bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Impact of eliminating government interventions on China's rice sector
Authors: Fan Shenggen , Wailes Eric , Cramer Gail
Published: January 2020

China's economy has undergone fundamental changes since 1978. Agriculture, industry and services are being transformed into market economies. Marketing and domestic trade have also been reformed to take into account regional comparative advantages. The government, however, still controls input supply and output procurement to some extent. China is currently negotiating with the GATT in regard to gaining membership. Conditions for China's reentering the GATT are to eliminate the government interventions on domestic production and consumption, and international trade. This may affect China's comparative advantages in international markets, and therefore may result in changes in the structure of imports and exports. Will China continue to export rice or will it start to import rice under free trade, and if China continues to export, how much will China export? This paper attempts to model the potential effects of eliminating all government interventions on China's rice sector. We construct a rice industry model to facilitate our analysis. The model has three components, i.e., supply, demand, and price linkages. The estimated results are consistent with theory and are evaluated using several techniques. Results from model validation indicate that both static and dynamic models are reasonable and can be used to simulate effects of various government policies. Simulations are conducted to project China's rice economy to the year 2000. Two scenarios are compared: (1) continued current policy and (2) elimination of all government interventions. Eliminating all government interventions would increase production, stocks, and exports. Domestic consumption would decline due to the higher domestic prices from eliminating government subsidies on rice consumption. China would export more than 1.6 million metric tonnes of milled rice if there were no government interventions in the year 2000.
Determinants of agriculture's relative decline: Thailand
Authors: Martin Will J. , Warr Peter G.
Published: January 2020

During economic development, agriculture declines as a proportion of aggregate national output. A number of theoretical explanations for this phenomenon have been advanced in the economic literature, but their relative historical significance has not been clear. This paper develops an econometric methodology to analyze this issue and applies it to time series data for Thailand. The study investigates the importance of relative commodity prices, factor endowments and technical progress as explanations for changing sectoral GDP shares of agriculture, manufacturing and services. It is concluded that the movement in Thailand's aggregate factor endowment relative to labor was the most important determinant of agriculture's relative decline.
Effects of agricultural production fluctuations on the Chinese macroeconomy
Authors: Ran Guanghe , In Francis , Dillon John L.
Published: January 2020

Based on a macro‐model framed in terms of China's agricultural, industrial, government and household sectors, this paper aims to identify the effects of agricultural production fluctuations on the Chinese macroeconomy over the period 1949–89. Using annual national time‐series data, Granger‐causality tests indicate that fluctuations in China's agricultural production have been a statistically significant cause of changes in other types of Chinese macroeconomic activity. Impulse response analysis shows that shocks in China's agricultural production were followed by analogous responses in national consumption, industrial output, investment, exports and income which peaked with a two‐year lag and vanished after 6 years. Variance decomposition analysis indicates that changes in China's agricultural production were the most important determinant of changes in the level of national consumption and the second most important determinant of changes in the level of industrial production, national investment, exports and national income.
Estimation of dynamic maize supply response in Zambia
Authors: Foster Kenneth A. , Mwanaumo Anthony
Published: January 2020

Increased attention on government pricing policies among African nations leads directly to a need for information about producer responses to price adjustments. This is especially true in the case of Zambian maize production. Maize is the most important crop grown in Zambia. It accounts for more than 80% of the value of marketed food crops, is heavily relied on for subsistence consumption, and is a staple food in the diet of all Zambian citizens. This paper analyzes the aggregate price response of maize supply in Zambia using a dynamic regression analysis. As a result, short, intermediate and long‐run multipliers/elasticities are measured which can be used to analyze the effect of future price policy changes.

It was found that a second‐order rational distributed lag model best fits the available data. Estimates of short‐run elasticities of supply for maize and fertilizer prices are 0.54 and –0.48, respectively. The corresponding estimated long‐run elasticities are 1.57 and – 1.44.
Restructuring of traditional farms and new land relations in Russia
Authors: Brooks Karen , Lerman Zvi
Published: January 2020

Under decrees defining the Russian program of land reform and farm restructuring from 1991 to early 1993, 46% of agricultural land in Russia was transferred from state to collective ownership; 80% of collective and state farms reorganized and most registered as shareholding structures. The number of independent private farmers exceeded 250000 in early 1995. Despite these changes, however, most farms reorganized as whole entities and members kept their land and asset shares in collective production. The paper reports the results of a survey undertaken in 1992/1993 of 2700 farm managers, farm employees, and private farmers in Russia, designed to elucidate changes at the farm level during the early stage of land reform and farm restructuring.
Introducing socioeconomic characteristics into production analysis under risk
Authors: Feinerman Eli , Finkelshtain Israel
Published: January 2020

