bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Nocturnal Aerosol Monitoring at Roque de los Muchachos high-altitude station: Lunar Product Comparison
Authors: Barreto África , Román Roberto , Balotti Andrea , Frangipani Claudia , Gamonal Miguel Ángel , González-Fernández Daniel , González-Sicilia Pablo , Karanikolas Angelos , Pulimeno Simone , Busschots Cedric , Kazadzis Stelios
Published: July 2024

Lunar photometry is an emerging technique capable of filling the gaps in aerosol monitoring at night-time. This is particularly crucial in high latitudes and polar regions due to the prolonged absence of solar illumination. One of the most principal obstacles we encounter in monitoring aerosols at night-time using the Moon as a light source is the need for accurate extraterrestrial lunar irradiance due to the fast change of the Moon’s illumination over time. The RIMO (ROLO Implementation for Moon's Observation; Barreto et al., 2019) model is an implementation of the ROLO (RObotic Lunar Observatory) model. RIMO was performed by the polar aerosol community to estimate the AOD at night-time, transferring the calibration of the solar channels to nocturnal measurements by means of the Sun-Moon gain factor method. A further correction of the RIMO model, the so-called RIMO correction factor (RCF), has served to improve the accuracy of the lunar product (Román et al., 2020). Similar approaches to correct the ROLO or RIMO biases have been developed by AERONET and Skynet teams (Uchiyama et al., 2019). In this study, we will use an 11-month dataset of day- and night-time photometric measurements taken with the CE318-T photometer at Roque de Los Muchachos (La Palma, Canary Islands, Spain). This high-altitude observatory (2396 m above sea level) is an excellent location for astronomy and atmospheric observations. Day and night photometer observations performed at this pristine site are used to study and evaluate the differences between the AOD retrieved with the CE318-T photometer using RCF and AERONET lunar products. Acknowledgments: This article/publication is based upon work from COST Action Harmonia CA21119, supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). The authors would like to thank the NASA-AERONET network, AEROSPAIN Central Facility (https://aerospain.aemet.es/) and ACTRIS (grant agreement No 871115) to ensure the calibration of the sun photometers. References:Barreto et al.: Evaluation of night-time aerosols measurements and lunar irradiance models in the frame of the first multi-instrument nocturnal intercomparison campaign, Atmospheric Environment, Volume 202, Pages 190-211, ISSN 1352-2310, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2019.01.006, 2019.Uchiyama et al.: Nocturnal aerosol optical depth measurements with modified sky radiometer POM-02 using the moon as a light source, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 12, 6465–6488, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-6465-2019, 2019.Román et al.: Correction of a lunar-irradiance model for aerosol optical depth retrieval and comparison with a star photometer,, Atmos. Meas. Tech., 13, 6293–6310, https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-13-6293-2020, 2020.
Tenfold Increase in extreme fires in Europe expected under warming climate
Authors: Wetterhall Fredrik , Di Giuseppe Francesca , El Garroussi Siham
Published: July 2024

Extreme wildfires have a disastrous impact on society and the natural environment. Wildfires are prone in areas with fuel built up and desiccated over time. A warmer and drier climate will lead to an increase in the risk of extreme fires. This study quantifies how the risk of extreme fires is conditioned on potential temperature and precipitation changes. Our results indicate that large areas of southern Europe could experience a tenfold increase in the probability of catastrophic fires occurring any given year under a moderate CMIP6 scenario. If global temperatures reach the +2 C threshold, central and northern Europe will also become more susceptible to wildfires during droughts.The increasing probability of fire extremes in a warming climate, in combination with an average one-week extension of the fire season across most countries, is expected to strain Europe's ability to cope in the forthcoming decades.Future increases in the drivers of wildfires caused by climate change are expected to be highly challenging to mitigate. They will impose additional burdens on the European community in managing future fire risks. RescEU is considered the EU’s response to the need to efficiently offset the consequences that the predicted increase in these events can have. RescuEU has proven to reduce the number of causalities by increasing the efficiency and the costs of suppression actions. To a certain extent, investigating suppression capabilities can reduce the realized impacts.  This is curcial since this study indicates that large parts of Europe will experience double the likelihood of these events happening, and some parts of southern Europe could experience a ten-fold increase in the probability of extreme fire weather.
Rapidly intensifying extreme weather events in a warming world: how important are large-scale dynamics in generating extreme floods?
Authors: Fowler Hayley
Published: July 2024

