bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Immigration, langues et performance économique : le Québec et l’Ontario entre 1970 et 1995
Authors: Grenier Gilles
Published: July 2012

Cette étude contribue à deux courants de littérature relativement distincts : l’intégration économique des immigrants et les liens entre les attributs linguistiques et les revenus au Canada. L’analyse porte sur deux provinces canadiennes, le Québec et l’Ontario, et utilise les microdonnées des cinq recensements canadiens de 1971, 1981, 1986, 1991 et 1996. L’échantillon est divisé entre les non-immigrants et les immigrants (et parmi ces derniers entre ceux originaires de l’Europe et des États-Unis et ceux originaires du reste du monde) et entre les personnes parlant le français, l’anglais ou une autre langue à la maison. Dans un premier temps, on fait des comparaisons de traitements et salaires moyens en fonction des attributs de langue et d’immigration. On constate que les revenus relatifs des immigrants ont diminué dans le temps. Par ailleurs, les francophones ont amélioré leur situation économique, à la fois chez les immigrants et les non-immigrants, mais sans rattraper totalement les anglophones. Les personnes parlant des langues autres que l’anglais ou le français ont en général des revenus assez faibles. Dans un deuxième temps, on estime des régressions de gains pour voir les effets nets des attributs d’immigration et de langue. Les écarts entre francophones et anglophones sont plus faibles quand on ne considère que les effets nets, et en Ontario, ils sont même nuls ou en faveur des francophones. Une question intéressante concerne la performance économique des immigrants au Québec en fonction de leurs choix linguistiques. Les résultats montrent que les immigrants qui parlent français s’intègrent aussi bien que ceux qui parlent anglais. Malgré cela, il n’y a pas suffisamment d’immigrants qui s’intègrent à la communauté francophone pour assurer le maintien du poids démographique du français. L’auteur suggère que la politique canadienne d’immigration tienne compte de l’équilibre linguistique entre le français et l’anglais.
Équilibres et stabilité de la corruption dans un modèle de croissance : l’effet de la rémunération des politiciens
Authors: Ventelou Bruno
Published: July 2012

L’article part du principe suivant : la corruption « politique » renvoie à un problème de contrôle du contrôleur (il n’y a pas d’institutions hiérarchiques supérieures au sommet de l’État), ce qui crée un risque d’équilibres multiples : soit la corruption reste limitée, le cadre institutionnel relativement stable, et le contrôle possible, soit, au-delà d’un seuil, l’ensemble s’écroule, pour créer une « trappe de corruption » où les difficultés s’accumulent. Le modèle proposé s’inspire de cette réflexion, en empruntant une méthodologie propre à l’analyse économique des conflits sociaux. Sur la base d’une endogénéisation politico-économique de la survie électorale des gouvernements, il retrouve bien, dans une première étape, un résultat d’équilibres multiples concernant la corruption, l’instabilité politique et la croissance (avec la possibilité d’une « trappe de corruption » comme équilibre bas). La seconde étape exploite le cadre préalablement construit : il permet de tester une intuition, selon laquelle de — bonnes — stratégies de rémunération des politiciens permettent de limiter la corruption.
Imperfection du marché du capital et investissement des exploitations agricoles
Authors: Benjamin Catherine , Phimister Euan
Published: July 2012

Le but de notre article est de rechercher les déterminants des décisions d’investissement des exploitants agricoles français en présence d’imperfections du marché du capital. Les contraintes d’accès au marché du crédit qui semblent jouer un rôle croissant en France sont prises en compte en intégrant des coûts de transaction associés aux emprunts et en définissant un plafond d’endettement. L’introduction de ces imperfections conduit à la simultanéité entre les décisions financières et les décisions d’investissement de l’exploitation. Un des résultats du modèle est de montrer que, pour comprendre les variations du taux d’investissement, il est nécessaire de différencier les exploitations ayant contracté des emprunts sur deux années successives. Le modèle est estimé sur données de panel en utilisant la méthode des moments généralisés. Le modèle n’est pas rejeté par les données pour le sous-échantillon des exploitations où le chef d’exploitation a une formation générale, le sous-échantillon des grandes exploitations.
Électricité en Afrique et performance productive
Authors: Hofman Lucile , Plane Patrick
Published: July 2012

Au milieu des années quatre-vingt, les sociétés africaines d’électricité se sont engagées dans des programmes de réforme ayant pour objet d’améliorer leur efficience productive. Douze de ces réseaux sont étudiés dans cet article. Des frontières de production paramétriques sont d’abord estimées sur données de panel. La société ivoirienne, dont la privatisation a été effectuée en 1990, révèle que cette réforme institutionnelle a aidé à accroître la performance productive tandis que le même résultat a été difficile à obtenir lorsque l’opérateur est resté totalement public.

