Hospital strain and Covid-19 fatality: analysis of English nationwide surveillance data
Authors: Lin Teng-Fei , Zhao Zi-Yi , Yang Zhi-Rong , Li Bing-li , Wei Chang , Li Fu-Xiao , Jiang Yi-Wen , Liu Di , Yang Zu-Yao , Sha Feng , Tang Jin-Ling 
Published: September 2022

Objectives

To examine whether and to what extent hospital strain will increase the risk of death from Covid-19.

Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Setting

England.

Participants

Data on all the 147,276 Covid-19 deaths and 601,084 hospitalized Covid-19 patients in England during the period between 9 April 2020 and 11 March 2022 were extracted on a daily basis from the UK Health Security Agency.

Main outcome measures

The number of Covid-19 patients currently in hospitals was used as the measure of hospital strain. Daily case fatality was estimated as the measure of risk of death from Covid-19. The study was divided into 4 periods, which represented largely the wild, Alpha, Delta and Omicron waves. Weighted linear regression models were used to assess the association between hospital strain and Covid-19 fatality with adjustment for potential confounders including vaccination score, hospital admission rate, percentage of deaths outside hospitals, study period and interaction between patients currently in hospitals and study period.

Results

The daily case fatality from Covid-19 increased linearly as the number of patients currently in hospitals increased in the 4 study periods except the Omicron wave. After adjusting for potential confounders, an increase in 1000 patients currently in hospitals was associated with a relative increase of 6.3% (95% CI: 5.9%~6.8%), 1.4% (95% CI: 1.3% ~ 1.5%) and 12.7% (95% CI: 10.8%~14.7%) in daily case fatality during study periods 1, 2 and 3 respectively. Compared with the lowest number of patients currently in hospitals, the highest number was associated with a relative increase of 188.0% (95% CI: 165.9%~211.6%), 69.9% (95% CI: 59.0%~81.8%) and 58.2% (95% CI: 35.4%~89.0%) in daily case fatality in the first 3 study periods respectively. Sensitivity analyses using the number of patients in ventilation beds as the measure of hospital strain showed similar results.

Conclusions

The risk of death from Covid-19 was linearly associated with the number of patients currently in hospitals, suggesting any (additional) effort to ease hospital strain or maintain care quality be beneficial during large outbreaks of Covid-19 and likely of other similar infectious diseases.

Summary box

What is already known on this topic

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During the Covid-19 pandemic, tremendous efforts have been made in many countries to suppress epidemic peaks and strengthen hospital services so as to avoid hospital strain with an ultimate aim to reduce the risk of death from Covid-19.

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These efforts were made according to the widely held belief that hospital strain would increase the risk of Covid-19 death but good empirical evidence was largely lacking to support the hypothesis.

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A few small studies showed that shortage in intensive care was associated with an increased Covid-19 fatality but strains may occur in many areas in the healthcare system besides intensive care and they may all increase the risk of death from Covid-19.

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The totality of hospital strain can be approximated by the number of patients currently in hospitals but its effects on the risk of Covid-19 death has not been demonstrated.

What this study adds

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We found the risk of death from Covid-19 was linearly associated with the number of patients currently in hospitals before the Omicron period.

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Compared with the lowest number of patients currently in hospitals in an outbreak, the highest number could be associated with a relative increase in the risk of death between 58.2% and 188.0%.

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The number of patients currently in hospitals during the Omicron period was not found associated with the risk of death but there remains uncertainty if the number of patients currently in hospitals reached a level much higher than that actually occurred in England or in places other than England.

How this study might affect research, practice, or policy

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Facing the on-going Covid-19 pandemic and future outbreaks alike, the linear relation between hospital strain and fatality suggests importantly any (additional) effort to reduce hospital strain would be beneficial during a large Covid-19 outbreak.