bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Liberal-conservative differences in inclusion-exclusion strategy choice
Authors: Jasper John D. , Ansted Daniel
Published: January 2023

Inclusion and exclusion strategies for allocation of scarce goods involve different processes. The conditions under which one strategy is chosen in favor of the other, however, have not been fully explicated. In the present study, decision makers chose a single strategy after reading through descriptions of 16 potential organ recipients; they then narrowed the list of transplant candidates. Most liberals chose to use exclusion under conditions of abundance and inclusion under scarcity. In contrast, conservatives preferred an inclusion strategy under abundance and exclusion (though not significantly) under scarcity. Theoretical implications as well as ongoing work in inclusion-exclusion strategy choice, political ideology, and distributive justice are discussed.
“Head versus heart”: Effect of monetary frames on expression of sympathetic magical concerns
Authors: Rozin Paul , Grant Heidi , Weinberg Stephanie , Parker Scott
Published: January 2023

Most American respondents give “irrational,” magical responses in a variety of situations that exemplify the sympathetic magical laws of similarity and contagion. In most of these cases, respondents are aware that their responses (usually rejections, as of fudge crafted to look like dog feces, or a food touched by a sterilized, dead cockroach) are not “scientifically” justified, but they are willing to avow them. We interpret this, in some sense, as “heart over head.” We report in this study that American adults and undergraduates are substantially less likely to acknowledge magical effects when the judgments involve money (amount willing to pay to avoid an “unpleasant” magical contact) than they are when using preference or rating measures. We conclude that in “head-heart” conflicts of this type, money tips the balance towards the former, or, in other words, that money makes the mind less magical.
Innumeracy and incentives: A ratio bias experiment
Authors: Dale Donald , Rudski Jeffrey , Schwarz Adam , Smith Eric
Published: January 2023

The Ratio-Bias phenomenon, observed by psychologist Seymour Epstein and colleagues, is a systematic manifestation of irrationality. When offered a choice between two lotteries, individuals consistently choose the lottery with the greater number of potential successes, even when it offers a smaller probability of success. In the current study, we conduct experiments to confirm this phenomenon and test for the existence of Bias as distinct from general irrationality. Moreover, we examine the effect of introducing a monetary incentive of varying size (depending on the treatment) on the extent of irrational choices within this framework. We confirm the existence of the Bias. Moreover, the existence of an incentive significantly reduces the extent of irrationality exhibited, and that this effect is roughly linear in response to changes in the size of the incentive within the magnitudes investigated.
A note on determining the number of cues used in judgment analysis studies: The issue of type II error
Authors: Beckstead Jason W.
Published: January 2023

Many judgment analysis studies employ multiple regression procedures to estimate the importance of cues. Some studies test the significance of regression coefficients in order to decide whether or not specific cues are attended to by the judge or decision maker. This practice is dubious because it ignores type II error. The purposes of this note are (1) to draw attention to this issue, specifically as it appears in studies of self-insight, (2) to illustrate the problem with examples from the judgment literature, and (3) to provide a simple method for calculating post-hoc power in regression analyses in order to facilitate the reporting of type II errors when regression models are used.
Time preference and its relationship with age, health, and survival probability
Authors: Chao Li-Wei , Szrek Helena , Sousa Pereira Nuno , Pauly Mark V.
Published: January 2023

Although theories from economics and evolutionary biology predict that one's age, health, and survival probability should be associated with one's subjective discount rate (SDR), few studies have empirically tested for these links. Our study analyzes in detail how the SDR is related to age, health, and survival probability, by surveying a sample of individuals in townships around Durban, South Africa. In contrast to previous studies, we find that age is not significantly related to the SDR, but both physical health and survival expectations have a U-shaped relationship with the SDR. Individuals in very poor health have high discount rates, and those in very good health also have high discount rates. Similarly, those with expected survival probability on the extremes have high discount rates. Therefore, health and survival probability, and not age, seem to be predictors of one's SDR in an area of the world with high morbidity and mortality.
Aging and choice: Applications to Medicare Part D
Authors: Tanius Betty E. , Wood Stacey , Hanoch Yaniv , Rice Thomas
Published: January 2023

We examined choice behavior in younger versus older adults using a medical decision-making task similar to Medicare Part D. The study was designed to assess age differences in choice processes in general and specifically designed to examine the effect of choice set size on performance. Data are drawn from a larger study on choice and aging, in which ninety-six younger adults (ages 18–64) and 96 older adults (ages 65–91) selected a prescription drug plan from either 6 or 24 different options. As hypothesized, choice set size was a significant predictor of individuals’ ability to choose the best plan. Participants who were presented with 24 plans were less likely to choose the correct prescription drug plan. Age did not have a negative effect on decision performance; however numeracy and speed of processing significantly affected performance across groups. Older adults were more likely to be characterized as satisficers on a decision personality measure, but this categorization did not predict performance on the choice task.
Decision making in civil disputes: The effects of legal role, frame, and perceived chance of winning
Authors: Gilliland Victoria , Dunn John C.
Published: January 2023

