bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Multiplicateur et probabilité
Authors: Marchal Jean , Poulon Frédéric
Published: July 2012

Keynes begun his scientifïc career with probability theory. But, he had not the idea, as far as we can know, to give a probabilistic interpretation of his famous multiplier. This article is aimed at showing that probability theory, and especially finite Markov chains theory, gives an easier and even more natural interpretation of the keynesian multiplier than the traditional methods.

Multiplier theory may be looked on as old-fashioned today, but it is still at the heart of most of macroeconometric models. So, we define first the relative position of the multiplier, which is linear and actually static, inside these models which are non-linear and dynamic.

Secondly, we give a markovian interpretation of the income multiplier in both cases of the simple multiplier and the matrix multiplier. We compare it with the traditional interpretation: in the probabilistic interpretation every kind of economic agents (banks and firms, and not only households) take a part in the process of incomes which leads to the multiplier.

Finally, we enlarge our method to the neighbouring analysis of the money multiplier and of the velocity of money.

Our conclusion is that the markovian method could also be used for a keynesian crisis analysis.
Note sur la théorie néo-keynésienne du producteur
Authors: Allard Marie , Bronsard Camille , McDougall Gilles
Published: July 2012

While the meaningful theorems of neo-classical theory of the producer are well known, the neo-keynesian counterparts are not. Therefore, this paper will present those new meaningful theorems and their relations with neo-classical theory. On the one hand, this paper is of interest to the theoretician who would want to use the properties of comparative statics of the producer with quantitative rationing. On the other hand, since a neo-keynesian structural form is presented, the econometrician will be interested in imposing the meaningful theorems of this theory as a priori restrictions.
Modèle d’estimation de l’élasticité de substitution et du progrès technologique
Authors: Zind Richard G.
Published: July 2012

We derive in the present study a set of equations that yield, through regression analysis, estimates of the elasticity of substitution and of the indexes of technical change attributed to Hicks, Harrod and Solow. On the basis of data drawn from the U.S. non-farm economy, we obtain estimates that are consistent with other findings namely a value for the elasticity of substitution (between labour and capital) that is less than unity and indexes which imply that technology has tended to be Hicks labour-saving, Harrod capital-saving and Solow labour-saving.
Une méthode asymptotique pour tester la validité du modèle d’équilibre d’actifs financiers (MEDAF) avec pour exemple la bourse de Paris
Authors: Apel Emmanuel
Published: July 2012

One of the problems in testing the validity of the two-parameter CAPM is the determination of an efficient proxy market portfolio to represent the true market portfolio. We test the mean-variance efficiency of a pre-specified market portfolio by using a method proposed by Roll (1976) for testing the linear relation between the rate of return of an asset and its beta, and hence the mean-variance efficiency of a proxy market portfolio. This procedure exploits the asymptotic exact linearity condition of the rate of return and beta by measuring the rate of decrease of cross-sectional residual variance with respect to increasing time-series sample size. The technique is applied to samples of companies on the Paris Stock Exchange for the period 1969-1978: 144 companies and twenty-nine different time series. The results indicate that although the sum of the squared residuals of a CAPM-type regression declines as the number of time observations increases, the sum of the squared residuals does not approach zero as the temporal sample size increases, as would be required for the market proxy of our pre-specified sample to be efficient.
Antécédents familiaux et connaissance de l’anglais chez les francophones du Québec
Authors: Vaillancourt François , Lefebvre Lise
Published: July 2012

This paper examines, using the human capital framework, the relationship between family background and the knowledge of English by Quebec francophones. Using the Probit method and 1978 data we find that the level of schooling and the mother tongue of both father and mother, the occupation of the father and his ethnic origin, the sex of the individual and where he was born, all have an impact on the likelihood of knowing English.
Variables binaires et tests prédictifs contre les changements structurels
Authors: Dufour Jean-Marie
Published: July 2012

The main purpose of the paper is to illustrate the use of a dummy variable interpretation of the predictive Chow test against structural change. After describing how the predictive Chow test against structural change in linear regression models can be viewed as a test on the coefficients of a set of dummy variables, it is shown that these can provide useful additional information on the importance and timing of structural changes. Then, the approach is illustrated by applying it to a version of the St. Louis equation (in rate-of-change form) estimated over the period 1953/I-1976/IV: we detect some instability in the 1970's but find it is rather localized, being linked mainly to two quarters (1973/IV and 1975/III).
L’instabilité structurelle dans le modèle de croissance avec ressource non renouvelable
Authors: Hung N. M.
Published: July 2012

The analysis of the question of structural stability in the growth model with exhaustible resources consists essentially in the examination of the long term values of capital and consumption as they result from parametric variations. The parameters used in this study relate to ethic (discount rate) and to technology (elasticity of substitution between resource and capital and technical progress). Considering the structural stability, the already known results are generalized in two directions. First, a general description of production technology is made. Second, a special attention is given to the question of technological innovation. An analysis of the form of the Hicksian neutral technical progress is made considering an economy with a Cobb-Douglas production function.
L’effet des points aberrants dans la désaisonnalisation
Authors: Huot Guy
Published: July 2012

