bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Investigating short-term glacial velocity variations in High Mountain Asia using remote sensing 
Authors: Baldacchino Francesca , Bolch Tobias
Published: March 2024

Glacier flow is a sensitive indicator of mass balance and dynamics. Monitoring changes in glacier flow at high temporal resolutions enables understanding of the glacier’s sensitivity to short-term climate variability. We focus on different regions across High Mountain Asia (HMA) where glaciers have different average velocities (slow, median, and fast). HMA has the largest glacier coverage outside the polar regions and is considered the water tower of Asia. Previous studies have found that the glaciers in HMA are in tendency slowing down concomitant to losing mass at an accelerating rate. We use both optical and SAR remote sensing data including Sentinel-1 and -2, Planet and Pléiades images to present multiple remotely sensed calculated glacial velocities for the different regions of HMA over the last decade. We calculate the velocity variations using different tracking methods. By analysing the accuracy of the velocity variations through validation with the higher spatial resolution Pleiades velocity dataset and field data as well as using statistical techniques such as the GLAcier Feature Tracking testkit (Zheng et al., 2023), we provide insights into the accuracy of the different remote sensing data and tracking methods. Finally, we explore possible internal and external drivers of the observed glacial velocity variations, with a focus on mass balance and short-term climate variability.Zheng, W., Bhushan, S., Van Wyk De Vries, M., Kochtitzky, W., Shean, D., Copland, L., Dow, C., Jones-Ivey, R., and Pérez, F.: GLAcier Feature Tracking testkit (GLAFT): a statistically and physically based framework for evaluating glacier velocity products derived from optical satellite image feature tracking, The Cryosphere, 17, 4063–4078, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-17-4063-2023, 2023.
Radiative effect of two contrail cirrus outbreaks over Western Europe estimated using geostationary satellite observations and radiative transfer calculations
Authors: Wang Xinyue , Wolf Kevin , Boucher Olivier , Bellouin Nicolas
Published: March 2024

Estimation of the perturbation to the Earth’s energy budget by contrail-cirrus outbreaks is required for estimating the climate impact of aviation and verifying the climate benefits of proposed contrail avoidance strategies such as aircraft rerouting. Here we identified two large-scale and successive contrail-cirrus outbreaks in geostationary and polar-orbiting satellite infrared images of Western Europe lasting from 22 to 23 June 2020. These two outbreaks last 18 and at least 7 hours and have a mean optical depth of 0.3 and 0.6, respectively. Their cloud radiative effect is calculated using geostationary satellite cloud retrievals and radiative transfer calculations, is weak or negative during daytime and positive during nighttime. Surface albedo affects the sign of the cloud radiative effect, which switches from negative over ocean to positive over land in the first outbreak. The cumulative energy forcing of the outbreak is 7 PJ and –8.5 PJ, respectively, with uncertainties from individual cloud retrievals being about 3 PJ. This study suggests that automated quantification of contrail-cirrus radiative forcing for monitoring or avoidance verification should be possible based on geostationary satellite observations.
Drivers of coastal real estate demand under flood model predictions in the UK
Authors: Seenath Avidesh , Mahadeo Scott Mark Romeo , Blackett Matthew , Catterson Jade
Published: March 2024

Flood model predictions are becoming increasingly available online through open access flood risk maps and communications. While these predictions are important for flood management, their inherent uncertainty presents a considerable risk for real estate markets, a leading indicator of macroeconomic performance.  We, therefore, need to understand the factors influencing real estate demand in an era of open access flood model predictions. Here, we investigate the role of gender, education, employment, place of residence, caring responsibilities, income, insurance, location preferences, level of risk aversion, and flood experience and awareness on coastal real estate demand decisions in the UK in response to flood model predictions. Here, our objective is test whether access to flood predictions is a leading driver of real estate demand decisions or whether alternative factors influence how people perceive such predictions. We achieve this by applying an inter-disciplinary approach, involving numerical flood modelling, a novel experimental willingness-to-pay real estate survey of UK residents in response to flood model outputs, statistical and geospatial modelling, and thematic analysis. Our preliminary findings indicate that access to flood model predictions is the primary factor influencing real estate demand decisions, whereas alternative factors considered have negligible impact. Such preliminary findings suggest that we need to re-think how flood model predictions are communicated in order to minimise real estate risks.  
Hyperspectral Reflectance of Pre- and Post-Fire Soils: Toward Remote Sensing of Fire-Induced Soil Hydrophobicity
Authors: Raeofy Yasaman , Samburova Vera , Berli Markus , Sion Brad , Moosmüller Hans
Published: March 2024