A theoretical framework is developed to study the effects of socioeconomic factors on farmers' risk attitudes and production decisions. No maintained assumptions about the individual's utility are required. A key element in this framework is the categorization of socioeconomic factors by their effect on the farmer's risk attitudes. A simple methodology for this categorization, based on the equivalence between the Arrow–Pratt measure of risk aversion and the probability of winning demanded, is proposed. The latter is illustrated with data collected in a survey of 180 Israeli farmers from 20 villages.
Fungicide use under risk in Swiss wheat production
Authors: Gotsch Nikolaus , Regev Uri
Published: January 2020

The short‐run effects of fungicide application on economic risk and the effects of risk on fungicide use in Swiss wheat production are empirically explored. A quadratic production function model is developed. With the help of the moment‐based approach, marginal contributions of fungicides (representing controlled inputs) and of rain (representing uncontrolled inputs) to the variances of yield and revenue are analyzed.

It is not possible to show risk‐reducing effects of fungicides on yield or revenue. At low rain quantities during the vegetation period fungicides have a statistically significant risk‐increasing effect on revenue. Increasing risk leads Swiss wheat growers to use more fungicide. This increase is statistically significant at higher levels of revenue. For example, when risk is doubled fungicide inputs are raised by 44% at the highest revenue quartile.
Farm size, relative efficiency and agrarian policy in Côte d'Ivoire: profit function analysis of rice farms
Authors: Adesina Akinwumi A. , Djato Kouakou K.
Published: January 2020

This paper examines the relative economic efficiency of small and large rice farms in Côte d'Ivoire using a profit function approach. No differences in the relative economic efficiency of small and large farms were found. This conclusion is robust under alternative model specifications. Agrarian reforms directed towards further concentration of landholding for large farms in Côte d'Ivoire cannot be justified based on economic efficiency. Results show that access to credit and use of modern rice varieties significantly increase profits. To improve technical efficiency of rice farms, an accelerated program to provide information, credit, improved seeds and other inputs is needed. When all the farms (i.e. large and small) are taken together, there is evidence of allocative inefficiency. Strategies are needed to remove such management related inefficiencies in rice production either through the development of a better market price information system or effective farmer‐oriented technical training programs by rice extension workers.
Dynamic relationships between US and Thai rice prices
Authors: Taylor Earl L. , Bessler David A. , Waller Mark L. , Rister M. Edward
Published: January 2020

Relationships between the United States Department of Agriculture's (USDA) estimated World Market Price, the Thai milled rice price, US transportation‐adjusted cash rough rice price, and the Chicago Rice and Cotton Exchange rough rice futures price are examined for the 1987–1991 marketing years. Specifically, a cointegration analysis is used to address the pricing and informational efficiency of the respective markets. Testing indicates the system is described by two cointegrating vectors. The analysis preformed herein provides insight into the pricing performance of several world rice markets.
Nonparametric analysis of technical, pure technical, and scale efficiencies for food crop production in East Java, Indonesia
Authors: Llewelyn Richard V. , Williams Jeffery R.
Published: January 2020

Nonparametric analysis of technical efficiency for irrigated farms in the Madiun regency in the west‐central part of East Java, Indonesia is conducted using linear programming techniques. This procedure allows the relative technical efficiency for each farm to be determined and for inefficiencies to be decomposed into pure technical inefficiency and scale inefficiency and does not require restrictions or assumptions regarding functional form to be placed on the data.

Farmers in Madiun generally are efficient relative to each other. Farmers operating inefficiently do so more often because of scale inefficiencies rather than pure technical inefficiencies. A majority of the farms operate in the region of decreasing returns to scale rather than increasing returns to scale. Farmer age, the level of diversification of cropping activities, and high school education were found to be related to technical efficiency in the rainy season under irrigated conditions. Other socioeconomic factors were not statistically significant.

The results imply that inefficient farms use excessive levels of inputs, particularly nitrogen fertilizer. This is perhaps due to the lingering effects of past input subsidization policies, particularly of fertilizers, in Indonesia, or to risk‐reducing behavior. The results also imply that current government policies to encourage diversification of cropping practices in Java may lead to greater technical inefficiencies in production. In addition, extension education targeted to younger farmers with low levels of formal education would improve efficiency.
Technical change and irreversible investment under risk
Authors: Ekboir Javier Mario
Published: January 2020

