bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Impacts of land use and environmental change on the Eastern European land carbon sink
Authors: Winkler Karina , Yang Hui , Ganzenmüller Raphael , Fuchs Richard , Ceccherini Guido , Duveiller Grégory , Grassi Giacomo , Pongratz Julia , Bastos Ana , Shvidenko Anatoly , Araza Arnan , Herold Martin , Ciais Philippe
Published: February 2023

Land-based mitigation is essential in reducing carbon emissions. Yet, the attribution of land carbon fluxes to their sinks and sources remains highly uncertain, in particular for the forest-rich but data-poor region of Eastern Europe. Here we integrate various data sources (from top-down and bottom-up modelling, earth observation, inventories) to show that Eastern Europe accounted for an annual aboveground biomass (AGB) carbon sink of ~0.49 GtC in 2010‑2019, or about 75% of the entire European carbon uptake. However, we find that the land-based carbon sink is declining. This declining trend is mainly driven by changes in land use and land management, but also by increasing natural disturbances due to ongoing climate change. Despite the high overall importance of environmental factors such as soil moisture, nitrogen and CO2 for enhancing the land-based carbon sink, we find indicators of a saturation effect of the regrowth in abandoned former agricultural areas, combined with an increase in wood harvest, particularly in European Russia. Our results contribute to a better understanding of the regional carbon budget of Eastern Europe and its trend. This study sheds light on land use and management as drivers of the land-based carbon sink and their role for climate mitigation.
Glacier change monitoring using optical satellite imagery: the case of Forni Glacier
Authors: Ranaldi Lorenza , Belloni Valeria , Fugazza Davide , Crespi Mattia
Published: February 2023

Glaciers are one of the most important indicators of climate change. Monitoring their evolution is, therefore, crucial for safeguarding the Earth’s ecosystem. In this study, exploiting photogrammetric optical satellite processing techniques, we used image pairs from Ikonos-2 and Plèiades-HR satellites to generate Digital Surface Models (DSMs) of Forni Glacier (Ortles–Cevedale group, Italy) and compute its morphological variations between 2009 and 2016. In addition, we used DSMs generated from Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) acquisitions collected during summer campaigns from 2014 to 2021 for comparison with very high-resolution DSMs on the terminal portion of the glacier including its tongue, which is also the area more affected by morphological changes. To evaluate the glacier height loss, DSMs co-registration was applied to remove DSM biases due to inconsistencies in the georeferencing of the different satellite image pairs. For this purpose, we used the 2016 UAV DSM as a reference, and we co-registered all the optical DSMs to the 2016 UAV DSM using the Nuth and Kaab algorithm. The DSM height differences after co-registration highlighted a final accuracy of one meter. Since optical satellite data have the advantage of providing information on very large areas, we analysed glacier change not only on small areas of Forni Glacier tongue but also on larger regions including parts of the entire glacial apparatus to depict the evolution of the glacier at different altitudes. Results from optical DSMs were consistent with the average annual variation of the glacier suggested by UAV DSMs analysis, confirming an average 5.00 m/y loss on the Forni tongue during 2014-2016.  Furthermore, based on both UAV and optical data, melting trends have highlighted how climate change is causing an acceleration in the melting process, with values averaging 3.3 m/y in the period 2009-2013, 3.8 m/y in 2009-2016 and 4.7 m/y in 2009-2021. With reference to the optical data only, we observed that the intensity of melting varied at different altitudes, with 10 m of maximum variation above 3000 m, and 30 m between 2600-3000 m during 2009-2016. Our results suggested that despite the limitations related to weather conditions (e.g. cloud coverage) and time revisit, high-resolution optical satellite imagery can certainly be used to estimate relevant morphological variations of glaciers in the order of meter/years, offering the opportunity of monitoring large-scale areas.
 

 
 
Innovative system for monitoring and forecasting hydrological dynamics in semi-arid Ceará, NE-Brazil
Authors: Vormoor Klaus , Rottler Erwin , Schüttig Martin , Bronstert Axel , Estácio Ályson , Rocha Renan , de Carvalho Junior Valdenor Nilo , Guimarães Clecia , Martins Eduardo
Published: February 2023

The state of Ceará is located in the semi-arid northeast of Brazil and is characterized by strong inter- and intra-annual variability in precipitation. Thus, droughts and an uncertain water supply threaten the people in one of the most densely populated dryland regions in the world. To store and supply water during dry periods, tens of thousands of dams of various sizes have been built, especially since the end of the 19th century. Only 155 of these reservoirs are systematically monitored and managed. For the remaining reservoirs, there is no systematic monitoring and coordinated water resource management so far. In addition to a comprehensive monitoring, it requires an adapted hydrological modeling and forecasting tool to best manage water resources in Ceará and to reduce the impact of future droughts.
In this project, an innovative system for monitoring and forecasting hydrological dynamics in Ceará was developed in collaboration with the Federal Agency of Hydrology and Meteorology (FUNCEME). This system is based on an integrated use of climate modeling, process-based hydrological modeling, remote sensing, and existing databases. Specifically, the following three complementary products have been developed:

