bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A Blended Electronic Illness Management and Recovery Program for People With Severe Mental Illness: Qualitative Process Evaluation Alongside a Randomized Controlled Trial
Authors: Beentjes Titus A A , van Gaal Betsie G I , Vermeulen Hester , Nijhuis-van der Sanden Maria W G , Goossens Peter J J
Published: October 2020

Background

We conducted a trial to test the electronic Illness Management and Recovery (e-IMR) intervention to provide conclusions on the potential efficacy of eHealth for people with severe mental illness (SMI). In the e-IMR intervention, we used the standard IMR program content and methodology and combined face-to-face sessions with internet-based strategies on the constructed e-IMR internet platform. During the trial, the e-IMR platform was sparsely used.

Objective

This study aimed to evaluate the added value of the e-IMR intervention and the barriers and facilitators that can explain the low use of the e-IMR platform.

Methods

This process evaluation was designed alongside a multicenter, cluster randomized controlled trial. In this study, we included all available participants and trainers from the intervention arm of the trial. Baseline characteristics were used to compare users with nonusers. Qualitative data were gathered at the end of the semistructured interviews. Using theoretical thematic analyses, the data were analyzed deductively using a pre-existing coding frame.

Results

Out of 41 eligible participants and 14 trainers, 27 participants and 11 trainers were interviewed. Of the 27 participants, 10 were identified as users. eHealth components that had added value were the persuasive nature of the goal-tracking sheets, monitoring, and the peer testimonials, which had the potential to enhance group discussions and disclosure by participants. The low use of the e-IMR platform was influenced by the inflexibility of the platform, the lack of information technology (IT) resources, the group context, participants’ low computer skills and disabilities, and the hesitant eHealth attitude of the trainers.

Conclusions

The extent of eHealth readiness and correlations with vulnerabilities in persons with SMI need further investigation. This study shows that flexible options were needed for the use of e-IMR components and that options should be provided only in response to a participant’s need. Use of the e-IMR intervention in the future is preconditioned by checking the available IT resources (such as tablets for participants) providing computer or internet guidance to participants outside the group sessions, evaluating the eHealth attitude and skills of trainers, and tailoring eHealth training to increase the skills of future e-IMR trainers.

Trial Registration

Netherlands Trial Register NTR4772; https://www.trialregister.nl/trial/4621

International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID)

RR2-10.1186/s12913-016-1267-z
Analysis of Scientific Publications During the Early Phase of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Topic Modeling Study
Authors: Älgå Andreas , Eriksson Oskar , Nordberg Martin
Published: October 2020

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has spread at an alarming speed, and effective treatment for the disease is still lacking. The body of evidence on COVID-19 has been increasing at an impressive pace, creating the need for a method to rapidly assess the current knowledge and identify key information. Gold standard methods such as systematic reviews and meta-analyses are regarded unsuitable because they have a narrow scope and are very time consuming.

Objective

This study aimed to explore the published scientific literature on COVID-19 and map the research evolution during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods

We performed a PubMed search to analyze the titles, keywords, and abstracts of published papers on COVID-19. We used latent Dirichlet allocation modeling to extract topics and conducted a trend analysis to understand the temporal changes in research for each topic, journal impact factor (JIF), and geographic origin.

Results

Based on our search, we identified 16,670 relevant articles dated between February 14, 2020, and June 1, 2020. Of these, 6 articles were reports from peer-reviewed randomized trials on patients with COVID-19. We identified 14 main research topics, of which the most common topics were health care responses (2812/16,670, 16.86%) and clinical manifestations (1828/16,670, 10.91%). We found an increasing trend for research on clinical manifestations and protective measures and a decreasing trend for research on disease transmission, epidemiology, health care response, and radiology. Publications on protective measures, immunology, and clinical manifestations were associated with the highest JIF. The overall median JIF was 3.7 (IQR 2.6-5.9), and we found that the JIF for these publications declined over time. The top countries producing research were the United States, China, Italy, and the United Kingdom.

Conclusions

In less than 6 months since the novel coronavirus was first detected, a remarkably high number of research articles on COVID-19 have been published. Here, we discuss and present the temporal changes in the available COVID-19 research during the early phase of the pandemic. Our findings may aid researchers and policy makers to form a structured view of the current COVID-19 evidence base and provide further research directions.
COVID-19 Contact-Tracing Apps: Analysis of the Readability of Privacy Policies
Authors: Zhang Melvyn , Chow Aloysius , Smith Helen
Published: October 2020

