bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Statistical Issues in Developing Indicators of Sustainable Development
Authors: Custance J. , Hillier H.
Published: March 2003

This paper describes the background to the development of a new official set of national indicators of sustainable development—one of the first in the world to be published. The paper discusses the role of statisticians in helping to define sustainable development, and the problems of monitoring and reporting progress. The Minister of State for the Environment has announced his ambition of developing a very small set of headline indicators. This paper is intended to help to stimulate the debate over what they should be.
Working Time in Great Britain, 1975–1994: Evidence from the New Earnings Survey Panel Data
Authors: Bell D. N. F. , Hart R. A.
Published: March 2003

Using individual-based panel data from the New Earnings Survey, this paper provides a detailed analysis of the working time behaviour of British full-time male and female workers as well as part-time female workers. We investigate the following: male–female differences in basic and overtime working patterns; extensive overtime working; age-related patterns of weekly basic and overtime hours; the effects of collective bargaining on hours of work; industrial, public–private sector and occupational breakdowns of basic and total hours. The results for the last three topics are based on estimates from fixed effect regressions with time-varying parameters.
Estimating Driver Crash Risks Based on the Extended Bradley–Terry Model: An Induced Exposure Method
Authors: Li Lel , Kim Karl
Published: March 2003

Quantifying driver crash risks has been difficult because the exposure data are often incompatible with crash frequency data. Induced exposure methods provide a promising idea that a relative measurement of driver crash risks can be derived solely from crash frequency data. This paper describes an application of the extended Bradley–Terry model for paired preferences to estimating driver crash risks. We estimate the crash risk for driver groups defined by driver–vehicle characteristics from log-linear models in terms of a set of relative risk scores by using only crash frequency data. Illustrative examples using police-reported crash data from Hawaii are presented.
The Comparison of Designs for Sequential Clinical Trials with Covariate Information
Authors: Atkinson Anthony C.
Published: March 2003

The paper develops methods for the comparison of randomized rules of the biased coin type for the sequential allocation of treatments in a clinical trial. One important characteristic is the loss, which measures the increase in the variance of parameter estimates due to the imbalance caused by randomization. The other important characteristic is the selection bias measuring the probability of correctly guessing which treatment is to be allocated next. The combination of these two measures leads to the elucidation of admissible designs. Simulations provide clear plots of the behaviour of the designs and make it possible to distinguish good designs from those which are less good.
Deprivation, Ill-Health and the Ecological Fallacy
Authors: Lancaster Gillian , Green Mick
Published: March 2003

The use of ecological studies in explaining the relationship between deprivation and ill-health is widespread in many health applications. However, inferences drawn from these studies about individuals are susceptible to serious bias known as the ecological fallacy. Our paper demonstrates the ecological fallacy effect in this context but also shows how it can be considerably reduced by taking into account different population structures at the aggregate level. Two regression analyses of limiting long-term illness are performed, one at the individual level and one at the electoral ward level, using the 1991 UK census sample of anonymized records and the small area statistics. The analyses compare several measures of deprivation including the standard Carstairs index, with the separate variables which make up the indices, to determine their effectiveness in explaining rates of illness. Two of the deprivation scores are constructed using latent variable modelling techniques which enable a score to be generated at the individual level as well as at the ward level. It is shown that, given the right choice of socioeconomic variables and taking into account the age structure of the population, it should be possible to construct a single aggregate deprivation index that will explain most of the variation in rates of illness across the study region.
Bias-calibrated Estimation from Sample Surveys Containing Outliers
Authors: Welsh A. H. , Ronchetti Elvezio
Published: March 2003

We discuss the problem of estimating finite population parameters on the basis of a sample containing representative outliers. We clarify the motivation for Chambers's bias-calibrated estimator of the population total and show that bias calibration is a key idea in constructing estimators of finite population parameters. We then link the problem of estimating the population total to distribution function or quantile estimation and explore a methodology based on the use of Chambers's estimator. We also propose methodology based on the use of robust estimates and a bias-calibrated form of the Chambers and Dunstan estimator of the population distribution function. This proposal leads to a bias-calibrated estimator of the population total which is an alternative to that of Chambers. We present a small simulation study to illustrate the utility of these estimators.
On the Statistical Inference of a Machine-generated Autoregressive AR(1) Model
Authors: Stockis Jean-Pierre , Tong Howell
Published: March 2003

We have obtained the asymptotic bias and the limiting distribution for the Yule–Walker estimator of the autoregressive parameter under a considerably weaker assumption than that of independence in the noise sequence. Among other things, these suggest robustness of the classical results and throw some light on the use of simulations based on pseudorandom numbers in verifying these results.
A Simple Derivation of Deletion Diagnostic Results for the General Linear Model with Correlated Errors
Authors: Haslett John
Published: March 2003

