bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Statistical properties of water level extremes along the St. Lawrence fluvial estuary
Authors: Innocenti Silvia , Matte Pascal , Gosselin Remi , Doghri Mouna , Sevigny Caroline , Champoux Olivier , Morin Jean
Published: March 2024

The governmental Flood Hazard Identification and Mapping Program (FHIMP) seeks to update standards for flood mapping and risk area definition in Canada. Within this initiative, Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) has been mandated to provide 2D simulations of water levels in the St. Lawrence fluvial estuary to estimate return periods of extreme water levels under historical and future conditions. Long-term fine-scale hydrodynamic simulations are necessary to reproduce accurately the complex interplay of hydrological, meteorological and tidal processes responsible for extreme water levels in this system. However, the substantial computational resources and time needed to run the hydrodynamic numerical models constrain the feasibility of producing numerous long-term simulations with a wide range of potential flood-generating conditions. Consequently, this study considers a complementary statistical framework to assess the extreme characteristics and drivers from historical data to prepare input scenarios for climatic projections. Event-based analyses of water level records are conducted at 18 stations across the St. Lawrence system using univariate and multivariate techniques to characterize the observed extreme dynamics and flood events. Specifically, univariate frequency analysis is applied at each station to quantify local flood risk based on approximately 400 extreme events observed in the Estuary between 1972 and 2022. Multivariate investigations based on a non-stationary tidal harmonic regression tool (NS Tide) are then used to study the system dynamics involved in major observed events and reconstruct the extreme water level series using a set of hydrological, meteorological, and astronomical covariates. Finally, multivariate spatial analyses are performed on the identified extreme events and NS Tide continuous reconstructions. The goal is to assess the characteristics of high water-level events (e.g., duration, seasonality, and probability distribution) and extreme drivers at the local and regional scales.
A new low-cost device for the continuous measurement of peatland surface motion (“LoCoMotion”) 
Authors: Tiemeyer Bärbel , Frank Stefan , Piayda Arndt , Dettmann Ullrich , Seidel Ronny , Lempio Dirk
Published: March 2024

The surface of both wet and drained peatlands is permanently in motion due to both physical and biological processes. For a long-time, manually measured changes in surface elevation have been used as a proxy for carbon losses. High resolution measurements, however, are needed to avoid misinterpretation of such, e.g., annual, measurements, to improve process understanding and, potentially, to inform remote sensing approaches which are increasingly used to detect surface motion.So far, different methods have been employed to determine surface motion in a high temporal resolution, but the devices are either costly, demand extensive maintenance or acquire data sets (photos) requiring comparatively complicated data analysis. As we intended to measure surface motion in the German peatland monitoring programme and are thus establishing numerous monitoring sites distributed all over Germany, low costs and low energy demand are necessary. Furthermore, the device needs to be robust enough for year-round measurements and require little maintenance as monitoring sites could usually only be visited once a year. Finally, we aimed at high precision and simple data sets which can be easily handled and analysed. As none of the existing measurement approaches met our requirements, we developed a new device based on the potentiometric measurement of cable length combined with an affordable data logger.Here, we intend to introduce this new measurement device and demonstrate its suitability to acquire high-quality data sets on surface motion under different conditions regarding land use, hydrology and peat properties. Using case studies with data from different sites, we first tested the temperature stability and the comparability with established approaches (peat camera, double pressure sensors). To ensure the reproducibility at small spatial scale, we employed three replicate sensors within short distance at three contrasting peatlands. Further, we compared three anchoring methods. To determine the limits of our method, we tested the applicability to a site with presumably little surface motion (very shallow peat-derived soil).Results show no influence of air temperature on measurement results and good comparability with established devices. Depending on site conditions, different anchoring methods might be chosen. At all sites, surface motion was plausible given the water level, peat properties and weather conditions. We could detect surface motion even for shallow peat-derived soils. Further, we could also show for all three peatlands that the three replicate sensors show the same results unless distances to drainage pipes differ. Overall, the newly developed LoCoMotion device can be recommended for peatland research. 
Sensing and modeling plant ecohydrology for understanding tree and ecosystem responses to water stress
Authors: Matheny Ashley M. , Restrepo Acevedo Ana Maria , Ulatowski Maria , Cabraal Suvan , Missik Justine
Published: March 2024

