bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Social and environmental impacts associated with fossil and mineral supply chains - a quantitative assessment of the EU’s international spillover effects
Authors: Malik Arunima , Lafortune Guillaume , Mora Camille , Carter Sarah , Lenzen Manfred
Published: February 2023

Fossil and mineral raw materials enable sustainable development and undermine it, causing unintended and detrimental environmental and social impacts via extraction and production processes. The reliance of humans on minerals has led to wide-scale mining and depletion of resources. In this study, we analyse how consumer demand in the European Union drives environmental and social impacts in mining sectors worldwide. We employ multi-regional input-output analysis to quantify positive (i.e., income, female and male employment) and negative (greenhouse gas emissions, accidents at work, and modern slavery) impacts of mining in raw material sectors, as indicators of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. We trace these environmen­tal and social impacts across the EU’s trading partners to identify sectors and regions as hotspots of international spillovers embodied in the EU’s consumer demand and find that these hotspots are wide-ranging in all continents. We estimate that across all sectors, EU’s consumption is associated with about 4200 cases of fatal accidents at work and 1.2 million cases of modern slavery annually. Raw material supply chains are respectively responsible for 5% and 3% of these totals, but also 14% of imported GHG emissions. These impacts take place primarily in Central Asia and the Asia Pacific as well as Africa. Our results underline the need for further reforms in mining industries and trade policies to eradicate modern slavery and other adverse social and environmental impacts and to implement safe workplaces for workers. Our results also highlight the need for transitioning to circularity in global supply chains for addressing the climate crisis.
Simplifying cloud microphysical process representation to reduce climate model complexity
Authors: Proske Ulrike , Ferrachat Sylvaine , Lohmann Ulrike
Published: February 2023

Earth's climate system is complex. Thus, trying to represent this system as the sum of its parts, climate models have grown increasingly complex as well (Shackley et al., 1998). However, this makes the model results and behaviour difficult to interpret, and increases simulations' computational costs.Building onto Proske et al. (2022), who demonstrated the potential for simplification in the two moment cloud microphysics (CMP) scheme of the global aerosol climate model ECHAM-HAM, we implement such simplifications for the CMP and activation scheme in ECHAM-HAM. For the CMP the sensitivity of the model to a specific process determines whether it is simplifiable. For example, heterogeneous freezing and secondary ice production in their present implementation can be removed without strong deviations in results. Replacing the sublimation and self-collection of ice with a constant rate, or replacing melting of ice crystals with a climatology has similarly small effects. The deviations that simplifications of other processes such as riming produce are larger, but all simplifications are robust to changing climate states.For aerosol activation into cloud condensation nuclei, using a climatology of CCN diagnosed from a previous run gives satisfactory results. From the perspective of the CMP this simplification eliminates the need for the whole aerosol module HAM, associated with large computational time savings (for aerosol optical effects, the representation of at least anthropogenic aerosols with a simplified climatology has already been demonstrated successfully (Stevens et al., 2017)).Of course, the value of simplifications and the evaluation standard for their results depends on one's modelling purpose (Parker, 2009). However, our results show that ECHAM-HAM contains redundancy in model detail and thus question the value of complexity in model representation as a normative principle (Shackley et al., 1998).  Parker, W. S. “Confirmation and Adequacy-for-Purpose in Climate Modelling.” Aristot. Soc. Suppl. Vol. 83, no. 1 (2009): 233–49. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8349.2009.00180.x.Proske, U., S. Ferrachat, D. Neubauer, M. Staab, and U. Lohmann. “Assessing the Potential for Simplification in Global Climate Model Cloud Microphysics.” Atmos. Chem. Phys. 22, no. 7 (April 12, 2022): 4737–62. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-4737-2022.Shackley, S., P. Young, S. Parkinson, and B. Wynne. “Uncertainty, Complexity and Concepts of Good Science in Climate Change Modelling: Are GCMs the Best Tools?” Clim. Change 38, no. 2 (1998): 159–205. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005310109968.Stevens, B., S. Fiedler, S. Kinne, K. Peters, S. Rast, J. Müsse, S. J. Smith, and T. Mauritsen. “MACv2-SP: A Parameterization of Anthropogenic Aerosol Optical Properties and an Associated Twomey Effect for Use in CMIP6.” Geosci. Model Dev. 10, no. 1 (2017): 433–52. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-433-2017.
Coastal setback zones can lessen Europe's future exposure to sea level rise.
Authors: Wolff Claudia , Bonatz Hedda , Vafeidis Athanasios T.
Published: February 2023

