bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Do Regional Price Levels Converge?
Authors: Dreger Christian , Kosfeld Reinhold
Published: April 2016

We investigate price level convergence on the base of regional data for 439 German districts. Prices refer to the overall consumer price index as well as to the index without housing prices. To increase the efficiency of the testing framework, the analysis is based on panel unit root tests. First and second generation tests are applied. They indicate a lack of regional price convergence, as the null hypothesis of a unit root is usually not rejected. The second generation tests reveal that the source of the unit root is likely common for all regions. The results are very similar for the overall regional price level and the measure without housing prices, and for the Western and Eastern part of the German economy. The elimination of housing prices is not sufficient to obtain a price index where tradables dominate. One rationale of our findings is the persistent west-east divide in consumer prices. A second argument is related to the persistence of the price gradient between urban and rural regions.
The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis
Authors: Tenhofen Jörn , Wolff Guntram B. , Heppke-Falk Kirsten H.
Published: April 2016

We investigate the effects of fiscal policy shocks on the German economy extending the SVAR approach of Blanchard and Perotti (2002). Direct government expenditure shocks are found to increase output and private consumption on impact. The output multiplier is smaller than one and is falling rather quickly reaching zero after 3 years. Government operating expenditure has size able positive effects on output, in the long run in particular due to public capital formation. Compensation of public employees is not effective in stimulating the economy.Government net revenue shocks do not affect output significantly. Indirect taxes have little effects, while direct taxes lower output significantly. Overall, the effects of fiscal policy are short-lived with the exception of public investment increases.
Herdenverhalten von Wechselkursprognostikern? / Herd Behavior of Exchange Rate Forecasters?
Authors: Pierdzioch Christian , Stadtmann Georg
Published: April 2016

Exchange rates have been found to be more volatile than underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. Researchers have argued that the empirically observed high exchange-rate volatility may result from herd behavior of foreign-exchange traders and forecasters. We sketch a standard model that illustrates that herd behavior of foreign-exchange-rate forecasters may be rational. We then use survey data to test for herd behavior of forecasters. Our results suggest that exchange-rate-forecasters anti-herd and “lean against the wind” when forecasting exchange rates.
Housing Prices in Tokyo: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat Sales Measures
Authors: Shimizu Chihiro , Nishimura Kiyohiko G. , Watanabe Tsutomu
Published: April 2016

Do indexes of house prices behave differently depending on the estimation method? If so, to what extent? To address these questions, we use a unique dataset that we compiled from individual listings in a widely circulated real estate advertisement magazine. The dataset contains more than 470,000 listings of housing prices between 1986 and 2008, including the period of the housing bubble and its burst.We find that there exists a substantial discrepancy in terms of turning points between hedonic and repeat sales indexes, even though the hedonic index is adjusted for structural changes and the repeat sales index is adjusted in the way Case and Shiller suggested. Specifically, the repeat sales measure signals turning points later than the hedonic measure: for example, the hedonic measure of condominium prices bottomed out at the beginning of 2002, while the corresponding repeat sales measure exhibits a reversal only in the spring of 2004. This discrepancy cannot be fully removed even if we adjust the repeat sales index for depreciation.
Regional Consumer Price Differences Within Germany
Authors: Linz Stefan
Published: April 2016

Every month the Consumer Price Index for Germany (CPI) provides comprehensive and detailed information regarding the price development over time. However, when differences in the price level across regions in Germany have to be analysed at a given point in time, sufficient information is not available at present.

Interest in regional consumer price data is shown by both scientists and policy makers. Currently, this information demand is not met as regional consumer prices or regional price comparisons are not provided by the Federal Statistical Office in Germany.

Data available from the German Consumer Price Index is suitable to follow the price development over time but cannot be used directly to compare price levels of different regions because the goods tracked may be different from region to region.

The article first considers the information demand and gives an overview of existing price data. Its main part refers to an empirical study which was conducted to check if existing Consumer Price Index data can be used to calculate regional consumer price comparisons by ex-post selecting comparable products.
Forecasting with Factor Models Estimated on Large Datasets: A Review of the Recent Literature and Evidence for German GDP
Authors: Schumacher Christian
Published: April 2016

This paper provides a review of the recent literature concerned with large factor models as forecast devices.We focus on factor models that account for mixed-frequency data and missing observations at the end of the sample. These are data irregularities applied forecasters have to cope with in real time. To extract the factors from the irregular data, special factor estimation techniques are necessary, expanding on the standard approaches for balanced data such as principal components (PC). The estimation methods include variants of the Expectation-Maximisation (EM) algorithm together with PC and factor estimation using state-space models. Given the estimated factors, forecasts can be obtained from bridge equations, mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) regressions and the Kalman smoother applied to fully-fledged factor models in state-space form. Empirical applications for German GDP growth often find that forecasts based on factor models are informative only a few months ahead compared to naive benchmarks. Thus, these models can be regarded as short-term forecast tools only. However, the factor models estimated on mixed-frequency data with missing observations tend to outperform factor models based on balanced data time-aggregated from high-frequency data.
Predictive Ability of Business Cycle Indicators under Test
Authors: Carstensen Kai , Wohlrabe Klaus , Ziegler Christina
Published: April 2016