Vegetation provides a critical nexus between the subsurface, biosphere, and atmosphere through the mediation of the exchange of water, carbon, and energy. Plants respond dynamically to local microclimates at both short and long timescales via mechanisms ranging from physiological behaviors, such as stomatal closure, to acclimation and adaptation. These responses influence land-atmosphere fluxes directly and are therefore crucial to understanding and predicting Earth system responses to a changing climate. As our community progresses towards increasingly physically-realistic models of vegetation responses to the environment, we face several new challenges such as understanding how whole-plant hydraulic strategies can best be represented using limited parameters, connecting non-linearly related observations such as water content and water potential within different organs, and representing responses to simultaneous stressor such as high temperatures and low water supply or high salinities and high evaporative demands. We use vignettes from two long-term tree and ecosystem level studies to demonstrate both progress and pitfalls towards overcoming each of these hurdles in terms of observational understanding of plant function and individual tree-based simulations of new observational data and the accompanying uncertainties. As we progress towards further incorporation of such vegetation ecohydrology modules within climate and weather models, it is becoming increasingly critical to represent well, and with limited parameters the manners in which plants manifest stress responses across time scales in order to better predict the complex feedbacks to carbon, water, and energy fluxes that subsequently develop.
How much data is needed for hydrological modeling? 
Authors: Beil-Myhre Bjarte , Matheussen Bernt Viggo , Shrestha Rajeev
Published: March 2024

Hydrological modeling has undergone a transformative decade, primarily catalyzed by the groundbreaking data-driven approach introduced by F. Kratzert et al. (2018) utilizing LSTM networks (Hochreiter & Schmidhuber, 1997). These networks leverage extensive datasets and intricate model structures, outshining traditional hydrological models, albeit with the caveat of being computationally intensive during training. This prompts a critical inquiry into the requisite volume and complexity of data for constructing a dependable and resilient hydrological model.In this study, we employ a hybrid model that amalgamates the strengths of classical hydrological models with the data-driven approach. These modified models are derived from the LSTM models developed by F. Kratzert and team, in conjunction with classical hydrological models such as the Statkraft Hydrology Forecasting Toolbox (SHyFT) from Statkraft and the Distributed Regression Hydrological Model (DRM) by Matheussen at Å Energi. The models were applied to sixty-five catchments in southern Norway, each characterized by diverse features and data records. Our analysis assesses the performance of these models under various scenarios of data availability, considering factors such as:- Varying numbers of catchments selected based on size or location.- The duration of the data records utilized for model calibration.- Specific catchment characteristics and outputs from classical models employed as inputs (e.g., area, latitude, longitude, or additional variables).Preliminary findings indicate that model inputs can be significantly stripped down without compromising model performance. With a limited set of catchment characteristics, the performance approaches that of the model with all characteristics, mitigating added uncertainty and model complexity. Additionally, increasing the length of data records enhances model performance, albeit with diminishing returns. Furthermore, our study reveals that augmenting catchments in the model does not necessarily yield a commensurate improvement in overall model performance. These insights contribute to refining our understanding of the interplay between data, model complexity, and performance in hydrological modeling.The novelty in this research is that the hybrid models can be applied in a relatively small area, with few catchments and a limited number of climate stations and catchment characteristics compared to the CAMELS setup, used by Kratzert and still achieve improved results. 
Interrelations between urban sprawl and national hydro-geomorphological emergencies in Italy
Authors: Gatto Alessio , Clo' Stefano , Martellozzo Federico , Segoni Samuele
Published: March 2024

Climate change and urban expansion are significantly contributing to an increase in catastrophic hydro-geomorphological events, which cause huge damage to society and economy. Since Italy is a relevant hot spot for these huge events, it was taken as a comprehensive case study for this work. The general aim is to analyze the interrelations between the recurrence of disasters at the province and municipality level and urban expansion. All the carried-out analyses are based on a dataset of municipalities and provinces affected by recent hydro-geomorphological disasters for which a national-level state of emergency was declared. The database consists of sets of every municipality and province hit by a critical event and included in the national state of emergency, which suffered damages and obtained subsidies for reconstruction in the last 9 years. For this work, the correlation between the recurrence of disasters on a province and municipality basis and urbanization was tested with a series of state-of-the-art indicators of hydrogeological hazard or risk provided by ISPRA (Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale – higher institute for environmental research and protection). Over 300 variables were considered and over 50 were tested, to find out which ones related better with impacts on territories. Starting from 2013 until now, were calculated soil sealing trends in areas at risk. The increase or decrease for each municipality hit by a critical event was analyzed to better understand local territories’ policies and how they face catastrophes. Firstly, it was discovered that in Italy, during the last ten years, there had been more than one hundred events that have required the intervention of National Civil Protection, with the declaration of a national-level state of emergency and the funding of interventions for first aid and restoration. Secondly, the best correlation between risk-related variables and hit municipalities was found considering cumulative months of emergency and the amount of urbanization in areas at medium hydro-geological risk. Lastly, taking into account this information, the study focused on soil urbanization trends: it was found that in each municipality the trend kept increasing at the same rate despite past damages and economic losses. The last focus of this work was, once the test was completed, evaluating the interplays over time between catastrophic events and policies of urban expansion. This work showed how urban expansion is deeply linked to hydro-geomorphological emergencies, demonstrating that at present the medium-hazard areas are underestimated by policymakers and are the main source of damages. Moreover, the urbanization trends for each municipality highlighted how local administrations, despite damages, don’t change their policies.
Inequity in personal exposure to PM2.5 and BC in transport microenvironments: a study case in Barranquilla metropolitan region, Colombia
Authors: Agudelo Castañeda Dayana , Maldonado Sandra , Nieto Maria Jose , Davila Julio , Arellana Julian , Oviedo Daniel
Published: March 2024

