bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
AFM1 Detection in Milk by Fab’ Functionalized Si3N4 Asymmetric Mach–Zehnder Interferometric Biosensors
Authors: Chalyan Tatevik , Potrich Cristina , Schreuder Erik , Falke Floris , Pasquardini Laura , Pederzolli Cecilia , Heideman Rene , Pavesi Lorenzo
Published: July 2019

Aflatoxins (AF) are naturally occurring mycotoxins, produced by many species of Aspergillus. Among aflatoxins, Aflatoxin M1 (AFM1) is one of the most frequent and dangerous for human health. The acceptable maximum level of AFM1 in milk according to EU regulation is 50 ppt, equivalent to 152 pM, and 25 ppt, equivalent to 76 pM, for adults and infants, respectively. Here, we study a photonic biosensor based on Si 3 N 4 asymmetric Mach–Zehnder Interferometers (aMZI) functionalized with Fab’ for AFM1 detection in milk samples (eluates). The minimum concentration of AFM1 detected by our aMZI sensors is 48 pM (16.8 pg/mL) in purified and concentrated milk samples. Moreover, the real-time detection of the ligand-analyte binding enables the study of the kinetics of the reaction. We measured the kinetic rate constants of the Fab’-AFM1 interaction.
Aflatoxin Binders in Foods for Human Consumption—Can This be Promoted Safely and Ethically?
Authors: Ahlberg Sara , Randolph Delia , Okoth Sheila , Lindahl Johanna
Published: July 2019

Aflatoxins continue to be a food safety problem globally, especially in developing regions. A significant amount of effort and resources have been invested in an attempt to control aflatoxins. However, these efforts have not substantially decreased the prevalence nor the dietary exposure to aflatoxins in developing countries. One approach to aflatoxin control is the use of binding agents in foods, and lactic acid bacteria (LAB) have been studied extensively for this purpose. However, when assessing the results comprehensively and reviewing the practicality and ethics of use, risks are evident, and concerns arise. In conclusion, our review suggests that there are too many issues with using LAB for aflatoxin binding for it to be safely promoted. Arguably, using binders in human food might even worsen food safety in the longer term.
Multiverse Predictions for Habitability: Fraction of Planets that Develop Life
Authors: Sandora McCullen
Published: July 2019

In a multiverse context, determining the probability of being in our particular universe depends on estimating its overall habitability compared to other universes with different values of the fundamental constants. One of the most important factors in determining this is the fraction of planets that actually develop life, and how this depends on planetary conditions. Many proposed possibilities for this are incompatible with the multiverse: if the emergence of life depends on the lifetime of its host star, the size of the habitable planet, or the amount of material processed, the chances of being in our universe would be very low. If the emergence of life depends on the entropy absorbed by the planet, however, our position in this universe is very natural. Several proposed models for the subsequent development of life, including the hard step model and several planetary oxygenation models, are also shown to be incompatible with the multiverse. If any of these are observed to play a large role in determining the distribution of life throughout our universe, the multiverse hypothesis will be ruled out to high significance.
Anthropic Selection of Physical Constants, Quantum Entanglement, and the Multiverse Falsifiability
Authors: Da̧browski Mariusz P.
Published: July 2019

This paper evaluates some important aspects of the multiverse concept. Firstly, the most realistic opportunity for it which is the spacetime variability of the physical constants and may deliver worlds with different physics, hopefully fulfilling the conditions of the anthropic principles. Then, more esoteric versions of the multiverse being the realisation of some abstract mathematics or even logic (cf. paper by M. Heller in this volume). Finally, it evaluates the big challenge of getting any signal from “other universes” using recent achievements of the quantum theory.
Urban Sustainability and the SDGs: A Nordic Perspective and Opportunity for Integration
Authors: Terama Emma , Peltomaa Juha , Mattinen-Yuryev Maija , Nissinen Ari
Published: July 2019

Urban sustainability has been used to cover multiple aspects of urban development. Terms related to sustainability have been generously used to advance ubiquitous and hard-to-measure targets not least in response to global and national sustainable development (SD) targets. However, ad-hoc and governed urbanization processes differ. In addition to different development pathways, local differences in interpretation of sustainability exist. This renders a global urban sustainability discourse disconnected from local practice. In this paper we focus on the Nordic cities, combining what is known about the similarities of the cities and societies, their recent development and highlights. Comparing with the global sustainability discourse spearheaded by the UN development goals (SDGs) we analyze the potential links in Nordic urban development to the global aims, as well as the local action taken via ex-ante review and assessment. With increasing demands for transformative change in urban planning and other institutions due to environmental, social and economic challenges, we demonstrate where strengthening the urban sustainability agenda is particularly needed. Findings show surprisingly little focus on socially just and cross-thematic development pre-SDGs, while it is expected that the dominant technocratic focus will give way to these other aspects necessary to address sustainability under the current SDG framework.
Over- and Under-Estimation of Travel Time on Commute Trips: GPS vs. Self-Reporting
Authors: Carrion Carlos , Levinson David
Published: July 2019

