bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Precipitation climatology over Mediterranean Basin from ten years of TRMM measurements
Authors: Mehta A. V. , Yang S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Climatological features of mesoscale rain activities over the Mediterranean region between 5° W–40° E and 28° N–48° N are examined using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 and 2A25 rain products. The 3B42 rainrates at 3-hourly, 0.25°×0.25° spatial resolution for the last 10 years (January 1998 to July 2007) are used to form and analyze the 5-day mean and monthly mean climatology of rainfall. Results show considerable regional and seasonal differences of rainfall over the Mediterranean Region. The maximum rainfall (3–5 mm day−1) occurs over the mountain regions of Europe, while the minimum rainfall is observed over North Africa (~0.5 mm day−1). The main rainy season over the Mediterranean Sea extends from October to March, with maximum rainfall occurring during November–December. Over the Mediterranean Sea, an average rainrate of ~1–2 mm day−1 is observed, but during the rainy season there is 20% larger rainfall over the western Mediterranean Sea than that over the eastern Mediterranean Sea. During the rainy season, mesoscale rain systems generally propagate from west to east and from north to south over the Mediterranean region, likely to be associated with Mediterranean cyclonic disturbances resulting from interactions among large-scale circulation, orography, and land-sea temperature contrast.
A global comparison of four potential evapotranspiration equations and their relevance to stream flow modelling in semi-arid environments
Authors: Weiß M. , Menzel L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This study compares four different potential evapotranspiration equations according to Priestley Taylor, Kimberly Penman, Penman Monteith (FAO-56) and Hargreaves on a global basis to demonstrate their difference, and assess their impact on the calculation of stream flows. The various equations of potential evapotranspiration show great differences in magnitude. But due to the limited availability of validation data, it is difficult to assess which method is the physically most reasonable to be applied. According to this study, the radiation-based Priestley Taylor equation proved to be most suitable for a global application. For the calculation of stream flows, however, the processes involved in the derivation of actual evapotranspiration values from potential evapotranspiration values appear more relevant than the absolute value of the potential evapotranspiration itself.
Estimation of ungauged Bahr el Jebel flows based on upstream water levels and large scale spatial rainfall data
Authors: Petersen G. , Bast H. , Fohrer N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The study derives Bahr el Jebel flow data at Mongalla, combining upstream flow from Lake Albert and torrential runoff derived from the Collaborative Historical African Rainfall Model (CHARM) rainfall data in the catchment between Lake Albert and Mongalla using GIS techniques. The results provide an updated rating curve for Lake Albert outflows and currently unavailable flow data at Mongalla, the entry to the Sudd swamp, with a high level of confidence for the period after 1983; data which are essential for detailed hydrological assessments of the swamp system with its significant importance for the economies and lives of people in the area.
Historical damage pattern and causes of differential damage: an approach based on combining geophysical prospecting, geological and historical-technical data
Authors: Gizzi F. T. , Lapenna V. , Masini N. , Rizzo E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We describe a multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary method to analyse the causes of differential macroseismic effects caused by an earthquake in a historical town. We illustrate the method with a case study based on analysing the damage caused by the 1930 Irpinia earthquake (Me=6.7) in Melfi, a town in southern Italy. A damage pattern map was already available for this site. To understand the anomalies of Melfi damage, we used an integrated approach that combines geological surveys, geophysical prospecting and analysis of unpublished technical-historical data. Geo-electrical prospecting was adopted to infer the geological set-up and to estimate the thickness of shallow deposits. The results of the geophysical surveys were compared with detailed geological information derived from both in situ surveys and boreholes. Finally, cross-correlation among these data and technical reports coeval to the earthquake allowed us to create a complete picture of the possible causes of uneven damage.
Scale effect in hazard assessment - application to daily rainfall
Authors: Pawlowsky-Glahn V. , Tolosana-Delgado R. , Egozcue J. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Daily precipitation is recorded as the total amount of water collected by a rain-gauge in 24h. Events are modelled as a Poisson process and the 24h precipitation by a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) of excesses. Hazard assessment is complete when estimates of the Poisson rate and the distribution parameters, together with a measure of their uncertainty, are obtained. The shape parameter of the GPD determines the support of the variable: Weibull domain of attraction (DA) corresponds to finite support variables, as should be for natural phenomena. However, Fréchet DA has been reported for daily precipitation, which implies an infinite support and a heavy-tailed distribution. We use the fact that a log-scale is better suited to the type of variable analyzed to overcome this inconsistency, thus showing that using the appropriate natural scale can be extremely important for proper hazard assessment. The approach is illustrated with precipitation data from the Eastern coast of the Iberian Peninsula affected by severe convective precipitation. The estimation is carried out by using Bayesian techniques.
