bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Domestic and Foreign Conflict Behavior of Nations
Authors: Wilkenfeld Jonathan
Published: March 2007

This study is concerned with the relationship between the domestic and foreign conflict behavior of nations. Specifically, it is postulated that two key variables, type of nation and nature of conflict, determine the nature of this relationship. A population of 74 nations are divided into three groups, personalist, centrist, and polyarchic. A correlation analysis is then performed on these groups for all possible pairs of domestic conflict behavior dimensions - 'turmoil', 'revolutionary,' 'subversive' - and foreign conflict behavior dimensions - 'war,' 'diplomatic,' 'belligerency.' Stage 2 of the analysis, using raw data and covering a period from 1955 to 1960, facilitat s the investigation of time lags as a possible additional factor. The results of the study indicate that the postulated relationships do exist, with joe of nation constituting perhaps the key element in the nature of this relationship.
Miscalculations in Deterrent Policy: Japanese-U.S. Relations, 1938-1941
Authors: Hosoya Chihiro
Published: March 2007

This article explores an action-reaction process which occurred between Japan and the U.S. in the years preceding World War II, focusing on the U.S.' imposition of economic sanctions. It maintains that these sanctions failed to deter the Japanese from pursuing their expansionist policy, and instead stimulated Japan's southward expansion and even its determination to go to war with the U.S. Miscalculations of the deterrent policy are ascribed to lack of understanding of the hard-line faction within the U.S. Govern ment as to the structure of Japan's foreign policy decision-making, and the psychology of the Japanese, in particular the military.
The Vietnam War as a Richardson Process
Authors: Alcock N.Z. , Lowe Keith
Published: March 2007

The general hypothesis of this empirical research is that an escalating limited war follows an action-and-reaction process which is less calculated and more irrational than an 'old- fashioned' declared war. The specific hypothesis is that the Vietnam war can be described by the Richardson arms race equations, with total casualties replacing total arms expenditures. Irregularities in the resulting curves were tested against qualitative events over the time period studied.

The general hypothesis was not confirmed; the specific hypothesis was confirmed - the Vietnam escalation appears to be very similar to the arms race preceding World War II with a single sharp change in slope interrupting an otherwise consistant straight line plot. Two events may account for the apparent discontinuity: the Tonkin Bay incident of August 1964 and the Pleiku base incident of February 1965 followed immediately by the U.S. bombing of North Vietnam.

It is noted that the events cited correspond to a change of office in the American presidency, and it is speculated therefore that another change of office in January 1969 may lead to a further discontinuity. On the basis of the calculations, it is suggested that peace negotiations and a de-escalation of the fighting are more likely to occur after there is a significant with drawal of American combat troops from Vietnam.
Portsmouth 1905: Peace or Truce?
Authors: White J.A.
Published: March 2007

White offers an unstated challenge to studies of how wars end by maintaining that war and peace are a continuum in the struggle for power, that both are "equally inconclusive", and, by implication, hardly distinguishable from each other (or not distinguishable in ways White regards as significant). White provides nevertheless a brief but very clearly stated sketch of the relationship of military situation, costs and domestic pressures to changing war aims and peace conditions (especially for Japan) in the process of terminating the Russo-Japanese war. The role of the mediator (President Roosevelt) is touched on briefly in the context of giving aid to Japan by facilitating the negotiations. Thus White offers support to a suggestion of Morris that mediators are generally interested and their role "mischievous" (in this case, from the standpoint that the political outcome is more important than the cessation of armed hostilities).
Stratification in the System of International Organizations
Authors: Väyrynen Raimo
Published: March 2007

This article explores some characteristics of international governmental organizations (IGOs) and their development. The most central findings are (1) very rapid increase in the number of economic and subregional organizations as compared with other types of IGOs, and (2) increasing stratification within transregional and global organizations and decreasing stratifi cation within regional and subregional ones. Furthermore, stratification has increased most notably within economic and military IGOs, while the opposite is case among socio-cultural and coordinative organizations.

These trends might indicate the increasing significance of the 'bargaining model' of interna tional relations, especially in economic matters between developed and developing countries. Thus far, the realization of this structural model has not been possible for one simple reason: there is no collective organization strong enough in the Third World, so Great Powers have been able to apply a 'one-at-time' - policy in organizational interaction with developing coun tries.

A typology of international organizations based on the ranks of member states is presented. This typology, for example, indicates that low total and high average rank of member states leads to a higher probability of organizational agreement upon great sectoral scope and high range in decision making.
Europe: Bipolar, Bicentric or Cooperative?
Authors: Galtung Johan
Published: March 2007

The theory of peace developed in the book Co operation in Europe is used to evaluate the present state of affairs in East-West relations in Europe as well as future prospects.

