bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Effects of networks on learning during emergency events
Authors: Hamra Jafar , Hossain Liaquat , Owen Christine , Abbasi Alireza
Published: April 2013

Purpose

This paper aims to explore the relationship between learning and the social networks employed within the context of emergency management. It hypothesises, using social network theory as a framework for analysis, that changes to interconnectedness between actors are implicated in the potential for those actors to learn and improvise in dynamically changing and emergent conditions.

Design/methodology/approach

To test the hypotheses, survey data were investigated which were collected as part of a research study with the support of the Australian Bushfire Co‐operative Research Centre (CRC). This survey was completed by experienced personnel reflecting on a number of indicators in an emergency event.

Findings

Results show that increases in actors’ involvement within the social emergency management network influences the ability of those actors to engage in learning‐related work activity. The paper infers that by developing learning related resources within the context of their social interactions these emergency personnel are better able to adapt and improvise in complex emergency events.

Research limitations/implications

As an area of further research, it would be useful to apply the existing theoretical model to the context of another domain, preferably one that shares characteristics of uncertainty and unstable environments.

Originality/value

Most existing studies of learning theory in human networks have focused on learning in situations requiring stable working relationships with no environmental uncertainties. In this paper, it is argued that the designs of existing models are useful as a building block, yet flawed for application within the context of disaster management. By presenting a model of learning‐related work activity, as an ongoing aspect of network connectedness, personnel within emergency services organisations can strengthen their capacity to be flexible and adaptable.
Planning of professional teacher‐training program for disaster prevention education and executing efficiency evaluation
Authors: Chen Chien‐Yuan , Yu Kun‐Huang , Chen Mei‐Ying
Published: April 2013

Purpose

The aim of this project is to modify and test the executive model of professional teacher training of disaster prevention education.

Design/methodology/approach

A three‐level teacher‐training program for disaster prevention education and training curricula is designed for campus disaster mitigation. The designed disaster prevention education in schools focus on the awareness of disasters, attitude toward prevention, preparation beforehand, appropriate countermeasures, scheduled drills, establishment of community‐based prevention units, participation, training programs for teachers, safety warning signs for public buildings, and research on disaster prevention.

Findings

The accomplishment of the project includes: the design of a systematic license procedure for disaster prevention for the leading‐level, county‐level, and campus‐level; the design of a systematic curricula for teacher training of disaster prevention and training campus‐level teachers; and the evaluation of the efficiency and performance of the teacher‐training program for disaster prevention education.

Originality/value

A three‐level teacher‐training program for disaster prevention education and training curricula is designed. Statistics analysis of training and learning efficiency evaluation by trainee shows that the designed courses are efficient and practical. The project cultured 310 campus‐level disaster prevention teachers and more than 1,000 licensed teachers trained that follow the training program in Taiwan.
In pursuit of ideal emergency planning in Korea
Authors: Ha Kyoo‐Man
Published: April 2013

Purpose

This paper aims to document the present situation of emergency planning in Korea, and subsequently to provide related alternatives by comparing the reality of “mere awareness approach” and the appropriate strategies to “sincere accommodation approach.”

Design/methodology/approach

With the inferences of other countries, mere awareness approach and sincere accommodation approach have been systematically analyzed via the same four components: government employees, traditional minority; foreign‐born population; and animals.

Findings

The major tenet of this paper is that Korea has to change its mere awareness approach to sincere accommodation approach to sincerely facilitate ideal emergency planning.

Originality/value

It is certain that no distinctive research, such as the issue of diverse professionals in emergency planning process, has ever been conducted on the ideal emergency planning in Korea. Thus, conducting a research on how Korea will substantially improve the level of emergency planning in the field of emergency management seems appropriate. Further, the research may let international scholars in the field of emergency management know what has happened or what will be needed in the area of Korean emergency planning.
Is the Normal Accidents perspective falsifiable?
Authors: Silvast Antti , Kelman Ilan
Published: April 2013

Purpose

– This article is motivated by debates regarding Charles Perrow
'
s Normal Accidents perspective which describes how technological systems are prone to failure if they have complexity and tight coupling. The purpose of this paper is to explore Normal Accidents conceptually to understand whether or not it might be feasible to disprove it or to find counterexamples.