The intensification of extreme precipitation in a warming climate has been shown in observations and climate models to follow approximately theoretical Clausius-Clapeyron scaling. However, larger changes have been indicated in events of short-duration which frequently trigger flash floods or landslides, causing loss of life. Global analyses of continental-scale convection-permitting climate models (CPCMs) and new observational datasets will be presented that provide the state-of-the-art in understanding changes to extreme weather (rainfall, wind, hail, lightning) and their compounding effects with global warming. These analyses suggest that not only warming, but dynamical circulation changes, are important in the manifestation of change to some types of extreme weather, which must be addressed in the design of new CPCM ensembles. We use our projections to provide the first analyses of impacts on infrastructure systems using a new consequence forecasting framework and show the implications for adaptation. It will be argued that a shift in focus is needed towards examining extreme weather events in the context of their ‘ingredients’ through their evolution in time and space. Coupled with exploration of their causal pathways, sequencing, and compounding effects – ‘storylines’ –, this can be used to improve both early warning systems and projections of extreme weather events for climate adaptation. 
Investigating the Development Conditions for Cyclones with Tropical Features in the Mediterranean Basin. 
Authors: Gutiérrez-Fernández Jesús , Alvarez-Castro Carmen , Scoccimarro Enrico , Cavicchia Leone , Gualdi Silvio
Published: July 2024

In recent years, the impact of cyclones with tropical characteristics in areas of the Mediterranean Sea, also called Medicanes (MEDIterranean hurriCANES; Emanuel, 2005), has caused extensive damage, particularly in coastal areas of Greece, Italy and North Africa. These cyclones have a relatively low frequency in Mediterranean areas, although they are associated with extreme weather phenomena (heavy rainfall, strong winds, and landslides). Therefore, the main goal of this work is to create an index of meteorological conditions that can determine favourable environment for the development of cyclones with tropical characteristics in the Mediterranean basin. For this purpose, we have selected some of the most intense Medicanes occurring during the last years. Using ERA5 data we study variables such as Convective available potential energy (CAPE), coupling index (CI; Bosart & Lackmann, 1995), Wind shear, Geopotential in 500 hPa and Sea surface temperature (SST).The findings of this study reveal that the development of cyclones with tropical characteristics in the Mediterranean is strongly linked to the formation of an intense trough, which is exposed to strong convective processes (high CAPE and CI values), low wind shear at high levels and a Mediterranean Sea temperature above 15ºC. The combination of all these  conditions at the same time is quite uncommon, so this could explain the infrequent and extreme nature of this type of cyclones.ReferencesEmanuel, K. (2005). Genesis and maintenance of" Mediterranean hurricanes". Advances in Geosciences, 2, 217-220.Bosart, L. F., & Lackmann, G. M. (1995). Postlandfall tropical cyclone reintensification in a weakly baroclinic environment: A case study ofHurricane David (September 1979). Monthly Weather Review, 123(11), 3268–3291. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1995)1232.0.co;2
Data-driven selection of optimal afforestation sites in Europe for drought adaptation 
Authors: Wetterhall Fredrik , El Garroussi Siham
Published: July 2024

Future climate change is expected to exacerbate hydrological drought in many parts of Europe, making effective management of water resources more imperative to ensure groundwater sustainability. The EU biodiversity strategy for 2030 suggests a strategic target to turn at least 10% of the EU's agricultural areas into high-diversity landscape features like hedges and trees.In this study, we investigate how afforestation would affect hydrological conditions in Europe under climate change, focusing on three scenarios: (1) a hypothetical extreme scenario transforming all agricultural land into forests under the current climate, (2) a more realistic scenario aligning with the EU biodiversity strategy which envisages converting 10% of the land under the current climate, and (3) a scenario involving the conversion of 10% of agricultural land into forests, but under a climate that is 2°C warmer.We use the LISFLOOD hydrological model setup across Europe at a spatial resolution of ~2km forced by gridded observed precipitation and temperature over a period of 1991-2020 under current climate. The results were evaluated as changes in evapotranspiration, groundwater levels, and river discharge peaks against a benchmark run. The findings from the afforestation scenario indicated a rise in evapotranspiration, higher groundwater levels, and diminished river flow peaks, suggesting an improvement in water sustainability as well as increased resilience to flooding. This study highlights the hydrological benefits of strategic land use changes, offering key insights for European water resource management and policy formulation in the face of climate change. It also offers a potential toll for decision makers to tackle affects of climate change.
The role of atmospheric circulation in explaining the summer extreme temperature trends over Europe
Authors: Famooss Paolini Luca , Pascale Salvatore , Ruggieri Paolo , Brattich Erika , Di Sabatino Silvana
Published: July 2024

