bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Deciding When to Quit: Reference-Dependence over Slot Machine Outcomes
Authors: Lien Jaimie W. , Zheng Jie
Published: May 2015

We conduct tests for reference dependent loss aversion using slot machine gamblers' decisions on when to quit playing for a visit to a casino. Evidence for a lagged status-quo reference point is found in the aggregate, while endogenously determined reference points are found when conditioning on betting intensity choices. Significant deviations from the distributions implied by random quitting support the loss aversion and diminishing sensitivity hypotheses.
Loss Aversion in Post-Sale Purchases of Consumer Products and their Substitutes
Authors: Ray Debajyoti , Shum Matthew , Camerer Colin F.
Published: May 2015

This paper considers the measurement of consumer loss aversion in product markets. We introduce a test based on a “substitution effect,” focusing on how the end of a sale affects sales not of the good itself, but a substitute good. Such an effect cannot be easily confounded with consumer stockpiling. Using a unique dataset from an online hardware retailer, we find evidence consistent with consumer loss aversion. Moreover, we find that less experienced consumers suffer a more prominent loss aversion bias compared to more experienced consumers.
Bankruptcy Rates among NFL Players with Short-Lived Income Spikes
Authors: Carlson Kyle , Kim Joshua , Lusardi Annamaria , Camerer Colin F.
Published: May 2015

We test for consumption smoothing using bankruptcy data on players in the National Football League (NFL), who typically earn several million dollars during an income spike that lasts a few years. The life-cycle hypothesis predicts that players should save substantially while playing and then have little risk of bankruptcy post-NFL. However, players in our sample begin to file for bankruptcy soon after they stop playing and continue filing at a high rate through at least the first 12 years of retirement. Players' total earnings and career lengths have surprisingly little effect on the risk of bankruptcy.
Effects of Immigrant Legalization on Crime
Authors: Baker Scott R.
Published: May 2015

I examine the effects that the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA), which legalized almost 3 million immigrants, had on crime in the United States. I exploit the IRCA's quasi-random timing as well as geographic variation in the intensity of treatment to isolate causal impacts. I find decreases in crime of 3-5 percent, primarily due to decline in property crimes, equivalent to 120,000-180,000 fewer violent and property crimes committed each year due to legalization. I calibrate a labor market model of crime, finding that much of the drop in crime can be explained by greater labor market opportunities among applicants.
How Well is US Intrafirm Trade Measured?
Authors: Ruhl Kim J.
Published: May 2015

Using two independent data sources—the intrafirm trade data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the related party trade data from the US Census Bureau—I construct and compare measures of US intrafirm exports and imports. I find that, in general, the two datasets provide similar measures of US intrafirm trade, particularly for exports. Understanding the differences that do exist in measurement will likely require study of the confidential micro data at both the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the Census Bureau.
Behavioral Economics and Public Policy 102: Beyond Nudging
Authors: Bhargava Saurabh , Loewenstein George
Published: May 2015

Policymakers have recently embraced Behavioral Economics as an alternative approach which recognizes the limits and consequences of human decision-making. Early applications of BE (“nudges”) produced notable successes and helped to set the stage for more aggressive applications aimed at the deeper causes of policy problems. We contend that policies that aspire to simplify products and incentives, rather than choice environments, aggressively protect consumers from behavioral exploitation, and leverage BE to enhance the design and implementation of traditional policy instruments offer solutions commensurate with contemporary challenges. Case studies in health insurance, privacy, and climate change illustrate the application of these ideas.
Markup and Cost Dispersion across Firms: Direct Evidence from Producer Surveys in Pakistan
Authors: Atkin David , Chaudhry Azam , Chaudry Shamyla , Khandelwal Amit K. , Verhoogen Eric
Published: May 2015

Researchers typically invoke theoretical assumptions to estimate mark-ups. Instead, we directly obtain mark-ups by surveying Pakistani soccer-ball producers. We document six facts: (i) Mark-ups are more dispersed than costs; (ii) Mark-ups and costs increase with firm size; (iii) The mark-up elasticity with respect to size exceeds the cost elasticity; (iv) Costs increase with size because larger firms use higher-quality inputs; (v) Larger firms charge higher mark-ups because they have higher production shares of high-quality balls that carry higher mark-ups, and because they charge higher mark-ups conditional on ball type; (vi) Correlations suggest marketing efforts are important for generating higher mark-ups.
Trade Liberalization and the Skill Premium: A Local Labor Markets Approach
Authors: Dix-Carneiro Rafael , Kovak Brian K.
Published: May 2015

We develop a specific-factors model of regional economies that includes two types of workers, skilled and unskilled. The model delivers a simple equation relating trade-induced local shocks to changes in local skill premia. We apply the methodology to Brazil's early 1990s trade liberalization and find statistically significant but modest effects of liberalization on the evolution of the skill premium between 1991 and 2010. The methodology uses widely available household survey data and can easily be applied to other countries and liberalization episodes.
Heterogeneity in the Impact of Economic Cycles and the Great Recession: Effects within and across the Income Distribution
Authors: Bitler Marianne , Hoynes Hilary
Published: May 2015

