bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Distributional Impact of Public Enterprise Labour Policies in
Pakistan
Authors: Naqvi Zareen Fatima
Published: August 2018

Employment generation has been one of the goals of creating or
maintaining government -owned enterprises in the past. In fulfilling
this role public enterprises often played the role of the model employer
see Lakshman (1984). In the current policy atmosphere both domestically
and internationally, there is a trend to limit the size of government
intervention in the economy. In Pakistan the privatisation of industrial
units and the planned divestiture of infrastructural units like Water
and Power Development Authority (W APDA), Karachi Electric Supply
Corporation (KESe) and Pakistan Telecommunication Corporation (PTe) is
changing the mix of public-private domain in economic activity. What
would be the impact of labour retrenchment in the former public
enterprises? Estimates show that there has been a 42 percent reduction
in employment in the recently privatised units [Naqvi (1994»). If the
government reduces the public sector workforce and cuts back the liberal
remuneration package to public employees, which groups would benefit
from such a move? These questions have been analysed in the context of a
computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Section 2 describes the
model. This is followed by a brief discussion of the data. Model
simulation results are discussed in Section 4 and the conclusions are
presented in Section 5. The Appendix contains the equations referred to
in the text.
Factors Affecting Fertility in Pakistan
Authors: Hakim Abdul
Published: August 2018

Pakistan, with an estimated population of 122 million in 1993,
is the eighth most populous country in the world. The historical trends
indicate a continuous and exponentially increasing growth in population
because of sustained high fertility and declining mortality. Currently,
the population is growing at around 3 percent per annum, one of the
highest rates of growth in the world. In Pakistan, the contraceptive
prevalence is very low (14 percent) and the fertility level is among the
highest in the world. There has been only a marginal decline in
fertility in Pakistan over the last two decades. An average married
woman in Pakistan still experiences a total of at least seven children
if she survives and completes her reproductive period. Using data from
the Pakistan Contraceptive Prevalence Survey 1984-85 [see Population
Welfare Division, (1986) for details], the purpose of this analysis is
to determine whether there are any differentials in fertility levels by
age at marriage, educational level, work status, region of residence
(province), and place of residence (urban or rural). Both bivariate and
multivariate analyses have been undertaken to examine the effects of
these demographic andsocio-economic factors on the level of
fertility.
Contraceptive Methods Choice in Pakistan: Determined or
Predetermined
Authors: Ahmed Tauseef
Published: August 2018

Service providers and users are two key players in the efforts
to regulate fertility in a society. Government policies and programmes
ensure provision of services through increased coverage and adopting
selective methods or a "cafeteria" approach. The objective for programme
managers remains to bring adequate fertility impact without sacrificing
pattern of use-continuation and overall efficiency of contraception. In
contrast are the users, display another range of factors like
preferences, motivation, ability to purchase and their stage of family
building determining their participation in the fertility regulation
behaviour. In this regard, the availability and accessibility to
contraceptive methods referred to as the supply aspects of a system,
outline the choice parameters for a user.
Comparative Advantage in Pakistan's Agriculture: The Concept and
the Policies
Authors: Chaudhry M. Ghaffar , Sahibzada Shamim A.
Published: August 2018

The current debate on policy issues for enhancing agricultural
productivity in Pakistan revolves around one issue and that is the
substantial misallocation of resources in Pakistan's agriculture. As a
result, it is believed, resources are drawn away from commodities in
which Pakistan has a strong comparative advantage and towards
commodities in which it is a relatively inefficient producer. Cotton is
cited in the former and sugarcane in the latter case. It is suggested
that if prices of these commodities are corrected and all distortions
are removed, then increased specialisation, strictly in accordance with
the comparative advantage principle, would ensure maximum gains from
improved farm efficiency and enhance the welfare of the farm population.
It is also argued that even if international prices of agricultural
commo'dities decline due to the increase in production, Pakistani
farmers should not suffer great losses since they currently receive
prices which are far below the international prices [Chaudhry and Kayani
(1991)].
Role of Infaq in Poverty Alleviation in Pakistan
Authors: Malik Sohail J. , Hussain Muhammad , Shirazi Nasim S.
Published: August 2018

A number of studies such as Naseem (1973, 1977); Allaudin
(1975); Mujahid (1978); Irfan and Amjad (1984); Kruijk and Leeuwan
(1985); Cheema (1985); Malik (1988); Akhtar (1988); Ercelawn (1988,
1989, 1990); Ahmad and Ludlow (1990); Havinga et al. (1990, 199Oa);
Malik (1992) and Zaidi and de Vos (1993) have been undertaken to analyse
the phenomena of poverty in Pakistan. The general picture that emerges
from these studies is that although poverty is widespread in Pakistan,
it is more prevalent in rural areas. Poverty increased during the 1960s,
but it has been declining ever since 1970. The change in agrarian
structure during the 1960s contributed towards the higher rural poverty.
A respectable rate of economic growth and the increase In foreign
remittances are generally mentioned as factors responsible for the
decline in poverty since the 1970s. The introduction of zakat and ushr
system in 1980 also played its role in this regard. However, poverty
still remains One of the most serious problems in the
country.
An Escape from the Malthus Rectangle? Poverty, and Conversion
Efficiency (Distinguishedl Lecture)
Authors: Lipton Michael
Published: August 2018

