bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
George Finlay's Contributions to the Discovery of the Stone Age in Greece
Authors: Runnels Curtis
Published: June 2011

In 1869, the historian George Finlay published a small pamphlet in Greek, entitled Παρατηρήσεις ἐπἰ τῆς ἐν Ἑλβετίᾳ και Ἑλλάδι Προϊστορικῆς Ἀρχαιολογίας (Observations on Prehistoric Archaeology in Switzerland and Greece), describing the discovery of Neolithic artefacts from Greece. This pamphlet is largely forgotten today, and the discovery of the Greek Stone Age is usually accorded to twentieth-century prehistorians (see e.g. Tsountas's excavations at Sesklo and Dimini). This article discusses Finlay's publication, and presents for the first time the transcription of the original English manuscript, upon which Παρατηρήσεις (Observations) was based. This material sheds light on the early stages of Aegean prehistory, and especially of Finlay's pioneering role.

To 1869, ο ιστορικός George Finlay δημοσίευσε στην ελληνική γλώσσα ένα ευσύνοπτο φυλλάδιο, με τον τίτλο «Παρατηρήσεις ἐπἰ τῆς ἐν Ἑλβετίᾳ καί Ἑλλάδι Προϊστορικῆς Ἀρχαιολογίας», όπου περιέγραφε την ανακάλυψη στον ελλαδικό χώρο ευρημάτων του Νεολιθικού πολιτισμού. Το φυλλάδιο αυτό έχει γενικώς σήμερα ξεχαστεί, ενώ η ανακάλυψη της εποχής του λίθου στον ελλαδικό χώρο, κατά κανόνα ταυτίζεται με του μελετητές της ελληνικής προϊστορίας, οι οποίοι έδρασαν τον 20ο αιώνα (βλέπε ανασκαφές Τσούντα στο Σέσκλο και το Διμήνι). Το εν λόγω άρθρο πραγματεύεται τη δημοσίευση του Finlay και παρουσιάζεται για πρώτη φορά η μεταγραφή του πρωτοτύπου αγγλικού κειμένου, επάνω στο οποίο βασίστηκαν οι παρατηρήσεις. Το υλικό αυτό διαφωτίζει τα πρώιμα στάδια της Αιγιακής προϊστορίας, αναδεικνύοντας συγχρόνως τον πρωτοποριακό ρόλο, που διαδραμάτισε ο Finlay.
Knossos, the Little Palace North Project, Part I: the Early Greek Periods
Authors: Hatzaki E. , Prent M. , Coldstream J.N. , Evely D. , LIvarda A.
Published: June 2011

This article is the first of a series presenting the results of two seasons of excavation (2001 and 2002) at the Little Palace North site, Knossos. The excavation was aimed at the exploration of the exposed earth section directly north of the Little Palace, prior to the construction of a drystone wall which was to protect this section from further erosion. While limited in extent, the excavation provided an opportunity to increase our understanding of the layout of the LM and later town and, more generally, of the complex history of occupation of this area, which spans the period from at least the sixteenth century BC to the fourth century AD.

In regard to the early Greek periods, few architectural remains were encountered at the Little Palace North site. Instead, early Greek strata, covering all periods from Subminoan to Orientalizing, yielded evidence for various activities that took place outdoors. These activities included, in one area, the (enigmatic) use of large, clay-lined 'pans' and, in another, metal-working. The results add to our knowledge of the activities at early Greek Knossos and the spatial organization of the settlement.

The article offers a full discussion of the stratigraphy of the early Greek levels, the associated pottery, small finds, and archaeobotanical material.

Σε αυτό το άρθρο δημοσιεύονται – για πρώτη φορά – τα αποτελέσματα των ανασκαφών (2001 και 2002) στην περιοχή βόρεια του Μικρού Ανακτόρου στην Κνωσό. Σκοπός της ανασκαφής ήταν να ερευνηθεί η αρχαιολογική τομή που βρίσκεται αμέσως βόρεια του Μικρού Ανακτόρου, προτού ανεγερθεί ξερολιθιά με σκοπό να προστατευθεί η τομή από περεταίρω διάβρωση. Παρόλο που ήχαν περιορισμένη σε έκταση, η ανασκαφή μας έδωσε την δυνατότητα να καταλάβουμε καλύτερα την δομή της Υστερομινωικής και υστερότερης πόλης, ιδιαίτερα την πολύπλοκη ιστορία της κατοίκησης της περιοχής από το 160 αιώνα π.Χ. μεχρι και τον 40 αιώνα μ.Χ.

Σχετικά με την πρώιμη Ελληνική εποχή, ελάχιστα οικοδομικά λείψανα βρέθηκαν στην περιοχή βόρεια του Μικρού Ανακτόρου. Παρόλα αυτά, τα αρχαιολογικά στρώματα των πρώιμων Ελληνικών χρόνων καλύπτουν από την Υπομινωική μέχρι την Ανατολίζουσα περίοδο, παρουσιάζοντας ενδείξεις για διαφορες δραστηριότητες οι οποίες ελάμβαναν μέρος σε εξωτερικούς χώρους. Οι δραστηριότητες αυτές συμπεριλάμβαναν την αινυγματική χρήση μεγάλων “τηγανιών” με πήλινη επικαλυψη, όπως και μεταλλουργία. Τα αποτελέσματα προσθέτουν στις γνώσεις μας για τις δραστηριότητες στην πρώιμη Ελληνική Κνωσό αλλά και για τη χωροταξία του οικισμού. Το άρθρο αυτό προσφέρει την πλήρη ανάλυση της στρωματογραφίας, της κεραμεικής, των μικροευρημάτων και του αρχαιοβοτανολογικού υλικού των πρώιμων Ελληνικών χρόνων.
The Discovery of Eleutherna: from the Formation of the Modern Cretan State to Humfry Payne's Excavations (1899–1929)
Authors: Kotsonas Antonis
Published: June 2011

