bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Clues to the identification of a seismogenic source from environmental effects: the case of the 1905 Calabria (Southern Italy) earthquake
Authors: Tertulliani A. , Cucci L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The 8 September 1905 Calabria (Southern Italy) earthquake belongs to a peculiar family of highly destructive (I0=XI) seismic events, occurred at the dawning of the instrumental seismology, for which the location, geometry and size of the causative source are still substantially unconstrained. During the century elapsed since the earthquake, previous Authors identified three different epicenters that are more than 50 km apart and proposed magnitudes ranging from M≤6.2 to M=7.9. Even larger uncertainties were found when the geometry of the earthquake source was estimated. In this study, we constrain the magnitude, location and kinematics of the 1905 earthquake through the analysis of the remarkable environmental effects produced by the event (117 reviewed observations at 73 different localities throughout Calabria). The data used in our analysis include ground effects (landslides, rock falls and lateral spreads) and hydrological changes (streamflow variations, liquefaction, rise of water temperature and turbidity). To better define the magnitude of the event we use a number of empirical relations between seismic source parameters and distribution of ground effects and hydrological changes. In order to provide constraints to the location of the event and to the geometry of the source, we reproduce the coseismic static strain associated with different possible 1905 causative faults and compare its pattern to the documented streamflow changes. From the analysis of the seismically-induced environmental changes we find that: 1) the 1905 earthquake had a minimum magnitude M=6.7; 2) the event occurred in an offshore area west of the epicenters proposed by the historical seismic Catalogs; 3) it most likely occurred along a 100° N oriented normal fault with a left-lateral component, consistently with the seismotectonic setting of the area.
Revising time series of the Elbe river discharge for flood frequency determination at gauge Dresden
Authors: Bartl S. , Schümberg S. , Deutsch M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The German research programme RIsk MAnagment of eXtreme flood events has accomplished the improvement of regional hazard assessment for the large rivers in Germany. Here we focused on the Elbe river at its gauge Dresden, which belongs to the oldest gauges in Europe with officially available daily discharge time series beginning on 1 January 1890. The project on the one hand aimed to extend and to revise the existing time series, and on the other hand to examine the variability of the Elbe river discharge conditions on a greater time scale. Therefore one major task were the historical searches and the examination of the retrieved documents and the contained information. After analysing this information the development of the river course and the discharge conditions were discussed. Using the provided knowledge, in an other subproject, a historical hydraulic model was established. Its results then again were used here. A further purpose was the determining of flood frequency based on all pre-processed data. The obtained knowledge about historical changes was also used to get an idea about possible future variations under climate change conditions. Especially variations in the runoff characteristic of the Elbe river over the course of the year were analysed. It succeeded to obtain a much longer discharge time series which contain fewer errors and uncertainties. Hence an optimized regional hazard assessment was realised.
The tsunami triggered by the 21 May 2003 Boumerdès-Zemmouri (Algeria) earthquake: field investigations on the French Mediterranean coast and tsunami modelling
Authors: Sahal A. , Roger J. , Allgeyer S. , Lemaire B. , Hébert H. , Schindelé F. , Lavigne F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A field survey was organized on the French Mediterranean coasts to investigate the effects of the tsunami induced by the 21 May 2003 Boumerdès-Zemmouri (Algeria) earthquake (Mw=6.9). The results show that eight harbours were affected by important sea level disturbances that caused material loss. Unfortunately, the low sampling rate of the French tide gage records (10 min) does not allow for a proper evaluation of the tsunami wave amplitudes since these amplitudes were probably underestimated in the harbours where these sensors are installed. The survey brings to light regional and local contrasts among the harbours' hydrological responses to the tsunami. To better understand these contrasts, a numerical simulation of the sea level elevations induced by the tsunami was conducted. The simulation showed a certain correlation between the field results and the wave amplification along the coast; however it underestimated the observed phenomena. Another simulation was then conducted using high resolution bathymetric grids (space step of 3 m) centred more specifically on 3 neighbouring harbours, however, again the simulation results did not match the amplitudes recorded through the observations. In order to better understand the wave amplification mechanisms inside each grid, a Gaussian signal was virtually broadcasted from the source to the harbours. Virtual sensors identified the periods which are stimulated – or not – by the arrival of the signal in each grid. Comparing these periods with those previously recorded emphasizes the proper period of each waterbody. This paper evaluates the limitations of such a study, focusing specifically on (1) the importance of having accurate and precise data about the source (the lack of information about the signal amplitude leads to an underestimation of the tsunami, thus reproducing only a fourth to a third of the observed phenomenon), (2) the need for networked tide gages with high resolution records and short sampling rates, and (3) the importance of conducting field studies immediately after a tsunami occurs.
