bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Multiproxy records of climate variability for Kamchatka for the past 400 years
Authors: Solomina O. , Wiles G. , Shiraiwa T. , D'Arrigo R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Tree ring, ice core and glacial geologic histories for the past several centuries offer an opportunity to characterize climate variability and to identify the key climate parameters forcing glacier expansion in Kamchatka over the past 400 years. A newly developed larch ring-width chronology (AD 1632–2004) is presented that is sensitive to past summer temperature variability. Individual low growth years in the larch record are associated with several known and proposed volcanic events from the Northern Hemisphere. The comparison of ring width minima and those of Melt Feature Index of Ushkovsky ice core helps confirm a 1–3 year dating accuracy~for this ice core series over the late 18th to 20th centuries. Decadal variations of low summer temperatures (tree-ring record) and high annual precipitation (ice core record) are broadly consistent with intervals of positive mass balances measured and estimated at several glaciers in 20th century, and with moraine building. According to the tree-ring data the 1860s–1880s were the longest coldest interval in the last 350 years. The latest part of this period (1880s) coincided with the positive anomaly in accumulation. This coincidence led to a positive mass balance, which is most likely responsible for glacier advances and moraine deposition of the end of 19th-early 20th centuries. As well as in some other high latitude regions (Spitsbergen, Polar Urals, Franz Jozef Land etc.) in Kamchatka these advances marked the last millennium glacial maximum. In full agreement with subsequent summer warming trend, inferred both from instrumental and tree ring data, glacier advances since 1880s have been less extensive. The late 18th century glacier expansion coincides with the inferred summer temperature decrease recorded by the ring width chronology. However, both the advance and the summer temperature decrease were less prominent that in the end of 19th century. Comparisons of the glacier history in Kamchatka with records from Alaska and the Canadian Rockies suggests broadly consistent intervals of glacier expansion and inferred summer cooling during solar irradiance minima.
The DO-climate events are probably noise induced: statistical investigation of the claimed 1470 years cycle
Authors: Ditlevsen P. D. , Andersen K. K. , Svensson A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The significance of the apparent 1470 years cycle in the recurrence of the Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, observed in the Greenland ice cores, is debated. Here we present statistical significance tests of this periodicity. The detection of a periodicity relies strongly on the accuracy of the dating of the DO events. Here we use both the new NGRIP GICC05 time scale based on multi-parameter annual layer counting and the GISP2 time scale where the periodicity is most pronounced. For the NGRIP dating the recurrence times are indistinguishable from a random occurrence. This is also the case for the GISP2 dating, except in the case where the DO9 event is omitted from the record.
Numerical reconstructions of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the last glacial-interglacial cycle
Authors: Charbit S. , Ritz C. , Philippon G. , Peyaud V. , Kageyama M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A 3-dimensional thermo-mechanical ice-sheet model is used to simulate the evolution of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets through the last glacial-interglacial cycle. The ice-sheet model is forced by the results from six different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCMs). The climate evolution over the period under study is reconstructed using two climate equilibrium simulations performed for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and for the present-day periods and an interpolation through time between these snapshots using a glacial index calibrated against the GRIP δ18O record. Since it is driven by the timing of the GRIP signal, the temporal evolution of the ice volume and the ice-covered area is approximately the same from one simulation to the other. However, both ice volume curves and spatial distributions of the ice sheets present some major differences from one AGCM forcing to the other. The origin of these differences, which are most visible in the maximum amplitude of the ice volume, is analyzed in terms of differences in climate forcing. This analysis allows for a partial evaluation of the ability of GCMs to simulate climates consistent with the reconstructions of past ice sheets. Although some models properly reproduce the advance or retreat of ice sheets in some specific areas, none of them is able to reproduce both North American or Eurasian ice complexes in full agreement with observed sea-level variations and geological data. These deviations can be attributed to shortcomings in the climate forcing and in the LGM ice-sheet reconstruction used as a boundary condition for GCM runs, but also to missing processes in the ice-sheet model itself.
Simulating sub-Milankovitch climate variations associated with vegetation dynamics
Authors: Tuenter E. , Weber S. L. , Hilgen F. J. , Lourens L. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Climate variability at sub-Milankovitch periods (between 2 and 15 kyr) is studied in a set of transient simulations with a coupled atmosphere/ocean/vegetation model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2). Focus is on the region influenced by the African and Asian summer monsoon. Pronounced variations at periods of about 10 kyr (Asia and Africa) and about 5 kyr (Asia) are found in the monsoonal runoff in response to the precessional forcing. In the model this is due to the following mechanism. For low summer insolation (precession maximum) precipitation is low and desert expands at the expense of grass, while for high insolation (precession minimum) precipitation is high and the tree fraction increases also reducing the grass fraction. This induces sub-Milankovitch variations in the grass fraction and associated variations in the water holding capacity of the soil. The runoff does not exhibit sub-Milankovitch variability when vegetation is kept fixed. High-latitude vegetation also exhibits sub-Milankovitch variability under both obliquity and precessional forcing. We thus hypothesize that sub-Milankovitch variability can occur due to the dynamic response of the vegetation. However, this mechanism should be further tested with more sophisticated climate/vegetation models.
