bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Values in (climate) science: What model-based assessments of climate sensitivity teach us about value-judgements and demands on norms thereon
Authors: Undorf Sabine , Pulkkinen Karoliina , Bender Frida , Wikman Svahn Per
Published: March 2021

The need for norms ensuring ethical decision-making in policy is well established, extending to decisions made in the scientific practice that informs policy. Values, including non-epistemic ones such as social values, may guide decision-making in the scientific research process where evidence supports more than one decision given uncertainty, and are thus targeted by many normative suggestions from the philosophical literature. How value-judgements enter the body of research that underlies climate change information, with its immediate relevance for urgent mitigation and adaptation decisions, and how the norms may apply here, is however unclear.

In a practical contribution to the debate on values in climate science, we discuss the process of assessing equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS), an idealised property of the real world of high scientific and societal relevance that has as the ‘holy grail’ of climate science been regularly assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. We develop a framework consisting of the steps ​model building​, ​deriving ECS​, ​combining model results​, and communicating the findings​ along with the overarching choice of research question​ and ​publishing​, and present and summarise uncertainties, choices, and possible value-judgements involved in each step. We discuss this in the context of scientific objectivity, scrutinise existing normative, action-guiding literature on values, and suggest requirements for applicable norms and ideas.

We find that both epistemic and non-epistemic values are likely to come into play in scientific practice, with the latter arguably playing a relatively larger role further along the assessment steps. A review of existing literature shows that many of the norms proposed do not reflect the characteristics and complexities of assessments drawing on climate modelling: We find that, among others, it is particularly the distribution of epistemic agency; the technical nature of many of the choices; the unpredictability of a decision for further/future model outcomes; the multi-purposeness of models; and the type of value-judgements -other than risk preferences- involved that pose challenges for existing normative ideas. This calls for the development of new such framings more easily applicable to climate science, potentially guided by the insights presented including the step-framework suggested as a way to structure the analysis of the assessment process.

2.11.0.0
Learning from mistakes - Assessing the performance and uncertainty in process-based models
Authors: Roesky Benjamin , Feigl Moritz , Herrnegger Mathew , Schulz Karsten , Hayashi Masaki
Published: March 2021

Typical applications of process- or physically-based models aim to gain a better process understanding of certain natural phenomena or to estimate the impact of changes in the examined system caused by anthropogenic influences, such as land-use or climate change. To adequately represent the physical system, it is necessary to include all (essential) processes in the applied model and to observe relevant inputs in the field. However, model errors, i.e. deviations between observed and simulated values, can still occur. Other than large systematic observation errors, simplified, misrepresented or missing processes are potential sources of errors. This study presents a set of methods and a proposed workflow for analyzing errors of process-based models as a basis for relating them to process representations.

The evaluated approach consists of three steps: (1) prediction of model errors with a machine learning (ML) model using data that might be associated with model errors (e.g., model input data), (2) derivation of variable importance (i.e. contribution of each input variable to prediction) for each predicted model error using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), (3) clustering of SHAP values of all predicted errors to derive groups with similar error generation characteristics. By analyzing these groups of different error/variable association, hypotheses on error generation and corresponding processes can be formulated. This analysis framework can ultimately lead to improving hydrologic understanding and prediction.

The framework is applied to the physically-based stream water temperature model HFLUX in a case study for modelling an alpine stream in the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Initial statistical tests show a significant association of model errors with available meteorological and hydrological variables. By using these variables as input features, the applied ML model is able to predict model residuals. Clustering of SHAP values results in four distinct error groups that can be related to tree shading, sensible and latent heat flux and longwave radiation emitted by trees.

Model errors are rarely random and often contain valuable information. Assessing model error associations is ultimately a way of enhancing trust in implemented processes and of providing information on potential areas of improvement to the model.
The MIPAS climatology of BrONO2: a test for stratospheric bromine chemistry
Authors: Höpfner Michael , Kirner Oliver , Wetzel Gerald , Sinnhuber Björn-Martin , Haenel Florian , Orphal Johannes , Ruhnke Roland , Stiller Gabriele , von Clarmann Thomas
Published: March 2021

Besides chlorine, bromine is the major halogen species affecting stratospheric ozone with both anthropogenic and natural sources. Despite the significantly lower concentrations of bromine in the atmosphere, its potential for ozone depletion is similar to that of chlorine. An important prerequisite for the effectiveness of bromine ozone destruction cycles versus those of chlorine is the larger instability of bromine reservoir gases, especially the faster photolysis of bromine nitrate (BrONO2) compared to chlorine nitrate (ClONO2). With BrONO2 abundances in the stratosphere available from observations, (1) homogeneous, heterogeneous as well as photochemical processes involving bromine as implemented in atmospheric models can be assessed, and (2) independent information on the total stratospheric bromine content can be gained which is important, e.g. to analyse the amount of short-lived bromocarbons entering the stratosphere.

