bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
CSA EXP248: Pipeline Human Factors
Authors: Harron Lorna , Capper Sue
Published: January 2019

Human Factors play an important role in the reduction of pipeline incidents. There has been little guidance specific to the Pipeline Industry related to Human Factors management, with the exception of Control Room Management, in the recent past. The Human Factors Working Group, formed during the 2013 Banff Pipeline Workshop, partnered with CSA Group to fill an identified gap in the industry related to Pipeline Human Factors. The result was the creation of an Express Document, CSA EXP248 Pipeline Human Factors.

CSA EXP248 (EXP248) considers Human Factors through the life cycle of a pipeline asset. The main goal of this document is to improve pipeline safety performance through management of risks associated with Human Factors. It provides guidance to pipeline operators on the need and means to integrate Human Factors in all aspects of the Pipeline Life Cycle and Management System, with philosophy considerations for integration of Human Factors into a “fit for service” pipeline system.

A review of EXP248 will illustrate how this document provides information that is scalable to organizations based on size and complexity.

This paper reviews the new CSA Group Express Document process and its application for the Pipeline Industry. This paper will discuss kkey aspects of EXP248 that operators could apply and practical tips on the application of this guidance to the pipeline operating community. Areas highlighted during this review include elements of a Human Factors program, consideration of physical, organizational and cognitive demands of a job or task, and integration of Human Factors into Management Systems.

Finally, the paper will describe next steps to create a CSA Group consensus standard for Pipeline Human Factors, where EXP248 will serve as a seed document. Lessons learned during the use of the new Express Document will be highlighted and the use of this new process for other applications explored.
A Staged Approach for Managing Terrain and Geohazards on New Pipeline Projects
Authors: Leir Mark , Baumgard Alex , Johnston Katherine
Published: January 2019

Pipeline route selection and design is an iterative process by which one or more potential pipeline corridors are systematically narrowed from the general path of about 10 km in width to a highly specified 30 m to 50 m wide corridor. The process usually spans several years, and is frequently becoming increasingly complicated, requiring a multi-disciplinary technical and managerial approach that considers the political and regulatory process, environmental impact and permitting, project and industry economics, access, constructability, land acquisition, and terrain. Specialist technical contributions to the pipeline routing process include pipeline hydraulics, pipeline and facility construction, terrain/geohazards, and environment/archaeology. Problematic terrain and geohazards are two of several issues that need to be managed through the feasibility and design of a new pipeline project. As the project advances through Front End Engineering and Design (FEED) from feasibility to final engineering design and as the corridor narrows from kilometers to tens of meters in width, the level of detail required in ongoing terrain and geohazard investigations should increase to optimize the design process and match the increased detail being provided by other specialists.

An idealized Four-Stage framework for managing geohazards and problematic terrain during pipeline routing and design is outlined in the paper. This framework has been founded on several international resources listed in the references and has, by necessity, been developed, tested, and refined by the authors over the last ten years on several large and small diameter pipeline projects in North and South America. Each of the 4 Stages is described and contains guidelines on project study scale, a target corridor width, the engineering design level, cost accuracy, and geohazard related engineering tasks and deliverables. This staged approach is provided as a road map to help guide all project participants including owners, project managers, engineers, scientists, and regulators to understand how geohazards and problematic terrain are managed through the pipeline routing and design process.
Anisotropic HFI Welded Steel Pipes for Strain Based Design
Authors: Hilgert Oliver , Höhler Susanne , Brauer Holger
Published: January 2019

Generally isotropic behavior is assumed and demanded in line pipe specifications. Especially in strain based design, compressive and tensile strain capacity models rely on iso-tropic assumptions. On the other hand every pipe has got an anisotropic material characteristic which effects the performance in strain based design. In this contribution HFI-welded steel tubes are investigated due to their underlying material anisotropy. Depending on their basic strip weld material and production process the anisotropy differs from UOE or spiral welded pipes. Especially, in radial direction of steel pipe mechanical properties are challenging to gain. Thus two methods are suggested to characterize the anisotropic parameters in all three pipe directions. A small scale approach evaluating Lankford values and a full scale method evaluating Hill factors are applied. While Lankford method relies on strains, Hills method relies on stresses. Both methods are explained and validated by internal pressure and full scale bending tests.