The major argument is that peace has a struc ture, and that structure has not yet been built be tween East and West in Europe. The Warsaw and Moscow treaties as well as the Berlin and intra German negotiations are important in clearing up after World War II and in affirming the terri torial status quo in Europe, but they do not by themselves contribute to a peace structure. Nego tiations about arms control only help perfect the balance of power, and disarmament negotiations have so far been a failure and will continue to be so unless the present structure of non-peace is trans formed.

Although the trade between East and West is increasing, it still has the traditional inequitable structure of raw materials and foodstuffs from East to West and processed goods in the other direction. Moreover, with the rapid integration and expansion of the European Communities an integra tion race has set in, with CMEA also solidifying. There is the danger that this race will make all- European co-operation too weak to have sufficient peace-building effect.

There are still many possibilities to be explored for increased and more meaningful East-West co operation, some of which are discussed in the ar ticle. More particularly, East and West should try to come together in efforts to discuss the future of European societies and the future of active peaceful co-existence.
Divided Nations and Reunification Strategies
Authors: Jo Yung-Hwan , Walker Stephen
Published: March 2007

Contemporary international trends and recent research based upon international integration theo ry suggest a tacit reunification strategy for divided nations. This theory emphasizes the creation of international and domestic background conditions conducive to collaboration and does not recom mend explicit reunification terms. International con ditions favorable to collaboration are ones which reduce ties to cold war patrons and permit more flexible foreign policies. The proliferation of nu clear weapons, polycentric tendencies within alli ance blocs, detente relationships across blocs, and the low profile direction of US foreign policy are international trends that may permit such flexi bility for the divided nations of Germany and Korea.

Integration theory postulates that pairs of na tions with similar levels of social, economic, and administrative development are more likely to collaborate, despite different political and cultural values. If one half of a divided nation tacitly matches the development patterns of the other half, then this symmetrical growth strategy cre ates favorable domestic conditions for international collaboration without the explicit cooperation of both halves. One fragment's elite can then readily exploit either international trends or changes in the elite attitudes of the other half, which may provide opportunities for transaction increases or intergovernmental collaboration.

A commitment within the divided nations to total reunification has previously led to free- election and coalition-government diplomatic for mulae and to military strategies of national liber ation and negotiations from strength. From a theoretical perspective, a more realistic strategy for the foreseeable future is symmetrical growth aimed at partial reunification, where the fragments retain separate political identities while their citi zens communicate, visit, and trade together.
Three Approaches to Exploitation: Markets Products, and Communities
Authors: Höivik Tord
Published: March 2007

Exploitation is a normative concept applied to economic processes and, by extension, to other spheres of human interaction. That it has to do with losses suffered by economic actors, such as persons, regions, classes, and nations, is generally accepted; beyond that, its meaning and relevance are strongly disputed.

We distinguish three principally different ways of regarding economic justice, each leading to a different interpretation of the exploitation con cept :

Market reasoning uses the market as an implicit standard for evaluating all economic activities, and dominates economic theory in all capitalist countries. Exploitation occurs only as a deviation from the ideal market situation and can be corrected for by restituting the balance. The market ideal has, however, built into it skewnesses stemming from the division of labor: products have effects far beyond their sales value.

Product reasoning starts with the creation of values. In its marxist form, only labor can truly be said to produce and have rights to the product, while the shares going to land and capital are— by definition—exploitative of the workers. The problem of unequal wages, however, cannot easily be solved by arguments concerning 'contributions to production'.

The community approach has a factual as well as a normative component. Most economic systems are so complex that the individual actors do not benefit (or lose) from their own actions only: economic outcomes are caused by actors everywhere in the system. This factual inter dependence should then be a basis for extending solidarity throughout the system, i.e. taking as a goal that the interrelated actors be treated as a community. The concrete manifestations of solidarity would depend on community norms, but should at least lead to decreasing economic distance between the actors. If the opposite is occurring, exploitation is present, even though the mechanism by which it works may be obscure.
The Dynamics of Colonial violence : The Inductive System in Uganda
Authors: Kabwegyere Tarsis B.
Published: March 2007

This article examines the nature and effects of colonial rule implantation at the local level, with specific reference to the case of Colonial Uganda. The general hypothesis is that any agent of change alien to those people whose way of life this agent is to change radically, will use violence as a main means to bring about the change.

Linking Galtung's basic distinction between physical, psychological, and structural violence to the three stages in the colonial process of conquest, rule establishment, and maintenance of colonial domination, the author presents concrete examples from the history of Colonial Uganda.

