bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Debt and Economic Growth in South Asia
Authors: Rehana Siddiqui  , Afia Malik
Published: August 2018

After 1980s, in most developing countries, the rate of debt accumulation and increase in debt servicing are highlighted as major factors affecting the growth rate of output. Most of these countries lost their competitiveness in the international market mainly as a result of insufficient exchange rate adjustments. In addition, the weakening of terms of trade, economic mismanagement and crisis of governance also lowered growth rates in the developing countries. The downward pressure was larger in the countries facing higher debt burden as these countries faced higher interest rates, decline in the external resource inflow, lower export earnings, lower domestic output and lower imports. In case of South Asian countries, the external debt scenario has changed over time. According to World Bank (2001) Pakistan’s ranking worsened to ‘severely-indebted low income country’ from ‘moderately-indebted low income country’ in 1997, where as India’s ranking improved to ‘less indebted low income’ country from ‘moderately indebted’ in 1997. The rapid accumulation of debt, rising repayment burden and the economically and politically resource inflow or rescheduling motivated rescheduling of debt (as in case of Pakistan) has raised concerns regarding the impact of debt on the growth process of the South Asian countries.
Growth and Poverty in Pakistan: Implications for Governance
Authors: Arshaed H. Bhatti
Published: August 2018

According to the Economic Surveys, Pakistan’s real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 6.8 percent in the 1960s, 4.8 percent in the 1970s, 6.5 percent in the 1980s and 4.7 percent in the 1990s. However, that did not seem to have mitigated poverty as parallel to this growth the number of poor also kept swelling. Although different estimates put number of poor in Pakistan around 50 million, the actual could be more [Ahmad (2001)]. The average growth rates in the first halfcentury of Pakistan have been around 2 percent [Hasan (1997)]. It is pertinent to state that this discussion paper is not an attempt to challenge the figures either of the growth rates or the numbers of the poor in Pakistan. This is rather an attempt to understand the correlation of governance with growth on one hand and poverty on the other. It offers conceptual analysis of the concepts and their respective interpretation, explanation, application and ensuing misunderstandings.
New Local Government System: A Step Towards Community Empowerment?
Authors: Zulqarnain Hussain Anjum
Published: August 2018

Failure of the central/provincial governments to adequately capture local preferences and provide basic services strengthened the case for a new local government system for delivery of public services along with the authority to impose fees, taxes, user charges, etc. to finance these services. The new System aims at transferring political, administrative and fiscal powers1 from higher tiers of the government to lower tiers (Figure 1) in order to bring governments closer to common citizens for greater accountability and better understanding of the needs and preferences of people. National Reconstruction Bureau (NRB) was entrusted the task of designing a local government system which presented its first blue print in the form of “Devolution Plan 2000”. As a result of this exercise a new Local Government System has been installed in Pakistan on 14th August 2001 after the promulgation of Local Government Ordinance 2001 by all the four Provinces. The new System comprises a District Government or a City District Government and Zila Council in a district, Tehsil Municipal Administration and Tehsil Council in a tehsil (a Town Municipal Administration and Town Council in a town in a city district) and Union Administration and Union Council in a union. Village/Neighbourhood councils provide an interface with the lowest tier of the Local Government (Union Administration) with the community.
External Market Conditions, Competitiveness, Diversification, and Pakistan’s Export Performance
Authors: Mohammad Akbar  , Zareen F. Naqvi
Published: August 2018

Pakistan’s exports evolve broadly in line with total world imports. Accordingly, Pakistan’s share in world imports was remarkably stable during the last 20 years, ranging between a minimum of 0.12 percent in 1980 and a maximum of 0.18 percent in 1992. In 1999-2000, the share was 0.15 percent. This would suggest that Pakistan’s export performance was not worse than that of the world on average. Compared to regional competitors, however, the performance was unimpressive, especially when compared to China and Thailand throughout the 1980s and 1990s or compared to Bangladesh, India, and Sri Lanka during the 1990s. All these countries succeeded in achieving sustainable market share increases in total world imports (Figure 1). In light of the growing awareness about the importance of exports in the overall economy of Pakistan and in view of the unimpressive export performance of Pakistan vis-à-vis other countries in the region it would be interesting to study the export performance of Pakistan and analyse the possible reasons for this poor performance and see whether it is due to demand deficiency or is it something to do with the supply side of the issue.
Determining Pak Rupee Exchange Rates vis-à-vis Six Currencies of the Industrial World: Some Evidence Based on the Traditional Flow Model
Authors: Razzaque H. Bhatti
Published: August 2018

