bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Cultural Capital, Gender and Intergenerational Educational Mobility in Post-Communist Space
Authors: Maslauskaite Ausra
Published: January 2021

Post-communist transition in Eastern Europe has affected social stratification and mobility. There is an argument that transition undermined the role of parental cultural capital and increased the importance of parental economic capital in determining the educational mobility of children. In this paper, we examine whether the parental cultural capital has played a role in educational mobility of cohorts born in 1970–1984 and what has been the contribution of the different states of cultural capital. We also consider the gender heterogeneity in the transmission of educational advantage. The study focuses on one country of Eastern Europe—Lithuania, which underwent the transition to a radical neo-liberal form of capitalism. Using data from the Families and Inequalities Survey of 2019, we apply the descriptive and ordinal regression analysis. The results indicate intergenerational educational upward mobility for women. All states of parental cultural capital (objectified, embodied, institutionalized) are relevant for the educational attainment of the transitional cohort. The effects are more pronounced for women, at least in relation to some states of parental cultural capital. On a more general level, the findings imply that the intergenerational reproduction of educational attainment was not substantially altered by the transition, at least during its initial decades.
The Effects of Open Space on Reducing Workplace Stress: Case Study of Business Park in the Post-Socialist Urban Setting
Authors: Maric Jelena , Aleksandra Djukic , Antonic Branislav , Furundzic Danilo , Parezanin Vladimir
Published: January 2021

Working people spend around 54% of their waking hours at a workplace, according to recent statistics. Work-related stress is unavoidable, and it can damage the health of employees and affect business performance. In this paper, we argue that open space inside the workplace environment can have a positive influence on reducing overall stress levels in all the categories of users. To our knowledge, there is a significant lack of research considering specific business districts and the gated complexes called business parks, especially in post-socialist Eastern European cities, where there they are still a novelty. Empirical research in this study is on the single case study of Business Park “Airport city” in Belgrade, Serbia. Its main focus is on the survey conducted with 235 participants based on a questionnaire, which examines the relation between workplace stress and workplace environments. The findings from the questionnaire show that the frequency, duration, and activity of open space usage influence the stress levels of employees in this specific workplace, while it is not visible relating to their age and gender. Additionally, final implications suggest that improved open space, such as well-expected greenery, but also the urban design non-associative to workspace and the socialization and exercise amenities customized for frequent and short work breaks, can facilitate the overall well-being of employees. They are innovative elements in relatively underdeveloped research on stress measures with open space usage characteristics in the specific (gated) workplace setting.
Modeling the Modal Shift towards a More Sustainable Transport by Stated Preference in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Authors: Youssef Zaher , Alshuwaikhat Habib , Reza Imran
Published: January 2021

The need to gain a comprehensive understanding of road travelers’ choice of mode and their perceptions of using sustainable urban mobility modes have evolved to shape the form of future transport planning and policymaking. To combat the concern of growing traffic congestion in Riyadh City, the government of Saudi Arabia designed and introduced a sustainable public transport project named “Riyadh Metro”. This study explores the potential commuters’ perception towards the Metro services and the factors that limit their propensity to use Metro and understand the tradeoffs that the individuals make when they are faced with a combination of mode characteristics (e.g., travel time, price, walking time). The stated preferences experiment was conducted on a sample from the Riyadh neighborhood by structured interviews. A discrete choice model based on binary logistic regression has been developed. The coefficient of travel attribute: travel time, fuel cost, Metro fare, and walking time was found to be statistically significant with a different effect on mode choice. The elasticity of the coefficient showed that an increase in the fuel price by 10% would increase the metro ridership by 5.3% and reduce car dependency. Decreasing the walking time by 5 min to the metro station will increase the metro ridership by 22%. Furthermore, the study revealed that implementing a 1 SAR/hour parking charge will decrease car dependency by 14%. Increase Metro fare by 10% will decrease Metro ridership by 6.9%. The socioeconomic factors coefficient shows a marginal effect on the choice decision of passengers.
Semantic Analysis of Cultural Heritage News Propagation in Social Media: Assessing the Role of Media and Journalists in the Era of Big Data
Authors: Maniou Theodora A.
Published: January 2021

In the era of big data, within the intense environment of social media, the effective communication of cultural heritage initiatives is considered of equal or—in some cases—even greater importance than heritage data themselves. Media and journalists play a critical and in some cases conflicting role in audience engagement and the sustainable promotion of cultural heritage narratives within the social media environment. The aim of this study was to assess the role of media and journalists in propagating cultural heritage news through social media platforms, and the narratives they tend to create in the digital public sphere. A qualitative approach is employed as a means of examining in-depth specific narratives, their meaning(s) and connotation(s), using semantic analysis.
Evaluation of Sustainability of Irrigated Crops in Arid Regions, China
Authors: Fan Fan , Li Bei , Zhang Weifeng , Porter John R. , Zhang Fusuo
Published: January 2021

Ensuring national food security amidst ongoing economic development whilst both protecting the environment and reducing the dependence on fossil fuels are significant challenges for Chinese sustainable development. The main objectives of this study were to reveal irrigated crop (wheat, maize, and sunflower) performance in terms of energy, economic, and environmental aspects in China’s largest designed irrigation area, Hetao irrigation district (HID), and to evaluate agricultural suitability based on plant structure. An integrated indicator and comprehensively assessment method were used to evaluate the above objectives based on the results from in-person surveys. The results show that maize exhibits the best overall performance compared to two other major crops (wheat and sunflower), which supports the government policy of adjust and optimize the planting structure program (AOPST), an effective way to achieve the multiple-objectives for sustainable agricultural development. However, reducing fertilizer remains a more critical factor than AOPST. These study results provide useful guidance for policy-makers and relevant stake-holders both in a regional context for the HID and at the global agricultural governance and management level.
Multiple Attribute Decision Making Algorithm via Picture Fuzzy Nano Topological Spaces
Authors: Alshammari Ibtesam , Mani Parimala , Ozel Cenap , Garg Harish
Published: January 2021

