bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
SUCCESSFUL INDUSTRIAL INNOVATIONS: A MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS*
Authors: Utterback James M.
Published: June 2007

The complexity of the process through which new technology is developed requires the use of multivariate models and research hypotheses. However, few studies of innovation have attempted these tools; because of the expense of obtaining large enough samples and the qualitative or nominal nature of most data on technical change.

Descriptive data are available for one large sample (n = 567) of new products and processes. Five industries are represented. These data include characteristics of the innovations such as cost and change required in the production process, and characteristics of the basic information used in their development, such as its source and initiation.

While there are severe limitations and problems of reliability and validity for the data, some encouraging results have been obtained using a multivariate binary classification technique to test several hypotheses. Industry differences have been predicted on the basis of various characteristics of their successful innovations (R2= 0.27) and on the basis of communication characteristics (R2= 0.17). Some more rigorous approaches are suggested for future work.
A BETTER ADDITIVE CONGRUENTIAL RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR?
Authors: Perkins William C. , Menzefricke Ulrich
Published: June 2007

Roger L. Burford reported on a new additive congruential random number generator in the April, 1973 issue of Decision Sciences [1]. Burford claimed a number of advantages for the new generator, including a faster generation time than the commonly used multiplicative generators. This note describes an extensive examination of the Burford generator in comparison with the standard multiplicative generators recommended by Control Data Corporation [3] and IBM [2]. The results indicate that the multiplicative generators require much less computer time than the Burford additive generator. Further, the statistical validity of the Burford generator depends upon the initial numbers chosen for use.
A SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF THE INTERACTION BETWEEN INVENTORIES AND SALES OF MERCHANT WHOLESALERS
Authors: Barksdale Hiram C. , Hilliard Jimmy E.
Published: June 2007

In this study cross‐spectral methods are used to test the hypothesis that inventory investment leads sales of merchant wholesalers through the short‐term, seasonal frequencies, but sales lead inventories through the long‐term, cyclical frequencies. An intuitive explanation and a time‐domain, generating model for the reversal phenomenon are given.
DETECTION AND INCORPORATION OF INTERACTIVE EFFECTS IN DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS
Authors: Richards Larry E.
Published: June 2007

Unless special steps are taken, linear discriminant analysis utilizes only the additive information contained in the selected discriminatory variables. This paper gives the description of procedures designed to detect when and where joint (non‐additive) discriminatory information exists and effective steps for utilizing such information to modify the linear discriminant model.
PIECEWISE APPROXIMATION FUNCTIONS AN EDUCATIONAL NOTE*
Authors: Kraft Arthur
Published: June 2007

This paper gives a survey of piecewise approximation functions. Aside from the use of dummy variables, little research has employed such functions. Piecewise functions permit the dependent variable of a functional relationship to take on different forms with respect to the independent variable on various subintervals of the domain of the independent variable.

Three types of piecewise approximation functions are considered: dummy variables, piecewise linear regressions and cubic splines. The theoretical and empirical properties of such functions are discussed within the context of an illustrative example involving the increase in ridership over time on urban mass transit systems. Dummy variables take account of shifts in the structural relation in a discontinuous fashion. Piecewise regressions and cubic splines allow for structural shifts without discontinuities arising.

Tests are performed to determine whether a linear, quadratic, or cubic piecewise continuous function should be employed. In addition a test is employed to see if structural change occurs in the functional relation at the shift points.
A DECISION MODEL FOR SELECTING ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES
Authors: Solomon Susan L.
Published: June 2007

One important aspect of experimental design is the decision whether to use a one‐ or two‐tailed hypothesis test. Assuming that the sample size and the level of significance have been specified, the selection of an alternative hypothesis can materially affect the conclusion drawn from the experiment. In the past, this selection was made on a subjective basis or for pragmatic reasons which can bias the experiment. This paper suggests an expected value approach, maximizing the expected power of the test, to place the selection of alternative hypotheses in an objective and reliable decision framework.
POLICY‐COMPARING SIMULATION EXPERIMENTS: DESIGN AND ANALYSIS
Authors: Jucker James V. , Gomez Jorge Garcia
Published: June 2007

One of the principal uses of simulation in business and industry is to compare alternative policies or decision rules for the operation and control of complex systems. The immediate objective of such simulation studies is usually quite simple: to discover the best of the several policies under consideration. The measure of effectiveness used is also usually straightforward, often dollars of cost or profit. The basic experimental design that will produce the best comparison of alternatives is generally agreed upon: all policies should be compared under, to the extent possible, identical experimental conditions, i.e., when randomness is involved, all alternatives in a simulation experiment should be simulated using a common sequence of randomly‐generated events.
RATIONALIZATION OF MULTINATION, MULTIPLANT OPERATIONS
Authors: Hinomoto Hirohide
Published: June 2007

This study formulates a linear programming model of a multination, multiplant operation composed of three production stages and a distribution stage. The objective of the model is to maximize the weighted sum of net income produced by all operational units located in different countries. Major cost items include production, distribution, transportation, income tax, and import duty. The correct assessment of import duties on a lot of goods is made possible by identifying the entire sequence of countries in which the lot is processed. A solution to the linear program determines an optimum size of the lot and an optimum sequence of countries passed through by this lot.
SOME OF THE UNDERLYING SELECTION CRITERIA FOR MIDDLE MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN FINANCIAL POSITIONS: A FACTOR ANALYTIC STUDY
Authors: Miller Edwin L. , Hill Raymond E.
Published: June 2007

A sample of middle managers were asked to make ratings regarding the importance of thirteen variables they considered when making decisions to select candidates into the ranks of middle management. These thirteen selection variables were developed based on previous research on managerial selection by Edwin Miller and on research conducted at General Electric by another investigator.