In this paper we assess the information content of seven widely cited early indicators for the euro area with respect to forecasting area-wide industrial production. To this end, we use various tests that are designed to compare competing forecast models. In addition to the standard Diebold-Mariano test, we employ tests that account for specific problems typically encountered in forecast exercises. Specifically, we pay attention to nested model structures, we alleviate the problem of data snooping arising from multiple pairwise testing, and we analyze the structural stability in the relative forecast performance of one indicator compared to a benchmark model. Moreover, we consider loss functions that overweight forecast errors in booms and recessions to check-whether a specific indicator that appears to be a good choice on average is also preferable in times of economic stress. We find that none of this indicators uniformly dominates all its competitors. The optimal choice rather depends on the specific forecast situation and the loss function of the user. For 1-month forecasts the business climate indicator of the European Commission and the OECD composite leading indicator generally work well, for 6-month forecasts the OECD composite leading indicator performs very good by all criteria, and for 12-month forecasts the FAZ-Euro indicator published by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung is the only one that can beat the benchmark AR(1) model.
Forecasting Multivariate Volatility using the VARFIMA Model on Realized Covariance Cholesky Factors
Authors: Halbleib Roxana , Voev Valeri
Published: April 2016

This paper analyzes the forecast accuracy of the multivariate realized volatility model introduced by Chiriac and Voev (2010), subject to different degrees of model parametrization and economic evaluation criteria. Bymodelling the Cholesky factors of the covariance matrices, the model generates positive definite, but biased covariance forecasts. In this paper, we provide empirical evidence that parsimonious versions of the model generate the best covariance forecasts in the absence of bias correction. Moreover, we show by means of stochastic dominance tests that any risk averse investor, regardless of the type of utility function or return distribution, would be better-off from using this model than from using some standard approaches.
Ein-Euro-Jobs und reguläre Beschäftigung / One-Euro-Jobs and Regular Employment
Authors: Hohendanner Christian
Published: April 2016

The most widespread active labour market program in Germany is the so-called ‘One-Euro- Job’. Participants carry out social activities like caring for the elderly, city cleaning or environmental activities. The principal objective is to improve or maintain the employability of hard-to-place unemployed. However, there is a certain risk of within-firm substitution of regular employees by One-Euro-Job participants. The aim of the study is to identify such substitution effects in participating establishments. For this purpose I present some descriptive results from the survey ‘Experience with One-Euro-Jobs’. In a further step I use data from the IAB Establishment Panel 2004 to 2007 to identify substitution effects. To account for selectivity, I apply a difference-in-difference approach and propensity score matching. The empirical results indicate that regular employment relationships are not substituted by One-Euro-Jobs. This holds for West as well as for East Germany. However, the identification of within-firm substitution in the matching procedure requires that the program has no employment effect on the control group. Otherwise, substitution effects cannot be identified. For this reason, I provide evidence for potential displacement effects in the control group using a fixed-effects panel model. The results indicate that the control group is not affected by the program.
Wie hat sich die intragenerationale Umverteilung in der staatlichen Säule des Rentensystems verändert? / Has Intragenerational Redistribution Become Less Important in Pension Systems’ Public Pillar?
Authors: Krieger Tim , Traub Stefan
Published: April 2016

We empirically investigate whether the significance of intragenerational redistribution in the public pillar of pension systems in 20 OECD countries has changed systematically since the 1980s and whether international convergence of the degree of intragenerational redistribution can be observed. Intragenerational redistribution is measured by the Bismarckian factor which provides information about the relative importance of the earnings-benefit link in the pension formula (as compared to a flat-benefit Beveridgean pension system). Based on micro data from the Luxembourg Income Study, we find both, a trend towards (more Bismarckian) pension systems which obey the principle of participation equivalence and an international convergence of pension systems. The reduced variation of pension systems (sigma convergence) is driven by countries with a high degree of intragenerational redistribution catching up with more traditional Bismarckian countries (beta convergence). Both, fundamental pension reforms as Sweden’s and Italy’s move to „notional defined contribution‘‘ systems, and parametric reforms ranging from the removal of group-specific benefits to alternative calculations of contribution history, such as changing from „best years‘‘ to the entire worklife, underlie this development.
Which Parameters Determine the Development of Farm Numbers in Germany?
Authors: Röder Norbert , Kilian Stefan
Published: April 2016