Une analyse plus détaillée du cas ivoirien est ensuite réalisée en considérant des frontières de type DEA. Des indices de Malmquist non paramétriques sont calculés. Ils prennent en compte les dimensions économiques et sociales de l’activité du service public. L’output multiple est notamment mesuré par l’électricité produite (kWh) et le nombre de consommateurs. Une diminution de la productivité totale des facteurs (PTF) est mise en évidence, dont l’effet est principalement imputé au mouvement de l’efficience technique. On conclut sur le rôle potentiel de la régulation publique pour faciliter la compatibilité entre l’accès au service universel et l’objectif de profit.
Évaluation de l’efficience budgétaire des CLSC au Québec à partir de la méthode DEA
Authors: Crémieux Pierre-Yves , Gadbois Denis , Jaumard Brigitte , Ouellette Pierre , Vovor Tsévi
Published: July 2012

Dans cet article, nous présentons les résultats d’une analyse de l’efficience des CLSC à l’aide de la méthode DEA. Ces résultats confirment ceux obtenus avec l’approche économétrique publiés dans un précédent article : (1) les CLSC jouissent de forts rendements d’échelle et des économies de diversification pourraient être réalisées en augmentant la taille et l’éventail des services offerts; (2) les CLSC sont surcapitalisés en bâtiments, en équipement et en médecins; et (3) des économies substantielles de l’ordre de 36 millions de dollars auraient pu être réalisées en modifiant la gestion des 39 CLSC étudiés sans réduire le niveau de soins à la population.
Analyse comparative de la visibilité des articles en économie industrielle : 1991-1998
Authors: Mirucki Jean
Published: July 2012

Cette étude empirique évalue l’importance relative des articles en économie industrielle publiés dans les principales revues scientifiques généralistes ou spécialisées, autant anglophones que francophones, en utilisant le nouveau système de classification du J.E.L. de 1991. Les contributions sont examinées à l’intérieur de deux périodes récentes, 1991-1994 et 1995-1998, et regroupées suivant le type d’article : analyse théorique (L100- L390); politique industrielle (L400-L590); études sectorielles (L600-L990). Un indice de progression vers la spécialisation (IPS) permettrait d’observer l’évolution de la politique éditoriale en rapport avec le thème traité, alors qu’un taux de référence multiple (TRM) révèle les caractéristiques spécifiques aux revues en fonction du type d’article publié.
La finance islamique : fondements, théorie et réalité
Authors: Martens André
Published: July 2012

L’Islam interdit leribā**, mot arabe signifiant à la fois usure et intérêt. L’interdiction duribāfigure dans la loi islamique, née dans l’Arabie du Moyen Âge. Elle est à la base de la finance islamique qui connut une expansion remarquable durant la deuxième moitié du XXesiècle. Nous nous interrogeons sur les origines de cette interdiction, sur les problèmes que connaît actuellement la finance islamique et sur ses perspectives d’avenir.

**Les mots arabes écrits en italiques dans le texte respectent le système de translittération de l’arabe au français adopté par l’Encyclopédie de l’Islam(Editions G.-P. Maisonneuve et Larose, Paris, 1994).
Règle monétaire et cible de prévisions d’inflation
Authors: Lecarpentier-Moyal Sylvie , Payelle Nathalie
Published: July 2012

Par rapport aux autres dispositifs de politique monétaire, la mise en place d’une règle de cible directe d’inflation présente en théorie de nombreux avantages, essentiellement en termes de crédibilité. Mais les multiples problèmes opérationnels soulevés conduisent à s’interroger en particulier sur le choix des prévisions d’inflation. Une étude empirique menée sur données françaises, et sur la période 1978-1997 est réalisée à partir de simulations historiques et stochastiques. Elle milite en faveur d’une telle règle avec des coefficients de réaction modérés (compatibles avec une politique monétaire efficace). Elle permet également de montrer le degré de sensibilité de la performance de cette règle au choix du mode d’élaboration des prévisions d’inflation.
Fiscalité superposée et externalités fiscales verticales : faut-il reconsidérer le débat entre concurrence et coopération fiscales?
Authors: Madiès Thierry
Published: July 2012

L’objet de cet article est de faire le point sur une question longtemps négligée par les économistes, même si elle est au centre du débat politique chaque fois qu’il s’agit de réformer la fiscalité territoriale : c'est la question de l’empilement des taux de prélèvement quand plusieurs échelons de collectivités publiques taxent une même base imposable. En effet, le comportement non coopératif de gouvernements appartenant à un niveau administratif différent et qui partagent une même matière imposable est à l’origine d’externalités fiscales verticales négatives de recettes fiscales. Celles-ci sont responsables, pour certains, de la dérive à la hausse des taux de prélèvement. Dans ces conditions, les externalités entre collectivités publiques sont non seulement horizontales, comme l’a montré l’importante littérature sur la concurrence fiscale entre collectivités locales, mais aussi verticales quand il y a partage d’une même matière imposable par des collectivités publiques appartenant à un échelon de gouvernement différent. La prise en compte de ces deux types d’externalités permet alors de reconsidérer le débat portant sur les vertus respectives de la concurrence et de la consolidation (coopération) fiscale et sur le niveau optimal auquel doivent être entreprises les politiques de redistribution dans une économie fédérale.
La méthodologie des modèles intersectoriels rectangulaires à coefficients modifiables : rétrospective et perspective
Authors: Matuszewski T.
Published: July 2012

