bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Crustal deformation and AE monitoring: annual variation and stress-soliton propagation
Authors: Poscolieri M. , Gregori G. P. , Paparo G. , Zanini A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The stress propagation through the crust can be effectively monitored by means of acoustic mission (AE) techniques (ultrasounds). The \\textit{AE} intensity is indicative of the amount of stress that affects some lithospheric and/or crustal slab of some (ultimately unknown) scale size. In principle, such scale size can be different in different areas, as it depends on their respective tectonic setting, by which a variety of prime causes ought to be considered: every cause can eventually prevail over others. Two basic phenomena are here reported. If the crust behaves like a comparatively ideal elastic body, an annual variation is observed, which appears in-phase and correlated, when comparing AE records collected at the Italian site and on the Cephallonia Island. It seems being astronomically modulated, hence it should display a planetary scale. One likely explanation is in terms of the loading tide. Such interpretation can be confirmed by some additional modelling and analysis upon considering the motion of the Sun and of the Moon. A second observed effect refers to the case in which the crust feels the effect of the fatigue that reduces its elastic performance. The phenomenon can be described in terms of stress solitons that cross the area being monitored. They can be unambiguously recognised, and the possibility is therefore envisaged of eventually using them for measuring the propagation speed of stress through the crust over continental or planetary scales. The residuals, with respect to such regularly recognisable effects, of the recorded AE signals are to be investigated in a few subsequent analyses (in progress), as they appear to contain additional relevant physical information, still being much different from any simple random noise. A final recommendation ought therefore to be stressed, for setting up some array of at least a few AE recording stations to be simultaneously operated over some continental scale area and for a few years at least. Their potential applications still appear much promising and to be still focused in their complete, specific, operative and physical details and interpretation.
Marmara Island earthquakes, of 1265 and 1935; Turkey
Authors: Altınok Y. , Alpar B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The long-term seismicity of the Marmara Sea region in northwestern Turkey is relatively well-recorded. Some large and some of the smaller events are clearly associated with fault zones known to be seismically active, which have distinct morphological expressions and have generated damaging earthquakes before and later. Some less common and moderate size earthquakes have occurred in the vicinity of the Marmara Islands in the west Marmara Sea. This paper presents an extended summary of the most important earthquakes that have occurred in 1265 and 1935 and have since been known as the Marmara Island earthquakes. The informative data and the approaches used have therefore the potential of documenting earthquake ruptures of fault segments and may extend the records kept on earthquakes far before known history, rock falls and abnormal sea waves observed during these events, thus improving hazard evaluations and the fundamental understanding of the process of an earthquake.
Volcano Popocatepetl, Mexico: ULF geomagnetic anomalies observed at Tlamacas station during March–July, 2005
Authors: Kotsarenko A. , Grimalsky V. , Pérez Enríquez R. , Valdez-González C. , Koshevaya S. , López Cruz-Abeyro J. A. , Yutsis V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper the first results of ULF (Ultra Low Frequency) geomagnetic anomalies observed at Tlamacas station (Long. 261.37, Lat. 19.07) located at 4 km near the volcano Popocatepetl (active volcano, Long. 261.37, Lat. 19.02) for the period March–July, 2005 and their analysis are presented. The geomagnetic data were collected with a 3-axial fluxgate magnetometer designed at UCLA (University of California, Los Angeles, 1 Hz sampling rate frequency, GPS). Our analysis reveals some anomalies which are suspected to be generated by local volcanic origin: the EM background in the vicinity of the volcano is significantly noisier than in other reference stations; the sporadic strong noise-like geomagnetic activity observed in the H-component; locally generated geomagnetic pulsations (without preferred polarization) are detected only at Tlamacas station.
An observational study of the 7 September 2005 Barcelona tornado outbreak
Authors: Bech J. , Pascual R. , Rigo T. , Pineda N. , López J. M. , Arús J. , Gayà M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper presents an observational study of the tornado outbreak that took place on the 7 September 2005 in the Llobregat delta river, affecting a densely populated and urbanised area and the Barcelona International airport (NE Spain). The site survey confirmed at least five short-lived tornadoes. Four of them were weak (F0, F1) and the other one was significant (F2 on the Fujita scale). They started mostly as waterspouts and moved later inland causing extensive damage estimated in 9 million Euros, three injured people but fortunately no fatalities. Large scale forcing was provided by upper level diffluence and low level warm air advection. Satellite and weather radar images revealed the development of the cells that spawned the waterspouts along a mesoscale convergence line in a highly sheared and relatively low buoyant environment. Further analysis indicated characteristics that could be attributed indistinctively to non-supercell or to mini-supercell thunderstorms.
