bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Technology characteristics, farmers' perceptions and adoption decisions: A Tobit model application in Sierra Leone
Authors: Adesina Akinwumi A. , Zinnah Moses M.
Published: January 2020

The objective of this paper is to test the hypothesis that farmer perceptions of technology‐specific characteristics significantly condition technology adoption decisions. Earlier adoption studies have not considered this in the analysis of the determinants of adoption decisions. The omission of farmers' evaluation of technology‐specific attributes may bias the results of factors conditioning adoption choices.

A Tobit model was used to test this hypothesis using a stratified random sample of 124 mangrove swamp rice farmers in Sierra Leone. The issue investigated is the adoption of improved mangrove swamp rice varieties. The estimated model results show that farmer perceptions of the technology‐specific attributes of the varieties are the major factors determining adoption and use intensities. Indicators of adoption determinants traditionally used in adoption‐diffusion studies were found not to be important in driving adoption decisions. Therefore, there is need for adoption studies to consider farmers' perceptions of technology‐specific attributes in the assessment of technology adoption decisions.
Testing two trade models in Latin American agriculture
Authors: Arnade Carlos Anthony
Published: January 2020

The Heckscher–Ohlin and Markusen models state that countries export the goods intensive in the use of their relatively abundant factor. Latin American agricultural trade is consistent with both models. The paper then shows that Latin American agricultural trade is primarily explained by country differences in relative factor abundance between countries rather than differences in technology. This finding does not reject the Heckscher–Ohlin model but rejects one of Markusen's models.
Agricultural trade negotiations as a strategic game
Authors: Makki Shiva S. , Tweeten Luther , Gleckler James
Published: January 2020

This study views multilateral trade negotiations as a strategic game among nations or regions, including taxpayer, consumer, and producer components. Payoffs are calculated from an intermediate‐run international trade model initialized with 1989 data. For the public at large, the Nash equilibrium and socially optimal outcome is liberalization of trade – unilateral or multilateral. Maintenance of the status quo of market distortions costing the world billions of dollars each year is rational only if producer payoffs are sovereign so that strategies optimal for producers are considered optimal for nations. Remedial policies are discussed, including opportunities for economic education, political system reform, and less incentives for producers to scuttle multilateral trade negotiations.
Efficiency estimation in a profit maximising model using flexible production function
Authors: Kumbhakar Subal C.
Published: January 2020

This paper uses a flexible (translog) production function to estimate efficiency of 227 farms from West Bengal, India. We consider estimation of technical and allocative inefficiencies using a profit maximising framework which accommodates both endogenous and exogenous inputs. The maximum likelihood method of estimation developed in this paper is based on the production function and the first‐order conditions of profit maximisation. Farm‐specific technical and allocative inefficiencies are also estimated. Empirical results show that the mean level of technical efficiency is 75.46% while the best farm is 85.87% efficient (technically). So far as allocative efficiency is concerned the majority of the farms are found to be under‐users of the endogenous inputs, viz., fertiliser, manure, human and bullock labour.
Technology, production environment, and household income: Assessing the regional impacts of technological change
Authors: Renkow Mitch
Published: January 2020

This paper clarifies the factors determining the welfare effects of improved agricultural technologies when technology diffusion is unevenly distributed across production environments Household‐level income effects are shown to depend primarily on: (a) whether the economy is open or closed with respect to world markets; (b) whether households are net consumers or net producers of the commodity for which technological change occurs; (c) whether households are adopters or non‐adopters of the new technology; (d) the degree to which labor is mobile across agricultural regions; and (e) government intervention in commodity and/or factor markets. A review of recent empirical work indicates considerable variation in the relative strength of these various factors across countries, and that assumptions regarding the mechanism by which commodity prices are determined – endogenously as in a closed economy, or exogenously as in an open economy – is especially critical.
Differential human capital and structural evolution in agriculture
Authors: Rodgers John L.
Published: January 2020

The growth of market capitalism and the technological advances of the last two centuries underlie the relentless process of structural change in agriculture. Substantial occupational migration out of farming and geographical migration from rural to urban areas is a characteristic of most, if not all, economies in the 20th century. The process of rural‐urban migration, and the resulting urban problems have received considerable attention. The fate of the residual farm population has received less scrutiny and is less well understood. In the United States we observe considerable farm poverty, increasing farm‐size inequality, and a disturbing decay of rural communities. For the last half century, the problem of low farm incomes has been perceived as a farm problem amenable to solution by appropriate farm policy. In this paper, a model is proposed which suggests that farm poverty and inequality are inevitable consequences of a rural‐urban migration process in which two types of human capital play a fundamental role. General human capital determines a person's expected nonfarm income, while farming‐specific human capital determines his/her productivity in farming. It is argued that inadequate human capital combined with positive rural‐urban migration cost, positive farm technology adoption costs, and inelastic demand for farm output, can explain persistently high levels of farm poverty, and increasing farm size inequality. The model suggests that traditional farm policies are inappropriate. Programs that directly address the problems of inadequate human capital are advocated.
Farmer‐to‐farmer transfer of new crop varieties: an empirical analysis on small farms in Uganda
Authors: Grisley W.
Published: January 2020