The first detection of BrONO2 in the atmosphere had been achieved by analysis of infrared limb-emission spectra from the Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on the Envisat satellite (doi: 10.5194/acp-9-1735-2009). On availability of improved infrared cross-sections, this was followed by the analysis of the behaviour of BrONO2 during sunrise and sunset through MIPAS balloon observations (doi: 10.5194/acp-17-14631-2017). Here we present a novel dataset of global stratospheric BrONO2 distributions based on the recently available MIPAS version 8 dataset of calibrated level-1b spectra. The altitude profiles of BrONO2 volume mixing ratios are zonally averaged in 10° latitude and 3-day bins, separated between day- and night-time observations, with a vertical resolution of 3-8 km between 15 and 35 km altitude for the whole MIPAS period from July 2002 until April 2012. The typical characteristics of this new dataset will be discussed. Furthermore, we will compare it to a multi-annual simulation of the chemistry climate model EMAC. Specific differences between observation and model simulation of BrONO2 will be highlighted and discussed by means of sensitivity 1-d model runs. Finally, a time series of the derived stratospheric Bry content normalized to the time of the entry into the stratosphere on basis of MIPAS age-of-air information will be discussed with regard to estimated uncertainties as well as independent observations.
Climate change impact on water resources of the Desna river basin
Authors: Osypov Valeriy , Osadcha Natalia , Osadchyi Volodimir , Speka Oleh
Published: March 2021

A river basin management plan has to consider climate change impact because global warming influences the water cycle explicitly. For Ukraine, only continental-scale studies or(and) global hydrological models reflect the climate change impact on water resources. Such resolution is insufficient to develop confident adaptation strategies.

This study aims to assess changes in the river runoff, water flow formation, and soil water of the Desna river basin under future climate. The Desna supply Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, with fresh water. Moreover, soil water capacity across the basin is critical for crop production, the leading sector of the region.

The framework consists of the process-based ecohydrological SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and eight high-resolution (~12 km) regional climate models from the EURO-CORDEX project forced by RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios till the end of the XXI century. The SWAT model was successfully calibrated on water discharge from 12 gauges across the basin, then it was driven by each climate model to achieve a range of possible future scenarios. This approach better represents the hydrological processes and achieves more confident results than in previous studies.

Seven of eight models project warmer and wetter climate in the near future (2021-2050), and all models project the same in the far future (2071-2100). According to the ensemble mean, the air temperature will increase by 1.1°C under RCP4.5 and 1.2°C under RCP8.5 in the near future, and by 2.2°C under RCP4.5 and 4.2°C under RCP8.5 in the far future. Precipitation surplus will reach 5% (range from -6% to 16%) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 in the near future, and 8% (from 2% to 17%) under RCP4.5 and 14% (from 3% to 23%) under RCP8.5 in the far future. The discharge will likely increase (mean signal 6-8% in the near future and 10-14% in the far future) mostly due to higher groundwater inflow.

Intra-annual changes could be very unfavorable for plant growth because of lower soil water content and higher temperature stress during the vegetation period. The models agree about precipitation surplus during the cold period but, in summer, all directions of change are almost equally possible.

We consider that, among other vulnerabilities of the Desna basin, the water stress for crops will be the main issue because of the high dependence of the economy on crop production. Attention should also be paid to forest fires, eutrophication, and the concentration of organic substances in the stream
The Isthmus Project: Bridging Art, Science and Policy to Navigate Inequalities in the English Land System
Authors: Johnson Charise , Davies Alice , Donegal Lois , Sumrie Abbie , Hye Naz
Published: March 2021

The Isthmus Project is a tabletop game about the systems that control access to land in England.

The project is a collaboration between two existing collectives, Abby + Alice (A+A) and Solidaritree. A+A is a set and experience designer team specialising in interactive work. They were recently involved in creating Parklife, a game remembering parks during the lockdown, which was delivered to homes during the pandemic. Solidaritree is a creative environmental collective and inclusive community for underrepresented people in the environmental movement, who aim to change the assumptions around environmentalism by utilising art as a mechanism for promoting engagement with complex scientific and socio-environmental issues.

Isthmus will be a live experience that seeks to empower audiences across England to think critically about the pervasiveness of unequal land access and the resulting inequalities. The disparity of access and ownership of land is particularly stark in England, where land ownership is often inherited and the system favours the privileged – it actively upholds race and class inequality, from the homes available to the quality of the community infrastructure and surrounding environment. We will produce a discussion and learning tool, equipping audiences with the knowledge and resources to understand and reimagine a confusing and overwhelming system. Our initial aim is to engage young adults who are disenfranchised by a system they are learning to navigate, though the game will be suitable for and useful to a wider audience. Play will be a reflective and creative experience, with space for discussion and storytelling.