Located in west-central Crete, the ancient city of Eleutherna attracted considerable scholarly interest at the end of the nineteenth and the early twentieth centuries. Drawing on largely unpublished archival information, this paper sheds light on the first archaeological explorations of the site, describing their aims, scope, vicissitudes, and results. Emphasis is given on the plans that the Italian School of Archaeology at Athens developed for Eleutherna and the excavations conducted there, first by the local ephor, E. Petrulakis, and then by the British School at Athens. The ‘discovery of Eleutherna’ is assessed with reference to the shifting scholarly agenda of Cretan archaeology in that period and its relation to major developments in the island's political history.

Η Ελεύθερνα, μια αρχαία πόλη ευρισκόμενη στο κεντρικό προς δυτικό τμήμα της Κρήτης, προσήλκυσε το έντονο ενδιαφέρον των αρχαιολόγων κατά τα τέλη του 19ου και τον πρώιμο 20ο αιώνα. Αντλώντας πληροφορίες από αδημοσίευτο κυρίως, αρχειακό υλικό, η παρούσα μελέτη επιχειρεί μια ανασύνθεση των πρώτων αρχαιολογικών ερευνών στην αρχαία πόλη, εξετάζοντας τα κίνητρα και τους στόχους τους αλλά και τις δυσκολίες και τα αποτελέσματά τους. Έμφαση δίδεται στα σχέδια της Ιταλικής Αρχαιολογικής Σχολής Αθηνών για την Ελεύθερνα, αλλά και στις ανασκαφές που διενέργησαν στη θέση πρώτα ο τοπικός έφορος αρχαιοτήτων, Ε. Πετρουλάκις, και αργότερα η Βρετανική Σχολή Αθηνών. Η «ανακάλυψη ιης Ηλεύθερνας» εξετάζεται σε σχέση με τις μεταβαλλόμενες ερευνητικές προτεραιότητες της κρητικής αρχαιολογίας της περιόδου αλλά κοα σημαντικές αλλαγές σιην πολιτική ιστορία του νησιού.
The Early Byzantine Circular Forum in Dyrrachium (Durrës, Albania) in 2002 and 2004–2005: Recent Recording and Excavation
Authors: Hoti Afrim , Wilkes John , Metalla Elvana , Shkodra Brikena
Published: June 2011

Excavations a decade ago in the centre of the city of Durrës (ancient Dyrrachium) in Albania revealed an extensive complex of concentric structures of the Late Roman and Early Byzantine eras. Initially identified as a market complex (macellum) of a type known in numerous Roman cities, it also became apparent that the circular paved area 40 m diameter within a colonnade at the centre represented a space intended for more formal activities and was most likely a Forum comparable with the Curved Forum at Constantinople. A central focus of the area was a rotundac.5.75 m diameter that may have supported monumental statuary or possible a column. In 2001 a record was made of the architectural remains and in 2004 and 2005 two unfinished trenches adjacent to the Rotunda were enlarged and completed. The dating evidence recovered from beneath the level of the Forum paving indicated a construction date around the end of the sixth century, making it likely that it was one of the embellishments conferred on his native city by the emperor Anastasius (491-518).

Οι προ δεκαετίας ανασκαφές στο κέντρο της πόλης του Δυρραχίου στην Αλβανία αποκάλυψε ένα εκτεταμένο συγκρότημα κυκλικών κατασκευών των Ύστερων πωμαϊκών και των ∏ρώιμων Βυζαντινών χρόνων. Μολονότι εξ' αρχής το συγκρότημα χαρακτηρίστηκε ως αγορά (macellimi), ο τύπος της οποίας συναντάται σε πολλές Ρωμαϊκές πόλεις, έγινε επίσης φανερό, ότι ο πλαισιωμένος με περιστύλιο κυκλικός πλακόστρωτος χώρος διαμέτρου 40 μ αντιπροσώπευε στο κέντρο του ένα χώρο, ο οποίος προοριζόταν περισσότερο για επίσημες δραστηριότητες, ταυτιζόμενος κατά πάσα πιθανότητα με αγορά (Forum), εάν συγκριθεί με την Κυρτή Αγορά της Κωνσταντινούπολης. Το επίκεντρο του χώρου ήταν μία ροτόντα με διάμειρο 5·75 μ κατά προσέγγιση, η οποία ίσως να στήριζε ένα μνημειακό σύμπλεγμα αγαλμάτων ή πιθανώς έναν κίονα. Το έτος 2001 δημιουργήθηκε ένα αρχείο για τα αρχιτεκτονικά κατάλοιπα και κατά τα έτη 2004 και 2005 δύο μη ολοκληρωμένες ανασκαφικές τομές, παρακείμενες της ροτόντας, επεκτάθηκαν και ανεσκάφησαν πλήρως. Τα δεδομένα χρονολόγησης, που συλλέχθηκαν κάτω από το επίπεδο του πλακόστρωτου της αγοράς τοποθετούν την οικοδόμησή της περί τα τέλη του 60υ αι. μ.Χ., συνηγορώντας προς την άποψη, ότι πιθανώς πρόκειται για ένα από τα αφιερώματα, που πρόσφερε στη γενέτειρά του, ο Αυτοκράτωρ Αναστάσιος (491–518 μ.Χ.).
Mycenae and Tiryns: the Pottery of the Second Half of the Thirteenth Century BC - Contexts and Definitions
Authors: French Elizabeth B. , Stockhammer Philipp W. , Damm-Meinhardt Ursula
Published: June 2011