In this paper, we examine the effects of economic cycles on low-to moderate-income families. We use variation across states and over time to estimate the effects of cycles on the distribution of income, using fine gradations of the household income-to-poverty ratio. We also explore how the effects of cycles affect the risk of falling into poverty across demographic groups, focusing on age, race/ethnicity, and family type. We conclude by testing to see whether these relationships have changed in the Great Recession. We discuss the results in light of the changes in the social safety net in recent decades.
Changes in Safety Net Use During the Great Recession
Authors: Anderson Patricia M. , Butcher Kristin F. , Schanzenbach Diane Whitmore
Published: May 2015

We examine how participation in social safety net programs differs by income-to-poverty levels, and how that relationship changed after the Great Recession. We define income-to-poverty based on the average of 2 years of merged CPS data, and investigate program participation among households with income less than 300 percent of poverty. We find changes in both the level and distribution of safety-net program participation during the Great Recession, with SNAP expanding most at the bottom, the EITC expanding most in the middle, and UI expanding most at the top of the income ranges that we investigate; TANF did not expand.
Capital Taxation in the Twenty-First Century
Authors: Auerbach Alan J. , Hassett Kevin
Published: May 2015

In his influential book, Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Thomas Piketty argues forcefully that rising wealth and wealth inequality is an inherent characteristic of capitalist economies and calls for strong policy responses, in particular a substantial wealth tax implemented globally. This paper takes issue with the facts, logic, and policy conclusions in Piketty's book, suggesting that the factors needed to support the inexorable rise in capital's share and concentration are lacking and that among tax policy reforms aimed at dealing with economic inequality a wealth tax finds little support either in Piketty's own work or elsewhere in the literature.
About Capital in the Twenty-First Century
Authors: Piketty Thomas
Published: May 2015

In this article, I present three key facts about income and wealth inequality in the long run emerging from my book Capital in the Twenty-First Century and seek to sharpen and refocus the discussion about those trends. In particular, I clarify the role played by r > g in my analysis of wealth inequality. I also discuss some of the implications for optimal taxation, and the relation between capital-income ratios and capital shares.
Earnings, Disposable Income, and Consumption of Allowed and Rejected Disability Insurance Applicants
Authors: Kostøl Andreas Ravndal , Mogstad Magne
Published: May 2015

Two key questions in thinking about the size and growth of the disability insurance program are to what extent it discourages work, and how valuable the insurance is to individuals and families. These questions motivate our paper. We begin by describing the earnings, disposable income, and consumption of awarded and rejected DI applicants, before and after the disability onset and the allowance decision. Next, we discuss how these descriptive results can be interpreted through the lens of alternative empirical approaches. Our analysis uses a Norwegian population panel data set with detailed information about every individual and household.
Recall Expectations and Duration Dependence
Authors: Nekoei Arash , Weber Andrea
Published: May 2015

Using novel administrative data from Austria, we investigate the nature of temporary layoffs and recalls. We find that on average jobs ending in temporary layoffs lasted shorter but paid higher wages. The majority of temporarily laid-off workers return to their previous employer, but also one-fifth of those permanently laid-off are recalled. Compared to job switchers, recalls have shorter unemployment spells and do not experience wage losses. Negative duration dependence of unemployment only appears once recall exits are excluded for temporary and permanent layoffs. However, for temporary layoffs, the aggregate pattern masks significant heterogeneity by pre-unemployment tenure. Additional survey evidence suggests a lower average search level for temporary layoffs.
Mathiness in the Theory of Economic Growth
Authors: Romer Paul M.
Published: May 2015

Mathiness lets academic politics masquerade as science. Like mathematical theory, mathiness uses a mixture of words and symbols, but instead of making tight links, it leaves ample room for slippage between statements in the languages of words as opposed to symbols, and between statements with theoretical as opposed to empirical content. Because it is difficult to distinguish mathiness from mathematical theory, the market for lemons tells us that the market for mathematical theory might collapse, leaving only mathiness as entertainment that is worth little but cheap to produce.
Lessons from Schumpeterian Growth Theory
Authors: Aghion Philippe , Akcigit Ufuk , Howitt Peter
Published: May 2015

By operationalizing the notion of creative destruction, Schumpeterian growth theory generates distinctive predictions on important microeconomic aspects of the growth process (competition, firm dynamics, firm size distribution, cross-firm and cross-sector reallocation) which can be confronted using rich micro data. In this process the theory helps reconcile growth with industrial organization and development economics.
Globalization and Growth
Authors: Grossman Gene M. , Helpman Elhanan
Published: May 2015

