bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A Bronze Age gold torc from Sudbrook, Lincs.
Authors: Varndell Gillian
Published: March 2003

An important find of a Bronze Age gold bar‐torc from Sudbrook, Lincs. is described. Study of its closer parallels suggests that it belongs to a sub‐group of the much larger family of bar‐torcs known from Britain, Ireland and France during the Middle to later Bronze Age.
An Early Prehistoric Shaft on Cranborne Chase
Authors: Green Martin , Allen Michael J.
Published: March 2003

Continuing field work on Cranborne Chase has examined a unique shaft in Fir Tree Field, Down Farm in the parish of Gussage St Michael. Although shafts are known in prehistoric contexts elsewhere in England in the form of Neolithic flint mines, ritual shafts and even Bronze Age wells (Wilsford), the shaft reported here is particularly early and remains, at present, unexplained. Excavation and augering has revealed a shaft over 25 m deep containing evidence of Mesolithic to Beaker activity.
Another Look at Lerna: An EH IIB Trading Post?
Authors: Weingarten Judith
Published: March 2003

The Early Helladic IIB sealings from Lerna have rarely been considered as functional documents even though they are often called as evidence for EH II economic complexity, for elite control of resources or even for ‘central place’ redistribution. Close analysis of the sealings, however, casts doubt on whether the documents support these economic or social interpretations, seeming rather to point to the grafting of a foreign system of resource management onto a less developed society. After examining the specific functions of the sealings —‘who did what?’— we consider their implications for social organization. This evidence is then linked to the wider picture: a whole range of new sealing practices as well as the striking innovations in architecture and construction which appear at much the same time. We conclude that these developments are largely due to the arrival of foreign (probably Anatolian) traders at Lerna early in EH IIB.
Crossing the border: contrasting styles of rock art in the prehistory of north‐west Iberia
Authors: Bradley Richard , Valcarce Ramón Fábregas
Published: March 2003

Rock art can be regarded as a specialised form of material culture, and at the regional scale it may have exhibited as much diversity as monuments and portable artefacts. Its character might also have changed in relation to different practices and different ways of perceiving and using the landscape. Such contrasts can be identified in the prehistoric rock art found on either side of the modern border between Portugal and Spain and may be related to much broader currents in Iberian archaeology, extending from the Atlantic to the West Mediterranean.
Iron Age Coinage on the Isle of Wight
Authors: Wellington Imogen
Published: March 2003

This paper presents a discussion and catalogue of the Iron Age coins found on the Isle of Wight which have been recorded, or are extant, on the island. These coins show a wide variety of links with the mainland and Continental Europe. Many of the coins are of unusual or unique types, suggesting a political division between the Isle of Wight and recognized major tribal groups for at least some of the Late Iron Age. Links are indicated with the intermediary Hampshire group introduced by Sellwood (1984). Strong links are shown with the Durotriges group to the west, and to a lesser degree with the Atrebates/Regni group to the east of the island. There are also preliminary indications of political and social centralization on the island for the first time, from numismatic finds.
Doorway Orientation, Settlement Planning and Cosmology in Ancient Israel During Iron Age II
Authors: Faust Avraham
Published: March 2003

An examination of Iron Age buildings and settlements in ancient Israel indicates that a large number of them were oriented toward the east, while the west was extremely under‐represented. An examination of various climatic and functional considerations does not seem to explain the phenomenon. Many ethnographic studies, however, have demonstrated the strong influence that cosmological principles can have on the planning of buildings and settlements, and that in many cases the east is preferred. In the present study, however, we have additional information. The common Biblical Hebrew word for east is qedma (forward), while the west is ahora(backward). Additional words for these directions indicate that the east had a good connotation while the west had a bad one. Thus, the archaeological pattern, along with language and texts (which are used as a substitute for human informants), seem to give an important insight into some of the cosmological principles of the ancient Israelites.
The Isle of Portland: An Iron Age Port‐of‐trade
Authors: Taylor John
Published: March 2003

The Isle of Portland (Dorset, England) was part of a trading system that involved the circulation of goods in and across the English Channel during the first century BC. This paper assesses the suitability of Portland as an Iron Age port‐of‐trade, focuses on the exotics found there and discusses evidence for its hill‐fort, which was destroyed in the middle of the nineteenth century
The End of Town‐life in Scythia Minor
Authors: Madgearu Alexandru
Published: March 2003

The transition from ‘town‐life’ to ‘life‐in‐town’ defined by several British archaeologists could be applied to 6th‐century Scythia Minor. The economic crisis and the barbarian inroads caused an evolution from towns with a military function toward ruralized settlements, and finally to the extinction of these cities. The ruralization spread step by step over the entire province during the last third of the 6th century and at the beginning of the 7th. The dissolution of town‐life did not always represent conversion to a rural economy. Some settlements preserved for a certain time the functions of the urban economy, but in different conditions. The coastal towns resisted better.
Later Neolithic Woodland and Regeneration in the Long Barrow Ditch Fills of the Avebury Area: The Molluscan Evidence
Authors: Davies Paul , Wolski Colleen
Published: March 2003

