bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN FISKAL TERHADAP OUTPUT DAN INFLASI
Authors: Surjaningsih Ndari , Utari G. A. Diah , Trisnanto Budi
Published: January 2017

Penelitian ini melihat dampak kebijakan fiskal terhadap output dan inflasi serta melihat apakah terdapat diskresi kebijakan fiskal dan bagaimana dampaknya terhadap volatilitas output dan inflasi. Model Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)diaplikasikan atas data triwulanan, mencakup periode 1990 - 2009. Hasil empiris menunjukkan bahwa terdapat hubungan kointegrasi antara pengeluaran pemerintah dan pajak terhadap output dalam jangka panjang. Dalam jangka panjang pengenaan pajak berdampak positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi sementara pengeluaran pemerintah tidak. Penyesuaian jangka pendek menunjukkan bahwa shock kenaikan pengeluaran pemerintah berdampak positif terhadap output sementara shock kenaikan pajak berdampak negatif.Lebih dominannya pengaruh pengeluaran pemerintah terhadap output dalam jangka pendek dibandingkan dengan pajak menunjukkan masih cukup efektifnya kebijakan ini untuk menstimulasi pertumbuhan ekonomi khususnya dalam masa resesi. Sementara itu kenaikan pengeluaran pemerintahmenyebabkan penurunan inflasi, sementara peningkatan pajak menyebabkan peningkatan inflasi. Studi ini juga menunjukkan tidak adanya diskresi kebijakan fiskal yang dilakukan oleh pemerintah.Keywords: Inflation, output, fiscal policy, tax, discretionary, VECM.JEL Classification: E31, E62
QUARTERLY ANALYSIS: The Progress of Monetary, Banking and Payment System Quarter II – 2012
Authors: Bank Indonesia Author Team of Quarterly Report
Published: January 2017

During the increasing uncertainty of the global economy, Indonesia is still able to grow by 6.4% (yoy). The main source of the economic growth is domestic demands, which are the increasing household consumptions and investments. The high household consumption is in accordance with the consumers’ confidence and stable consumers’ purchasing power, as indicated from the high sales of retailer. The high consumption and conducive business climate lead to the increase of investment. This condition is supported by business agents’ optimism. Meanwhile, the export growth slowed rapidly as the impact of the slowing down global economy that leads to decreasing demand of the main trading partner country and the low price of commodities. On the other hand, import increase along with the increase of investment activities, particularly machinery and conveyance equipment investment. In the future, the prospect of Indonesian economy would remain strong by 6.3-6.7% in 2012; even several factors of risk should be monitored.
META-ANALYSIS OF MONEY DEMAND IN INDONESIA
Authors: Riyandi Galih
Published: January 2017

Theory and empirical study about demand for money is the key feature in macroeconomics theory. The study about demand for money in Indonesia has been developing with various techniques. Its result in various analyses can be difficult in understanding behaviour of demand for money in Indonesia. This paper aims to find out the tendency of demand for money in Indonesia by analyzing long run and short run income elasticity and opportunity cost elasticity. We use fixed effects meta-analysis and unweighted average meta-analysis. The result shows that income elasticity and opportunity cost elasticity are consistent with theory of money demand. That result can be used as an empirical foundation to future study about demand for money in Indonesia.  Keywords: demand for money, meta analysis, fixed effects.JEL Classification code: E41, E52
INTERMEDIATION CHARACTERISTICS AND FUNCTIONS OF BANKING IN INDONESIA
Authors: Siringoringo Renniwaty
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the influence of ownership and specific characteristic of banks on the capital structure and the intermediation function of commercial banks in Indonesia. Using multivariate regression on bank level data of 2006-2009, the result shows the ownership structure, profitability, size, and management expense affect the bank capital structure, with a total effect of 50.14%. Towards the bank intermediation, with a total effect of 27.01%, the ownership structure, profitability, bank size, credit risk, expense management and capital structure influence the banks intermediation function. Keywords : Ownership structure, specific characteristic of bank, capital structure and bank intermediation functionJEL Classification: G21, G32
DOES THE LOCAL ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE IN INDONESIAPERFORM AN IMPROVEMENT?
Authors: Kuncoro Haryo
Published: January 2017

Governance has gone through radical changes over the last twenty five years. Seemingly, it became one of the important strategies, processes, methods and mechanisms in governing countries to achieve economic development goals. The objective of this paper is to observe the local economic governance dynamics in the case of districts/municipalities in Indonesia. First, the dynamics behavior of local governance over time is analyzed by visual inspection of their non-parametric density distribution. More deeply, we use Markov chains to predict a pattern of change in local economic governance toward its steady state. Based on comparison between 2007 and 2011 data delivered by Commission of Regional Autonomy Implementation Watch, we conclude that there is a high level of persistence in the relative position of local governance index, consistent with a low degree of mobility in the index distribution implying the implementation of governance in the districts/municipalities in Indonesia is weak enough. This finding implies that the local economic governance is a key to achieve sustainable regional economic growth in line with fiscal decentralization and regional autonomy. Keywords : Local Economic Governance, Decentralization, Regional Economic Growth, Kernel Densities, Markov ChainsJEL Classification: H70, O43, O56
ANALISIS META PERMINTAAN UANG DI INDONESIA
Authors: Riyandi Galih
Published: January 2017

