bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The influence of biofilms and mineral loading on marine plastic fate
Authors: Posth Nicole Rita , Carreres Calabuig Joan Antoni , Mueller Sascha , Rogers Kelsey , Keulen Nynke
Published: March 2020

Plastic pollution is a global concern and potential marker of the Anthropocene, yet controls on the environmental fate of this contaminant remain underexplored. Synthetic polymers emitted to aquatic systems undergo chemical, physical and biological forces that affect their weathering, aggregation, degradation, leaching, transport and burial. In the aquatic environment, plastic surfaces attract both biological and mineralogical loading. The presence of biofilm on marine plastics suggests a significant microbial role in the fate of plastic in this new ecological niche, called the Plastisphere. Microorganisms may influence degradation, transport and burial of plastic in the sediment, but also plastic´s incorporation into biogeochemical cycles. Likewise, mineral crystallization on plastic surfaces (i.e., phosphate, iron – rich) induced by microbial processes or formed abiotically may play an important role in plastic aggregation, transport, degradation and burial of meso- to nanoscale size plastics. 

Here, we present our current field and laboratory investigations of biological and mineralogical loading of plastics in various geochemical settings. We combine bioimaging (He-ion microscopy (HIM), Scanning Electron Microscopy-Energy Dispersive X-Ray Spectroscopy (SEM-EDS), microbial community and eco-physiology studies, as well as elemental analysis to test mechanisms of loading on plastics, aggregation, transport, and potential impact on element cycling. Results of an on-going in situ study of polystyrene (PS), polyethylene (PE), marine paint, and wood exposed in Svanemøllen Harbor, Copenhagen and laboratory experiments are described. We explore whether surface characteristics and biogeochemical setting are important drivers for the development of mineral-rich biofilm and the role of these mineral-microbe associations in the fate of plastics.
Spatial-temporal variation analysis and prediction of water quality in the Yellow River basin, China
Authors: Si Yuan , Peng Wenqi , Dong Fei , Du Xia
Published: March 2020

With the implementation of relevant policies on pollution control, the water environment of the Yellow River basin has been improved during recent years. However, for the river basin management agency, there remains an urgent need for gaining better knowledge of the changing patterns of water quality throughout the basin in order to get early warnings of water quality deterioration and make decisions on water allocation schemes. In this study, we collected water quality data including 24 routine monitoring parameters during 2014-2019 from over 100 monitoring stations located along the Yellow River. After assessing the water quality grade for each section according to the Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water in China, we identified the key parameters that affect the water quality condition of the basin. The spatial and temporal variations of the key water quality parameters, in particular the relationships with driving factors which include natural factors (i.e., precipitation, temperature and evaporation) as well as anthropogenic factors (i.e., land cover and land use, pollution emission, population and social economy), were presented by conducting correlation analysis. Furthermore, based on the characteristics of the water quality time series and the significances of the driving factors to water quality, we built several data-driven models to predict the water quality condition at a monthly scale for the Yellow River basin, such as seasonal autoregressive model (SAR), multivariate linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN), while the performances of those models were evaluated. This study provides critical information for understanding the response relationship between water quality and its related factors for a typical river basin, thus facilitating the dynamic assessment of water resources.
Inverse model of single-fracture hydraulic and tracer experiments including a laser scanning data correction
Authors: Hokr Milan , Balvín Aleš , Jankovec Jakub , Grecká Marie , Jankovský Filip
Published: March 2020

We present inverse modelling results of a laboratory hydraulic and tracer experiment in a single fracture in a granite block. The full set of experiments, artificial and natural fracture examples, and various tracers used, are described in details in the separate conference contribution by Jankovsky et al. Here we focus on two blocks 80 x 50 x 40 cm, split by an artificial fracture and conservative tracers. Several test realisations include a choice of different in/out holes and a use of the in-plane sensor grid (boreholes) either for pressure sensors or for tracer (conductivity) sensors. The measurement is consistent across the tests, although there are some anomalies.

The model of artificial fracture is based on fracture geometry obtained by laser scanning, providing (x,y,z) point cloud in 0.1 mm resolution. The two surfaces are scanned separately and then the coordinate systems connected from the scan of the completed block. The aperture is determined with uncertainty in the mutual movement of the surfaces, so various parameterization of its correction is included as part of the inverse modelling.

The solved problem is 2D with spatially variable parameters (element-wise). The Darcy flow is calculated with the transmissivity obtained by the cubic law. The transport model is a standard case of advection and hydrodynamic dispersion. The dispersivity parameters are meant as representing the dispersion in a smaller scale then the aperture field variations captured by the laser scanning data. This is also subject of the inverse modelling (optimization).

The flow and transport simulations within the inverse modelling are made by Flow123d, the in-house open-source code of the Technical University of Liberec. The inverse solver UCODE (freeware of the US Geological Survey) uses a gradient based method with parameter perturbation sensitivity evaluation. Other simulations are made with MODFLOW/MT3D and FEFLOW. Some of the differences are analysed and explained as numerical effects depending on discretisation.

