bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Long-term Factors Underlying Peace in Contemporary Western Civilization
Authors: MELKO MATTHEW
Published: March 2007

The absence of war within Western Civilization since World War II may not be the result of nuclear deterrence. It may be that nuclear weapons have not been used because of structural factors that are responsible for the peace. Measured in several ways, the present period looks as though it may be the most peaceful one in the past quarter millennium, probably the most peaceful in modern Western history. The factors behind this peace may have to do with the combination of long-term fluctuations that produces alternate crises and `ages', and with a particular way of seeing that is as characteristic of the present period as what we now perceive as `Victorian' was for the period between the Congress of Vienna and World War I. If that should be the case, we may expect short-term pressures for arms reduction, but long-term factors that would increase tension and danger several decades hence.
Structural Causes of Oppositional Political Terrorism: Towards a Causal Model
Authors: Ross Jeffrey Ian
Published: March 2007

The most prominent causes of oppositional political terrorism can be explained by three categories of theories: structural, psychological, and rational choice. While structural variables are most abundant, and much easier to operationalize and measure than psychological or rational choice factors, they have rarely been integrated into a causal model. Those models and theories that incorporate structural variables, however, suffer from a number of problems. The author analyzes these shortcomings then develops an original model through an examination of a complex array of structural factors descriptive of and associated with the dynamics of terrorism. To this end, the author looks at theories of terrorism, case studies of countries that have experienced terrorism, and movements that consistently relied on the use of terrorism to achieve their political objectives. The resultant factors are integrated into categories, and propositions concerning interactions are presented. Then a sketch of a general structural causal model of the conditions of terrorism is posited. The model is a better foundation for qualitative and quantitative analysis of the causes of terrorism.
One Thing Leads to Another: Recurrent Militarized Disputes in Latin America, 1816-1986
Authors: Hensel Paul R.
Published: March 2007

Most systematic research on interstate conflict has overlooked the effects of one confrontation on subsequent conflict between the same adversaries. This article explores three aspects of recurrent militarized interstate disputes: the likelihood of a subsequent dispute between the same states, the interval between disputes involving the same adversaries, and characteristics of the initiators of recurrent disputes. These three queries are addressed through empirical examination of recurrent militarized conflict in Latin America from 1816-1986. Subsequent conflict between the same two adversaries is found to be more likely when territorial issues are under contention, and less likely when the first confrontation ends in a negotiated compromise outcome. The next confrontation tends to occur sooner after disputes that ended in stalemate, rather than in compromise or in a decisive outcome, and when territorial issues are at stake. The level of escalation reached in the dispute had little effect by itself on the timing of later conflict, but stronger results were produced in interaction with the type of issue at stake. Similar results were obtained both for recurrent conflict overall, and for recurrent conflict over the same contentious issues as before, but the combination of dispute outcomes, contentious issues, and escalation produced much stronger results with respect to the likelihood and timing of future conflict over the same issue(s). Additionally, the results did not provide overwhelming support for any single ideal type of characteristics of recurrent dispute initiators, with different initiation patterns following different types of dispute outcomes.
Secrecy and International Relations
Authors: Gibbs David N.
Published: March 2007

This article analyzes the question of information control and how it influences the conduct and the study of international relations. Three theories are advanced as possible explanations for secrecy: The first, the External Threat explanation, suggests that government secrecy is designed to protect sensitive information from external enemies. The second explanation, the Bureaucratic Politics explanation, views secrecy as a relatively unsystematic process that results from the (collectively) irrational features in any government bureaucracy. The third explanation, the Internal Threat approach, argues that government officials use secrecy to mislead the populations of their own countries. These three explanations are applied to a case study of US information policy with regard to the Congo Crisis of 1960-1. The article concludes that the Congo case tends to support the Internal Threat explanation of secrecy.
The Greek - Turkish Conflict and Greek Military Expenditure 1960-92
Authors: Kollias Christos G.
Published: March 2007