Apps that enable contact-tracing are instrumental in mitigating the transmission of COVID-19, but there have been concerns among users about the data collected by these apps and their management. Contact tracing is of paramount importance when dealing with a pandemic, as it allows for rapid identification of cases based on the information collected from infected individuals about other individuals they may have had recent contact with. Advances in digital technology have enabled devices such as mobile phones to be used in the contract-tracing process. However, there is a potential risk of users’ personal information and sensitive data being stolen should hackers be in the near vicinity of these devices. Thus, there is a need to develop privacy-preserving apps. Meanwhile, privacy policies that outline the risk associated with the use of contact-tracing apps are needed, in formats that are easily readable and comprehensible by the public. To our knowledge, no previous study has examined the readability of privacy policies of contact-tracings apps. Therefore, we performed a readability analysis to evaluate the comprehensibility of privacy policies of 7 contact-tracing apps currently in use. The contents of the privacy policies of these apps were assessed for readability using Readability Test Tool, a free web-based reliability calculator, which computes scores based on a number of statistics (ie, word count and the number of complex words) and indices (ie, Flesch Reading Ease, Flesch-Kincaid Reading Grade Level, Gunning Fog Index, and Simplified Measure of Gobbledygook index). Our analysis revealed that explanations used in the privacy policies of these apps require a reading grade between 7 and 14, which is considerably higher than the reading ability of the average individual. We believe that improving the readability of privacy policies of apps could be potentially reassuring for users and may help facilitate the increased use of such apps.
Physical Distancing Measures and Walking Activity in Middle-aged and Older Residents in Changsha, China, During the COVID-19 Epidemic Period: Longitudinal Observational Study
Authors: Wang Yilun , Zhang Yuqing , Bennell Kim , White Daniel Kenta , Wei Jie , Wu Ziying , He Hongyi , Liu Shaohui , Luo Xianghang , Hu Shuo , Zeng Chao , Lei Guanghua
Published: October 2020

Background

Physical distancing measures taken to contain COVID-19 transmission may substantially reduce physical activity levels and cause individuals to adopt a more sedentary lifestyle.

Objective

The objective of this study is to determine if there was any change in daily steps, an important component of daily physical activity, and examine risk factors for frequent low daily steps during the COVID-19 epidemic.

Methods

We used data collected from the Step Study, a population-based longitudinal study of walking activity among residents aged ≥40 years in Changsha, China. Daily steps were collected via a smartphone linked to WeChat, a social networking platform. We plotted mean daily steps and the prevalence of low daily steps (≤1500 steps/day) 30 days before (reference period) and 30 days after (epidemic period) January 21, 2020 (date of the first COVID-19 case diagnosed in Changsha), and compared it with the same corresponding period from 2019. We examined the association of risk factors with the prevalence of frequent low daily steps (≤1500 steps/day for ≥14 days) using logistic regression.

Results

Among 3544 participants (mean age 51.6 years; n=1226 females, 34.6%), mean daily steps dropped from 8097 to 5440 and the prevalence of low daily steps increased from 3% (2287/76,136 person-day) to 18.5% (12,951/70,183 person-day) during the reference and epidemic periods, respectively. No such phenomenon was observed during the corresponding period in 2019. Older age (P for interaction=.001) and female sex (P for interaction<.001) were both associated with a higher prevalence of frequent low daily steps and were more pronounced during the epidemic period. More education was associated with a lower prevalence of frequent low daily steps during the reference period but not the epidemic period (P for interaction=.34). Body mass index or comorbidity were not associated with frequent low daily steps during either period.

Conclusions

Daily steps of Changsha residents aged ≥40 years dropped significantly during the COVID-19 period, especially among older adults and females. Although successful physical distancing, measured by the rapid downward trend in daily step counts of residents, played a critical role in the containment of the COVID-19 epidemic, our findings of an increase in the prevalence of frequent low daily steps raise concerns about unintended effects on physical activity.
Prognostic Assessment of COVID-19 in the Intensive Care Unit by Machine Learning Methods: Model Development and Validation
Authors: Pan Pan , Li Yichao , Xiao Yongjiu , Han Bingchao , Su Longxiang , Su Mingliang , Li Yansheng , Zhang Siqi , Jiang Dapeng , Chen Xia , Zhou Fuquan , Ma Ling , Bao Pengtao , Xie Lixin
Published: October 2020

Background

Patients with COVID-19 in the intensive care unit (ICU) have a high mortality rate, and methods to assess patients’ prognosis early and administer precise treatment are of great significance.

Objective

The aim of this study was to use machine learning to construct a model for the analysis of risk factors and prediction of mortality among ICU patients with COVID-19.

Methods

In this study, 123 patients with COVID-19 in the ICU of Vulcan Hill Hospital were retrospectively selected from the database, and the data were randomly divided into a training data set (n=98) and test data set (n=25) with a 4:1 ratio. Significance tests, correlation analysis, and factor analysis were used to screen 100 potential risk factors individually. Conventional logistic regression methods and four machine learning algorithms were used to construct the risk prediction model for the prognosis of patients with COVID-19 in the ICU. The performance of these machine learning models was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Interpretation and evaluation of the risk prediction model were performed using calibration curves, SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), Local Interpretable Model-Agnostic Explanations (LIME), etc, to ensure its stability and reliability. The outcome was based on the ICU deaths recorded from the database.

