bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Test the Effectiveness of the Open Spaces Scenario in Promoting Socio-economic Development
Authors: Chen Si , Cai Zipan , Deal Brian
Published: March 2020

The preservation of open spaces is treated as an important policy in recent years as urbanization level is increasing higher in the world (Geoghegan, 2002). There are multiple positive effects associated with open spaces, including recreation, aesthetic and environment values (Geoghegan, 2002). The positive effects of open space as a nature-based solution on urban social, economic and environmental factors have been explored by a number of previous papers, such as housing price (Lutzenhiser & Netusil, 2001; Bolitzer & Netusil, 2000), spatial pattern (Lewis et al., 2009; Irwin & Bockstael, 2004), human health (Groenewegen et al., 2006; Irvine et al., 2013) and social safety (Groenewegen et al., 2006; Fischer et al., 2004). However, relatively less papers have predicted the open spaces’ influences on socio-economic development. This paper will firstly verify the open space influences on economic factor (housing sale prices) and social factor (sense of safety, residential agglomeration) using a linear regression model. We consider the housing attributes, urban form attributes (eg. population density, block size, road density), driving and walking accessibility to different types of public open spaces, and accessibility to other amenities (eg. hospitals and schools) as influential features. Then, we test several machine learning algorithms in predicting the housing price and sense of safety change based on future open space planning scenarios, and choose the most suitable machine learning algorithm. City of Chicago, Illinois, US is chosen to be study area since data availability, sufficient open space types and long-term open space preservation strategies. This study can quantify the values of the open spaces in influencing socio-economic developments and provide a way to test the open space scenarios. It has potential to work as a tool for local planners to make better nature-based solutions in open space designs and plans.
Coastal Stability and Micro Morphology; Disturbances due to Human Interventions along West Coast of India
Authors: Mk Rafeeque , Thulasidharan Akhil , George Mintu E , Ds Suresh Babu , Tk Prasad
Published: March 2020

Coastal areas are known as cradles of civilization from the beginning of human settlements and the coastal belts in tropics experience high density of population all over the world. Indian coastal region is one of the most populated coastal belts of the world. Kerala coastal region of South West Peninsular India hosts 2931 person per sq. km. Stability of coastal zone helps to prevent the intensity of coastal hazards like extreme waves, coastal flooding and coastal erosion, which is quite noticeable in the northern part of Kerala state, when compared to the southern coastal region. The paleo-shoreline of Kozhikode coast in northern Kerala is identified as 2.5 to 5 km landward from the modern shoreline in the Beypur – Kallayi sector, 1 to 2 km in the Kallayi – Korapuzha Sector and 1 to 2.5 km in the Korapuzha – Quilandi Sector. This proves that the area is an accreting one over the recent geological history. The sediment discharge of Chaliyar, Korapuzha, Kadalundi and Kallayi rivers along with micro morphology leads to the evolution and development of this coastal plain for last few centuries. Paleo channels of this area changed its direction in many places during Holocene – Pleistocene period under the tidal influence. Nearshore bottom features of the area got diversified with parallel and transverse bars, reefs, exposed and buried rocks. The major nearshore features are demarcated as Kadalur Cape, Thoovappara, Elathur Cape, Thikkodi reef, Kadalur reef, Anchorage reef, Coote reef, Calicut reef, Rocky It, Gilham rocks, Rocky points, Black rock and Puthiyangadi bay. As a fast growing urbanised coastal city of the state, the Kozhikkode coast line is subjected to intense human interventions and thereby adversely affect sustainability of the coastline. Construction of two major fishing harbours, vis. Puthiyappa and Quilandi and Beypur port in 1990s re-defined the coastal morphology and nearshore bottom features of the sector. Shoreline towards the south of Puthiyappa harbour and Beypur breakwater is accreted and vast beach was developed while the Quilandi harbour doesn’t have much influence on sediment drift. Rocky coast, sand bed, seasonal sand bar and exposed and buried rocks have been properly documented in the paper. Along with those natural features, the artificial landforms and coastal protection measures have been analysed for understanding the disturbances in the coastal stability of the area. One-meter contour of the bathymetry line runs parallel to the coast except in the near shore of the Elathur and Kadalur headlands. Current investigations show that 48 percent of the total coastline can be considered as stable (Quilandi - Korapuzha and Korapuzha – Kallayi sectors), while 36 percent is erosion prone (Kallayi – Beypur Sector) and the rest is accreting.
Testing the Mesozoic plate configuration of the Eastern Mediterranean domain
Authors: Nirrengarten Michael , Mohn Geoffroy , Sapin François , Teasdale Jon , Nielsen Charlotte , Tugend Julie , Frizon de Lamotte Dominique
Published: March 2020

At the transition between the Atlantic and the Tethys oceanic systems, the plate kinematic configuration of the East Mediterranean domain during the early Mesozoic is still poorly understood. Several factors like the Messinian salt, the different compressional events, the thick carbonate platforms and Cenozoic deltaic deposits combine to blur the imaging of Eastern Mediterranean rifted margins. This has led to distinct and often markedly contrasting interpretations of the timing of opening (ranging from Carboniferous to Cretaceous), structural evolution (divergent to transform segments) and kinematics (N-S to WNW-ESE extension).

