Preoperative and postoperative predictors of long-term outcome after endovascular treatment of poor-grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage
Authors: Zhao Bing , Yang Hua , Zheng Kuang , Li Zequn , Xiong Ye , Tan Xianxi , Zhong Ming , _ _ 
Published: July 2016

OBJECTIVE

An increasing number of patients with poor-grade aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH) have received endovascular treatment. Endovascular treatment of poor-grade aSAH, however, is based on single-center retrospective studies, and predictors of long-term outcome have not been well defined. Using results from a multicenter prospective registry, the authors aimed to develop preoperative and postoperative prognostic models to predict poor outcome after endovascular treatment of poor-grade aSAH.

METHODS

A Multicenter Poor-grade Aneurysm Study (AMPAS) was a prospective and observational registry of consecutive patients with poor-grade aSAH. From October 2010 to March 2012, 366 patients were enrolled in the registry, and 136 patients receiving endovascular treatment were included in this study. Outcome was assessed by modified Rankin Scale (mRS) score at 12 months, and poor outcome was defined as an mRS score of 4, 5, or 6. Prognostic models were developed in multivariate logistic regression models. The area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was used to assess the model's discriminatory ability, and Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit tests were used to assess the calibration.

RESULTS

At 12 months, 64 patients (47.0%) had a poor outcome: 9 (6.6%) had an mRS score of 4, 6 (4.4%) had an mRS score of 5, and 49 (36.0%) had died. Univariate analyses showed that older age (p = 0.001), female sex (p = 0.044), lower Glasgow Coma Scale score (p < 0.001), a World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) grade of V (p < 0.001), higher Fisher grade (p < 0.001), modified Fisher grade (p < 0.001), and wider neck aneurysm (p = 0.026) were associated with a poor outcome. There was a trend toward a worse outcome in patients with anterior communicating artery aneurysms (p = 0.080) and in those with incompletely occluded aneurysms (p = 0.063). After endovascular treatment, the presence of cerebral infarction (p = 0.039), symptomatic vasospasm (p = 0.039), and pneumonia (p = 0.006) were associated with a poor outcome. Multivariate analyses showed that the preoperative prognostic model including age, a WFNS grade of V, modified Fisher grade, and aneurysm neck size had excellent discrimination with an AUC of 0.86 (95% CI 0.80–0.92, p < 0.001), and a postoperative model that included these predictors as well as postoperative pneumonia had excellent discrimination (AUC = 0.87, 95% CI 0.81–0.93, p < 0.001). Both models had good calibration (p = 0.941 and p = 0.653, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Older age, WFNS Grade V, higher modified Fisher grade, wider neck aneurysm, and postoperative pneumonia were independent predictors of poor outcome after endovascular treatment of poor-grade aSAH. The preoperative model had almost the same discrimination as the postoperative model. Endovascular treatment should be carefully considered in patients with poor-grade aSAH with ruptured wide-neck aneurysms.

▪ CLASSIFICATION OF EVIDENCE Type of question: prognostic; study design: retrospective cohort trial; evidence: Class I.