Theory and empirical study about demand for money is the key feature in macroeconomics theory. The study about demand for money in Indonesia has been developing with various techniques. Its result in various analyses can be difficult in understanding behaviour of demand for money in Indonesia. This paper aims to find out the tendency of demand for money in Indonesia by analyzing long run and short run income elasticity and opportunity cost elasticity. We use fixed effects meta-analysis and unweighted average meta-analysis. The result shows that income elasticity and opportunity cost elasticity are consistent with theory of money demand. That result can be used as an empirical foundation to future study about demand for money in Indonesia.Keywords: demand for money, meta analysis, fixed effects.JEL Classification code: E41, E52
KARAKTERISTIK DAN FUNGSI INTERMEDIASI PERBANKAN DI INDONESIA
Authors: Siringoringo Renniwaty
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the influence of ownership and specific characteristic of banks on the capital structure and the intermediation function of commercial banks in Indonesia. Using multivariate regression on bank level data of 2006-2009, the result shows the ownership structure, profitability, size, and management expense affect the bank capital structure, with a total effect of 50.14%. Towards the bank intermediation, with a total effect of 27.01%, the ownership structure, profitability, bank size, credit risk, expense management and capital structure influence the banks intermediation function.Keywords : Ownership structure, specific characteristic of bank, capital structure and bank intermediation functionJEL Classification: G21, G32
QUARTERLY ANALYSIS: The Progress of Monetary, Banking and Payment System Quarter III – 2012
Authors: Bank Indonesia Author Team of Quarterly Report
Published: January 2017

The domestic economy is still growing quite well despite a slight slowdown. Indonesia’s economic growth in the third quarter of 2012 grew by 6.2%, slightly lower than previous forecasts due to a continuing decline in the performance of the external sector. Although consumption and domestic-orientated investment demand remains high, falling exports have resulted in decreased production and export-oriented investment. Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to rise again, driven by domestic consumption and investment which remains strong. Exports are predicted to also improve in line with the improving economy with some major trading partners, though it will still be shadowed by uncertainties in the global economic conditions. With these developments in the Indonesian economy for the entire year of 2012, the economy in 2013 is forecasted to grow 6.3% in rising into the range of 6.3% -6.7%.
OPTIMAL CREDIT GROWTH
Authors: Utari G.A Diah , Arimurti Trinil , Kurnia Ina Nurmalia
Published: January 2017

Banking credit has an important role in financing the national economy and as engine of economic growth. The high growth of credit is a commonly normal phenomenon as a positive consequence from the increase of financial deepening in economy. On the other hand, one must consider the implication of credit growth towards the financial stabilization and macro condition. Therefore, the policy authority should be able to identify the credit growth that is considered to be risky for the financial system and the macro stability. This research measures the credit growth without negative impact towards the economy and the banking condition. The testing uses Markov Switching (MS) Univariate approach and MS Vector Error Correction Model. The result with MS Univariate approach shows that the upper limit of the real credit growth in moderate regime is about 17.39 percent, while using the MS VECM approach is about 22.15 percent. Keywords: bank, credit, risk, markov switching error correction modelJEL classification: G21, E51, C23,C24
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH : EVIDENCE FROM EAST ASIAN ECONOMIES
Authors: Raz Arisyi F. , Indra Tamarind P. K. , Artikasih Dea K. , Citra Syalinda
Published: January 2017

As economies become more integrated in the midst of globalization, financial crisis that occurs in one country can easily transmit to other countries, becoming global financial catastrophe in a short period of time. In such event, strong economic fundamentals are particularly important to defend a country from the contagious effect of the crisis. As evidence, due to the fragile economic fundamentals and lacking government credibility, East Asian economies were easily attacked by the crisis in 1997 once the sentiment deteriorated. Nevertheless, the region had learned its lessons in 1997 thereby proofing its resilience in facing the global financial crisis that struck in 2008 by improving its economic fundamentals as well as policymakers’ credibility. This paper starts with theories on economic growth and financial crisis. Further, it empirically examines to what extent the financial crises in 1997 and 2008 affect East Asian economies by using panel data econometrics. The evidence shows that, even though both crises have contributed adverse impacts on East Asian economies, the magnitude of the 2008 crisis was relatively less severe than that in 1997. Finally, this study also provides further discussions regarding how East Asian economies had successfully minimized the impact of the global crisis in 2008. Keywords: Global Financial Crises; East Asian Economies; Economic Growth;Financial Market; Random and Fixed EffectsJEL Classification: C330, E440, G010
THE DYNAMICS SPILLOVER OF TRADE BETWEEN INDONESIA AND ITS COUNTERPARTS IN TERMS OF AFTA 2015 : A MODIFIED GRAVITY EQUATION APPROACH
Authors: Suryanta Barli
Published: January 2017

The forthcoming 2015, ASEAN is being confident to implement ASEAN Free Trade (AFTA). The existence of AFTA is to outstrip trade liberalization due to augment trade volume significantly and transaction easing as well among the members of AFTA, mainly by inducing lower tariffs some certain commodities up to 0%. This paper is conducted in order to examine on what prominent commodity of Indonesia compared to its counterparts namely Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. These Indonesia counterparts are selected therefore they were the founding of ASEAN. Furthermore, this paper utilizes a modified Gravity Equation model. This model has an effort to estimate the significance of some parameters of variable from model equation. Thus, it can be detected that what are from these variables from a model equation being as a key determination factor to influence trading transactions. This paper also assesses the adjusted R-squared due to which Indonesia counterparts incur some vantage points as well as beneficial for Indonesia in terms of AFTA. The novelty contribution of this paper is to reveal the dynamics trade spillover between Indonesia some strategic sectors and its counterparts. By doing so, Indonesia is expected to be a dominant player in AFTA 2015 and taking some advantageous from AFTA into Indonesia account. Keywords: AFTA 2015, a modified gravity equation model, analysis of data panelJEL Classification: C33, C51, F15
ANALISIS TRIWULAN III - 2012
Authors: Laporan Triwulanan Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis
Published: January 2017

