bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
RETURN ON INVESTMENT AS A CRITERION FOR INVENTORY MODELS
Authors: Schroeder Roger G. , Krishnan Ramakrishnan
Published: June 2007

In the past most inventory formulations have utilized cost minimization or profit maximization as an optimizing criterion. When viewed from the standpoint of the owner or investor, maximizing the return on investment (ROI) is an appropriate criterion for many types of inventories. This paper proposes ROI as a criterion for inventory models and derives optimal reorder rules for some common assumptions. An economic order quantity that differs greatly from the traditional formulas is discussed. The paper also enumerates the conditions under which ROI is an appropriate criterion and contrasts it to the traditional cost minimization and profit maximization criteria.
A COMPARISON OF ALTERNATIVE FORECASTING STRATEGIES FOR MULTI‐STAGE PRODUCTION‐INVENTORY SYSTEMS
Authors: Miller Jeffrey G. , Berry William L. , Lai Cheng‐Yi F.
Published: June 2007

In multi‐stage production‐inventory systems, the demand for precursor items derives from the demand for successor items at the later stages in the system. This paper presents a method for evaluating the performance of two different strategies for forecasting the demand for precursor items. The dependent strategy relies on successor item forecasts to build a precursor item forecast, while the independent strategy relies on the extrapolation of past precursor demand. An expression indicating the conditions under which one strategy is preferred to the other is developed, and the effect of changing these conditions is illustrated with simulation results.
COMPARING IMPUTED AND ACTUAL UTILITY FUNCTIONS IN A COMPETITIVE BIDDING SETTING
Authors: Barnes Jim D. , Reinmuth James E.
Published: June 2007

The main focus of this article is to compare utility functions derived by the Von Neumann‐Morgenstern conceptual apparatus with those imputed through actual pricing behavior. The study is cast in a competitive bidding setting in the oil drilling industry. A version of the Friedman bidding model is used to generate separate bidding models for two drilling contractors. From the actual bids submitted by the contractors and those generated by the model, one can construct each contractor's imputed utility function. An examination of a contractor's derived and imputed utility functions over a common range of outcomes then provides a diagnostic check on the veracity of the Von Neumann‐Morgenstern theory as a prescriptive model of executive behavior.
ON PREDICTING COMPUTATIONAL TIME OF A BRANCH AND BOUND ALGORITHM FOR THE ASSIGNMENT OF FACILITIES
Authors: Mojena Richard , Vollmann Thomas E. , Okamoto Yoshihiro
Published: June 2007

Experience with branch and bound algorithms indicates that computational time is a function of not only the size of the problem, but also the nature of the input data. This paper formulates statistically‐based variables which describe certain characteristics of the input data and experimentally evaluates their ability to predict computational time for one branch and bound algorithm, the relative location of facilities or “plant layout” problem. Results suggest that the described experimental procedure may be useful for an a priori assessment of the computational difficulty of specific branch and bound problems.
THE DETAIL SCHEDULING OF A PART‐TIME WORK FORCE: A CASE STUDY OF TELLER STAFFING
Authors: Mabert Vincent A. , Raedels Alan R.
Published: June 2007

This paper presents a comparison of two heuristic methods for assigning a part‐time work force to meet varying daily work loads. The authors use actual operating data from Purdue National Bank, Lafayette, Indiana, to make teller staffing decisions. The performance criteria for comparison of the two heuristics is the minimum number of workers employed, minimum number of interbranch transfers, and computer time necessary to attain a solution.
A GOAL PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR INSURANCE AGENCY MANAGEMENT
Authors: Gleason John M. , Lilly Claude C.
Published: June 2007

Rapid changes in the business environment have forced property and casualty insurance agencies to re‐examine their objectives. The need to maintain contact with a large number of insurers in order to place business, efforts to reduce cost by utilizing company services, and the expanding demand for commercial lines have all had major impacts on these agencies. In this paper, a goal‐programming model is developed for use in insurance agency decision‐making involving multiple and often conflicting goals. An example is presented.
DETERMINING OPTIMAL SHIFT SCHEDULES FOR TELEPHONE TRAFFIC EXCHANGE OPERATORS
Authors: Henderson Willie B. , Berry William L.
Published: June 2007

A branch and bound algorithm is presented for determining the minimum number of telephone operators, and their shift schedules, required to meet demand that varies over a 24 hour operating period. An integer linear programming formulation is used, and the algorithm is described in terms of its separation, relaxation, fathoming, and branching procedures. Computational results are provided, using actual operating data. The results indicate that practical sized problems can be solved by the algorithm, involving as many as 100 different shift type variables and demand profiles typical of those encountered in many telephone traffic exchanges.
A DECISION—RULE TECHNIQUE FOR PREDICTING ACADEMIC SUCCESS
Authors: Hunt A. W.
Published: June 2007

