bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Some Demographic Features of the Disabled Population in
Pakistan
Authors: Afzal Mohammad
Published: August 2018

Although disability has been the area of concern in the domain
of such disciplines as social welfare and public health, the serious
concern on the demography of disability as an important research subject
has emerged only recently. In the less developed countries where most of
the world popUlation lives, the rapid decline in mortality with little
reduction in fertility, under the conditions of underdevelopment,
nutritional deficiencies, insufficient coverage for health, inadequate
sanitation and safe water facilities, has been contributing to the
increasing number of disabled persons. This is because the availability
of modern medicine, even to an inadequate extent, has contributed to the
reduction in mortality, but many of those who survive become permanently
disabled. Apart from the differences in data collection systems in
different countries and the problems associated with such approaches,
the variations in prevalence of disability are partly attributed to such
factors as differential chronic and infectious disease patterns;
differential life expectancy; the age structure of populations and
population composition; differential nutritional status; differential
rates of exposure to environmental, occupational and traffic hazards;
and variations in public health practice [United Nations. (1990)]. In
developed countries where the increase in life expectancy had started to
occur earlier than the developing countries, the decline in fertility
led to the growing proportions of the elderly in their population. As
the proportion of the elderly popUlation in the total population gets
larger the proportion of the disabled become conspicuous. This is
because in both developed and deVeloping countries the age structure of
the disabled popUlation is predominantly elderly in comparison to the
overall population age structure. It has been observed that in such
developed countries where the ageing process has gone furthest, the
number of disabled persons have increased rapidly. [Okoliski
(1986).]
Self-Reliance and the Implications for Growth and Resource
Mobilisation
Authors: Kemal A.R.
Published: August 2018

Whereas self-reliant growth has been the avowed objective of
successive governments in Pakistan, the realisation of self-reliance has
become even more difficult with the passage of time. Pakistan opted for
an aid-dependent growth strategy in the early Sixties with a view to
accelerating the growth of output. It was argued that with the help of
foreign aid Pakistan could realise a growth rate of 7.5 percent and
through higher rates of savings and higher growth of exports she would
attain self-reliance in a period of 20 years. [See Chenery and MacEwan
(1965).] The perspective Plan: 1965-85 [see Government of Pakistan
(1965)] had projected that the domestic resources of Pakistan would be
sufficient to finance 95 percent of investment in 1985 when investment
was expected to be as large as 22.9 percent of GNP. However, Pakistan
could finance only 70.6 percent of her investment in 1984-85 while the
investment was only 17.3 percent of GNP. The Perspective Plan [see
Government of Paki~tan (1988)] aims at self-reliance by the year 2003;
it p~ojects that domestic resources would finance 95 percent of
investment but the investment would rise only to 18.4 percent of GNP by
the year 2003.
Short-Term Employment Functions in Manufacturing Industries: An
Empirical Analysis for Pakistan
Authors: Sheikh Khalid Hameed , Iqbal Zafar
Published: August 2018

The most challenging issue facing Pakistan today is the high
rate of growth of population and labour force which is a major obstacle
to the development of the country. The current problem of unemployment
is becoming serious and is deeply rooted in the economic, social and
political conditions of the economy. The consequences of rapid
industrialisation on employment generation in Pakistan has also been
very disappointing. The manufacturing sector in Pakistan has grown at an
average annual rate of around 6.0 percent during the 1970s and 8.7
percent during the 1980s. Manufacturing output has risen from 16.5
percent of the GDP during the 1970s to 19.1 percent during the 1980s.
The manufacturing sector has failed to generate sufficient employment
for new entrants in the labour force. Over a period of 18 years from
1969-70 to 1986-87, only 14.0 percent of the total labour force could
get employment in the manufacturing sector. A low creation of employment
opportunities is also manifest in the fact that the growth rate of
employment in the manufacturing sector has declined considerably from
2.4 percent during the 1970s to 1.0 percent during the 1980s.
Towards Balanced Development in Pakistan (Distinguishedl
Lecture)
Authors: Pyatt Graham
Published: August 2018

The United Nations Development Programme has recently launched
an annual series of Human Development Reports (HDRs) see UNDP
(1990-annual). This event marks a major initiative to broaden the debate
over development strategies and, in particular, to secure a greater
emphasis within that debate on people and their circumstances. From the
outset the Human Development Reports have documented the fact that the
correlations between economic growth and improvements in health,
education and other social indicators are not necessarily close,
although there are obvious causal links which can be traced in both
directions. In particular, there are countries for which the economic
growth performance has been more impressive than the gains which are
suggested by various social indicators. Pakistan is a case in point and
this paper reports on an effort to first understand why this might be,
and then to develop a framework within which to structure the issues
arising as an initial step towards the redesign of policies.
Human Capital Accumulation in Post Green Revolution Rural
Pakistan: A Progress Report (The Distinguishedl Lecture)
Authors: Sabot Richard H.
Published: August 2018

