bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Emergency remote teaching: an explorative tool
Authors: Zavarrone Emma , Grassia Maria Gabriella , Mazza Rocco , Forciniti Alessia
Published: December 2021

The worldwide rapid spread and severity of the infectious disease caused by Coronavirus forced the WHO to declare a global state of pandemic emergency during March 2020, by leading the governments around the world to adopt policies that created the widest rift of education systems in human history.
Italy have temporarily closed each educational institution, by causing the disruption of tertiary education for 16.89% of the Italian learner’s population. To ensure the “pedagogic continuity”, universities adopted the transitioning from traditional face-to-face to online learning. This paradigm shift to fully remote teaching solutions represents the so-called emergency remote teaching (ERT) in contrast to the traditional teaching inspired by Bologna process principles such as teaching quality and student satisfaction.
In a landscape of emerging difficulties connected to ERT contexts, the quality assurance of higher education recalled by the Bologna Process may be not appropriate. We propose an evaluation model for the quality and ERT success across two dimensions used as proxy variables: students’ engagement (SE) and success performance (SP). Within the faculties, we analysed the performance and hence the knowledge, skills and/or attitudes acquired by learners, within the students, the focus was the engagement as interest, motivation and involvement. Under this perspective our research question has an explorative nature: we are interested in detecting empirical evidence about the learning assessment and engagement in higher education with focus on students’ engagement and their success performance during ERT. The investigation carried out on Iulm University’s student population (N=775). We integrated textual data related to the students evaluation of ERT and their career data such as credits, marks before and post disease. The results show the relations between the two dimensions taken into account, with a multidimensional approach we created a factorial plan useful to create an agile tool of analysis in the ERT context.
Reducing inconsistency in AHP by combining Delphi and Nudge theory and network analysis of the judgements: an application to future scenarios
Authors: Di Zio Simone
Published: December 2021

The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a Multi-Criteria method in which a number of decision factors (typically criteria and alternatives) are compared pairwise by one or more experts, using the Saaty scale, with the goal of sorting the alternatives (Saaty, 1977; 1980). For group AHP the Delphi method can be used in parallel with the AHP (Di Zio and Maretti, 2014), and this allows the search for a consensus on each pairwise judgement.
A big issue of the AHP regards the inconsistency of the pairwise comparison matrices and here we propose a new method to reduce the inconsistency. As a solution we exploit the Nudge theory (Thaler and Sunstein, 2008) and from the second round of the Delphi survey, we calculate and circulate a Nudge to “gentle push” the experts towards more consistent evaluations.
Furthermore, we propose the representation of the AHP matrices through graphs. In a direct graph two nodes are linked with two direct and weighted edges (or one edge with the direction based on the weights), where the weights indicate the evaluation given by an expert or, for a group, the geometric mean of the judgements. This type of visualization facilitates the reading of the results and could also be used as real-time feedback in the Delphi process, by displaying on the edges also a measure of variability.
An application is proposed, on the evaluation of four future scenarios on the regulation of genetic modification experiments, assessed by a panel of 27 experts according to different criteria (plausibility, consistency and simplicity). The application demonstrated that it is possible to: a) reduce the inconsistency; b) collect useful textual material which enrich the AHP itself; c) use the inconsistency index as a stopping criterion for the Delphi rounds; d) display the pairwise comparison matrices with graphs.
EGIPSS model for the evaluation of performance in healthcare
Authors: Renzi Pietro , Franci Alberto
Published: December 2021

The need to improve performance in the Italian healthcare sector and thereby optimise the availability and delivery of related services has long been recognised. The associated reforms and developmental programmes have meant that the focus of health services has moved from a means-based approach to a results-based approach; which was an essential step to enabling real performance improvements according to the new public management paradigm. What is essential is a means of measuring and evaluating changes in healthcare sector performance which will support policy-makers to provide transparency and accountability, in accordance with the Tallinn Charter. This is particularly relevant in the healthcare sector, where outcomes are critical. This paper examines the concept of performance and performance assessment in the healthcare sector; acknowledging the inherent difficulties caused by the complexity of the systems and the multiplicity of performance-related definitions involved. This latter point is illustrated by the fact that many international organisations, such as the WHO and the OECD, have used varying models to assess and compare the performance of health systems in different countries.
The authors have compared and evaluated a wide range of models and have determined the merits of the EGIPSS (Évaluation Globale et Intégrée de la Performance des Systèmes de Santé) integrative model. This is based on Parson's theory of social action which specifies four functions necessary for an organisation to survive. EGIPSS takes into consideration the conceptual contributions of different organisations, and covers a comparatively large number of performance measurements. A detailed illustration of the methodology is presented, together with some healthcare-related results for the Republic of San Marino and parts of the Marche Region in Italy.
Supporting decision-makers in healthcare domain. A comparative study of two interpretative proposals for Random Forests
Authors: Aria Massimo , Cuccurullo Corrado , Gnasso Agostino
Published: December 2021

