bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Episiotomy Counts: Trends and Prevalence in Canada, 1981/1982 to 1993/1994
Authors: Graham Ian D. , Graham Dawn Fowler
Published: August 2010

Background:

The purpose of this study was to produce a minimum estimate of the prevalence of episiotomy use in Canada, and to investigate the trend in its use between 1981/1982 and 1993/1994.

Method:

A retrospective population case series study was conducted using hospital discharge abstracts. Outcome measures were the count of episiotomies performed during a 12‐month period and the episiotomy rate per 100 vaginal births.

Results:

For more than a decade, official statistics have significantly underreported episiotomy use by as much as 50 percent. In 1993/1994 at least 37.7 percent of women giving birth vaginally in Canada are known to have received an episiotomy. Between 1981/1982 and 1993/1994 its prevalence declined 29.1 percent, with the greatest decline occurring during the 1990s. This decline did not result from changes in parity in the population. The decrease in episiotomy use during this 13‐year period is more than twice that found in the United States (a decline of only 13.6%).

Conclusions:

The reporting of official statistics on obstetric procedures in Canada should be modified to include all known cases of episiotomy. The observed downward trend in the rate of this procedure is encouraging, and is in the direction of evidence‐based recommendations advocating its restrictive use. (BIRTH 24:3, September 1997)
Reasons To Stay, Reasons To Go: Results of an Australian Population‐Based Survey
Authors: Brown Stephanie , Lumley Judith
Published: August 2010

Background:

Debate about early obstetric discharge is occurring simultaneously in several different countries. An Australian population‐based survey of recent mothers investigated women's views about shorter postnatal stays and assessed the impact of early discharge on important maternal health outcomes.

Method:

Women's views and experiences of length of hospital stay were gathered by means of a statewide postal survey of all women who gave birth in Victoria, Australia, during two weeks in 1993. Questionnaires were mailed to women 6 to 7 months after the birth; 62.5 percent (n = 1336) responded.

Results:

Most of the sample (64%) stayed in hospital for 5 or more days after the birth, 26.6 percent left on day 3 or 4, and 9.4 percent on day 1 or 2. Compared with women who stayed for 5 or more days, women who left in the first 48 hours were more likely to be multiparous; to have attended public models of care (public hospital clinic, shared care, public general practitioner, birth center); not to have private health insurance; to have experienced a lower level of obstetric intervention; and to have a very low income. Twenty‐one percent of women who left within 48 hours, and 26 percent of those who left on day 3 or 4 described their stay as too short. Women who left on day 3 or 4, or within 48 hours, were not more likely to experience any of the adverse outcomes investigated in the study: breastfeeding problems, low confidence about caring for the baby, or depression 6 to 7 months after birth. Women who left on day 3 or 4 had slightly lower rates of breastfeeding at 3 and 6 months than women staying for longer or shorter periods.

Conclusion:

Concerns about possible adverse outcomes resulting from shorter postnatal stays were not borne out by the study findings. Large and carefully designed randomized trials are needed to resolve continuing uncertainties about the safety and possible benefits of shorter hospital stays. (BIRTH 24:3, September 1997)
The incidence of injuries in persons with and without epilepsy—A population‐based study
Authors: Kwon Churl‐Su , Liu Mingfu , Quan Hude , Wiebe Samuel , McChesney Jane , Wirrell Elaine , Hamiwka Lorie , Jetté Nathalie
Published: August 2010

Purpose:  To compare the 1‐year population‐based incidence and types of injuries in persons with and without epilepsy.

Methods:  Three administrative databases (inpatient visits, physician claims, and emergency room visits) were linked from fiscal years 1996–2003 using a provincial insurance plan registry, which captures 99% of a population of 1.4 million in a large Canadian health region. Epilepsy cases (all age groups) from fiscal year 1996–2002 were identified. Three people without epilepsy were matched to one person with epilepsy for age (±1 year) and sex. Injuries were defined as any of 16 types of injuries for which medical attention was sought that occurred within fiscal year 2003.

Results:  Eight thousand eight hundred ninety subjects with epilepsy were identified and matched to 26,670 controls for age and sex. The mean age was 37.4 years (range 0.01–96.4 years), and 51.3% of subjects were male. The 1‐year incidence of one or more injuries was 20.6% among persons with epilepsy and 16.1% among those without epilepsy (p < 0.001). Of the 16 types of injuries studied, 11 were higher in persons with epilepsy compared to those without epilepsy, and included fractures, crushing injuries, intracranial injuries, other types of head injuries, and multiple injuries. The difference was still significant after adjusting for age, gender, and comorbidities.

Discussion:  The 1‐year incidence of injuries in this study was greater in persons with epilepsy compared to those without epilepsy, for nearly all injury types. Injury prevention should be discussed during routine visits in persons with epilepsy.
The incidence of epilepsy in a rural district of Vietnam: A community‐based epidemiologic study
Authors: Tuan Nguyen Anh , Cuong Le Quang , Allebeck Peter , Chuc Nguyen Thi Kim , Persson Hans E. , Tomson Torbjörn
Published: August 2010

Purpose:  Epidemiologic studies of epilepsy from developing countries are scarce. As part of a population‐based epidemiologic project in Vietnam, EPIBAVI, we studied the incidence and etiology of epilepsy in people in a representative rural region of the country.

