bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Informatikai angol Moodle tananyagfejlesztés a Budapesti Gazdasági Egyetemen
Authors: Bereczky Klára
Published: December 2023

Az ún. digitális bennszülöttek, a Z generáció (Garai–Fodor–Csercsa, 2020) felsőoktatásban történő megjelenésével egyidőben szükségessé vált az, hogy az oktatásmódszertan kövesse a diákok tanulási szokásainak megváltozását. A tanulási környezet átalakulásával a régi tanítási módszerek háttérbe szorulnak, a hagyományos, egyoldalú kommunikációra építő, előadás jellegű tanórák átalakulnak, a kompetenciák fejlesztése ugyanakkor egyre inkább digitális úton történik. Korunk információs társadalmában a tapasztalatokon keresztül megszerezhető tudástartalmak előállítása és megosztása új kihívásokba ütközik: a tartalom mellett, a megosztás módja válik meghatározóvá a hatékonyság mérése szempontjából. A digitális pedagógia (Prievara–Lénárd–Katona, 2020) egyre inkább törekszik az egyéni igényeknek történő megfelelésre, mint például a hosszabb vagy rövidebb tanulási időt igénylő tanulók, betegség vagy ösztöndíj miatt távollévők vagy lemaradók felzárkóztatása, érdeklődőbb tanulók tudásvágyának kielégítése, tudományterületek közötti átfedések megvilágítása stb. Ezekre az aktuális igényekre reagálva készült a BGE informatikai angol szaknyelvi elektronikus tananyaga, amely a tükrözött osztályterem (Tóth, 2014) elvére építve teszi lehetővé a fenti célok elérését. A tananyag jó példa arra, hogy a digitalizált tananyag nem teszi feleslegessé a tanár munkáját, csak átalakítja azt, emellett jelentősen megkönnyíti a tanulók előrehaladásának követését és értékelését.
Az EUSecure nemzetközi tananyagfejlesztő projekt
Authors: Jakusné Harnos Éva
Published: December 2023

2020-ban a Nemzeti Közszolgálati Egyetem vezetésével, öt egyetem részvételével benyújtott, „Interdiszciplináris tréning az EU Biztonsága, Rezilienciája és Fenntarthatósága területén – Egy szimulációs gyakorlattal bővített tömeges nyílt online kurzus (EUSecure)” című pályázat elnyerte az Európai Unió támogatását. A feladat angol nyelvű tananyag kialakítása, amely jelenléti, blended és tömeges nyílt online képzéseken (MOOC) alkalmazható. A kurzus célja az Európai Uniót érintő sokrétű biztonsági kihívások bemutatása 15 modulban, a katonai biztonságtól az élelmiszer- és vízbiztonságig. A fejlesztés többféle szaknyelvi területet foglal magában, és korszerű pedagógiai módszereket alkalmaz, mint például a kollaboratív és kooperatív tanulás, a szimuláció és a szerepjáték. Emellett új technológiai lehetőségeket is kihasznál, köztük a podcastot és a videó-előadásokat. Jelenleg a blended változat pilot kurzusai zajlanak a résztvevő öt egyetemen, és 2023 tavaszára várható a MOOC bemutatása. Az interaktív feladatok kipróbálása mellett folyamatban van a tankönyv nemzetközi munkacsoportok által írt fejezeteinek véglegesítése. A cikk ismerteti a munkát megelőző igényfelmérés eredményeit és a tananyagfejlesztés szakaszait, beleértve a tartalmi és szerkezeti egységesítést, valamint az eltérő alkalmazáshoz kapcsolódó pedagógiai módszerek kialakítását.
Direito e linguagem: uma análise dos discursos legitimadores de assédio moral institucional nos acórdãos do TST
Authors: Formiga de Almeida Pedro Lucas , Henrique Vieira Anderson , Oliveira Almeida Lívia
Published: December 2023

A linguagem, especialmente no Direito, pode ser usada com o intuito de controlar o entendimento acerca de determinado tema, haja vista a sua potencialidade em comunicar e expressar realidades. No Direito, sua utilização permite concretizar a busca por justiça diante das modalidades de resolução de conflitos. Diante disso, é percebido que os discursos propagados pelos órgãos do judiciário podem influenciar no esperado combate aos conflitos existentes no país, como no caso do assédio moral no ambiente de trabalho. Assim, o objetivo geral do artigo é identificar, por meio da análise dos acórdãos prolatados pelo TST, os principais marcadores de análise para caracterização da prática lesiva do assédio moral institucional. Nesse sentido, questiona-se: o Tribunal Superior do Trabalho (TST), através dos discursos empregados em suas decisões, pode legitimar os casos de assédio moral institucional? Como metodologia foi adotada pesquisa bibliográfica com abordagem qualitativa. A principal conclusão indica que, devido à falta de regulamentação legal no que se refere ao assédio moral institucional, pode configurar insegurança jurídica aos reclamantes, pela falta de um padrão que assegure elementos mínimos para caracterização da prática lesiva.
A violência sexual contra crianças e adolescentes no Brasil em 2021
Authors: Boaventura Fabiana Esteves , Rêgo Lopes Ueno Thalyta Mariany , Paes Leia Venâncio , Ferreira Darlisom Sousa
Published: December 2023