Our preliminary research focus for the game will incorporate scientific expertise from the geosciences as well as other STEM disciplines -including insights from the social sciences- to inform issues of social and environmental justice such as the environmental quality of air, land and water, proximity to food and resources, and the distribution of right-to-roam and freely accessible, quality green spaces. We will use systems mapping and modelling as a starting methodology with participating experts while exploring the best ways of translating this through gameplay.     

As audiences will be actively involved in the creative process through playtesting and feedback, we will also share effective context-dependent practices for respectful, mutually beneficial community partnerships and approaches for scientists looking to learn from and partner with artists.
Riftquakes: Recording and Modeling Seismic Signals of Rifting at Pine Island Glacier
Authors: Olinger Seth , Lipovsky Brad , Denolle Marine , Crowell Brendan
Published: March 2021

Nearly 50% of Antarctic ice discharge into the ocean occurs via iceberg calving (Depoorter et al 2013). Large tabular icebergs calve from ice shelves along large fractures called rifts, but the physics of rifting are poorly understood. How fast does rift propagation occur? Does the timing of rift fracture coincide with episodes of unusual ice motion? We investigate these questions using data from seismometers and GPS sensors deployed on Pine Island Glacier ice shelf (PIG) from January 2012 to December 2013 surrounding the calving of iceberg B31, which exceeded 700 km2 in size and calved in November 2013 along a large rift. Using TerraSAR-X imagery, we identify a large 7km-long rift that must have occurred between May 8 and May 11, 2012. We identify a large-amplitude seismic signal on May 9, 2012, which we attribute to the rifting event. The signal is broadband, containing energy at frequencies higher than 1 Hz and lower than 0.01 Hz, and exhibits pronounced dispersion characterized by high frequencies arriving before low frequencies. We use features of the May 9 “riftquake” to detect thousands of similar events, which we classify using K-shape clustering. We hypothesize that the observed signals are flexural gravity waves generated by a bending moment applied to the ice shelf during fracture. To test this hypothesis, we model the ice shelf as a dynamic beam supported by an inviscid, incompressible ocean. We find that the model reproduces observed riftquake waveforms when forced with a bending moment. We then use a Markov Chain Monte Carlo inversion to model representative events from each cluster of observed events. The inversion reveals that source durations on the order of seconds have the highest likelihood of explaining observed riftquake waveforms, suggesting that rifting occurs on elastic timescales. Finally, we locate the riftquakes and find that a swarm of events originating at the rift tip occurs just after the start of a period of acceleration at PIG, suggesting that the stress concentrations driving rift opening are influenced by changes in ice dynamics.
Intra-annual wood anatomical variability in European beech in response to elevation, management and climate in the Central Apennines, Italy
Authors: Miranda Jose Carlos , Calderaro Chiara , Cocozza Claudia , Lasserre Bruno , Tognetti Roberto , von Arx Georg
Published: March 2021

European beech (Fagus sylvatica) is a widespread and economically important temperate tree species in Europe. Expected future warmer temperatures and severe drought events, especially in Mediterranean areas, could affect vitality and productivity of beech stands that historically were under intensive management in those areas. In this study, we aim to address the lack of knowledge on intra-annual wood anatomical responses of beech to environmental variability and silvicultural practices by investigating three beech stands along an elevational gradient (1200 to 1950 m a.s.l.) in the Apennines (Italy). Several wood cell anatomical features were quantified on increment cores collected from five trees per stand. Results showed that high-elevation trees are hydraulically limited, and mid-elevation trees meet their hydraulic requirements with a different anatomical setup/configuration compared to low and high sites. Maximum xylem vessel size and theoretical hydraulic conductivity were associated with the temperatures of previous summer, previous winter and current summer as well as precipitation at the onset of radial growth and at time of maximum growth rates. Cessation of coppicing did not trigger main intra-annual differences in wood anatomical traits. Similarly, years with extreme climate (e.g. mean temperature and/or precipitation values above or below one standard deviation) did not have strong effects on intra-annual wood anatomical traits, maybe due to buffering through the several active sapwood rings present in beech. In conclusion, elevation had a higher impact on intra-annual wood anatomical traits in the studied trees than either cessation of silvicultural practices or years with extreme climate.
Making sense of flash drought: definitions, indicators, and where we go from here
Authors: Lisonbee Joel , Woloszyn Molly , Skumanich Marina
Published: March 2021