Picture fuzzy nano topological spaces is an extension of intuitionistic fuzzy nano topological spaces. Every decision in life ends with an answer such as yes or no, or true or false, but we have an another component called abstain, which we have not yet considered. This work is a gateway to study such a problem. This paper motivates an enquiry of the third component—abstain—in practical problems. The aim of this paper is to investigate the contemporary notion of picture fuzzy nano topological spaces and explore some of its properties. The stated properties are quantified with numerical data. Furthermore, an algorithm for Multiple Attribute Decision-Making (MADM) with an application regarding the file selection of building material under uncertainty by using picture fuzzy nano topological spaces is developed. As a practical problem, a comparison table is presented to show the difference between the novel concept and the existing methods.
Interplay of Nutrients, Temperature, and Competition of Native and Alien Cyanobacteria Species Growth and Cyanotoxin Production in Temperate Lakes
Authors: Savadova-Ratkus Ksenija , Mazur-Marzec Hanna , Karosienė Jūratė , Kasperovičienė Jūratė , Paškauskas Ričardas , Vitonytė Irma , Koreivienė Judita
Published: January 2021

Global warming and eutrophication contribute to formation of HABs and distribution of alien cyanobacteria northward. The current study assessed how alien to Europe Sphaerospermopsis aphanizomenoides and Chrysosporum bergii will co-occur with dominant native Planktothrix agardhii and Aphanizomenon gracile species under changing conditions in temperate freshwaters. The experiments were carried out to examine the effect of nutrients and temperature on the growth rate of cyanobacteria, production of cyanotoxins, and interspecies competition. The highest growth rate was determined for A. gracile (0.43 day−1) and S. aphanizomenoides (0.40 day−1) strains at all the tested nutrient concentrations (IP and IN were significant factors). S. aphanizomenoides adapted to the wide range of nutrient concentrations and temperature due to high species ecological plasticity; however, A. gracile was able to suppress its dominance under changing conditions. Regularity between tested variables and STX concentration in A. gracile was not found, but IP concentration negatively correlated with the amount of dmMC-RR and other non-ribosomal peptides (NRPs) in P. agardhii strains. The relative concentration of NRPs in nontoxic P. agardhii strain was up to 3-fold higher than in MC-producing strain. Our study indicated that nutrients, temperature, and species had significant effects on interspecies competition. A. gracile had a negative effect on biomass of both alien species and P. agardhii.
Efficient Aflatoxin B1 Sequestration by Yeast Cell Wall Extract and Hydrated Sodium Calcium Aluminosilicate Evaluated Using a Multimodal In-Vitro and Ex-Vivo Methodology
Authors: Yiannikouris Alexandros , Apajalahti Juha , Kettunen Hannele , Ojanperä Suvi , Bell Andrew N. W. , Keegan Jason D. , Moran Colm A.
Published: January 2021

In this work, adsorption of the carcinogenic mycotoxin aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) by two sequestrants—a yeast cell wall-based adsorbent (YCW) and a hydrated sodium calcium aluminosilicate (HSCAS)—was studied across four laboratory models: (1) an in vitro model from a reference method was employed to quantify the sorption capabilities of both sequestrants under buffer conditions at two pH values using liquid chromatography with fluorescence detection (LC-FLD); (2) in a second in vitro model, the influence of the upper gastrointestinal environment on the mycotoxin sorption capacity of the same two sequestrants was studied using a chronic AFB1 level commonly encountered in the field (10 µg/L and in the presence of feed); (3) the third model used a novel ex vivo approach to measure the absorption of 3H-labelled AFB1 in the intestinal tissue and the ability of the sequestrants to offset this process; and (4) a second previously developed ex vivo model readapted to AFB1 was used to measure the transfer of 3H-labelled AFB1 through live intestinal tissue, and the influence of sequestrants on its bioavailability by means of an Ussing chamber system. Despite some sorption effects caused by the feed itself studied in the second model, both in vitro models established that the adsorption capacity of both YCW and HSCAS is promoted at a low acidic pH. Ex vivo Models 3 and 4 showed that the same tested material formed a protective barrier on the epithelial mucosa and that they significantly reduced the transfer of AFB1 through live intestinal tissue. The results indicate that, by reducing the transmembrane transfer rate and reducing over 60% of the concentration of free AFB1, both products are able to significantly limit the bioavailability of AFB1. Moreover, there were limited differences between YCW and HSCAS in their sorption capacities. The inclusion of YCW in the dietary ration could have a positive influence in reducing AFB1′s physiological bioavailability.
Can Cyanobacterial Diversity in the Source Predict the Diversity in Sludge and the Risk of Toxin Release in a Drinking Water Treatment Plant?
Authors: Jalili Farhad , Trigui Hana , Guerra Maldonado Juan Francisco , Dorner Sarah , Zamyadi Arash , Shapiro B. Jesse , Terrat Yves , Fortin Nathalie , Sauvé Sébastien , Prévost Michèle
Published: January 2021

