bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A STUDY OF THE PERFORMANCE OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY ASSESSORS
Authors: Pickhardt Robert C. , Wallace John B.
Published: June 2007

Despite the key role that subjective probabilities play in decisions made under conditions of uncertainty, little is known about the ability of probability assessors in developing these estimates. A literature survey is followed by a review of results from a continuing series of experiments designed to investigate the external accuracy of subjectively assessed probability distributions. Initial findings confirm that probability assessments provided by untrained assessors are of questionable value in predicting the distribution of actual outcomes of uncertain events. Particular difficulty is encountered when subjects attempt to quantify the extremes of their subjective distributions. The impact of extended assessor training and hypotheses regarding the effects of variation in the assessor's information level and the complexity of the assessment task are explored. Implications for applied decision making are drawn, and directions for future investigations are suggested.
A PRACTICAL APPROACH TO THE LARGE‐SCALE FOREST SCHEDULING PROBLEM*
Authors: Caswell W. M. , Rao A.
Published: June 2007

A large‐scale forest cutting schedule problem involving 1166 forest units to be cut over a 24–year planning period is discussed. The problem is formulated as a generalized version of the basic transportation problem. The conversion procedure for such a problem to the standard transportation format is outlined. The proposed approach is then compared with a linear programming decomposition approach on the basis of operating results obtained and computer time required by each approach. It is shown that this new approach will solve a real world problem about 40 times faster than the usual linear programming decomposition approach.
THE DEPENDENCE OF THE EFFECTS OF LEARNING MODE ON CONCOMITANT FACTORS*
Authors: Swinth Robert L.
Published: June 2007

Despite the number of studies comparing the programmed instruction (PI) and text teaching methods, the results to date have been inconclusive. In this paper it is hypothesized that the effects of these two modes of learning on performance are dependent on differences in people and in the material to be learned. In an experiment on 48 subjects it was found that both mode of learning and sex affected performance, but the effect of sex differed for the two modes of learning. Women performed better in the PI mode and men performed better in the text mode. Also, performance on definitional material was dependent on the aptitude of the learner and on inferential material was dependent on the prior knowledge of the learner.
METHODS FOR QUANTIFYING SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITIES AND MULTI‐ATTRIBUTE UTILITIES*†
Authors: Huber George P.
Published: June 2007

In many situations where normative decision‐aiding techniques could be usefully applied, historical data are inadequate for estimating the required outcome probabilities, and economic methodologies are inadequate for estimating the aggregate utility derived from the several outcome attributes. In such cases it is often useful to obtain the required estimates in the form of expert judgments, i.e. to obtain subjective probabilities and multi‐attribute utilities. Similarly, in many situations where behavioral decision processes are to be studied, it is necessary to scale the expectations and perceived values of the decision makers.

This article describes the methods for eliciting subjective probabilities and multi‐attribute utilities whose usefulness has been empirically studied and reported in the research literature. It also contains summary guidelines concerning the elicitation and use of such judgments.
PORTFOLIOS OF RISKY PROJECTS
Authors: Cozzolino John M.
Published: June 2007

The problem of selecting a portfolio from a set of independent risky business ventures is formulated in terms of maximization of the risk‐adjusted (certainty‐equivalent) profit of the portfolio, based upon the exponential utility function. Objects of investment include fractional participation (risk sharing) in projects with other firms, where costs and returns are shared in the same proportion. The method assumes that project costs are certain. Project revenues are uncertain, and any probability function for revenue can be used.
A NORMATIVE RESOURCE TRANSFER MODEL
Authors: Lusk Edward J.
Published: June 2007

In this paper, the author suggests a methodology for facilitating interactive decision making in a decentralized organization by providing information which may result in the transfer of divisional resources. The resource‐transfer information is generated at the beginning of the planning period so that the organization's production control and evaluation systems may be formalized.
EXPERIMENTAL DETERMINATION OF COMMUNITY PREFERENCES FOR WATER QUALITY—COST ALTERNATIVES*
Authors: Whitmore G.A. , Cavadias G.S.
Published: June 2007

This paper describes the theoretical background, methodology, and results of a small water‐pollution study conducted in a suburban Canadian community. In the study, preferences of heads of households were determined for different levels of environmental water quality and cost to the household of achieving this quality. Inferences are drawn from the preference data about the underlying individual utility functions. Implications of the study methodology and results for social decision making are discussed.
NATURE OF PROBLEM ILL‐STRUCTUREDNESS: IMPLICATIONS FOR PROBLEM FORMULATION AND SOLUTION
Authors: Taylor Ronald N.
Published: June 2007

The distinction between ill‐structured and well‐structured decision problems is extended in this paper to include the degree of familiarity that a decision maker has with the initial state of the problem, its desired state, and appropriate transformations for resolving the problem. It is shown that problem ill‐structuredness may result from inadequate information regarding any of these components and that the nature of problem ill‐structuredness has important implications for problem formulation and solution. A decision tree is presented which represents strategies for either reformulating primary problems of each class of ill‐structuredness to a more readily solved form, or solving the problem as initially formulated.
SESAME STREET FOR DECISION SCIENCES
Authors: Hesse Rick
Published: June 2007

In Part I, several problems confronting learning and teaching in Decision Sciences are examined and possible solutions presented. Students dislike and fear mathematics, treat it as a foreign language (a dead one at that), and are subjected to archaic teaching methods. Teachers suffer from poor training, incongruent goals, and inadequate models. As the popularity of the Decision Sciences dwindles, teaching becomes even more critical in our profession.