On the weak impact of the 26 December Indian Ocean tsunami on the Bangladesh coast
Authors: Ioualalen M. , Pelinovsky E. , Asavanant J. , Lipikorn R. , Deschamps A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami damaged severely most of the Gulf of Bengal's coastal areas, but the coast of Bangladesh which stands at the edge of an extraordinarily extended continental shelf. This latter feature has been built through huge discharges of river sediments along the Brahmaputra and Ganges rivers. As a result of this enormous discharge, another interesting feature of the area is the deep underwater Canyon, connected with the estuaries, running NE-SW from 25 km off the coast towards the continental slope. We investigate here how these two geological features may have modified/perturbed the Indian ocean tsunami propagation and impact on the Coast of Bangladesh. For that purpose we have realized an ensemble of numerical simulations based on Funwave Boussinesq numerical model and a validated coseismic source. It is found, at first order, that the extended shallow bathymetric profile of the continental shelf plays a key role in flattening the waveform through a defocussing process while the Canyon delays the process. The wave evolution seems to be related at first order to the bathymetric profile rather than to dynamical processes like nonlinearity, dispersion or bottom friction.
Changing European storm loss potentials under modified climate conditions according to ensemble simulations of the ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM
Authors: Pinto J. G. , Fröhlich E. L. , Leckebusch G. C. , Ulbrich U.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A simple storm loss model is applied to an ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM simulations in order to estimate changes of insured loss potentials over Europe in the 21st century. Losses are computed based on the daily maximum wind speed for each grid point. The calibration of the loss model is performed using wind data from the ERA40-Reanalysis and German loss data. The obtained annual losses for the present climate conditions (20C, three realisations) reproduce the statistical features of the historical insurance loss data for Germany. The climate change experiments correspond to the SRES-Scenarios A1B and A2, and for each of them three realisations are considered. On average, insured loss potentials increase for all analysed European regions at the end of the 21st century. Changes are largest for Germany and France, and lowest for Portugal/Spain. Additionally, the spread between the single realisations is large, ranging e.g. for Germany from −4% to +43% in terms of mean annual loss. Moreover, almost all simulations show an increasing interannual variability of storm damage. This assessment is even more pronounced if no adaptation of building structure to climate change is considered. The increased loss potentials are linked with enhanced values for the high percentiles of surface wind maxima over Western and Central Europe, which in turn are associated with an enhanced number and increased intensity of extreme cyclones over the British Isles and the North Sea.
Field observations of the 17 July 2006 Tsunami in Java
Authors: Lavigne F. , Gomez C. , Giffo M. , Wassmer P. , Hoebreck C. , Mardiatno D. , Prioyono J. , Paris R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The 17 July 2006, a tsunami struck the southern coast of Java, Indonesia, causing over 730 casualties. The triggering earthquake located 225 km off the coast of Pangandaran (9.222° S, 107.320° E), occurred at 15:19 LT (UTC +7) with a 7.7 magnitude on the Richter scale (Harward Center and CEA/DAM). In order to calibrate numerical models and understand the phenomenon, we conducted a 6-weeks field survey in July and August 2006 from Cimerak district in West Java to Gunung Kidul district in Central Java. Data collection involved measurements of wave height before its breaking, flow depth, run-up height, inundation depth, flow directions and a detailed chronology of the tsunami. Eyewitnesses accounted for three main waves. The maximum height of the second wave ranged from 4.2 to 8.6 m before its breaking. Maximum flow depth after the wave's breaking reached 5 m, and maximum runup heights reached 15.7 m. Our run-up values are about 1.5 higher than those obtained by the other field surveys carried out until present. They are also higher than the values computed through preliminary models. The 17 July 2006 tsunami has been generated by a "tsunami earthquake", i.e. an earthquake of low or medium scale that triggers a tsunami of high magnitude. The run-up heights progressively decreased eastwards, which is consistent with a tsunami triggered by fault dislocation, as the one that hit the Nicaragua's coast with similar run-up heights on the 2 September 1992. An earthquake with associated landslides could also have generated the 17 July 2006 tsunami, as ever observed in Papua-New-Guinea in 1998.
On the effects of vertical air velocity on winter precipitation types
Authors: Thériault J. M. , Stewart R. E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The various precipitation types formed within winter storms (such as snow, wet snow and freezing rain) often lead to very hazardous weather conditions. These types of precipitation often occur during the passage of a warm front as a warm air mass ascends over a cold air mass. To address this issue further, we used a one-dimensional kinematic cloud model to simulate this gentle ascent (≤10 cm/s) of warm air. The initial temperature profile has an above 0°C inversion, a lower subfreezing layer, and precipitation falls from above the temperature inversion. The cloud model is coupled to a double-moment microphysics scheme that simulates the production of various types of winter precipitation. The results are compared with those from a previous study carried out in still air. Based on the temporal evolution of surface precipitation, snow reaches the surface significantly faster than in still air whereas other precipitation types including freezing rain and ice pellets have a shorter duration. Overall, even weak background vertical ascent has an important impact on the precipitation reaching the surface, the time of the elimination of the melting layer, and also the evolution of the lower subfreezing layer.