The set of decision variables was then subjected to factor analysis in an effort to recover the fundamental structure of the decision space used to select middle managers. The analysis yielded encouraging results due to the distinctness with which certain factors were indicated. Three fundamental decision criteria were suggested: (1) a leadership‐administrative skills factor, (2) a technical competence factor, and (3) a capability‐willingness to work factor. These three factors were discussed in terms of their relevance to previous research on managerial selection.
CORPORATE RISK MANAGEMENT: A MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION
Authors: Bassler John F.
Published: June 2007

A problem faced by any corporate risk manager, once he has decided what set of properties will be insured, is to choose among the policies offered by potential insurers. This choice usually involves negotiating with insurers over the exact premium and deductible amounts which will characterize the coverage. In this paper, the problem is modeled in terms of expected utility of different forms of coverage. The model enables a risk manager to select among available terms of coverage and, more significantly, provides guidelines for him in negotiating with the insurers to obtain the best possible terms. As an illustration, an application using real data is described.
ANALYSIS OF INFLUENCE SHARING IN JUDGMENTAL FORECASTING: REGRESSION MODELS AND PERCEPTUAL MEASURE
Authors: Bliemel Friedhelm , Cattin Phillipe
Published: June 2007

The committee or group approach is often used where considerable uncertainties have to be handled by skillful judgment. In this paper the authors investigate the subject of influence sharing in judgmental forecasting of commodity prices. They propose a conceptual framework for patterns of influence sharing in groups and for influence roles of individuals. A statistical analysis of the influence of group members on the group forecast leads to inferences about influence pattern and roles in a group.
A CONVERSATIONAL MARKETING DECISION GAME
Authors: Sewall Murphy A.
Published: June 2007

This paper describes the use of a conversational marketing game and compares conversational games to batch games.
A MODEL FOR OPTIMIZING FACILITY DESIGN
Authors: Lingaraj B. P.
Published: June 2007

A chance constrained programming model is developed to arrive at an optimal long‐range design for a manufacturing facility. The determination of process capacities, the amounts of the various types of equipment, and the time‐phasing of the acquisition constitutes facility design in the study. The expected cost is minimised, subject to probabilistic constraints which express the risk associated with demand forecasts. The model is solved by decomposing the deterministic equivalent. The structure of the model enables the solution to be obtained with one iteration. The algorithm is incorporated into a computer code which is applied to the design of a tire plant. The methodology has the potential of extendability to nonmanufacturing systems.
PRODUCTION‐DISTRIBUTION PLANNING IN A LARGE SCALE COMMODITY PROCESSING NETWORK
Authors: Markland Robert E. , Newett Robert J.
Published: June 2007

This paper describes a methodology for production‐distribution planning in a large scale commodity processing network. Based on earlier research efforts dealing with single‐commodity and multi‐commodity distribution system modeling and on production planning for a single‐plant commodity processing facility, a mathematical programming methodology is developed for a multiplant soybean processing network. Application of the model leads to the specification of a production plan for a multi‐period time horizon, while at the same time indicating the quantities of soybean meal and soybean oil to be supplied to various customers in various locales. Both sets of decisions are made under the general criterion of maximizing the net income produced by the soybean processing complex, subject to various production, inventory, capacity, supply and demand constraints. Test results from application of the model are presented and discussed.
REPORT FREQUENCY AND MANAGEMENT DECISIONS
Authors: Meddaugh E. James
Published: June 2007

There is no theory to prescribe how frequently accounting reports should be issued for management decisions; indeed, one research study could not find evidence that frequency of reports is a variable in the decision process. Accounting reports are discrete aggregations from continuous processes, and frequency affects information content of reports. If frequency affects information, it therefore must be a variable in the decision process. This research investigated the question of whether the report frequency had any effect on evaluations made from accounting reports issued on different intervals. Evidence is presented to support the conclusion that frequency is a factor in the decision process and that decision behavior is affected by the frequency of reports. This report merely demonstrates the existence of the report frequency variable; much more research is necessary to control the variable for optimal system design.
MANAGERIAL USE OF DYNAMIC STRUCTURAL MODELS*
Authors: Buffa Elwood S. , Dyer James S.
Published: June 2007

