bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Communication—Value conflicts between professional and social responsibility
Authors: Glass H. Bentley
Published: November 2008

The AAAS Committee on Scientific Freedom and Responsibility is undertaking a range of activities directed towards resolving value conflicts between individual scientists or engineers and the society in which they work. The Committee is reviewing individual cases involving allegations of infringement of scientific freedom in the United States and foreign countries, and is also developing materials which address the broader patterns of value conflicts in the areas of professional and social responsibilities, the boundaries of scientific freedom, and science education.
Constrained Optimization of a University Administrator's Preference Function
Authors: Hopkins David S. P. , Larréché Jean-Claude , Massy William F.
Published: November 2008

Universities are complex institutions with multidimensional objectives. Lack of understanding of the “production process” for teaching and research, and a lack of approved procedures for making cost allocations, make it difficult to organize formal planning systems at the level of an academic department. At the same time, planning at the top administration level has been hampered by a lack of understanding of how primary planning variables are interrelated both through financial constraints and (usually unspecified) criteria for choice. This paper reports on a field test of various approaches for obtaining and quantifying subjective estimates of preference for academic outcomes in terms of a small set of university planning variables. The resulting preference functions were combined in a mathematical programming model with constraints on budget balance and growth to yield “optimal” university configurations.
Multiteam, Multiproject Research and Development Planning with GERT
Authors: Moore Laurence J. , Taylor Bernard W.
Published: November 2008

This paper reports on a simulation study of multiple research and development projects that are worked on concurrently and sequentially by more than one research team. The technique employed in the modeling and simulation effort was GERT, which was used because of its capability to incorporate the probabilistic outcomes and feedback loops common to R&D projects. The GERT (Graphical Evaluation and Review Technique) includes the modeling of systems in network form and analysis through simulation. It is an important example of technological spin-off from space science research. GERT provides the capability to model and analyze networks of a very general form. Some of the features included in GERT networking are probabilistic branching (stochastic models), network looping (feedback loops), multiple sink nodes (multiple outcomes), multiple node realizations (repeat events), and multiple probability distributions (assigned to activity times). GERT networks are typically analyzed using the GERTS IIIZ simulation package, which provides statistics on project times and cost.

Results of the simulation included statistical data on individual project duration and cost as well as overall network time and cost. These results were employed to provide management with an evaluation of different model configurations, prepare overall time and cost estimates as inputs to contract negotiations and to plan and schedule manpower, equipment and capital. Sensitivity analysts was employed to determine key stages in the R&D process where changes in success-failing probabilities might reduce network time and cost. Implementation experiences validated the model as satisfactory with the exception of several minor problems.
A Quantitative Model to Plan Regional Health Facility Systems
Authors: Dökmeci Vedia F.
Published: November 2008

This paper presents a quantitative planning model to determine the optimal characteristics (number, size and locations) of a regional health facility system. The system consists of a medical center, intermediate and local hospitals, and health centers. The quantitative model is based on the minimization of the total cost (sum of the transportation and facility costs) to the society. The optimal characteristics of the system are obtained using a heuristic method which includes both interactions of sublevel hospitals and environmental conditions as well. A numerical example is given to illustrate the computational procedure.
Joint Economically Optimal Design of X̄ and R Control Charts
Authors: Saniga Erwin M.
Published: November 2008

In this paper, we develop an expected cost model for a process whose mean is controlled by an X̄ chart and whose variance is controlled by an R chart. The expected cost comprises the fixed and variable costs of sampling, the cost of investigating and correcting the process when at least one control chart indicates that the process parameters have shifted, and the cost of producing defective units. We use a search procedure to determine the sample size, interval between samples and control limits for both charts that minimize the expected cost. Optimal solutions to numerical examples are presented. A sensitivity analysis of the model is performed. In addition, we find the optimal interval between samples and the expected cost for several examples with large shifts in the mean and variance where Shewhart's heuristic design is used in place of the optimal design. Comparison of the expected cost of the optimal design to the expected cost of Shewhart's design shows an increase in expected cost of only 0.4 to 8.2 percent for the latter design. But other situations are discussed and examples presented which indicate that the optimal design is preferred.
A Multiple Time Series Approach to Modeling the Manufacturing Job-Shop as a Network of Queues
Authors: Steudel Harold J. , Pandit S. M. , Wu S. M.
Published: November 2008

The behavior of a uniformly sampled network of job-shop queues is characterized and interpreted using multiple time series. An analysis of actual queue data for a network of five functionally related machine centers shows that queue behavior is adequately described as a first order vector valued autoregressive model. This model describes the stochastic nature of each queue in the shop and its relationship to the other queues comprising the network. A network of queues obtained from simulating this job-shop under a composite dispatching rule is also modeled and interpreted as a first order, multivariate autoregressive process.
A Multiple-Objective Policy Model: Results of an Application to a Developing Country
Authors: Legasto Augusto A.
Published: November 2008

In this paper the results and implications of an application of dynamic simulation modeling to the study of control of social unrest in a developing country are presented. The model demonstrates the use of a multiple-objective, multiple-group objective function designed to monitor the “pressure level” of social unrest in the modeled system. An outline of the model structure is presented and sample relationships are explained in detail to demonstrate the dynamic and feedback nature of the model.

