bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Risk of Cardiovascular and All-Cause Mortality in Individuals With Diabetes Mellitus, Impaired Fasting Glucose, and Impaired Glucose Tolerance
Authors: Barr Elizabeth L.M. , Zimmet Paul Z. , Welborn Timothy A. , Jolley Damien , Magliano Dianna J. , Dunstan David W. , Cameron Adrian J. , Dwyer Terry , Taylor Hugh R. , Tonkin Andrew M. , Wong Tien Y. , McNeil John , Shaw Jonathan E.
Published: June 2007

Background—

Diabetes mellitus increases the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality. The relationship between milder elevations of blood glucose and mortality is less clear. This study investigated whether impaired fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance, as well as diabetes mellitus, increase the risk of all-cause and CVD mortality.

Methods and Results—

In 1999 to 2000, glucose tolerance status was determined in 10 428 participants of the Australian Diabetes, Obesity, and Lifestyle Study (AusDiab). After a median follow-up of 5.2 years, 298 deaths occurred (88 CVD deaths). Compared with those with normal glucose tolerance, the adjusted all-cause mortality hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for known diabetes mellitus and newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus were 2.3 (1.6 to 3.2) and 1.3 (0.9 to 2.0), respectively. The risk of death was also increased in those with impaired fasting glucose (HR 1.6, 95% CI 1.0 to 2.4) and impaired glucose tolerance (HR 1.5, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.0). Sixty-five percent of all those who died of CVD had known diabetes mellitus, newly diagnosed diabetes mellitus, impaired fasting glucose, or impaired glucose tolerance at baseline. Known diabetes mellitus (HR 2.6, 95% CI 1.4 to 4.7) and impaired fasting glucose (HR 2.5, 95% CI 1.2 to 5.1) were independent predictors for CVD mortality after adjustment for age, sex, and other traditional CVD risk factors, but impaired glucose tolerance was not (HR 1.2, 95% CI 0.7 to 2.2).

Conclusions—

This study emphasizes the strong association between abnormal glucose metabolism and mortality, and it suggests that this condition contributes to a large number of CVD deaths in the general population. CVD prevention may be warranted in people with all categories of abnormal glucose metabolism.
Nonsense Mutations in hERG Cause a Decrease in Mutant mRNA Transcripts by Nonsense-Mediated mRNA Decay in Human Long-QT Syndrome
Authors: Gong Qiuming , Zhang Li , Vincent G. Michael , Horne Benjamin D. , Zhou Zhengfeng
Published: June 2007

Background—

Long-QT syndrome type 2 (LQT2) is caused by mutations in the human ether-a-go-go-related gene (
hERG
). More than 30% of the LQT2 mutations result in premature termination codons. Degradation of premature termination codon–containing mRNA transcripts by nonsense-mediated mRNA decay is increasingly recognized as a mechanism for reducing mRNA levels in a variety of human diseases. However, the role of nonsense-mediated mRNA decay in LQT2 mutations has not been explored.

Methods and Results—

We examined the expression of hERG mRNA in lymphocytes from patients carrying the R1014X mutation using a technique of allele-specific transcript quantification. The R1014X mutation led to a reduced level of mutant mRNA compared with that of the wild-type allele. The decrease in mutant mRNA also was observed in the LQT2 nonsense mutations W1001X and R1014X using hERG minigenes expressed in HEK293 cells or neonatal rat ventricular myocytes. Treatment with the protein synthesis inhibitor cycloheximide or RNA interference–mediated knockdown of the Upf1 protein resulted in the restoration of mutant mRNA to levels comparable to that of the wild-type minigene, suggesting that hERG nonsense mutations are subject to nonsense-mediated mRNA decay.

Conclusions—

These results indicate that LQT2 nonsense mutations cause a decrease in mutant mRNA levels by nonsense-mediated mRNA decay rather than production of truncated proteins. Our findings suggest that the degradation of hERG mutant mRNA by nonsense-mediated mRNA decay is an important mechanism in LQT2 patients with nonsense or frameshift mutations.
Sympathoexcitation by Oxidative Stress in the Brain Mediates Arterial Pressure Elevation in Salt-Sensitive Hypertension
Authors: Fujita Megumi , Ando Katsuyuki , Nagae Ai , Fujita Toshiro
Published: June 2007