Pak-rupee exchange rates vis-à-vis many currencies of the industrial world have weakened continuously and persistently since Pakistan abandoned fixed exchange rates in April 1982. This proposition is strongly supported by descriptive test statistics, as shown in Table 1, such as mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of six Pak rupee exchange rates—against the U.S. dollar, British pound, German mark, Japanese yen, Swiss franc and French franc—over the period 1982q1-2000q4. Based on these descriptive statistics, it is evident that Pak rupee has depreciated persistently against all currencies of the industrial countries in question over the period under investigation; for example, it has depreciated by 324.05 percent against the British pound, 406.360 percent against the U.S. dollar, 344.53 percent against the French franc, 498.48 percent against the Swiss franc, 477.78 percent against the German mark and 986.25 percent against the Japanese yen since April 1982. As evidenced by coefficient of variation, Pak rupee has weakened enormously against all currencies of the industrial world, while it has weakened relatively more alarmingly against the Japanese yen, Swiss franc and German mark.
Inaugural Address
Authors: Shaukat Aziz
Published: August 2018

Excellencies, Ladies and Gentlemen: The 17th Annual General Meeting of the Pakistan Society of Development Economists (PSDE) is taking place at a critical juncture of our economic history. The events of September 11 have changed the complexion of the global economy. Global economic prospects appear grim, at least, in the short-run. Developed and developing countries are witnessing their economic growth reduced or even turned negative owing to the slowdown in the global economy. Growth in international trade during 2001 may undergo one of the severest deceleration in modern times. As 2001 closed and a new year began some two weeks ago, the global economy is now balanced precariously between recession and recovery. Although the full impact of September 11 events is still to realised and evaluated, it has nevertheless, unleashed new and unpredictable forces that have substantially raised the risk of global downturn. Being the part of the global economy and that it has placed itself at the epicentre of global events, Pakistan has once again been thrust into the role of a front line state. Whatever happens to the global economy is bound to create temporary difficulties for Pakistan’s economy as well. But at the same time, Pakistan is also witnessing the openings of several opportunities to strengthen its economy. The challenge before us is two fold: how to minimise the loss caused by the temporary difficulties and how to position ourselves to translate the openings of opportunities into real gains for the country.
Debt, Growth, and Poverty in the International Monetary System (The Quaid-i-Azam Memorial Lecture)
Authors: Robert A. Mundell
Published: August 2018

This paper explores the relationship between debt, growth, and poverty and the international monetary system. With a well-functioning international monetary system, economic policy works well, instruments are assigned to targets appropriately, and discipline is maintained. The fixed exchange rate is contrasted with alternative monetary rules. The monetary rule is the weakest system; monetary targeting has failed in every country in which it has been tried. An advantage of the fixed exchange rate is the clue it provides to the price level, interest rate, and future monetary policy. Other things being equal, the use of a currencies basket is inferior to a single currency peg, while a freely floating exchange rate system puts itself at the mercy of speculators. The paper points out the conditions for a successful currency area as a consensus on a common inflation rate; a common basket of goods with which to measure inflation; exchange rate that must be locked; member countries must adopt a common monetary policy; and a formula must be devised for distributing and using the seigniorage profits from monetary expansion. There is a need to study the possibility of an Asian currency area and the links between the APEC and the SAARC. Regular and mutual surveillance on monetary, fiscal, and exchange rate convergence, and policies that minimise exchange rate uncertainty and work towards a currency club area based on a common anchor— initially the dollar—are needed. Setting up of an Asian Monetary Fund is also suggested, one that is closely modelled on the original IMF articles of agreement and will provide an anchored fixed exchange rate system.
Consumption Patterns of Major Food Items in Turkey
Authors: Huseyin Özer
Published: August 2018

Demand estimates for food not only provide information bases to characterise food demand structure, but also provide a complete and consistent framework to evaluate the impacts of policy changes, since both price policies and the human capital policies related to health and nutrition are closely related to the determination of expenditure (or income) elasticities. This study attempts to produce a complete set of expenditure and price elasticities based on the estimates of food demand parameters in Turkey. The Linear Expenditure System (LES) is estimated using the last available cross-section budget survey data. The estimates throw light on certain characteristics of Turkish household behaviour that has some consequences for government policies.
M. Ashraf Janjua. History of the State Bank of Pakistan (1978-1988). Karachi: State Bank of Pakistan. 2003. 790 pages. Hardback. Price not given.
Authors: A. R. Kemal
Published: August 2018

History of the State Bank of Pakistan (1978-1988) contains the major events relating to the real and financial sectors of the economy as well as a rich analysis of economic development in Pakistan. Although the book’s main focus is the 1977-88 period, it also traces the developments since Independence up to 1972 to put relevant decade in its proper perspective. As such, the book would help in better understanding of the economic reforms that have been undertaken since 1988. It is also an important contribution towards understanding the evolution of economic policies in Pakistan. There are twelve chapters relating to various aspects of growth in the real sectors; monetary policies and credit management; regulatory framework and prudent regulations; supervision of banks; exchange rate management; the State Bank and the government; role of the State Bank in economic development; Islamisation of banks; and management organisation and administration of the State Bank of Pakistan, followed by four appendices, a select bibliography, and an index.
Agricultural Productivity, Efficiency, and Rural Poverty in
Irrigated Pakistan: A Stochastic Production Frontier Analysis
Authors: Ahmad Munir
Published: August 2018

