bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Chronotherapeutic effect of orexin antagonists on glucose metabolism in diabetic mice
Authors: Kon Kanta , Tsuneki Hiroshi , Ito Hisakatsu , Takemura Yoshinori , Sato Kiyofumi , Yamazaki Mitsuaki , Ishii Yoko , Sasahara Masakiyo , Rudich Assaf , Maeda Takahiro , Wada Tsutomu , Sasaoka Toshiyasu
Published: August 2019

Disrupted sleep is associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes. Central actions of orexin, mediated by orexin-1 and orexin-2 receptors, play a crucial role in the maintenance of wakefulness; accordingly, excessive activation of the orexin system causes insomnia. Resting-phase administration of dual orexin receptor antagonist (DORA) has been shown to improve sleep abnormalities and glucose intolerance in type 2 diabetic db/db mice, although the mechanism remains unknown. In the present study, to investigate the presence of functional link between sleep and glucose metabolism, the influences of orexin antagonists with or without sleep-promoting effects were compared on glucose metabolism in diabetic mice. In db/db mice, 2-SORA-MK1064 (an orexin-2 receptor antagonist) and DORA-12 (a DORA) acutely improved non-rapid eye movement sleep, whereas 1-SORA-1 (an orexin-1 receptor antagonist) had no effect. Chronic resting-phase administration of these drugs improved glucose intolerance, without affecting body weight, food intake, locomotor activity and energy expenditure calculated from O2 consumption and CO2 production. The expression levels of proinflammatory factors in the liver were reduced by 2-SORA-MK1064 and DORA-12, but not 1-SORA-1, whereas those in the white adipose tissue were reduced by 1-SORA-1 and DORA-12 more efficiently than 2-SORA-MK1064. When administered chronically at awake phase, these drugs caused no effect. In streptozotocin-induced type 1-like diabetic mice, neither abnormality in sleep–wake behavior nor improvement of glucose intolerance by these drugs were observed. These results suggest that both 1-SORA-type (sleep-independent) and 2-SORA-type (possibly sleep-dependent) mechanisms can provide chronotherapeutic effects against type 2 diabetes associated with sleep disturbances in db/db mice.
The Concepts CENTRE and PERIPHERY in the History of Linguistics: From Field Theory to Modern Cognitivism
Authors: Skrebtsova Tatyana
Published: August 2019

The terms “centre” and “periphery” commonly used nowadays in cognitive studies of language can be traced to earlier linguistic theories. One is field theory advanced by German linguists in the inter-war period. Here, the notions of centre and periphery, along with an array of other spatial images served to visualize the structure of lexical fields. Another tradition in the use of the terms stems from the works of the Prague linguistic circle. Czech scholars claimed that linguistic units vary in their degree of integration into the system. Well -integrated items are associated with the notion of centre while those lacking integration are characterized as peripheral. Cognitive linguistics has offered yet another perspective on the notions concerned. Drawing on Eleanor Rosch’s prototype theory, centre is associated with the category’s best example and periphery with its non-typical members. Thus, terms being the same, their implications differ significantly. It turns out that both field theory and Prague school used them in the context of language-as-an-autonomous-structure view, in accordance with the dominant structuralist paradigm. Cognitive linguistics picked up the psychological approach to the notions of centre and periphery, linking them to subjects’ ratings of category members, and hence to our mental models of the world. These interpretations more often are compatible than non-compatible.
Electric field and Electric Forces in a Spontaneously Polarized Nonpolar Isotropic Dielectric
Authors: Tomchenko M. D.
Published: August 2019

Based on the microscopic Maxwell equations, we develop a method of description of the electric field in a spontaneously polarized isotropic nonpolar dielectric. We find the solution for the electric field E(r) for several typical examples. Moreover, we generalize Helmholtz’s formula for the electric force acting on a volume element of a dielectric with regard for the contribution of the spontaneous polarization.
Local Magnetic Anisotropy of the Co-Based Amorphous Alloy
Authors: Sizova Z. I. , Gorbatch V. N. , Mozul K. A.
Published: August 2019

The magnetization, initial magnetic susceptibility, and magnetostriction of a multicomponent Co-based amorphous alloy have been studied. The exchange constant a and the Curie temperature TC of the alloy are determined. On the basis of a method based on the theory of stochastic magnetic structure for amorphous ferromagnets and using the magnetization curves, the correlation field Hℓ, the field Ha, the effective constant of local magnetic anisotropy Keff, and the stochastic characteristics of local anisotropy – the mean square field fluctuations and the correlation radius – have been calculated. The temperature behavior of the examined magnetic characteristics is analyzed. The results of magnetostriction research allow a conclusion to be drawn that the local magnetic anisotropy of the alloy has a single-ion origin.
ELEMENTS OF PRINCIPLES INFLUENCING THE PARK COMPOSITION
Authors: Despot Katerina , Sandeva Vaska
Published: August 2019

