bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Agriculture Sector Employment and the Need for Off-Farm
Employment in the North-West Frontier Province
Authors: Al-Jalaly S. Zia
Published: August 2018

The North-West Frontier Province is essentially a mountainous
region intermixed with fertile valleys of agricultural lands. The
diversity of the region is well reflected through the agro-ecological
regions map of the Pakistan Agricultural Research Councile where 6 out
of the 10 regions indentified are .found in the NWFP. The total
population of the NWFP stood at 11.1 million persons in 1981 with an
annual growth rate higher than the national average (3.32 percent as
against 3.1 percent for Pakistan). Moreover, the literacy rate is
abysmally low, standing as it d~es at about 16.7 percent (which
according to some is an optimistic estimate). The inflow of over 3.5
million Afghan refugees and the location of more than three-fourths of
this number in the NWFP has compounded the problems with far reaching
implications for the economy, environment and the level of off-farm
employment. The influx of these refugees with their herds and beasts of
burden have tended to encroach on forest lands and led to over-grazing
of pastures resulting in environmental degradation. The rapidly
mUltiplying demand for food has led to crops being grown on steep and
unstable slopes.
The Cultural Context of Women's Productive Invisibility: A Case
Study of a Pakistani Village
Authors: Israz Tassawar Saeed
Published: August 2018

This paper shows that women in Rajpur, a Punjabi village in
Pakistan, participate substantially in activities that are productive
and are geared directly or indirectly towards producing utilities of
some kind. These utilities are both income-generating and/or
expenditure-saving. Women are extensively involved in many agricultural
and livestock-tending operations, in addition to their involvement in
other productive domains such as poultry-tending, processing of dairy
products, and handicrafts. Whereas men are working in the city to earn
extra cash, women too, are working in pursuit of the same goal. However,
women's involvement in these activities remains relatively unrecognised
within larger cultural pictures and has not resulted in elevating their
status within society. Despite women's productive activities, they are
largely projected as domestic and private beings and their roles as
home-makers, mothers, and nurturers of children have come to be
culturally emphasised to the exclusion of all others. The institutions
of purdah and segregation of sexes which confine women and their
activities to the private domains and permit men access to the public
domains act as effective cultural devices in creating blinders to
women's productive roles. This paper contends that the existing dominant
cultural images of women and the invisibility of their productive
dimensions reflect social values rather than social reality.
Enakshi Ganguly Thukral (ed). Big Dams, Displaced People: Rivers
of Sorrow, Rivers of Change. New Delhi: Sage Publications. 1992. 199 pp.
Hardbound. Price: Indian Rs 120.
Authors: Mahmood Mir Annice
Published: August 2018

Big or super dams are considered to be potent symbols of
development. These dams, starting with the Hoover Dam constructed in the
1930s in the USA to the Tarbela Dam in Pakistan built during the 1970s,
are concrete symbols of man's domination of nature. Currently, there are
more than 100 "super dams" in existence around the world. The storage
capacity of water in these dams is some 6000 cubic kilometres and the
area covered is about 600,000 square kilometres. These dams have
significantly contributed to the process of development by helping
generate vast quantities of electricity to power industry and to provide
irrigation water for agricultural purposes. In addition, these dams have
helped control the flow of water, thereby reducing the threat of
flooding to those areas situated downstream from the dams. Despite these
benefits, however, big dams have come under increasing criticism
particularly from environmental and ecological groups. Also, the
construction of these dams results in the displacement of large numbers
of people, largely from low-income groups, who have to be resettled in
other localities. Such resettlements are not without physical and
emotional cost to those who have to be relocated, and also to those
communities which have to accept these displaced people. It would be
appropriate to mention here some of the major dams which have been built
in the recent years and which have not come up to the expectations of
their proponents. These include the Akosombo Dam in Ghana; the Kainji
Dam in Nigeria; and several dams in Central Asia built on rivers that
flow into the Aral Sea. These latter dams have caused a decline in the
flow of freshwater into the sea, resulting in a fall in the level of
water in the Aral Sea. This has destroyed fisheries and has altered the
local climate, as well as causing the coastline to retreat.
Allocative Efficiency and Input Subsidy in Asian
Agriculture
Authors: Hoque Asraul
Published: August 2018

In this paper, input subsidies (fertiliser subsidies to be
exact) have been related to the allocative efficiency of fertiliser
input. Fertiliser was singled out not to ignore other inputs but to
emphasise the fact that fertiliser accounts for at least 30 percent of
the total farm expenditure in most of Asia, and the rest of the expense
is accounted for by labour (which is primarily family labour). The
regression results are based on a sample survey data of 150 farms of
Khulna Division (Bangladesh) for the year 1986-87. We have first
estimated a production function based on Hoque (1991) and then
calculated the efficiency indices based on the estimated parameters of
the production function. In the second stage regression, different farm
sizes were regressed on efficiency indices which showed an overall
inverse relationship (that is, the smaller the farm size, the higher the
efficiency). This tendency is observed upto the size of 10 acres in case
of fertiliser input. Thus, the farms upto the size of 10 acres should be
subsidised to promote efficiency in production. However, if the
selective subsidy programme is difficult to administer, 'one hundred
percent subsidy may be worthwhile. It is argued that the withdrawal of
the fertiliser subsidy will reduce efficiency and have an adverse impact
on employment and output in the rural sector of Asia. The IFPRI (1987)
study on Indonesia also clearly indicates this. Some indicative
discussions in Section II and Section V support the statistical results
in favour of fertiliser subsidy.
Government Control and Economic Growth in Asia: Evidence from
Time Series Data
Authors: Satiar Zaidi
Published: August 2018