The main objective of this study is to estimate the input
elasticities of production for poor and non-poor farms. The study
estimates the stochastic frontier production function. The results show
that the elasticities of production differ for poor and non-poor farms.
The production elasticity of land is substantially higher on rich farms
as compared to the farms belonging to poor farmers. This implies higher
returns on investment on land by the rich farmers. The salinity/sodicity
problem and the tail-end location of the plot adversely affect farm
productivity and efficiency, particularly at the poor farms. Moreover,
the average cost of the existence of technical inefficiencies is about
43 percent in terms of loss in output, with wide variations across farms
ranging from 17 percent to 62 percent. The study further concludes that
the least efficient group is not only operating far below the frontier
but it also operates at the lower portion of the production frontier.
Consequently, increasing access to the inputs would likely raise
productivity and reduce poverty. The results imply that the land
distribution using the notion of land reforms in favour of poor/small
farmers in the presence of existing farm structure, rural
infrastructure, and the weak farm-supporting institutions is not
expected to raise farm productivity and reduce poverty among the poor
farmers. The results call for a strong and active role of the government
in close partnership with the private sector to initiate
income-generating activities and inputs supply chains in the rural areas
to break the nexus of poverty, land degradation, and low agricultural
productivity.
The Impact of Institutional Credit on Agricultural Production in Pakistan
Authors: Muhammad Iqbal  , Kalbe Abbas
Published: August 2018

Three main factors that contribute to agricultural growth are the increased use of agricultural inputs, technological change and technical efficiency. Technological change is the result of research and development efforts, while technical efficiency with which new technology is adopted and used more rationally is affected by the flow of information, better infrastructure, availability of funds and farmers’ managerial capabilities. Higher use and better mix of inputs also requires funds at the disposal of farmers. These funds could come either from farmers’ own savings or through borrowings. In less developed countries like Pakistan where savings are negligible especially among the small farmers, agricultural credit appears to be an essential input along with modern technology for higher productivity. Credit requirements of the farming sector have increased rapidly over the past few decades resulting from the rise in use of fertiliser, biocides, improved seeds and mechanisation, and hike in their prices. The agricultural credit system of Pakistan consists of informal and formal sources of credit supply. The informal sources include friends, relatives, commission agents, traders and private moneylenders etc. Presently, the formal credit sources are comprised of financial institutions like Zarai Taraqiati Bank Limited (ZTBL)—formerly known as Agricultural Development Bank of Pakistan (ADBP), Commercial Banks, and Federal Bank for Cooperatives. Recently, some non-government organisations (NGOs) are also advancing agricultural credit to the rural communities.
The Relationship between the WES Interventions and the Incidence of Diarrhoea
Authors: Syed Mubashir Ali  , Rizwan Ul-haq
Published: August 2018

Access to clean drinking water and sanitation facilities have a direct positive impact on health through prevention of water-borne diseases, especially diarrhoeal morbidity of children. Lack of WES (Water and Environmental Sanitation) services and poor hygiene practices in Pakistan contribute significantly to the prevalence of diarrhoea, a major cause of infant death and children less than five years of age. The estimates show that about 30 percent of total deaths among children are attributed to diarrhoeal disease [Gallup (2001); UNICEF (2000)], and 4.1 years in life expectancy can be added if water borne diseases are eliminated [Ali and Haq (2003)]. Hence, reduction of diarrhoeal morbidity stands out as an important policy goal, which can ultimately lead to reduction in infant/child mortality. In this paper, we shall examine the relationship of WES interventions with that of the incidence of diarrhoea among children under age 10.
Adolescent Reproductive Health: The Role of Agency and Autonomy
Authors: Azeema Faizunnisa
Published: August 2018

The world is experiencing the largest cohort of adolescents in its history, and there are about 1 billion youngsters in this age group, most of whom belong to the developing countries. Worldwide, the adolescent age group is gaining prominence for researchers, policy-makers and donors. This issue is more important for Pakistan where about one-third of 150 million Pakistanis are in the age range of 10-24 years [Pakistan Census Organisation (2001)]. In Pakistan, the fertility transition has just begun [Sathar and Casterline (1998)], and we will have the largest cohort of young people in next five years. With a TFR of 4.1 which represents a significant decline in fertility in the past two decades for about two children [Pakistan (2003)], still we have a large population base. Nearly 33 percent of the population is aged 10-24, and ready to enter marriage and childbearing. Adolescents represents as a “bulge” in the population pyramid of Pakistan that will have serious implications at a variety of levels.
Utilising the Surging Potential of E-commerce: A Case of Hour Glass Supply Chain
Authors: Adeel Ghayur
Published: August 2018