Satellite-based monitoring of stored water volume in reservoirs: Weekly monitoring of water masks of > 30,000 reservoirs is performed by evaluating and classifying Sentinel-1 scenes. The stored water volume can then be inferred from the area-volume relationship derived using high-resolution TanDEM-X CoSSC DEMs for these reservoirs during explicit drought years (i.e. when reservoirs were empty).
Modeling and seasonal forecasting of hydrological dynamics using WASA-SED: The process-based hydrological model WASA-SED, developed for semi-arid areas, was adapted and calibrated for the state area of Ceará. Information from satellite-based reservoir monitoring is dynamically assimilated in the simulations. Based on an ensemble of ECHAM4.6 climate simulations (updated monthly), the adapted hydrological model is used to generate seasonal forecasts with six months lead time on streamflow and reservoir filling conditions.
Web-based visualization of monitoring and forecast results: The results of satellite-based monitoring and dynamic hydrological modeling and forecasting are centrally managed in a database and can be retrieved from there by a web application. The corresponding information is visualized online as maps and graphics and made available to different user groups and decision makers.
Assessing perceived probability and damage of flood risk across the globe
Authors: Kim Moongyeom , Botzen Wouter , Haer Toon , de Bruijn Jens , Aerts Jeroen
Published: February 2023

In this study we aim to improve our understanding of household adaptation and migration responses to coastal hazards induced by sea level rise, such as coastal flooding. We apply a global ABM (agent-based model; DYNAMO-M), which simulates all ~200 million individual people and households in coastal flood zones around the world. The model simulates in yearly timesteps flood events and changing flood risk and whether residents migrate or adapt (e.g. flood proof their house) to lower their risk. Agents’ migration and adaptation decisions are based on the Subjective Expected Utility Theory (SEUT). Here, agents maximize their utility based on subjective risk assessments, such as their subjective perception of flood risk. However, the current risk perception parameter in the SEUT equation in DYNAMO-M is based on a single empirical study in France. Additional data is needed to address the heterogeneity of risk perceptions across different global coastal households. In order to assess the differences in risk perceptions in different areas around the world, we combine different data sets: (1) we conducted unique surveys on perceptions of flood risk and their determinants as well as people’s intention to adapt or migrate under future SLR scenarios in 6 countries with varying socio-economic backgrounds (Argentina, France, Mozambique, the Netherlands, the US, and Vietnam). Using these survey data, we identify the generic decision rule for the determinants of risk perception parameters such as the perceived probability and damage of flooding through regression analysis. (2) Next, we use additional global datasets on individual characteristics such as the World Value Survey (demographic and residential information data) and Cloud2Street (flood experience data) and use these data as explanatory variables for transferring risk perception parameters to countries where no primary survey data is available. This analysis may aid the understanding of global patterns in risk perceptions of people/agents. We believe our study serves as a basis for research on individual behavior under risk, the role of risk perception, and the use of the data in global ABMs.
Magnitude Estimation and Ground Motion Prediction to Harness Fiber Optic Distributed Acoustic Sensing for Earthquake Early Warning
Authors: Lior Itzhak , Rivet Diane , Ampuero Jean-Paul , Sladen Anthony , Barrientos Sergio , Sánchez-Olavarría Rodrigo , Villarroel Opazo German Alberto , Bustamante Prado Jose Antonio
Published: February 2023

Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) systems provide seconds to tens of seconds of warning time before potentially-damaging ground motions are felt. For optimal warning times, seismic sensors should be installed as close as possible to expected earthquake sources. However, while the most hazardous earthquakes on Earth occur underwater, most seismological stations are located on-land; precious seconds may go by before these earthquakes are detected. In this work, we harness available optical fiber infrastructure for EEW using the novel approach of Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS). DAS strain measurements of earthquakes from different regions are converted to ground motions using a real-time slant-stack approach, magnitudes are estimated using a theoretical earthquake source model, and ground shaking intensities are predicted via ground motion prediction equations. The results demonstrate the potential of DAS-based EEW and the significant time-gains that can be achieved compared to the use of standard sensors, in particular for offshore earthquakes.
What can global hydrological models tell us about sources and flows of riverine plastics?
Authors: Bartosova Alena , Jeppsson Stahl Fanny , Brendel Conrad , Temnerud Johan , Havelka Jan , Arheimer Berit
Published: February 2023

