bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Geothermal reservoir modelling by using dynamic unstructured meshes for improved heat recovery in highly heterogeneous reservoirs
Authors: Salinas Pablo , Regnier Geraldine , Jacquemyn Carl , Pain Christopher C. , Jackson Matthew D.
Published: March 2022

Numerical modelling of fluid flow and heat transport in geothermal reservoirs can be very challenging. One reason is the broad range of length-scales that control the flow behaviour, spanning several orders of magnitude from fractures (millimetre-scale) and wells (metre-scale) to facies architecture and faults (kilometre-scale). The usual approach for modelling geothermal reservoirs is to discretise the equations using the finite-volume method and variants thereof to ensure mass conservation, subdividing space onto a fixed, structured mesh. However, using a fixed mesh resolution across the entire model domain can be very computationally expensive, and prohibitive if the model must resolve many length-scales.

Here we report an efficient method to apply dynamic mesh optimisation (DMO) to model geothermal reservoirs. DMO is widely used in other areas of computational fluid dynamics because it offers significant advantages in providing higher resolution, multi-scale solutions at much lower computational cost. However, application of DMO to geothermal reservoir modelling has so far been very limited.

The method reported here uses a surface-based representation of all geological heterogeneity that should be captured in the model. The numerous surfaces in the model represent geologic features such as faults, fractures, and boundaries between rock types with different material properties. The surfaces bound rock volumes, termed geologic domains, within which material properties are constant. When simulating flow and heat transport, the mesh dynamically adapts to optimize the representation of key solutions metrics of interest such as temperature, pressure, flow velocity or fluid saturation, but the surface architecture is preserved. The advantage of this approach is that up-, cross- or down-scaling of material properties during DMO is not required, as the properties are uniform within each geologic domain.

We demonstrate the method using a number of example problems, including complex wells. Another advantage of our approach is that well trajectories are accurately represented as the mesh conforms to the wells. The well trajectory is also preserved during DMO. We show that more accurate results are obtained at lower computational cost as compared to conventional, fixed mesh approaches.
Comparisons of historical CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols for the drought indices of Turkey
Authors: Dursun Bahattin Can , Yogun Buket , Hazar İpeknur , Aksu Aleyna Nur , Tan Elcin
Published: March 2022

Located in the semi-arid region, Turkey is much more vulnerable to the drought effects of climate change. It is expected that the severity, duration, and frequency of drought episodes will increase due to climate change. The observations reveal that the drought episodes in Turkey have increased dramatically over the last decade. For example, in 2020, the occupancy rates of dams in Istanbul dropped below 30%. Therefore, the accuracy of the projections of climate models is essential in developing adaptation strategies related to drought types. Therefore, the study aims to compare the bias of the runoff and moisture content of the climate projection models (NorESM1-M and NorESM2; FGOALS-g2 and FGOALS-g3; and GFDL-CM3 and GFDL-CM4) with the observations. In addition, the scenarios in the CMIP5 and CMIP6 protocols were compared by calculating the probability distribution functions of the flow data for ten-year periods. In addition, consecutive dry days index (ECACDD), warm spell duration index (ECAHWFI), water storage deficit index, and Palmer drought severity index are also analyzed. Preliminary conclusions indicate that climate models vary significantly in capturing historical events. For this reason, an ensemble of the models needs to be created for decision-making purposes.
Multi-spacecraft Observations of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections between 0.3 and 2.2 AU: Conjunctions with the Juno Spacecraft
Authors: Davies Emma , Winslow Réka , Scolini Camilla , Forsyth Robert , Möstl Christian
Published: March 2022

We present a catalogue of 35 interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) observed by the Juno spacecraft during its cruise phase to Jupiter in conjunction with at least one other spacecraft at heliocentric distances near or less than 1 AU (by MESSENGER, Venus Express, Wind, or STEREO). Previous ICME catalogues are used to find conjunctions between spacecraft, and events with magnetic field features that can be matched unambiguously across different spacecraft are selected. We conduct a multi-spacecraft analysis of ICME properties between 0.3 and 2.2 AU: we first investigate the global expansion of ICMEs by tracking the variation in magnetic field strength with increasing heliocentric distance of individual events, finding significant variability in magnetic field relationships for individual events in comparison with statistical trends. With the availability of plasma data at 1 AU, local and global expansion rates are compared; despite following expected trends, the local and global expansion rates are weakly correlated. Finally, for those events with clearly identifiable magnetic flux ropes, we investigate their magnetic complexity as they propagate; we find that 60% of events undergo at least one change in complexity between observations at the innermost spacecraft and Juno. The multi-spacecraft catalogue produced in this study provides a valuable link between ICME observations in the inner heliosphere and beyond 1 AU, contributing to our understanding of ICME evolution in situ. We intend the catalogue to be a useful resource for future studies of ICMEs and space weather research at Earth and other planets.
How do CO2 fluxes relate to groundwater table on a yearly and seasonal scale in Dutch drained peatlands used for dairy farming?
Authors: Aben Ralf , Van den Berg Merit , Boonman Jim , Van de Craats Daniel , Fritz Christian , Van der Velde Ype , Kruijt Bart , Hefting Mariet , Hessel Rudi , Hutjes Ronald , van Asselen Sanneke , Erkens Gilles ,   NOBV consortium
Published: March 2022

