bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) polarization characteristics and correction algorithm
Authors: Choi Haklim , Liu Xiong , Jeong Ukkyo , Chong Heesung , Kim Jhoon , Ahn Myung Hwan , Ko Dai Ho , Lee Dong-Won , Moon Kyung-Jung , Lee Kwang-Mog
Published: January 2024

Abstract. The Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS) is the first geostationary earth orbit (GEO) environmental instrument, onboard the Geostationary Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite–2B (GEO-KOMPSAT-2B) launched on 19 February 2020, and is measuring reflected radiance from the earth's surface and atmosphere system in the range of 300–500 nm in the ultraviolet–visible (UV–Vis) region. The radiometric response of a satellite sensor that measures the UV–Vis wavelength region can depend on the polarization states of the incoming light. To reduce the sensitivity due to polarization, many current low earth orbit (LEO) satellites are equipped with a scrambler to depolarize the signals or a polarization measurement device (PMD) that simultaneously measures the polarization state of the atmosphere, then utilizes it for a polarization correction. However, a novel polarization correction algorithm is required since GEMS does not have a scrambler or a PMD. Therefore, this study aims to improve the radiometric accuracy of GEMS by developing a polarization correction algorithm optimized for GEMS that simultaneously considers the atmosphere's polarization state and the instrument's polarization sensitivity characteristics. The polarization factor and axis were derived by the preflight test on the ground as a function of wavelengths, showing a polarization sensitivity of more than 2 % at some specific wavelengths. The polarization states of the atmosphere are configured as a look-up table (LUT) using the Vector Linearized Discrete Ordinate Radiative-Transfer model (VLIDORT). Depending on the observation geometry and atmospheric conditions, the observed radiance spectrum can include a polarization error of 2 %. The performance of the proposed GEMS polarization algorithm was assessed using synthetic data, and the errors due to polarization were found to be larger in clear regions than in cloudy regions. After the polarization correction, polarization errors were reduced close to zero for almost all wavelengths, including the wavelength regions with high peaks and curvatures in the GEMS polarization factor, which sufficiently demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed polarization correction algorithm. From the actual observation data after the launch of GEMS, the diurnal variation for the spatial distribution of polarization error was confirmed to be minimum at noon and maximum at sunrise/sunset. This can be used to improve the quality of GEMS measurements, the first geostationary environmental satellite, and then contribute to the retrieved accuracy of various Level-2 products, such as trace gases and aerosols in the atmosphere.
Starkniederschläge und Überschwemmungen in Berlin im Klimaänderungsszenario
Authors: Nissen Katrin , Tügel Franziska , Fauer Felix , Rust Henning , Ulbrich Uwe , Hinkelmann Reinhard , Feldmann Hendrik , Hundhausen Marie , Pinto Joaquim
Published: January 2024

In dieser Studie untersuchen wir die Auswirkungen des anthropogenen Klimawandels auf Starkniederschlagsereignisse und städtische Überflutungen in Berlin. Basis für die Untersuchung sind konvektionsauflösende Regionalsimulationen mit dem COSMO model in CLimate Mode (CCLM) mit einer Gitterweite von 3 km. Die Antriebsdaten stammen von 2 verschiedenen CMIP6 Globalsimulationen (MIROC6 und EC-Earth3-Veg), die selber jeweils mit historischen und SSP370 Treibhausgaskonzentration angetrieben wurden.     Der Zusammenhang zwischen Dauer, Intensität und Häufigkeit für den simulierten Niederschlag wurde mit Hilfe der dauerabhängigen allgemeinen Extremwertverteilung ermittelt. Die daraus resultierenden Kurven sind auch unter dem Namen IDF (Intensity-Duration-Frequency) Kurven bekannt. Der Vergleich zwischen  den IDF Kurven bei unterschiedlichen Stufen der globalen Erwärmung zeigt, dass Starkniederschläge im Klimaänderungsszenario mit der Zunahme der anthropogenen Erwärmung für alle untersuchten Dauerstufen zwischen einer Stunde und 5 Tagen stärker ausfallen und häufiger auftreten. So treten in den Simulationen  beispielsweise stündliche Ereignisse mit einer durchschnittlichen Auftrittshäufigkeit von 10 Jahren bezogen auf den Zeitraum 1961-1990 gegen Ende des 21. Jahrhunderts 2 bis 3 mal so häufig auf. 
Sofern keine Anpassungsmaßnahmen erfolgen, lässt dies auch Auswirkungen auf die Stärke und Wahrscheinlichkeit für städtische Überflutungen erwarten. Üblicherweise werden Gefahren- und Risikokarten auf Basis statistische Niederschlagsereignisse erstellt. Analog verwenden wir die simulierten statistischen Niederschlagsereignisse als Eingangsdaten für hydro-numerische Simulationen. Die Modellierung erfolgt mit dem robusten 2D Flachwassermodell hms++. Wir zeigen Änderungen der Wassertiefe, Fließgeschwindigkeiten und Abflüsse. 
Integrierte Szenarienstudie zum Wasser-Energie-Nahrung-Ökosystem-Nexus im Donaueinzugsgebiet am Beispiel der Maisbewässerung
Authors: Probst Elisabeth , Fader Marianela , Mauser Wolfram
Published: January 2024

