bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Time series forecasts and extra‐model information
Authors: Pankratz Alan
Published: July 2007

Often a forecaster has supplementary information (e.g. field reports or forecasts from another source) that cannot be included directly in a time series model. Especially interesting are cases where this information is given at time intervals that are different from those of the time series model forecasts. Previous authors have considered a numerical and a model‐based statistical method for combining extra‐model information of this type with ARIMA model forecasts. This paper extends both methods to vector ARMA model forecasts and dynamic regression (transfer function) model forecasts. It is also shown that a Lagrange multiplier numerical procedure arises as a special case of the model‐based procedure. An empirical example is given.
Uncertainty, identifiability and the propagation of prediction errors: A case study of lake ontario
Authors: Beck M. B. , Halfon E.
Published: July 2007

Most models of environmental systems can be expected to suffer, to a varying extent, from a lack of identifiability. Overparameterization seems both intrinsic and an intractable problem. As a result, interpretation of past observed behaviour through a model is ambiguous, and this will have obvious implications for any predictions of future behaviour. There has been much study of this issue of uncertainty in environmental modelling, yet very limited investigation of its consequences in the use of larger‐scale models. The paper examines some of these consequences for a model of the carbon and phosphorus cycles in Lake Ontario having 24 state variables and thirteen parameters. Filtering theory is used to provide both the conceptual framework for the analysis and a specific, recursive algorithm for the propagation of a variance‐covariance matrix of state prediction errors. Special attention is given to examining the ambiguities that may arise in the making of predictions, and the possibility of generating contradictory statements about future behaviour is introduced. It is found that with this relatively large model the propagation of prediction error variances is insensitive to the degree of correlation among the parameter‐estimation errors and to changes of the nominal estimated values of small subsets of parameters.
Accommodating structural change in environmental systems: The approach of qualitative simulation
Authors: Seixas M. Julia F. , Camara Antonio , Antunes Maria Paula , Pinheiro Manuel
Published: July 2007

In environmental systems forecasting is particularly relevant if one is concerned with structural changes in the system. The term 'structure refers to how the components of a system are arranged together (Kuipers, 1985b). Each component has an associated behaviour and the behaviour of the system as a whole results from the interaction between these components through specified connections. The structure of the system is defined by a range of values for its components. If at least one component exceeds some value that bounds this component's range, a new structure is achieved. Environmental systems are prone to structural change, due to endogenous and usually exogenous agents. This paper introduces a method for considering structural change in the framework of dynamic qualitative simulation. Forecasting of structural change can, in principle, be accommodated by using learning mechanisms. An application to an environmental system is presented for illustrative purposes.
Forecasting with generalized bayesian vector auto regressions
Authors: Rao Kadiyala K. , Karlsson Sune
Published: July 2007

The effects of using different distributions to parameterize the prior beliefs in a Bayesian analysis of vector autoregressions are studied. The well‐known Minnesota prior of Litterman as well as four less restrictive distributions are considered. Two of these prior distributions are new to vector autoregressive models. When the forecasting performance of the different parameterizations of the prior beliefs are compared it is found that the prior distributions that allow for dependencies between the equations of the VAR give rise to better forecasts.
A new parallel algorithm for the n‐Job, m‐machine flow‐shop scheduling problem
Authors: Okamoto Shusuke , Watanabe Ichie , Iizuka Hajime
Published: July 2007

This paper describes a new parallel algorithm for solving the m‐machines, n‐jobs flow‐shop scheduling problem as well as its implementation on a distributed memory multiprocessor. The algorithm is basically a parallelization of the usual branch‐and‐bound method. It also takes advantage of the all‐search method to keep the efficiency of parallel processing reasonably high when subproblems become smaller than a certain size. The performance evaluation is done by comparing the parallel execution of this algorithm on the nCUBE2 multiprocessor and the sequential execution of the branch‐and‐bound with depth‐first search algorithm. The result shows that the mean speedup ratio for some conditions of the problem is more than the number of processors, and the mean speedup ratio for the conditions on which the sequential executions complete quickly is not smaller than 1.
A high‐speed MRI simulator using the transition matrix method and periodicity of magnetization
Authors: Taniguchi Yo , Nakaya Chitose , Bito Yoshitaka , Yamamoto Etsuji
Published: July 2007

An MRI simulator is a tool for understanding MR phenomena and developing new pulse sequences, which determine picture quality and information included in MR signals. Conventional simulators calculate the Bloch equations approximately to reduce the computation time. This paper presents a technique for solving the equations exactly at high speed and for creating images. The processing time is made practical by using the transition matrix method and the periodicity of the magnetization.
Novice program recognition/diagnosis system based on goal/plan concepts
Authors: Kaijiri Kenji
Published: July 2007

Studies on program understanding/recognition have been conducted from various points of view, including debugging. However, the target, the range and the kind of recognition, differ according to objectives. A new problem description method and a new recognition method whose objective is to help novices learn program design and debugging is proposed here. This method has the following characteristics:

It uses the algorithm level problem description. It is called the problem solution tree.