How does globalization affect economic growth? We discuss mechanisms that link international integration to the incentives for knowledge accumulation and the efficacy of that process. First, integration facilitates the flow of knowledge across national borders. Second, integration affords innovators a larger potential market even as it subjects them to additional competition from foreign rivals. Third, integration encourages specialization according to comparative advantage. Finally, integration affects the incentives for technological diffusion. Taken together, the literature offers many theoretical insights. Some progress has also been made on the empirical side, although data and methodological impediments have left assessment and measurement lagging behind.
History and the Sizes of Cities
Authors: Bleakley Hoyt , Lin Jeffrey
Published: May 2015

We contrast evidence of urban path dependence with efforts to analyze calibrated models of city sizes. Recent evidence of persistent city sizes following the obsolescence of historical advantages suggests that path dependence cannot be understood as the medium-run effect of legacy capital but instead as the long-run effect of equilibrium selection. In contrast, a different, recent literature uses stylized models in which fundamentals uniquely determine city size. We show that a commonly used model is inconsistent with evidence of long run persistence in city sizes and propose several modifications that might allow for multiplicity and thus historical path dependence.
Declining Mortality Inequality within Cities during the Health Transition
Authors: Costa Dora L. , Kahn Matthew E.
Published: May 2015

In the United States in the late 19th and early 20th century, large cities had extremely high death rates from infectious disease. Within major cities such as New York City and Philadelphia, there was significant variation at any point in time in the mortality rate across neighborhoods. Between 1900 and 1930 neighborhood mortality convergence took place in New York City and Philadelphia. We document these trends and discuss their consequences for neighborhood quality of life dynamics and the economic incidence of who gains from effective public health interventions.
Why Do Firms Have “Purpose”? The Firm's Role as a Carrier of Identity and Reputation
Authors: Henderson Rebecca , Steen Eric Van den
Published: May 2015

This article develops a theory in which a firm's adoption of a prosocial purpose can increase profitability by strengthening employees' reputation and identity—leading to higher effort and lower wages—as long as implementing purpose is costly with respect to direct monetary payoffs. Employees who value prosocial action will select into firms with a social purpose, which then become a visible carrier for these employees' identity and reputation.
Formal Measures in Informal Management: Can a Balanced Scorecard Change a Culture?
Authors: Gibbons Robert , Kaplan Robert S.
Published: May 2015

We extend traditional agency theory by exploring the roles for formal measures when managerial behavior is not governed by rules, formulas, or contracts. Part I describes relational incentive contracts with informal weights on formal performance measures. More importantly, it also explores how formal measures could be used in models of informal management, such as adaptation and coordination, politics and influence, leadership, and informal authority. Part II considers the benefits from allowing key stakeholders to develop their own, potentially inferior, performance measures. The collaboration to create a “balanced scorecard” of performance measures can help change an organization's culture.
Understanding Ethnic Identity in Africa: Evidence from the Implicit Association Test (IAT)
Authors: Lowes Sara , Nunn Nathan , Robinson James A. , Weigel Jonathan
Published: May 2015

We use a variant of the Implicit Association Test (IAT) to examine individuals' implicit attitudes towards various ethnic groups. Using a population from the Democratic Republic of Congo, we find that the IAT measures show evidence of an implicit bias in favor of one's own ethnicity. Individuals have implicit views of their own ethnic group that are more positive than their implicit views of other ethnic groups. We find this implicit bias to be quantitatively smaller than the (explicit) bias one finds when using self-reported attitudes about different ethnic groups.
Loyalty, Exit, and Enforcement: Evidence from a Kenya Dairy Cooperative
Authors: Casaburi Lorenzo , Macchiavello Rocco
Published: May 2015

Organizations depend on members' “loyalty” for their success. Studying a cooperative's attempt to increase deliveries by members, we show that the threat of sanctions leads to highly heterogeneous response among members. Despite the cooperative not actually enforcing the threatened sanctions, positive effects for some members persist for several months. Other members “exit,” stopping delivering altogether. Among non-compliant members we document substantial heterogeneity in beliefs about the legitimacy of the sanctions. This lack of common understanding highlights the role played by managers in organizations and provides a candidate explanation for lack of sanctions enforcement documented by Ostrom (1990) and other studies.
Ex Post (In) Efficient Negotiation and Breakdown of Trade
Authors: Iyer Rajkamal , Schoar Antoinette
Published: May 2015

This paper examines frictions in contract renegotiation and its implications for allocative efficiency of contracts. Using a novel audit study methodology, we find that contracting parties in general are reluctant to engage in hold up. However, many efficient renegotiations of contracts also do not happen for the fear of being seen as extracting surplus. We also find that ex ante contracts are structured to mitigate losses arising from breach risk rather than hold up. The results also highlight that role of norms of fairness and reputation concerns in sustaining transactions in settings where contracts are primarily incomplete.
The Catch-22 of External Validity in the Context of Constraints to Firm Growth
Authors: Fischer Greg , Karlan Dean
Published: May 2015

