bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Temperament in children with Down syndrome and in prematurely born children
Authors: Nygaard Egil , Smith Lars , Torgersen Anne Mari
Published: March 2003

Parents of three groups of children completed the Children’s Behavior Questionnaire (CBQ). Participants were children with Down syndrome aged 4‐11 years (n = 55), prematurely born children aged 5 years (n = 97), and a group of normally developing kindergarten children 5‐7 years of age (n = 91). Mean levels and factor structures on the CBQ were compared between the three groups. The children with Down syndrome had less attentional focusing and expressed less inhibitory control and less sadness than the normally developing children. There were also group differences in temperament structures, especially a clearer emotional factor of “surgency” among the children with Down syndrome. The only significant difference in mean temperament scores between the premature children and the control group was that the former evinced less attentional focussing. The temperament structures in the Norwegian samples were very similar to those reported in earlier studies, conducted in China and the US.
Tactile memory of deaf‐blind adults on four tasks
Authors: Arnold Paul , Heiron Karen
Published: March 2003

The performance of ten deaf‐blind and ten sighted‐hearing participants on four tactile memory tasks was investigated. Recognition and recall memory tasks and a matching pairs game were used. It was hypothesized that deaf‐blind participants would be superior on each task. Performance was measured in terms of the time taken, and the number of items correctly recalled. In Experiments 1 and 2, which measured recognition memory in terms of the time taken to remember target items, the hypothesis was supported, but not by the length of time taken to recognize the target items, or for the number of target items correctly identified. The hypothesis was supported by Experiment 3, which measured recall memory, with regard to time taken to complete some of the tasks but not for the number of correctly recalled positions. Experiment 4, which used the matching pairs game, supported the hypothesis in terms of both time taken and the number of moves required. It is concluded that the deaf‐blind people’s tactile encoding is more efficient than that of sighted‐hearing people, and that it is probable that their storage and retrieval are normal.
Automatic mimicry reactions as related to differences in emotional empathy
Authors: Sonnby–Borgström Marianne
Published: March 2003

The hypotheses of this investigation were derived by conceiving of automatic mimicking as a component of emotional empathy. Differences between subjects high and low in emotional empathy were investigated. The parameters compared were facial mimicry reactions, as represented by electromyographic (EMG) activity when subjects were exposed to pictures of angry or happy faces, and the degree of correspondence between subjects’ facial EMG reactions and their self–reported feelings. The comparisons were made at different stimulus exposure times in order to elicit reactions at different levels of information processing. The high–empathy subjects were found to have a higher degree of mimicking behavior than the low–empathy subjects, a difference that emerged at short exposure times (17–40 ms) that represented automatic reactions. The low–empathy subjects tended already at short exposure times (17–40 ms) to show inverse zygomaticus muscle reactions, namely “smiling” when exposed to an angry face. The high–empathy group was characterized by a significantly higher correspondence between facial expressions and self–reported feelings. No differences were found between the high– and low–empathy subjects in their verbally reported feelings when presented a happy or an angry face. Thus, the differences between the groups in emotional empathy appeared to be related to differences in automatic somatic reactions to facial stimuli rather than to differences in their conscious interpretation of the emotional situation.
The effects of road traffic noise and meaningful irrelevant speech on different memory systems
Authors: Hygge Staffan , Boman Eva , Enmarker Ingela
Published: March 2003

To explore why noise has reliable effects on delayed recall in a certain text‐reading task, this episodic memory task was employed with other memory tests in a study of road traffic noise and meaningful but irrelevant speech. Context‐dependent memory was tested and self‐reports of affect were taken. Participants were 96 high school students. The results showed that both road traffic noise and meaningful irrelevant speech impaired recall of the text. Retrieval in noise from semantic memory was also impaired. Attention was impaired by both noise sources, but attention did not mediate the noise effects on episodic memory. Recognition was not affected by noise. Context‐dependent memory was not shown. The lack of mediation by attention, and road traffic noise being as harmful as meaningful irrelevant speech, are discussed in relation to where in the input/storing/output sequence noise has its effect and what the distinctive feature of the disturbing noise is.
Swedish and English secondary school pupils' attitudes towards, and conceptions of, bullying: Concurrent links with bully/victim involvement
Authors: Boulton Michael J. , Bucci Eva , Hawker David D. S.
Published: March 2003

