bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
On filtering in Markovian term structure models: an approximation approach
Authors: Chiarella Carl , Pasquali Sara , Runggaldier Wolfgang J.
Published: February 2003

We consider a parametrization of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) family of term structure of interest rate models that allows a finite-dimensional Markovian representation of the stochastic dynamics. This parametrization results from letting the volatility function depend on time to maturity and on two factors: the instantaneous spot rate and one fixed-maturity forward rate. Our main purpose is an estimation methodology for which we have to model the observations under the historical probability measure. This leads us to consider as an additional third factor the market price of interest rate risk, that connects the historical and the HJM martingale measures. Assuming that the information comes from noisy observations of the fixed-maturity forward rate, the purpose is to estimate recursively, on the basis of this information, the three Markovian factors as well as the parameters in the model, in particular those in the volatility function. This leads to a nonlinear filtering problem, for the solution of which we describe an approximation methodology, based on time discretization and quantization. We prove the convergence of the approximate filters for each of the observed trajectories.
Lagrangian observations of homogeneous random environments
Authors: Zirbel Craig L.
Published: February 2003

This article deals with the distribution of the view of a random environment as seen by an observer whose location at each moment is determined by the environment. The main application is in statistical fluid mechanics, where the environment consists of a random velocity field and the observer is a particle moving in the velocity field, possibly subject to molecular diffusion. Several results on such Lagrangian observations of the environment have appeared in the literature, beginning with the 1957 dissertation of J. L. Lumley. This article unites these results into a simple unified framework and rounds out the theory with new results in several directions. When the environment is homogeneous, the problem can be re-cast in terms of certain random mappings on the physical space that are based on the random location of the observer. If these mappings preserve the invariant measure on the physical space, then the view from the random location has the same distribution as the view from the origin. If these mappings satisfy the flow property and the environment is stationary, then the succession of Lagrangian observations over time forms a strictly stationary process. In particular, for motion in a homogeneous, stationary, and nondivergent velocity field, the Lagrangian velocity (the velocity of the particle) is strictly stationary, which was first observed by Lumley. In the compressible case, the distribution of a Lagrangian observation has a density with respect to the distribution of the view from the origin, and in some cases convergence in distribution of the Lagrangian observations as time tends to infinity can be shown.
On the asymptotic relationship between the overflow probability and the loss ratio
Authors: Kim Han S. , Shroff Ness B.
Published: February 2003

In this paper we study the asymptotic relationship between the loss ratio in a finite buffer system and the overflow probability (the tail of the queue length distribution) in the corresponding infinite buffer system. We model the system by a fluid queue which consists of a server with constant ratecand a fluid input. We provide asymptotic upper and lower bounds on the difference between log P{Q>x} and logPL(x) under different conditions. The conditions for the upper bound are simple and are satisfied by a very large class of input processes. The conditions on the lower bound are more complex but we show that various classes of processes such as Markov modulated and ARMA type Gaussian input processes satisfy them.
A martingale approach to strong convergence of the number of records
Authors: Gouet Raúl , López F. Javier , San Miguel Miguel
Published: February 2003

Let (Xn) be a sequence of independent, identically distributed random variables, with common distribution function F, possibly discontinuous. We use martingale arguments to connect the number of upper records from (Xn) with sums of minima of related random variables. From this relationship we derive a general strong law for the number of records for a wide class of distributions F, including geometric and Poisson.
Generalized vector multiplicative cascades
Authors: Barral Julien
Published: February 2003

We define the extension of the so-called ‘martingales in the branching random walk’ in R or C to some Banach algebras B of infinite dimension and give conditions for their convergence, almost surely and in the Lp norm. This abstract approach gives conditions for the simultaneous convergence of uncountable families of such martingales constructed simultaneously in C, the idea being to consider such a family as a function-valued martingale in a Banach algebra of functions. The approach is an alternative to those of Biggins (1989), (1992) and Barral (2000), and it applies to a class of families to which the previous approach did not. We also give a result on the continuity of these multiplicative processes. Our results extend to a varying environment version of the usual construction: instead of attaching i.i.d. copies of a given random vector to the nodes of the tree ∪n≥0N+n, the distribution of the vector depends on the node in the multiplicative cascade. In this context, when B=R and in the nonnegative case, we generalize the measure on the boundary of the tree usually related to the construction; then we evaluate the dimension of this nonstatistically self-similar measure. In the self-similar case, our convergence results make it possible to simultaneously define uncountable families of such measures, and then to estimate their dimension simultaneously.
Limit theorems for alternating renewal processes in the infinite mean case
Authors: Mitov K. V. , Yanev N. M.
Published: February 2003

