bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Rehabilitation in Complex Political Emergencies: Is Rebuilding Civil Society the Answer?
Authors: Harvey Paul
Published: March 2003

The paper examines the challenge of rehabilitation from complex political emergencies (CPEs) and identifies a strategy that is characterised as a civil society rebuilding approach. It focuses on Somalia and a case study of a CARE project that aims to build the capacity of local NGOs. The paper argues that civil society in CPEs is simultaneously being undermined and contested by warring parties and emerging after state collapse. The scope of the paper is limited to one case study and that case study examines only a single aspect of civil society: national and international NGOs. The paper therefore presents tentative and preliminary results based on limited research. However, in reviewing the literature and presenting a way of approaching the subject, it aims to suggest a starting‐point for developing a theoretical framework for such research. The paper finds that international agencies have tended to focus on civil society institutions simply as conduits for aid money and that this has tended to create organisations which lack downward accountability, are dependent on donors and are not addressing the wider roles for civil society envisaged in the approach. Rebuilding civil society does hold out the promise of giving non‐military interests a stronger voice and starting a process of changing the aid delivery culture. Achieving these objectives, however, will be a slow and largely indigenous process and there is a need for lowered expectations about what outside assistance can achieve
Making Exchange Entitlements Operational: The Food Economy Approach to Famine Prediction and the RiskMap Computer Program
Authors: Seaman John
Published: March 2003

The effect of production failure or some other shock on household income and food supply depends upon: (a) the pattern of household income, and (b) its ability to compensate for any deficit which may have occurred, for example, by the sale of assets or finding additional paid employment. The corollary is that the prediction of the likely effect of some event on the future state of the economy or food supply of a population of households requires an understanding of the economy of the households concerned and the economic context to which these relate. This paper describes an attempt to develop an approach to prediction using a dynamic model of economy based on quantitative descriptions of household economy obtained by systematic rapid field‐work and summarises the experience of the use of this approach to date.
The Nigerian Capital Market: The First Three Decades of Operation, 1961–90
Authors: Yohannes Lulseged G.
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the structure, evolution and performance of the Nigerian capital market. The number and branches of financial institutions increased significantly since its inception in 1960. So also did the listed companies on the Nigerian Stock Exchange market. Some of the factors responsible for the increase are the indigenization programmes, various economic reforms and government imposition on banks to invest a significant portion of their reserve capital in priority sectors. However, the increase is only in naira terms since a rapidly depreciating naira pushed share prices lower in dollar terms. The pattern of growth is, therefore, far from impressive when compared with other emerging markets. In recent years, a combination of new listings, manifested by privatization and commercialization of state owned firms, as well as higher prices increased total market capitalization. Investor optimism, regulatory and tax benefits have contributed. The naira‐based performance is misleading, however, since the dollar‐based performance shows a decline rather than an increase. One endemic problem seems to be market liquidity. Using liquidity as a measure of stock market development, therefore, it seems that the Nigerian stock market is illiquid and that it has contributed very little to the growth of the Nigerian economy.

Le document examine la structure, l’évolution et le comportement du marché des capitaux au Nigeria. Depuis la mise en place de ce marché en 1960, les institutions financières et les succursales se sont multipliées; il en est de même pour les entreprises cotées à la Bourse nigériane. Parmi les facteurs sous‐jacents à cette expansion figurent les programmes d’indigénisation, les réformes économiques et l’exigence faite aux banques par le gouvernement d’investir une importante fraction de leurs réserves dans les secteurs prioritaires de l’économie. Toutefois, l’expansion n’est réelle qu’en termes de nairas, les cours en dollars des actions évoluant à la baisse sous l’effet d’une rapide dépréciation de la monnaie locale. Le schéma d’expansion du marché nigérian n’est donc guère impressionnant par rapport à celui des autres marchés émergents. Ces dernières années, les nouvelles inscriptions à la cote – résultat des privatisations et d’une gestion commerciale des sociétés d’Etat – se sont conjuguées à une hausse des cours, augmentant la capitalisation totale du marché. Au nombre des autres facteurs figurent l’optimisme des investisseurs ainsi que les avantages réglementaires et fiscaux. Il convient néanmoins de souligner que les résultats exprimés en nairas sont trompeurs, les résultats en dollars dénotant un recul plutôt qu’une progression. L’une des difficultés endémiques du marché nigérian semble liée à sa liquidité. A en juger par la liquidité comme mesure de l’expansion des marchés boursiers, il apparaît que le marché boursier nigérian est illiquide et contribue très peu à la croissance de l’économie nigériane.
Are Municipal Electricity Distribution Utilities Natural Monopolies?
Authors: Filippini Massimo
Published: March 2003

