bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Assessment of climate change and land use development effects on dam reliability
Authors: Taherei Ghazvinei P. , Hassanpour Darvishi H. , Hashim R. B. , Musavi Jahromi S. H. , Aghamohammadi N.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. The purpose of this study was to assess long-term impacts of climate and land use change on a catchment runoff and dam overtopping dam reliability. Long hydrological time series (30 years) from six rainfall stations and one stream flow stations were analysed. A methodology combining common statistical methods with hydrological modelling was adopted in order to distinguish between the effects of climate and land use change and to present probabilistic assessment of overtopping reliability of the selected earth-fill dam. It is important to ensure that extreme meteorologically induced flood rises do not exceed dam crest level. Considering climate change factor, intensity-duration-frequency curves of the catchment were updated. In addition, in consistency with the areal development plan, year of 2020 was targeted to evaluate the effect of land use changes on the generation of storm runoff. Accordingly, compared with current imperviousness it was found that the areal imperviousness will be increased up to 4.5 % by the year of 2030. Step-by-step procedures were carried out in tandem to evaluate the hydrological performance of the spillway capacity in light of an extreme storm event of PMP / PMF magnitude. The HEC-HMS was applied to transform the PMPs to PMFs and estimate the outflows and corresponding flood rises over the crest level for all durations. A conventional reservoir routing procedure with modified technique was then carried out for all PMP / PMF durations; i.e., 1 to 120 h. Three cases of different floods were performed where the last case represented the most severe flood on the dam reservoir. The simulations indicated that the flood rises for all durations were lower than the embankment crest level. Although results showed marginally adequate capacity to allow safe passage of flood water of PMP / PMF magnitude, the dam safety in hydrological aspect was assured.
The impact of roads and sediment basins on simulated river discharge and sediment flux in an experimental catchment designed to improve ecosystem services
Authors: Saad S. I. , Mota da Silva J. , Rocha H. R.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. Payment of Environmental Services (PES) projects have grown our perception on the dependency of nature, yet the quantification and valuation of Environmental Services (ES) are key to evidence-base management. The modelling of the effect of deforestation in the water and sediment budgets of rural catchments usually prescribes baseline scenarios with fully pristine vegetation. Such comparison however is hardly associated with the landscape conditions where observational data is collected to provide model calibration. For example, the existence of unpaved roads and small water retention basins (containments) are potential controls of runoff and erosion in small catchments. This work shows the impact of roads and barraginhas (small sediment retention basins nearby the roads) on the water and sediment fluxes in a 12 km2 catchment area in Extrema city, Brazil, which provides water for the Cantareira System's water reservoirs that supply about 50 % for the Sao Paulo megacity, and enrolled in the Water Producer Program (Water National Agency) as the first Brazilian PES project. Simulations with the InVEST model using high spatial resolution (5 m × 5 m) included the description of unpaved roads and barraginhas. Calibration used river discharge and sediment flux estimated from water turbidity measurements. Sediment concentration was estimated both with the observation and simulations, and annual comparisons seemed reasonable for mean annual estimates. Unpaved roads produced sediment export 5 times higher compared to a scenario with no roads, and potentiated the effect of barraginhas on sediment reduction. This study showed the benefit from understanding effects of representation of the landscape particularities in modelling such as the roads, which apart from affecting calibration, are important issue for providing efficient modelling of the effect of the Best Management Practices in the landscape scale. We also demonstrated usefulness of our research methodology and its possible applications on simulations of sediment concentration and streamflow in InVEST with few samples of observed data and thus quantify the impacts of land use change on hydrology in any other watershed.
Towards simplification of hydrologic modeling: identification of dominant processes
Authors: Markstrom S. L. , Hay L. E. , Clark M. P.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. An application of the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System, a distributed-parameter hydrologic model, has been developed for the conterminous United States. In this study, two different aspects of the complexity in applying this model has been addressed: (1) the number of input parameters and (2) the interpretation of model output. Parameter sensitivity analysis was used to simplify the application of the hydrologic model through identification of parameters related to dominant hydrologic processes (baseflow, evapotranspiration, runoff, infiltration, snowmelt, soil moisture, surface runoff, and interflow) at various geog raphic scales. These processes correspond to variables for which objective functions (mean, autoregressive lag 1, and coefficient of variation) are computed. Categories of parameter sensitivity were developed in various ways, on the basis of geographic location, hydrologic process and model response. Visualization of these categories provide insight into model performance and useful information about how to structure the modeling application to take advantage of as much local information as possible. The results of this study indicates that (1) the choice of objective function and output variables have a strong influence on parameter sensitivity, (2) the dimensionality of distributed-parameter hydrology models can be reduced by removing input parameters, output variables and objective functions from consideration on the basis of selection by hydrological process, (3) different hydrological processes require different numbers of parameters for simulation, and (4) some model sensitive parameters influence only one hydrologic process, while others may influence many.
