bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
From Rebels to Rulers and Legislators: The Political Transformation of the Free Aceh Movement (GAM) in Indonesia
Authors: Stange Gunnar , Patock Roman
Published: February 2019

On 15 August 2005, when the Republic of Indonesia and the Free Aceh Movement (Gerakan Aceh Merdeka, GAM) signed the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) in Helsinki, Finland, it was considered yet another uncertain attempt at putting an end to Indonesia's thirty years of conflict in its westernmost province, Aceh. After a historically unprecedented reconstruction process that followed the tsunami of December 2004 and two orderly elections in 2006/2007 and 2009, Aceh's peace process is not only still on track, but widely considered a role model for ending protracted civil wars by means of political participation and autonomy regulations. This article reviews past developments that have led to the reconfiguration of Aceh's political landscape and seeks to illustrate the most recent developments in GAM's transformation from an independence movement to an Indonesian local political party.
Civil Society Action and Governance in Vietnam: Selected Findings from an Empirical Survey
Authors: Wischermann Jörg
Published: February 2019

In this article, findings from 300 standardized interviews with representatives of Civic Organizations in Ho Chi Minh-City and Ha Noi are presented. Following a view of civil society as a specific mode of social action and interaction, data analysis unveils the existence of core dimensions of such action (respect, empathy/ sympathy, and the willingness to compromise and stick to agreed-upon rules), though the respective values of those dimensions vary strongly. Inseparably linked with such civil society action of whatever kind is consensus-seeking, an aversion to conflicts, and an affinity to synthesis. These attitudes and practices, dominating various Civic Organizations’ internal decision-making processes, represent elements of authoritarian political thinking in Civic Organizations’ leaders’ mindsets and courses of action. Combined, those characteristics make up civil society action “in Vietnamese colours”.
Re-examining the Role of Transport Infrastructure in Trade, Regional Growth and Governance: Comparing the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) and Central Eastern Europe (CEE)
Authors: Bafoil François , Ruiwen Lin
Published: February 2019

The main objective of this article is to question the hypothesis of the role of transport infrastructures in regional economic growth by comparing Central Eastern Europe (supported by the EU structural and cohesion funds) and the Greater Mekong Subregion (mainly supported by the “economic corridors” of the ADB). Three main components of trade efficiency are scrutinized and compared: (1) the historical development of trade agreements, (2) the supra-national (regional) capacity of trade regulation, and (3) the micro level of governance between the different actors involved in trade. The comparison between CEE and the GMS is all the more warranted because of two paradoxes that need to be explained: The first one results from the existing link between transport and growth in the case of the GMS, and the lack of a link in the case of CEE. The second paradox insists on the fact that despite their very different institutional frameworks, both subregions continue to face similar challenges concerning the implementation of trade agreements and the exchange of facilities at the local level – pointing towards the issue of governance.
Jemaah Islamiyah: Of Kin and Kind
Authors: Osman Sulastri
Published: February 2019

Convicted terrorists from Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) have attested to using the Internet in one way or another during their operations, from sending messages to one another to looking for extremist fatwas online to justify their actions. That said, however, one would be hard pressed to prove the primacy of the Internet in their transition to violence. More often than not, more traditional elements – blood relations and marriage ties – remain the key to individual religious radicalization and political violence in Southeast Asia. This paper revisits these kinship linkages as well as quasi-kinship ones that include teacher–disciple bonds and the wider fraternity of ikhwan-ship (brotherhood) with particular regard to JI. Keeping counter-terrorism efforts in context is important or else governments could run the risk of carelessly allocating vital resources to less immediate concerns.
Monopolizing, Mutualizing, or Muddling Through: Factions and Party Management in Contemporary Thailand
Authors: Chambers Paul W. , Croissant Aurel
Published: February 2019

In democracies throughout the world, intra-party factions manifest themselves in parties and governments. Formal and informal institutions have, however, proved crucial in managing factionalism. This is especially true in Thailand's emerging parliamentary democracy where the management of factionalism has become a major objective for Thai parties. This study explores factions and factionalism as well as how different types of parties try to manage intra-party dissension especially in the case of Thailand. The findings suggest that management style tends to be a function of a party's organization, with parties which practice a collegial style tending to be the more successful in controlling intra-party cliques over time. At the same time, the most important tools which party leaderships can use to control factions are the careful use of constitutional provisions and manipulation of party finance.
Regional Security in East Asia: ASEAN's Value Added and Limitations
Authors: Ba Alice D.
Published: February 2019

