bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Cross Spectral Analysis of CODAR-SeaSonde Echoes from Sea Surface and Ionosphere at Taiwan
Authors: Wang Chien-Ya , Su Ching-Lun , Wu Kang-Hung , Chu Yen-Hsyang
Published: February 2017

It is well known that the primary targets responsible for first-order sea echoes observed by a High-Frequency (HF) radar are the advancing and receding ocean waves with the wavelengths at Bragg scales. However, in light of the fact that the ionospheric sporadic E (Es) and F layers may be present in the viewing range of the HF radar for ocean wave detection, the radar returns reflected from the F and Es layers may significantly contaminate the ocean wave power spectrum. The characteristics of the first-order sea echoes and ionospheric interferences measured by the CODAR-SeaSonde in Taiwan area are analyzed and presented in this article. The coherences and phases of the normalized cross spectra of the sea and ionospheric echoes between different pairs of the receiving channels are calculated, respectively. One of the striking features presented in this report is that the ionospheric echo heights scaled from the ionogram observed by the Chung-Li ionosonde are about 30 km lower than those observed by the DATAN CODAR-SeaSonde. It is also found that the coherences of the sea echoes are generally smaller than those of the ionospheric echoes by about 15% on average, and the phase fluctuations (standard deviations) of the sea echoes are substantially larger than those of the ionospheric layer reflection echoes. In addition, statistics show that the sum of the mean phases of the ionospheric echoes between the three receiving channel pairs is approximately zero, while it is not for the sea echoes. These results seem to suggest that the use of the discrepancies in the characteristics of the coherences and phases between the sea and ionospheric echoes may provide a potential means to be helpful to distinguish the sea and ionospheric echoes in the CODAR-SeaSonde observed cross power spectrum.
Classical and Impulse Stochastic Control on the Optimization of Dividends with Residual Capital at Bankruptcy
Authors: Chen Peimin , Li Bo
Published: February 2017

In this paper, we consider the optimization problem of dividends for the terminal bankruptcy model, in which some money would be returned to shareholders at the state of terminal bankruptcy, while accounting for the tax rate and transaction cost for dividend payout. Maximization of both expected total discounted dividends before bankruptcy and expected discounted returned money at the state of terminal bankruptcy becomes a mixed classical-impulse stochastic control problem. In order to solve this problem, we reduce it to quasi-variational inequalities with a nonzero boundary condition. We explicitly construct and verify solutions of these inequalities and present the value function together with the optimal policy.
Estimation of a Permeability Field within the Two‐Phase Porous Media Flow Using Nonlinear Multigrid Method
Authors: Liu Tao , Song Jie
Published: February 2017

Estimation of spatially varying permeability within the two‐phase porous media flow plays an important role in reservoir simulation. Usually, one needs to estimate a large number of permeability values from a limited number of observations, so the computational cost is very high even for a single field‐model. This paper applies a nonlinear multigrid method to estimate the permeability field within the two‐phase porous media flow. Numerical examples are provided to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed estimation method. In comparison with other existing methods, the most outstanding advantage of this method is the computational efficiency, computational accuracy, and antinoise ability. The proposed method has a potential applicability to a variety of parameter estimation problems.
Associations of Diabetes and Obesity with Risk of Abdominal Aortic Aneurysm in Men
Authors: Wang Lu , Djousse Luc , Song Yiqing , Akinkuolie Akintunde O. , Matsumoto Chisa , Manson JoAnn E. , Gaziano J. Michael , Sesso Howard D.
Published: February 2017

Background.The associations of diabetes and obesity with the risk of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) are inconclusive in previous studies.Subjects/Methods.We conducted prospective analysis in the Physicians’ Health Study. Among 25,554 male physicians aged ≥ 50 years who reported no AAA at baseline, 471 reported a newly diagnosed AAA during a mean of 10.4 years’ follow-up.Results.Compared with men who had baseline body mass index (BMI) < 25 kg/m2, the multivariable hazard ratio (HR [95% CI]) of newly diagnosed AAA was 1.30 [1.06–1.59] for BMI 25–<30 kg/m2and 1.69 [1.24–2.30] for BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2. The risk of diagnosed AAA was significantly higher by 6% with each unit increase in baseline BMI. This association was consistent regardless of the other known AAA risk factors and preexisting vascular diseases. Overall, baseline history of diabetes tended to be associated with a lower risk of diagnosed AAA (HR = 0.79 [0.57–1.11]); this association appeared to vary by follow-up time (HR = 1.56 and 0.63 during ≤ and >2 years’ follow-up, resp.).Conclusion.In a large cohort of middle-aged and older men, obesity was associated with a higher risk, while history of diabetes tended to associate with a lower risk of diagnosed AAA, particularly over longer follow-up.
Characterization of PCL and Chitosan Nanoparticles as Carriers of Enoxaparin and Its Antithrombotic Effect in Animal Models of Venous Thrombosis
Authors: Prado Lucas Bessa , Huber Stephany Cares , Barnabé Aline , Bassora Fernanda Dutra Santiago , Paixão Devanira Souza , Duran Nelson , Annichino-Bizzacchi Joyce Maria
Published: February 2017