Using the anisotropy parameters, their effect on strain based design is analyzed — both experimentally and numerically. In the end it is shown that distinct anisotropies can provide a benefit for HFI-welded steel tubes concerning strain capacity in strain based design applications.
Technical Competency Assurance for Pipeline Integrity Professionals: A Model and a Toolkit
Authors: Tran Jonny , Hammond Karen , Griffin Kathleen
Published: January 2019

The integrity of a pipeline and the competence of those who manage it are undeniably linked — you can’t have one without the other. While few would argue this point, the process of how best to define, measre, develop and assure the competency of pipeline professionals, especially those working outside of field operations, is far less certain. The Pipeline Integrity (PI) department of the Liquids Pipelines (LP) division of Enbridge took on this challenge. Following a review of best practices and technical competency models in diverse industries, Enbridge custom-built an innovative technical competency model for Pipeline Integrity Professionals, from junior engineers to senior specialists and managers. The model includes competencies both general (e.g., communication, project management) and highly specific to the work of pipeline integrity (e.g., tank integrity management, internal corrosion engineering, pressure cycling management). This paper will describe the Enbridge Pipeline Integrity Technical Competency Model and “toolkit” in detail, including the architecture, competency library, measurement scale and assessment process. The business case, best practices research, project governance, development process and lessons learned are also described in order to provide a robust case study and practical guideline for others in the pipeline sector seeking to define and manage competencies for technical professionals.
Experimental Response of Steel Pipelines to Close Trench Blasting
Authors: Matta Lawrence M.
Published: January 2019

When protecting pipelines from third party activities, it is beneficial for operators to apply very conservative criteria for safe blasting. Recently, however, demands for increased capacity have required adding pipelines to existing rights-of-way, often close to or between existing pipelines. In these cases, overly-conservative blasting criteria can result in significant expenses and delays. The reported tests supply blasting stress data on full-scale pipes configured to simulate trenching in close proximity and parallel to an existing pipeline. Two sets of tests have been performed at a location with rock anticipated to be similar to that known to exist along a planned pipeline route. The pipes were instrumented at a number of locations prior to burial. Ground vibrations were recorded using seismographs during each shot. A variety of test blasts were performed, including advancing staggered line shots with delays, grids of charges set off simultaneously to simulate sympathetic detonations , and grids of decked charges. Charge weight ranged from 7.4 to 17.2 lbs/hole at distances from 15 to 25 feet from the pipes.

Measured blasting stresses are compared with predicted values. Data from classic SwRI tests is included for comparison. Appropriate safety factors for close trench blasting based on the test data are considered. Measured stress values from simultaneously detonated lines of charges are compared to predicted values, which are typically of concern when the potential for sympathetic detonation is considered. Neglecting the potential for simultaneous detonations may result in significant error. Also, the measured PPV as a function of the scaled distance and a correlation of the blasting stresses with the measured PPVs are provided.
Use of Advanced Processing Techniques of High Density LiDAR in Place of Survey for Cost and Schedule Reductions on Early Phase Pipeline Projects: Capital Project Results
Authors: Hlady Joseph T. , Parker David
Published: January 2019

In the early phases of a pipeline project, the lack of data available for routing results in multiple routes being considered and interactions with land owners with only a general route. As a consequence, multiple survey programs are undertaken only to collect data that often is not being used, or site revisits are required to collect additional survey data. Repeated visits by survey crews to the field results in considerable cost and schedule delay to the project. A project was undertaken to reduce these costs and schedule impacts by replacing the need for survey work during FEED by utilizing remote sensing data and Artificial Intelligence (AI). This paper outlines the methods for collection of High Density (HD) LiDAR and high resolution imagery and then using AI to automatically identify all above ground features. This technique has proven to provide data of sufficient accuracy and completeness to conduct Pre-FEED and FEED level routing and engineering of a pipeline project. When survey is required, it is only to collect below ground features and to collect or verify data in very specific detail. Additionally, when required for legal or engineering reasons, survey work can be conducted more efficiently by providing the crews with a field database of the features already captured and means for updating the database with the data they collect or verify.
Equipment Impact Rate Assessment Using Bayesian Networks
Authors: Koduru Smitha D. , Lu Dongliang
Published: January 2019

Bayesian networks offer an intuitive method of modelling causal relationships between the triggering events that lead to equipment impact on a pipeline. This method offers an advantage over the more well-known fault-tree methods due to its ability to use Bayesian inference for updating the prior probabilities of triggering events that lead to equipment impact such as, failure of permanent markers, use of one-call system, or failure of right-of-way patrol. In this paper, a modelling approach for a Bayesian network for equipment impact assessment, based on the available fault-tree method, is demonstrated. The advantages of the Bayesian network, such as updating the occurrence rates of basic triggering events and tracking information flow based on partial and incomplete information are illustrated by using the event data available from the damage incident reporting tool (DIRT) of Common Ground Alliance (CGA).
Towards an Acceptable Pipeline Integrity Target Reliability
Authors: Hassanien Sherif , Leblanc Len , Nemeth Alex
Published: January 2019

