bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Unsupervised Learning for MRI Brain Tumor Segmentation with Spatially Variant Finite Mixture Model in Reversible Jump MCMC Algorithm
Authors: Pravitasari Anindya Apriliyanti , Iriawan N , Fithriasari K , Purnami S W , Irhamah  , Ferriastuti W
Published: February 2021

MRI brain tumor segmentation is an important topic in medical image processing. Manual segmentation is risky and time-consuming when the MRI is in low quality. The automatic segmentation can be a solution to manage this problem. This paper proposed an improved modeling approach for unsupervised learning trough Spatially Variant Finite Mixture Model (SVFMM). The main contribution is the automation of the SVFMM algorithm to find the optimum number of clusters. This is achieved by employing the birth-death random process in Bayesian Reversible Jump MCMC. Validation of the proposed model is done by calculating the Correct Classification Ration (CCR) in comparison to the original SVFMM and Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM). The proposed model provides similar performance in image segmentation compared to the original SVFMM but is better than GMM. However, SVFMM-RJMCMC is faster and more efficient in finding the optimum number of clusters.
The Method to Analyse the Association between Objects and Variables in the Form of / x 2 Contingency Tables with Continuous Variables Additional Data
Authors: Ginanjar Irlandia , Sunengsih N , Sudartianto
Published: February 2021

If the row and column categories of a contingency table sequentially seen, as objects and variables, then they are object data with discrete variables. Often from objects obtained additional data in the form of continuous variables. Based on these discrete and continuous variables, the more accurate method is necessary to analyse the associations between these variables. Treating discrete data as continuous is wrong, so this article aims to analyse the association of data in the form of / x 2 contingency tables with additional data that is continuous. From the data in the form of / x 2 contingency table, it converted using the simplification of correspondence analysis (SoCA), so that continuous principal coordinates obtained. Furthermore, the association between continuous variables was analysed using the cosine value of the angle between the two vectors. Case studies use poverty data in Indonesia, which published by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS-Statistics Indonesia). Data in the form of contingency tables are people population lived in poverty based on province and area of residence (urban or rural). Additional variables are poverty depth index, severity index, Gini ratio, food poverty line and non-food poverty line. The results of the analysis obtained information that in urban areas tend to have high Gini ratio, food poverty lines and non-food poverty lines, for rural areas tend to have a high poverty depth and severity index.
The Effect of Regional Characteristics and Relationship Among Locations In Air Pollution Using Spatial Autoregressive (SAR) and Spatial Durbin Models (SDM)
Authors: Suryowati Kris , Bekti RD , Fajiriyah R , Siswoyo E
Published: February 2021

Bantul Regency in Special Region of Yogyakarta, which consists of 17 sub-districts, is an area that continues to grow and has increased population activities. In 2014, 16 sub-districts had been contaminated by air quality. To find out things that can affect air pollution in the area, this study conduct spatial model. This method is used as an alternative of OLS a method that does not meet assumptions when used in the case of spatial data. The reason for using spatial model is because there is an autocorrelation in air quality among sub-districts. By OLS regression model, a significant factor influencing is the number of villages according to the type of transportation infrastructure. However, this model does not pay attention to the geographical location factor and the residual assumption that normal distribution is not met. The results of spatial model is Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) have a good performance because have a small AIC than SAR. In SDM, the variables that significant effect on air pollution were population density, transportation infrastructure, lag of population density, lag of transportation infrastructure, and lag of air pollution. Sub district will have high of air pollutan if have high of population density and transportation infrastructure, also close to other sub districts which also have high population density and transportation infrastructure.
Dynamical Analysis on A Model of Cholera Epidemic with Quarantine, Vaccination, and Two Path of Transmissions
Authors: Suryani Lilis , Kusumawinahyu W. M. , Shofianah N.
Published: February 2021

This research focus on dynamical analysis of a SIQRVB (Susceptible-Infectious-Quarantined-Recovered-Vaccinated-Bacterial) model. It describe the spread of cholerae with quarantine, vaccination and two transmission paths. As is well-known, there mainly exist two transmission paths for cholerae: environment-to-human transmission and human-to-human transmission. This model has two equilibrium points, that is disease-free equilibrium point which always exists and an endemic equilibrium point that exists with some conditions. The local stability of the equilibrium points is investigated by using Routh-Hurwitz criteria. The method of Next Generation Matrix is applied to get the basic reproduction number R0
. It can be shown numerically that disease-free equilibrium point is locally asymptotic stable when R0 < 1, while the endemic equilibrium point exist and locally asymptotic stable when satisfy Routh-Hurwitz criteria. Numerical simulations are given to illustrate the theoretical results.
Fuzzy c-shells for clustering of data’s LQ45 in Indonesia based on earnings per share and price earning ratio
Authors: Pratiwi Nafisa Berliana Indah , Saputro D R S , Widyaningsih P
Published: February 2021

