bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A new legislative framework for mental capacity and mental health legislation in Northern Ireland: an analysis of the current proposals
Authors: McCallion Maura , O'Hare Ursula
Published: December 2015

When the Bamford Review of Mental Health and Learning Disability completed its work in the autumn of 2007, it drew to a close an extensive consultation and analysis of mental health and learning disability services and the law in Northern Ireland. Its last report on A Comprehensive Legislative Framework made
a compelling case for a major overhaul of the law that the Review team itself described as ‘quite radical’. The Review identified the case for reform in the need to ensure that mental health law conforms to the requirements of human rights law, reflects changes to professional practice, reflects the needs of service
users and their carers, and keeps pace with reform elsewhere in the UK. Alone of all the jurisdictions in the UK, Northern Ireland has been operating largely in a legislative vacuum in relation to mental capacity law. The Review’s proposals for reform therefore extended to reform of mental health law and the introduction of mental capacity law.

In the autumn of 2008 the NI Executive published its response to the Bamford Review indicating that it intended to develop the law sequentially: reform of the Mental Health (NI) Order 1986 by 2011 followed by the introduction of mental capacity law in 2014. Responses to the Executive’s consultation resulted in
the Department of Health Social Services and Public Safety (DHSSPS) revising its approach and it signalled its intention to bring forward mental capacity and mental health legislation together. This reated a unique opportunity in Northern Ireland for fusion of incapacity and mental health legislation. A further consultation paper was issued in January 2009, setting out the key approaches to the content
of two bills. However as a result of the consultation, the Health Minister Michael McGimpsey announced in September 2009 that there would be a single bill with an overall principle of autonomy. His press statement noted: “ A strong body of opinion, particularly from professional groups and lead voluntary organisations, which considered that separate mental health legislation continues to be stigmatising and recommended that mental capacity and mental health provisions should instead be encompassed into a single piece of legislation”

This short paper provides an overview of the current direction of travel on law reform in Northern Ireland. It comments on the policy climate and arguments for a fusion of mental capacity and mental health legislation. It also highlights some of the key policy issues that will need to be further explored as the Department develops its law reform proposals and concludes with some hopes and fears for the new legislation.
Foreword
Authors: Horne John
Published: December 2015

Since publication of the last issue of the Journal, there has been considerable and increasing speculation about the Government’s timetable, and indeed intentions, with regards to progressing the reform of mental health legislation as outlined in the White Paper published in December 2000. As this issue goes to print, the uncertainty persists, as does the debate on what will/should be the detail of the Bill to be presented in due course to Parliament. Consistent with our aim when publishing previous issues, we intend that the contents of this issue of the Journal will contribute to that debate.
Psychopathic Disorder – Concept or Chimera
Authors: Prins Herschel
Published: December 2015

This paper, which is divided into five parts, has been prompted by the continuing interest in the complex and emotive topic of psychopathic disorder1 and the possibility of a government Bill aimed at revising the current mental health legislation being introduced in 2003. The unclear nature of the condition and the controversies surrounding it are well encapsulated in the two quotations that head this paper. One or two other literary allusions will also be called in aid later.
Some thoughts on the proposed Mental Health Act
Authors: Gunn Professor Michael , Holland Professor Tony
Published: December 2015

Our thoughts on the proposed Mental Health Act are a product of us working together for a considerable period of time and feeling that we have something to offer jointly by bringing together our legal and psychiatric perspectives.

The main thrust of our thoughts is that we have a fundamental problem with the reform of mental health law as proposed. We are beginning to question whether there is any need for a mental health act at all. In any case, legislation which interferes with the freedoms of others should, we believe, be predicated on the libertarian model as espoused by John Stuart Mill.
Right to life – European Convention on Human Rights
Authors: Lewis Oliver
Published: December 2015

Paul and Audrey Edwards v. The United Kingdom
(2002) 35 EHRR 19
European Court of Human Rights
Chamber composed of Mr Cabral Barreto (President), Sir Nicolas Bratza, Mr Caflisch,
Mr Kuris, Mr Türmen, Mrs Greve and Mr Traja.
Judgment 14 March 2002, Application number 46477/99
Re-detention after a tribunal discharge – the last word?
Authors: Hewitt David , Stern Kristina
Published: December 2015

 R v East London and the City Mental Health NHS Trust and another, ex parte von Brandenburg (aka Hanley) [2003] UKHL 58

House of Lords (13 November 2003). Lord Bingham; Lord Steyn; Lord Hobhouse of Woodborough; Lord Scott of Foscote; Lord Rodger of Earlsferry

A psychiatric patient who has been recently discharged from detention may be lawfully re-detained where the relevant ASW forms the reasonable and bona fide opinion that he or she has information not known to the tribunal that puts a significantly different complexion on the case.
The Michael Stone Inquiry – A Reflection
Authors: Francis Robert
Published: December 2015

On 9th July 1996 Lin Russell and her two young daughters, Megan and Josie, were subjected to an horrific assault in broad daylight in a peaceful country lane. Over a year later, Michael Stone, a man with a history of mental disorder, drug abuse and violence was arrested, following information passed to the police by his psychiatrist in response to a Crimewatch reconstruction.

