bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Goal Programming Priority Sensitivity Analysis: An Application in Natural Resource Decision Making Processes
Authors: Neely Walter P. , Sellers Jackie , North Ronald M.
Published: October 2008

A Cross-Florida Navigable Waterway was proposed by the Jefferson Administration (1801–1809) and Congress authorized the first study in 1826. Four alternative routes were considered in the Survey Report of 1829 (Senate Document 102, 20th Congress). Serious construction of the Cross-Florida Barge Canal (CFBC) began in 1964 on the basis of a 1942 authorization. Construction was halted in 1971 with the project about one-third completed and with a sunk investment of about $74 million. Its status is described as “holding.”

A substantial restudy of the project was undertaken in 1974–76 by the Corps of Engineers. One of these restudy efforts, sponsored by the Environmental Protection Agency, utilized goal programming in order to consider both economic and environmental objectives simultaneously. Since these objectives had been considered separately before, the approach was a step forward. There were the difficult problems of quantification of environmental goals and specification of priority weights to measure economic and environmental trade-offs. These were resolved with a sensitivity analysis of the goal weights which utilized estimates of a triangular distribution for each goal.
Problems of Quantitative Models in Large Management Information Systems: A Comment
Authors: Cox James F.
Published: October 2008

In a recent article, Rosenman [Rosenman, B. B. 1980. Problems of quantitative models in large management information systems. Interfaces 10 (2, April) 102–105.] describes and arborescent inventory system where each stage or level obtains its parts from a uniques immediate predecessor and distributes these parts to a unique set of immediate successors. Various approaches have been proposed for determining optimal and near-optimal single cycle policies for deterministic arborescent systems for a single product. Because of complexity, the use of these approaches for large scale problems proved to be inappropriate. Some alternative approaches are also considered.
Comments on the Comment
Authors: Rosenman Bernard B.
Published: October 2008

The comments made by Professor Cox (previous article), while not entirely germane to the main thrust of my article, raise a number of points which it might be instructive to examine.

The Army, of course, has an arborescent inventory system. The model briefly described in my article is used by the National Inventory Control Points (NICP's) for management of “wholesale” stocks; it is a single-echelon model dealing only with demands coming into the NICP's from their customers.
The Management Science Achievement Award—Ninth Annual Competition: 1980
Authors: Hirshfeld David S.
Published: October 2008

The Kelly-Springfield Tire Company is the winner of the 1980 Management Science Achievement Award for its innovative, technically advanced, and effective use of Management Science in integrated operations planning and scheduling.

The $6,000 cash prize was awarded to Robert H. King, Manager of Research and Planning, and Robert R. Love, Jr., Management Science Analyst, both of Kelly-Springfield's Operating Division. Their award-winning paper concerned production planning in tire manufacture.

The judges were particularly impressed by the work of Kenneth G. Cooper, of Pugh-Roberts Associates, dealing with the Ingalls shipbuilding model as a technique for cost management and negotiation. For this work, Dr. Cooper received the second cash award of $2,500.

Likewise of special merit was the entry by Betty W. Holz and General James M. Wroth (Ret.) of General Research Corporation on the Army's computer system for manpower planning, budgeting, and policy evaluation. For this work, Ms. Holz and General Wroth received the third cash award of $1,500.
Improving Strength Forecasts: Support for Army Manpower Management
Authors: Holz Betty W. , Wroth James M.
Published: October 2008

Through innovative use of Management Science, manpower management in the Army has been significantly improved. A computer system has been developed by General Research Corporation that is used by Headquarters, Department of the Army, for manpower planning, budgeting, policy development, and monitoring the progress of manpower programs. Use of the system, called ELIM-COMPLIP, is central to the management of Army manpower and has been credited by senior Army officials with making several important contributions to improved national defense, including annual savings of more than $100 million in the Army's budget for military personnel, and enabling the number of Army divisions to rise from 13 to 16.

The principal output from ELIM-COMPLIP is the Army military manpower program, which contains forecasts of strength, gains, and losses over a seven-year period, based on both historical time-series data and projected effects of changes in policy and other conditions. Included in the system is a goal programming model that, under a variety of user-specified constraints, determines the gains that will maintain operating strength as closely as possible to the levels required to man the Army's force structure.
Implementing Effective Risk Analysis at Getty Oil Company
Authors: Davidson Lynn B. , Cooper Dale O.
Published: October 2008

Risk analysis is having a major influence on management decisions involving investments totaling billions of dollars at the Getty Oil Company. It is now used for all major decisions on investments in exploration and production and in refinery additions. In addition, it is used for decisions on major divestments and acquisitions, where some of the most significant risk analysis work has been done. Making risk analysis a practical management tool has involved development of simple but effective techniques, development of management understanding and support, and implementation of an income uncertainty analysis system which has helped build risk analysis skills and concepts.
An Application of Warehouse Location Techniques to Bloodmobile Operations
Authors: Cerveny Robert P.
Published: October 2008

