bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Pipe Sizing of District Cooling Distribution Network Using Implicit Colebrook-White Equation
Authors: Augusto Gerardo L. ,   Gokongwei College of Engineering, De La Salle University, Culaba Alvin B. , Tanhueco Renan Ma T. ,   FLUIDNOVATION Research, Co.
Published: April 2016

An implicit solution of Colebrook-White equation was used in calculating the friction factor for commercial steel pipes using Newton-Raphson method with Reynolds number ranging from 4.0 × 103to 1.3 × 107. Initial value for iterative friction factor estimation was based on expanded form of Colebrook-White equation for larger values of Reynolds number with tolerance value of 1.0 × 10-8. Numerical results were compared with known explicit solutions and iterative procedure proposed by Lester in which, their mean difference, root-mean square deviation, mean relative error and correlation coefficient were evaluated. Correlation coefficients equal to unity and overall mean relative error of 4.821 × 10-8were achieved for all fifteen (15) pipe cases with nominal diameters ranging from 100 mm to 1,500 mm when compared with iterative solution suggested by Lester. Student’s t-test for paired data was also used which yielded a calculated t-value of -5.406 × 10-4. Combining the piping network design criteria with the logical structure of friction factor calculation determines the pipe size of distribution network and defines the boundaries of chilled-water velocities at different pressure drop limits as a function of commercial steel pipe diameter according to ANSI B36.1.
Slime Mold Inspired Swarm Robot System for Underwater Wireless Data Communication
Authors: Vicerra Ryan Rhay P. ,   De La Salle University, Dadios Elmer P.
Published: April 2016

Swarm robotics is a collection of mobile robots that displays swarm behavior. This paper presents a simulator of slime mold amoeba inspired swarm robot for underwater wireless communication system. The slime mold inspired robotic swarm is used to overcome the challenges of transmitting data in a large underwater environment. Underwater communication systems today are primarily acoustic technology and characterized by limited and distance dependent bandwidth, presence of multipath, and low speed of sound propagation. The robots navigate and seek the shortest path creating a virtual connection between the data transmitter and receiver similar to the foraging behavior of swarms. Each individual robot going back and forth from the transmitter to the receiver and vice-versa acts as a “physical” carrier of the data. Swarm robots navigate using swarm level intelligence based on the signal propagation technique used by slime mold amoeba aggregation using acoustics communication. The robot swarm system is developed, simulated and tested using the coded simulator. Using the slime mold inspired swarm robot system; the simulation successfully performed the data “foraging” scenario and showed the ability of the swarm to provide a virtual link in an underwater wireless communication network.
Finite-Time Consensus of Double-Integrator Multi-Agent Systems with Time-Varying Directed Topologies
Authors: Wang Fang ,   School of Information Science & Engineering, Central South University, Chen Xin , He Yong ,   School of Automation, China University of Geosciences
Published: April 2016

The finite-time consensus problem for double-integrator multi-agent systems (MASs) is studied using time-varying directed topologies. In detail, a distributed finite-time control protocol is designed to achieve the weighted average consensus on the basis of both relative position and relative velocity measurements by utilizing a homogeneous control technique. Then, on the basis of graph theory, homogeneity with dilation and LaSalle’s invariance principle, the designed finite-time consensus protocol ensures finite-time convergence to a consensus in the time-varying directed topologies without a global leader. Finally, some examples and simulation results are given to illustrate the effectiveness of the obtained theoretical results.
Adaptive Nonsingular Terminal Sliding Mode Control of 6-DOF Manipulator with Modified Switch Function
Authors: Cheng Cong ,   Beijing Institute of Technology, Lai Ru , Chen Zhen , Liu Xiangdong
Published: April 2016

This paper presents an adaptive nonsingular terminal sliding mode control algorithm with a modified switch function for a 6-DOF manipulator with unknown modeling errors and external disturbances. The finitetime convergence of the controller is analyzed using Lyapunov stability theory. The algorithm avoids singular problems and estimates the upper bound of system uncertainties. A modified switch function is used to achieve precise tracking and reduce chattering in control torque. Finally, the effectiveness of the control method is verified through simulation.
Research on Carbon-Monoxide Utilization Ratio in the Blast Furnace Based on Kolmogorov Entropy
Authors: Xiao Dengfeng ,   School of Information Science and Engineering, Central South University, An Jianqi , Wu Min , He Yong ,   School of Automation, China University of Geosciences
Published: April 2016

The accurate mastery of the Carbon-Monxide Utilization Ratio (CMUR) is a critical factor for reducing the energy consumption in the blast furnace (BF). Previous research of the CMUR focused on the mechanism model in which the CMUR is usually regarded as a random variable, and its analysis and prediction is seldom discussed. In this paper, a method for chaotic identifiability analysis by calculating Kolmogorov entropy is presented to study CMUR. The time series data of CMUR are selected from the two representative BFs as the example, and their Kolmogorov entropies are obtained based on the correlation integral algorithm. The results show that the value of the Kolmogorov entropy is finite and positive, which indicates the existence of chaos in the sample time series of the two BFs, and that the development process of the CMUR is corroborated to be a chaotic process. Furthermore, the predicted time scale of the CMUR development process is estimated by the obtained Kolmogorov entropy value.
PSO-SVR-Based Resource Demand Prediction in Cloud Computing
Authors: Zhu Zhengfa ,   School of Information Science and Engineering, Central South University, Peng Jun , Zhou Zhuofu , Zhang Xiaoyong , Huang Zhiwu
Published: April 2016

