bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Are we scientists?.
Authors: Bailey W. G. , Haycocks H. W.
Published: August 2016

At a meeting of London Actuaries held in 1848 to discuss the formation of a professional organization, the following resolution was carried: ‘That this meeting considers it desirable to establish a scientific and practical association amongst the actuaries, secretaries and managers of the Life Assurance Societies of Great Britain.’ It is clear therefore that at the very beginning the prospective members regarded themselves as in some sense scientific.
Analysis of surplus in a Staff Pension Fund
Authors: MacIntosh R. I.
Published: August 2016

The subject of Analysis of Surplus is often approached by the student with unwarranted misgivings, but it is hoped to show in this paper that the main requirement is a clear understanding of the valuation processes and assumptions.

Every valuation is based on a series of estimates and assumptions and it is a natural sequence that, at the end of a valuation period, these should be tested to see to what extent their adoption has been justified by experience. It can therefore be said that Analysis is the corollary of Valuation.
On Waring's B-formula
Authors: Bizley M. T. L.
Published: August 2016

In the theory of Life Contingencies there arises the problem of determining the probability that exactlyrlives shall survive a stated period of time out ofnlives of different ages. This is of course a special case of a general question in Probability which may be stated thus: If there arenindependent events whose individual probabilities of occurring at a single trial arep1,p2…pn, what in terms ofp1,p2…pnis the probability that at a single trial of each exactlyrof them shall occur?

The developments given in the text-books of King and Spurgeon are familiar to all, but these are not the only methods that have been evolved. Different proofs have appeared from time to time in various publications, most of them in foreign languages, and it is the object of the present paper to collect these together so that they may be easily accessible for reference and comparison. This would appear to be desirable because the question cited above is fundamental in Life Contingencies and in Probability, and also because some of the most satisfactory proofs are to be found only in foreign technical works and have not hitherto been published in English.
Note on Suttie's ‘Some points arising in a net premium valuation’
Authors: Springbett T. M.
Published: August 2016

The conclusion reached from a consideration of Table 1, that ‘in a perfectly stationary fund…the bonus for which the premium scale is loaded will emerge from a net premium valuation whatever margin is allowed between the experience and the valuation rate of interest’, is difficult to accept without a more detailed investigation.

At first sight it appears to be supported by the incontrovertible argument that if the premiums are loaded to allow for a £2 % bonus and the experience is exactly that assumed in the calculation of the premiums, the profit made must be sufficient to pay a level bonus of £2 % per annum irrespective of the valuation basis. In a stationary fund, therefore, it might be argued that the valuation basis cannot affect the surplus brought out each year.
Proof of the distributions of X2, of the estimate of variance, and of the variance ratio
Authors: Wishart John
Published: August 2016

In the discussion on the paper ‘The Variance Ratio test in Statistics’, given to the Students' Society on 13 December 1946, and printed inJ.S.S.Vol. VI (1947), p. 172, the desire was expressed for a proof by relatively elementary methods of the distribution of the variance ratio. As such a proof must first derive the distribution ofX2modified into that of a variance estimate, three distributions are involved (in addition to that of the sample mean). The various steps are given in this paper. A note is added on the probability integral of the variance ratio distribution.
Premiums payable more frequently than once a year.
Authors: Gunlake J. H.
Published: August 2016

InJ.I.A.Vol. XLIV, pp. 261–83., Lidstone developed, as far as terms involvingμ. andδ, the adjustments required in a valuation in order to allow for premiums payable more frequently than once a year. Practical working approximations to these adjustments were also given, and were summarized in a table at the end of the paper, which for convenience of reference is here reproduced (the symbol OS is used to denote the instalments of premium falling due between the valuation date and the next ensuing policy anniversary).
The Classical Theory of risk— a statistical approach
Authors: Williams Kennedy
Published: August 2016

The purpose of this note is to develop some of the formulae of the classical theory of risk by a uniform treatment in which the “deaths’ column of the life table is considered as a discontinuous frequency distribution. The paper thus forms an example of the application of standard statistical processes to actuarial theory, and also supplies demonstrations of certain of the results quoted without proof in the survey by E. Lukacs. The aim has been to provide an elementary introduction both to an actuarial subject long neglected in this country, and to statistical methods of general utility.

The paper owes its origin to a stimulating series of talks on the Theory of Risk, given by S. Vajda to the statistical Study Group of the Society. The particular approach adopted and the treatment of composite policies are thought to be original.
Methods of bonus distribution with special reference to the reduction of premium system
Authors: Peter A. E.
Published: August 2016

The records of papers read before the Students' Society or published in its Journal contain few references to the system whereby surplus is allotted to policyholders primarily in the form of reduction of premium. It is thought that this system would form a suitable subject for discussion and would be of interest to members as well as of value to those students who are concerned in their studies with Valuation and Surplus.