Using an integrated hydrological model to estimate the usefulness of meteorological drought indices in a changing climate
Authors: von Gunten Diane , Wöhling Thomas , Haslauer Claus P. , Merchán Daniel , Causapé Jesus , Cirpka Olaf A.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. Droughts are serious natural hazards, especially in semi-arid regions. They are also difficult to characterize. Various summary metrics representing the dryness level, denoted drought indices, have been developed to quantify droughts. They typically lump meteorological variables and can thus directly be computed from the outputs of regional climate models in climate-change assessments. While it is generally accepted that drought risks in semi-arid climates will increase in the future, quantifying this increase using climate model outputs is a complex process which depends on the choice and the accuracy of the drought indices, among other factors. In this study, we compare seven meteorological drought indices that are commonly used to predict future droughts. Our goal is to assess the reliability of these indices to predict hydrological impacts of droughts under changing climatic conditions. We simulate the hydrological responses of a small catchment in northern Spain to droughts in present and future climate, using an integrated hydrological model, calibrated for different irrigation scenarios. We compute the correlation of meteorological drought indices with the simulated hydrological times series (discharge, groundwater levels, and water deficit), and we compare changes in the relationships between hydrological variables and drought indices. While correlation coefficients are similar for all tested land-uses and climates, the relationship between drought indices and hydrological variables often differs between present and future climate. Drought indices based solely on precipitation often underestimate the hydrological impacts of future droughts, while drought indices that additionally include potential evapotranspiration sometimes overestimate the drought effects. In this study, the drought indices with the smallest bias were: the rainfall anomaly index, the reconnaissance drought index, and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index. However, the efficiency of these drought indices depends on the hydrological variable of interest and the irrigation scenario. We conclude that meteorological drought indices are able to identify the timing of hydrological impacts of droughts in present and future climate. However, these indices are not capable of estimating the severity of hydrological impacts of droughts in future climate. A well-calibrated hydrological model is necessary in this respect.
Trends in evaporative demand in Great Britain using high-resolution meteorological data
Authors: Robinson Emma L. , Blyth Eleanor M. , Clark Douglas B. , Finch Jon , Rudd Alison C.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. Observations of climate are often available on very different spatial scales from observations of the natural environments and resources that are affected by climate change. In order to help bridge the gap between these scales using modelling, a new dataset of daily meteorological variables was created at 1 km resolution over Great Britain for the years 1961–2012, by interpolating coarser resolution climate data and including the effect of local topography. These variables were used to calculate evaporative demand at the same spatial and temporal resolution, both excluding (PET) and including (PETI) the effect of water intercepted by the canopy. Temporal trends in evaporative demand were calculated, with PET found to increase in all regions and PETI found to increase in England. The trends were found to vary by season, with spring evaporative demand increasing by 14 % (11 % when the interception correction is included) in Great Britain over the dataset, while there is no statistically significant trend in other seasons. The trends in PET were attributed analytically to trends in the climate variables, with the spring trend in evaporative demand being driven by radiation trends, particularly by increasing solar radiation.
The referential grain size and effective porosity in the Kozeny–Carman model
Authors: Urumović K. , Urumović Sr. K.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. In this paper, the results of permeability and specific surface area analyses as functions of granulometric composition of various sediments (from silty clays to very well-graded gravels) are presented. The effective porosity and the referential grain size are presented as fundamental granulometric parameters expressing an effect of the forces operating on fluid movement through the saturated porous media. This paper suggests procedures for calculating referential grain size and determining effective (flow) porosity, which result in parameters that reliably determine the specific surface area and permeability. These procedures ensure the successful application of the Kozeny–Carman model up to the limits of validity of Darcy’s law. The value of effective porosity in the referential mean grain size function was calibrated within the range of 1.5 μm to 6.0 mm. The reliability of the parameters applied in the KC model was confirmed by a very high correlation between the predicted and tested hydraulic conductivity values (R2=0.99 for sandy and gravelly materials; R2=0.70 for clayey-silty materials). The group representation of hydraulic conductivity (ranging from 10–12 m/s up to 10–2 m/s) presents a coefficient of correlation of R2=0.97 for a total of 175 samples of various deposits. These results present new developments in the research of the effective porosity, the permeability and the specific surface area distributions of porous materials. This is important because these three parameters are critical conditions for successful groundwater flow modeling and contaminant transport. Additionally, from a practical viewpoint, it is very important to identify these parameters swiftly and very accurately.
