bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Point Optimal Tests for Testing the Order of Differencing in ARIMA Models
Authors: Saikkonen Pentti , Luukkonen Ritva
Published: March 2009

Deciding the order of differencing is an important part in the specification of an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) mode. In most, though not all, cases this means deciding whether to use the original observations or their first differences. Common test procedures used in this context are some variants of autoregressive unit root tests. In these tests, one tests the null hypothesis that the order of differencing is one against the alternative that it is zero. The null hypothesis thus states that the original series is nonstationary and integrated of order one, whereas the alternative assumes that it is stationary. In this paper the situation is reversed so that our null hypothesis states that the original series is stationary, whereas the alternative states that it is integrated of order one. In our approach the use of a differenced series thus means overdifferencing and, consequently, a model with a moving average unit root. Testing for this moving average unit root is the topic of this paper. As discussed by Saikkonen and Luukkonen [26] and Tanaka [31], test procedures obtained for this null hypothesis can also be used to test the null hypothesis that a multivariate time series is cointegrated with a given theoretical cointegrating vector. Since the null hypothesis of cointegration is often of interest and cannot be naturally tested by autoregressive unit root tests, this connection provides an important motivation for the test procedures of this paper.
Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Estimator for a Stochastic Frontier Function Model with a Singular Information Matrix
Authors: Lee Lung-Fei
Published: March 2009

This paper investigates the asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator in a stochastic frontier function when the firms are all technically efficient. For such a situation the true parameter vector is on the boundary of the parameter space, and the scores are linearly dependent. The asymptotic distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator is shown to be a mixture of certain truncated distributions. The maximum likelihood estimates for different parameters may have different rates of stochastic convergence. The model can be reparameterized into one with a regular likelihood function. The likelihood ratio test statistic has the usual mixture of chi-square distributions as in the regular case.
A Consistent Model Specification Test for Nonparametric Estimation of Regression Function Models
Authors: Gozalo Pedro L.
Published: March 2009

This paper proposes a general framework for specification testing of the regression function in a nonparametric smoothing estimation context. The same analysis can be applied to cases as varied as testing for omission of variables, testing certain nonlinear restrictions in the regressors, and testing the correct specification of some parametric or semiparametric model of interest, for example, testing a certain type of nonlinearity of the regression function. Furthermore, the test can be applied to i.i.d. and time-series data, and some or all of the regressors are allowed to be discrete. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to assess the performance of the test in small and medium samples.
A Consistent Test of Stationary-Ergodicity
Authors: Domowitz Ian , El-Gamal Mahmoud A.
Published: March 2009

A formal statistical test of stationary-ergodicity is developed for known Markovian processes on ℝd This makes it applicable to testing models and algorithms, as well as estimated time series processes ignoring the estimation error. The analysis is conducted by examining the asymptotic properties of the Markov operator on density space generated by the transition in the state space. The test is developed under the null of stationary-ergodicity, and it is shown to be consistent against the alternative of nonstationary-ergodicity. The test can be easily performed using any of a number of standard statistical and mathematical computer packages.
Specification Testing with Locally Misspecified Alternatives
Authors: Bera Anil K. , Yoon Mann J.
Published: March 2009

It is well known that most of the standard specification tests are not robust when the alternative is misspecified. Using the asymptotic distributions of standard Lagrange multiplier (LM) test under local misspecification, we suggest a robust specification test. This test essentially adjusts the mean and covariance matrix of the usual LM statistic. We show that for local misspecification the adjusted test is asymptotically equivalent to Neyman's C(α) test, and therefore, shares the optimality properties of the C(α) test. The main advantage of the new test is that, compared to the C(α) test, it is much simpler to compute. Our procedure does require full specification of the model and there might be some loss of asymptotic power relative to the unadjusted test if the model is indeed correctly specified.
Series Estimation of Regression Functionals
Authors: Newey Whitney K.
Published: March 2009

Two-step estimators, where the first step is the predicted value from a nonparametric regression, are useful in many contexts. Examples include a non-parametric residual variance, probit with nonparametric generated regressors, efficient GMM estimation with randomly missing data, heteroskedasticity corrected least squares, semiparametric regression, and efficient nonlinear instrumental variables estimators. The purpose of this paper is the development ofconsistency and asymptotic normality results when the first step is a series estimator. The paper presents the form of a correction term for the first step on the second-step asymptotic variance and gives a consistent variance estimator. Data-dependent numbers of terms are allowed for, and the regressor distribution can be discrete, continuous, or a mixture of the two. Results for several new estimators are given.
Asymptotic Theory for the Garch(1,1) Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimator
Authors: Lee Sang-Won , Hansen Bruce E.
Published: March 2009

