bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Cloudy With a Chance of Pain: A Citizen Science Project to Understand How Weather Affects Pain
Authors: Schultz David
Published: June 2022

The belief that weather influences people’s health has been prevalent for millennia. Recent studies on the relationship between weather and pain for those who suffer from chronic pain remain indeterminate, with some studies finding strong effects and others finding no effects; most studies face limitations to their study design or dataset size. To address these limitations, a U.K.-wide smartphone study Cloudy with a Chance of Pain was conducted over 15 months with 10,584 citizen scientists who suffer from chronic pain, producing the largest dataset both in duration and number of participants. Compared to other similar citizen-science studies, our retention of participants was substantially better, with 15% still entering data nearly every day after 200 days.  This presentation describes the study, the data collection, and results of this project, revealing the strongest evidence to date of the effect of weather upon pain in weather-sensitive individuals.

Analysis of the dataset using synoptic climatology and compositing revealed the daily weather associated with a prevalence of high pain and low pain across the population. Specifically, our results indicate that the top 10% of days with a high percentage of participants (about 20%) experiencing a pain event (represented here by a +1 change or greater in their pain level on a 5-point scale; referred to as a high-pain day) were associated with below-normal pressure, above-normal humidity, higher precipitation rate, and stronger wind. In contrast, the bottom 10% of days with a small percentage of participants (about 10%) experiencing a pain event (a low-pain day) were associated with above-normal pressure, below-normal humidity, lower precipitation rate, and weaker wind. Thus, these synoptic weather patterns support the beliefs of many participants who said that low pressure—and its accompanying weather—was associated with a pain event.

S. W. Tromp Foundation Award Winner 2020: Outstanding Achievement in Biometeorology
Kassandra: A Prototype of a Customizable, Probabilistic Warning and Information System
Authors: Niebuhr Heiko , Hagedorn Renate , Feige Kathrin , Jerg Matthias
Published: June 2022

To meet the individual needs requested by many expert users of DWD products, the idea of a new customizable branch for our future warning system was born. Based on the prospects of a fully automatic warning system, the possibility of individual warning information could be realized by giving users the option to configure their own parameters and settings for warnings and reports. To investigate and test such a system both internally and together with our users, and also to determine the meteorological and technical requirements and challenges, a prototype named Kassandra (acronym for "configurable automated weather warning information based on individual user profiles and requirements" (translated from German)) has been developed at DWD during the last years.

By using a configurable web portal, Kassandra gives users the ability to create and manage their own profiles, which consist of warning location, period, weather element and criteria and also probabilistic or time-based thresholds. Using the wide range of available EPS models at DWD, the user configurations are periodically analyzed. Warnings or reports are generated and sent to the users by mail or messenger (PUSH) in case of transgression. The system also gives users the possibility for PULL requests at any time by using the Kassandra web portal or web API. Especially the web API enables users to include individual warning information into their own automated processes.

In this presentation the Kassandra system and its concepts are shown and also the opportunity to try it out is given at the conference.
Large Eddy Simulation of Surface Heterogeneity Induced Secondary Circulation with Background Winds
Authors: Zhang Lijie , Poll Stefan , Kollet Stefan
Published: June 2022

Land surface heterogeneity affects the surface heat flux distribution and induces secondary circulations at a certain scale. Background wind may significantly influence the effect of surface heterogeneity on secondary circulation. In this study, we investigate how background wind affects the evolution of the atmospheric boundary layer, focusing on the influence of the formation of secondary circulation. We used a coupled ICON-LES (Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic Large Eddy Simulation mode) with a land surface model (TERRA-ML) to simulate the development of the atmospheric boundary layer over a river corridor mimicked by continuously distributed soil moisture under different background wind conditions. The atmospheric domain size is 4.8 km x 4.8 km x 4.2 km in X, Y, and Z directions with a horizontal and vertical spatial grid spacing of 50 m using double-periodic boundary conditions. All simulations have the same initial well-mixed atmospheric conditions and constant incoming radiation of 700 Wm-2   with varying background winds with different wind speeds (0 to 16 ms-1) and directions (cross-valley, parallel-valley, or mixed).

The atmospheric states are decomposed into three parts: ensemble-averaged, mesoscale, and turbulence. We show that wind speed and surface heterogeneity jointly affect the surface energy distribution, independent of the wind direction. The secondary circulation structure persists under the parallel-valley wind regardless of wind speed but is destroyed when the cross-valley wind is stronger than the mesoscale horizontal wind speed. The maximum mesoscale vertical wind variance reflects the secondary circulation strength. We show that the secondary circulation strength positively correlates with the Bowen ratio and stability parameter (-Zi/L)  under cross-valley wind and mixed conditions.
Links between large-scale heavy precipitation over the Czech Republic and atmospheric circulation in regional climate model outputs
Authors: Beranova Romana , Kyselý Jan
Published: June 2022