This paper considers ASEAN's value added and limitations as regards its ability to play a meaningful and practical security role in East Asia and the Asia Pacific. It argues that ASEAN's contributions to regional security and within ASEAN-plus arrangements are not uniform. Instead, they vary depending on the relationship and the arrangement. This paper gives particular attention to two sets of relations: 1) ASEAN's relations with major powers; and 2) major power relations with one another. It argues that the latter has proven most challenging in terms of both practical changes to the regional security environment and growing questions about the appropriateness and capacity of ASEAN to “lead” institutional arrangements, but that such challenges may also vary depending on which major power relationship or regional institution is in question. It further argues that ASEAN's challenges are also conditioned by security contributions that are often understated, though dissatisfactions from both inside and outside the organization are likely to remain persistent challenges to ASEAN ability to defend its current role.
The Politics of “Public Opinion” in the Philippines
Authors: Hedman Eva-Lotta E.
Published: February 2019

In May 2010, national elections in the Philippines saw front-runner presidential candidate Benigno “Noynoy” Aquino III win a landslide victory which set the stage for an orderly transition of power from the administration of Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. This article argues that Aquino's victory, rather than signalling a clear departure from the old ways of doing politics or the mere reproduction of established patterns of oligarchical politics, points towards a more gradual and limited change in the mobilisation of voters in the Philippines. This change, it is further argued, reflects in part the rise of “public opinion” as a social fact in Philippine politics and society in the period since the resurrection of formal democratic institutions and regular elections. The article identifies the broad parameters of the rise in polls and surveys in the Philippines, and, drawing on the critical insights of Pierre Bourdieu, examines the nature and significance of “public opinion” itself. However, the argument advanced here is a cautionary one, indicating that, while the emergence of public opinion as a social fact alters political calculations and dynamics associated with voter mobilisation, the politics of public opinion may only have limited transformative potential for democracy in the Philippines.
The Maritime Potential of ASEAN Economies
Authors: Evers Hans-Dieter , Karim Azhari
Published: February 2019

Countries may utilize a long coastline in relation to their landmass as a resource to develop their maritime economy. This paper argues that ASEAN countries differ in utilizing their maritime potential. As a basis for further comparative studies the Center for Policy Research and International Studies (CenPRIS) in Penang developed a set of indicators to measure the maritime potential of nations, the state of their maritime industries, and the degree to which the maritime potential has actually been utilized. Using the CenPRIS Ocean Index (COI) shows that Brunei and the Philippines have underutilized their maritime potentials, whereas Singapore and Thailand have made full use of it. Malaysia still has the potential to further develop its maritime economy.
Chinese Assertiveness in the South China Sea and Southeast Asian Responses
Authors: Thayer Carlyle A.
Published: February 2019

This article reviews Chinese assertive behaviour towards the Philippines and Vietnam over South China Sea issues in 2011. The article compares and contrasts Chinese diplomatic behaviour in the period before and after the adoption by ASEAN member states and China of Guidelines for the Implementation the Declaration on Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea in July. In the first period China aggressively asserted its claims to sovereignty by interfering with commercial fishing and oil exploration activities of vessels operating in the Exclusive Economic Zones of Vietnam and the Philippines. Both states resisted Chinese actions. The Philippines allocated increased funding for defence modernization, lobbied ASEAN states and shored up its alliance with the United States. Vietnam too protested Chinese action and undertook symbolic steps to defend national sovereignty. In the second period all states moved to contain South China Sea tensions from affecting their larger bilateral relations. It remains to be seen, however, if proposed confidence building measures will ameliorate Chinese assertiveness.
Lessons from Preah Vihear: Thailand, Cambodia, and the Nature of Low-Intensity Border Conflicts
Authors: Wagener Martin
Published: February 2019

In 1962, the International Court of Justice ruled that the Preah Vihear temple lies within Cambodian territory. The status of the 4.6 km2 of land surrounding the temple, however, remained unclear. When UNESCO declared the Preah Vihear temple a Cambodian World Heritage Site in July 2008, the situation was exacerbated. Several firefights between October 2008 and April/May 2011 claimed at least 34 lives. The border dispute became a rollercoaster ride along the way: Talks between Thailand and Cambodia were regularly interrupted by exchanges of fire, only to be resumed a little later. This prevented a resolution of the conflict. The essay explores how Thailand's and Cambodia's conflict behaviour can be explained from a first-image perspective. In doing so, uncovering the motives of both countries’ prime ministers is crucial to understanding Bangkok's and Phnom Penh's actions in the border area. The paper argues that in low-intensity border conflicts, motivations are different from those underlying heads of government's behaviour in high-intensity border conflicts. While this complicates an agreement on the Preah Vihear question, it also means that escalation to a manifest border war is very unlikely.
China-Burma Geopolitical Relations in the Cold War
Authors: Hongwei FAN
Published: February 2019

