Predictors of Incident Viral Symptoms Ascertained in the Era of Covid-19
Authors: Marcus Gregory M , Olgin Jeffrey E , Peyser Noah D , Vittinghoff Eric , Yang Vivian , Joyce Sean , Avram Robert , Tison Geoffrey H , Wen David , Butcher Xochitl , Eitel Helena , Pletcher Mark J 
Published: September 2020

Background

In the absence of universal testing, effective therapies, or vaccines, identifying risk factors for viral infection, particularly readily modifiable exposures and behaviors, is required to identify effective strategies against viral infection and transmission.

Methods

We conducted a world-wide mobile application-based prospective cohort study available to English speaking adults with a smartphone. We collected self-reported characteristics, exposures, and behaviors, as well as smartphone-based geolocation data. Our main outcome was incident symptoms of viral infection, defined as fevers and chills plus one other symptom previously shown to occur with SARS-CoV-2 infection, determined by daily surveys.

Findings

Among 14, 335 participants residing in all 50 US states and 93 different countries followed for a median 21 days (IQR 10-26 days), 424 (3%) developed incident viral symptoms. In pooled multivariable logistic regression models, female biological sex (odds ration [OR] 1.75, 95% CI 1.39-2.20, p<0.001), anemia (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.16-1.81, p=0.001), hypertension (OR 1.35, 95% CI 1.08-1.68, p=0.007), cigarette smoking in the last 30 days (OR 1.86, 95% CI 1.35-2.55, p<0.001), any viral symptoms among household members 6-12 days prior (OR 2.06, 95% CI 1.67-2.55, p<0.001), and the maximum number of individuals the participant interacted with within 6 feet in the past 6-12 days (OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.06-1.25, p<0.001) were each associated with a higher risk of developing viral symptoms. Conversely, a higher subjective social status (OR 0.87, 95% CI 0.83-0.93, p<0.001), at least weekly exercise (OR 0.57, 95% CI 0.47-0.70, p<0.001), and sanitizing one’s phone (OR 0.79, 95% CI 0.63-0.99, p=0.037) were each associated with a lower risk of developing viral symptoms.

Interpretation

While several immutable characteristics were associated with the risk of developing viral symptoms, multiple immediately modifiable exposures and habits that influence risk were also observed, potentially identifying readily accessible strategies to mitigate risk in the Covid-19 era.

Funding

This study was funded by IU2CEB021881-01 and 3U2CEB021881-05S1 from the NIH/ NIBIB to Drs. Marcus, Olgin, and Pletcher.

Research in context

Evidence before this study

Predictors of incident viral infection have been determined largely from cross-sectional studies prone to recall bias among individuals representing geographically constrained regions, and most were conducted before the era of the current Covid-19 pandemic.

Added value of this study

We conducted a world-wide, mobile application-based, longitudinal cohort study utilizing time-updated predictors and outcomes, providing novel and current information regarding risk-factors for incident viral symptoms based on real-time information in the era of Covid-19.

Implications of all the available evidence

These data suggest that certain immutable characteristics influence the risk for incident viral symptoms, while smoking cessation, physical distancing to avoid contact with individuals outside the household, regular exercise, and sanitizing one’s phone may each help mitigate the risk of viral infection.