The description of the system contained in Mr R. K. Lochhead's book issued in the Consolidation of Reading Series is necessarily brief, and it may be convenient to enlarge on this by tracing the development of the system in one of the offices which has transacted this class of business for upwards of one hundred years dating from the early 1800's.
The stock exchange in practice
Authors: Asbury H. G.
Published: August 2016

This paper is submitted in the hope that it will assist members who are not actively concerned with investment matters to obtain a reasonably clear picture of the Stock Exchange and how it works.

The main object of the Stock Exchange, as an institution, is simply to provide a market for stocks and shares, i.e. rights to interest or dividends. Such a market has been in existence in one form and another since the latter part of the seventeenth century, and is virtually a necessity in the modern capital structure. Without it the investor would be loth to lock up his money in a joint-stock undertaking, and, if he did, would have difficulty in assessing the value of his holding at any time. Moreover, he would have little to guide him in making the best use of his capital and, on the other hand, companies requiring funds (to say nothing of the Government) would find it hard to guess the best terms for a new issue.
The Consulting actuary and pension funds
Authors: Abbott R. W.
Published: August 2016

During the course of a discussion on Mr R. C. B. Lane's paper, ‘The Dissolution of a Superannuation Society’, presented to the Institute on 24 January 1949, Mr V. A. Burrows enunciated the dictum that a consulting actuary's function, in connexion with friendly societies and pension funds, was primarily an educative one. In his view, it was the actuary's duty to explain and expound the mysteries of his craft so that the laymen who formed committees of management, trustees, local authority finance committees—whoever his clients were—should obtain some grasp of the actuarial principles of their particular funds.

Most consulting actuaries would probably agree with this definition of their task. Their clients can generally give only superficial and spasmodic thought to their own funds, since their primary attention will be devoted to their own trades or businesses. The consulting actuary, on the other hand, meets a succession of technical and administrative problems bearing on friendly societies and pension funds, and in course of time he should be able to exercise wide judgment in these matters. Trustees and committees of management of pension funds should come to feel that they can turn to their actuary for guidance on all points of difficulty whether these are of principle, policy or administration.
A New Method for the Group Calculation of Reserves
Authors: Jecklin Heinrich
Published: August 2016

The following communication is not an original paper, but the summary of an article published by the author in collaboration with H. Zimmermann in theBulletin de l'Association des Actuaires Suisses, L, pt. 2 (1950). As the method of reserve calculation by grouping described below assumes a fundamentally new point of view and combines substantial advantages with great simplicity, it may, however, interest those actuaries who have no access to the original paper.

As is well known the individual valuation of every single policy, even for a medium-sized portfolio, is a long and arduous task. Therefore different methods for the valuation of policies grouped in certain ways have been in use for a long time. In this respect it is possible to distinguish methods giving the exact total of the individual reserves (e.g. the so-called Altenburger or Karup or valuation constant method) and those leading to approximate results (e.g. the Lidstone or Z-method). But most group methods have the evident disadvantage of a grouping which is in other respects inappropriate for the classification of the individual policy within the portfolio. Thus, in the valuation constant method, groups of equal age attained have to be formed, and the Z-method requires groups of the same remaining term. Yet one would much prefer a grouping which necessitates no sorting of the policies contrary to their natural grouping. Thus the putting together of all policies with the same year of entry for the purpose of collective reserve calculation is in some way a natural manner of grouping, and this was the procedure used in thet-method formerly proposed by the author.
Actuarial science and the theory of statistics
Authors: Perks Wilfred
Published: August 2016

The theory of statistics, like other scientific theories, can be divided into three fairly distinct sections; they are (1) the foundations of the theory, (2) the superstructure, and (3) the principles of application. It is, of course, possible to divide the subject in different ways; for example, the word ‘methodology’ is sometimes used to cover part of (2) and (3). But I find it helpful in thinking about the subject to make the division that I have indicated.

It is my purpose to show that actuarial science is essentially a particular application of the theory of statistics, that there is nothing very special about its superstructure and that in its application to practical affairs the universal principles apply. But I first want to make it clear that while I include the combination of compound interest functions with other actuarial functions as part of actuarial science I do not regard finance and investment as part of actuarial science proper. While treating finance and investment as a part of economics I appreciate that they represent an essential ingredient in the equipment of the practising actuary.
An example of the use of Power curves
Authors: Moore P. G.
Published: August 2016

The concept of a power function in statistics often proves rather difficult to absorb. Johnson & Tetley (1950) develop the theory at some length, and Forster (1947) in an admirable article in thisJournalprovides some extra reading which is of necessity in rather general terms. It is hoped that the problem discussed in this article may prove a useful example of the application of the power concept to a particular problem and clarify the underlying theoretical ideas.

