bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A clinico‐pathological approach to the classification of human demodicosis
Authors: Akilov Oleg E. , Butov Yuri S. , Mumcuoglu Kosta Y.
Published: July 2005

Background: Demodicosis is a parasitic skin disease caused by the follicle mites Demodex folliculorum and Demodex brevis. Although there are several clinical variants of this disease, a clear classification is missing.

Objective: To characterize the clinical features and course of the different forms of demodicosis.

Patients: Prospective study of 87 patients with clinical symptoms of demodicosis and positive acarological findings. Each patient was examined an average of six times during the treatment period.

Results: We suggest that demodicosis be divided into both primary and secondary types. The usual etiological agent of primary demodicosis is D. folliculorum, which causes an erythemato‐squamous eruption in the facial T‐zone. The rash starts on unaltered skin and covers 8 – 15 % of the face. Pruritus accompanies the onset of the rash, while erythema is first apparent after papulo‐pustules are seen and disappears after treatment. Half the patients show seasonal exacerbations. Secondary demodicosis is usually caused by D. brevis and characterized by a symmetrical malar papulo‐pustular eruption. It develops on diseased skin and covers 30 – 40 % of the face. Pruritus starts after the lesion exacerbation, but erythema precedes the papulo‐pustular phase and persists after treatment. Most patients flare during the summer.

The facial distribution, seasonality and pathogenesis, as well as the species of mite involved, must be taken into consideration in separating the various forms of demodicosis.
Systemic sclerosis with unusual panniculitis and overlying discoid lupus erythematosus‐like lesions
Authors: Oka Hiroshi , Tanikawa Akiko , Matsuda Fumio , Tanaka Masaru , Nishikawa Takeji
Published: July 2005

A 33‐year‐old men presented with systemic sclerosis accompanied by both unusual panniculitis and overlying discoid lupus erythematosus (DLE)‐like skin changes on the left buttock. The lesion did not completely match either lupus erythematosus profundus or morphea profunda but featured clinical and pathological findings halfway between the two entities. No case report of co‐existence of systemic sclerosis and morphea profunda was found in the literature, but there are three case reports of patients with systemic sclerosis and lupus erythematosus profundus. One of the three cases had DLE‐like changes on the surface of the lesion, a clinical picture similar to our case. We speculated that the DLE‐like changes in the overlying skin were due to local tissue ischemia. The accompanying panniculitis in our case was considered to be unique and somehow different from morphea profunda or lupus erythematosus profundus.
Popper or Production?
Authors: Fox Glenn , Kivanda Lena
Published: July 2005

Invited Paper

This paper assesses the way in which agricultural economists have employed the neoclassical theory of production. For purposes of appraisal, we adopt the falsificationist perspective of Samuelson (1947/l965) Silberberg (1978) and Blaug (1980). Appelbaum (1978) concludes that neoclassical production theory does not perform well with data from U.S. manufacturing. Our purpose in preparing this paper is to evaluate the empirical performance of production theory in agricultural, fisheries and forestry applications. To this end, we identify every paper that uses econometric techniques to estimate cost functions, profit functions or systems of factor demand functions published in the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, the Journal of Agricultural Economics, the Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, the Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics, the Review of Agricultural Economics formerly the North‐Central Journal of Agricultural Economics), the Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, the Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics (formerly the Western Journal of Agricultural Economics), the Agricultural and Resource Economics Review (formerly the Northeastern Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics) and the Review of Marketing and Agricultural Economics from 1976 to 1991 inclusive.

The results of a survey of these articles indicate that agricultural and natural resource economists have not taken falsificationist methodology seriously. In particular, the treatment of the falsifiable hypotheses of cost minimization and profit maximization as assumptions has been widespread. When these hypotheses have been tested, the track record of production theory is disappointing.
A Graphical Examination of an Importer/Exporter Oligopoly Trade Model
Authors: Fulton Murray , Karantininis Kostas
Published: July 2005

Market power considerations in international trade have income distribution effects among countries that can influence the position a country takes with respect to trade negotiations. Since models that examine a single country mask these distributional effects, it is important to consider more than one country in trade models. While the contribution of this paper is largely to the pedagogical foundation of agricultural economics in showing how models with two countries can be analyzed graphically — thereby opening this part of the literature up to a wider audience — the analysis also reinforces a point that is missed in models focusing on a single country. By showing under what conditions a country may prefer to use domestic policies even when this causes other countries to retaliate, the paper high‐lights one of the factors likely to be important in determining the success of international trading arrangements such as GATT.
The Social Welfare Loss from Egg and Poultry Marketing Boards, Revisited
Authors: Beck Roger , Hoskins Colin , Mumey Glen
Published: July 2005