Farmer‐to‐farmer transfer or dissemination of technologies is a neglected area of research even though successful diffusion of many researcher and farmer‐developed technologies is highly dependent upon farmers' private initiatives. This is particularly true in many developing countries where formal market mechanisms used in dissemination are often ineffective. Successful dissemination of new technologies to marginal farmers require greater knowledge and use of indigenous dissemination methods. The determinants of farmer‐to‐farmer transfer of new bean varieties experimented with by small‐scale farmers in Uganda are investigated. Farmers were experimenting with new varieties received through earlier on‐farm trials and were transferring small quantities of grain to other farmers for experimental purposes. On‐farm trials may thus be an effective, but limited method for diffusing new varieties. Factors directly associated with the transfer decision were farm size and variables identifying a willingness to experiment with new varieties. The Production risk reducing strategies of intercropping and sowing of a larger number of non‐climbing bean varieties were negatively associated with the probability to transfer grain. The quantity of grain available to transfer was not associated with the transfer decision. Farmers were not transferring grain of the five varieties at different rates even though significant differences in yield were found.
Estimating random effects production function models with selectivity bias: an application to Swedish crop producers
Authors: Heshmati Almas
Published: January 2020

In this paper, the estimation of production functions and measurement of the rate of technical change is performed when selectivity bias is expected. A sample selection model consisting of a selection and a regression equation is estimated using Heckman's two‐stage method. It is discussed in the context of a production function where the underlying technology is represented by a translog functional form. For the regression, a random effects model with heteroscedastic variances is assumed. This model and an alternative conventional model retaining heteroscedasticity without considering selectivity bias are estimated using the Generalized Least Squares method. The data used are a large rotating panel data set from Swedish crop producers over the period 1976–1988. The empirical results from the comparison between these two models show that the introduction of heteroscedasticity and the integration of sample selection in the production relationship is important. The impact of a correction for selectivity bias on the results, in terms of input elasticities and returns to scale is found to be significant.
Evaluation of external market effects and government intervention in Malaysia's agricultural sector: A computable general equilibrium framework
Authors: Yeah Kim Leng , Yanagida John F. , Yamauchi Hiroshi
Published: January 2020

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effects of changes in the external trade environment and domestic economic policies on the agricultural development of Malaysia. The scope of this research also includes providing further insights into the strengths and weaknesses of the computable general equilibrium (CGE) methodology for agricultural policy analysis. The first analysis focuses on the export agriculture sector which encompasses Malaysia's two primary agricultural commodities, rubber and palm oil. Heavily dependent on exports of rubber in the 1950s and 1960s, Malaysia has since built a more diversified economy with strong emphasis on manufacturing. Export agriculture, however, is still an important component of the national economy. The second objective examines the influence of domestic policy on agricultural development. The simulation results demonstrate the growing resiliency of the Malaysian economy to external shocks. Also, they point to the domestic economy's ability to buffer internal Policy‐induced distortions.
Market liberalization and integration of maize markets in Malawi
Authors: Goletti Francesco , Babu Suresh
Published: January 2020

The paper studies the extent of market integration of maize markets in Malawi in order to understand how it has been affected by market liberalization. Several measures of integration are introduced to analyze both the comovement of prices and the price adjustment process over time. Monthly retail prices of maize at eight main locations over the period January 1984 to December 1991 are considered. The main conclusion is that liberalization has increased market integration.
Profitability analysis of foodgrain in the Sudan's irrigated agricultural sector
Authors: Gumaa Yusuf T. , Faki Hamid H. , Mohamed Abu Bakr I. , Ismail Mohamed A.
Published: January 2020

This paper discusses the situation of irrigated sorghum and wheat with respect to their financial and economic profitability and international competitiveness in use of domestic resources, in light of declared government policy which emphasizes shifting from traditional rainfed sector to irrigated sector for production of staple foodgrain. Domestic resource cost analysis has been employed using official and shadow exchange rates. Measures of domestic resource cost ratio, international value added, international competitiveness, nominal and effective protection coefficients were also estimated. Results indicate that the economic profitability has been significantly higher than the financial one due mainly to variability in international prices, yields and overvalued exchange rates; but devaluation of the currency is not a sufficient condition for paying higher prices to farmers.
How integrated are world beef markets? The case of Australian and U.S. beef markets
Authors: Diakosavvas Dimitris
Published: January 2020

