bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Can Belgium Borrow Itself out of the Budget Deficit?
Authors: Fratianni Michele
Published: September 2022

The deficit of the general government averaged 1.5 percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the 1960s, 5.0 percent in the 1970’s, and 11.9 percent in the 1981-84 period. This growth occurred depite a sharp rise in the average tax burden, as tax revenues went from 31.7 percent of GDP in the 1960s to 41.3 percent in the 1970s and 46.3 percent in the 1981-84 period. The engine of the budget deficit has been and continues to be the rise in expenditures.

This note raises two questions. First, is the existing structure of expenditures, taxation, growth of output, and real interest rate consistent with a stable (that is, finite) ratio of government debt to GDP. The answer is no. The second question asks what economic conditions will have to emerge to stabilize the bond-to-income ratio of the nation. There is no unique answer to this question; nonetheless, I offer one solution whose «realism» may be beyond the scope of what political economy can yield at the moment.
Le modèle de reproduction et d’accumulation d’A. Smith
Authors: Rosier Michel
Published: September 2022

INTRODUCTION

Selon l’interprétation de la Richesse des nations restée dominante jusqu’à la seconde guerre mondiale, les questions de l’allocation des ressources, de la détermination des prix et de la répartition constituaient le « noyau dur » de cet ouvrage. A cette époque, H. Myint en prit le contrepied: « The method of regarding the problem of allocating ressources as the main concern of the classical economists fails to provide such a central unifying principle » (Myint, [1946], p. 120). Il proposa une autre grille de lecture ayant pour axe les problèmes ressortissant au développement et à la croissance. C’est dans cette perspective que s’inscriront par la suite certains travaux tentant de rendre compte de la cohérence et de la pertinence des thèses d’A. Smith dans le cadre de modèles macroéconomiques de croissance (Lowe, [1954 et 1975]; Thweatt, [1957]; Adelman, [1962]; Barkaï, [1969]; O’Brien, [1975]; Eltis, [1975]). Ces travaux ont en commun de faire abstraction de toute différenciation sectorielle et de prêter une attention toute particulière au couple smithien division du travail-extension du marché et, par là, d’attribuer une place primordiale à la question des rendements d’échelle. Schématiquement, A. Smith, ayant supposé des rendements d’échelle croissants, aurait eu une conception cumulative de la croissance, représentable graphiquement par une spirale.
Echanges internationaux et straégies collusives
Authors: Jacquemin Alexis
Published: September 2022

De nombreux travaux récents ont jeté un doute sur la capacité des modèles traditionnels de fournir une explication totalement satisfaisante des échanges internationaux. Le recours accru aux analyses d'Economie Industrielle, de concurrence imparfaite et de théorie des jeux fournit un cadre complémentaire particulièrement utile.

C'est dans ce contexte que le présent article propose quelques illustrations simples des nouvelles recherches. La première section met en lumière plusieurs aspects des relations stratégies internationales, y compris le rôle joué par les acteurs publics. La deuxième section illustre le rôle des stratégies collusives, tant privées que publiques dans les échanges internationaux.
Technological flexibility, financial fragility and the recent revival of Schumpeterian entrepreneurship
Authors: Vercelli Alessandro
Published: September 2022

The technological stagnation of large bureaucratic organizations in the seventies led to a revival of “Schumpeterian” entrepreneurship. This is explained as a consequence of the search for flexibility induced by an increase of structural uncertainty. The role of credit in promoting technological flexibility is also considered. Its basic function today is seen to consist not so much in a rapid redistribution of productive resources, as Schumpeter maintained, but rather in a proper reallocation of technological risk.
Econométrie de l'investissement : Conférence inaugurale
Authors: Malinvaud Edmond
Published: September 2022

Le titre de ce colloque, « Econométrie de l’investissement », définit clairement le sujet que nous allons examiner durant ces deux jours. Mon rôle, à l’ouverture de nos travaux, ne consiste donc pas à circonscrire ce sujet, mais plutôt à expliciter certaines réflexions que d’autres parmi vous comme moi font certainement. Celles-ci concernent d’abord l’importance de l’économétrie de l’investissement, mais aussi sa dificulté, ensuite les principes de l’approche qu’elle met en œuvre, enfin le dilemme qu’elle pose à l’entretien de rapports de travail efficaces entre macroéconomistes et économètres. Je traiterai successivement de ces trois points.