The objective of this paper is to illustrate an application of a quantitative decision‐rule strategy which incorporates the Wald classification statistic. An empirical example of this classification technique using data obtained from The University of Texas at Austin Measurement and Evaluation Center is presented. This study originated as an attempt to illustrate the usefulness of this infrequently used statistical technique as a practical tool for “predicting” academic performance. A method for measuring the operational effectiveness of the decision‐rule used is also illustrated. This study emphasizes classification as an important part of statistical analysis and focuses on the Wald classification statistic to illustrate one type of problem for which it is suitable.
AN EVALUATION OF TWO MODELS OF UNDERGRADUATE STATISTICS
Authors: Brightman Harvey J.
Published: June 2007

The paper reports on a large scale evaluation of two alternative models of undergraduate statistics courses. The traditional course orientation was compared with a problem‐solving orientation in which the emphasis was on real world problem‐solving, during the winter and spring quarters of 1973–74. The evaluation battery included behavioral and problem‐solving skill measures. The findings indicate that improvements in statistics programs can be made.
USING COGNITIVE DISSONANCE THEORY TO REDUCE THE BACK‐OUT RATE IN SCHOOL OF BUSINESS APPLICATIONS
Authors: Hise Richard T. , Smith Ephraim P.
Published: June 2007

Schools of Business are interested in improving the quantity and quality of their undergraduate enrollments. For this reason, they often contact applicants who have been accepted in order to make them feel welcome. Telephone calls, follow‐up letters and other devices are employed. Cognitive dissonance theory suggests that these should have a positive effect on the percentage of applicants who follow through and actually attend classes, but no empirical evidence exists to prove or disprove this hypothesis. This study reports on the results obtained when two dissonance reducing techniques, a follow‐up letter and a copy of a school of business newsletter, were used to increase the percentage of applicants matriculating for the fall semester. These techniques were not successful in achieving this objective and, instead, may have been counter productive.
A COMPUTER LANGUAGE FOR MATHEMATICAL PROGRAM FORMULATION
Authors: Mills Ronald E. , Fetter Robert B , Averill Richard F.
Published: June 2007

Using a Conversational Modelling Language (CML), a special computer language has been implemented to allow the specification of mathematical programming models and their parameterization. The language has been designed to be “natural” in the mathematical programming context and to include interfaces with computer routines, such as MPSX, for optimization. Features implemented include equation writing, preparation of computer input, automatic checking and removal of redundancies, and the ability to display solutions given sufficient specification of decision variables. Examples of the use of the language in building interactive decision support systems are given.
AN ASSIGNMENT APPROACH TO CHOOSING R&D EXPERIMENTS
Authors: Bernardo John J.
Published: June 2007

The criteria upon which R&D experiments are evaluated are subjective; therefore in practice it is extremely difficult to obtain a series of weights so that the trade‐offs between the various criterion can be analyzed. The problem is compounded when the experiments represent basic research and no prior history is available for utility estimation. This paper presents a graph‐theoretic interpretation of the selection process based only on the rank‐order of the alternatives thus eliminating the need for utility estimation. Index numbers are then obtained as the solution of an integer program. An application and the theoretical foundations of the procedure are discussed.
CURRICULUM DESIGN AND EVALUATION: INCORPORATING STUDENT PERSPECTIVES ON MAJORS AND CAREERS
Authors: Homans Richard E. , Sargent William S.
Published: June 2007

In this paper the authors discuss the curriculum evaluation process. The use of student inputs to this process is supported. A demonstration is given of a methodology for analyzing student attitudes towards areas of study in the curriculum, and their perceptions of the relations between those areas of study and the job market.
AXIOMATIC CONJOINT MEASUREMENT
Authors: Barron F. Hutton
Published: June 2007

This paper is a tutorial on axiomatic conjoint measurement. It summarizes recent developments, illustrates the use of these developments in investigating ordinal data relations, relates axiomatic and numerical scaling procedures, describes previous applications of conjoint measurement, and suggests future applications in the decision sciences. Emphasis is placed on the contributions axiomatic conjoint measurement could make to the analyses of ordinal data structures.
A CASE IN ON‐LINE DECISION ANALYSIS FOR PRODUCT PLANNING1
Authors: Ulvila Jacob W. , Brown Rex V. , Packard Karle S.
Published: June 2007

This report presents an application of quantitative decision‐analytic techniques to consider an opportunity for capital investment in a new product.

Decision analysis is a well‐established technique for evaluating major decisions in which substantial resources and time are available for the analysis and the problem is definitely formulated at the outset. This case study, however, illustrates how decision‐analytic techniques can be used on‐line to improve decision making in a situation in which time and resources are limited, and the manager's perception of the problem changes in response to feedback from the analysis.

The basic decision problem was whether or not the AIL division of Cutler‐Hammer, Incorporated should purchase a six‐month option on a flight‐safety system patent. The president of AIL had only a few weeks in which to make a decision.

The analytic approach focused on a probabilistic discounted earnings model. This model was refined over a two‐week period through a sequence of iterations which incorporated the results of both direct and indirect assessments of probabilities and values.

