bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Transformations for Smooth Regression Models with Multiplicative Errors
Authors: Eagleson G. K. , Müller H. G.
Published: March 2003

We consider whether one should transform to estimate nonparametrically a regression curve sampled from data with a constant coefficient of variation, i.e. with multiplicative errors. Kernel-based smoothing methods are used to provide curve estimates from the data both in the original units and after transformation. Comparisons are based on the mean-squared error (MSE) or mean integrated squared error (MISE), calculated in the original units. Even when the data are generated by the simplest multiplicative error model, the asymptotically optimal MSE (or MISE) is surprisingly not always obtained by smoothing transformed data, but in many cases by directly smoothing the original data. Which method is optimal depends on both the regression curve and the distribution of the errors. Data-based procedures which could be useful in choosing between transforming and not transforming a particular data set are discussed. The results are illustrated on simulated and real data.
On an Alternative Solution to the Vector Spline Problem
Authors: Yee Thomas W.
Published: March 2003

Yee and Wild have presented additive extensions to multivariate regression models including generalized estimating equations. The back-bone of their methods was a vector spline, which was solved by direct solution. A back-fitting solution to the vector spline problem is presented here, with the implication that existing generalized additive model software can, with moderate effort, be modified to implement multivariate models.
A Class of Local Likelihood Methods and Near-Parametric Asymptotics
Authors: Eguchi Shinto , Copas John
Published: March 2003

The local maximum likelihood estimate θ^  t of a parameter in a statistical model f(x, θ) is defined by maximizing a weighted version of the likelihood function which gives more weight to observations in the neighbourhood of t. The paper studies the sense in which f(t, θ^t) is closer to the true distribution g(t) than the usual estimate f(t, θ^) is. Asymptotic results are presented for the case in which the model misspecification becomes vanishingly small as the sample size tends to ∞. In this setting, the relative entropy risk of the local method is better than that of maximum likelihood. The form of optimum weights for the local likelihood is obtained and illustrated for the normal distribution.
Estimating the Variance In Nonparametric Regression—What is a Reasonable Choice?
Authors: Dette Holger , Munk Axel , Wagner Thorsten
Published: March 2003

The exact mean-squared error (MSE) of estimators of the variance in nonparametric regression based on quadratic forms is investigated. In particular, two classes of estimators are compared: Hall, Kay and Titterington's optimal difference-based estimators and a class of ordinary difference-based estimators which generalize methods proposed by Rice and Gasser, Sroka and Jennen-Steinmetz. For small sample sizes the MSE of the first estimator is essentially increased by the magnitude of the integrated first two squared derivatives of the regression function. It is shown that in many situations ordinary difference-based estimators are more appropriate for estimating the variance, because they control the bias much better and hence have a much better overall performance. It is also demonstrated that Rice's estimator does not always behave well. Data-driven guidelines are given to select the estimator with the smallest MSE.
Parametric Regression Models for Continuous Time Removal and Recapture Studies
Authors: Lin D. Y. , Yip P. S. F.
Published: March 2003

We use a class of parametric counting process regression models that are commonly employed in the analysis of failure time data to formulate the subject-specific capture probabilities for removal and recapture studies conducted in continuous time. We estimate the regression parameters by modifying the conventional likelihood score function for left-truncated and right-censored data to accommodate an unknown population size and missing covariates on uncaptured subjects, and we subsequently estimate the population size by a martingale-based estimating function. The resultant estimators for the regression parameters and population size are consistent and asymptotically normal under appropriate regularity conditions. We assess the small sample properties of the proposed estimators through Monte Carlo simulation and we present an application to a bird banding exercise.
Asymptotic Inference for Mixture Models by Using Data-Dependent Priors
Authors: Wasserman Larry
Published: March 2003

For certain mixture models, improper priors are undesirable because they yield improper posteriors. However, proper priors may be undesirable because they require subjective input. We propose the use of specially chosen data-dependent priors. We show that, in some cases, data-dependent priors are the only priors that produce intervals with second-order correct frequentist coverage. The resulting posterior also has another interpretation: it is the product of a fixed prior and a pseudolikelihood.
Conditional Statistical Inference and Quantification of Relevance
Authors: Sundberg Rolf
Published: March 2003

We argue that it can be fruitful to take a predictive view on notions such as the precision of a point estimator and the confidence of an interval estimator in frequentist inference. This predictive approach has implications for conditional inference, because it immediately allows a quantification of the concept of relevance for conditional inference. Conditioning on an ancillary statistic makes inference more relevant in this sense, provided that the ancillary is a precision index. Not all ancillary statistics satisfy this demand. We discuss the problem of choice between alternative ancillary statistics. The approach also has implications for the best choice of variance estimator, taking account of correlations with the squared error of estimation itself. The theory is illustrated by numerous examples, many of which are classical.
Some Aspects of the Design and Analysis of Cluster Randomization Trials
Authors: Donner Allan
Published: March 2003

