bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Continuous Weak Convergence and Stochastic Equicontinuity Results for Integrated Processes with an Application to the Estimation of a Regression Model
Authors: Saikkonen Pentti
Published: March 2009

The concepts of continuous and uniform weak convergence and versions of stochastic equicontinuity are discussed in the context of integrated processes of order one. The considered processes depend on a parameter vector in a specific fashion which is relevant for integrated and cointegrated systems with non-linearities in parameters. The results of the paper can be applied to obtain asymptotic distributions of estimators and test statistics in such systems. In a correctly specified cointegrated Gaussian system, this can be done in a very convenient way. Combining the results of this paper with available general maximum likelihood estimation theories readily shows that the maximum likelihood estimator is asymptotically optimal with a mixed normal limiting distribution. The usefulness of this approach is demonstrated by analyzing a regression model with autoregressive moving average errors and strictly exogenous regressors which may be either integrated of order one, asymptotically stationary, or nonstochastic and bounded.
Asymptotic Expansions for Random Walks with Normal Errors
Authors: Knight J.L. , Satchell S.E.
Published: March 2009

The asymptotic distribution of the least-squares estimators in the random walk model was first found by White [17] and is described in terms of functional of Brownian motion with no closed form expression known. Evans and Savin [5,6] and others have examined numerically both the asymptotic and finite sample distribution. The purpose of this paper is to derive an asymptotic expansion for the distribution. Our approach is in contrast to Phillips [12,13] who has already derived some terms in a general expansion by analyzing the functionals. We proceed by assuming that the errors are normally distributed and expand the characteristic function directly. Then, via numerical integration, we invert the characteristic function to find the distribution. The approximation is shown to be extremely accurate for all sample sizes ≥25, and can be used to construct simple tests for the presence of a unit root in a univariate time series model. This could have useful applications in applied economics.
Median Unbiasedness of Estimators of Panel Data Censored Regression Models
Authors: Campbell Jeffrey R. , Honoré Bo E.
Published: March 2009

This note proves that the estimator of panel data censored regression models proposed in Honoré [2] is median unbiased when only one parameter is estimated. This result is obtained without parametric assumptions about the distribution of the error terms.
A Note on Asymptotic Power Calculations in Nearly Nonstationary Time Series
Authors: Swensen Anders Rygh
Published: March 2009

In the AR(2) model, with a double root at unity, we consider the asymptotic distribution of the likelihood ratio with respect to a nearly nonstationary alternative. It is shown how the distribution can be represented as a Radon-Nikodym derivative of an Ito process with respect to Brownian motion. Using this result, we point out how standard contiguity arguments can be applied to obtain a representation of the asymptotic power function in nearly nonstationary alternatives.
A Comparison of the Stein-Rule and Positive-Part Stein-Rule Estimators in a Misspecified Linear Regression Model
Authors: Ohtani Kazuhiro
Published: March 2009

In this paper, we examine the performance of the predictive risk of the Steinrule (SR) and positive-part Stein-rule (PSR) estimators when relevant regressors are omitted in the specified model. The exact formula of the predictive risk of the PSR estimator is derived, and the sufficient condition for the PSR estimator to dominate the SR estimator under a specification error is given. It is shown by numerical computation that the PSR estimator seems to be the best choice among the OLS, SR, and PSR estimators even when there are omitted variables.
On the Noninvertible Moving Average Time Series with Infinite Variance
Authors: Chan Ngai Hang
Published: March 2009

The limiting distribution of the least squares estimate of the derived process of a noninvertible and nearly noninvertible moving average model with infinite variance innovations is established as a functional of a Lévy process. The form of the limiting law depends on the initial value of the innovation and the stable index α. This result enables one to perform asymptotic testing for the presence of a unit root for a noninvertible moving average model through the constructed derived process under the null hypothesis. It provides not only a parallel analog of its autoregressive counterparts, but also a useful alternative to determine “over-differencing” for time series that exhibit heavy-tailed phenomena.
Testing the Goodness of Fit of a Parametric Density Function by Kernel Method
Authors: Fan Yanqin
Published: March 2009

Let F denote a distribution function defined on the probability space (Ω,,P), which is absolutely continuous with respect to the Lebesgue measure in Rd with probability density function f. Let f0(·,β) be a parametric density function that depends on an unknown p × 1 vector β. In this paper, we consider tests of the goodness-of-fit of f0(·,β) for f(·) for some β based on (i) the integrated squared difference between a kernel estimate of f(·) and the quasimaximum likelihood estimate of f0(·,β) denoted by In and (ii) the integrated squared difference between a kernel estimate of f(·) and the corresponding kernel smoothed estimate of f0(·, β) denoted by Jn. It is shown in this paper that the amount of smoothing applied to the data in constructing the kernel estimate of f(·) determines the form of the test statistic based on In. For each test developed, we also examine its asymptotic properties including consistency and the local power property. In particular, we show that tests developed in this paper, except the first one, are more powerful than the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test under the sequence of local alternatives introduced in Rosenblatt [12], although they are less powerful than the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test under the sequence of Pitman alternatives. A small simulation study is carried out to examine the finite sample performance of one of these tests.
U-Processes in the Analysis of a Generalized Semiparametric Regression Estimator
Authors: Sherman Robert P.
Published: March 2009

