bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The Political Ecology of the Cryosphere: Theory and Praxis
Authors: Lovecraft Amy Lauren , Parlato Nicholas
Published: March 2024

Globalization is not just a process of technological and economic interconnection but of the symbolic transformation of the geophysical world into social objects. As the planet warms, it has become a thinly-veiled doctrine among the world’s nations and industries that state and market control over and access to the polar regions, and their high mountain counterparts, is a geopolitical and economic imperative. Whether in the Arctic, Antarctic, or the “Third Pole”, human conceptions of the cold are understood as increasingly driven by anthropogenic state changes in the cryosphere itself and by contradictions of the market economy. An approach to accurately grasp the breadth and diversity of human perspectives, uses, and valuations of the cold thus requires deep contextualization and a theoretical approach. In this paper, we propose to synthesize core social findings about the nature of the cryosphere and its changes, centering the knowledge of Indigenous residents, and working outward through other layers of stakeholder groupings and positions.  Broadly, we identify sites of conflict and alignment among stakeholder positions related to permafrost, sea ice, snow, and land ice (e.g. direct users, “downstream” users, state administrators, corporate interests, scientists) to create a comprehensive framework of current services and hazards with flexibility for ongoing changes. We build on the development of the IPBES framework initiative (Diaz et al., 2015), it’s recent future-oriented adaptation (Pereira et al., 2020), and contributions by diverse scholars focused on cryosphere functions and services (Wang et al., 2019). Our effort is conducted to produce a formal space for discussion of the political ecology of coldness and “storying multipolar climes” (Yü and Wouters 2023) with the objective of matching the pace of social environmental change through the development of a multi-epistemic dialectical method of cryosphere inquiry that can inform multiple stakeholders.
Energy transfer in the Solar Wind: The interplay between turbulence and kinetic instabilities.
Authors: Opie Simon , Verscharen Daniel , Chen Christopher , Owen Christopher , Isenberg Philip , Sorriso-Valvo Luca , Franci Luca , Matteini Lorenzo
Published: March 2024

Precisely how and where energy transfer between scales in the Solar Wind takes place remains an open question. We use the occurrence of conditions predicted by linear theory to promote the growth of kinetic instabilities, to infer how turbulence drives temperature anisotropies. We analyse Solar Orbiter data by applying the measure of local energy transfer (LET) derived from the Politano and Pouquet exact law to identify the relative distributions of energy transfer processes in the solar wind. We quantify these processes with the application of a radial rate of strain computed from single spacecraft data, a measure that we define as an approximation of the strain rate in fully three-dimensional turbulence. We find good agreement with the theoretical prediction that velocity shear is responsible for driving temperature anisotropies. We conclude that the turbulent velocity field plays a key role in the creation of unstable conditions in the Solar Wind.
Pseudo-prospective earthquakes forecasting experiment in Italy based on temporal variation of the b-value of the Gutenberg-Richter law.
Authors: Biondini Emanuele , D'Orazio Flavia , Lolli Barbara , Gasperini Paolo
Published: March 2024

The analysis of space-time variations of the b-value of the frequency-magnitude distribution of earthquakes can be considered an important indicator in understanding the processes that precede strong earthquake events. Variations in b-value can provide valuable information on the stress state and probability of earthquake occurrence in a specific geographical region. By analyzing spatial variations in b-value, changes in local tectonic conditions can be identified, highlighting areas where seismic risk may increase. Similarly, the analysis of temporal variations in b-value can reveal patterns preceding seismic events, providing a possible precursor signal. Such variations could be the result of complex geological processes, such as the progressive accumulation of stress along active faults or the presence of underground fluids that influence fault dynamics. In fact, as it has been observed in many cases, the b-value tends to descend in the preparatory phases of a strong earthquake, and it increases suddenly after the mainshock occurrence.To evaluate such a hypothesis, in this work, an alarm-based forecasting method that uses b-value space-time variations as a precursor signal is implemented. The forecasting method has been retrospectively calibrated and optimized for the period 1990-2011 to forecast Italian shallow earthquake (Z
Two decades of fire-induced albedo change and associated radiative effect over sub-Saharan Africa
Authors: Flegrova Michaela , Brindley Helen
Published: March 2024