Trials which randomize intact social groups, or clusters, to different interventions are becoming increasingly widespread. Although statistically less efficient than trials which randomize individuals, such designs are often preferred from a practical or ethical point of view, particularly in the evaluation of health care or educational strategies. We discuss selected issues that arise in the conduct of such trials, including the choice of design, ethical implications, sample size estimation and approaches to the analysis. The discussion is closely tied to methodological issues that have arisen in a recent evaluation trial of a new antenatal care programme, as sponsored by the Special Programme of Research, Development and Research Training in Human Reproduction of the World Health Organization.
Bayesian Graphical Modelling: A Case-Study in Monitoring Health Outcomes
Authors: Spiegelhalter David J.
Published: March 2003

Bayesian graphical modelling represents the synthesis of several recent developments in applied complex modelling. After describing a moderately challenging real example, we show how graphical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods naturally provide a direct path between model specification and the computational means of making inferences on that model. These ideas are illustrated with a range of modelling issues related to our example. An appendix discusses the BUGS software.
Parametric Relative Survival Regression Using Generalized Linear Models with Application to Hodgkin’s Lymphoma
Authors: Weller Edie A. , Feuer Eric J. , Frey Carolin M. , Wesley Margaret N.
Published: March 2003

Changes in survival rates during 1940–1992 for patients with Hodgkin’s disease are studied by using population-based data. The aim of the analysis is to identify when the breakthrough in clinical trials of chemotherapy treatments started to increase population survival rates, and to find how long it took for the increase to level off, indicating that the full population effect of the breakthrough had been realized. A Weibull relative survival model is used because the model parameters are easily interpretable when assessing the effect of advances in clinical trials. However, the methods apply to any relative survival model that falls within the generalized linear models framework. The model is fitted by using modifications of existing software (SAS, GLIM) and profile likelihood methods. The results are similar to those from a cause-specific analysis of the data by Feuer and co-workers. Survival started to improve around the time that a major chemotherapy breakthrough (nitrogen mustard, Oncovin, prednisone and procarbazine) was publicized in the mid 1960s but did not level off for 11 years. For the analysis of data where the cause of death is obtained from death certificates, the relative survival approach has the advantage of providing the necessary adjustment for expected mortality from causes other than the disease without requiring information on the causes of death.
Unsupervised Classification of Chemical Compounds
Authors: Guttiérrez Toscano P. , Marriott F. H. C.
Published: March 2003

Clustering chemical compounds of similar structure is important in the pharmaceutical industry. One way of describing the structure is the chemical ‘fingerprint’. The fingerprint is a string of binary digits, and typical data sets consist of very large numbers of fingerprints; a suitable clustering procedure must take account of the properties of this method of coding, and must be able to handle large data sets. This paper describes the analysis of a set of fingerprint data. The analysis was based on an appropriate distance measure derived from the fingerprints, followed by metric scaling into a low-dimensional space. An approximation to metric scaling, suitable for very large data sets, was investigated. Cluster analysis using two programs, mclust and AutoClass-C, was carried out on the scaled data.
The Use of Resampling Methods to Simplify Regression Models in Medical Statistics
Authors: Sauerbrei Willi
Published: March 2003

The number of variables in a regression model is often too large and a more parsimonious model may be preferred. Selection strategies (e.g. all-subset selection with various penalties for model complexity, or stepwise procedures) are widely used, but there are few analytical results about their properties. The problems of replication stability, model complexity, selection bias and an over-optimistic estimate of the predictive value of a model are discussed together with several proposals based on resampling methods. The methods are applied to data from a case–control study on atopic dermatitis and a clinical trial to compare two chemotherapy regimes by using a logistic regression and a Cox model. A recent proposal to use shrinkage factors to reduce the bias of parameter estimates caused by model building is extended to parameterwise shrinkage factors and is discussed as a further possibility to illustrate problems of models which are too complex. The results from the resampling approaches favour greater simplicity of the final regression model.
Multitaper Testing of Spectral Lines and the Detection of the Solar Rotation Frequency and its Harmonics
Authors: Denison D. G. T. , Walden A. T. , Balogh A. , Forsyth R. J.
Published: March 2003

We develop statistical testing methodology for closely spaced spectral lines based on multitaper spectrum estimates and apply it to a time series of solar magnetic field magnitude data recorded by the Ulysses spacecraft. The test is formulated through complex-valued weighted least squares. Using this test in combination with the test for well-separated lines, we can accurately detect the solar equatorial rotation frequency of the sun, and its harmonics, from data recorded by Ulysses’s magnetometer at solar mid-latitudes; this is a potentially important result for solar physicists, since it has implications for the structure and dynamics of magnetic fields in the solar corona.
On the Use of Corrections for Overdispersion
Authors: Lindsey J. K.
Published: March 2003

