bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The influence of source- and ground-motion model choices on probabilistic seismic hazard levels at 6 sites in France
Authors: Beauval Céline , Bard Pierre-Yves , Danciu Laurentiu
Published: June 2020

In this study focused on France, we explore the uncertainties related to choices made while building a source model for hazard assessment and we quantify the impact on probabilistic hazard estimates. Earthquake recurrence models are initially built from the French Seismic CATalog (FCAT, Manchuel et al. in Bull Earthq Eng, 2018.10.1007/s10518-017-0236-1). We set up a logic tree that includes two alternative seismogenic source models (ESHM13 and Baize et al. in Bull Soc Géol Fr 184(3):225–259, 2013), two versions of FCAT catalog, two alternative declustering algorithms, and three alternative minimum magnitudes for earthquake recurrence modeling. We calculate the hazard for six cities (i.e. Nantes, Lourdes, Clermont-Ferrand, Briançon, Nice and Strasbourg) that are located in source zones with a minimum amount of data to work with. Results are displayed for the PGA and spectral period 0.2 s, at return periods 475 and 5000 years. Exploration of the logic tree shows that the parameters with the most impact on hazard results are the minimum magnitude used in the recurrence modeling (up to 31%) and the selection of the seismogenic source model (up to 30%). We also use the SHARE European Earthquake Catalog (SHEEC, Woessner et al. in Bull Earthquake Eng, 2015.10.1007/s10518-015-9795-1) to build earthquake recurrence models and compare hazard values obtained with the FCAT logic tree. Comparisons are limited because of the low number of events available in some sources in SHEEC; however, results show that, depending on the site considered, the earthquake catalog selection can also strongly impact the hazard estimates (up to 50%). The FCAT logic tree is combined with four ground-motion models (Bindi et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 12(1):391–430, 2014; Boore et al. in Earthq Spectra 30(3):1057–1085, 2014; Cauzzi et al. in Bull Earthq Eng 13(6):1587–1612, 2015.10.1007/s10518-014-9685-y; Drouet and Cotton in Bull Seismol Soc Am 105(4):1883–1902, 2015) to account for the epistemic uncertainty on the prediction of ground-motion. Exploration of the logic tree shows that the contribution of ground-motion model uncertainties can be larger than, equivalent to, or lower than the contribution of the source-model uncertainties to the overall hazard variability. Which component controls overall uncertainty depends on the site, spectral period and return period. Finally, exploring the logic tree provides a distribution for the ratios between hazard levels at 5000 and 475 years return periods, revealing that the ratios only slightly depend on source-model uncertainties, vary strongly from site to site, and can take values between 3 and 5, which is significantly higher than what is commonly assumed in the engineering community.
Depth-distribution of lake benthic diatom assemblages in relation to light availability and substrate: implications for paleolimnological studies
Authors: Hofmann Andrea M. , Geist Juergen , Nowotny Lena , Raeder Uta
Published: June 2020

We analyzed the depth distributions of benthic diatoms in two adjacent, but hydrologically distinct subalpine lakes (Lakes Soiernseen, S-Germany). Lake Unterer Soiernsee is affected by marked water-level fluctuations and is light-penetrated to the bottom most of the year, while Lake Oberer Soiernsee provides more stable conditions and an extended aphotic zone. Mixed samples of epiphytic, epilithic, epipsammic and epipelic periphyton were taken in one-meter depth steps by scuba divers. Most of the common benthic diatoms occurred in distinct depth-areas. RDA analyses showed that depth was strongly correlated with species distribution in both lakes. Depth-constrained cluster analyses indicated three distinct diatom community zones in each lake. A shallow littoral zone hosting mainly epiphytic and epilithic species and a deeper littoral zone with mainly epipsammic and epipelic taxa existed in both lakes. Additionally, a highly disturbed near-shore littoral zone with diatoms adapted to unstable conditions (aerophilic taxa, pioneer species) was found in Lake Unterer Soiernsee, and a deep-water pelagic zone with mainly planktonic taxa in Lake Oberer Soiernsee. Light availability, substrate, physical stressors and nutrient concentrations were linked closely with water depth. While light availability affected the ratio of benthic and planktonic diatoms, substrate type influenced benthic diatom assemblage structures. Diatoms occurring in surficial sediments of the aphotic zone represent an ideal cross-section of the recent diatom assemblage of the lake, including benthic and planktonic species. However, sediment samples taken in light-flooded depths are inappropriate for studies based on shifts between benthic and planktonic taxa, because in situ benthic species dominate the surface-sediment assemblages, while settled tychoplanktonic and planktonic species occur less frequently. A diatom-inferred depth model was created for each lake to prove the usability for down-core studies using weighted-averaging approaches. For both lakes these models are highly appropriate to reconstruct past fluctuations in water-transparency or lake-level. With regard to the development of diatom-based TP-transfer-functions for Bavarian mountain lakes, we found it is highly important to consider lake depth and transparency. Based on the findings of this study we recommend the creation of two different training-sets, one for deep or low-transparency lakes with an aphotic zone including both benthic and planktonic diatoms, and another one for shallow, clear water lakes solely using benthic diatoms.
Investigating the quantity–quality relationship in scientific creativity: an empirical examination of expected residual variance and the tilted funnel hypothesis
Authors: Forthmann Boris , Leveling Mark , Dong Yixiao , Dumas Denis
Published: June 2020

