bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Participatory simulation: Climate and ocean literacy in action
Authors: Promduangsri Pimnutcha , Promduangsri Pariphat , Alvarez de la Campa Stacey , Bolouri Farhad , Mascagni Mario , Parigi Riccardo
Published: March 2022

Climate change (CC) and ocean degradation (OD) are major threats to the perpetuation of life on planet Earth.  This makes it important for people of all walks to learn about the problems and about how they may contribute to solutions.  It is our responsibility to ensure that the planet remains habitable for humans and for all species.  One way to learn about CC and OD is through experience and direct interaction with the environment.  Experiential learning (Kolb) allows people to learn with both their heads and their hearts, to become engaged with the issues and with their own learning process.  Experience can be real, as in an internship or living with sea-level rise, or it can be contrived, as in a game or simulation.

Many simulation/games have been designed to teach climate and ocean literacy (e.g., review by Ulrich).  Here we will outline our own experience of two online, large-scale participatory simulations – running over several days.  The broad learning objectives for each participant were as follows:

to become an even better ocean-climate-coast-literate and geoethical stakeholder and

to help other people to become literate in the ocean-climate-coast processes,

in other words,

to learn about the ocean, coasts and climate system, to behave in a responsible manner in that system and to learn how to multiply and convey their knowledge and skills to others,

to learn how to collaborate effectively with and facilitate the inclusion of a range of stakeholders.

The objective of each online, participatory simulation was to write a collective document, in somewhat similar fashion to drafting an international treaty.  In so doing, participants need to interact, build trust, negotiate, find compromises, listen to others, articulate their own ideas and wishes, draft text, rewrite drafts and so on.  Each simulation is contextualized with a scenario based on real data, but projected into the future.  The interactions are conducted via Discord and Google Drive.  At the end, a structured debrief is conducted.

In this presentation, we will share our experiences and explain the learning processes.  We will outline:

The content areas of the online participatory simulations.

The pedagogical principles, such as learner-centred participatory simulation, feedback and debriefing.

Participants feedback.

We will provide time to answer audience questions, and provide information on how you can participate in the next simulation run.  We hope to see you virtually and in person at the EGU.
Constraining the carbon budget of peat ecosystems: application of stoichiometry and enthalpy balances.
Authors: Worrall Fred , Clay Gareth , Boothroyd Ian , Moody Catherine , Burt Timothy
Published: March 2022

This study considers how the stoichiometry and energy content of organic matter reservoirs and fluxes through and from a peatland enable the carbon fluxes and storage within a peatland to be constrained. The study considers the elemental composition of the above- and below-ground biomass, litter, the peat profile, dissolved and particulate organic matter within a blanket bog in northern England for which only the C budget had been measured. The study shows, based only the elemental composition and calculation of oxidation and energy contents, that:

DOC in first-order streams is significantly more oxidised than that in peat pore water but that there is no significant difference in organic carbon oxidation state down the peat profile.

The approach predicts the occurrence and speciation of N uptake and release in the peatland with N used and recycled.

The relatively high oxidation state of DOC in stream water means that acts as an end point for reaction.

Methanogenesis does not develop in deep peat as it requires too much energy to form.

Sulphate reduction did result in the formation of deep peat but in this catchment this was inadequate to account for the rate of peat formation.

The formation of deep peat in this catchment could only be achieved if the DOM in the peat pore water was acting as an electron acceptor and energy source; however, it is unclear as to the flux of DOM up or down the peat profile.
Living on landslides: seasonal rainfall effects on rates of movement in highly urbanized unstable areas in Gangtok, Sikkim Himalaya
Authors: Dehls John F. , Bhasin Rajinder K.
Published: March 2022

The Himalayan State of Sikkim is prone to some of the world's largest landslides which have caused catastrophic damages to lives, properties and infrastructures in the region. The state capital, Gangtok, has experienced rapid population growth over the last decades. The rate of urban expansion has led to encroachment and development on unstable slopes and unplanned construction and frequent violation of building by-laws and regulations. Significant areas of the city experience constant displacement due to the presence of relatively weak rock formations comprising of schists and phyllites. While some urban areas have been completely abandoned due to the structural damages in residential housing, schools, and office buildings, often these buildings are simply repaired or replaced.

Gangtok is draped over several relatively steep hillsides. In this study, we have used synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) to understand the patterns of displacement better, highlighting areas prone to landslides. The rates of movement of these highly urbanized unstable areas have been measured using data collected by the Sentinel-1 satellites between 2015 and 2021. Field investigations have also confirmed the ongoing ground surface displacements shown in the InSAR results.

Discretely bounded areas in Gangtok are moving at rates sometimes exceeding 12 cm/year. In this study, we concentrate our analysis on three landslide areas where people are residing: Tathenchen, Chanmari and Upper- and Lower-Sichey. In each of these areas, movement is continuous throughout the year. However, distinct periods of acceleration and deceleration are clearly linked to seasonal monsoon rainfall. For example, the velocity of the Upper Sichey landslide varies from about 3 cm/year to 7 cm/year, with peak velocity being reached shortly after peak precipitation each year. In addition, less than half of households in the region are connected to a wastewater network, resulting in significant amounts of water seeping into the local ground.