Der Wasser-Energie-Nahrung-Ökosystem-Nexus ist ein interdisziplinärer Ansatz, der die enge Verknüpfung von Wasser, Energieproduktion, Landwirtschaft und Ökosystemen erforscht. Zur Unterstützung der Ziele für Nachhaltige Entwicklung der Vereinten Nationen (UN Sustainable Development Goals, SDGs), die vielfach direkte oder indirekte Bezüge zu Wasser aufweisen, ist eine integrative Betrachtung des Nexus für eine ausgewogene und umweltverträgliche Nutzung von Wasserressourcen unerlässlich.
Die Landwirtschaft als wasserintensivster Sektor dominiert die globale Süßwasserentnahme. Im Donaueinzugsgebiet führen heterogene klimatische Bedingungen zu einer heterogenen Wasserverfügbarkeit und zu einem Wettbewerb um gemeinsame Wasserressourcen zwischen verschiedenen Sektoren sowie zwischen flussaufwärts und flussabwärts gelegenen Ländern. Eine Ausweitung der landwirtschaftlichen Bewässerung im Donaueinzugsgebiet kann die Wasserkonkurrenz im Nexus verschärfen.
Mit dem prozessbasierten hydro-agroökologischen Modell PROMET simulieren wir Szenarien mit großflächiger Maisbewässerung auf der aktuellen Maisanbaufläche im Donaueinzugsgebiet, wobei das Bewässerungswasser aus Flüssen entnommen wird. Dabei analysieren wir die Auswirkungen auf den Ertrag und die Wassernutzungseffizienz von Mais, auf den Abfluss in den Flüssen und auf die Energieerzeugung in stromabwärts gelegenen Wasserkraftwerken.
Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Maisbewässerung den Abfluss teilweise drastisch reduziert, zur Verletzung ökologischer Mindestabflüsse führt und damit schwerwiegende Folgen für die Süßwasserökologie flussabwärts haben kann. Selbst bei Einhaltung der ökologischen Mindestabflüsse sind bei bewässertem Mais beträchtliche Ertragssteigerungen gegenüber dem Regenfeldbau zu erwarten. Die Energieerzeugung aus Wasserkraft sinkt durch die Abflussreduzierung nur geringfügig. Der zusätzliche finanzielle Umsatz in der Landwirtschaft durch die Maisbewässerung überwiegt die Umsatzverluste in der Wasserkraft deutlich. Zusätzlich eröffnet die Bewässerung ein erhebliches Einsparpotenzial der landwirtschaftlichen Fläche, da die derzeitige Maisproduktion im Donaueinzugsgebiet auf weniger als der Hälfte der produktivsten Maisanbaufläche durch Bewässerung gedeckt und die restliche Fläche der Natur überlassen werden kann.
Unsere Ergebnisse verdeutlichen, dass eine verbesserte Wassernutzungseffizienz essentiell ist, um die Wasserkonkurrenz im Nexus zu reduzieren und ein nachhaltiges Nexus-Management im Donaueinzugsgebiet zu ermöglichen. Dies ist von zunehmender Bedeutung angesichts der erwarteten Verschärfung der Wasserkonkurrenz durch die projizierte zunehmende Wasserknappheit infolge des Klimawandels.
Scientific attribution matters: Learning about extreme weather event attribution increases climate change engagement
Authors: Undorf Sabine , Undorf Monika
Published: January 2024

Event attribution science quantifies the influence of anthropogenic climate change on the occurrence of extreme weather events. One incentive for such research is an assumed motivational effect on people’s climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts, but little empirical evidence exists regarding this. While subjective attribution has been shown to matter, the few studies concerned with scientific attribution were gathered in societies polarised above average. Moreover, scientists and stakeholders have suggested that intellectual and communicative obstacles hinder motivational effects. They also questioned any effect on adaptation (rather than mitigation) intentions.
Here, we present results using the high-impact flood in July 2021 in Germany to empirically test the motivational effect of scientific attribution on mitigation and adaptation intentions. Data from a nationally representative sample and oversamples from the two flood-affected federal states in a control (n=663) and an attribution (n=611) group were collected in March 2022. Both groups learned about the consequences and immediate causes of the flood. The attribution group additionally learned about the World Weather Attribution's result that climate change to date had made the associated heavy rainfall more likely and more intense and that this influence would increase further in future. Groups did not differ in socioeconomic factors; mediation analyses and ordinary least squares linear regressions were applied.
Results showed that learning about event attribution results increased people’s subjective attribution of the event to climate change and their mitigation and adaptation intentions. It also increased their belief that the climate is changing and that this is due to human activities. Subjective attribution, but not personal flooding experience, mediated these effects. The effect on adaptation but not mitigation intentions was positively related to low education and to far-right political orientation. We set the results in the context of related evidence, highlight methodological caveats, and discuss implications for climate/impact attribution science.
Das Potential wiedervernäßter Moore als natürliche CO2-Senke: aktuelle Ergebnisse und Forschung am Beispiel eines Langzeitbeobachtungsstandortes in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern
Authors: Gottschalk Pia , Kalhori Aram , Wille Christian , Sachs Torsten
Published: January 2024

Seit 2013 werden am wiedervernäßten Moorstandort Zarnekow in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern unter Verwendung der Eddy-Kovarianz-Methode kontinuierlich CO2- und CH4-Emissionen gemessen. Der Standort wurde 2004/2005 wiedervernäßt und ist aufgrund des historischen Moorbodenverlustes durch Drainage und Bewirtschaftung bis heute größtenteils überflutet. Die hochaufgelöste Messzeitreihe erlaubt die umfassende Untersuchung der Kohlenstoff-Emissionsdynamik und deren natürlicher Treiber. Der Einfluss der sich dynamisch verändernden Vegetation sowie der meteorologischen Schwankungen wird an den variablen C-Emissionen deutlich. Obwohl die Wiedervernässung bereits 18 Jahre zurückliegt, hat das System noch nicht in ein neues Gleichgewicht zurückgefunden. Erst im Jahr 2019 konnte zum ersten Mal eine annuelle netto-CO2 Aufnahme nachgewiesen werden, nach einem langjährigen Trend abnehmender CO2-Verluste. Die Methanemissionen zeigen einen gering abnehmenden Trend, verbleiben aber insgesamt auf einem relativ hohen Niveau. Anhand dieses Standortes werden die Unsicherheiten der allgemeinen Moor-Emissionsquantifizierung nach IPCC vorgestellt, der Einfluss klimatologischer Extremereignisse (Sommertrockenheit 2018) auf die C-Emissionen, als auch die gesamte Strahlungsantriebswirkung dieser Wiedervernässungmaßnahme diskutiert.
Informationen und Daten zu klimawandelbedingten Änderungen der Hydrodynamik an der deutschen Küste aus dem DAS-Basisdienst "Klima und Wasser"
Authors: Rasquin Caroline , Seiffert Rita , Ehlers Birte-Marie , Janssen Frank
Published: January 2024