Plastic pollution is one of the major global water quality issues. Yet the lack of consistent data and standardized monitoring and assessment methods leads to a wide range of uncertainties in estimating the plastic load that is being delivered to marine environments. At the same time, continental and global dynamic hydrological models are becoming more available for large-scale estimation of time-dynamic water fluxes into sea basins. One such tool is a dynamic process-based rainfall-runoff and water quality model Hydrological Predictions for Environment (HYPE) and its global application, World-Wide HYPE (WWH, Arheimer et al., 2020).Here, we present the first results from simulating global riverine plastic pollution using WWH. The model development is based on the results of the global literature review of sources of microplastics through the lens of a hydrological modeler. Traditional model calibration techniques may not be appropriate in this case due to insufficient number of data points, large variability in plastic characteristics and sampling techniques applied in the collected monitoring studies, as well as large uncertainty and a lack of current knowledge of transport and transformation processes in water bodies. Thus, an ensemble of WWH model setups was developed where the model structure and hydrology is the same and the model parameters that affect generation, transformation, and transport of plastic from various land uses, sanitation categories, and in rivers are varied to explore the defined parameter space. Collected data together with other global estimates were then used to evaluate the ensemble with a weight of evidence approach, highlighting sources and processes of major significance and focusing the ensemble towards a realistic set. Further model error analyses indicate which sources and processes play an important role in transport of riverine plastics as well as how different monitoring approaches can affect the results.References:Arheimer, B., Pimentel, R., Isberg, K., Crochemore, L., Andersson, J. C. M., Hasan, A., and Pineda, L., 2020. Global catchment modelling using World-Wide HYPE (WWH), open data and stepwise parameter estimation, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci. 24, 535–559, https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-24-535-202
Climate sensitivity of hydrological models. Impact of evapotranspiration calculation on the simulation of recent hydrological trends in France.
Authors: Le Lay Matthieu , Gailhard Joël
Published: February 2023

Hydrological models are now widely used to simulate the impacts of global warming on water resources. They are therefore credited with the ability to represent the evolution of the hydrological cycle under the effect of the increase in temperature, and in particular that of the evapotranspiration term. However, the analysis of recent hydrological trends in a large number of French basins already highlights the effect of the increase in temperature and evapotranspiration on river runoff. We are therefore seeking to evaluate and understand the climatic sensitivity of the MORDOR-SD hydrological model developed and used at EDF (Garavaglia et al. 2017). The capacity of the model to reproduce the hydrological trends observed over a large catchment dataset is analysed for different calculations and formulations of potential evapotranspiration. The results obtained suggest that, beyond the choice of formulation (very simplified as a function of temperature or complete as a function of all the climatic variables), it is the consideration of trends in solar radiation and surface albedo that makes it possible to explain the evolution of evapotranspiration and flows in France. The evolution of vegetation cover also appears to be a sensitive factor, rarely taken into account and promising for future studies.
The MOSAiC webODV: Interactive online data exploration, visualization and analysis
Authors: Mieruch Sebastian , Linck Rosenhaim Ingrid , Schlitzer Reiner
Published: February 2023

In the frame of the M-VRE (The MOSAiC virtual research environment, https://mosaic-vre.org) project we have set up a webODV application, to serve data from the arctic MOSAiC (https://mosaic-expedition.org) expedition.webODV is deployed at AWI's computing center under https://mvre.webodv.cloud.awi.de. MOSAiC data have been retrieved from the long-term archive Pangaea (https://pangaea.de). To get the most out of the data with webODV, we have harmonized, aggregated and compiled the datasets into different separated and interdisciplinary data collections.webODV is operated interactively in the browser via the mouse and keyboard (no programming), it's fast, efficient and easy to use for exploring, visualizing, analyzing, downloading data, creating map projections, scatter plots, section plots, surface plots and station plots and many more.webODV supports the FAIR data principles and analyses and visualizations are fully reproducible using our so-called "xview" files that can be shared among colleagues or attached to publications. We provide real-time sharing, full author traceability and downloadable lists of all the DOI's used in the analysis or the respective .bib or .ris files including all citations. Extensive documentation is available at https://mosaic-vre.org/docs as well as video tutorials at https://mosaic-vre.org/videos/webodv.
DiffSD: Diffusion models for seismic denoising
Authors: Trappolini Daniele , Laurenti Laura , Tinti Elisa , Galasso Fabio , Marone Chris , Michelini Alberto
Published: February 2023

Seismic waves contain information about the earthquake (EQ) source and many forms of noise deriving from the seismometer, anthropogenic effects, background noise associated with ocean waves, and microseismic noise. Separating the noise from the EQ signal is a critical first step in EQ physics and seismic waveform analysis. However, this is difficult because optimal parameters for filtering noise typically vary with time and may strongly alter the shape of the waveform. A few recent works have employed Deep Learning (DL) model for seismic denoising, among which we have taken as a benchmark Deep Denoiser and SEDENOSS. These models turn the noisy trace into a  2D signal (spectrograms) within the model to denoise the traces, making the process pretty heavy. We propose a novel DL-powered seismic denoising algorithm based on Diffusion Models (DMs), keeping the signal in 1D. DMs are the latest trend in Machine Learning (ML), having revolutionized the application fields of audio and image processing for denoising (DiffWave), synthesis (Stable Diffusion), and sequence modeling (STARS). The training of DMs proceeds by polluting a signal with noise until the signal has completely vanished into noise, then reversing the process by iterative denoising, conditioned on the latent signal representation. This makes DMs the ideal tool for seismic traces cleaning, as the model naturally learns from seismic sequences by denoising, which aligns the ML training procedure and the final task objective. In a preliminary evaluation, we used the Stanford Earthquake Dataset (STEAD); our proposed Diffusion-based Seismic Denoiser (DiffSD) outperforms the state-of-the-art DL methods on the Signal Noise Ratio (SNR),  Scale-Invariant Source to Distortion Ratio (SI-SDR), and Source to Distortion Ratio (SDR) metrics. DiffSD also yields qualitatively pleasing EQ traces out of visual inspection in time and frequency. Finally, DiffSD proceeds from regenerating clean EQ signals from noise, which opens the way to data-driven EQ sequence generations, potentially instrumental to further study and dataset augmentations.
Numerical modeling of fault and rupture co-evolution using a damage-breakage rheology with granular rate-and-state friction
Authors: Pranger Casper , May Dave , Raess Ludovic , Ben-Zion Yehuda , Gabriel Alice-Agnes
Published: February 2023

