bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Modeling of mixed convective heat transfer utilizing nanofluid in a double lid-driven chamber with internal heat generation
Authors: Nasrin Rehena , Alim M.A. , J. Chamkha Ali
Published: December 2013

Purpose

– This work is focused on the numerical modeling of mixed convective heat transfer in a double lid-driven cavity filled with water-CuO nanofluid in the presence of internal heat generation. The paper aims to discuss these issues.

Design/methodology/approach

– The flow field is modeled using a generalized form of the momentum and energy equations. Discretization of the governing equations is achieved using the penalty finite element scheme based on the Galerkin method of weighted residuals.

Findings

– The effects of pertinent parameters such as the internal heat generation parameter (Q), the Richardson number (Ri) and the solid volume fraction () on the flow and heat transfer characteristics are presented and discussed. The obtained results depict that the Richardson number plays a significant role on the heat transfer characterization within the triangular wavy chamber. Also, the present results show that an increase in volume fraction has a significant effect on the flow patterns.

Research limitations/implications

– Because of the chosen research approach numerically, the research results may lack generalisability. Therefore, researchers are encouraged to test the proposed propositions experimentally.

Practical implications

– A nanofluid is a base fluid with suspended metallic nanoparticles. Because traditional fluids used for heat transfer applications such as water, mineral oils and ethylene glycol have a rather low thermal conductivity, nanofluids with relatively higher thermal conductivities have attracted enormous interest from researchers due to their potential in enhancement of heat transfer with little or no penalty in pressure drop.

Originality/value

– This paper fulfils an identified need to study how brand-supportive behaviour can be enabled.
A flow-through analysis of the US lodging industry during the great recession
Authors: Singh Amrik , S. Dev Chekitan , Mandelbaum Robert
Published: December 2013

Purpose

– The objective of this exploratory study is to investigate the “flow-through” or relationship between top-line measures of hotel operating performance (occupancy, average daily rate and revenue per available room) and bottom-line measures of profitability (gross operating profit and net operating income), before and during the recent great recession.

Design/methodology/approach

– This study uses data provided by PKF Hospitality Research for the period from 2007-2009. A total of 714 hotels were analyzed and various top-line and bottom-line profitability changes were computed using both absolute levels and percentages. Multiple regression analysis was used to examine the relationship between top and bottom line measures, and to derive flow-through ratios.

Findings

– The results show that average daily rate (ADR) and occupancy are significantly and positively related to gross operating profit per available room (GOPPAR) and net operating income per available room (NOIPAR). The evidence indicates that ADR, rather than occupancy, appears to be the stronger predictor and better measure of RevPAR growth and bottom-line profitability. The correlations and explained variances are also higher than those reported in prior research. Flow-through ratios range between 1.83 and 1.91 for NOIPAR, and between 1.55 and 1.65 for GOPPAR, across all chain-scales.

Research limitations/implications

– Limitations of this study include the limited number of years in the study period, limited number of hotels in a competitive set, and self-selection of hotels by the researchers.

Practical implications

– While ADR and occupancy work in combination to drive profitability, the authors' study shows that ADR is the stronger predictor of profitability. Hotel managers can use flow-through ratios to make financial forecasts, or use them as inputs in valuation models, to forecast future profitability.

Originality/value

– This paper extends prior research on the relationship between top-line measures and bottom-line profitability and serves to inform lodging owners, operators and asset managers about flow-through ratios, and how these ratios impact hotel profitability.
Using lesson study as an approach to developing teachers as researchers
Authors: Hall David
Published: December 2013

Purpose

– The purpose of this paper is to report on how an academy used lesson study to engage teachers in research, presenting the journey undertaken from its conception through to the implementation of the model. It suggests that lesson study is a suitable process to engage teachers in meaningful research. It shows that lesson study allows teachers to focus on their own practice and on the learning of their students and it is ideal in bridging the gap between research and practice. It will also show that research is enhanced through lesson study because it brings teachers together to work in a collaborative way.

Design/methodology/approach

– The paper reports the intended and actual journey an academy took in planning and implementing lesson study across the academy.

Findings

– The paper provides an explanation on how a school can set up a model which engages its teachers in relevant research. It explains how lesson study can be used as a powerful research tool which helps teachers develop collaboration and investigative minds around their own practice and their own students. It also puts forward recommendations for a school that would seek to introduce lesson study to its staff.

Originality/value

– The paper provides an account for school leadership teams and those with responsibility for developing the practice of other teachers. It will be helpful in assisting schools who desire to strengthen or develop the time devoted to teachers’ professional development.
Experiencing and creating contrasts in music
Authors: Wallerstedt Cecilia
Published: December 2013

Purpose

– The purpose of this paper is to examine what are necessary conditions for learning the concept ABA form, a concept for analysing and composing music, and to discuss how the use of variation theory can contribute to the field of music education research.

