Post-marketing active surveillance of Guillan Barré Syndrome following vaccination with anti-COVID-19 vaccines in persons aged ≥12 years in Italy: a multi-database self-controlled case series study
Authors: Morciano Cristina , Alegiani Stefania Spila , Ippoliti Francesca Menniti , Belleudi Valeria , Trifirò Gianluca , Zanoni Giovanna , Puccini Aurora , Sapigni Ester , Mores Nadia , Leoni Olivia , Monaco Giuseppe , Clagnan Elena , Zappetti Cristina , Bovo Emanuela , Da Cas Roberto , Massari Marco 
Published: January 2023

Background

Case reports of Guillain Barrè syndrome (GBS) following the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines administration have been reported. This study investigated the risk of GBS after vaccination with anti-COVID-19 vaccines (BNT162b2/Tozinameran; mRNA-1273/Elasomeran, ChAdOx1-S and Ad26.COV2-S) in the population aged ≥12 years in Italy.

Methods

We conducted a self-controlled case series study (SCCS) using national data on COVID-19 vaccination linked to emergency care/hospital discharge databases. The outcome was the first diagnosis of GBS between 27 December 2020 and 30 September 2021.

Exposure risk period were days 0 (vaccination day) through 42 days following each of the 2 vaccine doses. The remaining periods were considered as non at risk (baseline) period.

The SCCS model, adapted to event-dependent exposures, was fitted using unbiased estimating equations to estimate relative incidences (RIs) and excess of cases (EC) per 100,000 vaccinated by dose and vaccine product. Calendar period was included as time-varying confounder in the model.

Results

The study included 15,986,009 persons who received at least one dose of Covid-19 vaccine. During the 42-day risk interval there were a total of 67 cases of GBS after the first dose and 41 cases after the second dose. In the 42-day risk interval, increased risks were observed after the administration of first dose (RI=6.83; 95% CI 2.14-21.85) and second dose (RI=7.41; 95% CI 2.35-23.38) for mRNA-1273 vaccine, corresponding to 0.4 and 0.3 EC per 100,000 vaccinated, respectively. Increased risk was also observed after the first dose of ChAdOx1-S vaccine (RI=6.52; 95% CI 2.88-14.77), corresponding to 1.0 EC per 100,000 vaccinated. There was no evidence of increased risk of GBS after vaccination with BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2-S vaccines.

In the subgroup analysis by sex an increased risk of GBS was observed among both males and females after mRNA-1273 vaccine. in males an increased risk was observed after the first dose, with a borderline significance (RI=5.26; 95% CI 0.94-29.42; p=0.06) and the second dose (RI=16.50; 95% CI 3.01-90.56) and in females after the first dose (RI=13.44; 95% CI 2.83-63.80). There was also evidence of an increased risk after a first dose of ChAdOx1-S in males (RI=4.94; 95% CI 1.84-13.28) and females (RI=7.14; 95% CI 1.94-26.19).

In the subgroup analysis by age, there was evidence of an increased risk of GBS with mRNA-1273 vaccine among those aged ≥60 years after the first (RI=8.03; 95% CI 2.08-31.03) and second dose (RI=7.71; 95% CI 2.38-24.97). After a first dose of ChAdOx1-S there was evidence of an increased risk of GBS in those aged 40-59 (RI=4.50; 95% CI 1.37-14.79) and in those aged ≥60 years (RI=6.84; 95% CI 2.56-18.28). There was no evidence of increased risk of GBS after vaccination with BNT162b2 and Ad26.COV2-S vaccines in the subgroup analysis by age and sex.

Study limitations include that the outcome was not validated through review of clinical records, the possibility of time-dependent residual confounding and the imprecision of the obtained estimates in the subgroup analysis due to the very low number of events.

Conclusions

It is important the continuous monitoring of the suspected adverse events of the COVID-19 vaccines as key component of any vaccination program. Results from this large SCCS study showed an increased risk of GBS after first and second dose of mRNA-1273 and first dose of ChAdOx1-S. However, these findings were compatible with a small number of EC. Our data are reassuring regarding BNT162b and Ad26.COV2-S vaccines with respect to GBS outcome. No increased risk of GBS was detected following each of BNT162b vaccine dose nor any increased risk after Ad26.COV2-S vaccine dose.