This paper explores the historical role of geography in the Sino-Burmese relationship in the context of the Cold War, both before and after the Chinese–American détente and rapprochement in the 1970s. It describes Burma's fear and distrust of China throughout the Cold War, during which it maintained a policy of neutrality and non-alignment. Burma's geographic location, sandwiched between its giant neighbours India and China, led it to adopt a realist paradigm and pursue an independent foreign policy. Characterizing China's threat to Burmese national security as “grave” during its period of revolutionary export, the article notes that Burma was cowed into deference and that it deliberately avoided antagonizing China. It also looks at the history of China's attempts to break out of U.S. encirclement after the Korean War and its successful establishment of Burma as an important buffer state. After the U.S.–China rapprochement in 1972, however, Burma's geographical significance for Beijing declined. In this context, Burma's closed-door policy of isolation further lessened its strategic importance for China. Since 1988, however, Burma's strategic importance to China has been on the rise once again, as it plays a greater role as China's land bridge to the Indian Ocean and in its energy security and expansion of trade and exports.
The Vexing Strategic Tug-of-War over Naypyidaw: ASEAN's View of the Sino–Burmese Ties
Authors: Chachavalpongpun Pavin
Published: February 2019

This article argues that ASEAN's policy toward Myanmar has been predominantly responsive, dictated by China's activism in the region. It posits three arguments: First, that the release of political prisoners, including Aung San Suu Kyi, may have been a tactical move to convince ASEAN to award it the 2014 chairmanship and thereby consolidate the legitimacy of the current regime; second, that Thein Sein's suspension of the Myitsone Dam was a strategic move intended to please both domestic and ASEAN constituencies; and third, that Myanmar's chairmanship of ASEAN in 2014 will help justify the organisation's past approach to Burma as well as accelerate the process of community-building. The paper argues that in spite of the growing interconnectedness between ASEAN and China, ASEAN is locked in a strategic tug-of-war with China over Myanmar. Myanmar has, on multiple occasions, played upon ASEAN's suspicion of China by playing the “China card,” as I term it, forcing ASEAN to continually legitimise it through public statements.
Women's Political Participation in Indonesia: Decentralisation, Money Politics and Collective Memory in Bali
Authors: Rhoads Elizabeth
Published: February 2019

This article contends that cultural, political and historical factors create a local political environment where de facto discrimination against women is the norm. Without thoroughly addressing and altering the underlying issues causing discrimination against women in politics, a weak quota system will not immediately lead to increased women's participation in Bali. This paper argues that the leading factors contributing to low levels of Balinese women's participation include widespread money politics, the revitalisation of customary institutions and local identities through decentralisation, and the collective memory of the violent dissolution of the Indonesian Women's Movement (Gerwani) in 1965–66.
Cambodia-China Relations: A Positive-Sum Game?
Authors: Pheakdey Heng
Published: February 2019

China has re-emerged to become a dominant foreign player in Cambodia. Politically, Cambodia is one of China's oldest and closest allies. Economically, China is Cambodia's top foreign investor, a major donor, and an increasingly important trading partner. Culturally, Chinese values are deeply embedded in many aspects of Cambodian society. However, China's dominance is surrounded by renewed controversies. While the government warmly welcomes Chinese aid, saying that it comes with no strings attached, many experts are concerned that China is providing aid for more nefarious reasons. Critics also accuse Chinese investment and aid of having exacerbated corruption, weakened governance and harmed human rights, and of ruining Cambodia's natural resources and environment. With such controversies, it is relevant and significant to assess the roles that China has played and continues to play in Cambodia's socio-economic development. Using expert interviews, media analysis and an extensive literature review, this paper uniquely contributes to the existing discussion on China–Cambodia relations by closely examining the controversies of China's investment and aid, critically analysing China's interests in Cambodia, and asking if the relationship between the two nations is a positive-sum game.
Burma in Diaspora: A Preliminary Research Note on the Politics of Burmese Diasporic Communities in Asia
Authors: Egreteau Renaud
Published: February 2019

This research note focuses on the far-flung Burmese overseas communities, situating them into the wider diaspora literature. Drawing on extant scholarship on refugees, migrants and exiled dissidents of Burmese origin, it presents an original cartography of Burmese diasporic groups dispersed throughout Asia. It explores their migration patterns and tentatively maps out their transnational networks. It seeks to comparatively examine the relationships these polymorphous exiled groups have developed with the homeland. Two research questions have been identified and need further exploration in the context of the post-junta opening that has been observed since 2011: First, what comprises the contribution of the Burmese diaspora to political change and homeland democratization? This has been widely debated over the years. Despite a dynamic transnational activism, there is still little evidence that overseas Burmese have influenced recent domestic political developments. Second and subsequently, how can the Burmese diaspora effectively generate social and economic change back home: by “remitting” or by “returning”? This note argues that Burmese migrant social and financial remittances might prove a more viable instrument to foster development and democratization inside Myanmar in the short term than a mere homecoming of exiles and skilled migrants. This is a preliminary analysis that hopes to encourage further research on Burmese diasporic politics and their potential leverage as “agents of change”.
Provincial Poverty Dynamics in Lao PDR: A Case Study of Savannakhet
Authors: Andriesse Edo , Phommalath Anouxay
Published: February 2019

