bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Urban Systems: A Policy Perspective
Authors: Swain H , Logan M
Published: October 2006

In some countries, enthusiastic beginnings in the planning and management of national settlement systems (or urban growth, or regional development) have run against some intractable problems. This paper points to dilemmas for research under the rationalistic paradigm that has come to dominate orthodox thinking about the policy planning process, discusses the inconvenient nature of the urban system's time constants, reviews some problems of policy implementation, and suggests shifted research directions. In the face of general ignorance about policy outcomes and public values, the policy directions that now seem appropriate are less ambitious than those of a few years ago.
Models Aiding National Settlement Policies in the USSR: A Survey
Authors: Sokolov V
Published: October 2006

This paper presents a survey of formal models used as aids in solving practical NSP management problems at different levels. The models surveyed may be conveniently classified into two groups. The first deals with population, the second describes settlement systems and solves allocation problems. The list of models presented is not exhaustive but illustrates the main principles of model design. Thus the models do not necessarily belong to a single bibliographical source, but may be combinations of similar ideas represented by different sources. To identify the source, only basic references are given.
Controlling Interregional Migration Processes of a Markovian Type
Authors: MacKinnon R D
Published: October 2006

A framework is suggested within which normative modelling strategies can be used to make simple dynamic migration models more relevant to policymakers. A job-vacancy model is explicitly linked to a migration- and population-distribution model. Some suggestions are made about the ways in which the models could be modified in order to make them more realistic. Other areas of application are also briefly indicated.
An Evaluation of Growth-Center Theory and Practice
Authors: Hansent N M
Published: October 2006

This paper examines empirical and theoretical issues associated with the growth-center approach to regional development, and argues that despite many difficulties the major themes of the growth-center literature still have relevance to regional policy. Although there has been increasing interest in analyzing the nature and significance of spontaneously growing urban places, the growth-center approach is most meaningful in the context of induced growth. There is little evidence that induced growth centers generate significant spread effects on their economically lagging hinterlands; but they can properly serve as regional centers of in-migration.

It is difficult to derive an adequate growth model from a market-oriented hierarchy of central place schemes. If one is concerned with innovations and impulses of economic change, using the central place model as a locational matrix or landscape, it should be recognized that information and innovations can be transmitted upward through the hierarchy or laterally among centers of the same level, even though the diffusion process is likely to operate in a downward direction. Recent studies by Pred, Törnqvist, and Goddard indicate that these issues may be clarified by shifting attention to organizational information flows within urban systems. Nevertheless, attempts to focus on the functioning of the ‘postindustrial’ society should not detract from the opportunities that manufacturing decentralization represents for many nonmetropolitan areas. Of course, better access within national (or even international) communications networks can be of considerable help to these areas, not only in attracting more manufacturing activity, but also in upgrading its quality. This in turn depends on the ability of people in lagging regions to take advantage of opportunities, that is, on the quality of rural human resources. The failure of most growth-center theory and practice to include explicitly human resource and manpower dimensions is at least equal to the neglect of information circulation.
An Econometric Model of Employment Growth in US Metropolitan Areas
Authors: Alperovich G , Bergsman J , Ehemann C
Published: October 2006

This paper reports on tests of hypotheses about the determinants of employment growth in US metropolitan areas. All urban employment covered by Social Security is included; the hypotheses are tested for each of forty groups of four-digit SIC industries. The units of observation are 284 areas, including all SMS As, as of 1970, plus some smaller places. The period is 1965–1970.

The two main findings are: First, ease of attracting labor is not shown to have an important influence on local employment growth. Second, access to markets is the most important factor, followed by localization economies, and—for some industrial groups—low wage rates and access to inputs; urbanization economies (measured by city size) are a negative factor for some groups.

The research is part of a larger study of the determinants of migration and employment growth.
Urban Analysis in the Regional—National Model REGINA of the French Economy
Authors: Courbis R
Published: October 2006

REGINA is a medium-term econometric forecasting model which incorporates about 8000 equations; in it, France is divided into five large regions whose rural, small-urban, and big-city sectors are treated separately. Thus the effects of urban development on regional balance and national growth, and conversely, the impact of macrourban policies, can be explored in a national economic planning context. It is intended that the model be used in the preparation of the VIIème Plan.
The Empirical Calibration and Testing of a Simulation Model of Residential Location
Authors: Anas A
Published: October 2006

This paper summarizes the results obtained from the empirical calibration of a model of residential location proposed in a previous paper. The model is compared with the short-run versions of two other models of residential location based on the microeconomic theory of locational behavior (the Herbert—Stevens model and the Senior—Wilson model). The empirical results and the testing of the rent-adjustment mechanism are discussed.
Transportation Emissions and Environmental Health: An Evaluatory Planning Methodology
Authors: Wadden R A , Farley D O , Carnow B W
Published: October 2006

