bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Structure of weather prediction errors in stably-stratified atmospheric conditions
Authors: Esau Igor , Outten Stephen , Tolstykh Mikhail
Published: March 2020

Stably-stratified atmospheric conditions still challenge numerical weather forecast, especially in high latitudes where they are frequently observed all year around. In stably-stratified atmosphere, surface is colder than air above. Such conditions suppress vertical turbulent mixing and may lead to surface layer decoupling in numerical models. Enhanced mixing could prevent decoupling but being implemented without sufficient care results in damped response of the surface layer meteorological variables on fluctuations of the weather conditions. In this study, we investigate weather prediction errors related to such a damped response. We run a group of operational prediction models (HIRLAM-HARMONIE, SL-AV) with a set of different turbulence parametrizations that includes HARATU, TOUCANS, and pTKE schemes. The results are compared with real weather observations and idealized GABLS setups proposed for a high latitude domain. We found that the systematic warm temperature bias in the models is caused by too slow response of the modelled temperature on the implied cooling. The largest (and quickly growing) errors are found over the first few hours of cooling, whereas in longer perspective the errors diminish as the model equilibrates with more stationary weather conditions. We develop a theory that may explain the observed structure of weather prediction errors. The explanation is based on the well-known coupling between the turbulent mixing intensity and the thickness of the mixed layer embedded into the parametrization of the mixing length scale. The required enhanced mixing could be provided by the energy-flux balance scheme by Zilitinkevich et al., but it does not reduce the warm bias as it makes the mixed deeper and less responsive. We propose more accurate limitations on the mixed layer thickness to improve the temporal structure of the surface layer temperature response in the weather prediction models.
Predictability of ECMWF Cubic Octahedral Nature Run (ECO1280) using Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Global Forecast System (FV3GFS) Compared to Real-World Predictability
Authors: Casey Sean , Cucurull Lidia , Vidal Andres
Published: March 2020

Under the Quantitative Observing System Assessment Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA's) Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML) is preparing to utilize the 9-km-resolution European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECWMF) Cubic Octahedral grid global Nature Run (ECO1280) for observation simulation and conducting Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSEs).   As part of the OSSE calibration, and before experiments can be run, it needs to be shown that the forecast model used in the OSSEs does not do a better job in predicting the Nature Run meteorology than it does in predicting the real world. Otherwise, the conclusions from the OSSEs in such a configuration may misstate the potential impact of a given instrument. In this presentation, the predictability of the new global OSSE system being developed at NOAA will be discussed. The NOAA/National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere Global Forecast System (FV3GFS) is used to test predictability over the first two months of ECO1280 (October-November 2015), comparing forecasts using simulated observations with added errors to real-world observations.  Only conventional observations will be utilized in both cases.  
Experimental investigation of antigorite dehydration fabrics at high pressure and high temperature
Authors: Zhang Junfeng , Liu Wenlong , Wang Yongfeng
Published: March 2020

Antigorite dehydration is well known as a key process in convergent boundaries for the genesis of mantle wedge partial melting and intermediate-depth earthquakes. However, the crystallographic preferred orientations (CPOs) of prograde minerals from antigorite dehydration and its effects on seismic anisotropy of subducting slabs remain ambiguous and controversial. Here we report hydrostatic dehydration experiments on foliated serpentinized peridotite at pressures of 0.3-6 GPa and temperatures of 700-900 °C. Our results show that the orientations of prograde olivine inherit orientations from adjacent olivine grains in the olivine-rich layer by epitaxial growth. In contrast, olivine CPOs evolved with the grain size from fiber-[001] featuring clear [100] point maxima and [001] girdles for fine-grained olivine to orthorhombic patterns characterized by clear [100] and [001] point maxima for coarse-grained olivine, i.e., type-C CPO. We propose that the fine-grained fiber-[001] CPO is developed by topotactic growth at the onset of dehydration, while the orthorhombic type-C CPO for the coarse-grained olivine, especially the [001] point maximum along the lineation, is mainly developed by anisotropic growth resulting from anisotropic fluid flow during the dehydration. The developed olivine type-C CPO in the antigorite-rich layer after antigorite dehydration could explain the trench or strike parallel seismic anisotropy observed at convergent plate boundaries.
An Integrated Variational Framework for Mapping Evapotranspiration by Assimilating GOES LST and SMAP data
Authors: farhadi Leila , Abdolghafoorian Abedeh
Published: March 2020

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a key component of terrestrial water cycle that plays an important role in the Earth system. Aaccurate estimation of ET is crucial in various hydrological, meteorological, and agricultural applications. In situ measurements of ET are costly and cannot be readily scaled to regional scales relevant to weather and climate studies. Therefore, there is a need for techniques to make quantitative estimates of ET using land surface state observations that are widely available from remote sensing across a range of spatial scales.

In this work, A variational data (VDA) assimilation framework is developed to estimate ET by assimilating Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) soil moisture and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) land surface temperature data into a coupled dual-source energy and water balance model.