Examining the distribution of both the generation and exposure to traffic-related air pollution across diverse population groups stands as a pivotal environmental justice issue. From a social equity perspective, numerous inquiries arise when scrutinizing commuting patterns within metropolitan areas. Everyday urban mobility entails repeated and sometimes prolonged exposure to traffic-related air pollutants. PM2.5 and Black Carbon have been identified as one of the major pollutants and established as a health hazard.  As part of an interdisciplinary collaboration of experts on urban policy, air quality and transport studies the aim of this research is to assess inequity in patterns of personal exposure to PM2.5 and BC among users of different modes of transportation, including informal public transport. The case of study was Soledad, Colombia. Utilizing household surveys, we crafted user profiles for various modes of transportation, drawing insights from comprehensive data gathered through these surveys. Based on the analysis of mobility patterns, a cross-sectional study was designed to evaluate personal exposure to PM2.5 and BC during trips within the city. Pollutants were measured in real time, during peak, off-peak and weekend hours along typical routes defined by motorized three-wheelers drivers, which were taken as predefined routes for the other modes (car, bus). The average daily inhalation dose within the microenvironment was calculated differentiated by gender and age, according to the daily exposure factor. The findings unveiled significant disparities in PM2.5 and BC exposure, notably affecting adult women and individuals with disabilities, particularly those who frequently use motorized three-wheelers. Despite their lower exposure factor, these groups exhibited a higher dose of pollutants. This inequality underscores the crucial need to incorporate considerations of both accessibility and air quality in the formulation of sustainable urban transport policies.Key words: inequity; PM2.5; eBC; low-cost sensors; urban mobility; personal exposure, transport modes, environmental justice.
Non-negligible N2O Emission Hotspots: Rivers Impacted by Ion-adsorption Rare Earth Mining
Authors: Zhang Qiuying , Shu Wang , Gao Hongjie , Li Fadong , Li Zhao , Liu Shanbao , Chang Shen , Fu Qing
Published: March 2024

Rare earth mining causes severe riverine nitrogen pollution, but its effect on nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions and the associated nitrogen transformation processes remain unclear. Here, we characterized N2O fluxes from China’s largest ion-adsorption rare earth mining watershed and elucidated the mechanisms that drove N2O production and consumption using advanced isotope mapping and molecular biology techniques. Compared to the undisturbed river, the mining-affected river exhibited higher N2O fluxes (7.96±10.18 mmol m-2 d-1 vs. 2.88±8.27 mmol m-2 d-1, P=0.002), confirming that mining-affected rivers are N2O emission hotspots. Flux variations scaled with high nitrogen supply (resulting from mining activities), and were mainly attributed to changes in water chemistry (i.e., pH, and metal concentrations), sediment property (i.e., particle size), and hydrogeomorphic factors (e.g., river order and slope). Coupled nitrification-denitrification and N2O reduction were the dominant processes controlling the N2O dynamics. Of these, the contribution of incomplete denitrification to N2O production was greater than that of nitrification, especially in the heavily mining-affected reaches. Co-occurrence network analysis identified Thiomonas and Rhodanobacter as the key genus closely associated with N2O production, suggesting their potential roles for denitrification. This is the first study to elucidate N2O emission and influential mechanisms in mining-affected rivers using combined isotopic and molecular techniques. The discovery of this study enhances our understanding of the distinctive processes driving N2O production and consumption in highly anthropogenically disturbed aquatic systems, and provides the foundation for accurate assessment of N2O emissions from mining-affected rivers on regional and global scales.
Exploring solar wind drivers of omega bands
Authors: Cribb Vivian , Pulkkinen Tuija , Gallardo-Lacourt Bea , Kepko Larry , Ratzlaff Mackenzie , Donovan Eric
Published: March 2024