Les pays d’Europe occidentale, parmi d’autres, sont confrontés à de redoutables problèmes à moyen terme. Leur système productif a connu une évolution qui a conduit à un déséquilibre entre les capacités de production des entreprises et les ressources en main d’œuvre. Bien que certains signes d’une amélioration se soient manifestés par endroit, la situation y est encore fragile et apparaît en général comme gravement détéiorée. Les entreprises n’ont pas assez développé leurs capacités de production pour les produits fortement demandés à l’échelle mondiale. Quand elles ont investi, elles l’ont fait pour réduire leurs besoins en main d’œuvre.
Tobin’s Q, non-constant returns to scale, and imperfectly competitive product markets
Authors: Chirinko Robert S. , Fazzari Steven M.
Published: September 2022

This study explores the impact of non-constant returns to scale and imperfectly competitive product markets on the empirical performance of the q-model of investment. We present an econometric specification linking the unobserved shadow price of capital to financial market data when returns-to-scale are not necessarily constant and product markets are not necessarily competitive. Furthermore, unlike most Q-studies, we work within a discrete-time framework, and give explicit attention to the relations between inventories, sales, and production. Our new specification allows us to recover parameters characterizing returns-to-scale, product market, and adjustment cost elasticities. Estimates are reported for 12 mature industries in the United States drawn from VALUELINE.
Investment behaviour in Europe : a comparative analysis
Authors: Catinut Michel , Cawley Richard , Ilzkovitz Fabienne , Italianer Alexander , Mors Matthias
Published: September 2022

The focus of this article is the comparison of the relative influence of different determinants of investment (demand, the relative price of capital and labour, and profit) for five large European countries and the United States. The investment equations are derived from production functions, either putty-putty or putty-clay, in the context of a disequilibrium model. The comparison of annual and quarterly estimates (after aggregation in a equivalent annual model) improves the evaluation of the precision of the parameter estimates.

In all these countries, in accordance with the accelerator effect, demand is the dominant influence in the short term, fading away in the medium term. In contrast, profit is not a predominant influence except in the medium term. Its role thus seems to result from the effect of expectations on investment profitability rather than from short run self-financing constraints. With respect to factor substitution, the analysis confirms that this is only weakly linked to changes in the relative price of capital and labour.
Investment demand at the firm level : The case of Spain
Authors: Mato Gonzalo
Published: September 2022

In this paper we estimate an investment demand function derived from a standard adjustment costs framework. We also suppose that the speed of adjustment depends on the capacity of the firms to finance their investment projects with their own generated resources. The model is estimated for a sample of 140 firms and 4 years (1978-81).

Using the consistent within-groups estimator, the main results are : 1) expected output appears as the most important determinant of investment ; 2) profits affect investment in the long-run only through the adjustment cost channel ; 3) relative factor prices are not significant, reflecting a very slow substitution between labour and capital in spanish industry.
La création d'un marché à terme peut-elle êe déabilisante? L'effet de la qualité des arbitrages et du mode de formation des anticipations
Authors: Artus Patrick
Published: September 2022

La littérature théorique existante montre que, si les anticipations des spéculateurs sont rationnelles, la création d’un marché à terme a une influence stabilisante sur le prix au comptant.

On peut cependant se demander si certaines caractéristiques du comportement des opérateurs sur les marchés (utilisation de techniques automatiques pour décider du niveau des positions, prise en compte du cours à terme affiché pour former les anticipations, non-rationalité des anticipations, imperfection des arbitrages), ne peuvent pas entraîner au contraire une déstabilisation des cours en cas d'une telle création.

On se propose ici d’examiner, dans le cadre d’un modèle théorique simple, les conséquences de tels comportements non rationnels, ainsi que la possibilité qu’ils soient durables si les intervenants apprennent progressivement le fonctionnement effectif du marché.
Un modèle estimé de demande de capital en déséquilibre dans l’industrie français
Authors: Poret Pierre
Published: September 2022

Cet article présente une estimation économétrique de 1961 à 1986 des probabilités que l’industrie française se soit trouvée respectivement en régime keynesien et en régime de profit. Un modèle de demande de capital en déséquilibre a été testé par les moindres carrés non linéaires, en supposant que les probabilités d’apparition des régimes suivaient une loi logistique. La contrainte keynesienne de demande est mesurée par les anticipations de demande tirées des enquêtes de conjoncture. De 1975 à 1982, l’investissement industriel aurait été limité principalement par l’insuffisance des profits. De 1983 à 1986, en moyenne, l’équilibre des contraintes de demande et de profit serait rétabli.
Théorie monétaire de J.M. Keynes : L’hypothèse de séparabilité de la demande de monnaie
Authors: Dangel Cécile
Published: September 2022

La fonction de demande de monnaie s’écrit dans la Théorie Genérale sous la forme de deux composantes séparées, chacune évoluant sous l’effet d’une variable distincte. Cet article tente de montrer que cette forme séparée de la demande de monnaie est présente dans des écrits autres que la Théorie Générale et correspond par exemple à la distinction établie par Keynes dans le Traité sur la Monnaie entre circulation industrielle et circulation financière. Par ailleurs Keynes marque une hésitation,y compris dans la Théorie Générale, entre une détermination simultanée et séquentielle des variables essentielles de son modèle. Or l’hypothèse d’une demande de monnaie séparée semble nécessaire dans une approche séquentielle. Enfin, cet article suggère d’interpréter cette hypothèse comme la traduction au niveau monétaire de la distinction opérée dans la Théorie Générale entre activité d’entreprise et activité de spéculation.
Q Investment Models, Factor Complementarity and Monopolistic Competition
Authors: Licandro Omar
Published: September 2022

