bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Evaluation of the best fit distribution for partial duration series of daily rainfall in Madinah, western Saudi Arabia
Authors: Alahmadi F. , Rahman N. A. , Abdulrazzak M.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Rainfall frequency analysis is an essential tool for the design of water related infrastructure. It can be used to predict future flood magnitudes for a given magnitude and frequency of extreme rainfall events. This study analyses the application of rainfall partial duration series (PDS) in the vast growing urban Madinah city located in the western part of Saudi Arabia. Different statistical distributions were applied (i.e. Normal, Log Normal, Extreme Value type I, Generalized Extreme Value, Pearson Type III, Log Pearson Type III) and their distribution parameters were estimated using L-moments methods. Also, different selection criteria models are applied, e.g. Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Corrected Akaike Information Criterion (AICc), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Anderson-Darling Criterion (ADC). The analysis indicated the advantage of Generalized Extreme Value as the best fit statistical distribution for Madinah partial duration daily rainfall series. The outcome of such an evaluation can contribute toward better design criteria for flood management, especially flood protection measures.
Climate change impact on flood hazard
Authors: Brilly M. , Kavčič K. , Šraj M. , Rusjan S. , Vidmar A.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Climate changes have a high impact on river discharges and therefore on floods. There are a few different methods we can use to predict discharge changes in the future. In this paper we used the complex HBV model for the Vipava River and simple correlation between discharge and precipitation data for the Soča River. The discharge prediction is based on the E-OBS precipitation data for three future time periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100). Estimated discharges for those three future periods are presented for both rivers. But a special situation occurs at the confluence where the two rivers with rather different catchments unite, and this requires an additional probability analysis.
A probabilistic model for predicting seasonal rainfall in semi-arid lands of northeast Brazil
Authors: da Silva B. B. , Braga C. C. , Montenegro S. G. L. , da Silva V. d. P. R. , de Oliveira L. M. M. , de Sousa F. d. A. S.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. In most of the northeast region of Brazil rainfall is relatively low, presenting significant inter-annual fluctuations, especially when compared to rainfall in other areas of Brazil. Moreover, evaporative rates (like the ones found in the northeast semi-arid region) are too high, sometimes reaching over 2800 mm annually. Owing to such a climate character, very large areas in northeast Brazil are subjected to recurrent droughts. This paper presents a methodology for the prediction of seasonal rainfall in semi-arid lands of northeast Brazil. A total of 72 raingauge stations of Paraiba State, and 84 in Ceará State were employed, all of them distributed in three and seven homogeneous areas, respectively. A rainy season with different subdivisions was established for each homogeneous area. The zi proportions – the ratio between the cumulative rainfall of the first rainy season period and the rain that falls during the whole rainy season were made to fit the Beta probabilistic model used for calculating the second and eighth deciles and the probability of rainfall above the average rainfall for the second period of the rainy season. The performance of the prognostic model for individual stations of Paraíba State in the period 1996–2000 was evaluated. In the period 1996 to 2000, with rainfall above average, the error was less than 20 %. The methodology adopted proved very accurate for forecasting droughts in northeast Brazil.
Modelling the shrub encroachment in a grassland with a Cellular Automata Model
Authors: Caracciolo D. , Noto L. V. , Istanbulluoglu E.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Arid and semi-arid grasslands of southwestern North America have changed dramatically over the last 150 years as a result of shrub encroachment, i.e. the increase in density, cover and biomass of indigenous shrubby plants in grasslands. Numerous studies have documented the expansion of shrublands in the southwestern American grasslands; in particular shrub encroachment has occurred strongly in part of the northern Chihuahuan desert since 1860. This encroachment has been simulated using an ecohydrological Cellular Automata model, CATGraSS. It is a spatially distributed model driven by spatially explicit irradiance and runs on a fine-resolution gridded domain. Plant competition is modelled by keeping track of mortality and establishment of plants; both are calculated probabilistically based on soil moisture stress. For this study CATGraSS has been improved with a stochastic fire module and a grazing function. The model has been implemented in a small area in Sevilleta National Wildlife Refuge (SNWR), characterized by two vegetation types (grass savanna and creosote bush shrub), considering as encroachment causes the fire return period increase, the grazing increase, the seed dispersal caused by animals, the role of wind direction and plant type competition. The model is able to reproduce the encroachment that has occurred in SNWR, simulating an increase of the shrub from 2% in 1860 to the current shrub percentage, 42%, and highlighting among the most influential factors the reduced fire frequency and the increased grazing intensity.
Developing tools to link environmental flows science and its practice in Sri Lanka
Authors: Eriyagma N. , Jinapala K.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. The term "Environmental Flows (EF)" may be defined as "the quantity, timing and quality of water flows required to sustain freshwater and estuarine ecosystems and the human livelihoods and well-being that depend on these ecosystems". It may be regarded as "water for nature" or "environmental demand" similar to crop water requirements, industrial or domestic water demand. The practice of EF is still limited to a few developed countries such as Australia, South Africa and the UK. In many developing countries EF is rarely considered in water resources planning and is often deemed "unimportant". Sri Lanka, being a developing country, is no exception to this general rule. Although the country underwent an extensive irrigation/water resources development phase during the 1960s through to the 1980s, the concept of EF was hardly considered. However, as Sri Lanka's water resources are being exploited more and more for human usage, ecologists, water practitioners and policymakers alike have realized the importance of EF in sustaining not only freshwater and estuarine ecosystems, but also their services to humans. Hence estimation of EF has been made mandatory in environmental impact assessments (EIAs) of all large development projects involving river regulation/water abstraction. Considering EF is especially vital under the rapid urbanization and infrastructure development phase that dawned after the end of the war in the North and the East of the country in 2009. This paper details simple tools (including a software package which is under development) and methods that may be used for coarse scale estimation of EF at/near monitored locations on major rivers of Sri Lanka, along with example applications to two locations on River Mahaweli. It is hoped that these tools will help bridge the gap between EF science and its practice in Sri Lanka and other developing countries.