Results

Layer-by-layer screening of 100 potential risk factors finally revealed 8 important risk factors that were included in the risk prediction model: lymphocyte percentage, prothrombin time, lactate dehydrogenase, total bilirubin, eosinophil percentage, creatinine, neutrophil percentage, and albumin level. Finally, an eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model established with the 8 important risk factors showed the best recognition ability in the training set of 5-fold cross validation (AUC=0.86) and the verification queue (AUC=0.92). The calibration curve showed that the risk predicted by the model was in good agreement with the actual risk. In addition, using the SHAP and LIME algorithms, feature interpretation and sample prediction interpretation algorithms of the XGBoost black box model were implemented. Additionally, the model was translated into a web-based risk calculator that is freely available for public usage.

Conclusions

The 8-factor XGBoost model predicts risk of death in ICU patients with COVID-19 well; it initially demonstrates stability and can be used effectively to predict COVID-19 prognosis in ICU patients.
Patients’ Adoption of Electronic Personal Health Records in England: Secondary Data Analysis (Preprint)
Authors: Abd-Alrazaq Alaa , Alalwan Ali Abdallah , McMillan Brian , Bewick Bridgette M , Househ Mowafa , AL-Zyadat Alaa T
Published: October 2020

BACKGROUND

In England, almost all general practices (GPs) have implemented GP online services such as electronic personal health records (ePHRs) that allow people to schedule appointments, request repeat prescriptions, and access parts of their medical records. The overall adoption rate of GP online services has been low, reaching just 28% in October 2019. In a previous study, Abd-Alrazaq et al adopted a model to assess the factors that influence patients’ use of GP online services in England. According to the previous literature, the predictive power of the Abd-Alrazaq model could be improved by proposing new associations between the existing variables in the model.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to improve the predictive power of the Abd-Alrazaq model by proposing new relationships between the existing variables in the model.

METHODS

The Abd-Alrazaq model was amended by proposing new direct, mediating, moderating, and moderated mediating effects. The amended model was examined using data from a previous study, which were collected by a cross-sectional survey of a convenience sample of 4 GPs in West Yorkshire, England. Structural equation modeling was used to examine the theoretical model and hypotheses.

RESULTS

The new model accounted for 53% of the variance in performance expectancy (PE), 76% of the variance in behavioral intention (BI), and 49% of the variance in use behavior (UB). In addition to the significant associations found in the previous study, this study found that social influence (SI) and facilitating conditions (FCs) are associated with PE directly and BI indirectly through PE. The association between BI and UB was stronger for younger women with higher levels of education, income, and internet access. The indirect effects of effort expectancy (EE), perceived privacy and security (PPS), and SI on BI were statistically stronger for women without internet access, patients with internet access, and patients without internet access, respectively. The indirect effect of PPS on BI was stronger for patients with college education or diploma than for those with secondary school education and lower, whereas the indirect effect of EE on BI was stronger for patients with secondary school education or lower than for those with college education or a diploma.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive power of the Abd-Alrazaq model improved by virtue of new significant associations that were not examined before in the context of ePHRs. Further studies are required to validate the new model in different contexts and to improve its predictive power by proposing new variables. The influential factors found in this study should be considered to improve patients’ use of ePHRs.
Brain Tumor Discussions on Twitter (#BTSM): Social Network Analysis (Preprint)
Authors: Feliciano Josemari T , Salmi Liz , Blotner Charlie , Hayden Adam , Nduom Edjah K , Kwan Bethany M , Katz Matthew S , Claus Elizabeth B
Published: October 2020

BACKGROUND

The Brain Tumor Social Media (#BTSM) Twitter hashtag was founded in February 2012 as a disease-specific hashtag for patients with brain tumor.

OBJECTIVE

To understand #BTSM’s role as a patient support system, we describe user descriptors, growth, interaction, and content sharing.

METHODS

We analyzed all tweets containing #BTSM from 2012 to 2018 using the Symplur Signals platform to obtain data and to describe Symplur-defined user categories, tweet content, and trends in use over time. We created a network plot with all publicly available retweets involving #BTSM in 2018 to visualize key stakeholders and their connections to other users.

RESULTS

From 2012 to 2018, 59,764 unique users participated in #BTSM, amassing 298,904 tweets. The yearly volume of #BTSM tweets increased by 264.57% from 16,394 in 2012 to 43,373 in 2018 with #BTSM constantly trending in the top 15 list of disease hashtags, as well the top 15 list of tweet chats. Patient advocates generated the most #BTSM tweets (33.13%), while advocacy groups, caregivers, doctors, and researchers generated 7.01%, 4.63%, 3.86%, and 3.37%, respectively. Physician use, although still low, has increased over time. The 2018 network plot of retweets including #BTSM identifies a number of key stakeholders from the patient advocate, patient organization, and medical researcher domains and reveals the extent of their reach to other users.