Greece and Turkey, both members of the NATO alliance, are two of the major players in the Balkans. Over the past three decades their bilateral relations have not always been smooth. In fact, their strategic interaction has two contradictory elements: they are members of the same alliance while at the same time they are state-to-state adversaries. Both countries yearly allocate an appreciable share of their national income to defence. In the case of Greece its defence burden has invariably been the highest among NATO and European Union countries, averaging 5.6% of GDP. Empirical findings reported by this study indicate that Greek defence expenditure is primarily influenced by Turkish military capabilities. Because of size and population constraints Greece appears to respond to the military capabilities of its adversary by enhancing the capital intensity of its armed forces, which, in principle, offsets its quantitative disadvantage. The issues that divide the two countries are complex and rooted in years of conflict and mutual distrust. Efforts to resolve the Greek-Turkish disputes have so far been unsuccessful and rapprochements have invariably been short-lived. Given the strategic entropy of the post-bipolar Balkan region the proliferation of the Greek-Turkish rivalry could have important implications for the stability of the whole region. An arms control agrement aiming at achieving a balance of power between the two countries at lower levels of military spending and armament could reduce the costs of arming and assist in the reduction of tension in the area. However, a stable, long-term relaxation of tension can only be the result of a solution to the major issues that divide Greece and Turkey. Consequently, as long as the Greek-Turkish disputes remain unresolved, Greek military expenditure will remain substantially higher than that of other NATO and European Union members.
US Foreign Policy Towards Rogue States and Weapon Proliferation
Authors: Dokhanchi Khalil
Published: March 2007

How do sub-national entities, such as bureaucracies and individuals, respond to major changes in the international system, such as the end of the Cold War? Three recent studies of the USA which examine US foreign policy and the rise of Iraq as a rogue state, US policy toward rogue states, and the US role in supplying weapons to various countries, particularly those in the Middle East, argue that they tend to pursue existing policies despite global changes. If these analyses of the USA are correct it would suggest that future studies of other states would also indicate continuity rather than discontinuity.
War Termination
Authors: MASSOUD TANSA GEORGE
Published: March 2007

War termination, a critical aspect of war, is central to understanding the war process as a whole. Yet, this field of study, which is concerned with how wars can be brought to an end once they have started, remains neglected. Research on this topic, much of which dates back to the 1960s, has included diverse theoretical approaches - from the general to specific. The general approach addresses the forms and consequences of war outcomes, whereas the specific approach is more concerned with particular variables that explain why wars end. This article examines the contributions researchers have made to this field and structures a discussion around three critical, common factors: military dimension; costs; and terms of settlement. The findings show that although there exists no one theory or consensus on why and when wars end, researchers have successfully identified a group of causes. However, the significance of each cause is likely to vary depending on the specific conditions of each war. The article concludes by calling for more research on this topic in the areas of description, explanation, and testing of hypotheses.
Armed Conflict and The Environment: A Critique of the Literature
Authors: Gleditsch Nils Petter
Published: March 2007

Conflict over scarce resources, such as minerals, fish, water, and particularly territory, is a traditional source of armed struggle. Recently, wideranging claims have been made to the effect that environmental degradation will increase resource scarcity and therefore contribute to an increase in armed conflict. So far, there has been much controversy and little relevant systematic study of this phenomenon. Most scholarship on the relationship between resources, the environment, and armed conflict suffers from one or more of the following problems: (1) there is a lack of clarity over what is meant by `environmental conflict'; (2) researchers engage in definitional and polemical exercises rather than analysis; (3) important variables are neglected, notably political and economic factors which have a strong influence on conflict and mediate the influence of resource and environmental factors; (4) some models become so large and complex that they are virtually untestable; (5) cases are selected on values of the dependent variable; (6) the causality of the relationship is reversed; (7) postulated events in the future are cited as empirical evidence; (8) studies fail to distinguish between foreign and domestic conflict; and (9) confusion reigns about the appropriate level of analysis. While no publications are characterized by all of these problems, many have several of them. This article identifies a few lights in the wilderness and briefly outlines a program of research.
Persistent Pacifism: How Activist Commitment is Developed and Sustained
Authors: Downton James , Wehr Paul
Published: March 2007

How and why do activists persist in their commitment to a social movement beyond its initial mobilization phase? How do they manage their commitments? What role does creativity play in helping them keep their peace commitment intact over the long term? These are questions explored in this study. Based on extensive interviews with thirty persistent peace activists, a theory of sustained commitment is developed. It encompasses how people become available for peace activism and how political and social contexts affect their willingness to join and stay. It also identifies important social and personal factors that help to sustain commitment. These include creating an activist identity, integrating peace work into everyday life, holding beliefs that sustain activism, feeling bonded to a peace group, cultivating opportunities for action, sharing a peace vision with other activists, and managing responsibilities, criticism, and burnout. Persistent peace activists are rational in selecting courses of action, but also creative in the way they fashion their lives, manage their commitments, avoid burnout, and design and carry out projects. This creativity is an important factor contributing to pacifist persistence, yet it is a topic that has been largely neglected in collective action research. The authors argue for a stronger emphasis on `creative action' in future research about activists and how they sustain their commitment in the face of many odds.
The Influence of Religious Legitimacy on Grievance Formation by Ethno-Religious Minorities
Authors: Fox Jonathan
Published: March 2007