Recently, wildfire activity and intensity in the western U.S. have greatly increased, mainly due to a warming climate, population growth, land use changes, and fuel accumulation. Disastrous effects during fires include loss of human lives and infrastructure, ecosystem disturbances, and emissions of carbon dioxide and air pollutants. In addition, wildfires modify physical and chemical soil properties and can cause Fire-Induced Soil Hydrophobicity (FISH), which reduces water infiltration into the soil and accelerates runoff during precipitation events. This may induce cascading disasters including flooding, landslides, and deterioration of water quality. To predict and mitigate such disasters, FISH is generally quantified at a few fire-affected locations using a manual infiltration test. However, this limited spatial coverage poorly represents FISH on a watershed scale as needed for prediction and mitigation purposes.Watershed-wide, high-resolution monitoring of FISH is only practical using airborne or satellite-based remote sensing, for example utilizing solar reflectance spectra to characterize and monitor physical and chemical properties of fire-affected soils. Such spectra depend on light scattering and absorption at the soil surface. For this study, we have sampled ash, burned, and unburned soils, fresh (0 month), 1 year, and 2 years after three recent California (US) megafires: the Dixie (2021, 3,890 km2), Caldor (2021, 897 km2), and Beckwourth Complex (2021, 428 km2) fires. We studied the optical, chemical, and physical properties of all our samples. Optical hyperspectral reflectance spectra (350–2,500 nm) were obtained using natural solar (blue sky) illumination and a spectroradiometer (ASD FieldSpec3), operated in reflectance mode.  For all three fires, the results show that 700 nm wavelength reflectance of ash samples collected 1 and 1.5 years after the fire decreased between 36% and 76% compared to that of samples collected right after the fires. Additionally, significantly higher visible reflectance has been found for unburned compared to burned soil samples in each fire region that was studied. Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) measurements were used to characterize the carbonate content of soil and ash samples demonstrating a positive relationship between carbonate content and visible reflectance, indicating a possible contribution of carbonate to the reflectance of soil/ash samples.
Empowering Pacific Island Countries against Climate Change: The Role of AI and Satellite Technology
Authors: Kim Jinjoo , Shm fakhruddin Bapon
Published: March 2024

The escalating threats of climate change, compounded by seismicity along the ring of fire, pose significant challenges to the Pacific Island Countries (PICs), making them particularly susceptible to the impacts of natural hazards. This commentary explores the potential of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and satellite technology in enhancing resilience, focusing on their application in early warning systems and response/recovery for these vulnerable regions. The integration of these digital technologies can revolutionize the way PICs predict, respond to, and recover from climate- and seismic-induced catastrophes, thereby strengthening their resilience. It also discusses the future prospects for AI and satellite technology in PICs and concludes by highlighting the importance of international cooperation to ensure that PICs can benefit from these technologies.
Extreme Event Impact Attribution: The state of the art
Authors: Noy Ilan , Stone Daithi , Uher Tomas
Published: March 2024

Extreme weather events lead to many adverse societal, economic, and environmental consequences. Anthropogenic climate change has been identified as a factor that, in many cases, increases the frequency and intensity of these weather extremes. In the last two decades, the methods of Extreme Event Attribution (EEA) have been used to quantify the extent to which climate change affected the nature of specific recent extreme weather events. More recently, these methods are being combined with socioeconomic impact data to quantify extreme weather’s impacts attributable to climate change in what we term Extreme Event Impacts Attribution (EEIA). EEIA is a quickly developing field that considers which kinds of questions about the impacts of climate change on extreme weather events we should ask, what methods are best suited to answer them, how to interpret the results these methods provide, and what purpose these results can serve. In this survey, we discuss the basic structure and methods of EEIA, review the results of the existing EEIA studies, and discuss the implications and outlook for this strand of research including its relevance for quantification of climate change costs, the Loss and Damage Fund, climate litigation, or adaptation planning.
Global climate model development to constrain the impact of airborne microplastics on climate change
Authors: McErlich Cameron , Hardacre Catherine , Revell Laura
Published: March 2024

Because they are small and lightweight, airborne microplastics can remain suspended in the atmosphere for long periods. Microplastics appear to be ubiquitous in the atmosphere, having been identified at numerous remote sites and as high as 3500 m above sea level. Previously it has been shown that airborne microplastics may contribute to climate change by absorbing and scattering light. A weak cooling effect was calculated for direct microplastic-radiation interactions, subject to large uncertainties. Recent studies have identified the presence of microplastics in cloud water collected at high altitudes, suggesting that microplastics may act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). However, laboratory studies indicate that microplastics act as ice-nucleating particles (INP). The consequences of microplastics seeding cloud formation on climate change are unknown, as global climate models do not routinely include airborne microplastics, which are essentially a new class of anthropogenic aerosol. We present plans and progress for the implementation and assessment of microplastics as an aerosol species within GLOMAP-mode, the aerosol scheme used in the United Kingdom Chemistry & Aerosols (UKCA) component model of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1.1). We aim to model microplastic-cloud interactions and their effect on climate so that together with microplastic-radiation interactions, the full effects of airborne microplastics on climate can be accounted for. 
Tropical Pacific Quasi-Decadal Variability Suppressed by Submesoscale Eddies 
Authors: Qu Yushan , Wang Shengpeng , Jing Zhao , Zhang Yu , Wang Hong , Wu Lixin
Published: March 2024