The problem solution tree has positional information regarding goals.

It uses a variety of matching methods to enable matching with many erroneous student programs.

It uses a partial recognition strategy to diagnose programs with which full matching failed.

The system recognized that approximately 85 percent of the novice samples are not well formed.
Evolving sse: A new population‐oriented search scheme based on schemata processing
Authors: Aizawa Akiko N.
Published: July 2007

A new population‐oriented search algorithm called Stochastic Schemata Exploiter (SSE) is proposed here. Similarly to genetic algorithms (GAs), SSE also performs search in the space of solutions by a schemata processing mechanism; however, SSE is characterized by an emphasis on local search. So far, the adaptive global search ability of GAs has been viewed positively. In contrast, SSE takes the point of view that, when applied to actual optimization problems, the GA adaptive global search ability is not necessarily effective; instead, the global search is started by simplifying the population‐oriented search of GAs and reducing the number of control parameters. After reviewing herein the schemata processing in GAs, the property of schemata exploitation is defined, a schemata exploitation search algorithm is devised and the proposed method is evaluated and compared with a simple GA using GA‐easy and GA‐hard test problems.
Experimental study of recognition rate in statistical pattern classification based on finite size of design sample set
Authors: Takeshita Tetsuo , Nozawa Shigeyuki , Toriwaki Jun‐Ichiro
Published: July 2007

When two classes of patterns follow the multidimensional normal distribution, the following procedure is considered. The same number of finite samples is extracted from each set of patterns. The covariance matrices and the average vectors are estimated. Using the estimated parameters, the linear discriminant function or the quadratic discriminant function is assessed by testing how correctly other samples extracted from the same set can be recognized. The authors found a method in which the above method is iterated to examine the deterioration of the recognition ratio due to the finiteness of the learning samples and to calculate the average recognition ratio.

Next, the relations among the dimension of the feature patterns, the number of learning samples and the average recognition ratio are examined and compared to the expression for the approximate recognition ratio (theoretical formula) by Raudys and Fukunaga et al. The limit of application of the evaluation formula is indicated. The deterioration of the recognition ratio is examined, and it is shown that the error ratio is higher in the Bayes decision, and the error ratio becomes closer to the ‐distribution when the dimension of the feature vector is increased.
Improvement of generalization for a perceptron with localized representation
Authors: Oohori Takahumi , Watanabe Kazuhisa , Hoshino Ken
Published: July 2007

This paper intends to solve problems in the BP learning in the conventional multilayered perceptron, and proposes two methods, the local generalization and the global generalization, improve the generalization ability of the perceptron with the localized representation. In the local generalization, the generalization learning is executed so that the generalization ability function based on the distance between the separating partial hyperplanes and the set of patterns for learning, is maximized under the given order of separation in the learning. A problem then is that the range of adjustment for the separating partial hyperplane is limited depending on the order of separations, which prevents the improvement of the generalization ability.

In the global generalization, the generalization ability function is defined considering the order of category separation and the optimal separating partial hyperplanes are determined simultaneously to maximize the function.

Simulation experiments are carried out for the learning task on the two‐dimensional plane and the recognition task for the handwritten Chinese characters. It is seen that the generalization ability is improved greatly. It is seen that the local generalization can realize nearly the same generalization ability, and the global generalization can realize a better generalization ability, compared to the BP learning.
The multidimensional persistent tree: A spatiotemporal data management structure suitable for spatial search
Authors: Teraoka Teruhiko , Maruyama Minoru , Nakamura Yasuaki , Nishida Shogo
Published: July 2007

Multidimensional data structures have been proposed for management of spatial data including points, lines, and regions. Concomitantly, more research on temporal databases as a way to handle temporal information is needed. Although the management of spatiotemporal data becomes increasingly important in geographic information systems and computer‐aided design, these data structures cannot manage spatiotemporal data efficiently. In this paper, the MP‐tree (multidimensional persistent tree) is proposed for handling multidimensional data with insertion/deletion version without the loss of efficiency of a spatial search. The MP‐tree is developed by extending conventional spatial data structure using techniques of Persistent Search Tree. The advantages and disadvantages of conventional methods with respect to both search and memory efficiency are discussed. Finally, using computer simulations, the MP‐tree is shown to have better performances for both range search and spatiotemporal search.
Identification of complicated shape objects by fractal characteristic variables — categorizing dust particles on LSI wafer surface
Authors: Kamijo Masayoshi , Nakazawa Masaru , Shimizu Yoshio
Published: July 2007

This paper describes a mathematical model of dust particles having complex shapes, and an algorithm to identify them, aiming mainly at categorizing types of dust on an LSI wafer surface. Fractal dimension is used to represent the dust features. A conventional fractal dimension applied to specimens as a whole, however, does not sufficiently represent the shapes of dust in each category of the model.