This article is devoted to an improved estimation of the seasonal factors in the X-11-ARIMA method given the presence of outliers in the unadjusted series. The series are modelled by an ARIMA process and the outliers are identified relative to the fitted values of the model. They are then replaced by their corresponding function values. A good replacement of the outliers improves both the performance of the ARIMA model fitted to the modified series and the revisions to the seasonal factors, especially the latter.
Le comportement des salaires chez les travailleurs syndiqués de l’industrie de la construction au Canada
Authors: Rabeau Yves
Published: July 2012

In this paper, we analyze the behaviour of wages of the unionized workers of the construction industry in Canada. We compare the behaviour of construction wages to those observed in the sectors exposed to and protected from international competition. One conclusion of our analysis is that the construction sector is by far the most inflationnary sector of the Canadian economy. Union power in the construction industry combined with the control of labour supply by skilled trades associations in a market which lends itself to bilateral oligopoly can thus lead to wage increases in the construction sector which in the current inflationnary context exceed those in all other sectors of the economy. This situation is possible because construction firms do not have to face the threat of international competition. The result of this situation is to reduce the level of activity and employment in the construction sector. In addition, the mechanism for fixing wages serves to accentuate the cyclical fluctuations in the construction sector.
Sur l’impact de l’assurance-chômage dans une économie keynésienne : On the impact of unemployment insurance in a Keynesian economy
Authors: Hung N. M. , Lefebvre P.
Published: July 2012

This paper deals with involuntary unemployment. We suppose that wages fail to clear markets and undertake a disequilibrium analysis of the effect of unemployment insurance (U.I.) on unemployment and production. The disequilibrium model is so constructed as to take into account the impact of U.I. on all markets. The neo-classical paradigm based on an equilibrium approach is contrasted with the neo-keynesian paradigm which assumes persistent disequilibrium. It is shown in this perspective that U.I. has an impact on unemployment when the latter is keynesian in nature rather than classical. We conclude that in order to evaluate empirically the effect of U.I., the various kinds of unemployment under analysis must be distinguished. We find moreover, that a disequilibrium framework is most appropriate for the study of unemployment.
La prévision à l’aide des modèles ARMMI et d’information à priori
Authors: Cholette Pierre A.
Published: July 2012

The method of ARIMA forecasting with benchmarks developed in this paper allows the production of univariate forecasts which take into account the historical information of a series, captured by an ARIMA model (Box and Jenkins, 1970), as well as partial prior information on the future behaviour of the series. The prior information, or benchmarks, stems from the conclusions of a study on the phenomenon to be extrapolated, from forecasts of an annual econometric model or simply from pessimistic, realistic or optimistic scenarios contemplated by the current economic analyst. It may take the form of annual levels to be achieved, of neighbourhoods to be reached for a given time period, of movements to be displayed or more generally of any linear criteria to be satisfied by the forecasted values. By means of this method, the forecaster may then exercize his current economic evaluation and judgement to the fullest extent in deriving the forecasts, since the labouriousness and the "trial and errors" experienced without a systematic method are avoided.
Les méthodes « post-keynésiennes » et l’approche post-classique
Authors: Henry Jacques
Published: July 2012

The two most basic non-metaphysical materials used by economists to erect their theoretical structures are prices and quantifies. Two visions of reality are contrasted: (a) that in which historical price determination is explained without reference to demand (Sraffa), and (b) that in which the determination of quantities in historical time is explained without explicit reference to supply (Keynes). In the neoclassical vision of reality, prices and quantities are simultaneously determined by both demand and supply in logical time. It is then argued that the "post-keynesian" appellation is misleading. What is needed is a truly post-classical approach based on the works of Keynes, Sraffa and Marx.
Une question de pertinence : la Théorie Générale du temps de Keynes et aujourd’hui
Authors: Chick Victoria
Published: July 2012

The author argues that there are six key assumptions — although they are at very different levels — on which the General Theory depends. These assumptions are: (i) unemployment is the norm; (ii) there is broad price stability; (iii) the money supply is quite inelastic; (iv) the capital stock and techniques are given; (v) the population is not growing substantially; and (vi) the capital stock is 'inadequate'. These six assumptions are all grounded in the British world of the interwar period that Keynes was looking at. Had the General Theory been written against the American background of the interwar or even the postwar periods, its assumptions would have looked purely analytical, instead of both analytical and empirically relevant.
Keynes et Sraffa
Authors: Asimakopulos A.
Published: July 2012