A general, simple and intuitive derivation is provided for diagnostics associated with the deletion of arbitrary subsets for the linear model with general covariance structure. These are seen to be most simply expressed, even for the well-studied case of independent and identically distributed data, in terms of a residual known variously as the conditional residual, the deletion prediction residual and the cross-validation residual. Particularly simple specializations arise when the subsets are of size 1 and of size 2, but the method is easy to apply for all subsets and to conditional deletions.
Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis
Authors: Tipping Michael E. , Bishop Christopher M.
Published: March 2003

Principal component analysis (PCA) is a ubiquitous technique for data analysis and processing, but one which is not based on a probability model. We demonstrate how the principal axes of a set of observed data vectors may be determined through maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in a latent variable model that is closely related to factor analysis. We consider the properties of the associated likelihood function, giving an EM algorithm for estimating the principal subspace iteratively, and discuss, with illustrative examples, the advantages conveyed by this probabilistic approach to PCA.
Goodness of Fit of Generalized Linear Models to Sparse Data
Authors: Paul Sudhir R. , Deng Dianliang
Published: March 2003

We derive approximations to the first three moments of the conditional distribution of the deviance statistic, for testing the goodness of fit of generalized linear models with non-canonical links, by using an estimating equations approach, for data that are extensive but sparse. A supplementary estimating equation is proposed from which the modified deviance statistic is obtained. An application of a modified deviance statistic is shown to binomial and Poisson data. We also conduct a performance study of the modified Pearson statistic derived by Farrington and the modified deviance statistic derived in this paper, in terms of size and power, through a small scale simulation experiment. Both statistics are shown to perform well in terms of size. The deviance statistic, however, shows an advantage of power. Two examples are given.
Robust Estimation for Finite Populations Based on a Working Model
Authors: Kuk Anthony Y. C. , Welsh A. H.
Published: March 2003

A common scenario in finite population inference is that it is possible to find a working superpopulation model which explains the main features of the population but which may not capture all the fine details. In addition, there are often outliers in the population which do not follow the assumed superpopulation model. In situations like these, it is still advantageous to make use of the working model to estimate finite population quantities, provided that we do it in a robust manner. The approach that we suggest is first to fit the working model to the sample and then to fine-tune for departures from the model assumed by estimating the conditional distribution of the residuals as a function of the auxiliary variable. This is a more direct approach to handling outliers and model misspecification than the Huber approach that is currently being used. Two simple methods, stratification and nearest neighbour smoothing, are used to estimate the conditional distributions of the residuals, which result in two modifications to the standard model-based estimator of the population distribution function. The estimators suggested perform very well in simulation studies involving two types of model departure and have small variances due to their model-based construction as well as acceptable bias. The potential advantage of the proposed robustified model-based approach over direct nonparametric regression is also demonstrated.
A Basis Function Approach to Position Estimation Using Microwave Arrays
Authors: Webb Andrew R. , Garner Philip N.
Published: March 2003

We consider the problem of estimating the bearing of a remote object given measurements on a particular type of non-scanning radar, namely a focal-plane array. Such a system focuses incoming radiation through a lens onto an array of detectors. The problem is to estimate the angular position of the radiation source given measurements on the array of detectors and knowledge of the properties of the lens. The training data are essentially noiseless, and an estimator is derived for noisy test conditions. An approach based on kernel basis functions is developed. The estimate of the basis function weights is achieved through a regularization or roughness penalty approach. Choosing the regularization parameter to be proportional to the inverse of the input signal-to-noise ratio leads to a minimum prediction error. Experimental results for a 12-element detector array support the theoretical predictions.
Simulation and Extremal Analysis of Hurricane Events
Authors: Casson Edward , Coles Stuart
Published: March 2003

In regions affected by tropical storms the damage caused by hurricane winds can be catastrophic. Consequently, accurate estimates of hurricane activity in such regions are vital. Unfortunately, the severity of events means that wind speed data are scarce and unreliable, even by standards which are usual for extreme value analysis. In contrast, records of atmospheric pressures are more complete. This suggests a two-stage approach: the development of a model describing spatiotemporal patterns of wind field behaviour for hurricane events; then the simulation of such events, using meteorological climate models, to obtain a realization of associated wind speeds whose extremal characteristics are summarized. This is not a new idea, but we apply careful statistical modelling for each aspect of the model development and simulation, taking the Gulf and Atlantic coastlines of the USA as our study area. Moreover, we address for the first time the issue of spatial dependence in extremes of hurricane events, which we find to have substantial implications for regional risk assessments.
Using a Box–Cox Transformation in the Analysis of Longitudinal Data with Incomplete Responses
Authors: Lipsitz Stuart R. , Ibrahim Joseph , Molenberghs Geert
Published: March 2003