The purpose of this study is to analyse the cost structure of the Swiss electricity distribution utilities in order to assess economies of scale and density and the desirability of competition in the distribution of electric power. A translog cost function was estimated using panel data for a sample of 39 municipal utilities over the period 1988–1991. The results indicate the existence of economies of density for most output levels and the existence of economies of scale only for small and medium‐sized electric utilities. The empirical evidence suggests that franchised monopolies, rather than side‐by‐side competition, is the most efficient form of production organization in the electric power distribution industry. Further, the majority of the utilities analysed do not operate at an optimal service territory size. Therefore, the consolidation of small utilities whose service territories are adjacent is likely to reduce costs.
Estimation des Économies D'échelle et de gamme dans de petites coopératives de services financiers: le cas des caisses populaires acadiennes
Authors: Leclerc A. , Fortin M. , Thivierge C.
Published: March 2003

This study uses accounting data stemming from 80 credit unions affiliated to the “Fédération des caisses populaires acadiennes” to estimate a multi‐product translog cost function with the aim to test for the presence of scale and scope economies. The cost model relies on the production approach and the financial services are gathered in four categories of products. The model is completed by three inputs and one control variable, the latter being used to capture the heterogeneity of costs arising from the average wealth of membership. Since the estimated output elasticity of the total cost, 0.89, is statistically less than one, the models detect quite important scale economies. As to scope economies, they are present but the coefficients are weakly significant.
Social‐Self‐Interest
Authors: ASH Colin
Published: March 2003

This paper is about rational sociality. Retaining rational choice as its basic framework, it aims to enrich it by taking seriously a well‐established cultural, social and psychological phenomenon: that some inter‐personal relationships have intrinsic value. These are termed primary. Utility maximisation includes the binary choice to enter or not to enter a primary relationship: this on the one hand has a direct impact on utility, and on the other imposes restrictions on consumption choices. The model encompasses standard economic choice theory as a special case, while explicitly recognising that self‐interested agents make choices that are sometimes group dependent. The broad scope of this approach is illustrated by a number of extensions and applications, some of which lead to distinctly unorthodox conclusions.
The German Charitable Welfare System: A Criticism from the Viewpoint of Ordnungspolitik
Authors: Meyer Dirk
Published: March 2003

Charitable social welfare care constitutes the market‐leader in the provision of social services. Neocorporatist structures have resulted in the latter's exceptional situation. They are characterized by a preferential position in certain circumstances compared to commercial suppliers, cartel agreements which enjoy partial legal legitimacy, financial dependence on the state, as well as a say in social policy planning. Criticism from the viewpoint of Ordnungspolitik maintains a failure of internal and external controls, and above all of competitive structures. Possible starting points for a reform may be founded on the guarantee of equal opportunities and of non‐discrimination against commercial suppliers. The governmental monopsonistic power should be removed by a decentralization of bargaining. In addition to this, the position of those having a right to such services needs to be strengthened by greater individual assistance combined with monetary allocations.
Social Movements and Development In Quebec: The Experience of the Desjardins Movement
Authors: Levasseur Roger , Rousseau Yvan
Published: March 2003

Along with the other sectors of the banking industry over the last two decades, the savings and credit cooperatives have been affected by deep currents which are radically changing their form and structure. In Quebec, the Desjardins movement is at present involved in a fundamental reform of the organizational structures which have characterized its growth since the period between the two world wars. This article deals with the major transformations which the Desjardins movement experienced, from the creation of the first caisse populaire in 1900 to the situation existing at the end of the twentieth century. Using an approach at the junction of history and sociology, it considers the Desjardins movement as one of the components of what Alain Touraine calls a ‘social development movement’. We aim to show that the present changes affecting the savings and credit cooperation fall within the long‐term historical trends, while at the same time reflecting new phenomena. We shall point out the most significant aspects of these new developments.
Competition And Its Regulation: Key Issues
Authors: Cook P.
Published: March 2003

This article examines the role of competition policy in developing countries. The leading international development agencies, such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank, have proclaimed their support for private sector–led development as the best strategy for reducing poverty. The benefits of private sector development are dependent on ensuring competitive market conditions, which are often absent in developing countries. However, theoretical notions of competition and the ways in which it is perceived to work vary widely and have implications for the type of competition policy that is to be implemented. Competition laws are widespread in industrialized countries but are only just beginning to be introduced in developing countries. The article examines some of the implications of applying competition policy in developing countries when account is taken of different theoretical perspectives, and of the structural and institutional differences between industrialized and developing countries.
Regulating Meaning, Appropriating Nature: The Codification of California Organic Agriculture
Authors: Guthman Julie
Published: March 2003

