bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Variação da mortalidade por suicídio em idosos da região sul do Brasil: 2006 a 2015/ Variation of mortality by suicide in older adults in the southern region of Brazil: 2006 to 2015
Authors: Confortin Susana Cararo , Andrade Selma Regina de , Cunha Kamylla Santos da , Barbosa Aline Rodrigues
Published: August 2019

Objetivo: analisar a variação anual percentual média da taxa de mortalidade por suicídio em idosos na região Sul do Brasil entre 2006 e 2015. Métodos:estudo descritivo com dados do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade e Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística. Foram incluídos óbitos de idosos (de 60-69, 70-79 e 80 anos ou mais) cujacausa básica foi suicídio, de acordo com a CID-10, referentes aos códigos X60-X84, Y10-Y19 e Y87. Resultados: houve aumento significativo na variação das taxas de mortalidade por suicídio no Brasil (2008 a 2015) e no Paraná (2009 a 2015), e redução no Paraná (2006 a 2009). Ao analisar os grupos etários, houve aumento significativo na taxa de mortalidade por suicídio entre os idosos de 70 a 79 anos no Brasil (2008 a 2015) e no Paraná (de 2009 a 2015). Para o grupo etário de 60 a 69 anos, houve redução significativa das taxas, de 2006 a 2010, e aumento das taxas de mortalidade por suicídio de 2010 a 2015 no Paraná, e de 2006 a 2015 em Santa Catarina. Conclusão: constatou-se tendência crescente da taxa de mortalidade por suicídio em idosos, no grupo geral, no Brasil e Paraná. As taxas de mortalidade se diferenciaram entre os estados e grupos etários.
O objeto e o método da psicologia histórico-cultural
Authors: Kravtsov G. G. , Kravtsova E. E.
Published: August 2019

No presente artigo, examina-se, brevemente, a crise por que passava a Psicologia à época em que L. S. Vigotski viveu e construiu sua obra científica. Ela é identificada como a crise que envolvia a definição do próprio objeto de estudo da Psicologia. As diversas tentativas realizadas com o intuito de definir o objeto dessa nova ciência que emergia geraram inúmeras visões, por vezes até antagônicas. Essa multiplicidade de visões, identificadas como diferentes escolas de pensamento a respeito da Psicologia, acabou por transformá-la numa pseudociência, vazia de seu próprio conteúdo. Foi em meio a essa crise que Vigotski formulou e apresentou uma nova e revolucionária visão teórica que rompeu com o reducionismo então vigente. São aqui apresentadas, resumidamente, suas principais ideias e fundamentos acerca do que seria o objeto da Psicologia e sua indissociável relação com o método que utiliza.Palavras-chave: Psicologia histórico-cultural. L.S. Vigotski. Objeto e método de estudo.
A review of research on the Job Characteristics Model and the attendant job diagnostic survey
Authors: Boonzaier Billy , Ficker Bernhard , Rust Braam
Published: August 2019

The Job Characteristics Model is widely accepted as a conceptual tool for addressing problems related to employee demotivation, dissatisfaction and marginal performance. The validity of the Job Characteristics Model (Hackman & Oldham, 1980) was assessed by reviewing relevant studies of the model. The review and evaluation is based on studies which test the variables and the relationships between variables as contained in the model. The evidence confirms that the dimensionality of the job characteristics is best represented by the five-factor solution as proposed by the model. The subjective self-report measures of the five job characteristics as formulated by the theory and measured by the revised Job Diagnostic Survey (JDS) are also supported. No evidence was found for the multiplicative Motivating Potential Score (MPS) and as a result the use of a simple additive index of job complexity is recommended as predictor of personal and work outcomes. Strong empirical support exists for the relationships between the job characteristics and the personal outcomes. Strong relationships between the job characteristics and the work outcomes, however, fail to materialize. Results fail to support the mediating effect of psychological states on the job characteristics/outcomes relationships as specified by the model. The postulated relationships between job characteristics and psychological states are also not confirmed by empirical evidence. The role of growth-need strength, knowledge and skill, and work environment characteristics as moderators of the relationships between job characteristics and psychological states, as well as the relationships between psychological states and personal and work outcomes, are seriously questioned. Directions for future research on the Job Characteristics Model and the attendant Job Diagnostic Survey are proposed.
Adapting the Systems Model of Performance Management to major changes in the external and internal organisational environments
Authors: Spangenberg H. H. , Theron C. C.
Published: August 2019

In essence, this article discusses ways to ensure continued relevance of Performance Management in fast-changing environmental and organisational realities. It starts with the rationale for moving from performance appraisal to Performance Management. In view of some persisting problems with regard to Performance Management, a systems approach to help alleviate these problems is discussed. The current status of Performance Management is reviewed, based on international surveys and a recent report on the way Performance Management best-practice organisations utilise the system. In view of this information, the Systems Model of Performance Management is adapted. The paper is concluded with a discussion and recommendations for future research.
Towards a more scientific way of studying multicultural management
Authors: Rijamampianina R. , Maxwell T.
Published: August 2019

