bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
TINDAKAN KOMUNIKATIF PADA SISTEM BAHTSUL MATSAIL DI PONDOK PESANTREN AL AMIN; Musyawarah Kitab Kuning di Pondok Pesantren Putri Al Amin Ngasinan, Rejomulyo, Kota Kediri
Authors: Afia Azkiyatul
Published: August 2019

The culture of interactive dialogue in seeking an agreement in determining shari’a law that still requires detailed mediation in the public space referred to in Bahstul matsail. Scientific forums that are more familiar with this matter, are accommodated by the Al Amien Kediri Islamic Boarding School, where there are ulama’, religious teachers, and forum participants as a complement in determining a law that is still multi-interpretation. The agreement will be the basis of one law that is still biased, so that it indicates an agreement called Ijma’. The existence of mutualism symbiosis between the elements of Bahstul matsail is interesting in Habermas’s study of public space in delivering ideas and opinions. Habermas in the public sphere sees that there is a dominance of communicative actions, one of them is social statification from Bahstul matsail participants in Habermas “bourgeois public space” where the domination of scholarship in more to the ulama because it is considered more understandable about Shari’a law.Budaya dialog interaktif dalam mencari sebuah kesepakatan dalam menetukan hukum syariat yang masih membutuhkan penjelasan secara rinci termediasi dalam ruang public yang di sebut dengan Bahtsul matsail. Forum ilmiah yang lebih akrab untuk hal ini, diwadahi oleh pondok pesantren Al-amin Kediri, dimana terdapat ulama’, ustadz dan peserta forum sebagai pelengkap dalam menentukan sebuah hukum yang masih multi tafsir. Kesepakatan akan menjadi dasar dari satu hukum yang masih bias, sehingga berindikasi kepada satu kesepakatan yang di sebut ijma’. Adanya symbiosis mutualisme antara elemen Bahtsul matsail menjadi menarik dalam kajian ruang public Habermas dalam penyampaian gagasan, ide dan pendapat. Habermas dalam ruang public melihat ada dominasi tindakan komunikatif salah satunya, statifikasi social dari peserta Bahsul matsail dalam Bahasa Habermas “Ruang public borjuis” dimana dominasi keilmuan lebih pada ulama lantaran dianggap lebih faham tentang hukum syariat.
The comparison of size-specific dose estimate in CT examination based on head and body PMMA phantom
Authors: Ali Mohd Hanafi , Anam Choirul , Haryanto Freddy , Dougherty Geoff
Published: August 2019

Nowadays, a dose estimate for individual patients undergoing CT examination is carried out using the metric of size-specific dose estimate (SSDE), which is calculated by multiplying a volume CT dose index (CTDIvol) and a correction factor that is a function of patient size. Two CTDIvol values are based on head and body PMMA phantoms. There are also two values of correction factors (k), both for head and body PMMA phantoms. The purpose of this study was to compare the SSDE values calculated using head and body PMMA phantoms with their corresponding correction factors (k). The CTDIvol values were derived from the ImPACT 1.04 software for 12 CT scanners: Sensation 4, Sensation 16, Sensation 64, Light Speed, Light Speed 16, Light Speed VCT, Secura, Brilliance 16, Brilliance 64, Asteion Dual, Aquilion 4, and Aquilion 16. The size of the patients who underwent CT examination was characterized by a water-equivalent diameter (Dw) from 10 cm to 45 cm. The results indicated that the differences in SSDE values based on head and body CTDIvol were within 20%. Thus, the SSDE value can be calculated using the head or body CTDIvol bases with corresponding k value.
Distributed subgraph matching on timely dataflow
Authors: Lai Longbin , Qing Zhu , Yang Zhengyi , Jin Xin , Lai Zhengmin , Wang Ran , Hao Kongzhang , Lin Xuemin , Qin Lu , Zhang Wenjie , Zhang Ying , Qian Zhengping , Zhou Jingren
Published: August 2019

Recently there emerge many distributed algorithms that aim at solving subgraph matching at scale. Existing algorithm-level comparisons failed to provide a systematic view of distributed subgraph matching mainly due to the intertwining of strategy and optimization. In this paper, we identify four strategies and three general-purpose optimizations from representative state-of-the-art algorithms. We implement the four strategies with the optimizations based on the common Timely dataflow system for systematic strategy-level comparison. Our implementation covers all representative algorithms. We conduct extensive experiments for both unlabelled matching and labelled matching to analyze the performance of distributed subgraph matching under various settings, which is finally summarized as a practical guide.
Optimal and general out-of-order sliding-window aggregation
Authors: Tangwongsan Kanat , Hirzel Martin , Schneider Scott
Published: August 2019

