bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Amplification of obliquity forcing through mean-annual and seasonal atmospheric feedbacks
Authors: Lee S.-Y. , Poulsen C. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Pleistocene benthic δ18O records exhibit strong spectral power at ~41 kyr, indicating that global ice volume has been modulated by Earth's axial tilt. This feature, and weak spectral power in the precessional band, has been attributed to the influence of obliquity on mean-annual and seasonal insolation gradients at high latitudes. In this study, we use a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model to quantify changes in continental snowfall associated with mean-annual and seasonal insolation forcing due to a change in obliquity. Our model results indicate that insolation changes associated with a decrease in obliquity amplify continental snowfall in two ways: (1) An increase in high-latitude winter insolation is enhanced through a low-cloud feedback, resulting in colder air temperatures and increased snow precipitation. (2) An increase in the summer insolation gradient enhances summer eddy activity, increasing vapor transport to high-latitude regions. In our experiments, a decrease in obliquity leads to an annual snowfall increase of 25.0 cm; just over one-half of this response (14.1 cm) is attributed to seasonal changes in insolation. Our results indicate that the role of insolation gradients is important in amplifying the relatively weak insolation forcing due to a change in obliquity. Nonetheless, the total snowfall response to obliquity is similar to that due to a shift in Earth's precession, suggesting that obliquity forcing alone can not account for the spectral characteristics of the ice-volume record.
Variability of summer precipitation over eastern China during the last millennium
Authors: Shen C. , Wang W.-C. , Peng Y. , Xu Y. , Zheng J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We use measurements of recent decades, 1500-yr proxy data, and millennium model simulations with a variety of climate facings to study the temporal and spatial variability of summer precipitation over eastern China. Spectral analysis of the proxy data using multi-taper method reveals three statistically significant bidecadal (15–35-yr), pendadecadal (40–60-yr), and centennial (65–170-yr) oscillation bands. The results of wavelet filtering show that the amplitudes of these bands vary substantially through time depending on the temperature regimes. Weak centennial oscillation and strong pentadecadal oscillation occur in warm conditions, whereas the oscillations are both strong in cold conditions. A model/data intercomparison suggests that the centennial oscillation might be linked to the fluctuation of solar forcing (Gleissberg cycle), and the pentadecadal and bidecadal oscillations could be associated with internal variability of the climate system. It is also found that the increased frequency of drought-in-north/flood-in-south spatial pattern over eastern China during the last two decades is unusual in the past five centuries.
Forced and internal modes of variability of the East Asian summer monsoon
Authors: Liu J. , Wang B. , Yang J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The modern instrumental record (1979–2006) is analyzed in an attempt to reveal the dynamical structure and origins of the major modes of interannual variability of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and to elucidate their fundamental differences with the major modes of seasonal variability. These differences are instrumental in understanding of the forced (say orbital) and internal (say interannual) modes of variability in EASM. We show that the leading mode of interannual variation, which accounts for about 39% of the total variance, is primarily associated with decaying phases of major El Nino, whereas the second mode, which accounts for 11.3% of the total variance, is associated with the developing phase of El Nino/La Nina. The EASM responds to ENSO in a nonlinear fashion with regard to the developing and decay phases of El Nino. The two modes are determined by El Nino/La Nina forcing and monsoon-warm ocean interaction, or essentially driven by internal feedback processes within the coupled climate system. For this internal mode, the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and subtropical EASM precipitations exhibit an out-of-phase variations; further, the Meiyu in Yangtze River Valley is also out-of-phase with the precipitation in the central North China. In contrast, the slow and fast annual cycles forced by the solar radiation show an in-phase correlation between the ITCZ and subtropical EASM precipitation. Further, the seasonal march of precipitation displays a continental-scale northward advance of a rain band (that tilts in a southwest-northeastward direction) over the entire Indian and East Asian summer monsoon from mid-May toward the end of July. This uniformity in seasonal advance suggests that the position of the northern edge of the summer monsoon or the precipitation over the central North China may be an adequate measure of the monsoon intensity for the forced mode, while the intensity of the internal mode of EASM variability should measured by the intensity of Meiyu. Given the fact that the annual modes share the similar external forcing with orbital variability, the results presented here may help to understand the differences in the EASM variability on the interannual and orbital time scales.
Can we reconstruct Arctic sea ice back to 1900 with a hybrid approach?
