bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A atuação eleitoral do PCB como representação popular: um estudo de caso – as eleições de 1954 em São Paulo
Authors: Pereira Neto Murilo Leal
Published: September 2022

O presente artigo aponta o reconhecimento, pela bibliografia especializada, do PCB como representação majoritária do eleitorado operário em seu período de legalidade no pós-guerra nas regiões mais industrializadas do país. Demonstra como essa condição se construía na prática das campanhas eleitorais, na forma de promover o alistamento de novos eleitores, de financiar as campanhas e no lançamento de candidatos operários e populares. Argumenta que, em função dessa representação do “demos”, o veto à atuação legal do PCB em 1947 e a seus candidatos por outras legendas nas eleições seguintes constituiu um dos elementos centrais da “internalização da Guerra Fria”, que restringiu o potencial democrático aberto de 1945 a 1947 a uma ordem liberal de classe.
Qualidade ambiental e aspectos para a humanização de uma UTI neonatal: um estudo de caso em Florianópolis (SC)
Authors: Bassoli Pedroso Fernanda , De Souza Pinto Isamara Gabriela , De Farias Alves Keli , Furlan Romi Maria Carolina , Mitsuo Nagasaki Tiago , Biasi Cavalcanti Patrícia , Longhinotti Felippe Maíra
Published: September 2022

O presente artigo apresenta os resultados de um estudo de caso realizado em uma UTI Neonatal pública de Florianópolis (SC), avaliando problemas ambientais recorrentes. A partir desse estudo, objetivou-se refletir especificamente sobre a qualidade ambiental e os aspectos da humanização de UTIs neonatais. Foi adotado um enfoque multi-metodológico centrado no ambiente e nas pessoas, que envolveu técnicas de revisão de literatura, visitas exploratórias, levantamentos físicos, Diário Pessoal, observações sistemáticas e Análise Walkthrough. Os resultados obtidos foram sistematizados nas categorias temáticas ‘conforto ambiental’, ‘espaço físico e funcionalidade’, e ‘humanização’, que permitiram uma análise abrangente, qualitativa e exploratória da unidade avaliada, suas principais problemáticas e potencialidades. Espera-se, desse modo, contribuir com o planejamento de UTIs neonatais mais responsivas aos seus usuários.
Proposta de um índice para o mercado de trabalho brasileiro
Authors: Freitas Andreia Pereira de , Moraes Gustavo Inácio de
Published: September 2022

Esta pesquisa propõe-se a criar um indicador consolidado para as condições do mercado de trabalho, através de um índice/nota, que reflita a melhora ou a piora de situação deste mercado. Como consequência, posicionando e possibilitando o seu acompanhamento no decorrer do tempo, para além da taxa de desemprego. Para criação do índice síntese do mercado de trabalho (ISMT), utilizam-se os dados da PNAD Contínua, Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios, do período do 1º. T de 2012 ao 4º. T de 2018. O ISMT além de comunicar de forma simples e direta, permite um olhar por estado das condições do mercado de trabalho.
A função do jurista na defesa da seguridade social e o argumento do cost of rights
Authors: Mansur João Paulo
Published: September 2022

Este artigo estuda o orçamento da seguridade social entre os anos de 2013 e 2018 em busca dos fundamentos com que a contabilidade estatal alega que a seguridade social é deficitária. Documentos oficiais são confrontados criticamente com relatórios de auditores fiscais independentes da Receita Federal. Será possível perceber como políticas públicas e manobras jurídico-contábeis são utilizadas pelo Governo Federal para fragilizar o orçamento da seguridade, difundindo o mito do déficit, que se torna justificativa da agenda das reformas sociais. Como conclusão desses resultados, espera-se oferecer ao auditório jurídico fundamentos concretos para intervenções judiciais na realidade, uma vez que parece esgotada a eficácia argumentativa de qualquer discurso que não adentre o terreno do cost of rights para defender os direitos sociais.
Diretrizes para a promoção de políticas públicas através das compras públicas
Authors: Ferreira Júnior Ednaldo Silva
Published: September 2022

Os contratos públicos, cada vez mais, são percebidos como um instrumento útil à promoção de políticas públicas, dos mais variados tipos. Porém, tal possibilidade gera o questionamento: mas então como se utilizar dos contratos para efetivar políticas públicas? O presente artigo busca responder a esta pergunta tanto sob uma ótica individual, examinando as diferentes formas através das quais um determinado procedimento licitatório ou contrato podem ser instrumentalizados em prol de políticas públicas, quanto sob uma ótica global, enumerando diretrizes úteis à uma instrumentalização sistemática das compras públicas. Para tanto, foi realizada uma revisão bibliográfica da literatura nacional e estrangeira com o fim de sintetizar os principais instrumentos identificados pela doutrina para a instrumentalização dos contratos, bem como eventuais críticas à sua aplicação, buscando verificar o estado da arte da matéria nacional e internacionalmente.
Avanços no debate da judicialização da saúde no contexto latino-americano: um olhar para a implementação da política pública
Authors: Hanai Jorge Leal , Silveira Suely De Fátima Ramos , Cunha Nina Rosa da Silveira
Published: September 2022

