bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The Opportunity Costs of Acting as a Super Power: U.S. Military Strategy in the 1980s
Authors: Goldstein Walter
Published: March 2007

For thirty years (1945-75), the super power roles performed by the United States were based upon its pre-eminent strength in military preparedness and economic wealth. Strategic analysts and political leaders assumed that as the leader of the Western alliance the U.S. would serve as a prime mover in resolving global or regional conflicts, and that its deterrence posture would help stabilize a durable world order.

These assumptions have now been called into serious question. Challenged by the superior economic performance of its allies in the Atlantic and Pacific security zones, and by the OPEC oil cartel in its economic security, the U.S. can no longer exert itself as a formidable super power. Neither can the Soviet Union, since it too, is obstructed by the nationalist challenges posed by its alliance partners.

The ability of the U.S. to restore its former pre-eminence is limited by pressing economic considerations. Faced by an unprecedented threat of inflation and slow economic growth, the U.S. must limit its defense efforts in the years ahead. If it invests too many resources in defense, industrial productivity and the value of the dollar will fall; and its vulnerability to the economic maneuvers of its allies and adversaries will sharply increase. If it should invest unwisely during the 1980s in its military appropriations, the U.S. will find its political leadership position severely undermined.

There are three claimants for military appropriations to prepare for the 1980s: (1) the strategic deterrent forces are to be enlarged and modernized, (2) theatre force levels in Europe are to be increased, and (3) naval deployments are to be extended in the Third World. It is questioned whether any of these increments can be successfully enlarged and if there will be a gain in political power by actually doing so. Even if $1,000 billion should be spent to improve U.S. military capabilities in the next few years, as is now planned, the U.S. will not be able to fulfill the super power responsibilities that it shouldered in the opening rounds of the Cold War.

As the leading military force in world affairs, the U.S. recognizes that it must calculate economic and political opportunity costs that can only inhibit its strategic ambitions. It is evident that a new formula must be found, both in theoretical and empirical terms, to revise the expectations of what super powers can hope to do in the next round of the Cold War.

Eleven Figures presenting financial and defense data accompany the analysis. The last reveals that between 1958 and 1978 U.S. military expenditures fell from 46 to 25 percent of the world outlay for defense appropriations. This trend cannot be quickly or decisively reversed.
Crisis and Continuity in the International System
Authors: Phillips Warren R. , Ensign Margee M.
Published: March 2007

What are the determinants of change within a society? Are we, as social scientists, able to forecast the direction a society will take? Is the future predetermined or unpredictable? These are some of the important questions that have been raised by social scientists and philosophers for many years. In order to fully understand and appreciate different approaches and perspectives on these questions, the works of two authors have been chosen for review: Immanuel Wallerstein and Stephen Rousseas. Their particular perspectives on the future of capitalism are analyzed and the implications of their different conclusions are discussed.
Presidential Directive (P.D.) 59
Authors: Leitenberg Milton
Published: March 2007

Nuclear weapons have been available to the United States since 1945, and to the USSR since 1949. Particularly in the years since 1960 the academic and analytical journal literature has contained literally many hundreds of papers dealing with the subjects of nuclear 'deterrence', 'mutual assured destruction', etc. For the most part, these papers have demonstrated a pervasive and thorough ignorance of the actual state of planning regarding the potential use of these weapons. If anything, that segment of the research community most interested in arms control has shown itself to be particularly poorly informed, and most resistant to giving up its misconceptions. These critics sought the maintenance of a fictional status quo. Ironically critics on the 'right' who have consistently sought increased strategic nuclear war-fighting policies have falsely portrayed the official policies in exactly the same way so as to press for changes.

The following paper is designed to provide official information regarding US nuclear weapon targeting in the hope of redressing this pervasive misunderstanding. The paper can only deal with the nuclear targeting policy of the United States. The paper is intended to do no more than to provide this information, in the hope of setting the record straight.

It demonstrates that at least since 1960, US nuclear weapon targeting has always been primarily counter-military — 'counterforce' — and not directed in the first instance against the cities of the USSR. These military targets have always and primarily been the nuclear weapon systems of the USSR, including hardened missile silos as these were developed by the USSR.
Foreign Exchange Costs of the Indian Military 1950 - 1972
Authors: Terhal Peter
Published: March 2007

From the day of Independence onwards, India has tried to find shifting compromises between three (partially) conflicting policy goals: (1) reducing foreign political dependence through non-alignment; (2) building up a strong defense apparatus; (3) minimizing the defense claim upon foreign exchange earnings in order to further economic growth.