The observed fact that firms invest even if capacities are not fully employed does not fit into most standard formalizations of optimal firm behaviour. In this paper, the q investment approach is adapted to an imperfect competitive economy where the representative firm is assumed to face demand uncertainty. Nominal rigidities and short-run factor complementarity are imposed as sufficient conditions to allow for the coexistence of investment and excess capacity. Since capacities are underemployed, marginal q is shown to diverge from average q. Finally, excess capacity subsists at steady state being more than a short-run phenomena.
The Value of Living
Authors: Broome John
Published: September 2022

Many practical decisions, in medicine and elsewhere, alter the lengths of people’s lives; many affect the number of people who are born; and many do both. Decision makers need to attach a value to changes of these sorts. In the past the value of prolonging life and the value of changes in population have generally been treated separately. This paper explains the need for an integrated treatment: a theory of the value of living. In one sense, prolonging a life and bringing into existence an extra person are alternative ways of doing the same thing: both bring it about that a period of life is lived that otherwise would not have been lived. But there is also a vital difference: in one case the extra period of life comes to someone who exists already; in the other it comes to a new person. The paper discusses a number of principles that might be used in developing an integrated theory of the value of living.
From the “Value of Life” to the Economics and Ethics of Population: the Path is Purely Methodological
Authors: Drèze Jacques H.
Published: September 2022

The paper discusses the relationship between two problems, namely: (i) assigning a value to reduction in death probabilities, i.e. defining a « value of life », and (ii) assigning a value to changes in population, i.e. defining guidelines for the ethics and economics of population. While, for Broome, “in one sense, prolonging a person’s life and adding a new person to the world are alternative ways of doing the same things”, this paper argues that the two problems are quite distinct, in the sense that a precise answer to the first provides no guide live at all for second, and conversely. There is no inconsinstency in providing safety according to a high “value of life” while giving population growth a negative value. But there is a methodological link: both problemes have a public choice dimension, and can therefore be approached along parallel methodological lines. With respect to the economics and ethics of population, the paper offers some defense of the Pareto criterion among the living, and comments on the practice and theory of social choise.
Amplification des cycles: le rôle des facteurs financiers, des rigidités et des anticipations
Authors: Artus Patrick
Published: September 2022

La possibilité selon laquelle la flexibilité des prix et des salaires peut augmenter l’ampleur des fluctuations cycliques a été avancée. Si ces grandeurs nominales sont flexibles, en cas de récession la baisse de prix pourrait faire monter le taux d’intérêt réel, freinant ainsi encore davantage la demande, et aggravant la crise. On rejoint ainsi la théorie de la “debt deflation”: dans les récessions, la baisse de prix accroît la valeur réelle de l’endettement, dégrade la situation financière des agents emprunteurs et concourt au recul de l’activité. Cette théorie pourrait retrouver une actualité aujourd'hui, en particulier dans des pays comme la France, en raison de la réduction des rigidités qui affectaient les marchés du travail. Nous l’analysons à l’aide d’un modèle simple faisant intervenir le mode de formation des salaires, les anticipations d’inflation, diverses possibilités de distorsions nominales ou rigidités, et plusieurs chocs aléatoires affectant l’économie.
The US “Twin Deficits”: A Reappraisal
Authors: Sopraseuth Thepthida
Published: September 2022

Une importante littérature empirique a analysé, depuis le milieu des années 80, la relation entre les déficits budgétaires et commerciaux des Etats-Unis, sans jamais atteindre un consensus. Deux éléments peu-vent être pris en compte pour expliquer ces résultats contradictoires. La comparaison des données à niveau par rapport aux données stationnarisées a un impact sur les conclusions. On remarque, à côté de cela, que le lien entre les exportations nettes et le solde budgétaire des Etats-Unis, stationnarisés ou non, est instable. Ce manque de robustesse peut venir de changements dans la contribution relative des chocs de demande et d’oñre dans l’économie américaine : les chocs de demande génèrent généralement une corrélation positive entre les déficits commerciaux et fiscaux, tandis que les chocs d’offre impliquent une corrélation négative entre les deux séries. Afín de contrôler la relevance empirique de cette intuition, nous avons employé un modèle RBC standard. Avec différents taux estimés de volatilité des chocs d’offre et de demande, le modèle répond aux changements de corrélation entre la balance commerciale et fiscale des Etats-Unis pour chaque sous-exemple, exceptés les années 90.
Modifications de comportement précédant la défaillance d’entreprise: l’impact des cessions d’actifs sur la relation de crédit
Authors: Blazy Régis
Published: September 2022

Le processus de défaillance d’une entreprise, lorsqu’il résulte d’une dégradation de ses performances économiques, est affecté par les règles de partage qui prendront place en cas de liquidation. Il existe notamment, en cas de dégradation continue des résultats, des incitations conduisant l’entreprise à réduire son potentiel de croissance, par cession prématurée des actifs, afin de préserver la confiance de ses partenaires. Ce type de comportement, en retardant le défaut de paiement, risque d’accroître l’insuffisance d’actif et, par voie de conséquence, réduire le taux de recouvrement des créances. Néanmoins, en cas de difficultés temporaires, la politique de cession prématurée des actifs peut constituer un outil stratégique efficace contre le refus de prèt. Les résultats d’une enquète menée auprès du Tribunal de Commerce de Paris entre 1993 et 1995 (données de 1991) confirment l’existence de telles cessions d’actifs : en retardant le déclenchement de la procédure collective, elles constituent un obstacle au redressement des entreprises.
Winning The Art Lottery : The Economic Returns to The Ganz Collection
Authors: Landes William M.
Published: September 2022