Modern data on molluscan migration rates are applied to the sub‐fossil record obtained from Neolithic long barrow ditch fills of the Averbury region. It is demonstrated that it is theoretically possible to consider the maximum and minimum distances of woodland from a number of long barrow sites. The problems and potential of such calculations are addressed.
A Bronze Ingot‐bearer from Cyprus
Authors: Karageorghis Vassos , Papasavvas George
Published: March 2003

Cypriot bronze four‐sided stands represent some of the most impressive metal artefacts produced in the Eastern Mediterranean. As such they offer insight into the high level of the Cypriot bronzework of the Late Bronze Age and witness the advanced skills of the Cypriot metalsmiths. A bronze fragment depicting a man bearing an oxhide ingot, detached from a four‐sided stand and housed in the Royal Ontario Museum, Toronto, Canada, is now added to the corpus of these works. Although unprovenanced, its Cypriot origin is proven by its close typological, technological and stylistic affinities when compared to other Cypriot stands. The discussion of technology, style and chronology of this fragment serves as an opportunity for the evaluation of the stands as a whole and their establishment as products of great technical and artistic virtuosity.
Gender Wage Differentials and Occupational Segregation in Hong Kong, 1981–1996
Authors: Sung Yun‐Wing , Zhang Junsen , Chan Chi‐Shing
Published: March 2003

This paper analyses gender wage differentials and the role of occupational segregation in Hong Kong. It is found that the female–male earnings ratio increased substantially from 0.710 in 1981 to 0.839 in 1996. A decomposition which takes into account occupational differences shows that the gender pay gap is mostly within occupations and most of the intra‐occupation wage gap is unexplained. The gender pay differential due to occupational differences is small; in fact, the overall occupational segregation favours females in Hong Kong.
The Relevance of Logic to Reasoning and Beleif Revision: Harman on ‘Change in View’
Authors: Knorpp William Max
Published: March 2003

In Change of View: Principles of Reasoning, Gilbert Harman argues that (i) all genuine reasoning is a matter of belief revision, and that, since (ii) logic is not “specially relevant” to belief revision, (iii) logic is not specially relevant to reasoning, either. Thus, Harman suggests, what is needed is a “theory of reasoning”–which, incidentally, will be psychologistic, telling us both how we do and how we should reason. I argue that Harman fails to establish the need for such a theory, because (a) reasoning is not always a matter of belief revision, and (b) logic is, in fact, of the utmost relevance to both reasoning and belief revision.
Practical Possibilities
Authors: Adams Ernest W.
Published: March 2003

Abstract: That inferences of the form “If M then S and possibly M, therefore possibly S” are invalid in possible worlds modal logics can be viewed as another fallacy of material implication. However, this paper argues that properly analyzing this and related inferences requires treating the possibility involved as a practical modality. Specifically, ordinary language propositions of the form “It is possible that M” must be understood to mean that there is a non‐negligible probability of M being the case. But this entails reexamining the very idea of logical validity.
Remarks on Wishes and Counterfactuals
Authors: Adams Ernest W.
Published: March 2003

A kind of ‘isomorphism’ is commented on, between the relation of wants to indicative conditionals and the relation of wishes to counter‐factual conditionals. Among other things, it is suggested that Richard Jeffrey’s theory of decision applies equally to degrees of ‘wishedforness’.
The Relevance of Discriminatory Knowledge of Content
Authors: Goldberg Sanford C.
Published: March 2003

Those interested in securing the compatibility of anti‐individualism and introspective knowledge of content (henceforth ‘compatibilists’) typically make a distinction between knowledge of content proper (KC) and discriminatory knowledge of content (DKC). Following Falvey and Owens (1994), most compatibilists allow that anti‐individualism is not compatible with introspective DKC, but maintain that nonetheless anti‐individualism is compatible with introspective KC. Though I have raised doubts about the compatibility of anti‐individualism and introspective KC elsewhere (Goldberg, 1997 and forthcoming), here my aim is to suggest the philosophical relevance of DKC itself. My thesis is that there are cases in which a thinker’s failing to have DKC will affect the justification which she takes herself to have in drawing various inferences in the course of her reasoning, and so will affect that reasoning itself. After presenting illustrative examples and suggesting why anti‐individualists themselves ought to acknowledge this point, I suggest that the examples indicate further work for anti‐individualists: formulating what it takes to have DKC, and substantiating the view (widely held by anti‐individualists) that anti‐individualism’s implication that we (often) lack such knowledge is not to be taken as an important weakness of anti‐individualism itself.
Ontology Downgraded All The Way
Authors: Georgalis Nicholas
Published: March 2003