Fire is an important, widespread Earth-system process, influencing local ecosystems and climate around the globe. Over half of global burned area occurs in Africa, with over 10% of the continent affected by fire every year. Fire temporarily alters the surface properties, including surface albedo, causing long-lasting changes to the surface radiation budget.We present the analysis of 20 years of fire and albedo data in Africa, using the MODIS product suite. We show that fire causes an average immediate albedo decrease, recovering exponentially with a time constant of several weeks. While the magnitude of albedo changes shows large spatial and temporal variations and a strong land cover type (LCT) dependency, exponential recovery is observed in the majority of LCTs. We show that fires cause long-term brightening, observing on average a small positive albedo change 10 months after a fire, but we find this is driven almost exclusively by slow vegetation recovery in the Kalahari region.Using downward surface shortwave flux estimates we calculate the fire-induced surface radiative forcing (RF), peaking at 5±2 Wm−2 in the burn areas, albeit with a significantly smaller effect when averaged temporally and spatially. We find that the average long-term RF is negative because of the brightening observed.Our temporal analysis does not indicate a decrease in overall fire-induced RF, despite a well-documented reduction in burning in Africa in the recent decades, suggesting that the RF of individual fires is increasing because of higher levels of downward surface shortwave flux. We hypothesise this may be due to lower levels of smoke aerosols in the atmosphere.
Irrigation impact on thermodynamics in weather forecast modelling
Authors: Weber Kirsten Maria FLORENTINE , Magnusson Linus , Balsamo Gianpaolo , Choulga Margarita , Boussetta Souhail , Pedruzo Bagazgoitia Xabier , Arduini Gabriele
Published: March 2024

By 2030, over 300 million hectares worldwide will be irrigated, constituting the second most significant anthropogenic influence on land use following urbanisation. Our study focuses on an irrigated Terrestrial Environmental Observatories (TERENO)/Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) site in Germany, unveiling irrigation's immediate effects on soil moisture, latent heat flux, skin and soil temperature. As we strive to seamlessly integrate irrigation processes into the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), our investigation extends to an offline model, ECLand, including dynamical vegetation. Introducing a perturbed precipitation field offers a refined perspective of mimicking irrigation. The feedback provides us with insights into the coupling of simple irrigation representation on thermodynamic variables, ensuring optimal benefits for the IFS. After verification with remote sensing data, the next step involves coupling water fluxes to stomatal conductance via photosynthesis, shedding light on the preliminary influence of irrigation on enhanced vegetation growth. This aims to untangle irrigation effects of increased soil moisture and greening. 
Marine heatwaves in the Red Sea: a study of their spatial characteristics, trends and relationships to climate modes
Authors: Hamdeno Manal , Alvera-Azcárate Aida , Krokos George , Hoteit Ibrahim
Published: March 2024

Episodes of very warm sea surface temperatures (SST), known as marine heatwaves (MHWs), can potentially alter ocean ecosystems with far-reaching ecological and socio-economic consequences. In this work, we focused on the Red Sea (RS), a region of outstanding socio-economic importance, and investigated its spatio-temporal MHW variability between 1982 and 2021. In addition, the relationship between MHWs and different climate teleconnection patterns was investigated. Our results show that during the study period (1982-2021), the highest frequencies of MHWs were in the southern Red Sea (SRS), while the prolonged and more intense ones were in the northern Red Sea (NRS). By analyzing satellite-derived sea surface temperatures (SST), we identified a warming trend in the RS that began from the mid-1990s, and has intensified since 2016. This temperature increase was accompanied by an increase in the MHW frequency and total days. 78 MHW events with a total of 1016 heat days occurred in the RS between 1982 and 2021, of which 36 events (46%) and 590 days (58%) were recorded in the last decade. In the NRS, the annual MHW frequency was highest in 2010, 2018, 2019 and 2021, while in the SRS it was highest in 1998 and from 2017 to 2021. In cold years, characterized by a negative average SST anomaly, MHWs were mainly found in the NRS. In contrast, in warm years characterized by a positive average SST anomaly, MHWs mainly affected the SRS. However, an exception was observed in 2010, which is considered one of the warmest years in the last four decades. In this year, MHWs were predominantly localized in the NRS, deviating from the typical pattern observed in warm years. The MHW frequency showed a strong positive correlation (> 0.7) with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) over the entire RS and a positive correlation (> 0.4) with the Indian Ocean Dipole Index (IOD), which was more pronounced in the SRS, whereas it had a negative correlation (< -0.5) with the East Atlantic/Western Russia (EATL/WRUS) pattern, particularly in the NRS. It was noted that 2010 was also an exceptional year for the climate modes as the AMO and IOD were in strong positive phases, and  the EATL/WRUS was in its highest negative phase, both of which may have contributed to the increased MHWs in that year. This study highlights the link between climate patterns and the occurrence of marine heatwaves in the Red Sea and provides valuable insights into this important aspect of climate change.
Fire rate-of-spread model inversion: what can be inferred from remote sensing observations of fire behaviour?
Authors: Sandoval David , Ningthoujam Ramesh , Prentice Iain Colin
Published: March 2024