The geological record of storm events over the last 1000 years in the Salerno Bay (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea): new proxy evidences
Authors: Budillon F. , Esposito E. , Iorio M. , Pelosi N. , Porfido S. , Violante C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The shallow marine Late Holocene wedge of the northern Salerno Bay shelf (Southern Tyrrhenian Sea) discloses the presence of four decimetric shelf-tapering sand beds. Their internal features, depicted by cores analysis and their stratigraphic position, revealed by VHR seismic investigations, inferred sandy layers as being the result of flash deposition, storm controlled, thus episodic. Stratigraphic correlations among cores lead to constrain sandy layers deposition to storm events falling in the 11th, 16th, 19th and 20th centuries. A certain attribution of the most recent event bed to the major cloudburst that hit the Salerno region in 1954A.D. and resulted in a disastrous flood of the Bonea stream, was formerly achieved. A tentative link with two sea-storms that occurred in the 1544A.D. and in the 1879A.D. and well documented by historical sources is here proposed to explain the deposition of the two previous event beds. The deposition of these sandy layers must be related to major storm events, since their preservation in the stratigraphic record is not common. Lithostratigraphic and textural differences between flood and sea-storm emplacement emerge from the study of sandy layers in cores and point to a prevalence of sea-storm deposits in the middle shelf compared to flood deposits. Seismic stratigraphic evidence lead us to suppose that the style of episodic flash deposition has been running on for the last 2-3kyr and is probably linked to a climatic trend of the region.
Tracking cyclones in regional model data: the future of Mediterranean storms
Authors: Muskulus M. , Jacob D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. With the advent of regional climate modelling, there are high-resolution data available for regional climatological change studies. Automatic tracking of cyclones in these datasets encounters problems with high spatial resolution due to cyclone substructure. Watershed segmentation, a technique from image analysis, has been used to obtain estimates for the spatial extent of cyclones, enabling better tracking and precipitation analysis. In this study we have used data from a 0.5° Regional Model (REMO) climatological model run for the period from 1961-2099, following the International Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC SRES) B2 forcing. The resulting hourly mean sea level pressure (MSLP) fields have been analysed for cyclone numbers and tracks in the Mediterranean region. According to the results, the total number of cyclones in the Mediterranean seems to be increasing in the future, in spite of a general decrease of the numbers of stronger systems. In Summer, the increase in each gridbox seems to be proportional to the total number of cyclones in that box, whereas in Winter there is a slight proportional decrease. As concerns track properties and precipitation estimates along tracks, no significant change could be detected.
Assessment and tuning of the behaviour of a microphysical characterisation scheme
Authors: Galletti M. , Alberoni P. P. , Levizzani V. ,   Celano
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The correct classification of prevailing bulk hydrometeor type within a radar resolution volume is a challenge task even if a full set of polarimetric radar observables is available. Indeed scattering and propagation effects from the variety of hydrometeors present interact each others and sometimes, if not often, tend to obscure the characteristic signature of each weather radar target type. This consideration is enforced when the atmospheric volume is sampled with a wavelength where both Mie scattering effects and attenuation start to become relevant. In this paper, we utilize the hydrometeor classification scheme developed at the National Severe Storms Laboratory (USA). Briefly, the scheme uses a fuzzy logic approach to combine different polarimetric variables and environmental temperature in order to determine the most likely type of prevalent hydrometeor in the radar volume. This means that the resulting classification is based on two characteristics: the volume polarimetric responses and the thermal value. The relative balance between these two is managed through the coefficients in the fuzzy scheme. We have observed that these parameters are crucial in order to get "physical reasonable result", independently from the meteorological character of the event investigated. Our work is based on a reduced set of polarimetric variables (Z and ZDR) as input. Data used in this study were collected by a C-band radar over weather events ranging from convective to stratiform.
Sampling errors in rainfall measurements by weather radar
Authors: Piccolo F. , Chirico G. B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Radar rainfall data are affected by several types of error. Beside the error in the measurement of the rainfall reflectivity and its transformation into rainfall intensity, random errors can be generated by the temporal spacing of the radar scans. The aim of this work is to analize the sensitivity of the estimated rainfall maps to the radar sampling interval, i.e. the time interval between two consecutive radar scans. This analysis has been performed employing data collected with a polarimetric C-band radar in Rome, Italy. The radar data consist of reflectivity maps with a sampling interval of 1min and a spatial resolution of 300m, covering an area of 1296km2. The transformation of the reflectivity maps in rainfall fields has been validated against rainfall data collected by a network of 14 raingauges distributed across the study area. Accumulated rainfall maps have been calculated for different spatial resolutions (from 300m to 2400m) and different sampling intervals (from 1min to 16min). The observed differences between the estimated rainfall maps are significant, showing that the sampling interval can be an important source of error in radar rainfall measurements.