CONCLUSIONS

From its start in 2012, #BTSM has grown exponentially over time. We believe its growth suggests its potential as a global source of brain tumor information on Twitter for patients, advocates, patient organizations as well as health care professionals and researchers.
Using Digital Tools to Engage Patients With Psychosis and Their Families in Research: Survey Recruitment and Completion in an Early Psychosis Intervention Program (Preprint)
Authors: Polillo Alexia , Voineskos Aristotle N , Foussias George , Kidd Sean A , Sav Andreea , Hawley Steve , Soklaridis Sophie , Stergiopoulos Vicky , Kozloff Nicole
Published: October 2020

BACKGROUND

Barriers to recruiting and retaining people with psychosis and their families in research are well-established, potentially biasing clinical research samples. Digital research tools, such as online platforms, mobile apps, and text messaging, have the potential to address barriers to research by facilitating remote participation. However, there has been limited research on leveraging these technologies to engage people with psychosis and their families in research.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to assess the uptake of digital tools to engage patients with provisional psychosis and their families in research and their preferences for different research administration methods.

METHODS

This study used Research Electronic Data Capture (REDCap)—a secure web-based platform with built-in tools for data collection and storage—to send web-based consent forms and surveys on service engagement via text message or email to patients and families referred to early psychosis intervention services; potential participants were also approached or reminded about the study in person. We calculated completion rates and timing using remote and in-person methods and compensation preferences.

RESULTS

A total of 447 patients with provisional psychosis and 187 of their family members agreed to receive the web-based consent form, and approximately half of the patients (216/447, 48.3%) and family members (109/187, 58.3%) consented to participate in the survey. Most patients (182/229, 79.5%) and family members (75/116, 64.7%) who completed the consent form did so remotely, with more family members (41/116, 35.3%) than patients (47/229, 20.5%) completing it in person. Of those who consented, 77.3% (167/216) of patients and 72.5% (79/109) of family members completed the survey, and most did the survey remotely. Almost all patients (418/462, 90.5%) and family members (174/190, 91.6%) requested to receive the consent form and survey by email, and only 4.1% (19/462) and 3.2% (6/190), respectively, preferred text message. Just over half of the patients (91/167, 54.5%) and family members (42/79, 53.2%) preferred to receive electronic gift cards from a coffee shop as study compensation. Most surveys were completed on weekdays between 12 PM and 6 PM.

CONCLUSIONS

When offered the choice, most participants with psychosis and their families chose remote administration methods, suggesting that digital tools may enhance research recruitment and participation in this population, particularly in the context of the COVID-19 global pandemic.
Real-time Mental Health Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on College Students: Ecological Momentary Assessment Study (Preprint)
Authors: Kleiman Evan M , Yeager April L , Grove Jeremy L , Kellerman John K , Kim Joanne S
Published: October 2020

BACKGROUND

College students’ mental health may be disproportionally affected by the COVID-19 pandemic because of the abrupt shift off campus and subsequent loss of a social network and potential long-term impact on job prospects.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to assess the nature of COVID-19’s mental health impact among a sample of undergraduates who were experiencing the pandemic as it occurred in real time.

METHODS

In total, 140 college students completed smartphone-based ecological momentary assessments of anxiety and optimism related to COVID-19 and other generic mental health variables 6 times daily.

RESULTS

Participants completed >23,750 surveys. Overall, >75% of these surveys indicated at least some level of anxiety about COVID-19. On average, the proportion of responses each day at the highest levels of anxiety about COVID-19 was 7 times greater than the proportion of responses at the highest levels of non–COVID-19–specific anxiety. Structural change analyses indicated a significant downward trend in COVID-19 anxiety after the first week of June, but even at the lowest point, >15% of the participants in the sample still reported high levels of COVID-19 anxiety each day. Participants felt more anxious about COVID-19 on days when the number of new cases and deaths due to COVID-19 were higher. When participants felt anxious about COVID-19, they also felt sad, anxious (in general), and had a greater desire to drink and use drugs. Participants felt more optimistic about COVID-19 when they received more support from others and from their university.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrated the widespread mental health impact that COVID-19 has had on college students.
Digital health interventions in prevention, relapse and therapy of mild and moderate depression – a scoping review (Preprint)
Authors: Tokgöz Pinar , Hrynyschyn Robert , Hafner Jessica , Schönfeld Simone , Dockweiler Christoph
Published: October 2020

BACKGROUND

Depression is a major cause for disability worldwide and digital health interventions are expected to be a more augmentative and effective treatment. According to the fast-growing field of information and communication technologies and its dissemination, there is a need of mapping the technological landscape, as well as its benefits and challenges for users.

OBJECTIVE

A scoping review was conducted to provide a comprehensive overview in the field of digital health interventions for the treatment of depression. The purpose of this scoping review was to give an overview of the used DHI for depression. The main goal of this review was then to provide a comprehensive review of the system landscape and its technological state and functions, as well as its evidence and benefits for users.

METHODS

A scoping review was conducted to provide a comprehensive overview in the field of digital health interventions for the treatment of depression. PubMed, Psyndex, and Cochrane were searched by two independent researchers between May 2019 and April 2019 to identify relevant publications and were examined due to inclusion and exclusion criteria. For conducting the systematic review, ‘Rayyan’, a free web-tool, was used.