Acoustic emission monitoring of medieval towers considered as sensitive earthquake receptors
Authors: Carpinteri A. , Lacidogna G. , Niccolini G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Many ancient masonry towers are present in Italian territory. In some cases these structures are at risk on account of the intensity of the stresses they are subjected to due to the high level of regional seismicity. In order to preserve this inestimable cultural heritage, a sound safety assessment should take into account the evolution of damage phenomena. In this connection, acoustic emission (AE) monitoring can be highly effective. This study concerns the structural stability of three medieval towers rising in the centre of Alba, a characteristic town in Piedmont (Italy). During the monitoring period a correlation between peaks of AE activity in the masonry of these towers and regional seismicity was found. Earthquakes always affect structural stability. Besides that, the towers behaved as sensitive earthquake receptors. Here a method to correlate bursts of AE activity in a masonry building and regional seismicity is proposed. In particular, this method permits to identify the premonitory signals that precede a catastrophic event on a structure, since, in most cases, these warning signs can be captured well in advance.
Probabilistic forecast of daily areal precipitation focusing on extreme events
Authors: Bliefernicht J. , Bárdossy A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A dynamical downscaling scheme is usually used to provide a short range flood forecasting system with high-resolved precipitation fields. Unfortunately, a single forecast of this scheme has a high uncertainty concerning intensity and location especially during extreme events. Alternatively, statistical downscaling techniques like the analogue method can be used which can supply a probabilistic forecasts. However, the performance of the analogue method is affected by the similarity criterion, which is used to identify similar weather situations. To investigate this issue in this work, three different similarity measures are tested: the euclidean distance (1), the Pearson correlation (2) and a combination of both measures (3). The predictor variables are geopotential height at 1000 and 700 hPa-level and specific humidity fluxes at 700 hPa-level derived from the NCEP/NCAR-reanalysis project. The study is performed for three mesoscale catchments located in the Rhine basin in Germany. It is validated by a jackknife method for a period of 44 years (1958–2001). The ranked probability skill score, the Brier Skill score, the Heidke skill score and the confidence interval of the Cramer association coefficient are calculated to evaluate the system for extreme events. The results show that the combined similarity measure yields the best results in predicting extreme events. However, the confidence interval of the Cramer coefficient indicates that this improvement is only significant compared to the Pearson correlation but not for the euclidean distance. Furthermore, the performance of the presented forecasting system is very low during the summer and new predictors have to be tested to overcome this problem.
Physical vulnerability modelling in natural hazard risk assessment
Authors: Douglas J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. An evaluation of the risk to an exposed element from a hazardous event requires a consideration of the element's vulnerability, which expresses its propensity to suffer damage. This concept allows the assessed level of hazard to be translated to an estimated level of risk and is often used to evaluate the risk from earthquakes and cyclones. However, for other natural perils, such as mass movements, coastal erosion and volcanoes, the incorporation of vulnerability within risk assessment is not well established and consequently quantitative risk estimations are not often made. This impedes the study of the relative contributions from different hazards to the overall risk at a site. Physical vulnerability is poorly modelled for many reasons: the cause of human casualties (from the event itself rather than by building damage); lack of observational data on the hazard, the elements at risk and the induced damage; the complexity of the structural damage mechanisms; the temporal and geographical scales; and the ability to modify the hazard level. Many of these causes are related to the nature of the peril therefore for some hazards, such as coastal erosion, the benefits of considering an element's physical vulnerability may be limited. However, for hazards such as volcanoes and mass movements the modelling of vulnerability should be improved by, for example, following the efforts made in earthquake risk assessment. For example, additional observational data on induced building damage and the hazardous event should be routinely collected and correlated and also numerical modelling of building behaviour during a damaging event should be attempted.
Extremal periodic wave profiles
Authors: van Groesen E. ,   Andonowati
Published: April 2010

Abstract. As a contribution to deterministic investigations into extreme fluid surface waves, in this paper wave profiles of prescribed period that have maximal crest height will be investigated. As constraints the values of the momentum and energy integrals are used in a simplified description with the KdV model. The result is that at the boundary of the feasible region in the momentum-energy plane, the only possible profiles are the well known cnoidal wave profiles. Inside the feasible region the extremal profiles of maximal crest height are "cornered" cnoidal profiles: cnoidal profiles of larger period, cut-off and periodically continued with the prescribed period so that at the maximal crest height a corner results.