The growing success of Machine Learning (ML) is making significant improvements to predictive models, facilitating their integration in various application fields, especially the healthcare context. However, it still has limitations and drawbacks, such as the lack of interpretability which does not allow users to understand how certain decisions are made. This drawback is identified with the term "Black-Box", as well as models that do not allow to interpret the internal work of certain ML techniques, thus discouraging their use. In a highly regulated and risk-averse context such as healthcare, although "trust" is not synonymous with decision and adoption, trusting an ML model is essential for its adoption. Many clinicians and health researchers feel uncomfortable with black box ML models, even if they achieve high degrees of diagnostic or prognostic accuracy. Therefore more and more research is being conducted on the functioning of these models. Our study focuses on the Random Forest (RF) model. It is one of the most performing and used methodologies in the context of ML approaches, in all fields of research from hard sciences to humanities. In the health context and in the evaluation of health policies, their use is limited by the impossibility of obtaining an interpretation of the causal links between predictors and response. This explains why we need to develop new techniques, tools, and approaches for reconstructing the causal relationships and interactions between predictors and response used in a RF model. Our research aims to perform a machine learning experiment on several medical datasets through a comparison between two methodologies, which are inTrees and NodeHarvest. They are the main approaches in the rules extraction framework. The contribution of our study is to identify, among the approaches to rule extraction, the best proposal for suggesting the appropriate choice to decision-makers in the health domain.
Media and fake news: An analysis of citizens’ attitudes toward misinformation in European countries
Authors: Ferrante Mauro , Parroco Anna Maria
Published: December 2021

The rapid changes determined by the rise of Internet and the recent development of social media in daily life have led to profound consequences on the quantity and quality of data made available and on the mechanisms of their dissemination. The rapid spread of on-line disinformation is one of the most discussed topic, and has been identified as one of the top-trends in modern societies by the World Economic Forum, also because of the link between these processes and political communication. Thanks to the availability of micro-data from the Flash Eurobarometer survey on “Fake news and disinformation online”, the present work aims at analyzing the attitude of European citizens toward fake news and disinformation. In a first step, cluster of citizens are identified according to their level of trust in media news, in relation to different types of media. Given the categorical nature of the variables considered, k-mode clustering is implemented. Secondly, the main determinants of news trust levels are analyzed, through regression models for categorical response variables. Preliminary results show that socio-demographic characteristics as well as technological use have an influence on trust in the media, which in turn determines different approaches on the role of institutions in tackling disinformation. The relevance of fake news in contemporary period and its potential consequences on the political side require a reflection on the role of statistical literacy and of official statistical institutes in dealing with disinformation in the post-truth era.
Assessment of agricultural productivity change at country level: A stochastic frontier approach
Authors: Magrini Alessandro
Published: December 2021

In this paper, we estimate agricultural productivity change at country level based on the same data employed by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), the current reference data source, using a stochastic frontier model instead of the growth accounting method. The use of a stochastic frontier model is motivated by the opportunity to overcome the limitation of USDA estimates which rely on approximated and imputed input cost shares, and of the growth accounting method in general, which ignores technical inefficiency. We found that, in general, USDA estimates are higher in absolute value than ours but in substantial agreement, confirming the different theoretical foundations of the two methods and suggesting the empirical validity of both of them. Furthermore, our results show that the assumption of constant returns to scale made by many authors appears just a simplification and not a real property of the production processes of the various countries. This work has the value to provide, for the first time in the literature, a comparison between agricultural productivity changes estimated with different methodologies, and an additional data source that can be employed in a large variety of longitudinal economic analyses at country level.
Experience, sensorial skills and personality qualifying a wine consumer as an expert
Authors: Fabbris Luigi , Piscitelli Alfonso
Published: December 2021

This paper analyses the characteristics of wine consumers that may qualify them as wine experts. The wine evaluation expertise of consumers, as measured by various degrees of self-perceived ability, is hypothesised to causally depend on cognitive and non-cognitive characteristics of wine experience, on sensorial skills relevant for wine assessment and on wine consumption-related personality aspects.
Our work consisted in measuring and analysing the relationships between the self-assessment of the ability to wine assessment given by a convenience sample of consumers and the qualification of their consumption experience and training (ranging from “simple” consumer to producer/seller to professional sommeliers), their sensorial (olfactory, flavour) skills and enogastronomic culture. Wine culture is defined as the capacity to harmonise wine and food and conceive wine as a nutritional, social and health-related means. The analysed data refer to a tasting experiment held as a social activity during a scientific meeting in Pescara, Italy, in 2018. The sample of wine assessors who filled in the evaluation questionnaire included both meeting participants and people belonging to AIS-Abruzzo, the regional association of chartered sommeliers.
The data collected at wine tasters showed that there were strong relationships between the self-evaluation as wine expert and the consumption experience, the assessment skills, and the wine consumption “culture”. The relationships differed according to age, activity and length of wine consumption experience of the assessors.
Prediction of wine sensorial quality: a classification problem
Authors: Carpita Maurizio , Golia Silvia
Published: December 2021

