bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
RISK BEHAVIOR IN THE TRANSMISSION MECHANISM OF MONETARY POLICY IN INDONESIA
Authors: Satria Doni , M. Juhro Solikin
Published: January 2017

This study explores interconnections between risk behaviour in the financial sector, particularly banking sector, with monetary policy stance. Referring Bernanke and Blinder (1988) modified model for analyzing the bank credit behavior, we develop an empirical model to test the role of risk behaviour in monetary policy transmission mechanism. Vector Error Correction Model are applied to test the significance of interaction between risk variables and monetary policy stance in the short run dynamics of credit behavior around its long-run cointegration with real GDP. Some empirical results emerge from this preliminary study. First, there is early indication that risk taking channel in the monetary policy transmission mechanism exists in Indonesia during analysis period. Second, risk variables and credit tend to move procyclicalyl while monetary policy stance tends to a-cyclical. Third, pro-cyclical behavior of credit and risk variables reverses the effect of loose monetary policy stance, and there is an indication of asymmetric effect between tight monetary policy and loose monetary policy in Indonesian economy. These empirical findings bring about policy recommencations for better understanding on the risk behavior in the banking sector, as well as integration beetween monetary dan financial sector policies.JEL Code : E52, E58,Keyword: Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism, Monetary Policy Stance, Banking Risk Behavior, Risk Perception
INFLATION TARGETING UNDER IMPERFECT CREDIBILITY: LESSONS FROM INDONESIAN EXPERIENCE
Authors: Harmanta Harmanta , Bathaluddin M. Barik , Waluyo Jati
Published: January 2017

This paper try to assess role of credibility in the implementation of inflation targeting framework in Indonesia. It illustrates how credibility may play an important role in the evolution of the Indonesian monetary policy. Knowing the degree of credibility would beneficial for Bank Indonesia (BI) to understand how to adjust policy instrument to achieve a long-term inflation target. Scaled from zero (purely not credible) to one (perfect credibility), our quantitative measurements found that credibility index for Indonesian monetary policy converge to around 0.5. Refer to projection and simulation results in this paper, the study shows expectation inflation of economic agents is strongly influenced by monetary policy credibility. The more credible the monetary policy, the faster inflation expectation would anchor to its target. In addition, high credibility also increase the efficiency of the monetary policy transmission since the disinflation cost represented by sacrifice ratio is lower. Under imperfect credibility the central bank prefer to attain its inflation target gradually, and if the credibility stock is doubled, then achieving its long-term inflation target required a lot shorter time (approximately 0.4 periods than the baseline). JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58, E61Keywords: Disinflation, Monetary Policy, Imperfect Credibility, Sacrifice Ratio
THE RELATION BETWEEN GROWTH OPPORTUNITY, LEVERAGE POLICY AND FUNCTION OF COVENANT TO CONTROL THE AGENCY CONFLICT BETWEEN SHAREHOLDERS AND DEBTHOLDERS
Authors: Fatmasari Rhini
Published: January 2017

Agency conflict is a phenomenon that occurs when a firm is doing its financing policies, especially of those related to the leverage strategies. Some of the former researches revealed some empirical evidence of the existence of a negative effect between growth opportunity, leverage, and debt maturity as one of the efforts in controlling the agency conflict between stockholders and bondholders. By using panel data regression model and data observation for over six years, this studies found that firms with high growth opportunity tend to use low leverage policies with short maturity to control the agency conflict between stockholders and bondholders. On the other hand, firms with low growth opportunity tend to use higher leverage policies with a longer period of debt maturity. Moreover, covenant as a moderating variable, could lower the negative relation between growth opportunity and leverage, but it could not diminish the negative relation between growth opportunity and debt maturity. Debt maturity and covenant also could not be use as substitution variable to lessen the agency conflict.Keywords: growth opportunity, leverage, debt maturity, covenant, stockholders and bondholders conflicts.JEL Classification: D92, G31
KETANGGUHAN APBN DALAM PEMBAYARAN UTANG
Authors: Kuncoro Haryo
Published: January 2017

This paper is designed to analyze the sustainability of the central government budget in the case of Indonesia over the period of 1999-2009. First, we explore the theoretical background of the fiscal sustainability. Second, we develop a model to capture some factors determining the fiscal sustainability. Unlike the previous studies, we use both domestic debt and foreign debt to assess the fiscal solvency. Finally, we estimate it empirically.Based on the quarterly data analysis, we concluded that the government budget is unsustainable. This is associated with domestic debt rather than foreign debt. They imply that the central government should manage the debts carefully including re-profile, re-schedule, and re-structure them in order to spread the excess burden in the future. Also, the fiscal risks should be calculated comprehensively in order to maintain solvency.Keywords: Domestic debt, Foreign debt, Fiscal sustainability, Primary balanceJEL Classification: E62, H63
QUARTERLY ANALYSIS: The Progress of Monetary, Banking and Payment System Quarter I - 2011
Authors: Bank Indonesia Author Team of Quarterly Report
Published: January 2017