Dealing with uncertainty: turbulent parameterizations and grid-spacing effects in numerical modelling of deep moist convective processes
Authors: Fiori E. , Parodi A. , Siccardi F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Computer power has grown to the point that very-fine-mesh mesoscale modelling is now possible. Going down through scales is clumsily supposed to reduce uncertainty and to improve the predictive ability of the models. This work provides a contribution to understand how the uncertainty in the numerical weather prediction (NWP) of severe weather events is affected by increasing the model grid resolution and by choosing a parameterization which is able to represent turbulent processes at such finer scales. A deep moist convective scenario, a supercell, in a simplified atmospheric setting is studied by mean of high resolution numerical simulations with COSMO-Model. Different turbulent closures are used and their impacts on the space-time properties of convective fields are discussed. The convective-resolving solutions adopting Large Eddy Simulation (LES) turbulent closure converge with respect to the overall flow field structure when grid spacing is properly reduced. By comparing the rainfall fields produced by the model on larger scales with those at the convergence scales it's possible to size up the uncertainty introduced by the modelling itself on the predicted ground effects in such simplified scenario.
A GIS-based numerical model for simulating the kinematics of mud and debris flows over complex terrain
Authors: Beguería S. , Van Asch Th. W. J. , Malet J.-P. , Gröndahl S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This article presents MassMov2D, a two-dimensional model of mud and debris flow dynamics over complex topography, based on a numerical integration of the depth-averaged motion equations using a shallow water approximation. The core part of the model was implemented using the GIS scripting language PCRaster. This environment provides visualization of the results through map animations and time series, and a user-friendly interface. The constitutive equations and the numerical solution adopted in MassMov2D are presented in this article. The model was applied to two field case studies of mud flows on torrential alluvial fans, one in the Austrian Tyrol (Wartschenbach torrent) and the other in the French Alps (Faucon torrent). Existing data on the debris flow volume, input discharge and deposits were used to back-analyze those events and estimate the values of the leading parameters. The results were compared with modeling codes used by other authors for the same case studies. The results obtained with MassMov2D matched well with the observed debris flow deposits, and are in agreement with those obtained using alternative codes.
Inundation scenarios for flood damage evaluation in polder areas
Authors: Bouwer L. M. , Bubeck P. , Wagtendonk A. J. , Aerts J. C. J. H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We present an approach for flood damage simulations through the creation of a comparatively large number of inundation scenarios for a polder area, using a high-resolution digital elevation model. In particular, the method could be used for detailed scenario studies of the impact of future socioeconomic and climatic developments on flood risks. The approach is applied to a case-study area in the south of the Netherlands along the river Meuse. The advantage of our approach is that a large number of potential flood events can be created relatively fast without hydrodynamical calculations, and that it can be applied to high-resolution elevation models and for large areas. The large number of flood scenarios and the high horizontal resolution reduces at least part of the uncertainties encountered in flood loss modelling. The approach with a low horizontal-resolution (100-m) for loss modelling results in an overestimation of losses by up to 22% for high density urban areas, and underestimation of 100% for infrastructure, compared to the high-resolution (25-m). Loss modelling at 5-m horizontal resolution shows that aggregate losses may be overestimated by some 4.3%, compared to the 25-m resolution. The generation of a large variety of inundation scenarios provides a basis for constructing loss probability curves. The calculated range and expected values of damages compare reasonably well with earlier independent estimates.
Identification of active release planes using ground-based differential InSAR at the Randa rock slope instability, Switzerland
Authors: Gischig V. , Loew S. , Kos A. , Moore J. R. , Raetzo H. , Lemy F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Five ground-based differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar (GB-DInSAR) surveys were conducted between 2005 and 2007 at the rock slope instability at Randa, Switzerland. Resultant displacement maps revealed, for the first time, the presence of an active basal rupture zone and a lateral release surface daylighting on the exposed 1991 failure scarp. Structures correlated with the boundaries of interferometric displacement domains were confirmed using a helicopter-based LiDAR DTM and oblique aerial photography. Former investigations at the site failed to conclusively detect these active release surfaces essential for kinematic and hazard analysis of the instability, although their existence had been hypothesized. The determination of the basal and lateral release planes also allowed a more accurate estimate of the currently unstable volume of 5.7±1.5 million m3. The displacement patterns reveal that two different kinematic behaviors dominate the instability, i.e. toppling above 2200 m and translational failure below. In the toppling part of the instability the areas with the highest GB-DInSAR displacements correspond to areas of enhanced micro-seismic activity. The observation of only few strongly active discontinuities daylighting on the 1991 failure surface points to a rather uniform movement in the lower portion of the instability, while most of the slip occurs along the basal rupture plane. Comparison of GB-DInSAR displacements with mapped discontinuities revealed correlations between displacement patterns and active structures, although spatial offsets occur as a result of the effective resolution of GB-DInSAR. Similarly, comparisons with measurements from total station surveys generally showed good agreement. Discrepancies arose in several cases due to local movement of blocks, the size of which could not be resolved using GB-DInSAR.
