bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Collateral and Competitive Equilibria with Moral Hazard and Private Information
Authors: CHAN YUK‐SHEE , THAKOR ANJAN V.
Published: April 2012

The authors examine equilibrium credit contracts and allocations under different competitivity specifications and explain the economic roles of collateral under these specifications. Both moral hazard and adverse selection are considered. The principal message is that how a competitive equilibrium is conceptualized significantly affects the characterization of equilibrium credit contracts. Specifically, some well‐known results in the rationing literature are shown to rest delicately on the adopted equilibrium concept. Two somewhat surprising results emerge. First, high‐quality borrowers with unlimited collateral may be priced out of the market despite the bank having idle deposits. Second, high‐quality borrowers may put up more collateral.
Managerial Incentives and Corporate Investment and Financing Decisions
Authors: AGRAWAL ANUP , MANDELKER GERSHON N.
Published: April 2012

This paper examines the relationship between common stock and option holdings of managers and the choice of investment and financing decisions by firms. The authors find support for the hypothesis of a positive relationship between the security holdings of managers and the changes in firm variance and in financial leverage. This conclusion is based on samples of acquiring and divesting firms. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that executive security holdings have a role in reducing agency problems.
Mean‐Variance Spanning
Authors: HUBERMAN GUR , KANDEL SHMUEL
Published: April 2012

The authors propose a likelihood‐ratio test of the hypothesis that the minimum‐variance frontier of a set of K assets coincides with the frontier of this set and another set of N assets. They study the relation between this hypothesis, exact arbitrage pricing, and mutual fund separation. The exact distribution of the test statistic is available. The authors test the hypothesis that the frontier spanned by three size‐sorted stock portfolios is the same as the frontier spanned by thirty‐three size‐sorted stock portfolios.
Corporate Financial Policy, Information, and Market Expectations: An Empirical Investigation of Dividends
Authors: OFER AHARON R. , SIEGEL DANIEL R.
Published: April 2012

This paper documents a relationship between announcements of unexpected changes in financial policy and unexpected changes in performance of the firm. Using a new methodology that combines analysis of stock price movements and earnings forecast data, the authors provide evidence that analysts revise their earnings forecasts following the announcement of an unexpected dividend change by an amount positively related to the size of the unexpected dividend change. They also provide evidence that these revisions are positively related to the change in equity value surrounding the announcement. Further, they find that these revisions are consistent with rationality. Their results therefore provide direct evidence consistent with the hypothesis that unexpected dividend changes signal information about firm performance to market participants.
Stock Splits and Stock Dividends: Why, Who, and When
Authors: LAKONISHOK JOSEF , LEV BARUCH
Published: April 2012

This study investigates empirically why firms split their stock or distribute stock dividends and why the market reacts favorably to these distributions. The findings suggest that stock splits are mainly aimed at restoring stock prices to a “normal range.” Some support can also be found for the oft‐mentioned signalling motive of stock splits. Stock dividends are altogether different from stock splits, and they appear to be a decreasing phenomenon. The clue to stock dividend distributions may lie in their perceived substitution for relatively low cash dividends.
An Empirical Investigation of the Market for Comex Gold Futures Options
Authors: BAILEY WARREN
Published: April 2012

Option‐pricing models that assume a constant interest rate may misprice futures options if the interest rate fluctuates significantly or if the price of the underlying asset is correlated with the interest rate. The futures option‐pricing model of Ramaswamy and Sundaresan allows for a stochastic interest rate and correlation of the underlying asset's price with the interest rate. Using a data set of daily closing prices for Comex gold futures options, this paper tests the Ramaswamy and Sundaresan model against a constant interest rate model. Results indicate that the stochastic interest rate model is a superior predictor of market prices.
The Seasonal Stability of the Factor Structure of Stock Returns
Authors: CHO D. CHINHYUNG , TAYLOR WILLIAM M.
Published: April 2012

This paper investigates the month‐by‐month stability of (a) daily returns and correlation coefficients of stock returns, (b) correlation and covariance matrices, (c) number of return‐generating factors, and (d) the APT pricing relationship. The results show that there is a January effect and a small‐firm effect in stock returns. Correlation matrices are more stable than covariance matrices, but both types of matrices are not stable across months and across the sample groups. The number of return‐generating factors is rather stable most of the time and for most of the sample groups, but there is some significant instability that is related to the average correlation coefficients among stocks. The APT pricing relationship does not seem to be supported by the two‐stage process using the maximum‐likelihood factor analysis.
The Issue Decision of Manager‐Owners under Information Asymmetry
Authors: BRADFORD WILLIAM D.
Published: April 2012

