bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
KARAKTERISTIK GELOMBANG SIGNIFIKAN DI SELAT KARIMATA DAN LAUT JAWA BERDASARKAN RERATA ANGIN 9 TAHUNAN (2005-2013)
Authors: Wicaksana Sigit , Sofian Ibnu , Pranowo Widodo
Published: January 2017

Karimata strait and the java sea is one of the most densely shipping lanes in the maritime country of Indonesia. Information of a significant wave is needed to safety navigation. The prediction of a significant wave mostly employs the modeling using wind as input data to produce an early warning warning prediction. Characteristic of a significant wave shows the maximum wave height in the strait and the java sea karimata occurs in west monsoon (January) and east season (August) every year. Especially at the peak of west monsoon (January) maximum wave height reach 1.5-3 meters in Karimata Strait, and reach 0.5-2.5 meters in Java Sea. The frequency of significant wave occurences mostly extend until February, where wave height in Java Sea will stay the same (0.5-2.5 meters), while in Karimata Strait is little bit decrease (1-2.5 meters). Recommended to all sea transportation users, in those regions during January and February, to avoid using ship with the hull is less than 3 meters height.Keywords: significant wave characteristic, Karimata Strait, Jawa Sea, Wind, Modeling
Penggunaan Keong Bakau Telescopium sp (Gastropoda: Potamididae) dan Siput Bakau Cerithidea sp (Gastropoda: Potamididae) Sebagai Biofilter terhadap Limbah Budidaya Ikan Bandeng (Chanos chanos)
Authors: Khalil Munawar , Ezraneti Riri , Jannatiah Jannatiah , Hajar Siti
Published: January 2017

Mangrove snail Telescopium sp and Cerithidea sp are natural biofilter that able used to manage the changes in water quality caused by the culture sewage. This research aimed to analyze the utilization of Telescopium sp and Cerithidea sp as natural biofilter for re-improving water quality level from culture sewage in the laboratory scale. The outcome of this study was expected to be valuable information that mangrove gastropods not only as pests in mariculture ponds, but also able to use as natural biofilter in pond sewage management for recovering water quality level. This research was conducted from April to July 2016 in Hatchery and Aquaculture Technology Laboratory, Aquaculture Department, Agriculture Faculty, Malikussaleh University. Descriptive and quantitative methods used in this research including two treatment and three replications. Water quality such as turbidity, temperature, ammonia, nitrate, nitrite, orthophosphate, pH and dissolved oxygen measured periodically as research parameters. The result showed that the utilization of mangrove gastropod Telescopium sp and Cerithidea sp as natural biofilter was able to re-improving the water quality value such as pH, ammonia, nitrat, nitrit, orthophosphate and turbidity to the normal level. Meanwhile, the utilization of mangrove gastropods as natural biofilter does not gave any significant changes in the value of temperature, salinity and dissolved oxygen. Cerithidea sp also has better performance to reduce the water nutrient level in culture sewage compared than Telescopium sp. Keyword: mangrove gastropod, biofiltration, water quality, culture sewage
Pilot Tests of New Enhanced-Oil-Recovery Technologies for Heavy-Oil Reservoirs
Authors: Wilson Adam
Published: January 2017

This article, written by Special Publications Editor Adam Wilson, contains highlights of paper SPE 176703, “Pilot Tests of New EOR Technologies for Heavy-Oil Reservoirs,” by L.K. Altunina, V.A. Kuvshinov, and I.V. Kuvshinov, Institute of Petroleum Chemistry, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences; and M.V. Chertenkov, SPE, and S.O. Ursegov, Lukoil, prepared for the 2015 SPE Russian Petroleum Technology Conference, Moscow, 26-28 October. The paper has not been peer reviewed.

Thermal steam stimulation (TSS) is considered the most effective of current methods for heavy-oil production. However, the method has problems with low coverage by steam injection and decreased efficiency at later stages of development. This paper presents the results of solving these problems by combining thermal steam and physicochemical stimulations and using “cold” technologies involving thermotropic gel-forming and oil-displacing systems.

Introduction

In Russia, the amount of oil reserves considered difficult to recover is constantly increasing. Active reserves account for one-third of all prospected reserves, and the difficult-to-recover oil reserves account for 67%. High-viscosity oils are 13% of the difficult-to-recover oils, and low-permeability formations account for 36%. The amount of heavy and high-viscosity oil is several times greater than the amount of light and low-viscosity oil. Therefore, the development of the deposits of heavy and high-viscosity oils is given more attention. To develop heavy- and high-viscosity-oil reservoirs effectively and increase oil production, new, integrated enhanced-oil-recovery (EOR) technologies are necessary. The new technologies addressed here combine basic reservoir stimulation by water or steam injection and physicochemical methods, increasing reservoir coverage and oil-displacement factors and improving the development.

In recent years, thermal methods—oil displacement with steam, cyclic steam injection, and steam-assisted gravity drainage— have been the most widespread EOR methods used in heavy-oil fields. One can improve the efficiency of steam stimulation by combining it with physicochemical methods—in particular, using thermotropic gel-forming and oil- displacing systems—thereby increasing the reservoir coverage by steam injection and providing additional oil displacement.

