bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Population trends of nonmetropolitan cities and villages in subregions of the united states
Authors: Fuguitt Glenn V. , Beale Calvin L.
Published: March 2007

This is a comparison of the 1950-1970 trends in population size of U.S. nonmetropolitan cities and villages among 26 homogeneous subregions. There are wide variations in the proportion of the nonmetropolitan population in incorporated places, and, though this proportion generally increased over the 1950-1970 period, decentralizing tendencies also are evident. There was most often a decline in the differential between the growth rate of incorporated places and of open country over the two decades. The positive association between initial size of place and growth, present in half of the subregions in the 1950s and indicative of population centralization, was found only in the Corn Belt, Great Plains, and Rocky Mountain subregions in the 1960s. There were regionally distinctive differences in all variables considered; most notably, the percent of places growing ranged 50 percentage points over the 26 subregions. The extent of subregional variation revealed by this analysis indicates how differences in physiography, climate, history, and economy continue to be reflected in settlement trends which are obscured when larger regional groupings are used.
A short note on the taeuber paradox
Authors: Mitra S.
Published: March 2007

When the force of mortality is reduced by a constant fraction 0 at every age, the relative increase in life expectancy e(0) can be measured by δH, where H is determined by the l(a) values of the life table. Although H is not easily reducible in terms of the well-known life table parameters, it has been shown that it can be approximately estimated by 2 – e(0)/à in which d is the average age of the stationary population. It has been found that, for a given value of 0, the relative gain in life expectancy is less appreciable in countries with larger values of e(0).
What is the annual net flow of undocumented mexican immigrants to the united states?
Authors: Heer David M.
Published: March 2007

Senior government officials have claimed that in recent years an average of 1.4 million illegal aliens have entered the United States annually without apprehension. This conjectural figure does not take into account the fact that the net flow of immigrants is always less than the gross flow. In this paper, seven estimates are made concerning the net flow of undocumented Mexican immigrants to the United States in the period 1970–1975. These estimates are based on the growth of the population of Mexican origin according to the Current Population Survey. According to these estimates the annual net flow ranged from 82,300 to 232,400 persons.
A new technique to estimate infant mortality with an application for El Salvador and Colombia
Authors: Palloni Alberto
Published: March 2007

The paper presents new estimates of infant mortality for Colombia and El Salvador for the years 1950–1970. These estimates are obtained by using a technique which improves on Brass’s method in that it suppresses the assumption of constant mortality and introduces instead assumptions about linear and nonlinear changes in mortality risks affecting various cohorts of individuals.
A note on the analysis of parity progression ratios
Authors: Curtin Lester R. , Frockt I. Joel , Koch Gary G.
Published: March 2007

Contingency table modeling procedures are proposed to examine the effects of independent variables on parity progression ratios. The methodology is outlined and an incremental-factorial linear model is developed.
Analyzing migration decisions: the first step—whose decisions?
Authors: Sell Ralph R.
Published: March 2007

Many theories of geographic mobility assume that the change-of-residence process includes a substantial degree of choice. This paper classifies stated reasons for moving from the 1973 through 1977 Annual Housing Survey into forced, imposed, and preference-dominated categories. About 25 percent of residential mobility and 40 percent of migration occurred under conditions of substantial constraint. Mobility was most often constrained by family dynamics; for migration, occupational relocations frequently imposed the decision-to-move process and determined destinations. The volume of constrained movement indicates that its impact upon individuals, population dynamics, and voluntaristic theories of mobility deserves greater consideration.
Female Employment and Reproductive Behavior in Taiwan, 1980
Authors: Stokes C. Shannon , Hsieh Yeu-Sheng
Published: March 2007

The impact of female employment on fertility preferences and behavior is examined with data from a 1980national sample of Taiwanese women. The guiding hypothesis is that the greater the involvement of women in the impersonal market sector, the lower the fertility preferences, the longer the first birth interval, and the lower the actual fertility. Findings reveal that female employment in Taiwan is only weakly related to reproductive behavior. Even with increased participation of women in the modern market sector, female employment apparently has little impact on fertility preferences or behavior. Implications are drawn for policies aimed at lowering fertility.
Living Arrangements of the Elderly in Fiji, Korea, Malaysia, and the Philippines
Authors: Martin Linda G.
Published: March 2007

Using logit techniques and data from surveys of the elderly conducted in 1984 under the auspices of the World Health Organization, this article investigates socioeconomic, cultural, and demographic determinants of living arrangements of the elderly. Having a spouse or children with whom to live has important effects on living arrangements. The results provide only weak support, however, for hypotheses based on modernization theory and point to the need for detailed data on transitions in living arrangements and for information about the younger generation as well as the older generation, both of which are involved in deciding who lives with whom.
Black/White Differences in Health Status and Mortality Among the Elderly
Authors: Berkman Lisa , Singer Burton , Manton Kenneth
Published: March 2007

