bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Determinants of the global distribution of solar PV parks 
Authors: Bosmans Joyce , Cengic Mirza , Schipper Aafke , Gernaat David , van Vuuren Detlef , Huijbregts Mark
Published: March 2021

Suitability maps for solar photovoltaic (PV) parks are key in estimating potential supply of these resources. These maps are typically created based on expert judgement using variables such as resource availability (irradiation), topography (e.g. slope), socio-economic factors (e.g. distance to urban areas), infrastructure (e.g. distance to roads and transmission lines), land cover type, and / or ecological functions (e.g. protected areas). However, such  priori expert-based suitability maps do not necessarily match up with the actual spatial distribution of solar PV or wind parks. 

Here we aim to understand the determinants of the actual global distribution of solar PV parks by relating the locations of utility-scale solar PV parks worldwide to the above-mentioned variables. Specifically, we develop a generalized linear mixed-effects model to predict the probability of occurrence of a PV park at a certain location, based on variable values at each PV location as well as randomly selected locations where PV parks are absent. We furthermore include country as random effect to take into account inter-country differences in renewable energy policies. We then use the model to create a global 1km resolution map of the likelihood of finding a solar PV park and identify the most important determinants of their distribution. 

Finally, we compare our findings to the suitability maps currently used by the integrated assessment model IMAGE, which are based on expert judgement using land cover, ecological functions, infrastructure, socio-economic factors and topography. From this comparison and our identification of the most important determinants, we can deduce what drives geographical patterns in the actual distribution of renewable energy facilities, which can be used to improve suitability maps in future integrated assessments of the energy transition. 
Estimating Relative and Absolute Sea Level Rise at Ny-Ålesundwith satellite altimetry and in-situ observations
Authors: Vignudelli Stefano , De Biasio Francesco
Published: March 2021

Consistent and long-term satellite-based data-sets to study climate-scale variations of sea level globally and in the coastal zone are available nowadays. Two altimetry data-sets were recently produced: the first one is generated by the European Space Agency’s (ESA) Sea Level Climate Change Initiative (SL_CCI) over a grid of 0.25 x 0.25 degrees, merging and homogenizing the various available satellite altimetry missions. The second one is a climate-oriented altimeter sea level product that started in the framework of the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), and is now released as daily-means over a grid of 0.25 x 0.25 degrees, covering the global ocean since 1993 to present. Both reach in the Arctic the latitude of 81.5 N degrees. Therefore, these new altimetry products cover the coastal area surrounding Ny-Ålesund (Svalbard Islands, Norway), where a tide gauge station is active since 1976. Near the Svalbard coasts also the along track surface elevations of the CryoSat-2 mission are made available through the European Space Agency’s Grid Processing on Demand (G-POD) for Earth Observation Applications facility.

In this study, we compare sea level measurements from the Ny-Ålesund tide gauge with the climate-oriented altimeter sea level gridded products (SL_CCI and C3S) and with the along track data from the only CryoSat-2 mission. This study has three objectives: 1) to assess the performances of the gridded data moving from offshore to near coasts; 2) to explore how the synergy with along track high resolution CryoSat-2 data might help to detail the sea ice impact on the observation of relative and absolute sea level rise around Svalbard; 3) to verify if the differences between satellite altimetry and tide gauges can be used as a proxy of vertical ground movement in the study area by adopting the approaches elaborated in Vignudelli et al. [2018] and De Biasio et al. [2020] that can be validated with ground vertical displacements estimated using Global Positioning System (GPS) data from the stations close to Ny-Ålesund.

 

REFERENCES

Vignudelli, S., De Biasio, F., Scozzari, A. Zecchetto, S., and Papa, A. (2019): Sea Level Trends and Variability in the Adriatic Sea and Around Venice, Proceedings of the International Review Workshop on Satellite Altimetry Cal/Val Activities and Applications, 23-26 April 2018, Chania, Crete, Greece. DOI:10.1007/1345_2018_51

De Biasio, F.; Baldin, G.; Vignudelli, S. Revisiting Vertical Land Motion and Sea Level Trends in the Northeastern Adriatic Sea Using Satellite Altimetry and Tide Gauge Data. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2020, 8, 949. DOI:10.3390/jmse8110949
Application of spherical Slepian functions to the inversion of virtual observatory satellite magnetic data into localised regions of flow on the core-mantle boundary
Authors: Rogers Hannah , Beggan Ciaran , Whaler Kathryn
Published: March 2021

Spherical Slepian functions (or ‘Slepian functions’) are mathematical functions which can be used to decompose potential fields, as represented by spherical harmonics, into smaller regions covering part of a spherical surface. This allows a spatio-spectral trade-off between aliasing of the signal at the boundary edges while constraining it within a region of interest. While Slepian functions have previously been applied to geodetic and crustal magnetic data, this work further applies Slepian functions to flows on the core-mantle boundary. There are two main reasons for restricting flow models to certain parts of the core surface. Firstly, we have reason to believe that different dynamics operate in different parts of the core (such as under LLSVPs) while, secondly, the modelled flow is ambiguous over certain parts of the surface (when applying flow assumptions). Spherical Slepian functions retain many of the advantages of our usual flow description, concerning for example the boundary conditions it must satisfy, and allowing easy calculation of the power spectrum, although greater initial computational effort is required.

