bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Type 2 Diabetes in the Real World: The Elusive Nature of Glycemic Control
Authors: Edelman Steven V. , Polonsky William H.
Published: August 2017

Despite U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval of over 40 new treatment options for type 2 diabetes since 2005, the latest data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey show that the proportion of patients achieving glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) <7.0% (<53 mmol/mol) remains around 50%, with a negligible decline between the periods 2003–2006 and 2011–2014. The Healthcare Effectiveness Data and Information Set reports even more alarming rates, with only about 40% and 30% of patients achieving HbA1c <7.0% (<53 mmol/mol) in the commercially insured (HMO) and Medicaid populations, respectively, again with virtually no change over the past decade. A recent retrospective cohort study using a large U.S. claims database explored why clinical outcomes are not keeping pace with the availability of new treatment options. The study found that HbA1c reductions fell far short of those reported in randomized clinical trials (RCTs), with poor medication adherence emerging as the key driver behind the disconnect. In this Perspective, we examine the implications of these findings in conjunction with other data to highlight the discrepancy between RCT findings and the real world, all pointing toward the underrealized promise of FDA-approved therapies and the critical importance of medication adherence. While poor medication adherence is not a new issue, it has yet to be effectively addressed in clinical practice—often, we suspect, because it goes unrecognized. To support the busy health care professional, innovative approaches are sorely needed.
Understanding the Gap Between Efficacy in Randomized Controlled Trials and Effectiveness in Real-World Use of GLP-1 RA and DPP-4 Therapies in Patients With Type 2 Diabetes
Authors: Carls Ginger S. , Tuttle Edward , Tan Ruo-Ding , Huynh Johnny , Yee John , Edelman Steven V. , Polonsky William H.
Published: August 2017

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to estimate and explain the gap between clinical efficacy and real-world (RW) effectiveness of type 2 diabetes medications.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This mixed-methods quasi-experimental study used retrospective claims (Optum/Humedica) to compare the change in HbA1c of RW patients with type 2 diabetes 12 months after starting a glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1 RA) or dipeptidyl peptidase 4 (DPP-4) inhibitor with published findings from randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating these drugs. Selected RW patients were similar to RCT patients, and regression analysis was used in the RW data to adjust for differences between poorly adherent and adherent patients to explain why RCT and RW findings may differ.

RESULTS

RW patients initiating a GLP-1 RA (n = 221) or a DPP-4 (n = 652) experienced smaller reductions in HbA1c (GLP-1 RA: −0.52% [−6 mmol/mol], DPP-4: −0.51% [−6 mmol/mol])than reported in RCTs (−1.30% [−14 mmol/mol] from seven GLP-1 RA RCTs, n = 2,600; −0.68% [−8 mmol/mol] from four DPP-4 RCTs, n = 1,889). Baseline HbA1c, additional medications, and adherence were significant explanatory factors in the RW HbA1c change. Modeled estimates of RCT efficacy (−1.04% GLP-1 RA [−12 mmol/mol], −0.69% DPP-4 [−8 mmol/mol]) were within the RCTs’ reported range (GLP-1 RA: −0.84% to −1.60% [−9 to −18 mmol/mol], DPP-4: −0.47% to −0.90% [−5 to −10 mmol/mol]). Poor medication adherence accounted for approximately three-fourths of the gap between RW and expected RCT results (gap = 0.51% [6 mmol/mol] GLP-1 RA; 0.18% [3 mmol/mol] DPP-4).

CONCLUSIONS

Poor medication adherence is primarily why RW effectiveness is significantly less than RCT efficacy, suggesting an urgent need to effectively address adherence among patients with type 2 diabetes.
Experimental Investigation of the Influence of Penstock Configuration and Angle of Twist of Flat Blades on the Performance of a Simplified Pico-Hydro System
Authors: Edeoja Alex Okibe , Awuniji Linus
Published: August 2017

The effects of penstock configuration and lateral twist angle of the flat blades on the performance of a simplified Pico hydro system were examined as part of an ongoing development. Two configurations of the penstock having 2 and 1 stages of area reductions from 3 to 2 inches and 3 to 2 inches within the lower 1 m of their total height were used. Turbine runners with flat blades laterally twisted at angles of 30, 45, 60, 75 and 90° were fabricated locally and the system performance studied. The speed of rotation of the alternator and turbine shafts were measured and the available fluid power, flow rate and net head were computed. The results show that the 90° blade twist gave the best performance of the simplified system in terms of rotational speed and consequently power for both penstock configurations while the 30° twist yielded the least values of the parameters. However, the respective values for the 1st configuration were relatively higher for all the twist angles used. The maximum values of the parameters obtained for the 2-stage area reduction were 1844.7 rpm and 3636 W while the corresponding values for the other configuration were 1810.6 rpm and 2422 W The simplicity of the flat blade configuration coupled with the system performance for the entire blade twist angles indicates good promise for the implementation of the system for generation of clean, decentralized energy in line with current global trends even in locations without naturally flowing water.
Performance of Ternary Class F Pulverised Fuel Ash and Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag Concrete in Sulfate Solutions
Authors: Ahmed Ash , Kamau John
Published: August 2017

