bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Associations between health-related quality of life and measures of adiposity among Filipino adults
Authors: Capuno Joseph , Kraft Aleli , Calicdan Kayleen Gene , O’Donnell Owen
Published: October 2022

Objective

Estimate associations between the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and adiposity in a low-income population.

Methods

In a cluster random sample of 3796 Filipinos aged 40–70 years in Nueva Ecija province, we measured body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and six dimensions of HRQoL using the 20-item Short Form Health Survey. We stratified by sex and used nonparametric regression to graph mean HRQoL in each dimension by BMI, WC, and WHR. We used ordinary least squares regression to estimate differences in each HRQoL dimension by categories of BMI, WC, and WHR adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics and smoking.

Results

Mean HRQoL was lowest for health perception (Males: 67.5 (SD = 15.9); Females: 66.7 (15.8)) and highest for role functioning (Males: 97.5 (12.9); Females: 97.4 (13.3)). Mean (SD) values of BMI, WC, and WHR were 22.1 (3.6), 84.8 cm (9.5), and 0.9 (0.1), respectively for males, and 23.7 (4.2), 86.5 cm (10.2), and 0.9 (0.1), respectively, for females. There was no evidence that higher BMI was associated with lower HRQoL. Adjusted mean social functioning was 4.92 (p = 0.076) higher for males with high BMI risk (8.6% prevalence) compared with acceptable BMI risk (50.3%). Mean social functioning was 3.61 (p = 0.012) and 5.48 (p = 0.017) lower for females with high WC (44.7%) and WHR (83.1%), respectively, compared with those with low WC (23.8%) and WHR (3.6%). Mean physical functioning was lower by 2.70 (p = 0.204) and 1.07 (p = 0.198) for males and females, respectively, with high compared with low WC. Mean physical functioning was 3.93 (p = 0.037) lower for males with high (7.6%) compared with low (38.8%) WHR. Mean role functioning was 1.09 (p = 0.124) and 2.46 (p = 0.158) lower for males with borderline and high WHR, respectively.

Conclusions

There is discordance between future adiposity-related health risk and current experience of HRQoL.
Identification of shared bacterial strains in the vaginal microbiota of related and unrelated reproductive-age mothers and daughters using genome-resolved metagenomics
Authors: France Michael T. , Brown Sarah E. , Rompalo Anne M. , Brotman Rebecca M. , Ravel Jacques
Published: October 2022

It has been suggested that the human microbiome might be vertically transmitted from mother to offspring and that early colonizers may play a critical role in development of the immune system. Studies have shown limited support for the vertical transmission of the intestinal microbiota but the derivation of the vaginal microbiota remains largely unknown. Although the vaginal microbiota of children and reproductive age women differ in composition, the vaginal microbiota could be vertically transmitted. To determine whether there was any support for this hypothesis, we examined the vaginal microbiota of daughter-mother pairs from the Baltimore metropolitan area (ages 14–27, 32–51; n = 39). We assessed whether the daughter’s microbiota was similar in composition to their mother’s using metataxonomics. Permutation tests revealed that while some pairs did have similar vaginal microbiota, the degree of similarity did not exceed that expected by chance. Genome-resolved metagenomics was used to identify shared bacterial strains in a subset of the families (n = 22). We found a small number of bacterial strains that were shared between mother-daughter pairs but identified more shared strains between individuals from different families, indicating that vaginal bacteria may display biogeographic patterns. Earlier-in-life studies are needed to demonstrate vertical transmission of the vaginal microbiota.
Adiposity in preadolescent children: Associations with cardiorespiratory fitness
Authors: Castro Nicholas , Bates Lauren C. , Zieff Gabriel , Pagan Lassalle Patricia , Faulkner James , Lark Sally , Hamlin Michael , Skidmore Paula , Signal T. Leigh , Williams Michelle A. , Higgins Simon , Stoner Lee
Published: October 2022

Lifestyle factors contribute to childhood obesity risk, however it is unclear which lifestyle factors are most strongly associated with childhood obesity. The purpose of this cross-sectional study was to simultaneously investigate the associations among dietary patterns, activity behaviors, and physical fitness with adiposity (body fat %, fat mass, body mass index [BMI], and waist to hip ratio) in preadolescent children. Preadolescent children (N = 392, 50% female, age: 9.5 ± 1.1year, BMI: 17.9 ± 3.3 kg/m2) were recruited. Body fat (%) and fat mass (kg) were measured with bioelectrical impedance analysis. Cardiorespiratory fitness (VO2 max), muscular strength (hand-grip strength), activity, sleep, and dietary pattern was assessed. Multivariable analysis revealed that cardiorespiratory fitness associated most strongly with all four indicators of adiposity (body fat (%) (β = -0.2; p < .001), fat mass (β = -0.2; p < .001), BMI (β = -0.1; p < .001) and waist to hip ratio (β = -0.2; p < .001). Additionally, fruit and vegetable consumption patterns were associated with body fat percentage, but the association was negligible (β = 0.1; p = 0.015). Therefore, future interventions should aim to promote the use of cardiorespiratory fitness as a means of reducing the obesity epidemic in children.
On the relationship between conspiracy theory beliefs, misinformation, and vaccine hesitancy
Authors: Enders Adam M. , Uscinski Joseph , Klofstad Casey , Stoler Justin
Published: October 2022