O presente artigo tem por objetivo dialogar sobre o tema da violência sexual contra crianças e adolescentes, a partir da perspectiva do Serviço Social no meio sociojurídico. Foi construído sob o método crítico-dialético, e teve por procedimentos metodológicos a realização de análise documental e bibliográfica, bem como de dados primários e secundários, incluindo pesquisa de campo na 2ª Vara Especializada em Crimes contra a Dignidade Sexual de Crianças e Adolescentes (2ª VECCDSCA), do Tribunal de Justiça do Amazonas. Foram analisados os dados coletados a partir do estudo de 106 processos julgados em sentenciados, no período entre janeiro e dezembro de 2021. Os procedimentos éticos foram resguardados, dado que os profissionais que extraíram os dados dos processos eram servidores da referida Vara, habilitados e aptos a lidar com o segredo de justiça inerente aos processos transitados em tal instância. Este artigo buscou contribuir para a produção de conhecimento científico sobre a violência sexual contra crianças e adolescentes na região Norte, dando visibilidade para as diversas violações aos direitos humanos desse segmento social, localizado na maior área territorial do Brasil, tendo a “questão social” como categoria central de análise. Teve como objetivo geral fazer uma análise acerca dos dados sobre a violência sexual contra crianças e adolescentes no Brasil, com recorte para a cidade de Manaus, no Amazonas. Enquanto objetivo específico buscou conceituar e refletir sobre o conceito de violência sexual contra crianças e adolescentes e suas implicações.
Data-Driven Decision-Making: Leveraging Analytics for Product Management
Authors: Tanay Shah
Published: December 2023

In the rapidly evolving landscape of contemporary business, the role of product management has become increasingly complex and multifaceted (1). With the advent of big data and advanced analytics, product managers are presented with unprecedented opportunities to enhance decision-making processes through the integration of data-driven insights (2). This scholarly article delves into the pivotal intersection of data analytics and product management, exploring the transformative potential of leveraging data-driven decision-making strategies.
The article begins by elucidating the foundational principles of data-driven decision-making and its relevance to the discipline of product management (7). It investigates the evolving nature of consumer behavior and market dynamics, emphasizing the critical need for product managers to assimilate and interpret vast datasets. By elucidating the symbiotic relationship between analytics and product management, this research seeks to provide a comprehensive understanding of how data-driven insights can empower decision-makers to anticipate market trends, identify consumer preferences, and optimize product development strategies.
Furthermore, the article delves into the methodologies and tools employed in contemporary data analytics, elucidating their applicability to the product management domain (4). From predictive modeling to machine learning algorithms, an array of analytical techniques is explored, each offering unique insights into consumer behavior, product performance, and market dynamics (8). By providing a nuanced analysis of these methodologies, this research equips product managers with the knowledge necessary to navigate the complexities of data integration and interpretation.
The article also scrutinizes the challenges and ethical considerations associated with data-driven decision-making in the realm of product management (3). Recognizing the importance of responsible data usage, the research discusses strategies for mitigating biases, ensuring data privacy, and fostering transparency in decision-making processes.
Ultimately, this scholarly exploration aims to contribute to the evolving discourse on product management by elucidating the transformative potential of data-driven decision-making (5). By synthesizing theoretical frameworks, practical insights, and real-world case studies, the article serves as a valuable resource for academics, practitioners, and industry leaders seeking to harness the power of analytics to drive innovation, enhance competitiveness, and navigate the complexities of the modern business landscape (6)..
Diagnostic utility of CT enterography in the evaluation of ileocecal mucosal lesions of uncertain diagnosis on ileocolonoscopy
Authors: Jehangir Majid , Parry Arshed H. , Wani Suhail H. , Kadla Showket , Sheikh Bilal
Published: December 2023

Purpose

Ileocolonoscopy aids in the diagnosis of ileocecal region pathologies when typical mucosal lesions are seen. However, in many cases the mucosal lesions of the ileocaecal region are atypical, rendering themselves to diagnostic dilemma. The present study aimed to study the role of computed tomography (CT) enterography in the evaluation of symptomatic patients who demonstrated ileocecal mucosal lesions of uncertain diagnosis on ileocolonoscopy.

Material and methods

Symptomatic patients who had ileocolonoscopy documented ileocecal mucosal lesions of uncertain diagnosis were enrolled. Patients were subjected to CT enterography within 10 days of ileocolonoscopy. On CT enterography a diagnosis of Crohn’s disease (CD) or ileocaecal tuberculosis (ITB) was made. The diagnosis obtained by CT enterography was correlated with the final diagnosis obtained from histopathology. Using descriptive statistics, the diagnostic performance of CT enterography was evaluated.

Results

A total of 153 cases were enrolled in the study. CT enterography findings were present in 147 cases, resulting in a diagnostic yield of 96%. Out of these, 58.16% (89/153) had CD, 26.14% (40/153) had ITB, 6.5% (10/153) had infectious ileitis, and 9.15% (14/153) were indeterminate on histopathology. CT enterography correctly identified 78.65% (70/89) of CD and 75% (30/40) of ITB. CT enterography had a sensitivity of 78.65% and 75%, specificity of 67.19% and 87.61%, positive predictive value of 76.92% and 68.18%, and diagnostic accuracy of 73.86% and 84.31% for diagnosing CD and ITB, respectively.