The analysis affected the company's decision process by providing a vehicle for structuring the ongoing communication between AIL's president and his advisors, and by focusing their attention on the most important issues. In the end, the analysis facilitated a unanimous decision from the decision‐making group not to purchase the option, but to consider participating in the license as a subcontractor at a later date. This strategy had not been considered at the outset.
EXPERIMENTAL INVESTIGATION OF PRIORITY SCHEDULING IN A BANK CHECK PROCESSING OPERATION
Authors: Moore Laurence J. , Taylor Bernard W.
Published: June 2007

This paper reports on a simulation study which was undertaken to determine if float could be significantly reduced by altering a bank's check‐processing priority assignments. Float, the dollar value of check payments not yet collected from parent banks, represents a significant opportunity cost in terms of lost interest income to receiving banks. The study consisted of a comparison of a major city bank's present checksorting decision rules based on minimization of check handling, versus a proposed sorting scheme based on dollar magnitudes of checks. The reults of the research indicated that float could be substantially reduced and interest income increased by employing the proposed priority of scheduting rules.
EXPERIMENTAL RESULTS OF AN APPROACH FOR EVALUATING MULTIATTRIBUTE ALTERNATIVES
Authors: Sarin Rakesh K.
Published: June 2007

In this paper the results of an extensive simulation study are reported to provide empirical evidence on the Evaluation and Bound approach. Some rules for implementing the procedure interactively on a computer are also examined and compared experimentally. The results suggest that the Evaluation and Bound procedure, in conjunction with an appropriate strategy of implementing it, would reduce considerably the information requirement of the decision maker in the choice of a preferred multiattribute alternative.
THE EFFECTS OF CHANGING SAMPLE SIZE ON THE ALPHA AND BETA ERRORS: A PEDAGOGIC NOTE
Authors: Tsang Herbert H.
Published: June 2007

This note discusses a theoretical peculiarity about the interrelationships between the sample size and the two types of decision errors in hypothesis testing theory. It is shown that for a given decision rule, while the alpha error invariably diminishes as the sample size becomes larger, the beta error could increase for certain values of the parameter under the alternative hypothesis.
AN APPROACH FOR IMPROVED INTERPRETATION OF MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS *
Authors: Perreault William D. , Spiro Rosann L.
Published: June 2007

This paper proposes a method, canonical rotation analysis, which facilitates the substantive interpretation of results in multivariate analysis. Canonical rotation analysis is developed as a model which integrates multivariate least squares approaches and the varimax rotation criterion. The generalized applicability of the model to canonical correlation, multiple discriminant analysis, and multivariate analysis of variance is developed. The advantages and limitations of canonical rotation analysis are discussed and illustrated in the context of an industrial marketing research problem.
MARKET STRUCTURE, OPPONENT BEHAVIOR, AND INFORMATION IN A MARKET GAME
Authors: Wolf Gerrit , Shubik Martin
Published: June 2007

An experimental duopoly game was used to test the effects of market structure, opponent behavior, and information about opponent behavior in the game. Rational behavior would be responsive only to market structure. Problem‐solving behavior would be responsive to all three factors. Results showed that decision behavior was responsive to all three factors in interaction as well as reponsive to interactive effects of time.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS IN BUSINESS FORECASTING: THE WIENER‐KOLMOGOROV METHOD *
Authors: Chan K. Hung , Hayya Jack C.
Published: June 2007

The objective of this paper is to introduce the Wiener‐Kolmogorov (WK) method to business researchers and to applied workers who have an interest in spectral techniques. It is seen that the advantage of the WK method is that it provides better forecasts than autoregressive regression analysis when the order of the true autoregressive process is large. The paper outlines the steps involved in the WK method. Also discussed is a labor‐saving feature to guide one at the outset as to whether the WK algorithm should be used. A numerical example is given to illustrate the application of the method in time‐series forecasting.
TEACHING EFFECTIVENESS IN THE DECISION SCIENCES: THE USE OF STUDENT EVALUATIONS
Authors: Peterson Robert A. , Kerin Roger A. , Martin Warren S.
Published: June 2007

This article presents the results of an AIDS‐sponsored investigation of teaching effectiveness in the decision sciences. Two national samples were employed in the study: a sample of 247 business school deans and a sample of 3,292 students from 32 different business schools. Included among the findings are that 87 percent of the deans responding indicate they require some sort of faculty teaching effectiveness evaluation, and that great care must be exercised when interpreting student ratings of an individual instructor's teaching effectiveness.
CONDITIONAL RISK ANALYSIS
Authors: Saipe Alan L.
Published: June 2007

This paper introduces conditional risk analysis as a new approach to extend the standard risk analysis method of Hertz. An exercise in profit planning is used to illustrate the special features of conditional risk analysis: total risk measurement, risk decomposition, factor outcome analysis and variable significance analysis. Mathematical expressions are presented for performing the various analyses.
A CHANCE‐CONSTRAINED GOAL PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR BANK LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENT
Authors: Keown Arthur J.
Published: June 2007