Understanding the drivers of wildfires is crucial to evaluating fire's impact on natural processes and their feedback on the environment and society. Due to the difficulty of directly observing fires in the wild, our current knowledge of wildfire behaviour heavily relies on lab experiments and open-controlled fires, which are the main source for our models and assumptions. Thus, there are still several gaps on how spot samples upscale to ecosystems, how different fuel types with varying moisture contents should be represented in the models, or how fire responds to the intrinsic structural complexity of ecosystems. Some of this information is currently encoded in fuel models, which are primarily based on vegetation types and used as prescribed inputs in our models. However, they are a documented source of uncertainties and inaccuracies when applied beyond the spatial domain from which they were originally formulated. Global fire behaviour observed through remote sensing could provide more general insights on the emergent response of fire to this complexity.
In this work, by inverting Rothermel’s model for fire rate of spread (ROS), we show how field observations of fuel load, fuel moisture and environmental variables (temperature, wind speed) relate to the remotely sensed ROS and fire radiative power (FRP). We used fuel load measurements provided by the Public LANDFIRE Reference Database, fuel moisture data provided by the National Fuel Moisture Database, fire ROS from the Fire Atlas, FRP from the MCD14ML product, and vegetation backscattering signal from Sentinel -1 mission over the conterminous United States. Preliminary results show only partial agreement between the components of the ROS equations calculated from observations and estimated by model inversion. However, these findings suggest the possibility of bypassing the empirical estimations of fuel load and fuel moisture content, which use remote sensing, and directly use these signals to calculate a potential ROS as a fraction of wind speed.
Striving for the aspiring UNESCO Global Geopark Algarvensis: Connecting Climate Change Threats with Cultural and Natural Heritage
Authors: Veiga-Pires Cristina , Oliveira Sónia , Terra Lídia , Paulo Dália , Carroço Telma , Pereira Luís
Published: March 2024

Since 2019, a team of scientists, technicians, and politicians from Southern Portugal has been planning and implementing a new project aimed at involving the local population in fostering sustainable development alongside the preservation and conservation of natural and cultural assets. This initiative has evolved into the aspiring UNESCO Global Geopark (aUGGp) Algarvensis, reaching maturity earlier this year when its southern territorial boundary was established at sea, aligning with a bathymetric depth of 130 meters, representing the coastline of 20,000 years ago.Situated in the Algarve region, this territory is facing several threats associated to climate change, the most significant ones being the sea level rise, reduced rainfall and freshwater availability, and the impact of the extreme events.The natural and cultural heritage assets are abundant, both on land, along the coast, and underwater. Given the diverse stakeholders responsible for their management based on their type, characteristics, size, and location, there has been no global and integrated approach to assessing their vulnerabilities, both specific and common. The aUGGp Algarvensis aims to rectify this by identifying, quantifying, and mitigating risks drived from natural, climatic, anthropogenic, and biological hazards across various types of heritage.Although relatively unknown, the continental territory of the aUGGp Algarvensis boasts a rich and diverse cultural heritage, featuring over 228 listed and referenced sites encompassing various types of heritage. Over the last decades, several coastal heritage sites have vanished into the sea due to intense coastal erosion, with underwater heritage primarily appreciated by divers..This study explores how climate change poses risks to the region's geological, cultural, and ecological features. It emphasizes the intricate relationship between environmental changes and heritage preservation within the context of the UNESCO Global Geopark Algarvensis initiative. Our goal is to not only present the survey and compilation data gathered so far under the aUGGp Algarvensis coordination but also to underscore the importance and impact that such a local/regional non-governmental structure can bring to implement an efficient and proactive management strategy in the face of evolving risks to heritage. Acknowledgement:  This study had the support of national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), under the project LA/P/0069/2020 granted to the Associate Laboratory ARNET and UID/00350/2020 CIMA, as well as from the Municipalities of Loulé, Silves and Albufeira.
The effect of pressure drop and fluid expansion during rock fracturing by dynamic unloading
Authors: Fondriest Michele , Arzilli Fabio , Cordonnier Benoit , Carroll Michael , Doan Mai-Linh
Published: March 2024

The propagation of earthquake fault ruptures in the crust involve the generation of unloading stress pulses sufficiently large to induce dynamic failure of water-saturated rocks under tensional stresses and hydrofracturing. Similar processes are also activated during underground rock mass excavation activities in mines and tunnels. The current knowledge about rock fracturing via dynamic unloading is mainly limited to empirical records and numerical simulations, while there is a general paucity of experimental studies, due to difficulties in reproducing large instantaneous decompressions on rock samples using standard triaxial rigs. Until now rapid decompression and fracturing of large rock samples in dry conditions was reported only by using an unconventional gas-confined vessel.Here, we report rock-fracture results for newly conceived rock decompression experiments, completed through the innovative use of a “cold-seal pressure vessel” (CSPV) apparatus which is routinely employed in experimental petrology. We applied instantaneous large decompressions on water-saturated rock samples equilibrated at high confinement (up to 200 MPa) and temperatures (up to 540°C). The tested rock samples were fine-grained Westerly granite, coarse-grained tonalite and micritic limestone. During the decompressions the rock samples hydrofractured due to the confinement dropping faster than the pore pressure within the rock. Porosity measurements, SEM imaging and X-ray µCT acquired before and after the tests suggest that the magnitude of dynamic fracturing not only positively correlates with the pressure drops but it mostly increases when the decompression is associated to a phase change of the pore water (e.g. supercritical fluid to subcritical gas) . Water vaporization or degassing imply an instantaneous volume expansion (up to 70 times) which critically enhances dynamic fracture propagation along rock grain boundaries. The induced fractures span from mm-long transgranular cracks to microcracks with submicrometric aperture. Therefore, synchrotron light high-resolution microtomography (final pixel resolution of 0.3 µm) was employed to fully resolve and quantify the 3D fracture networks of these deformed rock samples. Such unique dataset allowed us to determine at different scales the fracture intensity, aperture and connectivity of the dynamically induced fracture networks and to assess the key contribution of pore-water physical state changes on the initial stages of dynamic fracturing in rocks at crustal conditions. Such results will contribute to close a current knowledge gap in rock mechanics.
Techno-economic assessment of high-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage system, insights from a study case in Burgwedel, Germany
Authors: Zhou Dejian , Li Ke , Gao Huhao , Tatomir Alexandru , Sauter Martin
Published: March 2024