In any statistical test two kinds of error may arise. The first kind of error occurs when the hypothesis tested, usually called the null hypothesis, is rejected when it is in fact true. The second kind of error occurs when the null hypothesis is accepted when it is in fact false. The hypothesis with which the test is concerned will in general be denoted by Hi. In our case simple hypotheses will be considered which are concerned with the value of some parameter defining the probability law of the individuals.
Friendly Societies
Authors: Geddes P.
Published: August 2016

How are the Friendlies faring? This catch-phrase was born soon after the take-over of Approved Societies in 1948 and was bandied about in Friendly Society circles for the next two or three years. It is perhaps a pity that the question had not been asked 10 or 15 years earlier. Be that as it may, the answer to-day is fairly clear.

That the Friendly Society movement as a social institution of the country is fast declining is, I think, undeniable. The Registrar's Statistical Summaries show that the total number of Registered Branches and Societies, excluding collecting societies, declined from 19,429 in 1939 to 15,226 in 1950. This apparently alarming fall, 20 % in 11 years, is not, however, quite so bad as it looks—of the total wastage of 4203 Societies, 2590 relates to Branches of the Affiliated Orders and reflects various policies of centralization, amalgamation and reorganization; actually many of the Branches which have been deleted from the Register still exist as agencies instead of autonomous units. In the same way, of the balance of 1613 wastages among Societies without Branches, a fair number will have been due to the amalgamation or absorption of different Societies.
Further remarks on the Wider Field
Authors: Menzler F. A. A.
Published: August 2016

By the courtesy of the editors, I submit some remarks which time did not permit me to utter during the discussion on Mr Spratling's, ‘paper.

At the meeting a member asked why should an actuary engaged in exercising his profession in a Life Office seek employment in the wide open spaces? The answer is, of course, that if his employment provides full contentment—as well as reasonable prospects—there is no earthly reason why he should be adventurous unless, of course, he is inclined that way. For it is an adventure to take on a job in an entirely new and unfamiliar environment, especially in industry, where the tendency is not to bother much about your academic or professional diplomas, and the test is rather what you can contribute to the work and prosperity of the firm.

Now what is it that we can contribute? It takes a good man to stand up to our training and examinations and come through unscathed.
The effect on pension fund contributions of a change in the entry age.
Authors: Bizley M. T. L.
Published: August 2016

In a previous paper (J.S.S.
9, 105) the present writer investigated the effect upon pension fund contribution rates of a change in the salary scale. A further note (J.S.S.
10, 47) discussed the effect of a change in the rate of interest. The present note is concerned with the variation in contribution rates with varying entry age, the actuarial bases remaining constant. The note takes account only of the contribution in respect of the pension benefit and disregards any additional contribution required to provide a benefit payable on death or withdrawal.

As before, we suppose that a single pension age, M, independent of entry age, sufficiently allows for normal, late and early retirements (if any) and that the pension is 100 k% of pensionable salary for each year of service.
The Determination of the Rate of Interest
Authors: Rose H. B.
Published: August 2016

References totherate of interest are frequent. In reality, of course, there is no single rate of interest but only a pattern of yields on individual assets or classes of assets. Nevertheless, it is useful as a first approximation to treat the complex of interest rates as a whole, thus bringing into sharper focus the forces that are common to the determination of the yield of all fixed-interest securities, with the exception of the risk of default. It is in this sense that the term ‘the rate of interest’ is used throughout this paper; consideration of the risk of default has been omitted as a variable that can easily be assimilated into the argument at any stage. The paper aims at making a broad survey of the most important forces that influence the rate of interest in a modern industrial economy where capital is for the most part in private hands. Where the assumption that we can regard interest rates as one united family departs too far from reality the more important qualifications that are needed are indicated very briefly.
Some Organizational Problems in a Life Office
Authors: Purchase H. F.
Published: August 2016

Chiefly, perhaps, owing to the increase in the average size of our industrial or other organizations and to the increased facilities for carrying out the work by punched-card and other office machinery, there has of recent years been an increase in the country generally in the use of a number of organizational or management techniques of an analytical or statistical character. The tendency is more marked in America than in Britain, but even here we find an increased use of such techniques as ‘Market Research’, ‘Sales Forecast’, ‘Cost Analysis’, etc.

The more this type of statistical analysis finds favour, the greater will be the demand for increased statistical data relating to the economy of the country or of its social structure. Mr John Ryan, Vice-Chairman of the Metal Box Company Ltd, made this the main subject of his Alfred Watson Memorial Lecture to the Institute of Actuaries on 24 March 1952.
Operational Research
Authors: Eddison R. T.
Published: August 2016

A brief, introductory talk on a subject, such as this, will naturally be expected to start with a definition. In this, I must frankly admit to some difficulty, as I do not know of any really satisfactory definition of operational research. This, however, is nothing to be abashed at. It is usually easy enough to be clear about a field of study when you are in the centre of it; the boundaries, however, are commonly diffuse—and it is with boundaries that definitions are concerned. This difficulty of precise definition can be found even with quite well-established fields such as physics or, dare I suggest, the actuarial profession.

