Recent climate trends and climate change projections in Sierra Nevada (Spain)&#160;
Authors: Esteban Parra María Jesús , García-Valdecasas Ojeda Matilde , Peinó Calero Eric , Romero Jiménez Emilio , Rosa Cánovas Juan José , Yeste Patricio , Brito Alicia , Gámiz Fortis Sonia Raquel , Castro Díez Yolanda 
Published: March 2022

&lt;p&gt;The climate of Sierra Nevada (SN), located in southeastern Spain, affects many important features for the living systems that inhabit it as well as the water resources of a region with semi-arid characteristics. Climate change in SN can be especially aggravated by its mountain condition in a Mediterranean area, which makes it a double climate change hotspot.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This work describes climate variability and recent trends as well as climate change projections for far future (2070-2100) for the main climate variables in SN area. Precipitation in SN is characterized by marked inter and intraannual variability, a typical condition of the Mediterranean climate. This variability is mainly driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the western part, meanwhile the eastern part is more dominated by Mediterranean depressions, and particularly by the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO). On the other hand, the altitude has a limited impact on rainfall distribution. The influence of altitude is clear for both maximum and minimum temperature, being, in general, lower for minimum temperature. Both temperatures show increasing trends during the last decades, although with a more generalized spatial pattern for minimum ones. According to this increase, significant positive trends are found for extreme event indices associated with warm days as well as a marked increase of potential evapotranspiration (ET0). There is a prevailing decrease in annual and winter precipitation for the whole area, related with significant negative trends over the west of SN. However, there is an increase in drought events characterized by Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), being the enhanced drought conditions related to a more atmospheric demand.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The climate projections were obtained from a set of Euro-CORDEX regional model simulations. showing clear warming along with drier conditions over SN, especially for the RCP8.5 scenario. The ensemble mean results reveal reductions in evapotranspiration for most of SN, with only moderate increases at higher altitudes in winter and spring, probably related to an increase in potential evapotranspiration and an increase in temperature. The total soil moisture content is projected to decrease under the RCP8.5 scenario for all SN. Drought events are likely to become longer and more frequent in the future throughout the Sierra Nevada.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;br&gt;&lt;strong&gt;Keywords&lt;/strong&gt;: Sierra Nevada, climate, temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, drought indices, trends, climate change projections.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&lt;strong&gt;ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS&lt;/strong&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This research was financed by the Spanish Ministry of Economy, Industry and Competitiveness, with additional support from the European Community Funds (FEDER) [projects CGL2017-89836-R and LifeWatch-2019-10-UGR-01] and by the FEDER / Junta de Andaluc&amp;#237;a - Ministry of Economy and Knowledge / Project [B-RNM-336-UGR18].&lt;/p&gt;