Dynamic structural models were introduced as early as 1958 as “Industrial Dynamics, but there has been little managerial use and little response in the academic world. Yet, the basic modeling methods provide an important mode for examining the broad interacting effects of large systems. More recent work appears to make structural and dynamic models understandable and accessible to individuals not trained in the decision sciences. The nature of the modeling methods is such that managers and policy makers in public systems can be involved directly in the model building process. The authors hope that this survey paper may help rekindle interest.
COMPUTER SUPPORTED INSTRUCTION IN STATISTICS: LONG RANGE IMPLICATIONS
Authors: Schneider Kenneth C.
Published: June 2007

This paper reports results of a study designed to measure the long‐term impact of computer supported instruction in an introductory business statistics course. Very modest behavioral outcomes were found. Computer supported instruction led to strictly short‐term positive attitudinal change toward computers and their value, strictly long‐term positive attitudinal change toward quantitative methods and their value, and sustained positive attitudinal change toward computers as a teaching aid.
MULTIPLE DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS AND SEVERAL SMALL SAMPLES‐TO SPLIT, COMBINE, OR TREAT SEPARATELY
Authors: Drevs Robert A. , Durand Richard M. , Mattheiss T. H.
Published: June 2007

This paper provides a methodology for investigating whether different groups perceived as being similar can be treated as homogeneous and therefore can be effectively combined for Multiple Discriminant Analysis purposes. The consequences of combining heterogeneous groups are explored.
DETERMINING THE APPROPRIATE DISCOUNT RATES IN PURE CAPITAL RATIONING
Authors: Bradley Stephen P. , Frank Ronald S. , Frey Sherwood C.
Published: June 2007

This paper proposes an interpretation of the pure capital rationing problem as it is faced by many managers in decentralized firms in which budgets serve as the principal means of control. It is argued that the appropriate objective for situations such as these is the maximization of either undiscounted earnings over the planning horizon or total value of the investments at the horizon. When either objective function is used in conjunction with the frequently encountered linear programming models for the capital rationing problem, shadow prices result which give rise to discount rates that will reproduce the optimal solution using discounted cash flow as a criterion. These results are then used as a means for clarifying several confusing and misleading statements that have appeared in the literature.
A LABORATORY STUDY OF INDIVIDUAL SEARCH PATTERNS IN A DECISION‐MAKING SITUATION
Authors: Cecil Earl A. , Lundgren Earl F.
Published: June 2007

This study investigates the effects of time and probability constraints on the search process in a decision‐making situation. The setting was a behavioral laboratory in which subjects were asked to choose one art print from a selection of 260 prints. The prints were in sets of five for convenience in showing. In the nonconstraint condition, subjects were able to set their own pace in viewing prints and could obtain any print in the whole set that was desired. Under the constraint condition, the time and probability constraints were both operative. Under the time constraint, viewing additional sets required increasing amounts of time. Under the probability constraint, there was a constantly reducing probability—down to a minimum of ten percent—of obtaining an earlier print as more prints were viewed. In comparison to unconstrained subjects, constrained subjects viewed fewer prints and did more rechecking in total while the search was in process.
MULTI‐MACHINE, MULTI‐PRODUCT PRODUCTION SCHEDULING AND INVENTORY CONTROL
Authors: Dhavale Dileep G. , Aggarwal Sumer C.
Published: June 2007

This paper deals with a multi‐machine, multi‐product lot size determination and scheduling problem. The model developed here considers not only the usual inventory‐related operational cost, but also the costs that depend on under‐ or over‐utilization of available men and machines. It penalizes overtime or idle time at any facility. The solution minimizes the inventory and resource‐related costs and not just inventory costs. A heuristic is developed to determine the solution from the model and to modify it, as necessary, to obtain a conflict‐free, repetitive, and cyclic production schedule for an infinite horizon. Although this model is developed for a manufacturing situation, the words machine, job, and machine shop are used in a symbolic sense, and hence the model can be used in practice in a variety of circumstances.
COMPARATIVE PRODUCT TESTS IN THE CONSUMER DECISION PROCESS: CORRELATES OF USE AND IMPACT ON SATISFACTION *
Authors: Engledow Jack L. , Anderson Ronald D. , Becker Helmut
Published: June 2007

Information inputs are an important determinant of the quality of outcomes in the consumer decision process. This paper reports on an exploratory study that examines the perceived use of Consumer Reports product tests in a specific durable‐product purchase in a nationwide sample of Consumer Reports subscribers. Perceived use of Consumer Reports is found to be related to performance‐oriented shopping, but other situation‐related variables are less likely to be associated with use than the shopper's general confidence in the test reports as an information source. Perceived use of the test reports in this study is associated with higher satisfaction with the products purchased.
ANALYSIS OF A PH.D. PROGRAM VIA GERT MODELING AND SIMULATION
Authors: Taylor Bernard W. , Moore Laurence J.
Published: June 2007