Authors: Brönnimann S. , Lehmann T. , Griesser T. , Ewen T. , Grant A. N. , Bleisch R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The variability and trend of Arctic sea ice since the mid 1970s is well documented and linked to rising temperatures. However, much less is known for the first half of the 20th century, when the Arctic also underwent a period of strong warming. For studying this period in atmospheric models, gridded sea ice data are needed as boundary conditions. Current data sets (e.g., HadISST) provide a historical climatology, but may not be suitable when interannual-to-decadal variability is important, as they are interpolated and relaxed towards a (historical) climatology to fill in gaps, particularly in winter. Regional historical sea ice information exhibits considerable variability on interannnual-to-decadal scales, but is only available for summer and not in gridded form. Combining the advantages of both types of information could be used to constrain model simulations in a more realistic way. Here we discuss the feasibility of reconstructing year-round gridded Arctic sea ice from 1900 to 1953 from historical information and a coupled climate model. We decompose sea ice variability into centennial (due to climate forcings), decadal (coupled processes in the ocean-sea ice system) and interannual time scales (atmospheric circulation). The three time scales are represented by a historical climatology from HadISST (centennial), a closest analogue approach using the coupled control run of the CCSM-3.0 model (decadal), and a statistical reconstruction based on high-pass filtered data (interannual variability), respectively. Results show that differences in the model climatology, the length of the control run, and inconsistent historical data strongly limit the quality of the product. However, with more realistic and longer simulations becoming available in the future as well as with improved historical data, useful reconstructions are possible. We suggest that hybrid approaches, using both statistical reconstruction methods and numerical models, may find wider applications in the future.
Modelling Maastrichtian climate: investigating the role of geography, atmospheric CO2 and vegetation
Authors: Hunter S. J. , Valdes P. J. , Haywood A. M. , Markwick P. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper we describe the results from an ensemble of palaeoclimate simulations of the Maastrichtian using the fully-coupled dynamic ocean-atmosphere General Circulation Model, HadCM3L. Using appropriate Maastrichtian boundary conditions, we investigate the sensitivity of the predicted palaeoclimate to changing atmospheric CO2 levels and modelled vegetation treatment. In addition, we explore the climatic response to the changed geography using a comparison with a pre-industrial experiment. We describe our results alongside the findings of previous modelling studies in particular with consideration to concepts of climate equability. Our findings demonstrate increased global temperatures compared with the pre-industrial experiment, with a 5.9°C increase in temperatures associated with the change to 1×CO2 Maastrichtian conditions and a further 3.9°C warming associated with a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2 levels. Compared to the pre-industrial we find a latitudinal temperature profile that is reduced in gradient and shifted to higher temperatures. Our control 4×CO Maastrichtian experiment exceeds the pre-industrial by 6.5–8.6°C, 7.4–11.2°C, and 10.1–32.4°C in the equatorial, mid and high latitudes respectively. We also find a general pattern of increased thermal seasonality in the high latitudes. In terms of global mean annual temperatures we find a range of 18.1–23.6°C for our 1–6×atmospheric CO2 envelope. Other than in the northern high latitudes we find satisfactory levels of agreement between the ensemble temperature envelope and estimates from palaeotemperature proxies. The inclusion of a dynamic vegetation model (TRIFFID) leads to a further increase in the thermal seasonality at high latitudes, warming in the mid to high latitudes and increased precipitation in the low and mid latitudes.
Quantifying the roles of ocean circulation and biogeochemistry in governing ocean carbon-13 and atmospheric carbon dioxide at the last glacial maximum
Authors: Tagliabue A. , Bopp L. , Roche D. M. , Bouttes N. , Dutay J.-C. , Alkama R. , Kageyama M. , Michel E. , Paillard D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We use a state-of-the-art ocean general circulation and biogeochemistry model to examine the impact of changes in ocean circulation and biogeochemistry in governing the change in ocean carbon-13 and atmospheric CO2 at the last glacial maximum (LGM). We examine 5 different realisations of the ocean's overturning circulation produced by a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean model under LGM forcing and suggested changes in the atmospheric deposition of iron and phytoplankton physiology at the LGM. Measured changes in carbon-13 and carbon-14, as well as a qualitative reconstruction of the change in ocean carbon export are used to evaluate the results. Overall, we find that while a reduction in ocean ventilation at the LGM is necessary to reproduce carbon-13 and carbon-14 observations, this circulation results in a low net sink for atmospheric CO2. In contrast, while biogeochemical processes contribute little to carbon isotopes, we can attribute over 90% of the change in atmospheric CO2 to such factors. The lesser role for circulation means that when all plausible factors are accounted for, over half of the necessary CO2 change remains to be explained. This presents a serious challenge to our understanding of the mechanisms behind changes in the global carbon cycle during the geologic past.