Integrating Physicochemical Methods and TSS

This approach uses the concept that reservoir energy or energy from an injected heat carrier can generate in-situ “intelligent” chemical systems (i.e., gels, sols, surfactant solutions, and buffer systems with controlled alkalinity). These systems remain for a long time and are self-supporting in reservoirs with complex properties, making them optimal for oil displacement.
Near-Surface Velocity Model To Enhance PSDM Seismic Imaging of Dukhan Field
Authors: Wilson Adam
Published: January 2017

This article, written by Special Publications Editor Adam Wilson, contains highlights of paper IPTC 18293, “Near-Surface Velocity Model of Dukhan Field From Multiphysics Survey To Enhance PSDM Seismic Imaging,” by K. Setiyono, Qatar Petroleum; S. Gallo, C. Boulanger, F. Bruere, F. Moreau, and B. Rondeleux, CGG; and J. Snow, Qatar Petroleum, prepared for the 2015 International Petroleum Technology Conference, Doha, Qatar, 7-9 December. The paper has not been peer reviewed.

Dukhan field affords an opportunity to assess alternative near-surface velocity-modeling work flows that specifically integrate microgravity (MGR) and vertical electrical sounding (VES). A pilot study of the Dukhan seismic data demonstrates that integration of MGR/VES into prestack depth migration (PSDM) improves the fidelity of seismic images and results in an improved depth match. The resultant MGR/VES PSDM pilot model improved the velocity model between the surface and top Simsima formation on the basis of visible impact on the deeper structure obtained from imaging and better fit between the seismic depth horizons and well measured depths.

Introduction

The Dukhan field (Fig. 1) along the southwest coast of Qatar is an elongated anticline that has significant hydrocarbon reservoirs in the Jurassic Arab and deeper formations. In 2007, Qatar Petroleum invested in a new full-field, land and shallow-water 3D-seismic survey of the area.

Despite considerable and continuous progress in seismic technology, obtaining an accurate, quantitative, well-focused seismic depth image at reservoir level remains challenging. In land seismic, a poor characterization of the near-surface geology is detrimental to the depth imaging of underlying structures. The proper knowledge of the near surface to correct for its perturbations onto the seismic wavefield remains one of the main challenges to be addressed. The near surface influences the kinematics as well as the dynamics of the source-generated seismic waves. Knowledge of the near surface to correct for its induced distortions is critical for a reliable use of seismic images, structures, and amplitude at reservoir level. The near-surface lateral and vertical velocity variations often are not accessible with seismic methods, even to the seismic refraction survey, because their depth of investigation is limited to the top of the shallowest hard layer. In addition, rapid lateral changes and large velocity contrasts are unfavorable to seismic refraction.
Broadband Seismic Acquisition: Implications for Interpretation and Reservoir Models
Authors: Wilson Adam
Published: January 2017

This article, written by Special Publications Editor Adam Wilson, contains highlights of paper IPTC 18075, “The Impact of Broadband Seismic Acquisition and Implications for Interpretation and Reservoir-Model Building,” by Carter Gehman and Andrew Spedding, Hess, prepared for the 2014 International Petroleum Technology Conference, Kuala Lumpur, 10–12 December. The paper has not been peer reviewed.

This paper addresses the impact of acquiring a new 3D broadband seismic survey over an amplitude-supported, discovered gas field containing legacy 3D conventional towed-streamer seismic data. The new seismic data were acquired in shallow water depths by use of a dual-level streamer technique and were processed through prestack depth migration (PSDM). Five gas discovery/ appraisal wells existed before broadband acquisition, and two wells were drilled after acquisition was completed. These seven wells serve as control points that provide a valuable link between the seismic and reservoir properties.

Introduction and Background

Seismic imaging of hydrocarbon reservoirs with small impedance contrasts relative to bounding lithologies is challenging. Ideally, an infinite bandwidth wavelet would detect and resolve subsurface geology as observed in the resolution of a typical wireline log. Improvements in seismic acquisition and processing continue to strive toward this ideal condition, and recent advancements in seismic acquisition— namely, the broadband acquisition technique—have attempted an approximation of the infinite bandwidth wavelet through the removal of the receiver or source ghosts. This advancement is of particular interest in oil and gas development areas where known thin or poor-quality reservoirs that are difficult to detect on conventional seismic records have been penetrated by previous wells.

The study area is located in the shallow (less than 200 ft) waters off peninsular Malaysia. Seven exploration and appraisal wells have targeted shallow and deep reservoirs, although only three wells have been drilled to deep targets. Generally speaking, seismic imaging of shallow reservoirs is good, while deep targets are more challenging to image.

