bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
SÁNG TẠO MÔ HÌNH ĐÈN LỒNG TRONG LỄ HỘI ĐƯỜNG PHỐ TRUNG THU TUYÊN QUANG
Authors: Dương Xuân Quyền
Published: April 2024

Những năm trở lại đây với sự phát triển vượt bậc của khoa học kĩ thuật và công nghệ. Làm cho bộ mặt xã hội có nhiều đổi mới, cuộc sống con người trở nên tiện nghi, văn minh. Chính vì lẽ đó, con người đã càng ngày càng quan tâm hơn đến đời sống tinh thần. Con người quay về với những giá trị cốt lõi trong tâm hồn. Trước tiên, khôi phục các lễ hội truyền thống, mỗi nơi, mỗi khu vực đều khôi phục và trở nên thành nét đặc thù riêng cho từng vùng. Ngoài những lễ hội truyền thống thì việc du nhập các lễ hội mới đã và đang được đón nhận nồng nhiệt. Vì thế, mà đời sống tinh thần được nâng cao, con người được vui chơi sau những áp lực công việc của xã hội hiện đại.

          Tuyên Quang có Lễ hội đường phố trung thu là một ví dụ tiêu biểu cho một lễ hội hiện đại (hay lễ hội mới).  Trong đó có sự kết hợp đầy sáng tạo giữa truyền thống và hiện đại. Tuyên Quang là một tỉnh nằm ở khu vực Đông Bắc của Việt Nam. Tuyên Quang là nơi Đảng và Bác Hồ vạch ra con đường đưa nước nhà tiến đến thành công và trở thành thủ đô kháng chiến trong kháng chiến chống Pháp. Không chỉ có thế, Tuyên Quang còn là nơi bảo tồn, lưu giữ nhiều giá trị văn hóa độc đáo như; các lễ hội truyền thống của địa phương. Lễ hội đường phố trung thu ở thành phố Tuyên Quang, tỉnh Tuyên Quang mang trong mình những giá trị văn hóa truyền thống nhưng cũng có nhiều yếu tố hiện đại. Tìm hiểu về lễ hội đường phố trung thu Tuyên Quang sẽ đem đến cho người yêu nghệ thuật thấy được giá trị nghệ thuật tạo hình thể hiện qua các mô hình đèn trong tết trung thu. Do đó, góp phần làm rõ những giá trị về sáng tạo nghệ thuật, những đóng góp từ sáng tạo nghệ thuật sẽ một phần để lễ hội này ngày càng phát triển gắn với  du lịch của tỉnh. Từ đây, góp phần làm cho hình ảnh du lịch Tuyên Quang được quảng bá rộng rãi hơn.
APLICAÇÃO DO QFD COMO UMA FERRAMENTA DA QUALIDADE
Authors: Meireles Paulo Vinicius , Zanetti Elizabeth
Published: April 2024

This article presents the application of QFD as a quality tool in the services provided in an Auto school, aiming to meet the needs of its customers. The QFD (Quality Function Unfolding) method proved effective in quality planning in identifying possible non-conformities in your business processes and solving them using quality tools such as: Pareto Diagram, Checklists, among others. To this end, simplifications were made in the original methodology of the QFD based on the literature researched and on the practical knowledge of the authors. The methodology used for this case study were qualitative research (interviews with the company administrator) and quantitative research (application of customer satisfaction survey questionnaires) in a total sample of 90 students, distributed in: (30) for the researched company and (60) in companies X and Y. After the application of the QFD, it was possible to verify what qualities were demanded, the company's quality characteristics, procedures, and priority resources, as well as proposed quality improvement actions to meet customers' needs. The company, therefore, is interested in providing constant improvement of its service levels to have a competitive differential.
Advanced Hybrid Nanomaterials For Various Application: A Comprehensive Overview
Authors: Singh Nitu , Singh S. P
Published: April 2024

and
Pengaruh Model Pembelajaran Discovery Learning Berbantu Konten Kreatif TikTok Terhadap Kemampuan Penalaran Matematis Siswa
Authors: Wisnujati Novia Putri , Bintoro Henry Suryo , Purwaningrum Jayanti Putri
Published: April 2024

Proses pembelajaran yang masih didominasi oleh guru menyebabkan terjadinya pembelajaran satu arah. Hal ini dibuktikan dengan kenyataan yang ditemukan pada SMA N 1 Sale Rembang, yang mana rata-rata kemampuan penalaran matematis siswa masih rendah serta masih kurang dalam pemanfaatan teknologi. Sehingga, tujuan penelitian ini untuk meningkatkan aktivitas belajar siswa serta kemampuan penalaran matematis siswa dengan model pembelajaran discovery learning yang berbantu konten kreatif TikTok. Penelitian kuantitatif ini memiliki populasi 103 siswa dengan sampel yang digunakan sebanyak 70 siswa. Menggunakan teknik sampling jenuh pada proses pengambilan sampel, serta istrument  test kemampuan penalaran matematis dengan materi statistika yang digunakan untuk teknik pengumpulan data. Analisis penelitian menggunakan uju regresi sederhana berbantuan SPSS diperoleh hasil sig (2- tailed)=0,000 dengan tingkat signifikansi sebesar 5%. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan terdapat pengaruh model pembelajaran discovery learning yang berbantu konten kreatif TikTok terhadap kemampuan penalaran matenatis siswa
Optimizing the Design Structure of Recycled Aluminum Pressing Machine using the Finite Element Method
Authors: Fadlullah Yanuar Agung , Yahya Muhammad Yusri Dzal , Setiawan Rizal Justian , Solekhan Ibnu , Ma'ruf Khakam
Published: April 2024

