bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Hedging Effectiveness Around U.S. Department of Agriculture Crop Reports
Authors: McKenzie Andrew , Singh Navinderpal
Published: July 2016

It is well documented that “unanticipated” information contained in United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop reports induces large price reactions in corn and soybean markets. Thus, a natural question that arises from this literature is: To what extent are futures hedges able to remove or reduce increased price risk around report release dates? This paper addresses this question by simulating daily futures returns, daily cash returns, and daily hedged returns around report release dates for two storable commodities (corn and soybeans) in two market settings (North Central Illinois and Memphis, Tennessee). Various risk measures, including “Value at Risk,” are used to determine hedging effectiveness, and “Analysis of Variance” is used to uncover the underlying factors that contribute to hedging effectiveness.
Food Price Volatility and Macroeconomic Factors: Evidence from GARCH and GARCH-X Estimates
Authors: Apergis Nicholas , Rezitis Anthony
Published: July 2016

This article examines food price volatility in Greece and how it is affected by short-run deviations between food prices and macroeconomic factors. The methodology follows the GARCH and GARCH-X models. The results show that there exists a positive effect between the deviations and food price volatility. The results are highly important for producers and consumers because higher volatility augments the uncertainty in the food markets. Once the participants receive a signal that the food market is volatile, this might lead them to ask for increased government intervention in the allocation of investment resources and this could reduce overall welfare.
An Evaluation of Factors Affecting the Choice of Coastal Recreational Activities
Authors: Paudel Krishna P. , Caffey Rex H. , Devkota Nirmala
Published: July 2016

A visitor's decision to use a particular recreational site is influenced by the individual's taste as well as the characteristics of the site. For this reason, improved knowledge of the visitors' interests and factors influencing their choices are vital for both planning and policy formulations in coastal development. This study examines visitor characteristics and desired site-specific characteristics in order to determine the factors affecting use of the Louisiana coast for specific recreational purposes. We use a multinomial logit model and internet survey data to evaluate the factors affecting individuals' decisions to visit coastal Louisiana for a specific use. Results suggest that the major variables affecting the choice of coastal recreational activities include environmental quality of the site, income, and travel time.
Assessing Consumer Willingness to Pay for Value-Added Blueberry Products Using a Payment Card Survey
Authors: Hu Wuyang , Woods Timothy , Bastin Sandra , Cox Linda , You Wen
Published: July 2016

This study offers insights on consumer acceptance and willingness to pay for three value-added blueberry products. A modified payment card approach was used. The analytical framework adopted allows the researcher to attach straightforward economic interpretation to the estimated impacts of willingness to pay factors. Results show consumer socio-economic characteristics are important determinants but play different roles depending on the products. Information on health benefits may also be important. However, it is found that outside information or consumer self-stated awareness of blueberries' health benefits have different impacts. These impacts may function as substitutes rather than complements to each other.
Will Changing Demographics Affect U.S. Cheese Demand?
Authors: Davis Christopher G. , Blayney Donald , Dong Diansheng , Yen Steven T. , Johnson Rachel J.
Published: July 2016

U.S. cheese consumption has grown considerably over the last three decades. Using a censored demand model and Nielsen Homescan retail data, this study identifies price and non-price factors affecting the demand for differentiated cheese products. Own-price and expenditure elasticities for all of the cheese products are statistically significant and elastic. Results also reveal that a strong substitution relationship exists among all cheese products. Although demographic influences are generally smaller than those related to prices and expenditures, empirical findings show that household size, college educated female heads of household who are age 40 and older, residing in the South, Central, and Western regions of the United States, as well as Black heads of household, have positive statistically significant effects on consumers' cheese purchases.
Determinants of Returns in Rural Tourism
Authors: Murova Olga , Hanagriff Roger
Published: July 2016

The goal of this study, based on data collected through community surveys and visitors' surveys, is to determine and analyze factors impacting returns from rural tourism. Our first model shows that age of event, median family income, and hired labor have a significant impact on the revenues collected from tourism events. Furthermore, it shows brochures and flyers to be the most effective form of advertisement. The second multivariate regression model proves that traveling greater distances, staying overnight at a hotel, and plans for visiting surrounding areas contribute positively and significantly to higher individual expenditures by tourists.
Viability of Organic Production in Rural Counties: County and State-Level Evidence from the United States
Authors: Kostandini Genti , Mykerezi Elton , Tanellari Eftila
Published: July 2016

We investigate the determinants of organic farming in the United States. State-level data show that the organic farming sector has grown over the last decade, but growth has been very heterogeneous with few states accounting for most of the growth. Further analyses of county data reveal that favorable natural amenities, water for irrigation, and government payments have a positive effect on most measures of organic farming used here. Results further point out that organic farming operations are more popular among young farmers. Adjacency to metro areas is also an important determinant for the number of organic operations. Organic farming is more important for the agricultural sector of the areas that are somewhat remote but that does not appear to be the case for very remote rural areas.
Discussion: Economic Sustainability of Rural Areas
Authors: Constance Douglas H.
Published: July 2016