Durability of concrete is defined as its ability to resist deterioration after it has been exposed to the environment of its intended use. This work examined the performance of combined (ternary) Pulverised Fuel Ash (PFA) and Ground Granulated Blast Furnace Slag (GGBS) concrete in sulfate solutions of sodium sulfate (Na2SO4), magnesium sulfate (MgSO4) and mixed Na2SO4 and MgSO4, as well as its performance in water absorption. Investigations were carried out on replacements that were found to have achieved the highest compressive strengths as well as on 30% replacements from a previous study. From the results obtained, it was also found that at highest compressive strengths, the ternary concrete could be used with an advantage over the individual binary concretes in MgSO4 environments, whereas at a higher replacement, the ternary concrete could be used with an advantage over individual binary specimens in Na2SO4 and MgSO4 environments. For visual observations, it was concluded that the ternary concrete could be used with an advantage over the individual binary concretes in Na2SO4 and MgSO4 environments, whereas for strength deterioration, the results showed that the ternary specimens could be used with an advantage over individual binary concretes in both the MgSO4 and the mixed sulfate solutions. Generally, the ternary specimens showed some complimentary effect from the two materials.
Risk of Chickpea (Cicer Arietinum L.) Contamination by Risk Metals from the Soil of Iraq
Authors: Ismael Dalaram S. , Vollmannová Alena , Musilová Janette , Timoracká Mária
Published: August 2017

The aim was to evaluate the influence of the grown locality on risky metal intake from the soil to the chickpea seeds. The research was realised in three different localities of Iraq (Harer, Erbil, Ankawa) using the same chicpea cultivar. In all soil samples the determined total content of Co, Ni, Cr, and Cd exceeded the limit values (by 45% - 87%, 196% - 302%, 57% - 132% and 500% - 810%, respectively). In one locality (Harer) also the Cu content by 2% exceeded maximal allowed value given by the legislative. In all sample sites also the maximal available soil content of mobile Pb forms was by 5% - 265% exceeded. Despite of extremely high soil contents of Co, Ni, and Cr the investigated chickpea seeds are from the point of these risky metal contamination  safe. All determined values of heavy metal contents are lower than hygienic limits. Only Cd and Pb amounts in seeds of chickpea from Iraq exceeded the limit value given by legislative. Based on our results we could suppose that chickpea can be risky food if it is grown in the soil with enhanced amounts of Pb and Cd.
Global Warming: Preventing Irreversibility
Authors: Lane Jan Erik
Published: August 2017

When the UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change) meets again in Bonn for the COP23 (the Conference of the Parties 23) in the fall with Fiji as host, the focus should be upon the GOAL II in the COP21 (the Conference of the Parties 21) Treaty: decarbonisation with 30-40 per cent of 2005 levels until 2030. Several countries now meet the GOAL I of halting the rise in CO2 emissions. And the rest should be asked and helped to do so. But the GOAL II is a very big challenge. It can only be fulfilled with massive investments in solar panel parks.
Thermal Properties of UPE-PMMA Blend Reinforced by ZnO Nanoparticles
Authors: Farhan Fadhil K. , Al-Ramadhan Zainab , Abd-Al Hussein Widad A.
Published: August 2017

In this study, thermal analysis properties (Heat Transfer) have been studied for UPE-PMMA polymer blend reinforced with x-ZnO where x is (0wt%, 1wt%, 2wt%, 3wt%, 4wt% and 5wt %). Ultrasonic dispersion technique used to prepare the nanocomposites specimens follow with cold casting technique using Teflon molds at standard conditions. C - Thermosensor (TC i) technique was used to measure the heat transfer properties such as; (thermal conductivity, thermal effusivity, thermal diffusivity, heat capacity and thermal resistance). Results show that the values of conductivity, effusivity and diffusivity are increased by succession of weight percentage of fillers. While a heat capacity and thermal resistance results show that the values are decreased progressively by succession of weight percentage of fillers. Scanning electron microscopy was employed to aid interpretation results of thermal analyzer and to show the distribution of nanoparticles in polymer matrix.
A problematização como estratégia de ensino sobre a violência na infância: relato de experiência
Authors: Cerântola Siqueira Fernanda Paula , Siqueira Junior Antonio Carlos , Cruz Faccioli Stela , Rocha Camargo Marília Ribeiro da , Simões Pereira Ana Carolina , Silva Ana Paula da , Silveira Coelho Carine , Yukari Cheno Maysa
Published: August 2017

Este estudo teve como objetivo descrever a experiência vivenciada por estudantes que desenvolveram a Unidade de Prática Profissional na Área de Cuidado à Criança hospitalizada e que atenderam casos sugestivos de violência na infância. Como método optou-se pelo relato de experiência vivenciado por estudantes do Curso de Enfermagem da Faculdade de Medicina de Marília/SP - FAMEMA, que cursaram a terceira série, a qual utiliza a problematização como método de ensino. O referido curso adota o currículo integrado e orientado por competência na abordagem dialógica, que favorece a articulação entre a prática e a teoria. Este estudo a partir de situações reais de aprendizagem possibilitou ao estudante refletir sobre a prática vivenciada e cuidar de forma ampliada no cenário real, por buscar fundamentar as ações de proteção à criança vítima de maus tratos, bem como compreender o contexto do qual estava inserida.
Terapia trombolítica no iam: uma revisão da literatura
Authors: Alves dos Santos Carlos
Published: August 2017

O infarto agudo do miocárdio (IAM) é causado pela obstrução de uma ou de ambas as artérias coronárias por uma placa de ateroma. Quando isso ocorre em algumas circunstâncias é necessário instituir a terapia trombolítica, que consiste na administração de um fármaco que dissolve essa placa. O objetivo deste estudo foi investigar o papel do enfermeiro na terapia trombolítica diante do IAM. Tratou-se de um trabalho de revisão da literatura. Para isso, utilizou-se como fonte de pesquisa o site de busca da BIREME (Biblioteca Regional de Medicina). Do universo de 15 artigos, observou-se que 6 artigos mencionavam de forma indireta o papel do enfermeiro na terapia trombolítica e apenas 1 artigo citava os cuidados de enfermagem. Notou-se que o papel do enfermeiro vai além dos cuidados de enfermagem descritos nos livros de enfermagem.
Doação de órgãos e tecidos para transplante: contribuições teóricas
Authors: Araujo Nogueira Maicon de , Mendonça Flexa Joana Kátia de , Reis Montelo Itamar , Souza Lima Lorena de , Oliveira Maciel Danielle , Margareth Moita Sá Antônia
Published: August 2017

