Abstract 2316: A deep Gaussian process (DGP)-based prediction model for immunecheckpoint inhibitor (ICI) response in gastric cancer (GC)
Authors: Park Sunho , Kim Minji , Hong Changjin , Hwang Tae Hyun 
Published: March 2024

Background: Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) targeting PD-1 or PD-L1 have dramatically improved survival of patients with gastric cancer (GC). However, recent clinical trials, including KEYNOTE-059, KEYNOTE-061, and ATTRACTION-2, show that the objective response rate (ORR) for ICIs is still less than 20% in patients with advanced GC. Therefore, predicting who will respond to ICIs in advance is essential to make better treatment plans for GC patients. There are potential biomarkers to predict ICI response, but most of them can only be applied to a limited population of patients. For example, Kim ST., et al., (PMID: 30013197) show that patients with MSI-high or EBV-positive responded well to ICIs, but these subtypes account for less than 30 percent of GC patients (PMID:25079317). In this study, we propose a prediction model of ICI response using the 32 GC-specific genes that we identified from mutation data (PMID: 26635139) and showed their close association with survival and ICI response in GC (PMID: 35140202; PMID: 36508166). In addition, since the number of available GC-ICI samples is small, we design our prediction model in Bayesian and ensemble learning frameworks which are robust to small sample size problems.

Methods: We collected mRNA sequencing data from GC-ICI treated patients from our institutions and publications (PMID: 30013197; PMID: 35254400; PMID: 33846173). We used 108 samples previously included in our previous work (PMID: 36508166) as the training data and 27 samples (13 responders and 14 non-responders) from (PMID: 3384617) as the test data. We built and trained a classifier to separate responders from non-responders using the expressions of the 32 genes. We proposed to use a Deep Gaussian process (GP) model, a multi-layered extension of a GP that is itself a Bayesian method. We optimized the parameters of each GP model in variational inference. To implement ensemble learning, we trained multiple DGP models with different initializations of the model parameters and data splitting (training/validation sets). For each training run, the best model was selected based on the prediction performance on the validation set, measured by AUC. The final prediction for a test sample was made by combining the prediction results of all the DGP models by taking the average.

Results: We implemented the DGP-based prediction model using PyTorch in Python, and the codes will be publicly available on the GitHub repository (https://github.com/hwanglab/GC_ICI_response_prediction). We achieved a prediction performance of 0.813 AUC on the test data (sensitivity = 0.769 and specificity = 0.714).

Conclusion: We propose the prediction model of ICI response, which can handle small sample size problems in the framework of Bayesian and ensemble learning. The experimental results using the GC-ICI data demonstrate that the 32 genes can be used as predictive markers for ICI response in GC.

Citation Format: Sunho Park, Minji Kim, Changjin Hong, Tae Hyun Hwang. A deep Gaussian process (DGP)-based prediction model for immunecheckpoint inhibitor (ICI) response in gastric cancer (GC) [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 2316.