The three articles in this invited paper session examine value-added strategies related to agriculture and food at the state and federal level designed to enhance rural development. Two of the papers dealt with the GO TEXAN program and the other with organic agriculture. All three papers were well written and interesting, but all three also shed light on the problem of using classical economic theory to interpret differentiated agriculture and food products as opposed to undifferentiated commodities.
Subsidy Incidence in Factor Markets: An Experimental Approach
Authors: Nagler Amy M. , Menkhaus Dale J. , Bastian Christopher T. , Ehmke Mariah D. , Coatney Kalyn T.
Published: July 2016

Laboratory market experiments are used to estimate the incidence of a stylized subsidy in factor market negotiations with university student and agricultural professional subjects. In separate sessions with both groups, prices converged approximately four and a half tokens higher when a 20-token per-unit subsidy was paid to buyers; this equates to 44% of the predicted 10-token split. A proportional market incentive treatment clarifies this subsidy effect. Discrepancies between predicted and observed incidence are similar to previous empirical estimates of subsidy incidence in agricultural land rental markets. A behavioral anomaly as well as buyer-buyer market competition may contribute to experimental results.
Economies of Capacity Use in Decontamination of Pig Carcasses
Authors: Jensen Jørgen Dejgård , Lawson Lartey Godwin , Lund Mogens
Published: July 2016

This article analyzes the economies of capacity use regarding hot water decontamination to reduce postslaughter risk of pathogens in meat, taking interfarm heterogeneities of Salmonella risk and costs of transportation into account, using Denmark as a case study. If risk reduction goals are stated at the processing plant level, then the exploitation of the favorable cost-effectiveness properties of hot water slaughtering requires fairly ambitious risk reduction goals and thus high use of decontamination capacity. If instead risk reduction goals are formulated for the sector as a whole, the cost-effectiveness properties can be exploited even for relatively low-risk reduction goals.
Incentivizing Net Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reductions in Rice Production: The Case of Arkansas Rice
Authors: Lyman Nate , Nalley L. Lanier
Published: July 2016

U.S. rice industry producers face pressure from consumers, suppliers, and the government to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with rice (Oryza sativa L.) production. Arkansas rice cultivar-specific net GHG emissions information allows models of paddy rice emissions. Baseline levels of profit, yield variance, and GHG emissions are established using extension data. Varietal selection is then optimized to maximize profits and minimize GHG emissions, both constrained and unconstrained by baseline yield variance. Carbon abatement functions are estimated to examine the effects of hypothetical carbon prices on varietal selection.
Consumer Response to Point of Purchase Advertising for Local Brands
Authors: Collart Alba J. , Palma Marco A. , Carpio Carlos E.
Published: July 2016

This study evaluates the effectiveness of a point of purchase advertising program conducted for two local horticultural brands in Texas. The results based on surveys gathered before and after the program was launched suggest that the campaign size was not sufficient to significantly increase brand awareness and overall demand, yet it increased willingness to pay by 5.5% for those consumers aware of one of the brands. A major factor found to increase willingness to pay and likelihood of brand awareness was purchase frequency measured in transactions per month, which suggests that other advertising methods aimed to increase buying frequency might affect demand more effectively.
Production Contracts and Farm Business Growth and Survival
Authors: Key Nigel
Published: July 2016

Using farm-level panel data from the U.S. Census of Agriculture, this research examines whether hog producers with production contracts increased output more, or were more likely to survive in business over 5 years, compared with independent producers. Additionally, this research examines whether independent producers who adopted a production contract grew more than similar independent operations who did not contract. The local availability of contracts serves as an instrumental variable to address the potential endogeneity of the contracting decision. Results indicate that the use and adoption of production contracts affect farm size growth and survival differently depending on the initial size of an operation.
Negative Externalities and Oil Spills: A Case for Reduced Brand Value to the State of Florida
Authors: Larkin Sherry L. , Huffaker Ray G. , Clouser Rodney L.
Published: July 2016

Despite recent advances in measuring and compensating for environmental damages, several challenges remain. States have a vested interest in claiming economic damages, especially those that reduce the value of investments. Because place-brand values are considered personal property, Florida may seek additional compensation from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.
Impacts of the 1996 Farm Bill Including Ad Hoc Additions
Authors: Ray Daryll E.
Published: July 2016

Whether the next farm bill is a slightly modified extension of the 1996 Farm Bill or is significantly different from the current bill will hinge on how the 1996 Farm Bill is perceived to have performed. With no supply management provisions in the 1996 Farm Bill, the crop markets have not shown a capacity to self-correct by reducing the quantity supplied and increasing the quantity demanded in response to relatively large declines in crop prices.
Land Use Change and Competition in the South
Authors: Reynolds John E.
Published: July 2016

