bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Creating Value in a Retail Business. Evidence From the Russian Food Retail Market
Authors: Vashakmadze Teimuraz , Martirosyan Emil , Sergeeva Anastasia
Published: November 2018

Teimuraz Teimurazovich Vashakmadze - Director of the Master's program, assistant professor of business and management strategy, IBDA RASHiGS under the President of the Russian Federation.Emil G. MartirosyanAnastasia Alexandrovna Sergeeva

In the post crisis years, the Russian food retail market has skyrocketed and run ahead of the market in general. Our research reveals major value drivers and explores the value creation of companies by comparison based on a P/B ratio. The analysis of performance indicators of the three biggest Russian food retailers provides evidence suggests that ROE can explain the difference and positive relationship of a P/B ratio. Our findings suggest that retail companies are increasing ROE through net profit margin improvement. In addition, we found out that a higher Store/DC ratio has a strong correlation to the ROE of a company. The key question of the paper is identifying a combination of factors that drive performance and value creation in post-crisis period in non-consolidated Russian food retail market. Thus, our research is aimed at providing a broader picture of factors that influence value creation in a retail market, such as cross-docking, franchising, recognition of product matrix, management decision decentralization, focusing on core activity and commercial conditions with suppliers. In this article we have explained the business factors that mostly influenced the corporate ROE and the price-per-book value of the company of the Russian food retail industry. After the analysis of three Russian retail chains we have come to the conclusion that the retail business development in Russia (apart from the consumer market factors) mostly depends on efficient management in operations and on having good commercial conditions with suppliers. At the same time there is a direct impact on the retailers’ gross margins from the specific operational solutions like crossdocking implementations.
Взаимосвязь между ликвидностью, финансовым циклом и рентабельностью российских компаний
Authors: Гаранина Татьяна Александровна , Петрова Ольга Евгеньевна
Published: November 2018

Татьяна Александровна Гаранина - Доцент кафедры финансов и учета, Академический директор программ EMBA, Высшая школа менеджмента Санкт-Петербургского государственного университета. Электронная почта: garanina@gsom.spbu.ruОльга Евгеньевна Петрова - Институт «Высшая школа менеджмента» Санкт-Петербургский государственный университет.

В статье проанализирована взаимосвязь показателей ликвидности, финансового цикла и рентабельности компаний на российском рынке. Особую актуальность вопросы управления оборотным капиталом приобретают в контексте мирового финансового кризиса, который поставил перед многими компаниями и даже целыми отраслями проблему выживания. На основе регрессионного анализа 720 российских компаний, принадлежащих к восьми различным отраслям (телекоммуникации, транспорт, электроэнергетика, торговля, металлургия, машиностроение, химия и нефтехимия, нефтегазовая отрасль), за период с 2005 по 2013 г. было выявлено наличие обратной связи между финансовым циклом и рентабельностью предприятий. В ходе исследования посредством специализированной программы STATA 12.0 проводился регрессионный анализ. Результаты исследования приводят к следующим выводам: по всем компаний, за исключением компаний, имеющих отрицательный финансовый цикл, была установлена статистически значимая обратная зависимость между величиной финансового цикла и рентабельностью (выраженной рентабельностью чистых операционных активов); в подвыборке компаний, имеющих отрицательный финансовый цикл, данная зависимость прямая. Этот результат позволил сделать вывод о том, что в целях увеличения рентабельности компании следует стремиться к нулевому значению финансового цикла. По всем подвыборкам компаний была также обнаружена статистически значимая прямая связь между коэффициентом текущей ликвидностикомпании и ее рентабельностью, то есть для увеличения рентабельности российским фирмам следует стремиться увеличивать свои показатели ликвидности, однако до определенной величины. В работе выявлено, что основным ограничением роста рентабельности активов организации выступает необходимость обеспечения требуемого уровня ликвидности и оптимальной для фирмы величины финансового цикла организации.В исследовании рассчитаны рекомендуемые промежутки для коэффициента текущей ликвидности для российской действительности, при превышении которых ликвидность и рентабельность чистых операционных активов будут находиться в обратной зависимости.
Использование различных мер эффективности участниками финансового рынка
Authors: Шишкина Наталья Евгениевна , Лапшин Владимир Владимирович
Published: November 2018

Наталья Евгениевна Шишкина - - Национальный Исследовательский Университет "Высшая Школа Экономики". Электронная почта: shishkina.n@gmail.comВладимир Владимирович Лапшин - - Национальный Исследовательский Университет "Высшая Школа Экономики". Электронная почта: lapshin.v@gmail.com