Hydraulic and transport aperture could be independently determined either from the flow rate and pressure data or from the tracer breakthrough. Each block had different correction of the relative position of the surfaces and different hydraulic resistance. This can be caused by small surface irregularities or loose grains, not captured by the laser scan, hindering the perfect contact of the surfaces.

The activities were funded by Czech Technological Agency under Project No. TH02030543
Simulating Gross Primary Productivity of vegetation under soil water stress using in-situ and reanalysis soil moisture data inputs
Authors: Lam Timothy , Tai Amos P. K.
Published: March 2020

This study utilises in-situ and reanalysis soil moisture data inputs from various sources to evaluate the effect of soil water stress on Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) of different Plant Functional Types (PFTs) using Terrestrial Ecosystem Model in R (TEMIR), which is under development by Tai Group of Atmosphere-Biosphere Interactions (Tai et al. in prep.). An empirical soil water stress function with reference to Community Land Model (CLM) Version 4.5 is employed to quantify water stress experienced by vegetation which hinders stomatal conductance and thus carboxylation rate. The model results are compared against observations at FLUXNET sites in semi-arid regions across the globe at daily timescale where in-situ GPP data is available and water stress inhibits plant functions to some extent. By dividing the soil into two layers (topsoil and root zone), GPP simulation improves significantly comparing with using single layer bulk soil (Modified Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient N increases from -0.686 to -0.586). Such upgrade is particularly substantial for vegetation with shallow roots such as grass PFTs. Despite this improvement, the model is characterised by an overall overestimation of GPP when water stress occurs, and inconsistency of accuracy subject to PFTs and degree of water stress experienced. This study informs responses of various PFTs to soil water stress, capacity of TEMIR in simulating the responses, and possible drawbacks of empirical soil water stress functions, and highlights the importance of topsoil moisture data input for vegetation drought monitoring.

Keywords: Soil water stress, Terrestrial model representation, Photosynthesis, In-situ data, Reanalysis data, FLUXNET
Assessment of meteorological and agricultural droughts using in-situ observations and remote sensing data
Authors: Zuo Depeng , Cai Siyang , Xu Zongxue , Yang Hong
Published: March 2020

Most research on drought assessment adopted historical in-situ observations, however, there has been increased data availability from remote sensing during the recent years. This study utilizes the two sources of data in drought assessment. Using the historical in-situ observations, the spatiotemporal variations of meteorological drought were firstly investigated by calculating the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 1, 3, 6-month time scales in Northeast China. Using remote sensing data, the combined deficit index (CDI) for agricultural drought assessment was computed based on tri-monthly sum of deficit in antecedent rainfall and deficit in monthly NDVI at land cover type and sub-type levels in the same region. In the end, the agricultural drought calculated by the CDI was evaluated against the deficit in crop yield, as well as deficit in Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Evapotranspiration (ET), in order to verify the applicability of the CDI for agricultural drought assessment in the study region. The results showed that the CDI has better correlations with the SPEI (R2=0.48) than the SPI (R2=0.05) at 3-month scales with weight factor a=0.5 in dry farming areas. The spatial pattern of the CDI showed that the area of agricultural drought increased from July to October. In addition, a significant linear correlation was found between the CDI and anomaly in annual agricultural yield (R2=0.55), and anomaly in monthly land surface temperature (R2=0.42). The results prove that the CDI calculated by remote sensing data is not only a reliable indicator for agricultural drought assessment in Northeast China, but also provides useful information for agricultural drought disaster prevention and mitigation, and water management improvement.
Standardized automated data collection for soil C model parametrization at the regional scale of Russia
Authors: Vasiliev Taras , Vladimirov Artem , Pashkov Alexander , Vasilyeva Nadezda
Published: March 2020

The aim of the study is to perform a regional scale (Russia) soil type-specific soil C models calibration with ESMs using Russian National Soil database. Particularly, to obtain temperature  and moisture dependencies of soil C cycle reaction rates, the model can be fitted to soil profiles of the same soil type in different climatic conditions. For this aim historical climate data, carbon concentration profiles and soil profile descriptions (soil type,  texture and other properties that can provide additional information to constrain model parameter values) are needed in different spatial locations. 

The regional soil database consists of standardized detailed descriptions of soil profiles for each soil type encountered in Russia, including soil carbon content and organic matter composition proxies, profile distribution of soil texture, nitrogen and pH.