Methods:  Two identical field surveys were carried out 3 years apart (January to December 2005, and June to December 2008) in the same population of the Bavi District in Vietnam. On both occasions, close to 50,000 members of approximately 13,000 households were screened using a questionnaire for epilepsy. A clinical examination of all screened positive was performed by a neurologist to verify the epilepsy diagnosis, and all incident cases were offered EEG and a CT scan.

Results:  In the first survey 2.8% screened positive according to the questionnaire. Of these, 19 had epilepsy onset within 1 year preceding the screening, yielding an incidence rate of 40.2 per 100,000 [95% confidence interval (CI) 22.1–58.3]. In the second survey 1.8% were screened positive, and 21 of these had epilepsy onset within 1 year preceding the screening, giving an incidence rate of 42.9 per 100,000 (95% CI 24.5–61.2). The age‐adjusted incidence was 44.8 per 100,000 (95% CI 30.6–59.0). The incidence was higher in those younger than 16 years, among people with lower education, and among people with lower income. CT scan was performed in 29 cases and only two cases were found with some abnormalities.

Discussion:  The incidence rate of epilepsy in rural Vietnam in our study was lower than in developing countries in Latin America and Africa and similar to rates in Europe and North America.
The effect of valproate and levetiracetam on steroidogenesis in forskolin‐stimulated H295R cells
Authors: Von Krogh Kristine , Harjen Hannah , Almås Camilla , Zimmer Karin E. , Dahl Ellen , Olsaker Ingrid , Taubøll Erik , Ropstad Erik , Verhaegen Steven
Published: August 2010

Purpose:  Endocrine disruptive effects have been frequently observed in patients using antiepileptic drugs (AEDs). Two different AEDs, valproate (VPA) and levetiracetam (LEV), were tested in forskolin‐stimulated human adrenal carcinoma (H295R) cells to explore their effect on steroidogenesis. VPA has a long history as an anticonvulsant and is linked with many of the endocrine disorders associated with AED use. LEV is a newer AED, and no endocrine disruptive effects have been reported in humans to date.

Methods:  H295R cells, which are capable of full steroidogenesis, were stimulated with forskolin and exposed to either VPA or LEV for 48 h. Medium was collected and analyzed for hormone production. For the VPA‐exposed cells, steroidogenic gene expression analysis was also conducted.

Results:  VPA exposure resulted in a significant reduction in progesterone and estradiol (E2) production, whereas testosterone (T) levels remained unchanged. There were also significant alterations in expression level for most genes analyzed. LEV exposure resulted in a minor, but statistically significant, reduction in T and E2 production.

Discussion:  Exposure of forskolin‐stimulated H295R cells to VPA led to an increased T/E2 ratio through a significant decrease in estradiol production. Gene analysis suggested that VPA affects NR0B1 expression. NR0B1 inhibits promoters of other genes involved in steroidogenesis, and the altered expression of NR0B1 might explain the observed down‐regulation in hormone production. The effects of LEV exposure on hormone secretion were not considered to be biologically significant.
A Toxic‐Metabolic Hypothesis of Pathogenesis of Alcoholic Pancreatitis
Authors: Dreiling David A. , Bordalo Orlando
Published: August 2010

Rejecting the big duct hypothesis of alcoholic pancreatitis, a toxic‐metabolic hypothesis, in which the acinar cells and ductular system participate, is offered instead. This hypothesis explains the latent period from alcoholism inception to clinical signs of pancreatitis and clarifies the secretory changes at various stages of the disorder.
A Developmental Study of Ethanol Effect on Behavior and Physical Development in Mice
Authors: Yanai Joseph , Ginsburg Benson E.
Published: August 2010

The eyes of DBA mouse offspring opened one day later than normal when the mothers took low doses of alcohol daily. No morphological abnormalities were found, and fertility, litter size. and litter viability were not affected significantly. However. these doses were sufficient to induce marked behavioral changes in the offspring.
Medical Surveillance Program of the New Epidemiological and Special Studies Branch of NIAAA: An Approach to an Epidemiologic Program on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism
Authors: Brody Jacob A.
Published: August 2010

The long‐range goal of the program is to collect data to gradually define the scope, trends, and overall patterns of alcohol consumption and abuse. Emphasis is on three concepts: measurement through surveillance. psychosocial research to define the contexts in which drinking occurs, and medical epidemiology to demonstrate to what extent alcohol is a risk factor for specific diseases.
Excretion of Radioactivity Following the Administration of 35Sulfur‐Labeled Disulfiram in Man
Authors: Iber Frank L. , Dutta Sudhir , Shamszad Mahin , Krause Sandra
Published: August 2010