This study was based on the preparation, characterization, and animal in vivo experiments performed to evaluate nanoparticles of poly(ɛ-caprolactone) (PCL) and chitosan as carriers of enoxaparin. The nanoparticles were characterized and presented satisfactory results in terms of size, polydispersity, and encapsulation efficiency. Anticoagulant activity of the nanoparticles was maintained for 14 hours when the administration was subcutaneous; however no activity was observed after oral administration. There was a significant reduction in thrombus size, in vivo, for both free and encapsulated enoxaparin in comparison with the control group after subcutaneous administration. Oral administration results however were indifferent. In conclusion, the double emulsion method w/o/w was efficient for enoxaparin encapsulation, producing spherical nanoparticles with high encapsulation efficiency. For in vivo studies, the encapsulated enoxaparin showed a sustained anticoagulant activity for a higher period of time compared to free enoxaparin, with an antithrombotic effect when administered subcutaneously.
Micromorphological Studies of the Loranthaceae,Phragmanthera capitata(Sprengel) Balle
Authors: Ohikhena Franklin Uangbaoje , Wintola Olubunmi Abosede , Afolayan Anthony Jide
Published: February 2017

Phragmanthera capitata(Sprengel) Balle is a mistletoe of the Loranthaceae family that has been explored for its therapeutic properties in folklore for ages. However, there had been an alarming increase in misidentification of species in this family. This may be due in part to the lack of species taxonomic information. Hence, this study wishes to highlight the range of micromorphological features which could complement the information database of this species. Scanning electron, light, and energy dispersive X-ray (EDX) microscopies were used for this study. The result revealed a paracytic type of stomata with mean abaxial and adaxial density of225.42±3.67 mm2and137.21±5.65 mm2, respectively, and mean guard cell length of26.45±0.02 μm. Oval-shaped lenticels with a mean length of34.29±0.26 μm were observed. They were arranged in parallel on the epidermal cells of the abaxial midrib. Densely packed stellate trichomes were revealed on the abaxial epidermis with a density of63.32±3.70 mm2. Tracheary elements, which are tightly packed with granules believed to be proteins, were observed in the cross sections of the twig. Deposits chiefly composed of silicon, aluminium, potassium, and iron were recorded in the EDX analysis. This study revealed detailed descriptive micromorphological structures which could serve as a source of information and reference for the taxonomic description ofP. capitata.
A Method of Energy‐Optimal Trajectory Planning for Palletizing Robot
Authors: Liu Yanjie , Liang Le , Han Haijun , Zhang Shijie
Published: February 2017

In this work, the energy‐optimal trajectory planning and initial pick point searching problem for palletizing robot with high load capacity and high speed are studied, in which the pick point and place point of the robot are fixed to a desired location for each single task. These optimization problems have been transformed to ternary functional extremum problem and parameters optimal selection problem in which the performance index of the problems the rigid‐flexible coupling dynamics model of the robot, and the constraint and boundary conditions of the robot are given. The fourth‐order Runge‐Kutta method, multiple shooting method, and traversing method are used to solve these specific mathematical problems. The effectiveness of the trajectory planning method is validated by the experimental and simulating results; thus the research work done here provides important support for subsequent palletizing robot research.
Efficient and Effective Learning of HMMs Based on Identification of Hidden States
Authors: Liu Tingting , Lemeire Jan
Published: February 2017

The predominant learning algorithm for Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) is local search heuristics, of which the Baum‐Welch (BW) algorithm is mostly used. It is an iterative learning procedure starting with a predefined size of state spaces and randomly chosen initial parameters. However, wrongly chosen initial parameters may cause the risk of falling into a local optimum and a low convergence speed. To overcome these drawbacks, we propose to use a more suitable model initialization approach, a Segmentation‐Clustering and Transient analysis (SCT) framework, to estimate the number of states and model parameters directly from the input data. Based on an analysis of the information flow through HMMs, we demystify the structure of models and show that high‐impact states are directly identifiable from the properties of observation sequences. States having a high impact on the log‐likelihood make HMMs highly specific. Experimental results show that even though the identification accuracy drops to 87.9% when random models are considered, the SCT method is around 50 to 260 times faster than the BW algorithm with 100% correct identification for highly specific models whose specificity is greater than 0.06.
Preparation and Characterisation of Highly Stable Iron Oxide Nanoparticles for Magnetic Resonance Imaging
Authors: Kovář David , Malá Aneta , Mlčochová Jitka , Kalina Michal , Fohlerová Zdenka , Hlaváček Antonín , Farka Zdeněk , Skládal Petr , Starčuk Zenon , Jiřík Radovan , Slabý Ondřej , Hubálek Jaromír
Published: February 2017