We introduced a data collection system with a tool for field soil description according to the standard as well as a tool for soil determination which includes Kohonen algorithm to predict soil type based on the determined soil profile sequence of horizon indexes. Further the system allows automated RunaWFE based request for soil sample analysis (national method standards) which is obligatory accompanied with standard soil profile and samples descriptions. The system collects all data for expansion of regional soil database.
Dating extensional deformation to unravel exhumation patterns in the Internal Dinarides
Authors: Löwe Georg , Schneider Susanne , Pfänder Jörg A. , Ustaszewski Kamil
Published: March 2020

Ar/Ar-in-situ geochronology by laser ablation NGMS (noble gas mass spectrometry) provides a powerful tool to determine inter- and intra-granular age variations of potassium-bearing minerals while maintaining the structural integrity of a sample. This makes it an excellent method in targeting the understanding of the post-collisional evolution of an orogen by dating different mica generations. In order to investigate the timing of exhumation related to extensional deformation in the Internal Dinarides, we sampled paragneisses from the upper greenschist- to amphibolite-grade mylonitic detachment zones of two metamorphic core complexes (MCC’s). The MCC’s are located at the distal Adriatic passive margin (Cer MCC, central western Serbia) and within the Late Cretaceous suturing accretionary wedge complex (Motajica MCC, northern Bosnia and Herzegovina) that separates Adria-derived units from blocks of European affinity.

Mica grains were assigned to either pre-kinematic or syn-kinematic growth, according to their structural context, texture and grainsize. Pre-kinematic growth is characterized by large, deformed minerals of up to 3.5 mm in size, while rather fine-grained, recrystallized mineral aggregates that usually formed in the strain shadow of larger clasts represent syn-kinematic growth.

The ages of pre-kinematic white mica from paragneisses of the Motajica detachment range from approx. 80 to 25 Ma. They partly show a large intra-granular age spread characterized by significantly older core ages becoming progressively younger towards the rim. This pattern likely suggests diffusive loss of radiogenic Ar. Ages between 80-55 Ma in the central parts of the grains, associated with a top-W transport direction, are interpreted as the time interval of mineral growth and subsequent deformation in an accretionary wedge during E-ward subduction of the Adriatic passive margin underneath European units.

Syn-kinematic white mica from Motajica yielded ages between 22 and 16 Ma, which are interpreted as the time of peak activity of extension. This also corresponds with the time of crustal extension in the Pannonian Basin to the north. At Cer MCC, located roughly 150 km ENE of Motajica MCC and structurally below the accretionary wedge complex, ages of deformed white mica indicate exhumation between 19 and 15 Ma with a top-N directed transport.  

Our results suggest that the opening of the Pannonian Basin in response to slab-retreat underneath the Carpathian orogen resulted in the extensional reactivation of suturing thrusts that separated Adriatic from European units, leading to exhumation of parts of the accretionary wedge (Motajica MCC). This event was followed by the progressive exhumation of the passive Adriatic margin (Cer MCC) that occupied a structural position below the suturing accretionary wedge.
Multi-phase hydromechanical modeling of induced seismicity: general insights and the case study of the deep geothermal project in St. Gallen, Switzerland
Authors: Zbinden Dominik , Rinaldi Antonio Pio , Diehl Tobias , Wiemer Stefan
Published: March 2020

Industrial projects that involve fluid injection into the deep underground (e.g., geothermal energy, wastewater disposal) can induce seismicity, which may jeopardize the acceptance of such geo-energy projects and, in the case of larger induced earthquakes, damage infrastructure and pose a threat to the population. Such earthquakes can occur because fluid injection yields pressure and stress changes in the subsurface, which can reactivate pre-existing faults. Many studies have so far focused on injection into undisturbed reservoir conditions (i.e., hydrostatic pressure and single-phase flow), while only very few studies consider disturbed in-situ conditions including multi-phase fluid flow (i.e., gas and water). Gas flow has been suggested as a trigger mechanism of aftershocks in natural seismic sequences and can play an important role at volcanic sites. In addition, the deep geothermal project in St. Gallen, Switzerland, is a unique case study where an induced seismic sequence occurred almost simultaneously with a gas kick, suggesting that the gas may have affected the induced seismicity.

Here, we focus on the hydro-mechanical modeling of fluid injection into disturbed reservoir conditions considering multi-phase fluid flow. We couple the fluid flow simulator TOUGH2 with different geomechanical codes to study the effect of gas on induced seismicity in general and in the case of St. Gallen. The results show that overpressurized gas can affect the size and timing of induced earthquakes and that it may have contributed to enhance the induced seismicity in St. Gallen. Our findings can lead to a more detailed understanding of the influence of a gas phase on the induced seismicity.
The ESA-funded Aeolus/EarthCARE Aerosol Assimilation Study (A3S)
Authors: Letertre-Danczak Julie , Benedetti Angela , Quesada-Ruiz Samuel , Dabas Alain , Flament Thomas
Published: March 2020

In recent years, aerosol prediction has become more skillful thanks also to advances in aerosol observability. Several centres with forecasting capabilities now offer forecasts of aerosol fields up to five days ahead. At ECMWF, the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) delivers aerosol products based on analysis of Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) from various sensors. Recent reasearch efforts have also shown the potential of lidar backscatter to extract aerosol information, providing also important insight on the aerosol vertical structure.