It is concluded that a 'successful' change agent would then be one whose aspirations and objec tives merged with those of the people he aspires to change - which is impossible in a colonial set ting, given the very nature of colonialism.
War and Peace in Indochina
Authors: Thee Marek
Published: March 2007

Drawing largely on the Pentagon Study and other documentary evidence, the paper tries to trace the evolution in the post World War II period of the US imperial drive to the shores of Asia, and especially the historical record of the US Indo china involvement. Stress is laid on motivation and the driving forces behind the US engagement, particularly the political, strategical and economic interests.

The paper analyzes the political strategy of the Nixon Administration and points to the continuity of US Pacific policies during the last five Admini strations. There has been only discontinuity in strategies, various Administrations trying to tackle the difficulties encountered from different angles and with different political and military instru ments. Doubt is expressed if the Nixon strategy- which in fact means a return to traditional great power diplomacy in the spirit of the XIX century - could produce a lasting peace. A lasting resolu tion of the Indochina conflict would require the fulfilment of two basic conditions: (1) to relieve tension in the inner circle of conflict by satis fying the social and national aspirations of the Indochinese peoples, i.e. stopping outside inter vention and allowing the national movements freely to shape the fate of the Indochinese nations; and (2) to eliminate conflict in the outer circle by making the area free of great power rivalry, especially in the military field, i.e. neutralization of the region.

Some concluding remarks are offered con cerning the nature and dynamics of the US Indo china involvement. Pure profit motives could hardly account for this ruinous undertaking. Among the determinants for this drive are new elements of a world power balance, new attributes usurped by the executive bureaucracy, and new domestic and world domination patterns. Atten tion is drawn to the realively autonomous role of the superstructure. There is a need for further studies of the fabric, structure, and dynamics of these new phenomena in order effectively to con front them.
Regulating Direct Foreign Investment and Technology Transfer in the Andean Group
Authors: Mytelka Lynn K.
Published: March 2007

After explaining the adoption of Decision 24 in terms of (a) the logical need to regulate direct foreign investment and technology transfer within regional integrative systems so as to create conditions necessary for the accomplishment of other integrative goals, and (b) the needs of an emergent national bourgeoisie within certain of the Andean countries. the paper demonstrates the extent to which the absence of social forces supportive of re gulation in all of the member countries led to attempts to modify Decision 24 and to divergencies in its implementation by national authorities. By checking the extent to which Decision 24 was applied at the national level the author is then able to examine the impact of Decision 24 on the rate of divestment, on the degree to which direct foreign investment and technology contracts were being subjected to review and renegotiation, and on the inflow of direct foreign investment into the region. In addition the paper presents the results of a survey of the attitudes of 90 managers of chemical and metalworking firms in Peru, Colombia, and Ecuador towards the regulation of direct foreign investment and technology transfer.
Centres and Peripheries: An Empirical test of Galtung's Theory of Imperialism
Authors: Gidengil Elisabeth L.
Published: March 2007

Johan Galtung's structural theory of economic imperialism is tested empirically by using cluster analysis to determine whether the nations of the world do, in fact, form groups in terms of the dimensions that Galtung identifies as defining his centre-periphery distinction. Since this division of the world into Centre and Periphery nations is fundamental to Galtung's model, it is contended that this approach to testing is more appropriate than simply examining the correlations between various dependence and development variables. Seven operational measures of the centre-periphery distinction are employed, using data for sixty-eight developed and less developed countries.

The cluster analysis confirms that certain countries can indeed be identified with Galtung's ideal-types of Centre and Periphery. Thus, there is one Centre group comprising twenty countries, which are high on development dimensions, centrally located in the interaction structure, on top of the vertical interaction relation, and having relatively low disharmony of interest domestically. Then, there is a group of thirteen, predominantly Latin America, Periphery countries which exhibit precisely the opposite pattern. Examination of the other groupings obtained, comprising countries which are in the Centre relative to one dimension and in the Periphery relative to another, supports Galtung's contention that vertical interaction is the major source of inequality among nations.

This ability to identify typical and atypical cases is a particular strength of the cluster analysis approach. Repeating this type of analysis at regular intervals would make it possible to identify countries that are changing their position in the centre-periphery network and should thus provide a fruitful source for theories about the dynamics of economic imperi alism.
The Attribution of Peaceful Intentions to the Visit by Sadat to Jerusalem and Subsequent Implications for Peace
Authors: Tabory Ephraim
Published: March 2007

The change of Israeli public opinion toward the possibility of a peaceful settlement in the Middle East is judged to be the result of the attribution of true, peaceful intentions to the Egyptians as a result of their president's visit to Jerusalem. The behavioral change by the Egyptian president and the resulting change in behavior among the Israeli leaders itself brings attitude change and increases the momentum to reach a settlement.
Some Unanticipated Consequences of Terrorism
Authors: Bonanate Luigi
Published: March 2007

