bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Entitlements and Obligations
Authors: Schlicht Ekkehart
Published: October 2003

Market interactions are brought about by the interplay of entitlements and obligations. Entitlements are rights, as perceived by the individuals. They are subjectively perceived rights that go along with a motivational disposition to defend them. Obligations are the counterparts of entitlements. They refer to claims of others that are subjectively accepted, and go along with a motivational disposition to respect these claims. Very simple transactions must rely on a system of entitlements and obligations. Simple selfishness would not be sufficient to bring them about or sustain them. This is especially true for non‐enforceable contracts. The relationship of entitlements and obligations to norms is also discussed.
Fuzziness
Authors: Schlicht Ekkehart
Published: October 2003

A custom establishes a certain regularity, but this regularity is typically not clearly defined. The scope, where the custom applies, has fuzzy boundaries, and even the content of a custom is typically vaguely defined.
Clarity
Authors: Schlicht Ekkehart
Published: October 2003

Rigidity refers to constancy over some range of conditions. Such rigidity is not accounted for by the adaptive view expounded in the preceding chapter. In this chapter, rigidity is traced to concept formation and learning. In order to transmit rules of custom, these rules must be perceived and learned. Clarity eases learning, and transmission is biased towards clarity. This restricts the continuum of possible rules to a somewhat discrete spectrum. At the same time, the clarity requirement induces context dependency: Each rule of custom builds on the other rules, and custom must be conceived as a system. Fundamental clarity properties are shared across cultures.
The Texture of Custom
Authors: Schlicht Ekkehart
Published: October 2003

Reviews the thesis outlined in the book. Concept formation and learning are tied up with clarity requirements. Clarification shapes preferences and underlies the behavioural, motivational, and cognitive tendencies that give rise to property, the law, and the firm as a social institution and account for the way in which the division of labour is organized in society. There is a pervasive mutual interdependency between many features of society that is brought by the tendency towards clarity that underlies the formation and motivational force of custom.
Are Financial Markets Efficient?
Authors: Shleifer Andrei
Published: October 2003

Assesses the idea of efficient financial markets. It evaluates the theoretical and empirical foundations of the efficient markets hypothesis, emphasising the cracks that have emerged in them. Special attention is given to the rationality of investors, the randomness of the trades, and the role of arbitrageurs. Then the author suggests that an alternative theory—behavioural finance—could be more successful in explaining the evidence. The chapter concludes with a brief outline of the structure of the book.
Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets
Authors: Shleifer Andrei
Published: October 2003

Examines how noise traders can limit arbitrage even in an environment that is very close to a textbook model. The author constructs an overlapping generation (OLG) model where noise traders generate unpredictable erroneous beliefs and arbitrageurs try to exploit these misperceptions. He shows that noise traders can affect prices and that they could even earn a higher average rate of return. The model also illustrates that even arbitrage of fundamentally identical securities can be risky, so with lack of close substitutes, it might be riskier still.
Positive Feedback Investment Strategies
Authors: Shleifer Andrei
Published: October 2003

Expands the idea that rational arbitrage not only may be limited in bringing about market efficiency but may actually generate price bubbles and make markets less efficient. It begins by presenting an alternative view of price patterns observed in the data on security returns—one based on feedback trading. It also describes the interactions of noise traders and arbitrageurs and shows that in cases in which arbitrageurs trade in anticipation of noise trader demand, they move the price away from rather than towards fundamental values.
Separate and Unequal
Authors: King Desmond
Published: October 2003

Desmond King argues that the US federal government was inherently unequal in their treatment of Black Americans both in its own ranks as well as through federal programmes, especially before the 1960s; instead of thwarting segregated race relations, he maintains, the federal government participated in their maintenance and diffusion. Using extensive and original archival sources, King documents how Black American employees were segregated in federal government departments, the US Armed Forces, federal penitentiaries, and within housing and service programmes. In addition, King argues that the federal government played a role in sustaining and fostering segregated race relations to an extent little acknowledged by scholars. Finally, he argues and demonstrates that the universality of segregated race relations in the Federal government is often overlooked by a disproportionate emphasis upon their presence in the South. The book concludes with an analysis of the consequences of these trends for understanding the US federal government and race relations as well as data documenting the relative improvements for Black Americans employed by the government.
The Politics of Segregation in Post‐Reconstruction America
Authors: King Desmond
Published: October 2003

