bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A close look at the demography of Afghanistan
Authors: Trussell James , Brown Eleanor
Published: March 2007

The first survey designed to allow estimates of the demographic characteristics of Afghanistan’s sedentary population was conducted during the period 1972–1974. Our analysis of these data, based on recently developed techniques for handling incomplete or inaccurate data, suggests that this population lives under conditions that are extreme when judged by modern standards. Marriage is early, especially for females, and universal. Marital fertility conforms to a pattern of natural fertility and total fertility is high. The birth rate is among the highest in the world today, and the expectation of life at birth is among the very lowest. Mortality is lower in urban areas than in rural areas, whereas total fertility is approximately the same in both. Our estimates of fertility and mortality imply stable populations which match closely the observed age distributions for both the rural and urban areas.
Increase in Natural Fertility During the Early Stages of Modernization: Canadian Indians Case Study
Authors: Romaniuk A.
Published: March 2007

It has been hypothesized that populations may experience an increase in their natural fertility during the early stages of modernization as a result of the relaxation of various fertility-inhibiting practices and customs prevalent in traditional societies. This article offers evidence of such an increase in natural fertility among Canadian Indians. The main underlying cause is found to be in the massive, almost abrupt, shift from prolonged breastfeeding to bottle feeding which took place prior to the onset of large-scale birth control practices among Canadian Indians.
A Generalized Index of Dissimilarity
Authors: Sakoda James M.
Published: March 2007

The index of dissimilarity can be interpreted as the ratio of the number that must be moved from cells of excess to cells of deficit to achieve even distribution. This interpretation is used to generalize the index in two directions. First, the index is made applicable to more than two groups at a time. Second, an index and a test of significance are made available for explorations of cells of a two-way contingency table. DISSIM is the name of a computer program which provides these calculations for contingency tables.
A note on New Estimates of the Mortality of the Extreme Aged
Authors: Rosenwaike Ira
Published: March 2007

This note reports on the utilization of the “extinct generation” method, a procedure that permits a reconstruction of “extinct” population cohorts from the death statistics for a series of years and provides alternative estimates of the mortality of the extreme aged population (persons 85 years of age and over) in the United States during the period 1951–1965. Remarkably close correspondence was found between the annual mortality rates thus derived and figures published by the National Center for Health Statistics. It was concluded that the quality of the mortality rates produced was superior to the official figures but not markedly so. An advantage of the method is the ability to produce rates in detail, such as for five-year age groups, not ordinarily published for the 85 and over population.
Starting Age and Subsequent Birth Intervals in Cohabitational Unions in Current Danish Cohorts, 1975
Authors: Finnäs Fialar , Hoem Jan M.
Published: March 2007

This paper presents some main results of an investigation by life table methods of birth interval data in cohabitational unions (marriages as well as consensual unions) in current Danish cohorts. Our results confirm previous findings that an early age at the start of recorded exposure to childbearing risk is indicative of a rapid pace and high level of subsequent fertility. The analysis modifies previous results and adds several new details regarding cohort trends and the effect of parity at the start of reported cohabitation. For each parity within a period of cohabitation, fertility differentials by reported starting age seem to have diminished from our older cohorts (of age up to 49 years in 1975) to our younger ones (of age less than 30 years in 1975). There are indications of a dramatic change in childbearing behaviour following the arrival of novel attitudes to non-marital cohabitation and childbearing in Denmark about 1967.
Distortions caused by nonobservation of periods of cohabitation before the latest
Authors: Hoem Jan M.
Published: March 2007

In retrospective studies of individual life histories, some or all of the information pertaining to periods prior to the latest event interval of interest will sometimes be left out. This simplifies data collection, and it may improve the reliability of the data actually obtained by reducing misreporting. Unfortunately, it may also introduce serious distortion in estimates based on such data. This paper investigates the extent of such distortion in a retrospective study of nonmarital cohabitation, marriage, and childbearing when information on consensual unions is restricted.
Individual and couple utility of children
Authors: Thomson Elizabeth
Published: March 2007

Models specifying the utility of another child as either a couple or an individual experience and incorporating variations in the measurement properties of responses about child utility and expectations are estimated with data from the U.S. Value of Children survey. Full information, maximum likelihood analyses indicate that child utility is an individual experience of wives and husbands rather than a shared couple experience. That is, differences in the measurement properties of wives’ and husbands’ responses do not account entirely for the less than perfect correlations between their responses. These findings demonstrate the importance of estimating errors in measurement in the analysis of wives’ and husbands’ responses about the utility of children, and they challenge the assumption that marital partners share the utility of children.
Arima models of seasonal variation in U. S. birth and death rates
Authors: Land Kenneth C. , Cantor David
Published: March 2007