Magnetic nanoparticles produced using aqueous coprecipitation usually exhibit wide particle size distribution. Synthesis of small and uniform magnetic nanoparticles has been the subject of extensive research over recent years. Sufficiently small superparamagnetic iron oxide nanoparticles easily permeate tissues and may enhance the contrast in magnetic resonance imaging. Furthermore, their unique small size also allows them to migrate into cells and other body compartments. To better control their synthesis, a chemical coprecipitation protocol was carefully optimised regarding the influence of the injection rate of base and incubation times. The citrate-stabilised particles were produced with a narrow average size range below 2 nm and excellent stability. The stability of nanoparticles was monitored by long-term measurement of zeta potentials and relaxivity. Biocompatibility was tested on the Caki-2 cells with good tolerance. The application of nanoparticles for magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) was then evaluated. The relaxivities (r1,r2) and r2/r1 ratio calculated from MR images of prepared phantoms indicate the nanoparticles as a promising T2-contrast probe.
Perinatal Mortality Associated with Positive Postmortem Cultures for Common Oral Flora
Authors: He Mai , Migliori Alison R. , Lauro Patricia , Sung C. James , Pinar Halit
Published: February 2017

Introduction. To investigate whether maternal oral flora might be involved in intrauterine infection and subsequent stillbirth or neonatal death and could therefore be detected in fetal and neonatal postmortem bacterial cultures.Methods. This retrospective study of postmortem examinations from 1/1/2000 to 12/31/2010 was searched for bacterial cultures positive for common oral flora from heart blood or lung tissue. Maternal age, gestational age, age at neonatal death, and placental and fetal/neonatal histopathological findings were collected.Results. During the study period 1197 postmortem examinations (861 stillbirths and 336 neonatal deaths) were performed in our hospital with gestational ages ranging from 13 to 40+ weeks. Cultures positive for oral flora were identified in 24 autopsies including 20 pure and 8 mixed growths (26/227, 11.5%), found in 16 stillbirths and 8 neonates. Microscopic examinations of these 16 stillbirths revealed 8 with features of infection and inflammation in fetus and placenta. The 7 neonatal deaths within 72 hours after birth grew 6 pure isolates and 1 mixed, and 6 correlated with fetal and placental inflammation.Conclusions. Pure isolates of oral flora with histological evidence of inflammation/infection in the placenta and fetus or infant suggest a strong association between maternal periodontal conditions and perinatal death.
Characteristics of Sarcoidosis in Patients with Previous Malignancy: Causality or Coincidence?
Authors: Arish Nissim , Kuint Rottem , Sapir Eli , Levy Liran , Abutbul Avraham , Fridlender Zvi , Laxer Uri , Berkman Neville
Published: February 2017

Background: The association between sarcoidosis and malignancy is poorly defined. Sarcoidosis can precede, be diagnosed concurrently with, or follow malignancy. Objectives: We describe the clinical and radiological features of patients with sarcoidosis following malignancy to determine whether this association is causal or coincidental. Methods: We performed a search for all patients with confirmed sarcoidosis following malignancy in our institution during 2001-2015. Clinical and radiological features, bronchoscopic findings, bronchoalveolar lavage cell counts, and pulmonary function tests (PFTs) were reviewed to evaluate patterns of disease involvement. Details of the histological type of cancer, staging, treatment, and follow-up were reviewed. Results: Twenty-nine patients were identified. The most prevalent malignancies were breast cancer and lymphoma (24% each). Based on the incidence of these malignancies, we estimated the incidence of sarcoidosis was 175 times higher after lymphoma and 38 times higher after breast cancer as compared to the general population. Most patients had early stage cancer (stage I, II) (75%), and only 2 patients (7%) had recurrence of their malignancy after diagnosis of sarcoidosis. Sarcoidosis was diagnosed within 5 years of malignancy in over half the patients, 76% were asymptomatic and 69% had normal PFTs. Mediastinal lymphadenopathy was present in 81% of cases, hilar lymphadenopathy in 67%, and pulmonary parenchymal involvement in 41%. Fifty percent of patients had received Adriamycin, 38% cyclophosphamide, and 33% vincristine. Conclusions: Sarcoidosis following malignancy is indistinguishable from “idiopathic” sarcoidosis, although it is frequently asymptomatic. The high frequency of sarcoidosis after specific cancers but not others, suggests a causative association between malignancy and development of sarcoidosis.
Young Women With Acute Myocardial Infarction
Authors: Dreyer Rachel P. , Sciria Christopher , Spatz Erica S. , Safdar Basmah , D’Onofrio Gail , Krumholz Harlan M.
Published: February 2017

In recent years, there has been growing public awareness and increasing attention to young women with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), who represent an extreme phenotype. Young women presenting with AMI may develop coronary disease by different mechanisms and often have worse recoveries, with higher risk for morbidity and mortality compared with similarly aged men. The purpose of this cardiovascular perspective piece is to review recent studies of AMI in young women. More specifically, we emphasize differences in the epidemiology, diagnosis, and management of AMI in young women (when compared with men) across the continuum of care, including their pre-AMI, in-hospital, and post-AMI periods, and highlight gaps in knowledge and outcomes that can inform the next generation of research.
Preeclampsia and Future Cardiovascular Health
Authors: Wu Pensée , Haththotuwa Randula , Kwok Chun Shing , Babu Aswin , Kotronias Rafail A. , Rushton Claire , Zaman Azfar , Fryer Anthony A. , Kadam Umesh , Chew-Graham Carolyn A. , Mamas Mamas A.
Published: February 2017

Background—

Preeclampsia is a pregnancy-specific disorder resulting in hypertension and multiorgan dysfunction. There is growing evidence that these effects persist after pregnancy. We aimed to systematically evaluate and quantify the evidence on the relationship between preeclampsia and the future risk of cardiovascular diseases.