Im Rahmen des DAS-Basisdienstes "Klima und Wasser" werden qualitätsgesicherte Daten zu den Auswirkungen des Klimawandels an der deutschen Küste erstellt und bereitgestellt. Die Daten dienen als Grundlage für die Beratung zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel, z.B. bei der Wasserstraßen- und Hafeninfrastruktur.Durch den klimawandelbedingten Meeresspiegelanstieg steigen die Wasserstände an den deutschen Küsten. Dies führt unter anderem zu höheren Wasserständen bei Sturmfluten. Aber auch veränderte meteorologische Randbedingungen wirken sich auf Nord- und Ostsee aus. Hierfür werden die globalen Klimaprojektionen mit Hilfe eines regionalen Nord-/Ostseemodells heruntergebrochen.Insbesondere in der flachen Deutschen Bucht, die durch ausgedehnte Wattflächen gekennzeichnet ist, sowie in den angrenzenden Ästuaren (den tidebeeinflussten Flussmündungsbereichen) beeinflusst die erhöhte Wassertiefe aber auch die Tidedynamik. Beispielsweise können sich die Strömungsgeschwindigkeiten verstärken oder abschwächen, der Tidehub kann sich vergrößern und die Salzintrusion in den Ästuaren kann sich verändern. Ein Aufwachsen der Wattflächen mit steigendem Meeresspiegel kann einigen Auswirkungen entgegenwirken. Inwieweit die Wattflächen mit dem beschleunigten Meeresspiegel mitwachsen, ist ungewiss.Diese möglichen Veränderungen an der Küste und in den Ästuaren werden mit Hilfe regionaler und lokaler hochauflösender hydrodynamisch-numerischer Modellierung in der Deutschen Bucht und den Ästuaren von Ems, Jade-Weser und Elbe betrachtet. Dazu werden verschiedene Klimaprojektionen sowie Sensitivitätsstudien mit Meeresspiegelanstieg, unterschiedlichen Abflussbedingungen sowie verschiedenen Wattwachstumsszenarien durchgeführt und anwendungsbezogene Kennwerte analysiert.Das Poster gibt einen Überblick über die verwendeten Modelle, die verfügbaren Ergebnisdatensätze und deren Anwendungsmöglichkeiten.
GNSS Precipitable Water Vapor for Climate Monitoring
Authors: Wickert Jens , Dick Galina , Zus Florian , Männel Benjamin , Bradke Markus
Published: January 2024

Water vapour is under-sampled in the current climate-observing systems and obtaining and exploiting more high-quality humidity observations is essential for climate monitoring. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) is an established observing system for atmospheric water vapour with high spatiotemporal resolution for climate research.
Established in 2006, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Reference Upper-Air Network (GRUAN), is an international reference observing network of sites measuring essential climate variables above the Earth's surface. Currently, this network comprises more than 30 reference sites worldwide, designed to detect long-term trends of key climate variables such as temperature and humidity in the upper atmosphere. GRUAN observations are required to be of reference quality, with known biases removed and with an associated uncertainty value, based on thorough characterization of all sources of measurement. In support of these goals, GNSS precipitable water (GNSS-PW) measurement has been included as a priority one measurement of the essential climate variable water vapor.
GFZ contributes to GRUAN with its expertise in processing of ground-based GNSS network data to generate precise PW products. GFZ hosts a central processing facility for the GNSS data and is responsible for the installation of GNSS hardware, data transfer, processing and archiving, as well as derivation of GNSS-PW products according to GRUAN requirements including PW uncertainty estimation. Currently more than a half of the GRUAN sites are equipped with GNSS receivers. GNSS-PW products for GRUAN and the results of validation studies will be presented.
Analyse des Langzeitverhaltens der Schneedecke in Deutschland von 1950-202
Authors: Drüke Markus , Schneider Gerold , Castino Fabiana , Machui-Schwanitz Grit , Wichura Bodo , Böhm Uwe
Published: January 2024

Langzeituntersuchungen der Schneebedingungen verdienen besondere Aufmerksamkeit, da infolge von Klimaveränderungen auch Änderungen in der Häufigkeit von Schneebedeckung erwartet werden. Veränderungen im Schneebedeckungsregime und seinen Parametern haben nachhaltige Auswirkungen auf den Wasserhaushalt (Grundwasserneubildung) und das Abflussmuster (Hochwasserbildung). Die Schneebedeckung dient als sensibler Indikator für den Klimawandel, und eine langfristige Analyse hilft dabei, die Auswirkungen des Klimawandels zu verstehen und sich besser darauf vorzubereiten. Hier zeigen wir eine umfassende Analyse des Langzeitverhaltens der Schneebedeckung in Deutschland von 1950 bis 2020. Auf der Grundlage täglicher Messdaten des DWD-Messnetzes im Zeitraum September bis Mai führen wir eine umfassende Untersuchung durch, um Trends, regionale Muster und Extremereignisse zu identifizieren. Insgesamt verwenden wir 5501 Schneehöhenzeitreihen in Deutschland und weitere 500 aus benachbarten Ländern für die Analyse. Alle Daten werden auf Qualität und Homogenität getestet und anschließend mithilfe eines Regionalisierungsalgorithmus (basierend auf der Optimalen Interpolation) auf ein Raster von 1x1 km² für ganz Deutschland interpoliert. Wir analysieren die Daten u.a. hinsichtlich Parameter wie Schneebedeckungsdauer, Schneebedeckungsanfangs- und -enddaten, Dauer der längsten Schneebedeckungsperiode (Winterdecke), Datum der maximalen Schneebedeckungshöhe, Beständigkeit der Schneebedeckung und Erhaltung der Winterdecke. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen durchweg einen Rückgang (negativen Trend) der Schneebedeckung in der Region. Für verschiedene Parameter (einschließlich Schneebedeckungsdauer und Winterdeckungsdauer) ist jedoch mit zunehmender Geländehöhe eine Abschwächung des negativen Trends bis hin zu einer Trendumkehr in Kamm- und Gipfellagen zu beobachten. Das Trendverhalten der Schneebedeckung kann durch Veränderungen wichtiger meteorologischer Größen erklärt werden. Diese Studie trägt dazu bei, das Verständnis des Schneeklimas in Deutschland zu vertiefen und bietet eine solide Grundlage für zukünftige Forschung und Entscheidungsfindung im Bereich des Schneemanagements.
Detection of terrestrial organic matter using ancient DNA from marine sediments by trnL metabarcoding
Authors: Schmidt Hannah , Weiß Josefine , Stoof-Leichsenring Kathleen , Lembke-Jene Lester , Herzschuh Ulrike
Published: January 2024

