bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Water saving through international trade of agricultural products
Authors: Chapagain A. K. , Hoekstra A. Y. , Savenije H. H. G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Many nations save domestic water resources by importing water-intensive products and exporting commodities that are less water intensive. National water saving through the import of a product can imply saving water at a global level if the flow is from sites with high to sites with low water productivity. The paper analyses the consequences of international virtual water flows on the global and national water budgets. The assessment shows that the total amount of water that would have been required in the importing countries if all imported agricultural products would have been produced domestically is 1605 Gm3/yr. These products are however being produced with only 1253 Gm3/yr in the exporting countries, saving global water resources by 352 Gm3/yr. This saving is 28% of the international virtual water flows related to the trade of agricultural products and 6% of the global water use in agriculture. National policy makers are however not interested in global water savings but in the status of national water resources. Egypt imports wheat and in doing so saves 3.6 Gm3/yr of its national water resources. Water use for producing export commodities can be beneficial, as for instance in Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana and Brazil, where the use of green water resources (mainly through rain-fed agriculture) for the production of stimulant crops for export has a positive economic impact on the national economy. However, export of 28 Gm3/yr of national water from Thailand related to rice export is at the cost of additional pressure on its blue water resources. Importing a product which has a relatively high ratio of green to blue virtual water content saves global blue water resources that generally have a higher opportunity cost than green water.
Experimental study using coir geotextiles in watershed management
Authors: Vishnudas S. , Savenije H. H. G. , van der Zaag P. , Anil K. R. , Balan K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper presents the results of a field experiment conducted in Kerala, South India, to test the effectiveness of coir geotextiles for embankment protection. In the context of sustainable watershed management, coir is a cheap and locally available material that can be used to strengthen traditional earthen bunds or protect the banks of village ponds from erosion. Particularly in developing countries, where coir is abundantly available and textiles can be produced by small-scale industry, this is an attractive alternative for conventional methods.
Model-based analysis of nutrient retention and management for a lowland river
Authors: Kneis D. , Knoesche R. , Bronstert A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the context of the European Water Framework Directive options for improving the water quality of the lowland river Havel (Germany) were assessed. The lower section of this river is actually a polytrophic river-lake system suffering from high external nutrient loading and exhibiting significant in-river turnover. In order to gain a better understanding of present conditions and to allow integrated scenarios of nutrient management to be evaluated the catchment models SWIM and ArcEGMO-Urban were coupled with a simple, newly developed nutrient TRAnsport Model (TraM). Using the TraM model, the retention of nitrogen and phosphorus in a 55 km reach of the Lower Havel River was quantified and its temporal variation was analyzed. It was examined that about 30% of the external nitrogen input to the Lower Havel is retained within the surveyed river section. A comparison of simulation results generated with and without consideration of phosphorus retention/release revealed that summer TP concentrations are currently increased by 100–200% due to internal loading. Net phosphorus release rates of about 20 mg P m−2 d-1 in late summer were estimated for the Havel lakes. Scenario simulations with lowered external nutrient inputs revealed that persistent phosphorus limitation of primary production cannot be established within the next decade. It was shown that a further reduction in nitrogen concentrations requires emissions to be reduced in all inflows. Though the TraM model needs further extension it proved to be appropriate for conducting integrated catchment and river modeling.
Inverse distributed hydrological modelling of alpine catchments
Authors: Kunstmann H. , Krause J. , Mayr S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Even in physically based distributed hydrological models, various remaining parameters must be estimated for each sub-catchment. This can involve tremendous effort, especially when the number of sub-catchments is large and the applied hydrological model is computationally expensive. Automatic parameter estimation tools can significantly facilitate the calibration process. Hence, we combined the nonlinear parameter estimation tool PEST with the distributed hydrological model WaSiM. PEST is based on the Gauss-Marquardt-Levenberg method, a gradient-based nonlinear parameter estimation algorithm. WaSiM is a fully distributed hydrological model using physically based algorithms for most of the process descriptions. WaSiM was applied to the alpine/prealpine Ammer River catchment (southern Germany, 710 km2) in a 100×100 m2 horizontal resolution. The catchment is heterogeneous in terms of geology, pedology and land use and shows a complex orography (the difference of elevation is around 1600 m). Using the developed PEST-WaSiM interface, the hydrological model was calibrated by comparing simulated and observed runoff at eight gauges for the hydrologic year 1997 and validated for the hydrologic year 1993. For each sub-catchment four parameters had to be calibrated: the recession constants of direct runoff and interflow, the drainage density, and the hydraulic conductivity of the uppermost aquifer. Additionally, five snowmelt specific parameters were adjusted for the entire catchment. Altogether, 37 parameters had to be calibrated. Additional a priori information (e.g. from flood hydrograph analysis) narrowed the parameter space of the solutions and improved the non-uniqueness of the fitted values. A reasonable quality of fit was achieved. Discrepancies between modelled and observed runoff were also due to the small number of meteorological stations and corresponding interpolation artefacts in the orographically complex terrain. A detailed covariance analysis was performed allowing to derive confidence bounds for all estimated parameters. The correlation between the estimated parameters was in most cases negligible, showing that parameters were estimated independently from each other.
