bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Contribution of Video Analysis of Elevator Experiments to Physics Achievement
Authors: İrven Fatih , Çorlu Mehmet Ali
Published: July 2024

The purpose of the study is to examine contribution of the experimental course materials and course activities produced from video records of physics experiments carried out in an elevator cab on learning efficiency in physics course. Quantitative research methods comprise the study pattern. The study was carried out in two different schools. Experimental group consists of 27 students, while control group consists of 46 students. In the study, data was collected by applying “Demographic Questionnaire, Virtual Experimental Questioning, Motion Experiments and Activities in Elevator and Diagnostic Concept Test in Elevator (DCTE). The obtained data were interpreted after making reliability & effect size analyses and t-test & one way ANOVA statistics. Learning efficiency of the course was interpreted by calculating according to Hake’s definition of learning gain. Reliability value of data obtained from DCTE is in 0.76; and significant differences were found in control and experimental groups. It is understood that the method applied to experimental group made significant and positive contribution to academic achievement of physics courses and learning efficiency in comparison to control group. Depending on study findings, “Using Experimental Video Course Materials in Elevator” can make positive contributions to secondary education physics curriculum.
Pre-Service Science Teachers Views of In-Service Science Teachers’ Pedagogical Content Knowledge
Authors: Mıhladız Gülcan , Timur Betül
Published: July 2024

The aim of this study was to determine the pre-service science teachers’ views on Pedagogical Content Knowledge (PCK) expected to be possessed by science and technology teachers. With this aim, senior preservice science teachers’ evaluations of the science and technology teachers that they observed at primary schools while they were enrolled in the school experience course. A “Focus Group Interview” was realized with 10 pre-service teachers. The data were analyzed by “descriptive statistics and content analysis methods” and 5 themes were attained. The five themes are: subject matter knowledge, the knowledge of instructional method and strategies, the knowledge of science curriculum, the knowledge of assessment of students and pedagogical knowledge. Generally, the pre-service teachers saw a necessity of the following issues in teaching science and technology: i) sufficient subject matter knowledge and effective communication skills, ii) establishing a balanced authority, iii) following modern innovations, methods and techniques for teaching and training and implementing them successfully in classrooms, iv) effectively usage of the teaching materials, educational technology, and lab facilities.
Developing of the Concept Cartoon, Animation and Diagnostic Branched Tree Supported Conceptual Change Text: “Gas Pressure”
Authors: Şahin Çiğdem , Çepni Salih
Published: July 2024

The aim of the study is to develop and introduce concept cartoon, animation and Diagnostic Branched Tree (DBT) supported Conceptual Change Text (CCT) related with “gas pressure” in the level of elementary 8th grade. The CCT is a teaching material based on conceptual change approach. It is preferred in order to achieve conceptual change in various studies. In the CCT, concept cartoons were used in order to provide that students clearly express their prior knowledge. Animations were used to concretize abstract concepts. Also, DBT was used in parallel with the specified in the Science and Technology Instruction Program alternative assessment and evaluation in order to provide that students discuss in the classroom. When taken into account that studies related with “gas pressure” is not enough and misconceptions related with “gas pressure” sufficiently are not studied in the Science and Technology course books, it is believed that the developed CCT in this study is an alternative source material for student and science teachers.
Undesired Behaviors Faced in Classroom by Physics Teachers in High Schools
Authors: Bayar Adem , Kerns James H.
Published: July 2024

The aim of this study is to define undesired behaviors in the classroom, to better understand the reasons of these undesired behaviors, and to offer strategies to overcome these behaviors. The researchers have used a qualitative research approach in this study. For this aim, the researchers have purposefully selected 12 physics teachers who work in different high schools in Amasya, Turkey. Then, the researchers have carried out open-ended interviews with teachers. Each interview lasted around 40 minutes, was recorded and transcribed. After analyzing the collected data, the researchers have found that teachers define undesired behaviors if the behavior 1) inhibited students’ learning 2) distracted the students’ attention 3) destroyed the students’ motivation and 4) reduced students’ desire to study. Furthermore, teachers have declared that because of following reasons, students demonstrate the undesirable behaviors. These are; lack of motivation, hopelessness to learn, hopelessness to be successful, lack of ready for topic, and prejudice to physics. Teachers have also mentioned that there might be some strategies to overcome the undesired behaviors in the classroom. These are; planned ignoring, signal interference, proximity control, using humor to defuse tension, removing distracting objects, changing student places, and time out. The findings of this study show that there exist undesirable behaviors in physics classes. Unless these determined behaviors have been removed, teaching and motivating of students will be more difficult for physics teachers and it negatively affects students’ learning and academic success. In this regard, the researchers have following recommendations: 1) classroom management lessons at the pre-service education level should be taught more efficiently 2) some professional development activities regarding classroom management should be offered for physics teachers 3) physics teachers should be encouraged to collaborate with psychologists, counselors, and guidance specialists to overcome and address undesirable behaviors in classroom 4) school administration should engage parents and collaborate with them by organizing periodical meetings and 5) school administration should arrange some social activities for students in school such as basketball tournament, soccer tournament, theatre, and etc.
Organizational and legal mechanisms for control of banking activities: comparative-legal analysis
Authors: Mustanov Ilxom ,   Tashkent State University of Law
Published: July 2024