Since 1950 widespread and important excavation has taken place in the Argolid. For Mycenae and Tiryns much of the post-excavation study has now been completed but has not yet reached final publication. The use of material from the preliminary reports has, however, led to conclusions which are not justified. The study teams at both sites, working in close collaboration, present here the detailed stratigraphie background to their work and the definitive assignments produced. The diagnostic pottery for the second half of the thirteenth centurybc(LH III B2 Early and Late), which culminated in a major destruction at each site, is illustrated with its contextual background. The relationship between the two sites can thus be accurately assessed and the evidence will enable well-founded historical hypotheses.

Από το 1950 εκτεταμένες και σημαντικές ανασκαφικές έρευνες έχουν λάβει χώρα στην Αργολίδα. Για τις Μυκήνες και την Τίρυνθα ένα μεγάλο μέρος της μετα-ανασκαφικής μελέτης έχει πλέον ολοκληρωθεί δίχως ωστόσο να έχει φτάσει στο τελικό στάδιο της δημοσίευσης. Η χρήση υλικού από τις προκαταρκτικές εκθέσεις έχει ωστόσο οδηγήσει σε συμπεράσματα, τα οποία δεν μπορούν να τεκμηριωθούν. Οι ερευνητικές ομάδες των δύο θέσεων, στενά συνεργαζόμενες, παρουσιάζουν στο άρθρο αυτό το λεπτομερές στρωματογραφικό πλαίσιο της εργασίας τους και τις τελικές εκθέσεις. Η διαγνωστική κεραμική για το δεύτερο ήμισυ του δέκατου τρίτου αιώνα π.Χ. (YE III B2 Πρώιμη και Ύστερη), περίοδος που σημαδεύτηκε αηό μία μεγάλη καταστροφή και στις δύο θέσεις, επεξηγείται στο πλαίσιο των συνευρημάτων της. Η σχέση των δύο θέσεων μπορεί με αυτόν τον τρόπο να αξιολογηθεί με μεγαλύτερη ακρίβεια. Τα στονχεία αυτά θα επιτρέψουν τη διατύπωση καλά θεμελιωμένων ιστορικών υποθέσεων.
Structural stability of attractor–repellor endomorphisms with singularities
Authors: BERGER PIERRE
Published: June 2011

We prove a theorem on the structural stability of smooth attractor–repellor endomorphisms of compact manifolds, with singularities. By attractor–repellor, we mean that the non-wandering set of the dynamics f is the disjoint union of an expanding compact subset with a hyperbolic attractor on which f acts bijectively. The statement of this result is both infinitesimal and dynamical. To our knowledge, this is the first in this hybrid direction. Our results also generalize Mather’s theorem in singularity theory, which states that infinitesimal stability implies structural stability for composed mappings to the larger category of laminations.
Convergence of moments for Axiom A and non-uniformly hyperbolic flows
Authors: MELBOURNE IAN , TÖRÖK ANDREI
Published: June 2011

In the paper, we prove convergence of moments of all orders for Axiom A diffeomorphisms and flows. The same results hold for non-uniformly hyperbolic diffeomorphisms and flows modelled by Young towers with superpolynomial tails. For polynomial tails, we prove convergence of moments up to a certain order, and give examples where moments diverge when this order is exceeded. Non-uniformly hyperbolic systems covered by our result include Hénon-like attractors, Lorenz attractors, semidispersing billiards, finite horizon planar periodic Lorentz gases, and Pomeau–Manneville intermittency maps.
Differentiating potential functions of SRB measures on hyperbolic attractors
Authors: JIANG MIAOHUA
Published: June 2011

The derivation of Ruelle’s derivative formula of the SRB measure depends largely on the calculation of the derivative of the unstable Jacobian. Although Ruelle’s derivative formula is correct, the proofs in the original paper and its corrigendum are not complete. In this paper, we re-visit the differentiation process of the unstable Jacobian and provide a complete derivation of its derivative formula. Our approach is to extend the volume form provided by the SRB measure on local unstable manifolds to a system of Hölder continuous local Riemannian metrics on the manifold so that under this system of local metrics, the unstable Jacobian becomes differentiable with respect to the base point and its derivative with respect to the map can be obtained by the chain rule.
An efficient diagnosis algorithm for inconsistent constraint sets
Authors: Felfernig A. , Schubert M. , Zehentner C.
Published: June 2011

Constraint sets can become inconsistent in different contexts. For example, during a configuration session the set of customer requirements can become inconsistent with the configuration knowledge base. Another example is the engineering phase of a configuration knowledge base where the underlying constraints can become inconsistent with a set of test cases. In such situations we are in the need of techniques that support the identification of minimal sets of faulty constraints that have to be deleted in order to restore consistency. In this paper we introduce a divide and conquer-based diagnosis algorithm (FastDiag) that identifies minimal sets of faulty constraints in an overconstrained problem. This algorithm is specifically applicable in scenarios where the efficient identification of leading (preferred) diagnoses is crucial. We compare the performance of FastDiag with the conflict-directed calculation of hitting sets and present an in-depth performance analysis that shows the advantages of our approach.
The gradient nature ofs-lenition in Caleño Spanish
Authors: File-Muriel Richard J. , Brown Earl K.
Published: June 2011

