Global Warming and the World's Oceans: The Millennium Outlook
Authors: Westbrook Gerald T. 
Published: October 2008

This paper will revisit the areas covered in earlier papers and provide an update of significant developments based on an additional years research and analysis on the hydrosphere, cryosphere and atmosphere. Additional spheres discussed include the biosphere and coral reefs, and the heliosphere and Earth's magnetosphere. The emphasis in this talk will again focus on the incompleteness of the science in several key areas. In spite of this situation, policy development continues on many fronts. A review will be made of on going policy developments on this issue, including the Bonn meeting in November, and the potential for U. S. ratification.

Introduction

Background.

At the 1998 OTC meeting, paper 8689 included a review of the hydrological cycle, an outline of sea level rise rates (both historical and forecasts), a discussion of estimated contributions to sea level rise by all sources (including lack of a contribution from Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets), and a reporting of the early and strong 97/98 El Nino.

At the 1999 OTC meeting, paper 10773 included the flagging of the key scientific tasks involved on the global warming issue: detection and attribution, noted the potential couple between cosmic rays and solar activity and clouds, bemoaned the hype associated with reports on the Larsen Ice Shelf and the West Antarctic Ice Sheets (WAIS), noted the couple between sea surface temperatures and solar activity, and reported on a possible recent trend toward a stronger thermohaline circulation (THC) with a possible link to an increase in the number of hurricanes.

Perspective on Global Warming - Some Useful Acronyms.

Perspective.

The Earth's average temperature today is about +15 °C. The Earth's temperature, minus any natural, background greenhouse, has been estimated at -18 °C. Hence today we are the beneficiaries of a background warming of about 33 °C caused by the level of natural greenhouse gases -H2Ov, CO2, and CH4. It has been estimated that H2Ov contributes about 96% of this effect. Clearly the public would see this background greenhouse effect as very positive.

The conditions during the Last Ice Age were about 6 - 9 °C less than today, and about 1.5 °C less during the Little Ice Age. Both of these periods were due to natural climate variation. Clearly the public would see this natural climate variation of up to 9 °C, from these frigid eras, as very positive.

But this viewpoint apparently changes dramatically over the thoughts of any additional warming of 3 °C, 2 °C or even 1 °C.

Two acronyms can be useful for remembering these categories of warming, namely:

The ABCs of Global Warming.

The 1999 paper reviewed the three origins of global warming: Anthropogenic based, Background warming that makes this planet livable and Climate variation caused by random or cyclical factors.

The DNA of Global Warming.

Another useful acronym is DNA. Here this means the ability to Distinguish between the Natural climate variation and Anthropogenic forces, hence the useful plagiarism of the DNA acronym.

Objective:

Highlight the Incompleteness of the Science.