bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Proposed Amendment on the Reform of the IMF Executive Board and Fourteenth General Review of Quotas - Status of Acceptances and Consents
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

A stronger presumption of publication for all program-related documents could further increase publication rates, while defining prompt publication should help reduce publication lags. Streamlining external communication products could reduce the risk of inconsistent messaging. The review also presents new evidence on evenhandedness with now only few cases not fulfilling the criteria for modifications under the policy. It nevertheless suggests measures to strengthen monitoring in this area. The review sets out the Fund’s policies on confidential information, and proposes that staff systematically explains these policies in its interactions with country authorities.

In response to recent surveillance reforms, the review also proposes a new publication regime for multi-country documents. Staff sees the introduction of a publication regime for a new category of multi-country documents as the best way to ensure that the Fund publishes candid multilateral surveillance, while respecting members’ needs. Similarly, the modification rules for country documents will need to be adapted to take into account the implications of the Integrated Surveillance Decision (ISD).
Unconventional Monetary Policies - Recent Experiences and Prospects - Background Paper
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

This paper provides background information to the main Board paper, “The Role and Limits of Unconventional Monetary Policy.” This paper is divided in five distinct sections, each focused on a different topic covered in the main paper, though most relate to bond purchase programs. As a result, this paper centers on the experience of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), the Bank of England (BOE) and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), mostly leaving the European Central Bank (ECB) aside given its focus on restoring the functioning of financial markets and intermediation. Section A explores whether bond purchase programs were effective at decreasing bond yields and, if so, through which channels. Section B goes one step further in evaluating whether bond purchase programs had—or can be expected to have—significant effects on real growth and inflation. Section C studies the spillover effects of bond purchases on both advanced and emerging market economies, using very similar methods as introduced in the first section. Section D breaks from the immediate focus on bond purchases to discuss how inflation might decrease the debt burden in advanced economies, in light of possible pressures that could fall (or be perceived to fall) on central banks. Finally, Section E discusses the possible risks of exiting given the very large central bank balance sheets.
Mid-Term Evaluation Report on the Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative Project
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

This report presents the results of the mid-term evaluation of the Enhanced Data Dissemination Initiative (EDDI) financed by the United Kingdom’s Department for International Development (DFID) covering the period April 1, 2010 to September 30, 2012. The evaluation was conducted internally by the IMF in consultation with DFID. EDDI is a five-year project (April 2010–March 2015) implemented by the IMF to improve macroeconomic statistics in 25 African countries. The project includes modules for sub-groups of countries covering national accounts, monetary statistics, government finance statistics (GFS), balance of payments statistics (BOP), and harmonization of statistics in several regional organizations.

The mid-point of a five-year project is an appropriate time for all stakeholders of the project to step back and take stock of what has been accomplished in the first half of the project, what has gone well, what aspects have been disappointing, and what might be adjusted or changed to make the remainder of the project more effective in achieving its objectives.

To facilitate this process, questionnaires were developed to obtain feedback from three groups: counterparts in participating countries, IMF module managers and experts, and DFID country and regional advisors. Recommendations made by the stakeholders that will be followed up in the second half of the project are listed as bullets in italics below.
Jobs and Growth - Analytical and Operational Considerations for the Fund
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

Job creation and growth with inclusion are imperatives that resonate today in every country. While some advanced countries face the challenge of supporting aggregate demand with limited fiscal space in the aftermath of the Great Recession, many countries have to address ways to generate growth and create jobs in the face of the strong ongoing global megatrends of technological change, globalization, and significant shifts in demographic trends. The latter includes rapid population aging in some parts of the world, and the entry of a large number of new workers into the labor force in others. Low female labor force participation represents a significant missed opportunity to strengthen economic development and growth in many countries.
Review of the Policy on Debt Limits in Fund-Supported Programs
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

This review examines the experience with the policy on debt limits in Fund-supported programs across the membership and proposes possible reforms to strengthen the policy. The policy was last reformed in 2009 with a view to adapting it to the changing circumstances in low-income countries (LICs). Given its primary focus on LICs, the reform left the policy applying to the rest of the membership broadly unchanged.

The Fund’s debt limits policy has been in place since the 1960s. From the policy’s inception, concessional flows have been excluded from debt limits under the presumption that such financing was critical for LICs and posed only limited risks to debt sustainability. Over time, the exclusion of concessional flows has led to a bifurcation in the policy, with one branch focusing on members to whom concessional financing is normally available, and the other on those to whom it is not—a distinction which in practical terms has involved differentiating between LICs and non-LICs.
List of IMF Member Countries with Delays in Completion of Article IV Consultations or Mandatory Financial Stability Assessments over 18 Months
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

The following table lists the IMF members for which the Article IV consultation or the mandatory financial stability assessment has been delayed by more than 18 months. The delay is counted past the scheduled expected date, plus any applicable grace period.
From Banking to Sovereign Stress - Implications For Public Debt
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