To address this long-standing problem, we gathered disparate geological observations from the margins surrounding the Eastern Mediterranean Sea to integrate them in a global plate model. Distinct, end-member plate kinematic scenarios were tested, challenged and iterated by observations from the Eastern Mediterranean rifted margins.

The N-African and NW-Arabian margins of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea are relatively weakly reactivated by the different compressional events and were chosen as the starting point of our integrative tectonic study. Legacy plate models for the area mostly show N-S to NNE-SSW opening of the Eastern Mediterranean of pre-Jurassic age. We have integrated dense industrial seismic data, deep boreholes and dredge data, as well as enhanced satellite gravity images that strongly suggests WNW-ESE oriented lithospheric extension and sea floor spreading during the Late Triassic to Early Jurassic.

Our approach starts by the mapping of the main extensional and compressional structures, the different crustal domains and the pre-rift facies distribution. We investigate the potential conjugate margins now located and imbricated in the Dinarides, Hellenides and Taurides on the northern side of the East Mediterranean Sea by looking at the drowning ages of the Mesozoic carbonate platform and the related rift structures. We refine the full fit and initial spreading of the Atlantic Ocean using crustal thickness and features observed on both sides of the system to calibrate the motion of Eurasia and Africa, which determine the space available to develop the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. Initial tests on the evolution of the main tectonic plates highlight an insufficient eastward motion of Africa relative to Eurasia (Iberia) to accommodate the extension of Eastern Mediterranean during the Jurassic with a purely WNW-ESE direction of extension. Further hypotheses remain to be tested. However, for now, a scenario involving poly-phased and poly-directional motion of the conjugate continent “Greater Adria” during Jurassic is favoured to model the Eastern Mediterranean plate evolution in relation with the closure of the Neo-Tethys further north.
Combined state-parameter estimation with the LETKF for convective-scale weather forecasting
Authors: Ruckstuhl Yvonne , Janjic Tijana
Published: March 2020

We investigate the feasibility of addressing model error by perturbing and  estimating uncertain static model parameters using the localized ensemble transform Kalman filter. In particular we use the augmented state approach, where parameters are updated by observations via their correlation with observed state variables. This online approach offers a flexible, yet consistent way to better fit model variables affected by the chosen parameters to observations, while ensuring feasible model states. We show in a nearly-operational convection-permitting configuration that the prediction of clouds and precipitation with the COSMO-DE model is improved if the two dimensional roughness length parameter is estimated with the augmented state approach. Here, the targeted model error is the roughness length itself and the surface fluxes, which influence the initiation of convection. At analysis time, Gaussian noise with a specified correlation matrix is added to the roughness length to regulate the parameter spread. In the northern part of the COSMO-DE domain, where the terrain is mostly flat and assimilated surface wind measurements are dense, estimating the roughness length led to improved forecasts of up to six hours of clouds and precipitation. In the southern part of the domain, the parameter estimation was detrimental unless the correlation length scale of the Gaussian noise that is added to the roughness length is increased. The impact of the parameter estimation was found to be larger when synoptic forcing is weak and the model output is more sensitive to the roughness length.
Time reprocessing and depth imaging of vintage seismic data: the Southern Adriatic Sea case study
Authors: Forlin Edy , Brancatelli Giuseppe , Bertone Nicolò , Del Ben Anna , Geletti Riccardo
Published: March 2020

Nowadays depth imaging of seismic data, using different migration schemes (rays tracing or waves equation methods) and different techniques for velocity model building (i.e. grid or layer-based tomography, isotropic or anisotropic velocity field) is a standard approach for the earth’s subsurface characterization. When dealing with low fold vintage data, acquired with outdated technologies, modern processing algorithms may fail. On the other hand, the reprocessing of these old data with modern techniques may lead to an improvement of quality and resolution, allowing a more accurate interpretation of the investigated geological features. It is important to note that a lot of vintage data were acquired in areas with no recent surveys or currently subject to exploration restrictions. Therefore, available vintage data could be of great importance for all the stakeholders involved in geophysical exploration. We present a case study about the reprocessing of low fold marine seismic data that were acquired in 1971 in the Otranto Channel (Southern Adriatic Sea, Italy).

The first part of the work consists of a modern broadband sequence processing in the time domain, that allowed us to obtain a pre-stack time migrated seismic section; in the second part, depth imaging has been achieved through a pre-stack depth migration (PSDM). Reliable interval p-waves velocity model has been obtained using two tomographic approaches: grid tomography and layer-based tomography; for both, we carried out several iterations of the refinement loop, consisting of migration, ray tomography, residual velocity analysis, velocity model update.