The topic of “Flash Drought” has rapidly gained attention within the research and drought management communities within the last decade. In preparation for a recent workshop on Flash Drought, the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) prepared a literature review to synthesize the research to-date (as of August 2020) and to provide a basis for future research on the topic. Specifically, this review is focused on documenting the range of definitions of "flash drought" that have been proposed by the research community. The term first appeared in the peer-reviewed literature in 2002, and by 2020, has become an area of active research. Within that 18-year span, 19 papers have provided measurable, defining criteria used to distinguish a flash drought from other drought. Of these papers, 11 distinguish flash drought as a rapid-onset or rapid-intensification drought event while seven distinguish flash drought as a short-term or short-lived, yet severe, drought event, and one paper considers flash drought as both a short-lived and rapid-onset event. Currently, there is no universally accepted definition or criteria for “flash drought,” despite recent research that has called for the research community to adopt the principle of rapid-intensification of drought conditions. This topic was further explored at the NIDIS-sponsored Flash Drought Workshop on 1-3 December 2020, where additional perspectives were shared about the key characteristics of flash drought that should inform its definition.  We will provide a review of the literature-derived definitions as well as a brief overview of this additional discussion.
Thermochemical structure of the lithosphere and upper mantle beneath Superior craton: Results from multi-observable probabilistic inversion
Authors: Dave Riddhi , Darbyshire Fiona Ann , Afonso Juan Carlos , Ali Khaled
Published: March 2021

We present new thermochemical models of the lithosphere and upper mantle beneath the Superior craton and surrounding regions. The study area is dominated by the Archean Superior Province, surrounded by Proterozoic orogenic belts such as the Trans-Hudson Orogen (THO) to the north and the Grenville Orogen to the southeast. Portions of the Rae and Hearne cratons north of the THO are also studied, as is the Mid-continent Rift to the south. Over a period of ∼3 Ga, the region has seen assembly and modification by accretionary and orogenic events, periods of rifting, and the influence of a number of mantle hotspots. Here, we use a probabilistic inverse method to jointly invert Rayleigh wave dispersion data, Vp data, geoid anomalies, surface heat flow, and absolute elevation. The output is a 3D model of the seismic, temperature, bulk density, and compositional structure of the whole lithosphere beneath the Superior craton.

The resulting model will provide new opportunities for joint studies of the structure of the upper mantle and will shed light on the thermal and compositional variations beneath the region. In this presentation, we will discuss the results from our model and several robust features that carry important geological and geodynamical implications for this region.
Using Modified Tessier Scheme to Metal Speciation in a Former Sewage Farm and interpretation of the sequential extraction by FTIR
Authors: Ramezany Shaghayegh , Sut-Lohmann Magdalena , Klos Friederike , Bonhage Alexander , Raab Thomas
Published: March 2021

We present a study conducted on a former sewage farm near Berlin, where long term sewage disposal onto agricultural land resulted in a high accumulation of potentially toxic metals. Based on a previous study, 30 samples collected within an area of a former sedimentation basin were selected (at the depth of 15-20 cm and one borehole up to 100 cm deep). The modified Tessier sequential extraction was applied in order to determine the partitioning of particulate potentially toxic metals (Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb, and Zn) into following fractions: 1) Exchangeable, 2) Bound to carbonate, 3) Bound to Fe/Mn oxides, 4) Bound to organic matter, and 5) Residual fraction. As a complementary analysis, diffuse reflectance infrared fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS) technique was used for the interpretation purposes.

The obtained results demonstrated different metal speciation in the studied soil; Pb was mostly discovered in the residual fraction (77%) followed by Cr (53%), Cu (8%), and Zn (5%), while Ni was not extracted in this fraction. The organic matter-bound is the dominant species of Cu (77%). However, Zn and Ni exhibit the highest affinity for Fe/Mn oxides fraction (55% and 39%, respectively). The average mobility factor followed the order Ni > Zn > Cu whereas Cr and Pb were not found as exchangeable nor in carbonate forms. Study also revealed that DRIFTS is applicable to interpret the sequential metal extraction, especially for the carbonates-bound, organic matter-bound, and residual fractions. The spectral changes in organic and inorganic regions can indicate the soil components’ dissociation is proportional to the extraction.
Comparing energetic particle loss processes in the magnetospheres of Jupiter and Saturn using Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) remote sensing
Authors: Mauk Barry , Allegrini Frederic , Bagenal Fran , Bolton Scott , Clark George , Connerney John , Gladstone Randy , Haggerty Dennis , Kollmann Peter , Mitchell Donald G. , Paranicas Chris , Roelof Edmond , Rymer Abigail
Published: March 2021

The dedicated Energetic Neutral Atom (ENA) imager on the Cassini spacecraft provided indispensable measurements of magnetospheric processes at Saturn. At Jupiter, Cassini provided only a few serendipitous ENA images as the spacecraft flew by Jupiter at large radial distances.  The Juno spacecraft, now in a polar orbit around Jupiter, carries no ENA camera, but the energetic particle JEDI instrument is sensitive to ENA’s with energies > 50 keV, provided there are few charged particles in the environment to mask their presence.  Even with limited ENA capabilities, the Juno mission has revealed important differences between Saturn and Jupiter with regard to how charged ions are lost from these magnetospheric systems. Specifically, a major contribution to ENA emissions at Jupiter come from Jupiter’s polar atmosphere. These ENAs likely arise from energetic ions that nearly precipitate in the auroral zone, only to mirror magnetically within the atmosphere where they charge exchange with atoms in Jupiter’s upper atmosphere. Cassini did not observe this precipitating component at Saturn despite the abundance of quality ENA measurements obtained there. We conclude that ion precipitation into Jupiter’s atmosphere is competitive with other loss processes.  In contrast, in the Saturn system, it is likely that losses associated with the dense neutral gas populations near the equator dominate the loss of energetic particles.
Severe drought events inducing soil moisture depletion and evaporative stress across Poland during 1981-2019
Authors: Somorowska Urszula
Published: March 2021