To mitigate the increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the technology of high-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage system (HT-ATES) is attracting the public’s attention as an alternative to traditional fossil fuels for domestic heating and cooling. Based on a wellbore model and a reservoir model, we did a comprehensive economic assessment of the target HT-ATES planning in Burgwedel near Hannover, Germany. The levelized cost of heat (LCOH), payback time, and CO2 emission reduction are selected to assess the HT-ATES performance. Results show that the total energy loss during the stages of injection, production and reservoir storage is ca. 9%, of which ca. 2.7% during injection, ca. 2.2% during production, and ca. 4% within the reservoir. Provided that the heat exchange efficiency between the subsurface part and end-use system is 70%, the HT-ATES starts to profit from the 3rd operation year with 30-year LCOH of nearly 2.3 cent per kWh, similar to the currently running ATESs. The 30-year net CO2 emission reduction is ca. 58.1 kt with an average of ca. 1937 t/year, which is more considerable than the low-temperature ATES, i.e., ranging from 150 and 1500 t/year. The economic assessment of the HT-ATES indicates that the planning project can provide heating and cooling services for the district of Burgwedel with lower price and CO2 emission.
Towards establish a continental Early Warning System for flood Preparedness: A study case of South America's data-scarce countries
Authors: Castillo Rápalo Luis Miguel , Mendiondo Eduardo Mario
Published: March 2024

Across Latin America, floods are one of the major hazards, and their impacts are exacerbated by climate change and poor societal preparedness. The latter is mainly due to the lack of methods that could provide insights about where and when extreme events could happen and what their hydraulic response might be. The data-scarcity and lack of open-source tools are one of the main barriers to improving resilience in the context of flooding. Nonstructural measures such as early warning systems are typically based on empirical approaches relating rainfall thresholds in order to inform about potential floods at country or continental scales. Nevertheless, this ignores the hydraulic behavior and rainfall-runoff mechanics. This research presents the first steps to establish an open-source Early Warning System (EWS) by employing a hydrodynamic model (Hydropol2D) integrated with quasi-global rainfall estimations from PERSIANN PDIR-Now and numerical weather predictions from the Global Forecast System (GFS). The model is capable of running at multiple spatial scales, combining near real-time flood modeling (as a Digital Twin) which shares the current system states as a base scenario for the forecasting system (as an EWS). Additionally, the model features a graphical interface for monitoring current hydraulic conditions and predicting future flooding based on rainfall forecasts. From one year of initial modeling results as a system warm-up, we observed the model's speed viability due to its parallel computing capability. The integration of freely available rainfall data and real-time gauge stations of flow stages and discharge shows the potential of the model as a Digital Twin at a continental scale. However, the model still lacks a recursively parameters updating routine to improve output accuracy, and regular calibration and validation procedures are necessary for each point of interest. Furthermore, the inclusion of evapotranspiration and soil moisture remote sensing data needs to be considered due to their impact on long-term hydrological modeling. These initial steps to combine a Digital Twin and an EWS could strengthen resilience where data is limited, empowering vulnerable communities through participatory adaptation and enhanced capacity. The open-source, customizable platform is accessible for organizations to implement early warning systems within areas with growing risks.
Geometric analysis of decameter scale fractures in the Peace Vallis fan lower Unit and Mt. Sharp Boxworks, Gale Crater Mars
Authors: Scuderi Louis , Buie Aidan
Published: March 2024