Large-scale heavy precipitation events (LHPEs) are associated with negative impacts on society, mainly as they may trigger floods and landslides. Therefore, it is important to better understand underlying physical mechanisms leading to these extremes and how they are reproduced in climate models. The present study evaluates ability of regional climate models (RCMs) to reproduce relationships between LHPEs over the Czech Republic and atmospheric circulation. We use an ensemble of 32 RCM simulations with the 0.11° resolution, taken from the Euro-CORDEX project. The historical simulations (1951-2005) are compared against observations from the E-OBS gridded data set. LHPEs are defined as days with at least 70% of all grid points over a given area with precipitation amounts exceeding the 90th grid-specific percentile of the seasonal distribution of daily amounts. The association with atmospheric circulation is investigated through circulation types derived from sea level pressure using airflow indices (direction, strength and vorticity). The analysis is carried out separately for summer (JJA) and winter (DJF) season.

In observations, the frequency of all LHPEs is higher in winter than summer, which is associated with larger importance of frontal stratiform precipitation in cold part of the year. The links of LHPEs to circulation differ between the seasons and between the western and eastern part of the examined area with varied Atlantic/Mediterranean influences. In winter, observed LHPEs are connected mainly with cyclonic type and westerly supertype. Connection with non-westerly and cyclonic-nonwesterly supertypes is more frequent only in the eastern region. The majority of RCMs simulate differences in circulation-to-precipitation link between the western and the eastern regions well. However, almost all RCMs overestimate the frequency of cyclonic type during LHPEs. In summer, the importance of cyclonic and non-westerly types in producing LHPEs increases compared to winter, and RCMs are able to capture this pattern. The prevailing type during events simultaneously occurring in both regions is cyclonic type with frequency 56%, which is 6 times higher than its mean summer occurrence. Only few models are able to simulate the strong link between events simultaneously occurring in both regions and cyclonic type. In conclusion, the method proposed for LHPEs is able to capture the precipitation events potentially leading to floods and may be suitable to characterize the flood-risk conditions in future climate scenarios.
Improving the hydrometeor classification at ground level in Belgium
Authors: Watelet Sylvain , Delobbe Laurent , Reyniers Maarten
Published: June 2022

Taking place at the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMIB), the ongoing 2-year PRECIP-TYPE project aims at improving the hydrometeor classification in Belgium through the use of dual-pol radar observations and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model output. Combining these two sources of information in a fuzzy logic scheme yields an estimate of the precipitation type (rain, hail, snow,...) at the height of the measurement of the radar. This information is then further processed by using vertical temperature, humidity and pressure profiles from NWP output in order to account for the melting process that can occur before precipitation reaches the ground. The output of this precipitation type product is compared to the crowdsourced weather reports sent by the users of the RMIB smartphone app. Such user reports can include the precipitation type as well as the size of the hydrometeors. These reports are ingested in a database of the RMIB and undergo reliability checks that allow an easier discrimination between realistic and unrealistic observations.

 

We present the step-by-step methodology followed to obtain this first product version, including an extended clutter filtering, and we demonstrate its capabilities for a few challenging cases. We discuss the identified uncertainties and the remaining open questions. Regarding the perspectives, several possibilities are considered to further enhance this preliminary precipitation type product, such as the merging of dual-pol observations obtained from several radars, the comparison with alternative schemes of hydrometeor classification or the inclusion of the citizen observations (RMIB app) within the classification scheme. An overview of these lines of research will be presented.
Dynamics of dry intrusion air streams and their relevance for extreme weather
Authors: Raveh-Rubin Shira , Fluck Elody , Givon Yonatan , Ilotoviz Eyal , Klaider Noy , Magaritz-Ronen Leehi , Nahum Stav , Rai Deepika , Silverman Vered , Yaari Tsruya
Published: June 2022

Dry intrusion (DI) air streams typically comprise the cold and dry sector of extratropical cyclones. These air parcels descend slantwise from the midlatitude upper troposphere towards the surface in lower latitudes, where the airstreams typically fan out behind the cyclone’s trailing cold front. In this talk I will outline recent results based on a Lagrangian-based global climatology of DIs using ECMWF reanalysis data, allowing progress in understanding the intrusions occurrence frequencies, dynamical interactions and association with extreme weather.

Using representative case studies and longer-term climatologies we find that DI air starts its descent from the upper troposphere behind midlatitude troughs of Rossby waves, often associated with Rossby wave breaking. When interacting with cyclones in the storm tracks, they are associated with strong cold fronts in the cyclone southwest quadrant (in the northern hemisphere) and with marked anomalies in the lower troposphere. Namely, dry and cold anomalies prevail, which together with strong winds, enhance surface turbulent ocean heat fluxes and destabilize the boundary layer there.