A recently developed continuum formulation of rate and state friction (Pranger et al., 2022) treats fault friction as an internal flow process in a granular medium, instead of its conventional treatment as a sliding process on a surface between juxtaposed rocks. The spurious mesh dependency that is typically associated with strain softening rheologies is avoided by including a diffusion process with an associated diffusion length scale.We show that this granular rate and state friction law can be understood as a flow involving the breakage component of the damage-breakage rheology (DBR) of Lyakhovsky and Ben Zion (2014a,b). Modeling the episodic transitions from local damage accumulation in the solid to the fluid-like granular flow phase during larger collective failure events, the DBR is both significantly broader in scope and better grounded in the thermodynamic theory of irreversible processes than the phenomenological rate and state friction law.A promising next step is to consider the damage and breakage components simultaneously in coupled continuum models of fault and rupture co-evolution. Doing so at sufficient resolution requires highly performant algorithms and a specialized numerical treatment of the coupled non-linear partial differential equations, including a robust time integration scheme with adaptive step size control and a flexible implicit-explicit split. We aim to discuss our numerical methods and computing paradigms supported by proof-of-concept modeling results of interacting damage and breakage pulses in 2D.References:Pranger et al. (2022), Rate and state friction as a spatially regularized transient viscous flow law. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 127, e2021JB023511.Lyakhovsky and Ben-Zion (2014a), Damage–breakage rheology model and solid-granular transition near brittle instability. Journal of the Mechanics and Physics of Solids, 64, 184-197.Lyakhovsky and Ben-Zion (2014b), A Continuum Damage–Breakage Faulting Model and Solid-Granular Transitions. Pure and Applied Geophysics, 171, 3099–3123
Development of a coastal inundation compound modelling framework
Authors: dos Reis Lopes Italo , Mentaschi Lorenzo , Pinardi Nadia , Vousdoukas Michalis , Perini Luisa , Piscitelli Arcangelo
Published: February 2023

Environmental hazards represent a major socio-economic challenge where floods events are the most impactful in terms of global population affected (UNDRR, 2020). Coastal areas are exposed to multiple met-ocean extreme events which can occur separately or combined. Storm surges associated with wind waves, heavy rainfall and tides can lead to catastrophic inundation events associated with breakdown of structures, food and water insecurities and loss of lives. Additionally, climate changes are associated with two coastal risk factors: a) an increase of extreme events (Schiermeier, 2011; Vitousek et al., 2017) and b) an increase of sea level rise (IPCC, 2018).Different approaches exist to flood modelling (Vousdoukas et al.,2016; Dottori, Martina and Figueiredo, 2018), varying by complexity and accuracy. Simple hydrological models, which operate by integrating the 2D shallow water equation in a flood-plain, offer a good trade-off between computational demand and good skills in simulating real coastal flood events (Smith, Bates and Hayes, 2012). Since accurate inundation modelling is of great importance for risk prevention and management of coastal areas, a system that can be reallocated and calibrated for different regions is a forefront of the research topic.As a first case study, the flood event of February 2015 in Emilia-Romagna Region (Italy) was selected. The event was characterized by a combination of heavy rain, waves and tides which leads to one of the highest water levels ever recorded in the area (Perini et al., 2015). The model was run with different Digital Elevation Models and forced with water levels provided by Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (ISPRA) station. The results were compared with observational data of inundation maps.  A broad agreement was found between inundation maps produced by the model and observational data, though with significant local discrepancies. The main differences between model and observations can be ascribed mainly to DEM’s local uncertainty. Work is in progress to include the different types of forcings and to elaborate machine-learning based protocols of calibration to locally improve the model skill, by a) optimizing the mean elevation of the DEM using the modelled and observed flooded areas and b) best-fitting Manning coefficients over the DEM using land use data.
How does edaphic context affect soil organic matter persistence?
Authors: Vancampenhout Karen , Schellekens Judith , Nijdam Sascha , Kim Keunbae , Briones Maria I.J. , Muys Bart , Desie Ellen , Jansen Boris
Published: February 2023