Natural risk assessment and decision planning for disaster mitigation
Authors: Fiorucci P. , Gaetani F. , Minciardi R. , Trasforini E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper, decisional models are introduced aiming at defining a general framework for natural disaster mitigation. More specifically, an integrated approach based on system modelling and optimal resource assignment is presented in order to support the decision makers in pre-operational and real-time management of forest fire emergencies. Some strategies for pre-operative and real time risk management will be described and formalized as optimal resource assignment problems. To this end, some models capable to describe the resources dynamics will be introduced, both in pre-operative phase and in real-time phase.
Observation and analysis of etesian wind storms in the Saroniko Gulf
Authors: Pezzoli A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The purpose of this work is to study the Etesian winds in the Saroniko Gulf to understand the complicate physical processes that generate the windstorms in the Saroniko Gulf. It is developed a study of the weather patterns characteristic of the Saroniko Gulf and a comparisons of the wind data measured on land by the station of Helliniko airport (years: 1990-2000) and at sea by a buoy (years: 2000-2002) during the month of August. It is presented a statistical model that shows, as a probability of occurrence, the variations of the wind speed in function of the variations of the wind direction. Finally the statistical model is compared with the RAMS limited area model during a test case in August 2004; the now-casting results obtained using these two different methods are compared to data measured by station of the automatic weather network of the HNMS.
The wind and wave atlas of the Mediterranean Sea - the calibration phase
Authors: Cavaleri L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Within the WW-Medatlas project, sponsored by the Italian, French and Greek Navies, an extensive atlas of the wind and wave conditions in the Mediterranean Sea has been completed. The atlas is based on the information derived from the archive of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, UK, then calibrated on the base of the data available from the ERS1-2 and Topex satellites. The calibration is required because the wind, hence the wave, data are normally strongly underestimated in the enclosed seas. The calibration has been done deriving the model values at each satellite position, typically at 7 km intervals. The co-located values have then been assigned to the closest grid point. This has provided a substantial number of couples of data at each point, then used to derive, by best-fitting technique, the correction required. This turns out to vary amply throughout the basin, according to the local geometry and orography. The calibration coefficients, different for wind and waves, have been used to correct the original fields and the time series at the single points. Using the calibrated data, extensive statistics have been derived, both as fields and at each point, including extreme values.
New urban area flood model: a comparison with MIKE11-quasi2d
Authors: Sole A. , Zuccaro G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Recent hydrogeological events have increased both public interest and that of the Scientific Community in a more accurate study of flooding in urban areas. The present project proposes a new model which offers an optimal integration of two models, one for flood wave propagation in riverbeds and the other for flooding in urban areas. We consider it necessary to not only treat the modelling of the outflow in riverbeds and outside riverbeds.together but to integrate them thoroughly. We simulate the propagation in riverbed of the flood event with a model solving the equations of De Saint Venant with the explicit scheme at the finite differences by McCormack. The propagation outside the riverbed is simulated using an algorithm proposed by Braschi et al. (1990). This algorithm is based on a local discretization of the urban territory, divided in a series of "tanks" and "channels". Each tank is associated with an area of an extension related to the position of the other tanks and the quantity of buildings, modelled as insurmountable obstacles. The model facilitates the simultaneous performance of the two simulations: at each instant, the quantitiy of water overflow, depending on the piezometric level in every section, is calculated as a function of the dimensions of the weirs (the banks), assuming it passes through the critical state. Then, it is transferred to the tanks placed in the surroundings of the overflow points. Those points are the starting nodes for the propagation of the flood because they are connected to the network of tanks in which the surrounding land has been schematised. In this paper, we present a comparison of one of the most powerful models of inundation simulation in urban and no-urban areas. The field area is the city of Albenga (SV, Italy) and the simulated event is the inundation of the 1994 (return period of about 25 years).
L-moments based assessment of a mixture model for frequency analysis of rainfall extremes
Authors: Tartaglia V. , Caporali E. , Cavigli E. , Moro A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the framework of the regional analysis of hydrological extreme events, a probabilistic mixture model, given by a convex combination of two Gumbel distributions, is proposed for rainfall extremes modelling. The papers concerns with statistical methodology for parameter estimation. With this aim, theoretical expressions of the L-moments of the mixture model are here defined. The expressions have been tested on the time series of the annual maximum height of daily rainfall recorded in Tuscany (central Italy).
