bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Desenvolvimento de protótipo de baixo custo de protese de mão miolétrica
Authors: Lerbarch Pautz Claudiana Eduarda , Modolo Braz Bruno Peterle , Valladão Junior Newton , Lube dos Santos Otávio
Published: July 2019

This study aims to present a proposal for the construction of myoelectric prostheses, reducing its production costs but providingenough movements degrees for daily activities. It has been collected techniques for processing myoelectric signals and its usage on controlling electronic devices.It is observed a rich number of articles about this subject, however, only few related with the controlling of complex movements such as those of a hand, without using support circuits with pre-selected functions that get activated with myoelectric signal pulse, that feature limits the automation degree. In conclusion due to the myoelectric signalcharacteristic it’s necessary to have multiple sensors to create a signal combination and relate them to control desired functions.In other hand, when the subject is the construction of prostheses there are many open source projects going for accessibility and cost reduction, in that way it’s only needed to design the connection between limb and protheses, everything supported by 3D scans apps for smartphones
Redes de sensores aplicadas à agricultura: Uma prova de conceito com uma estufa inteligente
Authors: Lube dos Santos Otávio , Calvi De Bone Arthur Carlos
Published: July 2019

Nowadays, the quantity of water resources demanded by the lack of rainfall that restores it in nature, the contamination of river basins by the man and the waste in its use has caused the government to implement water rationing programs both in the field and incities, which directly affected rural producers in irrigation of their crops. Being theagriculture is responsible for the use of 70% of the water consumed by man, creating a system that avoids wastage in irrigation would alleviate water demand by agriculture. This work has the purpose of creating an automatic and intelligent system that irrigates the crops in the right measure and the demand of the crop, favoring their development and consequently avoiding the waste of water. In order for the irrigation system to show responses consistent with the proposal of this work, the environment where the crops aregrown must be controlled. For this, the system will be implemented in an intelligent greenhouse where, through sensors and actuators, we can control the temperature and humidity of the ambient air without external interference
Opportunities for Occupational Therapy on a Primary Care Team
Authors: Winship Jodi M. , Ivey Carole K. , Etz Rebecca S.
Published: July 2019

Importance: Leaders in the occupational therapy profession have called for occupational therapy’s inclusion in primary care, but little is known about the occupational needs of patients in this setting.

Objective: To explore the need for and potential role of occupational therapy in a team-based primary care clinic.

Design: A qualitative descriptive study using a convenience sample of clinicians and patients. Meetings and semistructured interviews were recorded, transcribed, and coded by multiple coders using a general immersion–crystallization approach to identify relevant themes.

Setting: Outpatient complex care clinic of an urban academic medical center.

Participants: The study included a voluntary sample of clinicians and patients from the complex care clinic. Patients were recruited from a staff-provided list; eligible patients had attended the clinic for at least 1 yr. All patients had multiple chronic conditions and were uninsured or received Medicaid.

Results: Researchers attended 10 clinician team meetings and conducted 13 patient interviews and 10 clinician interviews. Four domains of patient need were identified by both patients and clinicians: complex medical management, patients’ limited resources, mental health needs, and challenges to occupation. Clinicians also identified cognitive–behavioral challenges affecting care, including lack of engagement and poor problem solving.

Conclusions and Relevance: The makeup of the clinic team reflected their intent to address medical, socioeconomic, and mental health domains. However, cognitive–behavioral challenges and patients’ occupational limitations were not consistently addressed. Thus, patients had unmet needs that occupational therapy practitioners were qualified to address.

What this Article Adds: This study adds to the available literature examining patient needs and clinician challenges in a primary care clinic. Patients have occupational needs that are not being addressed in primary care, indicating a need for occupational therapy in this setting.
Complex Task Performance Assessment (CTPA) and Functional Cognition in People With Parkinson’s Disease
Authors: Davis Alison , Wolf Timothy J. , Foster Erin R.
Published: July 2019

OBJECTIVE. The objective of this study was to determine how Parkinson’s disease (PD) affects functional cognition as assessed by the Complex Task Performance Assessment (CTPA) and to examine the associations of CTPA performance with other indicators of executive function in people with PD.

METHOD. Volunteers with PD without dementia (n = 20) and community control participants (n = 19) completed neuropsychological testing, patient-reported outcome measures, and the CTPA.

RESULTS. There were no group differences for CTPA performance accuracy; however, the PD group took longer to complete the CTPA than did the control group. In the PD group, inefficient CTPA performance correlated with poorer cognitive flexibility and worse reported everyday shifting and task monitoring.

