bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Detection of snow cover dynamics with a long range permanent TLS system at Hintereisferner (Austria) – possibilities and limitations
Authors: Voordendag Annelies , Goger Brigitta , Klug Christoph , Prinz Rainer , Rutzinger Martin , Kaser Georg
Published: March 2022

A permanent long-range terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) system is installed at Hintereisferner, Ötztal Alps, Austria to validate snow cover dynamics such as simulated by high-resolution atmospheric models.

Snow cover dynamics include several processes such as snow fall, compaction, metamorphism, snow redistribution by wind, avalanches and melt manifested in specific magnitudes and frequencies. To be able to quantify these surface changes, the smallest possible magnitude that can be measured by the TLS needs to be known.

An uncertainty analysis of the system has been conducted acquiring its limitations. It was known before that atmospheric conditions, the scanning geometry and mechanical properties contribute to the total uncertainty, but so far, these error sources and the total uncertainty had not been quantified.

It was assumed that the position of the TLS was stationary and thus, the georeferencing of the scan was automated with an unchanged transformation matrix. A case study of 29 hourly scans during 5 and 6 November 2020, with no surface changes due to external conditions, showed vertical differences between -0.62 m and +0.47 m relative to a selected reference scan. These deviations are related to ongoing minor movements of the scanner over the scope of day and result in errors of a few decimetres due to the long range acquisition.

The accuracy of the scans improves after manual georeferencing (RiSCAN PRO), resulting in smaller deviations between -0.15 and +0.04 m relative to the selected reference scan.

The total accuracy of the TLS system is ±10 cm (vertical direction) after manual georeferencing, but strongly depends on the range between target surface and TLS. This makes it possible to detect snow fall events, snow redistribution, melt, and avalanches with changes larger than one decimeter. Snow compaction and metamorphism are processes, which are over hourly to daily time steps too small to be detected by the TLS at Hintereisferner.

Over all, the determined accuracy of the TLS shows the suitability of the system setup for validating high-resolution atmospheric models that explicitly compute snow redistribution by wind and thus significantly will improve the treatment of snow cover dynamics in future glacier mass balance research.

 
Intertidal sediments exhibit different nutrient filtration capacity along the estuarine salinity gradient
Authors: Rios-Yunes Dunia , Tiano Justin C. , van Oevelen Dick , van Dalen Jeroen , Soetaert Karline
Published: March 2022

Estuarine systems filter nutrients and organic matter from riverine input and lower concentrations reaching the sea. Sediments within these ecosystems play a significant role in the mineralization and retention of nutrients and organic matter within the estuary. Such processes are influenced by abiotic (e.g. salinity, temperature, etc.) and biological (e.g. fluctuations in the benthic community) parameters which may contrast remarkably between intertidal or subtidal zones. Despite their relative importance, few studies have investigated the biogeochemistry of intertidal sediments with high spatiotemporal resolution. This study reports the results of monthly biogeochemical monitoring in intertidal muddy sediments along the salinity gradient of the Western Scheldt estuary (NL). Budgets of OM mineralization and nutrient retention were calculated for the fresh, brackish, and marine water zones. Temperature controlled sediment oxygen consumption rates and nutrient fluxes. Fresh and brackish sediments had a net influx of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) (-1.62 mmol DIN m-2 d-1 and -2.84 mmol DIN m-2 d-1, respectively), while the freshwater area had the only net influx of phosphate (-0.07 mmol m-2 d-1). Marine sediments showed net effluxes of DIN and DIP. Despite the net influx observed in freshwater sediments, geospatial analysis showed that their contribution to the total estuarine filtering capacity was minimal due to their small area. In contrast, brackish and marine regions had a more important contribution to the estuarine filter because of their larger surface area. Overall, sediments removed 11% (1,500 t N y-1) and 15% (~200 t P y-1) of the total nitrogen and phosphorus entering the estuary from riverine input. Our findings highlight the importance of using spatially-resolving remineralization budgets to improve models and nutrient cycling estimates in estuarine systems.
Revisiting the wave telescope for larger numbers of spacecraft
Authors: Schulz Leonard , Glassmeier Karl-Heinz , Plaschke Ferdinand , Motschmann Uwe
Published: March 2022