Government control of the economy varies widely, in degree as
well as effectiveness, across countries and continents. The LDCs of Asia
have generally opted for planned development and a large public sector,
giving their governments significant control over their economies. The
Newly Industrialising Countries (NICs) of Asia. on the other hand, have
thrived on economic liberalisation and greater market orientation. The
growth record of the Asian LDCs during the past decade appears pitiful
as compared to that of the high-growth NICs. The present study attempts
to empirically reassess the nature of the government's linkage with
growth and productivity in Asian LDCs. The study finds evidence of a
significant Jiilkage between government and growth in developing Asia.
but not in the NICs or eight of the leading market economies of the
world. Empirical evidence from the present study suggests that excessive
government control in the Asian LDCs might have bred inefficiency,
though not so much as to retard economic growth. On balance,
governmental impact on these economies remains significantly
positive.
Determinants of Marital Fertility in Pakistan: An Application of
the "Synthesis Framework"
Authors: Sabihuddin Buti Mohammed , Jamal Aroon
Published: August 2018

The fertility phase of the demographic transition has
increasingly been viewed as a movement from high to low levels of
fertility, and as a shift from natural fertility to deliberately
controlled fertility. In an attempt to gain more insight into this
process, the present study, in the context of Pakistan, is based on
intensive National Population, Labour Force, and Migration Survey data
covering 10,000 households. It aims to focus on the determinants of
fertility in Pakistan, specifically the determinants of the adoption of
deliberate fertility regulations. The role of socia-economic
modernisation and cultural factors in the determination of the potential
family size and the adoption of deliberate fertility control through a
knowledge of fertility regulations have also been explored. The
'Synthesis Framework' of fertility determination, applied to Sri Lanka
and Colombia by Easterlin and Crimmins (1982), and with its recent
modifications by Ahmed (1987), is the main vehicle for the
study.
Estimates of Birth Intervals in Pakistan, with and without the
WFS Restrictions
Authors: Khan Zubeda , Soomro Ghulam Y.
Published: August 2018

Almost all the World Fertility Surveys (WFS), and those
repeating a similar pattern of pregnancy history data collection, like
the Population, Labour Force, and Migration Survey (PLM) carried out in
Pakistan in 1979-80, covered information on proximate determinants for
the last closed and open birth intervals. This paper, based on the PLM
data, discusses the methodological issue of data collection. The types
of restriction used have often been doubted as they have produced biased
estimates of contraceptive use and duration of breast-feeding, which are
important in the estimation of birth interval and in the ultimate
estimation of the structures of the relationship predicting fertility.
The representativeness of the last closed and open birth intervals is
limited if these are probed deeper in the time before survey, as the
proportion of births gets quite small. It is inappropriate to estimate
proximate determinants on fertility data that do not provide information
on all the births. Therefore, an attempt has been made to estimate
contraceptive use and breast-feeding with and without the WFS
restrictions. The logit model has been used with a dichotomous variable,
'whether the next live birth occurs or not', on proximate determinants
and other socio-economic variables to estimate the amount of biasedness.
The results reveal that there appears to be a higher proportion of
unbiased estimates if they are derived through the unrestricted sample;
and these results are in conformity with the results found elsewhere.
The biasedness of the restricted samples also affects the studies aimed
at observing the relationship between the predictor and the dependent
variables.
Peter J. Montiel, Pierre-Richer Agenor, and Nadeem ul Haque.
Informal Financial Markets in Developing Countries: A Macroeconomic
Analysis. Published in the "Advances in Theoretical and Applied
Economics" series edited by Homa Motamen-Scobie. Oxford: Blackwell.
1992. i-xi + 212 pp., including appendices. Hardbound. £40.00.
Authors: Van der Geest Willem
Published: August 2018

This volume reviews the nature and scope of informal financial
markets in developing countries and elaborates on the theoretical and
conceptual models which analyse 'financial repression' and other aspects
of government intervention in financial markets. It also focuses on the
consequences which the prevalence of informal financial markets in
developing countries may have for monetary and exchange rate policy. In
particular, it attempts to capture the functioning of informal,
unregulated markets into macroeconomic models, working towards a general
eqUilibrium model with informal financial markets. Two types of informal
markets are analysed. The first are for informal lending at terms and
conditions which differ greatly from those prevailing in the official
banking system. The second are the 'parallel' markets for foreign
exchange which tend to emerge in response to quantity restrictions on
trade and administered allocation of foreign exchange to certain users
at official rates, which are well below those on the parellel markets.
The key question is whether these informal markets change the efficacy
of monetary and credit policy-and, if they do, to what extent and in
what direction? Two supporting appendices present econometric analyses
of the efficiency of parallel currency markets and the degree of capital
mobility in developing countries.
Stability, Wage Contracts, Rational Expectations, and
Devaluations
Authors: Zahid Ali Syed
Published: August 2018