Sliding-window aggregation derives a user-defined summary of the most-recent portion of a data stream. For in-order streams, each window change can be handled in
O
(1) time even when the aggregation operator is not invertible. But streaming data often arrive inherently out-of-order, e.g., due to clock drifts and communication delays. For such streams, prior work resorted to latency-prone buffering or spent
O
(log
n
) time for every window change, where n is the instantaneous window size. This paper presents FiBA, a novel real-time sliding window aggregation algorithm that optimally handles streams of varying degrees of out-of-orderness. FiBA is as general as the state-of-the-art and supports variable-sized windows. An insert or evict takes amortized
O
(log
d
) time, where
d
is the distance of the change to the window's boundary. This means
O
(1) time for in-order arrivals and nearly
O
(1) time for slightly out-of-order arrivals, tending to
O
(log
n
) time for the most severely out-of-order arrivals. We also prove a matching lower bound, showing optimality. At its heart, the algorithm combines and extends finger searching, lazy rebalancing, and position-aware partial aggregates. Further, FiBA can answer range queries that aggregate subwindows for window sharing. Finally, our experiments show that FiBA performs well in practice and conforms to the theoretical findings, with significantly higher throughput than
O
(log
n
) algorithms.
Creating top ranking options in the continuous option and preference space
Authors: Tang Bo , Mouratidis Kyriakos , Yiu Man Lung , Chen Zhenyu
Published: August 2019

Top-
k
queries are extensively used to retrieve the
k
most relevant options (e.g., products, services, accommodation alternatives, etc) based on a weighted scoring function that captures user preferences. In this paper, we take the viewpoint of a business owner who plans to introduce a new option to the market, with a certain type of clientele in mind. Given a target region in the consumer spectrum, we determine what attribute values the new option should have, so that it ranks among the top-
k
for any user in that region. Our methodology can also be used to improve an existing option, at the minimum modification cost, so that it ranks consistently high for an intended type of customers. This is the first work on competitive option placement where no distinct user(s) are targeted, but a general clientele type, i.e., a continuum of possible preferences. Here also lies our main challenge (and contribution), i.e., dealing with the interplay between two continuous spaces: the targeted region in the preference spectrum, and the option domain (where the new option will be placed). At the core of our methodology lies a novel and powerful interlinking between the two spaces. Our algorithms offer exact answers in practical response times, even for the largest of the standard benchmark datasets.
Displacement-Based Simplified Calculation for Pile-Soil Interaction under Reciprocating Low-Cycle Pseudo-Static Loads
Authors: Chen Baochun , Luo Xiaoye , Huang Fuyun , Dong Rui , Xue Junqing
Published: August 2019

A reciprocating low-cycle pseudo-static loading test on three reinforced concrete (RC) piles was performed in the Structural Laboratory of Fuzhou University to study their failure modes and seismic behaviors. The modified calculations of lateral deformation and soil pressure along the piles were further verified based on the test results. In this article, a displacement-based simplified calculation for pile-soil interaction of piles was proposed based on the shear equilibrium and test results, and then it was compared with the traditional m method and p-y curve method. The test results show that m method overestimated the bearing capacity of piles, leading to a lower safety factor for the piles. Therefore, it was not suitable to calculate the internal force and lateral displacement under large displacement. Moreover, the ductility of prestress high-strength concrete pipe piles or RC piles would be overestimated by the p-y curve method. Although the p-y curve method took into account the nonlinearity of soil, the calculated force-lateral displacement curve still showed a significant difference with the test results under large deformation. The test results further show that the modified calculation of lateral displacement and soil pressure can be preferably validated by test results, which indicates that the displacement law of laterally loaded pile can be accurately assessed. Furthermore, the proposed displacement-based simplified calculation showed a good agreement with the test values in terms of internal forces and force-lateral displacement curve. Therefore, it was recommended for analyzing the cyclic behavior of laterally loaded pile foundations considering soil-pile interaction in integral abutments jointless bridges (IAJBs).
Autonomy Design and Operations in Aviation: Terminology and Requirements Framework
Authors:   Administrative Committee 377 (AC377), Cook Stephen , Dietrich Anna , Lacher Andrew
Published: August 2019

Description

The aviation community has shown significant interest in adopting increasingly autonomous systems for routine use in aviation. Interest in this technology comes from the unmanned aircraft community, including those developing urban air mobility solutions and developing cognitive assistance aids leveraging mobile devices as well as those interested in simplifying small aircraft and general aviation operations and in improving aviation safety through increased automation. Increased automation moving toward autonomy has shown great promise to improve the safety of aviation and transform the industry.
On the Peculiarities of Terminological Word Group with Meaning “Value-Based Pricing” and the Problem of Their Equivalence in Translation
Authors: Rolak Irene
Published: August 2019