In studying fluctuations in the size of a blackgrouse (Tetrao tetrix) population, an autoregressive model using climatic conditions appears to follow the change quite well. However, the deviance of the model is considerably larger than its number of degrees of freedom. A widely used statistical rule of thumb holds that overdispersion is present in such situations, but model selection based on a direct likelihood approach can produce opposing results. Two further examples, of binomial and of Poisson data, have models with deviances that are almost twice the degrees of freedom and yet various overdispersion models do not fit better than the standard model for independent data. This can arise because the rule of thumb only considers a point estimate of dispersion, without regard for any measure of its precision. A reasonable criterion for detecting overdispersion is that the deviance be at least twice the number of degrees of freedom, the familiar Akaike information criterion, but the actual presence of overdispersion should then be checked by some appropriate modelling procedure.
The Relationship Between Double-Exponential Families and Extended Quasi-Likelihood Families, with Application to Modelling Geissler’s Human Sex Ratio Data
Authors: Lee Y. , Nelder J. A.
Published: March 2003

The human sex ratio data, collected in Saxony in the 19th century by Geissler, are reanalysed by joint modelling of the mean and dispersion. Extended quasi-likelihood and the unnormalized double-exponential family are shown to lead to identical inference. The use of the unnormalized form is discussed. The relationship between multinomial and Poisson models is studied for overdispersed data.
A Multivariate Time Series Model for the Analysis and Prediction of Carbon Monoxide Atmospheric Concentrations
Authors: Tonellato Stefano F.
Published: March 2003

We use a Bayesian multivariate time series model for the analysis of the dynamics of carbon monoxide atmospheric concentrations. The data are observed at four sites. It is assumed that the logarithm of the observed process can be represented as the sum of unobservable components: a trend, a daily periodicity, a stationary autoregressive signal and an erratic term. Bayesian analysis is performed via Gibbs sampling. In particular, we consider the problem of joint temporal prediction when data are observed at a few sites and it is not possible to fit a complex space–time model. A retrospective analysis of the trend component is also given, which is important in that it explains the evolution of the variability in the observed process.
Functional and Dynamic Magnetic Resonance Imaging Using Vector Adaptive Weights Smoothing
Authors: Polzehl Jörg , Spokoiny Vladimir G.
Published: March 2003

We consider the problem of statistical inference for functional and dynamic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). A new approach is proposed which extends the adaptive weights smoothing procedure of Polzehl and Spokoiny that was originally designed for image denoising. We demonstrate how the adaptive weights smoothing method can be applied to time series of images, which typically occur in functional and dynamic MRI. It is shown how signal detection in functional MRI and the analysis of dynamic MRI can benefit from spatially adaptive smoothing. The performance of the procedure is illustrated by using real and simulated data.
Application of Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods to Projecting Cancer Incidence and Mortality
Authors: Bray Isabelle
Published: March 2003

Projections based on incidence and mortality data collected by cancer registries are important for estimating current rates in the short term, and public health planning in the longer term. Classical approaches are dependent on questionable parametric assumptions. We implement a Bayesian age–period–cohort model, allowing the inclusion of prior belief concerning the smoothness of the parameters. The model is described by a directed acyclic graph. Computations are carried out by using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (implemented in BUGS) in which the degree of smoothing is learnt from the data. Results and convergence diagnostics are discussed for an exemplary data set. We then compare the Bayesian projections with other methods in a range of situations to demonstrate its flexibility and robustness.
Nonparametric Measures of Association between a Spatial Point Process and a Random Set, with Geological Applications
Authors: Foxall Rob , Baddeley Adrian
Published: March 2003

In mining exploration it is often desired to predict the occurrence of ore deposits given other geological information, such as the locations of faults. More generally it is of interest to measure the spatial association between two spatial patterns observed in the same survey region. Berman developed parametric methods for conditional inference about a point process X given another spatial process Y. This paper proposes an alternative, nonparametric, approach using distance methods, analogous to the use of the summary functions F, G and J for univariate point patterns. Our methods apply to a bivariate spatial process (X, Y) consisting of a point process X and a random set Y. In particular we develop a bivariate analogue of the J-function of van Lieshout and Baddeley which shows promise as a summary statistic and turns out to be closely related to Berman's analysis. Properties of the bivariate J-function include a multiplicative identity under independent superposition, which has no analogue in the univariate case. Two geological examples are investigated.
Maximuma PosterioriEstimation of Image Boundaries by Dynamic Programming
Authors: Glasbey C. A. , Young M. J.
Published: March 2003

