bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
FDR to Clinton, Mueller to?: A Field Essay on Presidential Approval
Authors: Gronke Paul , Newman Brian
Published: January 2007

Since the 1930s, polling organizations have asked Americans whether they “approve or disapprove of the job [the incumbent] is doing as president.” In the early 1970s, John Mueller started an academic industry by asking what drives these evaluations. American politics and the tools available to examine it have changed dramatically since then, inspiring a burst of research on presidential approval in the 1990s. We review this new body of literature, arguing that it builds on but differs importantly from earlier approval studies. Since Mueller’s writing, scholars have expanded his relatively simple model, taking account of presidents’ goals and personal characteristics, other political actors, the ubiquitous media, and an inattentive public. We describe three waves of research, focusing on the most recent wave. We suggest that history, along with new intellectual currents, data, and methods have enabled each wave to incorporate more of political, social, and psychological reality. Finally, we identify the issues most likely to motivate presidential approval research for the next ten years.
Purchasing Protection? The Effect of Political Spending on U.S. Trade Policy
Authors: Drope Jeffrey M. , Hansen Wendy L.
Published: January 2007

The issue of whether or not money influences policymaking has been widely debated in American politics. While a direct link between money and policy outcomes has proven difficult to make, bureaucratic decisions on trade protection provide an opportunity to link politically active firms and industries to policy outcomes. The U.S. International Trade Commission (ITC) and the U.S. Department of Commerce both play a major role in making trade policy by administering several important trade laws, including the U.S. antidumping law. Firms can petition the ITC and Commerce for protection from foreign firms that are alleged to engage in the unfair practice of dumping their goods on the U.S. market. Evidence suggests, however, that firms use this law as a means of seeking protection from foreign competition, even when that competition is fair. As the stakes are high for both domestic and foreign firms, there is the potential for political influence. Focusing on lobbying activities and campaign contributions, we analyze the influence of domestic and foreign monies on bureaucratic decisionmaking on trade policy.
Funding Mechanisms and Policy Instruments: How Business Campaign Contributions Influence Congressional Votes
Authors: Fellowes Matthew C. , Wolf Patrick J.
Published: January 2007

This study re-examines the influence of business campaign contributions on congressional voting behavior. We find that previous empirical work has not fully considered the distinct funding mechanisms campaign contributors use to channel funds to representatives or the diversity of legislative policy instruments used to reward contributors. We correct these shortcomings by analyzing both individual and PAC campaign contributions from business interests and building several indexes of macro business policy votes in the 105th Congress. These improved measures are used in conjunction with an assumption of “tactical rationality” that predicts legislators utilize diverse policy instruments to balance benefits and costs associated with rewarding business campaign contributors. This theoretical claim is than tested in vote choice models that, in all, account for over fifty business policy votes. Our primary findings are that businesses apparently use campaign contributions to influence favorable regulatory and tax policy votes, but are much less influential on votes for direct government expenditures that benefit business. This difference in influence by policy instrument is especially pronounced regarding contributions from individuals with business interests. We find these results to be entirely consistent with a view of rationality in which representatives seek to trade votes for campaign contributions without the appearance of an embarrassing quid pro quo.
Incumbency and Short-Term Influences on Voters
Authors: Petrocik John R. , Desposato Scott W.
Published: January 2007

Using NES surveys from 1980 through 2000, this article examines the incumbency advantage with a series of survey reports of the vote, an approach that departs from the convention of estimating the incumbent advantage with aggregate election returns. Previous work conceptualizes the incumbency advantage as a small and stable vote bonus of six to eight percentage points since about 1970, based on aggregate electoral returns. This study provides a different perspective on the incumbency advantage, considering the behavior of individual voters instead of aggregate electoral outcomes. We conceive of incumbency as an anchor that diminishes the influence of short-term tides on voters. Further, the effect of incumbency on voters is neither small nor stable, and varies systematically with short-term political tides.
Does State Political Ideology Change over Time?
Authors: Brace Paul , Arceneaux Kevin , Johnson Martin , Ulbig Stacy G.
Published: January 2007

