Ranking the risk of animal-to-human spillover for newly discovered viruses
Authors: Grange Zoë L. , Goldstein Tracey , Johnson Christine K. , Anthony Simon , Gilardi Kirsten , Daszak Peter , Olival Kevin J. , O’Rourke Tammie , Murray Suzan , Olson Sarah H. , Togami Eri , Vidal Gema ,   Expert Panel,   PREDICT Consortium, Mazet Jonna A. K. , Anderson Kevin , Auewarakul Prasert , Coffey Lark , Corley Ronald , Dauphin Gwenaelle , Epstein Jonathan , Fukuda Keiji , Goodman Simon , Han Barbara , Hughes James , Jeggo Martin , Karesh William , Kazwala Rudovick , Kelly Terra , Keusch Gerald , Kurilla Micheal , Mackenzie John , Markotter Wanda , Monagin Corina , Morens David , Munster Vincent , Muhlberger Elke , Pandit Pranav , Peel Alison , Pfeiffer Dirk , Restif Olivier , Tomori Oyewale , Towner Jonathan , Van Der Werf Sylvie , VonDobschetz Sophie , Wacharapluesadee Supaporn , Ward Micheal , Weirsma Lidewij , Wilson Mary , Wolking David , Wongsathapornchai Kachen , Brierley Liam ,   University of Edinburgh Epigroup members, Tambrana-Torellio Carlos ,   those who wish to remain anonymous, Islam Arif , Islam Shariful , Raman Zia , Hul Vibol , Duong Veasna , Mouiche Moctar , Nwobegahay Julius , Coulibaly Kalpy , Kumakamba Charles , Syaluha Eddy Kambale , Lukusa Jean-Paul , Belay Desalegn , Kebede Nigatu , Ampofo William , Bel-Nono Sammuel , Suu-Ire Richard , Douokoro Kalivogui , Dursman Huda , Pamungkas Imung , Rachmitasari Novie , Saputro Suryo , Damanik Wirda , Kusumaningrum Tina , Rambitan Maya , Rey Beounly , Safari Dodi , Soebandrio Amin , Triastuti Juliana , Abu-Basha Ehab , Allan Kwallah , Joseph Kamau , Samson Mutura , Khamphaphonphane Bouaphanh , Theppanga Watthana , Desmond Jim , Samules Sandra , Lee Mei Ho , Lee Jimmy , Damdinjav Batchuluun , Shiilegdamba Enkhtuvshin , Aung Ohnmar , Bista Manisha , Karmacharya Dibesh , Shrestha Rima , Nziza Julius , Tumushime Jean-Claude , Lo Modou Moustapha , Ndiaye Amadou , Seck Mame Cheikh , Bangura James , Lavalie Edwin , Mwangoka Grace , Sijali Zikankuba , Okello Ricky Okwir , Ssebide Benard , Wacharpluesadee Supaporn , Nguyen Nga , Epstein Jon , Hagan Emily , Karesh William , Latinne Alice , Laudisoit Anne , Li Hongying , Machalaba Catherine , Martinez Stephanie , Ross Noam , Sullivan Ava , Torrelio Carlos Zambrana , Mackenzie John , Waldman Ron , Morzaria Subash , Kalpravidh Wantanee , Makonnen Yilma , Von Dubscheutz Sophie , Claes Filip , Pelican Katie , Behravesh Casie Barton , Mumford Elizabeth , Clark John Paul , Vu Trong Duoc , Saylors Karen , Edison Bethany , Euren Jason , Gillis Amethyst , Lange Christian , LeBreton Mat , McIver David , O’Rourke Daniel , Valitutto Marc , Zimmerman Dawn , Belkhiria Jaber , Bird Brian , Chale Hannah , Preston Eunah , Gardner Nicole , Genovese Brooke , Gonzalez Kevin , Keatts Lucy , Kelly Terra , Leasure Elizabeth , Monagin Corina , Pandit Pranav , Randhawa Nistara , Smith Brett , Smith Woutrina , Tremeau-Bravard Alex , Wolking David , Churchill Carolina , Olson Sarah , Walzer Chris , Fine Amanda 
Published: April 2021

Significance

The recent emergence and spread of zoonotic viruses, including Ebola virus and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, demonstrate that animal-sourced viruses are a very real threat to global public health. Virus discovery efforts have detected hundreds of new animal viruses with unknown zoonotic risk. We developed an open-source risk assessment to systematically evaluate novel wildlife-origin viruses in terms of their zoonotic spillover and spread potential. Our tool will help scientists and governments assess and communicate risk, informing national disease prioritization, prevention, and control actions. The resulting watchlist of potential pathogens will identify targets for new virus countermeasure initiatives, which can reduce the economic and health impacts of emerging diseases.