The present study investigates the effect of framing and legal role on the propensity to accept a settlement offer by litigants in a simulated legal dispute. Participants were given four different scenarios that factorially combined legal role (plaintiff vs. defendant) and frame (positive vs. negative). The results indicated that positively framed litigants were more willing to settle than negatively framed litigants independently of legal role. These results were replicated in a second experiment that also asked participants to state their subjective probability of winning. This revealed that the propensity to settle was a joint function of frame and the perceived chance of winning. In contrast to previous research, no systematic effect of legal role was found. It is concluded that the rate of negotiated settlements of legal disputes may be increased by manipulating both of these factors.
Goals and plans in decision making
Authors: Krantz David H. , Kunreuther Howard C.
Published: January 2023

We propose a constructed-choice model for general decision making. The model departs from utility theory and prospect theory in its treatment of multiple goals and it suggests several different ways in which context can affect choice.

It is particularly instructive to apply this model to protective decisions, which are often puzzling. Among other anomalies, people insure against non-catastrophic events, underinsure against catastrophic risks, and allow extraneous factors to influence insurance purchases and other protective decisions. Neither expected-utility theory nor prospect theory can explain these anomalies satisfactorily. To apply this model to the above anomalies, we consider many different insurance-related goals, organized in a taxonomy, and we consider the effects of context on goals, resources, plans and decision rules.

The paper concludes by suggesting some prescriptions for improving individual decision making with respect to protective measures.
On the perception and operationalization of risk perception
Authors: Ganzach Yoav , Ellis Shmuel , Pazy Asya , Ricci-Siag Tali
Published: January 2023

We compare and critique two measures of risk perception. We suggest that a single question — “How risky is the situation?” — captures the concept of risk perception more accurately than the multiple-item measure used by Sitkin and Weingart (1995). In fact, this latter measure inadvertently captures notions of attractiveness or expected return, rather than risk perception. We further propose that the error underlying the construction of Sitkin and Weingart’s measure is explained in terms of a top-down model of risk perception, in which perceived risk and perceived return are consequences, rather than determinants, of attractiveness. Two studies compare the validity of the two alternative measures.
A note on neglect defaulting
Authors: Margolis Howard
Published: January 2023

I introduce the notion of “neglect defaulting,” which labels the propensity to neglect possibilities which are ordinarily sensibly neglected. In familiar contexts we are well-tuned to recognize when to override the default. But outside the range of familiar experience — here in the artificial context of puzzles — these ordinarily benign defaults can make it difficult for even sophisticated subjects, such as readers of this note, to avoid responses which on reflection will be seen as obviously mistaken. A detail of particular importance is that, although subjects are easily prompted to take one step in the direction of reaching a sound response, the tendency to then neglect to consider that another step may be needed is remarkably strong. In each of the five examples the needed but usually neglected second step is quite trivial. Concluding remarks point to consequences for larger questions outside the range of familiar experience, in politics and other contexts out of scale with everyday experience.
Memory reflected in our decisions: Higher working memory capacity predicts greater bias in risky choice
Authors: Corbin Jonathan , McElroy Todd , Black Cassie
Published: January 2023

The current study looks at the role working memory plays in risky-choice framing. Eighty-six participants took the Automatic OSPAN, a measurement of working memory; this was followed by a risky-choice framing task. Participants with high working memory capacities demonstrated well pronounced framing effects, while those with low working memory capacities did not. This pattern suggests that, in a typical risky-choice decision task, elaborative encoding of task information by those with high working memory capacity may lead them to a more biased decision compared to those with low working memory.
(When) are religious people nicer? Religious salience and the “Sunday Effect” on pro-social behavior
Authors: Malhotra Deepak
Published: January 2023

Prior research has found mixed evidence for the long-theorized link between religiosity and pro-social behavior. To help overcome this divergence, I hypothesize that pro-social behavior is linked not to religiosity per se, but rather to the salience of religion and religious norms. I report a field experiment that examined when auction participants will respond to an appeal to continue bidding for secular charitable causes. Religious individuals are more likely than non-religious individuals to respond to an appeal “for charity” only on days that they visit their place of worship; on other days of the week, religiosity has no effect. Notably, the result persists after controlling for a host of factors that may influence bidding, but disappears when the appeal “for charity” is replaced by an appeal to bid for other (i.e., competitive) reasons. Implications for the link between religion and pro-social behavior are discussed.
Emotional reactions to losing explain gender differences in entering a
risky lottery
Authors: Eriksson Kimmo , Simpson Brent
Published: January 2023