Thirteen and fifteen year old Swedish and English secondary school pupils (n=210) completed a questionnaire designed to measure attitudes towards, and conceptions of, bullying. The older participants also provided peer nominations of classmates thought to be bullies and victims. Significant differences between pupils from the two countries, between younger and older pupils, and between girls and boys emerged on a number of these variables. For example, a significantly larger percentage of English pupils than Swedish pupils indicated that name calling is bullying, whereas the reverse was true for leaving somebody out. These results suggest that findings concerning incidence of, and beliefs about, bullying may not generalise from one group of pupils to another. Overall, participants tended to express anti‐bullying attitudes. The present results also add to the small but growing set of findings which suggest that pupils’ attitudes concerning bullying and their actual involvement in bullying are associated concurrently. Attitudes were found to significantly predict involvement in bullying even after the variance shared with participants' sex had been controlled. Specifically, those pupils that expressed the weakest anti‐bullying attitudes were found to be most often nominated by peers as a bully. The implications of these results for anti‐bullying interventions were discussed.
Local Polynomial Estimation of Regression Functions for Mixing Processes
Authors: Masry Elias , Jianqing Fan
Published: March 2003

Local polynomial fitting has many exciting statistical properties which where established under i.i.d. setting. However, the need for non‐linea r time series modeling, constructing predictive intervals, understanding divergence of non‐linear time series requires the development of the theory of local polynomial fitting for dependent data. In this paper, we study the problem of estimating conditional mean functions and their derivatives via a local polynomial fit. The functions include conditional moments, conditional distribution as well as conditional density functions. Joint asymptotic normality for derivative estimation is established for both strongly mixing and ρ‐mixing processes.
Testing for the Proportionality of Hazards in Two Samples Against the Increasing Cumulative Hazard Ratio Alternative
Authors: Sengupta D. , Bhattacharjee A. , Rajeev B.
Published: March 2003

A number of tests of the proportional hazards hypothesis have been proposed in the past. In recent years, researchers have proposed tests geared specially for the alternative hypothesis of “increasing hazard ratio”, keeping in mind the case of crossing hazards. This alternative may be too restrictive in many situations. In this paper we develop a test of the proportional hazards model for the weaker “increasing cumulative hazard ratio” alternative. The work is motivated by a data analytic example given by Gill & Schumacher (1987) where their test fails to reject the null hypothesis even though the faster ageing of one group is quite apparent from a plot. The normalized test statistic proposed here has an asymptotically normal distribution under either hypothesis. We also present two graphical methods related to our analytical test.
Asymptotic Expansions of Estimators for the Tail Index with Applications
Authors: Cheng Shihong , Pan Jiazhu
Published: March 2003

We present asymptotic expansions for two well‐known estimators of the tail index of a distribution—the Hill's estimator and the simplified Pickands' estimator. We then use the expansions to get more accurate interval estimates. Comparisons between the two estimators are also discussed.
Conditional Prior Proposals in Dynamic Models
Authors: Knorr‐Held Leonhard
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACT. Dynamic models extend state space models to non‐normal observations. This paper suggests a specific hybrid Metropolis–Hastings algorithm as a simple device for Bayesian inference via Markov chain Monte Carlo in dynamic models. Hastings proposals from the (conditional) prior distribution of the unknown, time‐varying parameters are used to update the corresponding full conditional distributions. It is shown through simulated examples that the methodology has optimal performance in situations where the prior is relatively strong compared to the likelihood. Typical examples include smoothing priors for categorical data. A specific blocking strategy is proposed to ensure good mixing and convergence properties of the simulated Markov chain. It is also shown that the methodology is easily extended to robust transition models using mixtures of normals. The applicability is illustrated with an analysis of a binomial and a binary time series, known in the literature.
Likelihood Factorizations for Mixed Discrete and Continuous Variables
Authors: Cox D. R. , Wermuth Nanny
Published: March 2003

Some general remarks are made about likelihood factorizations, distinguishing parameter‐based factorizations and concentration‐graph factorizations. Two parametric families of distributions for mixed discrete and continuous variables are discussed. Conditions on graphs are given for the circumstances under which their joint analysis can be split into separate analyses, each involving a reduced set of component variables and parameters. The result shows marked differences between the two families although both involve the same necessary condition on prime graphs. This condition is both necessary and sufficient for simplified estimation in Gaussian and for discrete log linear models.
Empirical Bayes Age–Period–Cohort Analysis of Retrospective Incidence Data
Authors: Ogata Yosihiko , Katsura Koichi , Keiding Niels , Holst Claus , Green Anders
Published: March 2003

We analyse the (age, time)‐specific incidence of diabetes based on retrospective data obtained from a prevalent cohort only including survivors to a particular date. From underlying point processes with intensities corresponding to the (age, time)‐specific incidence rates the observed point pattern is assumed to be generated by an independent thinning process with parameters (assumed known) depending on population density and survival probability to the sampling date. A Bayesian procedure is carried out for the optimal adjustment and comparison of isotropic and anisotropic smoothing priors for the intensity functions, as well as for the decomposition of the intensity on the (time, age) Lexis diagram into the three factors of age, period and cohort.
Resampling m‐Dependent Random Variables with Applications to Forecasting
Authors: Sjostedt Sara
Published: March 2003