The VDA framework estimates the key parameters of the coupled model, which regulate the partitioning of available energy (i.e., neutral bulk heat transfer coefficient (CHN) and evaporative fraction from soil (EFS) and canopy (EFC)). The uncertainties of the retrieved unknown parameters are estimated through the inverse of Hessian of cost function, obtained using the Lagrangian methodology. Analysis of the second-order information provides a tool to identify the optimum parameter estimates and guides towards a well-posed estimation problem.

The VDA framework is implemented over an area of 21780 km2 in the U.S. Southern Great Plains (with computational grid size of 0.05 degree) during a nine-month period. The maps of retrieved evaporation and transpiration are used to study a number of dynamic feedback mechanisms between the land and atmosphere, such as the dependence of evapotranspiration on vegetation and soil moisture.
Climate change impacts on CO2 and CH4 exchange in an Arctic polygonal tundra depend on changes in vegetation and drainage
Authors: Grant Robert
Published: March 2020

Model projections of CO2 and CH4 exchange in Arctic tundra during the next century diverge widely.  In this modelling study, we used ecosys to examine how climate change will affect CO2 and CH4 exchange through its effects on net primary productivity (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh) and thereby on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in landform features (troughs, rims, centers) of a coastal polygonal tundra landscape at Barrow AK. The model was shown to simulate diurnal and seasonal variation in CO2 and CH4 fluxes associated with those in air and soil temperatures (Ta and Ts) and soil water contents (q) under current climate in 2014 and 2015. During RCP 8.5 climate change from 2015 to 2085, rising Ta, atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Ca) and precipitation  (P) increased NPP from 50 – 150 g C m-2 y-1,  consistent with current biometric estimates, to 200 – 250 g C m-2 y-1, depending on feature elevation. Concurrent increases in Rh were slightly smaller, so that net CO2 exchange rose from values of -25 (net emission) to +50 (net uptake) g C m-2 y-1 to ones of -10 to +65 g C m-2 y-1, again depending on feature elevation. Large increases in Rh with thawing permafrost were not modelled. Increases in net CO2 uptake were largely offset by increases in CH4 emissions from 0 – 6 g C m-2 y-1 to 1 – 20 g C m-2 y-1, depending on feature elevation, reducing gains in NEP. Increases in CH4 emissions with climate change were mostly attributed to increases in Ta, but also to increases in Ca and P. These increases in net CO2 uptake and CH4 emissions were modelled with hydrological boundary conditions that were assumed not to change with climate.  Both these increases were smaller if boundary conditions were gradually altered to increase landscape drainage during model runs with climate change. The model was then applied to the entire permafrost zone of North America to project RCP 8.5 climate change effects on active layer depth and ecosystem productivity by 2100.  
The Impact of Corner- and Thick-Film flow on Evaporation: A Micromodel Study
Authors: Ding Yi , Geistlinger Helmut
Published: March 2020

Evaporation from real soils is a rather complex process, where atmospheric processes and internal water-transport and phase-transfer processes interfere each other, often nonlinearly. Coupled surface flow and diffusion from interfering neighboring pores through viscous or turbulent boundary layer determine the upper (atmospheric) boundary condition for the capillary and viscous water flow through the pore network of the porous media.

Recent research studied the influence of corner flow and thin-film flow on the evaporation or drying process. At pore scale these studies use microfluidic setups (Eijkel et al., 2005; Zhao et al., 2016) or micro-models (Zhang et al., 2011; Prat, 2011; Vorhauer et al., 2015; Geistlinger et al., 2019). At REV-scale the studies are based on packed glass beads and sands (Hoogland et al., 2016). Parametrizations of the soil hydraulic functions for the very dry region include corner- and film flow contributions (e.g. Peters et al., 2015).

To the best of our knowledge there is no study of the impact of thick-film flow caused by the roughness of the pore-solid interface on the evaporation (drying) process.

The objective of this paper is to present a comparative study of the two relevant water transport mechanisms corner- and thick-film flow at pore scale using micro-model experiments. The micro-models exhibit the same pore structure, but are different in their surface roughness. This is achieved by producing them based on silicon (smooth surface) and glass ceramics (rough surface). This allows to reduce the complexity of the evaporation process and control the relevant process parameter.

 

[1] Geistlinger, H., Ding, Y., Apelt, B., Schlüter, S., Küchler, M., Reuter, D., et al. (2019). Evaporation study based on micromodel experiments: Comparison of theory and experiment. Water Resources Research, 55, 6653–6672. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018WR024647

[2] Geistlinger, H., & Leuther, F. (2018). Evaporation study for real soils based on HYPROP‐hydraulic functions and micro‐CT‐measured pore‐ size distribution. Vadose Zone Journal, 17(1). https://doi.org/10.2136/vzj2018.02.0041 180041
Quantitative analysis for amplitude anomalies at the seabed in the Laminaria High North West Shelf of Austuralia from 2D (1992 Caulerpa) and 3D (1995, Laminaria) pre-stack seismic data
Authors: Abdulkareem Lamees
Published: March 2020