Central sympathoexcitation is involved in the pathogenesis of salt-sensitive hypertension. We have suggested that oxidative stress in the brain modulates the sympathetic regulation of arterial pressure. Thus, we investigated whether oxidative stress could mediate central sympathoexcitation in salt-sensitive hypertension. Five- to 6-week-old male Dahl salt-sensitive rats and salt-resistant rats were fed with a normal (0.3%) or high- (8%) salt diet for 4 weeks. In urethane-anesthetized and artificially ventilated rats, arterial pressure, renal sympathetic nerve activity, and heart rate decreased in a dose-dependent fashion, when 20 or 40 μmol of tempol, a membrane-permeable superoxide dismutase mimetic, was infused into the lateral cerebral ventricle. The same degree of reduction was noted in salt-sensitive and salt-resistant rats without salt loading. Salt loading significantly increased central tempol-induced reductions in arterial pressure (−29.1±4.8% versus −10.6±3.3% at 40 μmol;
P
<0.01), sympathetic nerve activity (−18.7±2.0% versus −7.1±1.8%;
P
<0.01), and heart rate (−10.7±2.8% versus −2.0±0.7%;
P
<0.05) in salt-sensitive rats but not in salt-resistant rats. Intracerebroventricular diphenyleneiodonium, a reduced nicotinamide-adenine dinucleotide phosphate oxidase inhibitor, also elicited significantly greater reduction in each parameter in salt-loaded salt-sensitive rats. Moreover, salt loading increased reduced nicotinamide-adenine dinucleotide phosphate–dependent superoxide production in the hypothalamus in salt-sensitive rats but not in salt-resistant rats. In addition, reduced nicotinamide-adenine dinucleotide phosphate oxidase subunits p22
phox
, p47
phox
, and gp91
phox
mRNA expression significantly increased in the hypothalamus of salt-loaded salt-sensitive rats. In conclusion, in salt-sensitive hypertension, increased oxidative stress in the brain, possibly via activation of reduced nicotinamide-adenine dinucleotide phosphate oxidase, may elevate arterial pressure through central sympathoexcitation.
Homocysteine and Nitric Oxide Are Related to Blood Pressure and Vascular Function in Small-for-Gestational-Age Children
Authors: Franco Maria C.P. , Higa Elisa M.S. , D’Almeida Vânia , de Sousa Fernanda G. , Sawaya Ana L. , Fortes Zuleica B. , Sesso Ricardo
Published: June 2007

Leptin, homocysteine (Hcy), and C-reactive protein are risk factors potentially useful in predicting future cardiac events. These plasma biomarkers may participate in the regulation of cardiovascular function through an NO-dependent mechanism. Our purpose was to investigate whether alterations in C-reactive protein, Hcy, leptin, and NO are present in small-for-gestational-age children and to determine whether the levels of these plasma biomarkers are associated with birth weight, vascular function, and blood pressure. Concentrations of leptin, Hcy, C-reactive protein, and NO were measured in 69 children (36 boys and 33 girls; ages 8 to 13 years). Leptin (means difference: 1.4 ng/mL; 95% CI: 0.4 to 2.4) and Hcy (means difference: 0.9 μmol/L; 95% CI: 0.3 to 1.5) levels were significantly elevated in children born small for gestational age compared with those with appropriate birth weight. Nevertheless, NO (means difference: 342.9 μmol; 95% CI: 124.2 to 561.6) concentration was significantly reduced in small birth weight children, and the levels of C-reactive protein remained unchanged. There was a significant association between the circulating levels of both NO and Hcy with vascular function, as well as with blood pressure levels, in our population. Because both Hcy and NO are associated with a risk of cardiovascular disease, it is possible that part of the association of low birth weight with elevated risk for vascular and metabolic disease in later life is mediated by perturbation in pathways for these biomarkers.
A Possible Link between the Weddell Polynya and the Southern Annular Mode*
Authors: Gordon Arnold L. , Visbeck Martin , Comiso Josefino C.
Published: June 2007

Shortly after the advent of the first imaging passive microwave sensor on board a research satellite an anomalous climate feature was observed within the Weddell Sea. During the years 1974–1976, a 250 × 103 km2 area within the seasonal sea ice cover was virtually free of winter sea ice. This feature, the Weddell Polynya, was created as sea ice formation was inhibited by ocean convection that injected relatively warm deep water into the surface layer. Though smaller, less persistent polynyas associated with topographically induced upwelling at Maud Rise frequently form in the area, there has not been a reoccurrence of the Weddell Polynya since 1976. Archived observations of the surface layer salinity within the Weddell gyre suggest that the Weddell Polynya may have been induced by a prolonged period of negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM). During negative SAM the Weddell Sea experiences colder and drier atmospheric conditions, making for a saltier surface layer with reduced pycnocline stability. This condition enables Maud Rise upwelling to trigger sustained deep-reaching convection associated with the polynya. Since the late 1970s SAM has been close to neutral or in a positive state, resulting in warmer, wetter conditions over the Weddell Sea, forestalling repeat of the Weddell Polynya. A contributing factor to the Weddell Polynya initiation may have been a La Niña condition, which is associated with increased winter sea ice formation in the polynya area. If the surface layer is made sufficiently salty due to a prolonged negative SAM period, perhaps aided by La Niña, then Maud Rise upwelling meets with positive feedback, triggering convection, and a winter persistent Weddell Polynya.
Impact Mechanisms of Shallow Cumulus Convection on Tropical Climate Dynamics*
Authors: Neggers Roel A. J. , Neelin J. David , Stevens Bjorn
Published: June 2007