Stocks are financial assets which is procurement valuable document of an enterprise that exhibit the ownership. Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) has stock index mentioned as Liquid 45 (LQ45). LQ45 includes 45 enterprises with high fundamentals. Stock investors shall use the finance report as primary decision in stocks investment. Profitability ratios is finance ratio component to evaluate the sale, assets, and stocks value. Earnings Per Share (EPS) measures investor perspective in form of returns calculation that will be obtained in certain period. Price earning ratio (PER) describes amount have to be paid by the investor for the profit of the enterprise. Stocks clustering is a necessary decision to gain maximal profits. Stocks clustering determined by clustering algorithm and stocks budge unpredictably then solved by fuzzy concept. The clustering for LQ45 solved by fuzzy c-shells clustering (FCS). FCS clustering for LQ45 results three clusters. First cluster has 7 enterprises with radius of cluster is 1.77, second cluster has 27 enterprises with radius of cluster is 0.37, and the third cluster has 11 enterprises with radius of cluster is 1.55. Xie Beni validity index value 0.4269798. That most minimum Xie Beni value results optimum and valid clusters.
Analysis of The Efficiency SA (Simulated Annealing) Model And Fuzzy Time Series (Case Study: Inventory System PT Y)
Authors: Ariyanto Riki , Heru Tjahjana R , Udjiani Titi
Published: February 2021

Forecasting sales and minimizing storage costs is the company’s strategy to maximize inventory in anticipation of sales spikes in stores so that it can be fulfilled even though storage warehouses are limited, on the other hand there is competition among distributors in ordering goods, which is trying to get the maximum level of service from suppliers so warehouse needs can be fullfiled. By using the forecasting method, Chen Fuzzy Time Series to predict future sales combined with the simulation annealing method (simulated annealing algorithm) as an optimization method in order to obtain the lowest possible storage costs. This combination of methods can improve shipping services from warehouse to store as a result of loss sales cause inventory shortages can be controlled so that inventory costs are more minimal and warehouse storage of goods can be maximized, the combination of these methods is more effective than conventional methods available at PT Y
Multi responses taguchi optimization using overlaid contour plot and desirability function
Authors: Winarni Sri , Sunengsih N , Ginanjar I
Published: February 2021

Optimization is the process of getting an optimal response. The taguchi design is an experimental design that is often used to get robust responses. In the multi-response Taguchi design, the optimization process is carried out by considering all responses simultaneously. Cases study used in this research is aluminum production cases with four treatments, namely tool rotational speed, welding speed, shoulder tool diameter and pin diameter. Each treatment was tried with three levels. Optimized responses are tensile strength, average microhardness and average grain size.The purpose of this research is determining the point of optimization using response surface method and desirability function. The optimization results obtained are tool rotational speed of 1100 RPM, Welding speed of 40 mm/min, Shoulder diameter of 21 mm, and pin diameter of 5.4 mm.
A Fixed Effect Panel Spatial Error Model in Identifying Factors of Poverty in West Java Province
Authors: Sudartianto  , Firman  , Suparman Y. , Ginanjar I.
Published: February 2021

In the last five years, poverty had been a major problem in West Java Province (WJP). Hence, it becomes a strategic development issue for the next five years. To contribute in eradicating the poverty, we aimed this study at identifying poverty factors and measuring their effects. There are two issues in modelling poverty in WJP. First, there was spatial dependency in poverty among regions. Second, due to data limitation, some important factors were not included in the empirical model. Both might lead to bias in regression parameter estimates. Accordingly, we applied a fixed effect panel spatial error model on the poverty rate in WJP. We found that health and economic welfare effected poverty.
Multiple Correspondence Analysis for Identifying the Contribution of Infant Mortality Indicator Categories
Authors: Purwandari Titi , Ginanjar Irlandia , Dewi Dhita Diana
Published: February 2021

Infant mortality rate is one of several other indicators that are very susceptible in order to illustrate the mark of public health problems. This indicator is substantial to know the cause of the deaths as well as how success the maternal and child health program. This study aims to determine the characteristics of the causes of infant deaths based on age groups and sub-districts in the city of Bandung using multiple correspondence analysis. The results of the study concluded that asphyxia, early neonatal age groups provide significant positive dependence on the sub-district of Bojongloa Kaler, Bojongloa Kidul, Cicendo, Cidadap, Lengkong. Asphyxia, infant age groups provide significant positive dependence on sub-district of Cibeunying Kidul, Cinambo, Kiara Condong. Low birth weight, early neonatal age groups provide significant positive dependence on sub-district of Andir, Rancasari. Congenital abnormalities, early neonatal age groups provide significant positive dependence on sub-district of Babakan Ciparay, Batununggal, Sukajadi. Congenital abnormalities, advanced neonatal age groups provide significant positive dependence on sub-district of Bandung Kidul. Congenital abnormalities and infant age groups provide a significant positive dependence on sub-district of Coblong. Pneumonia, the early neonatal age group provide a significant positive dependence on the sub-district of Bandung Kulon. Sepsis, infant age groups provide significant positive dependence on sub-district of Bandung Wetan.
Uncertainty in different precipitation products in the case of two atmospheric river events
Authors: Ramos Alexandre M , Roca Rémy , Soares Pedro M M , Wilson Anna M , Trigo Ricardo M , Ralph F Martin
Published: February 2021