A contribution to improved flood magnitude estimation in base of palaeoflood record and climatic implications – Guadiana River (Iberian Peninsula)
Authors: Ortega J. A. , Garzón G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Guadiana River has a significant record of historical floods, but the systematic data record is only 59 years. From layers left by ancient floods we know about we can add new data to the record, and we can estimate maximum discharges of other floods only known by the moment of occurrence and by the damages caused. A hydraulic model has been performed in the area of Pulo de Lobo and calibrated by means of the rating curve of Pulo do Lobo Station. The palaeofloods have been dated by means of 14C y 137Cs. As non-systematic information has been used in order to calculate distribution functions, the quantiles have changed with respect to the same function when using systematic information. The results show a variation in the curves that can be blamed on the human transformations responsible for changing the hydrologic conditions as well as on the latest climate changes. High magnitude floods are related to cold periods, especially at transitional moments of change from cold to warm periods. This tendency has changed from the last medium-high magnitude flood, which took place in a systematic period. Both reasons seem to justify a change in the frequency curves indicating a recent decrease in the return period of big floods over 8000 m3 s−1. The palaeofloods indicate a bigger return period for the same water level discharge thus showing the river basin reference values in its natural condition previous to the transformation of the basin caused by anthropic action.
Resident perception of volcanic hazards and evacuation procedures
Authors: Bird D. K. , Gisladottir G. , Dominey-Howes D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Katla volcano, located beneath the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland, is capable of producing catastrophic jökulhlaup. The Icelandic Civil Protection (ICP), in conjunction with scientists, local police and emergency managers, developed mitigation strategies for possible jökulhlaup produced during future Katla eruptions. These strategies were tested during a full-scale evacuation exercise in March 2006. A positive public response during a volcanic crisis not only depends upon the public's knowledge of the evacuation plan but also their knowledge and perception of the possible hazards. To improve the effectiveness of residents' compliance with warning and evacuation messages it is important that emergency management officials understand how the public interpret their situation in relation to volcanic hazards and their potential response during a crisis and apply this information to the ongoing development of risk mitigation strategies. We adopted a mixed methods approach in order to gain a broad understanding of residents' knowledge and perception of the Katla volcano in general, jökulhlaup hazards specifically and the regional emergency evacuation plan. This entailed field observations during the major evacuation exercise, interviews with key emergency management officials and questionnaire survey interviews with local residents. Our survey shows that despite living within the hazard zone, many residents do not perceive that their homes could be affected by a jökulhlaup, and many participants who perceive that their homes are safe, stated that they would not evacuate if an evacuation warning was issued. Alarmingly, most participants did not receive an evacuation message during the exercise. However, the majority of participants who took part in the exercise were positive about its implementation. This assessment of resident knowledge and perception of volcanic hazards and the evacuation plan is the first of its kind in this region. Our data can be used as a baseline by the ICP for more detailed studies in Iceland's volcanic regions.
Towards operational near real-time flood detection using a split-based automatic thresholding procedure on high resolution TerraSAR-X data
Authors: Martinis S. , Twele A. , Voigt S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper, an automatic near-real time (NRT) flood detection approach is presented, which combines histogram thresholding and segmentation based classification, specifically oriented to the analysis of single-polarized very high resolution Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite data. The challenge of SAR-based flood detection is addressed in a completely unsupervised way, which assumes no training data and therefore no prior information about the class statistics to be available concerning the area of investigation. This is usually the case in NRT-disaster management, where the collection of ground truth information is not feasible due to time-constraints. A simple thresholding algorithm can be used in the most of the cases to distinguish between "flood" and "non-flood" pixels in a high resolution SAR image to detect the largest part of an inundation area. Due to the fact that local gray-level changes may not be distinguished by global thresholding techniques in large satellite scenes the thresholding algorithm is integrated into a split-based approach for the derivation of a global threshold by the analysis and combination of the split inherent information. The derived global threshold is then integrated into a multi-scale segmentation step combining the advantages of small-, medium- and large-scale per parcel segmentation. Experimental investigations performed on a TerraSAR-X Stripmap scene from southwest England during large scale flooding in the summer 2007 show high classification accuracies of the proposed split-based approach in combination with image segmentation and optional integration of digital elevation models.