The type of displacement information obtained by InSAR monitoring is helpful for developing effective mitigation strategies that can limit landslide damage. For example, while rainfall cannot be controlled, better drainage networks can mitigate the local effects. In a broader perspective, the data can be used within urban development planning to identify risk areas and monitor potential zones of catastrophic collapse.
Evaluation and Bias Correction of Simulated Sub-daily Rainfall Extremes by Regional Climate Models
Authors: Van de Vyver Hans , Van Schaeybroeck Bert , De Troch Rozemien , De Cruz Lesley , Hamdi Rafiq , Villanueva-Birriel Cecille , Marbaix Philippe , van Ypersele Jean-Pascal , Wouters Hendrik , Vanden Broucke Sam , van Lipzig Nicole , Doutreloup Sébastien , Wyard Coraline , Scholzen Chloé , Fettweis Xavier , Caluwaerts Steven , Termonia Piet
Published: March 2022

Sub-daily precipitation extremes can have a huge impact on society as they cause hazards such as flooding, erosion and landslides. For example, the July floods in Germany, Belgium and nearby countries, were one of the costliest events in Europe, with insured losses up to USD 13 billion. Climate change is expected to intensify precipitation extremes as atmospheric water content increases by 6-7% per degree of warming, underscoring the need to predict  future hydrological hazards. Regional Climate Models (RCMs) typically run at a spatial resolution of 12-25 km, but they insufficiently describe the small-scale features of observed sub-daily precipitation extremes. The past decade, convection-permitting RCMs were developed which run at high resolution (1-4 km), and explicitly resolve deep convection. Confidence in future projections requires that RCMs adequately simulate the statistical features of observed sub-daily extreme precipitation and  also represent the physical processes associated with convective events. We propose a diagnostic framework for simulated 1h-24h rainfall extremes that summarizes the overall RCM performance. This includes the following metrics: the seasonal/diurnal cycle, temperature and humidity dependency, temporal scaling, and spatiotemporal clustering. A substantial part of the work is devoted to the statistical modelling of the metrics with Extreme Value Theory (EVT). We illustrate the evaluation tool with convection-permitting RCM simulations over Belgium against high-frequency observations and assess the benefit of the convection-permitting RCMs with respect to coarser scales. Finally, we give some guidelines for bias correction of simulated precipitation extremes.
Crustal structures from receiver functions and gravity analysis in central Mongolia
Authors: Guy Alexandra , Tiberi Christel , Mijiddorj Saandar
Published: March 2022

3D forward gravity modelling combined with receiver function analysis characterize the structures of the southern part of the Mongolian collage. Recently, a multidisciplinary approach integrating potential field analysis with geology and magmatic geochemistry demonstrate that relamination of an allochtonous felsic to intermediate lower crust played a major role in southern Mongolia structure. Relamination of material induces a homogeneous layer in the lower crust, which contrasts with the highly heterogeneous upper crustal part composed of different lithotectonic domains. The seismic signals of the 48 stations of the MOBAL2003 and the IRIS-PASSCAL experiments were analyzed to get the receiver functions. The resulting crustal thickness variation is first compared with the topography of the Moho determined by the 3D forward modeling of the GOCE gravity gradients. In addition, seismic stations south of the Hangay dome display significant signal related to the occurrence of a low velocity zone (LVZ) at lower crustal level. The receiver function analysis also revealed a significant difference between the crustal structures of the Hangay dome and the tectonic zones in the south. Finally, these seismic analysis inputs such as crustal thickness, strike and dips of the seismic interfaces as well as the boundaries and the lithologies of the different tectonic zones constitute the starting points from the 3D forward gravity modelling. The combination of these two independent methods enhances the occurrence and the extent of a low velocity and a low density zone (LVLDZ) at lower crustal level beneath central Mongolia. These LVLDZ may demonstrate the existence of the relamination of a hydrous material in southern Mongolia.
Direct evidence of high pore pressure at the toe of the Nankai accretionary prism
Authors: Pwavodi Joshua , Doan Mai-Linh
Published: March 2022

The Nankai Trough is a locus of slow slip, low frequency earthquakes and Mw>8 classical earthquakes. It is assumed that high pore pressure contributes substantially to earthquake dynamics. Hence, a full understanding of the hydraulic regime of the Nankai accretionary prism is needed to understand this diversity of behaviors. We contribute to this understanding by innovatively integrating the drilling and logging data of the NanTroSEIZE project. We focus on the toe of the accretionary prism by studying data from Hole C0024A drilled and intersected the décollement at 813 mbsf about 3km away from the trench.