Keynes' General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money and Sraffa's Production of Commodities by Means of Commodities were concerned with different problems, and this is reflected in the structure of the models they used. Keynes was concerned with the factors determining the level of employment in a particular period of time — a short period — and the ways in which that level of employment could be thanged over a sequence of these short periods. There is great scope for disappointment of expectations and uncertainty in his analysis — it is not tied in any way to long-period equilibrium. Sraffa's analysis was concerned with highly abstract theoretical questions — the value nature of capital and the lack of logical foundations for any marginal productivity theory of distribution that treats aggregate capital as an input. For this purpose, an analysis solely concerned with long-period equilibrium situations is not inappropriate. In these works there is no meeting ground between Sraffa and Keynes. The joining of the two analyses — except as a very special case in which entrepreneurial investment-expectations turned out to be validated by events — would distort seriously the nature of Keynes' analysis.
Keynes, Sraffa et l’économie classique : le problème de la mesure de la valeur
Authors: Seccareccia Mario
Published: July 2012

The author traces the various stages in the development of a viable measure of the net product. Beginning with Petty's seminal exposition of the problem, the paper then analyzes the Physiocratic fixed-price composite-commodity measure, the Smith-Keynes 'labour command' approach, and the Ricardo-Sraffa 'standard commodity' method of defining the net product. Although being the most accurate of the various techniques, the author concludes that Sraffa's method did not solve all the measurement problems raised by the classical economists.
Investissement, progrès technique et croissance économique
Authors: Davenport Paul
Published: July 2012

This paper combines a critical review of the current state of the theory of economic growth with some suggestions for new directions in growth theory. The development of the neoclassical theory of growth and distribution is surveyed, with emphasis on the distribution theory of J.B. Clark, the regression analysis of C.W. Cobb and P.H. Douglas, the growth accounting of R.M. Solow and E.F. Denison, and the reswitching controversy, involving critical contributions by Joan Robinson, Piero Sraffa, and Luigi Pasinetti. Neoclassical growth models, including vintage models, are based on the theoretical separation of investment and technical change, which leads to the curious conclusion that investment is not a central part of the growth process. Post-Keynesian growth models, such as those of Nicholas Kaldor and John Cornwall, deny that such a separation is theoretically or empirically meaningful, and instead put investment at the heart of the growth process. The paper constructs a growth model along post-Keynesian lines, in which the growth rate, the distribution of income, and the normal unemployment rate are endogenous functions of the propensity to invest.
Les post-keynésiens et la monnaie endogène
Authors: Lavoie Marc
Published: July 2012

This paper attempts to identify the peculiar aspects of post-Keynesian monetary theory. In a modern production economy, the growth of the stock of money is an essentially endogenous process. It results from the Financial needs of firms to pay out incomes to households. It follows that monetary policy is asymmetrical: central banks cannot increase the rate of growth of the money supply, they can only restrain it. Hence, inflation is never and nowhere a monetary phenomenon.
La théorie post-keynésienne et la recherche empirique
Authors: Eichner Alfred S.
Published: July 2012

The paper argues that post-Keynesian theory has reached a third stage in its development, that of empirically validating its arguments. The failure of the alternative neoclassical paradigm to meet any of the necessary empirical tests — the correspondence, comprehensiveness, parsimony and praxis tests in particular — is first pointed out. The methodological pitfalls which post-Keynesian theory must guard against if it is to avoid the same result are then indicated. From this line of argument emerges the imminent research agenda if post-Keynesian theory is eventually to place economics on a scientific basis by developing a body of theory which can be both empirically validated and conducive to further empirical research.
Vers une mesure de la progressivité technologique
Authors: Simoneau Marcel
Published: July 2012

In this paper, the technological progress is measured by the relative change in total unit costs when input prices are constant and when the scale of production is optimal, that is where marginal cost intersects with average cost. The conceptual framework for a measurement of technological change is presented in the first section. Optimal scale and minimum average cost are therein illustrated, to elaborate, afterwards, on the decomposition of technical change in three major components. The approach to analyze the time pattern of substitution possibilities is given attention to as well as the analysis of heterotheticity and of various types of technological biases. The second section deals briefly with the econometrics of technology estimation on a sectoral basis. The technology is modelled through a "translog" cost function, that proves to be a second order approximation of any cost function. It is worthwhile to point out that this function may exhibit timevarying substitution elasticities as well as variable returns to scale. A brief discussion of the data used follows. The methodology was applied to Electrical and Chemical product industries, at the three digits level. In the third section, the empirical results are analyzed. They allowed to characterize the substitution profile, the scale and technological biases. They lead, also, to a decomposition analysis of technological change in three major components: efficiency effect, scale effect and bias effect. The analysis was related to 16 subsectors in the Canadian manufacturing, over the period 1961-1976.
Le progrès, le transfert et le choix technologiques dans les pays en voie de développement (PVD) : vers une approche plus réaliste du problème de la substitution
Authors: Siggel Eckhard
Published: July 2012

In this paper it is argued that the conventional estimation of production functions may be misleading for the study of technological progress and technology choice in developing countries. The analysis of technical progress and technology transfers requires empirical production functions which should reflect accurately the state of technology and productivity in a given country or region. The neoclassical production function embracing as an envelope all observations in an industry is likely to overstate the number of techniques already established in the region. It may therefore underestimate the technical progress achieved by further transfers. The problem lies in the very concept of technological progress which is defined as a shift of the universal production function and excludes movements along the production isoquant.

