bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
THE DEVELOPING FRAMEWORK FOR THE ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF FORESTRY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM — A COMMENT
Authors: Price Colin
Published: November 2008

The application of Kula's sum of discounted consumption flows method to forestry investment gives a more favourable result than NPV, but leads to some curious consequences. In particular, the immediate future generation may not be provided with a timber resource by the present generation, while being expected to provide such a resource for its own successors. The method does not in fact treat future generations equitably: downward revision of the social discount rate, possibly to zero, is a better means of achieving this objective.
ESTIMATION OF SOCIAL WELFARE WEIGHTS IN AGRICULTURAL POLICY: THE CASE OF GREEK COTTON
Authors: Lianos T. P. , Rizopoulos G.
Published: November 2008

This paper provides a welfare analysis of the Greek cotton market and obtains an estimate of the distributional weights implicit in the postulated welfare function of agricultural policy makers. The estimate of that weight depends, as might be expected, on the elasticity of supply and the difference between the support price and the market price. For the period covered, the welfare of Greek cotton producers was weighted about ten per cent more than that of taxpayers.
SOURCES OF EXPORT EARNINGS INSTABILITY: THE ROLE OF AGRICULTURE
Authors: Habeck M. , Brown D. J. , Abbott P.
Published: November 2008

Previous studies of export earnings for less developed countries have suggested that earnings from primary products — including agriculture — might be more stable than those from industrial goods. Those studies used highly aggregated sectors, so that individual agricultural sectors could not be identified as stable or not. This study measures the export earnings instability of 20 commodity aggregates — more than half of them agricultural — for 27 countries between 1962 and 1983. The results indicate that some agricultural sectors were unstable and that no individual sector was universally stable. Agricultural sectors tended to be among the more stable sectors in low and middle income countries and among the less stable sectors in high income countries.
STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS OF AGRICULTURAL CO‐OPERATIVES IN BRITAIN
Authors: Oustapassidis K.
Published: November 2008

The theory of the behaviour of the co‐operative firm has greatly advanced in recent years though this has not been accompanied by a major resurgence of empirical study. This paper is aimed at a basic investigation of some of the structural features of the British cooperative movement over the period 1975‐82. Using various concentration measures familiar in industrial economics it draws a sharp contrast between the requisite and marketing sides. It then focuses on economies of scale using Stigler's survivor technique concluding that there is little evidence of their existence in either sector. Diversification of activity is also considered, where again a contrast is evident. The paper concludes with a note on the policy relevance of the analysis.
TARGET RETURNS WITHIN RISK PROGRAMMING MODELS: A MULTI‐OBJECTIVE APPROACH
Authors: Berbel J.
Published: November 2008

An approach to deal with risk in agricultural planning with a safety‐first model is presented. The approach, named mean‐partial absolute deviation (mean‐PAD), is aimed at improving existing safety‐first methods by combining an accurate estimation of the probability of failure with multiobjective programming. The logic of the method is explained by a simple example. Although the mean‐PAD approach is a multiobjective technique by nature, it can be made operational by using common linear programming codes.
PLURALISM IN ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS: A SURVEY OF THE SUSTAINABLE ECONOMIC DEVELOMENT DEBATE
Authors: Turner R. K.
Published: November 2008

It is claimed that the concept of ‘sustainable economic development’ is central to the new ‘practical’ environmentalism of the 1980s. Intuitively, sustainability perspectives seem to suggest that knowledge accumulated in the natural sciences ought to be applied to economic processes. They contain the proposition that there is a real prospect that increasing per capita real incomes over time can be achieved in an environmentally benign manner, or at least without posing severe environmental risks. A working definition of sustainable development might be as follows:

Sustainable development involves maximising the net benefits of economic development, subject to maintaining the services and quality of natural resources over time.

Economic development is broadly construed to include not just increases in real per capita incomes but also other elements in social welfare. Development will necessarily involve structural change within the economy and in society. Maintaining the services and quality of the stock of resources over time implies, as far as practicable, acceptance of the following rules:

utilise renewable resources at rates less than, or equal to, the natural or managed rate at which they can regenerate;

optimise the efficiency with which non‐renewable resources are used in the long run, subject to substitutability between resources, and technological progress.
STRATEGIES FOR DEALING WITH AGRICULTURE IN THE URUGUAY ROUND
Authors: Zietz J.
Published: November 2008

Full integration of agriculture into the GATT framework is shown to be the most fruitful approach to resolve agricultural trade problems and to ensure an overall success of the Uruguay Round. Full integration implies, however, that certain widely discussed ideas for agricultural trade reform, such as producer subsidy equivalents, will be less useful. An alternative proposal for trade reform is outlined which is applicable across all sectors and hence would better promote full integration of agriculture into GATT.
AGRICULTURAL FLOOD ALLEVIATION BENEFIT ASSESSMENT: A CASE STUDY
Authors: Morris J. , Hess T. M.
Published: November 2008

The cost of flooding on farm land depends on land use, on the frequency, seasonality, duration and depth of flooding, and on water quality. This paper describes a method to calculate the average annual cost of flooding and the extra benefits or costs associated with given changes in flooding regime, illustrated by means of a simplified case study which examines the agricultural benefits of reduced summer flooding on grass in an area of environmental importance.