Two years ago at this conference I presented some preliminary
results from a large micro-economic research project analysing the
detenninants and consequences of human capital accumulation in rural
Pakistan. At that time the entry, cleaning and evaluation of the data,
generated by a specially designed rural household and school survey, had
just been completed and the first phase of the econometric work
programme had barely begun. Since then the research team has made
substantial progress on the analytic work programme. This paper is a
report on that progress. The research project on which I am reporting
was designed to be relevant to important education and rural development
policy issues. In my previous paper I noted that, despite productivity
enhancing technological change, research based on large special purpose
micro data sets remains a time intensive activity. I referred to the
resulting tension between the researchers' desire to satisfy the policy
makers' urgent need for findings and the researchers' scholarly
commitment to sound analysis. I suggested that intennediate outputs can
help resolve the tension though they then are subject to the caveat of
being open to refinement and revision. I am greatly relieved to inform
you that none of the results I report today contradict results reported
in my previous paper. Some of what I report are, from the research
team's perspective "final", while others are from work in progress and,
therefore, subject to revision.
On Measuring the Social Opportunity Cost of Labour in the
Presence of Tariffs and an Informal Sector (The Distinguishedl
Lecture)
Authors: Khan M. Ali
Published: August 2018

Harberger introduced his influential 1971 essay with the
following words. This paper is intended not as a scientific study, nor
as a review of the literature, but rather as a tract - an open letter to
the profession, as it were - pleading that three basic postulates be
accepted as providing a conventional framework for applied welfare
economics. The postulates are: (a) The competitive demand price for a
given unit measures the value of that unit to the demander; (b) The
competitive supply price for a given unit measures the value of that
unit to the supplier; and (c) When evaluating the net benefits or costs
of a given action (project, programme, or policy), the costs and
benefits accruing to each member of the relevant group (e.g., a nation)
should normally be added without regard to the individual(s) to whom
they accrue.
I. S. A. Baud. Forms of Production and Women's Labour: Gender
Aspects of Industrialisation in India and Mexico. New Delhi: Sage
Publications. 1992. 321 pp.Hardbound. Price: Indian Rs 295.00.
Authors: Talha Naureen
Published: August 2018

The literature on female labour in Third World countries has
become quite extensive. India, being comparatively more advanced
industrially, and in view of its size and population, presents a
pictures of multiplicity of problems which face the female labour
market. However, the author has also included Mexico in this analytical
study. It is interesting to see the characteristics of developing
industrialisation in two different societies: the Indian society, which
is conservative, and the Mexican society, which is progressive. In the
first chapter of the book, the author explains that he is not concerned
with the process of industrialisation and female labour employed at
different levels of work, but that he is interested in forms of
production and women's employment in large-scale production, petty
commodity production, marginal small production, and self-employment in
the informal sector. It is only by analysis of these forms that the
picture of females having a lower status is understood in its social and
political setting.
Production Functions for Wheat Farmers in Selected Districts of
Pakistan: An Application of a Stochastic Frontier Production Function
with Time-varying Inefficiency Effects
Authors: Batiese George E. , Malik Sohail J. , Broca Sumiter
Published: August 2018

Two models of technical inefficiency with a stochastic
production frontier are considered in this paper. In the frrst model, it
is assumed that the frontier itself does not vary with time, while in
the second, the frontier is allowed to move. These models are applied to
four years of panel data on wheat farmers in four districts of Pakistan:
Faisalabad and Attock in the Punjab, Badin in Sindh, and Dir in the
NWFP. Using essentially the same stochastic frontier production function
in each of the four districts involved, different stochastic
specifications for the inefficiency effects are obtained for the
different districts. Technical efficiencies of production of the
individual farmers are predicted in each year in which they are
observed. Varying patterns of technical inefficiency are observed. The
null hypothesis (of no technical inefficiency) cannot be rejected in
only one district. In the other districts, while inefficiencies appear
to be present in all of them, they are declining at a fairly rapid pace
in one. The results highlight the importance of analysis at a
disaggregated level because it is clear that both the rate of technical
change and relative efficiencies vary across regions and explicit
cognisance must be taken of this both in research and policy
formulation.
What Determines the Behaviour of Real Exchange Rate in
Pakistan?
Authors: Chishti Salim , Hasan M.A Ynul
Published: August 2018