In this article, the author analyzed the procedures, forms, and methods of control over the activities of banks by the central bank. The purpose of this study is to develop proposals and conclusions aimed at improving the banking control system as a result of the study. The main task of the Central Bank is to ensure the stability of the financial market, prices, and settlements. Based on this goal, the central bank will have the necessary legal instruments and financial leverage to ensure the stability of the financial system in accordance with the law. In the financial system, banks, their liquidity, protection from risks, and guaranteeing the rights and interests of depositors are first-level issues, and measures are applied to banks that do not comply with these rules in the prescribed manner. The Central Bank controls banks in two ways. The first method is the regulatory method, in which it determines the procedure for carrying out actions related to its activities and individual regulations and rules. The second method is prudential control, in which the central bank sets rules for regulating the economic activities of banks. However, these processes must be fairly enshrined in legislation in the prescribed manner. By studying these issues through a comparative analysis of domestic and foreign legislation using historical, legal, systemic, logical, statistical, and other methods, proposals have been developed to systematize the requirements for control over banks in national legislation and the measures applied. These proposals are used in scientific activities, lawmaking, law enforcement, the interpretation of banking legislation, and the improvement of national legislation.
"Synonymy and polysemy in legal terminology "
Authors: Gulyamova Gulnora ,   Tashkent State University of Law
Published: July 2024

This article discusses lexemes, which are the main lexical unit of language in the section of linguistics - lexicology, their semantic connection, synonymy in legal terminology, the phenomenon of polysemy, lexical synonyms, variation, a synonymous series consisting of proper and derivative, calque terms, as well as the principle of terms “one term – one concept”, linguistic factor – polysemy, polysemy of terms, their foreign interpretation, thematic groups of legal terms, and general legal thesaurus. In addition, the article pays attention to the frequency of synonymy, which can be observed in the interaction of legal terms. In addition, the article reveals the issue regarding such a phenomenon as the use in official legal texts of a number of terms expressed in two or more words, which negatively affects terminology. Using the example of a number of legal terminological dictionaries and encyclopedias, attention is drawn to lexical synonyms that contradict scientific and formal methods of language - cases of deviation from uniformity, a synonymous series consisting of proper and derived terms, simple and compound terms, the method of tracing, the formation of synonyms, a variant type of synonymy, and the phenomenon of polysemy (multiple meanings) in legal terminology. Conclusions and suggestions regarding the relationship of words and terms in Uzbek legal terminology are also given.
Spatial and temporal changes in autumn Eurasian snow cover and its relationship with the Arctic Oscillation
Authors: Marshall Gareth J.
Published: July 2024

Abstract. Previous studies have demonstrated that variations in the seasonal expansion of Eurasian snow cover (SC) can influence the following winter Arctic Oscillation (AO) and, consequently, affect mid-latitude weather. We examine changes in the extent and rate of autumn Eurasian SC advance and the temporal variability of the magnitude and sign of the SC-AO relationship. Novel aspects are (i) the use of the latest version of the 20th Century Reanalysis (20CR), allowing analysis back to 1836; (ii) adjusting the reanalysis SC through comparison with observations; and (iii) investigating spatial variation in the frequency of significant SC-AO relationships across Eurasia. Over the past 50 years the snow advance indices (SAI) demonstrate a slowing and accelerating of snow advance in October and November (p < 0.01), respectively, corresponding to a greater contemporaneous decrease in SC extent in October than November and thus a postponement of SC onset. The most temporally robust spatial SC-AO relationship is a longitudinal dipole such that positive (negative) relationships between October SAI and the AO are more frequent in western (eastern) Eurasia. As the sum of the two regional correlations closely matches the correlation for Eurasia as a whole, an especially strong October SAI-AO relationship occurs when the sign of the relationship in one of these regions is reversed from climatology. Future work will aim to determine the exact linkages behind this new finding in the context of contemporaneous changes in regional atmospheric circulation and snow cover and the many additional factors observed to influence the SC-AO relationship.
The introduction of a WMO RA II Research Development Project /19th Hangzhou Asian Games Research Development Project on Convective-scale Ensemble Prediction and Application (HangzhouRDP)
Authors: Chen Jing , Yao Mengying , Chen Feng
Published: July 2024