A gender difference in risk preferences, with women being more averse to
risky choices, is a robust experimental finding. Speculating on the sources
of this difference, Croson and Gneezy recently pointed to the tendency for
women to experience emotions more strongly and suggested that feeling more
strongly about negative outcomes would lead to greater risk-aversion. Here
we test this hypothesis in an international survey with 424 respondents from
India and 416 from US where we ask questions about a hypothetical lottery.
In both countries we find that emotions about outcomes are stronger among
women, and that this effect partially mediates gender difference in
willingness to enter the lottery.
Maximizing without difficulty: A modified maximizing scale and its correlates
Authors: Lai Linda
Published: January 2023

This article presents several studies that replicate and extend previous research on maximizing. A modified scale for measuring individual maximizing tendency is introduced. The scale has adequate psychometric properties and reflects maximizers’ aspirations for high standards and their preference for extensive alternative search, but not the decision difficulty aspect included in several previous studies. Based on this scale, maximizing is positively correlated with optimism, need for cognition, desire for consistency, risk aversion, intrinsic motivation, self-efficacy and perceived workload, whereas the association with regret is inconsistent. Analysis of correlates of the difficulty dimension suggests that decision difficulty should be conceptualized as a separate dimension rather than as a sub-dimension of maximizing. Opportunities for future research are suggested.
A fine-grained analysis of the jumping-to-conclusions bias in schizophrenia: Data-gathering, response confidence, and information integration
Authors: Glöckner Andreas , Moritz Steffen
Published: January 2023

Impaired decision behavior has been repeatedly observed in schizophrenia patients. We investigated several cognitive mechanisms that might contribute to the jumping-to-conclusions bias (JTC) seen in schizophrenia patients: biases in information-gathering, information weighting and integration, and overconfidence, using the process tracing paradigm Mouselab. Mouselab allows for an in-depth exploration of various decision-making processes in a structured information environment. A total of 37 schizophrenia patients and 30 healthy controls participated in the experiment. Although showing less focused and systematic information search, schizophrenia patients practically considered all pieces of information and showed no JTC in the sense of collecting less pieces of evidence. Choices of patients and controls both approximated a rational solution quite well, but patients showed more extreme confidence ratings. Both groups mainly used weighted additive decision strategies for information integration and only a small proportion relied on simple heuristics. Under high stress induced by affective valence plus time pressure, however, schizophrenia patients switched to equal weighting strategies: less valid cues and more valid ones were weighted equally.
On the relative importance of the hot stove effect and the tendency to rely on small samples
Authors: Fujikawa Takemi
Published: January 2023

Experiments have suggested that decisions fromexperiencediffer from decisions fromdescription. In experience-based decisions, the decision makers often fail to maximise their payoffs. Previous authors have ascribed the effect of underweighting of rare outcomes to this deviation from maximisation. In this paper, I re-examine and provide further analysis on the effect with an experiment that involves a series of simple binary choice gambles. In the current experiment, decisions that bear small consequences are repeated hundreds of times, feedback on the consequence of each decision is provided immediately, and decision outcomes are accumulated. The participants have to learn about the outcome distributions through sampling, as they are not explicitly provided with prior information on the payoff structure. The current results suggest that the “hot stove effect” is stronger than suggested by previous research and is as important as the payoff variability effect and the effect of underweighting of rare outcomes in analysing decisions from experience in which the features of gambles must be learned through a sampling process.
The role of representation in experience-based choice
Authors: Camilleri Adrian R. , Newell Ben R.
Published: January 2023

Recently it has been observed that different choices can be made about
structurally identical risky decisions depending on whether information
about outcomes and their probabilities is learned by description or from
experience. Current evidence is equivocal with respect to whether this
choice “gap” is entirely an artefact of biased samples. The current
experiment investigates whether a representational bias exists at the point
of encoding by examining choice in light of decision makers’ mental
representations of the alternatives, measured with both verbal and nonverbal
judgment probes. We found that, when estimates were gauged by the nonverbal
probe, participants presented with information in description format (as
opposed to experience) had a greater tendency to overestimate rare events
and underestimate common events. The choice gap, however, remained even when
accounting for this judgment distortion and the effects of sampling bias.
Indeed, participants’ estimation of the outcome distribution did not mediate
their subsequent choice. It appears that experience-based choices may derive
from a process that does not explicitly use probability
information.
On the use of recognition in inferential decision making: An overview of the debate
Authors: Pohl Rüdiger F.
Published: January 2023