The strong growth of the space sector along with the use of smaller satellites, for example Cubesats, has fueled the rising implementation of satellite constellations. Not only in commercial spaceflight small satellite constellations are used frequently - there also have been ideas put forward for scientific missions using constellations exceeding the 4 spacecraft constellations previously used for in-situ multi-point measurements in space plasma physics (e.g. CLUSTER or MMS). Thus, there is a need to expand current analysis techniques of those multi-point measurements to more than 4 spacecraft and characterize the benefits of a larger number of satellites. Such an analysis technique is the wave telescope, e.g. introduced in Motschmann et al., 1996. The wave telescope allows to use e.g. magnetic field data from different points in space (the different spacecraft) to estimate a spatial fourier transform and with that is able to detect multiple waves. Thus, using a confined time interval, the frequency and wave vector of several different waves can be detected with high precision. Since its introduction, the wave telescope has been successfully applied for detection of waves in in-situ magnetic field data from Earth's magnetospheric environment. Using artificial data of magnetic plane waves in simulations, we revisit the limitations of the wave telescope for satellite numbers of 4 or less and explore the quality of detection for satellite configurations of 5 and more spacecraft. We present structured analysis of the spatial analysis limit from 1D upwards, named the nyquist wavenumber or wave vector (analogous to the nyquist frequency in the frequency domain). Additionally, we show that the wave telescope suffers from so called spatial blindness when the chosen satellite configuration is not moving and non-random phase plane waves at the same frequency are present. This blindness reduces the possible number of waves detected to no more than one.
Advances in rare event simulations using data-based estimation of committor functions
Authors: Lucente Dario , Rolland Joran , Herbert Corentin , Bouchet Freddy
Published: March 2022

Rare events, such as heat waves, floods, or hurricanes, play a crucial role in climate dynamics mainly due to the large impact they have. Predicting the occurrence of such events is thus a major challenge. 

In this talk, we introduce the relevant mathematical object for predicting a future event: the committor function is the probability that an event will occur, conditioned on the current state of the system. Computing this quantity from observations is an extremely difficult task since rare events have a very low probability of occurring and may not even have been observed in measurements made to date. Similarly, direct simulation of such events with comprehensive climate models comes at a prohibitive computational cost. Hence, rare event algorithms have been devised to simulate rare events efficiently, avoiding the computation of long periods of typical fluctuations.

The effectiveness of these algorithms strongly relies on the knowledge of a measure of how close the event of interest is to occur, called the “score function”. The main difficulty is that the optimal score function is the committor function which is exactly the quantity to be computed. Therefore, it is very natural to consider an iterative procedure where the data produced by the algorithm is used to improve the score function, which in turn improves the algorithm, and so on.

In this presentation, we propose a data-driven approach for computing the committor function, based on a Markov chain approximation of the dynamics of the system (the analogue method). We first illustrate this approach for a paradigmatic toy model of multistability for atmospheric dynamics with six variables (the Charney-Devore model). Secondly, we apply this methodology to data generated from a climate model, in order to study and predict the occurrence of extreme heat waves. In both cases, we show that it is possible to obtain fairly precise estimates of the committor function, even when few observations are available.

In the second part of the talk, we show the advantage of coupling the analogue Markov chain with a rare event algorithm. Indeed, the committor learned with the analogue Markov chain can be used as a score function performing better than user-defined score functions, as we show for the Charney-Devore model. 

This new approach is promising for studying rare events in complex dynamics: the rare events can be simulated with a minimal prior knowledge and the results are much more precise than those obtained with a user-designed score function.
Cascading effects of floods on interdependent infrastructure systems
Authors: Pregnolato Maria , Arrighi Chiara
Published: March 2022

Flood is among the most frequent and damaging natural hazards worldwide. Assessment of direct losses due to flooding is well-advanced, and include multiple models for the built environment (infrastructure, buildings). On the contrary, the knowledge and the literature on the assessment of indirect losses and cascading effects is less developed. Impacts on infrastructure are not necessarily due to the physical contact with floodwater but also result from a reduced performance of the service/functionality, which usually propagate outside the flooded area and beyond the impacted infrastructure (e.g. power disruptions resulting in communications failures). This work presents the risk analysis of two linear infrastructure systems, i.e. the water distribution system (WSS) and the road network system, for flooding. The evaluation of indirect flood impacts on the two networks is carried out for four probabilistic flood scenarios, obtained by a coupled 1D-quasi 2D hydraulic model. The impacts on the water distribution system and on the road network are simulated with a Pressure-Driven Demand model and a transport network disruption model respectively. Common impact metrics, similarities and differences of the methodological aspects for the two networks and risks are identified. The method is applied to the metropolitan area of Florence (Italy). The risk assessment is first carried out considering the two systems as separately affected; in a second analysis, the risk assessment includes the cascading effect and systemic interdependency, i.e. it evaluates the consequences on WSS due to the lack of accessibility, which prevents timely repairs and replacement at the WSS lifting stations. The results show that the risk to the WSS in terms of Population Equivalent not served (PE/year) can be reduced by the 71.5% and the 41.8% respectively, if timely repairs to the WSS stations are accomplished by 60 and 120 minutes. The study highlighted that systemic risk-informed planning can support timely interventions and enhance infrastructure resilience; however, it is recommended to conduct further studies which focuses on the complex dynamics of water runoff, water supply and traffic flows to support practical action planning.
Phobos Surface Science with the MMX Rover
Authors: Ulamec Stephan , Michel Patrick , Grott Matthias , Böttger Ute , Hübers Heinz-Willhelm , Cho Yuichiro , Rull Fernando , Murdoch Naomi , Vernazza Pierre , Biele Jens , Tardivel Simon , Miyamoto Hirdy
Published: March 2022

The Mars Moon eXploration (MMX) mission by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency, JAXA, which is going to explore the Martian Moons Phobos and Deimos and also return samples from Phobos back to Earth will also deliver a small (about 25 kg) Rover to the surface of Phobos.