A reconstruction of Atlantic Central African biomes and forest succession stages derived from modern pollen data and plant functional types
Authors: Lebamba J. , Ngomanda A. , Vincens A. , Jolly D. , Favier C. , Elenga H. , Bentaleb I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. New detailed vegetation reconstructions are proposed in Atlantic Central Africa from a modern pollen data set derived from 199 sites (Cameroon, Gabon and Congo) including 131 new sites. In this study, the concept of plant functional classification is improved with new and more detailed plant functional types (PFTs) and new aggregations of pollen taxa. Using the biomisation method, we reconstructed (1) modern potential biomes and (2) potential succession stages of forest regeneration, a new approach in Atlantic Central African vegetation dynamics and ecosystem functioning reconstruction. When compared to local vegetation, potential biomes are correctly reconstructed (97.5% of the sites) and tropical evergreen to semi-evergreen forest (TRFO biome) is well identified from semi-deciduous forest (TSFO biome). When the potential biomes are superimposed on the White's vegetation map, only 76.4% of the sites are correctly reconstructed. But using botanical data, correspondence and cluster analyses, the 43 sites from Congo (Mayombe) evidence more affinities with those of central Gabon and so they can also be considered as correctly reconstructed as TRFO biome and White's map must be revised. In terms of potential succession stages of forest regeneration, the mature forest (TMFO) is well differentiated from the secondary forest (TSFE), but inside this latter group, the young and the pioneer stages are not clearly identified due probably to their low sampling representation. Moreover, linked to their progressive and mosaic character, the boundaries between two forest biomes or two forest stages are not clearly detected and need also a more intensive sampling in such transitions.
Stable isotope records for the last 10 000 years from Okshola cave (Fauske, northern Norway), and regional comparisons
Authors: Linge H. , Lauritzen S.-E. , Andersson C. , Hansen J. K. , Skoglund R. Ø. , Sundqvist H. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The sensitivity of terrestrial environments to past changes in heat transport is expected to be manifested in Holocene climate proxy records on millennial to seasonal timescales. Stalagmite formation in the Okshola cave near Fauske (northern Norway) began at about 10.4 ka, soon after the valley was deglaciated. Past monitoring of the cave and surface has revealed stable modern conditions with uniform drip rates, relative humidity and temperature. Stable isotope records from two stalagmites provide time-series spanning from ca. 10 380 yr to AD 1997; a banded, multi-coloured stalagmite (Oks82) was formed between 10 380 yr and 5050 yr, whereas a pristine, white stalagmite (FM3) covers the period from ~7500 yr to the present. The stable oxygen isotope (δ18Oc), stable carbon isotope (δ13Cc), and growth rate records are interpreted as showing i) a negative correlation between cave/surface temperature and δ18Oc, ii) a positive correlation between wetness and δ13Cc, and iii) a positive correlation between temperature and growth rate. Following this, the data from Okshola show that the Holocene was characterised by high-variability climate in the early part, low-variability climate in the middle part, and high-variability climate and shifts between two distinct modes in the late part. A total of nine Scandinavian stalagmite δ18Oc records of comparable dating precision are now available for parts or most of the Holocene. None of them show a clear Holocene thermal optimum, suggesting that they are influenced by annual mean temperature (cave temperature) rather than seasonal temperature. For the last 1000 yr, δ18Oc display a depletion-enrichment-depletion pattern commonly interpreted as reflecting the conventional view on climate development for the last millennium. Although the δ18Oc records show similar patterns and amplitudes of change, the main challenges for utilising high-latitude stalagmites as palaeoclimate archives are i) the accuracy of the age models, ii) the ambiguity of the proxy signals, and iii) calibration with monitoring data.
Abrupt climate changes of the last deglaciation detected in a western Mediterranean forest record
Authors: Fletcher W. J. , Sanchez Goñi M. F. , Peyron O. , Dormoy I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Evidence for abrupt changes in western Mediterranean climate between 20 and 6 cal ka BP is examined in marine core MD95-2043 (Alborán Sea), using pollen data for temperate Mediterranean forest development and pollen-based climate reconstructions using the modern analogue technique (MAT) for annual precipitation (Pann) and mean temperatures of the coldest and warmest months (MTCO and MTWA). Major climatic shifts with parallel temperature and precipitation changes occurred at the onsets of Heinrich Event 1 (equivalent to the Oldest Dryas), the Bölling-Allerød (BA), and the Younger Dryas (YD). Multi-centennial-scale oscillations in forest development related to regional precipitation (Pann) variability occurred throughout the BA, YD, and early Holocene, with drier atmospheric conditions in phase with Lateglacial events of high-latitude cooling including GI-1d (Older Dryas), GI-1b (Intra-Allerød Cold Period) and GS-1 (YD), and during Holocene events associated with high-latitude cooling, meltwater pulses and N. Atlantic ice-rafting (events at 11.4, 10.1, 9.3, 8.2 and 7.4 cal ka BP). The forest record also indicates multi-centennial variability within the YD interval and multiple Preboreal climate oscillations. A possible climatic mechanism for the recurrence of dry intervals and an opposed regional precipitation pattern with respect to western-central Europe relates to the dynamics of the jet stream and the prevalence of atmospheric blocking highs. Comparison of radiocarbon and ice-core ages for well-defined climatic transitions in the forest record suggests possible enhancement of marine reservoir ages in the Alborán Sea by ~200 years (surface water age ~600 years) during the Lateglacial.
