bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Purposes and Quality of Graduate Education in the Management Sciences
Authors: Cook S. L.
Published: November 2008

The questions asked in Professor Churchman's letter of November 17, 1969, sound simple enough, but it would take a book to answer them fully. They are questions fundamental to the future of the management sciences. The statement below attempts to summarize the purpose and aims of the OR/Systems Section of the Department of Industrial Administration in the University of Aston in Birmingham, and to relate these to present and planned graduate courses. Since the present courses commenced less than two years ago and planned courses are some way off, most of our aims have yet to be achieved.
The Theory of Networks and Management Science: Part II
Authors: Elmaghraby Salah E.
Published: November 2008

The second part of the expository paper started with Elmaghraby, S. E. 1970. The theory of networks and management science. Part I. Management Sci. 17(1, September) 1–34.
Modular Allocation Technique (MAT)
Authors: Edwards Harry K. , Gillett Billy E. , Hale Monta E.
Published: November 2008

The major problem in “layout” is to determine the most economical relative location of facilities. MAT is a construction technique utilizing the distances between all pairs of locations and the loads transported between all pairs of facilities per unit time to approximate the optimal allocation of the facilities to the locations. The MAT general algorithm, an example problem and a theorem relating the MAT solution to the optimal solution are given. A computer program has been written that will apply MAT to the allocation problem for a maximum of 40 facilities.
Horizon Models for Social Development
Authors: Charnes A. , Kirby M. J. L. , Walters A. S.
Published: November 2008

This paper discusses models for planning the social development of a country. These models are intended to provide some understanding and assessment of inter-temporal changes in social groups through industrial, educational, health, etc. opportunities and constraints over a time horizon. They thus include constraints and goals for planning the improvement in living conditions and the upgrading of different segments of society. The models also make extensive use of various sociological factors. While these models are presented in the context of a developing nation, the concepts, attributes and formalisms are not limited to such cases.
An Approach to the Analysis of Vocational Education and Training Requirements
Authors: Kodama Fumio
Published: November 2008

Systematic approaches to the problems of education and training are difficult because so many social and psychological variables are involved.

As education and training can be viewed as a system, system analysis can be applied. Therefore, in this study, the education and training system is formalized in the form of a matrix which shows the relationship between curriculum and the behavior of the skilled worker who is adequately educated and trained.

Based on the matrix, the optimal time allocation in the curriculum was solved. Crane work in the Japanese steel industry was selected as the subject of the study and the procedures by which the formalization can be applied to a practical problem were developed.
Computer Augmented Organizational Problem Solving
Authors: Joyner Robert , Tunstall Kenneth
Published: November 2008

CONCORD (Conference Coordinator) is a computer program based on Cyert and March and Simon's theory of problem solving. It tutors groups in general strategies of problem solving. Groups interact with CONCORD in conversational mode over a remote terminal, and can bring it a wide variety of problems requiring coordination. The paper outlines the development of CONCORD and describes an experimental study comparing groups using CONCORD with those not using it in solving two problems. The study shows no difference between user and nonuser groups in quality of solutions to the two problems.
Facilities Planning with Graph Theory
Authors: Seppänen Jouko , Moore James M.
Published: November 2008

Basic concepts of Graph Theory are discussed which are relevant to solving problems of locating economic activities within a service or manufacturing facility. The location problem is formulated in terms of Graph Theory knowledge and a solution procedure proposed. An example is provided and finally boundary conditions are elaborated.
An Adaptive Group Theoretic Algorithm for Integer Programming Problems
Authors: Gorry G. Anthony , Shapiro Jeremy F.
Published: November 2008

Group theory is used to integrate a wide variety of integer programming methods into a common computational process. Included are group optimization algorithms, Lagrangian methods, the cutting plane method, and the method of surrogate constraints. These methods are controlled by a supervisor which performs four main functions: set-up, directed search, subproblem analysis, and prognosis.

Some computational experience is given. One appendix contains an algorithm for dynamically solving unconstrained group problems. A second appendix gives an algorithm for solving zero-one group problems.
Capital Expenditure Programming and Some Alternative Approaches to Risk
Authors: Peterson D. E. , Laughhunn D. J.
Published: November 2008

This paper investigates the potential reduction in decision-making effort in capital budgeting problems obtainable through the use of measures of risk in addition to variance. Specific measures of risk treated are Baumol's lower confidence limit and the maximum probability of loss. The primary purpose of the paper is to present a methodology which imposes certain “constraining relations” on acceptable investment programs rather than one which appeals to a specific utility function as the basis for ordering choices. In this connection a discussion of several different utility functions is presented, along with an analysis of their usefulness when the probability distributions of net present values for various investment portfolios cannot be taken as known. In addition, some of the logical problems involved in constructing a utility function are examined.
Précis—User-Oriented Computer Modeling Environments
Authors: Nugent Christopher E. , Vollmann Thomas E. , Howell A. Harold , Schuldenfrei Robert L. , Westfall James R.
Published: November 2008

