bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Limitations to Empirical Extrapolation Studies: The Case of BMD Ratios
Authors: Brand Kevin P. , Catalano Paul J. , Hammitt James K. , Rhomberg Lorenz , Evans John S.
Published: March 2003

Extrapolation relationships are of keen interest to chemical risk assessment in which they play a prominent role in translating experimentally derived (usually in animals) toxicity estimates into estimates more relevant to human populations. A standard approach for characterizing each extrapolation relies on ratios of pre‐existing toxicity estimates. Applications of this “ratio approach” have overlooked several sources of error. This article examines the case of ratios of benchmark doses, trying to better understand their informativeness. The approach involves mathematically modeling the process by which the ratios are generated in practice. Both closed form and simulation‐based models of this “data‐generating process” (DGP) are developed, paying special attention to the influence of experimental design. The results show the potential for significant limits to informativeness, and revealing dependencies. Future applications of the ratio approach should take imprecision and bias into account. Bootstrap techniques are recommended for gauging imprecision, but more complicated techniques will be required for gauging bias (and capturing dependencies). Strategies for mitigating the errors are suggested.
An Empirical Bayes Approach to Estimating the Relation of Mortality to Exposure to Particulate Matter
Authors: Post Ellen , Hoaglin David , Deck Leland , Larntz Kinley
Published: March 2003

As part of its assessment of the health risks associated with exposure to particulate matter (PM), the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency analyzed the risks associated with current levels, and the risk reductions that might be achieved by attainment of alternative PM standards, in two locations in the United States, Philadelphia, and Los Angeles. The concentration – response function describing the relation between a health endpoint and ambient PM concentrations is an important component, and a source of substantial uncertainty, in such risk analyses. In the absence of location‐specific estimates, the concentration –r esponse functions necessary for risk assessments in Philadelphia and Los Angeles must be inferred from the available information in other locations. Although the functional form of the concentration – response relations is assumed to be the same everywhere, the value of the PM coefficient in that function may vary from one location to another. Under this model, a distribution describes the probability that the PM coefficient in a randomly selected location will lie in any range of interest. An empirical Bayes estimation technique was used to improve the estimation of location‐specific concentration – response functions relating mortality to short‐term exposure to particles of aerodynamic diameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm (PM‐2.5), for which functions have previously been estimated in several locations. The empirical Bayes‐adjusted parameter values and their SEs were used to derive an estimate of the distribution of PM‐2.5 coefficients for mortality associated with short‐term exposures. From this distribution, distributions of relative risks corresponding to different specified changes in PM‐2.5 concentrations could be derived.
Modeling Virus Inactivation on Salad Crops Using Microbial Count Data
Authors: Petterson Susan R. , Teunis Peter F. M. , Ashbolt Nicholas J.
Published: March 2003

Microbial counts of the persistentBacteroides fragilis bacteriophage B40‐8 from a virus decay experiment conducted under glasshouse conditions were used to model the decay of viruses on wastewater‐irrigated lettuce and carrot crops. The modeling approach applied gave specific consideration to the discrete nature of microbial count data. The experimental counts were best fit by a negative binomial distribution indicating highly dispersed distribution of viruses on lettuce and carrot crops following irrigation with wastewater. In addition, there was evidence for biphasic inactivation of viruses, signifying the presence of a persistent subpopulation of viruses that decayed slowly, resulting in virus accumulation on the crop surface over subsequent irrigations. Maximum likelihood estimates of initial and persistent subpopulation inactivation rates were 2.48 day−1 and 0.51 day−1 for lettuces and 0.84 day−1 and 0.046 day−1 for carrots. Maximum likelihood estimates of the persistent virus subpopulation size were 0.12% and 2% for lettuce and carrots, respectively.
Human and Organizational Factors in Reliability Assessment and Management of Offshore Structures
Authors: Bea Robert G.
Published: March 2003

Today, there is a worldwide infrastructure of offshore structure systems that include fixed, floating, and mobile platforms, pipelines, and ships. Background on current and future trends in development of comprehensive programs to help improve the quality and reliability of offshore structure systems are discussed. A combination of proactive, reactive, and interactive risk assessment and management approaches have been developed and applied. Two risk assessment and management instruments are detailed in this article: a qualitative Quality Management Assessment System (QMAS), and a quantitative System Risk Analysis System (SYRAS). Application of QMAS to produce human and organizational performance shaping factors that are used as input to SYRAS is discussed.
Diversifying Local Government Revenue in Bosnia‐Herzegovina Through an Area‐Based Property Tax
Authors: Zorn C. Kurt , Tesche Jean , Cornia Gary
Published: March 2003