Sedimentary ancient DNA (sedaDNA) extracted from sediment cores is more frequently used to reconstruct past ecosystems and their biodiversity. When reconstructing past vegetation components, cores are most often taken within terrestrial and lake systems. Research on marine environments looking at the terrestrial input has so far been frequently based on biogeochemical analyses. While studies looking into marine eukaryotes, especially diatoms, have been frequently conducted, it is unknown whether or not terrestrial plant sedaDNA from marine sediments can be used to reconstruct past ecosystems and the prevailing conditions characterizing the surrounding areas as successfully. Here, sedaDNA was extracted from 18 samples taken from the sediment core SO202-18-6 from the Bering Slope within the Bering Sea, representing the past drainage basin of the Yukon River. The selected samples were dated based on previously published age models and cover the Late Deglaciation to the early Holocene. Via metabarcoding, the short P6 loop of the chloroplast trnL (UAA) intron, a barcode unique in terrestrial plant DNA, was amplified and sequenced using HTS. Throughout the sediment record, the Yukon River vegetation was dominated by Salicaceae. Rosaceae contributed a further significant part to the identified vegetation. While their trends throughout time are consistent, an exception is found within the colder Younger Dryas, in which Rosaceae increases at the expense of Salicaceae. While further taxa are recorded at low abundances, a stable record is found to have characterized the Yukon River vegetation within the Late Deglaciation based on the two dominating taxa, indicating ecological stability, even though major climatic shifts took place since the LGM. Thus, this study provides a first look into using sedaDNA as a tool for reconstructing past terrestrial ecosystems derived from a marine sediment core and based on a riverine input source. 
ca-ci-plots - Visualisierung von Langzeitstress zur Indikation der Waldgesundheit auf Basis von Kohlenstoffisotopen in Baumjahrringen
Authors: Helle Gerhard , Heinrich Ingo , Schleser Gerhard , Schwabe Matthias
Published: January 2024

Seit dem „Waldsterben“ der 1980er Jahre wird die Gesundheit der Wälder durch Europaweit gestartete Monitoringprogramme eng überwacht. Das damals von manchen Wissenschaftlern und Medien prognostizierte weitflächige Waldsterben blieb allerdings aus. Heute scheinen die deutschen Wälder, von Klimaerwärmung und Dürren besonders geschwächt, dagegen großflächig gefährdet zu sein, wie sich vor allem in den deutschen Mittelgebirgen zeigt.
Neben den klassischen Methoden des Waldzustandsmonitoring werden in jüngerer Zeit auch Methoden der Fernerkundung zur großräumigen Bewertung von Waldgesundheit angewendet. Analysen von Baumjahrringen zur Erfassung von Langzeittrends spielen bei der Beurteilung der Waldgesundheit bislang eine nachrangige Rolle, da die Jahrringbreite ein eher unspezifischer Parameter ist und biochemische Analysen wie zum Beispiel Isotopen-Untersuchungen von Jahrringen bislang als zeitaufwendige und teure Methode gesehen wird, deren Daten nur von Experten zu interpretieren sind. Nichtsdestotrotz sind Jahrringisotopenanalysen sehr gute Indikatoren für die Fitness von Bäumen und werden in jüngeren Publikationen zur regulären Anwendung in Waldmonitoringprogrammen vorgeschlagen. Wir stellen einen neuartigen visuellen Ansatz, sogenannte ca-ci-plots, zur vereinfachten Darstellung und Auswertung von, auf Kohlenstoffisotopenverhältnissen (13C/12C) in Jahrringen basierenden, Zeitreihen vor. Sie sind ein Spiegel des CO2- und H2O-Gaswechsels während der Photosynthese. Kohlenstoffisotope in Jahrringen sind technisch relativ einfach zu bestimmen und ermöglichen eine jährlich aufgelöste Langzeiterfassung der Baumfitness über die gesamte Lebenszeit hinweg. Mit ihnen lassen sich rückwirkend blattinterne CO2-Konzentrationen (ci) berechnen. Zeitreihen des CO2-Konzentrationsgradienten (ca – ci) zur Atmosphäre (ca) zeigen Veränderungen in der Effizienz der Wassernutzung auf, die als Folgen von atmosphärischem CO2-Anstieg, Dürren oder episodischer Umweltverschmutzung auftreten. Am Beispiel verschiedener deutscher Standorte und Baumarten zeigen wir, wie ca-ci-plots unterschiedliche Langzeitreaktionen auf Umweltstress erkennen lassen. ca-ci-plots lassen Störungen der Baumvitalität erkennen, bevor äußerlich sichtbare Schäden auftreten und zeigen an, dass durch die jüngsten Dürren seit 2015  Baumarten gefährdet sind, die vom „Waldsterben“ der 1980er unberührt waren.
Kommunikation rund um Extremwetterereignisse mit Hilfe von Attributionsforschung am Deutschen Wetterdienst
Authors: Tivig Miriam , Knauf Johanna , Schröter Jonas , Lorenz Philip , Kreienkamp Frank
Published: January 2024