Impact of a high density GPS network on the operational forecast
Authors: Faccani C. , Ferretti R. , Pacione R. , Paolucci T. , Vespe F. , Cucurull L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Global Positioning System Zenith Total Delay (GPS ZTD) can provide information about the water vapour in atmosphere. Its assimilation into the analysis used to initialize a model can then improve the weather forecast, giving the right amount of moisture and reducing the model spinup. In the last year, an high density GPS network has been created on the Basilicata region (south of Italy) by the Italian Space Agency in the framework of a national project named MAGIC2. MAGIC2 is the Italian follow on of the EC project MAGIC has. Daily operational data assimilation experiments are performed since December 2003. The results show that the assimilation of GPS ZTD improves the forecast especially during the transition from winter to spring even if a no very high model resolution (9km) is used.
Preliminary analysis of distributed in situ soil moisture measurements
Authors: Brocca L. , Galli M. , Stelluti M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Surface soil moisture content is highly variable in both space and time. Remote sensing can provide an effective methodology for mapping surface moisture content over large areas but ground based measurements are required to test its reliability and to calibrate retrieval algorithms. Recently, we had the opportunity to design and perform an experiment aimed at jointly acquiring measurements of surface soil water content at various locations and remotely sensed hyperspectral data. The area selected for the experiment is located in central Umbria and it extends for 90km2. For the area, detailed lithological and multi-temporal landslide inventory maps were available. We identified eight plots where measurements of soil water content were made using a Time Domain Reflectometer (TDR). The plots range in size from 100m2 to 600m2, and cover a variety of topographic and morphological settings. The TDR measurements were conducted during four days, on 5 April, 15 April, 2 May and 3 May 2004. On 3 May the NERC airborne CASI 2 acquired the hyperspectral data. Preliminary analysis concerning the matching between the landslides and the soil moisture were reported. Statistical and geostatistical analysis investigating the spatial-temporal soil moisture distribution were performed. These results will be compared with the data of surface temperature obtained from the remotely sensed hyperspectral sensor.
Multivariate linear parametric models applied to daily rainfall time series
Authors: Grimaldi S. , Serinaldi F. , Tallerini C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The aim of this paper is to test the Multivariate Linear Parametric Models applied to daily rainfall series. These simple models allow to generate synthetic series preserving both the time correlation (autocorrelation) and the space correlation (crosscorrelation). To have synthetic daily series, in such a way realistic and usable, it is necessary the application of a corrective procedure, removing negative values and enforcing the no-rain probability. The following study compares some linear models each other and points out the roles of autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components as well as parameter orders and mixed parameters.
Precipitation and microphysical studies with a low cost high resolution X-band radar: an innovative project prospective
Authors: Van Baelen J. , Pointin Y. , Wobrock W. , Flossmann A. , Peters G. , Tridon F. , Planche C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper describes an innovative project which has just been launched at the "Laboratoire de Météorologie Physique" (LaMP) in Clermont-Ferrand in collaboration with the "Meteorologische Institut" in Hamburg, where a low cost X-band high resolution precipitation radar is combined with supporting measurements and a bin microphysical cloud resolving model in order to develop adapted Z–R relationships for accurate rain rate estimates over a local area such as a small catchment basin, an urban complex or even an agriculture domain. In particular, the use of K-band micro rain radars which can retrieve vertical profiles of drop size distribution and the associated reflectivity will be used to perform direct comparisons with X-band radar volume samples while a network of rain-gauges provides ground truth to which our rain estimates will be compared. Thus, the experimental suite of instrumentation should provide a detailed characterization of the various rain regimes and their associated Z–R relationship. Furthermore, we will make use of the hilly environment of the radar to test the use of novel attenuation methods in order to estimate rainfall rates. A second important aspect of this work is to use the detailed cloud modeling available at LaMP. Simulations of precipitating clouds in highly resolved 3-D dynamics model allow predicting the spectra of rain drops and precipitating ice particles. Radar reflectivity determined from these model studies will be compared with the observations in order to better understand which raindrop size spectrum shape factor should be applied to the radar algorithms as a function of the type of precipitating cloud. Likewise, these comparisons between the modeled and the observed reflectivity will also give us the opportunity to further improve our model microphysics and the parameterizations for meso-scale models.