Post-depositional changes in snow isotope content: preliminary results of laboratory experiments
Authors: Ekaykin A. A. , Hondoh T. , Lipenkov V. Y. , Miyamoto A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Isotopic content of the snow and firn thickness is assumed to be altered significantly due to the post-depositional (PD) mass- and isotope exchange with the atmospheric water vapor. If so, these effects should be accounted for in the ice core-based isotope-temperature paleo-reconstructions. In order to study the intensity of the PD processes we set up a series of laboratory experiments. In this paper we describe in detail the experimental technique and briefly overview preliminary results. It is shown that the PD modifications in the upper layer of snow thickness are noticeably strong even under such a low temperature as −35°C (the value typical for the Central Antarctic summer). It is demonstrated that the PD isotopic changes in snow can be approximated as a linear function of the relative mass loss due to snow sublimation. Possible applications for improving the isotope-temperature paleo-reconstructions are shortly discussed.
AMO-like variations of holocene sea surface temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean
Authors: Feng S. , Hu Q. , Oglesby R. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Instrumental records of the North Atlantic sea surface temperatures (SST) show a significant 60–80 year cycle, referred to as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). During AMO warm (cold) phases, SST over the entire North Atlantic Ocean is dominated by basin-wide positive (negative) anomalies. We analyzed SST variations in the North Atlantic Ocean for the last 10 ka. The long-term and centennial variations of Holocene SST in the North Atlantic demonstrate a basin-wide mode that clearly resembles the AMO signal recorded during the recent instrumental period. The long-term changes of Holocene SST were controlled by the solar insolation related to the orbital variations, and the centennial variations were closely coupled with the intensity of the thermohaline circulation. The spatial extent in the Atlantic realm of temperature anomalies around two specific time intervals, 8.2 ka and during the medieval warm period, also resemble the observed temperature anomalies associated with the AMO. These results demonstrate that the modern AMO, and centennial and longer time scale SST variations during the Holocene share a similar spatial extent in the North Atlantic, and presumably as well physical processes associated with their existence and their far-field teleconnection effects.
High resolution cyclostratigraphy of the early Eocene – new insights into the origin of the Cenozoic cooling trend
Authors: Westerhold T. , Röhl U.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Here we present a high-resolution cyclostratigraphy based on X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning data from a new record retrieved from the tropical western Atlantic (Demerara Rise, ODP Leg 207, Site 1258). The Eocene sediments from ODP Site 1258 cover magnetochrons C20 to C24 and show well developed cycles. This record includes the missing interval for reevaluating the early Eocene part of the Geomagnetic Polarity Time Scale (GPTS), also providing key aspects for reconstructing high-resolution climate variability during the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO). Detailed spectral analysis demonstrates that early Eocene sedimentary cycles are characterized by precession frequencies modulated by short (100 kyr) and long (405 kyr) eccentricity with a generally minor obliquity component. Counting of both the precession and eccentricity cycles results in revised estimates for the duration of magnetochrons C21r through C24n. Our cyclostratigraphic framework also corroborates that the geochronology of the Eocene Green River Formation (Wyoming, USA) is still questionable mainly due to the uncertain correlation of the "Sixth Tuff" to the GPTS. Right at the onset of the long-term Cenozoic cooling trend the dominant eccentricity-modulated precession cycles of ODP Site 1258 are interrupted by strong obliquity cycles for a period of ~800 kyr in the middle of magnetochron C22r. These distinct obliquity cycles at this low latitude site point to (1) a high-latitude driving mechanism on global climate variability from 50.1 to 49.4 Ma, and (2) seem to coincide with a significant drop in atmospheric CO2 concentration below a critical threshold between 2- and 3-times the pre-industrial level (PAL). The here newly identified orbital configuration of low eccentricity in combination with high obliquity amplitudes during this ~800-kyr period and the crossing of a critical pCO2 threshold may have led to the formation of the first ephemeral ice sheet on Antarctica as early as ~50 Ma ago.
Late Quaternary vegetation – climate feedbacks*
Authors: Claussen M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Feedbacks between vegetation and other components of the climate system are discussed with respect to their influence on climate dynamics during the late Quaternary, i.e., the last glacial – interglacial cycles. When weighting current understanding based on interpretation of palaeobotanic and palaeoclimatic evidence by numerical climate system models, a number of arguments speak in favour of vegetation dynamics being an amplifier of orbital forcing. (a) The vegetation – snow albedo feedback in synergy with the sea ice – albedo feedback tends to amplify Northern Hemisphere and global mean temperature changes. (b) Variations in the extent of the largest desert on Earth, the Sahara, appear to be amplified by biogeophysical feedback. (c) Biogeochemical feedbacks in the climate system in relation to vegetation migration are supposed to be negative on time scales of glacial cycles. However, with respect to changes in global mean temperature, they are presumably weaker than the positive biogeophysical feedbacks.