Rewetting of drained peatlands is a proposed measure to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Worldwide, drained peatlands are responsible for 9–15 % of the total GHG emission and reducing these emissions therefore has a large potential to combat climate warming. In the Netherlands, almost all peatlands are drained and 85% are in agricultural use. The Dutch government has set the aim to reduce the yearly emission from peatlands with 1 Mton by 2030. Different measures are proposed to achieve this goal. There is, however, insufficient data to determine the magnitude of GHG emissions from Dutch peatlands and to validate the effects of mitigation measures. Therefore, in 2019, the National Research Program on Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Peatlands (NOBV) was initiated. In this program we use transparent automated flux chambers, eddy covariance and aircraft measurements, combined with a network of groundwater, soil and meteorological sensors, to perform long-term unattended measurements of soil-atmosphere GHG fluxes and relevant environmental variables on different dairy farms in the Netherlands. We aim to quantify emission magnitudes and monitor the effects of elevated summer water tables (using subsoil irrigation as mitigation measure) as well as develop models that predict GHG emissions and the effects of rewetting measures on a national scale.

In this presentation we will show the CO2 flux results of the first two monitoring years of five drained peatlands. We will present the effects of elevating groundwater levels during the summer period with subsoil irrigation and discuss the differences between sites and years. In the wet year (2021) the mitigation effect was much less than in the dry year (2020), in some cases even negative, and mitigation effects strongly varied among locations. Aggregating data from all 5 sites shows that soil temperature and water table depth are important predictors for ecosystem respiration. However, overall, CO2 fluxes did not show a clear relationship with water table depth after controlling for temperature. Only a water table depth < -20 cm showed clear potential for emission reduction.
Effect of varying aerosol forcing on the Indian summer monsoon in an intermediate complexity climate model
Authors: Recchia Lucy , Lucarini Valerio
Published: March 2022

The Indian summer monsoon is a key meteorological event in the Indian calendar, bringing approximately 80% of India’s annual rainfall over the months of June—September. How the monsoon system will react to a changing future climate is of crucial importance for India’s agriculture, industry and economy.

 

Uncertainty remains in the future climate projections of the Indian monsoon,  primarily due to uncertainties in the amount and composition of aerosols over the Asian region. A further complication is that greenhouse gases, expected to increase over the next 50 years and dominate over aerosol forcing, have a directly competing effect on the monsoon. Generally, greenhouse gases act to heat the Earth’s surface, enabling greater moisture uptake and enhancing monsoonal precipitation. In contrast, aerosols have a cooling effect at the surface. The presence of aerosols is analogous to anomalous heating in the mid-troposphere, increasing the static stability of the atmosphere, which is associated with a weakening of the large-scale circulation and thus a weakening of the monsoon. 

 

We use the Planet Simulator (PlaSim), an intermediate complexity climate model, to investigate the interplay between varying aerosol and greenhouse gas forcing, in relation to the Indian summer monsoon. The model is modified to include anomalous heating in the mid-troposphere, which represents the presence of aerosols and effectively cools the surface. Varying the intensity and location of aerosol forcing, as well doubling the amount of carbon dioxide, alters the spatial pattern of precipitation over the Asian region. Increasing the anomalous heating to 150 Watts and applying over the regions of India, East China and Southeast Asia, significantly weakens the large-scale circulation and reduces the summer precipitation to 10-20% of a normal year; essentially a breakdown of the monsoon system. Through modelling sensitivity studies, we define a safe operating space of future climate conditions, where the Indian and East Asian monsoons retain their current regimes. We can also show early warning signals in the precipitation intensity, indicating a phase change of the Indian or the East Asian monsoon.
Constraint-based parameter sampling to leverage expert knowledge for conditioning soil biogeochemical models
Authors: Pagel Holger , Chavez Rodriguez Luciana , Ingalls Brian , Streck Thilo , Ana González-Nicolás Ana , Nowak Wolfgang , Xiao Sinan
Published: March 2022