Case-based formalization and reasoning method for knowledge in digital terrain analysis – Illustrated by determining the catchment area threshold for extracting drainage networks
Authors: Qin C.-Z. , Wu X.-W. , Jiang J.-C. , Zhu A.-X.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. Application of digital terrain analysis (DTA), which is typically a modeling process involving workflow building, relies heavily on DTA domain knowledge of the match between the algorithm (and its parameter settings) and the application context (including the target task, the terrain in the study area, the DEM resolution, etc.), which is referred to as application-context knowledge. However, existing DTA-assisted tools often cannot use application-context knowledge because this type of DTA knowledge has not been formalized to be available for inference in these tools. This situation makes the DTA workflow-building process difficult for users, especially non-expert users. This paper proposes a case-based formalization for DTA application-context knowledge and a corresponding case-based reasoning method. A case in this context consists of a series of indices that formalize the DTA application-context knowledge and the corresponding similarity calculation methods for case-based reasoning. A preliminary experiment to determine the catchment area threshold for extracting drainage networks has been conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. In the experiment, 124 cases of drainage network extraction (50 for evaluation and 74 for reasoning) were prepared from peer-reviewed journal articles. Preliminary evaluation results show that the proposed case-based method is a suitable way to use DTA application-context knowledge to achieve a marked reduction in the modeling burden for users.
Spatial variations of deep soil moisture and the influencing factors in the Loess Plateau, China
Authors: Fang X. N. , Zhao W. W. , Wang L. X. , Feng Q. , Ding J. Y. , Liu Y. X. , Zhang X.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. Soil moisture in deep soil layers is a relatively stable water resource for vegetation growth in the semi-arid Loess Plateau of China. Characterizing the spatial variations of deep soil moisture and its influencing factors at a moderate watershed scale is important to ensure the sustainability of vegetation restoration efforts. In this study, we focused on analyzing the spatial variation and factors influencing soil moisture content (SMC) in (0–500 cm) soil layers based on a soil moisture survey of the Ansai watershed, Yanan, Shannxi province. Our results can be divided into four main findings. (1) At the watershed scale, the higher spatial variation of deep SMC occurred at 0–20 cm, 120–140 cm and 480–500 cm in the vertical direction. At a comparable depth but in the horizontal direction, the spatial variation of deep SMC under native vegetation was much lower than that in human-managed vegetation and introduced vegetation. (2) The deep SMC in native vegetation and human-managed vegetation was significantly higher than that of introduced vegetation, and different degrees of soil desiccation occurred under all introduced vegetation types. (3) Taking the SMC condition of native vegetation as a reference for local control, soil could be divided into four layers: I) shallow rapid change layer (0–60 cm); II) main rainfall infiltration layer (60–220 cm); III) transition layer (220–400 cm); and IV) stable layer (400–500 cm). Positive and significant correlations existed between SMC at layers II, III and IV, and the correlations of the neighboring layer ranges were clearly stronger than that of nonadjacent depth ranges, although the SMC at shallow rapid change layer I showed a disconnect (i.e., no correlations) with those at the three other soil depth layers. (4) The influencing factors of deep SMC at the watershed scale varied with land management types. The main local controls of SMC variation were soil particle composition and annual average rainfall; human agricultural management measures can alter soil buck density, which contributes to higher deep SMC. In introduced vegetation, plant growth conditions, planting density, and litter water holding traits showed significant relationships with deep SMC. The results of this study are of practical significance for vegetation restoration strategies and the sustainability of restored ecosystems.
SWAT Modeling of Water Quantity and Quality in the Tennessee River Basin: Spatiotemporal Calibration and Validation
Authors: Wang Gangsheng , Jager Henriette I. , Baskaran Latha M. , Baker Tyler F. , Brandt Craig C.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. Model-data comparisons are always challenging, especially when working at a large spatial scale and evaluating multiple response variables. We implemented the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate water quantity and quality for the Tennessee River Basin. We developed three innovations to overcome hurdles associated with limited data for model evaluation: 1) we implemented an auto-calibration approach to allow simultaneous calibration against multiple responses, including intermediate response variables, 2) we identified empirical spatiotemporal datasets to use in our comparison, and 3) we compared functional patterns in landuse-nutrient relationships between SWAT and empirical data. Comparing monthly SWAT-simulated runoff against USGS data produced satisfactory median Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.83 and 0.72 for calibration and validation periods, respectively. SWAT-simulated water quality responses (sediment, TP, TN, and inorganic N) reproduced the seasonal patterns found in LOADEST data. SWAT-simulated spatial TN loadings were significantly correlated with empirical SPARROW estimates. The spatial correlation analyses indicated that SWAT-modeled runoff was primarily controlled by precipitation; sedimentation was controlled by topography; and NO3 and soluble P were highly influenced by land management, particularly the proportion of agricultural lands in a subbasin
Seasonal forecasting of hydrological drought in the Limpopo basin: A comparison of statistical methods.