A Bayesian decision approach to rainfall thresholds based flood warning
Authors: Martina M. L. V. , Todini E. , Libralon A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Operational real time flood forecasting systems generally require a hydrological model to run in real time as well as a series of hydro-informatics tools to transform the flood forecast into relatively simple and clear messages to the decision makers involved in flood defense. The scope of this paper is to set forth the possibility of providing flood warnings at given river sections based on the direct comparison of the quantitative precipitation forecast with critical rainfall threshold values, without the need of an on-line real time forecasting system. This approach leads to an extremely simplified alert system to be used by non technical stakeholders and could also be used to supplement the traditional flood forecasting systems in case of system failures. The critical rainfall threshold values, incorporating the soil moisture initial conditions, result from statistical analyzes using long hydrological time series combined with a Bayesian utility function minimization. In the paper, results of an application of the proposed methodology to the Sieve river, a tributary of the Arno river in Italy, are given to exemplify its practical applicability.
Throughfall and temporal trends of rainfall redistribution in an open tropical rainforest, south-western Amazonia (Rondônia, Brazil)
Authors: Germer S. , Elsenbeer H. , Moraes J. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Throughfall volumes and incident rainfall were measured between 23 August and 2 December 2004 as well as from 6 January to 15 April 2005 for individual rain events of differing intensities and magnitudes in an open tropical rainforest in Rondônia, Brazil. Temporal patterns of throughfall spatial variability were examined. Estimated interception losses were compared to modeled interception losses obtained by applying the revised Gash model in order to identify sources of throughfall variability in open tropical rainforests. Gross precipitation of 97 events amounted to 1309 mm, 89±5.6% (S.E.) of which reached the forest floor as throughfall. The redistribution of water within the canopy was highly variable in time, which we attribute to the high density of babassu palms (Orbignya phalerata), their seasonal leaf growth, and their conducive morphology. We identified a 10-min rainfall intensity threshold of 30 mm h−1 above which interception losses were highly variable. This variability is amplified by funneling and shading effects of palms. This interaction between a rainfall variable and vegetation characteristics is relevant for understanding the hydrology of all tropical rainforests with a high palm density.
Groundwater compartmentalisation: a geochemical analysis of the structural controls on the subdivision of a major aquifer, the Sherwood Sandstone, Merseyside, UK
Authors: Mohamed E. A. , Worden R. H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The study was initiated to assess the local groundwater flow, the extent of seawater invasion and the controls on recharge in the aquifer and to try to understand whether the aquifer is broken into discrete compartments. The study area is located in the northwest of England and encompasses the urban area of Liverpool and surrounding countryside and extends east-west from Liverpool to Widnes and as far north as Formby. The Irish Sea marks the western margin of the area while the Mersey estuary defines the southern margin. The Triassic sandstone in this area has been, and remains, an important aquifer although industrialisation and groundwater exploitation have led to significant water quality problems. Maps of water table for the years 1993, 1997, 2000 and 2002 and schematic cross-sections of the water table height along the faults were prepared to trace any effect of these faults on water table height across. Studying the water table maps and cross sections revealed that: 1) there are substantial differences in water table height across some of the NNW-SSE trending faults implying that groundwater flow is strongly limited by fault, 2) an anticline in the east of the area acts as a groundwater divide and 3) the water table seems to follow the topography in some places, although steep changes in water table occur across faults showings that they locally control the water table elevation. The aquifer was thus provisionally subdivided into several hydrogeological sub-basins based on water table height patterns and the occurrence of major structural features (faults and a fold). Using groundwater geochemistry data, contour maps of chloride and sulphate concentration largely support the structural sub-division of the area into hydrogeological sub-basins. Scrutiny of groundwater geochemical data, averaged for each sub-basin, confirmed the degree of compartmentalisation and the occurrence of sealed faults. The variation of the geochemical composition of the groundwater not only relates to the different, localised geochemical processes and seawater intrusion but also relate to compartmentalisation due to faulting. Faults have limited the degree of mixing between the groundwater types thus retaining the specific characteristics of each sub-basin. Highly localised seawater intrusion is mainly controlled by low permeability fault close to the Irish Sea and Mersey estuary. There is no effectively no invasion of seawater beyond the faults that lie closest to the coastline. Freshwater recharge to the aquifer must be highly localised and will mainly occur by vertical percolation of rain and surface water rather than whole aquifer-scale groundwater flow.