Для оценки риска, определения эффективности  существует огромное количество мер, но порой достаточно трудно определить, какая или какие из них могут быть наиболее полезны для конкретной задачи. Для этого необходимо понимать, какая существует взаимосвязь между мерами, какие у них общие достоинства и недостатки, какие  сильные и слабые стороны имеет каждый показатель эффективности/риска.В данной статье рассмотрены достоинства, недостатки, свойства и области применимости  40 мер эффективности и риска, предложен подход к классификации мер, построена схема взаимосвязи между ними (указано, какие из мер являются модификацией других мер, какие – частным случаем, а какие – используются при расчете другими показателями эффективности). Проанализировано, какие отрицательные последствия может иметь изменение мер, связанное с использованием асимметрии, эксцесса и/или моментов более высокого порядка. Исследовано, как модификация/обобщение меры  влияет на ее достоинства и недостатки.Проанализировано, к каким  новым недостаткам, которые отсутствуют у основной меры, может приводить ее модификация, направленная на избавление родительской меры от некоторых недостатков. Рассмотрено, какие достоинства, которые есть у частных мер, могут терять  обобщающие их показатели эффективности, имеющие более широкую область применимости. Предложен подход использования этих данных для достаточно быстрого принятия  решения различными участниками финансового рынка (трейдерами, инвесторами и/или управляющими) о том, какую меру или комплекс мер следует использовать для решения необходимой задачи.
Учет социальных рисков для оценки бизнеса в рамках управления, нацеленного на создание стоимости
Authors: Коваленко Александр Александрович , Паршиков Дмитрий Михайлович
Published: November 2018

Александр Александрович Коваленко - Индивидуальный предприниматель. Электронная почта: akovalenko777@mail.ruДмитрий Михайлович Паршиков - ЗАО «2К Аудит – Деловые консультации». Старший методолог Отдела методологии и контроля качества Департамента оценки, экспертизы и стоимостного консультирования. Электронная почта: homme65@inbox.ru

Статья посвящена развитию методологии оценки рисков. В частности, речь идет об оценке социальных рисков в рамках управления, нацеленного на создание стоимости (VBM – Value Based Management). В настоящем исследовании предлагается технология оценки социальных рисков и их учета при расчете ставки дисконтирования методом кумулятивного построения. Считаем, что выделенные социальные риски значительно влияют на будущее состояние организации – ее потенциал и поэтому обязательно должны учитываться в расчетных финансовых показателях. Предложенный метод как раз позволяет связать нефинансовый показатель – значение социальных рисков, которое производится методом экспертных оценок, с финансовыми показателями через заложенный в ставке дисконтирования процент. Стоимостная оценка может быть использована как один из показателей эффективности и может позволить достигать более ясных и точных целей для организации.Все устремления, аналитические методы и приемы менеджмента должны быть направлены на одну общую цель: максимизацию стоимости для всех стейкхолдеров при построении процесса принятия управленческих решений на основе анализа ключевых факторов, а наша задача заключается в правильном выявлении этих ключевыхфакторов, влияющих на стоимость, и их правильной оценке.Стоимость может быть использована как один из показателей эффективности и может позволить достигать более ясных и точных целей, поскольку требование любого участника может поддаваться стоимостной оценке.Одним из основных преимуществ стоимостного подхода к управлению является то, что этот подход впервые позволяет ликвидировать огромную пропасть между финансовыми и нефинансовыми показателями в сочетании с социально ориентированным подходом. Это становится возможным благодаря выявлению и тщательному структурированию системы ключевых факторов стоимости, с помощью которых и строится механизм управление организацией. Предлагаемый подход может быть использован при оценке различных проектов, при обосновании ставки дисконтирования, применяемой в расчетах финансовых показателей в компании.
Research and Development and Firm Risk
Authors: Von Eije J. H. (Henk) , Suurmeijer Matthijs , Smid Peter
Published: November 2018

J. H. (Henk) von Eije - University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business. E-mail: j.h.von.eije@rug.nl

Matthijs Suurmeijer - University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business. Email: matthijs.suurmeijer@gmail.com

Peter Smid - Dr, University of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business. E-mail: p.p.m.smid@eco.rug.nl

Spending on R&D has grown faster than other investments. This may result in higher return and higher risk. We focus on the latter and examine how research and development (R&D) affects the risks of US firms. We analyze the impact on the firm’s beta, its systematic and idiosyncratic risk, and the combination of the latter two (total risk). Because investors prefer upside to downside risk, we also analyze whether downside risk is also influenced by R&D. We use panel and quantile regressions and control for dividend payouts, growth, leverage, asset liquidity, firm size, earnings variability, firm age and industry competition. We then show that the impact is positive and highly significant for beta, systematic risk and total risk. The impact on systematic risk contrasts to the finding by McAlister et al. (2007) who find that R&D insulates firms from market downturns and thereby lowers systematic risk. The increases in risks are, moreover, stronger at higher relative levels of R&D spending. Unfortunately for investors, downside risk is also increasing with relative R&D spending. The results may make it also more difficult for managers to defend R&D investments. R&D may indeed generate future returns, but also adds to the next year’s risk. The impact on systematic risk contrasts to the finding by McAlister et al. [2007] that R&D insulates firms from market downturns and thereby lowers systematic risk. While the magnitudes of the effects are small, the impact is relevant when compared with other accounting variables included in the model, especially for beta and systematic risk. Apart from this, there are strong indications that the hypothesized relationis non-linear.
Эффективность фондов прямых инвестиций на развивающихся рынках
Authors: Гусамов Степан Александрович , Родионов Иван Иванович
Published: November 2018