This paper introduces a local fractal dimension into a global fractal dimension so that the feature of a mathematical model can be represented. Also proposed is a method based on Mahalanobis' distance using a fractal characteristic valuable to categorize the data. The proposed method has been tested successively by using real data.
Direction‐invariant methodology for bill pattern recognition
Authors: Mese Michihiro , Sako Hiroshi , Miyatake Takafumi , Ejiri Masakazu , Ueda Hirotada
Published: July 2007

This paper presents a new pattern recognition method for the automatic discrimination of various kinds of bills. The pattern of the object input from the sensor fluctuates due to the a posteriori factors such as the orientation, position and rotation errors, as well as the a priori factors such as wrinkles and smears. The proposed method is to cope mostly with the fluctuations due to the a posteriori factors. It is noted first that the patterns obtained by the two sensing elements at the point‐symmetrical positions in regard to the center of the arrayed sensors are equivalent in terms of the orientation. Then, as the feature parameter for the discrimination, some Hadamard features are adopted which are suited to the processing by the microprocessors. Two feature parameters are derived from the bill pattern, which have a higher discrimination ability, and the “mutually paired domain judgment method” is proposed, where the matching discrimination is applied by exchanging those two features as feature points in the two‐dimensional space. The decision region to be used in the discrimination has the orientation‐invariant property due to the above equivalence, which helps to reduce greatly the memory capacity.

Finally, the result of the evaluation experiment using the actual samples is presented. It is shown that the required misrecognition rate can be cleared if the number of elements with the point‐symmetry is increased. It is anticipated that the proposed method can also be used in the automatic recognition of other sheet‐shaped printings.
Image representation through gray‐scale iterated function systems
Authors: Honda Hiroyuki , Haseyama Miki , Kitajima Hideo
Published: July 2007

Image representation using the random iterated function system (Random IFS) has a disadvantage in that it requires many iterations. This paper proposes image representation through a gray‐scale iterated function system. This method requires fewer iterations and it can obtain better images than the random IFS. The saving in iterations is realized first by the use of a deterministic method, whereas in the random IFS, each mapping is defined as a probablistic event, and it needs many iterations to satisfy the law of large numbers.

In the proposed method, the reconstructed image converges faster than in the conventional method, and it is shown to yield better reconstructed images. Second, statistical characteristics of the IFS parameters are investigated to be used for further accelerating the IFS parameter search. The characteristics are shown to be stable among different images. Simulation results are included to demonstrate the effectiveness of the accelerated algorithm.
A phase connection method for communication protocols
Authors: Sano Tetsuo , Higuchi Masahiro , Seki Hiroyuki , Kasami Tadao
Published: July 2007

As one of the methods to define a large‐scale protocol by combining multiple subprotocols, Chow et al. proposed a method in which protocols satisfying a certain condition called phase are serially connected. In their method of connection, however, two conditions for connection are imposed: 1) the protocol machine should be modeled as a finite‐state machine; and 2) the two‐way channels should both be empty at the termination of the phase.

This paper relaxes those two constraints, and proposes a more general method of phase connection. Using the method proposed in this paper, it is made possible, for example, to define the protocol containing the token passing control by connecting two phases, where the token is fixed in one of the protocol machines.
A structured object modeling method SOMM and its environment SOME
Authors: Harada Minoru , Sawada Takafumi , Fujisawa Terutada
Published: July 2007

It is often pointed out that existing object‐oriented analysis/design methods have problems that make comprehension of design diagrams difficult because too many classes are displayed in a single diagram, design diagrams cannot be reused and details of dynamic behavior cannot be described on design diagrams, etc. To solve these problems, an object modeling method called SOMM is proposed and its modeling environment SOME is proposed where design diagrams are hierarchically structured.

With SOMM, objects are modeled from different viewpoints and are represented using four types of diagrams. Derivation Diagram: DD expresses inheritance relationships among classes; Object Diagram: OD represents association among classes; Even‐trace Diagram: ETD shows even communication sequence among classes; and State‐transition Diagram: STD expresses state transitions in a class life cycle. Aggregation among classes is represented by embedding (Zoom In) an object diagram into a class of another object diagram. As a result, the diagrams are hierarchically structurized. Moreover, because the diagrams are made and controlled for each class, reuse is easy.

Further, all these three models of a class are stored in an integrated object, so SOME can check inconsistency among related diagrams and correct them.