Dual-polarization C-band weather radar algorithms for rain rate estimation and hydrometeor classification in an alpine region
Authors: Paulitsch H. , Teschl F. , Randeu W. L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Dual polarization is becoming the standard for new weather radar systems. In contrast to conventional weather radars, where the reflectivity is measured in one polarization plane only, a dual polarization radar provides transmission in either horizontal, vertical, or both polarizations while receiving both the horizontal and vertical channels simultaneously. Since hydrometeors are often far from being spherical, the backscatter and propagation are different for horizontal and vertical polarization. Comparing the reflected horizontal and vertical power returns and their ratio and correlation, information on size, shape, and material density of cloud and precipitation particles can be obtained. The use of polarimetric radar variables can therefore increase the accuracy of the rain rate estimation compared to standard Z-R relationships of non-polarimetric radars. It is also possible to derive the type of precipitation from dual polarization parameters, although this is not an easy task, since there is no clear discrimination between the different values. Fuzzy logic approaches have been shown to work well with overlapping conditions and imprecisely defined class output. In this paper the implementation of different polarization algorithms for the new Austrian weather radar on Mt. Valluga is described, and first results from operational use are presented. This study also presents first observations of rain events in August 2007 during the test run of the radar. Further, the designated rain rate estimation and hydrometeor classification algorithms are explained.
Modeling of vegetation dynamics in hydrological models for the assessment of the effects of climate change on evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge
Authors: Wegehenkel M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Vegetation affects water balance of the land surface by e.g. storage of precipitation water in the canopy and soil water extraction by transpiration. Therefore, it is essential to consider the role of vegetation in affecting water balance by taking into account the temporal dynamics of e.g. leaf area index, rooting depth and stomatal conductance in hydrological models. However until now, most conceptual hydrological models do not treat vegetation as a dynamic component. This paper presents an analysis of the effects of the application of two different complex vegetation models combined with a hydrological model on the model outputs evapotranspiration and groundwater recharge. Both model combinations were used for the assessment of the effects of climate change on water balance in a mesoscale catchment loctated in the Northeastern German Lowlands. One vegetation model assumes a static vegetation development independent from environmental conditions. The other vegetation model calculates dynamic development of vegetation based on photosynthesis, respiration, allocation, and phenology. The analysis of the results obtained from both model combinations indicated the importance of taking into account vegetation dynamics in hydrological models especially if such models are used for the assessment of the impacts of climate change on water balance components.
Impacts of spatial data resolution on simulated discharge, a case study of Xitiaoxi catchment in South China
Authors: Zhao G. J. , Hörmann G. , Fohrer N. , Gao J. F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper we analyse the effects of different spatial input data resolution on water balance simulation using a simple distributed hydrological model: PCR-XAJ model. A data set consisting of land use and digital elevation model at 25 m resolution of Xitiaoxi catchment in South China is used for investigation. The model was first calibrated and validated at 50 m cell size, thereafter an aggregation of the digital elevation model (DEM) and land use maps at 100 m, 200 m, 300 m, 500 m and 1 km are applied to evaluate the effects of spatial data resolution on simulated discharge. The simulation results at a grid size of 50 m show a good correlation between measured and simulated daily flows at Hengtangcun station with Nash-Suttcliffe efficiency larger than 0.75 for both calibration and validation periods. In contrast, the model performs slightly worse at Fanjiacun station. The increasing grid size affects the characteristics of the slope and land use aggregation and causes important information loss. The aggregation of input data does not lead to significant errors up to a grid of 1 km. Model efficiencies decrease slightly with cell size increasing, and more significantly up to the grid size of 1 km.
Analysis of possible impacts of climate change on the hydrological regimes of different regions in Germany
Authors: Bormann H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this study, the impact of climate change scenarios on the hydrological regimes of five different regions in Germany is investigated. These regions (Northwest Germany, Northeast Germany and East German basins, upper and lower Rhine, pre-Alps) differ with respect to present climate and projected climate change. The physically based SVAT-model SIMULAT is applied to theoretical soil columns based on combinations of land use, soil texture and groundwater depth to quantify climate change effects on the hydrological regime. Observed climate, measured at climate stations of the German Weather Service (1991–2007), is used for comparison with climate projections (2071–2100) generated by the regional scale climate model WETTREG. While all climate scenarios implicate an increase in precipitation in winter, a decrease in precipitation in summer and an increase in temperature, the simulated impacts on the hydrological regime are regionally different. In the Rhine region and in Northwest Germany, an increase in the annual runoff and groundwater recharge is simulated despite the increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration. In the Eastern part of Germany and the pre-Alps, annual runoff and groundwater recharge will decrease. Due to dry conditions in summer, the soil moisture deficit will increase (in Northeast Germany and the East German basins in particular) or remain constant (Rhine region). In all regions the seasonal variability in runoff and soil moisture status will increase. Despite regional warming actual evapotranspiration will decrease in most regions except in areas with shallow groundwater tables and the lower Rhine. Although the study is limited by the fact that only one climate model was used to drive one hydrologic model, the study shows that the hydrological regime will be affected by climate change. The direction of the expected changes seems to be obvious as well as the necessity of the adaptation of future water management strategies.