In recent years, the management of cultural diversity has become a popular topic within management in general and organisational behaviour and human resource management in particular. The progressive movement of the world into the post-modern era calls for a comprehensive, practical and realistic strategy to change not only the demographics of organisational members and their attitudes, but also the way in which multicultural organisations are managed. Controversies and uncertainties regarding current outcomes still prevail, possibly because of a lack of application of more scientific management styles and methodologies. Management approaches often appear to be based on unfounded assumptions, superficial observations and simplistic assessments. As a result, the derived outcomes are incongruent, oversimplistic, unrealistic and unreliable. To ensure the success of organisations in the growing global market, managers need to establish an effective approach to managing cultural diversity. This article examines some of the traditional concepts of culture and cultural diversity and employs illustrative empirical data to suggest a more scientific approach to the measurement of cultural diversity and its impact on the work environment and management.
Determinants of internal audit efficiency
Authors: Kruger H. A. , Steyn P. J. , Kearney W.
Published: August 2019

This paper describes a case study in which Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) methodology was combined with regression analysis to evaluate the efficiency of an Internal Audit (IA) department over twelve consecutive months. Efficiency of audit projects was first estimated using DEA. These results were then used as one of the outputs to perform a multi-period DEA study with a choice of other inputs and outputs specific to the Internal Audit department under review. The efficiency of audit projects is viewed as one of the key outputs of an IA department and an explanation of these efficiencies would therefore be useful (necessary) to enhance insights gained from the DEA model applied to the twelve months. To assist in this explanation a multiple regression model was employed in which the efficiency score obtained from the DEA computations for the audit projects was used as the dependent variable. Following a description of the models and data, the results are discussed and notes are made of certain aspects pertaining to the department reviewed.
The challenge of transformation: Breaking the barriers
Authors: Esterhuyse W. P.
Published: August 2019

One of the most commonly used concepts in post-apartheid South Africa is undoubtedly the concept ‘transformation’. In order to strip this concept of its ‘bewitchments’ (Nietzsche; Wittgenstein) a conceptual analysis is made of the meaning and usage of the term. In view of the distinction between first order change and second order change, the need for transformation (ethical and strategic), the resistance against transformation (systemic and individual) and the execution and management of transformation is discussed.
African culture and managerial behaviour: Clarifying the connections
Authors: Mufune P.
Published: August 2019

There is an increasing recognition that Management is a critical factor in the running of African organizations and in pulling African countries out of their economic crisis. Although efforts have been made to provide management and administrative training, the role of culture in management remains poorly understood. This paper evaluates studies that look at the role played by African culture in managerial behaviour. It examines how values and approaches derived from African culture may or may not be affecting managers and the functioning of organizations. It examines how African managers diverge from managers in other countries. It concludes by emphasizing that there are many shortcomings in research on the African culture-managerial behavior dynamic. It points to various suggestions that may help clarify the inconclusive results in this area of research.
The management consulting industry in South Africa: A strategic assessment
Authors: Oosthuizen H.
Published: August 2019

The Management Consulting Industry (MCI) is considered to be one of the most powerful forces shaping organisational strategy. However, from its major growth phase during the late 1980s into the 1990s, and until the present time, it now appears that the industry is in a mature consolidation phase. Perhaps even an early decline. The scope and nature of the MCI is global and, consequently, the South African industry is inextricably linked to and integrated with global developments. The local industry is large in absolute terms and high in value-adding propensity. Vertical integration is limited and little advantage appears to be taken of economics of scale. The industry moves in tandem with well established international driving forces and no inflection point is expected. Nevertheless, it is considered to be under severe competitive pressures which impose a dampening effect on the overall level of industry profitability. The competitive positions and profile of rival business strategic approaches display a degree of comparability in strategic typologies. Thus, the challenge for the ‘winners’ in the MCI will be to differentiate themselves for both strategic and marketing positioning and even to consider redefining the business model in this turbulent and fragmented industry.
A socio-cultural explanation of black entrepreneurship in South Africa
Authors: Co M. J.
Published: August 2019

This article attempts to provide the reader an analysis of why entrepreneurship levels among indigenous Africans are low by specifically using socio-cultural theories. Traditional views of entrepreneurship have emphasised psychological and economic models. Although these views explain entrepreneurial activity, neither can explain it holistically. The sociocultural theoretical approach takes into account differences among societies and cultures in explaining entrepreneurial activity. The choice of this theoretical perspective and the specific theories highlighted is rationalised in the first section of this paper. The paper covers five main socio-cultural theories namely: Weber´s Protestant ethic, Hagen´s withdrawal of status, social mobility, marginality and role models. A model is then conceptualised, incorporating the different variables affecting entrepreneurship as identified from the above-mentioned theories and using the Black South Africans as a case illustration.
Talent retention in a changing workplace: An investigation of variables considered important to South African talent
Authors: Birt M. , Wallis T. , Winternitz G.
Published: August 2019