When dealing with a wine, it is of interest to be able to predict its quality based on chemical and/or sensory variables. There is no agreement on what wine quality means, or how it should be assessed and it is often viewed in intrinsic (physicochemical, sensory) or extrinsic (price, prestige, context) terms (Jackson, 2017). In this paper, the wine quality was evaluated by experienced judges who scored the wine on the base of a 0-10 scale, with 0 meaning very bad and 10 excellent, so, the resulting variable was categorical. The models applied to predict this variable provide the prediction of the occurrence probabilities of each of its categories. Nevertheless, jointly with this probabilities’ record, the practitioners need the predicted value (category) of the variable, so the statistical problem to be covered refers to the way in which this probabilities’ record is transformed into a single value. In this paper we compare the predictive performances of the default method (Bayes Classifier - BC), which assigns a unit to the most likely category, and other two methods (Maximum Difference Classifier and Maximum Ratio Classifier). The BC is the optimal criterion if one is interested in the accuracy of the classification, but, given that it favors the prevalent category most, when there is not a category of interest, it cannot be the best choice. The data under study concern the quality of the red variant of the Portuguese "Vinho Verde" wine (Cortez et al., 2009), measured on a 0-10 scale. Nevertheless, only 6 scores were used, with 2 scores with a very few number of observations, so this is the right context for predictive performance comparisons. In the study, we investigated different merging of categories and we used 11 explanatory variables to estimate the probabilities’ record of the wine quality variable.
Development of Female Gametophyte in Gladiolus italicus Miller (Iridaceae)
Authors: Kartal Ciler , Ekici Nuran , Kargacıoğlu Almina , Nurcan Ağırman Hazal
Published: December 2021

In this study gynoecium, megasporogenesis, megagametogenesis and female gametophyte of Gladiolus italicus Miller were examined cytologically and histologically by using light microscopy techniques. Ovules of G. italicus are of anatropous, bitegmic and crassinucellate type. Embryo sac development is of monosporic Polygonum type. Polar nuclei fuse before fertilization to form a secondary nucleus near the antipodals. The female gametophyte development of G. italicus was investigated for the first time with this study.
Palynological analysis of genus Geranium (Geraniaceae) and its systematic implications using scanning electron microscopy
Authors: Wang Jun , Ye Qiang , Zhang Tong , Shi Xusheng , Khayatnezhad Majid , Shakoor Abdul
Published: December 2021

Pollen morphology of 23 species belonging to Geranium have been studied in details, which represent eight sections of two subgenera i.e., G. sect. Dissecta, Geranium, and Tuberosa of subgen. Geranium, Divaricata, Lucida, Ruberta and Trilopha of subgen. Robertium. These plant species were collected from different phytogeographical regions of Iran. The palynological investigation was done using scanning electron microscopy (SEM) techniques. Different palyno-morphological features have been observed, and the closely related species were distinguished. We used different multivariate statistical methods to reveal the species relationships. Ward clustering analyses have been done to check out the relationship among the species. The shapes of pollen grains were monad, radially symmetric, isopolar, apertures were tricolporate, and of spheroid, prolate-spheroid or sub-prolate classes. Three pollen types were recognized on the basis of differences in exine sculpturing pattern: reticulate-clavate, striate-rugulate, reticulum cristatum with clavae. Observed differences were not of diagnostic importance in subgenera and sections level. The main objective of this study is to find distinguish pollen characters in the species of the genus Geranium and to elucidate their systematics importance.
Dynamics in physico–chemical properties of soils under oil palm plantations of different ages
Authors: Adewale Osinuga Olufemi
Published: December 2021

This research investigated the changes in the physicochemical properties of soils
under oil palm plantations of different ages. Soil surface (0-20 cm) and subsurface (20-40 cm) samples have been obtained from various ages of oil palm plantations (0-5, 5-10, 10-15 and, 15-20 years). Two distinct samples were taken on
the same farm, under alleys and heaped pruned fronds. Soil samples used as a
standard (control) were collected from adjacent forest land. Analyses of particle
size showed that the soils were sandy loam to sandy clay loam texture soils. Bulk
density was low to moderate (0.93 – 1.25 g/cm3), and varied with age and depth.
The soils were moderate to neutral pH (5.38 – 6.81), low to moderate organic carbon (11.6 – 21.7 g/kg) and total nitrogen (1.18 – 2.03 g/kg), and relatively low available phosphorus (4.43 – 6.21 mg/kg) contents. Based on the standard ratings, cation exchangeable capacity content was low (4.93 – 6.15 cmol/kg), while high percent base saturation (85.3 – 93.2%) was observed. The soil properties determined showed that soil nutrients under alleys fluctuated with age whiles that under heaped fronds increased. Research findings have shown that the soil properties of different ages of oil palm plantations vary and should be handled differently based on their characteristics. Accumulation of organic residue on the floor of the plantations should be encouraged as this will help increase organic matter levels.
Effect of Slope Positions on Properties of Soils of some Forest reserves in South-West Nigeria
Authors: K. O. Alabi
Published: December 2021