This paper presents a model developed for the planning and control of a Ph.D. program in business administration at a major southeastern university. The technique employed was network simulation (GERT‐type) which was selected for its capability to incorporate the stochastic nature of the system into the model. Included in the model are all the sequential steps of the Ph.D. program, such as course work, written preliminary exams, oral exams, dissertation and oral defense, as well as the various probabilistic outcomes and feedback loops of the process. The simulation output yields statistical estimates on program duration and probabilities of various outcomes. The model and simulation results can be used by both university administrators and Ph.D. candidates for planning purposes. The model is flexible in that it can be altered to reflect the unique features of Ph.D. programs of most schools.
RESOURCE PLANNING FOR MULTIPLE PROJECTS *
Authors: Lee Sang M. , Park O. E. , Economides S. C.
Published: June 2007

This paper is concerned with the estimation of the resource requirements to service multiple projects that use many types of resources. It reports on a systematic procedure to determine the low cost levels of these resources, focusing on the two following characteristics: (1) the comparative cost of standard time to overtime in the utilization of these resources for the economical completion of the projects, and (2) the impact of highly expensive equipment in the determination of the economic levels of the manpower resources that combine with the equipment to form a crew. A numerical example is also presented to illustrate the method.

Resource planning is of particular interest in the area of multiproject scheduling, since most of the commonly utilized heuristic solution approaches focus on the allocation of a limited set of available resources. In the corporate strategic planning functions, resource planning is particularly important for capital investment, training and development, and procurement scheduling.
ADVERTISING AND VALUE MAXIMIZATION: AN INTEGRATIVE APPROACH *
Authors: Yawitz Jess B. , Connelly Francis J. , Marshall William J.
Published: June 2007

The model developed in this paper is interdisciplinary in that we incorporate the advertising decision into the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) for valuation of risky income streams. The advertising decision involves the purchase of media services whose effects on sales (profit) are hypothesized to vary with general economic activity. As in any asset expansion, the firm purchases an income distribution with a given expected value and covariance with the economy. By consulting the CAPM, we are able to obtain a value for the income distribution associated with the advertising expenditure. By failing to account for both risk and return, those previous studies which have examined the effect of advertising on profit or valuation are, at best, incomplete. We are able to demonstrate the inappropriateness of ranking alternative advertising strategies solely on the basis of expected income.
SOME CONCEPTUAL COMMENTS ON TRUST‐RELEVANT DECISION MAKING: A REACTION TO THE BONOMA AND JOHNSTON PAPER
Authors: Young Jerald W.
Published: June 2007

Three conceptual and methodological issues of the preceding paper by Bonoma and Johnston are identified and discussed. A theoretical integration of interpersonal trust and locus of control is made, and some necessary conditions for an interpersonal trust‐relevant decision‐making situation are pointed out. Implications for the design of future research into trust‐relevant decision making are drawn.
ON PERSONNEL BUDGETING FOR CONTINUOUS OPERATIONS (WITH EMPHASIS ON HOSPITALS)
Authors: Lowerre James M.
Published: June 2007

This paper develops an approach for determining staff size when Nj personnel are needed on weekday j, j= 1, 2,…,7. The method explicitly incorporates the fact that staff size will vary with both regular rest policy and fringe‐benefit days. The typical hospital case where N employees are needed weekdays and n on weekends is developed in detail.
APPLICABILITY OF AN OCCUPATIONAL GOAL‐EXPECTANCY MODEL IN PROFESSIONAL ACCOUNTING ORGANIZATIONS*
Authors: Dillard Jesse F.
Published: June 2007

A cognitive goal choice model incorporating goal and expectancy constructs is presented to describe and better understand the occupation‐position choice decision process. The sample consists of 136 public accountants employed by two large CPA firms. The model is tested using within‐subject analysis and a split‐sample validation procedure. The findings suggest that the model is useful in explaining and predicting professional accountants' goal choice behavior.
ON CONSUMER‐ VERSUS FIRM‐LEVEL ANALYSIS OF ADVERTISING EFFECTIVENESS: IMPLICATIONS FOR MODEL BUILDING*
Authors: Winer Russell S.
Published: June 2007

Issues relating to the construction of marketing models are discussed. These include determining the level of aggregation of model construction, specifying the structure of the model, and the aggregation level of data to be employed in estimating model parameters. These issues are addressed through specifying and estimating both consumer‐level and firm‐level models and comparing the results. An important conclusion is that inferences about consumer behavior should not be drawn from firm‐level models since aggregation bias may exist.
A DISCRETE‐IN‐TIME PROBABILISTIC INVENTORY MODEL FOR DETERIORATING ITEMS
Authors: Dave Upendra , Jaiswal M. C.
Published: June 2007

A probabilistic scheduling‐period inventory model continuous in units and discrete in time is developed for deteriorating items where deterioration is assumed to be a constant fraction of the on‐hand inventory. The model is developed under the conditions of instantaneous delivery and no shortages. An example followed by sensitivity analysis is given to illustrate the derived results.
PORTFOLIO MODELING IN MULTIPLE‐CRITERIA SITUATIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY: REJOINDER
Authors: Muhlemann Alan Paul , Lockett Alan Geoffrey
Published: June 2007