A firm must issue common stock in order to undertake a new investment, and the firm's manager‐owners can value the firm more accurately than the market. The ability of the manager‐owners to trade in the firm's shares during the issue (a) reduces the investments that are foregone because of the market's mispricing the firm's shares, (b) changes the size and direction of the stock price change when the firm announces a new stock issue, and (c) changes the market value of the firm before and after the issue announcement, whether or not it decides to issue.
The Temporal Price Relationship between S&P 500 Futures and the S&P 500 Index
Authors: KAWALLER IRA G. , KOCH PAUL D. , KOCH TIMOTHY W.
Published: April 2012

This paper empirically examines the intraday price relationship between S&P 500 futures and the S&P 500 index using minute‐to‐minute data. Three‐stage least‐squares regression is used to estimate lead and lag relationships with estimates for expiration days of the S&P 500 futures compared with estimates for days prior to expiration. The results suggest that futures price movements consistently lead index movements by twenty to forty‐five minutes while movements in the index rarely affect futures beyond one minute.
Death and Taxes: The Market for Flower Bonds
Authors: MAYERS DAVID , SMITH CLIFFORD W.
Published: April 2012

Certain U.S. Government securities, known as flower bonds, can be redeemed at par plus accrued interest for the purpose of paying estate taxes, if held at the time of death. Thus, a flower bond, selling at a discount, is like a straight bond plus a life insurance policy. An equilibrium derived from a rational flower bond pricing model implies the existence of clienteles: individuals with the highest death probabilities hold the deepest discount flower bonds. The empirical implication, that bonds with the deepest discount should be redeemed at the fastest rate, is tested and the results support the proposition.
An Alternative Testable Form of the Consumption CAPM
Authors: KAZEMI HOSSEIN B.
Published: April 2012

This paper develops a consumption‐oriented model of asset prices in a multigood economy that is, in principle, testable even when aggregate consumption of goods and their market prices are only partially observable. Previous studies show that, when there are m consumption goods, equilibrium expected excess returns on securities are functions of their covariances with variables—aggregate consumption expenditure and market prices of consumption goods. Without making any further assumptions, the present model shows that a similar equilibrium relationship can be expressed in terms of covariances of asset returns with the following variables: market prices of k consumption goods and aggregate consumption of goods. Because the author's result provides researchers with some flexibility in choosing the set of variables that measure riskiness of securities, it should lead to more powerful tests of the model.
A Theory of Noise Trading in Securities Markets
Authors: TRUEMAN BRETT
Published: April 2012

In a recent article, Black [1] introduces a type of trading that he terms noise trading. He asserts that noise trading, which he defines as trading on noise as if it were information, must be a significant factor in securities markets. However, he does not provide an explanation of why any investors would rationally want to engage in noise trading. The goal of this paper is to provide such an explanation for one type of investor, managers of investment funds. As shown here, the incentive for a manager to engage in noise trading arises because of the positive signal that the level of the manager's trading provides about his or her ability to collect private information concerning current and potential investments. If the manager's compensation is directly related to investors' perceptions of his or her ability, the manager will then trade more frequently than is justified on the basis of his or her private information. In addition to providing this explanation for noise trading, the results of this analysis may also be useful for further empirical exploration of the relation between investment fund portfolio turnover and subsequent performance.
The Total Cost of Transactions on the NYSE
Authors: BERKOWITZ STEPHEN A. , LOGUE DENNIS E. , NOSER EUGENE A.
Published: April 2012

This paper develops a measure of execution costs (market impact) of transactions on the NYSE. The measure is the volume‐weighted average price over the trading day. It yields results that are less biased than measures that use single prices, such as closes. The paper then applies this measure to a data set containing more than 14,000 actual trades. We show that total transaction costs, commission plus market impact costs, average twenty‐three basis points of principal value for our sample. Commission costs, averaging eighteen basis points, are considerably higher than execution costs, which average five basis points. They vary slightly across brokers and significantly across money managers. Though brokers do not incur consistently high or low transaction costs, money managers experience persistently high or lost costs. Finally, the paper explores the possible tradeoff between commission expenditures and market impact costs. Paying higher commissions does not yield commensurately lower execution costs, even after adjusting for trade difficulty. We cannot determine whether other valuable brokerage services are being purchased with higher commission payments or whether some money managers really are inefficient consumers of brokerage trading services.
Closed‐End Fund Shares' Abnormal Returns and the Information Content of Discounts and Premiums
Authors: BRAUER GREGGORY A.
Published: April 2012

Closed‐end funds' discounts contain information in the sense that they can be used to construct portfolios that earn returns exceeding those predicted by the two‐factor capital asset pricing model. The precise nature of the information contained in a discount is not clear, however. This paper provides evidence that the information contained in a discount is an incomplete prediction of the fund's likelihood of being open‐ended profitably.
The January Effect and Aggregate Insider Trading
Authors: SEYHUN H. NEJAT
Published: April 2012

