bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Geological occurrence and economic feasibility in closing decisions by gold mines
Authors: Mainardi Stefano
Published: August 2019

With successful exploration of deposits often lagging behind mineral extraction, and the international price of gold showing no signs of recovery, mining companies are under pressure to reassess their strategies. The decision whether or not to close a mining activity is the outcome of a process of adapting expectations to a changing economic and geological environment. Part of the literature emphasizes the role of the mineral price and operating costs. However, the extent, pace and intertemporal allocation of metal recovery is in practice determined by a complex interaction of both these with other factors. Following a review of theoretical interpretations, and a reformulation of associated hypotheses, binary-response models are applied to a sample of gold mines in mainly three major southern hemisphere producers (Australia, South Africa and Chile).
Survivor syndrome: Effects on middle managers in South Africa
Authors: Wiesner R. , Vermeulen L. P. , Littler C. R.
Published: August 2019

The impact of organisational downsizing on employees who remain has been the subject of intense research, particularly in the USA. The issue of so-called survivor syndrome is critically important in relation to productivity growth and the success of restructuring. However, current conceptualisation has been based largely on American research. There has been little data on downsizing in the South African context. The purpose of this article is to discuss the extent of survivor syndrome in organisations that have restructured and downsized in South Africa. We ask the questions: does downsizing inevitably result in high levels of survivor syndrome; which factors intensify and modify survivor syndrome; and is there a restructuring cycle? The database constitutes 421 South African organisations.
An econometric analysis of the impact of the RDP on the demand for construction materials in South Africa
Authors: Okeahalam Charles C.
Published: August 2019

The Reconstruction and Development Programme (RDP) is an attempt by the South African government to redress the imbalances of apartheid. It has many facets. One of these involves the provision and distribution of infrastructure to citizens who hitherto have been neglected. This calls for significant construction effort particularly for housing, water, roads and other social construction. This will require efficient production, and allocation of resources to ensure that there is adequate supply of materials to meet the likely increase in demand. This paper examines the expected demand for construction materials, assesses the supply capacity of South African suppliers of construction materials, and develops an econometric model which can be used to evaluate the impact that growth of the internal construction activity will have on construction industry suppliers.
The changing role of the travel intermediary
Authors: Lubbe B.
Published: August 2019

This article gives an overview of the changes and developments in the travel industry and the way travel intermediaries like travel agents are responding to them. These changes include the deregulation of airlines and the advent of global distribution systems, the pressure from airlines for lower distribution costs, rapid and fundamental changes in technology and consumer preferences. The responses by travel agents include rapid integration and consolidation within the industry, the use of technology to streamline operations and expand market reach, and the review of traditional revenue models to make way for new approaches to revenue generation. In conclusion, some future scenarios for both leisure and corporate travel distribution are outlined.
The impact of tourist spending in South Africa: Spatial implications
Authors: Saayman Andrea , Saayman Melville , Naudé Wim
Published: August 2019

In South Africa tourism is regarded as a growth catalyst and a contributor towards the economic upliftment of poorer regions. The magnitude of the impact of tourist spending depends on the extent of leakages from the region, and the ability of the region to create backward and forward linkages. It is argued that the spatial implications of tourism might, inter alia, depend on the relative impacts of domestic versus international tourist spending. Using an input-output model, support was found for the notion that, from a regional development perspective, there should be an emphasis on the development of the domestic tourism market in the short term. As a long-term strategy, investment in transport services and infrastructure to reduce path dependency effects, more inherent in international tourism, is proposed.
The role of exhibitions in the marketing mix in South Africa
Authors: McCoy S. , Du Plessis P. J.
Published: August 2019

Exhibitions are a recognised component of a company's marketing mix, The medium however suffers from a distinct lack of integration and understanding in the broad marketing fraternity. Little research on the subject has been done and published, especially in South Africa. This exploratory study focuses on the use of the exhibition medium as a part of a company's marketing effort. Respondents question the return on investment and the measurability of the medium, while the benefits are in agreement with other published literature. Future research on the effectiveness of the medium and the impact of technology is recommended, as well as the viability of the medium on the marketing of services.
The challenge of forward progress in South Africa and across the region
Authors: Summers Lawrence H.
Published: August 2019

No abstract available.
Strategic supremacy in the hypercompetitive 21st Century
Authors: Kotzé J. G.
Published: August 2019

The dawn of the 21st century has given rise to a new competitive paradigm; brought about by globalisation, information technology and biotechnology developments and the work force revolution. This article identifies the shortcomings of traditional approaches to strategy formulation as measured against the demands of this evolving paradigm. The development of high potential strategic positions, the building and refining of distinctive competencies, the strengthening of strategic fit relationships, the maintenance of balance between the requirements of old and new business and the establishment and maintenance of a strategic thinking and learning culture are building blocks of strategic supremacy in the hypercompetitive 21st century.
Predicting turning points in the South African economy
Authors: Moolman Elna
Published: August 2019