A stochastic dynamic model was constructed to analyze investment decisions of an individual farme under risk in the presence of legibilities, embedded technical change and indivisible capital. An analytical solution was obtained and its local behavior studied by numerical methods. Optimal investment is obtained by regulating the difference between the desired and actual capital stocks between two barriers that define an inaction interval. While the desired capital drifts between the barriers, no action is taken. If the desired capital touches the upper barrier, the farmer invests pushing the average efficiency of the actual capital stock up. This in turn raises the desired capital even higher and contracts the inaction interval. If these effects are strong enough, the farmer will invest again until the potential gains of the technological package are exhausted. If the desired capital falls enough, the farmer disinvests, pushing down the average productivity and expanding the inaction interval. Disinvestment continues until it slops either because the inaction interval becomes so wide that it is no longer optimal to disinvest or because the actual capital stock is so small that it is no longer profitable to produce.
Agricultural competitiveness: The case of the United States and major EU countries
Authors: Gopinath Munisamy , Arnade Carlos , Shane Mathew , Roe Terry
Published: January 2020

Growth in the agricultural GDP of four major European countries is compared with US agricultural growth for the period 1974–1993. The agricultural sector's relative prices are taken into account along with economy‐wide factor market adjustments. For Denmark, France, Germany and the UK, the effects of declining real prices and changes in input levels on growth in agricultural GDP are relatively small. Total Factor Productivity (TFP) growth appears to be the major contributor to European agricultural GDP growth. In comparison, TFP is the major source of growth in US agricultural GDP, but its rate of growth is lower than the European countries. In contrast, the declining real prices for US agriculture had a relatively large effect on its GDP. However, in recent years, the effects of declining real prices and declining rates of growth in TFP on European agriculture are relatively large. In the longer‐run, the relative competitiveness of US agriculture is largely dependent on its ability to sustain and increase growth in TFP.
Sensitivity analysis of normative economic models: theoretical framework and practical strategies
Authors: Pannell David J.
Published: January 2020

The parameter values and assumptions of any economic model are subject to change and error. Sensitivity analysis (SA), broadly defined, is the investigation of these potential changes and errors and their impacts on conclusions to be drawn from the model. There is a very large literature on procedures and techniques for SA, but it includes almost nothing from economists. This paper is a selective review and overview of theoretical and methodological issues in SA. There are many possible uses of SA, described here within the categories of decision support, communication, increased understanding or quantification of the system, and model development. The paper focuses somewhat on decision support. It is argued that even the simplest approaches to SA can be theoretically respectable in decision support if they are applied and interpreted in a way consistent with Bayesian decision theory. This is not to say that SA results should be formally subjected to a Bayesian decision analysis, but that an understanding of Bayesian probability revision will help the modeller plan and interpret an SA. Many different approaches to SA are described, varying in the experimental design used and in the way results are processed. Possible overall strategies for conducting SA are suggested. It is proposed that when using SA for decision support, it can be very helpful to attempt to identify which of the following forms of recommendation is most appropriate: (a) do, V, (b) do either X or Y depending on the circumstances, (c) do either X or Y, whichever you like, (d) if in doubt, do X. A system for reporting and discussing SA results is recommended.
Technical efficiency in paddy farms of Tamil Nadu: an analysis based on farm size and ecological zone
Authors: Tadesse Bedassa , Krishnamoorthy S.
Published: January 2020

Despite the wider application of efficiency analysis in Indian agriculture, little has been done on the investigation of intra and interecological variations, size differences and their interactions. However, ecological issues have paramount implications for the low‐input sustainable agricultural production. Furthermore, due to the various causes of efficiency, the age‐old size‐based debate on efficiency differences is not yet resolved. The present study examines the level of technical efficiency across ecological zones and farm size groups in paddy farms of the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu. The study showed that 90% of the variation in output among paddy (IR‐20) farms in the state is due to differences in technical efficiency. Land, animal power and fertilisers have significant influence on the level of paddy production. Varying from 0.59 to 0.97, the mean technical efficiency was found to be 0.83. The use of F‐test in two‐way analysis of variance (ANOVA) and censored regression (Tobit model), with dummies for ecological zones, farm size groups and their interactions, has shown that, at mean level, the level of technical efficiency among paddy farms of the state differs significantly across agro‐ecological zones and size groups as well, The study further indicated that small‐sized paddy farms in zone II and medium‐sized paddy farms in zone III are represented by ecologically size‐biased production techniques; thus achieving higher technical efficiency.
Implications of the minimum access rice import on supply and demand balance of rice in Japan
Authors: Kako Toshiyuki , Gemma Masahiko , Ito Shoichi
Published: January 2020

The recent development of rice policies in Japan are summarized. The impact of the minimum access (MA) import on the supply and demand balance of rice, and the rice diversion areas in the future is also predicted.
Identifying international rice research spillovers in New South Wales
Authors: Brennan John P. , Singh Inder Pal , Lewin Laurie G.
Published: January 2020