Methods and Results—

We studied the future risk of heart failure, coronary heart disease, composite cardiovascular disease, death because of coronary heart or cardiovascular disease, stroke, and stroke death after preeclampsia. A systematic search of MEDLINE and EMBASE was performed to identify relevant studies. We used random-effects meta-analysis to determine the risk. Twenty-two studies were identified with >6.4 million women including >258 000 women with preeclampsia. Meta-analysis of studies that adjusted for potential confounders demonstrated that preeclampsia was independently associated with an increased risk of future heart failure (risk ratio [RR], 4.19; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.09–8.38), coronary heart disease (RR, 2.50; 95% CI, 1.43–4.37), cardiovascular disease death (RR, 2.21; 95% CI, 1.83–2.66), and stroke (RR, 1.81; 95% CI, 1.29–2.55). Sensitivity analyses showed that preeclampsia continued to be associated with an increased risk of future coronary heart disease, heart failure, and stroke after adjusting for age (RR, 3.89; 95% CI, 1.83–8.26), body mass index (RR, 3.16; 95% CI, 1.41–7.07), and diabetes mellitus (RR, 4.19; 95% CI, 2.09–8.38).

Conclusions—

Preeclampsia is associated with a 4-fold increase in future incident heart failure and a 2-fold increased risk in coronary heart disease, stroke, and death because of coronary heart or cardiovascular disease. Our study highlights the importance of lifelong monitoring of cardiovascular risk factors in women with a history of preeclampsia.
Hidden Truth in the Body of Euclia: Page duBois’ Torture and Truth and Acts of Andrew
Authors: Cobb Christy
Published: February 2017

This essay explores the representation of Euclia, a female slave whose story is found within the narrative of Acts of Andrew. I read this early Christian text alongside Page duBois’ Torture and Truth and Slaves and Other Objects and, through a focus on Euclia’s story, analyze the relationship among slavery, gender, torture, and truth as represented in this text. In order to explore these issues, I compare the representations of the bodies of Euclia, the slave, with Maximilla, the free elite woman. In doing so I argue that Maximilla’s body is undeniably “untouchable” while Euclia’s body is vulnerable to sexual abuse and torture. Additionally, I track the “truth” within the narrative as presented by various characters in the text; I argue that both the gender and status of the character shape the view of “truth” found in each characterization. Through this reading I suggest that truth is hidden within the female body of the slave, Euclia. This application of duBois’ scholarship to an early Christian narrative illuminates the intricate relationship between slavery and gender as well as torture and truth.
“Exegetical Torture” in Early Christian Biblical Interpretation: The Case of Origen of Alexandria
Authors: Harrill J. Albert
Published: February 2017

This essay engages Page duBois’s work on torture and truth to contextualize a curious logic in Origen of Alexandria’s exegetical method. That logic insisted on “torturing” (Greek, basanos) the text in the style of a forensic investigation. From Thucydides to Galen and Origen, this vocabulary of exegetical torture figured texts as uncooperative witnesses in a situation familiar to ancient readers from the courtroom and in their own households. This agonistic paradigm of torture and truth offers the best interpretative context in which to read Origen’s call for the basanos – a metaphor very much alive in his work and world. The study concludes by connecting exegesis and martyrology as discourses in early Christian literary culture, which share the same fundamentally agonistic rhetoric of cross-examination.
Jeremiah and the Assyrian Sacred Tree
Authors: Eichler Raanan
Published: February 2017

Jeremiah 10:5 contains the collocation tomær miqšāh, which has been interpreted in a variety of ways ranging from “scarecrow in a cucumber field” to “plated pillars”. It is argued that the collocation should rather be interpreted as “palm sculpture” and that it refers to a known type of object from the ancient Near East whose depictions are designated by scholars as the “Assyrian sacred tree”.
Lee Teng Hwee, Ho Pao Jin, and Educational Reform in Malacca, Singapore, Shanghai and Beyond, 1885–1945 (李登輝、何葆仁和麻六甲、新加坡、上海各處的教育改革及其它,一八八五-一九四五)
Authors: Dennerline (鄧爾麟) Jerry
Published: February 2017

This essay focuses on Lee Teng Hwee and Ho Pao Jin, two “trans-local” activist educational reformers, in order to explore the interaction between changing social networks, governments, and educational reform movements in Shanghai, Singapore, and Malacca at critical moments between the 1880s and 1930s. Lee, as Fudan University President, and Ho, as Shanghai Student Union President, were key actors in the 1919 protest movement. Both were sons of families engaged in trans-regional trade, Lee moving from Batavia to Singapore, America, and Shanghai and Ho moving from Xiamen to Singapore, Shanghai, America, and Malacca. My purpose is to show how the shifting socio-economic networks and political structures and the activities of these educational reformers influenced each other, drawing on and contributing to local and trans-local experience. As these contributors were flexible in adapting to circumstances as they pursued their goals, we should also be flexible in our analysis of them.

