bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Is this Community in Denial of Reality?
Authors: Pfeiffenberger Hans
Published: March 2024

As one of the founders and initially chief editor of Earth System Science Data (ESSD), the author is reporting (1) incidents with the availability of DOIed datasets and (2) trends in the usage of publicly built and maintained data infrastructure vs. analysis employing a commercial heavyweight. Both observations are considered sufficiently serious that the author wonders why the underlying facts and realities are not discussed widely in this community.
1) The most cited dataset published through ESSD is the series of yearly reports on the Global Carbon Budget, e.g. the latest, https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-15-5301-2023. These articles routinely inform the United Nations climate change conferences (COPs) and are cited in scientific publications by the hundreds of times. The first datasets of the series were held and provided DOIs by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), which was hosted by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory. When CDIAC was shut down in 2017, the datasets were transferred to a repository at another US National Lab, loosing most of the metadata in the process, most notably authorship. Thankfully, hosting of the dataset series has been taken over by the Integrated Carbon Observing System (ICOS) and DOIs to all elements of the series resolve to it. Still, one could argue that the most reliable holder of metainformation about it are not the repositories but ESSD, operated by commercial publisher. 
2) ESSD has seen a rapid increase of the number of articles published per year. On top of that, in the last 5 years the share of articles based on analysis performed on Google Earth Engine (GEE) as a platform and the (satellite) data held there, has grown from minor to roughly 15%. This speaks to GEE providing a more helpful service to Earth Science researchers than any other platform, yet no one in the "data community" seems to be interested in discussing the merits of GEE vs., e.g. the European Open Science Cloud (EOSC) or other federated infrastructure. 
Both these and some other observations – which will be discussed - create the uncomfortable impression that the huge efforts of this community wrt. the FAIRness of data and in the creation of a multitude of publicly funded infrastructure elements, which allegedly will be federated soon, are in denial of reality.
(Parts of this work have been presented before, at a pre-conference workshop to RDA20, Gothenburg, 2023)
Satellite Altimetry Missions Applications for Oceanographic, Coastal and Surface Water User Communities
Authors: Srinivasan Margaret , Tsontos Vardis
Published: March 2024

An international partnership of space agencies has contributed a continuous time series of more than thirty years of global satellite altimetry data. Beginning with TOPEX/Poseidon, and proceeding through the Jason 1, 2, and 3 satellite missions, Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich, and the newest Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission, this U.S./NASA, France and European partnership has enabled important research discoveries and has significantly aided in the development of several valuable operational and commercial, user-driven applications. Substantial resources have been committed over the decades by national space agencies to advance both the science and applications outcomes of these missions. Over the next decade NASA and partners will launch several new satellites with technologies that will extend and expand this constellation even further, providing a rich resource to support science and operational applications. New discoveries and advances in societally focused applications will be enabled by the increased spatial and temporal resolution of satellite remote sensing data that will continue to support ocean, coastal, and hydrology operations and decision makers. Here we highlight existing and potential uses of data from these missions for such applications for societal benefit. Applications areas include marine operations, fisheries and marine biodiversity, coastal planning, and water resource management. We share information on the NASA programs in place to advance and engage with these applied user communities, and on opportunities to collaborate in our efforts.
Biochar Potential from Wildfire Crisis Wastes and Woody Energy Crop Wastes  
Authors: Davis Maggie , Hellwinckel Chad
Published: March 2024

As the United States charts a course towards net-zero targets, the U.S. Department of Energy (USDOE) will release the latest biomass assessment, the Billion-ton 2023 (BT23) report. These reports provide an advancement in the understanding of quantity, spatial distribution, and economic accessibility of biomass resources in the U.S. Building on this work, we present the potential for biomass resources to contribute to biochar production that can be used for agricultural soil amendments, as well as biomass used for energy and bioproducts. Through modeling using a partial-equilibrium linear programming model, we evaluate biomass resources on agricultural land. With producer responses to biochar market incentives and sustainability considerations, residues from these biomass resources can be leveraged for biochar boosting the sustainability of the energy crop system. This research also introduces the potential for biochar from Wildfire Crisis Strategy (WCS) generated biomass, an unprecedented effort by the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) to make wildfire-prone forests more resilient. We estimate biomass availability resulting from thinning and fuel reduction treatments on western landscapes and present this research as a potential case study for sourcing biochar material as a soil amendment. Beyond energy generation, the focus of this work is on co-production of bioproducts and creating a pathway for payments that contribute to more sustainable agricultural systems. This dual-use strategy not only fortifies the development of renewable energy systems but also accentuates the importance of resilience by incorporating biochar to enhance soil health and carbon sequestration.
Grassland establishment in solar parks on former arable land - spontaneous succession and first findings of a highly divers seed-based approach
Authors: Dullau Sandra , Meyer Maren Helen , Scholz Pascal , Tischew Sabine
Published: March 2024

