bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Parsimonious Estimation of Signal Detection Models from Conﬁdence Ratings
Authors: Selker Ravi , van den Bergh Don , Criss Amy H. , Wagenmakers Eric-Jan
Published: July 2018

Signal Detection Theory (SDT) is used to quantify people’s ability and biasin discriminating stimuli. The ability to detect a stimulus is often measuredthrough conﬁdence ratings. In SDT models, the use of conﬁdence ratingsnecessitates the estimation of conﬁdence category thresholds, a requirementthat can easily result in models that are overly complex. As a parsimoniousalternative, we propose a threshold SDT model that estimates these categorythresholds using only two parameters. We ﬁt the model to data from Pratte,Rouder, and Morey (2010) and illustrate its beneﬁts over previous thresholdSDT models.
Thoughts of death disrupt foresight: the 'ostrich bias'
Authors: de Vito Stefania , Neroni Maria Adriana , Bonnefon Jean-François , Della Sala Sergio , Capuozzo Alessandra , Engemann Denis A. , Brandimonte Maria Antonella
Published: July 2018

Humans have a predilection for optimistic personal scenarios when thinking of their future. They tend not to project stressful episodes into the future and are inclined to repress the idea of their vulnerability, to an extent that, when explicitly asked to think about their death, they use various cognitive strategies to deny it. In this study, we investigated the specific coping persons can use when required to construct personal future scenarios after imagining their own death. Our participants were asked to describe in details first the moment of their own’s death and then past and future personal events. We observed a selective reduction in specificity, but not in accessibility, of future simulations, whereas past episodes were normally re-constructed in all the conditions. We named this effect the ‘ostrich bias’. We interpreted it as a protective behaviour against future thoughts that could possibly direct toward an inescapable mental threat.
Dissociating sensory and cognitive theories of harmony perception through computational modeling
Authors: Harrison Peter M. C. , Pearce Marcus Thomas
Published: July 2018

Two approaches exist for explaining harmonic expectation. The sensory approach claims that harmonic expectation is a low-level process driven by sensory responses to acoustic properties of musical sounds. Conversely, the cognitive approach describes harmonic expectation as a high-level cognitive process driven by the recognition of syntactic structure learned through experience. Many previous studies have sought to distinguish these two hypotheses, largely yielding support for the cognitive hypothesis. However, subsequent re-analysis has shown that most of these results can parsimoniously be explained by a computational model from the sensory tradition, namely Leman’s (2000) model of auditory short- term memory (Bigand, Delbé, Poulin-Charronnat, Leman, & Tillmann, 2014). In this research we re-examine the explanatory power of auditory short-term memory models, and compare them to a new model in the Information Dynamics Of Music (IDyOM) tradition, which simulates a cognitive theory of harmony perception based on statistical learning and probabilistic prediction. We test the ability of these models to predict the surprisingness of chords within chord sequences (N = 300), as reported by a sample group of university undergraduates (N = 50). In contrast to previous studies, which typically use artificial stimuli composed in a classical idiom, we use naturalistic chord sequences sampled from a large dataset of popular music. Our results show that the auditory short-term memory models have remarkably low explanatory power in this context. In contrast, the new statistical learning model predicts surprisingness ratings relatively effectively. We conclude that auditory short-term memory is insufficient to explain harmonic expectation, and that cognitive processes of statistical learning and probabilistic prediction provide a viable alternative.
Does Player Age Affect the Home Advantage? Coaches’ Perceptions and Data from Professional Football
Authors: van de Ven Niels
Published: July 2018

We hypothesized that football (soccer) teams with older players perform better in away games. This hypothesis is based on research on the home advantage that shows that feeling more familiar with the playing venue and having a familiar pregame routine are important causes of the home advantage. Older players are relatively more familiar with the location in away games and we therefore predict teams with older players to perform better in those games. We find that coaches (with professional experience) indeed think that older players perform relatively better in away games. Data from the Dutch professional league (N = 3060) confirmed that there was a very small effect: teams with an average higher age performed better in away games (controlling for team quality). Although we do seem to confirm the predicted effect that teams that are on average older do better in away games, this effect is very small.
Liberals and conservatives are (geographically) dividing
Authors: Motyl Matt
Published: July 2018

This is a short chapter summarizing research on how liberals and conservatives in the United States have gravitated into segregated political silos.
Preprint "Effects of male testosterone and its interaction with cortisol on self- and observer-rated personality states in a competitive mating context"
Authors: Kordsmeyer Tobias L. , Penke Lars
Published: July 2018