Topography has an influence on soil erosion and consequently on the properties of soils. The effect of slope position on soil properties is of great importance in soil suitability assessment. This study assessed the effect of topographic position on the characteristics of soil of basement complex rocks derived soils under Teak (Tectona grandis) and Gmelina (Gmelina arborea) plantations in Osun sacred grove, Onigambari and Omo forest reserves situated within South-West Nigeria. Three soil profiles were dug in each landuse type, sited at the upper, middle and lower slope positions along a toposequence. Soil samples were collected according to their pedogenetic horizons and were analyzed using standard methods. Results showed variations in colour, depth of soil profile, soil structure, texture, drainage and soil consistence. The high sand content dominated the particle size fraction in all the soils formed from the three locations, and base saturation was rated very high with values >90% irrespective of the toposequence or slope position. The result of correlation analysis between slope position and content of N, P, K and CEC showed a significant relationship irrespective of locations with N(r = 0.019< 0.05) respectively. Despite variation in soil properties as influenced by topography, the studied soils can sustain the current land use type. It was concluded that soils on different topographic positions should be managed differently.
Quantification of soil and nutrient loss due to yam harvesting: A case study in two local government areas in Benue state, Nigeria.
Authors: Manna Samson Victor , Mercy Ityavnongo Kumawuese
Published: December 2021

Soil loss due to crop harvesting is a recognized erosion process which has significantly contributed to soil degradation. Despite its significance, soil loss due to crop harvesting has been given little attention in Benue state and Nigeria at large. This is evident in the paucity of information on soil loss due to crop harvesting in Nigeria. Therefore a field experiment was conducted to quantify soil and nutrient loss due to yam harvesting in two local government areas (Kwande and Ushongo) of Benue state and to identify factors which could contribute to soil loss in these areas. Data collected on soil loss were subjected to t-test at α = 0.05. Average crop yield in Kwande was 18.9 t ha-1 and 16.3 t ha-1 in Ushongo with corresponding soil loss of 3.26 t ha-1 harvest-1 and 1.97 t ha-1 harvest-1 respectively. Higher soil loss observed in Kwande compared to Ushongo can be attributed to higher crop yield and clay content of the soil. Crop yield, clay content and soil organic matter correlated positively with soil loss in Kwande (r = 0.75, r = 0.58, r = 0.65) while in addition to crop yield and clay content sand correlated negatively with soil loss in Ushongo (r = 0.77, r = 0.60, r = -0.60). Soil nutrient losses for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium were significantly higher in Kwande compared to
Ushongo by 2.71, 2.67 and 2.02 times respectively. The findings suggest that soil
loss in these areas could degrade the land within a short time, especially where
mono-cropping of yam is practiced. Farmers are therefore advised to hand-rub
yam tubers while harvesting on the field and practice crop rotation.
Assessment of the effect of abattoir effluent on soil properties cultivated with flint maize
Authors: M.I Abhanzioya , T .V James
Published: December 2021

The assessment of abattoir effluent on the physicochemical and microbiological
properties of the soil cultivated with flint maize was conducted in the Teaching
and Research Farm of Ambrose Alli University, Ekpoma. The experiment was a
randomized complete block design (RCBD) with five levels of abattoir effluent
(0, 32 x 103, 64 x 10 3, 96 x 103, 128 x 103L/ha) and each was replicated three times. The effluent was collected and analyzed for its chemical properties, the number and types of bacteria and fungi before and at the end of the experiment. Soil samples were collected before planting and at the end of the experiment and analyzed for physicochemical properties as well as the number and types of bacteria and fungi. Maize variety; Samma – 38 was used as a test crop. Results showed that more bacteria and fungi counts were found in the abattoir effluent than in the soil. At 15 weeks after application, the plot treated with 64 x 103 L/ha of abattoir effluent had more bacteria isolated and the least bacteria count. The plot that received the 32 x 103L/ha had the least fungi count. The soil was slightly acidic except for the strongly acidic control. The soil after the applications of abattoir effluent was high in organic matter. Abattoir effluent increased the total N, K, Mg, and Ca with the highest recorded at the applications of 96 x 103L/ha and 128 x 103L/ha. Organisms such as Penicillium and Aspergillus spp were isolated, and these enhanced nitrogen and phosphorous fixation, thereby increasing soil fertility for suitable crop production.
Analysis Of Science Process Skills In Hands On Activity In Application Of The Pode Model In Elementary School
Authors: Herdianto Fiky , Hartono Hartono , Sunarso Ali
Published: December 2021

