Underlying and proximate drivers of biodiversity changes in Mesoamerican biosphere reserves
Authors: Auliz-Ortiz Daniel Martín , Benítez-Malvido Julieta , Arroyo-Rodríguez Víctor , Dirzo Rodolfo , Pérez-Farrera Miguel Ángel , Luna-Reyes Roberto , Mendoza Eduardo , Álvarez-Añorve Mariana Yólotl , Álvarez-Sánchez Javier , Arias-Ataide Dulce María , Ávila-Cabadilla Luis Daniel , Botello Francisco , Braasch Marco , Casas Alejandro , Campos-Villanueva Delfino Álvaro , Cedeño-Vázquez José Rogelio , Chávez-Tovar José Cuauhtémoc , Coates Rosamond , Dechnik-Vázquez Yanus , del Coro Arizmendi María , Dias Pedro Américo , Dorado Oscar , Enríquez Paula , Escalona-Segura Griselda , Farías-González Verónica , Favila Mario E. , García Andrés , García-Morales Leccinum Jesús , Gavito-Pérez Fernando , Gómez-Domínguez Héctor , González-García Fernando , González-Zamora Arturo , Cuevas-Guzmán Ramón , Haro-Belchez Enrique , Hernández-Huerta Arturo Heriberto , Hernández-Ordoñez Omar , Horváth Anna , Ibarra-Manríquez Guillermo , Lavín-Murcio Pablo Antonio , Lira-Saade Rafael , López-Díaz Karime , MacSwiney G. M. Cristina , Mandujano Salvador , Martínez-Camilo Rubén , Martínez-Ávalos José Guadalupe , Martínez-Meléndez Nayely , Monroy-Ojeda Alan , Mora Francisco , Mora-Olivo Arturo , Muench Carlos , Peña-Mondragón Juan L. , Percino-Daniel Ruth , Ramírez-Marcial Neptalí , Reyna-Hurtado Rafael , Rodríguez-Ruíz Erick Rubén , Sánchez-Cordero Víctor , Suazo-Ortuño Ireri , Terán-Juárez Sergio Alejandro , Valdivieso-Pérez Ingrid Abril , Valencia Vivian , Valenzuela-Galván David , Vargas-Contreras Jorge Albino , Vázquez-Pérez José Raúl , Vega-Rivera Jorge Humberto , Venegas-Barrera Crystian Sadiel , Martínez-Ramos Miguel 
Published: January 2024

Protected areas are of paramount relevance to conserving wildlife and ecosystem contributions to people. Yet, their conservation success is increasingly threatened by human activities including habitat loss, climate change, pollution, and species overexploitation. Thus, understanding the underlying and proximate drivers of anthropogenic threats is urgently needed to improve protected areas’ effectiveness, especially in the biodiversity-rich tropics. We addressed this issue by analyzing expert-provided data on long-term biodiversity change (last three decades) over 14 biosphere reserves from the Mesoamerican Biodiversity Hotspot. Using multivariate analyses and structural equation modeling, we tested the influence of major socioeconomic drivers (demographic, economic, and political factors), spatial indicators of human activities (agriculture expansion and road extension), and forest landscape modifications (forest loss and isolation) as drivers of biodiversity change. We uncovered a significant proliferation of disturbance-tolerant guilds and the loss or decline of disturbance-sensitive guilds within reserves causing a “winner and loser” species replacement over time. Guild change was directly related to forest spatial changes promoted by the expansion of agriculture and roads within reserves. High human population density and low nonfarming occupation were identified as the main underlying drivers of biodiversity change. Our findings suggest that to mitigate anthropogenic threats to biodiversity within biosphere reserves, fostering human population well-being via sustainable, nonfarming livelihood opportunities around reserves is imperative.