In Germany, agricultural land use is very heterogeneous with respect to management orientation and productivity even at the local level. In addition, there is a wide variation in the reasons for farm exits. A review of the literature shows that a limited number of explanatory variables are generally accepted as being driving forces for farm exit rates. For the majority of indicators, ambiguous results are reported. In this paper, we analyse the determining factors of farm exit rates in Germany by examining municipalities from 1999 to 2007.We evaluate the robustness of the relationship between a set of explanatory variables and farm exit rates at different spatial scales.Our results indicate that the direction of impact of some variables (farm size, population density and the share of ruminants kept at low intensity as a fraction of the total ruminant stock) on farm exit rates is unambiguous throughout Germany. For the majority of the analysed explanatory variables, the strength of their impact on farm exit rates depends on their observation level or regional context.
Energy Use Patterns in German Industry: Evidence from Plant-level Data
Authors: Petrick Sebastian , Rehdanz Katrin , Wagner Ulrich J.
Published: April 2016

This paper analyzes energy use and CO2 emissions of more than 78 000 German industrial plants between 1995 and 2006. It is the first study to exploit exceptionally rich energy data that were recently matched to official micro datasets. We document that both energy use and intensity are highly dispersed across plants. When isolating the between-sector variation in energy intensity, there is a strong positive correlation with energy use, CO2 emissions and emission intensity. Yet there is no evidence that the scale of an industry determines its energy intensity. The dispersion of energy use across plants of a given sector, normalized by the median, is positively correlated with that of gross output, but not with the median energy use. Similarly, there is no evidence that the median energy intensity is correlated with the within- sector dispersion of energy intensity or with that of CO2 emissions. Looking at the fuel mix across sectors, we find that more energy intensive industries rely more on fuels other than electricity, although the variability among plants in those industries is extremely high. We also demonstrate that average fuel shares are sensitive to the skewness of the underlying distribution and recommend the use of median fuel shares for better representativeness.
One-eyed Epidemiologic Dummies at Nuclear Power Plants
Authors: Greiser Eberhard
Published: April 2016

Krämer and Arminger in a preceding article in this volume insinuated that in a meta-analysis on childhood leukaemia in the vicinity of nuclear power plants (NPP) in five countries gross methodological errors had led to falsified statistics. Major assumptions were a) arbitrary exclusion of publications with nil results, and b) publication bias in conduct of the meta-analysis. It is demonstrated that all appropriate publications providing data on incident cases of leukaemia and on the underlying population or rates of incidence with confidence intervals had been included. In addition it is demonstrated that all publications excluded from the meta-analysis either did not provide sufficient data on NPPs or cases of these publications had been already included into the meta-analysis from other publications.
Are Most Published Research Findings False?
Authors: Diekmann Andreas
Published: April 2016

In a provocative article Ioannidis (2005) argues that, in disciplines employing statistical tests of significance, professional journals report more wrong than true significant results. This short note sketches the argument and explores under what conditions the assertion holds. The “positive predictive value” (PPV) is lower than 1/2 if the a priori probability of the truth of a hypothesis is low. However, computation of the PPV includes only significant results. If both significant and non-significant results are taken into account the “total error ratio” (TER) will not exceed 1/2 provided no extremely large publication bias is present. Moreover, it is shown that theory-driven research may reduce the proportion of errors. Also, the role of replications is emphasized; replication studies of original research are so important because they drastically decrease the error ratio.
When Does the Second-Digit Benford’s Law-Test Signal an Election Fraud?
Authors: Shikano Susumu , Mack Verena
Published: April 2016

Detecting election fraud with a simple statistical method and minimal information makes the application of Benford’s Law quite promising for a wide range of researchers. Whilst its specific form, the Second-Digit Benford’s Law (2BL)-test, is increasingly applied to fraud suspected elections, concerns about the validity of its test results have been raised. One important caveat of this kind of research is that the 2BL-test has been applied mostly to fraud suspected elections. Therefore, this article will apply the test to the 2009 German Federal Parliamentary Election against which no serious allegation of fraud has been raised. Surprisingly, the test results indicate that there should be electoral fraud in a number of constituencies. These counter intuitive results might be due to the naive application of the 2BL-test which is based on the conventional χ2 distribution. If we use an alternative distribution based on simulated election data, the 2BL-test indicates no significant deviation. Using the simulated election data, we also identified under which circumstances the naive application of the 2BL-test is inappropriate. Accordingly, constituencies with homogeneous precincts and a specific range of vote counts tend to have a higher value for the 2BL statistic.
Difficulties Detecting Fraud? The Use of Benford’s Law on Regression Tables
Authors: Bauer Johannes , Groß Jochen
Published: April 2016

The occurrence of scientific fraud damages the credibility of science. An instrument to discover deceit was proposed with Benford’s law, a distribution which describes the probability of significant digits in many empirical observations. If Benford-distributed digits are expected and empirical observations deviate from this law, the difference yields evidence for fraud.