CONCLUSION. Decreased executive function, namely cognitive flexibility and attentional control, may impair functional cognition in people with PD. Future studies with larger, more diverse samples are warranted to determine the discriminant validity and sensitivity of the CTPA. Use of performance-based assessments such as the CTPA may increase the understanding of functional cognition in people with PD.
A methodology to constrain carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants using satellite observations of co-emitted nitrogen dioxide
Authors: Liu Fei , Duncan Bryan N. , Krotkov Nickolay A. , Lamsal Lok N. , Beirle Steffen , Griffin Debora , McLinden Chris A. , Goldberg Daniel L. , Lu Zifeng
Published: July 2019

Abstract. We present a novel method to infer CO2 emissions from individual power plants based on satellite observations of co-emitted nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and demonstrate its utility on US power plants, where accurate stack emission estimates of both gases are available for comparison. In the first step of our methodology, we infer nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions from isolated power plants using Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) NO2 tropospheric vertical column densities (VCDs) averaged over the ozone season (May–September) and a "top-down" approach that we previously developed. Second, we determine the relationship between NOx and CO2 emissions based on the direct stack emissions measurements reported by continuous emissions monitoring system (CEMS) programs, accounting for coal type, boiler firing type, NOx emission control device type, and changes in operating conditions. Third, we estimate CO2 emissions of the ozone season for a plant using the OMI-estimated NOx emissions and the CEMS NOx / CO2 emission ratio. We find that the CO2 emissions estimated by our satellite-based method during 2005–2017 are in reasonable agreement with the CEMS measurements, with a relative difference of 8 % ± 41 % (mean ± standard deviation) for the selected US power plants in our analysis. Total uncertainty in the inferred CO2 estimates is partly associated with the uncertainty associated with the OMI NO2 VCD data, so we expect that it will decrease when our method is applied to OMI-like sensors with improved capabilities, such as TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) and geostationary Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring Pollution (TEMPO). The broader implication of our methodology is that it has the potential to provide an additional constraint on CO2 emissions from power plants in regions of the world without reliable emissions accounting. We explore the feasibility by applying our methodology to a power plant in South Africa, where the satellite-based emission estimates show reasonable consistency with other estimates.
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Authors: Lund Marianne T. , Myhre Gunnar , Samset Bjørn H.
Published: July 2019

Abstract. Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are expected to change drastically over the coming decades, with potentially significant climate implications. Using the most recent generation of harmonized emission scenarios, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as input to a global chemistry transport and radiative transfer model, we provide estimates of the projected future global and regional burdens and radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols under three different levels of air pollution control: strong (SSP1), medium (SSP2) and weak (SSP3). We find that the broader range of future air pollution emission trajectories spanned by the SSPs compared to previous scenarios translates into total aerosol forcing estimates in 2100 relative to 1750 ranging from −0.04 W m−2 in SSP1-1.9 to −0.51 W m−2 in SSP3-7.0. Compared to our 1750–2015 estimate of −0.61 W m−2, this shows that depending on the success of air pollution policies over the coming decades, aerosol radiative forcing may weaken by nearly 95 % or remain close to the pre-industrial to present-day level. In all three scenarios there is a positive forcing in 2100 relative to 2015, from 0.51 W m−2 in SSP1-1.9 to 0.04 W m−2 in SSP3-7.0. Results also demonstrate significant differences across regions and scenarios, especially in South Asia and Africa. While rapid weakening of the negative aerosol forcing following effective air quality policies will unmask more of the greenhouse gas-induced global warming, slow progress on mitigating air pollution will significantly enhance the atmospheric aerosol levels and risk to human health. In either case, the resulting impacts on regional and global climate can be significant.
Low-level mixed-phase clouds in a complex Arctic environment
Authors: Gierens Rosa , Kneifel Stefan , Shupe Matthew D. , Ebell Kerstin , Maturilli Marion , Löhnert Ulrich
Published: July 2019

Abstract. Low-level mixed-phase clouds (MPC) are common in the Arctic. Both local and large scale phenomena influence the properties and lifetime of MPC. Arctic fjords are characterized by complex terrain and large variations in surface properties. Yet, not many studies have investigated the impact of local boundary layer dynamics and their relative importance on MPC in the fjord environment. In this work, we used a combination of ground-based remote sensing instruments, surface meteorological observations, radiosoundings, and reanalysis data to study persistent low-level MPC at Ny Ålesund, Svalbard, for a 2.5 year period. Methods to identify the cloud regime, surface coupling, as well as regional and local wind patterns were developed. We found that persistent MPCs were most common with westerly winds, and the westerly clouds had a higher mean liquid (42 g m−2) and ice water path (16 g m−2) compared to the overall mean of 35 and 12 g m−2, respectively. Most of the studied MPCs were decoupled from the surface (63–82 % of the time). The coupled clouds had 41 % higher liquid water path than the fully decoupled ones. Local winds in the fjord were related to the frequency of surface coupling, and we propose that katabatic winds from the glaciers in the vicinity of the station may cause clouds to decouple. Furthermore, the near surface wind direction from the open sea was related to higher amounts of cloud liquid, and higher likelihood of coupling.We concluded that while the regional to large scale wind direction was important for the persistent MPC occurrence and its properties, also the local scale phenomena (local wind patterns in the fjord and surface coupling) had an influence. Moreover, this suggests that local boundary layer processes should be described in models in order to present low-level MPC properties accurately.
Humidity effects on the detection of soluble and insoluble nanoparticles in butanol operated condensation particle counters
Authors: Tauber Christian , Brilke Sophia , Wlasits Peter Josef , Bauer Paulus Salomon , Köberl Gerald , Steiner Gerhard , Winkler Paul Martin
Published: July 2019