Subtropical shallow cumulus convection is shown to play an important role in tropical climate dynamics, in which convective mixing between the atmospheric boundary layer and the free troposphere initiates a chain of large-scale feedbacks. It is found that the presence of shallow convection in the subtropics helps set the width and intensity of oceanic ITCZs, a mechanism here termed the shallow cumulus humidity throttle because of the control exerted on the moisture supply to the deep convection zones. These conclusions are reached after investigations based on a tropical climate model of intermediate complexity, with sufficient vertical degrees of freedom to capture (i) the effects of shallow convection on the boundary layer moisture budget and (ii) the dependency of deep convection on the free-tropospheric humidity. An explicit shallow cumulus mixing time scale in this simple parameterization is varied to assess sensitivity, with moist static energy budget analysis aiding to identify how the local effect of shallow convection is balanced globally. A reduction in the mixing efficiency of shallow convection leads to a more humid atmospheric mixed layer, and less surface evaporation, with a drier free troposphere outside of the convecting zones. Advection of drier free-tropospheric air from the subtropics by transients such as dry intrusions, as well as by mean inflow, causes a substantial narrowing of the convection zones by inhibition of deep convection at their margins. In the tropical mean, the reduction of convection by this narrowing more than compensates for the reduction in surface evaporation. Balance is established via a substantial decrease in tropospheric temperatures throughout the Tropics, associated with the reduction in convective heating. The temperature response—and associated radiative contribution to the net flux into the column—have broad spatial scales, while the reduction of surface evaporation is concentrated outside of the convecting zones. This results in differential net flux across the convecting zone, in a sense that acts to destabilize those areas that do convect. This results in stronger large-scale convergence and more intense convection within a narrower area. Finally, mixed layer ocean experiments show that in a coupled ocean–atmosphere system this indirect feedback mechanism can lead to SST differences up to +2 K between cases with different shallow cumulus mixing time, tending to counteract the direct radiative impact of low subtropical clouds on SST.
Warming of the North Pacific Ocean: Local Air–Sea Coupling and Remote Climatic Impacts
Authors: Wu Lixin , Li Chun
Published: June 2007

In this paper, global climatic response to the North Pacific oceanic warming is investigated in a series of coupled ocean–atmosphere modeling experiments. In the model, an idealized heating is imposed over the North Pacific Ocean, while the ocean and atmosphere remain fully coupled both locally and elsewhere. The model explicitly demonstrates that the North Pacific oceanic warming can force a significant change of the atmospheric circulation with a strong seasonal dependence. The seasonal marching of the atmospheric response over the North Pacific is characterized by a quasi-baratropic warm ridge in early winter, a transition to a quasi-baratropic warm trough in late winter, and then to a baroclinic response in summer with a trough and ridge, respectively, in the lower and upper troposphere. The North Pacific warming also forces a significant remote response over the tropical Pacific. In winter, the tropical Pacific response is characterized by a nearly uniform warming coupled with anomalous southerly cross-equatorial winds, while in summer it is dominated by an enhanced zonal SST gradient and anomalous equatorial easterlies. The tropical warming tends to be associated with a reduction of the upper-ocean meridional overturning circulation and equatorial ocean dynamics associated with a reduction of the Hadley circulation and the surface coupled wind–evaporation–SST feedback. The resulting tropical warming can further intensify the seasonal marching of the North Pacific atmospheric response. The global impacts of the North Pacific warming are also discussed.
ENSO Impact on the Space–Time Evolution of the Regional Asian Summer Monsoons
Authors: Lim Young-Kwon , Kim Kwang-Yul
Published: June 2007

This study investigates how ENSO affects the space–time evolution of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) precipitation and synoptic variables on a 5-day resolution over the entire ASM area. Cyclostationary EOF and regression methods were used to investigate the detailed evolution features associated with ENSO during the prominent life cycle of the ASM (21 May–17 September). This ENSO mode is identified as the third largest component (next to the seasonal cycle and the intraseasonal oscillations with a 40–50-day period) of the ASM rainfall variation.

The ENSO mode reveals that the individual regional monsoons over the ASM domain respond to ENSO in a complex manner. 1) Under the El Niño condition, the early monsoon stage over India, the Bay of Bengal, and the Indochina peninsula is characterized by rainfall deficit, along with a delayed monsoon onset by one or two pentads. This is the result of weakened diabatic heating over the Asian continent and meridional pressure gradient over the Indian Ocean, causing a weak low-tropospheric westerly monsoonal flow and the ensuing moisture transport decrease toward the regional monsoon areas. Onsets of the subsequent regional monsoons are delayed successively by this poorly developed ASM system in the early stage. 2) The Walker circulation anomaly persistently induces an enhanced subsidence over the Maritime Continent, resulting in a drought condition over this region for the entire ASM period. 3) The Hadley circulation anomaly linked to the Walker circulation anomaly over the Tropics drives a rising motion over the subtropical western Pacific, resulting in a wetter south China monsoon. The negative sea level pressure anomaly over the subtropical western Pacific associated with this anomalous Hadley circulation provides an unfavorable condition for the moisture transport toward East Asia, causing drier monsoons over north China, Japan, and Korea regions. 4) This negative sea level pressure anomaly intrudes into India, the Bay of Bengal, and the Indochina peninsula during late July and early August, developing a brief wet period over these regions. In contrast, the physical changes including the onset variation and the monsoon strength addressed above are reversed during La Niña events.

