bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A Bayesian Assessment of Climate Change Using Multimodel Ensembles. Part I: Global Mean Surface Temperature
Authors: Min Seung-Ki , Hense Andreas
Published: July 2006

A Bayesian approach is applied to the observed global surface air temperature (SAT) changes using multimodel ensembles (MMEs) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) simulations and single-model ensembles (SMEs) with the ECHO-G coupled climate model. A Bayesian decision method is used as a tool for classifying observations into given scenarios (or hypotheses). The prior probability of the scenarios, which represents a degree of subjective belief in the scenarios, is changed into the posterior probability through the likelihood where observations enter, and the posterior is used as a decision function. In the identical prior case the Bayes factor (or likelihood ratio) becomes a decision function and provides observational evidence for each scenario against a predefined reference scenario. Four scenarios are used to explain observed SAT changes: “CTL” (control or no change), “Nat” (natural forcing induced change), “GHG” (greenhouse gas–induced change), and “All” (natural plus anthropogenic forcing–induced change). Observed and simulated global mean SATs are decomposed into temporal components of overall mean, linear trend, and decadal variabilities through Legendre series expansions, coefficients of which are used as detection variables. Parameters (means and covariance matrices) needed to define the four scenarios are estimated from SMEs or MMEs. Taking the CTL scenario as reference one, application results for global mean SAT changes for the whole twentieth century (1900–99) show “decisive” evidence (logarithm of Bayes factor >5) for the All scenario only. While “strong” evidence (log of Bayes factor >2.5) for both the Nat and All scenarios are found in SAT changes for the first half (1900–49), there is decisive evidence for the All scenario for SAT changes in the second half (1950–99), supporting previous results. It is demonstrated that the Bayesian decision results for global mean SATs are largely insensitive to both intermodel uncertainties and prior probabilities.
Development of a 50-Year High-Resolution Global Dataset of Meteorological Forcings for Land Surface Modeling
Authors: Sheffield Justin , Goteti Gopi , Wood Eric F.
Published: July 2006

Understanding the variability of the terrestrial hydrologic cycle is central to determining the potential for extreme events and susceptibility to future change. In the absence of long-term, large-scale observations of the components of the hydrologic cycle, modeling can provide consistent fields of land surface fluxes and states. This paper describes the creation of a global, 50-yr, 3-hourly, 1.0° dataset of meteorological forcings that can be used to drive models of land surface hydrology. The dataset is constructed by combining a suite of global observation-based datasets with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalysis. Known biases in the reanalysis precipitation and near-surface meteorology have been shown to exert an erroneous effect on modeled land surface water and energy budgets and are thus corrected using observation-based datasets of precipitation, air temperature, and radiation. Corrections are also made to the rain day statistics of the reanalysis precipitation, which have been found to exhibit a spurious wavelike pattern in high-latitude wintertime. Wind-induced undercatch of solid precipitation is removed using the results from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Solid Precipitation Measurement Intercomparison. Precipitation is disaggregated in space to 1.0° by statistical downscaling using relationships developed with the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) daily product. Disaggregation in time from daily to 3 hourly is accomplished similarly, using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3-hourly real-time dataset. Other meteorological variables (downward short- and longwave radiation, specific humidity, surface air pressure, and wind speed) are downscaled in space while accounting for changes in elevation. The dataset is evaluated against the bias-corrected forcing dataset of the second Global Soil Wetness Project (GSWP2). The final product provides a long-term, globally consistent dataset of near-surface meteorological variables that can be used to drive models of the terrestrial hydrologic and ecological processes for the study of seasonal and interannual variability and for the evaluation of coupled models and other land surface prediction schemes.
Stretch-orientation of LaRC™ RP50 Polyimide Film
Authors: Hawkins Brian P. , Hinkley Jeffrey A. , Pater Ruth H. , Moore Joanne
Published: June 2006

An addition-curable poly(amic acid) film was subjected to various thermal pretreatments and then to uniaxial or biaxial drawing. Hot-stretching to 300% of the initial length produced better than twofold increases in tensile modulus and strength of partially-cured films. Most of the improvement was maintained upon completion of the curing at constant length.
Pills Gone Wild
Authors: Jaramillo Deborah L.
Published: July 2006

In 1997, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) significantly altered the landscape of commercial media. Because of a clarification of rules regarding advertising, various media would now be able to exploit the vast market potential of pharmaceuticals (or pharmaceutical companies would now be able to exploit the vast marketplace of commercial media). Since 1997, cutting-edge medications have shared the stage with beer, cars, and fast food. The problem is the treatment of prescription drugs as just another line of products between television programs—a trend that is only escalating. This article questions the place of pharmaceuticals on television by exploring the privileged position of commercial speech, the industrial circumstances behind the integration of pharmaceuticals into advertising, the implications of the advertisements, and the role of the FDA in regulating them. By delving into the dangers of mixing drugs and television, the author hopes to make a strong case for tighter, media-centered regulation of direct-to-consumer prescription drug advertisements.
Disulfide bonds determine growth hormone receptor folding, dimerisation and ligand binding
Authors: van den Eijnden Monique J. M. , Lahaye Liza L. , Strous Ger J.
Published: July 2006