Conclusions

CT enterography provided a high diagnostic yield in ileocaecal mucosal lesions of uncertain significance on endoscopy. CD and ITB were the predominant diseases detected in these individuals. CT enterography had a good diagnostic performance in the detection of these 2 disorders.
Literature Review Video Animasi Berbasis Budaya
Authors: Yasmin Aisyah Faradhilah , Sudikan Setya Yuwana , Hendratno Hendratno
Published: December 2023

Penelitian yang dilakukan dengan menggunakan metode literature review yang mengkaji tentang video animasi berbasis budaya telah terkumpul sebanyak 74 artikel ilmiah yang terindeks dan akses platform google scholar terbit tahun 2014-2023 dan menentukan 40 artikel yang sesuai dengan variabel pada judul penelitian. Berdasarkan teori-teori yang telah dikaji dalam penelitian ini, video animasi berbasis budaya sangatlah sesuai untuk proses pembelajaran menjadi efektif, efisien sekaligus dapat tercapainya tujuan pembelajaran. Penggunaan video animasi berbasis budaya dalam proses pembelajaran terutama di sekolah dasar dapat meningkatkan motivasi, minat belajar, hasil belajar dan menumbuhkan karakter siswa agar menjadi lebih baik. Pelestarian budaya lokal (Jombang) melalui video animasi merupakan salah satu cara agar tidak punah sekaligus memanfaatkan globalisasi sebagai alat penghubung informasi keragaman budaya lokal di Indonesia.
Effect of Tick-Borne Haemoparasitic Diseases on Haematological Parameters of Small Ruminants Managed Under Semi-intensive System in Wukari Town Taraba State Nigeria
Authors: NYIFI Ambi Silas , BILBONGA Garleya
Published: December 2023

This study was conducted to determine the effect of tick-borne haemo-parasitic diseases on haematological parameters of small ruminants managed under semi-intensive system in Wukari town Taraba State, Nigeria. A total of 100 blood samples were collected from sheep (n = 50) and goats (n = 50) from February to March, 2023. Giemsa stained blood smears were prepared and examined under light microscope, to screen for haemo-parasites. Packed cell volume (PCV) was determined by microhaematocrit centrifugation technique while haemoglobin (Hb) concentration was determined by Sahli’s method. The total white blood cell (WBC) was estimated with Neubauer haemocytometer. The results showed 13% overall prevalence of tick-borne haemo-parasitic diseases. Prevalence based on specie of animal was higher in goats (16%) than in sheep (10%). Prevalence was observed higher in adults than the young, and there was significant difference between age and prevalence of the haemo-parasites. Sex-wise, prevalence of haemo parasites in both goats and sheep was significantly higher in females than males. Anaplasma infection was more prevalent than Babesia infection in both species of the animals examined. The mean values of PCV, Hb concentration of infected sheep were significantly (P<0.05) lower than the uninfected sheep. Similarly, the mean values of PCV and Hb concentration were significantly (p<0.05) lower in infected goats. This study has confirmed that tick-borne haemo-parasitic diseases cause anaemia in infected goats and sheep kept in the study area. We recommend tick control using suitable acaricides, periodic screening and treatment of small ruminants in the study area.
Hifz – learning the qur'an by heart in the educational institutions of the Islamic community in Bosnia and Herzegovina
Authors: Ibrahimović Maid , Husejnović Safet
Published: December 2023

Allah honored people with the Revelation and it is a great blessing for them. Reading the Qur'an by looking at it and memorizing it, as well as thinking about its meanings, are among the most valuable things that a religious person can do during life. The aim of this paper is to present hifz classes at Islamic faculties, madrasahs, and in student dormitories. It also attempts to point out the important role of the Islamic community in promoting the study and memorization of the Qur'an. Moreover, it deals with the analysis of the hard work on revitalizing the memorization (hifz) of the Qur'an in the educational institutions of the Islamic community, as well as with defining the relationship to the hifz, i.e., learning the Qur'an by heart. The establishment of hifz classes within educational institutions of the Islamic community in Bosnia and Herzegovina and beyond contributed to the development and promotion of the Qur’an memorization. The work of all classes for learning the Qur'an by heart (hifz) was analyzed and reviewed, and then reasons for their work were given, while former results as well numerous other things closely related to their work were also considered. We tried to provide an adequate and as complete as possible overview of the hifz classes in our region.
Keywords: the Qur'an, hifz, classes, madrasah, faculty, education.
The anthropological facts in the qur’an about a man as “a ruler” and “a slave”
Authors: Makić Adil
Published: December 2023

The aim of this study is quite layered and could be expressed, in a broader sense, through the phrase: deconstruction of human nature in the Qur'an. In a more specific sense, this paper intends to argue for the effectiveness of the complementarity of the roles of "khalif" and "abd" (a ruler and a slave) in a man, in the three-dimensional tension between three essential elements related to humans as "endowed", "in charge" and "responsible" beings, along with "dependency" as a central and relevant determinant. In further elaboration of the topic, we will to a certain extent discuss the Qur'anic sources that emphasize the two-dimensionality of human nature and that suggest their equal and proportional treatment. This modest study will try to project an adequate treatment of two diametrically different dimensions of a human being - material and spiritual, whose heterogeneous structure unites and merges into a homogeneous and coherent whole, and as such realizes the predestination roles of "Khalif" and "abd" (a ruler and a slave) here and now.
Keywords: the Qur'an, khalif (a ruler), abd (a slave),
EDUCAÇÃO À DISTÂNCIA E PLATAFORMAS DIGITAIS
Authors: Borba Miriam Veras , França Izaias Silva de
Published: December 2023