Meanwhile, the event‐trace diagram is extended to represent the details of dynamic behavior of a class, especially the sequence of reactions to the incoming event. Thus the programs could be made systematically and directly from the diagrams.
Recurrent SOLAR algorithm
Authors: Demura Kosei , Anzai Yuichiro , Kajiura Masahiro
Published: July 2007

This paper proposes the Recurrent SOLAR (Supervised One‐shot Learning Algorithm for Real number inputs) algorithm, that can complete learning by a single presentation of analog time series data. The most remarkable feature of the Recurrent SOLAR is the one‐shot learning, which has been difficult in the past modes, and which can be completed with a high speed by a single presentation of the time‐series input data composed of real numbers. The basic idea of the Recurrent SOLAR is the same as in the context model. The time is considered as discrete, and the connection weight of the feedback loop from the output unit or the hidden unit to the state units is fixed. Consequently, the recurrent network can be considered as a feed‐forward network.

The backpropagation algorithm is used in the context model, while the SOLAR algorithm is applied to the Recurrent SOLAR, which is the one‐shot learning algorithm based on the pattern recognition theory. By the use of the SOLAR algorithm, the Recurrent SOLAR can learn the analog time‐series data by a single presentation without falling in a local minimum even for large‐scale data. In other words, it is a learning algorithm that is suited to an environment where high speed is required in the learning.
One‐dimensional processing architecture for gray‐scale morphology
Authors: Kojima Shiji , Miyakawa Tatsuo
Published: July 2007

Mathematical morphology is logically very clear, and has many applications because of its adaptability. They are two types of morphology — binary and gray‐scale. The mathematical base of binary morphology is expressed in logical AND/OR notation. Gray‐scale morphology is based on the addition and comparison of gray‐scale values. However, in this type of processing, the computational cost is proportional to the area of both the original image and the structuring element. Therefore, the computational cost increases very rapidly when a large‐scale structuring element is required. For this reason, specialized architecture, e.g. a Cytocomputer, had been built for fast morphological processing, but large‐scale structuring elements are difficult to build by this method because it requires a large number of devices. In this paper, we describe an efficient architecture for gray‐scale morphological processing, in which we decompose the gray‐scale structuring element to one dimension, thereby efficiently reducing computational cost. We also propose the architecture for a pipelined parallel processor that calculates the gray‐scale dilation. This method greatly reduces the size of the hardware and maximizes the processing speed.
Ionic current model of the retinal photoreceptor and simulation analysis of the photoresponses
Authors: Ogura Toshihiko , Usui Shiro , Kamiyama Yoshimi
Published: July 2007

The fact that the reception of optical information by the retinal photoreceptor and the process of its transformation to the membrane voltage response are due to an interaction between the photocurrent from the outer segment and each ionic current in the inner segment has been confirmed by many physiological experiments. However, the properties of each ionic current in the photoreceptor have not been clear since no physiologically reliable model of the retinal photoreceptor has been constructed.

This paper proposes a model of a retinal photoreceptor, which is a combination of the outer segment model (devised by Torre et al.) and the inner segment model (devised by the present authors). It has been confirmed that this model can accurately represent the electron physiological properties of a retinal photoreceptor. Using this model simulation, the relationship between the photocurrent and the photoresponse dynamics, and an oscillatory phenomena caused by a strong light flash have been analyzed. The results show that the dynamic and nonlinear response characteristics of a retinal photoreceptor are due to the interactions between the nonlinear ionic current in the inner segment and the mechanism of the intracellular calcium.
Comparative study of searching method in recurrent neural networks
Authors: Yokoi Kunio , Gouhara Kazutoshi , Uchikawa Yoshiki
Published: July 2007

The off‐line learning with a supervisor in the recurrent neural network can be considered as the minimum search on the surface (called learning surface) formed by the evaluation functions. The learning surface in the search has a characteristic shape, and the authors are proposing the valley searching method, based on the global shape of the learning surface.

As the search for the minimum, various methods, such as the steepest descent (gradient) and the conjugate gradient methods, often are employed. The relation between the search method and the characteristic shape of the learning surface has not been clarified and it has been difficult to assess quantitatively the usefulness of the searching methods.