In this work, we apply Slepian functions to core flow models by directly inverting from satellite virtual observatory magnetic data into regions of interest. We successfully demonstrate the technique and current short comings by showing whole core surface flow models, flow within a chosen region, and its corresponding complement. Unwanted spatial leakage is generated at the region edges in the separated flows but to less of an extent than when using spherical Slepian functions on existing flow models. The limited spectral content we can infer for core flows is responsible for most, if not all, of this leakage. Therefore, we present ongoing investigations into the cause of this leakage, and to highlight considerations when applying Slepian functions to core surface flow modelling.
Crustal strain-rate fields estimated from GNSS data with a Bayesian approach and its correlation to seismic activity
Authors: Xiong Ziyao , Zhuang Jiancang
Published: March 2021

We proposed a new Bayesian approach to estimate continuous crustal strain-rate fields from spatially discrete displacement-rate data, based on Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, under the prior constraint on spatial flatness of the strain-rate fields. The optimal values of the hyperparameters in the model of strain-rate fields are determined by using Akaike's Bayesian Information Criterion. A methodological merit of this approach is that, by introducing a two-layer Delaunay tessellation technique, the time-consuming computation of strain rates can be omitted through the model estimation process. We applied the Bayesian approach to GNSS displacement-rate data in Mainland China and examined the correlation between the estimated strain-rate fields and seismic activity by using Molchan’s Error Diagram. The results show that the increase rate of maximum shear strain is positively correlated with the occurrence of earthquakes, indicating the strain rate can be used to augment probability earthquake models for background seismicity forecasting.
Socio-metabolic class conflicts in the Anthropocene: Developing a novel class theory based on German population data
Authors: Schuster Antonia , Otto Ilona M.
Published: March 2021

The Earth’s population of seven billion consume varying amounts of planetary resources with varying impacts on the environment.  We combine the analytical tools offered by the socio-ecological metabolism and class theory and propose a novel social stratification theory to identify the differences and hot spots in individual resource and energy use. The theory is applied to German society and we use per capita greenhouse gas emissions as a proxy for resource and energy use. We use socio-metabolic profiles of individuals from an economic, social and cultural perspective to investigate resource intensive lifestyles. The results show large disparities and inequalities in emission patterns in German society. For example, the greenhouse gas emissions in the lowest and highest emission classes can differ by a magnitude of ten. Income, education, age, gender and regional differences (FRG vs. GDR) result in distinct emission profiles. Class differentiation is also noted as economic, cultural and social factors influence individual carbon footprints. We also analyze the role of digital technologies, regarding resource and energy consumption, as a proxy for cultural capital. Highlighting inequalities within societies is a step towards downscaling carbon emission reduction targets that are key to avoid transgressing climate change planetary boundary. We discuss the results in the context of climate policy implications as well as behavioral changes that are needed to meet climate policy objectives.
Density-dependent 3D FE modelling of a recharge drain to mitigate saltwater contamination at the Venice farmland
Authors: Travaglino Maria Elisa , Teatini Pietro
Published: March 2021

Saltwater intrusion in coastal aquifers is one of the most challenging and worldwide environmental problems, severely affected by human activities and climate change. It represents a threat to the quality and sustainability of fresh groundwater resources in coastal aquifers. Saline water is the most common pollutant in fresh groundwater which can also compromise the agriculture and the economy of the affected regions. Therefore, it is necessary to develop engineering solutions to restore groundwater quality or at least to prevent further degradation of its quality.

For this purpose, the goal of the Interreg Italy – Croatia MoST (MOnitoring Sea-water intrusion in coastal aquifers and Testing pilot projects for its mitigation) project is to test possible solutions (such as underground barriers, cut-off walls, recharge wells and recharge drains) against saltwater intrusion properly supported by field characterization, laboratory experiments, monitoring of hydrological parameters, and numerical models.

This works shows the preliminary results of an ongoing modelling study carried out for a coastal farmland at Ca’ Pasqua, in the southern part of the Venice lagoon, in Italy. A three-dimensional finite-element density-dependent groundwater flow and transport model is developed to simulate the dynamics of saltwater intrusion in this lowlying area. The model is used to assess the potential effects of a recharge drain recently established at 1.5 m depth along a sandy paleochannel crossing the organic-silty area. The goal of the intervention is to mitigate the soil and groundwater salinization by spreading freshwater supplied by a nearby canal. The beneficial consequences of the recharge drain should be enhanced by the higher permeability of the paleochannel.
Influence of air temperature on a landslide some hundred meters a.s.l.
Authors: Poisel Rainer
Published: March 2021