European and Flemish climate-change policies aim to enhance carbon (C) storage in soils of conservation areas, including natural areas such as forests, grasslands and wetlands. Soil capability and condition however may impact C persistence and material cycles in soils, and therefore the sustainability of this policy effort, by making soil C stocks more vulnerable to climatic anomalies, shocks and disturbances. Edaphic limitations in terms of nutrients, acidity, temperature or moisture availability have been shown to affect soil C persistence, but processes behind this effect remain elusive and poorly quantified.In this contribution, we therefore present several case studies in western European forests and wetlands, where we assess how the molecular composition of several soil organic matter fractions varies along gradients of soil cover, edaphic conditions and perturbation intensity. Furthermore, by comparing different fractions and markers, we evaluate the suitability of different methods to evaluate changes in soil carbon dynamics, as a tool to predict the potential impact of anthropogenic stresses and management interventions on soil carbon persistence.
An unconstrained formulation for thermodynamic complex solution phase minimization
Authors: Riel Nicolas , Kaus Boris , Green Eleanor
Published: February 2023

While the last decade has seen significant progress in thermo-mechanical modelling of complex multiphase systems, the coupling with petrological thermodynamic modelling approaches, when addressed at all, remains a difficult task. First, most phase equilibria modeling tools have been developed with the primary focus to produce phase diagrams (e.g., Perple_X, Theriak_Domino, geoPS, MELTS) and do not offer useful interfaces for (parallel) geodynamic codes. Second, phase equilibrium modelling is generally achieved by solving a Gibbs energy minimization problem. This problem is computationally challenging as it involves solving a nested optimization problem subject to both equality and inequality constraints. As a result, the single point calculation of stable phase equilibrium is slow, and to our knowledge, >150 milliseconds for a compositional system involving a large number of chemical components. This limitation effectively precludes direct coupling of phase equilibria calculation with geodynamic models, which requires performing 1000s to 100'000s of such calculations every timestep.We have recently developed a new open-source code, MAGEMin, that improves on part of this. In MAGEMin 75 to 90% of the computation time is dedicated to local minimization of solution models. Therefore, it becomes critically important to improve the minimization time of individual solution phase models to further speed-up phase-equilibria computational time.Here, we present a reformulation of the solution phase model from Holland et al., (2018) that eliminates both equality and inequality constraints. Eliminating these constraints allows the utilization of faster unconstrained optimization methods, thus yielding much higher performance and stability. We compare the accuracy and performance of several unconstrained gradient-based optimization methods namely the conjugated gradient (CG), the Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) methods and a hybrid combination (CG-BFGS).
Investigation of naturally occurring radionuclides in a riverbank filtered drinking water supply system
Authors: Mezei Máté Márk , Baják Petra , Csiszár Endre , Hegedűs-Csondor Katalin , Izsák Bálint , Vargha Márta , Horváth Ákos , Erőss Anita
Published: February 2023

Riverbank filtered drinking water supply systems are strongly dependent on the river stage. Climate change-induced extremely low or high river stage may cause water quantity and quality problems. In this study, a riverbank-filtered drinking water supply system along the Danube River was investigated from a radioactivity point of view: we aimed to understand the origin of elevated (>100 mBq L–1) gross alpha activity measured in some wells and the variation in water quality with river level fluctuation.
10 producing, 2 monitoring wells, and the Danube were sampled at lower and higher river stages. The water samples were analyzed for major ions and trace components. Total U (234U+235U+238U) and 226Ra activity concentration were determined by alpha spectrometry using Nucfilm discs, and 222Rn activity was measured by liquid scintillation counting.
Total uranium activity was measured in the highest concentration (up to 334 mBq L–1). Radium and radon activities were barely above the detection limit. Based on our results the previously measured elevated gross alpha activity is most likely caused by dissolved uranium in the groundwater. Uranium activity concentrations show increasing values from N to S which corresponds well to the occurrence of organic matter-rich, clayey floodplain deposits underlying the aquifer.
Besides spatial variation, a temporal change can also be observed: lower uranium activity was measured at a lower river stage (32–248 mBq L–1) compared to a higher river stage (26–334 mBq L–1). This phenomenon could be explained by the dynamic relationship between the groundwater and the river. At the low river stage, oxygen-rich (ground)water flows from the river toward the inland and may cause the remobilization of uranium from the clayey basement layers. This process will be more and more dominant by extremely low river stages during long-lasting drought periods in the future causing water quality problems.
The research was funded by the National Multidisciplinary Laboratory for Climate Change, RRF-2.3.1-21-2022-00014 project.
Nitrogen losses from drained temperate agricultural peatland after mineral soil coverage
Authors: Wang Yuqiao , Paul Sonja , Alewell Christine , Leifeld Jens
Published: February 2023