The payload of this rover consists of a Raman spectrometer (RAX) to measure the mineralogical composition of the surface material, a stereo pair of cameras looking affront (NavCam, also used for navigation) to provide the properties of the investigated area, a radiometer (miniRAD) to measure the surface brightness temperature and determine thermal properties of both regolith and rocks, and two cameras looking at the wheel-surface interface (WheelCam) to investigate the properties and dynamics of the regolith. The cameras will, thus, serve for both, technological and scientific needs.
After the Rover has been delivered by the main spacecraft, it shall upright itself and operate for about 100 days on the surface of Phobos to investigate terrain and mineralogy along its path.
The measurements are going to provide ground truth by studying in-situ properties such as the physical properties and heterogeneity of the surface material.

MMX is planned to be launched in September 2024, the Rover delivery is currently planned for 2027.
The Rover is a contribution by the Centre National d’Etudes Spatiales (CNES) and the German Aerospace Center (DLR) with additional contributions from INTA (Spain) and JAXA.
Apply noise filters for better forecast performance in Machine Learning
Authors: Le Nhung , Männel Benjamin , Natras Randa , Sakic Pierre , Deng Zhiguo , Schuh ‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬ Harald
Published: March 2022

Abstract:

In Machine Learning (ML), one of the crucial tasks is understanding data characteristics to be able to extract exactly relevant information, while noise contained in data can cause misleading estimations and decrease the generalizability of ML-based prediction models. So far, only few previous studies have applied noise filtering techniques when building forecast models. Hence, their efficiency on ML-based forecasts has not yet been comprehensively demonstrated. Therefore, we aim to determine optimal noise filters to enhance the forecast performance of Total Electron Contents (TEC), crustal motion, and Earth’s polar motion. We investigate six noise filtering algorithms (Moving Mean, Moving Median, Lowess, Loess, and Savitzky Golay) on forecast models to select the best-suited filters. Five ML algorithms are applied to train forecast models, that are Support Vector Machine (SVM), Regression Trees, Linear Regression (LR), Ensembles of Trees, and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). The findings show that the Savitzky Golay algorithm is the most effective on the ML-based forecast models, followed by Loess and Gaussian filters, while Moving Mean is the least sensitive. Noise filters are more sensitive for forecast models based on SVM and LR than Ensembles of Trees and GPR. Applying the Savitzky Golay filter for SVM and LR optimal models can enhance the prediction accuracy up to 14.0 %, 16.1 % and 89.5 % corresponding to forecasting TEC, crustal motion, and Earth's polar motion, respectively; while that for Ensembles and GPR are only from approximate 3.0 to 27.0 %. Overall, using noise filters is one of the practical solutions to improve prediction performance. They can also be used to smoothen time series with variable characteristics and to generalize high-rate data.

Keywords:

Machine Learning, Noise filters, Savitzky Golay filter, TEC forecast, Crustal motion, Earth’s polar motion.
Fine structure of Auroral Kilometric Radiation observed by the Cluster Wideband Receiver
Authors: Taubenschuss Ulrich , Fischer Georg , Pisa David , Santolik Ondrej , Soucek Jan
Published: March 2022

Auroral kilometric radiation (AKR) is a strong terrestrial radio emission at frequencies below 1 MHz from source regions at high latitudes along auroral magnetic field lines. Non-thermal electron distributions (e.g. loss-cone or shell distribution) provide the free energy that is converted into electromagnetic energy via the cyclotron maser instability. Improved instrumentation installed on modern spacecraft enabled observations of spectral fine structures in AKR which is composed of discrete emissions seen at narrow frequency bandwidths (<1 kHz) and short time scales below 1 second. We will present data from the Cluster mission, where each of the four satellites is equipped with a Wideband Receiver (WBD). The extensive Cluster-WBD dataset is mostly unexplored to date, despite that a few case studies already analyzed specific AKR fine structures like striations, narrowband emissions drifting up and down in frequency or so-called V- or U-events. We will provide an overview of the large variety of AKR fine structures from Cluster-WBD and introduce a classification scheme.
Submarine glacial landscapes of the Western Estonian Shelf and implications for ice-flow reconstruction
Authors: Karpin Vladimir , Heinsalu Atko , Virtasalo Joonas
Published: March 2022

Geomorphological studies of the bottom of the Baltic Sea are still scarce and little is directly known about glacial bedforms and the palaeo-ice flow dynamics in the area. However, recently collected high resolution multibeam bathymetric data from the Western Estonian territorial waters and EEZ reveal direct geomorphological evidence of glacial bedforms, such as iceberg scours (ploughmarks) and drumlins, enabling the reconstruction of ice-flow patterns on the Western Estonian shelf.

