Validation of Recursive Partitioning Analysis and Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment in patients treated initially with radiosurgery alone
Authors: Likhacheva Anna , Pinnix Chelsea C. , Parikh Neil , Allen Pamela K. , Guha-Thakurta Nandita , McAleer Mary , Sulman Erik P. , Mahajan Anita , Shiu Almon , Luo Dershan , Chiu Max , Brown Paul D. , Prabhu Sujit S. , Chang Eric L. 
Published: November 2018

Object

Brain metastases present a therapeutic challenge because patients with metastatic cancers live longer now than in the recent past due to systemic therapies that, while effective, may not penetrate the blood-brain barrier. In the present study the authors sought to validate the Diagnosis-Specific Graded Prognostic Assessment (DS-GPA), a new prognostic index that takes into account the histological characteristics of the primary tumor, and the Radiation Therapy Ontology Group Recursive Partitioning Analysis (RPA) system by using a single-institution database of patients who were treated initially with stereotactic radiosurgery (SRS) alone for brain metastases.

Methods

Investigators retrospectively identified adult patients who had undergone SRS at a single institution, MD Anderson Cancer Center, for initial treatment of brain metastases between 2003 and 2010 but excluded those who had undergone craniotomy and/or whole-brain radiation therapy at an earlier time; the final number was 251. The Leksell Gamma Knife was used to treat 223 patients, and a linear accelerator was used to treat 28 patients. The patient population was grouped according to DS-GPA scores as follows: 0–0.5 (7 patients), 1 (33 patients), 1.5 (25 patients), 2 (63 patients), 2.5 (14 patients), 3 (68 patients), and 3.5–4 (41 patients). The same patients were also grouped according to RPA classes: 1 (24 patients), 2 (216 patients), and 3 (11 patients). The most common histological diagnoses were non–small cell lung cancer (34%), melanoma (29%), and breast carcinoma (16%). The median number of lesions was 2 (range 1–9) and the median total tumor volume was 0.9 cm3 (range 0.3–22.9 cm3). The median radiation dose was 20 Gy (range 14–24 Gy). Stereotactic radiosurgery was performed as the sole treatment (62% of patients) or combined with a salvage treatment consisting of SRS (22%), whole-brain radiation therapy (12%), or resection (4%). The median duration of follow-up was 9.4 months.

Results

In this patient group the median overall survival was 11.1 months. The DS-GPA prognostic index divided patients into prognostically significant groups. Median survival times were 2.8 months for DS-GPA Scores 0–0.5, 3.9 months for Score 1, 6.6 months for Score 1.5, 12.9 months for Score 2, 11.9 months for Score 2.5, 12.2 months for Score 3, and 31.4 months for Scores 3.5–4 (p < 0.0001). In the RPA groups, the median overall survival times were 38.8 months for Class 1, 9.4 months for Class 2, and 2.8 months for Class 3 (p < 0.0001). Neither the RPA class nor the DS-GPA score was prognostic for local tumor control or new lesion–free survival. A multivariate analysis revealed that patient age > 60 years, Karnofsky Performance Scale score ≤ 80%, and total lesion volume > 2 cm3 were significant adverse prognostic factors for overall survival.

Conclusions

Application of the DS-GPA to a database of patients with brain metastases who were treated with SRS appears to be valid and offers additional prognostic refinement over that provided by the RPA. The DS-GPA may also allow for improved selection of patients to undergo initial SRS alone and should be studied further.