Grade of membership (GOM) representations are used to characterize and compare the health status of a very heterogeneous sample of blacks and whites in an elderly cohort of 2,806 noninstitutionalized men and women living in New Haven, Connecticut. They were interviewed in 1982 as part of the Established Populations for the Epidemiologic Study of the Elderly (EPESE). Ideal profiles based on functional disabilities, chronic diseases, and selected biomedical and behavioral risk factors are constructed empirically. Each individual in the sample is represented by a set of GOM scores, interpreted as degrees of similarity of his or her health record to each of the profiles. Four profiles emerge from GOM analyses: healthy elderly, elderly with cognitive impairment, elderly with impairment in mobility function and physical performance and with selected chronic conditions, and elderly with major limitations in activities of daily living and multiple chronic conditions. Although elderly blacks and whites generally have similar configurations of profiles, there are important differences, especially when chronic conditions are related to specific types of functional impairments. Questions about and claims for black/white mortality crossovers at older ages, usually addressed with aggregate data, are examined conditional on GOM scores that correspond to diverse combinations of disabilities (or lack thereof) together with housing characteristics of cohort members (e.g., whether they live in public housing for the elderly or in owned or rented housing in the community).
Relating Changes in Life Expectancy to Changes in Mortality
Authors: Alho Juha M.
Published: March 2007

I address the problem of what can be said of changes in mortality rates, if one knows how life expectancies change. I note a general formula relating life expectancies in different ages to mortality and prove that if mortality changes over time following a proportional-hazard model, then there is a one-to-one correspondence between life expectancy at birth and mortality rates. Extensions and an application of these results to the analysis of mortality change are presented.
A Flexible Approach for the Decomposition of Rate Differences
Authors: Liao Tim Futing
Published: March 2007

Conventional methods of decomposing the difference between two rates, such as Kitagawa’s classic component analysis, are confined to taking the average of compositional differences. I propose a more general modeling approach involving three steps: (1) A system of equations with the various additive components of the rate difference is set up; (2) unknowns (refined rate differences) are estimated with Clogg’s purging method; (3) the components are calculated. I use an example of U.S. mortality data to compare the proposed method with the conventional ones. The method can be generalized to decompositions for multiple groups and for multiple confounding factors. Kitagawa's method is a special case of this general approach.
Individual-level sterility: A new method of estimation with application to sub-saharan Africa
Authors: Larsen Ulla , Menken Jane
Published: March 2007

This paper extends work on measures of population proportions sterile to propose a new estimator of an individual woman’s age at sterility and consequently her sterility status at given ages. Accuracy and reliability, examined in a simulation study, appear satisfactory. From World Fertility Survey data for five African countries, the proportions sterile by age estimated by the individual measure and by the population estimator are almost identical. Cameroon and Kenya show substantial variation in prevalence and incidence of sterility across ethnic groups and by number of marriages. Unexpectedly, the evidence suggests that sterility increased from 1960 on in Kenya and remained unchanged in Cameroon.
Temporary Migrants in Shanghai Households, 1984
Authors: Goldstein Alice , Goldstein Sidney , Guo Shenyang
Published: March 2007

In China, temporary migration is defined as a change in place of residence without a concomitant change in household registration; such mobility therefore encompasses a more heterogeneous set of movements than is usually subsumed under this heading in other nations. Because of China’s strict control of permanent migration to large cities, temporary migration has become an important strategy for adjusting to economic changes and to effecting family reunification. The Shanghai Temporary Migration Survey of 1984 focused on one segment of temporary migrants, the 58% living in the households of permanent residents. Multinomial logistic regression suggests the heightened probability that close relatives of the household heads come to Shanghai to visit or to live, and nonrelatives to work. Regression on current and expected duration shows that many intended to stay for a year or more, some for up to 20 years. Their presence in the city places added strains on infrastructure and raises questions about the continued efficacy of China’s migration policies.
The Effect of Age Misreporting in China on the Calculation of Mortality Rates at Very High Ages
Authors: Coale Ansley J. , Li Shaomin
Published: March 2007