Resampling methods are proposed to estimate the distributions of sums of m‐dependent possibly differently distributed real‐valued random variables. The random variables are allowed to have varying mean values. A non parametric resampling method based on the moving blocks bootstrap is proposed for the case in which the mean values are smoothly varying or ‘asymptotically equal’. The idea is to resample blocks in pairs. It is also confirmed that a ‘circular’ block resampling scheme can be used in the case where the mean values are ‘asymptotically equal’. A central limit resampling theorem for each of the two cases is proved. The resampling methods have a potential application to time series analysis, to distinguish between two different forecasting models. This is illustrated with an example using Swedish export prices of coated paper products.
On the History of the Correction for Grouping, 1873–1922
Authors: Hald Anders
Published: March 2003

The correction for grouping is a sum of two terms, the first depending on the length of the grouping interval, the second being a periodic function of the position. Thiele (1873) studied the second term, but missed the first. Sheppard (1898) studied the first term, but missed the second. Bruns (1906) derived the first term as the aperiodic term of a Fourier series and the second as the sum of the periodic terms. He found the correction to the coefficients of the Gram–Charlier series and proved that the second term is negligible for a grouped normal distribution with at least eight groups. Independently, Fisher (1922) used the same method to derive the correction to the moments. For the normal distribution with a grouping interval less than the standard deviation Fisher proved that the second term is negligible compared with the first and with the standard error of the first four moments. Moreover, he proved that the estimates of the mean and the standard deviation obtained by the method of moments for a grouped sample with Sheppard's corrections have nearly the same variances as the maximum likelihood estimates, thus providing a new and compelling reason for using Sheppard's corrections.
Heteroscedastic Regression Models and Applications to Off‐line Quality Control
Authors: Chan Lai K. , Mak T. K.
Published: March 2003

We discuss in the present paper the analysis of heteroscedastic regression models and their applications to off‐line quality control problems. It is well known that the method of pseudo‐likelihood is usually preferred to full maximum likelihood since estimators of the parameters in the regression function obtained are more robust to misspecification of the variance function. Despite its popularity, however, existing theoretical results are difficult to apply and are of limited use in many applications. Using more recent results in estimating equations, we obtain an efficient algorithm for computing the pseudo‐likelihood estimator with desirable convergence properties and also derive simple, explicit and easy to apply asymptotic results. These results are used to look in detail at variance minimization in off‐line quality control, yielding techniques of inferences for the optimized design parameter. In application of some existing approaches to off‐line quality control, such as the dual response methodology, rigorous statistical inference techniques are scarce and difficult to obtain. An example of off‐line quality control is presented to discuss the practical aspects involved in the application of the results obtained and to address issues such as data transformation, model building and the optimization of design parameters. The analysis shows very encouraging results, and is seen to be able to unveil some important information not found in previous analyses.
On Non‐parametric Estimation of the Survival Function with Competing Risks
Authors: Kvam Paul H. , Singh Harshinder
Published: March 2003

The non‐parametric maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) are derived for survival functions associated with individual risks or system components in a reliability framework. Lifetimes are observed for systems that contain one or more of those components. Analogous to a competing risks model, the system is assumed to fail upon the first instance of any component failure; i.e. the system is configured in series. For any given risk or component type, the asymptotic distribution is shown to depend explicitly on the unknown survival function of the other risks, as well as the censoring distribution. Survival functions with increasing failure rate are investigated as a special case. The order restricted MLE is shown to be consistent under mild assumptions of the underlying component lifetime distributions.
Bayesian Inference for Stochastic Epidemics in Populations with Random Social Structure
Authors: BRITTON TOM , O'NEILL PHILIP D.
Published: March 2003

A single‐population Markovian stochastic epidemic model is defined so that the underlying social structure of the population is described by a Bernoulli random graph. The parameters of the model govern the rate of infection, the length of the infectious period, and the probability of social contact with another individual in the population. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are developed to facilitate Bayesian inference for the parameters of both the epidemic model and underlying unknown social structure. The methods are applied in various examples of both illustrative and real‐life data, with two different kinds of data structure considered.
From Corporatism to Lobbyism? — Parliaments, Executives, and Organized Interests in Denmark and Norway
Authors: Christiansen Peter Munk , Rommetvedt Hilmar
Published: March 2003

The integration of organized interests into the formation and implementation of public policies is a core institutional trait of the Scandinavian countries. However, significant changes have taken place in the relations between organized interests and public authorities in Denmark and Norway during the last two decades. The use of traditional corporatist structures of interest intermediation has been reduced in favor of a corresponding increase in lobbyism. At the same time a marked increase in the frequency and intensity of contacts between organized interests and parliamentary actors has taken place. The shift in focus mirrors the increasing role played by the two parliaments in public policy formation and a less positive assessment of the outcomes of strongly institutionalized corporatist policy making by administrative decision makers.
Traditions and Public Sector Reform: Comparing Britain and Denmark
Authors: Rhodes R. A. W.
Published: March 2003