I describe and discuss the sometimes heated controversy surrounding the recognition heuristic (RH) as a model of inferential decision making. After briefly recapitulating the history of the RH up to its current version, I critically evaluate several specific assumptions and predictions of the RH and its surrounding framework: recognition as a memory-based process; the RH as a cognitive process model; proper conditions of testing the RH; measures of using the RH; reasons for not using the RH; the RH as a non-compensatory strategy; evidence for a Less-is-more effect (LIME); and the RH as part of the toolbox. The collection of these controversial issues may help to better understand the debate, to further sharpen the RH theory, and to develop ideas for future research.
Are groups more likely to defer choice than their members?
Authors: White Chris M. , Hafenbrädl Sebastian , Hoffrage Ulrich , Reisen Nils , Woike Jan K.
Published: January 2023

When faced with a choice, people can normally select no option, i.e., defer choice. Previous research has investigated when and why individuals defer choice, but has almost never looked at these questions when groups of people make choices. Separate reasons predict that groups may be equally likely, more likely, or less likely than individuals to defer choice. We re-analyzed some previously published data and conducted a new experiment to address this question. We found that small groups of people tended to defer choice more often than their members would. Assuming that the groups used a plurality rule but gave additional weight to individual preferences to defer choice allowed the groups’ responses to be predicted quite well. We discuss several possible explanations of these findings.
The effects of total sleep deprivation on bayesian updating
Authors: Dickinson David L. , Drummond Sean P. A.
Published: January 2023

Subjects performed a decision task (Grether, 1980) in both a well-rested and experimentally sleep-deprived state. We found two main results: 1) final choice accuracy was unaffected by sleep deprivation, and yet 2) the estimated decision model differed significantly following sleep-deprivation. Following sleep deprivation, subjects placed significantly less weight on new information in forming their beliefs. Because the altered decision process still maintains decision accuracy, it may suggest that increased accident and error rates attributed to reduced sleep in modern society stem from reduced auxiliary function performance (e.g., slowed reaction time, reduced motor skills) or other components of decision making, rather than the inability to integrate multiple pieces of information.
Who helps more? How self-other discrepancies influence decisions in helping situations
Authors: Kogut Tehila , Beyth-Marom Ruth
Published: January 2023

Research has shown that people perceive themselves as less biased than others, and as better than average in many favorable characteristics. We suggest that these types of biased perceptions regarding intentions and behavior of others may directly affect people’s decisions. In the current research we focus on possible influences in the context of helping behavior. In four experiments we found that, people believe that others, compared to themselves, are less inclined to help and cooperate, are less aware of the number of bystanders and more influenced by the “proportion dominance” bias and by the “identifiable victim effect.” We demonstrate that these perceptions are naïve and unrealistic by showing that decisions from both self and others’ perspectives are equally biased. Finally, we show how the perspective from which a decision is made (self vs. others) may affect private as well as public decisions in ways that might not be in the best interest of the decision maker and the public.
Affective reactions and context-dependent processing of negations
Authors: Rubaltelli Enrico , Slovic Paul
Published: January 2023

Three experiments demonstrate how the processing of negations is contingent on the evaluation context in which the negative information is presented. In addition, the strategy used to process the negations induced different affective reactions toward the stimuli, leading to inconsistency of preference. Participants were presented with stimuli described by either stating the presence of positive features (explicitly positive alternative) or negating the presence of negative features (non-negative alternative). Alternatives were presented for either joint (JE) or separate evaluation (SE). Experiment 1 showed that the non-negative stimuli were judged less attractive than the positive ones in JE but not in SE. Experiment 2 revealed that the non-negative stimuli induced a less clear and less positive feeling when they were paired with explicitly positive stimuli rather than evaluated separately. Non-negative options were also found less easy to judge than the positive ones in JE but not in SE. Finally, Experiment 3 showed that people process negations using two different models depending on the evaluation mode. Through a memory task, we found that in JE people process the non-negative attributes as negations of negative features, whereas in SE they directly process the non-negative attributes as positive features.
Mhairi’s Dilemma: A study of decision analysis at work
Authors: Mullin Barbara , Mullin Mhairi , Mullin Roger , Dowie Jack , Brown Rex V.
Published: January 2023

A case study review of a formal decision analysis involving a 10 year old girl. She had just faced the death of a close adult friend, and had become filled with uncertainty and emotion while facing the decision as to whether or not to attend his funeral. The study demonstrates that formal analysis can provide the sensitivity and caring basis for such decision making, thus counteracting some of the criticisms of decision analysis.
A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment
Authors: Haran Uriel , Moore Don A. , Morewedge Carey K.
Published: January 2023