Comparative analysis of model behaviour for flood prediction purposes using Self-Organizing Maps
Authors: Herbst M. , Casper M. C. , Grundmann J. , Buchholz O.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Distributed watershed models constitute a key component in flood forecasting systems. It is widely recognized that models because of their structural differences have varying capabilities of capturing different aspects of the system behaviour equally well. Of course, this also applies to the reproduction of peak discharges by a simulation model which is of particular interest regarding the flood forecasting problem. In our study we use a Self-Organizing Map (SOM) in combination with index measures which are derived from the flow duration curve in order to examine the conditions under which three different distributed watershed models are capable of reproducing flood events present in the calibration data. These indices are specifically conceptualized to extract data on the peak discharge characteristics of model output time series which are obtained from Monte-Carlo simulations with the distributed watershed models NASIM, LARSIM and WaSIM-ETH. The SOM helps to analyze this data by producing a discretized mapping of their distribution in the index space onto a two dimensional plane such that their pattern and consequently the patterns of model behaviour can be conveyed in a comprehensive manner. It is demonstrated how the SOM provides useful information about details of model behaviour and also helps identifying the model parameters that are relevant for the reproduction of peak discharges and thus for flood prediction problems. It is further shown how the SOM can be used to identify those parameter sets from among the Monte-Carlo data that most closely approximate the peak discharges of a measured time series. The results represent the characteristics of the observed time series with partially superior accuracy than the reference simulation obtained by implementing a simple calibration strategy using the global optimization algorithm SCE-UA. The most prominent advantage of using SOM in the context of model analysis is that it allows to comparatively evaluating the data from two or more models. Our results highlight the individuality of the model realizations in terms of the index measures and shed a critical light on the use and implementation of simple and yet too rigorous calibration strategies.
The European storm Kyrill in January 2007: synoptic evolution, meteorological impacts and some considerations with respect to climate change
Authors: Fink A. H. , Brücher T. , Ermert V. , Krüger A. , Pinto J. G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The synoptic evolution and some meteorological impacts of the European winter storm Kyrill that swept across Western, Central, and Eastern Europe between 17 and 19 January 2007 are investigated. The intensity and large storm damage associated with Kyrill is explained based on synoptic and mesoscale environmental storm features, as well as on comparisons to previous storms. Kyrill appeared on weather maps over the US state of Arkansas about four days before it hit Europe. It underwent an explosive intensification over the Western North Atlantic Ocean while crossing a very intense zonal polar jet stream. A superposition of several favourable meteorological conditions west of the British Isles caused a further deepening of the storm when it started to affect Western Europe. Evidence is provided that a favourable alignment of three polar jet streaks and a dry air intrusion over the occlusion and cold fronts were causal factors in maintaining Kyrill's low pressure very far into Eastern Europe. Kyrill, like many other strong European winter storms, was embedded in a pre-existing, anomalously wide, north-south mean sea-level pressure (MSLP) gradient field. In addition to the range of gusts that might be expected from the synoptic-scale pressure field, mesoscale features associated with convective overturning at the cold front are suggested as the likely causes for the extremely damaging peak gusts observed at many lowland stations during the passage of Kyrill's cold front. Compared to other storms, Kyrill was by far not the most intense system in terms of core pressure and circulation anomaly. However, the system moved into a pre-existing strong MSLP gradient located over Central Europe which extended into Eastern Europe. This fact is considered determinant for the anomalously large area affected by Kyrill. Additionally, considerations of windiness in climate change simulations using two state-of-the-art regional climate models driven by ECHAM5 indicate that not only Central, but also Eastern Central Europe may be affected by higher surface wind speeds at the end of the 21st century. These changes are partially associated with the increased pressure gradient over Europe which is identified in the ECHAM5 simulations. Thus, with respect to the area affected, as well as to the synoptic and mesoscale storm features, it is proposed that Kyrill may serve as an interesting study case to assess future storm impacts.
Large and small scale wave forecast in the Mediterranean Sea
Authors: Bertotti L. , Cavaleri L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We describe the implementation of an operational high resolution wind and wave forecasting system in the Mediterranean Sea, and then on a limited area centred on the south-east part of Italy, covering parts of the Adriatic and the Ionian seas. We analyse the performance at the two different resolutions during the first four months of operation, using the wind and wave data provided by the QuikSCAT scatterometer, and the Jason and Envisat altimeters. Useful accurate forecasts are found up to 72 h range, the maximum operational one. As expected, we find that the limited area models outperform both the wind and wave global or larger scale model results. However, we still find an appreciable underestimate by the models for surface wind speed and hence wave height, often concentrated on specific events.