The low learning outcomes of science in grade IV elementary school. The learning process still uses conventional methods which can cause students to be less directly involved in direct practical activities and active discussion during learning. It is necessary to apply the Hands On Activity approach in the application of the PODE model to improve students' science process skills. The purpose of this study was to analyze the science process skills in Hands On Activity in the application of the PODE learning model in elementary schools. This type of research is a Quasi Experimental Design in the form of Nonequivalent Control Group Design. The sample in this study amounted to 60 fourth grade students. Data collection techniques using observation sheets, indicators of science process skills consist of observing, classifying, experimenting, communicating and concluding. Data analysis used simple and multiple linear regression test. The results showed that the science process skills of the experimental class applying Hands on Activity and the PODE model were 76.4% and 61.2%, while the PODE model control class had an effect of 50.7%. The results of multiple linear tests obtained results of 76.5%, the results of Sig. Simultaneous effect test is 0.000 < 0.05 and Fcount 43.897 > Ftable 3.33, and it can be concluded that there is an effect of Hands on Activity (X1) and PODE model (X2) simultaneously on science process skills.
Wild Grazing Of Beef Cattle In The Buffer Village Of SPTN Region II Sumberwaru Baluran National Park
Authors: Azizah Siti , H. Djunaidi Irfan , Rachmawati Achadiah , Indrati Rositawati , Aghniarahim Putritamara Jaisy , Fahresi Alamanda Zazin , Okta Pradana Deby
Published: December 2021

Baluran National Park faces public pressure in the form of illegal grazing, which threatens the preservation of flora and fauna in it. This study aims to analyze illegal grazing activities that threaten the conservation efforts of Baluran National Park in Sumberwaru Village, Asembagus district, Situbondo. Data collection was carried out from April to June 2021 with a qualitative approach. The data were taken from several key informants, namely 3 Baluran National Park officers, the Village Head of Sumberwaru, the Head of Loka Pasuruan, the Situbondo Livestock Service, and 12 extensive semi-intensive beef cattle breeders. The results showed that the behavior of illegal grazing was caused by cultural factors that did not prioritize profit but only as an investment and indicator of social status. As a result, maintenance management is very efficient and depends on feed that can be obtained for free by grazing wildly in the Baluran National Park conservation area. The solution required is a participatory Collaborative Forest Management that benefits all stakeholders.
AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT: CASE OF SELECTED DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Authors: TUNALI SARI H. Nehrin
Published: December 2021

The main purpose of this study is to examine whether there is a long-term relationship between the economic growth and unemployment. The unemployment rate belonging to 2005:Q1 - 2019:Q1 period of Hungary, Mexico, Poland, Chile and Turkey taking place in economically developing country status and quarterly data belonging to Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) macroeconomic indicators have been used in the study. The existence of the relationship between these two variables is tested by benefiting from the panel data analysis methods. It has been determined that there was no long-term relationship between the unemployment and growth in these countries during the said period according to the findings obtained from the analysis made by using the data of the countries taking place within the scope of the study.
ULUSLARARASI DENİZ HUKUKU KONFERANSLARI ÇERÇEVESİNDE TÜRKİYE’NİN HUKUKİ GÖRÜŞLERİ: DOĞU AKDENİZ ÖRNEĞİ
Authors: SAĞSEN İlhan , BERKUL Ali
Published: December 2021

Devletlerin denizleri sıklıkla ve çok yönlü kullanmaya başlamasıyla birlikte deniz yetki alanlarını belirlemek üzerine çeşitli uluslararası konferanslar yapılmış ve sözleşmeler hazırlanmıştır. Türkiye özellikle son yıllarda denizlerini aktif şekilde kullanan bir ülke olarak yetki alanlarını koruma çabasındadır. Bu minvalde, çeşitli hukuki çekinceleri nedeniyle taraf olmamış olsa da tüm Deniz Hukuku Konferanslarında aktif çaba harcamıştır. Bunun ötesinde Türkiye, başta Ege ve Doğu Akdeniz’de olmak üzere, ortaya koyduğu tüm hukuki argümanlarını 1982 BM Deniz Hukuku Sözleşmesi’nin oluşturduğu teamül hukuku ve Uluslararası Adalet Divanı’nın içtihatları çerçevesinde belirlemektedir. Buna göre, Türkiye Doğu Akdeniz’de meşru haklarını hakkaniyet ölçütüne göre ve uluslararası hukuk kuralları çerçevesinde savunmaktadır. Bu çerçevede, makalenin temel araştırma sorusu Türkiye’nin Deniz Hukuku Konferanslarında aktif şekilde yer almasına rağmen neden taraf olmamayı tercih ettiği hususudur. Bu araştırma sorusuna bağlı olarak makalenin odaklandığı amaç Türkiye’nin taraf olmadığı Deniz Hukuku Sözleşmelerinin teamül haline gelmiş madde ve kavramsallaştırmaları üzerine inşa ettiği argümanını ortaya koymaktır.
Análise multicriterial para avaliação da governança dos recursos hídricos nas bacias dos Rios Piracicaba, Capivari e Jundiaí
Authors: Lino da Luz Diego , Saraiva Rando Ayri , Munhoz de Argollo Ferrão André , Zuffo Antonio Carlos
Published: December 2021

