bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Les imitations des monnaies frappées par Henri Ier (925-936) à Verdun. Problèmes de circulation monétaire en Haute-Lorraine (Xe-XIIIe s.)
Authors: Petry Klaus
Published: October 2008

Résumé. — Nach der Wiedereingliederung Lothringens in das ostfrânkische Reich lief! Kônig Heinrich I. (925-936) in Verdun Mťinzen pragen, deren Munzbild mit der typi- schen Legendenanordnung « REX im Feld » bereits von seinem Vorgànger Charles le Simple hier benutzt wurde. Die wenigen erhaltenen Originalstucke lassen allerdings nur auf eine geringfiigige Auspràgung schlieBen. Daher ist es umso erstaunlicher, daC etwa zwei Generationen spàter zahlreiche Nachahmungen dieser Miinzen sowohl in den Funden Westlothringens mit Schwerpunkten im Verdunois, der Maas entlang bis weit in die Picardie auftreten, wie auch in den Funden der « Fernhandelsdenarszone » ostlich der Elbe, wo sie ab ca. 996 nachweisbar sind. Da die westliche Fundverbreitung mit der Zielrichtung der aggressiven Aus- dehnungspolitik der Grafen von Bar nahezu identisch ist, die sich vornehmlich gegen das Bistum Verdun richtete, sind diese als die Miinzherren anzusprechen, die mit der massenhaften Ausgabe der meist minderwertigen Nachmiinzen die Wirtschaftskraft Verduns entscheidend schwâchten und die bischofliche Miinzpràgung unter B. Albero um 1131/32 sogar zum Erliegen brachten. Die Fundverbreitung in der Picardie erklàrt sich mit der auffallenden Áhnlichkeit mit dem Munzbild der dort umlaufenden Munzen von Amiens. Die Nachprágungen in den ostelbischen Funden wurden dagegen nach jíingster Ansicht vielleicht in niederlothringischen Ateliers nôrdlich von Deventer ge- schlagen. Ein Vergleich zwischen der oberlothringischen Fundlandschaft und der Auswertung der schriftlichen Quellen zeigte weiterhin, daB franzósische Munzen zwar urkundlich haufig erwahnt werden, sie als Beimischungen in den oberlothringischen Funden jedoch nur selten anzutreffen sind und wenn, dann meist als eigener, geschlossener Fundkom- plex. Diese Diskrepanz zwischen schriftlicher Ůberlieferung und Fundevidenz fuhrte zur Hypothèse, dafi dem franzósischen Geld hauptsáchlich die Rolle eines « Exportgel- des» zukam, das nach kurzem Umlauf wieder umgeschmolzen wurde, wahrend das Vertrauen der Bevôlkerung in die einheimische Wáhrung zu ihrer Thesaurierung fuhrte, wobei die billonhaltigen Nachmiinzen vom Verduner Typ fur die alltàglichen Geldtransaktionen der sozial schwácheren Schichten benutzt wurden.
A hoard of antoniniani from the Mount of Olives
Authors: Sweeney William B. , Visonà Paolo
Published: October 2008

Summary. — A small group of antoniniani found on the Mount of Olives (Jerusalem) between 1886-1891 includes 1 specimen of Quietus, Antioch mint, 11 specimens of Gallienus and Claudius II, and 2 DIVOCLAVDIO issues, all from western mints. The hoard was concealed in the early 270s.
The Royal Seleucid Mint of Aegae in Aeolia
Authors: Houghton Arthur
Published: October 2008

Résumé. — The article discusses the limited coinage of Antiochus II (261-246 B.C.) that can securely be attributed to Aegae in Aeolia. The two principal series of Aegae's Seleucid include twenty-two coins that can be divided into nine issues. Western Seleucid Minis 1510, a tetradrachm issue with the obverse representation of Antiochus I and reverse type of Heracles seated on a rock that E. T. Newell gave to Aegeae, is here reassigned to Temnos. The known coins of Aegae now indicate that this city was not acquired by Pergamům until some years after the peace of 252 B.C. that brought an end to the Second Syrian War.
À propos de la géographie administrative sassanide
Authors: Gignoux Philippe
Published: October 2008

Résumé. — En rendant compte d'un important livre, paru récemment sur la géographie administrative d'époque sassanide tardive l'a. ajoute ses lectures de deux nouvelles empreintes de sceaux, connus seulement depuis la publication de cet ouvrage.
La numismatique gauloise en Gaule Belgique. Problématique et axes de recherche
Authors: Delestrée Louis Pol
Published: October 2008

Zusamenfassung. — Die Untersuchung der gallischen Munzen gehôrt zur Vorges- chichtswissenschaft und mup immer enger mit der archâologischen Forschung verbunden werden. Auf diesem Gebiet kann — zumindest im « Belgium » — die Numismatik kaum noch Fortschritte machen, wenn nicht unsere Kenntnis der End- La-Tène-Zeit herangezogen wird, von der sie nur einer der Bestandteile ist. Dieser Beitrag, dem zwanzig Jahre Arbeiten auf den Fundstâtten und vor allem in den Sanktuarien durchgefuhrte Ausgrabungen im Nordwesten zugrundeliegen, zeigt, wie schon spurbar zeitgenôssische Auff assungen und Tatsachen auseinandergehen. Dièse erste Bilanz vermag die herkómmliche Meinung uber Typologie, Zuordnung, Umlauf und Chronologie der Munzen in Nordgallien (Nord-West-Frankreich) ziemlich grund- legend zu veràndern.
Le thesaurus de Sora
Authors: Catalli Fiorenzo , Scheid John
Published: October 2008