Modelling the effects of land-use and land-cover change on water availability in the Jordan River region
Authors: Menzel L. , Koch J. , Onigkeit J. , Schaldach R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Within the GLOWA Jordan River project, a first-time overview of the current and possible future land and water conditions of a major part of the Eastern Mediterranean region (ca. 100 000 km2) is given. First, we applied the hydrological model TRAIN to simulate current water availability (runoff and groundwater recharge) and irrigation water demand on a 1 km×1 km spatial resolution. The results demonstrate the scarcity of water resources in the study region, with extremely low values of water availability in the semi-arid and arid parts. Then, a set of four divergent scenarios on the future of water has been developed using a stakeholder driven approach. Relevant drivers for land-use/land-cover change were fed into the LandSHIFT.R model to produce land-use and land-cover maps for the different scenarios. These maps were used as input to TRAIN in order to generate scenarios of water availability and irrigation water demand for the region. For this study, two intermediate scenarios were selected, with projected developments ranging between optimistic and pessimistic futures (with regard to social and economic conditions in the region). Given that climate conditions remain unchanged, the simulations show both increases and decreases in water availability, depending on the future pattern of natural and agricultural vegetation and the related dominance of hydrological processes.
A model-based assessment of the potential role of irrigated cropland for biogas production in Europe
Authors: Schaldach R. , Flörke M. , Lapola D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. For the European Union, the increasing use of renewable energy sources is an important instrument to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and to achieve greater independency from energy imports. Here, agriculture has the chance to become an important contributor by the cultivation of bio-energy crops. In this paper, the potential role of irrigated cropland for the cultivation of silage maize for biogas production is analyzed on the European level. A methodology is developed to identify suitable locations for maize cultivation and to evaluate their performance in respect of the amount of irrigation water and land needed for energy production. For this purpose, GIS analysis techniques are combined with simulation results from the process-based vegetation model LPJmL for maize yields and irrigation water requirements. The generated information can serve as input for the development of European-scale bio-energy policies and for further analysis of the water footprint and energy balance of bio-energy systems.
Large scale features associated with strong frontogenesis in equivalent potential temperature in the South American subtropics east of the Andes
Authors: Arraut J. M. , Barbosa H. M. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. South American subtropics east of the Andes exhibit a region of intense climatological frontogenesis in equivalent potential temperature (EPT) in the December to March season, mostly produced by deformation of the wind field. The goal of this paper is to investigate the large scale features associated with intense and weak frontogenesis by deformation (FGD) in EPT in the region where it attains its climatological maximum. This can be approximately delimited by 32–42° S and 66–69° W, which is small enough as to contain only one synoptic perturbation at a time. The spatial average of the positive values of frontogenesis at 850 hPa over the whole region (DFG+) is used to represent the strength of the perturbation. ECMWF ERA-40 reanalysis data set is used to calculate DFG+ at six hour intervals for 21 seasons (1981–2002). Compositing analysis is carried out for strong (above the 0.75 quantile) and weak (below the 0.25 quantile) events. For strong events the geopotential field at 850 hPa exhibits the North Argentinean Low (NAL), a transient trough and the Low Pressure Tongue East of the Andes (LPT). Upon comparison with the composite field of FGD it can be observed that FGD exhibits a strong maximum over the Argentinean Col (AC) which separates the NAL and the trough. These features are absent in the weak frontogenesis composite, which exhibits a stronger South Pacific Subtropical High close to the continent. At 250 hPa the strong FGD composite exhibits a trough over the Andes with a wind speed maximum to its east. Both of these features are associated with the deepening of the NAL in the literature. These are not present in the weak FGD composites. Strong events show an intense quasi meridional corridor of water vapor transport from the Amazon to the subtropics that encounters westerly flow in the neighborhood of the AC. This is absent in weak events. A preliminary analysis of precipitation is carried out using the GPCP daily data set. An intense precipitation nucleus appears slightly northeast of the AC, with maximum intensity in the day that follows the strong events. Weak events exhibit a drying of the subtropics instead, between one and three days after the events. Higher precipitation over the oceanic South Atlantic Convergence Zone can be also observed. Analogous composites were constructed for the presence and absence of both the AC and the LPT, showing similar characteristics to the strong and weak FGD event composites respectively, but with lower intensities. This shows that by selecting strong FGD events, intense NAL and LPT events are also singled out.