Northern hemisphere winter storm tracks of the Eemian interglacial and the last glacial inception
Authors: Kaspar F. , Spangehl T. , Cubasch U.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Climate simulations of the Eemian interglacial and the last glacial inception have been performed by forcing a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model with insolation patterns of these periods. The parameters of the Earth's orbit have been set to conditions of 125 000 and 115 000 years before present (yr BP). Compared to today, these dates represent periods with enhanced and weakened seasonality of insolation in the northern hemisphere. Here we analyse the simulated change in northern hemisphere winter storm tracks. The change in the orbital configuration has a strong impact on the meridional temperature gradients and therefore on strength and location of the storm tracks. The North Atlantic storm track is strengthened, shifted northward and extends further to the east in the simulation for the Eemian at 125 kyr BP. As one consequence, the northern parts of Europe experience an increase in winter precipitation. The frequency of winter storm days increases over large parts of the North Atlantic including the British Isles and the coastal zones of north-western Europe. Opposite but weaker changes in storm track activity are simulated for 115 kyr BP.
Agricultural sustainability in the semi-arid Near East
Authors: Hole F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Agriculture began in the eastern Mediterranean Levantine Corridor about 11000 years ago toward the end of the Younger Dryas when aridity had diminished wild food resources. During the subsequent Climatic Optimum, agricultural villages spread rapidly but subsequent climatic changes on centennial to millennial scales resulted in striking oscillations in settlement, especially in marginal areas. Natural climate change thus alternately enhanced and diminished the agricultural potential of the land. Growing populations and more intensive land us, both for agriculture and livestock, have led to changes in the structure of vegetation, hydrology, and land quality. Over the millennia, political and economic interventions, warfare and incursions by nomadic herding tribes all impacted sustainability of agriculture and the ability of the land to supports its populations. In much of the region today, agricultural land use is not sustainable given existing technology and national priorities. The Near Eastern case is instructive because of the quality of information, the length of the record, and the pace of modern change.
Thermal log analysis for recognition of ground surface temperature change and water movements
Authors: Verdoya M. , Chiozzi P. , Pasquale V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A joint analysis of surface air temperature series recorded at meteorological stations and temperature-depth profiles logged in nearby boreholes was performed to estimate conditions existing prior to the beginning of the instrumental record in central-northern Italy. The adopted method considers conductive and advective heat transport in a layered medium and provides simultaneous estimates of the pre-observational temperatures and the Darcy velocities. The reconstruction of the ground surface temperature history using a generalised least-squares inversion method was performed for boreholes where hydrological disturbances to measured temperature logs were proved negligible. Both methods revealed generally coherent climatic changes in the whole investigated area. Climatic conditions were generally warm and comparable with the reference period 1960–1990. The absence of the Little Ice Age seems to be a generic feature of the climate in central-northern Italy. Climate change of the 19th century was generally insignificant with well-balanced periods of cold and warmth. The investigated area became significantly colder only at the end of the 19th century. Cooling culminated around 1950 when it was replaced by rapid warming. Recent warming was not inferred only for one of the investigated holes.
Synchronization of ice core records via atmospheric gases
Authors: Blunier T. , Spahni R. , Barnola J.-M. , Chappellaz J. , Loulergue L. , Schwander J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. To interpret new high resolution climate records it becomes more and more important to know about the succession of climate events. Such knowledge is hard to get especially when dealing with different types of climate archives. Even for ice cores a direct synchronization between ice cores from Greenland and Antarctica has not been possible so far due to the lack of time markers occurring in both hemispheres. Fortunately, variations in the time series of global gas records can be used as indirect time markers. Here we discuss in detail the steps that are necessary to synchronize ice cores via global gas records exemplified on the synchronization of the EPICA ice core from Dronning Maud Land to a Greenland record from North GRIP.