One of the World Climate Research Programme Grand Challenges is to evaluate whether existing observations are enough to underpin the assessment of weather and climate extremes. In this study, we focus on extreme associated with atmospheric rivers (ARs). ARs are characterized by intense moisture transport usually from the tropics to the extra-tropics. They can either be beneficial, providing critical water supply, or hazardous, when excessive precipitation accumulation leads to floods. Here, we examine the uncertainty in gridded precipitation products included in the Frequent Rainfall Observations on GridS (FROGS) database during two atmospheric river events in distinct Mediterranean climates: one in California, USA, and another in Portugal. FROGS is composed of gridded daily-precipitation products on a common 1° × 1° grid to facilitate intercomparison and assessment exercises. The database includes satellite, ground-based and reanalysis (RE) products. Results show that the precipitation products based on satellite data, individually or combined with other products, perform least well in capturing daily precipitation totals over land during both cases studied here. The RE and the gauge-based products show the best agreement with local ground stations. As expected, there is an overall underestimation of precipitation by the different products. For the Portuguese AR, the multi-product ensembles reveal mean absolute percentage errors between −25% and −60%. For the western US case, the range is from −60% to −100%.
Do climate teleconnections modulate wildfire-prone conditions over the Iberian Peninsula?
Authors: Rodrigues Marcos , Peña-Angulo Dhais , Russo Ana , Zúñiga-Antón María , Cardil Adrián
Published: February 2021

Climate teleconnections (CT) synchronize and influence weather features such as temperature, precipitation and, subsequently, drought and fuel moisture in many regions across the globe. CTs thus may be related to cycles in wildfire activity, and thereby help fire managers to anticipate fire-prone weather conditions as well as envisaging their future evolution. A wide number of CTs modulate weather in the Iberian Peninsula (IP), exerting different levels of influence at different spatial and seasonal scales on a wide range of weather factors. In this work, we investigated the link between the most relevant CT patterns in the IP and fire activity and danger, exploring different spatial and temporal scales of aggregation. We analyzed a period of 36 years (1980–2015) using historical records of fire events (>100 ha burned) and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Cross-correlation analysis was performed on monthly time series of CTs and fire data. Results pointed towards the North Atlantic Oscillation (in the western half of the IP) and Mediterranean Oscillation Index (along the Mediterranean coast) as the key CTs boosting burned area (BA) and fire weather danger in the IP. Both CTs relate to the relative position of the Azorean anticlone, fostering hazardous fire weather conditions during their positive phases, i.e. low rainfall and warm temperature leading to low fuel moisture content. The Scandinavian pattern index also played an important role in the western half of the Peninsula, linked to a decrease in rainfall during its negative phases. Nonetheless, the association between the CTs and BA (up to 0.5 Pearson’s R p < 0.05) was weaker than the observed between CTs and FWI (up to 0.75 Pearson’s R p < 0.05).
Robust fraudulence detection of patchouli oil plant using near infrared spectroscopy
Authors: Meilina H , Munawar A A
Published: February 2021

This study aimed to apply the near infrared reflectance spectroscopy (NIRS) for a robust and fast detection method for fraudulence in patchouli oil plant. Pure patchouli oil sample and adulterated patchouli oil with ethanol were used as samples in this work. Spectral data in form of transmittance were acquired in wavenumbers range from 400 to 4000 cm−1. A total of 60 patchouli oil were adulterated and mixed using six difference concentration of ethanol while 10 remaining patchouli oil samples were pure without mixed with other substances. Classification models of pure and adulterated patchouli oil samples were established using principal component analysis followed by cross validation approach. The results showed that the models can distinguish between pure and mixed patchouli oil with 100% accuracy with two principal components (PCs) of the PCA. Based on obtained results, it may conclude that NIRS approach can be used to determine and classify patchouli oil samples based on their purity and fraudulence with ethanol
Non destructive evaluation quality of oil palm fresh fruit bunch (FFB) (Elaeis guineensis Jack) based on optical properties using artificial neural network (ANN)
Authors: Melidawati  , Cherie D , Fahmy K , Makky M
Published: February 2021

Oil palm (Elaeis guineensis Jacq) is one of the oil-producing plants with high productivity. The quality of palm fresh fruit bunches (FFB) is affected by harvesting activities. Generally, the method of harvesting oil palm by visual observation (maturity fraction) and harvest rotation systems. This study evaluated the quality of oil palm FFB non-destructively based on optical properties. Oil palm Fresh Fruit Bunches harvested in 5 ripeness ranges (110-130 DAA, 131-150 DAA, 151-170 DAA, 171-190 DAA, and 191-200 DAA). The oil palm FFB image recorded using a mobile camera with a minimum resolution of 25 megapixels, and then the image was processed using a digital image processing program. Furthermore, the quality parameters of oil palm FFB tested, and data were analyzed using SPSS Statistics 20.0 with the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) method. The model’s R2 upon calibration was 0.6934. While upon validation R2 value was 0.7211. The model was considered appropriate since R2 value both in calibration and validation were high.
Determination of risk-based for rice farmers using the nonparametric Bayesian method
Authors: Maulidi I , Syahrini I , Mahmudi  , Apriliani V
Published: February 2021