Using hydrological and agro‐economic data, the method derives the cost of individual flood events occurring in any one month for a given land use, weights these according to observed seasonality of flood flows, and derives average annual costs per hectare and for the floodplain as a whole for given levels of flood risk. The method is useful for appraising river flood alleviation schemes whereby the effects of changes in flood risk, flood seasonality or land use can be assessed.
THE DEMAND FOR FERTILISER IN THE UNITED KINGDOM
Authors: Burrell A.
Published: November 2008

Among the policy alternatives for limiting fertiliser use, a tax on chemical fertiliser is administratively the easiest option. Its efficacy depends partly on the responsiveness of fertiliser demand to price changes. This paper reviews the empirical methodologies available for estimating the price elasticity of a derived demand and presents the results of several econometric models. The econometric analysis shows that the response of UK fertiliser demand to own‐price changes is greater than has been assumed on the basis of programming studies of arable farms. This result establishes a necessary but not a sufficient condition for an effective fertiliser tax. The full impact of a fertiliser tax over the longer term depends on the extent to which technical change is driven by trends in relative prices.
STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT, PRICE REFORM AND AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA
Authors: Smith L. D.
Published: November 2008

Increasing debt problems since the late 1970s have led many sub‐Saharan African countries to call on the IMF for balance of payments assistance. The conventional IMF approaches have proved unrealistic in the African context and the IMF, and the World Bank, have been groping towards appropriate structural adjustment programmes to correct the imbalances in the medium term. These programmes necessarily impinge on the agricultural sector and often rely on enhanced agricultural sector performance for their success. Price reform, both at a macro‐ and micro‐level is a frequently used adjustment instrument and its suitability and limitations in this context are examined.
THE ALMOST IDEAL DEMAND SYSTEM: AN APPLICATION TO FOOD AND MEAT GROUPS FOR FRANCE
Authors: Fulponi L.
Published: November 2008

This paper presents the results from estimating an Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) for food and meat for France. Since AIDS is indirectly non‐additive and consistent with the requirements of demand theory as well as having other desirable characteristics, it is an appropriate choice for examining food and meat demand. A particular advantage of AIDS is that its linear approximation is an excellent first‐order approximation to the complete system and this version is used in the present paper. Income and price elasticities are presented, calculated at both their mean value and at different points to examine possible changes in patterns of demand behaviour.
ATTITUDES TOWARDS FARM DIVERSIFICATION: RESULTS FROM A SURVEY OF DEVON FARMS
Authors: Halliday J. E.
Published: November 2008

Evidence from a survey of farmers' reactions to milk quotas suggests that there remains a fundamental divide between policymakers' views of the future farm and those of the farmers themselves. This paper examines this dichotomy in the context of one important milk‐producing county, Devon. Here an emphasis at County Council level on non‐agricultural diversification is found to contrast with the actions and intentions of sampled farmers. These favour instead an increase in farm self‐sufficiency and an exploration of mainstream farming options, particularly an increase in beef and sheep enterprises.
MARKET POWER IN THE FOOD INDUSTRY: A NOTE
Authors: McDonald J. R. S. , Rayner A. J. , Bates J. M.
Published: November 2008

This note presents a framework for examining certain aspects of the interactions between the food processing and distribution sectors in the UK. Both these components of the food industry are characterised by a high and increasing degree of structural concentration such that they have potential market power, and their behavioural interdependence may have implications for economic performance. Indeed, in recognition of this, official enquiries (Monopolies and Mergers Commission (1981) and Office of Fair Trading (1985)) have been conducted into competition in the food retailing sector. Whilst these reports have suggested that increasing structural concentration in the food industry has not been detrimental to the performance goals of economy (price competition), efficiency (resource allocation) and progress (variety, quality, new products), they have stressed the desirability of the continued monitoring of competition.
MARKETING MARGINS IN THE MEAT SECTOR, ENGLAND AND WALES 1978–1987
Authors: Digby M. P.
Published: November 2008

The paper presents a basic analysis of price spread data for beef, lamb and pork over the period 1978 to 1987. The results are reviewed in the light of existing margin theory in order to assess how far the characteristics of price and margin behaviour today differ from those highlighted in earlier work. It is concluded that while short run behaviour is well explained, further research is required if we are to fully understand the factors influencing the longer term development of margins in the meat sector.
AGRICULTURAL PRICE PROTECTION, IMPORT DEPENDENCE AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: THE CASE OF WHEAT
Authors: Herrmann R.
Published: November 2008