O presente artigo mostra um apanhado da literatura sobre educação digital, buscando definir o conceito de educação à distância, seja através da literatura, ou mesmo de normas editadas por autoridades governamentais. Ainda, trouxe exemplos de plataformas digitais utilizadas como ferramentas no ensino à distância, a fim que os leitores possam tomar conhecimento das plataformas que podem ser encontradas com mais facilidade. Além disso, através de pesquisas realizadas por outros autores, buscou-se mostrar não apenas as vantagens trazidas no processo de educação através do modelo EAD, mas também os desafios enfrentados por todos os atores que fazem deste processo.
Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity and aerosol-induced cooling
Authors: Morgenstern Olaf
Published: December 2023

Abstract. The most recent generation of climate models that has informed the 6th Assessment Report (AR6) of IPCC is characterized by the presence of several models with anomalously large equilibrium climate sensitivities (ECSs) relative to the previous generation. Partly as a result, AR6 did not use any direct quantifications of ECSs based on 4xCO2 simulations and relied on other evidence when assessing the Earth’s actual ECS. Here I use the historical observed global-mean surface air temperature and simulations produced under the Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project to constrain the ECS and historical aerosol-related cooling. Based on 15 largely independent models I obtain an average adjusted ECS of 3.4±0.8 K (at 68 % confidence), which is very consistent with the AR6 estimate. Furthermore, importantly I find that the optimal cooling due to anthropogenic aerosols consistent with the observed temperature record should on average be about 34±31 % of what these models simulate, yielding a multi-model-mean, global-, and annual-mean aerosol-related cooling for 2000–2014, relative to 1850–1899, of -0.19±0.14 K (at 68 % confidence), when these models simulate on average -0.63±0.28 K. For 12 models the reduction in aerosol-related cooling equals or exceeds 50 %. There is a correlation between the models’ ECS and their aerosol-related cooling, whereby large-ECS models tend to be associated also with large aerosol-related cooling. The results imply that a large reduction of the aerosol-related cooling, along with a more moderate adjustment of the greenhouse-gas related warming, for most models would bring the historical global mean temperature simulated by these models into better agreement with observations.
Spatial patterns of Organic Matter content in the surface soil of the salt marshes of the Venice Lagoon (Italy)
Authors: Puppin Alice , Tognin Davide , Ghinassi Massimiliano , Franceschinis Erica , Realdon Nicola , Marani Marco , D'Alpaos Andrea
Published: December 2023

Abstract. Salt marshes are crucial eco-geomorphic features of tidal environments as they provide numerous important ecological functions and deliver a wide range of ecosystem services that contribute to human well-being. Being controlled by the interplay between hydrodynamics, geomorphology and vegetation, the deposition of both organic matter (OM) and inorganic sediments drives salt-marsh vertical accretion. This allows marshes to keep pace with relative sea-level rise, and likewise capture and store carbon, making them valuable allies in climate mitigation strategies. Thus, Soil Organic Matter (SOM), i.e. the organic component of the soil, plays a key role within salt-marsh environments, directly contributing to soil formation and supporting carbon storage. This study aims at inspecting spatial patterns of OM in surface salt-marsh soils, providing further insights into the physical and biological factors driving OM dynamics, affecting salt-marsh survival and carbon sink potential. Our results reveal two scales of variations in sedimentary OM content in salt-marsh soils. At the marsh scale OM variability is influenced by the interplay between surface elevation and changes in sediment supply linked with the distance from tidal channels. At the system scale, OM content distribution is dominated by the gradient generated by marine and fluvial influence. Variations in inorganic and organic inputs, both autochthonous and allochthonous, sediment grain size, and preservation conditions may explain the observed variations in SOM. Our results highlight marsh importance as carbon sink environments, furthermore emphasizing that environmental conditions within a tidal system may generate strongly variable and site-specific carbon accumulation patterns, enhancing blue carbon assessment complexity.
Probabilistic hazard assessment of the gas emission of Mefite d’Ansanto, Southern Italy
Authors: Dioguardi Fabio , Chiodini Giovanni , Costa Antonio
Published: December 2023

Abstract. The emission of gas species dangerous for human health and life is a widespread source of hazard in various natural contexts. These mainly include volcanic areas but also non-volcanic geological contexts. A notable example of the latter occurrence is the Mefite d’Ansanto area in the Southern Apennines in Italy. Here, large emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) occur at rates that make this the largest non-volcanic CO2 gas emission in Italy and probably of the Earth. Given the topography of the area, in certain meteorological conditions a cold gas stream forms in the valleys surrounding the emission zone, which proved to be potentially lethal for humans and animals in the past. In this study we present a gas hazard quantification study that considers the main specie, that is CO2, and the potential effect of the most dangerous, which is hydrogen sulphide (H2S). For these purposes we used VIGIL, a tool that manages the workflow of gas dispersion simulations specifically optimised for probabilistic hazard applications. Results are discussed and presented in form of maps of CO2 and H2S concentration and persistence at various exceedance probabilities considering the gas emission rates and their possible range of variation defined in previous studies.
ChinaSoyArea10m: a dataset of soybean planting areas with a spatial resolution of 10 m across China from 2017 to 2021
Authors: Mei Qinghang , Zhang Zhao , Han Jichong , Song Jie , Dong Jinwei , Wu Huaqing , Xu Jialu , Tao Fulu
Published: December 2023

