bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Optical imaging of mesopelagic particles indicates deep carbon flux beneath a natural iron‐fertilized bloom in the Southern Ocean
Authors: Jouandet Marie-Paule , Trull Thomas W. , Guidi Lionel , Picheral Marc , Ebersbach Friederike , Stemmann Lars , Blain Stéphane
Published: May 2011

We recorded vertical profiles of size distributions of particles (ranging from 0.052 to several mm in equivalent spherical diameter) in the natural iron‐fertilized bloom southeast of Kerguelen Island (Southern Ocean) and in surrounding high‐nutrient, low‐chlorophyll (HNLC) waters with an Under Water Video Profiler during the Kerguelen Ocean and Plateau Compared Study cruise (Jan–Feb 2005). Total particle numerical abundance and total particle volume (TPV) in the 0–200‐m layer were respectively 3‐fold and 20‐fold higher in the bloom, and integrated TPV was correlated to integrated chlorophyll concentration. The difference persisted well into the ocean interior with a 10‐fold higher TPV at 400‐m depth beneath the natural iron‐fertilized bloom. Below 400 m, increases in TPV values at the bloom stations reflect the suspension of bottom sediments. Bloom waters had a greater proportion of large particles from the surface to 400 m and also exhibited an increase of this proportion with depth compared to HNLC waters. Multiple visits to the bloom reference Sta. A3, suggest preferential removal of large particles as the bloom declined. Comparing our particle abundance size spectra with those observed previously in polyacrylamide gel‐filled sediment traps allows us to estimate mesopelagic particle sinking rates. These results suggest that particles sink faster in the HNLC waters than beneath the bloom. The fact that sinking speeds were not a simple monotonic function of particle size and varied spatially highlights the need to go beyond parameterizations of sinking rate as a function of size alone.
Observation of atmospheric aerosols at Mt. Hua and Mt. Tai in central and east China during spring 2009 – Part 1: EC, OC and inorganic ions
Authors: Wang G. , Li J. , Cheng C. , Hu S. , Xie M. , Gao S. , Zhou B. , Dai W. , Cao J. , An Z.
Published: May 2011

Abstract. PM10 and size-segregated samples were simultaneously collected at Mt. Hua (2060 m a.s.l.) and Mt. Tai (1545 m a.s.l.) in central and east coastal China during spring, 2009 including an intensive dust storm event occurring on 24 April, and determined for EC, OC and inorganic ions. During the non-dust storm period particles, EC, OC and ions except for SO42− were 2–10 times more abundant at Mt. Tai than at Mt. Hua. SO42− (13 ± 7.1 μg m−3) at Mt. Hua was the dominant ion, followed by NO3− (5.0 ± 3.9 μg m−3), NH4+ (2.5 ± 1.3 μg m−3) and Ca2+ (1.6 ± 0.8 μg m−3). In contrast, at Mt. Tai NO3− was most abundant (20 ± 14 μg m−3), followed by SO42− (16 ± 13 μg m−3), NH4+ (12 ± 8.9 μg m−3) and Ca2+ (3.9 ± 2.1 μg m−3). The fact of NO3− exceeding over SO42− at Mt. Tai may suggest the changes in chemical composition of the atmosphere over east China due to sharply increasing vehicle emission. pH values of the water-extracts of PM10 samples indicate that at the two mountain sites aerosols transported from the south regions are more acidic than those from the north and more acidic at Mt. Tai than at Mt. Hua during the non-dust storm period. During the dust storm event particle mass, OC, Na+, K+, Mg2+ and Ca2+ at both sites increased by a factor of 1–9, while EC, NO3− and NH4+ decreased by 20–80 %. However, SO42− concentrations (13 ± 7.7 μg m−3 at Mt. Hua and 15 ± 5.6 μg m−3 at Mt. Tai, respectively) at the two sites during the episode were comparable and did not change significantly compared to those in the non-dust storm period, probably due to a similar level of free tropospheric SO2 in central and east China. Compared with those at Mt. Hua the coarse modes (>2.1 μm) of K+ and SO42− at Mt. Tai during the non-event period were more abundant and the coarse mode of NO3− was less abundant. When the dust storm was present all ions significantly moved toward coarse particles, except for NH4+, with a disappeared peak in fine mode (<2.1 μm) for NO3−. Linear regression for ion equivalents in fine particles indicates that ammonium exists in the forms of NH4NO3 and NH4HSO4 at Mt. Hua and NH4NO3 and (NH4)2SO4 at Mt. Tai during both the nonevent and the event periods. While the regression for coarse mode of Ca2+ suggests a close coupling of dust with nitrate during the nonevent time and with sulfate during the dust-storm period. pH values of the size-resolved samples further suggest that during the nonevent period most acidic particles at Mt. Hua are in the range of 0.7–1.1 μm, while those at Mt. Tai are in the range of 1.1–2.1 μm. Aerosols at both sites became alkaline during the event, but the Mt. Tai particles still showed a lower pH value.
The Brewer-Dobson circulation and total ozone from seasonal to decadal time scales
Authors: Weber M. , Dikty S. , Burrows J. P. , Garny H. , Dameris M. , Kubin A. , Abalichin J. , Langematz U.
Published: May 2011