This article examines the details of the case and considers the varying application of the clinical and criminal systems to dangerously disordered individuals.
Casenotes: The Incompatible Burden of Proof at Mental Health Review Tribunals
Authors: Eldergill Anselm
Published: December 2015

R v Mental Health Review Tribunal, on the application of H [2001] EWCA Civ 415

Court of Appeal (28th March 2001)

Lord Phillips MR, Kennedy and Dyson LJJ

 
Casenotes: MHRT Target Hearing Times and the ECHR
Authors: Trowler Rebecca
Published: December 2015

The Queen (on the application of C) v London South and South West Region Mental Health Review Tribunal (Judgment given 21st December 2000 - unreported)

High Court (Queen’s Bench Division). Scott Baker J.
Flow Behavior Through Porous Media and Microdisplacement Performances of Hydrophobically Modified Partially Hydrolyzed Polyacrylamide
Authors: Guo Yongjun , Hu Jun , Zhang Xinmin , Feng Rusen , Li Huabing
Published: December 2015

To investigate the relationship between the flow behavior and microdisplacement performance and the molecular structures, especially associating monomer content, of hydrophobically modified partially hydrolyzed polyacrylamides (HMHPAMs) with varied associating monomer content, compared with that of partially hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM), a series of experiments were conducted that involved the filtration through screen viscometer, nucleopore membrane, and series-connection microporous membranes; the flow through three serial mounted artificial cores; and the displacement in the microetching model. The screen factors and the hydrodynamic sizes of polymers were obtained by screen viscometer and nucleopore membrane, respectively. The results show that the screen factors and hydrodynamic sizes of HMHPAMs were much-more sensitive to the polymer concentration, filtration pressure, and associating monomer content than HPAM. Moreover, the filtration experiment through series-connection microporous membranes indicates that there were moderate associating monomer content or greater flow pressure or pore size for HMHPAMs to easily pass and obtain equivalent differential pressure between membranes, which implies that the compatibility between the pore size and the hydrodynamic sizes of the microstructures is the most-important factor for the injectivity of HMHPAMs. The resistance factor (RF) established by HMHPAMs through three serial mounted artificial cores notably tended to be higher than HPAMs, and the HMHPAMs with higher associating monomer content could generate a greater RF. In contrast, when the associating monomer content was low enough and the permeability was high enough, the flow could obtain equilibrium easily and the RFs were almost in accordance, which indicate there was moderate associating monomer content for HMHPAMs to propagate deep into the cores. At the same viscosity, HMHPAMs had better microdisplacement efficiency than glycerol (no effect) and HPAM (a small portion) for displacing the residual oil trapped in the “dead” ends of flow channel. The pilot tests of the associative polymer AP-P4, which was developed for Bohai oil fields, have demonstrated the great application potential of HMHPAMs for enhanced oil recovery (EOR).
Four free surface algorithms for the 3D Navier–Stokes equations
Authors: Olsen Nils Reidar B.
Published: December 2015

Four algorithms are described for computing a steady free water surface with the solution of the three-dimensional (3D) Navier–Stokes equations. The numerical methods are used in hydraulic engineering cases, typically spillways and river modelling. The algorithms were tested against a laboratory experiment of a v-shaped broad-crested weir. The complex geometry of the weir introduced three-dimensional effects, which the numerical methods handled with varying degrees of success. One of the methods tested was the classical volume of fluid (VOF) approach, implemented in the OpenFOAM software with a fixed grid. The other three algorithms used an adaptive grid that followed the free water surface. These methods were coded in the SSIIM 2 program and were based on water continuity, pressure differences and an implicit solution of the diffusive wave equation. The VOF method gave the best results compared with the experiments. However, this method requires a very short time step. Two of the investigated methods compute the water surface location implicitly and can therefore use a much longer time step. The method based on the diffusive wave equation has the disadvantage that the results depend on a calibrated friction factor. All four methods predicted the water depth over the weir with an average accuracy below 14%.
Sensitivity of algorithm parameters and objective function scaling in multi-objective optimisation of water distribution systems
Authors: Mala-Jetmarova Helena , Barton Andrew , Bagirov Adil
Published: December 2015