The boxwork unit on Mount Sharp presents an interesting erosional geomorphic feature that will shortly be investigated by the Curiosity Rover. The boxworks have been interpreted as a decameter-scale rectilinear fracture pattern infiltrated by ground water subsequent to its formation [1]. It is hypothesized that a fluid-based fill cemented the area around the fractures leaving ridges of erosion-resistant material. Here we investigate the similarities between the Mt. Sharp boxwork unit, fracture patterns adjacent to the boxworks that do not exhibit a significant vertical expression, and a similar appearing decameter-scale fracture pattern on the lower unit of the Peace Vallis (PV) fan [2].Unlike the raised topography of the Mt. Sharp boxworks, vertical expression along fractures in the PV lower fan unit is poorly developed and is only found in a few isolated locations. However, analysis of fracture patterns using the Symbolic Plane approach of Domokos et al. [3] shows that both areas have a similar underlying polygonal fracture pattern with resultant rectilinear forms. These forms average three junction angles at vertices and normally produce four sided blocks. This is similar to fracture patterns associated with Platonic attractors on both Earth and Mars [3]. In both areas, cells of a regular primary mosaic X-type nodes are sequentially bisected locally creating irregular T-type nodes in response to secondary fracturing. Both areas exhibit similar regularity measures (#T nodes/total # of X and Y nodes) that range from ~0.82 to 0.86.  The unit adjacent to the Mount Sharp boxworks that does not display raised ridges has a similar fracture pattern and regularity. The geometric similarity of all three areas suggests that they are likely to have formed from processes that produced similar stress fields.We hypothesize for all three areas that aeolian erosion subsequent to fracture formation has removed some portion of the surface. However, in the case of boxworks, the contrast between the cemented and less resistant non-cemented material leads initially to the production of proto-boxwork rounded hollows. These hollows expand and eventually reach the more resistant rock of the infiltrated fractures resulting in high standing remnant ridges ~ 1-meter or less in height. If the boxwork groundwater hypothesis is correct, this suggests that limited groundwater may have been available on the Peace Vallis fan subsequent to its deposition sometime after ~3Ga [4]. The quantity of groundwater was insufficient to allow mineralization in all but a few isolated locations on the fan as well as in the non-boxworks fractured area adjacent to the boxworks unit. [1] Siebach and Grotzinger, JGR, 2014. [2] Oehler et al. Icarus, 2016. [3] Domokos et al., PNAS, 2020. [4] Scuderi et al., 2018 LPSC
Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5
Authors: King Andrew , Ziehn Tilo , Chamberlain Matthew , Borowiak Alexander , Brown Josephine , Cassidy Liam , Dittus Andrea , Grose Michael , Maher Nicola , Paik Seungmok , Perkins-Kirkpatrick Sarah , Sengupta Aditya
Published: March 2024

Under the Paris Agreement, signatory nations aim to keep global warming well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and preferably below 1.5°C. This implicitly requires achieving net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas emissions to ensure long-term global temperature stabilisation or reduction. Despite this requirement, there have been few analyses of stabilised climates and there is a lack of model experiments to address our need for understanding the implications of the Paris Agreement for the Earth system. Here, we describe a new set of experiments using the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator earth system model (ACCESS-ESM-1.5) that enables analysis of climate evolution under net-zero emissions, and we present initial results. Seven 1000-year long simulations were run with global temperatures stabilising at levels in line with the Paris Agreement and at a range of higher global warming levels. We provide a brief overview of the experimental design and show how these model simulations may be used to understand possible net-zero emissions climates. We find major consequences of delayed attainment of global net-zero carbon dioxide emissions for different aspects of the climate system. As the climate stabilises under net-zero emissions, we identify significant and robust changes in temperature and precipitation patterns including continued Southern Ocean warming and reversal of transient mid-latitude drying trends. Regional climate changes under net-zero emissions differ greatly including contrasting trajectories of sea ice extent between the Arctic and Antarctic. While Arctic sea ice extent is projected to stabilise under net-zero emissions, sustained Southern Ocean warming is associated with continued sea ice decline in the Antarctic. We also examine the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and find evidence of reduced amplitude and frequency of ENSO events under climate stabilisation relative to projections under transient warming. An analysis at specific global warming levels shows significant regional changes continue for centuries after emissions cessation. Our findings suggest substantial long-term climate changes are possible even under net-zero emissions pathways. We hope these simulations will be of use to the community and that they motivate further experiments and analyses based on other earth system models.
The tropospheric delay of the GPS signal and its correlation with the solar cycle
Authors: Tammaro Umberto , Carbone Vincenzo , Capparelli Vincenzo , Lepreti Fabio , Martino Claudio
Published: March 2024

The INGV operates a network of about 60 permanent GNSS stations to monitor the Neapolitan volcanic area (southern Italy), which includes three active volcanoes: Somma Vesuvio, Campi Flegrei and the island of Ischia. In this study we consider only the GPS constellation, whose signals are transmitted in the microwave band. Therefore, they suffer a delay while propagating in the troposphere. Bearing in mind that the refractive index in the atmosphere is a function of the water vapour content, pressure and temperature, tropospheric delay can be assimilated into short-term weather forecast models and used in long-term climate studies. We analyse a data set ranged about 14 years (2006-2019) of continuous GPS data, to evaluate the tropospheric delay to be used as a probe tool to quantify precipitable water and track its spatial-temporal evolution. We limit the analysis to the area of Somma Vesuvio, a strato-vulcano that covers an area of 165 km2 and is about 1200 meters high, to study also the effect of the steep topography on the spatial distribution of the precipitable water content. The data are analysed in terms of empirical functions (IMF), organised in ascending order with a parameter ranging from 0 to 15, plus the trend. The trend found is not a linear growth, but grows to a maximum that is in the middle of the time range of about 11 years and then decreases. It is very interesting that the correlation with the solar cycle is high. Therefore, the next developments will be to analyze other data sets to verify the generality of this result.
Solving the Travelling Salesman Problem for Efficient Route Planning through Swarm Intelligence-Based Optimization
Authors: Wong Kin To
Published: March 2024