Examines post‐Reconstruction race relations—focusing mainly from 1856–1964—and outlines the legal and political factors permitting its dissemination. King formulates segregation as an arrangement whereby Black Americans, as a minority, were systematically treated in separate, but constitutionally sanctioned, ways. He examines various laws and policies that condoned segregation ever since the Supreme Court accepted the ‘separate but equal’ doctrine as a justification of segregation in 1896 up until the passage of the Civil Rights Act of 1964. King also examines the congressional and presidential politics of race relations under the administrations of Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and Harry Truman.
Joining the Government: ‘Because I Dared to Be Black’
Authors: King Desmond
Published: October 2003

King analyses the difficulties facing Black Americans attempting to join the civil service and the inadequacy of the US Civil Service Commission's monitoring of both recruitment and promotion. He reviews the reform of the federal civil service from a patronage‐based to a merit‐based hiring system and then explains how the mechanism deployed by the civil service systematically discriminated against Black American applicants. In his examination, King focuses on specific hiring practices like the ‘rule of three’ as well as institutions including the Civil Service Commission, congressional committees, and the National Association for the Advancement of Colored People (NAACP).
Pluralism and Political Liberalism
Authors: Callan Eamonn
Published: October 2003

The cardinal idea in Rawls's political liberalism is that a better conception of liberal justice is available to us once we ground principles of justice in an ‘overlapping consensus’ among the many reasonable doctrines that abound in a free society instead of any of the comprehensive liberal doctrines that liberal philosophers have traditionally championed. Rawls's contrast between the political and comprehensive liberalism is specious, though his political conception of the person and his related conception of ‘reasonable pluralism’ are shown to provide a compelling perspective on the proper scope of diversity and the conduct of political education in a liberal society.
Patriotism and Sentimentality
Authors: Callan Eamonn
Published: October 2003

The inculcation of patriotism is often construed as a curb on the development of critical reason, and hence, as repugnant to any conception of political education that valorizes autonomy. This view of patriotic education, recently defended by William Galston, is shown to rest on illiberal premises about the role of emotions in public life. A form of liberal patriotic education, derived from Rawls's account of moral development, that escapes the pitfalls of Galston's account is delineated.
Common Schools, Separate Schools
Authors: Callan Eamonn
Published: October 2003

The institutionalization of political education requires thought about the kind of schooling that will realize its ends with due regard for whatever moral constraints limit what the state may do for the sake of those ends. It is argued that the liberal state can permissibly show systematic partiality for ‘common schools’ that children from diverse social groups attend on terms of mutual respect over ‘separate schools’ that cater to students on the basis of selective ethnic or religious criteria or the like. On the other hand, there may be a cogent case for state sponsorship of separate schools during the early years of schooling if these accept the ends of liberal political education.
Conclusion
Authors: Callan Eamonn
Published: October 2003

Canvasses some of the ineradicable obstacles to success in liberal democratic civic education. The persistence of unreasonable pluralism in any society is the most obvious obstacle; another is the permanent fact of reasonable pluralism; and finally, the tension between the ‘rational’ and the ‘reasonable’ in the lives of ordinary citizens would be an inevitable source of failure even if these other two could be surmounted.
Estimation
Authors: Duo Qin
Published: October 2003

Narrates the process of how estimation was formalized. Estimation can be seen as the genesis of econometrics, since finding estimates for coefficients of economically meaningful relationships has always been the central motive and fulfilment of applied modelling activities. The process therefore became separated out as one of the basic steps along with model construction, identification, and testing. Subsequent research activities in estimation were confined to technical development of new optimal estimators for increasingly complicated model forms. The first section of the chapter describes the early developments in estimation methods centring around the least squares (LS) principle; how this led to the maximum‐likelihood (ML) method in a simultaneous‐equations system is the content of the second section; the third section turns to look at special problems in the context of time‐series analysis; other developments concerning errors‐in‐variables models are summed up in the fourth section; and the final completion of basic estimation theory in orthodox econometrics takes up the final section.
Identification
Authors: Duo Qin
Published: October 2003

Narrates the process of how identification was formalized in econometrics. The issue of identification stemmed from the quest to know the attainability of economically meaningful relationships from statistical analysis of economic data in early estimation attempts. It arose out of the ‘correspondence’ problems ‘between economic activity, the data that activity generates, the theoretical economic model and the estimated relationship’ (Morgan, 1990). When identification theory was eventually formalized, its purpose became focused on the conditions under which a certain set of values of structural parameters could be uniquely determined from the data among all the permissible sets embodied in a mathematically complete theoretical model, usually composed of a simultaneous‐equations system. These conditions are most commonly known as the order and rank conditions in the context of linear, simultaneous‐equations models in present‐day econometrics textbooks. The emergence of identification theory played a key role in the formal establishment of the structural approach of orthodox econometrics through its links to model testing and model specification. Traces the formalization of identification theory around two interwoven themes: how the identification problem was perceived and described in connection with the other issues in econometric modelling; and how the problem was formalized and tackled with mathematical and statistical means. The first section outlines the early appearance of the identification problem and some ad hoc solutions for particular cases and model forms before the mid‐1930s; the second centres upon the initial systematic work on the issue around 1940; the third is devoted to the contribution of the Cowles group; and the completion of the theoretical framework and its overlaps with other modelling issues form the subject of the last section.
The History Revisited
Authors: Duo Qin
Published: October 2003

