bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The impact of climate change on fire danger over the contiguous United States
Authors: Madrazo Maria Klariza , Lee Huikyo , Khodayari Arezoo , Wang Weile , Park Taejin , Raymond Colin
Published: February 2023

Recent extreme heat events, especially those that have occurred in the Western United States (WUS), are fueling wildfires and funneling smoke at an unprecedented level, impacting air/water quality and leading to an increase in respiratory hospitalizations. Under greenhouse warming, extreme weather conditions that favor wildfire ignition are expected to occur more frequently over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Therefore, predicting wildfire danger under a changing climate is essential in managing future wildfires and protecting the welfare of people and the environment. In response to mitigating wildfire risks, the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) was developed to provide a numeric rating representing the intensity of a spreading fire. In this work, we utilized fine-scale (0.25° x 0.25°) daily meteorological inputs from thirty-five general circulation models in NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (NEX-GDDP-CMIP6) data to calculate the FWI. Using the daily maximum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and precipitation from NEX-GDDP-CMIP6, we calculated the FWI of historical and future simulations from the periods of 1950 to 2100 under different emission scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2-4.5 and 5-8.5). We have analyzed the FWI for the GISS-E2-1-G model, which indicates a 2-3% increase per decade in future fire danger under both emission-pathway-driven climate scenarios during the dry season in the Southwestern US. We have found that the FWI climatology in the Southwestern US during the Summer presents high to extreme fire danger (> 50) and higher FWI values in the future compared to historical observations. Moreover, we have explored the uncertainties across multiple models using NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 statistically downscaled data and found a significant spread of the FWI across the models for historical observations and future simulations. To correlate the link between the FWI and actual fire occurrence, we will calculate the FWI using reanalysis data (MERRA-2) and validate the FWI with actual fire occurrence data from Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) with a special emphasis on the WUS. While supporting the US NCA and NASA’s Climate Adaptation Service Investigator (CASI), we will also try to contribute FWI to NASA’s FireSense, an initiative to bring an Earth systems approach to improving wildfire and wildland fire management.
Evaluating carbon sequestration of different alternatieve management practices in the Netherlands
Authors: Schepens Jonas , Koopmans Chris
Published: February 2023

Purpose To meet the Paris Agreement targets the Government of the Netherlands aims to sequester 0.14 Mt C per year in clay and sandy soils from 2030 onwards through alternative management practices. Multiple international meta-analyses and modelling studies have been carried out to quantify the soil carbon sequestration potential of alternative management practices. However, the specific impact of such practices for Dutch field conditions have not yet been assessed. In this study, we quantified the potential of a broad range of alternative management practices to sequester carbon in Dutch agricultural clay and sandy soils.  MethodsAlternative management practices included altered crop rotations, non-inversion tillage, use of compost and use of animal manure for arable farming and extending pasture age, maize-grass rotation replacing continuous maize cropping, and non-inversion tillage in maize cultivation for livestock farming. Measurements were performed in existing long-term field experiments (LTE’s) comparing treatments of the alternative practices to the standard practices. For some practices like altered rotations and extending pasture age no LTE’s were available. In those cases the comparison between practices was designed by comparing field plots on farmers’ fields based on history of the field and comparable soil conditions. Soil sampling was carried out at the 0-30 cm and 30-60 cm depth layers between 2018-2020 using a standardized protocol including soil density sampling.  ResultsThe variation in carbon sequestration rates appeared to be higher on sandy soil as compared to clay soil. The most promising management practices on clay soil were compost additions (0.4 t C ha-1 year-1), extending pasture age (1.3 t C ha-1 year-1) and non-inversion tillage in maize cultivation (0.7 t C ha-1 year-1). On sandy soils maize-grass rotation significantly increased soil carbon levels (1.8 t C ha-1 year-1) together with liquid manure applications (0.6 t C ha-1 year-1).ConclusionOur study shows that the potential of alternative management practices under Dutch field conditions to sequester carbon in agricultural soil is largely determined by soil type. In addition, our results show that, based on the investigated management practices, livestock farming has more options to sequester carbon in agricultural soil than arable farming.

 

 
Cadmium as a tracer of volcanism at the Cretaceous-Paleogene boundary
Authors: Sillitoe-Kukas Steffanie , Humayun Munir , Adatte Thierry , Keller Gerta
Published: February 2023

