Abstract P1-07-08: Time trends in incidence rates and survival for women with de novo metastatic lobular vs. ductal carcinoma, a population-based study
Authors: Di Meglio A , Freedman RA , Lin NU , Barry WT , Metzger-Filho O , Keating NL , Winer EP , Vaz-Luis I 
Published: May 2016

Background: Survival for metastatic breast cancer (MBC) patients (pts) has modestly improved over time. Until the early 2000's, incidence rates for invasive lobular carcinoma (ILC) had steadily risen, in contrast to the stable rates observed for invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC). Historically, ILC was deemed to have a more favorable prognosis than IDC. Nevertheless, data on recent time trends in incidence and survival of lobular vs. ductal histology among newly diagnosed MBC pts are limited.

Pts and Methods: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 9 registries, we included 10,767 pts diagnosed with de novo lobular or ductal MBC from 1990-2011, and followed through 2012. Time trends in annual age-adjusted incidence rates were analyzed, stratified by histology. Multivariable Cox regression models were fit to investigate the association of year of diagnosis and overall survival (OS) by stratum, adjusting for features presented in Table 1. We examined interactions between year of diagnosis and histology. In sensitivity analyses, we modeled year of diagnosis as categorical, and restricted the cohort to hormone-receptor positive pts.

Table 1IDC N= 9,376 (87%)ILC N= 1,391 (13%)Cohort characteristics%Age, yearsƚ &lt;407240-49151050-59232160-692327≥703240Raceƚ White7585Black1710Other/Unknown85Gradeƚ I410II3027III/IV4914Unknown1749Hormone Receptorƚ +7391-279IncidenceRates (per 100,000/year)Year of diagnosis 19901.650.1320001.540.2120112.170.34SurvivalHR of death (95% CI)*Year of diagnosis 1-year trend0.98(0.98-0.99)1.01(0.99-1.02)5-years trend0.94(0.92-0.96)1.05(0.99-1.11)p&lt;.01 for differences between groups*Adjusted for: cohort characteristics, SEER registry, and marital status

Results: 9,376 (87%) pts had IDC and 1,391 (13%) had ILC. Overall, we found a 1.4 fold increase in incidence rates for de novo MBC over the study period, (with a 1.3- and 2.6-fold increase for IDC and ILC, respectively). OS improved over the study period for the overall cohort (Hazard ratio (HR) of death=0.99; 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.98-0.99; 1% decrease/year; 5% decrease/5 years; p=.0059 for the interaction year of diagnosis-histology on OS). ILC pts had better outcomes than IDC pts (median OS=28 vs. 21 months; adjusted HR of death= 0.93; 95%CI=0.87-0.99). For IDC pts, we found a statistically significant improvement in OS over time (HR of death=0.98; 95%CI=0.98-0.99; 2% decrease/year; 6% decrease/5 years). However, we observed no significant change in survival outcomes for ILC pts (HR of death=1.01; 95%CI=0.99-1.02) (Table 1). Results from sensitivity analyses were similar.

Conclusions: From 1990-2011, incidence rates for de novo MBC increased. In this cohort, ILC pts had a better prognosis than IDC pts. Nevertheless, although we found an expected overall improvement in OS for MBC pts, this effect was restricted to IDC pts, with no significant improvement among ILC pts. Dedicated studies are warranted to understand whether our results can be confirmed in other datasets and to investigate the reasons driving this discrepancy, such as the impact of patterns of care, new drug approvals, and tumor molecular subtype.

Citation Format: Di Meglio A, Freedman RA, Lin NU, Barry WT, Metzger-Filho O, Keating NL, Winer EP, Vaz-Luis I. Time trends in incidence rates and survival for women with de novo metastatic lobular vs. ductal carcinoma, a population-based study. [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the Thirty-Eighth Annual CTRC-AACR San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium: 2015 Dec 8-12; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2016;76(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P1-07-08.