After a bitter and devastating war, Bosnia and Herzegovina is making slow but steady progress rebuilding its economy and government structure. As normalcy returns, the demand for government services invariably will continue to increase, especially at the sub‐entity levels of government. Unfortunately, the current fiscal structure severely restricts the resources available to local governments. This article suggests that Bosnia and Herzegovina consider adopting a property tax as a means to provide much‐ needed revenue. After describing the current governmental and fiscal system that has evolved since the signing of the Dayton Accords, the authors discuss why an area‐based property tax, rather than a more traditional property tax based on capital value or market prices, makes sense for this country in transition.
Surplus Expenditures: A Case Study of Colorado
Authors: Poulson Barry W.
Published: March 2003

In this study the concept of surplus expenditures is introduced, and a theory of surplus expenditures is explored. The study examines the disposition of surplus revenues that emerged from the imposition of a binding tax and spending limit in Colorado. The study concludes that the accumulation of surplus revenue requires a major overhaul of budgetary reporting and decision making to reflect the impact of binding tax and spending limits on the budgetary process. The reporting recommendations are designed to make the budget more transparent and provide both taxpayers and legislators the information they need to make more rational decisions. The policy recommendations explore options for a more efficient and equitable disposition of surplus revenue.
Using Fuzzy Rule–Based Systems to Evaluate Overall Financial Performance of Governments: An Enhancement to the Bond Rating Process
Authors: Ammar Salwa , Duncombe William , Hou Yilin , Jump Bernard , Wright Ronald
Published: March 2003

Credit ratings remain a key feature of municipal debt management. The primary objective of this article is to develop a new methodology for evaluating the financial performance and creditworthiness of governments and to illustrate this approach for a sample of large American cities. Specifically, we develop a fuzzy rule–based system (FRBS) that uses economic, debt, and other financial information as well as a measure of financial management to produce rankings of city financial performance. The FRBS credit ratings are highly correlated with actual Moody’s ratings for these cities. FRBS have the potential of enhancing the rating process by standardizing the information used and encouraging consistent rules about what combinations of inputs result in good, fair, or poor performance.
Overcoming Relativism? Levinas's Return to Platonism
Authors: Blum Peter C.
Published: March 2003

Emmanuel Levinas's concept of “the face of the Other” involves an ethical mandate that is presumably transcultural or, in his terms, “precultural.” His essay “Meaning and Sense” provides his most explicit defense of the idea that the face has a meaning that is not culturally relative, though it is always encountered within some particular culture. Levinas identifies his position there as a “return to Platonism.” Through a careful reading of that essay, exploring Levinas's use of religious terminology and the (some‐times implicit) relationships of the essay to the work of other phenomenologists and of Saussure, the author seeks to clarify (1) what Levinas retains and what he rejects in returning to Platonism “in a new way,” (2) the sense in which this return constitutes an “overcoming” of relativism, and (3) the nature of the phenomenological warrant that he offers for his position.
Unjust Lies, Just Wars? A Christian Pacifist Conversation with Augustine
Authors: Epp Weaver Alain
Published: March 2003

Pacifism is routinely criticized as sectarian, incoherent, and preoccupied with moral purity at the expense of responsibility. The author contends that the pacifism of John Howard Yoder is vulnerable to none of these charges and defends this claim by establishing parallels between Yoder's analysis of killing and Augustine's analysis of lying. Although, within the terms of his own argument, Augustine's rejection of all lying as unjust is consistent with his condoning of some killing as just, the author shows that given a different conception of the defining characteristic of God (noncoercive love instead of truth), Augustine's theological argument against lying would become an argument against violence. The author therefore suggests that Yoder's rejection of killing is no more sectarian, incoherent, or irresponsible that Augustine's rejection of lying.
A Vindication of Theology: A Response to Alain Epp Weaver
Authors: Davis G. Scott
Published: March 2003

Alain Epp Weaver's analysis of the theological foundations of Augustine's proscription of all lies in all circumstances does more than improve our understanding of Augustine. In drawing a plausible and illuminating parallel between the theological logic of Augustine and the theological logic of John Howard Yoder, Weaver not only succeeds in defining the credibility of Christian pacifism but also provides support for interpreting Yoder as a biblical realist. Moreover, the divergence between Weaver and Christopher Kirwan in their critical assessments of the cogency of Augustine'streatment of lying serves to throw into relief the differences between secular philosophical ethics and theological ethics, incidentally suggesting why it is often difficult for twentieth‐century thinkers to understand and evaluate premodern texts.
Virtue Ethics, The Analects, and the Problem of Commensurability
Authors: Slingerland Edward
Published: March 2003

In support of the thesis that virtue ethics allows for a more comprehensive and consistent interpretation of the Analects than other possible models, the author uses a structural outline of a virtue ethic (derived from Alasdair MacIntyre's account of the Aristotlelian tradition) to organize a discussion of the text. The resulting interpretation focuses attention on the religious aspects of Confucianism and accounts for aspects of the text that are otherwise difficult to explain. In addition, the author argues that the structural similarities between the Aristotelian and Confucian conceptions of self‐cultivation indicate a dimension of commensurability between the two traditions, despite very real variations in specific content. Finally, the author suggests how crosscultural commensurability, in general, can be understood on a theoretical level.
Cornell College: Program in Science and Religion
Authors: Carroll William E.
Published: March 2003