This paper applies methods of seasonal ARIMA time series analysis to U. S. monthly birth and death rates for January 1950–December 1978. For model selection, the conventional Box-Jenkins (1970, 1976) diagnostic checks are used in conjunction with some suggestions of Nerlove et al. (1979). This results in final models that contain significant second-order autoregressive components, as well as seasonal moving-average components, for both series. In addition, some evidence is found in the birth rate series for weekly periodicities. These findings imply the existence of a seasonal adjustment procedure that improves on the Census X-11 program currently used by vital statistics agencies.
The centenarian question and old-age mortality in the Soviet Union, 1959–1970
Authors: Bennett Neil G. , Garson Lea Keil
Published: March 2007

Are claims of extraordinarily low mortality levels in the USSR justifiable? Applying a recently developed methodology appropriate for nonstable populations to 1959 and 1970 census data from the Soviet Union, we find that mortality is generally understated for the country as a whole and for various regions and republics. This is particularly so for the republics composing the Central Asian region and the Caucasus. Age overstatement appears to be extremely pronounced in the oldest segments of the population. Using the new methodology, we can derive the age distribution that is uniquely implied by a given life table and a set of age-specific rates of growth obtained from two censuses. When we use the official Soviet life tables in this procedure, we find that the reported number of centenarians is at least 28.9 percent overstated for males and 7.5 percent for females. If one were to posit that Soviet mortality during 1959 to 1970 was, in fact, no better than the Swedish mortality experience during roughly the same time period, then the true number of centenarians could be no more than 2 percent of that reported.
Differentials in infant and child mortality and their change over time: Guatemala, 1959–1973
Authors: Haines Michael R. , Avery Roger C. , Strong Michael A.
Published: March 2007

This paper employs 5 percent samples of the Guatemalan censuses of 1964 and 1973 to estimate differential childhood mortality. For 1973, conventional indirect mortality estimation procedures were applied; for 1964, a modification of the Preston-Palloni technique was used. A major result is that differential child mortality widened appreciably between about 1959 and about 1968. Factors leading to mortality decline were possibly unequally spread by geographic region, rural-urban residence, ethnic groups, and educational groups. Guatemala City seems to have benefited most from the decline. Analysis of small geographic units supports these conclusions and suggests some role for public health. A by-product of the analysis was the finding that parity was understated in the 1964 census.
Family Size Composition Differentials between Central City-Suburb and Metropolitan-Nonmetropolltan Migration Streams
Authors: White Ralph B.
Published: March 2007

During the migration intervals 1965–1970, 1970–1975, and 1975–1979, families that migrated from Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSAs) to nonmetropolitan areas and from central cities to suburban rings were larger in mean size than families that composed the respective counterstreams. Mean family sizes declined sharply for all groups throughout the period, but absolute differentials between opposing streams increased slightly. In terms of the selective attraction of families by size, nonmetropolitan net in-migration was very similar to suburbanization within SMSAs. A considerable portion of recent nonmetropolitan net gains resulted from the exchange of larger in-migrant families for smaller outmigrant families.
Immigration and the Stable Population Model
Authors: Espenshade Thomas J. , Bouvier Leon F. , Arthur W. Brian
Published: March 2007

This paper reports on work aimed at extending stable population theory to include immigration. Its central finding is that, as long as fertility is below replacement, a constant number and age distribution of immigrants (with fixed fertility and mortality schedules) lead to a stationary population. Neither the level of the net reproduction rate nor the size of the annual immigration affects this conclusion; a stationary population eventually emerges. How this stationary population is created is studied, as is the generational distribution of the constant annual stream of births and of the total population. It is also shown that immigrants and their early descendants may have fertility well above replacement (as long as later generations adopt and maintain fertility below replacement), and the outcome will still be a long-run stationary population.
Measuring Temporal Stability in Regression Models of Population Estimation
Authors: Mandell Marylou , Tayman Jeffrey
Published: March 2007

This paper introduces an empirical indicator designed to measure the temporal stability of regression models used to produce subnational population estimates. Analysis of 67 counties in Florida centers on 1970 total population estimates generated from ratio-correlation and difference-correlation models. Comparisons are made between eight different regression specifications and employ a quantitative measure of relative estimate accuracy. The major findings of this study are that (a) variable measurement and type are important determinants of estimate accuracy, and (b) although temporal stability of the coefficients impacts estimation errors, the influence is not as pervasive as is suggested in the literature.
Employment trends of young mothers and the opportunity cost of babies in the United States
Authors: Cramer James C.
Published: March 2007