The paper then presents some of the recommendations and their managerial and public policy implications derived from a policy analysis of the model. The analysis, for instance, reveals that a program designed to achieve the highest possible economic growth rate could adversely affect the society's stability in the long run. The study, in addition, finds that an extensive income redistribution program, designed to tax the rich more heavily and to substantially increase the minimum income of the poor, proves to be myopic while an extensive wealth redistribution program is shown to bring about a significant and sustained improvement in the system's stability.

These results raise serious questions on much of the attitudes that underlie economic development and income redistribution programs in countries like India, Brazil, the Philippines and, to some extent, the United States.
Grouping Observations in Digital Simulation
Authors: Fishman George S.
Published: November 2008

This paper presents a method for deriving a confidence interval for a population mean from the output of a simulation run. The method groups the observations on a run into batches and uses these batches as the basic data for analysis. The technique is not new. What is new is the procedure for determining how to group the observations into batches that satisfy certain assumptions necessary for the technique to work correctly. It is inexpensive and requires a moderate knowledge of statistics. The results of testing the method on a single server queuing model with Poisson distributed arrivals of exponentially distributed service times (M/M/1), indicate that the proposed technique performs as theory suggests for moderate activity levels. However, for higher activity levels performance is below theoretical expectation for small sample sizes n. As n increases, performance converges to expectation. Moreover, two calculations of the sample sizes needed to obtain results with moderate accuracy indicate that these sample sizes are in a range where the procedure is expected to perform with small error.
A Renewal Decision Problem
Authors: Derman C. , Lieberman G. J. , Ross S. M.
Published: November 2008

A system (e.g., a motor vehicle) must operate for t units of time. A certain component (e.g., a battery) is essential for its operation and must be replaced each time it fails. There are n types of replacement components. A type i replacement costs Ci and has a random life with distribution depending on i. There is no salvage value associated with the particular component in use when the system terminates. The problem is to assign the initial component and subsequent replacements from among the n types so as to minimize the total expected cost of providing an operative component for the t units of time. This paper treats this problem when the life distributions are exponential for each type and when t is fixed or has a truncated exponential distribution. Related problems are also considered.
An HMMS Type Interactive Model for Aggregate Planning
Authors: Welam Ulf Peter
Published: November 2008

For purposes of aggregate production smoothing, quadratic functions often produce good fits to data on some of the relevant incremental costs, such as inventory and overtime costs. However, when costs of hiring and laying off workers are described by smooth quadratic functions, the model solutions tend to involve very frequent minor workforce adjustments. Production managers are often unwilling to actually implement such decisions because changing workforce levels involves a great many intangible costs, many of which seem to defy meaningful analytic representation.

In this paper an interactive model is developed where, through parametric analysis of a set of workforce constraints, a manager can establish the appropriate trade-offs between his judgmental estimates of hiring and firing costs and other more tangible production costs.
The Economic Lot Scheduling Problem (ELSP): Review and Extensions
Authors: Elmaghraby Salah E.
Published: November 2008

The ELSP is a time-honored problem that “has been around” since 1915. It is the problem of accommodating cyclical production patterns when several products are made on a single facility. Recent contributions to its resolution resulted in either analytical approaches to a restricted problem, or heuristic approaches to the entire problem.

This paper reviews critically the various contributions to the problem, and extends the analysis in the following four directions: An improved analytical approach A test for feasibility, A systematic means for escape from infeasibility, and A procedure for the determination of a basic period for a given set of multipliers to achieve a feasible schedule.
Interactive Preference Optimization for University Administrators
Authors: Wehrung Donald A. , Hopkins David S. P. , Massy William F.
Published: November 2008

This paper describes a long-range planning procedure for administrators in private universities. The procedure operates by generating a sequence of alternative future configurations of the university that satisfy several financial constraints and by helping an administrator to assess his preferences on them. A mathematical programming algorithm is used to structure the interactive identification/search procedure. It incorporates the strategy of restriction and linear programming methods to generate new configurations, and it relies upon the interactively assessed preferences of the administrator to guide the search process rather than a standard objective function.
Stochastic Dynamic Location Analysis
Authors: Rosenthal Richard E. , White John A. , Young Donovan
Published: November 2008