Decade of nineties saw two significant developments with far reaching implications; bringing down of iron curtain and the exponential growth of “Internet”. However, the impact of the latter has been phenomenal. It would not be wrong to say that Internet has redesigned the way we live and undertake economic activities. Ever since the launch of Windows 95 and Intel Pentium chip, the Internet has grown at an exponential rate, never witnessed before in any industry. At the turn of the century as many as 387 million people were hooked to Internet [UNCTAD (2003), p. 2]. As this bubble of Internet expanded, it started engulfing every aspect of life and business. The sheer difference of processes on Internet resulted in new terms as e-commerce and e-business to be coined up. In five years since 1995, Internet grew from simple information searching to controlling under sea robots. The biggest market penetration however, has been online retail stores and business to business (B2B) commerce. Online shopping has its potential because of its easy access by the customers and B2B commerce has its attraction in the savings achieved by implementing e-processes. Another advantage of doing business on Internet is the audit trail, with which any dubious transactions, from anywhere in the world could be traced back to its originator.
The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan: an Empirical Investigation
Authors: Zahir Shah  , Qazi Masood Ahmed
Published: August 2018

The changing modes of international transactions and the cross-border mobilisation of factor resources, in pursuance of transnational production, constitute new dimensions for sustained economic growth. Foreign Direct Investment (an influential element of this process) is defined as the source of acquisition of managerial control by a business enterprise of a foreign country over a business activity in a host country [Graham (1982)]. The changing perceptions and more attractive policies of the host developing nations have changed the destinations of FDI flows from industrially developed countries to high growth developing centres. FDI stock held by developing countries has risen from $ 132.95 billion in 1980 to $ 1438.48 billion in 1999. Their share in inward stock has reached to 30.14 percent in 1999 as against 26.2 percent in 1980. FDI inflows during this period were raised from $ 4.42 billion to $ 208.0 billion, at an annual growth rate of 22.5 percent while GDP growth rate for that period was 3.9 percent.
The Determinants of Student Achievement in Government and Private Schools in Pakistan
Authors: Monazza Aslam
Published: August 2018

This study is driven by some fundamental issues evolving in Pakistan’s educational set-up. In the past few decades, the country has been experiencing what can only be termed a dramatic revolution in education provision. There has been an explosion of private schooling mostly at the primary but at higher levels as well and, somewhat surprisingly, private schooling cannot be relegated the status of an urban èlite phenomenon alone [Andrabi, et al. (2002)]. This has taken the form of many poor households and those in rural areas opting to send their children to fee-paying private schools rather than the non-fee charging government schools. This transformation of the education sector has generated many concerns among which the ‘equity’ issue has been raised to the fore. The unprecedented growth of cheap private schooling has also raised questions regarding the role of these institutions in the delivery of education, the question of parental ‘choice’1 as well as the future of government educational policy.
Monitoring and Evaluation: Civil Society Organisations’ Competitive Edge in Effective Poverty Alleviation
Authors: Khadija khan  , Arshad Waheed  , Saadia Iqbal
Published: August 2018

The role of Civil Society Organisations as preferred partners in development is strongly emerging across the globe. Among many reasons, one is reasonably good governance. The social sector has shown the acumen to learn and apply corporate management practices and international standards fast enough to start leading the competition. Notwithstanding the fact that a large part of development funding under soft loans and grants is channeled to the government, the CSOs receive a significant share directly and indirectly to implement development projects in communities. It has opened tremendous opportunities for CSOs to experiment and evolve new approaches in project management, community organisation, service delivery, product development, resource mobilisation and financial management. What makes the civil society organisations different from the public sector organisations? Fundamentally two things; these are non-governmental and nonprofit. However, the real difference is in the way civil society organisations are managed. It includes leadership, commitment, professionalism, systems and practices, thrust of work and most of all performance.
Openness, Institutions, and Policies: Determinants of Globalisation and Economic Growth in Developing Countries(Distinguished Lecture)
Authors: Rolf Kappel
Published: August 2018

Globalisation describes the increasing integration of national economies through international trade, capital transfers, and the exchange of information or knowledge. This paper focuses exclusively on trade integration. Most economists hold that reducing trade barriers has a decisive positive effect on economic growth and poverty reduction (“openness hypothesis”). However, some economists diagnose deficient or weakly enforced non-market institutions as the major cause of slow growth. The main goal of this paper is to show that these two seemingly contrary points of view do not exclude each other. Openness is not only influenced by trade policy but also by other policies and the quality of institutions. Available data show a high negative correlation between the logarithm of tariff rates and indicators of the quality of institutions. Cross-national growth regressions demonstrate that the explanatory power of trade protection and a combined measure of openness, on the one hand, and institutional quality, on the other hand, is comparable. Therefore, it is concluded that liberal trade policies are recommendable, but must be complemented by sound macroeconomic management, micro-policy to strengthen domestic competition, and institutional improvements.
Pro-poor Growth: Concepts and Measurement with Country Case
Studies (Distinguished Lecture)
Authors: Kakwani Nanak , Son Hyun H.
Published: August 2018