This study investigates the seasonal pattern of aggregate insider trading to help distinguish between two competing explanations for the seasonal pattern of security returns. The first potential explanation examined is that the January effect arises from predictable changes in turn‐of‐the‐year demand for securities. The second potential explanation examined is that the January effect represents compensation for the higher risk of trading against informed traders at the turn of the year.
Jump‐Diffusion Processes and the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Authors: AHN CHANG MO , THOMPSON HOWARD E.
Published: April 2012

The authors investigate the term structure of interest rates when the underlying state variables and production technologies follow the jump‐diffusion processes. Even in some cases where the traditional expectations theory about the term structure is consistent with general equilibrium under diffusion processes, the traditional theory is not consistent under jump‐diffusion processes. It is shown that bond prices are strictly higher under jump risks than otherwise and that consumers with logarithmic utility functions will develop hedge portfolios in the presence of jump diffusion.
Exchange Rate Uncertainty, Forward Contracts, and International Portfolio Selection
Authors: EUN CHEOL S. , RESNICK BRUCE G.
Published: April 2012

In this paper, ex ante efficient portfolio selection strategies are developed to realize potential gains from international diversification under flexible exchange rates. It is shown that exchange rate uncertainty is a largely nondiversifiable factor adversely affecting the performance of international portfolios. Therefore, it is essential to effectively control exchange rate volatility. For that purpose, two methods of exchange risk reduction are simultaneously employed: multicurrency diversification and hedging via forward exchange contracts. The empirical findings show that international portfolio selection strategies designed to control both estimation and exchange risks almost consistently outperform the U.S. domestic portfolio in out‐of‐sample periods.
The October 1979 Change in the U.S. Monetary Regime: Its Impact on the Forecastability of Canadian Interest Rates
Authors: PESANDO JAMES E. , PLOURDE ANDRÉ
Published: April 2012

Subsequent to the October 1979 shift in monetary policy in the United States, interest rates in North America not only reached unprecedented levels but also exhibited unprecedented volatility. Using Canadian data, the authors show that anticipated quarterly changes in long‐term rates associated with the rational‐expectations model have remained small during this post‐shift period. The authors examine three sets of recorded forecasts of long‐term interest rates in Canada and note their failure to improve upon the no‐change prediction. The “perverse” relationship between the slope of the yield curve and the subsequent movement in long‐term rates exists in the Canadian data but is of only modest value in a forecasting context. The excess returns on long‐term bonds implicit in the recorded forecasts of the level of interest rates vary sharply, yet there is little evidence that forecasters have identified a predictable component of time‐varying term premia.
Risk‐Based Premiums for Insurance Guaranty Funds
Authors: CUMMINS J. DAVID
Published: April 2012

Insurance guaranty funds have been adopted in all states to compensate policyholders for losses resulting from insurance company insolvencies. The guaranty funds charge flat premium rates, usually a percentage of premiums. Flat premiums can induce insurers to adopt high‐risk strategies, a problem that can be avoided through the use of risk‐based premiums. This article develops risk‐based premium formulas for three cases: a) an ongoing insurer with stochastic assets and liabilities, b) an ongoing insurer also subject to jumps in liabilities (catastrophes), and c) a policy cohort, where claims eventually run off to zero. Premium estimates are provided and compared with actual guaranty fund assessment rates.
An Asset‐Pricing Theory Unifying the CAPM and APT
Authors: WEI K. C. JOHN
Published: April 2012

This study shows that the competitive‐equilibrium version of the APT may be extended to develop an exact model if idiosyncratic risks obey the Ross separating distribution. The results indicate that one only need add the market portfolio as an extra factor to the factor model in order to obtain an exact asset‐pricing relation. Thus, this study presents an extension and integration of the CAPM and APT. The “empirical” APT is also generalized to allow for some factors to be omitted from the econometric model employed to test the theory. The developed model is extremely robust and may be reduced to the CAPM or expanded to approximate Ross's APT depending upon the number of omitted factors. Further, the importance of the market portfolio is shown to be a monotonic increasing function of the number of omitted factors. Finally, the study demonstrates that, in a finite economy, the pricing‐error bound of the Ross APT in a correlated‐residuals factor structure is an increasing function of the absolute value of market‐residual beta, rather than the weight of the asset in the market portfolio as is the case of uncorrelated factor residuals. However, under the normality assumption, the pricing error becomes an extra component related to the market‐portfolio factor, and the exact asset‐pricing relation is once again obtained.
The Interrelation of Stock and Options Market Trading‐Volume Data
Authors: ANTHONY JOSEPH H.
Published: April 2012

This research empirically investigates the relation between common stock and call option trading volumes. The paper hyothesizes and tests a sequential flow of information between the stock and option markets. If information trading for CBOE‐listed firms is predominantly accomplished through option trading, then existing research methodologies may be biased against finding any significant economic consequences in those instances where option listing is an important variable. Results indicate that trading in call options leads trading in the underlying shares, with a one‐day lag.
Testing Rationality in the Point Spread Betting Market
Authors: GANDAR JOHN , ZUBER RICHARD , O'BRIEN THOMAS , RUSSO BEN
Published: April 2012

