bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Rehearsing Disaster: Can Video Games Help Young Adults Prepare for Earthquakes?
Authors: Safran Elizabeth , Drake Peter , Nilsen Erik , Sebok Bryan , Ballesteros Blythe , Paris Annabel , Parezanin Lana , Pencl Ela , Wood Sarah , Kraus Jensen , Kunz Sylvia , Udas Max
Published: March 2022

The Pacific Northwest of the United States is subject to devastating earthquakes along the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) but lacks a strong “earthquake culture.” Among the least prepared residents are 18-29-year-olds, who are left out of traditional messaging that targets either heads of households or small children. Video games resonate with the media consumption habits of this age group and put earthquake preparedness in an engaging problem-solving context. We conducted an experiment with 125 residents of Portland, Oregon in this age group to compare learning and motivation to prepare for earthquakes following up to 45 minutes of video game play vs. web searching. Our video game was custom-made by undergraduate programmers and informed by consultation with regional emergency managers, playtesting, and two focus group discussions. In the game, the player assumes the identity of three different characters over four levels, dealing with earthquake-related challenges at three different times: the period immediately surrounding the earthquake, one day later, and one week later. Each type of problem – avoiding injury, finding safe shelter, obtaining clean water, and managing human waste – has at least three solutions in the game. Participants in the web search condition were allowed to browse at will and were also offered three starter links to emergency management websites that included, but were not limited to, the information embedded in the game. Surveys were administered before and after the experiment task as well as three months later to assess learning as well as self-reported self-efficacy, intent to act, and  steps taken to prepare for various earthquake-related challenges. Participants in the game condition chose to perform the task significantly longer than those in the web search condition (31 vs. 19 minutes, p = 0.001) and found it significantly more enjoyable but also more challenging and frustrating (p = 0.01, 0.001, and 0.03, respectively). Game players perceived encountering a much higher percentage of new information than did web searchers (64% vs 45%, p = 0.001), with equal levels of trust in, and perceived reliability and applicability of, the information learned. Reported increases in self-efficacy around obtaining clean water and managing bodily waste were significantly higher (p = 0.05, and 0.001 respectively) among game players than web searchers immediately following the task. After three months, self-reported steps taken to prepare increased significantly for six out of eight specific actions among both game players and web searchers. The experiment suggests that video games can be more engaging than relevant web content and also effective at moving young adults toward earthquake preparedness.
The November 2021 floods in British Columbia, Canada: observations, mechanisms and probabilities
Authors: Weijs Steven , Kovacek Daniel
Published: March 2022

In this presentation, some insights into the various contributing factors of the floods in southwestern British Columbia, Canada, will be shared. These floods followed a large atmospheric river event, combined with high antecedent soil moisture and rain on snow mechanisms. In some locations, including some that were affected by extensive wildfires in the preceding summer, estimated return periods of river flows during this event exceeded 2000 years. Various alternative estimations of this return period will be presented, conditional on various assumptions and side information  Due to the large scale disruption of infrastructure, this event is expected to be (one of) the costliest natural disaster in history for Canada. This presentation is informed both by probabilistic analysis of the various factors and anecdotal evidence based on an aerial reconnaissance of the flood affected area. 
Is equatorial Atlantic variability resurging?
Authors: Richter Ingo , Tokinaga Hiroki , Okumura Yuko , Keenlyside Noel
Published: March 2022

The equatorial Atlantic is subject to interannual variability that is centered in the eastern cold tongue region and is known as the Atlantic Zonal Mode (AZM). Previous studies have indicated that AZM variability has declined over the recent decades and this tendency is projected to continue based on climate change simulations. The period 2000 to mid-2019 was arguably most conspicuous in this regard, as it did not contain any major AZM event. In late 2019, however, the strongest event in more than 40 years developed. This was followed, in 2021, by an equally warm event. In the present work we examine the mechanisms behind these recent events. We show that while the accompanying wind stress forcing was strong, it cannot account for the exceptional strength of the two events. Analysis suggests that Ekman pumping north of the equator contributed to the strength of the events by generating downwelling Rossby waves that were reflected into downwelling Kelvin waves at the equator. In addition, an examination of observed sea-surface height and ocean temperature from reanalysis and PIRATA buoys suggests that there was a steady buildup of heat in the eastern equatorial region (20W-10E, 10S-5N) since about 2015. This excessive heat content was discharged during the 2019 and 2021 events and may have contributed to their exceptional strength. Our results highlight the need for a close monitoring of oceanic conditions in the region. This will not only have implications for seasonal prediction but also for the long-term development of AZM variability.
Exploration, utilization and monitoring of conventional and unconventional geothermal resources
Authors: Polat Berker , Wittig Volker , Boerner Jascha , Geissler Niklas , Krusenbaum Sebastian , Bunk Marian
Published: March 2022