The composition occupies a central place in the system of concepts describing the visual image. It is related to the history and the aesthetic categories and to the commonality with the term "whole". In the theory of park art, term composition means - arrangement of individual plants or combined with dead materials so as to form a harmonious whole subordinate to the artistic idea. The main theoretical works in park art are closely related to the principles of the general theory of composition. In every art, the idea is expressed by an artistic image that is specific to the artificial form of aesthetic, concrete-sensory drawing of the action.
INFLUENCE OF ADDITIVES ON SPECTROSCOPIC CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CARMINIC ACID
Authors: Rakić Violeta , Miljković Milena , Miljković Vojkan , Stančić Nemanja
Published: August 2019

Foods must have attractive color, flavor and texture to be acceptable to consumers. Carminic acid (C.I. (1956) 75470; C.I. Natural Red 4; EEC No. E120) is a natural red dye extracted from cochineal, the desiccated bodies of female Dactylopius coccus Costa insects. Carminic acid produce pink shades in candy, confections, chewing gum, concentrated fruit juice, smoked fish, liqueurs and alcoholic cordials, soft drinks, yoghurt, ice cream, tomato ketchup, baked goods, dairy products, jams, jellies, eye shadow, and pill coatings. The impact of the presence of aspartame, citric acid and vitamin C on the spectrophotometric parameters of carminic acid was investigated. These results enabled us to evaluate the possibility of using UV-Vis spectrophotometric method for easily identifying and quantifying carminic acid present in a wide variety of foodstuffs in the presence of additives. It was established that the inves­tigated additives do not affect the position of absorbance maximum of the dye nor cause changes in its intensity. The value of molar absorptivity, ε, at 518 nm was 1265.68 ± 49.90 dm3/mol∙cm. The calculated value is necessary for the quantitative spectrophotometric determination of carminic acid food dye. The FT IR spectra of the dye was also recorded.
Speciális májműtét (Associating Liver Partition and Portal vein ligation for Staged hepatectomy, ALPPS) morbiditásának csökkentése átértékelt betegkiválasztási elvek és műtéttechnikai módosítás révén
Authors: Hahn Oszkár , Bárdos Dávid , Kupcsulik Péter , Szijártó Attila , Fülöp András , Kokas Bálint , Pekli Damján , Zsirka-Klein Attila , Dudás Ibolyka , Pajor Péter , Harsányi László
Published: August 2019

Abstract:

Introduction: Resecability of liver tumors is exclusively depending on the future liver remnant (FLR). The remnant can be hypertrophised using portal vein occlusion techniques. The latest hypertrophising method is Associating Liver Partition and Portal vein ligation for Staged hepatectomy (ALPPS), which provides the most significant induced hypertrophy in the shortest time. Morbidity and mortality of this procedure were initially unacceptably high. Aim: Reducing complications by better patient selection and modified surgical technique. Method: The First Department of Surgery, Semmelweis University, Budapest, prefers the ‘no touch’ technique, instead of ‘complete mobilization’. For optimizing patient selection, an international registry (including our patients’ data) was established. In addition to the surgical, we collected demographic, disease, liver function, histology, morbidity (Clavien–Dindo) and mortality parameters. Volume and function measurements were performed by using CT-volumetry and 99mtechnecium-mebrofenin SPECT/CT. Data were analyzed by multivariate analysis (significance: p<0.05). Results: We performed 20 ALPPS procedures from 2012 to 2018. The relative volume increment and resectability in our department and among the 320 registry patients were 96% vs. 86% and 95% vs. 98%. Using ‘no touch’ technique, the Clavien–Dindo III–IV morbidity and mortality rates were significantly lower (22%–0%) than with ‘complete mobilization’ (63%–36%) (p<0.05). Based on the multivariate analysis of the registry patients, age over 60 years, liver macrosteatosis, non-colorectal liver tumor, >300 minutes operation time, >2 units of red blood cell transfusion, or insufficient FLR function before stage 2 were identified as independent factors influencing mortality (p<0.05). Conclusion: Mortality and morbidity of ALPPS can be reduced by proper patient selection and ‘no touch’ surgical technique. Orv Hetil. 2019; 160(32): 1260–1269.
Absence of Singularity in Schwarzschild Metric in the Vector Model for Gravitational Field
Authors: On Vo Van
Published: August 2019

In this paper, based on the vector model for gravitational field we deduce an equation to determinate the metric of space-time. This equation is similar to equation of Einstein. The metric of space-time outside a static spherically symmetric body is also determined. It gives a small supplementation to the Schwarzschild metric in General theory of relativity but the singularity does not exist. Especially, this model predicts the existence of a new universal body after a black hole.
An Analysis of Patients with DNA Repair Pathway Mutations Treated with a PARP Inhibitor
Authors: Borazanci Erkut , Korn Ronald , Liang Winnie S. , Guarnieri Carol , Haag Susan , Snyder Courtney , Hendrickson Kristin , Caldwell Lana , Von Hoff Dan , Jameson Gayle
Published: August 2019

Background

Molecular analysis has revealed four subtypes of pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). One subtype identified for the presence of DNA damage repair deficiency can be targeted therapeutically with the poly (ADP-ribose) polymerase (PARP) inhibitor olaparib. We performed a single institution retrospective analysis of treatment response in patients with PDAC treated with olaparib who have DNA damage repair deficiency mutations.