Design/methodology/approach

– The approach taken by this article is to identify and explore assumptions inherent in Normal Accidents which might make the perspective non-falsifiable.

Findings

– The findings and discussion cover two principal assumptions inherent in Normal Accidents. First, no past record of the absence of a Normal Accident excludes the possibility of a future Normal Accident. Second, analysis of a Normal Accident is always relative to the selected definition of the system, but a system can potentially be defined so that there was or was not a Normal Accident.

Practical implications

– Although the Normal Accidents perspective does not appear to be falsifiable, the perspective should still be taught and considered when designing and operating technological systems. The reason is that, even if Normal Accidents is a truism, it is not accepted as such, meaning that society is setting itself up for continual catastrophic failures of technology.

Originality/value

– An exploration is provided of digging beneath the “Normal Accidents” perspective and its discussants to explore why the perspective is so important yet so rarely implemented in practice.
Using education and social learning in capacity building – the IntECR concept
Authors: Johansson Magnus , Nyberg Lars , Evers Mariele , Hansson Max
Published: April 2013

Purpose

– The aim of this paper is to present a concept where social learning is used in education. Thematically, the concept is suitable for complex, interdisciplinary, societal challenges with a high degree of uncertainty regarding future changes. It is exemplified here by the need to link disaster risk reduction (DRR) with climate change adaptation (CCA) and flood risk management (FRM). The concept answers to the variety of adopted solutions and build-up of knowledge that exist, as a consequence of far-reaching local liabilities and initiatives. The concept advocates building of platforms and procedures where managers, stakeholders, researchers, policy makers, and regular students can meet, interact and learn from local examples.

Design/methodology/approach

– The concept IntECR (integrated education, research and collaboration) has been tested in two courses during 2009 and 2010 around the Swedish lakes Vänern and Mälaren. Seminars and field visits were arranged in ten different cities. Participants replied anonymously to a course evaluation and were questioned in groups about their perceived benefit from the concept.

Findings

– Informal networking, holistic perspective, shared problem identification and the positive possibility to study several examples of local management in arrangements with high degree of structural openness, were mentioned by the participants as positive outcome of the concept.

Originality/value

– The use of this educational concept aims to increase the adaptive capacity of societal entities through raised capacity of their individual members. The applied example is timely, relevant and a contribution to DRR and CCA.
Understanding wildfire vulnerability of residents in Teton County, Wyoming
Authors: Kanclerz Lucas , DeChano‐Cook Lisa M.
Published: April 2013

Purpose

This research aims to examine the wildfire vulnerability of part‐time and full‐time residents in the wildland‐urban interface (WUI) of Teton County, Wyoming. Are part‐time residents creating more of a vulnerability to the community because they do not live in the community all year, they have limited experience with wildfires, and they perceive Firewise activities as not being effective mitigation practices?

Design/methodology/approach

Data collection took place via a survey that inquired about respondents past wildfire experiences, if they do Firewise activities, and how effective they feel these wildfire home protection activities are. Responses were analyzed by Chi‐squared and t‐tests where appropriate.

Findings

The results of this study indicate that part‐time residents have the same past wildfire experiences and perceptions of Firewise activities, and do similar Firewise activities as full‐time residents. This suggests that these communities in Teton County may be more homogenous in their vulnerability than other wildfire communities.

Research limitations/implications

Because of the limited geographic scope, results cannot be generalized for the entire county, the state of Wyoming, or other wildfire‐prone residential areas. Therefore, researchers are encouraged to investigate other WUI areas.

Practical implications

This research suggests that local and federal agencies in and near these communities talk to the residents of wildland‐interface communities and help them become less vulnerable to the wildfire hazard.