This article analyses the practicability and capability of the digit distribution to investigate scientific counterfeit. In our context, capability means that little data is required to discover forgery. Furthermore, we present a Benford-based method which is more effective in detecting deceit and can also be extended to several other fields of digit analysis. We also restrict this article to the research area of non-standardized regressions. The results reproduce and extend the finding that non-standardized regression coefficients follow Benford’s law. Moreover, the data show that investigating regressions from different subjects demands more observations and hence is less effective than investigating regressions from single persons. Consequently, the digit distribution can discover indications for fraud, but only if the percentage of forgery in the data is large. With a decreasing proportion of fabricated values, the number of required cases to detect a significant difference between real and fraudulent regressions rises. Under the condition that only few scientists forge results, the investigation method becomes ineffective and inapplicable.
Short- and Long-term Ex-Post Effects of Unemployment Insurance Sanctions
Authors: Hofmann Barbara
Published: April 2016

Unemployment insurance (UI) benefit sanctions in form of benefit reductions are intended to set an incentive to comply with job search requirements and to decrease moral hazard behaviour. However, sanctions might also affect the subsequent employment history. Empirical research on long-term effects is scarce. Using administrative data, we investigate short- and long-term effects of sanctions on the reemployment probability of individuals in West Germany who entered UI benefit receipt between April 2000 and March 2001. As outcomes we consider regular employment, other employment, and having dropped out of the registered labour market. By applying a matching approach that takes the timing of treatment into account, we identify the ex post effect of UI sanctions. According to our results, sanctions are effective in increasing the probability of regular employment for young sanctioned UI benefit recipients. Older women on average respond to a sanction by taking up jobs of lower quality. For both women and men, we find an increased number of months out of the official work force after a sanction.
Diskussionsbeitrag / Discussion. Paper Coin: Migration and Seigniorage within the Euro Area
Authors: Seitz Franz , Stoyan Dietrich , Tödter Karl-Heinz
Published: April 2016

The introduction of the euro coins in 2002 presented a unique opportunity to study the crossborder migration and the mixing process of coins in different euro-area countries. This note analyses how many euro coins flow from and into Germany and which composition of coins is to be expected in the long run. A simple model of coin migration is formulated and calibrated for Q1 coins. The ratio of German coins circulating in Germany is likely to settle around 50%if past growth of coin volumes continues. In contrast to banknotes, allocation of coin seigniorage depends on national coin issuance. Different national growth rates of coin volumes have important implications for coin seigniorage.
Literaturbeitrag / Review Paper. Leistungserstellung, Kreislaufgleichgewicht und das Geld
Authors: Helmstädter Ernst
Published: April 2016

Based on the original version of Stützel’s habilitation thesis, a so far neglected issue of circular flow equilibrium is considered: the microeconomic transactions during the production period of the neoclassical model of general equilibrium. The specific equilibrium conditions for the „transactions profiles‘‘ are analyzed given the institutional rules of Fisher’s Quantity Equation. The implications for the equilibrium with respect to Stützel’s notions of „lock-step with constant steps‘‘ and „buying lead with constant steps‘‘ are also derived.
Beating thy Neighbor: Derby Effects in German Professional Soccer
Authors: Bäker Agnes , Mechtel Mario , Vetter Karin
Published: April 2016

It is widely acknowledged that derbies between two teams from the same city or region catch more public attention than “normal” soccer matches. Terms such as “Old Firm” (Rangers vs. Celtic), “Merseyside” (Liverpool FC vs. Everton FC), “Superclásico” (Boca Juniors vs. River Plate), and “Revierderby” (Dortmund vs. Schalke) are well-known even to people outside their respective countries of origin. Using data from the German Bundesliga from 1999 to 2009, we test whether derbies differ from other soccer matches with respect to the number of goals scored by each team, match results, and referee evaluations. The results are very surprising given the enormous amount of public attention that derbies with their special character attract: we find that there are no significant differences between derbies and “normal” matches. Despite the importance of derbies for fans and the public, they turn out to be “normal” soccer matches in all other respects.
Gold, Silver, and Bronze: Determining National Success in Men’s and Women’s Summer Olympic Events
Authors: Leeds Eva Marikova , Leeds Michael A.
Published: April 2016