Future coastal risk will largely depend on where people build and settle, and not only on increases in extreme events or sea level rise as a result of global warming. In the past, hard engineering has been used to protect settlements in coastal lowlands. However, as this option becomes less viable and more expensive due to rapidly rising sea levels, coastal managers are increasingly turning to landuse planning interventions, such as setback zones or managed retreat. Although various studies show that one of the most effective approaches is to prevent urban expansion inside the coastal floodplain, limited research has been done to assess the potential of setback zones in minimizing future coastal exposure in Europe. This study enhances our understanding of the potential of coastal setback zones of different shapes in the EU by (1) assessing the avoided urban exposure resulting from the implementation of setback zones/retreat under different socioeconomic futures and (2) providing country-specific information on which type of setback zones is most beneficial in reducing urban exposure. For this purpose, we created spatially explicit projections of urban extent that consider different socio-economic futures and different types of setback zones to examine the effectiveness of these planning strategies in decreasing future urban exposure in Europe’s coastal lowlands. Our results show that by the year 2100, the majority of EU coastal countries can reduce the exposure of new urban land by at least 50% if coastal setback zones are established; and highlight that how we plan, build, and develop urban space in the EU coastal lowlands will be the defining factor on how exposed future urban areas are to sea-level rise. 
Temporal and spatial evolution of radiated energy to seismic moment scaling during the preparatory phase of the Mw 6.1, 2009 L’Aquila earthquake (Italy) and the 2016 Central Italy Seismic Sequence.
Authors: Picozzi Matteo , Spallarossa Daniele , Bindi Dino , Iaccarino Antonio Giovanni , Rivalta Eleonora
Published: February 2023

We consider approximately 23,000 microearthquakes occurred between 2005 and 2016 in central Italy to investigate the crustal strength before and after the three largest earthquakes of the 2016 seismic sequence (i.e., the Mw 6.2, 24 August 2016 Amatrice, the Mw 6.1, 26 October 2016 Visso, and the Mw 6.5, 30 October 2016 Norcia earthquakes). We monitor the spatio-temporal deviations of the observed radiated energy, ES, with respect to theoretical values, ESt, derived from a scaling model between ES and M0 calibrated for background seismicity in central Italy. These deviations, defined here as Energy Index (EI), allow us to identify the onset of the activation phase one week before the mainshock. We show that foreshocks are characterized by a progressive increase in slip per unit stress, in agreement with the diffusion of highly pressurized fluids before the L’Aquila earthquake proposed by previous studies. Our results suggest that the largest events occur where EI is highest, in agreement with the existing link between EI and the mean loading stress. Furthermore, our results show a progressive evolution of the dynamic properties of microearthquakes in the years following the Mw 6.1, 2009 L’Aquila earthquake, and the existence of high EI patches close to the Amatrice earthquake hypocenter. We show the existence of a crustal volume with high EI even before the Mw 6.5 Norcia earthquake. Our results agree with the previously suggested hypothesis that the Norcia earthquake nucleated at the boundary of a large patch, highly stressed by the two previous mainshocks of the sequence. We highlight the mainshocks interaction both in terms of EI and of the mean loading shear stress associated to microearthquakes occurring within the crustal volumes comprising the mainshock hypocenters. Our study shows that the dynamic characteristics of microearthquakes can be seen as beacons of stress change in the crust, and, thus, be exploited to monitor the seismic hazard of a region and help to intercept the preparation phase of large earthquakes.
Hydrodynamic effects of mangrove in different vegetation settings
Authors: Zhou Xiaoyan , Dai Zhijun , Carniello Luca
Published: February 2023

        Coastal flooding hazard has intensified in past few decades, induced by the effect of climate change. The presence of mangroves can mitigate wave effect on levees and seawalls thus reducing flood risk at the inshore regions. Meanwhile, mangroves can facilitate the tidal flat that they have encroached with having a relative accretion by trapping sediment, which enable these regions to counteract the drowning associated with sea level rise. Previous studies have provided a solid theorical base for understanding the hydrodynamic process within mangroves through numerical modeling and prototype experiments, which allow for an in-depth comprehension also on the geomorphological changes associated with different mangrove settings by field observation. In this study, a transect characterized by changing mangrove condition (plant size and density) was set up at the Nanliu delta, the largest delta in the southwest part of China, colonized by Aegiceras Corniculatum (AC). A series of hydrodynamic, turbidity and bio-morphodynamic data were acquired during both normal and storm weather conditions, which revealed the capability of native AC in both attenuating wave height and capturing suspended sediment in relation to vegetation dimension and densities. The results showed that the wave damping coefficient of AC was three times larger during the storm period than during normal weather conditions. Moreover, wave height was linearly attenuated with landward wave propagation. Our work further indicated that the slopes and intercepts of the linear fits between wave height and landward wave propagation distance under storm and normal conditions are closely related to incident wave height, water level and submerged vegetation volume. A vegetation parameter used to evaluate the vegetation occupied volume in a water column was calculated as an indicator of different settings, which proved to be highly correlated with the sediment transport process. These findings highlight how mangrove forests can positively act in reducing coastal flooding hazards suggesting the possibility of designing naturally based interventions exploiting the mitigation capacity of this vegetation type.
Changes in saturated hydraulic conductivity during forest regrowth over 10 years in the humid tropics
Authors: Hassler Sibylle K. , Hall Jefferson S. , van Breugel Michiel , Elsenbeer Helmut
Published: February 2023