Originality/value

This research adds to the limited know of wildfire‐urban interface vulnerability and perceptions. It is significant because this interface will expand as amenity migration into these natural areas continues to occur.
Developing an approach to assess the influence of integrating disaster risk reduction practices into infrastructure reconstruction on socio‐economic development
Authors: Palliyaguru Roshani , Amaratunga Dilanthi , Haigh Richard
Published: April 2013

Purpose

Disasters provide physical, social, economic, political and environmental development windows of opportunity particularly through housing and infrastructure reconstruction. The reconstruction process should not be neglected due to the opportunistic nature of facilitating innovation in development. In this respect, post‐disaster “infrastructure” reconstruction plays a critical role in development discourse and is often essential to sustain recovery after major disasters. However, reconstruction following a natural disaster is a complicated problem involving social, economic, cultural, environmental, psychological, and technological aspects. There are significant development benefits of well‐developed “Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Strategies” and, for many reasons, the concept of DRR can be more easily promoted following a disaster. In this respect, a research study was conducted to investigate the effects of integrating DRR strategies into infrastructure reconstruction on enhancing the socio‐economic development process from a qualitative stance. The purpose of this paper is to document part of this research study; it proposes an approach that can be used to assess the influence of the application of the DRR concept into infrastructure reconstruction on socio‐economic development.

Design/methodology/approach

The research methodology included a critical literature review.

Findings

This paper suggests that the best way to assess the influence of integrating DRR strategies practices into infrastructure reconstruction on socio‐economic development is to assess the level of impact that DRR strategies has on overcoming various factors that form vulnerabilities. Having assessed this, the next step is to assess the influence of overcoming the factors that form vulnerabilities on achieving performance targets of socio‐economic development.

Originality/value

This paper primarily presents a framework for the concept of socio‐economic development and a modelled classification of DRR practices.
Sources of equity in fashion markets
Authors: Calvo Dopico Domingo , Calvo Porral Cristina
Published: April 2013

Purpose

The aim of this research is to identify sources of differentiation in the fashion market as well as finding out sources of brand equity to distinguish the offer, enabling a better competitive position to be achieved.

Design/methodology/approach

To reach this objective, qualitative research was first carried out with 36 sector executives. Based on the results from the initial stage, 250 surveys were then carried out with potential consumers in order to analyze sources of brand equity.

Findings

In the fashion industry, the variables that show great potential for differentiation are excellence in the delivered finished product, brand image and design. In addition, loyalty and brand associations, in which image and design stand out, have been shown to be the most outstanding sources of brand equity.

Practical implications

The allocation of financial resources to the intangible assets of brand image and design should be profitable for the company. The creation of networks of designers and stylists would allow first‐hand information on market evolution. This input would be the basis for identifying new opportunities (e.g. fashionable colours, etc.) and also for anticipating new trends in clothing.

Originality/value

Discovering the sources of equity and their contribution to differentiating and developing high added‐value products for the consumer represents an original contribution in research into fashion markets and brand equity.
Price strategy, information sharing, and firm performance in a market channel with a dominant retailer
Authors: Yan Ruiliang , Myers Chris Anthony , Wang John
Published: April 2013

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to provide a framework to help the manufacturers to find the optimal decisions regarding the choice of channel member for information sharing.

Design/methodology/approach

A game‐theoretical model plus Bayesian forecasting is developed to determine the optimal decisions for the manufacturer.

Findings

The results show that the optimal strategy for the manufacturer is to engage in information sharing with one small retailer exclusively, such that the manufacturer can gain the most benefit from information sharing arrangement in a marketing channel with a dominant retailer.

Research limitations/implications

The present study is analyzed by a theoretical model. Future research can explore the same study by collecting data to engage in an empirical test.

Practical implications

This paper provides a useful model framework and pricing strategy for upstream manufacturers who are engaging or planning to engage in information sharing with their retailers.