Continuing conflict over supply management warrants another look at its costs. The authors' model combines the traditional welfare triangle with the social welfare loss created when farmers bear the investment risk associated with possible termination of quota protection. The annual net social welfare loss from egg and poultry marketing boards likely exceeds $100 million, with consumers losing more than $500 million. Half the net social welfare loss is the cost of risk bearing. Quota prices imply that farmers expect quota lives to be relatively short. Therefore, changing to short fixed terms might halve the social welfare loss without imposing capital losses on farmers and might facilitate a return to a free market or auctioning new fixed term quotas.
Forging Strategic Alliances in Canada's Agrifood Sector: Framework for Analysis and Action
Authors: van Duren Erna , McKay Helen
Published: July 2005

In recent years, participants in Canadas agrifood sector have become more concerned about their competitiveness and have identified strategic alliances as being vital to becoming more competitive. This paper is a review of economics, strategic management and other social science literature examining several issues such as:

the types of objectives organizations should pursue using strategic alliances

the appropriate configuration for a strategic alliance, given its objectives

advantages and disadvantages of strategic alliances versus other types of business relationships

factors that enhance or inhibit organizations' abilities to forge alliances.

The latter part of the paper concentrates on what managers interested in pursuing strategic alliances can do to enhance their chances of success.
Levels Versions of the Rotterdam Demand Model and Incorporation of Demographic, Stock and Other Nonprice, Nonincome variables
Authors: Brown Mark G.
Published: July 2005

Nonprice, nonincome variables are incorporated into a levels version of the Rotterdam model through scaling, translation, combined scaling‐translation and an approach suggested by Theil. In a study of advertising effects on grapefruit and other juice demands, the combined scaling‐translation specification is accepted against an unrestricted specification, while the other specifications are rejected.
Transactions Costs and New Institutions: Will CBLTs Have a Role in the Saskatchewan Land Market?
Authors: Gray Richard
Published: July 2005

Increases in farm foreclosures in the last decade have created pressures for individuals and organisations to seek alternatives to the traditional debt financing of farm land. A model of a Community Based Land Trust (CBLT) was developed by Brown, Gray and Molder as an alternative form of land tenure. The transaction cost economics literature suggests that a new institution will be adopted only if the institution results in an overall reduction in transaction costs. This paper evaluates the CBLT proposal by comparing the transactions costs with this form of tenure with the transaction costs of the more traditional form of tenure. The qualitative analysis revealed that no existing form of land tenure clearly dominates the CBLT thus porn a transaction cost perspective, the CBLT may have some probability of acceptance in the marketplace.
The Economic Value of Lottery‐rationed Recreational Hunting
Authors: Boxall Peter C.
Published: July 2005

Lottery‐rationed permit systems are used to allocate hunting opportunities where demand for permits exceeds the ability of the animal populations to sustain hunting harvest levels. Attempts to estimate the values of lottery‐rationed hunting use a zonal travel cost model where applications per capita formed the dependent variable and expected travel costs represent the price variable. This paper reexamines this analysis using a discrete choice travel cost model which incorporates the expectation of receiving a permit. This model is developed for lottery‐rationed antelope hunting in Alberta. Choice in the lottery‐rationed hunting context involves selecting one site from a set defined through management regulations. The discrete choice travel cost model is proposed as superior to the early models because it better represents this behavioral process.

Les systèmes de permis tirés par loterie sont utilisés pour l'attribution des possibilités de chasse dans des situations où la demande dépasse la capacité des populations de gibier à soutenir les niveaux annuels de prélèvement. Les tentatives antérieures pour estimer les valeurs des permis de chasse tirés par loterie utilisaient généralement un modèle de coût de déplacement par zone, dans lequel le nombre de demandes par habitant était la variable dépendante et les coûts de déplacement attendus représentaient la variable prix. Dans la présente étude, l'auteur a repris cette analyse en utilisant un modèle de coût de déplacement à choix discret, qui tient compte de l'espérance du chasseur de recevoir un permis. Le modèle est appliquéà la chasse à l'antilope d'Amérique en Alberta. Dans le contexte des permis de chasse tirés par loterie, le choix consiste à miser sur un des territoires énumérés sur une liste établie par les services de réglementation de la chasse. L'avantage du modèle de coût de déplacement avec choix discret sur les modèles antérieurs est qu'il tient mieux compte de ce processus de comportement.
Interprovincial Reallocation of Market Sharing Quota for Industrial Milk
Authors: Ewasechko Ann C. , Horbulyk Theodore M.
Published: July 2005

This paper examines allocations of industrial milk quota across provinces in Canada under two hypothetical scenarios. The study focuses on the case where considerable reallocation of production occurs across farms and provinces due to changes in the distribution of quota holdings. The allocations are determined using linear programming (LP) analysis, where the objective of the optimization problem is to minimize the delivered cost of products such as cheese, butter, ice cream, and yogurt. The LP model seeks to meet provincial targets for domestic disappearance on a milk‐equivalent basis in the short to medium term, where limits are imposed on the maximum achievable growth of production and processing capacity in any one I he conclusions are that reallocation of existing quota across farms and provinces has a potential to reduce considerably the costs of industrial milk production and the cost of transporting manufactured products.
Analyse de la libéralisation des échanges de quotas entre le Québec et l'Ontario dans le secteur laitier
Authors: Lambert R. , Romain R. , Roy B. Basillais et C.
Published: July 2005

L'objectif de cette étude est d'estimer les fonctions d'offre et de demande & quota de lait & transformation au Québec et en Ontario et d'évaluer les impacts potentiels d'un marché des quotas entre ces deux provinces. Les fonctions d'offre et de demande sont estimées par la méthode des moindres carrés à deux étapes et ce, pour quatre marchés, soit les marches des quotas produits et non produits dans chaque province.