A planning methodology which relates pollution emissions from transportation networks to potentially exposed human populations is described. The location of total population and hypersusceptible populations with respect to emission sources are used to compare planning alternatives. Hypersusceptible groups are defined as those with an increased health sensitivity to specific pollutants caused by transportation. High-risk zones are those defined as having both a high proportion of their population hypersusceptible to a particular pollutant and a high emission level of the pollutant. Enumeration of hypersusceptible populations in high-risk zones and the number of these zones, together with the total hypersusceptible populations contained within network corridors, the net emissions of individual pollutants, and the population-weighted mean emission levels for each pollutant for the complete study area, serve as rating indices for comparing a set of alternative transportation plans.
The Estimation of Environmental Impacts for Transport Policy Assessment
Authors: Wigan M R
Published: October 2006

The analysis of traffic and transport alternatives by means of mathematical models is well-established as an aid to design and economic assessment. The emphasis in the past has been on the traffic effects of the policies involved, and it is only recently that methods have been devised to give approximate estimates of the levels of and degree of exposure to noise, air pollution, and pedestrian interference as an essential part of the study of traffic and transport proposals. This paper covers the design and use of special models, and the collection and analysis of noise and pollution data in a form suitable for forecasting. The application of the techniques is illustrated by means of models of Coventry drawn from the Transportation Study report. One model was designed to simulate conditions in 1967, and another to simulate extreme (and unlikely) conditions in a future where congestion and pollution are both severe. The environmental impact estimation process has been integrated into the RRLTAP transportation modelling research system. The strengths and weaknesses of this approach are brought out by an illustrative application. Special attention has been paid to the different pollution estimation equations as a basis for forecasting, and the degree to which a particular choice could affect the results.
The Measurement of Mortality—Air-Pollution Relationships
Authors: Smith V K
Published: October 2006

This paper reviews past evidence on the properties of alternative specifications of the relationship between air pollution and mortality, and discusses the extent to which estimates derived from these relations are credible. Revised mortality—air-pollution equations are estimated with 1968 and 1969 data. These equations are tested for specification errors. While the results of the analysis indicate that the measured effect of air pollution on total mortality is quite stable, they do suggest that the findings of any of these studies must be viewed with caution. Air-pollution—mortality relations can only be regarded as weak approximations of a more complex underlying association.
Best-Practice Firms and Productivity Changes in the Pacific Northwest Plywood and Veneer Industry, 1960–1972: Some Regional Growth Implications
Authors: Le Heron R B
Published: October 2006

The documentary evidence of aggregate studies suggests that high rates of productivity growth in many firms and industries are accompanied by high rates of output growth and, to a lesser extent, employment growth. The productive efficiency of firms within regional components of industries, however, has not been studied empirically. This paper summarises the results of an empirical investigation of the regional-development role of best-practice firms in the Pacific Northwest plywood and veneer industry. The study examined the interrelations between growth impacts of productivity performance and output and employment change, and the relative growth impacts of high productivity, best-practice firms vis-à-vis less productive, non-best-practice firms. The findings are discussed in relation to the process of regional-growth and regional-development planning.
A Goal-Programming Model for Industrial Location Involving Environmental Considerations
Authors: Werczberger E
Published: October 2006

This paper presents an application of goal programming to the planning of industrial location in the context of air-pollution policy. Goal programming is a modification of linear programming designed to solve problems characterized by a large number of conflicting objectives. The solution is obtained by expressing all objectives as constraints and minimizing the deviation of the allocation from the respective targets and standards. If lexicographic ordering of objectives prevails, the constraints can be introduced in order of their importance.

The paper first discusses the theoretical basis for goal programming and then presents the mathematical formulation and the numerical evaluation of a hypothetical industrial-location problem. Finally, goal programming is evaluated for its implications for environmental planning.
Quantitative, Demographic, and Geographic Approaches to Internal Migration
Authors: Courgeau D
Published: October 2006

The mainly temporal viewpoint adopted by the demographer allows him to analyse internal migration either by comparing consecutive periods (epoch analysis) or by following the life span of an individual (cohort analysis). This analysis leads to models of migration that are based on Markov processes. The principally spatial viewpoint taken by the geographer enables him to see how migration affects the distribution of the population in an area (spatial-differentiation analysis), and to study the flows between zones (spatial-interaction analysis). In fact only a combined spatial and temporal approach can throw fresh light on migration analysis.
An Approach to Dynamic Regional Planning with Multiple Objectives
Authors: Roy G G
Published: October 2006