This paper investigates the sampling behavior of the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the Gaussian GARCH(1,1) model. The rescaled variable (the ratio of the disturbance to the conditional standard deviation) is not required to be Gaussian nor independent over time, in contrast to the current literature. The GARCH process may be integrated (α + β = 1), or even mildly explosive (α + β > 1). A bounded conditional fourth moment of the rescaled variable is sufficient for the results. Consistent estimation and asymptotic normality are demonstrated, as well as consistent estimation of the asymptotic covariance matrix.
Symmetry, Regression Design, and Sampling Distributions
Authors: Chesher Andrew , Peters Simon
Published: March 2009

When values of regressors are symmetrically disposed, manyM-estimators in a wide class of models have a reflection property, namely, that as the signs of the coefficients on regressors are reversed, their estimators' sampling distribution is reflected about the origin. When the coefficients are zero, sign reversal can have no effect. So in this case, the sampling distribution of regression coefficient estimators is symmetric about zero, the estimators are median unbiased and, when moments exist, the estimators are exactly uncorrelated with estimators of other parameters. The result is unusual in that it does not require response variates to have symmetric conditional distributions. It demonstrates the potential importance of covariate design in determining the distributions of estimators, and it is useful in designing and interpreting Monte Carlo experiments. The result is illustrated by a Monte Carlo experiment in which maximum likelihood and symmetrically censored least-squares estimators are calculated for small samples from a censored normal linear regression, Tobit, model.
Momentary Lapses: Moment Expansions and the Robustness of Minimum Distance Estimation
Authors: Koenker Roger , Machado José A.F. , Skeels Christopher L. , Welsh Alan H.
Published: March 2009

This paper explores the robustness of minimum distance (GMM) estimators focusing particularly on the effect of intermediate covariance matrix estimation on final estimator performance. Asymptotic expansions to orderOp(n−3/2) are employed to constructO(n−2) expansions for the variance of estimators constructed from preliminary least-squares and generalM-estimators. In the former case, there is a rather curious robustifying effect due to estimation of the Eicker-White covariance matrix for error distributions with sufficiently large kurtosis.
Estimating Error Component Models With General MA(q) Disturbances
Authors: Baltagi Badi H. , Li Qi
Published: March 2009

This paper provides a simple estimation method for an error component regression model with general MA(q) remainder disturbances. The estimation method utilizes the transformation derived by Baltagi and Li [3] for an error component model with autoregressive remainder disturbances, and a standard orthogonalizing algorithm for the general MA(q) model. This estimation method is computationally simple utilizing only least-squares regressions. This is important for panel data regressions where brute force GLS is in many cases not feasible.This estimation method performs well relative to true GLS in Monte-Carlo experiments.
On the Limits of Glm for Specification Testing: A Comment on Gurmu and Trivedi
Authors: Wooldridge Jeffrey M.
Published: March 2009

In this comment on Gurmu and Trivedi's “Variable Augmentation Specification Tests in the Linear Exponential Family,” I show how their generalized linear model (GLM) approach relates to other work in econometrics on specification testing in the linear exponential family. In addition to shedding light on the relationship between the statistics and econometrics literatures on testing in quasi-likelihood frameworks, this comparison reveals some important limitations of GLM as a general framework for devising specification tests.
Bayesian Forecasting of Economic Time Series
Authors: Hill Bruce M.
Published: March 2009

A model is suggested to forecast economic time series. This model incorporates some innovative ideas of Harrison and Stevens [20] for building into the forecasting process important external shocks to the systems. Thus the occurrence of possibly significant real-world events may cause a fundamental change in the time series in question. The Jeffreys-Savage (JS) Bayesian theory of hypothesis testing is used to test the hypothesis that a particular event has been such as to free the series from its immediate past behavior. When the event frees the series in this way, then we model the sequence of observations following such an event (until the next such event) as an exchangeable sequence. In the simplest case of 0–1 valued data, such as in recording the ups and downs of the value of a particular commodity or stock, our alternative hypothesis is a Pólya process, and the null hypothesis is a simple random walk (unit roots model) withp= .50. Any exchangeable sequence is strictly stationary, and the observations in the Polya process are positively correlated, which can give rise to “explosive” behavior of the series at isolated time points. We then use the JS theory to predict future observations by taking a weighted average of the optimal predictions for each model, with weights given by the posterior probabilities of the hypotheses. Results of simulation studies are presented which compare the predictive performance of the fully Bayesian method based upon the JS theory with those based upon the “p-value” or pre-test method. The de Finetti method for scoring predictions is used to assess their empirical performance. A theoretical methodology, which extends the “evaluation game” of Hill [28,37], is developed for comparing predictors.
Residual-Based Tests for the Null of Stationarity with Applications to U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series
Authors: Choi In
Published: March 2009

