bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Effect of Body Mass Index on Morbidity and Mortality in Patients Undergoing Coronary Artery Bypass Grafting
Authors: Shawky Mohamed , Rizk Yousry Elsaied , Saffan Mohammed Mohammed Mohammed , Wahdan Ashraf Mostafa Elnahas , Elgazzar Mohamed Ahmed Gouda
Published: July 2019

Background: Obesity affects cardiovascular morbidity and mortality, and it increases the risk of coronary artery disease. Despite that, several cardiac surgery risk stratification scores do not consider the effect of obesity on the outcomes. The objective of this research is to study the impact of body mass index (BMI) on morbidity and mortality after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in Egyptian patients.

Methods: This prospective cohort study included 200 patients who underwent CABG for atherosclerotic coronary artery disease. Patients were divided into two groups, group A: patients with BMI ≥ 25 Kg/m2 and group B: patients with BMI < 25 Kg/m2. The mean age in group A was 56± 4.95 years vs. 54± 5.5 years in group B (p= 0.102). Male patients presented 58% of the population in group A vs 74% in group B (p= 0.017). 60% of patients were hypertensive in group A compared to 63% in group B (p= 0.66) and 62%, and 48% were diabetics in group A and B respectively (p= 0.04).

Results: Postoperatively, there was a significant increase in wound infection (40% vs 8%; p< 0.001), chest infection (47% vs. 10% p< 0.001), surgical re-exploration (28% vs. 1%; p< 0.001), prolonged ICU stays (5.3 ± 2.88 vs. 3.93 ± 1.71 days; p< 0.001), ward stay (11.28 ±8.9 vs. 5.48 ± 2.45 days; p< 0.001), mediastinitis (34% vs. 6%; p< 0.001), the occurrence of sternal wound sinus within 8 months (26% vs. 7%; p< 0.001), in group A more compared to group B. There was no difference in ejection fraction (54.2 ±7.38 vs. 54.7 ± 9.1%; p= 0.69) and mortality (4% vs. 2%; p= 0.68) between groups.

Conclusions: BMI 25 Kg/m2 or higher is associated with increased infectious complications and prolonged stay after CABG; however, it did not affect mortality. Optimizing body weight is recommended before elective surgery.
Outcome Prediction after Surgical Management of Prosthetic Mitral Valve Dysfunction; a single center experience
Authors: Badr Abd-Allah , ELanwar Mohamed
Published: July 2019

Background: Prosthetic Mitral valve dysfunction is a serious complication associated with a high mortality rate particularly in obstructive cases. The number of cases undergoing redo mitral valve surgery is increasing. This study aims to identify the risk factors of mortality and morbidity in patients who underwent redo mitral valve surgery for prosthetic mitral valve dysfunction.

 

Methods: This study was conducted on 80 patients who underwent re-operation for management of prosthetic mitral valve dysfunction from December 2014 to February 2018. Patients’ age ranged between 21 and 58 years with a mean of 36.8±9.60 years, and 53 patients (66.3%) were males. The causes of mitral valve malfunction were thrombus in 67 patients (83.7%) and pannus in 13 patients (16.3%).

Results: 53 patients (66.25%) had urgent surgical intervention. Thrombectomy or pannus resection was done in 75 patients (93.75%) and valve replacement in 5 patients (6.25%). Re-exploration was required in 11 patients (13.75%) and was significantly associated with diabetes (p= 0.004), preoperative liver dysfunction (p= 0.04), elevated INR (p= 0.006), trial of thrombolysis (p<0.001) and prolonged ischemic time (p= 0.01). Postoperative renal failure occurred in 11 patients (13.75%) and was associated with diabetes (p< 0.001), preoperative renal dysfunction (p< 0.001), prolonged cardiopulmonary bypass and ischemic times (p< 0.001). 17 patients (21%) required prolonged mechanical ventilation and it was significantly associated with chronic obstructive lung disease (p< 0.001), pulmonary edema (p <0.001), low systolic blood pressure (p <0.001), low ejection fraction (p<0.001) and thrombectomy (p<0.001). Operative mortality occurred in 13 patients (16%) and was significantly associated with preoperative stroke, renal dysfunction, low blood pressure and acute pulmonary edema (p <0.001).

Conclusion: Reoperation for prosthetic mitral valve dysfunction is associated with high morbidity and mortality. Outcomes can be predicted based on preoperative clinical status and operative times. Thrombectomy and pannus resection with the repair of the paravalvular leak is a simple and easy technique for management of those patients with a reduction of cardiopulmonary bypass and cross-clamp times.
Picturebooks: an effective tool to encourage children's English L2 oral production
Authors: Fleta Teresa
Published: July 2019

The purpose of this research-to-practice paper is to delve deeper into the rich potential of picturebooks for eliciting children’s spontaneous speech production during face-to-face conversational interaction. Specifically, it analyses how children apply their existing communicative skills during exposure to the non-textual elements of picturebooks. This in turn enables to get wider understanding of how children learn and use English L2 at an early bilingual immersion school. The study examines the oral narrative production of Spanish-speaking English learners in an early bilingual immersion school. The analytical framework of the study is influenced by studies in the field of child language acquisition. The data are drawn from a 2.5 years longitudinal study of four children (aged 4-5 years at the first recording) from four different classrooms. The conversational interactions created by looking and talking about picturebook illustrations were audio-recorded and the utterances obtained through spontaneous elicitation were transcribed and analysed for emerging syntactic production and for communication strategies. Data analysis provides information on spontaneous oral created language which reflects children’s underlying linguistic competence influenced partly by the learning setting, by the type of input and by the amount of exposure time. Research findings reveal how children use illustrations as a language scaffold and how the English oral language skills develop over time for syntactic development. These findings suggest that picturebooks and even more, picturebook illustrations are ideal tools to elicit oral language from children as well as to support natural acquisition of language. Based on the research findings of this study and on observation of how picturebooks lend themselves to build children’s existing communicative skills, the paper provides several hints to maximize communicative interaction in the young learner’s classroom.
Professional Development of Foreign Language Teachers: The Example of the COMENIUS Project Schule im Wandel (School Undergoing Change)
Authors: Witte Arnd , Eberhardt Annelie
Published: July 2019