Harrington and Fischer [2] discuss some of the limitations of a model presented by Muhlemann, Lockett, and Gear [8] for the portfolio selection problem in multiple‐criteria situations under uncertainty. They go on to propose integer goal programming and simulation as an alternative solution procedure. The purpose of this note is to critically examine their proposal and to contrast the two approaches. It is shown that the problem is being viewed from different decision‐making standpoints.
Education and Development BIFURCATIONS IN DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS
Authors: Majthay Antal
Published: June 2007

The concept of bifurcation in a dynamical system is illustrated through several examples. The elementary catastrophes are equilibrium sets of specific kinds of dynamical systems. The framework of bifurcating dynamical systems is put forward as an alternative to catastrophe theory models. Dynamical systems models require explicit accounting of all their underlying hypotheses. They offer unambiguous answers in return. The fuzzy transition from hypotheses to results so characteristic of the catastrophe theory literature is absent. The method is illustrated using a stock‐market model.
AN APPLIED PROCEDURE FOR DETERMINING THE ECONOMIC LOT SIZES OF MULTIPLE PRODUCTS
Authors: Senju Shizuo , Fujita Seiichi
Published: June 2007

Marginal analysis is applied to solve the economic production lot‐size problem. Rather than duplicating past research efforts, this paper emphasizes how marginal analysis can be used to reduce the complexity of large problems and to provide a range of near‐optimal solutions. Problem complexity is reduced through a simple grouping procedure while the range of near‐optimal solutions is organized via a simple figure. Finally, the method of selecting from among the solutions under varying conditions is discussed.
USING LINEAR PROGRAMMING FOR PLANNING LIFE INSURANCE PURCHASES*
Authors: Schleef Harold J.
Published: June 2007

In this paper a linear programming model is developed to address problems that arise in estate planning and personal life insurance management. The objective is to maximize net present value resulting from the optimal combination of life insurance and self‐insurance, subject to a budget constraint in each period of a finite horizon. In addition, a death‐benefit requirement must be satisfied in each period. The model is sufficiently flexible to include both term and whole life (cash value) insurance, self‐insurance (alternative investment), policy loans, and buy back (cancellation) amounts in each period. By modifying the budgets and requirements, the model provides useful information related to interest‐adjusted cost and marginal rate of return which can then be used to compare different policies. Numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the technique.
SO, WHERE DO WE GO FROM HERE?
Authors: Dillard Jesse F.
Published: June 2007

This paper presents a reply to the preceding methodological note [6]. Additional comparative analyses are presented which at least partially answer some of the criticisms raised. The implications for future theory development and empirical field research are also discussed.
DUAL‐RESOURCE PARALLEL QUEUES WITH SERVER TRANSFER AND INFORMATION ACCESS DELAYS*
Authors: Gunther Richard E.
Published: June 2007

Dual‐resource constrained queuing systems contain fewer servers than service facilities. This study uses computer simulation to evaluate several server assignment procedures in a dual‐resource system. A field study serves as the basis for developing a model with two service facilities in parallel, a single server, and deterministic information access and transfer delays that can be applied to job shops, computer operating systems, and elevators. Several findings, useful in server assignment decision making, resulted from the study. If first‐come, first‐served sequencing is used, delaying server assignment at a facility until all jobs are completed reduces both the mean and the variance of job flow time. If shortest‐process‐time‐first sequencing is used, an assignment rule is tested that delays a server at a facility until a sufficiently short job is estimated to have arrived elsewhere. This rule performs best overall in terms of both the mean and variance of flow time. Methods to implement this decision rule easily are discussed.
ON THE SENSITIVITY OF BRAND‐CHOICE SIMULATIONS TO ATTRIBUTE IMPORTANCE WEIGHTS
Authors: Curry David J. , Louviere Jordan J. , Augustine Michael J.
Published: June 2007

This paper critically reviews the report by Green, DeSarbo, and Kedia “on the insensitivity of brand‐choice simulations to attribute importance weights”. The review suggests that results from two of their four weight distortion conditions should be viewed with suspicion and that their procedure for selecting brand scores biased the sensitivity analysis and inflated individual‐level hit rates. The most unfortunate problem is that their simulation‐experimental design precludes a global test of the main research issue. Results are presented from an alternative simulation approach that has the power to detect the sensitivity of brand shares to a wide range of conditions that affect the shape of attribute weight distributions. The results suggest that conclusions of Green, DeSarbo, and Kedia apply only to a limited domain and would not obtain in many likely market situations. Extensions to nonadditive decision structures are suggested and several unresolved issues are outlined.
A FACILITY LOCATION PROBLEM WITH DISTANCE‐DEPENDENT DEMAND
Authors: Berman Oded , Parkan Celik
Published: June 2007