This paper presents an extensive analysis of the sensitivity of multi-objective algorithm parameters and objective function scaling tested on a large number of parameter setting combinations for a water distribution system optimisation problem. The optimisation model comprises two operational objectives minimised concurrently, the pump energy costs and deviations of constituent concentrations as a water quality measure. This optimisation model is applied to a regional non-drinking water distribution system, and solved using the optimisation software GANetXL incorporating the NSGA-II linked with the network analysis software EPANet. The sensitivity analysis employs a set of performance metrics, which were designed to capture the overall quality of the computed Pareto fronts. The performance and sensitivity of NSGA-II parameters using those metrics is evaluated. The results demonstrate that NSGA-II is sensitive to different parameter settings, and unlike in the single-objective problems, a range of parameter setting combinations appears to be required to reach a Pareto front of optimal solutions. Additionally, inadequately scaled objective functions cause the NSGA-II bias towards the second objective. Lastly, the methodology for performance and sensitivity analysis may be used for calibration of algorithm parameters.
The role of soil moisture accounting in estimation of soil evaporation and transpiration
Authors: Ghazanfari Sadegh , Pande Saket , Cheema M. J. M. , Alizadeh Amin , Farid Alireza
Published: December 2015

In this study, we explore how the differences in soil moisture accounting affect the estimation of actual soil evaporation (E) and transpiration (T). The main objective is, therefore, a comparative assessment of a vapor flux estimation method which has explicit soil moisture accounting, against a vapor flux estimation method that uses satellite observed soil moisture data. Three methods with different representations of water supply dynamics are compared: (1) ETLook, wherein E and T are estimated using Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer – Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) derived soil moisture data; (2) a simple evaporation transpiration scheme (SETS) that has a similar vaporization representation as ETLook but with soil moisture accounting based on the MOSAIC Land Surface Model; and (3) SETS-AMS which is similar to SETS except that the AMSR-E derived soil moisture controls the top layer mass balance. The schemes are compared on the Indus River Basin for the year 2007 at 1 km spatial resolution. The results suggest that downward soil water flux influences the estimation of E and T. This effect is especially dominant in areas with high soil moisture content. The comparative assessment reveals how lack of explicit soil moisture accounting may lead to an overestimation of E and underestimation of T, especially in irrigated areas.
The eReefs data brokering layer for hydrological and environmental data
Authors: Yu Jonathan , Leighton Benjamin , Car Nicholas , Seaton Shane , Hodge Jonathan
Published: December 2015

The environmental sciences are witnessing a data revolution as large amounts of data are being made available at an increasing rate. Many datasets are being published through operational monitoring programs, research activities and global earth observation virtual laboratories. An important aspect is the ability to query relevant metadata which can potentially provide useful information to discover, access and interpret environmental datasets, information about the data providers themselves, data services, data encodings, observation and measurement properties and data service endpoints. However, support for producing and accessing metadata descriptions in a flexible, extensible, easily integrated and easily discovered manner is lacking as current methods require interpreting multiple standards and formalisms. In this paper, we propose components to streamline discovery and access of hydrological and environmental data: a Data Provider Node ontology (DPN-O) which allows precise descriptions to be captured about datasets, data services and their interfaces; and a Data Brokering Layer which provides an Application Programming Interface (API) for registering metadata for discovery and query of registered DPN datasets. We discuss this work in the context of the eReefs project which is developing an integrated information platform for discovery and visualization of observational and modelled data of the Great Barrier Reef.
Multi-objective calibration of the physically based, spatially distributed SHETRAN hydrological model
Authors: Zhang Rong , Moreira Madalena , Corte-Real João
Published: December 2015

Physically based, spatially distributed hydrological models have mostly been calibrated manually; a few were calibrated automatically but without full consideration of conflicting multi-objectives. Here, we successfully applied the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II (NSGA-II) and its two variants, namely the reference point-based R-NSGA-II and the extension ER-NSGA-II, to multi-objective, automatic calibration of the SHETRAN hydrological model. Moreover, we demonstrated the possibility of speeding up the calibration process by adjusting the recombination and mutation parameters of the optimization algorithms. The simulated binary crossover and polynomial mutation were used with respective probabilities of 0.9 and 0.1, and crossover and mutation distribution indices (ηc, ηm) with values of (0.5, 0.5), (2.0, 0.5) and (20., 20.). The results indicate that the use of smaller (ηc, ηm) speeded up the optimization process of SHETRAN calibration, especially during the initial stage, for all three algorithms; however, the use of the R-NSGA-II and ER-NSGA-II did not provide a more efficient optimization compared to the NSGA-II. The broad search of the algorithms, enabled by the generation of diversified solutions due to the use of small (ηc, ηm), contributed to the improved efficiency. Finally, we successfully validated the optimal solutions for both the basin outlet and the internal gauging stations.
Impact assessment of multiple uncertainty sources on high flows under climate change
Authors: Tian Ye , Xu Yue-Ping , Booij Martijn J. , Cao Long
Published: December 2015