Increases in human male testosterone (T) levels have been found after intrasexual competitions and exposure to females, facilitating competitive and courtship behaviours. This suggests that T reactivity should affect relevant personality state changes that are also observable to others. How exactly T reactivity, also under potential buffering effects of Cortisol (C), relates to personality state changes is unclear. In a preregistered study, we aimed at inducing T increases in young men (N=165) through dyadic intrasexual competitions while exposed to a female experimenter. We investigated self-reported and video-based observer-rated personality state changes, as captured by the Interpersonal Circumplex and social impressions, in relation to hormonal levels. Results revealed increases in self-reported competitiveness, as well as observer-rated dominance and self-assurance, relative to a control group and moderated by T reactivity and partly by TxC interactions. Thus, male T reactivity in a competitive mating context increased competitiveness/dominance, but did not decrease nurturance. This provides further insights into how hormonal and personality responses to challenges are intertwined in men, and partly supports a role of T in mediating a life history trade-off between mating/competing and parenting, as well as signalling dominance to rivals and potential mates.
Postoperative Predictors of Speech Reception in Cochlear Implant Users
Authors: Hansen Mads , Petersen Bjørn , Ovesen Therese , Bærentsen Klaus B.
Published: July 2018

In general, cochlear implant users see considerable benefit from their implant. Yet, there is great individual variation in speech reception. This study investigated whether individual differences in auditory and visual working memory abilities are related to speech reception in noise. To this end, we administered two tests of working memory – the WAIS-III Digit Span and PyVDT, a visual monitoring task – to 25 cochlear implant users. We found duration of profound hearing loss and age at profound hearing loss to be the best predictors of speech reception. We did not find Digit Span scores or visual monitoring as measured by the PyVDT to be useful predictors of speech reception. Additionally, we compared the Digit Span scores of our sample of cochlear implant users to the Danish WAIS-III Digit Span normative sample. On the Digit Span Forward, cochlear implant users scored approximately one digit lower than the normative mean; on the Digit Span Backward, cochlear implant users scored approximately half a digit lower than the normative mean. The study found no support for the ideas that auditory or visual working memory predicts speech reception. Our results instead indicate that shorter durations of hearing loss predict good speech reception outcomes, and vice versa.
BIMBINGAN DAN KONSELING ISLAM SOLUSI MENJAGA DAN MENINGKATKAN KESEHATAN MENTAL
Authors: Maba Aprezo Pardodi , Hernisawati  , Mukhlishin Ahmad
Published: July 2018

Bimbingan dan Konseling islam di Indonesia sudah ada sejak pesantren di dirikan, hanya saja pada saat itu belum mengenal istilah bimbingan dan konseling. Praktiknya cenderung implisit dalam berbagai praktek budaya yang ditandai dengan adanya hubungan terapiutik. Seiring masuknya keilmuan bimbingan dan konseling di Indonesia, yang kemudian hari berkembang dengan pesat, muncul kesadaran akan adanya keterbatasan dan pertentangan beberapa pandangan pendekatan barat dengan ajaran Islam, maka para pakar mulai membangun sebuah pendekatan baru yang disebut dengan bimbingan dan konseling islam. Hingga saat ini, bimbingan dan konseling islam menjadi salah satu pendekatan yang efektif mengentaskan berbagai masalah untuk menjaga kesehatan mental konseli.
Effects of facial skin smoothness and blemishes on trait impressions
Authors: Jaeger Bastian , Wagemans Fieke Maria Antoinet , Evans Anthony M , van Beest Ilja
Published: July 2018

People make trait inferences based on facial appearance, and these inferences guide social approach and avoidance. Here, we investigate the effects of textural features on trait impressions from faces. In contrast to previous work, which exclusively manipulated skin smoothness, we manipulated smoothness and the presence of skin blemishes independently (Study 1) and orthogonally (Study 2). We hypothesized that people are particularly sensitive to skin blemishes because blemishes potentially indicate poor health and the presence of an infectious disease. We therefore predicted that the negative effect of blemished skin is stronger than the positive effect of smoothed skin. The results of both studies are in line with this reasoning. Across ratings of trustworthiness, competence, maturity, attractiveness, and health, the negative influence of skin blemishes was stronger and more consistent than the positive influence of skin smoothness (Study 1). Moreover, the presence of skin blemishes diminished the positive effect of skin smoothness on attractiveness ratings (Study 2). In sum, both facial skin blemishes and facial skin smoothness influence trait impression, but the negative effect of blemished skin is larger and more salient than the positive effect of smooth skin.
Ad-hoc pragmatic implicatures among Shipibo-Konibo children in the Peruvian Amazon
Authors: Fortier Martin , Kellier Danielle , Flecha Mari Fernández , Frank Michael C.
Published: July 2018

