Abstract 2248: Environmental factors associated with residual disease after ovarian cancer primary cytoreduction surgery
Authors: Phung Minh Tung , Berchuck Andrew , Goode Ellen L. , Goodman Marc T. , Hanley Gillian E. , Richardson Jean , Grout Bronwyn , Chase Anne , Deurloo Cindy McKinnon , Karlan Beth Y. , Van Gorp Toon , Matsuo Keitaro , McLean Karen , Pike Malcolm C. , Schildkraut Joellen M. , Terry Kathryn L. , DeFazio Anna , Webb Penelope M. , Pharoah Paul D. P. , Ramus Susan J. , Pearce Celeste Leigh 
Published: June 2022

Background: Ovarian cancer is the deadliest gynecologic cancer. Standard treatments for advanced stage high-grade serous ovarian cancer, the most common type, include (1) primary cytoreductive surgery (PCS) followed by adjuvant chemotherapy or (2) neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) with interval debulking surgery. Patients in whom PCS is unlikely to yield optimal cytoreduction to no visible residual disease (R0) or who have medical contraindications to PCS are recommended to undergo NACT. Previous studies on associations between environmental factors and risk of any macroscopic residual disease have yielded inconsistent results. We aimed to (1) comprehensively examine the associations between demographic, lifestyle and reproductive factors and risk of residual disease after PCS; and (2) develop and internally validate a risk prediction model based on these factors.

Methods: We used pooled data on 3,492 women who had PCS following a diagnosis with advanced stage high-grade serous ovarian, fallopian tube or primary peritoneal cancers from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium. Fifteen exposures of interest included age at diagnosis, menopausal status, race/ethnicity, education level, first-degree family history of ovarian cancer, endometriosis, smoking, body mass index, parity, incomplete pregnancy, tubal ligation, use of combined oral contraceptives, depot-medroxyprogesterone acetate, estrogen (ET), and combined estrogen-progestin therapy. We fit logistic regression models to examine each exposure-residual disease association in 80% of the data (n=2,794; random selection of participants). We developed a risk prediction model including the factors with p-values ≤0.2. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess the model’s discrimination in the remaining 20% of the data (n=698).

Results: Of the 3,492 participants, 2,003 (57%) had residual disease following PCS. Older age at diagnosis was associated with an increased risk of residual disease (OR=1.07 per five years, 95% CI 1.03-1.11). In contrast, a family history of ovarian cancer (OR=0.63, 95% CI 0.42-0.95) or ET use for 5+ years (OR=0.61, 95% CI 0.39-0.96) were associated with achieving R0. These above factors were included in the risk prediction model as were race/ethnicity, personal history of endometriosis, and smoking, whose p-values ≤0.2. The model showed modest performance in the validation set (AUC=0.64).

Conclusions: Younger age at diagnosis, family history of ovarian cancer, and long-term ET use were associated with achieving R0 following PCS. Future studies incorporating genetic and clinical factors to improve the risk prediction for residual disease following PCS are warranted.

Citation Format: Minh Tung Phung, Andrew Berchuck, Ellen L. Goode, Marc T. Goodman, Gillian E. Hanley, Jean Richardson, Bronwyn Grout, Anne Chase, Cindy McKinnon Deurloo, Beth Y. Karlan, Toon Van Gorp, Keitaro Matsuo, Karen McLean, Malcolm C. Pike, Joellen M. Schildkraut, Kathryn L. Terry, Anna DeFazio, Penelope M. Webb, Paul D. P. Pharoah, Susan J. Ramus, Celeste Leigh Pearce. Environmental factors associated with residual disease after ovarian cancer primary cytoreduction surgery [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2022; 2022 Apr 8-13. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2022;82(12_Suppl):Abstract nr 2248.