Landscapes in the humid tropics are undergoing change in land cover. Besides ongoing deforestation of old-growth forest there is also natural regrowth and active reforestation. These changes in land cover affect soil hydrological properties, eg. saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks), and thus influence hydrological flow paths. While it has been well documented that removing forest in favour of pasture establishment frequently leads to soil compaction and hence increased occurrence of overland flow and erosion, the effect of reforestation on soil hydraulic properties is less studied, especially not in terms of longer time series of forest regrowth.We monitored the development of Ks in three reforested catchments in the Panama Canal Watershed, two reforestation trials with native species and teak and a secondary succession, over the course of 10 years. We measured Ks on undisturbed soil cores from the depths of 0-6 and 6-12 cm, applying the constant-head method. We compare the results to a previous study based on a space-for-time substitution in the same area.Our results show a marked increase in Ks variability in both depths after the first five years of measurement. This points to a non-uniform influence of vegetation development across the catchments. Median Ks values in the topsoil increased at all three reforestation sites over the course of the monitoring period and reached values that considerably exceeded those previously measured in 100 year-old forests in the region, which appears at odds with an assumed continuous increase of Ks with increasing forest age. Further comparisons with soil and vegetation characteristics will be used to explain this apparent contrast.
Application of Ubiquituous-Joint Model for Modelling Fractures in Crystalline Rock Formations: Preliminary Studies
Authors: Gafoor Ajmal , Müller Christian , Herold Philipp
Published: February 2023

Rock salt, claystone and crystalline rock are considered as potential host rocks for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste in Germany. Rock types, properties, and composition determine how these potential geologic barriers contribute to the containment, isolation, and retardation of the radioactive waste. Crystalline rocks are anisotropic and heterogeneous due to the presence of discontinuities. Therefore, the consideration of discontinuities in numerical models is crucial with regard to the performance assessment of radioactive waste repository systems. The project aims at developing a modelling strategy that enables effective modelling of fractures in crystalline rock. The continuum modelling approach using a Ubiqitous-Joint model is adopted to model the rock fractures. Its applicabilty for large-scale anyalses of anisotropic rock masses is being investigated by developing the numerical models based on predefined structural-geologic information. The influence of fracture orientations on the modelling of the rock masses will be studied, and their impact on performance assessments for the safe disposal of high-level radioactive waste in crystalline rock will be assessed.
Analyzing and classifying dynamical hydrological systems by uncertainty and complexity with the c-u-curve method
Authors: Ehret Uwe , Baste Sanika , Dey Pankaj
Published: February 2023

Recently, Ehret and Dey (2022) suggested the c-u-curve method to analyze, classify and compare dynamical systems of arbitrary dimension, deterministic or probabilistic, by the two key features uncertainty and complexity. It consists of subdividing the system’s time-trajectory into a number of time slices. For all values in a time slice, the Shannon information entropy is calculated, measuring within-slice variability. System uncertainty is expressed by the mean entropy of all time slices. System complexity is then defined as “uncertainty about uncertainty”, expressed by the entropy of the entropies of all time slices. Calculating and plotting uncertainty u and complexity c for many different numbers of time slices yields the c-u-curve. Systems can be analyzed, compared and classified by the c-u-curve in terms of i) its overall shape, ii) mean and maximum uncertainty, iii) mean and maximum complexity, and iv) its characteristic time scale expressed by the width of the time slice for which maximum complexity occurs.In our contribution, we will briefly revisit the basic concepts of the c-u-curve method, and then present results from applying it to hydro-meteorological time series of 512 catchments from the CAMELS-US data set (Newman et al., 2015). We will show how c-u-curve properties i) relate to hydro-climatological features, ii) how they can be used for catchment classification, and iii) how the classes compare to existing classifications by Knoben et al. (2018) and Jehn et al. (2020).ReferencesEhret, U., and Dey, P.: Technical note: c-u-curve: A method to analyse, classify and compare dynamical systems by uncertainty and complexity, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. Discuss., 2022, 1-12, 10.5194/hess-2022-16, 2022.Jehn, F. U., Bestian, K., Breuer, L., Kraft, P., and Houska, T.: Using hydrological and climatic catchment clusters to explore drivers of catchment behavior, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 24, 1081-1100, 10.5194/hess-24-1081-2020, 2020.Knoben, W. J. M., Woods, R. A., and Freer, J. E.: A Quantitative Hydrological Climate Classification Evaluated With Independent Streamflow Data, Water Resources Research, 54, 5088-5109, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR022913, 2018.Newman, A. J., Clark, M. P., Sampson, K., Wood, A., Hay, L. E., Bock, A., Viger, R. J., Blodgett, D., Brekke, L., Arnold, J. R., Hopson, T., and Duan, Q.: Development of a large-sample watershed-scale hydrometeorological data set for the contiguous USA: data set characteristics and assessment of regional variability in hydrologic model performance, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19, 209-223, 10.5194/hess-19-209-2015, 2015.
Morphostructural and geophysical surveys of the late Pleistocene-Holocene Broni-Sarmato Fault (Emilia Arc, northern Italy)
Authors: Tibaldi Alessandro , De Nardis Rita , Torrese Patrizio , Bressan Sofia , Pedicini Martina , Talone Donato , Bonali Fabio Luca , Corti Noemi , Russo Elena , Lavecchia Giusy
Published: February 2023