The best known and probably the most frequently used of the models of this class is undoubtedly the Input-Output model of the Québec economy built, continuously updated and operated by the Bureau de la Statistique du Québec. However, the methodology, adapted and sometimes extended has found a number of other, in particular micro-economic applications.

Evidently, the basic inspiration of the methodology in question is to be found in the ideas put forward by Professor Leontief. Certain researches done in France, especially in the late 1950's, but also since then, have exerted considerable influence.

Although these models trace their origins to activity analysis in the sense that they start from the principle that to understand a complex system it is preferable to study in detail its inner structures and workings rather than the evolution over time of the great aggregates characterising the overall behaviour.

By abandoning the postulates of proportionality and of one-to-one correspondence between "products" and "industries", the models discussed here openly give up any pretence to mathematical elegance including the existence of "general solutions" of the kind of those associated with the Leontief inverses. They just become in effect simulation models and at the same time much more convenient and flexible frameworks for the collection, organization and the handling of data, data which are much closer to basic data than the highly processed data incorporated in the traditional Input-Output models. They are also much more easier to update and to incorporate "non-statistical" data.

Although more powerful, in many respects, than the traditional models, they share with them at least two basic weaknesses which, significantly, are not unrelated to each other. They are incapable of handling in a really comprehensive and systematic manner the confrontation of supply and of demand influences and they give no more than a most cursory treatment to the whole range of financial phenomena and a fortiori to the influence of these phenomena on the "real" ones. It is clear that the future work on this class of models will have to put heavy emphasis on trying to reduce these two weaknesses.
L’emploi de modèles intersectoriels rectangulaires à coefficients modifiables pour simuler la propagation de la demande pour les fins de la planification du développement industriel
Authors: Bergeron I. , Matuszewski T.
Published: July 2012

This article presents a methodology which draws heavily on the philosophy of the Input-Output models and having been made completely operational has already been used on three occasions in two countries for the purposes of regional development of construction materials industries.

This methodology, or more precisely the strictly formalized part of it is an extension of that of rectangular Input-Output models with modifiable coefficients. Thus, not surprisingly, it resembles fairly closely the approach by simulation, although the proposed model contains some simple optimizing sub-models. While obviously normative, these sub-models play a descriptive rôle in the model as a whole.

It is to be noted that the approach presented here can be applied to only one sector of the economy at a time. What is more, although capable of various extensions it will never be more than an auxiliary instrument destined to be used jointly with other analysis and planning instruments.

It is vital for any valid regional analysis not to restrict its investigations exclusively to what goes on in the region directly concerned. Even if the objective of the analysis is limited to a single region, one must take into account the interrelations between regions within the national economy and with foreign economies: important feedbacks affecting the region concerned may on occasion travel far beyond its limits before returning. The type of a model presented here, thanks to a great number of interrelations of which it can systematically keep track may turn out to be particularly useful here.
Les résultats du modèle intersectoriel du Québec — les postes traditionnels de la comptabilité nationale et les multiplicateurs de revenus
Authors: Truchon Michel
Published: July 2012

The author shows how, under certain conditions, results from the Quebec Input-Output model can be aggregated to obtain familiar components of the National Accounts and to derive income multipliers. These multipliers are also discussed and compared to other types of multipliers.
Analyse des effets économiques de la semaine comprimée et des horaires flexibles sur l’entreprise
Authors: Proulx Pierre-Paul , Lagana Antonio
Published: July 2012

This theoretical article examines the economic effects of compressed and variable work week upon industry. After a definition of the terms of a review of relevant literature, it presents a model which provides some insight into the reasons why management has often taken the initiative in proposing such changes in working hours. It then develops a testable theoretical and empirical model concerning the effects of changes in the work week upon productivity costs and profits in industry.
Conjuguer l’histoire
Authors: Morel Bernard
Published: July 2012

Futurology often looks like a new undertaking, the object of which would be to give people "the fantastic and marvellous" that every one needs: make one dream of tomorrow. But if the future is an alibi, it must also be a tool for mobilization. Prospective gives then to itself a less emphatic purpose: it is a new way of reading past and present (that is to say to understand history) as to define the prospects which make the future. The future is not determined in a mecanic way. It is the resultant and the expression of different projects (projects of economical groups and classes), which meet, clash inside a complex economic and social formation.

In another way, to read history goes with the idea the future is to be made, which only results of classes, struggle, social and international power-relations.