The results show significant improvements compared to the original vintage section, in terms of resolution and signal to noise ratio. Moreover, depth imaging and velocity modeling added further information (e.g., reliable interval p-waves velocity model, real geometry and thickness of the main geological units). This study confirms that applying the up-to-date processing and imaging techniques to vintage data, their geophysical and geological value is enhanced and renewed at a relatively low cost.
Troposphere-Stratosphere Coupling In S2S Models and Its Importance for a Realistic Extratropical Response to the Madden-Julian Oscillation
Authors: Schwartz Chen , Garfinkel Chaim
Published: March 2020

The representation of upward and downward stratosphere-troposphere coupling and its influence on the teleconnections of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) to the European sector is examined in five subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) models. We show that while the models simulate a realistic stratospheric response to transient anomalies in troposphere, they overestimate the downward coupling. The models with a better stratospheric resolution capture a more realistic stratospheric response to the MJO, particularly after the first week of the integration. However, in all models examined here the connection between the MJO and vortex variability is weaker than that observed. Finally, we focus on the MJO-SSW teleconnection in the NCEP model, and specifically initializations during the MJO phase with enhanced convection in the west/central pacific (i.e. 6 and 7) that preceded observed SSW. The integrations that simulated a SSW (as observed) can be distinguished from those that failed to simulate a SSW by the realism of the Pacific response to MJO 6/7, with only the simulations that successfully simulate a SSW capturing the North Pacific low. Furthermore, only the simulations that capture the SSW, subsequently simulate a realistic surface response over the North Atlantic and Europe.
Kraken – a scientific and commercial data meta-platform for wind energy resources
Authors: Kirsch Annekatrin , Feldtkeller Franz , Abel Markus
Published: March 2020

Several international and national initiatives allow access to data from wind measurements, e. g. NREL wind prospector or the international wind atlases. But there is no adequate platform for combined commercial and scientific needs.

Kraken realizes open data concepts for scientific access combined with corresponding licenses for commercial use. To this end, we offer all users to provide links and a possibility for direct upload of wind-related data. Information on data provenance and usability concepts should be provided.

This way, we can collect and provide data of different quality (possibly not to scientific standards) and for different use cases. Scientifically, this may allow access to, e. g., wind park data which would otherwise not be accessible. Commercially, an access to the enormous data bases is possible at one place, a problem that often is underestimated.

On the long run, automatized intelligent analysis of the data will be implemented and the corresponding reports may be published, depending on the licenses related to the underlying data. The whole project is intended to be community-based and extensible to all kind of renewable energy data.

In a first attempt, a website has been launched with limited functionality, now we are trying to involve as many as possible data sources. In addition, we welcome the open implementation of analyses as already offered by other sites (site characterization, feature engineering, improved weather parameterization).
A comparison between 4D-VAR and cycling 3D-VAR methods for the simulation of a severe weather event in Central Italy. Preliminary results.
Authors: Mazzarella Vincenzo , Ferretti Rossella
Published: March 2020

Nowadays, the use of 4D-VAR assimilation technique has been investigated in several scientific papers with the aim of improving the localization and timing of precipitation in complex orography regions. The results show the positive impact in rainfall forecast but, the need to resolve the tangent linear and adjoint model makes the 4D-VAR computationally too expensive. Hence, it is used in operationally only in large forecast centres. To the aim of exploring a more reasonable method, a comparison between a cycling 3D-VAR, that needs less computational resources, and 4D-VAR techniques is performed for a severe weather event occurred in Central Italy. A cut-off low (992 hPa), located in western side of Sicily region, was associated with a strong south-easterly flow over Central Adriatic region, which supplied a large amount of warm and moist air. This mesoscale configuration, coupled with the Apennines mountain range that further increased the air column instability, produced heavy rainfall in Abruzzo region (Central Italy).

The numerical simulations are carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In-situ surface and upper-air observations are assimilated in combination with radar reflectivity and radial velocity data over a high-resolution domain. Several experiments have been performed in order to evaluate the impact of 4D-VAR and cycling 3D-VAR in the precipitation forecast. In addition, a statistical analysis has been carried out to objectively compare the simulations. Two different verification approaches are used: Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve and Fraction Skill Score (FSS). Both statistical scores are calculated for different threshold values in the study area and in the sub-regions where the maximum rainfall occurred.
Petrophysical data analysis using MATLAB tools for the middle Miocene sediments in the Gulf of Suez, Egypt
Authors: Fathy Douaa , Lee Eun Young
Published: March 2020