The bank liquidity‐management model presented herein is formulated as a chance‐constrained goal programming model thus allowing uncertainty to be incorporated into a lexicographic solution of the problem. This model plans both for the reserve‐short and reserve‐excess bank, describing appropriate investment or disinvestment action during the computation period. The testing of the model was performed on two banks, one a small rural bank with assets of about $25 million, and the other a large metropolitan bank with assets well in excess of $1 billion, with the actual bank results and the prescribed strategy of the model being compared over a one‐year period. Additionally, sensitivity analysis was performed on the model, providing valuable information concerning the risk‐return relationships associated with each management goal. It is hoped that this model will provide bankers with both an effective diagnostic and operational tool in the development of liquidity‐management planning decisions.
REPLICATION OF A CHOICE MODEL
Authors: Stanton John L. , Lowenhar Jeffrey A. , Shaw Eric
Published: June 2007

This study provides an operational replication of a proposed multiattribute choice model. The necessity of replication in the decision sciences in general and in consumer behavior in particular is discussed. Several alternative forms of multiattribute choice models are considered. Results are supportive of earlier efforts in this area.
A COMPARATIVE STUDY OF THE EFFECTS OF LECTURE AND COMPUTER‐AIDED INSTRUCTION ON STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT IN COMPUTER PROGRAMMING CLASSES
Authors: Tsai San‐Yun W. , Pohl Norval F.
Published: June 2007

This paper describes a study of the differences in student learning achievement (as measured by four different types of common performance evaluation techniques) in a computer programming course under three teaching/learning environments: lecture, computer‐aided instruction, and lecture supplemented with computer‐aided instruction. Detailed descriptions are included of the measurement instruments used to evaluate student learning achievement.

The analysis of variance, randomized blocks design, detected significant differences among treatment groups (teaching/learning environments) when student learning achievement was measured by two of the evaluation techniques.

Implications of the results of this and related studies are detailed and include a consideration of student attitude toward CAI and the cost structure of CAI relative to that of the traditional lecture/discussion format.
LEAST SQUARES VERSUS MINIMUM ABSOLUTE DEVIATIONS ESTIMATION IN LINEAR MODELS
Authors: Wilson Hoyt G.
Published: June 2007

Previous research has indicated that minimum absolute deviations (MAD) estimators tend to be more efficient than ordinary least squares (OLS) estimators in the presence of large disturbances. Via Monte Carlo sampling this study investigates cases in which disturbances are normally distributed with constant variance except for one or more outliers whose disturbances are taken from a normal distribution with a much larger variance. It is found that MAD estimation retains its advantage over OLS through a wide range of conditions, including variations in outlier variance, number of regressors, number of observations, design matrix configuration, and number of outliers. When no outliers are present, the efficiency of MAD estimators relative to OLS exhibits remarkably slight variation.
A SIMULATION MODEL OF PATRONAGE BEHAVIOR WITHIN SHOPPING CENTERS
Authors: Crask Melvin R.
Published: June 2007

This paper presents a micro‐analytic store choice model which eliminates the assumptions of homogeneity of stores and homogeneity of shoppers found in earlier models. The model simulates individual shopping trips within a shopping center and was successful in predicting the stores chosen by a sample of shopping center patrons. Two earlier models were also tested, but the proposed model performs better than either of the simpler models. Besides its predictive value, the model suggests a number of strategic implications for retailers and shopping center developers and provides a methodology that may be useful in other areas of behavioral research.
ON THE INEFFECTIVE EDUCATION OF DECISION SCIENTISTS
Authors: Brightman Harvey , Noble Carl
Published: June 2007

There is general agreement that the training of decision scientists during the past ten years has left much to be desired. This note presents nine rules relating to the fundamental reasons for the failure of training programs, along with suggestions for improving the present state of affairs.
OPTIMIZING AND SATISFICING IN STOCHASTIC COST‐VOLUME‐PROFIT ANALYSIS
Authors: Ismail Badr E. , Louderback Joseph G.
Published: June 2007

This paper examines some of the implications of introducing penalties for output not equalling demand by employing a general stochastic model for a firm facing an uncertain demand with a known probability density function. Several alternative objectives of the firm are considered: (1) maximization of expected profits; (2) maximization of the probability of achieving a particular target level of profits; and (3) maximization of target profits, given a target level of the probability of their being achieved. It is shown that the resulting probability density function of profits is not well defined. The shape and location of the function depend on the relative magnitudes of the model parameters and the output decision. Several important implications of this result for cost‐volume‐profit analysis are discussed.
MODELING THE TIME DISTRIBUTION OF RECIDIVISM: APPLICATIONS AND LIMITATIONS IN CRIMINAL JUSTICE SYSTEM PLANNING
Authors: Liechenstein Michael I.
Published: June 2007

Existing criminal justice system models give scant attention to the timing of recidivism, a key system phenomenon. Using statistical techniques, several aggregate exponential models for recidivism are developed that extend earlier work. Published empirical data permit calibration and comparison with the model's results. Discussion of the model's rationale and possible refinement is accompanied by suggested planning and policy uses.
THE USE OF ARCS AND NODES FOR THE DETERMINATION OF CRITICAL PATHS IN PERT/CPM NETWORKS
Authors: Koehler Anne B. , McClure Richard H.
Published: June 2007

