Ključni čimbenici iseljavanja iz Hrvatske i ostanka u iseljeništvu prema percepciji iseljenika
Authors:   Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies, Zagreb, Croatia, Ružić Natasha K. , Jurčević Katica ,   Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies, Zagreb, Croatia, Ramljak Ozana ,   Sveučilište VERN, Luchetti María Florencia ,   Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies, Zagreb, Croatia
Published: December 2023

Croatia has been facing a population decline, mainly due to a low birth rate and the emigration of young and qualified workers. Considering the historical and dynamic aspects of emigration (Draženović, Kunovac and Pripužić, 2018), leading to depopulation, it is necessary to investigate all contributing factors in Croatia and explore potential models and measures to mitigate these unfavourable processes. Apart from Germany, Croatian citizens have emigrated mostly to Ireland and Austria since the country acceded to the EU (Pokos, 2017). Research confirms that the number of Croatian citizens who immigrated to Germany, Ireland and Austria in 2016 was, on average, 62% higher than the official data reported by the Republic of Croatia (Jerić, 2019). The increasingly intensive emigration of the young and able-bodied population additionally contributes to a rapidly ageing population, exerting strong pressure on the sustainability of the pension system (Družić, Beg and Raguž Krištić, 2016) and underscores the importance of investigating the reasons for emigration and the factors essential for return. Migration is also an important area of interest for the European Union due to its exceptional impact on all aspects of society. Increased opportunities for mobility, advances in technology that provide access to information sources, and societal changes strongly suggest the need for policymakers to examine the micro, meso, and macro drivers that influence migration or potentially influence a person's decision not to migrate or remigrate. Governments require migration analysis to create informed migration policies, including citizen participation in the policy development process. The perspectives of migrants and their behaviour should be taken into account when creating policies to better understand the key success factors needed for the desired outcomes of migrants (European Commission, 2020). According to Fargues (2017), migration is a complex process that is constantly changing as a result of various local, international, and global situations, highlighting the need for con¬tinual investigation and repeated surveying of the population. Within the current demographic climate, the World Youth Alliance Croatia (SSMH) launched the project “Network 2050 – Demography, From Challenges to Answers”, co-financed by the European Social Fund. The project is based on intersectoral cooperation, identified as necessary for improving collaborative efforts to address the effects of negative demographic trends on the social and economic development of Croatia and develop measures for demographic revitalisation. This paper will present the data and analysis of the empirical results of the research conducted by the Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies. The study focuses on emigrants' opinions and perspectives regarding the factors that influenced their decision to migrate. This includes their own perceptions of the situation in Croatia, as well as abroad in their host country, which played a role in their decision-making process and continues to potentially impact them. Additionally, the paper explores the emigrants’ perception of their current life circumstances. The target group comprised Croats currently living as expatriates in European countries. A total of 497 respondents, Croats currently living abroad, most of whom left Croatia between 2016 and 2021, took part in the survey. Three main research questions guided the investigation: 1) What are the key drivers of migration at the micro, meso, and macro levels that influence the decision to emigrate or stay, according to the perception of emigrants from Croatia?; 2) What factors influence the decision of Croats to stay abroad?; and, 3) What are the key factors that influence the decision to return to Croatia? For the purposes of this paper, the general results related to research questions 1 and 2 will be presented. The instrument used for data collection was an online questionnaire that respondents filled out independently. The questionnaire consisted of 62 questions, mostly closed-ended, with only a few open-ended questions to accommodate additional information if participants chose to elaborate on their perceptions. Including this option also allowed for the possibility of results that were not expected by the research team. The questions were divided into five thematic chapters: sociodemographic data, migration status, socioeconomic status, returnee motivational status, and identity and value system. The questionnaire was administered with special attention to the time of completion, clarity, and appropriateness of the questions. The data collection process included advertising the research project and posting calls for participation on various social media networks across platforms managed by members of various Croatian dias¬pora groups. Additionally, advertising was conducted through social groups and institutions, as well as using the snowball method. Data was collected during the period from July to October 2021. At the beginning, the purpose of the questionnaire was explained, and respondents were informed that their participation was voluntary with the possibility to withdraw at any time. Consistency in the questionnaire administration was achieved by exclusively offering it online. A total of 500 responses were received, of which 497 were valid, while three questionnaires were partially filled. Only key socio-demographic information was collected and, together with the respondents' personal perceptions, it was examined in relation to the key drivers of emigration. Their perception is the key feedback that can help state authorities and policymakers in designing measures aimed at retaining the population and attract¬ing potential returnees. Their perception was viewed as potentially showing indica¬tors of migration drivers, push and pull factors, as well as demonstrating public perception around key issues and policies, and the type of information (including its accuracy) used to inform migration. Respecting the perception of the general public when creating policies is in line with the concepts promoted by the EU Parliament (2020), which encourages the participation of citizens in decision-making. According to the obtained sociodemographic data, 208 respondents (41.9%) were female, and 289 respondents (58.1%) were male. The most represented age category (39%) was 30–39 years old. Additionally, 24% of respondents were between 40 and 49 years old, 22% were between 18 and 29 years old 9.5 % were between 50 and 59 years old, 3.2% were 60–69 years old and 2% were between 70 and 81 years old. This indicates that the majority of respondents who leave are younger than 40, i.e. in the reproductive age group. The results obtained support the relevance of the research by Družić, Beg and Raguž Krištić (2016), who warn about the loss of the young population in Croatia, which results in population ageing. The majority (78.3%) were born in Croatia, and the next significant group (13.1%) was born in Bosnia and Herzego¬vina. The largest group of respondents, at the time of the questionnaire, lived in Germany, followed by the numerically significant groups in Great Britain, Ireland and Sweden. The trend shown by the majority of respondents coming from Germany is in line with the large wave of migration to Germany since 2013 when Croatia entered the EU, and since July 2015 when the labour market in Germany was opened to Croatia. Jurić (2022) and Pokos (2017) describe Germany as still the most desirable country for Croatian emigration. The results showed that macro-level factors related to working conditions and employment rates influence micro-level factors, such as socioeconomic status. Work opportunities and the working environment were perceived as somewhat important because respondents believe that these aspects affect their personal quality of life. An interesting result is that the number of respondents who stated that they were married or in a partnership doubled after moving. It is worth mentioning that Jang, Cast¬erline and Snyder (2014) warn that the longer the time spent abroad, the stronger the ties made, potentially leading to the establishment of family life connected to the host country. This could negatively affect the potential decision to return. The influence of this factor at the micro level requires further research to show the possible impact of marriages abroad on the mobility of new families and their possible return to Croatia, especially if Croatia's goal is to encourage the return of its emigrants. The results of this study, as well as the recommendations of researchers such as Kis, Ozdemir and Ward (2015) on the importance of improving working conditions and wages as a means of improving living conditions, are useful for formulating strategies for population retention. Additionally, certain political restrictions can negatively affect the achievement of the country's migration goals (Boswell, 2002), which, in the case of Croatia, involves return migration and population retention.