L'émigration de l'ex-Union soviétique : prémices et inconnues
Authors: Vichnevski Anatoli , Zayontchkovskaia Jeanne 
Published: October 2008

Soviet emigration: premises and unknown factors

Anatoli Vichnevski and Jeanne Zayontchkovskaia

One can distinguish three main waves of Soviet emigration between 1917 and 1990 : the first two correspond to the consequences of the 1917 revolution and the two world wars. A third, labelled « ethnic », concerns the last decades. It consists of representatives of minority nationalities dissatisfied with their status who are seeking either their original homeland or integration into a strong Diaspora abroad. Since 1988, the situation has modified. A recent freedom of movement has vastly increased the tide of emigration, mainly directed to Israel and Germany. For the most part, the emigrants come from large towns in Russia, the Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

The coming into effect in January 1993 of the voted laws on freedom of movement will accelerate this process. It will be the «fourth emigration», the essential subject of this article.

This new « post-colonial » emigration has several aspects to it. The authors refer back in history to the territorial expansion of Russiea and to the « internal » colonisation of the XIXth and XXth centuries. Most of this emigration took place around the sixties, into the expanding towns in Byelorussia, Moldavia, Central Asia, Kazakhstan but also Latvia and Estonia (+ 25 million of which 70 % to the Ukraine and Kazakhstan). A reversal of this trend is now being witnessed with the return of Russians to their republic and a parallel influx of other nationalities to Russia.

European emigration abroad would affect the « modernised » populations who are far more open to the Western way of life, mainly inhabiting as they do the European parts ofthe USSR, Siberia and the Far East. Its evolution will depend on the internal turn of events in each country.

The emigration of « Asiatic » populations will essentially be due to the increase in native labour caused by competition in the work market. The departure of « foreign elements » has far from settled the problems of over-population in Central Asia which have caused a rise in unemployment and a reinforcement of tension and nationalism. The situation is getting worse even in Russia and looks set to stay until the opening up of various internal migrations. And so a departure abroad becomes the ultimate cure for the ever-worsening conditions of life.

Another characteristic of this new wave is the departure of qualified manpower (the « brain drain »), mainly from the European republics (85 % of political emigrants are townsfolk) but it is difficult to evaluate the importance of this fact which will also depend on conclusive agreements with western governments.

Any emigration scenario is possible in the USSR, from a massive exodus to the blocking of borders following a violent political crisis. The assessments made here only relate to an economic type of emigration. Technical and psychological difficultes can slow down the present migration. With the present state of affairs and without any further details at hand, anything can be envisaged.