We analyse longitudinal data on CD4 cell counts from patients who participated in clinical trials that compared two therapeutic treatments: zidovudine and didanosine. The investigators were interested in modelling the CD4 cell count as a function of treatment, age at base-line and disease stage at base-line. Serious concerns can be raised about the normality assumption of CD4 cell counts that is implicit in many methods and therefore an analysis may have to start with a transformation. Instead of assuming that we know the transformation (e.g. logarithmic) that makes the outcome normal and linearly related to the covariates, we estimate the transformation, by using maximum likelihood, within the Box–Cox family. There has been considerable work on the Box–Cox transformation for univariate regression models. Here, we discuss the Box–Cox transformation for longitudinal regression models when the outcome can be missing over time, and we also implement a maximization method for the likelihood, assumming that the missing data are missing at random.
Bayesian Inference for Rare Errors in Populations with Unequal Unit Sizes
Authors: Laws David J. , O’Hagan Anthony
Published: March 2003

We describe a Bayesian model for a scenario in which the population of errors contains many 0s and there is a known covariate. This kind of structure typically occurs in auditing, and we use auditing as the driving application of the method. Our model is based on a categorization of the error population together with a Bayesian nonparametric method of modelling errors within some of the categories. Inference is through simulation. We conclude with an example based on a data set provided by the UK’s National Audit Office.
Estimating the Transmission Probability of Human Immunodeficiency Virus in Injecting Drug Users in Thailand
Authors: Hudgens Michael G. , Longini Ira. M. , Halloran M. Elizabeth , Choopanya Kachit , Vanichseni Suphak , Kitayaporn Dwip , Mastro Timothy D. , Mock Philip A.
Published: March 2003

We estimate the transmission probability for the human immunodeficiency virus from seroconversion data of a cohort of injecting drug users (IDUs) in Thailand. The transmission probability model developed accounts for interval censoring and incorporates each IDU’s reported frequency of needle sharing and injecting acts. Using maximum likelihood methods, the per needle sharing act transmission probability estimate between infectious and susceptible IDUs is 0.008. The effects of covariates, disease dynamics, mismeasured exposure information and the uncertainty of the disease prevalence on the transmission probability estimate are considered.
Incorporation of Historical Controls Using Semiparametric Mixed Models
Authors: Parise Helen , Wand M. P. , Ruppert David , Ryan Louise
Published: March 2003

The analysis of animal carcinogenicity data is complicated by various statistical issues. A topic of recent debate is how to control for the effect of the animal’s body weight on the outcome of interest, the onset of tumours. We propose a method which incorporates historical information from the control animals in previously conducted experiments. We allow non-linearity in the effects of body weight by modelling the relationship nonparametrically through a penalized spline. A simple extension of the penalized spline model allows the relationship between weight and the onset of tumour to vary from one experiment to another.
Analysis of Repeated Failures or Durations, with Application to Shunt Failures for Patients with Paediatric Hydrocephalus
Authors: Lawless J. F. , Wigg M. B. , Tuli S. , Drake J. , Lamberti-Pasculli M.
Published: March 2003

We consider studies involving the repeated occurrence of certain events, in which the emphasis is on the gaps or times between events. Interesting methodological issues arise in such situations, including the validity of semiparametric methods for multiplicative hazard-based models and the possibilities for marginal analysis of successive gap times. We discuss these and other points in conjunction with an examination of observational data on repeated shunt failures for a population of children with hydrocephalus.
A CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREM FOR m(n) AUTOCOVARIANCES
Authors: Keenan Daniel M.
Published: March 2003

Many of the fundamental results in time series analysis depend on the joint asymptotic normality of a fixed number m of the sample autocovariances. However, in practice, the m is often chosen after the number of observations, n, is known, with m then treated as fixed. In this paper a Berry‐Esseen type result is proved for m(n) autocovariances for m growing at a certain rate.
NON‐PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION WITH STRONGLY DEPENDENT MULTIVARIATE TIME SERIES
Authors: Hidalgo Javier
Published: March 2003

Smooth non‐parametric kernel density and regression estimators are studied when the data are strongly dependent. In particular, we derive central (and non‐central) limit theorems for the kernel density estimator of a multivariate Gaussian process and an infinite‐order moving average of an independent identically distributed process, as well as the estimator's consistency for other types of data, such as non‐linear functions of a Gaussian process. We find that the kernel density estimator at two different points, under certain conditions, is not only perfectly correlated but may converge to the same random variable. Also, central (and non‐central) limit theorems of the non‐parametric kernel regression estimator are studied. One important and surprising characteristic found is that its asymptotic variance does not depend on the point at which the regression function is estimated and also that its asymptotic properties are the same whether or not regressors are strongly dependent. Finally, a Monte Carlo experiment is reported to assess the behaviour of the estimators in finite samples.
Robustness of the autoregressive spectral estimate for linear processes with infinite variance
Authors: Bhansali R. J.
Published: March 2003