Displacement development of slopes is influenced by many internal (e.g. strength alteration due to deformation) and external (e.g. precipitation) factors. The combination of these factors is mostly unique, so derivation of universal performance rules is difficult, and landslides mostly are individua. The contribution describes a landslide in Flysch, most probably reactivated by exceptional rainfalls as well as by works for the renewal of a weir in the valley bottom in 2009. Monitoring showed that the landslide just some hundred meters a.s.l. moves more rapidly during wintertime caused by reduced evapotranspiration as well as by slope surface freezing both leading to groundwater impounding and, therefore, acceleration of displacements. Thus, it behaves completely different from landslides in higher altitudes, which are influenced predominantly by snowmelt causing larger displacements during late spring and summer.
Temporal variability of annual suspended sediment yield estimates and their uncertainties
Authors: Slabon Aron , Hoffmann Thomas
Published: March 2021

Suspended sediment contributes to the vast majority of the annual sediment load transported by rivers to the global oceans. At the same time, this large fraction is transported just in a fraction of time. Towards achieving sustainable sediment management and healthy fluvial systems, identifying the impact of the temporal variability on annual load estimates becomes indispensable in order to reduce uncertainties.

We aim to estimate the temporal variability of suspended sediment transport and the uncertainty of annual suspended sediment loads. Our approach is based on high-resolution time series (15 min sampling interval) of discharge and suspended sediment concentration (SSC) at four monitoring stations with different degrees of discharge variability. The quantification of the variability of discharge and sediment yield is achieved through the exceedance time. The uncertainty of the annual sediment load is estimated using a bootstrap approach. We assess the impact of the sampling interval and link the optimal sampling interval to different SSC-variability. Further, the impact of rating parameters on the uncertainty of annual loads is investigated.

Our results indicate an increase in SSC-variability with decreasing discharge, leading to a negative relationship with the contributing catchment area. The 80 % exceedance times for the annual sediment load range from less than 10 % for the river Ammer (catchment area 608 km²) between 10 – 20 % for the rivers Ilz (765 km²) and Moselle (27 088 km²) to more than 40 % for the river Rhine (109 806 km²). Simultaneously, the variability increases with a decrease in sampling frequency. Our preliminary results indicate a negative exponential relationship between exceedance time and uncertainties in annual load estimates. This relationship can be used to estimate the uncertainty of annual loads estimated based on low frequency sediment sampling at the continental to global scale.
Interpreting changes in atmospheric methane using satellite and isotopic ratio measurements
Authors: Ganesan Anita
Published: March 2021

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with concentrations that are rising in the atmosphere in unexpected ways. Because of its radiative efficiency and because its lifetime in the atmosphere is only around a decade, reducing atmospheric methane concentration is a major component of most pathways designed to meet climate targets. Over the past two decades, observations indicate that there have been substantial changes in the emissions and removal of methane. Yet, years later, we still do not definitively know why methane concentrations plateaued in the 2000s, increased globally after 2007 and then continued to increase at an even faster rate after 2014. This limited understanding impacts our ability to carry out targeted emissions reductions. Here, I discuss two areas of my work in addressing gaps in our knowledge. First, I discuss how high-resolution modeling can extract information from satellite data to quantify long-term changes in emissions and the underlying drivers of these changes. I show that Brazil is a unique example where major sources such as wetlands and cattle are geographically distinct and thus satellite data can be used to examine changes from particular processes. I show how in the absence of this separation, which is the case for many other parts of world, additional information such as isotopic ratios can be used to contribute to the partitioning of methane emissions into underlying sources. I also discuss the limitations in current capability to effectively use isotopic ratio measurements. I show how field experiments and simple models can be used to derive global distributions in the isotopic signatures of major sources such as wetlands, providing more consistency against observations. I discuss how incorrect assumptions about source signature distributions have a major impact on our ability to interpret atmospheric isotopic ratio measurements and that this may be one reason why we have not been able to conclusively interpret the recent atmospheric methane record.
Focal parameter analysis of earthquakes of the S-SE of the Iberian Peninsula (1900-1923)
Authors: Fernandez Fraile Javier , Buforn Elisa , Mattesini Maurizio , Cantavella Juan Vicente
Published: March 2021

The aim of this study is to make a review, actualization and homogenization of the seismic parameters of the Seismic Catalogue of the National Seismic Network of Spain, which belongs to the National Geographic Institute. Our analysis focusses on the region that spans from 36.0 to 39.5° N and from 3.25° W to 1° E, which is a seismically very active region. The studied time period refers to earthquakes occurred between 1900 and 1923, where most information comes from macroseismic data and macroseismic effects.

The study begins by searching and collecting information from seismic bulletins and seismic catalogues, seismograms, seismic surveys, photographs, specific studies, historical newspapers and different digital archives. Then, the achieved information from all the different sources were reviewed and, whenever possible, the seismic parameters such as localization, seismic intensity and magnitude were recalculated.