When mortality rates by age are calculated from recorded deaths and enumerated populations, rates at higher ages are typically in error because of misstated ages. Mortality rates for China in 1981 have been calculated from the number of deaths in 1981 in each household recorded in the 1982 census, and from the census population back-projected one year. Because age was determined from date of birth, and because persons of the Chinese culture have very precise knowledge of date of birth, the mortality rates even at high ages should be unusually accurate. This expectation is fulfilled for most of China, but severe misreporting of age is found in a province that contains a large minority of a non-Han nationality, which lacks precise knowledge of date of birth. Although the province contains only 1.3% of China’s population, male death rates above age 90 for all of China are distorted seriously by the erroneous data from this location.
Structural Change and the Aggregate Poverty Rate
Authors: Williams Donald R.
Published: March 2007

This paper measures the extent to whichrecent increasesin the aggregate povertyrate are attributable to the changing distribution of employment across industries. We decompose the total poverty rate change over the 1976-1983 period into components attributable to changesin employment sharesand changes in the incidence of poverty within industries. Our results show that the poverty rate increase resulted primarily fromthe decline in employment rates in general and from increases in the incidence of poverty within all industries, rather than from the shift of employment opportunities between sectors. The growth of service sector employment in particular has not contributed to the increased incidence of poverty in the United States.
Cohort parity analysis: Statistical estimates of the extent of fertility control
Authors: David Paul A. , Mroz Thomas A. , Sanderson Warren C. , Wachter Kenneth W. , Weir David R.
Published: March 2007

Cohort parity analysis (CPA) is a method for indirect measurement of the extent and timing of the adoption of fertility control within marriage. It uses information on the parity distribution of a cohort of women of specified marriage ages and durations. A multinomial model of parity provides a convenient framework for the computation of distributional parameters describing the extent to which marital fertility control has been accepted and characterizing the way control has been used within specific durations of marriage. This leads to a pair of easily implemented formulas for upperand lower-bound estimates of the expected proportion of the population ever controlling and the distribution of controllers by parity. The power of CPA is illustrated, using census data for currently married couples in Dublin, Belfast, and other county boroughs of Ireland in 1911.
National estimates of teenage sexual activity: Evaluating the comparability of three national surveys
Authors: Kahn Joan R. , Kalsbeek William D. , Hofferth Sandra L.
Published: March 2007

In this article, we examine the reliability with which teenage sexual activity was reported in three recent national surveys. Unlike other study-effects analyses of objective demographic phenomena such as births and marriages, ours focuses on a more sensitive question—age at first intercourse as reported in three very different surveys. Specifically, we compare reports for the 1959–1963 cohort in the 1979 Kantner-Zelnik Study of Young Women, the 1982 National Survey of Family Growth, and the 1983 wave of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. For the ages when the majority of teens become sexually active (16–19), the three surveys provide comparable estimates of early sexual activity. For the younger teen ages, however, there is some disagreement among the estimates. Nevertheless, all three studies produce consistent estimates of the determinants of sexual activity throughout the teen years.
The demographic context of recent change in the structure of American households
Authors: Santi Lawrence L.
Published: March 2007

This article examines recent changes in the structure of American households within the context of broad population changes. Decreases in married-couple households and increases in single-parent households are almost entirely due to the changing patterns of marriage, divorce, fertility, and child custody; headship rates for families have remained relatively stable. Increases in single-person and other nonfamily households are due to increases in the size of the unmarried, childless population and to the aging of this population. Increasing propensities to live alone or with nonrelatives were observed between 1970and 1980,but these behavioral changes have abated during the early 1980s.
Historical changes in the household division of labor
Authors: Gershuny Jonathan , Robinson John P.
Published: March 2007

A number of studies published in the 1970s asserted that the amount of time women spend doing housework shows no historical decline. This article draws on evidence from time-budget surveys—three from the United States (1965, 1975, and 1985) and three from the United Kingdom (1961, 1974, and 1984)—to investigate the evolution of housework time for men and women over the last three decades. Clearly much other than housework has changed over this period. More women have paid jobs, more men are unemployed, and families have gotten smaller on average. Even having controlled for such sociodemographic changes, we conclude that in the two countries, women in the 1980s do substantially less housework than those in equivalent circumstances in the 1960s, and that men do a little more than they did (although still much less than women). These changes correspond closely to developments in four other countries (Canada, Holland, Denmark, and Norway) for which historical time-budget evidence is available.
Union patterns and children’s living arrangements in Latin America
Authors: Richter Kerry
Published: March 2007