At the time of writing, nearly one hundred published studies demonstrate that beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories and misinformation are negatively associated with COVID-19 preventive behaviors. These correlational findings are often interpreted as evidence that beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation are exogenous factors that shape human behavior, such as forgoing vaccination. This interpretation has motivated researchers to develop methods for “prebunking,” “debunking,” or otherwise limiting the spread of conspiracy theories and misinformation online. However, the robust literatures on conspiracy theory beliefs, health behaviors, and media effects lead us to question whether beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation should be treated as exogenous to vaccine hesitancy and refusal. Employing U.S. survey data (n = 2,065) from July 2021, we show that beliefs in COVID-19 conspiracy theories and misinformation are not only related to COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and refusal, but also strongly associated with the same psychological, social, and political motivations theorized to drive COVID-19 vaccine hesitancy and refusal. These findings suggest that beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation might not always be an exogenous cause, but rather a manifestation of the same factors that lead to vaccine hesitancy and refusal. We conclude by encouraging researchers to carefully consider modeling choices and imploring practitioners to refocus on the worldviews, personality traits, and political orientations that underlie both health-related behaviors and beliefs in conspiracy theories and misinformation.
Infection with SARS-CoV-2 is associated with menstrual irregularities among women of reproductive age
Authors: Cherenack Emily M. , Salazar Ana S. , Nogueira Nicholas F. , Raccamarich Patricia , Rodriguez Violeta J. , Mantero Alejandro M. , Marsh Allison , Gerard Sophia , Maddalon Marissa , Jones Deborah L. , Klatt Nichole R. , Alcaide Maria L.
Published: October 2022

Background

Biological and psychological mechanisms may be responsible for menstrual irregularities occurring among women during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Study design

From January 2019 to September 2021, women (18- to 45-years-old and not using hormonal contraception) were recruited in Miami-Dade County, Florida. Cross-sectional, self-report surveys collected data on menstrual irregularities, COVID-19 vaccination, stress, depression, and loneliness. A EUA approved rapid test assay using whole blood measured SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. Chi-square and Fisher’s exact tests described menstrual irregularities among women recruited before versus after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and with detectable versus undetectable SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies. A logistic regression examined the relationship between the presence of SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies and menstrual irregularities controlling for age, stress, depression, and loneliness.

Results

Among 182 women enrolled, 73 were enrolled after pandemic onset, and 36 provided vaccination data. Having detectable SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies was associated with a higher percentage of menstrual irregularities among unvaccinated women (0% vs. 39%, p = .026) and among all women regardless of vaccination status (31% vs. 5%; p = .005). Adjusting for age and psychological variables, the odds of menstrual irregularities were 7.03 times (95% CI [1.39, 35.60]; p = .019) higher among women with detectable antibodies compared to women without detectable antibodies. Neither enrollment date, age, nor psychological factors were associated to menstrual irregularities.

Conclusions

Biological mechanisms related to SARS-CoV-2 infection may be responsible for irregular menstruation and should be further examined to mitigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on women’s health.
Epidemiological measures for assessing the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2-outbreak: Simulation study about bias by incomplete case-detection
Authors: Brinks Ralph , Küchenhoff Helmut , Timm Jörg , Kurth Tobias , Hoyer Annika
Published: October 2022

During the SARS-CoV-2 outbreak, several epidemiological measures, such as cumulative case-counts (CCC), incidence rates, effective reproduction numbers (Reff) and doubling times, have been used to inform the general public and to justify interventions such as lockdown. It has been very likely that not all infectious people have been identified during the course of the epidemic, which lead to incomplete case-detection. We compare CCC, incidence rates, Reff and doubling times in the presence of incomplete case-detection. For this, an infection-age-structured SIR model is used to simulate a SARS-CoV-2 outbreak followed by a lockdown in a hypothetical population. Different scenarios about temporal variations in case-detection are applied to the four measures during outbreak and lockdown. The biases resulting from incomplete case-detection on the four measures are compared in terms of relative errors. CCC is most prone to bias by incomplete case-detection in all of our settings. Reff is the least biased measure. The possibly biased CCC may lead to erroneous conclusions in cross-country comparisons. With a view to future reporting about this or other epidemics, we recommend including and placing an emphasis on Reff in those epidemiological measures used for informing the general public and policy makers.
Machine learning predicts the short-term requirement for invasive ventilation among Australian critically ill COVID-19 patients
Authors: Karri Roshan , Chen Yi-Ping Phoebe , Burrell Aidan J. C. , Penny-Dimri Jahan C. , Broadley Tessa , Trapani Tony , Deane Adam M. , Udy Andrew A. , Plummer Mark P. ,   for the SPRINT-SARI Australia Investigators
Published: October 2022

Objective(s)

To use machine learning (ML) to predict short-term requirements for invasive ventilation in patients with COVID-19 admitted to Australian intensive care units (ICUs).