The critical path in a PERT/CPM network is determined in various textbooks by finding the path with associated minimal slack for the network arcs or by finding the path with associated minimal slack for the network nodes. This paper points out that the use of nodes can result in a network path being incorrectly identified as a path of maximum length.
UTILITY MODELS FOR MULTIPLE OBJECTIVE DECISIONS: DO THEY ACCURATELY REPRESENT HUMAN PREFERENCES?*
Authors: Fischer Gregory W.
Published: June 2007

Recent developments in multiattribute utility (MAU) theory in principle provide a formal basis for applying optimization methods to decision problems involving multiple competing objectives. In practice, MAU models and procedures are rarely applied. This paper is addressed to one major source of reluctance to employ these methods; namely, the belief that they cannot accurately reflect the structure of human preferences. This objection to MAU modeling procedures is inherently empirical. In fact, a large body of psychological research has been addressed to this question. This paper examines the relationship between formal MAU theory and the relevant psychological literature. A critical evaluation of this psychological research suggests that a variety of approaches to MAU modeling will typically yield valid mathematical representations of the preferences of individual decision makers.
CONSISTENT RANKINGS BASED ON TOTAL AND DIFFERENTIAL AMOUNTS UNDER UNCERTAINTY*
Authors: Ekern Steiner , Bøhren ØSyvind
Published: June 2007

Rankings of decision alternatives based on total and on differential monetary amounts may in general be inconsistent under uncertainty. In the following cases, either approach is valid and hence yields consistent rankings: (i) with expected values, provided that the differential amounts have been coherently determined and are constant within states (but may differ across states); (ii) with exponential utility functions if the shared and differential amounts are statistically independent; or (iii) in a market valuation context, assuming diversification and implicit separate market values for differential and shared amounts.
INQUIRY METHOD, GOAL DIFFICULTY, AND CONTEXT EFFECTS ON PERFORMANCE
Authors: Cosier Richard A.
Published: June 2007

The decision‐making in this study compares the performance of the dialectical inquiry (DI) and the devil's advocate (DA) techniques. In addition, the task was structured to include three levels of goal difficulty and three decision‐making contexts. Over all contexts, there were no significant differences between the DI and DA methods. When the DI technique was employed, however, the context of the decision appeared to be an important factor. The goal‐difficulty factor was associated with significant effects on decision quality only when individuals were divided according to their perceptions of goal relevancy and meaning. Finally, the order in which the contexts were considered was important.
IMPORTANCE OF HYPOTHESES: GROUP COMPARISON ANALYSIS
Authors: Wolf Gerrit , Bassler John
Published: June 2007

A method is presented for measuring the importance of a mean‐difference hypothesis and for a set of such hypotheses. The method is based on the population prediction uncertainty associated with the models for the alternative and null hypotheses. Previous methods for ANOVA designs are special cases of the method presented here. The method is demonstrated showing its flexibility for the analysis of mean‐difference hypotheses. The method encourages tests of meaningful research hypotheses rather than fitting the hypotheses to the method.
MARKET PENETRATION AND LOCATIONAL CONFLICT IN FRANCHISE SYSTEMS*
Authors: Zeller Richard E. , Achabal Dale D. , Brown Lawrence A.
Published: June 2007

This paper addresses the questions of market penetration and locational conflict in a franchise system of distribution. The models developed provide a means to evaluate alternative scenarios and the effects of various franchise policies. It is shown that the market penetration and location goals of the members of a franchise system coincide only under a very limited set of circumstances.
EFFECTS OF GROUPING INFORMATION ON DECISION MAKING UNDER RISK*
Authors: Behling Orlando , Gifford William E. , Tolliver James M.
Published: June 2007

The ability of decision makers to deal with information in terms of category labels rather than as precise data points is hypothesized as an explanation of how complex choices are made within the limits imposed by human information‐processing capacity. Twenty‐five decision makers placed bets under varying conditions of grouping of cues (probability of winning/losing, amount to be won, amount to be lost) as a test of this hypothesis. The results indicate that experimental pre‐grouping of cues has: (1) a statistically significant but practically unimportant impact on amounts bet; (2) no statistically significant effect on number of different bets made; and (3) no statistically significant effect on the fit of the bets to those predicted by an expected value model, except when grouping categories are very wide. These results support the contention that decision making occurs through the manipulation of category labels rather than exact values. Study of processes by which numerous exact cues are reduced to a smaller number of category labels is suggested as a complement to the study of sequential processing of alternatives, satisficing, the use of heuristics, and other means by which human beings make complex choices with limited cognitive capacity.
COGNITIVE INFORMATION PROCESSING BIASES: IMPLICATIONS FOR PRODUCERS AND USERS OF FINANCIAL INFORMATION*
Authors: Wright William F.
Published: June 2007

The emerging judgment and decision‐making literature indicates that individuals use heuristic procedures that simplify cognitive processing requirements. Judgments (particularly subjective probabilities) are based on limited processing of a proper subset of the available evidence. Tasks potentially calling for complex analysis are reduced to heuristic procedures and efficient information processing may result; these heuristics can, however, produce systematic biases and costly errors in judgment.