A judicialização do direito à saúde apresenta-se como fenômeno em que mecanismos jurídicos são utilizados por cidadãos para reivindicar ao Estado produtos e serviços públicos de saúde. Incorporando como dado a existência de dissonâncias entre a formulação e a implementação de políticas públicas deste sobrecarregado setor, este artigo objetiva identificar as principais discussões na academia vis-à-vis a necessária atuação conjunta entre o Poder Executivo e Judiciário. Trata-se de discussões com o recorte para a implementação de políticas públicas de saúde situadas no contexto de países latino americanos. Metodologicamente, lança-se mão da bibliometria e da Methodi InOrdinatio, cuja análise de 122 artigos identificou que a abordagem da Judicialização 2.0 e a criação de Núcleos de Assistência Técnica (NAT) apresentam-se como soluções institucionais centrais ao processo de implementação. Em complemento, os trabalhos da comissão e da corte Interamericana de Direitos Humanos são analisados à luz da “arena internacional possível” ao fortalecimento do Judiciário colaborador e não interventor neste processo. O ineditismo dos seus achados repousa na sistematização dos principais debates acadêmicos que orbitam em matéria de saúde, cuja relevância gerencial informa a acadêmicos e gestores públicos (implementadores) a extração das experiências vivenciadas pelos entes da federação, inspirações e frameworks úteis para a articulação entre a formulação e a implementação das políticas públicas de saúde.
مشكلات الطلاب فى تعليم مهارة الكلام عند برنامج صوت العرب بجامعة أم القرى الإسلامي
Authors: Abrar Muh. , Firnanda Muhammad , Anwar Emnis
Published: September 2022

دور اللغة مهم جدا للحياة الاجتماعية ليسهل التفاعل فيها، كما أن دور اللغة العربية بالنسبة للمسلمين على وجه الخصوص مهم جدا ، لأن اللغة العربية هي المفتاح الافتتاحي للفهم والدراسات الإسلامية من مصادرها الأصلية ( القرآن والحديث) تجريبيا اللغة العربية هي اللغة المستخدمة من قبل الدول العربية والمجتمع الإسلامي. تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى التعرف على المشكلات الموجودة في تعليم اللغة العربية وخاصة في تعليم مهارة الكلام للطلاب السعوديين بجامعة أم القرى الإسلامية وإيجاد حلول للتغلب على هذه المشاكل. استخدم الباحث في هذه الدراسة المنهج الوصفي النوعي، وهو أسلوب بحث يصف بالتفصيل نتائج الدراسة. يمكن للباحثين أن يستنتجوا من نتائج الدراسة أن: هناك 3 صيغ مشكلة في هذه الدراسة يمكن للباحثين استنتاجها وهي: 1. مشاكل الطلاب في تعلم مهارة كلام في برنامج صوت العرب في معهد أم القرى الإسلامي ، 2. الحلول و 3. الجهود المبذولة للتغلب على مشاكل الطلاب في التحدث باللغة العربية. 3. العوامل الداعمة والمثبطة لتعلم مهارة الكلام للطلاب في جامعة أم القرى الإسلامية. خلقت نتائج البحث من صياغة المشكلة نتيجة تشمل: عدم وجود دعم من أقرب الناس، وعدم التمكن من المفردات العربية ، وزيادة الوعي والنشاط لمسؤولي جمعية البرنامج الدراسي وغيرهم من طلاب تعليم اللغة العربية يلعبون دور مهم في خلق بيئة عربية ، فضلا عن توفير بيئة خاصة للغة العربية والموارد البشرية لطلاب تعليم اللغة العربية ، والحرم الجامعي أم القرى هو حرم إسلامي هو الداعم الرئيسي للطلاب الذين يجب أن يكونوا أكثر نشاطا بالعربية
RAHASIA ISIM MUFRAD, MUTSANA DAN JAMAK DALAM BAHASA ARAB
Authors: Arrobi Jimatul , Karya Suhada Oman
Published: September 2022

Diantara karakteristik bahasa Arab adalah adanya perubahan bentuk dari mufrad, mustanna dan jamak. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengungkap rahasia morfosemantik dari isim mufrad, mustanna dan jamak. Penelitian ini dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode deskriptif dengan model analisis isi. Adapun yang menjadi sumber datanya adalah sejumlah kosakata isim mufrad, mustanna dan jamak yang diperoleh dari berbagai sumber dan literatur kesimpulan dari penelitian ini adalah terdapat rahasia dan keunikan pada morfosemantik dari isim mufrad, mustanna dan jamak. Diantaranya 1). kata jamak yang tidak ada bentuk mufrad’nya, 2). kata yang bermakna jamak dan tidak ada bentuk mufrad’nya, 3). kata yang bermakna jamak dan tidak ada bentuk mufrad  dari lafadznya namun ada bentuk mufrad dari maknanya, 4). kata yang memiliki makna mufrad dan jamak. 5). kata yang bermakna jamak dengan ta’ marbuthoh. 6). kata mufrad yang bermakna jamak dan bentuk mufradnya dengan ta’ marbuthoh,  7). Kata yang bermakna jamak dan bentuk mufradnya dengan ya nisbat, 8). kata mufrad yang memiliki mutsana tapi tidak memiliki bentuk jamak dari lafadznya, 9). kata mufrad yang memiliki jamak tapi tidak memiliki mutsanna, 10). kata mustanna yang tidak memiliki mufradnya
التشبه والكناية بين النظر و التطبيق
Authors: Abdul Hamid Sarmawi Hudaili
Published: September 2022

هذا البحث في دراسة علم البلاغة، إذ أنه يدرس موضوع التشبيه والكناية بين النظر والتطبيق، كثر من المباحث يتكلم عنهما ولكن لم يتحط ميسورة ودقيقية.