We prove -consistency and asymptotic normality of a generalized semiparametric regression estimator that includes as special cases Ichimura's semiparametric least-squares estimator for single index models, and the estimator of Klein and Spady for the binary choice regression model. Two function expansions reveal a type of U-process structure in the criterion function; then new U-process maximal inequalities are applied to establish the requisite stochastic equicontinuity condition. This method of proof avoids much of the technical detail required by more traditional methods of analysis. The general framework suggests other -consistent and asymptotically normal estimators.
A Bayesian Analysis Of The Unit Root Hypothesis Within An Unobserved Components Model
Authors: Zivot Eric
Published: March 2009

In this paper we extend some of Phillips's [4] results to nonlinear unobserved components models and develop a posterior odds ratio test of the unit root hypothesis based on flat and Jeffreys priors. In contrast to the analysis presented by Schotman and van Dijk [9], we utilize a nondegenerate structural representation of the components model that allows us to determine well-behaved Jeffreys priors, posterior densities under flat priors and Jeffreys priors, and posterior odds ratios for the unit root hypothesis without a proper prior for the level parameter. The analysis highlights the importance of the treatment of initial values for inference concerning stationarity and unit roots.
Estimation of Cointegrated Systems with I(2) Processes
Authors: Kitamura Yuichi
Published: March 2009

This paper considers the properties of systems likelihood procedures for cointegrated systems when the I(2) variables are present. Two alternative methods are proposed: one is based on the full system likelihood, whereas another is based on the subsystem likelihood. By eliminating all unit roots in the system by the use of prior information concerning the presence of unit roots, these procedures yield estimates whose asymptotic distributions are mixed normal, free from nuisance parameters, and median-unbiased. Both methods are extensions of a full system maximum likelihood procedure by Phillips (1991a) to I(2) models. Three cases of cointegration with I(2) variables are considered in order to cover a wide variety of cointegration relationships. A triangular ECM representation and the two ML estimates are derived for each case, and the asymptotics are discussed as well. The asymptotic efficiency concerning the two estimates are considered.
A New Test for Nonstationarity Against the Stable Alternative
Authors: Abadir Karim M.
Published: March 2009

It was recently shown (Abadir, 1993b) that nonstationarity causes the limiting distributions of the Wald (W) and Lagrange multiplier (LM) statistics to become different from each other. This paper demonstrates that such a divergence between the two distributions can be used as an indicator of the presence of a unit root. A test based on this idea is devised by modifying the normalized autocorrelation coefficient (NAC). It is then shown to be an improvement on NAC in large samples and an improvement on other existing tests in large effective samples. The paper also investigates the effect of nonstationarity on the well-known inequality W ≥ LR ≥ LM.
Unit Root Tests Based on M Estimators
Authors: Lucas André
Published: March 2009

This paper considers unit root tests based on M estimators. The asymptotic theory for these tests is developed. It is shown how the asymptotic distributions of the tests depend on nuisance parameters and how tests can be constructed that are invariant to these parameters. It is also shown that a particular linear combination of a unit root test based on the ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimator and on an M estimator converges to a normal random variate. The interpretation of this result is discussed. A simulation experiment is described, illustrating the level and power of different unit root tests for several sample sizes and data generating processes. The tests based on M estimators turn out to be more powerful than the OLS-based tests if the innovations are fat-tailed.
Some Aspects of Asymptotic Theory with Applications to Time Series Models
Authors: Jeganathan P.
Published: March 2009

The primary purpose of this paper is to review a very few results on some basic elements of large sample theory in a restricted structural framework, as described in detail in the recent book by LeCam and Yang (1990, Asymptotics in Statistics: Some Basic Concepts. New York: Springer), and to illustrate how the asymptotic inference problems associated with a wide variety of time series regression models fit into such a structural framework. The models illustrated include many linear time series models, including cointegrated models and autoregressive models with unit roots that are of wide current interest. The general treatment also includes nonlinear models, including what have become known as ARCH models. The possibility of replacing the density of the error variables of such models by an estimate of it (adaptive estimation) based on the observations is also considered.