Originality/value

This paper provides practical and solid advice and examples demonstrating the optimal decisions regarding the choice of channel member for information sharing to best benefit of the manufacturer.
Place branding: creating self‐brand connections and brand advocacy
Authors: Kemp Elyria , Childers Carla Y. , Williams Kim H.
Published: April 2013

Purpose

The purpose of this research is to investigate how branding theories can be applied to place branding. It aims to examine how internal stakeholders, specifically a city's residents, are fundamental in the brand‐building process.

Design/methodology/approach

A conceptual model with a theoretical basis in the branding literature is developed to illuminate the antecedents of self‐brand connection and brand advocacy in the context of city branding. The model is then tested using structural equation analysis on a sample of residents from an American city that has taken a cultural/entertainment approach to its branding efforts.

Findings

Findings indicate that brand associations, including attitude toward the branding efforts of the city, perceived quality of the brand and the uniqueness of the brand, are crucial in the branding and positioning efforts of a city to its residents. When strong brand associations exist, residents may develop such a connection to the brand that it becomes reflective of their self‐concepts. When this occurs, a self‐brand connection is formed and residents may become advocates of the brand.

Practical implications

This research has special implications for places and municipalities that are in the process of developing branding strategies for their locales as well as those interested in achieving a competitive advantage with existing brand management systems.

Originality/value

This research provides further insight into the application of branding theory to places and destinations. Implications for developing effective brand management systems that appeal to local residents are enumerated.
Key drivers of automobile brand choice in sub‐Saharan Africa: the case of Ghana
Authors: Narteh Bedman , Odoom Raphael , Braimah Mahama , Buame Samuel
Published: April 2013

Purpose

The paper aims to investigate the determinants of automobile brand choice in Ghana. Specifically, the paper seeks to hypothesize that consumers of automobiles make their purchases based on a multiplicity of factors.

Design/methodology/approach

A quantitative approach using questionnaires was adopted to survey 1,020 respondents drawn from various workplaces, churches and homes. The data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, exploratory factor analysis and multiple regression analysis.

Findings

The study established that the attributes of a car, emotional connection, external influences, awareness and accessibility make a strong and significant contribution to automobile brand choice in Ghana.

Originality/value

The study is one of the few of its nature in sub‐Saharan Africa. The new theoretical and empirical insights into factors influencing consumers' purchase decision of automobiles from the study will be significant to automobile manufacturers and dealers operating in developing countries such as Ghana.
The relationship between customer value and pricing strategies: an empirical test
Authors: Codini Anna , Saccani Nicola , Sicco Alessandro
Published: April 2013

Purpose

The paper seeks to fill a research gap that concerns empirical studies on value‐based pricing in durable consumer goods. It aims to analyse the relationship between value for the customer and market prices in the washing machines market.

Design/methodology/approach

The customer value of a sample of 129 washing machine models is assessed through the conjoint analysis technique. It is then compared through a regression analysis to the market prices of the products.

Findings

The regression analysis reveals that the alignment between price and value for the customer is limited (only one of the two subsamples presents a positive dependence among the variables).

Research limitations/implications

The study lacks explanatory power about the reasons for the misalignment between price and customer value in the investigated sector. The results, moreover, refer to a specific product category and a specific national market, although their representativeness as a mature durable in a mature market suggests a broader relevance of the implications. The size of the samples of the empirical research is also limited.

Practical implications

The paper provides an example and guidelines to practitioners on how to implement a customer value assessment. It provides practitioners a deeper understanding of the consequences of misaligned pricing, and of the potential of understanding the actual value sources for the customers.

Originality/value

The study empirically assesses the relationship between value for the customer and market prices of a category of mature durable goods. The results support the claim that value‐based pricing, although believed to be superior to other pricing policies, is still not established as a prominent practice. Moreover, the findings contribute to the discussion on the value of environment‐related attributes and their lifecycle monetary impact on the customers. It also identifies another possible obstacle to the adoption of value‐based pricing, i.e. the structure of the market, to be added to the ones reviewed in the literature.
Moderating roles of organizational inertia and project duration in the NPD process: an empirical investigation
Authors: Shekhar Mishra Shashi , Saji K.B.
Published: April 2013

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to empirically validate the moderating roles of organizational inertia and project duration in the new high‐tech product development process.