In preparation to the launch of the Aeolus mission, ESA funded a collaboration between ECMWF and MeteoFrance, the
Aeolus/EarthCARE Aerosol Assimilation Study (A3), to look at the potential of lidar data from the ALADIN lidar instrument on board of Aeolus. While this instrument is designed for wind retrieval and not specifically for aerosol science, some useful information can be extracted through a combination of post-processing and assimilation. This is also preparatory work for the EarthCARE mission which will operate a UV lidar at the wavelength of 355nm, designed to study aerosols and clouds.

The A3S project demonstrated the technical feasibility of assimilating lidar backscatter signal at that frequency usingdemonstration datasets built on model and CALIPSO data. Following the successfull launch of Aeolus in 2018, ESA has funded a continuation of the A3S project with the goal to assimilate in-orbit data of particle backscatter (L2A) from the ALADIN instruments. In this presentation, preliminary results from this activity will be discussed, focusing in particular on the post-processing of the L2A particle backscatter product using a model-dependent cloud screening to ensure that only aerosol signal is allowed into the 4D-Var analysis.
An application of the MIBSA model to the Little Chief Landslide
Authors: Dattola Giuseppe , Crosta Giovanni Battista , Stewart Thomas
Published: March 2020

The prediction of a landslide behavior is fundamental for the design of early warning system (EWS) as well for the hazard and risk assessment. The evaluation of expected landslide volume (or extent), displacement, velocity and acceleration is mandatory. Very often empirical formulas are used for landslide volume determination whereas semi-empirical methods like the inverse velocity approach are used for time to failure definition.

Various approaches have been proposed in the literature to reproduce the landslide behavior in terms of displacement for landslides which are already in an active state or for which displacement data are available for calibration. Some approaches introduce the material viscosity to reproduce the slow motion of the landslide when the driving factor is the fluctuation of the ground water table. Another strategy consists in using numerical methods in which the material strength reduction is introduced. In other cases more sophisticated constitutive models are employed to reproduce the material behavior.

In this work, we propose an extension of a simple one dimensional mathematical model which reproduces the post failure behavior considering the landslide as an assembly of blocks interacting between each other and moving along the bedrock. In particular, the model takes into account the shear band mechanical behavior by means of a viscous-plastic model based on the Perzyna’s approach with strain-hardening. The interactions between blocks are modelled by formulating an interaction law which takes into consideration also the tangential effects due to friction along the lateral block boundaries. The forcing factors can be the piezometric level oscillation, the seismic shaking and the oscillation of external water reservoir level.

To validate the mathematical model the numerical results are compared with the Little Chief Landslide located in the North Western Canada along the upper Columbia River valley. The landslide involves a mass of about 800 million of m3 with the stable bedrock depth ranging between 100 and 300 meters. This is an extremely slow landslide which has been investigated since 1960’s and for which displacements, piezometric levels and their evaluation in time are available for long time out-wards allowing to test the model. The landslide shows a periodic trend for displacements with cyclic accelerations and stable creeping. This allows for the calibration of the model parameters.
Aerosol-cloud interactions as observed over Western Ghats, India
Authors: Pandithurai Govindan
Published: March 2020

Atmospheric aerosols have an important role in global climate and weather by scattering and absorbing incoming shortwave radiation and absorbing outgoing longwave radiation that influences the Earth’s radiation budget. The aerosol indirect effect (AIE)  on the cloud microphysical properties has been studied over a high altitude site, Mahabaleshwar (17.92˚ N, 73.66˚ E; 1380m a.m.s.l.), Maharashtra, India, using ground-based in-situ measurements during monsoon season (June - August) of 2017. The AIE was estimated using cloud droplets number concentration (AIEn) and cloud droplet effective radius (AIEs) at different fixed liquid water contents (LWC). The AIE was varying in the range 0.01 – 0.13 when LWC was varying from 0.04 – 0.26 gm-3. The maximum values of AIEn and AIEs (0.125 and 0.119) were found at the lower LWC bin (0.06 - 0.07 gm-3). The calculated values of AIEn and AIEs showed that the values of AIEn were overestimated due to the dispersion effect. The maximum dispersion offset observed was 17.4% at LWC bin 0.16 – 0.17 gm-3. After dispersion correction, the offset was reduced and AIEn became close to AIEs. So dispersion correction is necessary for the correct estimation of AIE using cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). For the first time in India, cloud droplets are classified into smaller and medium size droplets to study their relative dispersion and their contribution to the total dispersion of cloud droplet size distribution. The contribution of smaller and medium-size droplets on dispersion at a lower and higher LWC region was studied. In lower LWC (high AIE), the concentration of smaller size droplets are higher (71%) than medium size droplets, but medium size droplets are the major contributor (61%)  of dispersion compared to the contribution by smaller size droplets. When LWC is higher (low AIE), the number concentration of smaller size droplets was reduced and the concentration of medium size droplets increased, compared to the case of lower LWC. However, the dispersion contribution by smaller size droplets was increased and the dispersion contribution by medium size droplets was reduced. An inverse relation between CDNC at a particular size class (small/medium) and their contribution to dispersion in CDSD was observed. 
The Rapid Uncertainty Prediction of the Ocean-Acoustic Coupled Model
Authors: Cui Baolong , Guo Wuhong
Published: March 2020