RESULTS

In total, 51 studies were included in the qualitative synthesis. After categorizing the field of application in prevention, early detection, therapy and relapse prevention, the search showed dominant numbers of studies in the field therapy (N= 42). There was only one prevention study, three studies for early detection and five studies for relapse prevention. Dominant measures of depression severity were the PHQ-9 or the BDI-II scale. The most dominant therapy approaches were cognitive behavior therapy, acceptance and commitment therapy and problem-solving therapy. Most of the studies revealed significant effects of digital health intervention when cognitive behavior therapy applied. cognitive behavior therapy as the most dominant form was often provided by web-based systems. Combined approaches consisting of web-based and smartphone-based approaches are constantly rising.

CONCLUSIONS

Digital health interventions for treating depression are quite comprehensive. There are different interventions focusing on different fields of care. While most applications can be beneficial to achieving a better care for depression patients, it can be hindering in determining which approaches in the depression care are suitable. Computerized CBT has shown good effects in the treatment of depression, but treatment for depression still stays very individualistic.
Characterizing River Baseflow Recession Using Linear Reservoir Model in Alang Watershed, Central Java, Indonesia
Authors: Latuamury Bokiraiya Okky , Parera Lydia Riekie , Marasabessy Husein
Published: October 2020

Alang is a sub-watershed emptying into the Gajah Mungkur Reservoir in Wonogiri, Central Java Indonesia, with an area of 51.01 km2 and lithology composed of Baturetno Formation and Wonosari Formation. Baseflow is a major component of river flow during the dry season. Hence, the characterization of its recession becomes necessary, and it can be performed with innovation in baseflow hydrological modeling, that is, the recession curve. This study was designed to describe the distinctive features of baseflow recession using a linear reservoir model, which is depicted in individual and master recession curves. The baseflow recession in AlangSubwatershed was represented by a combination of varying initial recession discharge (Q0), α, and recession constants (Krb). The individual recession curves were typified by Q0=0.19-9.11, α= 0.089-0.243, and Krb=0.7843-0.9148. As for the master recession curve, it had Q0=9.99, α=0.085, and Krb=0.928. These results signify a sloping recession curve, meaning that the water storage and aquifer characteristics that store and transmit water in Alang Subwatershed are in good condition.
Identification of the Main Water Quality Parameters for Monitoring and Evaluating Watershed Health
Authors: Susanti Pranatasari Dyah , Wahyuningrum Nining
Published: October 2020

Water quality is one of the crucial parameters in monitoring and evaluating watersheds. A large number of parameters causes the monitoring and evaluation of watershed performance to be less efficient and costly. This study aims to determine the main parameters as a method of simplifying water quality observation parameters by producing equations that can be used to predict the level of pollution of a non-point source pollutant (watershed). A sampling of surface water was carried out by purposive sampling at several outlets located in the Brantas and Upper Solo watersheds. The research parameters analysed were: TSS, TDS, BOD, COD, Phenol, Free Chlorineine, Sulfide, Arsenic, Fe, Pb, Phosphate, Nitrate, Nitrite, Detergent, Turbidity and E. Coli. The results of the analysis of water quality are used to calculate the value of the Pollution Index (PI) according to the Decree of the Minister of Environment No. 115 of 2003 and to determine the class of water quality standards that refer to Class III water quality standards, in Government Regulation No.82 of 2001. The analysis showed that all samples were at mild to moderate pollution levels, and did not meet class III water quality standards. Multiple regression analysis produced two equations, namely: Model 1: PI = 3.952 + 91.668 Phenol and Model 2: PI = 3.086 + 80.167 Phenol + 0.152 BOD, with R squared values of 53% and 69.9% with a confidence level of 0.005. Thus the prediction of pollution levels of similar watershed can be made only by using the two most influential parameters namely phenol and/or BOD alone.
Geographical Appraisal of Gender Disparity and Progress in Literacy of Haryana, India
Authors: Sharma Manju , Kumar Sandeep
Published: October 2020

The present research relates to the northern state of Haryana in India and to find out the objective of advancement and the existing gender gap in literacy with identification of responsible factors, the study uses the secondary data obtained from different censuses of India, National Crime Record Bureau and various other related sources. The disparity index is calculated to examine the gender gap in literacy whereas the correlation coefficient is used to ascertain its relationship with major determinants. Though the country and the state have achieved a reputed position with the literacy rate of 74.04 and 75.55 per cent respectively in 2011 yet inequality in the learning of male-female is a matter of concern for both entities. The figure for the district Mewat (which also lies at bottom in overall literacy as per ongoing census data) shows more discrimination in male-female learning, as here the male literacy rate is approximate to the double (69.97 per cent versus 36.60 per cent) of the females.  To some extent, in areas like Mewat, Palwal and Fatehabad this discrimination is an outcome of societal stances, religion, fiscal or ethnical determinants and cultural stereotype as these factors of the environs have a direct or indirect association with literacy. So to ensure the equality and quality in education in basic or compulsory education, there is a need for massive investment on resources with communal awareness regarding significance as well as claptrap obstacles in the way of the learning.
Simulation of Daily Rainfall Data using Articulated Weather Generator Model for Seasonal Prediction of ENSO-Affected Zones in Indonesia
Authors: Sekaranom Andung Bayu , Nurjani Emilya , Harini Rika , Muttaqin Andi Syahid
Published: October 2020