Malthus (1798, 1803, 1824) wrote during the world's first
period of sustained and widespread growth in real income per person: the
"Northern" agro-industrial revolution of 1740-1970. When he wrote, it
was widely believed that not only growth, but also poverty reduction,
depended substantially on what he called "schemes of improvement".
Malthus's central claim is that these could not reduce poverty in the
long run, unless fertility declined. This, he believed, was because any
short-run success of "schemes of improvement" in reducing poverty would
increase the rate of population growth among the poor. This would raise
the supply of labour and the demand for food. Owing to diminishing
marginal returns to extra hectares-plus-persons as new, inferior land
was brought into cultivation, "the proportion between the price of
labour and the price of provisions" would then fall, thus returning the
poor to poverty. Unless fertility fell, the long-term well-being of the
poor could not improve much. Being largely dependent on the real wage,
it was boxed in by the Malthus rectangle (Figure 1) of population,
labour supply, land, and food, and the interactions among
them.
Democracy, Governance and Civil Society in South Asia (The
Distinguishedl Lecture)
Authors: Rizvi Gowher
Published: August 2018

Six years ago, at the start of 1988, the prospect for
democracy in South Asia did not appear very promising. The military
rulers both in Pakistan and Bangladesh had managed to cloak their
regimes in civilian attire and appeared well entrenched even if their
quest for legitimacy had evaded them. In Nepal and Bhutan the hereditary
monarchs showed no signs of conceding to the demands for popular
participation despite the simmering political discontent in both
countries. The democratic traditions of Sri Lanka had proved
sufficiently resilient for the formal representative institutions to
endure but the continued civil strife and violence had virtually reduced
effective popular participation into a farce. Likewise in India, whilst
the ghost of Indira Gandhi's authoritarian rule during the emergency in
1975-77 had been exorcised by subsequent renewals of popular mandate,
the democratic institutions and popular accountability had probably
suffered irreversible damages and it was not uncommon amongst political
analysts to speak of the 'ungovernability' of the country.
Exports, Growth and Causality: An Application of Co-integration
and Error-correction Modelling
Authors: Khan Ashfaque H. , Malik Afia , Hasan Lubna
Published: August 2018

The relationship between export expansion and economic growth
has been examined extensively during the last two decades in the context
of the suitability of the alternative development strategies. The decade
of the 1970s witnessed an emerging consensus in favour of export
promotion as development strategy. Such a consensus was based on the
following facts. First, higher export earnings working through
alleviating foreign exchange constraints may enhance the ability of a
developing country to import more industrial raw materials and capital
goods, which, in turn, may expand its productive capacity. Secondly, the
competition in export markets abroad may lead to the exploitation of
economies of scale, greater capacity utilisation, efficient resource
allocation, and an acceleration of technical progress in production.
Thirdly, given the theoretical arguments mentioned above, the observed
strong correlation between exports and economic growth was interpreted
as empirical evidence in favour of export promotion as a development
strategy. The empirical evidence in favour of export promotion rests on
the general approach where real growth is regressed on contemporaneous
real export, growth and the significance of the export growth
coefficient supports the proposition that export growth causes output
growth. Balassa (1978); Feder (1982); Fosu (1990); Kavoussi (1984);
Tyler (1981) and Ram (1985) have followed such an approach.1 Khan and
Saqib (1993), on the other hand, examined the relationship between
exports and economic growth by constructing a simultaneous equation
model comprising equations for exports and economic growth. They found a
strong association between export performance and GDP growth for
Pakistan, and that more than 90 percent of the contribution of exports
on economic growth was indirect in nature.
Country Rankings of Women's Status: An Alternative Index
Authors: Mohiuddln Yasmeen
Published: August 2018

The purpose of the present paper is to formulate a composite
index of the status of women and to rank both developed and developing
countries on the basis of that index. This index is presented as an
alternative or complement to the current status of women index,
published by the Population Crisis Committee (PCC) and used by the World
Bank and the United Nations, which focuses on indicators measuring
health, education, employment, marriage and childbearing, and social
equality. The paper argues that these indicators have a poverty-bias and
measure women's status in terms of structural change rather than in
terms of their welfare vis-ii-vis men. The PCC index is also based on
the implicit assumption that women's status in developing countries
ought to be defined in a similar way as in developed countries, thus
including primarily only those indicators which are more relevant for
developed countries. To remedy these defects, the paper presents an
alternative composite index, hereafter labelled the Alternative
Composite (AC) index, based on many more indicators reflecting women's
issues in both developed and developing countries. The results of the
statistical analysis show that the ranking of countries based on the AC
index is significantly different from the PCC index.
An Econometric Estimation of Tax-discounting in Pakistan
Authors: Kazmi Aqdas Ali
Published: August 2018