Integrity reliability analysis is becoming an important component of effective pipeline integrity management systems. It aims at utilizing reliability engineering to address integrity uncertainties and check pipeline reliability measures against safety objectives/targets. In current practice, pipeline safety is typically verified using simplified deterministic procedures based on a safety factor approach that is tailored to the design of new pipes. A more realistic verification of actual safety performance of existing pipelines can be achieved by probabilistic methods where uncertainties of basic random variables are considered and the impact on the reliability of the system is analyzed. To enable such an approach, specification of integrity target reliability levels is required in order to benchmark the safety level of an existing pipeline system. The probability of failure (PoF) per pipeline segment or unit length is quantified and then checked against an integrity permissible probability of failure (PoFp) or integrity target reliability (1-PoFp). This check against a specified reliability target allows the operator to confidently determine whether a segment of pipe is safe at current operating conditions while considering identified uncertainties. However, the main challenge around reliability targets is choosing such targets to begin with.

This paper presents a semi-quantitative validation approach for estimating integrity reliability targets based on calibrating past failure incidents and evaluating PoF at the time of failure. Accounting for both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in assigning the integrity targets, pipeline operators can gauge how to choose such targets and how to be flexible in terms of customizing integrity targets based on their asset performance and adopted integrity programs. A brief summary of published reliability targets in pipeline and non-pipeline industries is presented herein.
Long Term (1970 to 2015) Trending of the Nine Prescriptive Pipeline Threats
Authors: Chen Jenny Jing , Williams Dan , Leewis Keith , Barnum Michael
Published: January 2019

Since the 1970s, the United States Department of Transportation (USDOT) Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) has collected and published pipeline failure incident data. Operators are required to report pipeline incidents and provide the apparent cause of failures. PHMSA and ASME (B31.8S for gas and B31.4 for liquids) identify and group these failures into nine broad categories and sub-classify them into three clusters by their time-based behavior. Technical advancements in pipe manufacturing, fabrication, construction, operation, inspection, monitoring, maintenance, rehabilitation and regulation have resulted in a decrease in incidents for many of these failure causes. This paper presents a statistical trending analysis of the failure incidents for each of the nine threats. The multi-year trending of these incident metrics over the last 40+ years will be demonstrated.
Power Law Analysis Implications of the San Bruno Pipeline Failure
Authors: Oliphant Ken , Bryce Wayne , Luff William
Published: January 2019

When major pipeline incidents occur there is always a question as to how applicable the learnings from that incident are across the industry. To address this question for the San Bruno pipeline failure in 2010, an analysis of historical transmission pipeline industry events was conducted to determine if San Bruno was consistent with past industry performance or whether it was an outlier event. This paper draws on Power Law analysis to generate a characteristic curve of past transmission pipeline accidents in the US. Power Law, or Pareto, behavior has been observed for a wide variety of phenomenon, such as fire damage, earthquake damage and terrorist attacks. The size of these events is seen to follow not the typical normal distribution but the Power Law distribution, where low probability - high consequence (LPHC) events play a more significant role in the overall risk picture. Analysis shows that the consequences of pipeline incidents in a variety of pipeline industries (gas distribution, gas transmission, gas gathering and hazardous liquid pipelines) are seen to exhibit Power Law behavior. The Power Law model is seen to capture the distribution of the size of consequences from pipeline incidents and defines the relationship between the size of an incident and its frequency. Through characterization of these distributions, it is possible to project the likelihood or expected frequency of events of a given magnitude and to assess if a given incident fits within historical industry patterns; i.e. whether the incident is consistent with past observations or is an outlier.

The Power Law analysis shows that the San Bruno incident, which caused eight fatalities and an estimated $380 million in property damage in 2010, is not an outlier. Rather, this incident lies on the Power Law curve for historical transmission pipeline incidents, with an estimated frequency of once every 40 years. The event is consistent with the history of gas transmission pipeline consequences in the US. This paper argues that the San Bruno incident, therefore, provides lessons relevant to the industry as whole.
Root Cause Analysis of 8-Inch FRP Pipeline Failure That Resulted in a Spill and Fire
Authors: Gareau Frank , Tatarov Alex
Published: January 2019

Fibreglass reinforced plastic pipe (FRP) is the second most common type of pipe in the Canadian oil and gas industry, based on installed length. Industry methods to define risks and prevent failures are difficult because industry is still learning how these types of materials fail. Current industry failure records indicate that the failure rates for some of these materials are higher than steel failure rates. Unique details related to a specific FRP failure will be discussed in this paper. This failure occurred on an 8-inch OD FRP pipeline at the bottom of a riser. The failure resulted in a spill and a fire. The reasons for failure and fire initiation were analysed separately.

The failure was a result of a combination of several types of stresses and material degradation. Both static and dynamic stresses contributed to the failure.

• Ground settling resulted in high static bending stress of the last section of the pipeline connected to the riser elbow supported by the anchor.