In Part II, three designs for teaching operations research or statistics with organizational behavior are presented. These have all been implemented during the last three years. These designs attempt to take advantage of principles learned in organizational behavior to enhance the learning situation in the quantitative courses in decision sciences.
CONCEPTS, THEORY, AND TECHNIQUES
Authors: Fielitz Bruce D. , Myers Buddy L.
Published: June 2007

The beta distribution is becoming more widely used in business applications and in economic model‐building. A simple way to estimate the parameters of the univariate distribution and the general multivariate distribution would be useful but there appears to be no simple way of accomplishing this task. For example, the method of maximum likelihood does not yield tractable results.

The method of moments presented in this paper is a practical way to obtain parameter estimates for the beta distribution. Explicit estimators are derived for the univariate and bivariate case and estimators are then inferred for the n‐variate case. Empirical tests suggest that the method of moments may be used to establish useful estimates for these parameters. Also, estimates obtained by the method of moments may be used to develop bounds on the parameters so that computational techniques can be utilized with other estimation methods possessing more desirable properties.
THE COEFFICIENT OF CONCORDANCE AND THE Q‐SORT TECHNIQUE
Authors: Summers George W.
Published: June 2007

Under the assumption of random assignment of scores, Kendall's coefficient of concordance and its sampling distribution are applied to rectangular Q‐sorts. F, normal, and chi square approximations and their limits of application are described.
A SIMULATION OF INTERACTIVE MAINTENANCE DECISIONS
Authors: Hardy S. T. , Krajewski L. J.
Published: June 2007

In this day of automation, effective maintenance decisions are a legitimate concern. This paper broadens the traditional concept of maintenance to include any policies which tend to reduce the frequency or severity of failures. A simulation model is used to demonstrate the inter‐relatedness of multiple maintenance policies for a truck depot. It is demonstrated that the proper selection of a maintenance policy set should consider the variability of the system outputs due to the daily dynamics, as well as the transient behavior of the system. It is also shown that the choice of an appropriate maintenance policy should recognize the distribution of total annual costs and should not base the analysis solely upon average total annual costs.
ON EXTENSIONS OF PROBABILISTIC PROFIT BUDGETS
Authors: Hayya Jack C. , Copeland Ronald M. , Chan K. Hung
Published: June 2007

Previous work on probabilistic profit budgets has dealt with the construction of probability intervals for the items in the planning and control statements (e.g., direct costs, marginal contributions, profits, etc.). This paper expands that work by demonstrating the potential benefits for managerial accounting in constructing confidence limits for the mean, the standard deviation, and the coefficient of variation. The adequacy of the confidence interval for any account balance depends on the credibility of the sample standard deviation, s, as an estimate of the population standard deviation, σ. The confidence interval of the standard deviation assesses, in a sense, the precision of the point estimate, s. Furthermore, it takes on a meaning similar to risk measures discussed in the finance literature. Given confidence intervals for the mean and standard deviation, one can construct corresponding bands for the coefficient of variation. These bands give insight into the goodness of the accounting system and the stability of the budgetary model.
SUBJECTIVE EVALUATIONS FOR PRODUCT DESIGN DECISIONS
Authors: Rao Vithala R. , Soutar Geoffrey N.
Published: June 2007

This paper presents a simple methodology to enable a firm to incorporate consumers' subjective evaluations early into the concept screening stage of a new product introduction process. The methodology involves eliciting ranked preference judgments toward a set of alternative product concepts, each described as a profile of attributes and derived from an interval‐scaled utility score using Thurstone's comparative judgment model. The derived utility scores are then decomposed into simple effects attributable to each of the attributes, thus yielding functional representations of consumer preferences. Mathematical models are developed to utilize the functions to determine the best concept. Empirical illustrations are provided for application of the methodology.
REDUCING ERROR IN QUESTION AND SCALE DESIGN: A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK*
Authors: Hulbert James , Lehmann Donald R.
Published: June 2007

The authors describe a systematic scheme for viewing the relationship between design variables and measurement error in construction of closed‐end questions. Applications to teaching and research are discussed.
SIMULATION AND THE CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL: A COMMENT*
Authors: Bacon Peter W. , Haessler Robert W.
Published: June 2007