In recent decades, an increasing frequency and severity of meteorological and hydrological droughts has been observed in most parts of Europe, including Poland. This is due to (among other factors) increasing atmospheric water demand, longer rainless periods, especially during the growing season, and decreasing winter snow retention. In consequence, a widespread soil moisture drying cascades to evaporative stress limiting the ecosystems productivity. Thus, a quantification of such events might give a better understanding of underlying inter-connected mechanisms. A range of different single or multiple indices are already in use to quantify the drought duration, severity and intensity. Moreover, recently introduced dedicated software tools help to conduct the spatial-temporal analysis of drought propagation through the hydrological system. In this study, I try to answer the question when, where and how the most severe droughts have been occurring during the last four decades, and in particular in the 21st century. Resulting from the weather extremes (precipitation and air temperature anomalies), the cascading impacts are analyzed as they subsequently occur through a subsurface soil system, and then translate into the evaporative stress and vegetation health conditions. The underlying assumption is that relevant drought indices might be derived from the reanalysis products including variables such as precipitation, air temperature, evapotranspiration and corresponding soil moisture estimates. For a relatively large territory (in this case over  300 thousand sq. kilometers) such data provide consistent set of variables allowing the multi-year analysis. Here, I used recently developed ERA5-land data, validated against basic variables acquired from the E-OBS data. First, drought events were identified using standardized indices at the 1-3-6 month time scales. Then, following a threshold approach, Contiguous Drought Area analysis was conducted in each time step for the growing season. Subsequently, the imprints of soil moisture depletion were detected in vegetation health quantified independently by remote sensing indices at relevant resolution.  This study provides an evidence of moderate, severe and extreme drought occurrence. Recent biggest drought events occurred in 2003, 2005, 2006,  2015, 2018 and 2019 as a consequence of high monthly precipitation deficits reaching 100% of the long-term norm, and the air temperature 1-5 degree C higher as referred to average monthly  thermal conditions.
Preliminary results on the characterisation of the Guaycume fault (El Salvador) from geodetic and seismological data
Authors: Portela Fernández Juan José , Staller Vázquez Alejandra , Béjar-Pizarro Marta , Martínez-Díaz José Jesús , Álvarez-Gómez José Antonio , Hernández Douglas
Published: March 2021

The Guaycume fault is a right-lateral strike-slip structure located in Western El Salvador, within the El Salvador Fault Zone (ESFZ). The ESFZ consists of a strike-slip fault system extending through the Central American Volcanic Arc, on the western margin of the Chortís block, where the Cocos plate subducts under the Caribbean plate.

The Guaycume fault has been proposed as a possible source for the Mw 6.4 1917 El Salvador destructive earthquake, presenting high seismic potential in close proximity to San Salvador (Alonso-Henar et al., 2018). Its geomorphological expression has been clearly identified (Martinez-Diaz et al., 2016); however, few specific studies are currently published, and its behaviour and kinematics remain widely unknown. Notably, there is a lack of precise information about the amount of deformation that this fault currently absorbs of the westward movement (relative to the Chortís block) of the forearc sliver.

We process GNSS data in the area from 2007 to 2020 in order to retrieve the GNSS velocity field surrounding the Guaycume fault. We use these data to perform a thorough kinematic study, updating the previously existing slip rates (Staller et al., 2016). Combined with seismological data, this information allows us to understand the seismic cycle of the fault to a better extent, thus leading to a better comprehension of its seismic potential.
Exploiting infrasound detections to identify and track regional storms
Authors: Pásztor Marcell , Czanik Csenge , Bondár István
Published: March 2021

The infrasound array at Piszkés-tető, Hungary (PSZI) has been operational since May, 2017. Since then PSZI has collected hundreds of thousands detections. These include detections both from known and unknown sources. The categorisation of the detections would be important for future automation. The objective of this study is to identify and collect those detections that belong to local and regional storms and lightings. We present a methodology to identify storms by correlating lightning data from the Blitzortung database we consider as ground truth with the PMCC infrasound detections at PSZI. We also analyse the seasonal variations in the directions and distances of the detected storms.
Elevation-dependent drying signals under future climate change – a case study for Austria
Authors: Haslinger Klaus , Laaha Gregor , Schöner Wolfgang , Konrad Andre , Olefs Marc , Koch Roland , Abermann Jakob
Published: March 2021