This research introduces methods of stochastic decision processes into location analysis. The specific model concerns making dynamic relocation decisions for a new facility (server) that must interact with existing facilities (customers) whose relocations are stochastic processes. The model is an infinite-horizon Markov decision chain whose solution gives a server relocation policy that minimizes the expected discounted sum of costs. Costs are location-dependent and are incurred in two ways: when the server makes choice relocations and when the server interacts with customers. The model captures the essence of a variety of familiar dynamic location decision situations. Some methodological developments that allow solution of large problems are reported.
ARTS PLAN: A Model Based System for Use in Planning a Performing Arts Series
Authors: Weinberg Charles B. , Shachmut Kenneth M.
Published: November 2008

This paper is concerned with the application of marketing and management science to some of the problems involved in managing a series of performing arts presentations. Although some of the decisions are largely “artistic” and not subject to formal analytic procedures, many other decisions can be aided by model-based procedures. This paper describes some of the analytic procedures which are being used by the management of one performing arts series.

The starting point for ARTS PLAN is dummy variable regression analysis of historical data which leads to a prediction of attendance at future performances. This prediction can be overridden by the manager if he or she disagrees with the forecast The forecast is then embedded in an interactive model which can be used for planning a season or for deciding which events to promote in a season already planned.
Optimal Repairman Allocation—Asymptotic Results
Authors: Smith Donald R.
Published: November 2008

We consider a single repairman who maintains a coherent system of n components. Each component works for and is repaired in random periods of time with exponential distribution independent of the behavior of other components.

We try to find a policy for assignment of the repairman which maximizes the long run probability that the system functions. Although the general problem is quite complicated, highly reliable and highly unreliable systems can be solved easily by asymptotic techniques. These techniques express ergodic probabilities and expected passage times between states in power series of an asymptotic parameter when the policy employed is in a class of potentially optimal policies.

As an example, the highly reliable optimal actions are obtained for the k of n system which includes both series and parallel systems.
A Proxy Approach to Multi-Attribute Decision Making
Authors: Oppenheimer Kenneth R.
Published: November 2008

This paper combines two rival preference modeling techniques in a new approach to multi-attribute decision making. Currently existing multi-attribute procedures use either global or local preference modeling. In the global modeling technique, a single preference function is constructed in the large; its maximum is the optimal alternative. In the local procedure, sequential approximations of the preference function are constructed in the small. Each approximation generates a trial solution. Under suitable conditions, each trial solution is preferred to its predecessor, so the trial sequence eventually reaches the optimum. Each technique has advantages and disadvantages; this paper combines the desirable features of both techniques in a new improved method. This new method, called the proxy approach, uses the advantages of one technique to overcome the disadvantages of the other. This paper first develops the theoretical aspects of the proxy approach and then compares it to existing procedures. Finally, the proxy algorithm is applied to a curriculum planning problem and numerous insights are gained.
Note—Optimal Assignment of Customers in a Two Server Congestion System with No Waiting Room
Authors: Winston Wayne
Published: November 2008

We consider a two server congestion system which is heterogeneous in the sense that the reward received depends on the match between server and customer. In particular, if a type s customer (s = 1, 2, 3, …) is assigned to server i (i = 1, 2) a reward Rst is earned. Service time is assumed to depend only on customer type. Upon arrival a customer must be assigned to a server, (if one is available) with all customers who find both servers occupied being turned away. The policy that maximizes the long-run expected reward earned over an infinite horizon is shown to depend on a single critical number. Applications to the deployment of fire engines and assignment of patients to coronary care units are briefly discussed.
Methodology and Teleology
Authors: Tsatsos Constantine D.
Published: November 2008

An essay from His Excellency Constantine D. Tsatsos, the President of Hellenic Republic, and a former professor of social philosophy.
Sequential Investment Decisions with Bayesian Learning
Authors: Cyert R. M. , DeGroot M. H. , Holt C. A.
Published: November 2008

This paper analyzes investment decisions that can be made in a modular form. It is motivated by the empirical observation that managements are particularly worried about “downside” risk. With a sequential approach this risk is minimized. An investment in a module produces information as well as profits or losses. In our model a larger investment produces more information in addition to larger profits or losses. Costs for changing the level of the investment from period to period are introduced. The optimal sequential investment policy is studied for a two-period problem. Conditions are presented under which no investment, a partial investment, or a full investment in the first period is optimal.
The Use of Exponentially-Smoothed Transition Matrices to Improve Forecasting of Cash Flows from Accounts Receivable
Authors: Corcoran A. Wayne
Published: November 2008

A pioneering application of a Markov chain to forecast account receivable flows (Cyert, Davidson, and Thompson [Cyert, R. M., H. J. Davidson, G. L. Thompson. 1962. Estimation of the allowance for doubtful accounts by Markov chains. Management Sci. (August) 287–303.]) employed an unusual (the oldest balance) method of aging accounts and an assumption that the resulting transition matrix was stable. Forecasting steady state results was the primary focus of the application.