The objective of the paper is to examine market integration between Australian and U.S. beef prices at the farmgate level. If these two prices are found to be integrated then it can be alleged that Australian beef prices can be used as a world price in empirical analyses and/or as a ‘reference price’ to measure the level of support accorded the U.S. beef sector. Co‐integration analysis and a time‐varying parameter estimation procedure based on the Kalman filter model are applied. The paper distinguishes between steer and cow beef segments and it uses monthly data over the 1972:1 to 1993:2 period. The results indicate that Australian and U.S. beef prices are co‐integrated, albeit not fully and that the degree of convergence between the various price pairs has not substantially increased over time. The results also suggest that Australian prices can not unequivocally be adopted as a world price in empirical analyses.
Liberalization of agricultural input markets in Bangladesh: process, impact, and lessons
Authors: Ahmed Raisuddin
Published: January 2020

The study takes a historical perspective to trace the path of evolutionary reforms in agricultural input markets of Bangladesh. It estimates the magnitude of the impact of these reforms on rice production, the most important crop in Bangladesh agriculture. It is estimated that the production of rice could have been 20‐32% lower than the level of 1992/1993, depending on the rice price that would have prevailed under alternative scenarios. The 20% credit to market reform relates to a real rice price level 19% higher than the actual 1992/1993 prices. The 32% credit to reform relates to the actual 1992/1943 price levels. The lower contribution of reform (20%) to increased production implies a loss to consumers not accounted for in the production benefit of reform, while the higher contribution (32%) of reform entails no loss to consumers. The bottom‐line conclusion is that Bangladesh, without the market reforms described in the paper, would have reverted back to the situation of regular food crisis and high rice prices, as was the case historically.

The analysis of the process of reform provides interesting lessons for developing countries. A gradual process based on a well‐designed sequencing of various steps of market reform, particularly in the case of fertilizer, was a crucial factor for success. Careful monitoring during the period of transition is another crucial factor that has to be institutionalized in the system. Second generation problems of market reforms, particularly the emergence of an oligopolistic market structure, are possible and warrant a cautionary watch.
Economic impacts of East Coast Fever immunization on smallholder farms, Kenya: a simulation analysis
Authors: Nyangito Hezron O. , Richardson James W. , Mundy Darrell S. , Mukhebi Adrian W. , Zimmel Peter , Namken Jerry
Published: January 2020

A whole farm simulation model, Technology Impact Evaluation System (TIES), was used to assess ex‐ante financial and economic impacts of immunization of dairy cattle against East Coast Fever (ECF) by the infection and treatment method (ITM) on smallholder farms from two sites in Kenya. Four alternative strategics of immunization in combination with different levels of acaricide use were compared with the current acaricide‐based method of control. The economic impacts were estimated using simulated net present values, present values of ending net worth, internal rates of return, benefit‐cost ratios, annual cash farm incomes, cash expenses, and net farm incomes. The results from the analysis indicate that ECF immunization strategics are financially and economically viable on smallholder farms. Based on the risk preference for risk averse producers, the most preferred strategy was to adopt ITM in combination with a 75% reduction in acaricidc use. The results obtained provide a good indication of the relative orders of magnitude of the farm level financial and economic effects of ECF immunization by ITM. The whole farm simulation model used for the analysis has the advantage of incorporating the risks involved in farm production. Whole farm simulation offers a flexible method for assessing the financial and economic impacts of alternative disease control methods on smallholder farms.
The impact of floods on the adoption rate of high‐yielding rice varieties in Bangladesh
Authors: Azam Jean‐Paul
Published: January 2020

This paper analyses econometrically the impact of floods on the rate of adoption of high‐yielding varieties (HYVs) of rice in Bangladesh. It uses a small model combining a modified logistic adoption function with a model of the process generating expectations errors by the farmers which encompasses most other expectation hypotheses. Using pooled cross‐section and time‐series data at the district level, the econometric results show a significant negative impact of expected flood damage on the HYV adoption rate of ‘aman’ rice. Moreover, it is shown that the adoption of HYV ‘boro’ rice is governed by essentially the same equation.
Profitability, efficiency and comparative advantage of African cattle meat and milk production: the case of trypanotolerant village cattle production
Authors: Itty P.
Published: January 2020