Variation in seismic amplitudes provides different information from the subsurface such as evidence of hydrocarbon accumulation or changes in the lithologies. Furthermore, amplitude anomalies may also be created by thin layers. However, amplitude anomalies are affected by various factors that may not be caused by changes in the lithology or the existence of hydrocarbons such as those caused by acquisition or processing of the seismic data. Hence, these effects need to be understood, eliminated or reduced to background noise levels. Reprocessing of 2D (1992, Caulerpa) and 3D (1995, Laminaria) pre-stack seismic data were applied to examine the veracity of amplitude anomalies at the seabed  in the Laminaria High NW  Shelf of Australia. This study showed that by applying simple but similar processing steps to that applied to the 3D seismic volume that were used in previous studies; it is possible to produce similar amplitude anomalies at the seabed. However, it was noted that amplitude anomalies at the seabed are sensitive to the velocity model; in particular, when applying radon demultiple to suppress the multiple energy in the seismic data. The result of reprocessing these data suggested that the different results of mapping the seabed reflector in this study and previous studies could result from the different processing parameters applied to each data set. Furthermore, reprocessing of the 2D (1992, Caulerpa) that covered the Laminaria High showed similar but not identical amplitude anomalies compared with the original 3D seismic volume (1995), and it is proposed that these difference could be related to the processing applied on each data set. It is concluded in this study, that amplitude anomalies at the seabed are frequency dependent so any manipulation in the frequency filters could affect these amplitude anomalies.
The vertical distribution of PM2.5 and boundary-layer structure during winter haze in Nanjing
Authors: Zou Jun , Sun Jianning , Xiang Zixuan , Han Xiaomen , Ding Qiuji
Published: March 2020

At the end of November 2018, a heavy air pollution event was recorded by many meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), China. The local PM2.5 concentration exceeding to 200 µg m-3. This is the heaviest, longest and most widespread heavy-polluted weather in Jiangsu Province since 2018. Meanwhile, there has been severe foggy weather in Jiangsu Province, with visibility less than 200 meters in most parts of the province. In order to study the interaction between PM2.5 concentration and boundary layer height in the haze event, and the effect of fog on pollutant aggregation, the boundary layer structure of the continuous haze process was analyzed by using the SORPES Observation of Nanjing University's Xianlin Campus. The results of the analysis show that:
1, The PM2.5 concentration in the boundary layer is inversely correlated with the boundary layer height, the higher the PM2.5 concentration, the lower the boundary layer height during the day. By absorbing and scattering solar radiation, atmospheric aerosols affect the balance of surface energy and reduce the sensitive heat flux, thereby inhibiting the development of the boundary layer. While inhibited development of the boundary layer will limit the diffusion of atmospheric aerosols, thereby increasing the concentration of atmospheric aerosols in the boundary layer. In addition, nocturnal atmospheric aerosols absorb heat, leading to strong grounding inversion temperature the next day, further inhibiting the development of the daytime boundary layer. 
2, The fog-top inversion is very strong, far stronger than the inversion caused by atmospheric aerosols. Therefore, the heights of the boundary layer of fog days are much lower than that of non-fog days under the same pollution conditions.
3, During the fog, the PM2.5 concentration significantly reduced. And after the fog dissipated, due to the sun, the air moisture evaporation, PM2.5 concentration quickly reverted to the pre-fog state. Fog has limited wet removal of PM2.5.
4, Fog can inhibit the development of the boundary layer, with the continuation of the fog process, the pollution in the boundary layer continues to increase. At the same time, due to the inhibition of the development of the boundary layer, the diffusion of water vapor in the air is also affected, resulting in the boundary layer water vapor content is always in a high state, thus promoting the production of fog.
Was the onset of interhemispheric AMOC slightly prior to Antarctic glaciation at the Eocene-Oligocene transition?
Authors: Abelson Meir , Erez Jonathan
Published: March 2020

A compilation of benthic δ18O from the whole Atlantic and the Southern Ocean (Atlantic sector), shows two major jumps in the interbasinal gradient of d18O (Δδ18O) during the Eocene and the Oligocene: One at ~40 Ma and the second concomitant with the isotopic event of the Eocene-Oligocene transition (EOT), ~33.7 Ma ago. From previously published circulation models, we show that the first Δδ18O jump reflects the thermal isolation of Antarctica associated with the proto-Antarctic circumpolar current (ACC). The second marks the onset of interhemispheric northern-sourced circulation cell, similar to the modern Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The onset of AMOC-like circulation probably slightly preceded (100-300 ky) the EOT, as we show by the high resolution profiles of δ18O and δ13C previously published from DSDP/ODP sites in the Southern Ocean and South Atlantic. We suggest that while the shallow proto-ACC supplied the energy for deep ocean convection in the Southern Hemisphere, the onset of the interhemispheric northern circulation cell was due to the significant EOT intensification of deepwater formation in the North Atlantic driven by the Nordic anti-estuarine circulation. This onset of the interhemispheric northern-sourced circulation cell could have prompted the EOT global cooling.
In-Situ Validation of Water Quality Algorithms and Monitoring of Irish Lakes using Sentinel 2 Imagery
Authors: Karki Sita , French Kevin , McCarthy Valerie , Hanafin Jennifer , Jennings Eleanor , Delaney Conor , Veerkamp Vicky , Golden Aaron , McKinstry Alastair , Ahmed Moataz
Published: March 2020