Major volcanic eruptions like the Deccan have long been invoked as causes of global mass extinctions. Deccan volcanism erupted ~ 600,000 km3 over the span of ~ 700 ka contemporaneously with the end-Cretaceous mass extinction. It has been difficult to establish a correlation between eruption size and extinction intensity because the frequency of eruptions and extent of degassing of individual flows is not well constrained. For example, the eruption of the same amount of lava by high frequency, low effusion flows is less likely to result in a mass extinction than by eruption of low frequency, high effusion flows. This is due to volcanic eruptions outgassing climate perturbing gases SO2 and CO2. When in the atmosphere, SO2 and CO2 could lead to a global climatic catastrophe capable of driving the extinction observed in planktic foraminifera that preceded the end-Cretaceous mass extinction by 200 ka. To determine the role Deccan volcanism played on the extinction it is critical to constrain the eruptive and effusive rates of Deccan eruptions. In addition to SO2 and CO2, volcanoes also emit volatile metals, e.g., Cd, Re, Hg, that form aerosols preserved in contemporaneous sediments. Trace metals, such as Cd, accumulate in sediments, where the excess Cd reflects the intensity of volcanic emissions. In such instances, high frequency, low effusion rate eruptions result in low Cd enrichments, whereas low frequency, high effusion rate eruptions result in high Cd enrichments in sediments. To constrain the eruption tempo of the Deccan, we have performed measurements of elemental abundances on the stratigraphically well-preserved KPg section at Elles, Tunisia. In this report, we conducted a high-resolution study of ~ 90 samples covering ~ 20 ka above the KPg boundary to ~ 350 ka below the KPg boundary. Elemental compositions for ~ 50 elements of Elles sediments were obtained by solution ICP-MS. In some samples, particularly sediments from 100 ka period preceding the boundary, Cd enrichments were eight times that of the upper continental crust (UCC). A lack of correlation between Cd and TOC, Zn, P2O5, and Mo below the boundary suggest the Cd enrichments are not from an influx of biogenic detritus nor from organic burial. Above the boundary, normal shale Cd values representing 25 ka are interpreted here to represent the period between the Ambenali and Poladpur phases. Cadmium as a tracer relates foram-based chronology with the intensity of the Deccan eruption.
Open Science: Creating a Nurturing, Inclusive Scientific Future
Authors: Hall Cynthia , Ivey Yvonne , Gentemann Chelle
Published: February 2023

As life on Earth faces an increasing set of challenges - natural disasters, climate and environmental injustices, and food and water insecurities - it is imperative to have more minds, more hearts, more seats at the table to solve today’s and tomorrow’s challenges. Open science is required to respond to such challenges. For NASA, open science is a collaborative culture within the scientific community and the general public that empowers the open sharing of data, information, and knowledge to accelerate scientific and applications-based research and understanding. Open science creates a more nurturing, diverse, inclusive, and equitable science ecosystem. Open Science accelerates science by promoting a collaborative culture by the open sharing of data, information, and knowledge within the scientific community and the wider public. Open science increases participation of historically underrepresented groups by providing more equitable access to data and information. Open Science empowers communities by making data more accessible, usable, and meaningful for all as a public serviceNASA’s Transform to Open Science (TOPS) mission advances the principles of open science, which aims to build trust, understanding, and lead the co-production of knowledge and new discoveries. As we start the Year of Open Science (2023), the TOPS team is developing resources and activities to support and enable user communities as they move towards open science. Join us for an innovative session in which you will: (1) learn more about NASA’s TOPS mission, and (2) mind-map a mosaic in support of a more diverse, inclusive, equitable, and accessible scientific ecosystem. During the session, we want to discuss with attendees their ideas around open science, what role science and accessibility of science data has had on their life and community, and how best to foster a respectful and collaborative environment for future scientists on a global scale.
Integrating satellite measurements into lava flow hazard predictions: a review
Authors: Wright Robert
Published: February 2023

During an effusive eruption a key aim for volcanologists is to predict both the area covered by active lavas as a function of time, and ultimately, when the eruption ends and the hazard associated with the flows subsides. Over the last 50 years, quantitiate methods for foreacasting lava flow length have been developed, some empirical, others deterministic, and the sophistication of these models has increased markedly in recent years with the advent of cost effective distributed computing (i.e. cloud processing) and other technological innovations and advances, such as General Purpose Graphical Processing Units.At its simplest, a lava flow not limited by supply from the vent flows downhill and eventually cools enough that it becomes too stiff to be ‘pulled’ downhill any further, at which point it stops flowing. The more rapidly the lava exists the vent, the greater the distance from the vent lava can extend before this solidication threshold is crossed. Lava flow simulations require information about the effusion rate, as well as the rate at which the lava loses heat to its surroundings, using this information to estimate when the rheological criteria for flow cessation are met. The simulations also need to know something of the underlying topography, so they know which way ‘downhill’ actually is.Lava effusion rate, cooling rate, and (even) the underlying topography all vary in time during an eruption, at all temporal scales. Repeated measurements, across the entire flow, are required to resolve these important parameters, and remote sensing (beit from space or the air) has been shown able to do this, with varying degreees of success.In this presentation, we will review how satellite measurements of lava flows have been used to drive (and validate) simulations of lava flow hazards.
Ionospheric electric fields associated with seismo-ionospheric precursors and ionospheric storms observed by FORMOSAT-5/AIP
Authors: Liu Jann-Yenq , Chang Fu-Yuan , Chen Yuh-Ing , Chao Chi-Kuang
Published: February 2023