Students of politics in the American states agree that political ideology varies significantly between the states. Due to the path-breaking work of Wright, Erikson and McIver (1985) and their subsequent research, there is consensus that interstate differences in public ideology are important in accounting for notable differences among the states in the policies they adopt. Despite this consensus, however, there remains a fundamental debate among state politics researchers regarding whether public ideology changes within the states in the post-WW II era. Erikson, Wright, and McIver (1993) contend that state-level ideology is mostly stable, with over-time variations representing “noise.” Alternatively, Berry, Ringquist, Fording, and Hanson (1998) argue that meaningful ideological change occurs within states over time. We test the hypothesis that ideology is stable at the state level. In addition to using the data developed by these teams of researchers, we construct an alternative data set to provide an out-of-sample test of their conflicting expectations. The results have significant implications for the study of state political processes. Systematic analysis underscores the stability and relative dominance of between-state differences indicating that the effects of ideology commonly observed in many state policy studies are due to interstate variation rather than temporal change. However, we also find note-worthy longitudinal ideological variation within selected states during the last three decades. Scholars interested in studying the causes and consequences of state-level political ideology—particularly their implications for public policy adoption and change—might profitably focus on the handful of states where survey-based measures indicate the presence of ideological change.
A Conditional Model of Opinion Assignment on the Supreme Court
Authors: Maltzman Forrest , Wahlbeck Paul J.
Published: January 2007

The chief justice’s power to assign the majority opinion on the U.S. Supreme Court provides an indispensable agenda-setting tool for the chief. Scholars disagree, however, on what factors guide the chief’s use of his assignment powers. Some suggest that the chief assigns cases with an eye to securing his ideological goals, while others contend that the chief prefers to ensure the efficient and harmonious operation of the Court. Rather than assuming that the chief is a single-minder seeker of either ideology or efficiency, we explore the possibility that the chief is motivated by multiple goals. In particular, we evaluate the effects of policy goals and organizational needs on the chief’s assignment decisions, and specify the conditions under which different goals appear to be paramount to the chief. Using a random-effects probit model, we examine the assignment decisions of Chief Justices Earl Warren, Warren Burger, and William Rehnquist between the 1953 and 1990 terms, and find support for a conditional model of assignment decisions.
Religious Social Networks, Indirect Mobilization, and African-American Political Participation
Authors: Mckenzie Brian D.
Published: January 2007

This study examines the mobilizing effects of informal political discussions among African-American church attenders. Specifically, I focus on indirect political encouragement through congregant social networks. I utilize data from the 1993-1994 National Black Politics Study to test models of indirect mobilization effects on voting and non-voting political activism. Findings from regression analyses demonstrate that informal political communication in churches is a more effective stimulus of political involvement than clergy messages. In particular, I argue that discussions in religious social networks increases black activism by overcoming the paradoxes of participation, developing a motivating political consciousness in citizens, and producing responsiveness to religious group civic norms. My results suggest that frequent church attendance and expectations of regular con-tact with fellow parishioners serve as important mechanisms for monitoring and re i n forcing civic norms, while clergy messages may be less effective due to their more detached connection with black church attenders.
Do Women Candidates Play to Gender Stereotypes? Do Men Candidates Play to Women? Candidate Sex and Issues Priorities on Campaign Websites
Authors: Dolan Kathleen
Published: January 2007

While previous research indicates that voters hold gender-based stereotypes of women and men candidates for elected office, the degree to which candidate actions contribute to these views is less well known. The research reported here attempts to determine whether candidates appeal to gender-based stereotypes by choosing to campaign on issues that are in line with voter expectations. Specifically, it examines whether women candidates for Congress in 2000 and 2002 presented campaign issues that were different from those presented by their male opponents and whether these issues conform to expected gender stereotypes, and then compares these findings to that of a men-only race comparison group. Content analysis of campaign web sites is employed to examine the campaign images presented by these candidates. Contrary to assumptions, women in 2000 and 2002 did not focus their issue priorities on a set of gender-stereotyped issues, but instead campaigned on a set of topics that were similar to those of their male opponents.
Donor Positioning: Development Assistance from the U.S., Japan, France, Germany, and Britain
Authors: Lebovic James H.
Published: January 2007

In this study, I show that traditional models fail to account for a theoretically important, windfall profit that countries receive from their primary donors and that a consequence of neglecting this “bonus effect” is that models understate important (indirect) effects of donor interests on aid. Using a Heckman treatment model, I assess bilateral aid distributed to 101 countries, between 1970 and 1994, by the U.S., Japan, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom, the OECD’s five largest bilateral aid donors. These five analyses assume that, for a prospective aid recipient, a donor makes two interrelated decisions: (1) how much aid to give that country and (2) how to position itself relative to other donors (i.e., whether or not to be the primary donor). The findings support realist and neo-liberal arguments about the sources of donor aid policy.
Constituency Size and Incumbent Safety: A Reexamination
Authors: Lascher Edward L.
Published: January 2007