This paper aims to investigate the uncertainty ranges of high flows under climate change in Jinhua River basin, eastern China. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs), three global climate models (GCMs), 10 downscaling parameter sets and three hydrologic models are applied to simulate future discharges. Changes of annual maximum discharges are assessed for the baseline period (1961–1990) and future period (2011–2040). The uncertainties of annual maximum discharges are calculated for each uncertainty source and compared with different combinations of them. The minimum temperature will probably increase all year round in the future period and maximum temperature would increase in most cases. The changes of precipitation showed different directions by different models and emission scenarios. The annual maximum discharges would decrease for all RCPs. The order of uncertainty ranges of high flows due to different uncertainty sources from high to low is: hydrologic models, GCMs, parameter sets in the downscaling method and emission scenarios. It must be noted that the small uncertainty contribution from different emission scenarios is due to the study period when the differences in increase of radiative forcing and greenhouse gas concentration are less obvious between different RCPs compared to the second half of the 21st century.
Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler measurements near a weir with fish pass: assessing solutions to compass errors, spatial data referencing and spatial flow heterogeneity
Authors: Kriechbaumer Thomas , Blackburn Kim , Everard Nick , Rivas Casado Monica
Published: December 2015

There has been an increasing interest in the use of Acoustic Doppler Current Profilers (ADCPs) to characterise the hydraulic conditions near river engineering structures such as dams, fish passes and groins, as part of ecological and hydromorphological assessments. However, such ADCP applications can be limited by compass errors, obstructed view to navigation satellites, frequent loss of bottom tracking and spatially heterogeneous flow leading to erroneous water velocity measurements. This study addresses these limitations by (i) developing a heading sensor integration algorithm that corrects compass errors from magnetic interference, (ii) testing a Total Station based technique for spatial ADCP data referencing and (iii) evaluating a recently proposed data processing technique that reduces bias from spatial flow heterogeneity. The integration of these techniques on a radio control ADCP platform is illustrated downstream of a weir with fish pass on the River Severn, UK. The results show that each of the techniques can have a statistically significant effect on the estimated total water velocities and can strongly affect measures of vorticity. The obtained three-dimensional flow maps are suitable to describe the magnitude and orientation of the fish pass attraction flow in relation to competing flows and to highlight areas of increased vorticity.
Runoff changes and their potential links with climate variability and anthropogenic activities: a case study in the upper Huaihe River Basin, China
Authors: Zhu Ye , Wang Wen , Liu Yi , Wang Hongjie
Published: December 2015

The impacts of climate variability and anthropogenic activities on hydrological processes have been of wide concern in the hydrology community during recent decades. In this study, specific investigations of individual impacts of climate variability and anthropogenic activities on runoff during 1964–2010 are conducted for the upper Huaihe River Basin at Huaibin (HB) and its five sub-catchments. The non-stationary relationship between precipitation and runoff was firstly analyzed, and according to change point detection results, long-term series for each catchment was divided into pre-change period and post-change period, respectively. Then, the climate variability and human activities that occurred in the whole HB catchment were analyzed. Finally, using two quantitative evaluation methods, the individual impacts of climate variability and human activities for each catchment were assessed. The results showed that for the whole HB catchment, runoff changes during the whole post-change period are mainly attributed to climate variability, as for its sub-catchments except the Xinxian catchment. As for decadal behaviors, runoff generally suffered more human-induced impacts in dry decades (1990s) than wet decades (1980s and 2000s). These results reflected the complex role of climate variability and human activities in influencing the runoff regime, which could be considered in local water resources management.
Investigating a complex lake-catchment-river system using artificial neural networks: Poyang Lake (China)
Authors: Li Y. L. , Zhang Q. , Werner A. D. , Yao J.
Published: December 2015

Lake hydrological simulations using physically based models are cumbersome due to extensive data and computational requirements. Despite an abundance of previous modeling investigations, real-time simulation tools for large lake systems subjected to multiple stressors are lacking. The back-propagation neural network (BPNN) is applied as a first attempt to simulate the water-level variations of a large lake, exemplified by the Poyang Lake (China) case study. The BPNN investigation extends previous modeling efforts by considering the Yangtze River effect and evaluating the influence of the Yangtze River on the lake water levels. Results indicate that the effects of both the lake catchment and the Yangtze River are required to produce reasonable BPNN calibration statistics. Modeling results suggest that the Yangtze River plays a significant role in modifying the lake water-level changes. Comparison of BPNN models to a 2D hydrodynamic model (MIKE 21) shows that comparable accuracies can be obtained from both modeling approaches. This implies that the BPNN approach is well suited to long-term predictions of the water-level responses of Poyang Lake. The findings of this work demonstrate that BPNN can be used as a valuable and computationally efficient tool for future water resource planning and management of the Poyang Lake.
Finite element modelling of a heavily exploited coastal aquifer for assessing the response of groundwater level to the changes in pumping and rainfall variation due to climate change
Authors: Pandian Rajaveni Sundara , Nair Indu Sumadevi , Lakshmanan Elango
Published: December 2015