It is now widely acknowledged that the role of the real
exchange rate is crucial in the adjustment process of the economy. While
exchange rates are, generally, relative prices of national currencies
under a floating rate regime, they may be viewed as being determined by
the interaction of supply and demand in the foreign exchange markets.
This premise, though uncontentious, renders simply a beginning for
comprehending the determination of the exchange rate and its ensuing
relationship to various macroeconomic variables and to policy. It has
been argued rather forcefully [e.g., Edwards and Wijnbergen (1987);
Edwards (1988, 1988a); Khan (1986); Khan and Lizondo (1987)] that any
analysis in this regard to be labelled as comprehensive would
characterise the exchange rate as being detc;:rmined by a complex
process of interaction simultaneously with other variables in tbe
national and international macroeconomy rather than being determined
simply by 'purchasing power parity' (PPP) as proposed by Cassel (1918).
Citing Cassel's writings in this context, Officer (1976) noted the
reasons for such a departure from a stable relationship between the real
exchange rate and the PPP as being due to frequent trade restrictions,
distorted tariff policies, speculations in the 'foreign exchange market,
large capital outflows, government's heavy handed ~intervention in the
foreign exchange markets, etc.
How Similar are the Determinants of Mortality and
Fertility?*
Authors: Mubashir Ali Syed , Bakhsh Slyal Hussain , Sultan Mehboob
Published: August 2018

In a pre-transition situation both fertility and mortality are
high. However, in the process of demographic transition, fertility
decline follows mortality decline and when the demographic transition is
complete both these variables vary closely at a low level. In other
words, both these variables behave in a way which are oomplimentaJy to
each other and hence it may be hypothesised that the factors which
explain variation in fertility should explain variation in mortality or
vice versa. Nevertheless, the strength and sometimes even direction of
these determinants may vary from time to time and from place to place.
Presently, Pakistan is in the process of demographic transition. By
using the 1990-91 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey data, here in
this exercise, an attempt is made to identify and investigate' the
similarities and the differences if any, in the determinants of both
fertility and mortality.
Demand Side of Pakistan's Population Welfare Programme
Authors: Farooqui M. Naseem Iqbal , Sheikh Khalid Hameed
Published: August 2018

Because of a continuously moderate decline in mortality
specially during the first two decades of the twentieth century and more
remarkably after the Second World War, the population of developing
countries, including Pakistan, grew faster over time. High rates of
population growth and the characteristics associated with it constituted
a serious challenge to desired economic development in these countries
[United Nations (1973)]. It was for these reasons that a number of
developing countries in the process of development considered and
adopted as part of their development efforts a population policy aimed
at reducing the rate of population growth through fertility decline. In
the early 1960s, few countries including Pakistan considered family
planning programmes as an integral part of their development policies.
By the end of 1960, family planning programmes had been initiated in
many developing countries and such programmes became an integral part of
the national plans [Freedman and Berelson (1976)]. By the mid-1970s, it
was observed that many developing countries had succeeded in enhancing
their programme activities and in achieving contraceptive use which was
responsible for reducing fertility levels in those countries. However in
many developing countries, including Pakistan, the family planning
programmes could not achieve a breakthrough in contraceptive use and
fertility decline although the programmes had been ambitiously pursued
there for more than a decade [Frinkle and Crane (1975) and Berelson
(1975)].
The Determinants of Worker's Remittances in Pakistan
Authors: Nishat Mohammed , Bilgrami Nighat
Published: August 2018

Remittances are basically a self-enforcing contractual
arrangement betwc the individual migrant and the family. This idea of
working abroad looks like tha may be a Pareto-superior strategy for the
household when a member migra elsewhere either as a means of risk
sharing or as an investment in excess to hig] earning streams.
Remittances may then be seen as a device for redistributing gai with
relative shares determined in an implicit arrangement struck between 1
migrant and the remaining family. The migrant adheres to the contractl
arrangements as long as it is in his interest to do so. This interest
may be eitl altruistic or more self-seeking, such as concern for
inheritance or the right to retu home ulitmately in dignity.
Institutional Variations in Saving Behaviour in Pakistan
Authors: Iqbal Zafar
Published: August 2018

Savings and investment are two variables that play a
significant role in accumulation. Variations in these key variables have
a significant impact on economic growth, employment and inflation. A
thorough understanding of their determlnants provides an important
insight into the development process and aids in policy formulation.
Such knowledge is also necessary to trace the consequences on growth and
employment which may work through savings and investment behaviour. A
particularly useful approach to understanding the macro-behaviour of
saving and investment is to conduct an empirical analysis in terms of
institutional agents. In fact, most of the current work in Pakistan is
restricted to estimating aggregate savings functions which are not
sufficient for analysis of savings behaviour mainly because various
institutional agents may respond differently to economic signals. For
example, foreign interest rates may attract private savings to transfer
abroad, while the public sector may generate its own savings in response
to increasing foreign interest rates. It can also be argued that the
inflow of foreign capital may encourage private savings through direct
foreign investment and discourage public savings through the
substitution effect. Many other examplescan be quoted on theoretical
background. Therefore, it may be useful to estimate disaggregated saving
functions. The question, "are there institutional variations in the
savings behaviour of household. corporate and public sectors in
Pakistan?" will be the main focus of this paper.
A Micro Analysis of Demand-side Determinants of Schooling in
Urban Pakistan
Authors: Hamid Shahnaz
Published: August 2018