Mainstream econometric research in the 1960s and the 1970s comprised primarily technical refinements and extensions of the structural modelling procedure. The author, therefore marks an end‐point around 1960 in the historical study of the formation of econometrics, and asks in this concluding chapter of the book what should and can be learnt from this period of history with respect to present and future econometric research. She has seen during the historical investigation presented that the key points of historic significance are the junctures at which economic thinking and mathematical statistics merged to match economics with data information. In the light of this, she tries to draw some more concrete lessons from these junctures, hoping to provide some useful points, particularly with respect to issues pertinent to present econometric developments. The prime impression of the history is that most important econometric advances have resulted from ingenious interfusion of statistical ideas with economic thinking, in regard to applied problems of interest, with the single most significant event of this sort being, perhaps, the acceptance of probability theory.
The Principle of Moral Impartiality
Authors: Fitzgibbons Athol
Published: October 2003

Discusses the character of Smith's moral philosophy, the meaning of the impartial spectator, and its intended scientific character.
The Laws of Nature
Authors: Fitzgibbons Athol
Published: October 2003

Describes Smith's laws of Nature, including his debt to Stoic logic and its reliance on essences. It considers Smith's response to David Hume's scepticism, differentiates Smith's methodology from positivism, and traces the evolution of the idea that Smith's theory was scientific.
Social and Political Laws
Authors: Fitzgibbons Athol
Published: October 2003

Explains that Smith's theory of jurisprudence was derived from the principle of impartiality as perceived by an impartial spectator. It points out that for scientific reasons Smith elevated justice over benevolence and the other virtues, and discusses the implications.
The Moral Foundations of Economic Growth
Authors: Fitzgibbons Athol
Published: October 2003

Points out that Smith distinguished between self‐love and self‐interest, and based his theory of economic exchange firmly on the former. It explains why Smith's theory of capital and economic growth was based on virtue. It describes the differences between the real eighteenth‐century Adam Smith and the pseudo Adam Smith in economic theory.
The Political Economy of the Higher Virtues
Authors: Fitzgibbons Athol
Published: October 2003

Marx's theory of alienation was adapted from Smith's theory of the virtues, and this chapter examines the original Smithian theory. It considers the human and social consequences of the division of labour, and discusses how the situation could be affected by education and religion. Smith's ideal political structure is analysed.
Introduction: Power and the US–Chinese Relationship
Authors: Foot Rosemary
Published: October 2003

This introductory chapter starts by discussing the main objectives of the book (which are to uncover the range of conditions that led to a change in American relations with China – from hostility to rapprochement to normalization in 1979, and to examine the management of that relationship since normalization) and giving an outline of its contents. It points out that each chapter may be read in isolation, although they are also parts of a complex whole. The rest of the chapter discusses the concept of power, the US as hegemon, and power in relation to the American—Chinese relationship.
China as the ‘Wave of the Future’: The Chinese Politico‐Economic Model
Authors: Foot Rosemary
Published: October 2003

This is the last of four chapters focusing on America’s perceptions of China’s capabilities, and dwelling on the correspondence between those perceptions and the projected consequences. It focuses on US perceptions of the political economy of China from the 1950s to 1978 and its perceived consequences for China’s capabilities both internally and as a political and economic model for other developing countries. Although the decline in Beijing’s hard and soft power resources did not follow a linear trajectory, the apparent overall weaknesses of its economy eased America’s fears about the Third World impact of its politico-economic model, and also reduced concerns that any contact between Washington and Beijing would raise the prestige of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to the point where its path to development would be revived as a serious source of inspiration in large parts of the developing world. The chapter dwells primarily on China’s perceived soft power attributes. The different sections look at domestic order and advancement in China in the 1950s, the Chinese model under stress from 1959 to 1965, the impact of the early Cultural Revolution in the second half of the 1960s, and restabilization and re-emergence in 1969–78.
International Order and US Structural Power: The US Relationship With China Since 1979
Authors: Foot Rosemary
Published: October 2003