The Board of Governors Meeting (Rapat Dewan Gubernur/RDG) of Bank Indonesia on 12 April 2011 has decided to maintain the BI rate by 6.75%. This decision does not change the direction of Bank Indonesia's monetary policy which tends to be strict in an effort to control the inflationary pressures that are still high, amid the government efforts to reduce inflationary pressure from volatile foods group. The Board of Governors considered that the strengthening of the rupiah so far can reduce these inflationary pressures, particularly from the rising price of international commodities (imported inflation). In addition, to minimize the negative impact of short-term foreign capital flows on monetary stability and financial system, the Board of Governors also has decided to replace the one-month holding period on SBI to six-month holding period, which shall take effect on May 13, 2011. Looking ahead, Bank Indonesia assessed that the possibility of the BI rate level adjustment is still open to dampen the incoming inflationary pressures. Bank Indonesia believed that the implementation of monetary and macro-prudential policy mix, supported also by the strengthened coordination of government policy, will be able to maintain the macroeconomic stability and bring inflation to the target, which are 5% ± 1%  in 2011 and 4.5% ± 1% in 2012.
LONG-RUN MONEY AND INFLATION NEUTRALITY TEST IN INDONESIA
Authors: Arintoko Arintoko
Published: January 2017

This paper investigates long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Indonesia, with due consideration to the order of integration, exogeneity, and cointegration of the money stock-real output and the money stock-price, using annual time-series data. The Fisher-Seater methodology is used to do the task in this research. The empirical results indicate that evidence rejected the long-run neutrality of money (both defined as M1 and M2) with respect to real GDP, showing that it is inconsistent with the classical and neoclassical economics. However, the positive link between the money and price in long run holds for money defined as M1 rather than M2, which consistent with these theories. In particular, besides the positive effect to long-run inflation, monetary expansions have long-run positive effect on real output in the Indonesian economy.JEL Classification: C32, E31, E51Keywords: long-run neutrality of money, inflation, unit root, exogeneity, cointegration
ANALISIS TRIWULANAN: Perkembangan Moneter, Perbankan dan Sistem Pembayaran, Triwulan III – 2011
Authors: Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan
Published: January 2017

Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) Bank Indonesia pada tanggal 11 Oktober 2011 memutuskan untuk menurunkan BI Rate sebesar 25 bps menjadi 6,50%. Bank Indonesia juga akan tetap menempuh langkah-langkah stabilisasi nilai tukar rupiah khususnya dari dampak gejolak pasar keuangan global. Keputusan ini diambil sejalan dengan keyakinan Bank Indonesia bahwa inflasi pada akhir tahun ini maupun tahun depan akan berada di bawah 5%. Selain itu, langkah-langkah tersebut ditempuh sebagai antisipasi untuk memitigasi dampak penurunan kinerja ekonomi dan keuangan global terhadap kinerja perekonomian Indonesia. Ke depan, Dewan Gubernur akan terus mencermati perkembangan ekonomi dan keuangan global serta menempuh respons suku bunga serta bauran kebijakan moneter dan makroprudensial lainnya untuk memitigasi potensi penurunan kinerja perekonomian Indonesia tersebut dengan tetap mengutamakan pencapaian sasaran inflasi, yaitu 5%±1% pada tahun 2011 dan 4,5%±1% pada tahun 2012.
COMPETITIVE CONDITIONS IN BANKING INDUSTRY: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE CONSOLIDATION, COMPETITION AND CONCENTRATION IN THE INDONESIA BANKING INDUSTRY BETWEEN 2001 AND 2009
Authors: Mulyaningsih Tri , Daly Anne
Published: January 2017

Few large banks dominate the Indonesia banking industri. Furthermore, in the past ten years, there were a series of mergers and acquisitions in the banking market. The facts cause implications on competition. In this paper, we examine these issues exploiting an unconsolidated annual financial report of all commercial banks between 2001 and 2009. The Panzar-Rose method is employed to examine the banks behavior in competition. Estimates indicate that banks in all three subsamples, large; medium-sized and small are working in a monopolistically competitive market. The analysis of market concentration supports the conventional view that concentration impairs competition. The study shows that the most competitive market was the medium-sized banks because it was least concentrated. In contrast, the large market was more concentrated thus it was less competitive. The consolidation policies driven by the Central Bank reduced market concentration because mergers and acquisitions were mostly conducted by the mediumsized and small banks. Further the improvement of market share distribution and the increasing capacity of the merging banks enhanced competition in the Indonesia banking industry. JEL Classification: D43, G21Keywords: Banking, market competition, market structure
ALUR TRANSMISI DAN EFEKTIFITAS KEBIJAKAN MONETER GANDA DI INDONESIA
Authors: Ascarya Ascarya
Published: January 2017

This study aims to investigate transmission mechanism of dual monetary system from conventional and Islamic policy rates to inflation and output using Granger and VAR methods on monthly Indonesian banking data form January 2003 to December 2009. The result shows that conventional transmission mechanismsfrom conventional policy rate are all linked tooutput and inflation, while Islamic policy rate are not linked to output and inflation.In addition, the interest rate, credit and conventional interbank rate shocks give negative and permanent impacts to inflation and output, while PLS, financing and Islamic interbank PLS, as well as SBIS(Central Bank Shariah Certificate) as Islamic policy rate shocks give positive and permanent impacts to inflation and output. SBI (Central Bank Certificate) as conventional policy givespositive impact to inflation and negative impact to output.Keywords: Monetary transmission mechanism, Interest rate pass through, Conventional Banking, Islamic BankingJEL Classification: E43, E52, G21, G28
ANALISA TINGKAT EFISIENSI SEKTORAL DAN RESPON KEBIJAKAN EKONOMI SEKTORAL DI DAERAH
Authors: Ikram M. Abdul Majid , Prasmuko Andry , Anugerah Donni Fajar , Kurniati Ina Nurmalia
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the contributon of primary input; capital anda labor, on sectoral performance in Indonesia. The analysis cover sall sectors both in national and regional level, and also the dynamic of input efficiency across period. Using stochastic frontier production function approach, this paper found the aggregate share of capital is 0.20 and 0.34 for labor; conforming the dominance of labor. The highest three technical efficiency is Mining sector (88.65%), Manufacture (70.47%) and Financial (65.93%), while the lowest one is Electric, Gas and Water (25.38%).Keywords: efficiency, stochastic frontier, productivity, Indonesia.JEL Classification: D24, J24, O18
ANALISIS TRIWULAN II - 2012
Authors: Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan
Published: January 2017