Subjects, Materials, and Methods

Patients with germline or somatic mutations involving the DNA repair pathway were identified and treated with olaparib. The primary objective was to examine the objective response rate (ORR). The secondary objectives were assessing tolerability, overall survival, and change in cancer antigen 19-9. Quantitative texture analysis (QTA) was evaluated from CT scans to explore imaging biomarkers.

Results

Thirteen individuals with metastatic PDAC were treated with Olaparib. The ORR to Olaparib was 23%. Median overall survival (OS) was 16.47 months. Four of seven patients with BRCA mutations had an effect on RAD51 binding, with a median OS of 24.60 months. Exploratory analysis of index lesions using QTA revealed correlations between lesion texture and OS (hepatic lesion tumor texture correlation coefficient [CC], 0.683, p = .042) and time on olaparib (primary pancreatic lesion tumor texture CC, 0.778, p = .023).

Conclusion

In individuals with metastatic PDAC who have mutations involved in DNA repair, Olaparib may provide clinical benefit. BRCA mutations affecting RAD51 binding domains translated to improved median OS. QTA of individual tumors may allow for additional information that predicts outcomes to treatment with PARP inhibitors.
Effects of polycarboxylate architecture on flow behaviour of cement paste
Authors: Wang Xiumei , Yang Yong , Shu Xin , Ran Qianping , Liu Jiaping
Published: August 2019

The effect of polycarboxylate superplasticiser (PCS) architecture in terms of a flexible or rigid backbone and repartition of side-chains along the backbone on the hydrodynamic radius, adsorption properties, flow behaviour and rheological behaviour was systematically evaluated. PCSs with different architectures were found to affect the flow behaviour of cement paste differently, mainly due to difference in PCS surface coverage area on cement particle surfaces. The PCS surface coverage area on cement particle surfaces was determined by the adsorption layer thickness of a single PCS molecule and the adsorption amount. The adsorption layer thickness of a single PCS molecule is correlated with the hydrodynamic radius in solution. The PCS with a rigid structure in the main chain had a more coiled conformation, with an inevitably smaller hydrodynamic radius and thus a thinner adsorption layer. The adsorption amount is closely related to the exposed density of carboxylic groups. A more extended solution conformation facilitates the exposure of carboxylic groups, which is beneficial for the adsorption of PCS onto cement particle surfaces. As a consequence, the thicker the adsorption layer thickness of a single PCS molecule and a larger adsorption amount results in larger PCS surface coverage area on cement particle surfaces, producing better workability of cement paste.
Mathematical modelling of the mechanical response of earth embankments on piled foundations
Authors: di Prisco Claudio , Flessati Luca , Frigerio Gabriele , Galli Andrea
Published: August 2019

Piled foundations are largely employed as settlement reducers in the design of artificial embankments on soft soil strata. The commonly employed design methods are, however, based on simplified approaches not allowing the assessment of average and differential settlements at the top of the embankment. With this objective, the authors introduce a generalised constitutive relationship capable of accounting for irreversibilities stemming from both geometrical evolution and soil yielding. The model derives from the interpretation of the results of a campaign of three-dimensional elastic–plastic finite-difference numerical analyses describing the embankment construction process. Numerous simplifying assumptions (for instance smooth pile shaft, drained conditions) have been employed. Nevertheless, this does not compromise the theoretical value of the proposed approach. From a practical point of view, this model is a useful tool for geotechnical engineers to employ with a displacement-based design perspective.
Liquefaction induced by deep vertical vibratory compaction
Authors: Massarsch K. Rainer , Wersäll Carl , Fellenius Bengt H.
Published: August 2019

Three case histories were analysed where three different methods of deep vertical vibratory compaction were used to treat loose, water-saturated sand. Vertically oscillating probes not only generate cylindrical waves with strong ground vibrations that cause compaction of the soil but may also result in liquefaction. Cone penetration tests (CPTs) were performed before and after treatment to evaluate the compaction effect. Soil liquefaction could be observed on all sites during the start of deep vibratory compaction. On two sites, the onset of liquefaction could be documented by vibration measurements. A conventional CPT-based liquefaction analysis was performed, which suggested that liquefaction could be expected at all sites. The case histories analysed in this study suggest that vertically oscillating probes have the potential of being used as full-scale liquefaction testing machines. A new concept is outlined that could be used to establish the liquefaction hazard at a particular site.
Sedimentation Process of Rambatan Formation in Larangan Brebes, North Serayu Range, Central Java
Authors: Astuti Bernadeta Subandini , Isnaniawardhani Vijaya , Abdurrokhim Abdurrokhim , Sudradjat Adjat
Published: August 2019