The essential of cloud computing is to offer elastic resources (such as CPU, memory, storage, and more) allocation to cloud customers on demand, and the resources are allocated dynamically in a pay-as-you-go fashion. In order to achieve this goal automatically while guaranteeing the performance of the application deployed in the cloud, a proactive resource scaling strategy is necessary for cloud providers. In this paper, we present an optimal resource usage prediction approach based on Support Vector Regression (SVR) that predicts resource demands from users in the near future. In order to improve the forecasting accuracy, Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is integrated in the model selection process for SVR to optimize the parameters of the model. Experiment results show that the prediction model achieves high accuracy and outperforms traditional SVR and Linear Regression (LR).
Trends in Disaster Management Measures in Post World War II in Japan
Authors: Murakami Suminao ,   Laboratory of Urban Safety Planning, 2-032 Demeure Gobancho, 12 Gobancho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-0076, Japan
Published: April 2016

This review presents historical transformation on urban planning approaches in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Urban areas in Japan have always been threated by urban conflagrations due to the high number of wooden structures. The Tokyo metropolitan area which was previously known as Edo until the Meiji Revolution in 1864. Dramatic changes in power was successful but few urban structure reformation occurred, and Tokyo was damaged by urban conflagrations in the Meiji, Taisho, and Showa Eras. The fervent wishes of Japanese urban planners centered on construction of fireproof urban areas. Such wishes accounted for little in actual policy, however, as witnessed to by the failure of Tokyo officials to construct fireproof urban architectures following the massive destruction left by World War II. In September 1959, the Ise-Wan (Ise Bay) Typhoon caused tremendous damage and left over 5,000 dead. As measures against such disasters, the Japanese government enacted the Disaster Countermeasures Basic Act in 1961. Howevers, measure against Earthquake-induced disasters were yet far from sufficient although Japan experienced hit by the Great Kanto Earthquake of 1923. In 1964, the Niigata Earthquake clearly demonstrated modern Niigata City's vulnerability to earthquakes despite its facilities for the National Sports Festival were equipped with modern technology, all of these facilities were destroyed. Reflecting such disasters, reexamination of measure against earthquake disaster began at coastal cities of Japan, which were constructed in post war time. This paper tracks developments in Japanese urban planning movement that the author took part in for about 20 years from 1964.
Study on Oil Spread Caused by the 1964 Niigata Earthquake Tsunami
Authors: Iwabuchi Yoko ,   Department of Civil Engineering, Tohoku University, 6-6-11 Aoba, Sendai, Miyagi 980-8579, Japan, Koshimura Shunichi , Imamura Fumihiko ,   Disaster Control Research Center, Graduate School of Engineering, Tohoku University, 6-6-11 Aoba, Sendai, Miyagi 980-8579, Japan
Published: April 2016

Chain disasters involving flammable materials colliding with tsunami-driven objects are not well understood. Despite the pressing need for knowledge on effects, scenarios have not been clarified. We reviewed the process of complex tsunami disasters, focusing on the spread of large fires caused by the destruction of oil storage tanks and tsunami inundations during the 1964 Niigata earthquake. We propose a model for simulating oil spread on tsunami inundation flow using a 2-layer hydrodynamic model preliminarily tested in a simple numerical wave tank. We discuss our results and projected perspectives.
Earthquake Damage to Industrial Facilities and Development of Seismic and Vibration Control Technology – Based on Experience from the 1995 Kobe (Hanshin-Awaji) Earthquake –
Authors: Suzuki Kohei ,   Tokyo Metropolitan University, 1-1 Minamiosawa, Hachioji, Tokyo 192-0397, Japan
Published: April 2016

This paper reviews the situations and features of earthquake damage to industrial facilities, manufacturing companies, energy supply facilities, and mechanical structures and installations in Japan, and traces trends of countermeasure technology developed focusing on earthquake resistance and vibration control. In Japan, with the 1964 Niigata earthquake as the turning point, earthquake damage to industrial facilities became a social problem. With power stations being constructed in the 1960s, it also became an important technological policy to establish seismic design method for nonbuilding structures such as equipment and piping systems related to nuclear power. The Kobe earthquake in 1995 damaged production companies including leading manufacturers so extensively that it brought a new focus to seismic considerations. We studied the damage to typical equipment and installations and, based on this experience, investigated the features of damage modes to industrial facilities and machinery and considered corresponding technical measures. We present some examples and discuss progressive trends in seismic and vibration control technology following the Kobe earthquake. In particular, we focus on the new seismic design code for high-pressure gas facilities and the development of seismic and vibration control dampers and their applications.
Anti-Earthquake Design of Industrial Facilities
Authors: Shibata Heki ,   Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo, 1-5-203 Sakurajosui 4, Setagaya-ku, Tokyo, Japan
Published: April 2016