The paper presents a semantic analysis of a range of selected terms along with contrastive characteristics of their syntagmatic and paradigmatic peculiarities. “Price”, “cost” and “value” are the basic notions of market economy and, correspondingly, the lexemes denoting them. As a result, the paper focuses on the information these lexemes transmit along with their equivalents in the Polish and Russian languages. Probable variants of their translation are also shown. The problem of evaluation of their linguistic volume refers to the functioning of these words in economic discourse as general notions (hyperonyms) that involve a range of particular ones. The author takes into consideration the factors, which have the impact on translation of the Polish and Russian terminological phrases (word groups) that are often calques of English terms. An adequate translation is influenced by the following: understanding of terminological and non-terminological nature of a phrase being translated, acquaintance with idiomatic expressions used at translation of English terminological lexis, taking into account the regularities of syntagmatic collocation of a word. On the basis of use of phrases from the Russian and Polish economic discourses, the author shows the characteristics of use for selected terms and gives some adequate variants of their translation. The analysis of relations within the terminological group under study has shown that in the process of translation and choice for synonyms terminological and non-terminological meaning of a word, use of idiomatic expressions in both target languages that are calques from English, a tradition in realization of syntagmatic collocation of a word should be taken into consideration.
The Quest for Knowledge in the “King James Bible”
Authors: Piotrowska-Oberda Ewa
Published: August 2019

The aim of this article is the quest for knowledge in the King James Bible (1611) in terms of quantitative and qualitative research methodology with the application of the statistical analysis tool Antconc. The quest for knowledge with the use of corpus research aims at discussing the Biblical concept of knowledge through the origin, the object of knowledge, its implications and its constant development. Knowledge is often seen as of divine nature, reflected in the soul of man. It is based not only on logical, but also on the spiritual and ethical reasoning. The object of knowledge is light, reflecting the divine nature of knowledge which exceeds the intellect to reach a deeper spiritual human reasoning. In the King James Bible (1611) the authors of New Testament consider human knowledge to be imperfect and partial. They emphasize the need for a spiritual man aiming at reaching a complete knowledge. This spiritual development is based on the relationship between knowledge and faith, as well as knowledge and love.For the authors of the books of the New Testament there is no dichotomy between both knowledge and faith and knowledge and love, because faith and love depend on knowledge that originates in the word of God and leads to spiritual development. From this perspective, religious knowledge, love and mercy as well as faith developed through the knowledge of the biblical text leads to the knowledge of God, the enlightening source of ultimate knowledge. Thus, in the spiritual development of man not only the knowledge and faith but also emotional intelligence, which expresses itself through love and charity as the safer guide in all controversial issues, are important
Violent Black Man and the Myth of Black Macho in Eugene O’Neill’s “The Dreamy Kid”
Authors: Łobodziec Agnieszka
Published: August 2019

The aim of this article is the investigation of the extent to which Eugene O’Neill, in his drama The Dreamy Kid, (re)constructs, or employs, the black macho myth, which negatively images black men as marginalized and violent. This undertaking questions O’Neill’s self-proclaimed progressive racial attitudes and stated focus on the universal nature of human existence, which he professed to express through drama. Moreover, the article challenges the mainstream view of The Dreamy Kid as progressive. Although the play focalizes the experience of a marginalized black man, which could be interpreted as the playwright’s concern with the unjust racial and class stratification of American society, O’Neill’s production, unfortunately, contains a number of pervasive stereotypes relative to black people’s alleged moral degeneracy, primitiveness, and violent behavior, which threatens the white dominated constructed order. In terms of gendered racial politics, in the article attention is given to O’Neill’s presentation of black male negotiations with the white patriarchal power structure, embodied by the police forces, and with black matriarchy, represented by O’Neill’s stereotypical character portrayal of a dominant elderly black woman. Lastly, an overall analysis is performed in light of the call for an autonomous black art, which emerged among black artists in opposition to the demeaning, unrealistic, stereotypical portrayals of black victims of oppression by white American writers.
Generalized Spin-Orbit Interaction and Its Manifestation in Two-Dimensional Electron Systems
Authors: Eremko A. A. , Brizhik L. , Loktev V. M.
Published: August 2019

In frame of Dirac quantum field theory that describes electrons and positrons as elementary excitations of the spinor field, the generalized operator of the spin-orbit interaction is obtained using non-relativistic approximation in the Hamilton operator of the spinor field taking into account the presence of an external potential. This operator is shown to contain a new term in addition to the known ones. By an example of a model potential in the form of a quantum well, it is demonstrated that the Schr¨odinger equation with the generalized spin-orbit interaction operator describes all spin states obtained directly from the Dirac equation. The dependence of the spin-orbit interaction on the spin states in quasi-two-dimensional systems of electrons localized in a quantum well is analyzed. It is demonstrated that the electric current in the quantum well layer induces the spin polarization of charge carriers near the boundary surfaces of the layer, with the polarization of the charge carriers being opposite at the different surfaces. This phenomenon appears due to the spin-orbit interaction and is known as the spin Hall effect, which was observed experimentally in heterostructures with the corresponding geometry.
Influence of Laser Light on the Formation and Properties of Silicon Nanocrystals in a-Si/Sn Layered Structures
Authors: Neimash V. B. , Nikolenko A. S. , Strelchuk V. V. , Shepelyavyi P. Ye. , Litvinchuk P. M. , Melnyk V. V. , Olkhovyk I. V.
Published: August 2019