Investment in human capital is as important for growth as
physical capital. The objective of this paper is to establish the
importance of some factors, that affect the decision of a household to
send their children who are of school going age, between 5-14 years, to
school in urban areas. This paper is divided into five sections, Section
2 reviews the relevant schooling literature for Pakistan. Section 3
points some theoretical hypotheses describing the data and Section 4
presents the analysis, and finally Section 5 presents some
conclusions.
Presumptive Tax as an Alternate Income Tax Base: A Case Study of
Pakistan
Authors: Khan Ahmad
Published: August 2018

There is a general consensus that an efficient means of
mobilising revenues is necessaIy for improved public infrastructure and
for preventing disruptions in the economy [Wilfried (1991)].
Inappropriate and unsustainable expenditure and revenue policies, on the
contrary, cause disappointing economic performance. Hence, the concern
with mobilising adequate resources through improved taxation and better
pricing of public services. A review of the existing taxation systems of
several developing countries suggests that these are distortionary in
nature and contribute to a number of economic problems including
production inefficiency, capital flight and fiscal and balance of
payments disequilibria [Asher (1990)]. They are generally complex
(difficult to administer and comply with), inelastic (nonresponsive to
growth and discretionary policy measures), inefficient (raise little
revenues but introduce serious economic distortions), inequitable (treat
businesses and individuals in similar circumstances differently) and,
quite simply, unfair (tax administration and enforcement are selective
and skewed in favour of those capable of defeating th~ system) [McLure
and Zodarow (1991)]. Further, there is heavy reliance on taxes on
international trade (approx. 80 percent for India and Thailand, 84
percent for Sri Lanka, 70 percent for the Philippines, 50 percent for
Turkey). User charges and taxes on income, property and capital
contribute only a small proportion of the overall revenues (pakistan 20
percent, Thailand 19 percent, India 17 percent, the Philippines 19
percent). Agricultural incomes are not taxed. personal and corporate
income taxes are levied on narrow bases at high rates. These tax
structures impose varying levels of taxation, depending on the form of
income, type of assets, size and legal status of businesses, and the
kind of Qusiness activity (i.e. are 'schedular' in nature). As a result,
the average effective tax rate and the marginal effective tax rate
substantially vary across assets and section-thereby distorting
individual choices with respect to the form of income, the sector of
investment activity, and the time profile of investment [Bulutoglu and
Thirsk (1991)].
B. H. Kinsey. Agribusiness and Rural Enterprise. London: Croom Helm Ltd., 1987.223 pp.ISBN 0-7099-1558-6. Hardbound. £25.00.
Authors: Sohail J. Malik
Published: August 2018

The emphasis on rural employment generation as a means of poverty alleviation has brought about an increasing focus on the promotion of agribusiness and rural enterprises during the last few years. The concern about the distribution of the benefits of economic growth has further heightened its importance. The debate, which centred on the apparent trade-off between economic growth on the one hand and social equity on the other, was fuelled by the apparent "urban bias" of the strategies adopted in a majority of developing countries, and by the fact that poverty tended to be concentrated in the rural areas. The book under review, which the author terms in the "Preface" as a "manual", "is designed primarily for planners, public administrators, and project personnel in countries or international agencies implementing or considering a development strategy in which agribusiness and rural enterprise projects are viewed as desirable as a policy instrument for generating employment and income". The underlying premise is that a diverse and scattered but overwhelming evidence exists here of labour-intensive, small-scale, and relatively efficient enterprise system, the expansion of which would have a favourable impact on the employment and incomes of the rural landless and poor and provide beneficial linkages to the small-farm sector. There is a need, therefore, to distil from this evidence the lessons in project identification and design and implementation in order to achieve both growth and equity at the same time.
Private Consumption, Government Spending, Debt Neutrality:
Resolving Kormendi-Feldstein- Modigliani Controversy
Authors: Kazami Aqdas Ali
Published: August 2018