We seek a computationally fast method for solving a difficult image segmentation problem: the positioning of boundaries on medical scanner images to delineate tissues of interest. We formulate a Bayesian model for image boundaries such that the maximum a posterioriestimator is obtainable very efficiently by dynamic programming. The prior model for the boundary is a biased random walk and the likelihood is based on a border appearance model, with parameter values obtained from training images. The method is applied successfully to the segmentation of ultrasound images and X-ray computed tomographs of sheep, for application in sheep breeding programmes.
A GENERAL TEST FOR UNIVARIATE SEASONALITY
Authors: Flores Rafael , Novales Alfonso
Published: March 2003

We propose a general test for univariate seasonality. Starting from a multivariate model for the seasons, some constraints must hold, both on the covariance matrix of the innovations and among coefficients across equations, for a univariate representation of seasonality to be appropriate. Applied to a set of 23 UK macroeconomic variables, our test shows that a multivariate representation of seasonality should be preferred in at least eight cases. This introduces a serious questioning of standard univariate filters to estimate the seasonal component in some economic time series, and suggests the possibility of a more complex but richer way of characterizing relationships among seasonal economic variables.
Consistency of Frequency Estimates Based on the Wavelet Transform
Authors: Shibata Ritei , Takagiwa Mutsumi
Published: March 2003

The consistency of the least squares estimate of frequencies modulated in amplitude is investiga ted. It is proved that the estimate based on the wavelet transform is consistent when dilation and translation parameters of the wavelet transform as well as the sampling points are carefully chosen in order to preserve consistency. Our theorem shows that an intuitive method proposed by P. Guillemain et al. (Estimation of spectral lines with the help of the wavelet transform: application in NMR spectroscopy. In Wavelets and Applications (ed. Y. Meyer). New York: Springer, 1992, pp. 38–68) works well for the non‐noisy case but does not work well for the noisy case. A key to the consistency is the use of the localization property of the wavelet transform
Tests of Independence in Time Series
Authors: Kulperger R. J. , Lockhart R. A.
Published: March 2003

Tests of the hypothesis that a seriesX1...,Xn is a sequence of independent and identically distributed observations are investigated. The tests are based on a smoothing of the plotXi+1 againstXi. Asymptotic distribution theory on the null hypothesis and under contiguous alternatives is derived. The resulting limit distributions are available in published tables. Omnibus quadratic statistics of the Anderson–Darling type are compared with some optimal statistics and are shown to have good asymptotic properties. A Monte Carlo study is provided to show that the tests have good small sample properties
Some Results Concerning the Asymptotic Distribution of Sample Fourier Transforms and Periodograms for a Discrete‐time Stationary Process with a Continuous Spectrum
Authors: Walker A. M.
Published: March 2003

We consider a stationary process (Xt, t = 0, ±1, ...) with a continuous spectrum. Denote by Dn(λ) a tapered Fourier transform of (X0, X1, ..., Xn−1) at (angular) frequency λ. We obtain the asymptotic distribution of Dn(λ) and the joint asymptotic distribution of {Dn(λj), 1 ≤j≤k} with continuity of the spectral density f(.) at the relevant frequencies as the only assumption concerning the second‐order structure of (Xt); all other assumptions required are easily stated. The results are extended to processes for which f(.) is continuous except at λ = 0, with limλ←0f(λ)λ2d = K, a constant, where 0 < d < ½, as is typical of certain types of processes with long‐range dependence. Results for the sample periodogram, proportional to |Dn(λ)|2, follow immediately.
The Limiting Density of Unit Root Test Statistics: A Unifying Technique
Authors: Gonen Mithat , Puri Madan L. , Ruymgaart Frits H. , Van Zuijlen Martien C. A.
Published: March 2003

In this note we introduce a simple principle to derive a constructive expression for the density of the limiting distribution, under the null hypothesis, of unit root statistics for an AR(1)‐process in a variety of situations. We consider the case of unknown mean and reconsider the well‐known situation where the mean is zero. For long‐range dependent errors we indicate how the principle might apply again. We also show that in principle the method also works for a near unit root case. Weak convergence and subsequent Karhunen‐Loeve expansion of the weak limit of the partial sum process of the errors plays an important role, along with the evaluation of a certain normal type integral with complex mean and variance. For independent and long range dependent errors this weak limit is ordinary and fractional Brownian motion respectively.