Mechanistic models facilitate understanding complex biogeochemical interactions and process chains in soil. However, biogeochemical soil models often have weakly constraint parameters and show sloppiness. That means the dimensionality of parameter spaces is overly large and parameters often cannot be inferred based on available experimental data. Thus, equifinality arises, i.e. many different parameter combinations lead to very similar or identical model predictions.
Expert knowledge represents a synthesis of existing knowledge on processes in soil systems that can be used to find viable parameter regions such that models give plausible predictions in line with evidence-based expectations. Here, we present an approach to leverage expert knowledge. This is achieved by formulating expert knowledge in terms of parameter and process constraints that must be fulfilled. Viable parameter sets are then identified by model conditioning using a novel Bayesian constraint-based parameter search algorithm that extends a previously published iterative constraint-based parameter search method. The algorithm successively applies stricter conditions by increasing the minimum acceptable number of process constraints to be satisfied in each iteration.
We present the concept of the algorithm and demonstrate a successful application to a complex model simulating biodegradation of the herbicide Atrazine that has a high-dimensional parameter space. The presented approach can be widely applied to other soil biogeochemical models and provides a powerful tool to leverage expert knowledge for constructing robust prior parameter distributions for model sensitivity analysis or calibration.
Integrated approaches to locating Pleistocene archaeological and proxy sites in drylands
Authors: Breeze Paul , Drake Nick , Manning Katie , Petraglia Michael
Published: March 2022

Surveying at the landscape scale to find archaeological sites is a particular challenge in the dryland environments of Arabia, the Sahara and other similar hyper-arid regions. Here we present how novel high-resolution palaeoydrological mapping of the entirety of the Saharo-Arabian desert belt has not only revealed large numbers of palaeolakes, shorelines and past drainage courses, but also proved particularly fruitful for finding new palaeolithic sites, and lacustrine pleistocene proxy records in Arabia. We describe the integrated survey methodologies which have helped us to locate large numbers of new sites in Arabia, including the earliest fossil and footprints of our species in Arabia, thus helping to enhance our understanding of pleistocene climatic change in these deserts, and of Hominin dispersals into and through them.
Hadean/Eoarchean plate tectonics and mantle mixing induced by impacts: A three-dimensional study 
Authors: Tackley Paul , Borgeat Xavier
Published: March 2022

The timing of the onset of plate tectonics on Earth remains a topic of strong debate, as does the tectonic mode that preceded modern plate tectonics. Understanding possible tectonic modes and transitions between them is also important for other terrestrial planets such as Venus and rocky exoplanets. Recent two-dimensional modelling studies have demonstrated that impacts can initiate subduction during the early stages of terrestrial planet evolution - the Hadean and Eoarchean in Earth’s case (O’Neill et al. 2017). Here, we perform three-dimensional simulations of the influence of ongoing multiple impacts on early Earth tectonics and its effect on the distribution of compositional heterogeneity in the mantle, including the distribution of impactor material. We compare two-dimensional and three-dimensional simulations to determine when geometry is important. Results show that impacts can induce subduction in both 2-D and 3-D and thus have a great influence on the tectonic regime. The effect is particularly strong in cases that otherwise display stagnant-lid tectonics: impacts can shift them to having a plate-like regime. In such cases, however, plate-like behaviour is temporary: as the impactor flux decreases the system returns to what it was without impacts. Impacts result in both greater production of oceanic crust and greater recycling of it, increasing the build-up of subducted crust above the core-mantle boundary and in the transition zone. Impactor material is mainly located in the upper mantle, at least at the end of the modelled 500 million year period. This is modified when impactors are differentiated into metal and silicate: the dense metal blobs sink to the CMB. In 2-D simulations, in contrast to 3-D simulations, impacts are less frequent but each has a larger effect on surface mobility, making the simulations more stochastic. These stronger 2-D subduction events can mix both recycled basalt and impactor material into the lower mantle. These results thus demonstrate that impacts can make a first-order difference to the early tectonics and mantle mixing of Earth and other large terrestrial planets, and that three-dimensional simulations are important so that effects are not over- or under-predicted.
Pathfinder: a simple yet accurate carbon-climate model to explore climate change scenarios
Authors: Gasser Thomas
Published: March 2022

Simple climate models (SCMs) are most often composed of ad hoc parametric laws that emulate the behaviour of more complex Earth system models (ESMs). The emulation allows investigating experiments or scenarios that would be too costly to compute with ESMs. However, the “SCM” denomination refers to a fairly broad range of models whose complexity can go from a couple of boxes that only emulate one part of the climate system (e.g. a global temperature impulse response function) to hundreds or thousands of boxes representing the different cycles of greenhouse gases and induced climate change (e.g. the compact Earth system model OSCAR). Simpler models are easier and faster to solve, but they may not adequately represent physical processes. Therefore, finding the “simplest but not simpler” model depends on a study’s precise goals.

We developed the Pathfinder model to remedy a deficiency within the spectrum of existing SCMs. Pathfinder is a compilation of existing formulations describing the climate and carbon cycle systems, chosen for their balance between mathematical simplicity and physical accuracy. The resulting model is simple enough that it can be used with Bayesian inference algorithms for calibration, which enables integration of the latest data from CMIP6 Earth system models and the IPCC AR6, as well as a yearly update using observations of global temperature and atmospheric CO2. The model’s simplicity also enables coupling with integrated assessment models (IAMs) and their optimization algorithms, or simply running the model in a backward temperature-driven fashion. In spite of this simplicity, the model accurately reproduces behaviours and results from complex models – including uncertainty ranges – when ran following standardized diagnostic experiments.