Under the framework in which the asymptotic problems are treated, only the approximating structure of the likelihood ratios of the observations, together with auxiliary estimates of the parameters, will be required. Such approximating structures are available under quite general assumptions, such as that the Fisher information of the common density of the error variables is finite and nonsingular, and the more specific assumptions, such as Gaussianity, are not required. In addition, the construction and the form of inference procedures will not involve any additional complications in the non-Gaussian situations because the approximating quadratic structure actually will reduce the problems to the situations similar to those involved in the Gaussian cases.
Full Information Estimations of a System of Simultaneous Equations with Error Component Structure
Authors: Balestra Pietro , Varadharajan-Krishnakumar Jayalakshmi
Published: March 2009

In this paper we develop full information methods for estimating the parameters of a system of simultaneous equations with error component structure and establish relationships between the various structural estimators.
Approximating the Approximate Slopes of LR, W, and LM Test Statistics
Authors: Magee Lonnie
Published: March 2009

A Taylor series approach is used to derive approximations to the approximate slope of LR, W, and LM test statistics. These can be useful when the approximate slopes themselves are complicated. The results are applied to the test of linear coefficient restrictions in the linear model with a nonscalar covariance matrix. They can be used to find cases where the Wald test may badly over-reject in this model. The results shed some new light on the over-rejection that has been noted in the special cases of AR(1) disturbances and the SURE model.
Preliminary-Test Estimation of the Error Variance in Linear Regression
Authors: Clarke Judith A. , Giles David E. A. , Wallace T. Dudley
Published: March 2009

We derive exact finite-sample expressions for the biases and risks of several common pretest estimators of the scale parameter in the linear regression model. These estimators are associated with least squares, maximum likelihood and minimum mean squared error component estimators. Of these three criteria, the last is found to be superior (in terms of risk under quadratic loss) when pretesting in typical situations.
Finite Sample Properties of Several Predictors From an Autoregressive Model
Authors: Maekawa Koichi
Published: March 2009

We compare the distributional properties of the four predictors commonly used in practice. They are based on the maximum likelihood, two types of the least squared, and the Yule-Walker estimators. The asymptotic expansions of the distribution, bias, and mean-squared error for the four predictors are derived up to O(T−1), where T is the sample size. Examining the formulas of the asymptotic expansions, we find that except for the Yule-Walker type predictor, the other three predictors have the same distributional properties up to O(T−1).
Finite Sample Distributions oftandFStatistics in an AR(1) Model with Anexogenous Variable
Authors: Nankervis J.C. , Savin N.E.
Published: March 2009

The distributions of the test statistics are investigated in the context of an AR(1) model where the root is unity or near unity and where the exogenous process is a stable process, a random walk or a time trend. The finite sample distributions are estimated by Monte Carlo methods assuming normal disturbances. The sensitivity of the distributions to both the values of the parameters of the AR(1) model and the process generating the exogenous time series is examined. The Monte Carlo results motivate several theorems which describe the exact sampling behavior of the test statistics. The analytical and empirical results present a mixed picture with respect to the accuracy of the relevant asymptotic approximations.
Talking Business in China
Authors: Rae A. E. I.
Published: March 2009

Commercial negotiations with the Chinese are conducted according to a set of rules. They are part of a large and fairly complex system which handles all China's external trading relations. The foreign businessman must have a general understanding of this system and in particular the part of it that applies to him. Above all he must realise there are virtually no short cuts and what is popularly called “the inside track,” despite some rumours to the contrary, does not exist.
Lu Xun and Contemporary Chinese Literature
Authors: Chinnery John
Published: March 2009

In a famous article written in 1928 when the Left-wing writers of the Sun and Creation Societies were criticising Lu Xun for being behind the times, Qian Xingcun (A Ying) asserted that the age of Ah Q was already past. Fifty years later Chen Baichen's dramatization of Ah Q Zhengzhuan, which was staged in 1981 as part of the Lu Xun centenary celebrations, ends with the narrator declaring that although Ah Q had no women it was not true that he would have no descendants, because his line would continue for generations to come. It is, of course, possible to reconcile these two apparently contradictory statements. Qian Xingcun was referring to the fact that the peasant masses were becoming politically organized, having played an important role in the revolutionary movements of those years. He did not claim that people like Ah Q no longer existed. Chen Baichen, on the other hand, was referring to the Ah Q mentality which still lives on in people's minds, long after Ah Q himself has been executed. He did not see this mentality as the dominant force in society. Nevertheless there have been striking changes of attitude towards Ah Q in recent years. Since the end of the Cultural Revolution it has been generally recognized that the Ah Q mentality is still a force in China which is holding back attempts at modernization and that many other aspects of the Chinese traditional society and culture which Lu Xun criticized in his stories and essays have still not been eradicated 45 years after his death.
Money and Banking in the People's Republic of China: Recent Developments
Authors: Hsiao Katharine H. Y. Huang
Published: March 2009