We present new morphostructural and geophysical data to discuss the recent activity of the Broni-Sarmato structure, an 18 km-long outcropping section of the north-verging Stradella thrust, located 50 km south of Milan, along the pede-Apennine compressional front in the rear of the Emilia Arc. An accurate seismic hazard assessment of this structure is necessary due to the presence in the area of widespread housing settlements, industries, lifeline infrastructures and large towns. Along the fault scarp we quantified the offset of recent river deposits by GPS, DTM and drone surveys; the scarp height values range from 6 to 23 m. Respect to previous works, we also better defined the geometry in plan view of the scarp; it is not continuous along the area, being characterized by several left- and right-stepping segments. We also performed new geoelectrical surveys across the scarp that suggest the presence of a wide zone of shallow deformation along the Broni-Sarmato fault trace. These deformations could correspond to fractures that act as preferential flow path for deep saline waters and facilitate the flow towards the surface. Horizontal interruption and vertical dislocation of a shallow, high resistivity layer also revealed by geoelectrical surveys, suggest that the Broni-Sarmato fault possibly produced shallow deformation along vertical and inclined zones. These data, supported by seismic activity, although quite sparse,  can be interpreted as evidence of late Pleistocene-Holocene tectonic activity of this section of the Stradella thrust.
A European database of soil piping-related features: a major step towards producing a piping erosion susceptibility map of Europe
Authors: Bernatek-Jakiel Anita , Vanmaercke Matthias , Poesen Jean , Biernacka Anna , Borrelli Pasquale , Derii Anastasiia , Hałys Joanna , Holden Joseph , Jakab Gergely , Panagos Panos , Piątek Dawid , Regensburg Taco H. , Rodzik Jan , Nadal-Romero Estela , Stolarczyk Mateusz , Wacławczyk Patryk , Zgłobicki Wojciech
Published: February 2023

A better understanding of soil erosion is not possible without including subsurface erosion. Soil piping may significantly contribute to the overall erosion problem in a given area and may therefore change the conditions and methods for controlling soil degradation. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify regionally and globally sites where soil piping occurs which then may require a change of the strategies to control soil erosion. In this project, we are constructing the very first data-driven piping erosion susceptibility map of Europe. The crucial point is to identify piping-affected areas by mapping the soil piping-related features, i.e. pipe roof collapses (PCs) and pipe outlets in the European Union and the UK. Mapping is based on an in-depth literature review in combination with detailed mapping using Google Earth imagery, and LiDAR data (if available). The database currently consists of 6841 piping-related features (6171 PCs, and 670 outlets), among which the location of 88% features is certain (within a resolution of 25 m). Almost 28% (1889 features) were located based on detailed fieldwork, 25% (1726) were extracted from published papers, and 47% based on a detailed analysis of Google Earth imagery and LiDAR data (19% and 28%, respectively). This database is currently used to construct the very first data-driven piping erosion susceptibility map of Europe. This research is part of the project “Building excellence in research of human-environmental systems with geospatial and Earth observation technologies” that received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 952327.
A Comparison of Agriculture-related Characteristics of Flash and Traditional Drought
Authors: Ho Sarah , Buras Allan , Tuo Ye
Published: February 2023

Despite rapid progress in the burgeoning field of flash drought research, few studies directly compare the differences in characteristics between flash drought (commonly understood as quick, rapid-onset drought) and traditional, slow-moving drought, particularly over agricultural regions where the effects may be the most disastrous. In this study, flash and traditional (normal) drought events are identified using reanalysis soil moisture in the data-rich agricultural region of the California Central Valley for investigation of characteristics related to agriculture, namely the relative duration of drought events, the correlation with vegetation condition, the impact of aridity, and the differences in them between rainfed and irrigated agriculture. Overall, there are considerable differences between flash and normal drought, particularly in their spatial distributions and trends due to aridity. Flash droughts even indicate a counterintuitive improvement in vegetation condition in the northern, more humid regions. Results also indicate improvements in vegetation conditions during drought for irrigated land over rainfed, highlighting the importance of irrigation as a drought protection strategy in agriculture.
Along-strike variations of fold and thrust belt architecture and tectonic evolution revealed by 3D structural modelling of the outer Albanides
Authors: Basilici Matteo , Mazzoli Stefano , Spina Vincenzo , Pierantoni Pietro Paolo , Tondi Emanuele
Published: February 2023