Omega bands are mesoscale auroral structures that emerge as eastward moving sinusoidal undulations of the poleward boundary of the equatorward oval in the post-midnight sector. They have been observed during the recovery phase of substorms and storms, and during periods of steady magnetospheric convection, but to date the statistical occurrence characteristics are unknown.While omega bands can be seen during stormtime events, their drivers and the magnetospheric conditions in which they appear are not well understood. Gaining insight into the geomagnetic conditions and solar wind drivers that give rise to omega bands could greatly benefit theoretical and simulation studies, ultimately enhancing our understanding of global magnetospheric dynamics.  In this work, we perform a superposed epoch analysis of geomagnetic and solar wind parameters for omega band events identified using THEMIS ASI from 2006 to 2013. We use data from OMNI and SuperMAG to quantify the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere system during these intervals. Since omega bands are known to have a near-Earth source, we hope to use this analysis to better understand their associated current systems and coupling mechanisms between the inner magnetosphere and ionosphere.
Structural characterization of hydrothermal fluid pathways in orogenic belts: Insights from the GeoTex project, Rhône Valley, Switzerland
Authors: Schmid Timothy C. , Herwegh Marco , Berger Alfons , Truttmann Sandro , Diamond Larryn W. , Wanner Christoph , Van den Heuvel Daniela B. , Madritsch Herfried , Diehl Tobias
Published: March 2024

Meteoric water may or may not infiltrate deeply into high-relief mountain ranges. Along its subsurface circulation path, the water heats up according to the background geothermal gradient and eventually emerges at lower elevation as thermal springs. Whether such topographically-driven circulation establishes or not depends on the host rock’s permeability and/or the hydraulic head. In terms of permeability, fault zones play an important role as they can provide preferential flow paths for fluids. This is particularly the case of active fault zones along which recurring slip counteracts clogging caused by mineral precipitation often found along non-active structures. Thus, the investigation of 4D fault and fracture geometries and their kinematics is a means to understand the locations and dynamics of geothermal systems in orogenic belts. Here, we present preliminary results from the ongoing GeoTex research project, which aims at better defining the geothermal potential of the Rhône Valley, an area of rugged topography in SW Switzerland. The Rhône Valley represents a geothermally active zone within the Alpine orogen, which is characterised by numerous thermal springs, regional-scale faults and enhanced seismic activity. It is therefore a promising setting to explore further for exploitation.Based on structural data from fieldwork and quantitative remote sensing, we characterise fault geometries (i.e., spatial orientation, relationship of intersecting fault families as well as kinematics) in the vicinity of known thermal springs. Observable paleo-fluid pathways marked by veins and rock alteration are being considered as analogues for recent thermal water circulation. These circulation paths are linked to major Alpine structures in the underlying basement units, such as large-scale strike-slip faults or the axial planes of uplifting basement domes. Our results suggest spatial correlations between the locations of hydrothermal springs and the 3D structure of the host massifs. Specifically, basement–cover contacts exert geometric and lithologic control at some sites, whereas locally dilatant domains along strike-slip faults as well as intersections of fault families focus outflow at other sites. Through the above approach in combination with seismological data, we have derived conceptual models for fluid flow, which may help to predict the locations of blind active geothermal systems elsewhere in the Rhône Valley.
Net CO2 release during chemical weathering in the north-western Himalaya: A dominant role of pyrite oxidation
Authors: Rout Rakesh Kumar , Tripathy Gyana Ranjan , Das Satyabrata , Rai Santosh K.
Published: March 2024

Oxidation of pyrites plays a key role in global chemical and climatic cycles. In particular, interaction of sulfuric acid produced through this process with carbonates releases CO2 to the atmosphere. This CO2 source counterbalances the CO2 consumed during silicate weathering in river basins, and hence, may influence earlier-suggested linkage between silicate weathering and global cooling events. In this study, we have investigated the dissolved major ions and sulfur isotopes of Indus headwaters to quantify the net effect of sulfide oxidation on the CO2 budget. This research is an attempt to evaluate the coupling between global Cenozoic cooling event and Himalaya weathering - ­a hypothesis which overlooked the CO2 supply via sulfide and organic oxidation. Towards this, we have employed sulfur isotopes (δ34S) as a proxy for riverine sulfate sources, mainly due to its distinct composition for the two major end-members [pyrite (~ -12 ‰) and gypsum (~ 17 ‰); [1]]. The average sulfate concentrations for the Indus headwaters are found to be higher than the regional rainfall, global average for rivers, and other major Himalayan rivers (e.g., Ganga and the Brahmaputra). Consistently, the mean δ34S for the Indus headwaters is also depleted with respect to that reported for the Ganga (~ 2 ‰) and Brahmaputra (~ 4 ‰) outflows [1-5]. Also, the sulfur isotopic values for the Indus headwaters are systematically depleted by 3 to 4 ‰ than that reported earlier for Indus mainstream [3]. These lighter δ34S values for the headwaters hint at relatively higher sulfide oxidation in the northwestern (NW) Himalaya compared to central and eastern Himalayas. Also, these processes are found to be more intense in the mountainous regions than in the floodplains. These observations are consistent with the basin lithology dominated by Paleozoic carbonates and organic-rich shales, and higher glacial coverage. Estimation of sulfide-derived cations from carbonate weathering and silicate-derived cations indicate that the chemical weathering in the Indus headwaters serve as a net source of CO2 to the atmosphere. This finding is in contrast with previous suggestion of significant CO2 removal during the Himalaya weathering and hence, challenges the role of land surface processes in the NW Himalaya in regulating the Cenozoic cooling event.  References[1] Burke et al., (2018), Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 496, 168-177.[2] Chakrapani et al., (2009), J. Asian Earth Sci., 34, 347-362.[3] Karim and Veizer, (2000), Chem. Geol., 170, 153-177.[4] Kemeny et al., (2021), Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 294, 43-69.[5] Turchyn et al., (2013), Earth Planet. Sci. Lett., 374, 36-46.
Copernicus Health Hub: Health community accessing environmental information from the Copernicus Programme
Authors: Letertre Julie , Borger Christian , Ananasso Cristina , Peuch Vincent-Henri
Published: March 2024