Pragmatic reasoning – the ability to infer the intended meaning of an utterance in context – is one of the core aspects of language comprehension. Yet classic linguistic accounts of pragmatics may not apply as consistently in non-WEIRD (western, educated, industrialized, rich, democratic) contexts. Children’s ability to reason pragmatically increases across childhood in U.S. and European communities. Ad hoc (contextual) implicatures tend to emerge around age four, but this pattern has not been studied cross-culturally. We conducted a study of the development of ad-hoc implicatures in Shipibo-Konibo communities in the Peruvian Amazon – a culture with a holistic orientation that might be expected to lead to a decrease in the felicity of implicatures, inferences which typically lead to restrictions on context. While 8–10 year-olds successfully made these implicatures, younger children did not, despite successfully understanding control trials. These findings suggest that ad-hoc implicatures are available interpretations, even in a community with different cultural expectations, but that their development may be more protracted.
Ordinal Regression Models in Psychology: A Tutorial
Authors: Bürkner Paul - Christian , Vuorre Matti
Published: July 2018

Ordinal variables, while extremely common in Psychology, are almost exclusively analysed with statistical models that falsely assume them to be metric. This practice can lead to distorted effect size estimates, inflated error rates, and other problems. We argue for the application of ordinal models that make appropriate assumptions about the variables under study. In this tutorial article, we first explain the three major ordinal model classes; the cumulative, sequential and adjacent category models. We then show how to fit ordinal models in a fully Bayesian framework with the R package brms, using data sets on stem cell opinions and marriage time courses. Appendices provide detailed mathematical derivations of the models and a discussion of censored ordinal models. Ordinal models provide better theoretical interpretation and numerical inference from ordinal data, and we recommend their widespread adoption in Psychology.
The psychology of hate: Moral concerns differentiate hate from dislike
Authors: Pretus Clara , Ray Jennifer Lauren , Granot Yael , Cunningham William A. , Van Bavel Jay Joseph
Published: July 2018

We investigated whether any differences in the psychological conceptualization of hate and dislike were simply a matter of degree of negativity (i.e., hate falls on the end of the continuum of dislike) or also morality (i.e., hate is imbued with distinct moral components that distinguish it from dislike). In three lab studies in Canada and the US, participants reported disliked and hated attitude objects and rated each on dimensions including valence, attitude strength, morality, and emotional content. Quantitative and qualitative measures revealed that hated attitude objects were more negative than disliked attitude objects and associated with moral beliefs and emotions, even after adjusting for differences in negativity. In study four, we analyzed the rhetoric on real hate sites and complaint forums and found that the language used on prominent hate websites contained more words related to morality, but not negativity, relative to complaint forums.
Executive Function and Academic Achievement: Longitudinal Relations from Early Childhood to Adolescence.
Authors: Ahmed Sammy F. , Tang Sandra , Waters Nicholas E , Davis-Kean Pamela
Published: July 2018

Data from the NICHD Study of Early Child Care (N = 1273) were analyzed to assess the longitudinal relations among executive function (EF) components in early childhood (54 months) and adolescence (15 years) and their prediction of academic achievement. We found that after controlling for early achievement, demographic and home environment variables, only working memory at 54 months significantly predicted working memory at 15 years and that working memory was the only significant EF predictor of achievement at age 15. In contrast, all early achievement measures were significant predictors of later achievement. Further, no demographic or home environment variables at 54 months significantly predicted EF at 15, and only maternal education significantly explained variance in adolescent math and literacy achievement. These findings demonstrate the predictability of working memory and highlight its importance for academic outcomes across development. However, the lack of associations of preschool inhibition and attention measures, after controlling for early achievement, demographic and home environment variables, to corresponding measures in adolescence suggests the need for more developmentally sensitive measures of EF. Given that the EF measures used in this study are commonly used in educational and psychological research, more care should go into understanding the psychometric properties across development.
College Student Samples Are Not Always Equivalent: The Magnitude of Personality Differences across Colleges and Universities
Authors: Corker Katherine S. , Donnellan Brent , Kim Su Yeong , Schwartz Seth J. , Zamboanga Byron
Published: July 2018

Objective: This research examined the magnitude of personality differences across different colleges and universities to understand (1) how much students at different colleges vary from one another and (2) whether there are site level variables that can explain observed differences.Method: Nearly 8,600 students at 30 colleges and universities completed a Big Five personality trait measure. Site level information was obtained from the Integrated Post-Secondary Education System database (U.S.Department of Education).Results: Multi-level models revealed that each of the Big Five traits showed significant between-site variability, even after accounting for individual level demographic differences. Some site-level variables (e.g., enrollment size, requiring letters of recommendation) explained between-site differences in traits, but many tests were not statisticallysignificant.Conclusions: Student samples at different universities differed in terms of average levels of Big Five personality domains. This raises the possibility that personality differences may explain differences in research results obtained when studying students at different colleges and universities. Furthermore, results suggest that research that compares findings for only a few sites (e.g., much cross cultural research) runs the risk of overgeneralizing differences between specific samples to broader group differences. These results underscore the value of multisite collaborative research efforts to enhance psychological research.
Predictive modeling for response to lithium and quetiapine in bipolar disorder
Authors: Kim Thomas , Dufour Steven , Xu Colin , Cohen Zachary Daniel , Sylvia Louisa , Deckersbach Thilo , Nierenberg Andy
Published: July 2018