Despite the existence of macroeconomic models and complex business cycle indicators, it would be beneficial to policymakers and market participants if they could look at one well-chosen indicator in predicting business cycle turning points. If one indicator accurately predicts business cycle turning points, it provides an easy way to confirm the predictions of macroeconomic models, or it can eliminate the need for a macroeconomic model if the interest is in the turning points and not in the levels of the business cycle. The objective of this paper is to investigate whether turning points of the South African business cycle can be predicted with only one economic indicator.
The potential for monopoly rents from Etosha National Park, Namibia
Authors: Ågren Janet , Nyyssölä Carita , Stage Jesper
Published: August 2019

This paper reports on a survey carried out among visitors to Etosha, Namibia, in May 2002. We use the contingent valuation method to estimate foreign tourists willingness to pay for visiting the park. We find that the Namibian government could raise park fees substantially and increase profits from foreign tourists by approximately N$ 2,3 million per year. If fees were raised in collusion with other governments, in order to avoid competition between countries in the region, profits could presumably be increased even further. However, the survey used to collect data on tourists willingness to pay also indicated dissatisfaction with current management of in-park resorts, and improved management of these resorts would probably be crucial for the success of any new tariff scheme.
Measuring the impact of advertising and promotion expenditure at national, industry and company levels in South Africa
Authors: Tustin D. H. , Strydom J. W.
Published: August 2019

Sound record-keeping of advertising expenditure figures in South Africa allows for a relative accurate assessment of the impact of advertising expenditure at national, industry and company level. However, the overall composition of marketing communication expenditure is nowadays affected by the continuous increase of promotion expenditure at the cost of advertising. Unfortunately, record-keeping abilities on promotion expenditure figures trails that of advertising. Consequently, the study aims to collect data on advertising and promotion expenditure simultaneously. Such information is highly valued by marketing practitioners in planning annual advertising and promotional budgets. To add further value to the analysis, some international comparisons are made.
False arteriovenous shunts of the spine
Authors: Duncan Ian C.
Published: August 2019

No abstract available
A prospective randomized study comparing concurrent chemoradiation with weekly and 3 weekly cisplatin in locally advanced oropharyngeal carcinoma
Authors: Nanda R. , Katke Aradhana , Suneetha N. , Thejaswini B. , Pasha Tanvir , Jagannath K. P. , Giri G. V. , Babu Govind K.
Published: August 2019

Introduction: The chemotherapy schedules with cytotoxic dose or weekly regimes are still challenging, weighing the benefits versus toxicities. This prospective randomized study is an attempt to assess the efficacy of two schedules of cisplatin in management of locally advanced HNSCC. Objectives: The objectives of this study was to evaluate tolerance, tumour response and toxicities of concurrent chemoradiation with cisplatin in weekly and three weekly regimes. Methods: Locally advanced oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma patients fit for concurrent chemoradiation with cisplatin 40 mg/m2 (weekly) and 100 mg/m2 (3 weekly) were randomized to Arm A and B concurrently with radiotherapy of 70Gy/35frs/7 weeks. Statistical Analysis: Chi-square/Fisher Exact test has been used to find the significance of study parameters on categorical scale between the groups. The statistical software SPSS 15.0 was used. Results: Between December 2010 and January 2013, 60 patients were enrolled. The median cycles of cisplatin in Arm-A was 5 and 2 in Arm-B. The complete response of 80.9% vs 75% and partial response of 14.3% vs 12.5% was observed in both arms respectively. There was no statistical difference in acute radiation and hematological toxicities between the two groups. With median follow up of 28 months, the 2 and 5 years overall survival was 55% and 58%; 41.6% and 32.3% in arms A and B respectively. Conclusion: In our study of locally advanced oropharyngeal carcinoma treated with radical radiotherapy comparing concurrent chemotherapy with cisplatin weekly vs 3 weekly had no significant difference in overall response, complete response and acute toxicities.
Clinicopathological profile of adnexal masses presenting to a tertiary-care hospital in Bhutan
Authors: Rai Rojna , Bhutia Pema Choden , Tshomo Ugyen
Published: August 2019