This paper presents empirical tests of market rationality using data from the point spread betting market on National Football League games. Data from this market avoid many common pitfalls of tests of rationality in conventional financial markets. The authors test for rationality with two types of tests, statistical and economic. Results of the tests reveal that the statistical tests cannot reject market rationality while the economic tests do reject market rationality.
Exact Arbitrage Pricing and the Minimum‐Variance Frontier
Authors: TIEMANN JONATHAN
Published: April 2012

The author examines the relationship between the Arbitrage Pricing Theory of Ross and mean‐variance analysis. In particular, conditions are derived on the vector of the factor risk premia that are equivalent to the existence of a strictly positively weighted portfolio on the minimum‐variance frontier. Also, a sufficient condition is given under which the existence of a positive minimum‐variance portfolio of all the assets in the economy will imply the existence of a positive minimum‐variance portfolio on a subset. This means that rejection of the hypothesis of the existence of a positive minimum‐variance portfolio on a subset satisfying this condition implies rejection for the whole set.
Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?
Authors: ROSE ANDREW K.
Published: April 2012

Univariate time‐series models for consumption, nominal interest rates, and prices each appear to have a single unit root before 1979. If nominal interest rates have a unit root but inflation and inflation forecast errors do not, then ex ante real interest rates have a unit root and are therefore nonstationary. This deduction does not depend on the properties of the unobservable ex post observed real return, which combines the ex ante real interest rate and inflation‐forecasting errors. The unit‐root characteristic of real interest rates is puzzling from at least two perspectives: many models imply that the growth rate of consumption and the real interest rate should have similar time‐series characteristics; also, nominal returns for other assets (e.g., stocks and bonds) appear to have different times‐series properties from those of treasury bills.
Vendor Financing
Authors: BRENNAN MICHAEL J. , MAKSIMOVICs VOJISLAV , ZECHNER JOSEF
Published: April 2012

This paper shows that, even in the presence of a perfectly competitive banking industry, it is optimal for firms with market power to engage in vendor financing if credit customers have lower reservation prices than cash customers or if adverse selection makes it infeasible to write credit contracts that separate customers according to their credit risk. We analyze how the advantage of vendor financing depends on the relative size of the cash and credit markets, the heterogeneity of credit customers, and the number of firms in the industry.
Canada's Dual Class Shares: Further Evidence on the Market Value of Cash Dividends
Authors: BAILEY WARREN
Published: April 2012

The Canada Income Tax Act of 1971 permitted Canadian corporations to create two classes of equity, one paying ordinary cash income and the other paying capital gains income. Cash‐paying shares have often sold at a premium. Empirical results indicate that the premium is largely explained by the relative value of the dividends paid and by costs imposed on investors by stock dividend payment and share conversion procedures. Premiums for a few firms also reflect the relative liquidity of the two classes of shares. No evidence exists that investors prefer cash income to equal amounts of capital gains.
The Effect of Corporate Multinationalism on Shareholders' Wealth: Evidence from International Acquisitions
Authors: DOUKAS JOHN , TRAVLOS NICKOLAOS G.
Published: April 2012

This study presents direct evidence on the effect of international acquisitions on stock prices of U.S. bidding firms. Shareholders of MNCs not operating in the target firm's country experience significant positive abnormal returns at the announcement of international acquisitions. Shareholders of U.S. firms expanding internationally for the first time experience insignificant positive abnormal returns, while shareholders of MNCs operating already in the target firm's country experience insignificant negative abnormal returns. The abnormal returns are larger when firms expand into new industry and geographic markets—especially those less developed than the U.S. economy. The evidence is consistent with the theory of corporate multinationalism, predicting an increase in the firm's market value from the expansion of its existing multinational network.
Underpricing of Newly Issued Bonds: Evidence from the Swiss Capital Market
Authors: WASSERFALLEN WALTER , WYDLER DANIEL
Published: April 2012

The pricing of newly issued bonds on the Swiss capital market is investigated over the years 1980–1982. The results reveal a slight underpricing of new bonds at the issue date that is roughly equal to the difference in transactions costs between the markets for new and seasoned bonds. Underpricing is no longer observed when the new bonds start to be traded on the stock exchange, that is, after about two days. Tests of several hypotheses show that unexpected changes in interest rates over the offering period explain part of the underpricing.
Investing in Bankrupt Firms
Authors: MORSE DALE , SHAW WAYNE
Published: April 2012

We examine the investment characteristics of firms electing to enter bankruptcy, between 1973 and 1982. Comparisons are made before and after the Bankruptcy Reform Act of 1978. Our results indicate that the 1978 Act had no significant impact on bankruptcy decisions or resolutions for actively traded firms. Trading in bankrupt firms' securities is becoming more common, but no abnormal returns appear to be available. Systematic risk does not change significantly with the filing of bankruptcy, but there is a significant increase in return variance. The financial markets also react to various announcements of stages in the reorganization process.
The Domino Effect and the Supervision of the Banking System
Authors: PAROUSH JACOB
Published: April 2012