This article analyses the degree of success with respect to the third goal for the period 1950 - 1972. It presents quantitative findings about the burden of defense on the Indian balance of payments for the period 1950 - 1972. This burden is expressed in the estimated value of foreign exchange (US dollars of 1972) used for military purposes.

Three components are distringuished: direct military imports (ready made military hardware); imports for defense industries; imports for civil industries which provide goods and services to the military sector. For each component and each year, dollar estimates are provided, based on whatever evidence could be found in published sources. Main sources used are those of Stockholm Internatio nal Peace Research Institute, and US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency. As India during the second halve of the sixties imported much military hardware from Communist countries under favourable credit arrangements, a method had to be found for converting these credits into their dollar-equivalent.

The two-fold strategy of India for reducing the foreign exchange burden of an increased defense effort - especially after the traumatic military experience of the war with China in 1962 - was (1) to build up domestic defense industries; (2) in spite of non-alignment to accept increasing amounts of military aid.

The second policy did have temporary positive effects during the first half of the sixties, but it appears that both policies were structurally inadequate to offer permanent relief to the Indian balance of payments. In the late sixties, the military claim on foreign exchange was nearly half the value of Indian civil imports of machinery and equipment.
Disengagement Zones: A Step Towards Meaningful Defence?
Authors: Berg Per , Lodgaard Sverre
Published: March 2007

To raise the nuclear threshold in Europe, several suggestions have been made to remove battlefield nuclear weapons a certain distance east and west of the dividing line in Central Europe. Concurrent conventional arrangements are envisaged: linking the withdrawal of nuclear weapons to an agreement on mutual (balanced) force reductions (M(B)FR); unilateral action to compensate for Western conventional inferiority, as is often argued in the West; or withdrawing major conventional weapons suited for offensive uses from the zone, as is argued in this paper.

A combined nuclear and conventional disengagement may not only raise the nuclear threshold but also, at the same time, enhance the effectiveness of conventional defence. Possible restrictions are discussed in some detail, and related to new concepts of conventional defence which have attracted increasing attention and support in recent years: the concept of territorial defence, primarily developed in the Federal Republic and in Austria under the common designation of "Raumverteidigung", and the Airland concept, epitomi zed in a new Field Manual for the US Army.
Review Essay: The International Network of Terrorism
Authors: Stohl Michael
Published: March 2007

Claire Sterling's The Terror Network and Edward Herman's The Real Terror Network are reviewed and reactions to the authors' research and subject matter in the scholarly and popular press compared. It is ar gued that Sterling's work suffers from sloppy argument and questionable evidence and a lack of apprecia tion of the interaction between politics and history. Herman's work, an avowedly polemical piece, deserves far more attention that it has thus far received despite some shortcomings in the analysis which at times seem to confuse structural arguments with conspiracy. Both works point to the need to further explore the role of the state in the terror process.
Comparative Perspectives on Militarization, Repression and Social Welfare
Authors: Wolpin Miles D.
Published: March 2007

The focus of this article is upon the costs of high military burdens and militarization. While the primary concern is with the Third World, this analysis also considers costs to advanced capitalist as well as state socialist systems. The work synthesizes findings by more than three dozen researchers, many of whom have published comparative or case studies of substitution effects of military expenditures in socio-economic areas. Particular attention is focused upon damage to the American socio-economic order by high militarization since the early 1960's. In both the North as well as the South, the costs are most obvious in terms of specific tradeoffs when military burdens are high or rapidly increasing. They are occasionally pronounced in such welfare areas as health and particularly education. More frequently, they appear in terms of diminished economic growth rates, unemployment, reduced exports and inflation. In developing nations welfare is less adversely affected in civilian, more industrialized, economically dynamic, heavily aided, state capitalist and especially socialist oriented regimes. Military dominant systems tend to be the most repressive and exhibit the heaviest military burdens. In general, however, systems in both the North and the South vary in how they absorb such tradeoffs as appear. Emphasis is placed upon East-West competitive intervention and commercial gain as a source of both militarization and accelerating militarism in the South.
The Tangibility of Issues and Global Conflict: A Test of Rosenau's Issue Area Typology
Authors: Vasquez John A.
Published: March 2007

While the concept of issue area in foreign policy has received wide theoretical attention, there has been little empirical research on it. This analysis tests five propositions derived from Rosenau's pre-theory in order to assess the role of issues in foreign policy cooperation-conflict. The findings show that the tangibility of issues is a potent variable in analyzing cooperation-conflict when combined with other intervening variables such as the number of actors, the costliness of employed resources, the frequency of contention, persistence, and linkages to other issues. The findings are then used to reformulate Rosenau's analysis into five new propositions which stipulate the conditions under which the tangibility of issues will lead to cooperation-conflict and the kinds of behavior associated with each of Rosenau's four issue areas.
Small but not Beautiful
Authors: Agrell Wilhelm
Published: March 2007

