bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Is the “Cost of Enough Food” Lower in Rural Areas?
Authors: Nord Mark , Leibtag Ephraim
Published: March 2021

We develop and assess two inter-area cost-of-enough-food indices using nationally representative data from the Current Population Survey Food Security Supplements on how much households say they would need to spend to just meet their food needs. We calculate the indices for 470 geographic areas identified by state, specific metropolitan statistical area (or nonmetropolitan), and central-city/balance-MSA residence. On average, the cost-of-enough-food is between 11 and 14 percent less for nonmetropolitan households than for otherwise similar metropolitan households. These findings suggest that differences in poverty rates generally overstate differences in material hardship experienced by households in rural areas versus urban areas.
The Impact of Wal-Mart on Income and Unemployment Differentials in Alabama
Authors: Keil Stanley R. , Spector Lee C.
Published: March 2021

Using Alabama county data from 1980 and 1990 censuses and store opening dates, this paper presents an econometric study of the impact of the presence of Wal-Mart on black-white income and unemployment differentials. It is posited that Wal-Mart changes the competitive nature of the labor market in a way that is beneficial to blacks. After establishing a list of demographic and economic variables that affect unemployment and income, the impact of a Wal-Mart is tested by using a dummy variable and a cumulative-years variable. Wal-Mart is found to have substantially lowered the relative unemployment rates of blacks in those counties where it is present, but to have had only a limited impact on relative incomes after the influences of other social-economic variables are taken into account.
Sensitivity of CGE Simulation Results to Competing SAM Updates
Authors: Cardenete M. Alejandro , Sancho Ferran
Published: March 2021

Recent research shows a renewed interest in the properties of non-survey updates of input-output tables and social accounting matrices (SAM). Along with the scaling RAS method, new procedures related to entropy minimization and other metrics have been examined. Whether they will replace or complement the RAS method is an open question. The performance of the updating procedures has been tested with proximity measures to a reference input-output table or SAM, but we look at the performance of three updating mechanisms by comparing the simulation results from adopting alternative databases for the calibration of a reference CGE model.
Using Ready-Made Regional Input-Output Models to Estimate Backward-Linkage Effects of Exogenous Output Shocks
Authors: Steinback Scott R.
Published: March 2021

The Leontief input-output model provides the basis for quantifying backward-linked multiplier effects of exogenous final demand shocks. In certain situations, however, policies or uncontrollable factors induce exogenous changes in gross industry output. Application of the usual Leontief multipliers in these cases will lead to biased calculations of backward-linked economy-wide effects. To eliminate this bias, an output-based adjustment method is proposed that relates demand-driven Leontief multipliers to exogenous output shocks. It is demonstrated that this approach yields exactly the same results as the mixed exogenous/endogenous variables technique, a commonly employed adaptation procedure that accepts outputs as entries. The equivalence between these two approaches is important because the output-based approach offers substantial computational savings through ease of implementation within ready-made regional input-output systems and provides practitioners with the ability to generate disaggregated estimates of indirect multiplier effects.
Right-to-Work Legislation, Social Capital, and Variations in State Union Density
Authors: Hogler Raymond , Shulman Steven , Weiler Stephan
Published: March 2021

This paper exploits the variation in union membership among states to analyze the impact of right-to-work (RTW) laws on union density. The study is unique in its use of controls for employer opposition to unions, political affiliation, and social capital. These variables capture different dimensions of attitudes toward unions that can underlie both union density and the passage of RTW laws. We pay particular attention to social capital, which has not previously been used in an empirical study of union density. Our model explains over three-quarters of the state-to-state variation in union density. RTW legislation lowers union density by 8.8 percentage points, ceteris paribus. We conclude that RTW laws have a strong, negative effect on union density that is independent of underlying attitudes toward unions.
Does Economic Vulnerability Depend on Place of Residence? Asset Poverty across Metropolitan and Nonmetropolitan Areas
Authors: Fisher Monica , Weber Bruce A.
Published: March 2021

This paper uses PSID data for 1989, 1994, and 1999 to examine why some U.S. households are asset poor, i.e., why households have insufficient resources to invest or to sustain household members at a basic level during times of economic disruption. The study contributes to an improved understanding of asset poverty’s correlates by examining the influence of place of residence; the extant literature has focused on individual-level explanations. We estimate a random-effects logistic model of the probability that an individual is asset poor at a given point in time as a function of household (e.g., gender and race of the head, family structure) and place (region and metropolitan or nonmetropolitan county) variables. The central finding of the paper is that place of residence is an important determinant of asset poverty, above and beyond the influence of household characteristics. We find that living in a central metropolitan county and in a nonmetropolitan area is associated with a higher risk of being asset poor, all else being equal.
The Persistence of County High School Dropout Rates in the Rural South, 1970-2000
Authors: McGranahan David A.
Published: March 2021