The amount of land in urban and other special uses increased more than 50 percent since the 1960s in the South. Rural land converted to urban uses is directly related to increases in population in the South. Urban land-use coefficients were estimated to provide a measure of the amount of land converted to urban uses per person added to the population base. These coefficients indicate that from 1974 to 1987 two-thirds to three fourths of an acre of land was converted to urban uses for each person added to the population base. At this rate, about 12.6 million acres are expected to be converted to urban use in the South during the next two decades.
Land Use Change, Resource Competition and Conflict in the Southern United States: Discussion
Authors: Norris Patricia E.
Published: July 2016

These three papers together characterize trends in land use, resource issues, and research responses that are being observed in all regions of the country. However, southern states are the locus of the most recent and rapid changes in land use. The latest National Resources Inventory data shows that the increase in acreage of land in developed uses from 1992 through 1997 was most pronounced in the southern states. Figure 1 compares, for all states but Alaska, the average annual rate of land development (this is land moved into the urban and built-up category and the rural transportation land category) between 1992 and 1997. Eight of the top 13 states are in the southern region, and Louisiana, the southern state with the lowest rate of land development, is ranked at 29th out of 49.
Optimal Stocking Density for Dual-Purpose Winter Wheat Production
Authors: Kaitibie Simeon , Epplin Francis M. , Brorsen B. Wade , Horn Gerald W. , Krenzer Eugene G. , Paisley Steven I.
Published: July 2016

Dual-purpose winter wheat production is an important economic enterprise in the southern Great Plains of the United States. Because of the complex interactions involved in producing wheat grain and beef gain from a single crop, stocking density is an important decision. The objective of the research is to determine the stocking density that maximizes expected net returns from dual-purpose winter wheat production. Statistical tests rejected a conventional linear-response plateau function in favor of a linear-response stochastic plateau function. The optimal stocking density of 1.48 steers/ha (0.60 steers/acre) is 19% greater with a stochastic than with a nonstochastic plateau.
An Evaluation of Crop Forecast Accuracy for Corn and Soybeans: USDA and Private Information Agencies
Authors: Egelkraut Thorsten M. , Garcia Philip , Irwin Scott H. , Good Darrel L.
Published: July 2016

Using 1971-2000 data, we examine the accuracy of corn and soybean production forecasts provided by the USD A and two private agencies. All agencies improved their forecasts as the harvest progressed, and forecast errors were highly correlated and unbiased. The relative forecast accuracy of the agencies varied by crop and month. For corn, USDA's forecasts ranked as most accurate of the three agencies in all periods except for August during the recent period and improved most markedly as harvest progressed. For soybeans, forecast errors were very similar, with the private agencies ranking as most accurate for August and September and making largest relative improvements for August during the recent period. The USDA forecasts were dominant for October and November. Our findings identify several patterns of relative forecast accuracy that have implications for private and public decision makers.
The Free Trade Area of the Americas and the Market for Processed Orange Products
Authors: Spreen Thomas H. , Brewster Charlene , Brown Mark G.
Published: July 2016

The proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas would join the world's two largest processed orange producing regions: Brazil and the United States. Because the United States currently imposes a sizeable tariff on imported processed orange products, there is concern by U.S. orange growers over possible adverse effects resulting from tariff elimination. A model of the world processed orange market is developed as a spatial equilibrium model with implicit supply functions based on the dynamic behavior of orange production. The model is used to estimate the impact of U.S. tariff elimination on U.S. production, grower and processor prices, and imports. The results suggest a sizeable price impact on U.S. producers if the tariff is eliminated.
Short-Run Demand Relationships in the U.S. Fats and Oils Complex
Authors: Goodwin Barry K. , Harper Daniel , Schnepf Randy
Published: July 2016

Fats and oils play a prominent role in U.S. dietary patterns. Recent concerns over the negative health consequences associated with fats and oils have led many to suspect structural change in demand conditions. Our analysis considers short run (monthly) demand relationships for edible fats and oils. In that monthly quantities of fats and oils are likely to be relatively fixed, an inverse almost ideal demand system specification is used. A smooth transition function is used to model a switching inverse almost ideal demand system that assesses short-run demand conditions for edible fats and oils in the United States. The results suggest that short-run demand conditions for fats and oils experienced a gradual structural shift that began in the late 1980s or early 1990s and persisted into the mid-1990s. Although this shift generally made price flexibilities more elastic, differences in scale flexibilities across regimes were modest in most cases. The results suggest that decreases in marginal valuations for most fats and oils in response to consumption increases are rather small. Scale flexibilities are relatively close to –1, suggesting near homothetic preferences for fats and oils.
Consequences of Biotechnology Policy for Competitiveness and Trade of Southern U.S. Agriculture
Authors: Jolly Curtis , Jefferson-Moore Kenrett Y. , Traxler Greg
Published: July 2016