• The failure was in the last connection of the pipeline. Static tie-in stresses could have contributed to the failure.

• Static stresses were evaluated using Finite Element Analysis (FEA) approach and found to be insufficient for the failure.

• Dynamic stresses contributed to the failure. The failure happened soon after a power outage, when numerous wells were restarted, and several fluid surges may have occurred.

• Material degradation associated with a specific orientation of glass fibres at the connection pup contributed to the failure.

The failure sequence was established and different modes of fire initiation were analysed.
The Integrity of Flexible Steel Line Pipe: A Case History
Authors: Gareau Frank , Tatarov Alex
Published: January 2019

The oil and gas industry would continue to benefit from the successful application of innovative pipeline technologies. A comparison of the installed lengths of line pipe licensed by the Alberta Energy Regulatory (AER) in 2005 and 2012 indicates that composite pipeline systems have increased by 577%; a much higher increase than other types of licensed line pipe materials. The primary driver is to address corrosion that accounts for 68% of the AER-listed pipeline failures. Effective use of new flexible steel line pipe requires application within theoretically acceptable boundaries. A case history will be discussed to highlight some of the boundary conditions for flexible steel composite line pipe. Challenges to successfully use new innovative materials include industry’s ability to characterize the composition of the fluids transported by the pipeline, to characterize the composition of the fluids that permeate through the non-metallic components in some of the composite systems, and to construct systems without damage.
Implementing a Quantitative Geohazard Frequency Analysis Framework as a Component of Risk Assessment of New Pipelines
Authors: Baumgard Alex , Beaupre Michael , Leir Mark
Published: January 2019

In the last 5 years in Canada, regulators have been requesting that new pipeline projects provide quantitative risk management of all credible geohazards involving the proposed pipeline corridor so it can be demonstrated that geohazards are being recognized prioritized and that adequate resources are being allocated and to minimize the impact of adverse consequences of pipeline construction and operation. Complete risk management includes risk analysis that identifies credible geohazards sites, estimates their annual frequency or probability of pipeline failure and, when combined with a consequence of pipeline failure, estimates the risk from each hazard.

This paper presents a framework and methodology that quantitatively estimates the Frequency of Loss of Containment (FLoC) for several types of geohazards that meet the requirements for geohazard identification and frequency analysis components of risk analysis. This framework builds on an international geohazard management framework advanced in the last decade by the Australian Geomechanics Society, British Columbia forestry industry, used in geohazard management programs for operating pipelines and proposed pipeline projects in Canada. The framework provides a repeatable and defensible methodology that is intended to be scalable to accept inputs from feasibility level desktop studies, through field-based observations, and incorporate proposed mitigations. This updated framework was most recently implemented on a proposed large diameter transmission pipeline route crossing the varied terrains of Western Canada, the results of which have been adjusted for Owner confidentiality, but are presented to demonstrate the application of the methodology and the effectiveness of communicating the overall hazard frequency reduction as a result of applying site specific mitigations.
A Practical Approach for Updating and Improving Integrity Management Process Documents
Authors: Lutz Andrew R. , Godfrey John , Maier Clifford , Moreno Pamela , McMahan Tara
Published: January 2019

Pipeline operators of both hazardous liquid and gas pipelines occasionally need to update and improve the process documents within their integrity management programs (e.g. written integrity management plan, risk methodology, etc.). Typically these needs arise in the spirit of continuous improvement (e.g. internal audit findings), or following a large merger or acquisition that requires version consolidation for one or more integrity management process documents.

The authors have identified essential elements that provide a proven approach for successfully updating and improving integrity management process documents, including:

1. Gap Analysis

2. Gap Filling with Stakeholder Involvement

3. Implementation Plan

DNV GL has found these elements can be applied effectively to small scale (e.g. an update of an operator’s in-line inspection process) and large scale updates (e.g. concurrently updating the entire set of integrity management program process documents).

After identifying the process documents for updating, the first element is a gap analysis to identify gaps related to compliance and industry standard practices. The gap analysis may also identify inconsistencies between multiple legacy documents (which is often the case after a merger).

The next element is to fill each of the gaps and resolve each of the inconsistencies identified during the gap analysis. The primary stakeholders for the target process(es) should provide input to this step. Significant changes require increased stakeholder involvement and buy-in. Gap filling concludes with creating revised (or new) integrity management process document(s).

The last element is implementation of the revised (or new) integrity management process document(s). The revised (or new) integrity management process(es) may require the operator to add resources or new expertise to their organization. The implementation plan will identify potential additional resources and/or training requirements. The implementation plan will also identify benchmarks and goals to allow the operator to effectively monitor the implementation of the revised (or new) process and ensure it achieves the intended results.