The asymptotic behaviour of an occupation-time process associated with alternating renewal processes is investigated in the infinite mean cycle case. The limit theorems obtained extend some asymptotic results proved by Dynkin (1955), Lamperti (1958) and Erickson (1970) for the classical spent lifetime process. Some new phenomena are also presented.
A note on two-dimensional truncated long-range percolation
Authors: Menshikov M. , Sidoravicius V. , Vachkovskaia M.
Published: February 2003

We prove that for a class of anisotropic long-range percolation models for which connection probabilities p satisfy some regularity properties, and such that ∑z∈Z2p = ∞, percolation still will occur even if we truncate all edges whose length exceeds some constant (which in this case depends on the family of connectivity probabilities {p). We also present an example of dependent long-range percolation model for which this is not true.
Classification and lumpability in the stochastic Hopfield model
Authors: Paige R. L.
Published: February 2003

Connections between classification and lumpability in the stochastic Hopfield model (SHM) are explored and developed. A simplification of the SHM's complexity based upon its inherent lumpability is derived. Contributions resulting from this reduction in complexity include: (i) computationally feasible classification time computations; (ii) a development of techniques for enumerating the stationary distribution of the SHM's energy function; and (iii) a characterization of the set of possible absorbing states of the Markov chain associated with the zero temperature SHM.
Markov paths on the Poisson-Delaunay graph with applications to routeing in mobile networks
Authors: Baccelli F. , Tchoumatchenko K. , Zuyev S.
Published: February 2003

Consider the Delaunay graph and the Voronoi tessellation constructed with respect to a Poisson point process. The sequence of nuclei of the Voronoi cells that are crossed by a line defines a path on the Delaunay graph. We show that the evolution of this path is governed by a Markov chain. We study the ergodic properties of the chain and find its stationary distribution. As a corollary, we obtain the ratio of the mean path length to the Euclidean distance between the end points, and hence a bound for the mean asymptotic length of the shortest path.

We apply these results to define a family of simple incremental algorithms for constructing short paths on the Delaunay graph and discuss potential applications to routeing in mobile communication networks.
Compound Poisson approximation and the clustering of random points
Authors: Barbour A. D. , Månsson Marianne
Published: February 2003

Letnrandom points be uniformly and independently distributed in the unit square, and count the numberWof subsets ofkof the points which are covered by some translate of a small squareC. Ifn|C| is small, the number of such clusters is approximately Poisson distributed, but the quality of the approximation is poor. In this paper, we show that the distribution ofWcan be much more closely approximated by an appropriate compound Poisson distribution CP(λ1, λ2,…). The argument is based on Stein's method, and is far from routine, largely because the approximating distribution does not satisfy the simplifying condition thatiλibe decreasing.
Markov random fields and percolation on general graphs
Authors: Häggström Olle
Published: February 2003

LetGbe an infinite, locally finite, connected graph with bounded degree. We show thatGsupports phase transition in all or none of the following five models: bond percolation, site percolation, the Ising model, the Widom-Rowlinson model and the beach model. Some, but not all, of these implications hold without the bounded degree assumption. We finally give two examples of (random) unbounded degree graphs in which phase transition in all five models can be established: supercritical Galton-Watson trees, and Poisson-Voronoi tessellations of ℝdford≥ 2.
The proportion of triangles in a Poisson-Voronoi tessellation of the plane
Authors: Hayen Andrew , Quine Malcolm
Published: February 2003

By using an adaptation of the radial generation method, we give an integral formula for the proportion of triangles in a Poisson-Voronoi tessellation, which gives a value of 0.0112354 to 7 decimal places. We also obtain the first four moments of some characteristics of triangles.
Poisson limits for pairwise and area interaction point processes
Authors: Jammalamadaka S. Rao , Penrose Mathew D.
Published: February 2003

Suppose n particles xi in a region of the plane (possibly representing biological individuals such as trees or smaller organisms) have a joint density proportional to exp{-∑i<jϕ(n(xi-xj))}, with ℝd; a specified function of compact support. We obtain a Poisson process limit for the collection of rescaled interparticle distances as n becomes large. We give corresponding results for the case of several types of particles, representing different species, and also for the area-interaction (Widom-Rowlinson) point process of interpenetrating spheres.
Stationary countable dense random sets
Authors: Kendall Wilfrid S.
Published: February 2003

We study the probability theory of countable dense random subsets of (uncountably infinite) Polish spaces. It is shown that if such a set is stationary with respect to a transitive (locally compact) group of symmetries then any event which concerns the random set itself (rather than accidental details of its construction) must have probability zero or one. Indeed the result requires only quasi-stationarity (null-events stay null under the group action). In passing, it is noted that the property of being countable does not correspond to a measurable subset of the space of subsets of an uncountably infinite Polish space.
The Fréchet mean shape and the shape of the means
Authors: Le Huiling , Kume Alfred
Published: February 2003