Alternative military defence can be regarded both as a concept for a general change in military structures and as a possible strategy for small and medium-size countries. The general concept is vague and far away from any political implementation. Several models of alternative military defence have been discussed for small and medium-size countries, mainly in Europe. Of these, a high technology territorial defence appears to offer an optimal compromise between a defensive deterrence and the abandonment of elements that could be regarded as provocative. The article investigates the possibilities to implement a high-technology defence, with the operational task to absorb an attack by offensive forces of a super-power. The basic principles for such a defence must be to avoid the main capacity of these forces, their weapon systems, intelligence systems and electronic warfare systems. PGM technology has created some opportunities for this model, but also for new offensive systems. A continuous development of systems adapted to territorial defence is therefore a necessity. The idea of small independent units is hardly feasible in this context. The organization of defence must be dispersed and decentralized but still coordinated in very deep defensive zones. The model therefore can only be employed by a well-trained and professionally led citizen army.
Deficiencies of Beginning Teachers
Authors: Stout John B.
Published: March 2007

From many quarters today come criti cisms of the professional preparation of teachers. "Give us a well-educated per son, a liberal arts graduate," say these critics, "and the 'how' of teaching can and will be learned on the job." Mr. Stout, Director of Training, Northwestern State College, Alva, Oklahoma, who also serves as Chairman of the Oklahoma Commission on Teacher Education and Certification, reports the meaningful re sults of an effort to identify some of the vital factors which should be included in the "how" part of preservice teacher edu cation. Readily admitting that they are not now adequately accomplished in on going professional preparation programs, we may well ask the critics of preservice professional preparation to indicate how the liberal arts graduate can meet these candid evaluations of public school ad ministrators.
The UK Economy
Authors: Young Garry
Published: March 2007

After last year's very modest slowdown in growth, the UK economy now appears to be on the brink of a period of much more rapid expansion. Even those sectors, such as manufacturing and construction, which had been stagnating, have picked up speed since the middle of last year and there are signs that all sectors of the economy will grow strongly this year.
Should the UK Join Emu?
Authors: Artis Michael
Published: March 2007

This article considers the economic case for UK membership of EMU. Traditional optimum currency area (OCA) analysis provides only a weak case for membership: the UK is located among the periphery and not in the core. Considerations of the possible costs of isolation (the risks of trade discrimination and the dangers of a volatile currency) together with some pertinent qualifications of OCA analysis (the possible endogeneity of the OCA criteria) serve to strengthen the case for joining. Whilst it is not overwhelming, the final verdict is positive.
The Fall in Britain's Invisible Earnings
Authors: Gilbert R. S.
Published: March 2007

Britain's visible deficit in her balance of payments—that is, her deficit on imports and exports of goods—is likely to be a good deal worse this year than it was last: probably over £100 million bigger. But, even so, it is unlikely to be any larger than in the first half of the nineteen-fifties. This deterioration in visible trade would be much less disturbing if it were not for the fact that the ‘invisible’ balance has also been getting worse.
Labour Productivity in 1980: an International Comparison
Authors: Roy A.D.
Published: March 2007

Work on a project examining recent trends in UK labour productivity is being carried out at NIESR for HM Treasury. It has always been envisaged that one facet of this work should involve an attempt to learn from the experience of other industrial countries. Given the interest aroused a few years ago by the publication in the Review of D. T. Jones's article on comparative labour productivity, the updating of some of his work seemed to be an appropriate way both of adding an international dimension to the present project and also of providing continuity of interest with earlier NIESR work in the same general field.
The Labour Market
Authors: Henry S.G.B. , Wren-Lewis S.
Published: March 2007

This paper summarises research on the labour market done over the past two years at the National Institute. It incorporates research into the determinants of employment—including the role of forward-looking behaviour—wage inflation and real wage models, and comments on some policy issues which have arisen in the past five years or so. The research was not aimed at producing a single approach to labour market behaviour, but touched on several separate topics. In part the present paper reflects this relative heterogeneity, although we will try to emphasise common themes where these are relevant.
Chapter II. The World Economy
Authors: Wren-Lewis Simon , Eastwood Fiona
Published: March 2007

Beginning with this Review, the World Economy chapter contains a number of changes in format and content. The first half of the chapter presents the main forecast, which for the first time is produced with the aid of a quarterly econometric model, GEM. The second half of the chapter will be devoted to one or more topical issues concerning the world economic outlook, using analysis based on econometric evidence or model simulations. In this Review we look at the prospects for the US current balance. An appendix briefly outlines the structure of GEM.
Recession and Recovery in Britain: the 1930s and the 1980s
Authors: Gregg P.A. , Worswick G.D.N.
Published: March 2007