Among scientists who study scientific production, the relationship between the quantity of a scientist’s production and the quality of their work has long been a topic of empirical research and theoretical debate. One principal theoretical perspective on the quantity–quality relationship has been the equal odds baseline, which posits that a scientist’s number of high-quality products increases linearly with their total number of products, and that there is a zero correlation between a scientist’s total number of products and the average quality of those products. While these central tenets of the equal odds baseline are well known, it also posits a number of more specific and less discussed aspects of the quality–quantity relation, including the expected residual variance and heteroscedastic errors when quality is regressed on quantity. After a careful examination of the expected variance by means of a non-parametric bootstrap approach, we forward a further prediction based on the heteroscedasticity implied by the equal-odds baseline that we term the tilted funnel hypothesis, that describes the shape of a bivariate scatterplot when quality is regressed on quantity, as well as the change in the strength of slope coefficients at different conditional quantiles of the quality distribution. In this study, we empirically test the expected residual variance and the tilted funnel hypothesis across three large datasets (including approximately 1.5 million inventors, 1800 psychologists, and 20,000 multidisciplinary scientists). Across all of the data sets, the results empirically supported the tilted funnel hypothesis, and therefore the results provided further evidence of the utility of the equal odds baseline.
Always look on the bright side of students: does valence of teacher perceptions relate to students’ educational performance?
Authors: Tandler Nancy , Dalbert Claudia
Published: June 2020

We studied the role of the valence of female teachers’ perceptions in predicting various student outcomes. Using a prospective design, at the beginning of Grade 5 (T1), we assessed evaluations by 43 female teachers of either mathematics or German, belonging to 22 secondary schools in Germany. We combined a qualitative measurement by using an open-ended question, with a quantitative data analysis. At T1 and T2 (4 months later), the assigned students (N = 635) reported their subject-specific achievement, learning and performance goals, and quality of relationship to their teacher. Multilevel analyses revealed that positive teacher perceptions increased future student achievement, while negative teacher perceptions reduced immediate and future learning and performance goals. Further, positive teacher perceptions explained differences in student outcomes between classes, whereas negative teacher perceptions explained differences in student outcomes between schools.
Consumer awareness campaign to reduce household food waste based on structural equation behavior modeling in Hungary
Authors: Szakos Dávid , Szabó-Bódi Barbara , Kasza Gyula
Published: June 2020

The aim of this study is to explore behavioral patterns behind household food waste with partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM). Results are based on a quantitative consumer survey with personal interviews. Sample (n = 1002) is representative of the adult population of Hungary in regard to age, sex, and geographical distribution. Statistical analysis included descriptive tests, variance analysis, principal component analysis, factor analysis, and PLS-SEM modeling. Based on multivariate tests, income, age, education, residence, and region were identified as the most influential socio-demographical factors of food wastage. Within the framework of the attitude model, the first PLS-SEM model (normative model) validated that all three—cognitive, affective, and conative—attitude components have an effect on food wastage behavior, but the conative component revealed to be the most important one. This underlines the importance of childhood education and awareness raising to shape routines and behavioral patterns with proper messages and impulses. Based on the second PLS-SEM model (explicative model), cooking too much food was identified as the most prominent pattern that influences food wastage. Contrary to anticipations, unplanned food purchase represented only minor significance. The results provided behavioral insights to a national level food waste prevention campaign in Hungary, called Wasteless (Maradék nélkül). This campaign plays an important role to meet the requirements of new EU legislation on food waste and the recommendations of EU Platform on Food Losses and Food Waste.
Regionalized environmental impacts of construction machinery
Authors: Ebrahimi Babak , Wallbaum Holger , Jakobsen Pål Drevland , Booto Gaylord Kabongo
Published: June 2020

Purpose

This study aims to establish a regionalized environmental impact assessment of construction machinery equipped with diesel engines certified by the European emission standard Stage V, and operated in cold climatic zones in Europe.

Method

The study quantifies potential environmental impacts associated with construction machinery over the entire lifecycle, from extraction of materials to the end-of-life. For the operation phase, a meso-level emission accounting method is applied to quantify tailpipe emissions for certain subcategories of construction machinery. This is achieved by determining the operational efficiency of each machine in terms of effective hours. The quantified emission data are then adjusted based on engine deterioration models to estimate the rate of increase in emissions throughout the lifetime of each machine. Finally, the CML impact assessment method is applied to inventory data to quantify potential environmental impacts.

Results

The study shows that tailpipe emissions, which largely depend on an engine’s fuel consumption, had the largest contribution to environmental impacts in most impact categories. At the same time, there was a positive correlation between the operation weight and the impacts of the machinery. Also, machinery with similar operation weight had relatively similar impact patterns due to similar driving factors and dependencies. In addition, network, sensitivity, and uncertainty analyses were performed to quantify the source of impacts and validate the robustness of the study. Results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the responsiveness of the studied systems is very sensitive to changes in the amount of fuel consumption. In addition, the uncertainty results showed that the domain of uncertainty increased as the operation weight subcategory of machinery increased.