Authors: Seibert Mathias , Merz Bruno , Apel Heiko
Published: January 2016

Abstract. The Limpopo basin in southern Africa is prone to droughts, which affect the livelihoods of millions of people in South Africa, Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Mozambique. Seasonal drought early warning is thus vital for the whole region. In this study, the predictability of hydrological droughts during the main runoff period from December to May is assessed with statistical approaches. Three methods (Multiple Linear Models, Artifical Neural Networks, Random Forest Regression Trees) are compared in terms of their ability to forecast streamflow with up to 12 months lead time. The following four main findings result from the study. 1) There are stations in the basin at which standardised streamflow is predictable with lead times up to 12 months. The results show high interstation differences of forecast skill but reach a coefficient of determination as high as 0.73 (cross validated). 2) A large range of potential predictors is considered in this study, comprising well established climate indices, customised teleconnection indices derived from sea surface temperatures, and antecedent streamflow as proxy of catchment conditions. El-Niño and customised indices, representing sea surface temperature in the Atlantic and Indian Ocean, prove to be important teleconnection predictors for the region. Antecedent streamflow is a strong predictor in small catchments (with median 42 % explained variance), whereas teleconnections exert a stronger influence in large catchments. 3) Multiple linear models show the best forecast skill in this study and the greatest robustness compared to artificial neural networks and Random Forest regression trees, despite their capabilities to represent non-linear relationships. 4) Employed in early warning the models can be used to forecast a specific drought level. Even if the coefficient of determination is low, the forecast models have a skill better than a climatological forecast, which is shown by analysis of receiver operating characteristics (ROC). Seasonal statistical forecasts in the Limpopo show promising results, and thus it is recommended to employ them complementary to existing forecasts in order to strengthen preparedness for droughts.
Platform to develop exhaust gas sensors manufactured by glass-solder-supported joining of sintered yttria-stabilized zirconia
Authors: Schubert F. , Wollenhaupt S. , Kita J. , Hagen G. , Moos R.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. A manufacturing process for a planar binary lambda sensor is shown. By joining the heating and the sensing components via glass soldering with a joining temperature of 850 °C, a laboratory platform has been established that allows the manufacturing of two independent parts in high-temperature co-fired ceramics technology (HTCC) with electrodes that are post-processed at lower temperatures, as is required for mixed-potential sensors. The final device is compared to a commercial sensor with respect to its sensing performance. Important processes and possible origins of problems as well as their solutions during sensor development are shown, including heater design and joining process.
A comparison among different Hill-type contraction dynamics formulations for muscle force estimation
Authors: Romero F. , Alonso F. J.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. Muscle is a type of tissue able to contract and, thus, shorten, producing a pulling force able to generate movement. The analysis of its activity is essential to understand how the force is generated to perform a movement and how that force can be estimated from direct or indirect measurements. Hill-type muscle model is one of the most used models to describe the mechanism of force production. It is composed by different elements that describe the behaviour of the muscle (contractile, series elastic and parallel elastic element) and tendon. In this work we analyze the differences between different formulations found in the literature for these elements. To evaluate the differences, a flexo-extension movement of the arm was performed, using as input to the different models the surface electromyography signal recorded and the muscle-tendon lengths and contraction velocities obtained by means of inverse dynamic analysis. The results show that the force predicted by the different models is similar and the main differences in muscle force prediction were observed at full-flexion. The results are expected to contribute in the selection of the different formulations of Hill-type muscle model to solve a specific problem.
An approach to build an event set of European windstorms based on ECMWF EPS
Authors: Osinski R. , Lorenz P. , Kruschke T. , Voigt M. , Ulbrich U. , Leckebusch G. C. , Faust E. , Hofherr T. , Majewski D.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. The properties of European windstorms under present climate conditions are estimated on the basis of surface wind forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) Ensemble Prediction System (EPS). While the EPS is designed to provide forecast information of the range of possible weather developments starting from the observed state of weather, we use its archive in a climatological context. It provides a large number of modifications of observed storm events and includes storms that did not occur in reality. Thus it is possible to create a large sample of storm events, which entirely originate from a physically consistent model, whose ensemble spread represents feasible alternative storm realizations of the covered period. This paper shows that the huge amount of identifiable events in the EPS is applicable to reduce uncertainties in a wide range of fields of research focusing on winter storms. Windstorms are identified and tracked in this study over their lifetime using an algorithm based on the local exceedance of the 98th percentile of instantaneous 10 m wind speed, which is associated with a storm severity measure. After removing inhomogeneities in the data set arising from major modifications of the operational system, the distributions of storm severity, storm size, and storm duration are computed. The overall principal properties of the homogenized EPS storm data set are in good agreement with storms from the ERA-Interim data set, making it suitable for climatological investigations of these extreme events. A demonstrated benefit in the climatological context by the EPS is presented. It gives clear evidence of a linear increase of maximum storm intensity and wind field size with storm duration. This relation is not recognizable from a sparse ERA-Interim sample for long-lasting events, as the number of events in the reanalysis is not sufficient to represent these characteristics.