The modification of the lower troposphere by DIs entails a strong association with a diverse set of weather extremes, from heavy precipitation, strong winds and extreme cold temperatures, to wildfires and dust storms. For example, DIs enhance (i) the Mistral wind in southern France and its impact on deep convection in the water column in the Gulf of Lion; (ii) large-scale Saharan dust storms and long-range dust transport to Europe and the Middle East; and (iii) wildfires in southeast Australia, combining dryness with extreme temperatures and strong winds. Using the Lagrangian approach and feature diagnostics we further find that the surface extremes (such as cold temperatures) associated with DIs may extend beyond the midlatitudes, into subtropical and tropical regions.
The COPAT2 initiative of the CLM-Community: towards a recommended configuration of COSMO-CLM and ICON-CLM new model versions
Authors: Russo Emmanuele , Steger Christian , Geyer Beate , Petrik Ronny , Keuler Klaus , Rockel Burkhardt , Görgen Klaus , Ludwig Patrick , Feldmann Hendrik , Sulis Mauro , Fallah Bijan , Truhetz Heimo , Hagemann Ha , Schulz Jan-Peter , Pothapakula Praveen
Published: June 2022

The structural uncertainty of a climate model is defined as the range of outcomes that can be obtained through different representations of physical processes of the climate system, the selection of different unconstrained parameter values and different choices for the numerical solution of underlying fundamental equations. Exploring the range of these outcomes with the goal of determining a model configuration that produces results in closer agreement with observational data is defined as model calibration or tuning.

In this study, the preliminary results of the Coordinated Parameter Testing 2 (COPAT2) initiative of the CLM-Community are presented. In COPAT2, volunteer members of the community join forces together, with the objective of testing and providing recommended configurations for the new and final version of COSMO-CLM (6.0), as well as for the newly released regional climate model ICON-CLM, for climate modeling applications over the European CORDEX domain. 

A series of sensitivity tests is performed in which various configurations of the models are explored. The aspects that are tested have been carefully selected, based on expert judgment. In the case of COSMO-CLM 6.0, the primary focus is on newly introduced and recently updated parameterizations and physical schemes. For ICON-CLM, these  tests are the first ever conducted with the climate version of the model and are based on the operational configuration and on information of experiments performed for the development of the NWP mode of ICON.

The simulations are conducted at a horizontal resolution of approximately 12 km over Europe, using ERA5 reanalysis data as boundary conditions. In a first step, a series of relatively short tests is conducted over a 7-year period, from 1979 to 1985. Successively, depending on the sensitivity of the model to the applied changes in its configuration, a sub-set of simulations is extended over a total period of 12 years. The results are systematically analyzed with an evaluation suite that has been further developed and extended for COPAT2. The standardized analysis and condensation of results in very few indices summarizing the models performance allow for an easy and fast comparison of the quality of the different simulations.  

Beside introducing preliminary results of the conducted sensitivity tests, an overview of the calibration strategy followed in COPAT2 will be presented, including information on the selected metrics, employed observational data sets and further details inherent to the ranking of the different experiments.  
ECMWF’s experiences in virtual training and events
Authors: Hemingway Becky , Keeley Sarah , Stewart Chris
Published: June 2022

The ECMWF training offering covers a wide range of topics in support of operational numerical weather prediction, forecasting, the Copernicus Climate Change Services (C3S) and Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS). ECMWF is committed to providing education and training to its Member and Co-operating States as well as the wider meteorological community. During the global COVID pandemic it was essential that the continuity of service was maintained and training courses and events were delivered. As such we had to rapidly adjust the way our courses and events took place while ensuing a high quality learning experience for participants.

Delivering training courses and events online posed challenges for participants, trainers and presenters. Everyone had to adapt to utilising new technology alongside reduced trainer-participant interactions and networking while making sure learning and event objectives were still met and attendees were engaged. To do this ECMWF investigated a number of tools and methods to enhance participant interaction and engagement. These included: gather.town an online environment where participants created avatars and walked around the virtual ECMWF building interacting with each other, this environment was also used for classroom teaching and training activities; Padlet for collaboration and sharing of documents and presentations; so called ‘Social Breaks’ where participants were randomly assigned into rooms for an informal chat akin to in-person coffee breaks; and Q&A and polling features in tools like Zoom, Slido and Vevox to enhance engagement.

In this presentation we will detail and explore the different ways ECMWF have delivered virtual training courses and events, the new tools we have used, the challenges that we have faced and the lessons we have learned for delivering future courses and events.
Weather impacts on simulated indoor conditions
Authors: Korhonen Natalia , Velashjerdi Farahani Azin , Jokisalo Juha , Kosonen Risto , Lestinen Sami , Jylhä Kirsti
Published: June 2022

According to the current National Building Code of Finland, the room temperature in new residential buildings should not exceed the threshold of 27 °C by more than 150 degree hours per year. The code also demands that new buildings pass the nearly zero-energy requirements for energy performance and conformity. The fulfilment of these requirements in the design phase of the new buildings needs to be verified by dynamic building performance simulation tools that use specific meteorological reference year weather data sets as hourly input. In addition to commercial purposes, such simulation software’s, like the IDA Indoor Climate and Energy (ICE) tool, may be used for education and research.