The mission of Advanced Ionospheric Probe (AIP) onboard FORMOSAT-5 (F5) satellite is to detect seismo-ionospheric precursors (SIPs) and observe ionospheric weathers.  F5/AIP plasma quantities in nighttime of 22:30 LT (local time) and the total electron content (TEC) of the global ionosphere map (GIM) are used to study SIPs of an M7.3 earthquake in the Iran-Iraq Border area on 12 November as well as two positive storms on 7 and 21-22 November 2017.  The TEC and the F5/AIP ion density/temperature anomalously increase over the epicenter area on 3-4 November (day 9-8 before the earthquake) and on the two storm days.  The anomalous TEC increase frequently appearing specifically in a small area near the epicenter day 9-8 before the earthquake indicates the SIP being observed, while those frequently occurring at worldwide high-latitudes are signatures of the two positive storms.  TEC increase anomalies most frequently appearing in the Iran-Iraq Border area on 21-22 November (day 10-9 before) is coincidently followed by an M6.1 earthquake on 1 December 2017, which again meets the temporal SIP characteristic.  The F5/AIP ion velocity uncovers that the SIPs of the two earthquakes are caused by eastward seismo-generated electric fields, and the two positive storms are due to the prompt penetration electric fields.
Characteristics of upward negative precursor and initial leader development in rocket-triggered positive lightning
Authors: Jiang Rubin , Qie Xiushu , Liu Mingyuan , Zhang Hongbo , Sun Zhuling , Yuan Shanfeng , Chen Ruiling , Ren Yufan , Liu Kun
Published: February 2023

We delved into the upward negative precursors that occur at the wire tip of the rocket during ascent as well as the initial negative leaders, by analyzing comprehensive data of rocket-triggered positive lightning. Our high vertical resolution current detection identified a significant number of weak current pulses in addition to the typical precursors with peak currents of tens of amperes. These weak pulses could occur as isolated events or could be prior the typical-intensity precursors with a lead time of approximately 20 μs. The typical-intensity precursors created visible discharge channels that can be identified using optical means. The development of those clustered precursors featured step-wise channel extensions that were consistent with the initial sustained upward leaders, with an average 2-D speed of around 105 m/s. The temporal and spatial relationship of adjacent precursor-producing channels was analyzed. After the extinction of the previous precursor channel, a new one formed at the apex of the previous channel as the triggering wire tip arrived there. The study confirmed that the precursors were actually un-sustained leader development, which produced initial leader channel segment at the triggering wire tip but eventually extinguished due to the insufficient conditions. The sustained upward negative leader development signified the successful triggering of the lightning. The leader propagated in distinct step-wise manner with average 2-D velocity of 1.85×105 m/s. For a total of 132 steps captured by the highspeed video camera, the step lengths ranged from 0.8 m to 8.7 m, with an average of 3.9 m. During the initial stage of the upward negative stepped leader, there was a notable impulse feature in both the current and electromagnetic field. The equivalent linear charge density of a single step was 118.5 µC/m. The branching of the leader channel typically occurred in connection with the stepping process in two ways. The first involved creating multiple connections between clustering space stems/space leaders and the leader head within a single step. This resulted in a multi-peak current waveform with a peak interval of roughly 2-3 µs (up to 6-7 µs). The second involved reactivating previously extinguished space stems/space leaders and connecting them to the lateral surface of the channel.
A data-driven and process-based system for mountain torrent and debris flow early warning and risk forecasting
Authors: Cui Peng
Published: February 2023

Mountain torrents and debris flows are widely distributed in the mountainous region, threatening the urban development and infrastructure in mountain areas. The adverse effects of these hazards may increase due to the continued socio-economic development and influence of climate change on the frequency and magnitude of the hazards. This lecture introduces an early warning system of mountain hazards based on hazards process simulation and associated risk forecasting. The system identifies the watershed with high susceptibility to mountain hazard occurrences by monitoring the hazard-fostering conditions and real-time meteorological data. Focusing on those watersheds, the formation and movement of the hazards were simulated while different characteristics were captured, such as debris flow scale amplification and flash flood erosion. The risk of the mountain hazards was assessed based on the whole process of disaster formation-movement-deposition/disaster-causing. Compared with traditional early warning systems, which largely rely on rainfall thresholds and expert judgment, this proposed system is fully data-driven and process-based, while little human intervention is required. This system provides more accurate early warning information, and risk forecasting can better support disaster response planning for the government agency. This system is currently under trial in Liangshan Prefecture, Sichuan Province of China. Just in 2022, 15 debris flow and 52 flash flood events were captured and the early warning information was delivered to the residents and government. The accuracy is more than 79% and significantly improved the disaster resilience of the mountainous region.About the Presenter  Prof. CUI Peng has long been engaged in research on the formation mechanism, risk assessment, monitoring and early warning, prevention and control technology of debris flows and other mountain hazards. He has given a strong pulse to several topics of major relevance for disaster risk reduction and management, including (1) deepening the understanding of debris flow formation, scale amplification, and disaster-causing mechanisms; (2) providing rigorous insights concerning the formation and evolution of earthquake-induced hazards and multi-hazard chaining effect; (3) development of multi-scale disaster risk assessment model; (4) building of risk-level-based monitoring and early system to support efficient disaster reduction; and (5) creating the mass control and energy-based disaster mitigation theory and technology. He has published more than 400 papers with over 12000 citations and is the world's most published scholar in the field of debris flow.
Wayang AgoraEO Plugin: The Framework for Scalable EO Workflows
Authors: Pardo Meza Rodrigo , Quiané-Ruiz Jorge-Arnulfo , Demir Begüm , Markl Volker
Published: February 2023