Dynamic variability examination of Mediterranean frontogenesis: teleconnection of fronts and flood 2010
Authors: Munir B. A. , Imran H. A. , Ashraf I.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. An improved scheme for the detection of Mediterranean frontal activities is proposed, based on the identification of cloud pattern, thermal gradient and water content of air masses using Meteosat-7 satellite imagery. Owing to highly variable nature of fronts, spatial shift occurring over 1.5 years are analyzed. Full disc imagery of Meteosat-7 satellite is used for the analysis over vast geographical distribution of Eurasia. The study examined the fundamental characteristics of fronts and effects associated with Mediterranean fronts with the analysis for the flood event of 2010 in Pakistan. The results show seasonal as well as annual change in the range of lower and upper latitudinal limits of frontogenesis. Seasons of winter 2011 shows an increase in speed whereas a decrease is observed in summer. The identification process has shown a frontal span over northern areas of Pakistan during flood event of 2010 accentuating the monsoonal rainfall intensity all over the country. The result of this analysis can be used to estimate the behavior of the mid-latitudes global circulations. The anticipated outcome of this research study is the identification of abrupt nature of frontal processes.
Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment – Part 2: Different natural hazard areas
Authors: Beven K. J. , Almeida S. , Aspinall W. P. , Bates P. D. , Blazkova S. , Borgomeo E. , Goda K. , Phillips J. C. , Simpson M. , Smith P. J. , Stephenson D. B. , Wagener T. , Watson M. , Wilkins K. L.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. In each case it is common practice to treat most uncertainties in the form of aleatory probability distributions but this may lead to an underestimation of the resulting uncertainties in assessing the hazard, consequences and risk. It is suggested that such analyses might be usefully extended by looking at different scenarios of assumptions about sources of epistemic uncertainty, with a view to reducing the element of surprise in future hazard occurrences. Since every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of epistemic uncertainty it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in the companion Part 1 by setting out those assumptions in a condition tree.
SUstaiNability: a science communication website on environmental research
Authors: Gravina T. , Muselli M. , Ligrone R. , Rutigliano F.A.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. Social networks allow anyone to publish information; such a boundless possibility is useful for participatory journalism, but is highly prone to create/diffuse mistakes and misunderstandings in scientific issues. In 2013 we created a website (http://www.sunability.unina2.it) containing research products from Second University of Naples (Italy), and shared them on Facebook and Twitter to analyze the effectiveness of these platforms in science divulgation. The study suggests that (i) regular updating of websites enhances users' interest; (ii) Campania citizen are more interested in pollution than natural hazards. Our results strongly point to the need for direct involvement of researchers in web-mediated scientific dissemination.
Aerosol properties and meteorological conditions in the city of Buenos Aires, Argentina during the resuspension of volcanic ash from the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle eruption
Authors: Ulke A. G. , Torres Brizuela M. M. , Raga G. B. , Baumgardner D.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. The eruption in June 2011 of the Puyehue-Cordón Caulle Volcanic Complex in Chile impacted air traffic around the Southern Hemisphere for several months after the initial ash emissions. The ash deposited in vast areas of the Patagonian steppe was subjected to the strong wind conditions prevalent during the austral winter and spring, experiencing resuspension over various regions of Argentina. In this study we analyze the meteorological conditions that led to the episode of volcanic ash resuspension, which impacted the city of Buenos Aires and resulted in the closure of both airports on 16 October 2011. The thermodynamic soundings show the signature of "pulses of drying" associated with the presence of hygroscopic ash in the atmosphere that has been reported in similar episodes after volcanic eruptions in other parts of the world. Measurements of aerosol properties that were being carried out in the city during the resuspension episode indicate the presence of an enhanced concentration of aerosol particles in the boundary layer. Reports of ash on the runway at the airport near the measurement site correlate in time with the enhanced concentrations. Since the dynamics of ash resuspension and recirculation is similar to the dynamics of dust storms, we use the HYSPLIT model with the dust storm module to simulate the episode that affected Buenos Aires. The results of the modeling agree qualitatively with satellite lidar measurements.