This research presents the design and analysis of five variations of a hydraulic press machine frame with a length of 720 mm, a width of 1060 mm, and a height of 430 mm. The proposed design optimization is based on the needs of one of the SMEs (Small and Medium Enterprises) that produces non-precision aluminum components in Indonesia, namely CV C-Maxi Alloycast. The design was analyzed using the Finite Element Method (FEA) to determine the stress equivalent, total deformation, and safety factor of the frame after static loading. The design uses ASTM A36 Steel Plate material, equipped with three hydraulics that press the horizontal load in the X and Y axes of 40 tons and the Z direction of 35 tons. The simulation results show that the safest design is to modify the number of frames in the critical parts of the press machine door with a wall thickness of 15 mm and a frame of 20 mm. Meanwhile, the minimum safety factor value is obtained from a design with a minimum number of frames with a wall thickness of 10 mm and a frame thickness of 20 mm. The addition of frames at critical door points has a significant influence on increasing design safety, so researchers recommend using wall and frame thicknesses with values greater than the minimum safe design values. It is hoped that the findings from the simulation results can become a reference in the fabrication of aluminum press machines.
ASPECTOS MODERNOS DA PENSÃO ALIMENTÍCIA
Authors: Batista Elaine Rocha , Lopes José Augusto Bezerra
Published: April 2024

A pensão alimentícia destinada aos filhos vai além da simples garantia de alimentação. Ela abrange também a educação, saúde, lazer, cultura e a dignidade das crianças beneficiadas. É obrigatório que os alimentos sejam fornecidos aos filhos até que atinjam a maioridade, aos 18 anos, e mesmo após essa idade, caso estejam cursando faculdade. A Lei nº 5.478/68 regulamenta a ação de alimentos, proporcionando uma maior agilidade nos processos. Por meio dessa lei, o juiz pode fixar os alimentos provisórios, que devem retroagir à data da citação e serem pagos até a decisão final. Este trabalho tem como objetivo abordar a pensão alimentícia, com foco nas crianças, buscando garantir condições de vida dignas para elas dentro do nosso atual Estado, e também informar a população sobre esse assunto que tem se tornado cada vez mais frequente nas últimas décadas.
ORDOLIBERAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC POLICY AS A MODEL OF REFORMS FOR THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP COUNTRIES
Authors:   Lazarski University, Dahl Martin , Chojan Adrian
Published: April 2024

The Ordoliberal economic policy is a valuable source of inspiration for many countries wanting to reform their political and socio-economic systems. It is also a valuable "object" of research and analysis. Ordoliberalism was initially introduced only in the Western occupation zones, then, after the reunification of Germany in 1990, it was extended to the area of the former German Democratic Republic and, to some extent, constituted a reference point for reforms in the countries of Central Europe. In turn, the Eastern Partnership is an initiative based on close cooperation between the EU and six Eastern European countries that are not members of the EU structures. It was inaugurated ten years ago on the initiative of Poland and Sweden. This publication tries to answer the question to what extent the German experience with ordoliberalism can be useful for countries undergoing the process of systemic transformation, with particular emphasis on the countries of Eastern Partnership countries. The analysis was prepared using the institutional and legal method, while the main source base were available scientific publications and published documents. Keywords: Ordoliberalism, Eastern Partnership, Social Market Economy.
Challenges and prospects of cooperation between the countries of the South Caucasus: the context of the Eastern Partnership Initiative
Authors:   Akaki Tsereteli State University, Gavtadze George , Karchkhadze Salome
Published: April 2024

In today's increasingly intensified international competition and the world full of growing threats, the need to deepen cooperative relations between states is being activated with new force. World history is full of examples of both militaristic and political associations that were formed and changed according to specific historical circumstances. No less important unions, the formation of which has an economic basis. In this case, the main motive of cooperation is to obtain a synergistic effect and strengthen positions on a global scale, to gain an advantage in the competitive struggle, to use existing resources and conditions more fully and effectively, etc. A new understanding of cooperation is the implementation of the political initiative - Eastern Partnership by the European Union, which allows the Eastern neighboring countries of the European Union to start closer cooperation both with the member states and with each other, which can be considered as a new formula for their future success. The Eastern Partnership initiative is a very big contribution from the European Union to the stability and development of the Eastern neighboring countries and, at the same time, it is a very good opportunity to support European security and the achievement of global goals. That is why the right steps taken by both sides lead to the achievement of multifaceted positive results for all parties involved. From the mentioned point of view, it is especially important for the European Union to promote the development of the South Caucasus states when they become supporters of the international order and regulations. We consider this to be one of the important directions in which the cooperation between the EU member states and the countries of the Eastern Partnership (including the South Caucasus) should be developed. Therefore, it is a mutual interest and mutual need, which should be well understood by all EU member states. Keywords: Eastern partisanship; regional commons; Regional cooperation
Air mass transport to the tropical western Pacific troposphere inferred from ozone and relative humidity balloon observations above Palau
Authors: Müller Katrin , von der Gathen Peter , Rex Markus
Published: April 2024

