear trends in the original series. Any detrimental leakage effects due to the potential noninvertibility of the differenced series are strongly mitigated by the taper. The proposed estimator is shown to be more efficient than existing invariant tapered estimators. Invariance to kth order polynomial trends can be attained by differencing the data k times and then applying a stronger taper, which is given by the kth power of the proposed taper. We show that this new family of tapers enjoys strong efficiency gains over comparable existing tapers. Analysis of both simulated and actual data highlights potential advantages of the tapered estimator of d compared with the nontapered estimator.
Controlling Revisions in Arima‐Model‐Based Seasonal Adjustment
Authors: PLANAS CHRISTOPHE , DEPOUTOT RAOUL
Published: March 2003

The Statistical Office of the European Community (EUROSTAT) currently uses two different methods for seasonally adjusting macroeconomic indicators, through the implementations of the programs X‐12‐ARIMA (Findley et al., 1998) and TRAMO‐SEATS (Gómez and Maravall, 1996). A major difference between the two methodologies is that X‐11 filters are of finite length while the signal extraction filters in TRAMO‐SEATS are infinite whenever the observed series model embodies a MA part. In this paper, we show how infinite seasonal adjustment filters can be optimally approximated by finite ones, and we apply this result to the problem of controlling the length of the revision period. We also show how considering finite versions of the signal extraction filters improves the interpretation of the X‐11 filters in the model‐based framework.
Temporal aggregation and spurious instantaneous causality in multiple time series models
Authors: BREITUNG JÖRG , SWANSON NORMAN R.
Published: March 2003

Large aggregation interval asymptotics are used to investigate the relation between Granger causality in disaggregated vector autoregressions (VARs) and associated contemporaneous correlation among innovations of the aggregated system. One of our main contributions is that we outline various conditions under which the informational content of error covariance matrices yields insight into the causal structure of the VAR. Monte Carlo results suggest that our asymptotic findings are applicable even when the aggregation interval is small, as long as the time series are not characterized by high levels of persistence.
On the efficacy of simulated maximum likelihood for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential Equations*
Authors: Hurn A. S. , Lindsay K. A. , Martin V. L.
Published: March 2003

Abstract.A method for estimating the parameters of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) by simulated maximum likelihood is presented. This method is feasible whenever the underlying SDE is a Markov process. Estimates are compared to those generated by indirect inference, discrete and exact maximum likelihood. The technique is illustrated with reference to a one‐factor model of the term structure of interest rates using 3‐month US Treasury Bill data.
Employers' Recruitment Behaviour: An Empirical Analysis of the Role of Personnel Management Attitudes
Authors: Russo Giovanni , Gorter Cees , Nijkamp Peter , Rietveld Piet
Published: March 2003

The practical importance of recruitment is witnessed by the existence of specific personnel management functions within firms. The aim of the paper is to investigate the importance of firms' personnel management attitudes for recruitment procedures. We focus on the choice of the first search channel and on the subsequent search spell. The model is empirically estimated by using a data set on recruitment behaviour of Dutch firms. The results show that personnel management considerations are important for the choice of the recruitment channel. It appears that advertisement is preferred to the informal channel in that employers believe it is faster and generates applicants who better comply with the hiring standards. Furthermore, employers turn out to prefer mainly the informal channel when recruitment costs are considered important.
Do Immigrants Compete with Natives?
Authors: Gavosto Andrea , Venturini Alessandra , Villosio Claudia
Published: March 2003

