INC’s performance in Gujarat’s reserved constituencies should be a lesson for future planning
Authors: Ghatak Shambhu 
Published: June 2021

The analysis of past trends shows that the vote share of BJP in various assembly elections of Gujarat increased from 1990 onwards and has remained close to around 49 percent since 2002. However, for the first time since 1995 the total number of seats won by BJP in different assembly elections of Gujarat came down below 100 in 2017 (i.e., 99 seats).INC's vote share in various assembly elections of Gujarat went up gradually since 1990 and reached almost 43 percent in 2017. The total number of seats won by INC in different assembly elections of Gujarat has more than doubled from 33 in 1990 to 77 in 2017.The number of seats won as a proportion of seats contested was greater than 60 percent for the BJP in the assembly polls of 1995, 1998, 2002, 2007 and 2012. In fact, BJP's chances of winning a particular seat reached its peak in 2002 (viz. 69.8 percent). On the contrary, the number of seats won as a proportion of seats contested crossed 40 percent for INC (viz. 43.5 percent) for the first time in the assembly polls of 2017.During the past 7 assembly elections since 1990, the total number of seats won by INC in the ST reserved constituencies surpassed the total number of seats won by BJP, except in the years 1995 and 2002. It would be too early to say that BJP's anti-Muslim propaganda and communal agenda is yielding diminishing returns in the ST reserved seats. Why so? It is because the vote share of victorious BJP candidates has risen from 47.9 percent to 53.6 percent between 2012 and 2017 in the ST reserved constituencies. On the contrary, the vote share of victorious INC candidates has declined from 51.5 percent to 50.4 percent between 2012 and 2017. Having said that, it should be added here that INC's pre-poll alliance with BTP helped it to increase its overall number of seats to 17 in 2017 from 16 in 2012 in those constituencies. The total number of seats won by INC during assembly elections in the SC seats was always lesser than the total number of seats won by BJP since 1990. However, during the 2017 assembly polls, BJP (7) was marginally ahead of INC (5) in terms of winning SC reserved seats. The average vote share of both INC's (51.5 percent in 2012; 53.8 percent in 2017) and BJP's (49.9 percent in 2012; 55.3 percent in 2017) victorious candidates went up between 2012 and 2017. If we take into account the victory by the independent candidate Jigneshkumar Natvarlal Mevani in Vadgam, then the overall number of seats won by INC has doubled to 6 in 2017 from 3 in 2012 in the SC constituencies. In the reserved constituencies (SC+ST), the total number of seats won by INC on its sole power has increased from 19 in 2012 to 20 in 2017 and the total number of seats won by BJP fell from 20 to 16 during the same span. On certain parameters, however, the performance of BJP and INC show mixed results. My data analysis shows that the average vote share of a winning candidate of BJP increased in both the SC and ST constituencies between the two timepoints. While the average vote share of a winning candidate from INC increased in SC constituencies, it fell in the ST constituencies. Although the probability of winning by an INC candidate has increased in both SC and ST constituencies between 2012 and 2017, the average victory margin secured by a winning candidate of INC against the nearest rival in the ST constituencies has fallen, shows this analysis. On the contrary, the average victory margin secured by a winner of INC against the nearest rival in SC constituencies has increased between the two timepoints under discussion. The chances of winning by a BJP candidate has decreased in both SC and ST constituencies between 2012 and 2017. However, the average victory margin secured by a victorious BJP candidate against the nearest rival in both ST and SC constituencies has gone up.Due to anti-incumbency factor, both BJP and INC gained same number of seats (3 each) in the ST constituencies in 2017. INC (4) gained a greater number of seats vis-à-vis the BJP (1) due to anti-incumbency factor in the SC constituencies. No female candidate could win a single seat for BJP in the ST constituencies in both 2012 and 2017. Likewise, no female candidate could win a single seat for INC in the SC constituencies in 2012. In 2017, no female candidate from INC contested election in the SC constituencies.