The debt neutrality hypothesis which has been a source of
major controversies in the theory of public finance, and macroeconomics
has at the same time generated a vast literature on the implications of
budgetary deficits and public debt on various subsectors/ variables of
the economy, such as inflation, interest rates, current account deficit,
etc. Tax discounting has been one of the fields of research associated
with debt neutrality. The econometric estimation of some of the standard
models of taxdiscounting has shown that consumer response to fiscal
policy in Pakistan reflects neither the extreme Barro-like rational
anticipation of future tax liabilities nor the Buchanan-type extreme
fiscal myopia. It broadly follows a middle path between these extremes.
The controversy relating to debt neutrality is quite old in economic
theory. However, due to its serious and far-reaching implications for
the formulation of fiscal policy and macroeconomic management, the
issues of debt neutrality have assumed a foremost position in economic
theoretisation and empirical testing. This controversy is based on two
important questions: (a) Who bears the burden of the debt? (b) Should
debt be used to finance public expenditure? The first question centres
on whether the debt can be shifted forward in time, while the second
question explores whether taxation is equivalent to debt in its effects
on the national economy.
Changing Demographic, Social, and Economic Conditions in Karachi
City, 1959–94: A Preliminary Analysis
Authors: Karim Mehtab S.
Published: August 2018

Kingsley Davis (1961) had argued that the reason that the
ancient cities failed to survive was that they were too deadly. He
suggested that “three of their (cities) main traits....the crowding of
many people in little space, their dependence on widespread contacts
(due to in-migration), and their wealth...laid them open to contagious
diseases, environmental contamination, occasional starvation and
warfare”. Even in the medieval age, some European cities provide
examples of such problems; but especially so following the Industrial
Revolution. Do the events of the 1980s and the 1990s in Karachi suggest
that the city may be heading in the same direction. Recently, The Times
London in a lead article in November 1994, labelled Karachi as a “City
of Riches and Shattered Dreams”. It further said that Karachi had grown
into a megalopolis where life moved fast and street violence had become
a norm. Indeed, more than 65 percent of Pakistan’s industries and 80
percent of its finance, banking, and business are concentrated in the
city and people come to it from all over the country to find jobs and
fulfil their dreams [Husain (1994)]. During the past decade, street
violence in the form of ethnic clashes has become a sort of regular
event in Karachi. At times, these clashes have been more frequent and
even bloodier than the ones before. According to the local newspaper
accounts, between 1985 and 1988 (in four years), about 400 people died
in Karachi due to violence, which has increased substantially over time.
Thus, while the number of violent deaths remained between 350–500 during
1991–93, in 1994 alone the number exceeded 1,100, and during the first
three months of 1995, over 300 persons have died due to violence.
According to the Karachi Police sources, most of the victims of violent
deaths in Karachi during 1994 were men in the age group
13–50.
Women's Empowerment and Reproductive Choices
Authors: Ali Syed Mubashir , Siyal Hussain B. , Sultan Mehboob
Published: August 2018

The 1994 Cairo International Conference on Population and
Development (lCPD) in their Programme of Action calls for promoting
gender equality and equity and the empowerment of women. Furthermore,
the conference also recognises the basic rights of all couples and
individuals to decide freely and responsibly the number, spacing, and
timing of their children, as well as the right to the information and
the means to do so [Sadik (1994)]. The need for such a programme of
action arose in view of the fact that in many countries, including
Pakistan, women are generally least empowered and hence they have
negligible rights to decide about the number of their children.
According to the 1990-91 Pakistan Demographic and Health Survey, over 54
percent women either wanted to stop having children or wanted to wait at
least two years before having another child [Ali and Rukanuddin (1992)].
However, in practice, all of these women were not protected; instead,
only 12 percent were practising contraception [Shah and Ali (1992)]. The
low incidence of family planning practice on the part of the women is
not so much due to the dearth of family planning services; rather it is
due to resistance by husbands, in-laws, and other peer pressures.
Demographers like Caldwell (1982) and Cain et al. (1979) also contend
that in patriarchal societies it is the patriarchy which militates
against the fertility decline.
Export Earnings Instability in Pakistan
Authors: Tariq Ahmad , Najeeb Qazi
Published: August 2018