In this contribution future changes of surface water availability over the Austrian domain is investigated. We use an ensemble of downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative under moderate mitigation (RCP4.5) and Paris agreement (RCP2.6) emission scenarios. The climatic water balance and its components (rainfall, snow melt, glacier melt and potential evapotranspiration) are used as indicators for surface water availability and we focus on different altitudinal classes (lowland, mountainous and high alpine) to depict a variety of processes in complex terrain. Apart from analysing the mean changes of these quantities we also pursue a hazard risk approach by estimating changes in return periods of drought events of a given magnitude as observed in the reference period. The results show in general wetter conditions over the course of the 21st century over Austria. Considering seasonal differences, winter and spring will be getting wetter due to an increase in precipitation along with a higher rainfall/snowfall fraction as a consequence of rising temperatures. In summer only little changes in the ensemble median of the climatic water balance are visible, hence uncertainties are large due to a considerable ensemble spread. However, by analysing changes in return periods of drought events, a robust signal of increasing risk of moderate and extreme drought events during summer is apparent. It emerges from an increase in interannual variability of the climatic water balance, which likely stems from intensified land-atmosphere coupling under climate change sustaining and intensifying spring preconditions towards even wetter or dryer summers.
Why does the climate response to greenhouse warming and greenhouse cooling differ? 
Authors: Kay Jennifer , Chalmers Jason
Published: March 2021

While the long-standing quest to constrain equilibrium climate sensitivity has resulted in intense scrutiny of the processes controlling idealized greenhouse warming, the processes controlling idealized greenhouse cooling have received less attention. Here, differences in the climate response to increased and decreased carbon dioxide concentrations are assessed in state-of-the-art fully coupled climate model experiments. One hundred and fifty years after an imposed instantaneous forcing change, surface global warming from a carbon dioxide doubling (abrupt-2xCO2, 2.43 K) is larger than the surface global cooling from a carbon dioxide halving (abrupt-0p5xCO2, 1.97 K). Both forcing and feedback differences explain these climate response differences. Multiple approaches show the radiative forcing for a carbon dioxide doubling is ~10% larger than for a carbon dioxide halving. In addition, radiative feedbacks are less negative in the doubling experiments than in the halving experiments. Specifically, less negative tropical shortwave cloud feedbacks and more positive subtropical cloud feedbacks lead to more greenhouse 2xCO2 warming than 0.5xCO2 greenhouse cooling. Motivated to directly isolate the influence of cloud feedbacks on these experiments, additional abrupt-2xCO2 and abrupt-0p5xCO2 experiments with disabled cloud-climate feedbacks were run. Comparison of these “cloud-locked” simulations with the original “cloud active” simulations shows cloud feedbacks help explain the nonlinear global surface temperature response to greenhouse warming and greenhouse cooling. Overall, these results demonstrate that both radiative forcing and radiative feedbacks are needed to explain differences in the surface climate response to increased and decreased carbon dioxide concentrations.
Future estuarine circulation patterns characterization based on a hydrodynamic models ensemble
Authors: Iglesias Isabel , Pinho José Luís , Bio Ana , Avilez-Valente Paulo , Melo Willian , Vieira José , Bastos Luísa , Veloso-Gomes Fernando
Published: March 2021

Estuarine regions are strategically important from an environmental, economic, and social point of view. To reduce vulnerability and increase resilience, it is crucial to know their dynamics that usually are poorly understood. Numerical models have proven to be an appropriate tool to improve this knowledge and simulate scenarios for future conditions. However, as the modelling results may be inaccurate, the application of the ensembles technique can be very useful in reducing possible uncertainties. In the EsCo-Ensembles project, this technique is proposed to improve hydrodynamic predictions for two Portuguese estuaries: Douro and Minho.

Two already validated numerical models (openTELEMAC-MASCARET and Delft3D), which have demonstrated their ability to accurately describe estuarine hydrodynamic patterns and water elevation for river flow in normal and extreme conditions, were applied. Several scenarios for climate change effects were defined including river flood peak flows for the 100 and 1000 year return periods and sea level extreme values for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5 in 2100.

The results demonstrated a clear difference between the hydrodynamic behaviour of the two estuaries. Model outcomes for the Minho estuary, which is dominated by the tide and therefore by oceanographic conditions, show a pronounced effect of rising sea levels on estuarine hydrodynamics. Whereas, for the Douro estuary, which is heavily dominated by the river flow, the effect of the sea level rise is hardly noticeable during flood events.

These and further results of this ongoing project are expected to (i) provide a complete hydrodynamic characterization of the two estuaries; (ii) evaluate future trends; (iii) estimate the flood risks associated with extreme events and (iv) demonstrate that the combined use of different models reduces their uncertainty and increases the confidence and consistency of the forecasts.