The influence of the laser light intensity and the temperature on the tin-induced crystallization of amorphous silicon has been studied using the Raman screening and optical microscopy methods. The existence of non-thermal mechanisms giving rise to the influence of laser light on the formation of silicon nanocrystals and their Raman spectra is demonstrated experimentally. The photoionization of silicon and the electron-phonon interaction are considered as possible origins of the detected effects. The prospects of their application in new technologies for producing nano-silicon films used in solar cells are discussed.
Instrucción Ortopédica de Posgrado - Imágenes. Resolución del caso. [Post-Graduate Orthopedic Instruction: Imaging. Answer to Case Study]
Authors: Ghisi Juan Pablo , Vidondo María Emilia
Published: August 2019

Se describe el  sindrome de friccion del tendon patelar-condilo femoral, que es una entidad que ha recibido poca atención en la literatura ortopédica, y en muchas ocasiones constituye un hallazgo en las imágenes de RM sin sospecha clínica ni conocimiento de la existencia del cuadro de impingement del sector superolateral del paquete adiposo infrarotuliano de Hoffa (PAI). Es importante que se identifiquen los hallazgos característicos de las imágenes, tanto para la correcta elección del tratamiento como para distinguir esta entidad de otras causas de dolor anterior de rodilla. Si bien no existen en la actualidad respuestas definitivas con respecto a la etiología del síndrome, su identificación tiene implicaciones importantes tanto para el diagnóstico como para el tratamiento. Patellar tendon-lateral femoral condyle friction syndrome is discussed, a condition that has received little attention in orthopedic literature. In many cases, it is an incidental finding on MRI when there is no clinical suspicion or even confirmation of Hoffa fat pad impingement (FPI) syndrome. Identification of pathognomonic findings on imaging studies is key, both for selecting the adequate treatment option and to distinguish this condition from other causes of anterior knee pain. Although there is currently no definitive etiology for the syndrome, its identification is important for both diagnosis and treatment.
Hollow fiber based liquid phase microextraction with high performance liquid chromatography for the determination of trace carvedilol (β-blocker) in biological fluids
Authors: Makahleh Ahmad , Cheng Kek Wan , Saad Bahruddin , Aboul-Enein Hassan Y.
Published: August 2019

A hollow-fiber liquid-phase microextraction (HF-LPME), followed by high-performance liquid chromatography–ultraviolet (HPLC–UV) method for the trace determination of carvedilol (β-blocker) in biological fluids, has been described. The separation was achieved using Inertsil ODS-3 C18(250 mm × 4.6 mm, 3 μm) column with a mobile phase composition of 10 mM phosphate buffer (pH 4.0)–acetonitrile (50:50,v/v) at a flow rate of 1.0 mL/min, under isocratic elution. Several parameters (i.e., type of organic solvent, donor phase pH, concentration of acceptor phase (AP), stirring rate, extraction time, and salt addition) that affect the extraction efficiency were investigated. The optimum HF-LPME conditions were as follows: dihexyl ether as an organic solvent; donor phase pH, 10.7; 0.1 M HCl (AP); 1100-rpm stirring rate; 60-min extraction time; and no salt addition. These parameters have been confirmed using design of experiments. Under these conditions, an enrichment factor of 273-fold was achieved. Good linearity and correlation coefficient were obtained over the range 5–1000 ng/mL (r2 = 0.9994). Limits of detection and quantitation were 1.2 and 3.7 ng/mL, respectively. The relative standard deviation at 3 different concentration levels (5, 500, and 1000 ng/mL) were less than 13.2%. Recoveries for spiked urine and plasma were in the range 80.7–114%. The proposed method is simple, sensitive, and suitable for the determination of carvedilol in biological fluids.
A United Description for Dark Matter and Dark Energy
Authors: On Vo Van
Published: August 2019

In this paper, we show a unifying description to the dark matter and dark energy. This description does not demand dark energy with the anti-gravitational property. It also points out a lower limit of the average mass of the particles of cosmological energy (ordinary matter, dark matter and dark energy particles) \(\bar{m}\gg 54\) eV. The coincident problem between the density of dark energy and one of matter is a clear fact.
Small Cell and Squamous Cell Carcinomas of the Head and Neck: Comparing Incidence and Survival Trends Based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Data
Authors: Bean Marta B. , Liu Yuan , Jiang Renjain , Steuer Conor Ernst , Patel Mihir , McDonald Mark William , Higgins Kristin Ann , Beitler Jonathan Jay , Shin Dong Moon , Saba Nabil F.
Published: August 2019

Background

Small cell carcinomas of the head and neck (SmCCHNs) are rare neoplasms with an unfavorable prognosis. Population-based data describing survival and prognostic factors for SmCCHN are limited.

Methods

Data were obtained from the U.S. National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database for 1973–2013. Patient and tumor-related characteristics for SmCCHN were compared with those for squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SCCHN). Survival was compared by constructing Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard models with and without propensity score matching.