Perekonomian domestik masih tumbuh cukup baik walaupun mengalami sedikit perlambatan. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada triwulan III 2012 tumbuh sebesar 6,2%, sedikit lebih rendah dari prakiraan sebelumnya akibat penurunan kinerja sektor eksternal yang masih berlanjut. Meskipun konsumsi dan investasi yang berorientasi permintaan domestik tetap tumbuh tinggi, penurunan ekspor telah berdampak pada penurunan produksi dan investasi yang berorientasi ekspor. Ke depan, pertumbuhan ekonomi diprakirakan akan kembali meningkat, ditopang oleh konsumsi dan investasi domestik yang tetap kuat. Ekspor diprakirakan juga akan mengalami perbaikan sejalan dengan membaiknya perekonomian beberapa negara mitra dagang utama, meskipun masih dibayangi ketidakpastian kondisi perekonomian global. Dengan perkembangan tersebut, ekonomi Indonesia untuk keseluruhan tahun 2012 diprakirakan tumbuh 6,3% dan pada tahun 2013 meningkat menuju kisaran 6,3%-6,7%.
PERTUMBUHAN KREDIT OPTIMAL
Authors: Utari G.A Diah , Arimurti Trinil , Kurniati Ina Nurmalia
Published: January 2017

Banking credit has an important role in financing the national economy and as engine of economic growth. The high growth of credit is a commonly normal phenomenon as a positive consequence from the increase of financial deepening in economy. On the other hand, one must consider the implication of credit growth towards the financial stabilization and macro condition. Therefore, the policy authority should be able to identify the credit growth that is considered to be risky for the financial system and the macro stability. This research measures the credit growth without negative impact towards the economy and the banking condition. The testing uses Markov Switching (MS) Univariate approach and MS Vector Error Correction Model. The result with MS Univariate approach shows that the upper limit of the real credit growth in moderate regime is about 17.39 percent, while using the MS VECM approach is about 22.15 percent.Keywords: bank, credit, risk, markov switching error correction modelJEL classification: G21, E51, C23,C24
IMPACT OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL SHOCK TO INTERNATIONAL BANK LENDING IN INDONESIA
Authors: Silalahi Tumpak , Wibowo Wahyu Ari , Nurliana Linda
Published: January 2017

This study intends to determine whether a shock that occurred in developed countries, the source of funding, was transmitted to Indonesia through international bank lending both directly and indirectly. The methods used estimated the determinants of international bank lending. International bank lending is one form of capital flows that have the potential for rapid reversal and that can lead to a financial crisis as it has in the past. Understanding the determinants of bank lending is important as it can be used to mitigate the impact of a financial crisis in the future. The empirical results showed that international bank lending, either directly or indirectly, contributed to the Indonesian crisis. During the shock, Indonesia saw global banking contract financing. It was also found that credit activities by foreign affiliates in Indonesia saw a contraction in the country of the parent bank during the shock. However, it was found that the bank lending by foreign affiliates, as joint ventureswere more stable compared to the branch offices of a foreign bank. In aggregate, international bank lending is affected by push and pulls factors such as economic growth (in developed countries and Indonesia), risk factors, and liquidity conditions, both in Indonesia and globally. As for micro-banking models, other than the push and pull factors, the bank balance sheet and other portfolio assets also affected bank lending activities to Indonesia.Keywords: Global Financial Shocks, Foreign Affiliates, International Bank Lending, transmission path,dynamic panel.JEL Classification: C33, E51, G15
QUARTERLY ANALYSIS: The Progress of Monetary, Banking and Payment System Quarter IV – 2012
Authors: Bank Indonesia Author Team of Quarterly Report
Published: January 2017

Indonesia’s economic growth in the fourth quarter 2012 was still going strong, although it was slower than the previous quarter. Indonesia’s economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2012 reached 6.11%, while for the whole of 2012 it reached 6.23%. Good economic growth was supported by quite strong domestic demand. Consumption and investment performance still grew strong during this quarter, though it was moderate compared with the previous period. Export performance began to show improvement in line with the economic recovery in some major trading partner countries. Imports recorded a high growth along with the strong domestic demand. Looking ahead, for the whole of 2013, economic growth is expected to reach the range of 6.3% - 6.8%.
Risk Taking Behavior of Indonesian Banks: Analysis on the Impact of Deposit Insurance Corporation Establishment
Authors: Ariefianto Moch Doddy , Soepomo Soenartomo
Published: January 2017