In a workplace characterised by market-driven turnover, organisations attempting to retain those employees considered core to their purpose and continued success (referred to as ‘talent’) face a huge challenge in determining the factors instrumental in minimising turnover amongst this group. This research aimed to identify the variables important to this group of valued employees, with a specific focus on the South African context. In addition, it was aimed to discover the relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic variables to South African talent, particularly when these are considered as factors in their decisions to leave the organisation. It was found that South African talent placed great importance on intrinsic variables, although market opportunities were also considered highly significant in employees’ decisions to leave. The variable of ‘Concern with employment equity and affirmative action’ was revealed as a specifically South African variable, but it was not ranked as one of the participants’ top five most important variables influencing retention.
lt depends on one's attitude to change, whether or not present times are exciting or terrifying!
Authors: Tuft Richard
Published: August 2019

No abstract available.
Bone scintigraphy imaging of cardiac amyloidosis
Authors: Kuria Issa Menge , Gitau Samuel Nguku , Makhdomi Khalid Bashir
Published: August 2019

Transthyretin-related cardiac amyloidosis (ATTR) amyloidosis is an aggressive, rapidly progressive, and fatal disease, for which several promising therapies are in development. This condition is frequently underdiagnosed because of the limited specificity of echocardiography and the traditional requirement for histological diagnosis. It is well known that 99mtechnetium-labeled bone scan radiotracers can localize in the myocardial amyloid deposits, but the use of this imaging modality to differentiate between the two subtypes has only lately been revisited. We report a case of a 76-year-old man with a clinical diagnosis of amyloidosis who underwent a bone scan that had features of ATTR amyloidosis. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first case report in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Efficacy of Brentuximab Vedotin in Relapsed or Refractory High-CD30–Expressing Non-Hodgkin Lymphomas: Results of a Multicenter, Open-Labeled Phase II Trial
Authors: Kim Seok Jin , Yoon Dok Hyun , Kim Jin Seok , Kang Hye Jin , Lee Hye Won , Eom Hyeon-Seok , Hong Jung Yong , Cho Junhun , Ko Young Hyeh , Huh Jooryung , Yang Woo-Ick , Park Weon Seo , Lee Seung-Sook , Suh Cheolwon , Kim Won Seog
Published: August 2019

PurposeThe treatment outcome of brentuximab vedotin (BV) has not been related with CD30 expression in previous studies enrolling patients with a wide range of CD30 expression level. Thus, this study explored the efficacy of BV in high-CD30–expressing non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) patients most likely to benefit.Materials and MethodsThis phase II study (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT02280785) enrolled relapsed or refractory high-CD30–expressing NHL, with BV administered intravenously at 1.8 mg/kg every 3 weeks. The primary endpoint was > 40% disease control rate, consisting of complete response (CR), partial response (PR), or stable disease. We defined high CD30 expression as ≥ 30% tumor cells positive for CD30 by immunohistochemistry.ResultsHigh-CD30-expressing NHL patients (n=33) were enrolled except anaplastic large cell lymphoma. The disease control rate was 48.5% (16/33) including six CR and six PR; six patients (4CR, 2PR) maintained their response over 16 completed cycles. Response to BV and survival were not associated with CD30 expression levels. Over a median of 29.2 months of follow-up, the median progression-free and overall survival rates were 1.9 months and 6.1 months, respectively. The most common adverse events were fever (39%), neutropenia (30%), fatigue (24%), and peripheral sensory neuropathy (27%). In a post-hoc analysis for the association of multiple myeloma oncogene 1 (MUM1) on treatment outcome, MUM1- negative patients showed a higher response (55.6%, 5/9) than MUM1-positive patients (13.3%, 2/15).ConclusionBV performance as a single agent was acceptable in terms of disease control rates and toxicity profiles, especially MUM1-negative patients.
Case Report: Laparoscopic Excision of a Primary Giant Splenic Hydatid Cyst: Literature Review
Authors: Zhuoli Zhu , Yu Zhao , Liya Xu , Mingzhong Liu , Shengwei Li
Published: August 2019

Cystic echinococcosis (CE), also known as hydatid cyst, is a zoonosis caused by the tapeworm Echinococcus granulosus. It is a common health problem in many countries. This condition predominantly affects the liver and the lungs, and the spleen to a less extent (splenic hydatid cyst, SHD). Indeed, it is estimated that SHD occurs in less than 2% of abdominal CE and 0.5–8% of CE cases. Here, we present a case of a 44-year-old Chinese woman with primary giant SHD who experienced pain in the left hypochondrium for 10 days. A combination of abdominal ultrasonography and computed tomography (CT) were used for preoperative diagnosis. Laparoscopic splenectomy was performed without any complications, and albendazole (400 mg per day) was administered postoperatively for 3 months. At 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month follow-up, the patient remained symptoms free, and abdominal CT found no signs of recurrence. In addition to this case, we review the previous literature on SHD treated by laparoscopy and reveal that laparoscopic approach is safe and effective for SHD. Particularly, we show that laparoscopic splenectomy is feasible for giant cysts (> 10 cm) at high risk of rupture or compressing other vital structures.
Fisiopatologia e tratamento da pancreatite aguda
Authors: Duarte Amanda Santos , Roque Ana Bárbara Barbosa , Gouveia Manuella Anchieta , Pereira Juliana Pinheiro , Brito Ana Paula Santos Oliveira , Garcia Hamilton Cezar Rocha
Published: August 2019

