bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Estimating the basal melt rate at NorthGRIP using a Monte Carlo technique
Authors: Buchardt Susanne L. , Dahl-Jensen Dorthe
Published: December 2007

From radio-echo sounding (RES) surveys and ice core data it can be seen that the ice sheet is melting at the base in a large area in Northern Greenland. The RES images reveal internal layers in the ice. The layers are former deposition surfaces and are thus isochrones. Undulations of the isochrones in regions where the base is smooth suggest that the basal melt rate changes over short distances. This indicates that the geothermal heat flux is very high and has large spatial variability in Northern Greenland. In this study, the basal melt rate at the NorthGRIP drill site in North-Central Greenland is calculated by inverse modelling. We use simple one- and two-dimensional flow models to simulate the ice flow along the NNW-trending ice ridge leading to NorthGRIP. The accumulation is calculated from a dynamical model. Several ice flow parameters are unknown and must be estimated along with the basal melt rate using a Monte Carlo method. The Monte Carlo inversion is constrained by the observed isochrones, dated from the timescale established for the NorthGRIP ice core. The estimates of the basal melt rates around NorthGRIP are obtained from both the one- and two-dimensional models. Combining the estimated basal melt rates with the observed borehole temperatures allows us to convert the basal melt rates to geothermal heat flow values. From the two-dimensional model we find the basal melt rate and geothermal heat flux at NorthGRIP to be 6.1 mma–1 and 129 mWm–2, respectively.
Volcano–ice interactions at Prestahnúkur, Iceland: rhyolite eruption during the last interglacial–glacial transition
Authors: McGarvie D.W. , Stevenson J.A. , Burgess R. , Tuffen H. , Tindle A.G.
Published: December 2007

Prestahnúkur is a 570m high rhyolite glaciovolcanic edifice in Iceland’s Western Rift Zone with a volume of 0.6 km3. Uniform whole rock, mineral and glass compositions suggest that Prestahnúkur was constructed during the eruption of one magma batch. Ar-Ar dating gives an age of 89± 24 ka, which implies eruption during the transition (Oxygen Isotope substages 5d to 5a) between the Eemian interglacial and the Weichselian glacial period. Prestahnu´kur is unique among published accounts of rhyolite tuyas because a base of magmatically-fragmented tephra appears to be absent. Instead, basal exposures consist of glassy lava lobes and coarse hyaloclastite, above which are single and multiple lava sheets with matrix-supported basal breccias and hyaloclastite upper carapaces. Steepening ramp structures at sheet termini are interpreted as ice-contact features. Interactions between erupting magma and water/ice have affected all lithologies. A preliminary model for the construction of Prestahnúkur involves an effusive subglacial eruption between 2–19 years duration which never became emergent, into an ice sheet over 700m thick. If 700m of ice had built up during this interglacial–glacial transition, this would corroborate models arguing for the swift accumulation of land-based ice in rapid response to global cooling.
Glacier–volcano interactions in the North Crater of Mt Wrangell, Alaska
Authors: Benson Carl , Motyka Roman , McNutt Stephen , Lüthi Martin , Truffer Martin
Published: December 2007

Glaciological and related observations from 1961 to 2005 at the summit of Mt Wrangell (62.00° N, 144.02°W; 4317m a.s.l.), a massive glacier-covered shield volcano in south-central Alaska, show marked changes that appear to have been initiated by the Great Alaska Earthquake (Mw = 9.2) of 27 March 1964. The 4×6 km diameter, ice-filled Summit Caldera with several post-caldera craters on its rim, comprises the summit region where annual snow accumulation is 1–2m of water equivalent and the mean annual temperature, measured 10 m below the snow surface, is –20°C. Precision surveying, aerial photogrammetry and measurements of temperature and snow accumulation were used to measure the loss of glacier ice equivalent to about 0.03 km3 of water from the North Crater in a decade. Glacier calorimetry was used to calculate the associated heat flux, which varied within the range 20–140Wm–2; total heat flow was in the range 20–100MW. Seismicity data from the crater’s rim show two distinct responses to large earthquakes at time scales from minutes to months. Chemistry of water and gas from fumaroles indicates a shallow magma heat source and seismicity data are consistent with this interpretation.
A new continuous high-resolution detection system for sulphate in ice cores
Authors: Bigler Matthias , Svensson Anders , Steffensen Jørgen Peder , Kaufmann Patrik
Published: December 2007

Sulphate (SO42–) is a major ion found in polar ice cores and is related to different aerosol sources and processes. Explosive volcanic eruptions, even far away, can cause distinct sulphate peaks in ice core records. Thus, a robust sulphate detection system which is suitable for fieldwork and which enables the measurement of sulphate at high temporal resolution is of great interest. In this study, we present the adaptation of a new continuous flow analysis system for sulphate that is based on a spectrophotometric method using dimethylsulfonazo III and an inline reactor column containing barium sulphate particles. The method shows a detection limit of ∽70 ng g–1 and a linear range up to at least 3000 ng g–1. It is simple, robust and less prone to interferences compared to the previously used method.
Modelling coupled hydraulics and sediment transport of a high-magnitude flood and associated landscape change
Authors: Carrivick Jonathan L.
Published: December 2007