Степан Александрович Гусамов - Национальный Исследовательский Университет "Высшая школа экономики".
Электронная почта: iastepanov@hse.ru
Иван Иванович Родионов - Национальный Исследовательский Университет "Высшая школа экономики".
Электронная почта: irodionov@hse.ru
Из-за отсутствия данных о денежных потоках, оценить эффективность ФПИ для развивающихся рынков капитала представляется более сложной задачей, чем для развитых, так как использование традиционных показателей доходности TVPI и IRR невозможно.В данном исследовании был предложен подход, предполагающий применение скорректированных показателей доходности для ФПИ, который может быть реализован без использования данных о денежных потоках и чистых активов фондов. Предложенные показатели могут быть рассчитаны на основе имеющихся в публичном доступе данных о портфельных сделках фондов.В исследовании была представлена методология анализа эффективности ФПИ на основе портфельных сделок, а также проведен анализ эмпирических данных на выборке из 1957 сделок стран BRIC в период с 2000 по 2012.Результаты эмпирического анализа в целом подтверждают ряд фундаментальных характеристик ФПИ, ранее выявленных для развитых рынков капитала таких как:1.     Сделки ФПИ в развивающихся странах являются более рисковыми активами, чем традиционные инструменты.2.     Доходность у большинства сделок ниже доходности фондового рынка, однако, наиболее успешные существенно опережают рынок.3.     Инвестиции фондов выкупа имеют коэффициент β меньше единицы, что говорит о малой подверженности системному риску.Некоторые характеристики нашли подтверждение только частично:1.     Инвестиции венчурных фондов имеют коэффициент β больше единицы для рынков Бразилии и Индии, и меньше единицы для России и Китая.2.     Доходность инвестиций BO фондов выше доходности VC фондов в России и Китае. В Индии и Бразилии – результат обратный.Оставшаяся часть характеристик принципиально отличается от выявленных на развитых рынках капитала:1.     Период владения инвестициями для ФПИ развивающихся стран меньше, чем для развитых стран и в среднем составляет 3,3 года.
Оценка технической эффективности компаний оборонно-промышленного комплекса
Authors: Федорова Елена Анатольевна , Мазалов Евгений Сергеевич , Ткаченко Анастасия Андреевна , Фёдоров Фёдор Юрьевич
Published: November 2018

Елена Анатольевна Федорова - Финансовый унивеситет при Правительстве Российской Федерации.
Электронная почта: ecolena@mail.ru
Евгений Сергеевич Мазалов - Федеральное государственное образовательное бюджетное учреждение высшего профессионального образования «Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации».
Электронная почта: e.mazalov@yahoo.com
Анастасия Андреевна Ткаченко - Федеральное государственное образовательное бюджетное учреждение высшего профессионального образования «Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации».
Электронная почта: anastasia270791@yandex.ru
 Фёдор Юрьевич Фёдоров - Национальный Исследовательский Университет "Высшая Школа Экономики".
 В данном исследовании оценивается операционная (по рентабельности) и техническая эффективность предприятий оборонно-промышленного комплекса. Оборонно-промышленный комплекс всегда занимал особое место в народнохозяйственной  системе страны, оказывая прямое влияние на национальную безопасность государства, а также на экономическое развитие, внешнеполитическую ситуацию и темпы научно-технического прогресса. Политика государства выступает главным фактором, оказывающим воздействие на развитие оборонной промышленности России в условиях мирного времени. Однако вопросы, связанные с оценкой эффективности компаний оборонно-промышленного комплекса, также являются актуальными. В связи с тем что стандартные показатели операционной эффективности (показатели прибыли и рентабельности) могут не учитывать ориентацию предприятий на внешние контракты и заинтересованность государства, стоит рассмотреть показатель технической эффективности.  Эмпирическая база включает финансовые и экономические показатели 1425 предприятий ОПК, метод исследования - непараметрический метод DEA (Data Envelopment analysis). На основе проведенного анализа было выявлено: 1) нельзя оценивать эффективность работы компании ОПК, основываясь только на технической эффективности. Предприятие может иметь невысокую рентабельность, но при этом, в силу производственной специфики, работать более эффективно. 2) предприятия ОПК  с высокой долей гос. участия (85-100%)  работают более эффективно, в связи с модернизацией основных производственных фондов и увеличением контрактной базы за счет государственных программ. 3) Предприятия, имеющие контрактную базу свыше 500 млн. руб., имеют более высокую рентабельность (5,1%), чем предприятия  с контрактной базой менее 500 млн. руб. (-104%). 4) санкций, введенные странами запада в отношении российских предприятий ОПК, не смогли в значительной мере повлиять на техническую эффективность предприятий в 2014 году.
Выбор структуры капитала компаниями на развивающихся рынках с учетом бизнес-циклов экономики
Authors: Кокорева Мария Сергеевна , Никифоров Михаил Сергеевич
Published: November 2018