Geothermal energy out of deep and thus, hot reservoirs do pose viable means to supply and well support the changeover to renewables and still increasing energy demand worldwide as it is virtually available everywhere 24/7, having a carbon neutral footprint and being so-called baseload capable. Therefore, application of enhanced geothermal and petrothermal systems do require the exploitation of such deep geothermal resources to provide more and better geothermal energy. The EU ZoDrEx project and consortium recently demonstrated that installation and exploitation of such geothermal resources can be done safely and economically. Fraunhofer IEG and project partners proved superb hydraulic improvement between wellbore and surrounding reservoir, via Fraunhofer´s high pressure jetting and milling operation, leading to subsequent, much improved reservoir flow by further micro well enhancing measures of Partner GES and others. A variety of high-pressure based water jet technologies for general mineral and rock weakening, erosion and destruction via ultra-short radius deviation were field tested in downhole operation to better connect main wellbore with surrounding reservoir through micro sidetracking and notching. The incorporation of these rock penetration type measures into a functional, downhole EGS system constituted the field work being done in ETH’s Bedretto Underground Laboratory with partners from the ZODREX consortium.
Three-dimensional numerical simulation of granular flow with a GPU-accelerated SPH model
Authors: Huang Can , Liu Qingquan , Wang Xiaoliang
Published: March 2022

A smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) has obtained wildly application to granular flow and soil failure problems in last two decades. The computational efficiency is limited by the number of particles, which makes it difficult for SPH to be applied to large-scale examples. In this study, we develop a three-dimensional SPH model based on Drucker–Prager closure with a non-associated plastic flow rule, which is accelerated by employing the GPU technology. A typical three-dimensional granular slope case is simulated with 44 million particles for 88.5 hours. GPU acceleration technology significantly improves the computing efficiency almost 200 times than single-core CPU for large scale geotechnical problems with more than 10 million SPH particles. Multiple shear bands are observed in this simulation, which reveal the failure mechanism of granular flow.
A spatially explicit approach for joint temperature-precipitation emulation of Earth System Model simulation
Authors: Schöngart Sarah , Lejeune Quentin , Schleußner Carl-Friedrich , Seneviratne Sonia , Gudmundsson Lukas , Beusch Lea
Published: March 2022

Earth System Models (ESMs) are essential for understanding the dynamics of our climate system, but their computational costs make nuanced investigations of future climatic conditions difficult. Using statistical techniques, computationally efficient tools known as emulators, which mimic ESM simulations, can be built. Emulators allow to (i) project the regional climate change for a broad variety of emission scenarios and to (ii) thoroughly sample the uncertainty space associated with natural variability as well as structural model uncertainties. Both tasks would be computationally infeasible with actual ESMs. In this contribution, we introduce a probabilistic, bivariate ESM emulation framework that produces joint monthly spatial fields of temperature and precipitation for a given global mean temperature trajectory. This contribution adds to the existing modular MESMER framework developed by Beusch et al. (2020). The building blocks of the new emulator are: (i) A module for approximating the annual global mean temperature trajectory from ESM output. This module is adapted from the existing MESMER framework. (ii) A module capturing the deterministic local response of monthly temperature and precipitation to global mean temperature. The response function is assumed to be linear with coefficients fitted independently for each month, grid-cell and variable. (iii) A module capturing the residual variability, that follows a probabilistic, non-parametric approach to reproduce spatial and temporal variance, covariance and cross-covariance structures of both variables. The emulator is trained and tested on ESM ensembles generated during CMIP6. Near-term development steps include the quantification of inter-ESM differences through the trained parameters and the coupling of the emulator to the simple climate model MAGICC (Meinshausen et al., 2020) to explore the emission scenario space.

 

Beusch, Lea, Lukas Gudmundsson, and Sonia I. Seneviratne. "Emulating Earth system model temperatures with MESMER: from global mean temperature trajectories to grid-point-level realizations on land." Earth System Dynamics 11.1 (2020): 139-159.

Meinshausen, Malte, et al. "The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500." Geoscientific Model Development 13.8 (2020): 3571-3605.

 
Contrasting hydrological regimes in two adjoining semi-arid areas, with low rain intensities 
Authors: Yair Aaron
Published: March 2022

The present study deals with the hydrology of two adjoining watersheds, located in an area where average annual rainfall is ~280 mm. One watershed is located in a loess covered area, and the second in a rocky area. Hydrological data collected in the loess area point to a very high frequency of channel flow. However, even in extreme rain events, peak discharges are extremely low, pointing to a limited contributing area. The explanation proposed is that runoff generation is limited to the channel area, where a quasi-permanent seal, very rich in dispersive clays, responds quickly to low rain intensities. The contribution of the adjoining hillslopes is negligible. The hydrological regime in the rocky area is opposite. The frequency of overland flow is very high. 
However, channel flow did not develop, even in an extreme rain event of 105 mm with peak rain intensities of 90 mm/h1 in 2 min. The hydrological dis-connectivity at the-hillslope-channel interface is explained by the local rainfall characteristics. Rainstorms are highly intermittent, and the concentration time required for a continuous flow, along a whole slope, is much longer than the duration of most effective intermittent rain showers. Data obtained limit the possibility of extrapolation hydrological data from one area to another, under the same rainfall regime.
Estimating rockfall release scenarios based on a straightforward rockfall frequency model
Authors: Moos Christine , Dorren Luuk , Jaboyedoff Michel , Hantz Didier
Published: March 2022