Through Remote Sensing of Irish Surface Water (INFER) project, we are validating the algorithms to measure the  water quality using Sentinel 2 imagery, which comprises of two European Space Agency (ESA) terrestrial satellites with combined temporal resolution of 5 days. The project is focused on selection of optimal algorithms that will be applicable in Irish context in relation to the high cloud cover and relatively small sizes of the water bodies. The current procedure entails collection of reflectance data from the lakes during the Sentinel overpass as it helps to identify the correct atmospheric correction algorithm. Field radiometry tasks were carried out using TRIOS RAMSES radiometers. Standard field procedures were employed for acquiring glint free reflectance from the water bodies.

Historical data collected from the 11 lakes, which had field bathymetry survey data, were analysed in order to determine the influence of environmental conditions on the quality of samples. Based on the analysis, recommendations to collect field samples from areas deeper than 10 m and 30 m away from the shoreline were provided in order to avoid the reflectance from the bottom and the surrounding topography. A site selection process was undertaken during the spring of 2019 to shortlist appropriate sites for field validation of satellite-derived products. A total of fifteen lakes were identified for field validation based on several criteria so as to ensure lakes with varying size, depth, trophic status and Water Framework Directive (WFD) status . In addition, a timetable for proposed sampling was established by drawing up a timetable of satellite passes starting from summer of 2019. C2RCC and Acolite processors are being used to compute the chlorophyll and turbidity from identified lakes. Considering the fast changing weather condition of Ireland, it was difficult to obtain the exact overlap between the sentinel overpass and the field sampling. In order to address this issue, the field samples collected within 10 days from the sensor overpass were considered for the field validation. Study of the satellite derived water chemistry data showed that the data collected outside of that time window may not represent the natural fluctuation that occurs in the water bodies.

The end product of this project is the web platform with the access to Sentinel 2 MSI data products where users can visualize the water quality products for Ireland. This platform will promote the use of earth observation data for inland water quality monitoring and would enable sustainable utilization of the water resources.
A process-oriented approach for mining marine heatwaves with a time series of raster formatted products
Authors: Xue Cunjin , Jing Changfeng
Published: March 2020

A marine heatwave (MHW) is defined as a coherent area of extreme warm sea surface temperature that persists for days to months, which has a property of evolution from production through development to death in space and time. MHWs usually relates to climatic extremes that can have devastating and long-term impacts on ecosystems, with subsequent socioeconomic consequences. Long term remote sensing products make it possible for mining successive MHWs at global scale. However, more literatures focus on a spatial distribution at a fixed time snapshot or a temporal statistic at a fixed grid cell of MWHs. As few considering the temporal evolution of MWHs, it is greater challenge to mining their dynamic changes of spatial structure. Thus, this manuscript proposes a process-oriented approach for identifying and tracking MWHs, named as PoAITM. The PoAITM considers a dynamic evolution of a MWH, which consists of three steps. The first step uses the threshold-based algorithm to identifying the time series of grid pixels which meets the MWH definition, called as MWH pixels; the second adopts the spatial proximities to connect the MWH pixels at the snapshots, and transforms them spatial objects, called as MWH objects; the third combines the dynamic characteristics and spatiotemporal topologies of MWH objects between the previous and next snapshots to identify and track them belonging to the same ones. The final extract MWH with a property from production through development to death is defined as a MWH process. Comparison with the prevail methods of tracking MHWs, The PoAITM has three advantages. Firstly, PoAITM combines the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of MWH to identify and track the MWH objects. The second considers not only the spatial structure of MWH at current snapshot, also the previous and next ones, to track the MWH process, which ensures the MWH completeness in a temporal domain. The third is the dynamic behaviors of MWH, e.g. developing, merging, splitting, are also found between the successive MWH objects. Finally, we address the global MWHs exploring from the sea surface temperature products during the period of January 1982 to December 2018. The results not only show well-known knowledge, but also some new findings about evolution characteristics of MWHs, which may provide new references for further study on global climate change.
The Common Community Physics Package (CCPP): bridging the gap between research and operations to improve U.S. numerical weather prediction capabilities
Authors: Heinzeller Dom , Firl Grant , Bernardet Ligia , Carson Laurie , Zhang Man , Kain Jack
Published: March 2020

Improving numerical weather prediction systems depends critically on the ability to transition innovations from research to operations (R2O) and to provide feedback from operations to research (O2R). This R2O2R cycle, sometimes referred to as "crossing the valley of death", has long been identified as a major challenge for the U.S. weather enterprise.