Following ingestion, disulfiram is rapidly excreted in the urine and breath, with 90% of the dose gone in 3 days. In some subjects, the enzymes in the liver that oxidized diethyldithiocarbamate to carbon disulfide are very active, making this the principal metabolic pathway. However, if this pathway is not active, there is an increased excretion of DDC into the urine.
The Persistence of the Alcohol‐Disulfiram Reaction After Discontinuation of Drug in Patients With and Without Liver Disease
Authors: Iber Frank L. , Chowdhury Bhanwarial
Published: August 2010

Fifty‐two normals and 15 patients with liver disease were studied with a 5‐g challenge dose of ethanol at various intervals after stopping disulfiram 24 hr previously. The reaction to disulfiram and ethanol does not persist beyond 24 hr in normal patients, but in patients with abnormal liver function, it may continue for as long as 96 hr.
A Progressive Diagnostic Schema for Alcoholism with Evidence of Clinical Efficacy
Authors: Brown Joseph , Lyons Joseph P.
Published: August 2010

A diagnostic schema for alcoholism is described. Based upon the National Council on Alcoholism criteria for alcoholism diagnosis, this schema permits the classification of any client into one of five mutually exclusive diagnostic categories. The schema is applied to data from an independent study. A significant client‐type by treatment‐type interaction is reported as evidence of the schema's clinical utility. The discussion outlines the need for further diagnostic refinements within the criteria and suggests possible uses of the schema as a research tool.
Neuropsychological Effect of Chronic Alcoholism on Tactual‐Spatial Performance and Memory in Males
Authors: Jenkins Robert L. , Parsons Oscar A.
Published: August 2010

To examine the hypothesis that the functioning of the right hemisphere is disrupted as a result of prolonged alcohol abuse, male middle‐aged alcoholic patients and nonalcoholic controls were tested on the standard‐Tactual Performance Test (TPT) from the Hatstead‐Reitan Neuropsychological Test Battery or on a modified form of the TPT employing stimuli of low verbal codability. On the standard TPT, alcoholic patients were impaired relative to controls on timed performance and memory for TPT figures but not for location. Analysis of the pattern of timed performance indicated the presence of an alcohol‐related deficit for the left hand; however, right‐hand scores were not impaired in alcoholic patients. For the modified TPT, alcoholic patients were impaired relative to controls for level but not pattern of timed performance; memory for TPT figures was impaired in alcoholic patients although location scores were not. The standard and modified TPT were found to discriminate alcoholic and control subjects with equal accuracy. The results support the hypothesis that chronic alcoholism leads to a disruption in the normal functioning of the right cerebral hemisphere.
Night Driving (Mesopic) Visual Acuity in Sober Male Alcoholics with and without Liver Disease
Authors: Campbell T. D. , Sampliner R. E. , Russell R. M. , Garrett M. S.
Published: August 2010

Night driving (mesopic) visual acuity and recovery after dazzle has been reported to be reduced in patients with liver disease. Mesopic visual acuity and dazzle recovery were evaluated in 32 patients with alcoholic cirrhosis, 29 alcoholics without liver disease, and 27 age‐matched normal controls. All subjects were sober for at least 7 days prior to visual testing, a mean sobriety period of 22 and 39 weeks in alcoholics and cirrhotics, respectively. Serum vitamin A levels and/or dark adaptation were normal in all. Mean best decimal acuities were not significantly different among the groups: alcoholic cirrhotics, 0.32 ± 0.02; alcoholics, 0.32 ± 0.02; and normals, 0.33 ± 0.03 at 2 min. Although cirrhotics had significantly higher SGOT and lower albumin levels than alcoholics, mesopic acuity did not relate to liver blood tests. Decimal acuity following a dazzle stimulus was not significantly worse in cirrhotics and alcoholics compared to normals. Sober patients with alcoholic cirrhosis or a history of alcoholism have no evidence of a static mesopic visual defect and therefore may not have impaired night driving vision.
Effect of Ethyl Alcohol on Visual Evoked Potentials
Authors: Erwin C. W. , Linnoila M.
Published: August 2010

Effects of ethyl alcohol on visual evoked potentials were studied in 12 healthy volunteers. Alcohol significantly reduced the amplitude and prolonged the latency of the N2‐P2 components of the centrally derived flash evoked potential. Amplitude attenuation was positively correlated with alcohol doses of 0.8 and 1.2 g/ kg. Analysis of subsets of data revealed the amplitude attenuation to be time related and not present in the initial five responses after alcohol. Possible neurochemical mechanisms related to the amplitude attenuation are discussed.
Peak Blood Alcohol Levels in Men at High Risk for the Future Development of Alcoholism
Authors: Schuckit Marc A.
Published: August 2010

Studies utilizing diverse methaodologies in different populations have consistently demonstrated that alcoholism appears to be a genetically influenced disorder. One biological mechanism which could hypothetically influence the acute effects and metabolism of ethanol is the rate of alcohol absorption, a trait found to be relatively consistent for any one individual under similar conditions. This investigation tested the possibility that the magnitude of and time to peak blood alcohol level might be involved in a genetic propensity toward alcoholism with suitable controls. The study has revealed no differences in the time elapsed between oral intake and peak blood alcohol concentration and no differential in the height of the peak alcohol concentration for the two groups. The results are not consistent with the rate of absorption as an important mediator of a genetic propensity in alcoholism.
Residential Radon in Canada: An Uncertainty Analysis of Population and Individual Lung Cancer Risk
Authors: Brand Kevin P. , Zielinski Jan M. , Krewski Daniel
Published: August 2010