With the rapid growth in global trade, the demand for efficient route planning and resource utilization in logistics and transportation mirrors the Travelling Salesman Problem (TSP). TSP refers to finding the shortest route possible of N destinations by visiting each destination once and returning to the starting point. Moreover, the computational complexity of TSP increases exponentially with the number of destinations, where finding an exact solution is not practical in larger instance. It has long been a challenging optimization problem, prompting the development of various methodologies to seek for more efficient solution, especially towards metaheuristics in recent research. Therefore, this research proposes an optimization algorithm with the implementation of the Swarm Intelligence-based method for solving TSP, providing an approximate solution. The proposed algorithm is evaluated by comparing its performance in terms of solution quality and computation time to well-known optimization methods, namely the Genetic Algorithm and the Ant Colony Optimization. 47 cities and 50 landmarks in the U.S. are selected as the destinations for two experimental datasets respectively with geospatial data retrieved from Google Maps Platform API. The experiment result suggests that the proposed algorithm has computed a near-optimal solution along with the shortest computation time among the three optimization methods. Solving the TSP efficiently contributes significantly to route planning for transportation and logistics. By shortening the travelling time, optimizing resource utilization, and minimizing fuel and energy consumption, this research further aligns with the global goal of carbon reduction for transportation and logistics systems.
Assessing high-resolution global climate models in simulating subtropical cyclones over the southeast coast of Brazil
Authors: Andrade Cardoso Andressa , Porfírio da Rocha Rosmeri
Published: March 2024

Subtropical cyclones when occurring close to the coast can be very dangerous for human activities bringing high amounts of precipitation, intense winds and gusts in the coastal cities. This can lead to natural hazards and risks, such as floods, inundations, and even deaths. Over the southeast coast of Brazil, seven subtropical cyclones occur on average each year, with higher frequency in austral summer and autumn.  However, there are still few studies focusing on its global models climatology and future projections. It is crucial to evaluate how accurate are the global climate models of the new HighResMIP-CMIP6 dataset, with fine horizontal high-resolution, in representing subtropical cyclones in the historical period. Thus, this study assesses the classification of the subtropical cyclones based on two reanalyses (ERA5 and ERA-Interim) to evaluate the fine-resolution HighResMIP-CMIP6 datasets.  First, we tracked all cyclones over the South Atlantic Ocean applying an automatic scheme using relative vorticity at 925 hPa. Then, the vertical structure of the cyclones are accessed by calculating three parameters (symmetry, thermal wind at low and upper levels) from the cyclone phase space approach. Finally, we classified subtropical features using an automatic scheme based on a pre-establish threshold. In general, the approach is able for classifying subtropical cyclones providing realistic climatology. Overall, for the total of cyclones, ERA5, ERAInterim and HighResMIP-CMIP6 reproduce similar areas of great cyclogenetic activity over the eastern coast of South America.  In terms of frequency, it is greater in ERA5 than ERAInterim, for both total and subtropical cyclones, while a similar behavior is noted in relation to the seasonal frequency. HighResMIP-CMIP6 tends to overestimate the total of cyclones in subtropical latitudes, impacting directly the frequency of the subtropical ones. 
Proposal of Hourly Rainfall Estimation Method by CNN Using Meteorological Satellite Himawari and Its Evaluation of Areal Rainfall in a Watershed Scale
Authors: Fujimoto Kansei , Tebakari Taichi
Published: March 2024

 Many regions, including developing countries, have limited meteorological observation networks and still lack quantitative rainfall data with basin-scale accuracy that can contribute to water-related disaster prediction. This study aims to develop satellite precipitation products with quantitative accuracy in basin-averaged precipitation for water-related disaster forecasting. In recent years, deep learning has been utilized in many fields as an experiential statistical model, and CNN is a useful model for estimating precipitation from meteorological satellites. The purpose of this study is developing a satellite precipitation estimation method that can be used for predicting water-related disasters by using CNN and the brightness temperature of clouds and water vapor from the Himawari meteorological satellite. The data used were precisely geometrically corrected data from the Himawari meteorological satellite and elevation data from MERIT DEM. The training period was four months during the summer of 2015 through 2021 (July through October), and the validation period was the summer of 2022. The training domain was the northeastern part of Japan, and the validation watersheds were the Arakawa River in the Kanto region (within the training domain) and the Chikugo River in the Kyushu region (outside the training domain). As a result, this study was able to reproduce the basin-averaged precipitation quantitatively with high accuracy within the training domain. Outside of the training domain, precipitation of rainfall events could be reproduced qualitatively and generally, and some rainfall cases were more accurate than GSMaP's accuracy, however there were cases where no rainfall events were misclassified as rainfall events, therefore we still have room of improvement.
Organic Vineyard Fertilization: Soil Carbon and Nitrogen in Southern Brazil
Authors: Tiecher Tadeu L. , Kokkonen Allan Augusto , Papalia Daniéle Gonçalves , Garlet Luana Paula , Ferraz Costa Vanessa , Bolívar de Mello Schemer Samuel , Gonçalves Gulartt Arthur , Clasen Barbara , Brunetto Gustavo
Published: March 2024