The central concept of microeconomic theories of fertility is opportunity cost—the product of wife’s employment lost due to childbearing and the value of her employment. This paper presents a model for analyzing opportunity cost using panel data. The average loss of employment attributable to a second- or higher-order birth, calculated at around age 2, is over 400 hours per year. This time cost represents an income loss of about $1050 in 1969 dollars. Time cost is independent of such demographic factors as birth order and age of oldest sibling. Neither does time cost depend on husband’s wage rate or wife’s education or potential wage rate. This indicates that many microeconomic models of fertility have been seriously misspecified. The paper also compares results from static and dynamic models, explores possible problems due to simultaneity bias, investigates the relationship between changes in employment (including time cost) and initial employment level, and identifies the difficulties of theorizing about opportunity cost.
Labor supply behavior of prospective and new mothers
Authors: Shapiro David , Mott Frank L.
Published: March 2007

Utilizing unique data generated from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Young Women, this paper examines the labor force participation of young mothers in the months immediately preceding and following the birth of the first child. Labor supply behavior at this point in the life cycle is described in greater detail than has hitherto been available. In addition, we analyze the independent effect of several factors of interest on the probability that a young woman will be in the labor force during various intervals surrounding the first birth.
The end of “Catholic” fertility
Authors: Westoff Charles F. , Jones Elise F.
Published: March 2007

Catholic and non-Catholic fertility during the post-World War II period are compared in this paper. Evidence accumulated across five sample surveys of fertility in the United States, which were conducted at five-year intervals from 1955 through 1975, forms the basis for the analysis; both cohort and period measures are employed. Starting from a situation where Catholic fertility was very little higher than that of non-Catholics, it is shown that the differential increased markedly during the baby boom and then declined to a point where the two trends nearly come together in the mid1970s. Interpretation of the recent convergence in the light of various theories that have been put forward to explain the differential suggests that it will be an enduring phenomenon.
Motivations for the inmigration component of population turnaround in nonmetropolitan areas
Authors: Williams James D. , Sofranko Andrew J.
Published: March 2007

Data from a 1977 survey of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan origin households migrating to 75 high net inmigration counties of the Midwest are examined to consider the motivational basis for the inmigration component of post-1970 non metropolitan migration trends. Findings suggest that the major stated motivations for leaving places of origin, especially among those from metropolitan areas, are “quality of life” considerations. About a fourth of the metropolitan origin migrants’ and half of the non metropolitan origin migrants’ reasons are job-related. Anti-urban push and pro-rural pull responses are prevalent among migrants from metropolitan areas. Subsequent analysis of reasons for leaving metropolitan residences suggests consistency with other objective variables. Among households with a working-age head, those leaving for “quality of life” reasons came disproportionately from the largest metropolitan centers and went to the smallest towns. Those moving for non-employment reasons are not more likely to have taken an initial income loss, though they are less likely to experience immediate income gains.
Female migration in Chile: Types of moves and socioeconomic characteristics
Authors: Herold Joan M.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines inter-provincial female migration in Chile for the 1965–1970 period, with a view to describing socioeconomic characteristics of migrant women and to determining differences and similarities in age, educational level, occupation, and type of move (first, return, or repeat) between movers to the capital and to other urban areas. Data are from a five percent sample of the 1970 Chilean census. Findings reveal that non-return migrants to other urban areas are differentiated from those to Santiago by an older age structure, higher educational levels, higher status occupations, and are more likely to be making a second (or higher-order) move. Moreover, educational measures suggest that recent female migration to urban Chile is more prevalent among the upper than the lower strata of the society.
Effects of dependency among causes of death for cause elimination life table strategies
Authors: Manton Kenneth G. , Poss Sharon S.
Published: March 2007

A study is made of the effects of associated causes of death, and of dependency among causes of death, by observing the relative importance of one cause of death when another is eliminated under various competing risk models. Two disease pairs, cancer and infectious disease and stroke and ischemic heart disease, are selected for analysis because they represent different types of disease dependence. Crude probabilities of death for each disease are calculated for the U.S. white male population in 1969. Next, the effects of the complementary disease in a pair are hypothetically eliminated in one of three ways: (a) a standard competing risk adjustment for cause elimination when deaths are singly caused (Chiang, 1968), (b) lethal defect-pattern of failure computations for multiply caused death when no causal order is inferred (Manton et al., 1976), and (c) relative susceptibility computations for multiply caused deaths when causes are ordered (Wong, 1977). The paper closes with a discussion of the relative merits of the three types of adjustments.
Demographic Responses and Demographic Transitions: A Case Study of Sweden
Authors: Mosher William D.
Published: March 2007