The paper models the domino effect and defines a measurement for the necessity of banking supervision. The effect of several factors, such as the desired stability of the banking system, its size, the amount of negative externalities that are considered by banks, and supervisory costs, on the necessity of supervision are studied. For instance, it was found that, under certain circumstances, supervision becomes less essential if the number of banks increases. The paper has also emphasized that objective difficulties in the supervision of banks, by simply imposing restrictions on their activities, are intrinsic to the operation of the banks themselves. The paper provides some insight into the current debate as to the necessity or redundancy of supervision and regulation.
A Tax‐Induced Clientele for Index‐Linked Corporate Bonds
Authors: HOCHMAN SHALOM , PALMON ODED
Published: April 2012

This paper analyzes the circumstances under which tax considerations favor or disfavor the use of index‐linked corporate bonds. Using a model similar to Miller's, investors' choices of assets depend on their tax preferences for interest income versus capital gains and their preferences for the timing of returns. It is concluded that the absence of index‐linked bonds in the U.S. cannot be attributed solely to tax reasons. However, following the 1986 Tax Reform Act, the tax code is expected to disfavor the use of index‐linked bonds.
Compensation and Incentives: Practice vs. Theory
Authors: BAKER GEORGE P. , JENSEN MICHAEL C. , MURPHY KEVIN J.
Published: April 2012

A thorough understanding of internal incentive structures is critical to developing a viable theory of the firm, since these incentives determine to a large extent how individuals inside an organization behave. Many common features of organizational incentive systems are not easily explained by traditional economic theory—including egalitarian pay systems in which compensation is largely independent of performance, the overwhelming use of promotion‐based incentive systems, the absence of up‐front fees for jobs and effective bonding contracts, and the general reluctance of employers to fire, penalize, or give poor performance evaluations to employees. Typical explanations for these practices offered by behaviorists and practitioners are distinctly uneconomic—focusing on notions such as fairness, equity, morale, trust, social responsibility, and culture. The challenge to economists is to provide viable economic explanations for these practices or to integrate these alternative notions into the traditional economic model.
Bubbles, Fads and Stock Price Volatility Tests: A Partial Evaluation
Authors: WEST KENNETH D.
Published: April 2012

This is a summary and interpretation of some of the literature on stock price volatility that was stimulated by Leroy and Porter [28] and Shiller [40]. It appears that neither small‐sample bias, rational bubbles nor some standard models for expected returns adequately explain stock price volatility. This suggests a role for some nonstandard models for expected returns. One possibility is a “fads” model in which noise trading by naive investors is important. At present, however, there is little direct evidence that such fads play a significant role in stock price determination.
The Buying and Selling Behavior of Individual Investors at the Turn of the Year
Authors: RITTER JAY R.
Published: April 2012

The average returns on low‐capitalization stocks are unusually high relative to those on large‐capitalization stocks in early January, a phenomenon known as the turn‐of‐the‐year effect. This paper finds that the ratio of stock purchases to sales by individual investors displays a seasonal pattern, with individuals having a below‐normal buy/sell ratio in late December and an above‐normal ratio in early January. Year‐to‐year variation in the early January buy/sell ratio explains forty‐six percent of the year‐to‐year variation in the turn‐of‐the‐year effect during 1971–1985.
The Winner's Curse and Bidder Competition in Acquisitions: Evidence from Failed Bank Auctions
Authors: GILIBERTO S. MICHAEL , VARAIYA NIKHIL P.
Published: April 2012

This study examines the effect of bidder competition in acquisitions. We use predictions from auction theory to test whether acquirers of failed banks overpay (the “winner's curse”) when bidding in FDIC sealed‐bid purchase and assumption (P&A) transactions (auctions). The empirical results indicate that winning bids tend to increase as the number of competitors increases, as predicted by theory. We also find that bid levels of all bidders increase with increased competition, which is consistent with bidders' failing to adjust for the winner's curse in a common value auction setting. However, additional tests using winning bids only are consistent with both a common value and a private values model, so this result should be interpreted with caution.
The Quality Option and Timing Option in Futures Contracts
Authors: BOYLE PHELIM P.
Published: April 2012

Often futures contracts contain quality options whereby the short position has the choice of delivering one of an acceptable set of assets. We explore the implications of the quality option on the futures price. We develop a method for pricing the quality option for the general case ofndeliverable assets and provide numerical illustrations of its significance. Even when the asset prices are very highly correlated, this option can have nontrivial value, especially when there is a large number of deliverable assets. We analyze the impact of the timing option and its interaction with the quality option. A procedure is developed for valuing the timing option in the presence of the quality option, and some numerical estimates are obtained.
Temporal Aggregation and the Continuous‐Time Capital Asset Pricing Model
Authors: LONGSTAFF FRANCIS A.
Published: April 2012