Processes and mechanisms of erosion, transport and deposition within high-magnitude outburst floods such as jökulhlaups and lahars are poorly understood and remain largely unquantified. This study therefore applies a two-dimensional or depth-averaged hydrodynamic model, with fully integrated sediment transport, to reconstruct a Holocene jökulhlaup to have occurred from Kverkfjöll volcano, Iceland. Results indicate simultaneous inundation of multiple channels, flow around islands, hydraulic jumps and multi-directional flow including backwater areas and hydraulic ponding. These flow characteristics are typical of outburst floods that are volcanically triggered, flow through steep volcanic terrain and contain high concentrations of volcaniclastic sediment. Kverkfjöll jökulhlaups had low frontal flow velocities but as stage increased, velocities reached 5–15ms–1. Peak stage was prolonged in zones of hydraulic ponding, but generally attenuated in magnitude and duration downstream. Suspended load transport persisted over the entire hydrograph but bed load transport was spatially discontinuous and comprised distinct pulses. A hierarchy of landforms is proposed, ranging from highest energy zones (erosional gorges, scoured bedrock, cataracts and spillways) to lowest (valley-fills, bars and slackwater deposits). Bedrock erosion was generally where flow exceeded ∽3m flow depth, ∽7ms–1 flow velocity, ∽1×102Nm–2 shear stress and 3 ×102Wm–2 stream power. Deposition occurred below ∽8m flow depth, 11 ms–1 flow velocity, 5 ×102Nm–2 shear stress and 3 ×103Wm–2 stream power. Hydraulic ranges associated with erosion and deposition have considerable overlap due to transitional flow phenomena, transitions in sediment concentration and the influence of upstream effects, such as hydraulic ponding behind topographic constrictions. These results are the first of coupled hydraulic and sediment transport phenomena in high-magnitude outburst floods with fluid rheology and high sediment content, such as jökulhlaups and dilute lahars. Modelled changes in sediment mass closely resembled field-mapped zones of erosion and deposition. This paper therefore introduces a capability to simulate rapid landscape change due to high-magnitude outburst flood.
Habits of a glacier-covered volcano: seismicity patterns and velocity structure of Katla volcano, Iceland
Authors: Jónsdóttir Kristín , Tryggvason Ari , Roberts Roland , Lund Bjoörn , Soosalu Heidi , Böðvarsson Reynir
Published: December 2007

The Katla volcano, overlain by the Mýrdalsjökull glacier, is one of the most active and hazardous volcanoes in Iceland. Earthquakes show anomalous magnitude-frequency behaviour and mainly occur in two distinct areas: within the oval caldera and around Goðabunga, a bulge on its western flank. The seismicity differs between the areas; earthquakes in Goðabunga are low frequency and shallow whereas those beneath the caldera occur at greater depths and are volcano-tectonic. The seismicity shows seasonal variations but the rates peak at different times in the two areas. A snow budget model, which gives an estimate of the glacial loading, shows good correlation with seismic activity on an annual scale. Data recorded by the permanent network South Iceland Lowland (SIL), as well as by a temporary network, are used to invert for a 3D seismic velocity model underneath Eyjafjallajökull, Goðabunga and the Katla caldera. The tomography resolves a 15 km wide, aseismic, high-velocity structure at a depth of more than 4 km between the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in the west and the Katla volcano in the east. Anomalously low velocities are observed beneath the Katla caldera, which is interpreted as being a significantly fractured area of anomalously high temperature.
Heat transfer in volcano–ice interactions on Earth
Authors: Wilson L. , Head J.W.
Published: December 2007

The very high temperature contrast between magma/ lava and water ice commonly leads to the assumption that significant melting will take place immediately upon magma/ lava ice contact, yet observations of active flows show little evidence of voluminous melting upon contact. We use analytical thermal models to reassess the efficiency with which heat can be transferred from magma to ice in three situations: lava flows erupted on top of glacial ice, sill intrusions beneath glacial ice evolving into subglacial lava flows and dyke intrusions into the interiors of glaciers. We find that the maximum ratios of thickness of ice that can be melted to the thickness of magmatic heat source are likely to be ∽2–5 for subaerial lava flows encroaching onto glaciers, ∽6–7 for subglacial lava flows and ∽10 for dykes intruded into glacial ice. Rates of ice melt production are not linear functions of time and flow thickness, however, and this may account for the observations of minimal immediate water release from beneath advancing lava flows. Field observations during future eruptions should be directed at measuring the temperature of released water.
Survival of the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap through the Holocene thermal maximum: evidence from sulphur contents in Katla tephra layers (Iceland) from the last ∽8400 years
Authors: Oladottir Bergrun A. , Thordarson Thor , Larsen Gudrun , Sigmarsson Olgeir
Published: December 2007