Abstract. In this study the impact of humidity on heterogeneous nucleation of n-butanol onto hygroscopic and nonabsorbent charged and neutral particles was investigated using a fast expansion chamber and commercial continuous flow type condensation particle counters (CPCs). More specifically, we measured the activation probability of sodium chloride (NaCl) and silver (Ag) nanoparticles by using n-butanol as condensing liquid with the size analyzing nuclei counter (SANC). In addition, the cutoff diameters of regular butanol-based CPCs for both seed materials under different charging states were measured and compared to SANC results. Our findings reveal a strong humidity dependence of NaCl particles in the sub-10 nm size range since the activation of sodium chloride seeds is enhanced with increasing relative humidity. In addition, negatively charged NaCl particles with a diameter below 3.5 nm reveal a charge-enhanced activation. For Ag seeds this humidity and charge dependence was not observed, underlining the importance of molecular interactions between seed and vapor molecules. Consequently, the cutoff diameter of a butanol-based CPC can be reduced significantly by increasing the relative humidity. This finding suggests that cutoff diameters of butanol CPCs under ambient conditions are likely smaller than corresponding cutoff diameters measured under clean (dry) laboratory conditions. At the same time, we caution that the humidity dependence may lead to wrong interpretations if the aerosol composition is not known.
Mirror mode physics: Amplitude limit
Authors: Treumann Rudolf A. , Baumjohann Wolfgang
Published: July 2019

Abstract. The mirror mode evolving in collisionless magnetised high-temperature thermally anisotropic plasmas is shown to resemble a macro-quantum state. Starting as a classical zero frequency ion fluid instability it saturates quasi-linearly at very low magnetic level, while forming extended magnetic bubbles.It traps the electron component into an adiabatic bounce motion along the magnetic field which causes a bulk electron anisotropy. This can drive an electron mirror mode (see Treumann and Baumjohann, 2018b, who identified it in old spacecraft data). More important, however, we show that trapped electrons play the dominant role of further evolution towards a stationary state. Interaction of the trapped bouncing electrons with the thermal level of ion sound waves causes attractive potentials between electrons and forms electron pairs in the lowest-energy singlet state of two combined electrons. This happens preferentially near the electron mirror points resulting in a diamagnetic current effect which ultimately drives evolution of the magnetic field into large amplitude mirror bubbles causing diamagnetism and expelling a larger fraction of magnetic flux from the interior of the initial quasi-linearly stable mirror mode bottle. Estimates given in view of mirror modes in the magnetosheath are in reasonable numerical agreement with observation. We derive the self-consistent final state of the mirror bubbles. This analysis demonstrates that the observed mirror mode in high temperature space plasmas (solar wind, magnetosheath, magnetotail) is not a simple magnetohydrodynamic instability. It resembles a classical super-conducting, super-fluid state in high temperature plasma under conditions when electron pairs form. This is a most interesting observation which suggests that pair formation can become relevant in space and astrophysics.
An efficient multi-resolution grid for global models and coupled systems
Authors: Li Jian-Guo
Published: July 2019

Abstract. The latitude-longitude (lat-lon) grid is the most widely
used global coordinate system for various purposes but its singularity at
the Pole and the vector polar problems associated with its converging
meridians hinder its applications. Well from the very start of numerical
modelling history, quite a few grids have been attempted to tackle these
problems and reduced grid is the simplest one among other grids. However,
the reduced grid is almost abandoned by modern numerical modellers due to
its unsatisfactory results for dynamical models in the polar region.
Spherical multiple-cell (SMC) grid is similar to the reduced grid apparently
but uses the unstructured technique for efficiency. It merges longitudinal
cells at high latitudes like the reduced grid to overcome the CFL
restriction and introduces a polar cell to remove the polar singularity. It
also supports quad-tree-like mesh refinement to form a multi-resolution
grid. To tackle the vector polar problem associated with the increased
curvature at high latitudes, the SMC grid uses a new fixed reference
direction to define vector components near the poles for improved polar
performance. Global transportation is quite efficient on the SMC grid with
optional second or third order transportation scheme. Present applications
of the SMC grid, particularly in ocean surface wave models, are presented
and possible future usage in global models and coupled systems are proposed.
Decoupling of net community production and particulate organic carbon dynamics in near shore surface ocean waters
Authors: Rosengard Sarah Z. , Izett Robert W. , Burt William J. , Schuback Nina , Tortell Philippe D.
Published: July 2019

