Espacio fiscal y recuperación económica de la crisis producida en México por la pandemia de Covid-19
Authors: Sánchez Vargas Armando , Ramírez Cedillo Eduardo , López Herrera Francisco 
Published: August 2023

<div class="page" title="Page 1"><div class="layoutArea"><div class="column"><p><span>Dada la crisis por la pandemia de Covid-19, se requiere determinar si existe espacio fiscal para llevar a cabo una política anticíclica en México que en el corto plazo facilite la recuperación económica. En este artículo buscamos aproximar empíricamente la existencia de espacio fiscal mediante la estimación de la brecha de sostenibilidad del balance primario, haciendo uso de los pronósticos de un modelo macroeconómico cointegrado. Específicamente, se estima la brecha usando el pronóstico tendencial del PIB nominal, la tasa de interés nominal y el saldo primario en los próximos meses. Nuestros hallazgos sugieren que no hay espacio fiscal suficiente para implementar una política expansiva basada en deuda pública durante el próximo año, incluso a pesar de que el crecimiento del PIB se mantendrá en una ruta de recuperación gradual y de que la tasa de interés pudiera mantenerse más baja que antes de la crisis. Así, el gasto público deberá administrarse de manera eficiente para evitar un gran aumento en el déficit y mayores riesgos a la estabilidad financiera. </span></p></div></div></div><textarea id="BFI_DATA" style="width: 1px; height: 1px; display: none;"></textarea><textarea id="BFI_DATA" style="width: 1px; height: 1px; display: none;"></textarea><textarea id="BFI_DATA" style="width: 1px; height: 1px; display: none;"></textarea><textarea id="BFI_DATA" style="width: 1px; height: 1px; display: none;"></textarea><div id="WidgetFloaterPanels" class="LTRStyle" style="display: none; text-align: left; direction: ltr; visibility: hidden;"><div id="WidgetFloater" style="display: none;" onmouseover="Microsoft.Translator.OnMouseOverFloater()" onmouseout="Microsoft.Translator.OnMouseOutFloater()"><div id="WidgetLogoPanel"><span id="WidgetTranslateWithSpan"><span>TRANSLATE with </span><img id="FloaterLogo" alt="" /></span> <span id="WidgetCloseButton" title="Exit Translation" onclick="Microsoft.Translator.FloaterOnClose()">x</span></div><div id="LanguageMenuPanel"><div class="DDStyle_outer"><input id="LanguageMenu_svid" style="display: none;" onclick="this.select()" type="text" name="LanguageMenu_svid" value="en" /> <input id="LanguageMenu_textid" style="display: none;" onclick="this.select()" type="text" name="LanguageMenu_textid" /> <span id="__LanguageMenu_header" class="DDStyle" onclick="return LanguageMenu &amp;&amp; !LanguageMenu.Show('__LanguageMenu_popup', event);" onkeydown="return LanguageMenu &amp;&amp; !LanguageMenu.Show('__LanguageMenu_popup', event);">English</span><div style="position: relative; text-align: left; left: 0;"><div style="position: absolute; ;left: 0px;"><div id="__LanguageMenu_popup" class="DDStyle" style="display: none;"><table id="LanguageMenu" border="0"><tbody><tr><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('ar');" tabindex="-1" href="#ar">Arabic</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('he');" tabindex="-1" href="#he">Hebrew</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('pl');" tabindex="-1" href="#pl">Polish</a></td></tr><tr><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('bg');" tabindex="-1" href="#bg">Bulgarian</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('hi');" tabindex="-1" href="#hi">Hindi</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('pt');" tabindex="-1" href="#pt">Portuguese</a></td></tr><tr><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('ca');" tabindex="-1" href="#ca">Catalan</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('mww');" tabindex="-1" href="#mww">Hmong