A proposal is made for the solution of multiobjective, time-dependent planning problems which are essentially discrete valued. The solution procedure, based on a particular multiobjective optimality condition (developed elsewhere), is structured as a stepwise dynamic programming problem. The detailed theory of the proposed procedure is followed by a small-scale worked example which shows the application of the method.
Catastrophe Theory and Urban Modelling: An Application to Modal Choice
Authors: Wilson A G
Published: October 2006

Some of the elementary ideas underlying catastrophe theory are reviewed and it is shown how the cusp catastrophe can be used in the theory of binary choice. A specific application to modal choice is presented and a number of conjectures are made about the wider application of the method in urban modelling.
A Multidimensional Accounting Model for Demographic and Economic Planning interactions
Authors: Schinnar A P
Published: October 2006

This paper introduces an accounting linkage designed to relate the demand for labor—generated via an open input—output Leontief-type model—to labor markets described by cohort-activity characteristics of population distributions. This linkage is shown to provide access to an articulated definition of market demand for labor and provides a basis for analyzing the dynamics of demographic mobility and growth as it applies to phased development planning. Possible conflicts between multiple, economic, and demographic goals are accommodated via a ‘goal-programming’ formulation so that the corresponding dual variables are readily available as opportunity-cost evaluators for deviations from these planning goals.
Shrinking Large-Scale Population-Projection Models by Aggregation and Decomposition
Authors: Rogers A
Published: October 2006

During the past two decades social scientists have come to model dynamic socioeconomic systems of growing size and complexity. Despite a heavy reliance on ever more sophisticated high-speed digital computers, however, computer capacity for handling such systems has not kept pace with the growing demands for more detailed information. Consequently, it is becoming ever more important to identify those aspects of a system which permit one to deal with parts of it independently from the rest or to treat relationships among particular subsystems as though they were independent of the relationships within those subsystems. These questions are, respectively, those of decomposition and aggregation, and their application toward ‘shrinking’ large-scale population projection models is the focus of this paper.
Geographical Perspectives on United States Investment in the United Kingdom
Authors: Dicken P , Lloyd P E
Published: October 2006

American direct investment in Britain has a long history, dating back to 1851. In the past twenty years, however, the magnitude of US investment in Britain has dramatically increased. Events such as the closure of the Imperial Typewriter Co. at Hull and the threatened withdrawal of Chrysler from its UK manufacturing operations have served to focus attention on the activities of US based multinationals in Britain.

Direct investment by US companies has a very considerable impact on the UK economy. American owned enterprises employ one in every fourteen workers in private enterprise manufacturing and account for more than 10% of total output. There is a high degree of sectoral concentration in this ownership pattern with the main emphasis in vehicles, electrical engineering, mechanical engineering, and the food, drink, and tobacco industries. Spatially there is a particular tendency toward concentration in the South East. In terms of net gains over time, however, Scotland has fared particularly well in attracting US companies.

Within the North West of England there is also a tendency toward sectoral and spatial concentration. The motor vehicles industry on Merseyside represents the most prominent cluster and, in a region chronically prone to serious unemployment, there is potentially a degree of vulnerability which might give legitimate cause for concern.
Ethnic and Income Housing-Occupancy Patterns of Federal Moderate-Income Housing and Federal Public Housing in Low- and Moderate-Income Neighborhoods of New York City
Authors: Forman E M S
Published: October 2006

Economic and racial—ethnic housing patterns of FHA Section 236 moderate-income and federally aided low-income public housing projects were examined in order to determine the relationships between the tenant-selection process, neighborhood racial—ethnic mix, and housing-occupancy patterns. The overall results show that in moderate-income neighborhoods federal income-admissions and integration regulations were successfully implemented regardless of the economic type of the project. In low-income neighborhoods federal income admissions and integration regulations were unsuccessfully implemented for projects of both economic types.
Entropy, Theory Construction and Spatial Analysis
Authors: Sheppard E S
Published: October 2006

The framework of Bayesian inference is proposed as a structure for unifying those highly disparate approaches to entropy modelling that have appeared in geography to date, and is used to illuminate the possibilities and shortcomings of some of these models. The inadequacy of most descriptive entropy statistics for measuring the information in a spatially-autocorrelated map is described. The contention that entropy maximization in itself provides theoretical justification for spatial models is critically evaluated. It is concluded that entropy should, first and foremost, be regarded as a technique to expand our methods of statistical inference and hypothesis testing, rather than one of theory construction.
A Reinterpretation of the ‘Attitude’ Approach to Transport-Mode Choice and an Exploratory Empirical Test
Authors: Thomas K
Published: October 2006