The present research uses a commonly found (partial balance) method of aging, an assumption of dynamic changes in the transition matrix, and does not focus on steady state results. A manufacturer's data were analyzed and exponential smoothing was introduced to update the average transition matrix thereby enabling a tracking of changing customer payment behavior. The actual and Markovian estimates of the company's cash collections checked favorably.

The paper also discusses how modifications such as the seasonal and trend adjustments introduced by Winters (Winters, P. R. 1960. Forecasting sales by exponentially weighted moving averages. Management Sci. (April) 324–342.) may be incorporated into the model. Extensions to other areas are offered.
Resource Management in the Petrochemical Industry
Authors: Stadtherr Mark A. , Rudd Dale F.
Published: November 2008

The petrochemical industry is a system of chemical processes that convert petroleum and natural gas into chemicals from which plastics, elastomers, and other synthetic materials can be made. As petroleum and natural gas supplies dwindle, this industry must look elsewhere for its raw materials. A linear-programming model of the industry is described, in which the objective is the efficient use of feedstocks. Four feedstock alternatives are evaluated with this model; the results of these studies are analyzed with respect to changes in the optimal process technology resulting from changes in feedstock availability. The model solutions also indicate the net change in feedstock requirement for the industry, per unit increase in demand for each product. This “feedstock efficiency index” indicates areas of incentive for developing new process technology; these areas are different for different feedstock alternatives. Analysis such as this should provide government planners with information for long-range planning and resource management.
An Empirical Evaluation of a Composite Heterogeneous Model of Brand Choice and Purchase Timing Behavior
Authors: Zufryden Fred S.
Published: November 2008

In a previous article, a new model of brand choice and purchase timing behavior has been discussed with respect to its theoretical foundations and mathematical development (Zufryden, F. S. 1977. A composite heterogeneous model of brand choice and purchase timing behavior, theoretical development. Management Sci. 24 (2, October).). This article first develops a new statistical methodology to estimate the model's parameters. Then, the model is empirically evaluated and compared to several previous stochastic models in an actual market situation. The empirical evidence provides strong support of the viability of the proposed model given its ability to describe and predict measures of market behavior and product performance that are of importance to marketing managers. Such measures of market behavior as the cumulative penetration, trial and repeat purchase patterns of a chosen brand all appear to coincide closely with actual data.
Administrative Experimentation: A Methodology for More Rigorous “Muddling Through”
Authors: Berlin Victor N.
Published: November 2008

Administrative experimentation is described as a more rigorous approach to the “muddling through” style of managerial decision making. It includes a class of heuristics for obtaining feedback on management decisions in what amounts to a continuous trial and error process. A manager on his own, a manager-consultant team, or a manager-researcher team can implement these heuristics in a variety of settings to serve a variety of purposes. A case study describing one application of this approach is presented.
Winning Strategies for Wagering on National Football League Games
Authors: Vergin Roger C. , Scriabin Michael
Published: November 2008

An attempt was made to develop profitable strategies for betting on National Football League games. The research was based on the hypothesis that biases exist in the setting of pointspeads and that these biases can be detected and used for profitable wagering. An analysis of 1969–1974 data suggests that biases of several types do exist and that they are of sufficient magnitude to allow profitable betting strategies despite the normal five percent betting fee.
Communications—A Comment on Geometric Mean Portfolios
Authors: Aucamp Donald C.
Published: November 2008

In a recent paper in this journal [Vander Weide, J. H., D. W. Peterson, S. F. Maier. 1977. A strategy which maximizes the geometric mean return on portfolio investments. Management Sci. 23(June) 1117–1123.], Vander Weide, Peterson, and Maìer (WPM) incorrectly point out several of the properties of the portfolio strategy which maximizes the geometric mean return (GMR), in which the GMR strategy is equivalent to maximizing the expected logarithm of the total return (including principal). Specifically, they state that GMR portfolios “maximize the probability of exceeding a given wealth level in a fixed amount of time”. This is clearly not true.
Estimation and Simulation
Authors: Fox Bennett
Published: November 2008

A number of papers on estimation procedures for simulation have been published in Management Science and related journals. I believe that many of these are on the wrong track. The purpose of this letter is to indicate what appear to be shortcomings in this literature and to suggest (imperfect) remedies.
Reply to Fox
Authors: Schruben Lee W.
Published: November 2008

A reply to Fox, Bennett. 1978. Estimation and simulation. Management Sci. 24(8, April) 860–861.
Note—On Echelon Holding Costs
Authors: Schwarz Leroy B. , Schrage Linus
Published: November 2008