An important study by Friedlander investigated some of the effects of different demographic responses on national demographic transitions. England and Sweden were advanced as cases that approximated the suggested hypothetical models of transitions. His argument implied that the rural population of a country (in this case Sweden) experiencing mortality decline but little industrialization would reduce its fertility rates if out-migration from agricultural areas were not possible. This present study, using more complete data and better measures, concludes that this did not occur in Sweden—it did not conform to Friedlander’s hypothesized model. Because the potential implications of these findings could be profound and wide-ranging, there is a need for more studies of individual countries using better data and giving more careful attention to Davis’s theory on which the Friedlander hypothesis is based.
Improving Accuracy in Multiple Regression Estimates of Population Using Principles from Causal Modelling
Authors: Swanson David A.
Published: March 2007

This paper reports a mildly restricted procedure for using a theoretical causal ordering and principles from path analysis to provide a basis for modifying regression coefficients in order to improve the estimation accuracy of the ratio-correlation method of population estimation. The modification is intended to take into account temporal changes in the structure of variable relationships, a major element in determining the accuracy of post-censal estimates. The modification of coefficients is conservative in that it uses rank-ordering as a basis of change. Empirical results are reported for counties in Washington state that demonstrate the increased accuracy obtained using the proposed procedure.
Estimating the Effect of Child Mortality on the Number of Births
Authors: Olsen Randall J.
Published: March 2007

This article rigorously derives the properties of the regression of births on child deaths. It is shown how the raw regression coefficient may be corrected for the effects of fertility on mortality so that the rate at which dead children are replaced may be estimated. The method is applied to data from Colombia. It is found that the mortality rate differs across individuals and is correlated with fertility. Such conditions vitiate the use of birth intervals and parity progression ratios yet can be dealt with using the new method. On average each death produces 0.2 new births as a direct result of the death. Fertility hoarding may raise the total fertility response to roughly one-half birth per death.
Historical epidemiology of smallpox in Åland, Finland: 1751–1890
Authors: Mielke James H. , Jorde Lynn B. , Gene Trapp P. , Anderton Douglas L. , Pitkänen Kari , Eriksson Aldur W.
Published: March 2007

We analyze a 140-year series of smallpox deaths in the Åland Islands, Finland. Vaccination, introduced in 1805, dramatically reduced the annual number of smallpox deaths. It also influenced the age distribution of smallpox deaths, changing smallpox from a childhood disease before 1805 to one which affected both adults and children after 1805. This appears to be due to the fact that Ålanders were usually vaccinated only once during childhood and often lost their immunity during adulthood. Spectral analysis of the prevaccination time series of smallpox deaths demonstrates a strong seven-year periodicity, reflecting the amount of time necessary to build up a cohort of nonimmune individuals. After the introduction of vaccination, the periodicity changes to eight years. The probability that a parish in Åland was affected by a smallpox epidemic is shown to be highly correlated with migration patterns and parish population sizes.
The impact of child mortality on spacing by parity: A Cox-regression analysis
Authors: Lehrer Evelyn
Published: March 2007

Child mortality may affect spacing through biological and behavioral channels. The death of a child may elicit a desire to have another one soon; further, it may interrupt breastfeeding and shorten the sterile period following childbirth. The hypothesis that the child mortality-spacing linkage varies across parities, being strongest in the middle parities, is examined using microdata from Malaysia and the Cox-regression technique. The empirical results lend support to the hypothesis.
Fertility adaptation of rural-to-urban migrant women: A method of estimation applled to Korean women
Authors: Farber Stephen C. , Lee Bun Song
Published: March 2007

This study proposes to test for the existence of an adaptation effect of rural-to-urban migration. The design is to divide migrants into two groups at the time of observation: one group which had migrated by that time, and another group consisting of individuals who had not yet migrated but are known to migrate later. It is presumed that if the former group had not migrated it would have had a birth path similar to the latter group. Adaptation is measured by the difference between this hypothetical birth path and the actual birth path of migrants observed after they migrate. The model is tested on Korean women and found to support the existence of an adaptation effect.
Decomposition of the difference between two rates with hierarchical factors
Authors: Kim Young J. , Strobino Donna M.
Published: March 2007

A decomposition method for the difference between two rates when data are classified by two factors, one of which may be considered as a more direct factor than the other for the event under consideration, is presented in this paper. The two factors are treated as hierarchical and thus this method is conceptually different from the decomposition methods of Kitagawa (1955) and Das Gupta (1978), in which two factors are treated as symmetrical. Our method is shown to be a balanced version of the Cho-Retherford (1973) decomposition method. Analyses of neonatal mortality rates using our method are presented as an example.
Improving the measurement of temporal change in regression models used for county population estimates
Authors: Swanson David A. , Tedrow Lucky M.
Published: March 2007