This paper proposes residual-based tests for the null of level- and trend-stationarity, which are analogs of the LM test for an MA unit root. Asymptotic distributions of the tests are nonstandard, but they are expressed in a unified manner by expressing stochastic integrals. In addition, the tests are shown to be consistent. By expressing the distributions expressed as a function of a chi-square variable with one degree of freedom, the exact limiting probability density and cumulative distribution functions are obtained, and the exact limiting cumulative distribution functions are tabulated. Finite sample performance of the proposed tests is studied by simulation. The tests display stable size when the lag truncation number for the long-run variance estimation is chosen appropriately. But the power of the tests is generally not high at selected sample sizes. The test for the null of trend-stationarity is applied to the U.S. macroeconomic time series along with the Phillips-Perron Z(⋯) test. For some monthly and annual series, the two tests provide consistent inferential results. But for most series, the two contradictory nulls of trend-stationarity and a unit root cannot be rejected at the conventional significance levels.
Testing for Second-Order Stochastic Dominance of Two Distributions
Authors: Kaur Amarjot , Prakasa Rao B.L.S. , Singh Harshinder
Published: March 2009

A distribution function F is said to stochastically dominate another distribution function G in the second-order sense if , for all x. Second-order stochastic dominance plays an important role in economics, finance, and accounting. Here a statistical test has been constructed to test , for some x ∈ [a, b], against the hypothesis , for all x ∈ [a, b], where a and b are any two real numbers. The test has been shown to be consistent and has an upper bound α on the asymptotic size. The test is expected to have usefulness for comparison of random prospects for risk averters.
On the Asymptotic Optimality of Alternative Minimum-Distance Estimators in Linear Latent-Variable Models
Authors: Satorra Albert , Neudecker Heinz
Published: March 2009

In the context of linear latent-variable models, and a general type of distribution of the data, the asymptotic optimality of a subvector of minimum-distance estimators whose weight matrix uses only second-order moments is investigated. The asymptotic optimality extends to the whole vector of parameter estimators, if additional restrictions on the third-order moments of the variables are imposed. Results related to the optimality of normal (pseudo) maximum likelihood methods are also encompassed. The results derived concern a wide class of latent-variable models and estimation methods used routinely in software for the analysis of latent-variable models such as LISREL, EQS, and CALIS. The general results are specialized to the context of multivariate regression and simultaneous equations with errors in variables.
A Note on Autoregressive Modeling
Authors: Poskitt D.S.
Published: March 2009

This paper addresses the problem of estimating vector autoregressive models. An approach to handling nonstationary (integrated) time series is briefly discussed, but the main emphasis is upon the estimation of autoregressive approximations to stationary processes. Three alternative estimators are considered–the Yule-Walker, least-squares, and Burg-type estimates–and a complete analysis of their asymptotic properties in the stationary case is given. The results obtained, when placed together with those found elsewhere in the literature, lead to the direct recommendation that the less familiar Burg-type estimator should be used in practice when modeling stationary series. This is particularly so when the underlying objective of the analysis is to investigate the interrelationships between variables of interest via impulse response functions and dynamic multipliers.
Errors in Variables and Cointegration
Authors: Solo Victor
Published: March 2009

In this article it is shown how the cointegration or joint trending behavior of economic time series helps to alleviate the errors in variables problem.
Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH
Authors: Engle Robert F. , Kroner Kenneth F.
Published: March 2009

This paper presents theoretical results on the formulation and estimation of multivariate generalized ARCH models within simultaneous equations systems. A new parameterization of the multivariate ARCH process is proposed, and equivalence relations are discussed for the various ARCH parameterizations. Constraints sufficient to guarantee the positive definiteness of the conditional covariance matrices are developed, and necessary and sufficient conditions for covariance stationarity are presented. Identification and maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters in the simultaneous equations context are also covered.
Solutions of multivariate Rational Expectations Models
Authors: Broze Laurence , Gouriéroux Christian , Szafarz Ariane
Published: March 2009

The aim of this paper is the study of the path solutions of a multivariate rational expectations model. We describe several procedures for solving such dynamic systems based on either the adjoint operator method or the Smith form. As a by-product, we derive the dimension of the set of solutions in terms of martingale differences and the dimension of the set of linear stationary solutions when we restrict ourselves to the linear case. These dimensions are functions of the number of equations in the system, of the maximum lead, and of the orders of some eigenvalues of the characteristic equation associated with the system.
Nonparametric Estimation and Identification of Nonlinear ARCH Time Series Strong Convergence and Asymptotic Normality: Strong Convergence and Asymptotic Normality
Authors: Masry Elias , Tjøstheim Dag
Published: March 2009