Extreme heat and runoff extremes in the Swiss Alps
Authors: Zappa M. , Kan C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The hydrological response of Swiss river basins to the 2003 European summer heatwave was evaluated by a combined analysis of historical discharge records and specific applications of distributed hydrological modeling. In the summer of 2003, the discharge from headwater streams of the Swiss Central Plateau was only 40%–60% of the long-term average. For alpine basins runoff was about 60%–80% of the average. Glacierized basins showed the opposite behavior. According to the degree of glacierization, the average summer runoff was close or even above average. The hydrological model PREVAH was applied for the period 1982–2005. Even if the model was not calibrated for such extreme meteorological conditions, it was well able to simulate the hydrological responses of three basins. The aridity index φ describes feedbacks between hydrological and meteorological anomalies, and was adopted as an indicator of hydrological drought. The anomalies of φ and temperature in the summer of 2003 exceeded the 1982–2005 mean by more than 2 standard deviations. Catchments without glaciers showed negative correlations between φ and discharge R. In basins with about 15% glacierization, φ and R were not correlated. River basins with higher glacier percentages showed a positive correlation between φ and R. Icemelt was positively correlated with φ and reduced the variability of discharge with larger amounts of meltwater. Runoff generation from the non-glaciated sub-areas was limited by high evapotranspiration and reduced precipitation. The 2003 summer heatwave could be a precursor to similar events in the near future. Hydrological models and further data analysis will allow the identification of the most sensitive regions where heatwaves may become a recurrent natural hazard with large environmental, social and economical impacts.
Modelling of weather radar echoes from anomalous propagation using a hybrid parabolic equation method and NWP model data
Authors: Bebbington D. , Rae S. , Bech J. , Codina B. , Picanyol M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Contamination of weather radar echoes by anomalous propagation (anaprop) mechanisms remains a serious issue in quality control of radar precipitation estimates. Although significant progress has been made identifying clutter due to anaprop there is no unique method that solves the question of data reliability without removing genuine data. The work described here relates to the development of a software application that uses a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to obtain the temperature, humidity and pressure fields to calculate the three dimensional structure of the atmospheric refractive index structure, from which a physically based prediction of the incidence of clutter can be made. This technique can be used in conjunction with existing methods for clutter removal by modifying parameters of detectors or filters according to the physical evidence for anomalous propagation conditions. The parabolic equation method (PEM) is a well established technique for solving the equations for beam propagation in a non-uniformly stratified atmosphere, but although intrinsically very efficient, is not sufficiently fast to be practicable for near real-time modelling of clutter over the entire area observed by a typical weather radar. We demonstrate a fast hybrid PEM technique that is capable of providing acceptable results in conjunction with a high-resolution terrain elevation model, using a standard desktop personal computer. We discuss the performance of the method and approaches for the improvement of the model profiles in the lowest levels of the troposphere.
A test for checking earthquake aperiodicity estimates from small samples
Authors: Mucciarelli M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In recent years, many new models for earthquake recurrence were proposed. Some are focusing on the clustering properties on a small time scale, while others try to model the long term behavior of large mainshocks. To this last purpose, there is a growing interest for models that take into account the aperiodicity aiming to a time-dependent hazard estimate. It is well known that a limited number of inter-event times (IETs) may lead to biased values of the distribution parameters. To overcome this problem different solutions were proposed. This paper focuses on two of them: Monte Carlo simulation of the process and aperiodicity estimated via a statistical proxy. The topics discussed are: 1) how many IETs are needed for a correct estimate, 2) to which extent a Poisson distribution is equally able to describe the process, 3) the influence of errors associated to paleoseismological IETs, and 4) the goodness of the success ratio from simulations. A simple test is proposed to discriminate real aperiodicity from apparent aperiodicity coming from undersampling.
Towards a systematic climatology of sensitivities of Mediterranean high impact weather: a contribution based on intense cyclones
Authors: Homar V. , Jansà A. , Campins J. , Genovés A. , Ramis C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. One of the multiple approaches currently explored to mitigate the effects of hydro-meteorological hazardous events aims at improving the numerical weather forecasts. Under an ever increasing societal demand for cost cuts and more precise forecasts, targeted observations are currently receiving great attention within the operational weather community. The MEDEX project (http://medex.inm.uib.es) is aimed at improving the forecasts of high impact weather (HIW) in the Mediterranean and, in particular, proposes the creation of a climatology of sensitivities of such episodes. The construction of a comprehensive climatology of sensitivities is hampered by the lack of an exhaustive collection of Mediterranean HIW events. In this study we contribute with a systematic climatology of Mediterranean intense cyclones. We perform an objective cluster analysis of intense cyclones detected from the ECMWF ERA40 reanalysis using a k-means algorithm and compute the sensitivities for each of the resulting classes. For each cluster, a representative sensitivity field is computed using the MM5 Adjoint Modeling system. The results show that although the sensitive areas for intense Mediterranean cyclones are not particularly confined, it is remarkable how areas poorly sampled by the regular observing networks, such as North Africa, the Mediterranean Sea and the eastern North-Atlantic, are highlighted in the prototype sensitivity maps.