DOI:10.17014/ijog.6.2.141-151Rambatan Formation in the western part of North Serayu Basin, Brebes, Central Java, comprises generally flysch facies of turbidite sediments deposited in a deep marine environment. This formation is equivalent to Merawu Formation found in the eastern part of the basin and deposited in the environment of tidal flat to subtidal. The turbidite sediments were highly controlled by a rapid downward movement taking place continuously during Early to Late Miocene. The variation of the depositional environment has been the object of this research which aims to understand the sedimentation process of Rambatan Formation in this type locality with a modern turbidite approach. Rambatan Formation was deposited in N13-N19, as a deep marine sediment channel, turbidite, and deep marine tidal zone. The sedimentation was affected by gravity flow and contourite. The sediments on N13-N14 were marked by turbidite sediments until Middle N17. The sediment supply increased on Middle N17, as a sediment filler on a channel marked by contourite mud layer (muddy slump) and debris flow, with sources from the north. The increase of sediment supply was followed by an environmental transformation from a deep marine channel into deep marine tidal area. In N19, the sediments were redeposited as turbidite sediment, starting with debris flow in Middle N18.
Facies Associations of Early Cretaceous Arumit Formation and Early to Late Cretaceous Ungar Formation in Vulmali and Ungar Islands, Tanimbar (Indonesia)
Authors: Fakhruddin Rakhmat
Published: August 2019

DOI:10.17014/ijog.6.2.185-208Cretaceous sediments are among the important petroleum system elements for hydrocarbon exploration in Tanimbar area. However, little is known about their facies associations and depositional environments. Facies association analyses have been carried out in fourteen surface sections. Early Cretaceous Arumit Formation comprises three facies associations: subtidal, intertidal, and supratidal deposits. A progradational open-coast tidal flat depositional environment suggests the deposition of sediments of the Arumit Formation. The presence of tidal rhythmites, mud drapes, and fluid mud in those sediments are diagnostic features of a tide domination process in deposition of this unit. Early to Late Cretaceous Ungar Formation in the studied area consists of four facies associations: intertidal, marine offshore to lower shoreface, upper shoreface, and foreshore deposits. An open-coast wave dominated depositional environment is proposed for deposition of sediments of the Ungar Formation. Wave dominated environments in the coarsening upward interval is represented by hummocky cross stratification, cross-bedded sand and gravel, planar parallel stratification, and low-angle stratified beds.
Household Saving and Portfolio Change: Evidence from the 1983-89 SCF Panel
Authors: Kennickell Arthur B. , Starr-McCluer Martha
Published: August 2019

There are very few sources of high-quality data on the dynamics of wealth accumulation. This paper uses newly-available data from the 1983-89 panel of the Survey of Consumer Finances to examine household saving and portfolio change over the 1980s. The 1983 SCF collected detailed information on households' assets, liabilities, income and other characteristics for a sample of 4,103 families. In 1989, 1,479 of these families were re-interviewed using a similar questionnaire. After describing the sample and methodology of the panel survey, we analyze changes in household wealth over the 1983-89 period. We also investigate changes in the structure of households' assets and liabilities.
The Lead of Output Over Inflation in Sticky Price Models
Authors: Kiley Michael T.
Published: August 2019

Output growth is negatively correlated with inflation, and detrended output is positively correlated with inflation, in the major North American and European economies. In addition, output growth and detrended output lead inflation. I explore the consistency of these correlations with three models of price adjustment: the partial adjustment model, a staggered price setting model, and the P-bar model. The ratio of the variance of supply to demand shocks necessary to match the pattern of output- inflation correlations can be ranked across the three models; the P-Bar model requires the lowest ratio, and the partial adjustment model requires the highest ratio. These results reveal that the recent burst of researchers using the partial adjustment model will find a larger role for supply shocks than alternative models of price rigidity.
Unemployment and the Durational Structure of Exit Rates
Authors: Whelan Karl
Published: August 2019

This paper presents a simple model of wage bargaining and employment flows designed to address the effects of policies to increase the rate of exit to employment of the long-term unemployed. Exit rates from long- and short-term unemployment have two effects on the unemployment rate: a positive one as high exit rates strengthen current employees' bargaining positions and thus wages and a negative one as faster outflows from unemployment reduce the stock of unemployed. Thus, there is a trade-off between the exit rate from long-term unemployment and the exit rate from short-term unemployment. The paper's principal result is that, in steady-state, increasing the exit rate from long-term unemployment reduces the unemployment rate. Dynamic simulations show that raising the exit rate of the long-term unemployed leads to a decrease in both the mean and variance of the unemployment rate.
A Generalization of Generalized Beta Distributions
Authors: Gordy Michael B.
Published: August 2019

