bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Estimating the National High School Dropout Rate
Authors: Kominski Robert
Published: March 2007

Recent interest has focused on the high school dropout rate as one indicator of the national education picture. Empirical estimates of this “rate” vary considerably, because these estimates are poorly defined. This article reviews some of the current measures and presents a new measure of the high school dropout rate—the proportion of high school students who drop out in a defined period of time (1 year). The estimates show that the national yearly high school dropout rate was about the same in 1985 as it was in 1968. Improvement has occurred, however, since 1968 for specific racial groups as well as for some grade levels.
The new census question about ancestry: What did it tell us?
Authors: Farley Reynolds
Published: March 2007

In addition to specific inquiries about race and Spanish origin, the censuses of 1980 and 1990 included an open-ended question about ancestry, which replaced the question about parents’ place of birth that had been used since 1870. This paper examines findings from the new ancestry question from the perspective of measuring ethnicity. The question adds little information about Hispanics, racial minorities, or recent immigrants, who can be identified readily on the basis of other census inquiries. The ancestry question allows us to characterize the descendants of European immigrants, but because of ethnic intermarriage, the numerous generations that separate present respondents from their forebears, and the apparent unimportance of ancestry to many whites of European origin, responses appear quite inconsistent. In regard to these groups, we may now be in an era of optional ethnicity, in which no simple census question will distinguish those who identify strongly with a specific European group from those who report symbolic or imagined ethnicity.
Movement toward stability as a fundamental principle of population dynamics
Authors: Schoen Robert , Kim Young J.
Published: March 2007

Although convergence to stability is typically a complex and irregular process, the Kullback distance provides a measure that moves consistently to 0 as a population becomes stable. The roots of the Kullback distance are in information theory. but it is a meaningful demographic quantity. It reflects a population’s log momentum, or the amount of growth built into a population’s nonstable age distribution. The rate at which the Kullback distance moves toward 0 is neither constant nor monotonic. At any point in time, however, it decreases by the covariance between a population’s age-specific growth rates and its log momentum. Although the present findings are couched in terms of movement toward stability, they are generally applicable because they relate to the behavior of any population at any instant. It is a fundamental principle of population dynamics that a population is always moving toward the stable population implied by its prevailing fertility and mortality rates, and that the extent of its movement is determined by the covariance between its age-specific growth and its log momentum.
Fertility decline in Taiwan: A study using parity progression ratios
Authors: Feeney Griffith
Published: March 2007

Taiwan’s decline in fertility is studied by using period parity progression ratios. Levels of marriage and motherhood are found to have been high and essentially constant though the late 1980s, suggesting that the decline has been due almost entirely to declines in second and higher order-births. Families with three or more children play an important role in maintaining the current level of fertility. The level of fertility would be even lower without these families. They contributed more than one-half child per woman to the total fertility rate during most of the 1980s. Total fertility rates computed from the period parity progression ratios indicate a substantially higher level of fertility than the conventional total fertility rate; they remained above or at replacement level through 1988. A formal demographic analysis suggests that the conventional total fertility rate has been depressed by shifts in age at childbearing.
Family structure and dependency: Early transitions to female household headship
Authors: McLanahan Sara S.
Published: March 2007

This article looks at the intergenerational effects of family structure on family formation and economic dependency. Three explanations are examined: thee conomic-deprivation, socialization, and family-stress hypotheses. Daughters living in single parent families at some point during adolescence are more likely to be come household heads and to go on welfare than offspring of two-parent families. Differences in the incomes of one- and two-parent families can account for up to 25 percent of the difference in offspring behaviors. None of the hypotheses, however, provides a complete explanation of family structure effects. The analysis is based on data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and uses event-history analysis to estimate transitions into female headship and economic dependence.
Undocumented Mexican immigrants and the earnings of other workers in the United States
Authors: Bean Frank D. , Lowell B. Lindsay , Taylor Lowell J.
Published: March 2007

This article examines the effects of undocumented Mexican immigrants on the earnings of other workers in geographical labor markets in the Southwest. The number of undocumented Mexicans included in the 1980 census in southwestern SMSAs is estimated. We then estimate the parameters of three specifications of a generalized Leontief production function with various demographic groups as substitutable factors. The statistically significant effects of undocumented Mexicans on the earnings of other groups are positive, but of slight magnitude. Legal immigrants’ effects on native white earnings, however, are small and negative. The results are consistent with the possibility that undocumented Mexican immigrants’ jobs complement those of other workers. The implications for public policy concerns about the effects of illegal Mexican immigration are discussed.
Components of change in migration and destination-propensity rates for metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas: 1935–1980
Authors: Wilson Franklin D.
Published: March 2007