Modeling ground deformation associated with the destructive earthquakes occurring on Mt. Etna's southeastern flank in 1984
Authors: Cannavò Flavio , Gambino Salvatore , Puglisi Biagio , Velardita Rosanna
Published: January 2016

Abstract. The Timpe Fault System is the source of very shallow but destructive earthquakes that affect several towns and villages on the eastern flank of Mt. Etna (Italy). In 1984, several seismic events, and specifically on October 25, caused one fatality, 12 injuries and produced serious damage in the Zafferana and Acireale territories. This seismicity was mainly related to the activity of the Fiandaca Fault, one of the structures belonging to the Timpe Fault System. We inverted ground deformation data collected by a geodimeter trilateration network set up in 1977 at a low altitude along the eastern side of the volcano in order to define the Timpe Fault System faulting mechanisms linked to the seismicity in 1984. We found that in the May 1980–October 1984 period, the Fiandaca Fault was affected by a strike slip and normal dip slip of about 27 and 23cm. This result is in fairly good accord with field observations of the co-seismic ground ruptures along the fault but it's notably large compared to displacements estimated by seismicity, then suggest ing that most of the slip over the fault plane was aseismic. The results once again confirm how seismicity and in particular ground ruptures represent a very high hazard to the several towns and villages situated along the Fiandaca Fault.
Characteristics of ground motion and threshold values for colluvium slope displacement induced by heavy rainfall: a case study in northern Taiwan
Authors: Jeng C.-J. , Sue D.-Z.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. The Huafan University campus is located in the Ta-Lun Shan area in northern Taiwan, which is characterized by a dip-slope covered by colluvium soil of various depths. For slope disaster prevention, a monitoring system was constructed that consisted of inclinometers, tiltmeters, crack gages, groundwater level observation wells, settlement and displacement observation marks, rebar strain gages, concrete strain gages, and rain gages. The monitoring data derived from hundreds of settlement and displacement observation marks were analyzed and compared with the displacement recorded by inclinometers. The analysis results revealed that the maximum settlement and displacement were concentrated on the areas around the Hui-Tsui, Zhi-An, and Wu-Ming Buildings and coincided with periods of heavy rainfall. The computer program STABL was applied for slope stability analysis and modeling of slope failure. For prevention of slope instability, a drainage system and tieback anchors with additional stability measures were proposed to discharge excess groundwater following rainfall. Finally, threshold value curves of rainfall based on slope displacement were proposed. The curves can be applied for predicting slope stability when typhoons are expected to bring heavy rainfall and should be significant in slope disaster prevention.
Overtopping breaching of river levees constructed with cohesive sediments
Authors: Wei H. Y. , Yu M. H. , Wang D. W. , Li Y. T.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. Experiments were conducted in a bend flume to study the overtopping breaching process and the corresponding overflow rate of river levees constructed with cohesive sediments. The river and land regions were separated by the constructed levee model in the bend flume. Results showed that the levee breaching process can be subdivided into a slope erosion stage, a headcut retreat stage and a breach widening stage. Mechanism such as scour-hole erosion, flow shear erosion, impinging jet erosion, side slope erosion and cantilever collapse were discovered in the breaching process. The erosion characteristics were determined by both flow and soil properties. Finally, the levee breaching flow rates were simulated by a depth averaged 2-D flow model. The calculated overflow rates can be well expressed by the broad-crested weir flow formula. The deduced discharge coefficient was smaller than that of common broad-crested rectangular weirs because of the shape and roughness of the breach.
Communication strategies to address geo-hydrological risks: the POLARIS web initiative in Italy
Authors: Salvati P. , Pernice U. , Bianchi C. , Marchesini I. , Fiorucci F. , Guzzetti F.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. Inundations and landslides are common phenomena that cause serious damage and pose a severe threat to the population of Italy. The societal and economic impact of landslides and floods in Italy is particularly severe, and strategies that target the mitigation of the effects of these events are essential. Although, in the last few years, the scientific community has wanted to communicate information on research activities regarding geo-hydrological hazards and the associated risks to society through thematic websites, very often, communication achieves specific technical purposes for experts. To address the problem posed by the lack of communication on geo-hydrological hazards with potential human consequences in Italy to the broader society, we designed the POLARIS website. The POLARIS website publishes accurate and detailed information on geo-hydrological risks, including periodical reports on landslide and flood risk to the population of Italy, data and analysis on specific damaging events and blog posts on landslide and flood events that able to encourage mass media and citizens' engagement. By monitoring the access of users to POLARIS since January 2014, when the website was published, we registered maximum access during the occurrence of the worst geo-hydrological events and for the promotion of relevant new content through press releases. In particular, in the latter case, we noted the highest access value when journalists promoted the website through television channels. The POLARIS initiative demonstrates how the scientific community can implement suitable communication strategies that address different societal audiences by exploiting the role of mass media and social media. These strategies can help these audiences to understand how risks can be reduced through appropriate measures and behaviors; thus, they can contribute to increasing the resilience of the population to geo-hydrological events.