Wayang AgoraEO Plugin: The Framework for Scalable EO Workflows
Currently, Earth Observation (EO) platforms provide datasets, algorithms, and processing capabilities. Nevertheless, each platform proposes its own exclusive habitat to discover, process, and run EO elements. We recently proposed AgoraEO [2], a decentralized, open, and unified ecosystem, where users can find EO elements, compose cross-platform EO pipelines, and execute them efficiently. With this ambition of supporting cross-platform federated analytics, Agora EO relies on Apache Wayang [1] as its main analytical processing platform. Within AgoraEO, we are developing and enabling Apache Wayang with EO features, exposing the internals of BigEarthNet [2] to the Earth Observation community. Here we present our Wayang AgoraEO plugin that follows the BigEarthNet workflow to achieve all its benefits in a scalable and parameterizable (reusable) way. The Wayang AgoraEO plugin empowers users to create EO workflows, using any EO platform in a simple way: using operators and an intuitive API that follows the behaviors of the EO platforms it exploits. The execution of sub-tasks is controlled but isolated in any required data processing system in tandem with the rest of the platform. In addition, one can fetch datasets from several independent sources. By design, Apache Wayang works as a declarative framework for ML: Users specify ML tasks at a high level, using the most convenient API to write a workflow (Java-Scala, Python, and Postgres are supported). Wayang then models an ML task as a mathematical optimization problem and uses its gradient descent-based optimizer to invoke the appropriate physical algorithms and system configurations to execute a given ML task. Therefore, decoupling user specification of ML tasks from its execution. We believe the Wayang AgoraEO plugin can be a game changer in the tedious task of implementing and deploying EO workflows within EO platforms today: It makes it easy to reuse resources and share them. Likewise, it is an easily extensible solution to include new operators that can include new EO platforms and tasks. As a result, this solution can be a great leap in the democratization of EO technologies, contributing to their integration, scalability, and access to high-performance computing.
References
[1] S. Kruse, Z. Kaoudi, J. -A. Quiane-Ruiz, S. Chawla, F. Naumann and B. Contreras-Rojas, "Optimizing Cross-Platform Data Movement," IEEE 35th International Conference on Data Engineering, 2019, pp. 1642-1645.
[2] A. Wall, B. Deiseroth, E. Tzirita Zacharatou, J-A, Quiané-Ruiz, B. Demir, V. Markl, "AGORA-EO: A Unified Ecosystem for Earth Observation - A Vision For Boosting EO Data Literacy," Big Data from Space Conference, 2021.
Response of ecological restoration to rainfall in arid zones
Authors: Cheng Yiben , Bai Xuying , Ma Xiaoxu , Xin Zhiming , Feng Wei , Yang Wenbin , Zhou Jinxin
Published: February 2023

Rainfall in arid and semi-arid areas converts faster in the local SPAC system. Deluge in drylands may be an important source of groundwater recharge. We have been conducting a thirty-year observational in the Mu Us sandy land at the northwest China, we use remote sensing imagery to observe changes in the water body area and in situ observations to monitor rainfall infiltration. A total of 30 periods of Landsat remote sensing images were processed using the Google Earth platform to obtain the characteristics of surface water body changes. The results show that there are strong seasonal characteristics in the changes of water bodies area in the Mu Us sandy land, with two peaks in April and August, and the inter-monthly area increases of 44.867 km2 (28.60%) and 47.832 km2 (28.31%) respectively. 379.770 km2 to 275.492 km2, a total reduction of 104.278 km2 (27.46%). Deep soil as a percentage of annual precipitation of woodland, shrubland, grassland, farmland and bare land were 2.88%, 17.36%, 3.64%, 1.21% and 44.30%, respectively. The change in the water body area in the Mu Us sandy land is mainly influenced by three factors, rainfall, vegetation coverage, and human activities, with a correlation coefficient of 0.57 (α=0.05) between rainfall and water body area. The correlation coefficients were 0.79, 0.79 and 0.86 (α=0.05) for the years 1991-1997, 1998-2005 and 2006-2017, respectively; vegetation coverage and water body area were negatively correlated overall in 30 years. The correlation coefficient was 0.57 (α=0.05), indicating that human activities in the Mu Us sandy land have a greater impact and human activities in the sands should be reduced in order to manage the sands.
Marine cloud brightening, could it mitigate coral bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef?
Authors: Harrison Daniel
Published: February 2023