This paper explores how banking sector developments and characteristics influence the propagation of risks from the banking sector to sovereign debt, including how they affect the extent of fiscal costs of banking crises when those occur. It then proposes practices and policies for the fiscal authorities to help manage the risks and enhance crisis preparedness.
Pan-African Banks - Opportunities and Challenges for Cross-Border Oversight
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

There has been a rapid expansion of pan-African banks (PABs) in recent years, with seven major PABs having a presence in at least ten African countries: three of these are headquartered in Morocco, two in Togo, and one each in Nigeria and South Africa. Additional banks, primarily from Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa, have a regional presence with operations in at least five countries. PABs have a systemic presence in around 36 countries. Overall, the PABs are now much more important in Africa than the long-established European and American banks.
Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy - Detailed Guidance on Instruments
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

This note covers considerations that can guide the staff’s policy advice on the use of a broad range of macroprudential tools. It discusses the transmission and likely effectiveness of these tools in mitigating systemic risks and the set of indicators that can be used in surveillance to assess the need for changes in macroprudential policy settings. This note is a supplement to the Staff Guidance Note on Macroprudential Policy.
Cross-Border Bank Resolution - Recent Developments
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

Developing an effective framework for cross-border resolution is a key priority in international regulatory reform. Large bank failures during the global financial crisis brought home the lack of adequate tools for resolving “too-big-to-fail” institutions. In cross-border cases, misaligned incentives and lack of robust mechanisms for resolution and cross-border cooperation left some country authorities with little choice but to take unilateral actions, which contributed to the high fiscal costs of the crisis and resulted in disorderly resolution in some cases
Review of the Flexible Credit Line, the Precautionary and Liquidity Line, and the Rapid Financing Instrument - Specific Proposals - Revised Annex I
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

This annex provides the key considerations for establishing the qualification framework to access financing under the FCL and PLL, with a view to promoting a predictable and evenhanded qualification process.
Review of the Flexible Credit Line, the Precautionary and Liquidity Line, and the Rapid Financing Instrument - Specific Proposals
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

This paper responds to Directors’ request at the time of the February discussions of the Review of the Flexible Credit Line (FCL), the Precautionary and Liquidity Line (PLL) and the Rapid Financing Instrument (RFI) for further analysis focusing on three key issues:
- The alignment of the FCL and PLL qualification criteria. The paper proposes a qualification framework for PLL arrangements based on the nine FCL criteria aiming to improve the transparency and predictability of PLL decisions, while maintaining the current qualification standards. The paper also proposes a refinement of the bank solvency criterion.
- The operationalization of an external stress index. The paper proposes a methodology to calculate a new index to strengthen discussions of a country’s external risks. Such an index would be presented to the Board at the time of requests for, or reviews under, FCL and PLL arrangements.
- The use of indicators of institutional strength. The paper argues that a limited set of new institutional indicators could be used to help broaden the indicators of institutional strength already identified in the FCL and PLL Operational Guidance Notes
Review of the Adequacy of the Fund's Precautionary Balances
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

This paper reviews the adequacy of the Fund’s precautionary balances, using the framework approved by the Board in 2010. The review takes place on a standard two year cycle. The paper discusses developments since the last review in 2012 and revisits several issues relating to the assessment of reserve adequacy that were discussed at that time.
Balance Sheet Analysis in Fund Surveillance - Reference Note
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

This note serves as a reference for balance sheet analysis, which should be read in conjunction with the IMF board paper on Balance Sheet Analysis in Fund Surveillance.

It provides a: compendium of good examples of balance sheet analysis from both bilateral and multilateral surveillance, covering a variety of topics; full listing of available balance sheet related macro datasets, including their relevance for surveillance, remaining limitations, and remedial measures being undertaken; summary of data availability for each Fund member; compilation of all the tools for balance sheet analysis developed by the Fund over the last decade; and toolkit featuring some new empirical applications that could help deepen balance sheet analysis in surveillance. These include illustrations of how to construct and use BSA matrices, general equilibrium and reduced form approaches, as well as tools to analyze sectoral vulnerabilities using micro data.
General Arrangements to Borrow
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

This notification summarizes the outcome of consultations with Washington-based representatives of participants in the General Arrangements to Borrow (GAB) on a possible renewal of the GAB decision. By way of background, the GAB was established in 1962 and is a standing agreement between the Fund and 11 participants to supplement the Fund’s quota resources (see Box 1). The GAB decision stipulates that the arrangements are subject to periodic renewal, and that decisions on renewal must be taken one year prior to expiration. The last renewal became effective in December 2013. Accordingly, the Fund would need to adopt a decision on renewal not later than twelve months before the end of the current period, i.e., not later than December 25, 2017.
Statement by the Managing Director on the Independent Evaluation Office Report on IMF Exchange Rate Policy Advice
Authors:   International Monetary Fund
Published: September 2019