This paper studies the risk taking behavior of Indonesian Banking Industry, especially before and after the establishment and the implementation of Deposit Insurance Corporation (IDIC). Using common set of explanatory variables; we test several empirical models to reveal the conduct of risk management by banks. In the spirit of BASEL II Accord, this paper take closer look at three types of risk behaviors namely credit risk, market or interest rate risk and operational risk, prior and post the establishment of IDIC. We tested the hypotheses using panel data set of banks operational in period of 2000-2009. The dataset consists of 121 banks with semiannual frequency (2420 observations). Our findings show that these variables explain well the three type bank risk exposures. The implementation of IDIC alters the bank behavior albeit in somewhat different way than initially hypothesized. The risk taking responses also varies across bank types. We found that State Owned Enterprise banks (SOE) behave differently relative to the rest types of the bank. Related to size, SOE banks behave more conservative after the implementation of IDIC. On the other hand its response on conditioned capital post the IDIC implementation is the opposite; they became more aggressive. We view the public pressure on this state banks has influenced the way they manage the risk. Keywords : Risk taking behavior, BASEL II, Deposit Insurance.JEL Classification: G11, G21, G32, C23
THE ROLE OF ASEAN EXCHANGE RATE UNIT (AERU) FOR ASEAN-5 MONETARY INTEGRATION: AN OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA
Authors: Kusuma Dimas Bagus Wiranata , Ashif Syed Mohammed Abud , Harahap Ali Musa , Omarsyah Muhammad Alam
Published: January 2017

The idea for regional monetary integration is grounded by the process of convergence theory within the member states. The paper analyses the possibility of monetary union in ASEAN-5 countries, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore. In terms of volatility, by using nominal deviation indicator assessment, the ASEAN-5 currencies are suggested to peg their national currencies into Yuan since it empirically brings the lowest level of volatility, both during normal and crisis periods. Therefore, Yuan could be proposed as the anchor currency for ASEAN-5 countries. Moreover, valuing the AERU in terms of a weighed average of Yuan is important to determine which countries are considered to be an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). The results statistically suggest that all ASEAN-5 countries could be grouped as OCA according to exchange rate stability criterion. Keywords : Optimum Currency Area, AERU, ASEAN-5, Exchange Rate StabilityJEL Classification : D81, E52, F15, F36
ANALISIS TRIWULANAN: Perkembangan Moneter, Perbankan dan Sistem Pembayaran, Triwulan IV - 2012
Authors: Laporan Triwulanan Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis
Published: January 2017

Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada triwulan IV 2012 masih tumbuh cukup kuat, meskipun melambat dibandingkan dengan triwulan sebelumnya. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia pada triwulan IV 2012 mencapai 6,11%, sehingga untuk keseluruhan tahun 2012 mencapai 6,23%. Masih baiknya pertumbuhan ekonomi ditopang oleh permintaan domestik yang masih cukup kuat. Kinerja konsumsi dan investasi pada triwulan laporan masih tumbuh cukup kuat, meskipun termoderasi dibandingkan dengan periode sebelumnya. Kinerja ekspor mulai menunjukkan perbaikan sejalan dengan membaiknya perekonomian di beberapa negara mitra dagang utama. Impor mencatat pertumbuhan yang cukup tinggi sejalan dengan masih kuatnya permintaan domestik. Ke depan, untuk keseluruhan tahun 2013, pertumbuhan ekonomi diprakirakan akan mencapai kisaran 6,3%-6,8%.
RISK TAKING BEHAVIOR OF INDONESIAN BANKS: ANALAYSIS ON THE IMPACT OF DEPOSIT INSURANCE COOPERATION ESTABLISHMENT
Authors: Ariefianto Moch Doddy , Soepomo Soenartomo
Published: January 2017

This paper studies the risk taking behavior of Indonesian Banking Industry, especially before and after the establishment and the implementation of Deposit Insurance Corporation (IDIC). Using common set of explanatory variables; we test several empirical models to reveal the conduct of risk management by banks. In the spirit of BASEL II Accord, this paper take closer look at three types of risk behaviors namely credit risk, market or interest rate risk and operational risk, prior and post the establishment of IDIC. We tested the hypotheses using panel data set of banks operational in period of 2000-2009. The dataset consists of 121 banks with semiannual frequency (2420 observations). Our findings show that these variables explain well the three type bank risk exposures. The implementation of IDIC alters the bank behavior albeit in somewhat different way than initially hypothesized. The risk taking responses also varies across bank types. We found that State Owned Enterprise banks (SOE) behave differently relative to the rest types of the bank. Related to size, SOE banks behave more conservative after the implementation of IDIC. On the other hand its response on conditioned capital post the IDIC implementation is the opposite; they became more aggressive. We view the public pressure on this state banks has influenced the way they manage the risk.Keywords : Risk taking behavior, BASEL II, Deposit Insurance.JEL Classification: G11, G21, G32, C23
CAPITAL FLOWS DI INDONESIA: PERILAKU, PERAN, DAN OPTIMALITAS PENGGUNAANNYA BAGI PEREKONOMIAN
Authors: Indawan Fiskara , Fitriani Sri , Permata Meily Ika , Karlina Indriani
Published: January 2017