The climate in Iceland was drier and warmer during the Holocene thermal maximum than it is today and it has been suggested that ice caps disappeared entirely. Katla, a volcano covered by the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap in southern Iceland, has erupted rather steadily throughout the Holocene. Pre-and post-eruption sulphur concentrations in its products have been determined in previous studies, through melt inclusions trapped in phenocrysts (pre-eruption mean values of 2155±165 ppm) and fully degassed magmatic tephra (post-eruption mean values of 445±130 ppm). The phreatomagmatic tephra has much more variable S contents (550–1775 ppm) and spans the compositional gap between magmatic tephra and melt inclusions. These variable sulphur values are attributed to arresting of degassing as the magma is quenched upon contact with external water in the shallow levels of the volcano conduit. Sulphur in Katla tephra can thus be used to evaluate whether Mýrdalsjökull survived the warm spells of the Holocene. In this study, sulphur concentrations in tephra layers representing the last ∽8400 years of the volcano’s eruption history were measured, revealing concentrations in the phreatomagmatic range (600–1600 ppm). Hence, we conclude that over the last ∽8400 years, explosive activity at Katla has been dominated by phreatomagmatic eruptions, implying that the Mýrdalsjökull ice cap has been present throughout the Holocene.
Modeling the dynamic response of a crater glacier to lava-dome emplacement: Mount St Helens, Washington, USA
Authors: Price Stephen F. , Walder Joseph S.
Published: December 2007

The debris-rich glacier that grew in the crater of Mount St Helens after the volcano’s cataclysmic 1980 eruption was split in two by a new lava dome in 2004. For nearly six months, the eastern part of the glacier was squeezed against the crater wall as the lava dome expanded. Glacier thickness nearly doubled locally and surface speed increased substantially. As squeezing slowed and then stopped, surface speed fell and ice was redistributed downglacier. This sequence of events, which amounts to a field-scale experiment on the deformation of debris-rich ice at high strain rates, was interpreted using a two-dimensional flowband model. The best match between modeled and observed glacier surface motion, both vertical and horizontal, requires ice that is about 5 times stiffer and 1.2 times denser than normal, temperate ice. Results also indicate that lateral squeezing, and by inference lava-dome growth adjacent to the glacier, likely slowed over a period of about 30 days rather than stopping abruptly. This finding is supported by geodetic data documenting dome growth.
Will subglacial rhyolite eruptions be explosive or intrusive? Some insights from analytical models
Authors: Tuffen H. , McGarvie D.W. , Gilbert J.S.
Published: December 2007

Simple analytical models of subglacial eruptions are presented, which simulate evolving subglacial cavities and volcanic edifices during rhyolitic eruptions beneath temperate glaciers. They show that the relative sizes of cavity and edifice may strongly influence the eruption mechanisms. Intrusive eruptions will occur if the edifice fills the cavity, with rising magma quenched within the edifice and slow melting of ice. Explosive magma–water interaction may occur if a water- or steam-filled gap develops above the edifice. Meltwater is assumed to drain away continuously, but any gap above the edifice will be filled by meltwater or steam. Ductile roof closure will occur if the glacier weight exceeds the cavity pressure and is modelled here using Nye’s law. The results show that the effusion rate is an important control on the eruption style, with explosive eruptions favoured by large effusion rates. The models are used to explain contrasting eruption mechanisms during various Quaternary subglacial rhyolite eruptions at Torfajökull, Iceland. Although the models are simplistic, they are first attempts to unravel the complex feedbacks between subglacial eruption mechanisms and glacier response that can lead to a variety of eruptive scenarios and associated hazards.
A full Stokes-flow thermo-mechanical model for firn and ice applied to the Gorshkov crater glacier, Kamchatka
Authors: Zwinger Thomas , Greve Ralf , Gagliardini Olivier , Shiraiwa Takayuki , Lyly Mikko
Published: December 2007

The Gorshkov crater glacier at Ushkovsky volcano, Kamchatka, is characterized by a large aspect ratio and special thermodynamic conditions at the bedrock caused by a locally enhanced and spatially varying geothermal heat flux. Furthermore, large parts of this glacier consist of firn rather than pure ice, which alters the rheological properties (such as viscosity and compressibility) of the glacier. We present a newly developed, thermo-mechanically coupled, three-dimensional flow model based on the finite-element (FE) modeling software Elmer, and apply it to the Gorshkov crater glacier. By assuming steady-state conditions, the present-day velocity field, temperature field, basal melting rate and age distribution are simulated. We find that flow velocities are generally small (tens of centimeters per year). Horizontal and vertical velocities are of comparable magnitude, which shows that the shallow-ice approximation is not applicable. Owing to the spatially variable volcanic heat flux, the thermal regime at the ice base is cold in the deeper parts of the glacier and temperate in the shallower parts. The measured temperature profile and age horizons at the K2 borehole are reproduced quite well, and remaining discrepancies may be attributed to transient (non-steady-state) conditions. Firn compressibility is identified as a crucial element for the modeling approach.
Heat transfer in volcano–ice interactions on Mars: synthesis of environments and implications for processes and landforms
Authors: Head James W. , Wilson Lionel
Published: December 2007