This paper challenges Lewellen and Long's contention that a Hertz‐type simulation generates irrelevant data for the evaluation of capital expenditure opportunities. The conclusion is reached that an estimate of an asset's “own risk” may be a vital first step in estimating its covariance properties with the market index. A method of incorporating the information generated by simulation into the capital asset pricing model is also provided.
PITFALLS OF ROUNDING IN DISCRETE MANAGEMENT DECISION PROBLEMS
Authors: Glover Fred , Sommer David C.
Published: June 2007

A number of articles on managerial decision making have addressed the issue of whether or not to round a fractional solution to obtain a solution for a problem involving discrete alternatives. (An example is the problem in which the decision maker must select exactly one of several investment alternatives, but attaches no meaning to selecting two‐thirds of one alternative and one‐third of another.) Those articles which suggest that rounding can lead to undesirable answers are seemingly supported by the numerous “textbook examples” that purport to illustrate the dangers of rounding. However, the standard examples in which rounding fails to give a workable solution involve only a few rounding possibilities (usually two or four) and do not come from real world applications. Hence, it is questionable whether they provide any insight about what is likely to occur in a practical setting. This note fills a gap in previous discussions of rounding by providing two easily understood examples that dramatically portray the difficulties that rounding can encounter. The first example belongs to an important class of practical problems. We illustrate that rounding fails not only for this example, but also fails for all problems in its class. The second example is a unique “showcase” problem which can be summarized by a 5 times 5 cost matrix. This problem contains more than a million rounding alternatives, all of them infeasible! Following these examples, we present a “rounding paradox” and we show that its resolution gives analytical support to the conclusion that rounding will produce grave difficulties in a wide variety of practical situations.
SIMPLE MODELS FOR MONITORING NEW PRODUCT PERFORMANCE
Authors: Ayal Igal
Published: June 2007

Several studies have shown that consumers trying a new brand of frequently purchased consumer goods behave differently from repeat buyers. The “customer mix” for a new brand changes over time. Early in a new brand's life, most of the buyers are triers, while later in its life, a significant portion of the buyers are repeaters. The study presented here tests the hypothesis that an aggregate sales forecast, “averaging” the behaviors of triers and repeaters, would be outperformed by a model that treats them separately.

A new product model, giving separate consideration to triers and repeaters, is developed. This model is tested on predictive ability against a widely used single‐equation aggregate model. Consumer panel purchase diaries and data on advertising in measured media, covering a period of 42 months following introduction of a major brand of cold tablets, serve as the proving grounds. Data for the early part of this period serve as the data base for both models, while data for the rest of the period serve to test the predictive ability of both models. The disaggregate model is shown to perform significantly better than the aggregate model in terms of predictive accuracy. It also offers several other advantages in use as a decision aid, both for GO‐NO decisions and for marketing mix decisions.

Finally, several problems in the implementation of the proposed model and implications for research strategy are discussed.
A DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION MODEL FOR PLANNING IN A MULTI‐PRODUCT ENVIRONMENT
Authors: Ricketts Donald E. , Zimmer Robert K.
Published: June 2007

This paper describes an extension of the product mix problem and explicitly considers situations where demand can fluctuate over time. The additional decision variables and constraints that must be considered are described, and a revised objective function is discussed. The solution to the proposed linear programming formulation is compared to the traditional simulation and illustrates the potential for increased profits.
SOCIO‐PSYCHOLOGICAL DETERMINANTS OF INFANT IMMUNIZATION
Authors: Markland Robert E. , Durand Douglas E.
Published: June 2007

This paper applies factor analysis and discriminant analysis to a large body of socio‐psychological data dealing with infant immunization. The researchers first apply factor analysis with orthogonal varimax rotation to the set of socio‐psychological variables in order to reduce their numbers without a significant loss of information. They then use derived rotated factors and their associated variables to structure immunization likelihood prediction functions, using linear discriminant analysis. These discriminant functions are shown to have strong predictive ability, thus enabling health officials to identify infants not likely to receive immunization. Furthermore, the analytical findings suggest ways of structuring more effective media campaigns directed towards improving the aggregate level of infant immunization.
THE APPLICATION OF A DYNAMIC FORECASTING MODEL WITH INVENTORY CONTROL PROPERTIES
Authors: Buffa Frank P.
Published: June 2007

This article summarizes the application of a forecasting model. Forecasts are made of monthly sales of products which do not change in style on an annual basis. The model is an exponential smoothing model. Adjustments of the parameters of the model are made whenever the average forecast error over the previous four periods is too large to be explained solely by unassignable causes. The efficiency gained in using the model is measured by the ratio of the standard deviation of the forecast errors to the standard deviation of sales. If this ratio is less than one, then the safety stock level that is carried for a given product can be reduced if sales are forecasted with the model and the standard deviation of the forecast errors is used to determine the safety stock level. The net effect is the reduction in the cost of carrying safety stocks. The results of the proposed model are also compared to a similar set of results generated from a basic, exponential model.
THE GENERALIZED INVERSE, WITH NONLINEAR REGRESSION AND MATHEMATICAL PROGRAMMING APPLICATIONS
Authors: Decell Henry P. , McHenry Elric N.
Published: June 2007