The objective of this work is, from one hand, to establish the study methodology that allow to develop an overall review of all the earthquakes occurred in Spain from 1900 to date, and on the other hand, to provide good quality seismic data (improving the completeness and homogeneity of this seismic catalogue). Seismic data is important because it is used to make seismic hazard maps, studies of seismic risk, to update the seismic building standards and it is also used to make seismic characterization of the territory.
The effect of repeated sand nourishments on long-term nearshore evolution: a case study for Noordwijk aan Zee, the Netherlands
Authors: Vermeer Nienke , Ruessink Gerben , Price Timothy
Published: March 2021

Sand nourishments are carried out along numerous sandy coasts worldwide to counteract coastal erosion, with the sand added to the inter- and supratidal beach or to the subtidal nearshore profile. Since the early 1990s beach and shoreface nourishments have been carried out along the Dutch coast, with a total nourished volume of 10 to 15 Mm3/year. Although we have a reasonable understanding of how an individual nourishment temporarily affects the evolution of nearshore morphology, it is not clear how repeated nourishments influence the long-term dynamics of the nearshore zone. This understanding is crucial, not only for the safety of beachgoers or marine life, but especially in view of the expected increase in the number of nourishments and total nourishment volume given expected accelerating sea-level rise in the decades to come.

This contribution aims to analyse how repeated nourishments affect the long-term evolution of the shoreline and the two subtidal sandbars at the Dutch beach town Noordwijk aan Zee using Argus video imagery available since 1995. Between 1998 and 2014 four shoreface and three beach nourishments were carried out at the study site. The low-tide time-exposure images of the Argus station were used to determine  sandbar and shoreline position along a 6-km stretch of coast.
The results show that prior to the first nourishment the sandbars migrated seaward slowly but persistently. The repeated nourishments permanently decreased this seaward directed migration rate of the sandbars to only a few m/year. The sandbars showed alternating periods of seasonal to multi-year onshore and offshore migration superimposed on this very weak decadal offshore trend. Furthermore, the various sand nourishments gave rise to forked shoreline-sandbar morphology. This large-scale alongshore variability was undone within 1 – 2 years by switches, in which the landward part of a sandbar or the shoreline on one side of the fork realigned with the seaward part of a bar on the other side. These switches appear to be a direct consequence of the repeated nourishments. For example, the 2013-2014 sequence of a beach and a shoreface nourishment resulted in 4 bar switches within the subsequent 2 years, compared to a total of 12 switches in the total dataset of 24.8 years. Further analysis will focus on the effect of repeated nourishments on the temporal and spatial persistence of rip-channel morphology and on the wave conditions that caused the forked morphology to switch.
Toward operational flood forecasting and warning services across West Africa – recent experiences at national and regional scales
Authors: Andersson Jafet , Hamatan Mohammed , Kuller Martijn , Shuaib Addi
Published: March 2021

Flooding is a rapidly growing concern in West Africa. In 2020 alone, several hundred people died and 100 000 were displaced by the floods that occurred across the region. The floods damaged houses and crops and washed away livestock, threatening the livelihoods of millions. Niamey, the capital of Niger, experienced a record flood with the highest ever recorded water levels in nearly 100 years. Flooding is also projected to increase with climate change. One component in addressing this challenge – and a concrete way to adapt to the changing climate – is to provide operational forecasting and warning services to enable pre-emptive stakeholder action and thereby minimize damages.

Since 2018, a pre-operational flood forecasting and warning service for West Africa has been co-designed, co-developed, co-adapted, and co-operated within the FANFAR project (https://fanfar.eu/, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-7660). This study presents results from two approaches employed to assess the accuracy and utility of the service.

Firstly, representatives from hydrological services, emergency management agencies, river basin organisations, and regional expert centres in 17 countries have contributed to develop and evaluate the service. Specifically, each participating organisation was asked to test the service during the 2019 and 2020 rainy seasons, to record the most critical flood events and the extent to which FANFAR captured the location, timing, magnitude and severity of the floods. The results indicate that both the use and accuracy of the service varies substantially (e.g. from 90% correct in some countries to not even used in others). This people-centred assessment approach also provided an important opportunity to learn about the many events that occur outside of hydrometric monitoring networks, and the way in which agencies communicate flood risk information to multiple audiences for appropriate decision-making.

Secondly, we evaluated FANFAR forecasts against conventional gauge observations at key locations (e.g. Niamey). The effect of different system configurations on forecast performance was assessed (e.g. the benefit of model calibration and assimilation of gauge observations). The results likewise indicate a performance spread, and sometimes ability to capture certain features of a flood but not all. For example, for the record flood in Niamey in 2020, FANFAR managed to forecast the timing and severity level at the onset of the flood, but not the extent or long duration of the flood.