Synchronisation of the EDML and EDC ice cores for the last 52 kyr by volcanic signature matching
Authors: Severi M. , Becagli S. , Castellano E. , Morganti A. , Traversi R. , Udisti R. , Ruth U. , Fischer H. , Huybrechts P. , Wolff E. , Parrenin F. , Kaufmann P. , Lambert F. , Steffensen J. P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A common time scale for the EPICA ice cores from Dome C (EDC) and Dronning Maud Land (EDML) has been established. Since the EDML core was not drilled on a dome, the development of the EDML1 time scale for the EPICA ice core drilled in Dronning Maud Land was based on the creation of a detailed stratigraphic link between EDML and EDC, which was dated by a simpler 1D ice-flow model. The synchronisation between the two EPICA ice cores was done through the identification of several common volcanic signatures. This paper describes the rigorous method, using the signature of volcanic sulfate, which was employed for the last 52 kyr of the record. We estimated the discrepancies between the modelled EDC and EDML glaciological age scales during the studied period, by evaluating the ratio R of the apparent duration of temporal intervals between pairs of isochrones. On average R ranges between 0.8 and 1.2 corresponding to an uncertainty of up to 20% in the estimate of the time duration in at least one of the two ice cores. Significant deviations of R up to 1.4–1.5 are observed between 18 and 28 kyr before present (BP), where present is defined as 1950. At this stage our approach does not allow us unequivocally to find out which of the models is affected by errors, but assuming that the thinning function at both sites and accumulation history at Dome C (which was drilled on a dome) are correct, this anomaly can be ascribed to a complex spatial accumulation variability (which may be different in the past compared to the present day) upstream of the EDML core.
Atmospheric multidecadal variations in the North Atlantic realm: proxy data, observations, and atmospheric circulation model studies
Authors: Grosfeld K. , Lohmann G. , Rimbu N. , Fraedrich K. , Lunkeit F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We investigate the spatial and temporal characteristics of multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic realm, using observational data, proxy data and model results. The dominant pattern of multidecadal variability of SST depicts a monopolar structure in the North Atlantic during the instrumental period with cold (warm) phases during 1900–1925 and 1970–1990 (1870–1890 and 1940–1960). Two atmospheric general circulation models of different complexity forced with global SST over the last century show SLP anomaly patterns from the warm and cold phases of the North Atlantic similar to the corresponding observed patterns. The analysis of a sediment core from Cariaco Basin, a coral record from the northern Red Sea, and a long-term sea level pressure (SLP) reconstruction reveals that the multidecadal mode of the atmospheric circulation characterizes climate variability also in the pre-industrial era. The analyses of SLP reconstruction and proxy data depict a persistent atmospheric mode at least over the last 300 years, where SLP shows a dipolar structure in response to monopolar North Atlantic SST, in a similar way as the models' responses do. The combined analysis of observational and proxy data with model experiments provides an understanding of multidecadal climate modes during the late Holocene. The related patterns are useful for the interpretation of proxy data in the North Atlantic realm.
Increased aeolian activity during humidity shifts as recorded in a raised bog in south-west Sweden during the past 1700 years
Authors: de Jong R. , Schoning K. , Björck S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Analyses of testate amoebae and aeolian sediment influx (ASI) were used to reconstruct effective humidity changes and aeolian activity in the coastal zone of south-west Sweden. Cores were taken from an ombrotrophic peat sequence from the Undarsmosse bog. Since both types of analysis were carried out on the same core, a direct comparison between humidity fluctuations in the bog and aeolian activity was possible, potentially providing detailed information on atmospheric circulation changes in this region. Relatively wet bog surface conditions occurred from around 1500 to 1230 and 770 to 380 cal. yrs BP, whereas dry conditions dominated from ca. 1630 to 1530, 1160 to 830 and 300 to 50 cal. yrs BP. The transitions between these phases occurred within 60–100 years and are characterised by a major change in the testate amoebae assemblages. A watertable reconstruction was used to study the hydrological changes at the bog surface in more detail. ASI peak events were reconstructed around 1450, 1150, 850 and after 370 cal. yrs BP. Most interestingly, these aeolian activity peaks started during the recorded hydrological transitions, regardless of the direction of these shifts. Our results therefore suggest that humidity shifts in this region were associated with temporary intensifications of atmospheric circulation during the past 1700 years. Several ASI peaks apparently coincide with reduced solar activity, possibly suggesting a solar related cause for some of the observed events.
Repeated temperature logs from Czech, Slovenian and Portuguese borehole climate observatories
Authors: Šafanda J. , Rajver D. , Correia A. , Dĕdeček P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Two borehole climate observatories were established in Slovenia and Portugal within a joint Czech-Slovenian-Portuguese project in the years 2003-2005. Together with the older Czech observatory, which has been operating since the year 1994, they monitor air, soil and bedrock temperatures with the aim of studying air-ground coupling and the downward propagation of the surface temperature changes. We report here on repeated temperature logs carried out within 6 boreholes at the sites of the observatories and their surroundings within a time span of 8–20 years (1985–2005). The repeated logs revealed subsurface warming in all the boreholes amounting to 0.2–0.6°C below 20 m depth. The compatibility of the observed temporal changes of subsurface temperature with surface air temperature (SAT) series measured in Prague (since 1771), Ljubljana (since 1851) and Lisbon (since 1856) was checked by comparing repeated temperature logs with synthetic profiles that were calculated using SAT series as forcing functions. The depth of the Czech borehole (140 m) and the Portuguese borehole (180 m) was sufficient for a reconstruction of the ground surface temperature (GST) history of the last 150–200 years. Reconstructed GSTs were compared with the SAT series measured in Prague and Lisbon, respectively. The reconstructed histories reproduce reasonably well the amplitude of the recent warming inferred from the meteorological data, 1–1.5°C above the long-term mean. The depth (100 m) of the four repeatedly logged Slovenian boreholes was too shallow for inversion, but a climatic reconstruction was carried out for a deeper borehole, logged in 2006 and located within 5 km from the Slovenian observatory. The obtained GST history was compared with SAT series from Ljubljana.