Conclusion

This study extends previous work on the life cycle assessment (LCA) of construction machinery, and the methodology developed provides a basis for future extension and improvement in this field. The use of effective hours as the unit of operational efficiency helps to resolve uncertainties linked to lifetime and annual operation hours. Also, the obtained results can be of use for decision support and for assessing the impacts of transition from fossil fuels to alternative fuel types.
No Way Out or No Way In? The Effect of Standardization, Licensing, and Skills Specificity of the Initial and Target Occupations on Status Mobility
Authors: Vicari Basha , Unger Stefanie
Published: June 2020

Occupational mobility is becoming increasingly important today owing to technological change and changing requirements in the employment system. This article examines the extent to which institutional characteristics of occupations hamper intragenerational occupational mobility on the labor market. By combining data from the Adult Cohort of the German National Educational Panel Study (NEPS) with occupational information from the German Federal Employment Agency, we test the power of the characteristics of the initial and target occupations to explain horizontal and vertical status mobility. The occupational characteristics that we focus on are the standardization of certificates, occupational licensing, and the specificity of skills. Using multinomial logistic regression, we find that both initial and target occupations with such characteristics might generate mobility constraints and impede the correction of a disadvantageous starting position. Status increases are mainly possible from standardized to nonstandardized, from specific to nonspecific and, in some instances, from nonlicensed to licensed occupations.
Generationale Verpflichtungen – normative Muster und ihre Umsetzung
Authors: Bühler-Niederberger Doris
Published: June 2020

Das „generationing“ als Definition von Alterskategorien und Zurechnung von Individuen zu diesen regelt auch Verpflichtungen und Solidaritätserwartungen zwischen den Angehörigen so definierter Gruppen. Sowohl in Gesellschaften des globalen Nordens wie des Südens wird Solidarität wesentlich entlang von Alterslinien geregelt. Schematisierend lassen sich ein Independenz- und ein Interdependenzmodell unterscheiden: Sie erfassen je andere Verteilungen und ihnen zugrundeliegende normative Muster. Im ersten Fall steht eine durch Staat und Experten gestützte Vorstellung „guter Kindheit“ im Zentrum, im zweiten eine auf Traditionen rekurrierende und gesetzlich gestärkte Vorstellung von „filial piety“. So unterschiedlich die Verteilungen und Verteilungsregeln sind, kommt ihnen doch innerhalb der jeweiligen sozialen und kulturellen Kontexte eine hohe Selbstverständlichkeit und normative Verbindlichkeit zu. Generationale Verpflichtungen sind zwar ordnungsstiftend und schaffen Solidarität, benachteiligen dabei aber auch einzelne Gruppen systematisch im Zusammenspiel von familialen Interessen und staatlichen Regelungen. Der Aufsatz bietet einen systematischen Aufriss der beiden Modelle und bilanziert anhand von Länderbeispielen die Leistungen und Verwerfungen der jeweiligen generationalen Verteilungsregeln und ihrer Umsetzung.
Automated Detection of Interesting Properties in Regular Polygons
Authors: Kovács Zoltán
Published: June 2020

We demonstrate a systematic, automated way of discovery of a large number of new geometry theorems on regular polygons. The applied theory includes a formula by Watkins and Zeitlin on minimal polynomials of $$\cos \frac{2\pi }{n}$$

cos

2
π

n

, and a method by Recio and Vélez to discover a property in a plane geometry construction. This method exploits Wu’s idea on algebraizing the geometric setup and utilizes the theory of Gröbner bases. Also a bijective function is given that maps the investigated cases to the first natural numbers. Finally, several examples are shown that are all previously unknown results in planar Euclidean geometry.
A Low Dose of Nanoparticulate Silver Induces Mitochondrial Dysfunction and Autophagy in Adult Rat Brain
Authors: Skalska Joanna , Dąbrowska-Bouta Beata , Frontczak-Baniewicz Małgorzata , Sulkowski Grzegorz , Strużyńska Lidia
Published: June 2020

Extensive incorporation of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) into many medical and consumer products has raised concerns about biosafety. Since nanosilver accumulates persistently in the central nervous system, it is important to assess its neurotoxic impacts. We investigated a model of prolonged exposure of adult rats to a low environmentally relevant dose of AgNPs (0.2 mg/kg b.w.). Ultrastructural analysis revealed pathological alterations in mitochondria such as swelling and cristolysis. Besides, elongated forms of mitochondria were present. Level of adenosine triphosphate was not altered after exposure, although a partial drop of mitochondrial membrane potential was noted. Induction of autophagy with only early autophagic forms was observed in AgNP-exposed rat brains as evidenced by ultrastructural markers. Increased expression of two protein markers of autophagy, beclin 1 and microtubule-associated proteins 1A/1B light chain 3B (MAP LC3-II), was observed, indicating induction of autophagy. Expression of lysosome-related Rab 7 protein and cathepsin B did not change, suggesting inhibition of physiological flux of autophagy. Our results show that exposure to a low, environmentally relevant dose of AgNPs leads to induction of autophagy in adult rat brain in response to partial mitochondrial dysfunction and to simultaneous interfering with an autophagic pathway. The cell compensates for the defective autophagy mechanism via development of enhanced mitochondrial biodynamic.
Role of glycosylation in TGF-β signaling and epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition in cancer
Authors: Zhang Jing , ten Dijke Peter , Wuhrer Manfred , Zhang Tao
Published: June 2020