Rapid climatic variability in the west Mediterranean during the last 25 000 years from high resolution pollen data
Authors: Combourieu Nebout N. , Peyron O. , Dormoy I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. High-temporal resolution pollen record of Alboran Sea ODP Site 976 and pollen-based quantitative climate reconstruction shows that changes of Mediterranean vegetation have been clearly modulated by short and long term variability during the last 25 000 years. The western Mediterranean vegetation response appears nearly synchronous with North Atlantic variability during the last deglaciation as well as during the Holocene. High-resolution analyses of the ODP 976 pollen record allows to separate the Bölling/Alleröd period in two warm episodes that surround a cooling representative of the climatic succession of the Bölling, Older Dryas and Alleröd. A cooling trend is observed from Bölling to Alleröd. The ODP pollen record confirms that Mediterranean environments show rapid responses to the climatic fluctuations during the last termination, in particular that of all the climate oscillations associated with the successive steps of the deglaciation in the North Atlantic have been observed in the west Mediterranean region. Recurrent Holocene declines of the forest cover on the Alboran Sea borderlands indicate repetitive climate events that correlate well with several events of increased Mediterranean dryness observed on the continent and with alkenone SST showing Mediterranean Sea cooling. These events reflect clearly the response of to Mediterranean vegetation to North Atlantic Holocene cold events.
Climate reconstruction from pollen and δ13C using inverse vegetation modeling. Implication for past and future climates
Authors: Hatté C. , Rousseau D.-D. , Guiot J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. An improved inverse vegetation model has been designed to better specify both temperature and precipitation estimates from vegetation descriptions. It is based on the BIOME4 vegetation model and uses both vegetation δ13C and biome as constraints. Previous inverse models based on only one of the two proxies were already improvements over standard reconstruction methods such as the modern analog since these did not take into account some external forcings, for example CO2 concentration. This new approach makes it possible to describe a potential "isotopic niche" defined by analogy with the "climatic niche" theory. Boreal and temperate biomes simulated by BIOME4 are considered in this study. We demonstrate the impact of CO2 concentration on biome existence domains by replacing a "most likely biome" with another with increased CO2 concentration. Additionally, the climate imprint on δ13C between and within biomes is shown: the colder the biome, the lighter its potential isotopic niche; and the higher the precipitation, the lighter the δ13C. For paleoclimate purposes, previous inverse models based on either biome or δ13C did not allow informative paleoclimatic reconstructions of both precipitation and temperature. Application of the new approach to the Eemian of La Grande Pile palynological and geochemical records reduces the range in precipitation values by more than 50% reduces the range in temperatures by about 15% compared to previous inverse modeling approaches. This shows evidence of climate instabilities during Eemian period that can be correlated with independent continental and marine records.
Terrestrial climate variability and seasonality changes in the Mediterranean region between 15000 and 4000 years BP deduced from marine pollen records
Authors: Dormoy I. , Peyron O. , Combourieu-Neboutb N. , Goring S. , Kotthoff U. , Magny M. , Pross J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Pollen-based climate reconstructions were performed on two high-resolution pollen – marines cores from the Alboran and Aegean Seas in order to unravel the climatic variability in the coastal settings of the Mediterranean region between 15 000 and 4000 cal yrs BP (the Lateglacial, and early to mid-Holocene). The quantitative climate reconstructions for the Alboran and Aegean Sea records focus mainly on the reconstruction of the seasonality changes (temperatures and precipitation), a crucial parameter in the Mediterranean region. This study is based on a multi-method approach comprising 3 methods: the Modern Analogues Technique (MAT), the recent Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling/Generalized Additive Model method (NMDS/GAM) and Partial Least Squares regression (PLS). The climate signal inferred from this comparative approach confirms that cold and dry conditions prevailed in the Mediterranean region during the Heinrich event 1 and Younger Dryas periods, while temperate conditions prevailed during the Bølling/Allerød and the Holocene. Our records suggest a West/East gradient of decreasing precipitation across the Mediterranean region during the cooler Late-glacial and early Holocene periods, similar to present-day conditions. Winter precipitation was highest during warm intervals and lowest during cooling phases. Several short-lived cool intervals (i.e., Older Dryas, another oscillation after this one (GI-1c2), Gerzensee/Preboreal Oscillations, 8.2 ka event, Bond events) connected to the North Atlantic climate system are documented in the Alboran and Aegean Sea records indicating that the climate oscillations associated with the successive steps of the deglaciation in the North Atlantic area occurred in both the western and eastern Mediterranean regions. This observation confirms the presence of strong climatic linkages between the North Atlantic and Mediterranean regions.