Cornell College in Mount Vernon, Iowa, has established a new interdisciplinary program in science and religion. One of the features of this program is an undergraduate major in science and religion that requires substantial course work in at least one of the natural sciences as well as course work in philosophy, religion, and history. As a result of a grant from the John Templeton Foundation, Cornell College will offer a special course, God and Physics: From Aquinas to Quantum Mechanics (April 1998), and will sponsor an international symposium on creation and contemporary cosmology (April 1999). Opportunities exist for interested scholars to come to Cornell as Templeton Visiting Fellows in order to participate in these activities.
A Theological Challenge: Coordinating Biological, Social, and Religious Visions of Humanity
Authors: Wildman Wesley J.
Published: March 2003

This paper attempts two tasks. First, it sketches how the natural sciences (including especially the biological sciences), the social sciences, and the scientific study of religion can be understood to furnish complementary, consonant perspectives on human beings and human groups. This suggests that it is possible to speak of a modern secular interpretation of humanity (MSIH) to which these perspectives contribute (though not without tensions). MSIH is not a comprehensive interpretation of human beings, if only because it adopts a posture of neutrality with regard to the reality of religious objects and the truth of theological claims about them. MSIH is certainly an impressively forceful interpretation, however, and it needs to be reckoned with by any perspective on human life that seeks to insert its truth claims into the arena of public debate. Second, the paper considers two challenges that MSIH poses to specifically theological interpretations of human beings. On the one hand, in spite of its posture of religious neutrality, MSIH is a key element in a class of wider, seemingly antireligious interpretations of humanity, including especially projectionist and illusionist critiques of religion. It is consonance with MSIH that makes these critiques such formidable competitors for traditional theological interpretations of human beings. On the other hand, and taking the religiously neutral posture of MSIH at face value, theological accounts of humanity that seek to coordinate the insights of MSIH with positive religious visions of human life must find ways to overcome or manage such dissonance as arises. The goal of synthesis is defended as important, and strategies for managing these challenges, especially in light of the pluralism of extant philosophical and theological interpretations of human beings, are advocated.
Religion and Science Conversation: A Case Illustration
Authors: Ashbrook James B. , Albright Carol Rausch
Published: March 2003

The March 1999 issue of Zygon provides a case illustration of a religion‐and‐science conversation. The three responses to the issues raised by The Humanizing Brain represent a spectrum ranging from skepticism to affirmation. Each is examined in turn. Next, we present a constructive set of guidelines beginning with the recognition that interdisciplinary talk requires stretching disciplinary language into metaphor and analogy. We conclude with a methodology emphasizing empiricism and wholism.
Reflections on the Evolution of Morality
Authors: Peters Karl E.
Published: March 2003

In my summary lecture at the IRAS 1997 Star Island Conference on the Evolution of Morality, I reflected on the thinking of other speakers in light of my own personal experience. My remarks were organized around five questions: (1) Do worldviews matter, and how do we decide if some matter more than others? (2) What does it mean to be moral? (3) What is the relation between biology and culture? (4) How does a scientific, sociobiological description of how we have become moral fit with our own personal quest for meaning and moral guidance toward richer and fuller lives? (5) How do we test evolutionary views of the biological conditions of morality scientifically?
Darwin, Social Theory, and the Sociology of Scientific Knowledge
Authors: Murphy Nancey
Published: March 2003

This essay considers ways in which Darwin's account of natural processes was influenced by economic, ethical, and natural‐theological theories in his own day. It argues that the Anabaptist concept of “the gospel of all creatures” calls into question alliances between evolutionary theory and social policy that are based on the dominance of conflictual images such as “the survival of the fittest” and questions the negative images of both nature and God that Darwinism has been taken to sponsor. The essay also considers developments in biology that have called into question dualist accounts of human nature as body and soul, thus reminding us that we are fully a part of the natural world and thus contributing, in turn, to a better theological grasp of God's relation to nature.
The Technological Factor: Redemption, Nature, and the Image of God
Authors: Scott Peter
Published: March 2003

This paper begins from the premise that being in the image of God refers humanity neither to nature nor to its technology but to God. Two positions are thereby rejected: (1) that nature should be treated as a source of salvation (Heidegger), and (2) that redemptive significance may be ascribed to technology (Cole‐Turner, Hefner). Instead, theological judgments concerning technologyrequire the reconstruction of theological anthropology. To this end, the image of God (imago dei) is reconceived in terms of sociality, temporality, and spatiality to show how humanity may be understood as imaging God in a technological society.
Can Western Monotheism Avoid Substance Dualism?
Authors: Bielfeldt Dennis
Published: March 2003