This paper investigates Smith’s (1989) thesis that county drop out rates have been self-

perpetuating in the rural South, a pattern reinforced by the presence of mining and manufacturing employers with few skill demands. The results show that the associations of mining and manufacturing with high drop out rates, notable as late as 1980, have largely disappeared. But counties with high proportions of female headed families and low young adult (age 25-44) education continue to have little improvement in high schools completion. The extent of perpetuation of low education varies by state, whether due to differences education policies or economic structures.
State and Local Policy, Factor Markets, and Regional Growth
Authors: Brown Stephen P.A. , Hayes Kathy J. , Taylor Lori L.
Published: March 2021

A large and growing literature has developed to explain how state and local policies affect factor markets, firm location, and economic growth; but it has emerged in three distinct threads. These threads have variously emphasized how policy and natural amenities affect regional economic growth, employment growth, or firm location; how variations in policy and natural amenities can lead to persistent wage differentials across regions; and how regional variation in factor inputs, including public capital, affects output. In this article, we expand the modeling framework of Roback and Gyourko and Tracy to integrate these threads into a single inquiry about how state and local policies—including the provision of public capital—affect factor markets and economic growth.
Foreign Direct Investment: Agglomeration Economies and Returns to Promotion Expenditures
Authors: Kim Seong-Hee , Pickton Todd S. , Gerking Shelby
Published: March 2021

The effect of a state’s financial incentives to attract foreign direct investments (FDI) is a frequent topic for both economists and policy makers. Many studies have shown that FDI are disproportionately concentrated in states with agglomeration economies. This paper uses a conditional logit model with FDI (new plants) data from 1987-1994 to explore the relationship between state efforts, state characteristics, and FDI attraction. Key results show that both promotion expenditures and agglomeration economies are important in attracting foreign plants. Results also indicate that promotion expenditures by states with small economies can partially offset location disadvantages of agglomeration (urbanization and/or localization) economies and thus appear to be a useful economic development tool as states compete for investment.
Occupation Choice, Information, and Migration
Authors: White Nancy E. , Wolaver Amy M.
Published: March 2021

We examine the relationship between occupational and geographical mobility using National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data. We develop a theoretical model that is a variation on the Jovanovic experience good model, which allows us to formalize the occupation choice decision. As individuals gain information on their own productivity, they may change occupations and locations. Occupation choice is introduced as an endogenous determinant of migration in recursive bivariate probit models for individuals who make good and bad matches in an occupation. We extend our analysis to feature an additional discussion of the migration-occupation choice relationship by race for both match types.
Determining Regional Structure Through Cointegration
Authors: Cutler Harvey , England Scott , Weiler Stephan
Published: March 2021

Evaluating regional industrial structures remains an inexact process as traditional aggregation schemes often lump superficially similar but behaviorally distinct industries together. We use pairwise cointegration methods to apply econometric criteria to aggregate detailed industries into behaviorally similar sectors. Based on these aggregations, cointegration guides the proper specification of a regional system to analyze the export versus local nature of core sectors. These methodologies are applied to Denver metropolitan data to demonstrate their utility. The findings indicate previous aggregation schemes are statistically inferior to those generated by this paper’s approach.
A Dynamic Estimation of Total Energy Demand for the Southern States
Authors: Olatubi Williams O. , Zhang Yan
Published: March 2021

Few studies have examined in-depth the dynamics of energy consumption within regions or states in spite of the known differences in consumption patterns within nations. To adequately plan and forecast future energy needs and formulate conservation policies, states or regions need basic information such as income and price elasticities, consumption patterns, etc. Here we estimate the energy demand needs of the 16 states that belong to the Southern States Energy Board (SSEB) as a first step toward assessing future demand. A dynamic panel data framework is used to examine the long-run adjustment patterns. The preferred model shows a process of dematerialization over time. Per capita energy demand over time for the south is found to be relatively inelastic with respect to all the variables and more so for price (-0.32) than income (0.40). The level of income at which per capita energy consumption is maximized is $31,623 (in 1995 dollars). Six of the 16 states in the SSEB are found to have reached or surpassed this level of income.
Pioneers of Rural Sprawl in the Rocky Mountain West
Authors: Weiler Stephan , Theobald David
Published: March 2021

