Omställning till ett hållbart transport- och mobilitetssystem med människan i centrum
Authors: Bydler Roger , Björkström Anders , Fritzson Peter , Gullberg Anders , Schütt Lars , Sundblad Yngve 
Published: August 2022

The global warming is the greatest challenge of our time. The first report by the UN climate panel, IPCC, was published 1990. Thus, it is more than 30 years since the research community concluded that a rapid climate change is ongoing. Since then new research has shown that already at 1.5 degrees global warming there are definite risks for environments needed by both humans, animals, and nature. This motivated a large majority of the world’s countries to sign the Paris Agreement at the UN climate conference, COP 21, in 2015. The Paris Agreement states that the countries of the World shall take action to keep the global average temperature increase far below 2.0 degrees and preferably below 1.5 degrees. Despite the fact that it is scientifically shown and generally accepted that human caused emissions is the completely dominating cause of the global warming, the necessary actions to reduce emissions are still missing. The average global temperature increase is now 1.1 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial times. With this as background, the Swedish Climate Parliament (an NGO, www.klimatriksdagen.se) develops a set of proposals for climate policy actions based on Sweden’s commitments according to the Paris Agreement. The CO2 emission budget for Sweden 2020 according to these assumptions show that the Swedish emission budget will be used up latest 2035. This report about mobility and transport is an independent report and at the same time input to the Climate Parliament’s comprehensive climate-based transition plan. Domestic transport causes about a third of Sweden’s territorial emission. If we also include emissions from fuels stored in Sweden, bunkered fuels for aircraft and ships, Sweden’s emissions related to transport amounts to about 40 percent. The transport sector is characterized by many interactions to other sectors and requires large investments. The transition to a climate neutral neutral transport section within slightly more than a decade therefore requires powerful and rapidly executed actions. The goal of an emission free transport sector for Sweden 2035 has been guiding the analysis and choice of actions. By putting this in relation to the situation of today, a number of alternative scenarios with different sets of actions to reach this goal have been developed. This methodology is called back-casting. Emission trajectories for these scenarios illustrate how emission reductions can be distributed over time. Moreover, dynamic system modeling and simulation has also been employed regarding analysis of how and when different actions should be executed. In this report we claim that the view of transport and transport planning must be fundamentally changed. Human needs and conditions, high availability, and low resource usage should be long term goals and the transport planning should be included in the general societal planning. A climate friendly mobility pattern must be created. People’s acceptance and engagement will be absolutely crucial for the success of the sustainability transition. The proposed actions should be viewed in view of the commitments that Sweden has done and the CO2 budget for Sweden that becomes the consequence. Certain proposals may appear to be less popular and therefore difficult to implement. Nonetheless, even these are not enough. This is true especially for air traffic but also for person transport on road and at sea. Over time the proposed actions need to be extended and applied more strictly in order for the CO2 budget of the transport sector to be accommodated within the applicable CO2 budget. The introductory part of the report first presents a summary of the conclusions and proposals of the report, followed by the goals that need to be reached at the target year 2035. What will happen and which actions have been realized until the year 2035? Usually visions of the future starts at the current situation today and projects current trends forward in time. This has the drawback that the current situation and trends may lock thinking and prevent necessary actions. However, the climate induced transition will need such large and comprehensive changes that parts of today’s thinking, methodology and tradition have to be abandoned and replaced by new methods and creative solutions. The parts of the report that describe proposed actions are written based on what is applicable today. They should be decided on and executed very soon in order that necessary changes should happen in time. During this process re-evaluation of policies and solutions will need to be done continuously. New conditions and new possibilities will appear. The many solutions and actions and the connections and inter-relations between those that must be fulfilled to get the desired results indicate the complexity of the climate sustainability transition. Considerations and conclusions summarized: The short time available – since the transition to a climate friendly mobility and transport system needs to take place during a little bit more than a decade – results in requirements on decisions and implementation of powerful and rapidly implemented measures. A fundamentally new point of view, a system perspective, is applied to mobility, transport, and their roles in society. Availability and measures related to different modes of transportation will be coordinated and supported in relation to societal benefits such as availability, equity, reduced climate impact, health, local environment, and biodiversity. The climate related transformation of the transport sector will be seriously begun only if these goals are used as guidance, in relation to available carbon dioxide budgets, abandoning todays’ forecast driven and short term oriented infra structure planning. A digital system for dynamic and differentiated prices on usage of road infra structure – dynamic and differentiated road fees – coordinated with supply and a comprehensive public transport ticket system will influence traffic volumes, choice of transport mode, and create long term financing of public transport. The public investments will be financed from a general governmental fund. Measures for reduced road traffic volumes are combined with actions to stimulate increased mobility on foot, via bicycle, or public transport, and a rapid electrification of motor vehicles. Large scale investments are done within the railway system, public transport, charge infrastructure and broadband. These should be implemented very rapidly to contribute to reduced climate emissions until 2035. The total emissions from the transport sector, including both biogenic and fossil carbon dioxide, are at a such a large order of magnitude that they cannot be completely eliminated to net zero until 2035 using practically available measures. The national carbon dioxide budget for mobility and transport is regionalized at a level where the climate transition can be effectively coordinated in collaboration with affected parties and with support from governmental investment funds.