Design

A machine learning study within a national ICU COVID-19 registry in Australia.

Participants

Adult patients who were spontaneously breathing and admitted to participating ICUs with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 from 20 February 2020 to 7 March 2021. Patients intubated on day one of their ICU admission were excluded.

Main outcome measures

Six machine learning models predicted the requirement for invasive ventilation by day three of ICU admission from variables recorded on the first calendar day of ICU admission; (1) random forest classifier (RF), (2) decision tree classifier (DT), (3) logistic regression (LR), (4) K neighbours classifier (KNN), (5) support vector machine (SVM), and (6) gradient boosted machine (GBM). Cross-validation was used to assess the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, and specificity of machine learning models.

Results

300 ICU admissions collected from 53 ICUs across Australia were included. The median [IQR] age of patients was 59 [50–69] years, 109 (36%) were female and 60 (20%) required invasive ventilation on day two or three. Random forest and Gradient boosted machine were the best performing algorithms, achieving mean (SD) AUCs of 0.69 (0.06) and 0.68 (0.07), and mean sensitivities of 77 (19%) and 81 (17%), respectively.

Conclusion

Machine learning can be used to predict subsequent ventilation in patients with COVID-19 who were spontaneously breathing and admitted to Australian ICUs.
Excitation of “forbidden” guided-wave plasmon polariton modes via direct reflectance using a low refractive index polymer coupling layer
Authors: Marquis Colin D. , McCarley Lindze M. , Pollock Amy L. , Cutcher Acamaro S. , Cannella Max T. , Smith Tierra L. , Larsen Michael B. , Peden Brandon M. , Johnson Brad L. , Leger Janelle M.
Published: October 2022

A surface plasmon polariton (SPP) is an excitation resulting from the coupling of light to a surface charge oscillation at a metal-dielectric interface. The excitation and detection of SPPs is foundational to the operating mechanism of a number of important technologies, most of which require SPP excitation via direct reflectance, commonly achieved via Attenuated Total Reflection (ATR) using the Kretschmann configuration. As a result, the accessible modes are fundamentally high-loss “leaky modes,” presenting a critical performance barrier. Recently, our group provided the first demonstration of “forbidden,” or guided-wave plasmon polariton modes (GW-PPMs), collective modes of a MIM structure with oscillatory electric field amplitude in the central insulator layer with up to an order of magnitude larger propagation lengths than those of traditional SPPs. However, in that work, GW-PPMs were accessed by indirect reflectance using Otto configuration ATR, making them of limited applied relevance. In this paper, we demonstrate a technique for direct reflectance excitation and detection of GW-PPMs. Specifically, we replace the air gap used in traditional Otto ATR with a low refractive index polymer coupling layer, mirroring a technique previously demonstrated to access Long-Range Surface Plasmon Polariton modes. We fit experimental ATR data using a robust theoretical model to confirm the character of the modes, as well as to explore the potential of this approach to enable advantageous propagation lengths. The ability to excite GW-PPMs using a device configuration that does not require an air gap could potentially enable transformative performance enhancements in a number of critical technologies.
Rate of publication hastens, but number of publications slows academic promotion
Authors: Pickett Jackson B. , Savala Paul
Published: October 2022

Openings for an assistant professor often attract a hundred or more applicants. This allows hiring committees to select highly productive candidates based on their number of publications. Applicants with more rapid publication would be hired with little or no postgraduate experience, but those with slower rates of publication would need more postgraduate experience. Our results show an association of more postgraduate experience, slower rates of publication, a smaller research group, and slower promotion when years are measured from PhD granting; conversely little or no postgraduate experience is generally associated with more rapid publication, a larger research group, and faster promotion. These results suggest the unexpected result that the number and rate of publication have opposite effects on the years from PhD granting to promotion which parametric survival analysis using a log-logistic distribution with gamma frailty confirmed. Statistical analysis revealed that number and rate of publication are reciprocal suppressor variables which were individually weaker predictors of years to promotion, but much more powerful when combined. Intuitively, this is probably because number and rate of publication contain information about other variables with: (1) number of publications being associated with more postgraduate experience, a smaller research group, and slower rates of publication; and (2) rate of publication being associated with a larger research group, and less postgraduate experience. Further, we found that promotion committees closely follow institutional tenure policy requiring promotion a fixed number of years after hiring as an assistant professor which may partially explain why promotion committees fail adjust the number and rate of publication for research group size as fairness in promotion might favor. Our results suggest that both postgraduate experience and research group size influence a professor’s career.
Association between the morphokinetics of in-vitro-derived bovine embryos and the transcriptomic profile of the derived blastocysts
Authors: Yaacobi-Artzi Shira , Kalo Dorit , Roth Zvi
Published: October 2022