A theory of cognitive structure is presented which is potentially capable of providing a conceptual framework for the study of transport behaviour, and by making use of this theory and the models derived from it, problematic areas in attitude and attribute research in transportation are discussed. An exploratory empirical study is described which successfully tests some of the relationships inherent in the theory in a transport context. Significant correlations were observed between overall attitude towards use of a travel mode and the products of evaluation and belief strength summed over a short series of perceived outcomes of use of that mode. The content, strength, and associated evaluations of salient beliefs about use of a travel mode were monitored during a period of change in the conditions of the service. Predictable changes in belief structure were observed, demonstrating the sensitivity of the techniques used.
Housing Consumption Disequilibrium and Local Residential Mobility
Authors: Goodman J L
Published: October 2006

An economic theory of local residential mobility is developed and empirically examined. The theory predicts that local mobility is most likely to occur among households whose actual housing consumption deviates the most from their utility-maximizing levels and whose monetary and psychic costs of moving are least. Two separate models are used in applying the theory to data obtained from a national household survey in the USA. The inclusion of variables designed to capture the needs of families to adjust their housing adds little explanatory power compared with more conventional predictors of mobility, although the housing-consumption variables generally have plausible effects on household mobility. Not all local moves are motivated primarily by housing considerations—nearly a third of all local moves are associated with new household formation, marriage, or divorce.
A Multiterminal Network-Flow Analysis of an Unadjusted Spanish Interprovincial Migration Table
Authors: Slater P B
Published: October 2006

A 52 × 52 Spanish internal migration table for 1963 is regarded as an edge-capacity matrix of a 52-vertex network. The maximum flow and the dual minimum edge cut-sets, between all pairs of vertices, are found. Those cuts which partition the vertices nontrivially—that is, into two sets each of cardinality greater than unity—are of interest. The set in each such pair with the fewer vertices is regarded as a nodal region. It has the attractive property that fewer people migrate into (from) it, as a whole, than into (from) its node. Prominent features of Spanish internal movements are revealed through the presentation of the nodal regions that are found by means of a multiterminal analysis. Badajoz, for example, has a particularly large out-migration sphere of influence, and Vizcaya an extensive in-migration field.
Accounting for the Probable Spatial Impact of Local Activities
Authors: Tapiero C S , Barlev B Z
Published: October 2006

This paper establishes a probabilistic approach to assessing the spatial impact of a local activity. Three environmental impact probability effects are distinguished; (1) the effect associated with the facility only, for example size, (2) interaction effects of distance, and (3) the effects of a given environmental state on the population. A combination of these provides a quantitative framework for characterizing probabilistically the environmental impact of a given facility. By means of simplifying assumptions, analytical results are found. For a more practical application of this approach, simulation is required. The importance of the approach to environmental impact accounting is stressed.
The Analysis of Commuting Patterns
Authors: Ord J K , Cliff A D
Published: October 2006

If we define a commuter living in a zone i as an individual whose place of work is in some zone, j ≠ i, then clearly the proportion of commuters in i will be a function of, among other things, the size of i. In this paper, various models based upon work by Kulldorff (1955) are examined which enable estimates of the real level of commuting to be formed from such size-linked data.
Equitable Use of the Resource Base
Authors: Page T
Published: October 2006

This paper discusses the issue of intertemporal equity in terms of conservation of the resource base. Maximisation of present value is seen as a ‘dictatorship of the present’ leading to intertemporal inconsistency. The alternative perspective, that of a Rawlsian original position, suggests replication of the resource base over time as a social goal, and the need for mechanisms more active than resource reservation to work toward this objective.
The National Health
Authors: Adams J G U
Published: October 2006

Increased mobility for all and more public participation in transport planning are contradictory goals. The growth of mobility and the growth of esoteric planning technology are mutually supporting trends; they are progressively diminishing the influence which an ordinary citizen can have on the planning framework within which he lives.
Multiplant Location for Profit Maximisation
Authors: Hansen P , Thisse J-F
Published: October 2006

Since many important firms operate several plants, the problem of the choice of an optimal pattern of locations for these plants is of interest. In this paper, multiplant location without interaction is studied. It is shown that it is sufficient to consider a finite number of particular sites to obtain an optimal pattern of plants. The distribution network of the output is then analysed, taking into account the technologies of the plants. Finally, a numerical method of resolution for the multiplant location problem, with increasing returns to scale in the production, is proposed.
Sensitivity Analysis of Regional Planning Models
Authors: Dinkel J J , Kochenberger G A , Wong S-N
Published: October 2006