I would like to thank the Independent Evaluation Office (IEO) for preparing this informative and timely report, which provides an update on the IMF’s progress in its approach to exchange rate policy advice since 2007. I am pleased with its main finding that the IMF has substantially overhauled its approach to exchange rate policy advice, and concur that some issues need our continued attention. I would like to note that management and staff remain fully committed to the role of the External Sector Report (ESR) in Fund surveillance.
The Long Shadow of the Global Financial Crisis
Authors: Igan Deniz , Moussawi Hala , Tieman Alexander , Zdzienicka Aleksandra , Dell'Ariccia Giovanni , Mauro Paolo
Published: September 2019

We track direct public interventions and public holdings in 1,114 financial institutions over the period 2007–17 in 37 countries based on publicly available information. We use aggregate official data to validate this new dataset and estimate the fiscal impact of interventions, including the value of asset holdings remaining in state hands at end-2017. Direct public support to financial institutions amounted to $1.6 trillion ($3.5 trillion including guarantees), with larger amounts allocated to lower capitalized and less profitable banks. As of end-2017, only a few countries had fully divested the initial support they provided during the crisis. Public holdings were divested faster in better capitalized, more profitable, and more liquid banks, and in countries where the economy recovered faster. In countries where the government stake remained high relative to the initial intervention, private investment and credit growth were slower, financial access, depth, efficiency, and competition were worse, and financial stability improved less.
France
Authors:   International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Published: September 2019

Growth slowed last year as the cyclical recovery ran its course and temporary domestic factors, coupled with slowing global growth, weighed on demand. Nonetheless, activity remained resilient relative to peers, and the labor market continued to improve. The fiscal deficit declined modestly, but public debt reached an all-time high. The government’s structural reform agenda is being put in place and growth is expected to gradually return to its potential level over the medium run. However, risks have risen, related to a disorderly Brexit, trade tensions, and a softening of activity in the euro area, but also to a slowdown in the domestic reform momentum.
Cameroon
Authors:   International Monetary Fund. African Dept.
Published: September 2019

Growth is estimated to have rebounded to 4 percent in 2018, supported by stronger-than-anticipated oil and gas production and Africa Cup of Nations (CAN) projects. The overall fiscal deficit declined by half to 2½ percent of GDP, and external buffers are being rebuilt. Public debt continues to increase, due to faster project disbursements.
Republic of Lithuania
Authors:   International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Published: September 2019

Lithuania needs sustained productivity gains to ensure higher living standards and convergence with Western Europe. This is the only way to address, or even reverse, negative demographic dynamics. Macroeconomic and financial stability is a pre-requisite for sustained growth and has been achieved through prudent policies and labor market flexibility. Nevertheless, significant and well-identified structural challenges have yet to be addressed with ambitiously designed and decisively implemented productivity-enhancing reforms. The current expansionary cyclical environment as well as strong fiscal and external positions provide an ideal opportunity to address these challenges.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations and emission in the newly constructed Belo Monte hydropower complex in the Xingu River, Amazonia
Authors: de Araújo Kleiton R. , Sawakuchi Henrique O. , Bertassoli Jr. Dailson J. , Sawakuchi André O. , da Silva Karina D. , Vieira Thiago B. , Ward Nicholas D. , Pereira Tatiana S.
Published: September 2019

Abstract. The Belo Monte hydropower complex located in the Xingu River is the largest
run-of-the-river (ROR) hydroelectric system in the world and has one of the
highest energy production capacities among dams. Its construction received
significant media attention due to its potential social and environmental
impacts. It is composed of two ROR reservoirs: the Xingu Reservoir (XR) in
the Xingu's main branch and the Intermediate Reservoir (IR), an artificial
reservoir fed by waters diverted from the Xingu River with longer water
residence time compared to XR. We aimed to evaluate spatiotemporal
variations in CO2 partial pressure (pCO2) and CO2 fluxes
(FCO2) during the first 2 years after the Xingu River impoundment
under the hypothesis that each reservoir has contrasting FCO2 and
pCO2 as vegetation clearing reduces flooded area emissions. Time of
the year had a significant influence on pCO2 with the highest average
values observed during the high-water season. Spatial heterogeneity
throughout the entire study area was observed for pCO2 during both low-
and high-water seasons. FCO2, on the other hand, only showed significant
spatial heterogeneity during the high-water period. FCO2 (0.90±0.47 and 1.08±0.62 µmol m2 d−1 for XR and IR,
respectively) and pCO2 (1647±698 and 1676±323 µatm for XR and IR, respectively) measured during the high-water season were
on the same order of magnitude as previous observations in other Amazonian
clearwater rivers unaffected by impoundment during the same season. In
contrast, during the low-water season FCO2 (0.69±0.28 and 7.32±4.07 µmol m2 d−1 for XR and IR, respectively) and
pCO2 (839±646 and 1797±354 µatm for XR and IR,
respectively) in IR were an order of magnitude higher than literature
FCO2 observations in clearwater rivers with naturally flowing waters.
When CO2 emissions are compared between reservoirs, IR emissions were
90 % higher than values from the XR during low-water season, reinforcing
the clear influence of reservoir characteristics on CO2 emissions.
Based on our observations in the Belo Monte hydropower complex, CO2
emissions from ROR reservoirs to the atmosphere are in the range of natural
Amazonian rivers. However, the associated reservoir (IR) may exceed natural
river emission rates due to the preimpounding vegetation influence. Since
many reservoirs are still planned to be constructed in the Amazon and
throughout the world, it is critical to evaluate the implications of
reservoir traits on FCO2 over their entire life cycle in order to
improve estimates of CO2 emissions per kilowatt for hydropower projects
planned for tropical rivers.
On the assimilation of environmental tracer observations for model-based decision support
Authors: Knowling Matthew J. , White Jeremy T. , Moore Catherine R. , Rakowski Pawel , Hayley Kevin
Published: September 2019