Di tengah meningkatnya ketidakpastian perekonomian global, ekonomi Indonesia masih mampu tumbuh tinggi mencapai 6,4% (yoy). Sumber utama pertumbuhan ekonomi tersebut berasal dari permintaan domestik yaitu konsumsi rumah tangga dan investasi yang meningkat.Konsumsi rumah tangga yang masih kuat tersebut sejalan dengan optimisme keyakinan konsumen dan terjaganya daya beli konsumen yang terindikasi dari masih tingginya penjualan eceran. Tetap tingginya konsumsi rumah tangga dan iklim usaha yang kondusif mendorong meningkatnya pertumbuhan investasi. Kondisi ini diperkuat oleh optimisme pelaku usaha. Sementara itu, pertumbuhan ekspor melambat cukup tajam akibat tekanan perlambatan perekonomian global yang berdampak pada menurunnya daya serap negara mitra dagang utama dan rendahnya harga komoditas. Di sisi lain, laju impor semakin kuat seiring dengan meningkatnya aktivitas investasi, terutama investasi mesin dan perlengkapan serta alat angkut. Ke depan, prospek ekonomi Indonesia keseluruhan 2012 masih tetap kuat pada kisaran 6,3- 6,7%, meskipun berbagai faktor risiko masih tetap perlu diwaspadai.
IMPACT OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL SHOCK TO INTERNATIONAL BANK LENDING IN INDONESIA
Authors: Silalahi Tumpak , Wibowo Wahyu Ari , Nurlian Linda
Published: January 2017

This study intends to determine whether a shock that occurred in developed countries, the source of funding, was transmitted to Indonesia through international bank lending both directly and indirectly. The methods used estimated the determinants of international bank lending. International bank lending is one form of capital flows that have the potential for rapid reversal and that can lead to a financial crisis as it has in the past. Understanding the determinants of bank lending is important as it can be used to mitigate the impact of a financial crisis in the future. The empirical results showed that international bank lending, either directly or indirectly, contributed to the Indonesian crisis. During the shock, Indonesia saw global banking contract financing. It was also found that credit activities by foreign affiliates in Indonesia saw a contraction in the country of the parent bank during the shock. However, it was found that the bank lending by foreign affiliates, as joint ventureswere more stable compared to the branch offices of a foreign bank. In aggregate, international bank lending is affected by push and pulls factors such as economic growth (in developed countries and Indonesia), risk factors, and liquidity conditions, both in Indonesia and globally. As for micro-banking models, other than the push and pull factors, the bank balance sheet and other portfolio assets also affected bank lending activities to Indonesia. Keywords: Global Financial Shocks, Foreign Affiliates, International Bank Lending, transmission path,dynamic panel.JEL Classification: C33, E51, G15
KRISIS KEUANGAN GLOBAL DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: ANALISA DARI PEREKONOMIAN ASIA TIMUR
Authors: Raz Arisyi F , Indra Tamarind P.K , Artikasih Dea K
Published: January 2017

Sejalan dengan semakin terintegrasinya perekonomian di tengah eraglobalisasi, krisis keuangan yang terjadi pada suatu negara dapat dengan mudah menyebar ke negara-negara lain dan menjadi bencana keuangan global dalam kurun waktu yang singkat. Pada kejadian semacam ini, fundamental ekonomi yang kuat sangat penting untuk mempertahankan suatu negara dari efek krisis yang “menular”. Sebagai bukti, karena fundamental ekonomi yang rapuh dan kurangnya kredibilitas pemerintah, perekonomian Asia Timur dapat diserang dengan mudah oleh krisis pada tahun 1997 begitu kepercayaan pasarmemburuk. Namun demikian, Asia Timurini telah belajar banyak dari kejadian pada tahun 1997 tersebut sehingga dapat membuktikan ketahanannya dalam menghadapi krisis keuangan global yang melanda pada tahun 2008 dengan meningkatkan fundamental ekonominya serta kredibilitas para pembuat kebijakan. Makalah ini dimulai dengan teori tentang pertumbuhan ekonomi dan krisis keuangan. Selanjutnya, secara empiris menguji sejauh mana krisis keuangan pada tahun 1997 dan 2008 mempengaruhi perekonomian Asia Timur dengan menggunakan data panel ekonometri. Bukti menunjukkan bahwa, meskipun kedua krisis telah memberikan dampak buruk pada perekonomian Asia Timur, gelombang krisis 2008 relatif tidak lebih parah daripada krisis tahun 1997. Akhirnya, penelitian ini juga memberikan penjelasan lebih lanjut tentang bagaimana perekonomian Asia Timur telah berhasil meminimalkan dampak krisis global pada tahun 2008.Kata kunci: Krisis Keuangan Global; Ekonomi Asia Timur, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Pasar Finansial, Efek Acak dan TetapJEL Classification: C330, E440, G010
Capital Flows in Indonesia: the Behavior, the Role, and Its Optimality Uses for the Economy
Authors: Indawan Fiskara , Fitriani Sri , Permata Meily Ika , Karlina Indriani
Published: January 2017