The underlying structure of road networks (e.g., circuity, relative discontinuity) contributes to the travel time perception of travelers. This study considers additional factors (e.g., arrival flexibility, access to traffic information) and tests nonlinearities linking perception of travel time. These factors are linked to four categories according to time perception research in psychology: temporal relevance, temporal uncertainty, and temporal expectancies; task complexity, absorption, and attentional deployment; and affective elements. This study estimates the relationship on data collected from commuters recruited from a previous GPS-based study in the Minneapolis-St. Paul region consisting of trips from home to work and back. For these work trips, the subjects’ self-reported travel times and the subjects’ travel times measured by GPS devices were collected. The results indicate that nonlinearities are present for road network attributes. Furthermore, the additional factors (e.g., arrival flexibility, access to traffic information) influence the travel time perception of travelers.
A Lineage of Begomoviruses Encode Rep and AC4 Proteins of Enigmatic Ancestry: Hints on the Evolution of Geminiviruses in the New World
Authors: Torres-Herrera Sandra Iliana , Romero-Osorio Angélica , Moreno-Valenzuela Oscar , Pastor-Palacios Guillermo , Cardenas-Conejo Yair , Ramírez-Prado Jorge H. , Riego-Ruiz Lina , Minero-García Yereni , Ambriz-Granados Salvador , Argüello-Astorga Gerardo R.
Published: July 2019

The begomoviruses (BGVs) are plant pathogens that evolved in the Old World during the Cretaceous and arrived to the New World (NW) in the Cenozoic era. A subgroup of NW BGVs, the “Squash leaf curl virus (SLCV) lineage” (S-Lin), includes viruses with unique characteristics. To get clues on the evolutionary origin of this lineage, a search for divergent members was undertaken. Four novel BGVs were characterized, including one that is basal to the group. Comparative analyses led to discover a ~670 bp genome module that is nearly exclusive of this lineage, encompassing the replication origin, the AC4 gene, and 480 bp of the Rep gene. A similar DNA module was found in two curtoviruses, hence suggesting that the S-Lin ancestor acquired its distinctive genomic segment by recombination with a curtovirus. This hypothesis was definitely disproved by an in-depth sequence analysis. The search for homologs of S-Lin Rep uncover the common origin of Rep proteins encoded by diverse Geminiviridae genera and viral “fossils” integrated at plant genomes. In contrast, no homolog of S-Lin Rep was found in public databases. Consequently, it was concluded that the SLCV clade ancestor evolved by a recombination event between a primitive NW BGV and a virus from a hitherto unknown lineage.
The Emergence of Avian Orthoavulavirus 13 in Wild Migratory Waterfowl in China Revealed the Existence of Diversified Trailer Region Sequences and HN Gene Lengths within this Serotype
Authors: Fei Yidong , Liu Xinxin , Mu Jiaqi , Li Junjiao , Yu Xibing , Chang Jin , Bi Yuhai , Stoeger Tobias , Wajid Abdul , Muzyka Denys , Sharshov Kirill , Shestopalov Alexander , Amonsin Alongkorn , Chen Jianjun , Ding Zhuang , Yin Renfu
Published: July 2019

Avian orthoavulavirus 13 (AOAV-13), also named avian paramyxovirus 13 (APMV-13), has been found sporadically in wild birds around the world ever since the discovery of AOAV-13 (AOAV-13/wild goose/Shimane/67/2000) in a wild goose from Japan in 2000. However, there are no reports of AOAV-13 in China. In the present study, a novel AOAV-13 virus (AOAV-13/wild goose/China/Hubei/V93-1/2015), isolated from a wild migratory waterfowl in a wetland of Hubei province of China, during active surveillance from 2013 to 2018, was biologically and genetically characterized. Phylogenetic analyses demonstrated a very close genetic relationship among all AOAV-13 strains, as revealed by very few genetic variations. Moreover, pathogenicity tests indicated that the V93-1 strain is a low virulent virus for chickens. However, the genome of the V93-1 virus was found to be 16,158 nucleotides (nt) in length, which is 12 nt or 162 nt longer than the other AOAV-13 strains that have been reported to date. The length difference of 12 nt in strain V93-1 is due to the existence of three repeats of the conserved sequence, “AAAAAT”, in the 5′-end trailer of the genome. Moreover, the HN gene of the V93-1 virus is 2070 nt in size, encoding 610 aa, which is the same size as the AOAV-13 strain from Japan, whereas that of two strains from Ukraine and Kazakhstan are 2080 nt in length, encoding 579 aa. We describe a novel AOAV-13 in migratory waterfowl in China, which suggests that diversified trailer region sequences and HN gene lengths exist within serotype AOAV-13, and highlight the need for its constant surveillance in poultry from live animal markets, and especially migratory birds.
Projected Climatic and Hydrologic Changes to Lake Victoria Basin Rivers under Three RCP Emission Scenarios for 2015–2100 and Impacts on the Water Sector
Authors: Olaka Lydia A. , Ogutu Joseph O. , Said Mohammed Y. , Oludhe Christopher
Published: July 2019