The paper analyses the impact of foreign workers on the Italian labour market. We address the issue of whether immigrants from less developed countries are complementary or substitutes to domestic workers. We construct a data set on immigrant workers from the Administrative Social Security Archive which starts in 1986, before the general amnesty of 1990–91, when a large share of illegal immigrants were granted working permits, and end in 1995. A two‐stage procedure devised by Moulton is applied to yearly cross‐sections of wages by industry and region. Our results show that the inflow of immigrants raises the wages of native manual workers (i.e. it has a complementary effect), and this effect is larger in small firms and in the north of the country. We postulate that the positive impact on native wages is due to the existence of labour constraints on the side of firms. Firms are unable to expand their output because they cannot find native workers who are willing to undertake certain (typically low‐skilled) jobs. Immigrants help to fill this gap. This view is reinforced by the fact that over a ‘crucial threshold’ of the share of foreign work (7.7–12 percent) additional inflows in the labour market of foreign work have a negative effect on native wages (i.e. they compete with natives).
Decentralized Public Sector Wage Determination: Wage Curve and Wage Comparison for Norwegian Teachers in the Pre‐WW2 Period
Authors: Falch Torberg
Published: March 2003

The recent trend towards decentralization of European public sector wage determination relaxes some of the central administered wage setting mechanisms developed in the post‐WW2 period. This paper discusses teacher wage determination in Norway in 1905–39, a period with a highly decentralized public sector wage formation. Separate wage equations for urban and rural areas are estimated. I find that the responsiveness to unemployment of the urban wage was of the same magnitude as in the post‐WW2 period private sector wage formation. In addition, the internal teacher labour market and local economic conditions influence the wage level. The rural wage mainly followed the urban wage.
Comparisons in Gender Wage Differentials and Discrimination between Germany and the United Kingdom
Authors: Brookes Mick , Hinks Timothy , Watson Duncan
Published: March 2003

Due to the lack of consistent data, direct and robust comparisons of cross‐country labour markets have been virtually impossible. This study uses a new panel data series that controls for inconsistencies, thus overcoming this problem. This study estimates gender wage differentials and gender discrimination in the German and UK labour markets. Panel estimates are used to identify general wage differences between the two countries, with cross‐sectional comparisons undertaken to identify changes that have occurred between 1991 and 1993, that are consistent with known labour market policies. It is found that gender wage differentials are greater in the UK than Germany with employer discrimination against females attributed with the majority of the difference in both countries.
Returns to Education during the Reform of State‐owned Enterprises in Hunan, People’s Republic of China
Authors: Huang Xiaoyu , Caldas José Vaz , Rebelo João
Published: March 2003

The objective of this paper is to analyse the impact of education on personal earnings during the reform of state‐owned enterprises, comparing 1995 with 1998 in Hunan, China, using the Mincerian earnings equation method. The results show that the rates of return to education increased, indicating that human capital has been better rewarded as the reforms of the Chinese economic structure have progressed. Moreover, the findings show that primary education receives the highest returns, followed by tertiary education. Middle school education obtains the lowest rewards, reflecting the effects of the reform of state‐owned enterprises on middle school graduates on whom the unemployment impact of this change has been the greatest.
Trade and Factor Market Reforms in China
Authors: Doi Masayuki , Tiwari Piyush , Kawakami Tetsu
Published: March 2003

The benefits of the multi‐faceted liberalization of the Chinese economy can be seen in various indicators of economic development. The rate of growth of the economy, the flow of foreign investment in China, and rising quality of life are some of the indicators of gains from the liberalization process. Most of the research has focused on the role of trade reforms on the Chinese economy. There is, however, one unfinished agenda that has not been addressed adequately by policy makers as well as academia, i.e. labor‐sector reforms. In this paper, we analyze the effect of labor market liberalization in China using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. Most CGE models on China using a neoclassical approach assume that there is a single wage rate for the economy. This is a simplifying assumption and has strong implications. Studies show that inter‐industry wage differentials persist even after accounting for obvious explanations such as differences in human capital or job hazard. Inter‐industry structural rigidities in developing countries lead to wage differentials. In China, labor mobility from the rural to the urban sector is restricted. Furthermore, China is on its way to joining the WTO agreement. As a signatory to the WTO agreement, China would be required to reform its trade sector by eliminating tariffs. In this paper, we explicitly model wage differentials in the case of the Chinese economy. Various counterfactual experiments have been conducted to introduce efficiency by the removal of factor market differentials in China in the presence and absence of tariff and non‐tariff barriers. Our results indicate that factor market reforms are essential to the realization of full gains from accession to the WTO agreement.
The Acquisition of Tense‐Aspect Marking in Japanese as a Second Language
Authors: Shirai Yasuhiro , Kurono Atsuko
Published: March 2003