The economy of the People's Republic of China is undergoing a sweeping transformation at the present time. Drastic changes are being made in its objectives, developmental strategies and the basic economic structure. The national objectives are no longer high speed industrialization and socialization at all costs, but an increase in economic efficiency and a rise in the people's standards of living. In terms of strategies, the country is shifting from a policy of unbalanced growth to a more balanced approach, while at the same time it opts for international co-operation instead of isolation. In other words, heavy industry no longer receives an overwhelmingly large share of state investments; now light industry and agriculture are given their fail shares. Besides, instead of emphasizing economic self-sufficiency, it now actively seeks foreign trade and foreign investment in an attempt to modernize the country. Meanwhile, the economic structure is also being fundamentally overhauled. The price mechanism is being allowed to function alongside planning; basic productive units, farmers and enterprises alike, are receiving more autonomy; pecuniary incentives in the form of bonus and profit are being reinstituted; a limited degree of competition is encouraged; and direct, administrative controls are giving way to indirect, economic controls. In sum, the economy is becoming more decentralized, with prices, markets and profits playing important parts. Under these circumstances, it is inevitable that the role of money and banking would be affected. The purpose of this paper is to examine changes in money and banking in China. In the following, I shall first briefly summarize the Chinese money and banking system inherited from the 1950s, then investigate recent changes and developments, and conclude with a generalization about the new role played by money and banking and its prospect.
Popeye and the Case of Guo Yidong, alias Bo Yang
Authors: Lancashire Edel
Published: March 2009

When Chiang Kai-shek and his government retreated to the island of Taiwan after the loss of mainland China to the Communists in 1949, they submitted themselves to a high degree of soul-searching in order to determine the reasons for their defeat. One conclusion drawn from their reflections was that factional conflicts within the Guomindang, lack of discipline, and a decline in morale were as responsible, if not more responsible, for their overthrow than any superior military strength which the Communists might have come to possess. They judged also that they had lost the initiative in the political and psychological battle by countering the Communists' “unlimited war with limited war,” and by having too negative an attitude towards literature. During this evaluation of past performance the Guomindang felt no need to apologize for the imposition of censorship and oppressive publishing restrictions, nor for its suppression of those Left-wing writers who, since the expulsion of Communists from the Guomindang Government in 1927, had made a point of discrediting the Guomindang in the eyes of the people. These were considered to be necessary measures in the fight against Communism. What they did regret was not having used literature as the Communists had, thereby losing the battle for the minds of the people.
Modern Chinese and Linguistic Change
Authors: Kratochvil Paul
Published: March 2009

It has been observed on many occasions that Chinese changed greatly since the turn of the century, especially during the last 30 years, perhaps more rapidly and more profoundly than any other one of the principal world languages. The changes led to the birth of a branch of Chinese linguistics specifically concerned with them, and beside numerous textbooks and dictionaries, there appeared a voluminous series of studies dedicated exclusively to their description. Chi Wen-shun, the compiler of one of the dictionaries, noted the feeling of having become illiterate on the part of an educated Chinese émigré reading thePeople's Daily, while others, including the present author, have gone so far as to speak of Chinese as a divided language, in a sense similar to that of a divided country in the political sphere.
Old Tales Retold (Gushi xinbian)
Authors: Tao Tang , Pollard D. E.
Published: March 2009

The following note was originally intended to be part of our Lu Xun symposium (in issue No. 91). Tang Tao, a disciple of Lu Xun in the latter's last years, is now Research Fellow at the Institute of Literature, CASS – Editor.
The Chinese Food Purchases
Authors: Barry Allan J.
Published: March 2009

After three years of agricultural calamities, both natural and man-made, China has begun the importation on a substantial scale of foodstuffs— a dramatic departure from previous policy. The chief beneficiaries abroad are the grain producers of Canada and Australia.

Actual quantities involved may be regarded as small from the standpoint of total Chinese food consumption, but remarkably significant when considered in terms of the actual addition to domestic supplies of wheat and barley, the probable consumption of grain in the seaboard cities, the amount of foreign exchange required, the concomitant decline in other imports (including machinery and raw materials), and the enormous demands usually made upon transportation facilities by agricultural shipments from the interior to the coast. These food purchases are also significant from the standpoint of both Canada and Australia.
Pham Van Dong's Tour
Authors: Honey P. J.
Published: March 2009

The reasons for the visit to Russia, Eastern Europe, and China last summer of a DRV (Democratic Republic of [North] Vietnam) mission led by Prime Minister Pham Van Dong and Chairman of the National Planning Board Le Thanh Nghi gave rise to some speculation in the West. The inclusion of Le Thanh Nghi suggested that it was connected with economic aid to the DRV, more particularly with aid for the carrying out of the extremely ambitious five-year plan, which was first announced during the third Congress of the Lao Dong (Communist) Party in September, 1960.
Higher Education: Some Problems of Selection and Enrolment
Authors: Kun Joseph C.
Published: March 2009