Copernicus is the Earth observation component of the European Union’s Space programme, looking at our planet and its environment to benefit all European citizens.The Copernicus services transform a wealth of satellite and ground-based measurements into value-added information by processing and analysing the products.All the information is provided with an open and free data policy to help public national and European authorities, policy makers, international organisations, and service providers to improve European citizens' quality of life.There are six operational Copernicus Services covering the whole Earth System including ocean, land, atmosphere, and more horizontal domains such as climate change, emergency and security.To facilitate the use of these information by the different user communities, some Thematic Hubs have been created and are under development. One of the first hubs is the Copernicus Health Hub (CHH) and it is focusing on the health community.The CHH collects and provides all the Copernicus environmental information that are pertinent to Health, following the WHO definition: Physical, Mental and Well-being. The Health Hub is also supporting the users in better exploiting and uptake Copernicus data and products (via documentation, access to catalogues, inspirational use case stories, …). In addition, the CHH should collect new requirements for the evolution of the Copernicus programme.In this presentation, the CHH will be introduced in more details, the different types of environmental information will be presented accompanied by some use cases to inspire further developments and new applications for the health community.
Origin in of the AMOC fresh water transport biases in a state-of-the-art climate model
Authors: Vanderborght Elian , Dijkstra Henk , Westen René
Published: March 2024

Recent quasi-equilibrium studies performed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) have revealed a bi-stable regime of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in this model. This suggests that the present-day AMOC might exist in a bi-stable regime, emphasizing the need for accurate predictions regarding the probability of an AMOC collapse over the next decades. However, the CESM exhibits notable biases, with a critical freshwater transport bias at 34°S in the Atlantic emerging as a key determinant of AMOC stability. Specifically, this bias enhances the stability of the AMOC, rendering the CESM unable to accurately predict the likelihood of AMOC tipping.In this study, we establish a direct connection between the freshwater transport bias in the CESM and a corresponding freshwater content bias in the Indian Ocean. By investigating the detailed freshwater balance, we identify specific regions within the Indian Ocean that exert a significant influence on the Atlantic freshwater transport bias at 34°S. This quantitative analysis enables us to construct an optimal surface-flux correction, which reduces the model biases. This physics-based surface-flux correction allows us to adjust the AMOC to its correct stability regime in the CESM without imposing unrealistic flux adjustments
Comparative analysis of recent seismic and volcanic events in the Tonga-Kermadec zone: Insights into Lithosphere-Atmosphere-Ionosphere Coupling
Authors: D'Arcangelo Serena , Regi Mauro , De Santis Angelo , Perrone Loredana , Cianchini Gianfranco , Soldani Maurizio , Piscini Alessandro , Fidani Cristiano , Sabbagh Dario , Lepidi Stefania , Di Mauro Domenico
Published: March 2024

The Tonga-Kermadec zone stands out as one of the most active areas in the world for continuous subduction processes characterizing the area. In the recent few years, it has been affected by two important geophysical events: first a strong earthquake of M7.2 on June 15, 2019, with the epicentre in Kermadec Islands (New Zealand), and then an exceptional eruption of Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai volcano on January 15, 2022. We focused our attention on the phenomena appearing before, during and soon after each event, employing a multi-parametric and multi-layer approach in order to analyse the geodynamics of the entire area and the involved lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling (LAIC). In details, for the lithosphere we conducted a seismic analysis of the earthquake sequence culminating with the mainshock on June 15, 2019, and of those preceding the big eruption, within a circular area with Dobrovolsky strain radius corresponding to that of an equivalent seismic event of magnitude equal to the energy released during the eruption. Moving to the atmosphere, we considered some parameters possibly influenced by seismic and volcanic events, using the CAPRI algorithm to the ECMWF datasets to detect anomalies in their values. Finally, by observing satellite data, we analysed the magnetic field and electron burst precipitations, potentially correlated to the events. All these observations, along with their similarities and differences, provide a better insight of the complex tectonic context.
Mapping the soil pollution risk at territorial scale for urban planning: examples from French cities
Authors: Clozel Blandine , Deslandes Benjamin , Cornu-Lachamp Alix , Le Guern Cécile
Published: March 2024