Here, we will briefly describe the Pathfinder model, demonstrate its performance, and illustrate its strengths and potential with two example studies. The first one combines a very large-scale ensemble of climate change scenarios generated procedurally, and the physical uncertainty sampling extracted from the Bayesian calibration, to determine which future CO2 emissions pathways remain compatible with the Paris agreement. The second one couples Pathfinder with a stylized IAM and climate impact emulators, to generate cost-effective pathways that limit permafrost carbon thaw, sea level rise speed, and ocean surface acidification.
Regime shifts in river deltas
Authors: van de Vijsel Roeland C. , Scheffer Marten , Hoitink A.J.F. (Ton)
Published: March 2022

River deltas harbor invaluable ecosystems as well as many of the world’s largest cities and are hotspots for economic activity. This necessitates accurate prediction of the response of delta biogeomorphology to future scenarios of changes in sea level, wave climate, river discharge dynamics and anthropogenic forcing. Valuable insights have come from long-term model predictions performed with high-complexity simulation models. Such models often predict a gradual adjustment of biogeomorphic equilibrium to changing forcing conditions. On the other hand, a growing number of studies, based on strongly idealized models, indicate the presence of tipping points where delta systems may undergo irreversible regime shifts to an alternative stable state. Examples include estuarine (hyper)turbidity, delta channel instability and ecosystem emergence or collapse. However, field observations to support either the predicted absence or presence of irreversible regime shifts in river deltas remain scarce.

Our study reviews the existing research on reversible (single equilibrium) and irreversible (multiple equilibria) transitions in delta biogeomorphology. We propose how to bridge the apparent gap between high-complexity models, which accurately capture reversible morphodynamic adjustment to small changes in forcing but are unpractical to probe wide parameter ranges for the presence of irreversible regime shifts, and idealized models, which have contrasting characteristics. We discuss (the lack of) existing field data to support morphodynamic model predictions and specify which field measurements would be needed to provide more conclusive evidence. Specific attention is given to early warning indicators for regime shifts, such as spatial patterning and critical slowing down, and which of these signals could be picked up in delta systems. Finally, we illustrate how the design of human interventions, such as channel dredging, beach nourishments and ecosystem restoration, requires fundamental knowledge of a delta’s natural resilience, as lower resilience implies higher susceptibility to irreversible regime shifts.
Seasonal impact of optically significant water constituents on radiative heat transfer in the Western Baltic Sea
Authors: Cahill Bronwyn , Graewe Ulf , Kritten Lena , Wilkin John , Kowalczuk Piotr
Published: March 2022

Heating rates induced by optically significant water constituents (OACs), e.g. phytoplankton and coloured dissolved organic matter (CDOM), contribute to the seasonal modulation of thermal energy fluxes across the ocean-atmosphere interface in coastal and regional shelf seas. This is investigated in the Western Baltic Sea, a region characterised by considerable inputs of nutrients, CDOM and freshwater, and complex bio-optical and hydrodynamic processes. Using a coupled bio-optical-ocean model (ROMS-BioOptic), the underwater light field is spectrally-resolved in a dynamic ocean and the inherent optical properties of different water constituents are modelled under varying environmental conditions. We estimate the relative contribution of these water constituents to the divergence of the heat flux and heating rates and find that phytoplankton dominates absorption in spring, while CDOM dominates absorption in summer and autumn. In the Pomeranian Bight, water constituent-induced heating rates in surface waters are estimated to be up to 0.1oC d-1 in spring and summer, predominantly as a result of increased absorption by phytoplankton and CDOM, respectively during these periods. Warmer surface waters are balanced by cooler subsurface waters. Surface heat fluxes (latent, sensible and net longwave) all increase in response to warmer sea surface temperatures. We find good agreement between our modelled water constituent absorption, and in situ and satellite observations. More rigorous co-located heating rate calculations using an atmosphere-ocean radiative transfer model provide further evidence of the suitability of ROMS-BioOptic model for this purpose. The study shows that seasonal and spatial changes in optically significant water constituents in the Western Baltic Sea have a small but noticeable impact on radiative heating in surface waters and consequences for the exchange of energy fluxes across the air-sea interface and the distribution of heat within the water column. The importance of the light attenuation coefficient, Kd, in shelf seas as a bio-optical driver which provides a pathway to estimating heating rates and connects biological activity with energy fluxes is highlighted.
Post-fire metal exports in a recently burnt eucalypt plantation in North-Central Portugal
Authors: Serpa Dalila , Machado Ana , Campos Isabel , Santos Martha , Jesus Fátima , Oliveira Bruna , Gholamahmadi Behrouz , Martins Martinho , González-Pelayo Oscar , Abrantes Nelson , Keizer Jacob , Consortium Life-Reforest
Published: March 2022