This paper exploits recent developments in sensitivity (postoptimal) analysis in nonlinear programming and applies them to regional planning models. In particular the geometric programming point of view is used to develop sensitivity analysis procedures for entropy-maximization and accessibility models. As a result of these developments, we analyze changes in the model parameters with respect to changes in the optimal solution without resolving the model. Several examples are used to illustrate the basic procedures and some error reducing refinements.
Office Location and the Cost of Maintaining Contact
Authors: Pye R
Published: October 2006

When an office relocates from London, its accommodation costs and salary costs decrease substantially. Some contacts must, however, be maintained with people in the capital, resulting in an increase in travel costs. Those increases are compared with accommodation and salary savings to show that the greatest net saving is usually obtained by a move to a town in the outer South East. Such moves have been very common.

Few offices would obtain greater savings by moving to the assisted areas, despite government incentives, which would have to be increased substantially to make those areas attractive. Similarly the replacement of 30% of meetings by cheap teleconferences would not alone persuade many more offices to move there.

Policies concerning many aspects of travel and communications would have to be combined before relocation to the assisted areas would be worthwhile for more than a very small minority of offices.
Optimal Zoning Systems for Spatial Interaction Models
Authors: Openshaw S
Published: October 2006

The design of zoning systems for spatial interaction models is a major problem which affects both the interpretation and acceptability of these models. This paper demonstrates that zoning-system effects on parameter values and model performance are nontrivial, and that their magnitude is far larger than was previously thought likely. An approach which is most appropriate in an applied context, where there is also the problem of poor model performance, is to identify a zoning system which will approximately optimise model performance. The paper gives details of how this may be achieved. This method is demonstrated by a series of empirical studies. Finally, there is a brief discussion of the general implications for spatial model building.
The Small-World Problem in a Spatial Context
Authors: Stoneham A K M
Published: October 2006

The small-world problem poses the question: “How many steps does it take to link any two people, selected at random?” A simulation model is built to examine this question, but focusing on the spatial side of the problem. Four aspects are investigated in detail: the general distribution of steps with parameter changes; channelling effects; the sensitivity of the overall structure to disconnection; and ghettoisation of an area. Some suggestions are made for further possible applications of the model.
The Stability of Regional Input—Output Multipliers
Authors: Conway R S
Published: October 2006

Changes in regional input—output structures are studied by analyzing the temporal stability of income and output multipliers derived from the Washington State input—output tables for 1963, 1967, and 1972. One conclusion is that for impact analysis, as it is most commonly practiced, the instability of multipliers over time appears to be a minor problem. This judgment is based upon a comparison of forecasting errors in impact studies due to temporal changes in multipliers with forecasting errors arising from other aspects of the impact estimating procedure. The implication is that regional analysts should reassess the commonly felt need to update tables on a regular basis.
On the Formation of Travel Demand Models and Economic Evaluation Measures of User Benefit
Authors: Williams H C W L
Published: October 2006

This paper examines a variety of issues within the context of two main themes: the formation of travel demand models and economic evaluation measures which are mutually consistent within a theory of rational choice; and a consideration of the structure of models which are representations of the trip decision process over several dimensions: location, mode, and route. Random utility theory is invoked to explore both the role and properties of composite costs or index prices in the ‘recursive’ approach to the structuring of travel choice models, and their significance in the economic evaluation problem. It is shown that the specification of these costs must be made very precisely, with respect to the demand model form chosen, in order to retain the underlying assumption that the traveller is an optimal decisionmaker. It is argued that the structure of ‘simultaneous’ models currently in use is inconsistent with the form of utility function assumed to generate those models. Furthermore, it is shown that the ‘simultaneous’ and ‘recursive’ forms are special cases of a more general choice model structure which takes specific account of correlation or ‘commonality’ of trip attributes.

A number of applications are discussed in which consistent demand models and perceived user benefit measures are constructed. These include the formation of strategic transport planning models and of models for mixed-mode, multimode, and multiroute systems. The formalism allows definitive answers to be given to a number of problems of current interest in transportation planning, which have been incorrectly or incompletely treated.
Multiple-Criteria Optimization: A More General Approach
Authors: Eastin R V
Published: October 2006

An earlier article in this journal (Roy, 1974) explored an alternative multiple-criteria optimization condition in which relative goal satisfaction takes lexicographic priority over absolute goal achievement. The present paper attempts to clarify the implications of such an approach and to show that it can be a special case of a more general, fairly standard utility maximization model.
Novel and Eccentric … But Valuable? Some Responses to Richardson
Authors: Johnston R J
Published: October 2006