Objetivo: Estudo de revisão sobre fisiopatologia e tratamento da pancreatite aguda. Método: Realizado por levantamento nas bases MEDLINE, LILACS e SCIELO. Resultados: 20 artigos foram identificados no período do estudo, todos com publicação de 2013 a 2019. Conclusão: A pancreatite aguda é uma patologia complexa que possui aspectos fisiopatológicos ainda desconhecidos, porém mecanismos como a conversão patológica do tripsinogênio em tripsina demonstraram ser de fundamental importância em variados estudos. Nenhuma terapia curativa está atualmente disponível para pancreatite aguda, e o tratamento precoce consiste em cuidados de suporte que incluem reanimação fluida adequada e gerenciamento de dor. O tratamento cirúrgico com necrosectomia é uma opção para pacientes com pancreatite necrosante infectada.
Percepção de Justiça Organizacional e Intenção de Turnover em Empresas de Auditoria
Authors: Beuren Ilse Maria , Ribeiro Flávio , Silva Oscar Lopes da
Published: August 2019

O estudo objetiva verificar a relação da percepção de justiça organizacional com satisfação no trabalho, comprometimento organizacional e intenção de turnover de auditores de empresas de auditoria. Uma pesquisa de levantamento foi realizada com os 2.561 auditores cadastrados no Instituto dos Auditores Independentes do Brasil, utilizando-se do questionário traduzido da pesquisa de Parker e Kohlmeyer (2005), e a amostra por acessibilidade compreendeu os 106 respondentes do instrumento de pesquisa. Na análise dos dados aplicou-se a modelagem de equações estruturais. Os resultados da pesquisa mostram que a percepção de discriminação (justiça organizacional) apresenta relação negativa e significativa com a variável satisfação no trabalho e comprometimento organizacional. Por outro lado, apresenta relação positiva e significativa com a intenção de turnover. Assim, conclui-se que os resultados indicam que a percepção de justiça organizacional dos auditores independentes pesquisados influencia significativamente sua satisfação no trabalho, comprometimento organizacional e intenção de saída da empresa de auditoria.
Detection of outflow of formaldehyde and glyoxal from the African continent to the Atlantic Ocean with a MAX-DOAS instrument
Authors: Behrens Lisa K. , Hilboll Andreas , Richter Andreas , Peters Enno , Alvarado Leonardo M. A. , Kalisz Hedegaard Anna B. , Wittrock Folkard , Burrows John P. , Vrekoussis Mihalis
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Trace gas maps retrieved from satellite measurements show enhanced
levels of the atmospheric volatile organic compounds formaldehyde
(HCHO) and glyoxal (CHOCHO) over the Atlantic Ocean. To
validate the spatial distribution of this continental outflow, ship-based
measurements were taken during the Continental Outflow of Pollutants
towards the MArine tRoposphere (COPMAR) project. A Multi-AXis Differential Optical
Absorption Spectrometer (MAX-DOAS) was operated aboard the research vessel
(RV) Maria S. Merian during cruise MSM58/2. This cruise was
conducted in October 2016 from Ponta Delgada (Azores) to Cape Town (South
Africa), crossing between Cabo Verde and the African continent. The
instrument was continuously scanning the horizon, looking towards the African
continent. Enhanced levels of HCHO and CHOCHO were found in the
area of expected outflow during this cruise. The observed spatial gradients
of HCHO and CHOCHO along the cruise track agree with the
spatial distributions from satellite measurements and the Model for OZone and Related chemical Tracers version 4 (MOZART-4) model
simulations. The continental outflow from the African continent is observed
in an elevated layer, higher than 1000 m, and probably originates from
biogenic emissions or biomass burning according to FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model (FLEXPART) emission
sensitivities.
A predictive group-contribution model for the viscosity of aqueous
organic aerosol
Authors: Gervasi Natalie R. , Topping David O. , Zuend Andreas
Published: August 2019