This article analyzes how union patterns in Mexico and Colombia affect the lives of children. The proportion of children affected by a disruption by the age of 15 is estimated by using life table methods. The factors that contribute to a child’s risk of experiencing a disruption are investigated by using proportional hazard models. Finally, the living arrangements of children by the mother’s marital status, the urban status, and the mother’s educational attainment are explored. The findings indicate that about one-fifth of Mexican children and one-third of Colombian children spend some time with an unmarried mother by the age of 15. In addition, those who experience a disruption or are born outside of a union spend a considerable length of time in the single-parent state. Most children of an unmarried mother live in an extended-family household, often with a grandparent.
Determinants of temporal and areal variation in infant mortality in Germany, 1871–1933
Authors: Kintner Hallie J.
Published: March 2007

This article investigates how sociodemographic, economic, medical, and public health factors influence infant mortality by using data about German administrative areas from 1871 to 1933. Marital fertility has the largest impact on infant mortality, followed by illegitimacy, medical care, urbanization, and infant welfare centers. The variables considered here account for most of the variation in infant mortality. Some of the unexplained variance is due to factors associated with regions, such as breastfeeding patterns, and with time periods, such as national health insurance. The analyses found no evidence that advances in medical technology affected infant mortality or that the influence of economic development changed over time.
Migration distances: An international comparison
Authors: Long Larry , Tucker C. Jack , Urton William L.
Published: March 2007

Comparing the level or amount of migration within different countries has been a longstanding problem because the local administrative areas commonly used as the basis for measuring migration vary greatly in size and significance within and between countries. Distance moved is a critical aspect of most concepts of migration, and measuring it would facilitate cross-national comparisons. Apparently only the United States, Great Britain, and Sweden have measured migration distances for the country as a whole, and this information is used as the basis for comparative analysis of spatial mobility.
Is neighborhood racial succession place-specific?
Authors: Lee Barrett A. , Wood Peter B.
Published: March 2007

This paper evaluates the geographic generality of the succession model of neighborhood racial change for the period 1970 to 1980. Using census data on racially mixed tracts, we determine whether white-to-black compositional shifts were equally common across the four regions and 58 central cities in our sample. Substantial variation occurred by region in the incidence and magnitude of racial succession; tracts in western cities departed most markedly from expectations. Even in other regions, some cities experienced more numerous instances of stability and displacement than of succession. These region and city effects persist when neighborhood characteristics believed to influence racial transition are controlled.
Increasing contraceptive use in Bangladesh: The role of demand and supply factors
Authors: DeGraff Deborah S.
Published: March 2007

This article analyzes the determinants of contraceptive use in Bangladesh, focusing on the roles of demand for additional children and of family planning service supply. Data from the Matlab Family Planning Health Services Project are used to examine the contributions of these factors to the difference in prevalence of modern contraceptive use between the project area and a control area served by the government family planning and health programs. Results of multivariate analysis deriving from the Easterlin synthesis framework show the importance of family planning supply factors in reducing psychic and resource costs of fertility regulation and in activating latent demand for contraception. Demand for birth limiting and for birth spacing emerge as important explanatory factors; demand for birth spacing is greater in the project area, and both demand measures exert a stronger effect on contraceptive behavior in that area.
Pregnancy avoidance and coital behavior
Authors: Tsui Amy O. , de Silva S. Victor , Marinshaw Ruth
Published: March 2007

This study proposes a behavioral model that identifies determinants of coital activity in the context of pregnancy avoidance and assesses the relationships using weekly panel data collected on 300 rural married women in Sri Lanka in 1988. We discuss the utility of the design, which is similar to that of an epidemiological surveillance system, for the measurement of coital behavior and pregnancy risk perceptions. Perceptions of pregnancy risk, spousal agreement on sexual relations, menstrual and lactational status, and cycle timing, all measured daily, are found to influence significantly the probability of coitus on that day. The findings suggest that substantial gains in studying fertility regulation are likely from closer investigation of the behavioral connections between motivation for pregnancy avoidance and coital incidence. Comparison of such panel data with those of cross-sectional sample surveys also provides insights into the validity of measures of coital and contraceptive behavior.
Momentum and the growth-free segment of a population
Authors: Kim Young J. , Schoen Robert , Sarma P. Sankara
Published: March 2007

In the scenario of a sudden drop in fertility to replacement level, Preston (1986) argued that the population segment under age T, the length of generation, remained growth-free. Here we first present a new relationship for the momentum of any observed population as the ratio of 1) the proportion of the observed population under the mean age at childbearing to 2) the proportion of its life table population under that mean age. We then use that relationship to demonstrate Preston’s approximation. Growth factors for other population segments are also presented. When the initial population is stable, momentum can be approximated as a function of the net reproduction rate alone.
Using surname data in U.S. Puerto Rican mortality analysis
Authors: Rosenwaike Ira , Hempstead Katherine , Rogers Richard G.
Published: March 2007