Willard Quine has recently defended his brand of scientific realism and naturalism (1992). He has expanded his defense (1993, 1996), utilizing observation sentences in their holophrastic guise. He also argues that the latter bear “... significantly on the epistemology of ontology” and provide for the commensurability of theories. I argue that they fail in all these tasks. Further, Quine’s long‐standing commitment to a kind of scientific realism, on the one hand, and his frequent employment of proxy functions and the rejection of transcendental metaphysics, on the other, constitute an untenable position. A consistent Quinean must abandon scientific realism and ontology.
Learning the MI Way: The Effects on Students’ Learning of Using the Theory of Multiple Intelligences
Authors: Hopper Brenda , Hurry Pamela
Published: March 2003

Since the 1988 Education Reform Act, issues of curriculum differentiation, varied learning styles and teaching approaches relevant to the needs of individual pupils have maintained high priority on the education agenda. This article discusses the effects on pupils’ learning of using Howard Gardner’s theory of multiple intelligences. It is based on explorations carried out in a project ‘using multiple intelligences in the classroom’, initiated by co‐ordinators Brenda Hopper, Val Chamberlain and Barbara Jack in the School of Education at Edge Hill College of Higher Education. The project aimed to focus equally on teachers’ individual professional development, and the learning experiences and development of the pupils involved, and was carried out with teachers in local primary and secondary schools, across a wide range of subjects.
The Facts of Causation
Authors: Hinkfuss I. , Mellor D.H.
Published: March 2003

Mellor, D.H.The Facts of Causation
Navigating the Social World: Simulation versus Theory
Authors: Sterelny Kim
Published: March 2003

Davies, M. and Stone, T. (eds.)Folk Psychology

Davies, M. and Stone, T. (eds.)Mental Stimulation
Criminology and the Aesthetic of Feminine Disappearance
Authors: Goodrich Peter
Published: March 2003

Young, Alison Imaging Crime: Textual Outlaws and Criminal Conversations
Unjust Enrichment and the Autonomy of Law: Private Law as Public Morality
Authors: Rotherham Craig
Published: March 2003

Craig Rotherham reviews:

Hanoch Dagan, Unjust Enrichment: A Study of Private Law and Public Values
Public Charitable Collections: Are they a Worthwhile Cause?
Authors: Barker Christine R.
Published: March 2003

This article examines one of the most long‐established methods of fund‐raising for charitable causes in the UK – public charitable collections – and looks at changing patterns in this method of fund‐raising in recent years. There have been changes both in the method of collection, which now extends beyond cash donations collected by unpaid volunteers to direct debits and credit card donations collected by paid collectors, and also in the chosen locations for collections, with a preference for supermarkets and other off‐street sites. These changes have brought with them difficulties in the regulation of such collections. The article gives a brief overview of current legislative provisions in the UK and the proposed new measures for England and Wales. It examines some of the practical problems involved with the implementation of legislative provisions, and considers some alternative ways of combating potential fraud.
Third Way Regulation? Community Legal Service Partnerships
Authors: Moorhead Richard
Published: March 2003

This article examines recent changes in the civil legal aid scheme in England and Wales (now called the Community Legal Service) and the creation of Community Legal Service Partnerships in particular. The article explores three main interests: it illustrates how third way thinking has been applied to the reform of the legal aid scheme under the Access to Justice Act 1999; it explores how partnership fits within theories of public regulation; and it illustrates how professionalism is being re‐shaped by a combination of new public management, contractualism and partnership. It points to important limitations in new public law theories of extended accountability and democratised governance as manifested in partnerships.
Prosecuting Domestic Violence without Victim Participation
Authors: Ellison Louise
Published: March 2003

This article explores the evidential challenges victim withdrawal presents in domestic violence cases. More specifically it examines innovative measures taken in the United States to overcome problems of proof typically associated with domestic violence prosecutions. These evidentiary initiatives have facilitated a shift towards so–called ‘victimless’ prosecution in the context of domestic violence which dispenses with victim participation. Drawing upon a ‘freedom model’ of criminal justice, this article examines whether recent developments in the United States might be emulated as a means of addressing the high rate of attrition in domestic violence cases in England and Wales.
Ecology: Religious or Secular?
Authors: Scott Peter
Published: March 2003

‘Ecology: religious or secular?’ addresses the issue of the relation between ecology and the idea of God. ‘Social’ interpretations of ecology seem to fit with traditional Christian models, such as stewardship, for grasping the relation between humanity and nature. ‘Deep’ interpretations of ecology, in which nature is understood to encompass humanity, appear, by contrast, less amenable to assimilation by Christianity.

The choice – for so it is often presented – between ‘deep’ and ‘social’ forms of ecology is thus a test case for Christianity. Does the Christian theologian opt for ‘social’ ecology because it best addresses the issue of human embeddedness in nature or because it fits better with prior metaphysical commitments?

This article argues that the only way such a dilemma can be addressed theologically is by thinking through at a fundamental level the character of God’s relation to the world. An enquiry in philosophical theology, through the consideration of the concept of divine simplicity, it is argued, suggests that Christianity is not condemned to ‘religious’ readings of ecology. That is, Christianity is not obliged to select evidence based on criteria derived from prior theological commitments (e.g. to the model of stewardship).