We identify the Fréchet mean shape with respect to the Riemannian metric of a class of probability measures on Bookstein's shape space of labelled triangles and show, in contrast to the case of Kendall's shape space, that the Fréchet mean shape of the probability measure on Bookstein's shape space induced from independent normal distributions on vertices, having the same covariance matrix σ2I2, isnotnecessarily the shape of the means.
Estimation of the intensity of stationary flat processes
Authors: Schladitz Katja
Published: February 2003

The intensity of a stationary process ofk-dimensional affine subspaces (k-flats) of ℝdwith directional distribution from a given familyRis estimated by observing the process in a compact window. To this end we introduce a type of unbiased estimator (theR-estimator) using the available information about the directional distribution.

Special cases are estimators for the intensity of stationaryk-flat processes (1) with known directional distribution, (2) with directional distribution invariant with respect to a subgroup of the group of rotations in ℝdand (3) with unknown directional distribution.

We give sufficient conditions for theR-estimator to be the uniformly best unbiased estimator for the intensity of stationary Poissonk-flat processes with directional distribution inR. Equivalent statements for certain types of stationary Cox flat processes can be deduced directly from the results in the Poisson case.

Moreover, we consider stationary ergodic flat processes with directional distribution inRand general stationary flat processes with unknown directional distribution, all with a non-degeneracy property. In both cases our estimator turns out to be the uniformly best unbiased estimator from a restricted set of estimators. The result for general stationary flat processes is proved with the help of a factorization result for the second factorial moment measure.
Jump-type Fleming-Viot processes
Authors: Hiraba Seiji
Published: February 2003

In 1991 Perkins [7] showed that the normalized critical binary branching process is a time inhomogeneous Fleming-Viot process. In the present paper we extend this result to jump-type branching processes and we show that the normalized jump-type branching processes are in a new class of probability measure-valued processes which will be called ‘jump-type Fleming-Viot processes’. Furthermore we also show that by using these processes it is possible to introduce another new class of measure-valued processes which are obtained by the combination of jump-type branching processes and Fleming-Viot processes.
Limit theorems for the minimal position in a branching random walk with independent logconcave displacements
Authors: Bachmann Markus
Published: February 2003

Consider a branching random walk in which each particle has a random number (one or more) of offspring particles that are displaced independently of each other according to a logconcave density. Under mild additional assumptions, we obtain the following results: the minimal position in the nth generation, adjusted by its α-quantile, converges weakly to a non-degenerate limiting distribution. There also exists a ‘conditional limit’ of the adjusted minimal position, which has a (Gumbel) extreme value distribution delayed by a random time-lag. Consequently, the unconditional limiting distribution is a mixture of extreme value distributions.
The ruin problem and cover times of asymmetric random walks and Brownian motions
Authors: Chong K. S. , Cowan Richard , Holst Lars
Published: February 2003

A simple asymmetric random walk on the integers is stopped when its range is of a given length. When and where is it stopped? Analogous questions can be stated for a Brownian motion. Such problems are studied using results for the classical ruin problem, yielding results for the cover time and the range, both for asymmetric random walks and Brownian motion with drift.
Analyticity of iterates of random non-expansive maps
Authors: Baccelli François , Hong Dohy
Published: February 2003

This paper focuses on the analyticity of the limiting behavior of a class of dynamical systems defined by iteration of non-expansive random operators. The analyticity is understood with respect to the parameters which govern the law of the operators. The proofs are based on contraction with respect to certain projective semi-norms. Several examples are considered, including Lyapunov exponents associated with products of random matrices both in the conventional algebra, and in the (max, +) semi-field, and Lyapunov exponents associated with non-linear dynamical systems arising in stochastic control. For the class of reducible operators (defined in the paper), we also address the issue of analyticity of the expectation of functionals of the limiting behavior, and connect this with contraction properties with respect to the supremum norm. We give several applications to queueing theory.
A fluid queue with a finite buffer and subexponential input
Authors: Zwart A. P.
Published: February 2003

We consider a fluid model similar to that of Kella and Whitt [32], but with a buffer having finite capacityK. The connections between the infinite buffer fluid model and theG/G/1 queue established by Kella and Whitt are extended to the finite buffer case: it is shown that the stationary distribution of the buffer content is related to the stationary distribution of the finite dam. We also derive a number of new results for the latter model. In particular, an asymptotic expansion for the loss fraction is given for the case of subexponential service times. The stationary buffer content distribution of the fluid model is also related to that of the corresponding model with infinite buffer size, by showing that the two corresponding probability measures are proportional on [0,K) if the silence periods are exponentially distributed. These results are applied to obtain large buffer asymptotics for the loss fraction and the mean buffer content when the fluid queue is fed byNOn-Off sources with subexponential on-periods. The asymptotic results show a significant influence of heavy-tailed input characteristics on the performance of the fluid queue.
Asymptotic bounds for the fluid queue fed by sub-exponential On/Off sources
Authors: Dumas V. , Simonian A.
Published: February 2003