Middle Miocene sediments are the most important productive oil zone in the Sidri Member within Belayim oil field. The Belayim oil field is one of well-known oil fields in Egypt, which is located on the eastern side of the Gulf of Suez. The Sidri Member consists of shales, sandstones and limestone with net pay thickness ranges from 5 to 60 m. The oil saturated sandstone layers are coarse grained and poorly sorted, which are classified into sub-litharenite, lithic arkose and arkose microfacies with several diagenetic features. This study measured and collected petrophysical data from the sandstone core samples and well logging of drilling sites to evaluate oil potentiality and reservoir characteristics of the Sidri Member. The collected petrophysical data are porosity, permeability, water and oil saturation, resistivity and grain and bulk density. MATLAB tools were used to analyze the extensive dataset, quantify the correlation trends and visualize the spatial distribution. The porosity values range from 2% to 30%, which show very good positive correlation with horizontal permeability (0 to 1,300 md). The porosity as well as type and radius of pore throats present important relationship with permeability and fluid saturation. The petrophysical characteristics of the Sidri sandstones are controlled by the depositional texture, clay-rich matrix and diagenetic features. This study distinguished poorly, fairly, good to excellent reservoir intervals in the Sidri Member. The best quality reservoir potentiality is recorded in the well sorted sand layers with little clay matrix in the lower part of the Sidri Member. The petrophysical characteristics are high porosity (20% to 30%), high permeability (140 to 1250 md), high oil saturation (20% to 78%), low water saturation (13% to 36%), moderate to high resistivity and relatively low grain density. The hydrocarbon production rates reported from the Sidri reservoirs are greatly correlated with the petrophysical characteristics described in this study.
Formation of a Late Cretaceous continental margin arc and an Early Cenozoic back-arc basin in the Kyrenia Range, northern Cyprus related to S-Neotethyan subduction
Authors: Chen Guohui , Robertson Alastair
Published: March 2020

Field, geochemical and geochronological research on Late Cretaceous and Early Cenozoic volcanic rocks in Kyrenia Range provide constraints on the tectono-magmatic evolution of the northerly, active continental margin of the Southern Neotethys. Field mapping in the western Kyrenia Range demonstrates that frontal (southerly) thrust sheets are dominated by felsic volcanogenic rocks. U-Pb zircon dating indicates that the felsic volcanics erupted at 72.9 ± 1.0 Ma (Late Campanian). These volcanics are interpreted as the products of sub-aqueous continental margin arc volcanism based on geochemical evidence. The exposed arc volcanics are somewhat younger than arc-derived volcaniclastic sediments in W Cyprus (80.1 ± 1.1 Ma), and are also younger than arc-related granitic rocks (88-82 Ma) cutting the Tauride active continental margin (Malatya-Keban platform) in SE Turkey. Structurally higher (more northerly) imbricate thrust sheets include Late Cretaceous (Maastrichtian) and Early Cenozoic basalts that are underlain by a Mesozoic continental carbonate platform (metamorphosed), and interbedded with pelagic and redeposited carbonates that formed in an active continental margin setting. The basalts have within-plate geochemical characteristics, although with a variable subduction influence in some areas (e.g., western Kyrenia Range) that could be either be contemporaneous or inherited from Late Cretaceous (c. 70-80 Ma) subduction. Modern and ancient comparisons (e.g., Tyrrhenian Sea) suggest that the basaltic rocks represent incipient, extensional marginal basin formation. Integration with comparable evidence of continental margin arc magmatism in SE Turkey and elsewhere provides a picture of arc magmatism and marginal basin formation along an active continental margin, prior to collision during the Miocene.
The 2019 Stromboli eruption: the space-borne and ground-based InSAR contribution
Authors: Nolesini Teresa , Di Traglia Federico , Casu Francesco , De Luca Claudio , Manzo Mariarosaria , Lanari Riccardo , Casagli Nicola
Published: March 2020

On 3 July 2019, Stromboli experienced a paroxysmal explosion without long-term precursors, as instead occurred before the last two effusive eruptions. In the following months, lava outpoured from a vent localized in the SW crater area, and sporadically from the NE one. On 28 August 2019, a new paroxysmal explosion occurred, followed by strong volcanic activity, culminating with a lava flow emitted from the SW-Central crater area. Subsequently, the eruptive activity decreased, although frequent instability phenomena linked to the growth of new cones on the edge of the crater terrace occurred. This contribution summarizes the measurements obtained through space-borne and ground-based InSAR sensors. The ground-based data allowed to detect pressurization of the summit area, as the instability of the newly emplaced material. The satellite data instead helped to identify the slope dynamics. The integration of the complementary systems strengthens the monitoring of both the eruptive activity and the instability phenomena.

This work is supported by the 2019-2021 Università di Firenze and Italian Civil Protection Department agreement, and by the 2019-2021 IREA-CNR and Italian Civil Protection Department agreement.
Linking macrobenthic fauna and seismic facies to improve stratigraphic reconstructions: the case of the Mid Adriatic Depression since the late glacial period (Central Adriatic Sea)
Authors: Azzarone Michele , Scarponi Daniele , Barbieri Giulia , Rossi Veronica , Pellegrini Claudio , Gamberi Fabiano , Trincardi Fabio
Published: March 2020