We review new advances in volcano–ice interactions on Mars and focus additional attention on (1) recent analyses of the mechanisms of penetration of the cryosphere by dikes and sills; (2) documentation of the glacial origin of huge fan-shaped deposits on the northwest margins of the Tharis Montes and evidence for abundant volcano–ice interactions during the later Amazonian period of volcanic edifice construction and (3) the circumpolar Hesperian-aged Dorsa Argentea Formation, interpreted as an ice sheet and displaying marginal features (channels, lakes and eskers) indicative of significant melting and interior features interpreted to be due to volcano–ice interactions (e.g. subglacial volcanic edifices, pits, basins, channels and eskers). In this context, we describe and analyse several stages and types of volcano–ice interactions: (1) magmatic interactions with ice-rich parts of the cryosphere; (2) subglacial volcanism represented by intrusion under and into the ice and formation of dikes and moberg-like ridges, intrusion of sills at the glacier–volcano substrate interface and their evolution into subglacial lava flows, formation of subglacial edifices, marginal melting and channels; (3) synglacial (ice contact) volcanism represented by flows banking up against glacier margins, chilling and forming remnant ridges and (4) post-glacial volcanism and interactions with ice deposits.
Glacier retreat during the recent eruptive period of Popocaté petl volcano, Mexico
Authors: Andrés Nuria , Zamorano Josè J. , Sanjosé Josè J. , Atkinson Alan , Palacios David
Published: December 2007

Popocatépetl (19°02’ N, 98°62’W; 5424 m) is one of the largest active stratovolcanoes in the Transmexican Volcanic Belt. A glacier located on the north side has undergone severe ablation since the volcano reinitiated eruptive activity in December 1994. In our study, we calculate the extent of the glacier recession and the loss in glacial mass balance during the period of greatest laharic activity (1994–2002), using photogrammetric treatment of 20 pairs of aerial photographs. The results indicate that from November 1997 to December 2002, the glacier released approximately 3 967 000 m3 of water. A period of intense glacier melting occurred from 4 November 2000 to 15 March 2001 during which time 717 000 m3 of water was released. Much of the melting was attributed to the pyroclastic flow that took place on 22 January 2001 and produced a 14.2 km lahar with 68 000 m3 of water. Among the many types of volcanic events, pyroclastic flows were the most effective in causing sudden snowmelt, although small explosions were also effective since they deposited incandescent material on the glacier. The collapse of the plinian columns covered the glacier with pyroclasts and increased its volume. The existence of control points for georeferencing and a knowledge of the topography underlying the glacier previous to the eruption would have provided more accurate and useful results for hazard prevention.
Whither Arctic sea ice? A clear signal of decline regionally, seasonally and extending beyond the satellite record
Authors: Meier Walter N. , Stroeve Julienne , Fetterer Florence
Published: December 2007

The Arctic sea ice has been pointed to as one of the first and clearest indicators of climate change. Satellite passive microwave observations from 1979 through 2005 now indicate a significant –8.4±1.5% decade–1 trend (99% confidence level) in September sea-ice extent, a larger trend than earlier estimates due to acceleration of the decline over the past 41 years. There are differences in regional trends, with some regions more stable than others; not all regional trends are significant. The largest trends tend to occur in months where melt is at or near its peak for a given region. A longer time series of September extents since 1953 was adjusted to correct biases and extended through 2005. The trend from the longer time series is –7.7±0.6% decade–1 (99%), slightly less than from the satellite-derived data that begin in 1979, which is expected given the recent acceleration in the decline.
Geometry change between 1990 and 2003 at Finsterwalderbreen, a Svalbard surge-type glacier, from GPS profiling
Authors: Hodgkins Richard , Fox Adrian , Nuttall Anne-Marie
Published: December 2007

Surface mass-balance and geometry data are key to quantifying the climate response of glaciers, and confidence in data synthesis and model interpretations and forecasts requires data from as wide a range of locations and glacier types as possible. This paper presents measurements of surface elevation change at the Svalbard surge-type glacier Finsterwalderbreen, by comparing a 1990 digital elevation model (DEM) with a surface GPS profile from 2003. The pattern of elevation change is consistent with that previously noted between 1970 and 1990, and reflects the continued quiescent-phase evolution of the glacier, with mass loss in the down-glacier/receiving area of up to –1.25mw.e. a–1, and mass gain in the up-glacier/reservoir area of up to 0.60 mw.e. a–1; the area-weighted, mean change for the whole glacier is 0.19mw.e. a–1. The spatial pattern of elevation increase and decrease is complex, and the boundary between thickening and thinning determined by combining GPS and DEM data does not appear to correspond with the equilibrium-line altitude determined from surface mass-balance measurements. There is no evidence yet of a decrease in the rate of reservoir area build-up driven by mass-balance change resulting from the warmer winter air temperatures, and decreased proportion of snowfall in total precipitation, noted at meteorological stations in Svalbard.
Glaciological conditions in seven contrasting regions estimated with the degree-day model
Authors: Braithwaite Roger J. , Raper Sarah C.B.
Published: December 2007