This paper explores blended learning in the context of the further professional development of L2 language teachers. Presenting the European Commission-funded COMENIUS project Schule im Wandel, the authors examine issues relevant to  teachers of German as a second language. This course aimed to provide European reference model for the professional development of teachers of modern languages, using Moodle as a virtual and universally accessible learning platform. The course included a set of short thematic documentary films filmed at ten German schools, with associated exercises for learners. The authors describe the aims and architecture of the course, and review two pilot projects which used Schule im Wandel for the purpose of professional development of teachers in Ireland.
Language Policy in an era of Globalisation: Some recent Research from the Higher Education Sector in the Republic of Ireland
Authors: Carthy Una
Published: July 2019

Far from being weakened by the inexorable spread of English in this era of globalisation, the case for institutional language policy is actually strengthened. Indeed, a recent study conducted in the Republic of Ireland provides evidence to support this argument. The Institutes of Technology (IoT) are an interesting case study in this regard. Recent empirical research conducted throughout the IoT sector suggests that institutional policy i.e. a clearly articulated position regarding language matters, is not only being recommended at official EU policy level, but also supported at grass roots level by both students and lecturers. Quantitative and qualitative data were collected over a three year period to gain an in-depth understanding of this complex, multifaceted issue. The findings reveal that there is a demand across all academic disciplines for a broadening of language provision; furthermore, it has emerged that this demand is not currently being met. The expressed desire for greater provision implies the need for institutional language policy. This research substantiates and reinforces the findings of previous studies and reports, stating that institutional support is needed to empower, enlighten and motivate language learners. In the absence of an explicitly articulated institutional position regarding language, it is probable that an implicit default to a monolingual, monocultural, anglocentric status quo will prevail.
Dearcthaí agus Cleachtais Ghairmiúla maidir le Tionchar an Tumoideachais ar Dhaltaí i nGaelscoileanna atá lonnaithe i gCeantair faoi Mhíbhuntáiste: Deiseanna agus Dúshláin
Authors: Ní Chlochasaigh Karen , Ó Duibhir Pádraig , Shiel Gerry
Published: July 2019

Irish immersion education, although traditionally deemed as an advantage enjoyed principally by middle-class families where parents were a driving force of demand and promotion, has become increasingly available to a more diverse body of students throughout Ireland. Diversity takes shape mainly in the socio-economic, linguistic, ethnic and special educational needs of students from various backgrounds attending Irish-medium schools. Thirteen Irish-medium primary schools situated in designated areas of disadvantage throughout Ireland are part of the DEIS1 Plan, which offers additional support to improve the educational experiences and outcomes of young people who are at social disadvantage.

This paper examines the challenges and benefits of immersion for students in Irish-medium education in disadvantaged settings. We present data collected from school principals, teachers and special education teachers on the issues that impact the schools and their students. The main issues highlighted were poor acquisition of English as a first language, attending to the needs of children with learning difficulties, lack of awareness and diagnostic tools in Irish during psychological assessments, lack of parental support, deficiencies in appropriate teaching and assessment resources through Irish, the absence of language support for Irish and a language support teacher, and a need for a greater emphasis in teacher education on immersion education and on education in socially disadvantaged settings.
The Native Scientist project in Ireland: Promoting Heritage Languages through informal Engagements with Scientists
Authors: La Morgia Francesca , Correia Tatiana , Moscoso Joana A.
Published: July 2019

This project report focuses on the results of a series of heritage language STEM workshops which were run in Ireland by the organization Native Scientist. The results indicate that the workshops represent a positive experience for children and scientists, and show high potential to enhance the linguistic skills of bilingual pupils.
The Vocabulary Richness of Children’s Television in Ireland: A Cross-generational Comparison
Authors: Ceroni Anna , McTiernan Kathleen , La Morgia Francesca
Published: July 2019

This research investigates whether the vocabulary richness of children’s programming has changed over one generation, and therefore compares the programmes offered in 1992 to those offered in 2017. Three hours of programming were sourced, transcribed and coded using the Computerised Language Analysis (CLAN) software (MacWhinney, 1984). CLAN is a language analysis software originally developed for the purpose of analysing child language which allows for the detailed transcription and analysis of linguistic data, including statistical measures of lexical diversity (Pye & MacWhinney, 1994).

The total words, words per minute, vocabulary diversity, total object, action, attribute and affective-state words as well as the total object, action, attribute and affective-state words spoken in the presence of a referent were calculated and compared for the programming.