No Brasil, as dificuldades referentes à avaliação da governança dos sistemas de gerenciamento dos recursos hídricos são evidentes, entre elas a seleção de critérios e subcritérios para medição dos níveis de tal governança no âmbito das unidades de gerenciamento dos recursos em questão. O objetivo deste artigo é aplicar a análise multicriterial para avaliação e medição dos níveis de governança do sistema de gerenciamento dos recursos hídricos nas bacias hidrográficas dos rios Piracicaba, Capivari e Jundiaí, no período entre 2013 e 2017. Para isso, tal análise utiliza os seguintes modelos ou métodos: Programação por Compromisso, Teoria dos Jogos Cooperativos, Método Analítico Hierárquico, ELECTRE II e PROMETHE II. Os critérios e subcritérios analisados foram definidos em entrevistas com especialistas ligados diretamente a essa temática, sendo que a atribuição de pesos aos mesmos ocorreu por meio da técnica DELPHI. Os resultados mostram o ano de 2017 como a melhor alternativa em relação ao nível de desempenho de governança nas bacias mencionadas.
Palavras-chave: Análise multicriterial. Modelos de auxílio à decisão. Governança nas Bacias PCJ.
Otimização no planejamento da operação de bombas hidráulicas em sistemas de abastecimento de água para redução dos custos com energia elétrica
Authors: Miquelin Letícia Maria , Garcia Parras Isabela , Faccioli Ana Raquel , Martins Soler Edilaine
Published: December 2021

Diante da crescente demanda por água e energia, faz-se cada vez mais necessário o uso racional e otimizado desses recursos. As despesas com energia elétrica em sistemas de abastecimento representam uma parcela alta de seus custos, e grande parte do consumo de energia deve-se à operação das bombas. Como a tarifa de energia elétrica é diferenciada de acordo com as horas do dia, pesquisas sobre o planejamento da operação das bombas hidráulicas visando à redução dos custos com energia elétrica em tais sistemas vêm sendo feitas há décadas. Devido à dimensão desses sistemas, esse planejamento é uma tarefa complexa. Assim, modelos de otimização e métodos de solução para o planejamento operacional das bombas hidráulicas em sistemas de abastecimento de água têm sido propostos na literatura de forma a viabilizar esse planejamento.
Palavras-chave: Otimização. Bombas Hidráulicas. Sistemas de Abastecimento de Água. Energia Elétrica.
Second-Hand Risk Health Tragedies and Human Right Violations due to Ethanol Consumption. Biochemical basis for metabolic and behavioral Tragedies due to Ethanol Consumption
Authors: Nery Lamothe  , Mara Lamothe  , Daniel Lamothe  , Pilar Bueno  , Alejandro Alonso-Altamirano  , Adriana Clemente-Herrera  , Estuardo Hernández  , Francisco Guillermo Castillo-Vázquez  , Andrés Gerardo Roche
Published: December 2021

Everywhere a nonsmoker who is an alcohol consumer, complains of secondhand smoke, without being aware of second-hand risk health tragedies and human rights violations provoked by alcohol consumption.

Here we analyze the concept, mainly unexplored, of dramatic adverse health effects and of human rights violations against third parties generated for alcohol consumption by others; and also, the harm due to the chemical transient prefrontal lobotomy generated by alcohol consumption.

Alcohol consumption has been a part of the everyday human diet for centuries, especially because of the fact that alcoholic beverages are a safe means of hydration wherever clear water has not been available [1].

Old patients could, simultaneously be part of the alcohol consumers and/or secondhand victims. Before deciding to analyze the geriatric problems, we propose the allegorical model, based on Scott, Ellison, and Sinclair, as it was published in Nature Aging, in July 2021. We divide the theoretical analysis with four fundamental alternatives [2]:

The extension of life (Struldbrug case). In Jonathan Swift's 1726 novel “Gulliver's Travels”, the struldbrugs were humans born apparently normal. The Struldbruggs, however immortal however they age normally, live in continuously deteriorating health. This takes us to the philosophical alternative of: “living or lasting” [2].

To lower morbidity (Dorian Gray case). Narratively, in “The Picture of Dorian Gray” a philosophical novel by Oscar Wilde, Dorian Gray owns a portrait of himself and while the picture ages, Dorian Gray does not change, maintaining his health and appearance until death [2]. Slowing aging (Peter Pan case), In this extreme case, where aging is not just slowed but canceled, the mortality and the health become independent of the age, and thus the individual is ‘forever young’. This constitutes the ‘Peter Pan’ case, after the play and novel about a boy who never grows old. This closely corresponds to the Hypocaloric diet claiming that it slows aging [2].