Кокорева Мария Сергеевна - доцент, преподаватель, НИУ ВШЭ, заместитель руководителя школы финансов, научный сотрудник научно-учебной лабаратории корпоративных финансов, директор совместной образовательной программы подготовки бакалавров по направлению "Экономика" УрГУ и НИУ ВШЭ.
Электронная почта: maria_kokoreva@mail.ru
Михаил Сергеевич Никифоров - Национальный Исследовательский Университет "Высшая Школа Экономики".
Электронная почта: nikiforov.ms@gmail.com
Выбор оптимального соотношения между собственными и заемными источниками финансирования является одним из важнейших финансово-управленческих решений компании. Изучению данной проблематики посвящено большое количество теоретических и эмпирических исследований как на развитых, так и на развивающихся финансовых рынках. В условиях современных кризисных явлений вопрос о влиянии макроэкономических условий на выбор структуры капитала, получил новое развитие. Вклад данной работы в исследования структуры капитала на развивающихся финансовых рынках обусловлен в первую очередь недостатком аналогичных исследований, анализирующих процесс формирования структуры капитала компаний в различных макроэкономических условиях. Связано это со спецификой функционирования фирм на развивающихся рынках, которая требует внесения модификаций в обычные модели, а также с недостаточным объемом доступной информации по компаниям до недавнего времени. В данной статье представлены результаты исследования структуры капитала компаний, функционирующих на развивающихся рынках капитала, с учетом бизнес-циклов экономики. Проведенное исследование на данных 581 компаний из стран БРИКС за 2002–2014 гг. позволило установить, что целевая структура капитала создается под воздействием одного набора факторов как в периоды экономического роста, так и в периоды спада. Скорость приспособления к целевой структуре капитала при этом зависит от стадии бизнес-цикла экономики: в период экономического роста скорость приспособления выше.  В ходе исследования также выявлено, что направление влияния детерминант скорости приспособления меняется в зависимости от состояния экономики (отклонение от целевого показателя структуры капитала приводит к росту скорости приспособления в периоды подъема и к падению – в периоды экономического спада).
Possible Prognostic Function of MALAT1 in Cancer Patients: A Meta-Analysis v1
Authors: Wang Chengdi , Cheng Junxin , Ji Xiao , Li Ya , Zhang Wen , Yan Yushun , Zhu Yizhang , Wei Linfei , Huang Keer , He Xiaomin , Sui Hao
Published: November 2018

Background: With incidence of all types of cancers on the rise, cancer is now the leading cause of death worldwide. Previous studies have stressed the significant role of long non-coding RNAs (lncRNAs) in the diagnostic efficacy of cancer, onset and development. Method: A meta-analysis was implemented aiming to explore whether lncRNA, Metastasis-associated lung adenocarcinoma transcript 1 (MALAT-1), can work as a promising biomarker for prognosis in human cancers. Eligible articles were collected from multiple online databases (Pubmed, EMBASE, CNKI, Web of Science and Google Scholar) and meta-analysis was conducted to investigate the association between the expression levels of MALAT-1 and overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS) or recurrence-free survival (RFS) and clinicopathological parameters which may have an impact on the pooled results. A total of 1389 patients from 13 studies were included in our meta-analysis, whose survival analysis was all univariate. Result: The results of our meta-analysis indicated that overexpression of MALAT-1 was significantly correlated with worse OS in cancer patients (HR = 1.941, 95% CI: 1.168-2.715, P<0.001) as well as worse DFS (HR = 2.20, 95% CI: 1.34-3.06, P < 0.001) and worse RFS (HR=1.90, 95% CI: 0.68-3.13, P < 0.001) in cancer patients in general. Due to heterogeneity may present in the overall results, subgroup analyses based on cancer type, cut-off value, patient size and median age were also performed in our study. In subgroups analysis, we found that the HR of group urinary system and group median age < 55 is particularly high compared with group OS (overall data). Conclusion: Tosum up, our meta-analysis results implied that increased expression level of MALAT-1 was positively associated with unfavorable prognostic results in many types of cancer patients. Besides, younger patients and patients with urinary tumors appear to be of poorer prognosis.
Fair Proxy Communication: Using Social Robots to Modify the Mechanisms of Implicit Social Cognition v1
Authors: Seibt Johanna , Vestergaard Christina
Published: November 2018

This article introduces a new communicational format called Fair Proxy Communication (Seibt 2016). Fair Proxy Communication is a specific communicational setting where a teleoperated robot is used to remove perceptual cues of implicit biases in order to increase the perceived fairness of decision-related communications. The envisaged practical applications of Fair Proxy Communication range from assessment communication (e.g., job interviews at Affirmative Action Employers) to conflict mediation, negotiation, and other communication scenarios that require direct dialogue but where decision-making maybe negatively affected by implicit social biases. The theoretical significance of Fair Proxy Communication pertains primarily to the investigation of 'mechanisms' of implicit social cognition in neuropsychology, but this new communicational format also raises many research questions for the fields of organizational psychology, negotiation and conflict research, and business ethics. Fair Proxy Communication is currently investigated by an interdisciplinary research team at Aarhus University, Denmark
Prognostic significance of the evaluation of expression of the gene PCA3 in urine in patients with localized prostate cancer and histomorphological changes in the peritumoral zone
Authors: Bova Philip S.
Published: November 2018

Aim. To determine the prognostic significance PCA3 gene expression in urine sediment and exosomes in patients with localized prostate cancer (PC) and associated histologic changes in the peritumoral zone as a predictor of biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy (RPE).