Down Hole Annular Pressure was monitored during drilling. We perform a careful quantitative reanalysis of its variation and show localized fluid exchange between the formation and the borehole (excess of 0.05m3/s), especially in the damage zones at the footwall of the décollement.

Pore pressure was estimated using Eaton’s method on both drilling and sonic velocity data. The formation fluids are getting significantly over-pressurized only a few hundred meters from the toe of the accretionary prism near the décollement with excess pore-pressure (P*≈0.04–4.79MPa) and lithostatic load (λ≈88-0.96 & λ*≈0.1-0.62 ) contributing to maximum 62% of the overburden stress.

The hydraulic profile suggests that the plate boundary acts as a barrier inhibiting upward fluid convection, as well as a lateral channel along the damage zone, favouring high pore pressure at the footwall. Such high pressure at the toe of the subsection zone makes high pressure probable further down in the locus of tremors and slow slip events.
Non-isospectral modelling in probing nonlinear water waves
Authors: Zhang Longyuan , Duan Wenyang , Li Jiazhi
Published: March 2022

Reducing nonlinear evolution equations into integrable systems has emerged as a practical approach to probing nonlinear water waves. As a widely-accepted result, rogue waves can generate from the state changes of other types of wave solutions, for instance, a breather whose period approaches infinity. Crucially, the physical parameters varying across time and space can induce state transfers between different nonlinear wave solutions. More precisely, the coefficients of integrable systems are closely related to the real-world physical context. Especially in oceanography, the physical parameters concerned have large scale distribution in space and time, which implies that the simple iso-spectral models are out of reach.

 

The non-isospectral generalization of the (2+1)-dimensional Gardner equation adequately describes the nonlinear oceanic waves' abundant phenomena and characteristics. For this sake, we propose an extension of the Bell polynomial approach to derive its integrability features. Moreover, we obtain the explicit solution of corresponding non-isospectral solitary interactions, which indicates the drifting and alternating mechanisms of the wave envelopes in non-isospectral kink collisions.
Quantitative Assessment and Mapping of soil water and wind erosion in Pakistan
Authors: Yang Xuyan , Yang Qinke , Zhu Haonan , Wang Lei
Published: March 2022

 Soil erosion is a serious environmental problem, water erosion and wind erosion pose a greater threat to the sustainable development of Pakistan. In order to provide a scientific basis for the Pakistan’s soil and water conservation, this study used sub-meter resolution sampling survey (totally 475 units) and regional soil erosion factors (R, K, LS, B) as data sources, and calculates soil erosion rate maps (5m resolution) for each sampling unit based on the CSLE model, then uses a machine learning method to quantitatively make a soil erosion rate map in Pakistan that are closer to the real soil erosion characters. Based on climate, soil, topography, vegetation and other datas, the RWEQ model was used to quantitatively estimate the soil wind erosion rate map of Pakistan. Finally, the soil water erosion and wind erosion rate maps of Pakistan were spatially overlaid, taking into account the natural conditions of Pakistan, and according to the soil loss tolerance threshold, the study area is divided into wind erosion area, water erosion area, wind/water erosion interlaced areas. The results showed that : (1) Soil erosion in Pakistan is mainly concentrated in Potohar and its surrounding areas, the desert in the southwest, and the Thar desert in southeast. (2) The Kharan Desert in Balochistan and the Thar Desert in the southeast are dominated by wind erosion, Punjab and Sindh are dominated by water erosion, and wind and water erosion are combined in the northern mountainous areas and around the Suleiman Mountains Range. This study quantitatively estimated the rate of soil water erosion and wind erosion simultaneously in Pakistan, the results can more accurately express the spatial distribution characteristics of soil erosion in the country, provide a scientific basis for policy-making of soil and water conservation.
Amplitude modulated multimode-diode-laser-based cavity enhanced absorption spectroscopy with a phase-sensitive detection for high-sensitivity NO2 detection
Authors: Zhao Weixiong , Zhou Jiacheng , Zhang Yang , Fang Bo , Cheng Feihu , Xu Xuezhe , Ni Shichuan , Zhang Weijun , Ye Chunxiang , Chen Weidong , Venables Dean S.
Published: March 2022

Accurate and sensitive measurements of NO2 play an extremely important role in atmospheric studies. In the past 20 years, high sensitivity, precision, and accurate NO2 detection technology has developed rapidly, especially optical methods based on high-finesse cavities. In combination with chemical conversion, NO2 detector is used to measure a range of other important reactive atmospheric species, such as total reactive nitrogen (total peroxy nitrate (ΣPNs), total alkyl nitrate (ΣANs), and nitric acid (HNO3)), total peroxy radicals, O3 and nitric oxide (NO), which greatly enhanced our understanding of nitrogen chemistry, free radical chemistry, and atmospheric oxidation capacity.