Abstract. Soybean, an essential food crop, has witnessed a steady rise in demand in recent years. There is a lack of high-resolution annual maps depicting soybean planting areas in China, despite China being the world’s largest consumer and fourth largest producer of soybeans. To address this gap, we developed a novel method called phenological- and pixel-based soybean area mapping (PPS) based on Sentinel-2 remote sensing images from the Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. We utilized various auxiliary data (e.g., cropland layer, detailed phenology observations) to select the distinct features that differentiate soybeans most effectively from other crops across various regions. These features were then input for an unsupervised classifier (K-means), and the most likely type was determined by a post-classification method based on dynamic time warping (DTW). For the first time, we generated a dataset of soybean planting areas across China, with a high spatial resolution of 10 meters, spanning from 2017 to 2021 (ChinaSoyArea10m). The R2 values between the mapping results and the census data at both county- and prefecture-level were consistently around 0.85 in 2017–2020. Moreover, the overall accuracy of mapping results at the field level in 2017, 2018, and 2019 were 77 %, 84 % and 88 %, respectively. Compared with the existing 10-m crop-type maps in Northeast China (Cropland Data Layer, CDL) based on field samples and supervised classification methods, the mapping accuracy is significantly improved by 31 % (R2 increases from 0.53 to 0.84) according to their consistency with census data, particularly at the county level. ChinaSoyArea10m is spatially consistent well with the two existing datasets (CDL and GLAD maize-soybean map). ChinaSoyArea10m provides important information for sustainable soybean production and management, as well as agricultural system modeling and optimization. ChinaSoyArea10m can be downloaded from an open-data repository (DOI: https://zenodo.org/doi/10.5281/zenodo.10071426, Mei et al., 2023).
Observation-based sowing dates and cultivars significantly affect yield and irrigation for some crops in the Community Land Model (CLM5)
Authors: Rabin Sam S. , Sacks William J. , Lombardozzi Danica L. , Xia Lili , Robock Alan
Published: December 2023

Abstract. Farmers around the world time the planting of their crops to optimize growing season conditions and choose varieties that grow slowly enough to take advantage of the entire growing season while minimizing the risk of late-season kill. As climate changes, these strategies will be an important component of agricultural adaptation. Thus, it is critical that the global models used to project crop productivity under future conditions are able to realistically simulate growing season timing. This is especially important for climate- and hydrosphere-coupled crop models, where the intra-annual timing of crop growth and management affects regional weather and water availability. We have improved the crop module of the Community Land Model (CLM) to allow the use of externally specified crop planting dates and maturity requirements. In this way, CLM can use alternative algorithms for future crop calendars that are potentially more accurate and/or flexible than the built-in methods. Using observation-derived planting and maturity inputs reduces bias in the mean simulated global yield of sugarcane and cotton but increases bias for corn, spring wheat, and especially rice. These inputs also reduce simulated global irrigation demand by 15 %, much of which is associated with particular regions of corn and rice cultivation. Finally, we discuss how our results suggest areas for improvement in CLM and, potentially, similar crop models.
How the meteorological spectral nudging impacts on aerosol radiation clouds interactions?
Authors: Menut Laurent , Bessagnet Bertrand , Cholakian Arineh , Siour Guillaume , Mailler Sylvain , Pennel Romain
Published: December 2023

Abstract. Meteorological and chemical modelling at the regional scale involve nudging to remain consistent with large-scale meteorology and meteo-chemical coupling to properly consider the interactions between aerosols, clouds and radiations. Both types of process can change meteorology, but not for the same reasons and not necessarily in the same way. To assess the possible interactions between nudging and coupling, several simulations are carried out with the WRF-CHIMERE coupled model. By comparison with measurements, we show that the use of nudging significantly improves the model performances. We also show that coupling changes the results much less than nudging. Finally, we show that when nudging is used, it limits the variability in the results due to coupling.
Impact of spatio-temporal dependence on the frequency of precipitation extremes: Negligible or neglected?
Authors: Serinaldi Francesco
Published: December 2023

Abstract. Statistics is often abused and misused in hydro-climatology, thus causing research to get stuck around unscientific concepts that hinder scientific advances. In this study, we focus on the iterated underestimation and misinterpretation of the role of spatio-temporal dependence in statistical analysis of hydro-climatological processes. To this aim, we analyze the occurrence process of extreme precipitation (P) derived from 100-year daily time series recorded at 1,106 worldwide gauges of the Global Historical Climatology Network. The analysis relies on a model-based approach involving first-order Poisson integer autoregressive processes (Poisson-INAR(1)), nonhomogeneous Poisson processes (NHP), and Iterative Amplitude Adjusted Fourier Transform (IAAFT), which are used to describe and simulate the frequency of P events. This approach allows us to highlight the actual impact of spatio-temporal dependence and finite sample size on statistical inference, resulting in over-dispersed marginal distributions and biased estimates of dependence properties, such as autocorrelation and power spectrum density. These issues also affect the outcome and interpretation of statistical tests for trend detection. Overall, stationary stochastic processes incorporating the empirical spatio-temporal correlation and its effects provide a faithful description of the occurrence process of extreme P at various spatio-temporal scales. Therefore, accounting for the effect of dependence in the analysis of the frequency of extreme P has huge impact that cannot be ignored.
Return levels of extreme European windstorms, their dependency on the North Atlantic Oscillation, and potential future risks
Authors: Priestley Matthew D. K. , Stephenson David B. , Scaife Adam A. , Bannister Daniel , Allen Christopher J. T. , Wilkie David
Published: December 2023

