Developing a Multivariate System for Predicting and Mitigating the Health Impacts of Heatwaves
Authors: Cataldi Marcio , Galvez Vitor , Gallardo Fernandez Victoria , Montávez Juan Pedro , Jiménez-Guerrero Pedro , Lopez Sanchez Guillermo Felipe , Martínez Urrutia Christian Jair 
Published: March 2024

The main purpose of this study is to develop a heatwave impact-based forecasting system using a new multivariate index, that also encompasses a mitigation action plan with hydration-related measures. Since 1990, heatwaves have become more frequent and intense in various regions worldwide, particularly in Europe and Asia. The principal health effects of heatwaves include organs' strain and damage, complications of cardiovascular and kidney diseases, as well as adverse reproductive effects. These detrimental impacts are widespread and commonly affect individuals aged 65 and above. Many nations have established metrics to assess the prevalence of this occurrence within their borders. These metrics typically use specific threshold values and/or ranges of the near-surface (2 m) air temperature, usually denoted by the extreme values from past records. To the best of our knowledge, only some of these metrics take into account the persistence of the phenomenon and few consider the relative humidity. It is noteworthy that in most of these metrics the temperature thresholds lead to a linear escalation of the conditions posing a risk to the population, which may lead to a misperception of the actual level of risk involved. To thoroughly evaluate the health hazards associated with heatwaves, it is essential to consider the climate variability and change at regional and local scales, as well as the diverse responses of living organisms to extreme (and long-lasting) temperature and humidity conditions. Factors such as individuals' sex, ancestry, age, pre-existing medical conditions, and geographical location should be considered too. The first step of this study consisted of the characterization of the monthly Cumulative Distribution Function of the daily maximum near-surface air temperature (TX) in summer, in recent climate. We used the ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset and performed the analysis for each grid point, considering 1960-1990 as baseline period. &#160;Subsequently, in order to compute the index, the temperature values exceeding the 95th percentile (TX95p) were subjected to a normalized scaling function whose values grow exponentially with the magnitude of the temperature and also depend on the ambient relative humidity. The resulting index values range from 0 to 1, only being greater than zero when the temperature exceeds TX95p. To calibrate the index, we considered the hours of the day during which the index deviates from zero and its correlation with hospitalization and mortality data, mainly related to cardiovascular diseases such as thrombosis. The preliminary work concerned the Region of Murcia, in Spain. The index was validated in the period 2000-2022. Results show the sensitivity of the index, which displays its largest values in the summer of 2022, coinciding with the high number of heat-related deaths observed that year in Spain. Future research will be focused on index calibration and validation in other regions which are also subjected to extreme heat conditions.