We examine how the empirical implications of the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) are affected by the length of the period over which returns are measured. We show that the continuous‐time CAPM becomes a multifactor model when the asset pricing relation is aggregated temporally. We use Hansen's Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach to test the continuous‐time CAPM at an unconditional level using size portfolio returns. The results indicate that the continuous‐time CAPM cannot be rejected. In contrast, the discrete‐time CAPM is easily rejected by the tests. These results have a number of important implications for the interpretation of tests of the CAPM which have appeared in the literature.
Management Buyouts of Divisions and Shareholder Wealth
Authors: HITE GAILEN L. , VETSUYPENS MICHAEL R.
Published: April 2012

This paper examines the wealth effects to parent company shareholders around the announcement of divisional management buyouts. Despite the relative absence of “arm's‐length” bargaining between buyer and seller, there is no evidence that divisional management buyouts result in reductions in parent company share prices. Instead, small but statistically significant wealth gains are found during the two‐day period surrounding the buyout announcement. This evidence suggests that divisional buyouts reallocate ownership of corporate assets to higher valued uses and that parent company stockholders share in the expected benefits of this change in ownership structure.
Economic Significance of Predictable Variations in Stock Index Returns
Authors: BREEN WILLIAM , GLOSTEN LAWRENCE R. , JAGANNATHAN RAVI
Published: April 2012

Knowledge of the one‐month interest rate is useful in forecasting the sign as well as the variance of the excess return on stocks. The services of a portfolio manager who makes use of the forecasting model to shift funds between bills and stocks would be worth an annual management fee of 2% of the value of the assets managed. During 1954:4 to 1986:12, the variance of monthly returns on the managed portfolio was about 60% of the variance of the returns on the value weighted index, whereas the average return was two basis points higher.
Options Arbitrage in Imperfect Markets
Authors: FIGLEWSKI STEPHEN
Published: April 2012

Option valuation models are based on an arbitrage strategy—hedging the option against the underlying asset and rebalancing continuously until expiration—that is only possible in a frictionless market. This paper simulates the impact of market imperfections and other problems with the “standard” arbitrage trade, including uncertain volatility, transactions costs, indivisibilities, and rebalancing only at discrete intervals. We find that, in an actual market such as that for stock index options, the standard arbitrage is exposed to such large risk and transactions costs that it can only establish very wide bounds on equilibrium options prices. This has important implications for price determination in options markets, as well as for testing of valuation models.
Optimal Bank Reorganization Policies and the Pricing of Federal Deposit Insurance
Authors: ACHARYA SANKARSHAN , DREYFUS JEAN‐FRANCOIS
Published: April 2012

Optimal dynamic regulatory policies for closing ailing banks and for deposit insurance premia are derived as functions of the rate of flow of bank deposits, and interest rate on deposits, the economy's risk‐free interest rate, and the regulators' bank audit/administration costs. Under competitive conditions, the threshold assets‐to‐deposits ratio below which a bank should be optimally closed is shown to be greater than or equal to one. Optimal deposit insurance premia and probabilities of bank closure are shown to be nondecreasing in the bank's risk on investment and nonincreasing in the bank's current assets‐to‐deposits ratio.
Some Empirical Estimates of the Risk Structure of Interest Rates
Authors: SARIG ODED , WARGA ARTHUR
Published: April 2012

This paper investigates the risk structure of interest rates using pure discount bonds. The most striking feature of our estimates of default‐risk premia is the resemblance of their time profile to the theoretical time profile obtained by Merton (1974).
Stock Splits, Volatility Increases, and Implied Volatilities
Authors: SHEIKH AAMIR M.
Published: April 2012

A test of the efficiency of the Chicago Board Options Exchange, relative to post‐split increases in the volatility of common stocks, is presented. The Black‐Scholes and Roll option pricing formulas are used to examine the behavior of implied standard deviations (ISDs) around split announcement and ex‐dates. Comparisons with a control group of stocks find no relative increase in ISDs of stocks announcing splits. However, a relative increase is detected at the ex‐date. Therefore, the joint hypothesis that 1) the Black‐Scholes and Roll formulas are true and 2) the CBOE is efficient can be rejected.
The Equilibrium Valuation of Risky Discrete Cash Flows in Continuous Time
Authors: SHIMKO DAVID C.
Published: April 2012

This paper values a contingent claim to discrete stochastic cash flows generated by a Poisson arrival process with a randomly varying intensity parameter. In the most general case, both the size and the arrival intensity of cash flows may correlate wih state variables in a continuous time economy. Assuming the conditions of an intertemporal capital aset pricing model, solutions for the value of the contingent claim can be found using various techniques. The paper suggests immediate applications to the valuation of insurance contracts, the decision to build a firm with unknown future investment opportunities, and the pricing of mortgage‐backed securities.
Does the Stock Market Overreact to Corporate Earnings Information?
Authors: ZAROWIN PAUL
Published: April 2012