The spread of terrorism in democratic societies forces one to examine once more the rela tionship between society and political violence. From a conceptualization of terrorism based on the cross between two types of characteristics (tactical-strategic; instrumental-finalistic) some observations appear which make common explanations of the causes of terrorism unsatisfactory. For this one might substitute the hypothesis that societies which must cope with terrorism are 'blocked', i. e. incapable of advancing and at the same time immune to disintegration. In this interpretation, the appearance of terrorism becomes an indicator that the society in question is only apparently democratic. But, at the same time, this study denounces the inability of terrorism to eliminate the block, to the point of involuntarily acting as a restabilizing element.
The World Bank and the Small Farmers
Authors: Payer Cheryl
Published: March 2007

The new emphasis of the World Bank on lending to the 'small farmer' in fact means an attack on the self-provisioning peasantry aimed at forcing them into closer participation in the market economy. This aim is sometimes achieved forcibly, as in settlement projects, and sometimes through manipulation of price relationships or through a change in tenure systems to create a private market in land: institutional credit as well as private usury can lead to debt peonage.
Social Position and American Foreign Policy Attitudes: 1952—1972
Authors: Simon Jeffrey D.
Published: March 2007

One of the more intriguing theories to be formulated in the field of public opinion has been Johan Galtung's conceptualization of a center-periphery continuum in a given society and its effect on policy attitudes. Using an eight variable index as a measure of social position, Galtung found the center of Norwegian society to be gradualist, consistent, and optimistic in its foreign policy orientation, while the periphery was absolutist, inconsistent, and pessi mistic.

The aim of this article was to confront Galtung's theory with new data in a different society over a twenty-year period. Using United States data as gathered by the Survey Research Center between 1952 and 1972, the general finding was a partial rejection of Galtung's theory. The periphery was not more pessimistic than the center, but was less consistent in some of its foreign policy attitudes. Surprisingly, we found the center to be more likely than the periphery to favor 'tough' foreign policies, and was consistently the main supporters for escalation of the Korean and Vietnam wars, and for keeping soldiers overseas during the non-war survey years of 1956 and 1960.

Our conclusion was that Galtung's social position index is a useful analytical tool for separating certain foreign policy attitudes among the American public. However, we found no support for Galtung's original fear that the periphery would be a negative factor in the establishment of a peace-oriented public opinion.
Foreign Aid and Voting in the UN General Assembly, 1967—1976
Authors: Rai Kul B.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the relationship between foreign (economic) aid and the General Assembly votes for the period 1967-76. The countries included in this study are the United States, the Soviet Union, and those of their aid recipients which are considered less developed. Two related hypotheses, one on the use of aid as an inducement and the other as a reward or a punishment, are tested. The methods used are Index of Agreement, devised by Arend Lijphart, and Pearson's r. The findings indicate that the American aid is more effective as an inducement and the Soviet aid is more effective as a reward or a punishment. The former has a closer association with the General Assembly votes from 1967-73 than in later years. Economic aid is increasingly used by the United States more to serve its security interests in the Middle East than for any other purpose, and it is possible that not so much of a return for the American aid is expected in the UN as was the case earlier.
Another approach to a Theory on the Causes of International War
Authors: Gantzel Klaus Jürgen
Published: March 2007

Comparative research on the causes of war not only plays a minor role in the Social Sciences but is also rather one sided because of the dominance of quantitative methods. These methods are very important, but up to now the cumulative effects of such research have been rather small, and their usefulness for practical peace policy seems negligible. This regrettable state of research is mainly due to the fact that it is not based on a systematic frame of reference offering substantial categories for analysis.

This article presents the draft of a research project aiming at the construction of such a frame of reference. Following a societal approach and using the ideas and methods of historical sociology, social history, and political economics, we intend to make case studies of 13 international wars between 1920 and 1965 and to compare their results. The provisional guide-line for the case studies and their comparison starts with the following main categories: the interests for war, and the groups or classes representing these interests; the socio- economic structure in which the interests are rooted; the political structure through which the interests are carried out; the military apparatus as the instrument for action.
Capitalism and Armaments: Business Cycles and Defense Spending in the United States 1945—1979
Authors: Krell Gert
Published: March 2007

Three possible economic explanations of U.S. military spending are examined: 1) the MIC explanation, 2) the economic stabilization and electoral defense cycle explanation, 3) the capitalist growth imperative explanation. Conditions for these explanations to be valid are formulated and tested with data about the development of defense spending, the U.S. economy, the business cycle, and fiscal policy, as well as an analysis of the Economic Reports and of secondary sources about U.S. defense and economic policies.

