1886. External Validation of the 4C Mortality Score and the qSOFA for Different Variants of Concerns of SARS-CoV-2 Using Data of the NAPKON Cross-Sectoral Cohort Platform (SUEP)
Authors: Appel Katharina S , Maier Daniel , Hopff Sina M , Mitrov Lazar , Stecher Melanie , Scherer Margarete , Geisler Ramsia , Hagen Marina , Haas Kirsten , Reese Jens-Peter , Jiru-Hillmann Steffi , Miljukov Olga , Jakob Carolin E M , Nunes de Miranda Susana M , Meybohm Patrick , Hanß Sabine , Erber Johanna , Winter Christof , Tebbe Johannes J , Stellbrink Christoph , Khodamoradi Yascha , Schmidt Julia , Hanses Frank , Scheer Christian , Blaschke Sabine , Göpel Siri , Kluge Stefan , Witzke Oliver , Römmele Christoph , Krawczyk Marcin , Teufel Andreas , Schmid Jonas , Pape Daniel , Schütte Christian , Tausche Kristin , Milovanovic Milena , Krug Natalie , Tepasse Phil-Robin , Verket Marlo , Hamprecht Axel , Tasci Selcuk , Hower Martin , Jensen Björn-Erik O , Sprinzl Martin F , Zimmermann Tim , Vehreschild Jörg J 
Published: December 2022

Background

Numerous predictive clinical scores with varying discriminatory performance have been developed in the context of the current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. To support clinical application, we test the transferability of the frequently applied 4C mortality score (4C score) to the German prospective Cross-Sectoral Platform (SUEP) of the National Pandemic Cohort Network (NAPKON) compared to the non COVID-19 specific quick sequential organ failure assessment score (qSOFA). Our project aims to externally validate these two scores, stratified for the most prevalent variants of concerns (VOCs) of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Germany.

Methods

A total of 685 adults with polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-detected SARS-CoV-2 infection were included from NAPKON-SUEP. Patients were recruited from 11/2020 to 03/2022 at 34 university and non-university hospitals across Germany. Missing values were complemented using multiple imputation. Predictive performance for in-hospital mortality at day of baseline visit was determined by area under the curve (AUC) with 95%-confidence interval (CI) stratified by VOCs of SARS-CoV-2 (alpha, delta, omicron) (Figure 1). Figure 1:Study flow chart with inclusion criteria and methodological workflow.

Results

Preliminary results suggest a high predictive performance of the 4C score for in-hospital mortality (Table 1). This applies for the overall cohort (AUC 0.813 (95%CI 0.738-0.888)) as well as the VOC-strata (alpha: AUC 0.859 (95%CI 0.748-0.970); delta: AUC 0.769 (95%CI 0.657-0.882); omicron: AUC 0.866 (95%CI 0.724-1.000)). The overall mortality rates across the defined 4C score risk groups are 0.3% (low), 3.2% (intermediate), 11.6% (high), and 49.5% (very high). The 4C score performs significantly better than the qSOFA (Chi2-test: p=0.001) and the qSOFA does not seem to be a suitable tool in this context. Table 1:Discriminatory performance of the 4C Mortality Score and the qSOFA score within the validation cohort NAPKON-SUEP stratified by the Variant of Concerns of SARS-CoV-2.

Conclusion

Despite its development in the early phase of the pandemic and improved treatment, external validation of the 4C score in NAPKON-SUEP indicates a high predictive performance for in-hospital mortality across all VOCs. However, since the qSOFA was not specifically designed for this predictive issue, it shows low discriminatory performance, as in other validation studies. Any interpretations regarding the omicron stratum are limited due to the sample size.

Disclosures

Daniel Pape, Dr., Advanz Pharma Germany: Support for attending meetings and/or travel for ECCMID 2021 Martin Hower, n/a, MSD: Advisor/Consultant|Trogarzo: Advisor/Consultant|ViiV Healthcare: Advisor/Consultant Björn-Erik O. Jensen, Dr. med., GILEAD: Advisor/Consultant|GILEAD: Lectures, Travel|GSK: Lectures, Travel Jörg J. Vehreschild, Univ.-Prof. Dr. med., Ärztekammer Nordrhein: Honoraria|Academy for Infectious Medicine, University Manchester: Honoraria|Astellas Pharma: Grant/Research Support|Astellas Pharma: Honoraria|Back Bay Strategies: Honoraria|Basilea: Grant/Research Support|Basilea: Honoraria|Deutsches Zetrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR): Grant/Research Support|German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF): Grant/Research Support|German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF): Honoraria|German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF): Grant/Research Support|German Society for Infectious Diseases (DGI): Honoraria|German Society for Internal Medicine (DGIM): Honoraria|GILEAD: Advisor/Consultant|GILEAD: Grant/Research Support|GILEAD: Honoraria|Janssen: Honoraria|Merck / MSD: Grant/Research Support|Merck / MSD: Honoraria|Molecular Health: Honoraria|Netzwerk Universitätsmedizin: Honoraria|NordForsk: Honoraria|Pfizer: Advisor/Consultant|Pfizer: Grant/Research Support|Pfizer: Honoraria|Rigshospitalet Copenhagen: Grant/Research Support|Shionogi: Advisor/Consultant|Shionogi: Honoraria|University Hospital Aachen: Honoraria|University Hospital Freiburg/ Congress and Communication: Honoraria|University of Bristol: Grant/Research Support.