The primary motivation for acquiring a new broadband seismic survey stemmed from imaging difficulties of thin (less than 15 ft) deep gas reservoirs on conventional seismic data. Many of these reservoirs are vertically juxtaposed by coals, which tend to mask the acoustic response of the reservoir. Even after later reprocessing of legacy data through anisotropic PSDM, imaging difficulties remained.
Guest Editorial: Changing How We Manage HSE: Getting to Zero
Authors: Hinton Jack
Published: January 2017

Guest editorial

For the more than 7 billion people on our planet, every measure of quality of life, from gross domestic product per capita and infant mortality, to education levels and access to clean water, is correlated to the consumption of modern fuels, including oil and gas. Now more than ever, our industry faces imperatives: delivering affordable energy more safely, economically, and sustainably—that is, in a way that responsibly meets the needs of today’s populations without jeopardizing the Earth or its future populations. Sustainability will depend on continuing to close gaps, not only in technology, but also in health, safety, and environmental (HSE) performance, to eradicate HSE incidents from our operations. The expectation is a future with an incident-free workplace and where everyone returns home safely each day. Closing the HSE gap will require major shifts in cultural, organizational, and human performance paradigms.

Changing the Culture

For years, HSE was seen as a regulatory obligation to meet government requirements. It was governed by, and managed in reaction to, rules and regulations. Control and discipline were prevalent. An incident-free workplace was generally not considered possible, and when it was considered, it was only as a vision, at best.

Over time, industry HSE culture began to shift from dependent to independent as the process and complexity of operations became better understood, and commitment to safety became more personal and individual. An incident-free workplace began to be seen as a possibility, but still as a target to achieve rather than a realistic goal.

A further evolution from an independent to an interdependent safety culture took place over the first decade of the 21st century, with a stronger focus on cooperation within and across teams. Employees and well and asset team members began to see themselves as their peers’ keepers. HSE became recognized as “the right thing to do” for two very important reasons.

1. It is part of our moral and ethical responsibility to our employees, customers, contractors, and the communities in which we work, and to the future of our planet.

2. It is good for business. There is no downside to good HSE practices. Conversely, the cost of poor practices can drive companies out of business.
Bayesian-Style History Matching: Another Way To Underestimate Forecast Uncertainty?
Authors: Carpenter Chris
Published: January 2017

This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper SPE 175121, “Bayesian-Style History Matching: Another Way To Underestimate Forecast Uncertainty?” by Jeroen C. Vink, Guohua Gao, and Chaohui Chen, Shell, prepared for the 2015 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Houston, 28–30 September. The paper has not been peer reviewed.

Current theoretical formulations of assisted-history-matching (AHM) problems within the Bayesian framework [e.g., ensemble-Kalmanfilter (EnKF) and randomized-maximum- likelihood (RML) problems] are typically based on the assumption that simulation models can reproduce field data accurately within the measurement error. However, this assumption does not hold for AHM problems of real assets. This paper critically investigates the impact of using realistic, inaccurate simulation models. In particular, it demonstrates the risk of underestimating uncertainty when conditioning real-life models to large numbers of field data.

Introduction

Improved simulation and history-matching techniques have still not cured the chronic ailment of systematically underestimating uncertainty in forecast results. This is because it is very easy to forget or ignore uncertain factors or model assumptions; also, the method used to constrain a model to historical data may excessively reduce uncertainties.

In this paper, the authors highlight the fact that stochastic, Bayesian-style history-matching methods can very easily lead to unrealistically reduced uncertainty ranges in forecast results. The complete paper discusses Bayesian-style history matching and uncertainty quantification in detail.

Large-Data Danger

Stochastic history matching has two contrasting stages. First, one identifies a large number of uncertain model parameters in order to be confident that future field-production results will be contained within the range of forecast results associated with the prior model uncertainty. Second, when actual field data have become available, one uses large quantities of data to reduce this prior uncertainty. The reservoir engineer must decide not only which model parameters and field data to use, but also how many. The effect of increasing the number of uncertain model parameters is intuitively clear: Every parameter that has an impact on a specific forecast result will add to the uncertainty of this result.
Guest Editorial: Creating Value From Flared Natural Gas
Authors: Layfield Martin
Published: January 2017

Guest editorial

Approximately 5% of world annual gas production is being flared or vented. This is equivalent to approximately 110–140 billion m3 (Bcm) of gas, and equates to the combined gas consumption of Central and South America in 2013.

The World Bank estimates that flaring 140 Bcm would cause more than 350 million tonnes of CO2 release into the atmosphere. If this could be harnessed for power, for example, it could produce 750 billion kW-hr/year, more than Africa’s entire annual consumption.

Capturing the flared or vented gas presents an opportunity for operators to reduce the environmental impact as well as provide an economic opportunity to generate an additional revenue stream. The World Bank’s “Zero Routine Flaring by 2030” initiative is calling on governments and companies to achieve this target within the next 15 years. To address both the need to end routine gas flaring and tackle climate change concerns, DNV GL has conducted research titled “Natural Gas Capture - Clean and Economic,” which examines the viability of alternative solutions and their revenue potential.

The conceptual study looked at four existing oil and gas facilities, onshore in North Dakota, Algeria, and Russia, and offshore Vietnam, which provided a variety of volumes and rates of gas being flared. This enabled the modeling of a range of diverse technologies on real locations and field conditions as most flaring occurs at either aging and/ or remote locations.

Understanding the Challenges

A number of factors can affect the drive and desire to undertake a reduction in gas flaring. Existing solutions are mature for large-scale applications, but fewer technologies have been used commercially at a small scale. This is perhaps due to uncertainty in the industry about the technical and economic viability of capturing the gas at these levels.