A heuristic approach to the warehouse location problem suggested by Kuehn and Kuenne was applied to bloodmobile staging area site selection in two American Red Cross Regional Blood Programs. In one region, the results of the analysis were used to direct the site search and justify the ultimate selection.In the second case results indicated that the current staging area location should be retained and other Red Cross operations moved. Staging area location has implications for operating costs, and the analysis allowed both regions to consider this parameter in an objective manner. Management Science techniques are used in this instance and aid in making decisions which traditionally have been made along political lines.
Production and Inventory Planning in the Beedi Industry
Authors: Lingaraj B. P.
Published: October 2008

The beedi is a small roll of finely cut tobacco, wrapped in kendu leaf and held together by a thread, smoked mostly by agricultural and industrial workers in south Asia. The beedi production process in India is very labor intensive. The industry is in effect a conglomerate of cottage industries. This study focuses on the aggregate production and inventory planning problem of a contractor whose existing inventory policy for leaves was not based on any systematic analysis. The suggested inventory model resulted in significant cost savings. His plan for increasing production is compared with other alternatives, and it is shown that marginal profit can be increased by adopting a different production plan.
Practice Abstracts
Authors: Denton Brian T.
Published: October 2008

The goal of “Practice Abstracts” is to present interesting, topical, and novel applications of operations research methodology to a wide range of industrial applications. “Practice Abstracts” are intended to provide Interfaces readers with short (2–4 page) descriptions of the most relevant aspects of operations-research-based projects, in a form that is accessible to academics and practitioners in other organizations. Contributions should be sent for evaluation to the editor of “Practice Abstracts,” Brian T. Denton, Edward P. Fitts Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, 370 Daniels Hall, North Carolina State University, 111 Lampe Drive, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-7906, bdenton@ncsu.edu.
Polar Bear Population Forecasts: A Public-Policy Forecasting Audit
Authors: Armstrong J. Scott , Green Kesten C. , Soon Willie
Published: October 2008

Calls to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act are based on forecasts of substantial long-term declines in their population. Nine government reports were written to help US Fish and Wildlife Service managers decide whether or not to list polar bears as a threatened species. We assessed these reports based on evidence-based (scientific) forecasting principles. None of the reports referred to sources of scientific forecasting methodology. Of the nine, Amstrup et al. [Amstrup, S. C., B. G. Marcot, D. C. Douglas. 2007. Forecasting the rangewide status of polar bears at selected times in the 21st century. Administrative Report, USGS Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK.] and Hunter et al. [Hunter, C. M., H. Caswell, M. C. Runge, S. C. Amstrup, E. V. Regehr, I. Stirling. 2007. Polar bears in the Southern Beaufort Sea II: Demography and population growth in relation to sea ice conditions. Administrative Report, USGS Alaska Science Center, Anchorage, AK.] were the most relevant to the listing decision, and we devoted our attention to them. Their forecasting procedures depended on a complex set of assumptions, including the erroneous assumption that general circulation models provide valid forecasts of summer sea ice in the regions that polar bears inhabit. Nevertheless, we audited their conditional forecasts of what would happen to the polar bear population assuming, as the authors did, that the extent of summer sea ice would decrease substantially during the coming decades. We found that Amstrup et al. properly applied 15 percent of relevant forecasting principles and Hunter et al. 10 percent. Averaging across the two papers, 46 percent of the principles were clearly contravened and 23 percent were apparently contravened. Consequently, their forecasts are unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers. We recommend that researchers apply all relevant principles properly when important public-policy decisions depend on their forecasts.
Relevance to Practice and Auction Theory: A Memorial Essay for Michael Rothkopf
Authors: Harstad Ronald M. , Pekeč Aleksandar Saša
Published: October 2008

This essay assesses the state of auction theory in a particular dimension: its relevance to practice. Most auction models are more abstract than necessary. They depend on assumptions that are highly unlikely to occur in practical situations, which are often less formal and rigid. Nonetheless, we discuss several significant steps toward offering more practical advice.
A Simplified Alternative to Current Airline Fuel Allocation Models
Authors: Nash Barry
Published: October 2008

The primary intent of the model, as with all fuel allocation models, was to resolve purchase quantities which will take maximum advantage of existing tankering opportunities. Tankering, the purchase of fuel in excess of that immediately required for the next flight leg, simply means topping off the tanks at the cheaper stations to the extent the increased burn penalty and station supply allow. Evidence was presented affirming that, in 1976, National's computerized fuel allocation model had enabled the company to realize an average drop in fuel costs of 1.922 cents per gallon while the industry overall experienced a 0.628 cents-per-gallon increase. Cost savings the first year of model utilization were estimated in the range of $3 million. The effects of price increases were dispersed and tankering strategies developed to continue normal schedule operations even under conditions of erratic supply. The model proved of great benefit during contract negotiations, enabling officials to easily reallocate purchases away from vendors who insisted on unreasonable terms or could provide only a limited supply.
Energy Audit Program Simulation
Authors: Macon Max Roderick , Turban Efraim
Published: October 2008