This article focuses on components of change in out-migration and destination-propensity rates of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. The results indicate that changes in subgroup-specific rates were the driving force behind the changing patterns between and within these two areas. Composition effects played a secondary role, mainly counteracting the negative impact of changing rates. Although the rate of change in out-migration from metropolitan areas has been reduced and out-migration from nonmetropolitan areas declined during the most recent period, the propensity to select metropolitan areas increased over the period studied. Finally, rate-specific changes vary by age and education, indicating a change in migration’s impact on population composition at origin and destination.
The replacement effect and comparisons of per capita income across countries: A short note
Authors: Mason Andrew
Published: March 2007

This article is intended to clarify two aspects of Leibenstein’s replacement effect that have not been adequately addressed in print. First, formal analysis of the replacement effect demonstrates that it is not determined by the quality of entering and departing workers alone but, rather, by the entire age schedule of labor quality. Second, a simple model is used to demonstrate the absence of welfare implications associated with the replacement effect and to quantify the magnitude of the replacement effect.
Measuring components of family planning program effort
Authors: Entwisle Barbara
Published: March 2007

The measures of family planning program effort developed by Lapham and Mauldin have played a key role in family planning program analysis, but surprisingly little is known about them. This article investigates the measurement of family planning program effort based on data reflecting conditions circa 1982 in 100 developing countries. Using confirmatory factor analytic techniques, it tests some hypotheses implicit in the work of Mauldin and Lapham. Since the data do not fully support these hypotheses, an alternative conceptualization is proposed that consists of eight rather than four components. The discussion focuses on the expanded set of components and includes an assessment of the empirical indicators associated with them.
U.S. births and limit cycle Models
Authors: Wachter Kenneth W. , Lee Ronald D.
Published: March 2007

Lee’s (1974) formal demographic feedback models summarize the implications for births and age-structure of neo-Malthusian theories of baby booms such as those of Easterlin. For some parameter values, such models imply sustained cycles, so-called “limit cycles,” in births. Frauenthal and Swick recently reestimated a continuous-age version of Lee’s basic cohort model with U.S. series and, contrary to Lee’s original findings, concluded that “limit cycles oscillations have been occurring in U.S. births.” This article disputes their conclusion, ascribing it to an inconsistency in detrending procedures. Furthermore, it corrects Lee’s original conclusion by showing that his alternative period labor-force feedback model, estimated from U.S. series, leads to cycles of implausibly long period. This article thus reopens the question of whether any feedback model could account for the observed cycles in U.S. births.
Postcensal estimates of household income distributions
Authors: Fonseca Lois , Tayman Jeff
Published: March 2007

This article develops and evaluates a method for deriving postcensal estimates of household income distributions for counties. A modified lognormal probability curve is used as a model of income distribution. The function is closely related to the classical lognormal model, but it contains a nonlinear component in its derivation. Simulated postcensal estimates of household income distributions are compared with 1980 census data for the counties in California. The results indicate that the modified lognormal curve approximates observed income distributions well and produces reliable postcensal estimates for areas with a wide variety of median income levels and numbers of households.
Work shifts of full-time dual-earner couples: Patterns and contrasts by sex of spouse
Authors: Presser Harriet B.
Published: March 2007

Work shifts of full-time dual-earner couples are analyzed with data from the May 1980 U.S. Current Population Survey. Over 20 percent of husbands and about 12 percent of wives work other than a regular day shift. Variations in shift work status by sex of spouse are examined according to job, race, and life-cycle characteristics. A multivariate analysis indicates that a different composite offactors affects the shift work status of husbands and wives. Given the wide variation in the prevalence of non-day employment within major groups and the sex segregation of the labor force, we look at detailed occupations and industries to the extent possible.
Noncustodial Fathers’ Ability to Pay Child Support
Authors: Garfinkel Irwin , Oellerich Donald
Published: March 2007

This article explores the extent to which noncustodial fathers can pay child support by estimating the income of noncustodial fathers and coupling these estimates with simulations of alternative normative standards for how much absent parents should be expected to contribute to the costs of rearing their children. The study indicates that the amount that is currently paid in child support ($6.8 billion in 1983) is far below the amount that should be paid under the various standards—from $24 billion to $29 billion.
Unmarried Motherhood: Recent Trends, Composition, and Black–White Differences
Authors: Bumpass Larry , McLanahan Sara
Published: March 2007

