Inductive reasoning with large language models: a simulated randomized controlled trial for epilepsy
Authors: Goldenholz Daniel M. , Goldenholz Shira R. , Habib Sara , Westover M. Brandon 
Published: March 2024

Importance

The analysis of electronic medical records at scale to learn from clinical experience is currently very challenging. The integration of artificial intelligence (AI), specifically foundational large language models (LLMs), into an analysis pipeline may overcome some of the current limitations of modest input sizes, inaccuracies, biases, and incomplete knowledge bases.

Objective

To explore the effectiveness of using an LLM for generating realistic clinical data and other LLMs for summarizing and synthesizing information in a model system, simulating a randomized clinical trial (RCT) in epilepsy to demonstrate the potential of inductive reasoning via medical chart review.

Design

An LLM-generated simulated RCT based on a RCT for treatment with an anti-seizure medication, cenobamate, including a placebo arm and a full-strength drug arm, evaluated by an LLM-based pipeline versus a human reader.

Setting

Simulation based on realistic seizure diaries, treatment effects, reported symptoms and clinical notes generated by LLMs with multiple different neurologist writing styles.

Participants

Simulated cohort of 240 patients, divided 1:1 into placebo and drug arms.

Intervention

Utilization of LLMs for the generation of clinical notes and for the synthesis of data from these notes, aiming to evaluate the efficacy and safety of cenobamate in seizure control either with a human evaluator or AI-pipeline.

Measures

The AI and human analysis focused on identifying the number of seizures, symptom reports, and treatment efficacy, with statistical analysis comparing the 50%-responder rate and median percentage change between the placebo and drug arms, as well as side effect rates in each arm.

Results

AI closely mirrored human analysis, demonstrating the drug’s efficacy with marginal differences (<3%) in identifying both drug efficacy and reported symptoms.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study showcases the potential of LLMs accurately simulate and analyze clinical trials. Significantly, it highlights the ability of LLMs to reconstruct essential trial elements, identify treatment effects, and recognize reported symptoms, within a realistic clinical framework. The findings underscore the relevance of LLMs in future clinical research, offering a scalable, efficient alternative to traditional data mining methods without the need for specialized medical language training.

Key Points

Question

Can large language models (LLMs) effectively simulate and analyze a randomized clinical trial, accurately summarizing and synthesizing clinical data to evaluate drug efficacy and identify relevant reported symptoms?

Findings

In a simulated study using LLMs to generate and analyze clinical notes for a trial comparing a drug to a placebo in epilepsy treatment, AI-driven analyses were found to closely match human expert evaluations. The process demonstrated the ability of LLMs to accurately capture treatment effects and identify reported symptoms, with minimal differences in outcomes between the human and LLM analyses.

Meaning

The use of LLMs in simulating and analyzing clinical trials offers a promising approach to developing inductive reasoning systems based on electronic medical records. This could revolutionize the way clinical trials are conducted and analyzed, enabling rapid, accurate assessments of therapeutic efficacy and safety without the need for specialized medical language training.