A statistical study of Weinmannia pollen trajectories across the Andes
Authors: Pérez C. F. , Castañeda M. E. , Gassmann M. I. , Bianchi M. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Recent airborne pollen records data from Northern Patagonia (San Carlos de Bariloche, Argentina, Lat. 41.1435° S, Long. 71.375° W, 800 m elevation) suggest that pollen transport takes place from the west to the east slope of the Andes. However, the atmospheric characteristics responsible of this transport have not yet been studied. The aim of this paper is to assess potential source areas and to describe the involved atmospheric mechanisms of the trans-Andean pollen transport. Methodology relies on the analysis of backward trajectories of air masses calculated with the HYSPLIT 4.9 regional model for particular days where airborne pollen of Weinmannia trichosperma Cav. was detected east of the Andes. This pollen type was selected because it is found regularly at localities in eastern Patagonia beyond its present-day distribution. Weinmannia's substantial presence during early Holocene times would also benefit from better knowledge of its transport mechanisms. Correspondence between atmospheric trajectories and the position of sources was checked using GIS maps. Mode T, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) with Varimax rotation was used to identify the main spatial structure of geopotential height anomalies producing the calculated trajectories. Eighty-eight cases showed that the calculated directions of trajectories trended from the Northwest to Southwest passing over the Chilean region of W. trichosperma distribution. PCs results showed two patterns of negative anomalies over southern Patagonia. The prevailing circulation pattern which drives airborne transport is the presence of a trough located south of 37 to 40° S with its axis over western Patagonia. The synoptic situations for two cases highly correlated with principal component scores were described.
To what extent do natural disturbances contribute to Andean plant diversity? A theoretical outline from the wettest and driest parts of the tropical Andes
Authors: Richter M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper deals with natural disturbances and their impact on vascular plant enrichment at two climatically contrasting Andean ranges, i.e. the perhumid Cordillera Real in southern Ecuador and the arid Cordillera de Atacama in northern Chile. In the first case, main triggers for an additional input of pioneer species during succession stages initiated by perturbations are landslides, mudflows, and, to a lesser extent, cohort mortality, floods, and wildlife damages. Droughts and wind are stressors, which reduce plant growth but hardly plant diversity, in contrast to enhanced UV radiation with its mutagen effect. Though stress effects are similar in the Atacama, disturbance regimes differ considerably in this dry mountain environment. Here, most perturbations are of small dimension such as nitrogen inputs by feces of Lamoids and burrow activities of tuco-tuco mice, both of them fostering nitrophilous plant communities. Flooding, gelifluction, and other denudation processes such as sheet wash occur too, however, do not charge species enrichment in the dry Andes. Although the perhumid study site represents one of the world's plant diversity "hotspots" and, by contrast, the arid one a comparatively "coldspot", pioneer species during successive stages after natural disturbances contribute in a similar percentage to the total plant inventories (appr. 10% of the species numbers). Relatively seen, natural disturbances are most important for species enrichment in the Atacama (200–500 species per 10 000 km2), while most other ecological factors delimit plant survival. Instead, plant life at the Ecuadorian study area benefits from many climatic and edaphic site conditions, and consequently, disturbances are considered only one of many driving forces for its hotspot status (>5000 species per 10 000 km2).
Operational forecasting of a snowfall event over the Greater Athens Area
Authors: Louka P. , Boucouvala D. , Gofa F. , Balami M. , Ziakopoulos D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A case of an intense snowfall in the Greater Athens Area (GAA) between 16 and 18 February 2008 is investigated. The physical processes that forced the snowfall event are identified and analysed. The main factor causing the event at its start was the entrainment of arctic air masses from North-Eastern Europe. At a second stage, the Aegean Sea acted as the Great Lakes of Canada and North-East USA and in association with the existing extremely cold air masses aloft and the enrichment of the air with humidity and heat led to the enhancement of the snowfall in the GAA. In the final stage of the event, the local meteorological conditions associated with the topography of the area resulted in the occurrence of very intense snowfall event on the leeward side of the GAA. The available operational observations and forecast tools were used for accurately predicting the intensity, duration and evolution of the event.