Este estudo, de revisão bibliográfica, objetivou tecer considerações teóricas relacionadas ao processo de doação de órgãos e tecidos para transplante no Brasil. A fonte de informação foi composta por publicações relevantes da Associação Brasileira de Transplantes de Órgãos, bem como artigos encontrados em bases de dados latino e americanas, além da legislação vigente. O aumento da taxa de doação depende de um olhar amplo e sistemático acerca das questões técnicas e legais inerentes ao processo de doação. Para o fortalecimento desse processo recomenda-se incorporar a abordagem social e a perspectiva ética, baseadas no entendimento técnico e legal e no respeito ao direito de autonomia dos potenciais doadores e seus familiares. As ações que asseguram um manejo ético-legal pressupõem compromisso com a qualidade e segurança do processo de doação, que deve ser rigorosamente perseguida pelos profissionais nesse contexto.
PERHITUNGAN DANA PENSIUN DENGAN METODE PROJECTED UNIT CREDIT DAN INDIVIDUAL LEVEL PREMIUM
Authors: KUSUMA WARDHANI I GUSTI AYU KOMANG , WIDANA I NYOMAN , TASTRAWATI NI KETUT TARI
Published: August 2017

The company which provides the pension program needs the actuarial valuation to estimate the fund amount required by the company to pay for pension funding. Actuarial method that used in this research are projected unit credit and invidual level premium method. Through this research be obtained the result of valuation pension benefits with career average salary assumption is lower than the other salary assumptions. On the other hand, the result of normal cost final value valuation using individual level premium method is smaller than projected unit credit method that suits for the participants of the pension funding program.
PERLUASAN REGRESI COX DENGAN PENAMBAHAN PEUBAH TERIKAT-WAKTU
Authors: DEWIYANTI LUH PUTU ARI , SUCIPTAWATI NI LUH PUTU , SUMARJAYA I WAYAN
Published: August 2017

The aim of this study is to model job hunting period in Bali in 2012 using Extended Cox model. Previous study concluded that household status and age variables were not significantly influenced the job hunting period. However, previous study on factors that influence job waiting suggests that both variables should play important role in determining the waiting time for job hunters. Thus incorporating time-dependent covariates into model is necessary. After incorporating time-dependent covariates we found that age with time-dependent covariate is significant.
ANALISIS SENTIMEN MENGGUNAKAN METODE NAÏVE BAYES CLASSIFIER DENGAN SELEKSI FITUR CHI SQUARE
Authors: LING JUEN , N. KENCANA I PUTU EKA , OKA TJOKORDA BAGUS
Published: August 2017

Sentiment analysis is the computational study of opinions, sentiments, and emotions expressed in texts. The basic task of sentiment analysis is to classify the polarity of the existing texts in documents, sentences, or opinions. Polarity has meaning if there is text in the document, sentence, or the opinion has a positive or negative aspect. In this study, classification of the polarity in sentiment analysis using machine learning techniques, that is Naïve Bayes classifier. Criteria for text classification decisions, learned automatically from learning the data. The need for manual classification is still required because training the data derived from manually labeling, the label (feature) refers to the process of adding a description of each data according to its category. In the process of labeling, feature selection is used and performed by chi-square feature selection, to reduce the disturbance (noise) in the classification. The results showed that the frequency of occurrences of the expected features in the true category and in the false category have an important role in the chi-square feature selection. Then classification breaking news by Naïve Bayes classifier obtained an accuracy of 83% and a harmonic average of 90.713%.
KOMPARASI KINERJA FUZZY TIME SERIES DENGAN MODEL RANTAI MARKOV DALAM MERAMALKAN PRODUK DOMESTIK REGIONAL BRUTO BALI
Authors: ANTARA I MADE ARYA , N. KENCANA I PUTU EKA , SUKARSA I KOMANG GDE
Published: August 2017

This paper aimed to elaborates and compares the performance of Fuzzy Time Series (FTS) model with Markov Chain (MC) model in forecasting the Gross Regional Domestic Product (GDRP) of Bali Province.  Both methods were considered as forecasting methods in soft modeling domain.  The data used was quarterly data of Bali’s GDRP for year 1992 through 2013 from Indonesian Bureau of Statistic at Denpasar Office.  Inspite of using the original data, rate of change from two consecutive quarters was used to model. From the in-sample forecasting conducted, we got the Average Forecas­ting Error Rate (AFER) for FTS dan MC models as much as 0,78 percent and 2,74 percent, respec­tively.  Based-on these findings, FTS outperformed MC in in-sample forecasting for GDRP of Bali’s data.
PENENTUAN HARGA KONTRAK OPSI TIPE ASIA MENGGUNAKAN MODEL SIMULASI NORMAL INVERSE GAUSSIAN (NIG)
Authors: PARAMARTHA I PUTU OKA , DHARMAWAN KOMANG , NILAKUSMAWATI DESAK PUTU EKA
Published: August 2017