The following paper explains in detail how to execute each element and provides examples of supporting work materials to efficiently create effective and compliant integrity management process documents.
Socio-Economic Effects Monitoring and Pipelines: Moving Towards a Practical and Project-Specific Framework
Authors: Dowse Susan , Hoyle Meaghan , Card Katherine
Published: January 2019

Socio-economic effects monitoring is emerging as a regulatory requirement and risk management tool in the Canadian pipeline sector. While socio-economic impact assessments have been part of the regulatory landscape for some time, the additional step of socio-economic monitoring beyond the predictions of the assessment, in a parallel fashion with environmental monitoring, has not. Generally, socioeconomic monitoring is a process to track project-related socioeconomic outcomes, to evaluate the effectiveness of mitigation that was designed during the regulatory assessment phase, and to adapt or improve mitigation in order to respond to unanticipated outcomes. Different from mines or industrial facilities that are focused in one geographic area with a long term operating presence, pipelines present unique challenges with respect to socio-economic monitoring. Monitoring of pipeline projects requires an approach that considers the interests of often numerous administrative and geographic jurisdictions and the challenge of data collection over a relatively short-term construction period. These pipeline-specific factors are layered with the challenges associated with all socio-economic monitoring programs related to multiple influences on social and economic outcomes and the challenge of effect attribution. This paper provides an overview of socio-economic monitoring as a requirement in the Canadian pipeline context, and reviews the public domain approaches proposed by various recent project proponents in Canada. This paper ultimately presents a framework for a practical and focused socio-economic monitoring process that is uniquely suitable for the context of major pipeline projects (Pipeline Socio-Economic Monitoring — or P-SEM — Model). The P-SEM model will help Project Managers meet regulatory requirements, improve mitigation, buffer projects from broader socio-economic issues that are beyond their sole control, and create a touch point for engagement with project stakeholders through pipeline construction.
Numerical Investigation of Vertical Penetration of Steel Catenary Riser Near the Touch Down Zone
Authors: Dutta Sujan , Hawlader Bipul , Phillips Ryan , Paulin Mike
Published: January 2019

Steel catenary risers (SCR) are widely used in offshore to transport hydrocarbon from the seabed to floating or fixed platforms. The fatigue life of SCR near the touchdown zone (TDZ) is one of the main design concerns because the risers are often subjected to cyclic loading (vertical penetration/uplift, lateral and axial displacements) from various sources of environmental loadings, such as sea waves and currents. Numerical modeling of the penetration and uplift behaviour of an SCR is a challenging task. Most of the models available in the literature for uplift resistance are empirical, which have been developed mainly from the results of physical experiments.

In this study, numerical simulation of vertical resistance is presented. Analysis is performed using ANSYS CFX software. Strain-softening and strain-rate dependent undrained shear strength behavior of soft clay sediment has been reported by many researchers. Unfortunately, these models were not available in CFX. Numerical simulations presented in this paper are performed implementing this behavior in CFX. Numerical results are compared with available empirical models. The present CFX modeling explains some mechanisms involved in trench formation and suction development during uplift. Factors affecting uplift resistance such as the size and shape of the trench are also discussed from a parametric study.
Assurance Management Implementation Within a Large Organization
Authors: Sporns Ryan , Fader Shireen
Published: January 2019

Assurance Management is an essential aspect of a company’s governance. Assurance management can be defined as the “check” and “act” elements in any management system’s continual improvement cycle and is designed to provide stakeholders with current and accurate information about the adequacy, compliance, and effectiveness of its policies, programs, processes, and activities. An assurance management program may have activities that span beyond a particular management system’s scope, and often incorporates processes completed by various internal and external stakeholder groups. As such, it is vital to have a structured and disciplined approach to assurance management.

Over the past few years, Enbridge Pipeline Inc. Liquid Pipeline Business Unit (Enbridge) has been actively working on the development, implementation, and continual improvement of its Assurance Management Program (AMP) and associated processes, as part of our Integrated Management System (IMS) framework. The alignment of existing processes within a single structured program within Enbridge will provide a more coordinated approach as well as clear accountabilities on assurance functions within the organization. Enbridge’s AMP consists of three layers of “Check” defenses and is linked to core “act” processes in an effort to drive overall continual improvement throughout the organization.

The minimum requirements and considerations in establishing an adequate and effective AMP will be detailed within this paper based on the insight Enbridge has gathered through its journey in the implementation of its program within the organization. The paper will discuss the principles behind our AMP model as well as some of the challenges and successes experienced in implementing the AMP within Enbridge.
Tensile and Compressive Strain Capacity of Pipelines With Corrosion Anomalies
Authors: Zhou Honggang , Liu Ming , Ayton Brent , Bergman Jason , Nanney Steve
Published: January 2019

Strain-based design and assessment (SBDA) methods have been developed to address integrity issues for pipelines subjected to ground movement hazards. The current practice of strain capacity assessment focuses on the tensile rupture of girth welds and compressive buckling of pipes. The integrity management of in-service pipelines often involves assessing pipe segments with anomalies, such as mechanical damage and corrosion. The existing strain capacity models do not yet include the impact of those anomalies.