يهدف هذا البحث الى تعريف القارئ على دلالة اللفظ العربي ومعانيه، وأن يلمس القارئ بنفسه اتساع لغة القرآن الكريم  والحديث الشريف: معرفة ألفاظ التشبيه والكناية فيهما.

وقد اعتمد البحث عل المنهج الإستقرائي في تتبع اقسام ومسائل, ثم عرضت بالأمثلة مع بيانها
Sustainable human capital strategy for White youth in a transformed South African Navy
Authors:   , Kubu Asiel Elias
Published: September 2022

On its inception to power, the Government of National Unity inherited a society marked by profound social and economic inequalities as well as serious racial, political and social divisions. In forging ahead with the process of national reconciliation, reconstruction and development, the public service was expected to play a very critical role as an executive arm of the state. The public service thus needed to transform into a coherent, representative, competent and democratic instrument in line with the Constitution to fulfil this role effectively. Human capital refers to the accumulation of competencies, knowledge and skills to perform a task. To a degree, the effectiveness of an organisation depends on the quality and effectiveness of its employees. Without a high-quality workforce, an organisation is destined for mediocre performance. The Human Resource Strategy of 2010 of the Department of Defence aims at ensuring the availability of the right number and quality of personnel in the right place and at the right time. The SA Navy as part of the department is also governed by this strategy. Since the integration of the seven armed forces in the South African National Defence Force, the SA Navy being the least service that benefited from this process, implemented an aggressive recruitment strategy to ensure representativeness of all groups in the organisation. Before the democratisation of the republic, the SA Navy consisted of predominantly white people as blacks were debarred from joining the organisation in the past. The recruitment strategy post-1994 saw the number of whites declining annually and currently, less than what is prescribed in the Defence Review of 1998 and the Navy Review of 2002. The reported intakes from 2015 to 2020 in the SA Navy also confirm the continuous decline of white youth joining the organisation. The study established possible reasons for the decline of white youth in the SA Navy. The demographic representation in the Republic contributes to the problem. Blacks, in particular Africans, increase annually and the 2007 to 2016 community survey confirms this impasse. The subsequent Mid-term community surveys of 2018 and 2020 depict the same trend. However, without an aggressive recruitment strategy to attract white youth, the declining percentages will continue to increase even outside the demographic representation of the Republic. The qualitative and quantitative approaches undertaken during the research propose an interactive intervention on the part of the SA Navy to attract and retain white youth in the organisation.
Contribution of a systematic and long-term observation method to improve the understanding of flood impacts 
Authors: Bremond Pauline , Balzergue Pierre , Grelot Frédéric , Marry Valériane , Modjeska Maxime , Nortes Martinez David
Published: September 2022

Floods are the natural hazard that generates the most damage in the world, but many aspects of how this damage occurs are still poorly understood. Indeed, the impacts of floods can concern all types of stakes (dwellings, economic or agricultural activities, public infrastructures, networks, etc.), whether they are directly impacted by the flood or indirectly by the propagation of disturbances through society, or even in a temporal delay compared to the original event. Moreover, these impacts may differ according to the nature of the flood (e.g. overflow, runoff, salt water flooding). Finally, the impacts are the result of complex biophysical processes but also of protection, repair and adaptation actions implemented by affected people.

Our objective is to highlight the diversity of flood impacts, including the issue of their persistence. To this end, we propose an original method that combines post-flood observation surveys with long-term monitoring of individuals exposed to floods. This methodology is implemented in the framework of the system of observations of the impacts of floods (so-ii, http://so-ii.org) in the Greater Montpellier area coordinated by our team. For the quantitative surveys, based on our past observation and modelling experiences, we have developed questionnaires that aim to collect the impacts of flooding, following an event, in an exhaustive and cumulative manner.
These questionnaires were applied following a flood event that occurred on September 20th 2020 in the north of Montpellier. For long-term monitoring, we set up networks of impact observers (inhabitants and farmers for the moment), with whom we agreed to work over the long term (about fifteen years).
With these groups, we have defined an observation protocol, combining individual interviews to better specify each person's situation (e.g. individual vulnerability, characteristics of buildings) with participatory workshops to discuss the results, orient future work, and pool each person's experiences. In this paper we present the intermediate results of this ongoing research. We also discuss the relevance and limitations of such an approach to improve the understanding and assessment of flood damage.
Sub-seasonal Hydrological Drought Forecast – the use of a Hybrid Forecasting System for Streamflow and Lake Level Predictions in Switzerland
Authors: Chang Annie Y.-Y. , Jola Simone , Bogner Konrad , Domeisen Daniela I.V. , Zappa Massimiliano
Published: September 2022

Switzerland and the nearby alpine countries are not commonly associated with the occurrence of droughts, but in recent years, Switzerland has experienced several unprecedented drought events. As many sectors in the European Alps depend heavily on the water resources, e.g. for hydropower production, navigation and transportation, agriculture, and tourism, it is important for decision makers to have early warnings of drought. Machine learning (ML) approaches have shown potential to compete with traditional hydro-meteorological models. By combining a traditional hydrological model and a ML model in a hybrid setup, the forecasting system is able to benefit from the statistical power of ML while maintaining the understanding of physical processes from the traditional model.