The ratio-correlation method of population estimation is shown to contain an inconsistent temporal relationship between the model’s empirical structure and its actual application. A simple transformation of the model’s variables is provided that eliminates the inconsistency. Two tests of the relative accuracy of the original and transformed models show that the transformed model achieves accuracy levels equal to or higher than the original. In one test, all nine years show a higher degree of accuracy, of which four are statistically significant. Several possible reasons are given for the increased accuracy shown by the transformed model. The transformation, termed the “rate-correlation” model, is recommended as a logical starting point in the examination of coefficient stability and spatial autocorrelation as well as a method for estimating small populations.
An assessment of the accuracy of a regional economic-demographic projection model
Authors: Murdock Steve H. , Leistritz F. Larry , Hamm Rita R. , Hwang Sean-Shong , Parpia Banoo
Published: March 2007

A large number of regional economic-demographic projection models have been developed but their accuracy has seldom been evaluated. This article examines the accuracy of one such model in projecting total populations for 1980, using 1970 base data, for 106 counties and 553 places in two states.

Comparisons of the model’s projections to 1980 Census counts reveal mean percentage absolute differences of 10 percent for counties and 14 percent for places. In addition, the model’s accuracy was comparable to that for alternative projection systems. When projections for places of less than 1,000 are excluded, differences are substantially reduced. Economic-demographic models appear to be quite useful and deserve further attention.
Averaging population density
Authors: Craig John
Published: March 2007

Population density is a commonly quoted statistic. Almost no general descriptive summary of the population of an area is complete without a density listing, table or map. As each such density statistic is an average, it is worth considering what kind of average is being used. This article analyzes this and illustrates the effect of some alternative calculations using population density data for Great Britain; the findings, however, are of general validity.
Individual Mobility, Population Growth and Labor Force Participation
Authors: Cantrell R. Stephen , Clark Robert L.
Published: March 2007

Trends in labor force participation rates and the age of retirement are shown to be important determinants of upward mobility. Reductions in age specific participation rates increase the speed of movement through the employment hierarchy. In conjunction with economic development, the falling labor force participation of older men acts to offset the adverse effects of slowing population growth on promotional prospects. These conclusions are reached by extending a model of employment status developed by Keyfitz to limit employment competition to only those actually in the labor force.
A Macrosimulation Approach to the Investigation of Natural Fertility
Authors: Willigan J. Dennis , Mineau Geraldine P. , Anderton Douglas L. , Bean Lee L.
Published: March 2007

This paper is part of a long-term investigation known as the Mormon Historical Demography Project. It examines the capability of a simulation model, originally proposed by John Bongaarts (1976), to fit the natural fertility pattern which characterized the mid-nineteenth century Mormon population. Application of this model permits estimates to be made of the historical timing and age-incidence of fertility limitation. A sensitivity analysis of the model’s parameters demonstrates that simple changes in the model’s proximate determinants of fertility, excluding contraceptive practices, would be insufficientto account for later transition effects. Thus the results successfully capture the dynamics underlying the Mormon natural fertility pattern as well as offer a framework for future modeling of the transition away from natural fertility.
The Transition to Nonmetropolitan Population Deconcentration
Authors: Lichter Daniel T. , Fuguitt Glenn V.
Published: March 2007

A major aim of this study is to address our lack of understanding of rural-urban population change within nonmetropolitan counties of the United States. Specifically, we (a) examine trends between 1950 and 1975 in differential rural and urban growth rates within nonmetropolitan counties, and (b) examine the relationship between county location/function and within-county deconcentration. We show that the post-1970period has not simply marked the net shift of population from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan areas, but has also ushered in a pattern of population deconcentration within most nonmetropolitan areas. It is also clear that traditional ecological and economic base variables have been of diminishing utility in explaining deconcentration during the 1970s, suggesting that deconcentration is now evident in nonmetropolitan counties characterized by a broad spectrum of economic and sociodemographic traits.
Intermediate Variables and Educational Differentials in Fertility in Korea and the Philippines
Authors: Bumpass Larry , Rindfuss Ronald R. , Palmore James A. , Concepcion Mercedes , Choi Byoung Mohk
Published: March 2007