Abstract. The effect of the winter Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC) on the seasonal and decadal evolution of total ozone in both hemispheres is investigated using satellite total ozone data and outputs from two chemistry-climate models (CCM). Combining data from both hemispheres a linear relationship between the winter cumulative extratropical 100 hPa eddy heat flux and the ozone ratio with respect to fall ozone levels exists and is statistically significant for tropical as well as polar ozone. The high correlation at high latitudes persists well into the summer months until the onset of the next winter season. The anti-correlation of the cumulative eddy heat flux with tropical ozone ratios, however, breaks down in spring as the polar vortex erodes and changes to a weak positive correlation similar to that observed at high latitudes. The inter-annual variability and decadal evolution of ozone in each hemisphere in winter, spring, and summer are therefore driven by the cumulative effect of the previous winter's meridional circulation. This compact linear relationship is also found in two different CCMs (EMAC-FUB, DLR-E39C-A) indicating that current models realistically describe the variability in stratospheric circulation and its climate effect on total ozone. Both models show a positive trend in the winter mean eddy heat flux (and winter BDC strength) in both hemispheres until year 2050, however the inter-annual variability (peak-to-peak) is two to three times larger than the mean change between 1960 and 2050. It is, therefore, possible to detect a shift in this compact linear relationship related to past and future changes in the stratospheric halogen load. A similar shift is difficult to derive from observational data since the satellite era now spanning more than thirty years is still fairly short.
Paleofires and the dynamics of carbon cycling in Chinese Loess Plateau over the last two glacial cycles
Authors: Wang X. , Ding Z. L.
Published: May 2011

Abstract. The spatio-temporal changes in trace gas emissions and burnt biomass by paleofires in Chinese Loess Plateau over the last two glacial cycles have been reconstructed using vegetation (C3/C4) specific fire emission factors and black carbon records in three loess-paleosol sections. Results show that the average mass emission rate (AMER) of total trace gases (TTG) and burnt biomass by fires (BBF) in glacial periods are 1~2 times higher than in interglacial periods, and they display a clear southward decrease during both glacial and interglacial periods. This pattern reflects the combined control on paleofire emissions by climate-induced fire regimes and succession of vegetation types. The substantial increases in TTG-AMER and BBF during the late Holocene relative to the middle-to-early Holocene at Lingtai and Weinan support existing conclusion that increased anthropogenic fire activities have occurred in Middle and Southern Plateau during late Holocene. To assess the influence of paleofires on soil carbon stocks, the ratios of BBF to above-ground net primary productivity (ANPP), estimated by magnetic susceptibility-based paleorainfall and paleotemperature reconstruction, were calculated. In the Northern Plateau, the BBF/ANPP ratios during glacial periods are nearly 90%, about 2~3 times higher than during interglacial periods, suggesting paleofires may be the overwhelming force modulating the cycling of terrestrial organic carbon in the region. However, in Middle and Southern Plateau, the large decrease in BBF/ANPP ratios to around 20% and 10% respectively during glacial and interglacial periods suggests that paleofires have had a minor impact on carbon storage in these areas during both glacial and interglacial periods.
The atmospheric chemistry box model CAABA/MECCA-3.0
Authors: Sander R. , Baumgaertner A. , Gromov S. , Harder H. , Jöckel P. , Kerkweg A. , Kubistin D. , Regelin E. , Riede H. , Sandu A. , Taraborrelli D. , Tost H. , Xie Z.-Q.
Published: May 2011

Abstract. We present version 3.0 of the atmospheric chemistry box model CAABA/MECCA. In addition to a complete update of the rate coefficients to the most recent recommendations, a number of new features have been added: chemistry in multiple aerosol size bins; automatic multiple simulations reaching steady-state conditions; Monte-Carlo simulations with randomly varied rate coefficients within their experimental uncertainties; calculations along Lagrangian trajectories; mercury chemistry; more detailed isoprene chemistry; tagging of isotopically labeled species. Further changes have been implemented to make the code more user-friendly and to facilitate the analysis of the model results. Like earlier versions, CAABA/MECCA-3.0 is a community model published under the GNU General Public License.
Estimating surface fluxes over middle and upper streams of the Heihe River Basin with ASTER imagery
Authors: Ma W. , Ma Y. , Hu Z. , Su Z. , Wang J. , Ishikawa H.
Published: May 2011