For over 30 years scientists and engineers have theoretically pondered whether it was possible to mitigate global warming by atomising seawater over the ocean in a bid to favourably manipulate aerosol-cloud-radiation processes. Given the current plight of the coral ecosystem of the Great Barrier Reef, marine cloud brightening is under considereation as a regional strategy to reduce environmental stress on coral reefs during marine heatwaves. Atmospheric, biogeochemical and ecological modelling suggest that the potential exists to reduce light and thermal stress during marine heatwaves causing coral bleaching. Results from recent field campaigns, the first to empirically test the concept of marine cloud brightening, support the foundational assumptions. From its inception the research program has involved consultation and participation of indigenous traditional custodians of the reef and has proceeded within the regulatory oversight of one of the world’s most actively managed marine estates. This talk will give an overview of the Australian research program including the scientific basis which underpins it and a summary of the most recent results and future directions.
Natura 2000 areas under climate change: Effects of tree species distribution shifts
Authors: Reichmuth Anne , Kühn Ingolf , Rakovec Oldrich , Boeing Friedrich , Müller Sebastian , Samaniego Luis , Doktor Daniel
Published: February 2023

The climate crisis leads to a change in forest tree species distributions, favouring most likely heat and drought tolerant species. As a consequence, many forest sites across Europe will become unsuitable for drought sensitive species. The combination of climate change and conservation goals of Natura2000 forest habitat types will lead to severe conflicts in conservation and forestry. The concept of “no deterioration” in article 6 of the Habitats Directive supports a static conservation of the prevalent flora and fauna. In those areas forestry is oriented towards conservation of natural forest habitat types. Especially areas with reduced silvicultural activities or strict silvicultural requirements, such as Natura 2000 sites, are prone to a long forest conversion process towards more suitable tree species. As forestry is based on long-term life cycles, this development will impact forest condition, forest cover, silviculture and conservation negatively. The Natura2000 legislation is under pressure.This study aims at analysing (1) the changes of future tree species ranges in Europe, (2) how severe changes will impact current natural forest habitat types of Natura 2000 sites and (3) which new tree species might be present in future climate scenarios. We selected a combination of generalised additive models, generalised linear models and boosted regression trees for the modelling process. As model input serve four preselected bio-climatic variables from a total of 26 bio-climatic variables, derived from EURO-CORDEX CMIP5 climate simulations for 1971-2098 for IPCC’s representative concentration pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. JRC soil characteristics and JRC European tree species data serve as additional input variables. Potential tree species ranges with 1km spatial resolution as model outcome is compared to current definition of natural forest habitat types of Natura 2000 sites. This allows conclusions about their potential future occurrence and endangered static protection state. Most tree species reveals a severe decline of suitable ranges in all RCP scenarios and range shift towards polwards regions and higher elevations. As a consequence protection goals of forest Natura 2000 areas are at stake.
Temporal variations of groundwater tables and implications forsubmarine groundwater discharge: a case study the Mediterranean Spanish coast
Authors: Buxó-Escapa Guillem , Cárdenas Castillero Gustavo , Adán Alejandro , Kuráž Michal , Folch Albert
Published: February 2023

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) has received increasing attention as it has been proven to be a fundamental hydrological process that supports many coastal biogeochemical cycles and, even more, social-ecological systems and their implications in saltwater intrusion dynamics. Fresh SGD (FSGD) is very dependent on climatology, whereby, in an analogous form as a river discharge, this event is tightly attached to the aquifer . This research aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on FSGD based on historical precipitation and groundwater level data and future climatic projections (precipitation and temperature).The daily precipitation and potential evapotranspiration time series from the public source were recorded between January 1, 1996, and October 31, 2022, in Cabrils hydrometeorological station in Northeastern Spain, where the trend shows a brief decrease in the precipitation in the latest years. The Box-Ljung forecasting method with an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the changes in precipitation for projected years. The ARIMA models, validated with 26 years of data (1996–2022), were used for predicting precipitation up to 2050. To estimate the effect on FSGD, piezometric data from the Argentona alluvial, close to the Cabrils station, was used. From the water table data, the hydraulic gradient can be defined and  FSGD calculated based on Darcy’s law.Based on the precipitation series, recharge is calculated compared with groundwater historical levels of the aquifer in the coastal zone, estimating its effect on groundwater discharge. With the rise of extreme events due to global warming, we could face a change in FSGD dynamics in the years to come. With high precipitation events expected to be more frequent, FSGD may be more discontinuous and with higher peaks, with direct implications in saltwater intrusion dynamics and the coastal biogeochemical cycles.Keywords: Submarine groundwater discharge, Aquifer recharge, Precipitation, Climate change, Extreme climate events.
VlinderNET – a tool for Probabilistic Hydraulic Water Distribution Modelling and Visualization
Authors: Morley Mark , van Thienen Peter , Vertommen Ina , Torello Mollie
Published: February 2023

Modelling and, as a consequence, decision-making for water distribution networks is ordinarily performed using the deterministic paradigm in which a single set of input conditions gives rise to a single output “truth”.  Reality is not so accommodating, however, and it is readily apparent that significant uncertainties remain in both our knowledge of the condition and the operating constraints of the network.  These uncertainties include variables such as the effective diameter of pipes, characterised by degradation with age and water chemistry, and the quantities of water demanded by consumers.  Traditionally, where these uncertainties have been accommodated in the decision-making process this has been by considering multiple scenarios to model a small number of model states. 
 