The aim to determine of the simulation results and to calculate the stock price of Asian Option with Normal Inverse Gaussian (NIG) method and Monte Carlo method using MATLAB program. Results of both models are compared and selected a fair price. Besides to determine simulation accuracy of the stock price, speed of program execution MATLAB is calculated for both models for time efficiency. The first part, set variabels used to calculate the trajectory of stock prices at time t to simulate the stock price at the time. The second part, simulate the stock price with NIG model. The third part, simulate the stock price with Monte Carlo model. After simulating the stock price, calculated the value of the pay-off of the Asian Option, and then estimate the price of Asian Option by averaging the entire value of pay-off from each iteration. The last part, compare result of both models. The results of this research is price of Asian Option calculated using Monte Carlo simulation and NIG. The rates were calculated using the NIG produce a fair price, because of the pricing contract NIG using four parameters ?, ?, ?, and ?, while Monte Carlo is using only two parameters ? and ?. For execution time of the program, the Monte Carlo model is better in all iterations.
KINERJA JACKKNIFE RIDGE REGRESSION DALAM MENGATASI MULTIKOLINEARITAS
Authors: DEVITA HANY , SUKARSA I KOMANG GDE , N. KENCANA I PUTU EKA
Published: August 2017

Ordinary least square is a parameter estimations for minimizing residual sum of squares. If the multicollinearity was found in the data, unbias estimator with minimum variance could not be reached. Multicollinearity is a linear correlation between independent variabels in model. Jackknife Ridge Regression(JRR) as an extension of Generalized Ridge Regression (GRR) for solving multicollinearity.  Generalized Ridge Regression is used to overcome the bias of estimators caused of presents multicollinearity by adding different bias parameter for each independent variabel in least square equation after transforming the data into an orthoghonal form. Beside that, JRR can  reduce the bias of the ridge estimator. The result showed that JRR model out performs GRR model.
PENENTUAN HARGA KONTRAK OPSI TIPE EROPA MENGGUNAKAN METODE QUASI MONTE CARLO DENGAN BARISAN KUASI-ACAK HALTON
Authors: MAHAYOGA I GUSTI PUTU NGURAH , DHARMAWAN KOMANG , IDA HARINI LUH PUTU
Published: August 2017

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui keakuratan hasil simulasi harga saham untuk menentukan harga opsi call dari metode Monte Carlo dan metode Quasi Monte Carlo dengan menggunakan program Matlab. Harga standar yang digunakan untuk membandingkan kedua metode tersebut akan dihitung dengan metode Black-Scholes. Nilai error yang dihitung menggunakan metode MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) digunakan sebagai acuan dalam perbandingan. Selain keakuratan simulasi harga saham, kecepatan eksekusi program Matlab kedua metode juga dihitung untuk efisiensi waktu. Tahap pertama, menentukan variabel-variabel yang digunakan untuk menghitung lintasan harga saham pada waktu ke-t pada saat mensimulasikan harga saham. Tahap kedua, menghitung harga standar menggunakan metode Black-Scholes. Tahap ketiga, mensimulasikan harga saham dengan metode Monte Carlo dan Quasi Monte Carlo. Setelah mensimulasikan harga saham, catat waktu eksekusi program Matlab, lalu dihitung nilai pay-off dari opsi call, kemudian menaksir harga opsi call dengan merata-ratakan seluruh nilai pay-off dari masing-masing iterasi. Tahap terakhir, menghitung error dari kedua metode simulasi dengan metode MAPE lalu membandingkannya. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa metode Quasi Monte Carlo lebih akurat karena menghasilkan nilai error yang lebih kecil, artinya hasil simulasinya mendekati harga standar. Sedangkan untuk waktu eksekusi program, metode Monte Carlo lebih baik di semua iterasi.
INTERPOLASI SPASIAL DENGAN METODE ORDINARY KRIGING MENGGUNAKAN SEMIVARIOGRAM ISOTROPIK PADA DATA SPASIAL (Studi Kasus: Curah Hujan di Kabupaten Karangasem)
Authors: PURNAMA D. PUTU MIRAH , SUKARSA KOMANG GDE , DHARMAWAN KOMANG
Published: August 2017

Spatial data is data that is presented in the geographic of an object, related to the location, shape and relationship of the earth in space. One of example of spatial data is rainfall. To determine the value of rainfall in an area, built to predict rain post information regarding rainfall. Spatial interpolation is used to estimate rainfall by collecting rainfall values held rain heading around. Assessment methods used in the estimate the rainfall in the Karangasem district is ordinary kriging using isotropic semivariogram that takes into account height on spatial data. Isotropic semivariogram which only takes into account the distance alone. Ordinary kriging method using isotropic semivariogram that takes into account height  value estimated rainfall is much different to the values at the control points Amlapura and Besakih. Interpolation on 3D data are not suitable for use on ordinary kriging method, grouping should be done at the data into a few weeks to application of ordinary kriging interpolation method using anisotropic semivariogram on 3D data.
MENENTUKAN HARGA KONTRAK BERJANGKA NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLLAR AS MENGGUNAKAN DISTRIBUSI LOGNORMAL
Authors: SUMENDRA GEDE , DHARMAWAN KOMANG , WIDANA I NYOMAN
Published: August 2017

The purpose of this study is to determine the fair price of a futures contract for the IDR (Rupiah) against the USD using lognormal distribution simulation. This result is compared with interest rate parity theorem. The first step of this study is to determine the values of the parameters which are optimized using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE). The parameters obtained in the form of the mean () and variance (). Further, parameters obtained are simulated using lognormal distribution to determine the exchange rate simulation (). Then price of future contract is also calculated using interest rate parity theorem. The price of the futures contracts () is determined by lognormal distribution simulated and price of interest rate futures contracts using parity theorem. The results of this study show that future contract price over the fair use lognormal distribution of 12.215 compared to the interest rate parity theorem which 12.400, with the initial contract price () of 12.185.
PERAMALAN JUMLAH WISATAWAN AUSTRALIA YANG BERKUNJUNG KE BALI MENGGUNAKAN MULTIVARIAT FUZZY TIME SERIES
Authors: SATRIA I MADE CANDRA , SUKARSA I KOMANG GDE , JAYANEGARA KETUT
Published: August 2017