Seismic interpretation, cross-section balancing and sequential restoration unravel how inherited (rifted continental margin-related) and syn-kinematic stratigraphy, structural features and rheology played different roles at various times and locations along the fold and thrust belt to produce major changes in structural style in the outer Albanides. Different processes appear to have concurred to slowdown and/or arrest detachment-dominated thrusting of the sedimentary cover during a late-stage (<5 Ma) switch from thin-skinned to thick-skinned thrusting. In the northern outer Albanides, the limited thickness of Triassic evaporites inhibited thrust belt propagation within the Ionian basin succession, favoring further advancement of the detached carbonate platform (Kruja) units in its hanging wall. The rapid accumulation of an up to 10 km thick succession of syn-tectonic strata in the Peri-Adriatic Depression likely had a twofold effect of: (i) stopping detachment-dominated thrust belt propagation into the foredeep strata; and (ii) providing a burial that substantially contributed to thermal weakening of the crust. On the other hand, in the southern outer Albanides the Ionian basin carbonate succession, here overlying thick Triassic evaporites, was intensely shortened. Folding and detachment-dominated thrusting proceeded efficiently up to the western margin of the basin. There, normal faults controlling the platform-to-basin transition and the reduced thickness of the Triassic evaporites at the base of the Sazani (Apulia) carbonate platform succession hindered thrust belt propagation into the thick shallow-water carbonate succession. The latter was later broadly folded and significantly uplifted above regional by deformation associated with the crustal thrust ramp controlling the present-day blind thrust front in this southern sector of the belt. In this region, tectonic burial – produced by the imbricated and thickened sedimentary cover – rather than sedimentary burial likely contributed to thermal weakening of the crust. 3D structural modelling effectively shows the role of major, inherited transverse structures in compartmentalizing fold and thrust belt architecture and tectonic evolution.
Predicting badland occurrence in Catalonia by applying random forest techniques and a multi-scale approach
Authors: Torra Ona , Hürlimann Marcel , Puig-Polo Càrol , Moreno-de las Heras Mariano
Published: February 2023

Badlands are highly erosive landforms of dissected morphology, which can be found on soft rocks and unconsolidated sediments, with little or no vegetation, that are useless for agriculture. The erosion rates of these areas are high, causing important environmental and economic problems. For that reason, detecting the main conditioning factors that control badland occurrence and identifying susceptible areas is higly important to prevent soil erosion phenomena and their negative consequences.This work attempts to assess badland susceptibility and their governing factors at a multi-scale level, using a random forest (RF) modelling approach. Previous RF-based research have demonstrated that RF modelling is a powerful tool for making predictions in the same spatial context and scale where the model has been trained. However, upscaling RF-modelling results to obtain accurate predictions in other, more extensive spatial contexts than that used for model training, remains an important challenge.For that, the Upper Llobregat River Basin (ULRB, 504.8 km2) and Catalonia region (CAT, 32000 km2) have been selected as study areas. We have evaluated the viability of training a RF model for the analysis of badland suceptibility in the small spatial context of the ULRB, and further testing it to the more extensive spatial context of CAT. Revealing the most important factors that control badland distribution in the territory has been another goal in the present study. Eleven governing factors and two badland inventories developed for these study areas have been used for model training and testing. Model performance has been analyzed through validation tests and three different evaluation metrics: AUC, Kappa coefficient and accuracy. The outcomes of this work manifest that the two variables that have the most important relevance for badland occurrence are lithology and NDVI. In addition, our results showed that upscaling RF model results defined in the ULRB to the more extensive spatial context of CAT in order to predict badland occurrence, it’s possible but not ideal. Last, badland susceptibility maps of ULRB and Catalonia have been obtained with a very high accuracy (96% and 97% respectively), confirming the feasibility and uselfuness of RF approach for badland susceptibility assessment. 
Water quality and water circulation formation of a deep lake on the basis of interaction between surface water and groundwater in a highly acidic hot spring region
Authors: Sakakibara Koichi , Mizushima Sae , Hodoki Yoshikuni , Tsujimura Maki , Suzuki Kei , Park Hodong
Published: February 2023

Hydrological interactions between surface water and groundwater are key processes to describe the watershed water cycle including lake water hydrology. Understanding these processes is important for quality and quantity controls of water resources and their future management. Water originating from mining/hot spring regions gives significant impacts on local water resources. However, hydrological processes of how the discharged water with unique water quality affects different water bodies have not been fully understood. Therefore, the study aims to investigate features of surface water and groundwater interaction forming lake hydrology in a highly acidic Tamagawa hot spring region, in Japan. For this, the river water, spring water, and lake water at 51 locations in total were sampled. Lake water collection with depths of 0, 50, 100, 200, 300, and 400 m was undertaken at the center of Lake Tazawa. A variety of environmental tracers such as pH, EC, DO, inorganic ion concentrations, oxygen/hydrogen stable isotopes, CFCs, and SF6 in collected water samples were measured.The river water upstream of the Tamagawa River showed a pH of <3.0 and characteristic Ca-Cl type water quality due to the influence of a highly acidic hot spring. The other river and spring waters were almost neutral and of the Na-HCO3 type water quality. Lake Tazawa water was weakly acidic (pH 5.5, Ca-Cl type water quality), suggesting that the water in the lake originated mainly from the Tamagawa River. Vertical profiles of environmental tracers of lake water at the center of Lake Tazawa indicated that dissolved oxygen concentrations were above 87% saturation even at depths greater than 100 m, suggesting that a rapid lake circulation was occurring. The multiple uses of gas tracers (SF6 and CFC-12) suggested that water age is 4 and 12-20 years in the water close to the lake surface and water deeper than 50 m, respectively. The binary plot of SF6 and CFC-12 concentration indicated that the exponential mixing primarily governs lake water circulation processes. Moreover, calculations of the water balance of Lake Tazawa for the five-year period from 2011 to 2015 inferred that groundwater inflow into Lake Tazawa from the surrounding area may have occurred at a rate of at least 5-12 mm/day. These findings suggest that the inflow of groundwater and river water into Lake Tazawa is responsible for the lake's water quality and a part of rapid lake water circulation.
Spectroscopic and Imaging Observations of Spatially Extended Magnetic Reconnection in the Splitting of a Solar Filament Structure
Authors: Hu Huidong , Liu Ying D. , Chitta Lakshmi Pradeep , Peter Hardi , Ding Mingde
Published: February 2023