An energetic new intellectual élite is being moulded in Communist China's rapidly growing network of higher educational institutions. Some time from now members of this “new class” are expected to replace the distrusted old-style intellectual. Each year an increasing number of young men and women enter colleges and universities and, emerging four or five years later, take up responsible positions of leadership in the country's economic and intellectual life. Many phases in the training of the present-day Chinese student are still little known to us. Who are, after all, these new students in China's new universities? On what basis are they selected? Who does the selection and how? And, last but not least: why is selection necessary? In the following pages we shall attempt to find answers to some of these questions.
Spare-Time Education in Communist China
Authors: Abe Munemitsu
Published: March 2009

The first Chinese Five-Year Plan ended in 1957, and the second began the following year. The launching of the “great leap forward” in industrial and agricultural production and the transformation of the rural collectives into “People's Communes” in 1958 accelerated the pace of work of both workers and peasants.
The Western Attitude to China
Authors: Younger Kenneth
Published: March 2009

For more than a decade Western policy towards revolutionary China has been dominated by the attitude which the United States adopted in early 1950, before the Korean war broke out. This attitude arose out of conditions prevailing in the United States rather than in the Far East. Almost at once American policy lost any flexibility it might otherwise have had, when the Chinese intervened in the Korean war, an event which might have been avoided altogether if the American posture towards China had been different.
One China or Two?
Authors: Hudson G. F.
Published: March 2009

The divergence of policy between Britain and the United States over the recognition of Communist China is now twelve years old. In the spring of 1950 nobody could have anticipated that it would go so deep or last so long. When the British Government transferred de jure recognition as the Government of China from the Kuomintang régime still holding out in Formosa to the new Communist authority which by victory in the civil war had gained control of the whole Chinese mainland, it was not considered in London to be an act contrary to American policy because it was understood that the American Government would do the same after a short interval of time. The policy of the Truman Administration, after the failure of the ill-conceived Marshall Mission, had been one of disengagement from the Chinese civil war; it was in accordance with this line that the War Department obstructed the delivery to the National Government of the arms voted by Congress in the China Aid Bill of 1948. When the Kuomintang régime collapsed on the mainland, the American Government made it clear that it would take no action to preserve its remnant in Formosa; the Secretary of State declared that America's “defence perimeter” lay in Japan, Okinawa and the Philippines, excluding Formosa and South Korea. No objection was raised in Washington to the British Government's intention to give de jure recognition at an early date, but it was hinted that because of the domestic political situation the United States would have to wait until the mid-term Congressional elections of 1950 were safely over.
Elementary Education in Communist China
Authors: Chen Theodore H. E.
Published: March 2009

There are a variety of agencies engaged in elementary education in Communist China. Besides the regular elementary schools for children, there are adult schools of elementary grade and spare-time elementary schools for youth as well as older people; there are winter schools in the rural areas, worker-peasant schools, and various kinds of literacy classes. In view of limited space, this article will deal only with the regular elementary schools. Kindergartens and nursery schools are not included in the discussion.
The Dispute Over a Wuhan Insurrection in 1927
Authors: Tso-Liang Hsiao
Published: March 2009

As a result of the split between the Communists and the Kuomintang at Wuhan in July 1927, the Nationalists managed to set up a unified régime of their own at Nanking. But T'ang Sheng-chih, the KMT military leader at Wuhan, rebelled against that unified régime. So Nanking decided to send troops to fight him on October 24. This KMT civil strife led immediately to an intra-Party power struggle among the Communists who had been forced underground since July. The Communist struggle took the form of a dispute over a proposed insurrection at Wuhan in the event of T'ang Sheng-chih's defeat.
The Cultural Revolution in Inner Mongolia
Authors: Hyer Paul , Heaton William
Published: March 2009

A significant aspect of the Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution has been to reveal the least stable areas of China geographically and politically. One of these is Inner Mongolia. Also, the events of the upheaval— in direct contradiction to the Maoist dictum that “the Party must always control the gun, the gun must never be allowed to control the Party”— have caused a breakdown in Party and Government authority and a shift to military control in many parts of China: administrative organs at provincial, municipal and local levels have been replaced by People's Liberation Army (PLA) directed “Revolutionary Committees.” In most areas of China, the political upheaval can be ascribed to a power struggle between the Party, Red Guards and other semi-organised groups. However, the Cultural Revolution in the Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region takes on added significance in that “local nationalism” among the Mongol national minority played an important role in the conflict between the established political structure and the efforts of the Maoists to “seize power.”
Political Offences in Taiwan: Laws and Problems
Authors: Peng Ming-min
Published: March 2009

1. After the establishment of the Chinese People's Republic in 1949, the Chinese Nationalist Government moved to the island of Taiwan and chose the city of Taipei as its new capital. In the 20 years since then, the Nationalist Government has maintained a state of “national emergency” over the whole area under its control, and administered it under martial law. It is the avowed intention of the Government to perpetuate the present situation until the day of its reconquest of the whole of China, that is, indefinitely.
The McMahon Line 1911–45: The British Legacy
Authors: Gupta Karunakar
Published: March 2009