Coastal aquifers are always under threat of seawater intrusion due to over-extraction of groundwater. The objective here is to assess aquifer response to variation in pumping and rainfall recharge due to projected climate change by groundwater modelling in a heavily exploited aquifer. Finite element groundwater flow modelling was carried out from March 1988 to December 2030 using FEFLOW software. Steady state calibration was done to match observed and simulated groundwater head by varying aquifer parameters within the allowable range. Transient state calibration was carried out during the period March 1988 to December 2002. The calibrated model was validated by comparing the simulated and observed groundwater head from January 2003 to December 2012. Groundwater head was predicted for a period until 2030 under eight different scenarios of changes in pumping and rainfall recharge. This prediction indicated that 10% increase of recharge and 10% decrease of pumping causes 3 m and 6 m increase in groundwater head in upper and lower aquifers, respectively, by the end of 2030. Groundwater recharge can be increased by rejuvenation of existing surface water bodies, check dams and construction of proposed check dams. Thus, increase of groundwater recharge and decrease in well field pumping is achievable to restore this heavily exploited coastal aquifer in another 20 years.
Post-validation of SWAT model in a coastal watershed for predicting land use/cover change impacts
Authors: Singh Harsh Vardhan , Kalin Latif , Morrison Andrew , Srivastava Puneet , Lockaby Graeme , Pan Shufen
Published: December 2015

Watershed models are typically calibrated and validated with the same land use and land cover (LULC) dataset and later used in assessing impacts of changing LULC, such as urbanization, on hydrology and/or water quality. However, their performance in predicting water quality/quantity in response to changing LULC is rarely assessed. The main objective of this paper was to explore the performance of the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) in predicting water quality and quantity in response to changing LULC in a coastal watershed in Alabama, USA. Using the 1992 LULC as the input, the model was calibrated and validated for flow for the period 1990–1998, and for total suspended solids (TSS), nitrate (NO3−), and organic phosphorus for the period 1994–1998 at several sites within the watershed. The model was then driven with the 2008 LULC data and its performance in predicting flow and TSS, NO3−, and total-P loads during the period 2008–2010 was evaluated (post-validation). SWAT showed good performance in predicting changes in flow and water quality during the post-validation period. The study also highlighted the importance of using the most up-to-date LULC data for effectively predicting the impacts of LULC changes on water quality.
Assessing parameter uncertainty in semi-distributed hydrological model based on type-2 fuzzy analysis: a case study of Kaidu River Basin
Authors: Wang C. X. , Li Y. P. , Zhang J. L. , Huang G. H.
Published: December 2015

In this study, a type-2 fuzzy simulation method (TFSM) is developed for modeling hydrological processes associated with vague information through coupling type-2 fuzzy analysis technique with the semi-distributed land use based runoff processes (SLURP) model. TFSM can handle fuzzy sets with uncertain membership function related to hydrological modeling parameters and reveal the effects of such uncertain parameters on the hydrological processes. Streamflow calibration and verification are performed using the hydrological data for the Kaidu River Basin, China. The statistical values of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, determination coefficient, and deviation of volume indicate a good performance of SLURP in describing the streamflow at the outlet of the Kaidu River Basin. Based on TFSM, the effects of four uncertain parameters such as precipitation factor (PF), maximum capacity for fast store, retention constant for fast store (RF), and retention constant for slow store, on the hydrological processes are analyzed under different α-cut levels. Results demonstrate that the uncertainty associated with PF has significant effect on the simulated streamflow, while the uncertainty associated with RF has slight effect among the four parameters. These findings are helpful for improving efficiency in hydrological prediction and enhancing the model applicability.
Selection and prioritization of mitigation measures to realize climate neutral operation of a water cycle company
Authors: van der Hoek Jan Peter , Mol Stefan , Janse Theo , Klaversma Enna , Kappelhof Joost
Published: December 2015