As to the choice of technology the estimation of the elasticity of substitution may be equally misleading for the purpose of predicting changes of factor use caused by factor price changes. The substitution possibilites between factors of production in the actually existing choice set of techniques for a given country or region are better described by the concept of a technology shelf. Two important characteristics of the technology shelf are the range and density of substitution. It is argued that industrial engineering information should be used to better describe the technology shelf. In its empirical part, using data of the manufacturing sector of Zaire, the paper shows how such engineering information may be used to estimate the range and density of substitution.
Progrès technologique et structure industrielle régionale (un résumé de la littérature récente)
Authors: Martin Fernand
Published: July 2012

Technological progress has two main regional implications: (a) to create employment out of technological progress, local generation of innovations is not essential; all that counts is access to innovation. Consequently, the relationship between local R. & D. and regional economic performance (measured by jobs created) is very variable. At worst, local R. & D. can profit mainly other regions of the country. (b) Because of the workings of the product cycle, peripheral regions inherit periodically decentralizable portions of high technology industries which can use cheap non-specialized labour; they also inherit matured industries (which have reached a low level of technology). Ceterisparibus, initially, the workings of the product cycle tend not to favour these regions in terms of technology.
Investissements américains directs et compétitivité technologique européenne
Authors: Dunning John H. , Cantwell John A.
Published: July 2012

This paper examines the impact of US firms on technological competitiveness in Europe between 1955-75 through a dynamic application of the eclectic theory of international trade and production. It looks at the improvement in the trading performance of European countries, and finds that in certain larger countries and sectors that indigenous firms also improved their position. This is further found to be related to the transfer of technology from the US to Europe, and its diffusion to European firms where this has taken place.
Les entreprises innovatrices et leur performance dans le domaine de l’exportation
Authors: Hanel Petr , Palda Kristian
Published: July 2012

The analysis presentd in this paper aim at determining to what degree the R & D activity of a firm contributes to its propensity to export, considering the other potential factors that might influence its international competitiveness. This analysis is based on data resulting from a recent investigation on innovation made by De MeIto for the Economic Council of Canada.
Les sources de la détérioration de la position relative des jeunes et des femmes sur le marché du travail au Québec
Authors: Guindon Denis
Published: July 2012

This study analyzes the causes of unemployment fluctuations in Quebec since 1962 according to age and sex. The author distinguishes between the cyclical and structural component of unemployment rates. Referring to the expansionary peak of 1966, he establishes that 50% of the rise in the female unemployment rate is of structural matter, whereas 80% of the rise in the youth unemployment rate comes from the demand deficiency.

The structural factors appear in two groups of variables: the socio-demographic variables (the baby boom and the rise in the female participation rate) and the policy variables which include the generosity index of the unemployment insurance program, the relative minimum wage, and the relative earnings in the public and parapublic sector. This study shows that the policy factors have played a prominent part inside the structural component of unemployment rates during the 70's, especially for young men. Nearly 60% of the increase in the global structural unemployment rate since 1962 has been attributed to the government policies analyzed in this study, and nearly 30% has been issued solely from the government wage policy.

For the author, the most important step to jump in order to improve the employment situation in Quebec remains the elimination of the three percentage points of purely cyclical unemployment that persisted in 1980 and 1981 (7 to 9 in 1982). The second one would be to bring back the average earnings in the public and parapublic sector closer to the average earnings in the private sector. The introduction of these policies coupled with the demographic forecast of StatisticsCanada would give a better employment surrounding for youth, but would only slow down the increase in the female unemployment rates.
Un modèle économétrique de l’économie canadienne pendant l’entre-deux-guerres
Authors: Racette Daniel
Published: July 2012

Even though the Canadian Great Depression was one of the worst in the Western World, there are no recent articles where the phenomenon is analyzed as a whole. In this paper, the Interwar business cycles are analyzed in the context of amacroeconomic model with monthly data. The model features the specification of the money supply process, of the balance of payments and of the interaction between these variables.