Abstract. We report results from two Lagrangian surveys off the coast of Oregon, using continuous ship-board sensors to estimate mixed layer net community production (NCP) from diel cycles in biological oxygen saturation (∆O2 / Ar) and optically-derived estimates of particulate organic carbon (POC) and phytoplankton carbon (Cph). The first drifter survey, conducted in a nearshore upwelling zone during the development of a microplankton bloom, exhibited significant differences in NCP derived from ∆O2 / Ar and POC diel cycles, suggesting the presence of large POC losses from the mixed layer. At this site, we utilized the discrepancy between NCPO2 / Ar and NCPPOC, along with additional constraints derived from mixed layer nutrient inventories and surface water excess nitrous oxide (N2O), to estimate particle export, vertical mixing fluxes and DOC production. We estimate that export, vertical mixing and DOC production account for 13–45 %, 24–38 % and 25–49 % of the daily NCP discrepancy, respectively. In contrast, the second drifter survey occurred in more oligotrophic offshore waters, where NCP derived from ∆O2 / Ar and POC measurements were more closely coupled, suggesting a tighter relationship between production and community respiration. These results support the use of diel POC measurements to accurately estimate NCP in lower productivity waters with limited vertical carbon export. Although diel POC measurements may underestimate NCP in higher productivity waters, our results highlight the potential utility of coupled O2 and optical measurements to estimate the fate of POC in such regions.
EDGAR v4.3.2 Global Atlas of the three major greenhouse gas emissions for the period 1970–2012
Authors: Janssens-Maenhout Greet , Crippa Monica , Guizzardi Diego , Muntean Marilena , Schaaf Edwin , Dentener Frank , Bergamaschi Peter , Pagliari Valerio , Olivier Jos G. J. , Peters Jeroen A. H. W. , van Aardenne John A. , Monni Suvi , Doering Ulrike , Petrescu A. M. Roxana , Solazzo Efisio , Oreggioni Gabriel D.
Published: July 2019

Abstract. The Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) compiles
anthropogenic emissions data for greenhouse gases (GHGs), and for multiple air
pollutants, based on international statistics and emission factors. EDGAR data
provide quantitative support for atmospheric modelling and for mitigation
scenario and impact assessment analyses as well as for policy evaluation. The
new version (v4.3.2) of the EDGAR emission inventory provides global
estimates, broken down to IPCC-relevant source-sector levels, from 1970 (the
year of the European Union's first Air Quality Directive) to 2012 (the end
year of the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol, KP). Strengths of
EDGAR v4.3.2 include global geo-coverage (226 countries), continuity in time,
and comprehensiveness in activities. Emissions of multiple chemical
compounds, GHGs as well as air pollutants, from relevant sources (fossil fuel
activities but also, for example, fermentation processes in agricultural
activities) are compiled following a bottom-up (BU), transparent and IPCC-compliant methodology. This paper describes
EDGAR v4.3.2 developments with respect to three major long-lived GHGs (CO2,
CH4, and N2O) derived from a wide range of human activities
apart from the land-use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector and
apart from savannah burning; a companion paper quantifies and discusses
emissions of air pollutants. Detailed information is included for each of the
IPCC-relevant source sectors, leading to global totals for 2010 (in the
middle of the first KP commitment period) (with a 95 % confidence
interval in parentheses): 33.6(±5.9) Pg CO2 yr−1, 0.34(±0.16) Pg CH4 yr−1, and 7.2(±3.7) Tg N2O yr−1. We provide uncertainty factors in emissions
data for the different GHGs and for three different groups of countries: OECD
countries of 1990, countries with economies in transition in 1990, and the
remaining countries in development (the UNFCCC non-Annex I parties). We
document trends for the major emitting countries together with the European
Union in more detail, demonstrating that effects of fuel markets and
financial instability have had greater impacts on GHG trends than effects of
income or population. These data (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2658138,
Janssens-Maenhout et al., 2019) are visualised with annual and monthly global emissions grid maps
of 0.1∘×0.1∘ for each source sector.
The AROME-WMED reanalyses of the first special observation period of the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean experiment (HyMeX)
Authors: Fourrié Nadia , Nuret Mathieu , Brousseau Pierre , Caumont Olivier , Doerenbecher Alexis , Wattrelot Eric , Moll Patrick , Bénichou Hervé , Puech Dominique , Bock Olivier , Bosser Pierre , Chazette Patrick , Flamant Cyrille , Di Girolamo Paolo , Richard Evelyne , Saïd Frédérique
Published: July 2019