Urban sprawl has been criticized for its disproportionate impact on the environment. Yet urban areas are in fact less land-intensive than recent rural development patterns. Residential first-movers into such virgin areas may spark waves of ensuing development without incorporating the true social costs of their pioneering. This paper first explores both benefit/cost and game-theoretic frameworks for understanding the private strategies and social implications of such pioneer developments. Evidence regarding regional land-use intensities, path-dependence of rural development, and accumulating social costs of “rural sprawl” are then presented to highlight the relevance of this paper’s theoretical perspective in the Rocky Mountain West. The primary conclusion of the combined theoretical and empirical work is that pioneering development in innovative rural locations is likely relative to the social optimum, suggesting a rationale for public policy.
Local Labor Markets and Child Poverty
Authors: Strand Alexander , Fisher Robin C.
Published: March 2021

This study uses modeled Small Area Estimates data to analyze the labor market influences on child poverty rates in local areas. These data support analysis of small geographic areas as well as at different points of the business cycle. Statistical tests appropriate for data with geographic and intertemporal correlations are adapted for use with modeled data. The results reveal that child poverty rates in local areas vary with the diversity of the local economy, specifically with dependence on a particular industry and with the diversity of firm size. These influences have varying impact at different points of the business cycle.
Modeling a Share or Proportion with Logit or Tobit: The Effect of Outcommuting on Retail Sales Leakages
Authors: Burkey Jake , Harris Thomas R.
Published: March 2021

In this study the effects of commuting and demographic variables on the amount and distribution of outshopping were modeled using household-level survey data in which the proportion of expenditures within specific categories of goods were reported across neighboring retail market areas. The effects on the propensity to shop outside the core study area were estimated using the two-limit tobit and logit models. Influences on the relative distribution of that outshopping were modeled by multinomial logit. The multinomial logit and tobit models were shown to produce similar estimates, with empirical results indicating that retail sales leakages are increased for outcommuters for certain types of goods.
Where is the Place in Space?
Authors: Johnson Thomas G.
Published: March 2021

I have titled this address, “Where is the Place in Space?” In this address, I want to explore a topic that I believe is just below the surface in many of our papers and presentations, but is only occasionally exposed for significant scholarly debate. That topic is place. My goal is to convince you that there is much more to the concept of place than is captured by the concept of space and to challenge our discipline to find a more prominent and explicit place for it in our theory and empirical work.
Driving Regional Economic Models with a Statistical Model: Hypothesis Testing for Economic Impact Analysis
Authors: Weiler Stephan , Loomis John , Richardson Robby , Shwiff Stephanie
Published: March 2021

Policy models such as Input-Output (I0) or Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) are deterministic, with exogenous final demand shocks producing point estimates of local impacts. Confidence intervals around these point estimates, while desirable, are not readily available. Using the causal statistical model to form confidence intervals around the input/ shock estimates allows for the configuration of confidence intervals around the output/ impact results. The method is demonstrated on a sample policy scenario, which tests the relative significance of population versus climate change as a determinant of local economic activity in Rocky Mountain National Park’s gateway community.
An Evaluation of Alternative Strategies for Incorporating Interindustry Relationships into a Regional Employment Forecasting Model
Authors: Rickman Dan S. , Miller Steven R.
Published: March 2021

Alternative strategies for incorporating interindustry relationships into industry employment forecasting equations are evaluated. Strategies that are based on using input-output information to select which industry employment variables to include as independent variables in each equation are com-pared to those of including input-output-based aggregate demand variables. The strategies also differ according to the degree of endogeneity between industry employment levels, whether model selection procedures are used, and whether restrictions are placed upon the coefficients during estimation. Relative forecast performance of the alternative models and an examination of the employment multipliers serve as criteria in the evaluation of the models.
Price Transmission in the Antebellum Slave Markets: A Time Series Analysis
Authors: Ewing Bradley T. , Payne James E. , Thornton Mark , Yanochik Mark A.
Published: March 2021

This paper examines how price shocks in antebellum slave markets were transmitted to surrounding slave markets. A newly developed time series econometric technique is utilized to estimate the transmission of price shocks among slave markets and to investigate the univariate and multivariate time series properties of slave prices in four geographically dispersed markets. The results suggest that these markets were linked and that information flowed from one market to another. The westward, expansionary path of the slave economy is confirmed by a greater magnitude of impact from price shocks in markets to the east of the location in which the shock originated and a greater degree of unidirectional price linkage between slave markets. This new empirical evidence describes the connectedness of regional slave markets in the antebellum South and demonstrates that the overall market was effective. The paper also provides a foundation for addressing additional issues such as slave price convergence.
Environmental Policy and Industry Location: The Case of the U.S. Livestock Industry
Authors: Park Dooho , Seidl Andrew , Davies Stephen
Published: March 2021