The National Survey of Family Growth (1982) is used to examine the extent to which racial differences in premarital birth rates can be explained by differences in parents’ socioeconomic status, family structure, and residential characteristics. The findings document a large diversity in premarital births within both populations. Black women from high-risk backgrounds are three times more likely to have a premarital birth than black women from low-risk backgrounds. Racial differences in premarital births arise because (1) black women are more likely to come from high-risk backgrounds and (2) black women from low-risk backgrounds are more likely to have a premarital birth than white women with similar characteristics. There are similar rates of premarital births by race among persons from high-risk backgrounds.
The Income–Fertility Relationship: Effect of the Net Price of a Child
Authors: Borg Mary O’Malley
Published: March 2007

This article examines the relationship between income and completed family size in empirical fertility models. The relationship, which is hypothesized to be positive, often is negative in empirical studies. This perverse result is thought to occur because of the many correlations between income and other factors that affect fertility. In this research, these other factors—such as the net price of a child, the opportunity cost of the wife’s time, and supply factors—are statistically controlled, and the income effect is positive and significant. When the net price of a child is not controlled, however, the income effect becomes negative and significant.
Stability and Change in an Urban Homeless Population
Authors: Lee Barrett A.
Published: March 2007

Few studies have produced the over-time observational data needed to draw valid conclusions about changes in urban homeless populations during the 1980s. One place for which such data exist is Nashville, Tennessee. An ongoing series of enumerations lends little support to Nashvillians’ perception that the number of homeless in their city is growing rapidly. Enumeration results also (1) contradict expectations regarding the rise of “new homeless” groups and (2) show two types of spatial redistribution —from indoor to outdoor and core to peripheral locations—to be under way. The applicability of the enumeration methodology to other communities is discussed, as are the discrepancies between purported and measured demographic changes in homelessness.
Changes in the retirement process among older men in the United States: 1972–1980
Authors: Hayward Mark D. , Grady William R. , McLaughlin Steven D.
Published: March 2007

Recent changes in older men’s retirement patterns are investigated for the United States. The results show that labor force incumbents, particularly those in secondary occupations, experienced increases in the volume of both retirement and reentry to the labor force. In addition, although working life expectancy remained relatively stable across occupations, men in secondary occupations spent increasingly greater portions of their work lives in postretirement jobs. Finally, large increases in nonworking life expectancy occurred because of substantial increases in life expectancy. In several occupations, however, declines in working life expectancy were major contributors to increases in nonworking life expectancy.
Occupational careers and mortality of elderly men
Authors: Moore David E. , Hayward Mark D.
Published: March 2007

This article presents findings from an analysis of occupational differentials in mortality among a cohort of males aged 55 years and older in the United States for the period 1966–1983. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Men, we construct event histories for 3,080 respondents who reach the exact age of 55. The dynamics that characterize socioeconomic differentials in mortality are analyzed by evaluating the differential effects of occupation over the career cycle. Maximum likelihood estimates of hazard-model parameters show that the mortality of current or last occupation differssubstantially from that of longest occupation, controlling for education, income, health status, and other sociodemographic factors. In particular, the rate of mortality is reduced by the substantive complexity of the longest occupation while social skills and physical and environmental demands of the latest occupation lower mortality.
Estimating transition probabilities of age misstatement
Authors: Bhat P. N. Mari
Published: March 2007

This article outlines a method of estimating probabilities of gross transfers from one age to another due to misreporting of age. An essential ingredient in the computation is the information on the true age structure of the population, which may be estimated by using generalized stable population relationships. The method consists essentially of iteratively adjusting rows and columns of an initial guess matrix so that the application of the resultant transition matrix to the true age distribution produces the recorded age distribution. The initial guess matrix can be either empirically based or theoretically derived. The method is illustrated by using data on India, 1971–1981. The application reveals that in India, although the tendency to exaggerate age is strong at adult ages, the bias does not increase appreciably at older ages, as is commonly believed.
Fertility desires and fertility: Hers, his, and theirs
Authors: Thomson Elizabeth , McDonald Elaine , Bumpass Larry L.
Published: March 2007

The relationship between desired and achieved fertility may be misspecified by excluding husbands’ fertility desires or by confounding effects of shared desires with the resolution of conflicting desires. Using couple data from the classic Princeton Fertility Surveys, we find relatively large husband effects on fertility outcomes as well as unique effects of spousal disagreement. Wives and husbands were equally likely to achieve fertility desires, and disagreeing couples experienced fertility rates midway between couples who wanted the same smaller or larger number of children. These conditions do not hold, however, when we include willingness to delay births for economic mobility as part of the measure of fertility desires. Among couples who both wanted a third child, only husbands’ willingness to delay births had significant negative effects on birth rates.
Living arrangements and the transition to adulthood
Authors: Goldscheider Frances Kobrin , DaVanzo Julie
Published: March 2007