The risk concept and its application in natural hazard risk management in Switzerland
Authors: Bründl M. , Romang H. E. , Bischof N. , Rheinberger C. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Over the last ten years, a risk-based approach to manage natural hazards – termed the risk concept – has been introduced to the management of natural hazards in Switzerland. Large natural hazard events, new political initiatives and limited financial resources have led to the development and introduction of new planning instruments and software tools that should support natural hazard engineers and planners to effectively and efficiently deal with natural hazards. Our experience with these new instruments suggests an improved integration of the risk concept into the community of natural hazard engineers and planners. Important factors for the acceptance of these new instruments are the integration of end-users during the development process, the knowledge exchange between science, developers and end-users as well as training and education courses for users. Further improvements require the maintenance of this knowledge exchange and a mindful adaptation of the instruments to case-specific circumstances.
Influences of Leaf Area Index estimations on water balance modeling in a Mediterranean semi-arid basin
Authors: Gigante V. , Iacobellis V. , Manfreda S. , Milella P. , Portoghese I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the present work, the role played by vegetation parameters, necessary to the hydrological distributed modeling, is investigated focusing on the correct use of remote sensing products for the evaluation of hydrological losses in the soil water balance. The research was carried out over a medium-sized river basin in Southern Italy, where the vegetation status is characterised through a data-set of multi-temporal NDVI images. The model adopted uses one layer of vegetation whose status is defined by the Leaf Area Index (LAI), which is often obtained from NDVI images. The inherent problem is that the vegetation heterogeneity – including soil disturbances – has a large influence on the spectral bands and so the relation between LAI and NDVI is not unambiguous. We present a rationale for the basin scale calibration of a non-linear NDVI-LAI regression, based on the comparison between NDVI values and literature LAI estimations of the vegetation cover in recognized landscape elements of the study catchment. Adopting a process-based model (DREAM) with a distributed parameterisation, the influence of different NDVI-LAI regression models on main features of water balance predictions is investigated. The results show a significant sensitivity of the hydrological losses and soil water regime to the alternative LAI estimations. These crucially affects the model performances especially in low-flows simulation and in the identification of the intermittent regime.
Bounded cascade clouds: albedo and effective thickness
Authors: Cahalan R. F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. If climate models produced clouds having liquid water amounts close to those observed, they would compute a mean albedo that is often much too large, due to the treatment of clouds as plane-parallel. An approximate lower-bound for this "plane-parallel albedo bias" may be obtained from a fractal model having a range of optical thicknesses similar to those observed in marine stratocumulus, since they are more nearly plane-parallel than most other cloud types. We review and extend results from a model which produces a distribution of liquid water path having a lognormal-like probability density and a power-law wavenumber spectrum, with parameters determined by stratocumulus observations. As the spectral exponent approaches -1, the simulated cloud approaches a well-known multifractal, referred to as the "singular model", but when the exponent is -5/3, similar to what is observed, the cloud exhibits qualitatively different scaling properties, the socalled "bounded model". The mean albedo for bounded cascade clouds is a function of a fractal parameter, 0 << 1, as well as the usual plane-parallel parameters such as single scattering albedo, asymmetry, solar zenith angle, and mean vertical optical thickness. A simple expression is derived to determine from the variance of the logarithm of the vertically-integrated liquid water. The albedo is shown to be approximated well by the plane-parallel albedo of a cloud having an "effective" vertical optical thickness, smaller than the mean thickness by a factor χ(f), which is given as an analytic function of f. California stratocumulus have a mean fractal parameter (f) ≈ 0.5, relative albedo bias of 15%, and an effective thickness 30% smaller than the mean thickness (χ ≈ 0.7). For typical observed values of mean liquid water and (f), the effective thickness approximation gives a plane-parallel albedo within 3% of the mean albedo.
Nonlinear interaction between long inertio-gravity and rossby waves
Authors: Falkovich G. , Kuznetsov E. , Medvedev S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The equations describing the interaction of long inertio-gravity (IG) waves with the Rossby waves are derived. Due to remarkable cancellations, the interaction is shown to be anomalously weak. As a result, an inverse cascade of turbulence produces wave condensate of large amplitude so that wave breaking with front creation can occur.
Response of an ocean-atmosphere climate model to Milankovic forcing
Authors: Posmentier E. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. There is considerable evidence in support of Milankovic's theory that variations in high-latitude summer insolation caused by Earth orbital variations are the cause of the Pleistocene ice cycles. The enigmatic discrepancy between the spectra of Milankovic forcing and of Pleistocene climate variations is believed to be resolved by the slow, nonlinear response of ice sheets to changes in solar seasonality. An experiment with a preliminary version of a 14-region atmosphere/snow/upper ocean climate model demonstrates that the response of the ocean-atmosphere system alone to Milankovic forcing is capable of driving ice cycles with the observed spectrum. This occurs because of the highly nonlinear response of both the thermal seasons and the annual mean temperature to solar seasons, which is caused in turn by the highly nonlinear feedback between temperature and snow and sea ice.