The effects of devaluations on economies have caused a great
deal of concern in recent years. Conventional economists such as
Robinson (1947) and Meade (1951) hold the view that due to high
unemployment and the absence of any supplyside effects of the exchange
rates, devaluation will increase employment if it increases the demand
for home goods. A number of papers have been written which serioUsly
challenge this result on a number of grounds. For example, Turnovsky
(1981) has derived the result that if agents under-predict changes in
the exchange rate then output will increase with devaluation. On the
other hand, if agents over predict changes in the exchange rate then
output will reduce with devaluation. However, economists such as Calvo
(1983) and Larrian and Sachs (1986) have supported the standard result
by arguing that the stability of the system is sufficient to rule out
perverse outcomes of devaluation. Buffie (1986), on the other hand, has
derived the result that for stable economies, devaluation mayor may not
increase output. However, Buffie shows that if the production function
is separable between primary factors and the imported input then
devaluation will increase employment. Lai and Chang (1989) have derived
the result that currency devaluation has a negative impact on output if
workers are free from money illusion. Gylfason and Schmid (1983), report
a similar result: if the real wage is assumed to be constant then
devaluation contracts the real income.
Dynamic Properties of an Aggregate Econometric Model of
Pakistan's Economy
Authors: Ahmed Ather Maqsood , Rafiq Muhammad , Iqbal M. Shahid
Published: August 2018

The use of econometric models for policy planning and
decision-making is wide-spread in many developed as well as developing
countries. One of the most vexing problems of such an exercise is to
construct a model that could adequately reproduce the dynamic behaviour
of an economy. The recent experience in modelling has shown that policy
objectives could be achieved only by recognising the complex
relationship between real and monetary variables. Such an integrated
framework .could be used not only to compute impact and dynamic
multipliers and to determine the stability of the model, but also to
evaluate the relative importance offiscal and monetary policies. In the
present paper, this objective is achieved by constructing a linear yet
dynamic macro-econometric model of Pakistan's economy.' This model
although has a Keynesian structure, but it could easily and meaningfully
be solved to determine the values of endogenous variables especially
income in terms of pure exogenous variables. In order to establish the
dynamic stability of the model, we seek to present the "necessary
conditions" that will depend not only on the structure of the model, but
also on the estimated paramters of structural equations. After
establishing the stability of the model, the next step is policy
evaluation. In this regard the impact and the dynamic multipliers will
be computed. These multipliers will then be used to assess the relative
importance of fiscal and monetary policy variables on income and other
dependent variables such as consumption and investment. The time period
under consideration ranges between 1959-60 and 1987-88 which includes
dramatic events like two wars with India, nationalisation, the oil price
hike, recession and floods.
An Analysis of Monetary Policy in Controlling the Monetary Assets
in Pakistan: A Money Multiplier Approach (1971-72 to 1989-90)
Authors: Abbas Kalbe , Qasim Muhammad Ali
Published: August 2018

Besides fiscal policy, monetary policy is designed to attain
sustained economic growth and to contain inflation within manageable
limits. Usually monetary policy is pursued through variations in money
supply in accordance with the requirement of output level and employment
on one hand and price stability on the other. In Pakistan monetary
policy is formulated to control total monetary assets keeping in view
the projected growth rate of GDP, monetisation of the economy and the
likely surplus or deficit in the country's international account. Once
the safe limit of total monetary assets is determined it is then
realised through different indirect measures, namely, the liquidity
ratio, reserve requirements and the bank rate. l?rior to 1972 credit was
controlled by these indirect measures. However, the separation of the
Eastern wing and the two oil shocks of the early 1970's indicated the
shortcomings of indirect methods when they failed to cope with the new
situation. The open market operation could not be materialised due to
marginal or nominal demand of government securities. The credit
budgeting measure was introduced in 1972, replacing the old one, wherein
the principal instrument is the credit ceiling for the commercial banks
and they are bound to allocate credit to the priority sectors as
determined by the government. Credit budgeting has proved to be an
effective instrument of monetary policy both as a means of providing
necessary funds for the development process and for curbing the
increasing trends in prices. The credit ceiling with· its beneficial
effects also has some adverse effects for example, commercial banks have
little incentive in mobilising deposits, and their ability to respond to
demand becomes extremely limited. The response of the public and
commercial banks, to a certain extent, depend upon the credit ceilings
determined by the monetary authority.
An Indirect View of the Fertility Changes in Pakistan
Authors: Afzal Mohammad , Kayani M. Framurz Khan , Mohammad Ali
Published: August 2018