This paper introduces the "compound confluent hypergeometric" (CCH) distribution. The CCH unifies and generalizes three recently introduced generalizations of the beta distribution: the Gauss hypergeometric (GH) distribution of Armero and Bayarri (1994), the generalized beta (GB) distribution of McDonald and Xu (1995), and the confluent hypergeometric (CH) distribution of Gordy (forthcoming). Unlike the beta, GB and GH, the CCH allows for conditioning on explanatory variables in a natural and convenient way. The CCH family is conjugate for gamma distributed signals, and so may also prove useful in Bayesian analysis. Application of the CCH is demonstrated with two measures of household liquid assets. In each case, the CCH yields a statistically significant improvement in fit over the more restrictive alternatives.
How Does the Market Interpret Analysts' Long-Term Growth Forecasts?
Authors: Sharpe Steven A.
Published: August 2019

The long-term growth forecasts of equity analysts do not have well-defined horizons, an ambiguity of substantial import for many applications. I propose an empirical valuation model, derived from the Campbell-Shiller dividend-price ratio model, in which the forecast horizon used by the "market" can be deduced from linear regressions. Specifically, in this model, the horizon can be inferred from the elasticity of the price-earnings ratio with respect to the long-term growth forecast. The model is estimated on industry- and sector-level portfolios of S&P; 500 firms over 1983-2001. The estimated coefficients on consensus long-term growth forecasts suggest that the market applies these forecasts to an average horizon of at least 6 years, and as many as 10 years.
Foreclosing on Opportunity: State Laws and Mortgage Credit
Authors: Pence Karen M.
Published: August 2019

Foreclosure laws govern the rights of borrowers and lenders when borrowers default on mortgages. Many states protect borrowers by imposing restrictions on the foreclosure process; these restrictions, in turn, impose large costs on lenders. Lenders may respond to these higher costs by reducing loan supply; borrowers may respond to the protections imbedded in these laws by demanding larger mortgages. I examine empirically the effect of the laws on equilibrium loan size. I exploit the rich geographic information available in the 1994 and 1995 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act data to compare mortgage applications for properties located in census tracts that border each other, yet are located in different states. Using semiparametric estimation methods, I find that defaulter-friendly foreclosure laws are correlated with a four percent to six percent decrease in loan size. This result suggests that defaulter-friendly foreclosure laws impose costs on borrowers at the time of loan origination.
Does Bank Lending Affect Output? Evidence from the U.S. States
Authors: Driscoll John C.
Published: August 2019

This paper uses a panel of state-level data to test whether changes in bank loan supply affect output. Since the U.S. states are small open economies with fixed exchange rates, state-specific shocks to money demand are automatically accommodated, leading to changes in lending if banks rely on deposits as a source of funding. Using these shocks as an instrumental variable, I find that shocks to money demand have large and statistically significant effects on the supply of bank loans, but loans have small, often negative, and statistically insignificant effects on output.
Inflation Targets, Credibility, and Persistence in a Simple Sticky-Price Framework
Authors: Rudd Jeremy Bay , Whelan Karl
Published: August 2019

This paper presents a re-formulated version of a canonical sticky-price model that has been extended to account for variations over time in the central bank's inflation target. We derive a closed-form solution for the model, and analyze its properties under various parameter values. The model is used to explore topics relating to the effects of disinflationary monetary policies and inflation persistence. In particular, we employ the model to illustrate and assess the critique that standard sticky-price models generate counterfactual predictions for the effects of monetary policy.
How Fast Do Personal Computers Depreciate? Concepts and New Estimates
Authors: Doms Mark E. , Dunn Wendy E. , Oliner Stephen D. , Sichel Daniel E.
Published: August 2019

This paper provides new estimates of depreciation rates for personal computers using an extensive database of prices of used PCs. Our results show that PCs lose roughly half their remaining value, on average, with each additional year of use. We decompose that decline into age-related depreciation and a revaluation effect, where the latter effect is driven by the steep ongoing drop in the constant-quality prices of newly-introduced PCs. Our results are directly applicable for measuring the depreciation of PCs in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) and were incorporated into the December 2003 comprehensive NIPA revision. Regarding tax policy, our estimates suggest that the current tax depreciation schedule for PCs closely tracks the actual loss of value in a zero-inflation environment. However, because the tax code is not indexed for inflation, the tax allowances would be too small in present value for inflation rates above the very low level now prevailing.
The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the United States
Authors: Davis Morris A. , Heathcote Jonathan
Published: August 2019

We combine publicly available data from Freddie Mac, the Decennial Census of Housing, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis to construct the first constant-quality aggregate price index for the stock of residential land in the United States. We uncover five main results: (a) since 1970, residential land prices have grown faster but (b) have also been twice as volatile as existing home prices; (c) averaged from 1970 to 2003, the nominal stock of residential land under 1-4 unit structures accounts for 38% of the market value of the housing stock and is equal to 50% of nominal annual GDP; (d) the real stock of residential land under 1-4 unit structures has increased an average of 0.6% per year since 1970; and (e) residential investment leads the price of residential land by three quarters. We also estimate that in 2003:Q3 the nominal value of the entire stock of residential land is the same as annual GDP. Finally, we show for the US data that the logarithms of the nominal price index for residential land, disposable income, and interest rates are cointegrated.
Do Actions Speak Louder Than Words? The Response of Asset Prices to Monetary Policy Actions and Statements
Authors: Gürkaynak Refet S. , Sack Brian , Swanson Eric T.
Published: August 2019