The authors are indebted to Professor Andrew Szendrovits of McMaster University for pointing out that [Szendrovits, A. Z. A comment on “Optimal and system myopic policies for production/inventory assembly systems”. Management Science, this issue.] the definition of echelon holding cost in [Schwarz, L. B., L. Schrage. 1975. Optimal and system myopic policies for multi-echelon production/inventory systems. Management Sci. 21 (11, July) 1285–1294.] does not relate the echelon holding cost rate at a stage to the more familiar explicit holding cost rate at a stage. As he indicates, if the relation between these two holding costs is not made explicit, a user might mistakenly use incorrect echelon rates. We give here an explicit relationship between stage and echelon rates, and prove that they give equivalent expressions for holding cost.
Strategy Formulation—Introduction to a Grouping on Strategy Formulation
Authors: Mintzberg Henry , Shakun Melvin F.
Published: November 2008

Introduction to a special section devoted to strategy formulation.
Evaluating Methodologies: A Procedure and Application to Nuclear Power Plant Siting Methodologies
Authors: Ford Coleen K. , Keeney Ralph L. , Kirkwood Craig W.
Published: November 2008

A procedure is presented to evaluate the appropriateness of alternative methodologies for analyzing a specified problem. This procedure is illustrated by identifying desirable characteristics of nuclear power plant site selection methodologies and evaluating the adequacy of methodologies that have been used to select nuclear power plant sites. Objectives of such siting methodologies are specified and attributes developed to measure the degree of attainment of each objective. Several siting methodologies are rated on the various attributes and these ratings are analyzed to determine the adequacy of each methodology.
Network Models for Estimating Brand-Specific Effects in Multi-Attribute Marketing Models
Authors: Srinivasan V.
Published: November 2008

In multi-attribute models in marketing, a consumer's preference for a brand in a product class is expressed as a weighted sum of the brand's attribute values. However, marketing is abundant with examples where two brands may have approximately the same attribute values but enjoy very different market shares, e.g., Coke and Pepsi may have the same values for “sweetness,” “carbonation,” “calories” and “price” but have quite different market shares; two political candidates may take approximately the same position on relevant political issues but enjoy different levels of voter support. Defining the “brand-specific effect” to be the component of overall preference not explained by the attributes used in the multi-attribute model, the aim is to empirically estimate the brand-specific effects for the different brands. It turns out that the estimation problems have a close relationship to some minimum cost network flow models in Operations Research. An empirical application of the proposed approach in the context of consumers' choices of different primary health care physicians in a rural area reveals that the brand-specific component substantially improves the validity of the multi-attribute model.
Decentralization of the Capital Budgeting Authority
Authors: Sharon Ed M.
Published: November 2008

A conceptually new first-cut decision-aid for optimal delegation is introduced. It takes a subjective approach to capital budgeting, from the delegator's perspective. A model captures the tradeoffs between the cost of centralized (duplicated) review, and the opportunity cost and risk of having (otherwise) “unacceptable” projects.

Two explicit limits to optimal decentralization are identified to help headquarters (HQ) to select the kinds of proposals that should be: Approved and executed by divisions without HQ review. Rejected by divisions without HQ review. Submitted to HQ for a centralized review. A numerical example is presented to demonstrate the process.
An Algorithm for Computing Serial Correlations of Times in GI/G/1 Queues with Rational Arrival Processes
Authors: Woodside C. M. , Pagurek B.
Published: November 2008

An algorithm is given for computing the serial correlations of the waiting time, and of the time in system, for successive customers in a GI/G/1 queue. The method depends on representing the inter-arrival time distribution in terms of a process in class Kr (i.e., distributions with a rational Laplace transform). Thus Erlang, hyperexponential and weighted sum-of-Erlang arrivals are treated exactly, and approximate results can be found for other distributions. Computed correlation functions for some Erlang/Erlang systems are presented as examples.
Optimal Scheduling of Jobs on a Transmission Network
Authors: Jones G. A. , Wilson J. G.
Published: November 2008

A number of jobs have to be carried out on a gas transmission network every year, which restrict the transmission capacity of the network while they are in progress. There are certain pairs of jobs which must not be in progress at the same time. The network must meet a convex annual demand pattern. The problem of scheduling the jobs over the summer construction period to meet these conditions is formulated as a mixed-integer linear programming problem which is solved by a branch-and-bound algorithm. Results and benefits to the operators of the network are described.
The Interaction Effect of Preference and Availability on Brand Switching and Market Share
Authors: Jeuland Abel P.
Published: November 2008

Observed purchase behavior is the result of the combined effect of preference and availability. A multibrand choice model of a frequently purchased consumer good is developed. The model allows for the heterogeneity of the population with respect to brand preference. It also considers that all brands are not identically distributed and are thus not equally available to the potential buyers of the product class. The model uses the brand switching matrix in order to parcel out the effect of preference and availability. It is compared with the Hendry System which also uses the brand switching matrix for the purpose of measuring brand substitution or competition.