The sharp decline with age in the percent of young adults who live with their parents is usually attributed to other concurrent life-cycle changes in the “transition to adulthood.” We investigate this presumption using data tracking high school seniors seven years after graduation. Although marriage and military service strongly reduce residential dependence on parents, other life-cycle changes such as employment and parenthood are only weakly associated with living arrangements and often affect returning home more than leaving. “Leaving home” is often independent of other transition events and should be studied directly to understand recent patterns of family change.
Neighborhood revitalization and racial change: The case of Washington, D.C.
Authors: Lee Barrett A. , Spain Daphne , Umberson Debra J.
Published: March 2007

Using 1970 and 1980 census block data for Washington, D.C., we test several hypotheses about the racial residential consequences of neighborhood revitalization. Areas located in the revitalizing core of the city have a) become whiter in both absolute and proportional terms, consistent with the displacement hypothesis, and b) experienced substantial though difficult to interpret shifts in segregation. The types of racial changes occurring in the core are not apparent elsewhere in Washington, and tract data for 1940–1980 show the core changes to be temporally as well as spatially specific. Because different racial residential trends have accompanied revitalization in other cities, we treat Washington as an exceptional case that helps specify the conditions under which conventional wisdom about neighborhood change is least applicable.
Calculation of age-specific fertility schedules from tabulations of parity in two censuses
Authors: Coale Ansley J. , John A. Meredith , Richards Toni
Published: March 2007

The mathematics of stable populations recently has been generalized to cover populations with time-varying fertility and mortality by a modification incorporating the sum of age-varying growth rates in place of the fixed growth rate of a stable population. Equations that characterize nonstable populations apply to any cohort-like phenomenon with a measurable property that cumulates gains or losses through time. In particular, the equations fit the relation between a population’s average parity at a given age and age-specific fertility rates previously experienced at lower ages. Techniques devised to derive an intercensal life table from single-year age distributions in two censuses are adapted to estimate accurate intercensal fertility schedules from distributions of parity by age of woman in two censuses. Birth-order specific fertility schedules are also estimated.
Practical aspects on the estimation of the parameters in Coale’s model for marital fertility
Authors: Broström Göran
Published: March 2007

This paper demonstrates the estimation of the parameters in the Coale model for marital fertility by the maximum likelihood method, under the assumption of a simple Poisson process model. The necessary calculations are easily performed in the statistical computer program package GLIM, and the necessary commands are noted. Without access to GLIM, or any equivalent, it is still possible to fit the model approximately by the use of any weighted finear regression program. In both cases, goodness of fit tests are available.
Hypersegregation in U.S. Metropolitan Areas: Black and Hispanic Segregation Along Five Dimensions
Authors: Massey Douglas S. , Denton Nancy A.
Published: March 2007

Residential segregation has traditionally been measured by using the index of dissimilarity and, more recently, the P* exposure index. These indices, however, measure only two of five potential dimensions of segregation and, by themselves, understate the degree of black segregation in U.S. society. Compared with Hispanics, not only are blacks more segregated on any single dimension of residential segregation, they are also likely to be segregated on all five dimensions simultaneously, which never occurs for Hispanics. Moreover, in a significant subset of large urban areas, blacks experience extreme segregation on all dimensions, a pattern we call hypersegregation. This finding is upheld and reinforced by a multivariate analysis. We conclude that blacks occupy a unique and distinctly disadvantaged position in the U.S. urban environment.
A formal theory for male-preferring stopping rules of childbearing: sex differences in birth order and in the number of siblings
Authors: Yamaguchi Kazuo
Published: March 2007

Through mathematical deductions, this article shows certain macro-demographic consequences of individually employed male-preferring stopping rules in childbearing. It is shown that male-preferring stopping rules generate differences between boys and girls in birth order and in the number of siblings. Two situations are considered regarding the latent probability of having a boy: population homogeneity and population heterogeneity. The sex difference in the number of siblings exists even under population homogeneity, and the difference remains constant when each couple employs a distinct alternative rule. On the other hand, the sex difference in the birth order exists only under population heterogeneity. Substantive implications of these findings are discussed.
Demographic consequences of the 1984–1985 Ethiopian famine
Authors: Kidane Asmerom
Published: March 2007