Abstract. The transport history of tropospheric air masses above the tropical western Pacific (TWP) is reflected by the local ozone and relative humidity (RH) characteristics. In boreal winter, the TWP is the main global entry point for air masses into the stratosphere and therefore a key region of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics. Our study aims to identify air masses with different pathways to the TWP using ozone and radio soundings from Palau from 2016–2019. Supported by backward trajectory calculations, we found five different types of air masses. We further defined locally controlled ozone and RH background profiles based on monthly statistics and analyzed corresponding anomalies in the 5–10 km altitude range. Our results show a bimodality in RH anomalies. Humid and ozone-poor background air masses are of local or Pacific convective origin and occur year-round, but they dominate from August until October. Anomalously dry and ozone-rich air masses indicate a non-local origin in tropical Asia and are transported to the TWP via an anticyclonic route, mostly from February to April. The geographic location of origin suggests anthropogenic pollution or biomass burning as a cause for ozone production. We propose large-scale descent within the tropical troposphere and radiative cooling in connection with the Hadley circulation as being responsible for the dehydration during transport. The trajectory analysis revealed no indication of a stratospheric influence. Our study thus presents a valuable contribution to the discussion about anomalous layers of dry ozone-rich air observed in ozone-poor background profiles in the TWP.
Shipping and algae emissions have a major impact on ambient air mixing ratios of non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and methanethiol on Utö Island in the Baltic Sea
Authors: Hellén Heidi , Kouznetsov Rostislav , Kraft Kaisa , Seppälä Jukka , Vestenius Mika , Jalkanen Jukka-Pekka , Laakso Lauri , Hakola Hannele
Published: April 2024

Abstract. The mixing ratios of highly volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were studied on Utö Island in the Baltic Sea. Measurements of non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) and methanethiol (unexpectedly found during the experiment) were conducted using an in situ thermal desorption–gas chromatography–flame ionization detector/mass spectrometer (TD-GC-FID/MS) from March 2018 until March 2019. The mean mixing ratios of NMHCs (alkanes, alkenes, alkynes, and aromatic hydrocarbons) were at the typical levels for rural/remote sites in Europe, and, as expected, the highest mixing ratios were measured in winter, while in the summertime, the mixing ratios remained close to or below detection limits for most of the studied compounds. Sources of NMHCs during wintertime were studied using positive matrix factorization (PMF) together with wind direction analyses and source area estimates. Shipping was found to be a major local anthropogenic source of NMHCs with a 21 % contribution. It especially contributed to ethene, propene, and ethyne mixing ratios. Other identified sources were petrol fuel (15 %), traffic exhaust (14 %), local solvents (6 %), and long-range-transported background (42 %). Contrary to NMHCs, high mixing ratios of methanethiol were detected in summertime (July mean of 1000 pptv). The mixing ratios followed the variations in seawater temperatures and sea level height and were highest during the daytime. Biogenic phytoplankton or macroalgae emissions were expected to be the main source of methanethiol.
Estimating ocean currents from the joint reconstruction of absolute dynamic topography and sea surface temperature through deep learning algorithms
Authors: Ciani Daniele , Fanelli Claudia , Buongiorno Nardelli Bruno
Published: April 2024

Abstract. Our study focuses on the improvement of Absolute Dynamic Topography (ADT) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) mapping from satellite observations. Retrieving consistent high resolution ADT and SST information from space is challenging, due to instrument limitations, sampling constraints and degradations introduced by the interpolation algorithms used to obtain gap free (L4) analyses. To address these issues, we developed and tested different deep learning methodologies, specifically Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) models that were originally proposed for single-image super-resolution. Building upon recent findings, we conduct an Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) relying on Copernicus numerical model outputs and we present a strategy for further refinements. Previous OSSEs combined low resolution L4 satellite equivalent ADTs with high resolution "perfectly known" SSTs to derive high resolution sea surface dynamical features. Here, we introduce realistic SST L4 processing errors and modify the network to concurrently predict high resolution SST and ADT from synthetic, satellite equivalent L4 products. This modification allows us to evaluate the potential enhancement in the ADT and SST mapping while integrating dynamical constraints through tailored, physics informed loss functions. The neural networks are thus trained using OSSE data and subsequently applied to the Copernicus Marine Service satellite derived ADTs and SSTs, with the primary goal of reconstructing super resolved ADTs and geostrophic currents. A 12 years long time series of super resolved geostrophic currents (2008–2019) is thus presented and validated against in situ measured currents from drogued drifting buoys. This study suggests that CNNs are beneficial for improving standard Altimetry mapping: they generally sharpen the ADT gradients with consequent correction of the surface currents direction and intensities with respect to the altimeter derived products. Our investigation is focused on the Mediterranean Sea, a quite challenging region due to its small Rossby deformation radius (around 10 km).
Brief communication: Stalagmite damage by cave-ice flow quantitatively assessed by fluid-structure-interaction simulations
Authors: Jarosch Alexander H. , Hofer Paul , Spötl Christoph
Published: April 2024