Context: Adnexal masses of ovarian origin are of growing concern due to high fatality associated with ovarian malignancy because they are diagnosed at advanced stage due to vague symptoms and absence of recommended screening tests. Aims: The aim was to study the prevalence of histopathologic types of adnexal masses in different age groups and to analyze the accuracy of preoperative evaluation in diagnosing ovarian malignancy. Settings and Design: This was a cross-sectional study carried out in the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology of a tertiary care hospital in Bhutan with gynecologic-oncology services, from January to December 2017. Subjects and Methods: Women presenting with adnexal mass were evaluated and those meeting criteria were enrolled. They were evaluated preoperatively with complete history, examination, ultrasound, and tumor markers. Risk of malignancy index (RMI) was calculated for all patients. Following surgery, histopathology results were compared with preoperative evaluation. Statistical Analysis Used: Chi-square test, t-test, Cohen's Kappa, and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were used for statistical analysis. Results: Of 165 patients evaluated, 127 fulfilling criteria were enrolled. Adnexal masses of ovarian origin were most common (n = 102, 80.3%), of which 12.7% were malignant. Epithelial ovarian malignancy was the most common malignant ovarian tumor, serous cystadenocarcinoma being the most common. Malignancy was significantly more in older, postmenopausal women with high RMI. Seven out of 11 women with high RMI were diagnosed in Stage 3 or 4. RMI score at cutoff of 200 was 54.6% sensitive and 85.7% specific. Conclusions: Adnexal mass of ovarian origin was the most common. Malignancy was significantly more in older, postmenopausal women with high RMI. RMI showed moderate correlation in diagnosing epithelial ovarian malignancies.
Retinoblastoma: A retrospective analysis of 141 patients from 1983 to 2013 at a tertiary care hospital in Nagpur, India
Authors: Kabre Rohit S. , Kamble Krishna M.
Published: August 2019

Purpose: There is scarcity of data regarding clinical presentation and outcome of retinoblastoma patients in India. Objectives: The objective of this study was to assess the clinical profile of retinoblastoma patients in a tertiary care hospital in India from 1983 to 2013. Subjects and Methods: A retrospective analysis of clinical records of 141 patients with retinoblastoma registered from 1983 to 2013 at Government Medical College, Nagpur, India, was conducted. Demographics, clinical features, modes of treatment, and outcome of the patients were assessed. Results: Majority of patients (81 [57.45%]) presented in the age group of 1–3 years and were males. One hundred and fourteen patients (80.85%) had unilateral disease, while rare presentations of trilateral/quadrilateral retinoblastoma were also noted. Proptosis was seen in 81 (57.45%) patients as presenting symptom. Eighty-nine patients (63.12%) had locally invasive disease-involving sites. Forty-four patients (31.19%) developed distant metastasis. Surgical management and external beam radiotherapy were followed in majority of patients. Trend of increased usage of chemotherapy was seen from the mid-1990s. One hundred and twelve patients (79.43%) died with the disease. Conclusions: Data from this study show late diagnosis, leading to poor outcome for patients with advanced retinoblastoma, which is in accordance with data from other developing countries. Even though management of patients changed in accordance with changing standard of care over the decade, mortality remained high.
Performance measurement in Judo: main KPIs, cluster categorization and an ANP-based approach
Authors: Uriarte Marcos Sugoi , Rodriguez-Rodriguez Raul , Uriarte Marcos Maier , Alfaro-Saiz Juan-Jose
Published: August 2019

Performance measurement in Judo usually focuses on some KPIs whose values indicate the final performance of the athlete. This paper deals with firstly identifying which these main KPIs in Judo are. Once this is done, the KPIs are classified into four different clusters: Physical training, specific training, Psychology and Lifestyle. Then, it proposes the multi-criteria decision aim technique of Analytic Network Process as the most indicate one to link not only the impact of the Judo KPIs with the achievement of the judoka’s strategic objectives but also to identify both the relative and the global importance of each of these KPIs. 
A marginalidade da linguística na sci-fi: uma crítica a partir da estória dos heptápodes nas obras de Chiang e Villeneuve
Authors: Queriquelli Luiz Henrique Milani
Published: August 2019

Inspirado pela novela História da Sua Vida (1999), de Ted Chiang, e sua contraparte cinematográfica, o filme A chegada (2016), de Denis Villeneuve, roteirizado por Eric Heisserer, sob a supervisão dos linguistas Jessica Coon e Morgan Sonderegger, este ensaio pretende oferecer, em sua primeira parte, uma breve análise de tais obras, destacando alguns de seus méritos e fragilidades; e, complementarmente, em sua segunda parte, com base nas considerações ensaiadas ao longo da análise, apresentar uma reflexão sobre a marginalidade da ciência da linguagem no gênero sci-fi e sobre a própria ficção científica como alternativa para sair dessa condição.
Anatomy of Sudden Yen Appreciations
Authors: Han Fei , Westelius Niklas
Published: August 2019

The yen is an important barometer for the Japanese economy. Depreciations are typically associated with favorable economic developments such as increased corporate profits, rising equity prices, and upward pressure on domestic consumer prices. On the other hand, large and sharp appreciations run the risk of lowering actual and expected inflation, squeezing corporate profits, generating a negative wealth effect through depressed equity prices, and reducing confidence in the Bank of Japan’s efforts to reflate the domestic economy and achieve the inflation target. This paper takes a closer look at underlying drivers of rapid yen appreciations, highlighting the key role of carry-trade and the zero lower bound as important amplifiers.
The Measurement of External Accounts
Authors: Adler Gustavo , Garcia-Macia Daniel , Krogstrup Signe
Published: August 2019