Abstract. To study key processes of the water cycle, two special observation periods (SOPs) of the Hydrological cycle in the Mediterranean experiment (HyMeX) took place during autumn 2012 and winter 2013.
The first SOP aimed to study high precipitation systems and flash flooding in the Mediterranean area.
The AROME-WMED (western Mediterranean) model (Fourrié et al., 2015) is a dedicated version of the mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) AROME-France model, which covers the western Mediterranean basin providing the HyMeX operational center with daily real-time analyses and forecasts.
These products allowed for adequate decision-making for the field campaign observation deployment and the instrument operation. Shortly after the end of the campaign, a first reanalysis with more observations was performed with the first SOP operational software.
An ensuing comprehensive second reanalysis of the first SOP, which included field research observations (not assimilated in real time) and some reprocessed observation datasets, was made with AROME-WMED.
Moreover, a more recent version of the AROME model was used with updated background error statistics for the assimilation process. This paper depicts the main differences between the real-time version and the benefits brought by HyMeX reanalyses with AROME-WMED.
The first reanalysis used 9 % additional data and the second one 24 % more compared to the real-time version. The second reanalysis is found to be closer to observations than the previous AROME-WMED analyses. The second reanalysis forecast errors of surface parameters are reduced up to the 18 and 24 h forecast range. In the middle and upper troposphere, fields are also improved up to the 48 h forecast range when compared to radiosondes. Integrated water vapor comparisons indicate a positive benefit for at least 24 h. Precipitation forecasts are found to be improved with the second reanalysis for a threshold up to 10 mm (24 h)−1. For higher thresholds, the frequency bias is degraded. Finally, improvement brought by the second reanalysis is illustrated with the Intensive Observation Period (IOP8) associated with heavy precipitation over eastern Spain and southern France.
Modeling extreme precipitation over East China with a global variable-resolution modeling framework (MPASv5.2): impacts of resolution and physics
Authors: Zhao Chun , Xu Mingyue , Wang Yu , Zhang Meixin , Guo Jianping , Hu Zhiyuan , Leung L. Ruby , Duda Michael , Skamarock William
Published: July 2019

Abstract. The non-hydrostatic atmospheric Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS-A),
a global variable-resolution modeling framework, is applied at a range of
resolutions from hydrostatic (60, 30, 16 km) to non-hydrostatic (4 km)
scales using regional refinement over East Asia to simulate an extreme
precipitation event. The event is triggered by a typical wind shear in the
lower layer of the Meiyu front in East China on 25–27 June 2012 during the
East Asian summer monsoon season. The simulations are evaluated using ground
observations and reanalysis data. The simulated distribution and intensity
of precipitation are analyzed to investigate the sensitivity to model
configuration, resolution, and physics parameterizations. In general,
simulations using global uniform-resolution and variable-resolution meshes
share similar characteristics of precipitation and wind in the refined
region with comparable horizontal resolution. Further experiments at
multiple resolutions reveal the significant impacts of horizontal resolution
on simulating the distribution and intensity of precipitation and updrafts.
More specifically, simulations at coarser resolutions shift the zonal
distribution of the rain belt and produce weaker heavy precipitation centers
that are misplaced relative to the observed locations. In comparison,
simulations employing 4 km cell spacing produce more realistic features of
precipitation and wind. The difference among experiments in modeling rain
belt features is mainly due to the difference in simulated wind shear
formation and evolution during this event. Sensitivity experiments show that
cloud microphysics have significant effects on modeling precipitation at
non-hydrostatic scales, but their impacts are relatively small compared to
that of convective parameterizations for simulations at hydrostatic scales.
This study provides the first evidence supporting the use of
convection-permitting global variable-resolution simulations for studying
and improving forecasting of extreme precipitation over East China and
motivates the need for a more systematic study of heavy precipitation events
and the impacts of physics parameterizations and topography in the future. The key points are as follows.
Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) simulations at global uniform and variable resolutions share similar characteristics of precipitation and wind in the refined region. Numerical experiments reveal significant impacts of resolution on
simulating the distribution and intensity of precipitation and updrafts. This study provides evidence supporting the use of convection-permitting
global variable-resolution simulation to study extreme precipitation.
Simulations of future changes in thermal structure of Lake Erken: Proof of concept for ISIMIP2b lake sector local simulation strategy
Authors: Ayala Ana I. , Moras Simone , Pierson Don C.
Published: July 2019