This chapter charts aspects of the relationship between China and the United States from the normalization of relations in 1979, up to 1994. The emphasis is on China’s closer involvement with the international community, the exercise of US structural power designed to facilitate or retard the pace of that involvement, and China’s responses to the norms and rules of behaviour in an international order that many have seen as having been promoted largely by the United States. The chapter also examines the US attempt to consolidate bilateral ties with China after normalization in pursuit of the particular objectives of its foreign policy, but more especially to encourage China's contribution to international order. The different sections look at normalization and adjustment in 1979–84, the deepening of ties in 1985–89, and reassessments made in the period 1989–94.
Summary and Conclusion
Authors: Foot Rosemary
Published: October 2003

A brief summary is given of the different stages in the changes in relations between China and the United States from 1949 to the 1990s, and various conclusions are drawn.
The Concept of Rights
Authors: Martin Rex
Published: October 2003

Rights are socially established ways of acting or ways of being treated (or, alternatively, such ways as ought to be so established); more specifically, a right so understood is something that is (1) fairly determinate and that (2) can be similarly distributed on an individual basis to each and all of those who are relevantly said to be rightholders. A right is always regarded as (3) a beneficial way of acting or of being treated both for the rightholder and, more generally, for society. Thus, (4) it is or should be something socially accepted – recognized and protected in given societies, and such acceptance would be (5) deemed reasonable, even by outsiders, in that it made explanatory sense. Here the way of acting or of being treated in question could be exhibited, plausibly, as a means to, or as a part of, accomplishing some interest or perceived benefit or other good (or desirable) thing. Accordingly, (6) normative directives could be issued to others, to those who are not rightholders, and (7) further initiatives could be taken as a feature of any such successful claim to rights status. The notion of practical inference (itself a part of the theory of the explanation of action) is used to structure much of this analysis.

Rights thus understood can be ranged under three main headings: they can be liberties of action (for example, the freedom to travel) but also avoidances of injury (such as the injury of bodily harm) or even the receipt of services (including such things as public schooling, retirement benefits, and medical care).
Rights as Valid Claims
Authors: Martin Rex
Published: October 2003

No real consensus has emerged on whether rights, in order to be rights, require social recognition (and beyond that, social maintenance). In considering this issue one school of thought—embracing both classical natural rights theorists and some contemporary advocates of human rights—has tended to emphasize that individuals can have rights independent of organized society, of social institutions, and hence of social recognition and maintenance in any form. The rather common characterization that rights are essentially claims, can be taken as a way of emphasizing that rights hold irrespective of whether they have been acknowledged, either in the society or, more specifically, by that person against whom the claim is made.

Some have said here simply that rights are claims (B. Mayo), others say they are entitlements (H. J. McCloskey), and yet others (most notably Joel Feinberg) say they are valid claims.

The chapter argues that the fatal flaw in the theory of rights as valid claims (in any of its formulations) is the suggestion that practices of governmental recognition and enforcement in law can be dispensed with in the case of legal rights. Indeed, this is the very point at which both Ronald Dworkin and Joseph Raz, who might otherwise be taken to be sympathizers with some form of the valid claims thesis, desert that thesis for one that emphasizes that legal rights are established practices (that they are institutionally established ways of acting/being treated); otherwise they cannot count as legal rights.
Civil Rights
Authors: Martin Rex
Published: October 2003

Civil rights are universal rights, rights that hold good for all citizens or all persons in a given society; on the assumption that rights are beneficial to the holder, civil rights are justified by the fact of their general and mutually perceived benefit. Typically, there are many rights in a society devoted to civil rights; the problem then, is that rights can conflict. Even though this problem of conflict of rights can be solved by careful drafting (legislative balancing, as it is called) or by assigning priorities in zones of conflict (through assigning weights to given rights), such devices can’t solve conflicts between different exercises of one and the same right (so‐called ‘internal conflict’). Thus, we need as well on‐site resolution of conflicts by administrators and judges. In sum, we need institutional measures to harmonize rights; only then can we eliminate conflict between rights. Natural rights, which disavow such measures in principle, would inevitably conflict and hence collapse into an incoherent set.
Allegiance and the Place of Civil Disobedience
Authors: Martin Rex
Published: October 2003

This chapter is concerned with political obligation, i.e. with one's obligation to obey the laws of one's own country. Here, it is suggested that such an obligation (or one's ‘allegiance,’ as I prefer to call it) varies from system to system; it is one thing in Plato's republic but something quite different in a democratic system of rights. We are concerned, then, with the allegiance of a typical citizen, when acting in character, within a given system of political principles and institutions.

It is argued that citizens have an obligation, a system‐specific duty, in a democratic system of rights to conform to the civil rights laws there. This institutional duty is then extended to take in one's duties towards some non‐rights laws (e.g. tax laws), but it never embraces literally all laws in that society. In the course of the analysis, the views of both John Simmons and John Rawls are criticized.