People also exhibit cognitive biases that systematically affect judgments of statistical properties of random variables. The biases appear to be cognitive in nature and therefore are not due entirely to emotional, motivational, or cost‐of‐processing considerations. For some cognitive biases, a possible explanation has been suggested in the context of a heuristic processing procedure.

The objective of this paper is to analyze and synthesize the currently available research on cognitive heuristics and information‐processing biases from the perspective of research and actual financial decision situations. Important implications for users and designers of information systems will be discussed. One generic conclusion from the literature is that individuals appear to be inadequate “intuitive” statisticians; a need for formal judgment and decision aids will become clear.
FORECASTING WITH EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING: SOME GUIDELINES FOR MODEL SELECTION
Authors: Gardner Everette S. , Dannenbring David G.
Published: June 2007

Despite the general acceptance of exponential smoothing, the choice of a specific smoothing model is often a difficult problem. Previous research involving smoothing‐model comparisons and the penalties for selection of the wrong model has been limited. This paper evaluates the performance of a representative group of smoothing models over a variety of conditions in 9,000 simulated time series. Forecast‐error results demonstrate that a major disadvantage of adaptive smoothing models is their tendency to generate unstable forecasts, even during periods when mean demand itself is stable. Several trend‐adjusted smoothing models are shown to be robust forecasters, whether the time series actually display a trend or not.
ON THE INSENSITIVITY OF BRAND‐CHOICE SIMULATIONS TO ATTRIBUTE IMPORTANCE WEIGHTS
Authors: Green Paul E. , DeSarbo Wayne S. , Kedia Pradeep K.
Published: June 2007

This study compares, via brand‐choice simulation, the effect of various distortions in attribute importance weights on share of choices at the aggregate‐sample level. The results indicate that severe distortions in importance weights can occur with little change in aggregate brand share. The implications of this result for utility estimation in main‐effects conjoint analysis suggest that considerably simpler ways can be adopted to estimate part worths.
ECONOMIC ORDER QUANTITIES BASED ON UNIT‐LOAD AND MATERIAL‐HANDLING CONSIDERATIONS
Authors: Tanchoco Jose M. A. , Davis Robert P. , Wysk Richard A.
Published: June 2007

In this paper, an important but frequently overlooked aspect of production batch‐size planning is addressed: namely, the consideration of unit load and material handling. Thus, an additional cost factor to account for the transportation of unit loads is incorporated in the total cost function which is typically broken down into reorder cost, inventory holding cost, and backorder cost. A cost minimization model is developed that includes constraints related to volume and weight restrictions on unit loads and in‐process storage space. A dynamic programming procedure is utilized to find the minimum cost solution. An example problem is also given.
REFINEMENTS IN THE ISMAIL‐LOUDERBACK STOCHASTIC CVP MODEL*
Authors: Norland Robert E.
Published: June 2007

This paper presents results concerning the Ismail‐Louderback stochastic cost‐volume‐profit model. For the case where demand is normally distributed, an analytic expression for the output that maximizes the probability of achieving specified profits is obtained and a new procedure for determining the output that maximizes the profits, given a target level of probability of their being achieved, is developed. If opportunity costs of lost sales are zero, then analytic expressions for both the above outputs are obtained for any demand distribution.
INFORMATION SUPPORT FOR DECISION‐MAKER LEARNING IN A COMPETITIVE ENVIRONMENT: AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY
Authors: Chorba Ronald W. , New Joan L.
Published: June 2007

An experimental study of decision‐maker learning in a competitive environment was conducted using a computer simulation game. The subject decision makers included practicing managers, professionals, and management graduate students. The subjects competed in a simulated market and made decisions concerning price, product quality, production level, and marketing effort. The objective of the study was to identify patterns of information usage exhibited by decision makers during the learning process under conditions controlling the availability and cost of information.

The experiment convincingly demonstrated that decision makers that have the opportunity to select the data reported to them tend to progress faster in identifying a successful strategy than those that receive an externally prescribed report. This tendency is exhibited independently of the amount of data in the externally prescribed report. Further, there is substantive evidence from the experiment to show that when decision makers are given the opportunity to select their own data, the amount and type of data chosen follows a stable pattern over time during the learning process.
SOCIAL LEARNING THEORY AND THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PRODUCTION INNOVATION*
Authors: Ettlie John E. , Rubenstein Albert H.
Published: June 2007

In a study of the implementation of production innovation using a social learning theory focus, four organizations were monitored with a real‐time study design. The following propositions were strongly supported: (1) During the initial implementation period (3–4 months), the stress felt by personnel in new user organizations was significantly higher (p < .01) than for organizations previously experienced with technology; (2) Firms experienced with the new technology obtain early success when compared with inexperienced firms (p < .01). Moderate support was found for the proposition that new users rely heavily on original equipment manufacturers for demonstration to acquire new skills, but gradually models within the user organization emerge as the dominant influence. The proposition that new users have significantly higher imitation scores than users experienced with the technology was only weakly supported. No substantive or significant changes in the attitudes of users toward the innovation were found during the first three to four months of the implementation period. These and other results suggest that longitudinal studies of this type ought to be carried out over periods in excess of 2 1/2 years. Implications for the management of change are presented.
HEURISTIC LOT‐SIZING PERFORMANCE IN A ROLLING‐SCHEDULE ENVIRONMENT*
Authors: Blackburn Joseph D. , Millen Robert A.
Published: June 2007