Ash and sediments transported by post-fire runoff are a source of hazardous substances, like metals, posing a risk of contamination to the downstream aquatic ecosystems. In the present study, metal mobilization was evaluated using 16 m2 bounded runoff-erosion plots at a eucalypt plantation in Albergaria-a-Velha (Aveiro district, North-Central Portugal) that burnt with moderate severity in September 2019. In total, 9 plots were installed: 3 were treated with eucalypt chopped-bark mulch, another 3 were treated with an innovative barrier-based technique developed within the scope of the LIFE REFOREST project (LIFE17 ENV/ES/000248) consisting of geotubes containing a mycotechnosol and, 3 others were left untreated. Eroded sediments and overland flow were collected during the first post-fire hydrological year. Sediment and overland flow samples were analysed for vanadium (V), chromium (Cr), manganese (Mn), iron (Fe), cobalt (Co), nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), arsenic (As), cadmium (Cd) and lead (Pb), which are of concern for both environmental and human health. Given the most recent climate change scenarios, which foresee an increase in fire severity and frequency for the Mediterranean region, this work provides key information for resource managers to define adaptative strategies to effectively safeguard surface water resources.
Surface oxygen balance in the Subantarctic Mode Water Formation region.
Authors: Trucco-Pignata Pablo , Brown Peter , Bakker Dorothee , Venables Hugh , Naveira-Garabato Alberto , Carvalho Filipa , Pabortsava Katsia , García-Ibáñez Maribel , White Sheri , Henson Stephanie , Martin Adrian
Published: March 2022

In the Subantarctic Zone (SAZ) of the southeast Pacific, the densest, coolest, and freshest Subantarctic Mode Water (SAMW) is formed. There, water masses reset their physicochemical characteristics interchanging properties with the atmosphere, and play a critical role in global climate through their impact on the overturning circulation and oceanic heat and carbon uptake. We estimate the magnitude, variability and uncertainty of the air-sea flux of oxygen from five years of hourly observations around the Observatories Initiative (OOI) Southern Ocean mooring.

The magnitude of oxygen fluxes depends greatly on the parameterization used, particularly for high wind events. Hence, there is a need for validation of the high wind speed regime at high latitudes. Surface waters remain undersaturated from autumn to mid-spring, when most of the annual oxygen uptake occurs. We calculate a total annual flux into the ocean of -12.6 ± 3.4 mol m-2 yr-1, with a thermal component of -10.3 ± 2.6 mol m-2 yr-1 and a non-thermal component of -1.0 ± 0.3 mol m-2 yr-1. These results provide the first estimate of oxygen fluxes for the region from high-frequency observations, surpassing previous estimates for the entire SAZ by one order of magnitude.
Impact assessment of buildings exposed to the tephra fallout of the 2021 Cumbre Vieja eruption in La Palma, Spain 
Authors: Dominguez Barragan Lucia , Di Maio Luigia , Reyes Hardy Maria-Paz , Frischknecht Corine , Zuccaro Giulio , Perez Nemesio , Bonadonna Costanza
Published: March 2022

Long-lasting volcanic eruptions involving a variety of hazards have significant implications on the emergency response and on the final impact on the exposed elements. The eruption of Cumbre Vieja (La Palma, Spain), started on 19 September and ended on 13 December 2021. It was associated with earthquakes, gas emissions, lava flows, lava fountains, and tephra fallout (including large volcanic bombs) that significantly impacted the southwest of the island, caused the evacuation of more than 7,000 people and affected 1,676 buildings. In particular, the total extension of about 12 km2 of lava flows, from the fissural source to the western coast, affected 3 municipalities and cut the island in two, generating a significant disruption of transportation. A comprehensive and systematic survey of about 300 buildings affected by tephra south of the lava flow was carried out during two weeks in October 2021 in order to assess the typology of affected buildings and the associated structural and non-structural damages. Structural damage was associated with partial or total roof collapse of secondary buildings (small independent constructions for warehouse, farming and garage) and annexes (small dependent constructions annexed to the main buildings). The most common non-structural damages include clamping vertical and horizontal cracks, partial or total overturning of walls (in case of clamping or thrust of the stressed roofs), and partial damage of several elements (tiles, plaster, curbs, canopies, parapets, windows, corrugate and fretted sheets and tarps). No major structural damage was observed on main buildings. The reason is due to the fact that primary residential and commercial buildings were considered necessary to meet basic needs of the local population; therefore, roofs were regularly cleaned as part of the emergency management and the daily volcanic response activity on the island. This was not the case for secondary buildings and annexes. This emphasizes the important role of clean-up operations on the resilience of buildings during long-lasting volcanic eruptions that can lapse for weeks or months. Even though structural damage has been observed only on secondary structures and annexes, the detailed impact assessment of those conducted in La Palma provides the first insights into the consequences of tephra loads on medium to weak quality buildings or constructions made with light materials (e.g., corrugated metallic tiles), which can be very common on other volcanic settings.
Modelling effects of land use intensification and soil management practices on field water cycles and water use efficiency in Bangalore, India
Authors: Almawazreh Albara , Uteau Daniel , Buerkert Andreas , Peth Stephan
Published: March 2022

Over the last decades the rapid expansion of the city of Bangalore and the associated population growth led to changes in agricultural management practices, which resulted in an increase in irrigated areas compared to rain-fed areas and enhanced use of mineral fertilizers.