Following a comprehensive evaluation of the health risks of radon, the U.S. National Research Council (US‐NRC) concluded that the radon inside the homes of U.S. residents is an important cause of lung cancer. To assess lung cancer risks associated with radon exposure in Canadian homes, we apply the new (US‐NRC) techniques, tailoring assumptions to the Canadian context. A two‐dimensional uncertainty analysis is used to provide both population‐based (population attributable risk, PAR; excess lifetime risk ratio, ELRR; and life‐years lost, LYL) and individual‐based (ELRR and LYL) estimates. Our primary results obtained for the Canadian population reveal mean estimates for ELRR, PAR, and LYL are 0.08, 8%, and 0.10 years, respectively. Results are also available and stratified by smoking status (ever versus never). Conveniently, the three indices (ELRR, PAR, and LYL) reveal similar output uncertainty (geometric standard deviation, GSD ≈ 1.3), and in the case of ELRR and LYL, comparable variability and uncertainty combined (GSD ≈ 4.2). Simplifying relationships are identified between ELRR, LYL, PAR, and the age‐specific excess rate ratio (ERR), which suggest a way to scale results from one population to another. This insight is applied in scaling our baseline results to obtain gender‐specific estimates, as well as in simplifying and illuminating sensitivity analysis.
Quantitative Estimates of Risk for Noncancer Endpoints
Authors: Clewell Harvey J. , Crump Kenny S.
Published: August 2010

While quantitative estimates of risk have been a standard practice in cancer risk assessment for many years, no similar practice is evident in noncancer risk assessment. We use two recent examples involving methylmercury and arsenic to illustrate the negative impact of this discrepancy on risk communication and cost‐benefit analysis. We argue for a more balanced treatment of cancer and noncancer risks and suggest an approach for reaching this goal.
Development of the PEARLS Model (Particulate Exposure from Ambient to Regional Lung by Subgroup) and Use of Monte Carlo Simulation to Predict Internal Exposure to PM2.5 in Toronto1
Authors: Gower Stephanie K. , McColl Stephen
Published: August 2010

Air pollution is a current and growing concern for Canadians, and there is evidence that ambient levels that meet current exposure standards may be associated with mortality and morbidity in Toronto, Canada. Evaluating exposure is an important step in understanding the relationship between particulate matter (PM) exposure and health outcomes. This report describes the PEARLS model (Particulate Exposure from Ambient to Regional Lung by Subgroup), which predicts exposure distributions for 11 age‐gender population subgroups in Toronto to PM2.5 (PM with a median aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 μm or less) using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. The model uses physiological and activity pattern characteristics of each subgroup to determine region‐specific lung exposure to PM2.5, which is defined as the mass of PM2.5 deposited per unit time to each of five lung regions (two extrathoracic, bronchial, bronchiolar, and alveolar). The modeling results predict that children, toddlers, and infants have the broadest distributions of exposure, and the greatest chance of experiencing extreme exposures in the alveolar region of the lung. Importance analysis indicates that the most influential model variables are air exchange rate into indoor environments, time spent outdoors, and time spent at high activity levels. Additionally, a “critical point” was defined and introduced to the PEARLS to investigate the effects of possible threshold‐pathogenic phenomena on subgroup exposure patterns. The analysis indicates that the subgroups initially predicted to be most highly exposed were likely to have the highest proportion of their population exposed above the critical point. Substantial exposures above the critical point were predicted in all subgroups for ambient concentrations of PM2.5 commonly observed in Toronto after continuous exposure of 24 hours or more.
Additivity of Information Value in Two‐Act Linear Loss Decisions with Normal Priors
Authors: Keisler Jeffrey M.
Published: August 2010

Information about two uncertainties is superadditive in value if the value of information for resolving both uncertainties together exceeds the sum of the value of information for resolving each uncertainty alone. For the two‐act linear loss decision problem with normal priors, conditions are derived for which the expected value of perfect information about two independent risks is superadditive. An approximate condition is also presented. The level of additivity of information value has implications for how risk‐management resources should be allocated to acquisition of information. Several applications show how a variety of decision problems can reduce to the basic problem, and how the general results obtained here can be translated simply to prescriptions for specific situations.
Compressed Natural Gas Bus Safety: A Quantitative Risk Assessment
Authors: Chamberlain Samuel , Modarres Mohammad
Published: August 2010