The growth hormone receptor contains seven cysteine residues in its extracellular domain. The six in the growth hormone binding domain form disulfide bonds, and help the receptor to gain its correct three-dimensional structure. In this study we replaced the cysteine for serine and alanine residues and investigated their role in growth hormone receptor folding, dimerisation and signal transduction. Folding and growth hormone binding capacity of the wild-type growth hormone receptor require less than two minutes for completion. Although less efficient, all mutant receptors arrive at the cell surface as pre-formed dimers. Disulfide bond C38-C48 is important for efficient maturation. The middle disulfide-bond, C83-C94, is important for ligand binding. Removing disulfide bond C108-C122 has little effect without affecting signalling. When two or all disulfide bonds are changed, ligand binding and activation are blocked. Dimerisation is delayed when all disulfide bonds are destroyed.
Kinetic Studies on the Electron Transfer between Azide and Nickel(IV) Oxime Imine Complexes in Aqueous Solution
Authors: Bhattacharya Santanu , Banerjee Pradyot
Published: June 2006

In aqueous solution at 30 °C, azide is oxidized to N2 by [NiIV(L1)2]2+ and [NiIV(L2)]2+ (where HL1 = 6-amino-3-methyl-4-azahex-3-en-2-one oxime and H2L2 = 3,14-dimethyl-4,7,10,13-tetraazahexadeca-3,13-diene-2,15-dione dioxime). The reaction is of overall second order, first order in both [N3−] and [NiIV] and exhibits a strong dependence on [H+] of the medium. In the range 2.0 ≤ pH < 6.0 for [NiIV(L1)2]2+ and 2.0 ≤ pH < 4.5 for [NiIV(L2)]2+ single step two-electron transfer reactions are encountered, whereas a distinct biphasic process with initial faster step of NiIV → NiIII conversion followed by a second slower step of NiIII → NiII reduction was observed in the range 6.0 ≤ pH ≤ 8.0 and 4.50 ≤ pH ≤ 8.0 for the respective oxidants. The bell-shaped pH-rate profile for the reduction of Ni(IV) → Ni(III) step confirms the involvement of an ‘outside’ protonated Ni(IV)-complex as a kinetic intermediate. All the kinetic parameters have been evaluated and the mechanism of the reaction is discussed. Application of Marcus cross-reaction relations shows that the reaction of [NiIV(Lx)]2+ and N3− follows an outer-sphere mechanism, but the reduction of [NiIII(Lx)]+ may differ from this path.
New Synthesis of Isoquinoline and 3,4-Dihydroisoquinoline Derivatives
Authors: Kobayashi Kazuhiro , Shiokawa Taiyo , Omote Hiroki , Hashimoto Kenichi , Morikawa Osamu , Konishi Hisatoshi
Published: July 2006

A simple and efficient synthesis of isoquinoline and 3,4-dihydroisoquinoline derivatives is described. 1-Alkyl(or aryl)isoquinoline and 1-isoquinolinamine derivatives were obtained by intramolecular cyclization of 2-(2-methoxyethenyl)benzonitriles initiated by the addition of alkyl(or aryl)lithiums and lithium dialkylamides to the nitrile carbons, respectively. Synthesis of 4-aryl-3,4-dihydroisoquinolines was achieved by reactions of 2-(1-arylethenyl)benzonitriles with organolithiums, followed by aqueous workup. Treatment of the reaction mixtures with electrophiles prior to aqueous workup allowed the synthesis of 4,4-disubstituted 3,4-dihydroisoquinolines.
Hydrological evaluation of high‐resolution precipitation forecasts of the Gard flash‐flood event (8–9 September 2002)
Authors: Chancibault K. , Anquetin S. , Ducrocq V. , Saulnier G.‐M.
Published: June 2006

On 8 and 9 September 2002, an extreme flash‐flood event occurred over south‐eastern France. This event was simulated with the non‐hydrostatic mesoscale model Meso‐NH. Several experiments were performed, differing in their initial conditions. A first experiment used the 4D‐Var large‐scale French operational analysis, as initial state. For the second experiment, the initial state was provided by a mesoscale initialization using surface observations, radar and satellite data. Finally, in the last experiment, only the mesoscale analysis of surface observations was used as initial state. The aim of this study is to assess the validity of the high‐resolution simulations for hydrological purposes. Then simulated and observed mean areal rainfall depth, over nine watersheds with surface areas ranging from 200 to 2200 km2, were compared. This comparison highlighted the contribution of both initialization procedures to a better location of the mesoscale convective system and to larger amounts of rain, during the first ten hours of simulation. Also, a hydrological model was used to compare stream flows: the simulated and observed rainfall fields were used as input data to a single‐event TOPMODEL version. The comparison of the hydrological responses shows that the mesoscale initialization leads to higher peak flows and more realistic flood timing than with the simulation starting from large‐scale analysis. The full initialization allowed a simulation of peak flows higher than the ones obtained with the mesoscale surface‐observation initialization. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.
Probabilistic forecasting from ensemble prediction systems: Improving upon the best‐member method by using a different weight and dressing kernel for each member
Authors: Fortin Vincent , Favre Anne‐catherine , Saïd Mériem
Published: June 2006