First evaluation of the damage related to alluvial events in torrential catchments of Campania (southern Italy), based on a historical database
Authors: Vennari C. , Parise M. , Santangelo N. , Santo A.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. This study presents an historical database of alluvial events in torrential catchments of Campania region, southern Italy. Detailed scrutiny and critical analysis of the existing literature, and of the data inventory available, allowed us to build a robust database consisting of about 500 events. Being this study the first step of a longer project, aimed at eventually reaching an hazard analysis, information about time and site of occurrence are known for all the events. The outlet zone of torrential catchments (represented mainly by alluvial fans or fan deltas) are highly urbanized in Campania region, thus collecting information about past events could provide useful information on future events, in terms of damage, and of spatial and temporal occurrence as well. In section 1 we introduce the issue of alluvial events in Italy. Existing database and published studies on hydrogeological events, in particular regarding Campania region, are presented in section 2, where we also discuss the importance of using the historical sources, and their limits and drawbacks. The geological and geomorphological settings of Campania region are introduced in section 3. Then, in section 4, we present our database by illustrating its general structure and the methodology used in collecting information. Statistical and data analysis carried out on the collected data are presented in section 5. Aimed at performing a complete hazard analysis, analysis on rainfall data and the application of numerical models on alluvial events will be the future steps.
Applying IT Communication Technology in Public Awareness and Education for Reducing Hazard Casualty in South East Asia Developing Countries
Authors: Koay S. P. , Tay L. T. , Chan H. Y. , Jamaludin S. , Fukuoka H. , Hazarika H. , Sakai N. , Lateh H.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. In developing countries, especially most of South East Asia countries, every year landslides, mudslides and flood occur during monsoon rainy season and cause casualties not only in rural areas, but also in urban areas. Public awareness and education activities are important to reduce the casualties of such natural disasters. Nowadays, IT communication technology plays an important role in disseminating information and education. Lately, applying IT communication technology for public awareness on natural hazard becomes a trend among government authorities in these countries. We begin our study in Malaysia on how to reduce landslides casualty for future natural hazard management in These developing countries. For a better understanding on the occurrence of landslides, besides the mechnism On how landslides occur, collecting historical data with location coordinates were carried out and stored in database periodically. Public can browse these historical data via internet and know which areas are more prone to landslides occurrence. At the same time, IT communication technology was used to disseminate alert information after receiving rainfall intensity data from the monitering sites. It was also more efficient to conduct the public and school children awareness education by using such technology, as the simulation of rainfall induced slope failure mechanism and educational video on symptoms of landslides before they occur may give a clearer picture and better understanding to the public and school children.
GIS-based Real-time Framework of Debris Flow Hazard Assessment for Expressways in Korea
Authors: Chung C. K. , Kim H. S. , Kim S. R. , Kim K. S.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. Debris flows caused by heavy rainfall in mountain areas near expressways lead to severe social and economic loss and sometimes even result in casualties. However, in Korea, the design of road structures that resist these debris flow incidents are generally not carried out in a systematic way with proper concepts or procedures. Therefore, the development of a real-time system for debris flow hazard assessment is necessary to provide preliminary information for rapid decision making of evacuations or restoration measures, and to prevent second-hand disasters caused by debris flows. Recently, various map-based approaches have been proposed using multi-attribute criteria and assessment methods for debris flow susceptibilities. However, for the macro-zonation of debris flow hazards at a national scale, a simplified method such as the Korea Expressway Corporation debris flow hazard assessment method is appropriate and also applicable for systemization based on GIS and monitoring networks. In this study, a GIS-based real-time framework of debris flow hazards for expressway sections was newly proposed based on the KEC debris flow hazard assessment method. First, the KEC-based method was standardized in a systematic fashion using ESRI ArcGIS, enabling the objective and quantitative acquisition of various attribute datasets. Also, for a more precise assessment, the quantification of rainfall criteria was considered. Finally, a safety management system for debris flow hazards was developed based on a GIS platform, and was applied and verified on three expressway sections in Korea.