This paper is a tutorial exposition on the generalized inverse of a matrix with typical applications to regression analysis and mathematical programming. The exposition contains examples exhibiting geometrical motivation and related facts useful in application of the generalized inverse. Some proofs are given to indicate a few of the theoretical aspects of the generalized inverse.
MOTIVATION AND MANAGEMENT CONTROL SYSTEMS
Authors: Livingstone J. Leslie , Ronen Joshua
Published: June 2007

The importance of motivation in the managerial control process has been well noted in the accounting literature. However, despite its emphasis on motivation, the accounting literature says little about the specific relationships between motivation and accounting control systems.

This paper will present an explicit, systematic statement of these relationships by means of a detailed comparison and synthesis of two previously unrelated models. One is a conventional accounting model of control, and the other is a comprehensive behavioral model of motivation. Our aim is to integrate behavioral concepts with accounting applications in order to work towards solutions of important problems involving motivation and management control systems.
THE BIAS OF COST CONTROL CHARTS TOWARD TYPE II ERRORS
Authors: Meddaugh E. James
Published: June 2007

Application of control charts has significantly improved process control by explicitly recognizing uncontrollable variation in the process. A dangerous misapplication of the technique involves the use of control charts with data produced by accounting systems. This paper points out the weaknesses inherent in using aggregated accounting data for inferences about cost control.
INVENTORY MANAGEMENT AND CAPITAL BUDGETING: A PEDAGOGICAL NOTE
Authors: Thompson Howard E.
Published: June 2007

This paper shows, through an alternative development of the lot size model, how the methods of capital budgeting can be logically applied to the determination of optimal inventory levels. There is no reason why inventory management needs be treated any differently than the management of fixed assets. The rule that the stock of fixed assets should be expanded until the marginal rate of return equals the marginal cost of capital results from maximizing the present value of profits as a function of the investment level. In a like manner, the “square root” formula from inventory theory results from maximizing the present value of profits as a function of the investment in inventory.

In addition, formulating the inventory problem as a capital budgeting problem has advantages for incorporating deterioration, obsolescence, and other costs into the model in a more logical and less intuitive way.
TEACHING THE INDEPENDENCE OF X AND S2 IN APPLIED STATISTICS*
Authors: Kymn Kern O.
Published: June 2007

In this note, the independence of X and S2 is proved without the prerequisite knowledge of differential calculus. The purpose is to compensate for the lack of a text in applied statistics that proves the independence of such statistics.
DECISION MAKING PROCESSES: USING DISCRIMINATION NETS FOR SECURITY SELECTION
Authors: Swinth Robert L. , Gaumnitz Jack E. , Rodriguez Carlos
Published: June 2007

This paper examines the judgmental processes of individuals involved in stock selection through the use of discrimination nets. Research has shown that there is no incompatibility in the so‐called random walk model and the fundamentalist or intrinsic approach. Doing systematically better than the average investor implies that the superior investor has a superior way of evaluating existing information. An improved market success depends in part on an increased understanding of investors decisionmaking processes. Thus, if a superior investor's judgmental processes can be demonstrated and readily modeled, then, the next step would be to compare these decision processes with those of the average investors and note differences. The results of this study showed that the decision‐making processes of individuals not only can be adequately programmed, but that the decision process is rather stable for a given investor. The paper also shows, however, that while the model accurately predicted accept or reject decisions, in most cases it was limited in its ability to rank order securities from the set of accepted investments.
THE EFFECTS OF INCOME TAXES ON LINEAR PROGRAMMING MODELS
Authors: Sharp J. Franklin
Published: June 2007

For linear programming models the effects of income taxes on the optimal activity levels and the optimal values of the dual variables are considered. Neither a fixed percentage tax nor a progressive tax, based on the net pretax contribution, changes the optimal activity levels. However, the optimal dual variables are changed in value, proportional to the highest tax rate actually in effect.
OPTIMAL DESIGN OF MULTI‐PRODUCT MULTI‐ECHELON INVENTORY SYSTEMS*
Authors: Pinkus Charles E.
Published: June 2007

Large scale inventory distribution systems typically comprise a hierarchy of retail stores and warehouses. This paper presents a model for finding the optimal design of such systems. Given the maximum number of facilities under consideration and their locations, the problem is to determine which facilities to include in the system and which products to stock at each in order to minimize the cost of the system. Demand for the products may be deterministic or stochastic. To use the model it is necessary to know the optimal inventory policies for the multi‐echelon systems under consideration; however, an important feature of this work is that any multi‐echelon model may be used in tandem with this design model. Included is an example to illustrate the model and the two points which are the basis for its formulation: first, there is generally no single design which is best for all products; second, the design which is optimal for a given product is not necessarily the best design to use for that product when trying to minimize the cost of the entire system.
AN ANALYSIS OF BEHAVIOR AND PERFORMANCE IN THE FOOD RETAILING INDUSTRY USING EXPERIMENTAL BUSINESS GAMING
Authors: Jones Larry D. , Babb Emerson M.
Published: June 2007