The abundance of global liquidity post the global crisis resulted in a huge amount of international capital flows to Government Securities (GS) market. Besides useful, the flow of foreign capital potentially give a risk reversal that may leads to instability in domestic financial market. This paper analyzes the determinant of foreign investors including the risk and returns, both from domestic (pull factor) as well as from global (push factor). The result shows that the push factor was instrumentally influence the behavior of foreign investors in the GS (Government Securities) market. For long-term investors, their behavior to place their funds in GS market is influenced by push factor, but not significantly affected by the pull factor. However, for short-term investors, both pull and push factors influence their investment decisions. In addition simulation results indicate that in the future, the prospect of foreign investors in the securities market still faces challenges, particularly from the relatively high volatility as a result of the shock sensitivity of foreign investors on shock that can happen in the uncertainty in the international financial markets due to ongoing debt crisis resolution in developed countries.Concerning these findings, Bank Indonesia and the government needs to maintain and manage the returns and risks of domestic investment on a more competitive and relatively low level by maintaining the strength and resilience of the domestic economy and financial stability. Keywords : Foreign Exchange, International Lending, Corporate Finance.JEL Classification : F31, F34, G3
The Impact of US Crisis on Trade and Stock Market in Indonesia
Authors: Nezky Mita
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the impact of the financial crisis in United States 2008 on Indonesia’s economy, by using Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model of 5 variables; Dow Jones Industrial Average, exchange rate, composite stock price index (IHSG), production index and trade tax income. The result shows that the US crisis affects the capital market in Indonesia where the Dow Jones Industrial Average plays greater role in explaining the IHSG, compared to Rupiah rate, production index and the trade income tax. In addition, the US crisis affects the volume and the trade income tax in Indonesia. These empirical results bring policy implication for Bappepam-LK as stock market regulator to intervene or to suspend the trade when the volatility exceeds the psychological threshold. It also emphasizes the necessity to diversify the export country destination and to increase the quality and the value added of Indonesian export. Keywords : US Crisis, stock market, trade, SVAR.JEL Classification : G18
THE EFFECT OF CENTRAL BANK INDEPENDENCE ON PRICE STABILITY: THE CASE OF INDONESIA
Authors: Andriani Yessy , Gai Prasanna
Published: January 2017

This paper investigates the relationship between central bank independence (CBI) and inflation in Indonesia during 1970-2006. Using partial adjustment Ordinary Least Square (OLS) and Engel Granger Error Correction Model, the result shows that legal CBI index inversely affect the inflation, while the turnover of governor is not significant. This result emphasizes Bank Indonesia to strengthen its independency in order to achieve his inflation target. Keywords: Central bank independency, Inflation, Error Correction Model.JEL Classification : C32, E58
DAMPAK PEMBATASAN IMPOR HORTIKULTURA TERHADAP AKTIVITAS PEREKONOMIAN, TINGKAT HARGA DAN KESEJAHTERAAN
Authors: Winardi Wisnu
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the impact of entry ports reduction on horticultural production on the economic activities, prices and also toward social welfare by using Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model. The simulation shows higher import restriction on horticultural products will not only increase the factor income (at current value), but will also increase the composite prices. The higher effect of the latter leads to social welfare reduction, but on the other hand favors the agriculture household types. This finding shows import restriction on horticulture product serves as income redistribution policy instrument. With regard to this, the monetary authority should take the issue into account, especially in order to anticipate the effect of composite prices increase, which could lead to the need of extra efforts in managing price stability. Keywords: import reduction; prices, inflation, CGE; social welfare; income distribution.JEL Classification: E25, E27
PENGARUH PROFITABILITAS, GROWTH OPPORTUNITY, STRUKTUR MODAL TERHADAP NILAI PERUSAHAAN PADA PERUSAHAAN PUBLIK DI INDONESIA
Authors: Hermuningsih Sri
Published: January 2017

This paper examines the influence of profitability, growth opportunity, and capital structure on firm value. We apply Structural Equation Model (SEM) on 150 listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2006 to 2010. The result shows that profitability, growth opportunity and capital structure positively and significanctly affect the company’s value. Secondly, the capital structure intervene the effect of growth profitability on company’s value, but not for profitability. Keywords: profitability, growth opportunitiy, capital structure, firm value, SEM.JEL Classification: C51, G32, L25
Efficiency of Islamic Banks Using Two Stage Approach of Data Envelopment Analysis
Authors: Firdaus Muhammad Faza , Hosen Muhamad Nadratuzzaman
Published: January 2017

The aim of this study is to measure the efficiency of Islamic Bank in Indonesia, to analyze the factors that affect the level of efficiency which is known as Two-Stage Data Envelopment Analysis method and to propose measurement of Bank Soundness with modified CAMELS. The objects of this study are 10 (ten) Islamic Bank (BUS) in Indonesia which analyzes from the second Quarter of 2010 until the fourth Quarter of 2012. There are 2 (two) methods which are used in this study, namely non-parametric method of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) on the first stage and Tobit model on the second stage. In addition, this study will illustrate the formulation of the financial factors of CAELS instead of CAMEL by integrating the results of efficiency level measurement using DEA in CAELS formulation. Overall, the results, show that the efficiency level of Islamic banks in Indonesia during the time period in this study, have not yet reach the optimum level of efficiency. In addition, modification of CAELS for the bank performance level method by integrating the result of DEA shows that the modification of CAELS could be more accurate in describing the bank performance level, particularly for Islamic Bank in Indonesia. Keywords: Efficiency, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Tobit Model, CAELS + DEAJEL Classification: C02, C14, C54,G21
RISIKO TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA DI PASAR KEUANGAN TURKI PADA PERIODE WAKTU YANG BERBEDA
Authors: Özdemir Durmus , Schmidbauer Harald
Published: January 2017