In Japan two sets of guidelines pertaining to modern aseismic design are being prepared. One is the guideline for the aseismic design of petrochemical plants and oil refineries, and the other is the code of aseismic design of nuclear power plants. The International Atomic Energy Agency also established its own guideline very recently. Several other countries also provide their own codes or guidelines. Among these, the regulatory guides of the United States are well known and quoted often; however some of them seem to be too sophisticated, for example, the three dimensional input problem. The reason for this is that the requirement of safety for a nuclear power plant is so severe that all events which have even a very low probability of occurrence should be considered. Therefore, if the results of theoretical study indicate an event which may occur even in very low probability, then from the viewpoint of conservatism, the designer must consider that event in this design. Although for the design of a nuclear power plant this might be partly true, the author feels that the probability of occurrence of the event should be evaluated in relation to the potential hazard of the design object. As well as this, he believes that proper understanding of the event in relation to the actual record of failures during past destructive earthquakes should be taken into consideration.
Seismic Microzoning for Urban Planning
Authors: Kobayashi Hiroyoshi ,   Graduate School of Engineering and Science, Tokyo Institute of Technology, 1-51-14 Umegaoka, Setagaya-ku, Tokyo, Japan
Published: April 2016

Since the Nobi Earthquake of 1891, seismology, engineering seismology, earthquake engineering, structural engineering and sciences which are related to the phenomena of earthquakes were developed in Japan. Especially pure sciences and engineering made great advances individually. However, actual earthquake damage has not yet ceased to exist, and this damage leads the loss of a great number of human lives. Undeveloped areas and not so important buildings have always suffered these disasters. From worldwise point of view, there is a more serious problem, sometimes more than 10,000 people are killed by an earthquake. The importance of these sciences and engineering is centered in such problems, but at their present stage of development they can not solve these serious problems. Primarily because there are many problems regarding the economical conditions. Seismic microzoning has its purpose in the solution of the serious problems mentioned above. The results of seismic microzoning should cover whole areas and structures, for saving money in construction and to minimize the danger posed to human life. Also seismic microzoning works are related to the disaster prevention programs of various areas. Investigations into seismic microzoning are mainly related to the field of engineering seismology and its applications are in earthquake engineering, but fundamental investigations and applications can not be separated, they are closely related. Thus difficult points still exist, because only a few investigators have interests in the applications of seismic microzoning work. In this paper the author tries to explain the theoretical background and the technique of application of seismic microzoning which developed mainly in Japan. But these theoretical and technical results are not yet completed, and the facts interpreted from the strong motion seismograms and other results of field observations will correct these conclusions.
Private Company's Admirable Assistance in Derailment Attracts Nationwide Attention
Authors: Office Prepared by Editorial
Published: April 2016

A train derailment occurring on April 29, 2005 on the West Japan Railway Company (JR West) Fukuchiyama line near Osaka killed 106 passengers and the driver and injured 555 passengers. The quick action in the public and private sectors shortened the time needed for rescue activity and significantly reduced the number of dead and injured. The story holds an important lesson for people working in Japan's disaster management and the potential role volunteers could provide through individual and united contribution.
Seismic Design Codes for Buildings in Japan
Authors: Kuramoto Hiroshi ,   Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Toyohashi, University of Technology, 1-1 Hibarigaoka, Tempaku, Toyohashi, Aichi 441-8580, Japan
Published: April 2016

Two revised seismic design codes in the Building Standard Law of Japan, which were revised in 1981 and 2000, are simply reviewed with the transition of Japanese seismic design code in this paper. The central feature of the seismic code revised in 1981 was the introduction of a two-phase earthquake design. Allowable stress design was employed for first-phase earthquake design targeting the safety and serviceability of buildings during medium-level earthquake activity. Second-phase earthquake design, which is ultimate strength design, was added to provide safety against severe earthquake motion. On the other hand, the seismic code revised in 2000 precisely defines performance requirements and verification based on accurate earthquake response and limit states of a building. The capacity spectrummethod is used for evaluating the earthquake response. The code is applicable to any type of material and buildings such as seismic isolation systems as long as material properties are well defined and structural behavior is appropriately estimated.
Seismic Analysis of Underground Structures
Authors: Kawashima Kazuhiko ,   Department of Civil Engineering, Tokyo Institute of Technology, O-Okayama, Meguro, Tokyo 152-8552, Japan
Published: April 2016

A review on the seismic behavior and design of underground structures in soft ground is described focusing on the development of equivalent static seismic design called the seismic deformation method. Seismic isolation of underground structures is also presented.
Rebuilding Brick Masonry Housing Following the Mid-Java Earthquake Disaster of May 27, 2006
Authors: Takashima Masasuke ,   Graduate School of Environment and Disaster Research, Fuji Tokoha University, 325 Ohbuchi, Fuji, Shizuoka 417-0801, Japan, Tanaka Satoshi
Published: April 2016