I shall therefore be content to quote a phrase which is commonly applied to operational research, really more a description than a definition, and shall then try to expand and explain the salient points incorporated in it.
The Demographic Situation in the United States of America and In England and Wales
Authors: Thomas C. J.
Published: August 2016

The present is a particularly appropriate time to embark on a comparison of the demographic situation in the United States of America and that in England and Wales. P. K. Whelpton's study,Cohort Fertility: Native White Women in the United States, and the Report on the Family Census of 1946 conducted under the auspices of the Royal Commission on Population, have recently been published. These two works, one American and the other British, deserve careful study. This paper is designed mainly to make a broad comparison of the populations of the two countries and to provide a background for readers of Whelpton's book and of the Family Census Report.

The author wishes to acknowledge the ready assistance he received, on all occasions, from officials of the U.S. National Office of Vital Statistics and of the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Life Assurance in Australia
Authors: Drybrough D.
Published: August 2016

This paper attempts to give a sketch of the history and present practice of life assurance in Australia. It is not unnatural that its earliest beginnings should have been based on principles and methods which had already been developed and proved in this country. There are still many similarities, but differences have arisen in the new environment, and an examination of these differences may be of interest to members of the Society.

Little more than 100 years ago the population of the colony of New South Wales, which then included the present territories of Queensland and Victoria, was only about 250,000, yet a few provident pioneers had already formed a Mutual Society to transact life assurance. They had been appalled by the plight of the families of the early settlers who died before they had time, by other means, to make provision for their dependants.

The development of this Society was at first very slow, but it had the good fortune to have no death claims during its first three years, nor did they exceed £2500 in any of the first ten years. It was not until the introduction of the canvassing system, with the appointment of the first full-time agent in 1860, that there was any appreciable expansion. To-day that Society is the largest mutual life office in the British Commonwealth with assets of £300 millions.
The Population of the British Caribbean
Authors: Stewart C. M.
Published: August 2016

At the meeting of the Institute of Actuaries on 26 March 1956, it was brought out very clearly that the population problem for the world in general is very different from anything within the present experience of this country. In many areas the population is already outstripping the capacity for food production, and the rate of population increase, consequent upon improving mortality, gives cause for fears about the future.

One of the areas where this problem is becoming acute is the British Caribbean, where the island territories are already thickly populated, and there is no prospect that the rapidly increasing population can be adequately provided for. Lord Simon of Wythenshawe illustrated this very effectively in his 1954 report on the Population and Resources of Barbados. The report was printed privately, but the paper presented to the Institute described the position.
The Mechanics of Bonus Distribution. The use of Punched-Card Equipment
Authors: Leighton J. S.
Published: August 2016

The purpose of this paper is to consider some of the practical problems arising from the application of punched cards to one particular aspect of Life Office work, namely the work connected with bonus distribution in Ordinary Branch business.

No attempt has been made to describe the punched-card equipment itself, since this was fully dealt with in the paper submitted to the Institute in 1948 by N. E. Coe, K. J. Hedley andL. H. Longley-Cook; this paper also contained a comprehensive survey of the application of punched cards to Life Office work, including brief references to their use in connexion with bonus distribution.
The Taxation of the Annuity Fund
Authors: Clutterbuck R. B.
Published: August 2016

In 1952 the Statutes relating to income tax were gathered together into one consolidating Statute, the Income Tax Act, 1952 and the whole system of taxation of a life office is laid down in a few sections of this Act. The position has been modified by the passing of the Finance Act, 1956, but the effect of this will be considered in the latter part of these notes. A proper understanding of the relevant sections of the 1952 Act necessitates some knowledge of the fundamental principles of income tax in general as laid down in the Act. As it is the object of these notes to try to deduce as clearly and logically as possible from the Act how a life office is taxed with special reference to its annuity fund, it will therefore be desirable to refer briefly to some of these general principles.

Income is charged to tax in one of two ways, viz. by deduction of tax at the source by the payer of the income or by direct assessment on the recipient under one or other of the five Schedules A, B, C, D and E, enumerated in Section 1 of the Act.
Administration Problems of Insured Pension Schemes.
Authors: Morling A. W.
Published: August 2016

The subject of this paper and its companion paper dealing with privately administered schemes has received only scant attention in our discussions, although it is of great importance to employers who have pension schemes. It is hoped to promote a discussion on the administrative problems which arise from time to time in schemes and to that end those which have arisen in the assured schemes described in this paper are set out later.
A Simple Modification of the Binomial Distribution
Authors: Dharmadhikari S. W.
Published: August 2016

Given any probability distribution, new distributions can be derived from it by assuming its parameters to follow some specific probability distributions. A simple example of this process is provided by the Poisson distribution

P(r∣λ) =e-λλr/r! (r= o, 1, 2, …).