Abstract. Land surface heat fluxes are essential measures of the strengths of land-atmosphere interactions involving energy, heat and water. Correct parameterization of these fluxes in climate models is critical. Despite their importance, state-of-the-art observation techniques cannot provide representative areal averages of these fluxes comparable to the model grid. Alternative methods of estimation are thus required. These alternative approaches use (satellite) observables of the land surface conditions. In this study, the Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) algorithm was evaluated in a cold and arid environment, using land surface parameters derived from Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data. Field observations and estimates from SEBS were compared in terms of net radiation flux (Rn), soil heat flux (G0), sensible heat flux (H) and latent heat flux (λE) over a heterogeneous land surface. As a case study, this methodology was applied to the experimental area of the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (WATER) project, located on the mid-to-upstream sections of the Heihe River in northwest China. ASTER data acquired between 3 May and 4 June 2008, under clear-sky conditions were used to determine the surface fluxes. Ground-based measurements of land surface heat fluxes were compared with values derived from the ASTER data. The results show that the derived surface variables and the land surface heat fluxes furnished by SEBS in different months over the study area are in good agreement with the observed land surface status under the limited cases (some cases looks poor results). So SEBS can be used to estimate turbulent heat fluxes with acceptable accuracy in areas where there is partial vegetation cover in exceptive conditions. It is very important to perform calculations using ground-based observational data for parameterization in SEBS in the future. Nevertheless, the remote-sensing results can provide improved explanations of land surface fluxes over varying land coverage at greater spatial scales.
Estimation of surface soil moisture and roughness from multi-angular ASAR imagery in the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (WATER)
Authors: Wang S. G. , Li X. , Han X. J. , Jin R.
Published: May 2011

Abstract. Radar remote sensing has demonstrated its applicability to the retrieval of basin-scale soil moisture. The mechanism of radar backscattering from soils is complicated and strongly influenced by surface roughness. Additionally, retrieval of soil moisture using AIEM (advanced integrated equation model)-like models is a classic example of underdetermined problem due to a lack of credible known soil roughness distributions at a regional scale. Characterization of this roughness is therefore crucial for an accurate derivation of soil moisture based on backscattering models. This study aims to simultaneously obtain surface roughness parameters (standard deviation of surface height σ and correlation length cl) along with soil moisture from multi-angular ASAR images by using a two-step retrieval scheme based on the AIEM. The method firstly used a semi-empirical relationship that relates the roughness slope, Zs (Zs = σ2/cl) and the difference in backscattering coefficient (Δσ) from two ASAR images acquired with different incidence angles. Meanwhile, by using an experimental statistical relationship between σ and cl, both these parameters can be estimated. Then, the deduced roughness parameters were used for the retrieval of soil moisture in association with the AIEM. An evaluation of the proposed method was performed in an experimental area in the middle stream of the Heihe River Basin, where the Watershed Allied Telemetry Experimental Research (WATER) was taken place. It is demonstrated that the proposed method is feasible to achieve reliable estimation of soil water content. The key challenge is the presence of vegetation cover, which significantly impacts the estimates of surface roughness and soil moisture.
Flow and mixing near a glacier tongue: a pilot study
Authors: Stevens C. L. , Stewart C. L. , Robinson N. J. , Williams M. J. M. , Haskell T. G.
Published: May 2011

Abstract. A glacier tongue floating in the coastal ocean presents a significant obstacle to the local flow and so influences oceanic mixing and transport processes. Here acoustic Doppler current profiler and shear microstructure observations very near to a glacier tongue side-wall capture flow accelerations and associated mixing. Flow speeds reached around 40 cm s−1, twice that of the ambient tidal flow amplitude, and generated vertical velocity shear squared as large as 10−5 s−2. During the time of maximum flow, turbulent energy dissipation rates reached 10−5 m2 s−3, around three decades greater than local background levels. This is in keeping with estimates of the gradient Richardson Number which dropped to ~1 during maximum flow. Associated vertical diffusivities estimated from the shear microstructure results were substantial, reflecting the influence of the glacier on velocity gradients.
The Impact of Intraocular Pressure Reduction on Retrobulbar Hemodynamic Parameters in Patients with Open-Angle Glaucoma
Authors: Marjanovic Ivan , Milic Natasa , Martinez Antonio
Published: May 2011

Purpose

To assess the retrobulbar hemodynamic parameters in the ophthalmic artery (OA), central retinal artery (CRA), and short posterior ciliary arteries (PCA) after decreasing elevated intraocular pressure (IOP) in patients with open-angle glaucoma (OAG) by using color Doppler imaging.

Methods

A total of 46 eyes from 46 patients with OAG, with elevated IOP, were consecutively included in this prospective study. Peak-systolic velocity, end-diastolic velocity, and Pourcelot resistivity index were assessed in the OA, CRA, and PCA. The IOP was measured with Goldmann applanation tonometer (GAT) and the dynamic contour tonometer (DCT), 3 times respectively. Ocular pulse amplitude (OPA) appeared during the DCT measurement.

Results

After decreasing the elevated IOP, measured with both GAT and DCT, the retrobulbar parameters showed no differences as compared with baseline measurements. After Bonferroni correction (p≤0.0042, alpha/12), statistical significance appeared in retrobulbar hemodynamics only in DCT (29.3±6.4 vs 15.5±4.2 mmHg), GAT (33.0±8.3 vs 15.8±7.0 mmHg), and OPA measurements (4.1±1.3 vs 2.7±1.4 mmHg), in comparison to baseline. There was no correlation between the changes in IOP measured with either DCT or GAT and the changes in the retrobulbar hemodynamic parameters (p>0.05 for all).

Conclusions

The results of our study suggested a lack of correlation between the changes in IOP, measured with either DCT or GAT, and the changes in the retrobulbar hemodynamic parameters. The results of our study might suggest that the blood flow disturbances found in glaucoma patients are independent of the IOP.
Corneal Clarity Restoration after Descemet Stripping Automated Endothelial Keratoplasty with Edematous Corneal Graft
Authors: Kymionis George D. , Kontadakis Georgios A.
Published: May 2011

Purpose.