High-resolution multibeam data reveal widespread linear and curved depressions, interpreted as iceberg scours produced by ploughing and grounding icebergs during and soon after the final ice retreat from the area, approximately around 13.2 to 12.3 kyr BP. We recognize two populations of scours (A and B), formed either on top of the coarse-grained glacial deposits or on top of the superimposed glaciolacustrine and post-glacial sediments exposed on the seafloor. The scours of both populations are on average 780 m long, 54 m wide and 1.6 m deep. The Populations have different average orientations, NE-SW for Population A, and ENE-WSW for Population B.

We also report a well-preserved geomorphological record of streamlined bedforms (mostly drumlins). We identify two diverging flow sets, partially continuing onshore, revealing ice sheet behaviour in the area before the time of Palivere stadial (13.2 kyr BP). The observed ice-flow directions permit refining earlier reconstructions and conclude that there were no significant ice-margin standstills in the area.
Landslide susceptibility assessment including a set of novel explanatory variables: soil sealing, and multi-criteria geological parameterization.
Authors: Nocentini Nicola , Luti Tania , Rosi Ascanio , Segoni Samuele
Published: March 2022

Landslide susceptibility maps (LSMs) depict the probability of occurrence of a given type of landslide in a given area, based on the spatial distribution of a set of selected predisposing factors. Therefore, the susceptibility assessment is very sensitive to the parameters chosen and the identification of new parameters to be used as input data is a promising field of research in susceptibility studies as it may contribute to enhance the results.

In this work the machine learning algorithm called Random Forest (RF) has been applied, employing, in addition to the most common predisposing factors, a set of newly proposed parameters, with the aim of verifying their applicability in the landslide susceptibility analysis. The study area, 3100 km2 wide, contains the provinces of Lucca, Prato and Pistoia, in northern Tuscany (Italy).

The first innovative parameter introduced is the soil sealing map, derived from the national map updated yearly by ISPRA (Italian Institute for Environmental Protection and Research). Soil sealing represents the degree of anthropization of the soil, which can radically alter the geotechnical equilibrium or the hydrological system of hillslopes. This may be directly or indirectly linked to an increased landslides hazard.

In addition, multi-parametric geological information has been included. Usually, LSMs exploit only the lithological information provided by geological maps, neglecting potentially relevant geological information (e.g. degree of weathering or tectonic stress history). We created a set of geologically-based explanatory variables by reclassifying a high resolution geological map (where 194 lithostratigraphic units were mapped at the 1:10,000 scale) using five different approaches: lithological, genetic, paleo-environmental, structural and chronological.

The model was run twice, with and without these innovative parameters, and the two resulting LSMs were compared with three approaches: (1) the area under receiver-operator characteristic curve (AUC) highlighted that the advanced parameterization increases the effectiveness of the model; (2) the Out-of-Bag Error (OOBE). OOBE was used to assess the relative importance of each predisposing factors, and the new parameters showed high predictive power; (3) the resulting maps were compared, and the main differences could be explained by local complex geological settings, which are better accounted for using the multi-criteria geological parameterization.
Hydro-agro-economic Optimization of Water and Land Management in the Hetao Irrigation District, China
Authors: Cao Zhaodan , Zhu Tingju
Published: March 2022

Water shortage and soil salinization are main limiting factors in agricultural production in arid and semi-arid regions worldwide. Located in western Inner Mongolia of China, the Hetao Irrigation District (HID) is the largest gravity-fed irrigation district in Asia and one of the top three largest irrigation districts in China. Irrigation water overuse and high level of soil salinity are the main challenges that curb agricultural productivity, adversely affect farmers’ revenues, and threaten long-term sustainability of irrigated farming in the HID. Nevertheless, irrigation water allocation, salt leaching and accumulation, crop productivity and farming decisions are intrinsically connected and thus necessitate taking a holistic approach to investigate into the interactions among all those factors and devising appropriate technological, management and policy interventions. Towards this goal, an integrated hydro-agro--economic optimization model was developed to optimize water allocation among sub-irrigation districts, across stable and cash crops, and in the four irrigation events of a year that are unique for the HID. The model optimizes net revenue of the HID considering water and salt balance, the response of crops to salinity and water stress, land availability, and existing irrigation management practices that have been proved effective. The Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) approach is used to calibrate the model such that it can reproduce base year observations of crop acreage, water uses and production costs and benefits, making the model suitable for evaluating alternative management and policy scenarios. Sensitivity analysis were conducted for initial groundwater table, initial soil salinity level and leaching coefficient, and the results were moderately sensitive to initial soil salinity and marginally sensitive to groundwater table and leaching coefficient values. Scenario analyses were conducted to analyze the effects of irrigation water supply, winter irrigation (non-growing period) water application, irrigation efficiency and crop commodity market prices. We found that water supply reduction increases land fallow and reduces net revenue. Winter irrigation can store soil moisture to increase summer crop planting areas and increase salt-leaching to lower crop salinity stress. However, irrigation water use efficiency improvement can cause unintended negative consequences, such as exacerbated soil salinization. Higher crop commodity market price increases planting areas and water allocation of the crop but reduce areas and water uses of other crops, leading to a “crowding-out” effects. These results and modeling exercises provide a holistic perspective and useful insights for future water, land and salinity management, irrigation infrastructure investment, and market risk management in the HID.
Hourly resolution measurement of gaseous oxidized mercury using a membrane-coupled sampling system 
Authors: Wu Qingru , Tang Yi , Wang Shuxiao , Li Guoliang , Han Deming , Liu Kaiyun , Li Zhijian
Published: March 2022