We consider a fluid queue fed by a superposition of a finite number of On/Off sources, the distribution of the On period being subexponential for some of them and exponential for the others. We provide general lower and upper bounds for the tail of the stationary buffer content distribution in terms of the so-called minimal subsets of sources. We then show that this tail decays at exponential or subexponential speed according as a certain parameter is smaller or larger than the ouput rate. If we replace the subexponential tails by regularly varying tails, the upper bound and the lower bound are sharp in that they differ only by a multiplicative factor.
Exact and asymptotic solutions to a PDE that arises in time-dependent queues
Authors: Knessl Charles
Published: February 2003

We consider a diffusing particle in one dimension that is subject to a time-dependent drift or potential field. A reflecting barrier constrains the particle's position to the half-line X ≥ 0. Such models arise naturally in the study of queues with time-dependent arrival rates, as well as in advection-diffusion problems of mathematical physics. We solve for the probability distribution of the particle as a function of space and time. Then we do a detailed study of the asymptotic properties of the solution, for various ranges of space and time. We also relate our asymptotic results to those obtained by probabilistic approaches, such as central limit theorems and large deviations. We consider drifts that are either piecewise constant or linear functions of time.
Queueing networks with instantaneous movements: a unified approach by quasi-reversibility
Authors: Chao Xiuli , Miyazawa Masakiyo
Published: February 2003

In this paper we extend the notion of quasi-reversibility and apply it to the study of queueing networks with instantaneous movements and signals. The signals treated here are considerably more general than those in the existing literature. The approach not only provides a unified view for queueing networks with tractable stationary distributions, it also enables us to find several new classes of product form queueing networks, including networks with positive and negative signals that instantly add or remove customers from a sequence of nodes, networks with batch arrivals, batch services and assembly-transfer features, and models with concurrent batch additions and batch deletions along a fixed or a random route of the network.
Hierarchical probability models and Bayesian analysis of mine locations
Authors: Cressie Noel , Lawson Andrew B.
Published: February 2003

Based on remote sensing of a potential minefield, point locations are identified, some of which may not be mines. The mines and mine-like objects are to be distinguished based on their point patterns, although it must be emphasized that all one sees is the superposition of their locations. In this paper, we construct a hierarchical spatial point-process model that accounts for the different patterns of mines and mine-like objects and uses posterior analysis to distinguish between them. Our Bayesian approach is applied to minefield data obtained from a multispectral video remote-sensing system.
A comparison between parametric and non-parametric approaches to the analysis of replicated spatial point patterns
Authors: Diggle Peter J. , Mateu Jorge , Clough Helen E.
Published: February 2003

The paper compares non-parametric (design-based) and parametric (model-based) approaches to the analysis of data in the form of replicated spatial point patterns in two or more experimental groups. Basic questions for data of this kind concern estimating the properties of the underlying spatial point process within each experimental group, and comparing the properties between groups. A non-parametric approach, building on work by Diggleet. al.(1991), summarizes each pattern by an estimate of the reduced second moment measure orK-function (Ripley (1977)) and compares meanK-functions between experimental groups using a bootstrap testing procedure. A parametric approach fits particular classes of parametric model to the data, uses the model parameter estimates as summaries and tests for differences between groups by comparing fits with and without the assumption of common parameter values across groups. The paper discusses how either approach can be implemented in the specific context of a single-factor replicated experiment and uses simulations to show how the parametric approach can be more efficient when the underlying model assumptions hold, but potentially misleading otherwise.
Modelling stochastic changes in curve shape, with an application to cancer diagnostics
Authors: Hobolth Asger , Vedel Jensen Eva B.
Published: February 2003

Often, the statistical analysis of the shape of a random planar curve is based on a model for a polygonal approximation to the curve. In the present paper, we instead describe the curve as a continuous stochastic deformation of a template curve. The advantage of this continuous approach is that the parameters in the model do not relate to a particular polygonal approximation. A somewhat similar approach has been used in Kentet. al.(1996), who describe the limiting behaviour of a model with a first-order Markov property as the landmarks on the curve become closely spaced; see also Grenander (1993). The model studied in the present paper is an extension of this model. Our model possesses a second-order Markov property. Its geometrical characteristics are studied in some detail and an explicit expression for the covariance function is derived. The model is applied to the boundaries of profiles of cell nuclei from a benign tumour and a malignant tumour. It turns out that the model with the second-order Markov property is the most appropriate, and that it is indeed possible to distinguish between the two samples.
Asymptotic independence of counts in isotropic planar point processes of phase-type
Authors: Remiche Marie-Ange
Published: February 2003