Les résultats montrent que la flexibilityé de la demande est en général plus élévie en valeur absolue que celle de l'offre. Les résultats indiquent de plus que l'offre de quotas est élastique par rapport aux prix. Le modèle est utilisé pour simuler l'ouverture des marchés entre le Québec et l'Ontario. Les résultats indiquent que si un marché des quotas avait existé en 1992, le Québec aurait vu son quota de mise en marché augmenter de 3,4 % durant l'année, au détriment de l'Ontario qui aurait vu le sien diminuer d'environ 5,1%.
Ontario Beef Producers'Attitudes about Artificial Insemination
Authors: Howard Wayne H. , Cranfield John
Published: July 2005

Characteristics and attitudes of Ontario beef producers who use artificial insemination and those who use natural breeding are compared. Natural breeders are characterized as larger as well as more commercial and profit oriented. Time, convenience and problems with heat detection are the main problems natural breeders associate with artificial insemination.
Supply Management and Productivity Growth in Alberta Dairy
Authors: Richards Timothy J.
Published: July 2005

Specification of quota licenses as quasi‐fixed inputs in a multi‐variate flexible accelerator model of dynamic input adjustment reveals supply management's effect on Alberta dairy investment patterns and, thereby, on total factor productivity growth. Estimates of a dynamic dual model of Alberta dairy, using panel data from 1975–91, show that strong complementarity between cattle and quota licenses results in short‐run cattle adjustments that are opposite in direction from the long‐run adjustments. A model of total factor productivity growth under dynamic input adjustment shows that the distortions to cattle investment caused by investing in quota licenses adversely affects productivity growth. As a result, there is likely to be a significant understatement of single‐period estimates of the cost of supply management in the dairy sector.
Selection of Nonnested Demand Models
Authors: Green Richard D. , Hassan Zuhair A. , Johnson S. R.
Published: July 2005

This paper applies the likelihood dominance criterion (LDC), a new method of model selection developed by Pollak and Wales (1991), to four popular demand equation systems, using a set of seasonally adjusted quarterly Canadian data series. the results indicate that the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) dominates various alternative demand systems. the LDC method is useful in assisting demand analysts in selecting the proper demand specification. the paper also includes tests for unit roots and cointegration and, based on these tests, an error corrections model is estimated and tested against the popular but not theoretically plausible linear approximate almost ideal demand system.
Intertemporal and Interfirm Heterogeneity: Implications for Pesticide Productivity
Authors: Carpentier Alain , Weaver Robert D.
Published: July 2005

This paper presents evidence concerning the existence and implications of heterogeneity effects for estimates of the marginal productivity of pesticides, The paper extends the work of Calpentier and Weaver (1996a), which considered fured effects that homothetically shift the conditional mean of output. This paper considers the implications of time‐varying marginal productivity, allowing for nonhomothetic shifts in production. The extent and structure of heterogeneity found in French crop agriculture is first presented to illustrate that persistent heterogeneity exists across these firms. Next, we review the implications of such heterogeneity for econometric estimates and show that estimates of marginal productivity of pesticides will be biased when based on models that do not explicitly account for these types of heterogeneity across firms and time. An alternative estimation approach is proposed, based on Chamberlain (1982 and 1984) and implemented to produce asymptotically unbiased estimates and to statistically validate the model specification. Existence of fixed firm effects is statistically confirmed and temporal variation of marginal productivity is found to be substantial.
Sport and Commercial Fishing Allocations for the Atlantic Salmon Fisheries of the Miramichi River
Authors: Cook B. A. , McGaw R. L.
Published: July 2005

The Atlantic salmon has been harvested by both commercial and recreational fishers for many years on the river systems of the province of New Brunswick on Canada 's Atlantic coast. The commercial fisheries were closed and controls were placed on the recreational fisheries following the 1983 collapse of the salmon stocks. This management policy remains in effect. A preliminary analysis using a linear control model showed this to be an economically efficient harvest allocation policy on New Brunswick's Miramichi River. The analysis is extended to the more realistic nonlinear framework here to determine whether the harvest allocation decision would be significantly changed. Both fisheries are found to generate positive net economic benefits, although the recreational fishery is determined to be more valuable than the commercial fishery. Permanent closure of the commercial fishery is not indicated.
A Nonparametric Test of the Traditional Travel Cost Model
Authors: Boxall Peter C. , Adamowicz Wiktor L. , Tomasi Theodore
Published: July 2005