While there is considerable agreement that religion can bolster the legitimacy of governments, those who oppose them, and just about any political action by any individual or group, there has been no previous large- N cross-sectional study of the subject. This study tests the effects of religious legitimacy on grievance formation by ethnic minorities using data on 105 ethno-religious minorities from the Minorities at Risk Phase 3 dataset as well as data on religion collected independently. For operational purposes, a minority is an ethno-religious minority when at least 80% of that group's members are of different religious denominations than that of the dominant ethnic group of the state in which they live. The findings show that religious legitimacy does influence grievance formation but that influence is not the monolithically positive influence that would be expected. Religious legitimacy tends to facilitate the formation of grievances over non-religious issues when religion is not an issue in the conflict but deters the formation of grievances over these issues when religion is an issue. The presence of religious legitimacy is also positively associated more indirectly and weakly with the formation of religious grievances.
The Effects of Alternative Measures of Delinquent Peers on Self-Reported Delinquency
Authors: ZHANG LENING , MESSNER STEVEN F.
Published: March 2007

This article examines two alternative measures of delinquent peers based on reports from adolescents and reports from parents. The authors focus on three issues: (1) Do parental and adolescent reports of delinquent peers reflect the same underlying construct? (2) If not, how does the effect on delinquency of a measure of delinquent peers based on parental reports compare with that of a measure based on adolescents' reports when the two measures are included in the same equation? (3) Given possible contamination in measurement, can respondents' reports of peer delinquency be regarded simply as additional indicators of self-reported delinquency? Structural equation modeling is used to address these issues with data from the National Youth Survey. The results indicate that parental and adolescent reports of delinquent peers do not reflect a single latent construct. Furthermore, the measure of delinquent peers based on parental reports yields a significant effect on subsequent self-reported delinquency (controlling for self-reports of prior delinquency) whereas the measure based on adolescent reports has no significant effect. Further analyses of measurement and substantive models indicate that there is appreciable (but not complete) overlap between adolescent-reported peer delinquency and self-reported delinquency.
An Empirical Test of Differential Association Theory*
Authors: Reiss Albert J. , Rhodes A. Lewis
Published: March 2007

The main empirical question for this paper is whether boys in close friendship groups have the same specific patterns of delinquent behavior. The delinquent behavior of boys in close friendship triads was compared with that expected for six kinds of delinquent behavior. Two ways of accounting for the observed distribution were examined, one based on a random model and the other on a deduc tion from differential association theory. We conclude that the probability of an individual committing a specific kind of delinquent act depends upon the commission of the act by other members of the triad, though this is not independent of the social class of boys. The actual delinquent behavior of boys in triads departs somewhat less from the random than the differential association hypothesis, at least for the more serious offenses.
Differences in Parole Decisions Associated with Decision-Makers
Authors: Gottfredson Don M. , Ballard Kelley B.
Published: March 2007

Prison sentences set by a paroling authority vary, as expected, with characteristics of the offenders. Is part of the variation in sentences, however, associated not with the offenders but with the persons responsible for the decisions?

Comparisons of sentences set by various parole board members may be misleading if differences in the types of offenders con cerned are not taken into account. If an experimental study of the question with adequate controls for "types of offenders" is not feasible, statistical controls might be substituted.

The purpose of this paper is to illustrate a method for com paring decisions by parole board members. Study of the sentences of 2,053 men paroled in one year, analyzed according to six parole board members who participated in the hearing, demon strated the need for the study suggested. The groups of offenders were not directly comparable. When relevant characteristics of the offenders were taken into account, it was found that the decision-makers tended to make similar decisions.
The Application of Self-Esteem Measures in a Correctional Setting: II. Changes in Self-Esteem during Incarceration
Authors: Bennett Lawrence A.
Published: March 2007

In an earlier study the reliability of a self-esteem measure was established for application in a correctional setting. In this study the instrument was used for repeated measurement of the level of self-esteem throughout the period of incarceration. The hy pothesis we examined was an outgrowth of the work of Wheeler, which suggests that self-esteem would increase after the initial period of institutionalization, remains fairly high during the midportion of the individual's stay, and drops to the original level as release from the institution is contemplated. Our results failed to support this hypothesis. For most inmates in our sample, self- esteem increased during the first few months but stayed high throughout the remainder of the institutional stay, including the prerelease period. Various possibilities explaining this find ing are discussed.
The Correction Officer Subculture and Organizational Change
Authors: Duffee David
Published: March 2007