Tropical Pacific quasi-decadal (TPQD) climate variability is characterized by quasi-decadal sea surface temperature variations in the central Pacific. This low-frequency climate variability is suggested to influence extreme regional weather and substantially impact global climate patterns and associated socio-economy through teleconnections. Previous studies mostly attributed the TPQD climate variability to basin-scale air-sea coupling processes. However, due to the coarse resolution of the majority of the observations and climate models, the role of sub-basin-scale processes in modulating the TPQD climate variability is still unclear. Using a long-term high-resolution global climate model, we find that energetic small-scale motions with horizontal scales from tens to hundreds of kilometers (loosely referred to as equatorial submesoscale eddies) act as an important damping effect to retard the TPQD variability. During the positive TPQD events, compound increasing precipitation and warming SST in the equatorial Pacific intensifies the upper ocean stratification and weakens the temperature fronts along the Pacific cold tongue. This suppresses the growth of submesoscale eddies as well as their associated upward vertical heat transport by inhibiting baroclinic instability and frontogenesis; Conversely, during the negative TPQD events, the opposite is true. Using a series of coupled global climate models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 with different oceanic resolutions, we show that the amplitude of the TPQD variability becomes smaller as the oceanic resolution becomes finer, providing evidence for the impacts of submesoscale eddies on damping the TPQD variability. Our study suggests that explicitly simulating equatorial submesoscale eddies is necessary for gaining a more robust understanding of low-frequency tropical climate variability.
Reconstructing the history of landslides in northern Japan through dendrogeomorphology
Authors: Kawakami Reona , Tsou Ching-Ying , Ishikawa Yukio , Matsumoto Ami , Ogita Shigeru , Hayashi Kazunori , Kuriyama Daisuke
Published: March 2024

Dendrogeomorphology serves as a method to determine the timing of historical landslide events. This approach entails scrutinizing the spatial and temporal aspects of landslide occurrences by investigating their impact on tree growth by analyzing variations in tree-ring width, recovery timeline of injured tree stem, as well as the age of tree invasion and establishment in areas affected by landsliding. The method's advantage lies in its capacity to yield a large number of samples where trees are growing. This study encompasses research conducted in both the Sansukezawa landslide in Aomori Prefecture and the Kamitokitozawa landslide in Akita Prefecture, Japan. The examination includes an analysis of the reactions of a combined total of 187 tilted deciduous broadleaved trees and coniferous trees aged between 100 and 102 years in response to landslide events. The findings, revealed by variations in tree-ring width, suggested multiple landslide occurrences at the Sansukezawa landslide between 1901 and 2000. The magnitude of these events varied, encompassing localized activities such as the enlargement of landslide scarps to more extensive landslide movements. In the Kamitokitozawa landslide area, the development of impending landslide events, inferred from the recovery timeline of injured tree stems, included scarp expansion. There were five instances of landslide activities recorded during the period from 1999 to 2019.
Deciphering the connections between extreme precipitation events, atmospheric moisture transport, and associated synoptic features over India
Authors: Raghuvanshi Akash Singh , Agarwal Ankit
Published: March 2024

The physical mechanisms underlying extreme precipitation events linked to atmospheric moisture transport (IVT-P) are investigated in this study. It investigates changes in synoptic-scale weather patterns over the Indian subcontinent and identifies regions where IVT influences extreme precipitation. The study discovers a strong relationship between daily IVT and precipitation over the core monsoon region and the complex terrains of the Western Ghats and Himalayas. Event Coincidence Analysis reveals that extreme IVT can be used to forecast extreme precipitation in these regions. The dynamic component of moisture transport has a strong influence on daily and extreme precipitation over complex terrains. In contrast, the thermodynamic component has an influence on precipitation over regions with an abundance of water vapor and weak horizontal winds. The study also identifies synoptic features and moisture transport ahead of IVT-P events and finds intense low-pressure anomalies, the transition from ridge to trough patterns, and intense 700 hPa relative humidity in the specified regions. Overall, the study provides insights into the physical mechanisms underlying IVT-linked extreme precipitation events.
The potential impact of climate tipping points on drinking water supply planning and management in Europe
Authors: van Thienen Peter , ter Maat Herbert , Stofberg Sija
Published: March 2024