The mid-Java earthquake disaster of May 27, 2006, collapsed 139,859 houses and killed 5,778 people when their homes collapsed. Despite the dreadful damage, people began rebuilding houses similar to whose before the disaster. Once a house collapsed, people dug their household goods out of the debris, then sorted out anything reusable, such as bricks, tiles, beams, and RC column rebars for building new houses. This contrasts with Japan, where private houses destroyed by an earthquake would be thoroughly demolished and disposed of as debris, although household goods or property would be reused if possible. This difference between countries points out how circumstances driving the process of building, maintaining, and rebuilding houses drastically vary among nations and over time. New seismic-resistant housing must meet circumstances in ways different from existing housing, requiring much attention and effort to getting an overall picture of how the housing process in a target field is proceeding, what factors affect the process, and how all of these relate.
Typhoon 0410 Causes Sediment Disaster in Tokushima Prefecture
Authors: Satofuka Yoshifumi ,   Division of Forest and Biomaterials Science, Graduate School of Agriculture, Kyoto University, Oiwake-Cho, Kitashirakawa, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8502, Japan, Mizuyama Takahisa
Published: April 2016

At the end of July 2004, Typhoon 0410 struck the Naka River basin in Tokushima Prefecture, triggering numerous slope failures, killing two residents, and largely or totally destroying many houses. We examine this sediment-related disaster and the phenomenon of landslide dam formation in which slope failure triggered by torrential rain blocks the river course. In Atsue, Kisawa Village, the landslide slope failure was 1,000 m long and 100 m wide. Such large slope failures may form landslide dams, greatly influencing the effluence of water and sediment in mountain basins. Using a numerical simulation model, we reproduced the process in which failed sediment forms a landslide dam and applied it to the case occurring as a result of Typhoon 0410.
Lessons Learned from Tokai Heavy Rainfall
Authors: Tominaga Akihiro ,   Nagoya Institute of Technology, Gokiso-cho, Showa-ku, Nagoya 466-8555, Japan
Published: April 2016

In September 2000, heavy rainfall in the Tokai district flooded Nagoya and its surroundings, wreaking heavy damage. This flood showed typical aspects of urban flood disaster. The damage expanded in a wide range and paralyzed city operations. This revealed the many problems of complex flood control systems in urbanized drainage basins and evacuation and rescue systems. The cases of the Shinkawa and Tenpaku Rivers are discussed below as typical urban flood problems.
Special Issue on Biological Disasters
Authors: Karaki Hideaki ,   Life Science Department, Science Council of Japan, 3-5-6-301 Honkomagome, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0021, Japan
Published: April 2016

Looking back on history, we find that human beings have suffered from many biological disasters. Most of these have been infectious diseases such as cholera, plague, and small pox. Medical advances have brought vaccines and other specific cures enabling us to avoid damages from some of infectious diseases, yet many remain to be conquered. Highly pathogenic avian influenza, a disease in birds occurring repeatedly since ancient times, is now found worldwide. A World Health Organization (WHO) announced on February 15, 2007 that of 273 bird flu victims in 11 countries in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, 166 have died. Since bird flu does not spread easily to human beings, the number of victims is limited. Once it mutates to a new strain of virus, however, it may be transmitted so easily that it could cause a large number of deaths. Many such cases have actually occurred in the past. The worst historically recorded ones involved Spanish flu, which started in 1918 during World War I among French and German soldiers and spread globally, resulting in 20 million to 60 million deaths. Spanish flu - said to have been named after its effects on the Spanish royal family - is known to have caused the highest number of deaths of any single infection. More than 30 types of emerging infectious diseases have recently been discovered including Lassa virus, Ebola virus, and Helicobacter pylori which causes stomach ulcers and stomach cancer. Among them, human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes AIDS, has produced 30 million victims globally since its discovery in Los Angeles in 1981. Many infectious diseases are also reemerging after having once been decreased. These include malaria, plague, diphtheria, tuberculosis, and influenza, according to WHO. Rabies is another such case that alone kills 50,000 people a year worldwide. Even in Japan, where no rabies cases have originated since 1956, two victims contracted rabies and died within the last year after being bitten during trips to Southeast Asia. Besides microorganisms or viruses, abnormal protein named 'prion' was found to cause disease. Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was such a case which set off a global panic when it spread from cattle to human beings, in whom it causes variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD). We have experienced biological terrorisms, which are intentionally-caused biological disasters by human. For example, the terrorist sent anthrax bacillus through the mail in the United States in 2001 - an act killed 5 people. WHO has warned that smallpox virus, plague bacillus, and botulinum toxin could also be used in bioterrorism. This issue features cases of biological disasters that are sure to prove both interesting and informational to readers. We thank the authors and others who, through their dedication and hard work, have made this edition possible.
Emerging and Reemerging Infectious Diseases - Past, Present and Future
Authors: Takeda Yoshifumi ,   Director, Cine-Science Laboratory, Co, 3-28-6 Tokiwadai, Itabashi, Tokyo 174-0071, Japan
Published: April 2016