In California, conventional agro‐food firms are beginning to appropriate the most lucrative aspects of organic food provision and to abandon the agronomic and marketing practices associated with organic agriculture's oppositional origins. Echoing the uneasy and complex dialectic between nature and capital in the American West, organic farming is becoming more akin to farming off of nature's image, as the idiom of a “purer” nature is deployed to sell what is increasingly commodified nature. The direction of organic agriculture in California can be understood as reflecting global trends in agro‐food provision and regulation, but it is also uniquely grounded in the context of California's regional history: on the one hand, a product of the counterculture, bolstered by a strong climate of environmental regulation; on the other hand, a legacy of California's exceptional agriculture, characterized in part by the dominance of growers' organizations and a focus on high‐value specialty crops. This paper also discusses three ways in which the political construction of the meaning of “organic” and its institutionalization in regulatory agencies such as private certification organizations have facilitated both the proliferation of agribusiness entrants and their adoption of questionably sustainable practices: first, certification agencies have their own institutional logic and are most beholden to their client‐growers; second, regulation requires the definition of enforceable standards out of complicated ecological, economic, and even sociocultural concerns; third, the certification process, by conferring a legal right to market food as organic, has created distinct incentives that shape participation in the sector.
South Africa's Current Transition in Temporal and Spatial Context
Authors: Leater Alan , Nel Etienne , Binns Tony
Published: March 2003

This article analyses South Africa’s current postapartheid transition in the light of earlier transformations of its social and economic order. The first of these prior transformations is the abolition of slavery and the shift to liberal capitalism, which took place in the early nineteenth century. The second is the rapid industrialization of the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Each of these transformations, as well as the current transition, is explained as being partly the outcome of a broad shift in capitalist practice, innovated in the metropoles of the global economy. Due to South Africa’s situation within global economic networks, each of these shifts, at different times, raised the threat of a dislocation in South Africa’s prevailing social order. However, each prior transformation and, it will be argued, the current transition, has been ‘managed’ by established elites so as to ensure minimal change to the overall distribution of privilege. This conservative ‘management’ of shifts in capitalist practice, it is suggested, has been facilitated through South African elites’ historic engagement with cultural discourses circulating across a global terrain. In this article then, contemporary South Africa is located within both material and discursive networks which have historically influenced the country’s distribution of privilege.
The General Law of US Capitalist Accumulation: Contingent Work and the Working Class
Authors: Merrifield Andy
Published: March 2003

For several years now, there has been a minor rekindling of interest in the ideas of Karl Marx, hailed in the New Yorker as “the next big thinker.” Like other articles supposedly professing sympathy with Marx, this exhibits a common misconception. It is also underwritten with the following revisionism: Given that the agents of social change–the “modern working class”–are shrinking drastically and disappearing fast, Marx’s revolutionary hopes are doomed. Nowonly a residual Marx prevails, a Marx‐lite, a mere analyzer of the defects of bourgeois society. This article seeks to contest these distortions. It brings Marx to bear on the present US context, positing him as an apt economic critic and telling political prophet of millennial America. It addresses standard clichÃ©s about his class definition and emphasizes how Marx really left us with a flexible, dialectical theory, hinging on the process of capital accumulation. From the standpoint of accumulation dynamics, we can justifiably argue that the working class is still growing, not shrinking in numbers. From this perspective, too, we might better comprehend the whole phenomenon of corporate downsizing and “contingent work” within the remit of Marx’s different forms of relative surplus populations. The attendant questions about working class organization and politics are dealt with in the paper’s conclusion, which illustrates how Marxian‐style resistance is already beginning to take hold in the United States.
The New Social Contract for Science: Accountability, Relevance,and Value in US and UK Science and Research Policy
Authors: Demeritt David
Published: March 2003

This paper considers recent changes in US and UK science policy designed to make academic research more publicly accountable and relevant. To this end, relations between public sector funding bodies academic researchers, andthe wider public are being reorganized in terms of customer‐contractor relations, though cultural and institutional differences mean these broad trends have produced different outcomes in the US and UK to which geographers will have to adapt. New forms of market based, customer accountability are restructuring the context of scientific research and reorienting long standing academic norms and values. Though these changes are designed to make academic research more responsive to the demands of various paying customers, the paper suggests the importance of reflexivity about the interests and identity involved.
NAFTA's Labor Side Agreement and International Labor Solidarity
Authors: Compa Lance
Published: March 2003