Detecting human impacts on the flora, fauna, and summer monsoon of Pleistocene Australia
Authors: Miller G. H. , Magee J. W. , Fogel M. L. , Gagan M. K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The moisture balance across northern and central Australia is dominated by changes in the strength of the Australian Summer Monsoon. Lake-level records that record changes in monsoon strength on orbital timescales are most consistent with a Northern Hemisphere insolation control on monsoon strength, a result consistent with recent modeling studies. A weak Holocene monsoon relative to monsoon strength 65–60 ka, despite stronger forcing, suggests a changed monsoon regime after 60 ka. Shortly after 60 ka humans colonized Australia and all of Australia's largest mammals became extinct. Between 60 and 40 ka Australian climate was similar to present and not changing rapidly. Consequently, attention has turned toward plausible human mechanisms for the extinction, with proponents for over-hunting, ecosystem change, and introduced disease. To differentiate between these options we utilize isotopic tracers of diet preserved in eggshells of two large, flightless birds to track the status of ecosystems before and after human colonization. More than 800 dated eggshells of the Australian emu (Dromaius novaehollandiae), an opportunistic, dominantly herbivorous feeder, provide a 140-kyr dietary reconstruction that reveals unprecedented reduction in the bird's food resources about 50 ka, coeval in three distant regions. These data suggest a tree/shrub savannah with occasionally rich grasslands was converted abruptly to the modern desert scrub. The diet of the heavier, extinct Genyornis newtoni, derived from >550 dated eggshells, was more restricted than in co-existing Dromaius, implying a more specialized feeding strategy. We suggest that generalist feeders, such as Dromaius, were able to adapt to a changed vegetation regime, whereas more specialized feeders, such as Genyornis, became extinct. We speculate that ecosystem collapse across arid and semi-arid zones was a consequence of systematic burning by early humans. We also suggest that altered climate feedbacks linked to changes in vegetation may have weakened the penetration of monsoon moisture into the continental interior, explaining the failure of the Holocene monsoon. Climate modeling suggests a vegetation shift may reduce monsoon rain in the interior by as much as 50%.
Mid-Holocene climate change in Europe: a data-model comparison
Authors: Brewer S. , Guiot J. , Torre F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We present here a comparison between the outputs of 25 General Circulation Models run for the mid-Holocene period (6 ka BP) with a set of palaeoclimate reconstructions based on over 400 fossil pollen sequences distributed across the European continent. Three climate parameters were available (moisture availability, temperature of the coldest month and growing degree days), which were grouped together using cluster analysis to provide regions of homogenous climate change. Each model was then investigated to see if it reproduced 1) similar patterns of change and 2) the correct location of these regions. A fuzzy logic distance was used to compare the output of the model with the data, which allowed uncertainties from both the model and data to be taken into account. The models were compared by the magnitude and direction of climate change within the region as well as the spatial pattern of these changes. The majority of the models are grouped together, suggesting that they are becoming more consistent. A test against a set of zero anomalies (no climate change) shows that, although the models are unable to reproduce the exact patterns of change, they all produce the correct signs of change observed for the mid-Holocene.
Surface thermal perturbations of the recent past at low latitudes – inferences based on borehole temperature data from Eastern Brazil
Authors: Hamza V. M. , Cavalcanti A. S. B. , Benyosef L. C. C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Borehole temperature data from the eastern parts of Brazil has been examined in an attempt to extract information on surface thermal perturbations of the recent past at low latitudes. Forward models were employed in the analysis of temperature logs from 17 localities and, in addition, Bayesian inverse modeling was carried out for data from 14 selected sites. The model results have allowed determination of the magnitude as well as the duration of ground surface temperature (GST) changes in three major geographic zones of Brazil. Prominent among such changes are the warming episodes that occurred over much of the subtropical highland regions in the southeastern parts of Brazil. The present magnitude of GST changes in this region are in the range of 2 to 3.5°C but have had their beginning during the early decades of the 20th century. Nearly similar trends are also seen in temperature-depth profiles of bore holes in the subtropical humid zones of the interior and coastal areas of southern Brazil. The data from semi arid zones of northeast Brazil also indicate occurrence of surface warming events but the magnitudes are in the range of 1.4 to 2.2°C while the duration of the warming event is larger, extending back into the last decades of the 19th century. There are indications that changes in both climate and vegetation cover contribute to variations in GST. Thus the magnitudes of GST variations are relatively large in localities which have undergone changes in vegetation cover. Also there are indications that GST changes are practically insignificant in areas of tropical rain forest. Another important result emerging from model studies is that the climate was relatively cooler during the 17th and 18th centuries. The climate histories, deduced from geothermal data, are found to be consistent with results of available meteorological records in southern Brazil. Comparative studies also indicate that the magnitudes and duration of recent climate changes in southern and eastern Brazil are similar to those found in other continental areas such as North America, Asia and Europe.