Although the average poverty level in Lao PDR has declined substantially since the beginning of economic reforms in 1986, sub-national dynamics give rise to a discussion of the trends and issues that determine and sustain provincial poverty and the variegated processes of rural transition. It appears that migration to core areas does not always generate better living standards, as migration to Vientiane Capital and Vientiane Province also results in a relocation of poverty from peripheral to core areas. This article sheds light on these problems and discusses the implications for the spatial dimensions of poverty in core provinces located on emerging Greater Mekong Subregion corridors and peripheral provinces. A case study of Savannakhet, located along the East West Economic Corridor, shows how rural households cope with the pressures arising from increasing market forces and regionalization. Based on in-depth fieldwork in the village of Ban Gnang Pho Sy, the results indicate that a shift occurred among the rural poor, in which their livelihoods changed from being based purely on subsistence agriculture to being focused increasingly upon pluriactive (commercial) farming, livelihood diversification and labour migration to Thailand. Provinces located along emerging corridors experience a complex mosaic of impacts of integration due to fragmented ethnic-linguistic geographies and the varying relevance of pull versus push factors: imports versus exports, inward versus outward investments, and in- versus out-migration. In sum, rather than the neoliberal promise of a flatter socioeconomic landscape, the human geography of the Greater Mekong Subregion remains rough, due to politicization of foreign direct investments, complex land dealings and landlessness, migration patterns and rising inequality.
Labour Migration and the Economic Sustainability in Thailand
Authors: Pholphirul Piriya
Published: February 2019

Migration is one of the top debate topics in terms of the national policy agendas of middle-income countries, and Thailand is no exception. The segmentation of its labour market explains why Thailand is experiencing large-scale immigration and a simultaneous emigration of low-skilled workers. Immigration inflows from its less-developed neighbour countries -namely, Laos, Cambodia and Myanmar – pose a challenge for Thailand. Wage differentials between Thailand and other migrant-receiving countries, which are mostly more economically developed than Thailand, also stimulate emigration from there. Due to regional disparities within the country and to a lack of employment and educational opportunities in rural areas, internal migration is also common and encouraged. In this paper I first analyse the economic pros and cons of migration both to and within Thailand before formulating labour migration policies that aim to maximize beneficial outcomes while minimizing economic costs. The cost–benefit analysis of labour migration is key to addressing relevant gaps in formulating and implementing effective policies.
Case Study: The Myanmar and Bangladesh Maritime Boundary Dispute in the Bay of Bengal and Its Implications for South China Sea Claims
Authors: Balaram Ravi A.
Published: February 2019

This paper seeks to review the pertinent Myanmar and Bangladesh history in overlapping maritime territorial claims leading up to the September 2011 International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea (ITLOS) case: Dispute Concerning Delimitation of the Maritime Boundary Between Bangladesh and Myanmar in the Bay of Bengal. It will dissect the legal proceedings as primary source documents and apply the relevant judgement findings to analyse the implications for the respective countries and for South China Sea maritime boundary disputes. While the judgements of this case set certain legal precedents that may be more easily applied to bilateral disputes, the implications, nevertheless, impinge on multilateral claims as well. To the extent that the Bangladesh-Myanmar ITLOS judgement provides a pathway to third-party, independent, and peaceful resolution to the potentially explosive and escalating tensions in the South China Sea, this paper argues that findings are relevant, but limited.
Democratic Transformation and Regional Institutions: The Case of Myanmar and ASEAN
Authors: Renshaw Catherine Shanahan
Published: February 2019

The focus of this article is Myanmar's transition to democracy, which is taking place after almost half a century of military rule. The former military rulers are themselves the architects of transition. This article notes that one of the key challenges faced by military regimes during this kind of transition is the problem of “credible commitments”. In short, the issue is this: a transition will only be successful if it has the support of the political opposition and the public at large. But why should these groups believe in the promises of former tyrants? Problems of credibility and low expectations about the intention and capacity of the military to effect reform can cause destabilisation and undermine prospects for a successful transition. In worst case scenarios, instability leads to a resurgence of authoritarianism, or to a(nother) military coup. This article highlights the role of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in assisting the transition and stabilisation of Myanmar's fledgling democracy. The argument is that ASEAN provides a means whereby Myanmar's leaders can make credible commitments about their intentions in relation to liberalisation and democratisation, lending support to Myanmar's reformist government at a crucial time in the transition to democracy. The article concludes that under certain circumstances, even regional organisations such as ASEAN, which are not comprised of a majority of democratic states, can (to a degree) influence perceptions about a democratising regime's commitment to reform.
Filipino Identity: The Haunting Question
Authors: Mulder Niels
Published: February 2019