Objectives: Lithium and quetiapine are known to be effective treatments for bipolar disorder. However, little information is available to inform prediction of response to these medications. Machine-learning methods can identify predictors of response by examining variables simultaneously. Further evaluation of models on a test sample can estimate how well these models would generalize to other samples. Methods: Data (N=482) were drawn from a randomized clinical trial of outpatients with bipolar-I or II disorder who received adjunctive personalized treatment plus either lithium or quetiapine. Elastic Net Regularization (ENR) was used to generate models for lithium and quetiapine; these models were evaluated on a test set. Results: Predictions from the lithium model explained 17.4% of the variance in actual observed scores of patients who received lithium in the test set, while predictions from the quetiapine model explained 32.1% of the variance of patients that received quetiapine. Of the baseline variables selected, those with the largest parameter estimates were: severity of mania; attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) comorbidity; non-suicidal self-injurious behavior; employment; and comorbidity with each of two anxiety disorders (social phobia/society anxiety and agoraphobia). Predictive accuracy of the ENR model outperformed the simple and basic theoretical models.Conclusion: ENR is an effective approach for building optimal and generalizable models. Variables identified through this methodology can inform future research on predictors of response to lithium and quetiapine, as well as future modeling efforts of treatment choice in BD.
Interference in stimuli employed to assess masking by substitution
Authors: Skottun Bernt
Published: July 2018

Enns and Di Lollo (1997, Psychological Science, 8, 135-139) described a kind of visual masking termed”masking by substitution” in which a diamond-shaped target stimulus was masked by four small squares.The present study addresses the question of if , or to what extent, interference in the stimuli could reducetheir power. Interference was assesses based on (1) the sums of the amplitudes in the Fourier spectra,and (2) the norms of the Fourier spectra. The two methods gave interference effects of 17 % and 28%, respectively. It is concluded that in the case of the stimuli used by Enns and Di Lollo it cannot beassumed that the target stimulus has the same stimulus power when presented together with the maskingstimulus as when presented alone. The interference takes place in the stimuli and does not depend uponthe visual system.
The Descent with Modification of a Social Priming Paradigm. Tracing Srull & Wyer (1979) forward
Authors: Innes-Ker Åse
Published: July 2018

Adapting a time-line technique loosely based on historical research, I retrieved all papers that cited Srull & Wyer (1979) the first five years after publication, resulting in 53 papers. Of these 37 reported experiments, 8 were theoretical papers, 6 reviews and 2 other. Eleven of the experimental papers loosely extended the priming work, 22 reported work related to person perception without involving priming, and 20 reported work only obliquely related to the paper. Extending papers cited S & W multiple times, whereas those that did not tended to cite the paper only once. Citations had different functions from being peripheral to the argument to being central to the work. All citations were appropriate, and appeared to have interpreted the original research correctly.The eleven extending papers give a broad but non-systematic impression. The number of participants and observations are low. Most experiments are between subjects. Although the priming in S & W is strong, subsequent work quickly move toward priming techniques that are either subtle or designed to take place outside awareness. An r-index analysis of all extending papers suggests that expected reproducibility is low.
Are Infants Altercentric? The Other and the Self in Early Social Cognition
Authors: Southgate Victoria
Published: July 2018

From early in life, human infants appear capable of taking others’ perspectives, and can do so even when the other’s perspective conflicts with the infant’s own. Infants’ success in perspective-taking contexts implies that they are managing conflicting perspectives despite a wealth of data suggesting that doing so relies on sufficiently mature Executive Functions, and is a challenge even for adults. In a new theory, I propose that infants can take other’s perspectives because they have an altercentric bias. This bias results from a combination of the value that human cognition places on others’ attention, and an absence of a competing self-perspective, which would, in older children, create a conflict requiring resolution by Executive Functions. A self-perspective emerges with the development of cognitive self-awareness, sometime in the second year of life, at which point it leads to competition between perspectives. This theory provides a way of explaining infants’ ability to take others’ perspectives, but raises the possibility that they could do so without representing or understanding the implications of perspective for others’ mental states.
Cognitive Consistency Theory in Social Psychology: A Paradigm Reconsidered
Authors: Kruglanski Arie W. , Jasko Katarzyna , Milyavsky Maxim , Chernikova Marina , Webber David , Pierro Antonio , Di Santo Daniela
Published: July 2018

From the 1950s onward, psychologists have generally assumed that people possess a general need for cognitive consistency whose frustration by an inconsistency elicits negative affect. We offer a novel perspective on this issue by introducing the distinction between epistemic and motivational impact of consistent and inconsistent cognitions. The epistemic aspect is represented by the updated expectancy of the outcome addressed in such cognitions. The motivational aspect stems from value (desirability) of that outcome. We show that neither the outcome’s value nor its updated expectancy are systematically related to cognitive consistency or inconsistency. Consequently, we question consistency’s role in the driving of affective responses, and the related presumption of a universal human need for cognitive consistency.
Cross-Culture Adaptation and Psychometric Properties of the DrInC questionnaire in Tanzanian Swahili
Authors: Vissoci Joao Ricardo Nickenig
Published: July 2018