Abstract. This paper, as a part of Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b), assesses the impacts of different levels of global warming on the thermal structure of Lake Erken (Sweden). The GOTM one-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to simulate water temperature when using ISIMIP2b bias-corrected climate model projections as input. These projections have a daily time step, while lake model simulations are often forced at hourly or shorter time steps. Therefore, it was necessary to first test the ability of GOTM to simulate Lake Erken water temperature using daily vs hourly meteorological forcing data. In order to do this three data sets were used to force the model: (1) hourly measured data; (2) daily average data derived from the first data set and; (3) synthetic hourly data created from the daily data set using Generalized Regression Artificial Neural Network methods. This last data set is developed using a method that could also be applied to the daily time step ISIMIP scenarios to obtain hourly model input if needed. The lake model was shown to accurately simulate Lake Erken water temperature when forced with either daily or synthetic hourly data. Long-term simulations forced with daily or synthetic hourly meteorological data suggest that by 2099 the lake will undergo clear changes in thermal structure, for RCP 2.6 surface water temperature was projected to increase from 0.87 to 1.48 °C and from 0.69 to 1.20 °C when the lake model was forced at daily and hourly resolutions respectively, and for RCP 6.0 these increases were projected to range from 1.58 to 3.58 °C and from 1.19 to 2.65 °C when the lake model was also forced at daily and hourly resolutions. Changes in lake stability were projected to increase significantly and the stratification duration was projected to be longer by 9 to 16 days and from 7 to 13 days under RCP 2.6 scenario and from 20 to 33 days and from 17 to 27 under RCP 6.0 scenario for daily and hourly resolutions. Model trends were very similar when using either the daily or synthetic hourly forcing, suggesting that the original climate model projections at a daily time step can be sufficient for the purpose of simulating water temperature in the lake sector in ISIMIP.
Decomposition technique for contributions to groundwater heads from inside and outside of an arbitrary boundary: application to Guantao County, North China Plain
Authors: Li Ning , Kinzelbach Wolfgang , Li Haitao , Li Wenpeng , Chen Fei
Published: July 2019

Abstract. To assess the efficiency of the groundwater management of an
administrative unit, we propose decomposing the groundwater head changes
within an administrative unit into inside and outside contributions by using
numerical models. Guantao County of Hebei Province, China, serves as an
example to demonstrate the decomposition technique. The groundwater flow
model of Guantao was constructed using observed heads as prescribed head
boundary conditions. The model was coupled with Hydrus 1-D to calculate the
groundwater recharge distribution in time reflecting the delay and damping
effects of the soil column on seepage at the surface. The model was
calibrated by adjusting parameters such as hydraulic conductivities,
recharge infiltration ratios and specific yields. The calibrated parameters
are then used in a large model with a boundary at a large distance from
Guantao administrative boundary to determine the groundwater head changes
due to inside drivers. The differences of the two models on the Guantao
boundary serve as the specified head values on the boundary for a small-scale model, which is used to calculate the groundwater head imposed by
outside drivers. To eliminate inconsistencies caused by the different types
of boundary conditions of large and small models, the groundwater head
changes due to inside drivers must be updated. The results indicate that the
groundwater head changes in the center and south of Guantao County are
influenced equally by both inside and outside contributions, while in the
north outside contributions have the stronger impact. On average, 48.5 %
of groundwater head changes in the whole of Guantao County is influenced by
inside contributions, while 51.5 % is due to outside
contributions. The sensitivity analysis shows that the groundwater
head changes and their decomposition are much more sensitive to infiltration
ratios than to the aquifer parameters. The parameters within Guantao have a
certain influence on the net groundwater head changes, while the parameters
outside of Guantao only have an influence on the decomposition.
Assessment of spatial uncertainty of heavy rainfall at catchment scale using a dense gauge network
Authors: O Sungmin , Foelsche Ulrich
Published: July 2019

Abstract. Hydrology and remote-sensing communities have made use of dense rain-gauge networks for studying rainfall uncertainty and variability. However, in most regions, these dense networks are only available at small spatial scales (e.g., within remote-sensing subpixel areas) and over short periods of time. Just a few studies have applied a similar approach, i.e., employing dense gauge networks to catchment-scale areas, which limits the verification of their results in other regions. Using 10-year rainfall measurements from a network of 150 rain gauges, WegenerNet (WEGN), we assess the spatial uncertainty in observed heavy rainfall events. The WEGN network is located in southeastern Austria over an area of 20 km × 15 km with moderate orography. First, the spatial variability in rainfall in the region was characterized using a correlogram at daily and sub-daily scales. Differences in the spatial structure of rainfall events between warm and cold seasons are apparent, and we selected heavy rainfall events, the upper 10 % of wettest days during the warm season, for further analyses because of their high potential for causing hazards. Secondly, we investigated the uncertainty in estimating mean areal rainfall arising from a limited gauge density. The average number of gauges required to obtain areal rainfall with errors less than a certain threshold (≤20 % normalized root-mean-square error – RMSE – is considered here) tends to increase, roughly following a power law as the timescale decreases, while the errors can be significantly reduced by establishing regularly distributed gauges. Lastly, the impact of spatial aggregation on extreme rainfall was examined, using gridded rainfall data with various horizontal grid spacings. The spatial-scale dependence was clearly observed at high intensity thresholds and high temporal resolutions; e.g., the 5 min extreme intensity increases by 44 % for the 99.9th and by 25 % for the 99th percentile, with increasing horizontal resolution from 0.1 to 0.01∘. Quantitative uncertainty information from this study can guide both data users and producers to estimate uncertainty in their own observational datasets, consequently leading to the sensible use of the data in relevant applications. Our findings could be transferred to midlatitude regions with moderate topography, but only to a limited extent, given that regional factors that can affect rainfall type and process are not explicitly considered in the study.
Dynamic path dependent landslide susceptibility modelling
Authors: Samia Jalal , Temme Arnaud , Bregt Arnold , Wallinga Jakob , Guzzetti Fausto , Ardizzone Francesca
Published: July 2019

