bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A Generalised Beta-Logistic Model for Longitudinal Data with an Application to Residential Mobility
Authors: Davies R B
Published: October 2006

The beta-logistic model described by Heckman and Willis in 1977 is generalised to include feedback effects and time-varying variables. The resulting model provides a flexible and analytically tractable framework for inference from longitudinal discrete-time data on recurrent choice. Moreover, consistency with the cross-sectional logit model ensures theoretical plausibility. The statistical and practical problems that have to be confronted in making the model operational are illustrated by an application to data on residential mobility.
Spatial Interaction Modelling: A Statistical Approach Based on the Concept of the Wave Equation
Authors: Mazurkiewicz L
Published: October 2006

An analogy to the so-called Schrödinger wave equation is made to derive the familiar model of spatial interaction with the distance decay function in the form of a random variable distribution.
The Structural Stability of the US Regions: Evidence and Theoretical Underpinnings
Authors: Dendrinos D S
Published: October 2006

A follow-up to a recent paper on the US regional dynamic structure is presented. Taking off from the previous work, where a system of two coupled ordinary differential equations on relative regional population and per-capita income was formulated and tested, the present paper outlines certain theoretical ramifications. They include: the derivation of a regional potential, fast and slow motions, and a two-time-scale maximum-entropy principle. Some policy implications are drawn.
Urban Transportation Network-Equilibrium and Design Models: Recent Achievements and Future Prospects
Authors: Boyce D E
Published: October 2006

Three case studies pertaining to the development of scientifically rigorous methods in urban transportation planning are presented. Drawing on the lessons of these studies, an approach and attitude toward future research on planning methods and practice is considered.
Discrete Choice Theory and the General Equilibrium of Employment, Housing, and Travel Networks in a Lowry-Type Model of the Urban Economy
Authors: Anas A
Published: October 2006

Five influential paradigms established by Beckmann, Lowry, Wilson, Mills, and McFadden are unified by developing a long-run economic general equilibrium model of urban land-use based on probabilistic discrete choice theory. The model takes into account the interdependence of export-oriented and service employment with population. Households' choices of employment type, employment location, type and location of housing, shopping destination, and choice of travel routes in the journey to work and journey to shop are determined simultaneously by means of stochastic utility maximization. Firms' choices of building type and location and landowners' choices of land-use type and density are determined by means of stochastic profit maximization. Travel occurs on a congestible link—node network. The model determines the wage rate for each employment type in each zone, the price of floor space for each building type in each zone, the price of land in each zone, the price of the locally traded composite commodity in each zone, and the peak and off-peak congested travel-cost and travel-time for each link of the network. The quantity of land which remains undeveloped is also determined. I formulate a nonlinear mathematical programming problem which is equivalent to the general equilibrium problem. Using this formulation, I prove the existence and uniqueness of the general equilibrium in all the prices and physical allocations.
Price Shocks and the Components of Urban Inflation
Authors: Clark G L
Published: October 2006

In a previous study of US city inflation, I emphasized the temporal regularities of urban price inflation. But, despite these identified regularities, it is apparent that the process of inflation is rarely so regular and so systematic. Unanticipated shocks in three components, energy food, and housing, dominate the post-1950 record of US inflation. Analysis of specific events and the patterns of local inflation in these three components reveals that food shocks and, to a lesser extent, energy price shocks have had relatively even spatial repercussions. However, it is also apparent that housing price inflation has varied considerably over space and time. Even so, it is still plausible that national price inflation is a fair approximation for local inflation.
Research Policy and Review 1. Taking the Rest of the World Seriously? The State of British Urban and Regional Research in a Time of Economic Crisis
Authors: Thrift N J
Published: October 2006

The links between the British economy and the world economy are becoming more important every year. As a result, change in Britain and the rest of the world is now directly related as never before. But British research on urban and regional change has been slow to take account of this fact and, in general, remains committed to a view of the world in which the British economy stops at the shoreline of Britain and the world economy appears as a set of ‘external factors' or ‘macrotrends in the economy’, or ‘international processes’ that are conjured up by the outside world and then fed into the British economy as something called ‘restructuring’. This parochial point of view, so inappropriate in the modern world, is illustrated by the Economic and Social Research Council Environment and Planning Committee document, “Research policy and priorities”.
Economic—Demographic Modeling with Endogenously Determined Birth and Migration Rates: Theory and Prospects
Authors: Isserman A M
Published: October 2006