Trypanosomiasis is a major constraint to increased food production in Africa as it limits livestock production and mixed farming over an area of 10 million km2. The use of African trypanotolerant breeds of cattle is one approach to control trypanosomiasis that is being given increasing attention. This paper examines under what circumstances trypanotolerant village cattle enterprises can be economically viable in regions of origin and areas of introduction. On‐going production is analysed in four countries using cost‐benefit analyses. Comparative advantage and subsidies received are also estimated. Results indicate that resources for trypanotolerant cattle production are efficiently allocated as the sector has a comparative advantage and contributes effectively to the national welfare. Financial returns to producers are attractive and by comparing social and private prices important constraints are identified to improve profitability.
Modelling agricultural production of small‐scale farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa: A case study in western Kenya
Authors: Odulaja Adedapo , Kiros Fassil G.
Published: January 2020

Small‐scale farmers are known to produce the greater proportion of food consumed in the Third World, especially in sub‐Saharan Africa. The various national and international agricultural research centres located in these parts of the world have developed agricultural packages which have been proven, at experimental levels, to be highly productive. However, small‐scale farmers in these areas continue to produce at levels far below the capacities of these packages as predicted from experimental results. Consequently, these farmers, despite their relatively large number, could not produce enough to feed themselves let alone the general population.

To improve the quality of life of these farmers in particular, and the population of the Third World in general, there is a need to study the various factors responsible for low agricultural production at the household level. Models relating production to the various factors need to be formulated to improve our understanding of the functional relationships. This in turn could lead to relevant national and international policies with respect to small‐scale farmers in the Third World. In this paper, we develop models to predict production given these factors. For simplicity, the parameters of the models are limited to land size (or herd size), environmental effect and management effect.

A statistical examination of our model fitted to a set of survey data on this subject revealed that improving the farmers' management level could greatly enhance their production. Further statistical analysis of the data set showed that the various factors constituting the farmers' management level could broadly be classified into three groups: resources (labour and farm implements), personal characteristics (educational level and age) and external assistance (contact with extension agents/assistance) in that order of importance. We discuss the importance of these findings in the formulation of policies concerning small‐scale farmers in sub‐Saharan Africa.
Econometric estimation of a global spillover matrix for wheat varietal technology
Authors: Maredia My wish K. , Ward Richard , Byerlee Derek
Published: January 2020

An econometric approach using international and national yield trial data is employed to estimate a spillover matrix for wheat varietal technology. The global spillover matrix is estimated based on international yield trial data from 1979–80 to 1987–88, that include 195 international trial locations and 209 wheat varieties. The locations were classified across countries using the CIMMYT's wheat megaenvironment system and varieties were classified by both their environmental and institutional origin. The model gave good explanatory power and confirmed the location specificity hypothesis, at least, for the varieties developed by national programs (NARS). The spillover matrix shows that NARS varieties developed in the home' environment generally perform better on average than varieties developed in other megaenvironments. Also, the matrix is not symmetric. CIMMYT varieties perform better on average in irrigated and high rainfall environments than NARS varieties developed for these environments. The yield advantage of CIMMYT varieties in many test megaenvironments indicates the potential of CIMMYT varieties to spill‐over to these test megaenvironments. Results also indicate that national programs are efficient in selecting from among imported technologies.

Analysis of international data is complemented by the analysis of country‐level data for Pakistan and Kenya that confirms the above results. The country‐level analysis, however, indicates that CIMMYT germplasm does not do so well in some sub‐environments, such as the irrigated short‐duration environment.

The results of the spillover matrix have implications for the design of crop breeding programs both at the national and international levels. Information provided by the spillover matrix can be utilized by national programs to deploy their resources more efficiently by following a mixed strategy of direct importation of technology in some environments and local development of technologies in other environments which are unique to the country.
Challenges in quantitative economic analysis in support of multilateral trade negotiations
Authors: Meilke Karl D. , McClatchy Don , de Gorter Harry
Published: January 2020

A wide range of economic analysis of agricultural trade liberalization was performed prior to and during the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations. Views differ as to the effectiveness of this research, although most would agree that it became less relevant as the negotiations progressed.

This paper reviews the contributions of economists to the trade liberalization debate, with an emphasis on the quantitative assessment of multilateral agricultural trade liberalization. With a new round of agricultural trade negotiations scheduled to begin in 1999 it is crucial that the quantitative work required to support these negotiations begin in the near future.