Abstract. This contribution tests the added value of including landslide path dependency in statistically-based landslide susceptibility modelling. A conventional pixel-based landslide susceptibility model was compared with a model that includes landslide path dependency, and with a purely path dependent landslide susceptibility model. To quantify path dependency among landslides, we used a Space-Time Clustering (STC) measure derived from Ripley's space-time K function implemented on a point-based multi-temporal landslide inventory from the Collazzone study area in central Italy. We found that the values of STC obey an exponential decay curve with characteristic time scale of 17 years, and characteristic space scale of 60 meters. This exponential space-time decay of the effect of a previous landslide on landslide susceptibility was used as the landslide path dependency component of susceptibility models. We found that the performance of the conventional landslide susceptibility model improved considerably when adding the effect of landslide path dependency. In fact, even the purely path dependent landslide susceptibility model turned out to perform better than the conventional landslide susceptibility model. The conventional plus path dependent and path dependent landslide susceptibility model and their resulted maps are dynamic and change over time unlike conventional landslide susceptibility maps.
Contribution of the Sensitivity Analysis in Groundwater Vulnerability Assessing Using the DRASTIC and Composite DRASTIC Indexes
Authors: Malakootian Mohammad , Nozari Majid
Published: July 2019

Abstract. The present study estimates Kerman–Baghin aquifer vulnerability by applying the DRASTIC and composite DRASTIC (CDRASTIC) indexes. The factors affecting the transfer of contamination, including the water table depth, soil media, aquifer media, the impact of the vadose zone, topography, hydraulic conductivity, and land use, were ranked, weighted, and integrated using a geographical information system (GIS). A sensitivity test has also been performed to specify the sensitivity of the parameters. The study results show that the topographic layer displays a gentle slope in the aquifer. The majority of the aquifer covered irrigated field crops and grassland with a moderate vegetation cover. In addition, the aquifer vulnerability maps indicate very similar results, recognizing the northwest parts of the aquifer as areas with high and very high vulnerability. The map removal sensibility analysis (MRSA) revealed the impact of the vadose zone (in the DRASTIC index) and hydraulic conductivity (in the CDRASTIC index) as the most effective parameters in the vulnerability evaluation. In both indexes, the single-parameter sensibility analysis (SPSA) showed net recharge as the most effective factor in the vulnerability estimation. From this study, it can be concluded that vulnerability maps can be used as a tool to control human activities for the sustained protection of aquifers.
A comprehensive model for the kyr and Myr timescales of Earth's axial magnetic dipole field
Authors: Morzfeld Matthias , Buffett Bruce A.
Published: July 2019

Abstract. We consider a stochastic differential equation model
for Earth's axial magnetic dipole field.
Our goal is to estimate the model's parameters
using diverse and independent data sources that had previously been treated separately,
so that the model is a valid representation of an expanded paleomagnetic record
on kyr to Myr timescales.
We formulate the estimation problem within the Bayesian framework
and define a feature-based posterior distribution
that describes probabilities of model parameters given
a set of features derived from the data.
Numerically, we use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)
to obtain a sample-based representation of the posterior distribution.
The Bayesian problem formulation and its MCMC solution
allow us to study the model's limitations and remaining posterior uncertainties.
Another important aspect of our overall approach is that
it reveals inconsistencies between model and data or within the various data sets.
Identifying these shortcomings is a first and necessary step towards building more sophisticated models or towards resolving inconsistencies within the data.
The stochastic model we derive represents
selected aspects of the long-term behavior of the geomagnetic dipole field
with limitations and errors that are well defined.
We believe that such a model is useful (besides its limitations) for hypothesis testing and give a few examples of how the model can be used in this context.
Non-linear aspects of the tidal dynamics in the Sylt-Rømø Bight,
south-eastern North Sea
Authors: Fofonova Vera , Androsov Alexey , Sander Lasse , Kuznetsov Ivan , Amorim Felipe , Hass H. Christian , Wiltshire Karen H.
Published: July 2019

Abstract. This study investigates the tidal dynamics in the Sylt-Rømø bight with a focus on the non-linear processes. The FESOM-C model was used as the numerical tool, which works with triangular, rectangular or mixed meshes and is equipped with a wetting/drying option. As the model's success at resolving currents largely depends on the quality of the bathymetric data, we have created a new bathymetric map for an area based on recent studies of Lister Deep, Lister Ley, and the Højer and Rømø Deep areas. This new bathymetric product made it feasible to work with high resolution grids (up to 2 m in the wetting/drying zone). As a result, we were able to study the tidal energy transformation and the role of higher harmonics in the domain in detail. For the first time, the tidal ellipses, maximum tidally-induced velocities, energy fluxes and residual circulation maps were constructed and analysed for the entire bight. Additionally, tidal asymmetry maps were introduced and constructed. The full analysis was performed on two grids with different structures and showed a convergence of the obtained results as well as fulfillment of the energy balance. A great deal of attention has been paid to the selection of open boundary conditions, model verification against available tide gauges, and recent ADCP data. The obtained results are necessary and useful benchmarks for further studies in the area, including baroclinic and sediment dynamics tasks.
Observation and explanation of spurious seismic signals emerging in teleseismic noise correlations
Authors: Li Lei , Boué Pierre , Campillo Michel
Published: July 2019