Glycosylation is a common posttranslational modification on membrane-associated and secreted proteins that is of pivotal importance for regulating cell functions. Aberrant glycosylation can lead to uncontrolled cell proliferation, cell-matrix interactions, migration and differentiation, and has been shown to be involved in cancer and other diseases. The epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition is a key step in the metastatic process by which cancer cells gain the ability to invade tissues and extravasate into the bloodstream. This cellular transformation process, which is associated by morphological change, loss of epithelial traits and gain of mesenchymal markers, is triggered by the secreted cytokine transforming growth factor-β (TGF-β). TGF-β bioactivity is carefully regulated, and its effects on cells are mediated by its receptors on the cell surface. In this review, we first provide a brief overview of major types of glycans, namely, N-glycans, O-glycans, glycosphingolipids and glycosaminoglycans that are involved in cancer progression. Thereafter, we summarize studies on how the glycosylation of TGF-β signaling components regulates TGF-β secretion, bioavailability and TGF-β receptor function. Then, we review glycosylation changes associated with TGF-β-induced epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition in cancer. Identifying and understanding the mechanisms by which glycosylation affects TGF-β signaling and downstream biological responses will facilitate the identification of glycans as biomarkers and enable novel therapeutic approaches.
Increased accuracy of calculated fatigue resistance of welds through consideration of the statistical size effect within the notch stress concept
Authors: Deinböck Andreas , Hesse Ann-Christin , Wächter Michael , Hensel Jonas , Esderts Alfons , Dilger Klaus
Published: June 2020

The notch stress concept has been established for fatigue life calculations of welded components. One of its advantages is that the S-N curve is not based on an S-N curve catalog in which the user has to identify a suitable FAT class; instead, a single S-N curve (based on modeling, failure location, and material) is used for different weld geometries. In return, however, the weld needs to be modeled in a detailed manner for finite element analysis. The evaluation of experimental fatigue results collected in a database shows a relatively high degree of scattering (low accuracy) of the strengths calculated according to the notch stress concept. With fatigue tests on different specimen geometries manufactured from the same welded base plates, a correlation between the highly stressed weld seam length and the experimentally determined notch stress strength can be observed. The fatigue strength decreases with the increasing length of the highly stressed weld seam area. The latter quantity can be calculated using the finite element simulations that are needed to determine the notch stress. The presented results are used to describe the statistical size effect as a qualitative influence and quantitative support factor that can be used within the notch stress concept to increase its accuracy.
Der Einfluss kriterialer, sozialer und individueller Bezugsnormen auf das experimentbezogene Fähigkeitsselbstkonzept
Authors: Atzert Ramona , John Rebecca , Preisfeld Angelika , Damerau Karsten
Published: June 2020

Schüler*innen sind immer weniger von ihren naturwissenschaftlichen Fähigkeiten überzeugt. Um diesem Problem im Kontext naturwissenschaftlichen Unterrichts begegnen zu können, gilt es, die auf das naturwissenschaftliche Fähigkeitsselbstkonzept (FSK) wirkenden Faktoren zu identifizieren. Individuelle, soziale und kriteriale Bezugsnormen üben einen nachweisbaren Einfluss auf schulische FSK aus. Welche Bezugsnorm Schüler*innen zur Einschätzung ihres experimentbezogenen FSK heranziehen ist Gegenstand der vorliegenden Studie. Diese wurde mit 169 Schüler*innen der gymnasialen Oberstufe realisiert. Hierzu wurde der FbeFSK (Fragebogen zur Erfassung des bezugsnormbelasteten experimentbezogenen FSK) eingesetzt, welcher – in Orientierung an den Skalen zur Erfassungen des schulischen Selbstkonzepts (SESSKO) – das experimentbezogene FSK in drei bezugsnormbelasteten Skalen (individuell, sozial, kriterial) und einer absoluten Skala erfasst. Dessen Validität wurde faktoranalytisch überprüft und die Reliabilität optimiert. Die resultierenden Skalen wurden in multiplen Regressionsanalysen eingesetzt, um den Einfluss der drei bezugsnormbelasteten Skalen auf das experimentbezogene FSK zu untersuchen. Ein besonders hoher positiver Einfluss des kriterialbelasteten FSK auf das absolute experimentbezogene FSK kann festgestellt werden. Der Vergleich der standardisierten Regressionskoeffizienten zeigt jedoch kaum einen Einfluss der beiden anderen Prädiktoren. Neben der Qualität der Skalen und den Ursachen der Befunde werden Implikationen für die Praxis des naturwissenschaftlichen Experimentalunterrichts diskutiert.
Discrimination against people with disabilities in accessing microfinance
Authors: Sarker Debashis
Published: June 2020