This article analyzes demographic responses to the 1984–1985 Ethiopian famine and compares them with Bongaarts and Cain’s (1982) hypothesized responses. After briefly describing the data collection, I estimate the age distribution and the age-specific mortality and fertility rates of Ethiopian famine victims in a resettlement area and compare these with mortality estimates for the 1972–1973 Bangladesh famine and with fertility estimates from the 1981 Ethiopian demographic survey. The results show that the mortality rate among Ethiopian famine victims was about seven times higher than the rate among the Bangladesh victims and that the Ethiopian famine-related mortality was general and not a function of household socioeconomic variables. The data also show a 26 percent lower total fertility rate among famine victims.
Infant mortality decline in Malaysia, 1946–1975: The roles of changes in variables and changes in the structure of relationships
Authors: DaVanzo Julie , Habicht Jean-Pierre
Published: March 2007

Individual-level retrospective data from the Malaysian Family Life Survey are used to examine why the infant mortality rate (IMR) has declined rapidly in Malaysia since World War II. Substantial increases in mothers’ education and improvements in water and sanitation have contributed. However, breastfeeding reductions have kept the IMR from declining as rapidly as it would have otherwise. The detrimental effects of reduced breastfeeding more than offset the beneficial effects of water and sanitation improvements. The majority of the IMR decline, however, is not explained by changes in the variables considered here, or in their relationships with infant mortality.
The recent rise in malay fertility: A new trend or a temporary lull in a fertility transition?
Authors: Hirschman Charles
Published: March 2007

Period fertility rates show a recent rise in the fertility of the Malay population of Peninsular Malaysia that became evident in the late 1970s, after more than fifteen years of slow but steady declines. Detailed analysis of age-parity-specific fertility rates suggests that the recent rise is largely due to a “making up” of lower order births (first, second, and third) that had been postponed by a rapid increase in age at marriage. The period trend in higher order births and cohort trends of cumulative fertility from census data point to a continued reduction in completed Malay fertility. Regional analysis shows several states on the east coast with persistent high fertility, although the revolution in marital postponement is national in scope.
Child support awards: Differentials and trends by race and marital status
Authors: Beller Andrea H. , Graham John W.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines differentials in the award of child support by race and marital status and evaluates the impact of the child support enforcement program, begun in 1975, on child support awards. According to data from the 1979 and 1982 March/ April Match Files of the Current Population Survey, never-married mothers are significantly less likely than ever-married mothers to have a child support award; which do, however, cannot readily be explained by our model. Ever-disrupted black marriages resulted in awards considerably less frequently than nonblack marriages, although the enforcement program has had a positive effect.
A generalization of life expectancy which incorporates the age distribution of the population and its use in the measurement of the impact of mortality reduction
Authors: Newman Stephen C.
Published: March 2007

Two new families of indices measuring the gain in life expectancy resulting from reduction in mortality are introduced: the first looks at the impact of cause of death reduction from the perspective of the entire population; the second, at that segment of the population due to die of the cause. Special cases include both well-established measures and extensions that incorporate the age distribution of the population. A further generalization is introduced with the consideration of life expectancies that only give weight to years of life up to age 70. A number of inequalities are derived that relate cause-deleted life expectancies to their cause-reduced counterparts.
A comment on glenn Firebaugh’s “population density and fertility”
Authors: Jensen Eric
Published: March 2007

Conclusion

Firebaugh has attempted to test an interesting, if counterintuitive, theory. I have argued that his empirical model is incompletely specified, and that one should reserve judgement on his hypothesis until a better means of testing it can be developed. In particular, the use of ratio variables and pooled data create substantial statistical problems.f The simultaneous responses of the CBR and village population size to outside-of-model variation yield an inflated estimate of the effect of population density on fertility.
Catholicism and marriage in the united states
Authors: Sander William
Published: March 2007

This study examines the effects of a Catholic background on age at first marriage, the odds of never marrying, and the odds of ever divorcing. Estimates using Catholic upbringing are compared with estimates using Catholic at the time of the survey. A case is made that if the latter measure of Catholicism is used, serious selection bias problems occur in some cases because this measure excludes defectors and includes converts. Further, it is shown that a Catholic upbringing generally has no effect on men’s age at first marriage and has a positive effect on the age when women marry. It is also shown that older Baptist men are substantially more likely than Catholic men to experience a divorce. Older Catholic women are somewhat less likely to experience a divorce than non-Baptist Protestant women. There is no Catholic effect on the odds that younger men and women will divorce.
Religion as a determinant of marital stability
Authors: Lehrer Evelyn L. , Chiswick Carmel U.
Published: March 2007