In this presentation, we will report the development of an Amplitude Modulated multimode-diode-laser-based Cavity Enhanced Absorption Spectroscopy (AM-CEAS) system operating at 406 nm that uses phase-sensitive detection for extremely sensitive NO2 detection. A detection limit of 35 pptv (1σ, 1s) was achieved with reflectivity R ~ 99.985% (ring-down time τ0 ~ 10.87 μs). When the integration time was extended to 30 s, the precision can be further improved to 8 pptv. The reported AM-CEAS method provides a powerful, straightforward, and general method for ultra-sensitive absorption and extinction measurements.
Soil properties respond to crust forming under variable simulated rainfall events
Authors: Lin Lin , Yemeli Lonla Patric , Cornelis Wim
Published: March 2022

Soil surface crusting is a common phenomenon on agricultural soils susceptible to rainfall drop impact. Crust affects soil hydrological properties, erosion, crop quality and yield, which implicates both agriculture and the environment. Whereas methods for determining hydraulic or basic properties of soil layers (such as thicker than 2 cm) are well established, measuring the soil characteristics of a thin crust (< 5 mm) remains a challenge. Therefore, in this study, we combine traditional lab methods and advanced techniques to test the variation in soil properties during the crust forming process. Composite samples from two soil textures were collected, dry-sieved at 8 mm, packed in soil pans and exposed to a range of rainfall amounts and two rainfall intensities, using a laboratory nozzle-type rainulator. Intact soil ring samples were collected after each rainfall event and scanned using X-ray Computed Tomography (CT) to gain more insight into rainfall-induced crust formation. Soil porosity, bulk density and the thickness of crust were derived from CT scans. Meanwhile, a scanning electron microscope (SEM) was employed to verify the variation of the crust layer thickness and soil properties. In addition, the water retention and infiltration dynamics of the developing seals were investigated with a minidisk infiltrometer placed on the crusts developed in the pans and a falling head permeameter (KSAT®) and evaporation method (HYPROP®) on soil cores taken. Shear strength was evaluated by hand vane. Disturbed soil was collected to explore variation in organic matter content and texture with rainfall. During the simulated rain events, soil loss, splash and runoff were followed as well. Overall, the purpose of this study was to reveal temporal variations of seal micro-morphology and their effect on soil properties with increasing rainfall amount. Our results showed the runoff volume and sediment mass increased, while splash and infiltration volume decreased with the increase in rainfall amount. Shear strength increased until 200 mm of rainfall. Additionally, (crust forming) rainfall amount had a rapid and strong effect on the hydraulic properties, with the unsaturated hydraulic conductivity being reduced as rainfall duration increased and the high rainfall intensity having a greater impact. These results were associated with rainfall-induced aggregate breakdown processes, which was confirmed by SEM images. It also demonstrated that crust development occurred up to at least 200 mm rainfall after cultivation. In summary, it was possible to illustrate the structural seal formation process and the temporal interrelated dominance and significance of the associated sub-processes which contribute to overcoming the challenge of testing the thin crust (< 5 mm).
Future changes in flash flood frequency and magnitude over the European Alps
Authors: Zander Marjanne , Viguurs Pety , Sperna Weiland Frederiek , Weerts Albrecht
Published: March 2022

Flash Floods are damaging natural hazards which often occur in the European Alps. Precipitation patterns and intensity may change in a future climate affecting their occurrence and magnitude. For impact studies, flash floods can be difficult to simulate due the complex orography and limited extent & duration of the heavy rainfall events which trigger them.

The new generation convection-permitting regional climate models (CP-RCMs) improve the representation of the intensity and frequency of heavy precipitation. Therefore, this study combines such simulations with high-resolution distributed hydrological modelling to assess changes in flash flood frequency over the Alpine domain.

 We use output from a state-of-the-art CP-RCM to drive a high-resolution distributed hydrological wflow_sbm model covering most of the Alpine mountain range on an hourly resolution.  First, the hydrological model was validated by comparing ERA5 driven simulation with streamflow observations from 130 stations (across Rhone, Rhine, Po, Adige and Danube basins). Second, a hourly wflow_sbm simulation driven by a CP-RCM downscaled ERAInterim simulation was compared to databases of past flood events to evaluate if the model can accurately simulate flash floods and to determine a suitable threshold definition for flash flooding. Finally, simulations of the future climate RCP 8.5 for the end-of-century (2096-2105) and current climate (1998-2007) are compared for which the CP-RCM is driven by a Global Climate Model. The simulations are compared to assess if there are changes in flash flood frequency and magnitude using a threshold approach. Results show a similar flash flood frequency for autumn in the future, but a decrease in summer. However, the future climate simulations indicate an increase in the flash flood severity in both summer and autumn leading to more severe flash flood impacts.
The transcriptomic signature of cold and heat stress in benthic foraminifera - Implications for range expansions of marine calcifiers
Authors: Abdu Uri , Titelboim Danna , Morard Raphaël , Kucera Michal , Ashckenazi-Polivoda Sarit , Almogi-Labin Ahuva , Herut Barak , Manda Sneha , Abramovich Sigal , Gold David
Published: March 2022