Uncertainties in modeling CH4 emissions from northern wetlands in glacial climates: effect of hydrological model and CH4 model structure
Authors: Berrittella C. , van Huissteden J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Methane (CH4) fluxes from northern wetlands may have influenced atmospheric CH4 concentrations at climate warming phases during the 800 000 years and at present global warming. Including these CH4 fluxes in earth system models is essential to understand feedbacks between climate and atmospheric composition. Attempts to model CH4 fluxes from wetlands have been undertaken previously using various approaches. Here, we test a process-based wetland CH4 flux model (PEATLAND-VU) which includes details of soil-atmosphere CH4 transport. The model has been used to simulate CH4 emissions from continental Europe in different glacial climates and the present climate. This paper displays results on the sensitivity of modeling glacial terrestrial CH4 fluxes to basic tuning parameters of the model, to different approaches in modeling of the water table, and to model structure. For testing the model structure, PEATLAND-VU has been compared to a simpler modeling approach based on wetland primary production estimated from a vegetation model (BIOME). The tuning parameters are the CH4 production rate from labile organic carbon and its temperature sensitivity. The modelled fluxes prove comparatively insensitive to hydrology representation, and sensitive to microbial parameters and model structure. Glacial climate emissions are also highly sensitive to assumptions on the extent of ice cover and exposed seafloors. Wetland expansion on low relief exposed seafloor areas, may have compensated for a decrease of wetland area due to continental ice cover.
Relationship between Holocene climate variations over southern Greenland and eastern Baffin Island and synoptic circulation pattern
Authors: Fréchette B. , de Vernal A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Lake pollen records from southwest Greenland and eastern Baffin Island show strong regionalism in climate trends of the last 7000 years. Air temperature reconstructions from pollen indicate larger amplitude cooling in southwest Greenland (>3.0°C) than in eastern Baffin Island (<1.0°C). Such west-east gradient in climate change is consistent with paleoceanographical data that indicate decreasing temperature and/or strength of the North Atlantic Current to the east during the Holocene while the eastern Canadian margins under the Labrador Current influence display slight warming. Complementary to air and sea temperature records, the lake pollen data led to reconstruct increased cloudiness in southern Greenland, which points to increasing cyclonic activity since 7000 years west of Greenland. Together, the terrestrial and marine records of the northwest North Atlantic therefore suggest a shift from a dominant NAO+ during the early-mid Holocene to dominant NAO- in the late Holocene.
Comparison of simulated and observed vegetation for the mid-Holocene in Europe
Authors: Brewer S. , François L. , Cheddadi R. , Laurent J.-M. , Favre E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Past climates provide a testing bed for the predictive ability of general circulation models. A number of studies have been performed for periods where the climate forcings are relatively different from the present and there is a good coverage of data. For one of these periods, the mid-Holocene (6 ka before present), models and data show a good match over northern Europe, but disagree over the south, where the data show cooler summers and winters and more humid conditions. Understanding the reasons for this disagreement is important given the expected vulnerability of the region under scenarios of future change. We present here a set of different past climate scenarios and sensitivity studies with a global vegetation model in order to try and understand this disagreement. The results show that the vegetation changes can be explained by a combination of both increased precipitation, and a reduction in the length of the growing season, controlled by a reduction in winter temperatures. The matching simulated circulation patterns support the hypothesis of increased westerly flow over this region.
Solar-forced shifts of the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies during the late Holocene
Authors: Varma V. , Prange M. , Lamy F. , Merkel U. , Schulz M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) constitute an important zonal circulation that influences large-scale precipitation patterns and ocean circulation. Variations in their intensity and latitudinal position have been suggested to exert a strong influence on the CO2 budget in the Southern Ocean, thus making them a potential factor affecting the global climate. In the present study, the possible influence of solar forcing on SWW variability during the late Holocene is addressed. It is shown that a high-resolution iron record from the Chilean continental slope (41° S), which basically reflects changes in the position of the SWW, is significantly correlated with reconstructed solar activity. In addition, solar sensitivity experiments with a comprehensive global climate model (CCSM3) are carried out to study the response of SWW to solar variability. Taken together, the proxy and model results strongly suggest that centennial-scale periods of lower (higher) solar activity caused equatorward (southward) shifts of the SWW during the past 3000 years.
Influence of solar variability, CO2 and orbital forcing during the last millennium in the IPSLCM4 model
Authors: Servonnat J. , Yiou P. , Khodri M. , Swingedouw D. , Denvil S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Studying the climate of the last millennium gives the possibility to deal with a relatively well-documented climate essentially driven by natural forcings. We have performed two simulations with the IPSLCM4 climate model to evaluate the impact of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI), CO2 and orbital forcing on secular temperature variability during the preindustrial part of the last millennium. The Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature of the simulation reproduces the amplitude of the NH temperature reconstructions over the last millennium. Using a linear statistical decomposition we evaluated that TSI and CO2 have similar contributions to secular temperature variability between 1425 and 1850 AD. They generate a temperature minimum comparable to the Little Ice Age shown by the temperature reconstructions. Solar forcing explains ~80% of the NH temperature variability during the first part of the millennium (1000–1425 AD) including the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA). It is responsible for a warm period which occurs two centuries later than in the reconstructions. This mismatch implies that the secular variability during the MCA is not fully explained by the response of the model to the TSI reconstruction. With a signal-noise ratio (SNR) estimate we found that the temperature signal of the forced simulation is significantly different from internal variability over area wider than ~5.106 km2, i.e. approximately the extent of Europe. Orbital forcing plays a significant role in latitudes higher than 65° N in summer and supports the conclusions of a recent study on an Arctic temperature reconstruction over past two millennia. The forced variability represents at least half of the temperature signal on only ~30% of the surface of the globe. The study of the SNR and local impacts of the forcings suggests that individual temperature reconstructions taken from random location around the Globe are potentially weakly affected by a linear response to external forcings.