The traditional travel cost model operates on the assumption that choices are made regarding the number of trips to various sites over an entire recreation season. This paper uses actual recreation data to test the consistency of this model with postulates of rational economic choice as embodied in the axioms of revealed preference. The paper assumes consumer rationality and examines the effects of alternative trip prices and model structures on the degree of consistency between them and the axioms of choice. Using tests developed by Varian and Tsur, the authors find that site choices at prices proxied by travel costs for most individuals in the sample violate the axioms. The violations are quite large when time costs, both in traveling and on‐site, are omitted from the prices. When they are included, violations are almost as numerous, but not as large. The paper also examines demand heterogeneity by stratifying the sample and repeating the nonparametric tests. These findings suggest caution be used in interpreting welfare measures derived from traditional travel cost models, especially those that do not include measures of time value. The authors’ approach provides a method for screening travel cost data and preparing for model selection and estimation.
Equilibrium Analysis of a Quota‐regulated Market
Authors: Hennessy David A.
Published: July 2005

Existing micro economic studies of quota‐regulated markets have emphasized the short‐run effects of market disturbances. This paper considers the long‐run market equilibrium impacts of changes in technology, in input prices and in the distribution of output price when risk averse firms may freely enter and exit the regulated industry. Some of the results are intuitive, while others are not. In general, signing long‐run equilibrium results requires a less restrictive preference structure than does signing short‐run results. However, the nature of the equilibrating mechanism, ignored in partial analysis, is found to be important.
The Social Returns of Agricultural Practices for Promoting Water Quality Improvement
Authors: van Vuuren W. , Giraldez J. C. , Stonehouse D. P.
Published: July 2005

Soil erosion leads to various degrees of soil productivity loss and to pollution when contaminants load into watercourses. Practices to conserve soil do not inevitably profit farmers; in fact, for most farmers they do not. Still, in most instances, they do yield net off‐farm gains. Especially when on‐farm net costs are involved, then for policy intervention purposes it becomes necessary to calculate the social return of such practices. Total off‐farm returns depend on the degree of water quality improvement made, the number of water uses and users in a watershed, and society's willingness to pay for such improvement. This paper explores a new method for calculating the degree of water quality change from a loading reduction and its impact on social return. In a case study application for an Ontario watershed, water was used for only two purposes: angling and conveyance. Moreover, the degree of water quality improvement made from sediment and phosphorus reduction through modified agricultural practices was slight. This was mainly because of the presence of pollutants not necessarily originating from agriculture that prevented a substantial increase in water quality. As a consequence, in this case, off‐farm benefits from such reductions were low. On the other hand, several agronomic practices resulted in positive on‐farm returns.
Credit Risk Assessment and the Opportunity Costs of Loan Misclassification
Authors: Nayak Govindaray N. , Turvey Calum G.
Published: July 2005

This paper investigates the opportunity costs of loan misclassification in credit risk assessment, and develops a model that directly incorporates the opportunity costs of loan misclassification into the risk assessment criteria. The performance of this model is assessed by comparing the empirical results with the results of the logit credit scoring model using data provided by the Farm Credit Corporation of Canada. Results indicate that if both the models make a Type I and Type II error with a $1‐million loan, the expected costs of error would be $600 and $6, 500 less, respectively, in the cost minimization model compared with the logit model. The expected lenders's profit for a $1‐million loan would be $17, 000 more in cost minimization model compared with the logit model. The cost minimization model performed better than the logit model, both in prediction accuracy and also in reducing the costs associated with the errors in classification.
Analyzing Foreign Direct Investment Decisions by Food and everage Firms: An Empirical Model of Transaction Theory
Authors: Goldsmith Peter D. , Sporleder Thomas L.
Published: July 2005

Global trends in agricultural marketing include increased trade in processed foods, less intra‐industry trade, slower growth in trade of bulk commodities, and intensified adoption of processing and biological technologies. These trends temporally lead to increased investments by firms in intangible assets and tighter vertical controls. As a result of these trends, in the context of international trade governance, there is invigorated interest in the causal factors related to the boundaries of firms.

Using transaction economic theory and an empirical model, this research analyzes the determinants of international trade strategy in the food and beverage industry. The quantitative analysis involves a nested logit model of a sample of domestic and multinational firms in SIC 20. The nested logit employed is based on a two‐level nest of sequential dichotomous choice decisions regarding exporting and foreign direct investment (FDI). The first sequential decision is the boundary choice between remaining domestic or engaging in international trade of some form. The second sequential decision involves exporting or FDI. Model regressors include the size of the firm, level of product differentiation, intangible assets, research and development expenditures, long‐term debt, capital intensity, the country of origin and business structure.
GARCH and MARKOV Hedging at the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange
Authors: Sephton Peter S.
Published: July 2005

Several studies have demonstrated the gains to calculating optimal commodity hedge ratios using GARCH (generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity) models rather than the traditional OLS (ordinary least squares) approach to estimating the optimal hedge. The object of this note is to determine whether hedge ratios based on MARKOV models offer any improvement. The empirical results suggest MARKOV‐based hedges outperform hedges based on other methods only in low‐variance states.
The Potential for Increased Trade in Milk and Dairy Products between Canada and the United States under Trade Liberalization
Authors: Meilke Karl , Sarker Rakhal , Le Roy Danny
Published: July 2005

