Mathematical modeling of management natural-technogenic-anthropogenic risks in the Arctic zone
Authors:   V. Ya. Kikot Moscow University of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, Minaev Vladimir Alexandrovich , Mokshantsev Alexander Vladimirovich ,   Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation; Academy of State Fire Service of EMERCOM of Russia, Ovsyanik Alexandr Ivanovich ,   Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation; Academy of State Fire Service of EMERCOM of Russia, Faddeev Alexander Olegovich ,   Ryazan Branch of the Kikot Moscow University of Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia
Published: December 2023

Introduction. The work examines the process of managing natural-technogenic-anthropogenic (PTA) risk in the Arctic zone (AZ) of the Russian Federation (RF). The relevance of the problem of risk assessment was confirmed, and questions about the possibility of managing natural, technogenic and anthropogenic risks in the AZ of the Russian Federation were considered. The assessment of the possibility of direct management of natural, technogenic and anthropogenic risks is given. A mathematical model for PTA risk management has been developed. The results of modeling PTA risk management were obtained. Numerical assessments of geodynamic, technogenic and anthropogenic risks were carried out for a selected part of the territory of the Russian Arctic, and the dynamics of PTA risk for various types of external and control impacts on the natural-technogenic system were analyzed. An optimal control (in % efficiency) is proposed, which takes into account the type of risk and the characteristic time interval. Goals and objectives. To develop a mathematical model for assessing the dynamics of PTA risk, to consider and analyze the results of its practical implementation for the territory of the Russian Arctic. To achieve this goal, questions about the possibility of managing PTA risk in the AZ of the Russian Federation were considered, and assessments were made of the possibility of managing PTA risk. The subject of the research is mathematical models for managing natural, technogenic and anthropogenic risks, as well as their integrated implementation in the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation. Methods. To achieve the goal and solve the research problems, methods of control theory, numerical estimation, mathematical statistics. Results and its discussion. Numerical assessments of the effectiveness of geodynamic, technogenic, anthropogenic and complex risk management for both “point-based” and distributed management have been carried out. It is shown that the optimal types of risk management are those based on constant and linear corrections of technogenic and anthropogenic risks. Conclusions. The results of assessing the effectiveness of these types of controls and their graphical interpretation in the form of distribution fields of geodynamic, technogenic, anthropogenic and complex risks are presented. The developed mathematical model for assessing the dynamics of PTA risk is presented, the results of its practical implementation are reviewed and analyzed. Keywords: Arctic zone; mathematical modeling; management; natural-technogenic-anthropogenic risk; natural-technogenic system; corrective action.