In recent years, landscapes in many countries have been transformed by efforts to fight global warming, specifically the shift towards renewable energies. Photovoltaics is one of the key technologies for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and achieving climate neutrality for Europe by 2050, which has led to the promotion of solar parks. Due to the ambitious goals for the expansion of photovoltaics, a multiple of the area used so far will be built on with solar parks. These parks are often built on arable land, can span up to several hundred hectares, and grassland vegetation is usually created between and under the panels. In most cases, this is done by spontaneous revegetation or by seeding species-poor mixtures dominated by grasses.In a case study of 12 spontaneously planted solar parks in a structurally poor agricultural landscape in central Germany, we found an average of 90 vascular plant species. However, the number of target grassland species is only one third and the majority are ruderal species. A comparison of the three zones showed that there were the same number of target grassland species in the area between the panels and without panels, but significantly fewer under the panels. Surprisingly, the coverage of target grassland species was highest between the panels.Establishing grasslands using highly divers native seed mixtures can significantly enhance target species richness. This finding has already been well documented by grassland restoration research. However, it has not yet been proven for solar parks with their special characteristics, such as small-scale modified site conditions. In two solar parks on ex-arable land, we seeded a site adapted seed mixture with high percentage of forb seeds (39 species, including 3 grasses). In the first year after sowing, the establishment success of the sown species in the areas between the PV panels were recorded. The establishment rate was 25-30 % in the unshaded sections, increased significantly in the partially shaded sections and fell sharply with increasing shade. The low establishment rate is probably related to the significantly below-average rainfall in 2021, while the partially shaded sections provided better establishment conditions due to higher soil moisture. Heavy shading hindered the establishment of light-demanding grassland species. An increasing establishment rate is expected in the further vegetation development and must continue to be monitored.
Geomechanical models of the shale sequence of the Baltic Basin (Poland): possible case of elastic properties degradation and viscous stress relaxation
Authors: Jarosinski Marek , Bobek Kinga , Pachytel Radomir
Published: March 2024

The 1D Geomechanical Models (1DGM) were done for four vertical boreholes in the Early Paleozoic shale sequences of the Baltic Basin in Poland. The models assumed an elastic rock behaviour with anisotropy in VTI symmetry. The far-field horizontal stresses were calculated as the sum of two components: the vertical stress derivative acting on the horizontally constrained rock column and the effect of elastic tectonic strains. Local stresses in the borehole wall were assumed to induce breakouts (BBs) and drilling-induced tensile fractures (DITFs). Hydraulic fracturing tests additionally validated the stress modelling results.Micro-resistivity images from XRMI logging revealed irregular BBs, usually confined to individual layers, often non-symmetrical, and with a tendency to encompass the entire borehole wall. Despite their irregularity, statistical analysis of their orientation provides a good quality and stable stress orientation.The initial modelling results, balancing the cumulative length of the modelled (BBM) and observed (BBO), revealed a systematic misfit between BBm and BBo locations. A detailed comparison between the BBm and BBo intervals concluded that the artificial degradation of Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio is caused by the perturbation of the velocity of the acoustic wave from the dipole acoustic tool passing through the intervals with irregular BBs. This makes it impossible to model the BBs in the places where they are present. To deal with this, the initial stress models were recalculated to the final models in which the BBm were avoided in intervals where there were no BBO.The initial and final stress models differ significantly in terms of the tectonic strain values and the combined length of the BBm. Still, their stress profiles are similar due to the small contribution of tectonic strain to the far-field stresses. We concluded that irregular BBs developed due to small differential horizontal stresses, causing abrupt BB failure with rapidly growing angular width. The stress layering between lithostratigraphic units was obtained with a dominance of the normal faulting stress regime in the lower borehole sections and the reverse faulting present in the upper sections. The minor regional elastic tectonic strain value for the shale sequence was determined to be an order of magnitude lower than the strain in the crystalline basement, as determined from the satellite geodetic strain rate. We expect that this discrepancy could be explained by a higher rate of viscous relaxation in the shale sequence with > 60% of the clay mineral content. This suggests the need to implement the viscous relaxation into the 1DGM of sedimentary sequences.
Lunar Penetrating Radar Reveals Three Phases of Volcanism at Von Kármán Crater
Authors: Giannakis Iraklis , Warren Craig , Giannopoulos Antonis
Published: March 2024