Whereas previous studies of Spanishs-weakening have relied on impressionistic coding, the present study examines temporal and gradient acoustic details in the production of /s/ by eight females from Cali, Colombia, during sociolinguistic interviews. We propose a metric for quantifyings-realization by employing three scalar-dependent variables:s-duration, centroid, and voicelessness. The results of linear regressions indicate that the dependent variables are significantly conditioned by local speaking rate, word position, following and preceding phonological context, stress, and lexical frequency. This study sheds light on how each independent variable influencess-realization acoustically. For example, as local speaking rate increases, duration, centroid, and voicelessness decrease, which is indicative of lenition, and the same weakening tendency is observed when /s/ occurs in word-final position or is followed by a nonhigh vowel, whereas frequency contributes only tos-duration. We discuss the advantages of opting for instrumental measurements over symbolic representation.
Notes on the FT/S&P Actuaries World Indices in 1997
Authors: Brumwell J. C. H.
Published: June 2011

This is the eleventh year of publication of the FT/S&P World Indices. R.H. Pain's retirement is marked. Equity indices are given for 28 countries, 11 regional groups, and the World.
A Review of the Statutory Valuation of Long-Term Insurance Business in the United Kingdom
Authors: Wright P.W. , Burgess S.J. , Chadburn R.G. , Chamberlain A.J.M. , Frankland R. , Gill J.E. , Lechmere D.J. , Margutti S.F.
Published: June 2011

This paper considers the approaches currently used by life offices for statutory valuations, and proposes a number of changes to current practice. It builds on the earlier work of Philip Scott's Working Party and a working party which reported on all aspects of unitised with-profits business to the 1996 CILA conference.

Recommendations are made for each of the major categories of long-term business, in particular for the introduction of a bonus reserve standard for accumulating with-profits business, whilst retaining the net premium standard for conventional with-profits business. It is proposed that the current net premium approach for non-profit business should be replaced by a gross premium method. The paper also develops a greater codification of the calculation of non-unit reserves on linked business.

Considerable emphasis is placed on the requirement for statutory reserves to have regard to PRE. It is assumed throughout that the E.C. Third Life Directive remains in its current form.

A number of examples are provided which illustrate the proposed method for accumulating with-profits business. Appendices to the paper include a draft of suggested consequential changes to the Insurance Companies Regulations 1994, and a revised supporting version of the whole of GN8.
A Stochastic Model Underlying the Chain-Ladder Technique
Authors: Renshaw A.E. , Verrall R.J.
Published: June 2011

This paper presents a statistical model underlying the chain-ladder technique. This is related to other statistical approaches to the chain-ladder technique which have been presented previously. The statistical model is cast in the form of a generalised linear model, and a quasi-likelihood approach is used. It is shown that this enables the method to process negative incremental claims. It is suggested that the chain-ladder technique represents a very narrow view of the possible range of models.
Non-Parametric Likelihood Enhancements to Parametric Graduations
Authors: Thomson R.J.
Published: June 2011

Parametric graduation may fail to achieve satisfactory results without overparameterisation. Whittaker-Henderson graduation tends to constrain the graduated values towards a low-order polynomial. Non-parametric methods do not generally make direct use of true likelihood functions. This paper suggests a method of enhancing the likelihood of a parametric graduation by means of non-parametric methods, thus reducing the disadvantages of both methods.

The parametric graduation is taken to be ideally smooth by definition and is adjusted by using constrained maximum likelihood estimation to obtain better fidelity to the experience. The constraint imposes a minimum sacrifice of smoothness, in terms of a quantitative smoothness criterion, from the initial ideal. The method is not entirely objective in that, in some cases, professional judgement is required in order to assess the degree of smoothness that can be imposed. In other cases the method provides an objective optimum. In either case, by quantifying the degrees of departure from perfect fidelity and from ideal smoothness, the suggested method provides useful and theoretically sound criteria for the purposes of the optimisation process. In particular, by inverting the parametric graduation formula for the purposes of defining the smoothness criterion, the method ensures that the smoothness criterion is consistent over the whole age range, thus resolving the main objection to non-parametric graduation.

The method is applied to the 1979-82 experience for life office pensioners in the United Kingdom with positive results.
Francis Baily: Another Astronomer and Actuary
Authors: Heywood Geoffrey
Published: June 2011

On the occasion of the forthcoming total eclipse of the sun in Devon and Cornwall on 11 August 1999, the name of Baily is likely to receive much publicity because of the accompanying phenomenon of Baily's Beads. The paper explains Baily's Beads and also summarises the very considerable contribution which he made to actuarial science in the early days.
An Analysis of the Level of Security Provided by the Minimum Funding Requirement
Authors: Cairns A.J.G.
Published: June 2011

In this paper we investigate the effectiveness of the Minimum Funding Requirement (MFR) (pre-1999 version) under random future investment conditions. In particular, do the various liabilities calculated under the MFR deliver a suitable level of security to pension scheme members?

The paper considers active (and deferred) members and current pensioners separately.

For active members, Monte Carlo simulation is used to compare how the proceeds arising from investment of the pre-1999 MFR liability in an equity-backed personal pension would compare with the deferred pension promised by the scheme. It is found that, while there may be the intended 50% chance that the personal pension has a better outcome, there are very substantial downside risks for younger members. Investment strategies based upon index-linked gilts are shown to result, on average, in lower personal pensions, but they provide an extremely effective means of limiting the downside risks.