The relationship between state-level environmental regulations and firm location decisions in the U.S. livestock industry is explored. We focus on the overall size of the livestock industry by state and over time. We find that the effects of differences in productive input costs across states, for instance property tax and local slaughter capacity, are consistent with expectations. We differentiate between the written stringency of environmental policy and its actual enforcement. Enforcement of environmental regulations, as seen by a state’s tendency to levy fines and the staff devoted to monitoring, seems to affect industry location negatively. However, the written regulatory stringency effects are positive, suggesting that a political response occurs when livestock operations grow, but only the choice to enforce actually alters the location deci-sion of producers.
Federal Funding in the South: Bringing Home the Bacon, but Where’s the Beef?
Authors: Reeder Richard J. , Calhoun Samuel D. , Bagi Faqir S.
Published: March 2021

The South receives more federal funding per capita than other regions, but much of the South’s funding advantage comes from the defense and space industries and other functions serving national rather than regional or local objectives. In contrast, most programs designed to achieve regional and local development objectives do not particularly benefit the South, and the non-metro South gets relatively fewer of many of these programs then nonmetro areas nationwide. Metro areas generally receive more federal funds per capita than nonmetro areas, but this metro-nonmetro gap is larger in the South than elsewhere in the country. Another nationwide pattern that is particularly present in the South is that federal spending tends to favor higher-income areas, especially among metro areas. While federal spending may help mitigate growth disparities nationwide, we found no evidence of this in the South.
Anatomy of a Community-Level Fiscal Impact Model: FIT-4-NH
Authors: Farrigan Tracey L. , Halstead John M. , Shields Martin L. , Moris Douglas E. , Jansen Jr. Edmund F.
Published: March 2021

This paper describes the development of a fiscal impact tool for New Hampshire communities (FIT-4-NH). FIT-4-NH belongs to a family of computer-generated fiscal impact assessment models designed to estimate the impacts to local government revenues and expenditures that result from economic changes. In the past, work in this area has centered on the completion of county-level models for the midwestern states. FIT-4-NH is unique in that it was designed for rural community-level use in the northern New England region of the country.
The Participation of Firms in Tax Incentive Programs
Authors: Faulk Dagney
Published: March 2021

This paper analyzes firms that are eligible to participate in Georgia’s Job Tax Credit program to determine the characteristics that influence the probability of filing for a state employment tax credit. Empirical results indicate that firms with higher state corporate income tax liability, previous participation, a larger number of jobs credited, and headquartered in the state are more likely to participate in the tax credit program. Larger firms and start-ups are less likely to participate in the tax credit program.
The Long- Term Development of Local Retail and Services Sectors in Rural Southern Counties
Authors: Hammond George , Thompson Eric
Published: March 2021

This research examines the trend in retail and services capture, as measured by location quotients, in counties throughout the South from 1969 to 1997. Analysis indicates that location quotients have been falling on average in nonmetropolitan and trade shed counties in the retail and services industries. However, location quotient values have not, in general, been converging to any particular value. Further, there is substantial mobility (both upward and downward) in county location quotients over time. Both findings suggest that there is potential for success with public policy programs designed to help local communities capture more local spending.
The Landscapes of Liberty
Authors: Rees John
Published: March 2021

This Presidential Address focuses on thow the individual’s research interests has evolved over time. Specifically, this relates to the evolution of issues in economic geography.
Economic Impacts of Municipal Recycling
Authors: Creason Jared , Podolsky Michael J.
Published: March 2021

Recycling efforts recovered about 55 million tons of municipal solid waste through approximately 9,000 curbside recycling programs and about 10,000 drop-off centers in 1996 (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 1998). We investigate economic impacts of this activity using state-level data wherever possible. Our results indicate that, while recycling tends to increase waste management costs, the spending creates an important economic stimulus for the processing and collection industries. These industries can have a small positive effect on economic development. Local officials should be cognizant of the total economic impact of recycling as well as its consequences for the distribution of income.
How Much on that Doggie at the Window? An Analysis of the Decline in Greyhound Racing Handle
Authors: Ray Margaret A.
Published: March 2021

In recent years, considerable attention has been given to the role of legalized gambling in regional economic development. Evidence of the effectiveness of legalized gambling activities in causing economic growth has led to its expansion in the United States. This paper looks at the greyhound pari-mutuel racing industry to determine the factors affecting the handle (total amount of money bet legally at pari-mutuel tracks) on greyhound races (live and off-track/intertrack). Identifying these factors is necessary for the industry and public policy makers to address the decline in greyhound racing wagering throughout the 1990s and the associated reversal in economic growth.
Measuring Internal Migration Among the Foreign-Born: Insights from Canadian Data
Authors: Newbold K. Bruce
Published: March 2021