Abstract. The viscosity of primary and secondary organic aerosol (SOA) has important implications for the processing of aqueous organic aerosol phases in the atmosphere, their involvement in climate forcing, and transboundary pollution. Here we introduce a new thermodynamics-based group-contribution model, which is capable of accurately predicting the dynamic viscosity of a mixture over several orders of magnitude (~ 10−3 to > 1012 Pa s) as a function of temperature and mixture composition, accounting for the effect of relative humidity on aerosol water content. The mixture viscosity modelling framework builds on the thermodynamic activity coefficient model AIOMFAC (Aerosol Inorganic–Organic Mixtures Functional groups Activity Coefficients) for predictions of liquid mixture non-ideality, including liquid–liquid phase separation, and the calorimetric glass transition temperature model by DeRieux et al. (2018) for pure-component viscosity values of organic components. Comparing this new model with simplified modelling approaches reveals that the group-contribution method is the most accurate in predicting mixture viscosity, although accurate pure-component viscosity predictions (and associated experimental data) are key and one of the main sources of uncertainties in current models, including the model presented here. Nonetheless, we find excellent agreement between the viscosity predictions and measurements for systems in which mixture constituents have a molar mass below 350 g mol−1. As such, we demonstrate the validity of the model in quantifying mixture viscosity for aqueous binary mixtures (glycerol, citric acid, sucrose, and trehalose), aqueous multicomponent mixtures (citric acid + sucrose and a mixture of nine dicarboxylic acids), and aqueous SOA surrogate mixtures derived from the oxidation of α-pinene, toluene, or isoprene. We also use the model to assess the expected change in SOA particle viscosity during idealized adiabatic air parcel transport from the surface to higher altitudes within the troposphere. This work demonstrates the capability and flexibility of our model in predicting the viscosity for organic mixtures of varying degrees of complexity and its applicability for modelling SOA viscosity over a wide range of temperatures and relative humidities.
Taking a Breath of the Wild: are geoscientists more effective than non-geoscientists in determining whether video game world landscapes are realistic?
Authors: Hut Rolf , Albers Casper , Illingworth Sam , Skinner Chris
Published: August 2019

Abstract. From the wilderness of Hyrule, the continent of Tamriel, and the geographies of Middle Earth, players of video games are exposed to wondrous, fantastic, but ultimately fake, landscapes. Given the time people may spend in these worlds compared to the time they spend being trained in geoscience, we wondered whether expert geoscientists would differ from non-geoscientists in whether they judge the landscapes in these video games to be “realistic”. Since video games present a great opportunity for tangential learning, it would be a missed opportunity if it turns out that features obviously fake to geoscientists are perceived as plausible by non-geoscientists. To satisfy our curiosity and answer this question, we conducted a survey where we asked people to judge both photos from real landscapes as well as screenshots from the recent The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild video game on how likely they thought the features in the picture were to exist in the real world. Since game world screenshots are easily identified based on their rendered, pixelated nature, we pre-processed all pictures with an artistic “Van Gogh” filter that removed the rendered nature but retained the dominant landscape features. We found that there is a small but significant difference between geoscientists and non-geoscientists, with geoscientists being slightly better at judging which pictures are from the real world versus from the video game world. While significant, the effect is small enough to conclude that fantastical worlds in video games can be used for tangential learning on geoscientific subjects.
JULES-BE: representation of bioenergy crops and harvesting in the Joint UK Land Environment Simulator vn5.1
Authors: Littleton Emma W. , Harper Anna B. , Vaughan Naomi E. , Oliver Rebecca J. , Duran-Rojas Maria Carolina , Lenton Timothy M.
Published: August 2019

Abstract. We describe developments to a land surface model, allowing for flexible user-prescribed harvest regimes of various perennial bioenergy crops or natural vegetation types. Our aim is to integrate the most useful aspects of dedicated bioenergy models into dynamic global vegetation models, in order that assessment of bioenergy options can benefit from state-of-the-art Earth system modelling. A new plant functional type (PFT) representing Miscanthus is also presented. The Miscanthus PFT fits well with growth parameters observed at a site in Lincolnshire, UK; however, global observed yields of Miscanthus are far more variable than is captured by the model, suggesting missing model components that influence growth and yields. Global expansion of bioenergy crop areas under a 2 °C emissions scenario and balanced greenhouse gas mitigation strategy from the IMAGE integrated assessment model (RCP2.6-SSP2) achieves a mean yield of 4.3 billion tonnes dry matter per year over 2040–2099, around 30 % higher than the biomass availability projected by IMAGE. In addition to perennial grasses, JULES-BE can also be used to represent short-rotation coppicing; residue harvesting from cropland or forestry; and rotation forestry.
A novel regional irrigation water productivity model for
complex cropping patterns in arid regions coupling soil
water and salinity dynamics, irrigation and drainage, and
shallow groundwater movement
Authors: Xue Jingyuan , Huo Zailin , White Ian , Kisekka Isaya , Sheng Zhuping , Wang Shuai , Wang Chaozi , Huang Guanhua , Xu Xu
Published: August 2019