The time-lapse system is a non-invasive method that enables a continuous evaluation through embryo development. Here, we examined the association between the morphokinetics of the developing embryo and the transcriptomic profile of the formed blastocysts. Bovine oocytes were matured and fertilized in vitro; then, the putative zygotes were cultured in an incubator equipped with a time-lapse system. Based on the first-cleavage pattern, embryos were categorized as normal or abnormal (68.5±2.2 and 31.6±2.3%, respectively; P<0.001). A cleaved embryo was defined as normal when it first cleaved into two equal blastomeres; it was classified as synchronous or asynchronous according to its subsequent cleavages. An abnormal pattern was defined as direct, unequal, or reverse cleavage. Direct cleavage was classified as division from one cell directly into three or more blastomeres; unequal cleavage was classified as division that resulted in asymmetrically sized blastomeres; and reverse cleavage of the first division was classified as reduced number of blastomeres from two to one. Of the normally cleaving embryos, 60.2±3.1% underwent synchronous cleavage into 4, 8, and 16 blastomeres, and 39.7±3.1% cleaved asynchronously (P<0.001). The blastocyte formation rate was lower for the synchronously vs. the asynchronously cleaved embryos (P<0.03). The abnormally cleaved embryos showed low competence to develop to blastocysts, relative to the normally cleaved embryos (P<0.001). Microarray analysis revealed 895 and 643 differentially expressed genes in blastocysts that developed from synchronously and asynchronously cleaved embryos, respectively, relative to those that developed from directly cleaved embryos. The genes were related to the cell cycle, cell differentiation, metabolism, and apoptosis. About 180 differentially expressed genes were found between the synchronously vs. the asynchronously cleaved embryos, related to metabolism and the apoptosis mechanism. We provide the first evidence indicating that an embryo’s morphokinetics is associated with the transcriptome profile of the derived blastocyst, which might be practically relevant for the embryo transfer program.
Adding links on minimum degree and longest distance strategies for improving network robustness and efficiency
Authors: Chujyo Masaki , Hayashi Yukio
Published: October 2022

Many real-world networks characterized by power-law degree distributions are extremely vulnerable against malicious attacks. Therefore, it is important to obtain effective methods for strengthening the robustness of the existing networks. Previous studies have been discussed some link addition methods for improving the robustness. In particular, two effective strategies for selecting nodes to add links have been proposed: the minimum degree and longest distance strategies. However, it is unclear whether the effects of these strategies on the robustness are independent or not. In this paper, we investigate the contributions of these strategies to improving the robustness by adding links in distinguishing the effects of degrees and distances as much as possible. Through numerical simulation, we find that the robustness is effectively improved by adding links on the minimum degree strategy for both synthetic trees and real networks. As an exception, only when the number of added links is small, the longest distance strategy is the best. Conversely, the robustness is only slightly improved by adding links on the shortest distance strategy in many cases, even combined with the minimum degree strategy. Therefore, enhancing global loops is essential for improving the robustness rather than local loops.
A highly effective therapeutic ointment for treating corals with black band disease
Authors: Eaton Katherine R. , Clark Abigail S. , Curtis Katie , Favero Mike , Hanna Holloway Nathaniel , Ewen Kristen , Muller Erinn M.
Published: October 2022

Infectious disease outbreaks are a primary contributor to coral reef decline worldwide. A particularly lethal disease, black band disease (BBD), was one of the first coral diseases reported and has since been documented on reefs worldwide. BBD is described as a microbial consortium of photosynthetic cyanobacteria, sulfate-reducing and sulfide-oxidizing bacteria, and heterotrophic bacteria and archaea. The disease is visually identified by a characteristic dark band that moves across apparently healthy coral tissue leaving behind bare skeleton. Despite its virulence, attempts to effectively treat corals with BBD in the field have been limited. Here, we developed and tested several different therapeutic agents onPseudodiploriaspp. corals with signs of active BBD at Buck Island Reef National Monument in St. Croix, USVI. A variety of therapies were tested, including hydrogen peroxide-based treatments, ointment containing antibiotics, and antiviral/antimicrobial-based ointments (referred to as CoralCure). The CoralCure ointments, created by Ocean Alchemists LLC, focused on the dosing regimen and delivery mechanisms of the different active ingredients. Active ingredients included carbamide peroxide, Lugol’s iodine solution, along with several proprietary essential oil and natural product blends. Additionally, the active ingredients had different release times based on treatment: CoralCure A-C had a release time of 24 hours, CoralCure D-F had a release time of 72 hours. The ointments were applied directly to the BBD lesion. Also, jute rope was saturated with a subset of these CoralCure ointment formulations to assist with adhesion. These ropes were then applied to the leading edge of the BBD lesion for one week to ensure sufficient exposure. Corals were revisited approximately three to five months after treatment application to assess disease progression rates and the presence/absence of lesions—the metrics used to quantify the efficacy of each treatment. Although most of the treatments were unsuccessful, two CoralCure rope formulations—CoralCure D rope and CoralCure E rope, eliminated the appearance of BBD in 100% of the corals treated. As such, these treatments significantly reduced the likelihood of BBD occurrence compared to the untreated controls. Additionally, lesions treated with these formulations lost significantly less tissue compared with controls. These results provide the mechanisms for an easily employable method to effectively treat a worldwide coral disease.
Alphonsa Rodriguez Jesusen Compagnhaco aitaren guiristhinho perfeccioniaren praticaren pparte bat (1782). Edizioa eta azterketa
Authors: Camino Iñaki
Published: October 2022