This paper examines the impact of a rolling‐schedule implementation on the performance of three of the better known lot‐sizing methods for single‐level assembly systems——Part‐Period‐Cost‐Balancing, Silver‐Meal, and Wagner‐Whitin algorithms—and a modified version of the Silver‐Meal procedure. The main finding is that under certain conditions the computationally simpler Silver‐Meal heuristic can provide cost performance superior to that of the Wagner‐Whitin algorithm.
DYNAMIC LOCATION MODELING FOR PUBLIC‐SECTOR FACILITIES: A MULTICRITERIA APPROACH*
Authors: Schilling David A.
Published: June 2007

A major complication in the planning of facility systems and in the analysis of their locational configurations is the fluctuating nature of the systems they serve. Locations identified now, based on current conditions, may be undesirable in the future, and those based on future conditions may be undesirable now.

This paper proposes a general methodology using multiobjective analysis to plan public‐sector facility systems operating in a dynamic environment. A model is developed for the specific case of locating emergency services and an illustrative example is presented.
AN UPDATE ON THE APPLICABILITY OF AN OCCUPATIONAL GOAL‐EXPECTANCY MODEL IN PROFESSIONAL ACCOUNTING ORGANIZATIONS
Authors: Dillard Jesse F.
Published: June 2007

The validity of an occupation goal‐expectancy model was evaluated using the actual position attainment behavior of professional public accounting firm employees. Actual position attainment behavior was monitored over a four‐year period. The hypothesized model relationships between the model variables, goal choice behavior, and position attainment were tested using linear multiple discriminant analysis and simple classification matrices. A within‐subject analysis was undertaken. The findings generally support the hypothesized relationships between expected utility, goal choice, and position attainment and the model's applicability within large public accounting firms.
ESTIMATING WAITING TIME IN A QUEUING SYSTEM*
Authors: Warren E. H.
Published: June 2007

This study examines how customers joining a queuing system assess their waiting time in the system. Data obtained from an actual queuing system support the paradigm of Parkan and Warren [5] on the use of the observed number in the system in this assessment. It is concluded that customers overestimate mean service time but that this overestimation is not dependent on the number in the system.
AN APPLICATION OF INVENTORY THEORETICAL MODELS TO CASH COLLECTION
Authors: Anvari M.
Published: June 2007

A problem common to all companies operating widely dispersed revenue‐generating outlets is that of transferring these revenues to central accounts. Company funds held in local banks represent an unusable asset that, in view of the high opportunity cost of money, may substantially increase operating costs. A wide variety of systems can be devised to effect this transfer process. As an example of such systems, this paper examines a transfer procedure that uses depository transfer checks. It is shown that a simple (s, S) policy characterizes the optimal transfer policy.
ONE APPROACH TO REALLOCATING INSTRUCTIONAL RESOURCES: THE HOUSTON MODEL
Authors: Wright Douglas J. , Lawless Robert W.
Published: June 2007

In this paper a model for deciding which instructional departments should receive and surrender new or reallocatable resources is developed. It combines a two‐dimensional assessment of resource needs based on instructional characteristics and the academic priority of the department to arrive at resource allocation priorities. Unusual features of the model are its reliance on judgments of departmental centrality to institutional mission as the discriminating variable in ascribing academic priorities and the careful avoidance of “halo effects” through independent assessment of resource needs and academic priorities. The model is sensitive enough to discriminate between competing claims for scarce resources while retaining a simplicity of logic that makes its mechanics understandable to those with little grounding in the decision sciences.
A MODELING SYSTEM FOR HIGHER EDUCATION
Authors: Bloomfield Stefan D. , Updegrove Daniel A.
Published: June 2007

This paper describes a new class of modeling systems for planning and management in higher education. Such systems have been developed in response to the growing need for models that can be individually tailored to the user institution; they are designed also to minimize the burden of data collection and the need for costly in‐house expertise that characterized earlier large‐scale models. In addition to presenting the basic design concepts of such modeling systems, this paper will discuss a variety of managerial applications for which one such modeling system has been used.
AN EXPLORATORY STUDY OF COMMITTEE COMPOSITION AS AN ADMINISTRATIVE PROBLEM‐SOLVING TOOL
Authors: Nichols Mary Lippitt
Published: June 2007

This paper describes the development of a classification of committees frequently seen in response to authority‐task problems in universities. It then reports data that describe how twenty high‐level, experienced administrators, when presented with a series of seven hypothetical cases representing each type of committee, chose to compose each committee. Implications of this work for understanding the use of committees as strategic problem‐solving tools are explored.
TIME‐VARYING PARAMETER ESTIMATION AS EXPLORATION*
Authors: Erickson Gary M.
Published: June 2007