A fast TDR-inversion technique for the reconstruction of spatial soil moisture content
Authors: Schlaeger S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Spatial moisture distribution in natural soil or other material is a valuably information for many applications. Standard measurement techniques give only mean or pointwise results. Therefore a new inversion algorithm has been developed to derive moisture profiles along single TDR sensor-probes. The algorithm uses the full information content of TDR reflection data measured from one or both sides of an embedded probe. The system consisting of sensor probe and surrounded soil can be interpreted as a nonuniform transmission-line. The algorithm is based on the telegraph equations for nonuniform transmission-lines and an optimization approach to reconstruct the distribution of the capacitance and effective conductance along the transmission-line with high spatial resolution. The capacitance distribution can be converted into permittivity and water content by means of a capacitance model and dielectric mixing rules. Numerical investigations have been carried out to verify the accuracy of the inversion algorithm. Single- and double-sided time-domain reflection data were used to determine the capacitance and effective conductance profiles of lossless and lossy soils. The results show that single-sided reflection data are sufficient for lossless (or low-loss) cases. In case of lossy material two independent reflection measurements are required to reconstruct a reliable soil moisture profile. The inclusion of an additional effective conductivity profile leads to an improved capacitance profile. The algorithm converges very fast and yields a capacitance profile within a sufficiently short time. The additional transformation to the water content requires no significant calculation time.
Virtual water highway: water use efficiency in global food trade
Authors: Yang H. , Wang L. , Abbaspour K. C. , Zehnder A. J. B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Amid an increasing water scarcity in many parts of the world, virtual water trade as both a policy instrument and practical means to balance the regional, national and global water budget has received much attention in recent years. Built upon the knowledge of virtual water accounting in the literature, this study examines the efficiency of the resource use embodied in the global virtual water trade from the perspectives of exporting and importing countries. Different characteristics between "green" and "blue" virtual water corresponding to rainfed and irrigated agriculture are elaborated. The investigation reveals that the virtual water flows primarily from countries of high water productivity to countries of low water productivity, generating a global saving of water resources. Meanwhile, the domination of green virtual water in the total virtual water trade constitutes low opportunity costs and environmental impacts as opposed to blue virtual water. The results suggest efficiency gains in the global food trade in terms of water resource utilization. The study raises awareness of negative impacts of increasing reliance on irrigation for food production in many countries, including food exporting countries. The findings of the study call for a greater emphasis on rainfed agriculture to improve global food security and environmental sustainability.
Effects of vegetation patterns on yields of the surface and subsurface waters in the Heishui Alpine Valley in west China
Authors: Liu Y. , An S. , Deng Z. , Fan N. , Yang H. , Wang Z. , Zhi Y. , Zhou C. , Liu S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The relationships between different vegetation types and water yields were investigated in the Heishui Valley of the upper Yangtze River in western China. Contributions of groundwater and the water from surface and subsurface in different tributaries were, respectively, computed based on the stable isotope data, while the percentages of different vegetation covers were achieved by remote sensing in landscape scale. Based on the relationships between different vegetation types and water yields in seven watersheds, we found that reduction in the total vegetation, forest and subalpine coniferous forest covers could cause increasing in surface and subsurface water yields, while the water yield increased with the alpine shrub and meadow cover increasing, respectively. All the relationships were displayed as the low altitude and high altitude patterns, which were caused by the different vegetation characteristics and topography. We also found effects of the total vegetation cover played the most important role on water yield at large scale while the coniferous forest cover would affect the water yield at relatively small scale.
Pattern dynamics, pattern hierarchies, and forecasting in complex multi-scale earth systems
Authors: Rundle J. B. , Turcotte D. L. , Rundle P. B. , Yakovlev G. , Shcherbakov R. , Donnellan A. , Klein W.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Catastrophic disasters afflicting human society are often triggered by tsunamis, earthquakes, widespread flooding, and weather and climate events. As human populations increasingly move into geographic areas affected by these earth system hazards, forecasting the onset of these large and damaging events has become increasingly urgent. In this paper we consider the fundamental problem of forecasting in complex multi-scale earth systems when the basic dynamical variables are either unobservable or incompletely observed. In such cases, the forecaster must rely on incompletely determined, but "tunable" models to interpret observable space-time patterns of events. The sequence of observable patterns constitute an apparent pattern dynamics, which is related to the underlying but hidden Newtonian dynamics by a complex dimensional reduction process. As an example, we examine the problem of earthquakes, which must utilize current and past observations of observables such as seismicity and surface strain to produce forecasts of future activity. We show that numerical simulations of earthquake fault systems are needed in order to relate the fundamentally unobservable nonlinear dynamics to the readily observable pattern dynamics. We also show that the space-time patterns produced by the simulations lead to a scale-invariant hierarchy of patterns, similar to other nonlinear systems. We point out that a similar program of simulations has been very successful in weather forecasting, in which current and past observations of weather patterns are routinely extrapolated forward in time via numerical simulations in order to forecast future weather patterns.