A brief reply to some of the points raised by Richardson in the previous paper.
An Eco—Demographic Accounting-Type Multiplier Analysis of Hungary
Authors: Schinnar A P
Published: October 2006

This paper develops a multiplier interpretation and analysis for the accounting linkage of demographic and economic variables recently proposed in Schinnar (1976a). The various components of the model are illustrated with an application to the system of Hungarian accounts of 1960–1961. This application reveals spectral properties of invariance for the demographic distribution which is conjectured to be associated with stable economies and provides for a new approach to international comparative studies.
Entropy Maximization and Geometric Programming
Authors: Dinkel J J , Kochenberger G A , Wong S-N
Published: October 2006

This paper shows the equivalence of entropy-maximization models to geometric programs. As a result we derive a dual geometric program which consists of the minimization of an unconstrained convex function. We develop the necessary duality equivalencies between the two dual programs and show the computational attractiveness of our approach. We also develop some characterizations of the optimal solution of the entropy model which have important implications with regard to postoptimal or sensitivity analysis.
A Method of Examining and Evaluating the Impact of Major Retail Developments upon Existing Shops and Their Users
Authors: Guy C M
Published: October 2006

This paper presents a method of examining the impact of shop closures, brought on by intensified competition from large new retail developments, upon consumers. The method is illustrated by an analysis of the hypothetical effects of a hypermarket upon shops and consumers in the Reading area. Details of shop closures are derived from a simulation model, and the effects of these closures upon consumers are expressed through indices of ‘discomfiture’ and ‘loss in accessibility’. It is shown that the loss in accessibility to local shops could be widespread, but in almost all parts of the area it is only slight in importance. Further applications of, and improvements in, these methods are suggested.
A Proposed Definition of Traffic Flow in Continuous Transportation Models
Authors: Puu T
Published: October 2006

The paper deals with the problem of how to define traffic flow in a continuous transportation model. A hydrodynamic analogy with continuously distributed sources and sinks, where a continuum of vector fields represents the communication system, is used. Traffic is defined as an integral of the moduli of all these vector fields. The definition is seen to provide for conservation of traffic. The measure is compared to those obtained by counting ‘cordon crossings’. It is seen that a measure obtained in this way agrees with the one proposed if the cordon crossings are weighted by the reciprocals of the cosines of the incidence angle.
Land-Use Plan Design—Quadratic Assignment and Central-Facility Models
Authors: Hopkins L D
Published: October 2006

Models for designing suburban land-use plans are evaluated with respect to the same large well-defined test problem. This evaluation—including quality of solutions obtained, cost of search, validity of representation, and generality—indicates that central-facility models are likely to be more useful than quadratic assignment models for the design of suburban land-use plans at the scale considered. These results emphasize the importance of the evaluation of models both with respect to representations and with respect to search procedures.
Air Pollution and Vegetation Damage Functions
Authors: Liu B-C , Yu E S H
Published: October 2006

The primary objective of this paper is to review critically the current state of research in the field of air pollution and its effect on vegetation and to derive, through existing data and documentation, a set of integrated economic damage functions of air pollution on various kinds of vegetation, for the purpose of prediction.

Economic damage functions of vegetation were estimated via a stepwise least-squares regression method by relating economic losses of a variety of crops to air pollution and climatological variables. The crops and agricultural products selected included corn grain, soybean, cotton, root vegetables, other vegetables, nursery products, flowers, trees, field crops, and fruit and nuts.

By utilizing the ‘average’ economic damage functions derived in this study, the changes in crop losses brought about by changes in the pollution or climatological variables can be predicted.
Facility Size versus Distance Travelled: Urban Services and the Fold Catastrophe
Authors: Poston T , Wilson A G
Published: October 2006

The relationship is investigated between facility size and distance travelled to reach facilities. A model is presented of the optimum facility size in relation to size benefits and travel costs. The dynamics of change turn out to be described by the fold catastrophe. The behaviour characterised by the model is analysed in relation to various delay conventions. The implications for the conventional shopping model are explored and an alternative model is presented.
Optimization Model for a Regional System of Solid-Waste and Wastewater Disposal Which Considers Legal Pollution Standards
Authors: Böttcher H , Rembold G H
Published: October 2006

This paper describes an operations research procedure based on the theory of graphs. It serves to determine optimal locations for the facilities of a regional system of solid-waste and wastewater disposals, with consideration of transportation costs, processing costs, and pollution standards. In the literature, planning problems of this kind are solved by means of combined, binary, linear optimization algorithms. The procedure presented here is based on a branch-and-bound method and a flow-graph algorithm. Within this approach it is possible to integrate explicitly equipment such as incinerators, or composting plants, or sewage treatment plants, where quantity reducing processes occur.
Homeownership Cost Trends
Authors: Palm R I
Published: October 2006