Temporal variation trend of gaseous oxidized mercury (Hg2+) in air is significant to understand global mercury cycling and is urgent to evaluate the effectiveness of the Minamata Convention on Mercury. However, Hg2+ monitoring is still one of the largest challenges in atmospheric mercury research field, where existing methods cannot simultaneously satisfy the measurement requirements of both accuracy and time precision. Here, we developed a hourly resolution gaseous oxidized mercury sampling system (HGOMS) which coupled a cation exchange membrane (CEM)-based sampling system with the Tekran 2537/1130/1135 equipment. The two stage CEM coupled in our system can capture almost all Hg2+ under high HgBr2 exposure (1.45±0.05 ng m-3) in laboratory experiment. During the field observation, the breakthrough percentage of the first stage is approximately 10% and the time resolution of Hg2+ concentration measurement is 2 h. The 3-week measurement using HGOMS showed an hour-average Hg2+ concentration of 0.46±0.36 ng m-3, which is approximately 23 times higher than the measurement using KCl-coated denuder at urban Beijing. In addition, enhanced Hg2+ concentrations was observed during the daytime with diurnal amplitude of 0.37 ng m-3, indicating the strong photochemical production of Hg2+. Given the current prevalent low bias of Hg2+ in observation and model simulation, our study indicates the urgency to re-evaluate global Hg2+ measurement and air mercury reaction mechanism in the atmospheric mercury transport model.  
Improving the Empirical Solar Wind Forecast (ESWF) model
Authors: Milosic Daniel , Temmer Manuela , Heinemann Stephan , Podladchikova Tatiana , Veronig Astrid , Vršnak Bojan
Published: March 2022

The empirical solar wind forecast (ESWF) model is an ESA service to forecast the solar wind speed at Earth with 4 days lead time. The model uses a simple empirical relation between the area of coronal holes (CHs) as measured in meridional slices in EUV at the Sun and the in-situ measured solar wind speed at 1 AU (Vršnak, Temmer, Veronig, 2007). The relation has the drawback that Gaussian type speed profiles are produced as the CH rotates in and out of the meridional slice. With adaptations to the ESWF algorithm we aim to improve the precision of the ESWF speed profile by implementing compression and rarefaction effects occurring between SW streams of different velocities in the interplanetary space. By considering the propagation times for plasma parcels between the Sun and Earth and their interactions, we achieve the asymmetrical shape of the speed profile that is characteristic of high-speed streams (HSS). We present a statistical analysis for the period 2012 - 2019 showing that our adaptions improve the ability to predict HSS speed profiles as well as smaller structures with higher precision.
Combining groundwater numerical modelling and social sciences to assess water access in developing countries rural environments
Authors: Cid Escobar Daniela , Folch Albert , Ferrer Nuria , Sanchez-Vila Xavier
Published: March 2022

Shallow groundwater is usually more accessible than surface water in remote and rural areas due to the infrastructure cost to collect and allocate surface water on dispersed communities. However, the absence of a proper hydrogeological characterization of the aquifer system added to the lack of groundwater infrastructure and maintenance, technical capacity, and governance has not allowed the development of sustainable use of local groundwater resources in different territories worldwide.

We propose an interdisciplinary approach to determine the risk of a household experiencing water shortage due to depletion of the aquifer, degradation of the water quality, not access to the water point, or sustainable functionality. Three main parameters were defined: Closeness (determined by geographical parameters and easily computed using GIS), Availability (determined by hydrogeological parameters that can be assessed from a groundwater model), and Sustainability (differentiating between software functionality and hardware functionality (Bonsor, MacDonald, Casey, Carter, & Wilson, 2018), the former analyzed through Multiple Factor Analysis. Each of these three factors range between 0 and 1, and their product provides an index that can be used to map the risk of individual households.