Abstract. It has been advocated that history-matching numerical models to a diverse range of observation data types, particularly including environmental tracer concentrations and their interpretations/derivatives (e.g., mean age), constitutes an effective and appropriate means to improve model forecast reliability. This study presents two regional-scale modeling case studies that directly and rigorously assess the value of discrete tritium concentration observations and tritium-derived mean residence time (MRT) estimates in two decision-support contexts; value herein is measured as the improvement (or otherwise) in the reliability of forecasts through uncertainty variance reduction and bias minimization as a result of assimilating tritium or tritium-derived MRT observations. The first case study (Heretaunga Plains, New Zealand) utilizes a suite of steady-state and transient flow models and an advection-only particle-tracking model to evaluate the worth of tritium-derived MRT estimates relative to hydraulic potential, spring discharge and river/aquifer exchange flux observations. The worth of MRT observations is quantified in terms of the change in the uncertainty surrounding ecologically-sensitive spring discharge forecasts via first-order second-moment analyses. The second case study (Hauraki Plains, New Zealand) employs paired simple/complex transient flow and transport models to evaluate the potential for assimilation-induced bias in simulated surface-water nitrate discharge to an ecologically-sensitive estuary system; formal data assimilation of tritium observations is undertaken using an iterative ensemble smoother. The results of these case studies indicate that, for the decision-relevant forecasts considered, tritium observations are of variable benefit and may induce damaging bias in forecasts; these biases are a result of an imperfect model's inability to properly and directly assimilate the rich information content of the tritium observations. The findings of this study challenge the unqualified advocacy of the increasing use of tracers, and diverse data types more generally, whenever environmental model data assimilation is undertaken with imperfect models. This study also highlights the need for improved imperfect-model data assimilation strategies. While these strategies will likely require increased model complexity (including advanced discretization, processes and parameterization) to allow for appropriate assimilation of rich and diverse data types that operate across a range of spatial and temporal scales commensurate with a forecast of management interest, it is critical that increased model complexity does not preclude the application of formal data assimilation and uncertainty quantification techniques due to model instability and excessive run times.
The sensitivity of modeled snow accumulation and melt to precipitation phase methods across a climatic gradient
Authors: Jennings Keith S. , Molotch Noah P.
Published: September 2019

Abstract. A critical component of hydrologic modeling in cold and
temperate regions is partitioning precipitation into snow and rain, yet
little is known about how uncertainty in precipitation phase propagates into
variability in simulated snow accumulation and melt. Given the wide variety
of methods for distinguishing between snow and rain, it is imperative to
evaluate the sensitivity of snowpack model output to precipitation phase
determination methods, especially considering the potential of snow-to-rain
shifts associated with climate warming to fundamentally change the hydrology
of snow-dominated areas. To address these needs we quantified the
sensitivity of simulated snow accumulation and melt to rain–snow
partitioning methods at sites in the western United States using the
SNOWPACK model without the canopy module activated. The methods in this
study included different permutations of air, wet bulb and dew point
temperature thresholds, air temperature ranges, and binary logistic
regression models. Compared to observations of snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE), the
binary logistic regression models produced the lowest mean biases, while
high and low air temperature thresholds tended to overpredict and
underpredict snow accumulation, respectively. Relative differences between
the minimum and maximum annual snowfall fractions predicted by the different
methods sometimes exceeded 100 % at elevations less than 2000 m in the
Oregon Cascades and California's Sierra Nevada. This led to ranges
in annual peak SWE typically greater than 200 mm,
exceeding 400 mm in certain years. At the warmer sites, ranges in snowmelt
timing predicted by the different methods were generally larger than 2 weeks, while ranges in snow cover duration approached 1 month and greater.
Conversely, the three coldest sites in this work were relatively insensitive
to the choice of a precipitation phase method, with average ranges in annual
snowfall fraction, peak SWE, snowmelt timing, and snow cover duration of less
than 18 %, 62 mm, 10 d, and 15 d, respectively. Average ranges in snowmelt
rate were typically less than 4 mm d−1 and exhibited a small
relationship to seasonal climate. Overall, sites with a greater proportion
of precipitation falling at air temperatures between 0 and
4 ∘C exhibited the greatest sensitivity to method selection,
suggesting that the identification and use of an optimal precipitation phase
method is most important at the warmer fringes of the seasonal snow zone.
A topographic index explaining hydrological similarity by accounting for the joint controls of runoff formation
Authors: Loritz Ralf , Kleidon Axel , Jackisch Conrad , Westhoff Martijn , Ehret Uwe , Gupta Hoshin , Zehe Erwin
Published: September 2019

