Low‐Skill Emigration from Mexico to the United States. Current Situation, Prospects and Government Policy
Authors: Escobar‐Latapí Agustin 
Published: March 2003

Low‐skill labour migration from Mexico to the US is a dominant aspect of general Mexico‐US migration. It is of even greater importance in undocumented migration in general and in undocumented border flows, and as such has become a growing source of concern and initial coordination and collaboration between the two governments. Its visibility made it a primary target for the recent Immigration Act of 1996, and is by far over‐represented in apprehension and deportation statistics.

At once unwanted and needed, low‐skill Mexicans in the US have been at the core of immigration "problems", and are beginning to receive the kind of policy attention that might, in the medium‐term, change the face of migration in North America.

The prospects for Mexican low‐skill migration to the US will be determined, to a large extent, by the following:

– Changing Mexican demographic dynamics means that the US‐Mexico demographic gap will become less significant as a factor in supply‐side migration pressure in the medium‐term.

– Mexico’s crises and its process of restructuring were significant factors fostering emigration in the eighties. Currently, growth of formal, paid jobs is becoming a more significant factor in labour force expansion. This could help diminish emigration pressure, but will at best be a gradual process, subject to the continuation of steady economic growth.

– In the US, the restructuring of employment was a force behind the growth of immigration during the eighties; during the nineties sheer labour force growth seems to have been the dominant factor underlying labour immigration.

– Due to the growth of migration and the spread of social networks in the eighties, labour migrants today are likely to respond faster and more efficiently to changing conditions in supply, demand and policy factors, such as border enforcement and restrictions on immigrant rights. Should market factors persist, migration will do likewise but for significant changes in policy and enforcement, mainly at the employment level.

Migration has continued to grow during the nineties and deportations and expulsions of Mexicans are massive. But the two governments are now systematically discussing migration and other bilateral issues. Specifically, the process by which undocumented Mexicans are returned to their country is now carried out in an orderly fashion and with remarkable improvements in their treatment. There are improvements in the treatment of complaints, and reports of abuses have dropped. However, such programmes involving undocumented migration are of little significance. There are working examples of programmes that may provide lessons on possible legal alternatives to the large undocumented flows.

The article recommends that any large‐scale migrant worker programme be bilateral in nature. There are two reasons for this. First, bilateral enforcement is likely to better protect migrant rights. Second, Mexican involvement in the process of return (and prolonged stay) in Mexico is likely to minimize the conversion of temporary, circular migration into other, more permanent kinds.