The global threat of new infectious diseases first became widely recognized in the 1990s. The US government published a report on emerging and reemerging infectious diseases followed by the World Health Organization (WHO), which adopted the slogan "Emerging Infectious Diseases: Global Alert, Global Response" in 1997. Typical examples of the more than 30 infectious diseases emerging since 1970s are HIV/AIDS, Vibrio cholerae O139 infection, enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli infection, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), and avian influenza. The New Infectious Diseases Control Law enacted in Japan in 1999 was to control these emerging infectious diseases and the already existing ones.
AIDS: How Do We Overcome This Social or Biodisaster?
Authors: Murakami Tsutomu ,   National Institute of Infectious Diseases, 1-23-1 Toyama, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8640, Japan, Yamamoto Naoki
Published: April 2016

Some 40 million people in the world now live with the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which causes the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). The introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has dramatically reduced AIDS mortality in developed countries, but problems with HAART itself, such as side effects and the emergence of the drug-resistant viruses. Despite tremendous effort to develop either a preventive or therapeutic AIDS vaccine, no effective ones have emerged despite promising candidate anti-HIV drugs as a back up for HAART. Given that, although not a curable, AIDS is preventable and controllable, it is urgent to disseminate effective HIV prevention and treatment to the virus-infected people all over the world in order to stop the global AIDS epidemic as soon as possible.
Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) in Japan. How was the “Blanket Testing Myth” Created?
Authors: Karaki Hideaki ,   Life Science Department, Science Council of Japan
Published: April 2016

In 1986, after bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) was discovered in the United Kingdom, over 183,000 cases have been confirmed to date. In 1996, the UK government announced that BSE may be transmitted to humans, causing variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD). Retrospectively, the measures taken by the UK government were appropriate and the number of new cases of both BSE and vCJD decreased. Because of the long incubation period between infection and the appearance of clinical symptoms in both BSE and vCJD, a long time was needed to determine the effects of these measures. The inappropriate risk communication, however, caused people to lose trust in the UK government, and fear spread. In Japan, a cow infected with BSE was found in 2001. Although no cattle showing BSE symptoms were found and the risk of BSE infection was low, fear again spread due to inadequate risk communication. To allay consumer anxieties, the government began testing all cattle at slaughter facilities. This, in turn, generated the "blanket testing myth" - the misunderstanding that BSE testing was the most important measure needed to maintain the safety of beef consumption.
The Rabies Prevention and the Risk Management in Japan
Authors: Inoue Satoshi ,   Department of Veterinary Science, National Institute of Infectious Disease, 1-23-1 Toyama, Shinjuku, Tokyo 162-8640, Japan
Published: April 2016

Japan has been rabies-free since 1957, except an imported human rabies case in 1970. However, two imported rabies cases of human bitten by dog in the Philippines were reported in November, 2006. Increased travel to exotic destinations around the world is increasing the risk of infectious diseases. Lack of awareness of its serious infectiousness is due to its rarity, leaving people at risk and emphasizing the need for measures in risk management. This age of global due to internationalization of distribution forms has also been increased the potential risk of the imported rabies of not only human but also animals by the highly diverse routes of introduction. Any inappropriate public health response or delay at an early stage of rabies cases, even those in doubt, leads to unnecessary, excessive social anxiety. It is thus important to put effective measures in place while continuously upgrading existing measures.
Remediation of Contaminated Land
Authors: Kamon Masashi ,   Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University  Yoshida-honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan
Published: April 2016

Growing awareness of geoenvironmental hazards has made clear the need to develop better technical knowledge of environmental issues. We are thus studying how to remediate soil and groundwater contaminated by heavy metals and organic chemical substances in natural and man-made disasters. Remediation technology includes containment and risk assessment of contaminated land, with permeable reactive barriers (PRBs) and monitored natural attenuation (MNA) presented as the passive and cost-effective techniques. A case study to assess the effectiveness of a containment facility as a remedial technique in reducing human health risks was introduced. Numerical analyzed results confirm that this significantly reduces potential human health risks from land contaminated by polychlorinated biphenyls (PCB) and dioxin. Risk assessment based on in situ monitored data indicated that no significant health risks were induced. The important projected role of the geoenvironment is developing a sustainable contamination-free society.
Risk of Fire Spread in Densely Built Environments – A Review Emphasizing Cities in Japan –
Authors: Himoto Keisuke ,   Pioneering Research Unit for Next Generation, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
Published: April 2016

Japanese cities have historically experienced many urban fires and, despite measures implemented up to now, some 25,000 ha of vulnerable urban area remain at risk. In this review, we start with a history of urban fires mainly in the 20th century together with a description of the 1923 Kanto Earthquake Fire, the 1976 Sakata Fire, and the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake. We then look at attempts in developing prediction models for urban fire spread, features of empirical models widely applied in loss estimation, and physics-based models recently developed. We also review approaches to measures against urban fire spread and a recent attempt using a GIS-based system.
Lessons from Japanese Experience with Fire Disasters in Public Buildings
Authors: Hasemi Yuji ,   Department of Architecture, Faculty of Science and Engineering, Waseda University, 3-4-1 Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8555, Japan
Published: April 2016