A Measuring the risk associated with interest rates is important since it is beneficial in taking measures before negative effects can take place in an economy. We obtain a risk measure for interest rates by fitting the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to positive extreme day-to-day changes of the interest rate, using data from the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) Second Hand Bond Market, namely Government Bond interest rate closing quotations, for the time period 2001 through 2009. Although the use of the GPD in the context of absolute interest rates is well  ocumented in literature, our approach is different insofar and contributes to the literature as changes in interest rates constitute the target of our analysis, reflecting the idea that risk arises from abrupt changes in interest rate rather than in interest rate levels themselves. Our study clearly shows that the GPD, when applied to interest rate changes, provides a good tool for interest rate risk assessment, and permit a period-specific risk evaluation.  Keyword: Interest rate risk; covered interest parity; Turkey; generalized Pareto distribution JEL Classification: G1; C1
INTEREST RATE RISK IN TURKISH FINANCIAL MARKETS ACROSS DIFFERENT TIME PERIODS
Authors: Özdemir Durmus , Schmidbauer Harald
Published: January 2017

A Measuring the risk associated with interest rates is important since it is beneficial in taking measures before negative effects can take place in an economy. We obtain a risk measure for interest rates by fitting the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) to positive extreme day-to-day changes of the interest rate, using data from the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) Second Hand Bond Market, namely Government Bond interest rate closing quotations, for the time period 2001 through 2009. Although the use of the GPD in the context of absolute interest rates is well  ocumented in literature, our approach is different insofar and contributes to the literature as changes in interest rates constitute the target of our analysis, reflecting the idea that risk arises from abrupt changes in interest rate rather than in interest rate levels themselves. Our study clearly shows that the GPD, when applied to interest rate changes, provides a good tool for interest rate risk assessment, and permit a period-specific risk evaluation.  Keyword: Interest rate risk; covered interest parity; Turkey; generalized Pareto distributionJEL Classification: G1; C1
Fund Management And the Liquidity of The Bank
Authors: Wuryandani Gantiah , Ginting Ramlan , Iskandar Dudy , Sitompul Zulkarnain
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the liquidity of banks, both precautionary and involuntary liquidity. We apply dynamic panel estimation on individual bank data covering the period of Januari 2002 to November 2011.  The result shows that precautionary liquidity is more determined by the operation of the bank. On the other hand, the involuntary liquidity is more affected by the financial system condition. Related to the size, the  effect of the financial system condition and the macroeconomy is larger for the small banks. Moreover, the monetary policy in the form minimum reserve requirement affects the precautionary liquidity of the small banks; while the central bank rate is less influential to the bank liquidity.  Keywords: Banking, Liquidity, General Method of MomentJEL classification: G21, G11, C33
THE DYNAMICS OF TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY OFMEDIUM AND LARGE MANUFACTURING IN INDONESIA
Authors: Surjaningsih Ndari , Permono Bayu Panji
Published: January 2017

This paper calculates and decomposes the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) for large and medium scale industry in Indonesia covering the period of 2000-2009. By using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)  method, the result shows there is a shift of the supporting factors on the growth of TFP on manufacturing sector within the 2 (two) sample period. In the period of 2000-2004, efficiency change becomes the main contributor on the growth of TFP. Whereas in the period of 2005-2009, technical change becomes the main supporting factor of TFP,however it goes along with the growth of negative efficiency change or the decline of the company’s catching-up effect ability to adapt with the more advance technology. The grouping of the sample across subsectors, technical change and also efficiency change shows the declining amount of manufacture industry with superior productivity. Furthermore, the number of low and weakening catching-up industry is increasing.  Keywords: Indonesian manufacturing, total factor productivity, technical change, efficiency change, economic scale change, Data Envelopment AnalysisJEL Classification: L6, M11
ANALISIS TRIWULAN II - 2014
Authors: Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan
Published: January 2017

Perekonomian Indonesia pada triwulan II 2014 menunjukkan bahwa proses penyesuaian struktur perekonomian ke arah yang lebih seimbang masih terus berlangsung dengan ditopang oleh stabilitas makro ekonomi yang tetap terjaga. Kondisi ini tercermin dari permintaan domestik yang terkendali dan inflasi yang berada dalam tren menurun, meskipun defisit transaksi berjalan meningkat antara lain karena pola musiman triwulan II 2014. Walaupun mengalami peningkatan defisit dibanding triwulan sebelumnya akibat pola musiman, kinerja transaksi berjalan triwulan II 2014 lebih baik dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya. Sementara itu, stabilitas sistem keuangan masih solid ditopang oleh ketahanan sistem perbankan dan relatif terjaganya kinerja pasar keuangan. Di sisi lain, sistem pembayaran juga berjalan lancar dalam menopang perekonomian
PENGARUH INFRASTRUKTUR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA
Authors: Maryaningsih Novi , Hermansyah Oki , Savitri Myrnawati
Published: January 2017