In 1913 the British convoked a conference at Simla; the Tibetans attending willingly, the Chinese under constraint. The purpose of the British Government in this conference was to extend and formalize the de facto independence which Tibet had begun to enjoy in 1912 as a result of the overthrow of the Manchu dynasty, and of the consequent turmoil in China: Tibet would thus be maintained as a buffer state between India and China. This the British hoped to achieve by making the Chinese accept a zonal division of Tibet into “Inner” (from Peking's point of view) and “Outer” regions. (The Russians had obtained China's acquiescence in a similar division of Mongolia in 1913.) The British aim suited Tibetan aspirations, and the British and the Tibetans worked throughout the Conference in closest co-operation, not far short, indeed, of collusion.
Juxtaposing Past and Present in China Today
Authors: Gungwu Wang
Published: March 2009

Ever since the 10th Party Congress in August 1973, what had been a rather quiet anti-Confucian campaign has been combined with a much fiercer anti-Lin Piao campaign to make a very broad onslaught on all who are backward-looking and opportunistic and who seek to “restore capitalism.” In many respects, there is nothing new in this. China has gone through many campaigns since the 1950s and 1960s, and attacking Confucius is something that dates back almost continuously to 1915. Also, using the past to criticize the present, using historical analogies for current political ends, praising or condemning contemporary figures by likening them to historical heroes and villains – all these the Chinese have been doing for centuries, sometimes crudely, sometimes with sophistication. But there is at least one refinement in the present two campaigns which is new and deserves attention. This is the juxtaposition of two historical processes in the combined campaigns which are not so much Chinese as Marxist. That is to say, apart from the moral judgments and the comparisons between Confucius and his disciples and Lin Piao and his followers, there is a new consciousness about comparing two periods separated from each other by more than 2,000 years but both marked by revolutionary transitions from one kind of society to another. In the case of Confucius, the period is described as one of transition from slave society to feudal society; in the case of Lin Piao, the present is marked by the transition from capitalism to socialism. For both periods, there is the common danger of class “restoration,” that is, from restorationist forces wanting to arrest the changes and turn the clock back. Furthermore, unlike past analogies which applied to China alone, this setting side by side of two dynamic processes discovered or determined through the application of Marxist theory is not confined only to China. The present campaign warns that the same dangers that confront China confront the rest of the world as well and thus seems to serve the additional purpose of stimulating Chinese awareness of the relevance of universal history.
New Light on Mao: 3. Quemoy 1958: Mao's Miscalculations
Authors: Whiting Allen S.
Published: March 2009

Not since the acquisition of the classified military periodical Kung-tso t'ung-hsün has the outside world been given so rich a store of material on the inner rationale behind Chinese foreign policy as is provided by the two volumes of Cultural Revolution compilations, Mao Tse-tung ssu-hsiang wan-sui. Although these documents cannot be authenticated as to accuracy of transcription and are obviously selective as well as edited, they nonetheless provide a wealth of insight into Mao's views on China's external affairs. In particular they throw new light on the 1958 Quemoy crisis with surprisingly frank admissions of miscalculation on Mao's part, both in terms of his objective in the bombardment and his underestimation of the American response thereto.
Self-Reliance, Internal Trade and China's Economic Structure
Authors: Snead William G.
Published: March 2009

Scholarly interest in a cellular model for sectors of the Chinese economy dates at least to G. William Skinner's “Marketing and social structure in rural China,” published in 1964–65, but based on his field work from 1949 to 1950 and on a theoretical foundation developed by Christaller and Löch in the 1930s and 40s. New interest was sparked by Audrey Donnithorne's 1972 article in this journal, in which she attempted to demonstrate that China had recently “experienced an intensification of the tendencies towards a cellular economy,” which she claimed had been strong even before the Cultural Revolution.
Wu Kuei-hsien: Labour Heroine to Vice-Premier
Authors: Witke Roxane
Published: March 2009

Wu Kuei-hsien is a miracle of the modern age. She, like millions of her generation and generations before her, was born to poverty. Childhood she survived by gathering cinders to sell. Work evolved, and Liberation brought rewards. By the age of 25 she was received by Chairman Mao at the Gate of Heavenly Peace in Peking and graced there with the title, “labour heroine.” In her early 30s she was promoted to the Central Committee, an inner circle of Party leadership. By her late 30s she became China's first woman vice-premier.
Technological Innovation in China's Recent Industrialization
Authors: Conroy Richard
Published: March 2009