To develop Swahili versions of the Drinker Inventory of Consequences (DrInC) and evaluate its psychometric properties among a mixed population in Tanzania.Methods: A Swahili version of the DrInC was developed by a panel of bilingual Swahili and English speakers through translation and back-translation. The translated DrInC was administered to a sample of Tanzanian injury patients and a sample of general population. The validity and reliability of the scale were tested using standard statistical methods.Results: The translated version of DrInC questionnaire was found to have outstanding domain coherence and language clarity. The tested scale and subscales have adequate reliability (>0.85). Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the five-factor solution by yielding adequate results. DrInC score is statistically significantly correlated with alcohol consumption quantity and the AUDIT score, suggesting that DrInC is able to predict alcohol use as well. Conclusions: This study presents the first validation of the DrInC questionnaire with injury patients and a general population and the first adaptations of the DrInC questionnaire in the Tanzanian and Swahili setting. DrInC instrument was found to have satisfactory psychometric properties, resulting in a new medical and social research tool in this setting.
Cortical morphometry of the five-factor model of personality: Findings from the Human Connectome Project full sample
Authors: Owens Max Michael , Hyatt Courtland , Gray Joshua , MacKillop James , Sweet Lawrence , Miller Josh
Published: July 2018

This study is a conceptual replication of an existing large study (N = 507) on the surface-based morphometric correlates of Five-Factor Model (FFM) personality traits. Using another large sample drawn from the same population (N = 597), results were aggregated from both samples (N = 1104), providing the largest investigation into the neuroanatomical correlates of FFM personality traits to date. Multiple clusters of significant brain by personality associations were found in the aggregate sample, including one for Openness with cortical thickness in the left and right dorsolateral prefrontal cortex (DLPFC), one for Agreeableness with thickness in the left DLPFC, and one for Agreeableness with area and volume in the right DLPFC. Clusters were also found for Neuroticism with cortical surface area in the right DLPFC, for Neuroticism with cortical thickness in the DLPFC and medial prefrontal cortex, and for Neuroticism with area and volume in the cuneus. While many regions found in the prior study were confirmed in the new and full samples, others were not, highlighting the challenges in replicating even high-quality, well-powered studies. As a whole, the current results provide the strongest evidence to date on the neuroanatomical correlates of personality.
Confidence calibration in a multi-year geopolitical forecasting competition (CAC)
Authors: Moore Don A , Tenney Elizabeth R.
Published: July 2018

This research examines the development of confidence and accuracy over time in the context of forecasting. Although overconfidence has been studied in many contexts, little research examines its progression over long periods of time or in consequential policy domains. This study employs a unique data set from a geopolitical forecasting tournament spanning three years in which thousands of forecasters predicted the outcomes of hundreds of events. We sought to apply insights from research to structure the questions, interactions, and elicitations to improve forecasts. Indeed, forecasters’ confidence roughly matched their accuracy. As information came in, accuracy increased. Confidence increased at approximately the same rate as accuracy, and good calibration persisted. Nevertheless, there was evidence of a small amount of overconfidence (3%), especially on the most confident forecasts. Training helped reduce overconfidence and team collaboration improved forecast accuracy. Together, teams and training reduced overconfidence to 1%. Our results provide reason for tempered optimism regarding confidence calibration and its development over time in consequential field contexts.
Effects of Subject-Case Marking on Agreement Processing: ERP evidence from Basque
Authors: Chow Wing Yee , Nevins Andrew , Carreiras Manuel
Published: July 2018

Previous cross-linguistic research has found that comprehenders are immediately sensitive to various kinds of agreement violations across languages. We focused on Basque, a verb-final ergative language with both subject-verb (S-V) and object-verb (O-V) agreement. We compared the effects of S-V agreement violations on comprehenders’ event-related brain potentials (ERPs) in transitive sentences (where O-V agreement is present, and the subject is ergative) and intransitive sentences (where O-V agreement is absent, and the subject is absolutive). We observed a P600 effect in both cases, but only violations with intransitive subjects elicited an early posterior negativity. Such a qualitative difference suggests that distinct neurocognitive mechanisms are involved in processing agreement with transitive subjects (which are marked with ergative case) vs. intransitive subjects (which bear absolutive case). Building on theoretical proposals that in languages such as Basque, true agreement occurs with absolutive subjects but not with ergative subjects, we submit that the early posterior negativity may be an electrophysiological signature for true agreement.
How biopsychosocial depressive risk shapes behavioral and neural responses to social evaluation in adolescence.
Authors: Stretton Jason , Walsh Nicholas , mobbs dean , Schweizer Susanne , Van Harmelen Anne-Laura , Lombardo MIchael , Goodyer Ian , Dalgleish Tim
Published: July 2018