Overprecision is the most robust type of overconfidence. We present a new method that significantly reduces this bias and offers insight into its underlying cause. In three experiments, overprecision was significantly reduced by forcing participants to consider all possible outcomes of an event. Each participant was presented with the entire range of possible outcomes divided into intervals, and estimated each interval’s likelihood of including the true answer. The superiority of this Subjective Probability Interval Estimate (SPIES) method is robust to range widths and interval grain sizes. Its carryover effects are observed even in subsequent estimates made using the conventional, 90% confidence interval method: judges who first made SPIES judgments considered a broader range of values in subsequent conventional interval estimates as well.
Thoughtful days and valenced nights: How much will you think about the problem?
Authors: McElroy Todd , Dickinson David L.
Published: January 2023

Considerable research has pointed towards processing differences as a viable means for understanding the strength and likelihood of a framing effect. In the current study we explored how differences in processing may emerge through diurnal patters in circadian rhythm, which varies across individuals. We predicted that during circadian off-times, participants would exhibit stronger framing effects whereas framing effects would be relatively weaker during on-times. Six-hundred and eighty five individuals took part in the study; the findings supported our hypothesis, revealing a diurnal pattern of risk responding that varies across the 24-hour circadian cycle.
Towards an understanding of the relative strengths of positive and negative reciprocity
Authors: Al-Ubaydli Omar , Gneezy Uri , Lee Min Sok , List John A.
Published: January 2023

Scholars in economics and psychology have created a large literature studying reward, punishment and reciprocity. Labor markets constitute a popular application of this body of work, with particular emphasis on how reciprocity helps regulate workplace relationships where managers are unable to perfectly monitor workers.

We study how idiosyncratic features of the labor market (compared to most scenarios in which reciprocity applies) affect the nature of worker reciprocity. In particular, we show how having an excess supply of workers (simulating unemployment) and managers who can observe the reciprocal behavior of workers and hire/fire them on that basis (simulating the reputational concerns inherent in labor market transactions) profoundly alters worker reciprocity. In the absence of reputational concerns, workers tend to reward kind behavior and punish unkind behavior by managers in approximately equal measure. In the presence of reputational concerns, workers exhibit a marked increase (decrease) in the propensity to reward kind (punish unkind) behavior by managers. We demonstrate how this is a consequence of workers and managers responding to changes in the strategic incentives to reward and punish.
Measuring Risk Literacy: The Berlin Numeracy Test
Authors: Cokely Edward T. , Galesic Mirta , Schulz Eric , Ghazal Saima , Garcia-Retamero Rocio
Published: January 2023

We introduce the Berlin Numeracy Test, a new psychometrically sound instrument that quickly assesses statistical numeracy and risk literacy. We present 21 studies (n=5336) showing robust psychometric discriminability across 15 countries (e.g., Germany, Pakistan, Japan, USA) and diverse samples (e.g., medical professionals, general populations, Mechanical Turk web panels). Analyses demonstrate desirable patterns of convergent validity (e.g., numeracy, general cognitive abilities), discriminant validity (e.g., personality, motivation), and criterion validity (e.g., numerical and non-numerical questions about risk). The Berlin Numeracy Test was found to be the strongest predictor of comprehension of everyday risks (e.g., evaluating claims about products and treatments; interpreting forecasts), doubling the predictive power of other numeracy instruments and accounting for unique variance beyond other cognitive tests (e.g., cognitive reflection, working memory, intelligence). The Berlin Numeracy Test typically takes about three minutes to complete and is available in multiple languages and formats, including a computer adaptive test that automatically scores and reports data to researchers (http://www.riskliteracy.org). The online forum also provides interactive content for public outreach and education, and offers a recommendation system for test format selection. Discussion centers on construct validity of numeracy for risk literacy, underlying cognitive mechanisms, and applications in adaptive decision support.
Nudge to nobesity I: Minor changes in accessibility decrease food intake
Authors: Rozin Paul , Scott Sydney , Dingley Megan , Urbanek Joanna K. , Jiang Hong , Kaltenbach Mark
Published: January 2023

Very small but cumulated decreases in food intake may be sufficient to erase obesity over a period of years. We examine the effect of slight changes in the accessibility of different foods in a pay-by-weight-of-food salad bar in a cafeteria serving adults for the lunch period. Making a food slightly more difficult to reach (by varying its proximity by about 10 inches) or changing the serving utensil (spoon or tongs) modestly but reliably reduces intake, in the range of 8–16%. Given this effect, it is possible that making calorie-dense foods less accessible and low-calorie foods more accessible over an extended period of time would result in significant weight loss.
Nudge to nobesity II: Menu positions influence food orders
Authors: Dayan Eran , Bar-Hillel Maya
Published: January 2023