The aim of this paper is to forecast the numbers of Australian tourist to Bali using multivariate fuzzy time series method (MFTS). MFTS method is development from fuzzy time series (FTS). The defferent betwen FTS and MFTS method is showed by factor in used. In FTS method using one factor, but in MFTS method using more than one factor. In this peper there was three factor used in this research, it was number of Australian tourist, Indonesian Inflation, and change rate of AUD to IDR. At the beginning, the speed of each factor was calculated. For each factor given weight, 0,999 for numbers of Australian tourist, -0,90 for Indonesian inflation, and 0,21 for change rate of AUD to IDR. The result showed that Australian tourist at July 2014 would visit Bali as much 91.056 tourist, with average error rate 6.87%.
PEMODELAN STRUKTURAL DARI EMOSI POSITIF SEBAGAI PEMEDIASI TERHADAP PEMBELIAN TIDAK TERENCANA
Authors: YANITA NI WAYAN ARNI , JAYANEGARA KETUT , N. KENCANA I PUTU EKA
Published: August 2017

Latent variables are variables that can not be observed directly. Latent variables can be observed with constituent indicators. One of the methods used to analyze the latent variables are Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). This research raised the case of impulse buying to be applied to the SEM method. Impulse buying influenced by the characteristics of the hypermarket, situational factors, the characteristics of the product, promotion and positive emotions. The purpose of this research was to determine the effect dari positive emotions as mediation to impulse buying.The results obtained indicate that positive emotions directly affect the impulse buying of 0.302, promotion directly affects the positive emotions of 0.367, and the promotion of indirect effect to impulse buying of 0.111. So positive emotions can mediate to impulse buying of 0.020. Goodness of fit mediation models not good with value 0.39.
MENENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL PADA PASAR SAHAM YANG BERGERAK DENGAN MODEL GERAK BROWN GEOMETRI MULTIDIMENSI
Authors: YUNITA RISKA , DHARMAWAN KOMANG , IDA HARINI LUH PUTU
Published: August 2017

Model of stock price movements that follow stochastic process can be formulated in Stochastic Diferential Equation (SDE). The exact solution of SDE model is called Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) model. Determination the optimal portfolio of three asset that follows Multidimensional GBM model is to be carried out in this research.Multidimensional GBM model represents stock price in the future is affected by three parameter, there are expectation of stock return, risk stock, and correlation between stock return. Therefore, theory of portfolio Markowitz is used on formation of optimal portfolio. Portfolio Markowitz formulates three of same parameter that is calculated on Multidimensional GBM model. The result of this research are optimal portfolio reaches with the proportion of fund are 39,38% for stock BBCA, 59,82% for stock ICBP, and 0,80% for stock INTP. This proportion of fund represents value of parameters that is calculated on modelling stock price.
ESTIMASI MODEL REGRESI SEMIPARAMETRIK MENGGUNAKAN ESTIMATOR KERNEL UNIFORM (Studi Kasus: Pasien DBD di RS Puri Raharja)
Authors: FITRIANI ANNA , SRINADI I GUSTI AYU MADE , SUSILAWATI MADE
Published: August 2017

Semiparametric regression model estimation is an estimation that combines both parametric and nonparametric regression model. In semiparametric regression, some of the variables are parametrics and the others are nonparametrics. Semiparametric regression is used when relationship pattern between independent and depentdent variables is half known  and half unknown. Regression curve smoothing technique in nonparametric components in this study was using uniform kernel function. The optimal semiparametric regression curve estimation was obtained by optimal bandwidth. By choosing optimal bandwidth, we would obtain a smooth regression curve estimation in respect to data pattern. In choosing optimal bandwidth, we use minimum GCV as a criteria.The purpose of this study was to estimate the semiparametric regression function of dengue fever case using uniform kernel estimator. There were 6 independent variables namely age (in years) body temperature (in Celcius), heartbeat (in times/minutes) hematocryte ratio (in percent), amount of trombocyte (× 103/ul) and fever duration ( in days). Age, body temperature, heartbeat, amount of trombosyte and fever duration are parametric components and hematocryte ration is a nonparametric component. The optimal bandwidth (h) which was obtained with minimum GCVwas 0,005. The value of MSE which was obtained by using multiple linear regression analysis was 0,031 and by using semiparametric regression was 0,00437119.
PERBANDINGAN KEEFISIENAN METODE NEWTON-RAPHSON, METODE SECANT, DAN METODE BISECTION DALAM MENGESTIMASI IMPLIED VOLATILITIES SAHAM
Authors: RAHAYUNI IDA AYU EGA , DHARMAWAN KOMANG , IDA HARINI LUH PUTU
Published: August 2017

Black-Scholes model suggests that volatility is constant or fixed during the life time of the option certainly known. However, this does not fit with what happen in the real market. Therefore, the volatility has to be estimated. Implied Volatility is the etimated volatility from a market mechanism that is considered as a reasonable way to assess the volatility's value. This study was aimed to compare the Newton-Raphson, Secant, and Bisection method, in estimating the stock volatility value of PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk (TLK). It found that the three methods have the same Implied Volatilities, where Newton-Raphson method gained roots more rapidly than the two others, and it has the smallest relative error greater than Secant and Bisection methods.
PERHITUNGAN NILAI BETA DARI BEBERAPA SAHAM UNGGULAN DI INDONESIA DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE GARCH
Authors: PUSPITAYANTI NI KADEK , DHARMAWAN KOMANG , N. KENCANA I PUTU EKA
Published: August 2017