Design/methodology/approach

The study methodology involved two phases, viz. exploratory and descriptive. The exploratory phase, with the support of a focused literature survey, has resulted in a theoretical framework, which got later validated through the survey based empirical phase.

Findings

The study results suggest that organizational learning and absorptive capacity could trigger a firm's technology acquisition intent, which in turn could increase the firm's propensity to new product commercialization. Contrary to the authors' hypothesis, the study results did not support firm size as an antecedent to the firm's technology acquisition intent. Further, while the project duration is found to negatively moderate the technology acquisition intent to new product commercialization relationship, the study results did not support the moderating effect of organizational inertia on the same.

Practical implications

The study findings suggest that segmenting technology market based on firm size may not be an appropriate marketing strategy; instead organizational factors, viz. organizational learning and absorptive capacity, should be taken as the basis of high‐tech market segmentation. Further, the study has provided the much needed empirical support to the new high‐tech product development process by explaining the moderating effects of organizational inertia and project duration on the relationship between technology acquisition intent and new product commercialization.

Originality/value

The present study is one among those rare empirical investigations that explained the role of organizational variables in the new high‐tech product development process. In addition, the study provides the marketing practitioners the basis of segmentation for high technology markets.
Using financial analysis to assess brand equity
Authors: Isberg Steven , Pitta Dennis
Published: April 2013

Purpose

The purpose of this article is to describe a method of assessing brand equity quantitatively.

Design/methodology/approach

The article describes an example of analysis using publicly available financial data to assess brand equity.

Findings

Brand equity measurement has been an elusive goal for product managers. While qualitative definitions are available, few studies have attempted to quantify a product or company's brand equity. Using financial analysis techniques focusing on return on equity and return on assets, the case examines the results of two distinct brand equity growth strategies. The first is growth by acquisition; the second, organic brand development. Using historical financial data for the Safeway corporation, the case calculates the brand equity effects of two distinct marketing strategies. In the example, organic brand development, the traditional task of the brand manager, results in higher brand equity.

Research limitations/implications

As in all case studies, the specific conditions found in one organization may not be found more generally in others. Readers are cautioned that the conclusions drawn may have limited applicability.

Practical implications

The work illustrates a technique that a product/service manager may use to assess the brand equity effects of a marketing strategy.

Originality/value

The work describes a technique not widely publicized in the brand literature.
Odd pricing effects: an examination using adaptation‐level theory
Authors: Kinard Brian R. , Capella Michael L. , Bonner Greg
Published: April 2013

Purpose

Using adaptation‐level theory as a conceptual framework, the purpose of this research is to determine what effect, if any, marketplace conditioning has on consumer price estimates and product evaluations.

Design/methodology/approach

A total of 475 subjects participated in two experiments that required them to read a scenario, evaluate a series of advertised products, and perform an aided price recall task.

Findings

The results suggest consumers are more likely to recall the correct price when more of the rightmost digits end in 0 or 9. Moreover, when prices are incorrectly recalled, consumers are likely to inadvertently assume prices end in commonly used rightmost digits (i.e. 5 and 9). Combined, the results demonstrate odd pricing effects are likely a result of marketplace price conditioning rather than truncation of rightmost digits as suggested by the analog model of numerical cognition.

Practical implications

Findings suggest that use of atypical rightmost digits in odd prices fails as a method to differentiate products in the mind of the consumer. This would explain the use of larger right ending digits by retailers in an effort to maximize profit without impacting consumer perceptions of quality, value, and purchase likelihood. In the absence of strong quality image effects, retailers are encouraged to continue the practice of setting prices with digits ending in 9.