Results

The data set included 609 SmCCHN and 227,943 SCCHN cases. Both histological subtypes were more common in men than women and more common in white patients. SmCCHN was most likely to originate in the larynx, glottis and hypopharynx, or salivary glands and to present with more advanced stage and grade. SCCHN was most likely to originate in the oral cavity and was found infrequently in the salivary glands. Overall 5- and 10-year survival estimates were 27% and 18% for SmCCHN and 46% and 31% for SCCHN, respectively. In multivariable survival analyses adjusting for age, sex, race, marital status, year of diagnosis, stage, grade, and receipt of radiation, the hazard ratio (HR) comparing SmCCHN with SCCHN was 1.53 with a 95% confidence interval (CI) from 1.39 to 1.68. Average 5-year survival varied widely between the histologic types when comparing tumor sites: 14.5% for SmCCHN versus 48.9% for SCCHN in the oropharynx. In propensity score matched analyses, the corresponding HR was 1.27 (95% CI, 1.15–1.40).

Conclusion

Compared with SCCHN, SmCCHN carries a worse survival and is more likely to present with more advanced stage.

Implications for Practice

Small cell carcinoma of the head and neck (SmCCHN) is a rare subtype of head and neck cancer. In this Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) data analysis, the characteristics and survival of SmCCHN are compared with those of the common squamous cell carcinoma of the head and neck. Results show that SmCCHN carries a worse prognosis and tends to present at a more advanced stage; SmCCHN also is ten times more likely to originate from the salivary glands. These findings may have implications for clinical practice, as location of the tumor may strongly associate with the pathologic diagnosis. If a SmCCHN is diagnosed, a disseminated disease is likely; hence vigilance in staging procedures is indicated.
Tamar Bridge, UK: a decade of maintenance from 2010 to 2020
Authors: Baron Stephen , Urbans Beverley , Cole Richard
Published: August 2019

Opened in 1961, Tamar Bridge in Plymouth, UK, is now approaching the mid-point of its original design life and has already undergone a significant modification during the strengthening and widening works of 2001. The 335 m span suspension bridge is owned and operated by the Tamar Bridge and Torpoint Ferry Joint Committee and raises virtually all of its operational and maintenance revenue from traffic tolls. The current decade has included some significant programmes of maintenance with further works planned through to 2020. Specific projects have included resurfacing, comprehensive improvements to access provisions, main-deck expansion joint replacements, truss steelwork recoating and suspension system remedial works. It is hoped that these will secure a continued high level of reliability of service for bridge users over the coming decades while minimising the requirements for raising additional maintenance funding in the form of toll increases.
Characteristics of Arun Carbonate Reservoir and Its Implication To Optimize the Most Potential Gas Resource Zone In Arun Gas Field, Aceh, Indonesia
Authors: Atmadibrata Riza , Muslim Dicky , Hirnawan R. Febri , Abdurrokhim Abdurrokhim
Published: August 2019

DOI:10.17014/ijog.6.2.209-222Since the discovery of major oil and gas reserves in carbonate rocks in the Middle East, carbonate reservoirs became important to the petroleum industry. Carbonate rocks have covered only 20% of the sedimentary rock records. However, carbonate reservoirs hold 50% of the world petroleum reserves. Arun Carbonate Reservoir is one of the biggest proven retrograde gas reservoirs in the world. After more than thirty years of production, Arun Carbonate Reservoir had an initial gas in place of 14.1 TCF residual hydrocarbon gas. The issue makes Arun Carbonate Reservoir became an interest to be studied for the development and production of hydrocarbon in other carbonate reservoirs in Indonesia. One of the fundamental topics to be studied is the characteristics of Arun Carbonate Reservoir itself. The characteristics of carbonate reservoir usually cause a lot of geologic and engineering problems in the development and production of hydrocarbon reserves. This paper aims to identify the characteristics of Arun Carbonate Reservoir and its implication to delineate the potential gas resource zone in the Arun Gas Field, Aceh, Indonesia. The data from sixteen wells have been examined through several multidiscipline studies: geophysics (well logging), geology (facies, lithology and diagenetic analyses), and petrophysics (core analysis). The result of this study shows that Arun Carbonate Reservoir (N5-N8) contains limestone 92%, 5% dolomite, and 3% dolomitic limestone (or other), and petrophysically have 16% porosity and 13.5 md permeability in average. Arun Carbonate Reservoir is divided into four facies (Reef, Near Reef, Inter Reef Lagoon, and Middle Shelf). Of four facies in Arun Carbonate Reservoir, only two facies which can be categorized as productive facies: Reef and Lagoonal Facies. The potential zones of hydrocarbon resources have vertically been documented in Arun Carbonate Reservoir.
A Minor Redefinition of M2
Authors: Whitesell William C. , Collins Sean
Published: August 2019

This paper recommends redefining M2 by shifting overnight wholesale RPs and overnight Eurodollars from non-M1 M2 to non-M2 M3. The overnight components are quite volatile and difficult to measure accurately. Their movements no longer exhibit the negative correlation with demand deposits that had been observed in 1980, when these components were originally included in M2. The redefinition does not affect the quarterly and annual behavior of M2, nor its relationship to interest rates and income.
Bubbles as Payoffs at Infinity
Authors: Gilles Christian , LeRoy Stephen F.
Published: August 2019