An effort has been made in this paper to arrive at some
indirect assessment of the levels of birth rates from the same survey
data sources. The basis for this approach is the internal consistency of
the relevant data.! Ideally, in a series of repeated surveys the
variations ih the estimated yearly rates should be only due to the
sampling and non-sampling errors and not due to changes in the numerator
or the denominator resulting from variations in the procedures of
measurement. In other words, such changes if any, should not result in
any erratic variations between the estimates of one series to the other,
otherwise they may lead to some erroneous inference about the levels and
trends. Let us now have a look at the crude birth and death rates for
Pakistan, as reported from different surveys. From Table 1 it is clearly
evident that the crude birth rate as reported from yearly repeated
surveys (pGE, PGS and PDS series), show erratic up and down movements
over the years 1962-65 through 1988, with the level of the rate
remaining over 40 [Farooqui and Farooq (1971); Government of Pakistan
(1973, 1973a, 1974, 1974a, 1981, 1983, 1983a, 1984, 1984a, 1990)]. The
corresponding crude death rates also show year to year variations but in
their case a net decline of 4.1 is evident over the same period. Table 1
also shows that the estimates of Crude Birth Rate (CBR) reported by 1975
Pakistan Fertility Survey (PFS), 1984-85 Pakistan Contraceptive
Prevalence Survey (PCPS) and 1990-91 Pakistan Demographic and Health
Survey (PDHS) show a declining trend [Government of Pakistan (1976,
1986); NIPS (1992»). Moreover the levels of CBR given by these types of
one-time surveys are reported to be lower than the rates reported for
the nearest years by the series of yearly repeated surveys. Conducted by
Pakistan Federal Bureau of Statistics.
Foreign Aid, Domestic Savings and Economic Growth (Pakistan: 1960
to 1988)
Authors: Khan Naheed Zia , Rahim Eric
Published: August 2018

One of the core tenets of foreign aid theory, particularly as
encapsulated in the two-gap model, is that the insertion of foreign
resources via free grants, loans, direct investment etc., into a
developing economy sets in motion a causal chain of positive influences
in the following broad mannerl: aid' ~ increase in investible resources
~ increase in domestic investment ~ more rapid rate of economic growth.
Spirited and specific challenges to this approach came from many
critics, supported greatly by a number of broad theoreticaF and
empirical analyses. For a large part of the latter, the available
evidence pointed to a negative relationship between aid and domestic
savings. The evidence was largely based on crosssectional data, 'showing
that, there was, in addition, reason to suggest a negative relationship
between aid and economic growth. 3 The aim of this study is to provide
some quantitative evidence on the relationship between foreign aid,
domestic savings and economic growth for Pakistan. The analysis is
carried out in three parts. Part one contains the methodology and the
description of the data. Part two explores the correlation between aid
and several other explanatory variables with Pakistan's savings rate,
while part three attempts to analyse and explain the regression findings
in terms of the effect of aid on economic growth.
Research on Poverty Statistics in Pakistan Some Sensitivity
Analyses
Authors: Zaidi M. Asghar , De Vas Klaas
Published: August 2018

In the past, studies on poverty in a developing country like
Pakistan have usually been based on an absolute (e. g. basic needs)
concept of poverty see, e. g., Naseem (1977); Irfan and Amjad (1984);
Ercelawn (1990) and Malik (1992). In this paperl we will state the case
for using relative poverty thresholds, and present poverty statistics
for Pakistan based on data from the Household Income and Expenditure
Survey (1987-88). [Government of Pakistan (1988)]. The paper will also
show the consequences of different choices in the assessment of the
poverty threshold. In particular, instead of using one rather steep
equivalence scale, as is the common practice in most studies, we will
present poverty statistics based on three different -equivalence scales.
The effects of choices with respect to the concept of resources and the
measure of poverty, will also be examined. After a discussion of the
concept of poverty (Section II), we compare the size and composition of
the poor population using three relative poverty lines in Section III.
In Section IV we present a number of sensitivity analyses, which show
the effects of using different equivalence scales, using different
indicators of household resources (income or total expenditures), and
using measures of poverty different from the Head-count measure. The
poverty incidence differentiated according to household characteristics
is further analysed by means of cross-classification and logit analysis
in Section V. Section VI presents some general conclusions.
Non-farm Income and Inequality in Rural Pakistan
Authors: Adams, Jr. Richard H.
Published: August 2018