Materials and methods. Of 148 patients with localized PC, 96 (65%) had high-grade prostatic intraepithelial neoplasia (PIN-2) in the peritumoral zone. The other 52 (35%) had no pathologic tissue of the peritumoral zone. PDA3 expression in urine sediment and exosomes was determined with real-time PCR with respect to the reference gene KLK3.

Results. The PCA3 gene expression level in urine exosomes in patients with PIN-2 in the prostatic peritumoral zone and synchronous pancreatic adenocarcinoma was higher among patients with subsequent disease recurrence. Increased PCA3 gene expression in the urine sediment was also predictive of the risk of recurrence of a prostatic tumor with PIN-2 in the peritumoral zone, although to a lesser degree than the results with urine exosomes. When the ∆Ct РСА3-KLK3 was ≥1,86 in the urine sediment, biochemical recurrence of PC and PIN-2 developed more frequently in the peritumoral zone (84% versus 51%, p = 0,013).

Conclusions. Increased PCA3 gene expression in urine sediment and exosomes is a predictor of increased risk of biochemical recurrence after RPE in patients with localized PC and PIN-2 in the peritumoral zone.
Pathological anatomy of reparative processes in the resected kidney treated with α-tocopherol acetate in experiment
Authors: Shormanov Igor S. , Los Marina S. , Shormanova Natalia S.
Published: November 2018

Violation of the integrity of the kidney parenchyma during organ-preserving surgery is always accompanied by functional impairment in that part of the organ. This is due to mechanical damage to the nephron and the development of aseptic necrosis in the area of the resection, followed by development of an ischemic zone that expands during the repair process due to disrupted parenchymal cell metabolism and pressure from regenerating connective tissue.

Objective. To investigate the effect of α-tocopherol acetate on repair processes in the kidney parenchyma after an organ-preserving operation in a rat model.

Materials and methods. An experimental study was performed on 60 white laboratory rats that underwent resection of the lower pole of the left kidney. Postoperatively, a study group (n = 30) underwent intramuscular injections of a 10% α-tocopherol acetate oil solution, 0.2 ml 2 times a day for 5 days. A control group (n = 30) were left untreated.

Results. Compared with the control group, animals in the study group had a narrower zone of total necrosis and less pronounced inflammation and vascular stasis on days 7, 14, and 28 after the operation.

Conclusion. Use of the natural antioxidant α-tocopherol acetate in the postoperative period of organ-preserving kidney surgery may accelerate reparative processes in the damaged parenchyma.
Immunotherapy of renal cell carcinoma: Current state of the problem and promising areas of research
Authors: Molchanov Oleg E.
Published: November 2018

This review considers current variants of immunotherapy in patients with disseminated renal cell carcinoma. Data from experimental studies concerning defects in immunocompetent cells and mechanisms that block the normal immune response in patients with tumors are presented. Data of completed clinical trials of blockers of co-inhibiting molecules and cytokines in patients with renal cell carcinoma are analyzed.
An overview on oral drug delivery via nano-based formulations
Authors: Mohammadzadeh Ramin , Javadzadeh Yousef
Published: November 2018

Oral drug administration is used for a large number of medications, intended to create a systemic effect in the body. Over the recent years, an increasing attention has been directed by pharmacists toward the development of successful formulations for oral drug delivery. However, this issue is still controversial in pharmaceutical technology with many limitations due to the numerous barriers against the absorption and permeability in the gastrointestinal tract. On the other hand, drug carriers play an important role in providing prolonged release and delivery and overcome the multiple barriers of maintaining appropriate bioavailability. Nano scaling of the particles, carriers, and polymers has also provided the capability to characterize and control materials in order to produce unique pharmaceutical components and structures. Furthermore, personalized healthcare, rational drug design, and site-specific targeted drug delivery are some of the profits gained from a nano-based formulation approach. This review aimed to evaluate the evidence on some different types of nanoscaled drug delivery systems, which allow for the delivery of smallmolecule drugs and facilitate the merging of larger particles, such as nucleic acids, peptides, and proteins. The delivery of these molecules to the exact target areas inside the body can be accomplished, which would decrease systemic adverse effects and allow for more effective application of the pharmaceutical preparations.
Serum vitamin D levels in girls with central precocious puberty
Authors: Rafati Mohammadreza , Zamanfar Daniel , Shiadeh Seyedeh Nesa Rezaeian , Faramarzi Fatemeh , Aarabi Mohsen , Damavandi Hamid Rayati
Published: November 2018