Instead, beginning in the concept of God enables a truly ‘secular’ enquiry which acknowledges a wide range of evidence of our materiality. Indeed, such a ‘secular’ enquiry can only be established by reference to the idea of God.
Can Evil Attract?
Authors: Scarre Geoffrey
Published: March 2003

It has sometimes been claimed that the perceived badness of an act can in some circumstances, or for some agents, be a reason for performing it. The present paper challenges this claim, arguing that it is hard to make sense of the idea that a negative evaluation of an action can provide an intelligible reason for doing it. Apparent counter‐examples are discussed and dismissed and the paper concludes with some general reflections on the relationship between evaluation and motivation.
Plato and the Love of Individuals
Authors: Mooney T. Brian
Published: March 2003

A perennial problem in the philosophy of love has centred around what it is to love persons qua persons. Plato has usually been interpreted as believing that when we love we are attaching ourselves to qualities that inhere in the objects of our love and that these qualities transcend the objects. Vlastos has argued, along with Nussbaum, Price and many others that such an account tells against a true love of persons as unique and irreplaceable individuals. I argue that Plato’s account of love as presented in the Lysis and Symposium is not so easily rejected. My concern is both to show that Plato can meet the objections and that his theory can still offer helpful insights into the understanding of love in our own lives. In particular I will identify two manners of loving persons; one which is context and individual specific, and another which might be termed metaphysical, thereby preserving aspects of the Platonic ascent of love. I will further argue that the two aspects are often non–controversially linked, and that such linking helps explain something of the mysterious nature of love.
Does God Know What It is Like to be Me?
Authors: Mander William J.
Published: March 2003

Does God knows what it is like to be me? Scripture and religious tradition seem quite clear that God knows everything about us, even the deepest secrets of our hearts. There is nothing hidden from him. And this is an answer backed up by a more philosophical theology; for among the traditional list of divine attributes is omniscience: knowing everything that there is to know. The idea, moreover, seems essential to the ordinary religious consciousness, for how can God really help us, or fairly judge us, unless he knows exactly what things are like for us?
H. H. Asquith and Britain's Manpower Problem, 1914–1915
Authors: Little John Gordon
Published: March 2003

H. H. Asquith, Britain's prime minister for more than two years of the First World War, received scant credit for his efforts. His reputation suffered swingeing criticism from his political enemies following his fall from office, and historians, almost without exception, have followed this lead. The image that survives is of a vacillating prime minister, barely handling forces he could not contain, at best acting as the crumbling fulcrum on which men of greater determination and ambition levered their way into power. The assassination of his character has been more than usually complete, yet examination of source material surviving from his period of office raises some doubts as to whether his comprehensive denigration is deserved. This article seeks to re‐examine Asquith's conduct with reference to one particular issue in order to evaluate the criticisms levelled against him and explore their validity. It has been generally accepted that Asquith's handling of the conscription and manpower problem during his ministry was inept and a mass of authoritative writing has been content to reiterate this opinion. However, there are indications of a powerful concatenation of events and actions initiated by Asquith which may challenge his subsequent obloquy.
Enlightenment and Freedom of the Press: The Debate in the Berlin Mittwochsgesellschaft, 1783–1784
Authors: Hellmuth Eckhart
Published: March 2003

The Berlin Mittwochsgesellschaft was a semisecret society (active from 1783 to 1798) which consisted of leading members of the enlightened Prussian intelligentsia who discussed a wide variety of topics. In 1783–4 this society debated the issue of the freedom of the press, often seen as a subject dear to the heart of liberal, enlightened men. The society was divided, however, between those who, believing the masses were incapable of rational action, opposed press freedom, and those who, believing the masses could be educated and enlightened, favoured a free press. The issue of press censorship was therefore a central subject of debate. Most members defended the secretive, absolutist state and argued that censorship was a necessary part of a comprehensive body of legislation; others argued that freedom of the press must include the right to criticize social and political conditions, but there were few traces of the classic enlightened demand for freedom of the press as an inalienable human right. The enlightened elite in this Prussian society did not firmly support unlimited press freedom, largely because so many of its members were officials in the service of the state.
Scotland's ‘Auld Alliance’ with France, 1295–1560
Authors: Bonner Elizabeth
Published: March 2003