This paper examines network systems where demand for the services of a facility originates at the nodes of the network and its magnitude depends on the shortest distance to a service‐providing facility. Service systems with such features include bank branches, fastfood outlets, and grocery stores. With the assumption that demand is a Poisson‐distributed random variable whose mean is an exponentially decreasing function of distance, possible locations based on two important performance measures are characterized: the expected value and the variance of the demand. Two procedures are proposed: one to find the locations with the minimum and maximum expected demand and the other to find the location(s) that provide a given level of expected demand. The procedures are illustrated by two examples.
ON THE USE OF VERBAL PROTOCOLS IN CONJOINT ANALYSIS STUDIES
Authors: Cattin Philippe
Published: June 2007

A recent study by Olshavsky and Acito helped gain insight into (a) the decision process used by respondents when asked to do a conjoint task, (b) the predictive validity of conjoint models compared to models derived from verbal protocols, and (c) the reasons for prediction errors. In this article, the author argues that the Olshavsky and Acito results do not lead one to believe that the compensatory conjoint models can be potentially more misleading than models that try to represent more accurately the underlying evaluation process with noncompensatory and compensatory rules. Hence, it does not seem necessary to try to identify noncompensatory rules in a conjoint study.
REPORTING OF MANAGEMENT FORECASTS: AN EIGENVECTOR MODEL FOR ELICITATION AND REVIEW OF FORECASTS
Authors: Jensen Robert E.
Published: June 2007

Increasingly, business firms will be disclosing management forecasts in financial reports to investors. Single estimates based on a consensus view (e.g., Delphi estimates) may be used. It seems logical, however, to consider methods that seek formally to derive internally consistent subjective views regarding the sensitivity of assumptions and interacting events on forecasts.

The major purpose of this paper is to extend micro‐level cross‐impact analysis to a macro‐level eigenvalue analysis approach that elicits views of the effects of assumptions and interaction events on entire scenarios. Both methods are illustrated and contrasted. They are complementary rather than alternative methods. In particular, each method offers some potential in the development of operational guidelines for elicitation and reporting of management forecasts. In addition, the eigenvalue analysis offers several key advantages that make it potentially useful in preparing entire scenario forecasts.
OPTIMAL ALLOCATION OF RECOVERABLE ITEMS*
Authors: Schaefer Margaret K.
Published: June 2007

Allocation of at most n recoverable items among m demand locations is considered. Items are assumed to be demanded singly and independently and are eventually returned to the demand location. If a stockout occurs, the demand is lost and a penalty corresponding to lost profit is assessed. The allocation that minimizes the sum of expected stockout costs plus holding costs is readily obtained. An example involving allocation of rental cars among outlets is solved in detail.
AN INVESTIGATION OF MOTIVATIONAL BIAS IN SUBJECTIVE PREDICTIVE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS*
Authors: Benson P. George , Nichols Mary Lippitt
Published: June 2007

In this paper the problem of conscious motivational bias in the assessment of subjective predictive probability distributions is explored. The primary purpose of this research is to discover how subjects express their bias. Results of an experiment are reported in which subjective distributions were assessed by subjects, first in the absence of a biasing incentive and then in the presence of an incentive to bias upward coupled with an incentive to be “credible.” In the biased task, subjects reported manipulating up to five characteristics of their distribution, such as location, shape, and dispersion. Furthermore, subjects reported using combinations of the characteristics strategically. Dominant strategies included shifting the mode upward and redistributing probability to the left, shifting the mode upward a small amount and redistributing probability to the right, and shifting the mode upward and tightening the distribution. The location of the mode was mentioned first by nearly all subjects, suggesting that they first locate their biased distribution and then manipulate other characteristics to express their bias, need for credibility, and other concerns.
DECISION FLEXIBILITY AND PERCEIVED INFORMATION VALUE*
Authors: Hilton Ronald W. , Swieringa Robert J.
Published: June 2007

This paper reports the results of an experiment that examined the effects of information evaluators' perceptions of decision flexibility as a determinant of information value. This study suggests that subjects fall into relatively distinct groups that are differentiated by the group members' perceptions of the directionality as well as the magnitude of the effect of decision flexibility on information value. Moreover, subjects' misperceptions of information value reflect individualistic models of information evaluation.
BARGAINING WITH SHARED INFORMATION*
Authors: Chatterjee Kalyan , Ulvila Jacob W.
Published: June 2007

This paper formulates and analyzes models of two‐party bargaining behavior where each side possesses private information about its preferences that is unavailable to the other. We examine the strategic behavior that bargainers might exhibit when disclosing information either to an arbitrator or to each other. Our results show that when bargaining is over one issue, it is relatively uncomplicated analytically to calculate the optimal strategy, but, despite this, even sophisticated bargainers tend to make wrong assumptions about the behavior of others and to use strategies that are far from optimal. When the bargaining encompasses several factors, computation of optimal strategies becomes very cumbersome and the use of an optimal strategy does not gain a bargainer much over what he could have achieved with truthful revelation. Thus, in theory, truthful revelation is not the best course of action to adopt for a bargainer interested in maximizing individual gain, but in practice the alternatives may involve mistaken assumptions about the behavior of others and may therefore turn out to be inferior to truthful revelation.
ON THE SOLUTION OF SPATIAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS*
Authors: Rowse John
Published: June 2007

Recent advances in mathematical programming methods and computing technology have the potential for overcoming the many formidable barriers to the widespread solution of nonlinear spatial models. In particular, the recent public availability of the software package MINOS/AUGMENTED has major implications for both policy and theoretical research involving spatial models. In this paper, mathematical programming formulations of two highly nonlinear spatial models are provided, model solutions presented, and associated computational experience discussed. In addition, related work is discussed briefly and suggestions are advanced concerning the potential role of the package in furthering the objectives of this related work.