From such a viewpoint, this paper considers three methods, i.e., the method of steepest descent, the conjugate gradient method, and the valley searching method, and analyzes the relation between the searching method and the learning surface. It is experimentally shown based on the result of simulation that the valley searching method is better. More precisely, the parameter dependencies of the searching method on the learning curve and the searching process are examined experimentally, and it is shown that the parameters are set more easily in the valley searching method than in other methods. It is also shown that the valley searching method is better also in terms of the convergence time and the dependency on the initial value.
Privacy Protection-A New Beginning?
Authors: Kirby Michael
Published: July 2007

Privacy is universal value. But according to The Economist in 1999 it is finished - killed off by the remarkable capacity of information technology to analyse, trace and re-assemble personal data: affording an unprecedented insight into individual attitudes and activities. Based on the progress made in implementing the OECD Guidelines on Privacy (1980), the author, who chaired the OECD group that devised those Guidelines, reviews their impact, the need to update them and contemporary proposals for new privacy protections suitable to the current technologies. He concludes that the capacity to uphold human values in the context of new technologies, such as informatics and genomics, presents one of the largest ethical questions for the 21st century.
Zimbabwe today: hope against grim realities
Authors: Krieger Norma
Published: July 2007

Zimbabwe's ruling party received the most serious challenge to its twenty year rule when a nine‐month old opposition party won almost 50% of the contested seats in the recent June 2000 parliamentary election. This update identifies the key contestants, their major electoral issues, their campaign strategies, and their electoral fortunes. It concludes with an attempt to make sense of current dynamics and possibilities. Most urgently, will the ruling party respond to the pressures of a new strong opposition to adhere to the rule of law or will it take the country further along the path of anarchy?
Reconceptualising issues around HIV & breastfeeding advice: findings from KwaZulu‐Natal, South Africa
Authors: Seidel Gill
Published: July 2007

This article is concerned with the dynamics between health care workers and pregnant women, and advice given to women about mother‐to‐child transmission (MTCT) through breastfeeding in KwaZulu‐Natal (KZN). Using ethnographic methods, it explores issues relating to HIV and infant feeding in settings where a period of breastfeeding is expected.

The anti‐baby milk action of the 1970s remains an important point of reference, which has profoundly shaped attitudes towards breastfeeding as ‘the culture of health’. For many health professionals in KZN, the breastfeeding lobby, on which the authority of many nurses depends, and its successes, are now perceived to be undermined by AIDS and the ‘AIDS camp’.

International data that point to the risks attached to any period of breastfeeding have provoked a range of reactions among health workers in KZN, from suspicion attached to information ‘from outside’, to confusion and outright disbelief. An integral part of this study is the pattern of power relations that pertain between health workers and their patients, and the values they may seek to sustain. Many nurses hold negative attitudes about young, pregnant and largely unmarried mothers, and HIV/AIDS is an additional stigma. Nurses’ professional socialisation, influencing how they construct gender, women with HIV, and ‘motherhood’, has an important bearing on how they interact with vulnerable young women, and on the information and advice they make available to them. These patterns will also shape the ways in which they engage with the new South African and UNAIDS policy guidelines, which emphasise a woman's right to make an informed decision on infant feeding, in what is a rights’ culture. These representations, investments, and practices, are also shaped by earlier identity processes, and are shot through with images of gender, class and ethnicity. How to advise and counsel HIV+ women on how best to feed their babies raises some of the most complex and hotly debated issues in health care ethics today. It is imperative that these issues, including the ideologies and discourses that may accompany changes in breastfeeding practices, and the values they underwrite, be explored from new angles, underpinned by social theory.
The uncertain future of bilateralism or, ‘it takes two fingers to kill a louse’
Authors: Bracking Sarah
Published: July 2007

Economic and political accounts of events often exist as distinct texts which can obscure the political economy of the subject under discussion. In the analysis of bilateral relations this is particularly evident in the new orthodoxy which takes as given that there is a necessary accommodation which must be made with the requirements of ‘modern’ globalisation to ensure international competitiveness. This has caused many economic policy issues to be regarded as a closed box, as a given, not open to discussion. Debates about them have disappeared from view. As a consequence, it is possible for bilateral development finance organisations to maintain a political and, more importantly, moral agenda of poverty reduction, human rights, good governance and a crusade against corruption without questions of political economy or the more specifically economic relationships between states impinging on considerations of the ‘donor’ state's behaviour.

This article argues that the radical agenda of Britain's Department for International Development (DfID) and the political interventions of international NGOs are often undermined in practice (whatever their good intentions) by bilateral economic and trade relations which are in desperate need of regulation and reform. If there were some concept of international solidarity and true co‐operation, it might be possible to shape the reforms required. Instead, international fora ‐ generally characterised by a democratic deficit themselves ‐ become immersed in a quagmire of hypothetical, even arbitrary, ‘good practice’ codes while developing a blindspot concerning the underlying inequities of bilateral economic relations between North and South.
The Tanzanian general elections on Zanzibar
Authors: Cameron Greg
Published: July 2007