To a greater or lesser degree all historical phenomena have their realities and myths, the facts and fables that surround them and are inherent within them. But the ‘Auld Alliance’, as the Scots referred to their relationship with France, is more than usually endowed with fable, while the facts have often been obscured, selectively refined or omitted altogether. The ‘Auld Alliance’ has generally been held to have ended with the death on 5 December 1560 of Mary, Queen of Scots' first husband, Francis II, who was the first and last king of both France and Scotland. The origins of the Anglo‐Franco‐Scottish relationship are to be found in 1295 when the Scots formed the first defensive/offensive alliance with France against the English king, Edward I. But from its very shaky beginnings, as a mutually offensive/defensive military alliance against England, the ‘Auld Alliance’ gradually developed other familial, personal, social and cultural associations which did not die with Francis II, nor entirely ever disappeared. However, it was the advent of Mary, Queen of Scots, and the Anglo‐French competition for her hand in marriage; the treaties, alliances and military engagements this provoked; the resulting role of France in the government of Scotland, culminating in the union of the French and Scottish crowns; and the effects of the Habsburg/Valois conflicts of the 1550s, which inevitably included England and Scotland, which ultimately led to the end of the formal military ‘Auld Alliance’ in 1560.
Popular Astrology and Lutheran Propaganda in Reformation Germany
Authors: Dixon C. Scott
Published: March 2003

Lutheran orthodoxy of the later sixteenth century was marked by a sense of pessimism and anxiety. This was due in part to the apocalypticism at the heart of Luther's theology, but it was also the heritage of failed expectations. At the century's end, Lutheran clergymen doubted whether the movement had succeeded in its essential task, that of winning hearts and minds to the new faith. In the face of this perceived failure, and inspired by the urgency of their moral crusade, the clergy turned to other media in order to preach the faith. One such forum was popular astrology. Lutheran clergymen and almanac writers used almanacs and prognostications to relate the essentials of Luther's moral message. This ‘preaching of the stars' projected an image of the natural world ordered and affected by human conduct, and it detailed in signs and wonders a divine anger which could only be overcome through a turn to improved moral conduct and intense faith. The logic of Lutheran theology was writ in the stars. Far from the desacralized universe of popular perception, the Protestant world was infused with its own forms of sacrality.
What Happened to English Catholicismafter theEnglish Reformation?
Authors: Questier M. C.
Published: March 2003

This article looks again at how historians have discussed Roman Catholicism in England after Elizabeth I came to the throne in 1558. Some scholarly treatments of the topic have represented it as a popular but essentially introspective parish religion. Others have taken it to be an active clericalist force in early modern English national politics. This has made it difficult to define Catholicism’s place in Elizabethan and early Stuart England. Of course, Catholicism in this period clearly had a range of meanings. This article tries to draw some of them together by probing a series of contemporary opinions about Catholicism, and how contemporaries thought it could be expressed and practised.
A Postmodern Reply to Perez Zagorin
Authors: Jenkins Keith
Published: March 2003

This article engages with the arguments forwarded by Perez Zagorin against the possible consequences of postmodernism for history as it is currently conceived of particularly in its “proper” professional/academic form (“History, the Referent, and Narrative: Reflections on Postmodernism Now,”History and Theory 38 [1999], 1‐24). In an overtly positioned response which issues from a close reading of Zagorin's text, I argue that his all‐too‐typical misunderstandings of postmodernism need to be “corrected”—not, however, to make postmodernism less of a threat to “history as we have known it,” or to facilitate the assimilation of its useful elements while exorcising its “extremes.” My “corrections” instead forward the claim that, understood positively and integrated into those conditions of postmodernity which postmodernism variously articulates at the level of theory, such theory signals the possible “end of history,” not only in its metanarrative styles (which are already becoming increasingly implausible) but also in that particular and peculiar professional genre Zagorin takes as equivalent to history per se. And I want to argue that if this theory is understood in ways which choose not to give up (as Derrida urges us not to give up) the “discourse of emancipation” after the failure of its first attempt in the “experiment of modernity,” then this ending can be considered “a good thing.”
Telling Times: History, Emplotment, And Truth
Authors: Carter Jonathan A
Published: March 2003

In Time, Narrative, and History, David Carr argues against the narrativist claim that our lived experience does not possess the formal attributes of a story; this conclusion can be reinforced from a semiotic perspective. Our experience is mediated through temporal signs that are used again in the construction of stories. Since signs are social entities from the start, this approach avoids a problem of individualism specific to phenomenology, one which Carr takes care to resolve. A semiotic framework is also explicit about a theme Carr handles implicitly: the status of representation. Representation is internal to signification, mediating our experience not just retrospectively but prospectively in the planning and execution of action.