Researchers have argued that the developmental sequence of tense‐aspect morphology in second language (L2) acquisition follows a universal pattern (the Aspect Hypothesis; e.g., Robison, 1995). Although such a tendency fits the acquisition of typologically similar languages (English, French and Spanish), the universal claim requires testing against non‐Indo European languages. This study tested the Aspect Hypothesis using L2 Japanese (JSL) data. Experiment 1 showed that in oral production data, 3 learners of JSL showed stronger association of achievement verbs and past marking (‐ta), and of activity verbs and progressive/durative marking (‐te i‐), than native speakers. Experiment 2 showed that in an acceptability judgment test of tense‐aspect forms, 17 learners of JSL had more difficulty correctly judging the acceptability of the progressive/durative marker (‐te i‐) with achievement verbs than with activity verbs. The results extend the applicability of the Aspect Hypothesis to a non‐Indo‐European language.
Impact of Reading Purpose on Incidental Word Learning From Context
Authors: Swanborn M. S. L. , de Glopper K.
Published: March 2003

Children read texts for various reasons. We examined how reading texts for different purposes affected amounts of incidental word learning. Grade 6 students were asked to read texts for fun, to learn about the topic of the text, and for text comprehension. Proportions of words learned incidentally while reading ranged from .06 for free reading to .08 when reading for text comprehension to .10 when reading to learn about the topic. Level of reading ability was a significant factor in all conditions. Low‐ability readers hardly learned any words incidentally; high‐ability readers defined up to 27 of every 100 unknown words when reading for text comprehension. Implications for future research on incidental word learning and reading instruction are discussed.
What Gets Processed in Processing Instruction? A Commentary on Bill VanPatten’s “Processing Instruction: An Update”
Authors: DeKeyser Robert , Salaberry Rafael , Robinson Peter , Harrington Michael
Published: March 2003

In this article we respond to VanPatten’s update of the findings for processing instruction. We begin by questioning the explanatory adequacy of the model of input processing that VanPatten has proposed and that underpins his pedagogic proposals. We question both the validity of the limited–capacity, single–resource model of attention he proposes for second language classroom learning, and also the details of the mechanisms he argues are implicated in second language processing. We then arguefor alternative explanations of the effects found for input processing instruction and against VanPatten’s claim that the studies he reviews are true replications of earlier findings.Throughout we argue that further specification of cognitive resources, processing mechanisms,and conditions of learning operationalized in putative replications areessential if research into input processing instruction is to be explanatory, and cumulative, as VanPatten claims it is.
Domestic Violence, Character, And Social Change In The Welfare Reform Debate
Authors: Meier Joan
Published: March 2003

This article addresses the recently discovered connection between domestic violence and welfare dependency.“ Empirical research among welfare populations shows that over 50% of women receiving welfare are or have recently been battered, and that partner abuse is a major reason for the continuing poverty of many women.

The question the author asks and begins to answer is why this connection has not previously been identified or publicized by either the battered women’s movement or the anti‐poverty movement, and what the challenge may be to both movements as they attempt to address it in the context of welfare reform. The author argues that the connection has not been previously addressed because of the somewhat conflicting ideologies underlying both movements. The battered women’s movement is defined in part by its strong moral denunciation of male abusers and assertion of the victimization of women by men. The anti‐poverty movement is reluctant to demonize half of the poor population, particularly in light of the conservative welfare reformers’ emphasis on ”character“ as the main cause of poverty. The article argues that we must – and can – find a way to synthesize the feminist emphasis on interpersonal justice and morality with the anti‐poverty movement’s recognition of the larger social causes of poverty. The perspectives of both movements must be enlarged to recognize the multiple layers of victimization which poor women and men endure; and both movements will be revitalized by this cross‐fertilization.
Self‐Regulation Versus Command and Control? Beyond False Dichotomies
Authors: Sinclair Darren
Published: March 2003