The standard demographic approach to population forecasting consists of extrapolating into the future carefully measured birth, death, and migration rates. An alternative is to forecast changes in those rates on the basis of social science theories. In this paper the prospects for incorporating those theories into forecasting models are assessed. The paper has two parts, the first devoted to fertility and the second to migration. Each contains a description of the demographic methods currently used by the US Bureau of the Census followed by a comprehensive review of the theoretical foundations for forecasting and an assessment of the prospects for doing so.
Economic Explanations of Spatial Variation in Distance Deterrence
Authors: Gordon I R
Published: October 2006

Recent studies have provided evidence that distance-deterrence parameters may vary between areas even in doubly constrained spatial interaction models. In particular, it has been suggested that distance effects may be stronger for less accessible origins or destinations. This paper considers possible explanations for such variation. It is argued that explanations in terms of ‘map pattern’ alone are inadequate and that more substantive explanations are required in relation to the economic assumptions of the standard spatial interaction model. Four potentially variable parameters in this model are distinguished and three specific hypotheses to account for the observed pattern are outlined. These involve a real income effect, scale economies in transport costs, and the spatial concentration of specialised functions.
A Discriminant Analysis of the 1980 São Paulo Industrial Location Survey
Authors: Townroe P M
Published: October 2006

Industrial location surveys typically generate large data sets with information on the characteristics of the companies and plants involved as well as on the relative importance of different locational push and pull factors. Since for the majority of companies locational choice results from the consideration of a range of factors, discriminant analysis can be used to reveal the important groupings of factors which distinguish the choices made by alternative subgroups of firms in a sample or population. This paper uses the results of the 581-firm 1980 São Paulo industrial location survey to examine some of the issues and specification choices which arise in using the discriminant model for this purpose. The results presented highlight the plant characteristics and the locational pull factors which distinguish industrial moves from the Säo Paulo metropolitan area out to surrounding cities from moves within the area.
An Adjustment Model of Regional Production
Authors: Clark G L , Gertler M
Published: October 2006

A model of regional production is proposed which links local output to the distribution of income between owners and workers. In contrast to conventional regional production theories, our model is adjustment oriented, eschewing equilibrium for disequilibrium and certainty for uncertainty. The model demonstrates the integration of short-run events with long-run regional differentiation and technological change. Dynamic time-series estimates, based on US state and industry data provide support for the proposed relationships. Suggestions are also made for a new theory of regional output and employment.
Transitions to Chaos with Increasing System Complexity: The Case of Regional Industrial Systems
Authors: White R W
Published: October 2006

In this paper are examined the onset and character of chaotic behaviour in a class of models representing a spatially distributed economic system characterized by economies and diseconomies both of scale and agglomeration; particular attention is paid to the role of complexity. Two major results emerge: (1) there is an inverse relationship between system complexity and the response rate, r, at which chaotic behaviour appears; and (2) with increasing complexity there is a blurring of the point at which chaotic behaviour appears. Of the two main characteristics of such behaviour, equifinality disappears at a lower value of r than does periodicity.
An Adjacency Constraint in Agglomerative Hierarchical Classifications of Geographic Data
Authors: Margules C R , Faith D P , Belbin L
Published: October 2006

A numerical method for classifying geographic data is presented which incorporates geographic location as an external constraint. The method was implemented by making minimal changes to an existing agglomerative hierarchical algorithm. This was seen as the simplest solution, both computationally and operationally. Given a matrix of similarities or distances calculated from the usual intrinsic variables, the classification proceeds normally with the constraint that only adjacent objects are allowed to form groups. The method has been implemented previously, but here the examination of it is extended to cover the effects of a range of different fusion strategies, and to consider changes in within-group heterogeneity as a result of imposing an adjacency constraint. Three other matters arising are discussed: the presence of regional as opposed to global outliers of a classification; the occurrence of reversals in similarity values; and a measure of the stress imposed on a classification with an adjacency constraint.

The method is seen as suggesting a possible general solution to the problem of constraints in numerical classification. Some examples of other constraints and the appropriate fusion strategies are given.
Location Processes, Urbanization, and Territorial Development: An Exploratory Essay
Authors: Scott A J
Published: October 2006

The paper opens with an overview of the problem of commodity production in capitalism. It is shown how a determinate pattern of industrial organization grows out of the labor process. The problem of the integration and disintegration of productive activities is dealt with. Functional disintegration is shown to lead to the formation of polarized complexes of productive activity. The human consequences of the emergence of such complexes are described. In particular, brief discussions are presented of (1) local labor markets, (2) the reproduction of the labor force, and (3) the development and meaning of a local political culture. The inner decay of productive complexes is then shown to proceed on the basis of internal changes within the industrial system. These same changes lead to a decentralization of units of capital and to the emergence of a new spatial/international division of labor. The paper concludes with a brief allusion to the historical emergence of the global city.
Productive Decentralisation in Three European Regions
Authors: Cooke P , da Rosa Pires A
Published: October 2006