Retrofits and transportation of recovered gas to processing facilities can be costly. Without a global cost penalty for emitted carbon there is seen to be little benefit to capture the flared gas, particularly in countries with developing economies. Similarly, different geographies conjure various technical, regulatory, and economic drivers and limitations. Access to funding to develop projects and the implementation of technologies is also a major factor.

Where there are carbon emissions regulations in place, there is obviously more incentive to capture the waste from gas flaring. In the US, there are limits in place for gas flaring that penalize operators through the curtailment of production for missing targets. As a result, new technologies are emerging with a variety of solutions. Since issuing its research, DNV GL has had a number of companies approach for assistance with the qualification process to help establish technologies in the market. The North Dakota Petroleum Council has set targets to reduce flaring. These were set to 26% by the fourth quarter of 2014, 23% by the first quarter of 2015, 15% by the first quarter of 2016, and 10% with the potential for 5% by the fourth quarter of 2020.
Improving People’s Lives: #SPECares
Authors: Meehan Nathan
Published: January 2017

President's column

Wealth is not new. Neither is charity. But the idea of using private wealth imaginatively, constructively, and systematically to attack the fundamental problems of mankind is new.—John Gardner

Historical philanthropy was primarily driven by religious convictions or the desire to remain in power. Around the time of John D. Rockefeller, something remarkable occurred as the great wealth created by industrialization ushered in a different sort of giving, targeted at improving people’s lives. Rockefeller started as an office clerk at age 16, creating his own firm 4 years later. His success in building Standard Oil was unprecedented—the firm would eventually be broken up into more than 30 individual companies that would grow to become Exxon, Mobil, Amoco, Sohio, and others. He gave away most of his wealth, founding the University of Chicago and Rockefeller University, but much of the giving was targeted at achieving specific goals. One example was focusing on eradicating hookworm disease across the southern US. Oil industry leaders have a long tradition of philanthropy, just one more way our industry serves the public good.

SPE has set aside a modest amount of money for disaster relief in areas where our members reside. To date, we have contributed more than USD 100,000 to various efforts including USD 10,000 each to relief efforts following this year’s 7.8 magnitude earthquake in Ecuador and the Fort McMurray wildfires in Alberta and Saskatchewan, Canada.

Most of us donate to charities according both to our abilities to do so and our convictions. One of the things I have been most pleased to see is not the donation of money, but the time and energy SPE members have contributed to charitable causes. I joined SPE in 1975 and one of the first activities I participated in was a section activity to raise money for scholarships, one of the most common areas for giving. SPE members have often been ready to volunteer for many efforts designed to benefit the public or deserving individuals or groups. I am thrilled to see sections and chapters around the world contributing their time and efforts to a wide variety of activities.

In June, the SPE Board of Directors adopted “SPE Cares” as the name for global SPE volunteer initiatives, thereby promoting community service worldwide while bringing together students and young and experienced professionals. We can shed a positive light in the oil and gas industry and make a difference in our community outside our careers.
Interview with 2017 SPE President Janeen Judah
Authors: Judah Janeen
Published: January 2017

What will be your main goals as SPE president?

I have four goals in mind.

Guiding SPE through rough seas. My No. 1 goal is to keep SPE on an even keel. It sounds boring and un-ambitious, but we are sailing through rough seas right now. I’ve had people laugh and tell me I picked a great year to be president. I didn’t exactly pick it, but I am one of the best qualified to lead SPE in hard times because I have been so involved in leadership for such a long time. I was vice president of finance on the SPE Board of Directors, director representative of the Gulf Coast North America Region, and chaired both the Gulf Coast and Permian Basin sections. That experience brings a lot to the table when it comes time to make difficult decisions. For a steady hand on the wheel, I am a good person for managing in difficult times.

Developing engineers. During my term, you will see an emphasis on people capabilities as part of the Big Crew Change, particularly in developing countries. There is a significant push from governments for operators to develop local staff, and SPE can be part of the solution. I also have a personal soft spot for Latin America, and I am going to try to spend quality time there.

Reaching out to women. Another obvious outreach will be to women. I am the first female SPE president in more than a decade, so the latest generation has not seen a woman at the top. Young women in SPE look to me to be an example, so I will make myself accessible and visible to them. I realized years ago that I am an example whether I want to be or not, so I might as well step into those shoes. There are still very few women engineers in the industry—most women in leadership have a geoscience background.

Protecting the environment. I also want to emphasize environmental protection through responsible operations. I previously ran Chevron’s Environmental Management Company. We did offshore decommissioning, pipeline removal, handled all the Superfund sites for the company, orphan gas stations, any kind of end-of-life reclamation and dealing with regulators. The issue is doing things right as you operate and setting up your operation with the knowledge that someday you may have to leave there. I have a JPT column already planned for environmental stewardship, so look forward to more on that.
Method for Monitoring Mud Contamination in Wireline-Formation-Tester Sampling
Authors: Carpenter Chris
Published: January 2017

This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper SPE 175116, “Effective Method for Monitoring Oil-Based-Mud Contamination in Wireline-Formation-Tester Sampling,” by W. Pineda, BP; F. Gozalpour, formerly BP; and Mehdi Hagshenas, BP, prepared for the 2015 SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, Houston, 28–30 September. The paper has not been peer reviewed.