Fatal fire disasters in commercial and hotel buildings and social effort not to repeat disasters from the 1930s to the beginning of the 21st Century in Japan are reviewed to verify what have been learnt from fire disasters in modern public buildings. Shirokiya Department fire in 1932, Japan's first significant fatal fire in commercial building, evoked social awareness of fire safety in high-rise buildings, and led to the requirements for general framework for the limitation of fire damage in large scale building such as fire separation for the restriction of damaged area, protected escape staircases, and sprinklers. However, procrastination in introducing smoke control and floor-to-floor fire and smoke separation is believed to have become a background for the frequent fatal fires in public buildings in the 1960s. Experience of fatal fires in hotel buildings from the 1960s to the mid-1980s led to the introduction of labeling of fire safety and qualification of fire safety manager for hotels, which became the main background for exterminating fatal hotel fires.
Experiment for Urban Great Fire
Authors: Murakami Suminao ,   Laboratory of Urban Safety Planning, 2-032 Demeure Gobancho, 12 Gobancho, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-0076, Japan
Published: April 2016

Tokyo had two fantastic chances to rebuild its urban areas based on ideal city planning. Unfortunately, it failed to take them. The first chance was after the Great Kanto Earthquake, which leveled Tokyo in 1923. The second chance was just after World War II, when the US Air Force flattened Tokyo with a carpet bombing that left 330,665 citizens dead, 2,316,325 houses burned to the ground, and a deserted area of 40,000,000 ha. The Tokyo metropolitan authorities failed again, mostly due to the desperate living conditions during the postwar occupation. Tokyo was therefore hastily and haphazardly reconstructed of combustible wooden housing without a planned sequence. In the decade from 1945 to 1955, Japan suffered every time typhoons hit the archipelago. These disasters prevented effective disaster management measures from being adopted to mitigate damage. National disasters continued to be local rather than national matters until well after 1955 and urban restoration based on advanced urban planning was sacrificed to economic growth, although economic growth greatly assisted restoration of urban areas. When the Korean war broke out in 1950, the US military force had many military requirements that stabilized economic conditions in Japan. Many business and manufacturing plants were restored but without long-term urban infrastructure planning. In 1959, the Ise Bay typhoon caused 4,697 deaths, left 407 missing and 38,921 injured, and destroyed 557,501 houses. This disaster forced the Japanese government, which had not formulated a framework for disaster mitigation management, to begin studying formulation of the Basic Disaster Measures Act. The Ise Bay typhoon highlighted key problems in disaster mitigation measures, resulting in the formulation of the Basic Disaster Mitigation Act in November 15, 1961.
Economic Problems During Recovery from the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake
Authors: Nagamatsu Shingo ,   National Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), 3-1 Tennodai, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0006, Japan
Published: April 2016

This paper reviews academic work on local economic recovery from the 1995 Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake in Kobe, Japan, and notes the implications for disaster management policies in large-scale disasters. The primary conclusion is that the earthquake disaster revealed Kobe's economic vulnerability. During recovery, the urban economy could not meet reconstruction demands, and had to compete with cities overseas, due to economic globalization. More emphasis should thus be placed on pre disaster measures that enable the local economy to maintain economic activities if disaster strikes and to have a competitive or unique economic structure that enables local economic survival despite temporary interruptions due to disasters.
Nishinomiya Built Environment Database and its Findings
Authors: Kei Horie*  ,   InterRisk Research Institute and Consulting, Inc., 3-11 Kanda Surugadai, Chiyoda-Ku, Tokyo 101-0062, Japan, Norio Maki**  , Haruo Hayashi**  ,   Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
Published: April 2016

We introduce the Nishinomiya Built Environment Database (NBED), which archives digital data on the disaster process from immediately after earthquake through recovery following the 1995 Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster. Using this database, we discuss findings obtained from analysis of the disaster process: (1) effectiveness of the Building Standard Law, (2) comparison of building damage assessment results, (3) the relationship between fatalities and building collapse, (4) collapse factors among wooden houses, and (5) monument construction process as an index of community recovery. We also demonstrate two applications – (1) the support tool for seismic risk assessment and (2) the training system for building damage assessment for issuing victim certificates. The NBED exhibits that it enables to use to simulate earthquake disaster and social reactions by those responding to disaster in local government and it contributes to establish countermeasures for disaster reduction.
Defining Recovery: 7-Element Model
Authors: Tamura Keiko ,   Research Center for Natural Hazards and Disaster Recovery, Niigata University, Igarashi 2-Nocho, Nishi-ku, Niigata 950-2181, Japan
Published: April 2016