The authors conclude that the Uruguay Round outcome provides numerous challenges and opportunities in analyzing the traditional agenda of agricultural trade liberalization. In addition, new issues will be added to the agenda of the next round of negotiations. These include: trade and the environment, competition policy and intellectual property rights. It is important that economists begin to develop a research agenda that can address these issues and become activists in addressing these topics in public forums.
China's projected cereals deficits in a world context
Authors: Alexandratos Nikos
Published: January 2020

Lester Brown's recent writings about trends in China's food consumption, production and rapidly rising import requirements and his predictions that the world is running out of potential to increase production of cereals received wide publicity in the press. They increased awareness of the problem among the public, which was stimulated by recent declines in world cereals production per capita, falling stocks and sharp rises in world market prices. This paper is an attempt on my part to extract a coherent picture of what Brown says about China and the world and examine it in the light of what we know about this country and of possible developments in the world as a whole. I make the following conclusions.

1. Brown misjudges China's potential to maintain and indeed increase cereals production because he misinterprets the data on land losses (he treats diversion of land from cereals to, mainly, other crops and aquaculture as if such land were, lost to food production), he ignores new data which indicate that China has more agricultural land than reported in official statistics and his projected numbers do not account for responses on the part of producers, consumers and government policy to an increasing scarcity of products and rising prices.

2. The analogies he draws with the experiences of Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are inappropriate.

3. China will probably be a growing net importer of cereals but at levels much below those projected by Brown.

4. World production of cereals may indeed grow at a lower rate than in the long‐term past (but not as low as that projected by Brown) which could be sufficient to accommodate China's growing import requirements and the probable ones of other countries.

5. The world food problem is one of persistence of very low food consumption levels and high incidence of undernutrition in many developing countries, mainly in sub‐Saharan Africa and South Asia.

The persistence of severe food insecurity problems reflects not so much constraints in increasing food production in the world as whole but development failures (often agricultural development failures) and the persistence of poverty in certain countries.
An application of cointegration theory in the estimation of the Almost Ideal Demand system for food consumption in Bulgaria
Authors: Balcombe K.G. , Davis J.R.
Published: January 2020

The Almost Ideal Demand system is applied to consumption in Bulgaria. It is argued that the conventional estimation of the Almost Ideal model should be done within the framework of contemporary time series methodology. In this paper, the canonical comtegrating regression procedure of Park is applied. It is argued that the results of the Almost Ideal Demand system that are presented are consistent with both theory and ‘casual’ observation of consumer behaviour in Bulgaria.
Unconventional adjustment strategies for rural households in the less developed areas in Greece
Authors: Damianos Dimitrios , Skuras Dimitrios
Published: January 2020

International competition in agricultural production is intensifying following the implementation of the 1993 accord of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade. The production of conventional farm products in surplus is being discouraged by means of indirect economic disincentives. The Common Agricultural Policy has already adjusted to unprotected national markets within the European Union and greater market orientation is being achieved mainly through price reductions.

Farmers in the less developed areas in Greece, where agricultural activity is still the main source of income and employment, have been responding to policy reforms by seeking part‐time employment and income in non‐farm enterprises. The adoption of alternative, unconventional farm enterprises that use farm resources in an innovative and quantitatively different way does have the potential for bringing in a new source of income to farm business. For the purpose of this research three adjustment strategies were recognised. The ‘conventional’ (no change) pathway is based on traditional, region‐specific products, production methods and services. The adoption of the ‘new crop’ pathway refers to the redeployment of resources into new agricultural products, whereas farms on the market integration Pathway redeploy resources into new marketing services and agricultural product processing on the farm. The new crop and the market integration pathways are identified as unconventional adjustment strategies.

Results derived from multinomial logit analysis highlight the major constraints and opportunities associated with the adoption of new crops and market integration practices. Farmers who have adopted unconventional practices are influenced by factors external to the farm. such as contacts with institutions, and have a high probability of having higher debts. These farmers are likely to depend heavily on seasonal labour and rented land. The fact that market integration activities are associated with smaller farms in conjunction with off‐farm work signifies the importance of establishing an integrated rural development policy approach. Public policy involvement in enhancing dissemination of information concerning unconventional enterprises is emphasised.
Impact of domestic content requirement on the US tobacco and cigarette industries
Authors: Beghin John C. , Brown A. Blake , Zaini M. Hasyim
Published: January 2020

Using a log‐linear equilibrium displacement model we quantify the impact of the recent domestic tobacco content requirement on US cigarette manufacturing. We investigate effects on US growers and manufacturers, and competing tobacco imports. The policy increased domestic use of US‐grown tobacco, but induced a small negative output effect. Tobacco imports decreased substantially. The paper also discusses the political–economic incentives for US manufacturers to comply with such policies. The political cooperation between US growers and manufacturers decreases the opposition of the latter to protectionist policies championed by the former.
Private irrigation investment in Colombia: effects of violence, macroeconomic policy, and environmental conditions
Authors: Dinar Ariel , Keck Andrew
Published: January 2020