The transcriptomic signature of cold and heat stress in benthic foraminifera - Implications for range expansions of marine calcifiers

Global warming permits range expansions of tropical marine species into mid-latitude habitats, where they are, however, faced with cold winter temperatures. Therefore, tolerance to cold temperatures may be the key adaptation controlling zonal range expansion in tropical marine species. Here we investigated the molecular and physiological response to cold and heat stress in a tropical symbiont-bearing foraminifera that has successfully invaded the Eastern Mediterranean. Our physiological measurements indicate thermal tolerance of the diatom symbionts but a decrease of growth for the foraminifera host under both cold and warm stress. The combined (“holobiont”) transcriptome revealed an asymmetric response in short-term gene expression under cold versus warm stress. Cold stress induced major reorganization of metabolic processes, including regulation of genes involved in photosynthesis. Analyses limited to genes that are inferred to belong to the symbionts confirm that the observed pattern is due to changes in the regulation of photosynthesis-related genes and not due to changes in abundance of the symbionts. In contrast to cold stress, far fewer genes change expression under heat stress and those that do are primarily related to movement and cytoskeleton. This implies that under cold stress, cellular resources are allocated to the maintenance of photosynthesis, and the key to zonal range shifts of tropical species could be the cold tolerance of the symbiosis.
Lessons learned from organizing an in-classroom forecasting challenge for teaching uncertainty quantification 
Authors: Lerch Sebastian
Published: March 2022

In an effort to foster interdisciplinary and innovative teaching via a ‘gamification’ approach, a real-time forecasting challenge was organized during the winter term 2021/2022 at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. The main aim was to teach students about statistical methods, probabilistic forecasting and uncertainty quantification in a practical, real-world problem-oriented setup. Around 20 participants (mostly MSc-level students) from backgrounds in mathematics, economics, computer science and geosciences were tasked to provide probabilistic predictions of several targets, including temperature and wind speed at a local weather station in Karlsruhe, over 14 weeks during the semester. Real-time feedback was provided in the form of automated evaluation and rankings of the participants’ submissions, who were competing for a ‘Student Award’ sponsored by the International Institute of Forecasters. Efforts and problems in building and evaluating models were discussed in weekly virtual meetings.

In this presentation, I will discuss the setup and relevant design choices of the forecasting challenge, along with the main outcomes and lessons learned from the practical implementation in the context of the course. All relevant code and material are available as open educational resources.
Modelling vine water stress during a critical period and potential yield reduction rate in European wine regions: a retrospective analysis
Authors: Santos João Andrade , Menz Christoph , Fraga Helder , Costafreda-Aumedes Sergi , Leolini Luisa , Ramos Maria Concepción , Molitor Daniel , van Leeuwen Cornelis , Yang Chenyao
Published: March 2022

Most European vineyards are managed under rainfed conditions, where seasonal water deficit has become increasingly important. The flowering-veraison phenophase represents an important period for vine response to water stress, which is seldomly thoroughly evaluated. Therefore, we aim to quantify the flowering-veraison water stress levels using Crop Water Stress Indicator (CWSI) over 1986–2015 for important European wine regions and to assess the respective potential Yield Lose Rate (YLR). Additionally, we also investigate whether an advanced flowering-veraison phase may help to alleviate the water stress with improved yield. A process-based grapevine model STICS is employed, which has been extensively calibrated for flowering and veraison stages using observed data at 38 locations with 10 different grapevine varieties. Subsequently, the model is being implemented at the regional level, considering site-specific calibration results and gridded climate and soil datasets. The findings suggest wine regions with stronger flowering-veraison CWSI tend to have higher potential YLR. However, contrasting patterns are found between wine regions in France-Germany-Luxembourg and Italy-Portugal-Spain. The former tends to have slight-to-moderate drought conditions (CWSI<0.5) and a negligible-to-moderate YLR (<30%), whereas the latter possesses severe-to-extreme CWSI (>0.5) and substantial YLR (>40%). Wine regions prone to a high drought risk (CWSI>0.75) are also identified, which are concentrated in southern Mediterranean Europe. An advanced flowering-veraison phase may have benefited from cooler temperatures and a higher fraction of spring precipitation in wine regions of Italy-Portugal-Spain, resulting in alleviated CWSI and moderate reductions of YLR. For those of France-Germany-Luxembourg, this can have reduced flowering-veraison precipitation, but prevalent alleviations of YLR are also found, possibly because of shifted phase towards a cooler growing season with reduced evaporative demands. Overall, such a retrospective analysis might provide new insights towards better management of seasonal water deficit for conventionally vulnerable Mediterranean wine regions, but also relatively cooler and wetter Central European regions. Acknowledgements: This study was funded by the Clim4Vitis project—“Climate change impact mitigation for European viticulture: knowledge transfer for an integrated approach”, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme, under grant agreement no. 810176; it was also supported by FCT—Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology, under the project UIDB/04033/2020.
Local climate impacts from ongoing restoration of a peatland
Authors: Worrall Fred , Howden Nicholas , Burt Timothy , Rico-Ramirez Miguel
Published: March 2022