Controversy surrounds the effect of free trade in milk and dairy products between Canada and the United States. A static, nonspatial, synthetic, partial equilibrium model is used to explore this issue. The results show that under any reasonable set of parameter estimates, net trade between Canada and the United States would be small, or zero. Free trade would be accompanied by large welfare losses for the current owners of Canadian milk production quota, but new entrants to the industry would earn more producer surplus under free trade than if they paid the full rental value for production quota under the current supply management policy.
Crop Price and Risk Effects on Farm Abatement Costs
Authors: Weersink Alfons , Dutka Charry , Goss Michael
Published: July 2005

Potential leaching losses of nitrogen depend in large part on the crops grown. Since crop selection is a major means of abatement for nitrates in groundwater, it follows that the compliance costs to producers for reducing excess nitrogen is influenced by crop prices. This paper demonstrates the role that crop prices play in determining the level of on‐farm abatement costs and even the necessity for regulatory policies to deal with the nitrate problem. Government support programs, specifically the Gross Revenue Insurance Program (GRIP), have increased the relative support for corn, which has higher leachate potential than other crops, and thereby requires increased abatement effort. The required level of abatement is less when risk aversion is considered than under risk neutrality, since the variability in returns among rotations is related to the degree of emissions generated. Changes in the mean and variance of relative output prices can significantly alter the optimal crop mix, leachate potential and on‐farm abatement efforts. Subsequently, there is an effect on abatement costs associated with alternative environmental control instruments, which in turn affects policy design through issues such as political feasibility and equity considerations.
Canadian Dietary Fat Substitutions, 1955–93, and Coronary Heart Disease Costs
Authors: Gray Richard , Malla Stavroula , Stephen Alison
Published: July 2005

In this paper, we use a prevalence‐based, cost‐of‐illness approach to estimate the impact of change in dietary fat intake on coronary heart disease (CHD) costs in Canada. To this end, we review the clinical studies that have examined the relationship between fatty acid consumption and serum cholesterol levels. We estimate the increase in consumption of less saturated vegetable oils, which displaced some of the animal fats in the Canadian diet between 1955 and 1993, was responsible for an estimated 10.1% reduction in the incidence of CHD in Canada. This implies ex post a $832 million reduction in direct and indirect CHD costs in 1993. To put it another way, if Canadians had retained their 1955 diet in 1993, CHD costs would have been $832 million greater. Since many of these costs are external to marketplace, the magnitude of these numbers suggests a need to include health costs in the economic analysis of policies that affect fatty acid intake.
A Note on Evaluating Agricultural Policy in the Presence of Health Care Cost Externalities: Dairy Production Quotas and Coronary Heart Disease Costs
Authors: Gray Richard , Malla Stavroula
Published: July 2005

The purpose of this note is to illustrate that the health cost externalities related to food consumption are significant and can be large enough to have implications for the economic evaluation of agriculture and food policy. The individual dietary intake of fats can affect the probability of being afflicted with coronary eart disease (CHD). While fat consumption is primarily a private decision, much of the annual $7.4 billion cost of CHD in Canada is borne socially through publicly funded health care, disability and pension plans. This note calculates the per‐unit disease cost externality from saturated fatty acid consumption in Canada to be $5.07 per kilogram of saturated fatty acid. To demonstrate the importance for policy analysis, the disease cost externality was incorporated in a conventional welfare analysis of dairy production quotas in Canada. The externality was large enough to make the restrictive production quotas no further from social optimum than the competitive equilibrium. The importance of the disease cost externality suggests much more research is needed to incorporate these and other health cost externalities into many types of agricultural policy analysis.
The Wheat War of 1994: Comment
Authors: Babula Ronald A. , Jabara Cathy L.
Published: July 2005

The opinions expressed are those of the authors and not those of the United States International Trade Commission or any of its Commissioners. This article is a U.S. Government work and, as such, is in the public domain within the United States of America.
Domestic Price Regulations and Trade Policy: Milk Marketing Orders in the United States
Authors: Sumner Daniel A.
Published: July 2005

The United States maintains minor export subsidies and important import barriers for dairy products. Less transparent are the trade effects of milk marketing orders that provide for price discrimination by end‐use and price pooling. This article illustrates how adjustments in the end‐use price differential can compensate producers for losses when the price support is removed by stimulating exports and extracting added revenue from domestic buyers. The California system has smaller production incentives than the federal system. However, California does maintain explicit, if quantitatively trivial, export provisions in its marketing order.