The rice industry in New South Wales, Australia, has benefited from the international flow of germplasm, as have other industries. The aim in this paper is to identify those international flows, and to value their contributions to the industry. Analysis is made of the origins and Pedigrees of the rice varieties grown in New South Wales since the 1960s, and the contribution of different germplasm sources are identified, using the geometric rule of partitioning contributions. The analysis reveals that New South Wales has had a significant contribution from international sources, notably breeding programs in the USA. The analysis also reveals that the International Rice Research Institute has had no impact on the germplasm used in New South Wales rice varieties. The changes over time on the role of international germplasm flows arc also identified.
Potential of China's grain production: evidence from the household data
Authors: Huang Yiping , Kalirajan K.P.
Published: January 2020

This study investigates whether China has achieved its potential in grain production fully with the existing technology. A stochastic varying coefficients frontier approach is applied on recent household survey data of 1000 grain farmers covering the periods 1993–95. The results indicate that, on average, the actual grain outputs are about 15–35% lower than the potential output. The analysis has identified households' human capital stock, land size and market‐oriented reform as important factors contributing positively to grain production efficiency.
China and Taiwan access to the World Trade Organization: implications for U.S. agriculture and trade
Authors: Wang Zhi
Published: January 2020

This paper investigates the impact of China's and Taiwan's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on U.S. and world agricultural trade by means of a 12‐region, 14‐sector Computable General Equilibrium model for world trade and production. The simulation results show that integrating China and Taiwan into the global trading system could induce more competition on labor‐intensive Products and reduce their prices. It could drive up the demand for capital and skill‐intensive manufactured goods, thus further improving industrial countries' terms of trade. The expansion of labor‐intensive sectors in China could also induce contraction in agricultural exports from China and increase its net agricultural imports by as much as US$9 billion annually, causing food and agricultural exports from other regions to increase. Total U.S. food and agricultural exports could increase by about US$2.4 billion annually, with the non‐grain crop sectors gaining the most. The biggest winner from China's WTO accession is China itself. WTO membership could bring a net welfare gain of about US$30 billion a year for China, a substantial benefit compared with the gains for the USA (US$8.5 billion).
Transactional framework of sharecropping: empirical evidence
Authors: Chew Tek‐Ann
Published: January 2020

Chew [Chew. Tek‐Ann 1991 Share contracts in Malaysian rubber smallholdings. Land Econ., 67: 85–98; Chew, Tek‐Ann, 1993. The Transactional framework of sharecropping: further implications. Can. J. Agric. Econ., 41: 209–221.] proposed a transactional framework of sharecropping that accommodates both the Marshallian and the Cheungian equilibria. An important conclusion arising thereof is the hypothesis that Cheung's sharecropping equilibrium is the rarity while the Marshallian equilibrium is the norm. In this paper, we collated some recent evidences to verify this hypothesis. The evidences support the Marshallian equilibrium, thereby providing indirect support for the transactional framework of sharecropping.
Efficiency and technical progress in traditional and modern agriculture: evidence from rice production in China
Authors: Xu Xiaosong , Jeffrey Scott R.
Published: January 2020

Productive efficiency for Chinese hybrid and conventional rice production is estimated using a dual stochastic frontier efficiency decomposition model. Results reveal significant differences in technical and allocative efficiency between conventional and hybrid rice production, and indicate significant regional efficiency differences in hybrid rice production, but not in conventional rice production.
The economics of on‐farm processing: model development and an empirical analysis
Authors: Ekman Sone , Andersson Hans
Published: January 2020

Recent trends in the developments of the Common Agricultural Policy suggest an increasing attention towards rural development issues. On‐farm processing may offer an alternative for diversification, income generation and rural development in the event of increasingly deregulated agricultural markets. In this study, the economics of on‐farm processing for the case of the Swedish potato industry is examined. An interregional partial equilibrium model is developed. Various stages of the potato marketing chain are explicitly modelled. It is empirically demonstrated that, in some regions, on‐farm processing is a part of a socially optimal industry structure. Furthermore, it is shown that on‐farm processors are more robust towards import competition than bulk product producers. Hence, the results support the notion that small scale processing may contribute towards satisfying some of the objectives of an effective rural development agenda.
Induced innovation and land degradation: Results from a bioeconomic model of a village in West Africa
Authors: Barbier Bruno
Published: January 2020