To report a case of a patient who underwent Descemet stripping automated endothelial keratoplasty (DSAEK) with implantation of a precut edematous corneal graft, and restored corneal clarity 3 months postoperatively.

Methods.

Case report.

Results.

A 54-year-old woman underwent DSAEK due to Fuchs endothelial dystrophy. An edematous appearance of the donor graft was unveiled upon graft preparation but the surgeon decided not to abort the procedure. The severity of graft opacity was not unveiled until implantation. During the first 2 postoperative months recipient cornea and graft continued to appear edematous. After the first 3 postoperative months the patient's cornea had restored its clarity with corrected distance visual acuity (CDVA) of 20/63. No residual graft edema was observed while 9 months postoperatively CDVA was improved to 20/32.

Conclusions.

Corneal clarity in a post-DSAEK patient with implantation of edematous graft could be restored after the first 3 postoperative months.
America’s Energy Choices
Authors: Schurr Sam H.
Published: May 2011

In trying to decide on a topic for this address I found myself wavering between a talk that would review this first, eventful year in the life of our Association as opposed to a subject which would be more substantive in nature. Substance finally won out, partly be- cause of personal preference, and partly because of the advice of others. The remarkable progress of the Association is something we are all proud of, but I believe that it has been-and will continue to be-well documented in many ways familiar to all of us. The forth- coming appearance in the near future of the Association's own professional journal will be a signal event in the unfolding story of the Association's successful development.
Comments
Authors: Swabb L.E.
Published: May 2011

Dr. Hill has given an excellent, comprehensive review of the various coal liquefaction development programs that are now in progress. In view of the limited time, I would like to comment on just one subject-the economics of coal liquefaction and the impact of the economic basis on product cost. This would appear appro- priate to the interests of this audience, as well as an important consideration when evaluating costs quoted by various sources. My comments are based on a commercial plant study design for the Exxon Donor Solvent (EDS) process made in 1975-1976 and published in an EDS project report in January 1978. This study design is now being updated, and the new coal liquids costs are probably going to change. However, the old data will serve to illustrate the point I wish to make.
The Energy Crisis and Macroeconomic Policy
Authors: Nardhaus William D.
Published: May 2011

It is hard to find an issue more confusing than energy policy. Is there a shortage of oil? Why? How long will the shortages last? Who's to blame? What will be the supply and demand response to price decontrol? What are the appropriate policy responses today? Can the president or the secretary of energy or the Congress be trusted to find the answers? And so on.
Residential Electricity Revisited
Authors: Houthakker Hendrik S.
Published: May 2011

The following is a report on various attempts to update and improve an earlier analysis of residential electricity demand (Houthakker, Verleger, and Sheehan, 1974-hereafter referred to as HVS). To understand what is new the reader should first know what has been maintained, namely: the logarithmic flow-adjustment model which estimates this year's consumption from last year's consumption, this year's price and income, and possibly (though not in HVS) from other variables, the pooling of annual time series for 48 states using the error component approach of Balestra & Nerlove, the use of a "marginal price" for electricity. The present paper may be regarded as a verification of the first of these hypotheses, and to some extent of the other two.
The Clumsy Cartel
Authors: Adelman M.A.
Published: May 2011

The recent price explosions in the world oil market result from the tardy recognition of the post-1973 consumption slowdown. Such odd results could not happen in a competitive market, but they are not at all strange in the world of the cartel. An analogy may help explain. A diver in the sea cannot go lower than the sea floor, nor higher than the water's surface. He is nearly weightless, and can float at any depth between these extremes, but the slightest impact or effort sends him up or down. Similarly, in any market, the price cannot drop below incremental cost, since such a drop would choke off supply, nor can it rise above the level that would maximize profit to a monopoly, since the monopoly would gain by putting the price back down. But in a once-competitive market, where the price has been rising toward some unknown monopoly optimum, the price can hold steady or can move drastically up or down in response to very slight impulses. In this range the price may show no response, or even a perverse response, to changes in demand. Since 1973, price response has been perverse. This was clearly the case in 1974, as the world headed into recession. It is so again in 1979. During 1973-1978, real incomes in the non-Communist indus- trialized countries rose 13 percent, but oil use nevertheless was flat at approximately 50 million barrels daily (MBD). Exports
Residential Substitution of Off-peak for Peak Electricity Usage under Time-of-Use Pricing
Authors: Caves Douglas W. , Christensen Laurits R.
Published: May 2011

This article reports on the methodology, procedures, and conclusions from the first phase of our econometric analysis of the Wisconsin Time-of-Use (TOU) Electricity Pricing Experiment.' During Phase I, which took place during the summers of 1976 and 1977, we confined our attention to assessing consumer ability and/or willingness to shift electricity usage from peak to off-peak (P/OP)
An Integrated Framework for Energy Pricing in Developing Countries
Authors: Munasinghe Mohan
Published: May 2011