With their national origins in Spanish and US imperialism, and in the subsequent wake of intense waves of cultural colonisation, educated Filipinos are often at a loss about what their roots are. In order to bring much needed clarity to the ongoing debate about what it means to be Filipino, this essay will relate the past to the present by tracing the evolution of, and the continuities in, the essence of Filipino social organisation and worldview, drawing frequent comparisons with Indonesian and Thai data. The core approach taken – wherein these issues are examined through the lens of culture – is complemented with (i) reflections on common Southeast Asian principles of social construction and (ii) with the pinpointing of the systemic divides that prevent Filipinos from identifying with the collective whole and from growing into a nation of committed citizens. The paper is of relevance both to scholarly researchers and to others with practical interests in the region, as it will enable them to better know the people that they are or will be dealing with.
The Organisation of the Killings and the Interaction between State and Society in Central Java, 1965
Authors: Hammer Mathias
Published: February 2019

This article investigates how the Indonesian state organised the killing of approx. 100,000 communists and alleged communists in Central Java in 1965. It presents the argument that even though state institutions unleashed the killings and perpetrated much of the violence, the state's control over this violence was limited. In particular, decisions by state institutions as to who would be targeted by the violence at the individual level were considerably influenced by civilian actors. Six theses develop this argument by reconstructing these events. They highlight the fact that the Indonesian army faced capacity constraints (thesis 1) and relied on improvisation (2). The army detained many of the victims in improvised facilities prior to their deaths (3). In these installations, the army's capacity to identify and select those of the detainees it wished to execute was constrained by a lack of reliable men among their forces. Chaotic conditions in the detention facilities put further limits on the state's capacity to select people for execution. To counter these effects, auditing and investigation teams were put into place to carry out these selections (4). In doing so, they had to rely on information from their victims’ social environments (5), which identified candidates for detention and supplied details that helped the selection teams decide what to do with detainees (6). This information was supplied voluntarily, often as a result of personal initiative.
Seducing for Truth and Justice: Civil Society Initiatives for the 1965 Mass Violence in Indonesia
Authors: Wahyuningroem Sri Lestari
Published: February 2019

The article examines both civil society initiatives that seek to address the mass violence of 1965 and 1966 and the state's responses to them. Unlike other political-transition contexts in the world, a transitional justice approach is apparently a formula that state authorities have found difficult to implement nationally for this particular case. The central government has, through its institutions, sporadically responded to some of the calls from civil society groups and has even initiated policy reforms to support such initiatives. Nevertheless, these responses were not sustained and any suggested programmes have always failed to be completed or implemented. Simultaneously, however, NGOs and victims are also voicing their demands at the local level. Many of their initiatives involve not only communities but also local authorities, including in some cases the local governments. In some aspects, these “bottom-up” approaches are more successful than attempts to create change at the national level. Such approaches challenge what Kieran McEvoy refers to as an innate “seductive” quality of transitional justice, but at the same time these approaches do, in fact, aim to “seduce” the state to adopt measures for truth and justice.
Ethnicity and Voting Patterns in the 2007 and 2012 Gubernatorial Elections in Jakarta
Authors: Prasetyawan Wahyu
Published: February 2019

This paper evaluates the dynamics of ethnicity and politics in the 2007 and 2012 gubernatorial elections in Jakarta. Previous research has mostly emphasised the negative impact of ethnicity on politics in the reformasi era, particularly through ethnic polarisation. By closely evaluating the major ethnic groups living in the mega-city, i.e. the Javanese, Betawi and Chinese, the author shows that the relationship between ethnicity and voting patterns is an intricate one that is not static, particularly if one evaluates a commonly overlooked but crucial factor – the time frame. The author argues that ethnicity continues to play a role in elections even though it is less significant than education and flood variables. The relationship between ethnicity and voting patterns is thus very dynamic, being related to the political context at the time of an election. The findings in this paper open up new questions on ethnicity and politics in a plural society like Indonesia.
The Role of Volunteers and Political Participation in the 2012 Jakarta Gubernatorial Election
Authors: Suaedy Ahmad
Published: February 2019