All three economic explanations are considered inadequate. It is true that defense cuts have sometimes aggravated a recession, and that on other occasions defense has served as a cushion, or even worked more strongly anticyclically, when foreign policy crises occurred at the time of economic downturns. It is also true that military expenditures have played a role in fiscal policy.

However, there have been economic reasons for increases and for cuts in the defense budget, and the amounts involved are rather small in absolute or relative terms. Defense is an important, but not the decisive factor in the U.S. business cycle; its weight has decreased substantially. There has been even no absolute growth in U.S. defense spending since the early fifties (in constant prices), and some absolute indicators have declined. Mostly, changes in U.S. military expenditures can and can only be explained by international and foreign/defense policy developments and considerations. These factors should be taken much more seriously.
The Current Polish Economic Crisis and How to Overcome It
Authors: Rakowski Mieczyslaw
Published: March 2007

The deep economic, societal, and political crisis in Poland calls for formulating programmes to overcome the crisis, especially because bureaucratic-technocratic groups, still in power, do not see, and cannot see, any positive way out.

In this paper, main policies for overcoming the economic crisis are identified and discussed from the point of view of their combined implementation. These are: realizations of principles of social justice, democratization of social relations, changes in economic strategy, in technological and structural policy towards agriculture, in the system of economy's functioning and in the quality of life.

Finally, some comments are given on the shape of a long-term strategy for Poland's economic development.
Critique of Nuclear Extinction
Authors: Martin Brian
Published: March 2007

The idea that global nuclear war could kill most or all of the world's population is critically examined and found to have little or no scientific basis. A number of possible reasons for beliefs about nuclear extinction are presented, including exaggeration to justify inaction, fear of death, exaggeration to stimulate action, the idea that planning is defeatist, exaggeration to justify concern, white western orientation, the pattern of day-to-day life, and reformist political analysis. Some of the ways in which these factors inhibit a full political analysis and practice by the peace movement are indicated. Prevalent ideas about the irrationality and short duration of nuclear war and of the unlikelihood of limited nuclear war are also briefly examined.
The Debate within NATO and the 'China Card'
Authors: Nass Matthias , Oldag Andreas
Published: March 2007

In recent years the 'traditional' alliance system of the post World War II period has undergone rapid change. Both superpowers, the U.S. and the Soviet Union, which have dominated the East-West conflict, and similarly the organization of intra-alliance relationships in the Eastern and Western bloc, are today confronted with relatively strong 'second' powers. The superpower conflict U.S.-USSR is complemented by ascending hegemonic conflicts U.S.-Western Europe and USSR-China. The Soviet-Chinese schism started already in the late 1950's. In the early eighties the Western Alliance is strained by severe con flicts, perhaps demonstrating a political process which started much earlier in the Eastern bloc. There are not only different perceptions of the Soviet threat but also different approaches to security policy between Western Europeans and Americans. The 'diversion of power' within the Western and Eastern bloc has initiated a political process in which the 'second' powers like Western Europe or China are trying to define their own security interests.

The article tries to examine the current political situation in NATO and possible forms of cooperation between Western Europe and China.
Arab Nationalism and Palestine
Authors: Joffé E.G.H.
Published: March 2007

Despite the fact that the Arab-Israeli conflict is the critical issue in the Arab World, there is a striking lack of sympathy with the specific demands of the Palestinians, both amongst Arab regimes and the Muslim populations in the area. National consciousness has few indigenous roots in the Middle East because of the assumptions of universality within Islam. When it did arise, it was a specific response to European technological dominance and political aggressiveness and to the newly-awakened ethnic con sciousness of the late Ottoman empire. Moreover, it did not express itself as nationalism in the European sense. Instead it turned to the ready-made vehicle of Arabic to define a much wider entity — the Arab Nation. The strong Muslim component involved in this ultimately made the concept acceptable to Arab population at large.

Three different and at times conflicting concepts — Muslim, Arabic and secular identity — confronted European colonialism and Zionism until 1948. These concepts altered only when the Palestinians began to create an effective national community after 1967, leading to an ideological contradiction within the Arab World that explains the ambivalence shown towards the Palestinian issue today. Arabism has been shown to be vacuous and divisive, whereas nation-states, with their claims to secular ethnic nationalism, have led to Camp David in the case of Egypt, and the Iran-Iraq War elsewhere. The only remaining source of ideological relevance for the Muslim World is a return to pure Islamic social organization, and this rejects all question of secular nationalism. In short, although the issue of Israel as an alien intrusion within the Muslim World is relevant, the issue of Palestinian nationalism is not.
Review Essay: Philosophers Crossing Borders Recent Literature on Ethics and International Relations
Authors: Malnes Raino
Published: March 2007