Evolution in models for problem solving is inevitable and desirable; as goals are achieved (or problems solved) new, more fundamental or telling, problems are identified leading to model revisions and better problem solutions. The speed of the evolution is dependent on two major factors: the inherent flexibility of the model and relationship of the model user to the model designer. This paper focuses on these two factors in the modeling environment. It is critical to note that the direction or course of the evolution can only be determined by users since they have the relevant goals, objectives, or criteria; expert model builders are much more capable of problem solution than of problem formulation or identification.
Considering Competition in Media Planning
Authors: Lodish Leonard M.
Published: November 2008

A normative mathematical procedure for the media planning problem is proposed which explicitly considers the effect of competitors' media schedules. A predictive model is developed to evaluate expected market response due to an advertising media schedule considering the anticipated schedules of competitors as well as other major advertising phenomena. Heuristic search routines are used to select and schedule media with the objective of maximizing market response subject to budget limitations. The procedure has been applied on real problems.

The market response model first divides people into market segments which are characterized by product class sales potential. Ads placed by the competing firms cause people in segments to be exposed to this advertising and thereby create a level of exposure value which decays over time in the absence of new exposures. The individual's response during a time period is a function of his retained exposure value for each competing firm and his market segment. Summing over individuals and over time to obtain total market response is approximated analytically using media coverage and overlap data that is relatively easy to gather and store.
Dimensional and Computational Analysis in Stationary (s, S) Inventory Problems with Gamma Distributed Demand
Authors: Sivazlian B. D.
Published: November 2008

In the stationary periodic review (s, S) inventory system with stationary demand and immediate delivery of orders, the optimal values of s and S, say s* and S*, will be a function of the input parameters defining the cost structure and the demand distribution. Assume backlogging is allowed and let the fixed order cost be K, the unit holding cost be h, and the unit penalty cost be p. Further, assume the demand per period to have a gamma distribution of order r and with parameter μ. A dimensional analysis of the basic equations dictating the optimal values s* and Q* = S* − s* shows that it is possible to express the quantities μs* and μQ* as a function of the three factors p/h, 2Kμ/h, and r. This reduces the number of input parameters from five to three and enables one to compute values of μs* and μQ* for a range of values of the three input factors. A selected set of graphs is presented allowing one to read the optimal values for given input parameters.
On the Methodology of Solution Synthesis
Authors: Bartee Edwin M.
Published: November 2008

The persistence of many old problems suggests that our unilateral approaches to solutions are inadequate. A change in outlook has been fostered by the systems viewpoint, resulting in a movement toward a more creative formulation of systems and a dissolution of disciplinary boundaries, The systems approach is open-ended, however, and does not have the perspective that is necessary for developing meaningful solutions for complex problems. We must concern ourselves with the elements of synthesis that would close the problem loop, that is, a methodology of solution synthesis. A theory of solution synthesis is developed within the context of social behavior. Many of the concepts utilized in the development of this theory were drawn from the knowledge attributed to general systems theory. A formal phenomenological theory for solution synthesis is presented as eight propositions with inference into a social context. The application of the theory for solution synthesis is illustrated through the development of a plan for urban citizen participation.
A Control Approach to Insurance Loss Reserving
Authors: King William K.
Published: November 2008

Most casualty insurance loss reserving has been performed on a “case basis” without regard to the causal factors which affect losses—accident frequency, accident severity, and the firm's exposure to claims. Here, a control approach is developed which permits the loss reserve decision-maker to establish loss reserves on the basis of these indicators of the current loss environment.
Economic Ordering Frequency for two Items Jointly Replenished
Authors: Shu Frank T.
Published: November 2008

The decision model to be presented is typically applicable to the batch processing industry where a batch of product is blended and subsequently packaged into various types of containers.

When a product is packaged into more than one type container immediately after its manufacture, these items are said to be jointly replenished. In the case of joint replenishment, the economic lot size for each item cannot be determined without considering the rest of the items within the group. This is so because each time a batch of a product is made, there is a primary set-up cost for the manufacture of the product and a secondary set-up cost for each of the items to be packaged within the jointly replenished group. If the packaging set-up costs are very high, it may be more economical to package certain “slow moving” items less often than the “fast moving items.” Specifically, one could package a “slow moving” item once every other time or every third time a batch of product is made.