The changes that occurred in the Jakarta 2012 election may be seen as a change in Indonesia's social movements and election tradition. They marked a social movement with special characteristics; specifically, a ‘partisan’ movement, led by the successful Jokowi–Ahok ticket. The partisan social movement also changed the tradition of money politics, which has always coloured general and local elections in Indonesia. This paper found four main factors in Jokowi–Ahok's victory. The first was their reputations and track records of leadership and consistency, which, secondly, encouraged unpaid volunteers to motivate the public to participate in the election and vote for the pair. Thirdly, in contrast to previous social movements in Indonesia, the volunteers did not just work to overthrow the current leadership and replace it, and then distance themselves, but instead continued to monitor the candidates; some managed government directly, while others took watch dog position. Fourthly, the relationship between volunteers and local government was not necessarily oppositional. As such, they were partisan not only in that they were supporters of a pair of candidates, but also in their promotion and support of openness, anti-corruption efforts and provision of maximum public services.
Merit-Making Activities and the Latent Ideal of the Buddhist Wat in Southwestern Cambodia
Authors: O'Lemmon Matthew
Published: February 2019

The divergent experiences surrounding merit-making acts represent the distinct backgrounds of individuals and communities that have emerged in postwar Cambodia. This article examines merit-making activities in two Buddhist temples in southwestern Cambodia and the influence of political patronage on temple–community relationships. This influence elicits images of a latent ideal of the Buddhist monastery that are used by local communities to form a social critique both of such political involvement within temples and of the destabilising effect it has on local people's merit-making activities. This ideal also reflected the political economies and social networks created within the temples that comprised two different models of patronage and means of accessing resources.
Social Movements in Southeast Asia and Latin America
Authors: Anugrah Iqra
Published: February 2019

Three recent works - Social Activism in Southeast Asia, Social Movements in Latin America: Neoliberalism and Popular Resistance, and Southeast Asia and the Civil Society Gaze: Scoping a Contested Concept in Cambodia and Vietnam – provide a timely update on the contemporary landscape of social movements in Southeast Asia and Latin America. These works are also relevant for broader theoretical discussions on social movements and provide a basis for future interregional comparative studies.
The Limits and Potential of Liberal Democratisation in Southeast Asia
Authors: Peou Sorpong
Published: February 2019

This article argues that Southeast Asia is a region where uneven political development presents a theoretical challenge to the study of regime change and continuity in the academic field of comparative politics. Of the 11 political regimes, only Timor-Leste, the Philippines, and Indonesia can now be considered liberally democratic. However, these democracies are far from consolidated. The other eight regimes range from soft dictatorships to electoral authoritarian regimes and illiberal democracies. This article seeks to explain why no single theory adequately explains regime change and continuity in this region. Impediments to democratisation are many – one of which is the fact that traditional and undemocratic institutions remain strong and that transitions to civilian rule remain vulnerable to other powerful state institutions, most notably the armed forces.
ASEAN Enlargement and Norm Change -A Window of Opportunity for Democracy and Human Rights Entrepreneurs?
Authors: Radtke Kerstin
Published: February 2019

This paper discusses the accession of Myanmar to ASEAN and its effects on the emergence of fundamental political norms in ASEAN. The article first advances the theoretical idea of how accession demands towards Regional Organizations (ROs) open windows of opportunity for norm entrepreneurs to act for norm change in a Regional Organization. Secondly, these ideas are empirically illustrated by a case study on ASEAN's enlargement to include Myanmar. The tentative conclusion is that, being confronted with the accession of the highly stigmatised state of Myanmar, ASEAN was forced to position itself vis-à-vis this outcome, and to open itself up to discussions about fundamental norms and regional identity. This critical phase of transition mobilised norm entrepreneurs to push for norm change, and opened avenues for these entrepreneurs to contribute ideas regarding ASEAN's regional identity. By subsequently framing the discourse on human rights and democracy in Southeast Asia, and by successfully gaining access to the official ASEAN agenda, these entrepreneurs pressured ASEAN to be more precise about its norms. The discussion about stigmatised Myanmar thus introduced new ideas into the regional forum, and in the longer term may have contributed to ASEAN's identity-building and the concession of greater attention to democracy and human rights issues.
Oligarchy in Thailand?
Authors: Rhoden T. F.
Published: February 2019

A modern conception of oligarchy, which can be housed under an authoritarian regime as easily as it can under a liberal democratic one, can affect our understanding of the potential national political repercussions of extreme inequalities of wealth. This article has two goals: (1) to conceptually analyse the meaning of oligarchy; and (2) to make a descriptive case for its use in the Thai context. The test case of contemporary Thailand shows what exactly an oligarch or oligarchy means under a military regime and the potential effects for national politics of an oligarchy based on material wealth. Utilizing Jeffrey A. Winters’ Aristotelian-grounded conception of oligarchy for the contemporary world, this article argues that some political outcomes in Thailand are inexplicable without recourse to a modern variant of oligarchic theory and analysis.
Myanmar's China Policy since 2011: Determinants and Directions
Authors: Myoe Maung Aung
Published: February 2019