In reality, the observed ASM rainfall anomaly does not necessarily follow the ENSO-related patterns addressed above because of other impacts contributing to the rainfall variations. Although the impact of ENSO is moderately important, a comparison with other impacts demonstrates that the rainfall variations are controlled more by regional-scale intraseasonal oscillations.
Variability and Singularity of Seoul, South Korea, Rainy Season (1778–2004)
Authors: Wang Bin , Jhun Jong-Ghap , Moon Byung-Kwon
Published: June 2007

The 227-yr daily precipitation record gathered for Seoul, South Korea, represents one of the longest instrumental measurements, which provides an exceptional opportunity for detecting climate singularity (a property of phase locking to annual cycle) of extreme weather events and multidecadal–centennial variability of the rainy season structure. From late June to early September, the occurrence of heavy rain events shows a climatological quasi-biweekly oscillation. The rainy season characteristics, including the dates of onset, retreat, summit, and the duration, all show significant centennial variations. The rainy season summit shows a tendency toward delayed occurrence, which changed from the 37th pentad (P37; 30 June–4 July) during the 1778–1807 period to P44 (4–8 August) during the 1975–2004 period. The amplitude of the interannual (2–6 yr) variation of summer precipitation shows a prominent fluctuation with a 50-yr rhythm. A notable climatological break (around 9–13 August) divides the rainy season into a changma (Korean for continuous rain period) and a post-changma period. The major modes of subseasonal variability of the rainy season are characterized by an advanced changma and an enhanced post-changma, respectively. The former is dominated by biennial variation, whereas the latter has a major 5-yr spectral peak, suggesting that the processes leading to their variability are different. The occurrence of severe drought events exhibits a 4-yr spectral peak along with large power on a centennial time scale, while the severe flood events have a spectral peak at 3 and 19 yr, respectively. The remarkable climate variability in Seoul rainfall suggests that trends detected by using a 50-yr-or-shorter precipitation record likely reflect natural variability.
Tropical Cyclone Changes in the Western North Pacific in a Global Warming Scenario
Authors: Stowasser Markus , Wang Yuqing , Hamilton Kevin
Published: June 2007

The influence of global warming on the climatology of tropical cyclones in the western North Pacific basin is examined using the high-resolution International Pacific Research Center (IPRC) regional climate model forced by ocean temperatures and horizontal boundary fields taken from the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 2 (CCSM2) coupled global climate model. The regional model is first tested in 10 yr of simulation with boundary forcing taken from observations and is shown to produce a reasonably good representation of the observed statistics of tropical cyclone numbers and locations. The model was then run for 10 yr with forcing from a present-day control run of the CCSM2 and then for 10 yr with forcing fields taken from the end of a long run with 6 times the present-day atmospheric CO2 concentration. The global-mean surface air temperature warming in the perturbed run is 4.5 K, while the surface warming in the tropical western North Pacific is about 3 K. The results of these experiments reveal no statistically significant change in basinwide tropical cyclone numbers in the peak season from July to October in response to the CO2 increase. However, a pronounced and statistically significant increase in tropical cyclone occurrence in the South China Sea is found. While the basinwide total number of storms remains nearly unchanged in the warm climate, there is a statistically significant increase in the average strength of the cyclones and in the number of the storms in the strongest wind categories.
Australian Rainfall and Surface Temperature Variations Associated with the Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode
Authors: Hendon Harry H. , Thompson David W. J. , Wheeler Matthew C.
Published: June 2007

Daily variations in Australian rainfall and surface temperature associated with the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM) are documented using observations for the period 1979–2005. The high index polarity of the SAM is characterized by a poleward contraction of the midlatitude westerlies. During winter, the high index polarity of the SAM is associated with decreased daily rainfall over southeast and southwest Australia, but during summer it is associated with increased daily rainfall on the southern east coast of Australia and decreased rainfall in western Tasmania. Variations in the SAM explain up to ∼15% of the weekly rainfall variance in these regions, which is comparable to the variance accounted for by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, especially during winter. The most widespread temperature anomalies associated with the SAM occur during the spring and summer seasons, when the high index polarity of the SAM is associated with anomalously low maximum temperature over most of central/eastern subtropical Australia. The regions of decreased maximum temperature are also associated with increased rainfall. Implications for recent trends in Australian rainfall and temperature are discussed.
West African Storm Tracks and Their Relationship to Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
Authors: Hopsch Susanna B. , Thorncroft Chris D. , Hodges Kevin , Aiyyer Anantha
Published: June 2007

The automatic tracking technique used by Thorncroft and Hodges has been used to identify coherent vorticity structures at 850 hPa over West Africa and the tropical Atlantic in the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis. The presence of two dominant source regions, north and south of 15°N over West Africa, for storm tracks over the Atlantic was confirmed. Results show that the southern storm track provides most of the storms that reach the main development region where most tropical cyclones develop. There exists marked seasonal variability in location and intensity of the storms leaving the West African coast, which may influence the likelihood of downstream intensification and longevity.