Berlimpahnya likuiditas global paska krisis global mengakibatkan membanjirnya aliran modal internasional ke pasar Surat Utang Negara (SUN). Selain bermanfaat, aliran modal asing tersebut,berpotensi menimbul risiko pembalikan aliran modal asing yang dapat menimbulkan ketidakstabilan di pasar keuangan domestik. Paper ini menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi keputusan investasi investor asing, yang mencakup faktor risiko dan return yang berasal dari domestik (pull factor) dan global (push factor). Hasil pengujian menunjukkan push factor sangat berperan mempengaruhi perilaku investor asing di pasar SUN. Bagi investor long-term, perilaku mereka untuk menempatkan dananya di pasar SUN dipengaruhi push factor, tetapi tidak dipengaruhi secara signifikan oleh pull factor. Namun bagi investor short-term, baik pull maupun push factor, mempengaruhi keputusan investasi mereka. Selain itu hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa ke depan, prospek investor asing di pasar SUN masih menghadapi tantangan khususnya dari sisi volatilitas yang relatif tinggi sebagai akibat dari sensitifnya investor asing terhadap shock yang sewaktu-waktu dapat terjadi di tengah ketidakpastian kondisi pasar keuangan internasional akibat penyelesaian krisis utang di negara maju yang berlarut-larut. Dalam hal ini, Bank Indonesia dan Pemerintah perlu terus mempertahankan upaya untuk menjaga dan mengelola return dan risiko investasi di dalam negeri pada level yang lebih kompetitif dan relatif rendah dengan menjaga kekuatan dan ketangguhan perekonomian serta stabilitas keuangan domestik.Keywords : Foreign Exchange, International Lending, Corporate Finance.JEL Classification : F31, F34, G3
THE ROLE OF ASEAN EXCHANGE RATE UNIT (AERU) FOR ASEAN-5 MONETARY INTEGRATION: AN OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA
Authors: Wiranata Kusuma Dimas Bagus , Abud Ashif Syed Mohammed , Harahap Ali Musa , Omarsyah Muhammad Alam
Published: January 2017

The idea for regional monetary integration is grounded by the process of convergence theory within the member states. The paper analyses the possibility of monetary union in ASEAN-5 countries, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore. In terms of volatility, by using nominal deviation indicator assessment, the ASEAN-5 currencies are suggested to peg their national currencies into Yuan since it empirically brings the lowest level of volatility, both during normal and crisis periods. Therefore, Yuan could be proposed as the anchor currency for ASEAN-5 countries. Moreover, valuing the AERU in terms of a weighed average of Yuan is important to determine which countries are considered to be an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). The results statistically suggest that all ASEAN-5 countries could be grouped as OCA according to exchange rate stability criterion.Keywords : Optimum Currency Area, AERU, ASEAN-5, Exchange Rate StabilityJEL Classification : D81, E52, F15, F36
PENGARUH KRISIS EKONOMI AMERIKA SERIKAT TERHADAP BURSA SAHAM DAN PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA
Authors: Nezky Mita
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the impact of the financial crisis in United States 2008 on Indonesia’s economy, by using Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model of 5 variables; Dow Jones Industrial Average, exchange rate, composite stock price index (IHSG), production index and trade tax income. The result shows that the US crisis affects the capital market in Indonesia where the Dow Jones Industrial Average plays greater role in explaining the IHSG, compared to Rupiah rate, production index and the trade income tax. In addition, the US crisis affects the volume and the trade income tax in Indonesia. These empirical results bring policy implication for Bappepam-LK as stock market regulator to intervene or to suspend the trade when the volatility exceeds the psychological threshold. It also emphasizes the necessity to diversify the export country destination and to increase the quality and the value added of Indonesian export.Keywords : US Crisis, stock market, trade, SVAR.JEL Classification : G18
QUARTERLY ANALYSIS: The Progress of Monetary, Banking and Payment System, First Quarter – 2013
Authors: Bank Indonesia Author Team of Quarterly Report
Published: January 2017

Indonesia’s economy in the first quarter 2013 growth slowed compared to the previous quarter. Economic growth stood at 6.02% (yoy), lower than the previous quarter grew by 6.11% (yoy). A source of slowing growth came from domestic demand amid declining export performance. Slowing growth in household consumption was due to the decrease in purchasing power as a result of an increase in inflationary pressures, especially food. In addition, government consumption growth is relatively low, due to the limited uptake of spending, especially spending on goods. A decline also occurred in investment performance, particularly non-construction that is influenced by limited domestic and international demand outlook. Decline in investment performance is in line with the decline in business optimism. In non-construction investment, there is reduced performance in machinery investment, in line with the slowdown in the imports of capital goods. In contrast, exports showed improvement, supported by strengthening expectations of global economic recovery and rising volume of world trade. Response to slowing domestic demandsaw a contraction in imports. Sources of downward import pressure are from the imports of raw materials and capital goods, mainly raw materials for the industrial and passenger vehicle industry which has seen a slowdown and moderation in response to motor vehicle sales.
The Effect of Central Bank Independence on Price Stability: The Case of Indonesia
Authors: Andriani Yessy , Gai Prof. Prasanna
Published: January 2017

This paper investigates the relationship between central bank independence (CBI) and inflation in Indonesia during 1970-2006. Using partial adjustment Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Engel Granger Error Correction Model, the result shows that legal CBI index inversely affect the inflation, while the turnover of governor is not significant. This result emphasizes Bank Indonesia to strengthen its independency in order to achieve his inflation target. Keywords: Central bank independency, Inflation, Error Correction Model.JEL Classification : C32, E58
THE ISLAMIC CAPITAL MARKET VOLATILITY: A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN IN INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA
Authors: Antonio Muhammad Syafii , Hafidhoh Hafidhoh , Fauzi Hilman
Published: January 2017