This paper argues that a key factor in Myanmar's new approach towards China since 2011 has been the Myanmar government's foreign policy goal to reintegrate itself into the international community. The success of this approach is dependent on Myanmar's rapprochement with the United States, which requires both domestic political reforms and a foreign policy realignment – a need to reduce Myanmar's dependence on China, particularly in the context of US–China strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific region. In the context of China–Myanmar relations, the factors that have influenced Myanmar's China policy since 2011 are growing anti-China sentiment in Myanmar, growing concern over China's interference in Myanmar affairs, and the rapprochement with the United States. Myanmar's China policy shift, in terms of direction, is by no means to seek to be independent of China, but rather for there to be an increased interdependence between the two countries.
Political Parties and Popular Representation in Myanmar's Democratisation Process
Authors: Stokke Kristian , Win Khine , Aung Soe Myint
Published: February 2019

The article examines the role of political parties in Myanmar's democratisation process. We argue that the substance of democratisation depends on popular representation through political parties but question their capacity to provide such representation. Examining capacity through the concept of party institutionalisation, we find that most parties have not been able to build effective organisational structures. However, we also find a degree of party institutionalisation in the form of rootedness in society. Political cleavages between those favouring authoritarian rule over democratic rule and Burman nationhood over ethnic notions of nationhood have produced divisions between state-centred parties associated with Myanmar's authoritarian legacy and society-centred pro-democracy and ethnic parties. Although being less dichotomous than in the past, we argue that these cleavages continue to provide a basis for party identity and rootedness in society. We conclude that further development of political parties and popular representation will be shaped by the relations between parties, the state, and society – where individual parties are shaped according to their tendencies towards state-centred cartel parties or society-centred mass parties.
After Indonesia's Ratification: The ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution and its Effectiveness as a Regional Environmental Governance Tool
Authors: Heilmann Daniel
Published: February 2019

On 20 January 2015 Indonesia deposited its instrument of ratification for the ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution with the ASEAN Secretariat, becoming the last ASEAN member state to join the treaty. Haze pollution poses a serious health threat to the people of Indonesia, Singapore and Malaysia, and for decades haze pollution has been a highly contentious issue among ASEAN member states. This article argues that Indonesia's ratification will not be an immediate game changer. The mechanisms of the agreement are too weak to contribute much to a reduction of haze pollution in the region. The agreement is designed according to the ASEAN way: a non-binding approach that is based on the principles of state sovereignty and non-intervention. This makes it unlikely that the agreement itself will bring about change, even now that all ASEAN member states have ratified it.
Can ASEAN Cope with China?
Authors: Beeson Mark
Published: February 2019

The rise of China is the most important development in East Asia in recent times. It presents major opportunities and challenges, if not threats, for ASEAN as a collective entity, and for the individual countries that compose it. Whether ASEAN can develop a collective, let alone effective response is far from clear. This paper explores and analyses the forces that are likely to determine the outcome.
Understanding the Oppressed: A Study of the Ahmadiyah and Their Strategies for Overcoming Adversity in Contemporary Indonesia
Authors: Connley Aleah
Published: February 2019

The Ahmadiyah is a highly controversial Islamic reformist movement that is persecuted throughout the Muslim world. In Indonesia, the movement's situation has become increasingly precarious with the growth of conservative Islam. This article examines the everyday experiences of oppression suffered by individual Ahmadis at the hands of the state and their Muslim opponents in Indonesia, and looks at their responses to these experiences. I found that Ahmadis employ six diverse strategies to emotionally, socially, and spiritually withstand adversity. These strategies are conceptualised under the following labels: ‘Fortitude through faith and spirituality’, ‘Rationalising oppression’, ‘Ideological manoeuvring’, ‘Acts of resistance’, ‘Harmonising identity’, and ‘Satisfying the need to belong’. I argue that the agency of Indonesian Ahmadis is embedded in these strategies, which mitigate their suffering, and at times seek to change oppressive social environments.
Can Social Protection Weaken Clientelism? Considering Conditional Cash Transfers as Political Reform in the Philippines
Authors: Swamy Arun R.
Published: February 2019

Since poverty is often believed to be a root cause of clientelism, government policies to reduce poverty should also help to reduce clientelism. However, scholars studying clientelism are more likely to view social policy as a potential resource for clientelist politicians. This article examines this paradox in the Philippine context by offering a general framework to identify when social welfare policies are likely to reduce clientelism, and by applying this framework to the Philippines, focusing on the Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino conditional cash transfer programme, or Pantawid. I argue that the policies that are most likely to undercut clientelism are universal social protection policies that provide poor families with security, although these are the least acceptable to middle-class taxpayers. This is exemplified by the Philippines, which has tended to introduce social policies that increase the scope for clientelism by making discretionary allocation more likely, rather than policies that offer income security to the poor. The Pantawid programme attempts to overcome these problems by introducing a centralised targeting mechanism to identify beneficiaries and by guaranteeing the benefit to all eligible families, but like all conditional cash transfer programs falls short of guaranteed and universal social protection.
Vietnam: Economic Strategy and Economic Reality
Authors: Fforde Adam
Published: February 2019