The debt neutrality hypothesis, in its quintessential form,
postulates that debt/tax mix for fmancing deficit is irrelevant. More
precisely, the debt-neutrality deals with the two fundamental questions:
(i) Given the volume and composition of government expenditures, does it
matter whether they are fmanced by taxes or debt issue? (ii) Do public
deficits absorb private savings that otherwise fmance private capital
formation? Juxtaposed to the traditional Keynesian theory which answers
these questions positively, the exponents of debt-neutrality make the
counter-claim that debt is neutral and public deficits have no "crowding
out" effects on private saving or investment. The debt-neutrality is
popularly termed as the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis because the
fundamental logic underlying this hypothesis was originally presented by
David Ricardo in Chapter XVII entitled "Taxes on Other Commodities than
Raw Produce" of his celebrated "The Principles of Political Economy and
Taxation". Although Ricardo explained why government borrowing and taxes
could be equivalent, he never sponsored the case for unlimited issue of
government bonds. In fact, he warned against the consequences of
continuous fiscal deficits in the following words: "Form what I have
said, it must not be inferred that I consider the system of borrowing as
the best calculated to defray the extraordinary
expenses.....................
Estimating the Quantitative Importance of Various Sources of
Macroeconomic Variability
Authors: Thair Rizwan
Published: August 2018

Providing a reasonable explanation for the business cycle has
been the research agenda for many economists since the early 20th
century, from Mitchell (1913), Pigou (1927) and Adelman and Adelman
(1959) to Lucas (1972), Black (1982) and King and Plosser (1984). For a
review, see Zarnowitz (1985). Most attempts to explain the sources of
macroeconomic fluctuations' attribute the variability in output and
prices to only a few sources, sometimes to\mJ.y one. Kydland and
Prescott (1982) and others proposed technology shocks as the main source
of aggregate variability; Barro (1977) pointed to unanticipated changes
in money stock; Lilien (1982) argued for 'unusual structural shifts'
such as changes in the demand for goods relative to services, and
Hamilton (1983) concluded in favour of oil price shocks.
Fiscal Effects of Monetary Seigniorage: A Case Study of
Pakistan
Authors: Abbas Kalbe , Mahmood Tariq
Published: August 2018

The effects of monetary policy on key macro variables have
been studied in the literature. In Pakistan most of these studies
concentrate on exploring the interdependence of money supply, national
income, inflation etc.1 One important, but neglected issue of monetary
policy, is its fiscal effects. The fiscal and monetary authorities being
parts of the total economic policy machinery, the role of monetary
instruments in achieving fiscal objective should not be ignored. In
countries like Pakistan where the central bank is under direct control
of the government, fiscal policy is often made under the assumption that
the monetary policy will be adjusted accordingly.2 There are a number of
ways in which monetary policy may lead to fulfilment of some fiscal
objectives. These include devaluation, change in interest rate and
change in monetary base.
Intersectoral Financial Transactions in Pakistan
Authors: Sarrmad Khawaja , Mahmood Riaz
Published: August 2018

The impact of the external shocks on Pakistan's development
and on the accumulation balances of institutional sectors during the
past two decades is quite well known. The shifts in the accumulation
balances of institutions are invariably accompanied by changes in the
nature and the magnitude of the claims placed with the fmancial system
and with the rest of the world. At present, little is known about the
nature of these changes, during this period, nor about the financial
interdependence and the interaction among the private, the public and
the external sectors of the economy. The growing financial problems of
the country require a proper appreciation of the changing importance of
different instruments in the debt portfolio of the government and other
institutions and of the way capital formation is financed. A number of
studies have used the flow-of-funds accounts framework to analyse the
financial problems of developing countries, for example, [Jansen (1989);
Roe (1985) and Bhatt (1972)]. In Pakistan, however, this subject has not
received much attention. This paper is an attempt to fill this vacuum.
It describes sectoral interactions within a flow-of-funds accounts
framework, and distinguishes various channels through which sectoral
accumulation balances come to an equilibrium by financial flows:
intermediation through the formal banking system, direct capital
transfers between institutions, government deficit fmancing from
borrowing etc. Within this framework the impact of the changes in
investment or in the federal deficit are traced to changes in the
fmancial behaviour of the other sectors. The paper gives a presentation
of the flow-of-funds accounts designed to understand the mechanics of
financing investment and the government deficit. And helps to answer
questions like what are the components of the federal
deficit................
Consanguineous Marriages in Pakistan
Authors: Afzal Mohammad , Ali Syed Mubashir , Siyal H. B.
Published: August 2018

In societies where marriage is nearly universal, and the
fertility process is almost entirely through marital union, the factors
associated with the occurrence of marriage, and through it the
reproduction and rearing of children, need to be continuously assessed.
Except for prohibited relationships, marriages between close and distant
relations, as well as between those not related have been practiced
among the muslims. The high incidence of close kin marriages
(consanguineous marriages),t including those with first cousins, is a
well-known feature of a muslim society. Marriages between close
relatives are not only practiced by muslims but also by the people of
many other religious. affiliations. Within the South Asian subcontinent,
besides muslims, christians and other communities, consanguineous
marriages have also been practiced by hindus, especially in the south
Indian states, and in the central state of Maharashtra. In the northern
states of India the prohibition on such marriages is more strictly
enforced.2 In the south Indian state of Andhra a high proportion of
maternal uncle-niece in addition to cross-cousin marriages (especially
among maternal cross-cousins) have been in a high
propor..........
Interpersonal Communication in Family Planning in
Pakistan
Authors: Farooqui M. Naseem Iqbal
Published: August 2018