Optimal integrated management of groundwater resources and irrigated agriculture in arid coastal regions
Authors: Grundmann J. , Schütze N. , Heck V.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Groundwater systems in arid coastal regions are particularly at risk due to limited potential for groundwater replenishment and increasing water demand, caused by a continuously growing population. For ensuring a sustainable management of those regions, we developed a new simulation-based integrated water management system. The management system unites process modelling with artificial intelligence tools and evolutionary optimisation techniques for managing both water quality and water quantity of a strongly coupled groundwater–agriculture system. Due to the large number of decision variables, a decomposition approach is applied to separate the original large optimisation problem into smaller, independent optimisation problems which finally allow for faster and more reliable solutions. It consists of an analytical inner optimisation loop to achieve a most profitable agricultural production for a given amount of water and an outer simulation-based optimisation loop to find the optimal groundwater abstraction pattern. Thereby, the behaviour of farms is described by crop-water-production functions and the aquifer response, including the seawater interface, is simulated by an artificial neural network. The methodology is applied exemplarily for the south Batinah re-gion/Oman, which is affected by saltwater intrusion into a coastal aquifer system due to excessive groundwater withdrawal for irrigated agriculture. Due to contradicting objectives like profit-oriented agriculture vs aquifer sustainability, a multi-objective optimisation is performed which can provide sustainable solutions for water and agricultural management over long-term periods at farm and regional scales in respect of water resources, environment, and socio-economic development.
Water risk assessment in China based on the improved Water Risk Filter
Authors: Hong G. , Yaqin Q. , Qiong L. , Cunwen N. , Na W. , Jiajia L. , Jongde G. , Na Z. , Xiangyi D.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Finding an effective way to deal with the water crisis and the relationship between water and development is a major issue for all levels of government and different economic sectors across the world. Scientific understanding of water risk is the basis for achieving a scientific relationship between water and development, and water risk assessment is currently an important research focus. To effectively deal with the global water crisis, the World Wide Fund for Nature and German Investment and Development Company Limited proposed the concept of water risk and released an online Water Risk Filter in March 2012, which has been applied to at least 85 countries. To comprehensively and accurately reflect the situation of water risk in China, this study adjusts the water risk assessment indicators in the Water Risk Filter, taking the actual situation in China and the difficulty of obtaining the information about the indicators into account, and proposes an index system for water risk evaluation for China which consists of physical risk, regulatory risk and reputational risk. The improved Water Risk Filter is further used to assess the sources and causes of the water risks in 10 first-class and seven second-class water resource areas (WRAs). The results indicate that the water risk for the whole country is generally medium and low, while those for different regions in the country vary greatly, and those for southern regions are generally lower than those for northern regions. Government regulatory and policy implementation as well as media supervision in northern regions should be strengthened to reduce the water risk. The research results may provide decision support and references for both governments and industrial enterprises in identifying water risks, formulating prevention and control policies, and improving water resources management in China.
Multi-model ensemble hydrologic prediction and uncertainties analysis
Authors: Jiang S. , Ren L. , Yang X. , Ma M. , Liu Y.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Modelling uncertainties (i.e. input errors, parameter uncertainties and model structural errors) inevitably exist in hydrological prediction. A lot of recent attention has focused on these, of which input error modelling, parameter optimization and multi-model ensemble strategies are the three most popular methods to demonstrate the impacts of modelling uncertainties. In this paper the Xinanjiang model, the Hybrid rainfall–runoff model and the HYMOD model were applied to the Mishui Basin, south China, for daily streamflow ensemble simulation and uncertainty analysis. The three models were first calibrated by two parameter optimization algorithms, namely, the Shuffled Complex Evolution method (SCE-UA) and the Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis method (SCEM-UA); next, the input uncertainty was accounted for by introducing a normally-distributed error multiplier; then, the simulation sets calculated from the three models were combined by Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The results show that both these parameter optimization algorithms generate good streamflow simulations; specifically the SCEM-UA can imply parameter uncertainty and give the posterior distribution of the parameters. Considering the precipitation input uncertainty, the streamflow simulation precision does not improve very much. While the BMA combination not only improves the streamflow prediction precision, it also gives quantitative uncertainty bounds for the simulation sets. The SCEM-UA calculated prediction interval is better than the SCE-UA calculated one. These results suggest that considering the model parameters' uncertainties and doing multi-model ensemble simulations are very practical for streamflow prediction and flood forecasting, from which more precision prediction and more reliable uncertainty bounds can be generated.