Subject Areas: Mathematical Programming, Transportation, and Urban and Regional Planning.
MODELING MANAGERS' EFFORT‐LEVEL DECISIONS FOR A WITHIN‐PERSONS EXAMINATION OF EXPECTANCY THEORY IN A BUDGET SETTING
Authors: Harrell Adrian M. , Stahl Michael J.
Published: June 2007

Ronen and Livingstone [42] have proposed that expectancy theory can provide a unifying framework for accounting research aimed at the motivational impact of budgets on managers. Unfortunately, researchers attempting to use this approach have employed an inappropriate across‐persons methodology. This paper uses the decision modeling approach we recently developed [48] to provide a within‐persons examination of Vroom's force model in a budget setting. An examination of two hypotheses questions the belief expressed in the budget literature to the effect that the use of currently attainable cost standards results in a cost budget with unique motivating characteristics. Strengths of this research are the use of the within‐persons approach and the use of an innovative measure of motivational force.
PREFERENCE MAPPING OF PERCEIVED INFORMATION STRUCTURE: IMPLICATIONS FOR DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS DESIGN
Authors: Watkins Paul R.
Published: June 2007

In a recent issue of this journal, Watkins [13] presented an approach for discovery of decision‐maker perceptions of the complexity (dimensionality) of information items that might be supplied by a decision support system. Through use of multidimensional scaling and cluster analysis, relatively homogeneous groups of decision makers, sharing common perceptions of various information items, were formed. This prior research was referred to as a first step in suggesting that information reports could be tailored to groups of decision makers classified on the basis of common perceptions of information. The current research extends the prior study by evaluating decision maker preferences for information in a variety of decision‐making scenarios in relation to the previously identified perceptions of the information. Based on the results of the study, conclusions are made which suggest that the tailoring of information to groups of decision makers should be based on both perceptions and preferences for information. Even so, it is demonstrated that the decision tasks have an impact on the preferences for information which may affect the attempt to tailor information to groups of decision makers.
THE TRADE DISCOUNT DECISION: A MARKOV CHAIN APPROACH*
Authors: Wort Donald H. , Zumwalt J. Kenton
Published: June 2007

Economic theory indicates that higher returns are required from investments that have higher risk. Two major reasons for offering trade discounts are to stimulate sales and to speed up cash receipts. Both sales increases and the earlier receipt of cash impact the risk/return characteristics of a firm. This study uses a Markov chain model to demonstrate how alternative trade credit policies impact the risk and required returns of a firm. The amount of risk and return per credit sale is calculated, and the coefficient of variation is used as a risk/return measure per credit sale. The study concludes that trade discounts can have a favorable impact on the risk/return characteristics of a firm, even in the absence of increased sales volume. Other discount decision factors which are either directly or indirectly determined in this paper include: (1) the average number of periods for which an account is outstanding, (2) the probability of collection and bad‐debt losses over the average account period, (3) the average speed of payment, and (4) the average amount of cash tied up in accounts receivable.
PRODUCT STRUCTURE COMPLEXITY AND MULTILEVEL LOT SIZING USING ALTERNATIVE COSTING POLICIES*
Authors: Benton W. C. , Srivastava Rajesh
Published: June 2007

This research evaluates the effect of product structure complexity on the performance of several lot‐sizing procedures in a multilevel manufacturing environment. The experiment compares two different costing policies, full value added (FVA) and marginal value added (MVA), for calculating inventory holding cost. The major finding of the research is that product structure complexity has very little effect on the performance of various lot‐sizing procedures. A second finding is that when product structures with varying components per parent and stocking points for a particular end item are present, the MVA costing policy emerges as the policy of choice because it favors slightly the Silver‐Meal (SM)/least‐total‐cost (LTC) procedures over the Wagner‐Whitin (WW)/LTC procedures.
DUAL‐METRIC MEASUREMENT OF THE IMPACT OF COMPLEXITY ON DECISION QUALITY*
Authors: Enis Charles R.
Published: June 2007

Both sophisticated and unsophisticated subjects were provided either a simple or a complex cue set at random on which to base decisions. A dual‐metric approach that consisted of measuring interrater consistency and cross‐item variance for each subject category was used to compare the decision quality of the subjects. Although complexity and decision quality were inversely related, the sophisticated subjects performed relatively better using the complex cue set; the unsophisticated subjects performed better using the simple cue set. These findings support the notion that decision‐maker and task compatibility are important to the assessment of decision quality.
NEW PRODUCT SCREENING VIA THE INTENTION‐TO‐BUY SCALE*
Authors: Levy Haim , Ofir Chezy
Published: June 2007