The Chinese Lunar mission Chang'E-4 soft-landed on the far side of the Moon on January 2019 marking a significant milestone in space exploration. The mission's landing site is on the eastern floor of Von Kármán (VK) crater (45.4446°S, 177.5991°E), within the South Pole–Aitken (SPA) basin, one of the oldest and largest impact craters in the solar system.Yutu-2 is the rover of the Chang;E-4 mission. Similar to its twin rover Yutu-1, amongst its scientific payloads Yutu-2 carries a set of ground-penetrating radar (GPR) systems. GPR is a well-established geophysical method and has been instrumental in the new era of planetary exploration. Chang’E-3 was the first mission incorporating in-situ planetary GPR, a trend continued by subsequent Lunar and Martian missions, including Chang'E-4, Perseverance, Chang'E-5 and Tianwen-1; with plans for future missions such as Chang'E-7 and ExoMars [1].Existing Lunar GPR studies often assume that the dielectric properties of Lunar materials can be modelled via a constant electric permittivity and a conductive term. However, treating the electric permittivity as non-dispersive overlook the frequency-dependent complex electric permittivity of ilmenite. Ilmenite is a titanium mineral, particularly abundant in Lunar mare basalts and soils. Recent investigations [1] using a complex Cole-Cole function have shown that ilmenite-mixtures act as low-pass filters, causing a decrease in the pulse's central frequency as the wave propagates through an ilmenite formation. This frequency shift, proportional to the ilmenite content, serves as a basis for inferring the presence of basalts and approximating their ilmenite content.In this study, we explore the frequency shift of signals received both from Channel-2B and Channel-1. Our analysis reveals a sequence of basaltic layers extending to approximately 300 m depth, displaying varying thickness and ilmenite content. Based on the estimated ilmenite content, the GPR data indicates three distinct phases of Lunar volcanism: an early phase with high-Ti basalts, followed by a low-Ti volcanic activity, and a final phase with high-Ti basalts. These findings align with generic models of Lunar lava emplacement [1]. According to these models, Lunar volcanic history includes an early "blue" titanium-rich volcanic event (~ 3.8-3.5 Ga), followed by low-Ti "red" basalts (~ 3.5-3 Ga), and a subsequent phase of "blue" high-Ti basalts (~3 Ga) [2].References[1]   Giannakis, I., Martin-Torres, J., Su, Y., Feng, J., Zhou, F., Zorzano, M-P., Warren, C., Giannopoulos, A., (2024). Evidence of Shallow Basaltic Lava Layers in Von Kármán Crater from Yutu-2 Lunar Penetrating Radar, Icarus, 2024. [2] Cattermole, P. J., (1996). Planetary Volcanism: A Study of Volcanic Activity in the Solar System, Wiley, Chichester, 2ndEdition, 1996. 
Role of blue and green spaces in mitigating heat stress and providing biodiversity co-benefits in India’s cities 
Authors: Krishnaswamy Jagdish , Chandrasekharan Kiran , Mayavel Dhananjayan , Jambhekar Ravi
Published: March 2024

Cities and urbanizing spaces combine heat stress from both heat island effect due to the built environment as well as global warming.  India with its high rate of urbanization is no exception. However, many Indian cities have blue and green spaces with various levels of protection from land-use and land-cover change. Blue and green spaces (BGS) are potentially nature-based solutions for mitigating heat stress through evaporation and transpiration besides sequestering carbon and as a habitat for urban biodiversity.  The effectiveness of BGS in mitigating heat stress depends on size, shape, weather, and climate variables, especially humidity.  We use satellite derived land surface temperature (LST) to quantify and map negative temperature anomalies (cooling) with respect to spatial average across the city in years with different levels of summer temperature, especially due to El Nino.   We analyse the diverse types of blue and green spaces in three metropolitan cities in India and classify them in terms of biodiversity value (using e-bird data and other published sources). Cooling more than few degrees Celsius with respect to city wide averages from blue and green infrastructure has been observed and is much higher if compared to nearby built areas.  The geometry and landscape ecology of existing urban blue and green infrastructure can help inform future planning for blue and green spaces as adaptation in a warming urban environment. 
Holocene to Late Pleistocene Climate Reconstruction: A snapshot from the Red Sea using Micropalaeontological Tools
Authors: Shah Bhakti , Baumann Karl-Heinz , Petrovic Alexander , Felis Thomas , Westphal Hildegard
Published: March 2024