In recent decades, substantial advancements have been achieved in state-of-the-art climate models, signifying commendable progress by the scientific community. These models have proven invaluable in comprehending and forecasting anthropogenic climate change. Nevertheless, their efficacy is limited when examining the intricate dynamics of tipping elements and their potential ramifications for overall climate stability. This limitation results in the absence of these tipping elements in widely adopted climate projections utilized by the drinking water industry to assess system resilience.Despite the prevailing insufficiencies, there is a growing body of evidence indicating the existence and, conceivably, the imminent activation of certain tipping elements. The drinking water sector, characterized by its inherently slow-paced nature due to infrastructure designed for extended operational lifespans, faces a critical challenge. The rapid timescales associated with potential changes resulting from tipping element activations surpass the typical lifespan of drinking water infrastructure. Consequently, the water sector cannot afford to wait for scientific consensus to emerge.This contribution asserts that climate tipping points pose a latent, underexplored, and potentially underestimated risk for the water sector. To address this concern, we introduce a straightforward model that explores potential magnitudes and timescales of abrupt climate changes linked to tipping element activations. Our investigation focuses on Europe, aiming to scrutinize the effects and consequences on drinking water supply. Specifically, we incorporate an assessment of the potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, deemed most pertinent for Europe based on projected effects, associated timescales, and implications for the water sector.Our findings underscore the necessity of integrating tipping scenarios into the decision-making processes within the drinking water sector, given the profound uncertainty and far-reaching consequences associated with these events.
Ocean tides from SWOT: insights in complex coastal regions
Authors: Hart-Davis Michael , Schwatke Christian , Andersen Ole , Ray Richard , Zaron Edward , Bonaduce Antonio , Borck Hilde Sande , Dettmering Denise
Published: March 2024

Studying ocean tides from satellite altimetry has traditionally been difficult in coastal regions, mainly due to the complexity of tides in these regions, limited spatial coverage, and land contamination of the radar returns. The Cal/Val phase and the science orbit phase of SWOT provide unique observations which can be exploited for tidal analysis. The nadir data provided by this mission complements other traditional altimetry missions and will serve the refinement of global ocean tide models well in future studies. The KaRIn data, however, is beneficial for evaluating the spatial variability of ocean tides at much smaller scales than previously possible from altimetry or in-situ measurements. In addition, areas very close to the shoreline can also be monitored. Analysing tides in complex coastal regions, such as fjords and inlets, is now also possible thanks to the increased spatial coverage of SWOT. This presentation evaluates the pixel cloud data of the hydrological product and the ocean product provided by SWOT in three regions. These regions are selected to provide examples of the usefulness of these data in very complex environments. The regions are as follows:The Bristol Channel, on the west coast of the UK.
The Sognefjord along the west coast of Norway.
The Long Island Sound on the east coast of the USA.
These regions have relatively large tidal ranges and have been challenging for conventional altimetry, resulting in reduced accuracy in available ocean tide models. These regions are also well covered by in-situ measurements and are either covered by the Cal/Val phase or the nominal orbit of the SWOT mission. The resultant estimations will be contrasted with in-situ measurements and state-of-the-art global models.
A survey of methane point source emissions from coal mines in Shanxi province of China using AHSI on board Gaofen-5B
Authors: He Zhonghua , Zeng Zhao-cheng , Gao Ling , Liang Miao
Published: March 2024

Satellite-based detection of methane (CH4) point sources is crucial in identifying and mitigating anthropogenic emissions of CH4, a potent greenhouse gas. Previous studies have indicated the presence of CH4 point source emissions from coal mines in Shanxi, China, an important source region with large CH4 emissions, but a comprehensive survey has remained elusive. This study aims to conduct a survey of CH4 point sources over Shanxi's coal mines based on observations of the Advanced HyperSpectral Imager (AHSI) on board the Gaofen-5B satellite (GF-5B/AHSI) between 2021 and 2023. The spectral shift in center wavelength and change in full-width-half-maximum (FWHM) are estimated for all spectra channels, which are used as inputs for retrieving the enhancement of column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of CH4 (ΔXCH4) using a matched-filter based algorithm. Our results show that the spectral calibration on GF-5B/AHSI reduced estimation biases of emission flux rate by up to 5.0%. We applied the flood-fill algorithm to automatically extract emission plumes from ΔXCH4 maps. We adopted the integrated mass enhancement (IME) model to estimate the emission flux rate values from each CH4 point source. Consequently, we detected CH4 point sources in 32 coal mines with 93 plume events in Shanxi province. The estimated emission flux rate ranges from 857.67 ± 207.34 kg·h-1 to 14333.02 ± 5249.32 kg·h-1. The total emission flux rate reaches 13.26 t·h-1 in Shanxi, assuming all point sources emit simultaneously. Our results show that wind speed is the dominant source of uncertainty contributing about 84.84% to the total uncertainty in emission flux rate estimation. Interestingly, we found a number of false positive detections due to solar panels that are widely spread in Shanxi. This study also evaluates the accuracy of wind fields in ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis by comparing with ground-based meteorological station. We found large discrepancy, especially in wind direction, suggesting incorporating local meteorological measurements into the study CH4 point source are important to achieve high accuracy. The study demonstrates that GF-5B/AHSI possesses capabilities for monitoring large CH4 point sources over complex surface characteristics in Shanxi. 
Modelling the collision of streamers using the AMReX framework
Authors: Köhn Christoph , Jara Angel Ricardo , Westermann Morten Jung , Gammelmark Mathias , Fangel-Lloyd Elloise
Published: March 2024