This research tested hypotheses concerning the effects of organizational affiliation, differences among managers nested within organizational affiliation, degree of price competition and selected demographic and psychological traits of managers on economic behavior and performance. Experimental gaming in a behavioral science laboratory was used with a group of 60 subjects who were managers of Indiana supermarkets. The results support the influence of economic factors on the behavior and performance of managers. Degree of price competition imposed by the researchers significantly affected pricing decisions. At the same time, factors not usually considered in the static theory of the firm, such as organizational affiliation, had a significant influence on behavior and performance. While psychological and demographic traits generally did a poor job of explaining manager behavior, their effect may have been masked by the main treatments to which subjects were exposed. Realism in the experiment was not as high as expected, but the approach used was judged to be superior to alternative approaches.
DYNAMIC MODELS OF BOND REFUNDING*
Authors: Dyckman Thomas R. , Thomas L. Joseph , Magee Robert P.
Published: June 2007

Dynamic programming models of bond refunding have been given by Weingartner [14], Kalymon [8] and Elton and Gruber [4]. This paper gives a formulation of this problem that lends itself to extensions including the term structure of interest rates, delayed‐call provisions, and “rolling over” the outstanding debt. Finally, the cost of computation is examined, along with some examples.
BOND YIELDS: TRENDS OR RANDOM WALKS?*
Authors: Rogalski Richard J.
Published: June 2007

A considerable amount of evidence has been presented during recent years to demonstrate that in highly competitive and organized markets price changes will be close to random [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7]. Random Walk theorists usually start from the premise of an “efficient” market. An “efficient” market is defined as a market in which there are large numbers of rational profit‐maximizers actively competing with each other to predict future market values and in which important current information is available to all participants [4].
STRATEGIES FOR SOLVING ECONOMIC PROBLEMS INVOLVING PERMUTATIONS
Authors: Trippi Robert R.
Published: June 2007

A number of common economic problems can be reduced to a search for a permutation which minimizes some function. Analytic solutions are available for unconstrained problems of this nature when certain conditions are satisfied. This article outlines a simple tree‐search strategy for solving ordering problems in which some permutations are excluded due to explicit constraints.
A STUDY OF HOW TAX POLICY IS MADE: ADVERTISING TAX, IOWA
Authors: Uhl Kenneth P.
Published: June 2007

Within a two year period, a state government enacted and repealed a tax on advertising service. These two closely related decisions provide a somewhat unique setting to observe if there is a common set of propositions that helps explain both decision processes. The tax enactment scenario serves to provide a set of empirical propositions about the decision process. The second scenario is treated as a modified replication to partially test the reliability of these propositions.
LINEAR VS. NON–LINEAR MODELS OF THE FORMATION OF AFFECTIVE REACTIONS: THE CASE OF JOB ENLARGEMENT
Authors: Brief Arthur P. , Wallace Marc J. , Aldag Ramon J.
Published: June 2007

Numerous researchers have now considered the impact of task characteristics on employee responses. However, relatively little is known about how information regarding individual task dimensions is processed to arrive at an overall judgment. Most studies simply consider the role of individual job characteristics or arbitarily apply a particular combinatory model. In the rare instances where alternative models have been simultaneously considered, there has been some apparent confusion regarding the meaning of models and/or interpretation of findings.

The current study explored alternative combinatory models of human evaluative judgments. Data on task dimensions and employee affective responses were collected from subjects in two samples, one in a manufacturing firm and one in a Division of Corrections. Task dimension scores were combined by use of compensatory, conjunctive, and disjunctive models. Multiple regression was used to examine relationships between resultant scores and various affective response indices.

All three models exhibited generally significant predictive ability. The linear compensatory model was found to be as powerful a predictor of evaluative judgments as were non‐linear alternatives. Implications of findings are presented.
IMPROVING THE MEAN‐VARIANCE CRITERION USING STOCHASTIC DOMINANCE
Authors: LaCava Gerald J.
Published: June 2007

The increased importance of the nonnormal stable Paretian distributions necessitates the development of an investment criterion which does not depend upon the mean and variance. This paper develops a criterion based upon the location and scale parameters of a probability distribution. The rationale of the criterion is established using stochastic dominance orderings of probability distributions. The paper also presents estimators for the location and scale parameters.
REGRESSION METHODOLOGY WITH GROSS OBSERVATION ERRORS IN THE EXPLANATORY VARIABLES***
Authors: Brecht H. David
Published: June 2007