Climate fluctuations and environmental changes have been integral to the Earth’s system since its formation. Studying these past changes could provide crucial insights into future climate variability, where records of environmental change within sediments can serve as keys to unlocking this information. Here, we focus on climatic shifts over the past 20,000 years based on micropaleontological data from sediment gravity cores collected from the Northern Red Sea near the Al-Wajh carbonate platform in Saudi Arabia. The Red Sea is located in the subtropical Sahara-Arabian Desert belt and is supplied with nutrients by dust. Due to its restricted connection with the Indian Ocean, the area is extremely sensitive to global Sea Level Changes and thus, ideally suited for paleoceanographic studies of what occurred since last glaciation.It is generally accepted that the Sahara was green during the African Humid Period(5.5 – 11ka). Subsequently, to understand these shifts from humid, to arid periods, and vice-versa we incorporate a combination of methods applied to a marine sediment core. The present study comprises analysis of 56 sediment samples collected at an interval of 5-10 cm from the core PERC-002-018 (25°41'10.48"N, 36°21'17.59"E). The sampled core (water depth: 864m; core length: 286cm) belonged to a deep-sea fan formed by a paleo-channel called “Wadi al Hamd”. These sediment samples were examined for the coccolithophore assemblage, together with the analysis of sediment grain size and mineralogical composition. The results show a clear maximum in total coccolith number since the Mid-Holocene (>20,000 x 10⁶ coccolith/g sediment), and low but variable numbers during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Early Holocene (~10,000 x 10⁶coccolith/g sediment). However, this trend is interrupted by a peak related to the formation of Sapropel RS-1b at the beginning of the Holocene. The variations in abundance and distribution of the 36 identified coccolithophore species indicate changes in the environment, with higher estimated productivity assumed during the Holocene. Moreover, two main humid periods have been identified from the study: (i) during the shift from Heinrich stadial 1 to the Bølling–Allerød warm period and (ii) at the start of the Holocene. The causes and shifts of these humid phases will be further discussed in detail.
Geophysical constraints on intraplate deformation in southern Africa
Authors: Sloan Alastair , Kahle Beth , Muir Robert , Quiros Diego , Leseane Khumo , Adams Shaakirah , Jones Timothy , Matsebula Anele , Ramagadane Anzani , Salomon Guy , Whitehead Benjamin
Published: March 2024

The hazard posed by large intraplate earthquakes is relatively well-known in the GlobalNorth, but Sub-Saharan Africa is poorly represented in compilations of such events, and thehazard they may pose in this region is not well understood. Much of southern Africa is anunusual example of an intraplate region undergoing predominantly extensionaldeformation, complicating comparisons with otherwise similar regions. Here we present thelocations of moderate magnitude instrumentally-recorded seismicity, as well as eight majorpaleoseismic fault scarps across South Africa, Namibia and Botswana. We focus on regionsgenerally considered to be stable, and compare these data to available aeromagnetic andseismic tomographic datasets. Major events are primarily focussed on either the boundariesof the cratonic cores in the region, or in the vicinity of large igneous complexes, suggestingthat variations in large-scale lithosphere rheology provide a first-order control on theiroccurrence. Aeromagnetic lineaments, associated with Jurassic-Cretaceous normal faults orancient shear zones within mobile belts, are associated with almost all of the majorpaleoseismic ruptures, and appear to control fault bends and terminations. Significantdifferences in strike over relatively short length-scales suggest the orientation of the faultsare controlled by crustal anisotropy rather than variations in stress orientation. Some of thescarps are likely to be associated with M7+ events, suggesting that such events can occur instable regions experiencing extensional stresses. The association with major crustalstructures likely explains their great length, relative geometric simplicity and unexpectedlylarge magnitudes, despite limited recent brittle offset. While intraplate events are relativelypoorly studied in southern Africa the excellent preservation potential of landscape, and therarity of extensional events in other comparably stable regions, mean that this region hasexcellent potential to increase our understanding of these phenomena.
Quantifying the 4D Seismic Density Evolution Caused by Geothermal Injection
Authors: Wang Zhiwei , Lengliné Olivier , Schmittbuhl Jean
Published: March 2024

The injection of geothermal water into subsurface rock formations often induces a cascade of seismic events. However, a comprehensive understanding of the resulting temporal and spatial seismic density evolution remains elusive. In this study, we meticulously analyze both spatial and temporal earthquake probability density distributions. Leveraging data from multiple injection sequences obtained from the EPOS TCS-AH through the EPISODES Platform, our objective is to elucidate the spatiotemporal evolution of seismic activity across distinct phases of water injection. We extend our focus to quantify seismicity during the post-injection phase and assess whether the largest magnitude event in each sequence aligns with the derived distribution. This time, our primary emphasis is on conducting the above-mentioned analysis on the 09/1993 Soultz-sous-Fôret sequence. Our research is supported by Horizon Europe under grant agreement No. 101058129 as part of the DT-Geo Project.Our findings reveal a distinctive characteristic of seismic spatial density, marked by a sudden decay at extended distances. Remarkably, there is no significant divergence in spatial density decay observed before and after the cessation of injection. Furthermore, we observe that the occurrence of the maximum magnitude event coincides with the peak of the probability spatial density. Shifting to temporal density, we identify a close correlation with the increase in injection volume, displaying a skewed normal distribution. Notably, the maximum magnitude event aligns with the peak of the probability temporal density.In essence, our research substantively contributes to a quantitative comprehension of the dynamic features governing the temporal and spatial evolution of seismic density during intensified water injection scenarios.
Global Evidence of the Impacts of Natural Disasters on Economic Preferences 
Authors: Constantino Sara M. , d’Adda Giovanna , Vranic Milica , Weber Elke U.
Published: March 2024