A realistic quantification of rockfall risk is crucial for an effective and efficient prevention of damages. The estimation of realistic block and event volumes as well as their release frequencies remain a major challenge and are often based on mere expert estimation. Based on the analysis of the rockfall frequency and volume of a wide range of rock cliffs, Hantz et al. (2020) proposed a power law based model for the determination of rockfall magnitude-frequency aiming at a more objective approach for practitioners. It assumes that both, the released masses of rockfall events as well as the individual blocks of a rockfall event follow a power law distribution. The parameters of these distributions are determined using a simple classification of rock structure in combination with field measurements of blocks. In this study, we applied and tested the proposed rockfall frequency model (RFM) at 8 different sites at 7 locations in the Swiss Alps. The calculated frequencies of rockfall events and the derived block volumes were compared to release scenarios of official hazard assessments as well as inventory data. Block volume distributions of all sites could be well fitted by power law distributions (fitted b values between 0.69 to 1.69). The rockfall event and block volumes are in a comparable range as the scenarios of the official hazard assessments, but generally slightly larger. The differences increase with the return period. For all sites, the parameter sensitivity of the RFM is relatively large, in particular for return periods of 100-300 years. Nevertheless, the method proposed in this study allows for a more objective and consistent estimation of rockfall scenarios and thus has the potential to substantially improve the mostly opaque determination of rockfall scenarios. The results further show that the block volume scenarios for pre-defined return periods strongly depend on the considered cliff size, which does not appear to be consistently taken into account in current hazard assessments. However, the study should be extended to additional sites and the parameter estimation has to be optimised to come up with a consistent and transparent method to estimate rockfall frequencies in practice.
Machine learning based estimation of regional Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) constrained by atmospheric inversions and ecosystem observations
Authors: Upton Samuel , Bastos Ana , Gans Fabian , Kraft Basil , Peters Wouter , Nelson Jacob , Walther Sophia , Jung Martin , Reichstein Markus
Published: March 2022

Accurate estimates and predictions of the global carbon fluxes are critical for our understanding of the global carbon cycle and climate change. Reducing the uncertainty of the terrestrial carbon sink and closing the budget imbalance between sources and sinks would improve our ability to accurately project future climate change. Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), the net flux of biogenic carbon from the land surface to the atmosphere, is only directly measured at a sparse set of globally distributed eddy-covariance measurement sites. To estimate the terrestrial carbon flux at the regional and global scale, a global gridded estimate of NEE must be accurately upscaled from a model trained at the ecosystem level. In this study, the Fluxcom system* is used to train a site-level model on remotely-sensed and meteorological variables derived from site measurements, MODIS and ECMWF ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data. The non-representative distribution of these site-level data along with missing disturbance histories impart known biases to current upscaling efforts. Observations of atmospheric carbon may provide important additional information, improving the accuracy of the upscaled flux estimate. 

This study adds an atmospheric observational operator to the model training process that connects the ecosystem-level flux model to top-down observations of atmospheric carbon by adding an additional term to the objective function. The target data are regionally integrated fluxes from an ensemble of atmospheric inversions corrected for fossil-fuel emissions and lateral fluxes.  Calculating the regionally integrated flux estimate at each training step is computationally infeasible. Our hypothesis is that the regional flux can be modeled with a limited set of points and that this sparse model preserves sufficient information about the phenomena to act as a constraint for the underlying ecosystem-level model, improving regional and global upscaled products.  Experimental results show improvements in the machine learning based regional estimates of NEE while preserving features such as the seasonal variability in the estimated flux.

 

*Jung, Martin, Christopher Schwalm, Mirco Migliavacca, Sophia Walther, Gustau Camps-Valls, Sujan Koirala, Peter Anthoni, et al. 2020. “Scaling Carbon Fluxes from Eddy Covariance Sites to Globe: Synthesis and Evaluation of the FLUXCOM Approach.” Biogeosciences 17 (5): 1343–65. 