Calibration of hydrological model parameters for ungauged catchments
Authors: Bárdossy A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The parameters of hydrological models for catchments with few or no discharge records can only be estimated using regional information. One can assume that catchments with similar characteristics show a similar hydrological behaviour and thus can be modeled using similar model parameters. Therefore a regionalisation of the hydrological model parameters on the basis of catchment characteristics is plausible. However, due to the non-uniqueness of the rainfall-runoff model parameters (equifinality), a workflow of regional parameter estimation by model calibration and a subsequent fit of a regional function is not appropriate. In this paper a different approach for the transfer of entire parameter sets from one catchment to another is discussed. Transferable parameter sets are identified using regional statistics: means and variances of annual discharges estimated from catchment properties and annual climate statistics.
Scaling effect for estimating soil loss in the RUSLE model using remotely sensed geospatial data in Korea
Authors: Lee G.-S. , Lee K.-H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Accurate estimation of soil loss/deposition forced by rainfall events plays a major role in water resources management and it directly affects the quality of agricultural land and water storage capacity in reservoirs. In this paper, the soil loss model, Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was used to quantify soil loss in a small basin located in southern part of Korea. The surface characteristics, such as soil texture, elevation, and vegetation type, are needed to run the RUSLE model. Remotely sensed geospatial data has been successfully used to derive suitable model factors for this purpose. It is, however, difficult to select the grid size of elements for the best fit, which is, often, decided in a subjective and intuitive way. A GIS spatial analysis was performed to investigate the scaling effect for estimating soil loss in the RUSLE model using the remotely sensed geospatial data. The results show that the L- and S- factors are sensitive to the grid size and the optimal resolution to quantify soil loss in the RUSLE model for the study site is 125 m. This approach presents a method to select the suitable scale for estimating soil loss using the remotely sensed geospatial data and eventually improve the prediction of soil loss in a basin scale.
Exploratory data analysis and clustering of multivariate spatial hydrogeological data by means of GEO3DSOM, a variant of Kohonen’s Self-Organizing Map
Authors: Peeters L. , Bação F. , Lobo V. , Dassargues A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The use of unsupervised artificial neural network techniques like the self-organizing map (SOM) algorithm has proven to be a useful tool in exploratory data analysis and clustering of multivariate data sets. In this study a variant of the SOM-algorithm is proposed, the GEO3DSOM, capable of explicitly incorporating three-dimensional spatial knowledge into the algorithm. The performance of the GEO3DSOM is compared to the performance of the standard SOM in analyzing an artificial data set and a hydrochemical data set. The hydrochemical data set consists of 141 groundwater samples collected in two detritic, phreatic, Cenozoic aquifers in Central Belgium. The standard SOM proves to be more adequate in representing the structure of the data set and to explore relationships between variables. The GEO3DSOM on the other hand performs better in creating spatially coherent groups based on the data.
Abrupt change in climate and climate models
Authors: Pitman A. J. , Stouffer R. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. First, we review the evidence that abrupt climate changes have occurred in the past and then demonstrate that climate models have developing capacity to simulate many of these changes. In particular, the processes by which changes in the ocean circulation drive abrupt changes appear to be captured by climate models to a degree that is encouraging. The evidence that past changes in the ocean have driven abrupt change in terrestrial systems is also convincing, but these processes are only just beginning to be included in climate models. Second, we explore the likelihood that climate models can capture those abrupt changes in climate that may occur in the future due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. We note that existing evidence indicates that a major collapse of the thermohaline circulate seems unlikely in the 21st century, although very recent evidence suggests that a weakening may already be underway. We have confidence that current climate models can capture a weakening, but a collapse of the thermohaline circulation in the 21st century is not projected by climate models. Worrying evidence of instability in terrestrial carbon, from observations and modelling studies, is beginning to accumulate. Current climate models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for the 4th Assessment Report do not include these terrestrial carbon processes. We therefore can not make statements with any confidence regarding these changes. At present, the scale of the terrestrial carbon feedback is believed to be small enough that it does not significantly affect projections of warming during the first half of the 21st century. However, the uncertainties in how biological systems will respond to warming are sufficiently large to undermine confidence in this belief and point us to areas requiring significant additional work.