The Hendry System being a special case of the model presented in this paper, the likelihood ratio test is employed to test the more general model against Hendry. The estimation and testing procedure uses cooking oil data from 1,961 households who remained in the Secodip Consumer Panel, France, for the entire 1971–1972 period. The variable of availability is found to account for an additional significant portion of the variance of the switching flows.

The model should prove to be a useful tool to interpret correctly the popular quantitative summary of multibrand markets, namely the switching matrix. More efficient use of panel data by marketing decision makers should result.
Individual Differences and MIS Success: A Review of the Empirical Literature
Authors: Zmud Robert W.
Published: November 2008

Of the numerous factors believed to influence MIS success, the area of individual differences has by far been the most extensively studied. This paper synthesizes the findings of empirical investigations of the manner in which individual differences impact MIS success. Suggestions are made regarding those aspects which would benefit most from future research.
An Indirect Method for the Generalized k-Median Problem Applied to Lock-Box Location
Authors: Mavrides Lazaros P.
Published: November 2008

The problem of locating lock-boxes (post office boxes operated by banks for corporations) has been formulated as an uncapacitated plant location problem, for which there exist many efficient methods. However, corporations are often reluctant to establish as many lock-boxes as indicated by the optimal solution to this formulation. Hence, it is advisable to find the sequence of solutions containing 1, …, m lock-boxes, where m denotes the optimal number for the uncapacitated problem. This can be done by imposing an additional constraint specifying that the number of lock-boxes to be established be equal to k, and solving the resulting generalized k-median problem parametrically for k = m, m − 1, …, 1. It is very unlikely that an efficient direct algorithm exists for this problem, because it has been shown to be NP-complete. An indirect method is given in this paper, using an algorithm for the uncapacitated problem to solve the k-median problem. This method would be particularly valuable in situations where an uncapacitated algorithm is already in use; by adjusting the existing algorithm as indicated in the method, the time and cost required to implement a new algorithm can be avoided. The method has been successfully applied to some 1,000 real lock-box problems. It seems to be roughly as efficient as the underlying uncapacitated algorithm. The computational experience is discussed.
A Competitive Pricing Model
Authors: Mesak Hani I. , Clelland Richard C.
Published: November 2008

This paper is principally concerned with the development of a competitive pricing model aimed at predicting the impact of a vector of price increases on sales of a given brand of a low priced, frequently purchased product. The model has its base in a set of assumptions describing the purchasing behavior of the individual consumer. A method for testing the model against empirical data is described and illustrated. The competitive pricing model is found to perform somewhat better than a simple regression model in the application reported.
Binomial Searching for a Random Number of Multinomially Hidden Objects
Authors: Kimeldorf George , Smith Furman H.
Published: November 2008

Suppose N objects are hidden in m boxes where m is known and N is unknown; for example, suppose that we are hunting for defects (objects) in a system having several components (boxes). Let p = (p1, p2, …) denote the probability distribution of N where pn = P(N = n). The objects are independently placed in the boxes such that the probability that any particular object is placed in box j is πj. Each time box j is searched we pay cost cj > 0, and if x objects are in box j when it is about to be searched, the distribution of the number of objects removed is binomial with parameters x and αj. The numbers α1, …, αm and costs c1, …, cm are known and the initial state (p, π) is given where π = (π1, …, πm). Let T be the (random) total cost required to find all the objects. A major result is that to minimize the expectation E(T) when in state (p, π) where p is positive-Poisson with parameter λ > 0 (Pn = e−λ λn/(n!(1 − e−λ) for n = 1, 2, …), it is optimal to search a box with maximal value of [exp(λjπjλ) − 1]/cj. Results are obtained for problems such as minimizing E(1 − e−T) when is positive-Poisson or minimizing a utility function of the total number of searches.
The New Product Problem: An Approach for Investigating Product Failures
Authors: Dillon William R. , Calantone Roger , Worthing Parker
Published: November 2008

This paper discusses a recently developed variable selection procedure suitable when the available data have discrete components. In the context of the new product problem, a modification to the basic methodology is proposed with a view of identifying product profiles closely associated with success or early failure. A comparative analysis is also undertaken in which the new method is contrasted with the more widely used linear discriminant approach. The results indicate that the proposed methodology stands up well to the more common approach in terms of both practical and classification efficacy.
Evaluation of a Heuristic for Scheduling Independent Jobs on Parallel Identical Processors
Authors: Dogramaci Ali , Surkis Julius
Published: November 2008