Abstract. Surface topography is an important source of information about the functioning and form of a hydrological landscape. Because of its key role in explaining hydrological processes and structures, and also because of its wide availability at good resolution in the form of digital elevation models (DEMs), it is frequently used to inform hydrological analyses. Not surprisingly, several hydrological indices and models have been proposed for linking geomorphic properties of a landscape with its hydrological functioning; a widely used example is the “height above the nearest drainage” (HAND) index. From an energy-centered perspective HAND reflects the gravitational potential energy of a given unit mass of water located on a hillslope, with the reference level set to the elevation of the nearest corresponding river. Given that potential energy differences are the main drivers for runoff generation, HAND distributions provide important proxies to explain runoff generation in catchments. However, as expressed by the second law of thermodynamics, the driver of a flux explains only one aspect of the runoff generation mechanism, with the driving potential of every flux being depleted via entropy production and dissipative energy loss. In fact, such losses dominate when rainfall becomes runoff, and only a tiny portion of the driving potential energy is actually transformed into the kinetic energy of streamflow. In recognition of this, we derive a topographic index called reduced dissipation per unit length index (rDUNE) by reinterpreting and enhancing HAND following a straightforward thermodynamic argumentation. We compare rDUNE with HAND, and with the frequently used topographic wetness index (TWI), and show that rDUNE provides stronger discrimination of catchments into groups that are similar with respect to their dominant runoff processes. Our analysis indicates that accounting for both the driver and resistance aspects of flux generation provides a promising approach for linking the architecture of a
system with its functioning and is hence an appropriate basis for developing
similarity indices in hydrology.
Shape and dimension estimations of landslide rupture zones via correlations of characteristic parameters
Authors: Domej Gisela , Bourdeau Céline , Lenti Luca , Martino Salvatore
Published: September 2019

Abstract. For many geotechnical purposes, the proper estimation of shapes and dimensions of landslide rupture zones is of significant importance. Very often this exact delineation is difficult due to the lack of information on rupture zone extents in 3D. Based on a global landslide inventory, this study presents a refined statistical analysis correlating dimension-related and shape-related parameters characterizing a rupture zone in 3D to its volume. Dimension-parameters are approximated by linear regressions increasing with greater volumes, whereas shape-related parameters appear stable throughout the entire range of volumes. Revealing themselves as very stable, these correlations can be used, hence, to extrapolate from a distinct parameter to the volume of a landslide rupture zone. In a second stage, ratios of dimension-related parameters are correlated with rupture zone volumes. Also, this type of correlation delivers very stable results showing that ratios are constant throughout the entire range of volumes. Making use of this ratio consistency, it is possible to deduce one of the two parameters when the other one is given. This latter aspect seems to be promising for remote sensing surveys when initial rupture areas or rupture volumes should be delineated.
Three-dimensional numerical simulation of mud flow from a tailings dam failure across complex terrain
Authors: Yu Dayu , Tang Liyu , Chen Chongcheng
Published: September 2019

Abstract. A tailings dam accident can cause serious ecological disaster and property loss. Simulation of a tailings dam accident in advance is useful for understanding the tailings flow characteristics and assessing the possible extension of the impact area. In this paper, a three-dimensional (3-D) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) approach was proposed for reasonably and quickly predicting the flow routing and impact area of mud flow from a dam failure across 3-D terrain. The Navier–Stokes equations and the Bingham-Papanastasiou rheology model were employed as the governing equations and the constitutive model, respectively, and solved numerically in the finite volume method (FVM) scheme. The volume of ﬂuid (VOF) method was used to track the interface between the tailings and air. The accuracy of the CFD model and the chosen numerical algorithm were validated using an analytical solution of the channel flow problem and a laboratory experiment on the dam break problem reported in the literature. In each issue, the obtained results were very close to the analytical solutions or experimental values. The proposed approach was then applied to simulate two scenarios of tailings dam failures, one of which was the Feijão tailings dam that failed on 25 January 2019, and the simulated routing coincided well with the in situ investigation. Therefore, the proposed approach does well in simulating the flow phenomenon of tailings after a dam break, and the numerical results can be used for early warning of disasters and emergency response.
Temperature profiles, plumes and spectra in the surface layers of convective atmospheric boundary layers
Authors: McNaughton Keith G. , Chowdhuri Subharthi
Published: September 2019