Tropical cooling and the onset of North American glaciation
Authors: Huybers P. , Molnar P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We offer a test of the idea that gradual cooling in the eastern tropical Pacific led to cooling of North America and the initiation of glaciation ~3 Myr ago. Using modern climate data we estimate how warming of the eastern tropical Pacific affects North American temperature and ice-ablation. Assuming that the modern relationship holds over the past millions of years, a ~4°C warmer eastern tropical Pacific between 3–5 Ma would increase ablation in northern North America by approximately two meters per year. By comparison, a similar estimate of the ablation response to variations in Earth's obliquity gives less than half the magnitude of the tropically-induced change. Considering that variations in Earth's obliquity appear sufficient to initiate glaciations between ~1–3 Ma, we infer that the warmer eastern equatorial Pacific prior to 3 Ma suffices to preclude glaciation.
The origin of the 1500-year climate cycles in Holocene North-Atlantic records
Authors: Debret M. , Bout-Roumazeilles V. , Grousset F. , Desmet M. , McManus J. F. , Massei N. , Sebag D. , Petit J.-R. , Copard Y. , Trentesaux A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Since the first suggestion of 1500-year cycles in the advance and retreat of glaciers (Denton and Karlen, 1973), many studies have uncovered evidence of repeated climate oscillations of 2500, 1500, and 1000 years. During last glacial period, natural climate cycles of 1500 years appear to be persistent (Bond and Lotti, 1995) and remarkably regular (Mayewski et al., 1997; Rahmstorf, 2003), yet the origin of this pacing during the Holocene remains a mystery (Rahmstorf, 2003), making it one of the outstanding puzzles of climate variability. Solar variability is often considered likely to be responsible for such cyclicities, but the evidence for solar forcing is difficult to evaluate within available data series due to the shortcomings of conventional time-series analyses. However, the wavelets analysis method is appropriate when considering non-stationary variability. Here we show by the use of wavelets analysis that it is possible to distinguish solar forcing of 1000- and 2500- year oscillations from oceanic forcing of 1500-year cycles. Using this method, the relative contribution of solar-related and ocean-related climate influences can be distinguished throughout the 10 000 yr Holocene intervals since the last ice age. These results reveal that the 1500-year climate cycles are linked with the oceanic circulation and not with variations in solar output as previously argued (Bond et al., 2001). In this light, previously studied marine sediment (Bianchi and McCave, 1999; Chapman and Shackleton, 2000; Giraudeau et al., 2000), ice core (O'Brien et al., 1995; Vonmoos et al., 2006) and dust records (Jackson et al., 2005) can be seen to contain the evidence of combined forcing mechanisms, whose relative influences varied during the course of the Holocene. Circum-Atlantic climate records cannot be explained exclusively by solar forcing, but require changes in ocean circulation, as suggested previously (Broecker et al., 2001; McManus et al., 1999).
Millennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation
Authors: Juckes M. N. , Allen M. R. , Briffa K. R. , Esper J. , Hegerl G. C. , Moberg A. , Osborn T. J. , Weber S. L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. There has been considerable recent interest in paleoclimate reconstructions of the temperature history of the last millennium. A wide variety of techniques have been used. The interrelation among the techniques is sometimes unclear, as different studies often use distinct data sources as well as distinct methodologies. Here recent work is reviewed and some new calculations performed with an aim to clarifying the consequences of the different approaches used. A range of proxy data collections introduced by different authors is used to estimate Northern Hemispheric annual mean temperatures with two reconstruction algorithms: (1) inverse regression and, (2) compositing followed by variance matching (CVM). It is found that inverse regression tends to give large weighting to a small number of proxies and that the second approach (CVM) is more robust to varying proxy input. The choice of proxy records is one reason why different reconstructions show different ranges. A reconstruction using 13 proxy records extending back to AD 1000 shows a maximum pre-industrial temperature of 0.25 K (relative to the 1866 to 1970 mean). The standard error on this estimate, based on the residual in the calibration period, is 0.14 K. Instrumental temperatures for two recent years (1998 and 2005) have exceeded the pre-industrial estimated maximum by more than 4 standard deviations of the calibration period residual.