The wireline formation tester (WFT) is a well-developed technology used to collect representative downhole fluid samples. Collecting low-contamination downhole samples in wells drilled with miscible oil-based mud (OBM) is challenging because the process must balance the need to acquire a sample with the desired level of contamination while using the minimum rig time.

The authors introduce a simple but effective method for monitoring WFT sampling when targeting the low levels of contamination needed for asphaltene-onset-pressure analysis.

Introduction

Flow-assurance problems caused by asphaltene deposition are common reasons for lost and deferred production in Gulf of Mexico Miocene reservoirs. High-quality samples are needed to measure the asphaltene-onset pressure and manage related flow-assurance problems. The asphaltene-onset pressure varies with the level of OBM contamination. The rise of asphaltene-related flow-assurance issues encourages operators to acquire high-quality downhole samples with the lowest possible OBM contamination.

To reduce OBM contamination, operators have to pump out fluid from the formation to the borehole before filling the samples at the desired OBM-contamination level. There is not a standard procedure to determine a sample’s contamination level during the pumpout. Engineers sometimes rely on empirical evidence and previous experience to determine contamination levels. This study introduces a practical method to estimate the contamination level from real-time fluid-analyzer data. A discussion of methods used to predict contamination is provided in the complete paper.

Conventional and Focused Probes

The most-common probes used for downhole sampling in the oil industry are conventional and focused probes. Conventional probes have a single inlet to take formation fluid; the inlet is surrounded by a sealing material to isolate formation fluids from the wellbore mud column. Focused probes are available from several service companies. These probes can use a hydraulic ring inlet (guard) surrounding the probe inlet (sample) to create a barrier between the probe and the borehole fluid. The guard and sample are connected to separate hydraulic systems that allow controlling the pump rates to maintain the pressure in the guard at or slightly below the pressure in the sample. By doing this, most of the fluid drawn into the sample will be uncontaminated fluid. After the cleanout pumping, fluid from the sample inlet will be used to fill the tanks.
A New Approach for Optimization of Long-Horizontal-Well Performance
Authors: Carpenter Chris
Published: January 2017

This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper IPTC 18372, “A New Approach for Optimization of Long-Horizontal-Well Performances,” by Abdullah Al Qahtani, Hasan Al Hashim, and Hasan Al Yousef, King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals, prepared for the 2015 International Petroleum Technology Conference, Doha, Qatar, 7–9 December. The paper has not been peer reviewed. Copyright 2015 International Petroleum Technology Conference. Reproduced by permission.

Initially, it was believed that a horizontal well should be drilled with as much length as possible. However, field experience and flowmeter surveys in long horizontal drainholes revealed that the frictional pressure loss in the wellbore is an important factor hindering the full use of the entire length of the horizontal well. This paper presents a new approach to maximize the use of the full length of long horizontal drainholes.

Introduction

Horizontal-well drilling allowed the drilling of different well architectures and made it possible to offset well costs and productivity limitations. Intuitively, drilling longer wells will maximize exposure to the producing formation and yield higher flow capacity. Paradoxically, however, some wells were drilled longer than the optimal horizontal-section length and the extra length did not yield additional flow. Therefore, it is important to determine the optimal horizontal-section length that would achieve flow contribution along the whole section.

Experience has revealed that long horizontal wells suffer from frictional pressure losses. This fact is exacerbated in the presence of highly productive formations; these would require low pressure drawdowns that may well be similar to the frictional pressure losses, which would therefore hinder wellbore flow ingress. Thus, some horizontal wells are equipped with downhole flow-choke systems to optimize well productivity.

Finite-Conductivity Horizontal Wells

Horizontal wells are initially deemed to be infinite-conductivity wellbores; this thesis was made on the basis of the fact that the magnitude of the pressure drop in the wellbore is negligible. Practically speaking, however, production data proved otherwise; frictional pressure losses in horizontal wellbores hinder flow influx to different degrees along the horizontal section. This issue is of great importance under conditions in which the magnitude of the pressure drop in the wellbore is small when compared with the magnitude of the pressure drop in the reservoir. Therefore, given the fact that horizontal wells are often proposed and justified on the premise that high production rates can be obtained by small reservoir pressure drops, and the fact that flow developed at reasonably high production rates should cause increased wellbore pressure losses, the use of the infinite-conductivity assumption for horizontal wells may not be valid.
Unconventional Risk and Uncertainty: What Does Success Look Like?
Authors: Carpenter Chris
Published: January 2017

This article, written by JPT Technology Editor Chris Carpenter, contains highlights of paper SPE 179996, “Unconventional Risk and Uncertainty: Show Me What Success Looks Like,” by David S. Fulford, Apache, prepared for the 2016 SPE/IAEE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, Houston, 17–18 May. The paper has not been peer reviewed.

This paper presents approaches for proper risking of uncertain recoverable volumes for an unconventional resource, taking into account the chance of false positives from appraisal-well information. A subjective risk tolerance can be included to respect how aggressive or conservative a company may be in pursuit of a project. A method of recasting production profiles is demonstrated as an improvement over the common method of scaling, or factoring, the initial production rate.