Empirically derived climate predictability over the extratropical northern hemisphere
Authors: Elsner J. B. , Tsonis A. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A novel application of a technique developed from chaos theory is used in describing seasonal to interannual climate predictability over the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The technique is based on an empirical forecast scheme - local approximation in a reconstructed phase space - for time-series data. Data are monthly 500 hPa heights on a latitude-longitude grid covering the NH from 20° N to the equator. Predictability is estimated based on the linear correlation between actual and predicted heights averaged over a forecast range of one- to twelve.month lead. The method is capable of extracting the major climate signals on this time scale including ENSO and the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Fractal trajectories in a numerical model of the upper Indian Ocean
Authors: Meyers S. D. , Magnan J. F. , O'Brien J. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A wind-driven numerical model of the Indian Ocean is used to examine the horizontal statistics of hundreds of passive tracers spread evenly over the model domain. The distribution covers several dynamically distinct regions, revealing a variety of Lagrangian behaviours associated with different geographic locations. In particular, a cluster of trajectories with scaling dimension as large as 1.3 exists throughout the equatorial zone. Spectral analysis of trajectory displacements indicates mixed Rossby-gravity waves are involved in the production of some fractal trajectories.
Testing for nonlinearity in radiocarbon data
Authors: Kurths J. , Schwarz U. , Sonett C. P. , Parlitz U.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The radiocarbon record that has been extended from 7199 BC to 1891 AD is of fundamental importance to understand century-scale variations of solar activity. We have, therefore, studied how to extract information from dynamic reconstructions of this observational record. Using some rather unusual methods of nonlinear dynamics, we have found that the data are significantly different from linear coloured noise and that there is some evidence of nonlinear behaviour. The method of recurrence plots exhibits that the grand minima of solar activity are quite different in their recurrence. Most remarkably, it suggests that the recent epoch seems to be similar to the Medieval maximum.
On ion-cyclotron-resonance heating of the corona and solar wind
Authors: Marsch E. , Vocks C. , Tu C.-Y.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper concisely summarizes and critically reviews recent work by the authors on models of the heating of the solar corona by resonance of ions with high-frequency waves (up to the proton cyclotron frequency). The quasi-linear theory of pitch angle diffusion is presented in connection with relevant solar wind proton observations. Hybrid fluid-kinetic model equations, which include wave-particle interactions and collisions, are derived. Numerical solutions are discussed, representative of the inner corona and near-Sun solar wind. A semi-kinetic model for reduced velocity distributions is presented, yielding kinetic results for heavy ions in the solar corona. It is concluded that a self-consistent treatment of particle distributions and wave spectra is required, in order to adequately describe coronal physics and to obtain agreement with observations.
Solitons and oscillitons in multi-ion space plasmas
Authors: Sauer K. , Dubinin E. , McKenzie J. F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. It is well known that additional low-frequency waves arise when a second ion population is added to a plasma normally consisting of protons and electrons. Here, we investigate stationary structures streaming with a sub-fast speed in such a bi-ion plasma. It is shown that in addition to the usual "solitons", which have already been described for a single-ion plasma, a new type of stationary structure occurs due to the second ion population. This structure is associated with complex solutions of the linear dispersion relation in certain regions of the wave number-obliquity space. This implies that the corresponding soliton structure exhibits an oscillating spatial structure superposed on the usual spatial growth or decay. The full-blown solution of the nonlinear equations confirms that this is indeed the case. The related structure is called an "oscilliton". Examples of both types of stationary nonlinear waves (solitons and oscillitons), which may exist in a bi-ion plasma are given.
Non-equilibrium quasi-stationary states in a magnetized plasma
Authors: Rypdal K. , Paulsen J.-V. , Garcia O. E. , Ratynskaia S. V. , Demidov V. I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Non-equilibrium quasi-stationary states resulting from curvature driven interchange instabilities and drift-wave instabilities in a low beta, weakly ionized, magnetized plasma are investigated in the context of laboratory experiments in a toroidal configuration. Analytic modelling, numerical simulations and experimental results are discussed with emphasis on identifying the unstable modes and understanding the physics of anomalous particle and energy fluxes and their linkage to self-organized pressure profiles.