Extremwetterereignisse erfahren aktuell viel mediale Aufmerksamkeit. Im Fokus stehen besonders Hitzewellen, extreme Niederschlagsereignisse oder Dürreperioden. Es besteht auch ein großes Interesse an der Abschätzung zum Ausmaß des Einflusses des Klimawandels auf diese Ereignisse. Dabei wird auch die Frage gestellt, inwiefern Extremwetterereignisse durch den Klimawandel in den nächsten Jahren und Jahrzehnten häufiger und / oder stärker werden. Das Forschungsfeld der Attribution hat sich zum Ziel gesetzt, diese Frage zu beantworten.
Der Deutsche Wetterdienst hat bereits seit 2019 mit dem Aufbau eines eigenen Systems zur Bearbeitung von Attributionsstudien begonnen. Dieses soll nun sukzessive weiterentwickelt und operationalisiert werden. Ziel ist es, auf besondere meteorologische Extremereignisse in Deutschland zeitnah zu reagieren. Durch eine wissenschaftlich fundierte Attributionsstudie sollen robuste Aussagen formuliert und diese der Öffentlichkeit kommuniziert werden.
Dabei wird der DWD auch von Entwicklungen im Rahmen des BMBF-Projektes ClimXtreme Phase II unterstützt. Zum einen soll der bereits entwickelte Prototyp des Attributionssystems durch neueste Erkenntnisse in der Extremwertstatistik verbessert werden und das bestehende System zu einem operativen Verfahren weiterentwickelt werden (Subprojekt AXE_G, Modul B). Hier sollen möglichst viele Arbeitsschritte automatisiert werden, damit nach Eintritt eines Extremwetterereignisses eine schnelle Untersuchung möglich ist.
Zum anderen bedürfen Wissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse jedoch auch eines umfangreichen Übersetzungs- und Kommunikationsprozesses, um in die praktische Entscheidungsfindung einfließen zu können. Das ClimXtreme Subprojekt ClimXchange (Modul C) befasst sich daher mit der grundlegenden Herausforderung, wie vorhandenes Wissen der Klimaforschung am besten vermittelt werden kann. Dabei sollen die spezifischen Erwartungen, Wahrnehmungen und Bedarfe der verschiedenen Nutzergruppen berücksichtigt werden.
Über allem steht dabei die Frage, wie der Deutsche Wetterdienst die Gesellschaft dabei unterstützen kann, sich besser auf zukünftige Extremwetterereignisse vorzubereiten.
Recent extreme heatwaves dwarfed by projected future events
Authors: Aglas-Leitner Philipp , Perkins-Kirkpatrick Sarah , Stone Daithi
Published: January 2024

In recent decades, unprecedented heatwaves have resulted in substantial impacts on humans and their environment. Previously, heatwave trend analysis has largely focused on trends across global warming thresholds or on specific regions. Furthermore, a variety of diverse heatwave parameters has been applied across separate studies, hampering direct comparison. What is more, there has been limited information on how future projections of individual events compare to recent extreme heatwaves.
In our study, we define heatwaves as periods of at least three consecutive days where daily area-weighted mean temperature exceeds the regional 90th percentile. We utilize a comprehensive analysis framework based on four heatwave parameters and additional sub-parameters where appropriate: (1) heatwave duration in days, (2) heatwave severity, an intensity index enabling interpreting excess heat relative to the regional climatology, (3) cumulative heat, and (4) percentage of locally affected area. The latter is an area-based parameter developed for this study providing information on the exceedance of local (grid cell level) climatology thresholds during the course of an individual heatwave in percent of the respective region’s overall area. This analysis framework greatly increases the ability for individual heatwave-based and regional intercomparison, and, furthermore, explores both regional as well as local scale trends, thereby providing critical impact-oriented information. In addition to daily output from multi-model ensembles from models taking part in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 and a large initial-condition CanESM5 ensemble, we employ our framework to 14 regional events observed during the period of 2010-2021 and analyzed based on Berkeley Earth and ERA5 reanalysis products. This provides crucial insights into how future heatwaves compare to recent events.
Our results indicate that recently observed extreme heatwaves are dwarfed by projected 21st century events. Moreover, without even moderate reduction in greenhouse gas emissions the probability of reoccurrence or exceedance of these recent extreme reference values is significantly increasing, and they are still plausible under aggressive emission reduction scenarios. These findings stress the necessity for substantial mitigation and for considering heatwaves well outside the lived experience for adaptation strategies.
Business Models for Forest Carbon Sinks
Authors: Sprinz Detlef
Published: January 2024

Nature-based solutions, such as forest carbon sinks, have been intensively studied and debated.  As part of the EU Green Deal, the aspiration of creating the first climate neutral continent by 2050 has been put forward with the land-based sector playing an important role.  While integrated assessment models, as used by the IPCC, highlight the role of permanent and temporary carbon removals in the pursuit of country-specific and world-wide GHG net zero emissions, they do not pay attention to the incentive structure to create carbon removals.
I will fill the void by presenting a business model canvas for forest carbon removals from the perspective of EU forest owners.  To this effect, I will review numerical predictions of the remuneration of German forest carbon and for climate-resilient forests as well as forest nature conservation by BMEL, discuss the various standards presently used to “certify” forest carbon removals and their pitfalls (which led to a range of scandals in verification), and outline all parts of a comprehensive model canvas, incl. the value proposition, customer relationships, channels, partners, key activities and key resources needed.  This comprehensive approach situates the business model canvas in the regulatory context and the incentive structures for forest owners to actively contribute to the provision of forest carbon removals.
Does Scientific Knowledge Impact Climate-Related Decisions? Forecasting Political Decision on Forest Carbon With Various Forms of Knowledge
Authors: Sprinz Detlef , Schaefers Tabea , Lenk Freya , Krott Maximilian
Published: January 2024

