The Supply Of Canadian Hydrocarbons To The United States
Authors: Haun David D. 
Published: December 2007

Haun, David D., Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Calgary, Canada

This paper was prepared for the 44th Annual California Regional Meeting of the Society of Petroleum Engineers of AIME, to be held in San Francisco, California, April 4–5, 1974. Permission to copy is restricted to an abstract of not more than 300 words. Illustrations may not be copied. The abstract should contain conspicuous acknowledgement of where and by whom the paper is presented. Publication elsewhere after publication in the JOURNAL OF PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY or the SOCIETY OF publication in the JOURNAL OF PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY or the SOCIETY OF PETROLEUM ENGINEERS JOURNAL is usually granted upon request to the Editor PETROLEUM ENGINEERS JOURNAL is usually granted upon request to the Editor of the appropriate journal provided agreement to give proper credit is made.

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In 1973 the Canadian oil industry produced 2.0 million barrels per day of crude oil which in world terms makes Canada a relatively small producer. The country ranked 9th in terms of producer. The country ranked 9th in terms of 1972 crude oil production with 3.4% of the total world rate and 15th in terms of remaining reserves with 1.5% of the world total of 560 billion barrels. Exports to the United States in 1973 averaged 1,127 thousand barrels per day of crude oil and pentanes plus, which accounted only for 6.5% of the total U.S. demand for all hydrocarbons (or 35% of U.S. crude oil imports), but it did amount to 58% of Canada's total production. Production of conventional crude production. Production of conventional crude from the presently producing area, the western Canadian Sedimentary Basin, is expected to continue at the present level for only a few years and then show a sharp decline. Intensive development of synthetic oil from tar sands and heavy oil areas could to some extent mitigate this decline, but the availability of frontier oil in the 1980's will be necessary to recover to the present supply situation. As a result of present supply situation. As a result of increased demand in present Canadian market areas for Western crude and the additional demand resulting from the construction of the Montreal Pipeline, the volume of exports to the U.S. will drop sharply by the end of this decade. The only alternatives to a complete cessation of crude oil exports by the early 1980's would be earlier movement of Mackenzie Delta oil to west-Coast markets through the Alyeska Pipe line or a smaller supply to Montreal than now planned. These alternatives will, however, only reduce the rate of decline in exports to the U.S.

Introduction

In 1973 the Canadian oil industry produced 2.0 million barrels per day of crude oil and pentanes plus and 6.1 billion cubic feet per pentanes plus and 6.1 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas. Canada rated 9th in terms of 1972 crude oil production with 3.4% of the total world rate and 15th in terms of remaining reserves with 1.5% of the world total of 560 billion barrels.

During the year 1973 the Canadian industry exported to the United States an average of 1,127,000 barrels per day of crude oil and pentanes plus and 2,821 MMCF/Day of natural pentanes plus and 2,821 MMCF/Day of natural gas. While the levels represented only a small proportion of total United States demand (6.5% proportion of total United States demand (6.5% of the demand for all hydrocarbon liquids, and 4.4% of natural gas consumption), they did account for high proportions of Canada's productive capacity, 58% of oil producibility productive capacity, 58% of oil producibility and 46% of pipeline gas volumes.