The objective of investment in the capital market is to acquire dividends and capital gain. The fact proves that the advantage of investation risky assets is uncertain . This is because of the difficulty in analyzing and predicting Return and stock losses due to factors that affect the movement of the stock price , such as economic factors , political , social , and security. The model can be used by investors in predicting stock returns expected that Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedaticity (GARCH). In this study calculations beta value of some leading stocks in Indonesia by using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedaticity (GARCH) are presented . The data used this search is secondary data covering daily data sampled 5 shares of PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk , PT Indosat Tbk , PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk , PT Telkom Indonesia Tbk , PT Holcim Indonesia Tbk. From the results described fifth beta value of these shares using the method GARCH beta greater than the market in the period from 23 September 2013 until 24 September 2014.
ANALISIS REGRESI NONPARAMETRIK SPLINE MULTIVARIAT UNTUK PEMODELAN INDIKATOR KEMISKINAN DI INDONESIA
Authors: ASTITI DESAK AYU WIRI , SUMARJAYA I WAYAN , SUSILAWATI MADE
Published: August 2017

The aim of this study is to obtain statistics models which explain the relationship between variables that influence the poverty indicators in Indonesia using multivariate spline nonparametric regression method. Spline is a nonparametric regression estimation method that is automatically search for its estimation wherever the data pattern move and thus resulting in model which fitted the data. This study, uses data from survey of Social Economy National (Susenas) and survey of Employment National (Sakernas) of 2013 from the publication of the Central Bureau of Statistics (BPS). This study yields two models which are the best model from two used response variables. The criterion uses to select the best model is the minimum Generalized Cross Validation (GCV). The best spline model obtained is cubic spline model with five optimal knots.
PENERAPAN BRANCH AND BOUND ALGORITHM DALAM OPTIMALISASI PRODUKSI ROTI
Authors: SURYAWAN GEDE , TASTRAWATI NI KETUT TARI , SARI KARTIKA
Published: August 2017

Companies which engaged in production activities such as Ramadhan Bakery would want optimal profit in their every production. The aim of this study was to find optimal profit and optimal combination of bread production (original chocolate bread, extra chocolate bread, rounding chocolate bread and mattress chocolate bread) that was produced by Ramadhan Bakery by applying Branch and Bound Algorithm method. Branch and Bound Algorithm is one method to solve Integer Programming’s problems other than Cutting Plane method. Compared with Cutting Plane method, Branch and Bound Algorithm method is more effective in determining the optimal value. As the result of this study showed that to get optimal profit, Ramadhan Bakery should produce 360 pcs of original chocolate bread, 300 pcs of extra chocolate bread, 306 pcs of rounding chocolate bread and 129 pcs of mattress chocolate bread with optimal profit amounts Rp. 1.195.624,00.. The profit will increase amounts 25,2 % than before.
ANALISIS HUBUNGAN PRODUKSI PADI DAN INDIKATOR ENSO DI KABUPATEN TABANAN DENGAN PENDEKATAN COPULA
Authors: UDAYANI LUH GEDE , SUMARJAYA I WAYAN , SUSILAWATI MADE
Published: August 2017

Dependence relationship between two or more variables is an issue that is often studied in the science of probability and statistics. Pearson correlation is often the easiest option to measure dependencies between variables. It is well known, that Pearson correlation assumes that the variable under study must be normally distributed. However, in reality this is not the case; for example, data in fields such as climatology and meteorology, insurance, and financial. Copula is a tool that can be used to model the joint distribution because it does not require the assumption of normality of the data so that it is resilient against a wide range of data. In this study, we discussed the application of copula in modeling the structure of dependencies between two variables: the production of rice and El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indicator per period in Tabanan Regency. The best dependency model structure is given by the Frank copula of the Archimedean copula family with estimation parameter,  ? = 2,817 and the loglikelihood value of 3,47.
MENENTUKAN HARGA KONTRAK BERJANGKA KOMODITAS KEDELAI MENGGUNAKAN MODEL MEAN REVERSION
Authors: SEDANA WIRYA , DHARMAWAN KOMANG , ASIH NI MADE
Published: August 2017

It has been discussed in many literatures that commodity prices tend to follow mean reversion model. This means that when there is a jump price in certain time, the price will revert to the mean price in the future. In this research, the method to determine the existence of mean-reversion of soybean price dynamics is discussed. Then, the future contract of soybeans is calculated using mean-reversion simulation and the spot-future parity theorem. Both methods are applied to the closing price of soybeans for the period of 19 September 2011 to 28 April 2016. The results show that the future contract price calculated by Model Mean-Reversion simulation under estimate the future contract price determined by the spot-future parity theorem.
ESTIMASI NILAI VaR PORTOFOLIO MENGGUNAKAN FUNGSI ARCHIMEDEAN COPULA
Authors: SUHARTO AULIA ATIKA PRAWIBTA , DHARMAWAN KOMANG , SUMARJAYA I WAYAN
Published: August 2017