Ensembles of meteorological forecasts can both provide more accurate long‐term forecasts and help assess the uncertainty of these forecasts. No single method has however emerged to obtain large numbers of equiprobable scenarios from such ensembles. A simple resampling scheme, the ‘best member’ method, has recently been proposed to this effect: individual members of an ensemble are ‘dressed’ with error patterns drawn from a database of past errors made by the ‘best’ member of the ensemble at each time step. It has been shown that the best‐member method can lead to both underdispersive and overdispersive ensembles. The error patterns can be rescaled so as to obtain ensembles which display the desired variance. However, this approach fails in cases where the undressed ensemble members are already overdispersive. Furthermore, we show in this paper that it can also lead to an overestimation of the probability of extreme events. We propose to overcome both difficulties by dressing and weighting each member differently, using a different error distribution for each order statistic of the ensemble. We show on a synthetic example and using an operational ensemble prediction system that this new method leads to improved probabilistic forecasts, when the undressed ensemble members are both underdispersive and overdispersive. Copyright © 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.
Asset Replacement Principles
Authors: Perrin R. K.
Published: July 2006

Using a general model of asset replacement, a replacement principle is derived which applies to both appreciating assets such as forests and depreciating assets such as equipment. The resulting replacement criterion provides a definition of opportunity costs appropriate for the replacement decision. The theory is presented graphically for the continuous time case, and two discrete‐time examples are considered. Theoretical implications of changing discount rates and market forces are considered as they affect replacement policies.
A General Model for Evaluating Agricultural Flood Plains
Authors: Lacewell Ronald D. , Eidman Vernon R.
Published: July 2006

An important part of agricultural flood plain development is providing flood protection. However, planning procedures have been criticized for (1) considering only flood protection methods as means of coping with flood losses, (2) developing inequitable land owner assessments following installation of a protection project, and (3) inadequately anticipating land use adjustments and their effect on project benefits. The model discussed in this paper can be used to estimate the incidence of agricultural flood damages and avoid the above criticisms. The model can be used to evaluate alternative protection plans, estimate flood insurance premiums, equitably allocate assessments, and select improved land use patterns.
Real Property Taxes and Farm Real Estate Values: Incidence and Implications
Authors: Pasour E. C.
Published: July 2006

The relationship between reductions in real property taxes and farm real estate values is investigated. Average per acre value of farm real estate in North Carolina is regressed on the tax rate and other variables relating to farm size, land productivity, urban influence, and recreational demand. The results indicate that property tax reductions for farm real estate are largely capitalized into higher real estate values. The effect of a given decrease in tax rate for owners of farm real estate is contrasted with a similar decrease for owners of residential real estate.
Allocation of Scarce Resources to Agricultural Research: Review of Methodology
Authors: Shumway C. Richard
Published: July 2006

With an increasing stress on research budgets, the impetus for investigation of alternative models for managing research is growing. Much work has been invested already in technique development. To precede additional research, the current state‐of‐the‐art in resource allocation methodology pertinent to agricultural research management is presented. The focus is on quantitative approaches for improving internal consistency of subjective judgments. The marginal principle is applicable to the selection of an optimal investment in management, and a rudimentary framework for implementing that principle is suggested.
Joint Ventures and Family Labor Sized Farms
Authors: Krause Kenneth R.
Published: July 2006

Family labor sized farmers are experimenting with joint ventures to improve their incomes and staying power. Joint ventures supplement but do not replace existing cooperatives. Joint ventures are defined and conditions for success are suggested. Research and educational activities, particularly for extension economists, are discussed.
Costs and Returns of Education in Five Agricultural Areas of Eastern Brazil
Authors: Patrick George F. , Kehrberg Earl W.
Published: July 2006

This study tests the hypothesis that education has a major role in agricultural development by estimating costs and returns of schooling and extension in areas at various modernization levels. Public and private costs are estimated from secondary information and farm surveys. Value‐added and auxiliary equations, estimated from farm‐level data, are used to derive annual returns of education. Although based on weak statistical results, schooling returns are negative or low, but increase with modernization level. Extension returns are generally high for individuals, but cover social costs in only two geographic areas. This suggests education's role in development may be limited.
The Economics of Outer Continental Shelf Leasing
Authors: Kalter Robert J. , Stevens Thomas H. , Bloom Oren A.
Published: July 2006