Drainage for agriculture induces peatland decomposition, subsidence, and nitrogen (N) losess, thereby contributing to climate change. In order to maintain the productivity of agricultural managed peatland, and to counteract soil subsidence, mineral soil coverage is becoming an increasingly used practice in Switzerland and other European countries. Mineral soil coverage may change the N balance from the corronsponding organic soil. To explore the effect of this practice on the N flow within the plant – soil system and the N loss, we carried out a field experiment on a peatland in the Swiss Rhine Valley that was managed as an intensive meadow. The peatland was divided into two parts, either without (Ref) or with mineral soil coverage, thickness ~ 40 cm (Cov). In this experiment, 15NH415NO3 were applied on field plots to follow the recovery of 15N in grass, root, and soil over 11 months. The 15N that was not recovered was designated as lost via leaching or gaseous emissions. Soil N mineralization was measured in a laboratory incubation. And the gaseous N loss as N2O was determined by automatic time integrating chamber systems (ATIC) over two years. The experimental results showed that the total 15N loss from Cov was lower (p < 0.05) than from Ref, even though plant 15N uptake did not vary between the two sites. The lower net N loss from the Cov site was accompanied by higher soil 15N retention in the soil. The laboratory incubation revealed a ~2 times higher specific N release per unit soil N at Cov than at Ref, suggesting a faster SOM turnover rate at Cov. Regarding the N loss as N2O, emissions from Ref were at the upper end of previously measured fluxes in drained peatland. In contrast, N2O emissions from Cov were reduced by a factor of nine over two years. Overall, the mineral soil cover increased the retention of fertilizer-N in the soil, thus reducing the system N losses, especially N loss as N2O emissions. Our results indicate agricultural production on drained peatland is less harmful to the environment with mineral soil coverage than using drained peatland directly. 
Modeling flow and sediment dynamics in an estuarine mangrove forest and adjacent areas: the impact of mangrove forest dynamics on landscape evolution
Authors: Yoshikai Masaya , Nakamura Takashi , Blanco Ariel , Hernandez Bryan , Herrera Eugene , Ferrera Charissa , Almarza Francoise , Dimalanta William , Basina Ryan , Albano Gia , Rollon Rene , Suwa Rempei , Ray Raghab , Primavera-Tirol Yasmin , San Diego-McGlone Maria Lourdes , Nadaoka Kazuo
Published: February 2023

Mangroves, a coastal wetland ecosystem with complex above-ground root systems, are known to modulate flow and sediment transport and promote sedimentation – processes that could drive the long-term geomorphic evolution of mangrove forests. However, insights on how and to what extent mangrove forests impact the sedimentary processes and evolution of landscapes and their adjacent areas are limited. This study aims to address these challenges by using a hydrodynamic-sediment transport model and contribute to understanding the effective restoration and management of mangrove forests under the impact of climate change effects such as sea-level rise. A new model was developed to represent the impacts of species-specific three-dimensional root structures (e.g., “prop roots” of Rhizophora species and “pencil roots” of Avicennia and Sonneratia species) on flow and sediment transport and implemented in a hydrodynamic-sediment transport model. This model was applied to a restored estuarine mangrove forest in the Philippines influenced by tidal and fluvial processes. The results show the significant impacts of mangroves on the sedimentation of fluvially-transported sediments in the mangrove forest and nearby areas, which contributed to the areal expansion of the mangrove forest. In addition, due to the increased hydraulic resistance of the mangrove forest following restoration, significant amounts of river flow and sediment discharge are diverted to the other tributary, decreasing the sediment supply downstream of the mangrove forest, a phenomenon that could possibly explain the trend in sediment loss in the area. These results suggest the significance of mangrove forests in driving landscape evolution, not only within the mangrove forest itself but also in adjacent areas, highlighting the importance of considering these areas as a connected system for the management and restoration of mangrove forests.
Enhanced habitat loss of the Himalayan endemic flora driven by warming-forced upslope tree expansion
Authors: Wang Xiaoyi , Wang Tao , Xu Jinfeng , Shen Zehao , Yang Yongping , Chen Anping , Wang Shaopeng , Liang Eryuan , Piao Shilong
Published: February 2023

High-elevation trees cannot always reach the thermal treeline, the potential upper range limit set by growing-season temperature. But delineation of the realized upper range limit of trees and quantification of the drivers, which lead to trees being absent from the treeline, is lacking. Here, we used 30 m resolution satellite tree-cover data, validated by more than 0.7 million visual interpretations from Google Earth images, to map the realized range limit of trees along the Himalaya which harbours one of the world’s richest alpine endemic flora. The realized range limit of trees is ~800 m higher in the eastern Himalaya than in the western and central Himalaya. Trees had reached their thermal treeline positions in more than 80% of the cases over eastern Himalaya but are absent from the treeline position in western and central Himalaya, due to anthropogenic disturbance and/or pre-monsoon drought. By combining projections of the deviation of trees from the treeline position due to regional environmental stresses with warming-induced treeline shift, we predict that trees will migrate upslope by ~140 m by the end of the twenty-first century in the eastern Himalaya. This shift will cause the endemic flora to lose at least ~20% of its current habitats, highlighting the necessity to reassess the effectiveness of current conservation networks and policies over the Himalaya.
Earthquake cluster analysis reveals the complex response of microseismicity to the ongoing 2021-2023 inflation at Askja caldera, Iceland
Authors: Winder Tom , Siggers Isabel , Rawlinson Nicholas , White Robert , Brandsdóttir Bryndís
Published: February 2023