Existing literature suggests that, if anything, larger constituencies make reelection more challenging for legislative incumbents. Yet theoretical arguments commonly are unclear about why more populous constituencies should disadvantage incumbents relative to challengers. Additionally, most empirical research has focused on congressional races, none of which involve small populations. I argue that there is good reason to believe that smaller size enhances challenger viability and thereby lowers incumbent safety. I also provide an empirical analysis of the relationship between constituency size and incumbent safety, focusing on individual contests featuring an enormous variance in district population and other research advantages: races for positions as California county supervisors. Controlling for both candidate and demographic variables, and examining both likelihood of winning and incumbent vote percentage, I find that there is a modest but consistent positive relationship between constituency size and incumbent safety.
Good Money and Bad Money: Do Funding Sources Affect Electoral Outcomes?
Authors: Alexander Brad
Published: January 2007

There is lively public debate about the normative impact of different kinds of money in elections. However, there is surprisingly little examination of the practical impact that funding sources have on election outcomes. Even if we assume that voters do not care directly about campaign finance, there may still be incentives built into the system to discourage fundraising from some sources and encourage it from others. Therefore, I examine the actual impact of out-of-state donations, PAC donations, and self-financing on election outcomes in open seat House elections in the 1996, 1998, 2000 and 2002 cycles. I find that some kinds of fundraising are correlated with success, while others are correlated with failure, although at a lesser level than district partisanship or total campaign spending. These results offer promise for addressing some measurement issues in the congressional election field, as well as possible directions for future research.
Elite Cues and Citizen Disagreement with Expert Opinion
Authors: Darmofal David
Published: January 2007

Though scholars have long been concerned about the quality of citizens’ political decision making, we still know little about why citizens disagree with the best-informed opinion in society, that of public policy experts. In this article, I examine the factors that lead citizens to disagree with expert opinion on questions of public policy. I find that both elite cues and individual-level attributes of citizens lead individuals to disagree with experts. In contrast to the expectations of many recent studies of cue taking, I find that citizens are more likely to disagree with expert opinion when political elites they favor challenge this opinion. Citizens also disagree with experts as a consequence of low levels of knowledge, existing policy preferences, and life experiences. The study’s results challenge the optimistic conclusions of many recent studies of cue taking and argue that there is significant value in the conventional wisdom that preceded these studies. Elite cues are not a consistent means to effective policy judgments. Instead, when it comes to reaching effective policy decisions, there is no substitute for knowledge.
Separate and Unequal Effects: Information, Political Sophistication and Negative Advertising in American Elections
Authors: Stevens Daniel
Published: January 2007

This article examines the effects of negative political advertising in American elections. Studies of negative advertising have become unproductively bogged down on the question of whether or not more or less exposure to negative advertising leads to higher or lower turnout. I take a step back in the causal chain by looking at its effect on the kinds of information individuals bring to the voting decision. I present and test a theory that individuals lower in political sophistication gain little or no information from negative advertising. In contrast, higher sophisticates gain a great deal of information. The theory is tested in an experiment and through analysis of American National Election Study (ANES) data. The results are largely confirmatory. Analysis of the ANES data also illustrates that the effects of exposure to negative advertising on information levels differ from, and are more normatively troubling than, those of positive advertising.
The Corporate Person and Democratic Politics
Authors: Gerencser Steven
Published: January 2007

This essay considers the political rights of corporations, as vested in their claim to legal personhood, and the complications such rights present to theories of democracy. While corporate personhood has generated significant debate in the field of jurisprudence, it has gone largely unnoticed in democratic theory. This article first highlights significant features in the legal theory and standing of corporate personhood. It then critically considers how well one significant current approach to democratic theory, deliberative democracy, is situated to handle corporations as entities with political rights. The essay closes by arguing that the collision between legal practices that recognize political rights of persons that may not be human individuals and political theories that presume individual human beings as the primary political subjects reveals the need for a broader conception of agency in democratic theory. Such a conception of agency would, by freeing itself of simple assumptions of human subjectivity, be more attuned to various types of inequality of power that frustrate democratic decisionmaking.
The Relationship Between Political Parties and Interest Groups: Explaining Patterns of PAC Contributions to Candidates for Congress
Authors: Brunell Thomas L.
Published: January 2007