The results of estimation of the model indicate that Canada followed the US in its depression because it adhered too closely to the rules of the GoId Standard. Canada should have depreciated its currency at least to the extent of the depreciation of the pound sterling with respect to the US dollar. The results also indicate that the Finance Act did not play the important role that was assigned to it in the literature (Courchene, 1969).
Une mesure composite du risque des prêts hypothécaires
Authors: Chung Joseph , To Minh Chau , Thrin Minh Anh
Published: July 2012

In this study, a cardinal and continuous measure of the default risk of mortgage loans is proposed, in departure from past studies where that risk was measured by dichotomous or categorical variables. The cardinal and continuous measure of risk is obtained by use of the canonical factor analytic technique. The unique factor of risk is a linear combination of the rate of return on equity, of the break-even rental income and of the vacancy rate of the property, and also of the relative term of the mortgage loans. It is found that the default risk of mortgage loans is well explained by the attributes of the property and of the neighbourhood, as well as by the location and the mortgage ratio. Furthermore, the buyer seems to incur hidden transaction costs which increase his risk level over that observed of the seller.
Dans un système fédéral le gouvernement central doit-il essayer d’imposer l’harmonisation fiscale?
Authors: Bélanger Gérard
Published: July 2012

After an examination of the various forms of income tax sharing in federal countries, the paper summarizes the arguments in favour of fiscal harmonization and the means of achieving it. Finally it raises objections to both the objective of fiscal harmonization and the need to impose it.

Imposed harmonization appears to be a source of monopolization that increases the discretionary power of the public sector over the citizen by facilitating tax collection. It works against economic efficiency which requires preserving the onerous character of taxation. However, harmonization may simply be the spontaneous result of the desire of government to minimize the inefficiency costs of their taxes. For example, regional governments avoid excessive differentiations in corporate taxes to avoid scaring off business.
Une fonction translog de demande d’importation : le cas de la France
Authors: Apostolakis Bobby
Published: July 2012

Cet article constitue une première tentative pour étudier la manière dont les importations interagissent avec les facteurs primaires dans la technologie française. Nous faisons usage d’une fonction de coût transcendantale à deux extrants et trois intrants, et nous rejetons les fonctions traditionnelles en raison de leur inaptitude à expliquer le processus de production. Nous concluons que la valeur ajoutée n’est pas le produit exclusif du capital et du travail et que tous les intrants sont des substituts l’un pour l’autre. Le modèle justifie le traitement des importations comme facteurs de production.
Bilinguisme, langue dominante et réseaux d’information
Authors: Lavoie Marc
Published: July 2012

L’auteur présente et critique l’approche économique traditionnelle de la langue telle qu’on la retrouve chez Albert Breton et Jean-Luc Migué, et implicitement chez H. G. Johnson. Il souligne les conditions extrêmement restrictives qui sont implicites à ces analyses et qui sont contradictoires avec le monde réel et la réalité canadienne. L’auteur tente de démontrer que cette approche peut conduire à des conclusions toutes différentes des conclusions généralement présentées en admettant des postulats plus proches de la réalité.
Notes sur l’information culturelle et sur les industries culturelles dans une optique proprement économique
Authors: Roy Pierre
Published: July 2012

Il s’agit, dans un premier temps, de caractériser et de situer la notion d’industrie culturelle dans le domaine plus vaste du message culturel, lui-même un sous-ensemble du champ encore plus vaste de l’information dans le secteur tertiaire de l’économie. Nous insistons ensuite sur l’opportunité d’une politique des industries culturelles qui puisse s’intégrer dans le cadre d’une politique globale et cohérente pour le Québec, face aux énormes pouvoirs culturels que détiennent les multinationales de la culture. Or, force est de constater que les données officielles de la comptabilité nationale sont peu ou pas du tout adaptées à ce champ d’activité qui, au surplus, subit une profonde mutation, imputable à la révolution technologique en cours, notamment dans le domaine de la micro-informatique.
Les modèles de répartition des revenus de type intégré : quelques éléments de comparaison
Authors: Mayer Francine
Published: July 2012

The purpose of this paper is to examine different types of models dealingwith the question of income distribution. These models can be classified into threecategories: microsimulation models, computable general equilibrium models andintegrated macro-distribution models. In this study, we are concerned with theinvestigation of a few models of each type, the analysis of their essential characteristics and the description of their comparative advantages and disadvantages.
Quelques perspectives de la conjoncture au cours des prochaines années (revues et corrigées)
Authors: Rabeau Yves
Published: July 2012

In this paper, we examine some of the factors that will have a major effect onthe economic cycle in the next few years. In particular, the impact of deflation,energy prices, capital costs and government deficits on income and expendituresbehaviour is discussed.
La désaisonnalisation pour le non-spécialiste
Authors: Cholette Pierre A.
Published: July 2012

This paper provides simple descriptions and interpretations of the components found in time series: the trend, the cycle, the seasonal, the trading-day and the irregular components. Furthermore, the necessity and the justification ofseasonal adjustment are explained. It is however reminded the seasonally adjusted series should not be used for model building.
L’accroissement naturel de la population catholique québécoise avant 1850 : aperçus historiographiques et quantitatifs
Authors: Ouellet Fernand
Published: July 2012

The author presents a critical evaluation of the different estimates of birth, death, and marriage rates in French Canada before 1850. He examines critically the sensitivity of these estimates to changes in the nature of the prevailing conceptual framework. In particular, the impact of the 'natalist' tradition and of the 'demographic transition hypothesis' on these estimates is noted.
Le système financier bas-canadien au tournant du XIXe siècle
Authors: Paquet Gilles , Wallot Jean-Pierre
Published: July 2012