Using data from the 1987–1988 National Survey of Families and Households, this paper studies the role of the religious composition of unions as a determinant of marital stability. With the exceptions of Mormons and individuals with no religious identification, stability is found to be remarkably similar across the various types of homogamous unions. Consistent with the notion that religion is a complementary marital trait, interfaith unions have generally higher rates of dissolution than intrafaith unions. The destabilizing effect of out-marriage varies inversely with the similarity in beliefs and practices of the two religions as well as with the mutual tolerance embodied in their respective doctrines. The results also suggest that religious compatibility between spouses at the time of marriage has a large influence on marital stability, rivaling in magnitude that of age at marriage and, at least for Protestants and Catholics, dominating any adverse effects of differences in religious background.
Siblings’ neonatal mortality risks and birth spacing in Bangladesh
Authors: Zenger Elizabeth
Published: March 2007

This paper studies the familial association of neonatal mortality in Matlab, Bangladesh and its relationship to birth-spacing effects on mortality. Findings show that familial association is strongest for siblings of adjacent birth orders. Moreover, birth-spacing effects on neonatal mortality are stronger when the preceding child has survived the neonatal period than when it has died. Transitional (Markov), random-effects, and marginal models for correlated data are introduced, and are contrasted in interpretation and technique. Familial association of neonatal mortality can be approximated well by a first-order Markov model using generalized estimating equations (GEE) to allow for higher-order correlation.
Retirement against the demographic trend: More older people living longer, working less, and saving less
Authors: Wise David A.
Published: March 2007

The American population is aging rapidly and individuals are living longer. Yet Americans are saving less and older workers are leaving the labor force at younger and younger ages. The accelerated drop in labor force participation corresponds roughly to the introduction of Social Security and the adaption of employer-provided pension plans. I have illustrated that Social Security and employer-provided pension plans provide substantial incentive to leave the labor force early. The quantitative effect of this inducement is illustrated by simulating the effects of changes in pension plan and Social Security provisions on the retirement decisions of employees in a large firm, who are covered by a typical defined benefit pension plan. Scheduled Social Security changes would have little effect on the retirement decisions of employees with a typical defined benefit pension plan like the one considered here. But if the pension plan provisions were changed to correspond to the Social Security changes, the effect would be very large. And, although not contemplated by current legislation, it is clear that an increase in the Social Security early retirement age would have a substantial effect on the early retirement rates of the large number of employees not covered by a pension plan.
The effects of economic and population growth on national saving and inequality
Authors: Deaton Angus S. , Paxson Christina H.
Published: March 2007

This is a progress report on ongoing research into the effects of economic and population growth on national saving rates and inequality. The theoretical basis for the investigation is the life cycle model of saving and inequality. We report evidence that is conditional on the validity of the model, as well as evidence that casts doubt on it. Using time series of cross-sectional household surveys from Taiwan, Thailand, Britain, and the United States, we show that it is possible to force a life cycle interpretation on the data on consumption, income, and saving, but that the evidence is not consistent with large rate-of-growth effects, whereby economic and population growth enhances rates of national saving. The well-established cross-country link between economic growth and saving cannot be attributed to life cycle saving, nor will changes in economic or population growth exert large effects on saving within individual countries. There is evidence in favor of the life cycle model’s prediction that within-cohort inequality of consumption and of total income—though not necessarily inequality of earnings—should increase with the age of the cohort. Decreases in the population growth rate redistribute population toward older, more unequal, cohorts, and can increase national inequality. We provide calculations on the magnitude of these effects.
Changes in the age dependence of mortality and disability: Cohort and other determinants
Authors: Manton Kenneth G. , Stallard Eric , Corder Larry
Published: March 2007

Though the general trend in the United States has been toward increasing life expectancy both at birth and at age 65, the temporal rate of change in life expectancy since 1900 has been variable and often restricted to specific population groups. There have been periods during which the age- and gender-specific risks of particular causes of death have either increased or decreased. These periods partly reflect the persistent effects of population health factors on specific birth cohorts. It is important to understand the ebbs and flows of cause-specific mortality rates because general life expectancy trends are the product of interactions of multiple dynamic period and cohort factors. Consequently, we first review factors potentially affecting cohort health back to 1880 and explore how that history might affect the current and future cohort mortality risks of major chronic diseases. We then examine how those factors affect the age-specific linkage of disability and mortality in three sets of birth cohorts assessed using the 1982, 1984, and 1989 National Long Term Care Surveys and Medicare mortality data collected from 1982 to 1991. We find large changes in both mortality and disability in those cohorts. providing insights into what changes might have occurred and into what future changes might be expected.
Job, Family, and Gender: Determinants of Nonstandard Work Schedules Among Employed Americans in 1991
Authors: Presser Harriet B.
Published: March 2007