An analytical model has been developed to provide a set of criteria which one can use as a basis for applying “skipping rules” to the slow moving item within a jointly replenished group.
Queue Length Dependent Priority Queues
Authors: Balachandran K. R.
Published: November 2008

Priority rules that are mixtures of pre-emption and postponable rules are analyzed. Whether a pre-emption occurs is made to depend on some factor in addition to priority class. A lower priority customer is pre-empted if and only if the queue length of higher priority customers is N, a decision parameter. The stochastic model (without priorities) is that of the M/G/1 queue. First moment expressions (e.g., expected number of customers in the system) in the steady state case are obtained for each priority class, using the concept of work conservation.

A linear cost model is introduced which is a function of expected waiting time and expected number of pre-emptions. By considering a parametric class of rules determined by the decision parameter, the problem of finding an optimal rule is formulated.
Smoothing Production by Inventory—An Application of the Wiener Filtering Theory
Authors: Schneeweiss Christoph A.
Published: November 2008

In many cases it will be possible to separate a production smoothing problem into two parts. One part describes a feedforward production smoothing which may be considered as a “gross regulation.” The other part then smoothes the remaining regulation errors of the first part. This “fine regulation” is performed by an application of the Wiener Newton Theory which allows us to calculate an optimal feedback production policy. It can be shown that if the output of the feedforward part (regulation error) is Gaussian, then the Wiener Newton Theory may be applied even in the case of non-quadratic cost criteria. It is not required that demand in successive time periods be independent, as is usually assumed in the classical approaches working with dynamic programming.
A Generalized Goal Decomposition Model
Authors: Ruefli Timothy W.
Published: November 2008

A decomposition model is developed which can be interpreted as a representation of decision-making in a three-level hierarchical organization. The central unit coordinates decision activity by generating goals for a subordinate level of management units. These latter are responsible for generating the economic indicators that (1) allow the central unit to evaluate its goal generating policies, and (2) guide the alternative generation activities of third level operating units. Because of the absence of a global objective function for the organization the decision activity is shown to be dependent on the structure of the organization (i.e., the solutions of the model are affected by the structure and degree of decomposition). Thus, unlike existing decomposition models, the model treats organization structure as a variable in the decision-making process. This feature of the model is shown to have implications for organizational design.
Least d-Majorized Network Flows with Inventory and Statistical Applications
Authors: Veinott Arthur F.
Published: November 2008

It is shown that for any feasible network flow model, there is a flow which simultaneously minimizes every d-Schur convex function of the flows emanating from a single distinguished node called the source. The vector of flows emanating from the source in the minimizing flow is unique and is the “least d-majorized” flow. This flow can be found by solving the problem for the special case where the d-Sehur convex function is separable and quadratic. Once this flow is found, the solution of the dual problem is reduced to evaluating the conjugate of a function appearing in the dual objective function at the above flow. This computation is extremely simple when the function is separable. These results are extended to situations in which the variables must be integers. An important special case of the problem can be solved geometrically by choosing, from among all paths joining two points in the plane and lying between two given nonintersecting paths, the path with minimum euclidian length. Applications of the results are given, to deterministic production-distribution models (e.g., the Modigliani-Hohn [30] production smoothing model), certain of the stochastic inventory-redistribution models examined by Ignall and Veinott [27], a deterministic price speculation and storage model (including Cahn's warehouse problem [11]), and a zero lead time case of the Clark-Scarf series multi-echelon model [13]. In addition, applications are given to several maximum likelihood estimation problems in which the parameters satisfy certain linear inequalities, e.g., those surveyed in Brunk [8], [9, pp. 1347–1349], and a few others.
Optimal Smoothing of Shipments in Response to Orders
Authors: Peterson Rein
Published: November 2008

In the American economy practically no penalty for fluctuations in placing orders is incurred by the ordering company, even though such fluctuations are costly to manufacturers and to the economy as a whole. In particular, dynamic pricing by suppliers, which would communicate information on desirable and undesirable times for placing orders, is seldom used in practice. In this paper we extend the Holt, Modigliani, Muth and Simon (H.M.M.S.) aggregate production-work force scheduling model by not requiring the manufacturer to ship exactly what is ordered. Our model provides a means of balancing the costs and benefits (to the manufacturer) of smoothing shipments in response to orders and therefore could be used as an aid in establishing dynamic prices.
Economically Optimal Determination of the Parameters of X̄-Control Chart
Authors: Gibra Isaac N.
Published: November 2008