Recent years have seen an upsurge of interest among moral philosophers in questions of international distribution and the relationship between rich and poor countries. Efforts are being made, in the first place, to replace the prevalent image of international relations as a Hobbesian 'state of nature' with a model in which more room is left for moral choice. In the second place, the foundation, content and limits of our obligations to join in the combat of poverty are put under scrutiny. The essay discusses some of the problems raised by this application of normative theory to issues which in many ways are ill-suited for moral theorizing.
Peace Research and Politics within the Field of Societal Demands
Authors: Jahn Egbert
Published: March 2007

Peace Research in the Federal Republic of Germany has been supported since 1970 by all political parties, employers' organizations, trade unions and churches, the background being international détente. At the end of the seventies the relative consensus of the social forces began to break down. Three political ten dencies emerged, each formulating different demands towards peace research: détente politicians, con servative opposition to détente, and the peace movement opposing the arms race. Peace research should avoid being a servant of one of these political trends; it should try to find an audience among the whole of society for the two purposes of peace research: the everlasting 'realpolitische' task of war prevention under the present intergovernmental conditions and the future oriented task of creating the conditions for positive peace and the abolition of the system of deterrence, military threat and structural violence. This article has been written for the tenth anniversary of the Frankfurt Peace Research Institute in 1981.
Peace and Development Contradictions and Compatibilities
Authors: Hettne Bjørn
Published: March 2007

A 'positive' (analytical-descriptive) approach to the study of the peace-development relationship is con trasted to a value-oriented (normative) one. It is argued that both approaches are fruitful and that much can be gained from reconciling the two rather than making a too strong distinction between them. This facilitates a problem-oriented and solution-oriented research.

Three elements are identified as necesssary in problem-oriented research: the analysis of the problem, the exploration of alternatives, and the identification of social carriers of alternative development. Pre liminary analysis indicates that 'mainstream' models of development (i.e. growth and modernization models) create internal and external conflicts that breed and feed the arms race. Consequently, the basic argument is that the proposed causal link between disarmament and development — the former creating the latter — should be reversed:

Rather than to conceive of disarmament as a condition for development, one would argue that development — that is development of another kind — is a condition for disarmament. The main carriers of another development in present-day industrial countries — carriers, that is, of 'counterpoint' ideas and values — are the 'post-materialist' movements such as the environmental, women's liberation, peace, and ethnic and linguistic movements. In the Third World, there are other, but corresponding, forces which favour another development.
Paradigms of Political Integration and Unification: Applications to Korea
Authors: Haas Michael
Published: March 2007

Since national independence and national unification are often viewed as norms of the international polity, divided states and peoples are considered abnormal, and there are a variety of theories seeking to show how a divided people can achieve unification. Some theories stress the role of attitudes, others focus on material conditions, such as levels of communication and trade. In the study of integrative efforts in Western Europe, there has been some controversy over the assessments based on disparate theoretical perspectives. In order to identify the issues involved, the paper provides a guide to the theories and definitions used by the following: Karl Deutsch, Ernst Haas, David Mitrany, Joseph Nye, Amitai Etzioni, Leon Lindberg and Stuart Scheingold, Johan Galtung, and others. Applications of integration theory paradigms to Third World countries have demonstrated additional problems in academic theorizing about political unification. Nonetheless, while interest in European integration is decreasing, the era of the New International Economic Order presupposes increased concern for integrative efforts in the Third World. The paper concludes with an examination of current prospects toward Korean unification in light of existing theoretical approaches and trends. The main need today is to construct an infrastructure of informal interaction between the peoples of North and South. After social communication is frequent, the two regimes can take up proposals for formal integration in more practical terms.
Alternative Defense Polieies and the Peace Movement
Authors: Dankbaar Ben
Published: March 2007

In recent years several alternative defense policies have been developed which promise to diminish or eliminate the role of nuclear weapons in the defense of Western Europe, thereby fulfilling a major demand of the peace movement. It is argued that these alternatives and the peace movement have a common political background in the changing relaitonship between the U.S. and Western Europe. Furthermore, it is shown that the alternatives are also part of a long-standing debate on the uses of modern technology for defense. Presently developing NATO doctrine (Deep Strike) can be seen as a specific solution to both the issues of relations within the alliance and of military technology. Criticism of this doctrine by proponents of alternative defense policies is presented, clarifying the criteria used in the construction of the alternatives. Three types of alternatives are then characterized. First the proposals for No First Use and Inflexible Response, which are mainly concerned with the use and non-use of nuclear weapons; then the proposals for a conventional forward defense; lastly the proposals for conventional defense in depth. In a final paragraph it is shown how the different elements of these alternatives could merge in a general new approach to security in Europe. The prospects for this alternative approach to find political support are discussed briefly.
The Insurance Factor? An Assessment of War Costs
Authors: Smith Theresa Clair
Published: March 2007