Recent work on nonmetropolitan industrialisation has tended to stress environmental attractiveness and the shortage of space for in situ expansion as the factors largely responsible for the process. The argument presented in this paper is that the process cannot adequately be understood in such terms. Some recipient locations are not especially environmentally attractive, and in other cases decentralisation has been to sizeable urban as well as rural locations. Three European regions, South Wales (United Kingdom), Emilia—Romagna (Italy), and Aveiro (Portugal), are chosen as representative of the different kinds of area to which industry has been decentralising. In each case, metals-based (often engineering) industry has been a prime decentraliser. The reasons for this include technical change enabling economies of scale to be achieved in small productive units, the search for lower production costs, social characteristics of the work force, and product-market factors.
Owner-Occupied Housing in Europe: Postwar Developments and Current Dilemmas
Authors: Martens M
Published: October 2006

Owner-occupation has become a major tenure form in Western Europe. Yet, relatively little is known about the way owner-occupation is provided, since most studies tend to concentrate only on the effects of different forms of state support for the tenure. This survey examines owner-occupied housing markets in five European countries, Britain, France, West Germany, Denmark, and the Netherlands. Their housing markets vary substantially, but differences are especially marked between Britain and the rest of Europe. Differences in owner-occupied housing markets between these countries arise in the timing of the expansion of owner-occupation; in the relation between the building industry and dominant forms of housing promotion; in the roles played by the market for secondhand housing and in the importance of mortgage finance. One common characteristic of all these countries, however, has been the appearance of house-price inflation during the 1970s. The rising long-term trend of house prices has been punctuated by periodic booms and slumps. Market instability has helped to cause the major crises of housing production that exist in all countries. The survey concludes by indicating the dilemmas under the current structures of provision for state policies aimed at expanding owner-occupation.
The Costs of Urban Sprawl: Some New Evidence
Authors: Gordon P , Wong H L
Published: October 2006

A large national sample from the US 1977 Nationwide Personal Transportation Study is analyzed in order to test the transport economies that may result from the dispersion of work trip-ends. Based on indirect evidence that the largest metropolitan areas have the largest proportion of noncentral-city work trip-ends, we associate a variety of work-trip results for such cities with a polycentric urban form hypothesis. We claim that these results also suggest that decentralized settlement (‘sprawl’?) is not necessarily uneconomical.
Normative versus Heuristic Models of Residential Search Behavior: An Empirical Comparison
Authors: Phipps A G , Meyer R J
Published: October 2006

In this paper is reported an empirical comparison between two models of residential search behavior: a normative stopping model derived by Phipps and Laverty and a heuristic model proposed by Meyer. This normative rule is exemplary of a large class of models in economics in which it is assumed that individuals act as if they maximize rational expectations when making sequential decisions. The heuristic rule, in contrast, is exemplary of descriptive models in psychology in which it is assumed that such decisions are better characterized by a more simplified cognitive algebra. A comparison is made of the ability of the models to explain the behavior of subjects in an apartment search game. The results tend to favor the heuristic model: stopping appears best characterized by a set of individual-specific utility-difference thresholds. Implications of the results for the role of normative versus descriptive models in the development of residential search theory are discussed.
The Influence of Size, Siting, Age, and Physical Characteristics of Factory Premises on the Survival and Death of Footwear Manufacturing Establishments in the East Midlands, UK
Authors: Mounfield P R , Unwin D J , Guy K
Published: October 2006

The propensity of factories in the footwear industry of the East Midlands to survive as active units of production over the period 1957 to 1979 is shown to be associated with at least some of the attributes of size, location, type, and age of the premises occupied. A number of possible causes of establishment or ‘case’ loss are suggested but the analysis is hampered by the problem of unravelling a complex web of interrelationships between the attributes used. In the second part of the paper an attempt is made to simplify the complex web using methods from numerical taxonomy. The strategy adopted is to use an objective classification method to define types of factories on the basis of shared common attributes and then to determine which of the resulting types have suffered the greatest losses. It is shown that relative employment loss has been greatest in old multistorey premises of medium size, particularly when located in the inner city. It is also argued that the premises most unsuitable for the accommodation of modern technological developments in production have been most at risk.
Age Time and Calendar Time: Two Facets of the Residential Mobility Process
Authors: Thorns D C
Published: October 2006