If the parameterλis assumed to follow the Pearson's Type III law

then the probability ofrsuccesses is obtained as
Some Notes on Fixed-Interest Investment.
Authors: Jamieson A. T.
Published: August 2016

Since the 1939–45 war, successive Governments have attempted by various political and ideological processes to provide this country with built-in prosperity combined with almost complete security. The measure of their success has been the reduction in the risks that attend economic enterprises of every type and the concomitant increase in the security of the incomes arising from them. No doubt from the standpoint of the owners of these incomes this has been exceedingly beneficial, but the reverse of the coin shows a progressively increasing distaste for incomes which are limited or reduced by further provisions of security and priority.
Analysis of Fertility in England and Wales by Position in Family.
Authors: Ford J. R. , Stewart C. M.
Published: August 2016

1. During the early 1950's the annual numbers of births in England and Wales varied little from an average of 675,000, but since then there has been a marked rise and in 1960 no fewer than 783,000 births were registered. This steep increase was unforeseen in official population projections, including the range of projections published by the Royal Commission on Population, and is likely to have serious repercussions in some quarters. For example, it will in due course result in an increase in the numbers of children of school age to well above the numbers on which plans for school building and teacher training were based.

2. In a paper presented to the Society a year ago (J.S.S.16, 85) the authors showed that the increase in births was attributable in part to an increase in marriage rates and in part to an increase in fertility rates, but the latest data available were those relating to 1957 when there were 723,000 births. No explanation could be offered for the further increase and, in deciding upon the number of births to be assumed in the early years of the projection contained in the paper, it was assumed arbitrarily that the numbers would decline from 750,000 in 1959 to 710,000 in 1963, the latter being the number calculated on the marriage and fertility bases thought suitable for the long-term projection.
A Note on Restricted Selections
Authors: Bizley M. T. L.
Published: August 2016

In a recent note (Bizley, 1960) the writer described a device which simplifies the solution of certain derangement problems. The present note explains and illustrates another device in combinatorial work (and hence in probability) having potentialities that do not seem to be well known. It is useful in tackling problems concerned with the choice of objects from an array when restrictions are placed upon the relative positions of those to be chosen, and it has applications to runs of consecutive events.
Some Practical Aspects of Mortgage Lending.
Authors: Spittal R. W.
Published: August 2016

1. A mortgage is defined as ‘a conditional conveyance of, or lien upon, land or other property as security for the performance of some condition, as the payment of money, becoming void on the performance of the condition’.

2. The emphasis is on ‘the performance of some condition’, and it is with this aspect that the lender is mainly concerned. The ‘payment of money’ will include interest on the amount advanced and repayment of principal by an agreed method—the latter by paying the premiums on a suitable policy, where the majority of new life office mortgages are concerned.
The Common Market.
Authors: Moss D. G. A. , Wood S. F.
Published: August 2016

The treaty was signed by France, Belgium, Holland, Luxemburg, Italy and West Germany on 25 March 1957, and came into effect on 1 January 1958. The following is a summary of some of the relevant provisions of the Treaty. Since the Treaty is very long and complex it is inevitable that a short summary will appear to be incomplete and, in many respects, drastic and uncompromising. We think, however, that what is more important than a complete knowledge of the Treaty is the spirit which has prevailed throughout the negotiations and carrying out of the Treaty so far. It is essential to feel and understand this spirit of goodwill, fellowship and determination to succeed in order to tackle successfully the problems before us.
Permanent Sickness Insurance.
Authors: Bond D. J.
Published: August 2016

Permanent sickness insurance was last discussed by this Society in 1952 when K. Medin submitted a paper on some of the theoretical aspects relating to this class of business (J.S.S.11, 76). At that time only a handful of offices transacted this insurance in this country and of these some did not seem to actively pursue the business. Since then its value, both in conjunction with a life assurance policy and as a separate contract, has become far more widely recognized and I therefore hope that a brief look at the practical considerations involved may be of general interest.

The name ‘permanent sickness insurance’ is possibly misleading. The insurance provides an income during total incapacity, terminating at an age chosen by the insured when the insurance is effected. It cannot be cancelled by the office solely on the grounds of an adverse claims experience. Accidents, provided they are not deliberately self-inflicted or excluded specifically by the policy conditions, are covered.
The Education of the Actuary.
Authors: Haycocks H. W.
Published: August 2016

I have chosen the word ‘Education’ rather than ‘Training’ so that discussion can wander as far afield as possible; for example: school, university, Actuarial Tuition Service, office, post-qualification education and training of various kinds. The experienced actuary is seldom a narrow specialist; the ambition of most young actuaries is to become a manager of some kind or another and this work involves basic disciplines and skills other than those covered by the examination syllabus.