Abstract: The 19th Asian Games has been held in Hangzhou, China from 23 September to 8 October 2023 and 22 to 28 October 2023 for Asian Para Games. Heavy rainfall and strong gust wind during the Asian Games have high impact on relevant events, especially on those outdoor activities. How to combine forecast uncertainty and to provide more reliable forecast and early warning services was still one of the major scientific and social challenges. WMO RA II Focal Points on Research intend to initiate a WMO RA II Research Development Project / 19th Hangzhou Asian Games Research Development Project on Convective-scale Ensemble Prediction and Application (HangzhouRDP). The Scientific objectives were as follows:1) Understand the impact of multi-scale initial errors and model errors on the prediction of high-resolution models and ehe forecast uncertainty of local severe convective weather.2) Demonstrate the improvement of forecasting and early warning capabilities at sub-kilometer scale and minute scale by utilizing the uncertainty information from ensemble forecast.3) Develop convective-scale ensemble prediction, postprocessing and verification method at sub-kilometer  meter and minute scale.4) Share the experience gained with RA II members through training courses.The project has conducted demonstration and application by developing convective-scale Ensemble Prediction System (EPS, including 1 km deterministic model and 3 km ensemble model) and using minute scale multi-source observations, gain a deep understanding toward the influence of multi-scale initial errors and model errors on high-resolution model forecasts, understand the forecast uncertainty of local severe weather event, demonstrate the improvement of forecast and early warning services of weather events at hundred-meters scale and minute scale brought by uncertainly information of ensemble forecast, and provide technical methods and references for RA II members on carrying out forecast and early warning services of high-impact weather at hundred-meters scale and minute scale.The project was designed to be jointly led by Zhejiang Meteorological Bureau (ZMB) and Centre for Earth System Modeling and Prediction of China Meteorological Administration (CEMC), along with the participation of National Meteorological Centre (NMC), CMA Huafeng Group, and WMO Regional Training Centre Beijing (CMA Training Centre, CMATC). The project expected to run for two years, including system development, data transmission test, ensemble prediction system construction in half a year, and case study and forecast evaluation of societal/economic impact in one and a half years. The project focused on improving 0-36 h forecast and early warning capabilities of local rainfall and wind using uncertainty information from ensemble forecast.
Role of Social networks in modern communication strategies
Authors: Klančar Matija
Published: July 2024

Social networks play a key role in modern communication strategies. This also enables the Slovenian Environment Agency (ARSO) to quickly and efficiently share important information, such as weather forecasts, weather and hydrological warnings, monitoring current weather and hydrological events. With the help of platforms such as Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram, the agency can reach both the general public and target groups, increasing its relevance and presence among a wide circle of people. Social networks thus become a bridge between the agency and the general public, enabling two-way communication, immediate feedback, and greater transparency of the agency's activities.In recent years, when information circulates faster than ever before, presence on social networks is crucial for maintaining and enhancing the reputation and influence of institutions like ARSO. By being actively present on these platforms, we can more easily spread their mission among a wider audience.The summer of 2023 was extreme for several reasons. Slovenia was hit by August floods, and destructive storms occurred every few days. In the lecture, I will present the ARSO weather and ARSO water social networks and their presence on various channels during extreme weather and hydrological events.
Strengthening Partnerships and Showcasing Services: A Collaborative Event by the Slovenian Meteorological Society and the Slovenian Environment Agency
Authors: Cegnar Tanja
Published: July 2024

On the occasion of World Water Day and World Meteorological Day, the Slovenian Meteorological Society and the Slovenian Environment Agency jointly organized an event to showcase services provided by the meteorological community and the Hydrometeorological office. This gathering served as a platform to celebrate the advancements in meteorological and hydrological sciences while fostering stronger ties with business partners and engaging journalists to highlight the essential services provided by the meteorological community to society.The event aimed to recognize the critical role of meteorology and hydrology in addressing environmental challenges. At the same time, it provided an opportunity for knowledge exchange, networking, and collaboration among experts, practitioners, and stakeholders.Journalists were invited to attend the event, creating a bridge between meteorological experts and the public. Through interviews and feature articles, journalists highlighted the vital services provided by the meteorological service and the meteorological society. This increased awareness and appreciation for the role of meteorology in safeguarding society.
Dynamical life-cycle and teleconnections of North American and Euro-Atlantic weather regimes
Authors: Messori Gabriele , Lee Simon , Dorrington Joshua
Published: July 2024