In 1979 and the first few months of 1980, the Florida Power and Light Company (Miami, Florida) developed a new energy conservation program, to offer residential customers energy audits conducted in their homes. Concerned with its ability, once the program was underway, to respond promptly to customers' requests for this new service, the company developed a simulation-waiting line model to predict the level of performance in terms of the average customer queue, the average customer waiting time, the maximum waiting time, the service utilization, and the idle time as a function of the number of auditors available and the number of mailings offering the service to customers. This information is used for policy determination by Florida Power and Light Company.
Effective Alternatives to Large-Scale Information Systems
Authors: Moore L. Ted , Byrd Jack
Published: October 2008

Managers in manufacturing environments need timely information in a form useful in making operational decisions. Existing information systems commonly exhibit two important shortcomings: too complicated to be understood quickly, and too slow to be effective. Alternative information systems have been devised which have been successful tools for decision making. This paper describes three projects which implemented successful alternatives to large-scale information systems, and the general principles which they demonstrate are explained.
Joint Determination of Machine Requirements and Shift Scheduling in Banking Operations
Authors: Davis S. G. , Reutzel E. T.
Published: October 2008

In a recent article in this journal Krajewski, Ritzman, and McKenzie [Krajewski, L. J., L. P. Ritzman, P. McKenzie. 1980. Shift scheduling in banking operations: A case application. Interfaces 10 (2, April).] described a linear programming approach for shift scheduling of encoder operations in commercial banks. Their methodology uses a one-week time horizon, thereby recognizing the need to satisfy personnel considerations while responding to substantial day-to-day volume fluctuations. As part of the sensitivity analysis, they performed a series of runs to determine the sensitivity of machine requirements to changes in the weekly volume of check arrivals. One set of runs used expected check arrivals while another set used a “worst case” series of check arrivals. With a minimal change in their formulation, the optimal number of machines for any volume of check arrivals could be determined directly.
Management Science Roundup
Authors: Dunford Fraser
Published: October 2008

Overview of following OR events:

—Canadian Operational Research Society (CORS) conference in Quebec City, held in May 1980;

—International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) conference on modeling in Laxenburg, Austria, February 25–29, 1980;

—O.R. in Yugoslavian universities.
2001: Can Management Science Keep Up?
Authors: Zentner René D.
Published: October 2008

For the remainder of the century, business will be entering new territory and encountering new perils, seizing new opportunities, and challenging new competitors. It is not sufficient that we learn a new language; what will be required is that we think and count in it as well. Whether the American corporation can cope with the changes to come will depend in large part on how perceptive, how flexible, and how dynamic the Management Sciences are in anticipating and accommodating those changes.
A Practicable Method to Identify the Excessive Consumer of Energy
Authors: Turley Richard E. , Bui Minh
Published: October 2008

This paper describes the development of an energy audit procedure which identifies relatively high energy consumers within specific energy consumer groups. The method is approximate, but practicable. The authors admit to the likelihood of both Type 1 and 2 errors, but show how such errors are resolved. The method has been adopted by Utah's State Energy Office as part of their energy auditing program.
Psychosociological Techniques for Mass Transit Development: A French Experience
Authors: Rochefort Philippe
Published: October 2008

This paper describes a set of techniques which has been implemented in France over the past five years to help the significant development in mass transit that took place in most French cities. It does not refer to any sophisticated and/or new methodology but rather emphasizes a comprehensive approach to users' concerns. The starting point of this work is an observation. The users' perception of reality has very little in common with the operators' perceptions of the same reality.
Applications Reviews
Authors: Millen Roger N. , Hall John R.
Published: October 2008

An overview of recent articles from Management Science (TIMS), Management Science, Decision Sciences (AIDS), MIS Quarterly (SMIS and MISRC), and Operations Research.
Introducing Field Consulting in the Industrial Management Curriculum
Authors: Gelders Ludo F.
Published: October 2008

This paper reports the author's experience with a systematic effort to involve graduate industrial management students in field consulting within the limits of their master's thesis. Results proved to be outstanding for all parties concerned.
The Optimization of the Fire Service
Authors: Rutstein Ron
Published: October 2008

This story is based, loosely, on a genuine study of fire service operations and illustrates the difficulties which can occur in the interpretation of statistical data. The author would like to assure the sponsors of the work that all the pitfalls and temptations described in this fable were avoided in the genuine study.
Computer Assistance in Labor-Management Negotiations
Authors: Fraser Niall M. , Hipel Keith W.
Published: October 2008