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its supplemental labor pact, the North American Agreement on Labor Cooperation (NAALC) reflect the uneven advances of labor rights advocacy in connection with international trade. NAFTA provides extensive rights and protections for multinational firms and investors in such areas as intellectual property rights and investment guarantees. The NAALC only partially addresses labor rights and labor conditions, but within its limits it has shown itself to be a viable tool for cross‐border solidarity among key actors in the trade union, human rights, and allied movements. The NAALC's principles and complaint mechanisms create new space for advocates to build coalitions and take concrete action to articulate challenges to the status quo and advance workers' interests. Cooperation, consultation, and collaboration among social actors have brought a qualitative change to transnational labor rights networks in North America.
No Grounds for Conversation: The Regional Construction of Fundamental Difference between Mormonism and Socialism
Authors: Yorgason Ethan
Published: March 2003

This paper explores a missed opportunity for serious conversation or even alliance between some adherents of socialism and Mormonism. The Americanization of Mormons and Utah around 100 years ago opened Mormons up to broader alliances than had been possible during most of the 19th century. A few Mormons and socialists thought that intersections between the two groups’ egalitarian ideologies could be fruitfully explored. However, this potential evaporated as Mormonism and socialism were culturally constructed as antithetical within regional life. Through this case, the paper comments on alliance‐building strategies within radical politics and the practice of critical human geography.
Orally transmitted texts of the minorities in East and Southeast Asia: Suggestions for research across borders
Authors: Hansson Inga‐Lill
Published: March 2003

The rich body of orally transmitted texts kept alive by the people of the border country of Southwest China, both religious and secular provides a valuable source of information that has barely been tapped. The author believes that this time consuming task is well worth the effort. Even an exploratory review of selected parts of texts which focus on matters such as: how identity is constructed; what observations are made in the course of a journey to buy salt; general flora and fauna; and migration have more to tell us than is conveyed by the story. The possible rewards for those prepared to engage in textual analysis are likely to be considerable.
Ocean liner shipping services: corporate restructuring and port selection/competition
Authors: Rimmer Peter J.
Published: March 2003

An examination is made of the nature of corporate restructuring among liner shipping companies to meet the needs of producers for logistic services within the Asia‐Pacific Economic Region. This task is undertaken by detailing the development of the global alliances forged in 1996. Then their impact on port selection and competition within the Asia‐Pacific Economic Region is studied with particular reference to the Trans‐Pacific trade. As the composition of these alliances has already changed by mergers their likely effect on port destinies is considered.
R. Gerard Ward: quintessential Pacific geographer
Authors: Bedford Richard , Overton John
Published: March 2003

In December 1998 Professor R. Gerard Ward retired after 27 years as Professor of Geography in the Research School of Pacific and Asian Studies at the Australian National University. Ward’s contributions to his discipline, the social sciences, and the discourses about development in the Pacific region have been very considerable. This paper reviews some of the achievements of one of the twentieth century’s eminent Pacific geographers. After establishing his academic roots in the Department of Geography at the University of Auckland in the 1950s, we outline the major clusters of his writing on land use and land tenure, population dynamics and urbanisation, Pacific history and prehistory, Pacific development issues, informal markets, transport systems and tele‐cost worlds. The paper concludes with an assessment of three unusual features of Ward’s writing: the breadth of his interests, the range of scales he felt comfortable working at, and the innovative nature of ideas introduced into debates about Pacific development. A comprehensive list of Ward’s publications is attached to this paper.
Tourism
Authors: Pearce Douglas
Published: March 2003

The development of tourism in New Zealand during the 1990s reflects an intensification of many of the trends that were beginning to emerge in the latter part of the preceding decade, notably in terms of growth and change. The environment for tourism in the 1990s, however, was more fluid and challenging than it had been earlier. Growth continued, despite some major perturbations due to such factors as the Asian economic crisis. The industry proved its resilience and ability to adapt to changing conditions, institutional restructuring occurred and tourism in New Zealand generally became more diverse and complex. Increasing attention, but not much action, was directed at some of the externalities that the growth of tourism was generating.
Arrested growth and urban sustainability in the Asia Pacific
Authors: Marcotullio Peter J.
Published: March 2003

City managers throughout the Asia Pacific region are turning to the concept of sustainability in order to guide urban growth. This research note reviews the dominant contemporary urban and regional planning concepts promoted during the last few decades, shows how the financial crises challenged this mode of thinking and led to the adoption of sustainable urban development policies.
Inequality in China at the End of The 1980s: Locational Aspects and Household Characteristics
Authors: Gustafsson Björn , Shi Li
Published: March 2003

Income inequality in China at the household level is assessed by taking into account differences in needs between households and by using individuals as the unit of analysis. Inequality in China as a whole is not particularly low, largely for locational reasons. The urban — rural gap in average income is very important and very little of it can be attributed to household characteristics. Inequality is also due to differences in mean income between coastal China, central China and western China. A considerable number of characteristics measured at the household level are found to affect income. There are, however, some segments of Chinese society in which income is quite equally distributed.
Economic Development in Asian Countries, and the Effectof Trade in Asia on Employment and Wages in Japan
Authors: Tachibanaki Toshiaki , Morikawa Masayuki , Nishimura Taro
Published: March 2003