We define rational bubbles to be securities with payoffs occurring in the infinitely distant future and investigate the behavior of bubble values. We extend our analysis to a setting of uncertainty. In an infinite-horizon arbitrage-free model of asset prices, we interpret the money market account as the value of a particular bubble; a similar interpretation holds for other assets related to the state-price deflator and to payoffs on bonds maturing in the distant future. We present three applications of this characterization of bubbles.
Commercial Banks and Real Estate Lending: The Texas Experience
Authors: Cole Rebel A. , Eisenbeis Robert A. , Horvitz Paul M.
Published: August 2019

This study analyzes the performance of Texas commercial banks specializing in mortgage lending during the late 1980s and early 1990s to investigate how representative was their experience as compared with that of banks across the country concentrating in real estate lending. The results show that Texas real estate banks (REBs) performed very poorly during the 1980s and early 1990s, but this was because the Texas REBs were clearly different from the majority of the banks classified as REBs in the rest of the country. Texas REBs invested more heavily in commercial mortgages than did other banks. In a poor real estate market, these loans performed very poorly. The analysis indicates that the Texas experience is not a basis for rejecting the view that the commercial banking industry can safely replace the declining thrift industry as a major source of residential mortgage financing.
Around and Around: The Expectations Hypothesis
Authors: Fisher Mark , Gilles Christian
Published: August 2019

We show how to construct arbitrage-free models of he term structure of interest rates in which various expectations hypotheses can hold. McCulloch (1993) provided a Gaussian non-Markovian example of the unbiased expectations hypothesis (U--EH), thereby contradicting the assertion by Cox, Ingersoll, and Ross (CIR, 1981) that only the so-called local expectations hypothesis could hold. We generalize that example in three ways: (i) We characterize the U--EH in terms of forward rates; (ii) we extend this characterization to a class of expectations hypotheses that includes all of those considered by CIR; and (iii) we construct stationary Markovian and non-Gaussian economies. The building block is a maturity-dependent vector that travels around a circle at a constant speed as maturity increases.
Compensation Incentives and Risk Taking Behavior: Evidence from Mutual Funds
Authors: Orphanides Athanasios
Published: August 2019

This paper examines the role of compensation contracts in determining risk taking decisions by money managers in the financial industry. A methodology is developed for empirically testing and assessing the magnitude of the effect that incentive contracts have on risk taking in the mutual fund industry using panel data. The methodology exploits the within-year cross sectional variation in the performance of mutual funds to identify systematic time series variation in risk taking. Growth and growth and income mutual funds in the 1976 to 1993 period are examined. The evidence suggests that incentive compensation has substantial influence on risk decisions. A strong seasonal component on average risk is present with risk reaching a peak in the first quarter of the year. However the relationship between within-year performance, especially towards year-end, appears to have changed over time. For losing managers, excess risk taking appears early in the sample but not in later years. For winning managers, reductions in risk taking appears towards year-end in later years but not early in the sample.
Endogenous Price Stickiness and Business Cycle Persistence
Authors: Kiley Michael T.
Published: August 2019

Both imperfect information and sticky prices allow nominal shocks to act as business cycle impulses, but only sticky prices propagate the real effects of nominal shocks. A simple model of imperfect information and sticky prices developed herein indicates that high rates of inflation lead to less price stickiness, and hence less persistent output fluctuations. Estimation of the model, as well as simple autocorrelations of real output, indicate that indeed output fluctuations are less persistent in high inflation economies. These results lend little support to models in which output persistence is explained through persistent real shocks, capital accumulation, or adjustment costs.
The Opportunistic Approach to Disinflation
Authors: Orphanides Athanasios , Wilcox David W.
Published: August 2019

This paper explores the theoretical foundations of a new approach to monetary policy. Proponents of this approach hold that when inflation is moderate but still above the long-run objective, the Fed should not take deliberate anti-inflation action, but rather should wait for external circumstances-such as favorable supply shocks and unforeseen recessions-to deliver the desired reduction in inflation. While waiting for such circumstances to arise, the Fed should aggressively resist incipient increases in inflation. This strategy has come to be known as "the opportunistic approach to disinflation." We deduce policymaker preferences that rationalize the opportunistic approach as the optimal strategy for disinflation in the context of a model that is standard in other respects. The policymaker who is endowed with these preferences tends to focus on stabilizing output when inflation is low, but on fighting inflation when inflation is high. We contrast the opportunistic approach to amore conventional strategy derived from strictly quadratic preferences.
Minimum Wage Effects of Employment and School Enrollment: Reply to Evans and Turner
Authors: Wascher William L. , Neumark David
Published: August 2019

In earlier work, we presented results suggesting that minimum wage increases have important consequences for both the employment opportunities of youths and their decision to enroll in school. In this paper, we show that the recent claim made by William Evans and Mark Turner that our results are sensitive to changes in the definition of the enrollment rate is based upon an analysis that uses a mismeasured minimum wage index. When the data are constructed properly, our original conclusions are not affected by changes in the enrollment definition.
Is "Learning-by-Exporting" Important? Micro-dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco
Authors: Clerides Sofronis , Lach Saul , Tybout James
Published: August 2019