This paper examines the evolution of the Canadian financial system from its embryonic form in New France to its modern contours in the first half of the 19th century. It is argued that the financial sub-system as a social technology experienced a mutation at the turn of the 19th century, as the result of unintended consequence of a combination of external, internal, and policy forces.
Les sociétés de construction au Canada avant 1867 : préliminaires à une analyse
Authors: Moscovitch Allan
Published: July 2012

The author examines the forces that led to the creation of building societies in Canada. The rationale, functions and evolution of these credit institutions are examined through the experience of the Canada Permanent.
Le gouvernement du Québec et les milieux financiers de 1867 à 1920
Authors: Vallières Marc
Published: July 2012

The author examines critically the financial needs of the Quebec Government between Confederation and the 1920s. He examines the negotiations between the government and the financial syndicates over the long term financial needs of the government. The impact of the short term financial needs of the government on its medium and long term financing is analyzed. The unique and powerful position of the Bank of Montreal is explained.
La Banque du Canada était-elle nécessaire?
Authors: Chisholm Derek
Published: July 2012

Traditional historiography has inferred that the Canadian government has failed to exercise control over the issue of high powered money during the interwar gold standard period. From this, it was concluded that the Canadian monetary constitution required modifications through the establishment of a central bank. This paper provides new evidence that the Canadian government did exercise monetary control during the period of the interwar gold standard regime and that Canada's record of adherence to the gold standard rules compares favourably with the performance of several other countries.
Séparation, annexion, et fédéralisme : au-delà des préceptes normatifs usuels
Authors: Carter Richard
Published: July 2012

The author uses a Public Choice approach to analyze the evolution of the political structures of Canadian society and the options facing Canadian society today. The insights provided by a positive approach as opposed to the traditional normative approach are discussed. The records of economic and political history are used to validate the insights provided by this economic approach.
Les exportations canadiennes de marchandises : analyse préliminaire des mécanismes de survie
Authors: Lande Eric
Published: July 2012

Theoretically, devaluations and revaluations should modify the market price of traded goods, but market structure may influence this process and have a determining impact on the nature of the trade flows. Market structure forces are shown to have the potential to be able to neutralize the expected effects of devaluations and revaluations on a country's trade balance. This is shown to be a Canadian problem dating back to the 18th and 19th centuries that may force Canada to look for other policies to influence the flow of traded goods and its balance of trade.
Un modèle de production et une méthode d’analyse des coûts de l’enseignement universitaire
Authors: Lemelin André
Published: July 2012

La thèse avancée dans cet essai est qu’il est possible et nécessaire d’analyser de façon détaillée et cohérente les dépenses des universités. Une telle analyse devrait se fonder sur un modèle de production. Dans le modèle proposé ici, la production résulte du fonctionnement coordonné de multiples activités. La structure de ces activités fonctionnelles s’incarne dans l’organisation administrative et se reflète dans le plan comptable du formulaire financier de fonctionnement de la D.G.E.S. Cette banque de données, si on lui adjoignait un logiciel approprié, constituerait dès maintenant un outil opérationnel d’analyse des coûts, en attendant qu’on construise le modèle.
La mobilité des patients et les modèles de création de demande : le cas du Québec
Authors: Contandriopoulos A. P. , Dionne G. , Tessier G.
Published: July 2012

Dans ce texte nous analysons les conséquences de l’inégalité dans la distribution des ressources médicales sur l’utilisation des interventions chirurgicales électives en tenant compte de la mobilité des patients. Après avoir présenté un modèle théorique qui permet d’analyser l’influence de la mobilité des patients dans un marché privé d’interventions chirurgicales, nous adaptons ce modèle à un contexte d’assurance-maladie généralisée. Dans la partie empirique de notre travail nous discutons brièvement des principaux résultats que l’on retrouve dans la littérature et nous présentons quelques résultats empiriques préliminaires en utilisant des données du Québec.
L’aide sociale et le supplément au revenu de travail : une simulation économique des revenus (salaires) de réserve
Authors: Allie Émile , Lefebvre Pierre
Published: July 2012

Le but de cet article est d’analyser l’efficacité du système québécois de soutien du revenu défini par les programmes d’aide sociale (A.S.) et de supplément au revenu de travail (S.R.T.). Au plan socio-économique le travail montre qu’il faut imputer l’augmentation des bénéficiaires, aptes au travail, émergeant du principal programme de soutien du revenu (l’A.S.), à une structure inefficace de paramètres compte tenu des variables d’environnement économique. Cette conclusion s’appuie au plan scientifique sur le concept de salaire (revenu) de réserve, défini rigoureusement et généralisé pour tenir compte des coûts directs et indirects du travail. L’étude présente les différents salaires (revenus) de réserve associés à l’A.S. et au S.R.T. et leur sensibilité aux variations des paramètres des mêmes programmes.
Des observations empiriques encourageantes pour la théorie dualiste
Authors: Breslaw J. A. , Smith J. B.
Published: July 2012