This paper looks into the interrelation between economic
growth, inequality, and poverty. Using the notion of pro-poor growth, we
examine the extent to which the poor benefit from economic growth.
First, various approaches to defining and measuring propoor growth are
scrutinised using a variety of criteria. It is argued that the
satisfaction of a monotonicity axiom is a key criterion for measuring
pro-poor growth. The monotonicity axiom sets out a condition that the
proportional reduction in poverty is a monotonically increasing function
of the pro-poor growth measure. The paper proposes a pro-poor growth
measure that satisfies the monotonicity criterion. This measure is
called a ‘poverty equivalent growth rate’, which takes into account both
the magnitude of growth and how the benefits of growth are distributed
to the poor and the non-poor. As the new measure satisfies the criterion
of monotonicity, it is indicative that to achieve rapid poverty
reduction, the poverty equivalent growth rate—rather than the actual
growth rate—ought to be maximised. The methodology developed in the
paper is then applied to three Asian countries, namely, the Republic of
Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam.
Noriyuki Takayama (ed). Pensions in Asia: Incentives, Compliance
and Their Role in Retirement. Tokyo: Maruzen Co. Ltd. 2005. 256 Pages.
Hardbound. Price not given.
Authors: Mahmood Naushin
Published: August 2018

In view of the rapid ageing of population in many Asian
countries due to a longer life expectancy and a fast decline in
fertility, the concerns about the sustainability of public pensions and
social security systems have gained increased relevance both at policy
and planning levels. Countries that have already experienced demographic
transition and indicate rising trends in old-age dependency rates are
facing a challenging situation not only to improve their pension systems
but also to comply with the financing of retirement and old-age benefit
schemes. The effects of an ageing population in these countries are
becoming apparent in terms of increasing costs of the health-care
system, social security schemes, and changing social attitudes towards
older people that demand an assessment of the support base to meet their
socio-economic needs.
Deepa Narayan (ed.). Measuring Empowerment: Cross-Disciplinary Perspectives. Washington, D.C.: The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank, 2005. Pages xx+475. Paperback. Price not given.
Authors: Faheem Jehangir Khan
Published: August 2018

‘Empowerment’ has different meanings in different sociocultural and political contexts, and does not translate easily into all languages. Choosing indicators for measuring empowerment, therefore, depends on the social, economic, political, and cultural environment of the target population, and this multi-dimensional nature of empowerment complicates issues of measurement. This book brings forth the different indicators of empowerment in a cross-disciplinary perspective, underlining the challenge of evaluating empowerment and its contribution to development effectiveness and outcome.
The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan
Authors: Anjum Aqeel  , Mohammed Nishat
Published: August 2018

The significance of foreign direct investment (FDI) flows is well documented in literature for both the developing and developed countries. Over the last decade foreign direct investment have grown at least twice as rapidly as trade Meyer, (2003). As there is shortage of capital in the developing countries, which need capital for their development process, the marginal productivity of capital is higher in these countries. On the other hand investors in the developed world seek high returns for their capital. Hence there is a mutual benefit in the international movement of capital.
Saving-investment Behaviour in Pakistan: An Empirical Investigation
Authors: Shahbaz Nasir
Published: August 2018

Saving and investment are two key macro variables with micro foundations which can play a significant role in economic growth, inflation stability and promotion of employment especially if seen in the context of a developing country. For self-reliance and growth objectives, mobilisation of domestic resources and their efficient utilisation are the two major policy oriented focuses today [Khan (1993)]. National savings are critically important to help maintain a higher level of investment which is a key determinant for economic uplift. Thereby, necessitating the analysis of saving-investment behaviour and its determinants for policy implications; this is a demanding area because of continuing debate on the potential role of their determinants.
Estimating Long-run Trade Elasticities in Pakistan: A Cointegration Approach
Authors: Muhammad Afzal
Published: August 2018

The effects of devaluation or depreciation on the trade balance of a country are usually examined by the Marshall-Lerner [ML] condition, which states that if the sum of the absolute values of imports and exports demand price elasticities is greater than one, devaluation is expected to improve the trade balance of a country. Some Structural Adjustment Reforms were started with the help of IMF and World Bank in 1982-83 with the objective of improving the efficiency of the economy by increasing the role of the private sector. The reforms included the delinking of the Rupee from US dollar in January 1982, price deregulation of a large number of products, denationalisation of industry, imports liberalisation and export expansion [Khan (1994)]. The successive governments have taken a number of steps to pursue an extensive liberalisation of the trade regime in addition to taking a number of export measures. Exchange and payment reforms were also implemented [Pakistan (1991-92)].
Volatility of Exchange Rate and Export Growth in Pakistan: The Structure and Interdependence in Regional Markets
Authors: Khalid Mustafa
Published: August 2018