Conventional processes (coagulation, flocculation, sedimentation, and filtration) are widely used in drinking water treatment plants and are considered a good treatment strategy to eliminate cyanobacterial cells and cell-bound cyanotoxins. The diversity of cyanobacteria was investigated using taxonomic cell counts and shotgun metagenomics over two seasons in a drinking water treatment plant before, during, and after the bloom. Changes in the community structure over time at the phylum, genus, and species levels were monitored in samples retrieved from raw water (RW), sludge in the holding tank (ST), and sludge supernatant (SST). Aphanothece clathrata brevis, Microcystis aeruginosa, Dolichospermum spiroides, and Chroococcus minimus were predominant species detected in RW by taxonomic cell counts. Shotgun metagenomics revealed that Proteobacteria was the predominant phylum in RW before and after the cyanobacterial bloom. Taxonomic cell counts and shotgun metagenomic showed that the Dolichospermum bloom occurred inside the plant. Cyanobacteria and Bacteroidetes were the major bacterial phyla during the bloom. Shotgun metagenomics also showed that Synechococcus, Microcystis, and Dolichospermum were the predominant detected cyanobacterial genera in the samples. Conventional treatment removed more than 92% of cyanobacterial cells but led to cell accumulation in the sludge up to 31 times more than in the RW influx. Coagulation/sedimentation selectively removed more than 96% of Microcystis and Dolichospermum. Cyanobacterial community in the sludge varied from raw water to sludge during sludge storage (1–13 days). This variation was due to the selective removal of coagulation/sedimentation as well as the accumulation of captured cells over the period of storage time. However, the prediction of the cyanobacterial community composition in the SST remained a challenge. Among nutrient parameters, orthophosphate availability was related to community profile in RW samples, whereas communities in ST were influenced by total nitrogen, Kjeldahl nitrogen (N- Kjeldahl), total and particulate phosphorous, and total organic carbon (TOC). No trend was observed on the impact of nutrients on SST communities. This study profiled new health-related, environmental, and technical challenges for the production of drinking water due to the complex fate of cyanobacteria in cyanobacteria-laden sludge and supernatant.
A Systematic Review of the State of Cyber-Security in Water Systems
Authors: Tuptuk Nilufer , Hazell Peter , Watson Jeremy , Hailes Stephen
Published: January 2021

Critical infrastructure systems are evolving from isolated bespoke systems to those that use general-purpose computing hosts, IoT sensors, edge computing, wireless networks and artificial intelligence. Although this move improves sensing and control capacity and gives better integration with business requirements, it also increases the scope for attack from malicious entities that intend to conduct industrial espionage and sabotage against these systems. In this paper, we review the state of the cyber-security research that is focused on improving the security of the water supply and wastewater collection and treatment systems that form part of the critical national infrastructure. We cover the publication statistics of the research in this area, the aspects of security being addressed, and future work required to achieve better cyber-security for water systems.
Assessment of the Dissimilarities of EDI and SPI Measures for Drought Determination in South Africa
Authors: Adisa Omolola M. , Masinde Muthoni , Botai Joel O.
Published: January 2021

This study examines the (dis)similarity of two commonly used indices Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed over accumulation periods 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 12-month (hereafter SPI-1, SPI-3, SPI-6, and SPI-12, respectively) and Effective Drought Index (EDI). The analysis is based on two drought monitoring indicators (derived from SPI and EDI), namely, the Drought Duration (DD) and Drought Severity (DS) across the 93 South African Weather Service’s delineated rainfall districts over South Africa from 1980 to 2019. In the study, the Pearson correlation coefficient dissimilarity and periodogram dissimilarity estimates were used. The results indicate a positive correlation for the Pearson correlation coefficient dissimilarity and a positive value for periodogram of dissimilarity in both the DD and DS. With the Pearson correlation coefficient dissimilarity, the study demonstrates that the values of the SPI-1/EDI pair and the SPI-3/EDI pair exhibit the highest similar values for DD, while the SPI-6/EDI pair shows the highest similar values for DS. Moreover, dissimilarities are more obvious in SPI-12/EDI pair for DD and DS. When a periodogram of dissimilarity is used, the values of the SPI-1/EDI pair and SPI-6/EDI pair exhibit the highest similar values for DD, while SPI-1/EDI displayed the highest similar values for DS. Overall, the two measures show that the highest similarity is obtained in the SPI-1/EDI pair for DS. The results obtainable in this study contribute towards an in-depth knowledge of deviation between the EDI and SPI values for South Africa, depicting that these two drought indices values are replaceable in some rainfall districts of South Africa for drought monitoring and prediction, and this is a step towards the selection of the appropriate drought indices.
Identification of Nitrate Sources in Rivers in a Complex Catchment Using a Dual Isotopic Approach
Authors: Xu Yunyun , Yuan Qiqi , Zhao Chunfa , Wang Lachun , Li Yuhua , Ma Xiaoxue , Guo Jiaxun , Yang Hong
Published: January 2021