本文聚焦在李登輝、何葆仁這兩位「跨越地域」（trans-local）的行動派教育改革者，從而探討在一八八零年代到一九三零年代的關鍵時刻，發生在麻六甲、新加坡和上海各地社會網絡、政府和教育改革運動之間的交流。兩位在一九一九年抗議運動時皆是活躍份子：李氏當時是復旦大學的校長，而何氏則是上海學生會的主席。兩人亦皆出身於從事跨區域貿易的商人家庭：李氏自巴達維亞移居到新加坡、美國和上海；而何氏則自廈門移往新加坡、美國和麻六甲。我的目的是要突顯出變動的社會經濟網絡、政治結構和這些教育改革者的活動之間彼此的影響，特別是一地的經驗如何在另一地被承續。由於這些貢獻者是探取相當彈性的方式在追求其目標，會因不同的情境而做出調整，我們對他們的活動之分析也應是彈性的。 (This article is in English).
Botryosphaeriaceae associated with Tectona grandis (teak) in Northern Thailand
Authors: DOILOM MINGKWAN , SHUTTLEWORTH LUCAS A. , ROUX JOLANDA , CHUKEATIROTE EKACHAI , HYDE KEVIN D.
Published: February 2017

Tectona grandis (teak) is one of the most important economic timbers worldwide. Limited studies exist on the potential pathogens of these trees. Fungi in the Botryosphaeriaceae are cosmopolitan opportunistic pathogens, endophytes and saprobes of numerous hosts. Both symptomatic and asymptomatic branch and stem sections, as well as leaves were collected from T. grandis in plantations and forests in four provinces of northern Thailand with the aim of identifying species of Botryosphaeriaceae associated with these trees. Morphology and multi-locus phylogenies (ITS, TEF1-α, β-tubulin) were used to identify the Botryosphaeriaceae species. Six species from four different genera were found on T. grandis in Northern Thailand. These included Dothiorella tectonae sp. nov., Lasiodiplodia brasiliense, L. pseudotheobromae, L. theobromae, Pseudofusicoccum adansoniae and Sphaeropsis eucalypticola. Dothiorella tectonae is introduced here as a novel species and compared with other species in the genus. Dothiorella tectonae, L. brasiliense, L. pseudotheobromae, L. theobromae, P. adansoniae and S. eucalypticola are first reports for T. grandis in Thailand. Variations in morphology between descriptions of previously described species and that obtained in this study are described to facilitate future identification of species.
Description of a new species of Neoromicia (Chiroptera: Vespertilionidae) from southern Africa: A name for “N. cf. melckorum”
Authors: GOODMAN STEVEN M. , KEARNEY TERESA , RATSIMBAZAFY MALALATIANA MICHÈLE , HASSANIN ALEXANDRE
Published: February 2017

The taxonomy of sub-Saharan small insectivore bats of the family Vespertilionidae is unresolved and currently five named species of the genus Neoromicia are recognized from southern Africa, with N. melckorum considered a synonym of N. capensis. Since several years, the name “N. cf. melckorum” has been used in the literature to designate an apparently undescribed and moderately large bodied vespertilionid bat known from different localities in southern and southeastern Africa. Using new data from molecular genetics, bacular morphology, and cranio-dental characters, we conclude that N. melckorum sensu stricto is indeed nested within N. capensis and obtain the needed evidence to formally describe “N. cf. melckorum”, named herein as N. stanleyi sp. nov. On the basis of molecular and bacular evidence, N. stanleyi is found in Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Zambia, and using a combination of other characters is presumed to occur in northern South Africa and Malawi. Bayesian and maximum likelihood analyses based on 12S rRNA sequences indicate that it belongs to a clade containing four species of Neoromicia (N. capensis, N. malagasyensis, N. matroka, and N. robertsi) and Laephotis. Neoromicia stanleyi shows at least 3.2% nucleotide divergence from its closest relatives. It is larger in cranial characters than other members of the capensis group occurring in the southern portion of Africa, and a number of bacular characters distinguish N. stanleyi from N. capensis.
Seasonal Climate Prediction: A New Source of Information for the Management of Wind Energy Resources
Authors: Torralba Verónica , Doblas-Reyes Francisco J. , MacLeod Dave , Christel Isadora , Davis Melanie
Published: February 2017