For pensioners, Monte Carlo simulation is used to find the distribution of the initial amount of assets required to pay off precisely the pension liabilities as they arise. This investigation considers the effectiveness of the 12-year rule and different investment strategies. The 12-year rule in combination with an equivalent investment strategy is shown to provide reasonable security for a typical group of pensioners. However, if investments are restricted to an appropriate mixture of gilts then the level of security for pensioners is much increased. In particular, we investigate the use of value-at-risk reserves. It is found that 95% value-at-risk reserves are lower for a mixed conventional/index-linked gilts strategy than a mixed gilts/equity strategy.

It is argued, because of the high degree of downside risk, that there is no place in MFR calculations for high, anticipated equity returns. Instead rates of interest should be based solely upon fixed-interest and index-linked gilt yields.
Developing an International Accounting Standard for Life Assurance Business
Authors: Forfar D.O. , Masters N.B.
Published: June 2011

There is currently no international standard for profit reporting in life insurance companies. The paper sets out the issues which an international standard for life companies will need to address, bearing in mind compatibility with existing International Accounting Standards, in particular IAS 32 Financial Instruments: disclosure and presentation, IAS Exposure Draft E62 (now IAS 39); Financial instruments; recognition and measurement and the discussion paper of March 1997 prepared by the Steering Committee on Financial Instruments entitled ‘Accounting for Financial Assets and Financial Liabilities’. The paper discusses possible approaches to the issues which arise and comments on each, ending with some final conclusions.
Recent Developments in Directors' Duties (Staple Inn Reading 1999)
Authors: Arden Mary
Published: June 2011

Company directors play a key role in any company and thus in the contribution which business makes to the economy and to society. Reform of company law is being actively debated. This places under the spotlight such questions as should directors' duties be made clearer? Should directors only owe duties to their shareholders? Are directors adequately monitored, for example in corporate activities, pay and political donations? The object of the lecture is to review areas of current debate and identify areas where changes are occurring or may occur.
A Non-Linear Stochastic Asset Model for Actuarial Use
Authors: Whitten S.P. , Thomas R.G.
Published: June 2011

This paper reviews the stochastic asset model described in Wilkie (1995) and previous work on refining this model. The paper then considers the application on non-linear modelling to investment series, considering both ARCH techniques and threshold modelling. The paper suggests a threshold autoregressive (TAR) system as a useful progression from the Wilkie (1995) model. The authors are making available (on compact disk) a collection of spreadsheets, which they have used to simulate the stochastic asset models which are considered in this paper.
Property Investment Appraisal
Authors: Adams A.T. , Booth P.M. , MacGregor B.D.
Published: June 2011

This paper considers the application of discounted cash flow (DCF) techniques to the analysis of the property investment market. The traditional method of property valuation is briefly outlined and its shortcomings highlighted. An alternative DCF procedure is derived to calculate the present value of a property investment. This method will be familiar to actuaries, but is not always used in property disciplines. The sensitivities of this formulation to changes in the force of real interest, force of real rental growth and force of inflation are derived. It is suggested how these formulae may be used for property investment appraisal and risk analysis. We conclude that DCF offers a more flexible and accurate means of estimating the value of a property, and that property valuers, financial economists and actuaries should work jointly to develop practical DCF methods. However, so long as traditional methods of valuation prevail, a rational investor must use both methods to identify mispriced property assets. There have been few property contributions to the actuarial literature in the United Kingdom; this paper is intended to build on the few previous papers and suggests directions for future work.
Address by the President of the Institute of Actuaries: Turning Promises into Reality
Authors: Daykin Christopher David
Published: June 2011

The Presidential Address gives a broad overview of the development of the actuarial profession's role in its principle areas of activity. Actuaries play important roles in life insurance and pensions, but there are some major new challenges facing the profession in these areas. General insurance has been slow to develop, but is now likely to be the fastest growing part of the profession with a steadily expanding role. Finance and investment also offer major fields where actuaries could be more influential. With continuing growth expected in the number of qualified actuaries, it will also be important to move into wider fields. The new President challenges the profession to give proper priority to the public interest and to ensure that actuaries are worthy of the trust which is placed in them.
An Introduction to Offshore Life Assurance Business
Authors: Boal G.F. , Tyrer L.S.
Published: June 2011

Over the last 10 years, in centres surrounding the United Kingdom, a cross-border insurance industry has been developing — an industry which is exporting British expertise in life assurance and investment products on a large scale to a world-wide market.

The industry is offshore life assurance. The purpose of this paper is principally to outline what this industry is and why it exists.

The particular financial management and operational management issues resulting from this activity are highlighted and explored in subsequent sections. The paper concludes with an assessment of market trends and future development in what is a very young, dynamic and highly competitive market.
Pension Fund Asset Valuation and Investment
Authors: Dyson A.C.L. , Exley C.J.
Published: June 2011

The theoretical basis for, and practical application of, the discounted income method for valuing UK pension fund assets is discussed, with particular reference to the widely adopted application to variable income (equity type) assets, as proposed by Day & McKelvey (1964), in the context of both the management and compliance objectives of pension fund valuation. An alternative methodology is proposed in which consistency with assets, liabilities, and market values is demanded, with smoothing of the valuation result achieved on an explicit rather than implicit basis. It is then demonstrated that the explicit smoothing parameter can be set so as to achieve the historic smoothness framework for establishing pension fund investment policy.

