Trends and Volatility of Exports to major Economies & China: Focusing on Southeast Asia, NAFTA, EU and China
Authors:   Asia-Europe Perspective Association, Choi Soo Ho 
Published: December 2024

Korea’s exports are increasing sharply in 2021, as well as existing filial products and sluggish items. Overcoming Corona 19, exports are recovering due to the global economic recovery, demand increase, price increase, and base effect. Therefore, intermediate goods such as semiconductors, automobiles, petroleum products, petrochemicals, steel, general machinery, and textiles are increasing significantly.
Korea’s exports showed a remarkable increase of 14.6% per year from 1970 to 2017. Korea’s export destinations increased from 108 in 1970 to 237 in 2017. Until now, Korea’s exports have been heavily weighted to China and the US. However, the risk of export volatility in Korea is increasing due to the THAAD conflict (China), the demand for revision of FTA & the steel quota (US) and the trade dispute between the US and China. Therefore, Korea is calling for diversification of export markets in the future.
Korea’s top ten export items were semiconductors, automobiles, petroleum products, automobile parts, flat panel displays, synthetic resins, marine structures, steel plates, wireless communication devices, and plastic products in 2019, accounting for 56.1% of the total exports. In the global export market, Korea (3.1%) ranks 7th after China (15.8%), the United States (8.8%), Germany (8.4%), the Netherlands (4.1%), Japan (3.9%), and Hong Kong (3.4%).
The purpose of this paper is to compare the trends and fluctuation rates of exports in the major economic sphere and China, and to analyze the synchronizing phenomenon and direction of progress. The research data was collected from the Korea Customs Service’s import and export trade statistics, and the analysis period used a total of 19 annual data from 2002 to 2020. In empirical analysis, numerical analysis, model analysis & index analysis were performed by calculating the changing rate compared to the previous year. Southeast Asia, NAFTA and EU were selected as major economic spheres, and China, which has a high proportion of Korea’s exports, was selected.
The proportion of exports of SUM (Southeast Asia+EU+NAFTA+China) in Korea’s total exports (KOREA) has recently increased significantly by nearly 80%. Mainly, exports to China and Southeast Asia appear to have increased significantly. Volatility in descriptive statistics is relatively stable in China and Southeast Asia, while large in EU and NAFTA. In the correlation analysis, both the correlation coefficients between the major economic sphere and China were high, showing a high level of correlation. In particular, the correlation coefficient was relatively higher in Southeast Asia and China for total exports.
In the regression analysis, the coefficient of coefficient was highest in Southeast Asia, NAFTA, China,and the EU in that order, and the corrected R-squared was 0.998, showing 99.8% explanatory power in the change in exports. All of the variables were statistically significant and were found to fluctuate independently of each other. As of 2002 (=100), the growth rate of exports was highest in order of China (558%), Southeast Asia (387%), Korea (315%), NAFTA (235%), and EU (201%). In particular, the rate of increase since 2010 was found to have increased significantly in China and Southeast Asia. The rate of change of the major economic sphere and China is moving similarly, it is analyzed that they are very close to each other.
In the Scatter Chart, SUM, Southeast Asia, NAFTA, EU, and China all show upwards in terms of total exports (X-axis), showing a very high level of synchronization phenomenon. In the Box Plot, Southeast Asia and China have long tails above the upper third quartile (75%), which means that the rate of increase has continued to be large. In SUM’s Hodrick-Prescott Filter, the overall trend of SUM has declined since 2002, showing a negative number for the first time in 2020, but Cycle is trying to rebound slightly from 2019 to a short-term low.