An analytical framework of the Outer Continental Shelf lands petroleum investment and production decision process is developed and utilized to evaluate public resource leasing policy alternatives. The impacts of alternative lease systems upon rates of production, investment levels, total resource recovery, and government revenue are presented and discussed. Trade‐offs implicit in various leasing strategies and the geophysical‐institutional‐engineering‐economic interactions which must be accounted for in public resource management are pointed out. Possible modifications in the current institutional system are suggested.
A Cross‐Spectral Analysis of Beef Prices
Authors: Barksdale Hiram C. , Hilliard Jimmy E. , Ahlund Mikael C.
Published: July 2006

Changes in retail beef prices lag price changes at other market levels. At the slaughter level, quantity lags prices by approximately nine months over the higher frequencies (short run), but price and quantity are out of phase over the lower frequencies (long run). Independent causality tests support the spectral interpretations.
Social Rates of Return and Other Aspects of Agricultural Research: The Case of Cotton Research in São Paulo, Brazil
Authors: Ayer Harry W. , Schuh G. Edward
Published: July 2006

Economic impacts of investments in cotton seed research and development in São Paulo, Brazil, are estimated. The internal rate of return to Brazilian society is estimated to have been approximately 90 percent. The effect on export earnings was large, and consumers benefited via a decrease in the price and an increase in the quantity of cotton cloth. Of total net benefits producers captured about 60 percent and consumers 40 percent. Landowners and managers received the largest share of producer benefits. Laborers benefited through an increase in employment, but wage rates were not raised. Policy implications are given.
Welfare Implications of Stabilizing Consumption and Production
Authors: Subotnik Abraham , Houck James P.
Published: July 2006

Some economists are now urging the use of buffer stocks to help stabilize farm and food prices. Moreover, price stabilization has been shown to be socially beneficial from a theoretical point of view. Our purpose is to analyze the welfare implications of stabilized consumption and production and to compare them with the known implications of stabilized prices. It is shown that stabilized consumption is the least beneficial in its welfare implications. The relation between the gains from stabilization and the size of buffer stocks necessary to achieve stabilization also is analyzed. Finally, the presentation is extended to cover instability due to fluctuations in export demand.
The Value of Information and the Value of Theoretical Models in Crop Response Research
Authors: Perrin Richard K.
Published: July 2006

The concepts of the value of information and the value of alternative models are developed and applied to corn response research in Brazil. Soil test information was worth as much as $30 per hectare and the response model employed was worth up to $23 per hectare, but two soil classification models had negative values.
Short and Long Run Elasticities in Consumer Demand Theory
Authors: Subotnik Abraham
Published: July 2006

Contrary to statements frequently made in the literature, the own elasticity of demand is not necessarily smaller in the short run than in the long run. It is also shown that the availability of new commodities will not necessarily increase the own elasticity of demand for the existing commodities.
On Exact Multicollinearity and the Estimation of the Cobb‐Douglas Production Function
Authors: Doll John P.
Published: July 2006

The assumptions of the economic model underlying the traditional Cobb‐Douglas production function analysis imply that exact multicollinearity should exist among the inputs. Restricted estimation procedures may lead to parameter estimates with additional economic content. Conventional methods of input aggregation and model specification may result in biased or misinterpreted estimates.
Sparse Data, Estimational Reliability, and Risk‐Efficient Decisions
Authors: Anderson Jock R.
Published: July 2006

The minimal data required for a reasonable estimation of probability distributions is investigated through a Monte Carlo study of a rule for smoothing sparse data into cumulative distribution functions. In a set of estimated distributions, risky prospects not preferred by risk‐averse decision makers can be identified and discarded.
Combining Income and Wealth: An Analysis of Farm Family “Well‐Being”
Authors: Carlin Thomas A. , Reinsel Edward I.
Published: July 2006

Personal distribution of well‐being of farm families relative to all U. S. families is substantially improved when wealth is considered along with money income. The “live poor and die rich” paradox facing older farm families could often be overcome by providing an easier means whereby they could use up equity in family living.
Is There Disinvestment in the Farming Sector?
Authors: Smith Allen G.
Published: July 2006

The farming sector is not in a period of net capital withdrawal. The accounting system for the farm sector in the national economic accounts indicates a net disinvestment, while the USDA Balance Sheet accounts overstate investment. This article presents an alternative which uses a cost basis for land.
Migration Analysis and Farm Number Projection Models: A Synthesis
Authors: MacMillan James A. , Tung F. L. , Tulloch John R.
Published: July 2006

Alternative farm number projection models are examined for the Canadian Prairie Provinces including a synthesis of Markov transition probabilities and migration functions. The procedure indicates a potential for overcoming deficiencies of standard farm projection models. Explanatory variables include: off‐farm work, age of operators, capital, and regional economic structure.
Estimation of Flexibility Coefficients for Recursive Programming Models—Alternative Approaches
Authors: Sahi R. K. , Craddock W. J.
Published: July 2006

This paper presents a critical evaluation of some methods commonly used in estimating flexibility coefficients for recursive programming models. It also suggests an alternative procedure for estimating coefficients that vary from year to year depending upon economic and noneconomic conditions. This method was found empirically superior to some previous approaches.
The Productivity and Allocation of Research: U.S. Agricultural Experiment Stations
Authors: Bredahl Maury , Peterson Willis
Published: July 2006