We add to the literature on Olympic performance by explicitly studying the determinants of women’s performance at the Games.We estimate separate models of medal production for men and women over the last four Summer Olympic Games. The production of medals is a function of capital, labor, and total factor productivity (TFP). We use real GDP per capita and population - two variables that appear in almost all Olympic studies - as proxies for capital and labor. Our measure of TFP is a vector of variables that captures a nation’s willingness and ability to marshal its resources to promote Olympic performance and variables that determine its willingness to support its women. Because the dependent variable is a count measure, we estimate the production function using a negative binomial framework. We find that the determinants of success by a nation’s women closely resemble the determinants for its men. We also show that some determinants of gold medal counts differ from the determinants of silver and bronze medals. Our findings suggest that nations can improve the medal performance of men and women by following policies that increase the political and economic participation of women.
Inner-Outer Lane Advantage in Olympic 1000 Meter Speed Skating
Authors: Kuper Gerard H. , Kamst Richard , Sierksma Gerard , Talsma Bertus G.
Published: April 2016

During the Olympic Games and the World Championships Single Distances the 1000m is skated by every skater only one time. However, there may be a difference in skating a 1000m race with a start in the inner and the outer lane that introduces an externality that introduces unfairness. We show that this difference indeed exists. For the period 2000-2009 we observe a statistically significant advantage of starting in the inner lane of 0.120 seconds for women. For male skater the difference between starting lanes is 0.030, but not significantly different from zero. In order to make the competition fair, we suggest that the 1000m should be skated twice.
Determinants of Digital Piracy: A Re-examination of Results
Authors: Mandel Philipp , Süssmuth Bernd
Published: April 2016

This paper empirically investigates determinants of digital piracy in Germany for several types of digitized products. To this end we rely on a survey comprising behavior and attitudes at the individual level. The sample matches some demographic characteristics of the German population with high-speed internet access with regard to gender and age composition. It also maps the share of foreign nationals in Germany. Self-selection in the drawing of our sample is assessed by a control experiment. In contrast to existing studies, we sharply discriminate between frequency and extent of pirating digital media. We find no significant gender difference in the propensity to pirate. However, male individuals are prone to pirate at a significantly larger scale.We attribute this finding to male individuals acting more frequently as hubs in the social prestige enhancing distribution of pirated media. It is particularly important in the light of the recent development of the distribution process from peer-to-peer online networks to offline forms of file swapping. Our findings are confirmed by recent piracy related crime statistics of the Federal Office of Criminal Investigation (Bundeskriminalamt).
Do Private Sector Forecasters Desire to Deviate From the German Council of Economic Experts?
Authors: Rülke Jan-Christoph
Published: April 2016

In this paper, we contrast more than 6,000 private sector forecasts to projections of the German Council of Economic Experts (Sachverständigenrat). Although the forecasts are submitted simultaneously, we find that the Council’s real economy forecasts, i. e. their growth, unemployment and fiscal forecasts have a higher forecast accuracy compared to the private sector forecasts. We also document that private sector forecasters deliberately place their real economy forecasts away from the Council’s projection. This strategic forecasting behavior explains why the private sector performs worse than the Council. Splitting the private sector in different groups reveals that the forecasts of banks compared to research institutes deviate more from the Council’s forecast.
Budgetbereinigung zwischen Kollektiv- und Selektivvertrag: ökonomische Aspekte aus wettbewerblicher Sicht / Selective Contracting and Collectively Financed Fund: The Way of Appropriate Adjustment
Authors: Zerth Jürgen , Daum Stefanie
Published: April 2016

The extraction of a selective contract from a collectively financed fund needs an appropriate method of adjustment. This is necessary as long as the fund guarantees basic benefits, irrespective of the contractual form of service provision. In this context externalities arise which may not be internalized by the partner of a selective contract.We look at externalities in the context of a collectively financed fund where insurers and health care providers can contract forms of managed care that need an adjustment scheme.We show that in a first-best static world, unique reimbursement schemes between collective and selective contracts are appropriate. From a dynamic perspective problems of externalities between collective and selective contracts increase due to the requirement of an enduring commitment scheme between the health care providers and the cost-payers. But some simple form of cost-sharing ideas in which the patient is also involved can help to achieve a pareto-optimal equilibrium. This commitment strategy will be easier to organise if the selective contract is connected with a process innovation. Altogether, the dynamic commitment strategy may only work if health care providers as well as cost-payers compete actively.
The Immigrant-Native Wage Gap in Germany
Authors: Aldashev Alisher , Gernandt Johannes , Thomsen Stephan L.
Published: April 2016