The frequency, duration and intensity of summer extreme temperatures over Europe are increased since the middle of the twentieth century. These trends are expected to further increase in the future due to global warming, which will influence both the thermodynamics and dynamics of these events. In this context, the role played by the thermodynamic changes on trends of extreme temperature events has been largely studied. Differently, the role of dynamic changes in explaining their historical trends as well as their future projections is still under debate.In the present study, we assess the role played by dynamic changes on trends of summer extreme temperatures by assessing the trends in the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns (analogs) associated with the most severe heat waves during 1940—2022. Heat wave events are identified adopting the Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId) as suggested by Russo et al. (2015). Furthermore, the trends in the number of summer extreme temperatures in the regions of the identified heat waves are decomposed as suggested by Horton et al. (2015), in order to evaluate the relative contribution of dynamic, thermodynamic and interactive terms on the total extreme temperature trends.The analyses are performed using a multi-model initial-condition large ensemble, composed by CMIP5 and CMIP6 models forced with the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 585 (ssp585), respectively. This allows us to take into account both the global warming influence on extreme temperature trends and the uncertainties arising from model differences and internal climate variability. The analyses are performed for the time periods 1950—2010 and 2011—2100, in order to assess the role played by the different contributions on the historical and future trends of summer extreme temperatures, respectively.BibliographyHorton, D. E., Johnson, N. C., Singh, D., Swain, D. L., Rajaratnam, B., & Diffenbaugh, N. S. (2015). Contribution of changes in atmospheric circulation patterns to extreme temperature trends. Nature, 522(7557), 465-469.Russo, S., Sillmann, J., & Fischer, E. M. (2015). Top ten European heatwaves since 1950 and their occurrence in the coming decades. Environmental Research Letters, 10(12), 124003.
Agrometeorological assessment of olive cultivation practices in Messenia, Peloponnese, under climate change
Authors: Pantazis Christos , Solomos Stavros , Maneas Giorgos , Centrito Mauro , Marino Giovanni , Roggero Pier Paolo , Mihail Joanna , Fountoulakis Ilias , Kapsomenakis John , Gkisakis Vasilis , Nastos Panagiotis , Kourgialas Nektarios , Zerefos Christos S.
Published: July 2024

As the Mediterranean region is affected by climate change, it is crucial to understand how the variability in meteorological parameters and human activities impacts the natural resources in agriculture. Higher temperatures, reduced precipitation and extreme events like droughts and floods are fundamental variables that contribute to a negative water balance in nature. Additionally, while intensive farming has increased agricultural productivity, concerns about its sustainability and the potential consequences for ecosystems have emerged. Developing natural-based solutions is necessary to address major challenges, including environmental degradation, water scarcity, loss of soil fertility and biodiversity.This study focuses on integrated olive orchard agroecosystems management in Messenia regional unit, northwest Peloponnese, known for its rich agricultural heritage and olive oil production. Messenia has a Mediterranean climate, characterized by hot, dry summers and mild, wet winters, with a unique topography combining coastal plains and mountain area. In collaboration with local stakeholders we have developed two field experiments to monitor agrometeorological indicators and assess the current agricultural practices regarding soil and water management.: (i)The first experiment is being conducted in a hilly terrain orchard where we have applied a methodology to collect surface runoff and quantify soil erosion after rainfall events in three different treatments (use of herbicides, mowing of natural vegetation and cover crops seeding). (ii) The second experiment is being developed at a different orchard plant over flat terrain, where we are testing three different irrigation practices, namely: rainfed, irrigation based on common local practices and irrigation based on the phenological stages of olive trees. The agrometeorological conditions (e.g. ambient and soil temperature and humidity, potential evapotranspiration, vegetation properties) are monitored at both experiments with ground based instrumentation and airborne remote sensing. The three major aspects under study are soil characteristics, plant growth, and olive oil quality. First results indicate a difference of more than 30% in soil erosion rates for the different cover treatments. An improvement in oil quality without significant changes in olive oil content between rainfed and irrigated treatments is also found during the first year of the experimental study. Both experiments will remain active in the following years, and based on the results of our research we aim to consult local farmers on enhancing the resilience of olive tree cultivation and reducing the environmental footprint.
Decoding the climatic signal recorded in speleothems from La Cova del Drac in Mallorca
Authors: Torner Judit , Cacho Isabel , Fornós Joan , Català Albert , Cisneros Mercè , Bladé Ileana , Moreno Ana , Stoll Heather
Published: July 2024