Abstract. The temporal and spatial distribution of regional irrigation water productivity (RIWP) is crucial for making agricultural related decisions, especially in arid irrigated areas with complex cropping patterns. Thus, we developed a new RIWP model for an irrigated agricultural area with complex cropping patterns. The model couples the irrigation and drainage driven soil water and salinity dynamics and shallow groundwater movement, to quantify the temporal and spatial distributions of the target hydrological and biophysical variables. We divided the study area into 1 km×1 km hydrological response units (HRUs). In each HRU, we considered four land-use types: sunflower fields, wheat fields, maize fields and uncultivated lands. And we coupled the regional soil hydrological processes and groundwater flow by taking a weighted average of the water exchange between unsaturated soil and groundwater under different land-use types. The RIWP model was calibrated and validated using eight years of hydrological variables obtained from regional observation sites in a typical arid irrigation area of North China, Hetao Irrigation District. The model reasonably well simulated soil moisture and salinity, groundwater table depths, salinity, and discharge, and regional evapotranspiration. Sensitivity analysis indicates that soil evaporation coefficient and specific yield are the key parameters for RIWP simulation. The results showed that, from 2006 to 2013, RIWP decreased from maize to sunflower to wheat. It was found that the maximum RIWP can be reached when groundwater table depth is in the range of 2 m to 4 m, regardless of irrigation water depths. This implies the importance of groundwater table control on RIWP. Overall, our distributed RIWP model can effectively simulate the temporal and spatial distribution of RIWP and provide critical water allocation suggestions for decision makers.
Mediterranean Specific Climate Classification and Future Evolution
Under RCP Scenarios
Authors: Allam Antoine , Moussa Roger , Najem Wajdi , Bocquillon Claude
Published: August 2019

Abstract. The Mediterranean is one of the most sensitive regions to anthropogenic and climatic changes mostly affecting its water resources and related practices. With multiple studies raising serious concerns of climate shifts and aridity expansion in the region, this one aims to establish a new high resolution classification for hydrology purposes based on Mediterranean specific climate indices. This classification is useful in following up hydrological (water resources management, floods, droughts, etc.), and ecohydrological applications such as Mediterranean agriculture like olive cultivation and other environmental practices. The proposed approach includes the use of classic climatic indices and the definition of new climatic indices mainly precipitation seasonality index Is or evapotranspiration threshold SPET both in line with river flow regimes, a Principal Component Analysis to reduce the number of indices, K-Means classification to distribute them into classes and finally the construction of a decision tree based on the distances to classes kernels to reproduce the classification without having to repeat the whole process. The classification was set and validated by WorldClim-2 at 1-km high resolution gridded data for the 1970–2000 baseline period and 144 stations data over 30 to 120 years, both at monthly time steps. Climatic classes coincided with a geographical distribution in the Mediterranean ranging from the most seasonal and dry class in the south to the least seasonal and most humid class in the North, showing up the climatic continuity from one place to another and enhancing the visibility of change trends. The MED-CORDEX ALADIN historical and projected data at 12-km resolution simulated under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios for the 2070–2100 period served to assess the climate change impact on this classification by superimposing the projected changes on the baseline high resolution classification. Both RCP scenarios showed a 7 % to 9 % increase of the average seasonality index Is and 3 % to 20 % increase of the average aridity index IArid for the least seasonal classes. These classes located to the north are slowly evolving towards moderate coastal classes which might affect hydrologic regimes due to shorter humid seasons and earlier snowmelts. This kind of classification might be reproduced at the global scale, using same or other climatic indices specific for each region highlighting their physiographic characteristics and hydrological response.
HESS Opinions: The Myth of Groundwater Sustainability in Asia
Authors: Schwartz Franklin W. , Liu Ganming , Yu Zhongbo
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Across the arid regions of water-stressed countries of Asia, groundwater production for irrigated agriculture has led to water level declines that continue to worsen. For India, China, Pakistan, Iran and others, it is unrealistic to expect groundwater sustainability in a technical sense to emerge. With business as usual, groundwater-related problems receive insufficient attention, a situation referred to as an accelerating and invisible groundwater crisis (Biswas et al., 2017). Another obstacle to sustainability comes from trying to manage something you do not understand. With sustainable management, there are significant burdens in needed technical and socioeconomic knowhow, in collecting necessary data, and in implementing advanced technologies. A pragmatic research agenda for groundwater sustainability should recognize that a common threat to long-term sustainability could occur not just from over-pumping but widespread groundwater contamination. If groundwater sustainability is truly unachievable, then research is needed in facilitating adaption to the worst outcomes (Siegel et al., 2019). In hoping for the best outcomes, it is prudent to plan for the worst.
Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden
2018
Authors: Krikken Folmer , Lehner Flavio , Haustein Karsten , Drobyshev Igor , van Oldenborgh Geert Jan
Published: August 2019