Il contenuto di un tesoro scoperto nell'asse di un tempio a Sora (Lazio) appartiene alla circolazione dell'epoca di Caligola. Il confronto délia sua posizione con quella di altri esemplari da ulteriori chiarimenti sulla funzione dei thesauri.
Coins of the mint of London from the Boursies hoard (313/314)
Authors: Stewartby Lord
Published: October 2008

Summary. — With the encouragement of Dr Laf aurie, who compiled a detailed (but unpublished) catalogue of the hoard many years ago, the author has prepared a summary list of the London coins from the Boursies find of 1962. These are mostly with the mintmark PLN and star, dated to the period 311-313. On the basis of obverse die-links between coins with different reverse types it is argued that types with the star to the left of the figure were part of the same issue as those with the star to the right, and not a later issue as proposed by Carson and Kent in 1 956 and Sutherland in RIC VI.
Imitations de la monnaie byzantine en Finlande
Authors: Talvio Tuukka
Published: October 2008

Summary. — The article presents 25 imitations of Byzantine miliarèsia. Seventeen of them imitate the coins of Basil П, while the rest are based on the coins of Roman Ш and Constantine IX. Most of the imitations of the first group have been found in Finland, and the second group is only known from Finland. The Finnish origin of the imitations was suggested by P. Sarvas in 1973.
Tremissis mérovingien inédit émis à Bâle (Un monnayage de Gontran en Burgondie)
Authors: Lafaurie Jean
Published: October 2008

Abstract — The discovery in the Hunterian Collection of Glasgow University of an unpublished Merovingian tremissis struck at Bale at the end of the 6th or early in the 7th century provides a new name, Silva, to be added to the list of Merovingian moneyers. The coin also invites a fresh look at the organisation of production in the kingdom of Burgundia at the end of the 6th century. The workshop is described as an officina under the oversight of two moneyers whose role seems to have been mainly administrative.
Les drachmes rhodiennes et pseudo-rhodiennes de la fin du IIIe siècle et du IIe siècle av. J.-C
Authors: Apostólou Éva
Published: October 2008

Résumé. - Les drachmes légères rhodiennes, émises vers la fin du IIIe et le début du IIe siècle av. J.-C, avaient le même poids que les petites dénominations courantes de l'époque (le tétrobole attique et le triobole éginétique). Malgré le caractère fermé du système monétaire rhodien, elles circulaient largement, surtout en Grèce continentale et en Crète, mêlées aux pièces d'imitation, les drachmes appelées pseudo-rhodiennes, qui furent frappées souvent en grand nombre par plusieurs ateliers monétaires de ces régions ainsi qu'en Asie Mineure. Imitations et drachmes légères rhodiennes étaient d'ordinaire contemporaines des tétradrachmes de ces ateliers aux types d'Alexandre. Dans cet article, ces phénomènes monétaires sont expliqués par le « vide » créé par le retrait progressif des grands royaumes hellénistiques de leurs possessions égéennes, dans la période troublée du début du IIe siècle av. J.-C. Enfin, ils marquent la confiance qu'avaient les Grecs dans les types de la monnaie rhodienne.
Aureliana
Authors: Estiot Sylviane
Published: October 2008

Abstract. - Two recent studies deal with the monetary policy of the emperor Aurelian (270-275 A.D.). V. Cubelli's works focuses on the bellům monetariorum in Rome and on the monetary reform ; R. Gobi's consists of a corpus of the coinage. Reviewing these books offers the opportunity of rectifying the chronology of the reign in the light of the numismatic, papyrological, and epigraphical evidence. The strict parallelism of the political events in Syria and Egypt, as it appears from coinage and papyri, makes possible a precise dating for the advancing Palmyrenian imperialism and subsequent Roman reconquest. Renewed attention paid to the aurei bearing the « impossible » legend ТВ Р VII COS II gives support to the theory of double imperial reckoning, with a supplementary TR P related to the triumph of 274. The numismatic documentation collected in Gobi's corpus, his dating, attributions to mints, sequences of issues are discussed in full detail and corrected when necessary with the help of the quantitative data gathered from hoards, especially the recently published Hoard of La Venèra.
Roman history in the age of Enligthtenment : the Dassier Medals
Authors: Weigel Richard D.
Published: October 2008

Summary. — The Swiss medallists Jean Dassier, chief-engraver to the Republic of Geneva, and his son Jacques-Antoine Dassier, produced in 1743 a series of sixty medals commemorating the great events and personages of Roman history from the monarchy until the age of Augustus. This paper will assess the classical sources that the Dassiers likely used for each story or moral exemplum selected as well as the individual virtues and deeds that appealed to a select audience educated during the Enlightenment in Europe before the French Revolution.
La monnaie de Carausius à Rouen : une remise en question
Authors: Giard Jean-Baptiste
Published: October 2008

Summary. - The publication of a coin of Carausius found at Jublains (Mayenne) offers the opportunity to question whether the mint of Rouen was established by the usurper.
Les monnaies spécifiques de Strasbourg (1682-1690)
Authors: Greissler Paul
Published: October 2008