Background

On 29 October 2000,10 million voters in 231 constituencies cast their votes for 13 political parties throughout Tanzania. The election on the Tanzanian mainland was predictably won by the ruling CCM (Party of the Revolution) against a divided and weak opposition. In Zanzibar, on the other hand, the CCM faced a fierce challenge from the CUF (Civic United Front) as approximately 450,000 people voted in 50 constituencies for Union and Zanzibar Presidents and candidates for the Union and Zanzibar Legislatures. In the words of the staid Commonwealth Observer Group, The Zanzibar elections were not free and fair, and were in fact, “a shambles'”. The January 2001 massacres on Zanzibar and subsequent refugee crisis can be directly linked to the flawed elections and the refusal of the CCM regime to respect the majority will of Zanzibaris. Without a doubt a watershed has been reached, one that will further deepen the political, socio‐economic and constitutional crises afflicting the Isles and the United Republic of Tanzania itself.
War in Angola: a Soviet dimension
Authors: Shubin Vladimir , Tokarev Andrei
Published: July 2007

This article addresses the political and military relationship between the Soviet Union and Angola between 1961 and 1991. It examines some of the problems between the two countries and is based on newly available archival material and interviews. Soviet policy towards Southern Africa and Angola has been the subject of a lot of academic research in the West, especially during the ‘Cold War’, yet many aspects remain controversial and contested.
Algeria: contested & embattled
Authors: Turshen Meredeth
Published: July 2007

A decade of violence and news of bloody massacres have replaced the positive images of Algeria ‐ the FLN's successful fight to liberate the country from French colonialism, which was captured for many of us in Pontecorvo's film, The Battle of Algiers; the pioneering writings of Frantz Fanon based on his Algerian experience; and Algeria's leadership (with Cuba) of the Group of 77, which launched the New International Economic Order in 1974 and called for self‐reliant national development grounded in a strategy of collective Third World action.
African peasants and revolution
Authors: Saul John S.
Published: July 2007

Are peasants like a ‘sack of potatoes’, divided and demoralised, or can they become a revolutionary force? While most of the world's oppressed are peasants and their discontent generates the ‘steam of revolution’, a ‘piston box’ is needed to transform it into power. This may be provided either by forms of extraordinary and direct oppression or by organisation and political leadership. In practice it will almost always require both. John Saul examines the range of peasantries in Africa and, using the contrasting experiences of Mozambique and Tanzania, discusses the methods and circumstances which may transform peasantries into the mass base of revolutions.
Indigenous capitalism in Ghana
Authors: Kennedy Paul
Published: July 2007

There are several ‘myths’ about the development of indigenous capitalism in the Third World, which derive from dependency theory. Using case material from Ghana, it is argued that a capitalist class is developing and expanding an already significant base in manufacturing. State aid has been acquired to a limited extent and sometimes by corrupt practice, but often when indigenous capitalists have been well established. Connections with foreign capital, far from limiting the expansion of local capital, have helped in the local acquisition of managerial and technical skills, leading to independence from and competition against foreign capital. These findings are not normally predictable from standard dependency theory, and suggest the possibility of a national capitalist development.
Imperialism and the ‘national bourgeoisie’
Authors: Beckman Bjorn
Published: July 2007

This article takes up some of the major issues surrounding the development/underdevelopment debate, as taking place in Kenya and Nigeria in particular. While underdevelopment theory as exemplified in Amin and Frank has been found wanting, the ‘return to Marx’ via analyses of the internationalisation of capital and class formation in the periphery has not answered the questions raised by underdevelopment theory because it has not an adequate analysis of imperialism, one which integrates the study of class formation in the periphery with its effects on the system as a whole and vice versa.An analysis of the Nigerian case shows how this might be done. Most importantly it shows how imperialism protects local bourgeoisies from the demands of the oppressed classes, while local bourgeoisies through control of the state provide monopoly conditions for imperialist expansion.
Women and development in North Western Zambia: from producer to housewife
Authors: Crehan Kate
Published: July 2007

The area of Mukunashi in Zambia is one where capitalist production relations have been but minimally introduced, but where patterns of exchange have increasingly taken a monetary form. Crehan is concerned to investigate the implications of such economic changes as have occurred for the position and role of women. In common with similar situations elsewhere, she finds that new capitalist farming units when introduced are invariably run by men who in turn appropriate any surplus accruing. Women continue to be primarily responsible for supplying family food requirements, and the burden of ‘female’ tasks as regards both time and energy prevents them moving into cash generating activities, save in the case of beer brewing. The latter is an exception largely because the operations it involves are capable of being accommodated into women's normal routine. But while women are able to earn some cash through their efforts, it is hardly sufficient to give them any economic independence.
Food crisis and class formation in Shaba
Authors: Schoepf Brooke
                      Grundfest
Published: July 2007