The vocabulary richness of children’s television has decreased over time. The number of words spoken in the presence of referents in the programming has increased over time, with this increase being significant for action and attribute words. This pattern of findings reflects a trend in children’s television towards the production of programmes of reduced lexical complexity which may facilitate children’s word learning.
Kelvin probe force microscopy of the nanoscale electrical surface potential barrier of metal/semiconductor interfaces in ambient atmosphere
Authors: Knotek Petr , Plecháček Tomáš , Smolík Jan , Kutálek Petr , Dvořák Filip , Vlček Milan , Navrátil Jiří , Drašar Čestmír
Published: July 2019

This study deals with the preparation and characterization of metallic nanoinclusions on the surface of semiconducting Bi2Se3 that could be used for an enhancement of the efficiency of thermoelectric materials. We used Au forming a 1D alloy through diffusion (point nanoinclusion) and Mo forming thermodynamically stable layered MoSe2 nanosheets through the reaction with the Bi2Se3. The Schottky barrier formed by the 1D and 2D nanoinclusions was characterized by means of atomic force microscopy (AFM). We used Kelvin probe force microscopy (KPFM) in ambient atmosphere at the nanoscale and compared the results to those of ultraviolet photoelectron spectroscopy (UPS) in UHV at the macroscale. The existence of the Schottky barrier was demonstrated at +120 meV for the Mo layer and −80 meV for the Au layer reflecting the formation of MoSe2 and Au/Bi2Se3 alloy, respectively. The results of both methods (KPFM and UPS) were in good agreement. We revealed that long-time exposure (tens of seconds) to the electrical field leads to deep oxidation and the formation of perturbations greater than 1 µm in height, which hinder the I–V measurements.
Synthesis of 9-O-arylated berberines via copper-catalyzed CAr–O coupling reactions
Authors: Teng Qiaoqiao , Zhu Xinhui , Guo Qianqian , Jiang Weihua , Liu Jiang , Meng Qi
Published: July 2019

Berberine is a widely used antimicrobial agent in clinic. However, a high dosage is often required due to its low lipophilicity and bioavailability. The current study explores the structural modifications of berberines with potentially lipophilic aryl groups to address this problem. A series of 15 9-O-aryl-substituted berberines (3a–o) and one 9-O-phenylene-bridged berberine dimer (5) was synthesized by copper-catalyzed cross-coupling of tetrahydroberberrubine and aryl iodides, followed by oxidation with I2.
Autoregressive Planet Search: Application to the Kepler Mission
Authors: Caceres Gabriel A. , Feigelson Eric D. , Babu G. Jogesh , Bahamonde Natalia , Christen Alejandra , Bertin Karine , Meza Cristian , Curé Michel
Published: July 2019

The 4 yr light curves of 156,717 stars observed with NASA’s Kepler mission are analyzed using the autoregressive planet search (ARPS) methodology described by Caceres et al. The three stages of processing are maximum-likelihood ARIMA modeling of the light curves to reduce stellar brightness variations, constructing the transit comb filter periodogram to identify transit-like periodic dips in the ARIMA residuals, and Random Forest classification trained on Kepler team confirmed planets using several dozen features from the analysis. Orbital periods between 0.2 and 100 days are examined. The result is a recovery of 76% of confirmed planets, 97% when period and transit depth constraints are added. The classifier is then applied to the full Kepler data set; 1004 previously noticed and 97 new stars have light-curve criteria consistent with the confirmed planets, after subjective vetting removes clear false alarms and false positive cases. The 97 Kepler ARPS candidate transits mostly have periods of P < 10 days; many are ultrashort period hot planets with radii <1% of the host star. Extensive tabular and graphical output from the ARPS time series analysis is provided to assist in other research relating to the Kepler sample.
The Effect of Weak Magnetic Twist on Resonant Absorption of Slow Sausage Waves in Magnetic Flux Tubes
Authors: Sadeghi Mohammad , Karami Kayoomars
Published: July 2019

Observations show that twisted magnetic flux tubes are present throughout the Sun’s atmosphere. The main aim of this work is to obtain the damping rate of sausage modes in the presence of weak magnetic twist. Using the connection formulae obtained by Sakurai et al., we investigate resonant absorption of the sausage modes in the slow continuum under photospheric conditions. We derive the dispersion relation and solve it numerically, and consequently obtain the frequencies and damping rates of the slow surface sausage modes. We conclude that the magnetic twist can result in strong damping in comparison with the untwisted case.
Invasive alien plant species in unmanaged forest reserves, Austria
Authors: Lapin Katharina , Oettel Janine , Steiner Herfried , Langmaier Magdalena , Sustic Dunja , Starlinger Franz , Kindermann Georg , Frank Georg
Published: July 2019

Invasive alien plant species (IAS) are one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity and the sustainable functioning of ecosystems and mitigating the threat posed by them is therefore of great importance. This study presents the results of a 15-year investigation into how IAS occur within natural forest reserves (NFR): unmanaged forest ecosystems within Austria, concluding that unmanaged forests are not resistant to plant invasions. The study comprised ground vegetation, regeneration, and stand structure surveys. The presence or absence of IAS in different forest types was assessed and the influencing variables for their presence or absence were determined. In addition, the study analysed whether the abundance of IAS has increased at the site level within the past decade. Significant differences in the probability of IAS presences between forest types (photosociological alliances) were found. The results of the study show that natural riparian and floodplain forests are among the forest types most vulnerable to biological invasions, which is reflected in elevation and soil type being determined as the main factors influencing the spread of IAS in unmanaged forests. The results of this study may be useful for persons responsible for sustainable forest management programmes or for managing forested areas within national parks. They provide a case study on non-intervention forest management policy in order to mitigate the impacts of IAS in protected areas. Forest areas, where IAS begin to spread can be identified, which in turn leads to measures in the early stages of invasion, and to optimise monitoring and control measures for relevant species in Central European forest types.
Reproductive biology of the mutton hamlet on the coast of Pernambuco, northeastern Brazil
Authors: Simoni Maria Ester Ribeiro , Filho Edson Bortoletto Garciov , de Oliveira Paulo Guilherme Vasconcelos , Gomes do Rêgo Mariana , Hazin Fábio Hissa Vieira , Travassos Paulo
Published: July 2019