In conclusion the paper suggests greater emphasis on market-related methodologies for compliance valuations and leaves open the choice of methodology for management valuations and monitoring purposes, on the grounds that there is a large subjective element in any realistic basis. However, it is demonstrated that while smoother than unadjusted market-related methods, other aspects of the dynamics of the funding level under the method of Day & McKelvey can be perverse and it is suggested that this method should not be allowed to dictate investment decisions.
Pension Fund Asset Valuation and Investment
Authors: Dyson A.C.L. , Exley C.J.
Published: June 2011

The text of this paper, together with the abstract of the discussion held at Staple Inn Hall, London, on 23 January 1995, are printed in British Actuarial Journal, 1, III, pages 471-557.
Two-Dimensional Mortality Data: Patterns and Projections
Authors: Richards S. J. , Ellam J. R. , Hubbard J. , Lu J. L. C. , Makin S. J. , Miller K. A.
Published: June 2011

The text of this paper, together with the abstract of the discussion held by the Faculty of Actuaries on 19 March 2007, are printed in British Actuarial Journal, 13, III, 479-555.
Corporate Decisions in General Insurance: Beyond the Frontier
Authors: Cumberworth M. P. , Hitchcox A. N. , McConnell W.D. , Smith A.D.
Published: June 2011

This paper shows how the powerful and flexible tool of stochastic modelling can be applied to a range of business decisions extending far beyond the asset allocation solutions that are common to many asset/liability modelling studies. The example used to demonstrate these techniques is a general insurance case study, but similar principles can be extended to many different business situations. At each stage of the analysis we consider the implications of modern financial theory on the management decision process together with a practical perspective on observed behaviour in the real world. Opportunities are taken to suggest directions in which further research may be of benefit to the actuarial profession.
Professions in Society
Authors: Bellis C.S.
Published: June 2011

Actuaries should seek to understand the phenomenon of ‘professions’ because much of our working life is influenced by the belief that we are a ‘profession’. This paper considers various theories as to why professions exist — do they arise naturally to fulfil functions in society, or are they created by the efforts of the occupational groups which aspire to become professions? Professions are shaped by the society of which they are a part. Ongoing changes in society are affecting professions in general, and the actuarial profession in particular. The difficulties which the actuarial profession will face as it seeks to expand beyond its traditional territory are discussed. Finally the author speculates on what institutional forms might replace professions in the twenty-first century.
The Recent Trend of Mortality in the United Kingdom
Authors: Daykin C.D.
Published: June 2011

This note continues a regular series on mortality rates in the United Kingdom. Mortality experienced in each of the years 1994 to 1998 is shown by five-year age groups, and comparisons are made for broad age groups, on a standardised basis, with mortality in earlier years.
Annual General Meeting of the Institute of Actuaries
Authors: Thornton P.N. , Ferguson D.G.R. , Carsberg B.
Published: June 2011

I now report on my period as President and give my thoughts on the issues which face the profession. But first I would like to call on my friend John Finlaison to remind us of what he said in opening the inaugural discussion of the Institute of Actuaries in 1848:
Notes on the Ftse Actuaries Share Indices (United Kingdom Series) in 2000
Authors: Brumwell J.C.H.
Published: June 2011

Consolidation of the FTSE Actuaries Share Indices Series and the FTSE Global Industry Classification System. Preparations for the introduction of ‘free float’ weightings (in six bands) on 18 June 2001.
Principles of the Future Education Strategy
Authors: Goford J. , Bellis C.S. , Bykerk C.D. , Carne S.A. , Creedon S. , Daykin C.D. , Dumbreck N.J. , Ferguson D.G.R. , Goodwin E.M. , Grace P.H. , Henderson N.S. , Thornton P.N.
Published: June 2011

The paper explores the framework for the development of actuarial education in the future. The main aims are to broaden the profession while maintaining standards and to achieve global qualifications by working with other actuarial bodies. The suggested way forward would mean several changes from existing practice.
Transparent With-Profits — Freedom with Publicity
Authors: Clay G.D. , Frankland R. , Horn A.D. , Hylands J.F. , Johnson C.M. , Kerry R.A. , Lister J.R. , Loseby R.L.
Published: June 2011

With-profits business has flourished for over a century as a means of providing access to equity-type investment whilst smoothing the volatility risk. Today's world demands greater transparency, and with-profits has come under increasing criticism in this regard. The Working Party concludes that it remains good value as an investment vehicle and suggests how its transparency can be significantly improved.

The paper first analyses the characteristics of with-profits, which it notes has been permitted for stakeholder pensions. It then analyses the various criticisms of with-profits and considers how they can be rebutted without destroying its essential nature, pre-supposing the implementation of the Association of British Insurers' (ABI) Raising Standards scheme.

The paper concludes that greater transparency is both necessary for rebuttal and also achievable without destroying the with-profits concept, to this end proposing a model for the internal analysis of identified classes of with-profits business and the inclusion of specified additional information in the statutory returns to the regulators. It also proposes that policyholders be given slightly more information than is specified under Raising Standards. Finally the paper analyses the implications for the life assurance industry, which it considers acceptable.
Stability of Models for the Term Structure of Interest Rates with Application to German Market Data
Authors: Cairns A.J.G. , Pritchard D.J.
Published: June 2011

This paper discusses the use of parametric models for description of the term structure of interest rates and their uses. We extend earlier work of Cairns (1998), Chaplin (1998) and Feldman et al. (1998), by presenting new theoretical results and also by demonstrating that the same model can be applied to countries other than the United Kingdom. First, we prove that the process of fitting a yield curve to price data has a unique optimal solution in both zero-coupon-bond and low-coupon-bond markets. Furthermore, an alternative method of curve fitting to those proposed previously is shown to have a unique solution in all markets.