The arms racing literature includes studies of definitional questions, identification of racers, mathematical modelling, and assessments of the risks or benefits of ongoing races. The nature of the relationship between arms racing and the outbreak of interstate war has also received some attention. Relatively little theoretical or empirical work has been directed to the questions of whether wars following arms racing differ systema tically from other conflicts. Contrary to some recent assessments, arms race-related wars are argued here to be on the average of greater duration, magnitude, and severity than are other wars. In the Correlates of War data, arms race-connected wars as a separate class of events exact significantly higher casualties and tend to be somewhat longer in both calendar- and and nation-months than other wars. Significant differences exist in the entire sample, and in the sample of wars remaining after the outliers have been removed, which argues that the effects uncovered are not statistical accidents and are not artifacts of unusually lengthy or extensive wars.
Contradicting Peace Proposals in the Palestine Conflict
Authors: Nordquist Kjell-Åke
Published: March 2007

The article is an attempt to evaluate structurally different types of solution proposals to the Palestine conflict. These types are named 'Greater Israel', 'canton state', 'separate states' and 'Palestine'. The basic question concerns which of them is most likely to promote a durable settlement. Four hypotheses based on conflict research are applied as a gauge in the solution assessment. The hypotheses assume that a durable solution is more likely if (1) the parties' subjective conflict definitions are employed in a proposal, (2) if a proposal regulates basic and/or indivisible values, (3) if a proposal is realized at a low military level and (4) if a proposal promotes the realization of Human Rights. Of the solution proposals, the 'Separate states' proposal is most often in accordance with the assumptions of conditions for a durable settlement, and is thus the most promising proposal for a durable solution. 'Greater Israel', which is similar to the official Israeli interpretation of the Camp David Agreement, seems to have the lowest probability as a durable solution in comparison to the three others.
The American Public and the Soviet Union: The Domestic Context of Discontent
Authors: Nincic Miroslav
Published: March 2007

This article seeeks to further our understanding of the forces that shape US-Soviet relations. The author examines the notion that the ups and downs in these relations are caused by shifts in the external interests of the two super powers. He concludes that external circumstances of this nature may establish a ceiling beyond which relations cannot improve, but that their fluctuating nature must largely be accounted for by changing domestic political conditions, primarily within the United States. Shifts in US public moods toward the Soviet Union is one particu larly significant internal condition, and the determinants of these moods are examined. As it does not appear that public perceptions of the USSR can be solely accounted for by Soviet behavior, the author examines the hypothesis that public feelings toward Russia are partly shaped by national frustrations within the United States. Specifically, it is hypothesized that, as the economic conditions of the American public deteriorate, this public will feel more hostile toward Moscow, and vice versa. There are two reasons why this might be so. To begin with, externally directed hostility might fulfil a cathartic function for a public which is dissatisfied with its current circumstances. Secondly, and less directly, a government might seek to deflect attention from unsolved domestic problems by exciting animosity toward external rivals. The hypothesis is subjected to statistical testing and appears, on the basis of the evidence, to be confirmed. The author suggests some implications for our study of foreign policy.
Grassroots and Gewaltfreie Aktionen: A Study of Mass Mobilization Strategies in the West German Peace Movement
Authors: Mushaben Joyce Marie
Published: March 2007

The West German peace movement of the eighties has been subject to many of the 'ebbs and flows' cha racteristic of protest movements of the late sixties and early seventies, with one important exception. In contrast to the more doctrinaire Marxist/socialist orientations evinced by those earlier movements, the mobilization against the deployment of Pershing II and cruise missiles has been grounded in sincere ef forts on the part of core activists to develop a German tradition of non-violence and civil disobedience. The author presents a catalogue of strategies employed by movement participants since the pro mulgation of the 1979 NATO double-track decision, divided into the subcategories of consciousness- raising or 'mobilization' activities, and direct action or 'escalation' activities. The extensive but by no means comprehensive list of possible protest actions seeks to maximize the opportunities for participa tion and to intensify one's personal identification with the movement at the grassroots level. Even though they have proved unsuccessful in blocking additional theater nuclear deployments, peace pro testers are judged to have contributed significantly to the 'democratization' of postwar German society.
Citizens' Peace Movement in the Soviet Baltic Republics
Authors: Taagepera Rein
Published: March 2007