A model is presented in which the temporal organization of experience and action is formally coordinated with the temporal organization of narrative. The model is then applied to a historical event: John Batman's attempt in 1835 to purchase land from some Aboriginal tribes around what is now Melbourne. The meaning of this event is not located only in historical writing about it but in the semiotic constitution of the event itself. Changes of meaning emerge from relations between events as new events–in this case the Australian High Court's Mabo decision–align with old ones. Finally, a number of contrasts are indicated between this model and proposals made by Arthur C. Danto, Hayden White, F. R. Ankersmit, Fernand Braudel, and Paul Ricoeur.
Going Down the Glocal: The Local Context of Organised Crime
Authors: Hobbs Dick
Published: March 2003

Transnational organised crime is currently regarded as a threat to contemporary political and economic regimes. This paper will query the use of the term transnational, and suggest that a better understanding of organised crime can be gained from interrogating its local manifestation.
Governing Prisons: An Analysis of Who is Governing Prisons and the Competencies Which They Require to Govern Effectively
Authors: Bryans Shane
Published: March 2003

Prison Governors have received little attention from researchers. This article begins to correct that balance by exploring the characteristics of prison Governors as a group and by identifying the competencies which Governors require to govern effectively. The response to a questionnaire sent to all Governors reveals that the typical Governor is a white male, aged 50, who has been a Governor for the last six years of his 24 years Prison Service career and joined the Prison Service as a second career without a degree. The article goes on to argue that, to be effective, Governors need to be competent in four areas: general management, incident management, public sector management and prison management. In addition, they must demonstrate certain behaviours which are identified in the Prison Service Core Competency Framework.
Social Exclusion and the Politics of Criminal Justice: A Tale of Two Administrations
Authors: Drakeford Mark , Vanstone Maurice
Published: March 2003

This article deals with the relationship between the emerging criminal justice and social policies of the 1997 Labour government. It analyses the legacy inherited from the previous Conservative administrations and explores the extent to which policy making in the one area is now influenced by activity in the other. The authors suggest that the objects of criminal justice policy are most likely to be achieved when understood and developed within a social policy context. They conclude, however, that in a number of important aspects, the current government seems more likely to pursue social policy objectives by invoking the instruments of criminal justice.
Human Rights, Public Safety and the Probation Service: Defending Justice in the Risk Society
Authors: Hudson Barbara
Published: March 2003

This article, which was originally given as the third Bill McWilliams Memorial Lecture at the University of Cambridge, Institute of Criminology, on 28 June 2000, examines some issues raised for the probation service by its roles both as part of the criminal justice system and as a participant in crime prevention partnerships. It suggests that some of the tensions between these roles have apparently been relieved by the criminal justice system articulating ‘risk of reoffending’ more clearly than previously as its primary rationale. There are, however, some problems raised for principles of fair punishment by a move from ‘risk management’ to ‘risk control’. It is argued that adoption of a strong human rights culture would provide the basis for probation to contribute to public protection whilst retaining important values.
Evaluating Probation Based Offender Programmes for Domestic Violence Perpetrators: A Pro‐Feminist Approach
Authors: Bowen Erica , Brown Len , Gilchrist Elizabeth
Published: March 2003

Developments in our understanding of domestic violence and its criminalisation have led some probation areas in the UK to adopt pro–feminist offender groupwork programmes as a means of rehabilitating these offenders. The renaissance of the rehabilitative ideal within probation areas has been followed by the need to prove its effectiveness. This article discusses the justifications of providing rehabilitation for this category of offender, outlines the pro–feminist approach and provides a guide to conducting well designed evaluations within a probation context in light of earlier British evaluations. It concludes by calling for further well designed evaluations to be conducted.
Mediator Tactics and Sources of Conflict: Facilitating and Inhibiting Effects
Authors: Posthuma Richard A. , Dworkin James B. , Swift Maris Stella
Published: March 2003

Sometimes mismatches between tactics used by mediators and causes of the dispute may reduce the likelihood of achieving a settlement. Data from collective‐bargaining disputes suggest that when party inflexibility was a source of the dispute, added mediator pressure increased the likelihood of a settlement, but discussing alternatives reduced the likelihood of a settlement. However, mediation success improved in cases where there is a high level of interparty hostility and mediators focused on negotiation processes.
Imperfect Competition in Auction Designs
Authors: Burguet Roberto , Sákovics József
Published: March 2003

We study the competition between two owners of identical goods who wish to sell them to a pool of potential buyers. The sellers compete simultaneously setting reserve prices for their second price sealed bid auctions. Upon observing the set reserve prices, the buyers decide simultaneously in which auction to bid. We show that this game has (at least) one equilibrium and that all equilibria are inefficient: reserve prices are not driven to zero (cost). We also discuss where and why the parallel between optimal auction design and optimal pricing in the case of monopoly breaks down for oligopoly.
Investment, Pass‐Through, and Exchange Rates: A Cross‐Country Comparison
Authors: Campa José Manuel , Goldberg Linda S.
Published: March 2003

Using detailed data from the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Japan, we examine the implications of exchange rates for time series of sectoral investment. Both theoretically and empirically, we show that investment responsiveness to exchange rates varies over time, positively in relation to sectoral reliance on export share and negatively with respect to the share of imported inputs in production. Important differences exist in investment endogeneity across high‐ and low‐price‐over‐cost markup sectors, with investment in low‐markup sectors often significantly more responsive to exchange rates. Cross‐country differences in investment response are only partially explained by industrial organization arguments.
Social Security Benefits and Employer Behavior: Evaluating Social Security Early Retirement Benefits As a Form of Unemployment Insurance
Authors: Hutchens Robert
Published: March 2003