Constructal theory of pattern formation
Authors: Bejan A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This review article shows that the occurrence of macroscopic flow configuration is a universal natural phenomenon that can be explained and predicted on the basis of a principle of physics (the constructal law): "For a flow system to persist in time (to survive) it must evolve in such a way that it provides easier and easier access to the currents that flow through it". The examples given in this article come from natural inanimate flow systems with configuration: duct cross-sections, open channel cross-sections, tree-shaped flow architectures, and turbulent flow structure (e.g., eddies, laminar lengths before transition). Other examples that are treated in the literature, and which support the constructal law, are wedge-shape of turbulent shear layers, jets and plumes, the frequency of vortex shedding, Bénard convection in fluids and fluid-saturated porous media, dendritic solidification, the coalescence of solid parcels suspended in a flow, global atmospheric and oceanic circulation and climate, and virtually all architectural features of animal design. The constructal law stresses the importance of reserving a place for pure theory in research, and for constantly searching for new physics – new summarizing principles that are general, hence useful.
Classification of heterogeneous precipitation fields for the assessment and possible improvement of lumped neural network models for streamflow forecasts
Authors: Lauzon N. , Anctil F. , Baxter C. W.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This work addresses the issue of better considering the heterogeneity of precipitation fields within lumped rainfall-runoff models where only areal mean precipitation is usually used as an input. A method using a Kohonen neural network is proposed for the classification of precipitation fields. The evaluation and improvement of the performance of a lumped rainfall-runoff model for one-day ahead predictions is then established based on this classification. Multilayer perceptron neural networks are employed as lumped rainfall-runoff models. The Bas-en-Basset watershed in France, which is equipped with 23 rain gauges with data for a 21-year period, is employed as the application case. The results demonstrate the relevance of the proposed classification method, which produces groups of precipitation fields that are in agreement with the global climatological features affecting the region, as well as with the topographic constraints of the watershed (i.e., orography). The strengths and weaknesses of the rainfall-runoff models are highlighted by the analysis of their performance vis-à-vis the classification of precipitation fields. The results also show the capability of multilayer perceptron neural networks to account for the heterogeneity of precipitation, even when built as lumped rainfall-runoff models.
CCA transport in soil from treated-timber posts: pattern dynamics from the local to regional scale
Authors: Clothier B. E. , Green S. R. , Vogeler I. , Greven M. M. , Agnew R. , van den Dijssel C. W. , Neal S. , Robinson B. H. , Davidson P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Winegrape growing in many parts of the world, including Marlborough, New Zealand, uses treated-timber posts to act as supports for the grapevine's canopy. At a density of 580 posts per hectare, the H4-process treated supports result in an areal loading of CCA of: Copper (12 kg-Cu ha−1), Chromium (21 kg-Cr ha−1) and Arsenic (17 kg-As ha−1). Arsenic is the most mobile and toxic of the CCA-treatment cocktail. We describe experiments which indicate that about 4–6 mg-As month−1 post−1 is released from the subterranean part of the post. We have used SPASMO (Soil Plant Atmosphere System Model) to predict post-to-soil leakage, as well as the pattern dynamics of leaching and exchange around the post. Locally the pattern dynamics of transport and fate are controlled by the soil's chemical characteristics and the prevailing weather. Over its 20-year lifetime, the concentration of arsenic, both that adsorbed on the soil and in the soil solution, exceeds guideline values for soils (100 mg-As kg−1) and drinking water (10 μg-As L−1). Under a regime of 5% annual replacement of posts, the spatially averaged concentration of arsenic leaching through the soil is predicted to rise to 1.25 to 1.7 times the drinking water standard, depending only slightly on the soil type. The steady value is primarily controlled by the arsenic-release rate from the post. These steady values were used in a simple hydrogeological model of the major Marlborough aquifer systems to determine whether the subterranean flow of water could dilute the descending plumes of arsenic coming from above. Except for the sluggish aquifers of the southern valleys in Marlborough, most of the aquifer systems seem capable of diluting the leachate to between one tenth and one twentieth of the drinking water standard. The upscaling of our modelling of the local pattern dynamics spanned six orders of spatial magnitude, and four orders of time dimension.