A citizens' peace movement emerged in the Soviet Baltic republics in January 1980, when about 23 Lithuanians, Estonians, and Latvians signed an antiwar declaration in the wake of Soviet military in volvement in Afghanistan. The concern for peace was intertwined with, but distinct from, concerns for national autonomy, civil rights, and ecology. The movement culminated with a proposal in October 1981 that the Baltic republics be enclosed in the Nordic Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone. This proposal was signed by 38 Latvians, Lithuanians, and Estonians, in response to Brezhnev's offer to consider some NWFZ-related measures 'applicable to our own territory'. At least five of the signatories have been jailed since then, and at least in one case the NWFZ proposal figured among the most incriminating char ges. Despite some remaining problems of wording, the Baltic Letter on the NWFZ represented a major advance from uncompromising declaratory dissent toward advocacy of specific and negotiable mea sures. The Baltic action preceded and partly inspired the formation of the now-defunct citizens' peace group in Moscow, 1982. The demand for inclusion of the Baltic republics in the Nordic NWFZ was re peated in a December 1983 letter by unnamed Estonian Peace Supporters to the Stockholm disarmament conference, in a rather declaratory style. Although the civil and religious rights movement remains strong in Lithuania, detentions seem to have broken up the Baltic citizens-initiative peace movement for the time being.
Normative Constraints on the Use of Force Short of War
Authors: Kegley Charles W. , Raymond Gregory A.
Published: March 2007

In order to ascertain whether international legal norms can contribute to the inhibition of recourse to war by states, a 'focused comparison' of norm change and the frequency with which serious disputes be tween states escalated to war was made of two discrete historical systems, the Metternichean Concert (1816-1848) and the so-called period of European unification (1849-1870) prior to the Bismarkian Con cert. The evidence suggests the capacity of norms to constrain war is contingent upon the ability of the great powers to reach consensus on, give salient attention to, and create a meaningful international se curity regime. In addition, that regime's rules must specify the conditions under which forcible methods short of war are permissible, including a definition of when retorsion and reprisal are permissible pro cedures for the redress of grievances. However, the historical evidence indicates that these conditions are met only rarely, and that the formation of such an international security regime is ephemeral and is governed by a cyclical process. The study concludes with an examination of the implications of these findings for the maintenance of peace in the contemporary global system.
What Is a "Normal" Child?
Authors: Harris Albert J.
Published: March 2007

What lies beneath the surface is as fasci nating and profitable an area for explora tion in the social sciences as in the physi cal sciences. In the accompanying report by Mr. Harris, Director of the Educational Clinic at Queens College, New York City, we are given a glimpse of what educational clinics are finding out about the below- the-surface structures of personality and learning ability in school children who are judged by their teachers to be "normal." This simply-written but forceful report suggests many lines of inquiry which are of immediate interest to those responsible for the education of teachers.—Douglas E. Scates, Editor.
Research in Teacher Education
Authors: Cruickshank Donald R. , Kennedy John J.
Published: March 2007

The Research in Teacher Education section is devoted to re ports and reviews of research that have implications for teacher education. Research reports that address the topics of teacher effec tiveness and life in classrooms are particularly welcome. Manu scripts should be as brief as possible (5 to 15 double-spaced pages), and they should conform to traditional scientific standards This issue of the Journal and the style manual published by the University of Chicago should be consulted in matters relating to style and presentation. Submit manuscripts in triplicate, accompanied by a 100-150 word abstract, to the Journal of Teacher Education, AACTE, One Dupont Circle, Suite 610, Washington, D.C., 20036.
100th Issue of the Review : The Four Ages of Post-War British Policy Debate
Authors: Minford Patrick
Published: March 2007

The NIESR has been for 25 years at the centre of the British macroeconomic policy debate. This seems to be a good occasion to look back critically over that debate and the NIESR's role in it. That role it has always taken very seriously, even though it has often involved painstaking exposition to non-economists of well known economic issues. In this it has continued a tradition actively followed by Keynes, of policy commitment and persuasion as well as the pursuit of research and its dispassionate dissemination. This tradition is frowned on across the Atlantic; there ‘scholars’ are not encouraged to dirty their hands with policy, at least until retirement. So be it; here our society expects greater involvement by its scholars, and he that pays the piper must call the tune.
The Exchange Rate, Interest Rates and the Current Balance ln a Forward-Looking Model
Authors: Gurney Andrew
Published: March 2007

In March this year, after a year in which policy appeared to be aimed at achieving stability against EMS currencies, the pound was allowed to rise sharply in response to large capital inflows. As with many fluctuations in exchange rates, this development was puzzling in that the prospects for the balance of payments suggested that the rise in sterling would not prove sustainable. On the other hand, high UK interest rates, particularly in relation to those available in EMS countries, provided some rationale for a temporary rise. This note uses a simple forward-looking equation for the exchange rate to illustrate the implications of alternative paths for interest rates and the balance of payments. A number of simulations are presented to illustrate the key elements of this approach.