Synthetic rainfall simulation using weather generator models is commonly used as a substitute at locations with incomplete or short rainfall data. It incorporates a method that can be developed into forecasts of future rainfall. This study was designed to modify a rainfall prediction system based on the principles of weather generator models and to test the validity of the modelling results. It processed the data collected from eight rain stations in zones affected by El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). A large-scale predictor, that is, SST prediction data in the Nino 3.4 region over the Pacific Ocean was used as the influencing variable in projecting rainfall for the following six months after the predefined dates. Rainfall data from weather stations and SST in 1960-2000 were analyzed to identify the effects of ENSO and build a statistical model based on the regression function. Meanwhile, the model was validated using the data from 2001 to 2007 by backtesting six months in a row. The analysis results showed that the model could simulate both low rainfall in the dry season and high one in the rainy season. Validation by the student's t-test confirmed that the six-month synthetic rain data at nearly all observed stations was homogenous. For this reason, the developed model can be potentially used as one of the season prediction systems.
How Should Higher Education Institutions Provide Lectures Under the COVID-19 Crisis
Authors: Kurihara Yutaka
Published: October 2020

As the COVID-19 crisis prevails, many universities and colleges all over the world were not able to conduct face-to-face classes and instead conduct online learning. Online learning has merits and is evaluated by learners and university faculties. However, whether or not the learning quality of online learning improves or maintains should be evaluated. Furthermore, online learning without being face-to-face is different from flipped classroom. This paper examines how the quality of online learning changes empirically. The empirical results show that most of the results are not different from face-to-face class, and online quiz type test scores are quite high; however, the quality of reports (writing) has declined significantly. There is some possibility that surface knowledge improved by online learning of undergraduates, but in-depth learning by thinking or discussing with other learners and faculty are not realized.
Web-based decision aids to support breast cancer screening decisions: systematic review and meta-analysis
Authors: Yu Lin , Li Ping , Yang Shu , Guo Pingping , Zhang Xuehui , Liu Na , Wang Jie , Zhang Wei
Published: October 2020

Aim:
Breast cancer is a leading cause of cancer among women. Because guidelines on screening for breast cancer for certain ages are controversial, many experts advocate the use of shared decision making (SDM) using validated decision aids (DAs). Recent studies have concluded that DAs are beneficial; however, the results have great heterogeneity. Therefore, further studies are needed to improve understanding of these tools.
Objective:
This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to investigate the impact of using web-based DAs in women aged 50 years and below facing the decision to be screened for breast cancer in comparison with usual care.
Methods:
PubMed, Web of Science, Embase and the Cochrane CENTRAL databases were searched up to February 2020 for studies assessing web-based DAs for women making a breast cancer screening decision and reported quality of decision-making outcomes. Using a random-effects model or a fixed-effects model, meta-analyses were conducted pooling results using mean differences (MD), standardized mean differences (SMD) and relative risks (RR).
Results:
Of 1097 unique citations, three randomized controlled trials and two before–after studies met the study eligibility criteria. Compared with usual care, web-based DAs increased knowledge (SMD = 0.69; 95% CI: 0.57–0.80; p < 0.00001), reduced decision conflict and increased the proportion of women who made an informed choice (RR = 1.86; 95% CI: 1.38 to 2.50; p < 0.0001), but did not change the intention of women deciding to be screened or affect decision regret.
Conclusion:
This analysis showed the positive effect of web-based DAs on patient-centered outcomes in breast cancer screening. In the future, more internet devices and free or larger discount WI-FI should be established to ensure more women can benefit from this effective tool.
МЕМРИСТОРНЫЕ ЭЛЕМЕНТЫ С СЕГНЕТОЭЛЕКТРИЧЕСКИМИ НАНОКОМПОЗИЦИОННЫМИ КОМПОНЕНТАМИ
Authors: Черная Е.В. , Барышников С.В.
Published: October 2020

Рассматриваются физические основы работы мемристорных элементов с сегнетоэлектрическими компонентами. Анализируются сегнетоэлектрические материалы, перспективные для применения. Обсуждается возможность использования нанокомпозитов с органическими сегнетоэлектриками.
Reducing the Threat of Cyber Warfare Through a Suitable Dispute Resolution Mechanism
Authors: Khan Muhammad Asif
Published: October 2020