Focusing on the rapid prediction of acoustic field uncertainty in environment with temporal and spatial sound speed perturbation, evolvement of sound speed structure over time is predicted based on the ocean-acoustic coupled model to obtain the uncertainty distribution of the vertical structure of sound speed. Further, a method combining  the arbitrary polynomial chaos expansion with the empirical orthogonal function is proposed to reduce the dimensionality of uncertain parameters and to obtain the uncertainty distribution of the acoustic field. Simulations have shown that the computational complexity can be reduced by 2 orders of magnitude compared to the conventional polynomial chaos expansion while ensures the same precision. Moreover, the computational complexity is not influenced by the complexity of the sound speed profile. The acoustic field and uncertainty predicted in uncertain environment by proposed method also have been tested with the experimental data.
The impact of glaciers on the long-term hydrology of a high-elevation Andean catchment
Authors: McCarthy Michael , Burger Flavia , Ayala Alvaro , Fugger Stefan , Shaw Thomas E , Miles Evan , MacDonell Shelley , Bhattacharya Atanu , Bolch Tobias , McPhee James , Pellicciotti Francesca
Published: March 2020

The Andean cryosphere is a vital water resource for downstream populations. In recent years, it has been in steep decline as a whole, but shown strong spatio-temporal variability due to climatic events such as the current mega drought in central Chile. Glacio-hydrological models are necessary to understand and predict changes in water availability as a result of changes to the cryosphere. However, due to a lack of data for initialisation, forcing, calibration and validation, they are rarely used, especially in the Andes, for periods longer than a few years or decades. While useful insights can be gained from short-term modelling, there is a gap in our understanding of how glaciers impact hydrology on longer timescales, which may prevent local communities and governments from achieving effective planning and mitigation. Here we use the glacio-hydrological model TOPKAPI-ETH – initialised, forced, calibrated and validated using unique and extensive field and remote sensing datasets – to investigate glacier contributions to the streamflow of the high-elevation Rio Yeso catchment, Chile, over the past 50 years. We focus in particular on: 1) fluctuations in glacier surface mass balance and runoff and associated climatic variability; 2) if peak water has already occurred and when; 3) the effect of supraglacial debris cover on seasonal and long-term hydrographs. We offer insights into some of the challenges of running glacio-hydrological models on longer timescales and discuss the implications of our findings in the context of a shrinking Andean cryosphere.
In situ verification of refined predicted vertical gravity gradients on Etna
Authors: Vajda Peter , Zahorec Pavol , Papčo Juraj , Cantarero Massimo , Greco Filippo , Carbone Daniele
Published: March 2020

In situ values of vertical gradients of gravity (VGGs) are often needed when compiling residual spatiotemporal gravity changes that are interpreted in volcanic areas with the objective of drawing inferences about sources of volcanic unrest or pending eruptions. VGG values are seldom acquired by in situ observations. Their availability in 4D volcano-microgravimetric surveys and studies can be mediated by predicting the VGGs based on high resolution high accuracy DEMs and modelling the topographic component (constituent) of the VGG. Based on a modelling effort and in situ verification of VGG predicted on Etna in the summit craters area, on the north-east rift and on benchmarks of the monitoring network covering the volcano in a wider context, we learned that the VGG prediction can be improved by using drone-borne photogrammetry with GNSS ground control to produce a finer DEM in the closest vicinity of the VGG point (benchmark or field point) with resolution higher than the available high-resolution LiDAR-derived DEM, and using detailed modeling of gravity effect (on VGG) of anthropogenic objects such as walls and buildings adjacent to the VGG points. In this poster we present the methods used in the refined VGG prediction and the results of the verification of VGGs predicted on Etna.
LLSVPs of primordial origin: Implications for the evolution of plate tectonics
Authors: Hellenkamp Philipp , Stein Claudia , Hansen Ulrich
Published: March 2020