A governmental tradition is a set of beliefs about the institutions and history of government. In this article I argue the Anglo‐Saxon governmental tradition interprets public sector reform differently to the Rechtsstaat, participation tradition of Denmark, leading to different aims, measures and outcomes. In the Introduction, I define NPM arguing that is has become everything and is, therefore a meaningless term. I identify six dimensions to public sector reform: privatization, marketization, corporate management, regulation, decentralization and political control. In section 2, I describe the six dimensions of public sector reform in Britain and Denmark. In section 3, I explain the idea of a governmental tradition and argue the idea is essential to understanding the differences between Britain and Denmark. In section 4, I compare British and Danish governmental traditions, arguing the key differences lie in beliefs about the constitution, bureaucracy and state‐civil society relations. Finally, I provide a summary explanation of the differences and argue that traditions not only shape the aims, measures and outcomes of public sector reform but also lead to different interpretations of reform and its dilemmas. In Britain, the key dilemma concerns central steering capacity. In Denmark, the main dilemma is democratic accountability.
Multiple Institutional Embeddedness in Europe: The Case of Danish, Norwegian, and Swedish Government Officials
Authors: Trondal Jarle
Published: March 2003

The questions posed in the current study are (1) whether, and (2) how, participation within Commission expert committees and Council working parties of the European Union (EU) affects the coordination behaviour of the participants. Based on organizational theory arguments, the coordination role of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is arguably weakened by institutional dynamics existing within Commission expert committees. The opposite is argued to be the case within Council working parties. Empirically, this study is based on 160 questionnaires and 47 face‐to‐face interviews with Danish, Norwegian, and Swedish domestic government officials attending EU committees. Secondly, this study also includes answers from 49 officials at the permanent representation to the EU of these three Scandinavian countries. Being excluded from attending Council working parties, Norwegian civil servants participating within Commission expert committees are shown to coordinate considerably less with the foreign ministry than their Danish and Swedish counterparts. Notwithstanding these observations, this study also reveals how the coordination behaviour evoked by national civil servants reflects their domestic institutional affiliations. In addition to showing how EU committees affect coordination behaviour among the participants, the current analysis also shows how responses to integration requirements are filtered – and even conditioned – by a prior state of affairs at the domestic level of governance.
Costs, Output, and Institutional Differentiation in Danish Childcare Policy
Authors: Bogh Andersen Lotte , Bogh Andersen Jeppe
Published: March 2003

Investigating differences in costs due to institutional differentiation is of central importance, since most public sectors struggle with limited resources combined with high demands. Similar public services produced in different institutional set‐ups constitute excellent units of observation, since the production costs can be directly compared. An example of such services is found in Denmark, where the municipalities provide two types of public childcare arrangements. All Danish municipalities, to varying degrees, offer the cheaper type, namely day‐care homes. It is, however, remarkable that day‐care centers and day care in private homes coexist in the same municipality with a cost difference of about 40 percent. Using the framework of rational institutionalism, this article claims that the institutional set‐ups in the two kinds of childcare result in different employee strategies, which, together with varying sector strength, lead to widely different costs. The case is established by an analysis of interviews with employees, politicians and users of childcare services, combined with statistical evidence from the Danish municipalities.
Why Denmark and Belgium Have Different Implementation Records: On Transposition Laggards and Leaders in the EU
Authors: Bursens Peter
Published: March 2003

Statistics of the European Commission show different performances among member states regarding the implementation of European policies. In particular, this article explains why Denmark and Belgium have different records with respect to the legal or administrative transposition of European Union environmental directives. The article starts with a short overview of the implementation problematique and a presentation of the latest available statistics. Then European‐level factors are ruled out as possible explanations for the differences in performance. The author argues, on the contrary, that the differences between Belgium and Denmark must be explained by national institutional contexts. To this end, an institutional approach is presented, which draws attention to ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ institutions as explanatory variables. In total seven categories of variables are discussed: four ‘hard’ categories – the constitutional and administrative context (division of competencies and coordination mechanisms), institutional capacity, administrative and legal adaptation pressure, communication and continuity – and three ‘soft’ categories – institutional jealousy, Europeanisation and political adaptation pressure. It was found that both member states under study have different scores on almost all variables, pointing to rather unfavourable implementation conditions for Belgium and much more favourable conditions for Denmark.
Variation in American Sign Language: The case of DEAF
Authors: Bayley Robert , Lucas Ceil , Rose Mary
Published: March 2003