We hypothesize that peatlands represent a cool humid island in their landscape context and that this effect could be recreated by successful peatland restoration. This study used 20 years of Earth observation data for land surface temperature (day- and night- time LST), albedo (near infra-red white sky albedo) and vegetation indices (EVI) measured for 42 one km2 grid squares across two peatlands and their surrounding arable fields. The peatlands have undergone restoration (re-vegetation and raising of water tables) since 2004. The results show that over the restored peatlands:

Daytime temperatures over the peatlands cooled relative to the surrounding arable land by up to 1.1 K (°C), but there was no significant change in night-time temperatures.

Over the peatlands the average amplitude of the diurnal temperature cycle decreased by up to 2.4 K (°C) over the period of the restoration.

Comparison of vegetation indices and albedo shows the cooling effect of increasing albedo was smaller than warming effect of changes in aerodynamic resistance brought about by development of shrubby vegetation.

The presence of an overall cooling effect, despite a warming effect due to vegetation development, meant that a rising water table led to a lowering of the Bowen ratio. Peatlands revegetated to, or dominated by, moss carpets rather than shrubby vegetation will maximise the potential cooling effect, whereas shrub development across peatlands without a rise in water table will lead to warming.
Evolution of alpha particle content at flux rope boundaries as seen by Solar Orbiter
Authors: Prech Lubomir , Durovcova Tereza , Safrankova Jana , Nemecek Zdenek , Louarn Philippe , Fedorov Andrey
Published: March 2022

The solar wind is highly structured and consists of bundles of flux ropes. Their boundaries can be identified as sharp changes of the magnetic field magnitude and/or direction that are frequently accompanied with changes of plasma parameters like velocity, density and ion composition. An analysis of observations showed that flux rope diameters can range from thousands of kilometers to tenth of AU. Whereas the small ropes can be hardly distinguished from structures produced by nonlinear interaction of plasma waves, large ropes like ICMEs or MCs attract attention of scientific community for years. The velocity within these structures can significantly differ from that in the ambient wind and thus they can drive interplanetary shocks followed by highly fluctuating sheaths. The contribution is based on Solar Orbiter PAS ion spectrometer observations of one MC like structure. The good radial alignment with other spacecraft operating in the interplanetary space allows us comparison of their observations. The alpha abundance variations are usually attributed to crossings of the flux rope boundaries but we argue that the processes like the mirroring at temporary created magnetic field enhancements can lead to changes of the alpha particle relative content within a single flux rope. We show that the sheath fluctuations are complex but a careful analysis of relative alpha particle abundance can help to resolve the original flux rope structure that is masked by intrinsic sheath fluctuations.
Numerical modelling of marine dunes: Large-scale evolutions in an OWF context
Authors: Durand Noémie , Tassi Pablo , Blanpain Olivier , Lefebvre Alice
Published: March 2022

Marine dunes are sedimentary forms typically encountered on continental shelves. They migrate under the combined action of tidal currents and waves. Such an active environment poses a challenge to the design, safety, and maintenance of offshore and coastal works. Due to the continuous seabed evolution created by marine dune dynamics, offshore wind farm (OWF) elements, such as pile foundations and cables, are at risk of becoming exposed, weakening their integrity and stability, or on the contrary overburied, generating additional mechanical and thermal loads. Local scour at the toe of individual structures, and global scour resulting in the general lowering of the seabed around a group of structures, can also be elements of concern. Being able to predict the evolution and migration of marine dunes is, therefore, critical to limit damage to the infrastructures and to design effective protection works where needed.

In this context, the present work will investigate marine dune dynamics at different spatial and temporal scales (from metres to kilometres, from days to years) using a complex process-based model: the suite of open-source numerical solvers TELEMAC-MASCARET. The objective is to gain a better understanding of the hydrodynamics, the sediment transport and morphological processes at play in a marine dune environment, as well as of the mutual interactions between the dune field and the OWF elements. The model capabilities to reproduce large-scale sediment transport processes in OWF environments and to obtain accurate diachronic predictions of the dunes’ evolution will be assessed in this work, and further developed if necessary.

A large dataset (bathymetric surveys over several periods, metocean data, and sediment data) has been collected in the last few years for a proposed OWF project off Dunkirk, France. These data will prove invaluable to assess the model performance. They indicate dune migration rates of tens of metres per year in places. The site is subjected to relatively strong tidal flows, with a predominance of the flood towards the North-East. Waves are primarily from the South-West, travelling in the Channel, but some significant events from the North-North-East have been noted.