A few years ago, comparisons were being made between the recession of the early 1980s in Britain and that of 50 years earlier, in the 1930s. The latter was followed by a recovery in output which lasted over five years. A new recession appeared in 1938, but it was swiftly overtaken by growing rearmament and the outbreak of war. On this occasion, the recovery of output has already run for six years and, though there may well be more to come, we now have sufficient figures to make a worthwhile comparison of recession and recovery in the two periods. It is the strong similarity in the strength and depth of the two recessions which makes the comparison of the subsequent recoveries a useful measure of the success of recent economic performance. In terms of annual data 1929 and 1979 were the peaks of the preceding expansion, and we take advantage of the coincidence of the last digit. Those variables expressed in index number form are taken as 100 in the years 1925 and 1975, and we characterise the periods 1925-37 and 1975-87 as Then and Now. Data for Then are taken mainly from Feinstein (1972) and for Now from Economic Trends and other current official sources.
Output Gaps. Some evidence from the UK, France and Germany
Authors: Barrell Ray , Sefton James
Published: March 2007

As the UK economy recovers from the recent recession, there is again widespread concern at the re-emergence of the spectre of inflation. Recent increases in base rates were primarily aimed at reassuring markets that inflation will be controlled. It is therefore of use to be able to calculate whether or not inflationary pressures are liable to re-emerge in the near future. Our macroeconomic, model based, forecast on page 8 of this Review is one way that this could be done. This note investigates a number of other approaches.
Lessons from America
Authors: Britton Andrew
Published: March 2007

In addition to our coverage of the United States as part of the world economy programme, four recent or current projects at the Institute involve comparisons between Britain and America. The main focus is on labour market institutions, productivity, training and education. This note draws on this work, and also on a recent visit to Washington to meet both policy makers and independent economists. It has benefited from discussion with the editorial board, but consists nevertheless of my own personal reflections.
The World Economy
Authors: Barrell Ray , Pain Nigel , Morgan Julian
Published: March 2007

The early part of 1995 saw considerable turbulence in the foreign exchange markets, resulting in significant currency realignments. Relative exchange-rate patterns have not changed very much in the last three months, and the effects of the real exchange-rate realignment are beginning to be felt, with growth slowing in those countries whose currencies appreciated, and inflationary pressures building up in some of the countries that depreciated. In addition to the destabilising effects of the realignment, signs are beginning to emerge that growth is slowing of its own accord throughout the OECD, particularly in North America. The recovery also appears to have become somewhat more hesitant than we had anticipated in Germany and the UK, although other European countries are continuing to expand at above trend rates. The fragility of the Japanese financial system has been clear for some time, but the potential scale of bad debts is only now becoming known, and this appears to be having a deleterious effect on both financial and consumer confidence.
Simulation Modeling as a Tool to Evaluate Alternative Configurations of Clinical Laboratories
Authors: Berchtold Günter , Blaschke Helga , Hanssmann Friedrich , Liebl Franz , Braun Siegmund Lorenz , Vogt Wolfgang , Eckert Martin , Hoffmann Georg , Klose Sigmar
Published: March 2007

Due to manifold and complex interactions in a clinical laboratory, it is difficult to assess how organizational changes or new equipment may affect overall performance. We present a simulation system that is able to model arbitrary configurations of clinical laboratories. Drawing on the experience of a fixed configuration model we have developed a flexible simulation model.

This model has been validated by several laboratories of different size and organizational structure.

Using the model the laboratory management is able to judge whether the additional cost for new equipment may be justified by better performance or whether performance can be maintained when measures of cost-cutting are taken.
Ascertaining Important Features For Industrial Simulation Environments
Authors: Mackulak Gerald T. , Cochran Jeffery K. , Savory Paul A.
Published: March 2007

Recent years have witnessed the development and commercial release of multiple simulation tools, environments, and intelligent simulators. Each release seems to contain additional advanced features designed to simplify simulation use and increase the productivity of model builders. But to date, no one has addressed feature definition from the viewpoint of a simulation practitioner. This paper discusses our efforts to identify and prioritize simulation features deemed most desirable from the practitioner viewpoint. A series of three questionnaires was developed and administered to a group of qualified simulation practitioners. With results that are of interest to simulation users, researchers, and simulation software developers, the survey responses reveal not only what practitioners feel are the most important features of presently available commercial packages, but also identify important areas for future development.
Design and Performance Evaluation of Picture Archival and Communication Systems
Authors: Kalyoncu Hakan , Sankur Bülent
Published: March 2007