Excessive nutrient input to surface water, including nitrate, exacerbates water eutrophication. Clarifying the proportions of different nitrate sources in the aquatic environment is critical for improving the polluted water. However, nitrate sources in river basins are very complex and not clearly understood. In this study, nitrogen concentrations and nitrate isotopic compositions were determined to estimate the spatiotemporal variation in nitrate sources in the Yuntaishan River basin, Nanjing, East China, from March 2019 to January 2020. The results showed that the concentrations of total nitrogen (TN), ammonium (NH4+-N), and nitrate (NO3−-N) changed in the ranges of 0.53–18.0 mg/L, 0.01–15.4 mg/L, and 0.06–9.3 mg/L, respectively, wherein NO3−-N was the main nitrogen form. Higher nitrogen concentrations appeared in winter and in the downstream parts of the river. In the entire river basin, the NO3−-N mainly originated from sewage (67%) and soil (26%), with clear spatial variations. NO3−-N in the Yunba sub-watershed was mainly derived from sewage (78%), which was higher than that in other tributaries, i.e., Shengli River (44%) and Yangshan River (49%). This was due to the fact that that Shengli and Yangshan sub-watersheds were covered by urban areas and were equipped with a complete sewage treatment system. In addition, the contributions of sewage to NO3−-N rose from 60% upstream to 86% downstream, suggesting the increasing influence of the point source of sewage. The results showed that 53% of NO3−-N in the basin outlet originated from the point source of sewage near the M4 site. Sewage contributed 75% of NO3−-N in the rainy season and 67% of NO3−-N in the dry season, suggesting the weakly temporal variation. Our results highlight the spatiotemporal variations in sources of NO3−-N. These results will aid in the development of measures needed to control nitrogen pollution in river basins.
Determination of Evaporative Fluxes Using a Bench-Scale Atmosphere Simulator
Authors: Suchan Jared , Azam Shahid
Published: January 2021

An accurate determination of evaporative fluxes is critical for efficient water management in semi-arid climates such as in the Canadian Prairies. The main achievements of this research are the design and operation of a bench-scale atmosphere simulator, performance evaluation using selected weather scenarios pertaining to regional atmospheric conditions, validation using established empirical correlations, and estimation of evaporation rates and the amount for a typical local water body. Results indicate that the measured data achieved the target values for the various parameters and the data were found to be stable during the 3-h test duration. The vapour flux was found to have large variation during summer (0.120 g∙s−1∙m−2 during the day and 0.047 g∙s−1∙m−2 at night), low variation during spring (0.116 g∙s−1∙m−2 during the day and 0.062 g∙s−1∙m−2 at night), and negligible change during fall (0.100 g∙s−1∙m−2 during the day and 0.076 g∙s−1∙m−2 at night). The measured vapour flux was generally within one standard deviation of the equality line when compared with that predicted by both the mass-transfer equations and the combination equations. The average evaporation ranged from 4 mm∙d−1 to 8 mm∙d−1 during the day and decreased to 1 mm∙d−1 to 3 mm∙d−1 at night. The 24-h evaporation was found to be 8 ± 1 mm∙d−1 from late April through late October. Likewise, the cumulative annual evaporation was found to be 1781 mm, of which 82% occurs during the day and 18% at night.
Exploring the Role of Reservoir Storage in Enhancing Resilience to Climate Change in Southern Europe
Authors: Granados Alfredo , Sordo-Ward Alvaro , Paredes-Beltrán Bolívar , Garrote Luis
Published: January 2021

Recent trends suggest that streamflow discharge is diminishing in many rivers of Southern Europe and that interannual variability is increasing. This threatens to aggravate water scarcity problems that periodically arise in this region, because both effects will deteriorate the performance of reservoirs, decreasing their reliable yield. Reservoir storage is the key infrastructure to overcome variability and to enhance water availability in semiarid climates. This paper presents an analysis of the role of reservoir storage in preserving water availability under climate change scenarios. The study is focused on 16 major Southern European basins. Potential water availability was calculated in these basins under current condition and for 35 different climatic projections for the period 2070–2100. The results show that the expected reduction of water availability is comparable to the decrease of the mean annual flow in basins with large storage capacity. For basins with small storage, the expected reduction of water availability is larger than the reduction of mean annual flow. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was carried out by replicating the analysis assuming variable reservoir volumes from 25% to 175% of current storage. The results show that increasing storage capacity attenuates the reduction of water availability and reduces its uncertainty under climate change projections. This feature would allow water managers to develop suitable policies to mitigate the impacts of climate change, thus enhancing the resilience of the system.
Dual Battery Control System of Lead Acid and Lithium Ferro Phosphate with Switching Technique
Authors: Nizam Muhammad , Maghfiroh Hari , Nur Kuncoro Fuad , Adriyanto Feri
Published: January 2021

The increase in electric vehicles needs to be supported by the existence of reliable energy storage devices. The battery, as an energy storage system, has its advantages and disadvantages. The combination of different battery types is chosen since the battery is one of the energy storage systems with mature technology and low life cycle cost. A solution that can be proposed to cover the weakness of each battery is the use of the Dual Battery System (DBS). In this project, a dual battery control system with a combination of Valve Regulated Lead Acid (VRLA) and Lithium Ferro Phosphate (LFP) batteries was developed using the switching method. Battery selection switching is determined by the specification and operational set point of the battery used. The experimental testing was carried out. The result of the research conducted showed that the current sensor accuracy was 83.75% and the voltage sensor accuracy was 94.25% while the current sensor precision value was 64.91% and the voltage sensor precision was 99.74%. The use of a dual battery system can save energy in a VLRA battery compare with a single VLRA battery by up to 68.62%, whereas in LFP battery by up to 29.48%. This means it gives the advantages of longer distances of traveling in electric vehicles.
Efektifitas Kombinasi Akupresure dan Minuman Jahe (Zingiber Officinale) terhadap Emesis Gravidarum di Desa Bandar Setia Kecamatan Percut Sei Tuan Kabupaten Deli Serdang
Authors: Ritonga Nikmah Jalilah , Shufyani Fahma , Br. Sembiring Elsaria
Published: January 2021