Interest groups are policy maximizers, while political parties are focused on maximizing the number of seats they win in Congress. These competing goals have important implications for the relationship between interest groups and parties. In this study I develop and test a theory concerning the patterns of hard money contributions from Political Action Committees (PACs) to candidates for the U.S. Congress. I argue that interest groups have preferences as to which party controls a majority of seats in Congress, which leads them to direct “sincere” and electorally useful money to this party (i.e., labor groups prefer Democrats, corporate groups prefer Republicans). When interest groups donate funds to the “other” party, the donations are designed to have as minimal electoral impact as possible. Interest groups accomplish this by giving “strategic” donations to this party in the following way: donate less money almost exclusively to incumbents (who typically do not need the money in order to be reelected). Thus, while many PACs do give money to both Democrats and Republicans, which indicates the importance of access, it is evident from the overall pattern of donations that these groups clearly favor either one party or the other.
Collective Action, Environmental Activism, and Air Quality Policy
Authors: Lubell Mark , Vedlitz Arnold , Zahran Sammy , Alston Letitia T.
Published: January 2007

This article attempts to respond to Ostrom’s call for a behavioral model of collective action by generalizing the collective interest model of mass political action to explain citizen policy support and personal behavioral intentions in the context of air quality policy. The collective action problems inherent in air quality policy provide a critical research setting for testing hypotheses of the collective interest model. Key elements of the collective interest model—perceived risk, trust in policy elites, knowledge of the policy problem, and efficacy—are found to be directly, and positively, related to support of government policies and intentions to engage in personal behaviors that might improve air quality. The article discusses the implications for using the collective interest model as general behavioral theory of collective action.
Judging a Book by its Cover: Beauty and Expectations in the Trust Game
Authors: Wilson Rick K. , Eckel Catherine C.
Published: January 2007

This research examines one mechanism by which people decide whether to trust strangers. Using a laboratory setting that provides subjects with controlled information about their counterparts, we test whether attractive subjects gain a “beauty premium” in a game involving trust and reciprocity. Attractive trustees are viewed as more trustworthy; they are trusted at higher rates and as a consequence earn more in the first stage of the game. Attractiveness does not guarantee higher earnings, as we find a “beauty penalty” attached to attractive trusters in the second stage of the game. This penalty arises because attractive trusters do not live up to expectations of them on the part of the trustees. Trustees withhold repayment when their expectations are dashed. `This punishment is larger when the disappointing truster is attractive.
Fiscal Federalism and Budgetary Tradeoffs in the American States
Authors: Nicholson-Crotty Sean , Theobald Nick A. , Wood B. Dan
Published: January 2007

Despite the massive scale of state-level budgeting, there currently exists no theoretically grounded and empirically sound examination of budgetary tradeoffs at this level of government. In order to provide such an examination, we extend a well-accepted approach to tradeoffs at the federal level in order to accommodate the unique intergovernmental aspects of state-level budgeting. We develop expectations that need for a good, ideology of state-level decisionmakers, and the relative amounts of federal grants received in each expenditure category all influence tradeoff decisions. We test these hypotheses in an analysis of budgetary decisions in all 50 states between 1971 and 1996.
Comparing GEE and Robust Standard Errors for Conditionally Dependent Data
Authors: Zorn Christopher
Published: January 2007

In recent years political scientists have become increasingly sensitive to questions of conditional dependence in their data. I outline and compare two general, widely-used approaches for addressing such dependence—robust variance estimators and generalized estimating equations (GEEs)—using data on votes in Supreme Court search and seizure decisions between 1963 and 1981. The results make clear that choices about the unit on which data are grouped, i.e., clustered, are typically of far greater significance than are decisions about which type estimator is used.
Just How Pluralist Is Direct Democracy? The Structure of Interest Group Participation in Ballot Proposition Elections
Authors: Bowler Shaun , Hanneman Robert
Published: January 2007

In this article we look at the pattern of interest group engagement in direct democracy elections. Using a social network analysis of campaign contributions we examine whether or not patterns of group conflict conform to a stable split along a single (left/right) dimension. While we find that it is the case that there are stable components to group participation in direct democracy elections and that group alliances do lie along a left/right dimension we also find this characterization to be a simplification of actual patterns of engagement. Not only is there evidence of single-issue engagement, there is also evidence of a second—insider/outsider—dimension to direct democracy politics.
Winners, Losers, and Election Context: Voter Responses to the 2000 Presidential Election
Authors: Craig Stephen C. , Martinez Michael D. , Gainous Jason , Kane James G.
Published: January 2007