The Paddy Farmers Business Insurance or Asuransi Usaha Tani Padi (AUTP) is one of the insurance programs organized by the Indonesian government to improve the welfare of rice farmers in Indonesia. In this study, we formulated a premium estimation model of risk-based AUTP insurance. The method used was the Bayes method with a nonparametric approach. The data used was the AUTP claim data in Aceh province. The determination of the premium has been done by providing a settlement algorithm based on past data for two periods. From the analysis conducted, it was found that the Bayesian premium obtained is still not in accordance with what is currently applied by the government, especially in the area of study.
High conservation value approach in controlling water catchment area as a provider of environmental services
Authors: Syafjanuar T E , Siregar K , Ramli I
Published: February 2021

Catchment area is very important known for the protection of water resources as a provider of environmental services. Increasing population will increase water demand and the extent of land utilization. The purpose of this research is to determine the areas of high conservation value in the control of water catchment area at Peusangan Watershed as a provider of environmental services. One of the High Conservation Value (HCV) approaches is focused on water providers and flood control for downstream communities; and control of erosion and sedimentation. HCV is a spatial analysis, hence the use of multi-temporal satellite imagery and data processing using GIS plays an important role in the HCV assessment process. The results obtained, water catchment area in both natural and normal conditions 57.92%, getting critical 25.08% and rather critical, critical and very critical categories 17.0%. Sub-watershed in Peusangan Watershed area which has the largest critical area is Krueng Ceilala Sub-watershed (75, 56%) and Lut Tawar Sub-watershed (77.35%). Moderate Krueng Simpo Sub-watershed (35.44%) and Krueng Mane Sub-watershed (42, 17%). Krueng Ceulala Sub-watershed and Lut Tawar Sub-watershed is the upstream area of Peusangan Watershed which serves as a conservation area that needs to be kept in order to provide water availability in the transition and downstream Krueng Peusangan areas are to be maintained, as well as providing an impact in providing natural environment services and area that serves as water provider and flood controllers for downstream communities. The existence of water springs and rivers whose water has been utilized by the community is evidence that the area of watershed is high conservation value, due to the conversion of the land function that removes vegetation cover on the upstream causing functionality of the catchment area decreases.
Drought test resistance of maize varieties through PEG 6000
Authors: Bukhari B , Sabaruddin Z , Sufardi S , Syafruddin S
Published: February 2021

Abstracs. The germination phase is a very critical time for corn plants against water stress. Corn resistance to water stress in this phase is very different between cultivars. This initial test has been carried out in the Laboratory to determine the resistance level of some varieties of corn to water stress during the germination phase by using Poly Ethylene Glycol (PEG) 6000. There are nine corn varieties tested at three levels of PEG 6000 concentration of 0 % (0.00 MPa), 10 % (-0.19 MPa), and 20 % (-0.67 MPa). The experiment used a completely randomized 9 × 3 factorial design with 2 replications. The nine varieties tested were: Anoman 1 (V1), Lamuru (V2), Gumarang (V3), Srikandi Kuning (V4), Sukmaraga (V5), Bisma (V6), Arjuna (V7)), Lagaligo varieties (V8), and NK-Jumbo varieties (V9). Selection of maize varieties on water stress during the germination phase of 9 selected varieties into 3 varieties consisting of one tolerant variety, one moderately tolerant variety and one sensitive variety through prediction of a PEG 6000 osmoticum solution in the germination phase. The experimental results showed that the concentration of PEG 6000 affected the response of nine corn varieties to germination and seed vigor. The most tolerant (resistant) corn varieties are NK-Jumbo (V9) and the moderately resistant varieties (medium) are Srikandi Kuning (V4) while the intolerant (sensitive) varieties are Lamuru (V2).
The strategy to improve Indonesian clove production
Authors: Haryana S , Usman M , Fajri  , Kasimin S
Published: February 2021

Indonesia is one of the major clove producing country in the world. The broad trends Indonesian clove production and the production tends to increase every year. Indonesian clove export competitiveness in the international market is included in the very strong category because it has an RCA value above the world average, but Indonesian clove export competitiveness is still below the five competing countries. The purpose of this study was to formulate a strategy to improve the competitiveness of Indonesian clove exports. Based on SWOT analysis (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) strategies that can be formulated to increase the competitiveness of Indonesian clove exports, namely: optimizing clove land, improving the quality of processed cloves, expanding markets, developing existing farmer institutions, collaborating with clove processing companies in major consumer countries, promoting organic farming systems in clove plantations, improving national economic conditions that support clove commodities.
Alternative based farmer model for increasing red chili production in Bener Meriah, Aceh
Authors: Zulkarnain  , Hakim L , Wardhana M Y
Published: February 2021

This study aims to understand and model the partnership system in the red chili supply chain in Bener Meriah Regency. This study uses a system dynamics method to build a partnership model in a dynamic and complex red chili supply chain. The subject of this research is a partnership system in the red chili supply chain in Bener Meriah Regency to improve the bargaining position of farmers. The results show that in an equal partnership policy scenario, in the formal partnership model a loan structure for farmers from partners is added and the debt structure is eliminated. Based on the simulation results after the application of an equal partnership policy between farmers and partners, cash, profits and efficiency levels of chili farming increased from before. Through the equal partnership, it is hoped that the standard of living of chili farmers can improve in the future. For equality between chili growers and partners, there needs to be interference and the government's willingness to issue partnership rules with small farmers. Without government intervention, equality between smallholders and partners will be difficult to realize.
Amplitude range data validation in Internet of Things (IoT) sensor
Authors: Candra R A , Suherman  , Ilham D N
Published: February 2021