Askja is an active volcano in Central Iceland that has experienced ~ 45 cm of uplift since August 2021, marking an abrupt end to decades of gradual deflation. We have operated a dense local seismic network around Askja since 2007, providing an exceptionally long time series of seismic data within which to search for patterns that relate to this sudden change in behaviour. Here we focus on spatiotemporal changes in microseismicity associated with the switch to inflation. Understanding what seismicity can tell us about the ongoing unrest at the volcano is crucial, because it is one of the few monitoring tools that is available year-round. Furthermore, joint interpretation of seismic and geodetic data is key to overcoming ambiguities in the interpretation of surface deformation measurements alone.Our catalogue of microseismicity in Askja spanning July 2007 to August 2022 contains more than 25,000 events detected and located with QuakeMigrate1. Increases in seismicity rate are clearly observed in August 2021, corresponding to the start of inflation as measured by a GPS station close to the centre of uplift. However, a strong spatial variation across the caldera is observed in the magnitude and duration of the seismicity rate increase. To investigate this further, we cross-correlate earthquake waveforms and calculate relative relocations. Combined with cluster analysis, this divides the seismicity into sharply resolved structures, with markedly different temporal evolution. We identify new clusters of events not seen in the 14 years preceding the current inflation, as well as previously persistent clusters which have now shut off, and areas of microseismicity which are seemingly unaffected by the inflation. Combined with analysis of tightly-constrained earthquake focal mechanisms covering the same time period, these results provide new insight into both the mechanism linking the observed deformation and seismicity rate changes, and the role of caldera fault slip in facilitating the ongoing inflation at Askja. 1: Winder, T., Bacon, C., Smith, J., Hudson, T., Greenfield, T. and White, R., 2020. QuakeMigrate: a Modular, Open-Source Python Package for Automatic Earthquake Detection and Location. https://doi.org/10.1002/essoar.10505850.
How does the assessment of extreme precipitation profit from convection permitting climate ensembles?
Authors: Hundhausen Marie , Feldmann Hendrik , Kohlhepp Regina , Pinto Joaquim G.
Published: February 2023

In response to global warming, an intensification of extreme precipitation has been observed, and models project this trend to continue. Since the return values of extreme precipitation events are regularly used in practice in the form of heavy rainfall hazard products, a reliable update of these products is required. Moreover, for resilient planning a projection of future conditions is urged by practice stakeholders.A promising tool for projection are convection permitting climate simulations, which have been shown to better represent extreme precipitation events compared to coarser simulations and thus provide higher confidence in future extreme estimates. However, due to the large computation time of convection permitting simulations, evaluations are mostly based on single time slice experiments. Therefore, we explore the potential of an unique transient convection permitting (2.8 km) ensemble with COSMO-CLM regional simulations (1971-2100) over Germany, with four ensemble members driven by MPI-ESM-LR, EC-EARTH, CNRM-CM5, and HadGEM2-ES with the emission scenario RCP8.5. Extreme precipitation is derived over 30-year running time slices and the scales investigated span from hourly to 3-day event duration and return periods from 1 year to 100 years, representing the wide range of events considered for application.Within the historical period (1971-2005) we found adequate agreement between the simulations and the observation data set KOSTRA with increasing bias with longer event duration. Furthermore, the climate change signal, derived as a relative value with regard to the historical period of the simulation, was found to increase with return period and for shorter durations. Strongest relative changes lie within the range of Clausius-Clapeyron-scaling with global warming. Analysis of the uncertainty revealed a substantial residual standard deviation of the linear approximation of the change signal over global warming, highlighting the benefit of a transient ensemble that enables a more robust estimation of the change signal of extreme events. Moreover, the results indicate an increased variance of future extreme precipitation.
Groundwater response to historic climate variability and change
Authors: Fan Xinyang , Peterson Tim , Henley Benjamin , Arora Meenakshi
Published: February 2023

Climate change is projected to impact water resources in many countries around the world, but the projections are highly uncertain due to numerous assumptions of the hydrological stationarity, model structures, and complex hydrodynamics in the surface and subsurface. Quantifying the historic impact of climate variability and change on water resources allows for an improved understanding of the hydrological and climate processes which is necessary for accurate projections. Due to the long memory in groundwater systems of the impacts of climate variability and change, there is an opportunity to investigate the historic impact of long-term changes on water resources. Analysing groundwater hydrographs over multiple decades potentially allows for the quantification of the response of groundwater head to climatic changes. However, there are challenges in using this long-term information to quantify historic climate impacts. One of the challenges is to separate the impact of climatic change on groundwater from other influential drivers, such as pumping for agricultural irrigation, land use and land cover changes, and natural climate variability. In addition, the often short and interrupted nature of groundwater records limits the investigation of long-term impacts. In this study, we establish and test methods to quantify the response of groundwater to climate variability and change at natural sites (not affected by anthropogenic activities) identified across Australia, overcoming the aforementioned challenges. Results show that location, climate, and aquifer hydraulic property play a role in controlling the response of groundwater head and recharge to climate variations, compared with land use changes. This implies that future climate change may significantly impact groundwater availability by altering the response of groundwater. Quantifying the response of groundwater to climatic changes is needed to understand the future of groundwater systems globally. With this improved understanding we can work towards effective adaptive water management strategies for both human and natural systems.
Impact of beaver (Castor fiber) activity on chemical composition of water and sediment in Polish and Slovakian Carpathian rivers – preliminary studies
Authors: Wąs Joanna , Kijowska-Strugała Małgorzata
Published: February 2023