Value at Risk explains the magnitude of the worst losses occurred in financial products investments with a certain level of confidence and time interval. The purpose of this study is to estimate the VaR of portfolio using Archimedean Copula family. The methods for calculating the VaR are as follows: (1) calculating the stock return; (2) calculating descriptive statistics of return; (3) checking for the nature of autocorrelation and heteroscedasticity effects on stock return data; (4) checking for the presence of extreme value by using Pareto tail; (5) estimating the parameters of Achimedean Copula family; (6) conducting simulations of Archimedean Copula; (7) estimating the value of the stock portfolio VaR. This study uses the closing price of TLKM and GGRM. At 90% the VaR obtained using Clayton, Gumbel, Frank copulas are 0.9562%, 1.0189%, 0.9827% respectively. At 95% the VaR obtained using Clayton, Gumbel, Frank copulas are 1.2930%, 1.2522%, 1.3152% respectively. At 99% the VaR obtained using Clayton, Gumbel, Frank copulas are 2.0327%, 1.9164%, is 1.8678% respectively. In conclusion estimation of VaR using Clayton copula yields the highest VaR.
PREMI TUNGGAL ASURANSI JIWA SEUMUR HIDUP UNIT LINK DENGAN GARANSI MINIMUM DAN NILAI CAP MENGGUNAKAN METODE POINT TO POINT
Authors: JULIANTARI JULIANTARI , SUMARJAYA I WAYAN , WIDANA I NYOMAN
Published: August 2017

Unit-linked whole life insurance is an insurance that combines traditional whole life insurance with modern insurance unit-links which provide both protection and investment. One of indexing method for calculating premium of unit-linked insurance is point to point method. The data used in this study was the closing price of PT. Astra Agro Lestari, Indonesia Tbk and The mortality table used in this research is Indonesia’s Mortalita Table III Men. It was obtained that the net single premium for whole life insurance unit-linked for the insured aged 45 years is amounted to Rp. 350.324,-
PEMODELAN PENYEBARAN KASUS DEMAM BERDARAH DENGUE (DBD) DI KOTA DENPASAR DENGAN METODE SPATIAL AUTOREGRESSIVE (SAR)
Authors: JAYANTI NI MADE SURYA , SUMARJAYA I WAYAN , SUSILAWATI MADE
Published: August 2017

One of spatial regression model is Spatial Autoregressive (SAR), which assumes that the autoregressive process only on the dependent variable only by considering the spatial effects. There are two aspects of spatial effects, that is spatial dependence and spatial heterogeneity. One of the problems which considers spatial effect is the spread of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF). Denpasar City is an endemic DHF disease because there have been DHF cases in three consecutive years or more. The purpose of this research is to estimate the spread of DHF in  Denpasar City along with the factors that affect it. The results show that the factors that influence the spread of DHF are neighborhood, area and the role of Jumantik at the every village in Denpasar City.
PERBANDINGAN METODE MCD-BOOTSTRAP DAN LAD-BOOTSTRAP DALAM MENGATASI PENGARUH PENCILAN PADA ANALISIS REGRESI LINEAR BERGANDA
Authors: KUMALASARI NI LUH PUTU RATNA , SUCIPTAWATI NI LUH PUTU , SUSILAWATI MADE
Published: August 2017

Outliers are observations that are far away from other observations. Outlier can be interfered with the process of data analysis which influence the regression parameters estimation.  Methods that are able to deal with outliers are Minimum Covariance Determinant and Least Absolute Deviation methods. However, if both methods are applied with small sample the validity of both methods is being questioned. This research applies bootstrap to MCD and LAD methods to small sample. Resampling using 500, 750,and 1000 with confidence interval of 95% and 99% shows that both methods produce an unbiased estimators at 10%, 15%, and 20% outliers. The confidence interval of MCD-Bootstrap method is shorter than  LAD-Bootstrap method. Both are, MCD-Bootstrap method is a better thus than LAD-Bootstrap method.
ESTIMASI NILAI AVERAGE VALUE AT RISK PADA SAHAM PORTOFOLIO DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE ANALISIS KOMPONEN UTAMA
Authors: NIKASARI NI LUH , DHARMAWAN KOMANG , SRINADI I GUSTI AYU MADE
Published: August 2017

There are several methods that can be used to measure the risk of a portfolio of stocks. One of them is Average Value at Risk (AVaR). The purpose of this study is to implement Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to select stocks to be incorporated in the portfolio and also to compare the AVaR of the portfolio when  the stocks selected using PCA and selected using mean-variance method. The data we used are the closing price of the stocks BBCA, BDMN, ICBP, INTP, CPIN, KLBF, GGRM, MNCN, SMCB, and SGRO. The selected stocks using PCA are BBCA, CPIN, INTP and, MNCN with AVaR is 1.0971% for 90% confidence level and for 95% confidence level is 1.1432% whereas by using mean variance method, it is found that BDMN, GGRM, ICBP, and SMCB have to be incorporated in the portfolio with AVaR is 1.3314% for 90% confidence level and 1.4263% for 95% confidence level.
APLIKASI MODEL REGRESI SEMIPARAMETRIK SPLINE TRUNCATED (Studi Kasus: Pasien Demam Berdarah Dengue (DBD) di Rumah Sakit Puri Raharja)
Authors: NIRMALA YANI NI WAYAN MERRY , SRINADI I GUSTI AYU MADE , SUMARJAYA I WAYAN
Published: August 2017

Semiparametric regression is a regression model that includes parametric components and nonparametric components in a model. The regression model in this research is truncated spline semiparametric regression with case studies of patients with Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) at Puri Raharja Hospital during the period of January to March 2015. The best regression model estimation is obtained from the selection of optimal knots which has minimum Generalized Cross Validation (GCV) is. Parametric components in this research include age (years), body temperature (0C), platelets and hematocrit (%) as a nonparametric component. The minimum value of GCV is 0.03552045 achieved at the point of 39.6 knots, MSE value of 0.0296922; and the value of coefficient determination is 98.91%, obtained from semiparametric regression model truncated linear spline (order 2) with a single point of knots.
IDENTIFIKASI FAKTOR-FAKTOR PEMICU KEKERASAN DALAM RUMAH TANGGA DI KOTA DENPASAR
Authors: ARIFIANTI LAILY A.A. , JAYANEGARA KETUT , GANDHIADI G.K. , KENCANA EKA N.
Published: August 2017