Internet of Things (IoT) has been widely used for collecting data wirelessly for many applications. Data is collected periodically through TCP/IP network to a collecting server for further usage. Data clean-up and validation are mainly performed in server to ensure valid data for processing. Since validation is performed in server, data sent by IoT node may contain error and invalid data. Since power availability in sensor is an issue, error data transmission has some disadvantages; power lost in data collection and data transmission. This paper experimentally applied a simple maximum minimum amplitude data validation to omit invalid data in sensor. The method requires small processing power and is proven to conserve 23.54% of total power.
Effect of various drying methods on the physicochemical characteristics of pumpkin powder
Authors: Tarwaca S N , Karyadi J N W , Nugraheni N F , Indrasari Y P , Albyan R , Setiyadi I , Ayuni D
Published: February 2021

Pumpkin, one of the most famous cultivars from Cucurbita moschata, is a rich source of carotenoid. However, having high water content (above 80%) makes pumpkin extremely perishable, and difficult to be processed and stored. Therefore, pumpkin needs a dehydration process in which could remove moisture content from the product but still able to uphold its natural color and minimum nutrient losses. We have carried out a comprehensive study to investigate the effect of different methods; sunlight drying (SD), cabinet drying (CD), and pneumatic drying (PD) on the physicochemical properties of pumpkin powder. The pneumatic dryer used was self-fabricated with a stainless steel plate (3 mm thickness) that has a total dimension of 1600x 500x 2500 mm. The physicochemical properties evaluated include final moisture content, the color difference (ΔE), carbohydrate, fat, protein, and β-carotene. CD produced powder with the lowest final moisture content. The mean value of ΔE of PD was the lowest as compared to SD and CD. The SD sample has the lowest mean FM value. Pneumatic drying exhibit good potential to produce pumpkin powder while retaining its color and nutritive values.
Nonlinear phase dynamics of ideal kink mode in the presence of shear flow
Authors: ZHANG Yi , GUO Zhibin
Published: February 2021

We investigate nonlinear phase dynamics of an ideal kink mode, induced by E × B flow. Here the phase is the cross phase (θ
c) between perturbed stream function of velocity (

ϕ

˜

) and magnetic field (

ψ

˜

), i.e. θ
c = θ

ϕ
− θ

ψ
. A dimensionless parameter, analogous to the Richardson number,

R

i

=
16

γ

kink

2

/

ω

ˆ

E

2

(γ
kink: the normalized growth rate of the pure kink mode;

ω

ˆ

E

: normalized E × B shearing rate) is defined to measure the competition between phase pinning by the current density and phase detuning by the flow shear. When R
i > 1, θ
c is locked to a fixed value, corresponding to the conventional eigenmode solution. When R
i ≤ 1, θ
c enters a phase slipping or oscillating state, corresponding to a nonmodal solution. The nonlinear phase dynamics method provides a more intuitive explanation of the complex dynamical behavior of the kink mode in the presence of E × B shear flow.
Avoidance, adjacency, and association in distributed systems design
Authors: Klishin Andrei A , Singer David J , van Anders Greg
Published: February 2021

Patterns of avoidance, adjacency, and association in complex systems design emerge from the system’s underlying logical architecture (functional relationships among components) and physical architecture (component physical properties and spatial location). Understanding the physical–logical architecture interplay that gives rise to patterns of arrangement requires a quantitative approach that bridges both descriptions. Here, we show that statistical physics reveals patterns of avoidance, adjacency, and association across sets of complex, distributed system design solutions. Using an example arrangement problem and tensor network methods, we identify several phenomena in complex systems design, including placement symmetry breaking, propagating correlation, and emergent localization. Our approach generalizes straightforwardly to a broad range of complex systems design settings where it can provide a platform for investigating basic design phenomena.
Mortality in hip fracture patients after implementation of a nurse practitioner-led orthogeriatric care program: results of a 1-year follow-up
Authors: van Leendert Jannic A A , Linkens Aimée E M J H , Poeze Martijn , Pijpers Evelien , Magdelijns Fabienne , ten Broeke René H M , Spaetgens Bart
Published: February 2021

Background: Hip fractures are a major cause of mortality and disability in frail older adults. Therefore, orthogeriatrics has been embraced to improve patient outcomes. With the optimal template of orthogeriatric care still unknown, and to curtail rising healthcare expenditure we implemented a nurse practitioner-led orthogeriatric care program (NPOCP). The objective was to evaluate NPOCP by measuring 3-month and 1-year mortality, compared to usual care (UC). In addition, length of stay (LOS) and location of hospital discharge were reported.