Costly problems of conflict between parties with different objectives occur frequently in business and industry. One particular example of this arises in labor-management negotiations. In this paper a hypothetical labor-management conflict is examined using a new interactive microcomputer-based conflict analysis program. The conflict analysis is performed in a step-by-step manner from the point of view of an external arbitrator, with screen displays from the program presented at each step. The program provides a convenient medium for coming to conclusions about correct actions in a conflict situation, and thus to the resolution of the labor-management confrontation.
Quantitative Analysis of Some Decision Rules for Family Planning in an Oriental Society
Authors: Goh T. N.
Published: October 2008

Family planning and population control efforts in Singapore face the difficulty that in an oriental society, many parents prefer to have at least a son and to have children of both sexes. This paper presents an analysis of some actual data to highlight this phenomenon, and considers various plausible alternatives to the “Girl or Boy, Two is Enough” decision rule promulgated by the government. With common probabilistic concepts and models, it is shown that limitation of children and parental satisfaction may not be seriously conflicting goals, as commonly believed. The results underscore the fact that, in situations where probabilistic outcomes are involved, intuitive expectations quite often are at variance with understanding brought about through analytical studies.
Value Analysis: A Technique for Implementing Systems Thinking in the Organization
Authors: Mehra Satish , Bretz Robert W.
Published: October 2008

With the accelerating cost of manufacturing and the consumer's desire for a new or better product, more need is placed on the department or subsystems within an organization to minimize individual power struggles that result in organizational suboptimization. Systems such as MRP have been developed to control material requirements, and resource allocation systems have been employed to make more efficient use of resources and personnel assignment systems. Worker productivity techniques have been developed and implemented to maximize use of available workers and increase work performance. Most organizations have overlooked a technique called value analysis for making decisions which encourages interdepartmental agreement on goals which result in lower costs and/or improved products or services. This paper describes the systematic process by which value analysis can be applied in an organization to provide a new item or better service using interdepartmental inputs and considerations in order to achieve reduced cost and improved quality.
The Pits of OR/MS and Gamesmanship to Skirt the Rim
Authors: Davis Michael W. , Robinson Philip E.
Published: October 2008

The implementation of OR/MS techniques and methodologies requires a profound knowledge of systems, mathematics, and numerous other disciplines which lend themselves to the particular problem at hand. In most academic endeavors the burgeoning analyst is barraged with analytical complexities considered pertinent in attacking relevant OR/MS problems. Unfortunately, this acquired knowledge is normally lacking a major ingredient paramount to most successful applications. This skill is left to assimilation through years of “Trial by ordeal” vs formal training. Specifically, we speak of that segment of our profession unrelated to our analytical capabilities but dealing with the recognition of human behavior or organizational interactions and the associated practicality of complex analytical tools. Five such “pits” and their implications are discussed, along with the basic nature of pit excavation. The opinions and material presented herein are those of the authors and are detached from any organizations to which they are or have been associated.
Probabilistic Cost Estimating for the Great Plains Coal Gasification Plant
Authors: Rice Thomas R. , Borison Adam B.
Published: October 2008

Uncertainty in energy supply investment decisions is a significant and growing problem because of inflation, longer lead times, the growing complexity of emerging technology, and other economic and environmental factors. Traditional methods of incorporating uncertainty into cost analyses through such factors as “contingency” or “unallocated cost” are unable to quantify this growing range of uncertainty. Applied Decision Analysis, Inc. (ADA) has applied a unique approach to the plant proposed by Great Plains Gasification Associates to gasify North Dakota lignite. The cost analysis explicitly incorporates the uncertainty and complexity of the investment decision in an understandable, systematic fashion. The key concept is the use of probability to describe uncertainty. Probabilities in the analysis represent expert opinions; they show the range within which a variable is likely to fall, and the relative likelihood of each interval within the range. The bottom line is a direct measure of the risk of the project—a probability distribution on the relevant cost variable. In addition, the study serves as a lasting tool for clarifying perceptions regarding uncertainty, understanding their implications, and communicating these results among the parties involved.
The Application of O.R. to Small Food Firms in Developing Countries: Report of a Workshop
Authors: Rand Graham K.
Published: October 2008

The International Development Research Centre held a workshop in Singapore, 13–17 October 1980, entitled “Approaches to Process Improvement for Small Food Industry in Developing Countries.” The aim was to discuss the use of quantitative techniques for improving the production process of the small food processing sector in developing countries. This paper describes the workshop, reports on its conclusions, and comments on the use of OR in small firms and in developing countries.
Decision Support Systems: The Real Substance
Authors: Wagner G. R.
Published: October 2008

Over the past three to five years, an increasing number of computer-based models and information systems have proven directly useful to executives. These systems, developed and used according to novel approaches, actually seem to enhance managers' thinking processes. A new school of thought called DSS (Decision Support Systems) discerns certain unifying principles among such systems and holds forth considerable promise for widespread implementation.