Since independence, Pakistan, like many other countries, has
been facing the problem of the balance-of-payments deficit. A number of
policies have been introduced during different periods for rapid and
continuous growth in Pakistan’s exports. These policies, like import
substitution, devaluation of the rupee in 1972, export finance schemes,
tax concessions, delinking of the rupee from the U.S. dollar in 1982,
etc., have helped in boosting its exports to some extent but not enough
to stabilise its export earnings. The fluctuations in export earnings
are known to have serious consequences. Specifically, unstable export
earnings affect the investment decisions by hindering the continuous
import of industrial raw materials. This, in turn, impedes the growth of
the industrial sector. Moreover, it causes fluctuations in the GNP and
promotes uncertainty in the economy. This uncertainty plays a decisive
role in the private sector’s hesitation to invest in the large-scale
manufacturing industries, thereby hampering the country’s overall
development. Keeping in view the possibly serious consequences of export
earnings instability, a study exploring its causes is in order.
Concentration of exports on a few commodities and exporting to only a
few markets is among the possible explanations of the current
instability in Pakistan’s export earnings. Due to commodity
concentration, the chances of offsetting the impact of adverse price
movements in the international market are reduced. This commodity
concentration is often associated with the concentration on primary
products and is, therefore, the basis for a policy of diversification
away from primary products. A diversification away from primary products
and towards industrial goods is desirable for another reason, not
central to this paper; and that is that the terms of trade argument
which claims that the relative prices of the primary products have
increased slowly relative to the prices of the manufactured goods in the
international market.
Economics of Barani (Rainfed) Farming and Farm Household
Production Behaviour in Pakistan
Authors: Mahmood Amir
Published: August 2018

Agriculture research and development efforts in Pakistan have
traditionally been focused on raising the farm productivity of irrigated
areas. Among other factors, the underlying causes for this irrigated
bias could be attributed to: the importance given to the irrigated areas
in the overall planning framework; the dominance of the irrigated farm
lobby at all levels of research, politics, and government; the relative
progressiveness of irrigated farmers in terms of adoption of new
technologies; and the presence of risk-reducing natural conditions
prevailing on irrigated farms, e.g., certainty of subsidised water
supply when it is most needed. Further, like other parts of Asia, the
Green Revolution has helped the irrigated farmers in Pakistan to raise
the productivity of their major crops, such as wheat, cotton, and rice.
On the other hand, the rainfed I areas of Pakistan have drawn little
benefit from the Green Revolution. The average yields achieved on the
rainfed areas remain significantly lower than the yields derived by the
traditional irrigated farmers. The rainfed farmers are also subject to
subsistence farming conditions with per capita incomes well below the
national average.2 Given the size of the area under rainfed conditions
and the problems faced by the rainfed farmers, there have been attempts
by the government, international donor agencies, and nongovernment
organisations to come up with strategies to raise the productivity as
well as income of the rainfed farmers. Such efforts, however, must take
into account the production behaviour of the farm-households under
rainfed conditions.
Money Supply, Deficit, and Inflation in Pakistan
Authors: Chaudhary Mohammad Aslam , Ahmad Naved
Published: August 2018

Inflation is a burning issue in Pakistan. It is generally felt
that for several years Pakistan has had a double-digit inflation. The
public sector has used a mix of policies to control inflation, and it is
also held responsible for its creation. The consumer price index (CPI)
increased over 11 percent in 1981-82, and over 12 percent in 1990-91.
Similarly, sensitive price index (SPI) increased over 15 percent in
1981-82, and over 12 percent in 1990-91. The GDP deflator was also
double-digit for several years. Inflation not only affects sectoral
allocation and distribution of income but also generates poverty. A
prescription might not be appropriate until the roots of the disease are
carefully investigated, which is the very reason for carrying out this
study. Studies by Hossain (1990) several others concluded that inflation
is a monetary phenomenon in Pakistan, while Bilquees (1988) showed that
structural factors explained the inflationary process in Pakistan. It is
widely disagreed whether money supply is exogenous or endogenous. Vogel
(1974), criticising the monetarist approach, argued that further
research is needed on the determination of money supply. Given this
background, this study is intended to identify the variables leading to
inflation; the nature of money supply, endogenous or exogenous, is also
analysed. Section 2 of the study provides a brief review of the
literature. A model is developed to study the relationship among fiscal
deficit, money supply, and inflation. Section 3 contains a description
of the empirical results. Section 4 provides the conclusion and policy
implications.
An Analysis of Drug Abuse Networking in Pakistan
Authors: Rafiq Muhammad
Published: August 2018

There are three principal reasons for undertaking the present
paper. First, although all the dimensions of diffusion of drug abuse are
still uncertain and the existence and extent of Drug Abuse Networking
(DAN) is certainly not the only factor determining the likelihood of the
spread of drug abuse. Nevertheless, one of the prime modes of its spread
is through DAN. The extent of DAN and the diffusion of drug abuse in
society are closely related to each other [Brook, Nomura and Cohen
(1989, 1989a, 1992); Kornhauser (1978); Elliott, Huizinge and Dunford
(1983); Delemarre (1993)]. Second, the network analysis provides an
important instrumental element to deal with social problems and to
uncover the information for intervention in specific groups of the
community for the well-being of its members [Uehara (1990); Wellman and
Scott (1990); Brook, Nomura, and Cohen (1980); Coombs (1973); Thompson
(1973); Eggert, Thompson, Herting, Nicholas and Dicker (1994); Gould
(1991)]. Last, the issues of DAN’s dynamics and its control have
received little attention in literature relevant to Pakistan or
elsewhere. It is also considered important from the policy point of view
to determine the dynamics of DAN in Pakistan on the basis of
experimental research.1 It is hoped that this paper will help in the
attainment of these goals. It addresses the subject from different
perspectives, but the major aim is to help develop and establish
methodologies in the context of Pakistan. Such research may help those
involved in making the policies and in controlling the diffusion of drug
abuse in Pakistan. In recent
Desire for No More Children and Contraceptive Use in
Pakistan
Authors: Hakim Abdul
Published: August 2018