This paper seeks a theoretical basis for determining the optimal parameters of the X̄-chart under the specified conditions. These parameters are the sample size, the factor determining the spread of the control limits, and the intersample interval. The paper shows how to determine these parameters under sound practical assumptions so that the relevant cost function is minimized. Illustrative examples show how the formulated model can be applied.
A Shuttle Car Assignment Problem in the Mining Industry
Authors: Reynolds Gary H.
Published: November 2008

Shuttle cars form a part of the standard equipment employed by the mining industry in the transportation of coal when using the room-and-piller method for extracting coal from underground seams. These cars are subject to frequent failure, so the problem of assigning shuttle cars to sections of the mine is considered in this paper, with the objective of maximizing expected output. A particularly simple solution is found that could be used readily by any mine foreman.
State-Dependent System Residence times for time Shared Queues
Authors: Kimbleton Stephen R.
Published: November 2008

In this paper we obtain the Laplace-Stieltjes transform of the time an arriving customer spends in an FBN queueing system until completion of service at the kth level (1 ≦ k ≦ N) given that at least k levels of service are required. The results are conditioned upon the state of the system at the time of arrival of the customer.
Communications to the Editor—A Comment on Location Models
Authors: Deighton Donald M.
Published: November 2008

In their recent survey of location models, ReVelle et al. [ReVelle, C., D. Marks, J. Liebman. 1970. An analysis of private and public sector location models. Management Sci. 10(11, July) 692–707.] touched briefly on the problem of variations over time in the optimum network of facilities: Are locations set in order to be most efficient with todays population, ten years hence or twenty years hence or an average of all three? This question was left unanswered as it is left unanswered elsewhere in the literature on location studies. However, the question is surely answerable, and the purpose of this note is to describe the approach which has been used by the author in answering this question.
Communications to the Editor—Response to: “A Communication on Adaptive Smoothing using Evolutionary Spectra”
Authors: Rao Ambar G. , Shapiro Arthur
Published: November 2008

The authors' response to Chandmal, A., C. Jayaraj. 1971. Communications to the editor—A communication on adaptive smoothing using evolutionary spectra. Management Sci. 18(1, September) 112–113.
Maximal Flow in a Multi-Terminal Network with Any One Arc Subject to Failure
Authors: Doulliez Pierre J. , Rao M. R.
Published: November 2008

A multi-terminal network consists of several demand nodes connected to a common source node through several intermediate nodes. The requirements at the demand nodes are nondecreasing functions of time. It is required to find the maximum time up to which all demands can be satisfied. In this paper two methods are given for solving the problem when the arc capacities are specified. The same problem is also considered for the case in which any one arc of the network may fail, that is, any one arc may assume a specified lower capacity for that arc. An efficient method for solving this problem is also presented.
Rearranging Matrices to Block-Angular form for Decomposition (And Other) Algorithms
Authors: Weil Roman L. , Kettler Paul C.
Published: November 2008

The rows and columns of an arbitrary coefficient matrix of large numerical problems can often be permuted so that substantial time can be saved in computations. For example, if a large linear programming problem has a suitable block-angular structure, one of the time-saving decomposition algorithms can be used. This article presents a systematic method for effecting such a block-angular permutation. An example and the results of manipulations of matrices with more than 300 rows and 2500 columns are shown.
A Markov Decision Model for Selecting Optimal Credit Control Policies
Authors: Liebman Leon H.
Published: November 2008

The rapid growth of consumer credit has created a need for improved credit control policies which result in lower total credit costs. This paper investigates one approach for achieving that objective. The credit control problem is formulated as one of developing optimal policies for an infinite horizon Markov decision model. The model utilizes standard financial data; it also requires the measurement of the costs and returns from alternative credit control policies. The Markov model is transformed into an equivalent linear program. A sample problem is solved and the resulting policies analyzed.
Optimal Inventory Policies under a Hierarchy of Setup Costs
Authors: Simmons Donald M.
Published: November 2008

This paper considers multi-product inventory problems which are subject to an order cost or setup cost hierarchy of the following form: all replenishment orders issued in any given scheduling period are filled in the next period, with the total setup cost of replenishing N different products in one period being S + sN. The values of N observed in the various periods, and therefore the expected setup cost per job, depend on the unknown lot sizes. This type of setup cost dependence can arise in simple inventory problems but is more commonly found in production environments in which the setup cost for a given job depends on the job immediately preceding it in the production schedule. Assuming demands to be random with known probability distributions, an iterative algorithm is presented for computing optimal lot sizes and reorder points for a set of heterogeneous products.
A Simplified Portrayal for Certain Decision Making Problems
Authors: Johnson Ross H.
Published: November 2008