Abstract. Mechanical damage to stalagmites is commonly observed in mid-latitude caves. Former studies identified thermoelastic ice expansion as a plausible mechanism for such damage. This study builds on these findings and investigates the role of ice flow along the cave bed as a possible second mechanism for stalagmite damage. Utilizing fluid-structure interaction models based on the finite element method, forces created by ice flow are simulated for different stalagmite geometries. The resulting effects of such forces on the structural integrity of stalagmites are analyzed and presented. Our results suggest that structural failure of stalagmites caused by ice flow is possible, albeit unlikely.
Explicit stochastic advection algorithms for the regional scale particle-resolved atmospheric aerosol model WRF-PartMC (v1.0)
Authors: Curtis Jeffrey Henry , Riemer Nicole , West Matthew
Published: April 2024

Abstract. This paper presents the development of a stochastic particle method to simulate advection in regional-scale models with a particle-resolving aerosol representation. The new method is based on finite volume discretizations with the flux terms interpreted as probabilities of particle transport between grid cells. We analyze the method in 1D and show that the stochastic particle sampling during transport injects energy at high spatial frequencies, which can be partially compensated for with the choice of a dissipative odd-order finite volume scheme. We then apply the stochastic third- and fifth-order advection algorithms with monotonic limiters in WRF-PartMC, using both idealized and realistic wind fields in 2D and 3D. In all cases we observe the expected convergence rates of the stochastic particle method to the finite volume solution as the number of computational particles is increased. This work enables the use of particle-based aerosol models on the regional scale.
Subgrid-scale variability of cloud ice in the ICON-AES 1.3.00
Authors: Doktorowski Sabine , Kretzschmar Jan , Quaas Johannes , Salzmann Marc , Sourdeval Odran
Published: April 2024

Abstract. This paper presents a stochastic approach for the aggregation process rate in the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic general circulation model (ICON-AES), which takes subgrid-scale variability into account. This method creates a stochastic parameterization of the process rate by choosing a new specific cloud ice mass at random from a uniform distribution function. This distribution, which is consistent with the model's cloud cover scheme, is evaluated in terms of cloud ice mass variance with a combined satellite retrieval product (DARDAR) from the satellite cloud radar CloudSat and the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Observations (CALIPSO). The global patterns of simulated and observed cloud ice mixing ratio variance are in a good agreement, despite an underestimation in the tropical regions, especially at lower altitudes, and an overestimation in higher latitudes from the modeled variance. Due to this stochastic approach the yearly mean of cloud ice shows an overall decrease. As a result of the nonlinear nature of the aggregation process, the yearly mean of the process rates increases when taking subgrid-scale variability into account. An increased process rate leads to a stronger transformation of cloud ice into snow and therefore to a cloud ice loss. The yearly averaged global mean aggregation rate is more than 20 % higher at selected pressure levels due to the stochastic approach. A strong interaction of aggregation and accretion, however, lowers the effect of cloud ice loss due to a higher aggregation rate. The new stochastic method presented lowers the bias of the aggregation rate.
Deuteration of proteins boosted by cell lysates: high-resolution amide and Hα magic-angle-spinning (MAS) NMR without the reprotonation bottleneck
Authors: Napoli Federico , Guan Jia-Ying , Arnaud Charles-Adrien , Macek Pavel , Fraga Hugo , Breyton Cécile , Schanda Paul
Published: April 2024

Abstract. Amide-proton-detected magic-angle-spinning NMR of deuterated proteins has become a main technique in NMR-based structural biology. In standard deuteration protocols that rely on D2O-based culture media, non-exchangeable amide sites remain deuterated, making these sites unobservable. Here we demonstrate that proteins produced with a H2O-based culture medium doped with deuterated cell lysate allow scientists to overcome this “reprotonation bottleneck” while retaining a high level of deuteration (ca. 80 %) and narrow linewidths. We quantified coherence lifetimes of several proteins prepared with this labeling pattern over a range of magic-angle-spinning (MAS) frequencies (40–100 kHz). We demonstrate that under commonly used conditions (50–60 kHz MAS), the amide 1H linewidths with our labeling approach are comparable to those of perdeuterated proteins and better than those of protonated samples at 100 kHz. For three proteins in the 33–50 kDa size range, many previously unobserved amides become visible. We report how to prepare the deuterated cell lysate for our approach from fractions of perdeuterated cultures which are usually discarded, and we show that such media can be used identically to commercial media. The residual protonation of Hα sites allows for well-resolved Hα-detected spectra and Hα resonance assignment, exemplified by the de novo assignment of 168 Hα sites in a 39 kDa protein. The approach based on this H2O/cell-lysate deuteration and MAS frequencies compatible with 1.3 or 1.9 mm rotors presents a strong sensitivity benefit over 0.7 mm 100 kHz MAS experiments.
Performance assessment of daily GR conceptual rainfall-runoff models in the Upper Benue River (Cameroon) using airGR packages
Authors: Nonki Rodric Mérimé , Amoussou Ernest , Tshimanga Raphael Muamba , Koubodana Houteta Djan'na , Kodja Domiho Japhet , Kemgang Ghomsi Franck Eitel , Lenouo André
Published: April 2024