In recent years, vineyard areas in organic production system have been increasing significatively, in both develop and developing nations. This trend aligns with the growing concerns of people and governments. They are increasingly worried about health issues and the environmental impact of conventional agriculture and horticulture. In contrast, agroecology and organic fertilization have the potential to offer safe products and promote carbon (C) sequestration in the soil. The latter benefit is also a crucial strategy to mitigate the climate effects of greenhouse gas emissions. This aligns with the UN's guidelines for carbon-neutral production systems However, in vineyard agroecosystems, there is limited technical information about the impact of organic fertilizers and plant CO2 fixation on carbon levels. This is especially true in subtropical climates. Therefore, this research aimed to evaluate how different fertilization systems affect soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil organic nitrogen (SON). An experiment was set up in a commercial organic vineyard with two different cultivars: ‘Isabella’ (Vitis labrusca x V. vinifera) and ‘Chardonnay’ (V. vinifera), in Veranópolis (Cfa climate), in Southern Brazil. The soil in the experiment was classified as Cambisol (WRB). Since 2020, the following fertilization systems have been applied yearly: no fertilization (T), grape pomace vermicompost (GPV), grape pomace compost (GPC), GPV plus mineral fertilizers (GPV+MF), GPC plus mineral fertilizers (GPC+MF), and mineral fertilizers only (MF). The organic fertilizers were applied in the dose of 40 kg of N ha-1, on the surface beneath grapevine canopies. The mineral fertilizers consisted of natural phosphate and potassium sulphate, in the doses of 160 and 100 kg ha-1 of P2O5 and K2O, respectively. In 2023, soil samples were collected from 0 to 5, 5 to 10, 10 to 20 and 20 to 40 cm layers, at bud burst (August), and analyzed for SOC and SON, via combustion followed by gas chromatography. No fertilization system increased SOC or SON in layers up until 20 cm deep after three years of treatment. In 20 to 40 cm layer, there was variability among treatments; however, that is probably main to natural variation. Mean C:N ratio of soil organic matter was 12,0. In light of this, we suggest the evaluation of SOC and SON after a longer period of treatment application, since their low increase in humid subtropical regions, which presents hot and wet summers.
The Special Issue on Modeling and Data Analysis Methods for the SMILE mission
Authors: Sun Tianran , Connor Hyunju , Samsonov Andrey
Published: March 2024

The SMILE (Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer) mission (http://www.nssc.cas.cn/smile/) is a scientific space mission, jointly supported by the European Space Agency (ESA) and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). SMILE aims to study the solar wind-magnetosphere coupling in a novel approach: global imaging of the Earth’s magnetosheath and cusps in the soft X-ray band. At the same time, it also provides UV imaging of the northern auroral regions, completing the detection of solar wind–magnetosphere–ionosphere coupling in a global way. The time frame for launch is in 2025. This talk summarizes the recent progress of SMILE Modeling Working Group (MWG), specifically a special issue on Earth and Planetary Physics (EPP) with 23 articles to provide the international space science community with works regarding the modeling and data analysis methods developed during the pre-studies of the SMILE mission. We categorize the articles into the following topics and give some brief comments: (1) instrument descriptions of the Soft X-ray Imager (SXI), (2) modeling of the X-ray signals, (3) data processing of the images, (4) tracing the boundary locations from the simulated images, (5) physical phenomenon related to the scientific goals of SMILE-SXI, (6) modeling of the aurora, and (7) ground-based support for SMILE.
Assessing the Role of Turbulence-Driven Magnetic Reconnection in the Dissipation of Plasma Turbulence in Earth’s Magnetosheath
Authors: Stawarz Julia E. , Quijia Pilapaña Paulina , Pyakurel Prayash S. , Bessho Naoki , Gingell Imogen L. , Phan Tai , Shay Michael A. , Lewis Harry C. , Russell Christopher T. , Le Contel Olivier
Published: March 2024