Is there any empirical evidence that firms become more efficient after becoming exporters? Do firms that become exporters generate positive spillovers for domestically-oriented producers in their industry or region? In this paper we analyze the causal links between exporting and productivity using firm-level panel data from three semi-industrialized economies. Representing export market participation and production costs as jointly dependent autoregressive processes, we look for evidence that firms' stochastic cost process shifts when they break into foreign markets. We find that relatively more efficient firms become exporters, and that their costs are not affected by previous export market participation. This implies that self-selection of the more efficient firms into the export market, and not learning-by-exporting, explains the efficiency gap between exporter and non-exporters previously documented in the literature. Further, we find some evidence that exporters reduce the costs of breaking into foreign markets for domestically oriented producers, but do not appear to help these producers become more efficient.
Taxation of Labor Income and the Demand for Risky Assets
Authors: Elmendorf Douglas W. , Kimball Miles S.
Published: August 2019

It is well known that the implicit insurance provided by labor income taxes can reduce total saving. We show that this insurance can change the composition of saving as well, because the reduction in labor-income risk may affect the amount of financial risk that an individual chooses to bear. Given plausible restrictions on preferences, any change in taxes that reduces an individual's labor-income risk and does not make her worse off will lead her to invest more in risky assets. This effect can be quantitatively important for realistic changes in tax rates.
Debt Maturity and the Use of Interest Rate Derivatives by Nonfinancial Firms
Authors: Fenn George W. , Post Mitchell A. , Sharpe Steven A.
Published: August 2019

We develop and test a simple model of a firm's optimal debt maturity and its demand for interest rate swaps using 1994 data of over 4000 nonfinancial corporations. As in other models of derivative use, ours predicts a systematic relationship between a firm's swap position and the interest-sensitivity of its cash flow. We test this by estimating the cross-sectional relationship between a firm's swap position and: (1) the amount of short-term and floating-rate debt in its capital structure; and (2) the interest-sensitivity of its EBITD. We find strong evidence that firms use swaps to hedge interest rate risk arising from debt obligations but little evidence that they hedge interest rate risks from operating income. Consistent with theories of swap use (Arak et al., 1988, Wall, 1989, and Titman, 1992), our model also predicts that firms that avoid using swaps because of "transactions costs" issue less short-term debt than swap users, since the former are unable to hedge the resulting interest rate risk. We find this to be the case.
Generalized Spectral Estimation
Authors: Berkowitz Jeremy
Published: August 2019

This paper provides a famework for estimating parameters in a wide class of dynamic rational expectations models. The framework recognizes that RE models are often meant to match the data only in limited ways. In particular, interest may focus on a subset of frequencies. This paper designs a frequency domain version of GMM. The estimator has several advantages over traditional GMM. Aside from allowing band-restricted estimation, it does not require making arbitrary instrument or weighting matrix choices. The framework also includes least squares, maximum likelihood, and band restricted maximum likelihood as special cases.
Forecasting the Forecasts of Others: Expectational Heterogeneity and Aggregate Dynamics
Authors: Bomfim Antulio N.
Published: August 2019

I construct a dynamic general equilibrium model where agents differ in the way they form expectations. Sophisticated agents form model-consistent expectations. Rule-of-thumb agents' expectations are based on an intuitive forecasting rule. All agents solve standard dynamic optimization problems and face strategic complementarity in production. Extending the work of Haltiwanger and Waldman (1989), I show that even a minority of rule-of-thumb forecasters can have a significant effect on the aggregate properties of the economy. For instance, as agents try to forecast each others' behavior they effectively strengthen the internal propagation mechanism of the economy. I solve the model by assuming a hierarchical information structure similar to the one in Townsend's (1983) model of informationally dispersed markets. The quantitative results are obtained by calibrating the model and running a battery of sensitivity tests on key parameters. The analysis highlights the role of strategic complementarity in the heterogeneous expectations literature and precisely quantify many qualitative claims about the aggregate implications of expectational heterogeneity.
The Endogeneity of Employment Adjustment Costs: The Tradeoff between Efficiency and Flexibility
Authors: Fleischman Charles A.
Published: August 2019

This paper models a firm's choice of employment adjustment costs as one component of its choice of production process. In making a one-time choice of production process, firms tradeoff increased flexibility--the reduced cost of changing levels of production--against the diminished efficiency of producing a given level of output. The model predicts that firms facing greater volatility in expected employment choose production processes that entail relatively low costs of adjusting employment. Using estimates of adjustment costs and employment volatility for four-digit manufacturing industries, the paper finds empirical support for the model: Among four-digit industries facing similar choices of production process, those with more volatile employment tend to have lower costs of adjusting employment. Moreover, the paper finds that interindustry heterogeneity in the amplitude of deterministic seasonal fluctuations in employment is more important than the variance of stochastic employment fluctuations in explaining the choice of adjustment costs.
Movements of Wages over the Business Cycle: An Intra-Firm View
Authors: Wilson Beth Anne
Published: August 2019