Pakistan follows the flexible exchange rate system since July 2000. Prior to this period it followed a managed floating exchange rate since 1982 and a fixed rate prior to 1982. Due to controlled exchange rate a little fluctuation in exchange rate was observed. It is empirical concluded that the Pakistan’s share of exports in world market did not indicate any significant change during fixed and managed floating exchange rate regimes [Kumar and Dhawan (1991)]. Pakistan’s share in world exports was stable during the last 24 years, ranging between a minimum of 0.12 percent in 1980 and a maximum of 0.18 percent in 1992. After introduction of floating exchange rate during 2002-2003 (the share was 0.17 percent) Pakistan’s exports performance was related to the volatility of exchange rate. Only one empirical study is available regarding to Pakistan’s context by Kumar and Dhawan (1991) who estimated the impact of exchange rate volatility on Pakistan exports to the developed world from 1974 to 1985. They found that volatility of exchange rate adversely effect on export demand. They also investigated the third country effect and suggested that Japan and West Germany act as the alternate market for Pakistan’s export to the United States and United Kingdom. The high degree of volatility and uncertainty of exchange movements observed in Pakistan is of great concern of policy-makers and researchers to investigate the nature and extent of the impact of such movements on Pakistan’s volume of trade. In many countries it is experienced that higher exchange rate volatility reduced the trade by creating uncertainty about future profit from exports.
Exchange Rate Behaviour after Recent Float: The Experience of Pakistan
Authors: A. R. Kemal  , Rana Murad Haider
Published: August 2018

Exchange rate is a price of traded goods in the world market. To maintain the commodities competitive in the market, exchange rate should be adjusted according to the change in prices. If it is adjusted accordingly, then we say that purchasing power parity (PPP) holds in that country. However, phenomenon of PPP is completely kicked out under floating exchange rate regime in the short run [see for example, Rogoff (1999); Mark and Choi (1997); MacDonald (1999); Obstfeld and Taylor (1997); Coleman (1995); O’Connel (1998) and Michael, et al. (1997)]. Recent statement by the President of the National Bank of Pakistan, that the exchange rate and the interest rate are two faces of the same coin [Bokhari (2004)], shows that the changes in the exchange rate is strongly associated with the changes in the interest rate differential.1 It is also argued that under free float the value of currency is determined by demand and supply of foreign exchange and to control the value of currency using open market operations interest rate is used as the key monetary policy tool. Moreover, deterioration of trade balance leads to deprecation in exchange to make the exports competitive in the market and vice versa.
Regional Economic Integration in South Asia: The Way
Forward
Authors: Din Musleh-ud , Nasir Shahbaz
Published: August 2018

Like many developing economies, the South Asian countries are
opening-up their economies with a view to accelerating their economic
growth through greater trade and investment. In this context, attempts
have also been made to encourage regional trade under the aegis of the
South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). In particular,
the South Asian Preferential Trade Agreement (SAPTA) provides for
reductions in tariffs and other restrictions on specific commodities on
a reciprocal basis, and the eventual objective is to integrate the South
Asian economies into a free trade area through SAFTA, which would come
into force on January 1, 2006. However, despite greater attention on
regional economic cooperation initiatives, there has been little
progress in regional trade expansion: intra-regional trade continues to
be minimal, not exceeding 5 percent of the total trade of the South
Asian economies. This paper highlights the importance of regional
economic integration in South Asia as elsewhere, spells out the factors
which have so far hampered economic cooperation in the region, and
outlines a future course of action to achieve greater economic
integration in South Asia. Section 2 provides a broad perspective on
regional economic integration with a particular focus on the need to
foster greater economic cooperation in South Asia. Section 3 discusses
the factors that have impeded intra-regional trade and economic ties
within the region. Section 4 spells out measures to enhance economic
cooperation in the SAARC region, while Section 5 concludes the
discussion.
The Changing Transitions to Adulthood in a Comparative Perspective: the Case of Pakistan (Distinguished Lecture)
Authors: Cynthia B. Lloyd
Published: August 2018

The paper compares and contrasts the situation of young people in Pakistan with broader global trends drawing on data from both the recent US National Research Council report, Growing up Global: the Changing Transitions to Adulthood in Developing Countries, and from the national survey of adolescents and youth in Pakistan (AYP) 18 months earlier [Sathar, et al. (2003)]. The paper begins with some demographic background, and a discussion of how recent trends in schooling in Pakistan compare with broader trends in all developing countries as a group as well as in South Asia. It then follows the broad outlines of the National Research Council’s report in exploring transitions to adult work and family roles in a comparative perspective. The concluding section of the paper draws on the NRC panel’s programme and policy recommendations which were developed after a careful review of lessons learned from recent policy research and programme intervention research from around the world, all of which are relevant in some form in the Pakistani context.
Reproductive Tract Infections among Women in Pakistan: An Urban Case Study
Authors: Durr-e-Nayab
Published: August 2018