Seismic characterization of pyroclastic flow activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat, 8 January 2007
Authors: De Angelis S. , Bass V. , Hards V. , Ryan G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A partial dome collapse with concurrent pyroclastic flow (PF) activity occurred at Soufrière Hills Volcano (SHV), Montserrat on 8 January 2007. Pyroclastic density currents were observed to propagate from the Northwest and West sectors of the summit dome into the heads of Tyres Ghaut and Gages Valley, respectively. Between 10:00 and 10:15 UTC pyroclastic flows entered Tyres Ghaut and from there descended into the Belham Valley reaching a distance of about 5 km from the source. Pyroclastic flow activity on the Northwest and West side of the edifice continued at high levels over the following 1.5 h, although run-out distances of individual flows did not exceed 1.5 km. Subsequent observations showed that material had been removed from the lower Northwest side of the dome leaving an amphitheatre-like structure cutting through the old crater rim. The seismic waves excited by the propagation of pyroclastic flows were recorded by the Montserrat Volcano Observatory's network of broadband seismometers. The seismic records show the onset of a continuous signal before 09:30 UTC with gradually increasing amplitudes and spectral energy in the 1–8 Hz band. The signal rapidly increased in amplitude and a characteristic spindle-shaped waveform with broadband energy (1–25 Hz) was observed accompanying large PF that descended along the slopes of the volcano. The main phase was followed by a sequence of individual seismic pulses which correlated well with visual observations of PF. PF are a major hazard at SHV and pose significant risk for the population living in the proximity of the volcano. They can occur with little or no warning and have the potential to reach inhabited areas to the Northwest. The study of the seismic activity associated with the generation and propagation of pyroclastic flows can help to identify characteristic precursory seismic sequences providing valuable information to improve the understanding of the hazards posed by the SHV and to allow better warning to be given to the authorities.
Pre-earthquake signals – Part II: Flow of battery currents in the crust
Authors: Freund F. T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. When rocks are subjected to stress, dormant electronic charge carriers are activated. They turn the stressed rock volume into a battery, from where currents can flow out. The charge carriers are electrons and defect electrons, also known as positive holes or pholes for short. The boundary between stressed and unstressed rock acts as a potential barrier that lets pholes pass but blocks electrons. One can distinguish two situations in the Earth's crust: (i) only pholes spread out of a stressed rock volume into the surrounding unstressed rocks. This is expected to lead to a positive surface charge over a wide area around the future epicenter, to perturbations in the ionosphere, to stimulated infrared emission from the ground, to ionization of the near-ground air, to cloud formation and to other phenomena that have been reported to precede major earthquakes. (ii) both pholes and electrons flow out of the stressed rock volume along different paths, sideward into the relatively cool upper layers of the crust and downward into the hot lower crust. This situation, which is likely to be realized late in the earthquake preparation process, is necessary for the battery circuit to close and for transient electric currents to flow. If burst-like, these currents should lead to the emission of low frequency electromagnetic radiation. Understanding how electronic charge carriers are stress-activated in rocks, how they spread or flow probably holds the key to deciphering a wide range of pre-earthquake signals. It opens the door to a global earthquake early warning system, provided resources are pooled through a concerted and constructive community effort, including seismologists, with international participation.
A statistical analysis of electric self-potential time series associated to two 1993 earthquakes in Mexico
Authors: Flores-Márquez L. , Márquez-Cruz J. , Ramírez-Rojas A. , Gálvez-Coyt G. , Angulo-Brown F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Recent studies related with earthquake prediction involve statistical studies of the ground electric self-potential behavior. Published results about the complexity of this kind of processes encourage us to study the statistical behavior of the ground electric self-potential recorded in Guerrero state, Mexico. This region is characterized by high seismicity. The electric self-potential variations were recorded in the Acapulco station directly from the ground. The sampling period was four seconds and the data were stored from March to December of 1993. Two significant earthquakes (EQs) occurred near this station, 15 May and 24 October whose magnitudes were Mw=6.0 and Mw=6.6 respectively. A preliminary processing was carried out consisting of a moving average of the original time series in order to filter the very high frequencies and to complete short lacks of data and outliers. Then, a visual inspection of the complete filtered signal was performed to search some seismic electric signals (SES), which were ambiguously depicted. Subsequently, a detrending of µ=0 was applied with the windows of 3.3, 6.6 and 10 h. Later, the analysis of the spectral exponent β was made, showing changes during the total period examined, and the most evident changes occurred during the preparation mechanism of the Mw=6.6 EQ. Fifteen days before the 24 October EQ, a Brownian-noise like behavior was displayed (β≈2), having a duration of about two days. In addition a Higuchi fractal method and wavelet analysis were made confirming the presence of the β-anomaly.