Methods: An anonymised data set, of hip fracture patients (n = 300) who presented to Maastricht University Medical Centre, the Netherlands, a level-1 trauma centre, was used. NPOCP was implemented on one of two surgical wards, while the other ward received UC. Patient allocation to these wards was random.

Results: In total, 144 patients received NPOCP and 156 received UC. In the NPOCP, 3-month and 1-year mortality rates were 9.0% and 13.9%, compared to 24.4% and 34.0% in the UC group (P < 0.001). The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for 3-month (aHR 0.50 [95%CI: 0.26–0.97]) and 1-year mortality (aHR 0.50 [95%CI: 0.29–0.85]) remained lower in NPOCP compared to UC. Median LOS was 9 days [IQR 5–13] in patients receiving UC and 7 days [IQR 5–13] in patients receiving NPOCP (P = 0.08). Thirty-eight (27.5%) patients receiving UC and fifty-seven (40.4%) patients receiving NPOCP were discharged home (P = 0.023).

Conclusion: Implementation of NPOCP was associated with significantly reduced mortality in hip fracture patients and may contribute positively to high-quality care and improve outcomes in the frail orthogeriatric population.
Use of the Xpert Breast Cancer STRAT4 for Biomarker Evaluation in Tissue Processed in a Developing Country
Authors: Mugabe Marcellin , Ho Kenneth E , Ruhangaza Deo , Milner Dan , Rugwizangoga Belson , Chu Victor C , Wu Natalie C , Rizo Annaliza , Weidler Jodi M , Wong Wendy , Bates Michael , Brock Jane E
Published: February 2021

Objectives

Breast cancer immunohistochemistry (IHC) biomarker testing is limited in low-resource settings, and an alternative solution is needed. A point-of-care mRNA STRAT4 breast cancer assay for ESR1, PGR, ERBB2, and MKi67, for use on the GeneXpert platform, has been recently validated on tissues from internationally accredited laboratories, showing excellent concordance with IHC.

Methods

We evaluated STRAT4/IHC ESR1/estrogen receptor (ER), ERBB2/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) concordance rates of 150 breast cancer tissues processed in Rwanda, with undocumented cold ischemic and fixation time.

Results

Assay fail/indeterminate rate was 2.6% for ESR1 and ERBB2. STRAT4 agreement with ER IHC was 92.5% to 93.3% and 97.8% for HER2, for standard (1x) and concentrated (4x) reagent-conserving protocols, respectively. Eleven of 12 discordant ER/ESR1 cases were ESR1- negative/IHC-positive. These had low expression of ER by IHC in mostly very small tumor areas tested (7/12; <25 mm2). In two of three discordant HER2 cases, the STRAT4-ERBB2 result correlated with the subsequent fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) result. STRAT4-ERBB2 results in 9 of 10 HER2-IHC equivocal cases were concordant with FISH.

Conclusions

The STRAT4 assay is an alternative for providing quality-controlled breast cancer biomarker data in laboratories unable to provide quality and/or cost-efficient IHC services.
Test Volume Ratio Benchmarking to Identify and Reduce Low-Value Laboratory Utilization
Authors: Bevins Nicholas J , Luevano Daniel R , Nuspl Robin , Wang-Rodriguez Jessica
Published: February 2021

Objectives

We analyzed test volume data to identify low-value test utilization. We subsequently tracked the efficacy of interventions to improve test utilization by decreasing low-value testing.

Methods

Test volume data for analytes included in the Choosing Wisely guidelines were analyzed to identify population outliers. Outliers were defined by test volume ratios of either analyte to sodium or paired analytes to correct for variation in patient volumes at each site. Interventions to improve test utilization were targeted to outlier sites. Relative efficacy in reducing low-value testing was tracked at those sites.

Results

After appropriate data cleaning, test volume ratios for 17 analytes paired with sodium and 8 pairs of analytes were acquired from 108 national sites. A site with abnormally high Clostridium difficile/sodium ratio was selected for intervention, leading to a 71% decrease in C difficile tests. Two different interventions to decrease creatine kinase MB isoform (CKMB) testing were performed at two unique sites with abnormally high CKMB/troponin ratios. These interventions decreased CKMB by 11% and 98% at the different sites, showing the efficacy of the different kinds of interventions.

Conclusions

Test volume ratio analysis and benchmarking enable identification of low-value test utilization.
Life Course Socioeconomic Position, Intergenerational Social Mobility, and Hypertension Incidence in ELSA-Brasil
Authors: Lopes José Aparecido Soares , Giatti Luana , Griep Rosane Harter , Lopes Antonio Alberto da Silva , Matos Sheila Maria Alvim , Chor Dora , Fonseca Maria de Jesus M , Barreto Sandhi Maria
Published: February 2021

Background

Life course epidemiology is a powerful framework to unravel the role of socioeconomic position (SEP) disparities in hypertension (HTN). This study investigated whether life course SEP is associated with HTN incidence. Specifically, to test whether cumulative low SEP throughout life and unfavorable intergenerational social mobility increased HTN incidence.