The method must unite on one side a way of production trends analysis (abstract time), and a social formation evolution (concrete time). It is a way of thinking which obviously can use traditional technics.
Modèles de simulation et de prévision sur une grande échelle
Authors: Cole Sam
Published: July 2012

Since the publication three years ago of the 'global' models of World Dynamics and The Limits of Growth, there has been revived interest in the possibilities of using large scale computer models for the forecasting of long term futures. Although these particular models received considerable criticism, on technical and ideological grounds, the idea that such models may ultimately be useful for seeking out desirable futures and anticipating the dangers in achieving them remains attractive and a number of new global modelling projects are now underway at various institutions around the world.

In general these large models have met with mixed success and, at a time when the use of computer models seems likely to become a more widespread feature of our society, it is instructive to examine the reasons why. In particular, it is important to examine the limitations of models proposed for use in the public policy domain.
La méthode des scénarios en prospective
Authors: Julien Pierre-André , Lamonde Pierre , Latouche Daniel
Published: July 2012

Increasingly scenarios are used as an important component of long-term planning. But not all scenarios are equally valid and equally useful for the decision-maker. Defining a scenario as a "synthetic process which stimulates step by step and in a plausible fashion a series of events which eventually lead a system to a new state", this study examines two kinds of scenarios: exploratory, where the inquiry proceeds from the present situation to a future one, and normative, where the search proceeds from a desirable future to the present. For each type of scenarios three sets of theoretical problems are examined: 1) the role of values, which must be explicitely recognized and used as such; 2) the concept of causality, which in a scenario has to be dealt with differently than in an "ordinary" scientific research, 3) the problem of time and the need to break the linear conception of the link existing between events. Finally, the study examines a number of practical tools and criterias (coherence, interaction, …) with which to build and to judge scenarios.
Le Plan français et les études prospectives
Authors: Cazes Bernard
Published: July 2012

For the last fifteen years, in France, one has seen a clear tendancy toward prospective studies that are meant for planners. Those studies may be classified into three categories: sectorial, "transversal" and general. Because of the fact that these types of works are of different nature it seems interesting to consider them separately for discussion purpose.
Perspective sur la prospective
Authors: Migué Jean-Luc
Published: July 2012

Long term forecasting, as popularized by some recent models of the world, appears to be a-scientific from the standpoint of the social scientists. The basis for this radical judgment is threefold: First, structural relations incorporated into these models of the world seldom go further than stating rigid relations between some physical variables and world output. Second, the factual basis on which these relations are built is often not validated by past trends. Finally, the framework within which these models are cast rules out all possibly for the social sciences to contribute to our understanding of the future. Political and economic adaptation mechanisms are excluded. Futurology as developed by some models is based on poor measurement and poor theory.
L’efficacité économique du mode d’allocation des ressources naturelles
Authors: Hung Nguyen Manh
Published: July 2012

In this paper, the decentralized economic allocation of a common property resource is fully characterized in a dynamic framework. Because of the externalities involved, this mode of allocation is shown to be inefficient. The extent and the causes of this inefficiency are discussed, with special emphasis on a kind of externality herein called the "appropriability". Finally, economic policies involving taxation, subsidy and user charge which purpose to bring about the social optimum are pointed out.
Note historique sur les effets externes
Authors: Laffont Jean-Jacques
Published: July 2012

This historical note describes from Sidgwick on the evolution of the concepts related to the interdependencies of economic agents outside markets. In a first section, we show how the concept of externality introduced by some precursors had later to reemerge from the confuse discussion of "empty boxes". The second sector clarifies the distinction between two avenues of research, the first one associated with pecuniary externalities, the other one associated with technological externalities. Coase's criticisms of Pigouvian policy are developed in section 3. In a last section we gather the main results obtained recently by economic theory in this field. In particular we discuss the difficulties of the creation of artificial markets, the second best approaches often needed in a Pigouvian policy, results of game theory in models with externalities, planning with externalities.
Un modèle de prix de type intersectoriel pour le Québec
Authors: Truchon Michel
Published: July 2012

This paper presents a price model of the Input-Output variety. This model computes the changes in the production costs and the prices of goods resulting from changes in the prices of primary factors and imports and changes in indirect taxes. It assumes that all such changes are transmitted in whole and without delay to the users of goods. It is very close in spirit to the price model developed by Statistics Canada but it offers more general possibilities than the latter.
Le Conseil économique du Canada et le modèle CANDIDE
Authors: Dawson J. A. , Wale N. E.
Published: July 2012