This paper focuses on the reproductive biology of the Mutton Hamlet, Alphestesafer, a fish belonging to the family Epinephelidae, and aims to provide information on the main reproductive parameters of the species on the north coast of the state of Pernambuco, northeastern Brazil. From a total of 783 individuals, collected between March 2007 and June 2010, and from February to November 2014, the gonads of 322 fishes (235 females and 87 males) were analyzed, for the identification of sex and maturational stages. Females were more abundant and larger than males, with a sex ratio of 2.4 females: 1 male, during the reproduction season. The size at first maturity (L50) was estimated at 16.8 cm total length for females, and 16.2 cm for males. The gonadosomatic index (GSI) indicated that a reproductive cycle occurs all year round, while reproduction takes place from June to November. The fecundity of Alphestesafer ranged from 105,317 to 270,192 oocytes, averaging 173,458 oocytes. The females are more abundant than males due to the process of protogyny and also because individuals are regularly captured at growth stages above the L50, being a positive aspect for the sustainability of the fishery. According to the GSI, the species presents a split-type spawning with two peaks occurring throughout the year.
Three new species of Lachemilla (Rosaceae) from South America
Authors: Morales-Briones Diego F. , Romoleroux Katya , Tank David C.
Published: July 2019

Three new species ofLachemilla(Rosaceae), two from Colombia and one from Peru, are described and illustrated.Lachemillarothmalerianais characterized by its stout stems, sericeous-villous indumentum, and wide ascending sheaths with trilobate lateral lobes.Lachemillaargenteapresents a unique combination of tripartite basal leaves with an adaxial silvery villous indumentum, and decumbent branches with verticillate lobed sheaths. Finally,Lachemillacyaneahas distinctly basal reniform leaves with a blue-green color and hirsute pubescence. Phylogenetic analyses of the nuclear ribosomal cistron and multiple regions of the plastid genome revealed the allopolyploid origin of the three new taxa.
Recircumscription of Bredia and resurrection of Tashiroea (Sonerileae, Melastomataceae) with description of a new species T. villosa
Authors: Zhou Qiu-Jie , Dai Jin-Hong , Lin Che-Wei , Denda Tetsuo , Zhou Ren-Chao , Liu Ying
Published: July 2019

Bredia(Melastomataceae) is an Asian genus that extends from central and southern mainland China to Taiwan and the Ryukyu islands. Molecular phylogenetic analyses reveal that the type ofBrediais nested in a clade of 20 species, whileTashiroea, a genus previously synonymized inBredia, falls in another distantly related clade of 10 species. Our morphological survey shows that the two clades can be distinguished by several diagnostic features including leaf indumentum, texture, leaf surface sculpture under SEM, presence/absence of yellowish uniseriate trichomes, and capsule morphology. Based on molecular and morphological evidence,Brediais recircumscribed andTashiroeais resurrected. Description and a list of species are provided for the two genera with the description of a new species,T.villosa.
Les initiatives de l’Otan depuis le début de la crise ukrainienne
Authors: Lasconjarias Guillaume
Published: July 2019

Le déclenchement de la crise ukrainienne et la prise illégale de la Crimée par la Russie ont surpris l’Alliance atlantique, qui a tardé à réagir. Le statut particulier de l’Ukraine, partenaire mais non allié, a cependant conduit les États à se doter des outils pour éviter cet effet de surprise. Politiquement d’abord, l’Alliance a souhaité montrer un front uni et rappelé les principes sur lesquels se fonde l’organisation. Militairement ensuite, le sommet du pays de Galles a accouché d’un plan « réactivité » engerbant l’intégralité des mesures d’assurance et d’adaptation destinées à garantir la crédibilité de l’Alliance. Pourtant, les défis demeurent et l’Organisation du traité de l’Atlantique Nord (OTAN) aura fort à faire pour maintenir la cohésion de membres dont les visions des principales menaces sont parfois divergentes et contradictoires.
La Politique européenne de voisinage à l’épreuve de la guerre en Ukraine
Authors: Lavallée Chantal
Published: July 2019

L’analyse s’inscrit dans le débat politique sur la réaction de l’Union européenne à l’égard des transformations politiques dans son voisinage, notamment avec les affrontements en Ukraine. À la lumière des enjeux sécuritaires à l’Est et du réexamen de la Politique européenne de voisinage en 2015, l’article jette d’abord un regard critique sur les fondements et les principes de cette politique depuis son lancement en 2004. Il évalue ensuite les défis de sa mise en œuvre à l’Est, dans le cadre du Partenariat oriental, à l’heure de la guerre en Ukraine. Il s’interroge, en dernier lieu, sur la portée des nouvelles orientations de la PEV et sur les conditions de la relance des relations Union européenne-Russie. Malgré la tourmente, l’Union européenne ne propose pas de moyens concrets pour favoriser une meilleure interaction entre le Partenariat oriental et le partenariat stratégique avec la Russie, et s’en remet encore à l’Organisation du traité de l’Atlantique Nord (OTAN) et aux États-Unis pour assurer la sécurité du continent.
Les facteurs humains et organisationnels dans le cadre de la résilience de l'État
Authors: Bordes Marjorie , Boumrar Julie
Published: July 2019