Variation in sign languages has been a neglected area of research in sociolinguistics. This article, part of a large‐scale study of variation in American Sign Language (ASL) designed to redress that situation, examines variation in the form of the sign DEAF, which can be produced by moving the forefinger from ear to chin, from chin to ear, or by contacting the lower cheek. Multivariate analysis of more than 1600 tokens of DEAF extracted from sociolinguistic interviews with 207 signers residing in seven regions of the United States shows that both linguistic and social factors significantly constrain choice among the three variants. The analysis also illustrates patterns that parallel variation in spoken languages. However, despite the similarities to variation in spoken languages, we suggest that results for the regional patterning of variation are best explained by reference to Deaf history, particularly to changes in the status and use of ASL in deaf education.
Mowr and mowr bayud spellin': Confessions of a sociolinguist
Authors: Preston Dennis R.
Published: March 2003

Although the literature has characterized how apparently innocent respellings of respondent data (in attempts to capture either the ‘flavor’ or authenticity of performance) inevitably demote assessments of the speaker's status and intelligence (and in some cases actually mar intelligibility of the transcript), more recent work shows how variation in spelling, like other levels of language variety, reflects social practices in speech communities. Although the social identities and stances thus encoded are not simple (i.e., they do not invariably reflect one ‘writer’ stance or demand one interpretation), they offer another mode for the investigation of language in social space and practice.
Risk news in the world of Internet newsgroups
Authors: Richardson Kay
Published: March 2003

The coming of the Internet has provided those who are able to benefit from it new ways of giving and seeking information. These new contexts of communication include newsgroups, very much a text‐based form of interaction with little visual enhancement. In the new era of ‘risk society’ (Beck 1992) people make use of newsgroups to talk about the risks which now confront the world, in their pursuit of trustworthy information and informants. Using the affair of Mad Cow Disease (BSE), with particular reference to the crisis in 1996, this article explores the dynamics of news exchange via the newsgroups as a process which is Interactive, International, Interested and Intertextual. These characteristics result in a form of discourse through which participants engage in the interpersonal social construction of risk. The credibility of the proposition that BSE poses a health risk to humans is the focus of their discussions: they are concerned with the nature of the evidence for that proposition and with the reliability of the sources responsible for endorsing it.
Diffusion, levelling, simplification and reallocation in past tense BE in the English Fens
Authors: Britain David
Published: March 2003

In the dialect contact framework proposed by Trudgill (1986), relatively little research has investigated the consequences of the mixing of different grammatical systems of English. The apparent time survey of the Fenland dialect of eastern England reported here provides an example of a range of dialect contact processes reconfiguring variable patterns of past tense BE, resulting in a variety with analogical levelling to was in positive contexts –‘the farms was’– and to weren’t in negative clauses –‘the farm weren’t’. In focussing this was/weren’t pattern, a number of the processes typical of koine´isation can be observed –diffusion (the geographical and/or social spread of a linguistic form from another socio‐geographical place), levelling (the eradication of marked or minority forms in situations of dialect competition, where the number of variants in the output is dramatically reduced from the number in the input), simplification (a relative diminution of grammatical irregularity and redundancy) and reallocation (where two (or more) ingredient variants of the dialect mix are refunctionalised to serve new social, stylistic, or, as here, grammatical roles).
On the nature of isolated and post‐isolated dialects: Innovation, variation and differentiation
Authors: Schilling‐Estes Natalie
Published: March 2003

The investigation of two historically isolated communities in the United States, Smith Island, Maryland, and the Lumbee Native American community in Robeson County, North Carolina, demonstrates that, contrary to assumption, isolated communities may be linguistically innovative and heterogeneous. Explanations are both cognitive and social. Speakers in isolated communities are not subject to the leveling pressure that comes with exposure to heterogeneous usage norms and so are free to retain intra‐dialectal variation and carry through internal innovations. In addition, the close‐knit networks that characterize isolated communities allow for the transmission of intricate patterns of intra‐community variation, while the inward focus of such communities heightens the social semiotic importance of this variation. The present study also shows that as communities emerge from historic isolation, they do not necessarily succumb to leveling pressure. Instead, speakers’ desire to retain cultural distinctiveness may enable them to retain and even enhance their linguistic distinctiveness.
Open Macroeconomics in an Open Economy
Authors: Balls Edward
Published: March 2003

There are three pillars to the new Labour Government’s approach to economic policy; delivering macroeconomic stability, tackling supply‐side barriers to growth and delivering employment and economic opportunities to all. This lecture focuses on the new Government’s reforms to deliver macroeconomic stability and the importance of open and transparent institutions and procedures. The lecture outlines four principles for macroeconomic policymaking which flow from changes in the world economy and the world of economic ideas over recent decades. It explains each principle and shows how they are being translated into practice in the macroeconomic policy reforms that the new Government has introduced at the Treasury and the Bank of England.
Testing For Real Interest Rate Convergence In European Countries
Authors: Fountas Stilianos , Wu Jyh‐lin
Published: March 2003