This article analyses determinants of agricultural price protection for one important food, wheat, in a pooled cross‐country and time‐series analysis. For the aggregate sample it is shown that wheat price protection increases with a rising level of economic development and with a growing import dependence in wheat. Beyond this general pattern, the paper shows that the variation in wheat price protection can be significantly better explained if qualitative variables are introduced additionally into the model. For example, in Japan, in the Northern European countries and during the commodity price boom (1973–75), wheat price protection followed a specific pattern. Income elasticities and import‐dependence elasticities of wheat price protection are computed for all countries in 1968–80, and additionally for various sub‐regions and sub‐periods.
ON DECISION‐MAKING FOR MAXIMUM PROFIT PER UNIT OF TIME FROM BATCH PRODUCTION
Authors: Kawaguchi T. , Kennedy J.
Published: November 2008

Finding ration sequences which result in maximum profit per day from fattening batches of livestock over successive weight intervals has posed difficulties in earlier studies. Fractional and dynamic programming are considered as solution methods and illustrated for a problem previously solved by total enumeration. Other problems are discussed which would be best solved by a combination of the two methods. A novel proposal is made for using the two methods to maximise the present value of returns from sequencing weight gains over infinite production cycles.
AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN THE USSR: PROBLEMS, TRENDS AND PROSPECTS
Authors: Littmann E.‐L.
Published: November 2008

The paper, after presenting a brief profile of USSR agriculture, elaborates on the main goals of USSR agricultural policies as well as on the main instruments used for implementing these policies. It tries to point out the achievements and constraints of these policies which are underlying Mr Gorbachev's efforts towards a reform of the USSR food economy. The main elements of this reform, so far as they have already become visible at this stage, are discussed and the inherent risks are indicated. The paper finishes with a brief speculative look at the possible effects of the reform measures on the world food economy, if they were implemented consistently and successfully.
PRICISM v. STRUCTURALISM IN SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICAN AGRICULTURE
Authors: Beynon J. G.
Published: November 2008

A re‐examination of data frequently used to support the notion of price discrimination against agriculture in Sub‐Saharan Africa suggests that the extent of agricultural taxation has been overstated. In addition, a review of the evidence on the aggregate agricultural supply response to price indicates that elasticities are low, with the most plausible estimates lying in the range 0.2–0.4. Eight structural constraints explaining the poor supply response, to which Sub‐Saharan Africa is particularly prone, are identified. Further evidence is presented to show that output responds more significantly to structural factors than to price, and that investment in rural infrastructure will bring about an improved response to price. Capital constraints limit price‐induced private investment, so that public sector led investment in new technology and rural infrastructure would appear to be the single most important strategy for reversing the decline in African agriculture.
VALUING RURAL RECREATION BENEFITS: AN EMPIRICAL COMPARISON OF TWO APPROACHES
Authors: Hanley N. D.
Published: November 2008

Two methodologies for valuing non‐market benefits (contingent valuation and the travel cost method) are briefly described. Both are then applied to the problem of valuing non‐market recreation benefits derived by visitors to a part of the Queen Elizabeth Forest Park in Central Scotland. Results, in terms of consumer surplus estimates, are presented for each method, and problem areas found in applying the two methodologies are pointed out.
AGRICULTURAL LAND, TECHNOLOGY AND FARM POLICY
Authors: Offutt S. , Shoemaker R.
Published: November 2008

The relative importance of farmland and of agriculture in a developed economy decreases over time, largely due to the landsaving bias in technological change. In spite of this decrease, or perhaps because of it, agricultural policies have sought to transfer income to farmers from consumers and taxpayers. Since World War II, a primary instrument which the US has employed in pursuing this transfer has been a system of acreage controls that restricts the input of land as a factor in field crop production. This programme has resulted in the transfer of benefits to land owners through capitalisation into land values. Evidence from a translog cost function and share equations of the US agricultural sector suggests that government intervention has moderated the decrease in the share of land in the value of agricultural production. At the same time, land‐saving bias in technological change has been reinforced by the induced scarcity of land, thereby acting to reduce the land share.
POPULATION DYNAMICS AND MILK SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE US LAKE STATES
Authors: Chavas J.‐P. , Kraus A. F.
Published: November 2008

This paper develops a dynamic model of a dairy cow population and of milk supply response. When applied to the US Lake States, the model provides evidence against the Nerlovian model. It suggests that the pattern of dynamic effects of prices on cow numbers varies for different prices. The estimated dynamic supply elasticities provide some useful information on the nature of dairy production adjustments. For example, the response of milk supply to market prices is found to be very inelastic in the short run. It takes at least 7 years of sustained change to obtain an elastic response to milk price. Also, feed price and slaughter cow price are found to have smaller effects on dairy supply than milk price, but larger effects than risk, hay price or capital cost.
IMPORTER LOYALTY IN THE INTERNATIONAL WHEAT MARKET
Authors: Wilson W. , Koo W. , Carter A.
Published: November 2008