This study assesses the fire safety risks associated with compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicle systems, comprising primarily a typical school bus and supporting fuel infrastructure. The study determines the sensitivity of the results to variations in component failure rates and consequences of fire events. The components and subsystems that contribute most to fire safety risk are determined. Finally, the results are compared to fire risks of the present generation of diesel‐fueled school buses. Direct computation of the safety risks associated with diesel‐powered vehicles is possible because these are mature technologies for which historical performance data are available. Because of limited experience, fatal accident data for CNG bus fleets are minimal. Therefore, this study uses the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach to model and predict fire safety risk of CNG buses. Generic failure data, engineering judgments, and assumptions are used in this study. This study predicts the mean fire fatality risk for typical CNG buses as approximately 0.23 fatalities per 100‐million miles for all people involved, including bus passengers. The study estimates mean values of 0.16 fatalities per 100‐million miles for bus passengers only. Based on historical data, diesel school bus mean fire fatality risk is 0.091 and 0.0007 per 100‐million miles for all people and bus passengers, respectively. One can therefore conclude that CNG buses are more prone to fire fatality risk by 2.5 times that of diesel buses, with the bus passengers being more at risk by over two orders of magnitude. The study estimates a mean fire risk frequency of 2.2 × 10−5 fatalities/bus per year. The 5% and 95% uncertainty bounds are 9.1 × 10−6 and 4.0 × 10−5, respectively. The risk result was found to be affected most by failure rates of pressure relief valves, CNG cylinders, and fuel piping.
BSE Risk Assessment as a Basis for Updating French Screening Policy
Authors: Supervie Virginie , Costagliola Dominique
Published: August 2010

The current French bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) surveillance system, based on rapid testing of all cattle over 24 months of age and on clinical diagnosis, detects all clinical cases and some preclinical cases of BSE. Several indicators point to a marked shrinkage of the French BSE epidemic in recent years, owing to risk reduction measures. Meat and bone meal, the only known vector of the BSE agent, was banned in feed for all farmed species in November 2000. Thus the surveillance system may be relaxed. The objective of this risk assessment study was to provide information for decisionmakers on the minimum age at which healthy and high‐risk cattle now need to be screened with rapid tests. For this purpose, we used the back‐calculation method to project the course of the BSE epidemic. We examined the predicted patterns of the number and age distribution of cases of BSE that would be detected by the different existing surveillance streams. Various theoretical sensitivities of rapid tests were explored. Assuming that feed‐borne sources of infection no longer exist, and that BSE does not occur spontaneously, our models suggest that it would have been possible to raise the minimum age for rapid tests to 66 months in early 2006, whereas theoretical reasoning, based on the assumption that the total meat and bone meal ban was effective in November 2001, suggests that this age cutoff could only be raised to 48 months in early 2006. These results only apply to cattle born and bred in France. If the situation remains unchanged, the age cutoff could be raised incrementally each year.
Exposure Assessment of TSEs from the Landspreading of Meat and Bone Meal
Authors: Cummins Enda , Adkin Amie
Published: August 2010

Recent changes in European legislation have meant that certain processed abattoir waste, which has been appropriately heat treated and ground to a specified particle size, can be spread on nonpasture agricultural land. This has opened the way for the potential landspreading of mammalian meat and bone meal (mMBM) derived from animals slaughtered for human consumption. This article reports on two separate case studies (Study 1 carried out in Great Britain (GB) and Study 2 carried out in Ireland) on the potential exposure to TSE infectivity following the spreading of abattoir waste (derived from animals slaughtered for human consumption) on nonpasture agricultural land. For Study 1, the average TSE infectivity on nonpasture agricultural land per year from sheep with scrapie was found to be higher (five orders of magnitude) than that estimated for BSE in cattle (3.9 × 10−3 Ovine Oral ID50/ton of soil compared to 3.3 × 10−8 Bovine Oral ID50/ton of soil). The mean estimate for BSE in sheep was 8.1 × 10−6 Ovine Oral ID50/ton of soil. The mean level of infectivity in mMBM was assessed to be 1.2 × 10−5 and 2.36 × 10−5 ID50/ton of mMBM for Study 1 and 2, respectively. For Study 2 the spreading of mMBM was estimated to result in infectivity on nonpasture land of 1.62 × 10−8 Bovine Oral ID50/m3. The mean simulated probability of infection per year per bovine animal was 1.11 × 10−9. Given the low infectivity density and corresponding low risks to bovines the spreading of mMBM could be considered a viable alternative for the utilization of mMBM.
The Roles of Group Membership, Beliefs, and Norms in Ecological Risk Perception
Authors: Willis Henry H. , DeKay Michael L.
Published: August 2010

Variability in ecological risk perceptions was investigated by surveying members of four stakeholder groups commonly involved in environmental policy debates. Fifty‐six individuals from government, industry, environmental, and general‐public groups completed a risk‐perception survey in which they evaluated 34 environmental hazards on 17 attributes and also evaluated the riskiness and acceptability of each hazard. In addition, participants reported their environmental beliefs and norms using Dunlap et al.'s revised New Ecological Paradigm Scale and modified versions of Schwartz's Awareness of Consequences and Personal Norms Scales. Group membership was predictive of participants' scores on the belief and norm scales. Factor analysis of attribute ratings (averaged across participants) revealed the anticipated three oblique factors: ecological impacts, scientific understanding, and aesthetic impacts. Factor patterns were very similar for the four stakeholder groups. Factors from the aggregate analysis were predictive of individuals' riskiness judgments, but these relationships were moderated by participants' group membership, beliefs, and norms. Compared to members of other groups, members of the general public placed less emphasis on ecological impacts and more emphasis on the other two factors when judging the ecological riskiness of hazards. To our knowledge, these results represent the first formal tests of interactions between hazard characteristics and participant characteristics in determining riskiness judgments, and illustrate how traditional psychometric analyses can be successfully coupled with individual‐difference measures to improve the understanding of risk perception.
Probabilistic Reliability Modeling for Oil Exploration & Production (E&P) Facilities in the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve
Authors: Zambrano Lyda , Sublette Kerry , Duncan Kathleen , Thoma Greg
Published: August 2010