We finish off by reflecting on some challenges and opportunities for operational, scalable and reliable 24/7 weather and climate services in West Africa, with potential applicability in the global South.
Extrusion of subducted crust explains the emplacement of far-travelled ophiolites
Authors: Porkoláb Kristóf , Duretz Thibault , Yamato Philippe , Auzemery Antoine , Willingshofer Ernst
Published: March 2021

Continental subduction below oceanic plates and associated emplacement of ophiolite sheets remain enigmatic chapters in global plate tectonics. Numerous ophiolite belts on Earth exhibit a far-travelled ophiolite sheet that is separated from its oceanic root by tectonic windows exposing continental crust, which experienced subduction-related high pressure-low temperature (HP-LT) metamorphism during obduction. However, the link between continental subduction-exhumation dynamics and far-travelled ophiolite emplacement remains poorly understood. We combine data collected from ophiolite belts worldwide with thermo-mechanical simulations of continental subduction dynamics to show the causal link between the extrusion of subducted continental crust and the emplacement of far-travelled ophiolite sheets. Our results reveal that buoyancy-driven extrusion of subducted crust triggers necking and breaking of the overriding oceanic upper plate. The broken-off piece of oceanic lithosphere is then transported on top of the continent along a flat thrust segment and becomes a far-travelled ophiolite sheet separated from its root by the extruded continental crust. Our results indicate that the extrusion of the subducted continental crust and the emplacement of far-travelled ophiolite sheets are inseparable processes.
Flocculation as an Alternative to Increase the Recovery of Ultrafine Particles of Pyrite in Flotation of Tailings
Authors: Coelho Braga de Carvalho Ana Luiza , Ludovici Feliciana , Liimatainen Henrikki , Silva André Carlos , Goldmann Daniel
Published: March 2021

Nowadays, flotation is the most commonly used method for mineral concentration. However, conventional flotation circuits are not suitable for ultrafine particles, and this is a challenge for the concentration of finely disseminated minerals. Moreover, tailing contain a considerable amount of very fine particles which can include valuable and hazardous minerals that have the potential to be recovered. Concern about ultrafine particles has increased as they are present in a wide variety of mineral pulps and can contain valuable minerals that have been lost to the tailings. Several alternatives have been proposed to improve the recovery of ultrafine particles in flotation, for example, decreasing the size of the air bubbles, column flotation, selective agglomeration of particles, etc. Among all, selective polymeric flocculation represents a promising option. The current study focuses on the use of polymeric flocculation to increasing the size of pyrite particles aiming to improve its recovery in the flotation of sulfidic tailings. Flocculation was performed with pyrite particles presenting P80 < 4 mm, in aqueous medium and alkaline conditions. Two polyacrylamides and a new nanocellulose-based chemical were used as flocculants. Microflotation tests were performed, without the addition of collector, to evaluate the formation of flocs through the reduction of the mechanical entrainment of pyrite after being submitted to flocculation.
Examination of Current and Future Permafrost Dynamics Across the North American Taiga-Tundra Ecotone
Authors: Gay Bradley , Armstrong Amanda , Osmanoglu Batuhan , Montesano Paul , Ranson Kenneth , Epstein Howard
Published: March 2021

In the Arctic, the spatial distribution of boreal forest cover and soil profile transition characterizing the taiga-tundra ecological transition zone (TTE) is experiencing an alarming transformation. The SIBBORK-TTE model provides a unique opportunity to predict the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of vegetation heterogeneity, forest structure change, arctic-boreal forest interactions, and ecosystem transitions with high resolution scaling across broad domains. Within the TTE, evolving climatological and biogeochemical dynamics facilitate moisture signaling and nutrient cycle disruption, i.e. permafrost thaw and nutrient decomposition, thereby catalyzing land cover change and ecosystem instability. To demonstrate these trends, in situ ground measurements for active layer depth were collected to cross-validate below-ground-enhanced modeled simulations from 1980-2017. Shifting trends in permafrost variability (i.e. active layer depth) and seasonality were derived from model results and compared statistically to the in situ data. The SIBBORK-TTE model was then run to project future below-ground conditions utilizing CMIP6 scenarios. Upon visualization and curve-integrated analysis of the simulated freeze-thaw dynamics, the calculated performance metric associated with annual active layer depth rate of change yielded 76.19%. Future climatic conditions indicate an increase in active layer depth and shifting seasonality across the TTE. With this novel approach, spatiotemporal variation of active layer depth provides an opportunity for identifying climate and topographic drivers and forecasting permafrost variability and earth system feedback mechanisms.
The coastal salinity budget of the Southeastern Pacific Ocean
Authors: Zheng Qi , Bingham Rory
Published: March 2021