Important political and institutional relationships exist between most grain‐trading partners. In many cases the purpose of these relationships is to enhance importer loyalty to a particular exporter. This paper tests for loyalty in the world wheat market. Loyalty is measured by repeat purchases. An application of the Markov model is used to analyse loyalty and to explain international trade flows in wheat. Results show that in general the United States has relatively strong import loyalty compared to the other exporters such as Canada and the European Community.
PRODUCER RISK, PRODUCT COMPLEMENTARITY AND PRODUCT DIVERSIFICATION
Authors: Fraser R. W.
Published: November 2008

In this paper, a model is presented of the product diversification problem which features both producer risk aversion and product complementarity as determinants of product diversification. Although both risk aversion and product complementarity are, in the absence of the other, incentives to diversity production, when the two are present their joint influence may create a disincentive to diversification. In particular, an increase in the value of product complementarity may result in reduced product diversification for a risk‐averse producer.
INFORMATION SYSTEMS FOR CROP MANAGEMENT: PROSPECTS AND PROBLEMS
Authors: McGregor M. J. , Thornton P. K.
Published: November 2008

The use of simulation models and expert systems in the provision of management information is considered with respect to cereal variety selection, together with the advantages and disadvantages that these can bring over more traditional methods of providing farmers with timely information. The integration of the tools of simulation and expert systems can help to overcome their respective limitations. However, considerable emphasis needs to be placed by researchers on the problem of adoption of such software by farmers and advisers if the benefits of such tools are to be even partially realised in the long term.
NEGATIVE SUPPLY RESPONSE AND THE ROLE OF PRICE EXPECTATIONS IN A TWO‐PERIOD MODEL OF CATTLE PRODUCTION
Authors: Gordon D. V.
Published: November 2008

This paper incorporates a representation of producers' price expectations (ARIMA) in a two‐period production process to characterise short‐run cattle supply. The model provides a framework for examining the role of biological factors and changing expectations of future cattle prices in generating a negative short‐run supply response. The biological link between cattle generations requires the farmer to make a decision between production today and production tomorrow. This decision is based on a trade‐off between the possibilities of increasing current profit levels by increasing current output weighted against the possibilities of increased future profit by maintaining animals in inventory under the expectation of future price increases. Application of the model to Canadian data for the period 1978‐81 shows that the necessary condition for a negative supply response exists, but that the total supply elasticity remains positive.
CEREAL SUPPLY POLICY INSTRUMENTS: AN ATTITUDINAL SURVEY AMONG FARMERS IN ENGLAND
Authors: Bradbury I. K. , Charlesworth A. , Collins C. A.
Published: November 2008

Against a background of steadily mounting cereal surpluses in the European Community and a recognition that the cereals sector is a major contributor to the Community's budgetary problems, a survey was carried out of English farmers' attitudes and preferences concerning a range of alternative cereal supply policy instruments. Personal interviews were held with 102 farmers in two contrasting agricultural districts — one an intensive cereal‐growing district in eastern England, the other an area of mixed livestock and arable farming in western England. Amongst cereal producers in both areas a quota was the preferred policy instrument; in the east because of the security it offered, but in the west because it was perceived to be the least damaging instrument for the industry as a whole. A price reduction was the preferred option of small livestock farmers in the western area. None of the other instruments — co‐responsibility levy, set‐aside, nitrogen use restrictions — received much support. Farmers were particularly negative about schemes involving the withdrawal of land from agricultural use.
AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN OECD COUNTRIES: AGENDA FOR THE FUTURE
Authors: Viatte G.
Published: November 2008

Market disequilibria, the economic costs involved and the resulting international tensions have led to a political agreement on the need to reform agricultural policies in the direction of market orientation. However, progress has been limited so far. The present period is decisive in requiring the concrete implementation of the agreed reform principles, through a combination of domestic and international actions. In this process of reform, agriculture will be faced with new issues, reflecting the overall structural adjustment of economies and their growing internationalisation.
TESTING OLIGOPOLISTIC AND OLIGOPSONISTIC BEHAVIOUR: AN APPLICATION TO THE US MEAT‐PACKING INDUSTRY
Authors: Azzam A. M. , Pagoulatos E.
Published: November 2008

This paper extends the conjectural approach in industrial organisation to the analysis of imperfections in output and factor markets. Starting from the specification of a production function, the econometric analysis is based on the formulation and estimation of a simultaneous‐equation model consisting of a production function, first‐order conditions associated with factor employment, and two conjectural elasticities to parameterise the industry's oligopoly and oligopsony equilibria. As an example, we provide an application to the US meat‐packing industry. Our results suggest that the industry exercises market power in both the output (meat) market and the factor (live animal) market.
COMMUNICATIONS IN AGRICULTURE: RESULTS OF A FARMER SURVEY
Authors: Fearne A. P.
Published: November 2008