Feedback between societal change and hydrological response in Wadi Natuf, a karstic mountainous watershed in the occupied Palestinian Westbank
Authors: Messerschmid C.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Runoff observations with high spatial and temporal resolution before, during and since the Intifada in the occupied Palestinian West Bank, allow for new insights into the feedback between changing social systems and hydrological response under changing land forms. The lack of land control and infrastructure, movement restrictions and tight closure regimes, intensive settlement expansion and mushrooming unregulated solid waste dump-sites impact on runoff generation, groundwater recharge, flow patterns and rising water quality concerns. Long-term monitoring results from a 105 km2 Mediterranean climate catchment are presented. More research will strengthen these linkages. Changing socio-hydrological context of land sovereignty and equitable water rights remain paramount for addressing the chronic water crisis, establishing more symmetrical access and sustainable management of the shared water resources.
An integrated water resources management strategy for Al-Ain City, United Arab Emirates
Authors: Mohamed M. M.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Al-Ain is the second largest city in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi and the third in the UAE. Currently, desalination plants are the only source of drinking water in the city with an average daily supply of 170 MIG. Recently, Abu Dhabi Urban Planning Council (UPC) released Al-Ain 2030 Plan. Projects suggested in this plan, over and above the expected natural population growth, will certainly put additional stress on the water resources in the city. Therefore, Al-Ain city seems to be in urgent need for an integrated water resources management strategy towards achieving sustainable development. This strategy will contain three main components; namely, a Water Demand Forecasting Model (WDFM), a Water Budget Model (WBM), and a Water Resources Optimization Model (WROM). The main aim of this paper is to present the WBM that estimates all inflows and outflows to assess water resources sustainability in the city.
Shortage and surplus of water in the socio-hydrological context
Authors: Schumann A. , Nijssen d.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Balancing the temporal variability of hydrological conditions in the long- and short-term is often essential for steady socio-economic conditions. However, this equilibrium is very fragile in many cases. Hydrological changes or socio-economic changes may destroy it in a short time. If we extend the bearing capacity of socio-hydrological systems we increase, in many cases, the harmful consequences of failures. Here, two case studies are discussed to illustrate these problems. The limited success at adapting water resources to increasing human requirements without consideration of the natural capacities will be discussed with the example of water use for irrigation in northeastern China. The demand for a new planning approach, which is based on a combination of monitoring, model-based impact assessments and spatial distributed planning, is demonstrated. The problems of water surplus, which becomes evident during floods, are discussed in a second case study. It is shown that flood protection depends strongly on expectations of flood characteristics. The gap between the social requirement for complete flood prevention and the remaining risk of flood damage becomes obvious. An increase of risk-awareness would be more sustainable than promises of flood protection, which are the basis for technical measures to affect floods and (or) to prevent flood damages.
Variational data assimilation with the YAO platform for hydrological forecasting
Authors: Abbaris A. , Dakhlaoui H. , Thiria S. , Bargaoui Z.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. In this study data assimilation based on variational assimilation was implemented with the HBV hydrological model using the YAO platform of University Pierre and Marie Curie (France). The principle of the variational assimilation is to consider the model state variables as control variables and optimise them by minimizing a cost function measuring the disagreement between observations and model simulations. The variational assimilation is used for the hydrological forecasting. In this case four state variables of the rainfall–runoff model HBV (those related to soil water content in the water balance tank and to water contents in rooting tanks) are considered as control variables. They were updated through the 4D-VAR procedure using daily discharge incoming information. The Serein basin in France was studied and a high level of forecasting accuracy was obtained with variational assimilation allowing flood anticipation.
Electricity vs Ecosystems – understanding and predicting hydropower impact on Swedish river flow
Authors: Arheimer B. , Lindström G.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. The most radical anthropogenic impact on water systems in Sweden originates from the years 1900–1970, when the electricity network was developed in the country and almost all rivers were regulated. The construction of dams and changes in water flow caused problems for ecosystems. Therefore, when implementing the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) hydro-morphological indicators and targets were developed for rivers and lakes to achieve good ecological potential. The hydrological regime is one such indicator. To understand the change in flow regime we quantified the hydropower impact on river flow across Sweden by using the S-HYPE model and observations. The results show that the average redistribution of water during a year due to regulation is 19 % for the total discharge from Sweden. A distinct impact was found in seasonal flow patterns and flow duration curves. Moreover, we quantified the model skills in predicting hydropower impact on flow. The median NSE for simulating change in flow regime was 0.71 for eight dams studied. Results from the spatially distributed model are available for 37 000 sub-basins across the country, and will be used by the Swedish water authorities for reporting hydro-morphological indicators to the EU and for guiding the allocation of river restoration measures.
Hydrogeological characterization of peculiar Apenninic springs