There is a controversy in the USA and several European countries on whether or not an increase in imports in manufacturing goods from low‐wage developing countries has major effects on employment and wages in industrialized countries. This paper examines the issue for Japanese imports, paying a particular attention to the effect of manufacturing imports from Asian countries on employment and wages in Japan. It is found that the effect has not been large to date, but that there could be negative effects on employment and, in particular, wages if imports from China and India were to increase substantially.
Bilateral Trade in the Asia‐Pacific: A Case Study for Australia, USA, Japan and Singapore
Authors: Tongzon Jose L. , Felmingham Bruce S.
Published: March 2003

This analysis of bilateral trade involves four Asia‐Pacific nations (USA, Japan, Singapore and Australia) on a quarterly data set 1977 to 1994. The reduced‐form model applied here derives from a structure which accommodates income, real exchange rate and real‐balance effects. We find that bilateral balances between these countries are not cointegrated with some potential determinants, in particular real exchange rates. In the short run, appropriately defined, we find that Singapore’s trade with the USA and Japan is influenced by real exchange rates; Australian‐Japanese and Australian‐US trade is influenced by real income and real‐cash‐balance effects but not real exchange rates while USA‐Japanese bilateral trade is influenced only by real‐cash‐balance effects. The general conclusion is that real exchange rates have only limited effects on these selected Asia‐Pacific bilateral trading patterns, while real‐balance and income effects have a greater impact over the short run.
Economic Development and Environmental Quality: Evidence from Taiwan
Authors: Wu Pei‐Ing
Published: March 2003

The relationship between economic growth and environmental quality is identified for Taiwan. The question is investigated by using a set of pooling data on per‐capita income and selected major environmental quality variables as well as an aggregated environmental quality indicator constructed by a hedonic price approach. The results have indicated that different environmental indicators portray different portions of an inversed U‐curve relating pollution and income. As with the aggregate environmental indicator, an index used to generalize the overall trend and account for the general perception of environmental quality, gives a relationship between the indicator and economic growth which is said to be compatible in foreseeable income levels. The positive relationship between economic development and environmental quality, however, does not imply that a greater percentage of income, inferred from monetary measure of aggregate environmental index, would be spent on the improvement of environment as income increased.
On the Quantile Regression Based Tests for Asymmetry in Stock Return Volatility
Authors: Park Beum‐Jo
Published: March 2003

This paper attempts to examine whether the asymmetry of stock return volatility varies with the level of volatility. Thus, quantile regression based tests (ρ‐tests) are presupposed. These tests differ from the diagnostic tests introduced by Engle and Ng (1993) insofar as they can provide a complete picture of asymmetries in volatility across quantiles of variance distribution and, in case of non‐normal errors, they have improved power due to their robustness against non‐normality. A small Monte Carlo evidence suggests that the Wald and likelihood ratio (LR) tests out of ρ‐tests are reasonable, showing that they outperform the Lagrange multiplier (LM) test based on least squares residuals when the innovations exhibit heavy tail. Using the normalized residuals obtained from AR(1)‐GARCH(1, 1) estimation, the test results demonstrated that only the TOPIX out of six stock‐return series had asymmetry in volatility at moderate level, while all stock return series except the FAZ and FA100 had more significant asymmetry in volatility at higher levels. Interestingly, it is clear from the empirical findings that, like hypothesis of leverage effects, volatility of the TOPIX, CAC40, and, MIB tends to respond significantly to extremely negative shock at high level, but is not correlated with any positive shock. These might be valuable findings that have not been seriously considered in past research, which has focussed only on mean level of volatility.
Household Grain Consumption in China: Effects of Income, Price and Urbanization
Authors: Wu Yanrui , Wu Harry X.
Published: March 2003

The objectives of this study of household grain consumption in China are to update previous estimates of consumption parameters, to look at the effect of urbanization on grain consumption and to compare household demand patterns across the region. Household grain consumption is divided into two categories: direct and indirect grain consumption. Demand systems are estimated for four consumer groups, rural, town, city and large city, respectively, using data from the 1991 rural and urban household surveys undertaken by China's State Statistical Bureau. The impact on grain consumption of income, price and urbanization is particularly elaborated.
Household Choice of Drinking–Water Source in the Philippines
Authors: Persson Therése Hindman
Published: March 2003