Waternet, the public water cycle utility of Amsterdam and surroundings, has the ambition to operate climate neutrally in 2020. This requires a reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 48 kton CO2-eq. An inventory was made of measures to realize the target either in 2020 or in 2050. For all measures the effects on GHG emissions and on costs were determined. To comply with two core values of Waternet – economic effectivity and sustainability – the measures were prioritized based on CO2 effectivity, defined as costs per ton GHG emission reduction. To realize the target in 2020, 34 measures have to be implemented. The total investments are € 60 million, while the measures result in a decrease in yearly costs of € 5 million from 2020 onwards. In the case where the target has to be realized in 2050, 10 measures have to be implemented with a total investment of € 100 million and a decrease in yearly costs of € 16 million from 2050 onwards. As the cumulative cost savings in 2050 are € 50 million higher for the case where the target is already reached in 2020, and the uncertainty is lower, the realization of the target in 2020 is preferred.
Accounting for adaptation in assessing impact of climatic variations on crop yields: an empirical study of Arizona
Authors: Wang Haoying
Published: December 2015

The goal of this paper is to analyze the impacts of climatic variation around current normals on crop yields and explore corresponding adaptation effects in Arizona, using a unique panel data. The empirical results suggest that both fertilizer use and irrigation are important adaptations to climate change in crop production. Fertilizer use has a positive impact on crop yields as expected. When accounting for irrigation and its interaction with temperature, a moderate temperature increase tends to be beneficial to both cotton and hay yields. The empirical model in this paper features with two methodological innovations, identifying the effects of temperature change conditional on adaptations and incorporating potential spatial spillover effects among input use.
The role of conceptual hydrologic model calibration in climate change impact on water resources assessment
Authors: Todorovic Andrijana , Plavsic Jasna
Published: December 2015

Assessment of climate change (CC) impact on hydrologic regime requires a calibrated rainfall-runoff model, defined by its structure and parameters. The parameter values depend, inter alia, on the calibration period. This paper investigates influence of the calibration period on parameter values, model efficiency and streamflow projections under CC. To this end, a conceptual HBV-light model of the Kolubara River catchment in Serbia is calibrated against flows observed within 5 consecutive wettest, driest, warmest and coldest years and in the complete record period. The optimised parameters reveal high sensitivity towards calibration period. Hydrologic projections under climate change are developed by employing (1) five hydrologic models with outputs of one GCM–RCM chain (Global and Regional Climate Models) and (2) one hydrologic model with five GCM–RCM outputs. Sign and magnitude of change in projected variables, compared to the corresponding values simulated over the baseline period, vary with the hydrologic model used. This variability is comparable in magnitude to variability stemming from climate models. Models calibrated over periods with similar precipitation as the projected ones may result in less uncertain projections, while warmer climate is not expected to contribute to the uncertainty in flow projections. Simulations over prolonged dry periods are expected to be uncertain.
Adaptation tipping points and opportunities for urban flood risk management
Authors: Koukoui Nadia , Gersonius Berry , Schot Paul P. , van Herk Sebastiaan
Published: December 2015

The effects of climate change are expected to increase the frequency and magnitude of floods, droughts and heat waves. An emerging method termed adaptation tipping point – opportunity (ATP-O) assesses a system's climate-incurred tipping points and uses opportunities arising from urban developments to introduce adaptation strategies while reducing investment costs. The objective of this research was to apply the ATP-O method to the city of Dordrecht in the Netherlands. The results show that the alternative adaptation strategy proposed (an overland drainage system) would be effective in coping with the effects of climate change where the current management strategy (disconnection of impervious surfaces from sewer systems) fails to do so. The ATP-O also proved helpful in identifying opportunities to adapt at lower costs. This research stimulated discussions between stakeholders on performance objectives, policy development, investment strategies, and flood risk management practices. The sensitivity analysis performed to support such discussion revealed that small variations in acceptability thresholds, associated with policy objectives, can have significant impact on ATP occurrence and timing.
Water resources management in the context of future climate and development changes: a South African case study
Authors: Mantel S. K. , Hughes D. A. , Slaughter A. S.
Published: December 2015

Modelling uncertainty under future climate change and socio-economic development is essential for adaptive planning and sustainable management of water resources. This is the first study in South Africa incorporating uncertainty within climate and development scenario modelling for understanding the implications on water availability through comparison of the resulting uncertainty. A Water Evaluation and Planning model application was developed for the Amatole system (South Africa), which consists of three catchments with inter-basin transfers. Outputs for three sets of scenarios are presented, namely development-only, climate-change-only and climate-and-development scenarios. Near future (2046–2065) development uncertainty was estimated from three scenarios (lower, intermediate and upper) and climate change uncertainty from nine downscaled global climate models under the A2 emissions scenario. Consideration of development increased the uncertainty associated with climate-change-only scenarios, particularly at low flows. Water deficits are projected in the future for the Amatole system as the present water infrastructure cannot meet water demands under the near future intermediate and upper development scenarios. The deficits are likely to be exacerbated by inclusion of environmental flows (not included in the model). The recommended strategy is that of adaptive management, in combination with continual monitoring of climate and development changes, for reducing future uncertainty.
The impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on surface water supply systems in Scotland
Authors: Afzal Muhammad , Gagnon Alexandre S. , Mansell Martin G.
Published: December 2015