Authors: Cervi F. , Marcaccio M. , Petronici F. , Borgatti L.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. In the northern Apennines of Italy, springs are quite widespread over the slopes. Due to the outcropping of low-permeability geologic units, they are generally characterized by low-yield capacities and high discharge variability during the hydrologic year. In addition, low-flow periods (discharge lower than 1 Ls-1) reflect rainfall and snowmelt distribution and generally occur in summer seasons. These features strongly condition the management for water-supply purposes, making it particularly complex. The "Mulino delle Vene" springs (420 m a.s.l., Reggio Emilia Province, Italy) are one of the largest in the Apennines for mean annual discharge and dynamic storage and are considered as the main water resource in the area. They flow out from several joints and fractures at the bottom of an arenite rock mass outcrop in the vicinity of the Tresinaro River. To date, these springs have not yet been exploited, as the knowledge about the hydrogeological characteristics of the aquifer and their hydrological behaviour is not fully achieved. This study aims to describe the recharge processes and to define the hydrogeological boundaries of the aquifer. It is based on river and spring discharge monitoring and groundwater balance assessment carried out during the period 2012–2013. Results confirm the effectiveness of the approach, as it allowed the total aliquot of discharge of the springs to be assessed. Moreover, by comparing the observed discharge volume with the one calculated with the groundwater balance, the aquifer has been identified with the arenite slab (mean altitude of 580 m a.s.l.), extended about 5.5 km2 and located 1 km west of the monitored springs.
Next stop, implementation: collaborative monitoring to inform adaptive policy-making and implementation
Authors: Hermans L. M. , Haasnoot M. , Kwakkel J. H.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways has been developed as an approach to deal with deep uncertainties and support robust decision-making for long-term planning. Given the unpredictable and uncertain futures, implementation of the resulting adaptive policies needs to be informed by regular monitoring. However, monitoring implementation in practice is complicated by the need to coordinate activities and share information among multiple actors. Here we present a first outline for an approach to organise collaborative monitoring to support adaptive implementation of long-term water policies. The analytical basis rests on an extension of Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways with actor analysis principles. Monitoring is to be organised around adaptation tipping points, for which a set of questions needs to be addressed that put societal actors central. Examples from two water management cases in the Netherlands suggest the usefulness of this approach.
Analysis of drought characteristics for improved understanding of a water resource system
Authors: Lennard A. T. , Macdonald N. , Hooke J.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Droughts are a reoccurring feature of the UK climate; recent drought events (2004–2006 and 2010–2012) have highlighted the UK’s continued vulnerability to this hazard. There is a need for further understanding of extreme events, particularly from a water resource perspective. A number of drought indices are available, which can help to improve our understanding of drought characteristics such as frequency, severity and duration. However, at present little of this is applied to water resource management in the water supply sector. Improved understanding of drought characteristics using indices can inform water resource management plans and enhance future drought resilience. This study applies the standardised precipitation index (SPI) to a series of rainfall records (1962–2012) across the water supply region of a single utility provider. Key droughts within this period are analysed to develop an understanding of the meteorological characteristics that lead to, exist during and terminate drought events. The results of this analysis highlight how drought severity and duration can vary across a small-scale water supply region, indicating that the spatial coherence of drought events cannot be assumed.
Green-roof as a solution to solve stormwater management issues? Assessment on a long time period at the parcel scale
Authors: Versini P.-A. , Petrucci G. , de Gouvello B.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Experimental green-roof rainfall–runoff observations have shown a positive impact on stormwater management at the building scale; with a decrease in the peak discharge and a decrease in runoff volume. This efficiency of green-roofs varies from one rainfall event to another depending on precipitation characteristics and substrate antecedent conditions. Due to this variability, currently, green-roofs are rarely officially used as a regulation tool to manage stormwater. Indeed, regulation rules governing the connection to the stormwater network are usually based on absolute threshold values that always have to be respected: maximum areal flow-rate or minimum retention volume for example. In this context, the aim of this study is to illustrate how a green-roof could represent an alternative to solve stormwater management issues, if the regulation rules were further based on statistics. For this purpose, a modelling scheme has been established at the parcel scale to simulate the hydrological response of several roof configurations: impervious, strictly regulated (in terms of areal flow-rate or retention volume), and covered by different types of green-roof matter. Simulations were carried out on a long precipitation time period (23 years) that included a large and heterogeneous set of hydrometeorological conditions. Results obtained for the different roof configurations were compared. Based on the return period of the rainfall event, the probability to respect some regulation rules (defined from real situations) was assessed. They illustrate that green-roofs reduce stormwater runoff compared to an impervious roof surface and can guarantee the respect of the regulation rules in most of the cases. Moreover, their implementation can appear more realistic than that of other infrastructures strictly complying with regulations and demanding significant storage capacity.
Model to assess the impacts of external drivers on the hydrology of the Ganges River Basin