The effect of policy decisions on the competitiveness of genetically modified (GM) crops was examined. The United States has been an early innovator in the development and use of biotechnology crops and has expanded its export market share of the three major GM crops: soybeans, cotton, and corn. Cotton, soybeans, and corn are all grown in the southern states, but these states have an apparent comparative advantage only in the production of cotton, which may be strengthened with the adoption of genetically modified cotton. The influence of biotechnology on the competitiveness of soybeans and corn for the southern states through the introduction of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) is not clear but is probably negligible.
An Econometric Analysis of Price Dynamics in the Presence of a Price Floor: The Case of American Cheese
Authors: Chavas Jean-Paul , Kim Kwansoo
Published: July 2016

In this paper, we present an econometric analysis of the effects of a price floor on price dynamics and price volatility. A price floor (implemented as a part of government pricing policy) provides a censoring mechanism for price determination. We specify and estimate a dynamic Tobit model under time-varying volatility. The model is applied to analyze the effects of a price support program on price dynamics and price volatility in the U.S. American cheese market. The econometric analysis provides useful insights on price dynamics in the presence of a government-determined price floor.
Can Multiyear Rollover Hedging Increase Mean Returns?
Authors: Yoon Byung-Sam , Brorsen B. Wade
Published: July 2016

Both market advisors and researchers have often suggested multiyear rollover hedging as a way to increase producer returns. This study determines whether rollover hedging can increase expected returns for producers. For rollover hedging to increase expected returns, futures prices must follow a mean-reverting process. To test for the existence of mean reversion in agricultural commodity prices, this study uses a longer set of price data and a wider range of test procedures than past research. With the use of both the return predictability test from long-horizon regression and the variance ratio test, we find that mean reversion does not exist in futures prices for corn, wheat, soybean, soybean oil, and soybean meal. The findings are consistent with the weak form of market efficiency. Simulated trading results for 3-year rollover hedges provide additional evidence that the expected returns to the rollover hedging strategies are not statistically different from the expected returns to routine annual hedges and cash sale at harvest.
Portfolios of Agricultural Market Advisory Services: How Much Diversification Is Enough?
Authors: Cabrini Silvina M. , Stark Brian G. , Irwin Scott H. , Good Darrel L. , Martines-Filho Joao
Published: July 2016

This study analyzes the potential risk-reduction gains from naive diversification among market advisory services for corn and soybeans. The total possible decrease in risk through naive diversification is small, mainly because advisory prices are highly correlated on average. Moreover, because marginal risk-reduction benefits decrease rapidly with size and the cost of holding the portfolios increases linearly due to services' subscription fees, it is optimal to limit portfolio size to a few advisory programs. Based on certainty equivalent measures and two representative risk-aversion levels, preferred portfolio sizes are between one and three programs.
A Dynamic Decision Model of Technology Adoption under Uncertainty: Case of Herbicide-Resistant Rice
Authors: Annou Mamane M. , Wailes Eric J. , Thomsen Michael R.
Published: July 2016

Herbicide-resistant (HR) rice technology is a potential tool for control of red rice in commercial rice production. Using anex antemathematical programming framework, this research presents an empirical analysis of HR rice technology adoption under uncertainty. The analysis accounts for stochastic germination of red rice and sheath blight to model a profit maximization problem of crop rotation among HR rice, regular rice, and soybeans. The results demonstrate that risk attitudes and technology efficiency determine adoption rates and optimal rotation patterns.
Higher Education Costs and the Production of Extension
Authors: Laband David N. , Lentz Bernard F.
Published: July 2016

Do cost considerations justify the current structure of production of extension services in which one or more providers exists in virtually all of the contiguous U.S. states? Provision of extension services has sizable cost implications for the host institutions. Yet, to our knowledge, there has been virtually no analysis of the impact of extension on higher education costs. Using academic year 1995–1996 data, we estimate a multiproduct cost function for 1,445 public institutions of higher education in the United States, including 65 that provide extension services. We find evidence of significant economies of scale with respect to the provision of extension services but no evidence of significant economies of scope between the provision of extension and the production of research, undergraduate education, or graduate education.
Analysis of the Risk Management Properties of Grazing Contracts Versus Futures and Option Contracts
Authors: Wes Harrison R. , Bobst Barry W. , Benson Fred J. , Meyer Lee
Published: July 2016

A stochastic budget simulator and generalized stochastic dominance are used to compare the risk management properties of grazing contracts to futures and option contracts. The results show that the risks of backgrounding feeder cattle are reduced significantly for pasture owners in a grazing contract. However, the risks of the cattle owner in a grazing contract are not significantly reduced. The results also show that generally risk averse pasture owners prefer grazing contracts to integrated production when traditional hedging is used to manage price risks. In addition, grazing contracts compare favorably with put option contracts for some pasture owners.
Asymmetric Price Relationships in the U.S. Broiler Industry
Authors: Bernard John C. , Willett Lois Schertz
Published: July 2016