Abstract. Windstorms are the most damaging natural hazard across western Europe. Risk modellers are limited by the observational data record to only ∼ 60 years of comprehensive reanalysis data that are dominated by considerable inter-annual variability. This makes estimating return periods of rare events difficult and sensitive to the choice of the historical period used. This study proposes a novel statistical method for estimating wind gusts across Europe based on observed windstorm footprints. A good description of extreme wind speeds is obtained by assuming that gust speed peaks over threshold are distributed exponentially, i.e. a generalised Pareto distribution having a zero shape parameter. The threshold and tail scale parameter are estimated at each location and used to calculate estimates of the 10- and 200-year return levels. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is particularly important for modulating lower return levels and modulating the threshold, with a less detectable influence on rarer extremes and the tail scale parameter. The length of historical data required to have the lowest error in estimating return levels is quantified using both observed and simulated time series of the historical NAO. For reducing errors in estimating 200-year return levels of an independent 10-year period, a data catalogue of at least 20 years is required. For lower return levels the NAO has a stronger influence on estimated return levels, and so there is more variability in estimates. Using theoretical estimates of future NAO states, return levels are largely outside the historical uncertainty, indicating significant increases in risk potential from windstorms in the next 100 years. Our method presents a framework for assessing high-return-period events across a range of hazards without the additional complexities of a full catastrophe model.
Fast solutions to tempered fractional nanofluid flow for solar energy
Authors:   , Fenwick Jack
Published: December 2023

This thesis is a step forward in developing fast numerical methods for solving fractional partial differential equations. It investigates a fast numerical solver for a system of tempered fractional nanofluid flow equations with application in solar energy transport. The advantages of the numerical solver allowed the effects of the tempered Caputo time derivative and other model parameters to be analysed quickly. To test this new numerical method it was applied to a highly coupled system of tempered fractional nanofluid flow equations, which then enabled the effects of the tempered derivative and other parameters to be analysed.
Conceptualisations of wellbeing: Through the eyes of primary carers of autistic children
Authors:   , Baird-Bate Kirsten
Published: December 2023

Primary carers provide critical supports to autistic children with the effectiveness of such supports relying on the wellbeing of the primary carer. Yet current understandings of wellbeing within autism literature are limited. This mixed methods study examined how primary carers of autistic children conceptualised wellbeing and the factors that influenced wellbeing. The data revealed primary carers conceptualised wellbeing as multidimensional, subjective, and malleable and highlighted their role as active agents. Findings contribute a strength-perspective to the literature and valuably emphasise the need to centralise primary carer wellbeing within policies and systems aimed at optimizing outcomes for autistic children is asserted.
Analyzing the Financial Sector Nexus Economic Growth of Pakistan: New Insights from ARDL Approach
Authors: Kanwal Amna , Hassan Muzammal , Butt Haris
Published: December 2023

In the context of Pakistan, this study looks at how local financial sector expansion and foreign capital inflows affect economic growth. The Error Correction Model is used for short run connections and the ARDL bounds testing technique to cointegration is used for long run interactions, using yearly data series from the Economic Survey of Pakistan and the WDI for the years 1998–2022. Empirical research indicates that foreign capital inflows boost economic expansion. Economic growth is facilitated by both government investment and the expansion of the financial sector. Technology, the human capital pool, and remittances all contribute positively to economic growth. According to the latest report, financial reforms should be implemented by the Pakistani government to increase the effectiveness of the country's financial industry and, eventually, accelerate economic growth.
A review of depositional ages of the metasedimentary rocks in the units
of the eastern Circum-Rhodope belt, Bulgaria-Greece
Authors: Bonev Nikolay , Filipov Petyo
Published: December 2023

The Circum-Rhodope belt is a major tectonic unit in the Alpine orogen of northern Aegean region, which consists of metasedimentary rocks and unmetamorphosed arc-related Jurassic Evros ophiolite. Here, we review the biostratigraphic and detrital zircon ages available for the distinct units of the eastern Circum-Rhodope belt in Bulgaria and Greece. Both, biostratigraphic and radiometric ages consistently reveal a Middle Triassic to latest Late Jurassic timing of the sedimentation. Most importantly, the continuous depositional record sketches sedimentary sources from the continental margin (Rhodope) and the Jurassic arc system (Evros ophiolite) as documented mostly by the detrital zircons in clastic successions.
The Bessarabian (Sarmatian) reef buildup between the village of Tyulenovo and Cape Shabla (Northeastern Bulgaria) as climatic and paleoecological indicator
Authors: Koleva-Rekalova Elena
Published: December 2023

The Bessarabian (Sarmatian) limestones composed mainly of endemic foraminifera Nubicularia novorossica are studied in detail in three sections between the village of Tyulenovo and Cape Shabla (Northeastern Bulgaria). An important reef buildup found in the upper levels of the sections allows to reconstruct the climatic and paleoenvironmental conditions. The most prominent changes are а shift from subtropical to drier climate and increased wave activity. This led to a decrease in the amount of Nubicularia novorossica and an increase in encrusting organisms such as encrusting nubicularia, bryozoans and red algae, which protected the newly formed sediments from destruction by the strong wave disturbance. The occurrence of less favorable climatic conditions is also evidenced by the presence of microbial micrite masses in the reef limestones.
Calpionellid biostratigraphy and microfacies across the Tithonian/Berriasian boundary interval in the Western Fore-Balkan, Bulgaria
Authors: Petrova Silviya , Andreeva Polina , Lakova Iskra
Published: December 2023