Emesis gravidarum is a common complaint made in young pregnancies. Preganancy causes hormonal changes in women due to an increase in estrogen, progesteron, and the realease of the placental chorionic gonodothropine hormone. Emesis gravidarum usually occurs in the morning, but there are those that arise at any time of the night. Feelings of nausea are caused by increased levels of the hormones estrogen an human chorionic gonadothropine (hCG) in the serum. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of giving a combination of acupressure and ginger drinks at Bandar Setia Village 2020. This type of research is quantitative research, using a quasy experiment design study with the design of Three-Groups Pretests-Posttest design control. The study population was pregnant women who experienced emesis gravidarum in Desa Bandar Setia. Sampling using Probability Sampling technique that is Simple Random sampling by determining the inclusion and exclusion criteria of 45 pregnant women who will be divided into three groups, 15 people for the experimental group who were given acupressure only, 15 people for the experimental group who were given ginger drinks only, and 15 experimental groups were given a combination of acupressure and ginger drink.The results of the study using Wilcoxon test obtained p-value = 0.000 <0.05. The conclusion is there is an effect on pregnant women who experience emesis gravidarum after being given a combination of acupressure and ginger drink.
Peramalan Harga Emas Saat Pandemi Covid-19 Menggunakan Model Hybrid Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average - Support Vector Regression
Authors: Purnama Drajat Indra
Published: January 2021

ABSTRAKInvestasi emas merupakan salah satu investasi yang menjadi favorit dimasa pandemi Covid 19 seperti sekarang ini. Hal ini dikarenakan harga emas yang nilainya relatif fluktuatif tetapi menunjukkan tren peningkatan. Investor dituntut pandai dalam berinvestasi emas, mampu memprediksi peluang dimasa yang akan datang. Salah satu model peramalan data deret waktu adalah model Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). Model ARIMA baik digunakan pada data yang berpola linear tetapi jika digunakan pada data data nonlinear keakuratannya menurun. Untuk mengatasi permasalahan data nonlinear dapat menggunakan model Support Vector Regression (SVR). Pengujian linearitas pada data harga emas menunjukkan adanya pola data linear dan nonlinear sekaligus sehingga digunakan kombinasi ARIMA dan SVR yaitu model hybrid ARIMA-SVR. Hasil peramalan menggunakan model hybrid ARIMA-SVR menunjukkan hasil lebih baik dibanding model ARIMA. Hal ini dibuktikan dengan nilai MAPE model hybrid ARIMA-SVR lebih kecil dibandingkan nilai MAPE model ARIMA. Nilai MAPE model hybrid ARIMA-SVR sebesar 0,355 pada data training dan 4,001 pada data testing, sedangkan nilai MAPE model ARIMA sebesar 0,903 pada data training dan 4,076 pada data testing.ABSTRACTGold investment is one of the favorite investments during the Covid 19 pandemic as it is today. This is because the price of gold is relatively volatile but shows an increasing trend. Investors are required to be smart in investing in gold, able to predict future opportunities. One of the time series data forecasting models is the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. The ARIMA model is good for use on linear patterned data but if it is used on nonlinear data the accuracy decreases. To solve the problem of nonlinear data, you can use the Support Vector Regression (SVR) model. The linearity test on the gold price data shows that there are linear and nonlinear data patterns at the same time so that a combination of ARIMA and SVR is used, namely the ARIMA-SVR hybrid model. Forecasting results using the ARIMA-SVR hybrid model show better results than the ARIMA model. This is evidenced by the MAPE value of the ARIMA-SVR hybrid model which is smaller than the MAPE value of the ARIMA model. The MAPE value of the ARIMA-SVR hybrid model is 0.355 on the training data and 4.001 on the testing data, while the MAPE value of the ARIMA model is 0.903 in the training data and 4.076 in the testing data.
Analisis Dinamik Model Transmisi COVID-19 dengan Melibatkan Intervensi Karantina
Authors: Resmawan Resmawan , Nuha Agusyarif Rezka , Yahya Lailany
Published: January 2021

ABSTRAKMakalah ini membahas dinamika transmisi COVID-19 dengan melibatkan intervensi karantina. Model dikonstruksi dengan melibatkan tiga kelas penyebab infeksi, yaitu kelas manusia terpapar, kelas manusia terinfeksi tanpa gejala klinis, dan kelas manusia terinfeksi disertai gejala klinis. Variabel yang merepresentasikan intervensi karantina untuk menekan pertumbuhan infeksi juga dipertimbangkan pada model. Selanjutnya, analisis model difokuskan pada eksistensi titik kesetimbangan dan simulasi numerik untuk menunjukkan dinamika populasi secara visual. Model yang dikonstruksi membentuk model SEAQIR yang memiliki dua titik kesetimbangan, yaitu titik kesetimbangan bebas penyakit dan titik kesetimbangan endemik. Analisis kestabilan menunjukkan bahwa titik kesetimbangan bebas penyakit bersifat stabil asimtotik lokal pada saat R01 dan tidak stabil pada saat R01. Simulasi numerik menunjukkan bahwa peningkatan intervensi berupa karantina dapat berkontribusi memperlambat transmisi COVID-19 sehingga diharapkan dapat mencegah terjadinya wabah pada populasi.ABSTRACTThis paper discusses the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission by involving quarantine interventions. The model was constructed by involving three classes of infectious causes, namely the exposed human class, asymptotically infected human class, and symptomatic infected human class. Variables were representing quarantine interventions to suppress infection growth were also considered in the model. Furthermore, model analysis is focused on the existence of equilibrium points and numerical simulations to visually showed population dynamics. The constructed model forms the SEAQIR model which has two equilibrium points, namely a disease-free equilibrium point and an endemic equilibrium point. The stability analysis showed that the disease-free equilibrium point was locally asymptotically stable at R01 and unstable at R01. Numerical simulations showed that increasing interventions in the form of quarantine could contribute to slowing the transmission of COVID-19 so that it is hoped that it can prevent outbreaks in the population.
Peramalan Nilai Tukar Petani Subsektor Peternakan Menggunakan Fuzzy Time Series Lee
Authors: Muhammad Mahadi , Wahyuningsih Sri , Siringoringo Meiliyani
Published: January 2021