An application case in Kwale County, southeast coast of Kenya, is presented, where community handpumps are the main water supply system. The novelty of the index relies on the combination of groundwater model outputs with household data, which allows the generation of time-dependent risk indexes that can be calculated for several scenarios depending on the data available. In this case, we present three scenarios, one involving the potential malfunctioning of a percentage of the existing handpumps, and two other ones dealing with extreme climate scenarios, all of them designed to test the resilience and applicability of the proposed index and their applicability for decision making.

Acknowledgements: This work was funded by the Centre of Cooperation for Development of the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya. We want to thank UPGRO and Gro For Good projects for their support and collaboration in acquiring available data.

References: Bonsor, H., MacDonald, A., Casey, V., Carter, R., & Wilson, P. (2018). The need for a standard approach to assessing the functionality of rural community water supplies. Hydrogeology Journal, 26(2), 367–370. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-017-1711-0
The control of the superimposition effect of the original tectonic framework in different tectonic evolution stages on the development and transformation of buried hills- Taking Yidong Buried Hill in Jiyang Depression as an Example
Authors: Miao Yuanzi , Wu Zhiping , Zhang Meng
Published: March 2022

Abstract: The superimposition relationship of the multi-stage tectonic evolution of the Mesozoic and Cenozoic controls the development process and formation mechanism of buried hills. The formation of Yidong buried hill includes two stages: the hill-forming period and the burial period. The hill-forming period was mainly controlled by three groups of faults in the NW-, NE- and NEE-striking, and the burial period was mainly controlled by the regional geological background of the NNW-SSE extension since the Cenozoic. According to the method of equilibrium profile and active fault analysis, the matching relationship between different buried hills in Yidong area is determined, and then the buried hills in Yidong area are divided into four categories: (1) Yigu 271 buried hill, its formation went through the NW-striking fault-controlled hill in the Mesozoic hill-forming period, the NE-striking fault-controlled hill in the Paleogene hill-forming period, and the Neogene-Quaternary buried period. (2) Yigu 103 buried hill, its formation was controlled by NW-striking faults in the Mesozoic hill-forming period, NE-striking faults in the Kongdian Formation- the third member of Shahejie Formation hill-forming period, and NW-striking and NE-striking faults in the first member of Shahejie Formation-Dongying Formation period. Controlled together into hills, and the Neogene-Quaternary buried period. (3) Yigu 20 buried hill, its formation was controlled by NW-striking faults in the Mesozoic hill-forming period, the Kongdian Formation-Essential Formation NW-striking and NE-striking faults in the hill-forming period jointly controlled the hills, and the third member of Shahejie Formation-Dongying Formation was NE-striking in the hill period The fault is controlled into a hill, and the Neogene-Quaternary buried period. (4) Shaogu 3 buried hill, it was formed in the Paleogene hill-forming period, NE-striking and NEE-striking faults jointly controlled the hill, and the Neogene-Quaternary buried period. The research on the development and superimposition process of Yidong buried hill provides important support for the study of tectonic evolution in Yidong area.
Impact of the ocean-atmosphere coupling on high-resolution future projections for the Mediterranean Sea and surrounding climate from the Med-CORDEX ensemble
Authors: Soto-Navarro Javier , Jordà Gabriel , Somot Samuel , Sevault Florence
Published: March 2022

Med-CORDEX is an international initiative that aims at developing fully coupled high resolution Regional Climate System Models (RCSMs) for the Mediterranean basin.  After 11 years of work an ensemble of more than 25 multi-model and multi–scenario climatic simulations is now available. In this study, we analyze the impact of the high-resolution representation of the Mediterranean Sea and of the interaction between ocean and atmosphere, explicitly resolved in the Med-CORDEX simulations, in the projected evolution of the most relevant climatic variables for the Mediterranean basin and the adjacent regions during the 21st century. The final goal is to quantify up to what extent including the explicit and high-resolution representation of the ocean-atmosphere coupling is relevant for regional climate projections. The preliminary results show that, in general, higher resolution coupled simulations project a lower increase in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) than lower resolution runs. This translates in a smaller input of heat and humidity to the atmosphere that, in turn, affect the cloud cover and precipitation over the basin and the adjacent continental areas. These changes are the result of a better representation of the Mediterranean Sea functioning in the Med-CORDEX RCSMs. In particular, they resolve better the mesoscale processes of the basin, which are partly responsible of the heat transport from the surface to deeper layers, and the ocean-atmosphere feedback that regulates the heat exchange.
Information theory approach for enhancing time series analysis and predictability of soil environments
Authors: Corpaci Luiza Cristina , Raubitzek Sebastian , Mallinger Kevin
Published: March 2022

Soil environments are naturally governed by a multitude of interdependent chemical, biological, and physical processes that define their macro-state. In the context of farming these features are further complemented and affected by anthropogenic activities (ploughing, fertilizing, use of pesticides, etc.) that systematically aim to change soil and plant environments to enhance yield, but often with unforeseen detrimental effects (biodiversity loss, erosion, etc.). Assessing strategies for sustainable environmental management is therefore a highly challenging task that is often accompanied by incomplete knowledge of systemic feedback mechanisms and a lack of continuous and reliable data. 