Menzler's bookThe First Fifty Yearswill give the reader a good idea of the plight of the actuarial student during the 1920s. There was only one good text-book, that on life contingencies. There were other books that were helpful but they could hardly be classed as very suitable for the beginner. The only official classes were the oral classes in London. A provincial student had either to persuade an official tutor to correct test papers for him, or obtain the services of some other actuary; for example, classes were organized at the Prudential Assurance Company and the tutors were prepared to let other students have the test papers and any notes that were issued.
Statistical Background for the Planning of Extensions to existing Underground Railway Networks
Authors: Lloyd F. J.
Published: August 2016

Both the Royal Statistical Society and the Institute of Actuaries are interested in the collection and analysis of data and the use of the results for forecasting possible future trends. This paper deals with future traffic estimates of the number of passengers likely to use new underground railway facilities and the likely effect on the existing underground railway networks and other methods of transport, both public and private. It does not deal with the future planning of main line railway suburban services; nor does it deal with the civil engineering and operational problems of construction, although, of course, the capital cost of construction for a new tube and the capital cost of rolling stock have to be taken into account in considering the financial prospect of any new schemes.
Do Investment Theories Really Help?
Authors: Hey G. B.
Published: August 2016

Last year the Manchester Actuarial Society asked me to speak to it on my experience before I entered the profession, with particular reference to investments. This invitation caused me to review my experience over about twenty years in the Trustee Department of a Bank in supervising a large number of miscellaneous portfolios ranging from quite small ones to substantial pensions funds. The general conclusion which I reached was that investment theories generally were surprisingly little help. This was a conclusion which was rather depressing and I invited the Society to do their best to prove me wrong, adding that for once in a way the speaker would be only too pleased if someone did just that.

Before committing myself to writing the present paper, I awaited that by Messrs Weaver and Hall given to the Institute earlier this year, and the discussion on it, as I hoped that I would find in either one or the other some of the answers to the fundamental questions which were troubling me. I regret to say that whilst I am not in any way criticizing the computer method, I find that these fundamental difficulties still persist.
The Work of the Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau
Authors: Barnett H. A. R. , Hayward R. E.
Published: August 2016

It is difficult to say exactly when the Continuous Mortality Investigation began, beyond saying that the first report of the Committee was on the experience of assured lives in 1924–29. There are, however, some earlier developments which are worth following, although it is still difficult to know where to start recording the process of evolution.

If we start in the Institute of ActuariesYear Bookwe find that the Bureau was established soon after the 1914–18 war. However, in the Presidential Address of the late W. P. Phelps published inJ.I.A.54 there was a reference to a decision having been taken by the Institute and the Faculty in 1912–13, and a perusal of various Minutes of the Institute Council during the period immediately prior to the 1914–18 war yields much information. But perhaps we should start even earlier than that.
Friendly Societies
Authors: Trott K. F.
Published: August 2016

1.1. A longer title to this paper might be ‘Reflections of a Consulting Actuary on his professional relationship with Friendly Societies’. The term ‘Friendly Society’ is defined by law, but from the actuary's point of view it can be divided into a range of organizations, summarized as follows:

(a) Large Collecting Societies with assets exceeding £1 million. Many of these Societies operate on a national basis.

(b) Medium to small Collecting Societies. Most of these Societies serve a fairly localized area, and some are very small, being linked to churches to provide for burial expenses.

(c) The large Friendly Societies known as Affiliated Orders which have a large number of branches.

(d) The smaller Affiliated Orders with branches.

(e) Large Friendly Societies with assets exceeding £1 million.

(f)The smaller Friendly Societies with assets of less than £1 million including many with assets of less than £500,000.
Multiplying at Compound Interest
Authors: Bizley M. T. L.
Published: August 2016

The purpose of this Note is to provide easily remembered rules for finding approximately the time required for money to multiply itself by any whole number up to 12, and by certain larger numbers, at a given rate of interest. The rules hold good for rates of interest up to about 100% per period. For ease of reference they are summarized at the end of the Note.

It may well be asked why anyone should want to memorize such rules when reference to tables of compound interest, or calculation by logarithms, would give the results very easily. One answer is that in a time of increasing wage and salary levels it is important for the actuary to be able to point out at once the practical effect of any proposed assumption as to future rates of increase. Such information is often needed at a meeting, where the overt or surreptitious consultation of a book of tables would not enhance his reputation.
Orientation of corals and stromatoporoids in some Pleistocene, Devonian, and Silurian reef facies
Authors: Hodges Lance T. , Roth Ariel A.
Published: August 2016

A quantitative study was made of the orientation of corals and stromatoporoids in reef core, flank, and interreef rocks representing three geological periods at eight sites, including the Florida Keys (Pleistocene), Ridgemount, Ontario (Devonian), and Pekin, New York, Maumee and Rockford, Ohio, and Bluffton and Delphi, Indiana (Silurian). Orientation, width, and height were measured for each fossil as seen in outcrop.