Weather regimes are recurrent and quasi-stationary large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, typically linking to surface weather. They have been defined over multiple regions and used in a range of practical applications, including forecasting, the study of atmospheric circulation trends and climate model evaluation. Despite their widespread use, the extent to which regimes reflect physical modes of the atmosphere is seldom investigated. Similarly, the statistical and physical connections between weather regimes defined over different geographical regions have been largely left unstudied. Here, we consider two widely-used sets of weather regimes: North American and Euro-Atlantic regimes. By leveraging dynamical systems theory, we find that when the atmospheric flow is assigned to a regime, it displays persistent characteristics and a lifecycle-like temporal evolution. We further find that these characteristics are enhanced when the atmospheric flow displays a comparatively strong projection onto the cluster-mean of the regime to which it is assigned (while the reverse is true for a weaker projection). We argue that this is evidence supporting the physical relevance of both North American and Euro-Atlantic weather regimes. We next consider the connection between the two sets of regimes. Specific pairs of regimes show a close visual and statistical correspondence. Moreover, the joint analysis of the two sets of regimes can provide medium-range statistical predictability for anomalies in their occurrence frequencies. Conditioning on North American weather regimes also results in anomalies in both the large-scale circulation during specific Euro-Atlantic regimes, and the associated European surface weather. We conclude that there is a benefit in conducting joint analyses of North American and Euro-Atlantic weather regimes, as opposed to considering the two in isolation.
In-flight calibration and performance monitoring of Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS)
Authors: Eo Mijin , Ahn Myounghwan , Kang Mina , Lee Yeeun
Published: July 2024

Geostationary Environmental Monitoring Spectrometer (GEMS), on-board Geostationary Korea Multi-Purpose Satellite-2B (GK-2B), is the first geostationary environmental instrument to be the Asian component of the global geostationary constellation for pollution monitoring together with the European Sentinel-4 and the North American Tropospheric Emissions: Monitoring of Pollution (TEMPO).  GEMS is a hyper grating spectrometer that hourly measure backscattered solar spectral radiance from the ultraviolet to visible (300 to 500 nm) with 0.6 nm spectral resolution and 3.5 (7 for trace gases) * 8 km2 spatial resolution over the Seoul in the daytime. These radiances are used to retrieve spatial and temporal distributions of aerosol and trace gases such as O3, NO2, SO2 and HCHO.  Since the performance of trace gas retrieval strongly depends on the quality of raw data, the in-flight characteristics have been analyzed and calibrated in detector, radiometric and spectral aspects. Furthermore long-term performance of GEMS have been monitored and analyzed for the dark current, electronic offsets, non-linearity, diffuser and the output of the internal light sources. The orbital performance of GEMS shows that the number of incurred dead and bad pixels due to cosmic-ray impacts is 0.05% increased over the three full year since the operations. The dark signal distributions of on-orbit dark images show 9.02% increased dark mean which indicates a gradually degraded detector CCD performance. The orbital electronic biases from averaging trailing pixels show quite stable status in orbit around 900-1050 counts depending on each quadrant. In-orbit PRNU (< 7%) and non-linearity(< 2%) of 5-95% CCD full well signals meet the system requirements and show stable status. However, there is a possibility that remaining 10% non-linearity effects on the shortwave signals under the 5% CCD full well in early morning or late afternoon. Trends over the three full year of nominal operations indicates stable status of GEMS with gradually degraded detector and diffuser performances. The detailed results and the orbital and long-term stability for internal light source (LED), dark currents and solar irradiance measurements are going to be presented.
The challenges of vegetation - atmosphere coupling in the roughness sublayer of a numerical weather prediction system
Authors: Viana Samuel , Shapkalijevski Metodija
Published: July 2024