The isotropic planar point processes of phase-type are natural generalizations of the Poisson process on the plane. On the one hand, those processes are isotropic and stationary for the mean count, as in the case of the Poisson process. On the other hand, they exhibit dependence of counts in disjoint sets. In a recent paper, we have proved that the number of points in a square window has a Poisson distribution asymptotically as the window is located far away from the origin of the process. We extend our work to the case of a window of arbitrary shape.
A multi-dimensional martingale for Markov additive processes and its applications
Authors: Asmussen Søren , Kella Offer
Published: February 2003

We establish new multidimensional martingales for Markov additive processes and certain modifications of such processes (e.g., such processes with reflecting barriers). These results generalize corresponding one-dimensional martingale results for Lévy processes. This martingale is then applied to various storage processes, queues and Brownian motion models.
On stability of nonlinear AR processes with Markov switching
Authors: Yao J.-F. , Attali J.-G.
Published: February 2003

We investigate the stability problem for a nonlinear autoregressive model with Markov switching. First we give conditions for the existence and the uniqueness of a stationary ergodic solution. The existence of moments of such a solution is then examined and we establish a strong law of large numbers for a wide class of unbounded functions, as well as a central limit theorem under an irreducibility condition.
On the correlation structure of unilateral AR processes on the plane
Authors: Champagnat F. , Idier J.
Published: February 2003

In, Tory and Pickard show that a simple subclass of unilateral AR processes identifies with Gaussian Pickard random fields on Z2. First, we extend this result to the whole class of unilateral AR processes, by showing that they all satisfy a Pickard-type property, under which correlation matching and maximum entropy properties are assessed. Then, it is established that the Pickard property provides the ‘missing’ equations that complement the two-dimensional Yule-Walker equations, in the sense that the conjunction defines a one-to-one mapping between the set of AR parameters and a set of correlations. It also implies Markov chain conditions that allow exact evaluation of the likelihood and an exact sampling scheme on finite lattices.
Continuous-time monotone stochastic recursions and duality
Authors: Sigman Karl , Ryan Reade
Published: February 2003

A duality is presented for continuous-time, real-valued, monotone, stochastic recursions driven by processes with stationary increments. A given recursion defines the time evolution of a content process (such as a dam or queue), and it is shown that the existence of the content process implies the existence of a corresponding dual risk process that satisfies a dual recursion. The one-point probabilities for the content process are then shown to be related to the one-point probabilities of the risk process. In particular, it is shown that the steady-state probabilities for the content process are equivalent to the first passage time probabilities for the risk process. A number of applications are presented that flesh out the general theory. Examples include regulated processes with one or two barriers, storage models with general release rate, and jump and diffusion processes.
A general framework for some asymptotic reliability formulas
Authors: Cocozza-Thivent Christiane , Roussignol Michel
Published: February 2003

The authors prove that certain reliability formulas which link asymptotic availability, mean normal operation time, mean time between failures, mean number of failures over a period of time and asymptotic Vesely rate, and which are well known in the case of modelling using a Markov jump process or an alternating renewal process, are also true in the context of more general modelling.
Repairable models with operating and repair times governed by phase type distributions
Authors: Neuts Marcel F. , Pérez-Ocón Rafael , Torres-Castro Inmaculada
Published: February 2003

We consider a device that is subject to three types of failures: repairable, non-repairable and failures due to wear-out. This last type is also non-repairable. The times when the system is operative or being repaired follow phase type distributions. When a repairable failure occurs, the operating time of the device decreases, in that the lifetimes between failures are stochastically decreasing according to a geometric process. Following a non-repairable failure or after a previously fixed number of repairs occurs, the device is replaced by a new one. Under these conditions, the functioning of the device can be modelled by a Markov process. We consider two different models depending on whether or not the phase of the operational system at the instants of failure is remembered or not. For both models we derive the stationary distribution of the Markov process, the availability of the device, the rate of occurrence of the different types of failures, and certain quantities of interest.
Convergence of a global stochastic optimization algorithm with partial step size restarting
Authors: Yin G.
Published: February 2003