Understanding the emotional responsivity style and neurocognitive profiles of depression-related processes in at-risk youth may be helpful in revealing those most likely to develop affective disorders. However, the multiplicity of biopsychosocial risk factors makes it difficult to disentangle unique and combined effects at a neurobiological level. In a population-derived sample of 56 older adolescents (aged 17-20), we adopted Partial Least Squares regression and correlation models to explore the relationships between multivariate biopsychosocial risks for later depression, emotional response style and fMRI activity, to rejecting and inclusive social feedback. Behaviorally, higher depressive risk was associated with both reduced negative affect following negative social feedback and reduced positive affect following positive social feedback. In response to both cues of rejection and inclusion, we observed a general neural pattern of increased cingulate, temporal and striatal activity in the brain. Secondly, in response to rejection only, we observed a pattern of activity in ostensibly executive control- and emotion regulation-related brain regions encompassing fronto-parietal brain networks including the angular gyrus. The results suggest that risk for depression is associated with a pervasive emotional insensitivity in the face of positive and negative social feedback.
Winners and losers: Communicating the potential impacts of policies (post-print)
Authors: Brick Cameron
Published: July 2018

There is increasing attention to supporting individual decision-makers with communications that succinctly describe potential harms and benefits of different options, but policymakers or citizens evaluating a policy are rarely given a balanced and easily-understood summary of the potential outcomes of their decision. We review current policy option communication across diverse domains such as taxes, health, climate change, and international trade, followed by reviews of guidance and evidence for communication effectiveness. Our conceptual synthesis identifies four characteristics of policy options that make their communication particularly difficult: heterogeneous impacts on different segments of the population, multiple outcomes, long timescales, and large uncertainties. For communicators that are trying to inform rather than persuade, these complexities reveal a core tension between issue coverage and comprehensibility. We found little empirical evidence for how to communicate policy options effectively. We identify promising current communications, analyze them based on the above synthesis, and suggest priorities for future research. Recognizing the particular challenges of balanced, effective policy option communications could lead to better guidelines and support for policy decision-making.
The Family Ties That Protect: Expanded-Self Comparisons in Parent-Child Relationships
Authors: Thai Sabrina , Lockwood Penelope
Published: July 2018

We examine whether individuals react to social comparisons involving their parent or child as they would to comparisons involving the self. Individuals reported high self-other overlap for mother and child, but not father (Pilot Study), suggesting that individuals may experience mother’s and child’s outcomes as their own. After recalling upward comparisons, high overlap children (undergraduate students; Study 1) protect their perceptions of their mother, but not father, and parents (with children 18 or younger; Studies 2-3), regardless of overlap, protect their perceptions of their child: They changed the meaning of threatening upward comparisons by rating domains as less important and attributing less responsibility to family members. Finally, we examined self-attributions to rule out the alternative explanation that individuals use these strategies to protect themselves because they feel personally responsible for family members’ outcomes. These studies suggest that individuals experience mother, but not father, comparisons as if they were directly involved but only if they are high in overlap. In contrast, parents experience child comparisons as if they were comparing themselves directly regardless of overlap.
The Malleability of Linguistic Representations Poses a Challenge to the Priming-based Experimental Approach. Commentary on Branigan & Pickering (2017)
Authors: Ryskin Rachel Anna , Brown-Schmidt Sarah
Published: July 2018

Recent findings show that experience with a syntactic structure has long-term consequences for how that structure will be processed in the future, which suggests linguistic representations are not static entities that can be reliably probed without alteration. Thus, leveraging the effect of previous exposure to a syntactic structure appears to be an inappropriate method for studying invariant properties of language.
Modulating Proactive Cognitive Control by Reward: Differential Anticipatory Effects of Performance Contingent and Non-Contingent Rewards
Authors: Yamaguchi Motonori
Published: July 2018

The present study investigated the influences of two different forms of reward presentation in modulating cognitive control. In three experiments, participants performed a flanker task for which one-third of trials were precued for a chance of obtaining a reward (reward trials). In Experiment 1, a reward was provided if participants made the correct response on reward trials but a penalty was given if they made an incorrect response on these trials. The anticipation of this performance-contingent reward increased response speed and reduced the flanker effect but had little influence on the sequential modulation of the flanker effect after incompatible trials. In Experiment 2, participants obtained a reward randomly on two-thirds of the precued reward trials and were given a penalty on the remaining one-third, regardless of their performance. The anticipation of this non-contingent reward had little influence on the overall response speed or flanker effect but reduced the sequential modulation of the flanker effect after incompatible trials. Experiment 3 also used performance non-contingent rewards but participants were randomly penalized more often than they were rewarded; non-contingent penalty had little influence on the sequential modulation of the flanker effect. None of the three experiments showed a reliable influence of the actual acquisition of rewards on task performance. These results indicate anticipatory effects of performance contingent and non-contingent rewards on cognitive control with little evidence of aftereffects.
Interface Theory vs Gibson: An Ontological Defence of the Ecological Approach
Authors: Wilson Andrew D
Published: July 2018