Abstract. Many hydrological applications employ conceptual-lumped rainfall-runoff models to support water resource management techniques. Because of their ability to exploit minimal data and provide enough credible information, they provide an edge in data-scarce domains. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the feasibility of using multiple rainfall-runoff hydrologic models Génie Rural à 4, 5, 6 paramètres Journalier (GR4J, GR5J, and GR6J) in the Upper Benue River (UBR) in Northern Cameroon. The models were calibrated using Michel's calibration algorithm implemented in airGR packages, while considering different objective functions (NSE, KGE, composite criterion). The objective here was to find the optimum objective function that takes into account the various components of the hydrographs in this watershed and to assess the impact of the chosen objective function on parameter optimization. The results reveal that the model performance as well as the optimized parameters of the different GR models vary according to the selected objective function. According to the study, adopting the composite criterion as an objective function during model calibration improves model accuracy. The model's performance reveals that two of the three models (GR5J and GR6J) reproduced the discharge well in the considered catchment, with NSE and KGE greater than 0.62 during the model validation. This highlights how these two GR models can be applied to various water management concerns in the UBR.
Runoff uncertainty associated with global climate model chosen in regional climate modeling
Authors: Ajjur Salah Basem , Al-Ghamdi Sami G.
Published: April 2024

Abstract. Uncertain climatic projections result in uncertain runoff predictions, which lead to unreliable water resources management and floods mitigation measures. This study investigates runoff uncertainty associated with Global Climate Models (GCMs) chosen as boundary conditions in regional climate models (RCMs). To this end, the study projected surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and potential evapotranspiration, over Qatar, from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) RCM driven by three GCMs: CCSM4, MPI-ESM, and NorESM. Historical projections were made during 1976–2005 while future projections were made during 2071–2100 under the business-as-usual Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP8.5). The study then inputs climatic parameters in addition to topographic and groundwater data, in a physically based water balance model to compare runoff simulations. During historical and future periods, climatic projections differed among the RCM runs, especially precipitation and potential evapotranspiration. Uncertainty in climatic projections caused significant uncertainty in runoff estimations. Runoff estimations varied from 12.2 to 45 Mm3 yr−1, with an average value of 24.4 Mm3 yr−1 during 1976–2005, and from 12.3 to 52.4 Mm3 yr−1, with an average value of 32.4 Mm3 yr−1 during 2071–2100. All RCM runs agreed on future runoff increases. Since runoff is a main cause of floods and alleviating flood risk can be hindered if climatic projections are incompetent, the study's findings emphasize on narrowing the uncertainty in GCM projections. The study also encourages Qatar authorities to implement managed aquifer recharge projects like rainwater harvesting to alleviate floods risk.
Recharge and dynamics of the Tamanrasset alluvial aquifer (Algerian Sahara)
Authors: Hadj-Said Samia , Zeddouri Aziez , Taupin Jean-Denis , Patris Nicolas , Leduc Christian
Published: April 2024

Abstract. Population growth and agricultural intensification are ever more demanding in water resources, and threaten their quality and quantity, especially in semi-arid and arid areas. The Sahara desert is typical of these multiple constraints and rapid changes making sustainable management of water resources a major issue. The wide regional aquifers have nearly fossil water. In contrast, alluvial aquifers associated with small wadis are recharged nearly each year by the rare floods. In the case of Wadi Tamanrasset, in southern Algeria, the alluvial aquifer is exploited intensively because of its accessibility and its good chemical quality. The physical conditions commanding flow and recharge of groundwater, and especially the transfer from surface to groundwater, were studied by combining hydrodynamics and isotopic tracers (18O, 2H). Monthly monitoring of groundwater level in around thirty wells was complemented by automatic recorders with hourly time steps since March 2016 in three wells, along a 600 m transect perpendicular to the wadi bed. The slow response of the water table is visible only two months after the first flood; its maximum rise was 1 m in 2016. Isotopic analyses of rainwater on a daily time scale, of the wadi water on a 1 h time scale during runoff and of groundwater (two complete campaigns in the dry and wet seasons and a specific monitoring of the transect every month) have provided additional information on surface-groundwater transfer.
On the Growing Socioeconomic Vulnerability of Southern Mediterranean Coastal Lagoons
Authors: Hzami Abderraouf , Amrouni Oula , Heggy Essam , Mahé Gil , Missaoui Hechmi
Published: April 2024