Daw</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('ro');" tabindex="-1" href="#ro">Romanian</a></td></tr><tr><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('zh-CHS');" tabindex="-1" href="#zh-CHS">Chinese Simplified</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('hu');" tabindex="-1" href="#hu">Hungarian</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('ru');" tabindex="-1" href="#ru">Russian</a></td></tr><tr><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('zh-CHT');" tabindex="-1" href="#zh-CHT">Chinese Traditional</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('id');" tabindex="-1" href="#id">Indonesian</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('sk');" tabindex="-1" href="#sk">Slovak</a></td></tr><tr><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('cs');" tabindex="-1" href="#cs">Czech</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('it');" tabindex="-1" href="#it">Italian</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('sl');" tabindex="-1" href="#sl">Slovenian</a></td></tr><tr><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('da');" tabindex="-1" href="#da">Danish</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('ja');" tabindex="-1" href="#ja">Japanese</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('es');" tabindex="-1" href="#es">Spanish</a></td></tr><tr><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('nl');" tabindex="-1" href="#nl">Dutch</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('tlh');" tabindex="-1" href="#tlh">Klingon</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('sv');" tabindex="-1" href="#sv">Swedish</a></td></tr><tr><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('en');" tabindex="-1" href="#en">English</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('ko');" tabindex="-1" href="#ko">Korean</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('th');" tabindex="-1" href="#th">Thai</a></td></tr><tr><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('et');" tabindex="-1" href="#et">Estonian</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('lv');" tabindex="-1" href="#lv">Latvian</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('tr');" tabindex="-1" href="#tr">Turkish</a></td></tr><tr><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('fi');" tabindex="-1" href="#fi">Finnish</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('lt');" tabindex="-1" href="#lt">Lithuanian</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('uk');" tabindex="-1" href="#uk">Ukrainian</a></td></tr><tr><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('fr');" tabindex="-1" href="#fr">French</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('ms');" tabindex="-1" href="#ms">Malay</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('ur');" tabindex="-1" href="#ur">Urdu</a></td></tr><tr><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('de');" tabindex="-1" href="#de">German</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('mt');" tabindex="-1" href="#mt">Maltese</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('vi');" tabindex="-1" href="#vi">Vietnamese</a></td></tr><tr><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('el');" tabindex="-1" href="#el">Greek</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('no');" tabindex="-1" href="#no">Norwegian</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('cy');" tabindex="-1" href="#cy">Welsh</a></td></tr><tr><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('ht');" tabindex="-1" href="#ht">Haitian Creole</a></td><td><a onclick="return LanguageMenu.onclick('fa');" tabindex="-1" href="#fa">Persian</a></td><td> </td></tr></tbody></table><img style="height: 7px; width: 17px; border-width: 0px; left: 20px;" alt="" /></div></div></div></div><script type="text/javascript">// <![CDATA[