This paper tests whether the stock market overreacts to extreme earnings, by examining firms' stock returns over the 36 months subsequent to extreme earnings years. While the poorest earners do outperform the best earners, the poorest earners are also significantly smaller than the best earners. When poor earners are matched with good earners of equal size, there is little evidence of differential performance. This suggests that size, and not investor overreaction to earnings, is responsible for the “overreaction” phenomenon, the tendency for prior period losers to outperform prior period winners in the subsequent period.
A Re‐Examination of Shareholder Wealth Effects of Calls of Convertible Preferred Stock
Authors: MAIS ERIC L. , MOORE WILLIAM T. , ROGERS RONALD C.
Published: April 2012

Common stock price reactions to announcements of 67 calls of in‐the‐money convertible preferred stocks are examined, and a significant average abnormal return of −1.6 percent is documented. The finding is robust to the choice of estimation period and the assumed return‐generating process. Annual dividend obligations for the called preferred issues in the sample typically are greater than the dividends for the common shares into which they are converted, and announcement‐period abnormal returns are negatively correlated with changes in dividends. Moreover, calls that result in dilution of voting rights appear to have greater adverse valuation effects than calls that do not alter voting rights concentration.
The Size and Incidence of the Losses from Noise Trading
Authors: DE LONG J. BRADFORD , SHLEIFER ANDREI , SUMMERS LAWRENCE H. , WALDMANN ROBERT J.
Published: April 2012

Recent empirical research has identified a significant amount of volatility in stock prices that cannot easily be explained by changes in fundamentals; one interpretation is that asset prices respond not only to news but also to irrational “noise trading.” We assess the welfare effects and incidence of such noice trading using an overlapping‐generations model that gives investors short horizons. We find that the additional risk generated by noise trading can reduce the capital stock and consumption of the economy, and we show that part of that cost may be borne by rational investors. We conclude that the welfare costs of noise trading may be large if the magnitude of noise in aggregate stock prices is as large as suggested by some of the recent empirical litrature on the excess volatility of the market.
Asset Pricing in Partially Segmented Markets: Evidence from the Finnish Market
Authors: HIETALA PEKKA T.
Published: April 2012

This paper analyzes asset pricing in a partially segmented market where citizens of a small country are allowed to hold only their domestic securities, whereas the rest of the investors (“foreigners”) are essentially allowed to hold all securities. In this market setting it may occur that the citizens of the small country are willing to pay less for their domestic securities than are the foreign investors. The paper derives equilibrium required rates of return for different investors in this market setting which perfectly occurred in Finland and tests this equilibrium model using data from the Finnish stock market. Empirical results are consistent with the hypotheses derived from the model.
Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends
Authors: SHILLER ROBERT J.
Published: April 2012

The comovements in real stock prices between the U.K. and the U.S. appear to be too large to be accounted for in terms of the comovements of real dividends between the countries even after consideration of the possibility of information pooling. When consideration is made of the comovements of real interest rates between the countries, there is weaker evidence of excess comovement of price.
An Empirical Investigation of U.S. Firms in Reorganization
Authors: FRANKS JULIAN R. , TOROUS WALTER N.
Published: April 2012

The purpose of this paper is to understand the institutional features of Chapter 11 from an empirical examination of thirty firms that have emerged from reorganization. We find the recontracting framework of Chapter 11 to be complex, lengthy, and costly. Violations of absolute priority in favor of stockholders are frequently encountered. These deviations may result from the bargaining process of Chapter 11 or from a recontracting process between creditors and stockholders which recognizes the ability of stockholder‐oriented management to preserve firm value. An example of such recontracting addresses Myers' underinvestment problem. An investigation of the effects of Chapter 11 on the pricing of risky debt is also provided.
New Hope for the Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Authors: FROOT KENNETH A.
Published: April 2012

Survey data on interest rate expectations permit separate testing of the two alternative hypotheses in traditional term structure tests: that the expectations hypothesis fails, and that expected future interest rates are ex post inefficient forecasts. We find that the source of the spread's poor predictions of future interest rates varies with maturity. At short maturities the expectations hypothesis fails. At long maturities, however, changes in the yield curve reflect changes in expected future rates one‐for‐one, an implication of the expectations hypothesis. This result confirms earlier findings that long rates underreact to short rates, but now it cannot be attributed to term premia.
Valuing Commercial Mortgages: An Empirical Investigation of the Contingent‐Claims Approach to Pricing Risky Debt
Authors: TITMAN SHERIDAN , TOROUS WALTER
Published: April 2012