A simulation method for performance estimation and dimensioning a medical picture archival and communications system (PACS) is introduced. The introduced method makes use of a source layer model to simulate the behavior of a typical PACS user and server. As a case study for the application of the proposed methodology, the problem of dimensioning the PACS of a radiology department with a multitude of users and modalities is considered. Furthermore, the effect of additional database servers on the system performance is considered. Results are presented for two cases: i) for the system with radiologists, modalities, and database server(s); ii.) with modality traffic postponed to off hours, i.e., for the system with database server(s) and radiologists onl y.
Comparison of Neural Network Algorithms for Face Recognition
Authors: Micheli-Tzanakou E. , Uyeda E. , Ray R. , Sharma A. , Ramanujan R. , Dong J.
Published: March 2007

In the last couple of decades, engineers, neuroscientists and psychologists have turned their attention to face recognition by humans and computer vision systems. Images of different complexities have been tested with a variety of methods. The goals of each research vary, as vary the applications. We present a neural method of recognizing faces using features obtained from compression of these faces with different methods. The extracted fea ti tres are used as inputs to a feedforward neural network. The neural network is trained with backpropagation and ALOPEX. Different types of featicre extraction are used and the results of training and testing for recognition based on the above mentioned methods are compared. ALOPEX converges much faster than backpropagation to a global maximum. Testing in both methods is as good as the learning of the network.
Output Analysis Capabilities of Simulation Software
Authors: Banks Jerry
Published: March 2007

Although most simulation practitioners are aware that output analysis is of extreme importance in a discrete-event system simulation, many are not versed in the process for conducting that analysis. Hence, it is not unusual that a simulation

practitioner will conduct just one replication of the simulation, and provide the resulting measure-of-performance as the estimated response. Point estimates like this can be very dangerous, since they represent but one of many possible values of an experiment when random variation is present. It is much more appropriate to provide a statistical confidence interval, as a minimal form of output analysis.

This article uses an example that describes a context in which variation in output performance measures can occur. The actual output from a simulation of that example system is used to develop confidence intervals.

The output features of simulation software are briefly described. This is followed by a listing of these same output features and their availability on five simulation software products.

The intention of the article is to draw attention to simulation output analysis and to show that support for it is readily available in simulation software. It is not the intention of the article to compare the five products, or to indicate that other simulation software products do or do not have the same or similar features.
Simulation in the Service of Society
Authors: McLeod John , McLeod Suzette , Ford Andy
Published: March 2007

This month, in line with our policy of sometimes publishing information on work planned, or in progress, rather than "carved in stone," we present the first part of QUEST, an article which we received from Dave Biggs of SDRI, University of British Columbia. Note that this project is one that is still in the development stage, and the authors invite suggestions and comments from readers. It is believed that such feedback can be more helpful now than later.

The second half of the writeup is scheduled to appear in the August issue of this column.
A real-time computer application for the prediction of fire spread across the Australian landscape
Authors: Coleman J.R. , Sullivan A.L.
Published: March 2007

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) Forestry and Forest Products has developed a PC-based fire spread prediction application that can be used by fire control officers as an aid in strategic planning and resource allocation. This computer application, called Siro Fire, is a DOS protected mode application that incorporates several fire spread models that can be applied to the two major fuel types found in Australia-grass and forest. It uses GIS-derived geographic maps and digital elevation models to calculate the probable spread of a fire across the landscape and displays the results on a graphical representation of the map of the area of concern. The application is being used in the South Australian Country Fire Service as both an operational and training tool. This paper outlines the evolution of previous fire spread simulation software, the development of SiroFire and how SiroFire carries out fire spread simulations using existing fire spread prediction algorithms.
Simulation model of the vocal tract filter for speech synthesis
Authors: Al-Akaidi Marwan M.
Published: March 2007

This paper addresses the techniques used to produce a relatively low bit rate for speech coding. The technique initially explored in this work is the linear predictive coder, the most popular method referenced to date. This technique uses algorthims that describe the speech production process during voice and unvoiced sounds. The linear predictive coder attempts to approximate the vocal tract filter over a short period of time. The model, coupled with a specific excitation, can be used for speech synthesis.
An Object-Oriented Visual Model-Building and Simulation System for FMS Control
Authors: Kamigaki Tamotsu , Nakamura Nobuto
Published: March 2007