Consider a discrete‐time linear process {xt}, a one‐sided moving average of independent identically distributed random variables {εt}, with the common distribution in the domain of attraction of a symmetric stable law of index δ∈ (0, 2) and the moving‐average coefficients b(j) such that εt is invertible in terms of the present and possibly infinite past values of {xt}. By treating {xt} as if it is second‐order stationary, a normalized spectral density function f(μ) is defined in terms of the b(j) and, having observed x1, ..., xT, an autoregression of order k is fitted by the well‐known Yule–Walker and least squares methods and the normalized autoregressive spectral estimators are constructed. On letting k←∞ as T←∞, but sufficiently slowly, these estimators are shown to be uniformly consistent for f(μ), the convergence rate being T−1/φ, φ > δ. The finite sample behaviour is investigated by a simulation study which also examines possible effects of considering ‘non‐invertible’ models.
Testing for long‐range dependence in the presence of shifting means or a slowly declining trend, using a variance‐type estimator
Authors: Teverovsky Vadim , Taqqu Murad
Published: March 2003

In this paper we examine the effects of certain types of non‐ stationarity on the detection of long‐range dependence and on the estimation of the Hurst parameter H, when using a variance‐type estimator. The resulting estimate of H can be misleading when the series has either a jump in the mean or a slow trend. In such a case, plotting the logarithm of the variance versus the logarithm of the level of aggregation gives a curve which is quite different from a straight line. A method for distinguishing between the effects of long‐range dependence and these types of non‐stationarity is developed.
Extremes of bilinear time series models
Authors: Turkman K. F. , Amaral Turkman M. A.
Published: March 2003

The class of bilinear time series models is an obvious generalization of linear ARMA models and has found many applications in time series modeling. It is known that the sample paths of even the simplest bilinear process may have sudden bursts of large negative and positive values that vary in form and amplitude depending on the model parameters. Yet, little is known about the extremal properties of this class. In this paper, we look at the extremal properties of bilinear processes and explain how model parameters affect the extremal behavior.
A study on misspecified nonstationary autoregressive time series with a unit root
Authors: Shin Dong Wan , Lee Yoon Dong
Published: March 2003

The effects of order misspecification in nonstationary autoregressive time series estimations are investigated. The true process is assumed to be stationary if differenced. The ordinary least squares estimator is shown to be weakly convergent and its probability limit is derived. Expressions for the dominating terms of the prediction error and of the prediction mean squared error are derived. Using the expressions and Monte Carlo simulations, we compare prediction errors in the misspecified models based on the observation series and those based on the differenced series.
Testing for Unit Roots and Non‐linear Transformations
Authors: Franses Philip Hans , McAleer Michael
Published: March 2003

It is well known that the augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test of unit roots in univariate time series is sensitive to non‐linear transformations: a common example is when variables expressed in logarithms are found to be stationary, whereas the same variables in levels are found to be non‐stationary. In this paper, the effects of non‐linear transformations on the ADF auxiliary regression are investigated within the class of the Box–Cox model, and a test of non‐linear transformation is developed to assess the adequacy of the ADF regression. The proposed test is computationally simple and is calculated as thet ratio of an added variable in the ADF regression. Cointegration among series which are subject to non‐linear transformations is also analysed, and a simple procedure is developed to test the non‐linear transformation used in cointegration analysis. Several empirical examples taken from the Nelson–Plosser data set illustrate the practical relevance of the proposed test for univariate series, and a second empirical example is used to illustrate the test of non‐linear transformation for cointegrated series
Plug‐in Selection of the Number of Frequencies in Regression Estimates of the Memory Parameter of a Long‐memory Time Series
Authors: Hurvich Clifford M. , Deo Rohit S.
Published: March 2003

We consider the problem of selecting the number of frequencies, m, in a log‐periodogram regression estimator of the memory parameter d of a Gaussian long‐memory time series. It is known that under certain conditions the optimal m, minimizing the mean squared error of the corresponding estimator of d, is given by m(opt)=Cn4/5, where n is the sample size and C is a constant. In practice, C would be unknown since it depends on the properties of the spectral density near zero frequency. In this paper, we propose an estimator of C based again on a log‐periodogram regression and derive its consistency. We also derive an asymptotically valid confidence interval for d when the number of frequencies used in the regression is deterministic and proportional to n4/5. In this case, squared bias cannot be neglected since it is of the same order as the variance. In a Monte Carlo study, we examine the performance of the plug‐in estimator of d, in which m is obtained by using the estimator of C in the formula for m(opt) above. We also study the performance of a bias‐corrected version of the plug‐in estimator of d. Comparisons with the choice m=n1/2 frequencies, as originally suggested by Geweke and Porter‐Hudak (The estimation and application of long memory time series models. Journal of Time Ser. Anal. 4 (1983), 221–37), are provided.
ATesting for the Onset of Trend, Using Wavelets
Authors: Gilbert S. D.
Published: March 2003