In the past many researchers and policy-makers have viewed the
rural economy of the Third World as being synonymous with agriculture.
According to this view, rural households receive the bulk of their
income from the production and sale of crops. Within the past few years
this view has begun to change. There is now a growing recognition that
the rural non-farm sector-which includes such diverse activities as
government, commerce, and services-also plays a vital role in the
economies of many rural Third World households. Household budget surveys
in developing countries suggest that non-farm income represents between
13 and 67 percent of total rural household income. I According to these
surveys, the contribution of non-farm income to total rural income is
especially high in those areas where unfavourable labour-to-Iand ratios
constrain / income-earning opportunities in agriculture. Despite the
growing attention being focused on non-farm income, there is still no
general agreement about the impact of this income source on poverty and
income distribution. On the one hand, studies by Chinn (1979) and Ho
(1979) in Taiwan indicate that non-farm income reduces rural income
inequality. On the other hand, studies by Reardon, Delgado and Matlon
(1992) in Burkina Faso, and Collier, Radwan and Wangwe (1986) in
Tanzania find that non-farm income has a negative impact on rural income
distribution.
Credit Worthiness of Poor Women: A Comparison of Some Minimalist
Credit Programmes in Asia: A Preliminary Analysis
Authors: Mohiuddin Yasmeen
Published: August 2018

The recognition of credit as a powerful instrument for the
alleviation of poverty in the developing countries has led to a
multitude of programmes on agricultural credit, co-operatives, and
integrated rural development in the past few decades. Agricultural or
land development banks, commercial banks and cooperatives have sought
"small borrowers" in theory but have, on the whole, failed to reach the
poor, particularly women. The loan repayment rates in these programmes
often have been very low which, together with below-market interest
rates imposed by governments, has resulted in the stagnation of most
third world credit institutions aimed at "small borrowers". On the other
hand, innovative Credit Delivery Systems (CDSs) for the poor or "poverty
lending" has been on the increase in many developing countries over the
last two or three decades. In stark contrast to the conventional credit
programmes, these innovative experiments show. extremely high repayment
rates. More importantly, they reveal that the standard stereotypes are
wildly inaccurate: that women are more creditworthy than men and the
poor more creditworthy than the non-poor. These experiments include the
Bedan Kredit Kecamatan (BKK), MBM and YIS programmes in Indonesia,
Grameen Bank and Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee (BRAC) in
Bangladesh, Agha Khan Rural Support Programme (AKRSP) in Pakistan, Self
Employed Women's Association (SEWA) and Working Women's Forum (WWF) in
India, the Kababaihang Barangay of San Miguel, Bulacan (KBB) in the
Philippines, Production Credit for Rural Women (pCRW) in Nepal,
etc.
Growth of Manufacturing Employment in Pakistan: A Comparative
Analysis of Punjab and Sindh (Preliminary Results)
Authors: Akbari Syed Ather Hussain , Riazuddin Riaz
Published: August 2018

Provincial economic disparities in Pakistan are often
discussed in political circles. Recently, these disparities have also
caught the attention of economic planners. I However, very few
professional studies have analysed the issue due to paucity of
inter-provincial data. Moreover, the existing studies base their
analysis on cross-sectional data obtained from various sources and
cannot be used to analyse disparities in economic growth and its
sources.2 The purpose of present paper is to provide an initial
contribution to the analysis of provincial economic changes in Pakistan.
Employment growths in the manufacturing sectors of Punjab and Sindh are
analysed for the period 1980-87. Regional differences in employment
growth are usually attributed to differences in industrial structure and
also to differential impacts of regional-specific influences
(infra-structure, policies, political situation, etc.) that determine
competitiveness of a region. The present study analyses these two
components of growth for Sindh and Punjab in order to explain
differential growth in these provinces. Such an analysis is useful for
provincial planning as it may help plan for a balanced
growth.
Inter-Provincial Migration in Pakistan 1971-1981
Authors: Perveen Azra
Published: August 2018

The process of international and internal migration involving
Pakistan is not a new phenomena as observed in many third world
countries. Helbock (1975) studied life-time migrants in the 12 largest
cities of Pakistan in 1961. He found that on average, about 15 percent
of the residents of these cities had come originally from other
districts, the highest rates in these cities showed 30 percent life-time
migrants, while the lowest showed 5 percent indicating a wide variation
in city growth rate. Irfan (1979) pointed out that internal migration is
becoming increasingly long distance and rural urban in orientation in
Pakistan. Many other scholars have made valuable contributions to the
literature on migration. Details of such studies are found elsewhere
[Farooqui and Rukanuddin (1987); Hussain, Afzal and Syed (1965); Ahmad
and Abbasi (1981); Shah (1986); Naveed-i-Rahat (1981); Usami (1978);
Selier and Nientied (1986); Van Pinxteren (1974)]. Most of the studies
(cited above) on internal migration in Pakistan based on census data
concentrated on volume and direction and some studies based on sample
surveys devoted to patterns and causes of mobility in the country.
Although all of these studies provide useful estimates, none of them
gives a broad analysis of provincial level figures by age and sex
characteristics of the migrants during the intercensal period, which
could be used by the planners, policy-makers and
administrators.
The Demand for Inputs and the Supply of Output in Pakistan:
Estimating a Fixedeffects, Distributed-lag Model for Wheat
Farmers
Authors: Deolallkar Anil B. , Vosti Stephen A .
Published: August 2018

