Iparági sérülékenység a pandémia tükrében
Authors: Hauck Zsuzsanna , Vasvári Tamás , Vörös József 
Published: December 2021

Összefoglaló. Jelen tanulmányban a termelési folyamatokat, valamint
statisztikai adatokat elemezve azt vizsgáljuk, hogy a pandémia során milyen
hatások érték az inputokat, magát a termelést, az outputokat, illetve hogyan
változtak meg olyan versenyprioritási tényezők, mint az idő, a minőség vagy a
rugalmasság. Mivel a rövidebb, a kevésbé komplex és rugalmasabb értékláncok
válságállóbbnak tűnnek, ez felgyorsíthatja az ellátási láncok regionalizációját,
amit tovább fokoz, hogy a termelőszektor gyors visszarendeződésével szemben a
szolgáltató ágazatoknak elhúzódó kilábalással kell szembenézniük. Ezért azt is
megvizsgáltuk, hogy az egyes országok ellenálló képessége függ-e a termelő
szektor méretétől. Eredményeink alapján, ahol nagyobb az ipar aránya, ott
gyorsabban képes a gazdaság talpra állni, ami újabb lökést adhat a fejlett
államok iparfejlesztési törekvéseinek.

Summary. The coronavirus epidemic posed challenges to all. However,
with proper discipline, increased efficiency and adaptability, companies and
economies can emerge stronger from this situation. In this study, we examine
vulnerability of industries along three dimensions according to the general
model of production complemented by aggregate statistics from Eurostat.

In terms of procurement, shorter value chains seem more resilient than complex
and long supply chains. Supplier risks may be also mitigated by increasing the
number of suppliers of critical inputs. The costs and risks of transporting
goods are also increasing. 90% of industrial products are involved in
international trade, mostly transported through maritime shipping that faces
significant increase in tariffs, and the difficulty of replacing crews could
lead to further disruptions to the operation of maritime routes. Thus, it is not
surprising that the pandemic has increased the issue of supply chain flexibility
and simplification, and has drawn attention to the importance of inventories and
input replacement. Companies may consider to diversify production sites or even
reshore or nearshore their production.

The rate of recovery varies in each sector: in services requiring a personal
presence, such as tourism, the sudden economic downturn is followed by a slow
growth, contrary to the rapid rebound of industrial production. Therefore,
countries with significant manufacturing will witness V-shaped recovery, while
higher reliance on services is characterized by slower and longer L-shaped
scenario. Thus, the pandemic also pointed out that industrial production is key
in a national economy: besides that industrial innovations increase productivity
(and living standards) and manufacturing functions also have a significant
multiplier effect on the service sector, manufacturing also has significant
resistance against a pandemic. This could give a further push to the ongoing
industrial development programs of developed economies such as Germany, the
United States, or the European Union. At the same time, services that are able
to move online show no decline, while service requiring a personal presence may
struggle in the long run. Overall, structural changes are inevitable and
companies have to adapt to the novel consuming and working preferences.