Design/methodology/approach

– The method used is a form of lesson study, but with only one participating teacher. Three cycles are conducted with three small groups of children, aged eight to nine years old.

Findings

– The main findings are that the learning of ABA form requires first, awareness of the sequential form of the music, second, that the attitude to differences that appear between sequential parts of the music is consciously being re-direct from seen as “failures” to being interesting musical contrasts and third, that attention is being paid to different features within one musical aspect, that sounds (not only looks) different. It is found that a main contribution of applying variation theory to studies in the domain of music is the consideration of a part-whole relationship. When the teacher helps the children to create contrast and at the same time keeps focus on how it sounds, the children succeed in coming up with a composition in ABA form. To address the simultaneous relationship between acting and seeing, that is musical impressions and expressions, is crucial for learning.

Originality/value

– This study is pioneering since music teaching is studied with the point of departure in an intended object of learning.
Choreographic pedagogies: towards an embodied practice
Authors: Harrington Chrissie
Published: December 2013

Purpose

– The purpose of this paper is to explore the inter-relationship between choreography and pedagogy. It refers specifically to a Participatory Action Research (PAR) project that dealt with investigations into performance making and the design of a teaching and learning model. Shifts from making performance from a pre-determined starting point to a participatory and interactive process are traced to reveal a “choreographic pedagogy” informed and transformed by the experience of its actors.

Design/methodology/approach

– The paper includes a brief explanation of the terms and shared features of choreography and pedagogy, and how PAR facilitated a cyclic generation of new findings that drove the research forward. The research question is tackled through concepts, practices and tasks within the four cycles of research, each year with new participants, questions and expanding contexts.

Findings

– The experience of the research participants reveals unexpected and “unfolding phenomena” that open up spaces for imagining, creating and interpreting, as a “choreographic pedagogy” in action.

Research limitations/implications

– The research might appear to be limited to the areas of performance and teaching and learning, although it could provide a model for other subjects, especially for those that engage with creative processes.

Practical implications

– The research is a “practice as research” model and has implications for research in education as a practice of knowledge exploration and generation.

Originality/value

– It is original and has the potential to inform the ways in which educators explore and expand their disciplines through teaching and learning investigations.
Adoption of Six Sigma DMAIC to reduce cost of poor quality
Authors: Prashar Anupama
Published: December 2013

Purpose

– The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate the systematic application of Six Sigma tools for identification and reduction of cost of poor quality (COPQ). The study examines one of the chronic problems of failure of cooling fan assembly at repair division of a company dealing in helicopter components.

Design/methodology/approach

– The case adopted Six Sigma Define-Measure-Analyze-Improve-Control (DMAIC) methodology to achieve the goal of reduction in COPQ.

Findings

– After completing the Define, Measure and Analyze phase, it was found that use of extreme tolerances and cross-fitment of bearings are the root cause of cooling fan assembly failure. The major recommendations made during the Improve phase were to design a bearing matching software for improving the cross-fitment of bearings and to procure a hydraulic jig with electronic jig instead of manual jig. The value of implementing these recommended solutions equate to a saving of INR 34 lacs per annum. Since it was a chronic problem, the company expects this to be a recurring saving.

Originality/value

– This specific case exhibits the successful application of Six Sigma DMAIC methodology in repair and maintenance for driving down the cost of failure and improved processes.
More f#!%ing rudeness: reliable personality predictors of verbal rudeness and other ugly confrontational behaviors
Authors: Park Anna , Ickes William , L. Robinson Rebecca
Published: December 2013

Purpose

– The purpose of this research is to (1) to identify personality variables that reliably predict verbal rudeness ( i.e by replicating previous findings) and (2) to investigate what personality variables predict more general ugly confrontational behaviors.

Design/methodology/approach

– In Study 1, the authors used an online survey to collect information regarding individual differences in social desirability, self-esteem, narcissism, blirtatiousness, behavioral inhibition, behavioral activation, conventional morality (CM), thin-skinned ego defensiveness (TSED), affect intensity for anger and frustration (AIAF), and verbal rudeness. In Study 2, the authors used a similar online survey to collect the same information, but extended the survey questionnaire to include measures of entitlement, psychopathology, Machiavellianism, and a retrospective checklist of ugly confrontational behaviors.