Agricultural growth in Pakistan over the past 3 decades has
been very impressive, averaging 3.3 percent annually over the period
1965-80, and accelerating to 4.3 percent per year over the period
1980-90. But as impressive as these numbers are, questions arise
regarding the success of the agricultural sector in terms of meeting
food and employment needs, the potential for continuing or increasing
growth rates in the future, the likely sources of future agricultural
growth, and the technologies, policies, and institutional arrangements
necessary to achieve that growth. The truth is that agriculture in
general, and food production in particular, have been working hard to
just to keep pace with other sectors and with the food needs of the
domestic population. Agriculture was the slowest growing sector in
Pakistan over the past 30 years, with general economic expansion moving
along at an average of 5.2 percent annually over the 1965-80 period, and
of 6.3 percent per year over the decade of the 1980s. In addition, in
spite of very . substantial production and productivity gains for most
major crops, the average index of food production per capita remained
constant over the 1980-90 period, while the total volume of cereal
imports nearly doubled to over 2,048,000 metric tons [World Development
Report (1992)].
Performance of Groundwater Markets in Pakistan
Authors: Meinzen-Dick Ruth
Published: August 2018

Irrigation provides crucial water for agricultural production
on over 80 percent of the gross cropped area in Pakistan. Most of this
irrigation comes through public canal systems, but groundwater has
become a crucial input, both as a sole source of irrigation and as a
supplement to surface irrigation in canal irrigation commands. However,
ownership of private tubewells is concentrated among large farmers: 70
percent of all tubewells are owned by farmers with over 12.5 acres and
half are owned by farmers with over 25 acres, which seems "to point
toward an adverse effect of private tubewells on income distribution
within agriculture" [World Bank (1984), p. 35]. Institutional
arrangements are needed to spread access to groundwater to other
farmers, to increase agricultural productivity and improve equity in the
use of irrigation water resources without overcapitalisation of
agriculture. Water m~kets provide one of the most promising
institutional mechanisms for increasing access to irrigation from
private groundwater, for providing vertical drainage, and for increasing
the efficiency of water use in irrigation systems see Rosegrant and
Binswanger (1992). While such markets are not formalised or officially
recognised, the sale of water from private tubewells is a growing form
of private irrigation development. I This paper examines the nature and
operation of markets for groundwater in Pakistan. It deals with the
extent of water market development, who participates, and the effect of
purchased irrigation on the productivity of irrigated agriculture. It
concludes with policy issues for improving the performance of water
markets.
Inaugural Address
Authors: Az1z Sartaj
Published: August 2018

Professor Syed Nawab Haider Naqvi, Distinguished Participants,
Ladies and Gentlemen: It is a great privilege for me to inaugurate the
Ninth Annual General Meeting of the Pakistan Society of Development
Economists (PSDE) and exchange ideas with eminent national and
international economists, planners and scholars. It is a source of great
satisfaction to note the contribution of PSDE to enhance knowledge in
the area of economic development in Pakistan and abroad. Since its
formal inception in 1983, the Society has grown in many ways-it has
broadened its scope as well as gained in-depth, and has also attained
the stature of a prestigious international forum, which provides an
opportunity to outstanding scholars, policy-makers and economists to
shed light on new ideas. The Society and its office bearers deserve our
congratulations on conducting their affairs in such a competent and
constructive manner.
Agricultural Productivity Growth in Pakistan and India: A
Comparative Analysis (Distinguishedl Lecture)
Authors: Rosegrant Mark W. , Evenson Robert E.
Published: August 2018

Estimates of partial factor productivity growth for rice and
wheat in India and Pakistan have shown relatively rapid growth in yields
per hectare since adoption of modem rice and wheat varieties began in
the mid-to-Iate 1960s [Byerlee (1990); Rosegrant (1991)]. Yields per
hectare for rice and wheat grew slowly prior to the green revolution,
then increased dramatically (Table 1). In Pakistan, yield growth from
1965 to 1975 was particularly rapid, but declined sharply after that.
Indian yields grew more slowly than in Pakistan in the early green
revolution period, but higher yield growth was sustained in India after
1975.
On Education as a Commodity (The Distinguishedl Lecture)
Authors: Khan M. Ali
Published: August 2018

I have no knowledge of either Sanskrit or Arabic. But I have
done what I could to form a correct estimate of their value. I have
never found one ... who could deny that a single shelf of a good
European library was worth the whole native literature of India and
Arabia. i If truth is not to be found on the shelves of the British
Museum, where, I asked myself, picking up a notebook and a pencil, is
truth.2 Education is a weapon whose effect depends on who holds it in
his hand and who is struck with it.Consider a shop, here and now, which
stocks a finite but very large number of commodities, each of whose
characteristics is known to both the shoppers and the shopkeeper, and
each of whose prices is posted at the shopdoor. Let one of these
cOinmodities be units of undergraduate education, measured in years. The
following scenario, thought-experiment if one prefers, brings out how
the shop functions. I send someone shopping. I give him a slip marked
"five years of undergraduate education." He takes the slip to the
shopkeeper, who.......
Trade and Linkages Using Input-Output Approach: An Empirical Investigation of Bangladesh
Authors: Mustafa K. Mujeri  , Mohammad Alauddin
Published: August 2018