Effect of spatial distribution of daily rainfall on interior catchment response of a distributed hydrological model
Authors: Schuurmans J. M. , Bierkens M. F. P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We investigate the effect of spatial variability of daily rainfall on soil moisture, groundwater level and discharge using a physically-based, fully-distributed hydrological model. We focus on the effect of rainfall spatial variability on day-to-day variability of the interior catchment response, as well as on its effect on the general hydrological behavior of the catchment. The study is performed in a flat rural catchment (135 km2) in The Netherlands, where climate is semi-humid (average precipitation 800 mm/year, evapotranspiration 550 mm/year) and rainfall is predominantly stratiform. Both range-corrected radar data (resolution 2.5×2.5 km2) as well as data from a dense network of 30 raingauges are used, observed for the period March–October 2004. Eight different rainfall scenarios, either spatially distributed or spatially uniform, are used as input for the hydrological model. The main conclusions from this study are: (i) using a single raingauge as rainfall input carries a great risk for the prediction of discharge, groundwater level and soil moisture, especially if the raingauge is situated outside the catchment; (ii) taking into account the spatial variability of rainfall instead of using areal average rainfall as input for the model is needed to get insight into the day-to-day spatial variability of discharge, groundwater level and soil moisture content; (iii) to get insight into the general behavior of the hydrological system it is sufficient to use correct predictions of areal average rainfall over the catchment.
Fuzzy set approach to calibrating distributed flood inundation models using remote sensing observations
Authors: Pappenberger F. , Frodsham K. , Beven K. , Romanowicz R. , Matgen P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The paper presents a methodology for the estimation of uncertainty of inundation extent, which takes account of the uncertainty in the observed spatially distributed information and implements a fuzzy evaluation methodology. The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) technique and the 2-D LISFLOOD-FP model were applied to derive the set of uncertain inundation realisations and resulting flood inundation maps. Conditioning of the inundation maps on fuzzified Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images results in much more realistic inundation risk maps which can better depict the variable pattern of inundation extent than previously used methods. It has been shown that the methodology compares well to traditional approaches and can produce flood hazard maps that reflect the uncertainties in model evaluation.
Dynamics of resource production and utilisation in two-component biosphere-human and terrestrial carbon systems
Authors: Raupach M. R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper analyses simple models for "production-utilisation" systems, reduced to two state variables for producers and utilisers, respectively. Two modes are distinguished: in "harvester" systems the resource utilisation involves active seeking on the part of the utilisers, while in "processor" systems, utilisers function as passive material processors. An idealised model of biosphere-human interactions provides an example of a harvester system, and a model of plant and soil carbon dynamics exemplifies a processor system. The biosphere-human interaction model exhibits a number of features in accord with experience, including a tendency towards oscillatory behaviour which in some circumstances results in limit cycles. The plant-soil carbon model is used to study the effect of random forcing of production (for example by weather and climate fluctuations), showing that with appropriate parameter choices the model can flip between active-biosphere and dormant-biosphere equilibria under the influence of random forcing. This externally-driven transition between locally stable states is fundamentally different from Lorenzian chaos. A basic behavioural difference between processor and harvester forms of producer-utiliser system is that harvester systems tend toward oscillatory behaviour (though they do not always do so), while processor systems do not have this tendency.
Uncertainties associated with digital elevation models for hydrologic applications: a review
Authors: Wechsler S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Digital elevation models (DEMs) represent the topography that drives surface flow and are arguably one of the more important data sources for deriving variables used by numerous hydrologic models. A considerable amount of research has been conducted to address uncertainty associated with error in digital elevation models (DEMs) and the propagation of error to derived terrain parameters. This review brings together a discussion of research in fundamental topical areas related to DEM uncertainty that affect the use of DEMs for hydrologic applications. These areas include: (a) DEM error; (b) topographic parameters frequently derived from DEMs and the associated algorithms used to derive these parameters; (c) the influence of DEM scale as imposed by grid cell resolution; (d) DEM interpolation; and (e) terrain surface modification used to generate hydrologically-viable DEM surfaces. Each of these topical areas contributes to DEM uncertainty and may potentially influence results of distributed parameter hydrologic models that rely on DEMs for the derivation of input parameters. The current state of research on methods developed to quantify DEM uncertainty is reviewed. Based on this review, implications of DEM uncertainty and suggestions for the GIS research and user communities emerge.
Using the MESH modelling system for hydrological ensemble forecasting of the Laurentian Great Lakes at the regional scale
Authors: Pietroniro A. , Fortin V. , Kouwen N. , Neal C. , Turcotte R. , Davison B. , Verseghy D. , Soulis E. D. , Caldwell R. , Evora N. , Pellerin P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Environment Canada has been developing a community environmental modelling system (Modélisation Environmentale Communautaire – MEC), which is designed to facilitate coupling between models focusing on different components of the earth system. The ultimate objective of MEC is to use the coupled models to produce operational forecasts. MESH (MEC – Surface and Hydrology), a configuration of MEC currently under development, is specialized for coupled land-surface and hydrological models. To determine the specific requirements for MESH, its different components were implemented on the Laurentian Great Lakes watershed, situated on the Canada–U.S. border. This experiment showed that MESH can help us better understand the behaviour of different land-surface models, test different schemes for producing ensemble streamflow forecasts, and provide a means of sharing the data, the models and the results with collaborators and end-users. This modelling framework is at the heart of a testbed proposal for the Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) which should allow us to make use of the North American Ensemble Forecasting System (NAEFS) to improve streamflow forecasts of the Great Lakes tributaries, and demonstrate how MESH can contribute to a Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS).