Immigrant-native wage differentials are observed in many countries, so in Germany. However, the available empirical literature for Germany defined the groups in consideration, immigrants and natives, by citizenship. This limits the explanatory power of the estimates since citizenship distinguishes foreigners and German nationals, but assigns naturalised immigrants (including the large group of ethnic Germans) to the latter group. Providing a more adequate definition based on the concept of origin we analyse the immigrant-native wage gap. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel Study,we decompose the wage gap between native Germans, foreigners, and naturalised immigrants, and consider further subgroups in the analysis. In the literature, time of residence has been proven to be a relevant determinant of immigrants’ wages. For the natives, time of residence is perfectly collinear with age, and unequal sets of variables have to be considered.We therefore suggest an extension of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition technique. Our results show a substantial gap in earnings for all immigrants’ groups compared to natives. Discarding immigrants who completed education abroad reduces much of the immigrants’ wage gap. Hence, educational attainment in Germany is an important component of economic integration of immigrants, and degrees obtained abroad are valued less.
Lassen sich CAPM, HCAPM und CCAPM durch konsumbasierte zeitvariable Parameterspezifikation rehabilitieren? / Can Time-varying Parameter Specification Based on Consumption Variables Rehabilitate CAPM, HCAPM and CCAPM?
Authors: Auer Benjamin R.
Published: April 2016

Using a new dataset for the German market, this article analyses whether modeling time-varying stochastic discount factor parameters in the CAPM of Sharpe (1964), the HCAPM of Jagannathan and Wang (1996) and the CCAPM of Lucas (1978) can help to explain the cross-section of book-to-market, size and industry portfolio returns. In addition to classic financial conditioning variables, we focus on modern consumption-based variables - the consumption surplus ratio of Campbell and Cochrane (1999), the consumption-wealth ratio of Lettau and Ludvigson (2001a) and the labour income to consumption ratio of Santos and Veronesi (2006). Our results show that (a) time-varying parameters can drastically increase the empirical fit of the models and that (b) a CAPM using the labour income to consumption ratio as a conditioning variable proves to be the best model specification.
Economic Trends and Cycles in Crime: A Study for England and Wales
Authors: Vujić Sunčica , Koopman Siem Jan , Commandeur J.F.
Published: April 2016

This paper models cyclical behaviour in property crime series (burglary and theft) in relation to the macroeconomic activity indicators in England and Wales in the period from 1955 to 2001. Using unobserved components (UC) time series models, univariate time series analysis suggests that recorded burglary (theft) data is subject to stochastic cycle processes with typical business cycle frequencies of approximately 5 and 10 years. In the multivariate UC time series framework, recorded burglary (theft) is simultaneously modelled in a trivariate model, together with unemployment and real GDP time series. We also estimate a five-variate model, where we simultaneously model burglary, theft, unemployment, real GDP, and police variables. Some interesting findings in these analyses are: (i) observed cyclical behaviour in recorded property crime is almost fully determined by the economic business cycles; (ii) explanatory variables such as sentence length, imprisonment and conviction rates affect the short-term dynamics more than the long-term dynamics; (iii) motivational and opportunity effects between macroeconomic and crime time series can be distinguished in our modelling framework.
Consumer Specialization and the Demand for Novelty: a Reconsideration of the Links and Implications for Studying Fashion Cycles in Tourism
Authors: Chai Andreas
Published: April 2016

How does the consumer’s predisposition to seek arousing new sensations affect their tendency to accumulate knowledge about consumption activities? Using recent insights about the dynamic interaction of learning mechanisms that are part of the individual’s genetic endowment, we argue that, contra Scitovsky (1976), the emergence of relatively convenient forms of entertainment may foster - rather than inhibit - the accumulation of consumer knowledge. Furthermore, because specialized consumers have a greater tendency to innovatively modify aspects of the consumption activity, we argue that this specialization process fundamentally affects the rate at which consumers become habituated to novelty. This represents an important way in which cognitive learning patterns interact with non-cognitive learning dynamics and it has consequences for understanding the direction and length of fashion cycles in recreational activities. In particular, we discuss how this perspective can be applied to studying tourism demand patterns and the ‘Destination Life Cycle’.
Sustainability of Public Debt in Germany – Historical Considerations and Time Series Evidence
Authors: Burret Heiko T. , Feld Lars P. , Köhler Ekkehard A.
Published: April 2016

We analyse German public finances against a theoretical background using a unique database, retrieved from multiple sources covering the period between 1850 and 2010.Multiple currency crises and force majeure offer anecdotal evidence contradicting the historical perception of Germany being the poster child of European public finance. Given these corresponding breaks in time series, the empirical analysis is conducted for the sub-periods 1872-1913 and 1950- 2010. In addition to anecdotal historical analysis, we conduct formal tests on fiscal sustainability, including tests on stationarity and cointegration and the estimation of Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). While we cannot reject the hypothesis that fiscal policy was sustainable in the period before the First World War, the tests allow for a rejection of the hypothesis of fiscal sustainability for the period from 1950 to 2010. This evidence leads to the conclusion that Germany’s public debt is in dire need of consolidation. Albeit constituting a much needed reform to this development, the incompleteness of the German debt brake and fiscal federalism will have to be addressed in the coming years, in order to ensure that fiscal consolidation actually takes place - for the sake of public debt sustainability.
From the Zollverein to the Economics of Regionalism
Authors: Feuerstein Switgard
Published: April 2016