DSS principles are just now being developed and understood. If the DSS concept has a valid core, it must be secured against adulteration and overburdening by evidence drawn from actual practice. To this end, a questionnaire survey was undertaken, which is reported here. It was conducted among the users of an advanced planning or modeling language used for building and using Decision Support Systems. The results indicate that the applications of this language largely coincide with certain norms of the DSS concept. The touchstone and hallmark of a DSS is apparently that it provides “Executive Mind Support.”
The Fifth Column—Newton's Law of Experts
Authors: Leon Say J.-B.
Published: October 2008

The real author wrote this paper under the pseudonym J.-B. Leon Say.

An Editor's note about an organization that had an OR expert on staff. The person was not too helpful in solving real problems that came up in projects but was very good to counter expert witnesses in court if the organization was sued about some issue.
Information Systems in Management Science—Comments by Column Editor
Authors: Vazsonyi Andrew
Published: October 2008

Comments by the column editor on mixed strategies and on utility theory.
Management Science and Jury Size
Authors: Nagel Stuart S.
Published: October 2008

It is impossible in a short article to sort out all the inter-related strands that together constitute the procedures of criminal justice in the United States. Clearly, a most basic principle should be to maximize conviction of the guilty and minimize conviction of the innocent, to the degree that these two goals can be sought simultaneously. This paper isolates the single element of jury size as it relates to the optimizing of these two goals. The number of jurors (usually 6 to 12 in criminal cases) is popularly, and correctly perceived to affect the probability of outcome of any trial: the difficulty lies in determining the several ways that this takes place and relating them correctly. The study described in this paper, based on the quantification of substantial legal data and extensive modeling assumptions, was quoted in some detail in a US Supreme Court case determining the constitutionality of less than six-person juries. The article is preceeded a note from Gene Woolsey, the Editor of the journal.
Sequencing and Scheduling in Real Time—Quickly
Authors: Maxfield Margaret W.
Published: October 2008

This simple graphical method sequences the individual activities that make up a project, at the same time obtaining a preliminary early start schedule. More elementary than the Critical Path Method (CPM), it uses ordinary counting of time units rather than topological networks. Experience with ordinary Gantt charts makes it easy to learn from an example.
An Information System for Allocating Coach Stock on Indian Railways
Authors: Ramani K. V.
Published: October 2008

A computerized information system for coach stock has been designed and developed for the zonal railway subsystem of Western Railway in India at the Computer Center, Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. The system can be used to study the coach utilization for any zonal railway, or for Indian Railways as a whole with some minor modifications.
Seen Elsewhere
Authors: Morgan J. I.
Published: October 2008

Digests presented:

—MORE PRODUCTIVITY WILL NOT SOLVE OUR PROBLEMS (Business and Society Review Fall 1980, pp. 10–18), by Jay W. Forrester (Massachusetts Institute of Technology).

—TOWARD A RATIONAL STRATEGY FOR OIL EXPLORATION (Scientific American Vol. 244, No. 1, Jan. 1981, pp. 55–65), by H. William Menard (Scripps Institution of Oceanography).

—NEW DEMAND FOR MANAGING MANAGEMENT SCIENCE (Journal of Systems Management November 1979, Vol. 30, No. 11, pp. 6–19), by Edward F. Konczal (AT&T Long Lines).
Uncertainty and the Model Builder
Authors: Brown Kelth C.
Published: October 2008

An essay about the economics of information and decision uncertainty and its possible profound influence in the perception of economic behavior.
The Seven Most Frequent Causes of Simulation Analysis Failure—And How to Avoid Them
Authors: Annino Joseph S. , Russell Edward C.
Published: October 2008

A US Government Accounting Office Report (GAO Report LCD-75-11) identified 519 federally funded models. Development of these models cost about $39 million. Fifty-seven of these models, each costing over $100,000 to develop, were selected for review. GAO found that although successfully developed models can be of assistance in the management of federal programs, many of these model development efforts experienced: 1. Failure to define an achievable goal, 2. Incomplete mix of essential skills, 3. Inadequate level of user participation, 4. Inappropriate levels of detail, 5. Inappropriate language, 6. Using an unverified or invalid model and 7. Failure to use modem tools and techniques.
Management Science Process—Understanding the Benefits of Poor Communications
Authors: Graham Robert J.
Published: October 2008