Evidence suggests that among mainland-born decedents, Hispanic (particularly Puerto Rican) origin may have been underreported in states that have added an ancestry item to their death certificates. This study uses the 1980 Census Bureau Spanish-surname list to code surnames on New York City death certificates. By examining the correspondence between surname type and the response to the ancestry item, we identify potential underreporting of Hispanic ethnicity for Spanish-surnamed decedents. A surname-based method then is used to adjust mortality data for mainland-born Puerto Rican decedents.
African-American marriage in 1910: Beneath the surface of census data
Authors: Preston Samuel H. , Lim Suet , Morgan S. Philip
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the quality of information about marital status, marital duration, and marriage order among African-American women in the U.S. Census of 1910. It compares the reported prevalence of widowhood to estimates of widowhood based on the mortality of black men and on the ages of women at first marriage. It also compares the reported distributions of duration of first marriage to estimates based on mortality and on age at first marriage. It concludes that census reports are subject to serious error. Widowhood is overreported, and marital turnover appears to have been faster than implied by census reports. The prevelance of “own children” is used to confirm these conclusions and to suggest motivations for misreporting.
Heterogeneity and selection in multistate population analysis
Authors: Rogers Andrei
Published: March 2007

If one subgroup of individuals in a population has a higher death rate than the others, then over time the surviving population will include a larger share of those with the lower death rate, As a result, the aggregate average death rate for this increasingly more robust population will decline. This conclusion, however, can be drawn only for nonrecurrent events experienced by populations that do not exchange members with one another—that is, for noninteracting populations. Studies of changes in marital status, labor force activity, residential location, and active life, for example, all should focus on patterns of recurrent events among interacting populations (that is, multistate populations). Selection arising from heterogeneity will occur, but the consequences for average measures become unpredictable a priori. This paper explores such aspects of the selection effects of heterogeneity in multistate populations and illuminates some of their consequences for commonly used rates.
Diversity in experiences of parental structure during childhood and adolescence
Authors: Wojtkiewicz Roger A.
Published: March 2007

The proportion of children living in parental structures other than mother/father has increased in recent decades because of increased separation/divorce and greater prevalence of nonmarital childbearing. This study uses the National Survey of Families and, Households to examine the parental structure experiences of children who had ever lived in nonintact families. The results show considerable variation in experiences among such children. The analysis illustrates the diversity by considering parental structure experiences given I) mother-only family at birth, 2) mother/father family at birth and later parental marital disruption, and 3) parental structure at age 15.
A method for calculating rates of induced abortion
Authors: Foreit Karen G. , Nortman Dorothy L.
Published: March 2007

Accurate measurement of induced abortion is necessary for understanding the fertility dynamics of a population and for making projections about the future. Changes in abortion rates can amplify or dampen the impact of changes in contraception. This paper presents a methodology for calculating marital induced abortion rates from observed marital fertility and contraceptive prevalence and for modeling the impact of substituting contraception for abortion on future fertility. The methodology is validated against observed abortion complications in three populations, and the impact of substituting contraception for abortion on expected fertility is demonstrated.
Work and Retirement Among a Cohort of Older Men in the United States, 1966–1983
Authors: Hayward Mark D. , Grady William R.
Published: March 2007

Multivariate increment-decrement working life tables are estimated for a cohort of older men in the United States for the period 1966–1983. The approach taken allows multiple processes to be simultaneously incorporated into a single model, resulting in a more realistic portrayal of a cohort’s late-life labor force behavior. In addition, because the life table model is developed from multivariate hazard equations, we identify the effects of sociodemographic characteristics on the potentially complex process by which the labor force career is ended. In contrast to the assumed homogeneity of previous working life table analyses, the present study shows marked differences in labor force mobility and working and nonworking life expectancy according to occupation, class of worker, education, race, and marital status. We briefly discuss the implications of these findings for inequities of access to retirement, private and public pension consumption, and future changes in the retirement process.
Demographic Seasonality and Development: The Effects of Agricultural Colonialism in Taiwan, 1906–1942
Authors: Anderton Douglas L. , Barrett Richard E.
Published: March 2007

Nearly all developed countries have experienced dramatic declines in the seasonality of demographic behavior over the last century. This article examines seasonal behavior in the population of Taiwan between 1906 and 1942, during Japanese colonial rule. First, we analyze seasonal demographic cycles and their ties to the cultural calendar and agriculture. Second, we compare seasonality in two regions (Xinzhu and Tainan) that experienced different agricultural development under the colonial regime. Findings demonstrate that demographic seasonality was less pronounced when urban development and colonial agricultural intensification produced more heterogeneous seasonal patterns of labor. We find that changes in agricultural organization, rather than purely a shift to nonagricultural production, may significantly reduce established seasonal timing of demographic behavior.
The Effect of Marital Disruption on Children’s Health
Authors: Mauldon Jane
Published: March 2007