Originality/value

A key theoretical implication of this study is that the underestimation heuristic based on leftmost digit processing fails to explain the results of the incorrectly recalled price estimates. As a result, adaptation‐level theory may provide a more robust explanation for odd pricing effects.
Uncovering attribute‐based determinants of loyalty in cigarette brands
Authors: Krystallis Athanasios
Published: April 2013

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to examine the importance of tobacco differentiation attributes (i.e. nicotine and tar content, length, flavor and thickness) in market performance and loyalty levels of brands.

Design/methodology/approach

The study adopts a stochastic approach to measure brand loyalty at the attribute level using the Dirichlet model as a benchmark tool. Data based on the Juster Probability Scale were collected from a sample of n=155 young smokers in Iceland.

Findings

Product differentiation strategies operate differently. Light nicotine and tar content encourages smokers to switch across brands and within family brands, resulting on improved market performance and loyalty levels. Length and thickness‐related differentiation are slightly better than non‐differentiation in inducing loyalty, but worse in improving performance.

Practical implications

Two types of categorization prevail in the category: first, a family brand‐based, mainly relevant for large brands; and second, an attribute‐driven, apparent for small family brands. Two types of switching behaviors can also be considered: first within family brands, switching among product attributes for the larger brands; and second within product attributes, switching among family brands for smaller brands.

Social implications

These findings have profound implications for the development of anti‐smoking policy in terms of the exact functioning of product differentiation as part of the tobacco industry's strategy. Public health policy makers can benefit in their fight against nicotine consumption by taking public policy counter‐measures (e.g. completely banning or regulating production of “light” nicotine and tar content brands) that can limit the anticipated success of differentiation strategies of the tobacco industry.

Originality/value

Not much research has been done on loyalty within the tobacco category, possibly due to the ethical considerations accompanying managerial suggestions about smoking. The contribution of the present work lies in the provisions of evidence‐based insights to help brand managers and other stakeholders (e.g. public health policy makers) to take informed decisions.
An analysis of consumer reactions to green strategies
Authors: Borin Norm , Lindsey‐Mullikin Joan , Krishnan R.
Published: April 2013

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the impact of three green strategies on key consumer metrics. More specifically, it aims to measure consumers' purchase intentions of new green, recycled/refurbished products, green company processes and a non‐green product/process.

Design/methodology/approach

Between subjects 2×2×4 experimental design with two levels of price (high and low), two levels of brand name (known and unknown) and four levels of green strategies.

Findings

Purchase intentions for green product and process strategies are significantly higher than non‐green approaches. However, post‐hoc analysis shows no significant advantage of one green strategy over another. Price and brand name do not have significant interactive effects with green strategies.

Practical implications

Although it is essential that companies develop green strategies for the eco consumer it is not important what specific strategy is selected i.e. going green is the key. Also, despite the continued growth in the demand for green products, price is still the most important driver for consumer purchase – even for the eco consumer. Lastly, despite continued improvements in functional performance, green products do not have a significant advantage in perceived quality. Companies cannot focus completely on the green nature of their products or processes.

Social implications

Consumers believe that purchasing green products or products from green companies may be a way they can help the environmental problems society faces today. This project provides guidance to companies pursuing this market by evaluating different product and process approaches to this growing social trend.

Originality/value

This project is one of the first to focus on the consumer impact of different corporate approaches to the green market.
Linking place, mega‐event and sponsorship evaluations
Authors: Nadeau John , O'Reilly Norm , Heslop Louise A.
Published: April 2013

Purpose

Little research has examined sponsorship within the context of mega‐event and related host images. This paper seeks to explore the relationships among country, destination, mega‐event and sponsor images through the evaluations formed of each entity.

Design/methodology/approach

Based on data collected from 291 Canadian consumers two months after the Beijing Olympics, a SEM model examines the relationships among consumer evaluations of the host country, the country as a destination, the mega‐event itself and sponsors.

Findings

Results support the hypothesized model and present a paradoxical situation for the Olympics hosted by China. While the overall country evaluation was found to have a strong and positive effect on its evaluation as a tourist destination and the destination evaluation has a subsequent positive relationship with Olympic evaluations, a direct and negative relationship between the evaluation of the country and of the Olympic Games was also supported.