Extreme weather events are increasing in frequency and severity, directly affecting economic growth and development, especially in low-income countries. Disasters may also have indirect effects through their impacts on economic preferences, including risk, time, and social preferences, which shape individual investment decisions and economic relationships. Using experimentally validated measures of six economic preferences in 64 countries, we find that recent exposure to natural disasters makes individuals on average more risk averse, less patient and less prosocial. The effects are strongest among individuals who are less resilient to shocks because they (a) live in countries with limited resources and inadequate social and institutional safety nets; or b) are in cultural contexts with “looser” social norms and lower social cohesion; or (c) are exposed to shocks against which it is hard to prepare. We also find that short- term exposure to natural disasters may hamper interpersonal relationships by decreasing negative reciprocity and social trust, but that higher lifetime exposure may actually increase trust and positive reciprocity over the long-term. Our results point to the importance of climate adaptation and mitigation policies and robust and rapid post-disaster relief measures that reduce the negative impacts of natural disasters, mitigating their indirect as well as direct impacts on economic growth and human development.
On the iron isotope systematics of subducted oceanic gabbros
Authors: Churchus Alex , Nebel Oliver , Jacobsen Yona , Wang Xueying , Raveggi Massimo , Richter Marianne , Maas Roland
Published: March 2024

Oceanic gabbros represent a voluminous part of oceanic crust and are to a large degree cumulative mineral assemblage composed of olivine-pyroxene-feldspar and iron oxides. As such, oceanic gabbros represent a large Fe isotope reservoir in the global Fe cycle. During recycling into the mantle, oceanic gabbros undergo metamorphic reactions but are often considered a small contributor to the subduction component in arcs (e.g., slab-derived fluids) due to their relatively dry and refractory nature. Instead, fluids released from serpentinite as a result of slab devolatisation are considered to be the main source of deep mantle wedge fluids and considerably contribute to arc-lava chemistry and the redox state of metasomatised mantle wedge. However, serpentinite-derived fluids will, by default, pass through overlying gabbroic sequences when ascending to the mantle wedge with a potentially considerable contribution to the Fe isotope budget of the mantle wedge and arc lavas.
Here, we investigate the Fe isotopic signature of gabbroic rocks exposed on the seafloor along the Southwest Indian Ridge and collected during IODP scientific ocean drilling expedition leg 118 from the Atlantis Bank Gabbro Massif (IODP Site 735B). Site 735B is composed of intrusive lower crustal and upper mantle rock exhumed to the surface by detachment faulting. Iron was chemically leached, simulating passing fluids, with both leachate and residue analysed for their Fe isotope composition. Our samples display large variation in isotopic composition ranging from mantle to extreme values of δ57Fe = -0.07 to +0.68‰ (relative to IRMM-524a) for the leachate, and MORB-like δ57Fe = -0.1 to +0.21‰, for the residue, respectively. Our results imply that the leached isotopically heavier Fe from oceanic gabbros can be a significant contributor to the Fe isotope composition of the subduction component in arcs and counterbalance the light Fe isotopes derived from serpentinites. Considering the oxidation state of Fe in magnetite, this may further add to the oxidized nature of arc lavas. If such fluids remain in the mantle, they can potentially be a very heavy Fe isotope reservoir, which may explain some exotic signatures observed in ocean island lavas or transition zone diamond inclusions. Gabbroic residues deprived of any such leachate resembles Fe isotope signatures of the upper mantle and MORB and thus does not change the Fe isotope composition of the mantle significantly after subduction. 
Understanding conditions leading to WAIS collapse, from the Last Interglacial to the modern
Authors: Berdahl Mira , Leguy Gunter , Steig Eric , Lipscomb William , Otto-Bliesner Bette , Urban Nathan , Miller Ian , Morgan Harriet
Published: March 2024

It is virtually certain that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) collapsed during past warm periods in Earth’s history, prompting concerns about the potential recurrence under anthropogenic climate change. Despite observed ice shelf thinning in the region, the combination of climate forcing and ice sheet sensitivity driving these changes remains unclear. Here, we investigate the joint effects of climate forcing and ice sheet sensitivity to evaluate conditions leading to WAIS collapse. We run ensembles of the Community Ice Sheet Model (CISM), spun up to a pre-industrial state, and apply climate anomalies from the Last Interglacial (LIG, 129 to 116 yr ago), and the future (SSP2-4.5).  Forcing is derived from Community Earth System Model (CESM2) global simulations. We find that only modest ocean warming is required to cause significant WAIS mass loss, though such loss takes multiple centuries to millennia to manifest.
Machine Learning Prediction of Lightning Damage to Aircraft
Authors: Kochkin Pavlo
Published: March 2024