In 1997, the Christie’s sale of 20th century art works from the estate Victor and Sally Ganz netted more than $207 million, a record sum for a single-owner sale of art at auction. The paper presents estimates of the Ganzes’ financial returns from investing in art using records the Ganzes’ kept on the prices they originally paid for the works sold in 1997 and two earlier auctions in 1986 and 1988. Over the period 1948 to 1997 the Ganzes earned real rates of return ranging from 12 to over 21 percent for works sold at the three auctions. Overall, the Ganzes beat-often by a wide margin-the returns from diversified portfolios of common stocks. The empirical evidence shows that the Ganzes were not only lucky but skillful investors as well. Their financial success did not result from a few lucky purchases. They earned consistently high returns, regularly beating the stock market on works by different artists acquired at different time periods. I also found that buyers were willing to pay a price premium for works from the Ganz collection compared to “identical” works sold by others. For example, buyers paid between 25 and 90 percent more for prints from the Ganz collection than for otherwise identical prints. The likely source of this premium is the quality and prestige of the Ganzes’ collection itself not the recently acquired celebrity status of the collectors.
An economic guide to ticket pricing in the entertainment industry
Authors: Courty Pascal
Published: September 2022

This paper reviews the literature on ticket pricing in the entertainment industry. All along, I try to evaluate whether ticket markets outcomes are consistent with theoretical predictions. Overall, the literature provides a good understanding for observed variations in ticket prices. The literature, however, fails to explain situations where prices do not vary. We have but a poor understanding for why prices often do not vary over the run of a show, why more popular shows do not charge more and why most venues are scaled in just a few sections. I also review the empirical literature of price discrimination in ticket markets. By contrasting the theoretical and the empirical literatures, the paper identifies a set of promising directions for future research.
Inequality decomposition by factor component: a “rank-correlation” approach illustrated on the Taiwanese case
Authors: Fournier Martin
Published: September 2022

This paper systematises the method initiated by Burtless (1999) and provides a general framework for decomposing inequality by factor components. It has the double advantage over usual decomposition procedures to allow for a decomposition of changes in the whole income distribution and to distinguish between the effect of marginal distribution changes of income sources and that of changes in correlation between income sources. An illustration is provided for Taiwan, which emphasises the central role played by changes in assortative mating of spouses.
Undisciplined Reading
Authors: Briefel Aviva
Published: September 2022

In their field-shaking 2020 essay, “Undisciplining Victorian Studies,” Ronjaunee Chatterjee, Alicia Mireles Christoff, and Amy R. Wong set out to “think carefully and deliberately about how we can develop a truly relational thinking and set of practices that engage scholarship across fields and disciplines, enabling a cross-fertilization of ideas, a coalition-based politics and activism, and even a refashioning of academic structures to better serve the purposes of equity and justice.” Sukanya Banerjee, Ryan D. Fong, and Helena Michie make a similarly powerful call in their introductory essay, “Widening the Nineteenth Century,” for a 2021 special issue of Victorian Literature and Culture. This “widening” occurs across different fields and dimensions, stemming from a “wish to examine the interpretive and methodological possibilities that emerge when we expand our objects of study beyond what has been ordained by the temporal—and spatial—purview of the British nineteenth century, which is to say that we wish to put further pressure on the geotemporal linkage that has largely tethered studies of the nineteenth century to the geographic confines of Britain.” My sense is that central to these projects to “undiscipline” and “widen” the Victorian field should be a reexamining of our reading practices as scholars. What do we read, and when? Do we stick to our “subfields,” however we define these, or do we venture elsewhere? And what does it look like to read “elsewhere” while continuing to produce meaningful scholarship?
Public trust and the populist leader: A theoretical argument
Authors: Vitale David , Girard Raphaël
Published: September 2022

This article adds nuance to current understandings of the relationship between the populist leader and the public by using the concept of trust. Merging the literature on populism with the growing scholarship on trust from philosophy, psychology and other social sciences, it argues that following on from the populist leader’s appeals to similarity, the populist–public relationship involves an intertwining of two forms of public trust: the public’s trust in the populist and the public’s trust in itself (what we term ‘public self-trust’). Contrary to what political and constitutional theorists have recognized as a tension between public self-trust and the public’s trust in its political representatives, we contend based on the scholarship on trust that in the populist–public relationship these two forms of trust can be mutually reinforcing. This mutual reinforcement, we suggest, has the potential to create a positive feedback loop of public trust that, given the value of public trust to political leaders, empowers the populist.
Effects of lithium on suicide and suicidal behaviour: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised trials
Authors: Nabi Zainab , Stansfeld Jacki , Plöderl Martin , Wood Lisa , Moncrieff Joanna
Published: September 2022

Aims

Lithium has long been believed to reduce the risk of suicide and suicidal behaviour in people with mood disorders. Previous meta-analyses appeared to support this belief, but excluded relevant data due to the difficulty of conducting meta-analysis of rare events. The current study is an updated systematic review and meta-analysis that includes all eligible data, and evaluates suicide, non-fatal suicidal behaviour (including suicidal ideation) and suicide attempts.