In this paper are presented estimates of the marginal products and internal rates of return to investment in agricultural research by commodity groups (cash grains, poultry, dairy, and livestock). The results are reported both in terms of national aggregates and on a state‐by‐state basis. Internal rates of return for the country as a whole range from 36% to 46%. At the state level the evidence suggests that the payoff to research is greatest for the commodities with the largest absolute value of output.
Spectral Analysis of Stochastic Properties in Regression: An Application in Supply Response Identification
Authors: Just Richard E.
Published: July 2006

This article demonstrates an empirical investigation of the applicability of the Nerlovian supply response model. Popular statistics, particularly those resulting from regression, may be inadequate and even misleading when a more general adaptive risk model is applicable. Because of the multidimensional nature of spectral tests, the frequency‐domain approach is more robust. The empirical results present a case where popular statistics are misleading, but spectral results support the adaptive risk model. Even spectral techniques may be inadequate for distinguishing between the two models, but at least equal support for both models can be clear with spectral methods.
Efficiency and Equity in Public Research: Rice Breeding in Japan's Economic Development
Authors: Akino Masakatsu , Hayami Yujiro
Published: July 2006

Research contributes to the public good and public support is required in order to attain a socially optimum level of investment in research. However, the extremely high rate of returns to rice research in Japan provides evidence that an underinvestment in agricultural research is typical. Financing rice research out of government tax revenue is rationalized in terms of its contribution to the national goal of economic development.
Economic Criteria for Freshwater Wetland Policy in Massachusetts
Authors: Gupta Tirath R. , Foster John H.
Published: July 2006

The value of wildlife, visual‐cultural benefits, water supply, and flood control benefits of wetlands (varied by benefit productivity levels) are determined with help from appropriate scientists. Comparison of benefit value with opportunity cost of wetland preservation is demonstrated as the basis for decisions concerning permits for wetland alteration.
Employment Impacts of the Economic Development Administration's Public Works Program
Authors: Barrows Richard L. , Bromley Daniel W.
Published: July 2006

Improved rural development policy requires empirical analysis of impacts of past programs. Economic Development Administration Public Works Projects in large urban regions had less employment impact than projects in less populated areas. A growth center strategy would have been a poor guide for allocating the funds in this program.
Estimating a Theoretical Contract Curve between Vertical Stages in the Illinois Grain Industry
Authors: Baldwin E. Dean , Hill Lowell D.
Published: July 2006

The impact of technological change and the corresponding elevator pricing policy is analyzed for an aggregated corn industry. A set of theoretical and empirical profit and cost functions are estimated and are used to illustrate that the competing sectors are not presently on the presumed contract curve and are not maximizing joint industry profits. The analysis suggests alternative pricing policies and resulting market structure patterns which will simultaneously increase profits for all competing sectors and will minimize total industry costs. Differences in characteristics of the grain industry suggest that alternative sets of market structure patterns and pricing policies may develop.
Weight Loss of Fed Steers during Marketing
Authors: Raikes Ronald , Tilley Daniel S.
Published: July 2006

Feeding and marketing practices are related to weight loss of fed steers during marketing. Liveweight and carcass weight losses are higher if feed and water are withheld from steers before slaughter. Packers have incentive to require this practice because the liveweight‐cost reduction exceeds the value of the lost weight.
Efficiency Aspects of Profit‐Sharing Systems versus Wage Systems
Authors: Markusen James R.
Published: July 2006

Some theoretical and practical bases for choosing between wage and profit‐sharing reward structures are considered. The analysis suggests that simple wage systems have theoretical advantages over simple profit‐sharing systems with regard to the optimal provision of labor effort. The opposite conclusion occurs with regard to the optimal use of capital. Furthermore, simple profit‐sharing systems are better able to deal with certain practical problems that arise in large‐scale agricultural production. Finally, a complex type of profit sharing exists which has the same theoretical advantages as the wage system plus practical advantages as well.
Market Intervention Policies When Production Is Risky
Authors: Hazell P. B. R. , Scandizzo P. L.
Published: July 2006

The supplies of many agricultural commodities involve important production risks. In analyzing market intervention policies, these risks should enter the analysis as stochastic elements in the slope of the supply function and not just in the intercept term. This specification leads to the result that optimally distorted prices are more efficient for social welfare than competitive market equilibrium prices. Important gains in social welfare may be obtained with risky products through the appropriate use of production quotas and price stabilization schemes designed to optimally distort the market.
Effects of Changes in the Level of U.S. Beef Imports
Authors: Freebairn J. W. , Rausser Gordon C.
Published: July 2006

Regulatory policies pertaining to beef imports are analyzed on the basis of an econometric model of the livestock sector. The model encompasses the consumption, production, trade, and retail and farm prices of fed beef, other beef, pork, poultry, and inventory levels of livestock used in the production of these products. In terms of consumer welfare, increased beef imports reduce the retail price of all meats with the larger reductions occurring for lower quality of manufacturing beef products, while in the case of producer welfare such increases reduce slaughter steer, cull cow, and feeder calf prices with a heavier burden being placed on cattle breeders relative to cattle feeders.
Economic Aspects of a Nuclear Desalination Agro‐Industrial Project in the United Arab Republic
Authors: Chapman Duane
Published: July 2006