Lightning can cause physical damage to the aircraft structure, including the wings, nose cone, and other components. This damage can compromise the structural integrity of the aircraft and pose a serious risk to passenger safety. In addition, it can cause electromagnetic interference that can disrupt communications, navigation, and other essential systems that are critical for safe flight. 
To better understand the impact of lightning strikes on aircraft, a dataset of more than 300 such events has been collected and analysed. The dataset mainly covers Scandinavia and North Europe in the period from 2021 to 2024. The lightning data come from the regional lightning detection networks operated by the Norwegian, Finish, and Danish Meteorologic Institutes. 
The dataset has been used to train a Machine Learning model for lightning damage assessment in close cooperation with Scandinavian Airlines. The model shows high prediction accuracy for all known types of lightning strikes to airplanes. The dataset will be available for interested researchers. 
Overall, this research advances understanding of the phenomenon and can aid in developing strategies to mitigate the risk of lightning strikes and ensure safe air transportation.
The defining roles of sterodynamic sea level in future climate projections
Authors: Tesdal Jan-Erik , Krasting John , Kopp Robert , Kumar Praveen , Griffies Stephen , Sweet William
Published: March 2024

Our ability to characterize and quantify the complex uncertainties surrounding future sea-level changes is crucial for coastal risk assessments and adaptation strategies. This study focuses on the role of steric and dynamic changes (i.e., sterodynamics) in sea level projections, particularly regarding their contribution to the uncertainty of global and regional sea level changes in relation to other components such as ice sheet dynamics. A probabilistic framework is used to estimate probability distributions of sea-level change for each component. Through variance decomposition, the total uncertainty in sea-level change is dissected into its constituent sources. Subsequently, the relative contribution of sterodynamics uncertainty is quantified across various regions, time frames, emission scenarios, and projection methodologies utilized to estimate future sea-level distributions. The contribution of sterodynamics to overall uncertainty reduces over time as the contribution from ice sheets becomes more pronounced. The spatiotemporal pattern of sterodynamic significance is not strongly dependent on future greenhouse gas emissions, yet its overall role is highly dependent on the representation (e.g., emulation) of ice sheets. When high-end, low-probability estimates of future Antarctic ice sheet contributions are excluded, sterodynamics remain a dominant source of regional sea-level uncertainty at the end of this century, particularly along the US East Coast and European coast. These regions are also identified as hotspots for future sea-level rise, indicating that sterodynamic processes will play a significant role in assessing coastal vulnerabilities there. This study suggests that ocean model development can most effectively reduce the overall uncertainty in future sea-level projections by focusing on these areas.
High-Resolution Seismic Methods for Geothermal Exploration and Monitoring across the Hengill volcanic area
Authors: Obermann Anne , Goertz-Allmann Bettina , Sanchez-Pastor Pilar , shi Peidong , Wu Sin-Mei , Hjórleifsdóttir Vala
Published: March 2024

Hengill volcano and its associated geothermal fields represent Iceland's most productive harnessed high-temperature geothermal fields, where energy is provided by cooling magmatic intrusions connected to three volcanic systems. The crustal structure in this area is highly heterogeneous and shaped by the intricate interplay between tectonic forces and magmatic/hydrothermal activities, making detailed subsurface characterization challenging. In the Northern part of the Hengill geothermal field, super-hot geothermal resources have been spotted that are currently considered for geothermal exploration.Over the past years, we have studied the site in great detail, and acquired high-quality datasets from a 40+broadband seismic station array, a dense 500+ station nodal array and distributed acoustic sensing data from a fibre line crossing the area. We compare the results that we obtained from various seismic imaging methods e.g., earthquake tomography, ambient noise methods and discuss their potential and limitation to enable high-resolution seismic methods for exploration and monitoring of geothermal plays in such complex volcanic environments.
Mauna Loa and Kīlauea Elastic volcanic interaction detected via independent component  analysis
Authors: Tizzani Pietro , Przeor Monika , Luca D’Auria Luca D’Auria , Susi Pepe Susi Pepe , Cabrera‐Pérez Iván
Published: March 2024

The interaction processes between the two most active Hawaiian volcanoes are still controversial, and despite multiple studies carried out over more than a century, an unambiguous model has yet to be identified. In order to provide new insights we compared the ground deformation patterns in both volcanoes using DInSAR SBAS and Global Positioning System (GPS)datasets. In this work, we processed 10 tracks of ENVISAT ASAR satellite images from 20032010, together with available GPS data from 15 stations located around the two summit calderas of Mauna Loa and Kīlauea. We applied the Independent Component Analysis (ICA) to the DInSAR SBAS ground deformation data to reveal relationships between the spatio-temporal patterns of the ground deformation of the two volcanoes. ICA is widely used Data Mining technique, which allows detecting, separating and characterizing hidden patterns into a spatio-temporal dataset. We performed inverse modelling of the observed ground deformation pattern using analytical source models. The results indicate that the ground deformation of Mauna Loa is associated with a dike‐shaped source located at 6.2 km depth. In comparison, the anticorrelated ground deformation of Kīlauea is associated with a volumetric source at 1.2 km depth. This excludes a hydraulic connection as a possible mechanism to explain the anticorrelated behaviour; instead, we postulate a stress‐transfer mechanism. To support this hypothesis, we performed a 3D numerical modelling of stress and strain fields in the study area, determining the elastic interaction of each source over the others. The most relevant finding is that the Mauna Loa shallow plumbing system can affect the shallowest magmatic reservoir of Kīlauea.
Changes to agricultural landscapes impact the quality of land: An African continent-wide assessment in gained and displaced agricultural lands
Authors: Akinyemi Felicia O. , Speranza Chinwe Ifejika
Published: March 2024