This paper analyses the impact of the variability and periodicity of rainfall on the reliability of water supply systems in Scotland. A conceptual rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate catchment runoff, and the reliability of 29 notional and six actual reservoirs was calculated using a simple storage model. The relationship between water supply reliability and the variability of rainfall was then investigated using different measures of variability. A strong correlation was found between reservoir reliability and measures representing the distribution of rainfall between the winter and summer seasons, as well as the cumulative sum (CUSUM) of annual precipitation, quantifying the variability of rainfall between years. In contrast, mainly the intra-annual CUSUM range and the variance of monthly precipitation influenced the reliability of river-intake schemes. The presence of periodic patterns in rainfall anomalies was found to be more prevalent in West Scotland, where reservoir reliability is on average lower than in the East. In addition, a sensitivity analysis revealed the small influence of evapotranspiration on reservoir reliability in comparison to rainfall variability. This study reveals the measures of variability most affecting the reliability of surface water supplies in Scotland, and could therefore help with their management in the context of future climate change.
The role of science in improving government accountability to society
Authors: Marin L. E. , Sanchez Ramirez E. , Martinez V.
Published: December 2015

The water governance elements for Mexico are presented, using the trialogue model. Three examples of water governance for Aguascalientes, Guerrero and the Yucatan are given. In all three cases, there is a strong presence of the federal government. In two cases, where there is a stronger science or society element, there is improved water governance. Activities of the Water Network of the Mexican Academy of Sciences, that are enhancing the science–society, and science–government interfaces are presented. This paper shows how a group of scientists are trying to improve the water governance in Mexico through the development of stronger interfaces between science and society so that, eventually, a better informed society may hold its policy-makers accountable.
The role of research in informing the governance process of the use of ecosystem resources
Authors: Mitchell S. A. , Breen C. M.
Published: December 2015

We argue that cooperative governance is a cornerstone of successful management of the use of ecosystems. Even where good institutions exist, the challenge is to establish a process of “collective action” that enables society to work through conflicting goals and values in a process of structured co-learning as they relate to the use of natural resources. Research enables informed collective action and is therefore central to informed governance of the use of ecosystems. In this paper we establish a framework for evaluating the role of research in informing the governance process. Selected case studies are used to assess how research has informed governance, their findings are discussed and lessons are drawn from these.
Water governance: trends and needs for new capacity development
Authors: Tropp Håkan
Published: December 2015

New forms of governance focusing on process-oriented societal co-steering through, for example, formal and informal networks, partnerships and dialogue, have emerged within the water sector. The governance transformation is intrinsically linked to the increasing focus on the complexity of water management and the multifunctional character of water and the search for alternative forms of organisation. The emergence of concepts like integrated water resources management and river basin management should be seen in the light of the governance transformation. The full potential of the governance transformation for improved management of water resources and services is yet to be fully realised. Water decision-makers and managers are currently not prepared to fully realise the development potentials of new forms of governance, such as facilitating inclusive decision-making processes, coordination and negotiated outcomes. There is thus a need for additional sociocratic knowledge and capacity development that, for example, puts the emphasis on the management of people and processes, diversity of organisation and knowledge sharing. As a part of this it is paramount to treat politics as a part of the problem as well as of the solution and to broaden water issues outside the water sector itself.
Reconceptualizing hegemony: the circle of hydro-hegemony
Authors: Menga Filippo
Published: December 2015

This paper proposes a partial reconceptualization and a redesign of the Framework of Hydro-Hegemony, an analytical tool devised to study how power, hegemony, and power asymmetries can influence transboundary water politics. This is done by presenting the original Circle of Hydro-Hegemony (CHH), an analytical framework that places the neo-Gramscian notion of hegemony at the centre of its structure, to illustrate how various forms of power are connective in the function of hegemony. Following a theoretical discussion on how the concepts of power and hegemony can interact, the case of the Aral Sea basin in Central Asia provides a practical application of the CHH to transboundary water politics.
Water policy at science–policy interface – challenges and opportunities for India
Authors: Katyaini Suparana , Barua Anamika
Published: December 2015