Rivers in the Lake Victoria Basin support a multitude of ecosystem services, and the economies of the riparian countries (Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, and Burundi) rely on their discharge, but projections of their future discharges under various climate change scenarios are not available. Here, we apply Vector Autoregressive Moving Average models with eXogenous variables (VARMAX) statistical models to project hydrological discharge for 23 river catchments for the 2015–2100 period, under three representative concentration pathways (RCPs), namely RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. We show an intensification of future annual rainfall by 25% in the eastern and 5–10% in the western part of the basin. At higher emission scenarios, the October to December season receives more rainfall than the March to May season. Temperature projections show a substantial increase in the mean annual minimum temperature by 1.3–4.5 °C and warming in the colder season (June to September) by 1.7–2.9 °C under RCP 4.5 and 4.9 °C under RCP 8.5 by 2085. Variability in future river discharge ranges from 5–267%, increases with emission intensity, and is the highest in rivers in the southern and south eastern parts of the basin. The flow trajectories reveal no systematic trends but suggest marked inter-annual variation, primarily in the timing and magnitude of discharge peaks and lows. The projections imply the need for coordinated transboundary river management in the future.
Classification of Synoptic Conditions of Summer Floods in Polish Sudeten Mountains
Authors: Bednorz Ewa , Wrzesiński Dariusz , Tomczyk Arkadiusz M. , Jasik Dominika
Published: July 2019

Atmospheric processes leading to extreme floods in the Polish Sudeten Mountains were described in this study. A direct impact of heavy precipitation on extremely high runoff episodes was confirmed, and an essential role of synoptic conditions in triggering abundant rainfall was proved. Synoptic conditions preceding each flood event were taken into consideration and the evolution of the pressure field as well as the moisture transport was investigated using the anomaly-based method. Maps of anomalies, constructed for the days prior to floods, enabled recognizing an early formation of negative centers of sea level pressure and also allowed distinguishing areas of positive departures of precipitable water content over Europe. Five cyclonic circulation patterns of different origin, and various extent and intensity, responsible for heavy, flood-triggering precipitation in the Sudetes, were assigned. Most rain-bringing cyclones form over the Mediterranean Sea and some of them over the Atlantic Ocean. A meridional southern transport of moisture was identified in most of the analyzed cases of floods. Recognizing the specific meteorological mechanisms of precipitation enhancement, involving evolution of pressure patterns, change in atmospheric moisture and occurrence of precipitation may contribute to a better understanding of the atmospheric forcing of floods in mountain areas and to improve predicting thereof.
Removal and Ecotoxicity of 2,4-D and MCPA in Microbial Cultures Enriched with Structurally-Similar Plant Secondary Metabolites
Authors: Mierzejewska Elżbieta , Baran Agnieszka , Tankiewicz Maciej , Urbaniak Magdalena
Published: July 2019

The removal of contaminants from the environment can be enhanced by interactions between structurally-related plant secondary metabolites (PSMs), selected xenobiotics and microorganisms. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of selected PSMs (ferulic acid—FA; syringic acid—SA) on the removal of structurally-similar phenoxy herbicides (PHs): 2,4-dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4-D) and 2-methyl-4-chlorophenoxyacetic acid (MCPA). The study also examines the biodegradation potential of soil bacteria, based on the occurrence of functional tdfA-like genes, and the ecotoxicity of the samples against two test species: Sinapis alba L. and Lepidium sativum L. The microbial cultures spiked with the PSMs demonstrated higher phenoxy acid removal: 97–100% in the case of 2,4-D and 99%–100% for MCPA. These values ranged from 5% to 100% for control samples not amended with FA or SA. The higher herbicide removal associated with PSM spiking can be attributed to acceleration of the microbial degradation processes. Our findings showed that the addition of SA particularly stimulated the occurrence of the total number of tfdA genes, with this presence being higher than that observed in the unamended samples. PSM spiking was also found to have a beneficial effect on ecotoxicity mitigation, reflected in high (102%) stimulation of root growth by the test species.
Spatial and Temporal Patterns of the Extreme Precipitation across the Tibetan Plateau (1986–2015)
Authors: Xiong Junnan , Yong Zhiwei , Wang Zegen , Cheng Weiming , Li Yi , Zhang Hao , Ye Chongchong , Yang Yanmei
Published: July 2019

The Tibetan Plateau is one of the most vulnerable areas to extreme precipitation. In recent decades, water cycles have accelerated, and the temporal and spatial characteristics of extreme precipitation have undergone dramatic changes across the Tibetan Plateau, especially in its various ecosystems. However, there are few studies that considered the variation of extreme precipitation in various ecosystems, and the impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and few researchers have made a quantitative analysis between them. In this study, we analyzed the spatial and temporal pattern of 10 extreme precipitation indices across the Tibetan Plateau (including its four main ecosystems: Forest, alpine meadow, alpine steppe, and desert steppe) based on daily precipitation from 76 meteorological stations over the past 30 years. We used the linear least squares method and Pearson correlation coefficient to examine variation magnitudes of 10 extreme precipitation indices and correlation. Temporal pattern indicated that consecutive wet days (CWD) had a slightly decreasing trend (slope = −0.006), consecutive dry days (CDD), simple daily intensity (SDII), and extreme wet day precipitation (R99) displayed significant increasing trends, while the trends of other indices were not significant. For spatial patterns, the increasing trends of nine extreme precipitation indices (excluding CDD) occurred in the southwestern, middle and northern regions of the Tibetan Plateau; decreasing trends were distributed in the southeastern region, while the spatial pattern of CDD showed the opposite distribution. As to the four different ecosystems, the number of moderate precipitation days (R10mm), number of heavy precipitation days (R20mm), wet day precipitation (PRCPTOT), and very wet day precipitation (R95) in forest ecosystems showed decreasing trends, but CDD exhibited a significant increasing trend (slope = 0.625, P < 0.05). In the other three ecosystems, all extreme precipitation indices generally exhibited increasing trends, except for CWD in alpine meadow (slope = −0.001) and desert steppe (slope = −0.005). Furthermore, the crossover wavelet transform indicated that the ENSO had a 4-year resonance cycle with R95, SDII, R20mm, and CWD. These results provided additional evidence that ENSO play an important remote driver for extreme precipitation variation in the Tibetan Plateau.
Combination of Discrete Element Method and Artificial Neural Network for Predicting Porosity of Gravel-Bed River
Authors: Bui Van Hieu , Bui Minh Duc , Rutschmann Peter
Published: July 2019