As one of the most productive ecosystems in the world, the Southeastern Pacific Ocean (SPO) coastal zone is economically important to the countries of the region. Dynamically the SPO coastal zone is influenced by the Patagonian Icefields and the large-scale circulation of the open Pacific Ocean, both of which are sensitive to climate change and modes of climate variability, particularly El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Due to a paucity of observations, however, the dynamics of this region are still poorly understood.  Here we use the coastal salinity budget as a means of investigating the dynamics of the SPO coastal zone and its relationship with the deeper ocean and Patagonian Icefields, through a combination of high-resolution ocean modelling, satellite observations, and reanalysis data. First, the long-term trends and interannual fluctuations, and their relationship to modes of climate variability are presented. Next, the salinity budget is examined, and the primary balances are quantified. We find that the salinity is primarily governed by the balance between freshwater input and horizontal advection. Finally, we assess the ability of satellite and in-situ observations and reanalysis products to diagnose SPO coastal salinity budget.
Geoethics: Recent Art Projects by Ying Kit Chan
Authors: Chan Ying Kit
Published: March 2021

As a visual artist, I have been engaging in art projects that examine environmental ethics for four decades. I propose to present two of my recent bodies of work at the EGU21 EOS4.2 Geothics Session. The titles of these two series of work are Deep Ecology and Red Alert.

Deep Ecology, developed between 2014 and 2016, is a series of multimedia artwork that examines environmental philosophy from the geocentric rather than anthropocentric world view. This body of work comprises artworks in mediums of drawing, photography, print and installation. Deep Ecology is a philosophical study based on Taoist and Buddhist ideas and addresses the moral relationship between human beings and nature.

Red Alert is a series of artwork produced between 2016 to 2000. This series of artwork critiques the increasing hazardous existence of plastic pollution in our environments. Objects in this series are all made of discarded plastic, including products such as grocery bags, household containers, packaging materials, and debris collected from riverbanks and city streets. The red color symbolizes the final warning, signaling an emergency state of our planet of unprecedented magnitude and scope.
Climate change impacts on viticulture in Italy
Authors: Massano Laura , Fosser Giorgia , Gaetani Marco
Published: March 2021

In Italy the wine industry is an economic asset representing the 8% of the annual turnover of the Food & Beverage sector, according to Unicredit Industry Book 2019. Viticulture is strongly influenced by weather and climate, and winegrowers in Europe have already experienced the impact of climate change in terms of more frequent drought periods, warmer and longer growing seasons and an increased frequency of weather extremes. These changes impact on both yield production and wine quality.

Our study aims to understand the impact of climate change on wine production, to estimate the risks associated with climate factors and to suggest appropriate adaptation measurement. The weather variables that most influence grape growth are: temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration. Starting for these variables we calculate a range of bioclimatic indices, selected following the International Organisation of Vine and Wine Guidelines (OIV), and correlate these with wine productivity data. According to the values of different indices it is possible to determine the more suitable areas for wine production, where we expect higher productivity, although the climate is not the only factor influencing yield.

Using the convection-permitting models (CPMs – 2.2 horizontal resolution) we investigate how the bioclimatic indices changed in the last 20 years, and the impact of this change on grapes productivity. We look at possible climate trends and at the variation in the frequency distribution of extreme weather events. The CPMs are likely the best available option for this kind of impact studies since they allow a better representation of surface and orography field, explicitly resolve deep convection and show an improved representation of extremes events. In our study, we compare CPMs with regional climate models (RCMs – 12 km horizontal resolution) to evaluate the possible added value of high resolution models for impact studies. To compare models' output to observation the same analysis it carried out using E-OBS dataset.

Through our impact study, we aim to provide a tool that winegrower and stakeholders involved in the wine business can use to make their activities more sustainable and more resilient to climate change.
A multi-resolution ocean simulation of the anthropogenic radiocarbon transient
Authors: Butzin Martin , Sidorenko Dmitry , Köhler Peter
Published: March 2021

We have implemented 14C and further abiotic tracers (39Ar, CFC-12, and SF6) into the state-of-the-art ocean circulation model FESOM2. Different to other global ocean circulation models, FESOM2 employs unstructured meshes with variable horizontal resolution. This approach allows for improvements in areas which are commonly poorly resolved in global ocean modelling studies such as upwelling regions, while keeping the overall computational costs still sufficiently moderate. Here, we present results of a transient simulation running from 1850-2015 CE tracing the evolution of the bomb radiocarbon pulse with a focus on the evolution of marine radiocarbon ages. In addition we explore the potential of 39Argon to complement 14C dating of marine waters.
Tensor Invariants for Gravitational Curvatures
Authors: Deng Xiao-Le , Shen Wen-Bin , Yang Meng , Ran Jiangjun
Published: March 2021