“Very small but cumulated decreases in food intake may be sufficient to have significant effects, even erasing obesity over a period of years” (Rozin et al., 2011). In two studies, one a lab study and the other a real-world study, we examine the effect of manipulating the position of different foods on a restaurant menu. Items placed at the beginning or the end of the list of their category options were up to twice as popular as when they were placed in the center of the list. Given this effect, placing healthier menu items at the top or bottom of item lists and less healthy ones in their center (e.g., sugared drinks vs. calorie-free drinks) should result in some increase in favor of healthier food choices.
How comparing decision outcomes affects subsequent decisions: The carry-over of a comparative mind-set
Authors: Raeva Daniela , van Dijk Eric , Zeelenberg Marcel
Published: January 2023

In the current paper we investigate how feedback over decision outcomes may affect future decisions. In an experimental study we demonstrate that if people receive feedback over the outcomes they obtained (“factual outcomes”) and the outcomes they would have obtained had they decided differently (“counterfactual outcomes”), they become regret-averse in subsequent decisions. This effect is not only observed when this feedback evoked regret (with counterfactual outcomes being higher than factual outcomes), but even when the feedback evoked no regret (with factual outcomes being equal to counterfactual outcomes). The findings suggest that this effect on subsequent decisions is at least partly due to the transfer of a comparison mind-set triggered in the prior choice.
Who throws good money after bad? Action vs. state orientation moderates the sunk cost fallacy
Authors: Putten Marijke van , Zeelenberg Marcel , Dijk Eric van
Published: January 2023

The sunk cost fallacy is the tendency to continue an endeavour once an investment in money, effort, or time has been made. We studied how people’s chronic orientation to cope with failing projects (i.e., action vs. state orientation) influences the occurrence of this sunk cost effect. We found that people with a state orientation, who have a tendency to ruminate about past events and have a hard time to let go of them, were especially prone to fall in the sunk cost trap. People with an action orientation, who more easily let go of past events, were not susceptible to the sunk cost effect. We discuss the implications of these results for the sunk cost fallacy literature.
How do jurors argue with one another?
Authors: Warren Joshua , Kuhn Deanna
Published: January 2023

We asked jurors awaiting trial assignment to listen to a recorded synopsis of an authentic criminal trial and to make a choice among 4 verdict possibilities. Each participant juror then deliberated with another juror whose verdict choice differed, as a microcosm of a full jury’s deliberation. Analysis of the transcripts of these deliberations revealed both characteristics general to the sample and characteristics for which variation appeared across participants. Findings were interpreted in terms of a model of juror reasoning as entailing theory-evidence coordination. More frequently than challenging the other’s statements, we found, a juror agreed with and added to or elaborated them. Epistemological stance — whether knowledge was regarded as absolute and certain or subject to interpretation — predicted several characteristics of discourse. Absolutists were less likely to make reference to the verdict criteria in their discourse. Those who did so, as well as those who made frequent reference to the evidence, were more likely to persuade their discourse partners.
The wisdom of ignorant crowds: Predicting sport outcomes by mere recognition
Authors: Herzog Stefan M. , Hertwig Ralph
Published: January 2023

The collective recognition heuristic is a simple forecasting heuristic that bets on the fact that people’s recognition knowledge of names is a proxy for their competitiveness: In sports, it predicts that the better-known team or player wins a game. We present two studies on the predictive power of recognition in forecasting soccer games (World Cup 2006 and UEFA Euro 2008) and analyze previously published results. The performance of the collective recognition heuristic is compared to two benchmarks: predictions based on official rankings and aggregated betting odds. Across three soccer and two tennis tournaments, the predictions based on recognition performed similar to those based on rankings; when compared with betting odds, the heuristic fared reasonably well. Forecasts based on rankings—but not on betting odds—were improved by incorporating collective recognition information. We discuss the use of recognition for forecasting in sports and conclude that aggregating across individual ignorance spawns collective wisdom.
Cognitive determinants of affective forecasting errors
Authors: Hoerger Michael , Quirk Stuart W. , Lucas Richard E. , Carr Thomas H.
Published: January 2023

Often to the detriment of human decision making, people are prone to an impact bias when making affective forecasts, overestimating the emotional consequences of future events. The cognitive processes underlying the impact bias, and methods for correcting it, have been debated and warrant further exploration. In the present investigation, we examined both individual differences and contextual variables associated with cognitive processing in affective forecasting for an election. Results showed that the perceived importance of the event and working memory capacity were both associated with an increased impact bias for some participants, whereas retrieval interference had no relationship with bias. Additionally, an experimental manipulation effectively reduced biased forecasts, particularly among participants who were most distracted thinking about peripheral life events. These findings have theoretical implications for understanding the impact bias, highlight the importance of individual differences in affective forecasting, and have ramifications for future decision making research. The possible functional role of the impact bias is discussed within the context of evolutionary psychology.
Allowing repeat winners
Authors: Huesch Marco D. , Brady Richard
Published: January 2023