Training and manpower development in correction has become an increasingly important issue. Most such training on the cor rectional officer level is based upon an academic model of educa tion. This kind of training approach is likely to be ineffective because of a hypothesized officer subculture, the values of which are antagonistic to the policy and values implicit in the training. Three scales, measuring correctional policy, supervisory behavior, and social climate of institutions, were administered in the correction department of a northeastern state in order to test the hypothesis. It was found that officers differed considerably from managers on both policy and social climate. A major ex planatory factor appeared to be the way in which the officers perceived themselves to be managed. Suggestions are made for changing the officer subculture values based upon small group dynamics techniques that affect the way in which officers perceive themselves to be managed and alter the perceived rewards for behaving in ways compatible with managerial policy.
Characteristics of Youths in a Sample of Correctional Programs
Authors: Newcomb Theodore M.
Published: March 2007

Responses of youths in a representative sample of all known correctional programs in the United States were analyzed, primarily in terms of relationships among program size and of individuals' length of stay and precommitment and postcommitment offense levels. Certain combinations of all but the last of these are shown to be systematically related to postcommit ment offense levels. Findings suggest that the processes by which program variables affect postcommitment offense levels may be mediated by varying degrees and kinds of peer influence.
Community Tolerance and Measures of Delinquency
Authors: Erickson Maynard L. , Gibbs Jack P.
Published: March 2007

van Vechten's toleration quotient will have no impact on deviance theory without research on the empirical relation between the quotient 's numerator (volume of deviance) and denominator (tolerance of deviance). This relation was examined by comparing attitudes toward, self-reported extent of, and arrest and court-referral rates for various juvenile offenses within and across four Arizona communities. Three variables were used as indicators of volume of delinquency: (1) self-reported offenses by juveniles, (2) number of juveniles arrested, and (3) number of juveniles referred to court. Three variables were used as measures of community intolerance of delinquency: (1) intensity of public disapproval, expressed as a magnitude, (2) severity of public opinion, expressed as a choice of an appropriate reaction to delinquency (e.g., commit ment to a reformatory), and (3) the objective certainty of legal reactions to delinquency, as measured by the relation between self-reported offenses and self-reported arrests and/or court referrals. Generally, there is a fairly, close inverse relation between intolerance as measured by severity of public opinion and extent of delinquency as measured by rate of self-reported offenses.
An Analysis of the Type of Criminal Activity Using the Logit Model
Authors: Witte Ann D. , Schmidt Peter
Published: March 2007

Using the logit model, the authors investigate the determinants of the na ture of criminal activity an individual will pursue after release from prison. The likelihood of conviction increases the younger the offender is at release, the more previous convictions he has, the more rule violations he committed during his last prison sentence, the longer the follow-up period, and if he is an alcoholic or user of hard drugs. Among all possibilities of conviction and no conviction, an individual has a greater probability of being convicted of a crime other than an offense against persons or property if he is supervised and married when released and was relatively mature in age when first arrested. A n individual whose previous imprisonment was for a crime against a person is more likely to be reconvicted for a similar crime than for any other type of offense. If the previous imprisonment was for a property crime, this seems to increase the probability of conviction for both property and person crimes, but to decrease the probability of conviction for other crimes.
The Use of Composite Scales in Perceptual Deterrence Research: A Cautionary Note
Authors: PATERNOSTER RAYMOND
Published: March 2007

Frequently, deterrence researchers have combined into composite scales items measuring attitudinal states (perceived risk, moral beliefs) and self-reported delinquency. These items have generally been offense-specific items that refer to behaviors as diverse as drug use, theft, and violence. The justification for the construction of composite scales has been based upon either the face validity of the item's content or simple factor analyses and reliability checks. This article more carefully examines the measurement properties of common scales employed in perceptual deterrence research. It is found that (1) the pooling of items across offenses and (2) the pooling of subsamples cannot be done indiscriminately. The effect of such indiscriminate pooling of items and subjects on a structural equation model of the deterrence process is examined.
One-Wave Perceptual Deterrence Research: Some Grounds for the Renewed Examination of Cross-Sectional Methods
Authors: LUNDMAN RICHARD J.
Published: March 2007

Across the past ten years serious questions have been raised about the validity of cross-sectional (“one-wave”) perceptual deterrence research. Panel (“two-wave”) designs have therefore become the preferred method of conducting perceptual deterrence research. The present article provides grounds for the renewed examination of cross-sectional designs. It begins by probing criticism of one-wave designs. Attention is then directed to problems posed by two-wave designs. Established next are two of the circumstances that enhance the validity of one-wave data. Following discussion that includes specification of an agenda for future research, the basic conclusion drawn is that exclusive reliance on panel designs is premature.
The National Punishment Survey and Public Policy Consequences
Authors: ZIMMERMAN SHERWOOD E. , VAN ALSTYNE DAVID J. , DUNN CHRISTOPHER S.
Published: March 2007