It is often assumed that scientific knowledge should guide political decisions on climate.  What is less clear is whether scientific knowledge substantially impacts political decisions on climate policy.  In order to shed light on this vexing challenge, we undertake a range of simulation experiments by employing the Predictioneer’s Game, a non-cooperative, numerical negotiation forecasting model employed for multi-actor decisions.  In particular, we systematically vary the inclusion of the sources of potential influence (coercion, dis/incentives, loyal information, scientific information) to elucidate the directional and separate effects of scientific knowledge on German government decisions on whether to remunerate forest carbon, forest nature conservation, and climate resilience of forests in 2022/2023.
Our results show that adding loyal and scientific knowledge to the baseline of coercion and dis/incentives changes overall results by no more than 15% points – and sometimes not at all.  The separate effects of scientific knowledge (by itself) are often substantially lower due to correlated effects with loyal knowledge.  Our results cast doubts on whether scientific knowledge on forest carbon, forest nature conservation, and climate resilience of forests has a substantial effect on actual German forest policy decisions.
Mapping 24 woody plant species phenology and ground forest phenology over China from 1951 to 2020
Authors: Zhu Mengyao , Dai Junhu , Wang Huanjiong , Alatalo Juha M. , Liu Wei , Hao Yulong , Ge Quansheng
Published: January 2024

Abstract. Plant phenology refers to cyclic plant growth events, and is one of the most important indicators of climate change. Integration of plant phenology information is crucial for understanding the ecosystem response to global change and modeling the material and energy balance of terrestrial ecosystems. Utilizing 24 552 in situ phenological observations of 24 representative woody plant species from the Chinese Phenology Observation Network (CPON), we have developed maps delineating species phenology (SP) and ground phenology (GP) of forests over China from 1951 to 2020. These maps offer a detailed spatial resolution of 0.1° and a temporal resolution of 1 d. Our method involves a model-based approach to upscale in situ phenological observations to SP maps, followed by the application of weighted average and quantile methods to derive GP maps from the SP data. The resulting SP maps for the 24 woody plants exhibit a high degree of concordance with in situ observations, manifesting an average deviation of 6.9 d for spring and 10.8 d for autumn phenological events. Moreover, the GP maps demonstrate robust alignment with extant land surface phenology (LSP) products sourced from remote sensing data, particularly within deciduous forests, where the average discrepancy is 8.8 d in spring and 15.1 d in autumn. This dataset provides an independent and reliable phenology data source for China on a long-time scale of 70 years, and contributes to more comprehensive research on plant phenology and climate change at both regional and national scales. The dataset can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.57760/sciencedb.07995 (Zhu and Dai, 2023).
Global Downscaled Projections for Climate Impacts Research (GDPCIR): preserving quantile trends for modeling future climate impacts
Authors: Gergel Diana R. , Malevich Steven B. , McCusker Kelly E. , Tenezakis Emile , Delgado Michael T. , Fish Meredith A. , Kopp Robert E.
Published: January 2024

Abstract. Global climate models (GCMs) are important tools for understanding the climate system and how it is projected to evolve under scenario-driven emissions pathways. Their output is widely used in climate impacts research for modeling the current and future effects of climate change. However, climate model output remains coarse in relation to the high-resolution climate data needed for climate impacts studies, and it also exhibits biases relative to observational data. Treatment of the distribution tails is a key challenge in existing bias-adjusted and downscaled climate datasets available at a global scale; many of these datasets used quantile mapping techniques that were known to dampen or amplify trends in the tails. In this study, we apply the Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) method (Cannon et al., 2015) for bias adjustment. After bias adjustment, we apply a new spatial downscaling method called Quantile-Preserving Localized-Analog Downscaling (QPLAD), which is designed to preserve trends in the distribution tails. Both methods are integrated into a transparent and reproducible software pipeline, which we apply to global, daily GCM surface variable outputs (maximum and minimum temperature and total precipitation) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments (O'Neill et al., 2016) for the historical experiment and four future emissions scenarios ranging from aggressive mitigation to no mitigation, namely SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0, and SSP5–8.5 (Riahi et al., 2017). We use the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 (Hersbach et al., 2020) temperature and precipitation reanalysis as the reference dataset over the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) reference period of 1995–2014. We produce bias-adjusted and downscaled data over the historical period (1950–2014) and the future emissions pathways (2015–2100) for 25 GCMs in total. The output dataset is the Global Downscaled Projections for Climate Impacts Research (GDPCIR), a global, daily, 0.25∘ horizontal-resolution product which is publicly available and hosted on Microsoft AI for Earth's Planetary Computer (https://planetarycomputer.microsoft.com/dataset/group/cil-gdpcir/, last access: 23 October 2023).
Adjoint subordination to calculate backward travel time probability of pollutants in water with various velocity resolutions
Authors: Zhang Yong , Fogg Graham E. , Sun HongGuang , Reeves Donald M. , Neupauer Roseanna M. , Wei Wei
Published: January 2024