The upper Tithonian and the lower Berriasian in the Western Fore-Balkan in Bulgaria (Gintsi and Glozhene Formations) represent a remarkable, stratigraphically expanded record of pelagic nodular and micritic limestones. More than 50 studied thin sections revealed the succession of the Chitinoidella, Praetintinnopsella, Crassicollaria, and Calpionella zones, further divided into subzones. The stratigraphical ranges of 22 chitinoidellid (the genera Almajella, Borziella, Carpathella, Chitinoidella, Daciella, Dobeniella, Longicollaria, and Praetintinnopsella) and 26 calpionellid species of the genera Tintinnopsella, Crassicollaria, Calpionella, Remaniella, Borzaiella and Lorenziella have been recorded. Eight microfacies, two of which in the Gintsi Formation, and six microfacies in the Glozhene Formation have been distinguished, all being wackestones and mudstones, characteristic of open-marine pelagic deposits and differing from each other in the prevailing bioclasts. The Tithonian/Berriasian boundary was tentatively drawn at the Crassicollaria/Calpionella boundary.
Tectono-magmatic factors for porphyry Cu-(Mo-Au) deposits formation: A case study from Pishtene ore deposit, Western Srednogorie, Bulgaria
Authors: Velev Stefan
Published: December 2023

Porphyry ore deposits are the source of much of the copper, molybdenum, gold and silver. Porphyry hydrothermal systems typically form in magmatic arcs above subduction zones. In this article, some key factors that may be involved in the formation of the Pishtene porphyry deposit in Western Srednogorie are outlined. The first process is the generation of magma in sub-arc mantle and enrichment of metals, water and other fluids. Next stage is а cyclic crystal fractionation in deep crustal magma chamber. There are a lot of other factors, such as a sulphide saturation, metal partitioning, precipitation of ore minerals, magmatic-hydrothermal evolution, erosional and weathering processes, but they are not discussed in this study.
Mineralogical characteristics of Suhostrel bituminous coal, SW Bulgaria
Authors: Zdravkov Alexander , Yanchev Denislav
Published: December 2023

The mineralogical composition of the Suhostrel bituminous coal was studied using optical microscopy, XRD and SEM-EDS analyses. Clay minerals (mostly kaolinite and mica), quartz and locally albite, are the dominant minerals. Their characteristics indicate predominant terrigenous origin and together with a poor accessory mineral association (rutile/anatase, monazite, zircon) argue for a major detrital input from low grade metamorphic and weathered intrusive/pegmatitic rocks.
Impact аssessment of the September 2022 disaster in the area of Karavelovo, Bogdan, and Slatina villages, Karlovo Municipality
Authors: Dotseva Zornitsa , Gerdjikov Ianko , Vangelov Dian
Published: December 2023

On September 2nd, 2022, an intense and prolonged rainfall event caused severe flooding, landslides, debris flows, and groundwater rise, resulting in substantial damage, particularly in the northern slopes of Sredna Gora Mountain in Central Bulgaria. Various methodologies, including field analysis, remote sensing, and GIS tools, were employed to analyze the disaster’s causes and field conditions. Active sediment sources, deposition patterns, and mapping techniques were used to document the disaster’s impact. The results showed that the disaster resulted from the formation of numerous landslides, and rapid hydrological response led to riverine flooding, high-speed flows, and sediment deposition. An important contribution of this study is the generated landslide inventory map, that can be used for mountain road reconstruction and the planning of mitigation measures.
Temperature gradient along the northern slope of the Western Rhodopes
Authors: Matev Simeon , Bojkov Petko , Krenchev Dimitar , Nikolova Nina
Published: December 2023

The article examines the values of the vertical temperature gradient along the northern slope of the Western Rhodopes Мountain. The average monthly temperatures in three stations located between 290 and 1535 m a.s.l. were used as the basis of the calculations. Calculations were made for the following temperature indicators: monthly average, average minimum and average maximum, and absolute minimum and absolute maximum. The study covers the period July 2022 – August 2023. The values of the vertical temperature gradient are greatest in the summer and smallest in the autumn-winter period. In the lower part of the studied territory, in winter the gradient also has negative values, due to temperature inversions, and in summer its values are three times greater than in the upper part, due to the greater turbulence of the atmosphere.
Atherogenic features of the fatty acid profile of erythrocyte membranes of patients with fatty liver disease of mixed genesis
Authors: Kruchinina M. V. , Belkovets A. V. , Parulikova M. V. , Gromov A. A.
Published: December 2023

Aim of the study was to investigate the features of the fatty acid (FA) profile of erythrocyte membranes of patients with fatty liver disease (FLD) of mixed genesis (metabolic + alcoholic) from the point of view of atherogenic changes.

Material and methods. 31 men (50.6 ± 9.9 years old) with FLD of mixed genesis, the degree of liver fibrosis corresponded to 0-1 (FibroScan ® 502 Echosens, France), and 28 persons of the comparison group, comparable in age, were examined. The study of the composition of FAs of erythrocyte membranes was carried out using gas chromatography/mass spectrometry – a system based on three quadrupoles Agilent 7000B (USA).