Interface theory (Hoffman, Singh & Prakesh, 2015) is the hypothesis that inferential, representational theories of perception entail that fitness, not truth, dictates the evolution of perceptual systems. They show, with simulations, that ‘veridical’ perceptual mappings (ones that preserve at least some of the structure of the world) are routinely out-competed by ‘non-veridical’ interfaces (ones that make no attempt to preserve that structure). They therefore take particular aim at the direct perception, ecological approach to perception (Gibson, 1966, 1979; Turvey, Shaw Reed & Mace, 1981) and work to show that such a system, even if technically an option, would never be selected for by evolution.. This commentary defends the ecological approach from this novel attack by showing that a) Gibson does not make the mistakes he is accused of and, more substantively b) that the ecological hypothesis is so different in kind to the inferential, representational view of perception that it simply falls outside the scope of interface theory’s critiques. The heart of this defence is identifying the profoundly different ontologies (assumptions about the nature of the world to be perceived) underlying inferential and ecological approaches, and examining the consequences of these ontologies (including key problems for the inferential ontology that interface theory makes clear). Interface theory is a strong, clear formalisation of the inferential ontology, but it has no fatal implications for the ecological approach.
Identification with arts-based groups improves mental wellbeing in adults with chronic mental health conditions
Authors: Williams Elyse , Dingle Genevieve , Jetten Jolanda , Rowan Christian
Published: July 2018

People experiencing chronic mental health conditions often report feeling socially marginalised. There is emerging evidence that social and mental wellbeing can be enhanced through arts-based programs. In this paper, a social identity theoretical approach was applied to explore how participation in the arts may improve mental health in a longitudinal study. A one-year prospective study of 34 choir members and 25 creative writing group members (Mage = 46, 51% female) with chronic mental health conditions, involved three assessments of participants’ group identification and mental wellbeing, measured by the Warwick Edinburgh Mental Wellbeing Scale. The programs were community-based and facilitated by arts professionals. Multilevel modelling analyses demonstrated that participants’ mental wellbeing significantly improved over time. Greater identification with their arts based group was significantly related to an increased rate of improvement in mental wellbeing. The trajectory of improvement in mental wellbeing did not differ between participants partaking in the choir or creative writing group. This study demonstrates that participation in arts-based groups can be effective in improving mental wellbeing in adults with chronic mental health problems, particularly for those who strongly identify with the group. This study supports arts-based group participation as an accessible component of mental health services.
Quantifying Support for the Null Hypothesis in Psychology: An Empirical Investigation
Authors: Aczel Balazs , Palfi Bence , Szollosi Aba , Kovacs Marton , Szaszi Barnabas , Szecsi Peter , Zrubka Mark , Gronau Quentin Frederik , van den Bergh Don , Wagenmakers Eric-Jan
Published: July 2018

In the traditional statistical framework, nonsignificant results leave researchers in a state of suspended disbelief. This study examines, empirically, the treatment and evidential impact of nonsignificant results. Our specific goals were twofold: to explore how psychologists interpret and communicate nonsignificant results, and to assess how much these results constitute evidence in favor of the null hypothesis. Firstly, we examined all nonsignificant findings mentioned in the abstracts of the 2015 volume of Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, and Psychological Science (N = 137). In 72% of cases, nonsignificant results were misinterpreted, in the sense that authors inferred that the effect was absent. Secondly, a Bayes factor reanalysis revealed that fewer than 5% of the nonsignificant findings provided strong evidence (i.e., BF01 > 10) in favor of the null hypothesis compared to the alternative hypothesis. We recommend that researchers expand their statistical toolkit in order to correctly interpret nonsignificant results and to be able to evaluate the evidence for and against the null hypothesis.
The Cooperative Revolution is Making Psychological Science Better
Authors: Chartier Christopher R. , Kline Struhl Melissa , McCarthy Randy J. , Nuijten Michele B. , Dunleavy Daniel J. , Ledgerwood Alison
Published: July 2018

An Open Letter to Producers and Consumers of Psychological Science
Structured priors in human forecasting
Authors: Quiroga Francisco , Schulz Eric , Speekenbrink Maarten , Harvey Nigel
Published: July 2018