The CANDIDE model has been used by the Economic Council to examine Canada's economic potential, to analyze the effects of economic forces, and to consider the appropriateness of alternative policies in reaching economic objectives. For its Annual Reviews, the model provides an analytical basis for taking into account the interdependence of a number of phenomena, including those related to demographic trends, external economic conditions and domestic policies influencing supply and demand, and thus facilitates estimation of the potential development of the economy over the longer term. Within this context, a realizable set of medium-term objectives can then be established. These have been presented by the Council as performance indicators for the three years immediately ahead and they are subsequently used to monitor and assess economic developments. The model also is used by the Council to examine how various economic influences work their way through the Canadian economy. In its Annual Reviews, for example, the effects of alternative scenarios for energy investment and prices have been considered. In a special study of the construction industry, the model was used to trace the causes and effects of instability in this sector. Some illustrative results from each of these impact studies are provided. The model has also been employed to explore the implications of certain past and future changes in commercial policy, including separating out the impact of the Canada-United States Automobile Agreement, and in examining changes that have been taking place in labour markets. Each of these areas have been the subject of special studies carried out by the Council.
L’inflation canadienne de la dernière décennie vue à travers CANDIDE
Authors: Bodkin Ronald G. , Sheikh Munir A. , Chabot-Plante Francine
Published: July 2012

In this paper, a large scale econometric model of the Canadian economy (CANDIDE) is employed to study questions concerning the evolution of Canadian prices over the period 1960-1974. After a brief description of the wage-price sectors of the model, "trade-off" or Phillips curves are derived on the basis of simulations of the entire model, for the periods 1960-1965 and 1965-1970 separately. On the basis of these simulations, it is found that the trade-off curve does not appear to be very sensitive to the choice of the instrument utilized to move the Canadian economy from positions of lower to fuller utilization of its labour resources. The position of the curve is, however, quite sensitive to the rate of increase of U.S. prices; also, the full curve appears to have shifted upward considerably from the first to the second subperiod. The analysis of the period 1970-1974 suggests, among other conclusions, the possibility that an even rate of U.S. inflation over this period of rather violent fluctuations in U.S. prices could have had in itself favourable repercussions on the Canadian trade-off curve. The concluding section presents another summary of the major findings, as well as some important caveats and qualifications.
Sur l’estimation des équations de CANDIDE-R
Authors: D’Amours Alban
Published: July 2012

CANDIDE-R is a huge simultaneous macro-economic model which raises estimations difficulties. We avoid the problem of identification assuming that the great number of variables in our model makes it impossible that the necessary condition be not satisfied. We assume that our system converges to a solution solving this way the problem of identification. The core of the paper gives justifications of the procedure we adopted to estimate CANDIDE-R. Because of the presence of regional equations and the limited amount of regional data, we are bound to pool cross sections and time series data. We then justified the use of Zellner's approach instead of the error components models within the class of regional models built on national premises.
Une appréciation critique du traitement des dépenses de consommation dans le modèle CANDIDE 1.1
Authors: Carré Ronald
Published: July 2012

This paper begins by discussing what ought to be the approach to the problem of forecasting in the medium term. The author emphasizes the advantages of a very detailed breakdown of sectors. He then considers certain econometric problems which arise when forecasting consumption in the medium term. He contrasts the formulation of the consumer sector in CANDIDE with that of two other types of model and compares the results of each.

The author proposes an alternative way of treating consumption in CANDIDE which would take into account different categories of households. Finally, he discusses how to resolve problems of organization of the data, of modelling, and of estimation which may arise when using such an approach.
Le secteur résidentiel (bloc 3) de CANDIDE
Authors: Achour Dominique
Published: July 2012

In the first part, a synoptic review of the residential sectors in the balkanizing field of macro-econometric models is made à la M. Nerlove. The structural characteristics of most canadian and some american models are compared.

Then, a detailed description of two versions (1.0 and 1.1) of the residential sector of CANDIDE is given and a non parametric evaluation presented. Some comparative parametric discussions are also introduced.

The main weakness are stressed and some improvements are suggested.

The residential sector of CANDIDE is generally adequately specified generating appropriate parameters and is relatively accurate in its medium term projections. Nevertheless, the model can be of little value as a policy instrument since it is not regionalized (provincialized) and does not include policy variables in a sufficiently explicit manner.
À propos des investissements fixes des entreprises du modèle CANDIDE
Authors: Gaudet Gérard , Rouzier Philippe
Published: July 2012

The purpose of this paper is to comment on the investment equations of the CANDIDE model. The formulation of these equations is based on Jorgenson's theory of investment which is frequently used as a basis for investment expenditures analysis.