The problem of divine agency and action is analogous to the problem of human agency and action: How is such agency possible in the absence of a dualistic causal interaction between disparate orders of being? This paper explores nondualistic accounts of divine agency that assert the following: (1) physical monism, (2) antireductionism, (3) physical realization, and (4) divine causal realism. I conclude that a robustly causal deity is incompatible with nonddualism's affirmation of physical monism. Specifically, I argue the incoherence of nondualistic strategies that advocate divine information transfer without energy transfer or the divine downward causation of physical events. Furthermore, I claim that the principle of explanatory exclusion makes any nondualistic, noninterventionist account of divine agency highly dubious. Finally, I suggest that Judaism, Christianity, and Islam can avoid a causally inert deity only if they are willing to deny the current presumption of the causal closure of the physical.
Tales from the Crypt: On the Role of Death in Life
Authors: Solomon Sheldon , Greenberg Jeff , Pyszczynski Tom
Published: March 2003

An existential psychodynamic theory is presented based on Ernest Becker's claim that self‐esteem and cultural worldviews function to ameliorate the anxiety associated with the uniquely human awareness of vulnerability and mortality. Psychological equanimity is hypothesized to require (1) a shared set of beliefs about reality that imbues the universe with stability, meaning, and permanence; (2) standards by which individuals can judge themselves to be of value; and (3) promises of safety and the transcendence of death to those who meet the standards of value. An empirical research program in support of this theory is then described, and the personal and interpersonal implications of these ideas are briefly considered.
The Image of God of Neurotheology: Reflections of Culturally Based Religious Commitments or Evolutionarily Based Neuroscientific Theories?
Authors: Rottschaefer William A.
Published: March 2003

In Augustinian fashion, James B. Ashbrook and Carol Rausch Albright develop a neurotheology that finds evolutionarily based correlations between the functions of the human mind‐brain and the roles God plays in human life. I argue that their assumptions of anthropomorphism, that the human mind‐brain must conceptualize its environment in human terms, and realism, that anthropomorphism is correct, are evolutionarily unlikely. I conclude that the image of God (imago dei) the authors find reflected in the human mind‐brain appears to derive from their Christian religious commitments rather than from evolutionary theory.
“Scientific” Theology/“Theological” Science: Pannenberg and the Dialogue Between Theology and Science
Authors: Grenz Stanley J.
Published: March 2003

Throughout his distinguished career, Wolfhart Pannenberg has sought to show that the Christian understanding of God is crucial to the pursuit of knowledge. As the essays in Beginning with the End indicate, Pannenberg has attempted to construct a bridge between theology and science via the idea of contingency and the concept of field. His interest in dialogue, however, arises out of a deeper theological foundation, which views theology as a public discipline and sees the human quest for truth as the quest for God. Although susceptible to criticisms that all objectivist approaches at‐tract, this focus on “reasonable faith” provides a helpful point of departure for dialogue.
The Epic of Evolution as a Framework for Human Orientation in Life
Authors: Kaufman George
Published: March 2003

This article sketches what is required of a world picture (religious or nonreligious) that is intended to provide orientation in the world for ongoing human life today. How do we move from conceptions and theories prominent in the modern sciences—such as cosmic and biological evolution—to an overall picture or cosmology which can orient us for the effective address of today's deepest human problems? A biohistoricalconception of the human is proposed in answer to this question.
Putting Social Theory Right?
Authors: Abell Peter
Published: March 2003

The paper considers some of the implications of Coleman Diagrams in the context of the study of social interaction at the microlevel. Such studies cannot be adequately modeled without improved theoretical rigor. The Theory of Comparative Narratives is advanced as one possible analytical framework of the modeling of interactions.
Civil Society and the Sexual Politics of Difference
Authors: Meeks Chet
Published: March 2003

This paper discusses the sexual politics of anti-normalization within the context of the sociological discussions of civil society and the public sphere. The sexual politics of anti-normalization is less centered around “identity” as a means of securing group solidarity and representing sexual communities in civil society. A politics of anti-normalization comprehends identity as a means of normalizing and regulating sexual desire and difference. Anti-normalization entails the politicization of ethical-moral issues concerning sex and desire and the production of sexual differences beyond the usual opposition of heterosexuality to homosexuality. I discuss the ways that the theoretical discourses on civil society reduce conceptions of difference to identity and develop a framework for analyzing the sexual politics of difference “beyond identity” in the public sphere.
Multicriteria DSS for River Water–Quality Planning
Authors: Lotov A. V. , Bushenkov V. A. , Chernykh O. L.
Published: March 2003

A decision support system (DSS) devoted to water–quality planning is described. The DSS is based on a graphic multiple–criteria technique called generalized reachable sets (GRS) method, which provides experts and decision makers with objective tradeoff curves among cost and pollution criteria. The information improves their understanding of the problem and helps to identify wastewater treatment strategies that provide reasonable balance between cost and pollution. These strategies are starting points for further negotiation between governmental agencies, private and state–owned enterprises, and regional and local authorities involved in wastewater treatment. The DSS is implemented on personal computers.
Forecasting Freeway Link Travel Times with a Multilayer Feedforward Neural Network
Authors: Park Dongjoo , Rilett Laurence R.
Published: March 2003