Here we describe several sets of hourly weather data that have been recently used in Finland as input to IDA-ICE simulations. TRY2020 data sets describe typical present-day weather conditions during twelve months that originate from different years of the period 1989-2018. They were selected based on a standard methodology (ISO 15927-4) with a few modifications. The same 30-year period was used to choose new cooling design days (1% risk) for Finland on the basis of another standard method (ISO 15927-2). HWS2018 data set, in turn, consists of weather observations of heatwave summer 2018.

All the data sets include the following variables: air temperature, relative humidity, global, diffuse and normal direct solar radiation as well as wind speed and direction. While the data sets describing the recent past climate are based on observations, their counterparts corresponding to future climates are based on CMIP5 climate model projections and delta-change methods.

The IDA-ICE tool was used, among others, to simulate the risk of too warm indoor conditions. According to the results, already nowadays during a prolonged heat wave the annual degree hours above 27 °C in apartment buildings without mechanical cooling may be several times the limit of 150. In the future, hotter summers are expected to become more common and the risk of overheating of dwellings will continue to increase. This would cause an increase in the heat-related health and mortality risks. Although solar protection windows and openable windows were found to be effective in reducing indoor temperatures, the results show that active cooling systems will be needed to eliminate the overheating risk.

Ref: Velashjerdi Farahani et al. 2020, https://doi.org/10.3390/app11093972
Monthly surface energy fluxes in ERA5-Land reanalysis: a comparison with FLUXNET observations.
Authors: Skalak Petr , Fischer Milan , Orság Matěj , Trnka Miroslav
Published: June 2022

We compare Earth's surface energy balance components (monthly mean radiation and energy fluxes) from the ERA5-Land reanalysis with their measured equivalents from FLUXNET stations in the period 2001-2018. The comparison (FLUXNET station vs. the nearest grid point of ERA5-Land) is focused on Central European sites with an elevation under 1000 m above sea level during the summer half of the year (April - September) that roughly corresponds to the growing season in Central Europe. FLUXNET stations are further divided into four groups according to biomes (and surface types) that they represent: grass, crop, forest or wetland. We put special emphasis on the turbulent heat fluxes: sensible (H) and latent heat (LE) heat flux and their relative share in a form of evaporative fraction (EF, a ratio of latent heat flux, LE, to the sum of both turbulent fluxes, H + LE). 

There's a perfect fit between monthly FLUXNET observations and ERA5-Land data in case of some radiation fluxes: incoming shortwave (SWin) or outgoing longwave (LWout) radiation. Incoming longwave radiation (LWin) is underestimated by ERA5-Land, while the score of reflected shortwave radiation (SWout) is mixed. 

Latent heat flux (LE) is overestimated by the reanalysis, while sensible heat flux (H) is lower in the reanalysis than in FLUXNET observations. This leads to overestimation of the evaporative fraction (EF) by ERA5-Land in the growing season, with monthly values of EF being mostly between 0.7 - 0.9. On the other hand, FLUXNET's EF values range from 0.2 to 1.0. When focused on individual biomes, the best fit between ERA5-Land and FLUXNET is seen for grass. The shape of "half-annual" (Apr - Sep) cycle is also well captured for grass locations. In other major biomes (cropland or forest) we see not only disagreement in terms of absolute values of H and LE fluxes (or EF) but in the shape of "half-annual" cycle too. There's no significant decline of EF in summer for cropland locations in ERA5-Land. The magnitude of a steady EF increase in forest sites of FLUXNET is weaker in ERA5-Land.

Acknowledgement: "SustES - Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797)”.
Extreme event attribution at Deutscher Wetterdienst - status and plans
Authors: Lorenz Philip , Tradowsky Jordis , Kreienkamp Frank
Published: June 2022

So-called "attribution studies" can be used to estimate the extent to which human-induced climate change is responsible for the change of occurrence frequency and intensity of individual weather or climate extremes. For such statistical analyses, mainly climate simulations with specially selected boundary conditions are used, as observational time series are often not yet sufficiently long.

For the production of rapid attribution studies, which publish results shortly after the event, a protocol has been developed in recent years by the World Weather Attribution Initiative (WWA, https://www.worldweatherattribution.org) and a Copernicus project. Many of the processing steps are currently carried out in the KNMI Climate Explorer (https://climexp.knmi.nl), an online application developed by the Dutch weather service and made freely available. The German Weather Service (DWD) uses the present protocol for its contributions to international attribution studies of the World Weather Attribution and carries out its own analyses.

Within the framework of “ClimXtreme - Climate Change and Extreme Events” (https://climxtreme.net), a research network funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research, the DWD is developing a workflow that automates many steps of an attribution analysis for extreme events occurring in Germany, including but not limited to performing calculations and creating figures. This reduces the processing time as well as ensures the robustness of results and enables researchers to focus on aspects of the attribution study that require expert knowledge.