Hogeita hamar urte badu frantsesetik itzuli liburu honen bigarren mendeurrena Euskaltzaindiak Donaixti-Ibarren ospatu zuenetik; harako hartan Piarres Lafittek Ibarre herriko aspaldiko apez Lopezen itzulpenak tesina bat on lukeela adierazi zuen (1982: 442). Egia esan, lehenago ere liburu honetako euskarak azterketak ukan ditu, bereziki zuketaren tratamendu gramatikalaren agerpen zabalagatik: Karl Boudak (1948) eta Xarles Videgainek (1983) Pratica-ko zuketa alokutiboaz ikerketak egin dituzte; Lino Akesolok Lopezen aditz izenari heldu zion llabur (1982) eta lehenago, Andres de Lizarzak hainbat ohar egin zuen liburuko alderdi lexikoa zerbaixka argitzeko (1967).Halaz ere, ez zegoen itzulpen interesgarri eta luze honen argitalpenik eta hori da gure eginahalaren lehen helburua, xvii. mende hasierako aszetika liburu honen xviii. mende bukaerako euskal itzulpenaren edizio zaindu bat irakurleen esku uztea, ahalaz aurkezpen zabala eta ohar argigarriak eginez.
Managed grazing as wildfire risk reduction. A case study in Castilla - La Mancha, province of Cuenca (Spain)
Authors: Quesada-Fernández Clara , Mateo-Fernández José Félix
Published: October 2022

Controlled grazing is a useful tool to manage and control fuel in the bush and reduce the risk of forest fires. In Castilla-La Mancha, an eminently agrarian region with a vast forest area, forest management of fuels has traditionally been carried out by crushing or burning waste in piles. Recently, this work is beginning to be carried out through prescribed burning. In recent years, experimental efforts have also been made to reintroduce controlled grazing to eliminate forest fuels through continuous browsing of forest vegetation in fire defense areas, previously carried out through preventive forestry work, avoiding or delaying the maintenance of these areas, assuming significant economic savings. Effectively reducing fuel, using local cattle ranches as a resource for fixing the population in the territory and recovering some autochthonous breeds of cattle contributes to the rural development of these regions of emptied Spain and helps to mitigate climate change. The present work analyzes the results of using cattle for the maintenance of the defense areas of Castilla-La Mancha with the results in the province of Cuenca, in approximately 1,100 annual hectares of management through managed grazing.
Modelling wildfire firebrand accumulation in front of walls perpendicular to the wind
Authors: Dossi Simona , Rein Guillermo
Published: October 2022

Windblown embers, known as firebrands, are generated in large numbers during wildfires and can ignite buildings kilometers away from their origin. Firebrands are often the leading cause of building ignition in the wildland-urban interface. Firebrands can either ignite buildings directly by landing on or inside the structure, or indirectly by igniting adjacent vegetation. Studies have investigated firebrand generation from various fuels, wind-driven transport, and ignition mechanisms on different materials and building features. Less research has been conducted on how firebrands deposit and accumulate around buildings; this knowledge is critical in designing buildings safer to firebrand ignition. Here, we address this less understood part of firebrand processes: landing and accumulation. A computation fluid dynamic Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) model simulating published experimental data by Suzuki and Manzello measuring firebrand accumulation region in front of a vertical wall under firebrand exposure created with the NIST Dragon and varying wind speeds (4 m/s - 10 m/s) (Suzuki and Manzello, 2017). The simulated accumulation areas in front of the wall are compared to the experimental observations. The height, width, and thickness of the wall and wind speeds are varied, and the accumulation patterns and sizes are studied to learn the critical design parameters affecting firebrand accumulation. Here we present the set up and vision for this project, and preliminary results from the simulations. FDS measurements do not yet agree with experimental results; authors are working on improving the model planning its potential for investigations once validated.
Numerical and experimental study on the moisture content of a pine tree
Authors: Conceição Eusébio , Gomes João , Lúcio Mª Manuela , Viegas Domingos Xavier , Viegas Mª Teresa
Published: October 2022