The search for regulatory alternatives to command and control has led many commentators to promote, or at least contemplate, the use of self‐regulation to improve the environmental performance of industry. However, much of the current debate has been characterized by a choice between two mutually exclusive policy options: “strict” command and control on one hand, and “pure” self‐regulation on the other. In fact, there is a much richer range of policy options, with most falling somewhere between theoretically polar extremes. This article demonstrates that there are a number of “regulatory variables” which policymakers can use to “fine‐tune” regulatory options to suit the specific circumstances of particular environmental issues. In the vast majority of circumstances, a combination of self‐regulation and command and control will provide the ideal regulatory outcome.
Lawyers Seeking Clients, Clients Seeking Lawyers: Sources of Contingency Fee Cases And Their Implications for Case Handling
Authors: Kritzer Herbert , Krishnan Jayanth
Published: March 2003

Where do the clients of contingency fee lawyers come from, and what are the implications of client sources for contingency fee practice? Those are the questions this paper considers, drawing upon multiple sources of data. The analysis shows that relatively few clients come to lawyers’ offices in response to advertising. Rather, it is the more traditional route of reputationally based referrals that bring in the vast majority of contingency fee clients. The importance of maintaining a reputation that will draw in future clients tends to curb the potential for abuses created by the inherent conflict of interest between lawyer and client that the contingency fee creates.
Geopolitics and the Regulation of Economic Life
Authors: Dodd Nigel , Hutter Bridget
Published: March 2003

The nation‐state should be a central unit of analysis for research into international and transnational regulation. Considering the research implications of this, we focus on the emergence stage of the regulatory process. We discuss how knowledge is contested in discussions between states over regulatory problems. We argue that a range of factors, not just a narrowly conceived national interest, influence their incentive to cooperate. Research is needed into whether regulatory problems at this level pose new or additional issues for states. Other stages of the regulatory process need to be similarly examined, likewise the interaction between the stages themselves.
Coercion, Cooperation, and Control: Understanding the Policy Impact of Administrative Courts and the Ombudsman in the Netherlands
Authors: Hertogh Marc
Published: March 2003

This article examines the way in which administrative courts and the National Ombudsman in the Netherlands seek to control administrative action, and is aimed at developing a heuristic model that can also be useful in a wider context. Two styles of control will be introduced: “coercive” and “cooperative.” An exploratory empirical study was conducted of two administrative agencies, investigating the implementation process of court and ombudsman decisions. This article argues that it is likely that the policy impact of the courts and the ombudsman is directly related to their style of control. More empirical research is needed to evaluate this hypothesis.
Medical Error and Patient Safety: Understanding Cultures in Conflict
Authors: Weinberg Joanna
Published: March 2003

Evidence documenting the high rate of medical errors to patients has taken a prominent place on the health care radar screen. The injuries and deaths associated with medical errors represent a major public health problem with significant economic costs and erosion of trust in the health care system. Between 44,000 and 98,000 deaths due to preventable medical errors are estimated to occur each year, making medical errors the eighth leading cause of death in the United States. However, the recent prominence of the issue of safety or error does not reflect a new phenomenon or sudden rift in the quality of health care (although it is a system fraying at the edges). Rather, the prominence of the issue reflects a radical change in the culture of health care, and in how relationships within the health care system are structured and perceived. In this paper, I discuss the multiple factors responsible for the change in the culture of health care. First, the culture has shifted from a clinician cantered system, in which decision making is one–sided, to a shared system of negotiated care between clinician and patient, and, often, between administrator or payer. Second, the nature of quality in health care has changed due to the geometric increase in the availability of technological and pharmaceutical enhancements to patient care. Third, the health care culture continues to rely on outdated models of conflict resolution. Finally, the regulatory structure of health system oversight was set in place when fee–for–service care governed physician–patient relationships and where few external technologies were available. In the current health care culture, that structure seems inadequate and diffuse, with multiple and overlapping federal and state regulatory structures that make implementation of patient safety systems difficult.
Accountability and Systems of Self‐Governance: The Case of the Maritime Industry
Authors: Furger Franco
Published: March 2003