In order to curb the harmful effects of population growth many
developing countries initiated family planning programmes around the
year 1960. These programmes traditionally consisted of two components
namely provision of family planning services on the supply side and
Information, Education and Communication (lEe) on the demand side. In
many of these countries the IEC component has been performing functions
such as providing information about the locations and types of services
available and motivating couples to adopt family plan,ning. Besides, IEC
has also been performing the function of educating the local and
national leaders and educated people about population problems and
benefits of smaller family size [Rogers (n.d.)]. The channels through
which IEC messages are conveyed are either mass media or interpersonal
communication. Mass media includes television, radio, and print media.
Planned interpersonal channels include person to person contacts by home
visitors etc. Whereas unplanned interpersonal communication consists of
exchanges between husband and wife, among relatives and
friends.
Cost-effectiveness of the Family Planning Programme in
Pakistan
Authors: Manzoor Khaleda
Published: August 2018

Family Planning in the context of developing couotries
particularly Pakistan can be classified as "public good" or "merit
good". It is because that although family planning services are consumed
by private individuals it is accompanied by significant external
benefits/costs. This constitutes the reason on efficiency grouod for
public provision of family planning services. There are equity grounds
as well for public provision of these services. The public provision of
family planning services is based on paternalistic argument that
individual ought to consume them but are not acting in their own
self-interest and are not ready to purchase them without substantial
subsidisation. It may be one of the reasons for public provision of
family planning, but, on normative grounds it is hard to justify the
provision of merit good and still maintain the two basic premises of
classical welfare economics: that individuals are rational and that
individuals know their own interest best. In the context, of developing
countries these arguments however, take a different dimension. First, in
the absence of a democratic welfare state with high rate of
unemployment, lack of unemployment insurance and social security, lack
of old age security and pension a pertinent question to ask is: are
individuals particularly from middle and lower income groups acting
irrationally by demanding more children if children are perceived as a
source of social and economic support in old age as well as being a
source of additional family income.
Proximate Determinants of Fertility in Pakistan
Authors: Aziz Azra
Published: August 2018

The fertility level is the phenomenon which is the major
determinant of population growth. Various studies conducted since early
seventies and to date reveal that total fertility rate in Pakistan
ranged between 6 to 5.4 and crude birth rate between 42 to 34
[Population Planning Council of Pakistan (1976); Population Welfare
Division of Pakistan (1986); Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey
(199O) and Population and Fertility Indicators (1993). The levels and
trends in fertility are influenced by various physiological, cultural,
social, economic, behavioural, demographic and ecological factors. But
on the bases of empirical evidences Bongaarts argues that most of the
variation in fertility levels is attributed to the differential impact
of four factors; namely marriage, contraceptive use, lactational
infecundability, and induced abortion [Bongaarts (1978)].
Structural Adjustment, Employment, Income Distribution and
Poverty
Authors: Kemal A. R.
Published: August 2018

The Structural Adjustment and Stabilisation Programmes of the
IMF, World Bank and other international financial institutions for
Pakistan have called for a reduction in the fiscal deficit, a restricted
role of government in the economy, rationalisation of tax structure,
removal of subsidies on consumption and production, etc. with a view to
fostering efficiency, higher levels of output, stability of prices, etc.
To what extent these objectives have been realised has rarely been
examined. Firoze (1986) is probably the only exception who concludes
that because of the structural weakness and adherence to just financial
criteria these programmes have resulted in accumulating structural
problems rather than alleviating them. These programmes also have
significant implications for employment, poverty and income
distribution.
The Search for a Stable Money Demand Function for Pakistan: An
Application of the Method of Cointegration
Authors: Hossain Akhtar
Published: August 2018

Despite an impressive number of studies on money demand in
Pakistan since the early 1970s, the question of stability of the money
demand function did not receive much attention. This paper examines the
question of whether there exists a stable money demand function in
Pakistan. The novelty of the study comes from the application of the
method of cointegration to Pakistani annual data over 1951-91.1 The
empirical findings of this study are somewhat different from those of
earlier studies on money demand in Pakistan and have monetary policy
implications. However, besides some inherent shortcomings of the method
of cointegration, one possible weakness of the paper is the use of data
which extend over the 1950s and 1960s when Bangladesh was a part of
Pakistan. It creates an unavoidable problem of data conformability. It
induced me to take the risk of being somewhat complacent about the
sample size as I report empirical results for a shorter sample period
1972-91. One consolation is that empirical findings for this sub-sample
appear qualitatively better than those obtained for the full sample
period.
Financial Liberalisation and the Demand for Money in
Pakistan
Authors: Khan Ashfaque H.
Published: August 2018