There have been many reports of Management Science projects failing to be implemented even when it seemed that there were clearly obvious benefits to be realized upon such implementation. One such benefit that is often assumed during a Management Science project is that the development and implementation of a model will help to improve communications in an organization. This is particularly true with the normative type models such as PERT/CPM where improved communications is touted as one of the major benefits of the modelling process. Since better communication is often cited as a need in many organizations, one would think that models which aid in improving communications would be sought after with vigor. But experience has shown otherwise. This could lead one to surmise that better communication is not a desired goal in some organizations and that perhaps there are some people actually benefitting from poor communication. This essay will address the idea of the benefits of poor communication and argue that consideration of the effects of such benefits should be a part of any Management Science process.
Applications Reviews
Authors: Millen Roger N. , Hail John R.
Published: October 2008

An overview of articles published in Management Science, Operations Research, and Policy Analysis.
A Totally New Direction for Management Education: A Modest Proposal
Authors: Glauque William C. , Woolsey R. E. D.
Published: October 2008

“The major problem with business school graduates,” a businessman told us recently, “is that I have to train them for two years after graduation to do me any good. The first year they have to unlearn what they learned in school, and the second they start learning the business.”

This is hardly a ringing endorsement of management education, but is repeated too often to be ignored. Despite the undeniable accomplishments of graduate education in management, many managers ruefully agree with Robert Townsend's advice not to hire Harvard MBA's. The article proposes a completely new way of educating managers in business schools so that they perform better in real practice.
An Algorithm for Setting the List Price of a Residential Real Estate Property
Authors: Bandyopadhyay Jayanta K. , Bandyopadhyay Bratati
Published: October 2008

The market value of a residential real estate property may be considered as a function of its qualitative as well as quantitative characteristics. An algorithm is presented in this paper which incorporates the effects of the qualitative features by dividing the total housing population into several subpopulations, and calculates the influence of the quantitative variables by using a multiple regression technique. It also uses a computer-based adaptive process for incorporating the dynamic behavior of the market situation. The application of this algorithm is demonstrated with an empirical study.
Management Science and Jury Size: A Commentary
Authors: Gehrlein William V.
Published: October 2008

The analogy of a jury decision is a common one when discussing the Management Science application of quality control. An incoming lot is “innocent” until proven “guilty” by inspection. There are costs for “convicting” a good lot and there are costs for “acquitting” a bad lot. Military standard acceptance sampling tables even allow us the option of using more discriminating sampling plans when the cost of making errors by too frequent “conviction” is high, relative to the converse situation.

The general concern of the article is to estimate the impact of reducing jury size from the traditional number of twelve jurors. Some important factors are that in 64.2% of cases with 12 jurors, there is a unanimous vote to convict. Similarly, in 30.3% of these cases there is a unanimous vote to acquit. If jury sizes are reduced, it seems unlikely that any unanimous 12-person jury decision would change. That is, arguments were presented in a trial to convince all 12 jurors to have the same opinion. By reducing the jury size during that trial, there seems to be no reason to expect that remaining jurors would reverse their opinion, with all other things being the same.
Reply to William Gehrlein's Commentary
Authors: Nagel Stuart S.
Published: October 2008

It is pleasing to see Management Science people show increasing concern for public sector problems, including problems that relate to the legal process. It is particularly pleasing to participate in the give and take of developing improved public sector applications, including ones that relate to the Supreme Court's concern for determining when standards of due process, equal protection, or other constitutional rights have been violated. This reply to Gehrlein, William V. 1981. Management science and jury size: A commentary. Interfaces 11 (4, August) 67–69 is written in that light.
The Importance of Impediments to Implementation
Authors: Meredith Jack R.
Published: October 2008

An extensive literature has accumulated regarding methods to enhance implementation of management decision models and computer-based information systems. This article reviews the appropriateness of organizational impediments to implementation in protecting the organization from ill-conceived or inappropriate decision methodologies and information generators and filters. Typical faults of models and systems resulting in implementation failure are reviewed, and the desirability of such failure is discussed.
Teaching OR/MS as a Service Course in Business/Management Schools
Authors: Chen Milton M.
Published: October 2008

A series of heated exchanges has taken place in OR/MS regarding the utility of certain techniques and the teaching format. This paper focuses on the teaching of OR/MS as a service course in a business curriculum.
Optimizing Course Content
Authors: Wilson Glenn T. , Aucamp Donald C. , Barringer Robert L. , Fogarty Donald W.
Published: October 2008

We were recently forced to spend some time on a committee re-evaluating course content of our department's graduate Production Management course. As is usual in such meetings, we quickly reached a point of diminishing returns, with the discussion going round in circles. However, since we were Management Scientists, we put the situation to good use by constructing a mathematical model of our problem, which will be presented below.