The disparity on per capita income is evident between Java and outside Java in Indonesia. This paper confirms this evidence using σ-convergence statistic. Furthermore, this paper identify the determinant of per capita income by adopting the Solow growth model and β-convergence model. The result emphasize confirms the availability of basic infrastructure including electricity, road and sea transport are a necessary condition to gain high and sustainable growth. In addition, the result shows the existence of β-convergence, which represents the pace of regions with lower per capita income catching up other regions with higher per capita income, in Indonesia with 1,75% speed of convergence; or equivalent with half-life of 41.14 years. Furthermore, the openness will increase the region’s productivity due to higher technology spillover. Keywords: σ-convergence, β-convergence, Solow growth model, income distribution, Gini coefficient,disparity.JEL Classification: O47, O11, O18, R11
PENGARUH MISALIGNMENT NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP KEBIJAKAN SAFEGUARDS DI ASEAN-5
Authors: Vindayani Dila , Hakim Dedi Budiman , Asmara Alla
Published: January 2017

The purposes of this study are to analyze the occurence of exchange rate misalignment and its effect on non-tariff policy in ASEAN-5. We use Panel Dynamic OLS to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate, while for determining the opportunities of the Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) such as safeguards measures;we use Conditional Fixed-Effects Logistic Regression. The results shows that the magnitude of exchange rate misalignment tends to be large when specific country has a domestic turmoil. In addition, undervalued currrency of exporting country will increase the chances of safeguards measures enforcement from partner countries.
ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PREDIKSI PERINGKAT OBLIGASI
Authors: Andry Wydia
Published: January 2017

The current paper analyze the prediction of the obligation rating and how they are ditermined. Unlike the previous studies, we include both the accounting and the non-accounting factors, and test the explanatory power of the following six variables: (1) the growth , (2) the size (3) the sinking fund, (4) the risk (with or without guarantee), (5) the maturity structure and, (6) the auditor’s judgement.The data consists of the bank and the financial firms listed in Jakarta Stock Exchange and Surabaya Stock Exchange. As the endogenous variable is discrete, we apply the probit regression model on the data and test how the six exogenous variable above can influence the rating of obligation. The results indicates that in general, the obligation of Indonesian firms are investment grade. The study also conform the significance of the growth, the sinking fund, the maturity and the auditor, while the size and the risk are both insignificant to predict the rating of obligation.Key words: : Rating obligation, growth, size, sinking fund, risk, maturity, logif regression.JEL Classification: E43, E44, G11
NILAI TUKAR DAN TRADE FLOWS
Authors: Astiyah Siti , Santoso M. Setyawan
Published: January 2017

The paper is testing the Marshal-Lernercondition and the J-Curvephenomenon on the Indonesian trade. We apply the panel regression model and anlyze the impact of the real depreciation of Rupiah on the trade performance, both in the short run and in the long run.The study indicates the insignificant of the Rupiah real depreciation to boost the export performance in the short run. When the time horizon is long enough, the increase of the export caused by the depreciation, will offset the increase of the import, hence in the long run the real depreciation of Rupiah may significantly increase the trade performance, but still in a small number.The implication is clear for the policy maker; ifthe aim of the policy is to boost the trade performance, then the exchange rate policy should not be an alternative, rather using policy to increase the productivity, efficiency, product quality management, loose tax policy and the creation of the business climate. This includes the industrial re-structuring to lower the import dependences.JEL Classification: C23, F14Keywords: J-Curve, Marshal-Lerner, trade, exchange rate, panel regression
Pengaruh Perubahan Nilai Tukar Rupiah Terhadap Neraca Transaksi Berjalan Indonesia, Periode 1990.I – 2004.II (Kasus Indonesia - Amerika Serikat)
Authors: Arintoko Arintoko , Wijaya Faried
Published: January 2017

This research investigates the effects of exchange rate change on the relative current account and real GDP in Indonesia to US. This research provides time series evidence for the period of first quarter of 1990 to second quarter of 2004 under flexibel exchange rate regimes. The analysis is based on a J-Curve theory. First, this research employs unit root, cointegration and Granger causality tests and summarizes the relationships between real exchange rate, the current account, and real GDP. Second, the standard theoretical explanation of the JCurve effect is used to motivate a vector autoregression(VAR) and error correction mechanism(ECM) analysis of real exchange rate change on the relative current account, and real GDP for Indonesia to US. This research finds weak evidence of a J-Curve for the Indonesia current account, in fact these empirical results reject the J-Curve hypothesis. The empirical study finds little evidence that a currency depreciation causes a current account deficits in the short run in Indonesia-US bilateral data and no evidence of a reliable long run effect of exchange rate change on the current account. Interestingly, empirical results show that these evidence are not consistent with the standard theoretical explanation of the J-Curve. Consequently, these empirical results pose a strong challenge for international economic theory and policy.Keywords: exchange rate change, current account, real GDP, and J-Curve theory
ANALISIS TRIWULANAN: Perkembangan Moneter, Perbankan, dan Sistem Pembayaran Triwulan II – 2006
Authors: Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan
Published: January 2017