Tsunami vulnerability of buildings and people in South Java – field observations after the July 2006 Java tsunami
Authors: Reese S. , Cousins W. J. , Power W. L. , Palmer N. G. , Tejakusuma I. G. , Nugrahadi S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A team of scientists from New Zealand and Indonesia undertook a reconnaissance mission to the South Java area affected by the tsunami of 17 July 2006. The team used GPS-based surveying equipment to measure ground profiles and inundation depths along 17 transects across affected areas near the port city of Cilacap and the resort town of Pangandaran. The purpose of the work was to acquire data for calibration of models used to estimate tsunami inundations, casualty rates and damage levels. Additional information was gathered from interviews with eyewitnesses. The degree of damage observed was diverse, being primarily dependant on water depth and the building construction type. Water depths were typically 2 to 4 m where housing was seriously damaged. Damage levels ranged from total for older brick houses, to about 50% for newer buildings with rudimentary reinforced-concrete beams and columns, to 5–20% for engineered residential houses and multi-storey hotels with heavier RC columns. "Punchout" of weak brick walls was widespread. Despite various natural warning signs very few people were alerted to the impending tsunami. Hence, the death toll was significant, with average death and injury rates both being about 10% of the people exposed, for water depths of about 3 m.
A probabilistic approach for earthquake hazard assessment of the Province of Eskişehir, Turkey
Authors: Orhan A. , Seyrek E. , Tosun H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The city of Eskişehir in inner-western Turkey has experienced a destructive earthquake with Ms=6.4 in 1956 in addition to many events with magnitudes greater than 5. It is located in a wide basin having young sedimentary units and thick alluvium soils which also include liquefiable sand materials. There is also an active fault passing beneath the city center and the groundwater level is very close to the ground surface. Approximately 600 thousand people are living in the province of Eskişehir. Therefore, the city and its vicinity have a high risk, when earthquake hazard is considered. This paper summarizes the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) which was performed for the province of Eskişehir and introduces seismic hazard maps produced by considering earthquakes with magnitude Ms≥4.0 occurred during the last 100-years and a seismic model composed of four seismic sources. The results of PSHA show that the average peak ground acceleration (PGA) for the city center is 0.40 g for 10 percent probability of exceedance in 50 years, for rock site. The seismic hazard maps were obtained by means of a program of Geographic Information System.
Possible seismo-ionosphere perturbations revealed by VLF signals collected on ground and on a satellite
Authors: Rozhnoi A. , Molchanov O. , Solovieva M. , Gladyshev V. , Akentieva O. , Berthelier J. J. , Parrot M. , Lefeuvre F. , Hayakawa M. , Castellana L. , Biagi P. F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The results of the monitoring of three VLF/LF signals collected in Petropavlovsk station (Kamchatka, Russia) and one VLF signal collected on board of the DEMETER French satellite are presented. Two periods of the seismic activity occurred in the Japan-Kamchatka area during November–December 2004 and July–September 2005 were investigated and the earthquakes with M≥6.0 in the Japan-Kamchatka area, located inside one or more of the third Fresnel zones of the three radio paths were considered. The ground data were analysed using residual signal of phase dP or of amplitude dA, defined as the difference between the signal and the average of few quiet days (±5 days) immediately preceding or following the current day. Also the satellite data were processed by a method based on the difference between the real signal and the reference one, but in order to obtain this last signal it was necessary to construct previously a model of the signal distribution over the selected area. The method consists: (a) in averaging all the data available in the considered region over a period characterized by low level seismicity, regardless of the global disturbances, in particular, of the magnetic activity; (b) in computing a polynomial expression for the surface as a function of the longitude and the latitude. The model well describes the real data in condition of their completeness and in absence of magnetic storms or seismic forcing. In the quoted periods of seismic activity clear anomalies both in the ground and in satellite data were revealed. The influence of the geomagnetic activity cannot to be excluded, but the seismic forcing seems more probable.
Tidal triggering evidence of intermediate depth earthquakes in the Vrancea zone (Romania)
Authors: Cadicheanu N. , van Ruymbeke M. , Zhu P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Tidal triggering evidence of intermediate earthquakes in the Vrancea region (Romania) is investigated. The Vrancea seismic zone is located in the bend region of the South-Eastern Carpathians (45°–46° N, 25.5°–27.5° E) and is known as one of the most active seismic zones in Europe. We selected earthquakes occurred between 1981 and 2005 from the RomPlus catalog provided by the Institute of Earth Physics of Bucharest with Mω≥2.5 and focal depths between 60 and 300 Km. We assigned a tidal component phase angle for each event which is computed from the earthquake occurrence time. Then the phase angle distribution was obtained by stacking every angle value in a 360 degree coordinate. Main lunar and solar semidiurnal tidal components M2 and S2 are considered. The phase angle distributions are tested by Permutation test which are introduced for the first time to a tidal triggering study. We compared results with classical Schuster's test. Both tests produce one value, pp for Permutation test and ps for Schuster's test, which represent the significance level for rejecting the null hypothesis that earthquakes occur randomly irrespective of tidal activities M2 and S2 phase distribution are random for the complete data set. However, when we set up a one year window and slide it by 30 d step, significant correlations were found in some windows. As a result of the sliding window, data set systematic temporal patterns related to the decrease of the pp and ps values seem to precede the occurrence of larger earthquakes.