This is a neat theoretical application which is quite weak on data, since the value curves depend on the individual professor's subjective assessments. However, it proved to be a useful way of organizing our thinking about a controversial situation.
Applications Reviews
Authors: Millen Roger N. , Hall John R. , Sauter Vicki L.
Published: October 2008

An overview of recent articles from Growth and Change, Decision Sciences (AIDS), Management Science, MIS Quarterly (SMIS/MISRC), Operations Research, Policy Analysis, Policy Sciences, Regional Science and Urban Economics, and Socio-Economic Planning Sciences.
MBA Can Mean “Management by Action”
Authors: Stainton R. S.
Published: October 2008

Most MBA's are by their very nature theoretical; they are taught in an artificial environment, and are commended when they can incorporate practical work as well as theory. The MBA at Henley turns these objectives around; it is designed to ensure that practical projects interrelate with necessary management theory.
Educating the Future Users of O.R.
Authors: McClure Richard H.
Published: October 2008

We are currently educating in the business schools future managers, decision makers, and potential users of Operations Research. Many business schools have at least one required course in OR at the graduate and/or undergraduate level. How this course is taught can have an important impact on how these future managers view the usefulness and importance of OR as an aid in their decision-making processes. The required Operations Research course is therefore a topic worthy of serious consideration by professionals in the field.
The Operations/Management Sciences Audit
Authors: Burnham John M.
Published: October 2008

If the key to successful auditing is an experienced person or team, then the creation and use of checklists of mandatory interview subjects and functions must be the audit's handmaiden. Perhaps the most difficult part of operations auditing for the Management Scientist is approach through the behavioral rather than the quantitative dimension. In addition, this has turned out to be an excellent vehicle for training students, as well as a source of valuable case material.
Information Systems in Management Science—A Case Study of a Decision Analysis: Hamlet's Soliloquy
Authors: Dalkey Norman C.
Published: October 2008

An illustration of the course of thought and decision made by Hamlet from the point of view of the modern decision science.
An Application of Linear Programming to Bank Financial Planning
Authors: Balbirer Sheldon D. , Shaw David
Published: October 2008

The fundamental issues facing senior bank management revolve around the structuring of a bank's balance sheet. Since yields can be assigned to each asset category, and costs to each liability category, the profits of the bank can be represented in terms of its balance sheet position. Thus, a bank's financial goal of maximizing returns to shareholders through maximizing profits can be translated into the operational goal of achieving some target end-of-period balance sheet position producing the greatest profits.

This paper describes a successful application of linear programming for assisting the management of Central Carolina Bank and Trust Company (CCB) in their financial planning process.
OR/MS Education
Authors: Greenberg Irwin
Published: October 2008

One might be heretical enough to question the advisability of offering formal educational programs in OR/MS; this thought occurred to me recently while preparing a final examination for an “Introduction to …” course I was teaching. Using the time-honored pedagogical device of copying questions from the exercises in texts other than the one being used in the course, I happened to pick up the first OR text I ever taught from; Sasieni, Yaspan, and Friedman's Operations Research: Methods and Problems, published by Wiley in 1959. Looking through the book reminded me of what I taught that class 20 years earlier: linear programming, dynamic programming, inventory models, scheduling, simulation, waiting lines, game theory, and reliability. The only topic not in that text that currently finds its way into OR/MS courses is PERT/CPM.
The Management Science Achievement Award Tenth Annual Competition: 1981
Authors: Root James G.
Published: October 2008

Editorial about the Prize of 1981. The ANR Freight System is the winner of the 1981 Management Science Achievement Award for its innovative, technically advanced, and effective use of Management Science to improve customer service and profitability in the face of a recession-induced decline in truck freight traffic. The award was accepted by William C. Oswald, Vice President of Marketing.
From Freight Flow and Cost Patterns to Greater Profitability and Better Service for a Motor Carrier
Authors: Barker Henry H. , Sharon Ed M. , Sen Dilip K.
Published: October 2008

Two complex motor-carrier problems were solved by Management Science in the past few years by subsidiaries of the ANR Freight System. They involved efforts to improve profitability through an understanding of factors contributing to (a) Less-Than-Truck-Load (LTL) intercity linehaul productivity and (b) Truck-Load (TL) costing. The traditional approach of analyzing one lane at a time proved totally inadequate in a 50-city system with thousands of interdependent freight lanes.

Linehaul productivity is sensitive to shifts in freight-flow patterns, such as seasonal variations or the 20% truck tonnage drop caused by the recession. The dangers to be avoided in the TL business are: (1) discouraging potentially profitable business by overestimating variable cost (such as backhaul), or, conversely, (2) soliciting potentially unprofitable freight. Decision aids were developed for both LTL and TL freight.

Total profit increase since the study was implemented in May 1980 is estimated at $9 million per year, plus a one-time direct benefit of $3 million from eliminating the need for a new freight reship facility.