We apply the degree-day model to seven glacial regions that offer contrasting conditions and are well documented in the World Glacier Inventory. The regions are: Axel Heiberg Island in Arctic Canada; Svalbard; northern Scandinavia; southern Norway; the Alps; the Caucasus; and New Zealand. We estimate the average equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) for each half-degree latitude/longitude grid square from the median elevations of glaciers within the square and we extrapolate temperature from the UEA/CRU (Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia) gridded climatology. Using the degree-day model, we calculate annual accumulation at the ELA, equal to ablation at the ELA, and other quantities like summer mean temperature, length of melt season, balance gradients and the sensitivity of mass balance to temperature and/or precipitation changes. Glaciers can be characterized on a scale from cold-dry (Axel Heiberg Island) to warm-wet (New Zealand) corresponding to the contrast between maritime and continental climates. Mass-balance sensitivities to temperature and/or precipitation changes are relatively small for dry-cold climate and relatively high for warm-wet climate. We could extend the approach to other glacier regions but we note that there are large areas for which ELA data are not available as they are still not covered by the World Glacier Inventory.
Energy-balance model validation on the top of Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, using eddy covariance data
Authors: Cullen Nicolas J. , Mölg Thomas , Kaser Georg , Steffen Konrad , Hardy Douglas R.
Published: December 2007

Eddy covariance data collected over a horizontal surface on the largest ice body on Kilimanjaro, Tanzania, over 26–29 July 2005 were used to assess the uncertainty of calculating sublimation with a surface energy balance (SEB) model. Data required for input to the SEB model were obtained from an existing automatic weather station. Surface temperatures that were solved iteratively by the SEB model were used to compute emitted longwave radiation, turbulent heat fluxes using the aerodynamic bulk method and the subsurface heat flux. Roughness lengths for momentum and temperature, which were found to be the most important input parameters controlling the magnitude of modelled (bulk method) turbulent heat fluxes, were obtained using eddy covariance data. The roughness length for momentum was estimated to be 1.7×10–3 m, while the length for temperature was one order of magnitude smaller. Modelled sensible and latent heat fluxes (bulk method) compared well to eddy covariance data, with root-mean-square differences between 3.1 and 4.8 Wm–2 for both turbulent heat fluxes. Modelled sublimation accounted for about 90% of observed ablation, confirming that mass loss by melting is much less important than sublimation on the horizontal surfaces of the remaining plateau glaciers on Kilimanjaro.
20th-century variations in area of cirque glaciers and glacierets, Rocky Mountain National Park, Rocky Mountains, Colorado, USA
Authors: Hoffman Matthew J. , Fountain Andrew G. , Achuff Jonathan M.
Published: December 2007

Comparison of historic maps and aerial and ground-based photographs for the small cirque glaciers and glacierets of Rocky Mountain National Park in the northern Front Range of Colorado, USA, indicates modest change during the 20th century. The glaciers retreated through the first half of the 20th century, advanced slightly from the mid-1940s to the end of the century and have retreated slightly since. High interannual variability in area and temporal gaps in data complicate the trends. Local climate records indicate a lack of systematic change between 1950 and 1975, but significant warming afterwards. Local topographic effects (e.g. wind redistribution of snow and avalanching) are important influences. These small glaciers respond to changes in regional climate; summer temperature alone is a good predictor of the mass balance of Andrews Glacier (r = -0.93). Spring snowfall is also an important factor. That winter precipitation is not statistically significant supports the notion that these small glaciers gain much snow from wind drift and avalanching, making winter snow accumulation almost indifferent to variations in direct snowfall. Less than expected glacier retreat may be due to increased summer cloudiness.
Sensitivity of glacier runoff to summer snowfall events
Authors: Escher-Vetter Heidi , Siebers Matthias
Published: December 2007

In order to investigate the effect of changing precipitation type on glacier discharge due to air-temperature changes, the relation between summer snowfall and runoff is surveyed for the Vernagtbach basin, Austria, (2640–3630ma.s.l.; ~72% glaciated) for the period 1976–2005. Precipitation data were evaluated for each ablation season with respect to amount and type; the latter derived mainly from daily photographs of the catchment, but validated over 4 years with additional meteorological data. Winter snowfall amounts were determined on the basis of mass-balance measurements. Average ablation period air temperature showed a rise of 1.5 K from 1976 to 2005, and runoff increased from about 1100 mmw.e. to 2200 mmw.e. Snowfall amounts during the ablation period decreased between 1976 and 1991, but increased from 1992 to 2005, indicating a large year-to-year variation. The number of days with snowfall varies even more, with no clear trend discernible. The evolution of runoff is only partly explained by precipitation type during the ablation season, and accumulation amounts during winter deliver a not unambiguous picture. More important is the development of the ablation area from about 20% of glacier size in the 1970s to 100% in 2003.
Mass balance of Devon Ice Cap, Canadian Arctic
Authors: Shepherd Andrew , Du Zhijun , Benham Toby J. , Dowdeswell Julian A. , Morris Elizabeth M.
Published: December 2007

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar data show that Devon Ice Cap (DIC), northern Canada, is drained through a network of 11 glacier systems. More than half of all ice discharge is through broad flows that converge to the southeast of the ice cap, and these are grounded well below sea level at their termini. A calculation of the ice-cap mass budget reveals that the northwestern sector of DIC is gaining mass and that all other sectors are losing mass. We estimate that a 12 489 km2 section of the main ice cap receives 3.46±0.65 Gt of snowfall each year, and loses 3.11±0.21 Gt of water through runoff, and 1.43±0.03 Gt of ice through glacier discharge. Altogether, the net mass balance of DIC is –1.08±0.67 Gt a–1. This loss corresponds to a 0.003 mma–1 contribution to global sea levels, and is about half the magnitude of earlier estimates.
Volume–area scaling vs flowline modelling in glacier volume projections
Authors: Radić Valentina , Hock Regine , Oerlemans Johannes
Published: December 2007