Family or domestic violence is meant as a pattern of someone behavior that abuse his/or her power against another member(s) in a family or domestic setting. Knowing the underlying factors that trigger family violence are important to keep family members form a harmonious relationship. This work is aimed to elaborate those factors. By analyzing primary data from 120 respondents whom witness and well informed about family violence in their neighborhoods, factor analyzes is applied. Data are collected by using tested questionnaires. The results showed they were six underlying factors for family violence with total accounted for all factors were 65.19 percent.  Those factors are (a) social relationship, (b) job description, (c) past experience, (d) supporting factor, (e) economics’ status, and (f) harmonious relationship level. From these factors, social relationship dominates the others with variance explained for family violence as much as 21.39 percent.
miR-26b Mimic Inhibits Glioma Proliferation In Vitro and In Vivo Suppressing COX-2 Expression
Authors: Chen Zheng-Gang , Zheng Chuan-Yi , Cai Wang-Qing , Li Da-Wei , Ye Fu-Yue , Zhou Jian , Wu Ran , Yang Kun
Published: August 2017

Glioma is the most common malignant tumor of the nervous system. Studies have shown the microRNA-26b (miR-26b)/cyclooxygenase-2 (COX-2) axis in the development and progression in many tumor cells. Our study aims to investigate the effect and mechanism of the miR-26b/COX-2 axis in glioma.
Decreased expression of miR-26b with increased levels of COX-2 was found in glioma tissues compared with matched normal tissues. A strong negative correlation was observed between the level of miR-26b and COX-2 in 30 glioma tissues. The miR-26b was then overexpressed by transfecting a miR-26b
mimic into U-373 cells. The invasive cell number and wound closing rate were reduced in U-373 cells transfected with miR-26b mimic. In addition, COX-2 siRNA enhanced the effect of miR-26b mimic in suppressing the expression of p-ERK1 and p-JNK. Finally, the in vivo experiment revealed that
miR-26b mimic transfection strongly reduced the tumor growth, tumor volume, and expression of matrix metalloproteinase-2 (MMP-2) and MMP-9. Taken together, our research indicated a miR-26b/COX-2/ERK/JNK axis in regulating the motility of glioma in vitro and in vivo, providing a new sight for
the treatment of glioma.
Upregulation of MicroRNA-4262 Targets Kaiso (ZBTB33) to Inhibit the Proliferation and EMT of Cervical Cancer Cells
Authors: Feng Jing
Published: August 2017

More and more studies have reported that dysregulation of microRNAs (miRNAs) leads to the proliferation and EMT of multiple cancers. Recently, several reports have demonstrated that dysregulation of miR-4262 occurs in numerous cancers. However, its role and precise mechanism in human
cervical cancer (CC) have not been well clarified. Hence, this study aimed to explore the biological roles and precise mechanisms of miR-4262 in CC cell lines. The level of miR-4262 was found to be significantly decreased in CC tissues and cell lines. Moreover, decreased expression of miR-4262
was closely related to increased expression of Kaiso (ZBTB33), which belongs to the BTB/POZ family, in CC tissues and cell lines. The proliferation and EMT of CC cells were inhibited by a miR-4262 mimic. However, downregulation of miR-4262 enhanced the proliferation and EMT of CC cells. Next,
bioinformatics analysis predicted that miR-4262 might directly target the Kaiso gene. Besides, luciferase reporter assay had confirmed this result. Moreover, introduction of Kaiso in CC cells partially blocked the effects of miR-4262 mimic. In conclusion, miR-4262 suppressed the proliferation
and EMT of CC cells by directly downregulating Kaiso.
The Impact Of Stakeholder Relations On The Mnemba Island Marine Conservation Area, Zanzibar, Tanzania
Authors: Burgoyne Christopher , Kelso Clare , Mearns Kevin
Published: August 2017

Tourism has the potential to be used as a positive tool for growth in developing nations. In order to gain the most benefit from tourism, planning and management is vital for successful tourism destination development and the attainment of conservation goals. This process should involve
all stakeholders who might be affected by tourism and associated developments. In order for collaboration to be effective, there are certain social aspects that need to exist in stakeholder relationships such as open communication, transparency, and trust. Research has shown that these social
variables are vital for the successful collaborative management of natural resources, and as such are important to the health of social and ecological systems upon which the future of tourism depends. This article investigates stakeholder relations and how these have influenced the Mnemba
Island Marine Conservation Area in Zanzibar, Tanzania. Findings suggest a lack of structure in the working relationships of key stakeholders. As a result, these relationships are strained. Despite the importance of formal agreements and structured relations, these have been difficult to implement
due to stakeholder conflict over resource control. Social variables (e.g., trust, transparency) shaping stakeholder relations had a largely negative impact on the health of social and ecological systems. Suggestions for a more detailed investigation into the complexities, challenges, and possibilities
for stakeholder working relationships in the Mnemba Island Marine Conservation Area are provided.
Une société de négoce français au Brésil dans le dernier tiers du XIX e siècle : Boris Frères au Ceará
Authors: Monteiro Takeya Denise
Published: August 2017

Nous avons étudié, dans cet article, les activités de la société Boris Frères pendant la première décennie de son existence au Brésil : les années 1870. Ses relations commerciales montrent, d’une part, le rôle que cette société a joué dans l’intégration d’une économie agro-exportatrice au commerce international et, d’autre part sa conquête d’une place sur le marché du Ceará.