The presentation will provide an overview of the current state of research, show results of attribution studies, and give an outlook on developments in the coming years.  
Sub-seasonal Arctic-midlatitude linkages as causal networks
Authors: Tietsche Steffen , Vitart Frederic , Balmaseda Magdalena
Published: June 2022

Arctic-midlatitude linkages are state-dependent and multi-facetted. Their faithful quantification on sub-seasonal time scales therefore requires methods that account for differences in the background state and reject spurious links arising from common drivers and strong autocorrelation. Here, we use causal network discovery methods that have these properties to establish causal linkages of sub-seasonal time series of selected atmospheric circulation and surface condition indices in the Arctic and Northern mid-latitudes. In order to obtain state-dependent and uncertainty-quantified linkages, we use a large set of sub-seasonal reforecasts from the ECMWF model cycle 47R1 with 11-member ensembles initialised on each day of the winters 1999/2000 to 2018/2019. Pooling forecasts started within a 10-day window allows enough samples to robustly estimate a causal-effect network valid for the window. State-dependence and uncertainty quantification of Arctic-midlatitude linkages is then possible by analysing he seasonal and year-to-year changes of the networks. As an application of the general methods, we discuss the causal links diagnosed for Northern Europe surface air temperature in winter. We chose this index because of its societal relevance and previously reported strong links between extreme cold winters in this region and Arctic sea ice anomalies. Somewhat surprisingly, on sub-seasonal time scales we do not detect significant links between Northern Europe surface air temperatures and Arctic sea ice indices, nor with the polar vortex strength. However, the North Atlantic Oscillation index and geopotential height at 500 hPa over the polar cap do have causal links to Northern Europe surface air temperatures as expected. Link strengths have a seasonal dependence, as well as substantial year-to-year changes. Our results demonstrate the value of large forecast ensembles for quantifying explicitly the state-dependence and uncertainty of Arctic-midlatitude linkages, and might provide guidance for reconciling some previously reported conflicting results.
Sources of predictability over the Mediterranean at seasonal time-scale: building up anempirical forecasting model
Authors: Rodríguez-Guisado Esteban , Rodríguez-Camino Ernesto
Published: June 2022

Although most operational seasonal forecasting systems are based on dynamical
models, empirical forecasting systems, built on statistical relationships between
present and future at seasonal time horizons conditions of the climate system, provide
a feasible and realistic alternative and a source of supplementary information. Here, a
new empirical model based on partial least squares regression is presented. Originally
designed as a flexible tool, the system is able to automatically select predictors from an initial pool and explore spatial fields looking for additional predictors.
the model can be run with many configurations including different predictands,
resolutions, leads and aggregation times. The model benefits from specific predictors
for the Mediterranean region unveiled in the frame of the MEDSCOPE project.  We
present here 2 sets of results: the first one from a configuration producing probabilistic forecasts of seasonal
(3 month averages) temperature and precipitation over the Mediterranean area, their verification and comparison
against a selection of state-of-the-art seasonal forecast systems based on dynamical
models in a hindcast period (1994-2015). The model is able to produce spatially
coherent anomaly patterns, and reach levels of skill comparable to those based on
dynamical models. To explore the potential of the model for producing skilful forecasts over reduced areas, a second set of results are calculated using higher resolution predictands over Iberia, again comparing its skill with that of a set of state of the art models. Examples of the model usage for evaluating the impact on skill of
certain predictor helping in the search and understanding of new sources of
predictability are also shown. 
Potential of renewable energy alongside the transportation infrastructure in Germany
Authors: Bär Franziska , Kaspar Frank , Streek Philipp , Rieck Deniz , Auerbach Markus
Published: June 2022

The 'Network of Experts' (BMDV-Expertennetzwerk) of the German Ministry for Digital and Transport (BMDV) is a network of German government agencies. Their main topic is the future-oriented transition of the transportation infrastructure in Germany. The main task of the topic area 5 (“renewable energies”) is to assess the potential of renewable energies along the transportation infrastructure in Germany. Germany’s national meteorological service DWD coordinates the topic area and is responsible for provision of meteorological data that is used in the assessments of the potential energy generation. Further partners in this activity are esp. the Federal Highway Research Institute (Bundesanstalt für Straßenwesen, BASt) and the the Federal Railway Authority (Eisenbahn Bundesamt (EBA) / Deutsche Zentrum für Straßenverkehrsforschung (DZSF)).

One focus in the first phase of the activity (2017 – 2019) was a pilot study in a small-scale area in Germany. It was evaluated to what extend the potential energy production with photovoltaics alongside the infrastructure fits to the temporal profile of energy needs for pumping requirements of the waterways. Estimating the potential energy production with photovoltaics does not only require radiation data, but also additional meteorological parameters, as the efficiency of the PV modules also depend on the ambient temperature. Therefore, high-resolution data from satellites (CMSAF SARAH-2) in combination with data from the regional reanalysis COSMO-REA6 have been used. Both datasets are produced by DWD and are publicly available. Quality assessments of the datasets have been performed.