Thermal signal propagation in soils in Romania: conductive and non-conductive processes
Authors: Demetrescu C. , Nitoiu D. , Boroneant C. , Marica A. , Lucaschi B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Temperature data recorded in 2002 and 2003 at 10 stations out of the 70 available in the Romanian automatic weather stations network are presented and analyzed in terms of the heat transfer from air to underground. The air temperature at 2 m, the soil temperatures at 0, 5, 10, 20, 50 and 100 cm below the surface as well as rain fall and snow cover thickness have been monitored. The selected locations sample various climate environments in Romania. Preliminary analytical modelling shows that soil temperatures track air temperature variations at certain locations and, consequently, the heat transfer is by conduction, while at other stations processes such as soil freezing and/or solar radiation heating play an important part in the heat flux balance at the air/soil interface. However, the propagation of the annual thermal signal in the uppermost one meter of soil is mainly by conduction; the inferred thermal diffusivity for 8 stations with continuous time series at all depth levels ranges from 3 to 10×10−7 m2 s−1.
Climate model boundary conditions for four Cretaceous time slices
Authors: Sewall J. O. , van de Wal R. S. W. , van der Zwan K. , van Oosterhout C. , Dijkstra H. A. , Scotese C. R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. General circulation models (GCMs) are useful tools for investigating the characteristics and dynamics of past climates. Understanding of past climates contributes significantly to our overall understanding of Earth's climate system. One of the most time consuming, and often daunting, tasks facing the paleoclimate modeler, particularly those without a geological background, is the production of surface boundary conditions for past time periods. These boundary conditions consist of, at a minimum, continental configurations derived from plate tectonic modeling, topography, bathymetry, and a vegetation distribution. Typically, each researcher develops a unique set of boundary conditions for use in their simulations. Thus, unlike simulations of modern climate, basic assumptions in paleo surface boundary conditions can vary from researcher to researcher. This makes comparisons between results from multiple researchers difficult and, thus, hinders the integration of studies across the broader community. Unless special changes to surface conditions are warranted, researcher dependent boundary conditions are not the most efficient way to proceed in paleoclimate investigations. Here we present surface boundary conditions (land-sea distribution, paleotopography, paleobathymetry, and paleovegetation distribution) for four Cretaceous time slices (120 Ma, 110 Ma, 90 Ma, and 70 Ma). These boundary conditions are modified from base datasets to be appropriate for incorporation into numerical studies of Earth's climate and are available in NetCDF format upon request from the lead author. The land-sea distribution, bathymetry, and topography are based on the 1°×1° (latitude × longitude) paleo Digital Elevation Models (paleoDEMs) of Christopher Scotese. Those paleoDEMs were adjusted using the paleogeographical reconstructions of Ronald Blakey (Northern Arizona University) and published literature and were then modified for use in GCMs. The paleovegetation distribution is based on published data and reconstructions and consultation with members of the paleobotanical community and is represented as generalized biomes that should be easily translatable to many vegetation-modeling schemes.
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summer sea ice projections for the 21st century
Authors: Goosse H. , Driesschaert E. , Fichefet T. , Loutre M.-F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The summer sea ice extent strongly decreased in the Arctic over the last decades. This decline is very likely to continue in the future but uncertainty of projections is very large. An ensemble of experiments with the climate model LOVECLIM using 5 different parameter sets has been performed to show that summer sea ice changes during the early Holocene (8 kyr BP) and the 21st century are strongly linked, allowing for the reduction of this uncertainty. Using the limited number of records presently available for the early Holocene, simulations presenting very large changes over the 21st century could reasonably be rejected. On the other hand, simulations displaying low to moderate changes during the second half of the 20th century (and also over the 21st century) are not consistent with recent observations. Using this very complementary information based on observations during both the early Holocene and the last decades, the most realistic projection with LOVECLIM indicates a nearly disappearance of the sea ice in summer at the end of the 21st century for a moderate increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results thus strongly indicate that additional proxy records of the early Holocene sea ice changes, in particular in the central Arctic Basin, would help to improve our projections of summer sea ice evolution and that the simulation at 8 kyr BP should be considered as a standard test for models aiming at simulating those future summer sea ice changes in the Arctic.
Modeling variations of marine reservoir ages during the last 45 000 years
Authors: Franke J. , Paul A. , Schulz M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. When dating marine samples with 14C, the reservoir-age effect is usually assumed to be constant, although atmospheric 14C production rate and ocean circulation changes cause temporal and spatial reservoir-age variations. These lead to dating errors, which can limit the interpretation of cause and effect in paleoclimate data. We used a global ocean circulation model forced by transient atmospheric Δ14C variations to calculate reservoir ages for the last 45 000 years for a present day-like and a last glacial maximum-like ocean circulation. A ~30% reduced Atlantic meridonal overturning circulation leads to increased reservoir ages by up to ~500 years in high latitudes. Temporal variations are proportional to the absolute value of the reservoir age; regions with large reservoir age also show large variation. Temporal variations range between ~300 years in parts of the subtropics and ~1000 years in the Southern Ocean. For tropical regions, which are generally assumed to have nearly stable reservoir ages, the model suggests variations of several hundred years.