The method described here provides a simple portrayal of a decision making sequence, where the decision variable differs from the quantity which varies with uncertainty. The graphical portrayal in three dimensions provides a basis from which conventional dynamic programming concepts can be applied to a class of problems which is difficult to clearly illustrate on a planar graph or decision tree. The analysis procedure is followed through for two practical examples involving decisions between two alternative equipments or plans where lease costs, costs of usage, and penalty costs are involved. The problem is similar to other cost minimization problems encountered in business and industry, and the method can be readily applied with elementary mathematical computations.
Preface to the Discussion of the ORSA Guidelines
Authors: Churchman C. West
Published: November 2008

The September 1971 issue of Operations Research contains an ORSA committee's report entitled “Guidelines for the Practice of Operations Research.” The issue also contains other material relating to a dispute concerning a specific operations research project. It occurred to me that members of The Institute of Management Sciences might well have an interest, not in the dispute, but in the Guidelines, since these are obviously closely related to the significance of the practice of applied management science. Many of the members of The Institute of Management Sciences over the years have had an intense interest in the meaning of “the scientific method” as it relates to management science, not only in the model building aspects of the science, but in the broader concerns which occur in applications.
Commentary on ORSA Guidelines
Authors: Wagner Harvey M.
Published: November 2008

Who says a committee can't write a cogent report? Having reread the Guidelines and Appendix I (pp. 1127–1148) several times since publication, I am favorably impressed with the document's perspicacity. I make this statement not only to extend my compliments to the ORSA Ad Hoc Committee for a fine piece of work, but to caution Management Science readers in interpreting the comments to follow. My remarks below are meant to be hopefully helpful suggestions for subsequent versions of the Guidelines. To save space and reading time, I have refrained from explicitly enumerating the very many points in the Guidelines on which I wholeheartedly agree.
A Student Appraisal of the Proposed Guidelines for Operations Research
Authors: Carpio D. , Cohen B. , Eldred J. , Gangavane V. , Greiner J. , Hall J. , Jayaraman L. L. , Joglekar P. , Levine R. , Noad A. , Prasow S. , Sagasti F. , Smith F.
Published: November 2008

(Foreword by Russell L. Ackoff, University of Pennsylvania) A number of my students have had their hackles up ever since the Guidelines appeared. They have been frustrated by their inability to do anything about them. Therefore, when an invitation to contribute to this discussion came to me, I asked them to substitute for me. What they have written is much more provocative and useful than, anything I could have done.
Reflections on the ORSA Guidelines: A Story, a Poem and a Commentary
Authors: Peters Paul , Nelson John , Kim Chai , Rathswohl Eugene
Published: November 2008

A story and a poem are presented as vehicles through which to express the authors' impressions of the Guidelines for the practice of operations research issued by the Operations Research Society of America. A commentary on the story and poem is included. This commentary makes the points that the language of the Guidelines is inappropriate to both the practitioner of operations research and his or her client, and that the Guidelines allow and approve of inhumane behavior on the part of a practitioner of operations research. The argument is made that the linguistic problem, if appreciated, can probably be easily rectified. An acceptance of the legitimacy of the second problem, however, is argued to imply a change of attitude.
The Gradient Projection Method Along Geodesics
Authors: Luenberger David G.
Published: November 2008

The method of steepest descent for solving unconstrained minimization problems is well understood. It is known, for instance, that when applied to a smooth objective function f, and converging to a solution point x where the corresponding Hessian matrix F(x) is positive definite, the asymptotic rate of convergence is given by the Kantorovich ratio (β − α)2/(β + α)2, where α and β are respectively the smallest and largest eigenvalues of the Hessian matrix F(x). This result is one of the major sharp results on convergence of minimization algorithms.

In this paper a corresponding result is given for the gradient projection method for solving constrained minimization problems. It is shown that the asymptotic rate of convergence of gradient projection methods is also given by a Kantorovich ratio, but with α and β being determined by the Lagrangian associated with the problem. Specifically, if L is the Hessian of the Lagrangian evaluated at the solution, α and β are the smallest and largest eigenvalues of L when restricted to the subspace tangent to the constraint surface. This result is a natural extension of the one for unconstrained problems.