Growing international integration in trade and finance can challenge the measurement of external accounts. This paper presents a unified conceptual framework for identifying sources of mismeasurement of foreign investment income in current account balances. The framework allows to derive a precise definition of measurement distortions and an empirical strategy for estimating their importance. As an application, we empirically estimate two specific distortions related to inflation and retained earnings on portfolio equity for a broad set of countries. We find these may explain a non-trivial share of current account imbalances and that they are particularly relevant in countries with large external investment positions. We also discuss how merchanting and profit-shifting activities could lead to measurement distortions. We suggest areas for future research and underline the need to strengthen data collection efforts.
Income Inequality and Government Transfers in Mexico
Authors: Lambert Frederic , Park Hyunmin
Published: August 2019

We analyze microdata from Mexico's survey on household income and expenditures
(ENIGH) to study the evolution of income inequality in Mexico over 2004-16, identify its sources, and investigate how it was affected by government social policy. We find evidence of only a small decline in inequality over this period. The observed decline may be attributed to government transfers, notably targeted cash transfers (Prospera) and non-contributory pensions. In 2016, those two programs accounted for more than two thirds of the reduction in the Gini coefficient due to government transfers. Other transfer programs such as farmland subsidies (Proagro), government scholarships, and non-monetary transfers for medical expenditures have not been as effective.
Switzerland
Authors:   International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Published: August 2019

Selected Issues
Singapore
Authors:   International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Published: August 2019

Fintech developments hold the promise of having a far-reaching impact on the Singaporean financial services sector, bringing both opportunities and new risks. Technological innovation is one of the most influential developments affecting the financial sector. While fintech promises opportunities for new entrants and incumbents, innovation and change introduce new risks for clients, financial institutions (FIs) and the system. Early indications suggest that while a significant amount of activity has taken place across the financial services landscape, the impact is largely characterized as helping incumbents deliver financial services in a more efficient manner as opposed to disrupting existing business models. Nonetheless, disruption could be around the corner.
Morocco
Authors:   International Monetary Fund. Middle East and Central Asia Dept.
Published: August 2019

Improved fiscal management and economic diversification have strengthened the resilience of Morocco’s economy in recent years. Yet, economic growth, at 3 percent in 2018, has not been robust enough and unemployment remains high, especially among the youth. This reinforces the need for sustaining the recent momentum in reforms toward higher and more inclusive growth, buttressed by the private sector. Key priorities include improving the quality of the education system, the functioning of the labor market, female labor force participation, and the business environment. Since 2012, the Fund has been actively engaged with Morocco through four two-year Precautionary Liquidity Line (PLL) arrangements, the last one approved in December 2018.
New particle formation and its effect on CCN abundance in the summer Arctic: a case study during PS106 cruise
Authors: Kecorius Simonas , Vogl Teresa , Paasonen Pauli , Lampilahti Janne , Rothenberg Daniel , Wex Heike , Zeppenfeld Sebastian , van Pinxteren Manuela , Hartmann Markus , Henning Silvia , Gong Xianda , Welti Andre , Kulmala Markku , Stratmann Frank , Herrmann Hartmut , Wiedensohler Alfred
Published: August 2019