One of the major requirements of advanced traveler information systems (ATISs) is a mechanism to estimate link travel times. This article examines the use of an artificial neural network (ANN) for predicting freeway link travel times for one through five time periods into the future. Actual freeway link travel times from Houston, Texas, that were collected as part of the automatic vehicle identification (AVI) system were used as a test bed. It was found that when predicting one or two time periods into the future, the ANN model that only considered previous travel times from the target link gave the best results. However, when predicting three to five time periods into the future, the ANN model that employed travel times from upstream and downstream links in addition to the target link gave superior results. The ANN model also gave the best overall results compared with existing link travel time forecasting techniques.
Nonlinear Analysis of Structural Frame Systems by the State‐Space Approach
Authors: Simeonov Vassil K. , Sivaselvan Mettupalayam V. , Reinhorn Andrei M.
Published: March 2003

This article presents the formulation and solution of the equations of motion for distributed parameter nonlinear structural systems in state space. The essence of the state‐space approach (SSA) is to formulate the behavior of nonlinear structural elements by differential equations involving a set of variables that describe the state of each element and to solve them in time simultaneously with the global equations of motion. The global second‐order differential equations of dynamic equilibrium are reduced to first‐order systems by using the generalized displacements and velocities of nodal degrees of freedom as global state variables. In this framework, the existence of a global stiffness matrix and its update in nonlinear behavior, a cornerstone of the conventional analysis procedures, become unnecessary as means of representing the nodal restoring forces. The proposed formulation overcomes the limitations on the use of state‐space models for both static and dynamic systems with quasi‐static degrees of freedom. The differential algebraic equations (DAE) of the system are integrated by special methods that have become available in recent years. The nonlinear behavior of structural elements is formulated using a flexibility‐based beam macro element with spread plasticity developed in the framework of state‐space solutions. The macro‐element formulation is based on force‐interpolation functions and an intrinsic time constitutive macro model. The integrated system including multiple elements is assembled, and a numerical example is used to illustrate the response of a simple structure subjected to quasi‐static and dynamic‐type excitations. The results offer convincing evidence of the potential of performing nonlinear frame analyses using the state‐space approach as an alternative to conventional methods.
Performance Analysis of Drive‐Line Steering Methods in Excavator‐Mounted Sheet‐Piling Systems
Authors: Keskinen Erno , Launis Sirpa , Cotsaftis Michel , Raunisto Yrjö
Published: March 2003

Sheet‐piling processes pose the problem of guiding the pile to follow a fixed trajectory in order to drive it correctly into the ground. Since the complete system consists of the supporting excavator boom with hydraulic actuators, the gripper, and the vibratory unit, the large number of system variables implies the use of servo control to allow a human operator to handle the operation. An exact inverse kinematic transformation from Cartesian workspace to boom joint space variables allows the pile penetration to be guided, keeping the valve input of the main boom actuator as the free parameter, while the remaining actuators are governed automatically by the control computer. The penetration record of the pile differs based on whether a constant valve input is used in semiautomatic steering mode or, alternatively, the desired penetration speed is governing the valve input in a feedback loop in full‐automatic steering mode. A numerical model representing an actual industrial system has been developed. Variable results from computer simulations have led the manufacturer to realize the steering system. It has been verified in real piling tests that the steering system may be tuned to be stable and fast enough for practical working conditions. In particular, the performance of trajectory control in terms of tracking error is much better than in the conventional manual steering method, as expected.
Lattice‐Dome Design Using a Knowledge‐Based System Approach
Authors: Lin Suchada P. , Albermani Faris
Published: March 2003

In the design of lattice domes, design engineers need expertise in areas such as configuration processing, nonlinear analysis, and optimization. These are extensive numerical, iterative, and time‐consuming processes that are prone to error without an integrated design tool. This article presents the application of a knowledge‐based system in solving lattice‐dome design problems. An operational prototype knowledge‐based system, LADOME, has been developed by employing the combined knowledge representation approach, which uses rules, procedural methods, and an object‐oriented blackboard concept. The system's objective is to assist engineers in lattice‐dome design by integrating all design tasks into a single computer‐aided environment with implementation of the knowledge‐based system approach. For system verification, results from design examples are presented.
Parallel Computation of a Weather Model in a Cluster Environment
Authors: Chang Hsi‐Ya , Huang Kuo‐Chan , Shen Cherng‐Yeu , Tcheng Shou‐Cheng , Chou Chaur‐Yi
Published: March 2003