Methods

We searched PubMed, PsycINFO and Embase and some trial registers. We included all randomised trials comparing lithium and placebo or treatment as usual in mood disorders published after 2000, to ensure suicide was reliably reported. Trial quality was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. Pooled data were analysed using Fisher's Exact test. In addition, meta-analysis was conducted using various methods, prioritizing the Exact method. All trials were included in the analysis of suicide initially, regardless of whether they reported on suicide or not. We conducted a sensitivity analysis with trials that specifically reported on suicides and one that included trials published before 2000. Pre-specified subgroup analyses were performed involving suicide prevention trials, trials excluding people already taking lithium, trials involving people with bipolar disorder exclusively and those involving people with mixed affective diagnoses. Non-fatal suicidal behaviour and suicide attempts were analysed using the same methods, but only trials that reported these outcomes were included. PROSPERO registration: CRD42021265809.

Results

Twelve eligible studies involving 2578 participants were included. The pooled suicide rate was 0.2% for people randomised to lithium and 0.4% with placebo or treatment as usual, which was not a statistically significant difference; odds ratio (OR) = 0.41 (95% confidence interval 0.03–2.49), p = 0.45. Meta-analysis using the Exact method produced an OR of 0.42 (95% confidence interval 0.01–4.5). The result was not substantially different when restricted to 11 trials that explicitly reported suicides and remained statistically non-significant when including 15 trials published before 2000 (mostly in the 1970s). There were no significant differences in any subgroup analysis. There was no difference in rates of all non-fatal suicidal behaviour in seven trials that reported this outcome, or in five trials that reported suicide attempts specifically. Meta-analyses using other methods also revealed no statistically significant differences.

Conclusions

Evidence from randomised trials is inconclusive and does not support the idea that lithium prevents suicide or suicidal behaviour.
Substantive and Political Learning among the US States: Abortion Policy Diffusion, 1993–2016
Authors: Pollert Isaac , Mooney Christopher Z.
Published: September 2022

Do policymakers learn from the policy experiences of other governments, and if so, what do they learn? A long-established normative claim suggests that intergovernmental learning can and should occur among the US states, which serve as “laboratories of democracy” for the nation. We put this claim to a tough test, comparing the influences on the diffusion of instrumental Targeted Regulation of Abortion Providers (TRAP) laws with that of more symbolic abortion regulation, from 1993 to 2016. We find evidence of substantive intergovernmental learning in policy diffusion even for abortion regulation—but only for instrumental abortion regulation. On symbolic abortion policy, states appear to learn mainly political lessons. Furthermore, proponents and opponents appear to learn different lessons in these diffusions, with loss aversion motivating opponents especially highly. Our results suggest that policymakers have a sophisticated understanding of the differences among policies’ goals and act strategically in pursuit of those goals.
Practitioner Review: Signposts for Enhancing Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy for School Refusal in Adolescence
Authors: Heyne David
Published: September 2022

Abstract. Factors associated with adolescent development influence the occurrence and presentation of school refusal (SR). Cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) manuals for the treatment of SR account for these developmental issues to varying degrees. Some multimodal treatments aim to address the complexity of adolescent SR by incorporating interventions alongside CBT, such as medication, inpatient treatment, and educational support in a special setting. However, CBT manuals and multimodal treatments appear to fail to help approximately one-third to two-thirds of adolescents, with respect to achieving regular school attendance. This paper provides an overview of suggestions in the literature for improving treatment for SR, with a focus on adolescent SR. Seven signposts emerge from the literature, namely, increased number or frequency of sessions, greater attention to social anxiety disorder and social functioning, greater attention to depression, greater attention to emotion regulation, careful consideration of the role of parents, greater attention to parent-adolescent communication and problem-solving, and the use of alternative educational settings. Professionals may find these signposts helpful when planning and delivering treatment for SR in adolescents. Research is needed to determine the benefit of including one or more of these adaptations alongside an existing SR treatment.
Conjunctive Water Management for Agriculture With Groundwater Salinity
Authors: Yao Yiqing , Lund Jay R. , Harter Thomas
Published: September 2022