Findings

– In Study 1, regression analyses revealed that CM, behavioral inhibition, and behavioral activation reward responsiveness were significant negative predictors of rudeness. AIAF, TSED and behavioral activation drive were significant positive predictors of rudeness. In Study 2, regression analyses revealed that CM was again a significant negative predictor of rudeness. AIAF, and narcissism were significant positive predictors of rudeness. CM also negatively predicted ugly confrontational behaviors, whereas AIAF, blirtatiousness, and Machiavellianism were positive predictors.

Originality/value

– Although several measures of aggression exist, the current studies of rudeness and ugly confrontational behavior specifically assess tendencies to abuse strangers. These studies begin to establish a personality profile of the type of person that might abuse strangers.
Customer due diligence (CDD) mandate and the propensity of its application as a global AML paradigm
Authors: Mugarura Norman
Published: December 2013

Purpose

– It has become customary for states or regulatory domains to come together and evolve normative regimes to deal with overlapping exigencies such as money laundering. Over the past two decades, there has been a proliferation of global AML laws designed to foster international cooperation against money laundering and its predicate crimes. In this same vein, some states have adopted domestic AML laws designed with an ethos of extra-territorial dimension as a caution against the threats posed by money laundering crimes. The paper aims to critically examine CDD to tease out the possibility of harnessing it as a global AML paradigm.

Design/methodology/approach

– The paper was written by critically examining primary and secondary data sources. In terms of primary data, the author has studied the relevant provision of different AML legislation such as BSA (1970), MLCA (1986), and PATRIOT (2001) Act in the USA; and FSMA (2000) and POCA (2002) in the UK. The author then evaluated these data in the context of the challenges of harnessing CDD across countries. In terms of secondary data sources, the author utilised data in academic text books, journal papers, electronic sources (web sites of AML agencies), and policy and research papers from specialist institutions such as FATF.

Findings

– The findings corroborate the thesis that much as CDD is an important AML measure, it needs to be streamlined and implemented with care to apply across the board.

Research limitations/implications

– The paper was written largely by way of library-based research. The author did not carry out interviews to corroborate some of the secondary data sources used in writing it. Carrying out interviews would have helped to minimise the potential for bias secondary data sources used was generated.

Practical implications

– It is anticipated that this paper can be utilised to foster desired strategic and policy changes at a multiple institutional levels.

Originality/value

– The paper is one of its kind to be written in its context. It will therefore make a viable contribution to the study of money counter-measures and how they are harnessed globally. It is therefore a must read!
Politicians, political parties' funding in Greece and anti-money laundering regulatory framework
Authors: Repousis Spyridon
Published: December 2013

Purpose

– The purpose of this paper is to examine politically exposed persons and major Greek political parties' funding sources as well as the anti-money laundering regulatory framework for political parties' funding sources.

Design/methodology/approach

– This paper aimed at investigating data about Greek political parties' funding by identifying new problems and developing solutions.

Findings

– The main findings are that Greek political parties' major sources of revenues are public subsidies and bank loans. Also, data show that two major Greek political parties cannot easily repay their bank loans (especially PASOK) and must renegotiate terms with banks and must agree for a new, long-term and lower payment schedule at a lower interest rate. Extending the period of repayment is necessary for viability of debts, and banks will protect themselves against default and total losses of about 253.1 million euros from the two major political parties. Public subsidies are the only collateral that Greek political parties offer to banks.

Practical implications

– As a result of research, structural changes are necessary to immediately be made in order to cope with politically exposed persons and political parties' corruption and funding in Greece, especially during the current fiscal crises. Greek political parties need to raise funds from other sources than only public subsidies. Anti-Money Laundering Regulatory Framework have to stop conduit contributions and force banks to apply Know Your Client Principle for donors. Also, to include on Suspicious Activity Report a checkbox of “Political Finance Violations”. Establishing a code of conduct informing employees of the risks and subsequences of political corruption, creating a culture of honesty and high ethics and implementing Controlled Foreign Corporation legislation to cope with corruption in political parties' funding can help to recover ill-gotten assets. Finally, implementing Business Principles for Countering Bribery and UK Bribery Act will increase transparency in funding of Greek political parties.

Originality/value

– The paper examines corruption and funding sources of Greek political parties, especially during the period 2009-2011, suggesting policy measures to deter and detect money laundering and illegal funding to politically exposed persons and political parties. Findings offer important measures for political analysts, government and society as a whole. A stable political system is prerequisite for a healthy society and for economic growth.
Today's business libraries: a vital local resource in a challenging economy
Authors: Massis Bruce
Published: December 2013

Purpose

– The purpose of this column is to provide several examples of libraries that have recognized the importance of freely offering a wide array of business resources to individuals and businesses.

Design/methodology/approach

– The paper takes the form of a literature review and commentary on this topic that has been addressed by professionals, researchers and practitioners.