Authors: Muthuwatta L. , Sood A. , Sharma B.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Impact of climate change on the hydrology of the Ganges River Basin (GRB) is simulated by using a hydrological model – Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Climate data from the GCM, Hadley Centre Coupled Model, version 3 (HadCM3) was downscaled with PRECIS for the GRB under A1B Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) scenarios. The annual average precipitation will increase by 2.2% and 14.1% by 2030 and 2050, respectively, compared to the baseline period (1981–2010). Spatial distribution of the future precipitation shows that in the substantial areas of the middle part of the GRB, the annual precipitation in 2030 and 2050 will be reduced compared to the baseline period. Simulations indicate that in 2050 the total groundwater recharge would increase by 12%, while the increase of evapotranspiration will be about 10% compared to the baseline period. The water yield is also expected to increase in the future (up to 40% by 2050 compared to baseline), especially during the wetter months. The model setup is available for free from IWMI’s modelling inventory.
Climate change scenarios and its impact on water resources of Langtang Khola Basin, Nepal
Authors: Raj Adhikari T. , Prasad Devkota L. , Bhakta Shrestha A.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. General Circulation Models (GCMs) successfully simulate future climate variability and climate change on a global scale; however, poor spatial resolution constrains their application for impact studies at a regional or a local level. The dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature data were used for the future climate scenarios prediction for the period 2000–2050s, under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 and A1B scenarios. In addition, rating equation was developed from measured discharge and gauge (stage) height data. The generated precipitation and temperature data from downscale and rating equation was used to run the HBV-Light 3.0 conceptual rainfall–runoff model for the calibration and validation of the model, gauge height was taken in the reference period (1988–2009). In the HBV-Light 3.0, a GAP optimization approach was used to calibrate the observed streamflow. From the precipitation scenarios with SRES A2 and A1B emissions at Kyanging, an increase of precipitation during summer and spring and a decrease during winter and autumn seasons was shown. The model projected annual precipitation for the 2050s of both the A2 and A1B scenarios are 716.4 mm and 703.6 mm, respectively. Such precipitation projections indicate the future increase of precipitation in all seasons except the summer. By the end of the 2050s simulation projects an increase maximum (minimum) discharge of 37.8 m3/s (13.9 m3/s) for A1B scenario and 36.2 m3/s (14.3 m3/s) for A2 scenario. A maximum projected discharge will increase for all seasons except for spring, whereas the minimum will decrease in summer.
Soil aggregation, erodibility and erosion rates in mountain soils (NW-Alps, Italy)
Authors: Stanchi S. , Falsone G. , Bonifacio E.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Erosion is a relevant soil degradation factor in mountain agrosilvopastoral ecosystems, and can be enhanced by the abandonment of agricultural land and pastures, then left to natural evolution. The on-site and off-site consequences of soil erosion at the catchment and landscape scale are particularly relevant and may affect settlements at the interface with mountain ecosystems. RUSLE (Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation) estimates of soil erosion consider, among others, the soil erodibility factor (K), which depends on properties involved in structure and aggregation. A relationship between soil erodibility and aggregation is therefore expected. Erosion is however expected to limit the development of soil structure, hence aggregates should not only be related to erodibility but also mirror soil erosion rates. We investigated the relationships between aggregate stability and the RUSLE erodibility and erosion rate in a mountain watershed at the interface with settlements, characterized by two different land use types (pasture and forest). Soil erodibility was in agreement with the aggregate stability parameters, i.e. the most erodible soils in terms of K values also displayed weaker aggregation. However, estimating K from aggregate loss showed that forest soils always had negative residuals, while the opposite happened for pastures. A good relationship between RUSLE soil erosion rates and aggregate stability occurred in pastures, while no relationship was visible in forests. Several hypotheses for this behavior were discussed. A relevant effect of the physical protection of the organic matter by the aggregates that cannot be considered in K computation was finally hypothesized in the case of pastures, while in forests soil erodibility seemed to keep trace of past erosion and depletion of finer particles. In addition, in forests, the erosion rate estimate was particularly problematic likely because of a high spatial variability of litter properties. Considering the relevance and extension of agrosilvopastoral ecosystems partly left to natural colonization, further studies might improve the understanding of the relationship among erosion, erodibility and structure.
Spatial variability of soil properties and soil erodibility in the Alqueva dam watershed, Portugal
Authors: Ferreira V. , Panagopoulos T. , Andrade R. , Guerrero C. , Loures L.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. The aim of this work is to investigate how the spatial variability of soil properties and soil erodibility (K factor) were affected by the changes in land use allowed by irrigation with water from a reservoir in a semiarid area. To this, three areas representative of different land uses (agroforestry grassland, Lucerne crop and olive orchard) were studied within a 900 ha farm. The interrelationships between variables were analyzed by multivariate techniques and extrapolated using geostatistics. The results confirmed differences between land uses for all properties analyzed, which was explained mainly by the existence of diverse management practices (tillage, fertilization and irrigation), vegetation cover and local soil characteristics. Soil organic matter, clay and nitrogen content decreased significantly, while K factor increased with intensive cultivation. The HJ-biplot methodology was used to represent the variation of soil erodibility properties grouped in land uses. Native grassland was the least correlated with the other land uses. K factor demonstrated high correlation mainly with very fine sand and silt. The maps produced with geostatistics were crucial to understand the current spatial variability in the Alqueva region. Facing the intensification of land-use conversion, a sustainable management is needed to introduce protective measures to control soil erosion.
Endogenous Histoplasma Capsulatum Endophthalmitis in An Immunocompetent Patient
Authors: Schlaen Ariel , Ingolotti Mariana , Couto Cristobal , Jacob Nestor , Pineda Gloria , Saravia Mario
Published: January 2015