Early periods of Earth's history are of great interest for the evolution of plate tectonics. For instance, neither the formation of lithospheric plates nor the nature of Archean plate tectonics is well known. As a remnant of the magma ocean period, a compositionally dense layer at the core-mantle boundary is assumed to interact with the convective flow of the Earth's mantle forming todays LLSVPs. Since plate motions are strongly coupled to the convection of mantle material, stabilizing effects of compositionally dense material have a profound impact on mantle convection and plate tectonics and will be of major importance for its evolution.
To investigate the influence of a dense basal layer, we use a numerical approach employing thermo-chemical mantle convection models with self-consistent plate generation. Considering different possible scenarios of the post magma ocean period we analyze the influence of different parameters, i.e. the density contrast between the dense basal material and the ambient mantle and the volume of the enriched layer.
Generally we observe that a stagnant lid forms which is initially mobilized episodically before turning to a permanently mobile surface. However, the temporal evolution of the episodic stage is considerably altered due to the presence of dense basal material. The time when an episode occurs, is determined by the mechanism which induces this mobilization. The mechanism itself is controlled by the density and volume of the enriched layer. Therefore, we distinguish between four different initiation mechanisms, which occur for different configurations of the density and volume of enriched material.
Implementation of NEMO v4.0.1 as ocean component for the regional climate modeling framework
Authors: Abalichin Janna , Ehlers Birte-Marie , Janssen Frank
Published: March 2020

The ‘German Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change’ (DAS) provides the political framework to climate change mitigation and adaptation in Germany. The associated ‘Adaption Action Plan’ envisages the establishment of an operational forecasting and projection service for climate, extreme weather and coastal and inland waterbodies. This service is intended to make use of a regional climate modeling framework, with NEMO v4.0.(1) as the ocean component. The atmospheric component will be provided by the German Weather Service (either the current weather forecasting model ICON or COSMO will be used) and will be coupled to NEMO after testing and calibration of NEMO on the regional scale.

The area of interest includes besides the North Sea and the Baltic Sea the entire North-West-Shelf to take into account cross-shelf transport, the water exchange between North Sea and Baltic Sea and the impact of North Atlantic weather systems on the internal dynamics of the seas. One focus area will be German Bight, well known for its large tidal flats, which make wetting & drying a desirable model feature, which will be tested in future. The used/implemented bathymetry includes the up to date measurements of the sea floor from the EMODNET network.

To achieve a proper description of the dynamics in this region the model has to be calibrated with regard to the timing and amplitude of the water levels in the coastal waters, the water inflow through the Danish straits, the thermal stratification as well as the seasonality and thickness of the sea ice in the Northern Baltic Sea.

These efforts are carried out in the pilot project ‘Projection Service for Waterways and Shipping’ (ProWaS).
Seismo-ionospheric precursors of the 14 November 2019 M7.1 Indonesia Earthquake detected by FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2
Authors: Liu Jann-Yenq , Lin Chi-Yen , Chang Fu-Yuan , Chen Yuh-Ing
Published: March 2020

FORMOSAT-7/COSMIC-2 (F7/C2), with the mission orbit of 550 km altitude, 24-deg inclination, and a period of 97 minutes, was launched on 25 June 2019.  Tri-GNSS Radio occultation System (TGRS), Ion Velocity Meter (IVM), and RF beacon onboard F7/C2 six small satellites allow scientists to observe the plasma structure and dynamics in the mid-latitude, low-latitude, and equatorial ionosphere in detail.  F7/C2 TGRS sounds ionospheric RO (radio occultation) electron density profiles, while F7/C2 IVM probes the ion density, ion temperature, and ion velocity at the satellite altitude.  The F7/C2 electron density profiles and the ion density, ion temperature, and ion velocity, as well as the global ionospheric map (GIM) of the total electron content (TEC) derived from global ground-based GPS receivers are used to detect seismo-ionospheric precursors (SIPs) of the 14 November 2019 M7.1 Indonesia Earthquake.  The GIM TEC and F7/C2 RO NmF2 significantly increase specifically over the epicenter on 25-26 October, which indicates SIPs of the 14 November 2019 M7.1 Indonesia Earthquake being detected.  The F7/C2 RO electron density profiles upward motions suggest that the eastward electric fields have been enhanced during the SIP days of the 2019 M7.1 Indonesia earthquake.  The seismo-generated electric fields of the 2019 M7.1 Indonesia earthquake are 0.34-0.64 mV/m eastward.  The results demonstrate that F7/C2 can be employed to detect SIPs in the ionospheric plasma, which shall shed some light on earthquake prediction/forecast.
Robust Decision-Making for Groundwater Sustainability: Exploring Trade-Offs between Agricultural Production, Water Security, Energy Use and Sustainability
Authors: Escriva-Bou Alvar , Medellín-Azuara Josué
Published: March 2020

California’s San Joaquin Valley is home to more than four million people, half of the state agricultural output, and most of its critically overdrafted groundwater basins. The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act of 2014 (SGMA) requires to bring groundwater basins into balance by 2040. To achieve sustainability more than half million acres of farmland (~10% of current acreage in the valley) might need to be permanently retired of production.