This paper identifies and estimates the effects of several determinant, on private investment in irrigation in Colombia. It attempts to quantify macroeconomic policy, environment, and violence variables that have been identified in previous studies as significantly affecting investment, in agriculture in genera., and in irrigation in particular. Variables such as violence, climate, and governmental price credit policies are used to explain changes in private investment in irrigation across regions and over time. Violence negatively affects private investment. Climate affects the investment such that in regions with favorable climate condition, investment in irrigation is less attractive, and appropriate government crop‐price and credit policies promote investment in irrigation.
The impact of prices and macroeconomic policies on agricultural supply: a synthesis of available results
Authors: Mamingi Nlandu
Published: January 2020

This paper reviews the literature dealing with the link of agricultural prices and macroeconomic policies to agricultural supply with particular emphasis on Sub‐Saharan Africa. Although the study echoes the stylized facts on price elasticities underlined in previous literature reviews, the paper points out that our understanding of the quantitative dimensions of agricultural supply response is weak given the importance of this assumed response for growth, poverty alleviation, and the environment. Indeed, issues such as simultaneity of variables, data pooling, omission of variables, and asymmetry in supply responses to price changes have not been adequately addressed in many instances.
Demand for dairy products in Mexico
Authors: Tanyeri‐Abur Ayşen , Rosson C. Parr
Published: January 2020

Mexico is the world's largest importer of non‐fat dry milk (NFDM) and imports of cheese, fluid milk, and whey have increased rapidly in the past four years. In the wake of GATT and the NAFTA, as well as recent economic developments in Mexico, world dairy markets will be affected as a result of changes in the Mexican dairy sector.

The study analyzes both domestic and import demand for dairy products in Mexico to determine price and income elasticities as well as import elasticities. The results indicate that the demand for fluid milk is the most responsive to price changes and NFDM demand is inelastic with respect to its own price. There is little subtitution between fluid milk and non‐fat dry milk, although fluid milk is relatively elastic, which suggests the existence of other substitutes for fluid milk.

Estimation of import demand equations reveal similar trends in response to price changes, but income elasticity of imports was highest for fluid milk which suggests that Mexico will import possibly more fluid than dry milk as incomes rise. The exchange rate was the most significant variable influencing all dairy product imports.
The market efficiency hypothesis: the case of coffee and cocoa futures
Authors: Sabuhoro Jean Bosco , Larue Bruno
Published: January 2020

This study tests the market efficiency hypothesis for coffee and cocoa futures using daily data for contracts with a maturity of 2 and 6 months. The hypothesis is tested sequentially. The first condition is that future spot and futures prices be cointegraled. If this condition is maintained, market efficiency requires the cointegrating vector to support a (0, 1) restriction that can be likened to an unbiasedness condition. Finally, market efficiency imposes zero restrictions on the parameters of the variables expressed in first differences in the specification of the error‐correction representation of the relationship between future spot and futures prices. Brenner and Kroner [Brenner, R., Kroner, K., 1995. Arbitrage, cointegration, and testing the unbiasedness hypothesis in financial markets. Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis 30, pp. 23–42] argue that the cointegration condition is rarely met in practice. They attribute this outcome to potentially non‐stationary net cost‐of‐carry which would make the parameters of the cointegration relation unstable. It is for this reason that Hansen's tests [Hansen, B.E., 1992. Tests of parameter instability in regressions with I(1) processes. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 10] about the stability of the parameters in cointegration regressions were used to supplement more traditional cointegration tests, Johansen and Juselius' cointegration tests [Johansen, S., Juselius, K., 1992. Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK, Journal of Econometrics 53] could not reject cointegration for all four contracts while Hansen's LC test favored cointegration only for the cocoa contracts. Nested and non‐nested testing procedures were used to test the (0, 1) restriction on the cointegration vector. Unbiasedness was found to be robust across testing procedures. However, further testing about the specification of the error‐correction representation revealed the existence of important short run deviations from unbiasedness, Even though these results hold strictly for a rather limited number of contracts and commodities, they are encouraging for futures markets advocates in developing countries.
Understanding the health and nutritional status of children in Ghana
Authors: Asenso‐Okyere W.K. , Asante F.A. , Nubé M.
Published: January 2020