Résumé En 2008, le Livre blanc sur la défense et la sécurité nationale ( LBDSN ) s'appropriait le terme de « résilience ». Définie comme un objectif stratégique pour l'État et l'ensemble des composantes de la société civile, elle est mise à l'épreuve par des crises de différentes natures sur le territoire national. Pour faire face à un environnement stratégique complexe, instable et évolutif, l'État doit développer sa capacité de résilience, en s'appuyant notamment sur des facteurs humains et organisationnels qui lui permettront de poursuivre ses missions prioritaires dans un contexte fortement dégradé. S'appuyer sur la diversité des acteurs de la gestion des crises, favoriser l'apprentissage et planifier l'organisation gouvernementale de la réponse sont autant de pistes à développer et à approfondir dans ce cadre.
Maîtrise des armements conventionnels et sécurité européenne : la montée des périls
Authors: Schmitt Olivier
Published: July 2019

Résumé Le régime de maîtrise des armements conventionnels en Europe élaboré à la fin de la guerre froide est considérablement affaibli, du fait d'une combinaison de violations non sanctionnées au nom d'une « approche flexible » censée faciliter la coopération, et d'un manque de ressources administratives de la part de l'OSCE et des États parties pour exercer un contrôle efficace. Cet affaiblissement du régime est également un signe clair du retour de la compétition de sécurité en Europe, qui augmente les risques de conflits conventionnels dans la zone. La France et les pays de l'OTAN doivent, sur le court terme, prendre acte de cette compétition de sécurité en renforçant la dissuasion conventionnelle (notamment par une augmentation de la fréquence et des volumes de forces engagés lors d'exercices multinationaux), tout en explorant sur le moyen terme avec la Russie une possible réforme de l'OSCE et un nouveau traité de limitation des armements pour remplacer le Traité FCE.
Le spectre des menaces russes dans les Pays baltes
Authors: Kalibataitė Živilė
Published: July 2019

Résumé Le flanc oriental de l'UE et de l'OTAN est sous haute tension depuis le début de la crise ukrainienne en 2014. L'Estonie, la Lettonie et la Lituanie, membres de l'OTAN et de l'UE depuis 2004, s'inquiètent face à la posture provocatrice du Kremlin. Les menaces qui pèsent sur la sécurité et la stabilité de ces États, et par ricochet sur l'architecture de sécurité en Europe, sont à la fois militaires et non militaires.
Pour une approche longitudinale de la lutte antiterroriste au Sahel
Authors: Schnell Fiona
Published: July 2019

Résumé La stabilisation sécuritaire sahélienne doit passer par une réflexion sur le temps long, de dix à vingt ans, liée à la prévention contre le terrorisme et à la lutte contre les trafics. Adopter une perspective longitudinale et générationnelle est impératif, car elle aboutit à faire émerger des bénéfices financiers de la mise en  uvre des stratégies de refonte territoriale. Or, financer les réformes de l'administration territoriale contribue à renforcer les modèles de gouvernance permettant d'aboutir à des objectifs de réinsertion et de légitimation politique. Face à la menace sahélienne, les contributions financières, individuelles et collectives sont souvent envisagées sur le court ou moyen terme, en particulier en matière de déploiement, de formation et de développement. L'élargissement dans le temps des stratégies insérant les défis territoriaux de la décentralisation pourrait maximiser l'effort de défense afin d'aboutir à une sortie de crise.
Les évolutions stratégiques d'un « petit pays » et leur importance pour la France : le cas de la Mongolie
Authors: Maire Antoine
Published: July 2019

Résumé L'étude du cas mongol et des évolutions stratégiques auxquelles ce pays fait face doit permettre de mieux comprendre les déterminants stratégiques du développement des relations franco-mongoles. Pour ce faire, cette contribution présente le contexte stratégique au sein duquel s'insère la Mongolie. Elle évoque l'évolution des relations bilatérales entre la France et ce pays, et ses « déterminants stratégiques ». Elle conclut en soulignant l'intérêt pour la France de tenir compte des « petits pays pourvoyeurs de stabilité » dans le cadre de l'élaboration d'une stratégie de défense et de sécurité nationale.
La Chine, nouvel acteur de la lutte contre le terrorisme international
Authors: Julienne Marc
Published: July 2019

Résumé Du fait de l'existence de courants séparatistes sur son territoire et de son développement international rapide, la Chine est de plus en plus confrontée à des menaces sécuritaires transnationales telles que le terrorisme. Ces menaces pèsent sur son territoire national, sur son voisinage et dans des régions du monde dans lesquelles elle possède des intérêts. Ainsi, pour se prémunir contre ces menaces, Pékin s'implique davantage dans la lutte contre le terrorisme, au travers de coopérations bilatérales et multilatérales, et d'une posture militaire plus affirmée sur la scène internationale.
Cartographier le cyberespace : le cas des actions informationnelles russes en France
Authors: Pétiniaud Louis , Limonier Kévin
Published: July 2019

