Long-term changes in population size and distribution of Stercorarius maccormicki (Stercorariidae, Charadriiformes) on the Haswell Islands, East Antarctica
Authors:   Papanin Institute for Biology of Inland Waters RAS, Golubev Sergey V. , Golubev Egor S. ,   Demidov Yaroslavl State University
Published: February 2024

Long-term studies are crucial in ecology, environmental change assessment, resource management and biodiversity conservation. Stercorarius maccormicki (hereinafter – south polar skua) are predators that can threaten populations of bird species of the orders Sphenisciformes and Procellariiformes. At many places in Antarctica, abundance trends for the skua are not known or have not been updated. This study is an attempt to answer the question: how did a south polar skua population react to changes in environmental conditions during 1956–2013? The objectives of the study was (1) to establish the dynamics of the breeding skua population on the Haswell Islands, i.e. Haswell Island and the small islands of the Haswell Archipelago during 1956–2013, and (2) to explain the reasons of the changes in the studied population. A secondary research question was whether there were changes in the spatial distribution of the breeding skua population on the Haswell Archipelago during the study period? The studies have been carried out on the Haswell Archipelago (Davis Sea), mainly in Antarctic Specially Protected Area №127 «Haswell Island and adjacent emperor penguin rookery on fast ice». Ground count was the main method for determining the size of bird colonies. South polar skua bred on 3–8 islands of the Haswell Archipelago. In the study period, the population size of the south polar skua has changed on the Haswell Archipelago. A decrease in the number of individuals (-52%) was observed between 1956–1957 and 1966–1967 breeding seasons. Between 1966–1967 and 1999–2000 breeding seasons, the skua population declined by 30.7% and reached the lowest value of 18 pairs. Population growth (344.4%) was recorded between 1999–2000 and 2009–2010 breeding seasons, with an increase of 33.8% and reaching the maximum value (83 pairs) in 2010–2011 breeding season. By 2012–2013 breeding season, the south polar skua population has declined by 13.2%. On Haswell Island, between 1956–1957 and 2012–2013 breeding seasons, there was a change in skua abundance that was similar to the change in the total breeding population on Haswell Archipelago during the entire period. On the small islands of the Haswell Archipelago, the number of breeding south polar skuas declined (-80%) between 1956–1957 and 1962–1963 breeding seasons. The breeding seasons of 1962–1963, 1966–1967 and 1999–2000 were characterised by the lowest number of individuals. Between 1999–2000 and 2009–2010 breeding seasons, the number of south polar skuas increased by 400%. A decrease in abundance (-41.6%) occurred between 2009–2010 and 2010–2011, followed by the consequent increase (by 36.3%) by 2012–2013 breeding season. During the study period, changes in the abundance of south polar skuas on the Haswell Archipelago were independent of changes in average daily November temperatures between 1956–1957 and 2012–2013 breeding seasons (Mann-Whitney test U = 0, p = 0.0017, n = 7 (asymptotic (2-sided))), when they were laying eggs and heating them. The number of south polar skuas changed independently of changes in the number of individuals of their prey, represented by Aptenodytes forsteri, Pygoscelis adeliae, and Fulmarus glacialoides (respectively U = 49, p = 0.0006, n = 7; U = 16, p = 0.029, n = 4; U = 16, p = 0.029, n = 4 (asymptotic (2-sided))). The high mortality of eggs, chicks and local weather conditions could influence the breeding success of the south polar skua, which could have a delayed effect on their long-term dynamics. Human activities have influenced the skua population, but have not been studied quantitatively. On the Haswell Archipelago, the reasons for historical changes in abundance of the breeding skua population remain largely unclear.