There exists considerable year-to-year variability in the number of West African storm tracks, both in numbers over the land and continuing out over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. While the low-frequency variability is well correlated with Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, West African rainfall, and SSTs, the interannual variability is found to be uncorrelated with these. In contrast, variance of the 2–6-day-filtered meridional wind, which provides a synoptic-scale measure of African easterly wave activity, shows a significant, positive correlation with tropical cyclone activity at interannual time scales.
Diagnosing Cloud Feedbacks in General Circulation Models
Authors: Zhu Ping , Hack James J. , Kiehl Jeffrey T.
Published: June 2007

In this study, it is shown that the NCAR and GFDL GCMs exhibit a marked difference in climate sensitivity of clouds and radiative fluxes in response to doubled CO2 and ±2-K SST perturbations. The GFDL model predicted a substantial decrease in cloud amount and an increase in cloud condensate in the warmer climate, but produced a much weaker change in net cloud radiative forcing (CRF) than the NCAR model. Using a multiple linear regression (MLR) method, the full-sky radiative flux change at the top of the atmosphere was successfully decomposed into individual components associated with the clear sky and different types of clouds. The authors specifically examined the cloud feedbacks due to the cloud amount and cloud condensate changes involving low, mid-, and high clouds between 60°S and 60°N. It was found that the NCAR and GFDL models predicted the same sign of individual longwave and shortwave feedbacks resulting from the change in cloud amount and cloud condensate for all three types of clouds (low, mid, and high) despite the different cloud and radiation schemes used in the models. However, since the individual longwave and shortwave feedbacks resulting from the change in cloud amount and cloud condensate generally have the opposite signs, the net cloud feedback is a subtle residual of all. Strong cancellations between individual cloud feedbacks may result in a weak net cloud feedback. This result is consistent with the findings of the previous studies, which used different approaches to diagnose cloud feedbacks. This study indicates that the proposed MLR approach provides an easy way to efficiently expose the similarity and discrepancy of individual cloud feedback processes between GCMs, which are hidden in the total cloud feedback measured by CRF. Most importantly, this method has the potential to be applied to satellite measurements. Thus, it may serve as a reliable and efficient method to investigate cloud feedback mechanisms on short-term scales by comparing simulations with available observations, which may provide a useful way to identify the cause for the wide spread of cloud feedbacks in GCMs.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation Simulation at 6000 Years before Present with the MRI-CGCM2.3: Effect of Flux Adjustment
Authors: Kitoh Akio , Motoi Tatsuo , Murakami Shigenori
Published: June 2007

Modulation of El Niño–Southern Oscillation at the mid-Holocene [6000 yr before present (6 ka)] is investigated with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. The model is integrated for 300 yr with 6-ka and present (0 ka) insolation both with and without flux adjustment, and the effect of flux adjustment on the simulation of El Niño is investigated. The response in the equatorial Pacific Ocean in 6 ka is in favor of weaker El Niño variability resulting from lowered sea surface temperature (SST) and a more diffuse thermocline. Atmospheric sensitivity in 6 ka is larger than that in 0 ka because of increased trade winds, while oceanic sensitivity in 6 ka is weaker than that in 0 ka, resulting from destabilization of the upper ocean, both in the flux- and non-flux-adjusted experiments. However, the use of flux adjustment causes a difference in the total response. El Niño variability in 6 ka does not change much from that in 0 ka with the flux-adjusted case, while the 6-ka El Niño variability is weaker without flux adjustment. Because the observed proxy data suggest weaker El Niño variability in the mid-Holocene, the non-flux-adjusted version gives a more reasonable response despite a larger bias in its basic states, implying that nondistortion of sensitivity to forcing is more important.
Decadal Variability of the Kuroshio Extension: Observations and an Eddy-Resolving Model Hindcast*
Authors: Taguchi Bunmei , Xie Shang-Ping , Schneider Niklas , Nonaka Masami , Sasaki Hideharu , Sasai Yoshikazu
Published: June 2007

Low-frequency variability of the Kuroshio Extension (KE) is studied using observations and a multidecadal (1950–2003) hindcast by a high-resolution (0.1°), eddy-resolving, global ocean general circulation model for the Earth Simulator (OFES). In both the OFES hindcast and satellite altimeter observations, low-frequency sea surface height (SSH) variability in the North Pacific is high near the KE front. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis indicates that much of the SSH variability in the western North Pacific east of Japan is explained by two modes with meridional structures tightly trapped along the KE front. The first mode represents a southward shift and to a lesser degree, an acceleration of the KE jet associated with the 1976/77 shift in basin-scale winds. The second mode reflects quasi-decadal variations in the intensity of the KE jet. Both the spatial structure and time series of these modes derived from the hindcast are in close agreement with observations.

A linear Rossby wave model forced by observed wind successfully reproduces the time series of the leading OFES modes but fails to explain why their meridional structure is concentrated on the KE front and inconsistent with the broadscale wind forcing. Further analysis suggests that KE variability may be decomposed into broad- and frontal-scale components in the meridional direction—the former following the linear Rossby wave solution and the latter closely resembling ocean intrinsic modes derived from an OFES run forced by climatological winds. The following scenario is suggested for low-frequency KE variability: basin-scale wind variability excites broadscale Rossby waves, which propagate westward, triggering intrinsic modes of the KE jet and reorganizing SSH variability in space.
Interdecadal Sea Surface Temperature Variability in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. Part I: The Role of Off-Equatorial Wind Stresses and Oceanic Rossby Waves
Authors: McGregor Shayne , Holbrook Neil J. , Power Scott B.
Published: June 2007

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre CGCM and a linear first baroclinic-mode ocean shallow-water model (SWM) are used to investigate ocean dynamic forcing mechanisms of the equatorial Pacific Ocean interdecadal sea surface temperature (SST) variability. An EOF analysis of the 13-yr low-pass Butterworth-filtered SST anomalies from a century-time-scale CGCM simulation reveals an SST anomaly spatial pattern and time variability consistent with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation. Results from an SWM simulation forced with wind stresses from the CGCM simulation are shown to compare well with the CGCM, and as such the SWM is then used to investigate the roles of “uncoupled” equatorial wind stress forcing, off-equatorial wind stress forcing (OffEqWF), and Rossby wave reflection at the western Pacific Ocean boundary, on the decadal equatorial thermocline depth anomalies.