As the most important avenue of spatial population change and redistribution, how migration events are defined alters the empirical measurement and the derived conclusions. Using the foreign-born population as an example and drawing upon recent Canadian census files, this paper explores two related issues. First, the problems and fallacies of attempting to extrapolate temporal trends from period-specific measures are highlighted. Second, measurement issues associated with the length of the migration interval are evaluated by defining return and onward migrations within the foreign-born population based upon one-and five-year migration measures.
Immigration and Natives’ Wages: Understanding Their Correlation in the 1980s
Authors: Easton Todd
Published: March 2021

Major papers on immigration’s wage impacts in the 1980s concluded that immigration into the U.S. modestly reduced the wages of natives. Authors based these conclusions on fixed-effects models that controlled for area-specific shocks. Without those fixed effects, however, these authors found positive correlations between immigration and wages. This study examines two specific shocks that might explain this counterintuitive result: changes in the industry structure of labor demand and differences in inflation rates among metropolitan areas. The study finds no evidence that the first shock matters for understanding immigration, but finds that a large proportion of the positive correlation between immigration and wages disappears if one controls for differences in inflation rates.
The Regional Growth of Manufacturing: Markets, Wages, and Labor Consumption
Authors: Duffy Neal E.
Published: March 2021

Changes in two important location factors, markets and labor, are investigated for convergence and their relationship to the regional growth of manufacturing. Analysis of the spatial composition of labor suggests that the Manufacturing Belt has experienced skilled-labor-augmenting technical progress to a greater extent than other regions, especially the Southeast. Though wage rates continue to diverge in the Manufacturing Belt, biased technical change and improvement in markets may help the region maintain a residual hegemony. However, the central states may also compete, possibly forming a new manufacturing belt in the U.S.
Assessment of Economic Impact Studies: The Cases of BMW and Mercedes-Benz
Authors: Connaughton John E. , Madsen Ronald A.
Published: March 2021

In 1992, the state of South Carolina offered an incentive package in excess of $120 million for the possible location of a BMW auto assembly plant. As part of the location effort, the state of South Carolina sponsored an impact study that appeared to be very optimistic. This paper evaluates this very optimistic impact study. The results presented in this paper fail to support the assumption made in the South Carolina impact study that 21 net new supplier chain firms would accompany a new BMW plant opening. Our findings suggest that the impact studies overestimated the total impact on the state economy.
Regional Science: Evolving in New Directions
Authors: Rees John
Published: March 2021

This paper introduces a collection of short essays on “New Directions in Regional Science” based on commentaries delivered at the 37th annual meeting of the Southern Regional Science Association in Savannah, Georgia, 1998. In response to the idea of crisis in earlier reviews of regional science, I also suggest that ongoing methodological debates in geography and economics provide many opportunities for regional science in the future. Others are optimistic about an applied regional science.
Divestiture, Competition, and Regional Labor Earnings: Evidence from the Telecommunications Industry
Authors: Peoples James
Published: March 2021

Theory suggests that the divesture of a corporate monopoly such as AT&T could lead to greater earnings variations developing across the now autonomous regional companies. Individual worker information drawn from Current Population Survey files is used to investigate divesture’s influence on regional earnings in this industry. This study presents evidence suggesting larger erosion of the union telecommunications earnings advantage in regions where state utility commissions encourage competition. A broader regional earnings effect is found for nonunion telecommunications employees. For instance, the earnings advantage of nonunion workers and managers in this industry declined appreciably across all regions. These findings indicate the differing regional earnings effect of divestiture and competition on the three major groups of telecommunications employees.
Spatial Differences in Manufacturing Firm Births and Deaths and Local Economic Conditions: Evidence from Pennsylvania
Authors: Cole Ismail M.
Published: March 2021

This study uses county-level manufacturing data (1985-1994) from Pennsylvania to investigate the spatial variation of relationships among manufacturing firm births, deaths, and certain local economic variables suggested by the theoretical literature. To do this, a panel data vector autoregressive method is employed, which, unlike the more customary models of studies of this nature, allows for, among other things, full interdependence among all vari-ables and makes adjustment for omitted-variable bias related to “area-specific” effects. The results, which in some cases confirm and in others contradict those of some of the leading studies on the issue, reveal a rich network of interactions among the variables that indicate that firm births and deaths and local economic conditions are mutually driven. The main conclusion drawn from the results is that firm birth rates and, hence, economic growth, are highest in those counties with: (i) a relatively high proportion of small firms; (ii) lower unemployment; (iii) a growing market demand; (iv) a lower-than-average school property tax rate; (v) a higher-than-average quality of public education; and (vi) some urban agglomeration advantages. Some of the implications of the findings for local economic development strategy are considered.
The Sources of Revenues for Wisconsin Native American Casinos: Implications for Casino Gaming as a Regional Economic Development Tool
Authors: Gazel Ricardo , Rickman Dan S. , Thompson William N.
Published: March 2021