Precocious puberty can cause several adverse effects on final growth and social behavior in girls. Recent studies showed that low serum level of vitamin D might be associated with precocious puberty. The aim of this research was to investigate the association between serum vitamin D level and central precocious puberty in girls. Girls with central precocious puberty under the age of eight were enrolled in the study. Subjects with brain tumor, inherent adrenal hyperplasia, or thyroid dysfunction were excluded from the study. Age, weight, height, serum level of vitamin D, luteinizing hormone (LH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), estradiol, free thyroxin (FT4), bone age, thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH), and Tanner stages were determined for all the subjects. Healthy girls with no precocious puberty were considered as the control group. Finally, 58 girls (28 with central precocious puberty and 30 healthy) were included in the study. The average levels of serum vitamin D were 12.9 ± 7.8 ng/mL and 15.2±5.9 ng/mL in the case and control groups, respectively (P = 0.02). We found that 37% of girls with precocious puberty were in Tanner stage 2 and 63% in stage 3. The serum vitamin D level had considerable relationship with chronologicalbone age difference (P < 0.01). Vitamin D deficiency was more common in girls with central precocious puberty than those with normal sexual maturation. Insufficiency and deficiency of vitamin D were more common in girls who were evaluated in this study in comparison with other studies.
Symposium Session
Authors: UPH FK
Published: November 2018

Abstracts of the Dies Natalis Fakultas Kedokteran Universitas Pelita Harapan XVII 2018 Symposium Session
The Effect of pH and Mineralogy on the Retention of Polymeric Scale Inhibitors on Carbonate Rocks for Application in Squeeze Treatments
Authors: Jarrahian K.. , Sorbie K. S. , Singleton M. A. , Boak L. S. , Graham A. J.
Published: November 2018

The bulk “apparent-adsorption” behavior (Γapp vs. Cf) of two polymeric scale inhibitors (SIs), polyphosphino carboxylic acid (PPCA) and phosphorus-functionalized copolymer (PFC), onto carbonate mineral substrates has been studied for initial solution pH values of 2, 4, and 6. The two carbonate minerals used, calcite and dolomite, are much more chemically reactive than sandstone minerals (such as quartz, feldspars, and clays), which have already been studied extensively. In nearly all cases, precipitates formed at higher SI concentrations were caused by the formation of sparingly soluble SI/calcium (Ca) complexes. A systematic study has been performed on the SI/Ca precipitates formed by applying both environmental scanning electron microscopy energy-dispersive X-ray (ESEM-EDX) analysis and particle-size analysis (PSA), and this identifies the morphology and the approximate composition of the precipitates.

For PPCA, at all initial solution pH values, regions of pure adsorption (Γ) (PPCA < 100 ppm) and coupled adsorption/precipitation (Γ/Π) are clearly observed for both calcite and dolomite. PFC at pH values of 4 and 6 also showed very similar behavior, with a region of pure adsorption (Γ) for PFC < 500 ppm and a region of coupled adsorption/precipitation (Γ/Π) above this level. However, the PFC/calcite case at pH = 2 showed only pure adsorption, whereas the PFC/dolomite case at pH = 2 again showed coupled adsorption/precipitation at higher PFC concentrations. For the SIs on both carbonate substrates, precipitation is the more dominant mechanism for SI retention than adsorption above a minimum concentration of approximately 100 to 500 ppm SI. The actual amount of precipitate formed varies from case to case, depending on the specific SI, the substrate (calcite/dolomite), and the initial pH (pH = 2, 4, and 6).

Although the qualitative behaviors of both PPCA and PFC were similar on both carbonate substrates, the apparent adsorption of PPCA was higher on calcite than on dolomite, and the apparent adsorption of PFC was higher on dolomite than on calcite. We discuss here how these observations are related to the reactivity of the different carbonate minerals, the resulting final pH (which affects the dissociation of the SI), the Ca-SI binding, and the solubility of the resulting complex.
Maximizing the Value of Information of a Horizontal Polymer Pilot Under Uncertainty Incorporating the Risk Attitude of the Decision Maker
Authors: Steineder Dominik , Clemens Torsten , Osivandi Keyvan , Thiele Marco R.
Published: November 2018

Polymer injection might lead to incremental oil recovery and increase the value of an asset. Several steps must be taken to mature a polymer-injection project. The field needs to be screened for applicability of polymer injection, laboratory experiments have to be performed, and a pilot project might be required before field implementation.

The decision to perform a pilot project can be dependent on a value-of-information (VOI) calculation. The VOI can be derived by performing a work flow that captures the effects of the range of geological scenarios, as well as dynamic and polymer parameters, on incremental net present value (NPV). The result of the work flow is a cumulative distribution function (CDF) of NPV linked to prior distributions of model parameters and potential observables from the polymer-injection pilot.

The effect of various parameters on the CDF of the fieldwide NPV can be analyzed and in turn used to decide which measurements from the pilot have a strong sensitivity on the NPV CDF, and are thus informative. In the case shown here, the water-cut reduction in the pilot area has a strong effect on the NPV CDF of the polymer-injection field implementation. To extract maximum information, the response of the pilot for water-cut reduction needs to be optimized under uncertainty.

To calculate the VOI, the expected-monetary-value (EMV) difference of a decision tree with and without the pilot can be used if the decision maker (DM) is risk neutral. However, if the DM requires hurdle values through a probability of economic success (PES), value functions (VFs) and decision weights according to the prospect theory should be used. Applying risk hurdles requires a consistent use of VFs and decision weights for calculating VOI and the probability of maturation (POM) of projects.