This article explores issues of agricultural change as they have been played out in the Lufira Valley in south‐eastern Shaba. It indicates some of the interconnections between peasants, the State and capitalist class interests, showing how measures taken in favour of capitalist enterprise contribute to deepening underdevelopment of the peasantry. It also casts doubt upon the assumption that capitalism — monopoly, state or private — can lead to development of productive forces in agriculture. A re‐examination of this issue is pertinent in view of recent Left criticism of ‘underdevelopment’ theory and the notion that African development is being advanced by national bourgeoisies.
Stabilisation policies and the effects on child health in Zimbabwe
Authors: Davies Rob , Saunders David
Published: July 2007

The purpose of this article is to assess the likely impact of stabilisation policies on the health of children in Zimbabwe. It begins with a discussion of some of the general methodological issues involved in this kind of measurement before going on to outline Zimbabwe's recent stabilisation experiences. It considers how policies adopted have affected, first, general determinants of health status and, second, specific health sector inputs. Finally it attempts to assess the extent to which these factors have affected the health status of children.
A new Europe: consequences for Tanzania
Authors: Babu A. M.
Published: July 2007

The fall of the East European regimes as a result of denying their peoples freedom has delivered them over to reactionary politics of the right. If Africa is to avoid the same fate, a peaceful transition to stable democratic systems is urgently required that means immediate freedom of association and a free press. But it also means society must prosper and that in turn still dictates structural transformation. Building democracy continues to constitute political and economic tasks.
The future of Southern Africa: what prospects after majority rule?
Authors: Martin William G.
Published: July 2007

In the debates about a post‐apartheid future, the prospects for the region as a whole have been ignored. They depend first on the position of southern and South Africa in the global division of labour: this has worsened more than most areas since 1950 – even South Africa is more dependent today on exporting primary products; and regional trade, despite the Southern African Conference on Coordination and Development (SADCC), is declining. This deterioration could continue under the redefinition of economic activities now occurring in the world economy. These prospects also reflect the inherited realities: over and above the modest efforts of SADCC, southern Africa's long relations with the South African economy make it into a whole that is more than just a geographically specific set of peripheral states.

Three possible scenarios are explored: the region's renewed and enhanced subordination to an apartheid‐free South African economy; the break‐up of regional ties and the subordination of each of the countries as separate ‘peripheries’ of one section or other of the developed core, as it itself is being redefined between the North Atlantic and Pacific; an alternative, equitable, cooperative regional association, embracing SADCC and South Africa. In the light of historical experience in southern Africa and elsewhere, this latter will face severe odds, cannot be left to dominant interests, and is only possible with regional alliances of anti‐systemic forces.
External collusion with kleptocracy: can Zaïre recapture its stolen wealth?
Authors: Askin Steve , Collins Carole
Published: July 2007

For 28 years, Mobutu Sese Seko has carefully and thoughtfully refined his system for transforming the public resources of Zaïre into private wealth, while using bribery, coercion and violence to thwart all movements for change. The consequences of his system, commonly known as ‘kleptocracy’ or government by theft, are well known: immiseration of the people; destruction of the nation's infrastructure; enrichment of Mobutu and his collaborators; the transformation of Zaïre into the prime staging ground for foreign intervention against other African nations. This article will focus neither on the consequences of kleptocracy nor the growing opposition which, for the past three years, has aggressively but so far unsuccessfully challenged Mobutu's rule.

It will instead examine questions of causation and culpability. It will identify some of the architects, beneficiaries and allies of kleptocracy; analyse the methods used for misdirecting Zaïre's wealth, and catalogue the benefits Mobutu, his domestic associates and his external sponsors drew from this system. It will also discuss the legal mechanisms a post‐Mobutu government might use to recapture stolen assets or set aside debts arising from loans whose proceeds were stolen.
The popular front for the liberation of 20 million ECUs
Authors: Maja‐Pearce Adewale
Published: July 2007

A recent meeting in Brussels, convened under the auspices of the European Commission, concluded that a newly‐created fund to help the press in Africa was best administered from Europe.
From pseudo‐terrorists to pseudo‐guerillas: the MNR in Mozambique
Authors: Nilsson Anders
Published: July 2007

The first part of this article (ROAPE57) outlined the history and the guiding military concepts of Renamo (Resistencia Nacional Mocambicana, MNR) and related the war of destabilisation against Mozambique. This part analyses destabilisation as a specific kind of war with its roots in the counter‐insurgency concept of ‘pseudo units’ which the British developed in Kenya. This article will discuss the kind of mechanisms at work in the recruitment process at the local level and the risk of a second wave of destablisation.
Land claims in Namaqualand: the Komaggas reserve
Authors: Sharp John
Published: July 2007

The recent transition to democracy in South Africa has raised expectations about land redistribution. Although much will be done in this regard over the next few years, there will be many claims for the return of land of which people were dispossessed that fall outside the practical guide‐lines laid down by the new state. Since many of these claims will not be frivolous or opportunistic, there is a serious question about how they should be handled. It is not easy to make generalisations; rather, it will be necessary to deal with specific instances on their relative merits. One cannot arrive at a series of ad hocsolutions without regard to their wider implications and the precedents they may set.