Résumé La Russie développe depuis plusieurs années une nouvelle stratégie d'influence à l'étranger, qui se déploie particulièrement dans le cyberespace. Au c ur de celle-ci, la production massive de contenu médiatique par des agences de presse russes et leur propagation via les réseaux sociaux ont montré une efficacité certaine. Ces nouvelles pratiques invitent à développer des méthodes innovantes d'analyse et de cartographie. En prenant pour étude de cas la campagne présidentielle française de 2017, et en usant de bases de données récoltées sur le réseau Twitter, cet article présente de manière succincte de nouvelles méthodes de cartographie du réseau d'influence et des relais de la puissance informationnelle russe en France.
Le combat numérique : une révolution stratégique pour les schémas de pensée ?
Authors: Hérisson Audrey
Published: July 2019

Résumé Avec le combat numérique, l'urgence de la question des schémas de pensée se fait particulièrement sentir. Elle demande une prise de conscience de la diversité des logiques de réseau, une véritable révolution dans nos modèles de réflexion, nos schémas de pensée, pour comprendre ceux qui ne sont pas les nôtres. C'est aujourd'hui un des enjeux majeurs de l'anticipation stratégique. La logique de l'espace numérique demande une approche plus complexe que celle que nous ont transmise, pour l'espace physique, la physique d'Aristote, la géométrie euclidienne et la mécanique newtonienne. Le combat numérique, qu'il soit défensif ou offensif, ne peut plus se permettre, notamment, de faire l'impasse sur l'informatique quantique et le chiffrement quantique. Il est ainsi nécessaire, dans ce domaine du cyber, de comprendre des schémas de pensée autres pour être performant dans l'anticipation des actions adverses et pour avoir une longueur d'avance.
Une note sur la mesure du coût socio-économique d'un conflit militaire
Authors: Pietri Antoine
Published: July 2019

Résumé Le coût d'un conflit militaire se décompose en coûts budgétaires et coûts socio-économiques. Ces derniers représentent l'ensemble des coûts supportés par l'économie nationale. Cette note propose une taxonomie des coûts socio-économiques d'un conflit militaire et insiste sur les difficultés méthodologiques d'une analyse quantitative. Nous présentons les principaux enjeux associés à une telle évaluation et préconisons l'élaboration d'études régulières sur les coûts socio-économiques des conflits.
Analyse économique de la soutenabilité des opérations extérieures
Authors: Malizard Julien , Droff Josselin
Published: July 2019

Résumé La France est engagée dans de nombreuses opérations extérieures dont le coût s'élève à plus d'un milliard d'euros par an depuis presque dix ans. L'examen des « surcoûts des OPEX » illustre les nouvelles modalités d'intervention. L'objet de cette contribution est d'examiner, sous l'angle économique, le coût opérationnel supporté par les armées. Il s'agit d'un coût difficile à appréhender car il n'a pas de valeur économique par essence, de sorte que l'on est obligé de recourir à des analyses indirectes, via les conséquences sur les hommes et les matériels. On montre que, depuis 2010, de graves défaillances apparaissent et peuvent, à terme, conduire à réduire le potentiel militaire de la France. Plusieurs pistes d'amélioration sont discutées en conclusion.
Quel(s) lien(s) entre les luttes contre le terrorisme et le changement climatique ?
Authors: Baillat Alice
Published: July 2019

Résumé Cet article analyse la nature des corrélations entre changement climatique, misère, radicalisation et terrorisme, et met en évidence l'existence d'un cercle vicieux entre ces phénomènes. Il revient ensuite sur deux cas d'étude qui nourrissent les controverses actuelles sur ces questions : l'expansion de Boko Haram dans la région du lac Tchad et celle de l'État islamique (Daesh) en Syrie. Il alerte sur les risques de dépolitisation des conflits sous-tendus par la surestimation des facteurs climatiques, et démontre que c'est bien la réponse gouvernementale apportée aux crises environnementales et humanitaires, et la capacité de l'État à protéger sa population qui déterminent la propension d'un groupe criminel à s'étendre sur un territoire.
La prudence du prince : les assassinats ciblés et leurs conséquences stratégiques, internationales et politiques
Authors: Ferey Amélie
Published: July 2019

Résumé Les assassinats ciblés désignent l'utilisation de la force létale par un sujet de droit international avec l'intention préméditée et délibérée de tuer individuellement les personnes sélectionnées qui ne se trouvent pas sous la garde des États concernés. L'objet de cet article est l'analyse de cette critique dite « conséquentialiste » des assassinats ciblés qui examine leurs résultats. Ces opérations sont-elles contre-productives ? Incarnent-elles une utilisation inconséquente de la force ? Je distingue trois ordres de conséquences : stratégiques ­ produisent-elles des résultats efficaces ? ; internationales ­ quelles sont leurs conséquences pour le principe de souveraineté ? ; et politiques ­ quel est leur impact sur le caractère démocratique des États qui les emploient ? Fragilisent-elles l'État de droit ? Je conclus mon étude par un examen de la situation française qui fait figure d'exception parmi les pays cités. Il existe une incertitude de l'État français sur la position à adopter vis-à-vis de cet emploi de la force, qui complique la délibération collective sur sa légitimité.
Effect of a Solution-Focused Approach on Self-Efficacy and Self-Esteem in Turkish Adolescents With Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder
Authors: Karakaya Dudu , Özgür Gönül
Published: July 2019