This paper ascertains the sources of revenues for Native American casinos in Wisconsin. Based on an examination of the sources, implications for casino gaming as a statewide economic development tool are discussed. The analysis is based on interviews of visitors to several casinos in 1994. Among the findings are that: noncasino areas in Wisconsin experience a net loss of funds to areas containing the casinos; expenditures in other businesses in the areas containing the casinos are likely displaced; and lower-income individuals and the unemployed are more adversely affected by the availability of casino gambling in the state than others.
Tax Incentive Programs and Unemployment Rate
Authors: Sridhar Kala Seetharam
Published: March 2021

This paper answers the question: What are the effects of tax incentive programs on an area’s unemployment rate? A model is developed that describes the determination of unemployment in an enterprise zone. The estimation of unemployment rate using Census data for Ohio, taking into account the treatment effects problem, shows that such programs have a significant impact in reducing unemployment. The net impact of being an enterprise zone for a duration of one year is approximately a 3 percentage point reduction in area unemployment. The results also suggest that three to five years could be the optimum period for offering incentives.
Local Economic Development as a Prisoners’ Dilemma: The Role of Business Climate
Authors: Ellis Stephen , Rogers Cynthia
Published: March 2021

We formally demonstrate the prisoners’ dilemma fueling the incentives “arms race.” Our simple game (1) includes only localities that are equivalent with respect to basic location requirements; and (2) explicitly models business climate. Localities are compelled to offer incentives despite potential drawbacks. If no other locality competes, a locality can win big; if others are competing, a locality can avoid big losses. Failing to compete sends a negative signal about a locality’s business climate, so localities are compelled to give away the entire value of attracting the firm. The model provides a framework for investigating numerous aspects of interjurisdictional competition.
Lots of Bull: Regional Impacts of the 1990s Stock Market Boom
Authors: Warf Barney , Cox Joseph C.
Published: March 2021

Stock markets in the United States experienced a surge of growth throughout the 1990s as an expanding national economy, deregulation, and demographic change produced the longest bull run in history. This paper explores the reasons for this boom. Next, it charts rising employment in securities and commodities firms, emphasizing the dominant role played by New York. Third, it analyzes the local economic impacts of the bull market using regionalized input-output models of the New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago metropolitan areas to estimate regional output, employment, and personal income effects. In the three combined regions over the years 1991-1999, the bull market generated more than $4.1 billion in output, two-thirds of which was in the securities industry; 136,000 work-years of employment, primarily in producer services; and $8.2 billion in personal income. Geographically, these effects were heavily concentrated in the New York region.
Do Low-Income Families Benefit from Minimum Wage Increases? Evidence from State-Level Minimum Wage Laws
Authors: Partridge Mark D. , Partridge Jamie S.
Published: March 2021

Several recent studies contend that falling real minimum wage rates are an important factor behind rising wage inequality and increasing poverty rates. Other studies find the more conventional result that they have very little influence on poverty and inequality, but these studies are generally based on simulated labor market responses. This study examines the influence of minimum wage rates on poverty rates and family income inequality using state-level minimum wages. The methodology has the key advantage of not requiring simulated labor market responses to minimum wage increases. The results suggest that increases in minimum wage rates and coverage do not reduce poverty rates or income inequality.
Environmental Regulation and the Spatial Distribution of Capital and Resources
Authors: Chiles Jr. Ted W. , Clark Joy
Published: March 2021

This paper explores the impact of the Endangered Species Act on the profits of firms in the paper and pulp industries. In 1989, the federal courts enjoined timber-cutting ~on tracts in old-growth forest areas that might contain northern spotted owl. This action was perceived to decrease substantially the profits of firms with a high spatial concentration of mills in the Northwest. The empirical evidence does not support this hypothesis. These same firms are shown to benefit from the environmental regulation because the value of privately held timber increased in the Northwest.
Dynamic Nonmetropolitan Export-Base Modeling
Authors: Harris Thomas R. , Shonkwiler Scott , Ebai George E.
Published: March 2021

This paper investigated a time series export-base model of nonmetro-politan Nevada counties. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to bifurcate county employment, and county basic and nonbasic employment were tested for cointegration. Employing the Granger Representation Theorem, an error correction mechanism model was estimated. Error correction mechanism model forecasts were performed and long-run forecasts were evaluated. Given current microcomputer hardware and software, this paper provides a procedure to conduct dynamic rural impact analysis by employing a dynamic export-base model.
Simulating the Economic and Fiscal Impacts of High-and Low-Income Elderly on a Small Rural Region
Authors: Shields Martin , Stallmann Judith I. , Deller Steven C.
Published: March 2021