The paper is a contribution to the special issue “150 years Journal of Economics and Statistics”. The starting point is a series of articles on the nature and the history of the German Zollverein by Gustav Fischer in the early volumes of the Journal. Both the perception of the Zollverein and the economics of preferential trade are traced over time. The focus is on the analogies between the Zollverein and the European Community and on the expansion of the Zollverein in view of the modern theory of sequencing in forming a trade bloc.
The Relevance of Census Results for a Modern Society
Authors: Egeler Roderich , Dinsenbacher Natalie , Kleber Birgit
Published: April 2016

Population censuses have been conducted for thousands of years and they are one of the bases of any official statistics. By giving a detailed overview of the structure of a country’s population at a specific point in time, they provide one of the most important parameters for political action.

In addition, in modern statistical systems, population censuses are the data basis for a variety of further statistical information, such as intercensal updates of the number of inhabitants. They provide the basis for the statistical fields which either describe the population or in which population data are integrated. Furthermore they allow drawing reliable population samples and performing qualified extrapolation of sample results.

This article focuses on the relevance of censuses in general and, more specifically, of the current 2011 Census in Germany. Following a historical overview in the first part of the article, the second part describes the various definitions of “population”, the relevance and issues of defining the survey unit and of operationalising concepts of variables. In the third part, some examples illustrate various areas that are relevant for statistics and social policy and for which the 2011 Census will provide information, while the fourth part provides an outlook on how the census can be developed further, both in terms of methodology and contents.
Celebrating 150 Years of Analyzing Fertility Trends in Germany
Authors: Kendzia Michael J. , Zimmermann Klaus F.
Published: April 2016

Ever since the very beginning of the Journal of Economics and Statistics population economics has featured prominently in the Journal. Fertility naturally plays an important role in population economics. However, the level of German fertility has decreased significantly from the 1900s. The paper documents and analyzes the long-termdevelopment trends.We identify three different explanatory approaches for the decline in fertility according to which the various articles of the Journal related to this area are categorized. The paper also investigates fertility studies published by the Journal since the beginning. It points out that several articles anticipated subsequent research directions in the area of population economics at an early stage. In addition, significant contributions were made to improve and develop existing knowledge and understanding. Thus, the Journal has helped to expand the research area of population economics.
Early Life Adversity and Children’s Competence Development: Evidence from the Mannheim Study of Children at Risk
Authors: Blomeyer Dorothea , Laucht Manfred , Coneus Katja , Pfeiffer Friedhelm
Published: April 2016

This paper investigates the role of early life adversity and home resources in terms of competence formation and school achievement based on data from an epidemiological cohort study following 364 children from birth to adolescence. Results indicate that organic and psychosocial risks present in early life as well as the socio-emotional home environment are significant predictors for the formation of competencies. Competencies acquired at preschool age predict achievement at school age. A counterfactual analysis is performed to assess trade-offs in the timing of interventions in the early life cycle.
Trust and Control at the Workplace
Authors: Grund Christian , Harbring Christine
Published: April 2016

Based on two representative samples of employees, the German Socio Economic Panel and the European Social Survey, we explore the relation between certain measures of control in employment relationships (i. e. working time regulations, use of performance appraisal systems, monitoring by supervisors, autonomy to organize the work) and individuals’ inclination to trust others. Trust is measured by the general trust question like in most other economic studies based on surveys. We find that strict working time regulations, monitoring and lack of autonomy - all indicators for control at the workplace - are negatively associated with trust. Monitoring also moderates the relation between the existence of a formal performance appraisal system and individuals’ trust.Moreover,we contribute to the literature on trust by gathering hints to other potential correlates of trust.
Dating Business Cycles in Historical Perspective: Evidence for Switzerland
Authors: Siliverstovs Boriss
Published: April 2016

In this study we suggest a chronology of the classical business cycle in Switzerland based on dating algorithms suggested in Artis et al. (2004) and Harding and Pagan (2002). A further contribution of our study is that we determine the sensitivity of the chronology with respect to the particular GDP vintage used. For this purpose we employ a real-time database that contains 59 vintages of GDP data starting from 1997Q4 and ending in 2012Q2. We show that major changes in identified phases of the classical business cycle in Switzerland can be well traced to several benchmark revisions to the national accounts. In the absence of benchmark revisions the vintage-to-vintage variation exerts a comparatively minor effect on identified phases of the classical business cycle.
Knowledge Protection Practices in Innovating SMEs
Authors: Thomä Jörg , Zimmermann Volker
Published: April 2016