Volume–area scaling provides a practical alternative to ice-flow modelling to account for glacier size changes when modelling the future evolution of glaciers; however, uncertainties remain as to the validity of this approach under non-steady conditions. We address these uncertainties by deriving scaling exponents in the volume–area relationship from one-dimensional ice-flow modelling. We generate a set of 37 synthetic steady-state glaciers of different sizes, and then model their volume evolution due to climate warming and cooling as prescribed by negative and positive mass-balance perturbations, respectively, on a century timescale. The scaling exponent derived for the steady-state glaciers (γ = 1.56) differs from the exponents derived for the glaciers in transient (non-steady) state by up to 86%. Nevertheless, volume projections employing volume–area scaling are relatively insensitive to these differences in scaling exponents. Volume–area scaling agrees well with the results from ice-flow modelling. In addition, the scaling method is able to simulate the approach of a glacier to a new steady state, if mass-balance elevation feedback is approximated by removing or adding elevation bands at the lowest part of the glacier as the glacier retreats or advances. If area changes are approximated in the mass-balance computations in this way, our results indicate that volume–area scaling is a powerful tool for glacier volume projections on multi-century timescales.
Long-term change of mass balance and the role of radiation
Authors: Ohmura Atsumu , Bauder Andreas , Müller Hans , Kappenberger Giovanni
Published: December 2007

The effect of climate change in the 20th century is investigated based on measured mass-balance data. Annual, winter and summer mass balances on Claridenfirn, Switzerland, (since 1914/15) Storglaciären, Sweden, (since 1945/46) Storbreen, Norway, (since 1948/49) Glacier de Sarennes, France, (since 1948/49) and Vernagtferner, Austria, (since 1965/66) are studied with air temperature at high-altitude stations and the longest records of solar global radiation in Europe. The mean mass balances of these glaciers during the 20th century were mostly negative except for the first two decades. The fluctuating mass balance reaches the minimum (largest loss) and maximum (almost equilibrium) around 1940 and 1980, respectively, with a drastic loss in the last 15 years. These variations are mostly steered by the variation in summer mass balance. The change in the summer mass balance is determined to 72% by temperature and the remaining 28% by solar radiation. During the colder period (e.g. 1960–80), the reduction in solar radiation counteracted the warming trend due to the greenhouse effect. Since 1990 the greenhouse effect of terrestrial radiation and the global brightening effect of solar radiation have both been acting to accelerate the melt, resulting in the unprecedented mass loss of the observational era. The glacier mass balance during the 20th century clearly reacted towards temperature and solar radiation changes, which reflected the greenhouse effect and aerosol and cloud variations.
Temperature variations over the past millennium on the Tibetan Plateau revealed by four ice cores
Authors: Yao Tandong , Duan Keqin , Thompson L.G. , Wang Ninglian , Tian Lide , Xu Baiqing , Wang Youqing , Yu Wusheng
Published: December 2007

Temperature variation on the Tibetan Plateau over the last 1000 years has been inferred using a composite δ18O record from four ice cores. Data from a new ice core recovered from the Puruogangri ice field in the central Tibetan Plateau are combined with those from three other cores (Dunde, Guliya and Dasuopu) recovered previously. The ice-core δ18O composite record indicates that the temperature change on the whole Tibetan Plateau is similar to that in the Northern Hemisphere on multi-decadal timescales except that there is no decreasing trend from AD 1000 to the late 19th century. The δ18O composite record from the northern Tibetan Plateau, however, indicates a cooling trend from AD 1000 to the late 19th century, which is more consistent with the Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. The δ18O composite record reveals the existence of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age (LIA) on the Tibetan Plateau. However, on the Tibetan Plateau the LIA is not the coldest period during the last millennium as in other regions in the Northern Hemisphere. The present study indicates that the 20th-century warming on the Tibetan Plateau is abrupt, and is warmer than at any time during the past 1000 years.
Glacier mass-balance fluctuations in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, USA
Authors: Josberger Edward G. , Bidlake William R. , March Rod S. , Kennedy Ben W.
Published: December 2007

The more than 40 year record of net and seasonal mass-balance records from measurements made by the United States Geological Survey on South Cascade Glacier, Washington, and Wolverine and Gulkana Glaciers, Alaska, shows annual and interannual fluctuations that reflect changes in the controlling climatic conditions at regional and global scales. As the mass-balance record grows in length, it is revealing significant changes in previously described glacier mass-balance behavior, and both inter-glacier and glacier–climate relationships. South Cascade and Wolverine Glaciers are strongly affected by the warm and wet maritime climate of the northeast Pacific Ocean. Their net balances have generally been controlled by winter accumulation, with fluctuations that are strongly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Recently, warm dry summers have begun to dominate the net balance of the two maritime glaciers, with a weakening of the correlation between the winter balance fluctuations and the PDO. Non-synchronous periods of positive and negative net balance for each glacier prior to 1989 were followed by a 1989–2004 period of synchronous and almost exclusively negative net balances that averaged –0.8m for the three glaciers.
Long-term change, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in climate and glacier mass balance in the central Greater Caucasus, Russia
Authors: Shahgedanova M. , Popovnin V. , Aleynikov A. , Petrakov D. , Stokes C.R.
Published: December 2007