Water scarcity is a serious concern in emerging economies, as it impacts human development, livelihoods, environment and economic growth. Policies should be formulated in a way that reflects the problem of water scarcity and is oriented towards providing solutions. The science–policy interface can play a key role in translating scientific knowledge into policy action and in mitigating water scarcity of emerging economies like that of India. Hence, the paper aims to review scientific knowledge on water scarcity in India, and analyze the extent to which this knowledge is reflected in the water policies – to understand the science–policy interface. This has been done by extensive review of various scientific approaches used to assess water scarcity at the national and state level. The analysis indicates that Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan and Gujarat in the north-west, and Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu in the south experience high water scarcity. To analyze whether this scientific knowledge has been translated into policy, existing water policies were critically reviewed. The paper, by identifying key policy areas, discusses challenges and opportunities for strengthening the science–policy interface, in the context of water scarcity mitigation. The paper argues that translating scientific knowledge into policy action continues to be a major challenge in India.
Determinants of water purchases by pistachio producers in an informal groundwater market: a case study from Iran
Authors: Jaghdani Tinoush Jamali , Brümmer Bernhard
Published: December 2015

Market-based water allocation systems have the potential to ensure that scarce water will flow to the user who earns the highest marginal value from that water. However, the number of recorded instances where water supply problems are solved by market-based systems remains limited. This study attempts to identify the decisive factors that motivate farmers’ participation in informal spot water markets in the Rafsanjan aquifer in south-eastern Iran. A two-stage random sampling was carried out in a field survey from November 2008 to February 2009. A logit model is used to test the factors affecting farmers’ decisions to buy groundwater from neighbours who share the same pump. The results show that the technological variables contribute substantially to the participation decision. For example, a decrease in water quality, an increase in the age of the garden, and an increase in the size of the water quota reduce the probability of participation. In contrast, more scattered plots, a higher water flow level from pumping, and a deeper well increase the probability of participation in water markets. Finally, the results suggest that in this area, the participation in water markets is motivated more by profit increasing factors than by farmer socioeconomic characteristics.
Stakeholders' preferred policy solution: comparing strategies to address degraded levees
Authors: Stoutenborough James W.
Published: December 2015

The levees along the Portneuf River around Pocatello, ID, have degraded to the point where action is necessary. Stakeholders have identified three potential policy actions that would address the levee issue – remove the existing levees, reinforce the existing levees, or remove and reconstruct new levees that incorporated green areas. While it appears that the strongest support was given to the reconstruction option, it is not clear which of these policy proposals are actually preferred by stakeholders. In short, if stakeholders had their way, which of these policies would be implemented? Using a survey of stakeholders in the Pocatello area, I compare the determinants of stakeholder policy preferences to determine how these preferences differ from one another. The analysis reveals these policy preferences are primarily driven by attitudinal indicators and risk perceptions.
Comparative analysis on the effectiveness of various filtration methods on the potability of water
Authors: Achio S. , Kutsanedzie F. , Ameko E.
Published: December 2015

This paper comparatively assessed the effectiveness of potable water filtration methods, commonly used in the hinterlands in some Ghanaian communities. Physico-chemical and microbiological analysis were carried out on pond, dam and river water samples, using spectrophotometric, pour plate count and the most probable number (MPN) methods. For the unfiltered water samples the total dissolved solids (TDS) and colour were the only parameters with values within recommended standards. The other parameters, total suspended solids (TSS), turbidity, total coliforms and bacterial counts levels were above their standard recommended values. All the filtration methods showed reduction in the levels or better accepted values of the physico-chemical and microbiological parameters. The ceramic filters and the household sand filters showed outstanding results, with all analysed parameters being within the acceptable standards levels. These two methods could be promoted for use to treat untreated drinking water. It is envisaged that a combination of a number of these methods would produce even better results, especially when agents such as alum and activated carbon are included. Follow-up research in this regard is therefore recommended.
Solid thickening and methane production of livestock wastewater using dissolved carbon dioxide flotation
Authors: Kwak Dong-Heui , Chae Soo-Wan
Published: December 2015

Dilute manure is classified as wastewater due to the large quantity of water used in livestock production in Korea. Livestock wastewater treatment is required in order to reduce high moisture content and treat fluids discharged from the digestion process. In livestock wastewater treatment plants, large quantities of CO2 gas are produced at combined heat and power facilities as well as in the anaerobic digestion (AD) process. This gas produced during livestock wastewater treatment can be used as a separator of solids from liquid in wastewater. In this study, a flotation system using recycled CO2 gas was used for sludge thickening. An anaerobic toxicity assay (ATA) and a biochemical methane potential assay were used to assess the toxicity impact of recycling CO2 on the methane production potential. ATA experiments confirmed that CO2 toxicity did not impair the AD process. The tests indicated that the cumulative methane yield from influent livestock manure enriched with CO2 was approximately 190 mL-CH4/g-VSadded. The data demonstrated the potential of using dissolved CO2 flotation in the AD of diluted livestock wastewater.