ABSTRAKFuzzy time series (FTS) Lee adalah suatu metode peramalan yang digunakan ketika jumlah data historis yang tersedia sedikit, serta tidak mensyaratkan asumsi-asumsi tertentu yang harus terpenuhi. Metode ini menggunakan data historis berupa himpunan fuzzy yang berasal dari bilangan real atas himpunan semesta pada data aktual. FTS Lee adalah perkembangan dari FTS Song dan Chissom, FTS Cheng, serta FTS Chen. Pada penelitian ini dibahas penerapan FTS Lee pada data Nilai Tukar Petani Subsektor Peternakan (NTPT) di Kalimantan Timur. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah memperoleh hasil peramalan NTPT di Kalimantan Timur pada bulan Januari 2020 dengan menggunakan FTS Lee. Langkah awal dalam penelitian ini yaitu menentukan himpunan semesta pembicaraan, langkah kedua menentukan banyaknya himpunan fuzzy, langkah ketiga mendefinisikan derajat keanggotaan himpunan fuzzy terhadap  dan melakukan fuzzyfikasi pada data aktual, langkah keempat membuat fuzzy logical relationship, langkah kelima membuat fuzzy logical relationship group, langkah keenam melakukan defuzzyfikasi sehingga diperoleh hasil peramalan, serta dilanjutkan dengan menghitung nilai mean absolute percentage error. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa peramalan menggunakan FTS Lee pada bulan Januari 2020 adalah 110,25. Nilai mean absolute percentage error pada  hasil peramalan dengan menggunakan FTS Lee adalah sangat baik.  ABSTRACTLee’s Fuzzy time series (FTS) is a forecasting method that is used when the number of historical data that available was small and does not require certain assumptions to be fulfilled. This method uses historical data in the form of fuzzy sets derived from real numbers over the set of universes in the actual data. FTS Lee is a development of FTS Song and Chissom, FTS Cheng, and FTS Chen. This research discusses the application of FTS Lee to the Exchange Rate of Farmers Subsectors Farm (ERFSF) in Kalimantan Timur. The purpose of this study was to obtain the results of ERFSF forecasting in Kalimantan Timur in January 2020 using FTS Lee. The first step during research is to determine the set of speech universes, the second step is to determine the number of fuzzy sets, the third step is to define the degree of fuzzy association membership and fuzzification on the actual data, the fourth step is to create a fuzzy logical relationship, the fifth step is to create a fuzzy logical relationship group, the sixth step is to perform defuzzification in order to obtain forecasting results, and continue by calculating the mean absolute percentage error value. The results showed that forecasting using FTS Lee in January 2020 was 110,25. The mean absolute percentage error value in forecasting results using FTS Lee is very good.
Peramalan Gelombang Covid 19 Menggunakan Hybrid Nonlinear Regression Logistic – Double Exponential Smoothing di Indonesia dan Prancis
Authors: Ngurah Diksa I Gusti Bagus
Published: January 2021

ABSTRAKIndonesia dan Prancis adalah dua Negara yang mengalami Covid 19 dengan pola pergerakan kasus Covid 19 yang berbeda. Kondisi Indonesia masih mengalami siklus one wave namun Prancis sudah masuk pada pola second wave. Makna second wave adalah kondisi epidemi Covid 19 yang baru muncul setelah epidemi sebelumnya dianggap selesai. Dalam peramalan kasus Covid 19 baik itu terkait informasi puncak dari terjadinya kasus Covid 19 serta ramalan terkait akan berakhirnya pandemi kasus Covid 19 suatu negara merupakan hal penting bagi pemerintah suatu Negara. Model hybrid meningkatkan akurasi ramalan dibandingkan model time series yang dilakukan secara terpisah. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah melakukan peramalan kasus Covid 19 di Indonesia dan Prancis dengan menggunakan metode hybrid dan membandingkan dengan peramalan dengan salah satu metode tunggal. Metode yang digunakan adalah metode tunggal yaitu Nonlinear Regression Logistic dan metode Hybrid Nonlinear Regression Logistic–Double Eksponensial Smoothing. Hasilnya adalah model peramalan Hybrid Nonlinear Regression Logistic and Doubel Exponential Smoothing lebih bagus digunakan dalam peramalan kasus Covid 19 di Indonesia dan Prancis. Terlihat bahwa nilai MAPE model Hybrid Nonlinear Regression Logistic–Double Eksponensial Smoothing jauh lebih kecil dibandingkan model peramalan Nonlinear Regression Logistic. ABSTRACTIndonesia and France are two countries that have experienced Covid 19 with different patterns of movement of Covid 19 cases. Indonesia's condition is still experiencing a one wave cycle but France has entered into the second wave pattern. The meaning of the second wave is the condition of the Covid 19 epidemic which only emerged after the previous epidemic was considered over. In forecasting the Covid 19 case, whether it is related to the peak information on the occurrence of the Covid 19 case and predictions regarding the end of the pandemic of the Covid 19 case in a country, it is important for the government of a country. The hybrid model improves forecast accuracy compared to the time series model which is carried out separately. The purpose of this study is to forecast the cases of Covid 19 in Indonesia and France using the hybrid method and comparing with forecasting with one single method. The method used is a single method, namely Nonlinear Logistic Regression and Hybrid Nonlinear Regression Logistic-Double Exponential Smoothing methods. The result is that the Hybrid Nonlinear Regression Logistic and Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting model is better used in forecasting the Covid 19 cases in Indonesia and France. It can be seen that the MAPE value of the Hybrid Nonlinear Regression Logistic – Double Exponential Smoothing model is much smaller than the Nonlinear Regression Logistic forecasting model.
Studi Fenomenologis : Perilaku adaptif karyawan lembaga keuangan mikro dimasa pandemi
Authors: Wihara Dhiyan Septa
Published: January 2021