 
Explainable community detection of extreme rainfall events using the tangles algorithmic framework
Authors: Kammer Merle , Strnad Felix , Goswami Bedartha
Published: March 2022

Climate networks have helped to uncover complex structures in climatic observables from large time series data sets. For instance, climate networks were used to reduce rainfall data to relevant patterns that can be linked to geophysical processes. However, the identification of regions that show similar behavior with respect to the timing and spatial distribution of extreme rainfall events (EREs) remains challenging. 
To address this, we apply a recently developed algorithmic framework based on tangles [1] to discover community structures in the spatial distribution of EREs and to obtain inherently interpretable communities as an output. First, we construct a climate network using time-delayed event synchronization and create a collection of cuts (bipartitions) from the EREs data. By using these cuts, the tangles algorithmic framework allows us to both exploit the climate network structure and incorporate prior knowledge from the data. Applying tangles enables us to create a hierarchical tree representation of communities including the likelihood that spatial locations belong to a community. Each tree layer can be associated to an underlying cut, thus making the division of different communities transparent. 
Applied to global precipitation data, we show that tangles is a promising tool to quantify community structures and to reveal underlying geophysical processes leading to these structures.

 

[1] S. Klepper, C. Elbracht, D. Fioravanti,  J. Kneip, L. Rendsburg, M. Teegen, and U. von Luxburg. Clustering with Tangles: Algorithmic Framework and Theoretical Guarantees. CoRR, abs/2006.14444v2, 2021. URL https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.14444v2.
Effects of crop growing season length adaptation on economic climate change impacts in the agricultural sector
Authors: Leclere David , Zabel Florian , Boere Esther , Janssens Charlotte
Published: March 2022

The effect of agronomic R&D and field-scale management decisions in response to climate change is only imperfectly modeled in both crop and agriculture sector models at global scale, contributing to the large uncertainty in future projections of climate change impacts on the agricultural sector. For example, the observed large diversity in the growing season length of individual crops across locations under present climate owes for a significant part to a choice of crop varieties adapted to local growing climate conditions, and mobilizing such a principle (adoption of alternative existing crop varieties in a location as growing conditions change, developement of new crop varieties better adapted to the changing growing conditions) could be a significant adaptation lever for agricultural systems under future climate change (e.g., Parent et al 2018). To date no global projection of the climate change impacts on the agricultural sector has included this effect, but global crop yield projections recently became available and indicated large potential impacts (e.g., Zabel et al 2021). In this study, we link the later projections to the GLOBIOM global agricultural sector model (Havlik et al 2014, Leclere et al 2014), and will present economic impacts on the agricultural sector while accounting for uncertainties associated to the extent to which existing and newly developed cultivar could be adopted, as well as to various GHG emission scenarios, climate models and crop models. 

References: Parent et al., 2018, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1720716115; Zabel et a., 2021, DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15649; Havlik et al, 2014, DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1308044111; Leclere et al, 2014, DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/12/124018
Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon: Influence of Well-resolved Stratosphere
Authors: Upadhyaya Pankaj , Mishra Saroj Kanta , Jain Shipra , Salunke Popat
Published: March 2022

The performance of sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction models, particularly outlining the role of the stratosphere in representing the surface climate viz. precipitation and temperature associated with the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), has been examined in this study. The hindcast data from two configurations of a fully coupled model part of the UK Met Office seasonal prediction system that differ only in vertical resolution namely Glosea4 L38 (GL38, Low Top) and Glosea4 L85 (GL85, High Top) have been used. In addition to this, the hindcast data from the updated version of the model i.e. Glosea5 (GL5) is also analyzed, which resembles the GL85 in case of vertical resolution thereby including an exclusively well-resolved stratosphere (unlike GL38) but with finer horizontal resolution than the later. It has been found that the GL85 is performing much better by eliminating the dry bias, particularly over the central Indian region as compared to the GL38 and GL5. The same implications are seen in the inter-annual variabilities produced by the models as GL85 is showing better results and closer to the observation in reproducing interannual variability of both precipitation and temperature. A large part of the inter-annual variations can be explained by the internal variability of the models but other important modes of inter-annual variability are also needed to explain the noted year-to-year fluctuations in these models.  The impact of resolving the stratosphere on the temperature is not significant, as both GL38 and GL85 are producing similar biases over the ISM domain, and overall GL5 is showing better results. Furthermore, the influence of resolving stratosphere in representing surface climate by two versions of a CMIP5 model, CMCC-CM (Low Top) and CMCC-CMS (High Top) is also examined, and the improvement has been observed in the case of the high top model. Moreover, the circulation associated with the ISM for the models has also been analyzed to relate the model performance in reproducing the precipitation. The Somali jet is stronger in the high-top models leading to more moisture transport and convergence over the Indian land. In contrast, the Somali jet is shifted southwards and weaker in low-top version leading to more rainfall over the equatorial Indian Ocean and relatively less over India. The increase in vertical resolution (from GL38 to GL85) yields good results in representing precipitation, however, the increase in horizontal resolution (from GL85 to GL5) keeping the vertical resolution same has not been useful as it leads to the drier bias over the region.