The paper begins with a review of some of the approaches which have in the past been adopted for the study of residential mobility. The limitations are then identified which arise from approaches which either concentrated upon the individual to the exclusion of the institutional context of mobility or, as is currently tending to happen, concentrate upon the institutional analysis to the exclusion of the individual actor. From this discussion an attempt is made to bring together the two aspects of analysis and provide a model which relates the institutional and the individual aspects of residential mobility. In the final section of the paper, material is presented from a New Zealand study of residential mobility to demonstrate the utility of the approach and the range and variety of material it can provide.
Distributed Lags in Local Responses to Fluctuations in Unemployment
Authors: Gordon I R
Published: October 2006

In this paper the sources of distributed lags, involving both positive and negative lead and lag terms, in the relationship between local and national unemployment series are analysed. First, the elements of labour supply and demand from which local unemployment changes result are considered, with emphasis on the role of induced labour migration. Second, the consequences of the arithmetical relationship between local and national unemployment series are examined. It is shown that the national-local unemployment relationship should be nonlinear and the lag distribution should be dependent on the level of unemployment. More explicit recognition of causal relationships is necessary if substantive conclusions are to be drawn from statistical analyses of lag structures.
Fuzzy Economic Regions in Europe
Authors: Ponsard C , Tranqui P
Published: October 2006

Economic regions are fuzzy spaces. A taxonomic method of fuzzy regionalization is presented to describe regions which maintain their imprecise characteristics and frontiers. All fuzzy aspects of elementary spatial units, from which regionalization is carried out, can thus be integrated at every stage of the classification process. This method is then applied to the member States of the European Economic Community. The results are original because they lead to interesting conclusions about the regional structures of the European Community.
An Empirical Test of a Joint Model of Residential Mobility and Housing Choice
Authors: Clark WAV , Onaka J L
Published: October 2006

A nested multinomial logit (MNL) model is used to estimate the joint choice of moving and housing selection. The coefficients are derived from a sequential application of the standard MNL model using maximum likelihood. The choice of the dwelling type is followed by choice of neighborhood and finally by the choice of moving or staying. The models are estimated for three household categories and nine neighborhoods with data from the Rand Corporation Housing Allowance Supply Experiment. The dwelling-type choice model fits reasonably well and shows the expected significant impact of space on dwelling choice. The neighborhood choice model has smaller coefficients and is less successful. The alternative specific constants play a much larger role in determining the choice probabilities for neighborhoods. The final model of mobility choice exhibits a good fit for all the household categories. The results provide overall support for the sequential modelling approach outlined in this paper.
Point-to-Point Migration Functions and Gravity Model Renormalization: Approaches to Aggregation in Spatial Interaction Modeling
Authors: Slater P B
Published: October 2006

Two distinct approaches to assessing the effect of geographic scale on spatial interactions are pursued. In the first, the question of whether a distance ( d) deterrence function, which explains interactions for one system of zones, can also succeed on a more aggregate scale, is examined. Only the two-parameter function, B0+ B1 d, ( B1 < 0, B0 > |B1|, 0 < d ≤ - B0 /B1) for which it is found that distances between macrozones are weighted averages of distances between component zones, is satisfactory in this regard. Estimation of continuous (point-to-point) functions—in the form of quadrivariate cubic polynomials—for US interstate migration streams, is then undertaken. Upon numerical integration, these (higher order) trend surfaces yield predictions of interzonal and intrazonal movements at any scale of interest. Tests of spatial stationarity, isotropy, and symmetry of interstate migration are conducted in this framework.
The Restructuring of Housing Provision in Britain and the Netherlands
Authors: Harloe M , Martens M
Published: October 2006

This paper is an examination of the impact of recent economic and political changes in the Netherlands and Britain on housing markets and policies in these two countries. Some of the key features of the current housing situation are outlined, with a focus on the growing problems of housing costs and accessibility and the policy and market responses to these problems. Some of the distinctive features of the social relations of housing provision in each country which underlie the differences in the two national situations are then examined. The paper concludes with a discussion of the future prospects for housing markets and policies in each case.
Interregional Labor Migration and Information Flows
Authors: Amrhein C G
Published: October 2006

Interregional labor migration occurs in response to the stress existing between a worker's existing condition and the expected condition perceived to exist in an alternative region. These perceptions are formed from information received through various channels. Three channels are examined: interpersonal communication, general source information, and specific source information targeted at unemployed workers. In this process, trajectories of welfare levels (composed of wage plus nonwage benefits), information flows, vacancy and unemployment levels are generated for different worker and job types, regional aggregates, and the system as a whole. The behavior of the model is examined by means of numerical simulations and sensitivity analyses.
Problems of Structural Adaptation in Old Industrial Areas: A Factor-Analytical Approach
Authors: Steiner M , Posch U
Published: October 2006