As part of a broader effort to bridge this gap and advance U.S. weather prediction capabilities, the Developmental Testbed Center (DTC) with staff at NOAA and NCAR has developed the Common Community Physics Package (CCPP) for application in NOAA's Unified Forecasting System (UFS). The CCPP consists of a library of physical parameterizations and a framework, which interfaces the physics with atmospheric models based on metadata information and standardized interfaces. The CCPP physics library contains physical parameterizations from the current operational U.S. global, mesoscale and high-resolution models, future implementation candidates, and additional physics from NOAA, NCAR and other organizations. The range of physics options in the CCPP physics library enables the application of the UFS - as well as every other model using the CCPP - across scales, from now-casting to seasonal and from high-resolution regional to global ensembles.

While the initial development of the CCPP was centered around the FV3 (Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere) dynamical core of the UFS, its focus has since widened. The CCPP is also used by the DTC Single Column Model to support a hierarchical testing strategy, and by the next generation NEPTUNE (Navy Environmental Prediction sysTem Utilizing the Numa corE) model of the Naval Research Laboratory. Further, and most importantly, NOAA and NCAR recently signed an agreement to jointly develop the CCPP framework as a single, standardized way to interface physics with their models of the atmosphere (and other compartments of the Earth system). This places the CCPP in the heart of several of the U.S. flagship models and opens the door for bringing innovations from a large research community into operations.

In this contribution, we will present a brief overview of the concept of the CCPP, its technical design and the requirements for parameterizations to be considered as CCPP-compliant. We will describe the integration of CCPP in the UFS and touch upon the challenges in creating a flexible modeling framework while maintaining high computational performance. We will also provide information on how to obtain, use and contribute to the CCPP, as well as on the future development of the CCPP framework and upcoming additions to the CCPP physics library.
2017-2019 SSE sequence and its interaction with large earthquakes in Mexico
Authors: Kazachkina Ekaterina , Radiguet Mathilde , Cotte Nathalie , Jara Jorge , Walpersdorf Andrea , Kostoglodov Vladimir
Published: March 2020

An intriguing sequence of a 2-stage SSE in Guerrero and a simultaneous SSE in Oaxaca took place in Mexico in 2017-2019. Three large earthquakes occur during these SSEs adding complexity to the observed surface deformations. The objective of this work is to explain the interaction between the overlapping seismic and aseismic events through the analysis of continuous GPS observations.

We perform kinematic inversion of the GPS time series solving for the cumulative slip distribution on the subduction interface due to two SSEs, using Independent Component Analysis Inversion Method (ICAIM, Gualandi, 2015). The daily position time series for 2017-2019 are obtained by processing continuous data using GAMIT/GLOBK 10.7 (Herring et al, 2018). Strong postseismic signals generated by the following earthquakes 08/09/2017 Mw8.2 in Tehuantepec, 19/09/2017 Mw7.1 in Puebla-Morelos and 16/02/2018 Mw7.2 in Pinotepa are removed using the ICA decomposition.

Our results show complex slip evolution on the subduction interface. We observe a clear change of cumulative seismic moment release rate after large seismic events of 2017 and after the earthquake in Pinotepa in 2018. The occurrence of Mw8.2 and Mw7.1 events notably slowed down the slip propagation of the Guerrero SSE. Continuous SSE in Oaxaca propagates from the northeast near the city of Oaxaca (-97.00°E, 16.70°N) towards the southwest approaching Pinotepa (-98.00°E, 17.00°N). Guerrero SSE migrates from the origin of its 1st phase near Tecpan (-100.50°E, 17.50°N) southeastwards to Acapulco (-99.50°E, 17.20°N) where the 2nd stage develops. Therefore the stress changes induced by the two aseismic events likely triggered the Mw7.2 Pinotepa earthquake (-98.01°E, 16.22°N).
Analysis of spatiotemporal patterns and driving forces for land degradation and restoration in Mongolia from 1990 to 2015
Authors: Wang Juanle , Wei Haishuo , Yao Jinyi , Shao Yating , Liang Xiya , Chonokhuu Sonomdagva , Ochir Altansukh , Davaasuren Davaadorj
Published: March 2020

      Land degradation is an important ecological and environmental problem facing the world. “Land Degradation Neutrality” is one of the core indicators in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals for 2030. However, achieving this is a serious challenge in Mongolia where land degradation continues. The increasingly serious land degradation in Mongolia has had a direct impact on the ecology of the entire Mongolian plateau and adjacent regions. Land degradation and restoration in this region fluctuate spatially and temporally because of the impacts of global climate change and human activity.

      We obtained land cover data for Mongolia for 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2015 with a resolution of 30 m using the object-oriented remote sensing image interpretation method.Land cover types include forest, real steppe, meadow steppe, desert steppe, cropland, built area, water, sand, and barren land. Based on a spatial analysis module in a geographic information system, the multi-period land cover data were superimposed and calculated. We defined the land degradation cover types and restoration cover types in the processing. Thus, a serials of high-resolution distribution maps of land degradation and restoration for fixed monitoring time intervals were obtained for first time.