We document the presence of multiple and varied constraints to small and medium firm growth. This presents both a practical problem for business training programs and a challenge to academic economists trying to identify mechanisms though which these programs may affect outcomes. External validity needs theory. This pushes researchers to narrowly defined and highly selected sample frames, which limits the potential for clear, generalizable policy prescriptions. Ultimately, larger samples, multi-arm evaluations, process documentation, and narrowly-focused, theory-supported empirical work are all needed, but the complexity of the problem limits what we learn from any single study.
Messaging and the Mandate: The Impact of Consumer Experience on Health Insurance Enrollment Through Exchanges
Authors: Cox Natalie , Handel Benjamin , Kolstad Jonathan , Mahoney Neale
Published: May 2015

The ability of web-based retailers to learn about and provide targeted consumer experiences is touted as an important distinction from traditional retailers. In principal, web-based insurance exchanges could benefit from these advantages. Using data from a large-scale experiment by a private sector health insurance exchange we estimate the returns to experimentation and targeted messaging. We find significant improvements in conversions in one treatment tested. Underlying the average impact were both intertemporal and demographic heterogeneity. We estimate that learning and targeted messaging could increase insurance applications by approximately 13 percent of the baseline conversion rate.
Narrow Networks on the Health Insurance Exchanges: What Do They Look Like and How Do They Affect Pricing? A Case Study of Texas
Authors: Dafny Leemore , Hendel Igal , Wilson Nathan
Published: May 2015

The Affordable Care Act has engendered significant changes in the design of health insurance products. We examine the “narrowness” of hospital networks affiliated with plans offered in the first year of the marketplaces. Using data from Texas, we find limited evidence of a tight link between pricing and a simple measure of network breadth, or a more complex measure of network value derived from a logit model of hospital choice. The state's largest insurer priced its narrow networks at a fairly constant discount relative to its broad networks, notwithstanding significant variation in its broad-narrow gap across geographic markets in Texas.
Measuring Consumer Valuation of Limited Provider Networks
Authors: Ericson Keith Marzilli , Starc Amanda
Published: May 2015

We measure the breadth of insurance networks in the Massachusetts health insurance exchange. Using our measures, we estimate consumer willingness-to-pay for broad and narrow networks. We find that consumers have a wide range of plans available with dramatically different networks. While consumers value broader networks, their willingness-to-pay is smaller than the brand premium, indicating an additional role for brand preferences. Consumers place additional value on star hospitals, which may affect upstream negotiations. Finally, we find significant geographic heterogeneity in the value of broad networks.
The Impact of Market Size and Composition on Health Insurance Premiums: Evidence from the First Year of the Affordable Care Act
Authors: Dickstein Michael J. , Duggan Mark , Orsini Joe , Tebaldi Pietro
Published: May 2015

Under the Affordable Care Act, individual states have discretion in how they define coverage regions, within which insurers must charge the same premium to buyers of the same age, family structure, and smoking status. We exploit variation in these definitions to investigate whether the size of the coverage region affects outcomes in the ACA marketplaces. We find large consequences for small and rural markets. When states combine small counties with neighboring urban areas into a single region, the included rural markets see 0.6 to 0.8 more active insurers, on average, and savings in annual premiums of between $200 and $300.
Why Don't Present-Biased Agents Make Commitments?
Authors: Laibson David
Published: May 2015

Present-biased preferences engender a demand for commitment. Commitment is a problematic prediction, since we see so little of it. I quantitatively explore the reasons for the “missing” commitment. Extending the procrastination model in Carroll et al. (2009), I show how equilibrium commitment is related to (i) the standard deviation of the opportunity cost of time, (ii) the cost of delay, (iii) the degree of partial naivete, and (iv) the direct cost of commitment. The calibrated model demonstrates that the perceived benefits of commitment are often overwhelmed by the costs of commitment. Demand for commitment is a special case rather than the general case.
Present Bias: Lessons Learned and To Be Learned
Authors: O'Donoghue Ted , Rabin Matthew
Published: May 2015

While present bias is an old idea, it only took hold in economics following David Laibson's (1994) dissertation. Over the past 20 years, research has led to a much better theoretical understanding of present bias, when and how to apply it, and which ancillary assumptions are appropriate in different contexts. Empirical analyses have demonstrated how present bias can improve our understanding of behavior in various economic field contexts. Nonetheless, there is still much to learn. In this paper, we give our assessment of some lessons learned, and to be learned.
Judging Experimental Evidence on Dynamic Inconsistency
Authors: Sprenger Charles
Published: May 2015

This article briefly summarizes and judges recent experimental developments exploring the predictions of dynamically inconsistent models. An opinion is provided as to how the literature may evolve given these recent advances.
Living Arrangements, Doubling Up, and the Great Recession: Was This Time Different?
Authors: Bitler Marianne , Hoynes Hilary
Published: May 2015

The Great Recession marks the worst downturn since those of the early 1980s. A large literature considers how the public safety net responded to this shock. We instead consider the responsiveness of one dimension of the private safety net. Families can react to negative shocks by moving in with relatives or downsizing. We use across-state over-time variation to estimate the effects of cycles on living arrangements, paying particular attention to young adults. We find living arrangements are cyclical, but effects are small. Surprisingly given the press attention, we find no evidence that things are different in the Great Recession.
Lending Booms, Smart Bankers, and Financial Crises
Authors: Thakor Anjan
Published: May 2015