Statistics of locally coupled ocean and atmosphere intraseasonal anomalies in Reanalysis and AMIP data
Authors: Peña M. , Kalnay E. , Cai M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We apply a simple dynamical rule to determine the dominant forcing direction in locally coupled ocean-atmosphere anomalies in the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/ NCAR) reanalysis data. The rule takes into account the phase relationship between the low-level vorticity anomalies and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies. Analysis of the frequency of persistent coupled anomalies for five-day average data shows that, in general, the ocean tends to force the atmosphere in the tropics while the atmosphere tends to force the ocean in the extratropics. The results agree well with those obtained independently using lagged correlations between atmospheric and oceanic variables, suggesting that the dynamical rule is generally valid. A similar procedure carried out using data from the NCEP global model run with prescribed SST (in which the coupling is one-way, with the ocean always forcing the atmosphere) produces fewer coupled anomalies in the extratropics. They indicate, not surprisingly, an increase in ocean-driving anomalies in the model. In addition, and very importantly, there is a strong reduction of persistent atmosphere-driving anomalies, indicating that the one-way interaction of the ocean in the model run may provide a spurious negative feedback that damps atmospheric anomalies faster than observed.
Solitary potential structures observed in the magnetosheath by the Cluster spacecraft
Authors: Pickett J. S. , Menietti J. D. , Gurnett D. A. , Tsurutani B. , Kintner P. M. , Klatt E. , Balogh A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Bipolar pulses of ~ 25-100 µs in duration have been observed in the wave electric field data obtained by the Wideband plasma wave instrument on the Cluster spacecraft in the dayside magnetosheath. These pulses are similar in almost all respects to those observed on several spacecraft over the last few years. They represent solitary potential structures, and in this case, electron phase space holes. When the time series data containing the bipolar pulses on Cluster are transformed to the frequency domain by a windowed FFT, the pulses appear as typical broad-band features, extending from the low-frequency cutoff of the bandpass filter, ~ 1 kHz, up to as great as 20-40 kHz in some cases, with decreasing intensity as the frequency increases. The upper frequency cutoff of the broad band is an indication of the individual pulse durations (1/f). The solitary potential structures are detected when the local magnetic field is contained primarily in the spin plane, indicating that they propagate along the magnetic field. Their frequency extent and intensity seem to increase as the angle between the directions of the magnetic field and the plasma flow decreases from 90°. Of major significance is the finding that the overall profile of the broad-band features observed simultaneously by two Cluster spacecraft, separated by a distance of over 750 km, are strikingly similar in terms of onset times, frequency extent, intensity, and termination. This implies that the generation region of the solitary potential structures observed in the magnetosheath near the bow shock is very large and may be located at or near the bow shock, or be connected with the bow shock in some way.
Development of internal solitary waves in various thermocline regimes - a multi-modal approach
Authors: Gerkema T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A numerical analysis is made on the appearance of oceanic internal solitary waves in a multi-modal setting. This is done for observed profiles of stratification from the Sulu Sea and the Bay of Biscay, in which thermocline motion is dominated by the first and third mode, respectively. The results show that persistent solitary waves occur only in the former case, in accordance with the observations. In the Bay of Biscay much energy is transferred from the third mode to lower modes, implying that a uni-modal approach would not have been appropriate. To elaborate on these results in a systematic way, a simple model for the stratification is used; an interpretation is given in terms of regimes of thermocline strength.
Clarification of the Hall effect as an energy transfer mechanism in a theory of the Earth’s magnetic field and sunspots
Authors: de Paor A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Clarification is offered of the energy transfer role played by the Hall effect in a recent paper: de Paor, A., A theory of the Earth's magnetic field and of sunspots, based on a self-excited dynamo incorporating the Hall effect, Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 8, 265-279, 2001.
Increasing the horizontal resolution of ensemble forecasts at CMC
Authors: Pellerin G. , Lefaivre L. , Houtekamer P. , Girard C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Ensemble forecasts are run operationally since February 1998 at the Canadian Meteorological Centre, with outputs up to ten days. The ensemble size was increased from eight to sixteen members in August 1999. The method of producing the perturbed analyses consists of running independent assimilation cycles that use perturbed sets of observations and are driven by eight different models, mainly different in their physical parameterizations. Perturbed analyses are doubled by taking opposite pairs. A multi-model approach is then used to obtain the forecasts. The ensemble output has been used to generate several products. In view of increasing computing facilities, the ensemble prediction system horizontal resolution was increased to TL149 in June 2001. Heights at 500 hPa and mean sea-level pressure maps are regularly used. Charts of precipitation with the probability of precipitation being above various thresholds are also produced at each run. The probabilistic forecast of the 24-h accumulated precipitation has shown skill as demonstrated by the relative operating characteristic (ROC). Verifications of the ensemble forecasts will be presented.