In recent years, decisionmakers in an increasing number of countries have realized that energy sector investment planning and pricing should be carried out on an integrated basis, e.g., within the framework of a national energy master plan that determines energy policy, ranging from short-run supply-demand management to long-run planning. However, in practice investment planning and pricing are still carried out on an ad hoc and at best partial or subsector basis. Thus, electricity and oil subsector planning have traditionally been carried out independent of each other as well as independent of other energy subsectors. As long as energy was cheap, such partial approaches and the resulting economic losses were acceptable, but lately, with rising energy costs and changes in relative fuel prices.
An Assessment of the Effects of the Windfall Profits Tax on Crude Oil Supply
Authors: Verleger Philip K.
Published: May 2011

Most economic assessments of the recently enacted crude oil "windfall profits tax" (P. L. 96-223) have concluded that the tax will reduce the economic incentive to produce crude oil and will therefore have a negative impact on U.S. oil production.' This article disagrees with that view. Instead we show that the tax offers incentives to producers on existing properties that exceed those offered by a free market. Furthermore, based on estimates of these incentives, we conclude that the tax will1. See, for instance, Mead (1979) Wall Street Journal (1980), and Friedman (1980). Support from grants to the program on business and government relations at the School of Organization and Management at Yale University is gratefully acknowledged. Extraordinary assistance from Edward Erickson and Linda Scotten in improving the exposition of this paper is also gratefully acknowledged. The author assumes full responsibility for any errors.
The Treatment of Intermediate Materials in the Estimation of the Demand for Energy: The Case of U.S. Manufacturing, 1947-1971
Authors: Anderson Richard G.
Published: May 2011

Continuing increases in the price of energy have stimulated extensive research on energy demand and factor substitution in the U.S. economy. The manufacturing segment of the U.S. economy consumes approximately one-fourth of aggregate U.S. energy if measured by Btu consumption, and about 40 percent if measured by the Btu content of the fuel used for electric power generation (see Table 1). Hence, the manufacturing sector has been specifically targeted as a source of potential reductions in energy demand in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975, This paper was completed while the author was Assistant Professor of Economics at Michigan State University. Acknowledgment is given to Ernst Berndt, Robert Engle, Franklin Fisher. Jerry Hausman, James Johannes, Robert Pindyck, and Robert Rasche for helpful comments. The author retains responsibility for errors.
EDITOR’S NOTE: It’s Time to Think About Energy Policy Again
Authors: Gephardt Congressman Richard
Published: May 2011

Last fall marked the fifteenth anniversary of the Arab oil embargo. But judging from the attention given America's energy problems during the Reagan administration, it is almost as if it never happened. U.S. energy policy in recent years has drifted aimlessly--much as it did before 1973. As Yogi Berra" put it, "it's deja vu--all over again."
Energy End-Use Structure of an Urban Society: The Case of Singapore
Authors: Ang B. W.
Published: May 2011

Singapore, a city-state with a 1985 per capita income of USS6,250.. is a high-income developing country. The population is 2.56 million, and the population density of 4,150 per square kilometer is one of the highest in the world. The climate is equatorial. Singapore's energy end-use structure is interesting because the economy is at a transitional stage from a developing to an industrial one. A study of its changing energy use pattern may indicate possible future developments in urban energy use in other countries at a similar stage. The sectoral consumption breakdown is shown in Table 1, which refers to Singapore's internal energy demand balance.' The sectoral use breakdown is transportation 22 percent, industry 18 percent, domestic 6 percent, commercial and public sector uses. 10 percent, and energy sector 44 percent. If the consumption in the energy sector is allocated among the four final demand sectors. The breakdown would be transportation 22 percent, industry 35 percent, domestic 14 percent, and commercial and public 29 percent.
Energy Savings from More Efficient Appliances: A Rejoinder
Authors: Daniel J. Khazzoom
Published: May 2011

In his article (Lovins, 1988) responding to my Note (Khazzoom, 1987), Amory Lovins makes a series of allegations. I find they contain precious little substance. Space limitations preclude a response to each one of Lovins' points, but I will address some of the specifics. The following overall observations convey perhaps in a nutshell some of the difficulties with the article that emerge from the discussion of the specifics below: (i) The article makes statements about facts, which are not supported by the evidence; (ii) The article holds contradictory positions and makes inconsistent statements, with little or no effort at probing into their implications; (iii) A depressing aspect of the article that the serious reader has to contend with is the lack of command of the basics of economics the article reveals. There is rattling with economic terminology and there are grand-sounding statements about economics, but it is not clear the author knows quite what they all mean. I turn to these below. But I would like to clarify the procedure 1 will be following. Lovins' article is substantially made up of quotes from the unpublished work by the National Resources Defense Council. In preparing the present rejoinder, I have made the assumption that since Lovins used the quotes to elaborate on points that he made (often in two lines or less), the statements he quoted say what he would have said, had he written the elaboration in his own words. I hope this clarification will spare any future counterarguments that Lovins did not make these statements, but only quoted them.
Is American Energy Politics Ideological?
Authors: Uslaner Eric M.
Published: May 2011