Acknowledgements: To the Strategic Funding UIDB/04423/2020 and UIDP/04423/2020 (FCT and ERDF) and to the project EsCo-Ensembles (PTDC/ECI-EGC/30877/2017, NORTE 2020, Portugal 2020, ERDF and FCT). The authors also want to acknowledge the data provided by EDP, IH and Confederación Hidrográfica Miño-Sil.
Features of changes in the sea ice and snow cover extents associated with temperature changes in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres in recent decades.
Authors: Parfenova Maria , Mokhov Igor I.
Published: March 2021

Quantitative estimates of the relationship between the interannual variability of Antarctic and Arctic sea ice and changes in the surface temperature in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres using satellitedata, observational data and reanalysis data for the last four decades (1980-2019) are obtained. The previously noted general increase in the Antarctic sea ice extent (up to 2016) (according to satellite data available only since the late 1970s), happening simultaneously with global warming and rapid decrease in the Arctic sea ice extent, is associated with the regional manifestation of natural climate fluctuations with periods of up to several decades. The results of correlation and crosswavelet analysis indicate significant coherence and negative correlation of hemispheric surface temperature with not only Arctic,but also Antarctic sea ice extent in recent decades.

Seasonal and regional peculiarities of snow cover sensitivity to temperature regime changes in the Northern Hemisphere are noted with an assessment of changes in recent decades. Peculiarities of snow cover variability in Eurasia and North America are presented. In particular, the peculiarities of changes in snow cover during the autumn seasons are noted.
Eastward Eddy Shedding of the Asian Summer Monsoon Anticyclone
Authors: Wang Xinyue , Randel William , Wu Yutian
Published: March 2021

Eastward eddy shedding of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) anticyclone has a large impact on the chemical composition of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) over the western Pacific. Here we investigate the dynamical mechanism of eastward eddy shedding in July and August using 41 years of the ERA5 6-hourly reanalysis data. We perform composite analyses of meteorological variables focusing on the eastward eddy shedding events with the presence of anticyclonic centers falling between 135•-140•E. The composited outgoing longwave radiation anomalies suggest enhanced convection near the Philippines Sea and the East China Sea one week beforehand. In the tropopause level, we see evident eastward propagating geopotential and meridional wind anomalies from the North Atlantic jet exit toward the western Pacific embedded along the extratropical westerly jet during day -10 to day 0. In the lower troposphere, we find that the geopotential anomalies aligned meridionally from the east Asian coast to the North Pacific to the northern North America during day -7 to day 0. The wave-activity flux is evaluated to identify the origin and propagation of the energy of the Rossby wave–like perturbation. In the UTLS we find a strong southeastward-pointing flux along 40•-50•N, resembling the Silk Road pattern. While in the lower troposphere, we also see a northeastward-pointing flux originating from tropical Philippine Sea across Japan to North America, resembling the Pacific-Japan pattern. Additional analysis is needed to study the relationship between the Silk Road pattern and the Pacific-Japan pattern.
Modeling and analysis of LOFAR scintillation data
Authors: Grzesiak Marcin , Pożoga Mariusz , Matyjasiak Barbara , Przepiórka Dorota , Rothkaehl Hanna , Budzińska Katarzyna , Atamaniuk Barbara
Published: March 2021

Scintillation of beacon satellite signals or distant cosmic radio emissions can provide interesting information on the cosmic medium itself, its internal spatial structure and basic evolution characteristics. LOFAR network gives consistent scintillation data with good coverage both in time and space and for the frequency range that goes down close to the local plasma frequency (LBA) being thus sensible to ionospheric plasma irregularities. LOFAR Scintillation measurements in the LBA range exhibit very interesting morphologies. Based on scintillation simulations using the phase screen method, including multiple scattering and refraction, we try to untangle the information contained in the full range (time, space, frequency) of LOFAR data and verify a number of hypotheses about the local structure of the ionosphere and its evolution.
Use of Veterinary Pharmaceuticals and Application via Manure Slurries to Soil in the Netherlands
Authors: Rakonjac Nikola , van der Zee Sjoerd , Wipfler Louise , Roex Erwin , Kros Hans
Published: March 2021

Veterinary Pharmaceuticals (VPs) are used world-wide to cure or prevent illness of animals, and increasingly investigated in view of emissions into the environment. It is known that environmental routes of VPs are complex while transport rates and persistence are not yet well established. Our investigation focuses on the route till application of VPs in (liquid) manure to soil. To characterize this for the Netherlands, we investigated national usage of 4 livestock sectors (dairy cow, veal calf, sow and fattening pig), as well as animal excretion rates prior and degradation during slurry manure storage. This has been done for 12 antibiotics, 4 antiparasitic drugs and one hormone. An inventory of data bases and taking into account data reliability, revealed for almost all substances a reduction of quantities administrated to the animals during the period 2015-2018. Literature review on excretion rates identified that there is still insufficient information, despite that those rates directly influence the VP portions in the environment. Our developed storage model showed that VPs concentrations during a period of 6 months could reduce by a factor as large as 60 and that the fractions present in that manure are highly dependent on animal type, quantity of produced manure and substance degradation rates. At the same time, our predicted after-storage concentrations were found to be comparable with the reported measurements available for some parts of the Netherlands. Considering that similar manure types are applied on arable lands and grasslands in considerable quantities in many other countries, our approach and results may represent a good foundation for further research on the environmental fate of VPs.
Weak at what scale? Insights from a late interseismic interplate fault
Authors: Boulton Carolyn , Menzies Catriona , Toy Virginia , Adam Ludmila , Townend John , Faulkner Daniel
Published: March 2021