Abstract. - The studies on the money in Alsace are old and fragmentary. Their sources are very seldom quoted and are not devoid of errors. Willingly or unwillingly, generations of authors have not resorted to original documents ; they merely repeated what was written. As most of the archives concerning the Mint of Strasbourg have been lost, numerous problems could be solved and inaccuracies could be rectified due to the other stocks throughout the town. Therefore it is possible to imagine the conditions under which were created in 1 682 the « XXX Sols de Strabourg » and its subsidiary coins, which were minted not only for a local circulation, but also for the whole Province of Alsace recently subject to the authority of the King of France. Enclosure : An unpublished document dealing with the first contract about the lease of the Mint of Strasbourg given in original German language and translated into French.
Réflexions sur la valeur des bronzes des premiers Ptolémées
Authors: Davesne Alain
Published: October 2008

Résumé. — La question des monnaies de bronze des premiers Ptolémées est difficile. L'étude qui suit consiste à proposer quelques hypothèses. Ptolémée I a vraisemblablement repris le système des bronzes adopté par Alexandre le Grand, avec une unité, le chalque, située entre 1 et 2 g. Ptolémée II a d'abord suivi la politique monétaire de son père ; vers 265, il réforma les monnayages et le chalque a pu peser autour de 3 g. Cet alourdissement de l'unité de bronze peut s'expliquer par une politique de prestige et une valorisation de ces pièces qui seront appelées à se substituer partiellement et peu à peu aux monnaies d'argent.
Mines anatoliennes exploitées par les Byzantins : recherches récentes
Authors: Pitarakis Brigitte
Published: October 2008

Ôzet. - Bizans Devri Anadolu maden isletmeleri uzerine olan bilgilerimizi bazen yazih kaynaklara, bazen yer adlanna, ôzellikle de yakin zamanlarda yapilan arkeometalurjik arastirmalara gôre yorumlayabiliriz. Sonuçlar her sit alam kapsamh bir sekilde ele alma- raktan derlenip degerlendirilmistir.
Arados et la guerre de 333 à 37 avant notre ère.
Authors: Duyrat Frédérique
Published: October 2008

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Le contre-exemple du monnayage stéphanéphore d'Athènes
Authors: Picard Olivier
Published: October 2008

Summary. — The minting of coins by Greek cities is usually explained in connexion with military expenses. But at the time when Athens issued its stephanophoric coinage, the city had very few military needs. The amount of coins issued increased with the expansion of commercial activity in Delos, especially after the sack of Corinth. The reasons for this coinage are thus economic.
Le trésor d'hyperpères des Paléologues d'Istanbul-Cerrahpaşa (1953) : les sigles et leur interprétation
Authors: Gökyilidirim Turan
Published: October 2008

Ôzet. - 1953 yihnda, Istanbul Cerrahpa§a Hastanesi insaatimn temel hafriyatinda, Paleologlar Deyrine ait, bugtine kadar bilinen en buyuk altm-hyperperon sikke definesi bulunmustur. Bir amphora içinde bulunan definenin buytik bir bôlum maalesef isciler ta- rafinadan kaçirilmis, ancak 2573 adedi Istanbul Arkeoloji Muzeleri'ne getirilmistir. 6 adedi II. Andronikos'a, 2567 adedi IL Andronikos ile IX Mikhael'in muçterek saltanati dônemine ait olan sikkelerden olusan define bu makale ile tamtihrken, sikkeler iizerinde yer alan ve bugune dek anlamlan рек anla^ilamayan harf ve sembollerden olusan sigla- lann istatistiksel listeleri çikartilmis ve bunlann dinsel anlamlar içerdigi one siirulmustur.
Les monnayages d'or d'Aquitaine anglo-gasconne, le témoignage des livres de changeur
Authors: Bompaire Marc
Published: October 2008

Summary. - Descriptions in money-changers' books, in addition to the relative value given to coins in various account books and the weight and fineness of preserved examples, dictate the avoidance of improper terms ('pavilion' or 'chaise d'or') in favour of those attested in documents ('noble de Guyenne' or 'fort'). These coins can thus be dated more accurately and Anglo-Gascon monetary policy better explained. An account of minting in La Rochelle for 1360-1361 is also presented.
Le troc primitif, un mythe fondateur d'une approche économiste de la monnaie
Authors: Servet Jean-Michel
Published: October 2008

Summary. - In the 18th century, the image of two savages exchanging goods in order to satisfy their respective needs marks the emergence of economics as an independent discipline and is at the root of a market theory of money. This article provides an analysis of the evolution and consolidation of this myth which ignores the social and political dimensions of money.
Commentaire numismatique du registre de ventes des terrains sacrés de la cité de Philippes
Authors: Psōmá Selī́nī
Published: October 2008

Summary. — The coins mentioned in an act of sale of consecrated land of the city of Philippoi dating from the second half of the 4th century ВС could be silver « Thraco-Mace- donian » weight drachms. The sums calculated in obols and tetartémoria could be small silver (obols) as well as bronze coins of Philip II, Alexander III and the city of Philippoi. It should be noted that the tetartémoria could only have been bronze coins struck by one of these latter. Long after the introduction of bronze coinage in Northern Greece the term designating the quarter-obol was still in use.
Le double mouton du siège vacant de Cambrai (13 septembre-21 novembre 1368)
Authors: Elsen Jean
Published: October 2008