This work develops a class of stochastic global optimization algorithms that are Kiefer-Wolfowitz (KW) type procedures with an added perturbing noise and partial step size restarting. The motivation stems from the use of KW-type procedures and Monte Carlo versions of simulated annealing algorithms in a wide range of applications. Using weak convergence approaches, our effort is directed to proving the convergence of the underlying algorithms under general noise processes.
Probabilistic models of DNA sequence evolution with context dependent rates of substitution
Authors: Jensen Jens Ledet , Pedersen Anne-Mette Krabbe
Published: February 2003

We consider Markov processes of DNA sequence evolution in which the instantaneous rates of substitution at a site are allowed to depend upon the states at the sites in a neighbourhood of the site at the instant of the substitution. We characterize the class of Markov process models of DNA sequence evolution for which the stationary distribution is a Gibbs measure, and give a procedure for calculating the normalizing constant of the measure. We develop an MCMC method for estimating the transition probability between sequences under models of this type. Finally, we analyse an alignment of two HIV-1 gene sequences using the developed theory and methodology.
Optimal strategies in a risk selection investment model
Authors: Assaf David , Baryshnikov Yuliy , Stadje Wolfgang
Published: February 2003

We study the following stochastic investment model: opportunities occur randomly over time, following a renewal process with mean interarrival time d, and at each of them the decision-maker can choose a distribution for an instantaneous net gain (or loss) from the set of all probability measures that have some prespecified expected value e and for which his maximum possible loss does not exceed his current capital. Between the investments he spends money at some constant rate. The objective is to avoid bankruptcy as long as possible. For the case e>d we characterize a strategy maximizing the probability that ruin never occurs. It is proved that the optimal value function is a concave function of the initial capital and uniquely determined as the solution of a fixed point equation for some intricate operator. In general, two-point distributions suffice; furthermore, we show that the cautious strategy of always taking the deterministic amount e is optimal if the interarrival times are hyperexponential, and, in the case of bounded interarrival times, is optimal ‘from some point on’, i.e. whenever the current capital exceeds a certain threshold. In the case e = 0 we consider a class of natural objective functions for which the optimal strategies are non-stationary and can be explicitly determined.
Discretization of deflated bond prices
Authors: Glasserman Paul , Wang Hui
Published: February 2003

This paper proposes and analyzes discrete-time approximations to a class of diffusions, with an emphasis on preserving certain important features of the continuous-time processes in the approximations. We start with multivariate diffusions having three features in particular: they are martingales, each of their components evolves within the unit interval, and the components are almost surely ordered. In the models of the term structure of interest rates that motivate our investigation, these properties have the important implications that the model is arbitrage-free and that interest rates remain positive. In practice, numerical work with such models often requires Monte Carlo simulation and thus entails replacing the original continuous-time model with a discrete-time approximation. It is desirable that the approximating processes preserve the three features of the original model just noted, though standard discretization methods do not. We introduce new discretizations based on first applying nonlinear transformations from the unit interval to the real line (in particular, the inverse normal and inverse logit), then using an Euler discretization, and finally applying a small adjustment to the drift in the Euler scheme. We verify that these methods enforce important features in the discretization with no loss in the order of convergence (weak or strong). Numerical results suggest that these methods can also yield a better approximation to the law of the continuous-time process than does a more standard discretization.
The multiclass GI/PH/N queue in the Halfin-Whitt regime
Authors: Puhalskii A. A. , Reiman M. I.
Published: February 2003

We consider a multiserver queue in the heavy-traffic regime introduced and studied by Halfin and Whitt who investigated the case of a single customer class with exponentially distributed service times. Our purpose is to extend their analysis to a system with multiple customer classes, priorities, and phase-type service distributions. We prove a weak convergence limit theorem showing that a properly defined and normalized queue length process converges to a particular K-dimensional diffusion process, where K is the number of phases in the service time distribution. We also show that a properly normalized waiting time process converges to a simple functional of the limit diffusion for the queue length.
Markov interacting component processes
Authors: Chin Y. C. , Baddeley A. J.
Published: February 2003

A generalization of Markov point processes is introduced in which interactions occur between connected components of the point pattern. A version of the Hammersley-Clifford characterization theorem is proved which states that a point process is a Markov interacting component process if and only if its density function is a product of interaction terms associated with cliques of connected components. Integrability and superpositional properties of the processes are shown and a pairwise interaction example is used for detailed exploration.
The time of completion of a linear birth-growth model
Authors: Chiu S. N. , Yin C. C.
Published: February 2003

Consider the following birth-growth model in ℝ. Seeds are born randomly according to an inhomogeneous space-time Poisson process. A newly formed point immediately initiates a bi-directional coverage by sending out a growing branch. Each frontier of a branch moves at a constant speed until it meets an opposing one. New seeds continue to form on the uncovered parts on the line. We are interested in the time until a bounded interval is completely covered. The exact and limiting distributions as the length of interval tends to infinity are obtained for this completion time by considering a related Markov process. Moreover, some strong limit results are also established.
Systematic sampling on the circle and on the sphere
Authors: Gual-Arnau Ximo , Cruz-Orive Luis M.
Published: February 2003