Findings

– In a challenging economy, it is inconceivable that any new library's planning would not include a business center that can support those seeking employment, businesses seeking startup opportunities, current information on markets, their trends and analyses, and first and foremost, free resources available to all seeking to build a stronger economy constructed on the importance of access to data and information.

Originality/value

– The value in addressing this issue is to highlight the position the library maintains as a vital local business resource in today's challenging economy.
Using iBooks and iPad apps to embed information literacy into an EFL foundations course
Authors: Johnston Nicole , Marsh Sally
Published: December 2013

Purpose

– This case study describes the collaborative process between library staff and faculty of embedding information literacy into an EFL (English as a Foreign Language) foundations (bridging) course through an information literacy matrix, iBooks and iPad apps.

Design/methodology/approach

– The study focuses on the approach taken to embed information literacy through iPads and iBooks through the development of an information literacy matrix and iPad activities created in collaboration with faculty in a foundations bridging course in an EFL environment. Feedback was sought from faculty on the content of the iBooks and the outcome of using them in the classroom.

Findings

– The embedding of information literacy into the curriculum though iPads and iBooks created new opportunities for library staff to collaborate with faculty and professional development opportunities for library staff. Feedback from faculty about the iBooks indicated that the “hands on” nature of the activities and the interactivity provided by the apps contributed to student engagement in the lessons. Literature on using mobile technology in education has also found that it fosters collaboration and interactivity in the classroom.

Research limitations/implications

– Further research is needed that assesses and gathers feedback from students regarding the usability of the iBooks from the students' perspective. This research fills a gap in the literature that explores using mobile technology, specifically iPads to develop information literacy curriculum.

Practical implications

– This case study can be used as an example of how to embed information literacy curriculum using iPads and iBooks into English foundations or bridging courses. Students and faculty will develop information literacy and technological skills through teaching and learning from these iBooks.

Originality/value

– There are currently only a few academic articles written on the use of iPads in the library. Most of these articles focus on reference services and one-shot instructional lessons. There are few academic articles that focus on using iPads and iBooks to embed information literacy into curriculum.
How do personality traits affect communication among users in online social networks?
Authors: Maria Balmaceda Jose , Schiaffino Silvia , Godoy Daniela
Published: December 2013

Purpose

– The purpose of this work is to analyse the relationships between the personality traits of linked users in online social networks. First the authors tried to discover relation patterns between personality dimensions in conversations. They also wanted to verify some hypotheses: whether users' personality is stable throughout different conversation threads and whether the similarity-attraction paradigm can be verified in this context. They used the five factor model of personality or Big Five, which has been widely studied in psychology.

Design/methodology/approach

– One of the approaches to detect users' personalities is by analysing the language they use when they talk to others. Based on this assumption the authors computed users' personality from the conversations extracted from the MySpace social network. Then the authors analysed the relationships among personality traits of users to discover patterns.

Findings

– The authors found that there are patterns between some personality dimensions in conversation threads, for example, agreeable people tend to communicate with extroverted people. They confirmed that the personality stability theory can be verified in social networks. Finally the authors could verify the similarity-attraction paradigm for some values of personality traits, such as extroversion, agreeableness, and openness to experience.

Originality/value

– The results the authors found provide some clues about how people communicate within online social networks, particularly who they tend to communicate with depending on their personality. The discovered patterns can be used in a wide range of applications, such as suggesting contacts in online social networks. Although some studies have been made regarding the role of personality in social media, no similar analysis has been done to evaluate how users communicate in social media considering their personality.
From e-government to social government: Twitter use by Korea's central government
Authors: Feroz Khan Gohar , Young Yoon Ho , Kim Jiyoung , Woo Park Han
Published: December 2013

Purpose

– This study aims to explore Twitter use by Korea's central government by classifying the government's Twitter-based networking strategies into government-to-citizen (G2C) and government-to-government (G2G) strategies.

Design/methodology/approach

– The study investigates the nature of social media interactions and networking strategies in the Korean government by extracting tweets, follower/following relationships, and hyperlinks for 32 ministries. Network patterns and networking strategies are reviewed through descriptive statistical analysis and social network analysis to map the government's Twitter activity.

Findings

– The results indicate that the government's direct networking strategy targeting citizens does not necessarily motivate their participation in the government's social media activities but that it plays an instrumental role in reinforcing G2G relationships.