Speleothems are distinctive carbonate deposits found in caves, used to reconstruct hydrological variability and provide valuable paleoclimate records. Nonetheless, the interpretation of their geochemical proxies becomes a considerable challenge.La Cova del Drac, situated on Mallorca Island, is one of the most frequented caves in Europe. During the late 19th century, pioneering explorers developed initial naturalistic expeditions and topographic studies. Nevertheless, it was not until the period between 1922 and 1935 that adaptation work was developed, leading to the establishment of permanent pathways, including the installation of the first lighting system. The two speleothems presented in this study were growing beyond these anthropogenic structures allowing a geochronological control into their initial growth.The examination of confocal laser scanning microscopy images of these two speleothems revealed distinct fluorescence banding, pointing to seasonal growth patterns. Additionally, high-resolution trace element profiles, acquired using LA-ICP-MS, reveal geochemical cycles reflecting the impact of seasonal cave ventilation on the trace element signatures within the speleothems. Through the combination of annual fluorescence layer counting, analysis of trace element cycles, and the adjustment with the 14C bomb peak as a tie point, well-resolved age models spanning certainly the past century have been achieved.This study establishes a robust framework by correlating the speleothem geochemistry results with cave monitoring and meteorological data. This exercise discerns the influence of the cave atmosphere seasonality from the hydrological and regional climatic signal across longer time scales. Consequently, this study validates the geochemical signal recorded in Mallorca cave speleothems as a reliable indicator of climatic variability in the western Mediterranean region.
Connection between the Tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean and Temperature Anomaly across West Antarctic
Authors: Duan Anmin , Zhang Pin
Published: July 2024

Since the 1970s, the West Antarctic and the Antarctic Peninsula have experienced dramatic warming during austral spring. This study investigates the mechanism behind this phenomenon by analyzing observations and utilizing the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4). Specifically, it focuses on how the tropical Pacific and Indian Ocean temperature anomaly mode (PIM) influences surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies across the West Antarctic during austral spring. The positive phase of the PIM is characterized by positive sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and western Indian Ocean, along with negative SSTAs in the Maritime Continent. This configuration leads to the generation of two branches of stationary Rossby wave trains originating from the tropical central Pacific and southeastern Indian Ocean. These waves propagate towards the West Antarctic, with an anticyclonic anomaly forming over the Amundsen Sea. The northerly winds transport warmer air to the Ross-Amundsen Seas, while southerly winds bring colder air to the Antarctic Peninsula-Weddell Sea region. This results in a dipole pattern of SAT anomalies over the West Antarctic. The dominance of SSTAs in the tropical central-eastern Pacific, particularly around the Maritime Continent, plays a crucial role in this process. Additionally, SSTAs in the western Indian Ocean, combined with those over the Maritime Continent, further contribute to the western pole of the SAT anomalies. Importantly, simulations incorporating prescribed PIM forcing accurately reproduce the observed dipolar SAT response across the West Antarctic, which highlights the necessity of considering the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans as a unified system when studying Antarctic climate dynamics.
Combining storylines and storytelling to stimulate climate action
Authors: Versteeg Gerrit Bertus , Terrado Marta
Published: July 2024

User engagement for developing climate services has traditionally displayed a unilateral transaction of climate data to tackle specific needs. However, user-centred approaches with bidirectional interaction are becoming more widely accepted in the climate services field. The use of storylines of how recent extreme events could evolve in different future climates has been identified as an innovative tool for user engagement and communication. However, the meaningfulness of storylines could fall short if the climate community fails to speak to users’ day-to-day tasks and decision-making contexts. Additional effort should be taken to welcome the social aspect of storylines by including storytelling as a tool to facilitate knowledge exchange and spot where climate science can speed up sustainable decisions. Framing information as a story could provide valuable benefits and stimulate action-taking by heightening cognitive processes that rely on emotion (Toomey, 2023). Moreover, stories require causal connections to structure whatever happens makes sense and is credible, identical to how science and decision-making behave (Hertel & Reisberg, 2004).Following a co-production framework, storylines have been applied to the development of the Digital Twin on Climate Change Adaptation under the Destination Earth (DestinE) initiative. On a case study basis (including wildfire, energy, hydrology, and urban applications), users were invited to discuss the added value storylines would bring to their local context when adapting to future climate change impacts. Preliminary results show that storylines can bring meaningful climate information to users and incentivize action. Its development in DestinE demonstrates the latest aspirations to make scientific results more relatable to non-academic audiences. However, user interactions during the project highlight the considerable differences among the various case studies, even within the same sectoral application. With the addition of storylines in DestinE, we illustrate a first and rather simple attempt to incorporate storytelling elements into user engagement to identify cross-scale cutting drivers of change. Understanding underlying issues and challenges that motivate user’s needs will play a vital role in making climate science meaningful. We recommend that the exploration of storytelling to align climate information to human needs should be recognized as a useful tool to move across both technical and social disciplines.Hertel, P., & Reisberg, D. (Eds.). (2004). Memory and emotion. Oxford University Press.Toomey, A. H. (2023). Why facts don't change minds: Insights from cognitive science for the improved communication of conservation research. Biological Conservation, 278, 109886.
Adaptation scenarios to climate change during heatwaves in the Grenoble metropolitan area
Authors: Gabeiras Jacobo , Staquet Chantal , Chemel Charles
Published: July 2024