The restricted-exponential model has previously been applied to U.K. data (Cairns, 1998). Here, we consider its wider application in European bond markets. In particular, we analyse German market data and conclude that the same model applies equally well to both countries.
Financial Condition Assessment
Authors: Ryan J.P. , Archer-Lock P.R. , Czernuszewicz A.J. , Gillott N.R. , Hinton P.H. , Ibeson D. , Malde S.A. , Paul D. , Shah N.
Published: June 2011

This paper explores an approach to assessing the adequacy of capital resources for non-life insurance companies. It examines the range of risks faced by these companies and the factors that influence the analysis of their impact on an organisation's financial condition. The paper considers how the actuarial profession may contribute to this process, with particular reference to the regulatory regime envisaged in the United Kingdom.
Pensions, Funding and Risk
Authors: Chapman R.J. , Gordon T.J. , Speed C.A.
Published: June 2011

In this paper, we identify the economic system in which occupational pension schemes operate. This system includes all parties to the pension arrangement, particularly the members of the scheme and the shareholders of the sponsoring company. This requires us to model the pension scheme not as a self-contained fund, but simultaneously alongside the company, and to recognise its interaction with other parties with financial interests in the scheme. Under this method, the stakes of the various parties aggregate to 100% of the assets of the company including the assets of the pension scheme. The power of this approach is that decisions taken in relation to the management of the pension scheme can be assessed by the effect they have on the way in which the overall economic value of the company is divided between stakeholders.
Transparent With-Profits — Freedom with Publicity
Authors: Clay G.D. , Frankland R. , Horn A.D. , Hylands J.F. , Johnson C.M. , Kerry R.A. , Lister J.R. , Loseby R.L.
Published: June 2011

The text of this paper, together with the abstracts of the discussions held by the Institute of Actuaries in London on 26 February 2001 and by the Faculty of Actuaries on 19 March 2001, are printed in British Actuarial Journal, 7, III, 365-466.
The Value of Life and the Cost of Living – Damages for Wrongful Birth (Staple Inn Reading 2001)
Authors: Hale
Published: June 2011

The lecture begins by outlining the differences in lifetime earnings between men and women, and between women with different levels of skill and with different numbers of children. It continues with a discussion on wrongful conception and wrongful birth, and the legal implications when damages are sought when children are born who were not meant to have been born. Many examples of claims for damages brought before the courts, over a period of time, are used to illustrate various aspects of this. Cases concerning both healthy and disabled children are discussed, and the changes that occur for all women who have given birth and the mother's responsibility of care are considered.
Notes on the FTSE All-World Index Series: Constituent Changes in 2000
Authors: Brumwell J.C.H.
Published: June 2011

During 2000, which was the fourteenth year of publication of the World Index series, it was expanded to cover a further twenty countries, as it absorbed the Barings Emerging Markets series, becoming the All-World series. Preparations continued for the promised mid-2001 adjustments to reflect the available free floats of constituents' shares.
Longevity in the 21st Century
Authors: Willets R. C. , Gallop A. P. , Leandro P. A. , Lu J. L. C. , Macdonald A. S. , Miller K. A. , Richards S. J. , Robjohns N. , Ryan J. P. , Waters H. R.
Published: June 2011

The main objective of this paper is to offer a detailed analysis of mortality change in the United Kingdom at the beginning the 21st century. Starting from an exploration of 20th century mortality trends, focusing in particular on the 1990s, underlying forces driving trends in longevity are discussed. These include the ‘cohort effect’ and the ‘ageing of mortality improvement’. International mortality statistics and trends are also analysed. The pace of medical advances is discussed, with specific focus on research into the ageing process and a potential treatment for cardiovascular disease. The paper also discusses the potential threat from infectious diseases.

The analysis of underlying trends suggests that life expectancy in retirement in the U.K. is likely to increase rapidly in the early part of the 21st century. Some scientists are also claiming that we will be seeing the fruits of anti-ageing research within just a few decades.

A core theme of the paper is that future projections should be grounded in as good an understanding of the past as possible. Different methods for projecting future rates of mortality are discussed, and it is noted that emphasis should be placed on the uncertainty surrounding projections.

The financial impact of using different assumptions for future mortality is explored. Significant differences in the cost of an annuity or pension arise from the use of the various projection bases.

Life assurance companies have already declared significant losses as a result of strengthening reserves on annuity portfolios. Taken together, future increases in life expectancy, increasing awareness of the risk of providing longevity insurance, changes in legislation and shortages in market capacity and capital, may well lead to worsening annuity rates.

It is difficult to assess the precise impact of future changes in life expectancy on final salary pension schemes. There is a lack of readily available information on the mortality assumptions being used in practice. It is therefore suggested that more disclosure in this area would be helpful. Employers sponsoring final salary schemes are making promises to their employees that extend up to 70 or 80 years into the future. Actuaries should be clear in spelling out to employers and trustees the nature of the risks behind the promises they are making. Future scheme design should reflect the possibility of substantial increases in life expectancy.