Originality/value

– This study investigates the social media use patterns (e.g. network properties and co-link analyses) and strategies (e.g. the reciprocity of relationships and content-push strategies) in the context of G2C and G2G relationships in Korea's public sector.
Ranking and mapping of universities and research-focused institutions worldwide based on highly-cited papers
Authors: Bornmann Lutz , Stefaner Moritz , de Moya Anegón Felix , Mutz Rüdiger
Published: December 2013

Purpose

– The web application presented in this paper allows for an analysis to reveal centres of excellence in different fields worldwide using publication and citation data. Only specific aspects of institutional performance are taken into account and other aspects such as teaching performance or societal impact of research are not considered. The purpose of this paper is to address these issues.

Design/methodology/approach

– Based on data gathered from Scopus, field-specific excellence can be identified in institutions where highly-cited papers have been frequently published.

Findings

– The web application (www.excellencemapping.net) combines both a list of institutions ordered by different indicator values and a map with circles visualising indicator values for geocoded institutions.

Originality/value

– Compared to the mapping and ranking approaches introduced hitherto, our underlying statistics (multi-level models) are analytically oriented by allowing the estimation of values for the number of excellent papers for an institution which are statistically more appropriate than the observed values; the calculation of confidence intervals as measures of accuracy for the institutional citation impact; the comparison of a single institution with an “average” institution in a subject area: and the direct comparison of at least two institutions.
Consumers of organic food and sustainable development in Brazil
Authors: de Oliveira Sampaio Danilo , Gosling Marlusa
Published: December 2013

Purpose

– The purpose of this paper is to investigate the reasons why the Brazilian consumer of organic foods chooses this type of food in the retail sector, considering sustainable development.

Design/methodology/approach

– This was a descriptive study including an exploratory phase. Regarding the methods of research, two focus groups (FGs) were developed in the qualitative phase, and then structural equation modelling was used by means of a cross-sectional survey in a quantitative design. The sample was non-probabilistic, intentionally non-random, for convenience and accessibility (n=560). Organic food consumers were addressed in different types of food retail: supermarkets, restaurants and specialised retailers.

Findings

– Only one of 12 hypotheses was not confirmed. The FGs provided important information for the development of the questionnaire used in the survey. The endogenous construct, intent to purchase, showed a correlation coefficient of 41 per cent (R2=41 per cent), indicating that 41 per cent of their variations are explained by the exogenous constructs. It can be considered that one of the academic contributions of this research was to develop a model that will drive how the purchasing behaviour/consumption of organic food in Brazil occurs.

Practical implications

– Considering the results of the variables of this research, retailers can create advertising campaigns that have an appreciation for the environment and quality of product and availability (logistics) in relation to organic food as the message content, because these variables can motivate the purchase. It is also suggested that the layout of the sales area in the retail premises highlights the organic food on the shelves, and the retailer's job could define the associations to the brands of organic foods, focusing on health and well-being.

Originality/value

– As in Brazil there is little information on the behaviour of organic food consumers, the creation of a new model will assist entrepreneurs in their strategies and highlights a type of food that meets the principles of sustainability.
Plant size and reproductive state affect the quantity and quality of rewards to animal mutualists
Authors: Miller Tom E. X.
Published: December 2013

Many plants engage ants in defensive mutualisms by offering extrafloral nectar (EFN). Identifying sources of variation in EFN quantity (amount) and quality (composition) is important because they can affect ant visitation and identity and hence effectiveness of plant defence.

I investigated plant size and reproductive state (vegetative or flowering) as sources of variation in EFN quantity and quality. I focused on Opuntia imbricata and two ant partners, Crematogaster opuntiae and Liometopum apiculatum. I tested the influence of plant size and nectary type (vegetative vs. reproductive structure) on the probability and rate of EFN secretion, concentrations of total carbohydrates (CH) and amino acids (AAs), and relative abundances of constituent CH and AAs. I also examined how traits of individual nectaries scaled up to influence total plant‐level rewards. Parallel observations documented associations between plant demographic state and ant visitation and species identity.

EFN quantity and quality were generally greater for larger, reproductive plants. At the scale of individual nectaries, probability of EFN secretion was positively size‐dependent and greater for nectaries on reproductive vs. vegetative structures. Rate of EFN secretion, carbohydrate and amino acid concentrations, and the relative abundance of disaccharide vs. monosaccharide sugars were greater for reproductive nectaries but were unaffected by plant size.

Nectary‐level traits scaled up to influence rewards at the whole‐plant level in ways that corresponded to ant visitation: the probability of ant occupancy increased with plant size and reproduction, as did the likelihood of being tended by the superior guard, L. apiculatum. Variability in EFN traits may contribute to changes in ant occupancy and identity across plant sizes and reproductive states.