Climate predictions tailored to the wind energy sector represent an innovation in the use of climate information to better manage the future variability of wind energy resources. Wind energy users have traditionally employed a simple approach that is based on an estimate of retrospective climatological information. Instead, climate predictions can better support the balance between energy demand and supply, as well as decisions relative to the scheduling of maintenance work. One limitation for the use of the climate predictions is the bias, which has until now prevented their incorporation in wind energy models because they require variables with statistical properties that are similar to those observed. To overcome this problem, two techniques of probabilistic climate forecast bias adjustment are considered here: a simple bias correction and a calibration method. Both approaches assume that the seasonal distributions are Gaussian. These methods are linear and robust and neither requires parameter estimation—essential features for the small sample sizes of current climate forecast systems. This paper is the first to explore the impact of the necessary bias adjustment on the forecast quality of an operational seasonal forecast system, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts seasonal predictions of near-surface wind speed to produce useful information for wind energy users. The results reveal to what extent the bias adjustment techniques, in particular the calibration method, are indispensable to produce statistically consistent and reliable predictions. The forecast-quality assessment shows that calibration is a fundamental requirement for high-quality climate service.
The Microphysical Building Blocks of Low-Level Potential Vorticity Anomalies in an Idealized Extratropical Cyclone
Authors: Crezee Bas , Joos Hanna , Wernli Heini
Published: February 2017

Diabatically generated low-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies in extratropical cyclones enhance near-surface winds and influence the cyclone’s development. Positive and negative PV anomalies in the warm-frontal region of an extratropical cyclone, simulated with an idealized moist baroclinic channel model, are investigated to identify the microphysical processes that produce them. Using a novel method based on backward trajectories from the PV anomalies, the contribution of different microphysical processes to the formation of the anomalies is quantified. It is found that, for each anomaly, typically one specific microphysical process takes the leading role in its diabatic generation. A large but rather weak low- and midlevel positive anomaly is produced by depositional growth of ice and snow. Two smaller but stronger positive anomalies at lower levels are generated mainly by in-cloud condensational heating at the warm front and below-cloud rain evaporation and snow melting 200 km farther north. In addition, near-surface negative anomalies are produced by snow melting and snow sublimation. In summary, this idealized study reveals that (i) a variety of microphysical processes are involved in generating the complex mesoscale PV structures along the warm front; (ii) the model representation of these processes, some of them still insufficiently understood and parameterized, therefore matters for an accurate prediction of these features; (iii) below-cloud processes are also relevant for PV anomalies located in clouds, owing to accumulation of diabatic PV tendencies along ascending air parcels; and (iv) the diabatic history of the air parcels is essential in order to explain the observed PV pattern.
On the Response of the Aleutian Low to Greenhouse Warming
Authors: Gan Bolan , Wu Lixin , Jia Fan , Li Shujun , Cai Wenju , Nakamura Hisashi , Alexander Michael A. , Miller Arthur J.
Published: February 2017

Past and future changes in the Aleutian low are investigated by using observation-based sea level pressure (SLP) datasets and CMIP5 models. It is found that the Aleutian low intensity, measured by the North Pacific Index (NPI), has significantly strengthened during the twentieth century, with the observed centennial trend double the modeled counterpart for the multimodel average of historical simulations, suggesting compound signals of anthropogenic warming and natural variability. As climate warms under the strongest future warming scenario, the climatological-mean Aleutian low will continue to intensify and expand northward, as manifested in the significant decrease (−1.3 hPa) of the multimodel-averaged NPI, which is 1.6 times its unforced internal variability, and the increase in the central area of low pressure (SLP < 999.0 hPa), which expands about 7 times that in the twentieth century. A suite of idealized experiments further demonstrates that the deepening of the Aleutian low can be driven by an El Niño–like warming of the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST), with a reduction in the climatological-mean zonal SST gradient, which overshadows the dampening effect of a weakened wintertime land–ocean thermal contrast on the Aleutian low change in a warmer climate. While the projected deepening of Aleutian low on multimodel average is robust, individual model portrayals vary primarily in magnitude. Intermodel difference in surface warming amplitude over the Asian continent, which is found to explain about 31% of the variance of the NPI changes across models, has a greater contribution than that in the spatial pattern of tropical Pacific SST warming (which explains about 23%) to model uncertainty in the projection of Aleutian low intensity.
La Niña–like Mean-State Response to Global Warming and Potential Oceanic Roles
Authors: Kohyama Tsubasa , Hartmann Dennis L. , Battisti David S.
Published: February 2017

The majority of the models that participated in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global warming experiments warm faster in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean than in the west. GFDL-ESM2M is an exception among the state-of-the-art global climate models in that the equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) in the west warms faster than in the east, and the Walker circulation strengthens in response to warming. This study shows that this “La Niña–like” trend simulated by GFDL-ESM2M could be a physically consistent response to warming, and that the forced response could have been detectable since the late twentieth century. Two additional models are examined: GFDL-ESM2G, which differs from GFDL-ESM2M only in the oceanic components, warms without a clear zonal SST gradient; and HadGEM2-CC exhibits a warming pattern that resembles the multimodel mean. A fundamental observed constraint between the amplitude of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the mean-state zonal SST gradient is reproduced well by GFDL-ESM2M but not by the other two models, which display substantially weaker ENSO nonlinearity than is observed. Under this constraint, the weakening nonlinear ENSO amplitude in GFDL-ESM2M rectifies the mean state to be La Niña–like. GFDL-ESM2M exhibits more realistic equatorial thermal stratification than GFDL-ESM2G, which appears to be the most important difference for the ENSO nonlinearity. On longer time scales, the weaker polar amplification in GFDL-ESM2M may also explain the origin of the colder equatorial upwelling water, which could in turn weaken the ENSO amplitude.
Building a European Legitimacy Index
Authors: Blanco-González Alicia , Prado-Román Camilo , Díez-Martín Francisco
Published: February 2017