Many studies have shown that the standard flux-gradient relations based on the similarity theory (MOST) are not fully applicable close to a surface covered with high roughness elements, due to the canopy-induced turbulent mixing caused by their interaction with the atmospheric flow. The effects of the so called roughness sublayer (RSL) on the surface-atmosphere coupling became more important since the lowest atmospheric level in NWP systems has been placed closer to the (vegetation or urban) canopies acting as roughness elements, entering the RSL. This in turn affects the effective surface fluxes of momentum, energy and gasses between the canopy and the atmosphere.Different corrections to the traditional MOST attempting to account for the RSL effects on the surface layer theory are available. In this work we integrate Harman and Finnigan’s RSL theory (HF2008) into SURFEX8.1, a land surface model which is extensively used both offline and coupled to different NWP atmospheric models. HF2008 stands out as the most advanced theory of the RSL. It has been tested over forests and urban areas and implemented in land surface and NWP models, adding increased physical details in the classical similarity theory over a vegetated surface, and thus improving the surface-atmosphere coupling in NWP systems above tall vegetation. Our implementation is tested both through offline SURFEX experiments and online simulations in the Harmonie-Arome operational NWP system, and validated against observations in forest stations from the ICOS network. We address the differences in performance of the parameterisation, caused mainly by assumptions and simplifications usually done in the vegetation-atmosphere coupling in NWP systems.
Unravelling moisture sources for precipitation in atmospheric rivers
Authors: Crespo-Otero Alfredo , Insua-Costa Damián , Míguez-Macho Gonzalo
Published: July 2024

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are filaments of enhanced moisture in the atmosphere, typically located in subtropical and mid-latitudes oceanic regions. These structures are of extreme importance for the climate of the western coasts, as they provide a large fraction of the annual precipitation recorded in these areas. In addition, ARs can eventually cause extreme rainfall when the enormous amounts of water vapor they carry are abruptly forced upwards. As a result, much research has been done on ARs in recent years, and one of their most studied and debated properties is the origin of the moisture in them. Although some studies have identified sources using different moisture transport models for specific AR cases, it remains unclear whether tropical or extratropical contributions are generally more prevalent, and even the AR definition in the Glossary of Meteorology reflects this lack of consensus.To fill this gap, a climatology of moisture sources for precipitation in ARs is needed. There are a variety of moisture transport models that can be employed to address this issue. However, they tend to produce considerably different results, and the lack of observations hampers any validation. Here we use the WRF with Water Vapor Tracers (WRF-WVTs) model as a proxy for reality to validate a Lagrangian moisture transport technique based on the FLEXPART model for selected cases. This allows us to minimize the discrepancies with the WRF-WVTs model, assumed to be the most accurate moisture tracking method, while efficiently simulating air particle trajectories within a wider range of ARs with a Lagrangian tool.Preliminary results reveal a wide diversity of moisture sources, including both oceanic and continental regions, with substantial variability in their contributions across different AR cases. Importantly, our findings also indicate a less relevant role of tropical moisture than previously known. Ultimately, this highlights the complexity of the moisture uptake process in ARs.
Looking backwards and looking forwards:  outcomes and prospects for the WMO WWRP Value Chain Project
Authors: Hoffmann David , Ebert Beth , Mooney Carla
Published: July 2024

The Value Chain Project is a 4-year initiative under the WMO World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). The Project aims to review value chain practices used to describe and understand weather, warning and climate services; assess and provide guidance on how to effectively apply value chains in a weather warning context involving multiple uses and partnerships; and create a searchable warning database that researchers and practitioners can use to explore the organisation and performance of actual end-to-end warning chains for high impact events, and assess their effectiveness using value chain approaches.  

The anticipated benefits from the project were manifold and included providing National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) and private weather and climate providers with resources, tools and knowledge to be able to apply the value chain to measure and improve the effectiveness of their early warning systems.  

The value chain concept is useful for understanding the strengths and weakness of existing services, decision making about investment in improvements and the design of new warning systems. The Framework, which is a key output from the project, provides a multi-faceted guide for NMHS in developed and developing countries to combine social and physical sciences to enhance early warning systems.  

The value chain questionnaire, developed as part of the project, allows a forensic end-to-end evaluation of high-impact weather events to assess the performance of warning systems for a specific weather event.  It can be adopted by any NMHS to assess their services, as done by the UK Met Office.  

The growing collection of case studies (that will be stored in an accessible searchable online database) will give visibility to best practice in successful early warning systems and lessons learnt from high impact weather events.  The opportunity for doing cross-case analyses of countries, hazard types and early warning systems will facilitate access to insights on the elements of effective early warning systems in different contexts.  

The project has explored the value chain both as a way of thinking and as a methodology. The collaboration of the 40-member interdisciplinary project team from academia, public and private weather providers across a range of activities has contributed significantly to its impact. The involvement and contribution of this group has extended the reach of the project and created novel learning opportunities and interactions. The resources and tools developed through the project will support more systematic and rigorous decision making and by extension the capacity of NMHS to improve the social and economic value of the services they provide. 
This presentation will summarise the project’s achievements over the past four years and outline ongoing applications of the project’s deliverables. 
Lessons learned on implemenation of the OGC EDR API
Authors: Visa Mikko , Rauhala Mikko
Published: July 2024