Abstract. Backward probabilities, such as the backward travel time probability density function for pollutants in natural aquifers/rivers, have been used by hydrologists for decades in water quality applications. Calculating these backward probabilities, however, is challenging due to non-Fickian pollutant transport dynamics and velocity resolution variability at study sites. To address these issues, we built an adjoint model by deriving a backward-in-time fractional-derivative transport equation subordinated to regional flow, developed a Lagrangian solver, and applied the model/solver to trace pollutant transport in diverse flow systems. The adjoint model subordinates to a reversed regional flow field, transforms forward-in-time boundaries into either absorbing or reflective boundaries, and reverses the tempered stable density to define backward mechanical dispersion. The corresponding Lagrangian solver efficiently projects backward super-diffusive mechanical dispersion along streamlines. Field applications demonstrate the adjoint subordination model's success with respect to recovering release history, groundwater age, and pollutant source locations for various flow systems. These include systems with upscaled constant velocity, nonuniform divergent flow fields, or fine-resolution velocities in a nonstationary, regional-scale aquifer, where non-Fickian transport significantly affects pollutant dynamics and backward probabilities. Caution is needed when identifying the phase-sensitive (aqueous vs. absorbed) pollutant source in natural media. The study also explores possible extensions of the adjoint subordination model for quantifying backward probabilities of pollutants in more complex media, such as discrete fracture networks.
Brief communication: The Lahaina Fire disaster – how models can be used to understand and predict wildfires
Authors: Juliano Timothy W. , Szasdi-Bardales Fernando , Lareau Neil P. , Shamsaei Kasra , Kosović Branko , Elhami-Khorasani Negar , James Eric P. , Ebrahimian Hamed
Published: January 2024

Abstract. Following the destructive Lahaina Fire in Hawaii, our team has modeled the wind and fire spread processes to understand the drivers of this devastating event. The results are in good agreement with observations recorded during the event. Extreme winds with high variability, a fire ignition close to the community, and construction characteristics led to continued fire spread in multiple directions. Our results suggest that available modeling capabilities can provide vital information to guide decision-making and emergency response management during wildfire events.
Straight to the point: evaluation of a Point of Care Information (POCI) resource in answering disease-related questions
Authors: Wasserman Rachel Leah , Diane L. Seger  , Mary G. Amato  , Zoe Co  , Aqsa Mugal  , Angela Rui  , Pamela M. Garabedian  , Marlika Marceau  , Ania Syrowatka  , Lynn A. Volk  , David W. Bates
Published: January 2024

Objective: To evaluate the ability of DynaMedex, an evidence-based drug and disease Point of Care Information (POCI) resource, in answering clinical queries using keyword searches.
Methods: Real-world disease-related questions compiled from clinicians at an academic medical center, DynaMedex search query data, and medical board review resources were categorized into five clinical categories (complications & prognosis, diagnosis & clinical presentation, epidemiology, prevention & screening/monitoring, and treatment) and six specialties (cardiology, endocrinology, hematology-oncology, infectious disease, internal medicine, and neurology). A total of 265 disease-related questions were evaluated by pharmacist reviewers based on if an answer was found (yes, no), whether the answer was relevant (yes, no), difficulty in finding the answer (easy, not easy), cited best evidence available (yes, no), clinical practice guidelines included (yes, no), and level of detail provided (detailed, limited details).
Results: An answer was found for 259/265 questions (98%). Both reviewers found an answer for 241 questions (91%), neither found the answer for 6 questions (2%), and only one reviewer found an answer for 18 questions (7%). Both reviewers found a relevant answer 97% of the time when an answer was found. Of all relevant answers found, 68% were easy to find, 97% cited best quality of evidence available, 72% included clinical guidelines, and 95% were detailed. Recommendations for areas of resource improvement were identified.
Conclusions: The resource enabled reviewers to answer most questions easily with the best quality of evidence available, providing detailed answers and clinical guidelines, with a high level of replication of results across users.
POR UMA (NÃO)REINVENÇÃO DA EDUCAÇÃO: A INTELIGÊNCIA ARTIFICIAL E O DESLOCAMENTO DO PAPEL TRADICIONALMENTE ATRIBUÍDO AO PROFESSOR
Authors: Santos Roger dos , Profeta Guilherme Augusto Caruso , Profeta Rogério Augusto
Published: January 2024

Este artigo tem como objetivo revisitar, por meio de uma revisão bibliográfica do tipo narrativa, diferentes momentos históricos, do século XV ao XXI, em que a emergência de novas tecnologias e/ou mudanças sociais levou a novas formas de compreender, conceituar e praticar a educação, até chegar às novas perguntas que chatbots como o ChatGPT suscitam, sendo a principal: em que medida a Inteligência Artificial pode substituir os professores humanos? Conclui-se que, na condição de ferramenta, o ChatGPT e outros modelos análogos têm considerável potencial de utilização como parte de práticas educativas conduzidas em ambientes escolares, mas que, em vez de substituir o professor, tais ferramentas exigirão um novo deslocamento de sua função, em que deverão ser valorizadas a competência e a criatividade para construir perguntas complexas.
PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Educação; Inovações Tecnológicas; Inteligência Artificial; ChatGPT.
UM ESTUDO-MERGULHO DAS PRODUÇÕES AUDIOVISUAIS EXIBIDAS NA IIª MOSTRA [EM]CURTAS: A MANIFESTAÇÃO DO CINEMA DE FLUXO NA PRODUÇÃO INDEPENDENTE BRASILEIRA
Authors: Lourenço Keyme Gomes
Published: January 2024

Este trabalho foi produzido por organizadores da Mostra Audiovisual [em]curtas e propõe um estudo sobre a Mostra e sobre os filmes que foram exibidos na sessão titulada Maio [em]casa de maio de 2021. Vinculado a esse objetivo, buscamos estudar o cinema de fluxo, compreendê-lo e identificar como ele se manifestou nos curtas-metragens que compuseram tal catálogo. E a partir desse encontro-estudo, produzir tecituras sobre as obras, relacionadas às teorias fílmicas da Diferença, trazendo o que emergiu após assistir os curtas e sermos afetados por eles. Por fim, percebemos que o cinema de fluxo que popularizou a partir dos anos 90, influenciou a estética dos novos produtores que participaram da Mostra [em]curtas, quando nos deparamos com obras que questionam o real, editados com mudanças abruptas de planos, que demandam do espectador uma imersão sensorial, guiada por um pensamento articulado, onde o tempo não passa pela ordem do racional, mas do sensível, do afeto. A partir do contato com os filmes e dos estudos deles, podemos aprimorar nossas maneiras de entender e habitar novos mundos, reconhecer como se comporta uma geração de produtores num período pandêmico, e como eles trabalham para desencadear suas narrativas e histórias no audiovisual.
PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Mostra de Cinema; Filosofia Fílmica. Mídias. Projeto de Extensão. Estudo.
O ESTADO DA ARTE SOBRE O PROGRAMA NACIONAL DE TECNOLOGIA EDUCACIONAL (PROINFO)
Authors: Oliveira Julia Maria da Silva , Muniz Darluce Andrade de Queiroz
Published: January 2024