Recently, the superior and continuously improving cost‐performance ratio of commodity hardware and software has made PC clustering a popular alternative for high‐performance computing in both academic institutes and industrial organizations. The purpose of this work is to use PC clusters to solve a weather‐prediction model in parallel mode, and the result also will be compared with those obtained on some conventional parallel platforms such as the Fujitsu VPP300, IBM SP2 (160 and 120 MHz), and HP SPP2200. Techniques of domain decomposition and data communication are used to exploit parallelism of the model. Interprocessor data communication is done by the Message Passing Interface communication library routines. Two versions of the parallel codes, one with longitude decomposition and the other with latitude decomposition, are tested and compared. Speedups of the parallel weather model on these machines with various numbers of processors show that substantial reductions in computation time can be achieved as compared with sequential runs.
A Metropolitan Transaction‐Based Commercial Price Index: A Time‐Varying Parameter Approach
Authors: Munneke Henry J. , Slade Barrett A.
Published: March 2003

This study examines the usefulness of time‐varying parameter techniques for constructing reliable transaction‐based commercial price indices for metropolitan areas. Time‐varying parameter techniques allow the implicit prices of differing quality characteristics to vary intertemporally, overcoming the potential bias imposed by holding implicit prices fixed and simply interpreting time dummy variables as in a conventional hedonic approach. This paper empirically investigates three time‐varying parameter methods (Chained, Laspeyres, and Paasche) and considers the potential for sample selection bias. Precision measures are constructed to examine the reliability of the respective indices.
Prepayment Risk in Adjustable Rate Mortgages Subject to Initial Year Discounts: Some New Evidence
Authors: Ambrose Brent W. , LaCour‐Little Michael
Published: March 2003

This paper uses microlevel data to examine recent prepayment performance of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) employing the competing risk methodology developed by Deng, Quigley and Van Order (2000). We find support for the teaser rate and adjustment date effects implied by the theoretical model of Kau et al. (1993). In addition, we find that teased ARMs bear prepayment risk related to their discount, contrary to results reported by VanderHoff (1996) and Green and Shilling (1997). Finally, and contrary to the usual finding for fixed‐rate mortgages, we find that loan age has a negative effect on prepayment risk for ARMs, consistent with the phenomenon that borrowers with high mobility and/or propensity to refinance exit the pool early.
Residential Investment and Interest Rates: An Empirical Test of Land Development as a Real Option
Authors: Capozza Dennis R. , Li Yuming
Published: March 2003

In real options models, investment can increase under some conditions when interest rates rise. This research tests for these positive interest rate responses in the context of the Capozza–Li model of land development. In the model variable capital intensity is a sufficient condition for positive responses to interest rates that can occur when growth rates are high or uncertainty is high. The empirical analysis uses a panel data set on residential investment in the 1980s and finds that 25–50% of the sample lies in the positive response region.
Do Tax‐Deferred Exchanges Impact Purchase Price? Evidence from the Phoenix Apartment Market
Authors: Holmes Andrew , Slade Barrett A.
Published: March 2003

Many authors have commented on the compliance risk associated with tax‐deferred exchanges. However, no published studies explicitly address whether the risks associated with the exchange process impact the price at which exchanged assets trade. Using a unique data set that documents transactions for nondirect exchanges, this study examines the price impact of tax‐deferred exchanges on apartment transactions in the Phoenix, Arizona, market. Consistent with the price pressure hypothesis originally developed by Scholes (1972) and Kraus and Stoll (1972) and the tax capitalization hypothesis proposed by Oates (1969), the data show that exchange participants pay an economically significant premium to acquire replacement assets. A conventional hedonic price index is generated to investigate the rational bounds of the exchange premium.
Regressive Interest Rate Expectations and Mortgage Instrument Choice in the United Kingdom Housing Market
Authors: Leece David
Published: March 2003

The paper considers the choice of mortgage instrument when the rate of interest is fixed for a short duration, with reversion to a variable (bullet) rate mortgage contract. The research is the first direct test for regressive interest rate expectations using United Kingdom data while testing for wealth and portfolio effects. The econometric modeling uses a variety of nonparametric and parametric techniques to control for classification error in the dependent variable. There is evidence that households adopt regressive interest rate expectations. The lack of statistical significance of wealth and portfolio effects confirms the short run cash flow perspective of United Kingdom mortgage choices.
The Value of Liquidity
Authors: Benveniste Lawrence , Capozza Dennis R. , Seguin Paul J.
Published: March 2003

In this study, we examine the relationship between the liquidity of equity and its market value. We find that creating liquid equity claims on relatively illiquid property assets increases value by 12–22%. However, the fixed costs associated with creating these claims offset these liquidity gains for pools of assets below $100 million. We also estimate that the liquidity of individual properties adds 16% to their value relative to a notional nontradable property asset. Managers can enhance the liquidity of equity and, therefore, the benefits of securitization by increasing size, focus, and institutional ownership.
Optimal Valuation of Noisy Real Assets
Authors: Childs Paul D. , Ott Steven H. , Riddiough Timothy J.
Published: March 2003