This analysis compares the effects of contraceptive use and infant and fetal mortality on the pace offertility in Korea and the Philippines and explores the mediating effects of these intermediate variables on educational differentials in childspacing. For birth intervals initiated in a recent period before a sample survey, second, third and higher-order intervals are examined. Transitions within successive segments of interval exposure (qxvalues) are examined rather than cumulative transitions (1 - lxvalues). This methodological choice is substantively important because breastfeeding should primarily affect early segments of exposure and because it allows empirical examination of the timing of the effects of other variables such as contraceptive use. Further, this choice allows multivariate analysis within the structure of the life-table perspective. The results show substantial differences in patterns between Korea and the Philippines, indicate clearly the effect of each intermediate variable, and illustrate how educational differentials in fertility are affected by contraception and infant and fetal mortality.
A model of fertility by planning status
Authors: Ryder Norman B.
Published: March 2007

Data from the 1965 and 1970 National Fertility Studies are used to produce classifications of births and exposure to births by planning status for real and synthetic marriage cohorts, covering the experience of the 1940s, 1950s, and 1960s. Indices of reproductive input (three ends, three means, and three conditions) and of conventional reproductive output (such as the mean number of unintended births) are derived from these observations. The outputs are expressed as deterministic equations in terms of the inputs; this permits the study of the structure of fertility determination. The model provides a parsimonious description of the sources of change in fertility and an instrument of possible use in policy.
The malleability of fertility-related attitudes and behavior in a filipino migrant sample
Authors: Card Josefina Jayme
Published: March 2007

The malleability of fertility-related attitudes and behavior was studied by analyzing data collected from cross-sectional groups of Filipino migrants who had lived in the United States for varying lengths of time, in conjunction with data from a comparison group of Caucasians from the Filipinos’ neighborhoods. With increasing number of years lived in the United States, Filipino migrants’ fertility-related knowledge, attitudes, and desires became increasingly similar to those of the Caucasian group, but their contraceptive behavior did not. While approximately equal numbers of Filipinos and Caucasians were contracepting, Filipino couples regardless of duration of stay in the United States were using less effective methods with less regularity. Despite these contraceptive behavior patterns, Filipino migrants perceived that they would have 0.32 fewer children in the United States than they would have had had they remained in the Philippines. By far the most predominant reason given by Filipino respondents for changing fertility patterns in the United States was the difficulty of obtaining child care in the new environment.
Estimating the intrinsic rate of increase of a population from the average numbers of younger and older sisters
Authors: Goldman Noreen
Published: March 2007

Based on stable population theory, a mathematical relationship is developed between the intrinsic rate of increase (r) of a population and the ratio (Z) of the average number of younger sisters ever born to the average number of older sisters ever born, for a random sample of women in the population. This mathematical formula is then converted into a technique for estimating r from data on numbers of sisters. The extent to which the technique may be generalizable to actual populations is discussed.
The demeny-shorter and three-census methods for correcting age data
Authors: Ntozi James Patrick Manyenye
Published: March 2007

This paper presents, tests, applies, and compares methods that utilize age data collected at consecutive censuses to examine and adjust for age and coverage errors. The Demeny-Shorter method, for example, was devised for this purpose, and its flexibility in regard to census coverage errors is examined. The Demeny-Shorter method is found difficult to apply directly, so a method based on the same idea as the Demeny-Shorter method but utilizing age data from three, instead of two, successive censuses is presented and discussed as a possible alternative. This three-census method is applied to data from Turkey’s censuses and, in some cases, found to be better than the Demeny-Shorter method, because the former allows for and estimates the likely changes in census coverage and different patterns of age errors in successive censuses. Unfortunately, the three-census method cannot be applied to data from most developing countries on account of a lack of the requisite series of censuses.
Adjustment of rates using multiplicative models
Authors: Clogg Clifford C.
Published: March 2007

By the conception of an underlying multiplicative model for cross-classified data, a statistical method for the adjustment of rates is suggested. This method rests upon the multiplicative definition of interaction in cross-classifications and can lead to results different from those obtained from the more usual methods (e.g., Kitagawa, 1964). Comparisons with alternative approaches are made, and illustrative applications to data are provided.
On the derivation of a two-sex stable population model
Authors: Mitra S.
Published: March 2007

It is well known that the intrinsic rates of growth derived separately for the males and females in a population, when one assumes the continuation of their respective mortality and fertility experiences, usually turn out to be different. Noting that the phenomenon of human reproduction is a product of the cooperation between the two sexes, we have attempted in this paper to define the sex-age-specific fertility rates as a function not only of age but also of time, where the latter is implicitly introduced in the model through the sex composition of the reproductive population. It has been shown that a stable model can then be defined based on such changing sex-age-specific fertility rates and given sets of unchanging mortality rates. The fertility rates stabilize with time, and the common intrinsic rates of growth for the two sexes are found to lie in the interval generated by the corresponding rates of the two one-sex models. Several other interesting relationships among the parameters of this model have been presented in the paper. Among other alternatives, a least square solution has been presented for the values of sex-age-specific fertility rates that are minimally discrepant with the observed rates but are consistent in terms of the parametric estimates they generate. It is interesting to note that a relatively modest adjustment in the sex-age-specific fertility rates is all that it takes to eliminate the inconsistencies generated by the separate one-sex models.
An evaluation of brass mortality estimates under conditions of declining mortality
Authors: Kraly Ellen Percy , Norris Douglas A.
Published: March 2007