In this paper we consider the problem of scheduling “n” independent fades on “m” parallel processors. Each job consists of a single operation with a specific processing time and due date. The processors are identical and the operation of the system is non-preemptive. The objective is to schedule the jobs in such a way that the total tardiness of the n jobs is as small as possible. For the case of a single processor with n jobs, there exists algorithms which provide optimal solutions. On the other hand currently available optimal scheduling algorithms for multiple processors can handle only small problems. Therefore, practitioners are forced to use heuristic methods to schedule their jobs on multiple processors. This raises questions of the following nature: “Are we scheduling our jobs reasonably well? Are there other schedules with which our total tardiness can be lowered substantially? How far off might the heuristic solution be, from the optimal solution?” The study reported in this paper focuses on a heuristic which can handle reasonably large problems, and yet can be simply and economically implemented. Experiments are conducted by establishing lower bounds for the optimal total tardiness of randomly generated scheduling problems. These lower bounds are then compared with the total tardiness obtained from the heuristic. It is found that the heuristic under study provides solutions which are quite close to the optimal ones. The experiments include 560 randomly generated problems that range from “loose” to “tight” in due dates, with varying numbers of jobs and processors. A nonparametric statistical analysis is presented to generalize the results.
A Metasystem Approach to Organizational Decision-Making
Authors: Kickert Walter J. M. , van Gigch John P.
Published: November 2008

The metasystem approach to organizational decision-making presented in this paper is set in a control systems framework. Decision-making is approached from a control systems viewpoint. The concept of metasystem is introduced as a framework for decision-making about decision-making, that is, the structuring of a decision-nuking process and the determination of organizational objectives. The metasystem framework is illustrated by means of examples drawn from a case study.
Using Linear Programming to Derive Planning Horizons for a Production Smoothing Problem
Authors: Miller Louis W.
Published: November 2008

In a previous paper Kunreuther and Morton examined a single product production planning problem in which demand in each of a finite number of periods is known with certainty, and there are linear costs for holding inventory and for adjusting production levels between periods. This paper reexamines the problem, taking advantage of it being a linear program. In particular, the dual problem has considerable structure, and the patterns of variables in dual feasible solutions have interesting geometric properties that afford a great deal of intuition. The requirement of dual feasibility is a more formal approach to the “marginal cost balancing” notion of Kunreuther and Morton and provides some extension and strengthening of the earlier results. A proof with simplified logical structure for the Kunreuther-Morton planning horizon is indicated. Then a different kind of planning horizon result is given. These, in contrast to the K-M planning horizons, occur when future demands increase, such as at the bottom of a seasonal cycle.
Optimal Construction of Experimental Clusters
Authors: Murphy Richard A. , Tatham Ronald L.
Published: November 2008

A critical issue in many marketing research studies is the creation of experimental clusters for the purpose of testing new products, advertising campaigns and other marketing decisions prior to widespread introduction in the marketplace. These experimental clusters are often called “test markets,” “panels,” and other such names, but regardless of the name, their central purpose is to allow controlled testing leading to inference to a population. Very often management wishes the experimental clusters to be “matched” on ratios reflecting change over time, comparative competitive position, etc. This paper examines Has problem of constructing such experimental clusters when cluster composition is measured by several ratios and the optimal construction would yield clusters with ratios as close as possible to those of the population. This paper demonstrates that it is possible to obtain optimal solutions through the solution of a mixed-integer linear programming problem which serves as a surrogate for the nonlinear formulation of the problem. An illustration of the successful application of this procedure is shown.
Exceptional Paper—ADVISOR 2: Modeling the Marketing Mix Decision for Industrial Products
Authors: Lilien Gary L.
Published: November 2008

This paper reports the results of the ADVISOR 2 study, aimed at providing an understanding of and guidance for marketing mix decisions for industrial products. The study involved 22 companies and 131 products. Although cross-sectional in nature, justification is presented for using the descriptive results as guidelines for marketing mix decisions. Models are presented for advertising expenditures, marketing expenditures, marketing budget allocations, year-to-year changes in advertising spending and for selection of distribution channels.

The level of marketing expenditures and the split of marketing into advertising and personal setting are shown to be affected by a few, general product and market characteristics of which product sales and the number of customers are key. It is shown that it is fruitful to study the advertising budget as advertising = (advertising/marketing) × marketing; i.e., a marketing budget is set and then a split of that budget into personal and impersonal communications is made. This two-stage view clarifies the role of different product and market characteristics in the models.

The change in advertising spending is related to changes in market share, changes in product plans and changes in the number of competitors modified by the number of customers, their concentration and the size of the advertising budget.

The decision to use a direct channel of distribution (primarily salesforce) is affected by the size of the firm, the size of an average order, the stage in the product's life cycle, the complexity of the product, the fraction of the product's sales made-to-order and the purchase frequency of the product.

