Моделювання критичних вразливостей у логістиці постачання озброєння та військової техніки в умовах воєнних загроз
Authors: Fedorovych Oleg , Polishchuk Yevhenii , Chmykhun Yevhen , Solovyov Vladyslav 
Published: January 2023

The systemic nature problem related to the simulation of the influence of military threats on the logistics chain of the supply of weapons and military equipment (spare parts for aircrafts, ammunition for rocket systems of volley fire, etc.) is being solved. Military threats can lead to logistical damage (destruction: airfields, bridges, railways, and highways, etc.), which is investigated in this paper. The relevance of the research is related to the systemic nature of the solution to the logistical problem. The occurrence of losses leads to the taking of preventive measures to reduce the level of critical vulnerabilities (for example, runways, ground equipment of airfields, etc.) of the logistical supply chain (for example, aviation) of weapons and military equipment under conditions of martial law. The study aims to create a set of models that will allow making a systematic analysis of the sequence of events associated with the emergence of a military threat in the logistics of the supply of weapons and military equipment: the appearance of a military threat – the emergence of critical vulnerabilities in the logistics chain – the appearance of logistical losses – the formation of preventive actions. The analysis of publications and studies on the logistics of military supplies with the identification of unresolved problems has been carried out. A model to analyze the criticality of vulnerabilities of the logistics supply chain, using the assessments of military experts and the planning of virtual experiments has been created. A model to analyze the causal chain: military threat – critical vulnerability – losses using qualitative assessments of experts in the form of linguistic variable values has been developed. The lexicographic arrangement of possible alternative ways to supply weapons and military equipment to the zone of military conflict is used. This made it possible to select a rational supply option to reduce possible logistical losses. The optimization model to reduce the level of criticality of vulnerabilities in the logistics supply chain to ensure the minimization of losses has been created. In this case, the time, risks and costs of carrying out the preventive actions under conditions of martial law are considered. An agent model to study the dynamic processes of moving forward the military cargo in the logistics supply chain, which helps  simulate the occurrence of a military threat, the activation of critical vulnerabilities, and the appearance of possible logistical losses has been developed. The efficiency of the proposed approach is ensured by a systematic representation of the sequence of events on the emergence of a military threat, the activation of critical vulnerabilities, the appearance of logistical losses, which ensures the adoption of rational preventive actions to prevent the consequences of military threats. The scientific novelty of the study is related to the development of original models, which are based on the systematic presentation of the logistics chain of the supply of weapons and military equipment to the zone of military conflict under conditions of military threat to ensure that efficient preventive actions are done to minimize logistical losses. The results of the study should be used to plan the preventive measures to minimize possible losses and ensure military supplies under conditions of the risk of military threats.