Synthesis. This study provides a thorough examination of how plant investment in biotic defence varies over the life cycle. Explicit consideration of plant demography may enhance understanding of ant–plant mutualisms. Populations of long‐lived plants are demographically heterogeneous, spanning sizes and reproductive states. The rewards offered to animal mutualists can track demographic heterogeneity with consequences for plant defence and the dynamics of multispecies mutualisms.
The contribution of knowledge about anaphors, organisational signals and refutations to reading comprehension
Authors: García J. Ricardo , Bustos Andrea , Sánchez Emilio
Published: December 2013

Expository texts contain rhetorical devices that help readers to connect text ideas (within a text and with prior knowledge) and to monitor reading. Rhetorical competence addresses readers' skill in detecting, understanding and using these devices. We examined the contribution of rhetorical competence to reading comprehension on two groups of 11‐ to 13‐year‐old students: low‐level (Study 1) and high‐level (Study 2) reading skills. The measures of rhetorical competence assessed students' knowledge about anaphors, organisational signals and refutations. In both studies, each measure of rhetorical competence contributed significantly to reading comprehension once prior knowledge, working memory and decoding skills were controlled for. This contribution was higher in Study 2. Furthermore, whereas in Study 1, each measure of rhetorical competence had a unique contribution to reading comprehension when controlling for the other measures of rhetorical competence, in Study 2, only the knowledge about organisational signals and refutations had this unique contribution.
Physicochemical and antioxidant properties of Maillard reaction products formed by heating whey protein isolate and reducing sugars
Authors: Liu Qian , Li Jing , Kong Baohua , Li Peijun , Xia Xiufang
Published: December 2013

This study was conducted to investigate the physicochemical and antioxidant properties of Maillard reaction products (MRP) prepared by heating whey protein isolate (WPI) and reducing sugars (glucose and galactose) to 95 °C for different lengths of time (0–6 h). The results revealed that the colour, intermediate products, browning intensity and the antioxidant activities of the MRP increased as the reaction time increased (P < 0.05), whereas the pH value and free amino group content decreased (P < 0.05). Sodium dodecyl sulphate–polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis indicated that the covalently linked conjugates of WPI and sugars were formed. The results indicate that the Maillard reaction could improve the antioxidant capacity of WPI.
Overview of: “Statistical Procedures for Forecasting Criminal Behavior: A Comparative Assessment”
Authors: Berk Richard A. , Bleich Justin
Published: December 2013

Research Summary

A substantial and powerful literature in statistics and computer science has clearly demonstrated that modern machine learning procedures can forecast more accurately than conventional parametric statistical models such as logistic regression. Yet, several recent studies have claimed that for criminal justice applications, forecasting accuracy is about the same. In this article, we address the apparent contradiction. Forecasting accuracy will depend on the complexity of the decision boundary. When that boundary is simple, most forecasting tools will have similar accuracy. When that boundary is complex, procedures such as machine learning, which proceed adaptively from the data, will improve forecasting accuracy, sometimes dramatically. Machine learning has other benefits as well, and effective software is readily available.

Policy Implications

The complexity of the decision boundary will in practice be unknown, and there can be substantial risks to gambling on simplicity. Criminal justice decision makers and other stakeholders can be seriously misled with rippling effects going well beyond the immediate offender. There seems to be no reason for continuing to rely on traditional forecasting tools such as logistic regression.
Spatially explicit integrated population models
Authors: Chandler Richard B. , Clark Joseph D.
Published: December 2013

Studies of demographic processes are typically restricted to small geographic areas and short time periods due to the costs of marking and monitoring individuals. However, environmental changes are occurring at much broader spatial and temporal scales, and thus, inferences about the mechanisms governing population dynamics need to be scaled accordingly. Recently developed integrated population models (IPMs) represent an approach for doing so, by jointly analysing survey data and capture–recapture data.

Although promising, several shortcomings of conventional IPMs exist, including difficulties accounting for spatial variation in demographic, movement and detection parameters; limited ability to make spatially explicit predictions of abundance or vital rates; and a requirement that the survey data and the capture–recapture data are independent. We demonstrate how each of these limitations can be resolved by adopting a spatial population dynamics model upon which both the survey data and the capture–recapture data are conditioned.

We applied the model to 6 years of hair data collected on the threatened Louisiana black bear Ursus americanus luteolus. For years in which the hair samples were genotyped, the resulting data are information‐rich (but expensive) spatial capture–recapture (SCR) data. For the remaining years, the data are binary detection data, of the type often analysed using occupancy models. We compared estimates of demographic parameters and annual abundance using various combinations of the SCR and detection data, and found that combining the SCR data and the detection data resulted in more precise estimates of abundance relative to estimates that did not use the detection data. A simulation study provided additional evidence of increased precision, as well as evidence that the estimators of annual abundance are approximately unbiased.