Neste texto propusemo-nos a construir o Estado da Arte sobre o Programa Nacional de Tecnologia Educacional (Proinfo), nos bancos de Teses e Dissertações da CAPES e da BDTD, no período de 1997 a 2019. A abordagem da pesquisa é qualitativa, de caráter exploratório, a qual identificou que as universidades públicas são espaço privilegiado para o desenvolvimento de pesquisas, que a região sudeste concentra o maior quantitativo de teses e dissertações produzidas pela CAPES acerca dessa temática no campo da educação. Concluímos que a política pública de inclusão das tecnologias digitais na educação apresenta fragmentação no âmbito da implantação, implementação, que inexiste nas teses e dissertações avaliações dessa política pelo poder público, bem como indica exiguidade na oferta da formação continuada dos docentes.
 PALAVRAS-CHAVE: TIC. ProInfo. Educação. Tecnologia.
NÚCLEO DE MEMÓRIA AUDIOVISUAL DA UERJ (NuMA): PRESERVAÇÃO DE ACERVO UNIVERSITÁRIO E ESPAÇO PARA COMPARTILHAMENTO RESPONSÁVEL DE SABERES EM REDE
Authors: Farias Letícia Aires de , Wanderley Sonia Maria de Almeida Ignatiuk , Vasconcelos Victor Hugo do Nascimento , Fonseca Rafael Schuabb Poll da
Published: January 2024

O presente relato traz a experiência desenvolvida pelo Centro de Tecnologia Educacional da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (CTE/Uerj) que resulta na transformação de sua Videoteca em um Núcleo de Memória Audiovisual (NuMA/Uerj). Sua criação é fruto do projeto de pesquisa financiado por edital da Fundação Carlos Chagas Filho de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado do Rio de Janeiro – FAPERJ. O texto relata o diálogo entre a modernização tecnológica e uma preocupação multidisciplinar com a importância das fontes audiovisuais na produção de sentido e divulgação do conhecimento acadêmico. Também traz uma interlocução sobre a relação entre memória e história, culminando com as transformações ocorridas nos processos de guarda, preservação e utilização dessas narrativas como fontes para a história institucional.
PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Audiovisual; Memória; História Institucional; NuMA.
LAJES MACIÇAS TRELIÇADAS E NERVURADAS - ANÁLISE COMPARATIVA
Authors: Rodrigues Coelho de Moura Tiago
Published: January 2024

RESUMO: Na construção civil, cada projeto possui suas peculiaridades, com isso, é importante conhecer as variáveis dos elementos estruturais a fim de reduzir custos, aumentar a segurança e viabilizar a obra. Nas edificações de concreto armado, as lajes mais usadas são as do tipo treliçada, maciça e nervurada. Este artigo apresenta um estudo comparativo entre esses três tipos de lajes. Os fatores analisados foram o peso, quantidade de aço e quantidade de concreto em função do tipo de laje e das dimensões mais próximas das usados em obras residenciais. As normas principais para esses elementos estruturais são a NBR 6118 (ABNT, 2014), a NBR 6120 (ABNT, 1980) e a NBR 14859-1 (ABNT, 2002), respectivamente, para concreto armado, sobrecargas nas edificações e lajes pré-fabricadas. Para obter as dimensões geométricas, foram feitos pré-dimensionamentos usando os procedimentos das bibliografias referenciadas. A análise estrutural foi feita de forma analítica com auxílio do Microsoft Excel®. As verificações necessárias foram realizadas conforme a NBR 6118 (ABNT, 2014). Ao final, foram comparados os resultados de peso, quantitativo de aço e volume de concreto. De modo geral, ficou notório que a laje treliçada tem maior vantagem que as demais.
Diagnóstico ambiental do material fresado de pavimentos asfálticos para fins de gerenciamento em Aparecida de Goiânia e Goiânia-GO
Authors: Batista Ferreira de Lima Lara , Roberta Galdino de Oliveira Lais
Published: January 2024

O Brasil possui predominância do modal rodoviário, e isso faz com que exista diversas obras de reconstrução e manutenção de pavimentos. Uma das etapas destas obras diz respeito à realização da fresagem da camada de revestimento asfáltico, que possui o material fresado como resíduo. Porém, não existe a divulgação do quantitativo de material fresado gerado anualmente. Estes dados são importantes para que seja feito o gerenciamento deste resíduo e incentivar a sua reutilização ou reciclagem. Assim, este estudo tem como objetivo identificar a geração e a reutilização do material fresado de pavimentos asfálticos nos municípios de Goiânia e Aparecida de Goiânia do estado de Goiás. Nesse sentido, a metodologia utilizada incluiu levantamento de informações do quantitativo de material fresado é gerado e destinação do mesmo, a partir do contato direto com as Secretarias de Infraestrutura das Prefeituras de Goiânia e de Aparecida de Goiânia. Desta forma, o estudo indicou que Aparecida de Goiânia não realiza fresagem de pavimentos e que Goiânia gerou mais de 96 mil toneladas nos anos de 2021 e 2020. Além disso, o estudo aponta a necessidade de divulgação de dados nacionais em relação a geração de material fresado anualmente, de forma a melhorar o gerenciamento e incentivar as práticas de fresagem e reutilização do material, contribuindo com ações sustentáveis e tecnicamente viáveis.