This paper develops a theory that explains why financial crises follow profitable lending booms. When agents exhibit the “availability heuristic” and there is a long period of banking profitability, all agents—banks, their investors, and regulators—end up in an “availability cascade,” overestimating bankers' risk-management skills and underestimating the probability that observed outcomes are due to good luck. Consequently, banks profitably invest in riskier assets. Subsequently, if a public signal reveals that outcomes are luck-driven, investors withdraw funds, liquidity evaporates, and a crisis ensues. A loan resale market improves liquidity but increases the probability of a crisis.
Neglected Risks: The Psychology of Financial Crises
Authors: Gennaioli Nicola , Shleifer Andrei , Vishny Robert
Published: May 2015

We model a financial market in which investor beliefs are shaped by representativeness. Investors overreact to a series of good news, because such a series is representative of a good state. A few bad news do not change investor minds because the good state is still representative, but enough bad news leads to a radical change in beliefs and a financial crisis. The model generates debt over-issuance, “this time is different” beliefs, neglect of tail risks, under- and over-reaction to information, boom-bust cycles, and excess volatility of prices in a unified psychological model of expectations.
Does a Bank's History Affect Its Risk-Taking?
Authors: Bouwman Christa H. S. , Malmendier Ulrike
Published: May 2015

We ask whether past macro-economic and bank-specific shocks experienced and survived by a bank affect its current capitalization and risk-taking. Using Call Report data from 1984 to 2010, we find that a bank's experience shapes its capital structure and risk appetite. Banks that have survived periods of undercapitalization tend to implement higher equity ratios and take less risk in the periods following such crises, as measured by net charge-offs, non-performing loans, or earnings volatility 10-25 years later. However, observing high rates of failure among other banks stirs banks in the opposite direction. The evidence is suggestive of institutional memory affecting banks' capital and risk-taking.
Growth, Pollution, and Life Expectancy: China from 1991–2012
Authors: Ebenstein Avraham , Fan Maoyong , Greenstone Michael , He Guojun , Yin Peng , Zhou Maigeng
Published: May 2015

This paper examines the relationship between income, pollution, and mortality in China from 1991-2012. Using first-difference models, we document a robust positive association between city-level GDP and life expectancy. We also find a negative association between city-level particulate air pollution exposure and life expectancy that is driven by elevated cardiorespiratory mortality rates. The results suggest that while China's unprecedented economic growth over the last two decades is associated with health improvements, pollution has served as a countervailing force.
Pay as You Go: Prepaid Metering and Electricity Expenditures in South Africa
Authors: Jack B. Kelsey , Smith Grant
Published: May 2015

High rates of customer default on utility bills present a barrier to the expansion of electricity access in the developing world. Pre-paid electricity metering offers a technological solution to ensuring timely payment. Using an eleven-year panel of pre-paid electricity customers in Cape Town, South Africa, we describe patterns of purchase behavior across property values, our measure of socioeconomic status. Poorer households buy electricity more often, in smaller increments, and are most likely to buy on payday. These patterns suggest difficulties smoothing income, and reveal a preference for small, frequent purchases that is incompatible with a standard monthly electricity billing cycle.
Demand Side Secular Stagnation
Authors: Summers Lawrence H.
Published: May 2015

The experience of first Japan and now Europe and the USA suggests that Hansen's concept of secular stagnation is highly relevant. Recovery has been anemic and follows a generation of financially unsustainable and often lackluster growth. Investment demand has declined while the supply of saving has increased, leaving the economy vulnerable to liquidity traps. Although some US indicators have improved, forward real rates have declined sharply, European prospects remain muddled, and the zero-bound will likely constrain again during the next recession. Infrastructure and private investment are the best ways to both minimize the risk of secular stagnation and raise demand.
Secular Stagnation: The Long View
Authors: Eichengreen Barry
Published: May 2015

Four explanations for secular stagnation are distinguished: a rise in global saving, slow population growth that makes investment less attractive, adverse trends in technology and productivity growth, and a decline in the relative price of investment goods. A long view from economic history is most supportive of the last of these four views.
Gary Becker as Teacher
Authors: Murphy Kevin M.
Published: May 2015

This paper looks at the work of Gary S. Becker, American economist, professor of sociology, friend, and colleague of Kevin M. Murphy. Murphy discusses the traditional approach of Becker's teaching and ideas as they were expressed through his wealth of content and style in course design; his discussions on the role of preferences, technology, and constraints as they influence household production; and his emphasis on the importance of markets and desire for more. Murphy recognizes Becker's teaching style as groundbreaking, unapologetic, and pure economics.
Gary Becker: Model Economic Scientist
Authors: Heckman James J.
Published: May 2015

This paper presents Gary Becker's approach to conducting creative, empirically fruitful economic research. It describes the traits and methodology that made him such a productive and influential scholar.
Gary Becker's Impact on Economics and Policy
Authors: Lazear Edward P.
Published: May 2015