Agricultural land area is increasing globally despite the loss of productive agricultural lands in some world regions. The knowledge about major agricultural land changes and the impacts on the quality of land in both cropland and grassland in Africa is still very limited. We conducted an African continent-wide assessment of the dynamics of agricultural landscapes (i.e., gains, losses, and net change). With pressure mounting to halt biodiversity loss and stem land degradation in agricultural areas across all world regions, promoting sustainable agriculture requires not only an understanding of agricultural land-use change but also the impacts of such changes on land quality.We identify influencing factors and model the quality of land associated with agricultural land gains and losses between 2000 and 2018. Land quality in gained and displaced croplands and grasslands was established using spatially-explicit analysis of changes in Net Primary Productivity, soil organic carbon content, crop suitability and percent yield change for five major crops of global importance grown across Africa. These are maize, rice, soybean, wheat, and alfalfa.Influencing factors in each agricultural land change area (i.e., areas of cropland and grassland gains and losses) were examined. In cropland loss and gain areas, settlement development,proximity to perennial rivers/water bodies, and access to a major road were important. For example, most land areas transitioning to cropland in Africa were associated with large distances away from major roads. The preceding finding suggests the remoteness of newly gained croplands. However, distances to a major road, waterbody, settlement, and elevation were important for explaining grassland dynamics. Land quality was better in gainedcroplands than in those lost, whereas gained grasslands were of lesser quality compared to areas of grassland loss.Five typologies of African countries were developed based on net yield and amount of land cultivated per crop in cropland change areas. Type 1 typifies net yield increase and cultivated land decrease, while type 2 is characterized by yield increase consequent upon cropland expansion. Net yield and land remain unchanged in type 3, while in type 4, cultivated land increased, but yield decreased for maize in 40% of African countries, and in type 5, yield and land area decreased. This study thus provides evidence about the quality of land in gained and lost agricultural areas and generalizable insights on their dynamics across Africa.
Implementation of the Brunswick model system into the Hydrus software suite
Authors: Simunek Jiri , Diamantopoulos Efstathios , K. D. Weber Tobias
Published: March 2024

The modular framework for modelling unsaturated soil hydraulic properties over the full moisture range of Weber et al. (2019) and Streck and Weber (2020) was implemented in the Hydrus Suite. Users can now additionally choose between four different variants of the Brunswick model: i) van Genuchten-Mualem (van Genuchten, 1980; Mualem, 1976), ii) Brooks-Corey (Brooks and Corey, 1964), iii) Kosugi (Kosugi, 1996), and iv) modified van Genuchten (Vogel and Cislerova, 1988). For demonstration purposes, simulation results of bare soil evaporation and root water uptake with Hydrus are presented, along with a comparison of the original van Genuchten-Mualem model and its Brunswick variant. Results show that the original van Genuchten-Mualem model underestimates the simulated cumulative evaporation and cumulative transpiration due to the inconsistent representation of the soil hydraulic properties in the dry moisture range. We also implemented a two-step hydro-ptf into the Hydrus Suite that converts the parameters of the original van Genuchten-Mualem model to the Brunswick variant (Weber et al., 2020). In that way, physically comprehensive simulations are ensured in case no data on soil hydraulic properties are directly available, but information on physical soil properties (e.q., texture, bulk density) exists.
Enabling long-lead forecasting of agriculture production shocks with soil moisture monitoring and forecasting products to support food insecurity early warning
Authors: Shukla Shraddhanand , Davenport Frank , Yoon Eric , Das Barnali , Anderson Weston , Hazara Abheera , Slinski Kim , McNally Amy L.
Published: March 2024

As per USAID’s Famine Early Warning System Network Team (FEWS NET) 110-120 million people are projected to need emergency food assistance across all FEWS NET-monitored countries. Climate shocks such as droughts contribute to acute food insecurity. Better identification and earlier warning of anomalous conditions leading to food insecurity are critical to support decision-making to mitigate the impacts of food insecurity on lives and livelihoods. Agricultural production outlooks are one of the critical components of the famine early warning scenario generation process. Thus far these outlooks have mainly been based on estimates of seasonal rainfall or remotely sensed indicators of vegetation greenness whereas soil moisture estimates (remotely sensed or modeled) have been used as drought indicators but not directly used for crop yield forecasting to assess production shocks, particularly in operational settings. Our past research, which focused on crop yield forecasting in southern Africa, revealed a promising level of skill when soil moisture monitoring products or forecasts were used as predictors of crop yield, relative to traditional predictors such as December to February ENSO. Additionally, a separate study focused on East Africa revealed when and where soil moisture can be the best predictor of crop yield relative to other earth observations. Building upon this initial research, here we investigate the applicability of soil moisture monitoring and forecasting products in crop yield forecasting in up to 20 FEWS NET monitored countries for which processed crop yield data are available at sub-national scale. We first use soil moisture monitoring products, both remotely sensed (such as ESA-CCI) and modeled (such as FEWS NET Land Data Assimilation System) to implement and validate machine learning based within-season crop yield forecasting. We then use seasonal-scale soil moisture forecasts (up to 6 months in future) to enhance the lead-time of crop yield forecasting and implement and validate pre-season (before the start of a crop growing season) long-lead crop yield forecasting, as earlier estimates of food insecurity can provide additional critical time needed for launching famine prevention responses by governments and donor agencies.
Segment Anything Model (SAM) for Automatic Crater Detection
Authors: Giannakis Iraklis , Bhardwaj Anshuman , Sam Lydia , Leontidis Georgis
Published: March 2024

