Treatment timing shifts the benefits of short and long antibiotic treatment over infection
Authors: Gjini Erida , Paupério Francisco F S , Ganusov Vitaly V 
Published: August 2020

Antibiotics are the major tool for treating bacterial infections. Rising antibiotic resistance, however, calls for a better use of antibiotics. While classical recommendations favor long and aggressive treatments, more recent clinical trials advocate for moderate regimens. In this debate, two axes of ‘aggression’ have typically been conflated: treatment intensity (dose) and treatment duration. The third dimension of treatment timing along each individual’s infection course has rarely been addressed. By using a generic mathematical model of bacterial infection controlled by immune response, we examine how the relative effectiveness of antibiotic treatment varies with its timing, duration and antibiotic kill rate. We show that short or long treatments may both be beneficial depending on treatment onset, the target criterion for success and on antibiotic efficacy. This results from the dynamic trade-off between immune response build-up and resistance risk in acute, self-limiting infections, and uncertainty relating symptoms to infection variables. We show that in our model early optimal treatments tend to be ‘short and strong’, while late optimal treatments tend to be ‘mild and long’. This suggests a shift in the aggression axis depending on the timing of treatment. We find that any specific optimal treatment schedule may perform more poorly if evaluated by other criteria, or under different host-specific conditions. Our results suggest that major advances in antibiotic stewardship must come from a deeper empirical understanding of bacterial infection processes in individual hosts. To guide rational therapy, mathematical models need to be constrained by data, including a better quantification of personal disease trajectory in humans.

Lay summary: Bacterial infections are becoming more difficult to treat worldwide because bacteria are becoming resistant to the antibiotics used. Addressing this problem requires a better understanding of how treatment along with other host factors impact antibiotic resistance. Until recently, most theoretical research has focused on the importance of antibiotic dosing on antibiotic resistance, however, duration and timing of treatment remain less explored. Here, we use a mathematical model of a generic bacterial infection to study three aspects of treatment: treatment dose/efficacy (defined by the antibiotic kill rate), duration, and timing, and their impact on several infection endpoints. We show that short and long treatment success strongly depends on when treatment begins (defined by the symptom threshold), the target criterion to optimize, and on antibiotic efficacy. We find that if administered early in an infection, “strong and short” therapy performs better, while if treatment begins at higher bacterial densities, a “mild and long” course of antibiotics is favored. In the model host immune defenses are key in preventing relapses, controlling antibiotic resistant bacteria and increasing the effectiveness of moderate intervention. In order to improve rational treatments of human infections, we call for a better quantification of individual disease trajectories in bacteria-immunity space.