Long-term trends, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in the mass-balance record from Djankuat glacier, central Greater Caucasus, Russia, are related to local climate change, synoptic and large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation. A clear warming signal emerged in the central Greater Caucasus in the early 1990s, leading to a strong increase in ablation. In the absence of a compensating change in winter accumulation, the net mass balance of Djankuat has declined. The highest value of seasonal ablation on record was registered in the summer of 2000. At the beginning of the 21st century these trends reversed. Ablation was below average even in the summer of 2003, which was unusually warm in western Europe. Precipitation and winter accumulation were high, allowing for a partial recovery of net mass balance. The interannual variability in the components of mass balance is weakly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian teleconnection patterns, but there is a clear link with the large-scale circulation anomalies represented by the Rossby pattern. Five synoptic categories have been identified for the ablation season of 2005, revealing a strong separation between components of radiation budget, air temperature and daily melt. Air temperature is the main control over melt. The highest values of daily ablation are related to the strongly positive NAO which forces high net radiation, and to the warm and moist advection from the Black Sea.
Investigations of meltwater refreezing and density variations in the snowpack and firn within the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet
Authors: Parry Victoria , Nienow Peter , Mair Douglas , Scott Julian , Hubbard Bryn , Steffen Konrad , Wingham Duncan
Published: December 2007

The mass balance of polythermal ice masses is critically dependent on the proportion of surface-generated meltwater that subsequently refreezes in the snowpack and firn. In order to quantify this effect and to characterize its spatial variability, we measured near-surface (<10 m) snow and firn densities at an elevation of ~1945ma.s.l. in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet in spring and autumn 2004. Results indicate that local snowpack depth above the previous end-of-summer 2003 melt surface increased by ±5% (7.6 cm) from spring to autumn while, over the same period, snowpack density increased by >26%, resulting in a 32% increase in net accumulation. This ‘seasonal densification’ increased at lower elevations, rising to 47% 10 km closer to the ice-sheet margin at 1860ma.s.l. Density/depth profiles from nine sites within 1 km2 at ~1945ma.s.l. reveal complex stratigraphies that change over short spatial scales and seasonally. We conclude that estimates of mass-balance change cannot be calculated solely from observed changes in surface elevation, but that near-surface densification must also be considered. However, predicting spatial and temporal variations in densification may not be straightforward. Further, the development of complex firn-density profiles both masks discernible annual layers in the near-surface firn and ice stratigraphy and is likely to introduce error into radar-derived estimates of surface elevation.
Glacier changes in the Austrian Alps during the last three decades, derived from the new Austrian glacier inventory
Authors: Lambrecht A. , Kuhn M.
Published: December 2007

Beginning in 1996, aerial photographs were taken for a new Austrian glacier inventory, resulting in digital elevation models (DEMs) and digital orthoimages. An earlier inventory of the Austrian glaciers containing the original aerial photographs and glacier maps and a manual evaluation of various glacier parameters as of 1969 has been re-evaluated at the present state of the art. The two inventories provide the basis for the comparison of glacier reactions over a period of 29 years. In general a reduction of glacier area is observed for almost all Austrian glaciers between 1969 and 1998. The overall reduction in ice-covered area is 17%. The glacier volume change calculated from the DEMs amounts to about 5 km3. This is almost 22% of the ice volume in Austria in 1969, estimated from a volume–area relation. Changes of individual glaciers, however, show a wide variability, depending on their size and physiographic setting.
Sea-ice thickness in the Weddell Sea, Antarctica: a comparison of model and upward-looking sonar data
Authors: Renner Angelika H.H. , Lytle Victoria
Published: December 2007

Sea-ice thickness is a key parameter for estimates of salt fluxes to the ocean and the contribution to global thermohaline circulation. Observations of sea-ice thickness in the Southern Ocean are sparse and difficult to collect. An exception to this data gap is time-series data from upward-looking sonars (ULS) which sample the drifting sea ice continuously. In this study we use ULS data from ten different locations over periods ranging from 9 to 25 months to compare with model data. Although these data are limited in space and time, they provide a qualitative indication of the ability of global climate models (GCMs) to adequately represent Southern Ocean sea ice. We compare the ULS data to output from four different GCMs (BCCR-BCM2.0, ECHAM5/MPI-OM, UKMO-HadCM3 and NCAR CCSM3) which were used for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. They simulate the ice thickness reasonably well, but in most cases average model ice thickness is less than thicknesses derived from ULS data. The seasonal cycle produced by the models correlates well with the ULS except for locations near Maud Rise, where in summer the ULS find a low concentration of thick ice floes. This overly thin ice will have implications for both the salt flux to the central Weddell Sea during the growth season and the freshwater flux during the melt season. Using satellite-derived ice-drift data to calculate transports in the Weddell Sea, we find that the underestimation of ice thickness results in underestimated salt fluxes.
A time series of SAR data for monitoring changes in boundaries of glacier zones on the Antarctic Peninsula
Authors: Arigony-Neto Jorge , Rau Frank , Saurer Helmut , Jaña Ricardo , Simões Jefferson Cardia , Vogt Steffen
Published: December 2007