Pakistan has been experiencing rapid population growth since
the second half of this century. The growth rate accelerated after the
1950s as a result of the decline in mortality coupled with sustained
high fertility. The area constituting Pakistan had a population of 16.6
million in 1901, 33.7 million in 1951, and 126 million in 1994 [Hakim
(1994), p. 2]. Recognising the problem of rapid population growth,
Pakistan has been trying to control it through different family planning
strategies and approaches since the 1960s. However, various surveys
indicate that the rate of success in family planning has not been
encouraging. So far, the population welfare programme has achieved a
sizeable recognition of the need for family planning but the actual use
of family planning methods remains limited. The use of family planning
methods in Pakistan is determined by various. factors and may vary
between different segments of the population according to various
socio-economic, cultural, and economic factors. It is also possible that
a woman does not want more children but cannot use family planning
methods because of seclusion or her subordinate position in the family
[Hakim (1992)]. However, the desire for children is one of the main
reasons considered in this connection.
Volatility at Karachi Stock Exchange
Authors: Farid Aslam , Ashraf Javed
Published: August 2018

Frequent “crashes” of the stock market reported during the
year 1994 suggest that the Karachi bourse is rapidly converting into a
volatile market. This cannot be viewed as a positive sign for this
developing market of South Asia. Though heavy fluctuations in stock
prices are not an unusual phenomena and it has been observed at almost
all big and small exchanges of the world. Focusing on the reasons for
such fluctuations is instructive and likely to have important policy
implications. Proponents of the efficient market hypothesis argue that
changes in stock prices are mainly dependent on the arrival of
information regarding the expected returns from the stock. However, Fama
(1965), French (1980), and French and Rolls (1986) observed that
volatility is to some extent caused by trading itself. Portfolio
insurance schemes also have the potential to increase volatility. Brady
Commission’s Report provides useful insights into the effect of
portfolio insurance schemes. It is interesting to note that many
analysts consider the so-called “crashes” of Karachi stock market as a
deliberate move to bring down prices. An attempt is made in this study
to examine the effect of trading on the volatility of stock prices at
Karachi Stock Exchange (KSE). Findings of the study will help understand
the mechanism of the rise and fall of stock prices at the Karachi
bourse.
The Controllability of Monetary Aggregates in Pakistan
Authors: Siddiqui Anjum , Waheed Ahmad
Published: August 2018

The introduction of new financial i'nstruments l and the
consequent asset substitutability since the advent of financial
deregulation in 1991 has been accompanied by volatility of the money
multiplier and the monetary aggregates. While money demand studies exist
[Khan (1980)], the modelIing of the supply side of money and, in
general, the impact of financial innovations on money multipliers and
monetary aggregates has been largely ignored.2 In a recent study,
Siddiqui and Waheed (I994a) found that during 1992-93 the narrow money
multiplier felI and increased sharply, causing instability in MI. It was
also observed that the broad money multiplier showed similar instability
during the same period.
Rural Women’s Access to Credit and Extension: A Strategy for
Change
Authors: Kazi Shahnaz , Raza Bilquees
Published: August 2018

Although still ‘invisible’ to policy-makers, women’s
involvement in agricultural and livestock production is empirically
established through national surveys and intensive studies. The labour
force participation rates for rural women in 1990-91 varied ranged
between 57 percent (Agricultural Census) and 43 percent (Pakistan
Integrated Household Survey). Evidence from micro studies also shows
that women are active participants in the farm and livestock sectors
[Freedman and Wai (1988); Masood (1988); Ali et al. (1976); Haque
(1986); Khan and Bilquees (1976)]. While rural women’s contribution to
agricultural and livestock production is well-documented, they have
little or no access to productive inputs to enhance their economic
participation in these sectors. Evidence based on national level data
indicates that women’s participation in agricultural activities is
constrained by the lack of land and other assets [Sathar and Desai
(1994)]. Contrary to the general view, women belonging to households
that own land or other assets have a higher labour force participation
rate than landless women. While landless women are more likely to work
as agricultural labourers, however, the demand for wage employment is
seasonal, limited to a few activities and certain regions, and their
lack of assets to work with excludes any possibility of self-employment.
Findings of village level research indicate a wide gap between the
technology used by rural women and the more efficient practices in
livestock production, which is attributed to their lack of contact with
extension services and to their lack of resources to adopt more
efficient methods of livestock care [Haque (1986)].
Islamic Perspectives on Economic Development
Authors: Tahir Sayyid
Published: August 2018