METHODS

Longitudinal analysis of 8,754 ELSA-Brasil participants without HTN or cardiovascular in visit 1 (2008–2010). The response variable was the incidence of HTN between visits 1 and 2 (2012–2014). The explanatory variables were childhood, youth, and adulthood SEP, cumulative low SEP, and intergenerational social mobility. Associations were estimated by incidence rate ratios (IRRs) obtained by generalized linear models, with Poisson distribution and logarithmic link function, after adjustment for sociodemographic, behavioral, and health factors.

RESULTS

The incidence of HTN was 43.2/1,000 person-years, being higher in males, elderly (70–74 years), self-declared black, and low SEP individuals. After considering sociodemographic factors, low SEP in childhood, youth, and adulthood remained statistically associated with increased HTN incidence. Individuals in the third (IRR: 1.26; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.11–1.44) and fourth top quartiles (IRR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.11–1.49) of cumulative low SEP, vs. first, as well as those with low stable intergenerational trajectory (IRR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.16–1.43), vs. high stable, also had increased HTN incidence rates.

Conclusions

Socioeconomic disparities at all phases of the life cycle appear to raise HTN incidence rates, being the individuals with greater accumulation of exposure to low SEP and with more unfavorable intergenerational mobility at greatest risk, even in a short follow-up time.
Effects of the endocrine disruptor vinclozolin in male reproduction: a systematic review and meta-analysis†
Authors: Feijó Mariana , Martins Roberta V L , Socorro Sílvia , Pereira Luísa , Correia Sara
Published: February 2021

Endocrine-disrupting chemicals have become an issue of scientific and public discussion. Vinclozolin (VNZ) is a fungicide that competitively antagonizes the binding of natural androgens to their receptor, disturbing the function of tissues that are sensitive to these hormones, as is the case of the male reproductive organs. A systematic review with meta-analyses of rodent studies was conducted to answer the following question: Does exposure to VNZ affect sperm parameters and testicular/epididymal weight? The methodology was prespecified according to the Cochrane Handbook for Systematic Reviews and PRISMA recommendations. Sixteen articles met the inclusion criteria, comprising a total of 1189 animals. The risk of publication bias was assessed using the Trim and Fill adjustment, funnel plot, and Egger regression test. Heterogeneity and inconsistency across the findings were tested using the Q-statistic and I2 of Higgins, respectively. Sensitivity was also analyzed. Statistical analysis was performed on Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software (Version 2.0), using random models and weighted mean differences along with a 95% confidence interval. Sperm motility, counts, daily sperm production (evidence of publication bias), and epididymis weight were decreased in VNZ-treated animals. Exposure length and dose, as well as the time point of exposure, influenced the obtained results. Despite the moderate/high heterogeneity observed, the sensitivity analysis overall demonstrated the robustness of the findings. The quality scores of the included studies were superior to 4 in a total of 9, then classified as good. The obtained data corroborate the capability of VNZ exposure to disrupt spermatogenic output and compromise male fertility.
Social relationships and their connection to mental health for young people who have been in the care system
Authors: Törrönen Maritta
Published: February 2021

The mental health of young people is a pressing concern in global development. However, there is little research on how young adults report their own mental health. The interview data gathered in this study (n = 74) explored young adults’ well-being during the transition period from care to independent living under an English local authority and in Finland. Participatory action research methods were employed. The interview schedule included 71 open and closed questions, and was analysed by content and summarised using the SPSS software application and Excel tables. The themes concerning mental health and social relationships were divided into three categories: ‘They have been there for me’, ‘My friends are the only ones’ and ‘They just guided me’. Participants who felt they had supportive social networks also felt their mental well-being and security to be better than those who did not. Overall, the findings demonstrated that good, significant social relations provided a sense of security but did not guarantee a positive mental outlook. Exploring young adults’ own evaluations of their social networks provides social work practitioners with sensitive information with which to find ways for young people to support their mental health in their own terms.
Patients With Uncomplicated Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Have Long-Term Persistent Symptoms and Functional Impairment Similar to Patients with Severe COVID-19: A Cautionary Tale During a Global Pandemic
Authors: Jacobson Karen B , Rao Mallika , Bonilla Hector , Subramanian Aruna , Hack Isabelle , Madrigal Martina , Singh Upinder , Jagannathan Prasanna , Grant Philip
Published: February 2021

To assess the prevalence of persistent functional impairment after coronavirus disease (COVID-19), we assessed 118 individuals 3–4 months after their initial COVID-19 diagnosis with a symptom survey, work productivity and activity index questionnaire, and 6-minute walk test. We found significant persistent symptoms and functional impairment, even in non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19.
The writing and reception of Risk, Uncertainty and Profit
Authors: Emmett Ross B
Published: February 2021

Risk, Uncertainty and Profit was published in 1921, but started as the doctoral thesis ‘A Theory of Business Profit,’ defended in 1916. The first half of the paper examines the changes in organization and argument that Knight undertook between completing the thesis defense and the book’s publication five years later. The reorganization helped Knight focus attention on uncertainty as the most important aspect of economic life standing between the worlds of perfect and imperfect competition, and to explore more of its implications for both price theory and entrepreneurial judgment. The second half of the paper carries the story forward by examining the reception Risk, Uncertainty and Profit received from 1921 until Knight’s retirement in the early 1950s. The study of its reception uses a database of citations of Knight’s book in economics journals found through a JSTOR search. While Knight’s book is remembered today mostly for its introduction of uncertainty, in the economics literature the book’s treatment of basic price theory is more frequently cited, especially in the leading economics journals of the interwar period. The citation data indicates that the role of Risk, Uncertainty and Profit in economics education at the London School of Economics and the University of Chicago extended and expanded the book’s impact.
Instrument-based estimation with binarised treatments: issues and tests for the exclusion restriction
Authors: Andresen Martin E , Huber Martin
Published: February 2021