Democratic institutions provide an example of an inherently imperfect procedure for making civil rights laws; the connection between such institutions and such laws represents at best only a probabilistic tendency. In the end, then, we find that citizens have no duty to conform to all non‐defective rights laws simply in so far as they are enacted laws; The typical citizen can be civilly disobedient with respect to some civil rights laws (subject to certain constraints, e.g. nonviolence) while still satisfying fully the conditions of allegiance in a democratic system of rights.
Justifying Coercion: The Problem of Punishment
Authors: Martin Rex
Published: October 2003

This chapter begins with a brief characterization of punishment under law. The central claim is then made that punishment would be justified in a system of civil rights if (1) it prevents or at least substantially deters violations of rights while at the same time being necessary to this particular task (either in that no alternative which altogether dispenses with punishment can do the job at all or that none can do it as well). Of course, we realize that punitive sanctions often infringe rights of the violator; accordingly, we must also require (drawing here on the notion of the competitive weight of rights) that (2) the right protected is not outweighed by the right infringed by sanction and that it cannot be substantially better protected by a sanction that infringes a right of roughly the same weight (or, of course, one of even lesser weight). Thus, the important grounds for punitive sanctions in a system of rights are: overall necessity (as in 1 above), compatibility with rights, and relative deterrent effectiveness (as in 2 above).

On these same grounds, a policy of not punishing the innocent, of punishing only adjudged violators, would be incorporated in the background institutions,in particular, the trial system, that served to admit people, upon determination of their guilt, into the practice of being punished.
The Political Economy of Labour Market Institutions
Authors: Saint-Paul Gilles
Published: October 2003

Most economists think that unemployment is high in Europe because of rigid labour market institutions such as minimum wages, unemployment benefits, and employment protection. The book develops a theory of labour market institutions as the outcome of the political process. A central hypothesis is that they will be chiefly determined by the interests of employed workers with intermediate skill levels. We show that redistributive conflict between these workers and more skilled workers may lead to an outcome where a set of rigid institutions arise. We analyse why reform may be difficult because of status‐quo bias, and discuss how it may nevertheless be implemented by choosing an appropriate design or timing for the reform.
The No‐Rent Society
Authors: Saint‐Paul Gilles
Published: October 2003

This chapter introduces basic concepts and notations by looking at a homogeneous labour market with no employee rents. In such a world, there is no support for labour market rigidities. We show that this result follows from a more general, deeper property, namely that under free entry of firms, the unemployed should be in favour of leaving the determerination of job characteristics to the market.
A Less Perfect World: Market Rents and Redistributive Conflict
Authors: Saint‐Paul Gilles
Published: October 2003

We show how in a heterogeneous labour market, a group of workers may benefit from rigid institutions. This is because they allow it to collectively exploit monopoly power at the expense of other groups that are complementary in production. It is shown that if rigidity arises, it is likely to be associated with employee rents. The greater the rent the fewer are the workers are exposed to unemployment and lower is the elasticity of labour demand. In some cases, rigidities are favoured over fiscal transfers because they are sustained by a larger coalition, including members of the taxed group.
Wage Rigidity and Social Cohesion
Authors: Saint‐Paul Gilles
Published: October 2003

We study the effect of rigidity when there exists a redistributive system. We show that rigidity reduces redistributive pressure by bringing the median income closer to the mean. Consequently, it is supported by a coalition of lower‐middle class and upper‐middle class workers, while the extremes lose. Political support for rigidity is stronger at intermediate levels of inequality, while greater elasticity of labour demand reduces the cohesive effects of rigidity.
Unemployment Benefits and Other Measures for the Unemployed
Authors: Saint‐Paul Gilles
Published: October 2003

This chapter analyses the political support for unemployment benefits. The traditional view, which focuses on their insurance value, is reformulated. We qualify it by introducing positive effects of unemployment benefits on wages, which may overturn the traditional predictions. For example, an increase in exposure to unemployment may reduce the support for employment protection, rather than increase it, as is predicted when insurance effects dominate. The chapter also discusses the determinants of active labour market policies.
The Constituency Effect
Authors: Saint‐Paul Gilles
Published: October 2003

This chapter discusses the constituency effect. By this, it is meant that when a labour market institution is in place, it creates its own political support. This in turn generates status‐quo bias and resistance to reform. The effect is illustrated in the case of employment protection. Other applications include the role of initial conditions and of pre‐announcing the reform.
Two‐Tier Systems
Authors: Saint‐Paul Gilles
Published: October 2003

