Spatiotemporal Modeling of Coniferous Forests Dynamics along the Southern Edge of Their Range in the Central Russian Plain
Authors: Chernenkova Tatiana , Kotlov Ivan , Belyaeva Nadezhda , Suslova Elena 
Published: May 2021

Forests with predominance of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) H. Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) within the hemiboreal zone are considered as secondary communities formed under long-term human activity (logging, plowing, fires and silviculture). This study raises the question—how stable is current state of coniferous forests on the southern border of their natural distribution in the center of Eastern Europe using the example of the Moscow region (MR)? The object of the study are spruce and pine forests in different periods of Soviet and post-Soviet history within the Moscow Region (MR). The current proportion of spruce forests is 21.7%, and the proportion of pine forests is 18.5% from total forest area according to our estimates. The direction and rate of forest succession were analyzed based on current composition of populations of the main forest-forming species (spruce, pine, birch, aspen, oak, linden, and ash) based on ground-based research materials collected in 2006–2019. This allowed to develop the dynamic model (DM) of forest communities with the participation of Norway spruce and Scots pine for several decades. Assessment of the spatial distribution of coniferous communities is based on field data and spatial modeling using remote sensing data—Landsat 8 mosaic for 2020. In parallel, a retrospective model (RM) of the spatial-temporal organization of spruce and pine forests for a 30-year period was developed using two Landsat 5 mosaics. For this, nine different algorithms were tested and the best one for this task was found—random forest. Geobotanical relevés were used as a training sample combined with the 2006–2012 mosaic; the obtained spectral signatures were used for modeling based on the 1984–1990 mosaic. Thus, two multi-temporal spatial models of coniferous formations have been developed. Detailed analysis of the structure of spruce and pine forests based on field data made it possible to track trends of successional dynamics for the first time, considering the origin of communities and the ecological conditions of habitats. As a result, ideas about the viability of spruce and pine cenopopulations in different types of communities were formulated, which made possible to develop a dynamic model (DM) of changes in forest communities for future. Comparison of the areas and nature of changes in the spatial structure of coniferous formations made possible to develop the RM. Comparison of two different-time models of succession dynamics (DM and RM) makes possible to correct the main trends in the transformation of coniferous forests of natural and artificial origin under the existing regime of forestry. A set of features was identified that indicates risk factors for coniferous forests in the region. A further decrease of the spruce and pine plantations and increase of the spruce-small-leaved and deciduous formations are expected in the study area. The proportion of pine-spruce forests does not exceed 3% of the area and can be considered as the most vulnerable type of forest.