This study attempts to examine the short-term and long-term relationship among selected global and domestic macroeconomic variables from each country (Fed rate, crude oil price, Dow Jones Index, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation) for Indonesia and Malaysia Islamic capital market (Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index (FHSI). The methodology used in this study is vector error correction model (VECM) for the monthly data starting from January 2006 to December 2010. The result shows that in the long-term, all selected macroeconomic variables except Dow Jones Index variable have significantly affect in both Islamic stock market FHSI and JII, while in the short-term there is no any selected macroeconomic variables that significantly affect FHSI and only inflation, exchange rate and crude oil price variables seem to significantly affect JII. Keywords : Islamic Stock Market, Jakarta Islamic Index, FTSE Hijrah Shariah Index, VAR/VECMJEL Classification: E52, E44
BANKING INDUSTRY COMPETITION IN INDONESIA
Authors: Widyastuti Ratna Sri , Armanto Boedi
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the competition level of banking industry, prior and after the introduction of Indonesian Banking Architecture (API). Using panel data, the result shows the competition of banking decreased after the introduction of API, with large tendency to monopoly or collusive olligopoly. For the bank with niche market such as regional bank and mix bank, the introduction of API did not affect much, while the competition level for foreign bank is the lowest one. Non price variable would be the main determinant on banking competition in the future, including number of branches, wage and credit volume. Keywords: banking competition, market structure, Indonesian Banking Architecture (API).JEL Classification: C23, D40, E44, E58, G21, L11
ANALISIS TRIWULANAN: Perkembangan Moneter, Perbankan, dan Sistem Pembayaran, TRIWULAN I - 2013
Authors: Laporan Triwulanan Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis
Published: January 2017

Perekonomian Indonesia pada triwulan I 2013 tumbuh melambat dibandingkan dengan triwulan sebelumnya. Pertumbuhan ekonomi tercatat sebesar 6,02% (yoy), lebih rendah dari triwulan sebelumnya yang tumbuh sebesar 6,11% (yoy). Sumber perlambatan pertumbuhan berasal dari menurunnya permintaan domestik di tengah membaiknya kinerja ekspor. Perlambatan pertumbuhan konsumsi rumah tangga disebabkan oleh penurunan daya beli masyarakat sebagai akibat peningkatan tekanan inflasi, khususnya makanan. Selain itu, konsumsi pemerintah tumbuh relatif rendah, akibat masih terbatasnya serapan belanja, khususnya belanja barang. Penurunan kinerja juga terjadi pada investasi, khususnya nonbangunan yang dipengaruhi oleh prospek permintaan domestik dan internasional yang terbatas. Penurunan kinerja investasi tersebut juga sejalan dengan menurunnya optimisme pelaku bisnis. Pada investasi nonbangunan, penurunan kinerja terutama pada investasi mesin-mesin, sejalan dengan perlambatan impor barang modal. Sebaliknya, ekspor menunjukkan perbaikan, didukung oleh penguatan ekspektasi pemulihan ekonomi global dan kenaikan volume perdagangan dunia. Merespons perlambatan permintaan domestik, kinerja impor mengalami kontraksi. Sumber tekanan pelemahan impor berasal dari impor bahan baku dan barang modal, terutama bahan baku untuk industri dan kendaraan penumpang yang merespons perlambatan industri serta moderasi penjualan kendaraan bermotor.
MENGUKUR TIME INCONSISTENCY KEBIJAKAN MONETER DI INDONESIA
Authors: Rahmahdian Rini , Warjiyo Perry
Published: January 2017

This study measured the time inconsistency of monetary policy in Indonesia using the asymmetric preference parameter in linear exponential loss function of the central bank. Asymmetric central bank preference becomes an important issue since many of the results on the time inconsistency problem under symmetric preferences may no longer hold under asymmetric preferences. Using two sub-samples, i.e. before and after the implementation of central bank independence act, the conditional mean and the conditional variance of the output gap were estimated and then proceed to estimate the reduced form of the model. The results showed the existence of an asymmetric preference parameter before the Bank Indonesia independence act, which indicated the presence of a time inconsistency problem of monetary policy. This finding implies Bank Indonesia put a negative weight instead of positive weight on the output gap prior to its independency. However, after the implementation of central bank independence, the monetary policy of Bank Indonesia has been consistent with symmetric policy preference over price stability and output. Keywords: Time inconsistency, discretionary, monetary policy, asymmetric central bank preference, output gap, inflation bias.JEL Classification : E52, E58
THE ISLAMIC CAPITAL MARKET VOLATILITY: A COMPARATIVE STUDY BETWEEN IN INDONESIA AND MALAYSIA
Authors: Antonio Muhammad Syafii , Hafidhoh Hafidhoh , Fauzi Hilman
Published: January 2017

This study attempts to examine the short-term and long-term relationship among selected global anddomestic macroeconomic variables fromeach country (Fed rate, crude oil price, Dow Jones Index, interest rate, exchange rate and inflation) for Indonesia and Malaysia Islamic capital market (Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) and FTSE Bursa Malaysia Hijrah Shariah Index (FHSI). The methodology used in this study is vector error correction model (VECM) for the monthly data starting from January 2006 to December 2010. The result shows that in the long-term, all selectedmacroeconomic variables except Dow Jones Index variable have significantly affect in both Islamic stock market FHSI and JII, while in the short-term there is no any selected macroeconomic variables that significantly affect FHSI and only inflation, exchange rate and crude oil price variables seem to significantly affect JII. Keywords : Islamic Stock Market, Jakarta Islamic Index, FTSE Hijrah Shariah Index, VAR/VECMJEL Classification: E52, E44
KOMPETISI INDUSTRI PERBANKAN INDONESIA
Authors: Widyastuti Ratna Sri , Armanto Boedi
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the competition level of banking industry, prior and after the introduction of Indonesian Banking Architecture (API). Using panel data, the result shows the competition of banking decreased after the introduction of API, with large tendency to monopoly or collusive olligopoly. For the bank with niche market such as regional bank and mix bank, the introduction of API did not affect much, while the competition level for foreign bank is the lowest one. Non price variable would be the main determinant on banking competition in the future, including number of branches, wage and credit volume. Keywords: banking competition, market structure, Indonesian Banking Architecture (API).JEL Classification: C23, D40, E44, E58, G21, L11
THE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE REGIONAL CHARACTERISTICS: THE CASE OF INDONESIA
Authors: Supartoyo Yesi Hendriani , Tatuh Jen , Sendouw Recky H. E.
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzed the regional characteristic and the output growth. Using panel data analysis on 33 provinces in Indonesia, the result shows that the labor growth and net export positively affect the output growth. Surprisingly, the inflation and human capital were found to be insignificant on output growth. Keyword : economic growth, panel data, regional characteristicsJEL Classification: O47, C23, R11
THE DYNAMICS OF INDONESIA INFLATION: WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM INFLATION DISAGGREGATION?
Authors: Kusuma IGP Wira
Published: January 2017