We use cointegration tests that determine endogenously the regime shift to test for bilateral short‐term and long‐term real interest rate convergence in the European Monetary System in the 1979–1993 period. The results of these tests provide strong evidence in favour of bilateral real interest rate convergence between Germany and several countries in our sample, particularly for long‐term real interest rates. This result carries the important policy implication that in several European countries monetary policy has lost some of its effectiveness as a stabilisation policy tool.
The Marshallian Market and the Walrasian Economy. Two Incompatible Bedfellows
Authors: De Vroey Michel
Published: March 2003

The aim of this paper is to question a view which is usually taken for granted, namely that the Marshallian partial equilibrium and Walrasian general equilibrium analysis stand in a relationship of continuity. It will be claimed that the contrary is true: the generalisation of the Marshallian market does not lead to a Walrasian economy or, conversely, the Walrasian economy is not composed of Marshallian markets. To bring this point home, the basic methodological choices underpinning the analysis of the Marshallian market and of the Walrasian economy will be compared. The issue of why no full‐fledged Marshallian representation of the economy has arisen which might stand as an alternative to the Walrasian account will also be investigated and a series of reasons for this lack of generalisation of the Marshallian market will be considered. Finally, it will be claimed that if the Marshallian economy concept has no explicit existence, it has nonetheless an implicit one. It forms the background against which a series of reasoning about the working of the economy as a whole, which cannot fit the Walrasian economy framework, are developed. No less prestigious names than those of Keynes, Hicks, Patinkin, Friedman, Clower and Leijonhufvud will be adduced as witnesses.
The Favourite‐Longshot Bias and Market Efficiency in UK Football betting
Authors: Cain Michael , Law David , Peel David
Published: March 2003

It is shown that the individual fixed‐odds betting market on UK football exhibits the same favourite‐longshot bias as that found in horse‐racing. The bias appears both in betting on results (home win, away win or draw) and in betting on specific scores, and there are certain trading rules which appear to be profitable. Poisson and Negative Binomial regressions are carried out to estimate the mean number of goals scored by a team in a match with given market odds for the various outcomes. Tables of odds for individual scores are derived and these appear to fit the actual outcomes far better than those of the bookmaker.
Grant Assistance and Small Firm Development in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland
Authors: Roper Stephen , Hewitt‐Dundas Nola
Published: March 2003

Small business support is an important element of industrial development policy in both Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. This paper examines the effect of grant support on small business performance from 1991–94. Around 50% of small businesses in Northern Ireland and 30% of small businesses in the Republic of Ireland received financial support over this period. In Northern Ireland, three clusters of assisted companies were identified who received support for marketing, training and capital investments. In the Republic of Ireland, two assisted clusters of firms were identified who received marketing and training grants. In each case, firms in the assisted clusters grew faster, tended to be more profitable, were more active in terms of sales and market development and adopted more ambitious strategic directions than those in the non‐assisted clusters. Selection models are used to explore whether these differences are due to differences in the characteristics of the assisted and non‐assisted groups or can be directly attributed to the effect of government financial support. In the Republic of Ireland there is no evidence of any effective targeting of assistance at better performing firms. In Northern Ireland, there is some evidence that assistance was targeted at firms with higher productivity growth. Grant aid had no effect on either the turnover growth or profitability of small businesses in either area. It did, however, boost employment growth. This is good‐news for job creation but has potentially worrying implications for firms’ longer‐term competitive position through its negative effect on productivity.
Making Britain More Competitive: A Critique of Regulation and Competition policy
Authors: Helm Dieter
Published: March 2003

The paper provides a critique of the Labour government’s attempts to make Britain more competitive by reforming regulation and competition policy. It is argued that the Utilities Act (2000) has not reduced the cost of capital, but rather the discretionary powers of the regulators have been generalised further, augmented by government guidelines covering additional social and environmental objectives. The paper reviews the impact of the windfall tax, the use of private balance sheets as a private–sector borrowing requirement, and the growing costs of regulation. The Competition Act (1998) has concentrated on conduct rather than structure, and the paper argues that the neglect of structural change to create competition, rather than merely sustain it, reduces the scope for enhancing productivity and hence the competitive position of the economy.
Friday May Never be the Same Again: Some Results on Work Sharing from Union–Firm Bargaining Models
Authors: Andrews M. J. , Simmons R.
Published: March 2003