Abstract. In a warming Arctic the increased occurrence of new particle formation (NPF) is believed to originate from the declining ice coverage during summertime. Understanding the physico-chemical properties of newly formed particles, as well as mechanisms that control both particle formation and growth in this pristine environment is important for interpreting aerosol-cloud interactions, to which the Arctic climate can be highly sensitive. In this investigation, we present the analysis of NPF and growth in the high summer Arctic. The measurements have been done on-board Research Vessel Polarstern during the PS106 Arctic expedition. Four distinctive NPF and subsequent particle growth events were observed, during which particle (diameter in a range 10–50 nm) number concentrations increased from background values of approx. 40 up to 4000 cm-3. Based on particle formation and growth rates, as well as hygroscopicity of nucleation and the Aitken mode particles, we distinguished two different types of NPF events. First, some NPF events were favored by negative ions, resulting in more-hygroscopic nucleation mode particles and suggesting sulfuric acid as a precursor gas. Second, other NPF events resulted in less-hygroscopic particles, indicating the influence of organic vapors on particle formation and growth. To test the climatic relevance of NPF and its influence on the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) budget in the Arctic, we applied a zero-dimensional, adiabatic cloud parcel model. At an updraft velocity of 0.1 m s-1, the particle number size distribution (PNSD) generated during nucleation processes resulted in an increase of the CCN number concentration by a factor of 2 to 5, compared to the background CCN concentrations. This result was confirmed by the directly measured CCN number concentrations. Although particles did not grow beyond 50 nm in diameter and the activated fraction of 15–50 nm particles was on average below 10 %, it could be shown that the sheer number of particles produced by the nucleation process is enough to significantly influence the background CCN number concentration. It implies that NPF can be an important source of CCN in the Arctic. However, more studies should be conducted in the future to understand mechanisms of NPF, sources of precursor gases and condensable vapors, as well as the role of the aged nucleation mode particles on Arctic cloud formation.
Mitigation of PM2.5 and Ozone Pollution in Delhi: A Sensitivity Study during the Pre-monsoon period
Authors: Chen Ying , Wild Oliver , Ryan Edmund , Sahu Saroj Kumar , Lowe Douglas , Archer-Nicholls Scott , Wang Yu , McFiggans Gordon , Ansari Tabish , Singh Vikas , Sokhi Ranjeet S. , Archibald Alex , Beig Gufran
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and surface ozone (O3) are major air pollutants in megacities such as Delhi, but the design of suitable mitigation strategies is challenging. Some strategies for reducing PM2.5 may have the notable side-effect of increasing O3. Here, we demonstrate a numerical framework for investigating the impacts of mitigation strategies on both PM2.5 and O3 in Delhi. We use Gaussian process emulation to generate a computationally efficient surrogate for a regional air quality model (WRF-Chem). This allows us to perform global sensitivity analysis to identify the major sources of air pollution, and to generate emission-sector based pollutant response surfaces to inform mitigation policy development. Based on more than 100,000 emulation runs during the pre-monsoon period (peak O3 season), our global sensitivity analysis shows that local traffic emissions from Delhi city region and regional transport of pollutions emitted from the National Capital Region surrounding Delhi (NCR) are dominant factors influencing PM2.5 and O3 in Delhi. They together govern the O3 peak and PM2.5 concentration during daytime. Regional transport contributes about 80 % of the PM2.5 variation during the night. Reducing traffic emissions in Delhi alone (e.g., by 50 %) would reduce PM2.5 by 15–20 % but lead to a 20–25 % increase in O3. However, we show that reducing NCR regional emissions by 25–30 % at the same time would further reduce PM2.5 by 5–10 % in Delhi and avoid the O3 increase. This study provides scientific evidence to support the need for joint coordination of controls on local and regional scales to achieve effective reduction on PM2.5 whilst minimize the risk of O3 increase in Delhi.
The global impact of bacterial processes on carbon mass
Authors: Ervens Barbara , Amato Pierre
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Many recent studies have identified biological material as a major fraction of ambient aerosol loading. A small fraction of these bioaerosols consist of bacteria that have attracted a lot of attention due to their role in cloud formation and adverse health effects. Current atmospheric models consider bacteria as inert quantities and neglect cell growth and multiplication. We provide here a framework to estimate the production of secondary biological aerosol (SBA) mass in clouds by microbial cell growth and multiplication. The best estimate of SBA formation rates of 3.7 Tg yr-1 are comparable to previous model estimates of the primary emission of bacteria into the atmosphere, and thus might represent a previously unrecognized source of biological aerosol material. We discuss in detail the large uncertainties associated with our estimates based on the rather sparse available data on bacteria abundance, growth conditions and properties. Additionally, the loss of water-soluble organic carbon (WSOC) due to microbial processes in cloud droplets has been suggested to compete under some conditions with WSOC loss by chemical (OH) reactions. Our estimates suggest that microbial and chemical processes might lead to a global loss of WSOC of 8–11 Tg yr-1 and 8–20 Tg yr-1, respectively. While also this estimate is very approximate, the analysis of the uncertainties and ranges of all parameters gives hints about the conditions under which microbial processes cannot be neglected as organic carbon sinks in clouds. Our estimates also highlight the urgent needs for more data concerning microbial concentrations, fluxes and activity in the atmosphere to evaluate the role of bacterial processes as net aerosol sink or source on various spatial and temporal scales.
Determining the Daytime Earth Radiative Flux from National
Institute of Standards and Technology Advanced Radiometer
(NISTAR) Measurements
Authors: Su Wenying , Minnis Patrick , Liang Lusheng , Duda David P. , Khlopenkov Konstantin , Thieman Mandana M. , Yu Yinan , Smith Allan , Lorentz Steven , Feldman Daniel , Valero Francisco P. J.
Published: August 2019