Abstract. Due to pronounced hydroclimatic fluctuations and rapid urban growth, coastal lagoonal systems in the Southern Mediterranean semi-arid areas undergo pronounced shoreline retreats and increased coastal floodings. The socioeconomic impacts of these alarming coastal changes remain poorly uncharacterized. To address this deficiency, we calculate the Socioeconomic Vulnerability Index (SVI) based on the decadal changes in shoreline retreat and land use occupation considering the study case of the coastal lagoon of Ghar El Melh in Tunisia which is representative of several lagoonal systems in the southern Mediterranean basin. We first monitor the diachronic shoreline changes from 1882 to 2016 using aerial and orbital photogrammetric scenes combined with topographic and bathymetric maps. Using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) and historic bathymetric records, we then measure the changes in shoreline position from 1882 to 2016. Secondly, the above is correlated with the Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) assessment using a supervised classification algorithm from multiple Landsat 5-8 orbital photogrammetric scenes. We assess the SVI using five socioeconomic parameters: (1) population density, (2) land use change, (3) road network, and (4) settlements. Our results reveal the occurrence of severe coastal erosion with a maximum Net Shoreline Movement of −1580 m (±6 m) between 1882 and 2016. Moreover, the changes in land use from 1985 to 2021 reveal the extension in urban growth around the lagoon, rising from 5.4 % to 13.5  %. Whereas the vegetation coverage is decreasing by 9 % over the same period. The resulting SVI map reveals that 85 % of the lagoon area is characterized by high to very high vulnerability. This high coastal vulnerability is found to be primarily due to the extensive change in land occupation over the last few decades and is aggravated by the increase in hydroclimatic extremes.
Bayesian inference of synthetic daily rating curves by coupling Chebyshev Polynomials and the GR4J model
Authors: Navas Rafael , Gamazo Pablo , Vervoort R. Willem
Published: April 2024

Abstract. In fluvial dynamics studies, there are instances where it becomes necessary to estimate the daily discharge of a river in locations where only one instantaneous level record is available per day. In such cases, there may be no rating curve, or one that is unreliable, making it difficult to make accurate discharge estimates. A daily rating curve would be an estimate of the daily discharge of a river, from a single instantaneous stage level. This work proposes to estimate synthetic (non-gauged) daily rating curves from nearby gauged locations using a rainfall-runoff model. A rainfall-runoff model (GR4J) is coupled with an instantaneous/stage–daily/discharge relationship based on third order Chebyshev polynomials. The parameters in the joint daily rating curve and rainfall-runoff model are optimized and uncertainty is quantified with Bayesian inference and the Delayed Rejection Adaptive Metropolis algorithm assuming model residuals to be normally distributed N(0,σ). A case study with four gauging sites in New South Wales, Australia, and periods with no changes in the stage-discharge relationship were selected. The method is implemented four times across the gauging sites, where three sites are assumed gauged and one site is assumed to have only instantaneous water level records. The results of this methodology can help provide a more comprehensive understanding of the hydrological functioning of systems, where only one instantaneous stage level per day is available. This is particularly useful in situations where historical observations or satellite altimetry data in rivers is used to estimate daily flows.
Assessing impacts of irrigation on flows frequency downstream of an irrigated agricultural system by the SWAT model
Authors: Saracho Andrés , Navas Rafael , Gamazo Pablo , Alvareda Elena
Published: April 2024

Abstract. There are multiple conflicts between agronomic uses and environmental conservation. Environmental flows must be respected on basins with human interventions. The water regulation of Uruguay establishes a value of environmental flow per month for watercourses. For each month, the value corresponds to a 60 % probability of excess of the daily flows. However, the return flow of irrigation systems is not considered by current national regulations. The objective of this work is to assess the effect of irrigation downstream of reservoirs of agricultural basins. For this purpose, surface and subsurface water flow generation, and interactions between atmosphere, plant, water, and soil are quantified with the SWAT model. The model was implemented for a small basin in the north of Uruguay (Tala catchment, 120 km2). The main crops are rice, soybeans, and corn, which are irrigated by pivots and border irrigation, where water is conducted by long dug channels. The water source is a reservoir with 1200 Hm3 capacity, which is constructed with an earth dam and placed over vertisols soils. Water volumes in the reservoir and flows at the outlet of the catchment were validated with a moving window. Once the model was calibrated, it was used to simulate 30 years of irrigated agriculture and compared with simulations without human intervention. Results show the effect of return flow on the quantity and frequency of water fluxes through the basin. Flow duration curves show that the magnitude of low flows increases downstream on the irrigated system. On the other hand, high flows are attenuated by the storage capacity of the reservoir. The outcomes of this work could support new policies and water regulations, as they show that changes in the frequency of flows are associated with irrigation operations.
Comparison of Actual Evapotranspiration assessment by satellite-based model SEBS and hydrological model BBH in northern Tunisia
Authors: Abid Nesrine , Bargaoui Zoubeida , Ben Jaafar Aymen , Mannaerts Chris M.
Published: April 2024