This paper develops a test for the onset of a time trend, using a wavelet‐type estimator. The series level is a nonlinear function of time, with a slope that is zero initially, but non‐negative and non‐decreasing, or non‐positive and non‐increasing, beyond the onset point, permitting divergence. The series level is otherwise unspecified, and to estimate it we regress the data series on wavelet scaling functions of time, with a coefficient restriction that makes the fitted level constant until some point in the sample. Since the true onset point is unknown, we examine several such restrictions, yielding candidate onset points at equally spaced positions in the sample. We base our test on some F‐type statistics, which compare the performance of successive fitted levels. To exploit the asymmetry of the true level under the alternative, we use a weighted sum of F stastistics, with linearly increasing weight at points further in the sample. This test statistic has a nonstandard distribution, which we tabulate. Asymptotically, we show that linear weighting gives better local power than equal weighting. A simulation study confirms the power advantage of our test.
Autocovariance Structure of Markov Regime Switching Models and Model Selection
Authors: Zhang Jing , Stine Robert A.
Published: March 2003

We show that the covariance function of a second‐order stationary vector Markov regime switching time series has a vector ARMA(p,q) representation, where upper bounds for p and q are elementary functions of the number of regimes. These bounds apply to vector Markov regime switching processes with both mean–variance and autoregressive switching. This result yields an easily computed method for setting a lower bound on the number of underlying Markov regimes from an estimated autocovariance function.
Efficient use of higher‐lag autocorrelations for estimating autoregressive processes
Authors: BROZE LAURENCE , FRANCQ CHRISTIAN , ZAKOÏAN JEAN‐MICHEL
Published: March 2003

The Yule–Walker estimator is commonly used in time‐series analysis, as a simple way to estimate the coefficients of an autoregressive process. Under strong assumptions on the noise process, this estimator possesses the same asymptotic properties as the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator. However, when the noise is a weak one, other estimators based on higher‐order empirical autocorrelations can provide substantial efficiency gains. This is illustrated by means of a first‐order autoregressive process with a Markov‐switching white noise. We show how to optimally choose a linear combination of a set of estimators based on empirical autocorrelations. The asymptotic variance of the optimal estimator is derived. Empirical experiments based on simulations show that the new estimator performs well on the illustrative model.
Time‐varying autoregressions with model order uncertainty
Authors: PRADO RAQUEL , HUERTA GABRIEL
Published: March 2003

We explore some aspects of the analysis of latent component structure in non‐stationary time series based on time‐varying autoregressive (TVAR) models that incorporate uncertainty on model order. Our modelling approach assumes that the AR coefficients evolve in time according to a random walk and that the model order may also change in time following a discrete random walk. In addition, we use a conjugate prior structure on the autoregressive coefficients and a discrete uniform prior on model order. Simulation from the posterior distribution of the model parameters can be obtained via standard forward filtering backward simulation algorithms. Aspects of implementation and inference on decompositions, latent structure and model order are discussed for a synthetic series and for an electroencephalogram (EEG) trace previously analysed using fixed order TVAR models.
Taxes and Quantity Constraints in a Model of Male Labour Supply in Sweden
Authors: Aronsson Thomas , Karlsson Niklas
Published: March 2003

The purpose of this study is to estimate a model of male labour supply, when agents may be subject to quantity constraints. As the data contain direct information about hours constraints, this information is used in the estimation. We also quantify the importance of such rationing for the response in the hours of work to changes in wages, income and the tax system. As it turns out, quantity constraints appear only to slightly reduce the sensitivity of the average hours of work to changes in the economic environment.
Does the Public Sector Lead the Wage Evolution in the French Economy?
Authors: Redor Dominique
Published: March 2003

Has the wage policy of the State in the French public sector (government services and State owned enterprises) had a leading effect on wages in the private sector up until the early 1980s?