 

Keyword: sub-seasonal prediction to seasonal, hindcast, High Top/Low Top, Indian Summer Monsoon
Sub-seasonal to climatic hydrologic predictions for sustainable reservoir management in water-stressed Mediterranean basins
Authors: Koutroulis Aristeidis , Grillakis Manolis , Crippa Nicola , Yang Guang , Giuliani Matteo
Published: March 2022

Given the specific nature of the Mediterranean region, water scarcity and documented progressive degradation of groundwater quality poses hazardous environmental, economic and social threats to several Mediterranean countries, with a significantly increased risk of conflicts around the limited availability of water resources. These risks are expected to be further exaggerated with the projected climate drying. Due to continued changes in drivers and pressures, traditional management practices alone are no longer sufficient.

Recent advances in weather and climate modeling research are putting into practice hydroclimatic projections of timescales ranging from sub-seasonal to climatic. Seasonal forecasts can be used for triggering a variety of water management strategies, as for example activating early responses and decisions in order to make water systems more adaptive and resilient to the increasing variability and uncertainty of hydrologic regimes, ultimately facilitating the reduction of drought related risks.

In the premises of the STREAM project, we use projections at the climate timescale to estimate the long-term trends and the changes in the temporal and quantitative variability of the hydrologic conditions in the basin of the Faneromeni reservoir under two concentration scenarios, the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. The reservoir is located in Messara valley in Crete Island, Greece, an area highly water overexploited during the recent decades. We further use several seasonal forecast products provided under the umbrella of the Copernicus C3S programme, for a range of lead time horizons. Scenarios of water inflow and evaporation losses are used to inform the multi-objective operation design for the investigation of the impacts of alternative management policies. Our results are expected to improve the current practices used by the local practitioners for the management of water resources for sustainable water exploitation.

 

This work is supported by the STREAM project funded by the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation, grant number 2981 (www.streamflows.eu).
Reuse of dredged streambed sediments in agricultural fields: soil quality and weed risk assessment
Authors: Tanner Smadar , Laor yael , Matzrafi Maor , Egozi Roey
Published: March 2022

Many intensively cultivated areas suffer from soil losses, due to accelerated soil erosion processes, which eventually deposit in the stream channel. To prevent flood risks, the deposited sediments are routinely dredged from the streambed, and due to the lack of a cost-effective solution, piled upon the stream bank. Dredged sediments (DS) piles may disturb the ecological balance in the riparian habitat, serve as a reservoir for weed seeds and may enable the further establishment of invasive species. Studies have shown that DS tend to be richer in organic matter and plant nutrients compared to the adjacent local soil, thus DS might be used as amendments to agricultural fields. However, the seedbank in DS may contain harmful weed species that threaten farmers from applying this valuable soil. The main objective of the current study is to assess the quality of DS as an agronomic substrate and its potential risk for weed invasion and establishment in the agricultural environment in case of applying DS in agricultural fields. DS that were piled (0.6-1.2 m height) on the eastern bank of Nahalal stream (Jezre'el Valley, northern Israel) were sampled along the bank, from a section of 1 km in 10 transects at three depths (top, middle, bottom). The upper (0-20 cm) soil layer at the adjacent agricultural field (AF) was sampled in parallel to the DS transects and along the hillslope Catena. Soil properties analyses was conducted in order to assess the soil quality of DS compared with AF. The soil seedbank was recorded for DS and AF samples using a germination assay. Preliminary results shows that the quality of DS can fit agronomic requirements. However, a trend of increased species richness and seed density was observed in the DS compared with the AF samples. Future analysis will include the calculation of a soil quality index and a Weed Risk Factor in order to assess the potential risk of reusing DS in agricultural fields.  
A new approach to map the current and future global distribution of wildfires
Authors: Podebradska Marketa
Published: March 2022

Wildfires serve as an essential disturbance for many ecosystems representing a vital component of the Earth’s systems. On geological time scales wildfires have played an important role affecting Earth’s atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystems. Anthropogenic climate change causes shifts in weather and climate patterns that affect wildfire-related processes shaping the global distribution of wildfires. Globally, many regions are experiencing increases in wildfire frequency, large fire occurrence, severity, and their ecological consequences. Local evidence suggests that some areas that were historically “fire-resistant”, such as Central Europe, might become at risk to wildfires in the future due to increases in fire-conducive conditions and fuel aridity. Changes in the global distribution of fire-prone and fire-resistant areas can have far-reaching ecological and social consequences that are already being observed. However, understanding the global effect of climate change on the future fire dynamics remains to be challenging.

