LABOUR MARKET DYNAMICS IN UKRAINE DURING WAR: ANALYSIS OF MIGRATION TRENDS AND UNEMPLOYMENT INDICATORS
Authors: Tsymbaliuk Iryna , Pavlikha Nataliia , Tsymbaliuk Serhii 
Published: November 2023

Purpose. The aim of this study is to determine the influence of the wartime period on Ukraine's labour market, analyse key transformations and imbalances resulting from changes in the socio-economic context, and identify potential ways to overcome negative consequences and support labour market stability in the conditions of a military conflict.

Methodology of research. Scientific methods and techniques were employed to analyse the impact of the military conflict on Ukraine's labour market. The primary research methods included: analysis of statistical data provided by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, the Ukrainian Institute for the Future, the United Nations Population Fund, and the United Nations Refugee Agency for assessing unemployment rates and other demographic indicators; forecasting based on data from the National Bank of Ukraine to predict possible future labour market scenarios; and analysis of social aspects to determine the impact of the military conflict on unemployment, population consumption capacity, national income, and other socio-economic aspects.

Findings. It is substantiated that the consequences of the conflict have led to a decrease in Ukraine's population, with the population estimated to range from 29 to 34 million individuals as of 2023. It has been proven that the impact of the military conflict resulted in an increase in unemployment, reaching a critical level of 25.8% in 2022, but due to special rehabilitation measures, this figure decreased to 21.1% in the second half of 2022. The conflict has also intensified migration processes, affecting the distribution of the workforce and creating additional challenges in the labour market. It was analysed that post-conflict labour market reconstruction becomes a complex task, with many individuals seeking new job opportunities requiring requalification and skill development. Overcoming unemployment issues and stabilizing the labour market in conflict conditions require a comprehensive approach. Supporting businesses, increasing productivity, and ensuring stability can contribute to resolving these problems.

Originality. The study has advanced the understanding of the impact of the military conflict on Ukraine's labour market, including significant workforce losses and the possibility of exceeding the number of retirees compared to working individuals. Approaches to overcoming negative consequences and supporting labour market stability in conflict conditions have been enhanced by promoting an inclusive labour market, considering workforce shortages, retraining, and increasing the representation of vulnerable groups in the labour market.
Practical value. The research results provide a scientific and practical foundation for developing strategies to rehabilitate the labour market in the context of a military conflict. The conclusions of this article can serve as a basis for further research and the development of policies aimed at supporting the workforce, reducing unemployment, and ensuring labour market stability during the negative impacts of a military conflict.

Key words: labour market, Ukraine, population size, labour potential, unemployment, economic consequences, labour market rehabilitation, migration, comprehensive approach