The purpose of this paper is to explore the state of existing research on microfinance lending discrimination against people with disabilities. It argues that existing literature suggests people with disabilities face notable discrimination in accessing microfinance (Labie et al., 2015). The attitudes of employees within microfinance institutions (MFIs) are one of the principal sources of such discrimination, which has important implications for the lives of people with disabilities (Cramm & Finkenﬂugel, 2008; Mersland, Bwire & Mukasa, 2009; Labie et al., 2015). Moreover, studies conducted by Beisland & Mersland (2012) and Nuwagaba et al. (2012) found that people with disabilities tend not to apply for microfinance due to the anticipation of such rejection. People with disabilities face both “taste-based discrimination” (prejudice) and “statistical discrimination” (when a decision-maker uses individuals’ observable characteristics as a substitute for unobservable ones). It is reasonable to assume that reducing discrimination in the microfinance market would greatly benefit existing and prospective entrepreneurs with disabilities. However, this requires targeted interventions aimed at inducing systematic institutional reforms, changing the mindsets of employees and people with disabilities, and integrating appropriate accommodations within microfinance operations. In order to implement these changes, I conclude that microfinance regulators must work to identify areas of discrimination that are not correctly covered by existing lending practices.
Integrating Digital Datasets into Public Engagement through ArcGIS StoryMaps
Authors: Howland Matthew D. , Liss Brady , Levy Thomas E. , Najjar Mohammad
Published: June 2020

Archaeologists have a responsibility to use their research to engage people and provide opportunities for the public to interact with cultural heritage and interpret it on their own terms. This can be done through hypermedia and deep mapping as approaches to public archaeology. In twenty-first-century archaeology, scholars can rely on vastly improved technologies to aid them in these efforts toward public engagement, including digital photography, geographic information systems, and three-dimensional models. These technologies, even when collected for analysis or documentation, can be valuable tools for educating and involving the public with archaeological methods and how these methods help archaeologists learn about the past. Ultimately, academic storytelling can benefit from making archaeological results and methods accessible and engaging for stakeholders and the general public. ArcGIS StoryMaps is an effective tool for integrating digital datasets into an accessible framework that is suitable for interactive public engagement. This article describes the benefits of using ArcGIS StoryMaps for hypermedia and deep mapping–based public engagement using the story of copper production in Iron Age Faynan, Jordan, as a case study.
Achieving Economically Feasible Drinking Water Regulation
Authors: Belzer Richard B.
Published: June 2020

United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has regulated drinking water since the 1974 Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA). Congress directed it to achieve three conflicting goals: (i) establish stringent nationwide standards, (ii) ensure that these standards are both technologically and economically feasible, and (iii) accommodate significant differences in cost among water systems of different sizes with different water sources. USEPA chose to emphasize goal (i) at the expense of (ii) and (iii). In 1986, Congress intensified its preference for (i), was silent concerning goal (ii), and criticized USEPA for failing to achieve goal (iii). In lieu of economic feasibility, the Agency substituted “affordability,” defined as expenditures up to 2.5 % of national median household income irrespective of the benefits. This imposed deadweight losses, and substantial inequities on rural areas, low-income communities, and low-income households generally. In 1996, Congress directed USEPA to use benefit-cost analysis positively and normatively. Regulations issued since 1996 do not appear to comply, however. A review of post-1996 drinking water standards indicates that most were certified by USEPA as having benefits that justified costs, but these determinations were unsupported by the Agency’s own regulatory impact analyses. This article proposes that USEPA define by regulation that “economic feasibility” means marginal benefits exceed marginal costs for the smallest water system subject to SDWA, and that all future drinking water standards must be economically feasible. Economic efficiency would be greatly enhanced and the pervasive inequities of “affordability” greatly diminished. Unlike “affordability,” this definition is objective and compatible with lay intuition about the meaning of key regulatory terms.
Single Parameter Estimation Approach for Robust Estimation of SIR Model With Limited and Noisy Data: The Case for COVID-19
Authors: Senel Kerem , Ozdinc Mesut , Ozturkcan Selcen
Published: June 2020

Objective:

The susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model and its variants are widely used to predict the progress of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide, despite their rather simplistic nature. Nevertheless, robust estimation of the SIR model presents a significant challenge, particularly with limited and possibly noisy data in the initial phase of the pandemic.

Methods:

The K-means algorithm is used to perform a cluster analysis of the top 10 countries with the highest number of COVID-19 cases, to observe if there are any significant differences among countries in terms of robustness.

Results:

As a result of model variation tests, the robustness of parameter estimates is found to be particularly problematic in developing countries. The incompatibility of parameter estimates with the observed characteristics of COVID-19 is another potential problem. Hence, a series of research questions are visited.