Results. Patients with FLD of mixed genesis had higher level of palmitoleic (p = 0.03), pentadecanoic (p = 0.05), omega-6 to omega-3 polyunsaturated fatter acids (PUFA) ratio (p = 0.03) and, conversely, lower level of docosahexaenoic (p = 0.0002), total content of eicosapentaenoic and docosahexaenoic FA (p = 0.0007), of all omega-3 PUFA (p = 0.001) in the membranes of erythrocytes compared to healthy persons. There are trends towards a decrease in the content of omega-3 eicosapentaenoic acid and an increase in the ratio of SFA/PUFA in patients with fibroids of mixed genesis in contrast to healthy individuals. The level of individual FA provided high diagnostic accuracy in differentiating patients with FLD of mixed genesis from healthy individuals: palmitoleic (9-C16:1) (area under ROC (AUC) 0.702, sensitivity 66.7 %, specificity 69.6 %), docosahexaenoic (C22:6n-3) (AUC 0.795, sensitivity 77.3 %, specificity 78.3 %), as well as the total content of eicosapentaenoic and docosegexaenoic FA (C20:5n-3 + C22:6n-3) (AUC 0.777, sensitivity 70.1 %, specificity 82.6 %).

Conclusions. The revealed features of the profile of erythrocyte membrane FA in FLD of mixed genesis – increase of saturated, monounsaturated, omega-6 PUFA content and reduce of omega-3 PUFA concentration are atherogenic. The continuation of research in terms of the use of FAs as biomarkers of this pathology and targets for therapeutic effects should be considered promising.
The effect of elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol on surfactant proteins SP-A and SP-D content as a new mechanism of atherogenesis
Authors: Nikolaev K. Yu. , Lapitskaya Ya. K. , Kosarev I. A. , Dadashova N. F.
Published: December 2023

Aim of the study was to evaluate the effect of elevated level of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) on surfactant protein SP-A and SP-D content in blood, as a new factor of atherogenesis, in men and women in Novosibirsk.

Materials and methods. The study included 174 people (87 men and 87 women), residents of Novosibirsk, aged 45 to 69 years. An anthropometric examination, measurement of blood pressure, determination of the lipid spectrum, blood glucose and surfactant proteins SP-A and SP-D content (enzyme immunoassay).

Results. According to the results of the examination, 82 examined persons (47.1 %) were included in the group with LDL-C content > 3.0 mmol/l(main group), 92 – in the group with LDL-C content ≤ 3.0 mmol/l (comparison group) (52.9 %). The value of high SP-A and SP-D content (upper quartile) was determined, which amounted to ≥ 1413 pg/ml SP-A in men and ≥ 1649 pg/ml in women, and ≥ 1772 ng/ml SP-D in men and ≥ 1626 ng/ml in women. It was found that in the main group, the body weight of the examined persons was lower than in the comparison group, and high SP-A level was more common (p = 0.033). In the total sample a direct association of upper quartile SP-A level with LDL-C content > 3.0 mmol/l was revealed (p = 0.021). Using multivariate analysis, it was found that LDL-C concentration > 3.0 mmol/l is an independent factor that directly affects the dependent variable the presence of high SP-A level in general totality of examined individuals (odds ratio 2.20, 95 % confidence interval 1.05–4.62, p = 0.036).

Conclusions. In men and women of Novosibirsk, aged 45–69 years, high blood SP-A level (≥ 1413 pg/ml in men and ≥ 1649 pg/ml in women) occurs more often at LDL-C content > 3.0 mmol/l than at LDL-C level ≤ 3.0 mmol/l. In the total sample of the examined persons, a direct association of high SP-A with LDL-C content > 3.0 mmol/l was revealed, and using multivariate analysis it was found that LDL-C concentration > 3.0 mmol/l directly affects the presence of high blood SP-A level and increases the probability of this event by 2.2 times.
Associations of Klotho protein level and blood lipid parameters with carotid atherosclerosis in men
Authors: Timoshchenko O. V. , Shchepina Yu. V. , Ragino Yu. I. , Stakhneva E. M. , Shramko V. S. , Ryabikov A. N.
Published: December 2023

Aim of the study was to investigate the association of serum Klotho protein content and lipid parameters with atherosclerosis of the brachiocephalic arteries (BCA) in men.

Material and methods. A cross-sectional comparative study that included men aged 50–65 years (n = 63, age 54 [53; 60] years (median [lower quartile; upper quartile])) underwent ultrasound examination of BCA at the outpatient department of the Institute of Internal and Preventive Medicine. Biochemical parameters were determined by standard enzymatic methods. Serum concentration of Klotho protein was measured by enzyme immunoassay.

Results. A trend towards content of Klotho protein in serum was found in the group of persons with BCA atherosclerosis compared to the group without BCA atherosclerosis (705 [463; 1255] and 447 [282; 881] pg/ml, respectively, p = 0.061). Also, in men of this group, higher level of triglycerides (TG) (1.7 [1.1; 2.2] and 1.4 [0.9; 1.8] mmol/l, p = 0.046) and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) content (1.1 [0.8; 1.3] m 1.4 [0.9; 1.6] mmol/l, p = 0.016) has been found. Correlation analysis in the group of men with BCA atherosclerosis revealed a direct relationship of Klotho protein with TG level (0.290; p = 0.031) and a negative relationship with HDL-C content (–0.361; p = 0.046). The results of logistic regression analysis showed that the probability of atherosclerotic plaques presence in BCA increased by 1.2 times (95 % confidence interval (95 % CI) 1.0–1.4, p = 0.038) with increasing age and by 9.2 times (95 % CI 2, 3–36.5, p = 0.002) in the presence of hypertension.

Conclusions. In a clinical sample of men aged 50–65 years, the relative risk of carotid atherosclerosis is directly associated with age and the presence of hypertension and is not associated with the level of Klotho serum protein.