Purpose

To report on a case of Histoplasma capsulatum endogenous endophthalmitis in an immunocompetent patient.

Methods

A 30-year-old patient was admitted with floaters and vision impairment of 1 month's duration. He had a history of adrenal insufficiency, together with nasal, septum, and soft palate lesions of 3 months; duration. Culture results from specimens of these lesions were positive for H capsulatum. He was human immunodeficiency virus negative and there was no evidence of immunodepression or history of immunosuppression. Fundus examination revealed multiple fluffy balls with a string of pearls appearance, 2+ vitreous haze, multiple foci of retinochoroiditis inferiorly in the peripheral retina, and a 6-disk area lesion of retinochoroiditis at the superotemporal periphery. Due to poor response to oral itraconazole, a vitrectomy was performed with an intraocular injection of amphotericin B 5 μg/0.1 mL and removal for a vitreous specimen for culture of bacteria and fungi.

Results

Vitreous specimen culture of the yeast at 28°C grew a white filamentous fungus colony, which was again cultured in a brain heart infusion agar medium, where it developed hyaline septate hyphae with microconidia and circular macroconidia with double wall, which was stained with a lactophenol dye at microscopic examination. The macroscopic morphology was consistent with H capsulatum.

Conclusions

Although endogenous H capsulatum endophthalmitis is a rare entity, it should be considered as a possible etiology even in apparently immunocompetent hosts, especially in patients with history of disseminated disease.
Eye Neoplasms Research: A Bibliometric Analysis from 1966 to 2012
Authors: Boudry Christophe , Mouriaux Fréderic
Published: January 2015

Purpose

To calculate the growth rate of the biomedical literature on eye neoplasms and to assess which journals, countries, and continents are the most productive.

Methods

PubMed was used to search for articles published from 1966 to 2012. Total number of articles per year was fitted to a linear equation as well as an exponential curve. To identify the core journals and predict the number of journals containing articles related to eye neoplasms, Bradford's law was applied. For each country and each continent, the gross domestic product (GDP) index (publications per $1 billion USD of GDP) and the population index (publications per million inhabitants) were calculated.

Results

A total of 27,943 references were retrieved. The growth in the number of publications showed a linear increase with a yearly average growth rate of 2.08%, which was lower than for the whole PubMed database (3.59%). Using Bradford's law, 17 core journals were identified, among which 2 journals produced more than 1000 articles (JAMA Ophthalmology and American Journal of Ophthalmology). Europe was the most productive continent, followed by North America and Asia. The United States was by far the predominant country in number of publications, followed by Germany and the United Kingdom. However, population and GDP indexes showed that absolute production did not reflect the production per capita or economic efficiency.

Conclusions

This bibliometric study provides data contributing to a better understanding of the eye neoplasm research field.
Proactive Surveillance Approach to Guarantee a Functional Arteriovenous Fistula at First Dialysis is Worth
Authors: Mufty Hozan , Claes Kathleen , Heye Sam , Fourneau Inge
Published: January 2015

Purpose

To evaluate the impact of a proactive surveillance program on functional access rate at the time of first dialysis.

Methods

In January 2010, a proactive surveillance program to intercept failures to mature was set up at the University Hospitals Leuven. Patients receiving an arteriovenous fistula (AVF) for pre-dialysis end-stage renal disease between January 2010 and May 2013 were retrospectively analyzed. The primary end-point was a functional AVF at first dialysis. Also, AVF- associated complications and reinterventions were analyzed. Furthermore, primary, assisted primary and secondary patency rates were estimated using Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

Results

One hundred sixty-four patients were included in the study. Patients were followed until first dialysis. Median follow-up time was 287 days (interquartile range, 108-551 days). During follow-up, 40 patients (24.4%) needed one or more additional interventions, resulting in 60 reinterventions. Ten patients needed dialysis within the minimal accepted maturation period of the AVF (4 weeks). Of the 154 patients who could await the maturation period of the AVF, 145 (94.2%) appeared ready for use at the time of dialysis or at the end of the study period. In 34 of them (22%), this was thanks to one or more interventions during follow-up.