A sequential time‐variation method is utilized in an attempt to detect changes over time in the effectiveness of market communication for an ethical drug. Sudden changes are indicated at three different points in time, and two of these are confirmed by subsequent analysis and information. Gradual changes are also indicated, but these are not confirmed by market information or statistical analysis.
USING AN UNCERTAINTY MODEL TO ASSESS SALES RESPONSE TO ADVERTISING*
Authors: Farley John U. , Tapiero Charles S.
Published: June 2007

Implications of a probabilistic “random walk” model of incremental sales response to advertising are developed for various timing patterns of advertising expenditures. Maximum likelihood procedures for assessing advertising effectiveness and for estimating a decay (forgetting) rate are developed and applied to artificial data of known configuration and are used to assess the impact over time of a brochure program on mail‐order sales. Results are also compared to those from alternative models involving various lag patterns in advertising effects.
Concepts, Theory, and Techniques A NEW METHODOLOGY FOR ORDINAL MULTIOBJECTIVE DECISIONS BASED ON FUZZY SETS
Authors: Yager Ronald R.
Published: June 2007

Using the structural forms supplied by fuzzy set theory and approximate reasoning, a new method is presented for solving multiple‐objective decision problems for which the decision maker can supply only ordinal information on his preferences and the importance of the individual objectives.
A NOTE ON THE RELATIONSHIPS AMONG FINENESS, GARBLING, AND SUFFICIENCY FOR THE COMPARISON OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS*
Authors: Hilton Ronald W. , Kinard James C.
Published: June 2007

Choice among competing information systems is an important problem for both the providers and users of information. When the attributes of the decision makers and decision problems for which information is produced are unknown or heterogeneous, it is difficult to choose among alternative information sources. Three criteria for such comparisons of information systems are available in the theory of information economics. These criteria may be distinguished by the differing restrictions that they impose on the generality of the studies in which they are used. This note explicates the relationships among these criteria and discusses the various limitations that they impose on generality.
INTEGRATING EMPIRICAL RESEARCH INTO THE PUBLIC POLICY PROCESS: AN ILLUSTRATION
Authors: Riordan Edward A. , Becherer Richard C. , Wiley James B. , Richard Lawrence M.
Published: June 2007

A number of critical questions have arisen surrounding the value of using empirical data and analytical procedures in the formulation of social and/or public policy. This exploratory study illustrates how multivariate analyses can contribute to an objective formulation of compromise positions on a complex public policy issue. Both multidimensional scaling and analysis of variance were used to study how the perceptions of three divergent key influential groups could be integrated into a final legislative package. This researchbased methodology provides a more logical approach to public policy formulation than that typically offered by political compromise.
THE MARBLE‐DROP TECHNIQUE: A PROCEDURE FOR GATHERING SENSITIVE INFORMATION
Authors: Stem Donald E. , Lamb Charles W.
Published: June 2007

This study investigates the efficiency of a ballot technique in reducing bias caused by nonsampling errors in studies designed to gather sensitive information. Findings reveal that the technique produces population estimates more accurate than conventional interviewing and as accurate as the randomized‐response technique.
THE ANALYSIS OF OUTLYING DATA POINTS USING ROBUST REGRESSION: A MULTIVARIATE PROBLEM‐BANK IDENTIFICATION MODEL*
Authors: Booth David E.
Published: June 2007

Because the eight largest bank failures in United States history have occurred since 1973 [24], the development of early‐warning problem‐bank identification models is an important undertaking. It has been shown previously [3] [5] that M‐estimator robust regression provides such a model. The present paper develops a similar model for the multivariate case using both a robustified Mahalanobis distance analysis [21] and principal components analysis [10]. In addition to providing a successful presumptive problem‐bank identification model, combining the use of the M‐estimator robust regression procedure and the robust Mahalanobis distance procedure with principal components analysis is also demonstrated to be a general method of outlier detection. The results from using these procedures are compared to some previously suggested procedures, and general conclusions are drawn.
THE EFFECTIVENESS OF EXTENDING THE HORIZON IN ROLLING PRODUCTION SCHEDULING
Authors: Carlson Robert C. , Beckman Sara L. , Kropp Dean H.
Published: June 2007

In recent work, Baker [1] has investigated the use of rolling schedules for multiperiod production scheduling problems. One of his results is that the longest possible forecast horizon is not necessarily the best. He also found that the rolling schedules' effectiveness fluctuates widely depending upon the length of the forecast horizon. To smooth these fluctuations we have investigated use of forecasting to extend the problem horizon. Some of our results confirm the previous conclusions, but other results support the position that “the more information the better.”
ON USING LINEAR PROGRAMMING IN DISCRIMINANT PROBLEMS
Authors: Glorfeld Louis W. , Gaither Norman
Published: June 2007

This commentary evaluates the usefulness of the Freed and Glover [6] linear programming approach to the discriminant problem, relates linear programming to other parametric and nonparametric approaches, and evaluates the linear programming approach.