The present paper analyzes household choice of drinking–water source for 769 rural households in metropolitan Cebu, Philippines. The study aims to analyze the effects of input prices, tastes and household size on the choice probabilities. For the empirical analysis, a discrete–choice approach is employed, consistent with utility maximization. The findings indicate that the time cost is an important determinant of household choice of drinking–water source and, surprisingly, that taste, proxied by income, has ambiguous effects on household choice. The present study is contrasted to an earlier study in which inconsistency with utility maximization cannot be ruled out.
Erratum
Authors: Yamagishi Toshio , Jin Nobuhito , Miller Allan S.
Published: March 2003

Erratum to ‘In‐group bias and culture of collectivism’, published in issue 1:3 of AJSP.
Self as verb and the metaphor of dance: An explanation of the self discovery experience within a constructivist framework
Authors: Lane Lisbeth G. , Marlow Beth
Published: March 2003

The concept of self discovery within a constructivist framework is difficult to explain given the central assumption of constructivism that self is a created construct rather than an entity to be discovered. Two problems are identified as impediments to constructivist accounts of the self discovery experience: first, their failure to adequately account for the embodied experience of self, and second, the difficulties inherent in using self as a noun to express a process.

It is proposed that if self is considered as a verb, as the action of a body‐subject, the verbal contortionism of referring to self as a process in a language that places self as an entity may be overcome. The notion of self as verb places the individual firmly in the role of active embodied participant in the experience of self. The metaphor of “self'” as “dance” is explored to emphasize the materiality of the human animal that is argued to be central to the experience of self discovery.
What a difference a year makes: How immediate and anniversary media reports influence judgements about earthquakes
Authors: Cowan Jodie , McClure John , Wilson Marc
Published: March 2003

Research suggests that the content of newspaper and television reports about natural disasters, such as earthquakes, affects people’s fatalistic judgements about these disasters. The present paper contains two studies, Study 1 and Study 2. Study 1 examined features in newspaper reports written at two time points following two major earthquakes: immediately after the earthquakes and a year following the earthquakes. These reports showed several features about the earthquakes: in reports immediately after the earthquakes, the reports were concerned about earthquake agency and general damage; and in reports written a year following the earthquakes, the reports portrayed specific damage and lessons. Study 2 examined the influence of these features on students’ (n = 160) estimates of the extent of damage, attributions for damage and judgements of the preventability of the damage. With excerpts presenting specific damage and lessons, participants gave lower estimates of damage, judged damage to be more preventable and attributed the damage more to building design than with earthquake agency and general damage descriptions of the same earthquakes. These findings have clear implications for the way the media and civic education programs present information on earthquakes and other disasters.
The Rise of Anti‐dumping: Does Regionalism Promote Administered Protection?
Authors: James William E.
Published: March 2003

Miranda, Torres and Ruiz (1998) and Finger (1993) have documented the increased incidence of anti‐dumping in recent years and its spread beyond developed to developing and transitional economies. The countries that have been the most prolific in launching anti‐dumping cases have largely been members of discriminatory trading arrangements such as NAFTA while the affected (accused) countries have often been outside regional trading blocs. This study documents and analyses the asymmetry in anti‐dumping actions, focusing on the propensity of members of regional trading blocs to use anti‐dumping actions against developing countries in East Asia.
The Added Variable Plot for a Time Series of Counts
Authors: Hay J.L. , Pettitt A.N.
Published: March 2003

The issue of modelling non‐Gaussian time series data is one that has been examined by several authors in recent years. Zeger (1988) introduced a parameter‐driven model for a time series of counts as well as a more general observation‐driven model for non‐Gaussian data (Zeger & Qaqish, 1988). This paper examines the application of the added variable plot to these two models. This plot is useful for determining the strength of relationships and the detection of influential or outlying observations.
Diagnostics for Autocorrelated Regression Models
Authors: Kim Soon‐Kwi , Huggins Richard
Published: March 2003

This paper discusses the local influence approach to the linear regression model with AR(1) errors. Diagnostics for the autocorrelation models and for the autocorrelation coefficient only are proposed and developed respectively, when simultaneous perturbations of the response vector are allowed. Furthermore, the direction of maximum curvature of local influence analysis is shown to be exactly the same as that in Tsai & Wu (1992) when only the autocorrelation coefficient is of special interest.
Some Bounds on the Distribution of Certain Quadratic Forms in Normal Random Variables
Authors: Gao Hongsheng , Smith Peter
Published: March 2003

The paper derives bounds on the distribution of the quadratic forms Z = yH(XΓXH)−1y and W = yH(σ2I + XΓXH)−1y, where the elements of the M× 1 vector y and the M×N matrix X are independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) complex zero mean Normal variables, Γ is some N×N diagonal matrix with positive diagonal elements, I, is the identity, σ2 is a constant and H denotes the Hermitian transpose. The bounds are convenient for numerical work and appear to be tight for small values of M. This work has applications in digital mobile radio for a specific channel where M antennas are used to receive a signal with N interferers. Some of these applications in radio communication systems are discussed.
Theory and Methods: A Note on Regression‐Type Estimators Using Multiple Auxiliary Information
Authors: Ahmed M.S.
Published: March 2003