Environmental policy has predominantly been informed by a command‐and‐control policies. There are reasons to believe that the benefits of command‐and‐control regulations are diminishing or increasingly difficult to measure, whereas the cost of their enforcement is rising. In this paper, I argue that these problems could be overcome if it is recognized that the state is but one source of individual and organizational accountability. I illustrate this argument by discussing the case of the international marine industry. I argue that the marine industry is but one instance of a wide variety of systems of self‐governance. In the final section, I outline an innovative approach to the management of environmental risks, and make suggestions for further investigations.
On the Optimal Government Size in Europe: Theory and Empirical Evidence
Authors: Karras Georgios
Published: March 2003

The optimal government size for the representative European country is estimated by investigating the role of public services in the production process. The empirical results support the following conclusions: (i) government services are significantly productive; (ii) there is no evidence that government services (on average) are not optimally provided; (iii) the optimal government size is 16 per cent (±3 per cent) for the average ICP European country; (iv) the marginal productivity of government services may be negatively related to government size.
Voluntary Export Restraints, Dumping and Excess Capacity
Authors: Marchionatti Roberto , Usai Stefano
Published: March 2003

This paper is a variation on Anderson (“Domino Dumping, I: Competitive Exporters”, American Economic Review, Vol. 82, March 1992, pp. 65–83), who asserts that the prospect of voluntary export restraint (VER) protection, inducing firms to dump, can create further protection. Anderson's model, however, seems unable to explain some stylized facts concerning the VER‐regulated trade in textiles and clothing. Our aim is to account for such stylized facts through the introduction of a cost of excess productive capacity attributed to dumping actions. This allows us to describe a new chain of effects related to dumping and VERs: the incentive to dump, induced by the expectation of a VER, can generate the creation of productive excess capacity in the present period, which in turn can increase the incentive to dump in the future.
Smooth Transitions and GDP Growth in the European Union
Authors: Greenaway David , Leybourne Stephen , Sapsford David
Published: March 2003

In this paper we test whether GDP series in 12 European Union countries are integrated or are stationary around a deterministic component that may change gradually and smoothly between two regimes over time. We find that in two‐thirds of cases there appears to be a role for modelling with deterministic functions that allow smooth transitions, in some cases standing alone, in others in conjunction with additional integrated regressors. These findings constitute a challenge to traditional approaches to modelling breaking‐trend behaviour in GDP, which typically impose the condition that breaks, when present, must occur instantaneously.
Real Interest Rate Parity under Regime Shifts and Implications for Monetary Policy
Authors: Wu Jyh‐Lin , Fountas Stilianos
Published: March 2003

We use recently developed cointegration tests that determine the regime shift endogenously to test for bilateral real interest rate convergence (real interest rate parity) in the G7 against the USA in the 1974–95 period. In contrast with previous studies that employed classical regression analysis and standard cointegration tests, our innovative approach provides strong evidence in favour of bilateral real interest rate convergence between the USA and several countries in our sample, in particular for short‐term real interest rates. Our results highlight the fact that for a number of countries in our sample (Canada and the UK) monetary policy can act as a stabilization policy tool through its effect on domestic long‐term real interest rates, while for others (France and Germany) long‐term real interest rate changes are influenced by the US monetary policy stance.
Economies of Scale and Scope, Contestability, Windfall Profits and Regulatory Risk
Authors: Ryan Michael J.
Published: March 2003