Employing a variant of the open-static Leontief model and a 53-sector input-output table, the paper identifies a variant of the key sectors in the Bangladesh economy in terms of trade linkages. The concepts of gross and net linkages are introduced and the analysis is extended to both current (flow) and capital (stock) accounts. On the gross linkage criterion, only a handfnl of sectors emerge as key sectors with three or more linkages. These sectors are from within the manufacturing and services categories. This is also the case with sectors having two strong linkages. Agricultural sectors do not feature at all. A transition from gross to net linkages changes the rankings quite significantly. Most agricultural sectors show two strong linkages in the flow account. The findings suggest that Bangladeshi export sector· is typically undiversified in that it relies heavily on agriculture and related industries, with jute and jute textiles accounting for over 70 percent of net export earnings. Not surprisingly, most sectors in the industrial complex are net importers and the domestic production of industrial goods is highly importintensive.
Market Structure and Inter-industry Profit Differences in
Taiwan
Authors: Lai Cheng-Chung
Published: August 2018

A high degree of openness and labour-intensive production are
the two main features of Taiwan's manufacturing sector. This study uses
the export/sales ratio and the KIL ratio to divide the sector into two
groups: (1) the export-oriented and domestic market-oriented industries,
and (2) the capital-intensive and labour-intensive industries. The Chow
test confirmed the two-regime hypothesis for both the groups, supporting
the validity of our dualistic analysis. Using 1986 census data, the
distribution of profit rates in the two groups are compared. The major
determinants of inter-industry profit differences are the domestic sales
ratio and the capital/output ratio; the other variables have either
little impact or generate unsystematic effects.
Long-term Development of Small-scale Industries in Relation to
Economic Development: Looking for General Propositions
Authors: Tambunan Tulus
Published: August 2018

The growing attention, in literature on economic development,
towards the role of Small-scale Industries (SSls) within the economy of
the less developed countries (LDCs), is strongly associated with the
recognised current economic and social problems of continuing imbalance
in the labour market leading to high unemployment rates, the persistence
of large intra- and inter-regional socio-economic inequalities; and the
consolidation of extremely concentrated patterns of urbanisation, facing
these countries. On the other hand, there is the notion stating that the
importance of SSls decreases with the course of economic development.
The available empirical evidence on this issue diverges significantly
from the afore-mentioned notion. In the background of this contradictory
evidence, the paper aimed to discuss this issue and arrive at some
general conclusions which would help in deriving a pattern from the
available studies and evidence on the issue under reference. The
conclusion of the paper suggests that no matter how far a country has
developed, but as long as domestic problems of high rates of
unemployment, mass poverty or unequal distribution of income exist, SSls
will continue to play an important role as a 'last resort' for the poor
of the country.
Dennis Kux. Estranged Democracies: India and the United States
1941-1991. New Delhi: Sage Publications. 1993. Hardbound. Indian Rupees
375.00.
Authors: Sarmad Khwaja
Published: August 2018

Cold war US-Soviet relations were characterised by a large gap
between hostile talk and cautious action, though both countries backed
and armed rival sides in wars in the third world. During the cold war US
foreign policy was detennined by the sole objective of containing Soviet
territorial and ideological 'expansionism'. This was also the defining
element in US-Indian subcontinent relations in the coldwar period. Thus
the main reason for the estrangement in US-India relations is not hard
to discern-while the US aggressively sought partners in its anti-Soviet
alliance system, India nurtured its economic and military supplies
relationship with the Soviet Union. Furthermore, while there persisted a
fundamental conflict between Pakistan and India over the Kashmir issue,
Pakistan participated in the US sponsored anti-Soviet alliance system
and gained from US military and economic assistance.
Syed Nawab Haider Naqvi. Development Economics: A New Paradigm,
New Delhi: Sage Publications, 1993, 208 pages, Indian Rs 200.00.
Authors: Ahmed Rafiq
Published: August 2018

With his well-known innovative intellectual skills, Syed Nawab
Haider Naqvi has converted his several Presidential Addresses given at
the Annual General Meetings of the Pakistan Society of Development
Economists into a succinct and stimulating book. With its publication,
Dr Naqvi has placed students of development economics in his debt for a
lucid and systematic treatment of a subject which mainstream economists
regard as a dying species, while the more knowledgeable ones, agreeing
with Dr Naqvi, see it as very much alive though in need of
revitalisation. Development economics, as a new paradigm or a distinct
sub-discipline of economics, is only half-a-century old. The end of the
Second World War saw the emergence of a new, independent but
underdeveloped world with high expectations of quick prosperity. It was
soon discovered, however, that mainstream economics was either neutral
or unwilling to offer direct solutions to the serious problems that
developing economies faced, particularly with regard to questions of
alleviating widespread poverty and removing the abominably high income
and wealth inequalities. It is against this background that development
themes attracted the special attention of a large body of economists,
who not only tried to analyse such themes theoretically with the help of
the existing as well as new economic postulates but also offered vital
remedies to solve the practical problems of under-development. In this
way, development economics emerged as perhaps the best example of a
synthesis between the positive and the normative aspects.
Can Devaluation Cause Perverse Effects if the Macroeconomy is
Stable?
Authors: Ali Syed Zahid , Scartil W. M.
Published: August 2018