The purpose of the study is to investigate the financial feasibility and social benefits and costs of nuclear desalination agro‐industrial projects. As presently designed, such a complex appears to require deficit financing, provide litttle employment, retard national income growth compared to other investment opportunities, and increase the foreign exchange deficit.
A Model for Managing Reservoir Water Releases
Authors: Biere Arlo W. , Lee Ivan M.
Published: July 2006

Two surface reservoirs in California's Salinas Basin are used to increase recharge of valley aquifers. Under the assumptions of zero price elasticity of demand for groundwater, unregulated groundwater withdrawals, and the objective of economic efficiency, the management criterion is to maximize the present value of expected aquifer recharge where the value of a unit of recharge is the associated reduction in pumping costs. A cyclical Markov dynamic programming management model is developed; optimal strategies are obtained. Results indicate the optimal strategy is relatively stable within the realistic range of alternative groundwater demand growth rates. The marginal value function for reservoir capacity is obtained by parametric analysis.
Trend Models of Feeder, Slaughter, and Wholesale Beef Cattle Prices
Authors: Franzmann John R. , Walker Rodney L.
Published: July 2006

Harmonic regressions were fitted to monthly data to provide a low cost alternative means of predicting prices at three market levels in the beef industry and to provide information on time interrelationships among these market levels. The results have limited prediction potential and support preconceived ideas concerning time interrelationships.
A Sequential Model of the Farm Firm Growth Process
Authors: Chien Ying I. , Bradford Garnett L.
Published: July 2006

Multiperiod linear programming and computer simulation techniques are integrated into a single recursive‐sequential model of the farm firm growth process. The model is tied to dynamic theories of the firm's planning behavior first developed by Hicks and more recently by Modigliani and Cohen. A central Kentucky beef farm empirically illustrates predictive features of the model. Three alternative beef production management strategies are compared to demonstrate the model's potential for explaining and predicting alternative farm firm growth processes.
The Value of Frost Forecasting: A Bayesian Appraisal
Authors: Baquet A. E. , Halter A. N. , Conklin Frank S.
Published: July 2006

The economic value of frost forecasts is estimated under various assumptions concerning prior information, accuracy of forecasts, and the shape of the orchard operator's utility functions. The frost protection decision process is simulated in the context of Bayesian decision making under uncertainty. The averaged seasonal values estimated per day per acre were $@@‐@@5.39 for frost forecasts provided by the U.S. Weather Service, $@@‐@@8.57 for perfect frost forecasts, $@@‐@@4.73 for profit maximizers, and $@@‐@@191.39 for completely ignorant decision makers. The methodology used has general application to determination of economic value of information under conditions of uncertainty.
National Farm Capital Accounts
Authors: Simunek Richard W.
Published: July 2006

Farm capital flows and finance accounts are quantified to the extent possible using national economic accounting procedures applied to existing farm sector data. Outmoded concepts and data gaps preventing accurate monitoring of economic performance are identified. Current accounting definitions cause substantial capital formation to be recorded as asset valuations. Measures of book value capital consumption allowances, net real estate transfers, and saving in the capital finance account reveal that internal capital financing is important for its magnitude and certainty. The national farm capital accounts improve income and production analysis.
Factor Substitution in Colombian Agriculture
Authors: Thirsk Wayne
Published: July 2006

A declining labor share in agriculture is consistent with an elasticity of substitution between labor and other factors greater than unity. Using cross‐section data drawn from a small sample of Colombian crop farms, this study develops a three‐factor model and estimates the Allen‐Uzawa partial substitution elasticities between the factor‐pairs land, labor, and farm machinery. Both Ordinary and Generalized Least Squares estimation procedures provide elasticity estimates that agree with each other and with the results of recent and related research: a substitution elasticity between labor and machinery (capital) of about one and a half is strongly indicated.
Alternative Measures of Supply Elasticities: The Case of São Paulo Coffee
Authors: Saylor R. Gerald
Published: July 2006

Nerlovian supply functions are fitted to post‐World War II coffee data for São Paulo, Brazil. Supply shifts are permitted through the use of dummy variables, and recent specifications of irreversible functions are tested. The modified Nerlovian functions perform best from both the economic and statistical point of view.
Canadian Supply Functions for Livestock and Meat
Authors: Tryfos Peter
Published: July 2006

A model is developed by which the interdependence between livestock supply and inventories is clarified. Data for 1951 to 1971 were used to obtain 3SLS estimates of Canadian supply and stock formation functions for cattle, calves, sheep and lambs, and pigs. Sensitivity of meat production to price and feed cost changes was examined.
An Equilibrium Analysis of U.S. Sugar Poticy
Authors: Gemmill Gordon
Published: July 2006