This paper analyses work–sharing in the union–firm bargaining context. In keeping with mechanisms observed in actual negotiations, we assume that the firm sets employment and we consider bargaining regimes with and without overtime. In models without overtime, work–sharing is consistent with union–firm bargaining provided that income–sharing occurs when the wage rises. In models with overtime, a Pareto–improving cut in the workweek requires wage concession, which is necessary, but not sufficient, for work–sharing. Our models are consistent with a number of well–established stylised facts. In particular, we explain why estimates of the actual hours–standard hours elasticity are always close to unity.
Price Controls in War and Peace: A Marshallian Conclusion
Authors: Capie Forrest , Wood Geoffrey
Published: March 2003

Price controls are a very old means of trying to contain inflation. In Britain they were used in the Second World War and again in the 1960s. On the first occasion they seemed to work quite well though there were other factors involved—notably rationing. The second episode was not successful. Rationing seems to have been crucial.
Monetary Policy, Nominal Interest Rates, and Long–Horizon Inflation Uncertainty
Authors: Wright Stephen
Published: March 2003

Empirical evidence presented in this paper shows that the predictability of inflation at long horizons varies considerably across countries. Both simple theory and empirical evidence suggest that the crucial factor is the extent to which systematic monetary policy succeeds in preventing a unit root in inflation. The mechanism by which it does this appears however to be complicated by strong empirical evidence that nominal as well as real interest rates have real effects, which implies that monetary policy need not be so vigorous in reactions to inflation. This helps to explain why inflation rates in the US and (especially) Germany have been relatively predictable, despite monetary policy rules which appear to have been barely stabilising. The paper also presents tentative evidence that the power of nominal interest rate effects is inversely related to long–horizon inflation uncertainty, and hence ultimately uncertainty about monetary policy.
Intersectoral and International R&D Knowledge Spillovers and Total Factor Productivity
Authors: Frantzen Dirk
Published: March 2003

Disaggregate panel data estimates are presented of equations that relate a set of OECD countries’ sectoral total factor productivity to domestic and to foreign R&D capital. The estimates indicate that there are both important international and national R&D knowledge spillovers and that these spillovers are intersectoral and intrasectoral in nature. They show that the influence of domestic R&D is stronger in the large economies and that this is caused by more important domestic intersectoral R&D spillovers. There is also evidence of a greater influence of domestic and of foreign R&D in research intensive industries and of an interaction between the domestic economy scale and the research intensity effects.
What Do We Know About The New European Works Councils? Some Preliminary Evidence From Britain
Authors: Addison John T. , Belfield Clive R.
Published: March 2003

EU legislation mandating European Works Councils (EWCs) was enacted in 1994. Although much descriptive information on the content of EWC agreements exists, little is known of the determinants and impact of these new institutional arrangements. In the present treatment, we exploit a question on EWC status in the 1998 Workplace Employee Relations Survey to provide the first econometric investigation of the determinants of (largely) voluntary transnational councils and their potential effect on establishment performance and employee attitudes. Many of the sharper criticisms of EWCs are not substantiated in the data, even if the benefits appear muted.
Views From Above and Below: The Petronas Twin Towers and/in Contesting Visions of Development in Contemporary Malaysia
Authors: Bunnell Tim
Published: March 2003

Large‐scale urban transformation in Malaysia is the most visible sign of the rapid development which has accompanied the premiership of the current Prime Minister, Dr. Mahathir Mohamad. The national capital, Kuala Lumpur, has seen the development of a new city centre (Kuala Lumpur City Centre, KLCC) which includes the world’s tallest building, the Petronas Twin Towers. Using techniques from cultural geography, this paper provides a “reading” of the building. The paper first considers the symbolic role of the Petronas Towers in realising a state vision of national development, the so‐called Vision 2020. The building is seen to both image Malaysia as a “world class” national player (and Kuala Lumpur as a “world city”) as well as to promote new “ways of seeing” among national citizens. However, the paper also considers ways in which intended symbolic meanings are contested and the would‐be hegemonic state vision reworked “from below” through everyday experiences of life in the city and the nation.
“That Very Garden of South America”: European Surveyors in Paraguay
Authors: Naylor Simon
Published: March 2003

This paper argues that regions typically dubbed “tropical” or “sub‐tropical” were often also inscribed as economic and agricultural resources. Specifically, it focuses on western European surveyors' descriptions of early twentieth‐century Paraguay. In these texts, Paraguay was constructed as a series of fertile tropical and sub‐tropical regions, easily harnessed by European capital. Moreover, to enable the appropriation of the myriad agricultural resources on offer, the surveyors indexed Paraguay's “development” to the progress of the railways, in turn portrayed as moral and altruistic ventures. The paper moves from a theoretical discussion of the construction of tropicality to a brief history of surveying. It then analyses the portrayal of Paraguay as a massive arena of tropical and sub‐tropical goods, moving on to consider the role played by the railroads. The paper ends with a reflection on the relative successes of the proposed and actual schemes advocated by the surveyors in question.
Neoliberal Globalisation, “Exotic” Agro‐exports, and Local Change in the Pacific Islands: A Study of the Fijian Kava Sector
Authors: Murray Warwick E.
Published: March 2003