The subject of this project is centered in the adaptation to climate change during heat waves in the 21st century in the area of Grenoble, France. The adaptation measures concern urban planning, such as the vegetation of the city, the increase of the albedo of buildings, design of water bodies distribution and others. Particular attention is paid to the impact of these measures on air quality. The objective is to determine, the urban planning to be implemented to combat the increase in temperatures due to climate change.This work relies on the widely used open-source atmospheric numerical model WRF (Weather Research and Forecast). First, a calibration run is performed over a past heat wave event in the valley for verification and obtention of the conditions that produce higher fidelity results contrasted with real measures of the event. This involving especially the land cover description and model parametrization. After, an analog model run over a future heat wave event in 2052 extracted from climate projections. This is used as a control run to compare with different results, where adaptation scenarios to combat climate change are applied.For the study of different urban planning scenarios, the WRF model is used coupled with the model BEP+BEM (Building Effect Parametrization + Building Energy Model), developed by Alberto Martilli, with whom we work in collaboration. This model parametrizes the urban-atmosphere interaction with a high-level representation of the city that allows for designing different scenarios regarding the land cover, the albedo and the urban canopy.The location of the study makes this project of great interest as well as computationally challenging, due to the mountainous area and steeps slopes surrounding the city. These results will be of great interest to local communities and policy makers as they will inform future decisions on urban planning and will contribute to the attractiveness of cities.
CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study URB-RCC: Urban Environments and Regional Climate Change
Authors: Halenka Tomas , Langendijk Gaby , Hoffmann Peter
Published: July 2024

Cities play a fundamental role in climate at local to regional scales through modification of heat and moisture fluxes, as well as affecting local atmospheric chemistry and composition, alongside air-pollution dispersion. Vice versa, regional climate change impacts urban areas and is expected to increasingly affect cities and their citizens in the upcoming decades. Simultaneously, the share of the population living in urban areas is growing and is projected to reach about 70 % of the world population by 2050. This is especially critical in connection to extreme events, for instance, heat waves with extremely high temperatures exacerbated by the urban heat island effect, in particular during night-time, with significant consequences for human health. Thus, cities are becoming one of the most vulnerable environments under climate change.Additionally, from the perspective of recent regional climate model development with increasing resolution down to the city scale, proper parameterization of urban processes plays an important role to understand local/regional climate change. The inclusion of the individual urban processes affecting energy balance and transport (i.e. heat, humidity, momentum fluxes, emissions) via special urban land-surface interaction parameterization of local processes becomes vital to simulate the urban effects properly. This will enable improved assessment of climate change impacts in cities and inform adaptation and/or mitigation options, as well as adequately prepare for climate-related risks (e.g. heat waves, smog conditions, etc.). Actually, IPCC is preparing the Special Report on Cities and Climate Change in 7th assessment cycle, where these aspects will be considered.We introduced this topic to the CORDEX platform aiming to provide regional climate downscaling, within the framework of so-called flagship pilot studies on challenging issues and gaps in regional climate change knowledge. The main aims and progress of this activity will be presented, especially preliminary analysis of Stage-0 experiments using case studies of heat wave and convection episode within ensemble simulations for City of Paris by models from different groups over the world.
Patterns of precipitation δ18O through the Iberian Peninsula: Machine Learning dynamic modeling for climate proxy calibration
Authors: Stachnik Artur , Morellón Mario , Martín-Chivelet Javier
Published: July 2024

Keywords: Paleoclimate proxy, Stable Isotope, Artificial Intelligence, Lake, SpeleothemOxygen isotope ratios are the most used geochemical proxy data in paleoclimatic and paleohydrological  reconstructions, currently measured in a variety of continental carbonates, including shells, sediments and speleothems. δ18O of carbonates that form in conditions of (or close to) isotopic equilibrium does not only depend on local temperature (that controls isotopic fractionation) but also on the isotopic composition of the water from which they precipitate, which in most cases is in turn determined or controlled by the δ18O of rainfall.  For this reason, understanding patterns of temporal and spatial changes in rainfall δ18O is essential for the calibration of proxies based in carbonate δ18O. Intensive monitoring programs are currently being performed in target natural systems such as lakes and karst caves. These programs however yield local isotopic records of limited duration, hampering their regional utility.      In this work, we present a Machine Learning based approach that takes into consideration not only the dependence of rainfall δ18O to latitude and altitude, but also to the main factors affecting winter precipitation variability within the Iberian Peninsula (IP), such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation. This approach is based in the available isotopic data of precipitation (IAEA Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation – GNIP) and local series.Our model provides predicted values of δ18O with improved accuracy and uncertainty relative to current approaches. By capturing the variability of δ18O associated with diverse atmospheric conditions, it will also contribute to refine the interpretation paleoclimatic reconstructions in this region. Contribution to PID2021-122854OB-I00 and research group 910198 of the UCM.
Project FOCI - Non-CO2 Forcers and Their Climate, Weather, Air Quality and Health Impacts: Where we are and where we go
Authors: Halenka Tomas , Sokhi Ranjeet , Finardi Sandro
Published: July 2024