This paper refers to a numerical study of the three-dimensional design geometry and analysis of the thermal response of a pine tree. The pine tree thermal response numerical model is based on energy balance integral equations for the pine tree elements and mass balance integral equation for the water in the pine tree elements. The simulation performed considers the heat conduction through the tree elements, heat exchanges by convection between the external tree surfaces and the environment, heat exchanges by radiation between the flame and the external tree surfaces and water heat loss by evaporation from the tree to the environment. In the mass balance integral equation is considered the internal water generation and mass diffusion, in the interior, and the convection and evaporation, in the external surface. The three-dimensional design geometry, applying mesh generation, is used to evaluate the view factors between the virtual pine tree and a fire front. The three-dimensional pine tree model is constituted by 1039 cylindrical elements to represent its trunk, branches and leaves. The tree are placed nearby the fire front, which represents the forest fire. The surface temperature of both bodies is analysed on a steady-state and transient regime.
A study on the standard scenario and training evaluation system for the development of virtual forest firefighters training system
Authors: Kim Donghyun
Published: October 2022

This study relates to the establishment of a virtual reality training system that can reproduce various forest fire situations in a limited indoor space and evaluate the training results quantitatively for fire suppression and evacuation situations of forest fire extinguishers. For individual and team training of firefighters in a virtual space, it is necessary to create SOP-based various forest fire scenario scenarios and training evaluation tools for the development of virtual training contents S/W. In this study, first, a method for creating a standard scenario for virtual reality forest fire extinguishing training was presented and a standard scenario was presented. Scenarios were standardized to be prepared according to 4 types of forest fire environmental data, 4 types of firefighting environmental data, and training difficulty level. Forest fire environmental data was defined as 4 types of forest fire site spatial environment, forest fuel environment, meteorological environment, and fire environment. It was made possible to set the difficulty level of fire drills using 8 types of scenario configuration data. In the survey on the suitability of firefighters for the standard scenario content, it was found to be 95.8Â±2.5%. In the second scenario-based training competency evaluation tool, forest fire extinguisher CTA (Cognitive Task Analysis) job analysis was conducted to systemize the evaluation items for task performance, mutual cooperation and reporting system for each scenario staged event. Using the CTA model, job structure analysis was conducted on the professional characteristics, procedural skills, best mission performance, and cognitive process for maximizing the training effect of the firefighters. Based on this, a virtual training evaluation item and evaluation score table for each firefighter according to the scenario-based mission performance stage were prepared. In the evaluation of the suitability of the firefighters for each item's evaluation content and points, it was found to be 93.5Â±2.5% and 97.5Â±2.5%, respectively.
The last landscape gardeners: Incident analysis of traditional burns in Portugal
Authors: Oliveira Emanuel , Lobo-do-Vale Raquel , Colaço Conceição
Published: October 2022

In Portugal, there are countless historic and legislative references about fire use in rural areas. This popular use of fire to manage the huddled of agricultural and forestry leftovers and small burns to clean the farmed lands continues nowadays, to be used in rural environments. However, these environments are becoming depopulated, with aged populations which are often isolated. Every year, in the social media, there are news about fatalities or injuries from elder people when using fire in the landscape. In 2018 the number of incidents were much higher than usual. For that, the objective of this work was to identify which were the factors that could explain this anomaly. To obtain a systematic data of the incidents, a thorough analysis of the regional and national newspapers, both in paper and online, was performed from the years 2008 to 2020. Variables like date, place, sex, age and other were gathered. All the incidents variables were complemented with meteorological data associated with wildfire risk, sociodemographic variables and the legislative context. From 2008 to 2020 there were 44 incidents, with 89% of fatalities. The anomaly of incidents in 2018 corresponded to 45% of cases. Most of the incidents (from 2008 to 2020) happened with elder (75%) and male (82%) people. The predominant months of occurrence were April and October particularly in the year 2018. The majority of fatalities (69%) occurred when the victim was burning alone. Legislative, social and meteorological analysis showed that the most probable factor that lead to the incidents anomaly was the extreme pressure to manage the vegetation, held by police forces, legislation and fines value if you didnâ€™t comply.
Wildfire and evacuation simulation: An overview of research, development, and practice
Authors: Beyki Shahab Mohammad , Santiago Aldina , Laím Luís , Craveiro Helder D.
Published: October 2022