      We analyzed trends in land degradation and restoration and estimated the typical areas of each in Mongolia. We specifically analyzed the process of land cover change in these areas, comprehensively considered natural factors and human activities driving this change. Finally, we proposed targeted strategies to control the land degradation and promote land restoration in different regions in Mongolia.
Hydro-meteorological risks perception and preparedness in a multi-hazard environment: The case of Greece
Authors: Papagiannaki Katerina , Diakakis Michalis , Kotroni Vassiliki , Lagouvardos Kostas , Andreadakis Emmanuel
Published: March 2020

Laymen’s awareness for the natural hazards and their perception of the associated risks at the local level have been acknowledged widely as key factor for the success of any risk mitigation initiative. It is therefore particularly beneficial to find out how people's risk perception is shaped in a multi-hazard environment, such as that of Eastern Mediterranean, and how it affects individual preparedness. To this end, we have conducted an online survey aimed at Greek citizens in order to better understand their risk perception among various hydro-meteorological hazards, including geophysical hazards for comparison, and to evaluate their coping capacity. The survey questionnaire received more than 2,300 responses from across Greece. The analysis of the questionnaire has been performed in the frame of the project “THESPIAN II – Development of synergistic and integrated methods and tools for monitoring, management and forecasting of Environmental parameters and pressures”.

Statistical results show that people consider hydro-meteorological hazards less worrying and dangerous than earthquakes. However, in contrast to earthquakes, it was found that increase in hydro-meteorological risks perception enhances preparedness i.e. the adoption of adequate protective measures, except of the private insurance coverage which was found to be purely a matter of economic criteria. Experience was found to have a significant impact on both risk perception and preparedness for all types of natural hazards. However, with respect to hydro-meteorological hazards, its effect decreases with time. Results also highlight the important role of a focused and coordinated effort by authorities and scientists to inform citizens and build a trustful relationship in motivating individual preparedness, as well as other interesting statistically significant relationships with participants demographics and other factors.
Assessment of the JULES model surface soil moisture using in-situ observations over the Brazilian North East semiarid region
Authors: Zeri Marcelo , Williams Karina , Blyth Eleanor , Cunha Ana Paula , Marthews Toby , Hayman Garry , Galdos Marcelo
Published: March 2020

Monitoring of soil water is essential to assess drought risk over rainfed agriculture. Soil water indicates the onset or progress of dry spells, the start of the rainy season and good periods for sowing or harvesting. Monitoring soil water over rainfed agriculture can be a valuable tool to support field activities and the knowledge of climate risks.

A network of soil moisture sensors was established over the Brazilian North East semiarid region in 2015 with measurements at 10 and 20 cm, together with rainfall and other variables in a subset of locations. The data are currently being used to assess the available water over the region in monthly bulletins and reports of potential impacts on yields.

In this work, we present a comparison of a dataset of observations from 2015 to 2019 with the soil water estimated by the JULES land surface model (the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator). Overall, the model captures the spatial and temporal variability observed in the measured data well, with an average correlation coefficient of 0.6 across the domain. The performance was compared for each station, resulting in a selection of locations with significant correlation.

Based on the regression results, we derive modelled soil moisture for the time span of the JULES run (1979 to 2016). The modeled data enabled the calculation of a standardized soil moisture anomaly (SSMA). The values of SSMA in the period were in agreement with the patterns of drought in the region, especially the recent long-term drought in the Brazilian semiarid region, with significant dry years in 2012, 2013 and 2015. Further analysis will focus on comparisons with other drought indices and measures of impacts on yields at the municipality level.
Facilitated group discussion method for prevention sexual harassment
Authors: Vehkamäki Hanna , Lauri Anniina , Tuominen Eija , Salmesvuori Päivi
Published: March 2020

 #metoo movement has raised discussion on the extent of sexual harassment also in the academia. In 2018 Helsinki Association of Women Researchers (Finland) conducted a qualitative survey on experiences of sexual harassment and opinions on definition of sexual harassment among Finnish universities. The results show that sexual harassment and related power misuse are problems also in the Finnish research and higher education community. While there are clear cut cases that can be immediately recognized as harassment, a large fraction of the cases belong to the grey area, causing hesitation and deficiencies in reporting and actions. This, among personal suffering, also maintains a risk that the borderline behaviour escalates to the next level. Common definitions of sexual harassment include phrases such as ‘unwanted’ or ‘without consent’, which are difficult to interpret unambiguously. Beside provocative statements, there has also been genuine concern that mixed gender workplace social interaction can be interpreted as harassment, which in the worst case can lead to even increased segregation of professional networks based on gender, which is a severe threat to equal opportunities. We have developed and tested a facilitated group discussion activity for workplace communities to establish common understanding for the borders of sexual harassment. The activity involves discussions on hypothetical borderline harassment cases in small groups. The aim is not to form an unequivocal verdict on whether these cases are harassment or not, but discuss which factors affect the assessment. The diversity of opinions rising from, for example, personal and cultural differences is collected on an online-based white-board. We have conducted the activity as part of departmental recreation days and staff training events, and the participants feedback indicates that it is a useful tool in making people more aware of the differences in personal borderlines. Facilitated discussions help in creating an atmosphere where people, irrespective of their position in the power structure, feel more free to express if the limits of their comfort zone have been breached, and where drawing a line is respected rather than ridiculed. The activity not only helps in preventing sexual harassment and bullying, but also stress and burnout by creating a culture where protecting personal limits is permitted and respected.
Quantifying connectivity uncertainty arising from circulation modelling inaccuracy.
Authors: Vissenaekens Elise , Guizien Katell
Published: March 2020