To analyse the long-term impact of this transformation on soil properties and the water cycle, two sets of plot trials (rainfed and irrigated) were established at the University of Agricultural Sciences Bangalore (UASB) GKVK campus. Lablab (Lablab purpureus L. Sweet), finger millet (Eleusine coracana L.Gaertn.) , and maize (Zea mays L.) three crops common to the region were sown and treated with three species-specefic levels of N fertilizer (high, medium, low). A soil moisture network consisting of 216 sensors was installed at the rainfed and irrigated sites at three depths (15, 40 and 70 cm). Soil moisture data has been collected since 2017 and is used to calibrate and validate a 1D Richards-based model HYDRUS-1D. The results of the analysis of variance (ANOVA) of the moisture data indicate significant differences in the water uptake of maize and millet crops in the wet seasons, but smaller differences over dry seasons. The initial modeling results confirm the statisticals findings, with millet plots under higher N treatments having higher water uptake and less evaporation than the low N treatment plots, while the differences in lablab plots are negligable.The modelling will, however, continue over both wet and dry seasons to assess how limited amounts of water would affect the differences between N treatments.
Multi-hazard analysis of the Italian electric system
Authors: Frattini Paolo , Sala Gianluca , Colucci Francesca , Bernardo Nunzia , Vadacca Luigi , Crosta Giovanni B.
Published: March 2022

Italy is strongly exposed to geological hazards that affect the entire national territory causing casualties and damage to buildings and infrastructures. In this contest, the planning, maintenance and management of the electric system are strongly impacted by natural hazards. This study shows a national-scale classification of the areas exposed to natural hazards as a tool for risk management related to the power network.

The spatial distribution of the national electric grid elements (e.g. transmission lines, tower, and substations) was obtained by merging several regional and national databases, also accounting for the inaccuracy of the localization of the components (using positional mismatch method on regional milestones) and the voltage of each line. The vector database consists of about 72,000 kilometres of lines, 320,000 towers, and 4000 substations. The structures were overlaid with different datasets of natural hazard at national scale, including: alluvial hazard zones, landslide inventory, landslide hazard zonation, seismic hazard, earthquake-induced liquefaction hazard and avalanche map. In addition, the potential for earthquake induced landslides was obtained by combining landslide inventory and PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration) and the seismic hazard was improved by calculating the horizontal seismic coefficients for pseudostatic slope analysis, based on the national map of Vs30.

Through the combination of alluvial, landslide, seismic, avalanche and liquefaction hazards  a heuristic multi-hazard index (MHI) approach was developed. In order to assess the weights of the different natural hazards, a multi-criteria Analytical Hierarchy Process approach was  adopted, which allows a panel of experts to analyse the degree of influence of each natural hazard by pairwise comparisons. Landslides and earthquakes resulted to be the most important natural hazards, together with liquefaction (for transmission towers) and floods (for substations). The final MHI allows to highlight the most hazardous areas in Italy, especially concentrated in the NE of the Italian Alps (Friuli Venezia Giulia Region) and along the Central and Southern Appenine range.
Mitigation of stormwater flooding by identifying areas suitable for Sustainable Drainage Systems and Aquifer Storage and Recovery (case study: Rome, Italy) 
Authors: Meddi Elisa , Lentini Azzurra , Galve Jorge P. , Papiccio Claudio , La Vigna Francesco
Published: March 2022

This study proposes a survey methodology to identify areas for combined Sustainable Drainage Systems (SUDS) and Aquifer Storage and Recovery (ASR), (Dearden et al. 2013, Sharp Jr., 1997); these techniques exploit the hydrogeological and geomorphological characteristics of an area, to increase the natural capacity of water to infiltrate the ground.

The target area of this case study is the city of Rome and the aim of such techniques is to reduce the problems related to rainwater which, in case of extreme events, struggles to infiltrate the ground, overloads the undersized hydraulic systems and floods the urban space.

The proposed method involves GIS geospatial analysis of various data: the permeability of outcropping lithology, the piezometric level of the aquifer, hydrogeological units, geomorphology and land use.

In this aim zones characterised by high permeability and a piezometric level that would confer a volumetric capacity to possibly store even large quantities of water without triggering possible problems associated with fluctuations in the water table, have been identified.

The data have been divided into classes and indexed for comparison and overlap them. Finally, hydrogeological units were also taken into account (by analysing their depth trend) in order to identify areas with similar characteristics of permeability with respect to depth. The latter will also be compared with the previous data to identify the areas suitable for SUDS and ASR.

The final product of the suitable areas from a hydrogeological point of view will be compared with the land use map in order to exclude those areas that, for administrative and other legislative reasons, cannot be used for such activities.