This study presents a testing methodology to analyze potential price asymmetries among the farm, wholesale, and retail levels of the U.S. broiler industry. Lag length, direction of causality, and asymmetric relationships are empirically determined. Results suggest that concentration and power of the integrators in the industry have allowed the wholesale price to become the center, causal price in the market. Asymmetric price transmissions, however, are limited. While downward movements in the wholesale price are passed on more fully to growers than increases in the wholesale price, only consumers in the North Central region of the U.S. share a larger portion of wholesalers’ price increases than price decreases.
Induced Policy Innovation: Environmental Compliance Requirements for Dairies in Texas and Florida
Authors: Thurow Amy Purvis , Holt John
Published: July 2016

Environmental policies make a difference in shaping producers' choices among dairy production technologies, the sizes and locations of their dairies, and even which dairies ultimately survive. Induced policy innovation means producers reacting to policies, and policies, in turn, being shaped by their effects. Profiles of experiences with environmental compliance in Texas and Florida were analyzed. Results demonstrate that the timing and sequencing of policy signals make a difference in compliance behavior and options. Furthermore, ex ante assessments of the costs of environmental compliance are challenging to carry out, and consequently can undermine the policy goal of maintaining the maximum number of options for compliance.
Relationships Between Industrialized Agriculture and Environmental Consequences: The Case of Vertical Coordination in Broilers and Hogs
Authors: Martin Laura L. , Zering Kelly D.
Published: July 2016

This paper examines the relationship between industrialized production in the pork and broiler industries and the natural environment. Historical perspectives are presented regarding the movement toward increasingly concentrated and coordinated pork and broiler production units in the South. The relationships between animal by-product management and environmental quality, both at the farm level and within a geographic region, are addressed. Using the North Carolina pork industry as a background, current regulations and potential policy implications to protect environmental quality are discussed.
Economic and Environmental Effects Associated with Reducing the Use of Atrazine: An Example of Cross-Disciplinary Research
Authors: Ribaudo Marc O. , Hurley Terrance M.
Published: July 2016

Restricting or eliminating the use of atrazine in the Midwest would have important economic consequences for farmers, consumers, and the environment. These consequences can only be evaluated with cooperation between economists and weed scientists. The weed control choice set available to farmers cannot be observed through deductive research. Economists and weed scientists worked together to identify all possible weed control strategies for corn and sorghum in the Midwest and to incorporate them into an economic model. An atrazine ban was found to be the costliest strategy, and a targeted, water-quality based strategy the most cost effective.
Competitive Strategies of Biotechnology Firms: Implications for U.S. Agriculture
Authors: Begemann Brett D.
Published: July 2016

The agricultural biotechnology industry has evolved from a focus on outstanding science to a more mature phase where firms focus on near-term products and building businesses. Understanding complex relationships and distribution channels and a global perspective are crucial to commercialization. Yet, leading-edge technology and early identification of key traits will be critical to developing superior products that ensure competitiveness in the marketplace. Monsanto is organizing around a life sciences model where seed, crop chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and food ingredient businesses will exploit mutual synergies driven by basic science and discovery.
Explaining Rural Household Participation in Recycling
Authors: Jakus Paul M. , Tiller Kelly H. , Park William M.
Published: July 2016

Rising landfill costs have forced solid waste managers to consider waste stream reduction alternatives such as household recycling. Explaining the factors which motivate households to recycle is important to regions where households must bear a large portion of the recycling cost because unit-based garbage disposal fees and curbside recycling are not feasible options. Empirical results indicate that residents are responsive to constraints introduced by the household production technology, such as time costs and storage space, but are not responsive to variables measuring a recycling promotional program. Promotion efforts should switch focus from broader “public good” benefits of recycling to reducing household-level household production constraints.
Estimating Insecticide Application Frequencies: A Comparison of Geometric and Other Count Data Models
Authors: Hubbell Bryan J.
Published: July 2016

The number of insecticide applications made by an apple grower to control an insect infestation is modeled as a geometric random variable. Insecticide efficacy, rate per application, month of treatment, and method of application all have significant impacts on the expected number of applications. The number of applications to control a given insect population is dependent on the probability of achieving successful control with a given application. Results suggest that northeastern growers have the highest and mid-Atlantic growers the lowest probability of controlling an infestation with a given application. Results also indicate that scales require the least and moths the most number of applications. Growers are not responsive to per unit insecticide prices, but respond negatively to insecticide toxicity, supporting findings from previous pesticide demand analyses.
Economic Criteria for Evaluating Commodity Price Forecasts
Authors: Dorfman Jeffrey H. , Mcintosh Christopher S.
Published: July 2016