The application of probabilistic modelling for water distribution networks has gained significant traction in the literature in recent years – particularly in the context of decision support systems where stochastic parameter sampling is employed to improve the robustness of the obtained solutions.  Nevertheless, the wide interest in probabilistic modelling has yet to be reflected in the emergence of tools to apply this paradigm. 
 
This paper introduces VlinderNET a novel tool developed by KWR which seeks to bridge this gap by allowing the user to evaluate and visualize the impact of the manifest uncertainties in the network through the use of probabilistic hydraulic simulation.  VlinderNET permits the specification of complex, cascading Probability Density Functions for the input parameters for a hydraulic simulation.  These PDFs are extensively sampled to produce a wide range of stochastic input variables which are evaluated in a succession of hydraulic simulations which can be parallelized either on a local computer or with cloud support.  The results of the simulations are aggregated and the effects of the uncertain inputs are presented by the tool graphically and spatially both at the component and network level.  The tool further provides an API for third-party applications to integrate the probabilistic paradigm directly into decision support tools in a straightforward and consistent fashion.
Impact of agricultural land use and management on available soil phosphorus content in agricultural catchments of Ireland
Authors: Zurovec Ognjen , Hawtree Daniel , Leach Simon , Lynch Bridget
Published: February 2023

The build-up of soil phosphorus (P) in agricultural soils exceeding crop requirements can lead to diffuse P losses that could impair surface water quality. Therefore, adequate spatial information is required to develop viable tools and recommendations for sustainable P management at the local scale. Here, we present a database of nearly 8.000 samples, collected over a 12-year period in four meso-scale (~10 km2) agricultural catchments in Ireland. The agricultural area of each catchment is divided into sampling units (up to 2 ha) and soil samples are repeatedly taken from each sampling unit every 4 years. Four soil sampling campaigns were carried out to date. The results were analysed in the context of soil test P values (Morgan’s P) and classified according to the P index system as defined in the Ireland’s Nitrates Action Programme.Overall, levels of soil test P did not show substantial changes, with the exception of the most recent sampling campaign. However, when the collected data are considered in a spatial context and accompanied with soil data and land use information, they reveal a more complex story. Notable differences in soil P trends are observed at the individual catchments scale and impacted by land use, agricultural management intensity and some soil properties across and within the catchments. Similarly to the overall soil test P trends, the total area under P index 4 soils (above optimal) decreased in the period preceding the most recent sampling campaign. The most notable decreases in P index 4 soils are found in tillage and drystock fields, but also in the catchment dominated by highly stocked dairy farms availing of a nitrate derogation.Recent increases in soil test P and consequently areas under P index 4 may not be linked to increased organic or mineral P inputs, but rather come as a result of an overall increase in soil pH from increased lime application observed over the most recent period, which had an impact on the extractable Morgan’s P content. On-farm redistribution of fertilizer P inputs to soils with lower P index status has the potential to increase P use efficiency and decrease P loss risk to surface water.
Determination of upward/downward soil water fluxes using soil thermal profile series : two field case studies
Authors: Pascal Sailhac , Titouan Harrouet , Agnès Rivière , Pascal Maugis , Emmanuel Léger , Hermann Zeyen
Published: February 2023

Water transfer through the unsaturated zone, in terms of upward or downward water fluxes, is a critical term for estimation of the water budget. As fluid flow modifies diffusive heat transfer through advective processes, since the early 90s several studies have attempted to deduce vertical water flow from soil temperature series. Likewise, if information on the water content profiles is known, bulk thermal properties can be inferred from thermal time series at different depths.In this study we compare two field sites in the Paris Basin Area, with two different types of soil and vegetation. We present our preliminary results from two approaches aiming at retrieving inferring soil bulk thermal parameters, namely heat capacity and conductivity, as well as vertical water flow.On the one hand, thermal measurements until a depth of 1.8 m have been carried out in a managed crop field. Using frequency decomposition of the thermal series, the upward and downward flows are determined. The water fluxes are compared with high-frequency EM time-lapse maps in an attempt to spatialize the variations.On the other hand, the thermal properties of a wetland area are inferred from soil thermal time series inversion using the thermo-hydrodynamic code suite Ginette, and are compared with spatial distribution of vegetation derived from remote sensing imagery.The two approaches are compared and discussed with their respective caveats and abilities.
Frequency-size parameters as a function of dynamic range – the Gutenberg-Richter b-value for earthquakes
Authors: Geffers Gina-Maria , Main Ian G. , Naylor Mark
Published: February 2023