In the current phase of the activity (2020 – 2023) the assessment is extended to to cover all of Germany. Currently, the main focus is the assessment of the potential of photovoltaics integrated in noise barriers along the railways and highways. A similar assessment for small wind turbines along the infrastructure is in preparation.

Reference:

Auerbach, M., Ebner von Eschenbach, A-D., Eichler, D., Gersdorf, F., Kaspar, F., Majewski, D., Niermann, D., Schima, B., Streek, P.: Einsatzpotenziale erneuerbarer Energien für Verkehr und Infrastruktur verstärkt erschließen: Ergebnisbericht des Themenfeldes 5 im BMVI-Expertennetzwerk für die Forschungsphase 2016 - 2019, Bundesministerium für Verkehr und digitale Infrastruktur (BMVI), Berlin, https://www.bmdv-expertennetzwerk.bund.de/DE/Publikationen/TFSPTBerichte/TF5_3Auflage.html
On the definition of appropriate eddy viscosity and eddy diffusivities for the surface layer of thermally driven slope winds 
Authors: Farina Sofia , Zardi Dino
Published: June 2022

Up-slope and down-slope winds are basic components of a variety of flows composing the system of thermally driven circulations over complex terrain. They commonly develop over inclines under daytime heating and nighttime cooling, respectively. The basic mechanisms of these flows are nowadays quite understood, after many research efforts performed in the last decades, including both intensive field measurements and high-resolution numerical model simulations. However, differently from the case of flat horizontal terrain, where Monin-Obukhov similarity theory provides a well-established conceptual framework, for the above winds the scientific community has not yet reached a consensus on unifying theories explaining the properties and structure of turbulence associated with them, e.g. in terms of generally applicable scaling laws. The latter would be beneficial for providing appropriate parameterizations in numerical models for weather and climate prediction, as well as for simulations of other atmospheric processes, such as pollutant transport, or for the evaluation of surface energy and water budgets for hydrological, glaciological, and ecological purposes.

Here we concentrate on the evaluation of the mixing properties of the surface layer associated with slope winds. In this layer strong slope-normal gradients are known to occur, and K-closures are expected to be reasonable closures for turbulent fluxes of momentum, heat and mass, provided appropriate expressions are found for eddy viscosity and eddy diffusivities. In the present contribution some solutions for K coefficients are proposed, based on the analysis of data from various field campaigns and similarity arguments. The resulting formulations are tested on the basis of their success in reproducing observed structures of first and second order moments.
Aviation Turbulence Forecasting at DWD with ICON: Methodology, Case Studies, and Verification
Authors: Goecke Tobias , Machulskaya Ekaterina , Geldenhuys Markus , Ungermann Jörn , Dörnbrack Andreas , Schumann Ulrich
Published: June 2022

We present a detailed evaluation of the turbulence forecast product eddy dissipation parameter (EDP) used at the Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). It is based on the turbulence parameterization scheme TURBDIFF, which is operational within the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic (ICON) numerical weather prediction model used operationally by DWD. For aviation purposes, the procedure provides the cubic root of the eddy dissipation rate ε1/3 as an overall turbulence index. This quantity is a widely used measure for turbulence intensity as experienced by aircraft. The scheme includes additional sources of turbulent kinetic energy with particular relevance to aviation, which are briefly introduced. These sources describe turbulence generation by the subgrid-scale action of wake eddies, mountain waves, and convection, as well as horizontal shear as found close to fronts or the jet stream. Furthermore, we introduce a postprocessing calibration to an empirical EDR distribution, and we demonstrate the potential as well as limitations of the final EDP-based turbulence forecast by considering several case studies of typical turbulence events. Finally, we reveal the forecasting capability of this product by verifying the model results against one year of aircraft in situ EDR measurements from commercial aircraft. We find that the forecasted EDP performs favorably when compared to the Ellrod index. In particular, the turbulence signal from deep convection, which is accounted for in the EDP product, is advantageous when spatial nonlocality is allowed in the verification procedure.

 

We further compare against data from the SOUTHTRAC campaign that took place in 2019 over the Andes.

In particular we compare high quality turbulence data from the HALO aircragt against ICON.

The model runs in global and also local mode. Since ICON is not used so far for aviation turbulence

forecasting at convectionn permitting scales we expect insights for the development

of future turbulence products. The focus is on turbulence generated by

mountain waves and jet stream dynamics.
Tryout of Kassandra: A Prototype of a Customizable, Probabilistic Warning and Information System
Authors: Niebuhr Heiko , Hagedorn Renate , Feige Kathrin , Jerg Matthias
Published: June 2022

To meet the individual needs requested by many expert users of DWD products, the idea of a new customizable branch for our future warning system was born. Based on the prospects of a fully automatic warning system, the possibility of individual warning information could be realized by giving users the option to configure their own parameters and settings for warnings and reports. To investigate and test such a system both internally and together with our users, and also to determine the meteorological and technical requirements and challenges, a prototype named Kassandra (acronym for "configurable automated weather warning information based on individual user profiles and requirements" (translated from German)) has been developed at DWD during the last years.