Research into the criminal justice policy formation process has made it clear that public preferences are important influences. While public preferences about punishment are often strong and well-articulated, they are largely unconstrained by the consequences associated with those choices. This study examines these policy issues as they relate to a recent national survey of public attitudes concerning punishment for criminal offenses. The potential policy consequences of the preferences expressed in the survey were estimated by applying the punishment preferences to a recent conviction cohort from New York State. Comparisons were then made between the actual outcomes in New York with those that would have occurred if the survey results had applied. As anticipated from prior research concerning public attitudes about punishment, the survey respondents were more punitive than actual practice. The additional correctional costs that would have been associated with applying those preferences to the New York offenders were also estimated and found to be very high. The implications of these results for public policy formulation are discussed.
Why is There So Little Criminal Justice Theory? Neglected Macro- and Micro-Level Links between Organization and Power
Authors: HAGAN JOHN
Published: March 2007

This article seeks an answer to the question of why there is relatively little, and no clearly predominant, criminal justice theory. The answer offered focuses on the apparent randomness of criminal justice operations. A structural-contextual theory of criminal justice is outlined, beginning with the orienting premise that the normal mode for North American, and perhaps most Western democratic systems of criminal justice, is a loosely coupled form of organization. However, atypical political environments often mandate departures from normal criminal justice operations. The thesis of the article is that neglected connections between the imposition of political power and organizational forms in the criminal justice system hold a key to understanding the operations of this system, in typical as well as atypical situations.
Gang Involvement and Delinquency among Hispanic and African-American Adolescent Males
Authors: CURRY G. DAVID , SPERGEL IRVING A.
Published: March 2007

The application of Rasch modeling to survey responses and official records of 139 Hispanic and 300 African-American males in the sixth through eighth grades at four Chicago inner-city schools is used to construct incremental measures of gang involvement and delinquency. Scale sequence and regression analysis suggest that different social processes operate in gang involvement for the two ethnic populations. In both sets of cross-sectional data, the fitting of linear structural models shows gang involvement to be an effective post hoc estimator of delinquency for these youth, whereas delinquency is not an effective estimator of gang involvement.
Neighborhoods, Markets, and Gang Drug Organization
Authors: HAGEDORN JOHN M.
Published: March 2007

Researchers have debated whether gangs are selling drugs “freelance” or whether gang drug selling is more organized. Some have speculated that gangs are evolving into organized crime. This article uses contingency theory from the literature on organizations to examine the sources of variation in drug-selling organization of gangs from Milwaukee. In the turbulent environment surrounding drug selling, inflexible vertically organized drug businesses are unlikely to be successful. The failure of this kind of entrepreneurial drug gang in Milwaukee is described. Most gang drug sales in Milwaukee were by neighborhood-based, loosely organized operations. Neighborhood-based drug-selling organization varied according to the lucrativeness and stability of the drug market. Complexity of gang drug organization generally varied inversely to the degree that drug sales were centered on the neighborhood as a market. Ethnicity may also exercise an independent effect on organization. Research needs to pay more attention to organizational theory and the neighborhood context of gang activities and organization.
A Developmental Test of Mertonian Anomie Theory
Authors: MENARD SCOTT
Published: March 2007

Merton's theory of anomie and deviant behavior has not been tested adequately. Oversimplified tests involving the relationship between crime and social class or between crime and the discrepancy between aspirations and expectations ignore both structural and social-psychological aspects of the theory, particularly the pivotal role of the mode of adaptation as an influence on the type and frequency of illegal behavior. In the present study, a careful review of Merton's writings on anomie theory is used to construct a more complete and rigorous test of the theory for respondents in early, middle, and late adolescence.
Demeanor and Arrest: Additional Evidence from Previously Unpublished Data
Authors: LUNDMAN RICHARD J.
Published: March 2007

Across more than four decades of previous research, social scientists have reported that demeanor and other extralegal factors shape police actions such as arrest. Recently, however, Klinger has asserted that all previous research is suspect because it failed to control for crime and failed to limit demeanor to legally permissible words and displays of hostility. The present research further probes this issue using previously unpublished data. The key findings are several. Demeanor matters when it is limited to legally permissible words and displays of hostility and when crime is partially controlled, although the effects of demeanor vary with how it is represented. Other extralegal variables, especially race and class, also matter. This analysis therefore provides little reason for questioning the agreement reached over four decades that demeanor and other extralegal variables shape police actions.
Further Testing of Social Disorganization Theory: An Elaboration of Sampson and Groves's “Community Structure and Crime”
Authors: VEYSEY BONITA M. , MESSNER STEVEN F.
Published: March 2007