Data obtained from the intention‐to‐buy scale often are used for early product screening. The authors discuss current procedures to evaluate these data and indicate the minor rote that risk assessment has played. Evaluation rules that incorporate the risk factor are presented, and their usefulness for product selection is discussed.
Applications and Implementation THE ALLOCATION OF TIME IN ACADEME: RENT‐SEEKING IMPLICATIONS
Authors: Stolen Justin D. , Gleason John M.
Published: June 2007

The allocation of time in academe is influenced by artificial constraints such as wage‐fund pools and quotas on promotion and tenure. These constraints affect the potential productivity of professors. An analysis of the time‐allocation process and of rent‐seeking implications for that process suggests various ways to shift supply curves to counteract the effects of these constraints.
Education CREATIVE THINKING AND INNOVATIVE EDUCATION IN THE DECISION SCIENCES
Authors: Evans James R.
Published: June 2007

Creative problem solving is seldom addressed directly in the decision sciences literature. The first half of this paper reviews current thinking about creativity and its educational importance. The remainder addresses creative problem‐solving processes and, in particular, the process developed by Parnes, Noller and Biondi [24] and Osborn [23]. This process has been integrated into an OR/MS problem‐solving course which is described. Conclusions and implications for decision sciences education and practice in general are discussed.
USING L2 ESTIMATION FOR L1 ESTIMATORS: AN APPLICATION TO THE SINGLE‐INDEX MODEL
Authors: Pari Robert , Chatterjee Sangit
Published: June 2007

The bootstrap method is used to compute the standard error of regression parameters when the data are non‐Gaussian distributed. Simulation results with L1 and L2 norms for various degrees of “non‐Gaussianess” are provided. The computationally efficient L2 norm, based on the bootstrap method, provides a good approximation to the L1 norm. The methodology is illustrated with daily security return data. The results show that decisions can be reversed when the ordinary least‐squares estimate of standard errors is used with non‐Gaussian data.
Notes and Communications “A DECISION THEORY EXAMPLE IN FOOTBALL”: A COMMENT*
Authors: Stoughton Neal M.
Published: June 2007

Janssen and Daniel analyzed the choice between a one‐ or a two‐point conversion for a particular game situation in college football. Their decision criteria was maximum expected utility based on a von Neumann‐Morgenstern utility function defined over the games outcomes. An alternative approach based on a stochastic dominance criterion is presented that does not rely on knowledge of the relative importance of tying vs. winning; rather, it relies on a notion of consistency in the sequential problem.
DESIGNING INSPECTION STRATEGIES FOR UNCERTAIN ENVIRONMENTS
Authors: Ballou Donald P. , Pazer Harold L.
Published: June 2007

This paper considers the problems of designing inspection strategies for production systems terms in the presence of environmental uncertainty. The framework for determining information priorities to support inspection system planning is presented in the contaxt of a generic production system that encompasses the characteristics of many real‐world serial production systems. The impact on the design decision of five key variables is considered: quality of producton processes, quality of inspection procedures, penalty cost for undetected defective units, relative cost of improving process vs. inspection, and shape of the cost functions for process and inspection enhancement. The framework for analysis involves varying factors over two or three orders of magnitude to determine optimal inspection strategies across a wide range of environments These results are used to compare design decisions made in the presence of environmental uncertainty using expected‐opportunity‐cost and minimization‐of‐maximum‐opportunity‐cost approaches. Design strategies are identified for situations ranging from complete lack of knowledge about the environment through increasing levels of information. Information‐gathering priorities are established, and the impact on the design decision of this additional information is assayed.
RULES FOR CHURCH PROMOTION DECISIONS
Authors: Carman James M.
Published: June 2007

This article presents and tests a model that extends our understanding of optimal marketing‐mix decision rules for nonprofit organizations (such as churches) that receive donation income, do not charge fixed prices for their services, and rely heavily on volunteer time as a resource for their operations. Such organizations are likely to employ an objective function of output maximization rather than profit maximization. This change in objective function leads to greater promotional spending than would be true of for‐profit organizations. The paper also highlights the complexities for optimization raised by the role of paid and volunteer staff in promotional activities.
MODIFIED STEPPING‐STONE METHOD AS A TEACHING AID FOR CAPACITATED TRANSPORTATION PROBLEMS
Authors: Shih Wei
Published: June 2007

This paper extends the standard stepping‐stone method to the case of capacitated transportation problems. The purpose is to offer an alternative to network‐oriented or simplex‐based methods (such as the out‐of‐kilter and upper‐bounding techniques) often used in handling the capacitated transportation problem but generally beyond the scope of introductory decision sciences courses. The proposed procedure is based on the simple stepping‐stone method and requires only a few modifications in the cost/assignment matrix and some alterations in the pivoting rules. As such, it is much easier to understand and apply than the above‐mentioned solution algorithms. It therefore can serve as an effective tool for teaching capacitated transportation problems. Two numerical examples illustrate applications of the proposed method, procedures for sensitivity analysis, and comparisons with linear programming.