The intimate, though as yet imperfectly understood, causal relation-ship between scientific and technological development and the economic growth in industrially advanced countries over the past 30 years has been investigated and refined over a number of years, and attempts have been made to quantify the relationship. Although a strong scientific and technological (S & T) base does not by itself guarantee rapid economic growth, most observers consider it to be a necessary prerequisite, after a certain level of development has been reached. One of the main ways that S & T act on the economic system is by the generation of new knowledge through research activities and the application of this in production. Such application often results in new products and processes which are grouped under the term “technological innovations.” The innovation process is usually defined as “the technical, industrial and commercial steps which lead to the successful marketing of new manufactured products and/or to the commercial use of technically new processes or equipment.”
The Second Plenary Session of the 12th CCP Central Committee: Rectification and Reform
Authors: Goodman David S. G.
Published: March 2009

Hu Yaobang in his report to the 12th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CCP) during September 1982 announced that the Party would implement a three-year programme of rectification starting in the second half of 1983. Meeting in Beijing on 11–12 October 1983 (and after a two-day preparatory meeting) the CCP Central Committee duly adopted at its second plenary session a “Decision on Party consolidation.” Under nine separate headings that resolution provided a relatively detailed prescription for the programme, which it announced would start during the winter of 1983.
The 1963 Temporary Work Regulations for Full-time Middle and Primary Schools: Commentary and Translation
Authors: Shirk Susan
Published: March 2009

After the Great Leap Forward the Chinese Ministry of Education designed new programmes for teaching and administration. These guidelines, the “1963 Temporary Work Regulations for Full-time Middle and Primary Schools,” which are translated below, were drafted during 1961 and 1962, promulgated in 1963 but only became generally available during the Cultural Revolution when, in 1967, they were reprinted and circulated for criticism, to serve as negative examples for those drawing up new educational reforms. These 1963 regulations were an attempt to structure a school environment in which the teaching and learning of academic subjects would flourish. They provide documentary evidence for the concentration on expertness and “quality” which characterized educational policy during the period between the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution. Moreover, the regulations illustrate how the policy-makers defined “quality” education; they describe the specific measures which the authorities felt were necessary to guarantee a school setting conducive to that goal; and they indicate what values the policy-makers were willing to trade-off in pursuit of educational “quality.”
Enthusiast and Escapist: Writers of the Older Generation
Authors: Shih Vincent Y. C.
Published: March 2009

The purpose of this article is to show what Communist literary dictatorship has done to some of the writers, who, though not literary giants, had in the past shown some promise in the art of letters.
Communist War Stories
Authors: Chi Li
Published: March 2009

Modern Chinese literature, which I date from the deliberate new beginnings made at the time of the May Fourth movement, is distinguished by its conscious effort at Europeanisation, which is in itself a catchall term embracing a whole assembly of themes and techniques, images and linguistic features taken and adopted from the vast literature beyond the seas and vaguely and often incorrectly designated as European. To be European was in fact simply to be non-traditional Chinese.
Traditional Medicine in Communist China: Science, Communism and Cultural Nationalism
Authors: Croizier Ralph C.
Published: March 2009

In recent years a number of visitors to China have remarked on the rather surprising preservation and even revival of the country's ancient native medical tradition. To Westerners, so accustomed to associating modern medicine with progress and scientific advance, the continued existence of this obviously prescientific art has been one of the more curious anachronisms in the new society. Moreover, for a revolutionary government so firmly committed to science and modernisation, this support and encouragement of traditional medicine has seemed paradoxical indeed.
Water Conservancy in Communist China
Authors: Chi Wen-Shun
Published: March 2009

One of the tragic phenomena in Chinese history is the frequent occurrence of natural calamities. It has been estimated that there have been 1,035 droughts and 1,037 floods in a period of 2,142 years from 206 B.C. to 1936. The Chinese Communist Government puts the blame for the failure to alleviate them on “feudalism” and, over the past century, on the combination of imperialism, feudalism and bureaucratic capitalism. They have proclaimed: “Since the founding of the People's Republic of China, the People's Government have paid much attention to water conservancy. During the period of national economic recovery and the period of socialist industrialisation, the main tasks of water conservancy are to alleviate the disasters of flood and drought to insure a steady in-crease of agricultural production, and to promote the development of industry and river navigation.” The Draft Outline of the National Agricultural Development for 1956–1967 proclaimed the determination of the Chinese Communist Government to eliminate ordinary floods and droughts within a period of seven to twelve years beginning from 1956. This is a truly bold and far-reaching programme. The success or failure of this attempt will have great influence on the stability of the Government and on the life of the people. The purpose of this article is to study the degree of success the Communist Government has achieved in this field and also the implications of this record as an index of its overall effectiveness and future prospects.
Great Powers and Atomic Bombs are “Paper Tigers”
Authors: Powell Ralph L.
Published: March 2009