AMS 1991 subject classification. Primary 62M10; secondary 62E20.
Spectral Regression For Cointegrated Time Series With Long‐Memory Innovations
Authors: Marinucci D.
Published: March 2003

Spectral regression is considered for cointegrated time series with long‐memory innovations. The estimates we advocate are shown to be consistent when cointegrating relationships among stationary variables are investigated, while ordinary least squares are inconsistent due to correlation between the regressors and the cointegrating residuals; in the presence of unit roots, these estimates share the same asymptotic distribution as ordinary least squares. As a corollary of the main result, we provide a functional central limit theorem for quadratic forms in non‐stationary fractionally integrated processes.
Nonparametric Tests of Change‐Points with Tapered Data
Authors: Rozenholc Yves
Published: March 2003

In this work we build two families of nonparametric tests using tapered data for the off‐line detection of change‐points in the spectral characteristics of a stationary Gaussian process. This is done using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics based on integrated tapered periodograms. Convergence is obtained under the null hypothesis by means of a double indexed (frequency– time) process together with some extensions of Dirichlet and Fejer kernels. Consistency is proved using these statistics under the alternative. Then, using numerical simulations, we observe that the use of tapered data significantly improves the properties of the test, especially in the case of small samples.
Elimination of Third‐series Effect and Defining Partial Measures of Causality
Authors: Hosoya Yuzo
Published: March 2003

Using the one‐way effect extraction method, this paper presents a set of partial causal measures which represents quantitatively the interdependence between a pair of vector‐valued processes in the presence of a third process. Those measures are defined for stationary as well as for a class of non‐stationary time series. In contrast to conventional conditioning methods, the partial concept defined in the paper would be mostly devoid of feedback distortion by the third process. The paper also discusses statistical inference on the proposed measures.
Model Selection in Threshold Models
Authors: Kapetanios George
Published: March 2003

This paper considers information criteria as model evaluation tools for nonlinear threshold models. Results concerning the consistency of information criteria in selecting the lag order of linear autoregressive models are extended to nonlinear autoregressive threshold models. Monte Carlo evidence of the small sample performance of a number of criteria is presented.

JEL. C15, C44, C52.
Nonlinear Autocorrelograms: an Application to Inter‐Trade Durations
Authors: GOURIÉROUX CHRISTIAN , JASIAK JOANN
Published: March 2003

The paper presents a study of temporal dependence in nonlinear transformations of time series. We examine the effects of parametric transformations on autocorrelation values and the persistence range with special emphasis on long memory processes. We derive an invariance property for the order of fractional integration of transformed normal processes and propose a related specification test. Within the class of nonlinear time series transforms, we identify those which maximize autocorrelations at selected lags. This procedure is based on nonlinear canonical correlations analysis adapted to serially correlated data. The methods proposed in this paper may be applied to various financial time series that usually are transformed prior to estimation, like returns, volumes or inter‐trade durations. In examples illustrating our approach, we use series of durations between trades of the Alcatel stock on the Paris Bourse.
Nonlinear functionals of the periodogram
Authors: FAY GILLES , MOULINES ERIC , SOULIER PHILIPPE
Published: March 2003

A central limit theorem is stated for a wide class of triangular arrays of nonlinear functionals of the periodogram of a stationary linear sequence. Those functionals may be singular and not‐bounded. The proof of this result is based on Bartlett decomposition and an existing counterpart result for the periodogram of an independent and identically distributed sequence, here taken to be the driving noise. The main contribution of this paper is to prove the asymptotic negligibility of the remainder term from Bartlett decomposition, feasible under short dependence assumption. As it is highlighted by applications (to estimation of nonlinear functionals of the spectral density, robust spectral estimation, local polynomial approximation and log‐periodogram regression), this extends may results until then tied to Gaussian assumption.
Optimal sampling for density estimation in continuous time
Authors: Blanke D. , Pumo B.
Published: March 2003

Abstract. In the framework of nonparametric density estimation, first, we give optimal sampling schemes of continuous time processes. Next, we study effects of known or small errors‐in‐variables on such samplings. Throughout the paper, various simulations are also presented.
Economics of Education and Work Incentives
Authors: Soldatos Gerasimos
Published: March 2003

An argument connecting human capital theory with the ‘weak version’ of the signaling hypothesis, is advanced initially. It is an argument that helps methodologically the derivation of a work‐incentives view of the complementarity between human capital theory and the strong version of the signaling theory. This view implies in turn that work incentives have only an income effect, which emerges as the solution to a moral hazard problem concerning the disclosure of productivity‐augmenting capabilities to the employer. Thus, it is concluded that policy‐induced disincentives, working against this effect and involving perhaps a substitution effect, too, would have serious repercussions on the productivity of labor unless employees and employers take measures to counteract the disincentives.
Regional Disparities and Labour Mobility: the Euro‐11 versus the USA
Authors: Bentivogli Chiara , Pagano Patrizio
Published: March 2003

In this paper we assess whether regional disparities in the euro area stimulate labour mobility, using migration behaviour in US states as a benchmark. Large regional disparities within European countries and size differences between them and US states led us to select regions as the appropriate unit of analysis for Europe. While the level of net immigration flows with respect to population is similar in the USA and the euro area, our study shows that its sensitivity to regional disparities differs considerably. Indeed, migration is much more significantly influenced by income disparities in the USA than it is in the Euro‐11, both in the short and the long term. Furthermore, the responsiveness of net migration inflows to shocks to the relative unemployment rate is negative in the regions of the USA, but nil in those of the Euro‐11. Finally, risk factors (identified in the theoretical model as the variance of income) are significant determinants of migration decisions in Europe but not in the USA.
Quality and Demand of Child Care and Female Labour Supply in Italy
Authors: Chiuri Maria
Published: March 2003

