Energy Requirements -- A Management And Engineering Responsibilty
Authors: Gilmore Robert B. 
Published: December 2007

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The time soon may be coming, if not here already, when management in the petroleum industry will find it more difficult to take a firm stand in decision-making which will benefit more the national welfare, the consuming public, or the stockholders. In terms of energy requirements and supply — in fact, in consideration of our entire industry — today's problems seem to demand from both engineers and management a new and clearer perspective.

Why are we looking at the responsibility of engineers and management in the petroleum industry in meeting future energy requirements? We know, at least for the rest of this century, the demand for energy will be tremendous. Many estimates of the magnitude have been quoted by Netschert, Putnam, Ayres, Paley, Hubbert and Wiesner, to mention but a few.

Worldwide, during the next 35 to 40 years, we will use 10Q or nearly as much energy as we have used since Christ was born, which is about 13Q. A Q is a billion billion, or 10(18), Btu. In the next 100 years we will use four times as much as we have used in the last 1,963 years. These are reasonable estimates made by reliable people. I have a hunch these estimates might be low, but even if we cut the estimates in half, the requirements are staggering.

WHERE WILL WE GET THE ENERGY?

Taking a long, long view there seems little doubt that reliance will have to be placed on all of the many sources for energy, with petroleum of less and less importance.

Water power, direct conversion of solar energy, geothermal, and tidal power all will contribute some share of future requirements, as will all of the other known but less widely used sources. In localized areas and for comparatively small special purposes, they will be important. Practical and economic production of nuclear energy itself appears to be a bit down the road. Use of this relatively inexhaustible source for power on a large scale at prices competitive with conventional fuels requires much more research and many technological advances before fission or fusion can provide a substantial share of our energy requirements. Hubbert's scholarly report to the National Research Council covers all of these resources well. Our grandchildren and future generations will be much more concerned with them than we are. Today, taking first things first, we are facing our own responsibilities, not those we are leaving for them.