Forecasts of economic time series are often evaluated according to their accuracy as measured by either quantitative precision or qualitative reliability. We argue that consumers purchase forecasts for the potential utility gains from utilizing them, not for their accuracy. Using Monte Carlo techniques to incorporate the temporal heteroskedasticity inherent in asset returns, the expected utility of a set of qualitative forecasts is simulated for corn and soybean futures prices. Monetary values for forecasts of various reliability levels are derived. The method goes beyond statistical forecast evaluation, allowing individuals to incorporate their own utility function and trading system into valuing a set of asset price forecasts.
Multivariate Procedures for Identifying Rural Land Submarkets
Authors: Kennedy Gary A. , Henning Steven A. , Vandeveer Lonnie R. , Dai Ming
Published: July 2016

Research has developed empirical models and procedures for analyzing factors which influence rural land markets; however, there have been limited efforts in developing procedures for identifying rural land submarkets. Principal component analysis is used here to detect the presence of multiple rural land submarkets. Cluster analysis is then used as a basis for identifying eight contiguous rural land submarkets in Louisiana. As opposed to single-attribute procedures that have been based largely on subjective judgment, multivariate procedures illustrated in this analysis provide a means for capturing the combined effects of physical and socioeconomic influences in delineating rural land submarkets.
Measuring Consumer Benefits of Food Safety Risk Reductions
Authors: Buzby Jean C. , Fox John A. , Ready Richard C. , Crutchfleld Stephen R.
Published: July 2016

Microbial pathogens and pesticide residues in food pose a financial burden to society which can be reduced by incurring costs to reduce these food safety risks. We explore three valuation techniques that place a monetary value on food safety risk reductions, and we present a case study for each: a contingent valuation survey on pesticide residues, an experimental auction market for a chicken sandwich with reduced risk of Salmonella, and a cost-of-illness analysis for seven foodborne pathogens. Estimates from these techniques can be used in cost/benefit analyses for policies that reduce food safety risks.
U.S.-China Agricultural Trade: Constraints and Potential
Authors: Wailes Eric J. , Fang Cheng , Tuan Francis C.
Published: July 2016

China's agricultural trade expanded rapidly following economic reforms and the open-door policy adopted in the late 1970s. The composition of agricultural trade with China follows its labor-abundant and land-scarce resource endowment with imports of bulk and processed intermediates and exports of consumer-ready and processed goods. Constraints on U.S.China agricultural trade include tariffs, state trading, food security policies, and other nontariff barriers. Growth potential is based on China's fundamental demand forces including the world's largest population, a high real-income growth rate, an emerging urban middle class, and further trade reforms to be implemented through accession to the World Trade Organization.
Chinese Consumer Demand for Animal Products and Implications for U.S. Pork and Poultry Exports
Authors: Wang Qingbin , Fuller Frank , Hayes Dermot , Halbrendt Catherine
Published: July 2016

This paper examines Chinese consumer preference for major animal products and assesses the potential impacts of a reduction in China's import tariff on its pork and poultry demand and net import. Our analysis suggests that China's demand for animal products will continue to grow as income increases. Using a trade model, results of our scenario analysis indicate that a reduction in China's import tariffs will significantly increase its net pork and poultry imports and the U.S. will capture most of the increases. Nevertheless, the impact on the market price in China and the U.S. is likely to be very small.
The Effect of Risk and Autonomy on Independent Hog Producers' Contracting Decisions
Authors: Gillespie Jeffrey M. , Eidman Vernon R.
Published: July 2016

The introduction of vertical coordination in the hog industry has provided producers with new business arrangements for raising hogs. While some researchers have elicited utility functions for hog producers on the basis of income risk, none have addressed autonomy, a factor which appears to be important in business arrangement selection for independent family hog operations. In this study, a method is developed for eliciting a multi-attribute function with attributes of income and autonomy. Utility functions are elicited for a group of Minnesota farrow-to-finish hog producers. For these producers, autonomy dominated risk as the most important attribute in business arrangement selection.
Analysis of Changing Methods of Vertical Coordination in the Pork Industry
Authors: Martinez Steve W. , Smith Kevin E. , Zering Kelly D.
Published: July 2016

This study examines the motivation behind contracts and vertical integration in the pork industry, and simulates the effects of potential improvements in coordination. Incentives related to lowering costs of measuring and sorting hogs, and protecting against opportunistic behavior associated with specific assets, can result in hog quality improvements. A framework for simulating the effects of increased coordination through contracts and vertical integration was developed and used to evaluate potential improvements in leanness. Although simulations suggest only modest changes in pork prices and supplies, gains in consumers' surplus could be substantial for larger demand shifts due to quality improvements.
Impacts of Financial Characteristics and the Boom-Bust Cycle on the Farm Inventory-Cash Flow Relationship
Authors: Bierlen Ralph , Ahrendsen Bruce L. , Dixon Bruce L.
Published: July 2016