This paper provides a micro‐econometric evaluation of the effects of child care rationing on the household expenditures on child care and on the female participation decision, in Italy. A sample of households is used with at least one pre‐school child, selected from the Bank of Italy Survey of Household Income and Wealth (SHIW); this is complemented with ISTAT statistics on nursery and crèche access rates. It is found that both child care rationing and the availability of alternative forms of non‐market child care (relatives etc.) affect in various ways the household decisions over child care expenditure and labour supply.
Job Satisfaction, Comparison Earnings, and Gender
Authors: Sloane P. J. , Williams H.
Published: March 2003

This paper examines sex differences in job satisfaction by utilizing data from the 1986 UK Social and Economic Life Initiative (SCELI) household survey. It attempts to ascertain the relationship between actual and comparison pay and job satisfaction. Employees were asked on a 0–10 scale how satisfied or dissatisfied they were with their present job. They were also asked to state whether they were equitably, over or underpaid and to say how much pay they thought they deserved. Uniquely, therefore, we are able to analyse the effects of both actual and objective and subjective comparative pay measures on job satisfaction. The paper rejects the view that the higher expressed job satisfaction of women represents an innate difference rather than the results of self‐selection into jobs with highly valued attributes.
International Migration Dynamics: The Role of Experience and Social Networks
Authors: Deléchat Corinne
Published: March 2003

This paper tests the dynamic implications of cumulative causation and network theory on the self‐sustaining nature of the migration process. A sequential migration model is derived and estimated with a panel of Mexican household heads for the years 1980–89. Consistently with cumulative causation and network theory, the empirical results show that, after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity, previous migration experience and migration‐related variables are the strongest predictors of current migration decisions. This persistence in migration patterns implies that immigration policies inducing small changes in expected costs and benefits of US work fail to prevent entry into, or encourage exit from, the US labor market by experienced migrants. However, large temporary disruptions such as the 1994 Mexican peso devaluation may permanently increase migratory flows by inducing new migrants to enter the US labor market.
Compounding and the Representation of L2 Inflectional Morphology
Authors: Murphy Victoria A.
Published: March 2003

Past research has indicated that L1 acquirers do not include regular plural [‐s] inflection within compounds, whereas they do include irregulars. This article reports on further work investigating this issue in L2 acquisition. One hundred adolescent francophone ESL students and 15 adult native‐speaker controls were required to generate novel compounds in English. The results indicated that although participants reliably included more irregular nounplurals in compounds than regulars, regular plurals were frequently found. The results are discussed in terms of whether both the dual‐mechanism and level‐ordering models are relevant in the domain of second language acquisition. The evidence does not unequivocally support either model; rather, the results may be best accounted for with a more associative model of language learning.
The Equal Employment Opportunity Law: A Decade of Change for Japanese Women?
Authors: Gelb Joyce
Published: March 2003

This article analyzes the impact of the Equal Employment Opportunity Law in Japan, passed in 1986 and now over a decade old. The article views the law as weak and examines its role in relation to the three groups most affected by the legislation: women, bureaucrats, and employers. The article argues that, although the law has produced few gains in employment opportunities for women, it has led to renewed efforts at litigation, increased consciousness and activism among women, and amendments to the law, passed in 1997.
Context and Change: The Evolution of Pioneering Drug Courts in Portland and Las Vegas (1991–1998)
Authors: Goldkamp John , White Michael , Robinson Jennifer
Published: March 2003

Drug courts in the United States are still relatively young, but they have proliferated dramatically since the first innovation in Miami in 1989. Research focusing on drug courts is now beginning to gain momentum, though it still lags considerably behind the growth of the movement itself. This article describes findings from a first “longitudinal” examination of two of the nation’s first and longest operating courts in Portland and Las Vegas, focusing on the dynamic nature of the evolution of the model as adapted in each site. In particular, the research considers the impact of contextual factors – laws, administrative policies, and federal court orders – on the growth of drug court models in each jurisdiction as measured through their screening and enrolling mechanisms over time. The time series analyses suggest that several contextual factors played an important role in shaping these courts and affecting their impact on the target populations and the results they produced. The longitudinal findings illustrate the importance of context in making sense of “normal” evaluation findings and emphasize the dynamic nature of the change process in implementing innovative policy in the criminal courts.
School Violence Prevention: Current Status and Policy Recommendations
Authors: Peterson Reece L. , Larson Jim , Skiba Russell
Published: March 2003