Salt accumulations in aquifers significantly affect and transform the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater supporting irrigated agriculture. Salt accumulates in aquifers under many semi‐arid irrigated lands where pumping has lowered water levels enough to prevent drainage of saline groundwater from the basin. This paper provides new insights into optimal conjunctive management of groundwater pumping, recharge, surface water, and cropping patterns with groundwater salinity and hydrologic variability in an irrigated semi‐arid region, such as California's western San Joaquin Valley, reducing agricultural crop yields and revenues. A two‐stage stochastic quadratic model explores this problem to prescribe economically optimal crop mix and conjunctive water operation policies over a 10‐year period with probabilistic annual surface water availability, considering groundwater salinity's harm to crop yields. At low groundwater salinity, agricultural conjunctive use usually pumps most groundwater in drier years, supplied by additional recharge in wetter years. In contrast, at higher groundwater salinity, optimal conjunctive use pumps less in drier years while pumping more in wetter years, when more surface water allows more dilution of saltier groundwater. Reduced pumping in drier years substantially reduces a region's ability to support higher‐value perennial crops and reduces or eliminates lower‐value annual crops in dry years. Artificial recharge with fresh surface water in wetter years can have economic value from slowing groundwater salination which allows more groundwater use in drier years.
A Quantitative Analysis of the Source of Inter‐Model Spread in Arctic Surface Warming Response to Increased CO2 Concentration
Authors: Hu Xiaoming , Liu Yanchi , Kong Yunqi , Yang Qinghua
Published: September 2022

This study exams the main sources of inter‐model spread in Arctic amplification of surface warming simulated in the abrupt‐4 × CO2 experiments of 18 CMIP6 models. It is found that the same seasonal energy transfer mechanism, namely that the part of extra solar energy absorbed by Arctic Ocean in summer due to sea‐ice melting is temporally stored in ocean in summer and is released in cold months, is responsible for the Arctic amplification in each of the 18 simulations. The models with more (less) ice melting and heat storing in the ocean in summer have the stronger (weaker) ocean heat release in cold season. Associated with more (less) heat release in cold months are more (less) clouds, stronger (weaker) poleward heat transport, and stronger (weaker) upward surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. This explains why the Arctic surface warming is strongest in the cold months and so is its inter‐model spread.
How Unexpected Was the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave?
Authors: McKinnon Karen A. , Simpson Isla R.
Published: September 2022

The 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave featured record‐smashing high temperatures, raising questions about whether extremes are changing faster than the mean, and challenging our ability to estimate the probability of the event. Here, we identify and draw on the strong relationship between the climatological higher‐order statistics of temperature (skewness and kurtosis) and the magnitude of extreme events to quantify the likelihood of comparable events using a large climate model ensemble (Community Earth System Model version 2 Large Ensemble [CESM2‐LE]). In general, CESM2 can simulate temperature anomalies as extreme as those observed in 2021, but they are rare: temperature anomalies that exceed 4.5σ occur with an approximate frequency of one in a hundred thousand years. The historical data does not indicate that the upper tail of temperature is warming faster than the mean; however, future projections for locations with similar climatological moments to the Pacific Northwest do show significant positive trends in the probability of the most extreme events.
The Contribution of Climate Change to Increasing Extreme Ocean Warming Around Japan
Authors: Hayashi M. , Shiogama H. , Ogura T.
Published: September 2022

Global warming is attributed to human activities that potentially cause record warm sea surface temperatures (SSTs) worldwide. However, to what extent climate change has altered discrete extreme ocean warming (EOW) around Japan remains unclear. Here, we show the impact of global warming on EOW events (high SSTs less frequent than once per 20 years at the preindustrial level) surrounding Japan in each calendar month for 1982–2022 using climate models. In contrast to the gradually increasing occurrences of EOW events, the most frequent events occurred in approximately 1998 and the mid‐2010s, especially in southern Japan. We found climate change was not yet dominant in the 1998 events but has multiplied the occurrence probability of most events by at least twice since 2000. Furthermore, we estimated that the possibility of the future normal climate exceeding record high SSTs can be sharply reduced by limiting global warming from 2°C to 1.5°C.
The Local Time and Altitude Dependences of Long‐Lived Nonspecular Meteor Echoes With Weak Magnetic Aspect Sensitivity at Low Latitudes
Authors: Wang Ye , Li Guozhu , Xiao Zhuowei
Published: September 2022

Long‐lived nonspecular meteor echoes backscattered from meteor trail nonfield‐aligned irregularities (NFAIs) were observed sporadically at high latitudes. In this study, we employ the observations by the all‐sky radar of Meteor and ionospheric Irregularity Observation System (MIOS) at Ledong (18.4°N, 109°E) in October 2018, January, April, and July 2019, to investigate the occurrences of meteor trail NFAIs at low latitudes. A deep learning method was developed to identify long‐lived meteor echo events with durations of more than 5 s. The long‐lived echo events with triangular shape (a typical feature of nonspecular echo) in radar range‐time intensity maps were manually distinguished from those with nontriangular shape. Based on the cutoff magnetic aspect angle 12° of nonspecular meteor echoes from field‐aligned irregularities (FAIs), the local time and altitude dependences of meteor NFAIs producing long‐lived nonspecular echoes are investigated. A total of 846 meteor events due to the backscatters of NFAIs were observed. These events peak around the morning hours, with the beginning (end) altitudes up to (down to) 120 km (∼80 km). Their mean heights are about 2–6 km higher than specular meteor echoes. The occurrence of NFAI echoes peaks on certain days that is likely associated with meteor showers. The ratio of the observed NFAI echo to specular echo events is, on average, less than 1‰. Possible factors responsible for the NFAIs at low latitudes are discussed based on the current understanding of meteor dust trail.
Thin Filaments in an Average Magnetosphere: Pure Interchange Versus Ballooning Oscillations
Authors: Toffoletto F. R. , Wolf R. A. , Derr J.
Published: September 2022