When estimating local average and marginal treatment effects using instrumental variables (IVs), multivalued endogenous treatments are frequently converted to binary measures, supposedly to improve interpretability or policy relevance. Such binarisation introduces a violation of the IV exclusion if (a) the IV affects the multivalued treatment within support areas below and/or above the threshold and (b) such IV-induced changes in the multivalued treatment affect the outcome. We discuss assumptions that satisfy the IV exclusion restriction with a binarised treatment and permit identifying the average effect of (a) the binarised treatment and (b) unit-level increases in the original multivalued treatment among specific compliers. We derive testable implications of these assumptions and propose tests which we apply to the estimation of the returns to college graduation instrumented by college proximity.
Psychological Effects of Poverty on Time Preferences
Authors: Bartoš Vojtěch , Bauer Michal , Chytilová Julie , Levely Ian
Published: February 2021

We test whether an environment of poverty affects time preferences through purely psychological channels. We measured discount rates among farmers in Uganda who made decisions about when to enjoy entertainment instead of working. To circumvent the role of economic constraints, we experimentally induced thoughts about poverty-related problems, using priming techniques. We find that thinking about poverty increases the preference to consume entertainment early and to delay work. Using monitoring tools similar to eye tracking, a novel feature for this subject pool, we show that this effect is unlikely to be driven by less careful decision-making processes.
Financial viability of a fully simulated transformation from even-aged to uneven-aged stand structure in forests of different ages
Authors: Vítková Lucie , Saladin Dominik , Hanewinkel Marc
Published: February 2021

For the first time, an economic analysis of a fully simulated forest transformation process from even-aged to uneven-aged stand structure using natural regeneration was performed using an individual tree growth simulator. A comparison to a ‘business as usual’ management approach (i.e. age-class scenario) was also made. Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.)-dominated forests of different ages were selected for the simulation: forest at thinning stage (52 years; hereafter, ‘younger stand’) and a mature stand (95 years) to explore different starting points for the transformation.

The harvested and remaining stand volume showed only little fluctuation over the course of the simulation period in the case of the transformation (uneven-aged) scenario. The age-class scenario, on the other hand, showed peaks and drops in the timber volume.

The land expectation values at the end of transformation were higher (i = 1 or 2 per cent) or equal (i = 3 per cent) to those of the age-class scenario for the younger stand. The transformation of younger forests appears to be economically interesting (under interest rates above 2 per cent) as the early revenues of more intensive thinnings achieve an equilibrium growing stock well below the potential maximum growing stock of an even-aged stand. This suggests transformation management to be economically efficient under the given silvicultural and economic conditions. The transformation of mature stands was found to be less economically viable due to the lower holding values for the transformation (uneven-aged) scenario compared with the age-class scenario. However, the holding values of the younger stand were higher for all interest rates compared with the age-class scenario.

This study concludes that transformation (uneven-aged) scenario yielded more economically viable silvicultural approach (in the case of younger forests) and a steadier trend in harvested and remaining timber volume showing no major fluctuations. Transformation approach also forms a better foundation where other ecosystem services can be built.
Comparative Genomics Suggests a Taxonomic Revision of the Staphylococcus cohnii Species Complex
Authors: Lavecchia Anna , Chiara Matteo , De Virgilio Caterina , Manzari Caterina , Pazzani Carlo , Horner David , Pesole Graziano , Placido Antonio
Published: February 2021

Staphylococcus cohnii (SC), a coagulase-negative bacterium, was first isolated in 1975 from human skin. Early phenotypic analyses led to the delineation of two subspecies (subsp.), Staphylococcus cohnii subsp. cohnii (SCC) and Staphylococcus cohnii subsp. urealyticus (SCU). SCC was considered to be specific to humans, whereas SCU apparently demonstrated a wider host range, from lower primates to humans. The type strains ATCC 29974 and ATCC 49330 have been designated for SCC and SCU, respectively. Comparative analysis of 66 complete genome sequences—including a novel SC isolate—revealed unexpected patterns within the SC complex, both in terms of genomic sequence identity and gene content, highlighting the presence of 3 phylogenetically distinct groups. Based on our observations, and on the current guidelines for taxonomic classification for bacterial species, we propose a revision of the SC species complex. We suggest that SCC and SCU should be regarded as two distinct species: SC and SU (Staphylococcus urealyticus), and that two distinct subspecies, SCC and SCB (SC subsp. barensis, represented by the novel strain isolated in Bari) should be recognized within SC. Furthermore, since large-scale comparative genomics studies recurrently suggest inconsistencies or conflicts in taxonomic assignments of bacterial species, we believe that the approach proposed here might be considered for more general application.