This article outlines an approach to building a country-level legitimacy index designed specifically for European Union member states. The index allows intercountry as well as longitudinal comparisons. Changes over time reflect varying levels of confidence in the political system and may serve as leading indicators for differences in the economic, social, and political stability of member states. Source data for the index are derived from the European Social Survey, taken between 2002 and 2012 in 35 countries. The index is built around three dimensions (legality, justification, and consent). Results from the index vary among member states but, overall, show a tendency toward diminishing legitimacy. Citizens trust their police forces and laws, but are dissatisfied with institutions and the economy. Moreover, they feel increasing distance from their leaders, their representative bodies, and the effectiveness of political institutions. These trends highlight the need for public–private efforts to increase the legitimacy of European Union member states.
It’s the Conventional Thought That Counts
Authors: Correll Shelley J. , Ridgeway Cecilia L. , Zuckerman Ezra W. , Jank Sharon , Jordan-Bloch Sara , Nakagawa Sandra
Published: February 2017

A core claim of sociological theory is that modern institutions fall short of their meritocratic ideals, whereby rewards should be allocated based on achievement-related criteria. Instead, high-status actors often experience a “status advantage”: they are rewarded disproportionately to the quality of their performance. We develop and test a theory of status advantage in meritocratic settings. The most influential model in past research derives status advantage from decision-makers’ tendency to infer quality from status when quality is uncertain. The theory developed here integrates and extends this and other theories to explain the emergence of status advantage in the many meritocratic contexts where the decision-maker’s personal, first-order sense of quality is less important to the decision. We argue that in such contexts, decision-makers must often coordinate with others to make the “best” decision, and thus they focus on the “third-order inference” problem of discerning who or what “most people” think is higher quality, as encoded in status beliefs. Three experiments demonstrate that under such conditions, status advantages can emerge even though (1) status information does not resolve uncertainty about quality; (2) the status belief is illegitimate; and (3) no party to the decision personally prefers the higher-status option. The theory implies that status hierarchies are resilient in the face of significant dissent but may be subject to public challenge.
Analyzing Variation in Prior Record Penalties Across Conviction Offenses
Authors: Cassidy Michael , Rydberg Jason
Published: February 2017

The focal concerns perspective suggests that criminal history and the nature of the offense interact to influence judicial assessments of community threat, yet this question has not been subject to systematic empirical examination. Drawing on 4 years of data (2007-2010) from the Pennsylvania Commission on Sentencing ( N = 75,676), we utilize linear quantile mixed models (LQMM) to examine the impact of prior record on the conditional distribution of sentence lengths across violent, property, drug, and sex offenders, controlling for the effects of important individual and judicial district-level covariates. The results indicate that prior record penalties differ both between and within conviction offense types across the conditional sentence length distribution. Substantive, theoretical, and methodological implications are discussed.
Using the Stan Program for Bayesian Item Response Theory
Authors: Luo Yong , Jiao Hong
Published: February 2017

Stan is a new Bayesian statistical software program that implements the powerful and efficient Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm. To date there is not a source that systematically provides Stan code for various item response theory (IRT) models. This article provides Stan code for three representative IRT models, including the three-parameter logistic IRT model, the graded response model, and the nominal response model. We demonstrate how IRT model comparison can be conducted with Stan and how the provided Stan code for simple IRT models can be easily extended to their multidimensional and multilevel cases.
Campaigning for a community: Urdu literature of mobilisation and identity
Authors: Oesterheld Christina
Published: February 2017

After the defeat of the rebellion of 1857–58, and the final loss of the last semblance of political power in the subcontinent, Muslims attempted to analyse the reason for their ‘descent, decay or degradation’ ( tanazzul). Inspired by Sir Saiyid Ahmad Khan’s reformist movement, Urdu prose writers and poets started to create a new kind of literature with the aim to ‘awaken’, revitalise and mobilise the Muslim community. As a means to this end, they evoked images of the glorious Islamic past, but also warned about the negative impact of the schisms within Islam. As perfect examples for the new role of writers and literary texts in the public sphere, I have used the works by Nazir Ahmad, Altaf Husain Hali, Muhammad Iqbal and Nasim Hijazi to demonstrate what rhetorical devices they employed to achieve the desired effects; how they extended the more general concept of compassion ( hamdardī) to denote political solidarity; and how they modified emotion concepts such as honour and shame and passionate love and hatred to define the community and to further the emotional commitment to the ‘imagined community’ and active involvement in political activism.
Feeling communities: Introduction
Authors: Pernau Margrit
Published: February 2017