Abstract. Estimating actual evapotranspiration (AET) in agricultural semi-arid regions is important for crop yield and drought assessment. The Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model, a physically based energy balance model using satellite information is used to estimate AET at the 10 d scale, with a 3 km resolution. The bucket bottom hole (BBH) model, a conceptual daily water balance model is calibrated using the equifinality approach and run for simulating daily AET. Five watersheds located in northern Tunisia with areas varying between 56 and 448 km2 were calibrated using daily rainfall and potential evapotranspiration data as entry and river discharge as output data. Sets of model parameters fulfilling both absolute relative errors of simulated discharge less than 20 % and Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients greater than 0.75 were selected. Three years were selected for the comparison (2010, 2017, and 2018). For every year, six subperiods of 10 d are considered belonging to January, March, April, May, July, and September. Boxplots of AET-BBH estimations are plotted to achieve a comparison with AET-SEBS estimates. It is found that AET comparisons are well favorable for January, March, and April while less satisfactory for May and September. They do not match for July. AET-SEBS are much higher in comparison with AET-BBH estimates with an RMSE and MAE equal respectively to 17 and 19 mm 10 d−1. These results may help stakeholders to assess AET coming from different data sources and models.
Flood Simulation Studies with Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) Model, Over Yangon City, Myanmar
Authors: Phyoe Pyae Pyae , Uchida Tatsuhiko
Published: April 2024

Abstract. Flood risks are increasing due to climate change and human activities in river basins. Flooding is one of the most common disasters in Myanmar, as well as in many other countries. The floods occur during the southwest monsoon season, which is from May to October. Yangon City is at risk of flooding when heavy monsoon rainfall coincides with high tides. In this study, the Yangon area was used as a case study, and the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model was applied. The RRI model is one of the models that has been applied in various river basins to estimate river discharges and flood inundation from rainfall data. The model is a two-dimensional model capable of simulating rainfall-runoff and flood inundation simultaneously. This study aimed to clarify the characteristics of the model's parameters, such as lateral saturated hydraulic conductivity ka and soil depth hd, for a flat river basin in Yangon. Eighty numerical simulations were conducted for four flood events in 2011, 2012, 2013, and 2014, with six soil depths hd and five different ka values in the Bago River. The discharge hydrographs with different ka and soil depths hd values for this river basin were compared. The results show that ka and soil depth hd values significantly differ between Myanmar and other countries due to the geological characteristics and climate zones of the countries.
Assessment of flood damage to agricultural crops under climate change scenarios using MRI-AGCM outputs in the Solo River basin of Indonesia
Authors: Shrestha Badri Bhakta , Rasmy Mohamed , Ushiyama Tomoki , Acierto Ralph Allen , Kawamoto Takatoshi , Fujikane Masakazu , Ito Hiroyuki , Shinya Takafumi
Published: April 2024

Abstract. Understanding the effects of climate change on agricultural crops is an essential part of flood-risk management and adaptation measures. However, the quantitative impact of flood damage on agricultural crops under climate change is still not clearly understood. It is thus crucial to investigate flood damage to agricultural crops under climate change scenarios to understand future crop damage better. In this study, we first explored the relationship between extreme rainfall and damaged paddy area for a historical period, and then focused on the quantitative analysis of flood impact on rice crops under climate change using MRI-AGCM3.2S climate model outputs for the past (1979–2002) and future (2075–2098) climate periods for the Solo River basin in Indonesia. We developed a quantitative damage assessment method by coupling water and energy budget-based rainfall-runoff-inundation model outputs and a flood loss model. Flood damage to rice crops was defined as a function of flood depth and duration, and depth-duration-damage curves were applied to quantify the damage. The results show that flood damage to rice crops will be more severe in the future than in the past, and the findings can be useful in establishing risk reduction and adaptation measures.
Flood resilient landscapes: area-based solutions combine added value for society with flood risk management
Authors: de Leeuw Annemargreet , Tromp Ellen , de Boer Femke
Published: April 2024

Abstract. Society faces challenges such as caring for sustainable agriculture, clean energy and restoring biodiversity, whilst developing housing and industries. Climate change meanwhile stresses the Dutch water management system, impacts flood risk management and fresh water supply. To ensure making the right decisions, which we will not regret in 100 years, we developed the concept of flood resilient landscapes. The concept of flood resilient landscapes confronts, with a perspective of long term development, desired socio-economic developments with carrying capacity and potential of underlying physical landscape conditions. The underlying principle is to create social added value while promoting or at least maintaining flood risk management, given (future) spatial and societal developments. The first results are so promising that the Dutch Flood Protection Programme aims to incorporate it. The flood resilient landscapes concept offers the prospect of keeping the Netherlands safe beyond 2100 at socially acceptable costs and with public support now and in the future and paves the way towards implementation throughout international deltas.
Flood damage model bias caused by aggregation
Authors: Bryant Seth , Kreibich Heidi , Merz Bruno
Published: April 2024