The robustness of linear programming regression estimators is examined where the disturbance terms are normally distributed and there are observation errors in the explanatory variables. These errors are occasional gross biases between one set of observations and another. The simulation of short series data offers preliminary evidence that when these biases have a non‐zero mean, MSAE estimation is more robust than least squares.
USING DUMMY VARIABLES TO CHECK FOR ROUNDING ERROR IN COMPUTERIZED REGRESSION PROGRAMS*
Authors: Mullet Gary M. , Morgan David L.
Published: June 2007

After a brief review of the role of dummy variables in regression analysis and the current state‐of‐the art in rounding/truncation error detection in computerized least squares programs, this paper presents a theorem that can be used to detect this type of error whenever an analyst is running a regression program that has one (or more) dummy variables as independent variables.
THE IMPACT OF ALTERNATE DECISION TECHNIQUES ON USER BEHAVIOR
Authors: Robey Daniel
Published: June 2007

The quantitative disciplines have focused their efforts primarily upon more complete and efficient methods for analyzing decision problems. Almost totally neglected in these efforts is the interplay between a decision technique and its ultimate user. This interface is of crucial importance to the continued success of the decision sciences in organizations. Data are presented to support the contention that decision techniques and their resultant impact on job content interact with psychological variables to cause variation in user satisfaction and performance. These results are similar to the effects hypothesized to occur at blue collar levels in organizations.
ON FINDING AN INITIAL SOLUTION FOR THE DUAL SIMPLEX ALGORITHM
Authors: Steinberg David I.
Published: June 2007

Torrance [4] has proposed a “new” approach to finding an initial solution of a linear programming problem for use in conjunction with the dual simplex algorithm. The purpose of this note is to comment on two aspects of that paper. Firstly, Torrance's method is not new at all, but was proposed in 1958 by Wagner. Secondly, the method can be implemented much more efficiently than Torrance suggests.
THE APPLICABILITY OF THE MAXI–MIN PRINCIPLE TO PORTFOLIO SELECTION IN TERMS OF MEANS AND VARIANCES OF UNKNOWN DISTRIBUTIONS
Authors: Mantell E. H.
Published: June 2007

This paper establishes two propositions which allow a risk‐a verse decision maker to apply a maxi‐min strategy in his portfolio selection. The strategy consists of selecting a portfolio in which the lower bound of the expected utility is maximized. The propositions have their greatest applicability in situations in which the investor knows the means and variances of the portfolio returns, but has no other knowledge relating to the probability distributions governing the rates of return.
SIMULATION OF INFORMATION CHOICE
Authors: Fellingham John C. , Mock Theodore J. , Vasarhelyi Miklos A.
Published: June 2007

Beginning with the information economics framework and a multi‐period decision model [15], this paper considers the use of computer simulation methods within an information system choice environment. Actual decision behavior is replaced by optimal decision rules, and simulation is used to evaluate the effects of parameter changes in the environmental model. Simulation is shown to be functional (1) in estimating the value of alternative information structures within a fifteen period decision model and (2) in providing sensitivity and statistical data which would be useful both for different decision maker utility functions and for a variety of information system design questions.
AGGREGATING EXPERT OPINION IN DECISION‐MAKING
Authors: Willis Raymond E.
Published: June 2007

In using nominal groups for decision making, it is necessary to use some mechanical procedure for combining the evaluations. A simulation model is used to compare procedures for the case where a nominal group of m evaluators must select the best of n alternatives and where the evaluations are subject to random errors. Criteria are the probability of making a correct selection and the relative quality of the choice.
MULTIPLE REGRESSION ANALYSIS APPLIED TO RESIDENTIAL PROPERTIES
Authors: Gloudemans Robert J. , Miller Dennis W.
Published: June 2007

An interesting and promising innovation in the assessment of property for tax purposes is the application of multiple regression analysis. Sales prices are regressed on various housing characteristics, and models developed from sold properties are used to generate value estimates for unsold properties. Two important issues relating to the development of such models are (1) the extent to which real estate markets are stable in terms of structural relationships over time, and (2) the extent to which sales prices reflect actual market values. The first issue is important because it affects how current sales must be before they can be used in model development, as well as the amount of information the assessor must collect and maintain on properties. The second issue is important because it concerns the amount of measurement error in the models and the extent to which the assessor/analyst can unambiguously interpret residual variance. These issues are investigated by comparing regression models developed from a sample of properties in Eugene, Oregon, which sold in each of two well separated time periods.
A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR ANALYSIS OF VARIATIONS IN AIR POLLUTION LEVELS
Authors: Anthony Ted F. , Taylor Bernard W.
Published: June 2007

Examination of environmental data seems to suggest that variations in air pollution levels from one point in time to another tend to follow some form of observable pattern. In this article, the authors explore an approach to observing, describing and analyzing these variations. They develop a model which is essentially a Markov framework and use it to suggest a number of interesting questions and to facilitate their solution. In this demonstration, the focus is on a single component of air pollution, suspended particulate matter. For implementation, a model would need to incorporate other elements of the pollution mix. As the composition of air pollution differs from one air shed to another, so will the parameters of the model.
THE DOLLARS AND SENSE OF SIMULATION
Authors: Godin Victor B.
Published: June 2007