This paper illustrates the design philosophy of a Visual Model-building and Simulation System (VMSS) focused on the Automated Guided Vehicle (AGV) operational control and symbolizes the complexity in Flexible Manufacturing System (FMS) control. Building a high fidelity simulation model necessarily consumes a considerable amount of time and labor even though the program is written in a simulation language like GPSS, SLAM, and so on. This might limit its applicability to the various simulation models, and the execution of various model patterns. In this paper, we develop a VMSS to build a high fidelity simulation model in less time and with less labor. For the implementation of this VMSS, we integrate two main concepts: Visual Interactive Modelling (VIM) and Visual Interactive Simulation (VIS), and suggest the introduction of three additional concepts: Object-Oriented Data Structure, Visual Designing, and Intelligent Assistant.
A Distributed Search and Simulation Method for Job Flow Scheduling
Authors: Jernigan S.R. , Ramaswamy S. , Barber K.S.
Published: March 2007

Simulation serves as an effective decision support tool in flexible manufacturing systems for understanding and analyzing the effect of changes to the system environment. Due to the variety of situations that have to be evaluated, a generative scheduler for such a system must be more flexible than its realistic equal while still producing detailed and accurate schedules. This research presents a possible solution to this problem and is intended for use in a distributed, reactive, virtual environment. The solution exploits the advantages gained by using multiple processes in a distributed environment to create, simulate, and evaluate possible schedules. The system is designed on the premise that a distributed parallel search and simulation of competing schedules with accompanying heuristics and subgoaling will greatly reduce the search space and control the state space explosion. Moreover, the need for cycle and deadlock detection is eliminated, thereby decreasing the overall complexity and computational requirements.
Review of Extend™ Performance in Modeling a Nuclear Fuel Transfer Activity
Authors: Houshyar Azim
Published: March 2007

Simulation is emerging as a general purpose planning, modeling, and problem-solving tool for a wide range of manufacturing processes. Availability of different simulation software has made it easier for engineers and managers to approach complex problems with a tool that allows them to evaluate "what if" scenarios. Extend™ is one of the newer simulation software packages on the market that has some unique features that may prove beneficial in modeling continuous as well as discrete-event problems. It is a powerful tool for decision-support systems, and provides insight into complex manufacturing and business problems. In this paper, a brief description of a fairly complex nuclear fuel transfer project and the features of Extend in modeling complex problems are discussed.
Discrete Event Simulation of Fuel Transfer Strategies for Defueling a Nuclear Reactor
Authors: Garcia Humberto E. , Houshyar Azim
Published: March 2007

Fuel handling and condition ing activities for the decommissioning of the Experimental Breeder Reactor Il are being performed at Argonne National Laboratory. Discrete event simulation and optimization techniques are being investigated to plan, supervise and perform these activities in such a way that productivity can be improved. The idea is to characterize this operation as a collec tion of interconnected serving cells, and then apply operational research tech niques to identify appropriate planning schedules for the given scenarios. This paper describes an application of discrete event simulation to evaluate fuel transfer strategies and identify optimal solutions among distributed resources.
A Simulation Model for Multi-Product Inventory Control Management
Authors: Badri Masood A.
Published: March 2007

A simulation based-decision support system for multi-product inventory control management is developed. The system permits management to obtain an inventory system-wide view of the effect of changes in decision variables on the performance measures of a furniture manufacturing firm. The simulation model considers the effect of variations in demand, re-order point, stock-control level, time between reviews, and lead time. The decision support system generates policy scenarios based on management specifications. The effect of each scenario on system performance is then analysed. A set of search methods is combined with the DSS to aid in the optimisation process. The developed network consists of three basic sub-networks. The first sub-network represents the demand, back- order, and stock components of the system. The second network represents the periodic review process with stock control levels for each product. The third sub-network performs profit and cost calculations under normal circumstances and when lost sales are present.
Le rôle de Ia Conférence internationale de sociologie religieuse
Authors: Labbens Jean
Published: March 2007

Just as christianity has used philosophy as a con ceptual framework for the elaboration of its theology, and as it uses historical science for the study of its own past, in the same way christians in our own day are applying themselves to the study of the sociology of religious phenomena.

Some work in the purely scientific domain, others seek to apply the results of research in action. It is how ever very important to respect the rules of sociological science, and to avoid trying to arrive over-hastily at practical conclusions.
The sociology of religion and socio-reIigious research in the NetherIands
Authors: Goddijn Walter
Published: March 2007

L'article donne un aperçu de l'ensemble des études socio-religieuses entreprises aux Pays-Bas. Du point de vue religieux, le pays peut se diviser en diverses régions suffisamment limitées pour faciliter les recher ches : le sud : à population catholique — les régions à religions mixtes — les régions de diaspora. De plus il est peu de pays où les Eglises èt les religions ont une telle influence sur la société et sa structure. L'auteur donne ensuite les grandes lignes des études réalisées : recherches de sociographie, de statistiques et de planning. Certaines recherches sont également entreprises pour déterminer d'une part les relations entre les groupes catholiques et protestants et d'autre part les effets que peut avoir la religion sur les diffé rents secteurs de la société. Certaines études théori ques ont été centrées sur la structure et les fonctions de la paroisse. Une importante bibliographie indique les ouvrages qui ont été réalisés dans ces différents domaines.
Some aspects of the religious crisis of Islam in West Pakistan
Authors: Camps Arnulf
Published: March 2007