The paper is an exploration of the specific character of the so-called ‘old industrial areas’ within Austria. The starting point is the question of how to account for the changing fortunes of this type of region; they are interpreted as being in the final stage of their regional ‘life cycle’. By applying factor-analytical methods to differentiate the Austrian regional structure, it can be shown that there are distinctive differences in supply-side characteristics between regions. Centering on the analysis of old industrial districts, the findings confirm that these areas represent a special type of region; they can be described by a combination of variables which is common to them and not to other regions. The resulting combination of variables supports the hypothesis, based on aspects of the various regional growth theories, that the poor performance of old industrial areas stems from a lack of competitiveness and an inadequate flexibility in adjustment to change.
A Two-Stage Model for the Analysis of Intraurban Mobility Processes
Authors: Ament D C , van der Knaap G A
Published: October 2006

In this paper a model for small area migration forecasts is presented. It consists of two phases. In the first phase, movers and stayers are generated from the total population, according to move probabilities which depend on a number of characteristics of the population. A logit regression has been carried out to establish the influence of these characteristics on the move probabilities. The second phase of the model deals with the redistribution of the movers. In the last section of the paper some computational results will be given based on data for the City of Rotterdam.
Simulation of a Policy Aimed at the Reduction of Wood Use in the Sudan
Authors: Murck B W , Dufournaud C M , Whitney J B R
Published: October 2006

A rectangular economic input-output table for the Sudan is presented, based on nine sectors, thirty-seven commodities, six primary inputs, and seven final demand categories. Four possible models of intermediate consumption are derived by using linear programming and entropy maximizing. The table is then linked to a coefficient representing wood use per unit of output in the Sudanese economy. A policy aimed at a reduction in wood use is tested by simulating the introduction of more efficient charcoal stoves into urban households. Implementation of the policy would lead to a significant reduction in total wood used, from 88 km2 to 194 km2 per year, depending on which of the four models for intermediate consumption is utilized. Reallocation of the resulting savings by households into energyintensive commodities, however, reduces the effectiveness of the policy by as much as 48%.
Some Notes on Parallel Computing: With Special Reference to Transportation and Land-Use Modeling
Authors: Harris B
Published: October 2006

As a reponse to the suggestions of D E Boyce in a recent editorial in this journal these notes explore the use of supercomputers in the application of land-use and transportation, models. Several models are tested in a preliminary way but in some detail against several possible configurations of parallel computers.
Neighbourhood Perception, Preference, and Household Mobility in the Glasgow Private Housing Market
Authors: Munro M , Lamont D
Published: October 2006

There has been much discussion as to the validity and importance of a disaggregated framework for analysis in the housing market. This paper, with data from a recent survey in Glasgow, is an analysis, first, of the ways in which neighbourhoods are perceived and shows that residents have widely differing perceptions as to the extent and distinctive features of their own neighbourhood. Second, the importance of neighbourhoods in structuring the process of search in the housing market and residential mobility is demonstrated. The paper concludes with suggestions as to ways in which neighbourhoods ought to be incorporated into urban analyses.
Industrial Decline in a Local Economy: The Case of Coventry, 1974–1982
Authors: Healey M J , Clark D
Published: October 2006

The process of industrial decline in Coventry and the effects on the nature of industry in the city are revealed through an analysis both of net change in manufacturing employment and of the components of change between 1974 and 1982. The results are compared with those for other UK localities. Coventry has suffered far more from in situ decline of manufacturing establishments. It lost relatively few jobs through exits but gained relatively less from the indigenous growth and the in-movement of industry. The implications of these differences for explanations of urban change and for policy are discussed.
A Spectral Analysis of Building Cycles in Britain
Authors: Barras R , Ferguson D
Published: October 2006

In this paper are presented the results of the first phase of a project sponsored by the Economic and Social Research Council to analyse the incidence and causes of building cycles in Britain; five major sectors of construction are covered—private industrial, private commercial, private housing, public housing, and other public building. Spectral analysis, supplemented by turning point analysis, is used to identify the main postwar cycles in each sector, and to measure their relative phasing and severity, distinguishing short 4–5–year ‘demand cycles’ associated with the business cycles from longer ‘supply cycles’ of up to 9-years duration. As the different sectors of building are aggregated, these shorter cycles tend to be smoothed out, revealing a dominant postwar long swing in building activity. This is then compared with previous long swings in the pre-1914 and interwar periods, each of which is associated with successive waves of urbanisation in Britain since the mid-19th century.
A Note on Local Spending in the 1983 General Election: Differences between the Liberal and SDP Parties in England
Authors: Johnston R J
Published: October 2006