To address this issue, we investigate the use of complexity metrics from information theory to gain insights about underlying patterns of multivariate soil systems and their potential implications for time series analysis. Here we apply existing methods for the processing and analysis of similar systems, we verify current theories about the dynamics and mechanisms of ecological processes in time and study innate interactions between separate components. Thereby, we will use available agricultural datasets that display a wide range of soil properties and explore several notions of complexity approaches, such as entropy measures (e.g., Permutation entropy, transfer entropy, Shannon entropy) and the Hurst exponent. Characteristic features will be highlighted that can be used to enhance time series prediction accuracy and systemic soil functions understanding.
How many inundations are detectable in Europe using Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2?
Authors: Tarpanelli Angelica , Camici Stefania , Mondini Alessandro
Published: March 2022

Inundation is one of the major natural hazards in Europe. After a number of dramatic floods, the Member States agreed to draw up guidelines to develop a flood risk assessment, flood hazard and risk maps and flood risk management plans (Directive 2007/60/EC) with the aim to reduce the adverse consequences on the human health and the environment. Flood hazard and risk evaluation is not straightforward and it is traditionally based on hydro-monitoring systems  not adequately distributed in the territory or on hydrodynamic models as a tool for delineating flooded areas. In the last decades, the satellite sensors launched for Earth Observation represent a valid support for early warning systems and for mitigating the impact of future flooding. The ESA Earth Observation Program includes a series of satellites, Sentinels, for the operative observation of the natural phenomena and, in particular, Sentinel-1 (SAR) and Sentinel-2 (optical) are more suitable for mapping flooded areas. The two instruments assurance an almost global coverage for free. However, the spatial resolution (10 – 20 m) and the revisit time (5 – 6 days) of the sensors do not always guarantee a full mapping of inundated territories.

Here, we proposed a study to evaluate the effectiveness of the Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2 in the mapping of floods in Europe, where the flood events have duration ranging from some hours to a few days. To reach the target, we analyzed ten years of river discharge data over almost 2000 sites in Europe and we simulated flood riverine inundations selecting flood events over three established thresholds (97th, 99th and 99.5th percentile). Based on the revisit time of both the satellites constellations and the cloud coverage for the optical sensors, we derived the percentage of potential inundation events detectable from Sentinel-1 and Sentinel-2. Assuming the configuration of a constellation of two satellites for each mission and considering the ascending and descending orbit, we find that on average the 58 % of flood events were potentially observable by Sentinel-1 and only the 28 % by Sentinel-2.

 

 
Monitoring and predictions of Marine Heatwave events in the North East Pacific from ocean reanalyses and seasonal forecasts
Authors: de Boisseson Eric , Balmaseda Magdalena , Mayer Michael , Zuo Hao
Published: March 2022

A marine heatwave (MHW) is defined as a prolonged period (usually 5 days or more) of sea-surface temperature (SST) above the 90th climatological percentile, which is potentially devastating for marine ecosystems and economy. The available ocean information by Copernicus Marine (CMEMS) and Climate (C3S) Services allows the real-time detection and seasonal prediction of MHW. Reported 2020 MHW events in the North East Pacific happen in the context of increased frequency of long heatwaves. A positive feedback loop by which atmospheric conditions impact the upper ocean stratification making the ocean mixed layer more responsive to anomalous surface fluxes has been identified in reanalyses. The increased stratification at the base of the mixed layer seen since 2017 coincides with the resurgence of MHWs from 2018 onwards. Reliable predictions of developing MHW conditions could help advance planning and preparedness for such extreme variability events in the ocean. Seasonal forecasts showed skill in predicting the 2020 events at seasonal timescales, especially once the ocean was preconditioned after the first MHW of that year. The first order assessment of the forecast skill for MHW predictions presented here showed encouraging results, but for such information to be actionable in the future there is need to gain more confidence on the quality of the seasonal forecast information. Statistical forecast reliability quantification and further process understanding will be the subject of a follow-up study.
Resources for teachers on “Climate Change and Land” and research on eco-anxiety
Authors: Klein Simon , Pichon Clémence , Tricoire Mathilde , Lescarmontier Lydie , Barve Apurva , Wilgenbus David , Sadadou Djian , Guilyardi Eric
Published: March 2022

The essential role of education in addressing the causes and consequences of anthropogenic climate change is increasingly being recognised at an international level. The Office for Climate Education (OCE) develops educational resources and proposes professional development opportunities to support teachers, worldwide, to mainstream climate change education.