We assess the impact of an aging rural population using the Wisconsin Economic Impact Modeling System, a county-level conjoined input-output/ econometrics simulation model. Using data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Expenditure Survey, we construct profiles of two household types to simulate the economic and fiscal impacts of 500 additional elderly households in a small rural economy. Household types vary by income levels and expenditure patterns. The results suggest that, from the perspective of local government officials, high-income elderly households will increase local expenditures more than a similar number of low-income retiree households, but the resulting increase in revenues will more than offset the increased expenditures.
Regional Economic Diversification and Efficiency: Baumol’s Likely Lower Confidence Limit Measure of Risk
Authors: Harper Deborah J. , St.Louis Larry V.
Published: March 2021

In this paper we argue that the appropriate concept of regional economic efficiency is Baumol’s lower confidence limit criteria. This implies a substantially reduced subset of the usual Markowitz efficient frontier. We examine this proposition in the context of a tractable equilibrium model with a data set for the province of Saskatchewan. We conclude that the Baumol efficiency criteria suggest maintaining substantial levels of activity in the high-risk, but higher-return, resource sectors of the economy. The results suggest that the cost of stability could be high, in terms of per capita income, if this economy were to diversify too far from its resource-based comparative advantage.
A Macroeconomic Analysis of Regional Migration in Finland, 1975-95
Authors: Pekkala Sari , Ritsilii Jari
Published: March 2021

This study analyzes regional migration in the 85 Finnish subregions during the period 1975-95 using data on net in-migration rates. Both cross-section and panel data methods are employed. The regression analysis reveals that the direction of net in-migration flows can be explained by a set of regionally differing characteristics. Unemployment rates, tax rates, and the share of primary production affect net in-migration negatively, whereas the share of higher education and the growth of regional incomes have a positive effect. This indicates that regional disparities may not be alleviated by migration, but there is some evidence for a cumulative causation growth pattern induced by net in-migration flows.
Does Migration Matter? Job Search Outcomes for the Unemployed
Authors: Boehm Thomas P. , Herzog Jr. Henry W. , Schlottmann Alan M.
Published: March 2021

In this study we investigate migration’s effect on labor market transitions. Specifically, we explore transition rates out of unemployment (to employment) and from nonparticipation to active job search. To facilitate this, a multistate model of the hazard rate is developed and subsequently estimated. Our results strongly suggest that migration is both directly and indirectly associated with a suc-cessful transition to re-employment.
New Goods and Economic Growth: Evidence from Legalized Gambling
Authors: Walker Douglas M. , Jackson John D.
Published: March 2021

We address two questions: (1) Does legalized gambling spur economic growth? and, if so, (2) Does economic growth depend on “exports?” After developing a method of applying Granger causality to panel data, we analyze the casino gambling and greyhound racing industries. Empirical results suggest the answer to (1) is “yes.” Both industries Granger cause economic growth. Because of the industry-wide results, the alleged “factory-restaurant dichotomy’’ for casino gambling does not appear to be valid. Based on the disparate thresholds and ranges of the industries and the consistent causal results (both industries Granger cause per capita income) the answer to question (2) appears to be”no.”
Commuting’s Effect on Local Retail Market Performance
Authors: Shields Martin , Deller Steven C.
Published: March 2021

The ever-increasing spatial dimension of commuting sheds suggests that the natUre of the economic impact of new job creation on the local community is changing. From a community perspective, an increasing number of any new jobs created are taken by in-commuters as opposed to in-migrants. To gain insight into the nature of this change, we simulate the impact of different levels of in-commuting versus in-migration on local retail markets.
Tax Incentive Requests and Offers in a State Economic Development Program
Authors: Gabe Todd M. , Kraybill David S.
Published: March 2021

This paper analyzes expansion, relocation, and new business projects in Ohio between 1993 and 1995 to determine the characteristics that influence a project’s probability of receiving a tax incentive from the state. Empirical results indicate that establishment size and age, high local wages, and high local air pollution levels decrease a project’s probability of receiving tax assistance from the state government. The number of new jobs promised by the business establishment and the size of the county labor force increase a project’s likelihood of receiving an incentive.
Interstate Differences in Per Capita State and Local Revenues and the Neighboring State Effect
Authors: Murphy Kevin J. , Izraeli Oded
Published: March 2021