This paper firstly aims at verifying the existence and analysing the causes of this leading effect. The second aim is to estimate the scope of the changes which took place from the early 1980s. It shows that the wage policy of the State did influence disinflation in the 1980s and early 1990s. Indeed, it not only slowed down the growth of wages in the public sector but, by this means, it also influenced indireclty the growth of wages in the private sector.
Choice or Chance? A Duration Analysis of Unemployment Using Information from “Restart” Interviews
Authors: Warren Paul
Published: March 2003

A dataset containing details of the personal characteristics and search behaviour of 1,094 long‐term unemployed males is used to analyse the importance of individual choice in the determination of unemployment durations for this group. The role played by individuals' decisions (concerning factors such as the range of jobs which they are prepared to consider, or the minimum weekly wage which they would accept) is quantified relative to that played by chance (measured by factors which will affect the probability of receiving an offer, e.g. the local unemployment rate).
Institutions, Incentives and Trade Union Membership
Authors: Pehkonen Jaakko , Tanninen Hannu
Published: March 2003

The study investigates the determinants of unionization in a country — Finland — where union density, defined as the number of unionized members divided by the labour force, has risen 60 percentage points in 32 years, from 22 percent in 1960 to 82 percent in 1992. The theoretical framework of the study is based on the background information obtained from surveys inquiring why individuals join a union. The empirical analysis for the period 1962–92 shows that the model is capable of explaining long‐run trends in union density in a very satisfactory manner. The results imply that institutional features of the labour market, characterized by the benefit mark‐up variable and a dummy variable capturing labour legislation and public policy toward unionization, play an important role in the development of union density. An interesting policy implication of the study is the prediction that union density would fall considerably if earnings‐related unemployment allowances were to be cut to the level of the basic unemployment allowances.
The Multiple Linkages between Technological Change, Growth and the Economy. A Review of a Research Programme
Authors: Pietrobelli Carlo
Published: March 2003

This paper discusses the main approaches followed by a European Union‐sponsored research programme on endogenous growth, technological change and interdependence, that has addressed many issues concerning the multiple linkages between technology and the economy, and reviews some of the results. Whilst repeatedly emphasising a perspective that takes into account the enterprise‐level to observe any determinant as well as result of technological changes, this paper introduces an alternative microeconomic approach to technology and technological change, based on the concept of Technological Capabilities. Thus, inter‐firm differences are explicitly considered to understand technological change within an integrated evolutionary framework, encompassing micro‐ and macroeconomic dimensions.
The Diffusion of Unleaded Petrol: An Anglo‐Italian Comparison
Authors: Battisti Giuliana , Stoneman Paul
Published: March 2003

This paper explores and contrasts the factors contributing to the differences between Italy and the UK in the diffusion of unleaded petrol. Although subject to similar regulatory environments the countries exhibit very different patterns in the use of unleaded fuel. It is shown that differences in the composition of the car stock, different price incentives and different patterns of changes in taste are the main contributory factors to this, with changes in taste being the dominant factor.
Is Imperfect Competition in the Product Market Relevant for Labour Markets?
Authors: Weiss Christoph
Published: March 2003

Recent research in macroeconomics emphasises the importance of imperfect competition in the product market for labour market outcomes. We investigate one aspect of this issue by specifying a dynamic labour demand model where firms face different degrees of competition in the product market and test its predictions for 299 US manufacturing industries. We find that the long‐run equilibrium level of industry employment as well as the speed of labour demand adjustment decreases with market power. Our results imply that imperfect competition in the product market explains part of the observed labour market rigidities and also sheds new light on two “stylized facts” in industrial organisation, the observation of procyclical movements in productivity and price–cost margins in concentrated industries.
Unemployment Duration in an Unemployment Blackspot
Authors: Sheehan Maura , Tomlinson Mike
Published: March 2003

This paper analyses the factors affecting the duration of an unemployment spell amongst a sample of exclusively long‐term unemployed individuals. The results indicate that person‐specific unemployment propensities have a significant effect on re‐employment probabilities. These effects, however, vary significantly by gender and religion. The results also indicate statistically significant negative ‘duration dependence’ effects. The evidence suggests that employers regard long unemployment durations as a ‘negative signal’ about an applicant's potential productivity. The latter implies that, in terms of government policies aimed at reducing unemployment, the demand‐side of the unemployment equation should be given greater emphasis.
The Management of Redundancies in Europe: The Case of France
Authors: Caire Guy , Kerschen Nicole
Published: March 2003

