АНАЛИТИЧЕСКОЕ ОБЕСПЕЧЕНИЕ ОЦЕНКИ ВЛИЯНИЯ КОРОНАВИРУСА (COVID-2019) НА НАЛОГОВУЮ БЕЗОПАСНОСТЬ РЕГИОНА
Authors: Шемякина М.С. , Мурзина Е.А. 
Published: February 2025

В статье представлены отдельные аспекты методики оценки влияния пандемии коронавируса на налоговую безопасность региона. Проблема исследуется на примере Республики Марий Эл. Рассматривается такая центральная угроза экономической безопасности, как неполное обеспечение налоговых поступлений на всех уровнях бюджетной системы. На основе предложенной методики был проведён отраслевой анализ структуры налоговых доходов консолидированного бюджета, определены отрасли, наиболее подверженные ограничительным мерам государства, и предложен подход к оцениванию последствий введения ограничительных мер. Авторами выделены индикаторы налоговой безопасности, на основании которых следует проводить дальнейший мониторинг.

Introduction. Sustainable development of a region is directly connected with assuring its tax security. The latest events in the global economy and health care service suggest there is a threat to tax security. The threat has never been described in the researches of scientists or considered to be the risk in the legislative acts of the state. The coronavirus pandemic made all the states take the drastic actions for the population protection: border closure, lockdown, quarantine, etc. The measures have a great impact on the economy. Therefore, the assessment of the impact was reported about in various sources, the academic literature is included. In this article the authors analyze the papers of Russian and foreign specialists studied the problem of interaction of social and economic-legal trends of the impact of coronavirus eruption on the global economy against the background of downturn in energy prices. The goal of the research is to organize the objective analytic data reflecting the condition of economic security in the region through the system of economic security indicators. The offered in the article methodology is based on the following stages: 1) branch analysis of the structure of tax payments in the region in order to define the branches that are more exposed to the risk in the failure to pay the tax revenues into the budget system; 2) analysis of measures taken by the Government of the Russian Federation and Government of the Republic of Mari El in response to the pandemic and their impact on the tax security of the region; 3) choice of indicators of tax security in the region with a view to monitor and define further strategy for the economy development. Results. The pursuit of the strategy for tax security assurance shall, first of all, take place in the context of solution of the priorities which is the support of good standing of the branches and sectors of the economy and regional budgets. The overall assessment of the economic benefits from the taken measures shall come before the government assistance. The tax security assurance of a public-law entity in the conditions of unexpected tax risks that are a direct threat for the budget system to lose the tax revenues shall, at the first stage, be the arrangement of the monitoring of indicators allowing to assess the depth of impact of unexpected risks. At that, reduction and prevention of such risks (smoothing) is the key mechanism ensuring the tax security in the region and is based on the selection of further strategy for economic development.