Wildfires have been growing dramatically over the past decades due to climate changes, global warming, droughts and forest landscape, and vegetation changes. Increasing losses due to wildfires have been a significant concern; therefore, protective measures are being taken to mitigate the risk of health hazards and even deaths. This paper assesses and reviews the approaches to fire spread and propagation simulation to predict the fire spread characteristics. These simulations are essential to determine the evacuation necessity and requirement. The assessment of evacuation triggers is investigated according to the available literature and studies on simulation and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) modeling of wildfire and fire spread are reviewed. In addition, the modeling and simulation of evacuation decisions, residents' evacuation, traffic patterns, and the evacuation trigger models are presented and discussed. All mentioned simulations are modeled on different scales, i. e. microscale, mesoscale and macroscale, based on the desired criteria assessment of each case study. These approaches are distinguished basically by their ability to model an area of certain extent, i. e. scale, and their accuracy in attaining the desired, analysis, data and prediction, i. e. detail level, and selecting one approach over the others is always a trade-off between these two criteria.
Arctic fires and smouldering combustion: influence of soil and air temperature on fire spread
Authors: Christensen Eirik G , Hu Yuqi , Santoso Muhammad A. , Cui Wuquan , Rein Guillermo
Published: October 2022

Peat fires smoulder for long periods (weeks to months) and releasing large amount of ancient carbon that have been stored for millennia in the organic soils. Recent wildfires in Arctic regions have burned unprecedented swaths of land, demonstrating a detrimental change in the arctic fire regime and highlighting the vulnerability of these biomes to climate change. This work aims to experimentally study Arctic peat fires in the lab scale by using an experimental rig with adjustable air temperature and bottom boundary of the peat fire which imitate the condition of permafrost in the Arctic. The initial temperature of the peat sample varied from -13 to 18Â°C, and the moisture content (MC) was varied from 50 to 120% in dry-mass basis. The experimental results show that smouldering can be sustained with soil temperatures below the freezing point of water. The range of condition temperature in this study was found to insignificantly affect spread rate but have profound effect on the depth of burn, increasing by up to 66% as bottom boundary decreased from 21 to -7Â°C. We found that the critical moisture content of ignition under cold condition in this work is between 110 and 120% (dry-mass basis), and is lower than the literature in room temperature (160%). At high moisture content (â‰¥100% MC), smouldering was weakly spreading under air temperature of ~12Â°C, initial peat temperature of -11Â°C, and bottom boundary of -7Â°C. However, spread rate significantly increased as the air and bottom boundary temperatures were increased to 22Â°C, demonstrating overwintering fires which often found in the Arctic when peat fires were considered to be extinguished only to resurface when warmer season arrives. This study is the first experimental work on smouldering Arctic wildfires with findings that can improve our understanding on the effect of cold temperatures on the smouldering dynamics of peat fires, and presents a novel methodology to investigate Arctic fires at laboratory scale.
Do wildfires burn tourism intentions? The case of Portugal
Authors: Cerejeira João , Sousa Rita , Bernardo Carolina
Published: October 2022

Fire intensity and size incite visitation decrease and recreational losses, relevant tourism variables for European economies. As a result of climate change, this reality is becoming more evident. Due to significant gaps in analyzing the relationship between wildfires and tourism demand, this paper aims to explain how tourism demand reacts to wildfires in Portugal. We use a novel approach in these studies and estimate a spatial econometric model to analyze the relationship between total burned areas and overnight stays in a touristic establishment in a given municipality and its neighboring municipalities. Our results show that wildfires negatively affect the overnight stays in the same location but also cause spillover effects in neighboring municipalities. Also, the wildfire occurrences are positively related to the number of overnight stays after three months, suggesting a delay in tourism activities.
Indirect effects of climate change on forest structure alters fuel availability in wet Eucalypt forests
Authors: Brown Tegan P , Inbar Assaf , Duff Thomas J , Lane Patrick NJ , Sheridan Gary J
Published: October 2022

The direct effects of climate change are increasing the frequency of high-intensity fire events in many ecosystems across the globe, including wet Eucalypt forests of south-eastern (SE) Australia. Recurrent high-intensity fire can alter vegetation structure and composition, and the resultant alternative vegetation states may be more likely (positive feedback) or less likely (negative feedback) to burn again than the vegetation community replaced. These indirect effects of climate change have been reported for a range of different ecosystems across the globe. However, a common limitation to many empirical studies is the narrow temporal range of observations, often limited to a single fire season. In turn, this limits our understanding of the potential for vegetation-mediated indirect effects of climate change to generate positive or negative fire feedbacks across the range of climate conditions common to the region. In wet Eucalypt forests of SE Australia, dead fuel moisture content (FMC) is a key determinant of fire activity, and therefore a useful metric on which to quantify the potential for feedbacks across alternative forest states. To quantify potential for indirect effects of climate change to alter future fire activity, FMC was modelled in the open and at seven alternative forest states to wet Eucalypt forest using a process-based FMC model. The model was run using a long-term climate dataset spanning 1973 â€“ 2020, which were transferred from macro- to microclimate values using forest structural properties derived from lidar. Hourly FMC outputs were summarised to fuel availability (FMC < 16% for one hour each day) to understand the potential for positive, negative of no feedbacks on potential fire activity. Mean annual FMC was significantly different between each alternative forest state across each of the 48 years of climate data â€“ which act as a replicate for different climate conditions in our experimental design. By quantifying these differences using the metric of fuel availability, we have demonstrated that statistically significant differences in FMC translate into meaningful differences in the context of potential fire activity. Overall, the results show strong positive and negative feedbacks across the alternative forest states compared to the mature wet Eucalypt forest that they replaced, which were greater than age-related differences within the wet Eucalypt forest sites. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that indirect effects of climate change, acting through vegetation conversion to alternative forest states, have a substantial impact on the potential for future fire activity, with important implications for land and fire managers in this region.
Burnt area trends in the Middle-East: evidence for the importance of recent conflicts
Authors: Majdalani Georgia , Koutsias Nikos , Adjizian-Gerard Jocelyne , Faour Ghaleb , Mouillot Florent
Published: October 2022