In one of the more important studies in the criminological literature over the past decade, Sampson and Groves analyze data from 238 British neighborhoods to test the mediating effect of indicators of social disorganization variables on the relationship between structural community characteristics and crime. In this article, the authors recognize that advances in statistical theory and software allow for a more detailed analysis of Sampson and Groves's integrated theory of community-level social disorganization. Using covariance structure modeling (LISREL), the results of their analysis reveal that (1) Sampson and Groves's argument regarding the mediating effect of social disorganization variables is only partially supported, (2) social disorganization is not one construct but rather represents several mechanisms by which communities maintain stability, and (3) the resulting model may be interpreted as supportive of several theories of crime, including peer affiliation theories, as well as social disorganization.
Making Sense of Recent U.S. Crime Trends, 1980 to 1996/1998: Age Composition Effects and Other Explanations
Authors: STEFFENSMEIER DARRELL , HARER MILES D.
Published: March 2007

The authors apply age standardization methods to the Uniform Crime Reports (UCR) and the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) to assess the effects of age composition changes on long-term (1980 to 1996) and short-term trends (1992 to 1996) in index crimes. Key findings include large age composition effects on crime rates during the 1980s but diminishing effects by the mid-1990s; UCR and NCVS disagree somewhat about long-term trends but agree about short-term trends: UCR shows age-adjusted crime rates rising in the 1980s, with index crime at about the same level today as it was in 1980, whereas the NCVS shows steadily declining rates throughout the 1980 to 1996/1998 period. Both sources show across-the-board declines in crime rates during the Clinton years. The authors interpret the crime trends as due to varied changes in reporting programs as well as basic changes in society and extend the rate adjustment procedures to forecast crime trends into the next century.
An International Survey of Indexing and Its Effects
Authors: Page S.A.B. , Trollope Sandra
Published: March 2007

Though it has become increasingly popular, indexation is not a new idea. As early as 1742 Massachusetts had an issue of bonds based on a few commodities and Jevons in 1875 and Marshall in 1886 advocated the use of a standard unit of purchasing power in contracts for deferred payments.
Errors in National Institute Forecasts of Personal Incomes, Inflation and Employment, 1965-75
Authors: Dean A.J.H.
Published: March 2007

This article examines the accuracy of the National Institute's forecasts of incomes, inflation and employment from 1965 to 1975. It is found that in recent years the Institute has tended to underestimate inflation, although less seriously for the consumer price index than the other current price variables studied. The accuracy of the forecasts has generally increased in relative terms, although it has deteriorated in absolute terms. The forecasting performance in 1974 was particularly poor but there has been a distinct improvement in 1975 and 1976.
The Value and Distribution of the Benefits of North Sea Oil and Gas, 1970—1985
Authors: Page S. A. B.
Published: March 2007

Oil and gas from the North Sea will make the United Kingdom a net exporter of energy in the 1980s and supply a substantial portion of its needs through the 1990s. In value terms, the benefits are principally to the balance of payments and government revenue. The former is improved slightly relative to the pre-oil price rise position, but significantly compared with either the present balance or that of other industrial countries. The absolute size of these benefits and the share of the government in the total are extremely sensitive to the assumptions made about changes in the exchange rate, including those which result from the improvement in the balance of payments. Many decisions about the distribution of the benefits are already being taken, for example in policies for the energy sector and the exchange rate. It is therefore too late to plan to allocate all the benefits to a single purpose, and it may be undesirable to do so.
Chapter II. The World Economy
Authors: Barrell Ray , Gurney Andrew , In't Veld Jan Willem
Published: March 2007

The start of hostilities in the Gulf in January appears to have removed some of the uncertainties surrounding the oil market, and oil prices have dropped to around 20 dollars per barrel. This development should help sustain growth and reduce inflation over the next two years. Box A sets out some calculations of the effects of the change in our oil price assumptions on our forecast. The appreciation of the D-Mark bloc and the emergence of a recession in the US driven by a wave of bank failures has persuaded us to be less optimistic then we were in our last forecast. Table 1 summarises the outlook. We are forecasting a slowdown in the rate of growth in the major economies in 1991, with some recovery in 1992 and thereafter. The slowdown has already taken place in the US, the UK and Canada, whereas in 1990 Japanese and German growth was at historically high levels. Chart 1 plots levels of capacity utilisation in the major economies. Only in the US has output clearly fallen below capacity, but record levels of utilisation in Japan, Germany and France inevitably imply some slowdown in growth from recent levels.
Anti-Dumping Policy after the Uruguay Round—an Appraisal
Authors: Grimwade Nigel
Published: March 2007