This paper covers a part of the outcome from a comprehensive research effort aimed at developing assessment procedures for pipelines containing corrosion anomalies and simultaneously subjected to large longitudinal strains. The resistance to tensile rupture and compressive buckling are the focus of the paper. Recommendations for the assessment of strain capacities were provided based on numerical analysis which identified key influencing parameters and controlling mechanisms. Full-scale experimental tests were also conducted to demonstrate the identified mechanisms and evaluate the assessment methods. Both numerical analysis and experimental test results demonstrate that: (1) corrosion anomalies can significantly reduce the tensile strain capacity (TSC) and compressive strain capacity (CSC) of pipes, (2) in addition to the depth and longitudinal length, the circumferential width of the corrosion anomalies has a significant impact on the TSC and CSC of pipes, (3) circumferential-groove corrosion anomalies reduce the tensile strain capacity more than general corrosion anomalies of the same depth and circumferential width, and (4) general corrosion anomalies reduce the compressive strain capacity more than the circumferential-groove anomalies of the same depth and circumferential width. The analysis and experimental test results shown in this paper can support development of SBDA procedures and guidelines of pipelines subjected to large longitudinal strains.
Transitioning a Relative Risk Model to Absolute
Authors: Murray Jake
Published: January 2019

In order to increase the effectiveness of risk-based asset management, pipeline companies require a solution for modeling integrity threats with potential safety and environmental consequences in measureable units. A quantitative model offers the ability to not only prioritize assets for spending on mitigation, but also to identify which are in need of mitigation. When a company is able to estimate its exposure to risk using real units of measure, such as incidents per year and dollars per incident, it is then possible to identify which assets are above the company’s tolerance for risk and make better decisions about spending than the competitors can.

It is recognized that purely quantitative models have a number of advantages over indexed, or relative, models. Managing a risk model becomes easier, as the model is easier to calibrate and discuss when the results are in real, tangible units. It is also easier to disseminate the risk data to business users across the enterprise. With a quantitative model, discussions can occur around actual failure rates and actual costs, as opposed to how severe things are on an abstract, relative scale. Quantitative models lend themselves to greater consistency of results across different field offices and types of assets. Most importantly, as mentioned above, it makes it possible to not only decide which assets are more important to mitigate than others, but also how many require mitigation at all.

Quantitative models can present challenges in development. Numeric equations for calculating rates of failure often rely on inputs which may not be available. Subject matter expert can cloud the transition and make the process overly complicated. Although it is possible to create empirical equations independent of established industry models for threat behavior, in many cases, there is not enough data available to infer relationships between available inputs and failure rates. As the risk model changes from reporting to scores to reporting in units (e.g. number of fatalities), this may cause some apprehension for legal and management; some education may be necessary to overcome this. It is also important to note that the added complexity and uniqueness of the model may stretch the capabilities of the current IT and software infrastructure supporting the legacy risk model.

The focus of this paper is to outline an approach to making the transition from an indexed or relative risk assessment method to an absolute, quantitative method. This includes strategies identified while attempting to convert various threat calculations, using inputs already being gathered for the existing model. The paper will conclude with some challenges, lessons learned, and ways to identify future recommended improvements.
Structure-specific photoluminescence of ZnGa2O4:Eu3+ thin films deposited on sapphire C-plane substrates
Authors: Akazawa Housei
Published: January 2019

1 at. % Eu3+-doped ZnGa2O4 (ZnGa2O4:Eu) thin films were deposited on sapphire C-plane substrates by dual-target sputtering, and the correlation between their crystal structures and luminescent properties was investigated. When deposition was carried out with H2O vapor as the oxygen source gas and subsequently postannealing was done in vacuum, the ZnGa2O4:Eu films consisted of randomly oriented polycrystals. In contrast, ZnGa2O4:Eu films deposited with O2 consisted of (111)-oriented crystallites. The crystallites were epitaxial after postannealing at above 400 °C. At intermediate annealing temperatures between 250 and 400 °C, Ga2O3 and GaO(OH) precipitated as impurity phases with (111)-oriented ZnGa2O4. Upon excitation at 325 nm, the Eu3+ emission intensities from the randomly oriented ZnGa2O4:Eu films were comparable to those of the epitaxial films. The epitaxial films exhibited only the 5D0 → 7F2 transition signal, whereas the randomly oriented polycrystalline films showed considerable emissions from the 5D0 → 7F4 transition as well as 5D0 → 7F2. Furthermore, the emission signal width of the 5D0 → 7F2 transition was narrower for the epitaxial films compared with the polycrystalline films. Such different emission characteristics can be explained from the viewpoint that the single crystal structure allows Eu3+ ions to occupy only a limited number of sites, whereas randomly oriented polycrystalline crystallites formed by incorporating H+ and OH− species have abundant grain boundaries, and defect sites enable larger numbers of structurally and chemically different emission-active sites to hold Eu3+ ions.
In Vitro
Activity of Iclaprim against Isolates in Two Phase 3 Clinical Trials (REVIVE-1 and -2) for Acute Bacterial Skin and Skin Structure Infections
Authors: Noviello Stephanie , Magnet Sophie , Hawser Stephen , Huang David B.
Published: January 2019