Scaling statistics in a critical, nonlinear physical model of tropical oceanic rainfall
Authors: Nordstrom K. M. , Gupta V. K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Over the last two decades, concepts of scale invariance have come to the fore in both modeling and data analysis in hydrological precipitation research. With the advent of the use of the multiplicative random cascade model, these concepts have become increasingly more important. However, unifying this statistical view of the phenomenon with the physics of rainfall has proven to be a rather nontrivial task. In this paper, we present a simple model, developed entirely from qualitative physical arguments, without invoking any statistical assumptions, to represent tropical atmospheric convection over the ocean. The model is analyzed numerically. It shows that the data from the model rainfall look very spiky, as if generated from a random field model. They look qualitatively similar to real rainfall data sets from Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE). A critical point is found in a model parameter corresponding to the Convective Inhibition (CIN), at which rainfall changes abruptly from non-zero to a uniform zero value over the entire domain. Near the critical value of this parameter, the model rainfall field exhibits multifractal scaling determined from a fractional wetted area analysis and a moment scaling analysis. It therefore must exhibit long-range spatial correlations at this point, a situation qualitatively similar to that shown by multiplicative random cascade models and GATE rainfall data sets analyzed previously (Over and Gupta, 1994; Over, 1995). However, the scaling exponents associated with the model data are different from those estimated with real data. This comparison identifies a new theoretical framework for testing diverse physical hypotheses governing rainfall based in empirically observed scaling statistics.
Fractional Fourier approximations for potential gravity waves on deep water
Authors: Lukomsky V. P. , Gandzha I. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the framework of the canonical model of hydrodynamics, where fluid is assumed to be ideal and incompressible, waves are potential, two-dimensional, and symmetric, the authors have recently reported the existence of a new type of gravity waves on deep water besides well studied Stokes waves (Lukomsky et al., 2002b). The distinctive feature of these waves is that horizontal water velocities in the wave crests exceed the speed of the crests themselves. Such waves were found to describe irregular flows with stagnation point inside the flow domain and discontinuous streamlines near the wave crests. In the present work, a new highly efficient method for computing steady potential gravity waves on deep water is proposed to examine the character of singularity of irregular flows in more detail. The method is based on the truncated fractional approximations for the velocity potential in terms of the basis functions 1/(1 - exp(y0 - y -  ix))n, y0 being a free parameter. The non-linear transformation of the horizontal scale x = c - g sin c, 0  < g  <  1,  is additionally applied to concentrate a numerical emphasis on the crest region of a wave for accelerating the convergence of the series. For lesser computational time, the advantage in accuracy over ordinary Fourier expansions in terms of the basis functions exp(n(y + ix))  was found to be from one to ten decimal orders for steep Stokes waves and up to one decimal digit for irregular flows. The data obtained supports the following conjecture: irregular waves to all appearance represent a family of sharp-crested waves like the limiting Stokes wave but of lesser amplitude.
Non-linear analysis of geomagnetic time series from Etna volcano
Authors: Currenti G. , Del Negro C. , Fortuna L. , Napoli R. , Vicari A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. An intensive nonlinear analysis of geomagnetic time series from the magnetic network on Etna volcano was carried out to investigate the dynamical behavior of magnetic anomalies in volcanic areas. The short-term predictability of the geomagnetic time series was evaluated to establish a possible low-dimensional deterministic dynamics. We estimated the predictive ability of both a nonlinear forecasting technique and a global autoregressive model by comparing the prediction errors. Our findings highlight that volcanomagnetic signals are the result of complex processes that cannot easily be predicted. There is slight evidence based on nonlinear predictions, that the geomagnetic time series are to be governed by many variables, whose time evolution could be better regarded as arising from complex high dimensional processes.
Instabilities in a thin current sheet and their consequences
Authors: Singh N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Using a fully 3-D particle in-cell simulation, we studied the electrodynamics of a thin current sheet (CS). Starting with a uniform plasma and anti-parallel magnetic field, Harris equilibrium is achieved during the early stage of the simulation. In the processes of reaching the equilibrium, both electrons and ions in the newly formed CS are energized and develop pitch-angle anisotropies. We find two distinct stages of primarily electrostatic instabilities; in the first stage the relative drift between electrons and ions drives the instability in the central regions of the CS. The electrostatic fluctuations scatter electrons causing current disruption in the central region. The associated reduction in the average drift velocity of the current-carrying electrons generates sheared flow. The second stage of the instability begins when the drift velocity develops a minimum in the central plane. Then the shear and the growing electrostatic fluctuations under the condition of the maintained anti-parallel driving magnetic field configuration feed each other making the instability explosive. The growing fluctuations create plasma clumps as the electrons and ions are progressively trapped in the large-amplitude waves. The density clumping also generates clumps in the current. The non-uniform current distribution causes magnetic reconnection, accompanied by heating of electrons and ion at a fast rate and nearly complete bifurcation of the current sheet. Anomalous resistivity during different stages of the evolution of the CS is calculated and compared against theory.