Employers often shed older workers by encouraging them to “take” early retirement. An implicit contract model suggests that this behavior will be influenced by the social security early retirement program. When demand is weak and layoffs are necessary, social security benefits can act like a form of unemployment insurance, effectively subsidizing workforce reductions by lowering the cost to the firm of shedding older workers. Since social security benefits are not subject to experience rating, the result is an inefficiently high level of early retirements. This paper concludes with a discussion of policies for restoring early retirements to efficient levels.
Search, Bargaining, Money, and Prices Under Private Information
Authors: Trejos Alberto
Published: March 2003

This paper presents a model of money and search where bargaining determines prices and the quality of goods is private information. It studies how a lemons problem affects the purchasing power of money. There are multiple, Pareto‐ranked equilibria. The superior equilibrium, where no lemons are produced, exists even if information about quality is relatively scarce. In other equilibria, there is price dispersion, and uninformed buyers pay higher prices than informed buyers for all goods. Taxing money balances (a proxy for inflation) makes buyers less selective, thus reducing the average quality of supply and the premium paid for known quality.
On Endogenous Growth Under Uncertainty
Authors: De Hek Paul A.
Published: March 2003

This paper incorporates uncertainty in two distinct models of endogenous growth. In both models the representative agent is uncertain about the productivity of knowledge creation, as represented by a probability measure over the relevant parameter. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of risk or volatility in productivity of knowledge creation on the decision variables and the expected long‐run growth rate. Both the first and the second models may explain part of the observed negative link between volatility and growth.
Equilibrium Unemployment Dynamics
Authors: Mortensen Dale T.
Published: March 2003

The global dynamics of Pissarides' (1990) equilibrium model of aggregate unemployment are studied in the case of increasing returns to scale in production and constant returns to scale in the matching process. An equilibrium is a dynamic path for the aggregate number of matches generated by best‐response search and recruiting investment decisions under rational expectations. Necessary and sufficient conditions for multiple equilibria, including limit cycles, are derived, and illustrative examples are computed. The application of saddle‐loop bifurcation theory is a novel feature of the analysis. Since one equilibrium Pareto dominates all the others, a macroeconomic coordination problem exists.
Taxation of Labor Income and the Demand for Risky Assets
Authors: Elmendorf Douglas W. , Kimball Miles S.
Published: March 2003

This article analyzes the effect of labor income risk on the joint saving/portfolio‐composition problem. Given decreasing absolute prudence, we find that even when labor income risk increases overall saving, it tends to lower investment in a risky asset. Applying the theory to public finance, we argue that realistic increases in marginal tax rates on labor can cause large enough reductions in after‐tax labor income risk to cause significant increases in risky investment.
Asset Markets and Investment Decisions*
Authors: De Waegenaere A. , Polemarchakis H. , Ventura L.
Published: March 2003

In an incomplete asset market, firms assign values to investment plans by projecting their payoffs on the span of the payoffs of marketed assets. This is a criterion that does not require firms to possess information, such as the marginal valuation of revenue across date‐events by shareholders, which is not directly observable; rather, it is based on the prices and payoffs of marketed assets. Under standard assumptions, competitive equilibria exist. However, even in the absence of nominal assets, competitive equilibrium allocations are generically indeterminate. The set of competitive equilibria is indexed by the price level at each state of the world, which has implications for the effectiveness of monetary policy.
EMU and Capital Markets: Big Bang or Glacier?
Authors: Gros Daniel
Published: March 2003

EMU is a non‐event from a macroeconomic point of view; financial market regulations will not change and households will barely notice that something has changed on 1 January 1999. In this sense EMU does not constitute a big bang. European financial markets will retain their national characteristics for some time because of the many national regulations (prudential and fiscal) that make assets expressed in euro imperfect substitutes across borders. Moreover, national central banks have a vested interest in preserving local idiosyncrasies, and prudential supervision will also continue to be handled differently from country to country. But these national idiosyncracies cannot forever survive competitive pressures in the euro area. The year 1999 will thus see the beginning of a process of unification of financial markets that will be irresistible in the end, but will take some time to complete.
Financial Crises: Plus ça Change, plus c'est la Même Chose
Authors: Goodhart Charles , Delargy P. J. R.
Published: March 2003

During recent decades most financial crises were caused by excessive public‐sector expansion. The current Asian crisis, however, had its roots in private‐sector over‐expansion. In this respect it had more in common with the pre‐1914 crises. In this paper we compare and contrast these two sets of financial crises. Many of their initial features – a toppling investment boom, widespread bank failures, financial dislocation and withdrawal of prior capital inflows – were common and prevalent in both eras. We focus here on the differences between the two cases and this centres on the external exchange‐rate regime. Prior to 1914, the regime encouraged large‐scale gold inflows in the aftermath of crisis, a re‐liquification of the economy and interest rates returning rapidly to low levels. Stabilizing expectations are harder to encourage in current circumstances; in their absence the essential alternative is to reduce the burden of foreign debt.
The East Asian Economic Crisis: A Japanese Perspective
Authors: Ueda Kazuo
Published: March 2003

