Comprehensive Data Analysis and Forecasting of Covid19 Outbreak in India (Preprint)
Authors: Thakur Amit , Singh Rajesh , Gehlot Anita , Akram Shaik Vaseem , Das Prabin Kumar 
Published: April 2020

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 is chronic based disease which is spreading with rapid pace in the entire world. Present study addresses the situation of outbreak of the COVID-19 disease in India and estimate the rise of the cases in India. This study addresses the present health infrastructure, infected health workforce clearly with the statistics. Support Vector Machine and Linear Regression are implemented in this study for predicting the expected cases. For the purpose of modelling, the input data of number of cases is considered from the march 15th , 2020. With the input data, the two models are trained for prediction of the cases. In the end, the results show that support vector machine and linear regression are giving good accuracy for prediction.

OBJECTIVE

The current studies aim to analyze and estimate the developments in the near future with reference to COVID-19 in India. The research is also planned to look at the preparation level of Indian government for this outbreak. The scope of the study is narrowed to build prediction models for the Indian region and uses SVMs for prediction methods based on time series that are easily built and readable under these crucial conditions. The study does not cover coverage of a COVID-19 outbreak for any other country.

METHODS

Support Vector Machine and Linear Regression are implemented in this study for predicting the expected cases. For the purpose of modelling, the input data of number of cases is considered from the march 15th , 2020. With the input data, the two models are trained for prediction of the cases. In the end, the results show that support vector machine and linear regression are giving good accuracy for prediction.

RESULTS

1.Considering the change, the change in slope of the both curves in the graph, it can be concluded that the trained model is giving a quite good range of accuracy.
2.The Graph shows the plot of the predicted values and actual values fed during the testing of model. Considering the change, the change in slope of the both curves in the graph, it can be concluded that the trained model is giving a quite good range of accuracy.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, the present work emphasized on presenting observations and predictions about COVID-19 outbreaks in the Indian region. Although the rate of growth at world level is not equal to the rate of growth, the situation appears dangerous as India is heading towards exponential growth. The expected patients are reaching in millions in the next 30 days by means of two separate time series forecasting models. With regard to the poor health facilities, it is going to difficult to combat the outbreak of virus without government addressing the effective measurements. Contrast to strict lockdown, social distancing, isolation, patient testing and medical care need to implement with war base for combating the pandemic in India. The forecasting in this study are still in beginning phases as the historical data is limit for creating reliable model. That to the risen of cases in India followed from the last 10 days so the training for the model may not be accurate, however the prediction model would be enhanced from existing models, as the greater number of medical and demographic data is available.Furthermore, even if the predictions are 60-70 percent correct, then the nation will also encounter this quite hard days.