Résumé. — Les chanoines du chapitre de Cambrai firent frapper des doubles moutons d'or pendant un siège vacant au cours de la seconde moitié du XIVe siècle. L'analyse métro- logique des émissions de moutons d'or en France et des moutons et doubles moutons dans les Pays-Bas, basée sur les textes monétaires, permet de situer cette émission entre le 13 septembre 1368 et le 21 novembre 1368 et de proposer ime chronologie des différentes émissions.
Un nouvel atelier monétaire centre-asiatique à Amu (XIVe siècle)
Authors: Kochnev B.
Published: October 2008

Résumé. — Une vingtaine de monnaies de cuivre dans un trésor récemment découvert permettent d'attribuer la frappe de dinars de bas argent à l'atelier d'Amul de l'Amu-Darya en 756H avec le tamga des Chaghatayides. Cela témoigne de la renaissance de la ville au XIVe s. et d'une extension de l'autorité des Chaghatayides.
Monnaies de la fin de l'empire byzantin à Dumbarton Oaks : un catalogue de référence
Authors: Morrisson Cécile , Bendall Simon
Published: October 2008

Summary. — This review article first summarizes the history of the collection of Byzantine coins in Dumbarton Oaks (Washington) and the decisive role P. Grierson has played for more than 40 years in its development and the publication, now completed, of its catalogue (DOC), a recognized reference in the field. It focusses on volume 5 and Palaeo- logan numismatics and ends with a few pages of supplements following the page numbering of the book.
Un trésor de monnaies séleucides de la région de Hama
Authors: Elayi Josette , G A.
Published: October 2008

24 29
New gold hoards from Bornholm with rare types of Valentinian III solidi
Authors: Horsnaes Helle W.
Published: October 2008

Summary. — The article provides a preliminary publication of the important finds of two hoards of combined Late Roman solidi and bracteates in the central place settlement at Sorte Muld, Bornholm. One of the hoards contained one coin and five bracteates, while the other one contained five bracteates, eight gold foil beads and six solidi, among which four are die linked examples of the rare type RIC 2036.
Documents sur la monnaie de Clermont et la circulation monétaire en Auvergne (XIe-XIVe siècles)
Authors: Grélois Emmanuel
Published: October 2008

Summary. — Publication of monetary documents preserved in Clermont concerning the monetary rights of the bishop, the chapter and the abbey of St André (e.g. the coin-minters of St Pourçain who lived there from the end of the thirteenth century), as well as concerning the localisation and organisation of the mint. - Publication of several charters concerning payment. - Complete publication with commentary of an account book from 1316-19 with much information concerning coins, in particular an issue (the last?) at Clermont in 1316.
Rémanences hellénistiques dans les monnayages provinciaux de Syrie et d'Arabie
Authors: Augé Christian
Published: October 2008

Summary. — The Roman conquest had very few immediate consequences for the coinages in this region: few were interrupted and most retained their earlier forms. Minting was still organised around the regional mint of Antioch for silver as well as for bronze coins, which show Roman influence (bronze SC) well before the issues of antoniniani. Inscriptions in Greek go back to a rich Hellenistic tradition before the development of Latin usage, especially in the case of the coins of colonies, in accordance with the types used. One also still finds traces and sometimes resurgences of even earlier traditions (Phoenician, Aramean). Various types on the obverse such as portraits, as well as those on the reverse, where in the second century extravagant architectural or cult representations were developped, reveal Roman influences as well as local traditions.
Aspects normatifs de la politique monétaire du Bas Empire : une nouvelle lecture de CTh IX, 23, 1
Authors: Delmaire Roland
Published: October 2008

Summary. — Historians who have studied the law IX, 23, 1 of the Theodosian Code, dated 356, have proposed dates from 346 (Seeck) to 352 (Mommsen) or 354 {PLRE, Callu, Bastien), and they have seen here a measure to withdraw earlier coins in order to impose a monopoly of Aes 4s of the type of the falling horseman. In fact, careful examination of the registers of the pre- torian prefect show that there is no reason to change the date: the law is not concerned with the introduction of the Aes 4 but the scarcity of bronze coinage in Gaul, connected with the closure of the mint of Trier, which led certain persons to speculate in bronze; whence the forbiddance here of the transport of large quantities of bronze coins from one province to another.
A coin hoard from the time of the first Crusade, found in the Near East (With remarks by Marc Bompaire and with contributions by Peter Northover and D. Michael Metcalf)
Authors: Schulze Ingrid , Schulze Wolfgang
Published: October 2008

Summary. — The authors will describe 624 coins - with one exception all of them French feudal deniers - that were found in 2000 in the Middle-East. They will examine their meaning for the numismatics of the Crusades. Assuming that the hoard dates from the First Crusade, the authors will, amongst other things, investigate the question whether and to what extent the account of the contemporary chronicler Raymond ď Aguilers about the « official » Crusader's money can be confirmed.
Anonymous western half-siliquae of the late fourth century
Authors: Bendall Simon
Published: October 2008

Summary. — Following a suggestion of the late Dr Kent, it is proposed here that the three types of anonymous half-siliquae with X or XV struck at Trier or Aquileia allude to imperial vota dating to 381.
The second-known specimen of a coin of Domitian II recorded in a hoard from Oxfordshire
Authors: Abdy Richard A.
Published: October 2008