In terms of Western political science or military doctrine it seems somewhat irrational that the leaders of Communist China should refer to great powers as “paper tigers.” It appears even more illogical that they should call atomic bombs “paper tigers,” especially when they themselves place the highest priority on the development of a nuclear capability. Yet, since the first Chinese nuclear explosion on October 16, 1964, the official Communist Press has again referred to the United States, Great Britain and the “revisionists” (both Khrushchev and the present leaders of the Soviet Union) as “paper tigers.” This same metaphor has also been applied to “imperialism” and “all reactionaries,” as well as to nuclear weapons, air-power and sea-power.
Men of the Moment
Authors: Klein Donald W.
Published: March 2009

In May of this year Lin Feng led a delegation to Moscow for the twentieth anniversary celebrations of the defeat of Nazi Germany. In reporting this, a news agency described Lin as a “little known middlerank” politician. Lin is indeed little known to the outside world, but within Communist China he is a top Party leader and one who has made an impressive record despite a somewhat unorthodox path to power. Unlike most top Peking leaders, he was not born in central-south China, he did not serve in the Kiangsi Soviet, and he did not make the Long March. Rather, Lin hails from Manchuria where he was born about fifty-six years ago, thus making him one of the youngest of the senior Party leaders—although already a veteran of twenty years on the Party Central Committee. Sources vary widely on Lin's educational background; he is reported to have studied at Nankai University in Tientsin, at Peking University, in Japan at famed Waseda, as well as in Moscow. By the mid-1930s Lin was deeply involved in the Party underground in North China. He was working behind the scenes in an attempt to win over to the Communists the highly nationalistic students who were bitterly opposed to Japanese incursions into North China. Among those whom Lin won was his future wife, Kuo Ming-ch'iu who has become one of the outstanding women leaders in Communist China. At that time Kuo was a high-school girl and acting head of the Peiping Students Federation.
China's Fresh Approach to the National Minority Question
Authors: Moseley George
Published: March 2009

There have been enthusiastic reports in the Chinese Press about the collectivisation movement in agriculture and animal husbandry among the forty million people of the national minorities in China. But it now appears that the socialist revolution has not developed successfully in the non-Han frontier regions of the country.
Communist Interpretations of the Chinese Peasant Wars
Authors: Harrison James P.
Published: March 2009

Oneof the most heated debates in Chinese Communist historiography concerns the evaluation of the peasant movements in Chinese history. As in many other aspects of mainland intellectual life, the issues debated in this question seem artificial. Yet even in terms of the interpretation of Chinese history new problems have been raised, if not solved. More important, in terms of contemporary intellectual history, the discussions of the Chinese peasant wars form an important part of the documentation for the most massive attempt at ideological reeducation in human history, the effort to inculcate attitudes of struggle in place of the traditional emphasis on harmony.
Chinese Communist Treatment of the Thinkers of the Hundred Schools Period
Authors: Munro Donald J.
Published: March 2009

Although there is no detailed definitive Chinese Communist interpretation of the thinkers of the 100 Schools Period, this does not mean that one cannot isolate certain constants from which deviation is not permitted. The sayings of Marx-Engels and Mao Tse-tung which are directly relevant to the early thinkers, if not strictly about them, have obviously been the primary guidelines for the scholar in Communist China. Especially in the material produced since 1957, when relatively intensive study of the period began, one becomes aware of more specific trends in interpretation. With the basic tenets of Marx and Engels as tools for interpretation, it is axiomatic that understanding the class struggle of a given time is the key to understanding the thought of that time. The “contention” among the 100 Schools is taken to be a reflection of the intensity of class struggle in the Warring States Period. It is also axiomatic that the history of the struggle between progressive and reactionary forces is reflected in the enduring philosophical struggle between materialism and idealism. But the philosophical concepts associated with materialism and idealism are not native to China; nor are their Marxist definitions universally accepted in the history of Western philosophy. Therefore, in interpreting the thought of the 100 Schools Period, scholars most frequently cite Marx-Engels definitions as support for their own interpretations or to criticise those of others. Engels states that all those who take spirit as prior to the existence of the natural world and thus in the last analysis admit a creator (Old Testament variety or the more sophisticated Absolute Spirit of Hegel) belong in the idealist camp.
Railway Development and Economic Growth in Manchuria
Authors: Chou Shun-Hsin
Published: March 2009

During the early years of the Chinese People's Republic, Manchuria was usually referred to as the Three Eastern Provinces, which included Liaoning (also known in early years as Fengtien), Kirin and Heilungkiang. At times, a fourth province, Jehol, was also considered part of the region. In fact, since the occupation by the Japanese in 1931, Manchuria has been generally defined to cover the area of these four provinces, rather than that of the three. This was true not only under the Manchoukuo regime, but also under the administration of the Nationalist Government from 1945 to 1948, when the entire region of Manchuria was subdivided into nine provinces, and also under the Communist administration after 1948.