This paper introduces a modeling method which simulates a village's response to population and market pressure. The method combines a recursive and dynamic linear programming model with a biophysical model of soil condition and plant growth that predicts yields and land degradation for different type of land, land use and cropping patterns. The linear programming model simulates farmers' plans aggregated at the village level under constraints of risk aversion, food consumption, land area, soil fertility, soil depth, labor and cash availability. Detailed agroecological factors determine Ihe main processes of land degradation. A large number of technological alternatives, representing different degrees of labor and/or land‐saving techniques available in the study areas, are introduced, taking into account their respective constraints, costs and advantages. The method has been calibrated for a village located in the sub‐humid region of Burkina Faso. Several simulations are carried out to the Year 2030. The results show that population pressure leads to intensification and investment in land conservation practices out not necessarily to better farm incomes. Increasing market opportunities can play a more positive role in boosting productivity, but for the next decades the best way to increase production per farmer is to let farmers migrate from the high‐population‐density areas to the low‐population‐density areas because, under the current economic conditions of most Sahelian countries, intensification per hectare is stil more expensive than the fallow system.
Tenure, land rights, and farmer investment incentives in China
Authors: Li Guo , Rozelle Scott , Brandt Loren
Published: January 2020

The goal of this paper is to understand the nature of the property rights associated with China's land tenure systems and to study the impact of these property rights on agricultural production efficiency. The results show that land tenure and associated property rights in rural China affect the production behavior of farmers. The most robust finding is that the right to use land for long periods of time encourages the use of land‐saving investments. While the results show that land tenure affects agricultural production decisions, the difference between collective and private plots, however, is small compared to the private plot‐ communal productivity gap that existed in the pre‐reform period.
Testing the induced innovation hypothesis: an error correction model of South African agriculture
Authors: Thirtle C. , Townsend R. , van Zyl J.
Published: January 2020

This paper applies cointegration techniques to a model of induced innovation based on the two‐stage constant elasticity of substitution (CES) production function. This approach results in direct tests of the inducement hypothesis, which are applied to data for South African commercial agriculture for the period 1947–1991. South African data is used because the policy changes have been substantial enough that the factor and price ratios have turning‐points, rather than being monotonie. The time series properties of the variables are checked, cointegration is established, and an error correction model (ECM) constructed, allowing factor substitution to be separated from technological change. Finally, the ECM formulation is subjected to causality tests, which show that both the factor price ratios and R&D and extension expenditures are Granger‐prior to the factor‐saving biases of technological change. Thus, each stage of the analysis corroborates the inducement hypothesis. However, straightforward price‐inducement is only part of the explanation of changes in factor ratios. Policy‐induced innovation, in response to tax concessions and subsidised credit, is also present.
Water pricing policies, public decision making and farmers' response: implications for water policy
Authors: Varela‐Ortega Consuelo , Sumpsi José M. , Garrido Alberto , Blanco María , Iglesias Eva
Published: January 2020

The problems caused by water scarcity demand important changes in the criteria and objectives of water policies. The agricultural sector in Spain consumes up to 80% of all available hydric resources and the need to increase the efficiency of current uses of water in the agricultural sector is at the core of the country's national water policy. One alternative would be to resort to water pricing policies with the aim of providing incentives to save water consumption although it would inflict a certain degree of income losses to the farmers and raise the revenue collected by the water authorities. The objective of this research is to analyze the effect caused by the application of different water pricing policies on water demand, farmers' income and the revenue collected by the government agency. To undertake this analysis a dynamic mathematical programming model has been built that simulates farmers' behavior and their response to different water pricing scenarios. Empirical application of the model has been carried out in several irrigation districts in Spain covering varied farm regions and river basins. Results show that the effects of alternative pricing policies for irrigation water are strongly dependent on regional, structural and institutional conditions and that changing policies produce distinct consequences within the same region and water district. Thus, equivalent water charges would create widespread effects on water savings, farm income and collected government revenue across regions and districts.
Government intervention and market integration in Indonesian rice markets
Authors: Ismet Mohammad , Barkley Andrew P. , Llewelyn Richard V.
Published: January 2020

Long‐run spatial price relationships in Indonesian rice markets and factors affecting the degree of market integration are evaluated using multivariate cointegration tests with weekly price data for the 1982‐1993 period. The analysis includes evaluation of pre‐self‐sufficiency and post‐self‐sufficiency periods as well as Cot the entire period. The cointegration tests for entire Indonesian rice market, represented by the nine most relevant price series, indicate that relative to the pre‐self‐sufficiency period, the post‐self‐sufficiency period has a smaller degree of market integration. The change of the degree of market integration over time indicates that rationalizing of the Indonesian rice price policy beyond 1984 rice self‐sufficiency has resulted in a less integrated market. This suggests that the policy shift has allowed the government to decrease its intervention without significantly decreasing market integration, indicating that the private sector is responding to price signals appropriately. It is possible that further reduction in intervention through widening the band between the floor and ceiling price could be accomplished without greatly affecting market integration. Regression results show that government intervention in terms of rice procurement significantly influenced market integration during the period of post‐self‐sufficiency (1985‐1993) and the entire period of 1982‐1993. This indicates that this aspect of government intervention has had positive influences on market integration, in contrast to distribution efforts, which were not found to be statistically significant, Procurement prices may be high, and could perhaps be lowered, reducing program costs. Regional per capita income is also found to be positively related to highei levels of market integration, suggesting that in periods of economic growth, government intervention may be decreased, thereby reducing program costs.
Prospects for food security in the 21st Century: with special emphasis on Africa
Authors: McCalla Alex F.
Published: January 2020