Elections are sometimes seen as legitimizing institutions, promoting system-level support among citizens by allowing them to have input into the political process. However, prior research has found that this is less true among supporters of losing candidates, who often exhibit lower levels of political trust and satisfaction with democracy. We analyze NES survey data from 1964 to 2004, as well as surveys from Florida and the nation following the controversial presidential election of 2000, and find that (1) losers exhibit lower levels of political trust, satisfaction with democracy, confidence that government is responsive to citizens, and in early 2001 were less inclined to extend legitimacy to the newly elected president; (2) losers also are more likely to endorse “rationalizations” as explanations of the election outcome, to be less satisfied with the choice of candidates offered in the election, and to perceive the electoral process as unfair; and (3) voter interpretations of the election mediate the relationships between winning/losing on the one hand, and trust, responsiveness, and satisfaction with democracy on the other. These findings suggest that the so-called legitimizing function of elections is far from a universal phenomenon.
Urban and Rural Representation and State Legislative Apportionment
Authors: White John P. , Thomas Norman C.
Published: January 2007

The complexion of societies and civilizations change, often with amazing rapidity. A nation once primarily rural in character becomes predomi nantly urban. Representative schemes once fair and equitable become archaic and dated. (Chief Justice Warren, in Reynolds v. Sims.)
Class, Commerce, and the State: Economic Discourse and Lockean Liberalism in the Seventeenth Century
Authors: Harpham Edward J.
Published: January 2007

The Country gentleman who is most concerned with the right ordering of trade, both in duty and in interest, is of all others the most remote from any true notions of it, or sense of his stake in it. It is high time somebody should awaken and inform him that he may in his place look a little after it. Locke to John Cary, 2 May 1696
Political Parties: The Missing Variable in Women and Politics Research
Authors: Baer Denise L.
Published: January 2007

An explosion in the literature on women and politics has been stimulated by the contemporary women's movement. This paper argues that an early diversity in theoretical orientation and methodology has been replaced by a narrow orthodoxy characterized by the use of polling and the survey method, and the theoretical voting behavior model employed by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan. Left out of this approach is the study of political parties as organizations-a variable presented here as essential to the study of women in politics. The image of parties in women and politics scholarship is surveyed, as are the theoretical implications of ignoring women's gains in political parties in such studies.
Communitarian Politics and the Problem of Equality
Authors: Lund William R.
Published: January 2007

Both liberals and communitarians grant normative weight to equality. To adjudicate their on-going debate, we need to clarify the meanings they attribute to that ambiguous concept. This paper analyzes a communitar ian conception of equality, and criticizes its practical implications. At the bottom of this account, we find a virtue-centered ethical theory that assumes citizens are equally interested in true human "flourishing." Communitarians define that flourishing as living virtuously within a community committed to participatory democracy and a substantive conception of the common good. This conception of equality shapes their account of legitimate politics, including the denial of a strong right of privacy. Thus, the communitarians' occasionally troubling policy stands are not simply specific and eliminable errors. They are, instead, deeply rooted in the structure of their theory, and, absent serious modifications, a reconsideration of liberal alternatives is in order.
Policy Design, Social Regulation, and Theory Building: Lessons from the Traffic Safety Policy Arena
Authors: Durant Robert F. , Legge Jerome S.
Published: January 2007

Despite the interest of political scientists in social regulatory policy implementation, only recently has the policy design movement begun classifying and assessing the comparative advantage of various policy "tools" or implements. This study seeks to advance understanding of social regulatory policy tools by assessing their potential as a vehicle for developing midrange theories of policy design. Analysis of Michigan traffic safety data indicates that those pursuing policy design research should anticipate that: (1) enforcement effects vary across regulatory tools; (2) attributes such as "birth order" and "precision of targeting" can condition the impact of various types of social regulatory tools differently; (3) success is conditioned not only by implement attributes, but also by implementation styles, contexts, and target populations; and (4) the comparative advantage of any tool can be assessed accurately only by considering its interaction with other implements across these disparate styles, contexts, and target populations.
Why Efforts to Equalize School Funding Have Failed: Towards a Positive Theory
Authors: Mintrom Michael
Published: January 2007

With the growth of the suburbs and the strengthening relationship between income and household location, large differences have emerged in the values of the local property tax bases that fund public schools. Since the 1970s, court rulings have led states to attempt to equalize school funding by increasing state support. But large funding differences remain. While these differences and the impact of equalization efforts have been analyzed at length, the question of why equalization has failed has largely been ignored. This paper addresses that gap. By considering the incentives of legislators, taxpayers, and parents of school students, I explore the political economy of school funding, using evidence from New Jersey. My analysis suggests that equalization efforts will generally be opposed or undermined by various local-level actors. It also suggests that advocates of other funding reforms may face significant challenges from those preferring the status quo.
A Paradox of Voting: Cyclical Majorities and the Case of Muscle Shoals
Authors: Neufeld John L. , Hausman William J. , Rapoport Ronald B.
Published: January 2007