On the Sun, Doppler shifts of bidirectional outflows from the magnetic-reconnection site have been found only in confined regions through spectroscopic observations. Without spatially resolved spectroscopic observations across an extended region, the distribution of reconnection and its outflows in the solar atmosphere cannot be made clear. Magnetic reconnection is thought to cause the splitting of filament structures, but unambiguous evidence has been elusive. Here we report spectroscopic and imaging analysis of a magnetic-reconnection event on the Sun, using high-resolution data from the Interface Region Imaging Spectrograph and the Solar Dynamics Observatory. Our findings reveal that the reconnection region extends to an unprecedented length of no less than 14,000 km. The reconnection splits a filament structure into two branches, and the upper branch erupts eventually. Doppler shifts indicate clear bidirectional outflows of ∼100 km s−1, which decelerate beyond the reconnection site. Differential-emission-measure analysis reveals that in the reconnection region the temperature reaches over 10 MK and the thermal energy is much larger than the kinetic energy. This Letter provides definite spectroscopic evidence for the splitting of a solar filament by magnetic reconnection in an extended region.
Pore Size Redistribution by Laboratory Weathering Tests on Sedimentary rocks
Authors: Woo Ik
Published: February 2023

The pore size and the distribution of individual or connected pores contribute to the porosity in a rock which is closely related to rock weathering degree and rock strength. The chemical reaction is normally higher for the larger specific surface area which is closely related to the pore size distribution in a rock. The variation of pore size distribution in sedimentary rocks from Gyeongsan basin in Korea was determined by the laboratory artificial acceleration weathering experiment using peristatic pumps. The pore size distribution of rock specimens was measured by the nitrogen gas adsorption method using BELSORP-max II of Microtrac MRB. The pore characteristics were measured on the outer surface and the innermost part of rock samples to determine the variation of pore size distribution since the outer surface was directly affected by weathering processes while the innermost part was not. The high-purity nitrogen gas is used to evaluate the pore size distribution with different methods such as BET, BJH, and HK. The overall pore volume and size have been increased by the weathering experiment for the tested sedimentary rocks-sandstone, conglomerate, and shale. The increase of macropore in sandstone by weathering experiment leads mainly to the increase in pore volume, while the rise of micropore and mesopore in conglomerate drives the increase of pore volume. AcknowledgmentsThis research was supported by Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) funded by the Ministry of Education(NRF-2020R1F1A107576412).
Extrapo… what? Predictions beyond the support of the training data
Authors: Loritz Ralf , Gupta Hoshin
Published: February 2023

Neural networks belong to the best available methods for numerous hydrological model challenges. However, although they have shown to outperform classical hydrological models in several applications there is still some doubt whether neural networks are, despite their excellent interpolation skills, capable to make predictions beyond the support of the training data. This study addresses this issue and proposes an approach to infer the ability of neural network to predict unusual, extreme system states. We show how we can use the concept of data surprise and model surprise in a complementary manner to assess which unusual events a neural network can predict, which it can predict but only with additionally data and which it cannot predict at all hinting toward the wrong model choice or towards an incomplete description of the data.
Smallholder farming and water scarcity: contributions, benefits, and limitations
Authors: Su Han , Foster Timothy , S. Krol Maarten , J. Hogeboom Rick , Willaarts Bárbara , V. Luna-Gonzalez Diana , Mialyk Oleksandr , F. Schyns Joep
Published: February 2023