Summary. — The second known coin of the Gallic usurper Domitianus (i.e. Domitian II) has come to light in a recent UK treasure case examined at the British Museum. A superb example, it is die-identical to the Cléons (Loire- Atlantique) find of 1900. An extremely rare numismatic discovery, the Oxfordshire Domitianus is moreover of great historical importance, as it corroborates the evidence of the previously unique coin. Its hoard (Chalgrove II) is summarised
Naxos (Cyclades) : les émissions de monnaies de bronze du IVe au Ier siècle av. J.-C
Authors: Nicolet-Pierre Hélène
Published: October 2008

Summary. — Bronze coinage of Cycladic Naxos from the 4th to the 1st century B.C. is studied with corpus and commentary: 6 series of coins with a cantharus, 1 series with a crown, 4 series with grapes, 7 series with a kylix-crater and 3 series with a volute-crater are described. Some coins with very similar types belong certainly to other mints.
Les assignats de soie de Jolivet
Authors: Weil Alain
Published: October 2008

Summary. — Considering the huge amount of so-called "assignats" issued during the first french Revolution (from 1789 up to 1793), it appeared of the utmost importance to fight against counterfeits. Hence was organised a national contest with the specific purpose of finding and promoting improvements in paper money making. One of the most amazing project to enter this competition was the silk assignat by Jolivet. This assignat, of outstanding rarity, was merely known until 1981 in two specimens. In 2004, the discovery of a new and unpublished variant type incited to reconsider the past studies and has led to the precise historical and technical description of the six remaining « assignats de soie de Jolivet ».
Après deux chocs pétroliers : diagnostics et perspectives
Authors: Sigogne Philippe , Fouet Monique
Published: October 2008

Western economies have been undergoing a recession over the past two years. Though in a more favourable cyclical phase when hit by a second oil shock, less severe than the first, they had been structurally weakened. Moreover, international competition was more fierce while there was less scope for adaptation in policy. The recession now seems to be bottoming out. A fall in interest rates will allow activity to pick up slowly in the United States, though it might rekindle inflation. The depreciation of the Dollar against the Deutschmark which will probably ensue, would loosen restrictions on European economic policies. Any resulting upturn in activity will however be moderate, strong growth in world imports being unlikely since demand from non-industrialised countries will fall off. French performance in reaction to the external shocks of the seventies compares poorly with that of partner countries. The squeeze on profits which had followed the first oil crisis was reinforced by the second. Up to spring 1981, tight fiscal policy accentuated the sluggishness of activity. Compared with other countries, a less restrictive monetary stance enabled firms to use a greater degree of external funding. The new policy, implemented from mid-1981 onwards, has slightly increased personal incomes and thereby consumer spending. However, despite improvements in activity and profitability, firms have reduced their investment levels. In the absence of better growth prospects, these are unlikely to rise in the coming months, particularly if external circumstances necessitate continued high interest rates while inflation remains higher than in other industrialised countries.
Relancer sans déraper
Authors: Jeanneney Jean-Marcel
Published: October 2008

Les politiques actuellement menées pour lutter contre le chômage et l'inflation s'inspirent de deux conceptions opposées: l'une ne fait confiance qu'aux mécanismes de la concurrence libérée de la plupart de ses entraves, l'autre affirme la nécessité d'en corriger les effets par de constantes interventions de l'État. La politique française actuelle, inspirée de cette seconde thèse, entend relancer l'investissement. Elle implique qu'on réduise des incertitudes paralysantes. Elle peut aussi utilement accroître le pouvoir d'achat des consommateurs et des entreprises dans la mesure où des capacités de production importantes sont inutilisées. Mais si les créations monétaires ne sont pas prudemment dosées, elles risquent d'accélérer la hausse des prix et de creuser le déficit de la balance des comptes. On ne peut desserrer cette contrainte extérieure qu'en accroissant, par une action de longue haleine, l'autonomie économique de la France et en persuadant les autres membres de la CEE de promouvoir des reprises simultanées de leur croissance économique. Quoique l'on fasse, la rapidité des progrès techniques imposera des mutations rapides. Il importe d'obtenir l'adhésion des Français aux changements inéluctables.
Les Français redécouvrent les vertus du micro-social
Authors: Forsé Michel
Published: October 2008

Plusieurs signes permettent de penser qu'aujourd'hui les Français valorisent les univers sociaux de petite dimension. La dé-syndicalisation, une certaine dépolitisation à l'école et, en sens inverse, une croissance sans précédent de la création d'associations destinées à gérer des pans entiers de la vie sociale, participent certainement à ce mouvement. De même on observe que la famille fait preuve d'une extraordinaire vitalité ; non seulement les individus (jeunes ou vieux) continuent de valoriser l'univers familial, mais ils semblent s'y réfugier de plus en plus. La croyance en un progrès technologique toujours plus intense soutenant une économie de croissance a fait long feu. Aujourd'hui, les individus se replient davantage sur des groupes, des lieux, des organisations qu'ils peuvent mieux maîtriser parce que moins énormes. La société devient plus diverse à mesure que les besoins d'autonomie, d'expression de soi et de sa différence croissent mais aussi plus complexe puisqu'il n'est plus possible d'identifier un individu par son appartenance à un macro-groupe. Les conséquences de ce phénomène sont multiples. Par exemple, le développement des associations a permis dans les villes de tisser de nouveaux réseaux notabiliaires d'où sont issus et sur lesquels s'appuient beaucoup des nouveaux députés élus en juin 1981. Sur le plan économique, on assiste à l'émergence de nouvelles consommations, plus «personnalisées» que les précédentes ou devant évoquer une certaine idée de la convivialité ou de la rusticité. On peut aussi remarquer que le développement de l'économie informelle est tout à fait lié à ce mouvement de repli sur le micro-social qui implique un développement des réseaux de relations indispensables à sa mise en œuvre et mieux adaptés aux nouveaux besoins d'autonomie, de différence ou de sociabilité immédiate.
Ce qu'il en coûte de réduire les déséquilibres
Authors: Fouet Monique , Sigogne Philippe
Published: October 2008