Iclaprim, a selective bacterial dihydrofolate reductase inhibitor, and other antibiotics were tested against Gram-positive isolates from two phase 3 studies of acute bacterial skin and skin structure infections (ABSSSIs) (REVIVE-1 and -2). Seven hundred ninety baseline isolates, including
Staphylococcus aureus
, β-hemolytic streptococci, and
Streptococcus anginosus
group, underwent antibacterial susceptibility testing.
Cg
Hog1-Mediated
Cg
Rds2 Phosphorylation Alters Glycerophospholipid Composition To Coordinate Osmotic Stress in
Candida glabrata
Authors: Wu Chengjin , Zhang Jiali , Zhu Guoxing , Yao Rui , Chen Xiulai , Liu Liming
Published: January 2019

This study explored the role of
Cg
Hog1-mediated
Cg
Rds2 phosphorylation in response to osmotic stress in
Candida glabrata
.
Cg
Hog1 interacts with and phosphorylates
Cg
Rds2, a zinc cluster transcription factor, under osmotic stress. Phosphorylated
Cg
Rds2 plays an important role in increasing glycerophospholipid composition and membrane integrity, thereby enhancing cell growth and survival.
Evaluation of the Accelerate Pheno System for Identification of
Acinetobacter
Clinical Isolates and Minocycline Susceptibility Testing
Authors: Bowler Sarah L. , Towne Justin W. , Humphries Romney M. , Doi Yohei
Published: January 2019

The Accelerate Pheno system (AXDX) is a rapid phenotypic bacterial identification and susceptibility testing system which is approved for use with positive blood cultures.
Acinetobacter baumannii
is a nosocomial pathogen for which the limited treatment options include minocycline in the case of multidrug resistance.
Commensal Bacteria: Not Just Innocent Bystanders
Authors: Apicella Michael A.
Published: January 2019

Neisseria gonorrhoeae
is quickly becoming untreatable due to its acquisition of resistance to multiple antimicrobials. It is vital that we begin to understand the mechanisms by which this is occurring.
Mobile Compensatory Mutations Promote Plasmid Survival
Authors: Zwanzig Martin , Harrison Ellie , Brockhurst Michael A. , Hall James P. J. , Berendonk Thomas U. , Berger Uta
Published: January 2019

Understanding the evolutionary forces that maintain antibiotic resistance genes in a population, especially when antibiotics are not used, is an important problem for human health and society. The most common platform for the dissemination of antibiotic resistance genes is conjugative plasmids. Experimental studies showed that mutations located on the plasmid or the bacterial chromosome can reduce the costs plasmids impose on their hosts, resulting in antibiotic resistance plasmids being maintained even in the absence of antibiotics. While chromosomal mutations are only vertically inherited by the daughter cells, plasmid mutations are also provided to bacteria that acquire the plasmid through conjugation. Here we demonstrate how the mode of inheritance of a compensatory mutation crucially influences the ability of plasmids to spread and persist in a bacterial population.
Large cell neuroendocrine carcinoma of the uterine cervix
Authors: Habeeb Amir , Habeeb Hany
Published: January 2019

We report a case of large cell neuroendocrine carcinoma of the uterine cervix. A 33-year-old woman presented with a 4-month history of irregular vaginal bleeding and suspicious cervix. Transvaginal ultrasound showed a 3×3.8 cm cervical mass with a marked increase in the blood flow. MRI pelvis showed an exophytic tumour with left external iliac lymph node metastasis. Immunohistochemistry of the tumour cells showed strong positivity for the neuroendocrine markers synaptophysin and a very high Ki67 proliferation index. A diagnosis of high-grade large cell neuroendocrine carcinoma of the uterine cervix was made with FIGO stage IIA2. She was treated with chemotherapy and palliative radiotherapy but died 21 months after presenting. Neuroendocrine tumour of the uterine cervix is an extremely aggressive cancer with the late presentation—the need for a more rigorous treatment protocol as well as potential screening methods could improve outcomes for these patients.
Pharmacokinetic-guided dosing of factor VIII concentrate in a morbidly obese severe haemophilia A patient undergoing orthopaedic surgery
Authors: Preijers Tim , Laros-vanGorkom Britta AP , Mathôt Ron AA , Cnossen Marjon H
Published: January 2019