Streamers, precursors of the hot, long lightning leaders, are small filamentary discharges with high electric fields at their tips. Experiments of laboratory discharges have shown that streamers in their corona can approach each other and it has been suggested that such collisions enhance the electric field in-between beyond the thermal runaway electric field accelerating electrons to the runaway regime thus generating X-rays. Streamer collision also plays a role in the interaction of wind turbine blades with lightning when streamers locally incept from the surface of blades and attract the downward moving lightning leader. Despite the relevance of streamer collisions in the runaway process or their role in the interaction of lightning with wind turbine blades, there have only been a few numerical studies due to computational limitations. We have therefore developed a novel 3D fluid model for streamer propagation implemented in the AMREX framework. AMREX allows us to solve drift-diffusion and Poisson equation using parallelization and GPU support to accelerate the block structured adaptive mesh refinement. We will present details of the implementation as well as a parameter study on typical streamer parameters (electron density, electric field, tip width and velocity,…) during streamer collision in various ambient fields and for various initial electron densities. We will also study various geometries with different displacements of the initial electrons perpendicular to the ambient electric field. Finally, we will interpret our results with respect to the runaway process and wind turbine-lightning interaction.
Quantifying the Effect of Urban Heat Advection using Crowd Weather Stations
Authors: Kittner Jonas , Fenner Daniel , Demuzere Matthias , Bechtel Benjamin
Published: March 2024

Detailed measurements are indispensable in order to understand small-scale urban climate effects. With professional weather stations (PWS) mostly being available outside of cities with few sites per city, alternative data sources such as crowd-sourced weather data have proven to be valuable. Often the Urban Heat Island (UHI) is studied under ideal calm conditions when its development is strongest. At the same time, it has been shown that wind leads to advection of urban air, impacting regions downwind of urban areas and within the city.We aim to provide insights into the effects of Urban Heat Advection (UHA) in the Urban Canopy Layer (UCL). The metropolitan regions of Paris and Berlin were studied, using four years (2019 - 2022) of quality-controlled crowdsourced air-temperature data from thousands of privately-owned Crowd Weather Stations (CWS). Those data were combined with global ERA5-Land data to overcome gaps in rural CWS coverage and globally-available Local Climate Zone (LCZ) information.It is shown that wind causes increased exposure to urban heat for areas located downwind of the city core, which was derived using a LCZ-weighted centroid detection. For all observed wind directions, classified by dynamically moving wind sectors, differences in spatial patterns were visible with the effect being strongest with regional wind speeds of 3 m·s−1. The results highlight the importance of considering the effects of UHA when studying the UHI to avoid underestimating the exposure to urban heat in downwind areas of the city. The results could be used as a starting point for coupling the conditions in the Atmospheric Boundary Layer with the resulting conditions in the UCL, utilizing a large database with crowdsourced CWS data.
Dunes on the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau as influenced by climate change: a remote sensing study of the past 5 decades 
Authors: Dörwald Lukas , Lehmkuhl Frank , Walk Janek , Yang Xiaoping , Zhang Deguo , Baas Andreas , Delobel Lucie , Boemke Bruno , Stauch Georg
Published: March 2024

Dunes react quickly to climatic changes, with the main drivers being the dominating wind regime (e.g. magnitude and direction), precipitation, and temperature. Further, human impact can alter dune movement by fixation of active dunes through greening projects, or reactivation of stationary ones through overgrazing by animals. The north-eastern Tibetan Plateau shows a high variability of climatic parameters like wind, temperature, and precipitation within a high elevation environment, situated between the mid-latitude westerlies and the East Asian Summer monsoon. The presented studies asses active barchan dunes in different climatic settings, from the arid southern margins of the Badain Jaran Desert, to the humid Zoige Basin.Since climate stations on the Tibetan Plateau are rare and their measurements often cover only a short time span, climatic changes were studied from ERA-5 reanalysis data, dating back to the 1950s. These metrics were processed via cloud computing, using Google Earth Engine, and were then compared to dune migration rates, which were deduced from optical satellite imagery. Here, the CORONA KH-4B images from the late 1960s, the Landsat archives, and up-to-date high resolution data (GeoEye and WorldView) were used. The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) was implemented to observe changes in vegetation. As a newly tested metric, dune field density changes were calculated, in order to investigate dynamics of dense dune field setting.Over 500 dunes were mapped and analyzed in total within four focus-areas for comparative purposes. The results highlight a wide range of different behavioral patterns of dunes within the environment of the north-eastern Tibetan Plateau. This showcases how dunes can be influenced by and linked to climatic changes.
Health Risk Assessment For Soil From The İzmir City Center, Western Türkiye
Authors: Kılıç Atilla , Toksoy Köksal Fatma
Published: March 2024