From geoscientific "matters of fact" to societal "matters of concern": a transdisciplinary training approach to communicating earthquake risk in Istanbul (Turkey)
Authors: Ickert J. , Stewart I. S.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. An important paradox of hazard communication is that the more effectively a potential physical threat is made public by the scientist, the more readily the scientific message becomes normalised into the daily discourses of ordinary life. As a result, a heightened risk awareness does not necessarily motivate personal or collective preparedness. If geoscientists are to help at-risk communities adopt meaningful measures to protect themselves, new strategies are needed for public communication and community engagement. This paper outlines an attempt to develop a transdisciplinary approach to train geoscientists, using early career researchers in an EU integrated training network studying tectonic processes and geohazards in Turkey. An urban field visit to seismically-vulnerable neighbourhoods in Istanbul allowed a group of young geoscience researchers to meet with local residents facing the seismic threat. Those meetings exposed the complex social, political and cultural concerns among Istanbul's at-risk urban communities. These concerns were used to provoke subsequent roundtable discussions among the group of geoscientists about the roles and responsibilities of communicating hazard information to the public. Through the direct testimony of local residents and geoscientists, we explore the form that new strategies for public communication and community engagement might take
Complex environmental β-plane turbulence: laboratory experiments with altimetric imaging velocimetry
Authors: Matulka A. M. , Zhang Y. , Afanasyev Y. D.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. Results from the spectral analyses of the flows in two experiments where turbulent flows were generated in a rotating tank with a topographic β-effect are presented. The flows were forced either by heating water from below or supplying fresh water at the top of a saline layer. The flow was essentially barotropic in the first experiment and baroclinic in the second experiment. The gradient of the surface elevation was measured using optical altimetry (altimetric imaging velocimetry). Multiple zonal jets of alternating direction were observed in both experiments. Turbulent cascades of energy exhibit certain universal properties in spite of the different natures of flows in the experiments.
Bio-optical characterization and light availability parameterization in Uummannaq Fjord and Vaigat–Disko Bay (West Greenland)
Authors: Holinde L. , Zielinski O.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. This study investigated the bio-optical conditions of Uummannaq Fjord and Vaigat–Disko Bay, two neighboring, semi-enclosed coastal systems in West Greenland. Though close to each other, the systems differ in their hydrographic structure influencing the bio-optical conditions and, subsequently, the biological activities. Both systems showed high inorganic suspended particulate matter (SPMi) concentrations near river runoff or meltwater influxes (max. of 15.28 mg L−1 at the surface) and low colored dissolved organic matter (aCDOM@350nm, < 1.50 m−1) abundance throughout the systems. High chlorophyll levels (as an indicator of phytoplankton biomass) were measured in the Vaigat (max. of 11.44 µg L−1), which represents the outflow arm of Disko Bay. Light penetration depth as indicated by the 1 % depth of photosynthetically available radiation (PAR) was dominated by chlorophyll and SPMi alike, ranging from 12.2 to 41.2 m. Based on these characteristics, an effective two-component parameterization for the diffuse attenuation coefficient kPAR was developed in order to model light penetration depth as a relevant factor for bio-optical studies in Arctic environments under glacial meltwater influence.
The Civitavecchia Coastal Environment Monitoring System (C-CEMS): a new tool to analyze the conflicts between coastal pressures and sensitivity areas
Authors: Bonamano S. , Piermattei V. , Madonia A. , Paladini de Mendoza F. , Pierattini A. , Martellucci R. , Stefanì C. , Zappalà G. , Caruso G. , Marcelli M.
Published: January 2016

Abstract. The understanding of the coastal environment is fundamental for efficiently and effectively facing the pollution phenomena as expected by the Marine Strategy Framework Directive, and for limiting the conflicts between anthropic activities and sensitivity areas, as stated by Maritime Spatial Planning Directive. To address this, the Laboratory of Experimental Oceanology and Marine Ecology developed a multi-platform observing network that has been in operation since 2005 in the coastal marine area of Civitavecchia (Latium, Italy) where multiple uses and high ecological values closely coexist. The Civitavecchia Coastal Environment Monitoring System (C-CEMS), implemented in the current configuration, includes various components allowing one to analyze the coastal conflicts by an ecosystem-based approach. The long-term observations acquired by the fixed stations are integrated with in situ data collected for the analysis of the physical, chemical and biological parameters of the water column, sea bottom and pollution sources detected along the coast. The in situ data, integrated with satellite observations (e.g., temperature, chlorophyll a and TSM), are used to feed and validate the numerical models, which allow the analysis and forecasting of the dynamics of pollutant dispersion under different conditions. To test the potential capabilities of C-CEMS, two case studies are reported here: (1) the analysis of fecal bacteria dispersion for bathing water quality assessment, and (2) the evaluation of the effects of the dredged activities on Posidonia meadows, which make up most of the two sites of community importance located along the Civitavecchia coastal zone. The simulation outputs are overlapped by the thematic maps showing bathing areas and Posidonia oceanica distribution, thus giving a first practical tool that could improve the resolution of the conflicts between coastal uses (in terms of stress produced by anthropic activities) and sensitivity areas.