Impact craters, resulting from the collision of meteorites, asteroids, or comets with planetary surfaces, manifest as circular-elliptical depressions with diverse sizes and shapes influenced by various factors. These morphological features play a crucial role in planetary exploration, offering insights into the geological composition and structure of celestial bodies. Beyond their scientific importance, craters may also hold valuable natural resources, such as frozen water in the Moon's permanently shadowed craters. Furthermore, understanding craters’ spatial distribution is pivotal for terrain-relative navigation and for selecting future landing sites.Manual crater mapping through visual inspection is an impractical and laborious process, often unattainable for large-scale investigations. Moreover, manual crater mapping is susceptible to human errors and biases, leading to potential disagreements of up to 40%. In order to tackle these issues, semi-automatic crater detection algorithms (CDA) have been developed to mitigate human biases, and to enable large-scale and real-time crater detection and mapping.The majority of CDAs’ are based on machine learning (ML) and data-driven methods. ML-based CDAs’ are trained in a supervised manner using specific datasets that were manually labelled. Because of that, existing ML-based CDAs’ are constrained to specific data types according to the type of their training data. This makes current ML-based CDAs’ unstable and un-practical, since applying an ML scheme to a different type of data requires acquiring and labelling a new training set, and subsequently use it to train a new ML scheme, or fine-tune an already existing one.In this study, we describe a universal approach [1] for crater identification based on Segment Anything Model (SAM), a foundational computer vision and image segmentation model developed by META [2]. SAM was trained with over 1 billion masks, and is capable to segment various data types (e.g., photos, DEM, spectra, gravity) from different celestial bodies (e.g., Moon, Mars) and measurement setups. The segmentation output undergoes further classification into crater and no-crater based on geometric indices assessing circular and elliptical attributes of the investigated mask. The proposed framework is proven effective across different datasets from various planetary bodies and measurement configurations. The outcomes of this study underlines the potential of foundational segmentation models in planetary science. Foundational models tuned for planetary data can provide universal classifiers contributing towards an automatic scheme for identifying, detecting and mapping various morphological and geological targets in different celestial bodies. References[1] Giannakis, I., Bhardwaj, A., Sam, L., Leontidis, G., (2024). A Flexible Deep Learning Crater Detection Scheme Using Segment Anything Model (SAM), Icarus, 2024.[2] Kirillov, A., et al. (2024). Segment Anything, arXiv:2304.02643
Approaches to PBAP modelling in EMEP
Authors: Lange Gunnar Felix , Simpson David , Yttri Karl Espen , Valdebenito Alvaro , Olivie Dirk , van Caspel Willem , Fagerli Hilde
Published: March 2024

Primary biological aerosol particles (PBAP) are ubiquitous in the Earth’s atmosphere, and can make significant contributions to measured particulate matter (PM) concentrations [1,2]. They are also known to play an important role in cloud formation and have a significant impact on health [3]. The sources of PBAP, however, are many and complex (e.g., viruses, bacteria, algae, fungae, plant pollen), and PBAP can be emitted from both land and sea sources. Although modelling of pollen has been included in the EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model [4] for many years, other PBAP sources have not been included. This is mainly because of the difficulties in quantifying the magnitude and spatial and temporal distributions at both European and global scale. In this study we review some of the main sources of PBAP, and consider approaches for a more detailed inclusion of these important aerosol particles in the EMEP model.[1] V. R. DesprÅLes et al. Primary biological aerosol particles in the atmosphere: a review, Tellus B: Chemical and Physical Meteorology, 64:1 (2012).[2] K. Yttri et al. Trends, composition, and sources of carbonaceous aerosol at the Birkenes Observatory, northern Europe, 2001–2018, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 21, 7149–7170 (2021).[3] J. FrÅNohlich-Nowoisky et al. Bioaerosols in the Earth system: Climate, health, and ecosystem interactions, Atmospheric Research Volume 182, 346-376 (2016).[4] D. Simpson et al. The EMEP MSC-W chemical transport model – technical description, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 7825–7865 (2012).