This paper employs disaggregated data of inflation combined with Factor Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR) to explore the price behaviour in Indonesia. The main finding of this analysis is that price behaviour in Indonesia exhibits heterogeneity. It is evident not only in terms of the magnitude, but also in the direction and the speed of adjustment to the new equilibrium in response to interest rate shock. Price volatility is mainly related to sector specific shocks instead of macroeconomic shocks. Another finding is, the price puzzle weakens once ITF is adopted. Keywords: price disaggregation, inflation, FAVAR, price puzzle.JEL classification: C32, E31, E52
MODEL KEBIJAKAN MONETER DALAM PEREKONOMIAN TERBUKA UNTUK INDONESIA
Authors: Juoro Umar
Published: January 2017

This paper analyze the impact of foreign policy (the Fed) on Indonesia’s monetary economy, focusing on the attention is also to the fund rate. An empirical model of VAR (Vector Auto Regression) is developed to capture the impact of increase in fund rate to Indonesia’s monetary sector. The system of equations covers central bank policy rate, lending rate, inflation, real effective rate (REER), and the output growth. The result shows that the increase of fund rate tended to push Bank Indonesia to increase his policy rate, hence the lending rate. On the other side, positive shock of foreign fund rate lower inflation and output growth, and appreciate the Real Effective Exchange Rate with lag. Keyword: monetary policy, lending rate, inflation, exchange rate.JEL Classification: E52, F41
ANALISIS TRIWULAN II - 2013
Authors: BI Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan
Published: January 2017

Perekonomian nasional menunjukkan pertumbuhan yang lebih rendah dari triwulan I 2013 sebagai dampak dari perlambatan ekonomi global dan kenaikan inflasi di dalam negeri. Setelah mencatat pertumbuhan 6,0% (yoy) pada triwulan I 2013, ekonomi Indonesia tumbuh melambat menjadi 5,8% (yoy) pada triwulan II-2013. Ekspor, meskipun telah tumbuh positif, masih belum cukup kuat menopang pertumbuhan ekonomi akibat masih lemahnya permintaan ekonomi global. Ekspor yang belum kuat serta melemahnya daya beli akibat inflasi yang meningkat berpengaruh kepada perlambatan konsumsi rumah tangga dan juga investasi non-bangunan.....
QUARTERLY ANALYSIS: THE DYNAMICS OF MONETARY, BANKING AND PAYMENT SYSTEM, QUARTERLY II, 2013
Authors: Quarterly Report Team Bank Indonesia
Published: January 2017

The national economy showed lower growth than the first quarter of 2013 due to the impact of the global economic slowdown and rising inflation in the country. After registering a growth of 6.0% (yoy) in the first quarter of 2013, Indonesia’s economic growth slowed to 5.8% (yoy) in the second quarter of 2013. Despite positive growth, exports are still not strong enough to support economic growth as a result of the weakening global economic demand. Exports are not strong and the weakening purchasing power due to inflation has increasing influence to slowdown household consumption as well as non-construction investment.
The Economic Growth and the Regional Characteristics : The Case of Indonesia
Authors: Supartoyo Yesi Hendriani , Tatuh Jen , Sendouw Recky H. E.
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzed the regional characteristic and the output growth. Using panel data analysis on 33 provinces in Indonesia, the result shows that the labor growth and net export positively affect the output growth. Surprisingly, the inflation and human capital were found to be insignificant on output growth. Keyword : economic growth, panel data, regional characteristicsJEL Classification: O47, C23, R11
THE IMPORT RESTRICTION OF HORTICULTURAL PRODUCT, DOMESTIC ACTIVITIES, PRICE LEVEL, AND THE WELFARE
Authors: Winardi Wisnu
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the impact of entry ports reduction on horticultural production on the economic activities, prices and also toward social welfare by using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The simulation shows higher import restriction on horticultural products will not only increase the factor income (at current value), but will also increase the composite prices. The higher effect of the latter leads to social welfare reduction, but on the other hand favors the agriculture household types. This finding shows import restriction on horticulture product serves as income redistribution policy instrument. With regard to this, the monetary authority should take the issue into account, especially in order to anticipate the effect of composite prices increase, which could lead to the need of extra efforts in managing price stability. Keywords: import reduction; prices, inflation, CGE; social welfare; income distribution.JEL Classification: E25, E27
The Dynamics of Indonesian Inflation: What can We Learn from Inflation Disaggregation?
Authors: Kusuma IGP Wira
Published: January 2017