In gravel-bed rivers, monitoring porosity is vital for fluvial geomorphology assessment as well as in river ecosystem management. Conventional porosity prediction methods are restricting in terms of the number of considered factors and are also time-consuming. We present a framework, the combination of the Discrete Element Method (DEM) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), to study the relationship between porosity and the grain size distribution. DEM was applied to simulate the 3D structure of the packing gravel-bed and fine sediment infiltration processes under various forces. The results of the DEM simulations were verified with the experimental data of porosity and fine sediment distribution. Further, an algorithm was developed for calculating high-resolution results of porosity and grain size distribution in vertical and horizontal directions from the DEM results, which were applied to develop a Feed Forward Neural Network (FNN) to predict bed porosity based on grain size distribution. The reliable results of DEM simulation and FNN prediction confirm that our framework is successful in predicting porosity change of gravel-bed.
Sensibilité des écosystèmes forestiers tempérés français à la variabilité climatique et aux événements extrêmes : exemple du réseau RENECOFOR
Authors: Lebourgeois François , Rathgeber Cyrille , Merian Pierre , Ulrich Erwin
Published: July 2019

The influence of climate on the radial growth of 63 mature stands (1879 trees) growing under different climatic and soil conditions was investigated using chronologies developped from the French Network RENECOFOR. The relationships between climate and ring widths were analyzed using extreme growth years and response functions analysis (1949-1994). The study was led on 15 beech stands (450 trees), 11 sessile oak stands (324), 4 pedunculate oak stands (119), 11 silver fir stands (328), 8 Norway spruce stands (239) and 14 Scots pine stands (419). Both approaches highlighted the major role of winter temperatures and water balance on radial growth. For Silver fir, Norway spruce and oaks, prior autumn weather conditions (through temperature and water balance) and winter temperatures (February and April) influence earlywood growth whereas summer water balance influences latewood enhancement. On the other hand, the growth of both ring components for beech and Scots pine depends mainly on current summer water balance. For all the studied species, the importance of the water balance increases with increasing local water stress : maximal soil water content (SWC) < 100 mm for beech, altitude < 800 and/or SfVC < 100 mm for Silver fir, oceanic climate with low annual precipitations (about 700 mm) for Scots pine and oaks.
Influence du statut social des arbres sur la dynamique intra-annuelle de la formation du bois
Authors: Rathgeber Cyrille
Published: July 2019

The objective of this paper is to understand if the observed differences in radial growth according to tree social status are due to differences in the duration of the growing period or in its intensity. In a 40-year-old silver fir plantation, located near Nancy in North-Eastern France, 3x5 trees were selected according to their diameter in order to represent 3 classes of social status -domi¬ nant, dominated and suppressed. In 2006, wood samples were collected weekly during the whole growing season on the stem of the selected trees. Histological sections were prepared in order to allow microscopic observations of cambium and xylem cells. From these observations, intra-annual wood formation timing and dynamics were assessed. Our results show that cambial activity started earlier for the dominant trees (end of April) than for the dominated and the suppressed (beginning of May and mid-May respectively) ; it stopped earlier for the suppressed (mid-August) than for the dominated and the dominants (end of September and mid-September respectively). So the dominants benefited from a much longer growing period than the dominated and the suppressed (5, 4 54 and 2 2A months respectively). Moreover, the dominants presented a much higher cell production rate than the dominated and the suppressed (0.50, 0.20 and 0.16 cell/day respectively). Cell production intensity explains over 70 % of the final ring cell number variation, while duration only explains 30% of it. Even if cell production intensity and duration act together, the processes behind their regulation are of different nature. Indeed, while cambium reactivation is influenced by tree height, it is crown area that determines cambial activity intensity.
Reconstitution dendrogéomorphologique d'événements de lave torrentielle à l'aide de feuillus blessés
Authors: Arbellay Estelle , Stoffel Markus , Bollschweiler Michelle
Published: July 2019