Fire is a major disturbance affecting Mediterranean ecosystems. Due to a lack of exhaustive fire registration, fire drivers in the Middle East have been hardly investigated. We propose here the analysis of a newly produced fire patch reconstruction from remote sensing over the 1984 â€“ 2020 period in Lebanon and Syria. First, we will provide a description of the particular bimodal and late season fire regimes in the two neighboring countries. Then, taking into account their different socio-political conditions since the start of the Syrian civil war in 2011, we will disentangle climate and social drivers by analyzing the ICEWS conflict events data-base.
Characterization of Ecological Vulnerability to Wildfires based on the Fire patterns on a global scale
Authors: Arrogante-Funes Fátima , Aguado Inmaculada , Chuvieco Emilio
Published: October 2022

Fire is a natural phenomenon that has played a critical role in transforming the environment and maintaining biodiversity at a global scale. However, the plants in some habitats have not developed strategies for recovery from fire or have not adapted to the changes taking place in their fire regimes. Maps showing ecological vulnerability to fires could contribute to environmental management policies in the face of global change scenarios. The main objective of this work is to characterize the ecological vulnerability to fires based on how fires occur on a global scale. For this purpose, we are going to create zonal statistics by biome and by vulnerability category, finding out the average data of the different fire variables. For this, we have taken two spatial databases previously developed by us, Ecological Vulnerability to Wildfires and Wildfires Characteristics. Ecological Vulnerability to Wildfires is a global database that categorizes spatial vulnerability by ecoregion. Wildfire Characteristics collects global spatial mean data on recurrence, seasonality, patch size, and interannual variability. The results show that in areas with High/Very High vulnerability of tropical and subtropical biomes, fires are not very intense, with a small patch size and low interannual variability, but are highly recurrent and with extensive seasonality. The most vulnerable areas of the Mediterranean biome have more intense fires, with a considerable patch size and, in addition, they present considerable interannual variability, little recurrence and limited seasonality. Temperate forest biomes present their most vulnerable areas with moderate intensity, patch size and recurrence fires, but with high interannual variability. The most vulnerable areas of the montane grasslands biome show highly recurrent fires, with extensive seasonality, with moderate patch size, intensity, and interannual variability.
Effects of the wildfires of August 2021 in the air quality of Athens through a numerical simulation
Authors: Osswald Tobias , Fernandes Ana Patrícia , Gama Carla , Miranda Ana Isabel
Published: October 2022

Air quality is significantly deteriorated during wildfire events, which poses a risk for the human health of affected populations. The Mediterranean Basin was strongly impacted by wildfires in the 2021 fire-season, particularly Athens whose numerous inhabitants experienced dangerous levels of air-quality for consecutive days. It is predicted that climate change will lead to a higher frequency of this type of situations over the coming decades. The numerical modelling system WRF-APIFLAME-CHIMERE, which comprises a meteorological model, a smoke emission model and a chemical transport model, was applied to estimate the impact of 2021 August wildfires in the air quality of Athens. The obtained concentration results were compared with data from air quality monitoring stations with a good agreement between model and measured data. Calculated values indicate concerning levels of air pollution during the days with wildfires close to the city.
High-Resolution Fire Risk Assessment and Management Planning in Peri-urban Areas via Coupling Geoinformatics, Machine-learning and Field Observations. Pilot Application in Attica Region, Greece.
Authors: Yfantidou Anastasia , Girtsou Stella , Tsoutsos Michail-Christos , Zoka Melpomeni , Kokkalidou Martha , Kontoes Charalampos , Stathopoulos Nikolaos
Published: October 2022

Coupled fire-atmosphere systems are currently developed to respond to the need of operational system in air quality and fire attack management. This work participates to this effort by proposing a simulation strategy where the plume is simulated using fire observation. Such approach can provide reference test case for more complex coupled fire-atmosphere simulation. Using the Forefire-MesoNH system, we simulate the plume evolution of a landscape scale burn where the fire is not simulated as a spreading front but rather prescribed from multiple fix burners controlled with observation data. The simulation of the plume formed from a 7-hectare savannah fire conducted in Kruger National Park in 2014 is demonstrated using helicopter-borne observations georeferenced at 1-m resolution and post-processed to extract information of heat fluxes at pixel level.