When we think of energy issues, we generally conjure up ideas of conflicts between producers and consumers. These translate into visions of grand ideological conflicts between the left and the right. Wildavsky and Tennenbaum (1981) speak of battles between "preservationists" and "industrialists." Kalt (1981) argues that "[tihe domestic energy 'crisis' is, far more than anything else, a quarrel over income distribution." Ideological straight fights are marked by a single dimension of conflict. In particular, ideological politics, as opposed to religious or ethnic cleavages, suggests a battle between left and right--or, producers and consumers in the case of energy battles. When there are only two contestants, one is sure to win if the group decision is made by majority rule. Even in the United States Congress, where complex rules often frustrate coherent policy formation, strongly-held positions can prevail over obstructionists if they are determined enough. Yet, during the 1970s many attempts to form a "national energy policy" failed. In the 1980s Congress again stumbled in making natural gas policy as it defeated both decontrol and recontrol proposals.
Pareto Dominance Through Self-Selecting Tariffs: The Case of TOU Electricity Rates for Agricultural Customers
Authors: Train Kenneth E. , Toyama Nate
Published: May 2011

We estimate the impact of a voluntary time-of-use (TOU) rale option for electricity used in agricultural pumping. We find that offering the TOU tariff in addition to standard, non-TOU rates increases the profits of the electric utility and Pareto dominates the offering of standard rates alone. The analysis provides an example of the fact that Pareto improvements can be obtained by Judiciously expanding the set of self-selecting tariffs offered by a public utility.
Short Papers, Notes, and Comments The Incidence of Welfare Losses Due to Appliance Efficiency Standards
Authors: Morss Mark F.
Published: May 2011

The effect of appliance efficiency standards upon household energy consumption has recently occupied the attention of energy economists: Khazzoom (1987), Bold (1987), Lovins (1988), and Henly et al. (1988). This paper is concerned with the equally important question of the effects of such standards upon household welfare. It is shown that the households most likely to prefer less efficient appliances, and therefore to suffer welfare losses when standards are imposed, are those with low levels of appliance usage- This in conjunction with the results of empirical studies of appliance electricity demand makes it possible to characterize the affected households. An important result developed here is that the direction of given effects upon the demand for appliance efficiency may be deduced from the direction of the corresponding effects upon appliance electricity consumption.
Principles of Petroleum — Then and Now
Authors: Frankel Paul J.
Published: May 2011

My decision to withdraw from the oil scene, of which I have been part for well over sixty years, provides the opportunity to review the basic points of the theory which I formulated in my first book - Essentials of Petroleum - published some forty years ago. While I am at it, I should endeavor to scrutinize the degree to which these findings have retained some validity - if any.
Optimal Structure of the Nigerian Energy Supply Mix
Authors: Adegbulugbe Anthony O. , Dayo Felix , Gürtler Thomas
Published: May 2011

Nigeria, a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), is blessed with relatively abundant energy resources like petrolaim, gas, coal, solar, hydropower, etc. With an estimated population of 80 million, the country also has abundant human resources. In spite of her varied human and energy resources, the performance of the Nigerian economy has been closely linked with one resource, petroleum, a situation characteristic of most OPEC member countries.
Competitive Speculative Storage and the Cost of Refinery Product Supply
Authors: Lowry Mark Newton
Published: May 2011

In a recent article in thisjournal, Charles Tiplitz (1986) presented estimates of the cost-minimizing level of seasonal distillate fuel oil inventories in the US primary sector. The costs he considered are for storage and the extra cost of operating refineries at extreme distillate yield. The "effect of price expectations" on seasonal inventories is deliberately excluded from the analysis. The Tiplitz study has interesting and useful results. However, it raises (without answering) the question of how cost-minimizing stocks differ from stocks held for price reasons. Some readers may conclude that price-responsive stocks are somehow different from or additional to cost-minimizing stocks. This interpretation runs counter to economic intuition. n the classic theory of the firm, the profit-maximizing plan for variable inputs also minimizes the variable cost of the most profitable output level. When there is an opportunity to store, supply can be accomplished through storage as well as input processing. Stocks are a variable input in the supply process. If producers are expected-profit maximizers, they should therefore manage stocks like other inputs to minimize the expected variable cost of supply.
OPEC’s Energy Policy*
Authors: Al-Chalabi Fadhil J.
Published: May 2011

Oil prices have fluctuated widely over the past few years. Today (4 July 1988) the price of North Sea Brent is less than US $14 per barrel, compared with OPEC's reference price of $18/bbl, which is based on a basket of seven crudes. This means that the price of Brent is nearly $5/bbl lower than the official selling price, if we take Nigerian Bonny Light (one of the seven crudes) as being equivalent to Brent. This is well below the average price of 1987, when OPEC was able to stabilize the market at around the targeted $18/bbl. Nevertheless, it is much higher than the price in 1986, when prices crashed below $10/bbl - and yet less than half the prevailing price in 1985. Thus, the fluctuations are very wide; much wider than anyone in the oil industry expected before 1985.
Oil Products in Latin America: The Politics of Energy Pricing
Authors: Sterner Thomas
Published: May 2011