While overall the global warming with the causes and global processes connected to well-mixed CO2, and its impacts on global to continental scales are well understood with a high level of confidence, there are knowledge gaps concerning the impact of many other non-CO2 radiative forcers leading to low confidence in the conclusions. This relates mainly to specific anthropogenic and natural precursor emissions of short-lived GHGs and aerosols and their precursors. The anthropogenic origin is connected to large extent with the urban environment. These gaps and uncertainties also exist in their subsequent effects on atmospheric chemistry and climate, through direct emissions dependent on changes in e.g., agriculture production and technologies based on scenarios for future development as well as feedbacks of global warming on emissions, e.g., permafrost thaw.The main goal of the EC Horizon Europe project FOCI, is to assess the impact of key radiative forcers, where and how they arise, the processes of their impact on the climate system, to find and test an efficient implementation of these processes into global Earth System Models and into Regional Climate Models, eventually coupled with CTMs, and finally to use the tools developed to investigate mitigation and/or adaptation policies incorporated in selected scenarios of future development targeted at Europe and other regions of the world, with final emphasis to selected cities environment. We will develop new regionally tuned scenarios based on improved emissions to assess the effects of non-CO2 forcers. Mutual interactions of the results and climate services producers and other end-users will provide feedbacks for the specific scenarios optimization and potential application to support the decision making, including climate policy.Coupled RCM-CTM modelling experiment strategies and preliminary results will be presented in addition to the contemporary status of the project.
Project Geohazards: New Initiative on Climate Projections and Predictions
Authors: Halenka Tomas
Published: July 2024

The overal project falls under "Earth and related environmental sciences" and is designed to be multidisciplinary. One of the main field is "Atmospheric Sciences, Meteorology" due to the predominance of research related to atmospheric, meteorological and climatic hazards (WP1 and WP2) and the interaction of the Earth's surface spheres with the atmosphere (WP3) or the study of atmospheric pollution by dust particles (WP5). Given the wide range of natural and anthropogenic geohazards that are the subject of research in this project, other geoscience and environmental specialisations as well as more applied fields such as engineering and computer science are also among the sub-disciplines. The basic theme of the WP2 is projection (and prediction) of climate change and research on its impact on risk phenomena, with analysis of their causes and assessment of their consequences in selected areas of human activity. This will be achieved primarily through the analysis of available model simulation data, supplemented by our own modelling activities, especially through the analysis of extreme characteristics and indices, which are easier to interpret in the research of the impacts in follow-up studies of selected areas.The main directions of the project are:Preparation and analysis of available model data and models adaptation and development
Analysis of output uncertainties and their impact on projections of climate change and risk events
Construction of custom climate change and risk scenarios for the selected area
Analysis of climate prediction options using currently available resources
Climate change projections for selected large cities with emphasis on risk phenomena
Assessment of the consequences of climate change and risk phenomena in selected sectors (health, agriculture, forestry, socio-economic), their prevention and warning
Benefit-risk analysis of sulphur aerosol-based geoengineering
Most of these aims are connected to other activities and projects, like Horizon Europe project FOCI, I4C, aktivity WCRP CORDEX FPS URB-RCC, local projects PERUN and SEEPIA, etc. Outputs are planned to be co-designed with affiliated CHMI for the purpose of providing climate Services in selected directions.
Rapid Flood Guidance for flash floods – a trial service for England and Wales, summer 2024
Authors: Pilling Charlie , Wynn Adrian , Turner Russell , Maybee Ben
Published: July 2024

Flash floods, or rapid response catchment flooding, can be defined at flooding impacts between 0-6 hours of impactful rainfall occurring. Nowcasting can be defined at the 0-2 or 0-6 hour time scale. To save lives, warnings at these very short lead times, whether they are for urban areas or ravines, need to be issued rapidly to a receptive customer base.The Met Office Expert Weather Hub (formally guidance unit) is operating a surge capacity this summer drawing on rapidly updating diagnostics to identify areas of intense convection and flood producing rainfall, as well as other hazards.At the same time, the Flood Forecasting Centre (FFC) is piloting a Rapid Flood Guidance Service where days 1 and/or day 2 of the daily Flood Guidance Statement are highlighted as susceptible to rapid flooding. This will highlight potentially affected areas of England and Wales to emergency responders. Using the detailed output from the Expert Weather Hub, the FFC will issue Rapid Flood Guidance to emergency responders at short lead times, less than 6 hours, and possibly less than 2 hours’ notice. In addition, the Met Office are running a summer forecasting testbed which will explore two rapid surface water flooding hazard impact models. The Surface Water Flooding Hazard Impact Model, SWFHIM, was developed through the Natural Hazards Partnership and is currently used operationally in the FFC. The second, FOREWARNS, has been developed by the University of Leeds and the Met Office.This presentation will explain the components of the Rapid Flood Guidance trial and present key findings from research to operations, as well as a summary of the evaluation from the hundreds of emergency responders who have already signed up for the trial. It will also highlight key findings from the evaluation of the surface water impact models, with a focus on less than 24 hours lead time. We will highlight development areas to the science and operational development, and suggest how such short notice warnings can best be communicated to potential users to incite the appropriate actions.
What makes a good climate change story?  
Authors: Wilks Jeremy
Published: July 2024