The geochemical characteristics of soil horizons and specific rock types in the vicinity of Izmir city center were studied for interpretation to see the possible health risk associated with geogenic control. The purpose of this study was to interpret and assess the potential health risks associated with geogenic control. A total of 140 samples, consisting of 60 soil sites representing various soil horizons and 48 rock sites located in the İzmir city center, were collected for geochemical analysis using the ICP-MS method. The presence of potentially toxic elements (PTE) including As, Ba, Be, Cd, Co, Pb, Mo, Ni, Sb, Se, Sn, and Zn were identified, posing potential health risks. Therefore, the values of contamination factor (CF), geo-accumulation index (Igeo), pollution load index (PLI), as well as health risk factors for adults and children (carcinogenic risk and hazard index) are computed.The risk factor findings demonstrate that certain areas in the city center of İzmir pose carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic health risks to various segments of the population, encompassing both children and adults. For children, the median HI value is 0.95 (lower than unity) and the mean value is 2.02 (greater than unity). The median carcinogenic risk value for children exceeds the risk threshold of 10-4, measuring at 2.06x10-4, while the mean carcinogenic risk value stands at 7.32x10-4. Elemental contributions for hazard index are mainly caused by As, Co, Pb and Sb, for risk As, Be and Ni and Pb.The correlation between the source of PTE in soil levels and the geochemical results of rock samples from the city center suggests a potential link between contamination and geogenic effects. Keywords: Medical geology, health risk, toxic elements, arsenic enrichment, Western Anatolia.
Topographic forcing of estuarine channel networks by fixed banks
Authors: Nota Eise , van Amstel Brechtje , Muller Janneke , Beyaard Lotta , Upson Meryem , Wagenaar Menno , van Amelsfort Esmee , van Maarseveen Marcel , Kleinhans Maarten
Published: March 2024

Sandy estuaries are characterized by braided channel networks with continuously shifting channels and bars induced by tidal currents. Many estuaries have planforms confined by bedrock or human structures, which can topographically force local morphology by suppressing channel and sandbar migration. To what degree topographic forcing determines channel pattern and mobility is poorly understood, because it is challenging to obtain sufficient temporal and spatial data to completely grasp the timescales at which the morphology changes. In this study, we therefore acquired large temporal datasets through conducting scale experiments of sandy estuaries in the periodically tilting tidal flume, the Metronome. We conducted several experiments with initial flat beds and fixed banks of different configurations using rough sandpaper, with at least one repeat experiment for each configuration, as well as a control run without fixed banks. From our data animations, we observe the formation of topographically forced sandbars as well as channel scours at fixed banks that are consistent between repeat experiments. Moreover, we discovered quasi-periodic formation and disappearance of non-forced sandbars and channels. For one fixed embankment configuration, the channel network rapidly shifted between three stable states, suggesting that aspects of the system morphodynamics may be described by coupled oscillators. Repeat experiments exhibit notable differences in periodicity of this cyclic behaviour, implying sensitivity of the complex system dynamics to initial conditions. These results confirm suspicions based on observations and linear stability analyses that shifting between alternative quasi-stable states can happen in estuaries, which provides a major challenge for field observations and numerical modelling of the dynamics of natural estuaries.
ML for weather prediction at Météo-France : current status and future plans
Authors: Raynaud Laure , Brochet Clément , Moldovan Gabriel
Published: March 2024

Applications of Machine Learning (ML) in the different stages of weather forecasting have considerably developed recently. Such progress is likely to change the landscape and offer new perspectives to speed up and improve forecast performances, at different spatio-temporal scales. In this context, Météo-France engaged more actively in this new area of research, with the objective to further explore the capabilities and opportunities of ML for operational forecasting. Major ongoing projects include ML to significantly enhance the size of convective-scale ensemble forecasts, high-resolution statistical downscaling and the development of data-driven kilometre-scale forecasting systems. Early results will be presented and our short-term roadmap will be discussed.
Co-RISK: A tool to co-create impactful university-industry projects for natural hazard risk mitigation
Authors: Hillier John K. , van Meeteren Michiel
Published: March 2024

Translation of geoscience research into tangible changes, such as modified decisions, processes or policy in the wider world is an important yet notably difficult process. Co-RISK is an accessible (i.e. open access, paper-based, zero cost) ‘toolkit’ for use by stakeholder groups within workshops, which is intended to aid this translation process. It is given a robust basis by incorporating paradox theory from organisation studies, which deals with navigating the genuine tensions between industry and research organizations that stem from their differing roles. Specifically designed to ameliorate the organizational paradox, a Co-RISK workshop draws up ‘Maps’ including key stakeholders (e.g. regulator, insurer, university) and their positionality (e.g. barriers, concerns, motivations), and identifies exactly the points where science might modify actions. Ultimately a Co-RISK workshop drafts simple and tailored project-specific frameworks that span from climate to hazard, to risk, to implications of that risk (e.g. solvency). The action research approach used to design Co-RISK (with Bank of England, Aon, Verisk), its implementation in a trial session for the insurance sector and its intellectual contribution are described and evaluated. The initial Co-RISK workshop was well received, so application is envisaged to other sectors (i.e. transport infrastructure, utilities, government).  Joint endeavours enabled by Co-RISK could fulfil the genuine need to quickly convert the latest insights from environmental research into real-world climate change adaptation strategies.  https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1251/
The vertical structure of atmospheric rivers in Antarctica in the present-day and future
Authors: Kolbe Marlen , Bintanja Richard , van der Linden Eveline C. , Cordero Raul R.
Published: March 2024