The purpose of this article is to identify an array of strategies that are available to schools to address concerns school violence and to identify some of the potential school or school district policy options related to those choices. We illustrate that many promising options are available to schools to address violence and other inappropriate behavior of students. The very breadth and diversity of these options may pose a problem in attempting to develop a comprehensive local policy on this topic. While many schools have chosen increasingly punitive zero‐tolerance policies as their primary strategy of violence prevention, there is little or no research evidence documenting that such an approach can contribute to school safety. Rather, effective school violence prevention requires comprehensive planning involving documented best‐practice programs, preventive strategies, and effective responses to any violence that may occur. Since research documenting the effects of violence prevention strategies is inconsistent, it is incumbent upon schools to consider carefully which programs best meet the needs of their local situation, and to monitor the effectiveness of new programs in improving school safety and reducing disruption and incivility.
The Stability of Emu‐wide Money Demand Functions and the Monetary Policy Strategy of the European Central Bank
Authors: Bruggeman Annick
Published: March 2003

In this paper we investigate whether monetary aggregates could play a role as either intermediate targets or indicators of the single monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). To this end we estimate money demand functions for the European Economic and Monetary Union and test for their stability. Our estimations suggest that M3H in particular can play a role in both a monetary and an inflation targeting strategy. If the ECB chooses to opt for an inflation targeting strategy MR and even M1, in addition to M3H, may well serve as important indicators, alongside a number of other financial and real variables.
Short‐run Real Exchange Rate Dynamics
Authors: Coakley Jerry , Fuertes Ana M.
Published: March 2003

The short‐run dynamics of German mark and US dollar real exchange rates are investigated for a panel of 19 OECD economies in a vector error correction framework for the 1973‐96 period. The novel persistence profiles approach of Pesaran and Shin (‘Cointegration and Speed of Convergence to Equilibrium’, Journal of Econometrics, Vol. 71, (1996), pp. 117–143) indicates that the effect of system‐wide shocks declines rapidly initially but decays slowly thereafter. It yields an average of just one year for the half‐life of such shocks but some seven years before they fully dissipate. These half‐life estimates are just one‐quarter of the consensus estimates. Our results are consistent with non‐linear adjustment and with monetary factors being the main source of real exchange rate volatility.
The Impact on Domestic Productivity of Inward Investment in the UK
Authors: Driffield Nigel
Published: March 2003

One of the basic tenets of UK industrial policy, that attracting inward investment into the UK stimulates domestic productivity growth, is examined. A model of productivity growth is developed for the indigenous sector of UK manufacturing, linking domestic productivity growth to theoretical explanations of inward investment. The paper demonstrates that inward investment does stimulate productivity growth in the domestic sector of around 0.75 per cent per annum. However, this cannot be attributed to investment or output spillovers, but is a result of the productivity advantage exhibited by the foreign firms.
Applying Academic Research on Monetary Policy Rules: An Exercise in Translational Economics
Authors: Taylor John B.
Published: March 2003

Recent progress in the practical application of research on monetary policy rules in the United States during the 1990s is examined. The paper focuses on how simple policy rules that describe how the central bank’s interest rate responds to the economy have provided a useful framework for actual decision making. It is argued that the process by which economic research is put into practice—called translational economics—is fascinating and worthy of careful study in general; several recent examples from research on monetary policy rules are offered to show why.
Asymmetric Cross‐market Volatility Spillovers: Evidence from Daily Data on Equity and Foreign Exchange Markets
Authors: Apergis Nicholas , Rezitis Anthony
Published: March 2003

We investigate cross‐market volatility spillover effects across New York and London foreign exchange and equity markets. By using several daily data‐sets, each relating to a different time of the day, and the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity approach, the empirical analysis found volatility spillover effects (meteor shower effects) from the foreign exchange market in London and New York to the equity market in New York and London, respectively. By contrast, the results did not show volatility spillover effects from the equity markets to the foreign exchange markets across New York and London.
Laguerre Series for Asian and Other Options
Authors: Dufresne Daniel
Published: March 2003

This paper has four goals: (a) relate ladder height distributions to option values; (b) show how Laguerre expansions may be used in the computation of densities, distribution functions, and option prices; (c) derive some new results on the integral of geometric Brownian motion over a finite interval; and (d) apply the preceding results to the determination of the distribution of the integral of geometric Brownian motion and the computation of Asian option values. The usual fixed‐strike options on the average are treated, as well as options with payoffs expressed in terms of one over the average of the underlying security, which this author calls “reciprocal Asian options.” In all cases the underlying asset is represented by geometric Brownian motion, the averages are performed continuously, and the options are of European type.
Analytical Valuation of American Options on Jump‐Diffusion Processes
Authors: Gukhal Chandrasekhar Reddy
Published: March 2003