In December, 1993, the round of multilateral trade negotiations known as the Uruguay Round was at last successfully concluded, seven years after it was launched at Punta del Este in Uruguay and three years later than it was scheduled to finish. This was the eighth and, almost certainly, the last round of GATT which is likely to take place on a similar basis. Up until the last minutes, it was uncertain whether any agreement would emerge. The final agreement was formally signed by the contracting parties at a gathering of Heads of State at Marrakech, Morocco and amidst great fanfare in April 1994. On January lst, 1995, the provisions of the Agreement took effect, including the establishment of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) as the successor to the GATT.
Analysing major recessions: an analytical summary of a new study of large recessions in the twentieth century
Authors: Dow Christopher
Published: March 2007

The book just published is a study of the five major recessions since 1920, and seeks to establish their causes. It focuses on the UK, but sets events there in their international context, and makes frequent comparisons with other countries. It concentrates on the major recessions not only because the effects are greater, but because behaviour in big and small recessions differ; and appears to be the first study to do so.
Writing, Knowledge Construction and Idea Framing
Authors: Tan Bee Tin
Published: March 2007

This paper is based on a small scale investigation into the way knowledge is constructed and the way ideas are framed (developed and linked with each other) in writing by overseas students on a British undergraduate programme. This paper applies the taxonomy of idea framing, which has been developed from the analysis of group interaction patterns (speaking) of the same students in academic settings, to the analysis of written data, comparing the differences and similarities between writing and speaking in terms of idea framing and knowledge construction. Two major types of idea framing are discussed: reactive framing and additive framing. This paper aims to examine the different patterns of framing of ideas employed by students in writing (the multi-dimensionality of knowledge construction and idea framing in writing) and also discusses the pedagogical implications of the study.
What Exactly Are Positive and Negative Evidence in Sla?
Authors: Bruton Anthony
Published: March 2007

While terms and their relation to the practices they supposedly represent continue to be loosely defined in SLA, the theoretical debates and empirical comparisons surrounding them will have limited consequence. The purpose of this paper is to identify the range of differing linguistic behaviours included under POSITIVE and NEGATIVE EVIDENCE with a view to offering a greater clarification of the two terms from a learner's perspective. Unfortunately, evidence can be potentially enlightening just as it can be potentially misleading, and an attempt is made to identify both the former and the latter cases. If we can understand the evidences and situations that can lead to potential confusion we may be closer to offering students actual evidence that can lead them nearer to the truth.
Stylistic Variation in the Repertoire of the Bilingual/Multilingual Speaker
Authors: Pride J.B.
Published: March 2007

There is growing recognition that perceptions and interpreta tions of stylistic choices made by native and non-native users of a language can differ greatly, often giving rise to serious failures of communication and to feelings of uncertainty and insecurity on the part of non-native users particularly. Brief examples are given, firstly of Indian scholars' reactions to prose written in English by Indians, and secondly of misunderstandings in spoken communication between native and non-native users of English. The bulk of the paper how ever draws attention to some of the differing modes of stylistic varia tion which may be observed from one speech community to another, and which form part of the linguistic repertoires of language users. These, it is suggested, constitute a major part of the linguistic and sociolinguistic contexts within which stylistic choices and stylistic judgments are made. Eight such modes of variation are reviewed, as follows: bilingual or multilingual code-switching; code-switching styles; code-mixing styles; monostylistic usage; haphazard variation; vertical shifting; horizontal shifting; and vertical with horizontal shifting. Language users operate within one, or more than one, sty listic mode at any one time, and may additionally alternate between two or more. Correspondingly, they make assessments of modes of stylistic variation, in their own and others' language, the accuracy of which may contribute much to the nature and far-reaching effects of stylistic judgments generally.
Language Curriculum Development
Authors: Richards Jack C.
Published: March 2007

In this survey paper the field of language curriculum develop ment is defined as encompassing the processes of needs analysis, goal setting, syllabus design, methodology and evaluation. Each of these curriculum processes is surveyed and issues and practices in each area are discussed. Needs analysis is discussed in relation to language pro gram planning and evaluation and different needs analysis pro cedures are examined. Different approaches to the planning of pro gram objectives in language teaching are illustrated and a distinction between behavioural, process, content and proficiency-based objec tives is made. The status of methodology within curriculum develop ment is discussed in terms of a distinction between content oriented methods and those concerned primarily with instructional processes. The role of a syllabus within each approach is illustrated. The need for an empirical basis for methodological statements is emphasized and it is suggested that the classroom processes methods generate cannot necessarily be inferred from the philosophy of the method itself. The role of evaluation is discussed and different procedures used in summative and formative evaluation in language teaching are surveyed. The paper emphasizes that language curriculum develop ment is not generally viewed in language teaching as a systematic set of interrelated processes and procedures which generate the data needed to develop sound educational practices. This may account for the lack of rigour and accountability in many language teaching pro grams.
Historical TEFL: A Case Study
Authors: Cohen David N.
Published: March 2007