Direct observations from the geologic record are commonly used in conjunction with indirect seismo-stratigraphic inferences to detail environmental settings and stratal architecture of sedimentary successions. However, examples of integration between seismic facies and macrobenthic insights are scarce and limited to the use of such a group as auxiliary to other proxies. This case study investigated mollusc and ostracod dynamics along an onshore-offshore profile that intersects the C2 clinothem (15.6 – 14.4 ky BP) of the Po River Lowstand Wedge (PRLW) and the overlying transgressive deposits formed in the central Adriatic Sea. Multivariate analyses were applied to benthic data to assess to what extent mollusc and ostracod assemblages can improve the resolution of seismic-derived depositional environments and stratigraphic architecture of cored succession. Along the profile of the C2 clinothem, seismic reflection facies correspond with three sedimentary environments. Specifically, i) High Amplitude Continuous reflections (HAC) are interpreted as delta plain/subaqueous shelf; ii) High Amplitude Continuous Wavy Dipping reflections (HACWDip) characterize prodelta deposits, and iii) Low Amplitude Continuous reflections (LAC) are associated with distal basin settings. The integration of quantitative palaeoecologic trends with the seismic-derived depositional environments allowed the subdivision of the HAC facies into a proximal (core LSD-26) and a distal (cores LSD-27 and -28) area. In particular, the proximal area with HAC seismic facies encompasses semi-barred lower delta plain with vegetated substrates that evolves to more open, nearshore settings. Conversely, the distal area with HAC seismic facies is distinguished by clusters reminiscent of ecological mixing due to strong bioturbation and gravity flows in offshore transition/inner shelf settings. The paucity of benthic fauna for the units with HACWDip (core LSD-05) and LAC (core LSD-04) seismic facies, hampered a complete reconstruction of the palaeoenvironmental dynamics. However, both benthic groups investigated support the seismic-derived interpretation of shelf and basinal settings respectively, both subjected to high sedimentation rates. Moreover, the integration of mollusc and ostracod multivariate-derived trends with grain-size data across the study profile reveals distinctive stratal stacking patterns useful in constraining the position of key stratigraphic surfaces such as the Maximum Regressive Surface that marks the initial phase of the abandonment of the PRLW.
Probabilistic Flood Loss Models for Companies
Authors: Schoppa Lukas , Sieg Tobias , Vogel Kristin , Zöller Gert , Kreibich Heidi
Published: March 2020

Flood risk assessment strongly relies on accurate and reliable estimation of monetary flood loss. Conventionally, this involves univariable deterministic stage-damage functions. Recent advancements in the field promote the use of multivariable probabilistic loss estimation models which consider damage controlling variables beyond inundation depth. Although companies contribute significantly to total loss figures, multivariable probabilistic modeling approaches for companies are lacking. Scarce data and heterogeneity among companies impedes the development of novel company flood loss models.

We present three multivariable flood loss estimation models for companies that intrinsically quantify prediction uncertainty. Based on object-level loss data (n=1306), we comparatively evaluate the predictive performance of Bayesian networks, Bayesian regression and random forest in relation to established stage-damage functions. The company loss data stems from four post-event surveys after major floods in Germany between 2002 and 2013 and comprises information on flood intensity, company characteristics and private precaution. We examine the performance of the candidate models separately for losses to building, equipment, and goods and stock. Plausibility checks show that the multivariable models are able to identify and reproduce essential relationships of the flood damage processes from the data. The comparison of the prediction capacity reveals that the proposed models outperform stage-damage functions clearly while differences among the multivariable models are small. Even though the presented models improve the accuracy of loss predictions, wide predictive distributions underline the necessity for the quantification of predictive uncertainty. This applies particularly to companies, for which the heterogeneity and variation in the loss data are more pronounced than for private households. Due to their probabilistic nature, the presented multivariable models contribute towards a transparent treatment of uncertainties in flood risk assessment.
Ecohydrological integrative approach to restoration interventions on Pellice River (Piedmont Region, Italy)
Authors: Perucca Eliana , Gibelli Gioia , Peres Francesco , Tarchiani Jacopo , Telò Riccardo
Published: March 2020

Interventions of risk mitigation from floods can no longer be separated from the evaluation and improvement of river ecological status. Specific reference is made to the European framework on water quality 2000/60/CE which in turn, in Italy, has been applied in the so-called Management Plan of the Po basin (2015-2021).

The Pellice River is the recipient of the first multi-objective interventions in Italy that respond to this innovative vision of water courses. It is therefore a pilot case that distinguishes from previous design approaches. The areas of intervention have been identified at institutional level (AIPO, Regional and River Basin Authority), selecting the zones where sediment management and flood defense interventions also include habitat improvement. The working group had the task to prepare the detailed design in order to respond to the need to recreate natural conditions of the river environment and hydraulic risk mitigation.

For this purpose, the Pellice River has been studied for a length of about 20 km from the geological, hydrological, hydrogeological, geomorphological and ecological point of view, thanks to the collaboration of a multidisciplinary group, composed by engineers, biologists, ecologists, foresters, ichthyologist and river vegetation specialists. An analysis of the aquifer levels and a monitoring of the aquatic habitat were also carried out, i.e., through the identification of trout spawning. In this first phase, the aim of the study was to reach adequate information to photograph the morphological, ecological and vegetational status of the watercourse in the intervention areas.