U.S. sugar policy is examined in an international context by means of a spatial equilibrium model of the world sugar economy in which various trade barriers are imposed. The Sugar Act, which expired in 1974, is found to have had only a minor influence on U.S. price and a small net cost to the nation. International free trade would cause greater adjustment in the European Economic Community than in the United States. Discrimination in trade against Cuba continues to impose large costs on that country. A cartel of cane‐sugar exporters would be very unlikely to succeed.
Attitudes Toward Risk Among Peasants: An Econometric Approach
Authors: Moscardi Edgardo , de Janvry Alain
Published: July 2006

Attitudes toward risk among peasants in Puebla, Mexico, are derived from survey data in a model of safety‐first behavior. The measurements of behavior toward risk obtained are then explained by a set of socioeconomic and structural variables that characterize peasant households. Knowledge of the determinants of attitudes toward risk is, in tum, useful for the purpose of tailoring technological recommendations to particular categories of peasants.
The Influence of Domestic Pricing Policies and Buffer Stocks on Price Stability in the World Wheat Industry
Authors: Zwart A. C. , Meilke K. D.
Published: July 2006

Domestic pricing policies are a major cause of instability in international commodity markets. The modification of such policies could be a viable alternative to buffer stocks in providing stability. A theoretical model of price intervention is developed to show how common forms of intervention destabilize the world market price. A stochastic econometric model is used to show, first, that most countries in the world wheat market have policies which destabilize the wheat market, and, second, that the modification of such policies would prove as effective as a buffer stock policy in stabilizing the wheat market.
Modeling International Grain Trade with Government Controlled Markets
Authors: Abbott Philip C.
Published: July 2006

Government interventions have a pervasive impact on international grain trade, yet models of that trade treat the role of government as an exogenous influence. A model endogenizing government is presented as an alternative to spatial equilibrium trade models. That model is also used to interpret parameters in a net import demand model and to argue that the effect of international prices and production on trade often will be smaller than what is derived from domestic supply and demand equations. Econometric evidence supporting that contention is presented for trade in wheat and feed grains by thirty‐three countries.
Controlling Nonpoint Sediment Sources with Cropland Management: A National Economic Assessment
Authors: Wade James C. , Heady Earl O.
Published: July 2006

Utilization of cropland resources is one of the primary determinants of stream sediment water quality. The management of cropland is one way to improve sediment water quality. Models of the economics and physics of sediment provide insights into the agricultural production system and potential requirements for improved water quality. The application of such a model provides an assessment of the fundamental changes that might be required to accomplish reduced sediment loads through cropland management. The hypothetical water quality policies analyzed give insights into several possible sediment water quality policies.
A Quantitative Investigation of a Political Economy—The Israeli Dairy Program
Authors: Zusman Pinhas , Amiad Amotz
Published: July 2006

The formation of economic policy reflects the underlying economic and political structure. A game theoretic approach is employed in formulating the political structure, which is then combined with the economic structure to yield a model of a political economy. The parameters of the model are estimable from observed behavior. A model of the Israeli dairy program is constructed and estimated. The power relations and the structure of the conflict among interest groups are investigated.
An Evaluation of the Common Agricultural Policy as a Barrier Facing Agricultural Exports to the European Economic Community
Authors: Sampson Gary P. , Yeats Alexander J.
Published: July 2006

The influence of the European Economic Community's Common Agriculture Policy on world agricultural prices and exports of producing nations is analyzed. CAP reduces demand for agricultural imports, imparting more inelasticity into the world demand for them. Increased inelasticity amplifies price fluctuations born by non‐EEC producers. Results stress the need for incorporating the subject of agricultural protection into the agenda of the current multilateral trade negotiations. Since CAP can amplify fluctuations in world agricultural prices, the system has a direct detrimental effect on non‐EEC producers. CAP's potential for trade restriction, under levies and other protectionist measures, is significant.
Pretest Estimation in Regression: A Survey
Authors: Wallace T. Dudley
Published: July 2006

Data are often used to test hypotheses, the outcome of which influences the final model, and the same data are used in estimating the parameters of the final model. This paper reviews the properties of such pretest estimators and surveys recent work on optimal pretest critical values. Implications are drawn for applied econometric research.
Machinery Selection Modeling: Incorporation of Weather Variability
Authors: Danok Abdulla B. , McCarl Bruce A. , White T. Kelley
Published: July 2006

An alternative analytical approach to the important and complex machinery selection problem is proposed. A mathematical programming model is developed which embodies (a) the integer nature of machinery decisions, (b) the stochastic nature of weather, (c) the joint selection of machinery and crop plans, and (d) selection among machinery sets rather than among individual machines. Optimal machinery and crop plans are determined for selected weather probability levels. The robustness of machinery sets over a range of weather conditions is evaluated by subjecting the distributions of outcomes for alternative machinery sets to stochastic dominance criteria. Bias of good‐field‐day distributions is also discussed.
A Model of Crop Selection in Semi‐subsistence Agriculture and an Application to Mixed Agriculture in Fiji
Authors: De Boer A. John , Chandra Satish
Published: July 2006