The data set of the Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS, round 1, 1987/1988) was utilized to analyse the principal determinants (publicly and privately) of health and nutrition of children under five in Ghana. While in most health and nutrition studies the emphasis is either on health‐related factors such as occurrence of illness, immunization, accessibility to light (electricity), the role of breastfeeding, or on food availability and food‐consumption‐related factors, in the present study, an attempt has been made to incorporate both aspects simultaneously. On the basis of the GLSS, Ghanaian households spend at the average approximately 60% of total expenses on food. Changes in relative prices of the various food commodities differently affect household food availability. Lowering prices of relatively cheap foods (e.g., millet, cassava) tends to have a strong positive effect on total household kcal availability. At the level of the household, the absolute number of nondependents, presumed to represent the available labour force, is positively correlated with household food availability. There is also a positive correlation between the mothers' level of education (10 yrs of schooling and above) and the nutrition level of children. Occurrence of illness in children could be shown to negatively affect their health and nutrition status. Finally, a specific finding in the analysis was a rather strong negative effect of prolonged breastfeeding on the nutritional status of children. Among the policy recommendations emanating from the research are: (1) promotion of efficient production and marketing of cassava, (2) efforts to achieve slowing down of rural‐urban migration to prevent labour shortages in rural households, (3) improving water and sanitation conditions, (4) expanding immunization programmes in particular in rural areas, and (5) promoting better weaning practices when children are no longer fully breastfed.
Returns to smallholder dairying in the Kilimanjaro region, Tanzania
Authors: Mdoe Ntengua , Wiggins Steve
Published: January 2020

Tanzania is a net importer of dairy products despite its large cattle herd and successive government efforts to promote dairying. This paper draws on survey data to examine the financial attractiveness of dairying to smallholders in an area of high dairy potential on the slopes of Mount Kilimanjaro. On mixed farms in which coffee and bananas are the other main enterprises, producers keep small herds of mainly crossbred and grade cattle, mostly fed in stalls on cut forage and crop residues. Using a herd model, a benefit‐cost analysis of dairying was carried out. This showed that at prevailing prices, returns to dairying were around 20%. There was, however, no difference in the returns gained by the larger scale farmers who had more of the grade cows and managed them intensively, compared to those using a less intensive system with lower potential stock. Moreover, the profitability of dairying for the former was underwritten by subsidies on inputs and fuel which are difficult to justify. Policy has apparently over‐emphasised improving yields and the development of intensive dairying, and has not been sufficiently concerned with keeping down the costs of dairying.
Economic reform and aggregate cropping patterns for Egypt
Authors: Shousha Fawaz M. , Pantsch Gregory R.
Published: January 2020

Beginning in the early 1980s, the government of Egypt embarked on an aggressive initiative to progressively change its centrally planned economy to a system more dependent on domestic and international markets. The agriculture and food sectors have taken the lead in the economic reforms. This paper investigates changes in Egyptian cropping patterns as an indicator of the 'success' of the transition toward a more market‐oriented economy. First, trends in cultivated area and gross margins during the economic reforms are described. Responses of cropping patterns to changes in gross margins are then evaluated. A random effect distributed lag model with pooled cross‐sectional time‐series methods is used to examine the relationship for individual crops. Canonical correlation analysis provides a more general assessment of responsiveness of the overall cropping pattern.
Valuing soil conservation benefits of agroforestry: contour hedgerows in the Eastern Visayas, Philippines
Authors: Pattanayak Subhrendu , Mercer D. Evan
Published: January 2020

Trees can be considered as investments made by economic agents to prevent depreciation of natural assets such as stocks of top soil and water In agroforestry systems farmers use trees in this manner by deliberately combining them with agricultural crops on the same unit of land. Although advocates of agroforestry have asserted that soil conservation is one of its primary benefits, empirical estimates of these benefits have been lacking due to temporal and spatial complexity of agroforestry systems and the nonmarket aspect of soil capital assets. This study designs and applies a bio‐economic framework for valuing the soil conservation benefits of agroforestry. The framework is tested with econometric analysis of data from surveys of households in Eastern Visayas. Philippines, where USAID/Government of Philippines introduced contour hedgerow agroforestry in 1983. By constructing a weighted soil quality index that also incorporates measures of soil fertility, texture and color in addition to erosion, we extend previous economic studies of soil resources. This index is regressed on a variety of farming and site specific bio‐physical variables. Next, we use a Cobb‐Douglas profit function to directly relate agricultural profits and soil quality. Thus, the value of soil conservation is measured as a quasi‐rent differential or the share of producer surplus associated with a change in soil quality. Because this framework assumes the existence of markets, the assumption is tested by analysing the statistical significance of consumption side variables, e.g., number of household members, on production side variables, e.g., profits. Instrumental variables are used to handle the endogeneity of the soil index in the profit equation. Seemingly unrelatedregression (SUR) analysis is used to accommodate correlation of errors across the soil and profit equations. Regression results reveal the importance of agroforestry intensity, private ownership, land fragmentation, and familiarity with soil conservation as positive covariates of soil quality. Analysis of production data indicate the importance of market prices, education, farming experience, farm size, topography, and soil quality as positive covariates of household profits Investments in agroforestry to improve or maintain soil capital can increased annual agricultural profits by US$53 for the typical household, which is 6% of total income. However, there are significant up‐front costs. Given that small farmers in tropical uplands are important players in the management of deteriorating soil and forest resources, policy makers may want to consider supporting farmers in the early years of agroforestry adoption.
Seasonality and unit roots: the demand for fruits
Authors: Arnade Carlos , Pick Daniel
Published: January 2020