Structural problems, worsened by the oil shocks, called during the 70's for adjustments that made some degree of recession necessary. But all through the decade, economic policies followed in industrialised countries enabled economic agents to avoid these necessities by increasingly resorting to debt. These policies have gradually become restrictive during the recent years, enabling postponed adjustments to take place. This process is well under way, so that the factors of recession will probably fade away in the coming months ; but there is no reason why they should turn into stimulus for growth. Unless new, dynamic factors suddenly appear, no recovery can be expected in France's foreign environment in 1983. The results of France's expansionary policies in 1981 and of the shift of june 1982 can now be assessed. Household income increased noticeably and then faltered for a while. Employment suffered no important decline as industrial production remained flat and productivity slowly increased. But the trade gap widened, and presently reaches an annual rate of 80 billion francs. As long as a worldwide recovery was expected in the near future, the resulting indebtedness appeared as a temporary nuisance. But it can no longer be considered as such when in most foreign countries economic policies still focus on structural adjustment, nor be acceptable as the price for lonely growth. Should restrictive demand management be used as the only way to curb the trade gap, then industrial production would register a 5 to 10% decline.
Les innovations financières aux États-Unis
Authors: de Boissieu Christian
Published: October 2008

Le système financier américain connaît, depuis le début des années 1970, de profondes mutations. L'introduction de nouvelles technologies financières se conjugue à une floraison de nouveaux produits financiers offerts aux épargnants, tant par les intermédiaires financiers que sur les marchés de capitaux. L'objet de cet article est de présenter les plus importants de ces nouveaux produits financiers, puis d'étudier les relations, dans les deux sens de la causalité, entre la conjoncture et les innovations financières. La conjoncture économique, essentiellement à travers l'accélération de l'inflation, la hausse et l'augmentation de la variabilité des taux d'intérêt nominaux, a joué un rôle significatif dans l'introduction des nouveaux produits financiers aux Etats-Unis. D'autres facteurs sont également intervenus, qui permettent d'esquisser une analyse plus globale du phénomène d'innovations financières. D'autre part, les innovations financières compliquent sérieusement la régulation conjoncturelle, puisqu'elles amènent à mettre en cause la délimitation des agrégats monétaires et les indicateurs surveillés par les autorités monétaires.
Appréciation des stocks, profit, autofinancement et comptabilité nationale
Authors: Anyadike-Danes Michael Keith
Published: October 2008

The measurement of corporate profits has been a controversial subject almost since the emergence of national accounting in it's modern form in the mid-1930's. A particular difficulty has always surrounded the treatment of changes in the value of the stocks of goods held by enterprises since these are generally measured by national accountants in a way which differs from their treatment by private accountants. The difference derives from the practice adopted in the national accounts of deducting « stock appreciation » (the change in the cost of replacing those stocks used up during an accounting period) from business profits and the value of stockbuilding. Although this deduction has little effect when the rate of inflation is low and relatively stable it becomes larger, and more important, when making comparisons across years when inflation has been relatively high and variable. Among the effects of such a deduction is to reduce both the ratio of profits to sales and the self-financing ratio in periods of relatively rapid inflation and increase them both when inflation slows down ; moreover such a practice can affect quite significantly the inferences made about the factors which determine the bahaviour of these two ratios. An alternative approach to measurement, which follows private accounting practice by including stock appreciation, leads to the conclusion that the profit share in France has been at much the same level since the mid-1 970's as it was during most of the 1960's and that there has been little evidence of a strong trend in the self-financing ratio over the last two decades.
Le modèle trimestriel de l'OFCE
Authors: Sterdyniak Henri , Boudier Marie-Annick , Boutillier Michel , Charpin Françoise , Durand Bruno
Published: October 2008

This article presents the general conception of the OFCE's quarterly model. It describes the model's main equations. It shows the results of the stimulations on the past and studies various economic policies.
Royaume-Uni : croissance lente et poursuite de l'assainissement
Authors: Radisson Vincent
Published: October 2008