An efficient and liberalised fmancial sector is essential for
promoting economic growth and welfare. The process of fmancial
liberalisation through "deepening" and eliminating distortion and
segmentation of financial markets improves the process of the
mobilisation of savings as well as the efficiency of investment, thereby
accelerating the overall rate of economic growth. At the end of 1989
Pakistan undertook an ambitious financial sector reforms programme with
the aim to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy through greater
reliance on market forces. The main liberalisation policies were aimed
at liberalising interest rates, reducing controls on credit, enhancing
competition and efficiency in the fmancial system, strengthening the
supervisory framework, and promoting the growth and deepening of
fmancial markets.
Markets, Technological Change and Economic Growth (The
Quaid-i-Azam Lecture)
Authors: Lipsey Richard G.
Published: August 2018

I am honoured to be invited to give this lecture before so
distinguished an audience of development economists. For the last 21/2
years I have been director of a project financed by the Canadian
Institute for Advanced Research and composed of a group of scholars from
Canada, the United States, and Israel.I Our brief is to study the
determinants of long term economic growth. Although our primary focus is
on advanced industrial countries such as my own, some of us have come to
the conclusion that there is more common ground between developed and
developing countries than we might have first thought. I am, however, no
expert on development economics so I must let you decide how much of
what I say is applicable to economies such as your own. Today, I will
discuss some of the grand themes that have arisen in my studies with our
group. In the short time available, I can only allude to how these
themes are rooted in our more detailed studies. In doing this, I must
hasten to add that I speak for myself alone; our group has no corporate
view other than the sum of our individual, and very individualistic,
views.
Rent, State and the Market: The Political Economy of the
Transition to Self-sustained Capitalism (Distinguishedl Lecture)
Authors: Elsenhans Hartmut
Published: August 2018

In opposition to the now generalised critique of rent-seeking
the following contribution establishes the inevitable character of the
emergence of a rent problem in nearly any transition to capitalism from
pre-capitalist relations of production. The only possibility of avoiding
this possibility would be a rapid demographic decline or an equally
rapid increase in availability of productive land. This rent problem in
underdeveloped countries is aggravated by the existence of technically
more advanced economies. Integration into the world economy can
contribute to the management of this rent problem, but does not abolish
it. The topic of development economics is, therefore, the combination of
market regulation with non-market regulation in order to move the
respective underdeveloped economy to a state where.rent can be abolished
by the extension of the market mechanism. In contrast to the
recommendations of the Bretton Woods Institution, the mere reinforcement
of market regulation and the withdrawal of the state from economic
regulation cannot be considered as sufficient for moving underdeveloped
economies to self-sustained growth which allows market
regulation.
Recent Input-Output Price Policy in Pakistan's Agriculture: Effects on Producers and Consumers
Authors: M. Ghaffar Chaudhry
Published: August 2018

The paper analyses the impact of the input-output price policy in agriculture on producers and consumers. Trends in prices cause immense resource transfers from agriculture. with adverse consequences for investment, output, employment, and income distribution. To the extent that these transfers accrue to industrialists and the government, the poorest benefit the least. These deleterious effects can be minimised by assured world prices for agriculture and restoration of true competition in agricultural commodity and input marlcets. In agricultural input marlcets, elimination of corruption; excessive profiteering and overstaffing should serve as the basis of a cost reduction strategyand removal of input subsidies. In the specific case of irrigation water, equitable distribution, compatibility of water rate assessment and water supply bases, and elimination of overstaffing are the prime issues deserving immediate government attention.
Non-linear Speculative Bubbles in the Pakistani Stock Market
Authors: Ehsan Ahmed  , J. Barkley Rosser Jr.
Published: August 2018

Since 1987 many stock markeIs of the world have experienced volatility. This bas been true of many emerging stock markeIs. Our study of daily stock lIllI1'ket data from Pakistan between June 1987 and May 1993 finds the results to be consistent with the impression of great volatility and unpredictability thought to be common in such emerging markets. We used the VAR technique to estimaIe a "presumed" fundamental on stock indices using lagged first differences of natural logs of daily exchange rates and stock indices. We used the Hamilton switching model and associated Walk test to see if such speculative trends were present. We were significantly unable to rule them out. We then tested for ARCH effects, whose presence we failed to Ieject. We then used ARCHgenerated residuals to apply the BDS test of general non-linear structure. We failed to reject the lack of such non-linear structure quite significantly. Thus, the Pakistani stock market during the period of study seems to have exhibited quite complex dynamics, along with apparendy strong trends that may indicate the presence of speculative bubbles. This bas many important implications for Pakistani as well as other emerging markets.
Shirley A. White. Participatory Communication. New Delhi: Sage Publications. 1994.470 pp.Hardbound. Indian Rs 395.00.
Authors: Faiz Bilquees
Published: August 2018