We investigate the effects of U.S. monetary policy on asset prices using a high-frequency event-study analysis. We test whether these effects are adequately captured by a single factor--changes in the federal funds rate target-and find that they are not. Instead, we find that two factors are required. These factors have a structural interpretation as a "current federal funds rate target" factor and a "future path of policy" factor, with the latter closely associated with FOMC statements. We measure the effects of these two factors on bond yields and stock prices using a new intraday dataset going back to 1990. According to our estimates, both monetary policy actions and statements have important but differing effects on asset prices, with statements having a much greater impact on longer-term Treasury yields.
Who Competes with Whom? The Case of Depository Institutions
Authors: Adams Robert M. , Brevoort Kenneth P. , Kiser Elizabeth K.
Published: August 2019

Little empirical work exists on the substitutability of depository institutions. In particular, the willingness of consumers to substitute banks for thrifts and to switch between multimarket and single-market institutions (i.e., institutions with large vs. small branch networks) has been of strong interest to policymakers. We estimate a structural model of consumer choice of depository institutions using a panel data set that includes most depository institutions and market areas in the United States over the period 1990-2001. Using a flexible framework, we uncover utility parameters that affect a consumer&#x27;s choice of institution and measure the degree of market segmentation for two institution subgroups. We use our estimates to calculate elasticities and perform policy experiments that measure the substitutability of firms within and across groupings. We find both dimensions--thrifts and banks, and single- and multimarket institutions--to be important market segments to consumer choice and, ultimately, to competition in both urban and rural markets.
GSEs, Mortgage Rates, and Secondary Market Activities
Authors: Lehnert Andreas , Passmore Wayne , Sherlund Shane M.
Published: August 2019

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) that purchase mortgages and issue mortgage-backed securities (MBS). In addition, the GSEs are active participants in the primary and secondary mortgage markets on behalf of their own portfolios of MBS. Because these portfolios have grown quite large, portfolio purchases as well as MBS issuance are likely to be important forces in the mortgage market. This paper examines the statistical evidence of a connection between GSE actions and the interest rates paid by mortgage borrowers. We find that both portfolio purchases and MBS issuance have negligible effects on mortgage rate spreads and that purchases are not any more effective than securitization at reducing mortgage interest rate spreads. We also examine the 1998 liquidity crisis and find that GSE portfolio purchases did little to affect interest rates paid by borrowers. These results are robust to alternative assumptions about causality and to model specification.
Executive Financial Incentives and Payout Policy: Firm Responses to the 2003 Dividend Tax Cut
Authors: Brown Jeffrey R. , Liang J. Nellie , Weisbenner Scott J.
Published: August 2019

Using the 2003 reduction in dividend tax rates to identify an exogenous change in the after-tax value of dividends to shareholders, we test whether stock holdings among company executives is an important determinant of payout policy. We have three primary findings. First, we find that when top executives have greater stock ownership, and thus an incentive to increase dividends for personal liquidity reasons, there is a significantly greater likelihood of a dividend increase following the 2003 dividend tax cut, whereas no such relation existed in the prior decade when the dividend tax rate was much higher. This finding is strongest for dividend initiations, and is robust to a rich set of firm and shareholder characteristics. Second, we provide evidence that approximately one-third of the firms that initiated dividends in 2003, a higher share than in previous years, scaled back share repurchases by an amount sufficient to reduce their total payouts. This offset potentially raised the total tax burden on shareholders at these firms because share repurchases are still tax-advantaged relative to dividends. Third, we find that while dividend-paying firms with a larger fraction of individual shareholders had greater stock price gains in response to the tax cut, the market appears to have at least partially anticipated that executives with high stock ownership might raise dividends at the expense of share repurchases and increase the average tax burden for individuals, which is consistent with the presence of agency conflicts within the firm.
The Price of Residential Land in Large U.S. Cities
Authors: Davis Morris A. , Palumbo Michael G.
Published: August 2019

Combining data from several sources, we build a database of home values, the cost of housing structures, and residential land values for 46 large U.S. metropolitan areas from 1984 to 2004. Our analysis of these new data reveal that since the mid-1980s residential land values have appreciated over a much wider range of cities than is commonly believed. And, since 1998, almost all large U.S. cities have seen significant increases in real residential land prices. Averaging across the cities in our sample, by year-end 2004, the value of residential land accounted for about 50 percent of the total market value of housing, up from 32 percent in 1984. An implication of our results is that the future course of home prices--their average rate of appreciation and their volatility--is likely to be determined even more by the course of land prices than used to be the case.
Shifting Trends in Semiconductor Prices and the Pace of Technological Progress
Authors: Sichel Daniel E. , Aizcorbe Ana M. , Oliner Stephen D.
Published: August 2019