Abstract. In this study we analyse the role of climate change in the forest fires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from a meteorological perspective. This is done by studying the Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI) based on sub-daily data, both in reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA5, JMA55 and MERRA2) and three large ensemble climate models (EC-Earth, W@H and CESM) simulations. The FWI based on reanalysis correlates well with observed area burned in summer (r = 0.6 to 0.8). We find that the maximum forest fire risk in July 2018 had return times of ∼ 24 years for Southern and Northern Sweden. Further, we find a negative trend of the FWI for Southern Sweden over the 1979 to 2017 time period, yielding a decreasing risk of such an event solely based on reanalysis data. However, given the short observational record, large uncertainty between the reanalysis products and large natural variability of the FWI we cannot draw robust conclusions from reanalysis data. The 3 large-ensembles with climate models on the other hand point to a roughly 1.1 times increased risk for such events in the current climate relative to pre-industrial climate. For a future climate (2C warming) we find a roughly 2 times increased risk for such events relative to pre-industrial climate. The increased fire weather risk is mainly attributed to the increase in temperature. The other main factor, precipitation during summer months, is projected to increase for Northern Sweden, and decrease for Southern Sweden. We however do not find a clear change of prolonged dry periods in summer months that could explain the increased fire weather risk. In summary, we find a small but positive role of global warming up to now in the 2018 forest fires in Sweden, but a more robust increase in the risk for such events in the future.
High-resolution underwater laser spectrometer sensing provides new insights into methane distribution at an Arctic seepage site
Authors: Jansson Pär , Triest Jack , Grilli Roberto , Ferré Bénédicte , Silyakova Anna , Mienert Jürgen , Chappellaz Jérôme
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Methane (CH4) in marine sediments has the potential
to contribute to changes in the ocean and climate system. Physical and
biochemical processes that are difficult to quantify with current standard
methods such as acoustic surveys and discrete sampling govern the
distribution of dissolved CH4 in oceans and lakes. Detailed
observations of aquatic CH4 concentrations are required for a better understanding of CH4 dynamics in the water column, how it can affect lake and ocean acidification, the chemosynthetic ecosystem, and mixing ratios of atmospheric climate gases. Here we present pioneering
high-resolution in situ measurements of dissolved CH4 throughout the water column over a 400 m deep CH4 seepage area at the continental slope west of Svalbard. A new fast-response underwater membrane-inlet laser spectrometer sensor demonstrates technological advances and breakthroughs for ocean measurements. We reveal decametre-scale variations in dissolved CH4 concentrations over the CH4 seepage zone. Previous studies could not resolve such heterogeneity in the area, assumed a smoother distribution, and therefore lacked both details on and insights into ongoing processes. We show good repeatability of the instrument measurements, which are also in agreement with discrete sampling. New numerical models, based on acoustically evidenced free gas emissions from the seafloor, support the observed heterogeneity and CH4 inventory. We identified sources of CH4, undetectable with echo sounder, and rapid diffusion of dissolved CH4 away from the sources. Results from the continuous ocean laser-spectrometer measurements, supported by modelling, improve our
understanding of CH4 fluxes and related physical processes over Arctic CH4 degassing regions.
RADAR-Derived Precipitation Climatology for Wind Turbine Blade
Leading Edge Erosion
Authors: Letson Frederick , Barthelmie Rebecca J. , Pryor Sara C.
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) is a potentially significant source of revenue loss for windfarm operators. Thus, it is important to advance understanding of the underlying causes, to generate geospatial estimates of erosion potential to provide guidance in pre-deployment planning and ultimately to advance methods to mitigate this effect and extend blade lifetimes. This study focusses on the second issue and presents a novel approach to characterizing the erosion potential across the contiguous USA based solely on publicly available data products from the National Weather Service dual-polarization RADAR. The approach is described in detail and illustrated using six locations distributed across parts of the USA that have substantial wind turbine deployments. Results from these locations demonstrate the high spatial variability in precipitation-induced erosion potential, illustrate the importance of low probability high impact events to cumulative annual total kinetic energy transfer and emphasize the importance of hail as a damage vector.
Lidar estimation of rotor-effective wind speed – an experimental comparison
Authors: Held Dominique P. , Mann Jakob
Published: August 2019

Abstract. Lidar systems have the potential of alleviating structural loads on wind turbines by providing a preview of the incoming wind field to the control system. For a collective pitch controller, the important quantity of interest is the rotor-effective wind speed (REWS).
In this study, we present a model of the coherence between the REWS and its estimate from continuous-wave nacelle-mounted lidar systems. The model uses the spectral tensor definition of the Mann model.
Model results were compared to field data gathered from a two- and four-beam nacelle lidar mounted on a wind turbine. The comparison shows close agreement for the coherence, and the data fit better to the proposed model than to a model based on the Kaimal turbulence model, which underestimates the coherence. Inflow conditions with larger length scales led to a higher coherence between REWS and lidar estimates than inflow turbulence of smaller length scale. When comparing the two lidar systems, it was shown that the four-beam lidar is able to resolve small turbulent structures with a higher degree of coherence. Further, the advection speed by which the turbulent structures are transported from measurement to rotor plane can be estimated by 10 min averages of the lidar estimation of REWS. The presented model can be used as a computationally efficient tool to optimize the position of the lidar focus points in order to maximize the coherence.
Understanding the effects of individual attitudes and residential neighborhood types on university commuters’ bicycling decisions
Authors: Park Yujin , Akar Gulsah
Published: August 2019