We present a new method that uses statistical modeling to globally map the current and future distribution of fire-prone and fire-resistant areas. This method is unique in that it uses a spatial intersection of the four main hierarchical fire components - accumulated biomass, its availability to burn, fire weather, and ignitions. These four components are then used in a statistical model to explain the susceptibility of a landscape to historical wildfire occurrence. Anthropogenic climate change will likely alter the global spatial distribution of these components, hence affecting the global distribution of fire-prone and fire-resistant areas. Data from global climate models and other ancillary datasets that represent the future global distribution of the four wildfire components will be used together with the statistical model wildfire occurrence to estimate the future global distribution of global “fire-prone” and “fire-resistant” areas. Findings of this research will lead to an improved monitoring and assessment of future global fire behavior and distribution which can contribute to a more sustainable coexistence of people with wildfires, especially in fire-prone regions.
Fracture network modelling of a potential high-level nuclear waste repository site
Authors: Tóth Emese , Hrabovszki Ervin , Félix Schubert , Tivadar M. Tóth
Published: March 2022

The potential host rock for the high-level nuclear waste repository of Hungary is the Boda Claystone Formation (BCF) located in SW Hungary, a homogeneous formation with a thickness of 1000 m. The BCF consists of well-compacted reddish-brown claystone, siltstone, and albitolite (authigenic albite >50%) with dolomite and sandstone intercalations. Fracture network modelling and hydrological assessment were performed in the BAF–2 well, which is over 900 m deep. The fracture network was modelled using a discrete fracture network (DFN) algorithm based on acoustic borehole televiewer (BHTV) images and core sample images. This modelling approach can be used to calculate the permeability and porosity of the fracture system if the hydrologic aperture of the fractures is known. Fracture aperture can be defined in several ways. In hydrodynamic processes, the hydraulic aperture should be used, which is defined as a theoretical conduit that produces the same flow rate as the real fracture. The hydraulic aperture was estimated using a calibration algorithm comparing the measured permeability values of the borehole to the modelled permeability values of the fracture system. Hydrological evaluation of the borehole was performed by calculating flow zone indices (FZI). This parameter is based on the covariation of porosity and permeability and is usually used to evaluate reservoir quality. FZI values denote hydraulic units within the rock column where the properties controlling flow are internally uniform. Based on the geometry of the fracture network and hydraulic flow units, most parts of the well behave uniformly, while three narrow zones exhibit different hydrologic characteristics. The first zone is located in the upper 100 m of the well and is likely formed by weathering and diagenetic processes. The second zone is at about 400 m, where a large-scale structural boundary is suspected. In the third zone at 700 m, coarsening of the host rock strongly affects the hydrological properties, but the influence of tectonic processes cannot be excluded either.
South Atlantic deep-sea temperature evolution across the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition from clumped isotope thermometry
Authors: Domínguez Valdés Elena , Kocken Ilja , Agterhuis Tobias , Müller Inigo , Bode Noa , Kroon Dirk , Lourens Lucas , Ziegler Martin
Published: March 2022

The reconstruction of deep-ocean temperatures is key in the study of the different climate states in the geological past. Reconstructions covering the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition shed light on the global climatic change that followed the mid-Pliocene warm period and culminated in full glaciation of the Northern Hemisphere.

Global δ18O records measured on seafloor dwelling foraminifera constitute the backbone of our understanding of the climatic trends and transitions of the last 65 million years [1,2]. These records suggest that the glacial intensification over the last 2.8 Ma experienced the onset of Quaternary-style ice age cycles and the progression towards a more deterministic climate system increasingly sensitive to orbital forcings. Deep-sea temperature variability across this time is thought to have stayed in a 4ºC range with near-freezing temperatures occurring at every glacial maximum, especially after the Mid-Pleistocene transition [2,3]. However, temperature signals based on carbonate δ18O data are built upon uncertain assumptions of non-thermal factors such as those regarding the isotopic composition of the ancient seawater.

Carbonate clumped thermometry (𝛥47) is based on thermodynamic principles that determine the ordering of isotopes within the carbonate crystal lattice [4]. It is independent of the fluid composition. 𝛥47 thermometry has recently been used to anchor Mg/Ca records of the Miocene while revealing a comparatively warm deep ocean [5].

Here we present 𝛥47-based deep-sea temperature constraints across the Pliocene-Pleistocene transition obtained from benthic foraminifera of ODP Site 1264 in the South Atlantic Ocean. In combination with benthic δ18O analyses, we furthermore interpret our measurements into global ice volume and ocean circulation changes in the Atlantic Basin across the major onset of the Northern Hemisphere Glaciation.

[1] Zachos, J., et al. (2001), Science 292, 686-693.

[2] Westerhold, T., et al. (2020), Science, 369, 1383–1387,

[3] Elderfield, H., et al. (2012) Science, 337(6095), 704-709.

[4] Eiler, J.M. (2007), Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 262, 309-327.