This paper examines three questions motivated by previous research on semiconductors and productivity growth: Why did semiconductor prices fall so rapidly in the second half of the 1990s, why has the rate of price decline slowed since 2001, and to what extent are these price swings associated with changes in the rate of advance in semiconductor technology? We show that the price swings are statistically significant and that they reflect changes in both price-cost markups and cost trends. Further analysis indicates that the shift to faster cost declines in the mid-1990s likely corresponded to a speed-up in the pace of advance in semiconductor technology; however, the slower cost declines since 2001 appear not to have been mirrored by a deceleration in technology. Consequently, researchers should be cautious about associating price or cost movements for semiconductors with changes in the pace of underlying technology even over moderately long periods.
The Competitive Effects of Risk-Based Bank Capital Regulation: An Example from U.S. Mortgage Markets
Authors: Hancock Diana , Lehnert Andreas , Passmore Wayne , Sherlund Shane M.
Published: August 2019

Basel II bank capital regulations are designed to be substantially more risk sensitive than the current regulations. In the United States, only the largest banks would be required to adopt Basel II; other depositories could choose to adopt such standards or to remain under the Basel I capital standards. We consider possible effects of this two-pronged or “bifurcated” approach on the market for residential mortgages. Specifically, we analyze whether those institutions that adopt Basel II will enjoy lower costs than nonadopters and whether they have an incentive to retain mortgages in their own portfolios. We find that (1) despite the large differences in regulatory capital requirements between adopters and nonadopters, it is unlikely that there will be any measurable effect of Basel II implementation on most mortgage rates and, consequently, any direct impact on the competition between adopters and nonadopters for originating or holding residential mortgages; (2) the most significant competitive impact may be felt among mortgage securitizers; and (3) adopters might have increased profits from some mortgages relative to nonadopters because they will capture some of the deadweight losses that occur under the current regulatory regime, but nonadopters would likely retain their market shares.
Anchoring Bias in Consensus Forecasts and its Effect on Market Prices
Authors: Campbell Sean D. , Sharpe Steven A.
Published: August 2019

Previous empirical studies that test for the 'rationality' of economic and financial forecasts generally test for generic properties such as bias or autocorrelated errors, and provide limited insight into the behavior behind inefficient forecasts. In this paper we test for a specific behavioral bias--the anchoring bias described by Tversky and Kahneman (1974). In particular, we examine whether expert consensus forecasts of monthly economic releases from Money Market Services surveys from 1990-2006 have a tendency to be systematically biased toward the value of previous months' data releases. We find broadbased and significant evidence for the anchoring hypothesis; consensus forecasts are biased towards the values of previous months' data releases, which in some cases results in sizable predictable forecast errors. Then, to investigate whether the market participants anticipate the bias, we examine the response of interest rates to economic news. We find that bond yields react only to the residual, or unpredictable, component of the surprise and not to the expected piece of the forecast error apparently induced by anchoring. This suggests market participants anticipate the anchoring bias embedded in expert forecasts.
Habit Persistence, Non-separability Between Consumption and Leisure, or Rule-of-Thumb Consumers: Which Accounts for the Predictability of Consumption Growth?
Authors: Kiley Michael T.
Published: August 2019

Consumption growth is predictable, a basic violation of the permanent-income hypothesis. This paper examines three possible explanations: rule-of-thumb behavior, in which households allow consumption to track per-period income flows rather than permanent income; habit persistence; and non-separability in preferences over consumption and leisure. The data appear most consistent with non-separable preferences over consumption and leisure.
Fiscal Amenities, School Finance Reform and the Supply Side of the Tiebout Market
Authors: Lutz Byron F.
Published: August 2019

This study asks if local governments that provide a high level of public services per tax dollar attract housing capital. The first portion of the paper examines large shifts in property tax burdens induced by an unusual school finance reform in the state of New Hampshire. The estimates suggest that, in most of the state, communities with a reduced tax burden experience a large increase in residential construction. In the area of the state near the region's primary urban center (Boston), however, the shock clears through a price adjustment -- i.e., by capitalizing into property values. The differing responses are attributed to differing housing supply elasticities. Furthermore, the shock induced communities with a lowered tax burden to enact more stringent land use regulations. The second portion of the paper uses a national sample and exploits variation in education spending levels arising from 1980s era school finance reforms. The results confirm the findings from New Hampshire -- fiscal amenities have a significant impact on the location of residential capital and the impact is largest outside of dense, urban areas. These results, which are interpreted through the lens of a simple theoretical model, have important implications for a host of issues, including the equity and efficiency of local public goods provision, assessing who bears the burden of local taxation, and land use issues such as the location and pace of residential development and the causes of land use regulation.
Surveying the Aftermath of the Storm: Changes in Family Finances from 2007 to 2009
Authors: Bricker Jesse , Bucks Brian , Kennickell Arthur B. , Mach Traci L. , Moore Kevin B.
Published: August 2019