Although social choice theorists have long recognized the theoretical possibility of cyclical majorities in democratic settings, it has been difficult to find a clear example of cyclical voting in a real-world setting. This is at least partly due to the fact that legislative rules suppress their appearance. This paper identifies and examines a definitive and significant example of cyclical voting. The cycle occurred in a series of votes in the U.S. Senate during one week in January 1925 on the issue of what the federal government should do with the Muscle Shoals works, initiated during World War I and still a significant political issue in the 1920s.
Political-Economic Factors Influencing State Medicaid Policy
Authors: Grogan Colleen M.
Published: January 2007

A political-economic theory is developed to explain the formation of public policy in the American states; here, I focus specifically on states' Medicaid policy decisions. I analyze three dimensions of Medicaid policy-financial eligibility, categorical eligibility, and benefit coverage-and argue that each dimension represents a different political process. My theory assumes that state politicians maximize their political utility by attempting to satisfy the preferences of voters, interest groups and their own ideology, while at the same time they minimize their political disutility by attempting to keep the political costs of their actions as low as possible However, I postulate further that the political process varies according to the degree to which consti tuents are interested in the policy, the strength of interest groups, and poli ticians' political ideology. To test this theory, I use a heteroskedastic, timewise autoregressive model for panel data. My theory is fairly well supported by the empirical results: the Medicaid policy dimensions do represent different political processes, and politicians must trade off the utility gained from increasing spending with the utility lost from increasing public expendi tures. However, contrary to my theory, politicians' political ideology plays a significant role in all the Medicaid policy decisions.
District Conditions and Primary Divisiveness in Congressional Elections
Authors: Herrnson Paul S. , Gimpel James G.
Published: January 2007

Divisive primaries have traditionally been considered indicators of party organizational weakness and they can have a negative effect on a candidate's prospects for winning the general election. Yet, their causes remain virtually unexplored. This study examines a number of factors that are believed to encourage the development of divisive nomination contests. The results demonstrate that demographic and geographic factors, the status of the seat, its partisan bias, state-level political opportunity structures, and party recruit ment efforts influence the divisiveness of primaries for the U.S. House of Representatives. Some of these variables affect the two parties differently. Population diversity is found to be a major cause of divisive primaries in the Democratic party and to have no effect on Republican contests, while political opportunity structures have an effect on Republican primaries but not Democratic contests. The findings demonstrate that at least part of the explanation for the divisiveness of congressional nomination contests lies in the characteristics of congressional districts themselves.
The Effect of State Economic Conditions on Gubernatorial Elections: Does Unified Government Make a Difference?
Authors: Leyden Kevin M. , Borrelli Stephen A.
Published: January 2007

This research addresses two questions of current interest in American po litics : Does divided government reduce accountability? Do voters reward or punish incumbent governors and/or their parties on the basis of state economic performance? A multivariate pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis of aggregate election outcomes from 1972-91 in forty-three states reveals that the effect of state unemployment on the incumbent guber natorial party's vote percentage is greatly enhanced when the governor's party controls both chambers of the state legislature. This evidence is con sistent with the claim made by responsible party theorists that voters are more able and/or willing to reward or punish a political party when that party's responsibility for government performance is complete.
Rational Rebels: Overcoming the Free-Rider Problem
Authors: Moore Will H.
Published: January 2007

Participation in organized violent collective action against a government carries significant penalties should one be apprehended. Further, because such actions generally pursue collective goods, the participants will receive that good (if the action is successful) regardless of whether they participate. The free-rider hypothesis suggests that rational people will forego partici pation in large "N" collective action, unless they receive side payments of some kind. Yet, large numbers of people have periodically engaged in the type of behavior the free-rider hypothesis suggests they would not. This essay examines the solutions to this apparent paradox that have been pro posed in the literature and asks whether there has been any progress or cumulation of knowledge. Using Lakatosian criteria to evaluate this research program, the essay contends that there has indeed been progress. Further, I argue that future efforts should be invested in strategic models of collective action and that more empirical work needs to be done to flesh out the utility of recently proposed solutions.
U.S. Economic Aid and Political Repression: An Empirical Evaluation of U.S. Foreign Policy
Authors: Regan Patrick M.
Published: January 2007