Abstract. Flood risk models provide important information for disaster planning through estimating flood damage to exposed assets, such as houses. At large scales, computational constraints or data coarseness leads to the common practice of aggregating asset data using a single statistic (e.g., the mean) prior to applying non-linear damage functions. While this simplification has been shown to bias model results in other fields, the influence of aggregation on flood risk models has received little attention. This study provides a first order approximation of such errors in 344 damage functions using synthetically generated depths. We show that errors can be as high as 40 % of the total asset value under the most extreme example considered, but this is highly sensitive to the level of aggregation and the variance of the depth values. These findings identify a potentially significant source of error in large-scale flood risk assessments introduced, not by data quality or model transfers, but by modelling approach.
Long-range streamflow prediction using a distributed hydrological model in a snowfed watershed
Authors: Moiz Abdul , Kawasaki Akiyuki
Published: April 2024

Abstract. Inadequate planning of spring snowmelt discharge can lead to wastage of water resources for various purposes such as hydropower and lead to reduced capacity of the dams to control floods during rainy season. In this research we analyze how much can the predictive skill of long-range forecasts be improved by using a distributed hydrological model. We used the Water and Energy Budget-based Distributed Hydrological Model with improved snow physics (WEB-DHM-S) for generating long-range forecasts with a lead time of up to 3 months for the case of Kurobe River Basin in Japan. The predictive skills of two sets of simulations were compared (i) climatology and (ii) ensemble stream flow prediction (ESP). In the case of ESP, the initial conditions of WEB-DHM-S are updated using real-time datasets from Radar-AMeDAS, AMeDAS and JRA55. We found that the model initial conditions are particularly important during the spring snowmelt season and can improve the forecast predictive skills quite significantly compared with the climatology.
Projection of climate change effects on flood inundation in the Gin River basin, Sri Lanka
Authors: Jayapadma Jayapadma Mudalige Miyuru Uthpala , Souma Kazuyoshi , Ishidaira Hiroshi , Magome Jun , Wickramaarachchi Thushara Navodani
Published: April 2024

Abstract. Human-induced climate change has altered the frequency and severity of heavy precipitation, droughts, and floods worldwide. Sri Lanka, a developing country in the Indian Ocean, has suffered frequent floods, affecting over 64 % of the population in the past decade. The Gin River, the primary drinking water source of the densely populated Galle district with over 1 million residents, faces recurrent flood disasters. Therefore, this study employed a multi-model ensemble to simultaneously simulate the impact of climate change on both river flow and inundation extent in the frequently flooded Gin River basin located in humid tropical monsoon region. Bias-corrected climate projections of an ensemble of five General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 emission scenario were used to project future river flow and flood inundation in the Gin River basin, Sri Lanka. The validated Rainfall–Runoff–Inundation (RRI) model projected a 5 % increase in high flows (flows exceeding a 5 % probability of exceedance (<Q5)) at the downstream (Baddegama) gauging station and a 16 % increase at the upstream (Thawalma) gauging station in the future (2040–2060) in comparison to the past (1980–2000), which can be attributed to the elevated rainfall projected during the two monsoon seasons (southwest monsoon (May–September) and northeast monsoon (December–February)) by the GCM ensemble. In addition to the projected changes in high flows revealed by the RRI simulations, the model also yielded critical information about the expansion of annual maximum inundated extent in the basin by 3.5 % that will aid flood risk projection and sustainable management in the basin.
Performance analysis of physically-based (HEC-RAS, CADDIES) and AI-based (LSTM) flood models for two case studies
Authors: Batalini de Macedo Marina , Mangukiya Nikunj K. , Fava Maria Clara , Sharma Ashutosh , Fray da Silva Roberto , Agarwal Ankit , Razzolini Maria Tereza , Mendiondo Eduardo Mario , Goel Narendra K. , Kurian Mathew , Nardocci Adelaide Cássia
Published: April 2024

Abstract. Megacities in developing countries are commonly affected by flooding events. The use of flood models can contribute to an evidence-based decision-making process. For a good representation, these models require physical data for catchment parameterization, and observed data for calibration and validation, which is often scarce. In this study, we analysed the performance results of physically-based (HEC-RAS, CADDIES) and AI-based (LSTM) flood models for two case studies: the Narmada basin in India and the Aricanduva catchment in Brazil. The models were evaluated for accuracy, interpretability, running time, and complexity.
Calculating flood probability in Obihiro using a probabilistic method: incorporating the probability of dike failure with uncertainty
Authors: Uemura Fumihiko , Rongen Guus , Masuya Shigekazu , Yoshida Takatoshi , Yamada Tomohito J.
Published: April 2024

Abstract. In Japan, estimating flood risk follows a deterministic approach. A probabilistic risk method, as adapted in the Netherlands, would be better suited for the quantitative evaluation of flood damage. This study applies such a method in Obihiro, Hokkaido, northern island of Japan. We modelled dike failure with the mechanism overtopping. The probability of dike failure is calculated with a Monte Carlo simulation, considering uncertainties in water levels, critical flow velocity, and dike heights. This results in more accurate failure probabilities compared to the deterministic approach. Additionally, we corrected the dike failure probability for upstream dike failures because these reduce downstream water levels. This conditional flood probability is about 1/10th of the independent situation, indicating a significant effect of considering dike failure in dependence on upstream failures.