The municipalities often lack a global knowledge of their soil quality, including soil pollution. Mapping soil geochemical quality is carried out in some cities using the URGE protocol. This approach is however not systematically applied due to financial reasons, but also due to strategies focusing on investigations at the scale of redevelopment project or at site scale, in a case by case approach. A global information may thus be missing for urban planning. The presentation deals with a methodology to map the soil pollution risk at territorial scale, based on historical and current pollution pressure.The methodology takes into account information on historical and current industrial activities and agricultural activities, but also on anthropogenic deposits. The pressure linked to industrial sites uses a database that correlates activities and contaminants. This industrial pressure is considered higher than the agricultural one, because industrial activities generate more point-source contaminations, and agricultural activities generate more diffuse contaminations. The obtained maps are compared with neighbourhood scale studies. Two metropolis (Nantes and Rennes, France) serve as pilot cases.The results show that a large part of urban soils of the 2 pilot metropolis are concerned by potential soil pollution. The technical services of the metropolitan areas were surprised by the large footprint of the anthropic activities. Some intend to use the results in the planning documents to alert on the potential presence of pollutants in soils. In this frame, they choose a precautionary approach taking into account the maximum potential extent of the former industrial sites. Some others would like to use this information to nuance the soil multifunctionnality, in order to take into account the soil quality to reach the no net land take objective. Another application concerns the mapping of the desealing potential of soils, where the potential soil pollution risk is one of the environmental constraints taken into account. The comparison with the local scale studies shows the satisfying approximation of the methodology. For former industrial sites and anthropogenic deposits, a detailed knowledge of their extent allows a better precision of the map.  The progress concerns currently the sources of contamination. Further developments are needed to integrate the diffusion of contaminants linked to atmospheric deposition in particular. They could also consider potential pollution plume in groundwater. The pollution potential map should also be crossed with the potential natural anomalies linked to the geological setting.
Modeling heterogeneous farmers' response to climate change via agent-based simulation
Authors: Gazzotti Paolo , Ricart Sandra , Gandolfi Claudio , Castelletti Andrea
Published: March 2024

Farmers' risk preferences significantly shape their decision-making processes, influencing key strategies like crop selection and irrigation practices. Concurrently, climate change poses significant threats to agricultural activities, necessitating an in-depth examination of coupled human-nature systems. Farmers perceive changes in climate patterns, such as severe and more frequent droughts, but their reactions to these changes may be highly heterogeneous, influenced by factors such as individual risk aversion, satisfaction, uncertainty, interaction and comparison with other farmers. Agent-based modeling (ABM) has emerged as a powerful tool to capture the complexities of agricultural systems and simulate the interactions between farmers, their environment, and climate change. However, despite increasing calls to incorporate realistic human behavior, the prevailing paradigm remains the use of representative rational agents.This study presents an ABM application in the Adda River basin, Italy, where agents represent farmers who make decisions on crop type and irrigation method. The main goal is to understand how the system reacts and withstands the impact of emerging climate-change-driven scenarios. The study attempts to find a more realistic approach to agents' decision-making by implementing different behavioral models. The first model assumes profit maximization under perfect foresight, a traditional approach commonly used in ABM literature. The second model introduces uncertainty about future climate conditions and heterogeneity in farmers' risk aversion preferences on the basis of past performances. The third model embraces a more comprehensive approach to behavioral modeling, incorporating behavioral concepts such as reference points and loss aversion. This model acknowledges that farmers' decision-making is not solely guided by profit maximization, but also influenced by their prior experiences, perceptions of losses, and the potential for regret. This more comprehensive approach aims to offer a more comprehensive representation of farmers' decisions on crop selection and irrigation practices, under conditions of uncertainty and risk.  Agents’ individual preferences have been calibrated using survey data from the domain’s field.Implementing these different decision modules, we tested the agents’ response to various climate change scenarios, including historical conditions and future projections for representative storylines. Preliminary results reveal notable differences in system dynamics and resilience across the behavioral models and risk aversion levels. These findings provide insights into the appropriateness of behavioral modeling tools for understanding agricultural decision-making under evolving climatic conditions.
River dynamics in an active volcano with tropical humid conditions
Authors: Granados Sebastián , Surian Nicola , Alvarado Guillermo E.
Published: March 2024

