Nowcasting Burn Probability for the Contiguous United States
Authors: Keeping Theodore , Harrison Sandy P. , Prentice Colin , Shepherd Ted , Wardman John 
Published: March 2022

&lt;p&gt;&lt;span xml:lang=&quot;EN-GB&quot; data-contrast=&quot;none&quot;&gt;&lt;span data-ccp-parastyle-defn=&quot;{&quot;&gt;The&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;probability&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;of wildfire&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span xml:lang=&quot;EN-GB&quot; data-contrast=&quot;none&quot;&gt;&lt;span&gt;occurrence&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span xml:lang=&quot;EN-GB&quot; data-contrast=&quot;none&quot;&gt;&lt;span&gt;has been successfully&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;predicted&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;on coarse spatial scales (~0.5&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#176;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;) based on empirical modelling of burned area. This method&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;has limited scope for&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;predicting&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;th&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;e&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;wildfire hazard at local scales&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;and in the&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;near&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;-term&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;, both necessary for wildfire management&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;.&amp;#8239;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;A&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;high-resolution, practically applicable hazard model&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;can be built through&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;quantify&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;ing&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;the&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;probability&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;of fire&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;as a function of&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;site-specific&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;present and antecedent&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;climate and&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;vegetation&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;variables.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#8239;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;Here we apply&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;the known&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;Poisson&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;and Pareto distributions of wildfire occurrence and fire size&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;in&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;a two-step hazard model,&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;where&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;the probability of a location being affected by wildfire&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;is&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;approximated&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;using&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;multiple&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;climate and vegetation&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;parameters&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;.&amp;#8239;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;In addition, we examine&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;other predictor va&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;riables that have been used for modelling&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;fire&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;at coarse resolution&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;,&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;e.g.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;road density,&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;to determine at what spatial scale they&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;lose predictive power&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;.&amp;#8239;The study&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;focus&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;es exclusively on the contiguous United States, due to its comparatively long and high-resolution record of wildfire events.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;