This paper discusses the results of a survey of farmers aimed at establishing a contemporary view of both the use of information and advice by farmers and their attitudes towards the various sources through which agricultural information and advice is channelled. The results of the survey suggest that farmers are generally satisfied with the provision of agricultural information and advice. The Agricultural Development and Advisory Services (ADAS), commercial representatives and the farming press continue to play an important role in communicating information and advice to farmers, but the wider uptake of on‐farm information technology is yet to be achieved.
AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH EXPENDITURES AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY CHANGE
Authors: Hallam D.
Published: November 2008

This note comments on the econometric analysis of the dynamic relationship between agricultural research expenditures and agricultural productivity change. The validity of the Almon restrictions, particularly endpoint restrictions, commonly imposed on the distributed lag is questioned. It is suggested that models incorporating such restrictions may lead to biased estimates of the effects of research spending. More fundamentally, doubts are raised as to whether any meaningful relationship between research spending and productivity change can be established from the available data.
THE ECONOMICS OF ‐ WHEAT PRODUCTION IN MOROCCO
Authors: Abbott P. C. , Tyner W. E. , Roth M. J. , Rafsnider G. T.
Published: November 2008

A representative farm policy impact model was developed using linear programming and primary survey data. The model was used to estimate farm‐level effects of proposed national government policies aimed at increasing food security through greater bread wheat production. The four policy options analysed included the introduction of a bread wheat variety resistant to an insect pest, an increase in the official bread wheat support price, potentially unlimited availability of nitrogen fertiliser, and rationing of nitrogen fertiliser at 500 kg per farm. The various policies increased farm income between 2.45 and 18 percent, as farmers made trade‐offs between the production of bread wheat and the more profitable durum wheat. Adjustments were made by farmers in the model to meet government‐targeted levels of bread wheat production in order to support national food self‐sufficiency at minimum cost. Simultaneously, the resources freed were used to produce more durum wheat. The results suggest a need to analyse interregional and international comparative advantages in wheat production prior to implementing proposed policies aimed at increasing bread wheat output.
FOOD SECURITY IN KWAZULU: RESULTS OF A HOUSEHOLD‐BASED PROGRAMMING MODEL
Authors: Lyne M. C. , Ortmann G. F. , Vink N.
Published: November 2008

A mathematical programming model of rural KwaZulu, excluding three northern districts, was developed to simulate agricultural production in regions of high and low cropping potential. This model aggregates enterprise levels predicted for four representative households of which two are in the high‐potential region and two in the low‐potential region.

Several economic scenarios are simulated with the model to predict, inter alia, responses to changes in cereal prices, input subsidies, changes in off‐farm employment and a rental market for crop land. Long‐run food supply response is estimated to be inelastic with respect to changes in product and input prices. Higher food prices harm the majority of rural households. Lower input prices have little impact on household welfare. Conversely, it is predicted that a rental market for arable land could have a large positive impact on crop production and would improve household welfare.
DO HIGH DISCOUNT RATES DESTROY TROPICAL FORESTS
Authors: Price C.
Published: November 2008

The short‐term viewpoint implicit in high discount rates seems to favour immediate forest exploitation rather than conservation for perpetual benefits. However, the value of logging revenues increases with a lower discount rate, because of the greater weighting given to investible funds. Thus, in several theoretical models, net present value of logging increases as discount rate is lowered. In practice, however, long‐term costs of logging may also incur the weighting appropriate to investment funds; reinvestment of logging revenues may not actually take place; and lower discount rates may be appropriate for costs but not revenues. These circumstances favour conservation, the more so at lower discount rates.
INTEGRATED DECISION RULES AS FARM MANAGEMENT TOOLS IN SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE IN MALAWI
Authors: Dorward A.
Published: November 2008

Integrated decision rules in small‐holder farm management provide an analytical approach which may encourage more effective communication in farmer‐extension‐research dialogue and thus facilitate the development of more relevant extension messages. An example of integrated decision rules is described, their efficiency as management tools is examined, and an illustration is given of how such an analysis could be used in extension work.
ALTERNATIVE DEFINITIONS OF DEMAND FOR RECREATIONAL ANGLING IN NORTHERN IRELAND
Authors: O'Neill C. E. , Davis J.
Published: November 2008

The effects of three alternative definitions of demand on estimated parameters are explored in a travel‐cost study of aggregate demand for recreational angling in Northern Ireland in 1988. Functions are estimated using individual visits and zonal visitation rates for the number of visits and the number of visitors as alternative demand definitions. The approach using individual visits was found to be the more satisfactory in statistical terms and in relation to estimates of user benefits when compared with a parallel contingency valuation study. It is judged to be the more appropriate approach where there is a well defined and quantifiable user group. However, the modelling of income and substitutes in the functions proved to be unsatisfactory, perhaps due to inadequate specification and measurement of these variables.
MEASURING RESEARCH BENEFITS FROM A REDUCTION OF PALE, SOFT AND EXUDATIVE PORK IN AUSTRALIA
Authors: Voon J. P.
Published: November 2008