The sensitivity of farm inventory investment to movements in cash flow is tested. Inventories should be sensitive to shifts in cash flow because inventory investment is readily reversible and inventories are a significant portion of assets. Investment models estimated with Kansas farm panel data indicate that: (a) farms absorb internal finance shocks by adjusting inventories, (b) the inventory investment of livestock and high-debt farms are more sensitive to movements in cash flow than crop and low-debt farms, and (c) inventory investment is more sensitive to cash flow during the 1981-86 bust and the 1987-92 recovery than during the 1975-80 boom.
Impact of Production Changes on Income and Environmental Risk in the Southern High Plains
Authors: Mapp Harry P.
Published: July 2016

Regional and farm-level analyses are conducted to evaluate the economic and environmental impacts of water quality protection policies. The regional analysis evaluates reducing nitrate losses by reducing per-acre nitrogen use, taxing nitrogen use, taxing irrigation water use, and reducing furrow irrigation. Incentives to convert furrow systems to sprinkler and LEPA systems outperform the other policies. The firm-level analysis derives farm plans that limit the expected values of environmental indices for nitrates and pesticides, and reduce the probability that specified targets will be exceeded. The analysis demonstrates the importance of evaluating environmental risk as a stochastic process.
The Changing Political Environment for Tobacco—Implications for Southern Tobacco Farmers, Rural Economies, Taxpayers, and Consumers
Authors: Brown A. Blake , Snell William M. , Tiller Kelly H.
Published: July 2016

The farm level economic implications of the political turmoil surrounding tobacco are examined. Tobacco ranks first in crop receipts in the Southeastern United States. Free market advocates typically want to eliminate the tobacco program because of its cartellike nature. Health advocates want to maintain the program because it limits tobacco production. Cigarette manufacturers tolerate the program because of the political support they receive from program stakeholders. The effects of cigarette price increases with and without a program are examined. Whether or not the program is maintained in the face of declining tobacco demand has significant implications for Southern agriculture.
Dairy Farm Size, Entry, and Exit in a Declining Production Region
Authors: Rahelizatovo Noro C. , Gillespie Jeffrey M.
Published: July 2016

As with most agricultural industries, the U.S. dairy industry has evolved into a structure including fewer yet larger firms. In Louisiana, total milk production has declined along with dairy farm numbers since 1972. This study addresses the impact of alternative policies, macroeconomic factors, and technology on the structure of the Louisiana dairy industry using a micro-data non-stationary Markov chain analysis. Results indicate that a number of factors have affected the structure of the industry in Louisiana, including but not limited to prices, milk supply reduction programs, technology and interest rates.
The Cotton Acreage Effects of Boll Weevil Eradication: A County-Level Analysis
Authors: Dumas Christopher F. , Goodhue Rachael E.
Published: July 2016

The success of the Boll Weevil Eradication (BWE) Program is believed to be one factor underlying the recent increase in cotton acreage in the Southeast. We find weak evidence that the initial, eradication phase of the BWE program decreases cotton acreage, and strong evidence that the second, maintenance phase of the program increases acreage. The full benefits associated with a BWE program may not become apparent until acreage adjustments occur, four to five years after program initiation. Our results indicate that for a representative sample county neglecting acreage effects may lead to underestimation of BWE program net benefits by 9 percent-12 percent.
Georgia Cotton Acreage Response to the Boll Weevil Eradication Program
Authors: Tribble Camille M. , Mcintosh Christopher S. , Wetzstein Michael E.
Published: July 2016

An adaptive regression model is employed for estimating pre- and post-boll weevil eradication cotton-acreage response. Results indicate cotton acreage becoming more inelastic to own- and cross-price changes. As a result of this shift in acreage response and yield increases from eradication, net producer benefits on average are $88.73 per acre.
The Environmental Effects of Adopting IPM Techniques: The Case of Peach Producers
Authors: Fernandez-Cornejo Jorge , Ferraioli Jennifer
Published: July 2016

The impact of adopting integrated pest management (IPM) techniques is examined for peach producers in eight states accounting for most of the U.S. production. The method accounts for self-selectivity, simultaneity, and the pesticide demand equations are theoretically consistent with a restricted-profit function. Biological pest management techniques tend to reduce pesticide use and pesticide toxicity substantially, while pesticide-efficiency techniques (using scouting and economic thresholds) have an increasing effect on pesticide use and toxicity, and cultural techniques have an insignificant effect on pesticide use and toxicity.
Exchange Rate Effects on Agricultural Trade
Authors: Orden David
Published: July 2016

With sustained appreciation of the U.S. dollar over the past 4 years, the exchange rate has again taken on importance for agriculture. This overview paper revisits the analysis of exchange rate impacts, reviewing the relevant conceptual arguments, summarizing the evidence economists and agricultural economists have marshaled from the 1970s and the 1980s and from several more recent papers, presenting some illustrative recent empirical analysis of exchange rate effects, and briefly examining the detrimental consequences that sustained appreciation of the dollar is having on U.S. farm policy.
Effects of Ownership Restrictions on Farmland Values in Saskatchewan
Authors: Carlberg Jared G.
Published: July 2016