The objective of this study is to investigate the predictability of a hybrid forecasting system composed of a traditional hydrological model PREVAH and an ensemble of ML algorithms to provide sub-seasonal streamflow and lake level predictions for major rivers and lakes in Switzerland. Uncertainty of the hydro-meteorological prediction chain is accounted for by using 51 hydrological ensemble members, and the ML uncertainty is accounted for by performing different rounds of initial randomization. We also investigate different drivers of the drought predictability by considering input features such as initial conditions, European weather regime forecasts and a hydropower proxy.

We are able to demonstrate that the proposed hybrid forecasting system is able to perform runoff routing scheme and provide sub-seasonal forecasts of streamflow and lake level for Swiss basins. Informed ML models with additional input features achieve better performance than those obtained using hydrological model outputs only. In the first half of the forecast period (weeks 1 and 2), model performance is improved by the initial conditions and in the second half (weeks 3 and 4) by the hydropower proxy. Lake level prediction shows promising skill for different basin sizes, whereas the streamflow prediction skill is linked to basin size. This study shines light on the use of hybrid forecasting for sub-seasonal drought prediction to provide useful information for medium- to long-term planning from an integrated risk management perspective.
Analyzing hydrological model versatility to simulate flash floods in Mediterranean catchments 
Authors: Peredo Daniela , Ramos Maria-Helena
Published: September 2022

Extreme flood events in the Mediterranean region are known for being natural hazards with heavy consequences for the population. They are often the result of climate and topographic characteristics of the region. Therefore, the way rainfall-runoff generation processes are represented in hydrological models is a key factor to simulate and forecast floods. This work presents how an adapted hydrological model (the GRSDi model; Peredo et al., 2021) is able to better simulate flash floods occurring after long dry periods, while also simulating well other floods occurring during or after wet periods in Mediterranean catchments in France (Aude, Gardon, Ardèche). The GRSDi model is the result of the adaptation of an existing semi-distributed hydrological model (the GRSD model). The adaptation consisted in introducing a dependency on the rainfall intensity in the production rate, which is calculated before the water flows into the model’s production store. A new parameter to be calibrated is introduced (parameter i0). Differences in runoff production between the two models were quantified at each catchment over the modelling units of the semi-distributed modelling framework and along the hourly time steps of a 10-year study period (2008-2018). A visualization of model versatility is proposed to detect the time steps when the new model structure tends to behave more similarly or differently from the original model structure in terms of runoff production. The results show that the highest number of occurrences of high differences in runoff production between models is observed when modelling units have lower values of parameter i0, at time steps with high rainfall intensity and low filling rate of the production reservoir. The modification introduced in the original model structure is activated when the model needs to adapt to specific conditions, illustrating the added-value of the versatility provided by the modified model structure, despite its simplicity.

 

Peredo, D., Ramos, M-H., Andréassian, V., Oudin, L. Investigating hydrological model versatility to simulate extreme flood events. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 2021, submitted.
Variational data assimilation on a multi-dimensional hydraulic-hydrological model of hydrographic network: inference of large composite control vectors on the DassFlow paltform
Authors: Pujol Léo , Garambois Pierre-André , Monnier Jérôme , Larnier Kevin , Villenave Lilian , Mosé Robert
Published: September 2022

In a context of climate change and potential intensification of the hydrological cycle, improving representation of water fluxes within river basins is of paramount importance  for hydrological sciences and operational forecasts. To leverage multi-sourced observations (in situ, satellite, drones) of the critical zone, innovative approaches integrating hydraulic-hydrological modeling and multi-variate assimilation methods are needed. They should enable ingesting spatially distributed forcings, physiographic descriptors, hydrodynamic signatures from multi-source observables, and tackle calibration/correction problems in integrated models. Water surface observables are valuable to constrain hydraulic models of river reaches ([1] and references therein) and complex flow zones (confluences, floodplains), forced by spatially distributed inflows ([2], [3]). Since hydraulic large scale modeling can be computationally costly, a combination of effective 1D representations and 2D zooms, completed by hydrological modules, may be useful. This contribution presents the development of a complete multi-dimensional hydraulic-hydrological toolchain, based on the 2D hydraulic model and variational data assimilation platform DassFlow [4,5]. A new method for multi-dimensional hydraulic modeling, relying on a single 2D 2nd order solver applied to 1Dlike-2D meshes, is presented. Inferences of large composite control vectors, including hydrological and hydraulic controls, are carried out on academic and real cases in twin experiments. Accurate results are achieved given sufficient observability of parameters signatures, including information feedback from the river network to upstream hydrological catchments models.

[1] Larnier et al. "River discharge and bathymetry estimation from SWOT altimetry measurements", Inverse Problems in Science and Engineering 29, 6 (2021), pp. 759-789.