L'Islam continue toujours de tendre à la formation d'une communauté religieuse et politique. Ceci est la raison profonde de la naissance du Pakistan en 1947. Il apparut bientôt qu'il était très difficile de réaliser cet idéal. Cette constatation conduisit à une certaine frustration et à la révolution de 1958. L'auteur exa mine ici trois aspects de la crise religieuse, qui sont à la base de cet échec : le grand nombre de sectes dans le Pakistan de I'Ouest, une nette dominance de la religion populaire et l'absence d'une réponse d'ensem ble à la question de savoir comment l'Islam devrait s'adapter aux temps modernes. Ce sont ces facteurs qui ont empêché jusqu'à present que le Pakistan ne de vienne réellement un état islamique. Pour terminer, l'auteur mentionne quelques mesures qui ont été prises par le gouvernement révolutionnaire actuel, dans le but de faire face à la crise religieuse.
Merit An investigation of the motivational qualities of the Buddhist concept of merit in Thailand
Authors: Mulder J.A.N.
Published: March 2007

La question centrale étudiée dans cet article est celle de savoir si la motivation religieuse peut être efficacement manipulée pour opérer un changement social et économique en Thaïlande. C'est dans ce but qu'on examine les conséquences sur le comportement du concept de mérite, principe opérationnel du Bouddhisme Thaï.

Au point de vue religieux, le concept de mérite pourra le mieux être saisi dans le contexte de la loi Hindoue-Bouddhiste de 'cause et effet', en ce sens que tout acte est finalement récompensé ou puni, que ce soit dans cette vie ou dans la vie future. Tous les actes réalisés en accord avec l'enseignement bouddhiste, Dharma, sont source de mérite. Le mérite est donc une forme de comportement et un bien abstrait que l'on acquiert par une action adéquate et qui aboutit à un sentiment de bien-être cul turel et psychologique. Mais à côté de ce que pensent les moines, du mérite, il est également important de voir, comment ce mérite est compris par la société et par les individus.

Au niveau national, le mérite et le comportement méritoire sont, de nos jours, souvent interprétés comme conduisant à la construction de la nation en même temps qu'au développement social et économique. Les différences d'opinion sur ce point sont cependant assez considéra bles parmi les leaders religieux et séculiers. C'est ainsi que la plupart des moines interviewés par l'auteur voient leurs rôles comme religieux.

Au niveau du village, tout le mérite que l'on souhaite peut être acquis par les expressions religieuses traditionnelles, individuelles et collectives. Les leaders religieux peuvent contribuer à motiver les activités favorables au développement grâce à leur position de leadership, mais non par le fait qu'ils déclarent que de telles activités sont méritoires.

En ce qui concerne l'économie d'acquisition du mérite, la richesse est un signe du mérite acquis, ainsi qu'une possibilité d'en acquérir davan tage. L'homme riche se trouve donc dans la meilleure position pour acquérir du mérite. Ses investissements le seront à la fois en mérite et en opportunité économique.

La question cruciale qui se pose alors est de savoir si le riche ne va pas investir en opportunités qui accroissent la production per capita, ce qui serait peu en rapport avec le mérite.

Finalement, l'économie d'acquisition du mérite peut fournir à la société Thai un modèle qui souligne l'utilité de l'épargne, de l'investissement et du succès, le mérite devenant une valeur qui potentiellement mène au développement économique.
Trois problèmes pour la sociologie du catholicisme
Authors: Poulat E.
Published: March 2007

This article presents three fundamental problems which should be in cluded in an account of research in sociology of religion. The A. situates these problems within the framework of the French situation and seeks to present them 'not under a theoretical aspect, but from an organizational approach ... such as they arise from a structure'.

The A. first analyses the lack of means by which sociological research is affected. University education allows little place for sociology of religion and even if the situation is better at the level of scientific research, the possibilities remain poor. Catholicism has given rise to many initiatives, but initiatives which provide 'on the whole a nucleus, some good ele ments, forming a dispersed and dissimilar whole'. The difficulty with re gard to formulating an objective of research in this field in operational terms, and the division between fundamental research and applied re search constitute other non negligible handicaps.