Tree-ring records from conifers have been regularly used over the last few decades to date debris-flow events. The reconstruction of past debris-flow activity was, in contrast, only very rarely based on growth anomalies in broad-leaved trees. Consequently, this study aimed at dating the occurrence of former debris flows from growth series of broad-leaved trees and at determining their suitability for dendrogeomorphic research. Results were obtained from gray alder (Alnus incana (L.) Moench), silver birch and pubescent birch (Betula pendula Roth and Betula pubescens Ehrh.), aspen (Populus tremula L.), white poplar, black poplar and gray poplar (Populus alba L., Populus nigra L. and Populus x canescens (Ait.) Sm.), goat willow fSalix caprea L.) and black elder (Sambucus nigra L.) injured by debris-flow activity at Illgraben (Valais, Swiss Alps). Tree-ring analysis of 315 samples from 154 injured broad-leaved trees allowed the reconstruction of 14 debris-flow events between AD 1965 and 2007. These events were compared to archival records on debris-flow activity at Illgraben. It appears that debris flows are very common at Illgraben, but only very rarely left the channel over the period AD 1965-2007. Furthermore, analysis of the spatial distribution of disturbed trees contributed to the identification of six patterns of debris -flow routing and led to the determination of preferential breakout locations of events. The results of this study demonstrate the high potential of broad-leaved trees for dendrogeomorphic research.
Caractérisation de la croissance racinaire d'essences ligneuses implantées sur des digues fluviales
Authors: Zanetti Caroline , Guibal Frédéric , Brugier Maxime , Vennetier Michel , Mériaux Patrice , Lippmann-Provansal Mireille
Published: July 2019

Le développement des arbres sur les digues en terre est peu souhaitable du point de vue de la sécurité des ouvrages. Au-delà d'une certaine dimension, dépendante de l 'âge des arbres, de l 'espèce et du milieu, les systèmes racinaires génèrent des risques d'érosion qui peuvent être importants sur les digues anciennes et densément boisées. Outre la sécurité, la gestion et l 'entretien de la végétation arborescente implantée sur les digues nécessitent la prise en compte de plusieurs autres paramètres, tels que les fonctions écologiques et sociales des boisements rivulaires. L 'objectif de cette étude est donc de déterminer des seuils critiques basés sur les dimensions des racines qui permettront d'affiner les recommandations de gestion. Ces dimensions dépendant en partie de l'âge, la relation entre le diamètre des racines et leur âge a été évaluée, complétée par l'analyse de la vitesse de croissance des racines en fonction des espèces végétales, des individus, de l'âge des souches, des matériaux constitutifs du remblai et des modalités de gestion. Les échantillons de racines ont été prélevés sur des souches de feuillus extraites des levées de la Loire ainsi que sur des souches de résineux implantées sur une digue de retenue dans les Alpes Maritimes. Les espèces étudiées sont le peuplier (Populus hybridaj, le robinier (Robinia pseudoacaciaj, le chêne pubescent (Quercus pubescensj, l'érable negundo (Acer negundoj, le mélèze (Larix decidual et le pin sylvestre (Pinus sylvestrisj. La vitesse de croissance des racines est très dépendante de l'espèce. Le ratio âge /diamètre des grosses racines d'un arbre semble proportionnel au ratio âge /diamètre du tronc. Cependant, de nombreux paramètres influencent ce ratio, et des travaux complémentaires sont indispensables pour aboutir à un système opérationnel fiable d'aide à la décision.
Exploitation à visée archéo-environnementale des patrons de croissance des bois prélevés pour la datation du bâti. Le cas des châtaigniers de la grange ovale de Saint-Eloy-les-Tuileries, Corrèze
Authors: Belingard Christelle , Paradis-Grenouillet Sandrine , Rouaud Romain , Allée Philippe
Published: July 2019

The framework of the oval barn of La Rivière farm, at Saint-Eloy-les-Tuileries in Corrèze, has been dated by dendrochronology in the context of an operation of preservation that took place in 2007 and 2008. The analysis shows that the 21 dated timbers are chestnut wood cut down during the winter of 1569. This set of timbers provides a unique source of information on the management of Limousin chestnut woods for a very poorly documented period, and the interpretation of these tree ring archives in an archaeo-environmental perspective is contemplated. In 2008, this project is integrated into a CRP supervised by Géolab, that already includes a chapter about the recent history of Limousin chesnut woods (CRP "Geohistory and geoarchaeology of Limousin timberlands "). The growth of the barn 's beams is compared to that of current chestnut trees representing the three types of stands available today in Limousin : the coppice, the forest and the orchard. The aim is to discover in which kind of wooded lands the beams have been cut. The results indicate that the barn s timbers probably come from own-rooted trees which grew in a forest environment and were felled on a fairly wide area. The archaeo-environmental potential of ancient timbers sampled for the dating of buildings is also discussed.
AnthracoLoJ : un outil pour la simplification des mesures dendrométriques
Authors: Paradis-Grenouillet Sandrine , Leleu Jean-Philippe , Belingard Christelle , Rouaud Romain , Allée Philippe
Published: July 2019

The study of the diameter and the growth of archaeological wood is indispensable for the understanding of wood supply management. Measurements of the radius curvature and the widths of rings can be obtained by the observation of the growth rings which are a good gauge. Using image analysis allows for the best accuracy of measurement, but these techniques are particularly time consuming. The creation of the AnthracoLoJ application by Géolab laboratory permits the proliferation and the standardization of a part of these measurements. Using this method, only characteristic points are necessary to calculate a radius (the distance between the outer ring and the heart of wood).
The Effect of Gender on Decision-Making in the Juvenile Justice System
Authors: Gallego Córcoles Ricardo , Bartolomé Gutiérrez Raquel
Published: July 2019