Introduction

Onshore unconventional liquids-shale and gas-shale plays are often referred to as “continuous accumulations” or “resource plays.” The characterization of perceived geologic continuity frames perception of these plays as having little to no risk, to the point that “well manufacturing” is a noncontroversial term used to refer to development of these assets. Exploration-and-production companies often tout a “type well” as an indication of the viability of their assets. However, a type well, by definition, represents the mean of a population of wells. Not all individual wells must be commercial in order for the mean well to be commercial.

The well population is something that cannot be predicted, but only estimated. This implies uncertainty. However, the argument that there is risk remains to be made. Regardless of the cause of this no-risk assumption, the tools exist to address uncertainty. Empirical modeling must follow from first principles. This applies not only to the evaluation of individual wells to determine their ultimate recovery but also to the statistical models built to judge the economic value of drilled wells.

In the analysis of small sample sizes (and assuming independent and identically distributed samples), the variance is always overestimated. The cause of this phenomenon lies within the roots of regression analysis—or, more accurately, in the assumptions made during the application of regression analysis.
THE ANALYSIS OF THE U.S. EXTERNAL DEBT IN TERMS OF FACING THE CHALLENGES OF THE WORLD ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Authors: Pin Andrii
Published: January 2017

The up-to-date approaches to external debt and its effects on economic processes entrench the standpoint of debt financing being the distinctive feature of the modern inclined-to-liberalization world. Subsequently, unhampered capital flow between economies is the offspring of macroeconomic equilibrium, since the allocation of capital based on barrier-free movement pays the way for factor prices levelling. Given these points, commodity prices develop a propensity for adjustment, financial system acquires sustainability and reliability. This research builds on existing knowledge in the domain of debt and is conducted in pursue of analyzing the U.S. external debt and effects it has on both the U.S. Economy and the global economy. Prior to looking into the external debt itself, the research study reveals the latest world financial and economic tendencies, the distinguishing features of which are low interest rates and smoldering economic growth. The IMF dubbed this economic agenda as “…a low growth, low-rate area” [1]. Along similar lines, the results of the research lend firm support to the view that the U.S. external debt poses little threat to the world economy in the short-run, since the U.S. economic growth outpaces debt servicing costs build-up. However, in case of the emergence of an economic decline, the United States may face challenges of debt servicing in the long-run perspective, hence fail to comply with the sacred principles of debt relationship such as timeliness and solvency
THE ANALYSIS OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN LESION OF FUNCTIONAL SYSTEMS OF NERVOUS SYSTEM AND SEVERITY OF FATIGUE IN PATIENTS WITH MULTIPLE SCLEROSIS
Authors: Mialovytska Olena , Khyzhniak Yuliia
Published: January 2017

Despite numerous investigations, fatigue remains one of the least studied manifestations of MS. However, significant prevalence of this symptom proves importance of its study. The aim of the study was to define a prognostic assessment of fatigue development accompanying lesions of certain functional systems and degree of disability. Material and methods. 96 patients, aged 15 to 58 years with a diagnosis of MS have been examined. MS patients were examined with the same protocol, using formalized scales. To detect fatigue and determine the degree of its severity was used Fatigue Severity Scale (FSS). The degree of disability in patients was assessed by Kurtzke EDSS (Expanded Disability Status Scale). Statistical methods for the data analysis were also used, including methods of descriptive statistics, probability assessment and prognostic significance of obtained data using odds ratio (OR). Results. Fatigue was detected in 49.1% of patients with a degree of disability lower than 4 EDSS scores and in 90.4% of patients with disability higher than 4 EDSS scores (p=0.0027). The assessment of functional systems at the time of observation has statistically significant prognostic values according to the following parameters: pyramidal system lesion (OR=7.43 (2.43–22.76)), coordination disorders (OR=4.60 (1.05–20.25)), cranial nerve lesion (OR=4.33 (1.40–13.39)), (p<0.05). Lesion of the pyramidal and coordination systems at the onset of the disease may increase risk for detection of fatigue higher than 4 scores in the follow-up observation (lesion of pyramidal system – OR=1.62 (0.5–5.25), coordination disorders OR=1.41 (0.58–5.16)). Conclusion. The results of our investigation showed that symptom of fatigue is observed in almost 90 % of MS patients. The study showed that fatigue in MS patients depends on the degree of disability and lesions of certain functional systems.
Stratégies de prise de notes à l'aide d'une tablette électronique chez des étudiants du secondaire | Digital Tablet Note-Taking Strategies among High School Students
Authors: Giroux Patrick , Gauthier Diane , Cody Nadia , Coulombe Sandra , Gagné Andréanne , Gaudreault Suzie
Published: January 2017