[2] Pujol et al. Estimation of multiple inflows and effective channel by assimilation of multi-satellite hydraulic signatures: The ungauged anabranching Negro river. Journal of Hydrology, 591:125331, 2020.

[3] Malou et al. (2021). Generation and analysis of stage-fall-discharge laws from coupled hydrological-hydraulic river network model integrating sparse multi-satellite data. Journal of Hydrology, 603, 126993.

[4] Data assimilation for free surface flows. Technical report, Mathematics Institute of Toulouse-INSA group-CS corp. CNES-CNRS, 2019.

[5] Monnier et al. Inverse algorithms for 2D shallow 893 water equations in presence of wet dry fronts. application to flood plain dynamics. Advances in Water Resources, 894 97:11–24, 2016.
The trend analysis of rain over threshold the 100 mm on the Bia basin at south east Cote d'Ivoire
Authors: Kouassi Kan Martin , Rouché Nathalie , Mledje N'diaye Hermann
Published: September 2022

 PROBLEM STATEMENT

Recent flooding in the Bia watershed has affected the Ayamé 1 and 2 hydroelectric dams functionnality and caused damage in the Aboisso area. Studies have revealed that the threshold for observing these floods is estimated at 100 mm of rainfall. It therefore appears necessary to verify the link between the 100 mm rainy days trend and the floods recurrence on the Bia basin.

 OBJECTIVE

This study aims at analyzing the trend of rain over a threshold 100 mm in the Bia watershed.

 METHODOLOGY

The frequency of rainy days over a threshold 100 mm was constituted from 1941 to 2015 from the daily rainfall available over the same period at the stations Adiaké, Bianouan, Aboisso, Ayamé and Agnibilékro. The linear regression between these rainfall frequencies and time allowed us to assess the trend of rainfall days over threshlod 100 mm at each station. The slope of the regressions allowed us to appreciate the increasing or decreasing trends while the the t-test probability p applied to the regression slope highlights the highly significant (p < 0.01), significant (0.01 ≤ p <0.05) and non-significant (p ≥ 0.05) trends.

 RESULTS

The daily rainfall over threshold the 100 mm frequency varies from 15 days in Agnibilékro to 120 days in Adiaké. The trend in these rainfall thresholds is characterized by an average decrease of 0.5% per decade. On an interannual scale, this negative trend was very significant in Adiaké and Bianouan, then significant in Aboisso and insignificant in Ayamé and Agnibilékro. An intermonthly observation, the decrease was very significant in May, June and July in Aboisso, Adiaké and Bianouan respectively.

 CONCLUSION

The flooding recurrence in the Bia basin is not related to an increase in the frequency of threshold rains (100 mm) of flooding, it could be related to the vulnerability of the basin.
Towards development of the methodology for the design hydrograph definition including stochastic simulations in Slovenia, Europe
Authors: Bezak Nejc , Mikoš Matjaž , Lebar Klaudija , Rusjan Simon , Šraj Mojca
Published: September 2022

Engineers are often required to derive design peak discharges and hydrographs that are needed for the planning, design and construction of the hydro-technical structures such as dikes, dams or preparation of the flood risk or hazard maps. There are numerous options available for the design peak discharge and hydrograph estimation ranging from simple empirical equations to complex rainfall-runoff models including stochastic rainfall simulators. Additionally, rainfall-runoff model parameters can be estimated using a variety of methods depending on the availability and quality of data. However, such methods are often too complex or time consuming to be used in practice. Therefore, the knowledge gap between theoretical hydrology and practical hydrological applications can be very large in some cases. Thus, engineers are often using very simple methods that do not account for the uncertainty in the design values estimation. Additionally, they often do not use all available data (e.g., discharge, precipitation).

Moreover, a step forward is also needed in the process of the preparation of the flood hazard and risk maps that have been prepared across Europe based on requirements of the EU Flood Directive (Directive 2007/60/60). In order to follow good practices in some other fields (e.g., earthquake engineering), where probabilistic approach is used in the design, a similar methodology would need to be developed for the preparation of flood maps taking into account stochastic nature of the hydrological processes.

Therefore, a robust methodology that takes into account the latest state-of-the-art research findings and knowledge is needed to guide engineers in the process of the design discharge and hydrograph definition. Such methodology is currently lacking in Slovenia, where complexity of hydrological estimations is often on lower level compared to the hydraulic calculations conducted. This contribution presents recent work carried out in relation to the definition of the methodology for the design peak discharge and hydrograph calculation in case of gauged and ungauged catchments in Slovenia. The methodology will also include guidelines related to the stochastic simulations and definition of multiple design hydrographs that could be used to derive probabilistic flood risk maps.