Lightning and rain dynamic indices as predictors for flash floods events in the Mediterranean
Authors: Harats N. , Ziv B. , Yair Y. , Kotroni V. , Dayan U.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The FLASH EU funded project aims to observe, analyze and model lightning activity in thunderstorms for use in short term forecasting of flash floods in the Mediterranean region. Two new indices, aimed to assess the potential for heavy precipitation and flash-floods, are proposed and evaluated. The first is a lightning index – the MKI, which is a modified version of the KI-index. The applied index gives more weight to the lower- and mid-level relative humidity. The second is a new rain index, the RDI, which is the integrated product of specific humidity and vertical velocity. With the aim to contribute to the aforementioned objectives, 3 flash flood events, two in Israel and one in Greece are analyzed in the present study, using the 2 proposed indices. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis database, of 2.5°×2.5° resolution, failed to resolve the meso-scale features of the observed flash flood events. Therefore, the ECWMF database, of 0.5°×0.5° resolution, was used for calculating and displaying the two indices. Comparison between the observed rain and lightning and the respective indices for the two pieces of data was performed for the flash flood events. The results show good concordance of both indices with timing and spatial distribution in 2 of them, while in one of them is displaced by more than 50 km. The good agreement in locating the maximum between the MKI and RDI suggests that the proposed indices are good predictors for both intense lightning activity and torrential rain and consequently, for potential flash floods.
Georadar investigations to detect cavities in a historical town damaged by an earthquake of the past
Authors: Gizzi F. T. , Loperte A. , Satriani A. , Lapenna V. , Masini N. , Proto M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper aims to highlight the use of the georadar as a useful prospecting technique to identify the areal density and the geometrical features of the grottoes placed in a historical town characterised by high seismic hazard. The town considered here is Rionero in Vulture (Southern Italy) that was hit by several historical earthquakes, among which the 1930 Irpinia earthquake (Me=6.7, Is=VIII MCS). For this event a damage map was already available from a previous study (Gizzi and Masini, 2006). This map shows that some sectors of the town suffered higher damage. One factor causing the uneven distribution of the effects is considered to be the presence of grottoes. To strengthen this work hypothesis it was necessary to in-depth investigate the subsoil of Rionero in Vulture. Therefore, geophysical data were correlated and integrated with data obtained from field surveys and historical documentary sources. All these investigations allowed to obtain more insights about the influences of the man-made caves on seismic damage.
Can a Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique be used for precipitation forecasts?
Authors: Cane D. , Milelli M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Multimodel SuperEnsemble technique is a postprocessing method for the estimation of weather forecast parameters reducing direct model output errors. It differs from other ensemble analysis techniques by the use of an adequate weighting of the input forecast models in order to obtain a combined estimation of meteorological parameters. Weights are calculated by least-square minimization of the differences between the model and the observed field during a so-called training period. Although it can be applied successfully on continuous parameters like temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and mean sea level pressure, the Multimodel SuperEnsemble also gives good results when applied on the precipitation, a parameter quite difficult to handle with standard post-processing methods. Here we present a methodology for the Multimodel precipitation forecasts with a careful ensemble dressing via the precipitation PDF estimation.
Cyclic modes of the intra-annual variability of precipitation in Greece
Authors: Nastos P. T. , Zerefos C. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The application of harmonic analysis to the annual variability of precipitation is the object of this study, so that the modes, which compose the annual variability, be elicited. For this purpose, monthly precipitation totals from 30 meteorological stations of the Hellenic National Meteorological Service (HNMS), for the period 1950–2000, were used. The initial target is to reduce the number of variables and to detect structure in the relationships between the variables. The most commonly used technique for this purpose is the application of Factor Analysis (FA) resulted in five main factors (sub-regions) with common precipitation characteristics, explaining 77% of the total variance. For each sub-region, a representative station is selected for the analyses, mainly, as the station within the sub-region with the highest factor loading. In the process, the Fourier Analysis is applied to the mean monthly precipitation, so that 2 harmonic components are derived, which explain more than 90% of the total variability of each station, and are due to different synoptic and thermodynamic processes associated with Greece's precipitation regime. Finally the calculation of the time of the maximum precipitation, for each harmonic component, gives the spatial distribution of the appearance of the maximum precipitation in the Greek region.
Space weather and risk management
Authors: Lappalainen H. , Kauristie K. , Pirjola R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The term space weather is used for the solar driven variability in particle and electromagnetic conditions of the near-Earth space that may harm the performance of ground-based and space-borne technology. The European Union (EU) and the European Space Agency (ESA) have started a common programme called the Global Monitoring for Environment and Security (GMES). Many of the GMES operational services will rely on technology prone to space weather phenomena. For long-term environmental monitoring this is not a problem, but for applications of risk management in emergency situations the impact of space weather should be considered and evaluated. In this paper, we discuss how ESA's previous activity together with European national initiatives in the space weather area can be used to support GMES and how EU could participate in this work in its Framework Programmes and within the European Research Area (ERA).