This article examines one instance of a claim for the return of lost land. It looks at the land claims advanced by people in Komaggas, one of six communal reserves inhabited by coloured people in the Namaqualand district of the Northern Cape province. One aim is to show that people in Komaggas have a long‐standing, and entirely reasonable, claim to land beyond the current boundary of their reserve; another aim is to illustrate how, and why, people in Komaggas have struggled, and struggle still, to present their claim in a form to which there can readily be a positive response.
The need for regional integration: a challenge for Africa
Authors: Asante S. K. B.
Published: July 2007

The University of Ghana has decided to establish an African Centre for Regional Integration. The Centre will help to provide a new direction to the current integration process in Africa and respond effectively to perceived interlocking challenges that are clogging the wheels of the process of regionalism on the continent. This Briefing highlights the striking contradiction between general emphasis on the need for economic integration in Africa and the scanty evidence of practical success.
Legitimacy, land & democracy in Niger
Authors: Lund Christian
Published: July 2007

Niger experienced two major political reforms since 1986: a land tenure reform, a Rural Code, aimed at increasing security for the rural population through a codification and formalisation of indigenous land rights, followed by constitutional democracy in the early 1990s. Both reforms aimed at securing some basic rights and were expected to confer legitimacy on the state. The conjuncture of the two, however, unleashed an intensive political struggle, competition over jurisdiction between politico‐legal institutions and the decline of legitimacy of state institutions.
What's left?: The South African communist party after apartheid
Authors: Adams Simon
Published: July 2007

The Communist Party of South Africa survived the collapse of communist states by virtue of its remarkable record of opposition to apartheid and its alliance with the ANC and COSATU. While this has allowed it to expand dramatically in membership and power since its legalisation in 1990, that power has accrued at the cost of influence. The Party leadership has found itself supporting conservative economic strategies and anti‐union actions, turning it into a pressure ‘five degrees to the left’ of the ANC. Membership and grassroots responses to this have been critical, and help to sustain optimism for a left project in South Africa.
The Africa centre in London
Authors: Acheampong Anthony
Published: July 2007

In the thirty years or so since independence, says Dr. Adotey Bing, Africa has chalked up some impressive advances in literacy, education, the output of raw materials, science and technology, and enlightened social policy. And it has had some notable achievements in the artistic, intellectual and sporting fields. Despite this, he bemoans the fact that the rest of the world tends to ignore the continent or to focus almost exclusively on the negative aspects. Africa persistently suffers from an unfavourable media profile, he acknowledges, portrayed as a place wracked by political crisis, endemic corruption, social disintegration and self‐induced penury.
Organising across borders: Algerian women's associations in a period of conflict
Authors: Lloyd Catherine
Published: July 2007

In Muslim contexts of modernity, women's corporal visibility and citizenship rights constitute the political stakes around which the public sphere is defined. Women's visibility, women's mobility and women's voices are central in shaping the boundaries of the public sphere(Gole, 1997:61).

This article examines the consequences for political organisation of Algeria's sustained and bloody conflict. Women's right to public action has been fundamentally challenged in this virtual civil war, and they have been at the forefront of resistance to violence, in different forms of political action and at different levels of society. Religious fundamentalism raises important questions about the nature of the politicaland how it occupies public space, and behaviour in the household (particularly that of women) has become a matter of public struggle. Resistance to or organising against fundamentalism and violence in turn enters a debate about political rights. For these reasons, Algerian women's organisations probably present the most diverse aspects of Algerian associational life. Their experience has wide relevance because it is shared by women in other situations where religious fundamentalism combines with a patriarchal system to oppress them (Helie‐Lucas, 1993).
The Insanity Defence: From wild Beasts to M'Naghten
Authors: Allnutt Stephen , Samuels Anthony , O'Driscoll Colman
Published: July 2007

Objective: This paper provides an overview of the insanity defence. An historical context is offered and each element of the M'Naghten Rules is discussed, highlighting differing interpretations within various jurisdictions. Discussion is offered on the role of expert evidence in addressing the ‘ultimate issue’ before the courts. Significant case law in relation to the insanity defence is highlighted.

Conclusions: Psychiatrists have an important role to play in addressing issues central to the M'Naghten Rules and making these accessible and comprehensible to court and jurors in particular. Insanity is a legal construct designed to determine the extent to which a person may be deemed criminally responsible for a criminal act and is often difficult to reconcile within medical and public paradigms of mental illness and justice. Principles are offered to guide psychiatrists who are called to give evidence in cases where the mental illness defence has been raised.