This study aims to examine and analyze in depth the adaptive behavior of employees of microfinance institutions, especially rural banks and cooperatives during the Covid-19 pandemic. This adaptive behavior is divided into 4, namely building communication with customers, getting used to new conditions, socializing and getting along with the community, continuing to move to meet targets. The phenomenological study is used because this data comes from the experience of participants who are currently active leaders in microfinance institutions. This study used 2 participants, namely the head of the BPR branch and the manager of a savings and loan cooperative, both of whom have decades of experience in microfinance institutions. The research findings show that the way to adapt in the midst of a pandemic to collect is by changing your appearance by not wearing uniforms and shoes when visiting customers. Then employees must also familiarize themselves with implementing the Covid protocol at work. The office provides hand washing facilities and handsanitazers for customers and employees, and this will have to be used later. Reporting on the results of performance limitations is carried out once a month but the policy for employees is focused on billing activities because it is to reduce risk.
ПСИХОЛОГО-ПЕДАГОГІЧНИЙ АСПЕКТ ФОРМУВАННЯ ПРОФЕСІЙНОЇ КОМПЕТЕНТНОСТІ МАЙБУТНІХ МЕНЕДЖЕРІВ ЗАСОБАМИ МЕРЕЖЕВИХ ТЕХНОЛОГІЙ
Authors: Березюк Тетяна
Published: January 2021

Автором розглянуто компетентнісний підхід у навчанні як ключовий компонент оцінки надання якісних освітніх послуг та формування висококваліфікованого фахівця. Охарактеризовано змістовне наповнення поняття «професійна компетентність», зазначено необхідні навики, якими повинен володіти спеціаліст. Обумовлено та перераховано ознаки готовності до професійної діяльності. Охарактеризовано принципи та етапи реалізації методики розвитку професійної компетенції. Детально описано роль інтерактивних технологій в формуванні професійної компетенції студентів. Зазначено важливість реалізації моделі передачі знань з використанням нових інформаційних технологій. Виявлено фактори, які потребують обліку при виборі педагогічної концепції підготовки майбутніх менеджерів із застосуванням засобів мережевих технологій. Охарактеризовано етапи реалізації професійного зростання майбутніх менеджерів. Зазначено важливість роботи над собою при збільшенні рівня професіоналізму. Вказано, що впровадження в навчальний процес системи управління навчальним контентом «MOODLE» сприяє оптимізації навчання студентів. Проведено дослідження ефективності впровадження систему управління освітнім контентом «MOODLE» серед студентів освітньо-кваліфікаційного напрямку «Менеджмент».
ВПЛИВ СТИЛЮ СІМЕЙНОГО ВИХОВАННЯ НА САМООЦІНКУ МОЛОДШИХ ШКОЛЯРІВ
Authors: Бортнік Наталія
Published: January 2021

Стаття вивчає вплив стилю сімейного виховання на формування самооцінки молодшого школяра. Особливу увагу приділено розгляду взаємозв'язку стилю сімейного виховання (та особистісних якостей батьків), та процесу формування особистості дитини, рівня його пристосованості, здатність до адаптації до умов соціального середовища. Автор розкриває особливості й прояви стилів сімейного виховання, проаналізовано наступні фактори, що впливають на вибір поведінкових стратегій батьків: насамперед тип темпераменту та традиції, в яких виховувались самі батьки. Проаналізовано існуючі стилі батьківського виховання: авторитетний: характеризується теплим емоційним прийняттям дитини і високим рівнем контролю з боку дорослих; авторитарний: характеризується високим рівнем вимогливості до дитини, покаранням невдач, жорстоким контролем, втручанням в особистий простір дитини, пригніченням індивідуальності дитини силою; індиферентний: характеризуються відсутністю теплоти в ставленні до дитини, зневажливим відношенням, ігноруванням його емоційних потреб; ліберальний: передбачає тактику невтручання, основу якої, складають байдужість і незацікавленість проблемами дитини. Розкрито особливості формування самооцінки в молодших школярів, насамперед, під впливом результатів навчальної діяльності, та прийняття референтних осіб. Визначено, на залежність вибору стилю сімейного виховання на формування самооцінки молодших школярів та особливостей поведінкових проявів індивіда. Зроблено висновки в контексті теми впливу стратегій сімейного виховання, що авторитетний стиль, провокує високу самооцінку, самоприйняття та самоконтроль індивіда; авторитарний стиль - низький рівень домагань та занижену самооцінку; індиферентний стиль – можливий розвиток у дітей емоційної відчуженості, тривожності, замкнутості і недовіри до оточуючих або висока сила волі, прояви творчого потенціалу, активність, просоціальність (як високий рівень компенсаторності особистості); ліберальний – високий рівень (неадекватність) самооцінки особистості. Подальший розгляд цієї проблеми вбачаємо в більш розгорнутому вивченні основних стилів сімейного виховання, та їх впливу на формування індивідуальних особистісних аспектів в цілому
ОСОБЕННОСТИ ЭМАНСИПАЦИИ СТУДЕНТОВ ОТ РОДИТЕЛЕЙ
Authors: Васильева Татьяна
Published: January 2021