Les États‐Unis conservent de légères subventions à l'exportation et des barrières tarifaires importantes à l'importation des produits laitiers. Ce qui est mains transparent, ce sont les effets commerciaux des ordonnances de mise en marché du lait qui prévalent un régime de double prix selon la destination et un mécanisme de mise en commun des prix du lait. Nous montrons comment, en manipulant les différences de prix selon la destination finale, on peut dédommager les producteurs pour les penes qu‘ils ont subies par suite du retrait du soutien des prix, en stimulant les exportations et en soutinant des recettes additionnelles des acheteurs sur le marché intérieur. Méme si le système adopté par la Californie off re de plus faibles incitatifs à la production que le système fédèral, il contient lui aussi des dispositions de soutien explicites, encore que quantitativement négligeables.
The U.S. Dairy Sector without Price Supports
Authors: Westhoff Patrick , Brown D. Scott
Published: July 2005

Under legislation approved in 1996, the U.S. dairy price support program would end on 31 December 1999. While U.S. dairy markets would continue to be protected by import tariffs and export subsidies, the previous floor under market prices would be removed. Given the prospective market situation, model results indicate that removing the price support program would have only modest impacts on the U.S. dairy industry. Prices of nonfat dry milk may be lower without the price support program than they would be if the program continued, but the net impact on milk prices and production would be small. Unless world demand is substantially stronger than projected or unless U.S. supplies are much larger, unsubsidized U.S. exports of products such as butter and nonfat dry milk appear unlikely. Niche markets and changes in relative values of milk components, however, may offer other U.S. dairy export opportunities.

En vertu d'une loi agricole approuvée par les États‐Unis en 1996, le régime de soutien des prix des produits laitiers devait se terminer le 31 décembre 1999. Même si les marchés laitiers américains continueraient àêtre protégés par des tarifs douaniers à l'importation et par des subventions à l'exportation, le prix plancher en place serait enlevé. Vu la situation prospective du marché, les résultats modélisés font voir que le retrait du régime de soutien des prix n'aurait que des impacts modestes sur le secteur laitier américain. Les prix de la poudre de lait écrémé seraient peut‐être plus bas que si le régime avail été maintenu, maisl'impact net sur les prix du lait et sur la production laitière serait faible. À mains que la demande mondiale n'augmente sensiblement plus que prévu ou que les stocks américains ne soient beaucoup plus importants, il est peu probable que des exportations non subventionnées de produits comme le beurre et la poudre de lait écrémé voient le jour dans le proche avenir. Toutefois, le développement de certains créneaux du marché et les changements affectant les valeurs relatives des composants laitiers pourraient se traduire par d'autres possibilitiés d'exportation pour les produits laitiers américains.
U.S. Dairy Policy and the Agreement on Agriculture in the WTO: Discussion
Authors: Stillman Richard
Published: July 2005

The views and conclusions expressed in this discussion are those of the author and not those of his institution.
Dairy Demand, Supply and Policy in Korea: Potential for International Trade
Authors: Song JooHo , Sumner Daniel A.
Published: July 2005

Korea, like other Asian countries, has relatively low per capita consumption of dairy products and rapid demand growth. Tight import controls limit imports and the internal prices of dairy products are two to three times border prices. We find that dairy product demand (so far primarily fluid milk consumption) is elastic and has been sensitive to income growth and the modernization of the Korean economy represented by increased urbanization. Policy simulations and projections indicate substantial potential for import growth in manufactured dairy products, even if the growing fluid milk market is reserved for domestic producers and domestic milk prices rise somewhat.

Comme les autres pays asiatiques, la Corée consomme relativement peu de produits laitiers par personne et fait face à une croissance rapide de la demande. Les importations sont sévèrement restreintes et les prix intérieurs de ces produits sont deux à trois fois les prix à l'importation. Nous constatons que la demande pour les produits laitiers, encore essentiellement limitée au lait de consommation, est élastique et qu'elle a réagi à la hausse des revenus et à la modernisation de l'économic coréenne, marquée par l'intensification de l'urbanisation. Des études en simulation et les projections des planificateurs font état de possibilités importantes de croissance des importations de produits laitiers transformés, bien que le marché croissant du lait de consommation demeure réservé aux producteurs du pays et que les prix intérieurs manifestent actuellement une certaine hausse.
Quota Reforms in Australian Agriculture
Authors: Alston Julian M.
Published: July 2005

This short paper reviews the Australian experience in reforming quotas on fluid milk, tobacco and laying hens. In these industries, quotas in at least some Australian states have been eliminated, but in every case the transition has entailed substantial compensation to at least some of the producers affected adversely by the change and the new policy has not always been afree market. Notably, the states having the greatest comparative advantage within Australia were the first to eliminate quotas on laying hens and fluid milk.