We apply seasonal unit root tests to apple and pear price and quality data. We then develop a method for testing shifts in amplitude and/or phase of the seasonal cycles. The results have implications to speifications of models which use short‐run data (quarterly, monthly).
The demand for food and beverages in Norway
Authors: Rickertsen Kyrre
Published: January 2020

The demand for food and beverages is estimated within a three‐stage demand model. The separability structure of the model is checked by nonparametric tests. Some generalized axiom of revealed preference (GARP) violations are detected in one of the subsystems. However, they are removed by small adjustments in the quantities of fish, and the violations are interpreted as results of measurement errors. The almost ideal demand system is used in the static and a dynamic version. The results of various specification and misspccification tests suggest that the static version performs poorly as compared with the dynamic version. Norwegian demand elasticities for disaggregate food commodities have rarely been estimated within a system framework, so the results are of intrinsic interest. The elasticities estimated by using the dynamic model are of the expected signs and reasonable magnitudes. The values are stable over time for most commodities. Elasticities estimated within a subsystem are conditional on the goods included in that system, and they may differ from the more policy relevant unconditional elasticities estimated within a system including all goods. Adjustment formulas are used to approximate the unconditional elasticities from the estimated conditional elasticities. There are considerable differences between the numerical values of the conditional and unconditional elasticities for several of the foods. The unconditional own‐price elasticities are in the interval‐0.20 to‐0.89. The own‐price elasticities for hot drinks and for milk are most inelastic. The unconditional expenditure elasticities for food‐away‐from‐home, fish, soft drinks, and alcoholic beverages are above one, while the expenditure elasticity for hot drinks is about zero.
Competition in the US meatpacking industry: is it history?
Authors: Azzam Azzeddine M.
Published: January 2020

The US meatpacking industry has become concentrated to a degree not experienced since the days of the ‘Beef trust’ a century ago. A number of mainstream studies have investigated if such concentration has been detrimental to competition. Just as earlier studies may have helped shape competition policy towards meatpacking a century ago, contemporary studies have made their way into current discussions and may shape competition policy at the turn of this century. This paper asks whether or not contemporary studies are useful in informing competition policy. After comparing how competition looks from the econometric vantage point with how it looks from the vantage point of the industry's 300‐yr history, this article concludes that mainstream studies are more useful for a competition policy targeting conduct rather than structure.
Environinental and economic consequences of technology adoption: IPM in viticulture
Authors: Fernandez‐Cornejo Jorge
Published: January 2020

The impact of integrated pest management (IPM) on pesticide use, toxicity and other environmental characteristics, yields, and farm profits is examined for grape growers. The method is generally applicable for technology adoption and accounts for self‐selectivity, simultaneity, and theoretical consistency. IPM adopters apply significantly less insecticides and fungicides than nonadopters among grape producers in six states, accounting for most of the U.S. production. Both the average toxicity and the Environmental Impact Quotient decrease slightly with adoption of insect IPM, but remain about the same for adopters and nonadopters of IPM for diseases. The effect of IPM adoption on yields and variable profits is positive but only significant for the case of IPM for diseases, i.e., the adoption of IPM for diseases increases yields and profits significantly.
Advertising, concentration and profitability in Greek food manufacturing industries
Authors: Vlachvei A. , Oustapassidis K.
Published: January 2020

The conventional framework for cross‐sectional studies of industrial organisation focuses on the hypothesised relations among structure, conduct and performance (SCP). This paper investigates these relationships for the food and beverage manufacturing industries in a European country, i.e., Greece. 3SLS method is used to estimate the parameters of the profitability, concentration and advertising model for a sample of 38 four‐digit industries in 1994. The main results, which are in line with the relevant empirical work, show that profitability is determined by advertising, which, in turn, is affected by both profitability and concentration, while the latter is determined by economies of scale.