In this paper, a closed‐economy model is developed for evaluating the size and the distribution of benefits from research that lowers the mean incidence of pork with pale, soft and exudative (PSE) syndrome. The major finding is that the Australian pig industry has the potential to derive gross research benefits of about A$7 million per year from a one percentage point reduction in the incidence of pork with PSE conditions. About 85 per cent of the total research benefits accrue to pork producers. The implication is that it is profitable for pork producers to invest large sums in order to reduce PSE syndrome in pork.
AGRICULTURE AND THE MACRO‐ECONOMY: PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS
Authors: Peters G. H.
Published: November 2008

Agricultural economics is sometimes criticised for being microcentred. We should not apologise; colleagues who study industrial organisation or many aspects of public sector economics are neither more nor less guilty. The fact remains, however, that agriculture, like all sectors, operates within a macro‐economic framework and there is a growing spate of literature focusing on that broader perspective. It runs in two directions: the farming consequences of macro‐economic developments where much of the attention focuses on exchange rates and interest rates, and the effects of agricultural policies on the economy at large. The objective here is to review the situation. Topical issues considered range from the value of the dollar and the operation of the European exchange‐rate, mechanism, to controversies surrounding the recent GATT negotiations.
AGRICULTURAL TRADE POLICY ANALYSIS AND INTERNATIONAL TRADE THEORY: A REVIEW OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
Authors: MacLaren D.
Published: November 2008

The aim of this review is to determine the extent to which specific recent developments in international trade theory can help to provide fresh insights into how agricultural protectionism might better be analysed. The particular extensions reviewed with respect to their commercial policy implications are: differentiated products; oligopolistic international markets; risk, uncertainty and imperfect information; and the addition of political variables to provide a framework of political economy. In each case the supremacy of free trade as the optimal trade policy choice is weakened. The nature of the optimal trade policy depends on the particular set of assumptions made and on detailed empirical information. In practice such information may be too costly and difficult to obtain, thereby rendering the pursuit of optimal trade policies impracticable. However, by making the political process endogenous and by taking account of income risk, a better description of reality is obtained, one that explains why the advice of economists about the choice of trade policy instruments has been ignored so often by the agricultural policy process.
PERSPECTIVES ON AGRICULTURAL BIOTECHNOLOGY RESEARCH FOR SMALL COUNTRIES
Authors: Herdt R.W.
Published: November 2008

The Rockefeller Foundation currently provides about 7.0 million annually for a comprehensive programme of rice biotechnology research designed to meet the needs of the developing world. Early in the programme deliberate decisions were made by the Foundation to support all the components of research required to make new varieties ready for testing, from determining what plant traits should receive priority to strategic technique development through the incorporation of traits into varieties. Agricultural biotechnology research is risky, high‐cost relative to other agricultural research, has a long time lag to payoff, and requires efficiently functioning ‘conventional’ research to be effective. Most small developing countries do not have the conditions necessary to make productive investments in agricultural biotechnology, except possibly for sharply defined tissue‐culture activities. A wise use of funds would be to concentrate on producing enough indigenous talent to give knowledgeable advice to policy makers on the costs, time lags and possible benefits of agricultural biotechnology.
A DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING MODEL OF EARLY POTATO HARVESTING
Authors: White B. , Dawson P. J.
Published: November 2008

A vegetable producer often faces complex harvest decisions where yield increases through time and varies across crop area, price is determined in erratic seasonal markets, and harvest rate is constrained. In this paper, a simplified two‐period potato harvest problem is developed to define a set of marginal conditions for an optimum. The model is then extended to the multi‐period case and numerical solutions are generated for a representative farm in South Wales using dynamic programming. The model provides a general framework for analysing crop harvesting systems and prescribing marginal changes, such as adjustments in the harvest capacity, which improve profitability over myopic harvest patterns.
NITROGEN, PHOSPHORUS AND LAND DEMANDS AT THE US REGIONAL LEVEL: A PRIMAL APPROACH
Authors: Larson B. A. , Vroomen H.
Published: November 2008

A primal approach for estimating nitrogen, phosphorus and land demands at the regional level is developed based on the first‐order conditions for expected profit maximisation. The approach is applied to State‐level data on corn production in the US Corn Belt. The empirical results suggest that technologies in corn production differ significantly across the region, and, consistent with earlier studies in Ireland, fertiliser demands have become less responsive to own‐price changes over time. These results are consistent with structural and technological changes that have occurred in agriculture.
PRODUCTION CHOICE IN THE ENGLAND AND WALES DAIRY SECTOR
Authors: Tiffin R.
Published: November 2008

This paper seeks to develop the understanding of the ways in which factors other than price influence the production decisions of dairy farmers. A theoretical model based on a profit function is used to emphasise the way in which changes in the farm's technological environment will influence its production choices. The theoretical model is used as the basis of an empirical study of production choice in the England and Wales dairy sector. Elasticities and factor biases are reported.
CO‐INTEGRATION ANALYSIS AND THE DETERMINANTS OF LAND PRICES
Authors: Hallam D. , Machado F. , Rapsomanikis G.
Published: November 2008