This study uses retrospective illness histories to investigate whether children’s health deteriorates after parental separation. Separation is associated with illness in a multivariate cross-sectional analysis as well as in an analysis of a sample of disrupted children only, in which illness rates before and after separation are compared. Three explanations are hypothesized: (1) divorce reduces the resources available to children, (2) the stress of divorce depletes children’s health, and (3) frailer children are selected into divorce. The first hypothesis has stronger support than the second, but the data are too poor for a rigorous test of either. The selection hypothesis is not supported.
Remarriage Patterns of Black and White Women: Reassessing the Role of Educational Attainment
Authors: Smock Pamela J.
Published: March 2007

Using data from the National Survey of Families and Households, this article illustrates the role of educational attainment in the remarriage patterns of black and white women. For whites, remarriage propensities do not differ significantly by schooling level. For blacks, on the other hand, remarriage and education are positively associated, net of the effects of other variables such as age at separation and the number of children. Very few black high school dropouts in the sample had remarried 10 years after separation. The results suggest that for blacks, those with the worst socioeconomic prospects are least likely to remarry.
The determinants of effective fecundability based on the first birth interval
Authors: Kallan Jeffrey , Udry J. Richard
Published: March 2007

There are substantial differences in fecundability among nine developing countries in different parts of the world. In addition, within countries, later age at marriage has a clear, positive, nonlinear effect on fecundability. Women with higher education and those with more educated husbands have higher fecundability. Urban residents have higher fecundability than rural. The higher fecundability of more recent cohorts is the most consistent observation. Since those variables most frequently shown to have inverse relationships to fertility show direct relationships to fecundability within populations, the role offecundability as a proximate variable in models of the determinants of fertility requires further specification.
An economic model of teenage pregnancy decision-making
Authors: Leibowitz Arleen , Eisen Marvin , Chow Winston K.
Published: March 2007

In this paper, we model unmarried teenagers’ decisions about their pregnancy outcome by considering that the teenager contrasts her expected utility (1) as a married mother, (2) as an unmarried mother, or (3) after abortion. We use crosssectional data on 297 California teenagers aged 13-19 who were pregnant for the first time between 1972 and 1974. Both Anglo and Mexican-American girls are included. We find that pregnant girls who are eligible for or are receiving public assistance are more likely to give birth and remain unmarried. Teenagers with greater time values are more likely to choose abortion, and Mexican-American girls are more likely to carry their pregnancies to term.
The decline in occupational sex segregation during the 19705: census and CPS comparisons
Authors: Bianchi Suzanne M. , Rytina Nancy
Published: March 2007

An assessment of changes in occupational sex segregation during the 1970s, as measured by the Census and Current Population Survey, is complicated by the recent reclassification of occupations. Once this is taken into account, it is apparent from both the Census and the CPS that there was a decline in occupational sex segregation in the 1970s and that the decline was probably more substantial than in the 1960s.
Mortality by nativity
Authors: Kestenbaum Bert
Published: March 2007

This note reports the reversal of the mortality-nativity relationship in the United States. In the first half of the twentieth century, mortality among foreign-born Americans was greater than among (white) native Americans. Data for 1980 show that now mortality among the foreign-born is markedly lower than among native Americans.
Accounting for migration in cohort-component projections of state and local populations
Authors: Smith Stanley K.
Published: March 2007

Migration is the most difficult component of state and local population growth to forecast accurately because it is more volatile than either births or deaths, and subject to much larger fluctuations within a short period of time. In addition, migration rates can be based on several different measures of migration and the base population. The choice of the appropriate base population has received little attention from demographic researchers, but can have a tremendous impact on population projections. In this article, I develop three different models for projecting migration, each using a different denominator for migration rates. Population projections for ten states are made, using identical data and cohort component techniques, except for the different formulations of migration rates. Differences among the three sets of projections are noted, and conclusions are drawn regarding their usefulness as forecasts of population growth.
Religion and fertility in the United States: The importance of marriage patterns and hispanic origin
Authors: Mosher William D. , Johnson David P. , Horn Marjorie C.
Published: March 2007