The ability to combine survey data and capture–recapture data using a spatially explicit model opens many possibilities for designing cost effective studies and scaling up inferences about the demographic processes influencing spatial and temporal population dynamics.
A statistical framework for inferring the influence of conspecifics on movement behaviour
Authors: Delgado María del Mar , Penteriani Vincenzo , Morales Juan Manuel , Gurarie Eliezer , Ovaskainen Otso
Published: December 2013

The movements of individuals – at almost any scale – are likely to depend on the behaviour of conspecifics. As an example, the movements of dispersing juveniles and their settling decisions may depend on the availability of mates and free territories, that is, both the presence and absence of other individuals. As another example, individuals can use the presence of conspecifics during foraging movements as an indicator of habitat quality.

We develop a general statistical framework for identifying and characterizing conspecific influence on movements from tracking data acquired simultaneously from a set of potentially interacting individuals.

We model conspecific attraction/repulsion through a functional response in which social behaviour is assumed to depend on proximity to other individuals. The model partitions variation in the functional response into a population component (common to all individuals), variation among individuals (modelled as random intercept‐slope) and variation within an individual's trajectory (modelled through temporal autocorrelation).

We present a Bayesian approach for the estimation of the model and illustrate its use with simulated movement data generated from a number of contrasting scenarios. We then apply the method to a case study on eagle owl Bubo bubo juvenile dispersal, demonstrating that individual movements are generally influenced by the presence of conspecifics, with the level of attraction decreasing with increasing proximity to other individuals. We further show that female eagle owls are more attracted to conspecifics than males, and both males and females are more attracted to females than to males.
The early history of ideas on brief interventions for alcohol
Authors: McCambridge Jim , Cunningham John A.
Published: December 2013

Aims

This study explores the early development of brief interventions for alcohol using a history of ideas approach with a particular focus on intervention content.

Methods

The source publications of the key primary studies published from approximately 1962 to 1992 were examined, followed by a brief review of the earliest reviews in this field. These studies were placed in the context of developments in alcohol research and in public health.

Results

After early pioneering work on brief interventions, further advances were not made until thinking about alcohol problems and their treatment, most notably on controlled drinking, along with wider changes in public health, created new conditions for progress. There was then a golden era of rapid advance in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when preventing the development of problem drinking became important for public health reasons, in addition to helping already problematic drinkers. Many research challenges identified at that time remain to be met. The content of brief interventions changed over the period of study, although not in ways well informed by research advances, and there were also obvious continuities, with a renewed emphasis on the facilitation of self‐change being one important consequence of the development of internet applications.

Conclusions

Ideas about brief interventions have changed in important ways. Brief interventions have been studied with different populations of drinkers, with aims embracing both individual and population‐level perspectives, and without well‐specified contents. The brief intervention field is an appropriate target for further historical investigations, which may help thinking about addressing alcohol and other problems.
New Nationalism in Australia and New Zealand: The Construction of National Identities by Two Labo(u)r Governments in the Early 1970s
Authors: Doig Jack
Published: December 2013

During the 1970s the Whitlam government in Australia and the Kirk government in New Zealand each adopted a policy of new nationalism in an attempt to come to terms with a rapidly changing and increasingly decolonised world marked by the decline of Britain as an economic and military force in the world. In each case this new nationalism prioritised local and national identities over a larger pan‐British identity. Both governments were more inward‐looking and yet also more engaged with the Asia‐Pacific region than their predecessors. They promoted their own national distinctiveness and independence, while also forging closer relationships with each other and the wider region. Both embraced a new understanding of their geographic position and repudiated the idea that Australia and New Zealand were European nations on the edge of Asia. The nationalisms they promoted were remarkably similar, yet there are important differences that reflect their different ethnic makeup and geographic position.
The Hau of Theory: The Kept‐Gift of Theory Itself in American Anthropology
Authors: Falcone Jessica Marie
Published: December 2013

In this essay, I deploy anthropological theories of exchange to trace contemporary practices of theory exchange in the academy, most specifically in anthropology. I examine participation in various sites of theory exchange from classroom to conference, from citer to cited, and from writer to reader and back again. By explicitly deploying the theoretical toolkit of anthropology that we have at our disposal, we can and should simultaneously examine our own knowledge production practices with more deliberateness even as we seek to understand our subjects' varied worldviews.
Differences in the prevalence of metabolic disorders between prepubertal boys and girls from 5 to 8 years of age
Authors: Maier Ina B. , Özel Yelda , Engstler Anna Janina , Puchinger Sonja , Wagnerberger Sabine , Hulpke‐Wette Martin , Bischoff Stephan C. , Bergheim Ina
Published: December 2013

Aim

To determine the prevalence of metabolic abnormalities, and differences between the sexes, in prepubertal overweight and normal weight children aged from 5 to 8 years, without any signs of health impairments or metabolic disturbances at the time of recruitment.