Gary Becker was one of the greatest thinkers of the 20th century. He advanced social science by introducing economic thinking into areas that were thought to be off limits. Because his theory was motivated by his desire to explain the world, his analyses were highly policy relevant. His work on discrimination, deterrence of crime, fertility, human capital, and the family all produced implications that were testable and verified by his and others' empirical research. Equally important, each research area provided policy guidance and many of his ideas have been implemented by government and non-government organizations.
Behavioral Economics and Public Policy: A Pragmatic Perspective
Authors: Chetty Raj
Published: May 2015

The debate about behavioral economics–the incorporation of insights from psychology into economics–is often framed as a question about the foundational assumptions of economic models. This paper presents a more pragmatic perspective on behavioral economics that focuses on its value for improving empirical predictions and policy decisions. I discuss three ways in which behavioral economics can contribute to public policy: by offering new policy tools, improving predictions about the effects of existing policies, and generating new welfare implications. I illustrate these contributions using applications to retirement savings, labor supply, and neighborhood choice. Behavioral models provide new tools to change behaviors such as savings rates and new counterfactuals to estimate the effects of policies such as income taxation. Behavioral models also provide new prescriptions for optimal policy that can be characterized in a non-paternalistic manner using methods analogous to those in neoclassical models. Model uncertainty does not justify using the neoclassical model; instead, it can provide a new rationale for using behavioral nudges. I conclude that incorporating behavioral features to the extent they help answer core economic questions may be more productive than viewing behavioral economics as a separate subfield that challenges the assumptions of neoclassical models.
The Impact of Temporary Protected Status on Immigrants' Labor Market Outcomes
Authors: Orrenius Pia M. , Zavodny Madeline
Published: May 2015

The United States currently provides Temporary Protected Status (TPS) to more than 300,000 immigrants. TPS is typically granted if dangerous conditions prevail in migrants' home countries. Individuals with TPS are allowed to stay and work in the United States temporarily. Little is known about how TPS affects beneficiaries, most of whom are unauthorized prior to receiving TPS. Our results suggest that TPS eligibility leads to higher employment rates among women and higher earnings among men. The results have implications for recent programs that allow millions of unauthorized immigrants to receive temporary permission to remain and work in the United States.
The Impact of Economic Freedom on the Black/White Income Gap
Authors: Hoover Gary A. , Compton Ryan A. , Giedeman Daniel C.
Published: May 2015

Using state-level data from 1980-2010 we examine whether economic freedom, as measured by the Economic Freedom of North America Index, has had any impact in increasing or decreasing the ratio of median income for black households to the median income of white households. To our knowledge, there has been no research on racial income disparities and the role that economic freedom might have in alleviating or exacerbating the problem. We find evidence that economic freedom is associated with an increase in the racial income gap.
Income Inequality, Capitalism, and Ethno-Linguistic Fractionalization
Authors: Sturm Jan-Egbert , De Haan Jakob
Published: May 2015

We examine the relationship between capitalism and income inequality for a large sample of countries using an adjusted economic freedom index as proxy for capitalism. Our results suggest that there is no robust relationship between economic freedom and Gini coefficients based on gross income. Subsequently, we analyze the relationship between income redistribution and ethno-linguistic fractionalization. We find that the impact of ethno-linguistic fractionalization on income redistribution is conditional on the level of economic freedom: countries that have a high degree of fractionalization redistribute income less, while capitalist countries that have a low degree of fractionalization redistribute income more.
Academic Undermatching of High-Achieving Minority Students: Evidence from Race-Neutral and Holistic Admissions Policies
Authors: Black Sandra E. , Cortes Kalena E. , Lincove Jane Arnold
Published: May 2015

College is a pathway to social mobility in the United States. Yet too often high-achieving students from low-income and minorities families fail to apply to selective postsecondary institutions. Our study examines the extent to which academic undermatching occurs among high-achieving minority students by analyzing the application choices of students who undergo two distinct admissions policies. We find that minority students eligible for automatic admissions and those who undergo holistic admissions are both less likely to apply to elite flagship universities than white students, despite being equally qualified based on high school performance. Instead, minorities often opt for lower tier universities.
Household Asset Allocation, Offspring Education, and the Sandwich Generation
Authors: Bogan Vicki L.
Published: May 2015

This paper finds households with children and elderly dependents, the “Sandwich Generation,” significantly reduce both college savings and stockholding. Having any elderly dependents decreases the probability of both stockholding and college savings by twice as much as poor personal health. Hence, these results have critical implications as they demonstrate the importance and magnitude of links between the pension system, college financial aid, and wealth accumulation. Elderly dependents limiting parental funds for offspring education can decrease offspring long-term earnings potential via decreased human capital accumulation. Furthermore, decreased stock holdings can decrease long-term wealth accumulation and thus intergenerational wealth transfers.
An A for Effort
Authors: Swinton Omari H.
Published: May 2015