We clarified problems in recovery for the victims of the Great Hanshin-Awaji Earthquake Disaster and their causal relationships using total quality management (TQM). We held grassroots workshops in which citizens actively participated and developed a bird's-eye view of recovery problems. We classified 1,632 opinion cards into 312 categories and, summarizing them, extracted 7 elements and a bird's-eye view of problems in recovery.
Long-term Life Recovery Processes Among Survivors of the 1995 Kobe Earthquake: 1999, 2001, 2003, and 2005 Life Recovery Social Survey Results
Authors: Tatsuki Shigeo ,   Professor, Department of Sociology, Doshisha Universty, Kamigyo-ku, Kyoto 602-8580, Japan
Published: April 2016

This paper summarizes findings from life recovery surveys conducted in 1999, 2001, 2003, and 2005 among 1995 Kobe earthquake survivors. The 1999 survey (N=915) developed some of the key scales for the project, including life recovery, physical and psychological stress, family relations, and civic-mindedness. The 2001 study (N=1203) integrated 1999 study findings and those from 1999 grassroots assessment of life recovery, from which a seven critical element model of life recovery was constructed. The effects of these seven critical elements on life recovery were empirically tested and validated by general linear model (GLM) analysis. The 2003 (N=1203) and 2005 (N=1028) studies focused both on life recovery outcomes and on intervening life recovery processes. Structural equation modeling (SEM) identified causal links among recovery-promotion factors, recovery processes such as event impact stabilization, and event evaluation through community empowerment, and recovery outcomes. Event impact was a process through which impact caused by earthquake damage, loss, and/or stress was alleviated by housing, household finances, and stress management. Through event evaluation, social ties and community rebuilding efforts directly or indirectly facilitated the reframing of earthquake experiences into positive narratives. Research and policy implications of these findings are discussed in the end.
Global Warming Projection by an Atmospheric Global Model with 20-km Grid
Authors: Kusunoki Shoji ,   Meteorological Research Institute, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan, Yoshimura Jun , Yoshimura Hiromasa , Mizuta Ryo , Oouchi Kazuyoshi , Noda Akira ,   Advanced Earth Science and Technology Organization, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-0052, Japan,   Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, 3173-25 Showa-machi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, Kanagawa 236-0001, Japan
Published: April 2016

We projected global warming on the Earth Simulator using a very high horizontal resolution atmospheric global general circulation model with 20-km grids, targeting tropical cyclones (TCs) and the rain band (Baiu) during the East Asian summer monsoon season because these bring typical extreme events and global climate models have not yielded reliable simulations or projections due to insufficient resolutions. Our model reproduces TCs and a Baiu rain band reasonably well under present-day climate conditions. In a warmer climate at the end of this century, the model projects, under A1B scenario of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), that the annual mean formation frequency of TCs decreases by about 30% globally but increased in the North Atlantic and TCs with largemaximumsurface winds increase. The Baiu rain band activity tends to intensify and last longer until August, suggesting more damages due to heavy rainfalls in a warmer climate. This is a review paper mainly originated from published articles on tropical cyclone by Oouchi et al. (2006) [26] and on the East Asian summer monsoon by Kusunoki et al. (2006) [17].
Maximum Potential Intensity of Tropical Cyclones Derived from Numerical Experiments Using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3)
Authors: Tsutsui Junichi ,   Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, 1646 Abiko, Chiba 270-1194, Japan
Published: April 2016

There is a theory for estimating the maximum potential intensity (MPI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) from large-scale thermodynamic environment. The present study investigates sea surface temperature (SST) and the vertical profile of upper-air temperature simulated using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM3) to assess possible near-future MPI changes focusing on the western North Pacific.

The MPI derived from the simulated thermodynamic environment for the present climate is generally reasonable in terms of geographical distribution and its relation to SST. Significant MPI changes in 2010 to 2029 relative to 1980 to 1999 are found in the tropics, where the central pressure fall increases by 5-7 hPa, or 6-8%, on average. Associated thermodynamic changes include SST warming of 0.6-0.7AC and amplification of upper tropospheric warming at a factor of two to three. This greater warming in the upper troposphere is important in suppressing a rapid increase in the MPI. Although the northward expansion of TC development area is marginal, greater thermodynamic change in the middle latitudes suggests an impact on the lifecycle of a TC moving into this region.
Potential Changes in Extreme Events Under Global Climate Change
Authors: Dairaku Koji ,   National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, Japan, Emori Seita , Higashi Hironori ,   National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan
Published: April 2016

Climate-related disasters are a serious problem in Asia. Advances in the understanding of meteorology and in the development of monitoring and forecasting systems have enhanced early warning systems, contributing immensely to reducing fatalities resulting from typhoons, cyclones, and floods. The frequency of extreme events causing water-related disasters has increased, however, over the last decade and may grow in the future due to anthropogenic activity. The sections that follow introduce two recent efforts in hydrologic projection in Asia.