Restrictions on the ownership of farmland by nonresidents of Saskatchewan were imposed by the Farmland Security Act (FSA) in 1974. The FSA has been blamed by some observers for depressed provincial land values. An adaptive expectations present value model is developed to estimate the effects of the FSA, with the province of Alberta included as a control. Results of seemingly unrelated regressions and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity estimates find no statistically significant effect of the FSA on the value of land in Saskatchewan. This may indicate that the effect of the regulatory change is too small to be measured accurately.
Characterizing Uncertain Outcomes with the Restricted HT Transformation
Authors: Moffitt L. Joe
Published: July 2016

Restrictions on the hyperbolic trigonometric (HT) transformation are imposed to guarantee that a probability density function is obtained from maximum likelihood estimation. Performance of the restricted HT transformation using data generated from normal, beta, gamma, logistic, log-normal, Pareto, Weibull, order statistic, and bimodal populations is investigated via sampling experiments. Results suggest that the restricted HT transformation is sufficiently flexible to compete with the actual population distributions in most cases. Application of the restricted HT transformation is illustrated by characterizing uncertain net income per acre for community-supported agriculture farms in the northeastern United States.
Visitor Preferences and Values for Water-Based Recreation: A Case Study of the Ocala National Forest
Authors: Shrestha Ram K. , Alavalapati Janaki R.R. , Stein Taylor V. , Carter Douglas R. , Denny Christine B.
Published: July 2016

We used the open-ended contingent valuation method to elicit willingness to pay (WTP) for day visitors and extended visitors on the Ocala National Forest (ONF), Florida. A Tobit model specification was applied to account for the issues involved with censored WTP bids. The results reveal that visitors would pay more for improved recreational facilities at the ONF. In particular, our estimates show that visitors would pay $1 million for basic facilities, $1.9 million for moderate improvements, and $2.5 million for more improvements.
Structural Changes in U.S. Agriculture: Implications for Small Farms
Authors: Gebremedhin Tesfa G. , Christy Ralph D.
Published: July 2016

A descriptive analysis and a survey of literature were used in this assessment of the transformation of the structure of production agriculture. The changes in production agriculture have important implications for resource use, population distribution in rural communities, and the survival of small farms. The shifting structural change in production agriculture as a response to economic and technological adjustments is not a temporary phenomenon. The economic and natural base of agriculture will change toward greater capital intensity and concentration of ownership, and will raise public policy questions in relation to the survival of a large farm population.
Small Farms and Sustainable Development: Is Small More Sustainable? Discussion
Authors: Henry Mark S.
Published: July 2016

In their paper, “Small Farms and Sustainable Development: Is Small More Sustainable?” D'Souza and Ikerd examine the potential linkages between two streams of analysis—“sustainable development” and “small farms.” This is a worthwhile objective, as there has been little effort to link the two together. This is—as the authors note—a surprising gap in the thinking about forces that might lead to long-term sustainability in agricultural production. The authors are right to bring the issue to our attention.
A Decision Support Aid for Beef Cattle Investment Using Expert Systems
Authors: Falconer Lawrence L. , Long Charles R. , McGrann James M.
Published: July 2016

The beef cattle investment decision provides an excellent opportunity to increase the economic efficiency of beef cattle production. The investment questions that face beef cattle producers are of interest to beef cattle producers, educators, and financial institutions involved in lending to beef cattle producing firms. This study develops a decision support aid utilizing expert system technology to assist beef cattle producers in making well-founded investment decisions with respect to the firm's beef cattle herd.
Manure Value and Liveweight Swine Decisions
Authors: Roka Fritz M. , Hoag Dana L.
Published: July 2016

Produced as a joint product, economic theory suggests that manure value could influence livestock management decisions such as herd size and optimal market weights. This study examines the concept of manure value and its connection with optimal replacement age or market weight. A model of a swine finishing operation representative of North Carolina conditions is developed. Over the range of conditions considered, manure value is negative and does not affect market weights. The marginal per head change in manure value is small relative to the marginal per head change in net returns from pork production. Further, economies of scale with respect to irrigation cause manure value to increase with herd size.
Grantsmanship and Consulting Policy
Authors: Knutson Ronald D.
Published: July 2016

Market forces, when viewed from the perspective of faculty salaries alone, clearly indicate that the highest and best use of a faculty member's time and expertise is no longer university employment. As a result, many productive faculty members are becoming increasingly dissatisfied, and many top domestic undergraduate students are eliminating academia as an employment alternative. This trend operates to the long-run detriment of the land grant university system. In part, these forces are a direct result of outdated and/or unimaginative administrative policies, inadequate reward systems, and the inability of the profession to demonstrate its productivity in terms that society understands and appreciates. Implications are drawn for land grant consulting and grantsmanship policy.