European beaver (Castor fiber) significantly affects hydrogeomorphological processes, mostly due to its ability to build and maintain dams on rivers. Changes in flow regime, water storage and rates of sediment deposition lead to alterations in chemical composition of water and accumulated material. Recent findings suggest that beaver dams can be considered as a factor in river self-cleaning process in European lowlands (Puttock et al., 2017).In order to examine beaver impact on mountainous rivers along a N-S transect through the Western Carpathians, selected sections of river valleys from the foothills through the Beskids in Poland to the southern slope of the Western Carpathians in Slovakia were surveyed. Study was conducted on 21 sites on 19 rivers. Each site consisted of three sampling points: above and below the beaver cascade or pond (if there was only one) and by the largest dam in the system. Water samples were taken in the summer and autumn of 2022, at normal water levels, and sediment samples were taken during field surveys in the autumn of 2022. The heavy metal content in sediments and the ionic composition in water  were determined using an ICP MS TOF spectrometer (Optimass 9500 GBC) and  Dionex ICS3000 ion chromatograph.Beaver populations considerably increased in Western Carpathians in recent years and their contemporary occurrence is relatively new in the area where they were extirpated probably ca. 400 years ago (Żurowski, 1986). Reintroduction program was conducted in some Carpathian catchments in Poland in the 2nd part of the XX century (Kasperczyk, 1987). Release sites acted as dispersion centers not only for Polish but also Slovak populations in the analyzed mountain range. High migration rates and inhabitation of various habitats (from semi-natural to highly anthropogenically modified) catchments makes the research on this ecosystem engineer in Carpathians particularly important.This study covers preliminary results of the Polish National Science Centre PRELUDIUM BIS 2 research project No. 2020/39/O/ST10/01354, entitled "Impact of European beaver (Castor fiber L.) activity on the environment and human economy along the N-S transect through the Western Carpathians (Poland-Slovakia)".ReferencesKasperczyk B. (1987). Rozprzestrzenianie się bobra europejskiego (Castor fiber L.) w Europie w XX wieku. Przegląd Zoologiczny 31(2), 181-193. (in Polish)Puttock A., Graham H. A., Cunliffe A. M., Elliott M., Brazier R. E. (2017). Eurasian beaver activity increases water storage, attenuates flow and mitigates diffuse pollution from intensively‐managed grasslands. Science of the Total Environment, 576, 430–443. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2016.10.122 Żurowski W. (1986). Bobry w górach. Przyroda Polska, 6, 10-11. (in Polish)
Presenting the International Panel on Land Subsidence (IPLS) - Combat relative sea-level rise at global scale
Authors: Minderhoud Philip S.J. , Shirzaei Manoochehr , Teatini Pietro
Published: February 2023

Accelerated relative sea-level rise (SLR) rate is driven by by changing climate and vertical land motion (VLM) at the world's coastlines. Today, many coastal environments and communities, such as river deltas, wetlands, and cities experience accelerated land subsidence rates due to human-induced processes such as groundwater extraction and coastal populations ( >500M people worldwide) experience, on average, a four times higher relative sea-level rate than the global mean average.
Although subsidence is the dominant force driving relative SLR worldwide, its effect is often still overlooked and/or not fully integrated into global and regional sea-level rise projections. As a result, SLR impact assessments underlying coastal adaptation plans for many governments around the world underestimate future relative SLR rates and consequent flood risks. It is more important than ever for the global scientific community on coastal land subsidence to unite, in a similar fashion as the IPCC has come into existence in the 80's, to combat the growing global challenge of land subsidence.
For this purpose the International Panel on Land Subsidence (IPLS) (www.IPLSubsidence.org) was recently launched. The IPLS initiative welcomes all experts from disciplines related to coastal land subsidence, elevation dynamics and relative sea-level rise. The IPLS is envisioned to grow in the coming years connecting the different research communities working on coastal VLM, to become a global focal point of scientific knowledge on coastal land subsidence and create consistent contemporary rate and projections of coastal VLM for the world’s coastlines.
The IPLS aims to connect the different research communities working on VLM and elevation change in the coastal zone, consolidate knowledge and identify gaps. The IPLS’s first milestones are to 1) present the First Global Assessment Report on Land Subsidence, including 21st-century projections of land elevation, to inform governments, scientific communities and the public worldwide and 2) propose a consistent framework to combine VLM and sedimentation dynamics across scales and disciplines, 3) properly integrate contemporary and projected VLM and coastal elevation change into IPCC's AR7.
The IPLS welcomes experts from all related disciplines to join the initiative and become part of this global effort.