This paper looks at the pricing of petroleum products in Latin America and compares the policies adopted in countries with different endowments and with different traditions as to state involvement in the oil industry. I find that, in contrast to the OECD countries, product prices are used extensively as instruments of policy and that in general the more oil a country has the lower are its domestic prices. They also tend to be lower in the presence of state monopolies.
An Econometric Analysis of Energy Financing
Authors: Guerard John B. , Buell Stephen G.
Published: May 2011

This study examines the interdependencies of the dividend, investment, liquidity, and financing decisions of public utility firms during the 1974-1979 period and develops a multiple-criteria financial planning model of a public utility firm. The evidence on the perfect markets hypothesis that the dividend, investment, and new debt decisions of firms are interdependent is mixed. The perfect markets hypothesis is tested using a sample of public utility firms because utility firms pay very high dividends (relative to stock prices) and engage in large capital expenditures (relative to assets) compared with manufacturing firms.
The Response of Large Firms to Different Schemes of Time-of’Use Pricing When the Production Function is Quadratic
Authors: Tishler Asher
Published: May 2011

This paper constructs a model of firms’ behavior before and after the introduction of time-of-use (TOU) pricing of electricity, encompassing optimal behavior under both flat-rate and time-of-use pricing. The model aims to be consistent, constraining those parameters not affected by time-of-use pricing so that they are the same under both price schemes. However, it also accounts for the new conditions (structure) under which the firm must operate once time-of-use pricing is adopted. The results show that the optimal capital under the flat rale is identical to that under revenue-neutral TOU. Almost all the firm’s adjustments take place at the time that the time-of-use pricing is introduced, and only very few additional adjustments take place in the long run. These results contradict the widely-held belief that the firm cannot redistribute its electricity use over the day very quickly but can do so in the long run, once the capital input has adjusted to the new conditions.
The Timing of Oil and Gas Leasing on the Outer Continental Shelf: Theory and Policies
Authors: Rose Marshall , Rosenthal Donald
Published: May 2011

Our paper considers three policies in the design of offshore oil and gas lease sales that will help promote an economically efficient program of energy exploration and development on the Outer Continental Shelf. The first policy, having the government select when specific tracts should he offered for lease, involves extensive data requirements and is not practical. The other two policies-setting the royalty rate and stipu-lating a minimum bid level--require far less data and probably promote economic efficiency more effectively. The paper develops a method for calculating the economically efficient royalty rate and minimum bid level given the existing institutional structure of the U.S. offshore leasing program. A case study of the Gulf of Mexico demonstrates the approach.
Output and Energy: An International Analysis
Authors: Moroney John R.
Published: May 2011

This paper analyzes the relationship between GNP per capita and energy consumption per capita for 43 market economies during the years 1978, 1979, and 1980. Several functional forms are analyzed. Specification tests establish that a double logarithmic equation is preferable to all others. Statistical estimates further indicate a distinct pattern of diminishing real income response to greater per capita energy consumption. Advanced economies with relatively low-cost energy (Canada, Norway, the U.S.A.) exhibit practically identical per capita incomes as industrialized nations with higher-cost energy (Sweden, France, and the Federal Republic of Germany).
Fuelwood Use in Urban Areas: A Case Study of Raipur, India
Authors: Macauley M. , Naimuddin M. , Agarwal P.C. , Dunkerley J.
Published: May 2011

Concern over deforestation in developing countries has led to increased interest in fuelwood markets, particularly the major market in cooking fuels for urban populations. This case study of Raipur, India, examines the use of cooking fuels by households and small commercial users, with emphasis on the role of fuelwood. It finds that total cooking energy consumption per household (in Btus) is relatively constant over a wide range of household income. However, the composition of fuel supplies varies with income, from a low-efficiency wood-based system in poor households to a higher-efficiency LPG-based system in higher-income households. Consumers evince a strongpreferen-’e for modern fuels, supporting the general pattern of inferiority of traditional fuels and the transition to modern fuels with increasing incomes.
End-Use R &D: Technology Development Strategy for an Integrated Market
Authors: Gellings Clark W. , Harper Jerome P.
Published: May 2011

This article provides a value maximization strategy for end-use R &D planning which meets both supply-side and demand-side R &D objectives. The strategy is compatible with conventional econometric market analysis, power system demand-side management or least-cost planning methods, and operations research approaches common to manufacturing. The strategy permits incorporation of supply and demand uncertainties into the R &D planning process. It also provides a methodology for determining the optimal set of R &D investments These R &D investments will result in products that increase the value of electrical service, promote the efficient operation of electric power systems, and ensure the productivity of manufacturing operations.
Deriving Electricity Demand Elasticities from a Simulation Model
Authors: Morss M.F. , Small J.L.
Published: May 2011

The paper reports a method of estimating aggregate residential electricity demand elasticities with respect to price and household income. Short-run models of electricity use and linear probability models of equipment ownership are developed using household data. These are incorporated in a model that simulates the development of the stock of dwellings and electricity-using equipment through time to derive short and long-run price and income elasticities. Results for a wide range of equipment types are presented. Test results reveal the influence of dwelling stock dynamics on long-run aggregate elasticities that have not been reported in other studies.
Anticipating Air Conditioning’s Impact on the World’s Electricity Producers
Authors: Andrews Clinton J.
Published: May 2011