Kiregyera (1984), Mukerjee, Rao & Vijayan (1987), and Tripathi & Ahmed (1995) considered a number of regression‐type estimators where information on two auxiliary variables related to study variable is available at different levels. Mukerjee et al. (1987) suggested three estimators and computed their mean square errors, but the computations seem to be incorrect. This note corrects them, and finds their estimators are no better than that of Kiregyera (1984). The estimator suggested by Tripathi & Ahmed (1995) is the best in the sense of having the smallest mean square error.
Theory & Methods: Response Surface Designs Where Levels of Some Factors are Difficult to Change
Authors: Draper N.R. , John J.A.
Published: March 2003

This article considers response surface designs in which the number of levels of some of the factors are constrained. Two general types of designs are examined: CUBE designs and STAR designs. The specific factor levels are chosen to give variance contours with a high level of sphericity, thus providing designs that are close to rotatable.
Theory & Methods: A Class of Estimators Using Auxiliary Information in Two‐Stage Sampling
Authors: Sahoo L. N. , Panda Pournamasi
Published: March 2003

This paper presents a general class of estimators for the finite population total when the emphasis is laid on the use of two auxiliary variables in a two‐stage sampling.
Theory & Methods: Guarded Weights of Evidence and Acceptability Profiles Based on Signs: II. Asymptotic Results
Authors: Dollinger M. B. , Kulinskaya E. , Staudte R. G.
Published: March 2003

The concepts of guarded weights of evidence and acceptability profiles have been extended to the distribution‐free setting in Dollinger, Kulinskaya & Staudte (1999). In that first of two parts the advantages of these concepts relative to traditional ones such as p‐values and confidence intervals derived from hypothesis tests are emphasized for small samples. Here in Part II asymptotic expressions are found for guarded weights of evidence for hypothesesregarding the median of a symmetric distribution and related acceptability profiles for the median. It is also seen that for local alternatives the efficacy and Pitman asymptotic relative efficiency of the sign statistic for testing hypotheses carries over to the more general setting of guarded weights of evidence.
Theory & Methods: Homogeneity of Two Straight Lines: Equivalence Approach Using Fitted Regressions
Authors: Bofinger Eve
Published: March 2003

The paper examines the homogeneity of a pair of straight lines, regarded as the expected values of two different linear regressions, from an equivalence point of view. This seems more appropriate than the usual testing of the null hypothesis of homogeneity when the aim is to establish that the lines are close to homogeneous. Upper confidence bounds on the maximum difference between the lines are based on the usual least squares regression estimators, assuming normal distributions. These bounds are constructed for fixed points, or over a fixed interval, and it is concluded that the lines are 1‐homogeneous if the bounds are not greater than 1: Also, intervals are constructed over which the lines are concluded to be 1‐homogeneous.
Theory & Methods: Cross‐over Designs in the Presence of Higher Order Carry‐overs
Authors: Bose Mausumi , Mukherjee Bhramar
Published: March 2003

In cross‐over experiments, where different treatments are applied successively to the same experimental unit over a number of time periods, it is often expected that a treatment has a carry‐over effect in one or more periods following its period of application. The effect of interaction between the treatments in the successive periods may also affect the response. However, it seems that all systematic studies of the optimality properties of cross‐over designs have been done under models where carry‐over effects are assumed to persist for only one subsequent period. This paper proposes a model which allows for the possible presence of carry‐over effects up to k subsequent periods, together with all the interactions between treatments applied at k+ 1 successive periods. This model allows the practitioner to choose k for any experiment according to the requirements of that particular experiment. Under this model, the cross‐over designs are studied and the class of optimal designs is obtained. A method of constructing these optimal designs is also given.
Theory & Methods: Conditioning on Auxiliary Variable Means in Finite Population Inference
Authors: Montanari Giorgio E.
Published: March 2003

This paper reviews conditional properties of the mean and total estimators of a finite population when auxiliary information is available. An exact design‐based conditional analysis for complex sampling designs is intractable, but an asymptotic conditional framework can be developed. Within such a framework the paper establishes sufficient conditions for conditional unbiasedness and explores conditional properties of various types of regression estimators. A sample statistic capable of indicating the presence of substantial conditional biases is proposed, and illustrated by a simulation study.
Theory & Methods: On the Order of Data Reductions by Ancillarity and by Sufficiency
Authors: Kabaila Paul
Published: March 2003