In the first two sections the authors endeavour to situate Jorgenson's model with respect to other approaches to investment theory. The last two sections contain, first, an evaluation of the way the Jorgenson's model has been adapted and, secondly, an evaluation of the problem of estimation and stability of the investment model.
Quelques commentaires sur le secteur extérieur de CANDIDE (version 1.1)
Authors: Van Peeterssen Alain
Published: July 2012

The following ill-tempered article provides a review of the foreign sector of CANDIDE; after briefly commenting the disagregation by products and services, the author examines the geographical disagregation of imports and exports into and from Canada between the U.S. and the Rest-of-the-World. He found that the proposed CANDIDE procedure is not after all that much meaningful and does not bring any additional information, while being dangerous as far as the forecasters using this model hope to get good results for imports from and exports to the Rest-of-the-World. Finally, the author gives some hints about what could have been alternatively done about this problem of geographical disagregation.
CANDIDE et la monnaie
Authors: Aubry Jean-Pierre , Duguay Pierre
Published: July 2012

In this paper we deal with the financial sector of CANDIDE 1.1. We are concerned with the determination of the short-term interest rate, the term structure equations, and the channels through which monetary policy influences the real sector.

The short-term rate is determined by a straightforward application of Keynesian liquidity preference theory. A serious problem arises from the directly estimated reduced form equation, which implies that the demand for high powered money, but not the demand for actual deposits, is a stable function of income and interest rates. The structural equations imply the opposite.

In the term structure equations, allowance is made for the smaller variance of the long-term rates, but insufficient explanation is given for their sharper upward trend. This leads to an overstatement of the significance of the U.S. long-term rate that must perform the explanatory role. Moreover a strong structural hierarchy, by which the long Canada rate wags the industrial rate, is imposed without prior testing.

In CANDIDE two channels of monetary influence are recognized: the costs of capital and the availability of credit. They affect the business fixed investment and housing sectors. The potential of the personal consumption sector is not recognized, the wealth and real balance effects are bypassed, the credit availability proxy is incorrect, the interest rate used in the real sector is nominal rather than real, and the specification of the housing sector is dubious.
L’offre de travail dans le modèle CANDIDE : un commentaire
Authors: Fortin Bernard , Gautrin Jean-François
Published: July 2012

The paper is a brief critical evaluation of the treatment of the "supply of labour" in the CANDIDE model. The authors note that the "supply of labour block" does not occur to have retained much of the effort of the CANDIDE developing team. With regards to the specification of the equation of supply of labour, no attempts have been made to integrate new developments in labour economics (a better treatment of the secondary workers supply of labour, a Fisherian utility maximising approach). We note certain econometric difficulties which have not been overcome: The limited dependant variable problem, the lag structure problem…

Finally, though it is encouraging to see attempts in macro-economic models to integrate explicitly a labour demand and supply block with a certain disagregation, important economic problems in the labour market can be dealt only with much more flexible and disagregated models than CANDIDE.
La prévision de l’emploi dans le modèle de l’IRIC
Authors: Rabeau Yves
Published: July 2012

Final demand determines output in commercial non agricultural industries (Q). Employment is linked to Q by a distributed lag mechanism. In turn employment has an impact on other parts of model. In particular employment appears as a determinant of the labour supply and of the distribution of income. The latter is closely related to the structure of final demand. Hence, employment is a key-variable when one uses the model to make a forecasting exercise.

Some of the principles behind the specification and estimation of the model are discussed. For example, for forecasting purposes one must limit the size of the model. Although the specification of each equation is derived from the body of accepted macro-economic theory, the limited size of the model and the necessity to obtain data at the time a forecast is made impose some constraint on the specification of the equations.

In the short run, actual employment is not immediately adjusted to the level of desired employment, i.e., employment level that could minimize production costs. The quarterly changes in employment are then made proportional to the gap between desired and actual employment. Desired employment is obtained by using an inverse production function. However, the adjustment mechanism is not stable over the cycle. Various proxy variables could be used to unbody that phenomenon into the equation. The ratio of actual to potential output and the relative change in the gap between actual and potential output are combined to make an indicator of the degree of slackness or tension in the economy over the cycle. This indicator is introduced into the final specification of the equation. The equation estimated is consistent with economic theory and gives excellent forecasting results.

However the severe recession of 1974 was accompanied by an exceptional drop in productivity that could be entirely captured by the equation and some adjustments were needed to forecast employment for that particular period.
Un modèle mensuel du secteur financier au Canada
Authors: Masson Paul , Clinton Kevin
Published: July 2012

In this article we describe preliminary estimates of a model of the Canadian financial system. At the present time, the model explains the behaviour of the authorities, the chartered banks, the public, and the trust and mortgage loan companies. The variables explained include monetary aggregates, several interest rates, and the major assets of the chartered banks and of the trust and mortgage loan companies.

The model differs from existing Canadian models in that we use monthly data rather than quarterly or annual data. We think the shorter observation period permits the econometric estimates to capture the dynamic adjustment processes more accurately. In particular, the mean lags implied by our equations tend to be considerably shorter than those in existing models. Another difference with conventional models is the larger influence given to asset and liability management of the chartered banks in the determination of short-term interest rates.