Given the magnitude of the problem, local agencies are especially sensitive to developing plans that minimize the potential economic losses and risks of the transition to sustainable groundwater use. On the other side, groundwater depletion cause many impacts: puts at risk thousands of drinking water wells, results in significant economic impacts on infrastructure given the associated subsidence, and increases energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, among others.

However, planning for groundwater sustainability is challenging. The plans have to deal with some inherent uncertainties associated to modelling estimates of groundwater flows, hydrologic variability, and the impacts of a changing climate in the human-natural system.

To help inform stakeholders and policy-makers, we develop a support tool to improve decision-making under uncertainty that analyzes the trade-offs between groundwater operation rules, agricultural production, drinking water wells at risk, energy use, and sustainable groundwater levels. To do that we propose a framework that links a hydrologic model, a groundwater model, and an agricultural production model based on a positive mathematical programming approach, and two ancillary models that obtain wells at risk and energy use based on resulting groundwater levels. We then simulate different groundwater operation rules, and for each rule, we perform a Monte Carlo analysis with synthetic future scenarios, obtaining the performance of the simulated rules under uncertainty. We apply this framework in each of California’s San Joaquin Valley regions.

The results of the support tool show clearly the trade-offs between agricultural economic output, wells at risk and energy use. More specifically, dynamic rules that adapt groundwater use to climatic conditions and aquifer levels perform better in most of the assessed objectives than rigid rules. This support tool show great promise to better inform decision-making when multiple objectives and trade-offs are under consideration, as it is in California’s San Joaquin Valley, but also might be useful in many other regions facing groundwater depletion.
Changes in spring and Mei-yu extreme precipitation in the Western North Pacific and East Asia in the warmer climate in two high-resolution AGCMs
Authors: Chen Chao-An , Hsu Huang-Hsiung
Published: March 2020

In this study, we estimate the changes in extreme precipitation indices over the western North Pacific and East Asia region (WNP-EA) during the spring and Mei-yu seasons in the warmer climate. Our analyses are based on two high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model simulations. The high-resolution atmospheric Model (HiRAM) was used in a series of simulations, which were forced by 4 sets of sea surface temperature (SST) changes under Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario. The Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF) consists of global warming simulation outputs from MRI-AGCM3.2 with large ensemble members and multiple SST warming scenarios.

In the spring season, the changes in the spatial pattern of SDII, RX1day, and PR99 demonstrate greater enhancement over the northern flank of the climatological rainy region in both HiRAM and d4PDF, implying a northward extension of spring rain band. Besides, the changes in probability distribution display a shifting tendency that heavier extreme events occur more frequently in the warmer climate. The above changes are larger than the internal variability and uncertainty associated with SST warming patterns, indicating the robustness of the projected enhancement in precipitation intensity in the WNP-EA region. The spatial pattern for changes in CDD and total rainfall occurrence are less consistent between two datasets. In the Mei-yu season, the tendency toward more frequent extreme events in the probability distributions are consistently found in HiRAM and d4PDF. However, the changes in the spatial pattern of all indices are less consistent between HiRAM and d4PDF, implying larger uncertainty in the projection of extreme precipitation in the Mei-yu period in the warmer climate.
GIMO – a new geospatial tool for On-site Inspection data collection and techniques integration
Authors: Haquin Gerade Gustavo , Labak Peter , Rowlands Aled , Steric Nenad , Shabelnyk Oleksandr , Ahlander Magnus , Lobo Alicia
Published: March 2020

An on-site inspection (OSI) is conducted to clarify whether a nuclear weapon test explosion or any other nuclear explosion has been carried out in violation of the Treaty. The conduct of inspection activities requires an approach that takes into account the operational, technical and time constraints specified in the Treaty. A systematic approach was developed, namely, the information-led search logic for the inspection team (IT) to function effectively. The core of the search logic is inspection data acquired. The realization of the search logic is the Inspection Team Functionality (ITF) which its essential element is having the most updated inspection data readily available to inspectors to facilitate the planning, processing and reporting.

To facilitate the work of an IT, the Provisional Technical Secretariat launched a project to develop a map centric tool to support the IT. The Geospatial Information Management system for On-site inspections (GIMO), supports decision-making and facilitates the progress of an inspection and not hinder it in anyway. At its core is the facilitation of the ITF concept and chain of custody of samples and electronic media. It is a single tool for planning inspection activities, managing data collection in the field, integration of data generated by the implementation of OSI techniques and reporting. Information security, chain of custody and confidentiality requirements are applied in GIMO following the need-to-know principle. GIMO, 3D geospatially centric software, has no software dependencies outside the internal local area network as required by the Treaty. The modular nature of GIMO means that additional functionality can be embedded as and when needed.
Eu anomaly- reliability of the proxy in inferring source composition of clastic Sedimentary rocks: A case study from western Dharwar craton, Karnataka, India
Authors: Mitra Anirban , Dey Sukanta
Published: March 2020