 Active volcanic catchments within low-latitude tropical humid climates constitute some of the most dynamic and sediment-rich fluvial systems globally. The combination of factors such as active explosive vulcanism, frequent high-magnitude earthquakes, dense biodiverse vegetation, and intense rainfall leads to very high sediment supply and very active channel morphodynamics within such fluvial systems.Our research focused on channel dynamics in three remote and challenging-to-access reaches of the Sucio River, situated within the Irazú stratovolcanic structure in Costa Rica's central volcanic chain. This unique setting experiences extreme conditions, including rainfall exceeding 8000 mm annually, infrequent but significant volcanic eruptions (occurring over three times per century), high-magnitude earthquakes (>Mw5), and dense pristine vegetation. The mapped river reaches within this active volcano exhibit a distinctive confined multi-thread channel morphology predominantly comprised of coarse sediments, notably boulders, displaying exceptional dynamism. These reaches showcase rapid shifts between braided, island-braided, and anabranching morphologies in relatively short periods (
Simulating Subglacial Hydrology: Insights into the Triggers of Surges and GLOFs
Authors: Narayanan Neosha , Sommers Aleah , Steiner Jakob , Chu Winnie , Siddique Muhammad Adnan , Meyer Colin , Minchew Brent
Published: March 2024

The snowpack and glaciers of the Himalaya-Karakoram range feed several major river systems in Asia which provide water to over one billion people. Glacial retreat, glacial lake outburst flooding (GLOFs), and glacial ice mass balance are all likely strongly affected by subglacial hydrology. Unfortunately, little is known about Himalayan glaciers due to their remoteness and the danger of doing field work there. Recent advances in subglacial hydrological modeling may allow us to shed more light on subglacial processes that lead to changes in ice mass balance and glacial lake flooding. We present the first application of the SHAKTI subglacial hydrology model to a Himalayan glacier. We model the subglacial drainage network of Shishper Glacier, located in Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan, to understand its seasonal evolution and history of surges and GLOFs. We find that the modeled seasonal evolution of Shishper's subglacial system follows a similar seasonal pattern to past observed and modeled subglacial systems. Additionally, a central Röthlisberger channel persists through the winter and serves as the basis for the subglacial drainage system throughout the melt season. We also investigate the 2017-2019 surge of Shishper glacier and find that subglacial hydrology, while likely an important component of surging, cannot provide a standalone explanation for surges. This work serves as a nucleus for future modeling work in the Himalayas and provides a new framework for studying the effects of climate change on glacier dynamics, water availability, and glacier-related hazards in the Himalaya-Karakoram (H-K) region.
Forest-landscape dynamics across a climate gradient
Authors: Grieve Stuart , Owen Harry , Ruiz-Benito Paloma , Lines Emily
Published: March 2024

Forests and landscapes are fundamentally interconnected, with geomorphic process being modulated by vegetation dynamics, which in turn is influenced by landscape form. Trees play a critical role in shaping landscapes by redistributing sediment across the Earth's surface via gradual processes including tree throw and root growth, and catastrophic processes such as landsliding and debris flows, where spatially variable root cohesion contributes to slope failure likelihood. Conversely, landscape morphology controls the availability of light, water and nutrients for trees and has been observed to dive significant variability in the structure and composition of forests at both local and regional scales. Until recently, our ability to disentangle these processes at broad spatial scales has been limited due to a lack of high resolution data on tree morphology. Advances in Terrestrial Laser Scanning and UAV-LiDAR systems now allow forest plots to be scanned rapidly, capturing the morphology of hundreds of trees alongside the terrain they grow on.Working across a range of European forest ecosystems, representing a range of climates, we have constructed an unprecedented 3D dataset of European forest-landscape dynamics. From plot-level scans, individual trees are segmented from the digital forest and classified by species. State of the art structural metrics are then computed at an individual, species, and regional level across each distinct climate zone. This pan-European dataset is then coupled with high resolution topographic data, to explore the fundamental linkages between landscapes and vegetation.
Analyzing Climate Scenarios Using Dynamic Mode Decomposition With Control
Authors: Mankovich Nathan , Bouabid Shahine , Camps-Valls Gustau
Published: March 2024