Unbiased lotteries seem the least unfair and simplest procedures to allocate scarce indivisible resources to those with equal claims. But, when lotteries are repeated, it is not immediately obvious whether prior winners should be included or excluded. As in design questions surrounding single-shot lotteries, considerations of self-interest and distributive social preferences may interact. We investigate preferences for allowing participation of earlier winners in sequential lotteries. We found a strong preference for exclusion, both in settings where subjects were involved, and those where they were not. Subjects who answered questions about both settings did not differ in their tendency to prefer exclusion. Stated rationales significantly predicted choice but did not predict switching of choices between the two settings.
Running experiments on Amazon Mechanical Turk
Authors: Paolacci Gabriele , Chandler Jesse , Ipeirotis Panagiotis G.
Published: January 2023

Although Mechanical Turk has recently become popular among social scientists as a source of experimental data, doubts may linger about the quality of data provided by subjects recruited from online labor markets. We address these potential concerns by presenting new demographic data about the Mechanical Turk subject population, reviewing the strengths of Mechanical Turk relative to other online and offline methods of recruiting subjects, and comparing the magnitude of effects obtained using Mechanical Turk and traditional subject pools. We further discuss some additional benefits such as the possibility of longitudinal, cross cultural and prescreening designs, and offer some advice on how to best manage a common subject pool.
Choice processes and their post-decisional consequences in morally conflicting decisions
Authors: Krosch Amy R. , Figner Bernd , Weber Elke U.
Published: January 2023

Morally challenging decisions tend to be perceived as difficult by decision makers and often lead to post-decisional worry or regret. To test potential causes of these consequences, we employed realistic, morally challenging scenarios with two conflicting choice options. In addition to respondents’ choices, we collected various ratings of choice options, decision-modes employed, as well as physiological arousal, assessed via skin conductance. Not surprisingly, option ratings predicted choice, such that the more positively rated option was chosen. However, respondents’ self-reported decision modes also independently predicted choice. We further found thatsimultaneouslyengaging in decision modes that predict opposing choices increased decision difficulty and post-decision worry. In some cases this was related to increased arousal. Results suggest that at least a portion of the negative consequences associated with morally challenging decisions can be attributed to conflict in the decision modes one engages in.
Focusing on what you own: Biased information uptake due to ownership
Authors: Ashby Nathaniel J. S. , Dickert Stephan , Glöckner Andreas
Published: January 2023

The endowment effect has been debated for over 30 years. Recent research suggests that differential focus of attention might play a role in shaping preferences. In two studies we investigated the role of biased attention in the emergence of endowment effects. We thereby derive predictions from an extended version of evidence accumulation models by additionally assuming a bias in attentional allocation based on one’s endowment status. We test these predictions against an alternative account in which the endowment effect is the result of initial anchoring and adjustment differences (Sequential Value Matching model; Johnson & Busemeyer, 2005). In both studies we add deliberation time constraints to a standard Willingness-to-Accept/Willingness-to-Pay paradigm and consistently find that the endowment effect grows as deliberation time increases. In Study 2 we additionally use eye tracking and find that buyers focus more on value decreasing attributes than sellers (and vice versa for value increasing attributes). This shift in attention plays a pivotal role in the construction of value and partially mediates the endowment effect.
Cognitive processes, models and metaphors in decision research
Authors: Newell Ben R. , Bröder Arndt
Published: January 2023

Decision research in psychology has traditionally been influenced by thehomo oeconomicusmetaphor with its emphasis on normative models and deviations from the predictions of those models. In contrast, the principal metaphor of cognitive psychology conceptualizes humans as ‘information processors’, employing processes of perception, memory, categorization, problem solving and so on. Many of the processes described in cognitive theories are similar to those involved in decision making, and thus increasing cross-fertilization between the two areas is an important endeavour. A wide range of models and metaphors has been proposed to explain and describe ‘information processing’ and many models have been applied to decision making in ingenious ways. This special issue encourages cross-fertilization between cognitive psychology and decision research by providing an overview of current perspectives in one area that continues to highlight the benefits of the synergistic approach: cognitive modeling of multi-attribute decision making. In this introduction we discuss aspects of the cognitive system that need to be considered when modeling multi-attribute decision making (e.g., automatic versus controlled processing, learning and memory constraints, metacognition) and illustrate how such aspects are incorporated into the approaches proposed by contributors to the special issue. We end by discussing the challenges posed by the contrasting and sometimes incompatible assumptions of the models and metaphors.
Consumers can make decisions in as little as a third of a second
Authors: Milosavljevic Milica , Koch Christof , Rangel Antonio
Published: January 2023

