Forecasting housing units in Iran
Authors: Afsahhosseini Fatemehalsadat 
Published: March 2019

Purpose

The theory of competitiveness of cities is based on Porter’s Diamond Theory. There is a relation between housing and urban competitiveness. The adequacy of land supply and allocation of land for new housing development is integral. This paper aims to estimate the required number of housing units to secure housing needs in Tehran for the next four years in 1400 H.Sh (2021 A.D.). The research methodology is carried out using qualitative and quantitative approaches based on the given data. First, the population of Tehran in 1400 H.Sh was predicted using nonlinear quadratic polynomial, Gompertz and logistic models. Then, a Logistic model is proposed to estimate the number of housing units in Tehran. The calculations of residential units related to the population obtained from the Gompertz model equivalent to 663141 is suggested as a criterion for local authority to future decision making and planning for urban development.

Design/methodology/approach

The present research is an applied research in terms of the purpose a descriptive research in terms of the nature and methodology and a descriptive-analytical research in terms of attitude and approach toward the research problem (Hafeznia, 2013, 58, 63 and 71). To provide the required information for the analytical stage, a documentary method, related to the use of internal and external books and papers, has been applied. First, the population of Tehran in 1400 H.Sh is estimated using three nonlinear models of quadratic polynomials, Gompertz and logistic. Then, among them, the options that were more consistent with the estimation of the new comprehensive plan of Tehran (1386 H.Sh), which is the most important plan of this city, were chosen. After that, by using the logistic model, which is an appropriate expression of saturable phenomena and a suitable method of estimating the number of residential units in a city and based on the past trend, the future of housing is predicted, and the number of required residential units is determined.

Findings

Any city for competitiveness must seek the search and development of a set of unique strategies and practices that will shape its status from other cities. No single action for all cities is feasible. In fact, the most important challenge is to propose a unique value proposition and to formulate a strategy that distinguishes that city from the rest. Among the measures taken around the world is attention to infrastructure. From the point of view of competitiveness, different types of investment in infrastructure are important for different types of cities and in different stages of development of a city. Large cities need targeted investments in housing issues to overcome the segments associated with the poorer neighborhoods. Without investment in desirable housing, there will be holes in competitive advantage. In this paper, the number of residential units in Tehran was projected for 2021. The city’s population was originally estimated for 2021. In addition to the models used to predict and estimate necessary, it is necessary to consider the area, land use map, future development lines and […] city. To this end, the city can continue to meet the needs of residents’ diversification and the city’s needs. We cannot accept any predictions about the population and, consequently, the number of residential units. Providing predictions can provide the most predictive, or more prudent, and different scenarios that can emerge, which will lead to flexibility in the presentation of plans and programs. Among the models that were used to predict the population, the result obtained from second-order polynomial and Gompartz models was found to be appropriate for the estimation of the new comprehensive design of Tehran (2007). But the prediction of the population of the logistic model was beyond the prediction of the new comprehensive plan of Tehran (2007) and thus was not considered appropriate. The number of residential units required according to the predicted population of the second order polynomial models, Gompartz and the population considered in the new comprehensive plan of Tehran (2007). After the finalization of the proposed population, using the logistic model, the number of residential units needed in Tehran was projected for 2021. Since these three estimates are somewhat close to each other, it is suggested that Gompertz model calculations, equivalent to 663,141 residential units, are proposed, and according to that, local authorities are planning to supply land to achieve economic competitiveness (urban). As it is shown in the conceptual model of the paper in Figure 1, after determining the need for housing, it is necessary to ask whether the adequacy of the supply and allocation of land, as well as the importance of maintaining it for the development of housing by local authorities, is clear. Also, is there any suitable planning for that? Despite the severe shortage of ready-made land for the city of Tehran, a large volume of land is a large area owned by natural and legal persons, and, in particular, state-owned enterprises of semipublic and public institutions, which have been abandoned in cities for years without use and in the form of barren. According to municipal management laws, municipalities can receive land, taxes and fees that are included in the annual budget of the Tehran Municipality. According to the figure obtained from this study, which states that 663,141 residential units are needed for Tehran in 2021, large landowners in Tehran need to supply their land to the market. According to the Population and Housing Census in Tehran in 2011, there are 245,769 inhabited vacancies in Tehran; hence there are two scenarios for the provision of residential units in the city of Tehran in 2021, assuming that these units in the housing market require 417,372 units Another residence will be for Tehran, otherwise 663141 residential units will be needed for Tehran in 2021. Other possibl

Originality/value

Tehran is the largest city and the capital of Iran, and it is also the capital of the province Tehran. In the southern foothills of the Alborz Mountains within a longitude of 51 degrees and 2 minutes East to 51 degrees and 36 minutes East, with an approximate length of 50 kilometers and latitude 35 degrees and 34 minutes North to 35 degrees and 50 minutes North with an approximate width of 30 kilometers. The area of this city is 730 km2. This is one of the largest cities in West Asia, the 25th the most populous city, and the 27th greatest city to the world. The administrative structure of Iran has been concentrated in this city. The city has been divided into 22 zones, 134 areas (including Rey and Tajrish), and 370 districts (Wikipedia). The problem of housing in the city of Tehran has always been one of the important issues that less has been planned for it. The result is housing shortage, high housing prices and so on, due to the excessive expansion of the city, its population increase and so on.