An evaluation of the Brass childhood mortality estimates under conditions of declining mortality shows them to overestimate current mortality. Error increases as the rate of mortality decline increases, as the childhood age up to which cumulative mortality is being estimated increases, and as age at onset of childbearing decreases. We use the results to develop a method for correcting the Brass estimates for the effects of quasistability. The method requires an estimate of the rate of mortality decline within the population in addition to information on the pattern of childbearing in the population.
Dynamics of some special populations with NRR = 1
Authors: Kim Young J. , Sykes Zenas M.
Published: March 2007

We discuss two special cases of population dynamics with changing vital rates subject to the constraint NRR = I and consider the specifics of ergodicity and stationarity. By restricting the number of age groups to two, we can make explicit the way weak ergodicity works. When mortality is constant and the period NRR = I, a life-table stationary population eventually results; everything of demographic interest (except age-specific fertility and the cohort NRR) is asymptotically constant. With changing mortality, but both period and cohort NRR = 1, only weak ergodicity holds, and everything changes over time.
Population movement and city-suburb redistribution: An analytic framework
Authors: Frey William H.
Published: March 2007

This paper introduces an analytic framework that can be used to assess the relationships between individual movement differentials and place characteristics, on the one hand, and aggregate mobility levels and city-suburb population change (in size or composition), on the other. Application of this framework using census data for individual metropolitan areas allows the analyst to decompose population changes due to net migration into contributing mobility streams and their component rates which are subject to unique community and individual influences. The paper provides both theoretical and empirical rationale for the framework, illustrates its use with 1970 census data, and discusses its implications for empirical research on city-suburb population redistribution.
Metropolitan deconcentration: Subareal inmigration and central city to ring mobility patterns among southern SMSAs
Authors: Biggar Jeanne C. , Biasiolli Francis C.
Published: March 2007

The analysis of in-migration streams and subareal residential mobility patterns for moves made between 1965 and 1970in SMSAs in the East South Central and South Atlantic census divisions indicates that, despite their historical contexts, these metropolitan areas now show spatial differentiation patterns similar to those of the great cities of the Northeast. The white population has increased in ring areas primarily because of in-migration rates; the black population in the central cities has increased primarily because of in-migration rates to those subareas. Little variation in these patterns across SMSA size categories was apparent.
Indigenous labor supply, sustenance organization, and population redistribution in nonmetropolitan America: An extension of the ecological theory of migration
Authors: Poston Dudley L. , White Ralph
Published: March 2007

The ecological theory of migration asserts that change in sustenance organization, to the extent that it produces changes in the opportunities for living, necessitates a change in population size. Migration may thus be viewed as a demographic response to the population’s need to reestablish a balance between its size and sustenance organization, thus attaining its best possible living standard. However, the levels of net in- or out-migration needed to restore the balance should be affected by the degree of positive or negative growth of the indigenous labor force population. We thus test the hypothesis that changes in opportunities for living will be balanced by net changes in the number of persons in the labor force, where this is a function of both indigenous labor supply and net migration.
Quantitative aspects of marriage, fertility and family limitation in nineteenth century America: Another application of the coale specifications
Authors: Sanderson Warren C.
Published: March 2007

This paper deals with three aspects of the decline in the fertility of white women in the United States from 1800 to 1920. The first concerns the portion of the secular decline in the total fertility rate which was due to changes in marriage rates and the portion due to decreases in marital fertility rates. The second concerns the fraction of couples in the nineteenth century who acted effectively to reduce their fertility and the third deals with the importance of abortion as a family-limiting practice among white couples in the nineteenth century.
Patterns of suburban population growth, 1970–75
Authors: Guest Avery M.
Published: March 2007

Population redistribution within U.S. suburban rings between 1970 and 1975 was characterized by frequent population declines for individual suburbs. On the whole, recent spatial patterns of suburban population decline are similar in nature, if not overall levels, to those found in the 1950s and 1960s. Population decline is greatest in the inner suburbs, and is also evident, to some extent, in the most peripheral suburbs. Patterns for all metropolitan areas mask clear variation among metropolitan areas. This variation is related to metropolitan age or historical period of development.
Population growth, life-cycle saving, and international differences in steady-state optimal saving rates
Authors: Conroy Michael E.
Published: March 2007