The theoretical literature on devaluation has involved an
appeal to the Correspondence Principle for many years. In the early
work, it was noted that a devaluation would improye the trade balance
only if the Marshall-Lerner condition held, and this restriction was
also necessary and sufficient for stability in the foreign exchange
market. Thus, the presumption of economic stability precluded the
perverse outcome. More recently, analysts have viewed this early work as
limited in that it considered only the aggregate demand effects of the
exchange rate, and it did not consider more general specifications of
dynamics. The more recent work for example, Buffie (1986) and Lizondo
and Montiel (1989) involves intermediate imports and a fully specified
aggregate supply sector, and this work recognises that there are at
least two kinds of perverse results that can follow from devaluation:
the balance of payments can worsen, and the level of employment can
fall. (This latter outcome is the so-called contractionary devaluation
possibility.)
Framework for Deriving Real Exchange Rates
Authors: Afridi Usman A. , Siddiqui Rehana
Published: August 2018

In the last conference we presented a study on Purchasing
Power Parity (PPP) and Real Exchange Rates (RER). One of the conclusions
we reached was that a PPP-based measure of the RER did not give
sufficient insight into the structural problems underlying
disequilibrium situation for Real Exchange Rates. We present a review of
recent studies which model the path of Real Exchange Rates determined by
sets of determinants. These determinants are usually difficult to
quantify and are often represented by proxies. We have reservations
about both the choice of some determinants and also appropriativeness of
the proxies used to represent them. The purpose of this paper is to
critically evaluate frameworks for determining real exchange rates in
developing countries. We would suggest a basis for estimation of RER and
its equilibrium path.
The Impact of the Uruguay Round on World Economy
Authors: Khan Akhtar Hasan
Published: August 2018

International trade as an engine for economic growth is an
accepted proposition in modern economic literature. Statistical and
econometric analysis of crosssection and time-series data of the growth
in exports and growth in GOP shows a very high correlation between the
two. Normally growth in exports is twice or more than the growth in GOP
for most fast-growing economies particularly the East Asian Tigers.
There is hardly any country which over a decade has had a growth in GOP
higher than the average rate of growth of exports in that decade. Export
led growth has been vindicated by one economy after another specially in
East Asia. It is therefore of great importance that the international
trading system allows the free flow of goods in order to promote the
growth of the world economy as a whole. After the Second World War,
plans were drawn up for an International Trade Organisation (ITO) at
Havana but when the US Congress declined to approve it, it was dropped.
The demise of the ITO, however did not do away with the need for an
international organisation to deal with negotiations for reducing tariff
and non-tariff barriers to international trade. Twenty-three nations
agreed to continue extensive tariff negotiations for trade concessions
at Geneva which were incorporated in a General Agreement on Tariffs and
Trade (GATT). GATT has provided a permanent platform for reducing trade
barriers. The fundamental objective of GATT is to achieve free trade
through reduction in tariff and non-tariff barriers on the basis of
non-discrimination, reciprocity and national
treatment.................
Comparative Study of Insurance and Takafol (Islamic
Insurance)
Authors: Anwar Muhammad
Published: August 2018

Ibn Abidin (1784-1836) was the first scholar in the Muslim
world to discuss the meaning and legal character of insurance.1
Islamicity of insurance has been under discussion since then. Opinions
regarding legitimacy, adoption, and adaptability of insurance are
numerous. Recently, however, a consensus was emerging for adapting
insurance in the name of takafol and solidarity. As a result, several
Islamic takafols and solidarity companies have been established since
1979. During the last decade the Council of Islamic Ideology Pakistan
(ClIP) reviewed the operations of the existing takafols in order to find
a suitable model for Pakistan.2 While declaring all of them incompatible
with the injunctions of Islam, the ClIP proposed its own model of
takafol, instead. Its rejection of existing takafols is a little
paradoxical since the operations of all the takafols are claimed to be
compatible with the Shariah. Each takafol guarantees Shariah
compatibility of its operations by sUbjecting itself to the dictates of
a Shariah Supervisory Board, which are empowered to review the company's
practices, contracts, transactions and operations. This paper attempts
to delineate the points of contact and convergence between insurance and
takafol, and to .make recommendations for possible improvement in the
takafol concept. The study is organised as follows: Islamic debate on
insurance, with special reference to its application to takafols, is
reviewed in Section II. Pertinent operational features of takafols are
compared with insurance in Section III. The ClIP model is examined in
Section IV. The final section features proposals meant to augment the
conformity of takafol with the principles of Shariah.