An economic analysis of potential water resource development for agriculture in the Blackwater-Lamine River Basin, Missouri
Authors:   , Raitt Daryll R. 
Published: May 2024

This study estimates the potential future agricultural benefits of flood control and drainage development in the Blackwater-Lamine River Basin, Missouri. A linear programming model was used to derive solutions for three future demand-supply conditions and three levels of flood control and drainage. Output from the model included land use, total agricultural production, cost of production, gross income, net income and annual sheet erosion. Results indicate that the rate of adoption of technology and land use shifts will be the most important factors in expanding future output of agricultural products because these factors apply to the entire land base. The adoption of more efficient technology alone could increase agricultural output by 23 percent and net income by 42 percent by the year 2000. A combination of adopting more efficient technology and limited land use shifts could result in increasing agricultural output by 69 percent and net income by 93 percent by the year 2000. Benefits to flood control and drainage were estimated by computing the difference in net income "without development" and "with development" for each level of resource development. Although benefits to resource development vary somewhat depending on which of the three models are used, far greater variation occurs when inconsistent assumptions regarding demand levels and supply response are introduced. For example, if constant land use is assumed "without" development and the minimum cost model is assumed "with" development benefits could be over-estimated by more than four million dollars. The results of this study indicate that while there is justification for including benefits to some shifts in land use in response to flood control, these benefits will ordinarily be of a small magnitude. Of more importance in determining future land use is the demand for farm products and supply response adjustments made by farmers to the demand. Agricultural output and income can be increased significantly but not without environmental consequences. Increasing output and income would involve shifting land to high value tilled crops which would result in less habitat for wildlife, higher use of chemicals for weed and pest control, and higher erosion rates all of which will adversely affect the environment. Gross erosion is directly related to agricultural output with the marginal rate of erosion increasing with additional agricultural output. Flood control and drainage development alone would not affect erosion significantly. Results of the study indicate that the economic incentives for clearing forested bottomland and converting it to cropland will be high regardless of whether or not flood control and drainage development occurs. Flood control and drainage development will undoubtedly increase the incentives for clearing bottomland forest areas. Therefore, if a major environmental goal is to retain selected forested bottomland areas for environmental and recreational purposes, the rights to these forested tracts must be acquired by the public.