Life-cycle savings theories have been a seminal development in analyses of the relationship between rational savings patterns for individuals and the accumulation of wealth or capital at the level of the society as a whole. Applications of the theories in industrialized countries never investigated the significance of large differences in birth and death rates across societies. The strong demographic components of life-cycle saving analysis are here the center of focus. Illustrative general numerical applications of a modified version of the life-cycle approach suggest that mortality differentials comparable to those presently encountered among nations are consistent with very large differentials in steady-state optimal ratios of wealth-to-income. Specific application to Peru of the model estimated by Tobin for the United States indicates that high levels of mortality, current Peruvian birth rates, and Peruvian age-income profiles imply optimal rational savings rates far below those of the United States.
The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality
Authors: Vaupel James W. , Manton Kenneth G. , Stallard Eric
Published: March 2007

Life table methods are developed for populations whose members differ in their endowment for longevity. Unlike standard methods, which ignore such heterogeneity, these methods use different calculations to construct cohort, period, and individual life tables. The results imply that standard methods overestimate current life expectancy and potential gains in life expectancy from health and safety interventions, while underestimating rates of individual aging, past progress in reducing mortality, and mortality differentials between pairs of populations. Calculations based on Swedish mortality data suggest that these errors may be important, especially in old age.
Do couples make fertility plans one birth at a time?
Authors: Udry J. Richard
Published: March 2007

Criteria are specified for distinguishing one-decision from sequential-decision models of fertility. Sequential decisions are not demonstrated by parity-specific differences in fertility determinants. Sequential models must demonstrate the importance of unanticipated intervening events in changing fertility plans or fertility experience. They must demonstrate that the intervening events are not caused by the fertility. Two empirical tests are designed to determine which model best fits the data. One test predicts fertility plans, the other fertility events. Both tests provide some support for sequential models.
An analysis of variations in U. S. fertility and female labor force participation trends
Authors: Devaney Barbara
Published: March 2007

This study is based on time series data from 1947–1977 on fertility and female labor force participation, and examines (a) the effects of male relative income and female earnings on the level and timing of fertility and female labor force participation, and (b) the relative importance of variations in relative income and female wage rates in explaining the fluctuations in both fertility and female labor supply. The results suggest that relative income exerts a significant positive effect on fertility and a negative effect on female work effort. However, female wage rates appear to be the dominant factor in explaining variations in fertility and female labor force participation over the past two decades, with increases in female earnings leading to both depressed fertility and increased labor force participation of women.
Sex differences in life cycle measures of widowhood
Authors: Goldman Noreen , Lord Graham
Published: March 2007

Using formulas which measure life cycle characteristics of widowhood as a function of life table survivorship and age at marriage, we illustrate changes in patterns of widowhood and widowerhood since 1950, as well as differences by race, by age of bride and of groom, and by age differences between spouses. Although the current inequality in the risks of widowhood and widowerhood for the average couple is mostly due to sex differences in mortality, a one year age difference between spouses has about the same impact as does a one year difference in life expectancy. Calculations based on current distributions of age of groom by age of bride indicate that the older the age of groom, the greater the age difference between spouses and the higher the likelihood of a woman outliving her husband: the typical groom who marries in his fifties faces a 4 to 1 chance that he will be outlived by his spouse.
An integrated system for demographic estimation from two age distributions
Authors: Preston Samuel H.
Published: March 2007

This paper presents a simple method for estimating a birth rate and a level of mortality for an intercensal period. The birth rate is estimated from the intercept of a line fitted to data and the level of mortality from the slope of that line. The formula that is developed is based upon a recent generalization of stable population relations. An estimate of childhood mortality level is an optional but significant piece of additional input. An important by-product of the procedure is an estimate of the true age distribution.
A simple model for linking life tables by survival-mortality ratios
Authors: Mitra S.
Published: March 2007

Patterns of variation in mortality can be studied by measuring changes in selected life table functions. A model is proposed in which the rate of change over time in the life table survivorship probability at any age has been assumed as proportional to the product of its own value and its complementary probability or the probability of dying by that age, where the proportion is the same for all ages and depends only on the time duration between successive life tables. The end result is that the logit functions of the survivorship probabilities at two points in time are linearly related with a slope of one. The projecting power of the model has been tested by using U.S. life tables for the years 1950 and 1970 as well as Coale and Demeny's regional model life tables. In the latter case, the model produced surprisingly close matches even when the expectations of life differed by as much as 20 years.