The vast majority of the world's farmers operate as semi‐subsistence producers. Models of fully subsistence agriculture are modified to allow a two‐goods analysis of cash crop and staple crop production. A further extension allows comparisons between two groups of farmers possessing different production functions for their respective staple crops. Production possibility curves are constructed for each group of farmers and an empirical test formulated. Empirical results confirmed the hypothesized behavioral relationships which would give rise to the observed differences in resource allocation and resource productivity between Indian and Fijian farmers operating within a similar agricultural environment.
Nontariff Barriers: Major Problem in Agricultural Trade
Authors: Hillman Jimmye s.
Published: July 2006

Nontariff barriers have become one of the key issues in agricultural trade policy and trade negotiations. Laws and regulations of a country, in addition to being directly protective, often give administrators wide leeway for interpretation which results in restrictive trade flows. The domestic agriculture of most developed countries is protected by one or more of the following: quantitative restrictions, licensing requirements, variable levies, export subsidies, minimum import prices, import calendars, state trading, mixing regulations, health and sanitary regulations, and standards and labelling. Ultimately, nontariff barriers must be negotiated like tariffs and other protective devices.
Timber Management Decision Making under Imperfect Capital Markets
Authors: Murphy Paul A. , Fortson James C. , Bethune James E.
Published: July 2006

Capital market imperfections seldom have been considered in the choice of financial criteria for making timber management decisions. A forest planning model for evenaged timber management is developed to evaluate criterion selection under imperfect markets. Some investment rules are shown to be equivalent to maximizing the firm's liquidation value for certain capital market conditions. Although imperfect capital markets severely limit wealth accumulation, small deviations from the optimal harvesting schedules do not severely affect the firm's value. Much concern about criterion selection would evaporate if the firm's investing and financing functions were integrated into a single process.
Systems of Land Tenure, Allocative Efficiency, and Economic Development
Authors: Ip P. C. , Stahl C. W.
Published: July 2006

This paper discusses comparative efficiency of resource allocation under alternative forms of land tenure—sharecropping, fixed rental, wage cultivation, and owner cultivation. It shows that when transaction costs, the role of entrepreneurship, and economic incentives are explicitly introduced and analyzed within the framework of intersectoral interactions and linkages, land reform measures redistributing land to the peasants, substituting owner‐cultivators for share tenants, tend to improve agricultural production efficiency, resource allocation between farm and other sectors, and contribute to economic development of less developed countries, contrary to conclusions reached by writers of the “equal efficiency” school.
Empirical Investigation of Beef Gain Roughage‐Concentrate Substitution
Authors: Epplin Francis , Bhide Shashanka , Heady Earl O.
Published: July 2006

The shape of the beef gain roughage‐concentrate isoquant is examined. Data from two beef‐feeding experiments designed to investigate response from alternative combinations of roughage and concentrate are utilized. Isoquants derived from estimated production functions are compared with directly estimated isoquants. The estimates indicate that the isoquant is not strictly convex to the origin. The nonconvex region is more pronounced in estimates obtained from data of steers fed diethylstilbestrol.
The Soviet‐American Grain Agreement and the National Interest
Authors: Brada Josef C.
Published: July 2006

In the 1970s the Soviet Union became a major importer of grain, giving rise to fears that it could extract an undue share of the gains from East‐West trade through the monopsonistic power of its state‐trading organs and by keeping its buying intentions secret. Offer curves depicting Soviet trade are constructed using two alternative characterizations of Soviet trade decision making. We show that the grain agreement between the two countries negates most of the bargaining advantage attributed to the Soviet trade monopoly and may open the Soviet Union to exploitation by the United States.
Farm Mechanization in a Semiclosed Input‐Output Model: The Philippines
Authors: Ahammed Chowdhury S. , Herdt Robert W.
Published: July 2006

Employment and income distribution consequences of farm mechanization are estimated using a semiclosed input‐output model incorporating factor intensity, consumption, and import substitution effects. Rice production and agricultural machinery vectors from the national input‐output table are disaggregated into technology specific subsectors; consumption is disaggregated into five household classes differing in consumption, savings, and imports. Simulations of a one percent change in consumer spending for rice met from one subsector compared to another indicate that indirect effects partially offset employment reduction from machinery and reinforce the employment increase from irrigation intensification. Furthermore, irrigation is found to offset the inequitable effects of mechanization.
Effects of an Export Embargo on Related Goods: Logs and Lumber
Authors: Wiseman A. Clark , Sedjo Roger A.
Published: July 2006

This paper extends and applies the Marshallian derived demand model in the context of international trade. The model is utilized to derive estimates of the market equilibrium, net welfare, and welfare incidence effects of a hypothetical embargo of softwood log exports from the Pacific Coast region of the United States. The approach is potentially applicable to the analysis of various restrictions on primary products exports which may be instituted to maintain the viability of domestic processing industries.