By using a configurable web portal, Kassandra gives users the ability to create and manage their own profiles, which consist of warning location, period, weather element and criteria and also probabilistic or time-based thresholds. Using the wide range of available EPS models at DWD, the user configurations are periodically analyzed. Warnings or reports are generated and sent to the users by mail or messenger (PUSH) in case of transgression. The system also gives users the possibility for PULL requests at any time by using the Kassandra web portal or web API. Especially the web API enables users to include individual warning information into their own automated processes.

During this poster session the opportunity to try out Kassandra is given. More information about the Kassandra system and its concepts are shown as an oral presentation in another session.
Progress with the High Value Datasets project and its potential to enhance the economic impact of the weather value chain
Authors: Pilar Jiri
Published: June 2022

In 2022 the European Commission has been monitoring and enforcing the transposition of the Open Data Directive in all EU Member States. Furthermore, it will identify a list of ‘high-value datasets’, whose re-use can bring particular benefits for society, the environment and the economy. Such data will have to be available for re-use for free, in machine-readable format, via APIs and, where relevant, as a bulk download. Meteorological data will likely represent an important part of high-value datasets. The Digital Europe Programme will support creation of common EU data spaces. Finally, two other new and upcoming pieces of legislation focus on easier sharing of data: the Data Governance Act (the Regulation was adopted by the co-legislators in May 2022) and the Data Act (the proposal was submitted to the co-legislators in February 2022).
Role of changing vegetation properties on the variability of Indian summer monsoon rainfall 
Authors: Budakoti Sachin , Ghosh Subimal
Published: June 2022

Land surface processes interact with the atmosphere through exchange of energy, water, mass and momentum to the atmosphere. Land surface processes plays a vital role in modulating the atmospheric circulation pattern and also influences the extreme events. Changing land surface processes influence the multi-scale temporal variabilities of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR). The impacts of the variability of vegetation parameters such as the Leaf Area Index (LAI) on the monsoon variations are not well explored. Here, we use the coupled land-atmosphere regional model Weather Research and Forecsating (WRF)-Community Land Model (CLM) to assess the same. We simulated ISMR for 15 years, from 2004 to 2018 with two different LAI inputs: interannually varying LAI and climatological LAI. We found that the simulations with varying LAI are performing better when compared with the observed data. Using information theory-based transfer entropy to understand causality, we confirmed that the varying LAI impacts monsoon variability at an interannual scale. We further assessed the impacts of varying LAI  on intraseasonal monsoon variations. We found that the duration of active and break spells of monsoon remain unperturbed by the LAI feedback. However, the varying LAI significantly impacts the intensity of the active and break spells. This is consistent across all the years. We found that during the dry years or during the dry spells under moisture stress, the land-atmosphere feedback gains its strength by generating more feedback links. The present work highlights the importance of considering varying vegetation properties in regional climate model for better representation of Indian summer monsoon.   
pyClim-SDM: a software for statistical downscaling of climate change projections with a graphical user interface.
Authors: Hernanz Alfonso , García-Valero Juan Andrés , Domínguez Marta , Correa Carlos , Rodríguez-Camino Ernesto
Published: June 2022

The climate change impact and adaptation communities need future scenarios with high resolution, which are usually achieved by Global Climate Models (GCMs) combined with Regional Climate Models or Statistical Downscaling Models. The relative computational cheapness of statistical downscaling, together with its capability of downscaling to single point scale, makes it a widely used option for impact and adaptation studies. A large variety of SDMs exists, and some can be more suitable than others for each specific purpose. For this reason, it is important to develop tools to facilitate the generation of downscaled scenarios following different approaches. There are some available packages aimed at this purpose, although they are oriented towards advanced users with programming knowledge. Here we present a python software, ‘pyClim-SDM’, freely available at (https://github.com/ahernanzl/pyClim-SDM/), which allows users to generate their own downscaled scenarios with a very simple and user-friendly graphical interface. This software includes a collection of state-of-the-art methods belonging to different families. For Model Output Statistics different Quantile Mapping methods are included (empirical/parametric and with different approaches to preserve trends). For Perfect Prognosis, different Analog/Weather Types methods have been included, as well as several Transfer Function methods (Multiple Linear Regression, Generalized Linear Models and Machine Learning methods). And also some Weather Generators are available. These methods have been evaluated in the test example shown with satisfactory results and aligning with the existing literature. Additionally, the pyClim-SDM includes utilities for the GCMs and predictors evaluation and selection, and also for visualization of results (evaluation metrics, comparison among methods, projected changes, etc.). This software can be run both in serial processing and in parallel in a High Performance Computer cluster with a minimum set up.
The Intricacies of Identifying Equatorial Waves
Authors: Knippertz Peter , Gehne Maria , Kiladis George N. , Kikuchi Kazuyoshi , Rasheeda Satheesh Athul , Roundy Paul E. , Yang Gui-Ying , Žagar Nedjeljka , Dias Juliana , Fink Andreas H. , Methven John , Schlueter Andreas , Sielmann Frank , Wheeler Matthew C.
Published: June 2022