Recent extremes in Antarctic temperature, surface melt and sea ice loss have been robustly linked to the occurrence of atmospheric rivers (ARs). However, the precise mechanisms that generate variations in the surface impacts of ARs are poorly understood, especially in the Antarctic region. Based on Arctic evidence that the vertical and horizontal advancement of ARs over sea ice strongly depends on the sea ice-preceding surface type, the season, as well as meteorological conditions, we investigate the vertical structure and propagation of extreme ARs reaching sea ice and the Antarctic ice sheet, and further quantify the associated surface impacts. We further link the wind speed and surface vertical structure and proximity of ARs to variations in turbulent mixing and radiative fluxes, which ultimately determine the impact on the surface and subsequent AR pathway. While previous studies have mostly detected ARs based on  observations and reanalyses, we additionally assess AR characteristics based on 6 CMIP6 models under present-day and future conditions (SSP5-8.5) to robustly study their propagation and impacts when reaching Antarctic sea ice and the ice sheet. 
Discover Advanced Mobile Leak Detection (AMLD) - Natural Gas Leak Surveys Utilitzing Mid-IR Open Path TDLAS 
Authors: Wehnert Paul , Six Eric
Published: March 2024

The Heath Discover – Advanced Mobile Leak Detection (AMLD) is an ultra-sensitive advanced technology capable of detecting natural gas leaks or emissions from a remote distance while driving on a street or right of way. It allows the user to cover large areas for compliance or emission surveys and provides reports and GIS data with breadcrumb trail on a Windows-based tablet app.The Discover AMLD employs a mid-IR open path version of the proven TDLAS technology which has been used in other Heath Products such as RMLD-CS. It uses two Mid-Infrared Lasers, one each for Methane and Ethane, that pass through the air in front of the vehicle. As the lasers pass through a gas plume, the methane and ethane absorb a portion of the light, which the instrument detects. Based on the local meteorological conditions, a given amount of gas escaping from the ground will produce a plume that varies in size and uniformity of concentration levels. The plume, by nature is variable and dependent on the soil type, moisture, temperature, wind, venting and leak rate.The Discover AMLD technology is already employed at 4 major gas utilities 2 domestic and 2 international and is being used to find real world leaks and disaster-based surveys. It is helping to distinguish between sewer/Biogas leak and pipeline leaks and is able to localize and quantify the methane emissions. The technology was demonstrated in real world conditions at more than 50 domestic and international gas utilities with excellent results. METEC facility at Colorado State University has done extensive testing and confirmed the efficacy and accuracy of the technology in its ability to find, localize & quantify emissions. This is helping utilities rapidly find leaks and reduce methane emissions to keep communities safe and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.The technology was developed and commercialized by Heath Products division by connecting with research scientists at Physical Sciences Incorporation a premier research organization based in Massachusetts and utilizing their most innovative ideas and bring them to life. By using their TDLAS technology and adopting it to an open path vehicle mountable system that can be very versatile and completely wireless without the need to modify the vehicle, Heath engineers and technicians were able make it into a manufacturable product and make it available commercially in the last quarter of 2022. Since then, the product has been demonstrated and has impressed the technology evaluation laboratories of gas utilities and academia with its real-world prowess in rapidly discovering methane emissions and improving productivity of surveys by a multiplier of 4 or more. We believe that this will be a game changing technology that will help utilities in making their operations safer, build trust with communities and make environmentally friendly energy available to hundreds of millions of people.
The Effects of Mesoscale Eddies on Southern Ocean Carbon and Biogeochemistry
Authors: Keppler Lydia , Mazloff Matthew , Verdy Ariane , Gille Sarah , Talley Lynne , Eddebbar Yassir , Tamsitt Veronica , Guisewhite Nicola
Published: March 2024