This article illustrates the concept of Historical TEFL, a detail ed first-person description that fixes vivid perceptions in time and prevents their deterioration into TEFL folklore and even myth. Such classroom-centered case studies constitute a compendium of fact and opinion which, taken as a whole, function both as a professional an nal and a vade mecum. The article first presents a brief history of the Lycee de Vientiane along with a description of its physical plant, ad ministrative and faculty organization, curricula, and staff and stu dent profiles. The focus shifts in the main part of the article to a review of each of the six classes I taught in terms of their general at titude toward English and their overall performance in four areas of academic instruction: comprehension, speaking, reading, and writing. A separate concluding section surveys the conference pro gram, the main component of a structured attempt at student- teacher interaction. A set of detailed footnotes complements the text.
Demons, Karmies, and Non-devotees: Culture, Group Boundaries, and the Development of Hare Krishna in North America and Europe
Authors: ROCHFORD E. BURKE
Published: March 2007

Research on new religious movements in the West has given little attention to the role of culture. yet many new faiths represent cultural as well as spiritual alternatives. The author considers the interrelationship between social movement culture, group boundaries, and the North American and European development of the International Society for Krishna Consciousness (ISKCON), more widely known as the Hare Krishna movement. The author argues that in failing to develop an internal domestic culture in support of family life, ISKCON's communal structure is eroding as householders are forced outside the movement's ranks to seek employment and raise their families. Outside the supportive environment of the devotee community, members' religious and ISKCON commitments and involvements have been adversely affected. In making peace with the conventional world, house-holders have moved ISKCON toward becoming a congregationally-based movement in North America and Europe.
L'ISKCON au Brésil: la transformation occidentale d'une religion védique et l'incorporation de ses caractéristiques culturelles à la société locale
Authors: GUERRIERO Silas
Published: March 2007

ISKCON is one of the strongest, most deeply rooted Eastern religious organizations not linked to any ethnic group in Brazil. Now part of the urban scenery, its presence no longer surprises westerners. It is considered as an exemplary model of a new eastern religion in the West. The author analyses the transformations within ISKCON in Brazil. Having incorporated certain Brazilian cultural elements, it has in its turn lent aspects of Hindu culture to Brazilian society, particularly in the religious field. Through this exchange the Brazilian religious universe has acquired eastern characteristics, while ISKCON itself has been turned into a religion of primarily western traits.
L'Europe de Bruxelles en ligne de mire: les virtuoses du catholicisme au cœur de la modernité politique
Authors: TALIN Kristoff
Published: March 2007

For those who wish to understand the contemporary development of the religious orders, it is essential to examine events in “the Europe of Brussels”. In this political space, the leading actors of Catholicism are developing strategies to counterbalance political modernity. Affirming the presence of the religious in the political sphere, they focus on the education of their members concerning European problems and, at the same time, bring action to the heart of the European Union. These strategies testify on the one hand to the violence of the transformations which are shaking the foundations of Catholic religious life and on the other to the modernity of the religious orders.
Des affaires du corps aux affaires politiques: le champ de la guérison divine au Congo
Authors: TONDA Joseph
Published: March 2007

The author argues that the paradigm of divine healing which dominated Brazzaville (Congo) society during the 1980s was largely encouraged by the government in the one-party state as part of the image it wished to project, including charismatic cults built around “strongmen”, ambiguous relations with fetishistic practices and religion in general, and above all an ethic of persecution and struggle against sorcery. The “structures of causality” of evil, the rituals of divine healing and curing, and various arrangements regarding confessions and investigations, all affected the exercise of power in the region in political, medical and religious terms, and these structures and arrangements created openings for prophets and anti-sorcery pastors to emerge at the centre of ethnic and national conflicts. Prophetic violence is found to draw some of its force from the subversive power of a fetishism of the human body and of female sexuality, which confirms the close link between the human body and the body politic.
Combien efficace?
Authors: Hertz K.
Published: March 2007

The problem of adaptation of Protestantism to an urban civilization has occasioned a comprehensive study by the National Lutheran Council in the United States of the various facets of such an adaptation. The present article is a brief account of the general framework, aims and concepts of this study, as well as its effects on the efficacity of the Church in the city. Two distinct problems are in fact posed: that of the conditions of survival of institutions submitted to the impact of urban civilization; and that of clear definition of the signification to be given to the religious phenomenon and, consequently, to religious efficacity. This research poses problems both at the conceptual level and at that of pastoral strategy in the urban milieu.