This paper describes magnetospheric waves of very long wavelength in thin magnetic filaments. We consider an average magnetospheric configuration with zero ionospheric conductance and calculate waves using two different formulations: classic interchange theory and ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) ballooning. Classic interchange theory, which is developed in detail in this paper, is basically analytic and is relatively straightforward to determine computationally, but it cannot offer very high accuracy. The eigenfrequencies from the two formulations cover a range of a factor of seven and generally agree with a root‐mean‐square difference between the common logarithms of interchange and MHD frequencies to be ∼0.054. The pressure perturbations in the classic interchange theory are assumed constant along each field line, but the MHD computed pressure perturbations along the field line vary in a range ∼30% in the plasma sheet but are larger in the inner magnetosphere. The parallel and perpendicular displacements, which are very different in the plasma sheet and inner magnetosphere, show good qualitative agreement between the two approaches. In the plasma sheet, the perpendicular displacements are strongly concentrated in the equatorial plane, whereas the parallel displacements are spread through most of the plasma sheet away from the equatorial plane; and can be regarded as buoyancy waves. In the inner magnetosphere, the displacements are more sinusoidal and are more like conventional slow modes. The different forms of the waves are best characterized by the flux tube entropy PVγ.
Ocean Mixed Layer Response to Two Post‐Monsoon Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal in 2018
Authors: Jarugula Sree Lekha , McPhaden Michael J.
Published: September 2022

The Bay of Bengal (BoB) is characterized by a shallow (∼10–20 m deep) fresh layer associated with 40–60 m deep warm near‐surface layer during the post‐monsoon season (October–November). We use hourly observations from a moored buoy at 15°N, 90°E along with satellite and ocean analysis data sets to understand the evolution of the near‐surface layer during the passage of two category‐3 cyclonic storms: Cyclone Titli (7–11 October 2018) and cyclone Gaja (10–15 November 2018). The mooring was ∼200 km away to the right of the two cyclone tracks. A 15 day (22 September–7 October) break in the Indian summer monsoon resulted in clear skies, calm winds, and sea surface temperature warming (SST) by 2.8°C before Titli. During Titli, near‐surface thermal stratification restricted vertical mixing to 20 m depth and limited SST cooling at the mooring. During passage of cyclone Gaja, fresh Irrawaddy River water associated with a subsurface warm layer was advected to the mooring by mesoscale eddy flow. Cyclone winds could not break through the near‐surface density stratification associated with this river water. Shear associated with near‐inertial currents led to delayed mixed layer deepening after the cyclone's passage but there was no cold wake along the track of Gaja due to mixing of subsurface warm water to the surface. We illustrate the relevant processes at work for the two cyclones based on mixed layer salt and heat balance at 15°N, 90°E. This study demonstrates the importance of ocean preconditioning and thermohaline stratification on SST evolution under the influence of post‐monsoon cyclones in BoB.
Modeling Gas Flow Velocities in Soils Induced by Variations in Surface Pressure, Heat, and Moisture Dynamics
Authors: Massman W. J. , Frank J. M.
Published: September 2022

Changes in atmospheric pressure continuously ventilate soils and snowpacks. This physical process, known as pressure pumping, is a major factor in the exchange fluxes of H2O, CO2, and other trace gases between the soil and atmosphere. Thus models of pressure pumping are relevant to many areas of critical importance. This study compares the three principal models used to describe pressure pumping. Beginning with the fundamental physical principles and whether the flow field is compressible or incompressible, these models are categorized as linear parabolic (one model—compressible) or nonlinear hyperbolic (two models—incompressible). Using observed soil surface pressure data, measured vertical profiles of soil permeability and standard linear analysis and numerical methods, this study shows that nonlinear models produce advective velocities that are one to two orders of magnitude greater than those associated with the linear model. Incorporating soil temperature and moisture dynamics made very little difference to the linear model, but a significant difference in the nonlinear models suggesting that advective velocities induced by pressure changes associated with soil heating and moisture dynamics may not always be small enough to ignore. All numerical results are sensitive to the frequency of the pressure forcing, which was band‐pass filtered into low, mid and high frequencies with the greatest model differences at low frequencies. Partitioning the pressure forcing and model responses helped to establish that mid‐frequency weather‐related phenomena (empirically identified as inertia gravity waves and solitons) are important drivers of gas exchange between the soil and the atmosphere.
Spatial and Temporal Confinement of the Ionospheric Responses During the St. Patrick's Day Storm of March 2015
Authors: Kader Sk Samin , Dashora N. , Niranjan K.
Published: September 2022