Studies the role of two‐tier systems in generating consensus for a reform that would be otherwise repelled. It is shown that if exposure to unemployment is initially too low, such strategy will fail as well. Furthermore, it can be used to generate political support for an across‐the‐board reform at a later stage. However, recognition of that possibility by voters ex‐ante will reduce the political support for the two‐tier reform.
Politico‐Economic Complementarities
Authors: Saint‐Paul Gilles
Published: October 2003

This chapter discusses politico‐economic complementarities, i.e. the fact that a given institution, when in place, may create political support for another one. If complementarities prevail, reform packages are more politically viable than isolated reforms. Complementarities are strong between institutions that create rents, such as wage rigidity, and institutions that protect rents, such as employment protection. On the other hand, if exposure effects dominate, there is no politico‐economic complementarity between rent‐creating, or rent‐protecting institutions and unemployment benefits. Finally, complementarities arise if competing groups set their own level of rigidity.
The Politics of Environmental Discourse
Authors: Hajer Maarten A.
Published: October 2003

The book identifies the emergence and increasing political importance of ‘ecological modernization’ as a new language in environmental politics. In this conceptual language, environmental management appears as a ‘positive sum game’. Combining social theory with detailed empirical analysis, the book illustrates the social and political dynamics of ecological modernization through a study of the acid rain controversies in Great Britain and the Netherlands. The book concludes with a reflection on the institutional challenge of environmental politics in the years to come. The book is not only seen as a ‘modern classic’ in the literature on environmental politics but is also renowned for its application of discourse analysis to the study of the policy process.
The New Environmental Conflict
Authors: Hajer Maarten A.
Published: October 2003

Discusses the character of the modern environmental conflict. As the existence of environmental degradation is now commonly accepted, the conflict has become ‘discursive’: it is not about a predefined unequivocal problem with competing actors pro and con, but is rather a continuous struggle over the definition and meaning of the environmental problem itself.
Discourse Analysis
Authors: Hajer Maarten A.
Published: October 2003

Introduces discourse analysis as a way to analyse the policy process. Draws on two different discourse analytical approaches: the work of Michel Foucault and the social psychological work by Michael Billig and Rom Harré. Concludes by comparing the analysis of policy making using the concept of discourse coalitions to the well‐known concept of ‘advocacy coalitions’.
The Historical Roots of Ecological Modernization
Authors: Hajer Maarten A.
Published: October 2003

Contextualizes the contemporary environmental conflict in the tradition of thinking about man and nature relationships. Discusses the origins of environmentalism and gives a detailed interpretation of the recent history from Blueprint for Survival to the new discourse of ecological modernization of the 1980s and 1990s. Explains how this new discourse could emerge.
Accumulating Knowledge, Accumulating Pollution? Ecological Modernization in the United Kingdom
Authors: Hajer Maarten A.
Published: October 2003

Focuses on the history of the political problem of acid rain in the United Kingdom. Reconstructs two distinct discourse coalitions: a traditional pragmatic one and a coalition constructed around eco‐modernist ideas and concepts. It is shown how acid rain became an ‘emblematic’ issue via which actors sought to show that the traditional pragmatic approach to environmental policy making had become out of date.
Ecological Modernization: Discourse and Institutional Change
Authors: Hajer Maarten A.
Published: October 2003

Discusses ecological modernization in the 1990s. Also makes the case that discourse indeed matters in the analysis of politics and policy. Gives a detailed account of the various discursive mechanisms that were at work in the regulation of acid rain. Concludes with a search for a ‘reflexive’ form of ecological modernization in which the new discourse is combined with the introduction of a set of institutional practices that make it possible to combine it with a notion of discursive democracy.
The Monarchy and the Constitution
Authors: Bogdanor Vernon
Published: October 2003

Seeks to answer the question `How does monarchy function in a modern democracy?’ Since the British Constitution is so heavily dependent upon history, the question can only be answered historically. The rules that regulate Britain's constitutional monarchy and the so‐called personal prerogatives are then discussed. Three twentieth‐century constitutional crises in which the authority of the sovereign was in question are then analysed. Finally, the book considers how the monarchy is financed, and the relationship between the monarchy and the Church of England and the monarchy and the Commonwealth. The concluding chapter considers the future of constitutional monarchy.
The Appointment of a Prime Minister
Authors: Bogdanor Vernon
Published: October 2003

Normally, in a first past the post‐electoral system in which majority single‐party government is the rule, the sovereign has no choice as to who to call to the Palace. But, in cases of emergency—war or economic crisis, as in 1931—the sovereign may enjoy discretion. In such circumstances, it may be necessary to create a coalition government, as in 1915, 1916, 1931, or 1940, and the sovereign's role may then be crucial. The danger is that, in using his or her discretion, the sovereign's actions may appear partisan, and the sovereign's actions will then be labelled `unconstitutional’.
The Sovereign's Private Secretary
Authors: Bogdanor Vernon
Published: October 2003