Recently there has been many initiatives in the meteorological community and outside on implementing OGC API interfaces, especially OGC API EDR. Based on these efforts it seems that OGC API EDR will be a foundation technology in many initiatives and domains including WMO WIS2 (1), EUMETNET FEMDI (2) (aiming to provide high-value datasets required to the EU open data directive) and ICAO SWIM (3) services in the aviation domain.  This presentation will touch on how the challenges are adressed in context of the RODEO project between participants in the project. In the project it was noticed that the implementations of different insitutes complied with the standard but were in fact still not compatible as the output was different. This led to the need and discussion on how we would achieve more interoperability between the actual output content provided by the API's. It was clear that some kind of agreement was needed between the partners in the project. Work on this challenge has also been started in the OGC context as well to add support for so called profiles. Challenges, current status of this work and lessons learned during the development will be presented.(1) WMO Information System 2.0: framework for WMO data sharing(2) EUMETNET FEMDI: Federated European Meteorological Data Infrastructure. Unified access to European weather data.(3) ICAO SWIM: System Wide Information Management concept consists of standards, infrastructure and governance enabling the management of ATM related information and its exchange between qualified parties via interoperable services (ICAO Doc.10039). This includes weather information.
How unusual is the recent decade-long pause in Arctic summer sea ice retreat?
Authors: DeRepentigny Patricia , Massonnet François , Bilbao Roberto , Materia Stefano
Published: July 2024

The Earth has warmed significantly over the past 40 years, and the fastest rate of warming has occurred in and around the Arctic. The warming of northern high latitudes at a rate of almost four times the global average (Rantanen et al., 2022), known as Arctic amplification, is associated with sea ice loss, glacier retreat, permafrost degradation, and expansion of the melting season. Since the mid-2000s, summer sea ice has exhibited a rapid decline, reaching record minima in September sea ice area in 2007 and 2012. However, after the early 2010s, the downward trend of minimum sea ice area appears to decelerate (Swart et al., 2015; Baxter et al., 2019). This apparent slowdown and the preceding acceleration in the rate of sea ice loss are puzzling in light of the steadily increasing rate of greenhouse gas emissions of about 4.5 ppm yr−1 over the past decade (Friedlingstein et al., 2023) that provides a constant climate forcing. Recent studies suggest that low-frequency internal climate variability may have been as important as anthropogenic influences on observed Arctic sea ice decline over the past four decades (Dörr et al., 2023; Karami et al., 2023). Here, we investigate how unusual this decade-long pause in Arctic summer sea ice decline is within the context of internal climate variability. To do so, we first assess how rare this is deceleration of Arctic sea ice loss is by comparing it to trends in CMIP6 historical simulations. We also use simulations from the Decadal Climate Prediction Project (DCPP) contribution to CMIP6 to determine if initializing decadal prediction systems from estimates of the observed climate state substantially improves their performance in predicting the slowdown in Arctic sea ice loss over the past decade. As the DCPP does not specify the data or the methods to be used to initialize forecasts or how to generate ensembles of initial conditions, we also assess how different formulations affect the skill of the forecasts by analyzing differences between models. This work provides an opportunity to attribute this pause in Arctic sea ice retreat to interannual internal variability or radiative external forcings, something that observation analysis alone cannot achieve.
Design areal precipitation in Czech catchments – radar data usage instead of station data reduction
Authors: Hulec Filip , Kašpar Marek , Müller Miloslav
Published: July 2024

Design precipitation intensity is an essential variable used in water management practice. In particular, it is essential for the hydrological modeling of proposed measures in ungauged catchments. However, point design precipitation totals cannot be used in larger catchments as they do not include information on the areal variability of precipitation. Therefore, in practice, point design precipitation totals are reduced to catchment areas using empirically derived Area Reduction Factors that are subject to a number of uncertainties. To reduce these uncertainties, we present here an evaluation of areal design precipitation derived from radar data using the Czech Republic as an example.The input dataset is radar reflectivity data at an altitude of 2 km (pseudo-CAPPI 2km) for 20 years between 2002 and 2021 with a temporal resolution of 10 minutes and a spatial resolution of 1 km. These data are then adjusted with daily precipitation totals from stations. From the adjusted precipitation intensities, precipitation totals are determined for durations from 30 minutes to 3 days. From these rainfall totals, their areal averages are calculated for individual catchments at four hierarchical levels. From these, the L-moment method is used to derive Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution parameters, which are used to determine design areal precipitation totals in the considered catchments for all considered durations.Naturally, as the catchment area increases, the areal design precipitation decreases. The average  1-hour design precipitation total with a return period of 20 years is 36 mm for the smallest catchments, whereas the design precipitation is approximately half of that for a catchment of 1000 km2. However, for longer periods of rainfall accumulation, the decrease is not as pronounced. Therefore, on larger catchments, larger ratios of the design totals are achieved between longer and shorter accumulation times. In terms of the spatial distribution of design areal precipitation totals, the design 1-hour totals are very randomly distributed, with an obvious dependence on the catchment size. On the contrary, in the case of the design 24-hour totals, the influence of georelief is a major factor, with the highest totals being strongly concentrated in the mountains and their foothills.We have shown that the adjusted radar data are suitable for estimating design area precipitation over the catchment, although the longer return periods are particularly subject to the uncertainty caused by the short data series. The demonstrated influence of georelief on longer accumulation times then points to the inappropriateness of the approach of deriving design areal precipitation using reduction coefficients empirically derived from point values for large areas. Radar data, allowing direct calculation of design areal precipitation totals for a specific catchment, seem to be more appropriate.
Complex shapes of rainfall depth-duration-frequency curves
Authors: Müller Miloslav , Crhová Lenka , Kašpar Marek
Published: July 2024