To reverse aging physical damage is repaired instead of slowed. This is a close analogy to the “Theseus Boat” as well as the regeneration of salamanders and lizards and transplants from donors. Desiderative, this is the future of organoids and the engineering of the pluripotent cell [2].
Landmarks in Romanian History of Anti-Aircraft Artillery
Authors: Gherman Laurian , Roman Cosmina , Żmigrodzka Małgorzata
Published: December 2021

The main purpose of this article is to present the decisive contribution that Brigadier General Ion Bungescu had to the development of anti-aircraft artillery in Romania. To achieve this objective we describe in the paper the evolution of the anti-aircraft gun director computer he invented, as well as its modus operandi. The adopted methods include  quantitative and qualitative analyses of documents, manuals and albums published during the considered period, and some published by Brigadier General Ion Bungescu. The results of the article are presented in the context of the accelerated development of military aviation between the two world wars. This development put terrible pressure on the development of anti-aircraft artillery that started with land guns adapted for anti-aircraft firing in 1916 and reached anti-aircraft guns controlled by Gun Director Computer in 1945. We can compare the development of military aviation during that time with the development of information technology over the last 30 years, from connecting computers in the network to the use of artificial intelligence.
Air defense of the Baltic states. Looking toward the future
Authors: CIEŚLAK Eugeniusz
Published: December 2021

The article offers the discussion of the origins, current state and the future of air defence of the Baltic states. It tries to relate developments in the field of air defense to changes in security environment, and defence polices of the Baltic states. The article starts with a retrospection on origins and developments of air defence of the Baltic states before they joined NATO. Then it focuses on early years of integration with NATO Integrated Air Defense System and implications for air defence of the Baltic states related to changes in the security of the Euro-Atlantic region stemming from Russian aggressive actions. An assessment of current posture of air defence of the Baltic states serves as a starting point for the discussion on requirements for future developments, and predicting possible outcomes. The research uses unclassified, publicly available documents and analytical reports to provide background information for the discussion on the future of air defense of the Baltic states. The Baltic states are aware of the limitations of their air defense, and try to develop this capability within available resources. Changes to security environment after 2014 gave new impetus to the development of air defense of the Baltic states, both for the efforts undertaken by NATO and for national capability development.
Determination of nonlinear forces of the second order arising from the interaction of waves and certain types of ship’s motions
Authors: Семенова В.Ю. , Альбаев Д.А.
Published: December 2021

В статье рассматривается определение нелинейных сил второго порядка, обусловленных взаимодействием набегающего, дифрагированного волнения и волнения, обусловленного различными видами колебаний на основании применения трехмерной потенциальной теории. Для их определения необходимо вычисление потенциалов второго порядка малости. Представленное решение в отечественной практике является новым. Решение задачи осуществляется на основании методов малого параметра и интегральных уравнений с учетом нелинейного граничного условия на свободной поверхностью жидкости. В работе расчет интегралов по свободной поверхности проводится напрямую за счет их сходимости на бесконечном удалении от судна. Нелинейные силы и моменты определяются в работе с использованием различных функций Грина: для бесконечно-глубокой жидкости и жидкости ограниченной глубины, когда . Полученные результаты практически полностью согласуются между собой. Приводятся результаты расчетов нелинейных сил и моментов для разных судов. Расчеты представлены в сравнении с расчетами по двумерной теории, выполненными также для случая бесконечно глубокой жидкости и жидкости ограниченной глубины при больших значениях отношения глубины к осадке H/T. Показано хорошее согласование результатов между собой в большинстве случаев. Показана возможность расчета нелинейных сил, возникающих при взаимодействии волнения и отдельных видов качки на произвольных курсовых углах.

The article considers the definition of nonlinear second-order forces caused by the interaction of incoming, diffracted waves and waves caused by various types of motions based on the application of three-dimensional potential theory. To determine them, it is necessary to calculate the potentials of the second order of smallness. The presented solution is new in domestic practice. The problem is solved on the basis of small parameter methods and integral equations taking into account the nonlinear boundary condition on the free surface of the liquid. The paper shows the possibility of calculating the integrals over the free surface directly due to their convergence at an infinite distance from the ship. Nonlinear forces and moments are determined in the work using various Green's functions: for an infinitely deep fluid and a fluid of limited depth when H → ∞. The results obtained are in almost complete agreement with each other. The results of calculations of nonlinear forces and moments for different ships are presented. The calculations are presented in comparison with the calculations according to the two-dimensional theory, performed also for the case of an infinitely deep liquid and a liquid of limited depth at large values of ratio H / T. A good agreement of the results is shown among themselves in most cases. The possibility of calculating nonlinear forces arising from the interaction of waves and certain types of motions at arbitrary course angles is shown.
Strength analysis of ship shafts made of polymer composite materials
Authors: Коршунов В.А. , Мудрик Р.С. , Пономарев Д.А. , Родионов А.А.
Published: December 2021

В работе отмечена актуальность применения ПКМ для перспективных проектов судов при отсутствии инженерных методов расчета параметров НДС таких изделий. Сделана попытка исследования возможностей аналитического и численного подходов для анализа прочностных и жесткостных характеристик судовых валов из ПКМ. Разработана расчетная модель вала в виде цилиндрической оболочки, составленной из пакета нескольких монослоев, каждый из которых сформирован из армирующего волокна и связующей матрицы. Представлены аналитические зависимости для вычисления обобщенных характеристик жесткости оболочки вала и параметров НДС как оболочки в целом, так и ее монослоев. Эти зависимости использованы для расчетного исследования параметров прочности промежуточного вала из ПКМ для танкера химовоза. В процессе исследования варьировалась ориентация и количество монослоев в пакете. Верификация полученных результатов выполнена с помощью расчетных моделей МКЭ. В результате установлено, что аналитические зависимости позволяют получить достоверные результаты параметров НДС композитного тела вала, которые можно уверенно использовать в расчетном проектировании конструкций из ПКМ для анализа плоского напряженно-деформированного состояния оболочки вала.