Analyzing climate scenarios is crucial for quantifying uncertainties, identifying trends, and validating models. Objective statistical methods provide decision support for policymakers, optimize resource allocation, and enhance our understanding of complex climate dynamics. These tools offer a systematic and quantitative framework for effective decision-making and policy formulation amid climate change, including accurate projections of extreme events—a fundamental requirement for Earth system modeling and actionable future predictions. This study applies dynamic mode decomposition with control (DMDc) to assess temperature and precipitation variability in climate model projections under various future shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). We leverage global greenhouse gas emissions and local aerosol emissions as control parameters to unveil nuanced insights into climate dynamics.Our approach involves fitting distinct DMDc models over a high-ambition/low-forcing scenario (SSP126), a medium-forcing scenario (SSP245) and a high-forcing scenario (SSP585). By scrutinizing the eigenvalues and dynamic modes of each DMDc model, we uncover crucial patterns and trends that extend beyond traditional climate analysis methods. Preliminary findings reveal that temporal modes effectively highlight variations in global warming trends under different emissions scenarios. Moreover, the spatial modes generated by DMDc offer a refined understanding of temperature disparities across latitudes, effectively capturing large-scale oscillations such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The proposed data-driven analytical framework not only enriches our comprehension of climate dynamics but also enhances our ability to anticipate and adapt to the multifaceted impacts of climate change. Integrating DMDc into climate scenario analysis may help formulate more effective strategies for mitigation and adaptation.ReferencesAllen, Myles R., et al. "Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne." Nature 458.7242 (2009): 1163-1166.Zelinka, Mark D., et al. "Causes of higher climate sensitivity in CMIP6 models." Geophysical Research Letters 47.1 (2020): e2019GL085782.Proctor, Joshua L., Steven L. Brunton, and J. Nathan Kutz. "Dynamic mode decomposition with control." SIAM Journal on Applied Dynamical Systems 15.1 (2016): 142-161.
Greenhouse gas fluxes from grassland on organic soil used for beef grazing in the Irish midlands
Authors: Clancy Ian , Rambaud James , Gleasure George , Murphy Rachael , Lanigan Gary , Saunders Matthew
Published: March 2024

Irish grasslands act as a significant carbon store, containing approximately 1.5 billion tonnes of carbon in grasslands under mineral and organic soils. Histosols, recognized as substantial carbon sinks, typically contain between 1000-4000 tC ha-1, with carbon sequestration influenced by hydrological status, vegetation type, and associated management. It is currently estimated that more than 350,000ha of these soils are drained for permanent pasture in Ireland. Due to their high carbon stocks, these soils emit large quantities of carbon dioxide (CO2) upon drainage, which is further accelerated by farm management to an estimated ~8 Mt CO2 eq yr-1.This study measured field-scale fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) to establish land-use and land management emission factors for grasslands situated on shallow-drained nutrient-rich histosols in 2023. This site has been actively rewetted through partial drain blocking, presenting a potential greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation tool. The research contributes to more robust emission factors for key greenhouse gases, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of net ecosystem exchange (NEE). Additionally, it explores the relative impacts of changes in water table management on NEE and assesses how farm management influences the annual carbon budget.The eddy covariance technique is employed in this study to gauge the impact of water table management on a grassland with organic soil used for beef grazing in the Irish midlands. In early 2023, a weir was installed at the field's border to limit water loss. This study examines the impact of this change on CO2 and CH4 fluxes, incorporating meteorological observations and farm management data. Early results indicate that the site was a net source of CO2 in 2023, with variations in NEE throughout the year influenced by changes in water table height, meteorological conditions, and farm management. This investigation builds upon existing work in Ireland and other similar sites, comparing differences in management practices and evaluating their relative impact on a site's carbon balance. Furthermore, it addresses site-specific considerations when utilizing this data for national inventories or policy implementation.
Study of water body area changes in the desertification process of the Mongolian Plateau and analysis of driving factors
Authors: Yan Yujie , Cheng Yiben
Published: March 2024

Desertification on the Mongolian Plateau is deepening, and sand and dust have great negative impacts on many countries in East Asia. Based on meteorological and socio-economic data in the context of climate change, this study analyzed the driving mechanisms and impacts of desertification and water body area response on the Mongolian Plateau using, among others, the GTWR model. The following conclusions were drawn: the area of the Mongolian Plateau showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019, and the number of lakes larger than 1 km2 decreased by 173 or 537.3 km2 in Inner Mongolia, and by 737 or 2875.1 km2 in Mongolia, and all of them were dominated by lakes of 1-10 km2; and the analysis of the correlation between the area of the water bodies showed that the The reasons driving the change of water body area in Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region and Mongolia are similar and different, soil moisture and precipitation have obvious promotion effects, economic development and livestock numbers have different degrees of negative impacts on different countries; The GTWR model is used to represent the impacts of different influencing factors on the water body area in time and space, and the evaporation and GDP are shifted from slight inhibition to promotion, and the population and temperature are both inhibited. Soil moisture and livestock numbers are contributing; Surface water resource monitoring is important to deepen the desertification of the Mongolian Plateau and to provide better water resource recommendations and protection measures for the Mongolian Plateau.