In this paper I introduce new results on economies of scale and scope and develop implications of these results for contestability and regulation. This is done using a goal programming approach which endogenizes regulatory frameworks in a multiperiod and multiregion monopolistic and oligopolistic analysis. This explicitly spatial approach leads to useful distinctions between industrial contestability and market contestability and a multiperiod contestability‐based regulatory model. That model is then extended to a state preference framework with regulatory risk and windfall gains and losses.
Regional Integration Agreements and Foreign Direct Investment: Theory and Preliminary Evidence
Authors: Balasubramanyam V. N. , Sapsford David , Griffiths David
Published: March 2003

In this paper we investigate the effects which economic integration exerts upon the magnitude and character of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows. Drawing upon the existing literature on trade flows we investigate the impact of regional integration agreements (RIAs) on FDI flows and analyse their welfare implications. An empirical investigation of some 381 bilateral FDI flows in 1995 is presented, the results of which suggest, in broad terms, that it is not the presence of RIAs that determines the magnitude and direction of bilateral FDI flows but rather the economic characteristics of both the investing and the host country.
Real Interest Rates And Real Exchange Rates: Evidence From Indexed Bonds
Authors: Bleaney Michael , Laxton Douglas
Published: March 2003

Uncovered interest parity has found little empirical support at short horizons.Subtracting expected inflation differentials from both sides of the uncovered interestparity relationship implies a similar relationship between real interest rate differentials and expected real exchange rate movements. Previous empirical work that has attemptedto test for this relationship has found little empirical support. Using measures of real interest rates derived from indexed bonds, we find that real exchange ratesmove in the direction predicted by real interest rate differentials, and that previousnegative results are probably attributable to errors in estimating inflation expectations.
Hedging under Transaction Costs in Currency Markets: a Discrete‐Time Model
Authors: DELBAEN FREDDY , KABANOV YURI M. , VALKEILA ESKO
Published: March 2003

We consider a discrete‐time model of a currency market with transaction costs and give a description of initial endowments that allow the investor to hedge a contingent claim in various currencies by a self‐financing portfolio.
Arbitrage with Fractional Brownian Motion
Authors: Rogers L. C. G.
Published: March 2003

Fractional Brownian motion has been suggested as a model for the movement of log share prices which would allow long–range dependence between returns on different days. While this is true, it also allows arbitrage opportunities, which we demonstrate both indirectly and by constructing such an arbitrage. Nonetheless, it is possible by looking at a process similar to the fractional Brownian motion to model long–range dependence of returns while avoiding arbitrage.
The Market Model of Interest Rate Dynamics
Authors: Brace Alan , G¸atarek Dariusz , Musiela Marek
Published: March 2003

A class of term structure models with volatility of lognormal type is analyzed in the general HJM framework. The corresponding market forward rates do not explode, and are positive and mean reverting. Pricing of caps and floors is consistent with the Black formulas used in the market. Swaptions are priced with closed formulas that reduce (with an extra assumption) to exactly the Black swaption formulas when yield and volatility are flat. A two–factor version of the model is calibrated to the U.K. market price of caps and swaptions and to the historically estimated correlation between the forward rates.
Consumption and Portfolio Selection with Labor Income: A Continuous Time Approach
Authors: Koo Hyeng Keun
Published: March 2003

This paper studies the consumption and portfolio selection problem of an agent who is liquidity constrained and has uninsurable income risk. The paper investigates how the optimal consumption and asset allocation policies deviate from the case where the financial market is perfect, i.e., the case where there are no liquidity constraints and uninsurable income risk. In particular, the paper shows that, for a given level of financial wealth and labor income, optimal consumption is smaller and the optimal level of risk taking is lower in the case where the agent is liquidity constrained and has uninsurable income risk than in the case where the financial market is perfect. The paper also discusses how the agent assesses the value of lifetime labor income and relates this evaluation to optimal consumption and asset allocation policies.
Robustness of the Black and Scholes Formula
Authors: Karoui Nicole El , Jeanblanc‐Picquè Monique , Shreve Steven E.
Published: March 2003