The second problem raised by the A. is that of the backwardness of the theoretical approaches. Research in being chiefly orientated towards the systematic and scientific study of religious practice has met with another field of investigation: collective detachment with regard to a religion. The problem of 'dechristianisation' calls for other methods, another theoretical framework which at the moment comes up against a 'stone wall': how to link practice or the lack of practice to this faith of which it is an expression. To come across this wall would suppose, among other things, that we surmount the dichotomy artificially imposed between practice and faith. How explain that existing beliefs so long intact have ceased to constitute the basis of a political order, of a social consensus? Such a kind. of research must make use of instruments other than analysis of behaviour: 'it is indispensable to go as far as (the faithful's) thoughts, beliefs and prayers'; it must lead to the double problem of the 'reliability of the Church' and of the 'credibility of her teaching'.

The third problem posed by the A. concerns the 'reduction' to which the sociology of Catholicism is often subjected in the mind of the clergy. The clergy has played a great part in the realization of sociographical studies, has liked sociology, but perhaps has retained only the technical aspects of it; it has reduced the image of sociology to a procedure of analysis of immediate practical problems. Hence the improvised, rudimentary and even a-scientific character of certain works. In the face of religious sociology the ecclesiastical authorities are unable to situate themselves and ignore what can be expected from it. This impoverished image has a tendency to develop in a 'pastoral sociology', apart from sociology it self, which utilizes its services but refuses its control. The A. warns against the scientific value of such a discipline. The future of religious sociology depends on a definite choice in this field.
Conflit symbolique et conflit social dans le champ religieux
Authors: Lienard Georges , Rousseau André
Published: March 2007

In this article the authors' analyse — starting from an actual case — the repercussions of social conflict, in the religious sphere. The theoretical aspect of the work is aimed at showing how the sphere of religion both translates and transforms the political ideologies of conflicting groups. This leads on to an analysis of religious ideologies to indicate how groups use the sphere of religion according to their political interests.

In the. course of the article the authors' demonstrate how the process of discussion is in fact an occasion of conflict, produced and used according to the positions occupied by the groups concerned both in the fields, of religion and politics. Understanding of these situations requires an analysis of symbolic. systems combined with a sociological theory of power.
Les théories sociologiques concernant la sécularisation - Typologie et critique
Authors: Lauwers Jan
Published: March 2007

In addition to their manifest function of explaining the assumed or real deterioration of organized religion in our society, secularization theories have the latent function of tra cing new forms of religion. For sociologists of religion this seemed to be the way to overcome their identity crisis resulting from this assumed deterioration. Many sociologists of religion have made the secularization theories their new frame of refe rence. This has incited us to critically examine the validity of these theories.

In the first part of this article, three types of secularization theories are discussed, viz. those emphazing pluralization (W. Herberg and M. Yinger), individualization (Th. Luckmann and P. Berger), and rationalization (M. Weber and B. Wil son).

In the second part it is shown that all these theories-are based on two historically developed social theses. First, it is assumed that a distinction can be made between the« essence » of religion and its « accidental » historical form ; secondly, it is assumed that the religious can be separated from the non- religious. Both these assumptions have originated among cer tain positions in a certain historical context, and are still held and defended by certain positions. These secularization theories thus have an ideological basis.

In the third part, the dialectical relationship between ideolo gy and social reality is discussed : secularization not only is an ideology without engagement, it is also a program of social action and as such may become social reality. This dialectic between ideology about. religion and reality of religion holds enough opportunities for research by sociologists of religion so that it is not necessary to promote these ideologies to frames of reference.
Sécularisation et humanisation dans les institutions hospitalières chrétiennes
Authors: Dobbelaere Karel , Lauwers Jan , Ghesquiere-Vaelkensn Mieke
Published: March 2007

In 1972, the Belgian Federation of Catholic Nursing Institutions (V.V.I.-F.I.H.) held a conference concerning the significance of being catholic. In order to prepare this con ference, it called in the help of a few sociologists among other scientists. The first part of this article gives an account of what these sociologists have experienced, planned, and carried out during this preparation. Their main problem was : how is " being catholic" defined by the various positions involved, how is it structured within the institutions, and how can the contextual, socially relative character of these definitions and their structuring be demonstrated ? The second part of this article then summarizes how the management, according to the investigation, defines the catholic character of its hospitals and how it is structured within these in stitutions. The third part elaborates the hypothesis that in this definition and structuring of catholicity, a secularization thesis functions with respect to the nursing institutions, and a few positions opposing the realization of this secularization thesis are indicated. In this opposition being catholic is considered primarily as a humanization program. The fourth part gives a survey of all kinds of ways in which this humanization program is expressed by various positions. Hypothetically it is stated that the humanization thesis is held chiefly by experts, parts of the nursing staff, and consumers, while the secularization thesis is supported chiefly by the management and the medical staff.