In the context of frequentist inference there are strong arguments in favour of data reduction by both (a) conditioning on the most appropriate ancillary statistic and (b) restricting attention to a minimal sufficient statistic. However, significantly for the study of the foundations of frequentist inference, there are some examples in which the order of application of these data reductions has an important bearing on the statistical inference of interest. This paper presents a new simple example of this kind.
Theory & Methods: Analysis of Contingency Tables with Clustered Observations
Authors: Chowdhury Sadeq R. , McGilchrist C.A.
Published: March 2003

A new approach is presented for testing independence in contingency tables with clustered observations. The approach is based on the framework of generalized linear mixed models. Under the multinomial logistic link function, the category counts are modelled with random cluster effects and a modified likelihood ratio statistic is used for testing independence. The method is applicable to multi‐way tables, and can accommodate multiple levels of clustering. It is illustrated using a benchmark dataset.
Theory & Methods: Cutting Experimental Designs into Blocks
Authors: Nguyen Nam‐Ky
Published: March 2003

Most experimental material in agriculture and industry is heterogeneous in nature and therefore its statistical analysis benefits from blocking. Many experiments are restricted in time or space, and again blocking is useful. This paper adopts the idea of orthogonal blocking of Box & Hunter (1957) and applies it to optimal blocking designs. This approach is then compared with the determinant‐based approach described in the literature for constructing block designs.
Applications: Modelling trends in groundwater levels by segmented regression with constraints
Authors: Shao Quanxi , Campbell N. A.
Published: March 2003

This paper provides a statistically unified method for modelling trends in groundwater levels for a national project that aims to predict areas at risk from salinity in 2020. It was necessary to characterize the trends in groundwater levels in thousands of boreholes that have been monitored by Agriculture Western Australia throughout the south‐west of Western Australia over the last 10 years. The approach investigated in the present paper uses segmented regression with constraints when the number of change points is unknown. For each segment defined by change points, the trend can be described by a linear trend possibly superimposed on a periodic response. Four different types of change point are defined by constraints on the model parameters to cope with different patterns of change in groundwater levels. For a set of candidate change points provided by the user, a modified Akaike information criterion is used for model selection. Model parameters can be estimated by multiple linear regression. Some typical examples are presented to demonstrate the performance of the approach.
Theory & Methods: Semi‐parametric modelling and likelihood estimation with estimating equations
Authors: Lu Jye‐Chyi , Chen Di , Gan Nianci
Published: March 2003

This paper proposes a semi‐parametric modelling and estimating method for analysing censored survival data. The proposed method uses the empirical likelihood function to describe the information in data, and formulates estimating equations to incorporate knowledge of the underlying distribution and regression structure. The method is more flexible than the traditional methods such as the parametric maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), Cox’s (1972) proportional hazards model, accelerated life test model, quasi‐likelihood (Wedderburn, 1974) and generalized estimating equations (Liang & Zeger, 1986). This paper shows the existence and uniqueness of the proposed semi‐parametric maximum likelihood estimates (SMLE) with estimating equations. The method is validated with known cases studied in the literature. Several finite sample simulation and large sample efficiency studies indicate that when the sample size is larger than 100 the SMLE is compatible with the parametric MLE; and in all case studies, the SMLE is about 15% better than the parametric MLE with a mis‐specified underlying distribution.
Theory & Methods: Bias due to Ignoring the Sample Design in Case–Control Studies
Authors: Neuhaus John M.
Published: March 2003

Case–control studies allow efficient estimation of the associations of covariates with a binary response in settings where the probability of a positive response is small. It is well known that covariate–response associations can be consistently estimated using a logistic model by acting as if the case–control (retrospective) data were prospective, and that this result does not hold for other binary regression models. However, in practice an investigator may be interested in fitting a non–logistic link binary regression model and this paper examines the magnitude of the bias resulting from ignoring the case–control sample design with such models. The paper presents an approximation to the magnitude of this bias in terms of the sampling rates of cases and controls, as well as simulation results that show that the bias can be substantial.
Theory & Methods: On the Construction of Nearest–Neighbour Balanced Row–Column Designs
Authors: Chan Barbara S.P. , Eccleston J.A.
Published: March 2003

Nearest–neighbour balance is considered a desirable property for an experiment to possess in situations where experimental units are influenced by their neighbours. This paper introduces a measure of the degree of nearest–neighbour balance of a design. The measure is used in an algorithm which generates nearest–neighbour balanced designs and is readily modified to obtain designs with various types of nearest–neighbour balance. Nearest–neighbour balanced designs are produced for a wide class of parameter settings, and in particular for those settings for which such designs cannot be found by existing direct combinatorial methods. In addition, designs with unequal row and column sizes, and designs with border plots are constructed using the approach presented here.