The present study provides a multi‐instrument analysis of the ionospheric response to the effects of the St. Patrick's Day storm of 17–18 March 2015. Simultaneous observations from 85 global positioning system stations and multiple satellites along the past observations from the literature survey are utilized to ascertain the spatio‐temporal confinements between −20°E and 150°E longitudes. The main results include longitudinal differences in the episodic equatorward expansions of the auroral oval which is shown to relate with varying high‐latitude Joule heating and equatorward wind surges at different local times. The zonal movement of equatorial ion density depletions from initially east to west followed by a sluggish westward pattern on the night of 17 March is observed. The zonal movement is found to be better explained by the longitudinally decreasing impact of the disturbance dynamo in the nightside. The enhancements in total electron content during morning on 17 March are observed over mid‐latitudes, which are found to move equatorward in the noon time. These enhancements could be associated with the enhanced O density bulge resulting from the thermospheric expansion during the main phase. A daytime sustained and confined electron density depletion between about 100°E and 170°E is observed on 18 March which is being discussed in detail for the first time. Interestingly, large longitudinal differences are observed in the response of the disturbance dynamo, including no observable effect during morning (−20°E–20°E) but dominant afternoon and westward progression during the day of 18 March.
Fitness is positively associated with hippocampal formation subfield volumes in schizophrenia: a multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging study
Authors: Maurus Isabel , Roell Lukas , Keeser Daniel , Papazov Boris , Papazova Irina , Lembeck Moritz , Roeh Astrid , Wagner Elias , Hirjak Dusan , Malchow Berend , Ertl-Wagner Birgit , Stoecklein Sophia , Hasan Alkomiet , Schmitt Andrea , Meyer-Lindenberg Andreas , Falkai Peter
Published: September 2022

Hippocampal formation (HF) volume loss is a well-established finding in schizophrenia, with select subfields, such as the cornu ammonis and dentate gyrus, being particularly vulnerable. These morphologic alterations are related to functional abnormalities and cognitive deficits, which are at the core of the insufficient recovery frequently seen in this illness. To counteract HF volume decline, exercise to improve aerobic fitness is considered as a promising intervention. However, the effects of aerobic fitness levels on HF subfields are not yet established in individuals with schizophrenia. Therefore, our study investigated potential associations between aerobic fitness and HF subfield structure, functional connectivity, and related cognitive impact in a multiparametric research design. In this cross-sectional study, 53 participants diagnosed with schizophrenia (33 men, 20 women; mean [SD] age, 37.4 [11.8] years) underwent brain structural and functional magnetic resonance imaging and assessments of aerobic fitness and verbal memory. Multivariate multiple linear regressions were performed to determine whether aerobic fitness was associated with HF subfield volumes and functional connections. In addition, we explored whether identified associations mediated verbal memory functioning. Significant positive associations between aerobic fitness levels and volumes were demonstrated for most HF subfields, with the strongest associations for the cornu ammonis, dentate gyrus, and subiculum. No significant associations were found for HF functional connectivity or mediation effects on verbal memory. Aerobic fitness may mitigate HF volume loss, especially in the subfields most affected in schizophrenia. This finding should be further investigated in longitudinal studies.

Clinical Trials Registration: The study on which the manuscript is based was registered in the International Clinical Trials Database, ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT number: NCT03466112) and in the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS-ID: DRKS00009804).
Maternal and infant NR3C1 and SLC6A4 epigenetic signatures of the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown: when timing matters
Authors: Nazzari Sarah , Grumi Serena , Mambretti Fabiana , Villa Marco , Giorda Roberto , Provenzi Livio ,   MOM-COPE Study Group, Borgatti Renato , Biasucci Giacomo , Decembrino Lidia , Giacchero Roberta , Magnani Maria Luisa , Nacinovich Renata , Prefumo Federico , Spinillo Arsenio , Veggiotti Pierangelo
Published: September 2022

Stress exposure during pregnancy is critically linked with maternal mental health and child development. The effects might involve altered patterns of DNA methylation in specific stress-related genes (i.e., glucocorticoid receptor gene, NR3C1, and serotonin transporter gene, SLC6A4) and might be moderated by the gestational timing of stress exposure. In this study, we report on NR3C1 and SLC6A4 methylation status in Italian mothers and infants who were exposed to the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown during different trimesters of pregnancy. From May 2020 to February 2021, 283 mother–infant dyads were enrolled at delivery. Within 24 h from delivery, buccal cells were collected to assess NR3C1 (44 CpG sites) and SLC6A4 (13 CpG sites) methylation status. Principal component (PC) analyses were used to reduce methylation data dimension to one PC per maternal and infant gene methylation. Mother–infant dyads were split into three groups based on the pregnancy trimester (first, second, third), during which they were exposed to the COVID-19 lockdown. Mothers and infants who were exposed to the lockdown during the first trimester of pregnancy had lower NR3C1 and SLC6A4 methylation when compared to counterparts exposed during the second or third trimesters. The effect remained significant after controlling for confounders. Women who were pregnant during the pandemic and their infants might present altered epigenetic biomarkers of stress-related genes. As these epigenetic marks have been previously linked with a heightened risk of maternal psychiatric problems and less-than-optimal child development, mothers and infants should be adequately monitored for psychological health during and after the pandemic.