Both media and digital literacies are essential for the 21st century. Consequently, several governments have integrated technologies with school curriculums. Recently, ICT integration efforts, particularly with the digital tablet, have multiplied. Several academic uses of the tablet are explored, and some raise questions. This is the case of note taking as viewed in a single Quebec high school. Which application should students use, and should it be the same one for all subjects? Is it effective? Which strategies should be promoted? These are not trivial questions where educational success is concerned. Whereas note taking using certain technological tools has already been studied, little research has focused on with the use of a digital tablet. Students who use a tablet daily were asked a series of questions related to note taking. Our analysis suggests that teachers should play an active role in the appropriation of this tool.Les littératies médiatique et numérique sont essentielles pour le 21e siècle. Plusieurs gouvernements les intègrent par conséquent aux curriculums scolaires. Actuellement, les efforts d’intégration de la tablette numérique se multiplient. Plusieurs usages scolaires sont cités et certains soulèvent des interrogations. C’est le cas de la prise de notes qui soulève des questions auprès de plusieurs enseignants d’une école secondaire québécoise. Avec quelle application? Une seule? Toujours la même? Dans toutes les matières ? Est-ce efficace? Quelles stratégies de prise de notes doit-on favoriser? Ces questions sont importantes pour la réussite scolaire. La prise de notes à l’aide d’outils technologiques a déjà fait l’objet d’études lors de l’intégration d’autres technologies mais peu de recherches se sont intéressées à cette stratégie d’apprentissage avec les tablettes numériques. Un questionnaire a été rempli par des étudiants du secondaire qui utilisent la tablette quotidiennement. L’analyse des résultats montre que les enseignants doivent jouer un rôle actif dans l'appropriation de cet outil.
A thought of performance
Authors: Nauha Tero
Published: January 2017

In this article I attempt to trace the path of my artistic research, which began from the application of schizoanalysis in performance and which now explores the possible limits of thought in order to regard how performance thinks in specifically different ways from discursive forms of thought, such as philosophy. The main argument starts from the notion – borrowed from French thinker, François Laruelle - that philosophical thought does not tell us more about the Real than any other gestures of thought. I begin from a speculative relationship between the apparatus of cognitive capitalism. I conclude by superpositioning the post-humanist thought of Laruelle and Karen Barad with the concept of ‘non-standard’ performance as fictioning. As a whole, the article aims to propose a performative approach to artistic research in these terms.
EVALUASI ISI BUKU TEKS PELAJARAN SEJARAH PADA MASA ORDE BARU
Authors: Purwanta Hieronymus
Published: February 2017

Abstrak: Evaluasi Isi Buku Teks Pelajaran Sejarah pada Masa Orde Baru. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mjengevaluasi isi buku teks sejarah untuk sekolah menengah pada masa Order Baru. Penelitian ini merupakan penelitian kualitatif, dengan fokus pada analisis isi buku teks sejarah. Analisis dan evaluasi dilakukan dengan menggunakan kriteria Sartono dalam menulis sejarah nasional. Temuan penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kualitas buku teks sejarah sudah berkembang tetapi masih perlu perbaikan dalam hal pendekatan, kesamaan, dan integrasi nasional. Kata Kunci: evaluasi, pelajaran sejarah, buku teks, kesamaan, integrasi nasionalAbstract: An Evaluation of The History Textbooks in The New Order Era. This study aimed to evaluate the content of history textbooks for high schools in the New Order era. The research method used was qualitative, focusing on the content analysis of history textbooks. The analysis and evaluation used Sartono’s criteria of writing the national history. The findings showed that the quality of history textbooks had already developed, but it needed improvement in approach, equity and national integration. Keywords: evaluation, history textbooks, equity, national integration
MODEL PEMBERDAYAAN KELEMBAGAAN LOKAL SEBAGAI WAHANA PENDIDIKAN PENGEMBANGAN USAHA
Authors: . Sukidjo , Muhson Ali
Published: February 2017

Abstrak: Model Pemberdayaan Kelembagaan Lokal Sebagai Wahana Pendidikan Pengembangan Usaha. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah mengetahui : (1) permasalahan yang dihadapi kelompok usaha warga miskin dalam mengembangkan usaha; (2) kegiatan pemberdayaan yang dilakukan Tim Konsultan Manajemen Wilayah (KMW) terhadap lembaga lokal; (3) kegiatan pemberdayaan yang dilakukan lembaga lokal terhadap kelompok usaha dalam mengembangkan usaha. Penelitian ini merupakan R&D, dilakukan di Provinsi Yogyakarta. Penentuan sampel dilakukan secara random. Pengumpulan data dilakukan dengan kuesioner, interview dan dokumentasi. Sedangkan untuk analisis data digunakan analisis deskriptif kualitatif. Berdasarkan analisis data diperoleh simpulan : (1) permasalahan utama yang dihadapi kelompok usaha warga miskin adalah kekurangan modal kerja, bahan baku dan pemasaran; (2) Kegiatan pemberdayaan yang dilakukan Tim KMW kepada lembaga lokal berupa pelatihan dan pendampingan; (3) kegiatan pemberdayaan yang dilakukan lembaga lokal terhadap kelompok usaha berupa pelatihan, bimbingan, pendampingan melalui program pinjaman bergulir, pelatihan keterampilan dan pembangunan permukiman dan lingkungan. Kata Kunci: pemberdayaan dan pengembangan usaha Abstract : Local Institutional Empowerment Model As A Educational for Bisnis Development. The objective of this study were to identify : (1) the problem facing the poor in developing their business; (2) empowerment activities that was undertaken by Regional Management Consultant Team towards local institution; (3) empowerment activities that was undertaken by local institution toward business groups in order to developing their business activity. This study was R & D, and undertaken in Yogyakarta Province. Samples were randomly selected. Data were obtained through questionnaire, interview, and documentation. Data analysis used descriptive qualitative analysis. Conclusion of this study were : (1) the main problem faced by business group of the poor is lack of capital, raw materials, and marketing; (2) empowerment activities that was undertaken by Regional Management Consultant Team towards local institution were training and mentoring; (3)empowerment activities that was undertaken by local institution toward business groups in order to developing their business activity were training, guidance, assistance through revolving loan program, skills training, and development of settlement and environment Keywords : empowerment and bisnis development
Retno Dwi Suyanti dan Kristian H. Sugiyarto
Authors: Suyanti Retno Dwi , Sugiyarto Kristian H.
Published: February 2017