Food security for the world in 2025 is possible and probable if the right set of things are done, starting now. But the task will not be easy. It is both a technology and a political/economic challenge. The challenge for sub‐Saharan Africa is even greater. While other regions improved per capita food availability over the last 30 years, Africa's availability declined. But food security is about more than supply. It is also about access which means income generating employment is critical. Meeting future requirements in Africa and the world will require sustainable intensification of complex production systems, appropriate national and international policies and continued investments in agricultural research. Without these conditions and increased employment intensive growth, prospects for the future are less bright.
An economic assessment of the Common Market Organization for bananas in the European Union
Authors: Guyomard Hervé , Laroche Catherine , Mouël Chantal Le
Published: January 2020

The main objective of this paper is to provide some estimates of how the world banana market has been affected by the Common Market Organization (CMO) for bananas established in the European Union (EU) on 1 July 1993, and modified in April 1994. We quantify the effects of the new EU regulation on world and EU prices, on the structure of EU imports from Latin American countries, African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries and EU regional suppliers, on the pattern of consumption in the various EU member states, and on consumers' and producers' welfare using a static partial equilibrium model of the world banana market. Simulation results suggest that the two key variables in determining the effects of the CMO are the size of the tariff quota on dollar and non‐traditional ACP bananas and the capacity of ACP countries to exhaust their ACP contingent share.
The performance of Botswana's traditional arable agriculture: growth rates and the impact of the accelerated rainfed arable programme (ARAP)
Authors: Seleka Tebogo B.
Published: January 2020

This study assesses the performance of Botswana's traditional arable agriculture for the 1968‐90 period. Growth rate and arable sub‐sector production models are specified and estimated to determine how the sub‐sector performed over time, and to capture the impact of the Accelerated Rainfed Arable Programme (ARAP). Growth rate model results indicate that cultivated area increased by about 2.2% per year during the 1968‐90 period. However, crop output remained unchanged and yields declined by about 6.1% per year during the review period. Sub‐sectoral model results reveal that cultivated area, output and yields rose by about 27%, 120% and 74% (respectively) due to the implementation of ARAP. Therefore, ARAP was effective in improving rural household food security and welfare. However, it is further argued that the program was unsustainable since it involved phenomenal government outlays and has led to an unprecedented input substitution from animal traction to tractor traction, which seems to be unjustified given the current economic fundamentals of the country's traditional arable farming. Moreover, the results reveal loss of productivity in the sub‐sector over time. Therefore, the challenge facing policy makers is to devise new ways of reversing the current trend.
Wheat policy and economy‐wide reform in Brazil
Authors: Silva Orlando Monteiro da , Grennes Thomas
Published: January 2020

In recent years, the wheat sector in Brazil has moved from governmental protection and public intervention to a free market and privatization. In this study, those changes are analyzed through measures of governmental intervention on nominal rates of protection and on welfare of producers and consumers. Elasticities of demand and supply of wheat are estimated, and the effects of changes in policies are analyzed under official and shadow exchange rates. Welfare measures indicate that almost US$ 8 billion were spent from 1970 until 1989 with policies to subsidize producers and consumers. The policy‐induced stimulus to consumer demand exceeded the stimulus to domestic production, and self sufficiency in wheat declined. The reduction in wheat subsidies since 1989 was more than an isolated sector‐specific policy. It was part of macroeconomic antiinflation policy, and it coincided with other economy‐wide changes such as real appreciation and a decline in international commodity prices.
Family farm dynamics in Canada and Israel: the case of farm exits
Authors: Kimhi Ayal , Bollman Ray
Published: January 2020

