The statistical analysis of daily data associated with different parameters of the New Coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic in Georgia and their monthly interval prediction from January 1, 2022 to March 31, 2022
Authors: Amiranashvili Avtandil G. , Khazaradze Ketevan R. , Japaridze Nino D. 
Published: May 2022

In this work results of the next statistical analysis of the daily data associated with New Coronavirus COVID-19 infection of confirmed (C), recovered (R), deaths (D) and infection rate (I) cases of the population of Georgia in the period from January 01, 2022 to March 31, 2022 are presented. It also presents the results of the analysis of monthly forecasting of the values of C, D and I. As earlier, the information was regularly sent to the National Center for Disease Control & Public Health of Georgia and posted on the Facebook page https://www.facebook.com/Avtandil1948/.

The analysis of data is carried out with the use of the standard statistical analysis methods of random events and methods of mathematical statistics for the non-accidental time-series of observations. In particular, the following results were obtained.

Georgia’s ranking in the world for Covid-19 monthly mean values of infection and deaths cases in investigation period (per 1 million population) was determined. Among 157 countries with population ≥ 1 million inhabitants in February 2022 Georgia was in the 4 place on new infection cases, in the 2 place on death. Georgia took the best place in terms of confirmed cases of diseases (thirty fifth) and in mortality (tenth) - in March.

A comparison between the daily mortality from Covid-19 in Georgia from January 01, 2022 to March 31, 2022 with the average daily mortality rate in 2015-2019 shows, that the largest share value of D from mean death in 2015-2019 was 43.1 % (January 04, 2022), the smallest 2.12 % (March 23, 2022).

As in previous works [10–13] the statistical analysis of the daily and decade data associated with coronavirus COVID-19 pandemic of confirmed, recovered, deaths cases and infection rate of the population of Georgia are carried out. Maximum daily values of investigation parameters are following: C = 26320 (February 2, 2022), R = 48486 (February 12, 2022), D = 67 (January 4,2022), I = 41.58 % (February 14, 2022). Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: C = 22214 (1 Decade of February 2022), R = 23408 (2 Decade of February 2022), D = 45 (2 Decade of February 2022), I = 32.12% (1 Decade of February 2022).

It was found that as in spring, summer and from September to December 2021 [10,11,13], in investigation period of time the regression equations for the time variability of the daily values of C, R, D and I have the form of a tenth order polynomial.

Mean values of speed of change of confirmed - V(C), recovered - V(R), deaths - V(D) and infection rate V(I) coronavirus-related cases in different decades of months for the indicated period of time were determined. Maximum mean decade values of investigation parameters are following: V(C) = +1079 cases/day (3 Decade of January 2022), V(R) = +1139 cases/day (1 Decade of February 2022), V(D) = +0.8 cases/day (1 Decade of February 2022), V(I) = + 1.16 %/ day (3 decades of January 2022).

Cross-correlations analysis between confirmed COVID-19 cases with recovered and deaths cases shows, that from January 1, 2022 to March 31, 2022 the maximum effect of recovery is observed on 3-6 days after infection (CR=0.83-0.84), and deaths - after 2 and 4 days (CR=0.60). The impact of the omicron variant of the coronavirus on people (recovery, mortality) could be up to19 and 16 days respectively.

Comparison of daily real and calculated monthly predictions data of C, D and I in Georgia are carried out. It was found that in investigation period of time daily and mean monthly real values of C, D and I mainly fall into the 67% - 99.99% confidence interval of these predicted values. Exception - predicted values of I for January 2022 (alarming deterioration, violation of the stability of a time-series of observations).

Traditionally, the comparison of data about C and D in Georgia (GEO) with similar data in Armenia (ARM), Azerbaijan (AZE), Russia (RUS), Turkey (TUR) and in the World (WRL) is also carried out.