House price trends for San Francisco Bay area neighborhoods are only partially explained by the set of variables commonly used to assess house price levels. It is likely that such nonmarket factors as local building restrictions, differential mortgage financing policies, and real-estate agent behavior contribute to the relative inability of the cross-sectional model to predict change. In addition, the relationship of independent variables to price change shows great variation among different housing submarkets, casting doubt on the assumption that elasticities derived by a hedonic study for the metropolitan area as a whole represent the utility functions of buyers within more limited housing submarkets.
An Interpretation of the Journey-to-Work on Merseyside Using Entropy-Maximising Methods
Authors: Thomas R W
Published: October 2006

The twin objectives of this study are first, to establish an unbiased statistical framework for interpreting the errors in prediction associated with Wilson's entropy-maximising transportation model and second, to apply the framework to the interpretation of journey-to-work patterns on Merseyside in 1966. The statistical framework centres on various decompositions of the index of information gain, while the empirical work highlights some anomalous trip-making behaviour that seems to be a result of public planning decisions prior to 1966.
A Bracketing Approach for Estimating Regional Economic Impact Multipliers and a Procedure for Assessing Their Accuracy
Authors: Isserman A M J
Published: October 2006

There has been a resurgence in the use of impact multipliers of the economic base type in the United States, particularly in response to recent legislation and judicial decisions which require socioeconomic as well as environmental impact analyses. This paper presents a bracketing approach whereby upper and lower bounds of the multiplier are estimated. It also presents and applies a procedure that can be used to test the accuracy of alternative methods for estimating economic base multipliers.
Traffic Restraint as a Transport Planning Policy 3: The Effects on Different Users
Authors: Wigan M R
Published: October 2006

Models used to simulate traffic flow and travel demand normally represent traveller behaviour by a single, averaged, group responding to cost, time, and distance changes. For systematic traffic-management measures, such as those of traffic restraint, it is desirable to examine shifts of benefits and costs between different groups of travellers. This requires equilibrium models of two or more types of traveller, each of which responds differently to charges or to travel-time changes. An appropriate technique has been developed to deal with this question, and results are presented in terms of two situations where benefit and cost transfers could arise: The effect of private parking places, and the differential impacts of road pricing.
The Limits of the Plannable: Stability and Complexity in Planning and Planned Systems
Authors: Chadwick G F
Published: October 2006

The paper considers work by Gardner and Ashby on the relationship between the connectivity of large systems and their stability, which suggests that all large complex dynamic systems will have a critical level of connectance beyond which they will go suddenly unstable. Further evidence by May on ecological systems supports this view. Reliability in systems, that is maintenance of stability of critical values over long periods of time, is held by Ashby to flow from such systems not being fully joined or connected.

It is suggested that these considerations must apply also to attempts to plan and control the future of socioeconomic systems, both in relation to the planned system itself, and to the planning system which tries to invoke requisite variety to control the planned system. Stable systems in planning are thus seen as small, probably subsystemic in nature, not fully-joined, and hence hierarchical in structure. ‘Central’ planning results in instability because of size and complexity of control systems needed, and ‘equality’ is not a sustainable concept, as it requires or implies full connectedness. Finally, three kinds of system situations are put forward as representing gradations of stability and thus of ‘plannability’ or design possibility. These situations tend to show the limits of the plannable.
The Spatial Context of the Small-World Problem
Authors: Andrews H F
Published: October 2006

Simulating the small-world problem from the conventional viewpoint of a stochastic process operating over a deterministic space is questioned. For a variety of microsocial phenomena, it is suggested that a more appropriate strategy may be to conceive the process in terms of percolation models rather than generalized diffusion models. The distinctions between the two are described and some salient characteristics of percolation processes are briefly reviewed.
The Concept of Market Components and the Spatial Organization of Periodic Markets
Authors: Brown J R , Harvey M E
Published: October 2006

This paper develops the concept of market components and discusses the potential advantages of such a concept for studying different market systems including periodic and permanent markets. The assignment algorithm and the bottleneck assignment algorithm are modified and used to test this concept; the data employed are for periodic market systems in Southern Morocco.
Firms and Innovation Diffusion: Examples from Banking
Authors: Malecki E J
Published: October 2006