Equatorial waves (EWs) are synoptic- to planetary-scale propagating disturbances at low latitudes with periods from a few days to several weeks. Here this term includes Kelvin waves, equatorial Rossby waves, mixed-Rossby gravity waves and inertio-gravity waves, which are well described by linear wave theory, but also other tropical disturbances such as easterly waves and the intraseasonal Madden-Julian Oscillation with more complex dynamics. EWs can couple with deep convection, leading to a substantial modulation of clouds and rainfall. EWs are amongst the dynamic features of the troposphere with the longest intrinsic predictability and models are beginning to forecast them with an exploitable level of skill. Most of the methods developed to identify and objectively isolate EWs in observations and model fields rely on (or at least refer to) the adiabatic, frictionless linearized primitive equations on the sphere or the shallow water system on the equatorial β-plane. Common ingredients to these methods are zonal wavenumber-frequency filtering (Fourier or wavelet) and/or projections onto predefined empirical or theoretical dynamical patterns. This paper gives an overview of six different methods to isolate EWs and their structures, discusses the underlying assumptions, evaluates the applicability to different problems and provides a systematic comparison based on a case study (20 February-20 May 2009) and a climatological analysis (2001-2018). In addition, the influence of different input fields (e.g. winds, geopotential, outgoing longwave radiation, rainfall) is investigated. Based on the results, we generally recommend employing a combination of wavenumber-frequency filtering and spatial-projection methods (and of different input fields) to check for robustness of the identified signal. In cases of disagreement, one needs to carefully investigate which assumptions made for the individual methods are most probably not fulfilled. This will help choose an approach optimally suited to a given problem at hand and avoid misinterpretation of the results. 
Tropospheric weather influenced by solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system
Authors: Prikryl Paul , Rušin Vojto
Published: June 2022

Extreme weather events caused by intensification of tropical and extratropical cyclones can have destructive impacts on infrastructure, society, and environment. Forecasting extreme weather continues to present challenges. In this study, we consider possible external factors that can lead to severe weather. It has been shown that significant weather events, including explosive extratropical cyclones [1,2], rapid intensification of tropical cyclones [3], and heavy rainfall causing floods and flash floods [4,5] tend to follow arrivals of solar wind high-speed streams from coronal holes. To further support these results, we use the NOAA Storm Prediction Center database of tornadoes in the superposed epoch analysis to study the occurrence of tornado outbreaks relative to arrival time of solar wind disturbances caused by solar activity. This includes solar flares that can launch coronal mass ejections [6], coronal holes that are sources of high-speed streams, and high-density plasma adjacent to the heliospheric current sheet where the interplanetary magnetic field reverses its polarity [7]. Solar wind coupling to the magnetosphere-ionosphere-atmosphere system generates globally propagating atmospheric gravity waves [8,9] that can reach the troposphere with attenuated amplitudes but are subject to amplification upon over-reflection in the troposphere. These atmospheric gravity waves can trigger/release moist instabilities leading to convection and latent heat release, which is the energy driving the storms [10]. 

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[2] Prikryl P., et al., J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 171, 94–10, 2018. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2017.07.023
[3] Prikryl P., et al., J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 183, 36-60, 2019. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2018.12.009
[4] Prikryl P., et al., Ann. Geophys. 39 (4), 769–93, 2021. doi:10.5194/angeo-39-769-2021
[5] Prikryl P., et al., Atmosphere 12 (9), 2021. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12091186.
[6] Gopalswamy N., Geosci. Lett. 3(8), 2016. doi: 10.1186/s40562-016-0039-2
[7] Tsurutani B.T., et al., J. Geophys. Res. 121. 10130–10156, 2016. doi:10.1002/2016JA022499
[8] Mayr H.G., et al., Space Sci. Rev. 54, 297–375, 1990. doi:10.1007/BF00177800
[9] Mayr H.G., et al., J. Atmos. Sol.-Terr. Phys. 104, 7–17, 2013. doi:10.1016/j.jastp.2013.08.001
[10] Prikryl P., et al., Ann. Geophys. 27, 31–57, 2009. doi:10.5194/angeo-27-31-2009
Covid-19 Diagnosis, Therapeutic Approaches and Post Disease Complications: A Literature Review
Authors: Ranjith S. , Somesh P.
Published: June 2022

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has made a serious health risk globally with millions of people at risk. Till currently there are not any clinically approved antiviral medication and vaccines, clinical trials are going on in patients with COVID-19. We have discussed recent literature data on COVID-19 treatment, Post COVID complications and current progress and upcoming perceptions in COVID-19 treatment.