We acknowledge the financial support from the Slovenian Research Agency (grant: V2-2137).
Impacts of climate change on surface water resource availability in Alibori sub-watershed at the Yankin outlet (Northern Benin/West Africa)
Authors: Agué Ibikunlé Alain , Eténé Cyr Gervais , Pilabina Somiyabalo , Yabi Ibouraïma
Published: September 2022

Surface water resources are exposed to the effects of climate change, which poses a threat to agricultural activities in particular and socio-economic development in general. This study aims to characterize the effect of current and future climate change on surface water resource in the Alibori sub-watershed at the Yankin outlet. The historical data cover the period from 1965 to 2015 and include climate and hydrometric series respectively from the Meteo-Benin and the General Water Directorate databases. The simulation data are those of the HadGEM2-ES climate model under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for the horizons 2050 (time period 2041 - 2060) and 2070 (time period 2061 - 2080). These data were processed by descriptive statistics methods and the global conceptual hydrological model GR2M was used to evaluate the flow of the Alibori River for each climate scenario at the horizons 2050 and 2070. The results reveal two breaks in the flow series in 1970 and 1993, hence the consideration of the time periods 1965-1970, 1971-1993 and 1994-2015 for the analysis of current variations. Between the time periods 1965-1970 and 1971-1993, the rainfall decrease by 13% and the flow decrease by 55%. On the other hand, between the time periods 1971-1993 and 1994-2015, these two terms of the hydrological balance have experienced increases estimates at 7% for rainfull and 84% for flow, resulting in flooding phenomena that have become annual in recent decades in the sub-watershed. Similarly, by 2050 and 2070, and regardless of the RCP 4.5 or RCP8.5 scenario, the variations induced by climate change seriously affect the volume of runoff. There is a very significant increase in the average monthly flow, especially from July to October, while the annual hydrological pattern remains unchanged. Faced with this situation, appropriate strategies should be sought in conjunction with the local populations and authorities.

Keywords: Surface water resource, Climate change, Hydrological balance, Alibori sub-watershed at Yankin, Benin  
Evaluation and calibration of Twenty alternative methods for estimating reference evapotranspiration in main hydrosystems of Senegal: Senegal, Gambia and Casamance River Basins
Authors: Bodian Ansoumana , Ndiaye Papa Malick , Diop Serigne Bassirou , Diop Lamine , Dezetter Alain , Ogilvie Andrew , Djaman Koffi
Published: September 2022

Reference evapotranspiration (ET0) is an essential parameter for hydrological modeling, irrigation planning and for studying the impacts of climate change on water resources. The Penman-Monteith method is recommended for estimating ET0 under all climatic conditions. But its application is limited in regions where data are difficult to access. The alternative is to use methods that incorporate fewer climatic parameters. The objective of this work is to evaluate twenty alternative methods of estimating ET0 and to calibrate and validate the best ones in order to adapt them to the climatic context of the basins of Senegal, Gambia and Casamance. This tree basins are the main hydrosystems of Senegal. The KGE and the PBIAS were used to evaluate the performance of the methods. The results show that the methods of Valiantzas 1, Doorenboss & Pruitt and Penman are the most robust for the estimation of ET0 in the three basins. The calibration/validation allowed the improvement of the methods of Trabert, Valiantzas 2 and Hargreaves & Samani for the estimation of the reference evapotranspiration in the basins of Senegal, Gambia and Casamance.

Keywords: Reference evapotranspiration, Penman-Monteith, Alternative Methods, Calibration/validation, Senegal, Gambia and Casamance Basins.
Impact of weather types on rainfall, runoff and sediment yield in a Mediterranean cultivated landscape
Authors: Raclot Damien , Hamdi Radhouane , Mekki Insaf , Albergel Jean
Published: September 2022

Soil degradation by water is a serious environmental problem worldwide, with specific climatic factors being the major causes. In this study, we investigated how synoptic atmospheric patterns (i.e. weather types, Wts), and their distribution throughout the year, affect the intra-catchment rainfall variability and the temporal variability of runoff and sediment yield (SY). The analyse was based on a long-term database of rainfall, runoff and sediment yield acquired in a tunisian rural catchment (Kamech, OMERE observatory). The results first confirmed that most of runoff and SY occurred during a small number of rainfall events. They also indicated that just a few WTs accounted for large percentages of the total runoff amounts and SY, but with a large difference between the atmospheric circulation patterns relating to each of them as most of SY occurred during south (S) and south-east (SE) atmospheric circulation patterns, whereas most of runoff and rainfall occurred during the predominant north (N) and north-west (NW) atmospheric circulation patterns. Such a result suggest that synoptic WT may improve understanding of the general conditions under which runoff and SY occur. The approach used here could be useful to aid of the design of water management and soil conservation measures tailored for the local conditions of the Cap Bon region, where many reservoirs constructed for surface water mobilisation are highly affected by siltation issues. The relationships between synoptic atmospheric circulations and the runoff and erosive response can also help to anticipate adaptations measures to climate change. Future works are required to explore if the rainfall properties (e.g. raindrop size and energy) can explain the differences in the erosive response observed in the studied catchment between the S and SE flows and the N and NW flows.
Assessing robustness of large-scale hydrological and sediment modeling using nested domains under current and changing climate
Authors: Bartosova Alena , Arheimer Berit , de Lavenne Alban , Capell René , Strömqvist Johan
Published: September 2022

Continental and global dynamic hydrological models have emerged recently as tools for e.g. flood forecasting, large-scale climate impact analyses, and estimation of time-dynamic water fluxes into sea basins. One such tool is a dynamic process-based rainfall-runoff and water quality model, Hydrological Predictions for Environment (HYPE, see https://hypeweb.smhi.se/). We present and compare historical simulations of runoff, soil moisture, aridity, and sediment concentrations for three nested model domains using global (WWH), continental (Europe, E-HYPE), and national (Sweden, S-HYPE) catchment-based HYPE applications (Table 1). Future impacts on hydrological variables from changing climate were then assessed using the global and continental HYPE applications with ensembles based on three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) global climate models (GCMs). The comparison was carried out for ensemble averages as well as for individual GCMs to illustrate the variability and the need for robust assessments.