We study the optimal valuation of real assets when true asset values are unobservable. In our model, the observed value cointegrates with the unobserved true asset value to cause serial correlation in the time series of observed values. Autocorrelation as well as total variance in the observed value are used to calculate an efficient unbiased estimate of the true asset value (the time–filtered value). The optimal value estimate is shown to have three time–weighted terms: a deterministic forward value, a comparison of observed values with previously determined time–filtered values, and a convexity correction for incomplete information. The residual variance measures the precision of the value estimate, which can increase or decrease monotonically over time as well as display a linear or nonlinear time trend. We also show how to revise time–filtered estimates based on the arrival of new information. Our results relate to work on illiquid asset markets, including appraisal smoothing, tests of market efficiency, and the valuation of options on real assets.
Feasible Net Income Distributions under Income Tax Evasion: An Equilibrium Analysis
Authors: Landsberger Michael , Monderer Dov , Talmor Irit
Published: March 2003

We investigate how redistribution of income is affected by the fact that income is privately observed and agents may not be truthful in their reports to tax authorities. In response, the government establishes an audit mechanism with penalties. Adhering to a signaling equilibrium concept, we prove that agents resort to mixed strategies, which makes it difficult for tax authorities to identify the true types. The audit strategy has a cutoff property: All income declarations below the pivotal income are audited with a constant probability; other declarations are not audited. In spite of not necessarily being truthful, agents whose true income is below or equal to the pivotal income pay their liability and, consequently, the government is implementing the designated tax schedule for those agents. In equilibrium, penalties and tax corrections equal the audit cost. Consequently, the audit system does not contribute directly to revenues, and its role is restricted to supporting the equilibrium.
Solidarity and Probabilistic Target Rules
Authors: Ehlers Lars , Klaus Bettina
Published: March 2003

We consider a probabilistic approach to collective choice problems where a group of agents with single‐peaked preferences have to decide on the level or location of a public good. We show that every probabilistic rule that satisfies Pareto efficiency and “solidarity” (population‐monotonicity or replacement‐domination) must equal a so‐called target rule.
Efficiency in an Economy with Fixed Costs
Authors: Dall'olio Andrea , Vohra Rajiv
Published: March 2003

It is by now well known that in an economy with increasing returns, first‐best efficiency may be impossible to attain through an equilibrium concept based on market prices, even if firms are regulated to follow marginal cost pricing. We examine the efficiency issue in a special but important class of economies in which the only source of nonconvexities is the presence of fixed costs. Even in this context, it is possible that none of the equilibria based on marginal cost pricing are efficient (unless additional, strong assumptions are made). We argue that available results on the existence of an efficient two‐part tariff equilibrium rely on very strong assumptions, and we provide a positive result using a weak surplus condition. Our approach can also be used to establish the existence of an efficient marginal cost pricing equilibrium with endogenously chosen lump‐sum taxes if the initial endowment is efficient in the economy without the production technology.
The Second‐Best Level of a Public Good: An Approach Based on the Marginal Excess Burden
Authors: Gronberg Timothy , Liu Liqun
Published: March 2003

This paper studies the second‐best level of public goods, a topic first addressed formally by Atkinson and Stern (1974, Review of Economic Studies, 41, 119–128). It goes beyond the existing literature on this “level problem” by identifying the marginal excess burden as a key underlying force behind level comparisons. The propositions in this paper include previous results as special cases. The paper also relates the marginal excess burden condition to consumer behavior and to the complementarity or substitutability between the public good and the taxed private good.
Collusion Under Asymmetric Information: The Role of the Correlation
Authors: Pouyet Jérôme
Published: March 2003

We consider the regulation of a duopoly under incomplete information. When firms act noncooperatively, the regulator uses yardstick mechanisms to bridge his informational gap at no cost. However, this provides the firms with an incentive to collude.

We interpret the correlation as a measure of the congruence/divergence between individual and coalitional incentives. Under positive correlation, these incentives are aligned: the threat of collusion forces the regulator to distort the allocation. Under negative correlation, these incentives are opposed: the regulator can, sometimes, exploit this conflict of interest inside the coalition to eradicate the stakes of collusion at no cost.
Budget Cuts, Social Assistance and Voluntary Unemployment
Authors: Stähler Frank
Published: March 2003

The theory of optimal taxation has shown that bunching can be optimal under certain circumstances so that low–skilled agents are not offered any work incentives. Optimal bunching balances the marginal costs of voluntary unemployment and the marginal reduction in information rents for high–skilled workers. This paper demonstrates how the optimal scheme will change if the budget is cut. It shows that a tighter budget constraint will lead to more voluntary unemployment and less work incentives.
Natural Theology in Paul? Reading Romans 1.19–20
Authors: Campbell Douglas A.
Published: March 2003