Conclusions:

We propose a Single Parameter Estimation (SPE) approach to circumvent these potential problems if the basic SIR is the model of choice, and we check the robustness of this new approach by model variation and structured permutation tests. Dissemination of quality predictions is critical for policy- and decision-makers in shedding light on the next phases of the pandemic.
Are There Any Epistemic Consequentialists?
Authors: Ho Tsung-Hsing
Published: June 2020

Selim Berker argues (1) that epistemic consequentialism is pervasive in epistemology and (2) that epistemic consequentialism is structurally flawed. (1) is incorrect, however. I distinguish between epistemic consequentialism and epistemic instrumentalism and argue that most putative consequentialists should be considered instrumentalists. I also identify the structural problem of epistemic consequentialism Berker attempts to pinpoint and show that epistemic instrumentalism does not have the consequentialist problem.
Clean source of soft X-ray radiation formed in supersonic Ar gas jets by high-contrast femtosecond laser pulses of relativistic intensity
Authors: Alkhimova Maria , Ryazantsev Sergey , Skobelev Igor , Boldarev Alexey , Feng Jie , Lu Xin , Chen Li-Ming , Pikuz Sergey
Published: June 2020

In this work, we optimized a clean, versatile, compact source of soft X-ray radiation

$(E_{\text{x}\text{-}\text{ray}}\sim 3~\text{keV})$

with an yield per shot up to

$7\times 10^{11}~\text{photons}/\text{shot}$

in a plasma generated by the interaction of high-contrast femtosecond laser pulses of relativistic intensity

$(I_{\text{las}}\sim 10^{18}{-}10^{19}~\text{W}/\text{cm}^{2})$

with supersonic argon gas jets. Using high-resolution X-ray spectroscopy approaches, the dependence of main characteristics (temperature, density and ionization composition) and the emission efficiency of the X-ray source on laser pulse parameters and properties of the gas medium was studied. The optimal conditions, when the X-ray photon yield reached a maximum value, have been found when the argon plasma has an electron temperature of

$T_{\text{e}}\sim 185~\text{eV}$

, an electron density of

$N_{\text{e}}\sim 7\times 10^{20}~\text{cm}^{-3}$

and an average charge of

$Z\sim 14$

. In such a plasma, a coefficient of conversion to soft X-ray radiation with energies

$E_{\text{x}\text{-}\text{ray}}\sim 3.1\;(\pm 0.2)~\text{keV}$

reaches

$8.57\times 10^{-5}$

, and no processes leading to the acceleration of electrons to MeV energies occur. It was found that the efficiency of the X-ray emission of this plasma source is mainly determined by the focusing geometry. We confirmed experimentally that the angular distribution of the X-ray radiation is isotropic, and its intensity linearly depends on the energy of the laser pulse, which was varied in the range of 50–280 mJ. We also found that the yield of X-ray photons can be notably increased by, for example, choosing the optimal laser pulse duration and the inlet pressure of the gas jet.
Global calculation of neoclassical impurity transport including the variation of electrostatic potential
Authors: Fujita Keiji , Satake S. , Kanno R. , Nunami M. , Nakata M. , García-Regaña J. M. , Velasco J. L. , Calvo I.
Published: June 2020

Recently, the validity range of the approximations commonly used in neoclassical calculation has been reconsidered. One of the primary motivations behind this trend is observation of an impurity hole in LHD (Large Helical Device), i.e. the formation of an extremely hollow density profile of an impurity ion species, such as carbon

$\text{C}^{6+}$

, in the plasma core region where a negative radial electric field (

$E_{r}$

) is expected to exist. Recent studies have shown that the variation of electrostatic potential on the flux surface,

$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6F7}_{1}$

, has significant impact on neoclassical impurity transport. Nevertheless, the effect of

$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6F7}_{1}$

has been studied with radially local codes and the necessity of global calculation has been suggested. Thus, we have extended a global neoclassical code, FORTEC-3D, to simulate impurity transport in an impurity hole plasma including

$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6F7}_{1}$

globally. Independently of the

$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6F7}_{1}$

effect, an electron root of the ambipolar condition for the impurity hole plasma has been found by global simulation. Hence, we have considered two different cases, each with a positive (global) and a negative (local) solution of the ambipolar condition, respectively. Our result provides another support that

$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6F7}_{1}$

has non-negligible impact on impurity transport. However, for the ion-root case, the radial

$\text{C}^{6+}$

flux is driven further inwardly by

$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6F7}_{1}$

. For the electron-root case, on the other hand, the radial particle

$\text{C}^{6+}$

flux is outwardly enhanced by

$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6F7}_{1}$

. These results indicate that how

$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6F7}_{1}$

affects the radial particle transport crucially depends on the profile of the ambipolar-

$E_{r}$

, which is found to be susceptible to

$\unicode[STIX]{x1D6F7}_{1}$

itself and the global effects.
No ‘Signs of Weakness’: Gendered violence and masculine authority on the North-West Frontier of British India
Authors: KOLSKY ELIZABETH
Published: June 2020