This paper employs disaggregated data of inflation combined with Factor Augmented Vector Auto Regression (FAVAR) to explore the price behaviour in Indonesia. The main finding of this analysis is that price behaviour in Indonesia exhibits heterogeneity. It is evident not only in terms of the magnitude, but also in the direction and the speed of adjustment to the new equilibrium in response to interest rate shock. Price volatility is mainly related to sector specific shocks instead of macroeconomic shocks. Another finding is, the price puzzle weakens once ITF is adopted. Keywords: price disaggregation, inflation, FAVAR, price puzzle.JEL classification: C32, E31, E52
Monetary Policy Model for Open Economy of Indonesia
Authors: Juoro Umar
Published: January 2017

This paper explains stylized facts about the monetary economy in Indonesia covering the Bank Indonesia (BI) policy on the exchange rate, lending rates, inflation, real effective rate (REER), and growth. This is done to get an understanding on the impact of foreign policy (influenced by the Fed) on Indonesia’s monetary economy, with some attention to the fund rate. An empirical model of VAR (Vector Auto Regression) was developed to capture the impact of an increase in fund rate to Indonesia’s monetary sector. Furthermore, a theoretical model was developed to capture the result from empirical model. The theoretical model shows that the increase of fund rate influenced the increase of BI rate, lending rate, inflation, while reducing REER and growth. Keyword: monetary policy, lending rate, inflation, exchange rate.JEL Classification: E52, F41
MENGUKUR RISIKO SISTEMIK DAN KETERKAITAN FINANSIAL PERBANKAN DI INDONESIA
Authors: Ayomi Sri , Hermanto Bambang
Published: January 2017

This paper measures the insolvency risk of bank in Indonesia. We apply Merton model to identify the probability of defaul tover 30 banks during the period of 2002-2013. This paper also identify role of financial linkage a cross banks on transmitting from one bank to another; which enable us to assess if the risk is systemic or not. The results showed the larger total asset of the bank, the larger they contribute to systemic risk. Keywords : Conditional Value at Risk; Probability of Default; systemic risk and financial linkages;Value at Risk. JEL Classification: D81, G21, G33
DECEBTRALIZATION AND REGIONAL INFLATION IN INDONESIA
Authors: Tirtosuharto Darius , Adiwilaga Handri
Published: January 2017

The link between decentralization and inflation as one of the key aspects of macro economic stability has been surveyed by a number of studies and the findings are generally inconclusive. Using sample data of developing and developed countries, previous study found that decentralization correlates with lower inflation in developed countries and vice versa, it correlates with higher inflation in developing countries. The key question is what factors play a role in controlling inflation in a decentralized system. This paper is to argue that the coordination problem is the main issue in controlling inflation in a decentralized system, particularly in developing countries. The empirical analysis is to determine the effect of decentralization on regional inflation in Indonesia and whether institutions play a role in the recent downward trend of inflation in Indonesia. A panel data that includes 33 observations of the Indonesian regions (provinces) is constructed with a dummy variable representing the existence of institution. In addition, this study analyzes whether decentralization supports the convergence in regional inflation and also the pattern of spatial correlation in regional inflation. The assumption is that there are some degrees of collective institutional coordination and cooperation with the establishment of Regional Inflation Task Force (RITF). Keywords : Decentralization, Regional Inflation Convergence, Regional InstitutionJEL Classification: E31, H73, R12
EFISIENSI BANK UMUM SYARIAH MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN TWO-STAGE DATA ENVELOPMENT ANALYSIS
Authors: Firdaus Muhammad faza , Hosen Muhamad Nadratuzzaman
Published: January 2017

The aim of this study is to measure the efficiency of Islamic Bank in Indonesia, to analyze the factors that affect the level of efficiency which is known as Two-Stage Data Envelopment Analysis method and to propose measurement of Bank Soundness with modified CAMELS. The objects of this study are 10 (ten) Islamic Bank (BUS) in Indonesia which analyzes from the second Quarter of 2010 until the fourth Quarter of 2012. There are 2 (two) methods which are used in this study, namely non-parametric method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) on the first stage and Tobit model on the second stage. In addition, this study will illustrate the formulation of the financial factors of CAELS instead of CAMEL by integrating the results of efficiency level measurement using DEA in CAELS formulation. Overall, the results, show that the efficiency level of Islamic banks in Indonesia during the time period in this study, have not yet reach the optimum level of efficiency. In addition, modification of CAELS for the bank performance level method by integrating the result of DEA shows that the modification of CAELS could be more accurate in describing the bank performance level, particularly for Islamic Bank in Indonesia. Keywords: Efficiency, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Tobit Model, CAELS + DEAJEL Classification: C02, C14, C54,G21
ANALISIS TRIWULAN III - 2013
Authors: BI Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan
Published: January 2017

Pertumbuhan ekonomi triwulan III 2013 melambat sesuai dengan prakiraan sebelumnya. Perekonomian Indonesia pada triwulan III 2013 tumbuh 5,6% (yoy), lebih lambat dibandingkan dengan triwulan II 2013 sebesar 5,8% (yoy). Perlambatan ekonomi terutama tercatat pada sisi investasi dengan menurunnya investasi bangunan dan rendahnya pertumbuhan investasi non bangunan. Kinerja ekspor secara riil mengalami perbaikan meskipun diikuti dengan impor total yang meningkat. Sementara itu, konsumsi baik konsumsi rumah tangga maupun konsumsi pemerintah menunjukkan peningkatan....