In a second phase, the analysis has been completed by means of mono and two-dimensional hydraulic modeling not only of the flood events but also with a 1- year return time event. This is necessary to evaluate the reactivation of designed secondary channels, the effectiveness of sediment management interventions and the realization of flow diversion structures made with natural elements that can also act as a refuge for animals. These results together with the maximum and minimum depth of the aquifer made it possible to design improved aquatic animal and vegetation habitats.

Finally, some geomorphological indicators have been coupled with vegetational and ecological ones in order to propose a practical instrument for the evaluation of interventions effectiveness over time.
Evaluation of the presence of a weak layer in the numerical simulation of lithospheric subduction
Authors: Pesce Agustina , Sacek Victor
Published: March 2020

One challenge to numerically simulate the subduction of cold oceanic lithosphere under continental lithosphere is the preservation of the decoupling between the subducting and upper plates for tens of millions of years. One strategy to simulate the persistence of the decoupling is the continuous entrainment of a weak layer (i.e. with low effective viscosity) at the top of the oceanic plate, representing a lubrication between both plates. However, variations on the thickness and rheological structure of this weak layer affect the geodynamic evolution of the subducting plate, modifying the geometry and degree of interactions between the lithospheric plates. 

In the present work we evaluated how the variation of the geometry, viscosity and density of the weak layer, relative to the surrounding lithosphere, can affect the lubrication between the two lithospheric plates. We performed a series of 2D numerical simulations using a finite element code for thermochemical convection. The code solves the Stokes flow for a fluid using the Boussinesq approximation in a Cartesian coordinate system, considering that the viscosity varies exponentially as a function of the temperature. In the present visco-plastic approach, the effective viscosity is determined by the combined effect of a viscous component, assuming the Frank-Kamenetskii rheology, and plastic deformation, following the Byerlee's friction law. 

In our numerical scenarios, the subduction is produced by the negative buoyancy of the cold oceanic lithosphere, without the imposition of an external velocity as boundary conditions. The time range of the simulation is of the order of 50 million years. In the initial simulation, a weak zone is imposed in the region between the two plates. This zone presents low viscosity and density relative to the surrounding lithosphere. As the oceanic slab is subducted, the weak zone is deformed and dragged. This removes the lubrication until utterly coupling the lithospheric plates, generating the thickening of the continental lithosphere below the trench region. To preserve the decoupling along all the simulation time, an extra continuous weak layer on top of the oceanic plate is added with low density and viscosity. In this scenario, the first weak zone is still dragged by the subducting plate, but the additional weak layer keeps a lubrication zone between the plates, preventing the coupling of the two lithospheric plates. Therefore, adding a continuous weak layer on top of the oceanic crust together with a weak zone prevents the coupling of the subducting and overriding plates when the effective viscosity of the weak layer is smaller than ~1019 Pa s. These numerical scenarios are used to analyse the subduction pattern of the Nazca plate observed in the southeastern portion of South America, using as constraints the slab geometry of the subducting oceanic plate derived from the Slab2 model.
Predict indoor environment of greenhouses for automatic greenhouse environmental control using machine learning techniques
Authors: Hsu Chia-Hui , Huang Angela , Chang Fi-John
Published: March 2020

Maintaining stable crop production is the main benefit of greenhouses, which, however, would consume additional resources to control the indoor environment, as compared to open field cultivation. In consideration of Water-Food-Energy Nexus (WFE Nexus) management, it’s important to build an integrated methodology to estimate and optimize the crop production and resources consumption of greenhouses. Since the crop production of greenhouses is predictable if the indoor environment is well controlled, the main thing we should consider is how to reduce the water and energy consumption as much as possible during the environmental control process for greenhouses. For this purpose, we first build a machine learning-based model to predict indoor environment, including air temperature, relative humidity (RH), and soil water content, for a greenhouse that grows crops. Then according to the suitability criteria of the crop, the predicted values are utilized for environmental control if the values violate the criteria. Under such circumstance, an estimation model is established to determine which type and level of control mechanisms upon water and energy should be activated for meeting the suitability criteria to maintain stable crop production. The study area is a cherry tomato greenhouse located at the farm in Changhua County, Taiwan, where a total of 44,310 datasets were recorded by Internet of Things (IoT) from 2018 to 2019 at a 10-minute temporal resolution. This study also evaluates the efficiency of greenhouses under different scenarios of climatic conditions. The results are expected to contribute to the automatic greenhouse environmental control for stimulating the synergies of the WEF Nexus management toward sustainable development.