Unlike the unconstrained situation where linear analysis is natural, the constrained situation is inherently nonlinear since analysis must be confined to the constraint surface. This technical difficulty would obscure the basic simplicity of the analysis if it were not for the introduction of the concept of geodesic descent which restores order to an otherwise potentially chaotic and unexciting analysis.
A Computer Comparison of Four Quadratic Programming Algorithms
Authors: Braitsch Raymond J.
Published: November 2008

This paper compares the computational performance of the quadratic programming algorithms of Dantzig, Beale, Wolfe and a modification of Wolfe's algorithm. Problems are generated and solved on the computer with iteration count serving as the principal method of comparison. The effect of certain problem parameters on rate of convergence is considered and computer time and storage requirements of the four algorithms are discussed.
An Upperbound Algorithm for the Single and Multiple Terminal Delivery Problem
Authors: Tillman Frank A. , Cain Thomas M.
Published: November 2008

An upperbound algorithm is presented for solving the multiterminal delivery problem. The method involves determining savings from joining points on routes and making possible assignments as a function of the maximum savings for joining cities on routes. The algorithm permits restrictions to be imposed on the system. If all possibilities are investigated, this approach will lead to an optimal solution using savings as the criterion to be optimized. In practice this may be very time consuming so a limited version is presented where only the most promising nodes are investigated. The methodology developed is applicable to the single terminal problem, since it is a special case of the multiterminal problem.

A computer program has been written and a set of problems were solved with the algorithm using an IBM 360/50 computer. The results of a series of single and multi-terminal problems are illustrated in the paper. As is evident from these results the time required to solve a problem increases as a function of the number of demand points and the number of terminals.
The Optimality of Connected Policies for Markovian Systems with Two Types of Service
Authors: Beja Avraham
Published: November 2008

Consider a single station service system with bounded queue capacity and two possible types of service (“fast” and “slow”), operating in discrete time. It is proved that in the search for an optimal policy one need not consider policies hat prescribe one type of service when the system is relatively empty, another type when there are more customers in the system, and the first type again if there are even more customers in the system.
Optimal Replacement Policies for a Single Loaded Sliding Standby
Authors: Henin Claude
Published: November 2008

The purpose of this paper is to define an optimal replacement policy for identical components performing different functions in a given system, when one spare part is available. It is assumed that the failure law of the component and of the spare part is known and that the mission of the system has a duration T, that the components cannot be permuted and that the breakage of a given component, i, produces a certain loss Li per unit of time it remains out of use.

The optimal policy r*(x) is first computed for the two components—one spare part case by minimizing the expected loss over that set of policies consisting of replacing, if possible, the most expensive component, when it fails and waiting until a certain time τ(x) for replacing the other component should it fail at time x. For exponential failure laws and with certain restrictions, concave laws, τ*(x) = τ* is independent of x for x ≦ r* and is equal to x for x > τ*. The n components case is then considered in which the optimal policy is defined by a sequence τi*(x)(i = 1,…, n), where τi*(x) represents the time at which the replacement of component i by the spare part will occur, should component i break at time x and no other component, whose loss is more expensive, break before τi*(x).
A Comment on a Paper of Maxwell by J. B. Sidney—A Rejoinder
Authors: Moore J. M.
Published: November 2008

The principal problem with Sidney's comments (and Maxwell's paper for that matter) is that the intermediate steps leading from the original problem formulation to the constraint (supposedly) obtained are not described.
Portfolio Performance and the Investment Horizon
Authors: Levy Haim
Published: November 2008

Following the equilibrium model which has been developed by Sharpe, Lintner and Treynor, several authors have developed one-parameter indexes as measures of performance. In this paper, it is shown that as long as the “true” horizon does not coincide with the horizon assumed in the empirical research, the one-parameter indexes contain a systematic bias, even when one assumes a perfect market.

In conducting empirical research or in evaluating the performance of the management of a portfolio, more attention should be devoted to the selection of the investment horizon, since the magnitude as well as the direction of the systematic bias is a function of this factor.
Some Manpower Planning Models Based on Levels of Educational Attainment
Authors: Balinsky Warren , Reisman Arnold
Published: November 2008

A number of manpower planning models are developed and optimized. The models are dynamic feed forward models and treat people as the only flow variable. The flow originates by considering a particular population of eligible persons and then traces them through the educational and economic sectors of the model. The flow is driven by selecting the optimal number of entrants into the educational (training) program each period. The objective function is composed of educational and manpower “inventory” costs. The manpower costs are for having an undersupply or oversupply of trained manpower and can be related to unemployment, educational or other societal costs.
Decision Modeling in Case Selection for Medical Utilization Review
Authors: McClain John O.
Published: November 2008

A situation is described in which large amounts of physician time are being spent reviewing patient records. In order to promote efficient use of their time, careful selection of the cases they review is called for. A methodology is developed to elicit criteria from physicians for the use of nonphysicians in case selection. The methodology, called the direct approach to approximate decision models, involves the use of interviews and questionnaires asking the physician directly about the criteria he uses, rather than inferring his criteria by indirect means. He is asked to interpret these criteria in a way that will allow a nonphysician to use them for case selection so that the resulting model is an approximation to the physician's decision process.
Comments on “Economic Ordering Frequency for Two Items Jointly Replenished” by Frank T. Shu
Authors: Kalro Amarlal H.
Published: November 2008