Conclusions

A dedicated surveillance program of patients with AVFs in the pre-dialysis stadium detects failure to mature. Close coaching and proactive intervention can aid the patient in his own “fistula first” project.
Factors that Predict Increased Catheter Tip Movement in Left Internal Jugular Vein Implantable Venous Access Ports upon Standing
Authors: Wallace Joshua A. , Afonso Esteban , Yu Hyeon , Birchard Katherine , Isaacson Ari
Published: January 2015

Purpose

To determine the characteristics that predict catheter tip movement with positional changes in patients with left-sided, internal jugular vein (IJV) implantable venous access ports.

Methods

A retrospective review revealed 264 patients with left IJV ports placed at one academic institution from 2008 to 2013 with follow-up upright chest radiographs. Demographic information was recorded and anatomic measurements were made on both procedural fluoroscopic imaging and upright chest radiographs. Multivariate regression analysis was performed to determine which factors had statistically significant relationships with catheter tip movement distance.

Results

Mean catheter tip movement was 1.49 ± 1.97 cm. There was a statistically significant positive relationship between catheter tip movement distance and age (p = 0.03), body mass index (BMI) (p = 0.02), innominate vein angle (p<0.01) and dual- compared to single-lumen ports (p = 0.02). Port pocket location, venous access site and gender did not demonstrate statistical significance.

Conclusions

The factors associated with increased positional catheter tip movement for left IJV ports include patient age, BMI, innominate vein angle and dual- vs single-lumen port. This information can be useful in determining initial placement position and avoiding complications associated with catheter malposition.
TUBERCULOSE HUMANA CAUSADA PELO Mycobacterium bovis: CONSIDERAÇÕES GERAIS E A IMPORTÂNCIA DOS RESERVATÓRIOS ANIMAIS
Authors: DE MELO ABRAHÃO REGINA MAURA CABRAL
Published: January 2015

Visando conhecer os dados epidemiológicos, a etiologia, a patogenia, os recursos diagnósticos, os mecanismos de transmissão, o tratamento, a prevenção e o controle da tuberculose causada pelo Mycobacterium bovis no homem, em bovinos e em reservatórios animais, realizou-se uma extensa revisão bibliográfica para rever a situação da tuberculose humana causada por essa micobactéria, em termos mundiais, uma vez que os dados disponíveis no Brasil são precários. Evidenciou-se a necessidade de uma política de aporte de recursos materiais, humanos e financeiros, que envolvam uma cooperação internacional de órgãos vinculados à saúde pública, corroborando as recomendações da Organização Mundial da Saúde, divulgadas em Genebra em 1993. Abstract Aiming to collect all available data on the epidemiology, etiology, pathogeny, diagnostic methodology, transmission mechanisms, treatment, prevention and control of the tuberculosis caused by Mycobacterium bovis in man, bovine and animal reservoirs, an extensive bibliographical research has been carried out. This research allowed an up to date review on the worldwide human tuberculosis caused by that microorganism. From this study it became evident the need for human, material and financial resources and of an international cooperation of organs and agencies linked to public health entities in order to face the seriousness of this important problem, following the 1993 Geneva Recommendations from the World Health Organization.
MELHORAMENTO ANIMAL: PREDIÇÃO DE VALORES GENÉTICOS PELO MODELO ANIMAL-BLUP EM BOVINOS DE LEITE, BOVINOS DE CORTE, OVINOS E SUÍNOS
Authors: DE RESENDE MARCOS DEON VILLELA , PEREZ JESUS ROLANDO H. ROSA
Published: January 2015

Atualmente, o procedimento padrão de avaliação genética é o BLUP sob modelo animal. O presente trabalho apresenta aspectos práticos relativos à aplicação deste procedimento no melhoramento das principais espécies de animais domésticos. São abordados vários modelos animais e as várias medidas associadas aos valores genéticos preditos e à precisão das predições. Abstract Animal model  BLUP is the standard procedure for animals genetic evaluation. This paper deals with practical aspects concerning the application of this procedure for the improvement of the main species of domestic animals. Several animal models and measures associated to the predicted breeding values and accuracy of predictions are considered.
ESTOQUE DE RECURSOS ALIMENTARES EM Apis mellifera scutellata (Hym., Apidae)
Authors: PEGORARO ADHEMAR , MARQUES ELIAS N. , CHAVES NETO ANSELMO , FEDALTO LUIZ MÁRIO
Published: January 2015