With each step of technological advancement, we are entering a global technological domain susceptible to cyber infiltration. The individual privacy and security are supposed to be protected by the states governed by laws that are specifically a part of the national legal systems. The transnational cyber infiltration targeting the state actors by using the cyberspace creates a new plethora of questions. The issue has been highly debated, whether the jus ad bellum is sufficient in regulating the various types of cyber infiltrations. The matter of classifying the cyber-attacks as armed attacks has been furtively debated on contextual basis. The legal principles governing the laws of war have been held insufficient by some in order to include the new forms of attacks conducted through global cyberspace. In the midst of such debate, one conclusion can be derived that the cyber operations globally are causing a threat to state sovereignty and security. The focus on issues related to transnational cyber operations is based upon the existing legal principles and laws. The debate conjures up a few problems which need to be addressed. This article analyses the different perspectives of the cyber warfare and the identified problems related with the issue. According to the current problems faced by the states, a measure of the remedial system for states in international law is taken into consideration. The current system of remedies fails to accommodate the grievances of the states with regard to the cyber operations. Hence, a new platform for the state remedies is suggested and proposed.
Preventive Detention as a Personal Preventive Measure in Criminal Law of Chile
Authors: Torres López Hardy
Published: October 2020

Two decades ago, Chile took action and started a process that modified its entire criminal system, a process that did not commence in Chile alone, but in the majority of South American countries who followed the same path; in Chile, the adversarial system was gradually implemented, and since 2005 it remains in force in every part of the country. Perhaps, the most important objective and/or effect that this change brought to the Chile’s criminal law was to ensure the complete respect towards the fundamental rights of those who were under investigation in the criminal system, overcoming the problems and obstacles that the previous inquisitorial system presented. Thereby, one of the aspects that this new criminal system improved was granting the authority to judges to issue a preventive detention as a personal preventive measure during the aftermath of the criminal process, whilst such measure was applied in a massive and general manner within the previous system. This article aims to present the main impacts that the application of this new system of criminal procedure has introduced in Chile, regarding the use of the preventive detention as a personal preventive measure during the development of the criminal processes. The author intends to examine whether the overhaul of the criminal procedure system in Chile has been a useful tool to streamline the use of the preventive detention measure in the criminal process, namely, if such change has been able to create a conduct consistent with the internationally recognized values and that should guide the use of this preventive measure, especially regarding its exceptional nature and the right to be considered innocent before trial. To comply with the previously stated purpose, this article is divided into two sections. The first one, beyond analysing the context of the preventive detention during the Chilean inquisitive system in the scope of the changes at a normative level that the new criminal procedure system proposes, is also used as a baseline for contrasting the outcomes obtained after implementation of these changes. The second section is dedicated to analysing the impact of the overhaul of the criminal procedure system with regard to applying the preventive detention in Chile and the series of changes that have been implemented.
O manuscrito da Pedagogia do Oprimido: rasuras e a crítica genética
Authors: Lauriti Nádia Conceição
Published: October 2020

Este trabalho tem como objeto de investigação as rasuras no manuscrito da Pedagogia do Oprimido, de Paulo Freire, publicado no ano de 2013. O universo de pesquisa circunscreve-se ao exame das rasuras mais significativas realizadas pelo autor e registradas na obra durante o processo de criação. A abordagem teórico-analítica ancora-se na crítica genética, recurso metodológico destinado às análises de manuscritos, possibilitando ouvir as vozes que surgem das rasuras por meio de movimentos escriturais e operações de deslocamento, substituição, acréscimo ou eliminação. Por essas marcas autorais torna-se possível observar o cruzamento de dois mundos discursivos: o político e o educativo, revelando um duplo ethos – o educador dialógico, que assume o compromisso com o que diz, e o militante engajado com a causa do oprimido, que luta por aquilo que professa.
Measuring a Business's Grit and Survivability when Faced with “Black Swan” Events Like the Coronavirus Pandemic
Authors: Gray Glen L. , Alles Michael G.
Published: October 2020

The coronavirus crisis disrupted business survivability. Measures, like going concern opinion and bankruptcy predictors, depend on past trends extending into the future. With black swan events, past trends do not extend into the future. We propose two new metrics. The “Going Concern Survivability Index” (GCSI) is the maximum percentage revenue loss that a business can endure as a going concern. The “One Month Resilience Index” (OMRI) is the effect on the net income from the loss of the revenue for its most successful month. While OMRI is straightforward, calculating GCSI requires real options and process mining. The emerging technology of process mining and artificial intelligence are needed to capture the dynamic process by which management will juggle cash flows, sources of funds, and payment of liabilities as revenue falls. This paper is an instance of action design science research, and we discuss the steps to put our artifact into practice.
Enerji Üretim Yatırım Alternatiflerinin Değerlendirilmesinde Çok Kriterli Karar Verme Yöntemlerinin İstatistiksel ve Analitik Olarak Karşılaştırması: Türkiye Örneği
Authors: AVŞAR ÖZCAN Nermin , BULUT Merve , ÖZCAN Evren Can , EREN Tamer
Published: October 2020