This paper argues that, apart from exchange‐rate aspects, the East Asian economic crisis has looked very similar to a domestic banking crisis arising from boom and bust cycles in bank lending and capital investment. One of the key determinants of the boom‐bust cycle in East Asia was the sharp appreciation of the yen against the dollar between the mid‐1980s and the mid‐1990s, and its subsequent depreciation. Real investment and speculative financial capital within and into East Asia responded too much to the yen movements. The paper also discusses factors behind large medium‐term movements in the yen–dollar rate.
Explaining Recent European Exchange‐Rate Stability
Authors: De Grauwe Paul , Dewachter Hans , Veestraeten Dirk
Published: March 2003

In this paper we analyse the behaviour of the bilateral exchange rates that were converted into euros on 1 January 1999. Using a model of stochastic regime switching we study the effects of future conversion on current exchange‐rate dynamics. We find that exchange rates are to a large extent determined by the discounted (expected) conversion value. The theoretical model is subsequently applied to the currencies that participate in the first wave of the European Monetary Union (EMU). Using a Kalman approach, we find that for most currencies the weight attached to the future conversion value was well over 95%. This pricing characteristic successfully insulated intra‐European exchange rates from the turmoil generated by the ongoing crises in Asia, Russia and Latin America.
A New International Financial Architecture?
Authors: Wood Geoffrey
Published: March 2003

Books reviewed in this article:

D. Aldcroft and M. Oliver, Exchange Rate Regimes in the 20th Century

D. Begg, J. Von Hagen, C. Wyplosz and K. F. Zimmermann, EMU: Prospects and Challenges for the Euro

K. Dowd and R. Timberlake (eds), Money and the Nation State

H. Clark Johnson, Gold, France and the Great Depression 1919‐1932

S. Strange, Mad Money
Review: Globalism: New Reality, Old Strategy
Authors: Fishlow Albert
Published: March 2003

Books reviewed in this article:

Gary Burtless, Robert Z. Lawrence, Robert E. Litan and Robert J. Shapiro, Globaphobia: Confronting Fears about Open Trade

Daniel Cohen, The Wealth of the World and the Poverty of Nations

Barry Eichengreen, Toward a New International Financial Architecture: a Practical Post‐Asia Agenda
Multiple Equilibria and the Credibility of the Brazilian ‘Crawling Peg’, 1995–1998
Authors: Lyrio Marco , Dewachter Hans
Published: March 2003

This paper studies the relationship between the probability of devaluation of the Brazilian real and the fundamentals of the economy for the period 1995–8. We use a model of a fixed exchange rate system that allows for multiple equilibria and, therefore, makes possible the identification of self‐fulfilling speculation. We do not find evidence that self‐fulfilling speculation was at work in the period preceding the Brazilian currency crisis of January 1999. This indicates that the breakdown of the Brazilian managed exchange rate system was due to the deterioration of the fundamentals of the economy. Our results bring back to the fore the relevance of international reserves in defending exchange rate pegs in emerging market economies. We also show the importance of focusing on the degree of responsiveness of the market to changes in the fundamental and on a respective ‘vulnerable range’ for the cases where multiple equilibria are not possible.
A Dynamic and Stochastic Beta and Its Implications in Global Capital Markets
Authors: Lin Hong‐Jen , Lin Winston T.
Published: March 2003

This article investigates the dynamic and stochastic behaviour of the beta coefficient of the one‐factor international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM), and its implications for the pricing of stock markets at the country level and the forecasting of stock returns in global stock markets. We apply several novel econometric techniques and conduct necessary statistical tests. We find that the ICAPM has a stochastic and dynamic beta coefficient and that the global stock market is efficient and integrated, and the world market portfolio is mean‐variance efficient. We demonstrate that the dynamic and stochastic behaviour of country betas for the developed countries differs from that of developing economies. The empirical results indicate that the trend and the unexpected change of the foreign exchange rate contribute significantly to the variation patterns of country betas, and that explicit consideration of such changing characteristics will serve to increase the accuracy of stock return forecasts in global stock markets.
The knowledge‐based economy: intellectual origins and new economic perspectives
Authors: Harris Richard G.
Published: March 2003

This paper discusses the intellectual origins of the knowledge‐based economy or KBE, and recent economic theories used to provide an intellectual foundation for the KBE. The KBE is the dominant post‐industrial economic development paradigm that emerged in the 1980s, with an emphasis on the role of knowledge creation and distribution as the primary driver in the process of economic growth, the distribution of income, the growing importance of knowledge‐based networks among firms, and the interface between government business and citizens in the advanced economies. Recent empirical evidence on rates of return, geographic spillovers, and the internationalization of knowledge flows are discussed in relation to the theoretical foundations of the KBE.