The aging domestic oil production infrastructure represents a high risk to the environment because of the type of fluids being handled (oil and brine) and the potential for accidental release of these fluids into sensitive ecosystems. Currently, there is not a quantitative risk model directly applicable to onshore oil exploration and production (E&P) facilities. We report on a probabilistic reliability model created for onshore exploration and production (E&P) facilities. Reliability theory, failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA), and event trees were used to develop the model estimates of the failure probability of typical oil production equipment. Monte Carlo simulation was used to translate uncertainty in input parameter values to uncertainty in the model output. The predicted failure rates were calibrated to available failure rate information by adjusting probability density function parameters used as random variates in the Monte Carlo simulations. The mean and standard deviation of normal variate distributions from which the Weibull distribution characteristic life was chosen were used as adjustable parameters in the model calibration. The model was applied to oil production leases in the Tallgrass Prairie Preserve, Oklahoma. We present the estimated failure probability due to the combination of the most significant failure modes associated with each type of equipment (pumps, tanks, and pipes). The results show that the estimated probability of failure for tanks is about the same as that for pipes, but that pumps have much lower failure probability. The model can provide necessary equipment reliability information for proactive risk management at the lease level by providing quantitative information to base allocation of maintenance resources to high‐risk equipment that will minimize both lost production and ecosystem damage.
Benchmark Analysis for Quantifying Urban Vulnerability to Terrorist Incidents
Authors: Piegorsch Walter W. , Cutter Susan L. , Hardisty Frank
Published: August 2010

We describe a quantitative methodology to characterize the vulnerability of U.S. urban centers to terrorist attack, using a place‐based vulnerability index and a database of terrorist incidents and related human casualties. Via generalized linear statistical models, we study the relationships between vulnerability and terrorist events, and find that our place‐based vulnerability metric significantly describes both terrorist incidence and occurrence of human casualties from terrorist events in these urban centers. We also introduce benchmark analytic technologies from applications in toxicological risk assessment to this social risk/vulnerability paradigm, and use these to distinguish levels of high and low urban vulnerability to terrorism. It is seen that the benchmark approach translates quite flexibly from its biological roots to this social scientific archetype.
Hurricane Destructive Power Predictions Based on Historical Storm and Sea Surface Temperature Data
Authors: Bogen Kenneth T. , Jones Edwin D. , Fischer Larry E.
Published: August 2010

Forecasting destructive hurricane potential is complicated by substantial, unexplained intraannual variation in storm‐specific power dissipation index (PDI, or integrated third power of wind speed), and interannual variation in annual accumulated PDI (APDI). A growing controversy concerns the recent hypothesis that the clearly positive trend in North Atlantic Ocean (NAO) sea surface temperature (SST) since 1970 explains increased hurricane intensities over this period, and so implies ominous PDI and APDI growth as global warming continues. To test this “SST hypothesis” and examine its quantitative implications, a combination of statistical and probabilistic methods were applied to National Hurricane Center HURDAT best‐track data on NAO hurricanes during 1880–2002, and corresponding National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration Extended Reconstruction SST estimates. Notably, hurricane behavior was compared to corresponding hurricane‐specific (i.e., spatiotemporally linked) SST; previous similar comparisons considered only SST averaged over large NAO regions. Contrary to the SST hypothesis, SST was found to vary in a monthly pattern inconsistent with that of corresponding PDI, and to be at best weakly associated with PDI or APDI despite strong correlation with corresponding mean latitude (R2= 0.55) or with combined mean location and a ∼90‐year periodic trend (R2= 0.70). Over the last century, the lower 75% of APDIs appear randomly sampled from a nearly uniform distribution, and the upper 25% of APDIs from a nearly lognormal distribution. From the latter distribution, a baseline (SST‐independent) stochastic model was derived predicting that over the next half century, APDI will not likely exceed its maximum value over the last half century by more than a factor of 1.5. This factor increased to 2 using a baseline model modified to assume SST‐dependence conditioned on an upper bound of the increasing NAO SST trend observed since 1970. An additional model was developed that predicts PDI statistics conditional on APDI. These PDI and APDI models can be used to estimate upper bounds on indices of hurricane power likely to be realized over the next century, under divergent assumptions regarding SST influence.
Bayesian Estimation of Pharmacokinetic and Pharmacodynamic Parameters in a Mode‐of‐Action‐Based Cancer Risk Assessment for Chloroform
Authors: Liao Kai H. , Tan Yu‐Mei , Conolly Rory B. , Borghoff Susan J. , Gargas Michael L. , Andersen Melvin E. , Clewell Harvey J.
Published: August 2010