In this session Euronews science correspondent Jeremy Wilks discusses coverage of climate change in the mainstream media. Jeremy is the host of the Climate Now series, made in cooperation with the Copernicus Climate Change Service, and has been covering climate change on a full-time basis every month since September 2019. We will talk about story choice, explore how subjects are identified, locations decided, and interviews conducted. We look at how the broadcast media explains climate change science, and ask if the focus of climate change coverage is unduly skewed towards mitigation rather than adaptation. Why aren't mainstream media companies covering climate change stories better, and what are they doing to improve their content?
Extreme temperatures and respiratory mortality in the capital cities at high latitudes in Northeast China
Authors: Ma Yuxia
Published: July 2024

: With the rapid increase in global warming, the impact of extreme temperatures on morbidity and mortality related to respiratory diseases has attracted considerable attention. In the current study, we quantified the relative risks (RRs) of mortality for respiratory diseases in three capital cities in Northeast China. We used a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) based on a generalized additive model (GAM) to estimate the impact of extreme temperatures on respiratory mortality in Shenyang, Changchun, and Harbin from 2014 to 2016. The results revealed that the maximum cumulative RRs and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were 1.52 (1.28–1.80), 1.42 (1.07–1.89), and 1.38 (1.21–1.58) in Shenyang, Changchun, and Harbin respectively when the median temperature was used as reference. The effect of extremely high temperature (99th percentile relative to 90th percentile) on respiratory mortality was found to be strongest in Shenyang (at the lowest latitude), while the effect of extreme low temperature (1st percentile relative to 10th percentile) on respiratory mortality was strongest in Harbin (at the highest latitude). In Shenyang and Changchun, the effects of high temperatures were much more intense and pronounced in females. Furthermore, the effect of high temperatures was more acute, whereas the effect of low temperatures was longer lasting. Conclusions are as follows: extreme temperatures have significant effects on morbidity related to respiratory diseases in Northeast China. At lower latitudes, the effect of high temperatures was lower and that of cold temperatures was higher. The heat effect was acute and short lasting, whereas the cold effect was weaker but longer lasting. Moreover, the heat effect was stronger among the female population than among the male population. The results of this study could provide suggestions for reducing the impact of extreme temperatures on human health.
Mapping ozone deposition to winter wheat in Northern Italy: integrated use of measured data to assess stomatal uptake at different spatio-temporal resolutions
Authors: Guaita Pierluigi Renan , Marzuoli Riccardo , Gerosa Giacomo Alessandro
Published: July 2024

Tropospheric ozone (O3) is a secondary atmospheric pollutant that poses a significant threat to vegetation, leading to oxidative stress, growth reduction, and yield losses. Research activities have demonstrated that O3 damage is related more to the ozone flux absorbed by leaves, rather than simple O3 exposure, and dose-response relationships accounting for O3 stomatal flux effects on biomass growth have been defined for several crop species within the ICP-Vegetation program.This study aimed at calculating and mapping the O3 deposition to winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in the Lombardy region (Italy) by applying a dual-sink big-leaf model to estimate the stomatal uptake by crop, i.e. the POD6 which is the seasonal Phytotoxic Ozone Dose above a threshold of 6 nmol m-2 s-1.The model run on spatialized measured data of air temperature, relative humidity, precipitation, wind speed, global radiation and O3 concentration provided by regional monitoring networks for year 2017, and included calculations of the evolution of crop’s geometry and phenology, light penetration within the canopy, stomatal conductance, atmospheric turbulence, and soil water availability to the plants. This workflow was also used to assess the effect of different spatio-temporal resolutions on POD6 patterns, testing a wide array of configurations, from 1×1 km2  to 50×50 km2, and from 1h to 6h.Results revealed that in 2017 POD6 was on average 2.03 ± 0.81 mmol m-2 PLA (Projected Leaf Area), leading to an estimation of 7.5 ± 3.1% relative grain loss. The analysis on the involved environmental factors identified air temperature as the most limiting factor to O3 stomatal conductance, while soil water emerged as the key factor influencing the POD6 spatial patterns. Assessment of different spatio-temporal resolutions suggested that finer resolutions are the only ones being able to detect local features (thus being able to, e.g., guide spatially based mitigation measures), and that coarser resolutions might lead to lower POD6 values, even though they are much affordable from a computational point of view and represents a good compromise if only a general risk assessments is requested.
Development of a Deep Learning–Based Rainfall Prediction System for Urban-Scale Hydrological Disaster Response
Authors: Jin Jonghun , Lee Youngmi , Ko Chulmin , Jeong Yeongyun , Jeong jinwoo , Kim Byungsik
Published: July 2024