Drastic changes have been detected in glacial systems of the Antarctic Peninsula in the last few decades and are well documented in numerous scientific publications. However, the spatial and temporal distribution of glacier changes on the Antarctic Peninsula remains largely restricted to ice fronts. To expand the current monitoring of a few glaciers, unevenly distributed along the peninsula, to a representative set, we developed a method to simplify the detection of boundaries between glacier zones using satellite SAR data. The evolution of glacier zones is greatly influenced by local and regional climatic and meteorological settings. Their variations in response to changes in energy or mass balance are considered as good indicators of climatic changes. In this paper, we describe the results of knowledge-based image analysis algorithms on test areas located at Trinity Peninsula and near Marguerite Bay. In general, the two analyzed areas show different patterns of glacier zone development. The bare-ice zone occurs mainly on glaciers located on the eastern side of Trinity Peninsula. Its upper boundary shows a good correlation with the mean summer air temperature. Finally, the position of the dry-snow line shows different spatial patterns of change in both study areas.
The response of a simple Antarctic ice-flow model to temperature and sea-level fluctuations over the Cenozoic era
Authors: Van Tuyll C.I. , Van De Wal R.S.W. , Oerlemans J.
Published: December 2007

An ice-flow model is used to simulate the Antarctic ice-sheet volume and deep-sea temperature record during Cenozoic times. We used a vertically integrated axisymmetric ice-sheet model, including bedrock adjustment. In order to overcome strong numerical hysteresis effects during climate change, the model is solved on a stretching grid. The Cenozoic reconstruction of the Antarctic ice sheet is accomplished by splitting the global oxygen isotope record derived from benthic foraminifera into an ice-volume and a deep-sea temperature component. The model is tuned to reconstruct the initiation of a large ice sheet of continental size at 34 Ma. The resulting ice volume curve shows that small ice caps (<107 km3) could have existed during Paleocene and Eocene times. Fluctuations during the Miocene are large, indicating a retreat back from the coast and a vanishing ice flux across the grounding line, but with ice volumes still up to 60% of the present-day volume. The resulting deep-sea temperature curve shows similarities with the paleotemperature curve derived from Mg/Ca in benthic calcite from 25 Ma till the present, which supports the idea that the ice volume is well reproduced for this period. Before 34 Ma, the reproduced deep-sea temperature is slightly higher than is generally assumed. Global sea-level change turns out to be of minor importance when considering the Cenozoic evolution of the ice sheet until 5 Ma.
River-ice break-up/freeze-up: a review of climatic drivers, historical trends and future predictions
Authors: Prowse T.D. , Bonsal B.R. , Duguay C.R. , Lacroix M.P.
Published: December 2007

River ice plays a fundamental role in biological, chemical and physical processes that control freshwater regimes of the cold regions. Moreover, it can have enormous economic implications for river-based developments. All such activities and processes can be modified significantly by any changes to river-ice thickness, composition or event timing and severity. This paper briefly reviews some of the major hydraulic, mechanical and thermodynamic processes controlling river-ice events and how these are influenced by variations in climate. A regional and temporal synthesis is also made of the observed historical trends in river-ice break-up/freeze-up occurrence from the Eurasian and North American cold regions. This involves assessment of several hydroclimatic variables that have influenced past trends and variability in river-ice break-up/freeze-up dates including air-temperature indicators (e.g. seasonal temperature, 0˚C isotherm dates and various degree-days) and large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns or teleconnections. Implications of future climate change on the timing and severity of river-ice events are presented and discussed in relation to the historical trends. Attention is drawn to the increasing trends towards the occurrence of mid-winter break-up events that can produce especially severe flood conditions but prove to be the most difficult type of event to model and predict.
Assessing the possibility to couple the chemical signal in winter snow on Storglaciären, Sweden, to atmospheric climatology
Authors: Jansson Peter , Linderholm Hans W. , Pettersson Rickard , Karlin Torbjörn , Mörth Carl-Magnus
Published: December 2007

Winter accumulation on glaciers in temperate to sub-arctic climate regimes is determined by both precipitation and snowdrifting during repeated events during any particular winter. Since glacier mass balance is calculated from the sum of winter and summer balance, and summer balance can be modeled with high accuracy, identification of the coupling between atmospheric circulation and winter balance is essential in order to fully understand the climate information hidden in the glacier mass-balance records. We have sampled snow cores from Storglaciären, Sweden, to examine identifiable chemical signatures to link these with up-wind sources in an attempt to quantify how much accumulation occurs under given atmospheric conditions. The snow samples reveal that several different chemical signatures occur but that identifying their source is not trivial, although only few but distinct sources exist. The relationship between the identified strata of a given signature is difficult to couple to recorded precipitation events because the crucial timing of deposition is lacking in our investigation. If time control on snow deposition is available, the combination of snow chemistry, meteorological and climatological data is a promising tool for evaluating the coupling between snow accumulation and atmospheric circulation.