This study provides the most recent national estimates of the prevalence of employment during nonstandard hours (evenings, nights, or rotating hours) and on weekends. It also examines in a multivariate context the relevance of job and family characteristics as determinants of such employment, separately for men and for women. The findings support the contention that the demand for employment during nonstandard hours and weekends is pervasive throughout the occupational hierarchy, but particularly in service occupations and in personal service industries and for both men and .women. Gender differences exist, however, in the relevance of family factors. Being married reduces women’s but not men’s likelihood of employment during nonstandard hours, and the presence of children affects women’s but not men’s hours and days of employment. (The direction of the effect for women depends on the children’s age.) Implications of these findings are discussed.
The Elderly Who Live Alone in the United States: Historical Perspectives on Household Change
Authors: Kramarow Ellen A.
Published: March 2007

One of the most dramatic changes in the life of the elderly in the United States in the twentieth century is the rise in the proportion of elderly widows living alone. This paper examines this transformation by comparing the determinants of elderly widows’ living alone at four points in time, in 1910, 1940, 1960, and 1990. Logistic regression models of the probability of living alone are estimated. The results of these models are used to calculate the expected proportion of elderly widows living alone in various hypothetical scenarios of social change. This analysis suggests that no single factor is responsible for the rise in living alone among the elderly. Value changes, as represented by a variable for time, are shown to have strong and direct effects on the increased probability of living alone in old age in the late twentieth century, independent of the effect of rising income levels. These results are discussed in light of previous research on living arrangements of the elderly, which articulates demographic, economic, and cultural explanations for change.
Demographic Change, Rising Earnings Inequality, and the Distribution of Personal Well-Being, 1959–1989
Authors: Karoly Lynn A. , Burtless Gary
Published: March 2007

This paper uses new methods to determine the sources of the sharp fall and then the steep rise in personal income inequality between 1959 and 1989. The increase in the proportion of single-head families tended to boost inequality over the entire period. Forty percent of the reduction in income inequality in the 1960s occurred because of the decline in earnings inequality among male heads of families; more than one-third of the increase in inequality after 1969 occurred because inequality in male earnings soared. Since 1979 females’ gains in earnings have increased inequality because these gains have been concentrated increasingly in families with high incomes
Premarital Cohabitation and Subsequent Marital Dissolution: A Matter of Self-Selection?
Authors: Lillard Lee A. , Brien Michael J. , Waite Linda J.
Published: March 2007

Married couples who began their relationship by cohabiting appear to face an increased risk of marital dissolution, which may be due to self-selection of more dissolution-prone individuals into cohabitation before marriage. This paper uses newly developed econometric methods to explicitly address the endogeneity of cohabitation before marriage in the hazard of marital disruption by allowing the unobserved heterogeneity components to be correlated across the decisions to cohabit and to end a marriage. These methods are applied to data from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972. We find significant heterogeneity in both cohabitation and marriage disruption, and discover evidence of self-selection into cohabitation.
Geographic information systems, spatial network analysis, and contraceptive choice
Authors: Entwisle Barbara , Rindfuss Ronald R. , Walsh Stephen J. , Evans Tom P. , Curran Sara R.
Published: March 2007

How does family planning accessibility affect contraceptive choice? In this paper we use techniques of spatial analysis to develop measures of family planning accessibility, and evaluate the effects of these geographically derived measures in a multilevel statistical model of temporary method choice in Nang Rong, Thailand. In our analyses we combine spatial data obtained from maps and Global Positioning System (GPS) readings with sociodemographic data from surveys and administrative records. The new measures reveal (1) important travel time effects even when family planning outlets are close by; (2) independent effects of road composition; (3) the relevance of alternative sources of family planning supply; and (4) the importance of the local history of program placement.
The mobility experience and neighborhood attachment
Authors: Bolan Marc
Published: March 2007

In this study, I consider variables associated with an individual’s most recent move into his or her current residence as predictors of neighborhood attachment. Using the 1978–1979 Seattle Community Attachment Survey, I find that elements of the mobility experience such as an individual’s past history of migration, the motivations for moving, the amount of time involved in the move, and the distance traveled during the move have an effect on shortand long-term neighborhood attachment patterns independent of residential stability and investment predictors. The findings imply that psychosocial factors such as familiarity with the environment, increased premove exposure to the new environment, and perceived control during instances of transition have some impact on individuals’ postmove attitudes and behaviors, and suggest that researchers should look beyond traditional “types of people” explanations of urban neighborhood attachment.
Breaking the racial barriers: Variations in interracial marriage between 1980 and 1990
Authors: Qian Zhenchao
Published: March 2007

