REVIEW OF THE METHODS FOR MODELING THE IMPACT OF DEMOGRAPHIC FACTORS ON THE PARAMETERS OF SOCIOECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND HEALTH CARE SYSTEM
Authors:   The Lebedev Physical Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Fedration, Leonidov Andrey ,   Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology, Moscow, Russian Federation, Obuhova Olga ,   Russian Research Institute of Health, Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation, Shibalkov Ivan ,   Russian Research Institute of Health, Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation, Tufilin Denis ,   Russian Research Institute of Health, Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation, Kurakova Natalia ,   Russian Research Institute of Health, Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation, Klimko Vasilii ,   Russian Research Institute of Health, Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation, Kulakov Vladimir ,   Russian Research Institute of Health, Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Russian Federation
Published: January 2024

Significance. The evolutionary decline in fertility and higher life expectancy result in a progressive increase in the number and share of the elderly in most countries of the world, including Russia. Population ageing significantly affects the socioeconomic situation and requires the state policy be adjusted, including in health. The systematization of studies of these processes will allow to develop models for assessing the effects of changes in the Russian demographic situation and develop proposals for improving the national healthcare system. The purpose of the study was to analyze and summarize approaches to evaluate the impact of changes in the age and sex structure of the population and increase in life expectancy on the socioeconomic situation in society and state policy, including health care costs. Material and methods. A systematic review of literature sources in databases has been undertaken: PubMed, Google Scholar, Elibrary, Lancet publications. Results. The authors have analyzed the models used to assess the impact of the demographic shift on macroeconomic and social indicators, as well as the impact on the healthcare system. The main disadvantage of the studied models is their fragmentation, lack of a comprehensive assessment for making projections that are significant for elaborating recommendations on the development of state policy in health. The analysis of scientific publications made it possible to identify the main methods for assessing the relationship between demography and various indicators: GDP, savings, investments, innovations, structure of economically active population by age cohort, and education. Separately, studies related to healthcare are singled out, namely, on how the consequences of the transition to a “longevity society” affect the structure of morbidity, healthy life expectancy, financial costs of certain types of medical care, and the population dependency on medical care. Conclusion. The analysis of the scientific literature made it possible to identify a wide range of different models that can be used to assess the impact of changes in the age and sex structure and life expectancy on various socioeconomic indicators. A single integral model that allows to assess the overall effect of the demographic shift has not been found in scientific publications, making it relevant to design such a model in order to develop proposals for adjusting the state policy in health. Scope of application. The study results can be used by public health researchers, as well as public authorities developing health and social policy.