On 14 April 1923, in the dead of night, an English girl was kidnapped from her bedroom in a military bungalow in the Kohat Cantonment on India's North-West Frontier. The kidnapping is a notorious incident that has been told and retold in multiple languages, disciplines, and media for almost a century. From the colonial perspective, the kidnapping was seen as an ‘outrage’ that demonstrated the lawless savagery of the tribes who inhabited this strategically significant Indo-Afghan borderland. From the local perspective, the kidnappers led by Ajab Khan Afridi were valiant heroes who boldly challenged an alien and oppressive regime. This article adopts a gendered lens of historical analysis to argue that the case offers important conceptual insights about the colonial preoccupation with frontier security. In the British empire, the idea of the frontier signified a racial line dividing civilization from savagery. The colonial frontier was also a zone of hyper-masculinity where challenges to state power were met with brutal violence in a muscular performance of masculine authority. In this space where ‘no signs of weakness’ could be shown, the abduction of Molly Ellis represented an assault on the fictive image of white, male invincibility and the race–gender hierarchy that defined the colonial system.
Just Not in the Neighbourhood: China's Views on the Application of the Responsibility to Protect in the DPRK
Authors: Fung Courtney J.
Published: June 2020

Much has been written about China's active engagement and progressive approach to the “responsibility to protect,” a norm that reframes state sovereignty not as a right but as a responsibility. China's response to the “Report of the UN Commission of Inquiry on human rights in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK),” which invokes the norm, however, challenges existing literature. China flatly refuses to uphold the responsibility to protect in the case of the DPRK, despite using previously supported standards to invoke the norm elsewhere and the report's dozens of consensual recommendations. This article is the first to systematically investigate how China has responded to the report. It shows that China's responses are shaped by its exceptionalism and concerns that the responsibility to protect could lead to regime change. I conclude with implications for the broader question of China's engagement with international norms in its near abroad. In my discussion, I draw on interviews with Korean and Chinese foreign policy elites, UN and US officials and DPRK human rights advocates, as well as primary and secondary documents.
Boots on the ground: the role of passive acoustic monitoring in evaluating anti-poaching patrols
Authors: Astaras Christos , Linder Joshua M , Wrege Peter , Orume Robinson , Johnson Paul J , Macdonald David W
Published: June 2020

Passive acoustic monitoring is rapidly gaining recognition as a practical, affordable and robust tool for measuring gun hunting levels within protected areas, and consequently for its potential to evaluate anti-poaching patrols’ effectiveness based on outcome (i.e., change in hunting pressure) rather than effort (e.g., kilometres patrolled) or output (e.g., arrests). However, there has been no report to date of a protected area successfully using an acoustic grid to explore baseline levels of gun hunting activity, adapting its patrols in response to the evidence extracted from the acoustic data and then evaluating the effectiveness of the new patrol strategy. We report here such a case in Cameroon’s Korup National Park, where anti-poaching patrol effort was markedly increased in the 2015–2016 Christmas/New Year holiday season to curb the annual peak in gunshots recorded by a 12-sensor acoustic grid in the same period during the previous 2 years. Despite a three- to five-fold increase in patrol days, distance and area covered, the desired outcome – lower gun hunting activity – was not achieved under the new patrol scheme. The findings emphasize the need for adaptive wildlife law enforcement and how passive acoustic monitoring can help attain this goal, and they warn about the risks of using effort-based metrics of anti-poaching strategies as a surrogate for desired outcomes. We propose ways of increasing protected areas’ capacity to adopt acoustic grids as a law enforcement monitoring tool.
Mortality and survival of COVID-19
Authors: Sousa G. J. B. , Garces T. S. , Cestari V. R. F. , Florêncio R. S. , Moreira T. M. M. , Pereira M. L. D.
Published: June 2020

This study aims to identify the risk factors associated with mortality and survival of COVID-19 cases in a state of the Brazilian Northeast. It is a historical cohort with a secondary database of 2070 people that presented flu-like symptoms, sought health assistance in the state and tested positive to COVID-19 until 14 April 2020, only moderate and severe cases were hospitalised. The main outcome was death as a binary variable (yes/no). It also investigated the main factors related to mortality and survival of the disease. Time since the beginning of symptoms until death/end of the survey (14 April 2020) was the time variable of this study. Mortality was analysed by robust Poisson regression, and survival by Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression. From the 2070 people that tested positive to COVID-19, 131 (6.3%) died and 1939 (93.7%) survived, the overall survival probability was 87.7% from the 24th day of infection. Mortality was enhanced by the variables: elderly (HR 3.6; 95% CI 2.3–5.8; P < 0.001), neurological diseases (HR 3.9; 95% CI 1.9–7.8; P < 0.001), pneumopathies (HR 2.6; 95% CI 1.4–4.7; P < 0.001) and cardiovascular diseases (HR 8.9; 95% CI 5.4–14.5; P < 0.001). In conclusion, mortality by COVID-19 in Ceará is similar to countries with a large number of cases of the disease, although deaths occur later. Elderly people and comorbidities presented a greater risk of death.
Implementing standard screening for autism spectrum disorder in CHD
Authors: Tan Alexander , Semmel Eric S. , Wolf Ian , Hammett Bailee , Ilardi Dawn
Published: June 2020

Introduction:

While the overall prevalence of autism is 1.7% in the United States of America, research has demonstrated a two- to five-fold increase in CHD. The Cardiac Neurodevelopmental Outcome Collaborative recommends screening for autism from infancy through adolescence. This study investigated the frequency of autism concerns at a single Cardiac Neurodevelopmental Program and examined current clinical practice as a way to improve quality of care.