The office of private secretary to the sovereign is crucial to the working of constitutional monarchy. But it evolved in an unnoticed and unplanned way, almost by accident. The history of the development of the office is traced, and it is contrasted with the office of private secretary to the Governor‐General in Commonwealth monarchies. The private secretary needs to enjoy the confidence not only of the sovereign but also of the Prime Minister and of the Leader of the Opposition.
The Sovereign and the Church
Authors: Bogdanor Vernon
Published: October 2003

The Church of England and the Church of Scotland (a Presbyterian church) are both established churches, and the sovereign enjoys a special relationship with each. She is under a statutory duty to maintain and preserve the two churches, which are national churches. In Wales and Northern Ireland, there is no established church, and there is no established church in any other member state of the Commonwealth. `Establishment’ is not, however, a very precise term, and the sovereign's relations with the established churches in England and Scotland are very different. Disestablishment of the Church of England is once again a lively political issue as it was for much of the nineteenth century.
The Sovereign and the Commonwealth
Authors: Bogdanor Vernon
Published: October 2003

The sovereign's relationship with the Commonwealth derives from Britain's imperial history. For, nearly all of the members of the Commonwealth are formerly dependent territories of the Empire, which chose to cooperate voluntarily on a basis of full constitutional equality. Since 1953, the Crown has been divisible, and the Queen of Britain is now also Queen of 15 other Commonwealth monarchies, including Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Jamaica, etc. In those countries, the functions of the sovereign are, in practice, undertaken by a Governor‐General, appointed by the sovereign on the advice of the Prime Minister of the country concerned. But, since 1949, it has been possible for members of the Commonwealth to become republics, and the majority of the member states are now republics. They must, however, recognize the sovereign as `the symbol of the free association of its independent member nations and as such the Head of the Commonwealth’. But the position of Head of the Commonwealth is not an office but rather an expression of a symbolic character without any separate constitutional standing or capacity.
Econometrics: Alchemy or Science?
Authors: Hendry David F.
Published: October 2003

This collection of published papers records the development of an approach to econometric modelling that has reached a highly successful stage. The methodology of modelling ‘observational data’, as opposed to experimental data, which can be replicated, is analysed to highlight the fundamental flaws in various approaches, and the possibilities of others. Criteria for model adequacy are formulated (congruence and encompassing), and alternative approaches to building empirical models are compared on their ability to deliver such models. A typology of models elucidates their properties, and a taxonomy of information sources clarifies testing. Estimation is summarized by an estimator generating equation. The value of exploring the development path is to reveal by attempted applications why many widely used approaches are inadequate. The outcome is to demonstrate the viability of a general‐to‐specific approach that commences from a specification deemed more than adequate to characterize the evidence, and simplifies to a parsimonious representation that captures the main factors. By artificial Monte Carlo simulations on experiments designed by others, the success of that approach is established, leading to automatic model selection by software that can outperform practitioners.
Econometrics – Alchemy or Science?
Authors: Hendry David F.
Published: October 2003

The key message is that econometrics is potentially scientific precisely because alchemy is creatable, detectable, and refutable. Since the validity of a model is an intrinsic property in relation to the evidence, it cannot be affected by how that model is selected; the three golden rules of econometrics are ‘test, test, and test’. However, the selection method is not thereby irrelevant: some methods are inherently flawed. The ‘alchemy’ here explains the behaviour of UK inflation ‘better’ by rainfall than by the stock of money. Later analyses reveal the hidden flaws thus resolved, when empirical regressions are meaningful.
Testing Dynamic Specification in Small Simultaneous Systems: An Application to a Model of Building Society Behaviour in the United Kingdom
Authors: Hendry David F. , Anderson Gordon J.
Published: October 2003

The approach evaluated here is that of simplifying an initial general system, which accounts for mis‐specifications in previous empirical models as predicted by the economic theory—a variant of encompassing. The underlying economic theory is a static long‐run solution of a dynamic adjustment process, to deliver a model form later recognized as an ‘error‐correction’ (or more properly, equilibrium‐correction) mechanism. The empirical analysis is for Building Societies (the UK equivalent of Savings and Loans).
Dynamic Specification
Authors: Hendry David F. , Pagan Adrian R. , Sargan J. Denis
Published: October 2003

This survey provides a route map, sketching the major issues, models, concepts, and techniques. A taxonomy of model types is presented, each being examined for advantages and drawbacks as a generic form. Exogeneity and the overall model reduction framework are described. Systems are considered, and the problem of testing autoregressive errors against mis‐specification of the lag structure is resolved using the notion of common factors in lag polynomials.
Serial Correlation as a Convenient Simplification, not a Nuisance: A Comment on a Study of the Demand for Money by the Bank of England
Authors: Hendry David F. , Mizon Grayham E.
Published: October 2003