Equatorial Pacific wind stresses are shown to explain a large proportion of the overall variance in the equatorial thermocline depth anomalies. However, OffEqWF beyond 12.5° latitude produces an interdecadal signature in the Niño-4 (Niño-3) region that explains approximately 10% (1.5%) of the filtered control simulation variance. Rossby wave reflection at the western Pacific boundary is shown to underpin the OffEqWF contribution to these equatorial anomalies. The implications of this result for the predictability of the decadal variations of thermocline depth are investigated with results showing that OffEqWF generates an equatorial response in the Niño-3 region up to 3 yr after the wind stress forcing is switched off. Further, a statistically significant correlation is found between thermocline depth anomalies in the off-equatorial zone and the Niño-3 region, with the Niño-3 region lagging by approximately 2 yr. The authors conclude that there is potential predictability of the OffEqWF equatorial thermocline depth anomalies with lead times of up to 3 yr when taking into account the amplitudes and locations of off-equatorial region Rossby waves.
Statistical Prediction of Seasonal Mean Southern Hemisphere 500-hPa Geopotential Heights
Authors: Zheng Xiaogu , Frederiksen Carsten S.
Published: June 2007

A recently developed variance decomposition approach is applied to predict seasonal mean 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies in the Southern Hemisphere. In terms of predictability of both the winter and summer height fields, the Southern Oscillation and the Southern Annular Mode are identified as the first and second most important factors affecting the variability.

Based on this study, a statistical prediction scheme has been developed. The linear trend in the leading empirical orthogonal function of the height field, the November Southern Annular Mode index, the austral spring Niño-3 index, and the November Coral Sea index are identified as the main predictors for the summer height field, while the March–May Southern Annular Mode index, the May Niño-4 index, and the austral autumn central Indian Ocean index are the main predictors for the winter height field. The predictive skill in forecasts of National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis 500-hPa geopotential height anomaly fields, in terms of a spatiotemporal anomaly correlation, is considerably higher than a single prediction achieved by a coupled general circulation seasonal forecast model.
Control of Dry Season Evapotranspiration over the Amazonian Forest as Inferred from Observations at a Southern Amazon Forest Site
Authors: Juárez Robinson I. Negrón , Hodnett Martin G. , Fu Rong , Goulden Michael L. , von Randow Celso
Published: June 2007

The extent to which soil water storage can support an average dry season evapotranspiration (ET) is investigated using observations from the Rebio Jarú site for the period of 2000 to 2002. During the dry season, when total rainfall is less than 100 mm, the soil moisture storage available to root uptake in the top 3-m layer is sufficient to maintain the ET rate, which is equal to or higher than that in the wet season. With a normal or less-than-normal dry season rainfall, more than 75% of the ET is supplied by soil water below 1 m, whereas during a rainier dry season, about 50% of ET is provided by soil water from below 1 m. Soil moisture below 1-m depth is recharged by rainfall during the previous wet season: dry season rainfall rarely infiltrates to this depth. These results suggest that, even near the southern edge of the Amazon forest, seasonal and moderate interannual rainfall deficits can be mitigated by an increase in root uptake from deeper soil.

How dry season ET varies geographically within the Amazon and what might control its geographic distribution are examined by comparing in situ observations from 10 sites from different areas of Amazonia reported during the last two decades. Results show that the average dry season ET varies less than 1 mm day−1 or 30% from the driest to nearly the wettest parts of Amazonia and is largely correlated with the change of surface net radiation of 25% and 30%. Thus the geographic variation of the average dry season ET appears to be mainly determined by the surface radiation.
Precipitation Distribution Associated with Landfalling Tropical Cyclones over the Eastern United States
Authors: Atallah Eyad , Bosart Lance F. , Aiyyer Anantha R.
Published: June 2007