Perekonomian Indonesia pada triwulan II – 2006 diwarnai oleh pertumbuhan ekonomi yang masih relatif rendah sementara stabilitas makroekonomi tetap terjaga. Masih lambatnya pertumbuhan ekonomi terutama karena rendahnya permintaan domestik yang dipengaruhi oleh belum meningkatnya daya beli masyarakat, belum membaiknya iklim investasi, dan pengeluaran pemerintah yang masih relatif rendah. Pendorong utama pertumbuhan ekonomi pada periode tersebut berasal dari ekspor yang mengalami peningkatan cukup besar. Sementara itu, stabilitas makroekonomi tetap terjaga seperti tercermin pada inflasi yang terus menurun dan nilai tukar yang cenderung menguat. Dengan perkembangan tersebut serta dengan memperhatikan prospek ekonomi moneter ke depan khususnya upaya pencapaian sasaran inflasi untuk tahun 2006 dan 2007 masing-masing sebesar 8% ± 1% dan 6% ± 1%, Dewan Gubernur Bank Indonesia pada tanggal 6 Juli 2006 memutuskan untuk menurunkan tingkat BI Rate sebesar 25 bps menjadi 12,25%.
PENGARUH “KEJUTAN” DARI BERITA MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP PERGERAKAN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH
Authors: Untoro Untoro
Published: January 2017

Salah satu penyebab terjadinya gejolak nilai tukar adalah adanya “kejutan” yang timbul dari perbedaan persepsi dari pelaku pasar dengan pihak otoritas yang bertanggung jawab terhadap data makro ekonomi baik data makro ekonomi Amerika maupun data makro ekonomi Indonesia. “Kejutan” yang terjadi dari setiap pengumuman data makro ekonomi pada dasarnya mencerminkan sentimen pasar atas data makro ekonomi yang dikeluarkan.Dalam kajian menunjukkan bahwa tidak semua berita makro ekonomi menimbulkan “kejutan” yang berdampak kepada gejolak nilai tukar Rupiah. Gejolak nilai tukar Rupiah secara signifikan terjadi ketika diumumkan data makro ekonomi Amerika berupa data GDP, trade balance, dan consumer confidence, serta ketika diumumkannya data makro ekonomi Indonesia yaitu M1, M2, CPI, WPI dan GDP. Terbatasnya data makro ekonomi Amerika yang mempengaruhi gejolak nilai tukar Rupiah, terjadi karena pelaku pasar sudah melakukan antisipasi terhadap besarnya data makro ekonomi yang dimumkan, dimana waktu pelaksanaan pengumuman data makro ekonomi Amerika mengalami perbedaan waktu dengan beroperasinya pasar valas Jakarta.Keywords : nilai tukar, newsJEL Classification : C51, D80, F31
HUBUNGAN KAUSAL DINAMIS ANTARA VARIABEL-VARIABEL MONETER UTAMA DAN OUTPUT: KASUS INDONESIA DI BAWAH SISTEM NILAI TUKAR MENGAMBANG DAN MENGAMBANG TERKENDALI
Authors: Kharie Latif
Published: January 2017

The objective of the study is to analyze the dynamic causal relationship pattern and the characteristic among the primary monetary variables and output under a different exchange rate systems, i.e the floating and managed floating exchange rate system. The model formulated on this study is based on Taylor rule, state contingent rule, and some theories such as monetary transmission mechanism, exchange rate determination, and Keynes’s demand for money and its augmented models.The type of the study is explanatory research. Variables analyzed consists of real interest rates of Sertifikat Bank Indonesia, real money supply, real exchange rates of rupiah to American dollar, prices and real output. The data used was monthly time series. Sources of data are Bank Indonesia, Badan Pusat Statistik and International Monetary Fund reports, and analyzed for two different periods of observation. The vector error correction model is used as a quantitative model, focuses on the impulse response function analysis.The results of impulse response function indicate that: (i) the response of monetary policy to changes of real output and price under the floating exchange rate system is positive, and to changes of real exchange rate and price under the managed floating exchange system is also positive; (ii) the response of price to changes of real interest rate, real money supply, real exchange rate and real output under the floating exchange rate system are negative, negative, positive and negative respectively, whereas under the managed floating exchange rates system are negative, positive, negative and positive respectively; and (iii) the response of real output to change of real interest rate under the floating exchange rates system is positive but it is negative under the managed floating exchange rates system.Keywords: dynamic causal relation, primary monetary variables, output, floating rates system, managed floating exchange rates systemJEL Classification: C32, E52, O24
PEMBAYARAN PINJAMAN LUAR NEGERI KORPORASI DAN PERGERAKAN RUPIAH
Authors: Setiawan Iwan , Indira Diah , Paundralingga Angsoka Yorintha
Published: January 2017

The shifting of the exchange rate regime toward the free floating system in Indonesia, have changed the nature of the Indonesian Rupiah fluctuation, both in its magnitude and direction. Public opinion tends to believe that the high corporate demand on foreign exchange to fulfill their foreign debt repayment is one of the major depreciating factors of the Rupiah against the US dollar.This paper analyzes the response of public opinion by analyzing the effect of corporate foreign debt repayments and their general behavior on the foreign exchange demand and supply. This paper also analyzes the impact of the non-oil and gas imports, the international oil price, the interest rate differential, and the country risk.Based on the survey of selected highly leverage corporates in Indonesia, the result shows a unique dependency of the corporate»s foreign exchange demand and supply on the corporate»s earning characteristics and its business sector orientation. The fact that corporations are virtually in the position of excess demand for foreign exchange have prompted persistent pressure on the Rupiah. Furthermore, using the Johansen Cointegration Test and the Error Correction Model verifies that the corporate foreign debt service merely affects the Rupiah exchange rate in the long-run. In the short-run, the movement of Rupiah is highly affected by other factors such us the global oil price, interest rate differentials, and country risks.Keyword: Debt Service, exchange rate, cointegration, Error Correction Model, Indonesia.JEL Classification:  JEL Classification: F31, F34, H63
Las políticas de implantación del riego localizado. Efectos en las entidades de riego de la Comunidad Valenciana
Authors: Sanchis Ibor Carles , García Mollá Marta , Avellà Reus Llorenç
Published: January 2017

