Threats and risks to health in emergency situations: biomedical, predictive analytical, and mathematical aspects
Authors: Melnikov O. A. , Kraevoy S. A. , Bolekhan V. N. 
Published: December 2024

Introduction. The methodology for assessing health threats and risks is becoming increasingly in demand in the public management of the sanitary and epidemiological welfare of the population. New biomedical, predictive analytical, and mathematical approaches are being developed to assess and analyze health threats and risks in emergencies, including within biological risk monitoring. These issues require a scientifically based comprehensive consideration drawing on various scientific fields, including medicine, biology, management, prediction, sociology, and mathematics (probability theory, set theory, measure theory, etc.). To solve this problem, the authors adopted a convergent approach, paying special attention to the role of effective threat and risk management, which has a significant impact on the quality of life of people exposed to adverse factors in emergency situations.

Objective. To improve the technology for analyzing and predicting threats and risks to human health in emergencies using a convergent multidisciplinary approach.

Materials and methods. The authors searched electronic bibliographic databases in the Russian (eLibrary and CyberLeninka) and English (Web of Science, Scopus, PubMed, Google Scholar, and Cochrane Library) languages. The database “Regulatory Legal Acts on Radiation, Chemical, and Biological Monitoring” created at the Centre for Strategic Planning of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency served as the basis for analyzing regulatory documents. As the information platform in this study, the authors used the information system of the Federal Information and Analytical Center for Monitoring Biological Risks, which aggregates data on the monitoring of biological risks falling within the competence of the Federal Medical and Biological Agency, The predictive and analytical part of the study was scientifically justified using the database “Methods of Scientific Prediction” created at the Centre for Strategic Planning, which contains systematized methodological prognostic information. The theoretical methods used in the study include logical methods (analysis and synthesis of knowledge; analogy method), mathematical methods (modeling, probability theory, measure theory, graph theory, and set theory), and the method of theoretical generalization.

Results. In the study, the existing approaches to assessing health threats and risks arising in emergency situations are summarized and systematized; their main characteristics and key parameters are considered. The phases of the process involving the emergence of threats and risks to health and the specifics of their management are analyzed. The scientific medical and biological point of view on the essence and general characteristics of health threats and risks is presented. The predictive analytical and mathematical aspects of the problem under consideration are outlined. An example algorithm for predictive and analytical calculation of indicators characterizing the resource capability and readiness of the healthcare system to adequately respond to a biological threat is described in detail. The required bed capacity of medical organizations is assessed, as well as the need for artificial lung ventilation devices in case of an epidemic; the final values are calculated. The analysis of the specified issues using a comprehensive convergent approach creates the prerequisites for effective management of health threats and risks in emergency situations.

Conclusions. Predictive and analytical approaches are based on advanced ideas and mechanisms, including risk-based technologies, digital certification of territories and objects, active use of geoinformation developments, assessment procedures drawing on the combination of estimated and field data, situation modeling under changing or specified conditions, consideration of combined impact factors, etc. Characterizing the risk through a health hazard measure that combines the probability of health threats occurring in an emergency and the consequences of adverse effects for life and health, the authors define the value of risk as the mathematical expectation of the product of a function for assessing damage (consequences) to the health of an organism/population and the probability of combined impact of adverse factors in an emergency.