We consider the estimation and identification of the functional structures of nonlinear econometric systems of the ARCH type. We employ nonparametric kernel estimates for the nonlinear functions characterizing the systems, and we establish strong consistency along with sharp rates of convergence under mild regularity conditions. We also prove the asymptotic normality of the estimates.
Causality in the Long Run
Authors: Clive W.J. , Lin Jin-Lung
Published: March 2009

The definition of causation, discussed in Granger (1980) and elsewhere, has been widely applied in economics and in other disciplines. For this definition, a seriesytis said to causext+lif it contains information about the forecastability forxt+lcontained nowhere else in some large information set, which includesxt−j,j≥ 0. However, it would be convenient to think of causality being different in extent or direction at seasonal or low frequencies, say, than at other frequencies. The fact that a stationary series is effectively the (uncountably infinite) sum of uncorrelated components, each of which is associated with a single frequency, or a narrow frequency band, introduces the possibility that the full causal relationship can be decomposed by frequency. This is known as the Wiener decomposition or the spectral decomposition of the series, as discussed by Hannan (1970). For any seriesgenerated by, wherext, andare both stationary, with finite variances anda(B) is a backward filter

withBthe backward operator, there is a simple, well-known relationship between the spectral decompositions of the two series.
Comment on “The Effect of Model Selection on Confidence Regions and Prediction Regions” by P. Kabaila
Authors: Pötscher B.M.
Published: March 2009

In this comment, I first want to offer a few general remarks on the problems caused by nonuniformity in the convergence of coverage probabilities as pointed out in Kabaila's (1995) very stimulating paper. Second, I also argue that within the context of set estimation after model selection one typically will be more interested in conditional coverage probabilities than in unconditional ones. Concentrating on the last example of Section 2 in Kabaila, I then illustrate how a confidence region can be constructed such that the conditional coverage probabilities do not suffer from the nonuniformity problem discussed in Kabaila. As a by-product, I show that the confidence region considered in this example in Kabaila is not a very natural one and that it has undesirable conditional coverage properties, which I find actually more troublesome than the lack of uniformity in the unconditional coverage probability pointed out by Kabaila.
A Nonparametric Conditional Moment Test for Structural Stability
Authors: Hidalgo Javier
Published: March 2009

This paper considers a nonparametric conditional moment test of stability of an econometric model against the alternative of instability. The alternative hypothesis allows for more than one structural change, although in this case it has to be fairly smooth. This complements existing results for stability in a parametric setting. Also, it is shown that the test is always consistent, unlike the available “parametric” tests, which normally rely on the assumption of a correct specification of the model, at least under the null hypothesis of no structural instability. Moreover, we show that the test has local power comparable to the parametric ones; that is, its asymptotic efficiency is greater than zero. A Monte Carlo experiment about the performance of our test is described.
Problems with the Asymptotic Theory of Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Integrated and Cointegrated Systems
Authors: Saikkonen Pentti
Published: March 2009

Problems with the asymptotic theory of nonlinear maximum likelihood estimation in integrated and cointegrated systems are discussed in this paper. One problem is that standard proofs of consistency generally do not apply; another one is that, even if the consistency has been established, it can be difficult to deduce the limiting distribution of a maximum likelihood estimator from a conventional Taylor series expansion of the score vector. It is argued in this paper that the latter difficulty can generally be resolved if, in addition to consistency, an appropriate result of the order of consistency of the long-run parameter estimator of the model is available and the standardized sample information matrix satisfies a suitable extension of previous stochastic equicontinuity conditions. To make this idea applicable in particular cases, extensions of the author's recent stochastic equicontinuity results, relevant for many integrated and cointegrated systems with nonlinearities in parameters, are provided. As an illustration, a simple regression model with integrated and stationary regressors and nonlinearities in parameters is considered. In this model, the consistency and order of consistency of the long-run parameter estimator are obtained by employing extensions of well-known sufficient conditions for consistency. These conditions are applicable quite generally, and their verification in the special case of this paper suggests how to proceed in more complex models.
Robust Nonstationary Regression
Authors: Phillips Peter C.B.
Published: March 2009