The U.S. Congress has mandated that foreign aid be used in a manner that distances the U.S. from regimes which consistently violate the human rights of their populations, and promotes more acceptable human rights records in recipient countries. There has been considerable scholarly attention devoted to the first of these congressional mandates, though as yet little effort has been made to evaluate the effectiveness of U.S. foreign aid programs in actually changing human rights behavior This essay is a first attempt at evaluating the impact of changes in economic assistance on changes in the amount of political abuse perpetrated by those on the receiving end of the assistance programs. Although others have shown that Carter and Reagan distributed their respective aid programs differently, the findings presented below demonstrate that economic aid has no discernable effect on the human rights records of the recipients; this result holds across both the Carter and Reagan administrations.
Mass and Elite Political Outlooks in Post-Soviet Russia: How Congruent?
Authors: Reisinger William M. , Melville Andrei Yu. , Miller Arthur H. , Hesli Vicki L.
Published: January 2007

Political scientists have long sought to understand the representation of mass publics by their political leaders. Empirical research has primarily focused on patterns of representation in industrial democracies with es tablished democratic traditions. Post-communist countries like Russia, by contrast, provide the opportunity to examine patterns of and attitudes toward representation in a society in which the electoral institutions and the attitudes are newly emerging. We employ survey data from coordinated samples of Russian elites and the mass public carried out in 1992 to address the following questions: Who are the elites in today's Russia? Are their views different from those of the public? In particular, where are the critical pressures for change in Russian politics and society coming from and who is resisting change-those at the top or the bottom of the political hierarchy? How do cleavages among different elite groups relate to the atti tudinal cleavages among the general public? To what extent did the first competitive elections in Russia produce attitudinal correspondence be tween Russian citizens and their representatives in the legislature? We ana lyze elite and mass outlooks on key political and economic dimensions, first for the country as a whole, then within different districts. We show that Russian elites differ in social background from the mass public in the same manner as Western elites differ from the public. Russian elites also differ attitudinally from the Russian populace by being, on average, more reformist (politically and economically). The correspondence, or con gruence, between Russian elite and mass views-overall and region by region-is only moderate but of roughly the same magnitude as that found in Western democracies.
An Economic Theory of Antisemitism? Exploring Attitudes in the New German State
Authors: Legge Jerome S.
Published: January 2007

One of the most classical stereotypes of Jews is that they have a dispropor tionate influence in economic matters. As a consequence, they are often affixed with undeserved blame by those experiencing economic difficul ties. Utilizing recent data gathered in Germany, this paper tests an eco nomic explanation of antisemitism. A Linear Structural Relations (LISREL) analysis finds little support for an economic explanation of antisemitism. The especially strong impact of anti-foreign sentiment suggests that con temporary German antisemitism is largely a consequence of hostility to ward foreign cultures and immigrants. In part, the Jews have been replaced by others as direct targets of prejudice.
A Comparison of Three Emerging Theories of the Policy Process
Authors: Schlager Edella , Blomquist William
Published: January 2007

In an earlier review of political theories of the policy process, Sabatier (1991) challenged political scientists and policy scholars to improve theoretical understanding of policy processes. This essay responds by comparing and building upon three emerging theoretical frameworks: Sabatier's advocacy coalitions framework (ACF), institutional rational choice (IRC), and Moe's political theory of bureaucracy, which he calls the politics of structural choice (SC). The frameworks are compared using six criteria: (1) the bound aries of inquiry; (2) the model of the individual; (3) the roles of informa tion and beliefs in decision making and strategy; (4) the nature and role of groups; (5) the concept of levels of action; and (6) the ability to explain action at various stages of the policy process. Comparison reveals that each framework has promising components, but each remains short of provid ing a full explanation of the processes of policy formation and change. Directions for future theory development and empirical examination are discussed.
The President in a More Partisan Legislative Arena
Authors: Fleisher Richard , Bond Jon R.
Published: January 2007

This article updates our previous analysis of presidential success from 1953 to 1984 (Bond and Fleisher 1990) to see how increased partisanship in the House since 1985 has altered presidential-congressional relations. We ana lyze support from the four party factions in Congress (liberal Democrats, conservative Democrats, liberal Republicans, and conservative Republi cans) and the types of coalitions that formed on presidential votes in the House. The results present a mixed picture of how elevated partisanship altered the nature of presidential-congressional relations. We found an in crease in the tendency for partisan coalitions to form under recent minor ity presidents. This tendency, however, did not continue under unified government in the 103rd Congress. The analysis of presidential success rates under different coalitional structures provides more evidence that increased partisanship has altered presidential-congressional relations. Reagan in his second term and Bush lost more often than previous minor ity presidents when partisan coalitions formed. In contrast, Clinton won more party votes than previous majority presidents. Although the litera ture leads us to expect minority presidents to be more successful with ideological and bipartisan coalitions, we find that Reagan and Bush lost more often than previous minority presidents when the House divided on the basis of ideology or when the party bases acted in a bipartisan fashion.
Congress, the Supreme Court, and the Flag
Authors: Clark John A. , McGuire Kevin T.
Published: January 2007

