Cartographic and analytical assessment of land price formation depending on the physical and geographical conditions of the territory under military aggression in Ukraine
Authors: Trofymenko Petro , Minzhyner Anna , Zatserkovnyi Vitalii , Stakhiv Iryna , Kobylynska Svitlana 
Published: February 2025

Background. The presented study sheds light on the issue of land price formation in Ukraine as a result of military aggression in conditions of uncertainty. The research involved identifying the peculiarities of the formation of the real price of land plots in the case of concluding a purchase and sale agreement in conditions of uncertainty, depending on a complex of price-forming factors, primarily, taking into account the distance from the line of combat with intensive combat operations, geographical conditions of the territory. It has been shown that the land market under wartime conditions is effectively in a state of stagnation due to numerous risks for both sellers and buyers. The lack of clear legal regulation and the high risk of property loss lead to land purchase and sale transactions being carried out with significant restrictions, which do not meet the criteria for the full functioning of a market mechanism.

Methods. Used research methods: geospatial data analysis (kriging method), mathematical statistics, cartographic-analytical assessment. Among the main types of uncertainty, several determining factors are identified: political and military risks, instability of the legal environment, potential losses, uncertainty of the reliability (sufficient security) of the geographical location of land plots, as well as the uncertainty of the future.

Results. The sale price of land plots for various purposes exhibits dynamic and geospatial differentiation, depending on the manifestation of various determining factors: the state of the military-political and economic situation, as well as their geographical location, which generally corresponds with soil quality. It is characterized by the location of land plots within urban agglomerations of large settlements and/or under the protection of natural obstacles, such as rugged terrain or large bodies of water (lakes, rivers), which can potentially slow down a military offensive.

Conclusions. A significant influence of the remoteness of land plots for the maintenance of a residential building and farm buildings from a localized combat zone (in the period 2014-2022) was revealed, however, the distance of land plots from the combat line at a distance of 50 to 100 km had practically no effect on the formation of the purchase price - the sale of land plots, which is connected with the intensification of hostilities and the transition of the situation to a state of higher degree of uncertainty. The obtained results provide important information for planning the future development of the land market under wartime conditions and post-war recovery. They indicate the need to adapt land valuation methods considering the current military-political realities and are aimed at minimizing risks for participants in land relations. The results of the study indicate the need to make appropriate changes in the methodology of normative monetary valuation of land plots and the methodology of expert monetary valuation of land plots.