THE OUTLOOK ON THE TURKEY’S FOREIGN POLICY FROM DIFFERENT PARADIGMS OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS
Authors:   Institute of oriental studies, Russian academy of sciences (MOSCOW), Grafov Dmitry 
Published: November 2022

The article is attempt to evaluate the foreign policy of Turkey from the key paradigms of international relations: liberalism, constructivism, realism, neorealism and neoclassical realism. Turkish military power actively involved in Syria, Iraq, Libya, the Eastern Mediterranean, the South Caucasus with the intention to alter the existing power distribution. This may be considered as signs of the offensive realism strategy. Offensive realism asserts that states willing to use force to advance their own interests, and the survival in the international system requires to maximize power. Defensive neorealism holds that aggressive expansion collides with the interests of other states and their desire to ensure their own security in the first place. According to the balance of power theory, the expansion and maximization of power reduces the security of an offensive state by countering a coalition of balancing states. But in the case of Turkey, there are no signs of emerging a counterbalance coalition, and this is «know-how» of Erdogan’s policy. From the liberal perspective, also, there are no signs of countering of the internal and external liberal determinants (Turkish civil society, NATO’s policy, affairs with liberal allies) of Turkey’s foreign policy. The deadlock of joining Turkey to the EU and abolition of Ataturk’s secular and republican guidelines are signs of failure of liberal approach to Erdogan’s foreign policy. Turkey’s offensive policy, ignited nostalgia for the Ottoman Empire, means the inability of international institutional cooperation to overcome anarchy and power maximizing instinct. From the constructivist perspective, the social structure affects the decision- making process. And this is confirmed in Turkey. Expansionism and resentment of historical injustice towards Turkey are necessary to strengthen Erdogan’s power and legitimize it. Constructivist approach may explain the meaning Turkish, Turkic and Neo- Ottoman identities. Identities and interests mutually constitute and effect foreign- policy behavior. And Erdogan shapes identities in the state and beyond on the basis of the interests of the of the power. Neoclassical realism approach may be useful in the analysis of Turkish foreign policy too. It underlines importance of a state’s domestic arrangements, particularly decisionmakers’ perceptions. And, of course, Erdogan’s perception is crucial for foreign policy. Perceptions usually tend to follow the actual distribution of power, but in the case of Erdogan’s aggressive policy, there is a risk of misjudgment, when long-term trends are hidden behind short-term perceptions. The main emphasis of article is on attempts to determine Erdogan’s strategy and examine it from the standpoint of offensive (realism) / defensive (neoralism) approach of international relations, and evaluate its effectiveness. Erdogan has created a multipolar balancing structure of foreign relations, in which Turkish rivals restrain each other. This structure is similar to a pentahedron with Turkey in the center and its main rivals- partners on the tops. Erdogan, shifting closer to one top or another one, can effectively bargain using threats with other rivals.