Methods

General health status and inflammatory markers were assessed in 100 overweight and 51 normal weight children, who were living in Germany and had undergone mandatory medical examinations. The study comprised of 81 girls and 70 boys.

Results

Despite being recruited as healthy, 73% of the overweight children and 16% of the normal weight children were found to suffer from one or more metabolic abnormalities, such as hypertension or insulin resistance. Girls with a body mass index (BMI) percentile of ≥80th showed an increased susceptibility to metabolic disorders, and a similar effect was found for boys with a BMI percentile of ≥95th. Plasma levels of pro‐inflammatory markers, such as plasminogen activator inhibitor‐1 and leptin, were also significantly higher in overweight than normal weight children.

Conclusion

Metabolic and cardiovascular abnormalities and pro‐inflammatory markers were prevalent in overweight prepubertal children. The prevalence rates appeared to differ between the sexes.
A Bayesian approach to the analysis of quantal bioassay studies using nonparametric mixture models
Authors: Fronczyk Kassandra , Kottas Athanasios
Published: December 2013

We develop a Bayesian nonparametric mixture modeling framework for quantal bioassay settings. The approach is built upon modeling dose‐dependent response distributions. We adopt a structured nonparametric prior mixture model, which induces a monotonicity restriction for the dose–response curve. Particular emphasis is placed on the key risk assessment goal of calibration for the dose level that corresponds to a specified response. The proposed methodology yields flexible inference for the dose–response relationship as well as for other inferential objectives, as illustrated with two data sets from the literature.
Fluvial response to rapid high‐amplitude lake‐level changes during the Late Weichselian and early Holocene, Ain River valley, Jura, France
Authors: Kasse Cornelis
Published: December 2013

In the present paper the effects of rapid, high‐amplitude base‐level changes during the last glacial‐interglacial transition were studied for the Ain River in eastern France. During the Würm glacial maximum (MIS 2) rapid aggradation by deep‐water Gilbert‐type deltas and shallow‐water fan deltas occurred at the margins of a 20 to 50 m deep proglacial lake. A temporal high‐amplitude lake‐level fall of 60 m resulted in gravel deposition by forced‐regressive deltas, followed by rapid lake‐level rise and fine‐grained glaciolacustrine deposition. During the final deglaciation, a rapid base‐level fall of 40 m resulted in a complex fluvial response. Knickpoint formation and headward incision of the highstand deltas and concomitant deposition of gravel sheets by forced‐regressive deltas and braided systems occurred in several depocentres on the former glacial lake floor. Preservation of highstand and falling‐stage deposits and terrace formation in the incised valley depended on vertical incision and lateral channel migration. Terraces are well developed in the former lake‐floor depressions, whereas vertical incision was dominant in the higher lake‐floor areas. The Ain terrace staircase was likely formed by autogenic processes during a single allogenic base‐level fall. This case study possibly offers an analogue for the preservation of interglacial highstand coastal deltas during sea‐level fall at warm‐to‐cold climate transitions, although the rates of base‐level fall are different.
Novel methods for dyeing the epidermis of bamboo culms and their colour fastness
Authors: Chung Min‐Jay , Cheng Sen‐Sung , Lee Chia‐Ju , Chang Shang‐Tzen
Published: December 2013

This study examined the effects of various dyestuffs and treatment conditions on the epidermis colour of ma bamboo (Dendrocalamus latiflorus), moso bamboo (Phyllostachys pubescens), and makino bamboo (P. makinoi). The objective was to determine the optimum approach for endowing the bamboo culms with a fascinating brown colour without removing their epidermis, which would increase the economic value of bamboo products. Experimental results revealed that an excellent brown colour was obtained when bamboo culms were treated with 0.25% CI Basic Brown 4 solution in an 80 °C water bath for 60 min (H° values of 37.9, 25.0, and 25.7° respectively). In addition, alkali‐pretreated bamboo culms also exhibited a good brown colour dyeing when treated with 0.25% CI Basic Brown 4 at ambient temperature for 2 days (a* and b* values of 30.8 and 35.1 respectively). Furthermore, the use of an ultrasonic bath instead of a water bath can reduce the treatment time required for achieving an improvement in the effectiveness of brown colour dyeing of the bamboo epidermis. Results obtained from indoor light fastness tests demonstrated that more uniform dyeing and better colour fastness could be achieved by colour fixation post‐treatment with 1% glacial acetic acid.