Useful approximations have been developed along the years to predict the precision of systematic sampling for measurable functions of a bounded support in ℝd. Recently, the theory of systematic sampling on ℝ has received a thrust. In geometric sampling, design based unbiased estimators exist, however, which imply systematic sampling on the circle (𝕊1) and the semicircle (ℍ1); the planimeter estimator of an area, or the Buffon-Steinhaus estimator of curve length in the plane constitute popular examples. Over the last two decades, many other estimators of geometric measures have been obtained which imply systematic sampling also on the sphere (𝕊2). In this paper we adapt the theory available for non-periodic functions of bounded support on ℝ to periodic functions, and thereby to 𝕊1and ℍ1, and we obtain new estimators of the corresponding variance approximations. Further we consider - we believe for the first time - the problem of predicting the precision of systematic sampling in 𝕊2. The paper starts with a historical perspective, and ends with suggestions for further research.
Poisson-Voronoi tessellations in three-dimensional hyperbolic spaces
Authors: Isokawa Yukinao
Published: February 2003

We study Poisson-Voronoi tessellations in three-dimensional hyperbolic spaces, and give explicit expressions for mean surface area, mean perimeter length, and mean number of vertices of their cells. Furthermore we compare these mean characteristics with those for Poisson-Voronoi tessellations in three-dimensional Euclidean spaces. It is shown that, as the absolute value of the curvature of hyperbolic spaces increases from zero to infinity, these mean characteristics increase monotonically from those for the Euclidean case to infinity.
Estimating Fréchet means in Bookstein's shape space
Authors: Kume Alfred , Le Huiling
Published: February 2003

In [8], Le showed that procrustean mean shapes of samples are consistent estimates of Fréchet means for a class of probability measures in Kendall's shape spaces. In this paper, we investigate the analogous case in Bookstein's shape space for labelled triangles and propose an estimator that is easy to compute and is a consistent estimate of the Fréchet mean, with respect to sinh(δ/√2), of any probability measure for which such a mean exists. Furthermore, for a certain class of probability measures, this estimate also tends almost surely to the Fréchet mean calculated with respect to the Riemannian distance δ.
On the LLN for the number of vertices of a random convex hull
Authors: Massé Bruno
Published: February 2003

For several common parent laws, the number of vertices of a sample convex hull follows a kind of law of large numbers. We exhibit an example of a parent law which contradicts a general conjecture about this matter.
Variance reducing modifications for estimators of standardized moments of random sets
Authors: Picka Jeffrey D.
Published: February 2003

In the statistical analysis of random sets, it is useful to have simple statistics that can be used to describe the realizations of these sets. The cumulants and several other standardized moments such as the correlation and second cumulant can be used for this purpose, but their estimators can be excessively variable if the most straightforward estimation strategy is used. Through exploitation of similarities between this estimation problem and a similar one for a point process statistic, two modifications are proposed. Analytical results concerning the effects of these modifications are found through use of a specialized asymptotic regime. Simulation results establish that the modifications are highly effective at reducing estimator standard deviations for Boolean models. The results suggest that the reductions in variance result from a balanced use of information in the estimation of the first and second moments, through eliminating the use of observations that are not used in second moment estimation.
On the variance mean ratio in models of parasite distributions
Authors: Barbour Andrew D. , Pugliese Andrea
Published: February 2003

We study the variance-to-mean ratio of the distributions of parasites among hosts for some models of parasite infection, using the cohort approach. We consider a model with density dependence in parasite mortality, and two different formulations of disease induced host mortality. We show that the distributions of parasites, conditional on host survival, converge to quasi-stationary distributions as host age increases. When there is density dependence in parasite mortality, the limiting variance-to-mean ratio is less than 1 (an ‘under-dispersed’ distribution). In contrast, the two modes of disease induced host mortality show that either over- or underdispersed distributions may result.
On the lattice case of an almost-sure renewal theorem for branching random walks
Authors: Gatzouras Dimitris
Published: February 2003

We formulate and verify an almost-sure lattice renewal theorem for branching random walks, whose non-lattice analogue is originally due to Nerman. We also identify the limit in these renewal theorems (both lattice and non-lattice) as the limit of Kingman's well-known martingale multiplied by a deterministic factor.
Which design is better? Ehrenfest urn versus biased coin
Authors: Chen Yung-Pin
Published: February 2003