he relevance of the use of PCM for the first projects of ships in the absence of engineering methods for calculating the parameters of the strength of such products is noted. In structural mechanics, there are methods for calculating the strength of multicomponent anisotropic materials, but they are difficult to adapt to engineering methods of verification calculation and design. The article attempts to study the possibilities of analytical and FEM approaches for analyzing the strength and stiffness of ship shafts made of PCM. A model of the shaft consisting of a package of several monolayers. Analytical dependences are presented for calculating the characteristics of the stiffness of the shaft shell. These dependences are used for the computational study of the strength parameters of the intermediate shaft made of PCM for tanker. Verification of the obtained results was carried out using of the FEM. As a result, it is established that the analytical dependences allow us to obtain reliable results of the stress-strain parameters of the composite shaft housing, which can be used in the computational design of PCM structures to analyze the flat stress-strain state of the shaft shell.
Algorithm for forming the cluster of labor instruments of investments-perspective production systems in shipbuilding
Authors: Алехин М.Ю. , Ваучский А.Н.
Published: December 2021

Статья посвящена проблеме повышения эффективности управления реструктуризацией производственных систем (ПС) судостроения в целях поддержания конкурентоспособности предприятий и повышения привлекательности судостроения для инвесторов. Авторами, с использованием метода направленного поиска рационального варианта и кластерной группировки элементов ПС, предложен алгоритм и математическая модель определения экономически перспективных точек ПС судостроения, нуждающихся в инновационных преобразованиях. Научная методология исследования основана на фундаментальных положениях теории графов и комплексном рассмотрении вопросов управления изменениями в хозяйственных системах. Реализация предложенного алгоритма может быть использована для «количественного» решения управленческих задач эффективного развития ПС судостроительного предприятия и повышения его рыночной стоимости. Это создаст предпосылки к эффективному воспроизводству капитала в реальном производстве и хеджированию финансовых рисков, сопутствующих этим процессам в судостроении.

This article considers issue of increasing efficiency of restructuring management of production systems (PS) in shipbuilding in order to support competitive ability of yards and to increase appeal of shipbuilding industry for investors. Authors by using method of directed search of rational option and cluster grouping of PS components propose an algorithm and mathematical model for determination of economically perspective components of PS in shipbuilding that need innovative conversion. Scientific methodology of present research is based on fundamental provisions of graph theory and integrated consideration of issues, related to change management in business systems. Implementation of proposed algorithm may be used for quantitative solution of management problems, related to effective development of PS of yard and for increasing market value of the same. This will create background for effective reproduction of capital in real production and hedging of financial risks, related to this process in shipbuilding.
Inactive capacity compensation device in frequency converters in the composition of electric power systems of marine vehicles
Authors: Дмитриев Б.Ф. , Галушин С.Я. , Корнев А.С. , Балицкая К.В.
Published: December 2021

Управление режимами работы гребного электрического двигателя осуществляется полупроводниковыми преобразователями частоты, применение которых значительно ухудшает качество электроэнергии на общих шинах судовых электроэнергетических систем. Основными причинами являются уменьшение коэффициента мощности и появление высших гармоник в потребляемом токе. В результате этого снижается надежность работы потребителей, и увеличиваются потери электроэнергии. Поэтому уменьшение указанных негативных последствий является актуальной задачей. В связи с этим, большое внимание уделяется вопросам, связанным с изучением и разработкой различных методов и устройств обеспечения качества электроэнергии, увеличения коэффициента мощности и фильтрации высших гармоник. В настоящее время, перспективным методов улучшения качества электроэнергии, является применение устройств управления реактивной мощностью и активной фильтрации, т.е. компенсаторов неактивной мощности. Подобные системы можно применять не только для надводных судов, но и в автономных подводных транспортных средствах, в качестве энергетической установки которых выступает батарея топливных элементов.

The control of the operating modes of the propulsion electric motor is carried out by semiconductor frequency converters, the use of which significantly degrades the quality of electricity on the common buses of the ship power systems. The main reasons are a decrease in the power factor and the appearance of higher harmonics in the current consumption. As a result, the reliability of the consumers is reduced, and the losses of electricity increase. Therefore, the reduction of these negative consequences is an urgent task. In this regard, much attention is paid to issues related to the study and development of various methods and devices for ensuring the quality of electricity, increasing the power factor and filtering higher harmonics. Currently, a promising method for improving the quality of electricity is the use of reactive power control devices and active filtering, i.e. compensators of inactive power. Such systems can be used not only for surface crafts, but also in autonomous underwater vehicles, the power plant of which is a fuel-cell stack.