This paper deals with the economics of computer simulation applied to problems in the operations management/industrial engineering area. First, the material in the literature dealing with the economics of simulation is summarized. However, the amount of information available on the economics of simulation is very small. A number of hypotheses are presented for this paucity of material. Since many managers operate in an environment in which costs and benefits are relevant to their decision‐making process, the lack of data on the economics of simulation may be a barrier to the utilization of the technique. In an attempt to improve this situation, a framework for the collection and specification of the economics of simulation modeling projects is proposed as a method of urging management scientists to begin to collect and publish data on the economics of simulation projects.
UNCERTAINTY RESOLUTION AND MULTI‐PERIOD INVESTMENT DECISIONS
Authors: Percival John , Westerfield Randolph
Published: June 2007

It is demonstrated in this paper that early uncertainty resolution is preferred to delayed uncertainty resolution when comparing sets of uncertain cash flow sequences in an N‐period setting. The implicit and often unwarranted assumptions regarding uncertainty resolution which are made in the three widely used methods in capital budgeting problems are demonstrated. Finally, it is demonstrated that the generally accepted procedure for measuring uncertainty resolution is restrictive in its underlying assumptions.
CREDIT‐SCORING MODELS AND THE CUT‐OFF POINT—A SIMPLIFICATION
Authors: Beranek William , Taylor Walton
Published: June 2007

The article presents a simple method for establishing the optimal cut‐off point on a credit‐scoring index under a variety of conditions. A procedure for choosing an index from several candidates is also proposed, and the use of credit information in such an index is discussed.
CORRECTING FOR THE INHERENT BIAS IN THE AVERAGE BIDDER APPROACH TO COMPETITIVE BID DEVELOPMENT
Authors: Kottas John F.
Published: June 2007

A key step in contract bid development is estimating the probabilities of winning with bids of various profit potentials. One of the most common approaches to estimating these probabilities, the average bidder approach, has an inherent bias which causes it to almost always over‐estimate the actual chances of winning. This note explores the nature of this error and suggests a method to compensate for it.
FIXED SUM LOSSES IN OPERATIONAL FORECASTING
Authors: Willis Raymond E.
Published: June 2007

In operational applications, forecasts are normally adjusted by applying safety factors to allow for asymmetry in the underlying loss function. This paper considers an extension of the often used linear loss function to situations in which an error can also result in a fixed sum loss.
SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS WITH INTERACTION EFFECTS
Authors: Bentz William F. , Sherr Lawrence A. , Miller Robert E.
Published: June 2007

The purpose of this paper is to extend the sensitivity analysis methodology as it applies to linear programming. The methodology developed herein is concerned with those changes in a technological coefficient that cause simultaneous changes in the relevant cost coefficients of the objective function. By proceeding from the definitions of feasibility and optimality, the authors develop formulas for determining bounds on the extent to which a technological coefficient, which has a predetermined effect on the corresponding cost coefficient, can vary without changing the optimal set of activities. After the formulas are developed, their use is demonstrated on a product‐mix problem. This technique is of interest because changes in the rate at which an input is utilized can be expected to change the cost per unit of a resulting product. This interdependence should be recognized whenever a sensitivity analysis is performed on a technological coefficient of either a cost minimization or a contribution margin maximization problem.
ADVERTISING EXPENDITURE TRAJECTORIES: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY FOR FILTER CIGARETTES 1953–1965
Authors: Turner Ronald E. , Wiginton John C.
Published: June 2007

In an advertising strategy, it is preferable to optimize a sequence of periodic decisions, rather than optimizing each period's decision separately. Thus, a dynamic technique such as optimal control, which is used in this study, should be employed. Necessary conditions, as inferred from a parsimonious advertising model, are tested using data from the tobacco industry. Parameter estimation involves the use of non‐linear regression. The estimates permit trajectories of optimal advertising expenditures and optimal market shares to be constructed for filter cigarettes. When compared with the actual trajectories, the optimizing trajectories exhibit a striking correspondence to reality. Therefore, interesting results can be obtained using a simple model, provided the optimizing method takes into account the dynamic nature of managerial decision‐making and provided powerful methods for estimating model parameters are used.
A DECISION ANALYSIS APPROACH TO BUSINESS STATISTICS
Authors: Brabb George J. , Livingston E. Jeffery
Published: June 2007

The general area of business statistics includes the coverage of three distinct subject areas: descriptive statistics, classical inference, and the more recently developed Bayesian decision procedures. Attempts at teaching these subjects has often produced confusion and a lack of confidence in statistical tools for many students. This article describes a unique way of teaching and presenting these three areas so that a student is given a framework for organizing and applying the different subject areas. The vehicle used to gain this framework is a simple decision model in which the various stages of the model provide excellent vantage points for introducing statistical tools. The key to the approach is to keep a student in a decision‐making environment. The tools and methods of the three areas are only introduced as they aid the analysis of the decision. This immediate application in a decision context motivates a student to learn the tool and visualize its use.
PROPOSALS FOR A PROGRAM OF EMPIRICAL RESEARCH INTO THE PROPERTIES OF TRIANGLES*
Authors: Christenson Charles
Published: June 2007