In 2009, the Federal Reserve Board implemented a survey of families that participated in the 2007 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) to gain detailed information on the effects of the recent recession on all types of households. Using data from the 2007-09 SCF panel, we highlight the variation in households&#x27; financial experiences by examining the distribution of changes in families&#x27; balance sheets. Further, we use information on changes in families&#x27; saving, investing, and spending behavior to consider the potential longer-term consequences of the current recession on households&#x27; finances and decisions. Most families experienced a decline in wealth between 2007 and 2009, but many families saw only small changes on net, and others saw substantial increases in their wealth. This pattern of gains and losses typically holds within demographic groups. Changes in families&#x27; wealth over the period appear to reflect changes in asset values (particularly the value of homes, stocks, and businesses) rather than changes in the level of ownership of assets and debts or in the amount of debt held. On the whole, families appear more cautious in 2009 than in 2007, as most families reported greater desired buffer savings, and many expressed concern over future income and employment.
Financial Capital and the Macroeconomy: A Quantitative Framework
Authors: Kiley Michael T. , Sim Jae W.
Published: August 2019

Financial intermediation transforms short-term liquid assets into long-term capital assets. As a result, risk taking, in the form of long-term commitments despite unresolved short-term funding risk, is an essential element of intermediation. If such funding risk must be addressed by costly recapitalization and/or distressed asset sales due to capital market frictions, an increase in uncertainty can cause a disruption in the intermediation process by forcing risk-neutral intermediaries to behave in a risk-averse manner. Our analysis examines this behavior theoretically and empirically. We first develop a dynamic macroeconomic model in which the balance sheet/liquidity condition of financial intermediaries plays an important role in the determination of asset prices and economic activity under time-varying uncertainty. Second, we present new evidence on the importance of uncertainty facing financial intermediaries for credit terms and volume and for aggregate economic activity, thereby partially quantifying the significance of capital market frictions. We adopt a structural identification strategy in which the predictions of our theory, in the form of sign restrictions, play an important role.
Credit Availability and the Collapse of the Banking Sector in the 1930s
Authors: Carlson Mark A. , Rose Jonathan Derek
Published: August 2019

This paper examines the mechanism through which banking sector distress affects the availability of credit. We use the experience of the United States during the Great Depression, a period of intense bank distress, to conduct our analysis. We utilize previously neglected data from a 1934 survey conducted by the Federal Reserve System of both banks and Chambers of Commerce regarding the availability of credit, and examine which aspects of the banking system collapse affected credit availability as indicated by the survey. A number of scholars have posited different ways that bank distress constrained credit availability and impacted economic activity during the 1930s however, the empirical evidence regarding these channels is modest. In this study, we find that bank failures had the most dominant impact, but there is also some evidence for the importance of funding constraints from deposit outflows and of protracted deposit liquidation.
Plant-Level Responses to Antidumping Duties: Evidence from U.S. Manufacturers
Authors: Pierce Justin R.
Published: August 2019

This paper describes the effects of a temporary increase in tariffs on the performance and behavior of U.S. manufacturers. Using a dataset that includes the full population of U.S. manufacturing plants, I show that an apparent positive correlation between antidumping duties and traditional revenue productivity is likely misleading. For the subset of plants reporting quantity-based output data, increases in prices and markups artificially inflate the effect of antidumping duties on revenue productivity, while physical productivity actually falls. Moreover, antidumping duties allow low-productivity plants to continue producing protected products, slowing the reallocation of resources from less productive to more productive uses.
Measuring the Level and Uncertainty of Trend Inflation
Authors: Mertens Elmar
Published: August 2019

Firmly-anchored inflation expectations are widely viewed as playing a central role in the successful conduct of monetary policy. This paper presents estimates of trend inflation, based on information contained in survey expectations, the term structure of interest rates, and realized inflation rates. My application combines a variety of data sources at the monthly frequency and it can flexibly handle missing data arising from infrequent observations and limited data availability. In order to assess whether inflation expectations are anchored, uncertainty surrounding future changes in trend inflation--measured by a time-varying volatility of trend shocks--is estimated as well. Not surprisingly, the estimates suggest that trend inflation in the U.S. rose and fell again over the 1970s and 1980s, accompanied by increases in uncertainty. Considering the recent crisis, full-sample estimates of trend inflation fell quite a bit, but not too dramatically. In contrast, real-time estimates recorded sizeable increases of trend uncertainty during the crisis of 2007/2008, which have abated since then.
How do Joint Supervisors Examine Financial Institutions?: The Case of State Banks
Authors: Rezende Marcelo
Published: August 2019

This paper studies what determines whether federal and state supervisors examine state banks independently or together. The results suggest that supervisors coordinate examinations in order to support states with lower budgets and capabilities and more banks to supervise. I find that states with larger budgets examine more banks independently, that they accommodate changes in the number of banks mostly through the number of examinations with a federal supervisor and that, when examining banks together, state banking departments that have earned quality accreditation are more likely to write conclusion reports separately from federal supervisors. The results also indicate that regulation impacts supervision by changing the characteristics of banks. Independent examinations decrease with branch deregulation, which is consistent with the facts that this reform consolidated banks within fewer independent firms and that state and federal supervisors are more likely to examine large and complex institutions together.