Effects of CO2, continental distribution, topography and vegetation changes on the climate at the Middle Miocene: a model study
Authors: Henrot A.-J. , François L. , Favre E. , Butzin M. , Ouberdous M. , Munhoven G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Middle Miocene was one of the last warm periods of the Neogene, culminating with the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO, approximatively 17–15 Ma). Several proxy-based reconstructions support warmer and more humid climate during the MMCO. The mechanisms responsible for the warming at MMCO and particulary the role of the atmospheric carbon dioxide CO2 are still highly debated. Here we carried out a series of sensitivity experiments with the model of intermediate complexity Planet Simulator, investigating the contributions of the absence of ice on the continents, the opening of the Central American and Eastern Tethys Seaways, the lowering of the topography on land, the effect of various atmospheric CO2 concentrations and the vegetation retroaction. Our results show that a higher than present-day CO2 concentration is necessary to generate a warmer climate at all latitudes at the Middle Miocene, in agreement with the terrestrial proxy reconstructions which suggest high atmospheric CO2 concentrations at MMCO. Nevertheless, the changes in sea-surface conditions and the lowering of the topography on land also produce significant local warming that may, locally, even be stronger than the CO2 induced temperature increases. The lowering of the topography leads to a more zonal atmospheric circulation and allows the westerly flow to continue over the lowered Plateaus at mid-latitudes. The reduced height of the Tibetan Plateau notably prevents the development of a monsoon-like circulation, whereas the reduction of elevations of the North American and European reliefs strongly increases precipitation from northwestern to eastern Europe. The changes in vegetation cover contributes to maintain and even to intensify the the warm and humid conditions produced by the other factors, suggesting that the vegetation-climate interactions could help to improve the model-data comparison.
Evaluating climate model performance with various parameter sets using observations over the last centuries
Authors: Loutre M. F. , Mouchet A. , Fichefet T. , Goosse H. , Goelzer H. , Huybrechts P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Many sources of uncertainties limit the accuracy and precision of climate projections. Here, we focus on the parameter uncertainty, i.e. the imperfect knowledge of the values of many physical parameters in a climate model. We use LOVECLIM, a global three-dimensional Earth system model of intermediate complexity and vary several parameters within their range of uncertainty. Nine climatic parameter sets and three carbon cycle parameter sets are identified. They all yield present climate simulations coherent with observations and they cover a wide range of climate responses to doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration and freshwater flux in the North Atlantic sensitivity experiments. They also simulate a large range of atmospheric CO2 concentrations in response to prescribed emissions. Climate simulations of the last millennium are performed with the 27 combinations of these parameter sets. A special attention is given to the ability of LOVECLIM to reproduce the evolution of several climate variables over the last few decades, for which observations are available. The model response, even its ocean component, is strongly dominated by the model sensitivity to an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration but much slightly by its sensitivity to freshwater flux in the North Atlantic. The whole set of parameter sets leads to a wide range of simulated climates. Although only some parameter sets yield simulations that reproduce the observed key variables of the climate system over the last decades, all of them could be used to characterise extreme climate projections.
Verification of filter efficiency of horizontal roughing filter by Weglin's design criteria and Artificial Neural Network
Authors:   Biswajit Mukhopadhay,   Mrinmoy Majumder,   Rabindra Nath Barman,   Pankaj Kumar Roy,   Asis Mazumder
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The general objective of this study is to estimate the performance of the Horizontal Roughing Filter (HRF) by using Weglin's design criteria based on 1/3–2/3 filter theory. The main objective of the present study is to validate HRF developed in the laboratory with Slow Sand Filter (SSF) as a pretreatment unit with the help of Weglin's design criteria for HRF with respect to raw water condition and neuro-genetic model developed based on the filter dataset. The results achieved from the three different models were compared to find whether the performance of the experimental HRF with SSF output conforms to the other two models which will verify the validity of the former. According to the results, the experimental setup was coherent with the neural model but incoherent with the results from Weglin's formula as lowest mean square error was observed in case of the neuro-genetic model while comparing with the values found from the experimental SSF-HRF unit. As neural models are known to learn a problem with utmost efficiency, the model verification result was taken as positive.