Using PUMS data from the 1980 and the 1990 U.S. Census, I apply log-linear models to examine interracial marriage among whites, African Americans, Hispanics, and Asian Americans. Rarely, but increasingly between 1980 and 1990, interracial marriage of whites occurs most frequently with Asian Americans, followed by Hispanics, and then by African Americans. Interracial marriage tends to be educationally homogamous and the odds of interracial marriage increase with couples’ educational attainment. Among interracially married couples with different educational attainments, both men and women from lower status racial groups but with high education levels tend to marry spouses from a higher status racial group with low education levels
Household structure and childhood immunization in Niger and Nigeria
Authors: Gage Anastasia J. , Sommerfelt A. Elisabeth , Piani Andrea L.
Published: March 2007

In this study, we use data from the Demographic and Health Surveys to examine the relationship between household structure and childhood immunization in Niger and Nigeria. We show that household structure is an important determinant of childhood immunization in Nigeria: Children from nuclear, elementary polygynous, and three-generational households are worse-off than those from laterally extended households. However, the lower odds of full immunization among children from three-generational and elementary polygynous households are attributable to low economic status and low maternal education levels, respectively. In Niger, household structure does not have a significant effect on children’s likelihood of being fully immunized.
Community and contraceptive choice in rural Thailand: A case study of Nang Rong
Authors: Entwisle Barbara , Rindfuss Ronald R. , Guilkey David K. , Chamratrithirong Aphichat , Curran Sara R. , Sawangdee Yothin
Published: March 2007

This paper blends quantitative with qualitative data in an investigation of community and contraceptive choice in Nang Rong, Thailand. Specifically, it develops an explanation of 1) method dominance within villages, coupled with 2) marked differences between villages in the popularity of particular methods. The quantitative analysis demonstrates the importance of village location and placement of family planning services for patterns of contraceptive choice. The qualitative data provide a complementary perspective, emphasizing the importance of social as well as physical space and giving particular attention to the structure of conversational networks.
The impact of postpartum redundant use of contraception on contraceptive failure rates
Authors: Curtis Siân L.
Published: March 2007

Redundant use of contraception occurs when periods of contraceptive use overlap with periods of reduced fecundity, and will downwardly bias estimates of contraceptive failure rates. This paper investigates this bias using calendar data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. The paper presents unadjusted and adjusted 12-month failure rates for each of nine countries. The impact of redundant use on failure rates is generally modest. It tends to be greater in Indonesia, however, where both the incidence and the duration of overlap are relatively large.
Estimating seasonality effects on child mortality in Matlab, Bangladesh
Authors: Muhuri Pradip K.
Published: March 2007

This paper estimates the net effect of seasonality on child mortality in Matlab. Results suggest that childhood mortality was well above the average monthly level in the hot, dry month of April and in November, the first harvest month of the aman crop. It was found to be remarkably low in the post harvest months of February and March. and also in August. During the hungry months of September and October, children were at a considerably increased risk of mortality. particularly from diarrheal diseases, if mothers had no schooling. but this was not the case if mothers had schooling. The protective effect of the Matlab interventions on childhood death from diarrheal diseases was also greater during the hungry months than during other months of the year.
Racial differences in occupational status and income in South Africa, 1880 and 1881
Authors: Treiman Donald J. , Mckeever Matthew , Fodor Eva
Published: March 2007

Using data on employed men from the 1980 and 1991 South African Censuses, we analyze the determinants of occupational status and income. Whites are found to have much higher occupational status, and especially income, than members of other racial groups. Most of the racial differentials in occupational status can be explained by racial differences in the personal assets that determine occupational attainment (especially education), but only a much smaller fraction of the White/non-White income differential can be so explained. Despite a modest reduction between 1980 and 1991 in the role of race in socioeconomic attainment, the overall picture shows more stability than change.
Stemming the tide? Assessing the deterrent effects of the immigration reform and control act
Authors: Donato Katharine M. , Durand Jorge , Massey Douglas S.
Published: March 2007

This study uses a new source of data to assess the degree to which the Immigration Reform and Control Act (IRCA) deterred undocumented migration from Mexico to the United States. Data were collected from migrants interviewed in seven Mexican communities during the winters of 1987 through 1989, as well as from out-migrants from those communities who subsequently located in the United States. We conduct time-series experiments that examine changes in migrants’ behavior before and after passage of the IRCA in 1986. We estimate trends in the probability of taking a first illegal trip, the probability of repeat migration, the probability of apprehension by the Border Patrol, the probability of using a border smuggler, and the costs of illegal border crossing. In none of these analyses could we detect any evidence that IRCA has significantly deterred undocumented migration from Mexico.