Magnetic reconnection has long been thought to play an important role in turbulent plasmas – with the nonlinear dynamics of turbulent systems being well known to self-consistently generate intense current structures and associated magnetic shears that can be sites where so-called turbulence-driven magnetic reconnection can occur. However, complex three-dimensional magnetic topologies and the small-scale nature of these magnetic reconnection events have traditionally made it challenging to assess the role of magnetic reconnection in the turbulent dynamics from either a numerical or observational perspective. Recent high-resolution observations from NASA’s Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) mission have provided an unprecedented new opportunity to systematically examine turbulence-driven reconnection in the region of shock-driven turbulence within Earth’s magnetosheath. These observations have provided new insight into the nature of magnetic reconnection within turbulent plasmas, revealing that under the right conditions so-called electron-only magnetic reconnection, in which ion jets are not accelerated by the newly reconnected magnetic fields, can occur. In this talk, we explore how to observationally constrain the contribution turbulence-driven magnetic reconnection makes to the energy dissipation rate of the turbulence. We then directly compare estimates of the dissipation rate associated with reconnection events observed by MMS to estimates of the turbulent energy cascade rate for the specific intervals of magnetosheath turbulence that the reconnection events are observe within. The potential implications of traditional ion-coupled reconnection versus electron-only reconnection for the energy budget of turbulent dissipation and the magnetosheath overall are then discussed in detail.
SkyTruth’s Cerulean: Public Database of Near-Real-Time Oil Detections
Authors: Raphael Jonathan , Schatz Jason
Published: March 2024

We introduce Cerulean, a fully automated machine learning pipeline designed to detect anthropogenic oil pollution across the world’s oceans in near-real-time from Sentinel-1 data. Cerulean is anticipated to provide a vital resource to researchers, environmental organizations, governments, journalists, and other stakeholders, by providing a free and public global monitoring and reporting system for oil pollution.Cerulean was recently launched and is now accessible to the public via a state-of-the-art map-based interface (cerulean.skytruth.org) as well as an Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) compliant API (api.cerulean.skytruth.org). These two interfaces allow unfettered access to our continuously growing database of potential oil slicks, able to be filtered against many different criteria including event timestamp, geographic area of interest, and slick area. Additionally, we cross-correlate each high-confidence slick with our vessel-tracking AIS database and our oceanic stationary infrastructure database to highlight the top three probable sources of each potential slick.Cerulean’s code is open-source and has been published on GitHub to encourage public scrutiny for review and feedback. Though the model itself is continually being improved upon, and individual slicks should be subjected to expert review, we hope that this tool can immediately become a regular source of high-quality slick candidates for users seeking to test or corroborate their own models and systems, or to review their own sovereign waters. We are also looking for potential partners interested in collaboration to demonstrate novel value pipelines that leverage this new datasource.
Using flux networks to discover long term controls of ecosystem productivity
Authors: Moore David , Zhang Wen , Abarzua Angie , Devine Charles
Published: March 2024

Climate, potential biota, topography, geological parent material, and time. The state factor-interactive-controls hypothesis is a pervasive concept in ecosystem ecology that could explain long term controls of eddy covariance estimates of gross primary productivity. The hypothesis is adopted by ecologists whenever a gradient analysis is used (a chrono-sequence or a climate gradient). In this framework the state factors of climate, potential biota, topography, geological parent material, and time control ecosystem processes but are not themselves influenced by ecosystem processes at local scales. Interactive controls like realized plant functional types, soil resources, microclimate and disturbance frequency influence and are influenced by ecosystem processes. Flux networks represent whole ecosystem process measurements and while much has been learned from analyzing short term controls, longer term controls have been investigated less often. The last two decades have seen the growth of the Ameriflux network in North America; similar measurements of ecosystem carbon, water and energy exchange made across a wide range of ecosystem types. We tested whether gross primary productivity, estimated using the eddy covariance method across more than 40 ecosystems in North America conformed to the State-Factor-Interactive-Controls hypothesis. To estimate state factors we combined satellite observations, digital elevation models, geological and soil maps and climate re-analysis. By limiting our analysis to sites with more than 10 years of data we were able to remove the effect of short-term direct controls (light, temperature, moisture etc) on gross primary productivity. We found significant interactive effects of climate and geological substrate and a strong direct effect of climate on average gross primary productivity. We also found a strong effect of biota on the variation that was not explained by state factors. Comparing these patterns to predictions from an Earth System Model we found contrasting results. These findings provide support for the state factors-interactive-controls hypothesis and suggest new opportunities for ecological synthesis using networks of ecological data.
Real-time Ambient Seismic Noise Tomography of the Hillside IOCG Deposit
Authors: Jones Tim , Olivier Gerrit , Murphy Bronwyn , Gal Martin , Smith Nick , North Brooke , Burrows Darren , Cole Lachlan , Went Craig , Olsen Steven
Published: March 2024

We use ambient noise tomography (ANT) to image the Hillside Iron-Ore-Copper-Gold (IOCG) deposit at prospect-scale, leveraging Fleet's direct-to-satellite technology for real-time data analysis. Our results capture aspects of the deposit's known geology, including depth of cover, structures linked to mineralisation, and the mineralised host rock, and identifies several new features, including the behavior of key structures down to 1 km depth and lithological variation that underlies the Hillside deposit. Results are compared to existing magnetic, gravity, induced-polarization and drilling data. An analysis of model convergence rates with respect to environmental noise conditions (signal-to-noise ratio) shows that real-time analysis can reduce data collection at the site to within 50% of traditional deployment times. We conclude by commenting on the efficacy of ANT for IOCG exploration more broadly.