This paper empirically investigates a contingent‐claims model of commercial mortgage pricing. We find that the magnitude of the observed default premia for a sample of nonprepayable fixed rate bullet mortgages can be explained by the contingent‐claims model. In addition, the model explains a significant proportion of the period‐to‐period changes in the default premia. However, given an assumed negative correlation between building value changes and interest rate changes, the model's risk structure tends to increase less steeply with increasing maturity than the observed risk structure.
The Informational Content of Initial Public Offerings
Authors: GALE IAN , STIGLITZ JOSEPH E.
Published: April 2012

The ability of capital markets to distinguish firms of different value by the size of their initial equity offerings is attenuated when insiders can sell equity more than once. A model is developed in which there is price risk from holding equity between periods. When the uncertainty is small, there must be pooling in the first period. When uncertainty is large, the pooling equilibria dominate the separating equilibrium.
The Effects of Beta, Bid‐Ask Spread, Residual Risk, and Size on Stock Returns
Authors: AMIHUD YAKOV , MENDELSON HAIM
Published: April 2012

Merton's [26] recent extension of the CAPM proposed that asset returns are an increasing function of their beta risk, residual risk, and size and a decreasing function of the public availability of information about them. Associating the latter with asset liquidity and following Amihud and Mendelson's [2] proposition that asset returns increase with their illiquidity (measured by the bid‐ask spread), we jointly estimate the effects of these four factors on stock returns.
The Price Effect of Option Introduction
Authors: CONRAD JENNIFER
Published: April 2012

This paper examines the price effect of option introduction from 1974 to 1980. The introduction of individual options causes a permanent price increase in the underlying security, beginning approximately three days before introduction. The price effect appears to be associated with introduction, and not announcement, throughout the sample period. Excess returns volatility declines with option introduction. Systematic risk is unchanged. There is a positive relation between the price increase and a measure of activity in the options market.
Initial Public Offerings and Underwriter Reputation
Authors: CARTER RICHARD , MANASTER STEVEN
Published: April 2012

This paper examined the returns earned by subscribing to initial public offerings of equity (IPOs). Rock (1986) suggests that IPO returns are required by uninformed investors as compensation for the risk of trading against superior information. We show that IPOs with more informed investor capital require higher returns. The marketing underwriter's reputation reveals the expected level of “informed” activity. Prestigious underwriters are associated with lower risk offerings. With less risk there is less incentive to acquire information and fewer informed investors. Consequently, prestigious underwriters are associated with IPOs that have lower returns.
Predicting Stock Returns in an Efficient Market
Authors: BALVERS RONALD J. , COSIMANO THOMAS F. , MCDONALD BILL
Published: April 2012

An intertemporal general equilibrium model relates financial asset returns to movements in aggregate output. The model is a standard neoclassical growth model with serial correlation in aggregate output. Changes in aggregate output lead to attempts by agents to smooth consumption, which affects the required rate of return on financial assets. Since aggregate output is serially correlated and hence predictable, the theory suggests that stock returns can be predicted based on rational forecasts of output. The empirical results confirm that stock returns are a predictable function of aggregate output and also support the accompanying implications of the model.
Heteroskedasticity in Stock Returns
Authors: SCHWERT G. WILLIAM , SEGUIN PAUL J.
Published: April 2012

We use predictions of aggregate stock return variances from daily data to estimate time‐varying monthly variances for size‐ranked portfolios. We propose and estimate a single factor model of heteroskedasticity for portfolio returns. This model implies time‐varying betas. Implications of heteroskedasticity and time‐varying betas for tests of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) are then documented. Accounting for heteroskedasticity increases the evidence that risk‐adjusted returns are related to firm size. We also estimate a constant correlation model. Portfolio volatilities predicted by this model are similar to those predicted by more complex multivariate generalized‐autoregressive‐conditional‐heteroskedasticity (GARCH) procedures.
The Behavior of Eurocurrency Returns Across Different Holding Periods and Monetary Regimes
Authors: LEWIS KAREN K.
Published: April 2012

Recent empirical studies of the risk premium across foreign exchange and other asset markets such as equity and longer term bonds have found conflicting evidence about the latent variable model restrictions of the consumption‐based intertemporal capital asset pricing model. While studies using data for holding periods of one month or less generally reject the model, evidence using three‐month holding periods indicates that the model cannot be rejected when including the returns on long relative to short deposit rates. This paper investigates the sources of differences in results using returns on foreign exchange and Eurocurrency deposits at three different maturities.
Turn‐of‐Month Evaluations of Liquid Profits and Stock Returns: A Common Explanation for the Monthly and January Effects
Authors: OGDEN JOSEPH P.
Published: April 2012

This paper presents and tests a hypothesis that the standardization of payments in the United States at the turn of each calendar month generally induces a surge in stock returns at the turn of each calendar month. The hypothesis also asserts that returns generally will be greater following the month of December and will vary inversely with the stringency of monetary policy. Empirical results using stock index returns for 1969–1986 support the hypothesis. This analysis provides an explanation for the previously documented monthly effect in stock returns and a partial explanation for the January effect.