The tensor invariants (or invariants of tensors) for gravity gradient tensors (GGT, the second-order derivatives of the gravitational potential (GP)) have the advantage of not changing with the rotation of the corresponding coordinate system, which were widely applied in the study of gravity field (e.g., recovery of global gravity field, geophysical exploration, and gravity matching for navigation and positioning). With the advent of gravitational curvatures (GC, the third-order derivatives of the GP), the new definition of tensor invariants for gravitational curvatures can be proposed. In this contribution, the general expressions for the principal and main invariants of gravitational curvatures (PIGC and MIGC denoted as I and J systems) are presented. Taking the tesseroid, rectangular prism, sphere, and spherical shell as examples, the detailed expressions for the PIGC and MIGC are derived for these elemental mass bodies. Simulated numerical experiments based on these new expressions are performed compared to other gravity field parameters (e.g., GP, gravity vector (GV), GGT, GC, and tensor invariants for the GGT). Numerical results show that the PIGC and MIGC can provide additional information for the GC. Furthermore, the potential applications for the PIGC and MIGC are discussed both in spatial and spectral domains for the gravity field.
The Signature and Elimination of Sediment Reverberations on Submarine Receiver Functions: Imaging the Lithosphere of a Normal Ocean
Authors: Zhang Ziqi , Olugboji Tolulope
Published: March 2021

While the receiver function technique has been successfully applied to high-resolution imaging of sharp discontinuities within and across the lithosphere, it has been shown, however, that it suffers from severe limitations when applied to seafloor seismic recordings. This is because the water and sediment layer could strongly influence the receiver function traces, making detection and interpretation of crust and mantle layering difficult. This effect is often referred to as the singing phenomena in marine environments. Here, we show how one can silence this singing effect. We demonstrate, using analytical and synthetic waveform modeling, that this singing effect can be reversed using dereverberation filters tuned to match the elastic property of each layer. We apply the filter approach to high-quality earthquake records collected from the NoMelt seismic array deployed on normal, mature (~70 Ma) Pacific seafloor. An appropriate filter designed using the elastic properties of the underlying sediments, and obtained from prior studies, greatly improves the detection of Ps conversions generated from the moho (~8.6 km) and from a sharp discontinuity (<~ 5 km) across the lithosphere-asthenosphere transition (~72 km). Sensitivity tests show that the filter is robust to small errors in the sediment properties. Our analysis suggests that appropriately filtering out the sediment reverberations from ocean seismic data could make inferences on subsurface structure more robust. We expect that this study will enable high-resolution receiver function imaging of the base of the oceanic plate across a growing fleet of ocean bottom seismic arrays being deployed in the global oceans.
Analysis of differential residuals of SLR observations to GNSS: Methodology and results from analyzing 25 years of data
Authors: Ampatzidis Dimitrios , Thaller Daniela , Wang Lin
Published: March 2021

The SLR observations to GNSS play a significant role as space tie, and allow investigations of many quantities related to the global Terrestrial Reference Frames (TRF), e.g., satellite orbits, scale, station coordinates, local ties. The differences between the observed ranges (via SLR observations) minus the computed spatial distances (via GNSS orbits based on GNSS observations) form the so-called “SLR residuals”. The analysis of these SLR residuals offers the opportunity to investigate the biases of the SLR measurements, the quality of the GNSS orbits and the quality and consistency of station coordinates. However, the absolute residuals contain a various number of inconsistencies and systematics which are not straightforward to be identified and separated, and, therefore to be further investigated. The present study focuses on the derivation of three alternative scenarios/cases through the usage of differential residuals between epochs, satellites and stations. These differential SLR residuals are derived from the processing of 25 years of SLR observations to GNSS (using GPS and GLONASS). The advantage of using the differential residuals is the elimination of one or more sources of systematic errors, according to each scenario. The comparison between the absolute and the differential residuals, respectively, is proven to stand as a useful diagnostic tool for the assessment of the systematic effects.
Increased Socio-economic Vulnerability in the Floodplains of Brahmaputra Basin, India
Authors: Gautam Sukrati , Singh Apoorva , Dhanya Chandrika Thulaseedharan
Published: March 2021

Floods are a recurrent natural phenomenon in the Brahmaputra basin, India’s one of the major river basin. The government employed flood mitigation strategies that have mainly been focused on structural measures that involve the construction of dams, embankments, dykes, and anti-erosion structures. Consequently, the economic investments in Flood Protection Structures (FPS) have significantly increased over time. However, despite significant FPS investments, the socio-economic losses due to floods are reportedly intensifying. In this study on coupled human flood systems, our aim is to resolve this paradox through a stepwise methodology. Firstly, land use land cover (LULC) changes are investigated before and after the completion of 74 FPS units, constructed over the past two decades. The proximity to settlement used as a proxy measure of socio-economic characteristics shows a consistent land-use growth pattern. Secondly, a socio-vulnerability index (SoVI) is developed based on the population density, distance from the river, vegetation, soil type, and LULC changes. Furthermore, SoVI maps are developed by integrating the weighted maps of the above socio-economic factors. A significant increase in the socio-economic vulnerability is observed in the floodplains of Brahmaputra, possibly due to the provision of a false sense of security. This study, hence, establishes a causal relationship between the increase in social vulnerability index and the increased FPS investments. These results are expected to help the stakeholders to identify the critical characteristics that escalate the social vulnerability in the flood plains and thereby to strategize the investments in FPS.
Simulated disruptions of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
Authors: DallaSanta Kevin , Orbe Clara
Published: March 2021

The Quasi-Biennial Oscillation has exhibited remarkable stability over the observational record—until a well-documented 2015/16 disruption and an emerging disruption in 2020/21. The possibility that disruptions are more frequent in a changing climate is important to consider, as the QBO affects predictability, stratospheric composition, and surface weather. However, this possibility is challenging to assess for a variety of reasons. For instance, the 2015/16 disruption has been attributed to anomalous easterly momentum flux from extratropical waves. By comparison, the 2020/21 disruption involves anomalous westerly forcing, less likely to originate from the same mechanism.