A l'arrivée de Mme Thatcher aux affaires en mars 1979, le Royaume-Uni, sous la pression de politiques monétaires et budgétaires restrictives entre en récession avant les autres pays et malgré le bénéfice essentiel de l'exploitation pétrolière. Au printemps 1981, le relâchement de la contraction monétaire permet à l'économie de récupérer une partie du terrain perdu ; depuis ce moment l'activité progresse de 2 % par an mais n'a pas rejoint le niveau de production de ses partenaires européens. Cette croissance a été due principalement à la hausse de la consommation des ménages, elle-même rendue possible par la réduction du taux d'épargne. La modération des salaires et de forts gains de productivité, acquis au détriment de l'emploi ont ralenti la hausse des prix. Les profits réalisés par les entreprises au premier semestre 1983, ont récemment permis une reprise de l'investissement productif. En 1984 la croissance du PIB sera vraisemblablement de 2 % en moyenne sur l'année, l'essentiel étant acquis au premier semestre. La consommation des ménages progressera plus modestement qu'en 1983, tandis que le taux de croissance des importations restera élevé et que le restockage sera modéré. Les industries exportatrices profiteront de la reprise de la demande mondiale, mais ne regagneront pas les parts de marché perdues. L'investissement dans le secteur des services sera encore soutenu. La politique budgétaire restrictive devrait permettre une légère baisse des taux d'intérêt ce qui inciterait l'industrie manufacturière à investir, condition pour que la reprise se prolonge. En annexes : prévisions quantitatives et diagrammes de base.
Qui y gagnerait ? Qui y perdrait ? Ou quoi faire d'autre ? [Post-face à l'article précédent «Faut-il subsituer de la TVA aux cotisations sociales des employeurs?»]
Authors: Jeanneney Jean-Marcel
Published: October 2008

The contemplated reform, substituting VAT points for social contribution points would not really encourage employment of workers in preference to recourse to machines, but would be unfair to certain categories of businesses and offer advantages to others. Structural transformations, in this way, would be accelerated. In order to increase employment, another conceivable reform would consist in extending the basis of assessment for social contributions to a firm's capital depreciation and profits. But this would be acceptable only if it could be demonstrated that the mesure would not run counter to the necessary renewal of investment. This is very likely, but no judgment should be made without thorough studies of the subject.
Finances publiques décentralisées en temps d'austérité : l'exemple des États- Unis
Authors: Le Cacheux Jacques
Published: October 2008

Some important aspects of the current French decentralization are enlightened by the recent changes in US public finance. Proceeding from very different premises, the « New Federalism » and the French decentralization share in common a context of general economic slowdown and fiscal tightness. The problems that arise and their solutions are therefore often similar, in spite of conspicuous differences in the institutional frameworks. Such similarities are in broad agreement with the economic theory of decentralized governments. The case-study of the US local public finance clearly reveals the effects of the recession. After several decades of continuing growth in local budgets, the 1981-1982 recession, closely following the « Tax Revolt » movement, caused a reversal in these trends. Both the increase in needs and the decline in revenues have been aggravated by the transfer of competences and finan- cial responsabilities from the federal government to the states. An increase in state and local taxes could not be avoided. And, in so far as some existing public services are given a high priority, other outlays had to be reduced : thus public employment shrank and public investment sharply declined.
Les avenirs inégalement sombres des pays en voie de développement
Authors: Fouet Monique
Published: October 2008

L'ampleur des contraintes extérieures pesant sur les zones dites « en voie de développement » fait de leur desserrement une condition nécessaire, mais non suffisante, à toute croissance économique d'ici la fin de la décennie dans des pays qui, par choix ou par nécessité, se sont insérés dans les marchés mondiaux. Au Moyen-Orient la stagnation du pouvoir d'achat du pétrole, en Afrique la régression du pouvoir d'achat des matières premières, en Amérique latine la charge de la dette, en Asie le protectionnisme des pays industrialisés sont autant de risques qui laissent attendre une régression des niveaux de vie durant les années à venir. Pour qu'ils ne se matérialisent pas, il faudrait soit la conjonction — peu vraisemblable — d'hypothèses extrêmement favorables dans le cheminement de la croissance en OCDE, soit une modification de l'attitude du « Nord » face au « Sud ».
Degré de validité des opinions des chefs d'entreprise pour les prévisions de production
Authors: Abou Alain , Szpiro Daniel
Published: October 2008

The monthly Industrial Trend Survey provides, with a very short lag, information on past and future industrial production and when used with the official index of industrial production, it can be an important tool for the analysis of short-term economic prospects. These two sources of information are complementary, but they must be put together with care : business people are not asked in this Survey to give a precise figure ; but rather « whether the trend will be " up ", " down ", or " the same " ». Replies from the respondent are usually summarized by the « balance » statistic — a weight average of the percentage replying « up » minus a weighted average of the percentage replying « down ». A weakness of this statistic is that it takes no account of those answering « the same », a response which can reveal a degree of uncertainty on the part of the respondents. An alternative method is to quantify the replies, thereby obtaining an indicator which uses all the Survey information and makes possible a direct comparison between the Survey and the index of industrial production. In this paper we present a model of the second kind using monthly data on French industrial production for the period November 1969 - May 1983. Our analysis reveals that answering practices, in respect of current production, give a good guide to growth of the industrial production index which is only published later. We also consider an assessment of various characteristics of the series measuring expectations about the future.
États-Unis : une croissance hypothéquée
Authors: Mathieu Sabine
Published: October 2008