The model is intended primarily for forecasting, and results are presented which indicate its usefulness in that regard.
Sélection des méthodes de cueillette de l’information dans la recherche d’emploi : une analyse empirique
Authors: Rondeau Claude , Guérin Gilles
Published: July 2012

Assuming that differences in the cost of using various job search methods are negligible, the authors suggest that the job searcher makes use of specific combinations of complementary methods, and that the composition of these combinations reflects relevant personal characteristics of the job searcher (the structure of labour supply) and the searcher's perception of the characteristics of vacancies (the structure of labor demand). This hypothesis is analysed with the help of data collected by a questionnaire mailed to 1100 blue- and white-collar workers laid off from a Montreal aeronautical firm from January 1970 to March 1971. Components analysis is used to identify four combinations of job-search methods: 1) ex-employer, trade union or employees' association, special placement service (FD1); 2) private agencies, newspaper advertisements, manpower centres (FD2); 3) parents or friends, manpower centres, newspaper advertisements (FD3); personal initiatives (FD4). An analysis of these results suggests two new concepts: standard methods, i.e. those widely and habitually used by job searchers in general; supplementary methods, i.e. those used when standard methods fail to provide what the job searcher considers a satisfactory chance of getting a job. Combination FDI is interpreted as one of supplementary methods.

The second part of the article relates 64 variables, reduced to 21 factors representing various characteristics of job searchers (personal, occupational, financial, labour market behavior), to the four combinations of search methods, in an attempt to explain part of the method selection process. It is found that users of FD2 are relatively qualified, English-speaking, mobile and interested in training, and are likely to have found a job. Users of FD3 are characterized by their youth and their flexibility in terms of jobs and mobility. FD1, by contrast, appears to have been used by older workers with family responsibilities, who are likely to have remained continually unemployed after lay-off. This is seen as supporting the interpretation of FD1 as a combination of supplementary methods. Finally, the results indicate that the difference in behaviour between white- and blue-collar workers may not be as clear-out as is suggested in the literature; the demarcation appears to rest on the level of skill in either group, rather than on the collar-status itself.

It is concluded that the data analysed lend some support to the hypothesis formulated. Combinations of search methods detected by components analysis do appear to be related to identifiable categories of job searchers. The skill level is seen as a particularly important determinant of the selection process. Moreover, it is suggested that the concept of supplementary methods is sufficiently sustained by the data to warrant further study.
Le contrôle des prix et des revenus au Canada
Authors: Lipsey Richard G.
Published: July 2012

This paper is a summary of the Legal Factum submitted by the Canadian Labor Congress to the Supreme Court of Canada. It intends to demonstrate the irrelevance of the Anti-Inflationnary Act of October 1975. Three main questions are dealt with.

First, was there an economic crisis in October 1975? Analysing various sets of data, the paper concludes that, by no stretch of imagination, could October 1975 be called an economic crisis. Second, was there a policy crisis in the sense that traditional methods had been tried and failed? It establishes here that no serious attempt had been made to contain inflation by traditional fiscal and monetary tools by October 1975. Third, what results can be expected from income policies? This part gives a summary of the voluminous evidence for the U.K. and the U.S., and concludes that the evidence of other incomes policies is that their effects on slowing the rate of inflation are small and often transitory.
Prix du pétrole et degré de stabilité de l’OPEP
Authors: Ayoub Antoine
Published: July 2012

The stability of OPEC may be defined as the upholding of a high level of cohesion between the members of this organisation, in order to secure for the whole a certain level of bargaining power that everyone would think to be acceptable at a given time and in a given context. This level of cohesion is mainly estimated by the common will of members to apply rigorously a common strategy regarding the price-quantity of crude petroleum. In the long run, such a strategy would call for a common production plan in order to determine not only the total level of annual production, but also the quotas of each country, the price level and the rate of development of the capacity of production.

The aim of this paper is to contribute to the bringing out of a problematic regarding such a production plan as a whole. The main topics are: (1) the necessity of OPEC, (2) the price determination of petroleum, (3) the question of the instability of a coalition. The analysis accounts for the fact that the petroleum sector produces a non-renewable resource, on the one hand, and for the environment and international constraints that the member countries of OPEC have to face in their development process, on the other hand.
La théorie des prix de transfert internes des grandes sociétés
Authors: Copithorne Lawrence W.
Published: July 2012

There is considerable merit in thinking of the modern multidivisional corporation as an economy within itself. There is an important similarity between the interaction of divisions within a corporation and the perfectly competitive economic model formulated by Leon Walras1. When we look at modern corporations from this viewpoint we discover that much of what we know in general equilibrium economics may have considerable application inside modern corporations. Some of our existing theorems help clarify distinctions between decentralization and central control in corporate management in the same way that they clarify the distinctions between the market economies and those that run by central decree. They help distinguish which divisions must be centrally managed and those which can be left to look after themselves. This viewpoint offers new insights too—that, for instance, the products transferred between divisions may quite logically have two transfer prices instead of one. This viewpoint also permits an easy synthesis of the existing literature on transfer pricing. While the transfer pricing issue is especially important for multinational and international corporations which transfer goods and services between divisions located in different countries, the principles generally apply to any multidivisional corporation. The purposes of this paper are to present a simple, but general analytic model of the multidivisional corporation, to use it to make a synthesis of the existing literature on transfer pricing, and to make some important new discoveries.