Constraining recent Shiveluch volcano eruptions (Kamchatka, Russia) by means of dendrochronology
Authors: Solomina O. , Pavlova I. , Curtis A. , Jacoby G. , Ponomareva V. , Pevzner M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Shiveluch (N 56°38´, E 161°19´; elevation: active dome ~2500 m, summit of Old Shiveluch 3283 m) is one of the most active volcanoes in Kamchatka. The eruptions of Shiveluch commonly result in major environmental damage caused by debris avalanches, hot pyroclastic flows, tephra falls and lahars. Constraining these events in time and space is important for the understanding and prediction of these natural hazards. The last major eruption of Shiveluch occurred in 2005; earlier ones, dated by instrumental, historical, 14C and tephrochronological methods, occurred in the last millennium around AD 1030, 1430, 1650, 1739, 1790–1810, 1854, 1879–1883, 1897–1898, 1905, 1927–1929, 1944–1950, and 1964. A lava dome has been growing in the 1964 crater since 1980, occasionally producing tephra falls and pyroclastic flows. Several Shiveluch eruptions (~AD 1050, 1650, 1854, 1964) may have been climatically effective and are probably recorded in the Greenland ice cores. Previously, most dates for eruptions before AD 1854 were obtained by tephrochronology and constrained by radiocarbon dating with an accuracy of several decades or centuries. In this paper we report tree-ring dates for a recent pyroclastic flow in Baidarnaia valley. Though the wood buried in these deposits is carbonized, fragile and poorly preserved, we were able to measure ring-width using standard tree-ring equipment or photographs and to cross-date these samples against the regional Kamchatka larch ring-width chronology. The dates of the outer rings indicate the date of the eruptions. In the Baidarnaia valley the eruption occurred shortly after AD 1756, but not later than AD 1758. This date coincides with the decrease of ring-width in trees growing near Shiveluch volcano in 1758–1763 in comparison with the control "non-volcanic" chronology. The pyroclastic flow in Kamenskaia valley, although similar in appearance to the one in Baidarnaia valley, definitively yielded a different age. Due to the age limit of the reference chronology (AD 1632–2005) and its short overlap with the sample chronology in Kamenskaia valley the dates of these deposits are very preliminary. The deposits probably date back to approximately AD 1649 or a few years later. This date is in close agreement with the previously obtained radiocarbon date of these sediments to AD 1641(1652)1663. Our data agree well with the tephrochronological findings, and further constrain the chronology of volcanic events in this remote area.
Study of self potential anomalous fluctuations in a seismic active zone of Lucano Apennine (southern Italy): recent results
Authors: Colangelo G. , Lapenna V. , Telesca L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Geoelectrical fluctuations measured in seismic areas have been attributed to stress and strain changes, associated with earthquakes. The complex nature of this problem has suggested the development of monitoring stations in order to perform geophysical monitoring for a long time period and with a high sample rate. In this paper, anomalous geoelectrical fluctuations of SP signals recorded in the S. Loja basin, Lucano Apennine chain by Tito and Picerno stations, and linked with seismic activity, are analyzed and discussed.
A model for triggering mechanisms of shallow landslides
Authors: Montrasio L. , Valentino R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Rainfall-induced shallow landslides, also called "soil slips", are becoming ever more frequent all over the world and are receiving a rising interest in consequence of the heavy damage they produce. At the University of Parma, a simplified physically based model has been recently set up for the evaluation of the safety factor of slopes which are potentially at risk of a soil slip. This model, based on the limit equilibrium method applied to an infinite slope, takes into account some simplified hypotheses on the water down-flow and defines a direct correlation between the safety factor of the slope and the rainfall depth. In this paper, this model is explained in detail and is used in a back analysis process to verify its capability to foresee the triggering instant of rainfall-induced shallow landslides for some recent case studies in the Emilia Romagna Apennines (Northern Italy). The results of the analyses and of the model implementation are finally shown.