 
Application of the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in prediction of mining ground surface displacement
Authors: Sompolski Marek , Tympalski Michał , Kopeć Anna , Milczarek Wojciech
Published: March 2022

Underground mining, regardless of the excavation method used, has an impact on the terrain surface. For this reason, continuous monitoring of the ground surface above the excavations is necessary. Deformations on the ground surface occur with a time delay in relation to the mining works, which poses a risk of significant deformations in built-up areas, leading to building disasters. In addition to monitoring, it is therefore necessary to forecast displacements, which at present is usually done using the empirical integral models, which describes the shape of a fully formed subsidence basin and require detailed knowledge of the geological situation and parameters of the deposit. However, insufficiently precise determination of coefficients may lead to significant errors in calculations. Machine learning can be an interesting alternative to predict ground displacement in mining areas. Machine learning algorithms fit a model to a set of input data so that it best represents all the correlations and trends detected in the set. However, the fitting process must be controlled to avoid overfitting. The validated model can then be used to detect new deformations on the ground surface, categorize the resulting displacements, or predict the value of subsidence. In this case ARIMA model (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) was used to predict deformation values for single points placed in the centers of the subsidence basins in the LGCB (Legnica-Głogów Copper Belt) area. The InSAR time series calculated using the SBAS method for the years 2016-2021 was used as input data. The results were compared with the persistence model, against which there was an improvement in accuracy of several percentage points.
Determination of magnetopause and bow shock crossings at Mercury using neural network modelling of MESSENGER data
Authors: Lavrukhin Alexander , Parunakian David , Nevskiy Dmitry , Julka Sahib , Amerstorfer Ute
Published: March 2022

The goal of this work is to improve our understanding of Mercury's magnetosphere and its dynamics. The magnetosphere of Mercury is rather small and highly dynamic due to its weak internal magnetic field and its close proximity to the Sun. The changing solar wind conditions principally determine the locations of both the Hermean bow shock and magnetopause. In 2011 – 2015 MESSENGER (MErcury Surface, Space ENvironment, GEochemistry, and Ranging) spacecraft completed over 4000 orbits around Mercury, producing a large dataset of magnetic field measurements, which have subsequently been manually annotated in the present work as well as in other works such as Philpott et al. [1] to determine magnetopause and bow shock crossings. The size of the dataset enables usage of supervised machine learning algorithms to detect such crossings in archive data and predict them in real time.

Pre-processed features are first windowed using a sliding window of variable size, normalized and into a block of 3 Convolutional layers with 1D filters, each followed by Batch Normalization and ReLu activations. The activations obtained at the end of the CNN block are then passed to the Recurrent block with two layers of LSTMs. The final activations are then passed to a fully connected layer with softmax activations. The objective function used for training is Categorical cross entropy, with Adam optimizer. Overall, the predictor achieves a macro F1 score of about 80% on the Bow-shock and the magnetopause crossings on a randomly sampled test of 300 MESSENGER orbits (two mercury years of data).

This work may be of particular interest for future Mercury research related to the BepiColombo spacecraft mission, which will enter orbit around the planet in December 2025.

[1] L. C. Philpott et al. “The Shape of Mercury’s Magnetopause: The Picture From MESSENGER Magnetometer Observations and Future Prospects for BepiColombo”. In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 125.5 (May 2020). issn: 2169-9380, 2169-9402. doi: 10.1029/2019JA027544.
Effects of check dam construction on nearby urban areas: a case study of Shaanxi Province, China 
Authors: Guang Ran , xiangzhou Xu , mingyang Liu
Published: March 2022

Check dams helps to improve the arable-land quality, agricultural productivity, and ecological environment, and the check dams can also have obvious effects on food production and land use in nearby urban areas. In this study, the statistical yearbook data and remote sensing data from 2000 to 2020 were used to explore the effects of check-dam construction on the food production and land use in local and nearby area in Shaanxi Province. The results show that the construction of check dams has significantly improved the food production per unit of arable land in Yulin from 2000-2020, increasing the rate of the annual food production in Yulin to the total amount of Shanxi Province was increased from 6% to 19%. Hence, Yulin became the main region in Shaanxi province of food production due to the construction of check dams, which had greatly relieved the pressure of food production in Xian, resulting in a reduction of the annual rate of Xi’an to the total amount of Shanxi Province from 18% to 11% during the period of 2000 and 2020. In this period, the dam area of Yulin increases, and Xi’an has the largest net gain in urban construction land among all cities, with 98% of the increase in urban construction land coming from arable land. We found that Yulin is the richest city in the province for land resource reserves due to the construction of check dams, and the new arable land is mainly used to make up for the loss of arable land due to urban expansion in more developed cities such as Xi’an and Xianyang, and to a certain extent promotes the increase of urban construction land. Hence, the construction of soil and water conservation measures, such as check dams, can promote the balance between soil erosion control and urbanization in order to achieve a sustainable development of resources, environment, and economy.
The effects of large-scale geological characteristics on the average spatial pattern of earthquake-induced ground motions
Authors: Tarbali Karim , McCloskey John , Agrawal Himanshu , Galasso Carmine
Published: March 2022