This paper tests the hypothesis that firms adjust to the business cycle by altering employment through promotion and hiring and holding the salary structure and salaries assigned to jobs relatively constant. Two comprehensive firm-level panel datasets are used to examine salary setting and worker movement within firms. The salary structure is found to be rigid whereas promotion rates are cyclically sensitive. In contrast to the hypothesis, wage cyclicality in these two firms is driven by changes in salaries associated with jobs rather than by worker movement. An additional finding is that salaries in the two firms are countercyclical.
Estimating Dynamic Panel Data Models: A Practical Guide for Macroeconomists
Authors: Judson Ruth A. , Owen Ann L.
Published: August 2019

We use a Monte Carlo approach to investigate the performance of several different methods designed to reduce the bias of the estimated coefficients for dynamic panel data models estimated with the longer, narrower panels typical of macro data. We find that the bias of the least squares dummy variable approach can be significant, even when the time dimension of the panel is as large as 30. For panels with small time dimensions, we find a corrected least squares dummy variable estimator to be the best choice. However, as the time dimension of the panel increases, the computationally simpler Anderson-Hsiao estimator performs equally well.
Measuring the Social Return to R&D
Authors: Jones Charles I. , Williams John C.
Published: August 2019

A large, empirical literature reports estimates of the rate of return to R&D; ranging from 30 percent to over 100 percent, supporting the notion that there is too little private investment in research. This conclusion is challenged by the new growth theory. We derive analytically the relationship between the social rate of return to R&D; and the coefficient estimates of the empirical literature. We show that these estimates represent a lower bound on the true social rate of return. Using a conservative estimate of the rate of return to R&D; of about 30 percent, optimal R&D; investment is at least four times larger than actual investment.
Credit Derivatives in Banking: Useful Tools for Managing Risk?
Authors: Duffee Gregory R. , Zhou Chunsheng
Published: August 2019

We model the effects on banks of the introduction of a market for credit derivatives--in particular, credit default swaps. A bank can use such swaps to temporarily transfer credit risks of their loans to others, reducing the likelihood that defaulting loans would trigger the bank's financial distress. Because credit derivatives are more flexible at transferring risks than are other, more established tools, such as loan sales without recourse, these instruments make it easier for banks to circumvent the "lemons" problem caused by banks' superior information about the credit quality of their loans. However, we find that the introduction of a credit derivatives market is not necessarily desirable because it can cause other markets for loan risk-sharing to break down. In this case, the existence of a credit derivatives market will lead to a greater risk of bank insolvency.
The Pre-Commitment Approach: Using Incentives to Set Market Risk Capital Requirements
Authors: Kupiec Paul H. , O'Brien James M.
Published: August 2019

This paper develops a model of bank behavior that focuses on the interaction between the incentives created by fixed-rate deposit insurance and a bank's choice of its loan portfolio and its market-traded financial instruments. The model is used to analyze the consequences of the Federal Reserve Board's proposed pre-commitment approach (PCA) for setting market risk capital requirements for bank trading portfolios. Under the PCA, a bank determines its own market risk capital requirement and is subject to a known regulatory penalty should its trading activities generate subsequent losses that exceed its market risk capital commitment.
A Jump-Diffusion Approach to Modeling Credit Risk and Valuing Defaultable Securities
Authors: Zhou Chunsheng
Published: August 2019

The existing structural models of credit risk have relied almost exclusively on diffusion processes to model the evolution of firm value. While a diffusion approach is convenient, it has produced very disappointing results in empirical application. Jones, Mason, and Rosenfeld (1984) find that the credit spreads on corporate bonds are too high to be matched by the diffusion approach. Also, because the instantaneous default probability of a healthy firm is zero under a continuous process, the diffusion approach predicts that the term structure of credit spreads should always start at zero and slope upward for firms that are not currently in financial distress. Empirical literature shows, however, that the actual credit spread curves are sometimes flat or even downward-sloping. If a diffusion approach cannot capture the basic features of credit risk, what approach can? This paper develops a new structural approach to valuing default-risky securities by modeling the evolution of firm value as a jump-diffusion process. Under a jump-diffusion process, a firm can default instantaneously because of a sudden drop in its value. With this characteristic, a jump-diffusion model can match the size of credit spreads on corporate bonds and can generate various shapes of yield spread curves and marginal default rate curves. The model also links recovery rates to firm value at default in a natural way so that variation in recovery rates is endogenously generated in the model. The model is also consistent with many other stylized empirical facts in the credit-risk literature.
Extracting Information from Trading Volume
Authors: Dupont Dominique
Published: August 2019

This paper shows how to infer information about any random variable from trading volume, assuming that the random variable and the traders' demands are symmetrically (and then normally) distributed around zero. The volume-based conditional expectation of such a random variable is zero, while the covariance between its absolute value and volume is positive if the variable is jointly normally distributed with the traders' demands. In that case, numerical examples indicate that the volume-based conditional probability of extreme asset value realizations (positive or negative) increases with volume. These results, developed in a market-clearing framework, apply also to market-making frameworks. Finally, the paper develops a simple model where transaction costs can generate a positive covariance between price and trading volume.