Precipitation record since AD 1600 from ice cores on the central Tibetan Plateau
Authors: Yao T. , Duan K. , Xu B. , Wang N. , Guo X. , Yang X.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Lack of reliable long-term precipitation record from the northern Tibetan Plateau has constrained our understanding of precipitation variations in this region. We drilled an ice core on the Puruogangri Ice Field in the central Tibetan Plateau in 2000 to reveal the precipitation variations. The well dated part of the core extends back to AD 1600, allowing us to construct a 400-year annual accumulation record. This record shows that the central Tibetan plateau experienced a drier period with an average annual precipitation of ~300 mm in the 19th century, compared to ~450 mm in the wetter periods during 1700–1780 and the 20th century. This pattern agrees with precipitation reconstructions from the Dunde and Guliya ice cores on the northern Plateau but differs from that found in the Dasuopu ice cores from the southern Plateau The north-south contrasts in precipitation reconstruction reveals difference in moisture origin between the south Tibetan Plateau dominated by the Asian monsoon and the north Tibetan Plateau dominated by the continental recycling and the westerlies.
Uniform climate development between the subtropical and subpolar Northeast Atlantic across marine isotope stage 11
Authors: Helmke J. P. , Bauch H. A. , Röhl U. , Kandiano E. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Proxy records from a core site off Northwest Africa were generated and compared with data from the subpolar Northeast Atlantic to unravel some main climatic features of interglacial marine isotope stage (MIS) 11 (423–362 ka). The records point to an almost 25 kyr lasting full interglacial period during stage 11 that was preceded by a considerably long glacial-interglacial transition (Termination V). Off NW Africa, a strong reduction of terrestrially derived iron input is noted after 420 ka suggesting a pronounced increase in continental humidity and vegetation cover over Northwest Africa. In analogy to the Holocene climate of the region, this early wet phase of MIS 11 was likely associated with enhanced influence of the West African monsoon system on the Saharan-Sahel region which led to both a reduction in trade wind intensity off NW Africa and the formation of sapropel S11 in the Mediterranean Sea. A detailed comparison with data from the subpolar North Atlantic indicates a remarkable coherent timing for the main environmental changes in both regions giving evidence for strong interglacial climate connection between the low and high latitude North Atlantic. Although our records of MIS 11 compare well with the Holocene in terms of some major climate characteristics there are distinct differences in the temporal evolution of each peak warm interval. This suggests that care should be taken when using MIS 11 as analogue to forecast future interglacial conditions.
Precipitation variations of Longxi, northeast margin of Tibetan Plateau since AD 960 and their relationship with solar activity
Authors:   Liangcheng Tan,   Yanjun Cai,   Liang Yi,   Zhisheng An,   Li Ai
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The precipitation variations of Longxi area, northeast margin of the Tibetan Plateau since AD 960 are reconstructed from Chinese historical documentary records. These records show that since AD 960, the precipitation of Longxi decreased and reached the lowest level at the end of the 17th and the 18th centuries. After this period, the precipitation gradually increased. The three short wet periods of Longxi in the last millennium were: from the end of the 10th century to the early years of the 11th century, from the end of the 12th century to the early years of the 13th century and during the first half of the 20th century. The precipitation variations coincide well with variations of the Northern Hemisphere temperature and the atmospheric 14C concentration, as well as the averaged 10Be concentration and the reconstructed solar modulation record which show that solar activity may be an important driving force of the precipitation variations of Longxi on multi-decadal to centennial scales during the last millennium. Solar activity controls the motion of the north edge of the Asian summer monsoon by affecting the Asia summer monsoon intensity, the East Asian winter monsoon intensity and the locations of westerlies, thus further dominating precipitation variations of Longxi. Synchronous variations of Longxi precipitation and Northern Hemisphere temperature may also be ascribed to the same control of solar activity.
