SCENARIO FORECAST OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE FISHERY RESOURCES AND FISH CATCHES IN THE AZOV SEA IN THE CONTEXT OF DECLINING FRESHWATER RUNOFF AND INCREASING SALINITY
Authors:   Russian Federal Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (FSBSI “VNIRO”), Mirzoyan A. V. , Belousov V. N. ,   Russian Federal Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (FSBSI “VNIRO”), Azov-Black Sea Branch of the FSBSI “VNIRO” (“AzNIIRKH”), Shlyakhov V. A. ,   Russian Federal Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (FSBSI “VNIRO”), Azov-Black Sea Branch of the FSBSI “VNIRO” (“AzNIIRKH”), Dudkin S. I. ,   Russian Federal Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (FSBSI “VNIRO”), Azov-Black Sea Branch of the FSBSI “VNIRO” (“AzNIIRKH”); Southern Federal University (SFedU), Luzhnyak V. A. ,   Russian Federal Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (FSBSI “VNIRO”), Azov-Black Sea Branch of the FSBSI “VNIRO” (“AzNIIRKH”), Nadolinskiy V. P. ,   Russian Federal Research Institute of Fisheries and Oceanography (FSBSI “VNIRO”), Azov-Black Sea Branch of the FSBSI “VNIRO” (“AzNIIRKH”)
Published: September 2024

Background. The reduction in freshwater runoff and the increase in the Azov Sea salinity are accompanied by a drastic transformation of aquatic biocenoses, as well as restructuring of various ecological groups of the ichthyofauna. Abrupt changes in the composition and abundance of fishing targets render traditional approaches to fishing ineffective and dictate the need to develop new kinds of fishery. Relevance. Identification of possible scenarios of the fishery resource development for the next 5–10 years is necessary to ensure the fisheries sustainability in the Azov Sea Basin. The aim of this work is to analyze the dynamics of the composition of commercial fish catches in the Azov Sea in the modern period of the sea salinization and to develop possible status scenarios for the stocks and catches of fishing targets for the next 3–10 years to substantiate fisheries management and regulation. Methods. In the course of developing such scenarios, the data on the actual dynamics and trends in the fishery resource changes during the comparable periods have been used, as well as the data on the ecological valence of the representatives of various ecological groups of fish at different stages of their ontogenesis in terms of their salinity tolerance. Results. 3 main unequally probable scenarios of changes in the abundance and biomass of various ecological groups of fish — primary industrial-scale fishing targets in the Azov Sea — have been developed; the recommendations for adapting the existing fishing practices to the changes in the fishery resources have been given. Conclusion. A further decrease in the commercial importance is predicted for the freshwater fish species, freshwater-spawning anadromous and semi-anadromous fish species, as well as for gobies and Black and Caspian Sea sprat (tyulka). The role of Black Sea migrants — European anchovy, grey mullets, red mullet, Mediterranean horse mackerel, garfish — will be reduced. Marine fish species — acclimatized so-iuy mullet and Black Sea turbot (kalkan) — will become the main fishing targets.