This paper provides a robust statistical approach to nonstationary time series regression and inference. Fully modified extensions of traditional robust statistical procedures are developed that allow for endogeneities in the nonstationary regressors and serial dependence in the shocks that drive the regressors and the errors that appear in the equation being estimated. The suggested estimators involve semiparametric corrections to accommodate these possibilities, and they belong to the same family as the fully modified least-squares (FM-OLS) estimator of Phillips and Hansen (1990, Review of Economic Studies 57,99–125). Specific attention is given to fully modified least absolute deviation (FM-LAD) estimation and fully modified M (FM-M) estimation. The criterion function for LAD and some M-estimators is not always smooth, and this paper develops generalized function methods to cope with this difficulty in the asymptotics. The results given here include a strong law of large numbers and some weak convergence theory for partial sums of generalized functions of random variables. The limit distribution theory for FM-LAD and FM-M estimators that is developed includes the case of finite variance errors and the case of heavytailed (infinite variance) errors. Some simulations and a brief empirical illustration are reported.
Testing for Cointegration in a System of Equations
Authors: Choi In , Ahn Byung Chul
Published: March 2009

This paper introduces various consistent tests for the null of cointegration against the alternative of noncointegration that can be applied to a system of equations as well as to a single equation. The tests are analogs of Choi and Ahn's (1993, Testing the Null of Stationarity for Multiple Time Series, working paper, The Ohio State University) multivariate tests for the null of stationarity and use Park's (1992, Econometrica 60, 119–143) canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) residuals to make the tests free of nuisance parameters in the limit. The asymptotic distributions of the tests are complex but expressed in unified manner by using standard vector Brownian motion. These distributions are tabulated by simulation for some practical cases. Furthermore, the rates of divergence of the tests are reported. Because there are methods for estimating cointegrating matrices other than CCR, it is illustrated for a model without time trends that the tests we introduce work exactly the same way in the limit when Phillips and Hansen's (1990, Review of Economic Studies 57, 99–125) fully modified ordinary least-squares (OLS) procedure is used. Also, is shown that difficulties arise when OLS residuals are used to formulate the tests. Small-scale simulation results are reported to examine the finite sample performance of the tests. The tests are shown to work reasonably wellin finite samples. In particular, it is illustrated that using the multivariate tests introduced in this paper can be a better testing strategy in terms of the finite sample size and power than applying univariate tests several times to each equation in a system of equations.
Efficient IV Estimation in Nonstationary Regression
Authors: Kitamura Yuichi , Phillips Peter C.B.
Published: March 2009

A limit theory for instrumental variables (IV) estimation that allows for possibly nonstationary processes was developed in Kitamura and Phillips (1992, Fully Modified IV, GIVE, and GMM Estimation with Possibly Non-stationary Regressors and Instruments, mimeo, Yale University). This theory covers a case that is important for practitioners, where the nonstationarity of the regressors may not be of full rank, and shows that the fully modified (FM) regression procedure of Phillips and Hansen (1990) is still applicable. FM. versions of the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator and the generalized instrumental variables estimator (GIVE) were also developed, and these estimators (FM-GMM and FM-GIVE) were designed specifically to take advantage of potential stationarity in the regressors (or unknown linear combinations of them). These estimators were shown to deliver efficiency gains over FM-IV in the estimation of the stationary components of a model.

This paper provides an overview of the FM-IV, FM-GMM, and FM-GIVE procedures and investigates the small sample properties of these estimation procedures by simulations. We compare the following five estimation methods: ordinary least squares, crude (conventional) IV, FM-IV, FM-GMM, and FM-GIVE. Our findings are as follows, (i) In terms of overall performance in both stationary and nonstationary cases, FM-IV is more concentrated and better centered than OLS and crude IV, though it has a higher root mean square error than crude IV due to occasional outliers, (ii) Among FM-IV, FM-GMM, and FM-GIVE, (a) when applied to the stationary coefficients, FM-GIVE generally outperforms FM-IV and FM-GMM by a wide margin, whereas the difference between the latter two is quite small when the AR roots of the stationary processes are rather large; and (b) when applied to the nonstationary coefficients, the three estimators are numerically very close. The performance of the FM-GIVE estimator is generally very encouraging.
Asymptotic Results for Generalized Wald Tests
Authors: Andrews Donald W. K.
Published: March 2009

This paper presents conditions under which a quadratic form based on a g-inverted weighting matrix converges to a chi-square distribution as the sample size goes to infinity. Subject to fairly weak underlying conditions, a necessary and sufficient condition is given for this result. The result is of interest because it is needed to establish asymptotic significance levels and local power properties of generalized Wald tests (i.e., Wald tests with singular limiting covariance matrices). Included in this class of tests are Hausman specification tests and various goodness-of-fit tests, among others. The necessary and sufficient condition is relevant to procedures currently in the econometrics literature because it illustrates that some results stated in the literature only hold under more restrictive assumptions than those given.
Optional elements and variant structures in the productions of bei2 ‘to give’ dative constructions in Cantonese-speaking adults and three-year-old children
Authors: WONG ANITA M.-Y. , CHOW DORCAS C.-C. , MCBRIDE-CHENG CATHERINE , STOKES STEPHANIE F.
Published: March 2009