Smallholders make up the vast majority of farms globally in terms of numbers (over 400 million), cultivate around 20% of global cropland, and produce 30% of global food. Although 70-80% of smallholders are located in areas already facing water scarcity which may be further exacerbated by climate change and population and economic growth, little is known about the relationship between smallholder farming and water scarcity. This study aims to shed light on this relationship, both regarding how water scarcity affects smallholders’ production and vice versa, how smallholders’ production and water productivity contribute to local water scarcity.Hereto, we first estimated smallholders’ green and blue water consumption using ACEA 2.0 (AquaCrop-Earth@lternatives 2.0) in 56 countries around 2010, for main crops, and three farming systems. ACEA 2.0  is an updated version of the ACEA global gridded crop model based on AquaCrop-OSPy with a soil fertility module. It leverages a recently developed gridded global crop map that is both farm-size-specific and crop-specific. This inclusion allows us to incorporate the effects of soil fertility stress at an unprecedented level of granularity based on GAEZv4, which is highly relevant for evaluating the low-input rainfed, high-input rainfed, and (high-input) irrigated farming systems separately. The water productivity of smallholders was assessed in terms of a unit of water footprints and nutritional water productivity. Water scarcity was evaluated at the subnational basin level using global hydrological models PCR-GLOBWB, H08, and WaterGAP2-2C through ISIMIP 2a. The individual and combined effects of water and soil fertility stress on smallholders’ production were assessed and compared. 
Global estimate of eddy dissipation from a diagnostic energy balance
Authors: Torres Romain , Waldman Robin , Mak Julian , Séférian Roland
Published: February 2023

Mesoscale eddies play a key role in the transport and mixing of ocean tracers such as heat and carbon. They widely contribute to the stratification of the ocean and form the highest reservoir of kinetic energy. However, although baroclinic instabilities are believed to be a central mechanism of eddy generation, little is known about their dissipation. Notably, how and where the kinetic energy flows out from the mesoscale reservoir remains uncertain. In the ocean, the mechanical energy is dissipated by a variety of processes but only a small part occurs in the top few hundred meters of the water column, adding some difficulty to their measurement. Here, a simplified equation of the mesoscale energy budget is used to get a global estimation of the eddy dissipation rate. We first validate this framework in a global ocean simulation using a parameterized eddy energy budget. With the ocean stratification as the main input, we then apply this framework to an observation-based density climatology and a global reconstruction of the eddy kinetic energy field. We find a global mesoscale dissipation rate of about 0.45 TW, in agreement with recent independent estimates. The results also show an intense dissipation near western boundary currents, where both large levels of energy and large baroclinic conversion rates occur.  The resulting dissipation map brings new insights for closing the ocean kinetic energy budget as well as constraining future mesoscale parameterizations and associated mixing processes.
Statistical generation of fine-resolution precipitation data in Ganga and Godavari River basins of India using limited training datasets
Authors: Samal Nibedita , Singhal Akshay , Singh Ankit , Jha Sanjeev Kumar
Published: February 2023

The Ganga and Godavari are major rivers of India and are known for satisfying the agricultural needs of most part of the country. In the past few decades, these basins have seen increased geohazard scenarios such as floods, flash floods, landslides, etc. The availability of fine-scale precipitation data is a necessity for accurate monitoring and routine issuance of flood warnings. Downscaling of precipitation is a challenging task due to the complex topography of the basin, seasonality of the Indian rainfall, and large-scale influence of meteorological variables. In this study, we set up a Multiple-Point Statistics (MPS) based statistical downscaling approach using available precipitation data of the previous years to generate precipitation data for future at a finer resolution. The MPS approach uses the Training Image (TI) as input, hence we investigate into the adequate length of the past data record required for setting up the statistical model. We also investigate whether the length of data used as a TI in one River basin has any similarity in the other River basin. Further, what is the minimum year of data required to set up the statistical model. This is done by diving the datasets into five sets of TIs with each succeeding set larger than the previous one. This study uses datasets from High Asia Refined Analysis (HAR) (30×30 km) and the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) (10×10 km) as the reanalysis and observation data respectively for a time period of 2001 to 2014. The idea is to explore if MPS is able to reproduce proper spatial features even with smaller TI data. The work is significant as it will benefit the hydrologists and water resource managers. The work is in progress and the results of the study will be presented at the conference.
Changes in soil carbon, nitrogen, phosphorus along two temperate slope-floodplain-creek catenas under different land use - A case study in Southeast Germany
Authors: Lei Kaiyu , Bucka Franziska , van Grinsven Sigrid , Völkel Jörg , Kögel-Knabner Ingrid
Published: February 2023

The impacts of land use on organic carbon (OC) and nitrogen (N) in different ecosystems have been widely studied. However, less attention has been paid to its influence on the change of total phosphorus (Pt) and its two fractions, inorganic P (Pi) and organic P (Po), along slopes. In addition, since N and P are the main factors causing the eutrophication of aquatic ecosystems, it is essential to link the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems.Two slope-floodplain-creek catenas were chosen in the low mountain region of the eastern Bavarian Forest. The slopes of the two catenas have been extensively managed for grassland and cropland use, respectively. The floodplain was under grassland use. They were fertilized with sludge, occasionally with farmyard manure, under the same regime. Additional carbonic magnesium lime was applied annually at the cropland. Soil profiles at the top, middle and bottom slope, as well as the floodplain area, were sampled according to their horizons and replicated with three soil cores in each catena. Liquid-nitrogen freeze-cores of the aquatic sediments were sampled to extend each catena into the below-slope creek.We found the grassland slope had higher OC and N content in the topsoil (0-10 cm) and higher Pt and Po content in both the topsoil (0-40 cm) and subsoil (40-60 cm). The P content in the topsoil (0-40cm) of the grassland slope was dominated by Po, while the cropland slope was Pi -dominated. The OC and N stocks on the grassland slope were significantly higher than at the corresponding position on the cropland slope. Except for the lowest P stock found on the top slope of grassland, the Pt stock in topsoil (0-20 cm) was not land-use affected while the Po stock was significantly higher on the grassland slope. An accumulation of OC, N and Po in topsoil (0-20 cm) from top to bottom of the slope was observed. In the floodplain, upslope cropland use decreased the OC, N, Pt content and stocks, but reversely for Po. The upslope land use effect on OC, N and P content in the creek sediment was limited.In conclusion, this study provides a field-based observation on the change of OC, N and P (Pt and Po) under different land use upslope from terrestrial to aquatic systems through two slope-floodplain-creek catenas.
How does ecosystem adaptation to a changing climate affect catchment Transit Times Distributions
Authors: Wang Siyuan , Hrachowitz Markus , Schoups Gerrit
Published: February 2023