Frequency analysis of rainfall intensities or rainfall depths (precipitation totals) is usually performed by estimating respective design values occurring on average once per a given number of years (return period N). Estimates of design rainfall depths RN (design precipitation totals) with a given frequency F = 1 / N for different rainfall durations D can be fitted with a depth-duration-frequency (DDF) curve defined by a suitable mathematical function. For a given return period, the DDF curve depicts the increase of the design precipitation total when increasing the duration (length of the considered time window). Thus, each DDF curve is monotonically increasing, while its slope gradually decreases with increasing rainfall duration.For a limited range of rainfall durations (e.g., from 0.5 to 3 hours), design precipitation totals can be fitted by a single power function. However, this statistical model becomes less reliable or even useless when employing either shorter or longer durations, because the DDF curve gets a much more complex shape then. We also provide a possible explanation of such complex shapes of DDF curves as a result of different meteorological conditions producing high precipitation totals of different durations. Two tipping points of the DDF curve can be due to the transition from the scale of single convective cells to the scale of whole multicellular storms, as well as from the scale of multicellular storms to the synoptic scale. Thus, differences of shapes of DDF curves between lowlands and highlands can be explained by changes of representation of convective and stratiform rains among precipitation maxima of different duration.
The AMS Equity assessment consists of lessons learned and next steps.
Authors: Kafka Stella
Published: July 2024

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) has been actively involved in the equity space through various initiatives and commitments to foster inclusivity, diversity, and equity within its community and the broader field of atmospheric sciences. Since 1973, AMS has undertaken efforts to create a more inclusive and equitable environment, guided by its Board on Representation, Accessibility, Inclusion, and Diversity (BRAID) and the Culture and Inclusion Cabinet (CIC). These groups lead various initiatives and work to integrate equity, inclusion, and justice into all aspects of the society's activities​ (American Meteorological Society)​. These efforts reflect AMS's commitment to creating a diverse, inclusive, and equitable environment that supports all its members and contributes positively to the field of meteorological sciences. We are committed to ensuring our Society is a place where everyone belongs.In 2023, the AMS also conducted an Equity Assessment, a comprehensive process to integrate equity, inclusion, and justice (EIJ) into our programmatic activities and policies. This assessment aims to gather insights about the experiences of members, volunteers, and staff regarding EIJ, helping to foster a sense of belonging and guiding future actions. The process involves culture surveys and follow-up focus groups to understand and address the needs and challenges faced by the AMS community​. In this presentation, we will discuss the process we followed for this assessment and the critical findings, aiming to initiate a thoughtful discussion with our sister societies to build a more inclusive community in the Meteorological sciences. We hope to begin conversations that could benefit all societies and create a unified practice of belonging within our communities.
From Data to Action: Leveraging Narrative Technologies for Climate Communication 
Authors: Ransom Claire , Baddour Omar
Published: July 2024