Um dos principais objetivos do presente trabalho é o de estudar a seleção de Apis melifera scutellatas em razão de suas características genéticas. Para tal efeito, duas variáveis foram avaliadas: mel e pólen, bem como a separação de dois grupos, um grupo homogêneo superior e um grupo homogêneo inferior. Na área estudada (Mandirituba, Estado do Paraná), quatro estágios successivos de desenvolvimento secundário foram estabelecidos, as colônias sendo habitadas com iscas de captura em colmeias Langsthroth. O experimento foi delineado em blocos randomizados, a oferta de fontes de alimentos = néctar e pólen = estando na direta dependência das condições ambientais. Diferenças significantes foram encontradas entre as colônias, com relação às seguintes variáveis: área, mel e pólen. Abstract One of the aims of the present paper is to study Apis melifera scutellatas selection, because of its genetic characteristics. For this purpose, two variables were evaluated: honey and pollen as well as the separation of two groups namely the superior homogeneous group and the inferior homogeneous group. In the studied area (Mandirituba, State of Paraná), four stages of bees successional secondary development were established, the colonies being populated with capture baits in Langsthroths beehives. The experiment was delineated in randomized blocks, the bees availability for food resources = nectar and pollen = being in direct dependence of the environmental conditions. Significant differences were found among the colonies in regard to the following variables: area, honey and pollen.
AVALIAÇÃO DE PROBIÓTICOS DESENVOLVIDOS NA UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO PARANÁ COM FRANGOS DE CORTE
Authors: FRANCO SEBASTIÃO GONÇALVES , REQUE ELIZETE FÁTIMA , LEAL FILHO3; JAMIL MANOEL , FEDALTO LUIZ MÁRIO , WARPECHOWSKI MARSON BRUCK
Published: January 2015

O experimento teve como objetivo avaliar o uso como probiótico de diversas cepas de microorganismos desenvolvidas em laboratório. Foi usado o delineamento em blocos casualizados, utilizando 1600 aves sob os respectivos tratamentos: com antibiótico e sem probiótico; sem antibiótico ou probiótico; com probiótico A (L. fermentum LPB) e com probiótico B ("pool" de microorganismos). Não foram observadas diferenças significativas entre os tratamentos que continham ou não antibiótico ou probiótico, sem prejuízo ao desempenho dos frangos de corte. ABSTRACT An evaluation of the use of Probiotics developed at the Laboratory from many microorganism strains has been carried out. A total of 1600 broilers were used in a completely randomized block designed under four treatments: 1. Broilers treated with antibiotic but without probiotic; 2. Without antibiotic and without probiotic; 3. With probiotic A (Lactobacillus fermentum LPB); 4. With probiotic B (pool of microorganism strains: L. acidophillus, L. fermentum LPB, L. plantarum A6, Saccharomyces boullardii). No significant differences between the treatments with or without probiotics were observed in the results obtained which also showed no effect on the performance of the broilers.
ACOMPANHAMENTO DO PUERPÉRIO DE VACAS LEITEIRAS MEDIANTE EXAMES CLINICOS-REPRODUTIVOS E DETERMINAÇÃO DE PROGESTERONA POR RADIOIMUNOENSAIO
Authors: KOZICKI L. E. , SILVA M. A. , RIBEIRO F. L. , WOELLNER L.C. , CORTES V.M.
Published: January 2015

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Planning for Demand Uncertainty in Integrated Water Resource Management
Authors: Quay Ray
Published: January 2015

Because water supply and demand face equally uncertain futures, a strategy that considers their relationship and anticipates a range of possible future scenarios for these two fundamental aspects of water use might be the wisest approach for water resource managers.
Watersheds as Natural Infrastructure: New Urban Water Report Analyzes Benefits
Authors: Shemie Daniel
Published: January 2015

More than a decade ago, residents of New Mexico witnessed the devastation caused by the Cerro Grande fire. Perilous fuel loads from decades of fire suppression caused burning to last for two weeks, leaving in its wake a wasteland of destroyed homes, dead trees, and ash. One year after the fire, reservoir sediment accumulation was 140 times higher than the previous 57 years combined. Levels remained significantly elevated for five years, and costs to clean up damage to the water supply ran $17 million. Water managers in the city of Santa Fe, N.M., took heed and invested, alongside the United States Forest Service, in a forest fuel‐reduction strategy to protect its own watershed. This program helped the city avoid an estimated $22 million in potential damage.
P3: Navigating the Process
Authors: Fiveash John L. , Steinmeyer Edwin A.
Published: January 2015

In the AWWA report, Buried No Longer: Confronting America's Water Infrastructure Challenge, AWWA estimated that “[i]nvestment needs for buried drinking water infrastructure total more than $1 trillion nationwide over the next 25 years, assuming pipes are replaced at the end of their service lives and systems are expanded to serve growing populations.” Because traditional governmental revenues, municipal bond funding, and grant funding cannot keep up with these enormous infrastructure needs, many state and local governments are embracing public‐private partnerships (P3s), and local officials are being forced to learn the complexities of P3s as alternative funding sources.