The aim of the current research was to evaluate the effect of a solution-focused approach on levels of self-efficacy and self-esteem in adolescents with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). A mixed design was used, where the quantitative aspect was a randomized controlled study and the qualitative aspect was a case study design. Adolescents with ADHD (
N
= 41) were randomized into intervention or control groups. Control groups received existing treatment in outpatient clinics, whereas interviews based on a solution-focused approach were conducted with the intervention groups. After the interventions, differences were noted between groups with time, self-efficacy, and self-esteem, with increases in self-efficacy and self-esteem. Significant differences were found between postintervention and follow-up scores. Six themes were determined in the qualitative findings. Nurses in the adolescent mental health field can use the principles and techniques of the solution-focused approach when providing care. [
Journal of Psychosocial Nursing and Mental Health Services, 57
(11), 45–55.]
Lacrimal Sac Identification in Dacryocystorhinostomy Surgery
Authors: Dryden Robert M , Wilkes T David I
Published: July 2019

SUMMARY

The intraoperative identification and opening of the lacrimal sac is generally performed by cutting down on the tip of a lacrimal probe passed down one canaliculus. While easily performed in most cases, this step is frequently associated with difficulty, confusion, and orbital fat exposure particularly if the internal common punctum is imperforate or the sac is scarred. The authors present an alternative method for opening the sac based upon simple anatomic concept.
Evaluation of Student Performance with Predicted Learning Curve Based on Grey Models for Personalized Tutoring
Authors: Liu Manqiang , Zhang Qingsheng
Published: July 2019

Learning time of student is precious, over-practice of target knowledge component wastes student’s time, however, under-practice may mean the student may not grasp target knowledge component properly. To any student, it is helpful if intelligent tutoring system can determine how many practice opportunities needed for mastery of knowledge component. In this paper, to improve student’s learning efficiency, a method of predicted learning curve based on grey models is proposed to determine the counts of practice op-portunity for mastery of knowledge component. The experimental results show that the predicted value on error rate of practice opportunity over knowledge component with the proposed method is much closer to the value of real learning curve than the predicted learning curve produced by learning factors analysis. It implies the proposed prediction method is potential to present reasonable practices for personalized tutoring.
Variability of cirrus cloud properties using a PollyXT Raman Lidar over high and tropical latitudes
Authors: Voudouri Kalliopi Artemis , Giannakaki Elina , Komppula Mika , Balis Dimitris
Published: July 2019

Abstract. Measurements of cirrus clouds geometrical and optical properties, performed with a multi-wavelength PollyXT Raman Lidar, during the period 2008 to 2016 are analysed. The measurements were performed with the same instrument, during sequential periods, in three places at different latitudes, Gual Pahari (28.43° N, 77.15° E, 243 m a.s.l) in India, Elandsfontein (26.25° S, 29.43° E, 1745 m a.s.l) in South Africa and Kuopio (62.74° N, 27.54° E, 190 m a.s.l) in Finland. The lidar dataset has been processed by an automatic cirrus cloud detection algorithm. In the following, we present a statistical analysis of the lidar derived geometrical characteristics (cloud boundaries, geometrical thickness) and optical properties of cirrus clouds (cloud optical depth, lidar ratio, ice crystal depolarization ratio) measured in different latitudes that correspond to subtropical and subarctic regions as well as their seasonal variability. The effect of multiple-scattering from ice particles to the derived optical products is also considered and corrected in this study. Our results show that, over the subtropical stations, cirrus layers, which have a noticeable monthly variability, were observed between 7 to 13 km, with mid-cloud temperatures ranging from −60 °C to −21 °C and a mean thickness of 1295 ± 489 m and 1383 ± 735 m for Gual Pahari and Elandsfontein respectively. The corresponding overall mean cirrus optical depth at 355 nm is calculated to be 0.59 ± 0.39 and 0.40 ± 0.33, with lidar ratio values at 355 nm of 26 ± 12 sr and 25 ± 6 sr, respectively. A more extended dataset was acquired for the subarctic area of Kuopio Finland, between 2012 and 2016. The estimated average geometrical thickness of the cirrus clouds over Kuopio is 1200 ± 585 m and the temperature values vary from −71 °C to −21 °C, while the mean cirrus optical depth at 355 nm is 0.25 ± 0.2, with an estimated mean lidar ratio of 33 ± 7 sr, similar to the idar ratio values observed over middle latitude stations. The kind of information presented here can be rather useful in the cirrus parameterizations required as input to radiative transfer models, and can be a complementary tool to satellite products that cannot provide cloud vertical structure. In addition, a ground-based statistics of the cirrus properties could be useful in the validation and improvement of the corresponding derived products from satellite retrievals.
21st Century Asian air pollution impacts glacier in northwestern Tibet
Authors: Sierra-Hernández M. Roxana , Beaudon Emilie , Gabrielli Paolo , Thompson Lonnie G.
Published: July 2019