De récents résultats empiriques suggèrent que les caractéristiques estimées des technologies de production dépendent du modèle postulé (primal ou dual). Dans cet article nous nous intéressons à ce problème. Nous concluons que de différences significatives n’existent pas en ce qui concerne les données de Bell Canada.
Une étude sélective des mesures de bien-être d’un individu
Authors: Laferrière Richard
Published: July 2012

This paper begins by presenting several well-known measures for a welfare variation of an individual following a change of prices and/or income. Then we discuss the computation of some of these measures and show some procedures which appeared recently in the literature. We also propose an extension of the Hausman's paper. The last section points out the roles of the compensating and equivalent variations. Throughout the paper we use a numerical example for illustrating purposes.
Élasticité de la demande de logement au Canada
Authors: Lapointe Alain , Moisan Hugues
Published: July 2012

L’estimation des élasticités de la demande de logement a été l’objet d’un nombre important d’articles tant au Canada qu’aux États-Unis. Cet intérêt a été entretenu principalement par l’écart des résultats observé d’une étude à l’autre et par la diversité des problèmes économétriques à laquelle conduit ce genre d’estimation. Le présent article, tout en poussant l’investigation un peu plus loin, a l’avantage d’utiliser un échantillon de données individuelles dans les deux plus grandes zones métropolitaines au Canada : Montréal et Toronto. De plus, la spécification du modèle incorpore une variable prix obtenue à partir de l’estimation d’une fonction de prix hédonique.

L’article fait d’abord la revue des principaux problèmes économétriques que soulève ce genre d’estimation, et présente ensuite la spécification du modèle finalement retenue aux fins de l’estimateur. Nos résultats montrent que le biais dans l’élasticité-revenu consécutif à l’exclusion de la variable prix dans l’équation de demande est relativement faible par rapport à celui qu’entraînerait une mesure inappropriée du revenu ou encore des dépenses de logement.
Antécédents familiaux et revenu de travail des hommes québécois
Authors: Vaillancourt François , Payette Micheline
Published: July 2012

Ce texte se divise en trois parties. Dans la première partie, on y présente le modèle de forme structurelle à quatre équations retenu pour expliquer les revenus des hommes québécois en 1978. Les variables dépendantes sont le revenu de travail, le nombre de semaines travaillées, le niveau de scolarité et le bilinguisme. Dans la seconde partie on présente l’échantillon de 3 576 hommes tiré d’une enquête du Conseil de la langue française. Dans la troisième partie du texte on présente les résultats de l’estimation du modèle à l’aide des M.C.O. et du probit. Les résultats concordent avec nos attentes.
La multinationalisation des pétrolières canadiennes
Authors: Niosi Jorge
Published: July 2012

Canadian foreign direct investment in the oil and gaz industry has been growing at a very rapid pace during the seventies and early eighties. Traditionnally oriented towards the United States, it is now flowring towards the United Kingdom and other North Sea Countries, the Mediterranean, Indonesia and Australia. Increasing oil prices and profits, mainly in international operations, explain the growth of many Canadian independent. These international firms are not already truly multinationals: they produce oil and/or gaz in two to four countries, but the extent of their exploration and development activities is leading them towards a more global activity.

The article is organized into three sections. In the first section the patterns of ownership and control in the Canadian industry is shown, including the emergence of local companies and the "Canadianization" process of the seventies; in the second one, the multinational expansion of Canadian firms is analyzed using agregate data; in the final section the main results are summarized and some forecasts are made on the future evolution of Canada emerging oil multinationals.
Une analyse microéconomique des déterminants des transferts linguistiques des minorités hors-Québec en 1971
Authors: Grenier Gilles
Published: July 2012

À l’aide d’un modèle de régression probit, cet article analyse les facteurs qui déterminent les transferts vers l’anglais comme langue d’usage des familles d’origines canadienne-française, italienne, allemande et ukrainienne vivant au Canada à l’extérieur du Québec. Les résultats indiquent que, à l’exception du mariage à l’extérieur de la communauté linguistique qui est fortement relié aux transferts linguistiques pour tous les groupes, il y a des différences importantes entre les familles canadiennes-françaises et celles d’autres origines dans le processus qui détermine ces transferts. Chez les familles canadiennes-françaises, les facteurs les plus significatifs sont la région de résidence et la profession du mari, où on observe que les familles dont le mari est professionnel ont plus tendance à utiliser le français. Chez les autres groupes, les facteurs les plus significatifs sont le nombre d’années au Canada, la présence d’enfants et l’éducation du mari, où on observe que les familles dont le mari est plus éduqué ont plus tendance à utiliser l’anglais.
Le modèle scandinave et l’économie canadienne
Authors: Decaluwé Bernard
Published: July 2012