This study investigates the effects of individual perceptions and residential neighborhoods on university commuters’ bicycling decisions using the 2015 Ohio State University Travel Pattern Survey data. We generate eight attitudinal/perceptual components based on the 26 bicycling-related questions that capture detailed perceptions of commuters toward bicycling, neighborhood environments, and residential location choice. We create distinct neighborhood typologies combining land use and socioeconomic characteristics, including population, employment, housing and intersection densities, housing types, median age of housing stock, and median household income. Probit regression models are estimated to assess the effects of sociodemographic, attitudinal/perceptual components and neighborhood types while accounting for the residential self-selection effect. Results show that people residing in different neighborhood types reveal significant attitudinal differences in terms of their conditional willingness to bicycle, and evaluation of bicycle friendliness of neighborhoods and routes. We find that bicyclists are more likely to live in neighborhoods that they perceive as having good-quality for bicycling in terms of access to bicycle facilities and lower traffic levels. Results also show the significant association of neighborhood types with bicycle commuting outcomes. People from medium-density, mixed-use, and suburban single-family neighborhoods are less likely to commute by bicycle as compared to those from high-density, mixed-use neighborhoods.
The impacts of light rail on residential property values in a non-zoning city: A new test on the Houston METRORail transit line
Authors: Pan Qisheng
Published: August 2019

The impacts of rail transit system on residential property values have been examined for many metropolitan areas in the U.S. But there are few studies on the effects of light rail in a non-zoning city. As the rail transit in the largest non-zoning city, Houston’s light rail transit line, or the so-called METRORail, has not received much attention from the planning research society since it opened to the public in 2004. A previous study by the author utilized 2007 household data to analyze the impacts of Houston’s METRORail line and found the net effects of the rail transit line change significantly at different distances from the rail stations. One limitation of that study was that the physical environment and neighborhood characteristics of the station areas may not have had notable changes over a relatively short time span, i.e., three years after the opening of the light rail. This study employs 2010 InfoUSA household data to re-examine the effects of Houston’s METRORail line. Similar to the previous studies, the author adopts a traditional ordinary linear regression (OLS) to investigate the contribution of a set of variables representing the physical, neighborhood, and accessibility characteristics of properties, and also employs a multi-level regression model (MLR) to examine the hierarchical structures of spatial data explicitly. In addition, this study tests the spatial autocorrelation in the modeling process and analyzes its effects on the results. The modeling results suggest that the METRORail line has had significant net positive effects on residential property values. The MLS model captures the difference of these effects with more spatial details. The spatial regression model improves model fit, but spatial autocorrelation is not completely eliminated.
A bikeshare station area typology to forecast the station-level ridership of system expansion
Authors: Gehrke Steven R. , Welch Timothy F.
Published: August 2019

The continuous introduction and expansion of docked bikeshare systems with publicly available origin-destination data have opened exciting avenues for bikeshare research. In response, a flux of recent studies has examined the sociodemographic determinants and safety or natural environment deterrents of system ridership. An increasing abundance of disaggregate spatial data has also spurred recent calls for research aimed at extending the utility of these contextual data to model bikeshare demand and trip patterns. As planners and operators seek to expand bikeshare services into underserved areas, a need exists to provide a data-driven understanding of the spatial dynamics of bikeshare use. This study of the Washington, DC, metro region’s Capital Bikeshare (CaBi) program answers this call by performing a latent class cluster analysis to identify five bikeshare station area types based on variation in a set of land development pattern, urban design, and transportation infrastructure features. This typology is integrated into a planning application exploring the potential for system expansion into nearby jurisdictions and forecasting the associated trip-making potential between existing and proposed station locations.
Customer Satisfaction as Intervening Between Use Automatic Teller Machine (ATM), Internet Banking and Quality of Loyalty (Case in Indonesia)
Authors: - Indrayani , Wibisono Chablullah , Aritra Sanni , Muda Iskandar
Published: August 2019

This research aims to determine the effect of customer satisfaction as an intervening variable between utilization of Automatic Teller Machine (ATM) variable, Internet Banking variable and service quality variable to variable customer loyalty at PT. Bank Mandiri Tbk in Batam city, Indonesia. This research is collecting the data in the form of primary and secondary data. Collecting the data in this study using questionnaires in the form of respondents Involved in this research were 187 customers. The number is obtained by using the formula Slovin with random sampling. The collected the data were processed and Analyzed by using SPSS and SEM for normality, regression coefficient, and determination. From the result show that the variable utilization ATM, Internet Banking and service quality affect to customer satisfaction has 83%. That is the service quality variables of the most dominant influence on customer satisfaction and customer loyalty.