The Gutenberg-Richter b-value represents the relative proportion of small to large earthquakes in a scale-free population and is an important parameter used in earthquake hazard assessment. Discussion of the amount of data required to obtain a robust b-value has been extensive and is ongoing. To complement these analyses, we show the effect of the b-value with changes to the dynamic range – the difference between minimum magnitude (or magnitude of completeness) and maximum magnitude, which is inherently linked to the sample size, but not proportionately correlated. Additionally, we show that biases in high b-values are due to the bias in the mean magnitude of a catalogue, which asymptotically converges from below.We derive and analytic expression for the bias that arises in the maximum likelihood estimate of b as a function of dynamic range r. Our theory predicts the observed evolution of the modal value of the mean magnitude in multiple random samples of synthetic catalogues at different r, including the bias to high b at low r and the observed trend to an asymptotic limit with no bias. In the case of a single sample in real catalogues, the situation is substantially more complicated due to the heterogeneity, magnitude uncertainty and lack of knowledge of the true b-value. We summarise that these results explain why the likelihood of large events and the associated hazard is often underestimated in small catalogues with low r, for example in some studies of volcanic and induced seismicity.
The Future of Earth Radiation Budget Observations Beyond CERES: Libera and Continuity of the ERB Climate Data Record
Authors: Pilewskie Peter , Hakuba Maria , Stephens Graeme
Published: February 2023

The Libera Mission, named for the daughter of Ceres in Roman mythology, will provide continuity of the Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) Earth radiation budget (ERB) observations from space. Libera’s attributes enable a seamless extension of the current 23-year ERB climate data record from CERES. Libera will acquire spectrally integrated radiance over the CERES FM6-heritage broad spectral bands in the shortwave (0.3 – 5 μm), longwave (5 – 50 μm) and total (0.3 – beyond 100 μm) and adds a split-shortwave band (0.7 – 5 μm) to provide deeper insight into shortwave energy deposition. Libera leverages advanced detector technologies using vertically aligned black-carbon nanotubes with closed-loop electrical substitution radiometry to achieve radiometric uncertainty of approximately 0.2%. Libera will also employ a wide field-of-view camera to provide scene context and accelerate the development of the split-shortwave angular distribution models.Libera’s stewardship of the ERB record begins in the latter part of this decade, at an important juncture in the monitoring of climate trends. Libera is currently slated for a launch aboard JPSS-3 in December 2027, when the probability of a CERES data gap will be approaching 50%. The Libera science objectives associated with continuity and extension of the ERB data record are to identify and quantify processes responsible for ERB variability on various times scales. Beyond data continuity, Libera’s new and enhanced observational capabilities will advance our understanding of spatiotemporal variations of radiative energy flow in the visible and near-infrared spectral regions in addition to facilitating the rapid development of new angular distribution models for near-infrared and visible radiance-to-irradiance conversion.This talk provides an overview of the Libera’s observational strategy, its measurements, science goals and objectives. We discuss the importance of climate data record continuity in the context of the current climate state and anticipated changes over the next decade and beyond.
Volcano processes at the remote South Sandwich Islands of Zavodovski and Saunders observed from air and space
Authors: Richter Nicole , Massimetti Francesco , Hart Tom , Cartus Oliver , Leinss Silvan , Derrien Allan , Zorn Edgar , Shevchenko Alina , Wintersteller Paul , Meschede Martin , Walter Thomas
Published: February 2023

Under polar and subpolar climatic conditions, volcano edifice growth and stability are affected by extreme erosion rates, mass wasting, glacier loading (and unloading), and permafrost soil conditions. Relatively small changes in temperature can lead to very different snow and ice conditions in relation to all of the above. Therefore active, shallow magmatic plumbing systems and magmatic pathways might react sensitively to even minor changes of their surrounding environmental conditions. Almost constant degassing from the summit crater of Mount Curry (Zavodovski Island) and the presence of an active lava lake within the summit crater of Mount Michael (Saunders Island) suggest the existence of shallow magmatic plumbing systems at both volcanoes. They therefore represent exceptional study sites for investigating volcano processes under subpolar climatic conditions. Because of their remoteness, none of these islands are equipped with permanently installed ground-based instruments. We observe and quantify surface displacements related to volcanic activity, fumarolic activity, tectonic activity in the Scotia arc, as well as glacier flow from high-resolution combined TerraSAR-X and PAZ interferometry and amplitude offsets. Multi-temporal topographic data are available through the TanDEM-X SAR satellite mission and photogrammetric surveys conducted in April-Mai 2019 at Saunders Island and in January-February 2023 on Zavodovski Island. Here we introduce the first results of combining and exploring UAV photogrammetry with SAR satellite data. We present a geomorphological and structural analysis of Zavodovski Island and the outer subaerial and shallower submarine flanks of Saunders Island. We also estimate the glacier volume and volume change over time on Saunders as well as surface dynamics at Zavodovski. With this study we highlight the unprecedented detail and the valuable information that can be retrieved from tasked and targeted TerraSAR-X, TanDEM-X, and PAZ satellite acquisitions coupled
A new interpretation of bioclimatic indices at local scale in Italy
Authors: Massano Laura , Fosser Giorgia , Gaetani Marco
Published: February 2023

