Social vulnerability and gastrointestinal cancer mortality among United States counties.
Authors: Naqvi Syed Arsalan Ahmed , Saleem Yusra , Faisal Kunwer Sufyan , Islam Mahnoor , Ayaz Ahsan , Ijaz Hafsah , Khan Komal , Kazmi Syeda Zainab , Bin Zafar Muhammad Daim , Sonbol Bassam Bassam , Jin Zhaohui , Khan Safi U. , Riaz Irbaz Bin 
Published: January 2023

499

Background: The impact of socioeconomic status on gastrointestinal (GI) cancer mortality in the United States (US) is not well-established. We hypothesized that socially vulnerable populations have disproportionately higher mortality rates. Hence, we assessed the association of the social vulnerability index (SVI) with GI cancer mortality across US counties. Methods: Social vulnerability indices were obtained from the agency for toxic substances and disease registry (ATSDR) from 2014-2018 to compute percentile ranking scores (PRS: ranging from 0-1) for each US county. PRS were further categorized into quartiles (Q: 1st: 0-0.25 [least vulnerable]; 4th:0.75-1.00 [most vulnerable]). The wide-ranging online data for epidemiological research (WONDER) database was queried to abstract county-level age-adjusted mortality rates (AAMR) per 100,000 person-years (PY) for populations diagnosed with GI cancers. AAMRs were then linked with quartile rankings. Rate ratios (RR) of AAMRs between 4th and 1st Q were subsequently estimated with 95% confidence intervals using population-weighted, Poisson regression. Results: A total of 3142 counties were included in this analysis. The AAMR for overall deaths (OD) and premature deaths (PD; defined as death at age <65) in the GI cancer population was 53.8 and 17.7 per 100,000 PY. A gradient increase in GI cancer-related mortality was observed from 1st Q to 4th Q (OD: 49.2 vs 59.3; PD: 14.1 vs 21.3). This stepwise increase in AAMR over the quartiles was consistent across gender, different racial/ethnic subgroups, and rural/urban categories of counties. The AAMRs for OD were significantly higher in the 4th Q as compared to the 1st Q for gastric (RR: 1.67 [95% CI, 1.51-1.86]), hepatocellular including intrahepatic biliary (1.52 [1.45-1.61]), colorectal (1.21 [1.16-1.26]) and biliary (1.17 [1.06-1.28]) cancer. Similarly, significantly higher AAMRs for PD were observed in 4th Q vs1st Q for gastric (1.81 [1.60-2.05]), hepatocellular including intrahepatic biliary (1.78 [1.58-2.00]), biliary (1.64 [1.35-1.99]), colorectal (1.29 [1.21-1.39]) and pancreatic (1.16 [1.07-1.25]) cancer. However, no significant differences were observed for esophageal and small intestinal cancers. Men with gastric (1.58 [1.41-1.78]) and hepatocellular cancer (1.54 [1.43-1.66]), non-Hispanic Black population (1.54 [1.31-1.80]) with hepatocellular cancer, and Hispanic population with colorectal cancer (1.50 [1.31-1.72]) were observed to have higher overall mortality in the 4th Q compared to the 1st Q. The findings were similar for premature mortality. Conclusions: Population-level data suggests that the US counties with higher socio-economic adversities may be at an increased risk of GI cancer-related mortality. Investigations using patient-level data are required to probe the impact of socioeconomic vulnerabilities on cancer-related mortality.