Durante los últimos treinta años, las administraciones públicas y las entidades de riego han efectuado un importante esfuerzo destinado a modernizar los regadíos valencianos. Esta política hidráulica, consecuencia de la adopción de un modelo de gestión de la demanda, se ha materializado en una importante expansión del riego por goteo. El artículo analiza, a partir de diversas entrevistas, los efectos de la modernización sobre unas entidades de riego que han experimentado cambios en la eficiencia del riego, organización, usos y costos de agua.
Ocupación antrópica y riesgos de inundación en la llanura del río Guadalquivir (sector Palma del Río-Sevilla, España)
Authors: Baena Escudero Rafael , Guerrero Amador Inmaculada , García Martínez Belén , Posada Simeón J. Carlos
Published: January 2017

Se presenta la ocupación antrópica de la llanura de inundación del Guadalquivir desde época histórica. Con ello se pone de manifiesto la falta de una planificación integrada frente al riesgo de inundación de la misma desde mediados del siglo XX hasta la actualidad. Esta situación genera cambios geomorfológicos irreversibles en el cauce y un comportamiento diferenciado en el riesgo potencial de inundación. En la ciudad de Sevilla, las intervenciones estructurales unidas a la incisión del cauce permiten evacuar las crecidas para magnitudes inferiores a 3.500 m3/s. Aguas arriba de Cantillana, la colmatación del cauce vinculada a la presa, la convergencia de afluentes regulados y la expansión urbana, provocan en la actualidad riesgos de inundación en zonas históricamente no inundables para estos caudales.
Effectiveness of Natural Apophyseal Glides Versus Grade I and II Maitland Mobilization in Non Specific Neck Pain
Authors: Hussain Shahzada Iftikhar , Ahmad Ashfaq , Amjad Freaha , Shafi Tariq , Shahid Hassan Anjum
Published: January 2017

Abstract

Background and Introduction:  Mechanical mal-function of cervical spine is the usual cause of neck pain. Even though varied procedures have been suggested for maximizing neck movements and decreasing neck pain but mobilization of joints has been validated the most efficacious technique. The outcome of two manual therapy procedures i.e. Mulligan natural apophyseal glides and grade I and II Maitland mobilization in non-specific neck pain to reduce pain and recovery of function had been assimilated in this recent research.

Methods:  It was a single blinded randomized control clinical trial. 50 patients having NSNP were chosen via simple number table and arranged into two groups as guided by CONSORT (Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials) guidelines. In group A Mulligan mobilization NAGS was applied and in group B Grade 1 and II Maitland mobilizations were applied. Both groups also received conventional therapy Ultrasonic Therapy (ITO US – 100) in Continuous mode, frequency 1MHz, intensity 1.0 W/cm2 with 70% for 5 minutes and Short wave diathermy (ENRAF NONIUS Curaplus 970) in co-planer, continuous mode, frequency 27.12 MHz, wavelength 11 meters, for 15 minutes. Therapy was offered 4 times a week for absolute
 4 weeks. Pain, disability were evaluated by NPRS (Numeric pain rating scale), NDI (neck disability index) scale. Assessment was done at 0, after 2 and 4 weeks of treatment. Independent-Sample T Test was applied. Level of significance was set at 0.05% rank.

Results:  The results exhibited that The P-value for NDI in group A using Mulligan mobilization NAGS was 0.018 and for NPRS was 0.014 after four weeks of treatment which was less than the level of significance 0.05. So Mulligan mobilization NAGS was more effective than Grade 1 and II Maitland mobilization in nonspecific neck pain to decrease pain and restoration of function.

Conclusion:  It was concluded that mobilization of Mulligan i.e. NAGS was more effective compared with mobilization of Maitland in Grade 1 and II in progressing NPRS and NDI scores in sufferers with nonspecific neck pain.

Key Words:  Nonspecific neck pain, Maitland mobilization, Mulligan mobilization, NPRS, NDI.
Instructional Strategies to Manage Cognitive Load in Orthodontics
Authors: Asad Saad
Published: January 2017

Abstract

Introduction: Medical Education has recently taken its position in Health professional education, however still it is not very popular in Dentistry, though professional are working hard to apply its principals. In the recent past Orthodontic education has been revolutionized and instructional strategies and designs to reduce the cognitive load and improve learner’s germane load have been employed. However literature discusses educationist`s perspective while student`s perspective regarding this have not been explored much. Aim of this study is to assess student`s perspective about different instructional strategies discussed through examples used to manage cognitive load in Orthodontic Education.

Materials and Method:  The study was conducted through a 14 instrument questionnaire on a sample consisted of Sixty Six final year BDS students (12 males and 44 females) from University College of Dentistry, The University of Lahore.

Results: Student`s perspective through orthodontic examples for instructional strategies to manage cognitive load was assessed. Dental students reported positively to all questions in the questionnaire except the question regarding Goal free principle.

Results:  Different instructional strategies to reduce extrinsic load, manage intrinsic load and optimize germane load through examples from orthodontic syllabi have been given.

Conclusion:  Student`s perspective as assessed thro-ugh questionnaire is mostly in accordance with the literature, except for goal free principle where only 25.75% student responded that this instructional strategy will improve learning.