Viticulture is strictly related with weather and climate. Italy is a world leader in the wine business but also a known hot-spot for climate change. In the last decades, Italian winegrowers already experiences the effect of climate change, especially in terms of warmer growing season, more frequent and longer drought periods, increased frequency of weather extremes as well as shifts in phenological phases, that increase the exposure of the plant at frost risk. This study investigates the impact of climate variability and change on grape yield at local scale in three wine consortiums. Using climate variables from the E-OBS observational dataset, we computed a range of bioclimatic indices, selected by the International Organisation of Vine and Wine (OIV), and correlated them to grape yield data from three wine consortiums in in northern and central Italy. The collaboration with consortiums allows to include in the analysis other factors, besides climate, that influences wine productivity like vineyard management, policies and market.We evaluate how the interannual variability and the changes in the bioclimatic indices impact on grape productivity in the study areas using a single regression approach. We also combined the bioclimatic indices into a multi-regression analysis to investigate if a more complex methodologyincreases the portion of total yield variability explained, in comparison with the single regression approach. Keyword: climate change, agroclimatic service, wine, local scale
Flows in librating spheres-Resonant and non-resonant flows in longitudinally and latitudinally librating spheres
Authors: Noir Jerome , Lin Yufeng , Hollerbach Rainer , Vantieghem Stijn
Published: February 2023

We investigate the linear response to longitudinal and latitudinal libration of a rapidly rotating fluid-filled sphere. Asymptotic methods are used to explore the structure of resonant modes in both cases, provided that the nondimensional libration frequency is in the range 0<ω<2. High-resolution numerics are then used to map out this entire frequency range, picking out both the resonant peaks as well as the non-resonant troughs in between. The kinetic energy is O(1) at the peaks, and O(E1/2) at the troughs. As the Ekman number is reduced, down to E=10-10 for longitudinal libration and E=10-9 for latitudinal libration, the frequency response also exhibits an increasingly fractal structure, with more and more peaks and troughs emerging. The spacing between peaks is seen to follow an E1/2 self-similarity factor. However, detailed examinations of some of the more prominent troughs shows that their widths follow an E~0.23 self-similarity factor.
Evidence for the diagenetic formation of fused aromatic ring structures in an organic soil
Authors: Gamage Jeewan , Longstaffe James , Gillespie Adam , Lo Andy , Al-Abdul-Wahid Sameer , Voroney Paul
Published: February 2023

Understanding the molecular make-up of recalcitrant organic matter (rSOM) is important to postulate the capability of soil organic matter (SOM) to sequester carbon and mitigate climate change. Humic acid (HA) extracted from the river bed sediment (RS) from the West Holland river was analyzed, aiming to characterize and quantify the fused ring aromatic structures (FRA) portion. FARs can be formed through condensation and polymerization reactions and act as an important skeletal structure of the rSOM which has a mean residence time >1000 years. We conducted a series of nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) experiments, 13C Direct Polarization Magic Angle Spinning (DP-MAS) NMR spectroscopy, and Dipolar dephased (dd) DPMAS NMR, chemical shift anisotropy (CSA) cross-polarization (CP) total sideband suppression (TOSS) NMR experiment and a dd-CSA filtered CPTOSS to accurately quantify the proportion of FRAs in the sediment HA sample. We compared the proportions of the functional groups of the RS with the surface (0-20 cm, TS) and deep (>90 cm, CS) soil HAs of the nearby Holland Marsh, Muck Crops Research Station to understand the linkages and the transformations of SOM happened while transportation (wind erosion and horizontal seepage) to the muck river sediment. We found that 90% of the aromatic C in the RS is non-protonated, and 32% of the aliphatic region was non-protonated. The DPMAS spectral comparison between RS, TS and CS clearly showed that RS contains characteristic peaks of both TS and CS. Moreover, the proportion of non-protonated aliphatics in RS (32%) is high compared to TS (18%) and CS (29%). Our results indicate that in muck river sediment soil HA, non-protonated aliphatics (CRAM-like structures) contribute to the rSOM more than FRAs, while in TS and CS, FRAs' contribution is higher than the non-protonated aliphatics. Collectively our results show the link between terrestrial organic matter transportation to the river sediment and the transformation that occur in the rSOM fraction in the river sediment SOM. This new knowledge allows us to understand the structural changes that happen in the sequestered carbon in different soil environments.