The paper examines the nature of the growing Vietnamese economy and its changing structural characteristics and contrasts this with two core elements of official thinking. The first element is the slogan of ‘industrialisation and modernisation’ (IM) and how this sits with the rather fast current growth in the services sectors, given the issues of transitioning through the recently reached ‘middle income status’. The second is that of “a socialist-oriented market economy” (SOME) with reference to its origins, the nature of debates around it and its positive and negative implications for Vietnam's development. Our basic conclusions are that IM is misplaced, as it ignores services and is out-of-date, and the SOME has largely been a somewhat confused and transparent fig-leaf for support for essentially private commercial interests associated with certain state conglomerates. Recent changes around the 2016 XIIth Congress suggest that lessons are being learned by some elements in the Party.
Resilience of the Communist Party of Vietnam's Authoritarian Regime since Đổi Mới
Authors: Nguyen Hai Hong
Published: February 2019

Unlike communist parties in the former Soviet Union and Eastern and Central Europe, the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV) has overcome crises to remain in power for the last 30 years and will most likely continue ruling in the coming decades. Strategies and tactics undertaken by the CPV are found to be identical to those canvassed in the extant literature on the durability of authoritarian regimes around the world. The present paper argues that the CPV's regime has been resilient thus far because it has successfully restored and maintained public trust, effectively constrained its opposition at home, and cleverly reduced external pressures. To support this argument, the analysis electively focuses on four aspects: (1) economic performance, (2) political flexibility, (3) repression of the opposition, and (4) expansion of international relations.
Vietnamese Civic Organisations: Supporters of or Obstacles to Further Democratisation? Results from an Empirical Survey
Authors: Wischermann Jörg , Cuong Bui The , Phuong Dang Thi Viet
Published: February 2019

In political science and in development cooperation, civic organisations (COs) under authoritarian rule are usually seen as supporters of processes that move towards democratisation. However, these organisations are sometimes criticised for their support of those in power. Within this context, critics refer to the fact that many COs have, for example, authoritarian intra-organisational structures. This characteristic clearly limits their potential to be supporters of democratisation processes. In this paper, we proceed from the assumption that Vietnamese COs can be both supporters of democracy and organisations that help to maintain authoritarian rule; they can sometimes even be both at the same time. COs are “polyvalent” (Kößler). More concretely, what COs are and which role(s) they play in the political system is mainly but not exclusively dependent on the impact the state has on them, and is at the same time dependent on the effects that those organisations have on the state.

The results from an empirical survey, supported by the German Research Council (2013–2016) and carried out as a co-operation between the Institute of Asian Studies/GIGA Hamburg and the Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences, suggest the following:

▪ Most Vietnamese COs are hierarchically structured, if not organised in an authoritarian way. They are not “schools of democracy”, in the sense of Tocqueville.

▪ Most Vietnamese COs that have engaged in the welfare provision sector, either willingly or unwillingly, have helped to foster the foundations of authoritarianism.

▪ In the field of economic policies, the COs invited by the state to participate in and contribute to the formulation of policies do help, overall, to secure existing power structures, even though these organisations also help change various economic policies and even though their activities produce some democracy-promoting effects.

▪ In the policy field of gender equality, women's rights, and rights of sexual minorities, the mass organisation Vietnam Women's Union supports the state's respective discourse. Some NGOs active in this policy field are doing both: They support and criticise the state's discourse on gender norms and the rights of sexual minorities.

In the conclusion, we answer the question of which Vietnamese COs can be seen as supporters of further democratisation and which can be classified as obstacles.
The Dark Side of Electoralism: Opinion Polls and Voting in the 2016 Philippine Presidential Election
Authors: Holmes Ronald D.
Published: February 2019

Despite the limits of elections as a mechanism to secure accountability and ensure substantive representation, the 2016 elections drew the highest turnout across elections held since the political transition in 1986, a clear indication of electoralism. The high turnout may be a result of a relatively tightly contested race, with each of the main contenders appealing to constituencies that they symbolically represent. Nonetheless, the 2016 Presidential elections remained personality-oriented, media driven and political clan dominated. The eventual winner, Rodrigo Roa Duterte, garnered the presidency given a combination of factors: the clarity of his campaign message – focused on curbing a single problem (criminality, in general, and the illegal drug trade, in particular) that he elevated as the most serious concern that the next president should address; significant support from a geographic area (Mindanao) and associated ethno-linguistic groups (i.e., Bisaya); and, serious questions of character and competence raised against his opponents (i.e. Binay, Poe and Roxas).