Scholarly literature for long only mentioned emotions in passing, although they were ubiquitous in the sources. This article argues that including them systematically can enhance our understanding of groups and communities, if emotions are historicised, and if the unproductive ways to read them as the opposite of interest and rationality are overcome. This allows to investigate emotions in a way which sees the relationship between the experience of emotions, their expression and the practices to which they lead not as a temporal sequence leading from an interior arousal of emotions to their exterior manifestation (or not). Instead, it investigates the interaction continuously moving in both directions—from emotions felt to emotions expressed, but also from the expression and performance as well as the interpretation of emotions back to how a certain emotion is actually felt. The first section shows where a systematic emotion history might either provide a new take on questions that have already been asked or raise new questions. The second section offers an overview of the ways in which collective emotions have been conceptualised and elaborates how this can be linked to the creation of emotional communities. The third section addresses the relationship between face-to-face communities and mediated communities.
Love and compassion for the community: Emotions and practices among North Indian Muslims, c. 1870–1930
Authors: Pernau Margrit
Published: February 2017

This article investigates how philosophical and ethical reflections, rhetorical strategies, and emotional practices intersect. In the first section, it lays out the traditional emotion knowledge found in Persian and Indo-Persian texts on moral philosophy written in the Aristotelian tradition, which still held an important place in the education of people writing in and reading journals like Aligarh’s Tahzību-l Akhlāq. The second section looks at the transformation of this knowledge in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries and provides a close reading of texts that address education and self-education issues while simultaneously exhorting readers to feel more compassionate (and often to prove their compassion through specific actions). The last section, finally, uses the Punjabi traders of Delhi as a case study to show how practices of philanthropy contributed to community building.

Compassion, the article argues, is a social emotion, but not necessarily an unequivocally benign emotion. It serves to construct a community and to negotiate its boundaries, but it is also a tool of exclusion and helps fortifying the communities’ internal hierarchies. The perception of the pain of others is as unequally distributed as the practices for its alleviation.
Rapid Bacterial Detection during Endodontic Treatment
Authors: Herzog D.B. , Hosny N.A. , Niazi S.A. , Koller G. , Cook R.J. , Foschi F. , Watson T.F. , Mannocci F. , Festy F.
Published: February 2017

Bacteria present in the root canal (RC) space following an RC treatment (RCT) can lead to persistent infections, resulting in treatment failure and the need for reintervention or extraction. Currently, there are no standardized methods in use to clinically detect bacterial presence within RC spaces. The use of paper point sampling and fluorescence staining was shown to be a rapid method, able to detect residual bacteria following treatment. The study demonstrated that Calcein acetoxymethyl (AM) proved to be a suitable dye for detecting vital bacteria within mature endodontic biofilms, with an improved sensitivity over colony-forming unit counting in a stressed biofilm model. Furthermore, in a clinical trial with primary RCTs, 53 infected teeth were sampled in vivo, and increased detection of vital cells was found when compared with colony-forming unit counting, highlighting the sensitivity of the technique in detecting low cell numbers. By combining fluorescent staining and microspectroscopy with software-based spectral analysis, successful detection of vital cells from RCs was possible after 5 min of Calcein AM incubation. Application of this technology during RCT has the potential to reduce persistent infections through vital cell detection and additional treatment. Furthermore, this technique could be applied to antimicrobial research and disinfection control in clinical settings ( ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03055975).
Market anticipations of conflict onsets
Authors: Chadefaux Thomas
Published: February 2017

Does the recurrence of wars suggest that we fail to recognize dangerous situations for what they are, and are doomed to repeat the errors of the past? Or rather that policymakers correctly anticipate the consequences of their actions but knowingly choose conflict? Unfortunately, little is known about how well wars are anticipated. Do conflicts tend to come as a surprise? I estimated the risk of war as perceived by contemporaries of all interstate and intrastate conflicts between 1816 and 2007. Using historical financial data of government bond yields, I find that market participants tend to underestimate the risk of war prior to its onset, and to react with surprise immediately thereafter. This result illustrates how conflict forecasts can be self-fulfilling or self-defeating. Present predictions may affect future behavior, such that wars may be less likely to occur when they are predicted, but more likely when they are not. I also show that the forecasting record has not improved over the past 200 years, and that wars involving democracies lead to greater market shocks. These findings also have implications for the way decisionmakers respond to new information, and how audiences perceive the risk of war and hence their leaders’ actions.
Effects of a Multimedia Professional Development Package on Inclusive Science Teachers’ Vocabulary Instruction
Authors: Kennedy Michael J. , Rodgers Wendy J. , Romig John Elwood , Lloyd John Wills , Brownell Mary T.
Published: February 2017

Vocabulary knowledge is vital for students’ success in school and beyond. However, students with disabilities and others who consistently score below their peers on various measures of vocabulary knowledge have difficulties in secondary-level content area courses. Because many students with disabilities are now educated primarily in general education classrooms, their teachers report needing more professional development on instructional strategies to support this population. Using a multiple-baseline design, we tested the efficacy of a multimedia, multicomponent professional development package in which middle school science teachers in inclusive classrooms promoted science vocabulary knowledge. The professional development package improved the quality of the teachers’ use of evidence-based vocabulary practices and increased the amount of time they spent explicitly teaching vocabulary in their classes.