Tropical cyclones (TCs) making landfall over the United States are examined by separating those associated with precipitation predominantly left of their tracks from those with the same to the right of their tracks. Composites of atmospheric variables for these two TC categories are performed and analyzed using potential vorticity (PV) and quasigeostrophic (QG) frameworks. Dynamical signatures are retrieved from these composites to help understand the evolution of precipitation in these storms. Results indicate that a left of track precipitation distribution (e.g., Floyd 1999) is characteristic of TCs undergoing extratropical transition (ET). In these cases, a positively tilted midlatitude trough approaches the TC from the northwest, shifting precipitation to the north-northwest of the TC. Potential vorticity redistribution through diabatic heating leads to enhanced ridging over and downstream of the TC, resulting in an increase in the cyclonic advection of vorticity by the thermal wind over the transitioning TC. A right of track precipitation distribution is characteristic of TCs interacting with a downstream ridge (e.g., David 1979). When the downstream ridge amplifies in response to TC-induced diabatic heating ahead of a weak midlatitude trough, the PV gradient between the TC and the downstream ridge is accentuated, producing a region of enhanced positive PV advection (and cyclonic vorticity advection by the thermal wind) over the TC. The diabatic enhancement of the downstream ridge is instrumental in the redistribution of precipitation about the transitioning TCs in both cases and poses a significant forecast challenge.
Identifying Cloud-Uncontaminated AIRS Spectra from Cloudy FOV Based on Cloud-Top Pressure and Weighting Functions
Authors: Carrier M. , Zou X. , Lapenta William M.
Published: June 2007

An effort is made to increase the number of Advanced Infrared Sounder (AIRS) cloud-uncontaminated infrared data for regional mesoscale data assimilation and short-term quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) applications. The cloud-top pressure from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) is utilized in combination with weighting functions (WFs) to develop a channel-based cloudy-data-removal algorithm. This algorithm identifies “clear channels” for which the brightness temperature (BT) values are not cloud contaminated. A channel-dependent cutoff pressure (COP) level is first determined based on the structure of the WF of each channel. It is usually below the maximum WF level. If the cloud top (as identified by a MODIS cloud mask) is above (below) the COP level of a channel, this channel is then deemed cloudy (clear) and removed (retained). Using this algorithm, a sizable increase of cloud-uncontaminated AIRS data can be obtained. There are more usable domain points for those channels with higher COP levels. A case study is conducted. It is shown that instead of having less than 20% AIRS clear-sky observations, the algorithm finds 80% (58%) of the AIRS pixels on which there are channels whose COP levels are at or above 300 hPa (500 hPa) and the BT data in these channels at these pixels are cloud uncontaminated. Such a significant increase of the usable AIRS cloud-uncontaminated data points is especially useful for regional mesoscale data assimilation and short-term QPF applications.
Lightning Frequency and Microphysical Properties of Precipitating Clouds over the Western North Pacific during Winter as Derived from TRMM Multisensor Observations
Authors: Kodama Yasu-Masa , Okabe Haruna , Tomisaka Yukie , Kotono Katsuya , Kondo Yoshimi , Kasuya Hideyuki
Published: June 2007

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission observations from multiple sensors including precipitation radar, microwave and infrared radiometers, and a lightning sensor were used to describe precipitation, lightning frequency, and microphysical properties of precipitating clouds over the midlatitude ocean. Precipitation over midlatitude oceans was intense during winter and was often accompanied by frequent lightning. Case studies over the western North Pacific from January and February 2000 showed that some lightning occurred in deep precipitating clouds that developed around cyclones and their attendant fronts. Lightning also occurred in convective clouds that developed in regions of large-scale subsidence behind extratropical cyclones where cold polar air masses were strongly heated and moistened from below by the ocean. The relationships between lightning frequency and the minimum polarization corrected temperature (PCT) at 37 and 85 GHz and the profile of the maximum radar reflectivity resembled relationships derived previously for cases in the Tropics. Smaller lapse rates in the maximum radar reflectivity above the melting level indicate vigorous convection that, although shallow and relatively rare, was as strong as convection over tropical oceans. Lightning was most frequent in systems for which the minimum PCT at 37 GHz was less than 260 K. Lightning and PCT at 85 GHz were not as well correlated as lightning and PCT at 37 GHz. Thus, lightning was frequent in convective clouds that contained many large hydrometeors in the mixed-phase layer, because PCT is more sensitive to large hydrometeors at 37 than at 85 GHz. The relationship between lightning occurrence and cloud-top heights derived from infrared observations was not straightforward. Microphysical conditions that support lightning over the midlatitude ocean in winter were similar to conditions in the Tropics and are consistent with Takahashi’s theory of riming electrification.
Extension of 3DVAR to 4DVAR: Implementation of 4DVAR at the Meteorological Service of Canada
Authors: Gauthier Pierre , Tanguay Monique , Laroche Stéphane , Pellerin Simon , Morneau Josée
Published: June 2007

On 15 March 2005, the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) proceeded to the implementation of a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVAR) system, which led to significant improvements in the quality of global forecasts. This paper describes the different elements of MSC’s 4DVAR assimilation system, discusses some issues encountered during the development, and reports on the overall results from the 4DVAR implementation tests. The 4DVAR system adopted an incremental approach with two outer iterations. The simplified model used in the minimization has a horizontal resolution of 170 km and its simplified physics includes vertical diffusion, surface drag, orographic blocking, stratiform condensation, and convection. One important element of the design is its modularity, which has permitted continued progress on the three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVAR) component (e.g., addition of new observation types) and the model (e.g., computational and numerical changes). This paper discusses some numerical problems that occur in the vicinity of the Poles where the semi-Lagrangian scheme becomes unstable when there is a simultaneous occurrence of converging meridians and strong wind gradients. These could be removed by filtering the winds in the zonal direction before they are used to estimate the upstream position in the semi-Lagrangian scheme. The results show improvements in all aspects of the forecasts over all regions. The impact is particularly significant in the Southern Hemisphere where 4DVAR is able to extract more information from satellite data. In the Northern Hemisphere, 4DVAR accepts more asynoptic data, in particular coming from profilers and aircrafts. The impact noted is also positive and the short-term forecasts are particularly improved over the west coast of North America. Finally, the dynamical consistency of the 4DVAR global analyses leads to a significant impact on regional forecasts. Experimentation has shown that regional forecasts initiated directly from a 4DVAR global analysis are improved with respect to the regional forecasts resulting from the regional 3DVAR analysis.
Mesoscale Convective Vortices Observed during BAMEX. Part I: Kinematic and Thermodynamic Structure
Authors: Davis Christopher A. , Trier Stanley B.
Published: June 2007