Abstract. We survey temperature patterns and heat transport in convective boundary layers (CBLs) from the perspective that these are emergent properties of far-from-equilibrium, complex dynamical systems. We use the term 'plumes' to denote the temperature patterns, in much the same way that the term 'eddies' is used to describe patterns of motion in turbulent flows. We introduce a two-temperature (2T) toy model to connect the scaling properties of temperature gradients, temperature variance and heat transport to the geometric properties of plumes. We then examine temperature (T) probability density functions and w-T joint probability density functions, T spectra and wT cospectra observed both within and above the surface friction layer. Here w is vertical velocity. We interpret these in terms of the properties of the plumes that give rise to them. We focus first on the self-similarity property of the plumes above the SFL, and then introduce new scaling results from within the SFL, which show that T spectra and wT cospectra are not self-similar with height at small heights z/zs
Post-processing of seasonal predictions – Case studies using the EUROSIP hindcast data base
Authors: Roulin Emmanuel , Vannitsem Stéphane
Published: September 2019

Abstract. Seasonal predictions from climate models are increasingly invoked in various sectors like water management, energy and transport to cite a few. This study investigates the post-processing of the seasonal predictions of the EUROSIP multi-model system. The hindcasts comprise samples of 23 to 36 years and ensembles of 10 to 28 members depending on the 5 models included. Skill scores both deterministic and probabilistic are calculated in order to compare the impact of the post-processing and help selecting – if any – the multi- or single-model and the post-processing method best suited for a specific location, target season and lead-time. The presence of trends and the cross-validation setting add some complexity to the already heterogeneous database. This study focuses on six cases in Western Europe and the Mediterranean Region. The forecasts of three monthly averages of surface temperature and of sea mean sea level pressure are compared with the corresponding ERA Interim reanalysis data whereas the forecasts of precipitation are evaluated with the rain-gauge data from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre. The skills of seasonal predictions in the extra-tropics are limited and our results are no exception. There is a significant skill for the spring temperature forecast with model initiation in March for all but one case studies and the skill is extending to the initiation begin of February for Belgium. There is is also a significant skill for the summer temperature for the case studies in the Mediterranean region. For these area, the skill comes in large part from the global warming so that after having de-trended the data, a null improvement cannot be excluded. Autumn temperature in UK and in the Turkey is forecast with some skill as well as winter temperature in UK and Greece. Precipitation is even more difficult to forecast: the two spots where skill scores are significantly positive are Sweden and Greece during winter with initialisation on the first December. It has been shown that multi-model ensemble improve the skills in many cases and that taking into account the longest common period of hindcasts results in better and less uncertain skill scores. For all these cases, the post-processing method and the model or model combination resulting in the best skill score have been selected.
Effects of upwelling duration and phytoplankton growth regime on dissolved oxygen levels in an idealized Iberian Peninsula upwelling system
Authors: Bettencourt João H. , Rossi Vincent , Renault Lionel , Haynes Peter , Morel Yves , Garçon Véronique
Published: September 2019

Abstract. We apply a coupled modelling system composed of a state-of-the-art hydrodynamical model and a low complexity biogeochemical model to an idealized Iberian Peninsula upwelling system to identify the main drivers of dissolved oxygen variability and to study its response to changes in the duration of the upwelling season and in phytoplankton growth regime. We find that the export of oxygenated waters by upwelling front turbulence is a major sink for nearshore dissolved oxygen. In our simulations of summer upwelling, when phytoplankton population is generally dominated by diatoms whose growth is largely enhanced by nutrient input, net primary production and air-sea exchange compensate dissolved oxygen depletion by offshore export over the shelf. A shorter upwelling duration causes relaxation of upwelling winds and a decrease in offshore export, resulting in a slight increase of net dissolved oxygen enrichment in the coastal region as compared to longer upwelling durations. When phytoplankton is dominated by groups less sensitive to nutrient inputs, growth rates decrease and the coastal region becomes net heterotrophic. Together with the physical sink, this lowers the net oxygenation rate of coastal waters, that remains positive only because of air-sea exchanges. These findings help disentangling the physical and biogeochemical controls of dissolved oxygen in upwelling systems and, together with projections of increased duration of upwelling seasons and phytoplankton community changes, suggest that the Iberian coastal upwelling region may become more vulnerable to hypoxia and deoxygenation.
Debris cover and the thinning of Kennicott Glacier, Alaska, Part B: ice cliff delineation and distributed melt estimates
Authors: Anderson Leif S. , Armstrong William H. , Anderson Robert S. , Buri Pascal
Published: September 2019