This work is part of the 3-year MODULLES project: MOdelling of marine DUnes: Local and Large-scale EvolutionS in an OWF context, funded by France Energies Marines and the French government, under the “Investissements d’Avenir” programme managed by the French National Research Agency ANR. It is hosted by the Saint-Venant Hydraulics Laboratory (LHSV). 
Atmospheric Blocking Trends and Variability in CMIP6-Simulations
Authors: Lohmann Richard , Purr Christopher , Ahrens Bodo
Published: March 2022

Atmospheric blocking describes a quasi-stationary weather pattern in midlatitudes which is characterised by a disruption of the westerly flow. Within the blocking anticyclone, large-scale subsidence of air effects dissipation of clouds. Intensive solar radiation during summer leads to a positive radiation balance whereas the balance is negative during winter. Therefore, a longer blocking event is often related to temperature extremes. On the one hand, the positive radiation balance in summer causes heatwaves which are intensified by adiabatic warming of subsiding air and warm air advection from the south on the western side of the block. On the other hand, cold spells occur in winter, especially on the eastern side of the block where advection of cold air from the north intensifies the effect of negative radiation balance. In case of longer persistence of the anticyclone, dry episodes can extend to droughts. The drought can be flanked by flood events due to quasi-stationary low-pressure systems. These weather phenomena have high socio-economic impacts and are good indicators to evaluate the accuracy of models. Thus, futural occurrence of blocking is of interest. We investigate the simulated blocking frequency by CMIP6 global climate models in different scenarios with focus on seasonal and regional trends. To assess the reliability of the models, we compare the historical simulations to centennial reanalyses. The comparison shows that the models underestimate the blocking frequency over Europe, the Northern Atlantic and the Northern Pacific. Furthermore, the models are apparently not able to represent variability and trends during the 20th century as detected by the reanalyses. The scenarios show a general decrease of blocking frequency in Northern Hemispheric midlatitudes during the 21st century. The decreasing trend in the simulations is stronger the stronger the emission of greenhouse gases is. This trend could be related to weakening of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) which is expected to be stronger in high-emission scenarios. However, a closer analysis of the ensemble mean of the models indicates regional and seasonal differences. For example, a strong decrease is simulated over the Northern Atlantic during winter whereas the models simulate an increase of blocking frequency over Eastern Europe and Siberia during summer. Furthermore, we developed an approach for an ensemble mean weighted by mean square error (MSE) to improve the confidence in the simulations. The weighted ensemble mean confirms the trends of the non-weighted ensemble mean and shows only slight differences. Thus, the application of a weighted ensemble mean yields only small improvements.
Climate anomalies and geomorphic hazards in high-mountain regions in the Alps: new perspectives from the integrated use of observations and satellite-based products
Authors: Paranunzio Roberta , Marra Francesco
Published: March 2022

High-elevation mountainous regions are experiencing an increase in the frequency of mass-wasting processes related to climate-change. Understanding the interplay between the climatic triggers (temperature and precipitation, in particular) and their effects on the dynamics of surface processes is crucial for developing reliable predictive models and for quantifying vulnerability and risk associated with these hazards.

In this work, we exploit a consolidated statistical-based approach in which triggering conditions are identified as climatic anomalies (i.e., non-exceedance probability below/above the 10th/90th percentile) in temperature and precipitation values at multiple temporal scales occurred in the lead-up of the events triggering. Specifically, we integrate the traditionally used in-situ information from daily weather stations with: (a) high-resolution (0.1°, 30-min) precipitation estimates from the Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals from GPM (IMERG) and (b) daily gridded temperature observations from ENSEMBLES OBServation (E-OBS). We investigate the use of these freely available gridded climatological datasets as an integration/surrogate for in-situ measurements.

Our analysis is based on a database of 358 geomorphic hazards occurred across the Italian Alps in the period 2000-2015, including landslides, rockfalls and debris flows. Preliminary results indicate that IMERG could significantly improve precipitation information by providing estimates directly on the initiation zones, which is particularly relevant in case of hazards triggered by small-scale convective storms. This advantage is evident and in particular for the case of debris flows: IMERG allows to detect precipitation in numerous cases (~60%) for which in-situ data showed no precipitation; in ~19% of these, climatic anomalies (exceedance of the 90th percentile) are detected.

Further results on the role of sub-daily precipitation processes, particularly relevant for hazards triggered by convective rainfall, such as debris and mud flows, and on the use of temperature data from E-OBS, as being evaluated and will be presented.
What causes transient deformations in the Åknes landslide, Norway?
Authors: Aspaas Andreas , Lacroix Pascal , Kristensen Lene , Etzelmüller Bernd , Renard François
Published: March 2022