This paper examines the use of innovation protection mechanisms in small and medium enterprises (SMEs). By starting from a knowledge-based view the aim is to achieve a better understanding of how the role perceived by innovating SMEs of patent protection and the long-term retention of qualified personnel relates to different company-specific factors. Moreover, the interplay between patents and employee retention and their mutual interdependencies with other appropriation methods such as secrecy or lead time advantages are explored. This is because different knowledge protection practices must not only separately provide barriers to imitation, but may also reinforce each other as complements. In several ways, the results provide insights into some of the appropriation strategies taken by smaller firms. For example, a staff-related appropriation strategy seems to be essential for many SMEs because of their informal mode of learning and innovation characterized by experience-based know-how with strong tacit elements. A relatively strong complementary relationship has been observed between employee retention and the use of lead time advantages. The paper concludes with a discussion of the implications for policy and research.
The Identification of Reporting Accuracies from Mirror Data
Authors: Cate Arie ten
Published: April 2016

Mirror data are observations of bilateral variables such as trade from one country to another, reported by both countries. The efficient estimation of a bilateral variable from its mirror data, for example when compiling consistent international trade statistics, requires information about the accuracy of the reporters. This can be obtained from the simultaneous estimation of the accuracy of multiple reporters, from all mirror data.

This estimation requires an identifying restriction. For example, in one of the proposed models this restriction prevents the model to be indifferent between (a) all reporters reporting correctly and (b) all reporters over-reporting with the same percentage.

Two models are presented. First, a model with country-specific mean reporting errors is discussed shortly. This model has been discussed elsewhere without a convincing solution of the identification problem. Such a solution is presented here, assuming symmetry.

Second, a model is presented with country specific reporting error variances, in the form of a generalized linear model (GLM). This model supplies the weights for the traditional method of optimally combining inconsistent data: weighted with the reciprocal of their error variance. Here also a symmetrical identifying restriction is used.

In this way, this paper paves the road for the production of harmonized statistics by international agencies.

A small data set on international trade is used as an illustration.
Literaturbeitrag / Review Book. Über die Natur und das Wesen des Geldes – J. H. von Thünens unveröffentlichtes Manuskript zur Geldtheorie / The Nature and the Essence of Money – J. H. von Thuenen’s unpublished Manuscript on Monetary Economics
Authors: Nellinger Ludwig
Published: April 2016

The economic works of Johann Heinrich von Thuenen include 1,000 unpublished pages of drafts and notes on the basis of which he prepared the second volume of his famous “Isolated State in Relation to Agriculture and Political Economy”. It’s bulk was not made accessible until today. The analysis of a 60 pages’ manuscript treating monetary questions and preparing his theory of capital and interest shows that the economic thoughts of Thuenen are much more far-reaching than presented in his published works. Diminishing returns of cash keeping in enterprises are the basic concept of his monetary analysis. Main results are an algebraic equation of exchange, the interaction between the monetary interest rate and the rate of return on real capital and finally a synthesis of an extended quantity theory and the production cost theory of money. “The Nature and Essence of Money” includes important elements of the development in monetary economics in the late nineteenth and the beginning twentieth century mainly influenced by contributions of Irving Fisher, Knut Wicksell and John Maynard Keynes.
Teilnahmeverweigerungen in Betriebsbefragungen / Unit-Nonresponse in Establishments Surveys
Authors: Janik Florian
Published: April 2016

The aim of this paper is to analyze unit-nonresponse for establishments surveyed for the first time in the IAB Establishment Panel. This is not only useful to understand nonresponse in this particular survey but to increase knowledge about nonresponse in business surveys overall. Therefore a theoretical framework is presented which helps to explain these processes in establishment surveys. To test this theory additional data from the federal employment agency about the establishments and data about the conducting interviewers is used. Empirical results mainly confirm the theoretical framework. If the respondent has the authority to provide relevant information and is able to give reliable answers to the questions with a justifiable amount of effort, participation is less frequently refused. Both aspects are highly correlated with establishment size and the complexity of the firm. It can also be shown that experienced and professional interviewers are more successful in recruiting firms to take part in the survey. The findings can be used to improve the study design in organizational surveys.
The Role of Extensive Margins of Exports in The Great Export Recovery in Germany, 2009/2010
Authors: Wagner Joachim
Published: April 2016

This paper contributes to the literature by documenting for the first time the contribution of adding (and dropping) goods and destination countries to the sharp increase in exports of goods in the German economy as a whole during the Great Export Recovery in 2009/2010. The empirical investigation finds that firms that exported in both 2009 and 2010 are much more important for the export dynamics than export starters and export stoppers. Firms that increased their exports (and that were the drivers of the export boom) exported on average more goods and to more destination countries in 2009 than firms that decreased their exports, and they increased both extensive margins of exports on average while firms with decreased exports reduced both the number of goods exported and the number of countries exported to.