Küresel dünyada ülkelerin sürdürülebilir kalkınma hamlelerini gerçekleştirmeleri sürecinde enerji kavramı önemli bir rol oynamaktadır. Özellikle enerji üretimi alanında yapılacak yatırımların sürdürülebilir enerji politikası geliştirilmesi üzerindeki etki düzeyi, ülkelerin global pozisyonlarını yukarı noktalara taşıyan bir ölçüt olarak dünya genelinde dikkate alınmaktadır. Bu bağlamda, ülkelerin sahip oldukları yerli ve yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarından en üst düzeyde yararlanacak şekilde yatırımlar yapması, sürdürülebilir enerji politikalarının 4 sac ayağı olan ekonomiklik, kesintisizlik, çevreye duyarlılık ve verimlilik kriterlerinin tamamına etki etmesi açısından bir zorunluluk halini yansıtmaktadır. Bu doğrultuda, literatürde problem yapısının çok kriterli karar verme yöntemlerine uygunluğunu dikkate alan ve farklı yöntemler kullanarak bölgesel ya da ulusal düzeyde gerçekleştirilen birçok çalışma da bulunmaktadır. Ancak bu çalışmada literatürden farklı olarak, potansiyel tüm enerji kaynaklarından Türkiye için muhtemel yatırım yapılabilecek olanlar analitik olarak hesaplanmış, veri temelli ve kapsayıcı kriterler altında değerlendirilmiştir. Problem yapısına uygun olan literatürde kabul görmüş 7 yöntem/yöntem kombinasyonu ile enerji yatırım alternatifleri sıralama problemi literatürde ilk kez bu çalışma ile çözülmüş ve elde edilen sonuçlar Türkiye özelinde, dünya enerji sektörü açısından ve istatistiksel olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Bu değerlendirme sonuçları göstermiştir ki yenilenebilir enerji kaynaklarından rüzgar ve hidroelektrik enerjisi sürdürülebilir enerji politikasına katkı sağlarken diğer yandan fosil kaynaklar içerisinde yer alan doğalgazın, Türkiye açısından uzun yıllar vazgeçilmez bir yatırım kaynağı olacağı sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Ayrıca tüm çözüm yöntemlerinden elde edilen sonuçların istatistiksel olarak değerlendirilmesi ile de yüksek ilişkili korelasyona sahip oldukları sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu durum sürdürülebilirlik açısından anlamlı kriterlerin bir araya getirildiğini de doğrular niteliktedir. Gerçek hayatla tutarlı ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı sonuçların elde edildiği bu çalışmanın, sürekli değişen koşullara cevap verebilecek sürdürülebilir enerji politikalarının üretilmesine olanak sağlaması beklenmektedir.
Nociones de género y empoderamiento de las niñas y las mujeres en la escuela. Conceptos y reflexiones
Authors: Miranda Beltrán Sorangela
Published: October 2020

El presente artículo enfatiza sobre la relevancia de potencializar el protagonismo social de las niñas y las mujeres, así como la superación de las barreras, los estereotipos y las diferentes formas de discriminación asociadas a la condición de género, que dificultan su plena participación en condiciones de equidad e igualdad de oportunidades, categoría que al ser retomada como una construcción social, posiciona a la escuela como un escenario propicio para el empoderamiento, la participación y el fortalecimiento de la cultura democrática.
Improving the Accuracy of Fatigue Damage Calculations for Archived Data
Authors: Leski Andrzej
Published: October 2020

Historical operational usage data give a ground for fatigue damage estimation. Quality of sensors and recorders two or more decades ago were lower then modern one. Lack of resolution in nz-level measurement and recording leads to some errors in fatigue damage calculations. In this paper author propose a method to improve the accuracy of fatigue damage calculations for archived data. The method takes advantage of typical distribution of accumulated cycles for aircrafts. Small correction in representative nz value taken in calculations can reduce the error in fatigue damage assessment.
Low-Cost Data Acquisition Unit for Flight Tests
Authors: Morawski Błażej , Głowacki Dominik , Głowacka Anna
Published: October 2020

The purpose of this paper is to present the design of a data recorder for flight tests of a full-scale aircraft and an UAV. The recorder is built based on the Arduino microprocessor platform and LabVIEW development environment. The data recorder will be used mainly for helicopter flight tests.
Forensic anthropological video-based cases at the Department of Forensic Medicine, University of Copenhagen: a 10-year retrospective review
Authors: Nielsen Mark , Lynnerup Niels , Larsen Peter Kastmand
Published: October 2020

In criminal cases where there is a lack of evidence, the authorities sometimes ask our department to make a comparison of a criminal and suspect for possible identification or exclusion. This paper provides a comprehensive overview of 113 such cases analysed by the Department of Forensic Medicine, University of Copenhagen, Denmark in 2006–2016. The aims of the analyses were to assist the authorities in identifying individuals, predominantly due to a suspicion of involvement in criminal activity. The videos comprised surveillance footage showing a criminal committing a criminal act. Based on comparisons of specific parameters, such as face, gait and general body proportions, conclusions were drawn on the plausibly of a suspect being the perpetrator of the crime in the video footage. This paper describes the most typical case: a comparison of one suspect with one criminal committing a robbery. In the majority of cases, the suspect could not be excluded from being the criminal based on the analysis of the video footage.