The paper presents the findings of comparative and interdisciplinary legal and economic study on managing labour redundancies in seven EU member countries. It is structured for comparability between the systems examined. The introductory section contains an account of the evolution of the French labour market, with special reference to redundancy trends, of the features of the programmes for managing redundancies, of the roles of firms and the ‘external environment’ in handling workforce adjustments. The second section presents a map of policies that work to prevent labour redundancies (preventive measures) such as flexibility, training etc. Next, the instruments for handling temporary labour redundancies (retentive measures) are examined (e.g. short‐time working, temporary layoffs etc.). The following section is devoted to instruments and programmes involved in the management of permanent labour redundancies (expulsive measures), e.g. collective dismissals, severance pay etc. The final section provides an overall assessment of the French system for managing labour redundancies, and briefly discusses the national debate on the prospects for reform, in light of the principles and policies of convergence set forth by the European Union.
Gross Worker Flows: How Does the Spanish Evidence Fit the Stylized Facts?
Authors: Antoln P.
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the Spanish gross worker flows. Unemployment inflows are counter‐cyclical while outflows are acyclical. Changes introduced in the Spanish labour market have increased the magnitude and variability of both flows, in particular the inflows, without affecting the acyclical behaviour of the outflows. Engagements and flows into employment from non‐employment are pro‐cyclical. Separations are acyclical, while flows out of employment to non‐employment are counter‐cyclical. So, job‐to‐job movements have to be pro‐cyclical. Engagements and separations have responded positively to a wider variety of contractual forms. The Spanish evidence seems to be reasonably explained by the existence of a dual labour market between workers under permanent and fixed‐term job contracts.
Delegation and Wage Determination in Trade Unions
Authors: Goerke Laszlo , Hefeker Carsten
Published: March 2003

Delegation of wage determination is modelled as the transferral of decision‐making rights to better‐informed agents. The rank and file of trade unions has less information and can, therefore, benefit from delegation. However, delegation might be disadvantageous for union members, since delegates pursue their own objectives. Also, delegates might incur a utility reduction, since becoming a delegate implies forfeiting a better‐paid outside option. We investigate under what conditions delegation of wage bargaining power is beneficial for union members and their potential leaders. The wage and employment effects of delegation are derived.
Labour Participation of Higher Education Students
Authors: Demeulemeester Jean‐Luc , Rochat Denis
Published: March 2003

The aim of this article is to shed light on the determinants of the decision to participate in the labour force while studying, and of the intensity of this participation as measured by the wages earned by students. We show that students react to their future expected economic benefits associated with their chosen course of study. In this sense, our results confirm Lévy‐Garboua’s (Revue française de Sociologie XVII: 53–80, 1976) thesis of working as an adjustment variable for the variations in the expected rate of return of discipline. Our results indicate that the decision to work while studying and its intensity depend on students’ socioeconomic status and material needs, as well as external financial resources. Altogether, our results suggest that the equity and internal efficiency implications of such a social bias in the labour force participation behaviour might not be too important, but that some public interventions might nevertheless improve the overall external efficiency by allowing students to spend more time on more valorizing activities rather than unskilled and low‐paid jobs.
Trends in Danish Income Distribution
Authors: Pedersen Peder J. , Smith Nina
Published: March 2003

Most of the available evidence on income distribution in Denmark is based on cross‐section studies for a number of specific years, which are difficult to compare owing to major changes in definitions and concepts. The data base for the present study is an existing longitudinal sample of 5 percent of the adult Danish population containing a great number of background variables for the individuals. Based on this, new results on Danish income distribution, using both individuals and married couples as the income unit, are presented. We concentrate on the impact from female participation and from unemployment. In the final parts of the paper we include some semi‐lifecycle distribution measures based on work in the Danish Economic Council and relate our results to earlier long–run estimates of inequality in Danish income distribution.
Acquisition of Literacy in Bilingual Children: A Framework for Research
Authors: Bialystok Ellen
Published: March 2003

Much research that contributes to understanding how bilingual children become literate cannot isolate the contribution of bilingualism itself to the discussion of literacy acquisition for these children. This paper identifies three areas of research relevant to examining literacy acquisition in bilinguals, explains the contribution of each, and associates each with a skill required by monolingual children in becoming literate. A review of the literature explores differences between bilingual and monolingual children in the development of literacy acquisition skills. The relation between bilingualism and the development of each of the three skills is different, sometimes indicating an advantage and sometimes a disadvantage for bilingual children. Bilingualism clearly affects children’s development of literacy, but its effect is neither simple nor unitary.
Rejoinder to Professor Ruback’s article: Warranted and Unwarranted Complexity in the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines
Authors: Kramer John
Published: March 2003

Professor Barry Ruback critiques the U.S. sentencing guidelines for their complexity, their lack of articulated purpose, and their unreliability. In a brief rejoinder to the complexity argument, this article points out that the complexity of previous sentencing practices helped drive the complexity of the guidelines the federal Sentencing Commission developed. Further, it notes that while the commission failed to articulate a philosophical purpose to the guidelines, the commission did develop guidelines that are a modified just desert model. Finally, the complexity of the guidelines does increase the risk of miscalculation and thus unreliability compared to simpler guidelines, but this discussion shows that a fairer benchmark is to past sentencing practices.
Poles Apart: Industrial Waste Management Regulation and Enforcement in the United States and Japan
Authors: Aoki Kazumasu , Cioffi John
Published: March 2003