Consider an option on a stock whose volatility is unknown and stochastic. An agent assumes this volatility to be a specific function of time and the stock price, knowing that this assumption may result in a misspecification of the volatility. However, if the misspecified volatility dominates the true volatility, then the misspecified price of the option dominates its true price. Moreover, the option hedging strategy computed under the assumption of the misspecified volatility provides an almost sure one‐sided hedge for the option under the true volatility. Analogous results hold if the true volatility dominates the misspecified volatility. These comparisons can fail, however, if the misspecified volatility is not assumed to be a function of time and the stock price. The positive results, which apply to both European and American options, are used to obtain a bound and hedge for Asian options.
Endogenous Random Asset Prices in Overlapping Generations Economies
Authors: Böhm Volker , Deutscher Nicole , Wenzelburger Jan
Published: March 2003

This paper derives a general explicit sequential asset price process for an economy with overlapping generations of consumers. They maximize expected utility with respect to subjective transition probabilities given by Markov kernels. The process is determined primarily by the interaction of exogenous random dividends and the characteristics of consumers, given by arbitrary preferences and expectations, yielding an explicit random dynamical system with expectations feedback. The paper studies asset prices and equity premia for a parametrized class of examples with CARA utilities and exponential distributions. It provides a complete analysis of the role of risk aversion and of subjective as well as rational beliefs.
Bounds on Derivative Prices in an Intertemporal Setting with Proportional Transaction Costs and Multiple Securities
Authors: Constantinides George M. , Zariphopoulou Thaleia
Published: March 2003

The observed discrepancies of derivative prices from their theoretical, arbitrage‐free values are examined in the presence of transaction costs. Analytic upper and lower bounds on the reservation write and purchase prices, respectively, are obtained when an investor's preferences exhibit constant relative risk aversion between zero and one. The economy consists of multiple primary securities with stationary returns, a constant rate of interest, and any number of American or European derivatives with, possibly, path‐dependent arbitrary payoffs.
A Comparison of Two Quadratic Approaches to Hedging in Incomplete Markets
Authors: Heath David , Platen Eckhard , Schweizer Martin
Published: March 2003

This paper provides comparative theoretical and numerical results on risks, values, and hedging strategies for local risk‐minimization versus mean‐variance hedging in a class of stochastic volatility models. We explain the theory for both hedging approaches in a general framework, specialize to a Markovian situation, and analyze in detail variants of the well‐known Heston (1993) and Stein and Stein (1991) stochastic volatility models. Numerical results are obtained mainly by PDE and simulation methods. In addition, we take special care to check that all of our examples do satisfy the conditions required by the general theory.
Relativism and the Interpretation of Texts
Authors: Gracia Jorg J. E.
Published: March 2003

This article examines the relativistic view according to which the interpretation of texts is a matter of opinion and one interpretation is as good as any other. It clarifies the question by establishing precise understandings of texts and interpretations and by introducing various distinctions between different kinds of interpretations based on their function. It argues that not all kinds of interpretations are relativistic, although all interpretations are relative, and that even those interpretations that are relativistic are not so in the same ways.
Historical Knowledge as Perspectival and Rational: Remarks on the Annales School's Idea of History
Authors: Tohaneanu Cecilia
Published: March 2003

There is an obvious parallel between foundationalism, which ignores history in working out the conditions of knowledge, and radical relativism, which contends that by virtue of its own historical character there is no way to choose among different interpretations, all of which are “equally good.” Might it not be, rather, that the recent historicist attack on the very idea of rationality is as damaging as foundationalist objections against the plurality of conceptual schemes or frameworks? Can philosophy maintain the traditional distinction between the form and content of knowledge, between rationality and historicity _ between doxa and episteme?