Islam is both a religion and a way of life. Whereas Allah
Sub'hanahu wa Ta' aala prescribed a set of acts of personal worship, He
also gave a code of conduct for interaction among human beings. This
code consists of permissible .forms of transactions vis-a.-vis the
non-permissible. According to the Islamic faith, one is as much
accountable in this respect as he is in matters of personal obedience to
his Creator. That Islam offers some guidelines for development is,
therefore, understandable. However, what does Islam have to offer in the
area of economic development-the concept as well as the strategy? There
is room for some argument here. This paper focuses on this subject. The
existing thought on the subject developed in the background of a huge
body of literature for both planned and mixed economies-the latter
modelled on the capitalist pattern. It is, therefore, not surprising
that the departure from the mainstream thinking took the form of
emphasis on the moral and ethical dimensions of economic development
[Ahmad (1980); Chapra (1993); Sadeq (1987)]. In other words, "economic
growth along with development on the moral and social planes" defined
the Islamic position on this subject.
Half a Century of Economic and Social Development Policies of the
UN and Bretton Woods Institutions (The Iqbal Memorial Lecture)
Authors: Singer Hans W.
Published: August 2018

It is customary to date the origin of the Bretton Woods system
back to 1942 when Keynes, and his associates in London, prepared the
three famous memoranda on the International Clearing Union, on Commodity
Buffer Stocks and Plans for Relief and Reconstruction. To these three
memoranda we may add the Beveridge Report which appeared in the same
year, 1942. Keynes had taken a great interest in the Beveridge Report
and this model of a national social welfare state was readily capable of
international extension and application. However, in this historical
perspective, we may well go a little further back. The Great Depression
of the 1930s had shown that in the absence of multilateral agreements
and multilateral institutions, the economic system was in danger of
degenerating into beggar-my-neighbour policies leading to general
immiserisation. The World Economic Conference of 1931 had been a first
attempt to create an international economic order to prevent this
condition from continuing. Although this attempt ended in failure, yet
the ideas then brought forward had continued to reverberate in Keynes’s
mind. His vision underlying the 1942 documents was governed by the
overarching principle of “Never Again!” -never again back to the
conditions of the 1930s which were seen as having brought about not only
mass misery and mass unemployment but also Hitlerism and war. Also never
again a failure like that of the 1931 World Economic
Conference!
Some Issues in Institutional Finance for Agricultural
Development: A Cross-National Review of Evidence
Authors: Mellor John W.
Published: August 2018

Credit is essential for agricultural development. The
circumstantial evidence is clear: where agriculture has grown rapidly,
there has been expansion of institutional credit. More directly,
although farmers as producers have a high preference to hold their
savings in physical productive assets on their own farms, they must also
rely on external funds at various points in time. This arises generally
from the lack of simultaneity between the realisation of income and the
act of expenditure. To cite a few illustrations: A field-crop farmer
harvests once or twice a year, while consumption is continuous. For a
dairy farmer, the interval between the realisation of income and
operating expenditure is shorter and income is more or less continuous,
provided there are two milk animals and ready access to marketing
facilities. But, there is a lumpy investment in the animals. For a
tree-crop farmer, there is a vast gap between the time when expenditure
is incurred and income is generated. There is also a problem of
indivisibility of fixed capital (e.g., construction of wells, pumpsets,
farm implements, bullocks, soil and moisture improvement works,
tractors, etc.). There is also'a life cycle-induced need for
finance.
Social Development Ranking of Districts of Pakistan
Authors: Ghaus A. F.Aisha , Pasha Hafiz A. , Ghaus Rafia
Published: August 2018

The paper has used eleven indicators relating to the
education, health and water supply sectors to rank districts of Pakistan
in terms of the level of social development. It also seeks to explain
regional variation in the development of social infrastructure across
districts. The paper demonstrates the importance of education indicators
in determining the overall level of social development, especially in
terms of female literacy and enrolment rates. Also, the ranking
demonstrate a close correlation between levels of social and economic
development spatially with Pakistan. Other important determinants of
regional variations in the level of social development include the
extent of urbanisation, the administrative development of the district
(location of provincial headquarters), and the geographical/economic
significance (indicated by the presence of the sea port). Overall,
Punjab appears to have the highest level of social development followed
by NWFP, Sindh and Balochistan. However, the results indicate
substantial variation among districts within a province in the level of
social development. Least developed districts within each province are
identified as targets for special development allocations within
SAP.
Ethnic Conflict in Pakistan: The Case of MQM
Authors: Waseem Mohammad
Published: August 2018