En vue de rendre compte des mécanismes de transmission de l’inflation au Canada, notre étude applique une distinction entre les industries abritées et les industries exposées. Ces dernières sont soumises à une forte concurrence de leurs compétiteurs étrangers, alors que les industries abritées en sont préservées. Les critères de classification des branches exposées et abritées sont présentés dans la deuxième section de l’article, tandis que dans la section 3, nous discutons du mode de construction et l’évolution des principales variables macro-sectorielles. La section finale traite des équations du modèle et présente les résultats des estimations économétriques.
Interprétations de la corrélation éducation-revenu
Authors: Lemelin Clément
Published: July 2012

Better education means higher income. This correlation remains undisputed in the economics of education. Such is not the case for the meaning to be given to it. Why do better educated people earn more? Following Mark Blaug, various explanations are regrouped around three headings, economic, sociological and psychological interpretations, and they are briefly described. It is very difficult to choose among them since the questions they try to answer quite often differ. However, more recent work attempts to operate a synthesis by witholding some of the more fruitful elements of these various interpretations.
La Grande dépression américaine et la neutralité de la monnaie : un test économétrique
Authors: Racette Daniel , Bergeron Pierre
Published: July 2012

Dans ce texte, nous utilisons des données de la période de l’entre-deux-guerres aux États-Unis pour vérifier l’hypothèse de la neutralité de la monnaie. Dans l’ensemble, nos résultats démontrent que l’hypothèse de la neutralité est rejetée par les données même dans le cas où l’on élimine la variable de faillites bancaires du domaine de l’information disponible dans l’équation d’anticipation de la monnaie. Ces résultats vont donc à l’encontre de ceux obtenus pour l’après-guerre par Barro (1977, 1978) et Barro et Rush (1980) mais vont dans le sens de ceux de Mishkin (1982).
Les Canadiens français dans la ligue nationale de hockey : une analyse statistique
Authors: Boucher Michel
Published: July 2012

Cet article pose le problème que soulève la présence des Canadiens français dans la Ligue nationale de hockey (LNH). Comme l’habileté à parler l’anglais couramment doit être considérée comme nécessaire à un joueur canadien-français, ce dernier doit investir en formation générale en cours d’emploi. C’est le francophone unilingue et non l’équipe de hockey qui assumera le coût de ce type de formation générale. Par conséquent, le Canadien français joue en-deçà de ses capacités au cours des premières années de sa carrière professionnelle. Pour vérifier cette hypothèse, nous développons un modèle de la détermination des salaires des joueurs de hockey de la LNH dont les variables considérées sont un indice de performance, une variable quadratique qui reflète l’expérience et une variable d’interaction entre l’expérience et la performance. Nous démontrons par une analyse de régression qui s’appuie sur des données pour l'année 1977-78 que les joueurs francophones assument le coût de leur investissement en capital humain pour être aussi productifs que les joueurs de langue anglaise. En effet, les équipes y substituent un indice de performance courante pour le critère de performance à vie par partie. Finalement, nos résultats laissent entrevoir que la détermination des salaires des francophones des Canadiens de Montréal, n’ayant pas à investir en anglais, et des franco-Canadiens, déjà bilingues, est différente de celle utilisée pour les Canadiens français unilingues. Toutefois, la différence n’est pas statistiquement significative.
Un modèle analytique des transferts de technologie
Authors: Henner Henri-F.
Published: July 2012

This study deals with international technology transfers. A theoretical and analytical model is presented as well as applications to real international economic problems. In the first part the author reminds the Ricardian model with a continuous of goods. In the second part, the model is applied to the study of technology transfers and an attempt is made to deal with endogeneous technological change using Pugel's approach. In the last part, the model is applied to the following questions: free technology transfer, the choice of an appropriate technology, the relation between wage rate and technology transfers.
Les perspectives d’emploi au Canada
Authors: Sauvé Pierre-Alain
Published: July 2012

Pierre-Alain Sauvé rapporte d’abord les prévisions du Conference Board du Canada sur la persistance de hauts niveaux de chômage en moyenne période. Il y joint quelques considérations utiles sur le lien entre productivité et emploi et sur les différences entre la situation canadienne et la situation américaine.
Les effets du changement du taux de salaire dans un état de chômage keynésien avec rationnement stochastique
Authors: Weinrich Gerd
Published: July 2012

L’effet d’un accroissement du taux de salaire sur l’emploi et la production lorsqu’on se trouve dans un état de chômage keynésien a été analysé par Malinvaud (1977). Dans cette analyse, il suppose un schéma de rationnement déterministe. Nous remplaçons ici cette hypothèse par celle d’un rationnement stochastique. Les propositions de transaction peuvent alors excéder les transactions réelles, cet écart donnant une mesure du déséquilibre. Les producteurs peuvent alors réagir au changement du taux de salaire et cet effet de substitution peut dominer l’effet-revenu. En fait, nous prouvons qu’une augmentation du taux de salaire déprime l’emploi même si elle favorise une hausse du niveau de transactions des marchandises.