To express object transfer, Cantonese-speakers use a ‘ditransitive’ ([V–R–T] or [V–T–R] where V=Verb, T=Theme, R=Recipient), or a more complex prepositional/serial-verb (P/SV) construction. Clausal elements in Cantonese datives can be optional (resulting in ‘full’ versus ‘non-full’ forms) or appear in variant orders (full non-canonical and full canonical). We report on usage of dative constructions with the word bei2 ‘to give’ in 86 parents and 53 three-year-old children during conversations. The parents used more P/SV than ditransitive bei2-datives, and vice versa for the children. Both groups showed a similar usage pattern of optional elements and variant structures in their ditransitive and P/SV bei2-datives. The roles of multiple construction types, optional elements and variant structures in children's learning of bei2-dative constructions are described.
The Role of Hu Hanmin in the “First United Front”: 1922–27
Authors: Barrett David P.
Published: March 2009

For both the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and the Guomindang (GMD), the experience of their political association from 1922 to 1927 had a profound effect on the later course of their development. This period has come to be known as the First United Front, though in fact this term cannot be used without initial reservation, since only the CCP spoke of a united front between it and the GMD. For the latter party, with its well-established revolutionary history, the term “admission of the communists” (rong gong) was invariably used to denote the opening up of GMD membership to members of a smaller and definitely junior political movement. The adoption of the communist designation in later years by many students of the period reflects in part the attention given by western scholarship to the development of the CCP during the critical years of the 1920s. However, even if the term “united front” is retained for convenience as a general rubric for the 1922–27 period, it is important that the Guomindang be subjected to careful scrutiny in its own right, so that the GMD-CCP relationship may be understood more fully. This is to be stressed, since the categories often applied to the GMD, such as “left” and “right,” while of value in some instances, on the whole blur or distort the wide range of opinion within that party on the question of communist involvement in it. Until the purge of the CCP took place in 1927, GMD attitudes towards the communists were characterized by much fluidity.
The Ohio-Hubei Agreement: Clues to Chinese Negotiating Practices
Authors: Shroeder Paul E.
Published: March 2009

The commercial, cultural and educational agreement between the State of Ohio and Hubei province has become a major element in Hubei's efforts to modernize its industrial and agricultural sectors. At the same time, the agreement also provides evidence of increasing provincial autonomy in China's economic development. This latter fact is seen in the negotiating practices adopted by provincial officials before and after the agreement was reached.
Deng Xiaoping: The Years in France
Authors: Wang Nora
Published: March 2009

Deng Xiaoping has been the subject of several biographies, most of which contain little information about the leader's “French” period. Yet the five years he spent in France cannot be passed over in silence, for it was there and during that time that he first became active politically and joined the Chinese Communist Party. These facts are not in dispute, but the episode as a whole has been illuminated only briefly and in contradictory ways. According to Boorman, for example, “Deng, after attending classes in a special preparatory school in Chengdu […] went to Shanghai, and thence to Europe early in 1920. […] There is no record of Deng's having attended classes at any school or university in France; nor is it clear what type of work he did there.” As far as Boorman is concerned, Deng's stay in France was marked only by his joining the local branch of the CCP and by his (purely technical) activities as a roneographer for Chiguang. On the basis of Soviet sources and of comments made by Deng himself to Edgar Snow, D. W. Klein and A. B. Clark supply further details. Deng Xiaoping, they tell us, was involved in the Chinese worker-student movement in Lyon in 1921; he joined the Chinese Communist Youth in 1922 and the Party in 1924. Some time after that he left France for Moscow: in 1926, according to Klein and Clark, while Boorman puts his departure in the previous year. The Chinese texts available until recently are scarcely more helpful. A famous biographical note put out by the Red Guards informed us, for example, that Deng joined the party in 1925! According to this document
The Revival of the “Hundred Flowers” Campaign: 1961
Authors: Doolin Dennis
Published: March 2009

