Recommendation System for an Online Shopping Pay-Later System Using a Multistage Approach: A Case Study from Indonesia
Authors: Suwarningsih Wiwin , Nuryani Nuryani 
Published: August 2024

Aim/Purpose: In this study, we developed a recommendation system model designed to support decision-makers in identifying consumers eligible for pay-later options via consensus-based decision-making. This approach was chosen due to the high and complex risks involved, such as delayed payments, challenges in reaching consumers, and issues of bad credit.

Background: The “pay-later” option, which allows consumers to postpone payment for e-commerce purchases, offers convenience and flexibility but also introduces several challenges: (i) by enabling payment deferral, merchants face financial risks, including potential delays or defaults in payment, adversely affecting their cash flow and profitability; and (ii) this payment delay can also heighten the risk of fraud, including identity theft and unauthorized transactions.

Methodology: This study initiated a risk analysis utilizing the ROAD process. Considering contemporary economic developments and advancements in neural networks, integrating these networks into risk assessment has become crucial. Consequently, model development involved the amalgamation of three deep learning methods – CNN (Convolutional Neural Networks), RNN (Recurrent Neural Networks), and LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) – to address various risk alternatives and facilitate multi-stage decision-making recommendations.

Contribution: Our primary contribution is threefold. First, our study identified potential consumers by prioritizing those with the smallest associated problem consequence values. Second, we achieved an optimal recall value using a candidate generator. Last, we categorized consumers to assess their eligibility for pay-later rights.

Findings: The findings from this study indicate that our multi-stage recommendation model is effective in minimizing the risk associated with consumer debt repayment. This method of consumer selection empowers policymakers to make informed decisions regarding which consumers should be granted pay-later privileges.

Recommendations for Practitioners: This recommendation system is proposed to several key parties involved in the development, implementation, and use of pay-later systems. These parties include E-commerce Executive Management for financial analysis and risk evaluation, the Risk Management Team to assess and manage risks related to users utilizing Pay-Later services, and Sales Managers to integrate Pay-Later services into sales strategies.

Recommendation for Researchers: Advanced fraud detection mechanisms were implemented to prevent unauthorized transactions effectively. The goal was to cultivate user confidence in the safety of their financial data by ensuring secure payment processing.

Impact on Society: Ensuring consumers understand the terms and conditions of pay-later arrangements, including interest rates, repayment schedules, and potential fees, is crucial. Providing clear and transparent information, along with educating consumers about their financial responsibilities, helps prevent misunderstandings and disputes.

Future Research: Our future development plans involve the ongoing assessment of the system’s performance to enhance prediction accuracy. This includes updating models and criteria based on feedback and changes in economic or market conditions. Upholding compliance with security and data privacy regulations necessitates the implementation of protective measures to safeguard consumer information. The implementation of such a system requires careful consideration to ensure fairness and adherence to legal standards. Additionally, it is important to acknowledge that algorithms and models may evolve over time through the incorporation of additional data and continuous evaluations.