Reproductive tract infections (RTIs) among women—despite being common and having grave consequences—are not given much attention by policy-makers and health planners. The asymptomatic nature of most infections makes their detection and diagnosis difficult, making laboratory testing the most accurate method of bio-medical diagnosis. The present paper assesses the magnitude and nature of infections as diagnosed through laboratory testing and looks into the variation in magnitude and the nature of RTIs among women with different socio-economic and demographic characteristics. The aetiological rate of infection among women is found to be 24 percent, with the majority of these women testing positive for endogenous infections. Factors significantly increasing the likelihood of having an infection include intrauterine device use or getting a tubectomy, short inter-pregnancy intervals, and lower economic status of women.
The Public and Private Sector Pay Gap in Pakistan: A Quantile Regression Analysis
Authors: Asma Hyder  , Barry Reilly
Published: August 2018

This paper examines the magnitude of public/private wage differentials in Pakistan using data drawn from the 2001-02 Pakistan Labour Force Survey. As in many other countries, public sector workers in Pakistan tend both to have higher average pay and education levels as compared to their private sector counterparts. In addition, the public sector in Pakistan has both a more compressed wage distribution and a smaller gender pay gap than that prevailing in the private sector. Our empirical analysis suggests that about two-fifths of the raw differential in average hourly wages between the two sectors is accounted for by differentials in average characteristics. The estimated public sector mark-up, ceteris paribus, is of the order of 49 percent and is substantial by the standards of developed economies. The quantile regression estimates suggest that the mark-up was found to decline monotonically with movement up the conditional wage distribution. In particular, the premium at the 10th percentile was estimated at 92 percent as compared to a more modest 20 percent at the 90th percentile.
An Empirical Analysis of the Linder Theory of International Trade for South Asian Countries.
Authors: Syed Adnan Haider Ali Shah Bukhari  , Mohsin Hassnain Ahmad  , Shaista Alam  , Syeda Sonia Haider Ali Shah Bukhari  , Muhammad Shabihuddin Butt
Published: August 2018

This paper presents empirical evidence in support of the Linder theory of international trade for three of the South Asian countries, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan. This finding implies that these countries trade more intensively with countries of other regions, which may have similar per capita income levels, as predicted by Linder in his hypothesis. The contribution of this research is threefold: first, there is new information on the Linder hypothesis by focusing on South Asian countries; second, this is one of very few analyses to capture both time-series and cross-section elements of the trade relationship by employing a panel data set; third, the empirical methodology used in this analysis corrects a major shortcoming in the existing literature by using a censored dependent variable in estimation.
David A. Robalino, et al. (eds.). Pensions in the Middle East and North Africa: Time for Change. Washington, D. C.: The World Bank, 2005. pp.xxviii+253. Price not given.
Authors: Hasan Muhammad Mohsin
Published: August 2018

This report by David A. Robalino, et al. on Pensions in the Middle East and North Africa: Time for Change evaluates the current mandatory pension systems formulated in the 1970s in the region. Since the publication of Boersch-Supan Palacios and Tumbarello (1999), cited in the volume, the Word Bank has been providing technical assistance to the countries of the region in the area of pension reforms. According to Schwarz and Demirguc-Kunt (1999), also cited in the volume, more than 60 countries have introduced pension reforms in the last 20 years. The financial problems and the fiscal burden of these generous schemes was the common motivation for the reforms undertaken. The present book by David Robalino and his co-authors is the extension of those previous works published five years ago.
Strategic Directions for Developing an Islamic Banking System
Authors: Suleman Aziz Lodhi
Published: August 2018

Islamic banking generally referred to as interest free banking has been gaining popularity in the recent past. The main pillar of Islamic finance is prohibition of interest. Unlike conventional banking where interest is an integral part of the banking system, Islamic banking avoids interest in all bank transactions [Samad and Hassan (1999)]. The banking system in Pakistan is undergoing a transition from conventional model of banking to the new concept of Islamic banking, based on principles of Islamic economics. The new system should not only eliminate interestbased transactions but also introduce the concept of “Zakah” a contribution to the poor [Molla, et al. (1988)]. The prohibition of Riba is based on the arguments of social justice and equality.
Pro-poor Growth and Governance in South Asia—Decentralisation and Participatory Development
Authors: Ponna Wignaraja
Published: August 2018