There is enough evidence in scientific literature about the effect of gender on the decision-making in the Juvenile Justice System. However, in Spain, there are no known empirical studies in this regard. An approximation to our reality might serve as a starting point for a deeper analysis on the issue. The aim of the present study was to perform a descriptive, retrospective study of the cases disposed to the juvenile court judge during eight months in the Juvenile Court of Guadalajara, Spain. The final data set contained 166 cases, 127 boys and 39 girls disposed to the Juvenile Court of Guadalajara for committing some crime in the territorial scope of this province, No differences between sexes occurred in any case. Neither if only violent crimes are considered. All professionals who have intervened in the decision-making were women. This circumstance could influence the results obtained.
La educación universitaria desde la perspectiva del proceso histórico del desarrollo
Authors: Granado Castillo Denny
Published: July 2019

Este estudio tiene como objetivo develar la evolución histórica del desarrollo en el contexto universal para el análisis de sus contradicciones y la propuesta de la orientación de la educación universitaria hacia la liberación del pensamiento. Se ubica en la modalidad de investigación documental. La técnica utilizada fue la revisión de fuentes bibliográficas y el análisis de contenido. Se presentan perspectivas de los autores: Marx (1857) y Freire (1969) y se reflexiona analíticamente con el fin de proponer los basamentos de un nuevo modelo educativo emancipador. Una consideración final relevante es que se debe descolonizar el conocimiento y pensamiento humano (Dussel, 2016), siendo así necesario develar las políticas de desarrollo y sistemas económicos impuestos por los poderes hegemónicos que conciben al capitalismo como la única forma posible de subsistir. Se tiene entonces que superar esas prácticas sociales mediante una Educación liberadora que genere una revolución cultural.
Proyectos Comunitarios en el proceso de Transformación Social de la Universidad
Authors: Moraima Romero Denny , Aldana Zavala Julio Juvenal
Published: July 2019

Los proyectos comunitarios consisten en pensar en un conjunto de actividades interrelacionadas que deben conducir al logro de los resultados esperados. De igual manera el proceso de transformación implica abordar una situación real y cambiarla en beneficio de un colectivo o de la sociedad, por ello es necesaria la participación activa de los involucrados. Además, es considerado en la actualidad una metodología dinámica en los procesos de formación de los estudiantes en las diferentes etapas de su desarrollo profesional y personal. En este sentido, este trabajo de investigación tiene como propósito transformar la participación organizada de los profesores responsables de proyectos comunitarios en la Universidad Politécnica Territorial “Alonso Gomero”. Para ello se utilizó la modalidad de investigación acción participación, con una población de nueve (9) sujetos de investigación. La investigación se fundamenta bajo la concepción del paradigma socio crítico, que surge en respuesta a las tradiciones positivistas e interpretativas que han tenido poca influencia en la transformación social. Para realizar el diagnóstico y valoración de los resultados de las acciones aplicadas se utilizaron técnicas tales como la observación y las entrevistas abiertas, mediante instrumentos; registros y cuestionarios. Se elaboró y ejecutó un plan de acción, para transformar  la participación de los profesores  responsables de  proyectos comunitarios donde se obtuvo un cambio de actitud y reflexión en la participación activa de los proyectos.
Gestión investigativa en la era del conocimiento
Authors: Romero de Monfrino Ana Francisca
Published: July 2019

La intención de este artículo documental es la revisión de diversos enfoques teóricos en cuanto a la gestión investigativa, tomando en cuenta la vinculación universidad –comunidad – mundo globalizado, en donde se evidencia que es necesario fomentar una cultura investigativa, formando investigadores que sean capaces de generar el conocimiento con y para la sociedad. Además debe tomarse en cuenta el organizar los procesos de investigación, recordando que las universidades tienen el rol de generar conocimiento científico en pro del desarrollo de la sociedad, formando el talento humano.
Forecasting Wheat Production in Pakistan
Authors: Sher Falak , Ahmad Eatzaz
Published: July 2019

This study analyzes the future prospects of wheat production in
Pakistan. Parameters of the forecasting model are obtained by estimating a
Cobb-Douglas production function for wheat, while future values of various
inputs are obtained as dynamic forecasts on the basis of separate ARIMA
estimates for each input and for each province. Input forecasts and
parameters of the wheat production function are then used to generate
wheat forecasts. The results of the study show that the most important
variables for predicting wheat production per hectare (in order of
importance) are: lagged output, labor force, use of tractors, and sum of the
rainfall in the months of November to March. The null hypotheses of
common coefficients across provinces for most of the variables cannot be
rejected, implying that all variables play the same role in wheat production
in all the four provinces. Forecasting performance of the model based on
out-of-sample forecasts for the period 2005-06 is highly satisfactory with
1.81% mean absolute error. The future forecasts for the period of 2007-15
show steady growth of 1.6%, indicating that Pakistan will face a slight
shortage of wheat output in the future.
Apple Market Integration: Implications for Sustainable
Agricultural Development
Authors: Mushtaq Khalid , Abdul Gafoor Abdul Gafoor , Maula Dad Maula Dad
Published: July 2019