Five cases of mesoscale convective vortices (MCVs) are described from observations collected during the Bow Echo and MCV Experiment (BAMEX) over the central United States during the period from 20 May to 6 July 2003. In the present paper, the kinematic and thermodynamic structure of each vortex and its environment are emphasized. Data consist of BAMEX dropsondes, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration profiler network, and National Weather Service soundings. In addition, Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler observations documented the signatures of nascent MCVs within nocturnal convection systems as well as the spatial pattern of convection within MCVs during the following day. The vertical structure of each vortex was highly dependent on the vertical shear and the presence of upper-tropospheric cyclonic vorticity anomalies. In strong shear, a pronounced downshear tilt of the vortex was evident, but with the presence of an upper-tropospheric trough, the tilt was upshear in the upper troposphere. In only one case did the tangential velocity of the vortex greatly exceed the vertical shear across its depth, and thus the vortex could maintain itself against the shear. The vortices were generally deep structures, extending through 5–8 km in all cases and maximizing their tangential winds between 550 and 600 hPa. In one of the five cases, vertical penetration into the boundary layer was unambiguous. Lower-tropospheric virtual potential temperature anomalies were generally 1–2 K, greatest when not directly beneath the midtropospheric MCV center but rather on its upshear and downshear flanks. Upper-tropospheric warm anomalies were found above and downshear from the midtropospheric MCV center, with a cool anomaly upshear, the latter being stronger in cases with an upshear tropopause-based trough. A diagnostic balance calculation was performed and indicated that the temperature anomalies were approximately balanced on the scale of the vortex.
A Stereo Photogrammetric Technique Applied to Orographic Convection
Authors: Zehnder Joseph A. , Hu Jiuxiang , Razdan Anshuman
Published: June 2007

This paper describes a technique for photogrammetric analysis of stereo pairs of images that is applied to the study of orographic convection. The technique is designed for use with digital images and assumes detailed knowledge of the camera properties (focal length and imaging chip) and that the position and orientation are known as a first guess. An iterative scheme using known landmarks on the frame is used to determine the camera orientation. The scheme is accurate to 10–100 m at a distance of 15 km from the camera pair. The transition from shallow to deep convection over the Santa Catalina Mountains in southern Arizona on 26 July 2005 is presented. The three-dimensional structure of the visible portion of the cloud is determined and compared with the composite reflectivity from the National Weather Service Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler radar and the tropopause height from the 1200 UTC sounding in Tucson, Arizona, providing additional validation of the scheme. The shallow to deep transition is characterized by tracking individual turrets and determining the maximum height of the cloud top. The cloud tops were limited to beneath 6000 m MSL for the first 1.5 h followed by the development of deep convection. The motion of the turrets and location of the eventual deep convection were consistent with the idea that moistening by shallow convection conditions the atmosphere for further development.
Comparison of Ensemble-MOS Methods Using GFS Reforecasts
Authors: Wilks Daniel S. , Hamill Thomas M.
Published: June 2007

Three recently proposed and promising methods for postprocessing ensemble forecasts based on their historical error characteristics (i.e., ensemble-model output statistics methods) are compared using a multidecadal reforecast dataset. Logistic regressions and nonhomogeneous Gaussian regressions are generally preferred for daily temperature, and for medium-range (6–10 and 8–14 day) temperature and precipitation forecasts. However, the better sharpness of medium-range ensemble-dressing forecasts sometimes yields the best Brier scores even though their calibration is somewhat worse. Using the long (15 or 25 yr) training samples that are available with these reforecasts improves the accuracy and skill of these probabilistic forecasts to levels that are approximately equivalent to gains of 1 day of lead time, relative to using short (1 or 2 yr) training samples.
Statistical Downscaling of Extreme Precipitation Events Using Censored Quantile Regression
Authors: Friederichs P. , Hense A.
Published: June 2007

A statistical downscaling approach for extremes using censored quantile regression is presented. Conditional quantiles of station data (e.g., daily precipitation sums) in Germany are estimated by means of the large-scale circulation as represented by the NCEP reanalysis data. It is shown that a mixed discrete–continuous response variable, such as a daily precipitation sum, can be statistically modeled by a censored variable. Furthermore, a conditional quantile skill score is formulated to assess the relative gain of a quantile forecast compared with a reference forecast. Just like multiple regression for expectation values, quantile regression provides a tool to formulate a model output statistics system for extremal quantiles.