This paper uses a unique and rich administrative data set to analyze the impact of the introduction of a new grading policy on graduations rates at Benedict College, a Historically Black College in Columbia, South Carolina. According to the new grading policy, grades for underclassmen are determined in part by performance on tests and in part by measures of “effort” such as attendance and class participation. This paper finds that while graduates graduate at a faster rate under the policy, there is no significant difference between graduation rates before and after the policy was implemented.
Trust and Reciprocity between Spouses in India
Authors: Castilla Carolina
Published: May 2015

I present results from the first trust game conducted among married couples. The experiment consisted of a one-shot trust game where spouses were taken into separate rooms, not allowed to communicate, given a significant endowment, and both strategies and payoffs were common knowledge. Results indicate that only 3 percent of spouses in the sender role transfer the entire amount; the average proportion sent is 57 percent of the endowment. The limited sending is costly because the household on average is walking away with half of the potential earnings. The results provide further evidence of the lack of Pareto Efficiency within the household.
Child Gender and Parental Inputs: No More Son Preference in Korea?
Authors: Choi Eleanor Jawon , Hwang Jisoo
Published: May 2015

Sex ratio at birth remains highly skewed in Asian countries due to son preference. In South Korea, however, it has declined to the natural ratio. In this paper, we investigate whether son preference has disappeared in Korea by analyzing parents' time and monetary inputs by the sex of their child. We exploit randomness of the first child's sex to overcome potential bias from endogenous fertility decisions. Our findings show that mothers are more likely to work after having a girl, girls spend twice as much time as boys in housework activities, and parents spend more on private education for boys.
The Labor Supply Effects of Delayed First Birth
Authors: Herr Jane Leber
Published: May 2015

In this paper I compare the relationship between first-birth timing and post-birth labor supply for high school and college graduate mothers. Given that pre-birth wages are increasing in fertility delay, the rising opportunity cost of time would suggest that among both groups, later mothers work more. Yet I only find this pattern for high school graduates. For college graduates, I instead find that there is a strong U-shaped pattern between hours worked within motherhood, and the career timing of first birth.
Can Alcohol Prohibition Reduce Violence Against Women?
Authors: Luca Dara Lee , Owens Emily , Sharma Gunjan
Published: May 2015

Violence against women is a critical problem across the world. In this paper, we exploit state and temporal variation in alcohol control in India to examine the impact of prohibition on alcohol consumption and violent crimes against women. We first use detailed household survey data to show that prohibition policies are associated with substantially lower rates of drinking among men and domestic violence. Next, we provide evidence that alcohol prohibition reduces aggregate violence against women in officially reported crime data. The results suggest that policies that restrict access to alcohol may help reduce gender violence.
Demand Shocks and Open Economy Puzzles
Authors: Bai Yan , RÍos-Rull José-VÍctor
Published: May 2015

We pose good markets frictions on top of an otherwise standard two-country international real business cycle (IRBC) model. Shopping for goods takes effort, which prevents perfect matching between customers and producers. An increase in search effort implies increased measured productivity. Demand shocks increase expenditures and search effort simultaneously increasing output, consumption, productivity, and the trade deficit and appreciating the real exchange rate. Thus we solve the Backus-Smith puzzle and we show that the cross country correlation of consumption is higher than that of output. Standard IRBC models cannot account for these puzzles along with movements in TFP.
FOMC Forward Guidance and Investor Beliefs
Authors: Sinha Arunima
Published: May 2015

This paper considers the effect of different dimensions of the FOMC's forward guidance on ex ante investor expectations about future changes in US Treasury yields. Options and Futures data for 2- and 10-year Treasuries is used to extract State-Price Densities of investor beliefs, and the corresponding standard deviation, skewness, and excess kurtosis of these densities are computed. Announcements about extension of the zero-lower bound in 2012-13 are found to reduce the expectations about crash risk, but increase the uncertainty about future yields for the 10-year. Policies about long-security purchases lead investors to place greater weight on no change in future yields.
Macroeconomic Uncertainty Indices Based on Nowcast and Forecast Error Distributions
Authors: Rossi Barbara , Sekhposyan Tatevik
Published: May 2015

We propose new indices to measure macroeconomic uncertainty. The indices measure how unexpected a realization of a representative macroeconomic variable is relative to the unconditional forecast error distribution. We use forecast error distributions based on the nowcasts and forecasts of the Survey of Professional Forecasters. We further compare the new indices with those proposed in the literature and assess their macroeconomic impact.
Precise and feasible measurements of lateral calcaneal lengthening osteotomies by radiostereometric analysis in cadaver feet
Authors: Martinkevich P. , Rahbek O. , Møller-Madsen B. , Søballe K. , Stilling M.
Published: May 2015

Objectives

Lengthening osteotomies of the calcaneus in children are in general grafted with bone from the iliac crest. Artificial bone grafts have been introduced, however, their structural and clinical durability has not been documented. Radiostereometric analysis (RSA) is a very accurate and precise method for measurements of rigid body movements including the evaluation of joint implant and fracture stability, however, RSA has not previously been used in clinical studies of calcaneal osteotomies. We assessed the precision of RSA as a measurement tool in a lateral calcaneal lengthening osteotomy (LCLO).