In a market driven economy, price signals guide and regulate
production, consumption and marketing decisions over time, form and place.
Identifying the causes of price differences in interregional or spatial markets
has therefore become an important economic analytical tool to understand
markets better. If markets are not well integrated, price signals are distorted,
which leads to an inefficient allocation of resources. Further, it may
constrain sustainable agricultural development and aggravate inequitable
patterns of income distribution. This paper examines the degree of spatial
market integration in the regional apple markets of Pakistan using
cointegration analysis and monthly wholesale price data from January, 1996
to December, 2005. Results show that apple markets are perfectly integrated
and Quetta is the dominating market. The high degree of market integration
observed in this case is consistent with view that apple markets in Pakistan
are quite competitive and provide little justification for government
intervention designed to improve competitiveness to enhance market
efficiency.
The Effects of Rising Food and Fuel Costs on Poverty in
Pakistan
Authors: Thompson Chaudhry Theresa , Amjad Chaudhry Azam
Published: July 2019

The dramatic increase in international food and fuel prices in
recent times is a crucial issue for developing countries and the most
vulnerable to these price shocks are the poorest segments of society. In
countries like Pakistan, the discussion has focused on the impact of
substantially higher food and fuel prices on poverty. This paper used PSLM
and MICS household level data to analyze the impact of higher food and
energy prices on the poverty head count and the poverty gap ratio in
Pakistan. Simulated food and energy price shocks present some important
results: First, the impact of food price increases on Pakistani poverty levels
is substantially greater than the impact of energy price increases. Second,
the impact of food price inflation on Pakistani poverty levels is significantly
higher for rural populations as compared to urban populations. Finally,
food price inflation can lead to significant increases in Pakistani poverty
levels: For Pakistan as a whole, a 20% increase in food prices would lead to
an 8% increase in the poverty head count.
Economic Value of Irrigation Water: Evidence from a
Punjab Canal
Authors: Hussain Ijaz , H. Sial Maqbool , Hussain Zakir , Akram Waqar
Published: July 2019

This study is based on data from a cross sectional survey of 120
farms located along the Mithaluck irrigation canal in central Punjab. The
data collected were analyzed using (i) the residual imputation method, and
(ii) the change in net income method, and applied to a linear programming
model to estimate the value productivity of irrigation water. Returns to
irrigation varied by farm size and location on the canal, but were
generally found to be very high relative to the estimated delivery cost of
irrigation water. The results of this study could prove useful in determining
the economic feasibility of various resources for supplementing water and
improving delivery and application efficiencies.
The Impact of Corporate Governance on the Cost of Equity:
Empirical Evidence from Pakistani Listed Companies
Authors: Zulfiqar Ali Shah Syed , Ali Butt Safdar
Published: July 2019

This study examines the impact of the quality of corporate
governance, as measured by a specially constructed corporate governance
index, on the expected cost of equity calculated using the capital asset
pricing model (CAPM) approach. A total of 114 listed companies were
investigated to analyze the relationship between the two variables for the
period 2003 to 2007. The quality of corporate governance was measured by
assigning weights to a set of related variables, although these variables were
also considered individually. We used descriptive statistics, a correlation
matrix, a simple ordinary least squares (OLS) approach, and fixed effect
model to test the panel data collected. We found a negative relationship
between managerial ownership and board size with the cost of equity, and a
positive relationship between board independence, audit committee
independence, and corporate governance with the cost of equity. These
results could be due to the transition phase through which Pakistani
companies are passing after the promulgation of the Code of Corporate
Governance in 2002.
Trade and Income Convergence in Selected South Asian Countries and Their Trading Partners
Authors: Nawaz Hakro Ahmed , Ahmad Fida Bashir
Published: July 2019

This paper analyzes trade among and the convergence of per capita income for India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka. The extent of trade and its relationship with the magnitude of income convergence is studied among these countries and their trading partners. We use intra-trade convergence and the difference-in-differences approach for the estimations. The results demonstrate that an increase in trade between the groups decreases the per capita income differential. Our results suggest that trade liberalization policies could be effective in achieving convergence. More importantly, we find that the per capita income of our source countries converged more rapidly under post-liberalization regimes than pre-liberalization regimes.
An Analysis of Host Country Characteristics that Determine FDI in Developing Countries: Recent Panel Data Evidence
Authors: Tariq Majeed Muhammad , Ahmad Eatzaz
Published: July 2019

This paper analyzes a range of host country characteristics that determine foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to developing countries, using panel data on 72 countries for the period 1970-2008. Keeping in view the endogeneity problem of the chosen host country’s characteristics, the model is estimated using the General Method of Moments (GMM) technique. The analysis shows that gross domestic product (GDP), economic growth, and per capita income positively affect FDI—a result consistent with the market-seeking behavior of multinational corporations (MNCs). Furthermore, we find that remittances have a significant and positive impact on FDI. On the other hand, inflation and the balance of payments deficit have negative effects on FDI. MNCs are attracted to host countries that are outward looking and follow trade-promoting policies. This is confirmed by the positive effect of openness on FDI flows to developing countries. The study also finds that the effect of military expenditures on FDI is negative and significant. Finally, our analysis finds that the real exchange rate has a significantly negative impact on FDI.
An Efficiency Analysis of Punjab’s Cotton-Wheat System
Authors: Javed M. Ishaq , Ali Adil Sultan , Hassan Sarfaraz , Ali Asghar
Published: July 2019