Materials and methods:

Patients (n = 134; mean age = 9.0 years) included children with high-risk CHD who completed a neurodevelopmental evaluation following a formalised referral to the Cardiac Neurodevelopmental Program between 2018 and 2019. Retrospective chart review included parent report on theBehaviour Assessment System for Children-3andAdaptive Behaviour Assessment System-3. Descriptive and correlation analyses were completed.

Results:

In this sample, 11.2% presented with autism-related concerns at referral, 2 were diagnosed with autism, 9 were referred to an autism specialist (6 confirmed diagnosis; 3 not completed). Thus, at least 5.9% of the sample were diagnosed with autism following thorough clinical evaluation. Analyses showed atypicality, along with deficient adaptability, leisure, social, and communication skills. Frequency of early intervention, school supports, and relation with comorbidities are reported.

Discussion:

Prior to assessment recommendations by the Cardiac Neurodevelopmental Outcome Collaborative, autism screening may not be completed systematically in clinical care for CHD. The current sample demonstrates a high frequency of autism in the typically referred clinical sample. Commonly used parent-report measures may reveal concerns but will not help diagnosis. Systematic use of an autism screener is essential.
Pregnancy Outcomes of Wives of Chemical and Non-Chemical Weapons Exposed Veterans in Ahvaz, Iran: A Retrospective Cohort Study
Authors: Karimi Leila , Miller Andrew C. , Castro Bigalli Alberto A. , Makvandi Somaye , Amini Hossein , Vahedian-Azimi Amir
Published: June 2020

Background:

Sulphur mustard (HD) is a lipophilic caustic alkylating vesicant (blister agent) that has mutagenic and carcinogenic effects. Among the studied perturbations are long-term genitourinary (GU) and fertility effects. Approximately 50,000 Iranian soldiers and civilians were exposed to HD during the Iraq-Iran war (1980-1989). This study questioned the wives of Iraq-Iran war veterans to determine the effects of male HD-exposure on pregnancy complications, adverse pregnancy outcomes, and secondary infertility.

Methods:

A retrospective, survey-based cohort study was conducted of wives of Iranian military veterans that survived HD-associated injuries while serving in Ahvaz, Iran during the Iraq-Iran war (1980-1989), as compared to non-exposed veterans serving concomitantly. Patients were identified from a database of injured veterans maintained by the Foundation of Martyrs and Veterans Affairs (Iran) via a systematic random sampling method utilizing a random number table. Using a validated questionnaire, collected data included: demographics; type and severity of chemical injury; spouse’s obstetric history (pregnancy number, duration, complications, and outcomes before and after spouse’s chemical injury); and secondary infertility.

Results:

An increase in spontaneous abortion (P = .03), congenital anomalies (P < .0001), and secondary infertility (P = .003) were observed. These findings were greatest amongst those with HD injuries affecting >50% body surface area. No difference in stillbirth, premature birth, or low birth weight was observed.

Conclusion:

Exposure to HD in combat may have long-lasting fertility effects on soldiers and their spouses, including spontaneous abortion, congenital anomalies, and secondary infertility. Further investigation is needed into the long-term effects of HD exposure as well as methods to better protect soldiers.
Powerless Conservatives or Powerless Findings?
Authors: Utych Stephen M.
Published: June 2020

Noting the lack of “anti-man” bias research in the 2016 election, Zigerell (2019) argued that a relative lack of conservatives in political science can lead to bias in publications against political science research supporting conservative viewpoints. This article offers an alternative explanation for this lack of research: that this research produces null findings and therefore is subject to the “file-drawer problem,” in which null effects are less likely to be published than positive effects. Using data from the 2016 American National Election Studies, I provide an illustrative example to support this claim and suggest some solutions.
Associations between unmet palliative care needs and cognitive impairment in a sample of diverse, community-based older adults
Authors: Kozlov Elissa , Wynn Matthew J. , Reid M. Carrington , Henderson Charles R. , Dong XinQi , Sirey Jo Anne
Published: June 2020

Objective

Given a large number of community-based older adults with mild cognitive impairment, it is essential to better understand the relationship between unmet palliative care (PC) needs and mild cognitive impairment in community-based samples.

Method

Participants consisted of adults ages 60+ receiving services at senior centers located in New York City. The Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) and the Unmet Palliative Care Needs screening tool were used to assess participants’ cognitive status and PC needs.

Results

Our results revealed a quadratic relationship between unmet PC needs and mild cognitive impairment, controlling for gender, living status, and age. Participants with either low or high MoCA scores reported lower PC needs than participants with average MoCA scores, mean difference of the contrast (low and high vs. middle) = 2.15, P = 0.08.

Significance of results

This study is a first step toward elucidating the relationship between cognitive impairment and PC needs in a diverse community sample of older adults. More research is needed to better understand the unique PC needs of older adults with cognitive impairment living in the community.