For the past year (especially since last March), the Chinese Communist leadership has attempted to revive the “Hundred Flowers” campaign which, Party statements notwithstanding, ended in June of 1957. Yet this revival, and the “blooming and contending” which has issued from it, is basically different from the fierce, unabashed criticism heard briefly four years ago. In 1961, the Party is seeking what it had expected in 1957: academic contention and the gratitude of non-Party intellectuals for a small, measured relaxation—not political criticism. Party leaders have long been aware of the need to secure the co-operation of China's disenchanted intellectuals if industrialisation is to go forward at a rapid pace. However, current overtures are more studied and conservative than was the case in 1957 and, as such, reflect a more realistic Party assessment of its popular support. The differences between the 1957 “Hundred Flowers” and the revival are further shown by: 1. Party emphasis on ground-rules for the present campaign; 2. The strict separation of academic discussion from political discussion and ideological contention; 3. The response of the intellectuals.
Lao She: The Humourist in his Humour
Authors: Birch Cyril
Published: March 2009

Appended to this article are two excerpts from Lao She's writings. The first comprises most of a chapter from his first novel; the second is a brief sequence from one of his latest plays. Each is concerned to establish a character, a man who has found his niche in society. Each of these men is quite peripheral to the piece in which he appears, each is a humble creature anxious only to do right by his fellows. On Chao Number Four are lavished all the colourful touches which leap from the brush of a young writer glorying in invention; Wang Jen-te is sketched with the master's economy of line. But the greater contrast appears in the resolution of the two men's respective fates: Chao, pressed down by his own ingenuousness and the cupidity of others into the trough of the “old society” as a beast of burden; Wang Jen-te, proud recipient of a new dignity as chef de cuisine to a People's Commune!
The Organisation of Rural Trade in China since 1958
Authors: Donnithorne Audrey
Published: March 2009

The purpose of this article is to describe the developments in rural trade following on the formation of the rural people's communes in 1958, but first it is necessary to say something about the events leading up to the situation in the summer of that year. This topic has been treated by the author at greater length elsewhere. A brief summary of certain points must, however, be made in order to sketch the background of the present subject.
M. N. Roy and the Fifth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party
Authors: North Robert C.
Published: March 2009

M. N. Roy was undoubtedly the most colourful of all non-Russian Communists in the era of Lenin and Stalin. A Hindu Brahmin by birth, an ardent Indian nationalist and revolutionary in his youth, and a convert to Marxism only after the Bolshevik revolution hi Russia, he rose rapidly within the Comintern hierarchy to become the most prominent Asian exponent and theoretician of Communism for Asia. During the twenties his concepts of revolution for the colonies and so-called semi-colonies of the world were incorporated into many of the most important decisions of the Communist International, and it is no exaggeration to state that he ranks with Lenin and Mao Tse-tung in the development of fundamental Communist theory for the underdeveloped, as contrasted with the industrialised, areas of the globe.
A New China Policy: Difficulties and Possibilities
Authors: Lindsay Michael
Published: March 2009

For the past twelve years relations between the United States and the People's Republic of China have remained in an almost rigid posture of hostility. One can point to a few minor accommodations since the beginning of ambassadorial talks, but there have been no signs of development towards even the increased contacts and less ubiquitous hostility that now characterise relations between the United States and the Soviet Union.
Peaceful Engagement in Communist Disunity
Authors: Brzezinski Zbigniew
Published: March 2009

The policies of containment and of liberation were based on the premise that there is a united Soviet bloc. The purpose of containment was to prevent Soviet expansion; the purpose of liberation to roll back Communist frontiers. These policies have ceased to be relevant for the sixties. Today, the unity of the Communist camp is being strained by the increasingly open Sino-Soviet dispute.
A Talk with Hu Shih
Authors: Shih Vincent Y. C.
Published: March 2009

The distinguished Chinese scholar Hu Shih died on February 24. Born in 1891 and educated at Cornell and Columbia, Dr. Hu will always be remembered as the apostle of the literary revolution that led to the replacement of classical Chinese by the vernacular (pai-hua) as the literary medium. During the twenties and thirties, he held important academic posts including that of Dean of the College of Arts at the National Peking University during 1930–37. During much of the war (1938–42), he was his country's ambassador in Washington, but later returned to academic life as Chancellor of the Peking National University (1945–49). A disciple of Dewey, Dr. Hu had remained faithful to liberalism and pragmatism when many of his colleagues turned to Marxism, and when the Communists took over he left China. Because of their great influence, his ideas were selected by the Communists as a prime object of attack during the early fifties in their campaign to remould the intellectuals. After living in the United States for a number of years, Dr. Hu settled in Formosa where he was appointed President of the Academia Sinica in 1958.
The Emulation of Heroes
Authors: Sheridan Mary
Published: March 2009

Mao's cultural revolution is perhaps the most extensive effort in history to transform a nation by changing the character of its people. It is a moralistic and inner- as well as outer-directed revolution. In the simplest ideological terms, “good men and good deeds” is a central theme, and “selfishness” is the principal enemy. To personify these ideals and to illustrate the method of attaining them, a succession of heroes have been put forward for nation-wide emulation.
Transfer of Legitimacy in the Chinese Communist Party: Origins of the Maoist Myth
Authors: Dorrill William F.
Published: March 2009