We derive analytic formulas for the value of American options when the underlying asset follows a jump‐diffusion process and pays continuous dividends. They early exercise premium has a form very different form from that for diffusion processes, and this can be attributed to the discontinuous nature of the price paths. Analytical formulas are derived for several distributions of the jump amplitude.
MSM Estimators of European Options on Assets with Jumps
Authors: Amaro de Matos João
Published: March 2003

This paper shows that, under some regularity conditions, the method of simulated moments estimator of European option pricing models developed by Bossaerts and Hillion (1993) can be extended to the case where the prices of the underlying asset follow Lévy processes, which allow for jumps, with no losses on their asymptotic properties, still allowing for the joint test of the model.
Ontology According to van Fraassen: Some Problems with Constructive Empiricism
Authors: Norris Christopher
Published: March 2003

This paper argues the case for ontological realism as against various present‐day forms of conventionalist, instrumentalist, cultural‐relativist, or anti‐realist doctrine. In particular it takes issue with Richard Rorty’s writings on philosophy of science – where these ideas receive their most extreme and provocative statement – and with Bas van Fraassen’s more moderate ‘constructive empiricist’ approach. This latter entails ontological commitment to whatever shows up through trained observation or empirical research. However, it refuses to countenance realist claims concerning the existence of (as yet) unobserved entities and their role in explanatory theories premised on putative laws of nature. I maintain that van Fraassen’s position is: (1) inadequate to account for our knowledge of the growth of scientific knowledge; (2) self‐refuting since often undermined by examples which he himself supplies; and (3) incapable of mounting resistance to other, more wholesale (e.g., Rortian) varieties of anti‐realist argument. Only by combining causal realism with a principle of inference to the best explanation can philosophy of science avoid these kinds of hyperinduced sceptical doubt.
African Philosophy and the Universalist Thesis
Authors: Van Hook Jay M.
Published: March 2003

This article examines the contention, frequently defended by contemporary African philosophers, that philosophy is universal. Examples of the thesis are cited; various interpretations of its meaning are analyzed; and arguments against it by other African philosophers are presented. The article argues that the universalist thesis, however interpreted, contributes nothing to African philosophy and should be abandoned.
Schoolhouses, Jailhouses and the House of Being: The Tragedy of Philosophy’s Metaphors
Authors: Cohen Daniel H.
Published: March 2003

As a rule, there is nothing in the words themselves to mark off metaphors from literal language. If a boundary could somehow be drawn, it would be in constant need of re‐adjustment as metaphors become entrenched, idiomatic, and finally literal, and literal phrases are put to figurative or hyperbolic, and then metaphorical uses. Further, there is no algorithmic recovery of the intended meaning of a metaphor from the meanings of its components, no function that takes literal meanings as its arguments and has metaphorical meaning as its output. That is, metaphors are syntactically invisible, pragmatically unstable, and semantically under‐determined. Their creation, use, and interpretation are almost impenetrable mysteries. As if to spite semantic theorists, they are also linguistic commonplaces, present in every kind of discourse.

The discourse of philosophy is no exception to this rule, availing itself of the various stylistic, heuristic, and explanatory roles metaphors can play. Philosophy also produces metaphors of another sort, metaphors that differ in important ways from the metaphors of art and literature, as well as the metaphors of the natural and social sciences. These “grand“ metaphors are lasting monuments to the triumphs of philosophical discourse, even as they are also testimony to the failures of philosophical theorizing. This is because philosophy’s grand metaphors were never intended that way. They are better read as structural hypotheses that have become metaphors only after failing as literal truths. Ironically, it is precisely as metaphors that these images are integrated into our ways of thinking. In the end, thought itself is re‐structured, and these failures as descriptive truths succeed in becoming “constitutive truths” of a new reality.
Does Global Inequality Matter?
Authors: Beitz Charles R.
Published: March 2003

Global economic and political inequalities are in most respects greater today than they have been for decades. From one point of view inequality is a bad thing simply because it involves a deviation from equality, which is thought to have value for its own sake. But it is controversial whether this position can be defended, and if it can, whether the egalitarian ideal on which the defense may depend applies at the global level as in individual societies. Setting aside directly egalitarian reasons for concern about global inequality, this paper explores several reasons for concern that derive from nonegalitarian values – primarily those associated with poverty and material deprivation, humiliation, the impact of inequality on the capacity for self‐control and self‐government, and the unfairness of political decision‐making procedures with large economic inequalities in the background.
Deontic Logic and Computer‐Supported Computer Ethics
Authors: Van Den Hoven Jeroen , Lokhorst Gert‐Jan
Published: March 2003

We provide a description and informal analysis of the commonalities in moral discourse concerning issues in the field of information and communications technology, present a logic model (DEAL) of this type of moral discourse that makes use of recent research in deontic, epistemic, and action logic, and indicate – drawing upon recent research in computer implementations of modal logic – how information systems may be developed that implement the proposed formalization.