Two features are desired in designing a sequential clinical trial: randomness and balance. The former makes the ground for valid statistical inferences and the latter strengthens efficiency in inference procedures. Unfortunately randomness and balance can be in conflict with one another, and clinicians may be caught between the need for both of them. This paper raises an interesting question: can one design consistently achieve more balance than another when both designs own the same randomness? TheEhrenfest urn designis presented to allocate two treatments under a sequential clinical trial, and its balance and randomness properties are investigated. The design is compared with thebiased coin design with imbalance tolerance.
The formal theory of birth-and-death processes, lattice path combinatorics and continued fractions
Authors: Flajolet Philippe , Guillemin Fabrice
Published: February 2003

Classic works of Karlin and McGregor and Jones and Magnus have established a general correspondence between continuous-time birth-and-death processes and continued fractions of the Stieltjes-Jacobi type together with their associated orthogonal polynomials. This fundamental correspondence is revisited here in the light of the basic relation between weighted lattice paths and continued fractions otherwise known from combinatorial theory. Given that sample paths of the embedded Markov chain of a birth-and-death process are lattice paths, Laplace transforms of a number of transient characteristics can be obtained systematically in terms of a fundamental continued fraction and its family of convergent polynomials. Applications include the analysis of evolutions in a strip, upcrossing and downcrossing times under flooring and ceiling conditions, as well as time, area, or number of transitions while a geometric condition is satisfied.
Markov jump processes with a singularity
Authors: Barndorff-Nielsen Ole E. , Espen Benth Fred , Ledet Jensen Jens
Published: February 2003

Certain types of Markov jump processes x(t) with continuous state space and one or more absorbing states are studied. Cases where the transition rate in state x is of the form λ(x) = |x|δ in a neighbourhood of the origin in ℝd are considered, in particular. This type of problem arises from quantum physics in the study of laser cooling of atoms, and the present paper connects to recent work in the physics literature. The main question addressed is that of the asymptotic behaviour of x(t) near the origin for large t. The study involves solution of a renewal equation problem in continuous state space.
Revenue management with two market segments and reserved capacity for priority customers
Authors: Feng Y , Xiao B.
Published: February 2003

This paper studies a revenue management problem in which a finite number of substitutable commodities are sold to two different market segments at respective prices. It is required that a certain number of commodities are reserved for the high-price segment to ensure a minimum service level. The two segments are served concurrently at the beginning of the season. To improve revenues, management may choose to close the low-price segment at a time when the chance of selling all items at the high price is promising. The difficulty is determining when such a decision should be made. We derive the exact solution in closed form using the theory of optimal stopping time. We show that the optimal decision is made in reference to a sequence of thresholds in time. These time thresholds take both remaining sales season and inventory into account and exhibit a useful monotone property.
The synchronization of Poisson processes and queueing networks with service and synchronization nodes
Authors: Prabhakar Balaji , Bambos Nicholas , Mountford T. S.
Published: February 2003

This paper investigates the dynamics of a synchronization node in isolation, and of networks of service and synchronization nodes. A synchronization node consists of M infinite capacity buffers, where tokens arriving on M distinct random input flows are stored (there is one buffer for each flow). Tokens are held in the buffers until one is available from each flow. When this occurs, a token is drawn from each buffer to form a group-token, which is instantaneously released as a synchronized departure. Under independent Poisson inputs, the output of a synchronization node is shown to converge weakly (and in certain cases strongly) to a Poisson process with rate equal to the minimum rate of the input flows. Hence synchronization preserves the Poisson property, as do superposition, Bernoulli sampling and M/M/1 queueing operations. We then consider networks of synchronization and exponential server nodes with Bernoulli routeing and exogenous Poisson arrivals, extending the standard Jackson network model to include synchronization nodes. It is shown that if the synchronization skeleton of the network is acyclic (i.e. no token visits any synchronization node twice although it may visit a service node repeatedly), then the distribution of the joint queue-length process of only the service nodes is product form (under standard stability conditions) and easily computable. Moreover, the network output flows converge weakly to Poisson processes. Finally, certain results for networks with finite capacity buffers are presented, and the limiting behavior of such networks as the buffer capacities become large is studied.
Perfect simulation using dominating processes on ordered spaces, with application to locally stable point processes
Authors: Kendall Wilfrid S. , Møller Jesper
Published: February 2003

In this paper we investigate the application of perfect simulation, in particular Coupling from the Past (CFTP), to the simulation of random point processes. We give a general formulation of the method of dominated CFTP and apply it to the problem of perfect simulation of general locally stable point processes as equilibrium distributions of spatial birth-and-death processes. We then investigate discrete-time Metropolis-Hastings samplers for point processes, and show how a variant which samples systematically from cells can be converted into a perfect version. An application is given to the Strauss point process.