This book is an extremely valuable addition to a very important topic concerning development issues at the grassroots level. It calls attention to the difficulties related to the participatory process in the absence of effective direct communication with the ultimate beneficiaries. It is divided in four parts. The first highlights the concept underlying the use of the word "participation", a buzz-word of recent times. The authors of the different articles in this part emphasise the need to change the current patterns of development which are completely non-participatory. They relate the failures of the participatory approach to misconceiving the notion as capable of a universal application in the developed and developing countries, without due regard to the absence of some very basic prerequisites in the latter countries. In other words, the assumptions underlying the theory of the participatory approach to development in the less developed countries are found lacking due to the very different and poor economic and socio-political infrastructures in these countries. Thus, the first four chapters suggest that unless the notion of participation is systematically extended to the national and international economic and political spheres, it would fail to be of much help beyond the rural development context.
Choice of Mode for the Worktrip in a Third World City: Karachi
Authors: Nuzhat Ahmad
Published: August 2018

The paper is an analysis of the demand for different travel modes in the city of Karachi. The model analyses the probability that an individual makes a certain choice as a function of the mode characteristics and transport system and the socio-economic characteristics of the individual traveller. The analysis focuses on the worktrip: The model used is the disaggregated probabilistic choice and it is estimated through the maximum likelihood multinomial logit technique. The data for the analysis comes from a sample of 5696 workers in the city of Karachi. The main determinants of the mode choice analysed are: transport-related characteristics (travel time, official transport, shared transport, peak-hour travel) and socioeconomic characteristics (number of dependents, income, head-of-households status, sex, type of occupation). The results show that the overall model is robust and has high prediction accuracy. The estimated model is useful since it is responsive to most variables and can be used to calculate the effect of changes in the various attributes on the demand for different travel modes. Estimates of the model can also be of value to planners, who can predict probabilities for different modes and calculate the effect of specific policy changes on the demand for travel.
Poonam Smith-Sreen. Accountability in Development Organisations: Experiences of Women s Organisations in India. New Delhi: Sage Publications, 1995.297 pp.Hardcover. Indian Rs 295.00.
Authors: Ghulam Yasin Soomro
Published: August 2018

There has been a transition in NGO actIVItIes over time, from the basic welfare orientation to various fields of development. This has been mainly due to the failure of the previous development strategies that emphasised on rates of economic growth, on the assumption that the top-down approach would initiate the process of trickle-down benefits to the poor. The assumed linkages were conceived without a knowledge of the working of the inter-linkages of cultural, social, political, and economic structural processes which led to the failure of such strategies. There appeared to be a need to evolve a workable methodology of development which could replace the top-down strategy. As a consequence of this search, a strategy of grassroots mobilisation of the recipient population was formulated so that they could take part in the process of development in terms of problem identification, project implementation, and its monitoring and evaluation. This strategy is popularly known as community participation. There are two important elements in this participatory approach: a two-way active communication between the community and the NGO to build trust and understanding, and the empowerment of the community towards decision-making for their own needs. This participatory approach is still viable and is a source of social change and development in many countries. The author of this book promises an advancement in this type of development strategy and suggests an alternative model and its method of accountability.
Public Sector Deficits and Private Investment: A Test of the Crowding-out Hypothesis in Pakistan's Manufacturing Industry
Authors: Robert E. Looney
Published: August 2018

The purpose of the analysis below is to assess whether this public sector crowding out of investment in manufacturing has been a major factor affecting the pattern of private capital formation in that sector. The results of modified Granger Causality test suggest that expanded public investment in infrastructure has not played an important role in stimulating private investment in industry. If anything, it appears that private investment has stimulated a follow-on expansion in infrastructure. Instead of crowding in (i.e., a positive feedback effect) additional private investment, infrastructure investment appears to have led to larger deficits and domestic borrowing. In tum, these financial developments have dampened the flows of private capital into the important large-scale manufacturing sector. On the other hand, financial crowding-out of private investment in large-scale manufacturing is a distinct possibility; but it may not be a simple, straight-forward process. The results obtained also suggest that private investment in large-scale manufacturing has suffered from real crowding-out associated with the government's noninfrastructural investment programme. Finally, it should be noted that neither financial nor real crowding-out seems to occur in other areas of private investment. Clearly, further research should be undertaken to determine why the large-scale manufacturing sector is unique in this regard.