var LanguageMenu; var LanguageMenu_keys=["ar","bg","ca","zh-CHS","zh-CHT","cs","da","nl","en","et","fi","fr","de","el","ht","he","hi","mww","hu","id","it","ja","tlh","ko","lv","lt","ms","mt","no","fa","pl","pt","ro","ru","sk","sl","es","sv","th","tr","uk","ur","vi","cy"]; var LanguageMenu_values=["Arabic","Bulgarian","Catalan","Chinese Simplified","Chinese Traditional","Czech","Danish","Dutch","English","Estonian","Finnish","French","German","Greek","Haitian Creole","Hebrew","Hindi","Hmong Daw","Hungarian","Indonesian","Italian","Japanese","Klingon","Korean","Latvian","Lithuanian","Malay","Maltese","Norwegian","Persian","Polish","Portuguese","Romanian","Russian","Slovak","Slovenian","Spanish","Swedish","Thai","Turkish","Ukrainian","Urdu","Vietnamese","Welsh"]; var LanguageMenu_callback=function(){ }; var LanguageMenu_popupid='__LanguageMenu_popup';

// ]]></script></div><div id="CTFLinksPanel"><span id="ExternalLinksPanel"><a id="HelpLink" title="Help" href="https://go.microsoft.com/?linkid=9722454" target="_blank"> <img id="HelpImg" alt="" /></a> <a id="EmbedLink" title="Get this widget for your own site" href="javascript:Microsoft.Translator.FloaterShowEmbed()"> <img id="EmbedImg" alt="" /></a> <a id="ShareLink" title="Share translated page with friends" href="javascript:Microsoft.Translator.FloaterShowSharePanel()"> <img id="ShareImg" alt="" /></a> </span></div><div id="FloaterProgressBar"> </div></div><div id="WidgetFloaterCollapsed" style="display: none;" onmouseover="Microsoft.Translator.OnMouseOverFloater()"><span>TRANSLATE with </span><img id="CollapsedLogoImg" alt="" /></div><div id="FloaterSharePanel" style="display: none;"><div id="ShareTextDiv"><span id="ShareTextSpan"> COPY THE URL BELOW </span></div><div id="ShareTextboxDiv"><input id="ShareTextbox" onclick="this.select()" type="text" name="ShareTextbox" readonly="readonly" /> <!--a id="TwitterLink" title="Share on Twitter"> <img id="TwitterImg" /></a> <a-- id="FacebookLink" title="Share on Facebook"> <img id="FacebookImg" /></a--> <a id="EmailLink" title="Email this translation"> <img id="EmailImg" alt="" /></a></div><div id="ShareFooter"><span id="ShareHelpSpan"><a id="ShareHelpLink"> <img id="ShareHelpImg" alt="" /></a></span> <span id="ShareBackSpan"><a id="ShareBack" title="Back To Translation" href="javascript:Microsoft.Translator.FloaterOnShareBackClick()"> Back</a></span></div><input id="EmailSubject" type="hidden" name="EmailSubject" value="Check out this page in {0} translated from {1}" /> <input id="EmailBody" type="hidden" name="EmailBody" value="Translated: {0}%0d%0aOriginal: {1}%0d%0a%0d%0aAutomatic translation powered by Microsoft® Translator%0d%0ahttp://www.bing.com/translator?ref=MSTWidget" /> <input id="ShareHelpText" type="hidden" value="This link allows visitors to launch this page and automatically translate it to {0}." /></div><div id="FloaterEmbed" style="display: none;"><div id="EmbedTextDiv"><span id="EmbedTextSpan">EMBED THE SNIPPET BELOW IN YOUR SITE</span> <a id="EmbedHelpLink" title="Copy this code and place it into your HTML."> <img id="EmbedHelpImg" alt="" /></a></div><div id="EmbedTextboxDiv"><input id="EmbedSnippetTextBox" onclick="this.select()" type="text" name="EmbedSnippetTextBox" value="&lt;div id='MicrosoftTranslatorWidget' class='Dark' style='color:white;background-color:#555555'&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;script type='text/javascript'&gt;setTimeout(function(){var s=document.createElement('script');s.type='text/javascript';s.charset='UTF-8';s.src=((location &amp;&amp; location.href &amp;&amp; location.href.indexOf('https') == 0)?'https://ssl.microsofttranslator.com':'http://www.microsofttranslator.com')+'/ajax/v3/WidgetV3.ashx?siteData=ueOIGRSKkd965FeEGM5JtQ**&amp;ctf=true&amp;ui=true&amp;settings=manual&amp;from=en';var p=document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0]||document.documentElement;p.insertBefore(s,p.firstChild); },0);&lt;/script&gt;" readonly="readonly" /></div><div id="EmbedNoticeDiv"><span id="EmbedNoticeSpan">Enable collaborative features and customize widget: <a href="http://www.bing.com/widget/translator" target="_blank">Bing Webmaster Portal</a></span></div><div id="EmbedFooterDiv"><span id="EmbedBackSpan"><a title="Back To Translation" href="javascript:Microsoft.Translator.FloaterOnEmbedBackClick()">Back</a></span></div></div><script type="text/javascript">// <![CDATA[

var intervalId = setInterval(function () { if (MtPopUpList) { LanguageMenu = new MtPopUpList(); var langMenu = document.getElementById(LanguageMenu_popupid); var origLangDiv = document.createElement("div"); origLangDiv.id = "OriginalLanguageDiv"; origLangDiv.innerHTML = "<span id='OriginalTextSpan'>ORIGINAL: </span><span id='OriginalLanguageSpan'></span>"; langMenu.appendChild(origLangDiv); LanguageMenu.Init('LanguageMenu', LanguageMenu_keys, LanguageMenu_values, LanguageMenu_callback, LanguageMenu_popupid); window["LanguageMenu"] = LanguageMenu; clearInterval(intervalId); } }, 1);

// ]]></script></div>