Physical geometry is viewed in this essay as the prototype of a successful generalizing empirical science. Suppose that physical geometry had been studied in ancient Egypt by empirical methods similar to those commonly used today by many researchers seeking general propositions useful in explaining, predicting, or controlling phenomena of interest to practicing managers. Would these methods have produced valid and useful geometric generalizations? This intriguing question is explored in Part I by means of a parable which suggests a negative answer to the question. The reasons for this negative conclusion are developed in Part II. In the successful generalizing sciences, general propositions (or theory) have not been the result of an a posteriori“induction” from observational data, but rather the result of an a priori“construction” of a framework for the coordination of measurement operations. Such a framework, whether explicitly articulated or not, is a necessary condition for the collection of coherent and reproducible observational data and, therefore, for explanation, prediction, and control of phenomena. Yet, despite its a priori character, an acceptable framework or theory must be “empirical” in Popper's sense of being subject to refutation by observation. If the framework is logically prior to data, however, what is its source? In the successful generalizing sciences, it is argued in Part III, theories have been generalized not from data but from the skills—the coordination of operations—of practitioners. This genesis “explains” the success of the sciences, because an effective skill includes within itself tests of its range of applicability and adapts itself to changing conditions. A discussion of the implications of this argument for making management “scientific” concludes the essay.
ADDRESSING THE IMPLEMENTATION PROBLEM: A GAMING APPROACH
Authors: Davis K. Roscoe , Taylor Bernard W.
Published: June 2007

Traditionally decision sciences has been plagued with the problem of implementation, i.e., transforming a sound theoretical technique into an operational system. Most researchers who study the problem concentrate on identifying factors which relate to implementation or on identifying the change process required to achieve implementation. In a recent study, Sorensen and Zand [24] demonstrate that the Lewin‐Schein change theory explains the process necessary for achieving implementation.

While the Lewin‐Schein theory explains the required change process, the theory does not address the question of how one brings about change. The purpose of this article is to describe a “gaming” approach for accomplishing change. A case example is given to demonstrate the proposed implementation methodology.
AN EFFICIENT METHOD FOR DETERMINING THE WAITING TIME DISTRIBUTION OF QUEUES
Authors: Lau Hon‐Shiang
Published: June 2007

This paper presents a practical method for determining the waiting time distribution of a single‐stage queueing system for general distribution of inter‐arrival/service times. The method requires the matrix solution of Lindley's equation for waiting time distribution by treating time in discrete units. Some important characteristics of the method are: a) it is easily programmable; b) it has high accuracy; c) it has modest CPU time and storage requirements; and, d) it requires no mathematical functional form for inter‐arrival/service time distributions.
ORGANIZATIONAL SEGMENTATION AND LABOR TRANSFER POLICIES IN LABOR AND MACHINE LIMITED PRODUCTION SYSTEMS
Authors: Fryer John S.
Published: June 2007

This paper describes a simulation study to examine the effects of different organizational structures on the performance of a dual‐constraint job shop production system. A hypothetical shop in which machines and workers are constraining resources is the setting of the study. The shop consists of divisions comprised of work centers which contain machines to which workers are assigned. There are fewer workers than machines. Variations in organizational structure are achieved by segmenting a fixed number of work centers equally into varying numbers of divisions. Mean flow‐time, flow‐time variance, and worker transfers between divisions and work centers are used as performance measures. Changes in organizational segmentation are shown to affect the performance of the production system and the effects are dependent on the extent to which workers can be transferred between the divisions of the system.
MODELING OF CONFIGURAL JUDGMENT PROCESSES AS A SERIES OF SUBSPACE HYPERPLANES
Authors: Gooch Lawrence L. , Wagner G. R.
Published: June 2007

Past research in modeling human judgments has been accompanied by continuing debate as to the necessity and effectiveness of using “configural” models, vis‐a‐vis“first‐order” models, to represent complex decision processes. The resounding power of first‐order models adequately to represent apparently configural processes repeatedly has been demonstrated to the frustration of those researchers who intuitively feel that man decides in a complex and configural manner. This paper presents the theory that the apparent weakness of configural models may be attributed to the assumption that interaction effects are “continuous” phenomena when in fact they are “discrete” or local interactions.

The definition of subspaces of the predictor set, over which “local” first‐order hyperplanes may be used, is investigated as a viable means of representing “discrete” interactions while preserving some of the parsimony of the “continuous” formulations. The application of the Automatic Interaction Detection technique to define subspaces and local models is attempted with positive results for an installment loan officer. Then a comparison with the results from a recent study which used various “continuous” formulations shows a definite superiority of the “local” modeling approach.