The methodology was applied to assess the VOI for a horizontal-well pilot in the ninth Tortonian Horizon (9TH) Reservoir in Austria for a risk-averse DM. The operating parameters (polymer concentration and water injection) were chosen such that the water-cut reduction, which was the most influential parameter of the polymer pilot on the field NPV CDF, was maximized.
Numerical Study of a Hydraulic Fracture Interacting with a Natural Fracture under Different Geological and Engineering Parameters
Authors: Xu Wenjun , Zhao Jinzhou , Li Yongming , Rahman Sheik S , Fu Dongyu , Chen Xiyu
Published: November 2018

Complex fracture network makes it possible for commercial exploition of shale gas by means of hydraulic fracturing. It was believed that the interaction between hydraulic fracture (HF) and natural fracture (NF) had a significant impact on HF complexity. In this paper, a new numerical model has been developed to investigate HF/NF intersection under different geological and engineering parameters. Displacement discontinuity method (DDM) and finite volume method (FVM) are used to numerically model and solve the problem of coupled rock deformation, fluid flow, interface slipping, and opening associated with HF propagation and its interaction with NF. In addition, the model also considers the effects of fracture fluid leak-off. Based on the model, sensitivity analyses of key influence parameters are implemented. The numerical model results provide detailed quantitative information on fracture-geometry evolution, interfacial stress distribution and injection-pressure history. The simulation results show that the HF tends to cross the NF under the conditions of high principal stress difference, high intersection angle, high interfacial friction, high injection rate, high fracturing fluid viscosity and low initial conductivity of the NF. Moreover, the morphology of HF is significantly affected by two engineering parameters, the injection rate and the viscosity of the fracturing fluid. The effect of these two engineering parameters on the morphology of HF can be expressed as the product of them. The same value of the product results in the same HF morphology at the times of same injected-fluid volumes. In addition, the injection pressure curves can also help determine whether a crossing HF is developed when a HF interacts with a NF. The numerical model provides an effective approach for quantitatively analyzing the development of various types of HF/NF interaction behavior. It allows us to gain a better insight to the performance of hydraulic fracturing treatments in naturally fractured reservoirs.
Use of Multi Detector Pulsed Neutron Technologies to Address the Challenges with Saturation Surveillance in Rumaila, Iraq
Authors: Grimston Oliver , Han Xiaogang , Zett Adrian , Caudullo Andrea , Naji Al-taee Mohammed
Published: November 2018

Rumaila, Iraq, is one of the biggest oil fields in the world, producing through multiple stacked clastic and carbonate reservoirs and relying on several recovery mechanisms such as natural aquifer drive and water flooding which have changed the initial fluid distribution. To evaluate the change of fluids distribution, multi-detector pulsed neutron (MDPN) instruments are run within the field. MDPN measurements require careful interpretation accounting for logging conditions and formation environments to provide an accurate result of multicomponent fluid saturations so well work activity can be optimised, and production and recovery can be maximized. Compatibility with legacy data is also critical for use in time lapse evaluations.

Recently, the MDPN technology diversified with more instruments being developed. Field trials are required to understand backwards compatibility for some of the common nuclear attributes as well as benchmarking and calibrating the nuclear models with the in-situ measurements. While all share the same physics principle, the responses can vary owing to instrumentation design, characterization and nuclear attributes extraction in the field. We will present the data integration approach taken by the production team using historical and latest generation MDPN data, some acquired for the first time in the clastic and carbonate formations of Rumaila field.

The paper will describe BP’s in-house workflow customised for MDPN derived saturation in Rumaila. This will address the nuclear attribute screening and selection process for the two types of reservoirs (clastic and carbonate) and the associated displacement mechanisms. Data from multiple MDPN instruments are used to illustrate the robustness of our workflow that accounts for borehole configuration, formation properties, reservoir fluids properties and detailed nuclear models for each tool.

The nuclear model driven interpretation showed that logging conditions and reservoir properties can significantly impact the accuracy of fluid saturation. The uncertainty in MDPN derived saturation can be reduced if the deviations from notional values are known. Because of similar sand-clay properties, the carbon oxygen response in the clastic reservoir showed a unique pattern challenging the conventional understanding of such data. Additional to reservoir complexity, new challenges will be faced in relation to wellbore access because more wells are completed with electric submersible pumps (ESP). In ESP completed wells, the access to reservoir section will be thru Y-tools using slim MDPN instrumentation. Our study identified the optimal procedures and best nuclear attributes that can be logged in these conditions without increasing the saturation uncertainty.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence to Reduce Operational Disruptions of ESPs by Implementing Predictive Maintenance
Authors: Jansen van Rensburg Nico
Published: November 2018

The use of electrical submersible pumps (ESPs) is a highly effective artificial lift method for boosting oil production from wells operating in both onshore and offshore fields. When an ESP is deployed, its complete pump and electrical motor assembly is positioned below the surface within the oil reservoir that the well has tapped. Once deployed, the ESPs must be carefully maintained to be highly reliable and always available to prevent costly production disruptions due to unexpected pump failures.