In January 1935 the harassed, decimated main forces of the Chinese Communist movement paused in the course of their epic Long March from Kiangsi to rest and regroup at Tsunyi in the hills of northern Kweichow. During their brief occupation of this remote, provincial town the top political and military leaders present held a conference which has come to be regarded as the major turning point in the history of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). At the time, however, no such significance was attached to the stop-over in Tsunyi and, indeed, the very fact that an important political meeting was convened there was not revealed for some years after.
The Institutionalisation of the Chinese Communist Revolution: The Ladder of Success on the Eve of the Cultural Revolution
Authors: Oksenberg Michel
Published: March 2009

By the mid 1960s, the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) had structured the opportunities and career choices available to the Chinese people. In their individual decisions, the Chinese people had to confront the questions Mao wanted them to face, such as whether to join the Party, to serve the people, and to become heavily involved in political life. Mao and his associates had helped to shape the determinants of social mobility and delineate the skills needed to get ahead and along in China. By 1965, the violence, uncertainty, and turmoil which affected lives during the revolutionary era had given way to a period of more stable, predictable, and structured career patterns.
Chinese Foreign Policy after 1963: The Maoist Phases
Authors: Yahuda Michael B.
Published: March 2009

Marxist-Leninist and Maoist ideology in theory postulate objectives (both long and short term) and dictate both the organisational means and action programmes necessary to achieve them. Theory and practice should therefore be integrated into a coherent dynamic whole. Or, in other terms, the aspirational and operational aspects of policy should pursue the same ends. The object of this article is to examine the inter-relationship of the aspirational and operational aspects of Maoist foreign policy. The first is concerned with the future development of world revolution and China's relationship to it. But it is also related to the realisation of China's long-term goals. The second deals with the shrinking scope currently allocated in Peking to normalised interstate relations. But it is also concerned with China's active promotion and support of guerrilla movements in many of the states on her periphery.
Mao versus Liu? Policy Towards Industry and Commerce, 1946–49
Authors: Lieberthal Kenneth
Published: March 2009

The Cultural Revolution in China yielded a variety of “charges” and “disclosures” about internal politics that will form the basis of a considerable amount of discussion among China scholars during the coming years. The task of determining which of these revelations can contribute to our knowledge about past events in Communist China and whicl ones may be misleading has already begun. In an attempt to further this work, this article evaluates one group of these charges – that concerning differences between Mao Tse-tung's and Liu Shao-ch'i's conceptions of the urban revolution in China after Liberation, especially as these differences were emphasized during Liu's visit to Tientsin in April–May 1949.
Sino-Soviet Exchange Rates
Authors: Chao Kang
Published: March 2009

In one of my articles published in this journal several years ago, I promised to clarify the mystery of the Sino-Soviet exchange rate system. However, some puzzling points remained unanswerable until the publication of an article by Iu. V. Vladimirov. Now, there seems to be a clearer picture about the most complex exchange rate system that has ever existed between any two national currencies.
Problems of Liberalization and the Succession at the Eighth Party Congress Roderick MacFarquhar
Authors: MacFarquhar Roderick
Published: March 2009

The eighth Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) met on 15 September 1956 in an atmosphere of some triumph. In the 11 years that had elapsed since the seventh Congress, the Communists had defeated the Kuomintang, taken over the country and set up a strong administration that had given the country the peace and unity so desperately lacking over the previous century. They had restored and developed the economy, substantially collectivized agriculture – without the drastic consequences suffered by the Soviet Union – and they had nationalized or semi-nationalized private industry and commerce. The People's Liberation Army had fought impressively in Korea, engendering a healthy respect abroad for the new Chinese regime. More recently, especially since the 1955 Bandung Conference, Chinese diplomacy had won new friends in Asia. China had stood up, Mao had said in 1949, and by 1956 it was clear to all that it had.
China and the European Community
Authors: Wilson Dick
Published: March 2009

”France and China,” said Alain Peyrefitte, the Gaullist leader, in Peking two years ago, “ are objective allies.” In a broader sense it could be said today that China and the European Community are objective allies — even though they do not yet enjoy a formal relationship. The Chinese leadership has consistently and strongly supported the enlargement of the European Economic Community (EEC) which from the beginning of 1973 has joined Great Britain, the Irish Republic and Denmark to the original six founders (Belgium, France, West Germany, Holland, Italy and Luxembourg) in a venture which promises at long last an institutional framework within which Western Europe could move towards economic and political unity.