Ocean modelling has become an increasingly important tool to study population connectivity and is our only tool to anticipate changes in dispersal routes in future climates. To estimate the uncertainties in model predictions, a comparison was made between the simulated currents and in situ observations in the Gulf of Lion over the period of 2009-2013. The uncertainties in Eulerian current values were described using several statistical parameters, like the bias, the root mean square (RMSE), the naturalised root mean square (NRMSE), the Hannah and Heinold parameter (HH) and the correlation. Another parameter that was introduced was the correctness, which states the percentage of time the model was deemed “correct”, based on low HH values (<75%) and high correlation (>0.25). So far, the model simulated the flow speed correctly 60-70% of the time and the relative deviation between observed and simulated flow speed was about 10%. Furthermore, ensembles of Lagrangian tracks were simulated accounting for uncertainties in Eulerian flow speed. These uncertainties were either correlated to speed values or chosen according to their statistical distribution. The Lagrangian tracks were analysed to construct connectivity matrices with and without these Eulerian uncertainties. Resulting deviation in retention and larval transfer arising from flow speed uncertainty were quantified.
Evolution of supraglacial lakes on the Larsen B ice shelf in the decades before it collapsed
Authors: Leeson Amber , Foster Elliott , Rice Amiee , Gourmelen Noel , van Wessem Melchior
Published: March 2020

The Larsen B ice shelf collapsed in 2002 losing an area twice the size of Greater London to the sea (3000 km2), in an event associated with widespread supraglacial lake drainage. Here, we use optical and radar satellite imagery to investigate the evolution of the ice shelf’s lakes in the decades preceding collapse. We find 1) that lakes spread southwards in the preceding decades at a rate commensurate with meltwater saturation of the shelf surface, 2) no trend in lake size, suggesting an active supraglacial drainage network which evacuated excess water off the shelf and 3) lakes mostly re-freeze in winter but the few lakes that do drain are associated with ice break up 2-4 years later. Given the relative scale of lake drainage and shelf break up, however, it is not clear from our data whether lake drainage is more likely a cause, or an effect, of ice shelf collapse.
Derivation of metallic plasma layers in Earth's ionosphere (Sporadic E layer) from FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC satellites at a global scale
Authors: Yu Bingkun , Scott Christopher , Xue Xianghui , Yue Xinan , Dou Xiankang
Published: March 2020

In the past decades, the scintillations of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) radio occultation (RO) measurements have been widely employed to study the occurrence of sporadic E (Es) layers. Recent results indicated that amplitude scintillation index (S4max) observations can be used to study the intensity of global Es layers. In this study, we show a statistical assessment of the hourly ionospheric Es layer measurements between 90 and 130 km from FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC satellites. The Es observations from FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC satellites are in agreement with those from ground-based ionosonde stations at different latitudes. With the successful launch of FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2, an accurate, high-resolution (< 5° ×5°×1 hour) map of Es layers on a global scale is available in the hopeful future.
Evaluating Different Learning Tools for Spring Wheat Nitrogen Content Estimation from UAV-Remote Sensing Data
Authors: Shafian Sanaz , Walsh Olga
Published: March 2020

Monitoring the nitrogen status of spring wheat under different nitrogen treatments is important for effective nitrogen management in precision agriculture. Unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) integrated with machine learning techniques shows to be a promising tool for precisely estimating crop nitrogen content. In this study UAV-base spectral indices, artificial neural network model (ANN) and Support Vector Machine (SVM) were used to estimate spring wheat nitrogen content. The experiment was conducted on 144 spring wheat plots located at Parma Research and Extension Center, ID on six different spring wheat varieties and six different nitrogen rates. A rotary-wing UAV equipped with a multispectral sensor (RededgeM, Micasense Systems) was used to acquire very high spatial resolution images of the related plots. Validation of the methods was based on the cross-validation procedure and using three statistical indicators: R2, RMSE and relative RMSE. The cross-validated results identified all models providing accurate estimates of canopy nitrogen content in spring wheat crop.
Rust precipitates in drainage systems of peaty acid sulphate soils in Finland
Authors: Yli-Halla Markku , Kekkonen Jarkko , Lötjönen Timo , Marttila Hannu
Published: March 2020