This paper outlines the concept of co‐integration and its use in econometric modelling. The techniques of co‐integration analysis are described, with particular emphasis given to test procedures. Co‐integration between two or more variables is taken to imply the existence of a long‐run equilibrium relationship between them. Co‐integration analysis is applied in a re‐examination of recent empirical models of the determination of land prices in England and Wales. The results suggest that recent land price models do not describe longrun relationships between land prices and the explanatory variables selected. Criticisms of the different measurements of returns to land used in studies to date are sustained by the analysis, and a clear role for interest rates in the determination of land prices is indicated.
SUGAR PRICES AND HIGH‐FRUCTOSE CORN SYRUP CONSUMPTION IN THE UNITED STATES
Authors: Barros A. R.
Published: November 2008

The main explanations of the effect of sugar prices on high‐fructose corn syrup (HFCS) consumption in the United States are briefly reviewed. A formal model is presented and estimated in a reduced form for the period 1971‐88. The hypothesis that sugar prices affect HFCS consumption growth is confirmed. The estimated model is used to analyse both the effect on HFCS consumption of the two peaks in sugar prices which occurred in 1976‐75 and in 1980, and the effect of the protection applied to the US sugar market. The model is also used to estimate the extent to which the rapid expansion of US HFCS consumption can be attributed solely to the 1974 peak in the international sugar price.
THE EFFECT OF BSE ON THE REVENUE FROM BEEF FATSTOCK
Authors: Mainland D. D. , Ashworth S. W.
Published: November 2008

Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) has had a considerable effect on the revenues received from finished cattle in the UK. Forecasting models are used to measure the extent of the drop in revenues by determining what the price would have been under normal marketing conditions. The models used are a regression model, which, although representing a simplified view of the market, takes account of price expectations, and an ARIMA‐type model. Comparison between the forecasts of the two models forms part of the validation procedure. The results using the regression forecasts indicated a loss of 8.6 percent while the ARIMA forecasts indicated a loss of 11.8 percent over the year October 1989 to September 1990.
THE SECTORAL INCIDENCE OF PROTECTION AND ZIMBABWEAN AGRICULTURE
Authors: Wiebelt M.
Published: November 2008

This article applies the literature on ‘incidence analysis’ to the case of Zimbabwe, the main hypothesis being that industrial protection indirectly taxes agricultural exports by increasing the price of non‐tradeables. The extent to which industrial protection increases the price of non‐tradeables is measured by Sjaastad's incidence parameter. The study shows that there exists a generally high level of incidence and finds major differences in ‘true protection’ across categories of exportables and individual agricultural export commodities. The calculated price effects of industrial protection indicate substantial indirect disincentives to the production of agricultural exportables. On average, these are more than offset by direct subsidies in the case of beef. For other agricultural export commodities, indirect taxes either overcompensate direct subsidies or exacerbate the negative direct protection resulting in extremely high true taxation.
TESTING THE COMPETITIVENESS OF FOOD PRICE SPREADS
Authors: Azzam A. M.
Published: November 2008

This paper develops and illustrates a test of the competitiveness of food price spreads. The test does not require information on the structure of the food industry or estimation of conjectural variations, but rather the prices of the intermediate inputs used to produce the raw farm product and the prices of the intermediate inputs that are combined with the raw farm product to produce the final consumer good. The test is applied to the US farm/wholesale beef market.
ADOPTION OF A LONG‐GESTATION CROP: EUCALYPTUS GROWERS IN NORTH‐WEST INDIA
Authors: Saxena N. C.
Published: November 2008

A four‐village survey was carried out in 1989‐90 in western Uttar Pradesh to test three hypotheses about the adoption of a newly introduced tree crop of Eucalyptus. First, Eucalyptus is of relatively long gestation, and is hence inconvenient for small farmers. Second, its adoption entails risk, and is more likely to be adopted by those who come from upper castes, have more assets, and diversified sources of incomes. Third, total labour required for growing Eucalyptus is much less than for seasonal crops, and hence it is preferred by labour‐constrained households in general, and non‐resident households in particular. The survey supported these hypotheses. Besides the constraint of gestation, small farmers, despite having caught up with large farmers in the adoption of modern seeds technology in agriculture, did not risk adopting Eucalyptus because, with assured irrigation and fertile soils, annual crops provided a more stable income.
THE INTERNATIONAL LICENSING OF BRANDED FOOD PRODUCTS: A GAME‐THEORETIC ANALYSIS
Authors: Sheldon I. M. , Henderson D. R.
Published: November 2008

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the strategic motivation for food manufacturing firms to license their branded products to overseas firms. Using non‐cooperative game theory, product licensing is modelled in the context of a simple market‐entry game where licensing enters explicitly as a strategy that can be utilised by both a potential licensor and licensee. On the basis of this framework, possible licensing outcomes are derived that describe different motivations for food product licensing.
TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY IN UK AGRICULTURE, 1967‐90
Authors: Thirtle C. , Bottomley P.
Published: November 2008