The diffusion of innovations used by firms themselves and those marketed to consumers are considered within a single framework based on the firm. This framework is represented by a general model which balances innovative and aggressive behavior, common to small firms, against the ability to bear the cost and risk of innovation adoption more common to large firms. A similar model for city-size diffusion patterns, based on the fact that large cities are risk-minimizing locations, contrasts with traditional hierarchical models which assume that large cities are usually the sites of first adoption. Examples of two innovations in the American banking industry were analyzed to test the models. The results suggest that traditional strict size-ordered models for firms and urban systems are not always appropriate, especially for innovations by firms.
Pollution, Property Value, and Air Quality Control Strategies
Authors: Bednarz R
Published: October 2006

The housing stock of Chicago is divided into several groups based on the race and income of the residents in the housing. It is shown that the relationship between air pollution intensity and property values varies greatly from group to group. The ramifications of these findings for the interpretation of similar studies by other researchers are discussed in light of this conclusion.
Some Comments on Sherratt's Principle
Authors: Vaughan R
Published: October 2006

The term ‘density of dwellings' used by geographers is conceptually different to the term ‘probability density of dwellings' used by statisticians. In Cartesian coordinates the numerical values only differ by a scaling constant, but in polar coordinates this is not the case. To help clear up the resulting confusion, this paper attempts to show the relation between the two concepts.
On Traffic Equilibrium, Congestion Tolls, and the Allocation of Transportation Capacity in a Congested Urban Area
Authors: Puu T
Published: October 2006

In a continuous transportation model with a scalar velocity field, dependent on the ratio of traffic to transportation capacity, and with trips generated by a gravity or entropy hypothesis, the equilibrium traffic distribution is derived along with the optimal capacity distribution. Possible improvements by introducing congestion tolls are discussed. It is seen that capacity should be distributed in proportion to traffic, so that velocity of transfer is constant, trips go along straight lines, and traffic is minimized. This implies that capacity is concentrated to the central parts. Congestion tolls are superfluous when capacity is optimally allocated.
Prior Information in Spatial Analysis
Authors: Odland J
Published: October 2006

Formal statistical procedures which incorporate prior, or nonsample, information can be used to enlarge the theoretical and empirical content of analytical models, and can be widely applied to adapt general statistical procedures for special investigative situations which arise in the analysis of spatial data. A class of methods which operate by modifying the parameter space of general statistical models in accordance with prior information is presented in this paper. The prior information can be obtained from theoretical or empirical sources, and the models can be given Bayesian as well as non-Bayesian interpretations. The utility of the methods is demonstrated by applying them to estimate parameters for urban-population-density functions. The resulting estimates incorporate nonsample information on total populations as well as sample information on subarea densities. The logic of the population-distribution model is also extended to take account of possible growth processes by incorporating prior information derived from earlier distributions and by incorporating the characteristics of possible growth processes.
Managing Wilderness Travel: A Markov-Based Linear Programming Model
Authors: deBettencourt J S , Peterson G L , Wang Pai Kang
Published: October 2006

Overnight travel by watercraft in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area is described as a discrete parameter Markov chain. A simple normative model is constructed of the system as a steady state process in terms of constant daily entry rates and expected daily populations in interior zones. By means of linear programming, and given constraints on entry rates and zone average daily populations, optimal entry quotas are determined for each of thirty-three entry points. The quotas thus derived provided the basis for an actual control program implemented in 1976. Information pertaining to the validity of the application is presented and the use of the model in policy formulation is described.
Energy-Price Effects on Metropolitan Spatial Structure and Form
Authors: Romanos M C
Published: October 2006

This paper is concerned with possible changes in the metropolitan structure and form under conditions of energy-conservation efforts by households and firms. Across-the-board increases in energy prices, combined with the on-going process of employment relocation from the central city to the suburban ring of metropolitan areas, could lead to major, and potentially more energy-conserving spatial reorganizations. By use of a utility analysis of the residential location decision by households, this reorganization is shown to take the form of a multinucleated urban system with a number of strong urban nuclei playing rhe role of employment centers for the suburban residential area surrounding them.
Changes in the Size Distribution of Settlements in England and Wales, 1801–1968
Authors: Cliff A D , Robson B T
Published: October 2006

Changes over time in the distribution of settlement sizes in England and Wales are examined by using two data sets: Town population sizes 1801–1911 and the population size of various local government units in 1968. The Cohen and Whitworth random partitioning models are applied to these data. Standard normal deviates show the increasing population concentration in large urban areas during the 19th century and the reversal of this trend in the 20th century, leading to the suggestion of maximum entropy in 1968. A comparison of the Cohen and the rank–size models suggests the greater utility of the former once the primate city is excluded from consideration. The analysis highlights the timing of critical changes in the evolution of the settlement pattern, particularly the reversal of trend in 1901.