Abstract. The National Institute of Standards and Technology Advanced Radiometer (NISTAR) onboard Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR) provides continuous full disc global broadband irradiance measurements over most of the sunlit side of the Earth. The three active cavity radiometers measures the total radiant energy from the sun-lit side of the Earth in shortwave (SW, 0.2–4 µm), total (0.4–100 µm), and near-infrared (NIR, 0.7–4 µm) channels. The Level 1 NISTAR dataset provides the filtered radiances (the ratio between irradiance and solid angle). To determine the daytime top-of-atmosphere (TOA) shortwave and longwave radiative fluxes, the NISTAR measured shortwave radiances must be unfiltered first. An unfiltering algorithm was developed for the NISTAR SW and NIR channels using a spectral radiance data base calculated for typical Earth scenes. The resulting unfiltered NISTAR radiances are then converted to full disk daytime SW and LW flux, by accounting for the anisotropic characteristics of the Earth-reflected and emitted radiances. The anisotropy factors are determined using scene identifications determined from multiple low Earth orbit and geostationary satellites and the angular distribution models (ADMs) developed using data collected by the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). Global annual daytime mean SW fluxes from NISTAR are about 6 % greater than those from CERES, and both show strong diurnal variations with daily maximum-minimum differences as great as 20 Wm−2 depending on the conditions of the sunlit portion of the Earth. They are also highly correlated, having correlation coefficients of 0.89, indicating that they both capture the diurnal variation. Global annual daytime mean LW fluxes from NISTAR are about 3 % greater than those from CERES, but the correlation between them is only about 0.38.
Early Morning Peaksin the Diurnal Cycle of Precipitation over the Northern Coast of West Java and Possible Influencing Factors
Authors: Yulihastin Erma , Wahyu Hadi Tri , Sari Ningsih Nining , Ridho Syahputra Muhammad
Published: August 2019

Abstract. The diurnal cycles of precipitation over the northern coast of West Java have been studied using the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Real Time Multi-satellite Precipitation Analyses (MPA-RT) products with records spanning from 2000 to 2016, with emphasis on the occurrences of early morning precipitation peaks. Diurnal precipitation over the study area during November to March is basically characterised by precipitation peaks that occur in the afternoon to evening time (15:00–21:00 LT) but secondary peaks in night to morning time (01:00–07:00 LT) are also pronounced in January and February. Harmonic analysis method was then applied on data of January and February to objectively determine the diurnal phase and classify the timing of precipitation for each day into three categories, i.e. afternoon-to-evening precipitation (AEP), early morning precipitation (EMP), and late morning precipitation (LMP) with peaks that occur in the time windows of 13:00–24:00 LT, 01:00–04:00 LT, and 05:00–12:00 LT, respectively. In terms of frequency of occurrence, AEP, EMP, and LMP constitute 55 %, 26.1 %, and 18.9 % of total samples of precipitation events. In spite of the smallest percentage, EMP events are characterised by seaward (as well as landward) propagation, flat phase distribution, and large mean amplitudes. The propagating characteristics of EMP are more prominent, with indications of stronger connectivity between precipitation systems over land and ocean, when data are composited by taking the 99th percentile values in each grid to represent extreme precipitation events. The flat phase distribution of EMP events suggests that the timing of coastal precipitation is not necessarily locked to the phase of land/sea-breezes, thus, allowing precipitation to occur more randomly. Furthermore, the role of South China Sea Cold Tongue (SCS-CT) and Cross Equatorial Northerly Surge (CENS) as influencing factors for the occurrences of EMP event have also been investigated. In agreement with previous studies, we confirmed that the SCS-CT generally prevails in January and February and morning precipitation events over the northern coast of West Java mainly occurred when there was more enhanced SST cooling in the South China Sea. Additionally, we found that CENS is the most differential factor with regard to the phase of coastal precipitation. In this case, CENS is positively correlated with SCS-CT and when associated with EMP events, concurrent enhancement of CENS and SCS-CT is connected to a narrow channelling of strong surface northerly wind anomalies just offshore the Indochina and Malay Peninsula.
The Eulerian urban dispersion model EPISODE – Part 2: Extensions to the source dispersion and photochemistry for EPISODE–CityChem v1.2 and its application to the city of Hamburg
Authors: Karl Matthias , Walker Sam-Erik , Solberg Sverre , Ramacher Martin O. P.
Published: August 2019