This reading of Romans 1.19–20 suggests that, viewed within the argumentative progression of the letter from 1.18–3.20, these verses are properly understood as a subversion of the premises of natural revelation, rather than an endorsement of them. The traditional account of Paul's argument, in which 1.19–20 announces a theology of natural knowledge of God, is contradicted both by Paul's wider theological commitments and by his attitude to the privileges of Judaism. An alternative construal of the argument considers it as an ad hominem strategy, in which the opening verses serve to recapitulate at the beginning of the argument the presuppositions that Paul seeks ultimately to overthrow.
Ambiguity and Undecidability in Fides et Ratio
Authors: O’Regan Cyril
Published: March 2003

The article offers a response to the encyclical Fides et Ratio, identifying its ambiguity with respect to two issues: the nature of the relation between faith and reason, and the diagnosis of the relation of modernity and postmodernity. The tension between the different accounts in the encyclical is not a flaw but a positive feature of the encyclical as an exercise in catholicity.
From Geneva to Zürich: Jung and French Switzerland
Authors: Shamdasani Sonu
Published: March 2003

An account is given of the constitution of several components of the Freudocentric reading of Jung and the genesis of analytical psychology, which, it is argued, has led to their mislocation in the intellectual history of the twentieth century.
Hexagram 4 of the I Ching: Analytical Psychology and Jung's Developmental Process
Authors: Douglas Claire
Published: March 2003

Theories, as well as history itself, are subject to their archetypal underpinnings, as well as to synchronicity, cyclic and sequential change. Some of Jung's early life experiences, his theories, and their permutations in his followers are considered in relation to Hexagram 4 of the I‐Ching.

Jung's infantile wounds, his lack of adequately mirroring and metabolizing parents gave rise to a Puer Aeternus complex. This complex is explored as it is brought out through the lines of Hexagram 4 in the I‐Ching. The complex is considered as pertinent to some problematical parts of Jung's theory and its impact on analytic history and behavior. Jung's genius and adaptive healing use of the building blocks of this complex are also discussed.

It is proposed that the descendants of Freud and Jung internalize the problems of their forefathers in much the same way that patients internalize the problems of their parents. Particular theories suggest similar personal affinities (and even histories) in their followers. Jung's childhood problems are considered for the way they may reverberate in Jungian practice today.
Destructiveness, atrocities and healing: epistemological and clinical reflections
Authors: Papadopoulos Renos K.
Published: March 2003

In this paper, destructiveness is approached as a multi‐dimensional phenomenon where the mental health perspective addresses only one of these dimensions. An attempt is made to locate this phenomenon in the context of epistemological and societal considerations. Critical of mono‐dimensional explanations based on causal‐reductive epistemology, the paper instead proposes the idea of an ‘ecology of destructiveness’, according to which mental health professionals cannot possibly continue to assume the role of detached observers. The ordinariness and archetypal fascination of destructiveness are discussed as preventing the psychologizing and pathologizing of it. In addition, it is suggested that ‘destructiveness may be a tragic facet of the human condition’, without this implying any justification of it. Based on my work with a group of Bosnian ex‐camp prisoners, some basic principles of how one can work with survivors of atrocities are derived and discussed. A central feature of this work is the attempt to create an appropriate therapeutic context within which a ‘therapeutic presence’ and ‘therapeutic witnessing’ can be developed. Finally, the relevance of Jungian insights to this kind of work is reviewed and the emergence of new types of defences of the self is identified.
Duccio's prayer: mediating destruction and creation with artists in analysis
Authors: Dougherty Mary
Published: March 2003

Using two clinical examples, this essay examines how twentieth century aesthetics has created a cultural context that works against the symbolic function of the art‐making process in artists' lives. The pursuit of art, restricted to serving aesthetic ends, overexposes artists to the creative unconscious unmediated by human connection and thereby abandons them to cycles of narcissistic inflation and despair. In seeking an alternative, Jung's description of the symbolic function provides the basis for engaging the art‐making process within analysis as one way to mediate the destructive and creative dynamics often dominating the lives of artists.
A dark talent: silence in analysis
Authors: Fuller Victoria Graham , Crowther Catherine
Published: March 2003

This paper is presented jointly by two analysts who have worked with patients whose silence stretched over years. They taxed our professional selves and our therapeutic repertoire of responses and techniques to the limit. Partly in response to these experiences, each analyst found herself needing to talk with another who could verify disturbing countertransference reactions from the standpoint of similar experience. The patients' (largely silent) attacks on analysis and their inability to use it conventionally constellated the need in us to talk, in an effort to relieve projected anxiety. Our conversations provided some containment of the destructive fantasies which we found developing in response to lack of verbal interaction with our patients. Unlike patients who project into an analyst in the unconscious hope of finding containment, silent patients project the need for containment, which they then disavow, leaving the analyst carrying the need, and feeling helpless, baffled and undermined in their therapeutic identity (Colman, private communication). In keeping with the theme of this conference, we found that our collaboration about what chronic analytic silence may mean helped to counteract its destructive effect on the analyst‐patient relationship