L'auteur passe brièvement en revue l'expérience australienne dans les processus de réforme des contingents sur le lait de consommation, sur le tabac et sur les poules de ponte. Dans ces secteurs, les contingents ont étééliminés dans au mains quelques États, mais au prix de compensations substantielles versées à un certain nombre de producteurs que les changements avaient mis en mauvaise posture et le nouveau régime n'a pas toujours fonctionné en marché libre. Il est remarquable de noter que les États australiens jouissant de plus grands avantages comparatifs par rapport aux autres ont été les premiers àéliminer le contingentement des poulaillers de ponte et du lait de consommation.
Quel prix pour la sécurite alimentaire? Une évaluation contingente suite à la crise européenne de la ≪ vache folle ≫
Authors: Latouche Karine , Rainelli Pierre , Vermersch Dominique
Published: July 2005

L'hypothèse d'une éventuelle contamination humaine par la maladie de Creutzfeldt‐Jakob, par le biais du prion de I'encéphalite spongiforme bovine (ESB), faite en 1996 par le ministre de la santé anglais a étéè l'origine d'une perte de confiance des consommateurs dans la viande de bœuf. Lew comportement en France a étéétudié a partir d'une enquête menée en 1997, auprés d'un échantillon représentatif de 700 personnes résidant dans l'agglomération de Rennes en Bretagne. L'enquête présente aux personnes interrogées un scénario contingent visant èévaluer leur consentement è payer (CAP) afin de disposer d'une viande pour laquelle tout risque de contamination par l'ESB est écarté. Un processus original de révélation des CAP a été utilisé, combinant la méthode du référendum et un système d'enchères. Le CAP moyen obtenu est relativement élevé puisqu'il atteint 22 % du prix initial de la viande. Un modéle micro‐économique visant è expliquer la valeur du CAP du consommateur pour une sécurité alimentaire totale par rapport è l'ESB est alors présenté. De cette formalisation micro‐economique découle une spécification économétrique correspondant au modele multinomial logit ordonnéè seuils connus. Parmi les variables ayant un role determinant dans le choix du CAP des consommateurs figurent notamment la confiance dans les indications géographiques et les labels.

After the British Minister of Health admitted a possible link between the BSE prion and the Creutzfeldt‐Jakob disease in 1996, consumers lost confidence in the beef sector. This paper analyses consumers behavior after the BSE crisis in France in 1997, based on a survey using a random sample of 700 people located in the area of Rennes (Bretagne). Particularly, a contingent scenario was proposed to the respondents to elicit their willingness to pay (WTP) to have beef which would not transmit CJD using a mix of the referendum method and the bidding process. The mean WTP reaches 22% and is consistent with results obtained in other studies. A microeconomic model is proposed and an econometric approach based on an ordered logit model is developed. Among the significant variables, it is interesting to note the role of stamps of quality to explains consumers'behavior. Such variables prove the interest of a transparency and tracability policy to restore the consumers confidence.
Compatibility of Government Guarantees with Flexibility in Canadian Wheat Price Pooling
Authors: Unterschultz James , Novak Frank
Published: July 2005

Financial option theory is used to evaluate Canadian Wheat Board (CWB) price pooling and associated government guarantees. Price guarantees and final payments on the pool can be viewed as special financial derivative products. Financial models are used to evaluate alternative pricing flexibility alternatives within the constraints of the CWB price pooling system and at the same time to provide a measure of the CWB dollars at risk associated with offering these contracts. Flexible pricing alternatives are incompatible with a government price guarantee that is valuable. The CWB dollar risk associated with flexible pricing could be substantial.

Les auteurs recourent à la théorie des contrats d'option pour évaluer le système de fixation de prix communs par la Commission canadienne du blé (CCB) et les garanties connexes du gouvemement. On peut considérer les prix garantis et les paiements finals du pool comme un type particulier de produits dérivés. Des modéles financiers permettent d'évaluer d'autres méthodes qui autoriseraient la fluctuation des prix dans les contraintes du systéme de pool de la CCB, mais serviraient aussi à mesurer les risques financiers de la CCB associés à la proposition de contrats. Les autres méthodes de fixation des prix sont incompatibles avec une garantie valable du gouvemement au niveau des prix. La CCB courrait le risque de penes importantes si elle adoptait une politique de variation des prix.
An Assessment of the Agricultural Trade Impact of Spain's Integration into the EU
Authors: Sanz Fernando , Gil José M.
Published: July 2005

The aim of this paper is to provide an econometric framework from which to assess the impact on Spanish agricultural trade by the entry of Spain into the European Union. This framework is based on the estimation of a gravity equation. Special attention is paid to the inclusion of dynamics in the gravity equation. To do that, the Kalman filter is used to define the antimonde, that is, the hypothetical situation that would exist without the integration of Spain into the EU. Results show that although Spain joined the EU in 1986, there existed a transition period that lasted until 1990. This result is consistent with the homogenization of agricultural intervention prices during the same period. Empirical results indicate that internal trade creation and external trade diversion are the predominant effects of integration on both imports and exports.

