Abstract 3447: Potential for reduction in invasive cancer incidence by interception of preneoplastic lesions
Authors: Pradhan Pranoti , Ghobrial Irene , Marinac Catherine , O’Donnell Betsy , Syngal Sapna , Rebbeck Timothy 
Published: March 2024

Background: Preneoplastic lesions (PNL) are morphologically identifiable lesions lack the ability to invade surrounding tissue but can progress to invasive cancer. Thus, PNL present an opportunity to identify individuals at elevated cancer risk and identify opportunities for early detection and interception of cancer.

Objective: We used published data sources to estimate the impact of intercepting progression of PNL to invasive cancer across multiple anatomic sites. We estimated the hypothetical number of cancers that could be avoided in the United States population if interception was successful in preventing a percentage of individuals with PNL from progressing to invasive cancer.

Methods: Estimates of prevalence, latency, and probability of percent progression of PNL to invasive cancer were obtained from literature. We considered PNL associated with invasive tumors of the breast, bladder, cervix, colorectum, esophagus, liver, lung, oropharynx, pancreas, prostate, skin (melanocytes), skin (squamous cells), and stomach as well as precursors to leukemia and myeloma. We modeled a cohort of 100,000 individuals from which we estimated the number of cases that could be avoided if interception of a PNL before it progressed to an invasive cancer case was successful. Results were stratified for race and sex; positive- and negative-predictive values were calculated.

Results: For PNL with a higher prevalence and percent progression per year, there were more invasive cancers that could be avoided if interception was successful. Detection of PNL associated with pancreas, stomach, oral, and prostate cancers had the greatest potential to avoid invasive cancers in the US population. For example, if 95% of pancreatic intraepithelial neoplasia lesions were detected, 15% progressed to pancreas cancer, and assuming a 43% prevalence over a 5-year latency period, 1,226 potential invasive pancreatic cancer cases could be avoided per year. Similarly, 998 potential invasive stomach cancer cases could be avoided earlier if 95% of gastric intestinal metaplasia lesions were detected assuming 42% progressed to invasive cancer with a 19% prevalence and a 4-year latency period. Additionally, if we could intercept 5% to 95% of all PNL from becoming invasive cancer, we would avoid between 176 to 8,515 number of invasive cases being diagnosed. When stratified by race, symptomatic multiple myeloma can be avoided in individuals with monoclonal gammopathies of undetermined significance if this condition is detected earlier among Black individuals.

Conclusion: By detecting PNL and preventing them from advancing to invasive cancer, we can avoid substantial mortality as well as the costs and morbidities associated with treating more advanced cancers.

Citation Format: Pranoti Pradhan, Irene Ghobrial, Catherine Marinac, Betsy O’Donnell, Sapna Syngal, Timothy Rebbeck. Potential for reduction in invasive cancer incidence by interception of preneoplastic lesions [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 3447.