The Southern Ocean modulates global biogeochemical (BGC) cycles substantially, affecting biological production and the global air-sea balance of carbon dioxide and interior dissolved oxygen content. Concurrently, the Southern Ocean is rich in highly dynamic mesoscale eddies. These eddies have the potential to alter local carbon, nutrient, and oxygen distributions through eddy pumping, stirring, and trapping. Additionally, the strong westerly winds could result in significant eddy-induced Ekman pumping counteracting the eddy pumping effects. However, the impact of mesoscale eddies on upper-ocean Southern Ocean biogeochemistry has not been quantified observationally at a regional scale.We now have nearly a decade of BGC observations from Argo floats deployed as part of the Southern Ocean Carbon and Climate Observations and Modeling project (SOCCOM). In addition, the Mesoscale Eddy Trajectory Atlas, version 3.2, delayed time (Meta3.2DT) database provides us with a robust assessment of eddies as detected by satellite altimeter measurements. Together, the two datasets allow us to investigate the three-dimensional structure of the biogeochemistry in Southern Ocean eddies. Here, we co-locate Southern Ocean eddies with BGC Argo floats to characterize composite vertical and horizontal structures of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), oxygen, and nitrate inside anticyclonic and cyclonic eddies compared to the mean climatological fields. We conduct this analysis in several subregions with different dominant processes. We find positive DIC and nitrate anomalies in cyclonic eddies, which we attribute to upward eddy pumping. We also find positive oxygen anomalies near the surface, which we attribute to upwelled nutrients that enhance biological production, leading to enhanced photosynthesis. At depth, we find negative oxygen anomalies in cyclonic eddies, which may be driven both by enhanced respiration due to increased biological production as well as the heaving of isopycnals via eddy pumping. The opposite is true for anticyclonic eddies due to downward eddy pumping (negative DIC and nitrate anomalies; negative oxygen anomalies near the surface and positive oxygen anomalies at depth). The magnitudes of the eddy imprints on biogeochemistry vary by region, indicating that stratification and other background signals influence the magnitude of the effect of eddies in a region. Our findings can help us to interpret the influence of mesoscale eddies on the Southern Ocean carbon fluxes and biogeochemistry, including assessing the relative dominance of eddy pumping and eddy-induced Ekman pumping in different subregions of the Southern Ocean.
Monitoring of water area in the dry season of East Dongting Lake Wetland from 2022 to 2023 based on Google Earth Engine
Authors: Chen Leishi , Deng Jianbo , Han Qinzhe , Sui Bing
Published: March 2024

Wetlands have functions such as hydrological regulation, water purification, and climate regulation. However, under the dual influence of global climate change and human activities, the frequency and intensity of wetland ecological droughts are increasing, leading to shrinkage of wetland area and decline in ecological service functions, seriously threatening wetland ecological security. The East Dongting Lake Wetland is located in Hunan, China. According to the observation results of the Chenglingji Water Level Station, from August 2, 2022 to June 5, 2023, it entered an abnormal dry period of 305 days, which is the longest dry period since observation records began. Our goal is to understand the changes in water distribution in East Dongting Lake during this period based on satellite images.We used the Sentinel-1 GRD data provided on Google Earth Engine and developed a water area monitoring module based on the OTSU method, which provided us with water distribution data of the East Dongting Lake wetland during the target period. There are 44 available Sentinel-1 GRD images in these 305 days. The average water area in the dry season calculated from the 44 images is 230.75 square kilometers. In contrast, there were 49 available images in the same period of the previous year, and the average water area was 486.32 square kilometers. The average water area in the same period of the previous year was even larger than the maximum water area of 369.06 square kilometers during the target period. This reflects the continued impact of the severe drought in China's Yangtze River Basin in the second half of 2022 on the East Dongting Lake wetland.We analyzed the water distribution results on August 20, 2022, when the drought was severe. The results showed that contiguous exposed lake beds were exposed in the north and south of the main lake body of East Dongting Lake, and the main flood channel even experienced drying out. Drought has affected the core area of the East Dongting Lake Wetland, causing the water level to drop rapidly into the dry season, resulting in rapid changes in the spatial distribution of the Dongting Lake Wetland's shoals and water bodies. The advance of the dry season mainly affects the seasonal growth of wetland vegetation, including submersed plants (Echinacea, etc.), floating-leaf plants (Rhombus, etc.), emergent plants (Reeds, Typha, etc.), swampy meadows (Carex etc.) and swamp grasses (Nandi, etc.). The drought has even affected the habitat of elk and has had a complex impact on wetland ecology.
A Wetting-Front Model for Vadose Zone Infiltration via Drywells
Authors: Moreno Ziv , Paster Amir , Kamai Tamir
Published: March 2024

Drywell infiltration is a common approach to recharge groundwater and reduce load from drainage systems. Due to rapid acceleration in urban developments, as well as climate change that predicts an increase in frequencies and magnitude of extreme precipitation events in the Mediterranean area, it is critical to predict the drywell infiltration capacity, i.e., its response to anticipated precipitation events. The infiltration capacity of a drywell is mainly determined by the geometrical parameters, i.e., diameter and depth, and the soil hydraulic parameters, i.e., hydraulic conductivity, porosity, and water retention. Predictions of drywell infiltration capacity are commonly conducted using models that solve the unsaturated flow in the subsurface using complex and costly numerical schemes. This work proposes a different approach based on a semi-analytical model that relies on a sharp interface wetting front assumption. The proposed model can predict the water levels in the well and the subsurface wetting front location during and after an infiltration event. The semi-analytical model was tested and compared with numerical simulations of Richards' equation and with data from a field experiment and proved to be sufficiently accurate. The typical run times of the semi-analytical model are smaller than 1 second and about three orders of magnitude shorter than the numerical model of Richards' equation. The field data was further utilized to calibrate the soil hydraulic properties by matching the semi-analytical model's outcomes to the measured water levels in the well. A sensitivity analysis of the drywell response to variable hydraulic properties, climatic scenarios, and well configurations (depth and diameter) was conducted, demonstrating some practical applications for analysis, which may be used for adequately determining site-specific drywell design.