A discussion of the use of the ADVISOR models both for marketing decision making and for marketing researchers and model builders is included.
Revising Earnings Per Share Forecasts: An Empirical Test
Authors: Brandon Charles H. , Jarrett Jeffrey E.
Published: November 2008

In this study, we postulate that forecasters desire to improve their performance by studying their past forecasting errors. To improve performance, forecasters may measure their past mistakes and revise their forecasts by forecast revision techniques. In an empirical test, forecasts of fifty firms' EPS were prepared by seven forecasting models. The initial forecasts were corrected by the Theil optimal linear correction technique and a Bayesian revision adjustment. Results indicate that the optimal linear correction technique is superior to not correcting for past forecast error.
Judgment Based Marketing Decision Models: An Experimental Investigation of the Decision Calculus Approach
Authors: Chakravarti Dipankar , Mitchell Andrew , Staelin Richard
Published: November 2008

Managerial judgment is frequently required to estimate many of the parameters of decision calculus models and the quality of these judgmental inputs may substantially affect model-based decisions. This paper suggests that if model builders are to rely upon managerial judgments in building models, research should be directed at understanding when managerial judgments will be valid and the types of biases that might be expected. A quasi-experimental design is used to explore managers' abilities to estimate the parameters of a decision-calculus model (ADBUDG) and to examine the value of this model in decision-making. The results are consistent with previous evidence of the existence of biases in human judgment. More specifically, they indicate that a manager's experience in a limited region of a nonlinear response function does not enable him to accurately predict decision outcomes or parameters in the unfamiliar regions and that model usage may, in certain situations, actually lead to poorer decisions.
Covering Relaxation for Positive 0-1 Polynomial Programs
Authors: Granot Daniel , Granot Frieda , Kallberg Jerry
Published: November 2008

Granot and Hammer (Granot, F., P. L. Hammer. 1971. On the use of boolean functions in 0-1 programming. Operations Research, Statistics and Economic Mimeograph Series No. 70, Technion (August 1970). (Published in Methods of Oper. Res. 12 154–184); Granot, F., P. L. Hammer. 1975. On the role of generalized covering problems. Cahiers du Centre D'Etudes de Recherche Operationelle 17 277–289.) have shown constructively that the set of 0-1 vectors x satisfying a polynomial constraint with non negative coefficients remains unchanged if the polynomial constraint is replaced by an appropriate finite collection of linear inequalities in x. When rewritten in the complementary vector x̄ = 1 − x, the linear inequalities are those of a linear covering problem. This reduction is used here to give a cutting-plane algorithm for solving the positive 0-1 polynomial program of finding a 0-1 vector that maximizes a nondecreasing linear function subject to the restrictions that several polynomials do not exceed given numbers. The algorithm consists of solving (by implicit enumeration) a nested sequence of linear covering problems, each of which is a relaxation of the original positive 0-1 polynomial program. Each covering problem is found by adding to its predecessor a small number (one suffices, but more speed convergence) of covering constraints that are violated by the optimal solution found for the preceding covering problem. Over 200 randomly generated problems with up to 50 variables and 50 constraints were solved using our covering relaxation algorithm. The CPU time was often less than one second and has exceeded one minute only for three problems. The number of iterations, i.e., the number of linear covering problems solved, ranged between 1 and 6, while the number of covers in the largest covering problem solved usually did not exceed the number of constraints in the original problem.
Note—On the Merits of an “Approximation” to the Busy Period of the GI/G/1 Queue
Authors: Ramaswami V. , Lucantoni David M.
Published: November 2008

An approximation suggested by D. Gross and C. M. Harris in their book Fundamentals of Queueing Theory for computing the busy period characteristics in the single server queue with renewal input and general i.i.d. service times commonly denoted by GI/G/1 is shown to be lacking in accuracy, and therefore quite undesirable for practical use. Incidentally, we also demonstrate how for a wide subclass of such queues, computations can be done exactly using practical algorithmic methods.
Authors' Rebuttal to Paper by Ramaswami and Lucantoni
Authors: Gross Donald , Harris Carl M.
Published: November 2008

Authors' Rebuttal to Paper by Ramaswami and Lucantoni (Ramaswami, V., David M. Lucantoni. 1979. Note—On the merits of an “approximation” to the busy period of the GI/G/1 queue. Management Sci. 25 285–289).
Erratum to “A Minimax Ordering Policy for the Infinite Stage Dynamic Inventory Problem”
Authors: Jagannathan R.
Published: November 2008

In my recent paper “A Minimax Ordering Policy for the Infinite Stage Dynamic Inventory Problem,” Management Sci., Vol. 24, No. 11 (July 1978), pp. 1138–1145, I noticed some errors in the proof of Theorem A.5 in the Appendix which made the proof somewhat incomplete. I have given below a correct version of the proof, mentioning only its main points.