We present a rich variety of QBO disruptions that spontaneously arise in integrations of the high-top NASA GISS Model E2.2. The disruptions loosely fall into several categories, some of which are analogous to the 2015/16 disruption and the 2020 disruption, as well as a previously undocumented possible disruption in 1988. Several factors appear to influence QBO disruptions in the model: natural variability, climate change, tropical SSTs, volcanic eruptions, and model physics/tuning. Although QBO representation is an ongoing challenge for models, the results point to a model-independent framework for assessment of disruptions.

 
Mesozoic salt tectonics in the Toulon Belt, Eastern Provence : Inversion of a salt-rich fault zone
Authors: Wicker Vincent , Ford Mary
Published: March 2021

Detailed structural and stratigraphic field mapping is used to reconstruct the Jurassic to Late Cretaceous diapiric and tectonic evolution of the Toulon Fault Zone, eastern Beausset Syncline and Toulon Belt, southern France, which represents the easternmost vestige of the Pyrenean orogen in Provence. This complex salt-rich area records a complete history from Jurassic-early Cretaceous subsidence and Aptian-Albian oblique rifting to Late Cretaceous Pyrenean-Provençal shortening. Halokinetic sequences and geometries were preserved principally on the northern flank of the Mont Caume salt diapir sourced from the Upper Triassic Keuper unit. Our field observations are best explained by a model where halokinetic activity interacted with regional deviatoric stresses from early-Jurassic to Santonian/Campanian times. Halokinetic wedges of Jurassic and Early Cretaceous carbonates thin toward the diapir, recording early salt mobilisation. Inverted relics of Apto-Albian rift depocenters are aligned along the northern margin of the Toulon Belt and the adjacent Bandol belt that lies to the west.  The Turonian-Coniacian Revest depocenter developed due to localized strong asymmetrical growth of the Mont Caume diapir. The three-dimensional form and growth of the diapir controlled lateral migration of the Revest depocenter, thickness variations, progressive unconformities, and the westward increase in stratal overturning of a flap. A component of N-S compression with related accelerated halokinetic activity can explain our observations and can be considered as the earliest expression of N-S convergence in the Provencal fold belt.  Further west, the overturned Beausset klippe can be interpreted as the remnant of a megaflap on the northern flank of the Bandol diapir. The Toulon belt salt structures are excellent field analogues to others observed in the external Alps and Pyrenees.
Forecasting agropastoral water deficits in West Africa to support food insecurity early warning
Authors: Shukla Shraddhanand , Grace Kathryn , Ali Abdou , McEvoy Daniel , Turnet William , Alkhalil Adoum , Tinni Seydou , Lona Issaka , Sanda Ibrah , Cherrington Emil A , Muench Rebekke , Husak Greg
Published: March 2021

West Africa (WA) is prone to food insecurity due to climate-, economic-, conflict-related shocks, as well as high population growth and lack of proper adaptation strategies. As per the USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network, which uses Integrated Phase Classification to classify acute food insecurity (AFI), between 2011 and early 2020, several parts of WA reported the “Stressed” phase of AFI >30% of the time. Food security and livelihood in the region relies substantially on rainfed farming and small-scale water holes. Droughts lead to water deficits resulting in adverse impacts on food production, human and livestock health and agricultural labor opportunities, leading to or worsening of food insecurity. Thus far, the focus of climate, drought outlooks and their impacts, to support food insecurity early warning in this region has mainly been on the seasonal scale (i.e., 3-6 months in future) forecasts whereas use of subseasonal scale (2-4 weeks in future) forecasts has been negligible. Recent advances in routine production (i.e. weekly) and open access to subseasonal forecasts provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve the existing climate services in the region by focusing on the impacts of subseasonal climate characteristics on food insecurity in the region. Here we report on an ongoing project with the AGRiculture HYdrology and METeorology Regional Centre (SERVIR’s WA Hub) that aims to develop a subseasonal water deficit forecasting system to support food insecurity early warning in the region. The presentation will describe  (i) the results of an ongoing analysis examining the influence of subseasonal climate characteristics (e.g. monthly climate variability, length of dry or wet spell) on food insecurity, as measures by different food insecurity indicators (such as vegetation index, food insecurity reports and household level health and malnutrition reports) and (ii) the major accomplishments towards implementation of the water deficit forecasting system, including development and evaluation of prototype products, (iii) capacity building and stakeholder engagement activities with National Meteorological and Hydrological Services across the region. 