Abstract. The mass balance of many valley glaciers is enhanced by the presence of ice cliffs within otherwise continuous debris cover. We assess the effect of debris and ice cliffs on the thinning of Kennicott Glacier in three companion papers. In Part A we report in situ measurements from the debris-covered tongue. Here, in Part B, we develop a method to delineate ice cliffs using high-resolution imagery and use empirical relationships from Part A to produce distributed mass balance estimates. In Part C we describe feedbacks that contribute to rapid thinning under thick debris. Ice cliffs cover 11.7 % of the debris-covered tongue, the most of any glacier studied to date, and they contribute 19 % of total melt. Ice cliffs contribute an increasing percentage of melt the thicker the debris cover. In the lowest 4 km of the glacier, where debris thicknesses are greater than 20 cm, ice cliffs contribute 40 % of total melt. Surface lake coverage doubled between 1957 and 2009, but lakes do not occur across the full extent of the zone of maximum glacier thinning. Despite abundant ice cliffs and expanding surface lakes, average melt rates are suppressed by debris, the pattern of which appears to reflect the debris thickness-melt relationship (or Østrem’s curve). This suggests that, in addition to melt hotspots, the decline in ice discharge from upglacier is an important contributor to the thinning of Kennicott glacier under thick debris.
“É NORMAL NÃO SER REPRESENTADA”: O APRENDIZADO DE INGLÊS POR UMA ESTUDANTE LIDA COMO NEGRA NO CENÁRIO UNIVERSITÁRIO
Authors: Barbosa Aline Nascimento
Published: September 2019

Embora a busca pelo aprendizado de uma língua estrangeira/adicional parta de diversos grupos com demarcadores sociais bem definidos, a falta de recortes torna invisíveis experiências e trajetórias de sujeitos que compõem grupos marginalizados, criando uma aparente homogeneidade que representa somente o grupo dominante. Assim, é de suma importância considerar diferentes aspectos identitários do aprendiz ao ouvir o que este teria a dizer sobre seu processo de aprendizagem, e é através de suas narrativas que entramos em contato com suas trajetórias. Este presente trabalho busca, então, elencar e analisar relatos e narrativas de uma participante negra, universitária, estudante do curso de Letras Português-Inglês em uma universidade pública de Curitiba. O trabalho está inserido na área da Linguística Aplicada, e a metodologia utilizada é qualitativa e analítica. Para tal, foram utilizadas como procedimento de geração de dados entrevistas semiestruturadas, relacionadas a observação de aulas, diários e conversas informais. Após os relatos individuais, os dados gerados são discutidos e analisados a fim de responder a pergunta de pesquisa que busca compreender como alunos universitários, lidos como negros, de baixa renda, estudantes de Letras-Inglês em Curitiba, entendem o papel da raça e da classe social em suas trajetórias como aprendizes de língua inglesa.
REFLEXÕES SOBRE A IDENTIDADE DE PESSOAS TRANS EM NOTÍCIAS ONLINE: UMA ANÁLISE DO CONTEÚDO TEMÁTICO
Authors: Guilherme Maria Lígia Freire
Published: September 2019

A presente pesquisa busca analisar os modos como questões referentes à identidade de sujeitos trans são discursivizadas em notícias online a partir de seus conteúdos temáticos. Para tanto, tomou-se o Decreto Nº 8.727 como ponto de partida, além de dez notícias do jornalismo online. O olhar para os dados fez emergir algumas regularidades a respeito da discursivização da identidade de sujeitos trans, sendo essa por vezes rejeitada ou não reconhecida. Este estudo se deu por meio de uma Análise Dialógica do Discurso (ADD), ancorada teórico-metodologicamente nos estudos do Círculo de Bakhtin.
IDENTIDADES: RELAÇÃO ENTRE AS MASCULINIDADES, GÊNERO E VIOLÊNCIA
Authors: Silva Carla Simone
Published: September 2019

Este artigo é um fragmento de um estudo mais amplo que buscou fazer a análise das práticas discursivas de homens apenados pela Lei Maria da Penha, em razão da prática de violência doméstica e familiar contra a mulher, encaminhados para um grupo reflexivo, de acordo com o previsto nos artigos 35 e 45 da mesma Lei.  Os principais resultados, que são destacados neste texto, apontaram para a importância do trabalho dos grupos reflexivos de homens para o enfrentamento da violência contra a mulher como uma forma efetiva de desconstrução de masculinidades muito relacionadas à violência e a um modelo de ideal hegemônico, heteronormativo e patriarcal, apresentando-se outras possibilidades de masculinidades e formas de solução de conflitos.
Gender Differences in the Dream Content of Children and Adolescents: The UK Library Study
Authors: Schredl Michael , Struck Verena S. , Schwert Christine , Blei Melanie , Henley-Einion Josie , Blagrove Mark
Published: September 2019