Time-slice ensemble experiments using a high-resolution (T106) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) on the earth simulator revealed changes in the South Asian summer monsoon resulting from climate change. Model results under global warming conditions suggest increases in mean and extreme precipitation during the Asian summer monsoon. increases generally attributed to greater atmospheric moisture content. a thermodynamic change. Dynamic changes limit the intensification of mean precipitation. Enhanced extreme precipitation over land in South Asia arises from dynamic rather than thermodynamic changes. The impact of global warming on heavy precipitation features and flood risks in the Tama River basin in Japan is addressed using 12 atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation models (AOGCMs). Multi-model ensemble average 200-year quantiles in Tokyo from 2050 to 2300 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changes (IPCC) Special Reports on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario climate conditions were 1.07-1.20 times greater than that under present climate conditions. A 200-year quantile extreme event in the present occurs in much shorter return periods in the A1B scenario. High-water discharge in the basin rose by 10%-26% and flood volume increased by 46%-131% for precipitation in a 200-year return period. The risk of flooding in the basin is thus, even though the increase of extreme precipitation is not substantial, projected to be much higher than that presently estimated.
Long-Term Changes in Precipitation in Japan
Authors: Fujibe Fumiaki ,   Third Laboratory, Forecast Research Dept., Meteorological Research Inst., JMA, 1-1 Nagamine, Tsukuba 305-0052, Japan
Published: April 2016

This paper explores features of long-term changes in precipitation in Japan based on recent studies using daily data from 51 stations since 1901, partly updated for the present article. We show that heavy daily precipitation (≧ 200 mm and ≧ 100 mm) has significantly increased during the last century as weak to moderate precipitation (≧ 1 mm to ≧ 10 mm) has decreased. New analysis using hourly precipitation records at over 600 stations on the AMeDAS network has shown an increase in very intense hourly and six-hourly precipitations (≧100 mm/h and ≧300 mm/6h) during the last 28 years. It also shows that the trend in the spatial concentration of precipitation during the last century has been increasing, as have changes in the pattern of diurnal variation of precipitation, characterized by a relative increase in precipitation amounts in early morning and a decrease in early afternoon.
Mesoscale Precipitation Systems Along the Meiyu/Baiu Front and Future Expectation for Research Radar and Weather Radar Network
Authors: Uyeda Hiroshi ,   Hydroshperic Atmospheric Research Center, Nagoya University, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan
Published: April 2016

Field experiments on precipitation systems in East Asia are a key to better understanding global climate change, to uncovering weather phenomena related to meteorological disasters in the region, and to improving quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) and quantitative precipitation forecasting (QPF). Observations with Doppler radar and radiosonde have clarified the structure of Meiyu/Baiu frontal precipitation systems and Typhoon rainbands. The Hydroshperic Atmospheric Research Center (HyARC) of Nagoya University has conducted field experiments on precipitation systems over the Yangtze River and East China Sea using dual Doppler radar observation on convective systems around the Meiyu front and aircraft observation with dropsonde on Baiu frontal precipitation systems. These studies are revealing characteristics of precipitation systems over the East China Sea and in East Asia. Precipitation clouds form dramatically rapidly in the moist environment, and precipitation systems developing south of the Baiu front play an important role on the formation of heavy rainfalls along the west coast of Kyushu, Japan. We discuss 1) the results of recent field experiments on precipitation systems over the East China Sea, 2) observation networks and preparation of new observation tools, 3) the development of a cloud resolving model to simulate precipitation systems, and 4) new research collaboration in East Asia.
Special Issue on Climate Change (Part 2)
Authors: Karaki Hideaki ,   Professor emeritus of the University of Tokyo  Expert member of the Food Safety Commission, Cabinet Office Executive member of the Science Council of Japan  3-5-6-301 Honkomagome, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo 113-0021, Japan Tokyo, Ikeda Syunsuke ,   Institute of Technology   2-12-1 Ookayama, Meguro,  Tokyo 152-8552, Japan
Published: April 2016

Global warming precipitated by human activity in turn affects plants and animals in addition to human life. This special issue on Climate Change (Part 2) presents two reviews on the biological effects of global warming. Higuchi discusses how plants have started to bloom, leaf, and bear fruits earlier than 30 years ago. Birds have started laying eggs earlier than 25 years ago and migrating and singing -- both related to breeding -- earlier than before. Other changes include a shift in the ranges of some plants and animals northward or to higher elevations. One problem resulting from these changes are distortions or mismatches in biological interactions such as predation, pollination, seed dispersion, and parasitism because changes in phenology and habitation ranges vary by species and groups. newpage Global warming is thus also affecting biodiversity and changing ecosystem structures and functioning. In the second review, Kobayashi et al. show how global warming is changing the habitation range of disease-transmitting insects such as mosquitoes, ticks, and fleas. Because insects are cold-blooded, their activities are strongly influenced by environmental temperature. Changes in the distribution of disease-transmitting "vector" insects in turn change the distribution of disease. Summarizing his review, Higuchi wrote that "From a cynical point of view, it could be said that we are currently making an experiment on a global scale to investigate when and how our warming of the entire globe will affect the natural world and our own lifestyles."