The marital fertility of white Catholic wives in the United States was higher than that of non-Catholic wives in 1977–1981, but when Hispanics were excluded, the differential disappeared; therefore, the Catholic-non-Catholic differential in recent years was due entirely to the higher fertility of Hispanic Catholics. The Total Fertility Rates (TFR) of Catholics were slightly lower in 1977–1981 than those for white Protestants, primarily because Catholic women tend to marry later than Protestant women. This finding was confirmed by multivariate analysis of data on children ever born. We examine some additional data and various theories to speculate on whether these patterns will last.
Statistics and politics: The “hispanic issue” in the 1980 census
Authors: Choldin Harvey M.
Published: March 2007

Based upon documents and interviews, this paper presents an analytical history of interactions between the United States Bureau of the Census and Mexican-American leaders preparatory to the 1980 census. Participants confronted several issues, such as defining Hispanic ethnicity, designing instruments and field procedures, and maximizing public participation. Although census officials and ethnic leaders aimed at getting a “full count,” the former emphasized scientific objectives while the latter emphasized the political.
Examination of the generalized age distribution
Authors: Kim Young J.
Published: March 2007

The generalized age distribution for any population in continuous time obtained by Bennett and Horiuchi (1981) and Preston and Coale (1982) is derived in the discrete time formulation in the first part of this paper. Other expressions that follow from the age distribution in Preston-Coale are also presented in discrete time and age. Then the Preston-Coale procedure of using these expressions to estimate mortality when demographic data are defective is critically examined. It is noted that the series of age-specific growth rates, the essential feature of the new expressions, reflects defective census age distributions exactly so that a demographic measure estimated by the Preston-Coale procedure is still affected by the defective data.
The Biodemography of Variation in Human Frailty
Authors: Weiss Kenneth M.
Published: March 2007

A population is composed of individuals who are heterogeneous in their susceptibility to death and disease. This heterogeneity is reflected in the age-specific incidence or mortality (hazard) function. This variation has typically been hidden—that is, not measured directly—and has generally been modeled in a purely empirical statistical way, because there is no theory in demography for the distribution of frailty. A substantial fraction of variation in frailty, however, has an underlying genetic basis, for which there is a formal theory. This theory, based on evolutionary biology and on the nature of mendelian transmission, provides prior constraints on the distribution of variation in the population as well as providing methods for identifying genes involved in many important diseases. The accumulating effects of environmental exposures with age are another major component of variation in frailty. In some important instances, this variation and its effect on the age-specific hazard function can also be understood in terms of cause-specific biological processes. These biological considerations may enable demographers to model frailty, and thus mortality, in a better way.
Estimation of Exposure Time Distributions
Authors: Alho Juha M.
Published: March 2007

In many demographic analyses, such as the assessment of environmental cancer risks, one may be interested not only in the age-by-state distribution of the population but also in the distribution of the population by time spent in a given state. States can represent geographic areas, marital statuses, labor force participation, or states of epidemiologic exposure. Recursive formulas for the calculation of the distribution of the population according to exposure time are derived under time-invariant state transition rates. Although populations can have identical growth rates and identical age-by-state distributions, they can have very different distributions by exposure time. An application to the analysis of carcinogenic exposure states is given, using data from Finland. The effect of population heterogeneity on the estimated exposure time distributions is studied.
Wife or frau, women do worse: A comparison of men and women in the United States and Germany after marital dissolution
Authors: Burkhauser Richard V. , Duncan Greg J. , Hauser Richard , Berntsen Roland
Published: March 2007

Longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the German Socio-Economic Panel show that in the Federal Republic of Germany, women experience even sharper drops in economic status immediately after a marital split than in the United States, while German and American men fare about the same. German social policy does little to reduce the disparities.
A longitudinal analysis of household and nonhousehold living arrangements in later life
Authors: Mutchler Jan E. , Burr Jeffrey A.
Published: March 2007

Most explanatory models of living arrangements in later life link the decision process surrounding choice of living arrangement to personal resources such as income and health. Applications of these models, however, are based for the most part on crosssectional rather than longitudinal data. In this paper we examine living arrangements in later life among the nonmarried population aged 55 and over, using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation. We observe individuals as they change living arrangements, die, or become institutionalized. Our results suggest that economic resources dominate the decision-making process in transitions across different household arrangements, whereas health is most important in explaining institutionalization.
Variations on two themes: Racial and ethnic patterns in the attainment of suburban residence
Authors: Alba Richard D. , Logan John R.
Published: March 2007