L'objectif de cet article est d'illustrer une approche économétrique pour évaluer l'impact de l'adhésion de l'Espagne à la Union Européenne sur le commerce agricole. La méthodologie utilisée est basée sur l'estimation des équations de gravité. Une attention spéciale est portée à la manière d'introduire des effets dynamiques dans ces équations. Sur un autre plan, et au‐delà de l'intérêt des relations dynamiques, le filtre de Kalman est utilisé pour définir l'antimonde, ou la situation hypothétique qu'il doit exister sans que le systéme d'intégration soit mis en œuvre. Les résultats obtenus permettent de confirmer que malgré l'intégration avait lieu en 1986, la période de transition a prolongé jusqu'à 1990. Ce résultat est consistent avec l'homogénéisation des prix d'intervention agricoles dans le même période. Les résultats empiriques indiquent que la création du commerce interne et la diversion du commerce exteme constituent les effets plus prédominants sur l'intégration aussi bien sur les exportations comme sur les importations.
Bayesian Model Averaging in Consumer Demand Systems with Inequality Constraints
Authors: Chua C. L , Griffiths W. E. , O'Donnell C. J
Published: July 2005

Share equations for the translog and almost ideal demand systems are estimated using Markov Chain Monte Carlo. A common prior on the elasticities and budget shares evaluated at average prices and income is used for both models. It includes equality restrictions (homogeneity, adding up and symmetry) and inequality restrictions (monotonicity and concavity). Posterior densities on the elasticities and shares are obtained; the problem of choosing between the results from the two alternative functional forms is resolved by using Bayesian model averaging. The application is to USDA data for beef, pork and poultry. Estimation of elasticities and shares, evaluated at mean prices and expenditure, is insensitive to model choice. At points away from the means, the estimates are sensitive, and model averaging has an impact.

On estime les équations de partage des systèmes translog et de demande quasi idéale par la méthode de Monte Carlo en chaînes de Markov. Ces deux modèles reposent sur une prémisse commune, celle de l'évaluation des élasticités et des pans du budget à des prix et à des revenus moyens. Les analyses supposent certaines restrictions au niveau de l'égalité (homogénéité, addition et symétrie) et de l'inégalité (monotonie et concavité). On établit la densité des élasticités et des pans a posteriori. Le calcul de la moyenne par le modèle bayesien rend le choix entre les résultats de l'une ou l'autre fonction plus facile. L'auteur a appliqué cette méthode aux données de l'USDA sur le bœuf, le porc et la volaille. L'estimation des parts et des élasticités selon des dépenses et des prix moyens est insensible au modéle utilisé. Néanmoins, elle devient sensible quand on s'éloigne des valeurs moyennes, auquel cas, le modèle employé pour calculer la moyenne a une incidence sur les résultats.
Tobit Estimation with Unknown Point of Censoring with an Application to Milk Market Participation in the Ethiopian Highlands
Authors: Holloway Garth J. , Dorfman Jeffrey H. , Ehui Simeon K.
Published: July 2005

Data augmentation is a powerful technique for estimating models with latent or missing data, but applications in agricultural economics have thus far been few. This paper showcases the technique in an application to data on milk market participation in the Ethiopian highlands. There, a key impediment to economic development is an apparently low rate of market participation. Consequently, economic interest centers on the “locations” of nonparticipants in relation to the market and their “reservation values” across covariates. These quantities are of policy interest because they provide measures of the additional inputs necessary in order for nonparticipants to enter the market. One quantity of primary interest is the minimum amount of surplus milk (the “minimum efficient scale of operations”) that the household must acquire before market participation becomes feasible. We estimate this quantity through routine application of data augmentation and Gibbs sampling applied to a random‐censored Tobit regression. Incorporating random censoring affects markedly the marketable‐surplus requirements of the household, but only slightly the covariates requirements estimates and, generally, leads to more plausible policy estimates than the estimates obtained from the zero‐censored formulation.

Augmenter le nombre de données est une technique puissante permettant d'estimer les modèles pour lesquels les données manquent ou sont latentes, mais, jusqu'à présent, on n'y a guère recouru en économie rurale. L'article que void illustre une application de cette technique aux données se rapportant à la participation des producteurs au marché laitier dans les hauts plateaux de l'Éthiopie. Le faible taux de participation apparent constitue un obstacle de taille au développemenl économique de la région. Par conséquent, pour l'économiste, il est inléressanl de savoir où les « non‐participants » se trouvent par rapport au marché et de jauger leurs « réserves » en fonction des autres variables. Les valeurs de ce genre présenlenl de l'intérêt au niveau de l'élaboration des politiques, parce qu'elles donnent une idée des intrants supplémenlaires qui convaincraient les non‐participants de faire leur entrée sur le marché. Une valeur d'un intérêt primordial est le volume minimal de lait excédentaire («échelle minimale d'efficacité») que le ménage doit acquérir avant de participer au marché. On a eslimé cette valeur en appliquant la technique d'augmentation des données de la façon habituelle et en appliquant l'échanlillonnage de Gibbs à une régression Tobit censurée au hasard. L'intégration d'une censuration aléaloire affecte de maniére appréciable le volume de lait excédentaire commercialisable dont le ménage a besoin, mais ne louche que légèrement la valeur estimative des covariables requises et, en général, débouche sur des estimations plus plausibles que celles oblenues sans censuration en ce qui concerne l'élaboration des politiques.