Information is an important ingredient in electoral success; a political party must sell itself to the voters to build up a core of support. This paper is a look at the role of local information in the first general election fought by a new political party in England, the Social Democratic Party. The party chose to spread its spending on information widely, but in places where the level of spending was relatively high—because central grants were boosted by local fund-raising—the electoral returns were significant. Local concentrations of information produced local concentrations of votes.
Modelling Rural Population Change in the Cilento Region of Southern Italy
Authors: White P E
Published: October 2006

Established models of rural population change generally depend upon settlement size and distance from a major town or city as explanatory variables. These models may have little relevance in Mediterranean environments where other factors are of greater significance. In the Italian district of the Cilento, multiple regression analysis showed the presence or absence of tourism to be most important in explaining rural population change between 1961 and 1971, with other important factors being the state of local access and the altitude of settlements. It is suggested that there are no universal explanations of rural population change but that a family of models may be put forward with each one relevant in a different cultural and developmental context.
Research Policy and Review 6. Future Directions for Environmental Policy
Authors: O'Riordan T
Published: October 2006

Environmentalism is an elusive concept with many meanings. In this paper its changing character is examined together with an analysis of how it is likely to influence public policy across a broad front. The major environmental issues which OECD countries are likely to face nationally, regionally, and globally over the next twenty years are reviewed and the type of politics that may emerge within the new environmentalism is discussed. The overriding global issues will be the tragic interconnection between poverty and environmental damage in the underdeveloped countries. In the developed but deindustrialising economies of the ‘North’, greatest attention will be placed on devising means for creating jobs and providing satisfying occupations for people forced out of a job or never in employment. Environmental rehabilitation can create jobs, but it will involve the denial of resources otherwise available to create jobs elsewhere. It will therefore be necessary to consider the ‘next job effectiveness’ of environmental policies. Another policy area that requires new thinking is the management of environmental hazards, notably how to dispose of toxic wastes in a manner acceptable to a majority of people. Finally, serious efforts will have to be made, not only to infuse environmental principles within all policy arenas, but also to ensure that departmental responsibilities and budgets are properly linked. The principle that those who exploit environmental resources should, by means of transfer taxes and payments, subsidise those who use environmental resources frugally and benignly should also become established.
A Unified Approach to the Construction of Algorithms for Optimising Population Allocation Using Spatial Interaction
Authors: Dubov Yu A , Imelbayev Sh S , Manukyan S A
Published: October 2006

Normative-behavioural models make it possible to form optimal strategies of urban development with due consideration of random and uncontrollable processes taking place in urban systems, as, for example, occurs with passenger flow distributions. Here a new approach to obtaining optimality conditions for such models is proposed. Corresponding optimisation algorithms are developed and their behaviour is studied.
A Statistical Model of a Multitrip Spatial-Interaction Pattern
Authors: Mazurkiewicz L
Published: October 2006

A multitrip spatial-interaction pattern is defined in the paper as the system of movements where every movement is composed of a chain of trips linking different places in space. A spatial interaction model with the distance decay function based on a random variable distribution is derived to describe this pattern.
A Stochastic Version of the Urban Retail Model
Authors: Vorst A C F
Published: October 2006

In this paper it is shown that if the consumers' scale economies parameter α in the urban retail model is less than one then the unique positive equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable. This is one of the reasons one might add a stochastic term to the model. This will be done in the paper.
Measuring Connectedness of input-output Models: 1. Survey of the Measures
Authors: Szyrmer J M
Published: October 2006

The concept of scalar measures of the degree of internal connectedness in input – output models is considered. These measures are believed to be important structural indicators, helpful in model estimation. They allow for a summary description and comparative analysis of various linear flow systems. Several measures drawn from the economic and ecological input – output literatures are examined. It is shown that none of the measures represent connectedness adequately.
Quasi-likelihood Estimation and Diagnostic Statistics for Spatial Interaction Models
Authors: Baxter M J
Published: October 2006