Drawing upon the IPCC Special Report on the Climate Change and Land, the OCE has produced a set of educational resources that cover the scientific and societal dimensions, at local and global levels, while developing students’ reasoning abilities and guiding them to take action (mitigation and/or adaptation) in their schools or communities. These resources include:

Ready-to-use teacher handbook that (i) target students from the last years of primary school to the end of lower-secondary school (aged 9 to 15), (ii) include scientific and pedagogical overviews, lesson plans, activities and worksheets, (iii) are interdisciplinary, covering topics in the natural sciences, social sciences, arts and physical education, (iv) promote active pedagogies: inquiry-based science education, role-play, debate, project-based learning, (v) followed by 7 examples of inspiring projects of actions to either mitigate or adapt to climate change impacts, or take part of the science or disseminate climate change knowledge.

A specific attention is drawn to tackle eco-anxiety with the development of a class activity focused on emotions.

A Summary for teachers of the IPCC Special Report, presented together with a selection of related activities and exercises that can be implemented in the classroom.

A set of 10 videos where experts speak about a specific issue related to the link between land and climate change.

A set of 6 multimedia activities offering students the possibility of working interactively in different topics related to climate change.

An important concern for climate change education is to assess the impact of the required pedagogy for transforming students’ behaviour to face climate challenges. Therefore, the OCE is conducting an evaluation research project on activities around the emotions related to climate change.
The importance of estuary shape in evaluating the flood risk in estuaries
Authors: Barada Mirko , Robins Peter , Lewis Matthew , Skov Martin
Published: March 2022

Floods are a constant threat to communities within and around estuaries worldwide. This is because several drivers may occur there at the same time which leads to the compound flooding (e.g. high river discharge + storm surge). In this study LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model is applied to examine the efficiency of different management strategies on flooding in the Dyfi Estuary, in Mid Wales. Five different bathymetries, including the current one, were developed in ArcGIS and included in the analysis: a) “hold the line”, b) “remove the line”, c) “advance the line”, d) “retreat the line”, e) “breach in the line”. Modified November 2020 compound flood event boundary conditions were forced from the coast and from the Dyfi bridge. Model results shown, among other things, that nature-based solutions in the lower estuary, represented by salt marshes and floodplain restoration measures, have a great potential in reducing water elevations across the estuary, unlike the advance the line scenario or the current bathymetry.

Additionally, results obtained from different management scenarios are analyzed and compared against results from the selected design storm events. These events were based on modifying parameters such as 1) relative timing of flood peaks, 2) storm duration and 3) climate change sensitivity (SLR and increase in discharge) which provided set of different compound flood events that were forced by LISFLOOD, in combination with the current estuary shape, unlike when modelling different management scenarios. This approach enabled us to perform an effective comparative analysis which addressed the key hypothesis of the research stating that changes in estuary shape will have bigger effect on flooding than changes in flood event itself. Indeed, it is shown that variability in water elevations caused by different management scenarios is bigger compared to variability caused by changing the boundary conditions only, although not always leading to higher water elevations along the estuary.
Evaluation of co-creation processes in climate services  -  Development of a formative evaluation scheme
Authors: Keup-Thiel Elke , Bathiany Sebastian , Dressel Markus , El Zohbi Juliane , Rechid Diana , Schuck-Zöller Susanne , Suhari Mirko , Timm Esther
Published: March 2022

 

Climate change increasingly affects all parts of society. Different economic sectors such as the agricultural sector have to adapt to climate change. More and more climate services are being developed in order to support this adaptation to climate change with accurate and suitable products. Good practises for the design of climate services include transdisciplinary approaches and co-creation of climate service products. The development of usable and useful climate service products and effective adaptation measures requires constant interactions between climate service providers and users of the products. To assess the effectiveness of these co-creation endeavours, continuous evaluation is crucial. At present, output and outcome assessments are conducted occasionally in this research field. However, these summative evaluations that are preformed ex-post do not help to adjust the ongoing process of co-creation. Therefore, the focus of the presented work is on formative evaluation of the co-creative development of science-based climate service products. A formative evaluation is done during the run-time of a project with the intention to reflect and readjust it. For this purpose, we analysed in detail the process of co-creation of climate service products in the knowledge transfer project ADAPTER (ADAPT tERrestrial systems, https://adapter-projekt.org/) and combine this analysis with a systematic literature review. In ADAPTER, simulation-based climate service products are developed together with key partners and practitioners from the agricultural sector, with the aim of supporting decision making in the context of climate change adaptation.

As a first step, main characteristics of the product development process were identified empirically and six sub-processes of product development were determined. Secondly , questions for a formative evaluation were assigned to the different steps and sub-processes. Thirdly, a literature review including fields other than climate services delivered additional qualitative aspects. As a result, a scheme of quality criteria and related assessment questions for the different sub-processes in climate service development was created, based on both empirical and theoretical work. Subsequently, this scheme needs validation and testing. The resulting formative evaluation scheme will be particularly helpful to reflect on and to improve the co-creation processes in climate services and beyond.

 