Chloroform is a carcinogen in rodents and its carcinogenicity is secondary to events associated with cytotoxicity and regenerative cell proliferation. In this study, a physiologically based pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PBPK/PD) model that links the processes of chloroform metabolism, reparable cell damage, cell death, and regenerative cellular proliferation was developed to support a new cancer dose‐response assessment for chloroform. Model parameters were estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis in a two‐step approach: (1) metabolism parameters for male and female mice and rats were estimated against available closed chamber gas uptake data; and (2) PD parameters for each of the four rodent groups were estimated from hepatic and renal labeling index data following inhalation exposures. Subsequently, the resulting rodent PD parameters together with literature values for human age‐dependent physiological and metabolism parameters were used to scale up the rodent model to a human model. The human model was used to predict exposure conditions under which chloroform‐mediated cytolethality is expected to occur in liver and kidney of adults and children. Using the human model, inhalation Reference Concentrations (RfCs) and oral Reference Doses (RfDs) were derived using an uncertainty factor of 10. Based on liver and kidney dose metrics, the respective RfCs were 0.9 and 0.09 ppm; and the respective RfDs were 0.4 and 3 mg/kg/day.
Consumer Evaluations of Food Risk Management Quality in Europe
Authors: Van Kleef E. , Houghton J. R. , Krystallis A. , Pfenning U. , Rowe G. , Van Dijk H. , Van der Lans I. A. , Frewer L. J.
Published: August 2010

In developing and implementing appropriate food risk management strategies, it is important to understand how consumers evaluate the quality of food risk management practices. The aim of this study is to model the underlying psychological factors influencing consumer evaluations of food risk management quality using structural equation modeling techniques (SEM), and to examine the extent to which the influence of these factors is country‐specific (comparing respondents from Denmark, Germany, Greece, Slovenia, and the United Kingdom). A survey was developed to model the factors that drive consumer evaluations of food risk management practices and their relative importance (n= 2,533 total respondents). The measurement scales included in the structural model were configurally and metrically invariant across countries. Results show that some factors appear to drive perceptions of effective food risk management in all the countries studied, such as proactive consumer protection, which was positively related to consumers' evaluation of food risk management quality, while opaque and reactive risk management was negatively related to perceived food risk management quality. Other factors appeared to apply only in certain countries. For example, skepticism in risk assessment and communication practices was negatively related to food risk management quality, particularly so in the UK. Expertise of food risk managers appeared to be a key factor in consumers' evaluation of food risk management quality in some countries. However, trust in the honesty of food risk managers did not have a significant effect on food risk management quality. From the results, policy implications for food risk management are discussed and important directions for future research are identified.
A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment Model for Legionnaires' Disease: Animal Model Selection and Dose‐Response Modeling
Authors: Armstrong T. W. , Haas C. N.
Published: August 2010

Legionnaires' disease (LD), first reported in 1976, is an atypical pneumonia caused by bacteria of the genus Legionella, and most frequently by L. pneumophila (Lp). Subsequent research on exposure to the organism employed various animal models, and with quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) techniques, the animal model data may provide insights on human dose‐response for LD. This article focuses on the rationale for selection of the guinea pig model, comparison of the dose‐response model results, comparison of projected low‐dose responses for guinea pigs, and risk estimates for humans. Based on both in vivo and in vitro comparisons, the guinea pig (Cavia porcellus) dose‐response data were selected for modeling human risk. We completed dose‐response modeling for the β‐Poisson (approximate and exact), exponential, probit, logistic, and Weibull models for Lp inhalation, mortality, and infection (end point elevated body temperature) in guinea pigs. For mechanistic reasons, including low‐dose exposure probability, further work on human risk estimates for LD employed the exponential and β‐Poisson models. With an exposure of 10 colony‐forming units (CFU) (retained dose), the QMRA model predicted a mild infection risk of 0.4 (as evaluated by seroprevalence) and a clinical severity LD case (e.g., hospitalization and supportive care) risk of 0.0009. The calculated rates based on estimated human exposures for outbreaks used for the QMRA model validation are within an order of magnitude of the reported LD rates. These validation results suggest the LD QMRA animal model selection, dose‐response modeling, and extension to human risk projections were appropriate.
Changing Forest Disturbance Regimes and Risk Perceptions in Homer, Alaska
Authors: Flint Courtney G.
Published: August 2010

Forest disturbances caused by insects can lead to other disturbances, risks, and changes across landscapes. Evaluating the human dimensions of such disturbances furthers understanding of integrated changes in natural and social systems. This article examines the effects of changing forest disturbance regimes on local risk perceptions and attitudes in Homer, Alaska. Homer experienced a spruce bark beetle (Dendroctonus rufipennis) outbreak with large‐scale tree mortality and a 5,000‐acre fire in 2005. Qualitative interviews and quantitative analysis of mail surveys are used to examine community risk perception and relationships with land managers pre‐ and post‐fire. Results show a decrease in the saliency of the spruce bark beetle as a community issue, a coalescence of community risk perceptions about fire, and conflicting findings about satisfaction with land managers and its relationship with risk perception.
Administrative Failure and the International NGO Response to Hurricane Katrina
Authors: Eikenberry Angela M. , Arroyave Verónica , Cooper Tracy
Published: August 2010

The devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina and the subsequent failure of government agencies and public administrators elicited an unprecedented response by international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs) to a disaster in the United States. This paper focuses on why so many INGOs were compelled to provide humanitarian assistance and relief in the United States for the first time and the administrative barriers they faced while doing so. What does such a response reveal about administrative failures in the wake of Katrina, and what might the implications be for reconceptualizing roles for nonprofit and nongovernmental organizations in disaster relief? The authors answer these questions using data from interviews with INGO representatives, organizational press releases and Web sites, news articles, and official reports and documentation.
Communicating throughout Katrina: Competing and Complementary Conceptual Lenses on Crisis Communication
Authors: Garnett James L. , Kouzmin Alexander
Published: August 2010

Hurricane Katrina was as much a communication disaster as it was a natural and bureaucratic disaster. Communication gaps, missed signals, information technology failures, administrative buffering, turf battles, and deliberate and unintentional misinterpretations delayed and handicapped both the recognition of the crisis that Katrina posed and the response to its devastation. This essay views crisis communication through four conceptual lenses: (1) crisis communication as interpersonal influence, (2) crisis communication as media relations, (3) crisis communication as technology showcase, and (4) crisis communication as interorganizational networking. A conceptual framework is presented that compares these lenses with regard to agency, transparency, technology, and chronology. The planning, response, and recovery stages of the Hurricane Katrina disaster are viewed through these communication conceptual lenses, illustrating key facets of each perspective and adding to our deepening understanding of the events.

Many of the problems we have identified can be categorized as “information gaps”—or at least problems with information‐related implications, or failures to act decisively because information was sketchy at best. Better information would have been an optimal weapon against Katrina. Information sent to the right people at the right place at the right time. Information moved within agencies, across departments, and between jurisdictions of government as well. Seamlessly. Securely. Efficiently … One would think we could share information by now. But Katrina again proved we cannot.

—U.S. House Select Bipartisan Committee

With the floodwalls gashed and hemorrhaging billions of gallons of water into the city, it was only a matter of a few hours on Monday before the communications citywide began to fail … Communication was about to become the biggest problem of the catastrophe.

—Christopher Cooper and Robert Block, Disaster: Hurricane Katrina and the Failure of Homeland Security

Truth became a casualty, news organizations that were patting their own backs in early September were publishing protracted mea culpas by the end of the month.

—Matt Welch, “They Shoot Helicopters, Don’t They?”
Lillian Borrone: Weaving a Web to Revitalize Port Commerce in New York and New Jersey
Authors: Schachter Hindy Lauer
Published: August 2010

In 1988, when Lillian Borrone became the director of the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey’s Port Commerce Department, she was the first woman in the world to head a major port. During her 12‐year tenure, she revitalized the port’s cargo trade. She spearheaded the recovery of a faltering entity through vision, astute marketing, and an inclusive, participatory management style. Her achievements contain valuable lessons for all managers who want to revitalize agency operations. Her career path also serves as a key information source for how women can advance in the male‐dominated transportation field.
Strengthening the Intergovernmental Grant System: Long‐Term Lessons for the Federal–Local Relationship
Authors: Handley Donna Milam
Published: August 2010

This study investigates the longitudinal political and administrative problems associated with federal–local government relations. The findings demonstrate four primary challenges of the system of federal grants‐in‐aid that hinder the relationship of policy design at the federal level and policy implementation in local communities: the politics of decentralization, subnational capacity, program accountability and program adaptability. A case study of the Community Development Block Grant, as assessed by the Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations and the General Accounting Office between 1974 and the present, is included to demonstrate the application of these problems within the system. Although the “evolution of devolution” can greatly benefit the recipients of public services at the local level, it often operates within an unorganized and ineffective system that public managers at all levels of government must continue to develop.
Meeting the Challenges of Policy‐Relevant Science: Bridging Theory and Practice
Authors: Graffy Elisabeth A.
Published: August 2010

Ongoing public debate about the role of science in policy making signifies the importance of advancing theory and practice in the field. Indeed, assumptions about the science–policy nexus hold direct implications for how this interface is managed. A useful lens on contemporary themes is offered by the experience of a federal environmental science program that launched an ambitious effort to enhance capacity for policy relevance while protecting a commitment to sound, impartial scientific inquiry. This was achieved by developing an explicit conceptual model and implementing corresponding strategies that addressed critical gaps in capacity for policy‐relevant research, analysis, and communication while supporting existing capacities. This article describes and evaluates the capacity‐building effort from the dual perspectives of deepening an understanding of successful practice in the field and advancing a conceptual understanding of the science–policy nexus. It illustrates the challenges facing practitioners and the need for greater interaction between theory and practice.