Canada is one of the Jew countries for which data exist on individual family farms over time. Using these data, researchers have been able to show that much of the microdynamics of family farms in Canada (e.g. changes in size distribution) can be attributed to farmer entry and exit. However, the behavioral aspects of the exit decision received little attention in the literature. A comparison of Canadian and Israeli data could help us understand these behavioral aspects because of the vast institutional differences between the farm sectors in the two countries, and the possible effect of the institutional setup on exit decisions. Comparison of exit patterns may enable us to identify the dependence of farmers' mobility on the institutional setup. This may also have policy relevance. In both Canada and Israel, exit probability decreases with the extent of off‐farm work. We conclude that off‐farm work is complementary rather than a substitute for farm work, perhaps due to its less volatile nature. Both, Canadian and Israeli farmers over a certain age are more likely to exit as they become older, which is a natural result, but exit probability in Canada rises much faster with age than in Israel. The major difference between Canadian and Israeli farm‐exit patterns lies in the farm size. Farm size decreases exit probability in Canada but increases it in Israel. Perhaps this is because Israeli farm exits are less planned in advance than Canadian exits. Institutional constraints on land transactions in Israel may also play a role.
Agricultural higher education in transforming Central and Eastern Europe
Authors: Csaki Csaba
Published: January 2020

The paper discusses the major changes necessary for the agricultural higher education system in Central and Eastern Europe, including the former Soviet Union, to meet the challenges created by overall reforms in the food and agricultural sector as well as the adjustment of the global system of agricultural education. The issues arising from the need for reforms in the agricultural education system are presented in an overview of the inherited features of the system, an assessment of the current situation, a status report on the reform attempts and a discussion of the critical issues for the future.
Redistribution of social benefits from advances in extension and research in the Tanzanian maize industry
Authors: Nkonya Ephraim M. , Parcell Joe L.
Published: January 2020

This study determined consumer and producer welfare gains from advances in extension and research in the maize industry of Tanzania to determine how a national taxing schedule should be determined. It was found that, for an off‐farm marketable surplus of 40%, consumers and producers gain equally, while for an off‐farm marketable surplus of 60%, consumers realize 75% of the welfare benefits. This suggests that consumers and producers should share equally in a revenue generating tax for funding maize research and extension programs. However, for large producers with a marketable surplus of 60% or more, their tax should decrease proportionally to the amount sold. Alternatively, if taxed equally, large‐scale producers should receive some form of compensation through direct government payments.
Pass‐through of exchange rates and tariffs in Greek‐US tobacco trade
Authors: Rezitis Anthony N. , Brown A. Blake
Published: January 2020

The paper examines the extent to which exchange rate and unit tariff changes are passed‐through in US import prices ot unmanufactured Greek oriental tobacco. The results indicate partial pass‐through of exchange rates and tariffs. Exchange rate pass‐through is about 0.272 and tariff pass‐through about 0.185. One possible reason for the partial pass‐through is oligopoly in tobacco exporting. Oligopoly would imply that depreciation of the drachma relative to the US dollar benefits tobacco exporters operating in Greece. A second possible reason is a possible correlation between exchange rates premiums paid to tobacco exporters in previous agricultural policies. An important implication ot this possible correlation is that Greek tobacco prices may be more sensitive lo exchange rate changes under the current agricultural policy.
Improving The Reproducibility of Science
Authors: Held Leonhard , Schwab Simon
Published: January 2020

Leonhard Held and Simon Schwab introduce a new series of articles that will highlight topics related to the production of robust, effective and reproducible science
The Family of Two-Piece Distributions
Authors: Rubio Francisco J. , Steel Mark F. J.
Published: January 2020

If your data aren't entirely normal, don't panic. Francisco J. Rubio and Mark F. J. Steel know a family that can help
Phase relations in the calcium carbonate/ammonium phosphate system under aqueous conditions and 25°C
Authors: Balonis Magdalena , Ma Xiao , Kakoulli Ioanna
Published: January 2020

A theoretical and experimental approach was applied to investigate phase relations in a system containing calcium carbonate and different ammonium phosphate solutions. Using laboratory experiments and thermodynamic modeling, this paper provides an insight into the formation of stable phase assemblages in the calcium carbonate and mono‐, di‐, triammonium phosphate aqueous system. Focus is placed on the morphological and mineralogical characterization and thermodynamic calculation of calcium phosphates precipitating due to the reaction between the calcium carbonate and ammonium phosphate solutions. Correlations between the formed stable calcium phosphate phases and the ammonium phosphate precursors are provided. Advantages and limitations of various analytical and modeling techniques used in this study such as geochemical equilibrium‐based modeling, X‐ray diffraction, scanning electron microscopy, and thermal analysis, are critically evaluated. Additionally, possible impacts of the ammonium phosphate solution type on the kinetics of phase transformations are discussed.
The effect of option transaction costs on informed trading in the options market around earnings announcements
Authors: Govindaraj Suresh , Li Yubin , Zhao Chen
Published: January 2020