Keywords: Water-Food-Energy Nexus (WFE Nexus); Greenhouse; Machine learning; Internet of Things (IoT)
Deep Learning Neural Networks with Metaheuristic Optimization Algorithms for Groundwater Contamination Vulnerability Mapping in Miryang Aquifer, South Korea
Authors: Elzain Hussam Eldin , Chung Sang Yong , Senapathi Venkatramanan , Park Kye-Hun
Published: March 2020

This study aims to use an integration of genetic algorithm (GA) model and particle swarm optimization (PSO) with the Deep Learning Neural Networks (DLNN) for groundwater contamination vulnerability. Miryang, a city in the northeastern portion of Gyeongnam Province, South Korea was selected as a case study since it showed urban and rural functions and had undergone groundwater pollution. To initialize the modeling purposes, parameters such as depth to water, net recharge, topographic slope, aquifer type, impact to vadose zone, hydraulic conductivity and land use were classified into numerical classes and used as input variables. Two-hybrid models of DLNN-GA and DLNN-PSO were implemented using 95 measured nitrate concentration from monitoring wells for the training and testing of artificial neural networks. The performance of the hybrid models was evaluated by several statistical criteria of error: Mean Square Error (MSE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Mean Average Error (MAE). The hybrid vulnerability models were also validated by the Area Under the curve (AUC). DLNN-PSO showed the highest (AUC=0.974) performance in comparison with DLNN-GA (AUC=0.954) and Shallow Artificial Neural Networks model (AUC=0.70). The results showed that the proposed hybrid models were more superior than the benchmarked shallow artificial neural networks model used for groundwater contamination vulnerability mapping as a good alternative several years ago.
Seasonal prediction of boreal winter stratosphere
Authors: Portal Alice , Ruggieri Paolo , Palmeiro Froila , Garcìa-Serrano Javier , Domeisen Daniela , Gualdi Silvio
Published: March 2020

Advances in the development of seasonal forecast systems allow skillful predictions of the atmospheric flow in the extratropics. Recent studies have highlighted the importance of stratospheric processes in climate variability at seasonal time scales, while their representation and impact in seasonal prediction is yet to be understood. Here stratospheric variability and predictability in boreal winter are evaluated on the seasonal range, using multi-model retrospective forecasts initialised in November. A novel focus is adopted to assess troposphere-stratosphere coupling (i.e., the interaction between upper-tropospheric eddy heat flux and the stratospheric polar vortex) on the basis of the empirical relation derived by Hinssen and Ambaum (2010)[1]. Results indicate that dynamical predictions perform better than persistence forecasts and show significant skill up to lead season one (December to February). We find that seasonal anomalies of stratospheric zonal-mean zonal wind in the extratropics are mostly explained by anomalous tropospheric eddy heat flux; the response to tropospheric wave forcing is weaker in models than in reanalysis. Furthermore, we demonstrate that skillful seasonal stratospheric forecasts benefit from residual predictability of the heat flux over the Pacific sector, while further improvements are limited by current unpredictability of the Eurasian heat flux on the seasonal time scale. Sources of long-term predictability are examined and reveal a potential influence of the QBO, Arctic sea ice, Eurasian snow cover and ENSO. This work is realised using data from the seasonal Copernicus Climate Change Service multi-model (November initialisations from 1993 to 2016) and from ERA-Interim reanalysis.

[1] Hinssen,  Y. B. L. and Ambaum,  M. H. P.:  Relation between the 100-hPa heat flux and stratospheric potential vorticity, J. Atmos.Sci., 67, 4017–4027, 2010.
Spatiotemporal water yield variations and influencing factors in the Lhasa River Basin, Tibetan Plateau
Authors: Lu Huiting , Yan Yan , Zhu Jieyuan , Jin Tiantian , Liu Guohua , Wu Gang , Stringer Lindsay C. , Dallimer Martin
Published: March 2020

Climate and land use/cover changes are widely recognized as two main drivers of variations in ecosystem services including water yield. However, vegetation cover condition, which can also influence the hydrological cycle through evapotranspiration process, is seldom considered. In this study, we used the Seasonal Water Yield Model (SWYM) to assess the spatiotemporal water yield changes of Lhasa River Basin from 1990 to 2015, and analysed its influencing factors by focusing on precipitation change, land cover change, and vegetation cover change (indexed by Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, i.e. NDVI). We first examined the model through Morris Screening sensitivity analysis and validated it with observed flow data. Spatiotemporal variation of three indices of water yield, baseflow, quick flow and local recharge, were then assessed. To analyse the contribution of each factor to water yield change, three scenarios were built in which one factor was altered at a time. Results showed that, the precipitation and vegetation cover change were substantial during the study period, while land cover change was quite small. From 1990 to 2015, the baseflow, local recharge and quick flow decreased by 67.03%, 80.21% and 37.03% respectively, with the change mainly occurring during 2000-2010. The spatial pattern of water yield remained mostly unchanged. The upstream area had relatively high baseflow and local recharge, and was the main contributor of quick flow. The downstream area had relatively low or even zero baseflow, and most of its local recharge was negative due to high evapotranspiration. According to contribution analysis, precipitation and vegetation cover change were the main factors affecting water yield in the Lhasa River Basin. For baseflow, the influence of precipitation change was, on average, 7.98 times as big as vegetation cover change, and the influence of vegetation cover change was, on average, 115.45 times as big as land cover change. However, land cover change began to exert greater influence after 2010. We suggest that besides climate and land use/cover change, vegetation cover change should also be studied in greater depth to fully understand its effect on regional hydrological process and ecosystem service provision.
Correlation between submerged and continental infill at Campi Flegrei caldera: insights on the volcano-tectonic events of the last 15 kyr
Authors: Natale Jacopo , Vitale Stefano , Isaia Roberto , Tramparulo Francesco D'Assisi , Ferranti Luigi , Marino Camilla , Steinmann Lena , Spiess Volkhard , Sacchi Marco
Published: March 2020