Congress frequently seeks to reverse the policies of the U.S. Supreme Court. Much is known about the circumstances in which lawmakers confront the Court and whether they are likely to succeed. Still, we do not know how individual members of Congress make these decisions. Why do some mem bers defer to judicial policymaking, while others openly oppose it? The case of the Flag Protection Amendment of 1990, considered in response to the Court's decisions on the issue of flag burning, provides an illustrative setting in which to examine this question. Despite evidence that congres sional reaction to judicial policy is distinctive, our model of the vote sug gests that the nature of institutional conflict does not shape the decision. Rather, members largely reflect ideological and constituent preferences when deciding whether to reverse the Court.
Life in a Niche: Mortality Anxiety Among Organized Interests in the American States
Authors: Gray Virginia , Lowery David
Published: January 2007

We extend recent research using a population ecology framework to understand the structure of interest communities by examining how niche resources and population density influence the survival prospects of inter ests organization. We indirectly assess how resources and density bear on survival by examining mortality anxiety-assessments of the likelihood that interest organization will soon face an existence-threatening crisis. Several hypotheses on mortality anxiety are extracted from the population ecology research program and tested with survey data on interest communities in six states.
Budget Requests and Agency Head Selection Methods
Authors: Clarke Wes
Published: January 2007

In this article I use pooled time series data from more than 500 agencies in thirteen states to assess the effects of agency head selection methods on levels of gubernatorial support for agency budget requests and expansion of agency budgets. I find that elected agency heads from the governor's political party receive greater support for both short-term budget success (the current request) and long-term success (increases to the previous year's budget). Elected officials from the opposition party to the governor do not receive the additional gubernatorial support for budget requests or growth. Consistent with the findings of Sharkansky, Lauth, and Thompson, state legislatures continue to take their budget cues from the governors. In more than 60 percent of the cases in the data, the final appropriation is closer to the governor's recommendation than to the agency request.
Context and Contradiction: Toward a Political Theory of Conceptual Change
Authors: Martin Robert W.T.
Published: January 2007

This article addresses several recurring questions regarding the study of the history of political thought. It does so through theoretical explora tion and practical application. First, conceptual history, a recent sympa thetic alternative to the "Cambridge School" of Quentin Skinner, J. G. A. Pocock, and others, is drawn on in order to outline a general theory of the actual conditions and processes through which politically significant conceptual transformation takes place. Second, by examining concrete examples-especially that of James Rivington, an early American news paper publisher and Tory leader-the study focuses on the role of contra dictions and contextual shifts to suggest how we might begin to better understand the interrelationships between an author, a wide variety of contexts, and the causal force of these contexts.
Civil Rights Roll-Call Voting in the House of Representatives, 1957-1991: A Systematic Analysis
Authors: Sanders Francine
Published: January 2007

The record of civil rights roll-call votes in the House of Representatives has yet to be systematically explained or predicted. In particular, it is not clear why House members sometimes appear to have a great deal of inde pendence from constituency, but at other times are limited by negative public assessments. I contend that the key is the variation in content of different types of civil rights bills, and construct a categorical scale which rates bills voted on in the House from 1957-1991 according to potential costs (whether actual or perceived) to white Americans. The expectation that an increase in category will result in decreased likelihood of passage, and significantly smaller supporting coalitions, is supported. While par tisanship also emerges as a significant determinant of roll calls, a more complete explanation is arrived at when it is considered in conjunction with the legislative classification variable.
"¡Quedate o Vente!": Uncovering the Determinants of Hispanic Public Opinion Toward Immigration
Authors: Hood M.V. , Morris Irwin L. , Shirkey Kurt A.
Published: January 2007

Why do some Hispanic-Americans support ( Vente) and others oppose ( Quedate) the liberalization of immigration policies?1 In this study we attempt to ascertain which combination of demographic, attitudinal, and contextual factors determines Hispanic public opinion toward legal im migration. In a departure from previous research, we conduct an advanced multivariate analysis and utilize an existing national-level sample of His panics. While we find only limited evidence that Hispanic public opinion on immigration varies among nationalistic subgroups (e.g., Cuban-Ameri cans, Mexican-Americans, etc.), we do find that level of acculturation and perceived economic threat influence Hispanic opinion on legal im migration. We also find that Hispanics residing in areas with large illegal migrant populations, and those with more negative attitudes toward the impact of Hispanics on American society, tend to favor more restrictive immigration policies. Finally, we examine the implications of these find ings for future studies of public opinion toward immigration and for the development of immigration policy