To investigate racial and ethnic diversity in suburbanization, we draw on two complementary theoretical traditions, which we label “assimilation” and “stratification.” Our analytic model is multilevel, and includes variables characterizing individuals, households, and metropolitan contexts. We use it to analyze the determinants of suburban versus central-city residence for 11 racial/ethnic groups. The analysis reveals that family status, socioeconomic, and assimilation variables influence the suburbanization process rather consistently. We take this finding as evidence in favor of the assimilation model. These effects display group variations, however, in a manner predicted by the stratification model. There are also suburbanization differences among metropolitan areas, particularly related to the relative economic status of cities and their suburbs, and between the northeast/north central regions and the south/west. Finally, we conclude that suburbanization is variable across the groups in a way that is not captured by broad categories such as “Asian” or “Hispanic.”
Heterogeneity and the implied dynamics of regional growth rates: Was the nonmetropolitan turnaround an artifact of aggregation?
Authors: Kephart George
Published: March 2007

The spatial units of analysis employed in urban and regional research display considerable internal heterogeneity in terms of the social, demographic, and economic variables used to describe them. One implication of this has been overlooked in the literature, namely, that aggregate rates may have an implicit dynamic of change. Differential internal rates modify the composition of the aggregate, changing the relative importance of subareas in determining the aggregate rate. To demonstrate this, methods for decomposing the change in growth rates due to heterogeneity are developed and applied to nonmetropolitan growth rates between 1950 and 1980. Internal heterogeneity was found to be an important, and sometimes even a dominant, component of change. Furthermore, the analysis sheds considerable light on the reasons for the changes in aggregate rates that marked the nonmetropolitan turnaround.
Monitoring the metropolitanization process
Authors: Fuguitt Glenn V. , Heaton Tim B. , Lichter Daniel T.
Published: March 2007

Alternative approaches have led to different interpretations of the metropolitanization process in the United States. We identify and illustrate several methods and procedures for monitoring metropolitan-nonmetropolitan population change using the 1950–1980 U.S. decennial censuses. Two basic approaches are compared: constant area approaches and component methods. In addition, we assess the effects of changing metropolitan definitions on metropolitan-nonmetropolitan growth. The results clearly reveal that the underlying mechanics of metropolitanization not only are complex but have changed substantially during the 1950–1980 period. We conclude with observations regarding the use of these procedures in future research.
Household income and child survival in Egypt
Authors: Casterline John B. , Cooksey Elizabeth C. , Ismail Abdel Fattah E.
Published: March 2007

This article uses household-level economic and fertility survey data to examine the relationship between household income and child survival in Egypt. Income has little effect on infant mortality but is inversely related to mortality in early childhood. The relationship persists with other associated socioeconomic variables controlled. The mechanisms underlying the income effects are not evident from this analysis: income differentials in sources of household drinking water, type of toilet facilities, and maternal demographic characteristics do not explain the net impact of income on child mortality. The absence of effects on child survival of the size of the place of residence and the relatively weak effects of maternal schooling are also notable.
Recent trends in marital disruption
Authors: Martin Teresa Castro , Bumpass Larry L.
Published: March 2007

The post-1980 decline in the crude divorce rate must be interpreted in the context of the long-term trend and in terms of what we know about composition effects on crude measures—particularly given shifts in age at marriage and the age composition effects of the baby boom. Data from the June 1985 Current Population Survey permit more detailed, exposure-specific measurements as well as the use of separation as the event terminating marriage. Estimates from these data suggest a decline followed by a recovery. Taking into account well-known levels of underreporting, we find that recent rates imply that about two-thirds of all first marriages are likely to end in separation or divorce. We examine the persistence of major differences in marital stability and evaluate the comparative stability of first and second marriages.
Components of change in adolescent fertility, 1971–1979
Authors: Nathanson Constance A. , Kim Young J.
Published: March 2007

This article disaggregates change in adolescent fertility between 1971 and 1979 into four components: change in marriage patterns, in nonmarital sex, in pregnancy, and in birth. It also assesses quantitatively the relative contribution of each component to the change over time in two fertility outcomes: the probability of a nonmarital live birth and, given a live birth, the odds of its being nonmarital. The changes in the probability of sexual debut prior to marriage and in marriage patterns themselves are the two most important contributors to these changes. The influence on the change in adolescent fertility outcomes of the decreased likelihood of marriage following a nonmarital pregnancy was compensated for by the increased use of abortion to ter-minate the pregnancy.
The influence of individual and historical time on marital dissolution
Authors: Thornton Arland , Rodgers Willard L.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the influence of individual development and historical change on marital dissolution. Data from the vital statistics system of the United States and from the June 1980Current Population Survey are used to examine the experience of marriage cohorts from 1905 through 1975 and the periods from 1922 through 1979. The historical patterns can best be explained as effects of period rather than of birth or marriage cohort, and the individual patterns can be explained best as effects of age and age at marriage rather than of marital duration.