Biotic pump of atmospheric moisture as driver of the hydrological cycle on land
Authors: Makarieva A. M. , Gorshkov V. G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper the basic geophysical and ecological principles are jointly analyzed that allow the landmasses of Earth to remain moistened sufficiently for terrestrial life to be possible. 1. Under gravity, land inevitably loses water to the ocean. To keep land moistened, the gravitational water runoff must be continuously compensated by the atmospheric ocean-to-land moisture transport. Using data for five terrestrial transects of the International Geosphere Biosphere Program we show that the mean distance to which the passive geophysical air fluxes can transport moisture over non-forested areas, does not exceed several hundred kilometers; precipitation decreases exponentially with distance from the ocean. 2. In contrast, precipitation over extensive natural forests does not depend on the distance from the ocean along several thousand kilometers, as illustrated for the Amazon and Yenisey river basins and Equatorial Africa. This points to the existence of an active biotic pump transporting atmospheric moisture inland from the ocean. 3. Physical principles of the biotic moisture pump are investigated based on the previously unstudied properties of atmospheric water vapor, which can be either in or out of hydrostatic equilibrium depending on the lapse rate of air temperature. A novel physical principle is formulated according to which the low-level air moves from areas with weak evaporation to areas with more intensive evaporation. Due to the high leaf area index, natural forests maintain high transpiration fluxes, which support the ascending air motion over the forest and "suck in" moist air from the ocean, which is the essence of the biotic pump of atmospheric moisture. In the result, the gravitational runoff water losses from the optimally moistened forest soil can be fully compensated by the biotically enhanced precipitation at any distance from the ocean. 4. It is discussed how a continent-scale biotic water pump mechanism could be produced by natural selection acting on individual trees. 5. Replacement of the natural forest cover by a low leaf index vegetation leads to an up to tenfold reduction in mean continental precipitation and runoff, in contrast to the previously available estimates made without accounting for the biotic moisture pump. The analyzed body of evidence testifies that the long-term stability of an intense terrestrial water cycle is unachievable without the recovery of natural, self-sustaining forests on continent-wide areas.
A decision analysis approach for optimal groundwater monitoring system design under uncertainty
Authors: Yenigül N. B. , Elfeki A. M. M. , van den Akker C. , Dekking F. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Groundwater contamination is the degradation of the natural quality of groundwater as a result of human activity. Landfills are one of the most common human activities threatening the groundwater quality. The objective of the monitoring systems is to detect the contaminant plumes before reaching the regulatory compliance boundary in order to prevent the severe risk to both society and groundwater quality, and also to enable cost-effective counter measures in case of a failure. The detection monitoring problem typically has a multi-objective nature. A multi-objective decision model (called MONIDAM) which links a classic decision analysis approach with a stochastic simulation model is applied to determine the optimal groundwater monitoring system given uncertainties due to the hydrogeological conditions and contaminant source characteristics. A Monte Carlo approach is used to incorporate uncertainties. Hydraulic conductivity and the leak location are the random inputs of the simulation model. The design objectives considered in the model are: (1) maximizing the detection probability, (2) minimizing the contaminated area and, (3) minimize the total cost of the monitoring system. The results show that the monitoring systems located close to the source are optimal except for the cases with very high unit installation and sampling cost and/or very cheap unit remediation cost.
Optimising training data for ANNs with Genetic Algorithms
Authors: Kamp R. G. , Savenije H. H. G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Artificial Neural Networks have proven to be good modelling tools in hydrology for rainfall-runoff modelling and hydraulic flow modelling. Representative data sets are necessary for the training phase in which the ANN learns the model's input-output relations. Good and representative training data is not always available. In this publication Genetic Algorithms are used to optimise training data sets. The approach is tested with an existing hydrological model in The Netherlands. The optimised training set resulted in significant better training data.