Use of trace and rare earth element concentration of terrigenous sedimentary rocks to deduce the composition of their source rocks in the hinterland is a very common and efficient practice. The results of geochemical analysis of the metaquartzarenites located at the basal part of Bababudan and Sigegudda belt, late Archean greenstone sequences of western Dharwar craton show that the sediments were most possibly supplied from Paleo to Mesoarchean granitoids of western Dharwar Craton. Rare earth element patterns of these basal quartzites display fractionated REE pattern in variable degree (LaN/YbN =1.47-10.63) with moderate to highly fractionated LREE (LaN/SmN=2.67-8.93) and nearly flat to slighly elevated HREE (GdN/ YbN=0.62-1.29) and a significant Eu negative anomaly (avg. Eu/Eu*=0.67). In general, presence of negative Eu anomaly in clastic rocks reflect the widespread occurrence of granitic rocks in the source area, which possess negative Eu anomaly. On the other hand, mechanical enrichment of zircon (having negative Eu anomaly, high HREE concentration and low LaN/YbN), if present, will hamper the whole REE pattern of the sediments and necessarily, do not actually mimic the source composition. Here, in our study, the Th/Sc vs Zr/Sc diagram show mineral Zircon has been concentrated by mechanical concentration in the sedimentary rocks. Few quartzite samples which have high Zr content typically exhibit low LaN/YbN values, reflecting pivotal role of mineral zircon in controlling the REE pattern of the sediments. Hence, in this case, we should be cautious in interpreting of the Eu negative anomaly of the basal quartzites for meticulously identifying their source rock composition. More geochemical and other analytical approaches are required in this regard.
Constraining the dynamics of the present-day Alps with 3D geodynamic inverse models - model version 0.2
Authors: Reuber Georg , El-Sharkawy Amr , Paffrath Marcel , Ebbing Jörg , Friederich Wolfgang , Meier Thomas , Kaus Boris
Published: March 2020

The ongoing formation of the alpine mountain belt is a major indicator of the active geological processes in the Mediterranean that for example causes volcanism in Italy as well as considerable hazard. To understand this complex system the European project AlpArray, with the German contribution 4D-MB, was funded in order to investigate the structure, dynamics and geology of the alpine area in more detail and through all scales. We focus on the large scale geodynamic processes that drive this complex system of multiple subduction zones, ranging from the surface to the mantle.

Here, preliminary geodynamic modeling results will be presented, which are based on recent seismic imaging of the AlpArray target area. The model has been extended to a larger depth and the geometries of the slabs have been adopted. Several instantaneous forward simulations will be presented that aim to reproduce the major present day GPS velocity patterns. Additionally, the fit to the data is refined using a steepest descent adjoint gradient based inverse technique. These gradients can also be used to highlight the pointwise sensitivity of the surface velocity to the material parameters at depth. In order to be able to compare the modeling results to additional observations a framework is presented on how seismic anisotropy can be calculated with the geodynamic modeling code LaMEM (Kaus et al., 2016).

 

This abstract is in co-operation with the whole AlpArray working group.
Water resources management of coastal semi-arid environments using Managed Aquifer Recharge and participatory modelling approaches.
Authors: Kallioras Andreas , Chrysanthopoulos Efthymios , Mitropapas Anastasios , Floros Epaminondas , Nalbadi Sofia , Seferou Paraskevi , Pouliaris Christos , Markantonis Konstantinos
Published: March 2020

Groundwater is a limited resource in coastal hydrogeological systems, especially in semi-arid environments where the irrigation demands are very high. Management of such hydrosystems is a very challenging process; while water conflict between different users as well as climate change conditions are magnifying this problem.

Managed aquifer recharge – storing water in aquifers during times of excess – is considered as a sound engineering technique and a key strategy to support groundwater resources in such hydrologically sensitive regions by providing intermediate storage, bridging the gap between water demand and availability. In addition to the above, innovative modelling techniques that apply participatory approaches can be proved a valuable supporting tool for the management of groundwater resources within an optimized manner.

The coastal field of Argolis (S. Greece) is used as a reference site to illustrate the above, where Managed Aquifer Recharge is applied on a full-scale mode since 1990, using karst groundwater as a recharge water source. The study area involves an extended and complex water infrastructure systems that includes: (a) a main intake structure -a submarine dam exploiting a system of submarine karstic springs-; (b) a conveyance system -mainly open canal structures- that assures the transport of water from the main intake structure and main pumping station up to the agricultural area; and (c) a cluster of Managed Aquifer Recharge facilities that divert water towards the subsurface either through deep groundwater wells or infiltration ponds at selected parts of the aquifer.     

This research presents the results of hydro‐environmental modelling activities of Managed Aquifer Recharge and the preliminary work on participatory driven water resources modelling scenarios. This study is envisaged to contribute in the identification and valuation of socio‐economic and environmental processes and linkages of groundwater uses and services.