1 Léon Walras, Elements of Pure Economics, édité et traduit par W. Jaffe (London : George Allen and Unwin, 1954). Kenneth Arrow fait mention de cette similitude dans son article : « Optimization, Decentralization and Internal Pricing in Business Firms », Contributions to Scientific Research in Management, 9-18, Western Data Processing Centre, Los Angeles, University of California Press, 1961.
La théorie néo-classique de la demande de capital : problèmes théoriques de spécification
Authors: Loranger Jean-Guy
Published: July 2012

This paper is a critique of the neoclassical theory of investment behavior advanced by Jorgenson and others. The main conclusions are as following:
Le traité de réciprocité 1854-1866
Authors: Latulippe Jean-Guy
Published: July 2012

"Reciprocity is a relation between two independent powers, such that the citizens of each are guaranteed certain commercial privileges at the hands of the others". The arrangement obtained under the Reciprocity Treaty of 1854 might perhaps be appropriately described as a partial "free-trade area" rather than as a "customs union" since the United States and the British North American Provinces were not assumed to draw up a common tariff schedule for their imports from the outside countries. Each participant maintains its own duties against other countries or even colonies.

The Reciprocity Treaty permitted free access in the coastal fisheries to Americans and abolished duties on a wide range of natural products (grain, flour, fish, livestock, coal, timber and other less important natural produce). At the same time, American vessels were admitted to the use of Canadian canals on the same terms as British and colonial vessels. Reciprocity was to apply to Canadian vessels going to United States.

In the late 1840's the B.N.A. Provinces were faced by that policy which the literature has called "Little Englandism". When Britain repealed the corn laws and gradually the preferential tariffs on timber the B.N.A. Provinces were shocked to be left on their own. A new commercial system had to be developed: reciprocity was the answer. But, it could have been something else: protection or annexion.

The direction of the external trade changes with the Reciprocity Treaty. Before 1851, Britain was Canada's main partner (59% of Canada's Exports). But a decade later, the United States was both Canada's major supplier and its best customer. Neither the Treaty nor the loss of preference in the British Market succeeded in destroying the Trade of B.N.A. Provinces with the United Kingdom. In fact, trade with Britain was greater in 1865 than in 1854. Later, in 1870, Britain took back its leading position. What we see is a diversion of trade from Britain to the United States and back to Britain where the basic commercial connections were well established.

The Treaty was disappointing for the "dream" of using the St. Lawrence as the main route to capture the trade of the West did not materialize.

The consequence of abrogation was less unfortunate than had in some quarters been anticipated. The Treaty came late after the abolition of the preferential tariffs, and it was disturbed by major events (the crisis of 1857; the American Civil War). After the treaty, recovery of the American currency reconstruction, proximity of the two countries, a new boom in foreign investment in Canada, etc., combined to reduce considerably the potential blow to Canada of the Abrogation. The agreement lasted for twelve years and was finally overwhelmed by the rising tide of protectionism and commercial jealousies and political hostilities of the time.

Reciprocity, Confederation, the Nation Policy, the St. Lawrence Seaway (1840/1950), the National Corporations, the pipelines are all the elements of the same continuum: economic and political integration of isolated markets in North America.
La politique commerciale fédérale et l’économie québécoise
Authors: Tremblay Rodrigue
Published: July 2012

It is argued in this paper that both normative and objective considerations must be taken into consideration in the formulation of tariff policy. Moreover, it is shown that static and partial equilibrium analyses can be disastrously misleading in guiding the framing of tariff policy.

Regarding the regional impact of tariffs, it is shown that within a monetary union, interregional trade flows reflect absolute production and transport cost advantages and that the non-realization of perfect domestic mobility of factors of production entails social and private adjustment costs that must be reckoned with in the cost-benefit analysis of any shift in trade policy.

From the standpoint of Quebec, a French-speaking political entity, the Canadian trade area is far from being optimal. The tendency for Canadian market-oriented economic activity to polarize in Ontario behind tariff walls, accompanied by a large movement of foreign enterprises, pushes the Quebec economy towards the least attractive and the most vulnerable industries among those oriented towards the Canadian common market. A rationalization of these laggard Quebec industries and an up-grading of resources-oriented economic activity would then benefit from the removal of both Canadian and American tariffs. Among Canadian trade options, therefore, Quebec would potentially benefit most from a gradual move toward a North-American free trade area, with ad hoc measures for certain industries, but should reject the world-wide free trade and unilateral free trade options because of the serious industrial dislocations and factors of production outflows they would create.