Electric power planners in developing countries have the opportunity to anticipate air conditioning-induced demand peaks, rather than merely react to them, as has happened in the United States. Demand-side management activities targeting future air conditioning installations therefore may be warranted, based on economic efficiency considerations, the U.S. experience, and worldwide trends in air conditioning usage. The feasibility of such anticipatory efforts is likely to hinge on local parameters, including domestic energy supplies, foreign exchange and capital constraints, rates of load growth, evidence of impacts on load profiles, and familiarity with demand-side planning concepts.
Comments, Repliesand Rejoinders The Perverse Effects of A Variable Oil Import Fee
Authors: Henderson David R
Published: May 2011

If the world oil market is at all monopolistic, then a variable import fee (VIF) has more perverse effects than a flat import fee on the country that imposes it. Like an import quota, a VIF makes the importing country ‘s demand for oil less elastic and increases the price paid by buyers in that country. Moreover, a VIF does not necessarily yield any tariff revenue to the country that imposes it. Finally, under very plausible conditions, a VIF may facilitate price discrimination by a monopolistic foreign producer against the country that imposes it.
VIF Mortis Est: A Rejoinder to Singer
Authors: Henderson David R.
Published: May 2011

S. Fred Singer claims that my first three cases (in which there are no foreign demanders) are hardly realistic because price discrimination is impossible. Singer is correct about the realism of these cases: foreign demanders, after all, do exist. Nevertheless these cases are important for understanding the impact of a variable import fee. The bottom line-which Singer does not apparently dispute - is that if foreign oil producers have some degree of monopoly power, then a VIF will raise not only the price paid by domestic consumers but also the price charged by foreign producers.
On Economic Policy Responses to Disruptions: A Reply to Harry Saunders
Authors: Hickman Bert G. , Huntington Hillard G. , Sweeney James L.
Published: May 2011

At its heart, Harry Saunders' Comment raises two principal criticisms I of the EMF study, "Macroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks"; The EMF study held constant the disrupted-state world oil price; effects of policy actions on the world oil price were not included. Saunders faults the EMF for not explicitly examining these effects. But further, he implies that, in estimating effects of policy actions to counter the oil shock, modelers should have held constant the disrupted-state quantity of oil consumed in the US.
Estimating the Cost of Switching Rights on Natural Gas Pipelines*
Authors: Graves Frank C. , Read James A. , Carpenter Paul R.
Published: May 2011

This paper is about the. pricing of contingent services. The immediate problem is this: What is the cost of the right to choose among pipeline and spot market purchases of natural gas? Changes in the regulation of natural gas pipelines created these rights for customers without providing a mechanism for compensating pipelines. Recently the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission recognized this oversight and called for the rights and obligations of pipelines and customers to be stated explicitly in pipeline service agreements. In the future, service agreements that provide switching rights will be sold at a premium to those that do not. This paper shows how techniques of option pricing can be used to estimate the cost of switching rights. The cost depends on the spot and forward prices of gas, the volatility of gas prices, the rate of interest, and any fees or other restrictions on switching. The option pricing framework should prove useful for pricing contingent services in other sectors of the energy industry as well.
Oil Tomorrow: Supply Conditions in the Coming Decade*
Authors: Parra Alirio A.
Published: May 2011

The events of the recent past serve to underscore the cyclical nature of the petroleum business. From the boom years of the 19?0s to the bust years of the 1980s, the oil industry has struggled to adapt to changing circumstances. The condition of stagnation and contraction masked the real long-term investment requirements of the industry and narrowed investment opportunities. All in all, the period wreaked havoc on investment budgets, the industry's most strategic component.
Forecasting the Demand for Electricity in Saudi Arabia
Authors: Al-Sahlawi Mohammed A.
Published: May 2011

Electric power in Saudi Arabia is an essential tool for modern economic development. Thus, forecasting electricity demand is vital for planning and investment purposes. In estimating future electricity demand, it is important to assure high responsibility that there will be no supply shortages. Nonparametric analysis techniques like bootstrap, the jackknife, and cross-validation are becoming increasingly popular in the estimation of probability density function of a variable or its function (see Efron (1979) and Efron and Gong (1983)).
Do Volatile Oil Prices and Consumer Adjustment Costs Justify An Additional Petroleum Tax?
Authors: Wirl Franz
Published: May 2011

A number of papers have considered different reasons for defending or refuting additional crude oil taxation directly or indirectly via an import duty. Hogan-Rahmani (1987) refer to "national security of supply" in advocating an oil import fee. This relates to another work of the authors (see Hogan-Rahmani-Jorgenson-Cooper (1988)), in which they state that energy demand (and in particular U.S. oil dependence) will dramatically rise due to prevailing low crude oil prices. An extensive discussion of this controversial issue has gone on in this journal, e.g., see Wright (1988), Singer (1988), Huntington (1988) reviewing the DOE report on Energy Security and the "American Debate" by Curlee, Tussing and Vactor (1988), Nesbitt and Choi (1988), and the defense of Broadman and Hogan (1988). Bizer and Stuart (1987) address a different aspect of an oil import fee, namely as an instrument of public finance. However, they dismiss import duties as an inefficient instrument for raising revenues.