Forecasting is an increasingly important part of our daily lives. Many studies on how people produce forecasts frame their behavior as prone to systematic errors. Based on recent evidence on how people learn about functions, we propose that participants' forecasts are not irrational but rather driven by structured priors, i.e. situationally induced expectations of structure derived from experience with the real world. To test this, we extract participants' priors over various contexts using a free-form forecasting paradigm. Instead of exhibiting systematic biases, our results show that participants' priors match well with structure found in real-world data. Moreover, given the same data set, structured priors induce predictably different posterior forecasts depending on the evoked situational context.
Validation of the Empathy Index in a Brazilian Sample
Authors: Shiramizu Victor Kenji Medeiros , Yamamoto Maria Emília
Published: July 2018

Definitions of the term “empathy” have long been discussed. Recent evidence suggests that “empathy” and “concern” (also known as “compassion”) are psychologically and physiologically distinct. These distinctions directly affect the psychometric measures used to assess empathy. A new measure called the Empathy Index (EI) has been proposed that assesses empathy strictly in terms of emotional contagion. However, this measure has not been validated using Brazilian Portuguese language. Our objective was therefore to translate, culturally adapt, and examine the psychometric properties of the EI in a Brazilian population. We also examined the EI’s relationship with the Interpersonal Reactivity Index (IRI). In Study 1 (N=483), we explored the relationship between EI and IRI through factor analysis. Empathy and concern loaded on different factors. The EI subscales showed adequate Cronbrach’s alphas and concern, but not empathy, predicted contributions during an economic game. In Study 2 (N=215), confirmatory factor analyses confirmed the factorial structure of EI and its relation with IRI. Therefore, we consider that the Brazilian version of the EI showed good evidence of both validity and reliability.
Comparing methods for measuring crime harm/severity
Authors: Ashby Matthew P J
Published: July 2018

Ensuring police resources are focused where they are most needed requires understanding of the consequences of crime in relation to offenders, victims and places. Most crime analysis is based on counts of crimes, but not all crimes are equivalent to one another. Researchers have recently developed two methods – the Crime Harm Index and the Crime Severity Score – for weighting crime counts according to the severity of different crime types. This article compares these two methods by applying them to two common crime-analysis scenarios: focusing resources on the most-important types of crime and in the areas most affected by crime. The two measures are found to produce substantially different results when other factors are held constant. The results of severity-weighted crime analysis (and the decision made based on them) could therefore be greatly influenced by the method chosen. The implications of this are discussed and future research avenues outlined.
The invention, transmission and evolution of writing: Insights from the new scripts of West Africa
Authors: Kelly Piers
Published: July 2018

West Africa is a fertile zone for the invention of new scripts. As many as 20 have been devised since the 1830s (Dalby 1967, 1968, 1969, inter alia) including one created as recently as 2002 (Mbaye 2011). Talented individuals with no formal literacy are likely to have invented at least three of these scripts, suggesting that they had reverse-engineered the ‘idea of writing’ on the same pattern as the Cherokee script, i.e. with minimal external input. Influential scholars like Edward Tylor, A. L. Kroeber and I. J. Gelb were to approach West African scripts as naturalistic experiments in which the variable of explicit literacy instruction was eliminated. Thus, writing systems such as Vai and Bamum were invoked as productive models for theorising the dynamics of cultural evolution (Tylor [1865] 1878, Gelb [1952] 1963), the diffusion of novel technologies (Kroeber 1940), the acquisition of literacy (Forbes 1850, Migeod 1911, Scribner and Cole 1981) the cognitive processing of language (Kroeber 1940, Gelb [1952] 1963), and the evolution of writing itself (Gelb [1952] 1963; Dalby 1967, 2). This paper revisits the three West African scripts that are known to have been devised by non-literates. By comparing the linguistic, semiotic and sociohistorical contexts of each known case I suggest various circumstances that may have favoured their invention, transmission and diffusion. I argue that while the originators of scripts drew inspiration from known systems such as Roman and Arabic, they are likely to have drawn on indigenous pictorial culture and annotation systems to develop their own scripts. Once established, their creations were used to circumscribe an alternative politico-religious discourse in direct opposition to the discourses of colonial administrations. The appeal of these scripts were thus tied more to their relative indexical power than their apparent technological or cognitive advantages. Just as earlier theorists imagined, I contend that West African scripts do have the potential to illuminate historical processes of creativity, transmission and evolution, but only when local particularities are given due consideration.
Sowing the seeds of skepticism: Russian state news and anti-GMO sentiment
Authors: Dorius Shawn F , Lawrence-Dill Carolyn J
Published: July 2018

Biotech news coverage in English-language Russian media fits the profile of the Russian information warfare strategy described in recent military reports. This raises the question of whether Russia views the dissemination of anti-GMO information as just one of many divisive issues it can exploit as part of its information war, or if GMOs serve more expansive disruptive purposes. Distinctive patterns in Russian news provide evidence that Russia is conducting a coordinated campaign to turn public opinion against genetically modified organisms. The recent branding of Russian agriculture as the ecologically clean alternative to genetically engineered foods is suggestive of an economic motive behind the information campaign against western biotechnologies.