Climate change can considerably control the catchment-scale root zone storage capacity (Sumax) which is a critical factor affecting the moisture exchange between land and atmosphere, hydrological response, and biogeochemical processes in terrestrial hydrological systems. However, direct quantification of the changes of Sumax over long time periods at the catchment-scalehas so far been rare. This is mostly a result that it is difficult to quantify the effect of climate change on parameters of terrestrial hydrological models, which in turn contributes to considerable uncertainties in predictions of the hydrological response under changing climatic conditions. As a consequence, it remains unclear how climate change affects Sumax (e.g., precipitation regime, canopy water demand) and how changes in Sumax may affect partitioning of water fluxes and as a consequence, as well as catchment-scale physical transport of water quality, described by transit and resident time distributions.The objectives of this study in the upper Neckar river basin in Germany are therefore to provide an analysis of why changes in Sumax can be observed as a result of changing climatic conditions over the past 7 decades and how this further affects hydrological and transport dynamics. More specifically, we test the hypotheses that (1) the changes in water fluxes and storage dynamics over that a 70-year period can be attributed to adaptations of the root zone storage capacity resulting from the changing climate (e.g., precipitation frequency or wetness condition), which affects (2) the shape of travel time distributions and young water fractions, in particular for evaporation fluxes, which are most affected by the climate-induced change Sumax over different periods.The analysis is carried out based on long-term hydrological (1953-2022) and radioactive isotope data (1961-2018), using a distributed hydrological model coupled with StorAge Selection (SAS) functions, which is simultaneously modelling streamflow and tracer dynamics and provides estimates of transit time distributions of different water fluxes and of resident time distributions in different storage components.
Contributions of Anthropogenic Forcing and Internal Variability on Global Wave Height Trend during 1961-2020 - CMIP6/DAMIP Analysis
Authors: Patra Anindita , Dodet Guillaume
Published: February 2023

In this study, the contribution of external forcings on global ocean wave height change during 1961-2020 is investigated. Historical significant wave height (SWH) produced at Ifremer for different CMIP6 external forcing and preindustrial control conditions following the framework of Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) and other available multi-model simulations are employed. The linear trends (with statistical significance) in SWH computed over regional ocean basins could be mostly associated with greenhouse gas-only (GHG) and aerosol-only (AER) forcing. The SWH in Arctic and Antarctic Ocean shows remarkable trends and GHG induced change could explain most of it. Moreover, this can be attributed to clear decline in sea-ice extent with GHG induced wind speed change. The SWH weakening over North Pacific is majorly influenced by AER forcing rather than GHG, in contrast to SWH weakening over North Atlantic and North Indian Ocean. In addition to the anthropogenic forcings, internal variability estimated from control simulation has important contribution to the total change.
Drought impact-based forecasting: Trade-offs between indicators and impacts
Authors: Shyrokaya Anastasiya , Di Baldassarre Giuliano , Cloke Hannah , Messori Gabriele , Pappenberger Florian , Pechlivanidis Ilias
Published: February 2023

Despite the progress in seasonal drought forecasting, it remains challenging to identify suitable drought indices for accurately predicting the impacts of a future drought event. In this study, we identified relationships across Europe between the forecasting skill of various drought indices and the estimated drought impacts. We calculated the indices over various accumulation periods, and assessed the forecasting skill of indices computed based on various seasonal prediction systems. An evaluation was performed by computing the same indices from the ERA5 reanalysis data and comparing them across various verification metrics. We further conducted a literature review of the studies assessing the performance of the indices in terms of estimating drought impacts across Europe. We finally performed a trade-off analysis and mapped the drought indices based on their drought forecasting and drought impact estimating skills.Overall, this analysis is a step forward to detect the most suitable drought indices for predicting drought impacts across Europe. Here, not only we present a new approach for evaluating the relationship between drought indices and impacts, we also resolve the dilemma of choosing the indices to be incorporated in the impact functions. Such scientific advancements are setting significant contributions to the emerging field of operational impact-based forecasting and operational drought early warning services.