The economically vulnerable and geographically isolated states and territories of the Pacific Islands find themselves increasingly powerless to resist the recent accelerated diffusion of globalisation and the economic options that this entails. Neoliberal policy has arrived in the ocean region later than elsewhere in the tropical world and in the developing world in general. However, it now almost exclusively frames regional and state policy agendas, and is profoundly restructuring economies and societies across the region. Agriculture, by far the leading economic sector in Pacific Island countries, has been targeted specifically for reform. The cultivation of non‐traditional agricultural exports has formed the centrepiece of the evolving strategy. As well as “staple” exports such as sugar, copra, and taro going to non‐traditional markets, “exotic” niche products are being developed for export to high income markets in Europe, Asia and North America. A major example of such a product is kava – a “traditional” crop used in the preparation of a ceremonial and/or social drink. Psycho‐ and physiological properties have been identified in the plant by the pharmaceutical industry that is marketing a range of kava products. Produced widely across the Pacific, Fiji is the major export source. This paper traces the evolution of globalisation in the Pacific Islands, placing the current wave of neoliberalism in its historical context. It goes on to outline the evolution of the Fijian kava export sector, and investigates some of the local socio‐economic impacts of recent market growth. Given the evidence presented in this study, the paper asks if the power relations evolving under contemporary neoliberal globalisation are likely to be any different from those that existed during colonial globalisation.
Infants Protest Their Mothers’ Attending to an Infant‐Size Doll
Authors: Hart Sybil , Field Tiffany , Del Valle Claudia , Letourneau Marc
Published: March 2003

Twelve‐month old infants (N = 76) experienced 4 situations of unresponsiveness in which their mothers and a stranger directed positive attention toward a doll or a picture book while they ignored the infant. Infants demonstrated more protest, negative vocalizations and inhibited play during the doll condition, particularly if the doll was held by the mother. Infant contacts with the mother were more frequent when the mother held the doll. Infants’ distress during the mother/doll condition was interpreted as jealousy.
Compliance, Noncompliance Strategies, and the Correlates of Compliance in 5‐year‐old Japanese and American Children
Authors: Abe Jo Ann A. , Izard Carroll E.
Published: March 2003

The present study compared compliance, noncompliance strategies, and the correlates of compliance in 5‐year old Japanese and American children. Forty‐seven Japanese children and forty‐six American children were observed during three standardized laboratory procedures. Compliance, noncompliance strategies, and negative affect were coded during a Toy Pick Up procedure. Maternal directiveness and mother‐directed behaviors were coded during Mother‐Child play and Free‐play procedures, respectively. A baseline level of play was also obtained during the Free Play procedures to ensure that the childen’s willingness to engage in the Toy Pick Up procedure would not be confounded with their level of involvement with the toys. Consistent with predictions derived from a review of cross‐cultural research on socialization practices, Japanese children showed longer latencies to begin picking up toys in response to maternal requests and were also more likely to engage in the "less skilled" noncompliance strategies of direct defiance and passive noncompliance than American children. The two groups of children did not, however, differ in their level of negative affect during the Toy Pick Up procedure. Contrary to expectations, maternal directiveness was not associated with compliance in either group of children. However, approach behavior to mother during Free Play was inversely correlated with compliance in Japanese, but not American children.
Children’s Social Representations in Dolls’ House Play and Theory of Mind Tasks, and their Relation to Family Adversity and Child Disturbance
Authors: Murray Lynne , Woolgar Matthew , Briers Stephen , Hipwell Alison
Published: March 2003

Five‐year‐old children of depressed and well mothers were assessed on theory of mind tasks, and enacted scenes from their family lives in dolls’ house play. Performance on theory of mind tasks was only weakly related to family circumstances and child distur‐bance, but was significantly associated with measures of the child’s general and verbal intelligence. In contrast, children’s social representations elicited during dolls’ house play showed systematic relationships with family adversity (maternal depression and parental conflict) in interaction with the child’s gender: girls exposed to difficulties depicted particularly harmonious mother‐child relationships, and their accounts showed a high degree of narrative structure; while boys so exposed depicted poor parenting, and their accounts were relatively incoherent. The children’s dolls’ house play was also associated with several aspects of their wider experience, including objective assessments of mother‐child interactions, and behavioural and emotional adjustment in school. This technique may usefully elucidate the basis of child behavioural problems and psychopathology in the context of disturbed family relationships, and provide a route for therapeutic intervention.