We make hundreds of decisions every day, many of them extremely quickly and without much explicit deliberation. This motivates two important open questions: What is the minimum time required to make choices with above chance accuracy? What is the impact of additional decision-making time on choice accuracy? We investigated these questions in four experiments in which subjects made binary food choices using saccadic or manual responses, under either “speed” or “accuracy” instructions. Subjects were able to make above chance decisions in as little as 313 ms, and choose their preferred food item in over 70% of trials at average speeds of 404 ms. Further, slowing down their responses by either asking them explicitly to be confident about their choices, or to respond with hand movements, generated about a 10% increase in accuracy. Together, these results suggest that consumers can make accurate every-day choices, akin to those made in a grocery store, at significantly faster speeds than previously reported.
Real and hypothetical rewards in self-control and social discounting
Authors: Locey Matthew L. , Jones Bryan A. , Rachlin Howard
Published: January 2023

Laboratory studies of choice and decision making among real monetary rewards typically use smaller real rewards than those common in real life. When laboratory rewards are large, they are almost always hypothetical. In applying laboratory results meaningfully to real-life situations, it is important to know the extent to which choices among hypothetical rewards correspond to choices among real rewards and whether variation of the magnitude of hypothetical rewards affects behavior in meaningful ways. The present study compared real and hypothetical monetary rewards in two experiments. In Experiment 1, participants played a temporal discounting game that incorporates the logic of a repeated prisoner’s-dilemma (PD) game versus tit-for-tat; choice of one alternative (“defection” in PD terminology) resulted in a small-immediate reward; choice of the other alternative (“cooperation” in PD terminology) resulted in a larger reward delayed until the following trial. The larger-delayed reward was greater for half of the groups than for the other half. Rewards also differed in type across groups: multiples of real nickels, hypothetical nickels, or hypothetical hundred-dollar bills. All groups significantly increased choice of the larger delayed reward over the 40 trials of the experiment. Over the last 10 trials, cooperation was significantly higher when the difference between larger and smaller hypothetical rewards was greater. Reward type (real or hypothetical) made no significant difference in cooperation on most measures. In Experiment 2, real and hypothetical rewards were compared in social discounting—the decrease in value to the giver of a reward as social distance increases to the receiver of the reward. Social discount rates were well described by a hyperbolic function. Discounting rates for real and hypothetical rewards did not significantly differ. These results add to the evidence that results of experiments with hypothetical rewards validly apply in everyday life.
Correspondence and coherence in science: A brief historical perspective
Authors: Dawson Neal V. , Gregory Fredrick
Published: January 2023

This paper introduces historical aspects of the concepts correspondence and coherence with emphasis on the nineteenth century when key aspects of modern science were emerging. It is not intended to be a definitive history of the concepts of correspondence and coherence as they have been used across the centuries in the field of inquiry that we now call science. Rather it is a brief history that highlights the apparent origins of the concepts and provides a discussion of how these concepts contributed to two important science related controversies. The first relates to aspects of evolution in which correspondence and coherence, as competing theories of truth, played a central role. The controversy about evolution continues into the beginning of the twenty-first century in forms that are recognizably similar to those of the middle of the nineteenth century. The second controversy relates to the etiology of blood-born infections (sepsis) during childbirth (childbed fever). In addition to correspondence and coherence, the authors introduce other theories of truth and discuss an evolutionarily cogent theory of truth, the pragmatic theory of truth.
Are patient decision aids effective? Insight from revisiting the debate between correspondence and coherence theories of judgment
Authors: Shaffer Victoria A. , Hulsey Lukas
Published: January 2023

Research endeavors to determine the effectiveness of patient decision aids (PtDAs) have yielded mixed results. The conflicting evaluations are largely due to the different metrics used to assess the validity of judgments made using PtDAs. The different approaches can be characterized by Hammond’s (1996) two frameworks for evaluating judgments: correspondence and coherence. This paper reviews the literature on the effectiveness of PtDAs and recasts this argument as a renewed debate between these two meta-theories of judgment. Evaluation by correspondence criteria involves measuring the impact of patient decision aids on metrics for which there are objective, external, and empirically justifiable values. Evaluation on coherence criteria involves assessing the degree to which decisions follow the logical implications of internal, possibly subjective, value systems/preferences. Coherence can exist absent of correspondence and vice versa. Therefore, many of the seemingly conflicting results regarding the effectiveness of PtDAs can be reconciled by considering that the two meta-theories contribute unique perspectives. We argue that one approach cannot substitute for the other, and researchers should not deny the value of either approach. Furthermore, we suggest that future research evaluating PtDAs include both correspondence and coherence criteria.