This paper examines cross-state differences in the responsiveness of per capita state and local revenues to changes in factors that determine these revenues. Our model proceeds from two intuitive points of departure. First, because of differing tastes and attitudes among the population toward public goods and services, states should respond differently to underlying determinants of per capita revenues. Second, though states differ generally from one another, groups or pockets of states may behave in a similar fashion because of what the literature has come to refer to as the neighboring state effect. Our data cover the period 1960 to 1992. The econometric results indicate that states differ in their response to changes in underlying revenue determinants. We also find, however, that some states exhibit a considerable degree of neighboring state behavior, particularly in the New England, West North Central, West South Central, and Mountain regions.
The Cost of being Nonwite and the Added Cost of being Female in the South and Southwest
Authors: Gaynor Patricia E. , Durden Garey C.
Published: March 2021

In this paper we use CPS data from 1990 to investigate earnings differences between white males and others in the South and Southwest. Particular emphasis is placed on measuring the added cost of being female-that is, the amount by which earnings differentials for white, black, and Mexican-American females exceed those of black males. We find that the earnings of black males, after adjustment for labor market differences, still lag behind those of white males. We find a substantial extra cost of “femaleness” in that unexplained earnings differentials for females are greater than those for black males. For white females the unexplained differential is 44.9 percent, 89.3 percent, and 51.2 percent greater for white, black, and Mexican-American females than for black males.
Geographic Differentials in the Rate of Return on Savings and Loan Assets
Authors: Cebula Richard J.
Published: March 2021

Based on a constrained S&L profit-maximization model, this empirical study estimates six reduced-form equations, using a heteroskedasticity correction, to identify the factors influencing the rate of return on S&L assets. For the years 1988 and 1989, the results consistently imply that the rate of return on S&L assets is an increasing function of the mortgage rate, the percentage of gross state product (GSP) deriving from manufacturing, and the capitaVasset ratio. In addition, it appears that the rate of return on S&L assets is a decreasing function of the volatility of gross state product, the cost of deposits, and very high mortgage delinquency rates.
Price Differentials and Trends in State Income Levels: A Research Note
Authors: Deller Steven C. , Shields Martin , Tomberlin David
Published: March 2021

Most of the discussion of regional income convergence in recent decades has operated under the assumption, either explicit or implicit, that spatial and temporal differences in regional prices (i.e., cost of living and inflation) are negligible. Using five different measures of interstate and interregional income inequality, we examine the evolution of regional income patterns before and after adjusting for price differences. Our results suggest that the common practice of overlooking interspatial differences in cost-of-living and inflation may yield a false understanding of regional income trends and, in tum, false policy prescriptions. Specifically, the pattern of regional income convergence through the 1970s followed by divergence in the 1980s are lost if spatial and temporal differences in regional prices are considered.
The Impact of Highway Investment on New Manufacturing Employment in South Carolina: A Small Regional Spatial Analysis
Authors: Singletary Loretta , Henry Mark , Brooks Kerry , London James
Published: March 2021

A geographical information system (GIS) is used with econometric methods to develop a small region spatial model to analyze the linkage between highway investment and new manufacturing employment in South Carolina. OLS estimates of the spatial model indicate that increases in four-lane highways, as well as interstate access, and two-lane highway density stimulate new manufacturing firm employment. Regions with higher than average employment density (a proxy for agglomeration economies) consistently influence employment gains as well, however. An implication for state and local policymakers is that the location, timing, and type of highway investment matter concerning whether highway investment serves as an economic development aid. Comparison of nonspatial and spatial model results indicates that development of small region models incorporating spatial statistical concerns should be pursued further.
Money And Interest Rates As Predictors Of Regional Economic Activity
Authors: Kozlowski Paul J.
Published: March 2021

This paper revisits the issue of monetary influences on regional economies. It explores linkages between national financial variables and economic activity in the Detroit MSA and the state of South Carolina, regions with very different industrial structures. Tests on the information-content of money and interest rates and evaluation of contributions to forecasting regional employment reveal that interest rates outperform monetary aggregates over several business cycles. Detroit is more sensitive to interest rates than South Carolina, but the latter is far from immune to changing national monetary conditions. The spread between rates on commercial paper and treasury bills outperforms monetary aggregates as a predictor of short-run changes in the regional economies. This result is in line with findings for the nation.
Application of Maximum Likelihood to a Bivariate Two-Limit Tobit Model for Estimation of Rural Retail Sales Potential
Authors: Harris Thomas R. , Shonkwiler J.S.
Published: March 2021

A bivariate likelihood function for a two-limit tobit model is developed and applied to the estimation of rural resident shopping patterns. Comparison of results from the univariate and bivariate models shows that parameters are estimated with more precision, and derivatives of conditional expectations are larger under the bivariate procedure. Results suggest rural commercial sector development plans should address a broad array of retail stores in order to capture the interdependencies of retail purchases.