Abstract. This paper describes the CityChem extension of the Eulerian urban dispersion model EPISODE.
The development of the CityChem extension was driven by the need to apply the model in
largely populated urban areas with highly complex pollution sources of particulate matter
and various gaseous pollutants.
The CityChem extension offers a more advanced treatment of the photochemistry in urban areas and
entails specific developments within the sub-grid components for a more accurate
representation of dispersion in proximity to urban emission sources.
Photochemistry on the Eulerian grid is computed using a numerical chemistry solver. Photochemistry in the sub-grid components is solved with a compact reaction scheme,
replacing the photo-stationary-state assumption.
The simplified street canyon
model (SSCM) is used in the line source sub-grid model to calculate pollutant dispersion
in street canyons.
The WMPP (WORM Meteorological Pre-Processor) is used in the point source sub-grid model
to calculate the wind speed at plume height.
The EPISODE–CityChem model integrates the CityChem extension in EPISODE, with the
capability of simulating the photochemistry and dispersion of multiple reactive pollutants
within urban areas.
The main focus of the model is the simulation of the complex atmospheric
chemistry involved in the photochemical production of ozone in urban areas.
The ability of EPISODE–CityChem to reproduce the temporal variation of major
regulated pollutants at air quality monitoring stations in Hamburg, Germany, was
compared to that of the standard EPISODE model and the TAPM (The Air Pollution Model) air quality model using
identical meteorological fields and emissions. EPISODE–CityChem performs better
than EPISODE and TAPM for the prediction of hourly NO2 concentrations at the traffic
stations, which is attributable to the street canyon model.
Observed levels of annual mean ozone at the five urban background stations in Hamburg
are captured by the model within ±15 %.
A performance analysis with
the FAIRMODE DELTA tool for air quality in Hamburg showed that EPISODE–CityChem fulfils the
model performance objectives for NO2 (hourly), O3
(daily max. of the 8 h running mean) and PM10 (daily mean) set forth in
the Air Quality Directive, qualifying the model for use in policy applications.
Envisaged applications of the
EPISODE–CityChem model are urban air quality studies, emission control scenarios in
relation to traffic restrictions and the source attribution of sector-specific emissions
to observed levels of air pollutants at urban monitoring stations.
Efficient ensemble data assimilation for coupled models with the
Parallel Data Assimilation Framework: Example of AWI-CM
Authors: Nerger Lars , Tang Qi , Mu Longjiang
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Data assimilation integrates information from observational measurements with numerical models. When used with coupled models of Earth system compartments, e.g. the atmosphere and the ocean, consistent joint states can be estimated. A common approach for data assimilation are ensemble-based methods which use an ensemble of state realizations to estimate the state and its uncertainty. These methods are far more costly to compute than a single coupled model because of the required integration of the ensemble. However, with uncoupled models, the methods also have been shown to exhibit a particularly good scaling behavior. This study discusses an approach to augment a coupled model with data assimilation functionality provided by the Parallel Data Assimilation Framework (PDAF). Using only minimal changes in the codes of the different compartment models, a particularly efficient data assimilation system is generated that utilizes parallelization and in-memory data transfers between the models and the data assimilation functions and hence avoids most of the filter reading and writing and also model restarts during the data assimilation process. The study explains the required modifications of the programs on the example of the coupled atmosphere-sea ice-ocean model AWI-CM. Using the case of the assimilation of oceanic observations shows that the data assimilation leads only small overheads in computing time of about 15 % compared to the model without data assimilation and a very good parallel scalability. The model-agnostic structure of the assimilation software ensures a separation of concerns in that the development of data assimilation methods and be separated from the model application.
Novel metrics based on Biogeochemical Argo data to improve the model uncertainty evaluation of the CMEMS Mediterranean marine ecosystem forecasts
Authors: Salon Stefano , Cossarini Gianpiero , Bolzon Giorgio , Feudale Laura , Lazzari Paolo , Teruzzi Anna , Solidoro Cosimo , Crise Alessandro
Published: August 2019

Abstract. The quality of the upgraded version of the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service (CMEMS) biogeochemical operational system of the Mediterranean Sea (MedBFM) is assessed in terms of consistency and forecast skill, following a mixed validation protocol that exploits different reference data from satellite, oceanographic databases, Biogeochemical Argo floats, and literature. We show that the quality of the MedBFM system has been improved in the previous 10 years. We demonstrate that a set of metrics based on the GODAE (Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment) paradigm can be efficiently applied to validate an operational model system for biogeochemical and ecosystem forecasts. The accuracy of the CMEMS biogeochemical products for the Mediterranean Sea can be achieved from basin-wide and seasonal scales to mesoscale and weekly scales, and its level depends on the specific variable and the availability of reference data, the latter being an important prerequisite to build robust statistics. In particular, the use of the Biogeochemical Argo floats data proved to significantly enhance the validation framework of operational biogeochemical models. New skill metrics, aimed to assess key biogeochemical processes and dynamics (e.g. deep chlorophyll maximum depth, nitracline depth), can be easily implemented to routinely monitor the quality of the products and highlight possible anomalies through the comparison of near-real-time (NRT) forecasts skill with pre-operationally defined seasonal benchmarks. Feedbacks to the observing autonomous systems in terms of quality control and deployment strategy are also
discussed.
Effects of floating (solar PV) platforms on hydrodynamics and primary production in a coastal sea
Authors: Karpouzoglou Thodoris , Vlaswinkel Brigitte , van der Molen Johan
Published: August 2019