In calibrating many spatial interaction models it is well known that the entropy-maximising solution and estimates obtained by maximum likelihood, with the assumption that the flows are independent Poisson random variables, are the same. This assumption often underestimates the variation in the data. It is shown how estimation can be approached through the idea of quasi-likelihood, retaining many of the advantages of maximum likelihood, but allowing a more realistic assessment of model performance. In assessing model performance it is usually better to look at individual components of a fit, rather than global measures of performance. Some recent statistical work on diagnostic statistics for certain generalised linear models is introduced and illustrated using migration data given by Dorigo and Tobler.
Entropy Models with Entropy Constraints on Aggregated Events
Authors: Roy J R , Lesse P F
Published: October 2006

Most spatial models deal with a number of objects, such as segments of demand, as well as supply choices including houses, jobs, transport modes or routes, etc. A choice of or by any of these objects represents a probabilistic event (decision step). The problem is to determine the joint probability density for the collection of events. In this paper, the joint probability function is estimated using an extended entropy model, constrained by additional information on the entropy of aggregated events. The resulting models are compared with existing formulations, based either on entropy maximization or on utility maximization. It is also shown that models which are used for predicting demand can be generalized to allow for the dependence of demand on supply, allowing for nonhomogeneous zonal supply and supply – demand imbalances.
Research Policy and Review 7. Developments in Environment – Behaviour – Design Research: A Critical Assessment in the Context of Geography and Planning with Special Reference to the Third World
Authors: Chokor B A
Published: October 2006

Advances in researches in geography and planning both in developed and less developed countries have followed similar, if not the same, philosophical and methodological framework. More recently, however, a gap has been observed, with developments in humanistic geography and environment – behaviour – design research receiving no significant attention in countries of the developing areas. This paper highlights this highly neglected field of research in the developing world and articulates some of the reasons behind the neglect. The potential benefits for geography and environmental planning of researches drawing on this neglected theme are analyzed in the context of the developing world.
Judicial Adjudication and the Spatial Structure of Production: Two Decisions by the National Labor Relations Board
Authors: Johnston K
Published: October 2006

Two decisions by the National Labor Relations Board are analysed with regard to their spatial implications. It is shown that these decisions, issued in 1982 and 1984 with respect to the contract rights of labor and capital in a particular firm, can have fundamental effects on the spatial configuration of economic activity. The substantive ideological and legal arguments are analysed, as are the underlying conceptions of contract rights. Implications are also drawn about the importance of the legal perspective in understanding local labor-market patterns in the United States of America.
The Policy Context of the Welfare Debate
Authors: Jones J P , Kodras J E
Published: October 2006

This paper is an examination of whether welfare program use is more responsive to economic conditions of need or to characteristics of program supply. The results of an analysis of growth in a major US welfare program illustrate that these forces do not operate independently of one another. Instead, welfare participation dynamics reflect economic need only in those jurisdictions where the program is effectively supplied. The policy implications concern the spatially decentralized operation of public programs.
Industrial Location Models 1: A Review and an Integrating Framework
Authors: Birkin M , Wilson A G
Published: October 2006

A unified theoretical framework is applied to a broad range of alternative approaches to industrial location modelling. This framework provides a basis for the comparison of alternative assumptions employed by various location theorists. In a follow-up paper, these observations are used to construct a more general industrial location model from which many others may be derived as ‘special cases’.
Land Investment, Planning Permission, and Uncertainty: A State-Preference Analysis
Authors: Wiltshaw D G
Published: October 2006

The statutory planning system renders land a state-contingent resource; in addition, investment in land is likely to take place within a portfolio context. With this background, land investment is analysed specifically as a function of portfolio size, the riskless rate of return, the degree of risk aversity, the probability of planning permission, and the rates of development gain, nondevelopment loss, planning gain, and cost.
Dynamic Aspects of Environmental Damage in a Multisector Economy
Authors: Kitabatake Y , Nishioka S
Published: October 2006

The paper contains an analysis of dynamic aspects of environmental damage in an open multisector economy, where the factor intensity and the pollution intensity of each sector are different, and the stock of pollutants is assumed to affect adversely the total amount of one production factor. The paper clarifies the role of substitution relationships among production sectors as well as production factors in enlarging environmental damages as the consequence of the intertemporal maximization of gross regional product.
Structuration Theory in Urban Analysis: 1. Theoretical Exegesis
Authors: Moos A I , Dear M J
Published: October 2006

This is the first part of a two-part investigation of the utility of structuration theory in empirical analysis of the urban built environment. An exegesis of Giddens's structuration theory is presented (section 2), and its geographical applications are assessed (section 3). A reworking of the structuration model is subsequently developed (section 4), and the difficulties of applying it to empirical problems are discussed (section 5). Finally, in section 6, a model for analyzing the structuration of urban space is proposed. This model is subsequently employed in a companion paper.
An Integrated Land-Use—Transportation Model for the San Francisco Region: 1. Design and Mathematical Structure
Authors: Prastacos P
Published: October 2006