Sargan's COMFAC procedure for single equations (common factors in lag polynomials) is exposited. Four important conceptual clarifications arise. First, residual autocorrelation does not entail error autoregression. Secondly, autoregressive errors are common factor dynamics. Thirdly, discriminating between systematic dynamics and error dynamics can only be done in the context of a general‐to‐simple strategy, with autocorrelated errors potentially reducing the parameterization. Fourthly, differencing imposes common factors of unity. The empirical performance of COMFAC was illustrated for modelling broad money demand, and for integrating economic analysis with statistical modelling; long‐run money demand theory guided the empirical estimates of the equilibrium‐correction model.
Econometric Modelling of the Aggregate Time‐Series Relationship Between Consumers' Expenditure and Income in the United Kingdom
Authors: Hendry David F. , Davidson J. E. H. , Srba F. , Yeo S.
Published: October 2003

Simple time‐series representations dominated quarterly permanent‐income/life‐cycle models of consumption in fit and predictive accuracy. However, an ‘error‐correction’model (ECM, using the log consumption/income ratio) reconciled both the theories and the evidence, and treated as the DGP, explained the connection between the time‐series and econometric equations. Moreover, the ECM class was shown to have good properties in a pilot Monte Carlo study. While substantively focussed on modelling aggregate consumers’ expenditure, key methodological issues are addressed, including modelling strategies, parameter constancy, collinearity, seasonality, and encompassing (the explanation of other models’ results). Augmented by inflation, a constant model was developed (since known as DHSY), which predicted the first half of the 1970s.
Liquidity and Inflation Effects on Consumers' Expenditure
Authors: Hendry David F. , von Ungern‐Sternberg Thomas
Published: October 2003

An integral correction mechanism (based on liquid assets) related to servomechanistic control theory improved the DHSY specification and explained the role of inflation as measuring the erosion of the real value of nominal assets, leading to the HUS model. Seasonal indicators were re‐introduced. An explicit progressive research strategy for empirical modelling was proposed, sustained by encompassing.
Predictive Failure and Econometric Modelling in Macroeconomics: The Transactions Demand for Money
Authors: Hendry David F.
Published: October 2003

This tests the DHSY approach in another subject‐matter area (money demand) to investigate its ability to produce improved models and to encompass previous findings. ‘Simple‐to‐general’ modelling methods are criticized and contrasted with the outcome achieved by general‐to‐simple, sequentially reducing to parsimonious, constant, and encompassing equations. Contemporaneous conditioning is based on weak exogeneity and constancy is stressed as a model‐selection criterion. A successful test of the selected error‐correction transactions’ demand for money model on new data is reproduced from The Econometric Analysis of Economic Time Series.
AUTOREG: A Computer Program Library for Dynamic Econometric Models With Autoregressive Errors
Authors: Hendry David F. , Srba Frank
Published: October 2003

Keeping econometrics operational with suitable computer programs that implement new methods and approaches is essential. The evolution of AUTOREG follows the methodological developments, from unfriendly, mainframe batch programs focused on optimal estimation to interactive, menu‐driven modelling which facilitates both teaching and research in time‐series econometrics, exploiting powerful graphics (PcGive). The approach always rigorously tested model specifications, then tests were included for mis‐specification, gradually leading to ‘model building’procedures: throughout, Monte Carlo simulation programs evaluated the new methods in finite samples. Four central issues are considered: discovery, namely, finding a suitable model specification; estimation, based on solving the score equations; numerical optimization for maximizing the likelihood function; and statistical analyses of the properties of estimators.
Exogeneity
Authors: Hendry David F. , Engle Robert F. , Richard Jean‐François
Published: October 2003

Exogenous variables play a crucial role in econometrics, yet ‘exogeneity’ is often imprecise. Exogenous connotes ‘being determined outside of (the model under analysis)’, so it cannot be a property of variables per se. Rather, exogeneity is a step in model reduction, concerning when inferences about parameters of interest based on a complete analysis of the joint density function of all the observable variables coincide with inferences based on only the conditional density of one sub‐set of variables given another sub‐set. If there is no loss of information from only analysing the conditional sub‐model, then the conditioning variables are weakly exogenous for its parameters of interest, and the marginal process is irrelevant. To forecast conditionally more than one period ahead also requires Granger non‐causality, leading to the concept of strong exogeneity. To justify conditional policy analyses, which change the marginal model, parameter invariance is required in the conditional model, leading to super exogeneity.