The Campi Flegrei caldera (southern Italy) is characterized by over one-third of its extension lying below the sea. In the last 15 ka the caldera floor has suffered hundreds of meters of ground deformation alternating uplift and subsidence episodes in response to the activity of the volcanic system. The evidence of significant uplifts is witnessed by the occurrence of marine sequences exposed on land, both along a 30 m high La Starza cliff and in numerous well logs. However, most of these sediments are currently hidden below the sea. This work aims to reconstruct the marine counterpart of the infill by using large multiscale reflection seismic data (>100 profiles) and an accurate seismic facies analysis. The latter consisted in the study and
comparison of seismic attributes, scaled to the resolution of the different datasets, to their geological analogs on land. Furthermore, by observing the changes in the pattern of on-lap terminations, thickness, amplitude, and distribution of erosive features of different horizons, we tentatively ascribed these sequences to the well-known continental deposits. The study of the whole sequence above the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff (15 ka) allowed us to gather relevant information about the relationships between stratigraphic record, ground deformation and sea-level changes. In particular, the reconstruction of buried surfaces gave us hints on the evolution of the volcanic system including the role of faults in terms of estimation of displacement and relationships with the different epoch of major eruptive activity.
Late Holocene climate variability in the Western Carpathians (East-Central Europe) reconstructed from ice cores records
Authors: Bădăluță Carmen-Andreea , Perșoiu Aurel
Published: March 2020

Ice cores are key archives in the quest to reconstruct and understand past climate variability. They are generally found in polar and high latitude regions, but caves in the Carpathian Mountains (East-central Europe) host several glaciers thousands of years old. Here, we present a reconstruction of summer and winter air temperatures during the last millennium based on the d18O and d2H values measured in ice cores drilled in the glaciers hosted by Focul Viu (FV) and Scărișoara Ice Caves (SIC), both in the Western Carpathians (East-Central Europe, Romania). In order to understand the climatic signal locked in the two cores, we analyzed the stable isotope composition of the rainfall water, which was subsequently compared with that of the cave ice. Accordingly, d18O in ice in SIC is a proxy for late-autumn through early winter air temperature, while that in FV for summer air temperatures. The analysis of d18O values indicate that on centennial scales, air temperature variability during the last 1000 years was controlled by changes during the winter season, summer temperatures being relatively constant (on these time scales). Contrary, short-term variability (decadal to multi-decadal) was well expressed in both seasons. In summer, the main controlling factors seem to be changes in solar radiation and possibly in the strength of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, while in winter, the strength of the Siberian High could have acted as the main forcing factor.
Topographic effects on the initial establishment and growth of pine trees as a riparian vegetation after debris flow-induced disturbance in a mountain stream
Authors: Kim Suk Woo , Lee Jae Uk , Lim Young Hyup , Nam Sooyoun , Chun Kun Woo , Kim Min Seok
Published: March 2020

On July 15, 2006, heavy rainstorm-triggered debris flow destroyed mature riparian forests and altered the channel geomorphology along the Hangye stream, Mt. Seorak National Park, Republic of Korea. We examined the effect of the topographic site condition on the initial establishment and growth of pine trees (Pinus densiflora) as one a dominant species of riparian vegetation along transects on new debris flow terraces formed along the Hangye stream. In the 2019 field investigation, the tree age and internode length of all P. densiflora seedlings were measured in each 25-m2 plot placed at 5-m intervals for a total of 19 cross-section lines marked by a topographic survey using an auto level. For data analysis, stream channel morphology was classified into two typical types: a single channel segment with only the main channel (type A; total of 14 cross-section lines) and divergent channel segment with the main and several secondary channels (type B; total of 5 cross-section lines). The height (Hq) and distance (Dq) of each surveyed plot from the thalweg line of the main channel were considered as topographic site conditions with reference to the establishment and growth of riparian vegetation. As a result, the mean Hq and mean Dq were all greater in plots with the appearance of pine trees than in those without in both type A and type B segments, showing statistical significances at the 1% level. This study also showed that the mean age and mean annual growth rate of P. densiflora seedlings were positively correlated with Hq in type A segments but not in type B segments. Dq showed no correlation with the mean age and mean annual growth rate of P. densiflora seedlings in both type A and type B segments. These results demonstrate that the initial establishment and growth of riparian vegetation were affected by the height above the channel bed associated with the flood frequency and divergent flood flows.

 

Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the National Research Foundation (NRF) grant funded by the Korea government (MSIT) (No. NRF-2017R1C1B5076781).