The central section of the Alpine Fault accommodates a majority (~75%) of the total relative Pacific-Australian plate boundary motion on a single structure. For strain localization to occur to such an extent, the Alpine Fault must accommodate deformation at spatially and temporally averaged work rates that are lower than those required by hanging wall and footwall structures. Exhumation of a complete fault rock sequence (mylonites-cataclasites-gouges) from ~35 km depth in <5 million years provides us with an unparalleled opportunity to identify the weakening mechanisms underpinning the fault’s remarkable efficiency. We summarize the results of experimental, geochemical, geophysical, seismological, and geological research facilitated by the Deep Fault Drilling Project (DFDP).

Three main factors promote crustal-scale weakness on Alpine Fault: (1) high heat flow associated with rapid exhumation results in a shallow frictional-viscous transition at 8-10 km depth. In turn, temperature-sensitive creep (initially crystal-plasticity with an increasing contribution from grain size sensitive mechanisms during exhumation) can accommodate deformation at strain rates on the order of, and episodically higher than, 10–12s–1across a broad portion of the fault zone (from ~8 to 35 km depth). (2) Above the frictional-viscous transition, cataclastic processes associated with quasiperiodic large-magnitude earthquakes have permanently reduced the elastic moduli of damage zone rocks; and (3) cataclastic processes, combined with fluid-rock interactions, have formed low-permeability principal slip zone gouges and cataclasites. The near-ubiquitous presence of juxtaposed, low-permeability fault core gouges and cataclasites promotes dynamic (coseismic) weakening mechanisms such as thermal pressurization.

Clay mineral alteration reactions are commonly thought to result in fault zone weakening through a reduction in the static coefficient of friction, but fluid-rock interactions on the central Alpine Fault largely result in the precipitation of frictionally strong minerals such as calcite and, locally, K-feldspar. Although relatively narrow in down-dip extent, the brittle seismogenic zone of the central Alpine Fault is not misoriented with respect to the maximum principal stress when a full 3D stress analysis is performed. Moreover, the fault comprises frictionally strong gouges and cataclasites that can sustain high differential stresses. Combined, these factors have important implications for estimating dynamic stress drops and the extent to which future earthquake ruptures may propagate beneath the brittle-ductile transition, thereby increasing moment magnitude.
Spatial distribution of soil enrichment in As in the vicinities of historical mines – a case study of mining sites in the Sudetes, SW Poland 
Authors: Karczewska Anna , Szopka Katarzyna , Dradrach Agnieszka , Gałka Bernard
Published: March 2021

Spatial distribution of As in a surface soil layer was determined in three historical mining sites in the Sudetes where As ores were exploited and processed over the centuries: in Złoty Stok (formerly: Reichenstein), Radzimowice (Altes Berg) and Czarnów (Evelinensgluck). Of those sites, Złoty Stok that operated until 1962, is the largest one. Thirteen patches of land situated in all those sites (6, 4, and 3, respectively) were chosen for analysis, each with an area of 2-5 hectares. They differed in terms of sources of soil enrichment in As, land topography and various types of land use or habitats. Both soils that developed on waste rock dumps and tailings, as well as those in their surroundings were examined. Simplified maps of As concentrations in soils were drawn based on 15-20 screening points located in each area. Arsenic distribution in soils in a mini-scale was examined by collecting multiple samples from several spots (each with an area of 1-10 m2). Gangue rock material disposed on the dumps was highly heterogeneous and locally contained over 1% of As. Total As concentrations in soil samples varied in a broad range: 72–193000 mg/kg, and the highest local enrichment in As was identified in alluvial soils along a stream affected by acid mine drainage. Various factors responsible for As concentrations in soils, including the amounts inherited from the parent rocks as well as various processes of redistribution, transport and secondary enrichment were discusses. Related environmental risk associated with a likely processes of further As mobilization and transport has been assessed with considering various scenarios. Additionally, soil enrichment and contamination indices, commonly used in the literature, such as geoaccumulation index Igeo, enrichment factor EF according to Sutherland and Nemerow pollution index PI, were calculated for each of the areas under study. Their ambiguity and limited suitability for the assessment of soil contamination with As were critically discussed.   

This research was funded by the National Science Centre of Poland; Project No. 2016/21/B/ST10/02221