Abstract. Over the last four decades, Asian countries have undergone significant economic development leading to rapid urbanization and industrialization in the region. Consequently, fossil fuel consumption has risen dramatically worsening the air quality in Asia. Fossil fuel combustion emits particulate matter containing toxic metals that can adversely affect living organisms, including humans. Thus, it is imperative to investigate the temporal and spatial extent of metal pollution in Asia. Recently, we reported a continuous and high-resolution 1650–1991 ice core record from the Guliya ice cap in northwestern Tibet, China showing a contamination of Cd, Pb and Zn during the 20th century. Here, we present a new continuous and high-resolution ice core record of trace metals from the Guliya ice cap that comprises the years between 1971 and 2015, extending the 1650–1991 ice core record into the 21st century. Non-crustal Cd, Pb, Zn and Ni enrichments increased since the 1990s reaching a maximum in 2008. The enrichments of Cd, Pb, Zn, and Ni increased by ~ 75 %, 35 %, 30 %, and 10 %, respectively during the 2000–2015 period relative to 1971–1990. Our analysis suggests that emissions from Pakistan's fossil fuel combustion (by road transportation and the manufacturing and construction industries) became the dominant source of Cd, Pb, Zn, and Ni deposited on Guliya between 1995 and 2015. However, it is possible that emissions from Central Asia, Afghanistan, India, Nepal, and the Xinjiang province in China have also impacted Guliya during the 21st century. The enrichments of Cd, Zn, and Ni declined after 2008 likely due to a coal consumption decrease in Pakistan at that time. This new record demonstrates that the current emissions in Asia are impacting remote high-altitude glaciers in the region and that mitigation policies and technologies should be enforced to improve the air quality as economic development continues in most Asian countries.
Complementing CO2 emission reduction by solar radiation management might strongly enhance future welfare
Authors: Helwegen Koen G. , Wieners Claudia E. , Frank Jason E. , Dijkstra Henk A.
Published: July 2019

Abstract. Solar radiation management (SRM) has been proposed as a means to reduce
global warming in spite of high greenhouse-gas concentrations and to lower the chance
of warming-induced tipping points. However, SRM may cause economic damages and its
feasibility is still uncertain. To investigate the trade-off between these (economic) gains and
damages, we incorporate SRM into a stochastic dynamic integrated assessment model and
perform the first rigorous cost–benefit analysis of sulfate-based SRM under uncertainty,
treating warming-induced climate tipping and SRM failure as stochastic elements.
We find that within our model, SRM has the potential to greatly enhance future welfare and
merits being taken seriously as a policy option. However, if only SRM and no
CO2 abatement is used, global warming is not stabilised and will exceed 2 K.
Therefore, even if successful, SRM can not replace but only complement
CO2 abatement. The optimal policy combines CO2
abatement and modest SRM and succeeds in keeping global warming below 2 K.
Land Surface Model Representation of the Mutual Information
Context between Multi-Layer Soil Moisture and
Evapotranspiration
Authors: Qiu Jianxiu , Crow Wade T. , Dong Jianzhi , Nearing Grey S.
Published: July 2019

Abstract. Soil moisture (θ) impacts the climate system by regulating incoming energy into outgoing evapotranspiration (ET) and sensible heat flux components. Therefore, investigating the coupling strength between θ and ET is important for the study of land surface/atmosphere interactions. Here, we use in-situ AmeriFlux observations to evaluate θ/ET coupling strength estimates acquired from multiple land surface models (LSMs). For maximum robustness, coupling strength is represented using the sampled normalized mutual information (NMI) between θ estimates acquired at various vertical depths and surface flux represented by fraction of potential evapotranspiration (fPET, the ratio of ET to potential ET). Results indicate that LSMs are generally in agreement with AmeriFlux measurements in that surface soil moisture (θS) contains slightly more NMI with fPET than vertically integrated soil moisture (θV). Overall, LSMs adequately capture variations in NMI between fPET and θ estimates acquired at various vertical depths. However, one model – the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) – significantly overestimates the NMI between θ and ET and the relative contribution of θS to total ET. This bias appears attributable to differences in GLEAM's ET estimation scheme relative to the other two LSMs considered here (i.e., the Noah with Multi–parameterization option and the Catchment Land Surface Model). These results provide insight into improved LSM model structure and parameter optimization for land surface-atmosphere coupling analyses.
Algal growth and weathering crust structure drive variability in Greenland Ice Sheet ice albedo
Authors: Tedstone Andrew J. , Cook Joseph M. , Williamson Christopher J. , Hofer Stefan , McCutcheon Jenine , Irvine-Fynn Tristram , Gribbin Thomas , Tranter Martyn
Published: July 2019

Abstract. One of the primary controls upon the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) is albedo. There is a major difference in the albedo of snow-covered versus bare-ice surfaces, but observations also show that there is substantial spatio-temporal variability of up to ~ 0.4 in bare-ice albedo. Variability in bare ice albedo has been attributed to a number of processes including the accumulation of Light Absorbing Impurities (LAIs) and the changing physical properties of the near-surface ice. However, the combined impact of these processes upon albedo remains poorly constrained. Here we use field observations to show that among LAIs, pigmented glacier algae are ubiquitous and cause surface darkening both within and outside the south-west GrIS dark zone, but that other factors including modification of underlying ice properties by algal bloom presence, surface topography and weathering crust development are also important in determining patterns of daily albedo variability. We further use unmanned aerial system observations to examine the scale gap in albedo between ground versus remotely-sensed measurements made by Sentinel-2 (S-2) and MODIS. S-2 observations provide a highly conservative estimate of algal bloom presence because algal blooms occur in patches much smaller than the ground resolution of S-2 data. Nevertheless, the bare-ice albedo distribution at the scale of 20 × 20 m S-2 pixels is generally unimodal and unskewed. Conversely, bare ice surfaces have a left-skewed albedo distribution at MODIS MOD10A1 scales. Thus, when MOD10A1 observations are used as input to energy balance modelling then meltwater production can be under-estimated by ~ 2 %. Our study highlights that (1) the impact of physical ice surface processes is of similar importance to the direct darkening role of light-absorbing impurities upon ice albedo and (2) there is a spatial scale dependency in albedo measurement which reduces detection of real changes at coarser resolutions.