This study examines the technical, allocative, and economic
efficiencies of the cotton-wheat farming system in Punjab, Pakistan. It also
investigates the determinants of these efficiencies using a non-parametric
data envelopment analysis (DEA) technique. Technical, allocative, and
economic inefficiency scores are separately regressed on socioeconomic and
farm-specific variables to identify the sources of inefficiency using a Tobit
regression model. The mean technical, allocative, and economic efficiencies
calculated for the system were 0.87, 0.44, and 0.37, respectively. Our
results indicate that years of schooling and the number of contacts with
extension agents have a negative impact on the inefficiency of cotton-wheat
farming in Punjab.
Competitiveness of Pakistani Fruits in the World Market
Authors: Akhtar Waqar , Sharif M. , Shah Hassnain
Published: July 2019

This paper examines the global competitiveness of Pakistan’s fruit exports (dates, mangoes, and oranges), using revealed comparative advantage (RCA). It also analyzes domestic consumption trends among selected fruits grown by major exporters. Our results indicate that Pakistan has a comparative advantage in fruit exports. Comparing the movement in comparative advantage indices for Pakistan with those of its main exporters/competitors demonstrates that Pakistan has a relatively high comparative and competitive advantage in the production of dates and mangoes. The increasing trend of competitiveness in Pakistan indicates that there is potential for higher growth; given that fruit exports are a potential source of higher exports earnings, there is a need to strengthen competitiveness in this sector.
The Rise of Bilateralism in Trade and its
Implications for Pakistan
Authors: Irfan ul Haque Irfan ul Haque
Published: July 2019

This paper examines and critiques the worldwide mushrooming of preferential trading arrangements and traces its implications for Pakistan. It points out that this development is fundamentally contrary to the principle of most-favored-nation (MFN) treatment, which was the cornerstone of the post-war multilateral trading system as embodied in the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and by the World Trade Organization (WTO). The causes of the rise in bilateral and regional trading arrangements are discussed and it is shown that they pose a real threat to many relatively small economies, including Pakistan. The paper discusses the various preferential trade agreements Pakistan has already signed. It notes that, with the exception of its trade agreement with China, Pakistan has not succeeded in concluding preferential trading arrangements with any of the strategically and systemically more important countries, viz., the US, European Union, and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The South Asia Free Trade Area (SAFTA) could potentially be of considerable importance for Pakistan’s long-term economic growth, but this potential might not be realized if India and Pakistan fail to overcome their mutual differences. Finally, the paper explores steps that might be taken to promote Pakistan’s economic interests in its bilateral relations.
Unilateral Liberalization versus Regional Integration:
The Case of ECO Member Countries
Authors: Khan Achakzai Jahangir
Published: July 2019

Using an international dataset on bilateral trade for 137 countries
in 2005, we estimate a gravity model to address the question of whether
intra-Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) trade is too low and
whether the scale of trade at present is accounted for by regional
integration or unilateral liberalization. The results of the gravity model
confirm that intra-regional trade is lower than predicted by the gravity
equation. The results also validates the theory that the present level of trade
is attributed to regional agreements rather than unilateral liberalization,
suggesting greater scope for regional cooperation among ECO member
countries.
Asset Allocation for Government Pension Funds in Pakistan:
A Case for International Diversification
Authors: Rehman Fahd
Published: July 2019

Reforms have begun in Pakistan to sustain the funded pension
scheme for government-operated pension schemes such as the Employees
Old Age Benefit Institution (EOBI). Presently, the EOBI operates its own
fund and invests most of its assets in government-backed securities which
are basically interest-bearing debt instruments. Although the returns on the
EOBI’s fund have been high for a short period due to higher interest rates
and minimum pension distributions, this trend is not likely to continue.
Funded pension schemes depend heavily on portfolio performance because
risk is transferred to contributors. Therefore, asset allocation becomes
considerably important. The purpose of this study is to determine optimal
asset allocation and the role of international diversification specifically for
the EOBI’s funds and generally for newly created funded pension schemes
in Pakistan. The article analyzes the potential benefits accrued through
international investments based on historical returns over almost five
decades with varying degrees of risk aversion coefficients. Varying degrees
of risk may allow policymakers to incorporate their strategies for future
asset behavior and take timely action to counter the potential threat of
aging, demographic shifts, and liabilities and to ensure decent benefits for
pensioners.
Fiscal Marksmanship in Pakistan
Authors: Zakaria Muhammad , Ali Shujat
Published: July 2019

Using Theil’s inequality coefficient based on the mean square
prediction error, this paper evaluates the forecasting efficiency of the
central government budget and revised budget estimates in Pakistan for
the period 1987/88 to 2007/08 and decomposes the errors into
biasedness, unequal variation and random components to analyze the
source of error. The results reveal that budgetary forecasting is inefficient
in Pakistan and the error is due mainly to exogenous variables (random
factors). We also find that neither the budget nor revised budget
estimates of revenue and expenditure satisfy the criteria of rational
expectations of forecasting. Further, there is very little evidence of
improvement in the efficiency of budgetary forecasts over time.