In his paper (Management Science, Vol. 17, No. 6, pp. B-406–B-410) Shu describes a method for determining the replenishment frequencies of items jointly replenished. Essentially, the procedure develops “skipping rules” for an item, this being replenished every kth time that the others are replenished. A better procedure is to rank the items in decreasing order of demand/set-up cost ratio, then select the lowest ratio item as the skipped item.
Axiomatic Characterization of the Time-Weighted Rate of Return
Authors: Gray Kenneth B. , Dewar Robert B. K.
Published: November 2008

In a recently published banking industry study [Fisher, Lawrence. 1968. Measuring rates of return. Chapter 2 in James H. Lorie et al., Measuring the Investment Performance of Pension Funds for the Purpose of Inter-Fund Comparison, Bank Administration Institute, Park Ridge, Illinois.], it was pointed out that the venerable internal rate of return is inappropriate for measuring the performance of pension fund managers. It is suggested that a measure of management performance should depend solely on the way in which the manager proportions the fund's resources and not on fund contributions and withdrawals. Unfortunately, the internal rate depends on this contribution and withdrawal pattern.

The banking industry study proposed a new measure, the time-weighted rate of return, which is not dependent on the contribution and withdrawal pattern. The study, however, was incomplete in that it did not state or show that the time-weighted rate is the only well-behaved rate of return that is not influenced by contributions or withdrawals.

The latter result is developed in this paper.
Cargo Vehicle Productivity
Authors: McQuie Robert
Published: November 2008

This paper develops a model of the operation of any size or type of cargo vehicle. Twenty-eight operating and design characteristics are represented permitting their impact on steady state productivity to be estimated. This tool enables one to make a quick but detailed comparison of competing vehicles by manual means. It reduces the need of employing a computer, and should be of use to management concerned with new methods of cargo movement and with vehicle procurement.
Conditional Monte Carlo: A Simulation Technique for Stochastic Network Analysis
Authors: Burt John M. , Garman Mark B.
Published: November 2008

This paper is concerned with a simulation procedure for estimating the distribution functions of the time to complete stochastic networks. The procedure, called conditional Monte Carlo, is shown to be substantially more efficient (in terms of the computational effort required) than traditional simulation methods. The efficacy of conditional Monte Carlo and its use in conjunction with other Monte Carlo methods is illustrated for the Wheatstone bridge network. The applicability of the procedure to larger networks, as well as other stochastic systems, is discussed, and a general method is given for its implementation.
On the Management of Inquiry
Authors: Betz Frederick
Published: November 2008

The problem of managing inquiry is a generalization of the more limited problem of managing research and development projects. As management science attends to the complex problem of educational systems or national science systems, then an awareness is worthwhile of other literatures relevant to the problem. This papersuggests that the manager must determine these major relationships:

(a) The institution construct in which inquiry will take place—the literature on universities is reviewed as a source of models for establishing institutional relationships. This involves relating institutionalized activities to external value systems.

(b) The internal organizational structure and norms of the inquiry groups themselves—the literature on professionalism is reviewed as a source of models for establishing internal norms and relationships. This involves relating individual member's value systems to the legitimate group norms.

(c) The dominating methodology and epistemology employed by the inquirers—relevant literature in philosophy of science (especially social science) is reviewed as a source of models for analyzing different techniques and decision-modes of inquirers. This involves relating the values requisite for efficiency in a given inquiring mode to the values inherent in the purpose of the inquiry.
A Linear Risk Constraint in Capital Budgeting
Authors: Whitmore G. A. , Darkazanli S.
Published: November 2008

Two methods for constructing linear restrictions to approximate risk constraints in capital budgeting are described. Their practical implications are also discussed.
A Taylor's Theorem—Central Limit Theorem Approximation: Its Use in Obtaining the Probability Distribution of Long-Range Profit
Authors: Smith Dennis E.
Published: November 2008

Although the functional relationship between long-range profit (LRP) and its various components is usually well defined, the difficulty of determining the probability distribution of LRP prevents an immediate answer to a question such as “What are the chances that the LRP associated with decision D will exceed X dollars?” In a situation such as this, the first thought is to use Monte Carlo (i.e., random sampling) in order to provide an approximation to the distribution of LRP. An alternative approach, the use of error propagation formulas based on a Taylor series expansion coupled with a Central Limit Theorem approximation, is discussed.
A Graph Theory Approach to Comparing Consumer Information Processing Models
Authors: Bettman James R.
Published: November 2008