Similar behaviors of natural ELF/VLF ionospheric emissions and transmitter signals over seismic Adriatic regions
Authors: Boudjada M. Y. , Schwingenschuh K. , Biernat H. K. , Berthelier J. J. , Blecki J. , Parrot M. , Stachel M. , Aydogar Ö. , Stangl G. , Weingrill J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We report on the analysis of ELF/VLF emissions observed by the Instrument Champ Electrique (ICE) experiment onboard the DEMETER micro-satellite. We consider principally selected seismic events reported by Molchanov et al. (2006). These authors studied the VLF signals radiated by ground transmitters and received on board the DEMETER micro-satellite. They revealed a drop of the signals (scattering spot) connected with the occurrence of large earthquakes. In our investigations, we proceed to a spectral analysis of ICE observations with the aim to find if the natural ionospheric VLF/ELF emissions show, or not, a similar ''drop'' in the intensity as it is the case of the VLF transmitter signal. We combine our results with those of Molchanov et al. (2006), and we discuss the origin of such interesting ionospheric features in the frame of the investigation of the pre-seismic electromagnetic emissions. We show that the geomagnetic activity is a key parameter which could disturb the natural VLF ionospheric emissions, and also the transmitter signal. We find that it is not possible to conclude the presence, or not, of a preseismic effect when the Kp-index is higher than one.
The correlation of electrical charge with strain on stressed rock samples
Authors: Triantis D. , Anastasiadis C. , Stavrakas I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Laboratory experiments on rock samples have shown electric signal emissions when the samples are subjected to temporal stress increase especially when the samples approach failure. These electric signals are attributed to the generation and propagation of microcracks that guide the sample to mechanical failure. In this work the temporal evolution of electric charge release is studied for marble samples subjected to stress at a constant rate up to fracture and it is correlated to the respective recordings of the yielded strain. The results exhibit a systematic linear correlation between electric charge and deformation, with a constant proportionality factor independent of stress rate magnitude. This linear correlation, which is in accordance with the Moving Charged Dislocations (MCD) model, exists from the instant that the marble samples are driven to the non-linear region of mechanical behaviour due to the applied stress, and more precisely to the Crack Propagation Zone (CPZ) up to the pre-failure phase.
Climate change impact of wind energy availability in the Eastern Mediterranean using the regional climate model PRECIS
Authors: Bloom A. , Kotroni V. , Lagouvardos K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Global near-surface wind fields are projected to change as a result of climate change. An enhanced knowledge of the changes in wind energy availability in the twenty-first century is essential for improving the development of wind energy production. We use the PRECIS regional model over the East Mediterranean to dynamically downscale the results of the Had3CM Atmosphere-Ocean coupled Global Circulation Model. Wind field changes during the 21st century are determined by comparing the current climate simulation (1961–1990) with the IPCC A2 emissions scenario simulation (2071–2100). The consistency of the current climate simulation of wind speeds is assessed by comparing its results to the ERA40 re-analysis data. The comparison of the wind field from ERA40 re-analysis to that from the PRECIS current climate simulation shows relatively large mean differences that could partly be attributed to the difference in the spatial resolution of the two sources of data. Wind speeds in 2071–2100 exhibit a general increase over land and a decrease over the sea, with the exception of a noticeable increase over the Aegean Sea.
Social tension as precursor of large damaging earthquake: legend or reality?
Authors: Molchanov O.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Using case study of earthquake (EQ) activity and war conflicts in Caucasus during 1975–2002 time interval and correlation analysis of global distribution of damaging EQs and war-related social tension during 1901–2005 period we conclude: There is a statistically reliable increase of social tension several years (or several months in case study) before damaging EQs, There is evident decrease of social tension several years after damaging EQs, probably due to society consolidation, Preseismic effect is absent for the large EQs in unpopulated areas, There is some factual background for legendary belief in Almighty retribution for social abnormal behavior.
TEC variations over the Mediterranean during the seismic activity period of the last quarter of 2005 in the area of Greece
Authors: Contadakis M. E. , Arabelos D. N. , Asteriadis G. , Spatalas S. D. , Pikridas C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper the Total Electron Content (TEC) data of eight Global Positioning System (GPS) stations of the EUREF network (AUT1, Thessaloniki, TUC2, Crete in Greece, MATE, Matera, LAMP, Lampedusa in Italy, GAIA, in Portugal, RABT, Rabat, EVPA, Evpatoria in Ukrain and TRAB, Trabson in Turkey) were analysed using wavelet analysis in order to detect any frequency dependence of the correlation between TEC over different stations. In the same time frequency dependence of Dst (Global geomagnetic field disturbances) and TEC variations over each GPS station are searched in order to detect any correlation between them. The main conclusion of this analysis is that the components of TEC variation with periods <3 h are more suitable in searching for earthquake precursors. On the base of this conclusion the analyzed TEC series are searched for possible precursory phenomena on the occasion of the seismic activity of the last quarter of 2005 in the area of Greece. An exalting (i.e. an increase in the amplitude) of variations with periods up to the tidal ones (period of 6 h,8 h,12 h) may be observed a month before and during the seismic activity over the stations TUC2 and AUT1 and may be attributed to this tectonic activity. Statistical properties of the 1.5 h component of the Total Vertical Electron Content (TVEC) over the nearest GPS stations (TUC2 and AUT1) of the areas of the seismic activity indicate that this component present characteristic exalting in the time period of 15 days before the shock.