Abstrak: Penelitian praktikum multimedia tentang pemodelan alotrop karbon fulerena telah dilakuk untuk mengatasi miskonsepsi pada ikatan kimia. Mahasiswa sebagai sampel membuat tiga bola kertC 60 , C 70 dan C sesuai map geometri heksagonal menurut prosedur yang telah disediakan. Selanjutnymahasiswa diminta menentukan jumlah dan posisi atom karbon relatif terhadap lingkar pentagonheksagon pengeliling, jenis dan jumlah ikatan tunggal-rangkap, pada ketiga bola-kertas yang dibuanya. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan adanya peningkatan dari rerata skor 33,00 (pretes) menjadi 87,(postes) dengan rerata gain (capaian) ternormalisasi 0,80 (kategori tinggi). Selain itu persepsi mahsiswa atas kegiatan ini juga termasuk kategori tinggi (~92%). 80 Kata Kunci: fullerena, multimedia, miskonsepsi THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MULTIMEDIA PRACTICAL OF CHEMISTRY BOUND IN IMPROVING CHEMISTRY STUDENTS’ LEARNING ACHIEVEMENT Abstract: The study of the multimedia practical in creating carbon allotrope of fullerenes was con ducted for overcoming misconception in chemical bond. The students as samples were asked to prpare individually three “paper-balls” of C 60 , C 70 and C from the corresponding structural-hexagon maps given to them along with the procedures. They were then asked to calculate the number carbon atoms and identify the position of them relative to the pentagonal-hexagonal rings, identify ttype of single-double covalent bonds and calculate the number of them. The findings showed ththere was a significant increase in the average learning achievement from 33.00 (pre-test) to 87.(post-test) with the normalized gain score average of 0.80 (in the high category). Moreover, the stdents’ perceptions toward this activity belonged to the high category (~92%). Keywords: fullerenes, multimedia, misconception 80
PENGARUH KUALITAS PELAYANAN DAN KOMITMEN MAHASISWA TERHADAP MOTIVASI BERPRESTASI MAHASISWA PERGURUAN TINGGI SWASTA
Authors: Dirwan A.
Published: February 2017

Abstrak: Tujan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh kualitas pelayanan dan komitmen mahasiswa terhadap motivasi berprestasi di PTS Jakarta. Subjek penelitian sebanyak 80 mahasiswa. Kerangka penelitian mengacu pada apakah kualitas pelayanan dan komitmen memunyai pengaruh terhadap motivasi berprestasi yang diukur lewat angket. Instrumen penelitian terdiri atas 25 butir pertanyaan untuk kualitas pelayanan, 26 butir komitmen, dan 29 butir motivasi berprestasi. Analisis data menggunakan teknik korelasi, analisis regresi ganda, dan koefisien jalur dengan bantuan SPSS versi 17.0. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa bahwa: (1) terdapat pengaruh dari kualitas pelayanan terhadap motivasi berprestasi; (2) terdapat pengaruh dari komitmen terhadap motivasi berprestasi; (3) terdapat pengaruh kualitas pelayanan dan komitmen secara bersama-sama terhadap motivasi berprestasi mahasiswa PTS Jakarta. Kata Kunci: kualitas pelayanan, komitmen, motivasi berprestasi THE INFLUENCE OF SERVICE QUALITY AND STUDENT COMMITMENT ON ACHIEVEMENT MOTIVATION AT PRIVATE UNIVERSITY Abstract: The purpose of this study was to determine the influence of service quality and commitment on achievement motivation at Private University in Jakarta. The subject of this research were 80 students, by using 5 Likert Scale. The framework of this research was based on that service quality (X 1 ) and commitment (X ) had influence of achievement motivation (Y). The service quality was measured with 25 items question, commitment was measured with 26 items question, and achievement motivation was measured with 29 items question/statement. Data analysis used in this research was a multiple regression and path analysis. Obtained data then were examined with SPSS 17.0 version. From the research it can concluded that: (1) there was influence of service quality toward achievement motivation; (2) there was influence of commitment toward achievement motivation; (3) there was influence of service quality and commitment simultaneously toward achievement motivation students in Private University Jakarta. 2 Keywords : service quality, commitment, achievement motivation