This article explores the differences in experiences, attitudes, and compliance regarding waste management regulation in a multinational corporation's parallel manufacturing operations in the United States and Japan. The more detailed and prescriptive rules and legalistic and adversarial enforcement processes of the American regulatory “style” engendered more antagonism towards regulation, while the Japanese system’s more general “performance standards” and informal enforcement methods appeared to facilitate acceptance of regulatory norms and improvement in environmental practices. In contrast to the American plants’ marginal profitability and reliance on domestic markets, the Japanese plant’s profitability and substantial exports make its managers more sensitive and responsive to environmental concerns.
Too Much, Too Late: The Advocacy Act in Ontario
Authors: Lightman Ernie , Aviram Uri
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the concept of government‐based social advocacy on behalf of vulnerable people in the community. It uses as a case example the Ontario Advocacy Act, a statute that was surrounded by controversy through its short life. The more general question raised is whether the ideas of government‐based advocacy are fundamentally conceptually untenable, or whether the fault lay with the specifics of the act and its implementation. As governments globally cut back on social supports for vulnerable people, the need for advocacy and support are self‐evident. This paper explores the broader viability of this one, specific type of response.
Can Insider–Outsider Theories Explain the Persistence of Unemployment? An Econometric Study of Two British Industries
Authors: Mulvey Gail C.
Published: March 2003

Using industry‐specific and aggregate data for the period 1952–85, this paper focuses on the potential of the insider–outsider explanation of unemployment to account for the differing economic performance of two British industries, electrical engineering and motor vehicles. The former industry experienced a steady expansion in this period whilst the latter was in relative decline. Although hysteresis was found to be somewhat greater in the motor vehicle industry, insider power was rejected, both as a cause of the persistence of unemployment and as an explanation of that industry's contraction.
Wage Profiles: Shape and Variations
Authors: Arai Kazuhiro
Published: March 2003

This paper shows that wage profiles become similar to expenditure profiles and exhibit similar variations if the firm plays the roles of financial institutions and/or government when the latter institutions do not function perfectly for workers. Wage profiles slope upwards because of intergenerational transfers among the firm's workers reflecting their preferences over life‐cycle consumption. Variations arise when there are generational differences in consumption because of the firm's absorption of risk concerning the price of consumption goods or because of intergenerational risk‐sharing. The shape of the wage profile is affected by how well other institutions function.
Inflation: Too Much Money or Too Much Credit?
Authors: Matthews Kent , Ioannidis Chris
Published: March 2003

This paper presents a vector autoregression type model of inflation, output growth, money and credit. We find that monetary shocks affect the mean of inflation but that credit shocks influence the time variance of inflation.
Inheritance, Steady‐State Consumption Inequality, and the Lifetime Earnings Process
Authors: Wilhelm Mark O.
Published: March 2003

This paper presents a tractable model where the effect of inheritance on steady‐state consumption inequality can be derived under both linear and piecewise linear bequest functions. As has been found in previous research, the linear bequest function yields inheritances which reduce consumption inequality regardless of the model’s parameters. However, in the piecewise linear model, whether inheritances increase or reduce steady‐state consumption inequality depends on the magnitude of the marginal propensity to bequeath, the amount of earnings inequality and the degree of intergenerational earnings mobility.
Exchange Rate Misalignments and Adjustments: Implications for Floating and Fixed Parity Systems
Authors: Parker Simon C.
Published: March 2003

We present a microeconomic efficiency cost framework for discriminating between fixed and floating exchange rate systems, and illustrate it with UK data over 1975–90. It is found that a fixed parity system would have been unambiguously preferred to a floating system over this period, unless the parity were set sufficiently non‐centrally or costs from persistent currency overvaluation were sufficiently high. Under no circumstances could a floating parity have been unambiguously preferred to a fixed parity system.
Does Central Bank Independence Smooth the Political Business Cycle in Inflation? Some OECD Evidence
Authors: Hadri Kaddour , Lockwood Ben , Maloney John
Published: March 2003

In this paper, electoral and partisan effects in inflation are identified for 18 OECD countries via regression analysis, building on the work of Alesina, Cohen and Roubini. The correlation of the size of these effects across countries with the level of central bank independence is investigated; the results suggest a negative correlation.
Exchange Rate Policy When The Labour Market Exhibits Hysteresis
Authors: Barry Frank
Published: March 2003

The effects of exchange rate changes in a three‐sector small open economy are analysed, first under full employment and then under conditions of labour‐market hysteresis. The model is used to critique the response of the Irish authorities to the exchange rate crisis of 1992–93 that resulted from the sharp depreciation of sterling relative to the deutschmark and the Irish pound.