This paper investigates the predominant effects of sub-surface geological characteristics on the earthquake-induced ground-motion properties relevant to the design of infrastructure systems in urban environments. By considering ensembles of different earthquake scenarios and conducting numerical simulations to generate surface ground motion realizations, the contributing factors of earthquake source and earth properties in shaping the spatial pattern of ground motion amplitudes are scrutinized. Physics-based ground-motion simulations are conducted for 28 earthquake scenarios with moment magnitudes of 5.0 and 6.0 triggered with different azimuthal and geometrical properties. The earth wave-propagation properties are defined by considering data and empirical relationships that represent a typical geological setting with depth crustal rock and soft sedimentary basin (including a river channel). The spatial pattern of ground motion intensity measures (defined as the geometrical mean of the two horizontal pseudo-spectral accelerations) is used to show the average spatial pattern of ground motion severity. The results demonstrate that, even though the spatial ground motion patterns for a specific scenario earthquake depend on both the sub-surface geology and the source properties, the sub-surface geological characteristics impose a deterministic impact on the average spatial pattern of ground motions regardless of the earthquake location, azimuthal and geometrical properties. This clearly indicates that the regional seismic hazard assessments should allocate further resources for determining the sub-surface earth properties as they can disproportionally alter urban designs in contrast to the conventional concern on determining the location of probable future earthquakes and their small-scale characteristics.
Reflections on collaboration and capacity-building for sustainable groundwater quality monitoring in rural Malawi
Authors: Gomo Fortune , Halliday Sarah , Chichlowski Wiktor , Chichloska Susan , Zaunda Harlod , Geddes Alistair
Published: March 2022

Drinking water quality is a key component of water security to ensure clean and safe water supplies to achieve the Global SDG6. Yet frequently there are capacity constraints on the adequacy and sustained water quality monitoring programs in LDC contexts, especially in rural areas where resources are more limited and the resident population is more reliant on scattered independent groundwater supplies. In Malawi, knowledge of the importance of water quality has been developing over recent years, necessitating local capacity development for sufficient and sustained water quality monitoring.

International, transdisciplinary, and interdisciplinary research collaboration and capacity-building efforts in rural water quality monitoring can be a vehicle to improve technology development that supports operational monitoring and data reporting in resource-poor settings. However, in cognate fields, similar international partnership models have drawn some criticism of late, because of their alleged tendency to not translate collaboration agreements into demonstrable local capacity gains. We, therefore, link our consideration of these issues specific to our direct input to efforts to create a new water quality testing program in rural southern Malawi in southern Africa in a collaborative research project between the University of Dundee and Fisherman’s Rest, a local NGO in Malawi. Fisherman’s Rest works with rural communities in Malawi, specifically borehole monitoring under the Madzi Alipo program. However, their work lacked the water quality monitoring component, a key element to water security. Using our reflections, we find that the line of critique on international collaborations has some value in terms of thinking about how to advance ‘genuine’ collaboration and capacity-building in water quality monitoring programs as we look to expand our collaboration efforts with Fisherman’s Rest and other stakeholders in rural water quality monitoring in Malawi.
High-resolution WRF-BEP+BEM modelling of urban heat island and urban pollution island effects for Minsk, Belarus with different approaches to urban morphology representation
Authors: Barodka Siarhei , Schlender Tsimafei , Darozhka Natallia , Bruchkouski Ilya , Baravik Aleh , Alieva Milvari , Zhukovskaya Natalia , Yarash Yauheniya , Birukou Maksim , Tabalchuk Tatsiana
Published: March 2022

This study is devoted to analysis of Urban Heat Island (UHI) and Urban Pollution Island (UPI) effects in Minsk, Belarus by means of high-resolution atmospheric urban modelling. We present first results of our implementation of the WRF-BEP+BEM modelling system for Minsk with two different approaches to urban morphology: one involving the Local Climate Zones (LCZ) methodology and the other being based on direct representation of urban parameters on the model grid. For that purpose, we combine satellite remote sensing data with geoinformation systems (GIS), centralized city planning databases and Open Street Maps (OSM) vector data to implement description of land use / land cover for Minsk urban territory and the surrounding area along with a representation of buildings data and other urban parameters with a level of detail necessary for high resolution modelling (500 m, 300 m and 100 m grids). Different configurations of the WRF-BEP+BEM modelling system are then used to perform a series of  simulations involving various meteorological conditions over Minsk, Belarus to investigate manifestations of the UHI and UPI effects. In modelling results validation special emphasis is made on analysis of surface temperature parameters and near-surface atmospheric circulation, the latter being important for atmospheric pollutants transport in the urban area. For validation, we use observational data of surface temperature, wind fields and atmospheric pollution from ground-based measurements (including both regular meteorological stations and crowdsourced data from citizen weather stations) and satellite remote sensing for Minsk urban area and the surrounding region. Analysis results reveal the degree of applicability of each approach to urban morphology representation in WRF-BEP+BEM for Minsk and similar urban territories on high-resolution modelling grids.