A framework for ensemble modelling of climate change impacts on lakes worldwide: the ISIMIP Lake Sector
Authors: Golub Malgorzata , Thiery Wim , Marcé Rafael , Pierson Don , Vanderkelen Inne , Mercado-Bettin Daniel , Woolway R. Iestyn , Grant Luke , Jennings Eleanor , Kraemer Benjamin M. , Schewe Jacob , Zhao Fang , Frieler Katja , Mengel Matthias , Bogomolov Vasiliy Y. , Bouffard Damien , Côté Marianne , Couture Raoul-Marie , Debolskiy Andrey V. , Droppers Bram , Gal Gideon , Guo Mingyang , Janssen Annette B. G. , Kirillin Georgiy , Ladwig Robert , Magee Madeline , Moore Tadhg , Perroud Marjorie , Piccolroaz Sebastiano , Raaman Vinnaa Love , Schmid Martin , Shatwell Tom , Stepanenko Victor M. , Tan Zeli , Woodward Bronwyn , Yao Huaxia , Adrian Rita , Allan Mathew , Anneville Orlane , Arvola Lauri , Atkins Karen , Boegman Leon , Carey Cayelan , Christianson Kyle , de Eyto Elvira , DeGasperi Curtis , Grechushnikova Maria , Hejzlar Josef , Joehnk Klaus , Jones Ian D. , Laas Alo , Mackay Eleanor B. , Mammarella Ivan , Markensten Hampus , McBride Chris , Özkundakci Deniz , Potes Miguel , Rinke Karsten , Robertson Dale , Rusak James A. , Salgado Rui , van der Linden​​​​​​​ Leon , Verburg Piet , Wain Danielle , Ward Nicole K. , Wollrab Sabine , Zdorovennova Galina 
Published: June 2022

Abstract. Empirical evidence demonstrates that lakes and reservoirs are warming across
the globe. Consequently, there is an increased need to project future
changes in lake thermal structure and resulting changes in lake
biogeochemistry in order to plan for the likely impacts. Previous studies of
the impacts of climate change on lakes have often relied on a single model
forced with limited scenario-driven projections of future climate for a
relatively small number of lakes. As a result, our understanding of the
effects of climate change on lakes is fragmentary, based on scattered
studies using different data sources and modelling protocols, and mainly
focused on individual lakes or lake regions. This has precluded
identification of the main impacts of climate change on lakes at global and
regional scales and has likely contributed to the lack of lake water quality
considerations in policy-relevant documents, such as the Assessment Reports
of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Here, we describe a
simulation protocol developed by the Lake Sector of the Inter-Sectoral
Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) for simulating climate change
impacts on lakes using an ensemble of lake models and climate change
scenarios for ISIMIP phases 2 and 3. The protocol prescribes lake
simulations driven by climate forcing from gridded observations and
different Earth system models under various representative greenhouse gas
concentration pathways (RCPs), all consistently bias-corrected on a
0.5∘ × 0.5∘ global grid. In ISIMIP phase 2, 11 lake
models were forced with these data to project the thermal structure of 62
well-studied lakes where data were available for calibration under
historical conditions, and using uncalibrated models for 17 500 lakes
defined for all global grid cells containing lakes. In ISIMIP phase 3, this
approach was expanded to consider more lakes, more models, and more
processes. The ISIMIP Lake Sector is the largest international effort to
project future water temperature, thermal structure, and ice phenology of
lakes at local and global scales and paves the way for future simulations of
the impacts of climate change on water quality and biogeochemistry in lakes.