The launch of the SAPNA study “Pro-poor Growth and Governance in South Asia: Decentralisation and Participatory Development”, during the 21st Annual Conference of the Pakistan Society for Development Economics was most fortunate. The presence of Minister Daniyal Aziz in the Chair was not accidental. When the Prime Minister of Pakistan visited Sri Lanka recently, he was presented with a copy. He immediately saw in this Pro Poor Growth Strategy, the link between Pakistan’s attempt at decentralisation reforms to deepen political democratic processes and the need for a more balanced growth path, which could also result in greater economic democracy. He suggested that Minister Aziz chair this session and evolve a more holistic conceptual framework to guide his own work in the National Reconstruction Bureau.
An Analysis of Exports and Growth in Pakistan
Authors: Muhammad A. Quddus
Published: August 2018

Trade is presumed to act as a catalyst of economic growth and the growth in exports leads to increase in the incomes of factors of production, which in turn increases the demand for input for further expansion in production. The resultant pressure on domestic capacity may stimulate technological change and investment opportunities. Also increase in demand due to raising incomes of the factors of production on account of exports may spill over into other sectors of the economy. A part of such growths could also be diffused abroad through technical assistance and aid. According to Emery (1967) empirically proved that higher rates of exports growth leads to higher economic growth. Traditionally, a developing country had the choice of two alternative trade strategies for supporting industrial development, export promotion or import substitution. A consensus has emerged among many development economists that an export expansion policy by permitting resource exploitation according to comparative advantage and by allowing for utilisation and exploitation of economies of scale leads to higher growth rates of output and employment, greater technological progress and availability of foreign exchange. These in turn enable the countries with export oriented policies to attain higher rates of growth of GNP vis-à-vis countries following import substituting industrialisation [Donges and Muller-Ohlsen (1978)].
Inaugural Address
Authors: Shaukat Aziz
Published: August 2018

It is a real privilege to be in the midst of such an august gathering for the fourth time in six years. Last night as I was preparing my remarks to come here I could not help but think about my first interaction in this very hotel in Islamabad six years ago. It was the 15th AGM of PSDE where in November 1999, I had been in the office for a few weeks, I took this opportunity to present a road map to this very audience. We have come a long way since November 1999. As I reflected last night, six years ago it was a very daunting, exciting and a very stimulating thought process. Six years ago the country was faced with many challenges. Today, we are also faced with challenges but different challenges. Six years ago we were in crisis management rather then economic management. Today we are in a different plane and heading towards a different destination. In my remarks six years ago I talked about the need for good governance, the need for structural reforms and the need for raising the quality of people we have engaged, i.e., increasing the human capital of the country and improving it. I do not want to spend too much time on where we were six years ago except to say that the country was in a debt trap, and we were living from crisis to crisis. We were in a balance of payment situation where the situation was precarious, our credit rating was off the charts, creditors were chasing us to be paid. I remember entering the MoF office every morning and suppliers, mostly foreigners, chasing us as to when we will be paid. So we were in technical default and so on and so forth. The fund programme was going from tranche to tranche. Why did a sovereign state of 150 million people end up the way it did six years ago and we still have a lot of work to do. We also had issues like IPP’s impacting the investment climate in the country. We had a lot of litigation going as a result the deficits were huge and growing. Overall situation look challenging. At that time I had talked about the need for reforms.
The Green Revolution and the Gene Revolution in Pakistan: Policy Implications (The Quaid-i-Azam Memorial Lecture)
Authors: Robert E. Evenson
Published: August 2018

Pakistan achieved high levels of Green Revolution Modern Variety (GRMV) adoption in the Green Revolution. Pakistan out-performed India and Bangladesh in the Green Revolution. Only China, among major countries, out-performed Pakistan in the Green Revolution. Pakistan does not have the food safety and environmental risk studies in place to support a regulatory environment for biotechnology. In effect, Pakistan is following the “precautionary principle” and applying it to science policy. This paper argues that this is a mistake. Pakistan is paying a “double penalty” for its inability to develop the regulatory systems required to take advantage of genetically modified (GM) crops. Not only does it lose the cost reductions enabled by GM crops, but because other countries have adopted GM crops, world prices are lower as a result and affect Pakistan’s export crops.
Does Education Abroad Help to Alleviate Poverty at Home? An Assessment (Distinguished Lecture)
Authors: Christopher Colclough
Published: August 2018

Flows of students abroad are increasing rapidly, encouraged by globalisation pressures, by declining quality of university provision in some of the poorest states and by the income needs of northern universities. Students from developing countries are increasingly self-financed, from middle-income countries and from richer families across all countries. The paper argues that both the direct and indirect impacts of these trends on poverty in sending states are likely to be negative. Some increased influence on home policy-formation by the overseas Indian and Chinese diaspora, and increased flows of return migrants to high-growth states in response to targeted recruitment incentives, provide evidence for countervailing tendencies. But for most developing countries, where economic growth is less dynamic, net benefits of international education for poverty alleviation remain unrealised.