Clogging of subsurface pipe drainage systems by rust precipitates is a problem in many cultivated areas and especially on the coast of Ostrobothnia, northwestern Finland. The subsurface drainage pipes need to be flushed every few years to remove the rust, which causes additional maintenance costs. These problems are particularly common in acid sulphate (AS) soils that have peat horizons on top of sulfidic materials. These soils are often wet, and the drainage water contains high dissolved iron concentration, commonly above 20 mg l-1. Reducing conditions prevail in certain horizons and oxidation of sulfidic minerals and low pH are typical of the horizons above, all resulting in mobilization of several elements. Upon entering the aerobic drainage pipe dissolved iron is oxidized and readily precipitates as rust. In dry summers, the precipitate is typically hardened and the whole pipe drainage system can be blocked. Minerals containing sulphur (S) may also be precipitated in the pipes. The fresh precipitates can adsorb heavy metals that occur in substantial concentrations in AS drainage waters. In this study, 10 rust samples were collected from ditches and wells. All sites, except one, had a 20-70 cm peaty topsoil. A comprehensive chemical analysis was carried out and the precipitates were investigated with a scanning electron microscope (SEM). Colours of the samples were strong brown or reddish yellow (Munsell notation 7.5YR 5/6-6/8). Silicon content was only 0.3-0.9%, indicating the absence of actual soil material in the precipitates. The material contained 27-49% organic matter (1.9 x C), co-precipitated from the humic substances of drainage water. Iron was by far the most abundant element. If all Fe is contained in ferrihydrite (66% Fe), this mineral constituted 35-63% (mean 46%) of the precipitate while aluminium hydroxide (34% Al) constituted 0.7-9% (mean 5%). Even though most drainage waters were rich in S (commonly above 40 mg l-1, the maximum S concentration of the precipitates was only 1.9% and the mean at 0.7%. Sulphur-containing minerals jarosite and schwertmannite were not detected in the SEM images, either, suggesting that these minerals are not precipitated from AS drainage waters. Dissolved heavy metals are leached from AS soils but they were not markedly co-precipitated in our samples. The mean concentration of Cd was only 1 mg kg-1 and Ni 12 mg kg-1, Cr 33 mg kg-1, Cu and Zn 32 mg kg-1 while Mn was more abundant, 355 mg kg-1. In our peaty AS soils there is thus substantial mobilization of Fe and a flux out of the soil and a new solid phase is formed in the drainage pipes and ditches constituting mostly of iron hydroxide and humic substances. If dredged, application of this material onto the fields seems not to pose major environmental hazards.
Exploring Changes in Hydrogeological Risk Awareness and Preparedness over Time: A Case Study in North-eastern Italy
Authors: Mondino Elena , Scolobig Anna , Borga Marco , Albrecht Frederike , Mård Johanna , Weyrich Philippe , Di Baldassarre Giuliano
Published: March 2020

Hydrogeological hazards are increasingly causing damage worldwide due to climatic and socio economic changes, making it crucial to build resilient communities to reduce potential losses. To this end, one of the first steps is to understand how people perceive potential threats around them. This study aims at exploring how risk awareness of and preparedness to face hydrological hazards changes over time. A cohort study was carried out in two villages in the North-eastern Italian Alps, Romagnano and Vermiglio, affected by debris flows in 2000 and 2002. Surveys were conducted in 2005 and 2018, and results compared. The survey data show that both awareness and preparedness decreased over time. We attribute this change to the fact that no event occurred in a long time and to a lack of proper risk communication strategies. Besides contributing to sociohydrological modelling by providing empirical data on human behaviour dynamics, the outcomes of this study are a valuable input for effective risk communication strategies.
Geochemistry and origin of a new-type of Zr-Nb-Y-REE deposit in highly-evolved alkali granite, Chungju area, South Korea
Authors: No Sang-Gun , Park Maeng-Eon , White Noel C.
Published: March 2020

In the Chungju area, Korea, highly enriched Zr-Nb-Y-REE deposits occur in subhorizontal layered Paleozoic granitic rocks (331±1.5 Ma), which can be divided into layered alkali granite, alkali aplite, and pegmatite. The rocks are mainly composed of alkali feldspar, quartz, and microcrystalline zircon. The ubiquitous zircon is the distinctive feature of the alkaline rocks, which plot with within plate granite, anorogenic granite, and ultrapotassic rocks, and show very similar REE patterns. Alkali aplite has especially high total rare earth elements and negative europium anomalies compared to the layered alkali granite. The Zr-Nb-Y-REE mineralization occurs as zircon-magnetite bands that are associated with several REE minerals. Repeated graded textures of layered alkali granites with interlayered Zr-Nb-Y-REE mineralization can be explained by gravity accumulation in the late magmatic stage. The compositions of zircons plot between the late magmatic and hydrothermal fields. The REE patterns of zircon-rich mineralization shows slightly negative slopes, whereas zircons show positive slopes. This can be explained by the HREE being strongly partitioned into zircon grains from the melt. Zircons with low total REE contents show high positive Ce anomalies. Although zircon analyses were conducted on one sample from a small area, it shows variable Ce anomalies and TREE, which indicates the zircons crystallized under conditions of rapidly changing oxygen fugacity, as the REE contents of zircon are related to the oxygen fugacity of the melt. The limited Th/U ratios of zircons indicate that they crystallized during a simple magmatic event, and were not affected by hydrothermal alteration and metamorphism. Here we suggest a flotation, aggregation, and gravity accumulation model can explain settle down of microcrystalline zircon and magnetite grains in fluid rich alkaline melt. This is the first report on highly evolved alkali granite that associated with Zr-Nb-Y-REE mineralization. The features displayed in these deposits have important implications for the evolution of alkali magmas.