This is the first of two papers presenting the structure and the empirical estimation of a planning land-use—transportation model for the San Francisco Bay Area. The model is based on random utility theory and considers in an integrated way the location of urban economic activity and housing, and urban travel. The model is formulated as a nonlinear optimization problem and is shown to result in expressions which are consistent with behavior at the individual level.
Calibration Procedures and Problems of Stability in Nonlinear Dynamic Spatial Interaction Modeling
Authors: Lombardo S T , Rabino G A
Published: October 2006

The use of nonlinear dynamic spatial interaction models is one of the main approaches for the treatment of those phenomena of discontinuity and irreversibility which characterise the complexity of urban evolution. In this paper some methodological and operational problems which arise when a model of this kind, namely the Harris and Wilson model, is calibrated are dealt with. The main aspect of the calibration dealt with here is the problem of the separability of dynamics with different speeds (such as dynamics of stocks and dynamics of activities) when suitable data are lacking. It is shown, among other things, that a fundamental role is played by the intrinsic stability (or instability) of the equilibria of the model. The argument is illustrated by a set of simulations carried out on the Rome metropolitan area, relating to the retailing sector.
Structuration Theory in Urban Analysis: 2. Empirical Application
Authors: Dear M J , Moos A I
Published: October 2006

This paper is the second in a two-part investigation into the utility of structuration theory in urban analysis. The focus here is on an application of the theory to analyze the “ghettoization” of ex-psychiatric patients in the City of Hamilton. First, methodologies are developed for institutional analysis and for the analysis of strategic conduct, utilizing the concept of bracketing. Secondly, a structuration analysis is undertaken of the ex-patient ghetto. This requires an institutional analysis of the deinstitutionalization policy and of the process of ghettoization, and a focus on strategic conduct to explain local outcomes in the built environment. The empirical application of structuration theory provided methodological and practical insights, as well as requiring a substantial development of some theoretical constructs. We are satisfied that structuration theory has sufficient merit for empirical work to warrant continued development and assessment.
Immigration to Western Europe, 1952–1982: A Time-Series Analysis of Movement to Sweden, France, and Essen
Authors: O'Loughlin J
Published: October 2006

Two contradictory approaches—an equilibrium view based on neoclassical economic principles and a structuralist view based on labour needs of core economies—dominate contemporary international migration research. Using a monthly times-series for Essen, Sweden, and France for 1952–1982 of immigration by different nationalities, a specific hypothesis derived from the neoclassical view, relating immigration to economic growth and stagnation, was tested using the Box—Jenkins ARIMA modelling approach. The local labour market of Essen provided the only consistent support for the hypothesis. Most migration flows are described by complex ARIMA models. Immigration legislation had a stronger and more direct effect on the strength and timing of flows than economic trends. Predictions based on univariate and bivariate models are not very useful: immigration trends over the past decade are significantly different from earlier flows.
Modelling Hierarchical Destination Choice
Authors: Fotheringham A S
Published: October 2006

The production-constrained gravity formulation is shown to be an especially inaccurate specification of reality whenever the selection of destinations by individuals results from a hierarchical choice process. Hierarchical decisionmaking violates the Independence from Irrelevant Alternatives property embedded in the theoretical derivation of the production-constrained gravity model from choice axioms. Various aspects of gravity model misspecification resulting from hierarchical destination choice are investigated and an empirical example is given in terms of US migrants. A discussion is presented of several destination choice models that are more accurately specified than the gravity formulation when destination choice is hierarchical. The recently derived competing destinations formulation is shown to be amongst the most useful in this respect. The discussion is framed in the context of discrete choice theory.
Transport Network Equilibrium and Regional Deconcentration
Authors: Wegener M
Published: October 2006

Processes of urban and regional change can be classified in terms of their temporal characteristics as fast-adjusting, medium-response, or inert. Based on this classification, a modelling approach is presented that combines (1) a fast-adjusting equilibrium-type transport model, (2) a medium-response residential occupation (housing-market) model, and (3) a strongly lagged residential location (housing-construction) model. It is suggested that such a model structure takes better account of the range of temporal behaviour observed in metropolitan regions than modelling approaches directed at determining a simultaneous equilibrium of transport and location. With data of the Dortmund, West Germany, metropolitan region, the model is employed to demonstrate the role of the transport system in the process of regional deconcentration observed in that region.