We illustrate how modeling across nested domains enables additional assessments of robustness in terms of projected impacts, modelling setups, and model performance criteria. After accounting for the spatial resolution, simulated historical runoff values were quite similar among the nested models while sediment concentrations varied considerably in spatial patterns. Regardless of the variation, the global model was able to provide information on climate change impacts comparable to those from the continental and national models for hydrological indicators.

Global hydrological models are shown to be valuable tools for e.g. first screenings of climate change effects and detection of spatial patterns and can be useful to provide information on current and future hydrological states at various domains. The challenges are (1) in deciding when we should use the large-scale models and (2) in interpreting the results, considering the uncertainty of the model results and quality of data especially at the global scale. Comparison across nested domains demonstrates the significance of scale and model performance and supports the need to use model ensembles for large-scale analyses instead of a single model.

Bartosova et al, 2021. Large-Scale Hydrological and Sediment Modeling in Nested Domains under Current and Changing Climate. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering 26, 05021009. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0002078 
Water Balance Assessment in Iran: From Unsolved Problems to Practical Solutions
Authors: Shafiei Mojtaba , Zahraie Banafsheh , Soleimaniha Saeed , Dehbandi Nematollah , Naseri Mohsen , Dehghanisanij Hossein , Noury Mojtaba , Golkar Elham , Ghasemzadeh Firuz
Published: September 2022

The development of water quantity assessment focusing on water balances have been identified as a main tool for guiding water policy and management at different decision-making levels. Water Balance Assessment (WBA) accounts for all water fluxes in a watershed by balancing the difference between water inputs and outputs, as well as changes in the watershed water storage. The natural hydrological cycle has been considerably changed due to the substantial anthropogenic activities, which lead to more complexity and therefore uncertainty in estimation and implementation of WBA results. In Iran, the WBA is being conducted every five-year for 609 watersheds, covering the whole country. Although the water authorities are provided with different guidelines and frameworks to improve the WBA, yet there are many multifaceted obstacles in carrying out proper WBA and implementing its results in water management. A preliminary survey showed that most of the barriers are related to the complexity of the human-hydrological watershed systems and the associated uncertainty to the water balance components especially at semi-arid watersheds. Additionally, the complexities associated with institutional arrangements including: access to data, centralized process of conducting WBA, workflow of the WBA projects, diverse stakeholders and their disagreement with WBA final results are among the barriers against smooth WBA in Iran.

In order to understand, identify and provide practical solutions for WBA problems, a national initiative is established with engaging government organizations, universities, NGOs, and research institutes. Therefore, we introduced a collaborative framework entitled “Unsolved Problems in Water Balance (UPWB)” to understand the problems together, co-create capacities and synergize among all stakeholders to solve the WBA problems in Iran. UPWB also covers 11 out of 23 of the IAHS Unsolved Problems in Hydrology (UPH). The UPWB considers three main themes for prioritizing the UPWB in Iran: 1) Technical and computational 2) Institutional and 3) data and information. So far, 10 online webinars by involvement of 400 experts are organized and 46 filled questioners also collected through the Web platform (upwb.ir). Preliminary results confirmed that WBA is the core element of sustainable water management especially in semi-arid regions with various technical, social and institutional aspects.
Modelling of meteorological drought using the SPI and SPEI indices in the Volta watershed in Togo
Authors: Somiyabalo Pilabina , Ibouraïma Yabi , Ernest Amoussou
Published: September 2022

Drought is an insidious scourge that results from a decline in precipitation from levels considered normal. The data used cover a period of 118 years (1901-2019) which ensures a good coverage of the studied region. Two approaches (SPI and SPEI) were applied to assess drought in the Volta bassin in Togo. The results show that there has been a decrease in rainfall in the Volta bassin in Togo in recent years. In terms of SPI, 36 years have indices lower than -0.5 and 4 years lower than -1 in the Dapaong station. The longest periods of drought are observed between 1958-1990 or 33 years and 2010-2019 or 10 years. The SPEI show 9 years with an index lower than -0.5 and only one year (2001) with an index lower than -1. The longest droughts occurred during the period 2009-2019, or 10 years, as for the IPS. This shows a trend of aridification of the climate in this area.
Suspended particulate matter and water fecal pollution in the Niger River at Niamey
Authors: Boubacar Moussa Moussa , Abdourhamane Touré Amadou , Lartiges Bruno , Rochelle Newall Emma , Kergoat Laurent , Robert Elodie , Gosset Marielle , Alkali Tanimoun Bachir , Grippa Manuela
Published: September 2022

130 million residents use the Niger River water for agriculture, fishing, transport and domestic activities. Suspended particulate matter (SPM) and other waste, washed into the river during rainy events,  constitute a favorable environment for bacteria proliferation since it provides protection from ultraviolet radiation, offers nutrients and ideal living environment. The objectives of this work are to: characterize the concentration and nature of SPM in the middle Niger River and analyze their spatio-temporal variability; study the link between SPM and indicator of fecal bacteria contamination (E. coli); quantify the part of fecal pollution that the Niamey city brings into the Niger River.