Indices of total factor productivity (TFP) measure aggregate output per unit of aggregate input, providing a guide to the efficiency of agricultural production. This paper outlines the relationship between production functions and TFP indices. An index for the period 1967‐90, constructed from the UK aggregate agricultural accounts, shows that TFP grew at an average rate of 1.9% per annum and that TFP growth has increased since the UK joined the European Community. At the aggregate level, this change seems to be explained by increased aggregate output and decreased aggregate input, in about equal proportions. Disaggregation shows the intensification effect of the CAP price regime. There has been rapid growth in the output of farm crops, relative to other enterprises, and in the use of agricultural chemicals.
A PORTFOLIO MODEL FOR EVALUATING RISK IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT PROJECTS, WITH AN APPLICATION TO AGRICULTURE IN NIGER
Authors: Schaefer K. C.
Published: November 2008

After a literature review, a planning and project evaluation model is developed that includes both risk and profit considerations but avoids some weaknesses of other mean‐variance models. Agricultural extension and project evaluation results of an application of this model are compared to those of the common profit‐maximisation model. The two sets of results differ on the worth of intercropping, the relative merits of raising small ruminants and cattle, the likelihood of success of a major livestock development programme (which would benefit only wealthier farmers), the benefits of introducing labour‐saving technologies, and the value of teaching/demonstration components in the projects being evaluated.
SOME ILLUSTRATIONS OF CHAOS IN COMMODITY MODELS
Authors: Burton M.
Published: November 2008

This paper develops three commodity models which exhibit chaotic behaviour. The examples chosen are a demand system and two cobweb supply and demand models. The latter differ from the standard forms in that they include risk aversion and a new specification for the formation of price expectations. Simulation of the model highlights three implications of chaos: such systems generate complex time‐paths even if the exogenous variables within the model are held constant; the simulated time path is critically sensitive to the starting value of variables, and parameter values; and the average behaviour of the system is critically sensitive to parameter and exogenous variable values. ‘Critically sensitive’ means that very small changes in parameter or starting values leads to substantial changes in the time paths of the variables in the model. These results suggest that if real commodity sectors can be characterised as chaotic systems, then the ability to conduct forecasting and policy analysis of such sectors will be severely curtailed.
COMMERCIAL FORESTS IN SCOTLAND: AN ECONOMIC APPRAISAL OF REPLANTING
Authors: Macmillan D. C.
Published: November 2008

The economic returns from replanting commercial forests are estimated using an investment model which links physical resource information with economic data, including appropriate monetised values for the major non‐market benefits such as recreation and carbon storage. The area and location of sites in Scotland which are uneconomic, i.e. forests, which if replanted with commercial crops, would fail to achieve the current government target rate of return of 6%, are identified. Depending on the values and assumptions used, between 12% (105,000 ha) and 48% (532,500 ha) of existing forests were found to be uneconomic. Because data on the water resource costs of commercial forests are not available and the higher biodiversity value of natural regeneration could not be included in the opportunity cost of land, these percentages are likely to be lower‐bound estimates. On the grounds of economic efficiency, abandonment to natural regeneration is the most appropriate land use for these sites, but this might be considered undesirable because of land management considerations. Modified grant payments for natural regeneration under the Woodland Grant Scheme to ensure delivery of enhanced non‐market benefits through judicious management and silviculture are suggested. Cautious implementation of this new policy is, however, recommended while further research on the physical suitability of sites for natural regeneration is carried out. More work is also needed to value the non‐use benefits of different forest types.
A REGRESSION TEST OF THE PRESENT VALUE MODEL OF US FARMLAND PRICES
Authors: Tegene A. , Kuchler F.
Published: November 2008

Regression methods previously employed to study stock price movements are used to test how well the present value model under rational expectations explains farmland price movements. Based on data on farmland prices and rents (returns to landownership) covering the period 1921‐89 from three agricultural regions in the United States, the empirical results reject the present value model under rational expectations. These results suggest that farmers may be well‐characterised as displaying satisficing rather than profit‐maximising behaviour.
PRODUCER COOPERATIVES, INPUT PRICING AND LAND ALLOCATION
Authors: Choi E. K. , Feinerman E.
Published: November 2008

This paper considers input pricing rules for a producer cooperative which supplies its members with two inputs: a publicly provided private input (water), and a local public input (road services). An Israeli Moshav which allocates land equally among producers is a good example. The cooperative uses a two‐part pricing rule: a product‐dependent uniform fee (head tax) and a user charge per unit of the private input. Discrimination of head tax among the producer groups is shown to dominate that of user charge in the short run. However, land reallocation among producers can result in a Pareto‐superior pricing rule and the Henry George theorem emerges in the long run. Thus, allowing land leasing while maintaining equal rights to land increases producer welfare.