Methods

LCLO was performed in six fixed adult cadaver feet. Tantalum markers were inserted on each side of the osteotomy and in the cuboideum. Lengthening was done with a plexiglas wedge. A total of 24 radiological double examinations were obtained. Two feet were excluded due to loose and poorly dispersed markers. Precision was assessed as systematic bias and 95% repeatability limits.

Results

Systematic bias was generally below 0.10 mm for translations. Precision of migration measurements was below 0.2 mm for translations in the osteotomy.

Conclusion

RSA is a precise tool for the evaluation of stability in LCLO. Cite this article: Bone Joint Res 2015;4:78–83.
Optimization of CLARITY for Clearing Whole-Brain and Other Intact Organs
Authors: Epp Jonathan R. , Niibori Yosuke , (Liz) Hsiang Hwa-Lin , Mercaldo Valentina , Deisseroth Karl , Josselyn Sheena A. , Frankland Paul W.
Published: May 2015

The development, refinement, and use of techniques that allow high-throughput imaging of whole brains with cellular resolution will help us understand the complex functions of the brain. Such techniques are crucial for the analysis of complete neuronal morphology—anatomical and functional—connectivity, and repeated molecular phenotyping. CLARITY is a recently introduced technique that produces structurally intact, yet optically transparent tissue, which may be labeled and imaged without sectioning. However, the utility of this technique depends on several procedural variables during the process in which the light-scattering lipids in a tissue are replaced by a transparent hydrogel matrix. Here, we systematically varied a number of factors (including temperature, hydrogel composition, and polymerization conditions) to provide an optimized, highly replicable CLARITY procedure for clearing mouse brains. We found that for these preparations optimal tissue clearing requires electrophoresis (and cannot be achieved with passive clearing alone) for 5 d with a combination of 37 and 55°C temperature. Although this protocol is optimized for brains, we also show that it can be used to clear and analyze a variety of organs. Brain or other tissue prepared using this protocol is suitable for high-throughput imaging with confocal or single-plane illumination microscopy.
Real-Time Evolution of a Subtelomeric Gene Family in Candida albicans
Authors: Anderson Matthew Z , Wigen Lauren J , Burrack Laura S , Berman Judith
Published: May 2015

Subtelomeric regions of the genome are notable for high rates of sequence evolution and rapid gene turnover. Evidence of subtelomeric evolution has relied heavily on comparisons of historical evolutionary patterns to infer trends and frequencies of these events. Here, we describe evolution of the subtelomeric TLO gene family in Candida albicans during laboratory passaging for over 4000 generations. C. albicans is a commensal and opportunistic pathogen of humans and the TLO gene family encodes a subunit of the Mediator complex that regulates transcription and affects a range of virulence factors. We identified 16 distinct subtelomeric recombination events that altered the TLO repertoire. Ectopic recombination between subtelomeres on different chromosome ends occurred approximately once per 5000 generations and was often followed by loss of heterozygosity, resulting in the complete loss of one TLO gene sequence with expansion of another. In one case, recombination within TLO genes produced a novel TLO gene sequence. TLO copy number changes were biased, with some TLOs preferentially being copied to novel chromosome arms and other TLO genes being frequently lost. The majority of these nonreciprocal recombination events occurred either within the 3′ end of the TLO coding sequence or within a conserved 50-bp sequence element centromere-proximal to TLO coding sequence. Thus, subtelomeric recombination is a rapid mechanism of generating genotypic diversity through alterations in the number and sequence of related gene family members.
Rhinella mirandaribeiroi (Gallardo, 1965) (Amphibia: Anura: Bufonidae): distribution extension and new state record
Authors: De Pina Ligia Ferracine , Morais Alessandro R. , Prado Cynthia P. A.
Published: May 2015

Rhinella mirandaribeiroi is widely distributed in the Cerrado domain and Cerrado enclaves in the Amazon forest, occurring also at the ecotone between this domain and surrounding formations. Here, we provide the first species record for the state of São Paulo, municipality of São Joaquim da Barra, northeast of the state. Additionally, we also provide a distribution map. This new record fills a gap in the species´ distribution in southeastern Brazil.
Reptiles of the Complexo Energético Fundão-Santa Clara, central-south region of Paraná state, southern Brazil
Authors: Alves de Souza Filho Gilberto , Plombon Luciano Leandro , Vieira Capela Danilo José
Published: May 2015

Lists of reptiles of localities in Paraná are still scarce and restricted to three works, developed in the central-north and eastern regions of the state. Herein we present a list of reptiles of the Complexo Energético Fundão-Santa Clara, located in the central-south region of Paraná. The study was carried out from May 2010 to March 2012. We recorded 31 species: 20 snakes, seven lizards, two amphisbaenians and two testudines. We hope through this work contribute to a greater knowledge of the reptilian fauna of the central-south region of Paraná.