A 58-year-old morbidly obese male (body mass index: 38 kg/m2) with severe haemophilia A underwent total knee replacement surgery. Perioperatively, factor VIII (FVIII) levels were measured daily and maximuma posteriori(MAP) Bayesian estimation was used to calculate the individual pharmacokinetic (PK) parameters and doses required to obtain prescribed FVIII target levels. In the MAP Bayesian procedure, a population PK model was used in which PK parameters were normalised using body weight. In this specific case, ideal body weight was used to scale the PK parameters instead of actual body weight. Except for the preoperative FVIII level, adequate FVIII levels were achieved during the 10-day perioperative period. During follow-up visits, the knee prosthesis was reported to function adequately.
Chronic cough in a patient with stable ulcerative colitis: a rare but important extraintestinal manifestation of inflammatory bowel disease
Authors: Chad Thomas , Brown Jeremy
Published: January 2019

A 74-year-old woman presented to her general practitioner with cough and occasional sputum production. Having failed to respond to courses of antibiotics in the community, she was referred to the thoracic medicine clinic. High-resolution CT chest revealed cylindrical bronchiectasis predominantly in the right lower lobe. Lung function revealed preserved FEV1and FVC but reduced gas transfer values. Bronchiectasis secondary to ulcerative colitis was diagnosed. Inhaled corticosteroid therapy was initiated, with good clinical response noted at 6 monthly follow-up. Remission was sustained with tapering of the steroid dose. Recognition of respiratory complications in cases of inflammatory bowel disease is likely still poor among clinicians. Although rare, a working knowledge of principles of investigation and management will aid timely diagnosis and treatment, potentially preventing progression of respiratory disease.
The blinding bug found in the eye
Authors: Agarwal Manisha , Paul Lagan , Gupta Chanda , Rani Padmaja Kumari
Published: January 2019

Tubercular uveitis is a common manifestation of tuberculosis (TB) in TB-endemic countries. Due to lack of gold standard diagnostic tests for confirming intraocular TB, it is often either underdiagnosed or rarely over diagnosed. We report a case of a 28-year-old woman with diminution of vision in the left eye. She was started on antitubercular treatment (ATT) and steroids but she did not comply with the treatment. She developed progressive painful loss of vision consequently and was treated with vitrectomy and silicone oil tamponade. After a complete course of ATT, she recovered, salvaging of eye and restoration of some vision was possible. Mycobacterium tuberculosis is rarely demonstrated in the ocular fluid samples of the suspected cases of TB due to the paucibacillary nature of the disease. A vitreous sample can be obtained from these patients. Surgical intervention in the form of vitrectomy and silicone oil tamponade can help in avoiding enucleation/evisceration.
Chronic lymphocytic leukaemia masquerading as a labial lump
Authors: Lim Wei How , Mayson Eleni , Lamaro Vincent P
Published: January 2019

We report a case of an 82-year-old woman who presented with a 2-week history of a left labial lump. She had a history of chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) for several years and remained stable without clinical evidence of disease progression. She was observed with regular blood tests and clinical assessment. She was hypogammaglobulinaemic from the CLL and due to frequent symptomatic infections requiring hospitalisation, was commenced on monthly intravenous immunoglobulin. A tissue biopsy of the labial lump confirmed involved CLL in the genital area and further investigations and management followed.
Paediatric case of peripapillary choroidal neovascularisation associated with optic disc drusen treated with aflibercept
Authors: Gan Weh Loong , Long Vernon W
Published: January 2019

Peripapillary choroidal neovascularisation (PPCNV) associated with optic disc drusen is a rare complication that can result in severe vision impairment in children. We report the first case of paediatric PPCNV secondary to optic disc drusen successfully treated with intravitreal aflibercept. A 6-year-old girl presented with a one week history of reduced vision in her right eye with best-corrected visual acuity of 20/500. Fundus examination revealed bilateral elevated discs with a peripapillary pigmentary lesion in the right eye. Optical coherence tomography of the right eye showed marked subfoveal fluid. Both B-scan ultrasonography and fundus autofluorescence demonstrated findings consistent with optic disc drusen. Diagnosis of PPCNV was further confirmed on fluorescein fundus angiography. The child received three intravitreal aflibercept injections with complete resolution of the subfoveal fluid. Her visual acuity improved to 20/25 with no recurrence at a 16-month follow-up. No adverse side effects were reported.