Slow creeping landslides move at rates of millimeters to several meters per year. They can cause extensive damage to infrastructure and pose a major threat to human lives if failing catastrophically. Landslides can progressively weaken over time by rock mass damage processes that may occur by constant slow creep or sudden transient slips. Eventually, damage can lead to strain localization along the basal shear plane and catastrophic failure of the landslide. When observed, transient slip events, also called creep bursts, may induce short-term loading and hence can control landslide stability. These creep bursts correspond to short periods that can last several days where the displacement of a landslide accelerates and then decelerates. Here, we compiled and analyzed extensive multiphysics data series of the Åknes landslide, Norway. This landslide is moving at a slow rate of 6 cm per year and could generate a large tsunami wave in a fjord if it would rupture catastrophically. Based on the time series of an array of eight seismometers, five extensometers, seven borehole inclinometers and piezometer strings, and ten continuous GPS stations sampled with time resolutions down to 5 minutes over several years, we detected creep bursts in this landslide. These events interact with a distinct creep trend related to seasonal variations of rainfall and snowmelt. We analyze the creep bursts in regards to micro-earthquake activity and water pressure levels, to study their origin.
Stressed landscape evolution
Authors: Voigtländer Anne , Turowski Jens M , Gailleton Boris
Published: March 2022

Landscapes – simulated or natural – exhibit various textures. Some appear gentle and smooth, while others show off sharp edges, steep descents or roughness. Erosion controls the sculpting of landscapes. Bedrock and material are eroded where weakened or unconfined. Analogous models have us speculate that stress controls might impact landscape evolution across scales. A first order control behind this is the landscape’s internal stress state or strength. The internal stress state or strength is a result of the geometry, material properties, gravity and geodynamic stresses.  Depending on the mode, orientation and magnitude of internal stress can have a strengthening or toughening effect on the rock, which can retard erosion. We expect emergent effects from the tectonic/regional to the local/topographic stress field on erosion rates and landforms. We use experimentally constrained equations to explore the consequences of stress-strengthening on landscape evolution. Within a numerical landscape evolution modelling framework, Fastscape, we test these variations in erosion due to the stress field by modulating the erodibility factor K as a function of the simulated internal stress. We observe the local effects on erosion rates and compare where in a fluvial or diffusion driven landscapes the implemented stress control has a dominant effect.
Similarities and differences of jet-like structures in different regions of the magnetosheath
Authors: Goncharov Oleksandr , Safrankova Jana , Nemecek Zdenek , Xirogiannopoulou Niki , Gutynska Olga , Gunell Herbert , Hamrin Maria
Published: March 2022

Plasma structures with the enhanced dynamic pressure, density or speed are often observed in the Earth’s magnetosheath. These structures, known as jets and fast plasmoids, can be registered in the magnetosheath, downstream both the quasi-perpendicular and quasi-parallel bow shocks. Using measurements by the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) spacecraft, Goncharov et al. (2020) showed similarities in the plasma properties of the jets and fast plasmoids. On the other hand, they pointed out that the different magnetic fields inside the structures suggest that the formation mechanisms are different. Hybrid simulations by Preisser et al. (2020) have shown differences in the mechanisms of jet and embedded plasmoid formation. Based on our comparative analysis, we discuss features of jet-like structures, their properties, occurrence, evolution, and relation to the magnetosheath parameters.
Numerical assessment of the barrier integrity from a generic nuclear waste repository in crystalline rock
Authors: Guevara Morel Carlos , Maßmann Jobst , Thiedau Jan
Published: March 2022

Safe deep geological disposal of heat generating nuclear waste requires a detailed assessment of the geotechnical integrity of potential host rocks. In Germany, several repository systems are under discussion, in which clay stone, salt or crystalline rock could serve as host rock. This contribution proposes a modelling concept for the numerical analysis of the thermal, hydraulic and mechanical (THM) coupled processes used for the barrier integrity assessment of a nuclear waste repository in crystalline rock. In particular, focusing on repository systems where the Containment Providing Rock Zone (CRZ) represents the essential barrier. This implies that understanding the potential changes in the geological barrier caused by the disposal of the waste is fundamental in order to avoid the creation of preferential flow paths for the disposed waste into the biosphere. Furthermore, in Germany, the host rocks must comply with the safety requirements stipulated by the German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation, Nuclear Safety and Consumer Protection in 2020.

Crystalline rock, in contrast to clay stone and salt rock, is usually characterised by fractures and other types of discontinuities. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that a single sufficiently large unfractured area can be found in which all of the nuclear waste could be emplaced. In consequence, multiple smaller CRZs, each providing undisturbed rock, have to be defined. Moreover, the fracture network is expected to influence the hydraulic behaviour of the system. Thus, an adequate representation of the fracture network is required in order to capture its relevant properties, which will ultimately define the hydraulic boundary conditions surrounding the CRZs.

The proposed modelling concept is applied to a generic geological model reflecting a realistic geological situation. A Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) model is used to determine the hydraulic properties that are then upscaled and mapped into a continuum Finite Element (FE) model. The preliminary numerical results (e.g. stresses and pore fluid pressures) from the parameterized continuum model are used to exemplary assess the barrier integrity using criteria which take into account the dilatancy strength and fluid pressure.