An over-riding implication of the anticipated increases in life expectancy is that people will remain in work for longer in the future. The age at which people retire will inevitably have to increase, and this trend will necessarily drive changes in all aspects of our society. As actuaries we have a vital role in helping to inform the wider debate.
Realistic Liabilities and Risk Capital Margins for With-Profits Business. A Discussion Paper
Authors: Dullaway D. W. , Needleman P. D.
Published: June 2011

The paper addresses some of the practical and theoretical issues raised by the move to a market consistent calculation of realistic liabilities and solvency capital for with-profits business. It also proposes some changes to the presentation of the realistic balance sheet, which the authors believe will provide greater transparancy, and more closely reflect the way in which with-profits business should be managed in future.
Current Issues in Pensions
Authors: Fleming D. G. , Gourlay K. O. , Grant A. B. , Muckart R. D. , Taylor K. G.
Published: June 2011

The paper outlines some background thinking to current pensions issues. In particular it addresses areas where the profession requires to articulate clearer views or reasoning about its position.
Address By The President of the Institute of Actuaries: Restoring Confidence in Long-Term Savings
Authors: Pomery Michael Alan
Published: June 2011

This Presidential Address highlights the national problem of inadequate savings for retirement by the current working population. It examines what can be done to restore confidence in long-term savings and, in particular, looks at the contribution that individual actuaries and the Actuarial Profession can make. The Address also examines the origins in the current shortfalls in final salary pension schemes and the lessons to be learned from recent events, before going on to comment on the lessons from the report on Equitable Life by Lord Penrose.
Asset Shares and Their Use in the Financial Management of a With-Profits Fund
Authors: Needleman P.D. , Roff T.A.
Published: June 2011

The text of this paper, together with the abstract of the discussion held by the Institute of Actuaries on 27 February 1995, are printed in British Actuarial Journal, 1, IV, pages 603-688.
The Role of the Actuary in the National Health Services
Authors: Orros G.C.
Published: June 2011

The paper discusses the role of actuaries within the NHS. Actuaries have applied the concept of Geographic Information Systems to health data on patient traffic flows, transportation studies and specialty specific information on NHS providers (such as hospitals, ambulance stations and GP practices). Actuaries have been working with NHS Trusts to generate private patient income. Actuarial modelling developments, as part of a multi-disciplinary approach, have been used to interpret health data and to assist with the reconfiguration of NHS services. Actuaries have also been involved in long-term health services planning and in the financial planning of services for chronically ill patients.

The paper outlines a series of case studies involving actuaries working in the NHS, highlighting their unique contributions. The case studies include advising on emergency health services planning, acute hospital service planning, NHS Trust private patient unit income generation, comparative peer group ranking studies, long-term population projections, health needs assessment and a feasibility study for a provider unit to care for the chronically ill. Finally, we discuss the role of the actuary in the NHS and his or her ability to build a communication bridge between NHS purchasers and providers, in the public interest.
Notes on the FTSE Actuaries Share Indices (United Kingdom Series) in 1995
Authors: Brumwell J.C.H.
Published: June 2011

Consolidation of FT-SE Actuaries share indices, and of revised 1994 Industrial Classification system. New Fledgling Index.
Risk-Based Capital in General Insurance
Authors: Hooker N.D. , Bulmer J.R. , Cooper S.M. , Green P.A.G. , Hinton P.H.
Published: June 2011

This paper looks at the problems of assessing, for solvency purposes, the capital requirements of a non-life insurer in the context of the United Kingdom. It considers how these capital requirements might vary according to the different risks to which an insurer is subject and how this Risk-Based Capital (RBC) might be measured in practice, using as a case study the RBC formula recently introduced in the United States of America. The paper also discusses the application of RBC concepts to the problem of internal capital allocation, to assist in measuring an insurer's rate of return to shareholders by business unit, as well as the more obvious regulatory application. The advantages and disadvantages of a formula-based approach to capital requirements for solvency purposes are discussed in comparison with possible alternative approaches to insurance supervision.
An Alternative to the Net Premium Valuation Method for Statutory Reporting
Authors: Scott P.G. , Elliott S.F. , Gray L.J. , Hewitson T.W. , Lechmere D.J. , Lewis D. , Needleman P.D.
Published: June 2011

This paper reviews the present statutory valuation method and regime. It discusses the usefulness and effectiveness of the method in relation to the current range of insurance contracts. It suggests a possible alternative approach to statutory valuation which could enable offices to demonstrate both their solvency and their ability to meet policyholders' reasonable expectations. It reviews the effects of introducing the suggested method and its relationship with other current reporting issues.
A Primer in Financial Economics
Authors: Whelan S.F. , Bowie D.C. , Hibbert A.J.
Published: June 2011

This paper is divided into three parts. Taken together, the three parts intend to provide the reader with an overview of the first 101 years of financial economics, with particular attention on those developments that are of special interest to actuaries. In Section 1, S.F. Whelan attempts to capture the flavour of the subject and, in particular, to give an overview or road map of this discipline, highlighting actuarial input. In Section 2, D.C. Bowie gives a concise and self-contained overview of the Modigliani and Miller insights (or MM Theorems, as they are often known). In Section 3, A.J. Hibbert considers the novel option pricing method proposed by Black, Merton, and Scholes. These two insights are highlights of this newscience, and, in both cases, contradict our intuition.

T.S. Elliot, the mathematically trained poet, described the darkness that intercedes between the idea and the action as the ‘shadow’. There is a shadow to be considered between these insights and their application. The demonstration of the results requires, of course, some idealised circumstances, and therefore the extent and degree of their applicability to the non- idealised problems encountered by actuaries requires some delicate considerations. An attempt is made to outline these further considerations.