The influence of the depth and intensity of seasonal fluctuations on hotel activities
Authors:   Turgenev Orel State University, Kozlova Veronika A. 
Published: October 2024

Currently, hospitality enterprises are faced with the problem of loading the number of rooms. At the same time, many hotels are faced with seasonal fluctuations in the volume of sales of hotel services. This situation leads to a lack of profit in certain periods, uneven workload on the enterprise and personnel, etc. Different types of hotel enterprises are affected by seasonality to varying degrees. Seasonality is relevant for various hotels, both resort and city. At the same time, each hotel may have its own seasonality: the factors that caused seasonal fluctuations differ. In some cases, these are climatic conditions, in others, event events in the region, focus on serving a certain segment, etc. Thus, the impact of seasonality on hotel operations should not be underestimated. The main problem here lies in the need to forecast the volume of sales of services, taking into account seasonal fluctuations. When assessing the impact of seasonality on sales volumes of hotel services, it is necessary to take into account such parameters as the depth, intensity, and duration of seasonal fluctuations. The object of research in this article is the GRINN hotel complex, located in the city of Orel. The study of seasonal fluctuations for this hotel enterprise is relevant. The work uses a method for determining seasonal fluctuations, which consists in calculating seasonality indices. They were calculated as a percentage of average monthly levels for a number of years to the total average monthly volume of services sold for the entire billing period. For the calculation, reporting data provided by the GRINN Group of Companies for six years (2017-2022) were used. First of all, the attendance of the GRINN Group of Companies was analyzed, as well as load factors. The data obtained made it possible to calculate seasonality indices. On their basis, “seasonal waves” were built. At the same time, a comparison was made between the pre-pandemic period and the pandemic period. Next, we compared the load factor and turnover in the GRINN Group of Companies. During the research, the following results were obtained. The maximum attendance of the hotel complex was noted in 2022 (38,832 people), the maximum average annual occupancy rate was in 2019 (50.3%). The year 2020 was the least successful year for the company, which was due to the coronavirus pandemic. In 2021-2022, a gradual recovery of indicators begins. In general, the following conclusions were drawn. The GRINN Group of Companies is characterized by minor seasonal fluctuations. They are determined by the specifics of this hospitality enterprise. Since the company is focused on serving organized groups and business tourists, attendance is influenced by the business activity of the region, as well as event events. In addition, it was established that there is no close connection between the occupancy level of a hotel and its profitability. It was proven that fewer customers can generate more revenue and vice versa. It was determined that the GRINN Group of Companies has the necessary potential to combat seasonal fluctuations.