Fossils in Pleistocene and Silurian reef core facies have pronounced upward orientation, suggesting that most fossils are in growth location, or that the reefs were moved to their present location without appreciable tilting. Silurian distal flank facies have approximately random coral orientations, while the proximal (near-core) Silurian flank facies at Rockford has coral orientations with some upward bias. Coral width is greater than or equal to coral height (on outcrop) for 79% of the corals at all flank sites, and for 80% of the corals at the interreef site, an indicator of transport when taken with orientation data. This study permits reef facies differentiation and illustrates that fossil orientation is a useful technique for studying reefs.
Jujuyaspisand associated trilobites from the Mungok Formation (Lower Ordovician), Yongwol, Korea
Authors: Kim Dong Hee , Choi Duck K.
Published: August 2016

The trilobite genusJujuyaspisKobayashi, 1936, an index fossil of earliest Ordovician age, is recorded from theYosimuraspisZone of the Mungok Formation (Lower Ordovician) for the first time in Korea. TheYosimuraspisZone comprisesYosimuraspis vulgarisKobayashi, 1960;Jujuyaspis sinensisZhouinChen et al., 1980;Elkanaspis jilinensisQianinChen et al 1985; and pilekid genus and species indeterminate. Closely comparable faunas to theYosimuraspisZone are well represented in North China. The occurrence ofJujuyaspisallows the correlation of theYosimuraspisZone with the earliest Ordovician faunas of North America, South America, and Scandinavia, and suggests that the Cambrian-Ordovician boundary in Korea be placed at the base of theYosimuraspisZone.
Evaluation of corallite size as a criterion for species discrimination in favositids
Authors: Lee D. J. , Noble J. P. A.
Published: August 2016

Of all the morphologic characters used in favositid taxonomy, corallite size has most frequently been given more weight than others because of its relative ease of measurement and because it has been generally believed to be less variable. This study evaluates the reliability of corallite size as a criterion by a statistical treatment of several populations of favositids in the Upper Silurian West Point Reef Complex in Gaspé, Québec. Calculation of corallite cross-sectional area was made feasible by computer-based image analysis which provides a quick and accurate measure of size. The present study shows that the mean of the largest 10 percent corallite areas in mature parts of colonies with a minimum sample size of 100 corallites per cross section is the best approximation available of mean adult corallite size.

It is suggested that intraspecific variability of corallite size is often too large for this character to be used in practice, probably due to phenotypic plasticity. The same may be true of most other morphologic characters. In some cases, however, one or two characters remain invariate within a species and can be used diagnostically. The same characters may be extremely variable in other species.
Megalosia, a new strophalosiid (Brachiopoda) genus from the Late Permian Nisal Member, Manang District, Nepal
Authors: Waterhouse J. B.
Published: August 2016

A new strophalosiid,Megalosia chuluensisn. gen. and sp., from the Nisal Member, Senja Formation, in the Manang district north of Mt. Annapurna, north-central Nepal, is of early Dorashamian or Changhsingian (Late Permian) age.Wyndhamia circularisChang, from slightly older faunas of south Tibet, might be congeneric.
New occurrences of color patterns in Devonian articulate brachiopods
Authors: Blodgett Robert B. , Boucot A. J. , Koch William F.
Published: August 2016

Significant new occurrences of Devonian articulate brachiopods retaining color patterns includingStringocephalus burtiniDefrance from the Givetian of southern England with both concentric and radial bands, an undetermined stringocephalid brachiopod with concentric bands from the Givetian of the western Brooks Range, Alaska,Beachiacf.B. thunii(Clarke) from the mid-Early Devonian Oriskany Sandstone of Schoharie, New York, with a prominent pair of radial color bands, andAthyris vittataHall from the early Givetian Ferron Point Formation of Michigan with numerous radial color bands are illustrated. The presence of preserved color patterns is documented for the first time in members of the family Stringocephalidae King and in the family Athyrididae McCoy.
A new species of Pulvinites (Mollusca: Bivalvia) from the upper Paleocene Paspotansa Member of the Aquia Formation in Virginia
Authors: Ward Lauck W. , Waller Thomas R.
Published: August 2016

Pulvinites lawrencei n. sp. is described from the upper Paleocene (Landenian Stage) Paspotansa Member of the Aquia Formation in Stafford County, Virginia. This is the first report of a member of the pteriacean family Pulvinitidae in the Tertiary on either side of the Atlantic, the only other post-Mesozoic records of Pulvinites being in the Paleocene of California and the present-day Pacific off southeast Australia. The stratigraphic setting and co-occurring molluscan assemblage of the new species indicate shallow-shelf, open-marine conditions with near normal salinities.
Semitubina yukonensis new species, first occurrence of this biogeographically distinctive Old World Realm gastropod genus in the Lower Devonian of the western hemisphere
Authors: Blodgett Robert B. , Frýda Jiří , Lenz Alfred C.
Published: August 2016