This study argues the need for, and then develops, some graph theoretic approaches for comparing complex information processing models of individual decisions. Two similarity coefficients are proposed, and a coefficient based on path and reachability structure is shown to be preferable. Some properties of this coefficient are outlined, as well as a computational method. The coefficient is applied to actual information processing models of consumer choice and stock selection. The results of this application are interpreted for insights into process structure, stability of decision processes over time, and possibilities of developing process-oriented typologies. Finally, problems and prospects for this type of approach are assessed.
A Multiple-Product Sales Force Allocation Model
Authors: Montgomery David B. , Silk Alvin J. , Zaragoza Carlos E.
Published: November 2008

When several products are marketed by the same sales force, it frequently becomes impossible or impractical for salesmen to promote all items in the product line extensively in each and every time period. Management's problem is to decide how the available selling effort should be allocated across products and over time. The opportunity costs associated with using limited selling resources to promote certain products but not others must be evaluated. This paper describes a decision calculus-type modeling system for dealing with this question.

The problem is analyzed by a two-step procedure. First, a response function is defined which relates selling effort to sales and profit results in a manner which represents some behavioral phenomena considered to be important. An interactive conversational program elicits judgmental data from managers which are used to parameterize the response model. A separate response function is specified for each product in the firm's line by this method. The set of response functions so obtained becomes the input for the second component of the system, an allocation heuristic. An incremental search procedure is employed to find an allocation of the sales force's time to the various products and over several time periods which is “best” in terms of total contribution to company profits. The model is presented in the context of an ethical drug manufacturer's multiple-product sales force allocation problem. Results of an application are summarized and implementation considerations noted. A comparison of the model-based allocation with that determined previously by management indicated that the former plan would offer a substantial improvement in profits.
Behavioral Measurement for Marketing Models: Estimating the Effects of Advertising Repetition for Media Planning
Authors: Ray Michael L. , Sawyer Alan G.
Published: November 2008

As management science models are developed in marketing, they make demands for more sophisticated inputs from the behavioral sciences. This is particularly true in the area of advertising media models. A continuing behavioral research program to develop estimates of repetition response functions for media models is reviewed. The program finds functions which differ importantly in level, slope and shape depending on the measure of response, market segment, product type, brand, advertising format, advertising illustration, advertisement color, media scheduling, ad appeal, and competitive situation. It is argued that such response function variations, found in both laboratory and field research, should be represented in media models. To illustrate this point, the results of a study of repetitive effects of one-sided (supportive) and two-sided (refutational) competitive advertisements are applied to runs of the MEDIAC planning system. Inclusion of the behavioral data produces favorable changes in MEDIAC output in terms of schedules and schedule results. The potential of further interaction between behavioral data and management science models is discussed.
A Quasi-Game Theory Approach to Pricing
Authors: Rao Ambar G. , Shakun Melvin F.
Published: November 2008

A quasi-game theory approach to market-entry pricing is taken for a product class where price is the only indicator of quality. The model is based on certain hypotheses regarding individual customer behavior, which is then aggregated to find demand for a product given its price. Using game theoretic thinking and assumptions about brand behavior, optimal pricing policies are derived.
On the Scope of Gaming
Authors: Shubik Martin
Published: November 2008

Gaining and simulation mean different things to different people. Currently there exist separate schools of individuals working on interrelated but basically different areas. Each has its own special goals and terminology. Yet there is a sufficient overlap among them that it is important to clarify the common and different interests and terminology.

The general topic of gaming is ripe for an examination to see to what extent there exists a basic methodology and theory of gaming. This paper addresses itself, in part, to this problem. Different types of games and different purposes are discussed. It is stressed that there is not one validation problem but many validation and specification problems which must be addressed if professional standards are to be attained.
Inventory Control with Probabilistic Demand and Periodic Withdrawals
Authors: Hausman Warren H. , Thomas L. Joseph
Published: November 2008

Many manufacturing firms produce component parts both for assembly into new products and to meet orders for spare parts. An inventory model for this situation would involve two types of demands: probabilistic demand as spares and deterministic (or scheduled) withdrawals as components for assembly. Relevant costs would include a setup cost for replenishment orders, inventory carrying costs, and backorder costs. An analytical model approximating these characteristics is formulated. An optimal dynamic program for the periodic review case is briefly discussed; this policy is extremely costly to implement, however. Two feasible operating policies are considered in the paper: a continuous review (Q, r)-type policy and a simple periodic review scheduling heuristic. The paper concludes with sample economic comparisons of the cost of the (Q, r)-type policy and the heuristic policy for a set of numerical examples.