Typically, ESPs are connected to SCADA or other distributed control systems to provide supervisory and control functions for their effective operation as well as for operational visibility. Today, many diagnostic methods are available to determine the health and status of an ESP system by making use of that functionality in its automation system. However, while these methods can provide insightful analysis of problems, they usually only provide retrospective views after failure events have occurred.

But this situation is changing. With recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) combined with the new Internet of Things (IoT) technologies, it is possible to effectively use data-driven analytics fueled by large data sets. In particular, AI technology that involves deep learning and neural networks can be extremely effective in detecting abnormal behavior of complex physical systems such as ESPs, based on the data gathered from the system, providing decision support for remediating or managing the causative issues.

This paper focuses on the results of implementing this AI technology combination to detect, flag, and remediate abnormal behavior for ESPs, which can increase their availability and prevent production disruptions. The subject use case involved 30 ESPs, with pumps ranging from 200–500 kW in power, installed in a medium-depth onshore oil field. The paper discusses the architecture of the solution that was deployed and explain how it supports a predictive maintenance model that is capable of accurately identifying abnormal ESP operating behaviors in advance before an ESP can fail and disrupt production.
Recent Advances in the Understanding of the Salt Tectonic Evolution of the Eastern Flank at Regional and Field Scale and its Relationship to the South Oman Salt Basin of the Sultanate of Oman
Authors: Heidorn Rodrigo , Salem Hisham , Shuaili Salim , Khattak Ali , Pentland Christopher
Published: November 2018

The Eastern Flank part of the South Oman Salt Basin of the Sultanate of Oman is an important area for Oman's overall oil production. The fields are largely controlled by deep seated reactivated Neoproterozoic faults and halokinesis of the Infra-Cambrian Ara Group responsible for rich varieties of complex structural styles which have direct impact on field performance and development. The fidelity of newer seismic, the ever increasing information from wells and better integration of various data sets of different disciplines allow new insights into the unlocking of remaining hydrocarbons within existing fields and within near field exploration opportunities.

The South Oman Salt Basin is subdivided into four NE-trending salt-related structural domains based on the type of salt withdrawal minibasins present. The Eastern Flank is located within structural domain I. Domain I represents the area where evaporites have been initially present, but have been subsequently removed by salt-dissolution and salt evacuation. The dominant structure style is the ‘mini turtle back structure', which shows a diverse structural architecture and is systematically classified based on structure- and fault architecture. Domain II is the zone of the large inverted salt withdrawal minibasin or turtle back structure which is located at the salt edge of the basin with evaporite presence in the subsurface. The structural style of a large turtle back structure shows complexities within the core of the structure and within the surrounding rim related to inversion and truncation of the Carboniferous and Permian reservoirs. This is reflected by the various development scenarios related to simple and complex cores as well as to simple and complex rims. Fault compartmentalization has a strong impact on field performance within domain I and II, thus several types of faults are established based on fault architecture and location within the structure. The systematic classification of structural styles and faults allow the establishment of analogues, which are in particular valuable for seismically poorly imaged areas. A new tool captures and centralizes the structural data, as well as a large range of other data sets within the production and geoscience environment from over 60 fields with the aim to make more consistent and better as well as quicker decisions related to field development planning.
Geohistory Reconstruction and Maturity Modelling in the Southern Pletmos Basin, Offshore of South Africa
Authors: Agbor Fritz Ako , Mhlambi Sanelisiwe , Teumahji Nimuno Achu , Sonibare Wasiu Adedayo , Van Bever Donker Johannes Marinus , Chatterjee Tapas Kumar
Published: November 2018

Despite the undergoing exploration and research for hydrocarbons during the recent decades, the hydrocarbon potentials of existing source rock(s) in the Pletmos basin still remain enigmatic. The basin has undergone rifting and transforms processes during its evolution in a manner that its present-day architecture and geodynamic evolution can only be better understood through the application of a multidisciplinary and multi-scale geo-modelling procedure.

In the study, thermal modelling and reconstruction of burial history of the source rocks in the southern depocenter of the Pletmos Basin has been investigated through an integration of data and methods.

Through geohistory Modelling, an integration of the acquired multidisciplinary dataset allowed us to reconstruct the burial history, basement subsidence, vertical fluid flow, and the changes in rock properties (i.e. porosity, permeability, pressure and fluid flow rate) both in time and depth, as well as established a reliable tectonostratigraphic framework of the Mesozoic sedimentary infill. Then based on the reconstructed burial history, thermal history was reconstructed by modifying the paleoheat flux to minimize variances, and comparing between measured borehole and predicted vitrinite reflectance and Tmax (thermal indicator) values. These enable us to achieve an improved understanding of the subsurface controlling processes that might have led to the sedimentary infill and resulted to the heat-flow distribution and present-day thermal maturity of the source rocks in the Basin. The approach gives us the opportunity to considered the geodynamic evolution events from Mesozoic (Upper Jurassic) rifting to Cenozoic (including major uplifts, erosion and subsidence, and the Shona Buvet hot spots). Here we present some selected results, from the burial and thermal history modelling reconstructions of the sedimentary geothermal evolution and thermal maturity levels of the source rocks at selected well locations within the area. Likewise, this study has provided supplementary information that aids towards understanding the Petroleum System(s) of the Basin.