Over the past 50 years (1973–2022), South Korea has experienced a modest increase in average precipitation. Notably, the maximum hourly rainfall has significantly risen (Kim et al., 2022). There has been an observed intensification in the intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events, leading to substantial socioeconomic damages, flash floods, and urban flooding with severe consequences (Dave et al., 2021). Addressing locally occurring extreme precipitation in densely populated areas requires accurate urban-scale rainfall predictions. Given the anticipated increase in future precipitation variability on the Korean Peninsula, detailed spatiotemporal prediction technologies are crucial for effectively managing and responding to extreme precipitation events.We developed a rainfall prediction system through deep learning approach. In this study, we crafted a rainfall prediction system based on U-Net, a deep-learning architecture widely employed as a foundational model in previous rainfall prediction studies (Badrinath et al., 2023; Han et al., 2023; Lyu et al., 2023). The Advantage of U-Net lies in its end-to-end usability, minimizing the need for manual feature extraction, even with limited training data in the weather domain. To predict rainfall patterns over time, we adopted a recursive approach, drawing inspiration from prior research (Ayzel et al., 2020). In the case of the concentrated rainfall event in Osong in South Korea, July 2023, comparing QPE (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation) with the proposed rainfall prediction technology showed superior performance in terms of spatial patterns and rainfall intensity for the 10-minute lead time. Conversely, numerical weather prediction (Korea Local Analysis and Prediction System) failed to capture the rainfall pattern. For the 180-minute lead time, numerical prediction successfully detected rainfall, while the proposed prediction technology did not capture the rainfall pattern.Despite being in the early stages of development, case studies validate that our proposed system effectively simulates rainfall patterns that traditional nowcasting or numerical methods may not accurately replicate. However, limitations emerged in predicting localized rainfall intensity as the prediction time lengthened, revealing a tendency for spatial patterns of rainfall to be smoothed. As a follow-up study, our objective is to explore the applicability of deep learning across various aspects of the rainfall prediction process. This includes investigating super-resolution and blending of data produced by existing rainfall prediction methods, conducting empirical studies of deep learning models for domestic heavy rainfall cases, and optimizing existing numerical models. Our goal is to assess the feasibility of deep learning and enhance the accuracy of continuous prediction technology.
Climatic drivers for summer and winter wildfire burned area in northern Italy
Authors: Baronetti Alice , Fiorucci Paolo , Provenzale Antonello
Published: July 2024

The Mediterranean region is a focal point for wildfires. Climate change is projected to affect the Mediterranean hydrological cycle, resulting in intensified drought conditions and increased fire hazard. Even though northern Italy is rich in water resources, wildfires have become increasingly prevalent in recent decades, occurring not only during the summer but also in the winter season.This study explores the climatic drivers influencing the monthly burned area (BA) during both summer and winter fire seasons in northern Italy from 2007 to 2022.The GPS-based BA perimeters analysed here are provided by the monitoring campaigns performed by the Carabinieri Command of Units for Forestry, Environmental, and Agri-food protection. For each summer ( May - October) and winter (November -April) fire season, the monthly percentage of burned area at 0.11 degrees of resolution for the 2007-2022 period was obtained. A total of 150 daily precipitation and maximum and minimum ground station series were collected, converted at monthly scale, reconstructed, homogenised and spatialised at 0.11° resolution by mean of Universal Kriging with auxiliary variables. Subsequently, several climatic indices were computed for precipitation (Precipitation, Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) and Consecutive Wet Days (CWD)), temperature (Maximum and Minimum Temperature and Potential Evapotranspiration (ET0)) and drought (Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Water Balance (WB)). The Pearson’s correlation test between the detrended monthly time series of BA and of climatic indices was performed for each pixel and for both the summer and winter seasons. Only the strongest and significant correlations between BA and climatic indices  were retained to identify the best BA predictors. Based on the CORINE Land Cover map, for each season the vegetation classes that were most susceptible to wildfires, and their typical elevation ranges, were identified.This study highlights different types of behaviour between summer and winter wildfires. Specifically, summer fires predominantly affect vegetation classes located in the plains, such as evergreen broadleaf forests and natural vegetation mixed with croplands. By contrast, winter wildfires target deciduous broadleaf forests located between 800 and 1000 m. a.s.l..