The scale of typhoon RUSA
Authors: Kim N. W. , Won Y. S. , Chung I. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In August 2002, Typhoon RUSA hit Korea with severe gale and storm, causing extensive damage throughout the whole country and especially in the Gangneung area. Even on a single day, Typhoon RUSA recorded up to 879.5 mm of rainfall in the Gangneung area. Quantitative and qualitative analyses of the scale of Typhoon RUSA are performed in this study. Most of the inland affected by RUSA in the Korean Peninsula recorded heavy rainfall, equivalent to a return period of more than 200 years. Especially, rainfall of 24 h duration exceeded the maxima observed so far. Although areal rainfall showed a rapidly decreasing trend with increasing area, it reached 96 percent of the existing PMP within a 2000 km2 area and recorded the maximum observed value of Korea according to a DAD analysis of rainfall. Re-estimated PMP values obtained from a hydro-meteorological approach compared with existing PMP estimates revealed a discrepancy between the two values, which showed that re-estimated PMP values of 12 to 24 h duration within 2000 km2 exceeded the existing PMP estimates of Korea. Therefore, modification of the existing PMP is required, which is used as a design hydrological variable of hydraulic structure.
Assessing hyporheic zone dynamics in two alluvial flood plains of the Southern Alps using water temperature and tracers
Authors: Hoehn E. , Cirpka O. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Water temperature can be used as a tracer for the interaction between river water and groundwater, interpreting time shifts in temperature signals as retarded travel times. The water temperature fluctuates on different time scales, the most pronounced of which are the seasonal and diurnal ones. While seasonal fluctuations can be found in any type of shallow groundwater, high-frequency components are more typical for freshly infiltrated river water, or hyporheic groundwater, and are thus better suited for evaluating the travel time of the youngest groundwater component in alluvial aquifer systems. We present temperature time series collected at two sites in the alpine floodplain aquifers of the river Brenno in Southern Switzerland. At the first site, we determine apparent travel times of temperature for both the seasonal and high-frequency components of the temperature signals in several wells. The seasonal signal appears to travel more slowly, indicating a mixture of older and younger groundwater components, which is confirmed by sulphate measurements. The travel times of the high-frequency component qualitatively agree with the groundwater age derived from radon concentrations, which exclusively reflects young water components. Directly after minor floods, the amplitude of temperature fluctuations in an observation well nearby the river is the highest. Within a week, the riverbed is being clogged, leading to stronger attenuation of the temperature fluctuations in the observation well. At the second site, very fast infiltration to depths of 1.9m under the riverbed could be inferred from the time shift of the diurnal temperature signal.
Flash flood modeling with the MARINE hydrological distributed model
Authors: Estupina-Borrell V. , Dartus D. , Ababou R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Flash floods are characterized by their violence and the rapidity of their occurrence. Because these events are rare and unpredictable, but also fast and intense, their anticipation with sufficient lead time for warning and broadcasting is a primary subject of research. Because of the heterogeneities of the rain and of the behavior of the surface, spatially distributed hydrological models can lead to a better understanding of the processes and so on they can contribute to a better forecasting of flash flood. Our main goal here is to develop an operational and robust methodology for flash flood forecasting. This methodology should provide relevant data (information) about flood evolution on short time scales, and should be applicable even in locations where direct observations are sparse (e.g. absence of historical and modern rainfalls and streamflows in small mountainous watersheds). The flash flood forecast is obtained by the physically based, space-time distributed hydrological model "MARINE'' (Model of Anticipation of Runoff and INondations for Extreme events). This model is presented and tested in this paper for a real flash flood event. The model consists in two steps, or two components: the first component is a "basin'' flood module which generates flood runoff in the upstream part of the watershed, and the second component is the "stream network'' module, which propagates the flood in the main river and its subsidiaries. The basin flash flood generation model is a rainfall-runoff model that can integrate remotely sensed data. Surface hydraulics equations are solved with enough simplifying hypotheses to allow real time exploitation. The minimum data required by the model are: (i) the Digital Elevation Model, used to calculate slopes that generate runoff, it can be issued from satellite imagery (SPOT) or from French Geographical Institute (IGN); (ii) the rainfall data from meteorological radar, observed or anticipated by the French Meteorological Service (Météo France); and (iii) the spatially distributed soil and other surface properties viewed from space (land cover map from SPOT or LANDSAT, main rivers, ...). The stream flood propagation model simulates flood propagation in main rivers by solving 1-D Saint Venant equations. The data required for this part of the model are the river morphology, topography and roughness. The MARINE model has already been used previously for real time flash floods forecasting in the frame of the PACTES project on "forecasting and anticipation of floods with spatial techniques'' (funded by the CNES and the French Ministry of Research) concerning the catastrophic 1999 flash flood that occurred in the South of France. The main advantages of MARINE are its ability to run on insufficiently gauged basins (with the help of satellite information) and to run in an operational mode for real-time flood forecasting.