Abstract. Deep body waves have been reconstructed from seismic noise correlations in recent studies. Authors prospect their great potentials in deep-Earth imaging. In addition to the expected physical seismic phases, some spurious arrivals having no correspondence in earthquake seismograms are observed from the noise correlations. The origins of the noise-derived body waves have not been well understood. Traditionally, the reconstruction of seismic phases from inter-receiver noise correlations is attributed to the interference between waves from noise sources in the stationary-phase regions. The interfering waves emanating from a stationary-phase location have a common ray path from the source to the first receiver. The correlation operator cancels the common path and extracts a signal corresponding to the inter-receiver ray path. In this study, with seismic noise records from two networks at teleseismic distance, we show that noise-derived spurious seismic signals without correspondence in real seismograms can arise from the interference between waves without common ray path or common slowness. These noise-derived signals cannot be explained by the traditional stationary-phase arguments. Numerical experiments reproduce the observed spurious signals. These signals still emerge for uniformly distributed noise sources, and thus are not caused by localized sources. We interpret the presence of the spurious signals with a less restrictive condition of quasi-stationary phase: providing the time delays between interfering waves from spatially distributed noise sources are close enough, the stack of correlation functions over the distributed sources can still be constructive as an effect of finite frequencies, and thereby noise-derived signals emerge from the source averaging.
The effect of effective rock viscosity on 2D magmatic porosity waves
Authors: Dohmen Janik , Schmeling Harro , Kruse Jan Philipp
Published: July 2019

Abstract. In source regions of magmatic systems the temperature is above solidus and melt ascent is assumed to occur predominantly by two-phase flow which includes a fluid phase (melt) and a porous deformable matrix. Since McKenzie (1984) introduced his equations for two-phase flow, numerous solutions have been studied one of which predicts the emergence of solitary porosity waves. By now most analytical and numerical solutions for these waves used strongly simplified models for the shear- and bulk viscosity of the matrix, significantly overestimating the viscosity or completely neglecting the porosity-dependence of the bulk viscosity. Schmeling et al. (2012) suggested viscosity laws in which the viscosity decreases very rapidly for small melt fractions. They are incorporated into a 2D finite difference mantle convection code with two-phase flow (FDCON) to study the ascent of solitary porosity waves. The models show that, starting with a Gaussian shaped wave, they rapidly evolve into a solitary wave with similar shape and a certain amplitude. Despite the strongly weaker rheologies compared to previous viscosity laws the effect on dispersion curves and wave shape are only moderate as long as the background porosity is fairly small. The models are still in good agreement with semi-analytic solutions which neglect the shear stress term in the melt segregation equation. However, for higher background porosities and wave amplitudes associated with a viscosity decrease of 50% or more, the phase velocity and the width of the waves are significantly decreased. Our models show that melt ascent by solitary waves is still a viable mechanism even for more realistic matrix viscosities.
Spatiotemporal distributions of icebergs in a temperate fjord: Columbia Fjord, Alaska
Authors: Neuhaus Sarah U. , Tulaczyk Slawek M. , Branecky Begeman Carolyn
Published: July 2019

Abstract. Much of the world's ice enters the ocean via outlet
glaciers terminating in fjords. Inside fjords, icebergs may affect
glacier–ocean interactions by cooling incoming ocean waters, enhancing
vertical mixing, or providing back stress on the terminus. However,
relatively few studies have been performed on iceberg dynamics inside
fjords, particularly outside of Greenland. We examine icebergs calved from
Columbia Glacier, Alaska, over 8 months spanning late winter to mid-fall
using 0.5 m resolution satellite imagery, identifying icebergs based on
pixel brightness. Iceberg sizes fit a power-law distribution with an overall
power-law exponent, m, of -1.26±0.05. Seasonal variations in the
power-law exponent indicate that brittle fracture of icebergs is more
prevalent in the summer months. Combining our results with those from
previous studies of iceberg distributions, we find that iceberg calving
rate, rather than water temperature, appears to be the major control on the
exponent value. We also analyze icebergs' spatial distribution inside the
fjord and find that large icebergs (10 000–100 000 m2
cross-sectional area) have low spatial correlation with icebergs of smaller
sizes due to their tendency to ground on shallow regions. We estimate the
surface area of icebergs in contact with incoming seawater to be 3.0±0.63×104 m2. Given the much larger surface area of the terminus,
9.7±3.7×105 m2, ocean interactions with the terminus may
have a larger impact on ocean heat content than interactions with icebergs.