Anticyclonic atmospheric circulation as an analogue for the warm and dry mid-Holocene summer climate in central Scandinavia
Authors: Antonsson K. , Chen D. , Seppä H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Climate reconstructions from central Scandinavia suggest that annual and summer temperatures were rising during the early Holocene and reached their maximum after 8000 cal yr BP. The period with highest temperatures was characterized by increasingly low lake-levels and dry climate, with driest and warmest conditions at about 7000 to 5000 cal yr BP. We compare the reconstructed climate pattern with simulations of a climate model for the last 9000 years and show that the model, which is predominantly driven by solar insolation patterns, suggests less prominent mid-Holocene dry and warm period in Scandinavia than the reconstructions. As an additional explanation for the reconstructed climate, we argue that the trend from the moist early Holocene towards dry and warm mid-Holocene was caused by a changing atmospheric circulation pattern with a mid-Holocene dominance of summer-time anticyclonic circulation. An extreme case of the anticyclonic conditions is the persistent blocking high, an atmospheric pressure pattern that at present often causes long spells of particularly dry and warm summer weather, or "Indian summers". The argument is tested with daily instrumental temperature and precipitation records in central Sweden and an objective circulation classification based on surface air pressure over the period 1900–2002. We conclude that the differences between the precipitation and temperature climates under anticyclonic and non-anticyclonic conditions are significant. Further, warm and dry combination, as indicated by mid-Holocene reconstructions, is a typical pattern under anticyclonic conditions. These results indicate that the presented hypothesis for the mid-Holocene climate is likely valid.
Reconstructing glacier-based climates of LGM Europe and Russia – Part 2: A dataset of LGM precipitation/temperature relations derived from degree-day modelling of palaeo glaciers
Authors: Allen R. , Siegert M. J. , Payne A. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The study of European and Russian Quaternary glacial-geological evidence during the last 15 years has generated sufficient data to use former glacial extent as a proxy for Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) climate (precipitation and temperature) at a continental scale. Utilisation of such data is relevant for two reasons. First, continental to global scale proxy reconstructions of past climate are an important tool in the assessment of retrospective general circulation model (GCM) simulations. Second, the development of a multi-proxy approach will result in a more robust proxy based climate signal. A new and independent dataset of 36 LGM precipitation and temperature relationships derived from European and Russian mountain regions is presented in this paper. A simple glacier-climate model was used to establish the optimum LGM precipitation/temperature conditions for each region from a suite of over 4000 model climates using the principle of zero cumulative mass balance. Clear regional trends are present in the reconstructed LGM precipitation and temperature curves; assuming present precipitation temperature anomalies north of the Alps are 2°C and 5°C larger than those in the western and eastern Mediterranean, respectively. In Russia the model results suggest that the climates in both the Arctic Urals and Puterana Plateau were probably conducive to the existence of small mountain glaciers at the LGM.
Monsoon response to changes in Earth's orbital parameters: comparisons between simulations of the Eemian and of the Holocene
Authors: Braconnot P. , Marzin C. , Grégoire L. , Mosquet E. , Marti O.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Monsoon is the major manifestation of the seasonal cycle in the tropical regions, and there is a wide range of evidence from marine and terrestrial data that monsoon characteristics are affected by changes in the Earth's orbital parameters. We consider 3 periods in the Eemian and 3 in the Holocene that present some analogy in the Earth's orbital configuration in terms of obliquity and precession. Simulations with the IPSL_CM4 ocean-atmosphere coupled model allow us to discuss the response of the Indian and African monsoon in terms of amplitude and response to the insolation forcing. Results show that precession plays a large role in shaping the seasonal timing of the monsoon system. Differences are found in the response of the two sub-systems. They result from the phase relationship between the insolation forcing and the seasonal characteristics of each sub-system. Also the response of the Indian Ocean is very different in terms of temperature and salinity when the change in insolation occurs at the summer solstice or later in the year. Monsoon has a large contribution to heat and water transports. It is shown that the relative importance of monsoon on the change in the energetic of the tropical regions also vary with precession.
Strong summer monsoon during the cool MIS-13
Authors: Yin Q. Z. , Guo Z. T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The δ18O record in deep-sea sediments show a significant reduced amplitude of the ice volume variations before Marine Isotope Stage 11, about 400 ka ago, with less warm interglacials and less cold glacials. The deuterium temperature and the greenhouse gases records in the Antarctic ice cores show the same feature. As the reduction in the amplitude of climate and greenhouse gases concentration variations before 400 ka BP is present in both deep-sea and ice cores, it is tempting to conclude that this is a worldwide phenomenon. This is not necessarily true, at least as far as some of the records, in particular of China and Europe, are concerned. The loess in northern China, the sedimentary core in the eastern Tibetan Plateau and the palaeosols in southern China all record an unusually warm and wet climate during Marine Isotope Stage 13, indicating an extremely strong East Asian summer monsoon. The pollen record from Europe shows that the climatic conditions during the interglacials previous to Marine Isotope Stage 11 are at least as warm as the younger interglacials. During Marine Isotope Stage 13, unusually strong African and Indian monsoon are recorded in the sediments of the equatorial Indian Ocean and of the Mediterranean Sea. Other extreme climate events are also recorded in sediment cores of the equatorial Atlantic, the Pacific, the subtropical South Atlantic Ocean and in the Lake Baikal of Siberia.