[5] Modestou, S. E., et al. (2020) Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 35, e2020PA003927.
Size distribution of emitted dust in Morocco
Authors: González-Flórez Cristina , Klose Martina , Alastuey Andrés , Dupont Sylvain , Etyemezian Vic , González-Romero Adolfo , Kandler Konrad , Nikolich George , Pandolfi Marco , Panta Agnesh , Querol Xavier , Reche Cristina , Yus-Díez Jesús , Pérez García-Pando Carlos
Published: March 2022

Atmospheric mineral dust constitutes one of the most important aerosols in terms of mass in the global atmosphere. Dust impacts on the Earth’s climate are closely related to its physical and chemical properties, i.e. its particle size distribution (PSD), mineralogical composition, particle shape, and mixing state. Despite the knowledge acquired on dust properties over the last decades, understanding of dust particle size and composition at emission is still incomplete, partly due to the scarcity of coincident PSD measurements for emitted dust and the parent soil. In this context, the ERC project FRAGMENT (FRontiers in dust minerAloGical coMposition and its Effects upoN climaTe) conducts dust field campaigns in different regions of the world, obtaining a detailed characterization of the soil, airborne particles and meteorology. The first measurement campaign took place in September 2019 at “El Bour”, a dry lake located in the Draa River Basin at the edge of the Sahara desert in Morocco.

Here, we provide an overview of the atmospheric conditions, the dynamical parameters characterizing the structure of the near-surface boundary layer and the wind erosion events of varying intensity that occurred during the measurement period. We explore the temporal variability of: (1) the size-resolved dust concentrations measured by two optical particle counters placed at 1.8 and 3.5 m height, (2) the associated diffusive dust flux calculated through the gradient method, (3) the measured saltation flux and (4) the sandblasting efficiency. We also evaluate the relationships of these variables with friction velocity and atmospheric stability. Finally, we analyse the PSDs of emitted dust concentrations and diffusive flux, and investigate their variability under different meteorological conditions.
Stochastic modeling of coupled human-water networked communities
Authors: Bertassello Leonardo Enrico , Bolster Diogo , Müller Marc
Published: March 2022

Water is a resource shared at many spatial and temporal scales, and humans simultaneously influence and are influenced by the availability of water resources to support life and economic activity. The spatial pattern of human settlements is thus affected by landscape heterogeneity and resource availability, with river networks playing a fundamental role in enabling access and mobility. On the one hand, trade and migration routes have been established since ancient times to increase the connectivity among human settlements and therefore allocating resources where they are most needed (or demanded). On the other hand, excessive connectivity can also introduce inter-dependence between population centres, which can ultimately decrease their resilience: their ability to bounce back from an exogenous (e.g., climatic) shock. In this perspective, interactions between spatiotemporal variability in climate and human connectivity (migration and trade) may have not only played a role in the rise and fall of several ancient civilizations, but can still affect the distribution of human settlements across watersheds. Here, we seek to understand the mechanisms through which trade and migration fluxes, and the policies that influence them, may affect the fundamental ability of interconnected communities to cope with climate shocks and sustain a population. To this aim, we developed a stochastic predator-prey model to represent the complex relation between population growth and water resources across multiple predetermined networks of neutral communities. Our model embraces the endogenous nature of human connectivity as an emergent process that arises from numerous independent and self- optimizing agent decisions at individual nodes, and overlays an exogenously determined physical network (e.g., river system). The main novelty of our approach consists in developing a tractable socio-environmental spatially explicit model to capture the critical effect of landscape heterogeneity and (water)resources distribution. The proposed framework can help in developing policies for ensuring availability and sustainable management of water resources under conditions of variability and has potentially applications in a wide variety of settings including natural resources extraction, disease dynamics and climate change policy.
Modelling of Compound Drought-Temperature Extreme Event Framework: A Multi-Decadal Perspective
Authors: Swain Sushree Swagatika , Mishra Ashok , Chatterjee Chandranath
Published: March 2022

Compound events are the extreme weather and climate events that result from a combination of physical processes (climatic drivers and extreme events) occurring across different temporal (successive) and spatial (simultaneous) scales. Further, multiple drivers with a complex chain of processes, conditional dependencies and extreme return periods of such events lead to severe socio-economic and environmental impacts. The quantification and predictions of such extreme events still need to be advanced with changing climate and global warming. In previous literature, it is documented that precipitation and temperature are the fundamental drivers of different climatic variations resulting in compound extreme events. In light of these perspectives, a Standardized Compound Extreme Event Index (SCEEI) is modelled in this study integrating the joint properties of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Temperature Index (STI) that are derived from precipitation and temperature; respectively employing the India Meteorological Department (IMD) data series. The Gaussian model-based multivariate technique is applied to derive SCEEI. The severity of drought and extreme temperature at an annual scale is analysed using SCEEI for two neighbouring river basins of Eastern India, i.e. Brahmani and Baitarani river basins for the study period of 1979-2018. The variations of the extreme events and their severity are further assessed at a multi-decadal scale. The trends of these compound events for different time scales are checked by the Mann-Kendall test followed by Sen’s slope estimator. The multi-decadal time scale is divided as D1 (1979-1988), D2 (1989-1998), D3 (1999-2008), and D4 (2009-2018). It is observed that SCEEI captures drought events along with extreme temperatures reasonably well than the individual index (SPI and STI). The outcomes of this study conclude that the multivariate approach is a reliable perspective to assess the severity of compound extreme events. The developed approach in this study is novel for monitoring the compound extreme event severity under the non-availability basin-scale hydrological data that is advantageous for several worldwide data scare river basins to purpose an adaptation strategy and achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Keywords: Compound events; SCEEI; IMD; multi-decadal; Brahmani; Baitarani; SDGs
Estimation of temporal seismic velocity changes associated with the 2008 Mt. Etna eruption from ambient noise cross-correlation
Authors: Büyükakpınar Pınar , Cannata Andrea , Cannavò Flavio , S. M. De Plaen Raphael , Di Grazia Giuseppe , Lecocq Thomas
Published: March 2022