We investigate the effect of option market transaction costs (a form of market imperfection) on the ability of option implied volatility‐based measures to predict future stock returns and volatility around quarterly earnings announcements. We find that the predictability is significantly stronger for firms with lower option relative bid‐ask spreads. The effect is more pronounced around positive rather than negative earnings news. We find no significant effect of option transaction costs around randomly chosen dates when there is no clustering of major information events. Trading strategies based on option market predictors and transaction costs earn monthly abnormal returns of 1.39% to 1.91%.
Island‐biogeographic patterns of spider communities on epiphytes depend on differential space use among functional groups
Authors: Méndez‐Castro Francisco Emmanuel , Mendieta‐Leiva Glenda , Rao Dinesh , Bader Maaike Y.
Published: January 2020

Aim

Positive relationships between island size and species richness have been found for oceanic and non‐oceanic islands. However, the effect of isolation, also predicted by island‐biogeographical theory, seems challenging to test. Species‐specific mechanisms drive the perception of distance and space for animals, and therefore isolation patterns are masked when described at the community level. We used epiphytic plants (canopy islands) and their spider communities to study how functional group and species‐specific use of space modifies the effect of island‐level predictors on species richness.

Location

A coffee plantation near Xalapa, Mexico.

Taxon

Spiders (Araneae), vascular epiphytes (Bromeliaceae, Piperaceae, Orchidaceae, Araceae, Pteridophyta).

Methods

We collected canopy islands from three trees and recorded their three‐dimensional position. Afterwards, we collected all epiphyte‐dwelling spiders. We used Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) to analyse the effect of island size and isolation on the species richness of spider communities and community subgroups (guilds, mobility groups and families). Isolation was calculated using two metrics (aerial and walking distances) associated with different ways of mobility in the canopy (bridging and wandering respectively). We evaluated species‐level associations with island features and tested for sample‐size effects on GLMs using null‐model analysis of ecological networks.

Results

Although unimportant at the community level, isolation was more important than island size for some spider subgroups, while having negligible effects for others. Species‐specific responses to isolation and island size were responsible for the variability in species richness patterns observed for broader subgroups (families, guilds and mobility groups). Specific responses of mobility groups to isolation metrics were in line with two ways of moving between islands; one using tree branches as pathways (walking isolation) and the other using silk threads to connect points directly across the air (aerial isolation).

Main conclusions

Spatial patterns of epiphyte‐dwelling spiders were explained better when functional traits were considered, and the effect of isolation became apparent only when analysed per functional group, whereas it was masked at the community level. This supports the hypothesis that hunting behaviour and mobility affect the specific perception of space and distance even at the small spatial scale of canopy islands.
microRNA‐30a attenuates TGF‐β1–induced activation of pulmonary fibroblast cell by targeting FAP‐α
Authors: Wu Geting , Xie Bin , Lu Can , Chen Chen , Zhou Jianhua , Deng Zhenghao
Published: January 2020

Idiopathic interstitial pulmonary fibrosis is a common diffuse interstitial lung disease and has poor prognosis. And one of the pathological features of it is persistent fibroblast activation. It was reported that microRNA‐30a was down‐regulated in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid from idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis patients. But whether miR‐30a is involved in fibroblast activation and its specific mechanism is unclear. In this study, we aimed to investigate the role of miR‐30a in fibroblast activation induced by TGF‐β1. We found miR‐30a could targetedly suppress FAP‐α expression. In MRC5 cells, miR‐30a was not only involved in regulating the expression of FAP‐α, col1a and α‐SMA induced by TGF‐β1 but also had a role in cell proliferation with or without TGF‐β1 treatment via regulating FAP‐α expression. Thus, the results indicated that miR‐30a alleviated fibroblast activation by regulating the expression of FAP‐α.
‘We Serve the People of Europe’: Reimagining the ECB's Political Master in the Wake of its Emergency Politics
Authors: Lokdam Hjalte
Published: January 2020

In the wake of the Euro crisis, the mission statement on the European Central Bank's (ECB) website was changed from ‘Our mission is to serve Europe's citizens’ to ‘Our mission is to serve the people of Europe’. This article situates this discursive shift within a broader change of the ECB's self‐presentation in public discourses and explores its meaning in terms of political theory and public law. The article argues that the shift represents a response to the perceived necessity of reimagining the ECB's foundation of legitimate governmental authority following its exercise of emergency powers during the Euro crisis. The discourse emphasizes an organic link between the ECB and ‘the people of Europe’ as a political subject able to authorize previously unauthorized governmental practices such as the outright monetary transactions programme. It reflects, furthermore, a new governing philosophy that stresses flexibility and discretion rather than strict adherence to rules in the ECB's exercise of power.