It has been argued that the current scholarship on ethnicity
is focused on the rise of ethnonationalism, without incorporating the
possibility and the nature of decline in its scope and intensity. An
absolute majority of such movements have indeeded been contained in the
postwar era. There is no reason to believe that this trend will reverse
in near future. In this context, one can point to Pakistan, Baloch and
Sindhi nationalist movements within Pakistan. Our discussion of the rise
of the mohajir movement in this paper provides clear indicators of the
potential determinants of its decline. It is significant that it is the
state at the non-policy level which created a situation of ethnic
explosion in urban Sindh. Various macro-level explosive issues revolving
around conflicts between politicians and army, federalist and provincial
forces, Islamist and secularist elements and, externally, India and
Pakistan seriously circumscribed the state’s capacity and will to persue
micro-level issues such as urban planning educational and manpower
strategies, rural-urban and inter provincial migration and investment in
mental infrastructure in general. The abdication of policy by the state
rendered it inactive and irrelevent. This ‘residual’ state was
represented by officials at the bottom level who controlled a vast
number of transactional activities outside the purview of law. Ethnicity
emerged as the new source of definition and categorisation of interests
and identity formation as the state defaulted on various counts such as
citizen orientations, legal protection and security of life and
property. In other words, it was not too much of the (Jacobin) state, as
primordialists would have us believe, but rather too little of it which
produced the mohajir ethnic consciousness. We can maintain that the
process of nativisation of mohajir is the product of multiple locational
and transactional activities which do not necessarily reflect state
policies.
Exchange Rate Determination in Pakistan: A Simultaneous Equation
Model
Authors: Siddiqui Rehana , Afridi Usman , Mahmood Zafar
Published: August 2018

In recent years the gap between real exchange rate (RER) and
nominal exchange rate (NER) has widened in Pakistan. A proper
understanding of the determinants of real exchange rate can be extremely
useful for the management of current account deficit. The results of
this study show that the Simultaneous Equation Model gives better
results than the Single Equation Model. The estimated coefficients
reveal that changes in both monetary and real sector variables affect
the equilibrium path of RER. The distinction between traded and
non-traded goods can also help in proper real exchange rate
management.
Shy/Silent Users of Contraceptives in Pakistan
Authors: Hashmi Sultan S.
Published: August 2018

Based on the data of three national surveys, 1984-85 Pakistan
Contraceptive Prevalence Survey (PCPS), 1990-91 Pakistan Demographic and
Health Survey (PDHS), and 1994-95 Pakistan Contraceptive Prevalence
Survey (PCPS), the hypothesis of shy/silent users is tested. These
surveys were undertaken with the collaboration of the Westing House,
IRD/Macro International and Local Office in Islamabad of the Population
Council, New York respectively. The concept of shy/silent users is
defined as those respondents who, at the time of interview, did not
divulge that they were users of contraceptive methods or traditional
ways of preventing conception or birth due to cultural reasons. All
three surveys show substantial numbers of shy/silent users. If these
numbers are included, the Current Prevalence Rate (CPR) of each survey
rises significantly. But the CPR inspite of including shy users, is
still far lower than most developing and neighbouring
countries.
Mother’s Health-seeking Behaviour and Childhood Mortality in
Pakistan
Authors: Zahid Ghulam Mustafa
Published: August 2018

The paper examines the Mother’s Health-seeking Behaviour and
Childhood Mortality in Pakistan. This is based on the 1990-91 Pakistan
Demographic and Health Survey (PDHS), a nationally representative survey
covering all four provinces of the country. It was found that neonatal,
infant, and child mortality rate is the highest among children of
mothers aged less than 20 years. Infant and Child mortality rate is
likewise higher among first and higher order births than among births of
second or third order. It has further found that mortality declines as
the length of the birth interval increases. The results reveal that the
education of mother has significant effect on the neonatal, infant and
child survival, as mother’s education increases the chances of survival
of neonatal, infant and child also increases. Health care factors such
as antenatal care, place of delivery, assistance at delivery and
immunisation also influenced neonatal, infant and child mortality. The
paper suggests that for the improvement of the health conditions of
children in Pakistan, first, it is necessary that the educational status
of the population in general, and of mothers in particular, should be
improved, and second, the health services should be accessible and
available for the promotion of health care practices.
Ethnic Fertility Differentials in Pakistan
Authors: Muhammad Ali
Published: August 2018

Pakistan is a country facing relatively high rates of
population growth due to high fertility and decline in mortality rates.
This is not only depleting scarce resources but also contributing
significantly to environmental degradation. It is, therefore, desirable
to know; why fertility rates in Pakistan remain high despite the
nationwide family planning coverage since 1965? The objective of this
study, therefore, is to establish trends and patterns of fertility among
different ethnic groups (on the basis of languages spoken) in Pakistan.
The study also explores the major reasons for different fertility
behaviour. This is because; there are variety of languages spoken
throughout the country having distinct norms, traditions and other
customs which directly or indirectly influence fertility and fertility
related decisions. The study found that the Balochi or Brohi speaking
women had the most children, Sindhi and Pushto speaking women are the
women with the second highest fertility levels, Punjabis with the lowest
and Urdu speaking almost matching them. The study attributes the high
fertility levels among some ethnic groups to low level of education,
lower age at first marriage, higher demand for children and greater
value placed on number of children. It is also found that fertility
levels are high among those ethnic groups who have little knowledge and
less use of contraceptives. On the basis of findings, study provides
guideline to policy-makers, planners and family planning personnel’s for
policy formation to facilitate reduction of fertility in particular
context and to target specific sub-groups of population.
Macroeconomic Policies and Management of Debt, Deficit, and
Inflation in Pakistan
Authors: Chaudhary Mohammad Aslam , Anjum Shahid Waseem
Published: August 2018