With the easing of monetary policy from summer 1982 onwards, the American economy bounced back to its pre-recession level and has been growing vigorously for the past year. Investment, largely self-financed owing to tax deductions, has reached a higher level than during the cyclical recoveries which started in 1961 and 1975. After the rationalization of existing structures, it can now be turned towards increasing capacity in dynamic sectors. Employment has reached and now overtaken its previous peak. However, compared with the same two cycles, the relative increase in the services sector, which has tended to grow in importance, is lower and the rise in productivity is more marked in manufacturing industry where the return to previous employment levels has been put back. Inflationary pressures have been slight during the recovery phase thanks to moderate wage increases, cheap imports and lower taxes. These effects are falling off and would be reversed if slacker monetary policy were to prolong a strong expansion. The cyclical lead over countries, the structural difficulties of Latin America and an over valued dollar have weighed on the foreign deficit. The surplus in services remains high but that of investment goods has fallen considerably. The budget deficit, a veritable mortgage on future growth, is far from being resolved. Receipts are only marginally increasing as business conditions improve and decision making is delayed by the forth-coming elections. Under these conditions and with targets for the money supply which seem hardly attainable, the response of the monetary authorities to fluctuations of the dollar, to the private sector demand for credit and to the public sector borrowing requirement will be crucial. Leaving aside extreme solutions, the slowdown in activity could well be jolted by fragmented policy making. Appendices : forecast results and basic charts.
Le banquier et le nouveau régime de contrôle du crédit institué en décembre 1984
Authors: Rist Marcel
Published: October 2008

By 1984, it was becoming increasingly clear that the system of credit control had lost its efficiency, while remaining as complex as ever. The new and simpler system introduced in December 1984 has on the contrary been so designed as to give the authorities effective powers for restricting credit. But in many respects it certainly takes after the former system, especially with regard to the costs it imposes on banks that « excessively » expand their loans. Repealing the previous « standards » is an important administrative simplification, but it does not substantially alter the system's economy. One may indeed praise the new system for the possibilities it gives the authorities to simultaneously hit targets that are considered contradictory under the Anglo-Saxon or the German systems. But the price to be paid for this is a strict rationning of credit that is so far from the rules governing the market economy that the rational allocation of financial ressources may be seriously affected, even though the system is administered by the thanks themselves. Furthermore in spite of superficial evidence, the system is conducive neither to a true improvement of bank's balance-sheets nor to the badly needed recovery in their operating accounts.
Transferts de patrimoine dus à l'inflation : 1971-1979
Authors: Capul Jean-Yves
Published: October 2008

Inflation is a poweful engine of wealth redistribution. Financial portfolios are particularly affected because of inflation-induced, real transfers from creditors to debtors. In spite of certain data deficiencies, it is possible to evaluate the order of magnitude of wealth transfers on the major elements in the financial portfolios of the various sectors. For the decade 1971-1979, during which inflation has been highly variable and quite strong on average, the resulting estimates, though probably understating the actual amounts, are far from negligible by comparison with the major aggregates traditionnally used in the analysis of economic behavior. Taking such transfers into account implies substantial revisions in these variables as measured in national accounts. With regard to money holdings and bank deposits and credits, the household sector is the major loser at the inflation game, while the net debtor sectors — i.e. enterprises and, to a lesser extent, the public sector — enjoyed real gains all over the period. Similar conclusions apply for obligations, although the corresponding estimates are less precise and reliable.
Crise ou renforcement du syndicalisme ?
Authors: Dirn Louis , Jaslin Jean-Pierre
Published: October 2008

Y a-t-il crise ou renforcement du syndicalisme ? D'un côté on observe une désaffection des adhérents et des militants, d'un autre la participation de plus en plus affirmée des syndicats à la gestion des diverses institutions économiques, sociales et culturelles et surtout une reconnaissance unanime de la légitimité des syndicats. Les causes de la désaffection tiennent autant à la transformation du système productif qu'aux évolutions sociétales : structures sociales, modes de vie, idéologies, etc. La multiplication des élections « sociales » donne aux syndicats des fonctions nouvelles et confirme leur légitimité.
Considérations sur les méthodes de prévision illustrées par un retour sur 1984
Authors: Fonteneau Alain , Muet Pierre-Alain , Sterdyniak Henri
Published: October 2008

Forecasts made in 1984 by the econometrics department of the OFCE can now be compared with the description of the economy given by the national and quarterly accounts. It appears that we had correctly forecast moderate growth and the slowdown of inflation. However, the upturn of world demand and the dollar exchange rate were underestimated, as was, at first, the slowdown of wage rates. The present analysis describes the method employed. This combines the use of a structural macroeconomic model, to determine and explain the short/medium term tendancy, with a diagnosis of current conditions, i.e. a study of gaps between recent evolutions and average behaviour described by the relations of the model. Obstacles met are : the difficulty in forecasting exogenous variables (economic policy and especially international environment) ; imperfect knowledge of recent economic evolutions ; the presence of residues, i.e. gaps between real evolutions and those that the model simulates.
Endettement extérieur et politique économique
Authors: Le Cacheux Jacques , Vasseur Christian
Published: October 2008

The amount of external debt has become a central concern in French economic policy-making. Its rapid increase in 1982 and 1983 was a major factor in the decision to reverse the course of economic policy. Evaluating a country's external position is difficult due to the variety of the financial assets that might be taken into account and because no such thing as a satisfactory wealth accounting system is available. The first section of this paper is dedicated to a discussion of the various concepts of foreign debt and to a comparative presentation of French and US indebtedness. In the analyses outlined in the second section, external indebtedness is seen as the possible outcome of optimal saving and investment behaviors ; such a foreign debt is perpetual and efficient. The third section shows that external indebtedness may also arise from demand-management policies, be it in order to minimise the employment losses caused by a desinflationary policy, or to try to curb unemployment without accelerating inflation. Finally, when discussing the costs of external indebtedness, we are lead to draw a sharp distinction between the French and the US situations, essentially because only the US are in a position to go into debt denominated in their own currency.