In an era marked by the urgency of climate action, effective communication of complex scientific data is paramount. This presentation will delve into innovative strategies for communicating complex climate science, specifically looking at the use of interactive narrative technologies known as StoryMaps.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has employed StoryMaps to unpack climate indicators as reported on by the State of the Climate reports since 2020. These reports, vital to understanding global climatic shifts, are made more accessible and engaging through interactive data visualization and mapping techniques, with overwhelmingly positive feedback garnered from stakeholders and the public alike. Of more than 1700 survey respondents, approximately 95% reported improved understanding of climate change processes or impacts after engaging with the StoryMaps. This demonstrates the effectiveness of StoryMaps in bridging the gap between complex scientific information and improved public awareness. Furthermore, more than 90% of respondents reported heightened inspiration to take climate action. By empowering users to better understand the various components of the climate system, their changes and impacts, narrative tools such as StoryMaps can therefore be a powerful tool for translating knowledge into action.
In addition to presenting on the utility of the StoryMaps themselves, lessons learnt for more general communication strategies will also be addressed—specifically utilizing supporting visual material, contextualizing results with their related development impacts and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and fostering interactivity. By incorporating these elements, we uncover broader insights into effective communication strategies, demonstrating how they can be applied across various platforms to engage audiences and enhance understanding of complex climate data. Overall, through this presentation, we aim to offer insights on enhanced communication techniques for complex scientific concepts, thereby inspiring greater collective action towards a more sustainable future.

 
Forecasting road conditions on gravel roads
Authors: Karsisto Virve
Published: July 2024

Gravel roads constitute a significant portion of rural transportation networks. In Finland, 27 000 km of state roads and most of the 350 000 km of private roads are gravel roads. Gravel roads are subject to seasonal and weather-induced variations that greatly affect their drivability. The frost layer during winter increases the load-bearing capacity of the road, allowing extra heavy trucks to pass. However, the thawing of ice in spring causes muddy roads that are impassable by heavy vehicles. Information about gravel road conditions and timing of road freezing and thawing is vital for planning timber transportation and is useful for private road users and emergency services as well. Currently used methods for predicting gravel road conditions in Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI) are coarse and do not account for local variations. However, FMI is in the process of developing a new model for predicting gravel road conditions. The model is based on the FMI’s road weather model RoadSurf that is used on asphalt roads. RoadSurf is one dimensional heat balance model that forecasts road surface temperature and road conditions. The model’s parameters will be adjusted, particularly those related to physical properties like thermal conductivity, to better represent gravel road conditions. The accumulation of snow, ice and water on the road will be also modified. Additionally, the model will be enhanced to account for water flow in the road. The weather during autumn and winter considerably affects the severity of the spring thaw weakening. Rainy autumn and mild winter cause higher water content and slower freezing, which causes more severe spring thaw weakening. On the other hand, fast freezing at the start of the winter usually leads to meager spring thaw weakening. To take into account the long-term variations, the length of the gravel road simulations needs to be considerably longer than when predicting asphalt road conditions. The model will be verified by using observations from stations that measure gravel road temperature and moisture through electric conductivity at different depths.
Can statistical downscaling improve the skill of Seasonal Forecast over Iberian Peninsula? 
Authors: Domínguez-Alonso Marta , Senande-Rivera Martín , Pérez-Pérez Francisco Javier , Rodríguez-Guisado Esteban
Published: July 2024

Quality and high-resolution seasonal forecast is a key aspect for planning and adapting strategies of different socio-economic sectors, providing knowledge of seasonal anomalies a few months ahead (Buontempo et al., 2018). These downscaled forecast can be used as input to impact models (e.g. crop or hydrology), developing climate services applications. However, the skill of seasonal forecasts is limited over mid-latitudes, as a consequence of the limited predictability at seasonal scale (Doblas-Reyes et al., 2013). The potential showed in postprocessing methods to improve the skill of seasonal forecast and its high case-dependent on region, season or application (Manzanas et al., 2020) have been the motivation to carry out this work. A statistical downscaling method developed by AEMET (Petisco, 2008a; Petisco 2008b; Amblar, 2017) have been applied to different runs of ECMWF- SEAS5, covering winter, spring and summer periods, on a domain centered over the Iberian Peninsula. The twenty-years (1997-2016) hindcast (25-members) have been considered as model-climatological reference. A very deep evaluation process of the method had been published with satisfactory results (Hernanz et al. 2022a, d, e). The algorithm makes successive use of an analogue technique -based on a Euclidean distance- and multivariate regression to downscale maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation at daily timescale, through a selection of large-scale model circulation variables (predictors) linked to the local observed variable of interest (predictand). The method uses a high resolution observational gridded dataset developed by AEMET (Peral et al., 2017) (0.05º), covering the peninsular Spain and the Balearic Islands. We have obtained results for mean seasonal temperature and accumulated seasonal precipitation for the follow metrics: the forecasted anomaly, the lower and upper forecasted probabilities and the AreaROC for lower and upper terciles. They show improved spatial detail of the probability of occurrence compared to raw SEAS5 and high values of ROC area (spatially and in percentage), allowing to conclude that at least in certain seasons and over the Iberian Peninsula, the downscaling algorithm developed by AEMET provides added value to ECMWF-S5 seasonal forecasts.