The study attempts to analyse the sustainability of fiscal
policy in Pakistan. Alternative foreign debt and domestic debt
strategies were analysed for formulating meaningful policy guidelines.
Such analysis was made consistent with other macro-economic variables
like growth of GNP, inflation, and interest rates on debt. Alongwith the
identifications of sustainable deficit, required deficit reduction in
the actual fiscal deficit under appropriate assumptions was also
estimated for three time periods: the 1980s, 1985–95 (recent past), and
1993–98 (the 8th plan period). The averages of the sustainable deficits
for the above- cited periods under alterantive scenarios were estimated
by utilising a sustainable deficit model for Pakistan. Our empirical
findings indicate that Pakistan has been following such macro-economic
policies pertaining to fiscal deficit as are not consistent with
sustainable deficit. For instance, during the 1980s, deficit of about
4.2 percent of GNP was sustainable against the actual fiscal deficit of
6.5 percent. During the recent past, sustainable deficit was about 5.4
percent of GNP against the actual deficit of 7.4 percent. It was planned
that during 1993–98, fiscal deficit will be restricted to 5.5 percent of
GNP and GNP growth was expected 7 percent per annum. However, during the
first three years of the 8th plan, GNP growth was only 3.6 percent per
annum. Our estimates indicated that sustainable fiscal deficit was only
2.7 percent of GNP for this period, given the above actual growth of the
economy. The above discussion provides important information regarding
unsustainability of fiscal deficit in Pakistan. Throughout the period
under analysis, fiscal deficit was not sustainable. As a result,
negative impacts of fiscal deficit on the economy were bound to emerge.
Our findings regarding sustainability of fiscal deficit have important
bearing on macroeconomic policies. Inflation, unemployment, increasing
burden of debt and debt-servicing are linked with fiscal deficit. Thus,
there is a need to keep the fiscal deficit within a limit; consistent
with other macro-economic variables like inflation and debt, etc. Doing
so may help to stabilise the economy and to solve the related economic
problems. In brief, fiscal deficit need to be reduced for sustainability
of the fiscal system and for stable economic growth.
Gender Differentials in the Cost of Primary Education: A Study of
Pakistan
Authors: Ismail Zafar H.
Published: August 2018

The paper examines the differences in the cost of primary
education by gender and by province. It shows that the growth in
enrolment outstrips the growth in the relevant population cohort, except
in Sindh, and that this is faster in the case of girls than boys; that
the school construction programme for girls in Sindh, unlike other
provinces, outstrips the growth in female teacher employment. This is
also seen in the boys’ school in Pakistan. Cost of providing education
are a function of the availability of teachers and schools, opportunity
cost of employment, urbanisation and female literacy. The growth in both
recurring and capital outlays and in output costs per student are higher
for girls and boys except in Balochistan. Using a pooled time series and
analysis the paper concludes that there is an optimal level for the
availability of schools per 1000 population [6.02 and 5.67 respectively
for girls and boys in the Punjab and 3.88 for boys in NWFP and
Balochistan] and for the number of teachers per 1000 students [7.69 for
girls and 3.36 for boys]. It suggests the policy prescription to
reallocate resources to employing more teachers for boys for greater
cost effectiveness.
Financial Sector Reform and Its Impact on Investment and Economic
Growth: An Econometric Approach
Authors: Hasan M. Aynul , Khan Ashfaque H. , Ali S. Sajid
Published: August 2018

The financial sector is central to economic development as it
serves the role of intermediary by mobilising savings and subsequently
allocating credit for productive activities. However, in many developing
countries including Pakistan, administered interest rate, domestic
credit controls, high reserve requirements, use of captive banking
system to finance large budgetary requirements of the government and
controls on international capital inflows have remained the main
features of the monetary policy. These repressive policies had their
repercussions in the form of excess liquidity with the banking system,
disintermediation of cash flows, segmentation of financial markets,
underdeveloped money and capital markets, etc. [McKinnon (1973) and Shaw
(1973)], therefore, argued that low interest rate ceilings unduly
restrict the real flow of loanable funds, thus depressing the quantity
of productive investment.
Capital Inflows and National Debt
Authors: Ahmad Eatzaz
Published: August 2018

Using a three-gap model, this paper simulates the future time
paths of resource deficits in Pakistan. The paper then show that the
policy of increasing the rate of return on foreign capital can reduce
foreign debt when foreign capital is sufficiently responsive to changes
in its rate of return. This, however, happens at the expense of
increasing domestic debt. The policy of selling public assets abroad
appears fruitless. The main benefit of this policy is a reduction in
domestic debt which can better be achieved by selling public assets
domestically.