Despite the rapidly expanding knowledge of Lower Devonian brachiopod faunas of the Western Cordillera of Canada (Lenz, 1976, 1977a, 1977b, 1982; Ludvigsen, 1970; Perry, 1984; Perry and Lenz, 1978; Perry et al., 1974, 1981), equivalent data on coeval gastropod faunas from this region are non-existent; to date, no publications have appeared in which gastropods have been described. Blodgett et al. (1988, table 1) provided faunal lists for two Lower Devonian localities in Western Canada: 1) Lochkovian-Emsian age collections from the Mackenzie Mountains, Northwest Territories, collected by the late D. G. Perry as part of his Ph.D. dissertation (Perry, 1984); and 2) an early Emsian collection from the Mt. Lloyd George area, British Columbia. We are currently examining the gastropod material recovered by A. C. Lenz from his richly diverse collections in the Royal Creek area, Yukon Territory, equivalent in age to those gathered by D. G. Perry from the Mackenzie Mountains. This note is the first of several papers focused on these paleobiogeographically significant faunas, and it is our desire to ultimately make clear the character of this Early Devonian province, which appears to include strata of British Columbia, Yukon and Northwest Territories, as well as the non-accreted portion of adjacent east-central Alaska.
Sciadiocrinus, convergence on the family Pirasocrinidae (Crinoidea: Echinodermata)
Authors: Lewis Ronald D. , Strimple Harrell L.
Published: August 2016

Sciadiocrinus Moore and Plummer is synonymized with Schistocrinus Moore and Plummer, with the name Sciadiocrinus retained by the Law of Priority. This synonymy is based on a reexamination of the type material, study of a previously undescribed ontogenetic sequence in S. tegillum Strimple and Moore, and close inspection of separate radial plates and anal-sac spines. The holotype specimen of the type species of Sciadiocrinus was incorrectly illustrated in the original description of the genus, and appears to be immature. The basal plates of this specimen are shown to be separated from each other by the junction of the radial plates with the infrabasals—a principal character in the original concept of Schistocrinus. The Sciadiocrinus tegillum hypodigm now includes specimens which also have relatively large radial–infrabasal sutures as well as individuals with little or no contact between these plates. Examination of this collection and previously described material shows that mode of arm branching, details of radial-plate articular facets, and some features of the anal-sac spines are also equivalent in the two genera.

Sciadiocrinus, presently classified in the family Pirasocrinidae, is distinct from all known pirasocrinid taxa in a number of morphological characters. We believe the genus should be removed from the Pirasocrinidae, and recommend its assignment to the family Anobasicrinidae based primarily on similarities in arm structure. The remarkable convergence between Sciadiocrinus and the Pirasocrinidae emphasizes the adaptive significance of the spinose, umbrella-like anal-sac roof, which apparently served as a deterrent to predators.
Wenlockian (Silurian) conodont biostratigraphy, depositional environments, and depositional history along the eastern flank of the Cincinnati Arch in southern Ohio
Authors: Kleffner Mark A.
Published: August 2016

Representatives of 12 conodont species, including Oulodus equirectus n. sp., have been recovered from the Silurian Lilley Formation, Lilley–Peebles transition unit, and Peebles Dolomite at six localities in southern Ohio. The Lilley, Lilley–Peebles transition unit, and Peebles belong in the Kockelella ranuliformis–K. amsdeni to Ozarkodina? crassa Chronozone and are late early to middle Wenlockian in age.

The Lilley is conformable and transitional with the underlying Bisher Formation and overlying Peebles. The unconformity between the upper Niagaran Peebles and overlying lower Salinan Greenfield Dolomite represents middle Wenlockian to late Ludlovian or early Pridolian time.

The Lilley, Lilley–Peebles transition unit, and Peebles were deposited in a gradually shoaling sea that was controlled by eustatic sea-level fall during the late early to middle Wenlockian. Uplift along the Cincinnati Arch, probably due to northward tilting of the arch, began during/after deposition of the Peebles in the middle Wenlockian. The combined effects of uplift and eustatic sea-level fall caused the sea to withdraw from southern Ohio. The Peebles was exposed and eroded prior to return of the sea to begin Greenfield deposition in the late Ludlovian or Pridolian (Ozarkodina remscheidensis Chronozone).
A new Middle Cambrian hexactinellid, Ratcliffespongia wheeleri, from western Utah, and skeletal structure of Ratcliffespongia
Authors: Rigby J. Keith , Church Stephen B.
Published: August 2016

A single specimen of Ratcliffespongia wheeleri n. sp. from the upper part of the Middle Cambrian Wheeler Shale in the Drum Mountains of western Utah shows two distinct skeletal layers in the limonite-replaced fragment. The probable inner layer has large, circular to elliptical parietal gaps, some of which are aligned horizontally(?); gaps are outlined by long rays of hexactine-based spicules in irregular orientation and spacing. The probable outer layer has several ranks of stauracts in regular reticulation and ranking, all at approximately 45 degrees to the probably horizontal direction. The specimen is part of a probably shallow turbidite-transported assemblage from the margin of the House Range embayment.