Abstract. An improved understanding of the effects of floating solar platforms on the ecosystem is necessary to define acceptable and responsible real-world field implementations of this new marine technology. This study examines a number of potential effects of offshore floating solar PV platforms on the hydrodynamics and net primary production in a coastal sea for the first time. Three contrasting locations within the North Sea (a shallow and deeper location with well-mixed conditions and a summer-stratifying location) have been analysed using a water column physical-biogeochemical model (GOTM-ERSEM-BFM). The results show strong dependence on the characteristics of the location (e.g. mixing and stratification) and on the density of coverage with floating platforms. The overall response of the system was separated into contributions by platform shadow, shielding by the platforms of the sea surface from wind, and friction induced by the platforms on the currents. For all three locations, platform shadow was the dominant effect on the net primary production. For the two well-mixed locations, the other effects of the platforms resulted in partial compensation for the impact of platform shadow, while for the stratified location, they enhanced the effects of platform shadow. For up to 20 % coverage of the model surface with platforms, the spread in the results between locations was relatively small, and the changes in net primary production were less than 10 %. For higher percentages of coverage, primary production decreased substantially, with an increased spread in response between the sites. The water-column model assumes horizontal homogeneity in all forcings and simulated variables, also for coverage with floating platforms, and hence the results are applicable to very large-scale implementations of offshore floating platforms that are evenly distributed over areas of at least several hundreds of square kilometres. To confirm these results, and to investigate more realistic cases of floating platforms distributed unevenly over much smaller areas with horizontally varying hydrodynamic conditions, in which phytoplankton can be expected to spend only part of the time underneath a farm, spatial detail and additional processes need to be included. To do so, further work is required to advance the water-column model towards a 3D modelling approach.
Modern patterns of spatial distribution of the main soil parameters: case study of the Republic of Tatarstan, Russia
Authors: Gafurov Artur , Sharifullin Aidar
Published: August 2019

Abstract. The territory of the Republic of Tatarstan (RT) belongs
to the region with the most developed agriculture in Russia and the Middle
Volga region. However, the formation of a system of accurate farming in the
Republic is just beginning. To ensure precision farming, it is necessary to
precisely know cropland borders, as well as the agrochemical properties of
soils (pH, humus content, potassium and phosphorus content). The present
study was carried out based on aerial images analyses of the most
intensively used part of the RT both with identification of soil indicators
for each of the fields. The availability of information on the spatial
location of various cultivated crops makes it possible to assess the role of
soil characteristics in these crops.
Contemporary suspended sediment yield of Caucasus mountains
Authors: Tsyplenkov Anatoly , Vanmaercke Matthias , Golosov Valentin
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Processes linked to climate change and intensified
anthropogenic pressure influence the environment, the hydrology and by
extent the denudation processes in the Caucasus mountain belt. Quantitative
assessments of sediment fluxes and their temporal evolution in this mountain
region are required for various environmental and engineering purposes,
including the planning and maintenance of water reservoirs and other
structures. In this paper, we present a first analysis of the hitherto
largest suspended sediment yield (SSY) database for the Caucasus region,
comprising data from 198 catchments (> 4000 catchment-years of
observations). We present an overview of the existing contemporary SSY data
from gauging stations observations. Based on these data and different
models, we propose preliminary maps of the spatial patterns of SSY and
denudation rates in the Caucasus region.
Permafrost variability over the Northern Hemisphere based on the MERRA-2 reanalysis
Authors: Tao Jing , Koster Randal D. , Reichle Rolf H. , Forman Barton A. , Xue Yuan , Chen Richard H. , Moghaddam Mahta
Published: August 2019

Abstract. This study introduces and evaluates a comprehensive,
model-generated dataset of Northern Hemisphere permafrost conditions at
81 km2 resolution. Surface meteorological forcing fields from the
Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications 2 (MERRA-2)
reanalysis were used to drive an improved version of the land component of
MERRA-2 in middle-to-high northern latitudes from 1980 to 2017. The
resulting simulated permafrost distribution across the Northern Hemisphere
mostly captures the observed extent of continuous and discontinuous
permafrost but misses the ecosystem-protected permafrost zones in western
Siberia. Noticeable discrepancies also appear along the southern edge of the
permafrost regions where sporadic and isolated permafrost types dominate.
The evaluation of the simulated active layer thickness (ALT) against remote
sensing retrievals and in situ measurements demonstrates reasonable skill
except in Mongolia. The RMSE (bias) of climatological ALT is 1.22 m (−0.48 m) across all sites and 0.33 m (−0.04 m) without the Mongolia sites. In
northern Alaska, both ALT retrievals from airborne remote sensing for 2015
and the corresponding simulated ALT exhibit limited skill versus in situ
measurements at the model scale. In addition, the simulated ALT has larger spatial variability than the remotely sensed ALT, although it agrees well with the retrievals when considering measurement uncertainty. Controls on
the spatial variability of ALT are examined with idealized numerical
experiments focusing on northern Alaska; meteorological forcing and soil
types are found to have dominant impacts on the spatial variability of ALT,
with vegetation also playing a role through its modulation of snow
accumulation. A correlation analysis further reveals that accumulated
above-freezing air temperature and maximum snow water equivalent explain
most of the year-to-year variability of ALT nearly everywhere over the
model-simulated permafrost regions.
Nagy, Zsolt. 2017. Great Expectations and Interwar Realities: Hungarian Cultural Diplomacy, 1918-1941.Budapest: Central University Press. 341 pages
Authors: Pereszlényi-Pintér Mártha
Published: August 2019

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