Although gender differences in the dreams of adults have been studied extensively, large-scale studies in children and adolescents are scarce. The UK Library Study collected 1,995 most recent dreams of children and adolescents. Boys reported more physical aggression and fewer female characters in their dreams, whereas indoor settings were more prominent in girls’ dreams, results that are consistent with the findings in adults and the continuity hypothesis of dreaming. The study indicates that dream content analysis is a valuable tool for studying the inner world of children and adolescents because dreams reflect their waking life experiences, thoughts, and concerns. It would be informative to include measures of waking life aggression, frequency of social contacts, and leisure time activities to provide evidence for direct links between waking and dreaming.
Social Anxiety and Alexithymia in Relation to Problematic Drinking and Theory of Mind
Authors: Lyvers Michael , Scott Kaitlin , Thorberg Fred Arne
Published: September 2019

Cognitive models of social anxiety posit inaccurate appraisal of emotional states as a core feature. Such inaccurate appraisal also characterizes alexithymia, a trait defined by difficulties in identifying and describing emotional feelings and an externally oriented thinking style. Because both social anxiety and alexithymia have been linked to alcohol misuse and deficient theory of mind, the degree to which alexithymia might account for these associations with social anxiety merits investigation. The current study explored relationships between social anxiety (specifically social interaction anxiety), alexithymia, problematic drinking, and theory of mind after controlling for comorbid depression in a nonclinical sample of 242 participants (93 men) ranging in age from 18 to 35 years (M = 23.22 years, SD = 4.48). They completed an online questionnaire battery that included well-known measures of social anxiety (Social Interaction Anxiety Scale), alexithymia (Toronto Alexithymia Scale 20), theory of mind (Reading the Mind in the Eyes Test Revised), depression (Depression Anxiety Stress Scales-Depression Scale), and problematic drinking (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test). In hierarchical regression models, social anxiety predicted alexithymia even after depression and demographic factors were controlled for; alexithymia mediated relationships between social anxiety and both problematic drinking and deficient theory of mind. Assessment of alexithymia in those with social anxiety may potentially offer insight and directions for treatment.
Development of the Lying in Everyday Situations Scale
Authors: Hart Christian L. , Jones Jelisa M. , Terrizzi John A. , Curtis Drew A.
Published: September 2019

Deception researchers have developed various scales that measure the use of lying in specific contexts, but there are limited tools that measure the use of lies more broadly across the various contexts of day-to-day life. We developed a questionnaire that assesses the use of various forms of lying, including protecting others, image enhancement, saving face, avoiding punishment, vindictiveness, privacy, entertainment, avoiding confrontation, instrumental gain, and maintaining and facilitating relationships. The results of a factor analysis brought our original 45-item scale down to a two-dimensional, 14-item scale that we have titled the Lying in Everyday Situations (LiES) scale. In three studies, the concurrent validity of the scale was assessed with several domain-specific lying scales, two Machiavellianism scales, a social desirability scale, and reports of actual lie frequency over a 24-hour period. The scale was also assessed for interitem consistency (Cronbach’s α) and test-retest reliability. We found that the LiES scale was a reliable and valid measure of lying. The LiES scale may be a useful tool for assessing the general tendency to lie across various contexts.
Corporate Governance Mechanisms, Whistle-Blowing Policy and Real Earnings Management
Authors: Al-Absy Mujeeb Saif Mohsen , Ku Ismail Ku Nor Izah , Chandren Sitraselvi
Published: September 2019

The purpose of this study is to investigate whether the mechanisms of corporate governance (CG) in firms that have a policy of whistle-blowing (WBP) are more effective in mitigating real earnings management (REM) than those without WBP. To achieve this objective, the sample of the study, 288 Malaysian firms for the years 2013 to 2015, have been grouped into firms with and without WBP. In addition, the Roychowdhury Models were used to determine the abnormal levels of the REM. The results show that most of the CG mechanisms, i.e., audit committee (AC) size, AC meetings, AC independence and auditor size in firms with WBP are found to be significantly associated with low level of REM which supporting agency and resource dependence theories. However, only board independence and ownership concentration are found to be significantly associated with high level of REM. Regarding firms without WBP, most of the CG mechanisms, i.e., AC size, women in the AC, AC accenting expertise and ownership concentration, are found to be significantly associated with high level of REM. However, only board meetings, AC multiple directorships and auditor size are found to be significantly associated with low level of REM. The finding of this study suggests that having WBP in a firm could improve the monitoring role of the CG mechanisms towards mitigating REM. However, strengthening the role of WBP is still necessary to improve the efficiency of the monitoring role of CG mechanisms. Hence, there is a need for more policy and law that could encourage whistle-blowers to disclose any misconducts in firms and at the same time, prevent management from undermining the effectiveness of the whistle-blowing policy. The findings of this study will enrich the body of literature where there is no previous study has been done in respect of REM.