On 13 May 2008, a strong eruption took place along a fracture opened on Mt. Etna's eastern ﬂank accompanied by significant seismic activity. Recent studies show that seismic ambient noise is an effective method to observe the fluctuations of seismic wave velocities due to volcanic and seismic activities. In this study, we analyze the temporal seismic velocity changes (dv/v) from January 2007 to June 2008 at Mt. Etna by using seismic ambient noise. We retrieve a large dataset to calculate dv/v because of the large number of permanent seismic stations located at Mt. Etna. Daily cross-correlation functions (CCFs) are computed at 15 stations for 105 interstation pairs in the 1-2 Hz frequency band by using vertical components. We observe that the dv/v displays a gradual reduction and reaches down to -0.3% associated with the aforementioned volcanic activity. We compared our results with volcano-tectonic earthquakes and volcanic tremor. Our study shows a significant relationship between the magma intrusion and decrease of the dv/v.
Biodiversity mediates human-environment interactions in deltas
Authors: Reader Martin O. , Eppinga Maarten B. , de Boer Hugo J. , Petchey Owen , Damm Alexander , Santos Maria J.
Published: March 2022

River and sea ecosystem services contribute to the rapid and intensive development of delta social-ecological systems. This development, alongside other global change drivers, threatens the biodiversity of these deltas and in turn the ecosystem services that this biodiversity supports. However, biodiversity can itself mediate anthropogenic impacts by increasing ecosystem resilience. Linkages between biodiversity and ecosystem services are increasingly established, but we lack understanding of whether the mediating effects of biodiversity are global and ubiquitous, and whether they mediate global change drivers in deltas.

Here, we examine the potential for biodiversity to mediate the relationships between five anthropogenic indicators and global change drivers (population, infrastructure, land use change, climate change in temperature and precipitation) and 19 ecosystem properties and services. We assess these relationships across a global dataset of 235 large deltas. We find that in 89% of cases, greater biodiversity (species richness and the intactness of biodiversity) is connected to a weakened or reversed association between anthropogenic drivers and ecosystem services. Such weaker or reversed associations were found across different ecosystem services (e.g. food production, carbon sequestration, soil regulation), most commonly with climate change and population.

We then investigated the contribution of biodiversity and abiotic and anthropogenic drivers to delta ecosystem service supply. Ecosystem service supply was most strongly and consistently associated with abiotic drivers (mostly climatic), but biodiversity and anthropogenic drivers were also important to individual services (productivity and crop-related services respectively). Deltas showed fewer than expected associations between biotic, abiotic and anthropogenic indicators and ecosystem services, yet weakened or reversed associations were more frequent than in other social-ecological systems. Our results empirically show how biodiversity can both act as a resource and mediate social-ecological relationships, but that both of these roles could be compromised as deltas become more modified.
Naturally Occurring Asbestos (NOA) in sediments: state of the art and perspectives
Authors: Barale Luca , Avataneo Chiara , Compagnoni Roberto , Cossio Roberto , d'Atri Anna , Gomiero Cecilia , Piana Fabrizio , Turci Francesco
Published: March 2022

Studies on naturally occurring asbestos (NOA) and on the relevant geo-environmental problems have been traditionally focused on metamorphic rocks (and, more recently, on magmatic rocks). Besides these 'primary' occurrences (i.e., those realted to the in situ growth of NOA minerals), 'secondary', detrital NOA may occurr in sediments, sedimentary rocks and soils derived form the erosion of 'primary' NOA bearing rocks.
The occurrence of detrital NOA in sediments and soils is increasingly recognized worldwide. However, a few studies exist that investigate the 'sedimentology of NOA', i.e., the mechanisms underlying the genesis, transport, deposition and post-depositional modifications of detrital NOA particles in the different sedimentary environments. A better understanding of these mechanisms would give us the tools to predict the presence and possible concentration of detrital NOA in sediments and sedimentary rocks.
The occurrence and distribution of detrital NOA within the Oligocene-Miocene succession of the southern Tertiary Piemonte Basin (NW Italy), will be investigated as a scientific development in the frame of the CARG project (Geological Mapping at 1:50,000 scale - sheet 195 Novi Ligure). This succession consists of stratigraphic units rich in ophiolite clasts and deposited in a variety of sedimentary environments, from continental to deep marine, thus representing an ideal study case. 