An innovative treatment concept for future drinking water production: fluidized ion exchange – ultrafiltration – nanofiltration – granular activated carbon filtration
Authors:   Sheng Li, Heijman S. G. J. , Verberk J. Q. J. C. , van Dijk J. C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A new treatment concept for drinking water production from surface water has been investigated on a pilot scale. The treatment concept consists of fluidized ion exchange (FIEX), ultrafiltration (UF), nanofiltration (NF), and granular activated carbon filtration (GAC). The FIEX process removed calcium and other divalent cations; the UF membrane removed particles and micro-organisms; and the NF membrane and GAC removed natural organic matter (NOM) and micro-pollutants. This study focused on the prevention of fouling of the UF and scaling of the NF and investigated the overall removal of micro-pollutants by the treatment concept. The results of the experiments showed that in 14 days of continuous operation at a flux of 65 l/h m2 the UF performance was stable with the FIEX pre-treated feed water without the aid of a coagulant. The scaling of the NF was also not observed even at 97% recovery. Different micro-pollutants were spiked in the NF feed water and their concentrations in the effluent of NF and GAC were measured. The combination of NF and GAC removed most of the micro-pollutants successfully, except for the very polar substances with a molecular weight lower than 100 Daltons.
NOM characterization and removal at six Southern African water treatment plants
Authors: Haarhoff J. , Kubare M. , Mamba B. , Krause R. , Nkambule T. , Matsebula B. , Menge J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Organic pollution is a major concern during drinking water treatment. Major challenges attributed to organic pollution include the proliferation of pathogenic micro-organisms, prevalence of toxic and physiologically disruptive organic micro-pollutants, and quality deterioration in water distribution systems. A major component of organic pollution is natural organic matter (NOM). The operational mechanisms of most unit processes are well understood. However, their interaction with NOM is still the subject of scientific research. This paper takes the form of a meta-study to capture some of the experiences with NOM monitoring and analysis at a number of Southern African Water Treatment Plants. It is written from the perspective of practical process selection, to try and coax some pointers from the available data for the design of more detailed pilot work. NOM was tracked at six water treatment plants using dissolved organic carbon (DOC) measurements. Fractionation of the DOC based on biodegradability and molecular weight distribution was done at a water treatment plant in Namibia. A third fractionation technique using ion exchange resins was used to assess the impact of ozonation on DOC. DOC measurements alone did not give much insight into NOM evolution through the treatment train. The more detailed characterization techniques showed that different unit processes preferentially remove different NOM fractions. Therefore these techniques provide better information for process design and optimisation than the DOC measurement which is routinely done during full scale operation at these water treatment plants.
Fluorescence spectroscopy as a tool for determination of organic matter removal efficiency at water treatment works
Authors: Bieroza M. Z. , Bridgeman J. , Baker A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Organic matter (OM) in drinking water treatment is a common impediment responsible for increased coagulant and disinfectant dosages, formation of carcinogenic disinfection-by products, and microbial re-growth in distribution system. The inherent heterogeneity of OM implies the utilization of advanced analytical techniques for its characterization and assessment of removal efficiency. Here, the application of simple fluorescence excitation-emission technique to OM characterization in drinking water treatment is presented. The fluorescence data of raw and clarified water was obtained from 16 drinking water treatment works. The reduction in fulvic-like fluorescence was found to significantly correlate with OM removal measured with total organic carbon (TOC). Fluorescence properties, fulvic- and tryptophan-like regions, were found to discriminate OM fractions of different removal efficiencies. The results obtained in the study show that fluorescence spectroscopy provides a rapid and accurate characterization and quantification of OM fractions and indication of their treatability in conventional water treatment.
Correlations between total cell concentration, total adenosine tri-phosphate concentration and heterotrophic plate counts during microbial monitoring of drinking water
Authors: Siebel E. , Wang Y. , Egli T. , Hammes F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The general microbial quality of drinking water is normally monitored by heterotrophic plate counts (HPC). This method has been used for more than 100 years and is recommended in drinking water guidelines. However, the HPC method is significantly handicapped because it is time-consuming and restricted to culturable bacteria. Recently, rapid and accurate detection methods have emerged, such as adenosine tri-phosphate (ATP) measurements to assess microbial activity in drinking water, and flow cytometry (FCM) to determine the total cell concentration (TCC). It is necessary and important for drinking water quality control to understand the relationships among the conventional and new methods. In the current study, all three methods were applied to 200 drinking water samples obtained from two local buildings connected to the same distribution system. Samples were taken both on normal working days and weekends, and the correlations between the different microbiological parameters were determined. The results showed that the rapid determination methods (i.e., FCM and ATP) correlated significantly (R2=0.69), but only a weak correlation (R2=0.31) was observed between the rapid methods and conventional HPC data. With respect to drinking water monitoring, both FCM and ATP measurements were confirmed to be useful and complimentary parameters for rapid assessing of drinking water microbial quality.