В статье обсуждается процесс эмансипации как специфическая для юношеского возраста эмоционально-поведенческая реакция, выражающаяся в стремлении высвободиться из-под опеки родителей. Рассматривается специфика социальной ситуации развития студентов. Она выражается в стремлении молодых людей к автономии от родителей как проявления развивающейся идентичности и мировоззрения, и при этом сохранении зависимости от родительской семьи или других социальных институтов. Реакция эмансипации рассматривается как проявление кризисных процессов в развитии личности юноши, обнаруживающихся в отношениях с другими людьми. Выделяются следующие формы изучаемой реакции: эмоциональная эмансипация, проявляющаяся в стремлении молодых людей к большей эмоциональной близости не с родителями, а со сверстником или с представителем противоположного пола; нормативная эмансипация как стремление отвергнуть те нормы и ценности, которых придерживаются родители; поведенческая эмансипация, представляющая собой стремление молодого человека освободиться от контроля со стороны родителей. Реакция эмансипации обнаруживается в отношении студентов к участию родителей в конкретных сферах их жизни при решении различных проблем, а также в том, как они оценивают собственную инициативу в поддержании отношений с родителями. Выявлено, что все студенты соглашаются с определенной мерой участия родителей в их жизни. Большинству молодых людей свойственно оценивать активное стремление родителей участвовать в обсуждении и решении проблем своих детей как чрезмерное, то есть как вторжение в их личное пространство. Третья часть студентов оценивает активность родителей в решении их проблем как недостаточную. Выявлено, что юноши чаще, чем девушки, стремятся не привлекать родителей к решению своих проблем, а девушки чаще проявляют инициативу в поддержании отношений с родителями. Выявлены три типа отношений студентов к родителям: стремление студентов к автономии от родителей, стремление студентов к зависимости от родителей, амбивалентность в отношениях студентов с родителями. Доминирующим среди студентов является стремление к автономии: молодые люди рассматривают инициативность родителей как вторжение в личное пространство и при этом не хотели бы увеличивать собственную активность по обсуждению с родителями своих проблем. Третья часть студентов характеризуется стремлением к зависимости от родителей, что выражается в желании юношей и девушек решать свои проблемы с помощью родителей. Реже всего встречается амбивалентность в отношениях студентов с родителями: стремление молодых людей, с одной стороны, к автономии от родителей, а с другой – желание иметь с родителями более тесные отношения, чем они есть на данный момент.
ПСИХОЛОГІЧНИЙ АСПЕКТ СФОРМОВАНОСТІ ВІЗУАЛЬНОГО МИСЛЕННЯ У ШКОЛЯРІВ ПІДЛІТКОВОГО ВІКУ
Authors: Іванюта Ольга , Яницька Олена
Published: January 2021

У статті подано результати інтерпретації індивідуальних даних сформованості візуального мислення школярів підліткового віку методом визначення внутрішньо-групової норми. Співставлено результати дослідження, отримані за методикою Торренса і Равена, що дозволило визначити рівень розвитку візуального мислення кожного досліджуваного і виявити підлітків з низьким показником продуктивності візуальної мисленнєвої діяльності, що є надзвичайно важливим для впровадження технологій стимулювання візуального мислення підлітків.
ПСИХОЛОГІЧНИЙ АНАЛІЗ РЕГУЛЯЦІЇ ПРОФЕСІЙНОКОМУНІКАТИВНОГО ПОТЕНЦІАЛУ МАЙБУТНЬОГО ВЧИТЕЛЯ ЯК СУБ’ЄКТА ПЕДАГОГІЧНОЇ ВЗАЄМОДІЇ
Authors: Коць Михайло
Published: January 2021

У статті здійснено психологічний аналіз професійно-комунікативного потенціалу майбутнього вчителя як суб’єкта педагогічної взаємодії. Вказано, що сучасні соціально-економічні умови в нашій державі значною мірою актуалізують проблему підготовки фахівців у закладах вищої освіти, зокрема майбутніх педагогів. Саме налагодження оптимальної системи взаємодії та спілкування значною мірою може сприяти ефективній організації та засвоєнню знань, формувати комунікативні уміння як важливі чинники професіоналізму. Здійснено опитування 327 студентів випускних курсів трьох університетів за допомогою модифікованого нами варіанту методики Л. Шнейдер “Визначення впливу педагогічних стосунків на становлення майбутнього вчителя як суб’єкта педагогічної взаємодії” та 124 – за допомогою модифікованого варіанту анкети О. Леонтьєва “Діагностика ефективності педагогічних комунікацій”. Дослідження проблеми регуляції професійно-комунікативного потенціалу особистості майбутнього вчителя як суб’єкта педагогічної взаємодії вказує на необхідність розвитку комунікативних умінь. Обґрунтовано, що вміння спілкування мають універсальний характер, їх слід розглядати як важливий складник серед професійних здібностей педагога. Залежно від того, як організоване спілкування в педагогічному процесі, воно може бути успішним або безуспішним, може сприяти подоланню внутрішньообистісних проблем або може їх стимулювати. Для професійного управління своєю комунікативною діяльністю майбутньому вчителю необхідні: уміння цілеспрямовано організувати спілкування й управляти ним, уміння спілкуватися привселюдно, уміння через правильно створену систему спілкування організувати спільну з учнями творчу діяльність.