Estimates Of Future Potential Supplies Of Natural Gas In The United States
Authors: Grow George C. 
Published: December 2007

Grow Jr., George C., Member SPE-AIME

The Potential Gas Committee has recently prepared estimates of the future potential supply of prepared estimates of the future potential supply of natural gas in the United States as of December 31, 1976. These resources are in addition to the proved gas reserves determined by the Reserves Committee of the American Gas Association and represent undiscovered gas supplies expected to be found in the future. The potential estimates are divided into three categories based on the relative degree of certainty that they will be found and are as follows:

Probable: 215 Trillion Cubic Feet - from growth and extension of known gasfields and producing areas.

Possible: 363 Trillion Cubic Feet - from exploratory drilling within geological provinces or basins that are already productive.

Speculative: 345 to 395 Trillion Cubic Feet from exploratory drilling infrontier areas.

The Potential Gas Committee, which is comprised of about 120 geologists and others most familiar with their respective work areas, is the most qualified group to make such estimates.

Introduction

During the past two decades numerous estimates of the future potential supply of natural gas in the United States have been made by various individuals, research groups, government agencies and corporations. Their figures have varied widely. Their methodologies, limiting parameters, and terminologies have also differed. The Potential Gas Committee, through many arduous hours of collective effort, developed its own methodology, limiting parameters and definitions that are reasonable, realistic and workable. The collective judgments of many experienced and highly qualified scientists have resulted in estimates that are useful to industry, government, and the financial community. The Committee's studies indicate that vast resources of natural gas are available and are yet to be discovered by the drill. A description of the Committee, its work, its findings, and its credibility are presented.

THE POTENTIAL GAS COMMITTEE

The Potential Gas Committee is an independent, autonomous group within the gas industry under the aegis of the Potential Gas Agency at the Colorado School of Mines. It was originally organized in the early 1960's at the suggestion of banking and other financial groups. They were interested in the long range future of the industry—what's the outlook beyond proved reserves?—in order to make judgments concerning future capital requirements for drilling, pipe lines, compressors, and related facilities. pipe lines, compressors, and related facilities. Since it started, the Committee determined its definitions, areas of investigation—both geographically and geologically—guidelines, methods, and scope of its studies. Its original scope has been expanded to include offshore areas and greater depths of drilling, and work groups were expanded to include Alaska.

The Committee is comprised of about 120 highly qualified people—geologists, oil and gas engineers, production specialists and other technologists. It production specialists and other technologists. It also includes representatives of state and federal agencies, independent consultants and representatives of producing, pipe line and distribution companies. These are the people who have access to and are most familiar with the scientific and other technical information, some of it highly classified, that is essential for appraising the long range future availability of natural gas resources. No other group, corporate, governmental, or academic, has the knowledge, experience, and specific insights into various geographic and geologic areas that this committee possesses collectively. possesses collectively. Periodically, over the last 15 years or so, this committee has prepared and published estimates of the potential future supply of natural gas in the United States. These estimates are not reserve figures.