Two regular monitoring sites were set up on the Niger River and two periurban lakes east of Niamey. Measurements of SPM were made by filtering water samples acquired during two full years. Water color was monitored by above-surface radiometer operating in red and infrared bands and Sentinel-2 satellite. E. coli content and physico-chemical water parameters were also monitored and SPM were analyzed using electronic microscopy and laser granulometry.

The analysis of SPM revealed extremely fine (0.2 µm) particles of mineral origin (kaolinite) with some iron oxide/hydroxide during the red flood. Radiometric measurements by both the in-situ radiometer and Sentinel-2 were found to be well suited to monitor SPM dynamics in this area. SPM and discharge showed a complex relationship : SPM increases before the discharge increase at the beginning of the red flood but they are at their lowest during the black flood. SPM concentration and E. coli somewhat co-vary at the beginning of the rainy season but E. coli values remain relatively high during the black flood, despite low SPM at that time. E. coli concentration at the downstream station reveals an important fecal pollution from the Niamey city with E. coli values on average 10 times higher than the upstream station. Maintaining and developing monitoring tools in this area is particularly important in the context of  global environmental changes, as for example the increase in the red flood discharge observed  in Niamey since the 90’s, that may deeply modify the transfer of contaminants in surface waters.
Advantages and opportunities in using multisensor remote sensing data for evapotranspiration retrieval as well as better partitioning between evaporation and transpiration
Authors: Boulet Gilles , Mwangi Samuel , Olioso Albert , Le Dantec Valérie , Merlin Olivier , Demarty Jerôme , Malick Kanishka , Rajasekaran Eswar , Karal Valiyaparambath Athira , Rafi Zouhair , Er-raki Salah
Published: September 2022

Quantification of evapotranspiration is crucial for a sustainable management of scarce water resources. Surface energy balance models driven by remotely sensed surface temperatures observations enable to estimate total evapotranspiration and average (surface) water stress conditions. For improved agricultural water management as well as ecosystem health monitoring, it is also important to provide an estimate of evapotranspiration components, i.e. transpiration and soil evaporation, and target the water status of the plant. This is possible through the use of dual-source energy balance models because they solve separate energy budgets for the soil and vegetation. However, the dual-source models rely on specific assumptions on plant water stress to get both components out of the sole surface temperature information. Additional information are thus required, either specifically related to evaporation (such as surface water content, as it can be derived from active microwave information) or transpiration (such as physiological indices derived from specific optical bands). Present work evaluates the ability of the SPARSE dual-source energy balance model to compute not only total evapotranspiration, but also water stress and transpiration/evaporation components, exploiting the complementarities of multiple data sources, including those acquired at lower spatial resolution or from a different view angle. Flux datasets including available sapflow and lysimeter measurements acquired over rainfed and irrigated crops in temperate, Mediterranean and semi-arid regions are used to evaluate the retrieval performances of the evaporation and transpiration components. More than a systematic increase of retrieval performance, the main positive outcome of combining those different sources of data, as well as rightfully accounting for their specific signature (direction, resolution...), seems to be an increased robustness and a better realism of the subcomponents that are retrieved.
Balancing Policy Coherence in Socio-hydrology
Authors: Vail Castro Cyndi
Published: September 2022

Renewed global mandates have encouraged widespread use of nature-based solutions (NBSs) for addressing overlapping benefits of hydro-environmental impact, social conditions (mental and physical health, sense of well-being, food security), biodiversity, and ecosystem restoration. However, the decision to implement nature-based solutions is posed with challenges regarding policy effectiveness and stakeholder buy-in. Such complexities may be assessed through the lens of socio-hydrology with enhanced approaches for incorporating human behavior into the modeling paradigm. Here, a novel framework is presented and demonstrated that applies stakeholder cognitive mapping and feedback loop analysis through a series of soft-systems approaches to elicit an understanding of the complex interactions between the physical processes served by NBSs and their human-directed management opportunities. The community-led application reveals a means for balancing complex governmental structures across multiple agencies toward policy coherence, where we identify synergies and conflicts between disparate management strategies regarding optimal allocation of NBS socio-hydrological benefits. A demonstrated case study in Houston, Texas reveals unexpected feedbacks resulting from interacting causal influences across the social and hydrological domains according to the norms in a given locale, such as the influence of climate, flood memory, advocacy, and benefit visualization. The flows of information throughout the cycle are transformed by belief systems embedded within the stakeholder cognition, which may be used to perform a semi-quantitative scenario-based assessment for identifying and better-understanding policy coherence amongst a plethora of NBS decision-making options. Typically, sole reliance upon scenario-based modeling obscures the feedback loop logic embedded within the system. Conversely, causal loop diagrams alone may quickly become convoluted, which are difficult to decipher from human visualization, particularly as we encounter double and triple loop influences. By combining both loop analysis with scenario-based modeling within one framework, we are better able to identify areas of policy coherence while also explaining the emergence of synergies and trade-offs according to causal loop logic. Such a framework is applicable to a variety of complex systems with overlapping socio-hydro-environmental processes that are influenced by political decision-making across institutional scales.