Indirect benefits included service and market improvements, better management of equipment and drivers, etc. The philosophical impact on management perception and perspective was enormous. More accurate decision-making rules replaced traditional trucking “rules of thumb.”
Matching Supplies to Save Lives: Linear Programming the Production of Heart Valves
Authors: Hilal Said S. , Erikson Warren
Published: October 2008

This paper describes the application of a linear programming model at American Edwards Laboratories and the resulting improved productivity in biological heart valve production. The valves are bioprostheses manufactured from porcine hearts and used for human implantation. Since valves demanded by the human population have a different size distribution than valves supplied by pigs, the result has been a supply and demand mismatch that generated hundreds of thousands of dollars of unwanted inventory. The linear programming model was utilized to determine the combination of available suppliers that would provide the best match for the demand distribution. As a result, annual savings exceeded $1,500,000, and both availability and manufacturing control were improved.
Scientific Management of Inventory on a Hand-Held Calculator
Authors: Brout Donald B.
Published: October 2008

Standard Brands is using programmable hand-held calculators in its warehouses to apply state-of-the-art mathematics to calculating safety stocks, re-order points, and order quantities of Planters Peanuts items. Each item controlled by the new system has its own card with data recorded magnetically like the data on the back of credit cards. About $10 million favorable cash flow has been generated up front, and a profit impact of $7.6 million during the first two years has been made possible by using the hand-held calculator. The impact will continue at $3.8 million per year, but this first two-year benefit would have been completely lost by the most common approach of working within a long-range MIS development program. An unusually favorable benefit-to-cost ratio reflects total equipment cost of about $9,000, and development and implementation effort measured in man weeks. Another major benefit of the work has been that the practice of Management Science became completely real and understandable to the management group; the programmed calculator has made appearances on airplanes, and over lunch tables. Top level management has been able to process some data personally, and use of the calculator in a simulation mode facilitates and encourages frequent “What if” investigations of alternative policies and practices.
Using a Dialysis Need-Projection Model for Health Planning in Massachusetts
Authors: Pliskin Joseph S. , Tell Eileen J.
Published: October 2008

More than $5.1 million in unnecessary kidney dialysis facilities, equipment, and staff has been saved in Massachusetts during the past two years as a result of a model used by the Massachusetts Department of Public Health (DPH) to predict future need for dialysis in the state. These savings constitute 63% of the total proposed capital and manpower costs for the two-year period, accomplished mainly through the denial of 59% of the 163 requests for new dialysis stations.

In addition to substantial savings in construction, new equipment and staff, the denial of these requests had several other benefits: Existing facilities have operated at more efficient levels, with lower per-patient treatment costs. Through the restriction of center dialysis supply, more patients were encouraged to utilize home dialysis. Greater reliance on home dialysis could translate into an annual savings of at least $2.6 million and an additional 333 person years as a result of the enhanced life expectancy for home dialysis patients. The need model has also been useful in more equitably distributing dialysis resources to regions in Massachusetts which have previously been underserved.

The model has been successful in predicting the need for kidney dialysis services to within 1% of actual demand. Versions of the model are now being used by the US Department of Health and Human Services and by the six Health Systems Agencies of Massachusetts. Similar models can also be used to forecast the need for other types of specialized medical care technology, such as cardiac pacemakers.
Management Science Roundup
Authors: Dunford Fraser
Published: October 2008

Review covers two topics:

—Operations Research in Bangladesh

—Operations Research in Spain, discussing its use in companies as Iberia, RENFE, and IBM, as well as in academia.
Systems Analysis and Order Processing in a Multi-Echelon System
Authors: Gleason John M.
Published: October 2008

An overview of a study of a corporate inventory of a telephone company. Most of the inventory was maintained at the regional level, whereas practically no inventory was stored at the district and local level. An analysis of possible improvements was given as it was clear that the system was developed when the company operated on a far smaller scale.
Stopping Rules for Family Planning in an Oriental Society
Authors: Ng Vee-Ming
Published: October 2008

This paper examines various stopping rules as alternatives to the “Two is Enough” decision rule promulgated by the Singapore Family Planning and Population Board in its effort to achieve zero population growth. Results indicate that the stopping rules proposed are viable alternatives which consider the effect of the percentage of fertile couples who want to have children.
The Fifth Column—On Simulation at High Altitudes or The Case of the Floating Ore Body
Authors: Woolsey Gene
Published: October 2008

An essay about elaborate OR plan for mining, equipment selection, maintenance schedules, and ultimate pit limits of a huge diamond ore deposit in Africa.
Examination Scheduling in a Large Engineering School: A Computer-Assisted Participative Procedure
Authors: Prida Romero Bernardo
Published: October 2008

A common source of conflict in many educational centers is the examination scheduling and the allocation of classrooms to examinations. This paper proposes a process where this solution is made in successive steps in interaction with the computer. This procedure has the advantage of coping with the objectives of the decision makers without the necessity of formally defining any objective function, in order to permit the choice of an acceptable solution from the feasibility set.