The contribution of historical processes to contemporary extinction risk in placental mammals
Authors: Wilder Aryn P. , Supple Megan A. , Subramanian Ayshwarya , Mudide Anish , Swofford Ross , Serres-Armero Aitor , Steiner Cynthia , Koepfli Klaus-Peter , Genereux Diane P. , Karlsson Elinor K. , Lindblad-Toh Kerstin , Marques-Bonet Tomas , Munoz Fuentes Violeta , Foley Kathleen , Meyer Wynn K. ,   Zoonomia Consortium‡, Ryder Oliver A. , Shapiro Beth , Andrews Gregory , Armstrong Joel C. , Bianchi Matteo , Birren Bruce W. , Bredemeyer Kevin R. , Breit Ana M. , Christmas Matthew J. , Clawson Hiram , Damas Joana , Di Palma Federica , Diekhans Mark , Dong Michael X. , Eizirik Eduardo , Fan Kaili , Fanter Cornelia , Foley Nicole M. , Forsberg-Nilsson Karin , Garcia Carlos J. , Gatesy John , Gazal Steven , Genereux Diane P. , Goodman Linda , Grimshaw Jenna , Halsey Michaela K. , Harris Andrew J. , Hickey Glenn , Hiller Michael , Hindle Allyson G. , Hubley Robert M. , Hughes Graham M. , Johnson Jeremy , Juan David , Kaplow Irene M. , Karlsson Elinor K. , Keough Kathleen C. , Kirilenko Bogdan , Koepfli Klaus-Peter , Korstian Jennifer M. , Kowalczyk Amanda , Kozyrev Sergey V. , Lawler Alyssa J. , Lawless Colleen , Lehmann Thomas , Levesque Danielle L. , Lewin Harris A. , Li Xue , Lind Abigail , Lindblad-Toh Kerstin , Mackay-Smith Ava , Marinescu Voichita D. , Marques-Bonet Tomas , Mason Victor C. , Meadows Jennifer R. S. , Meyer Wynn K. , Moore Jill E. , Moreira Lucas R. , Moreno-Santillan Diana D. , Morrill Kathleen M. , Muntané Gerard , Murphy William J. , Navarro Arcadi , Nweeia Martin , Ortmann Sylvia , Osmanski Austin , Paten Benedict , Paulat Nicole S. , Pfenning Andreas R. , Phan BaDoi N. , Pollard Katherine S. , Pratt Henry E. , Ray David A. , Reilly Steven K. , Rosen Jeb R. , Ruf Irina , Ryan Louise , Ryder Oliver A. , Sabeti Pardis C. , Schäffer Daniel E. , Serres Aitor , Shapiro Beth , Smit Arian F. A. , Springer Mark , Srinivasan Chaitanya , Steiner Cynthia , Storer Jessica M. , Sullivan Kevin A. M. , Sullivan Patrick F. , Sundström Elisabeth , Supple Megan A. , Swofford Ross , Talbot Joy-El , Teeling Emma , Turner-Maier Jason , Valenzuela Alejandro , Wagner Franziska , Wallerman Ola , Wang Chao , Wang Juehan , Weng Zhiping , Wilder Aryn P. , Wirthlin Morgan E. , Xue James R. , Zhang Xiaomeng 
Published: April 2023

Species persistence can be influenced by the amount, type, and distribution of diversity across the genome, suggesting a potential relationship between historical demography and resilience. In this study, we surveyed genetic variation across single genomes of 240 mammals that compose the Zoonomia alignment to evaluate how historical effective population size (
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) affects heterozygosity and deleterious genetic load and how these factors may contribute to extinction risk. We find that species with smaller historical
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carry a proportionally larger burden of deleterious alleles owing to long-term accumulation and fixation of genetic load and have a higher risk of extinction. This suggests that historical demography can inform contemporary resilience. Models that included genomic data were predictive of species’ conservation status, suggesting that, in the absence of adequate census or ecological data, genomic information may provide an initial risk assessment.