Research limitations/implications

Future research should examine the relationship among country, destination, mega‐event and sponsor images in other mega‐event and country contexts. In addition, the pattern of these relationships should be assessed longitudinally.

Practical implications

This study provides evidence to show that the Olympic Games image is resilient and can thrive in challenging contexts. Further, sponsors can be assured that they are receiving value from Olympic sponsorships.

Originality/value

These results extend previous literature on sponsorship evaluation into the large, global sponsor context. In addition, this study examines the role of the host country in understanding the influence of the mega‐event on sponsor images.
Humanity 3000: a comparative analysis of methodological approaches to forecasting the long‐term
Authors: Inayatullah Sohail
Published: April 2013

Purpose

Based on a report to the non‐profit organization, The Foundation for the Future, this article aims to review methodological approaches to forecasting the long‐term future.

Design/methodology/approach

This is not an analysis of the particular content of the next 500 or 1,000 years but a comparative analysis of methodologies and epistemological approaches best utilized in long‐range foresight work. It involves an analysis of multiple methods to understand long‐range foresight; literature review; and critical theory.

Findings

Methodologies that forecast the long‐term future are likely to be more rewarding – in terms of quality, insight, and validity – if they are eclectic and layered, go back in time as far as they go in the future, that contextualize critical factors and long‐term projections through a nuanced reading of macrohistory, and focus on epistemic change, the ruptures that reorder how we know the world.

Research limitations/implications

The article provides frameworks to study the long‐range future. It gives advice on how best to design research projects that are focused on the long‐term. Limitations include: no quantitative studies were used and the approach while epistemologically sensitive remains bounded by Western frameworks of knowledge.

Practical implications

The article provides methodological and epistemological guidance as to the best methods for long range foresight. It overviews strengths and weaknesses of various approaches.

Originality/value

This is the only research project to analyze methodological aspects of 500‐1,000 year forecasting. It includes conventional technocratic views of the future as well as Indic and feminist perspectives. It is among the few studies to link macrohistory and epistemic analysis to study the long‐term.
Catalysts for change: vizualizing the horizon of poverty
Authors: Vian Kathi , Chwierutt Matt , Finlev Tessa , Evan Harris David , Kirchner Maureen
Published: April 2013

Purpose

The Institute for the Future (IFTF) has collaborated with the Rockefeller Foundation and its Searchlight function to create a framework for broad engagement in strategic thinking about ways to catalyze change in the lives of poor or vulnerable communities. This paper seeks to focus on this broad‐based approach.

Design/methodology/approach

Starting from the top‐down horizon scan of the foundation's Searchlight partners – a network of horizon scanning organizations – IFTF created a public database of signals of innovation and disruption in the domain of poverty and social change. This signals database was used to build a visual map of catalysts for change, creating a simple hierarchy of four catalyst types, each containing four action zones and a pivotal challenge. This map provided the language and framework for engaging a global community in a serious game to extend the vision of the Searchlight function and capture novel ideas for innovations that could improve the lives of those in marginalized communities.

Findings

With an estimated global reach of 160,000 views and 1,600 game players from 79 countries, the game produced more than 18,000 ideas about catalysts for change.

Originality/value

This framework of foresight (the signals database) to insight (the visual map of catalysts for change) to action (global strategic game) demonstrates a way to integrate top‐down expert foresight with bottom‐up strategic ideation on a global scale.
The depth of the horizon: searching, scanning and widening horizons
Authors: Miles Ian , Saritas Ozcan
Published: April 2013

Purpose

This essay aims to introduce horizon scanning as an approach fundamental to most foresight studies.

Design/methodology/approach

The essay combines a general review of the topic with an overview of a range of horizon‐scanning approaches that are in use in the UK health system.

Findings

Different approaches – shorter as well as longer‐term, searching as well as broad scanning – are appropriate in different circumstances. In times of systemic change it is necessary to combine approaches of all types.

Research limitations/implications

Only a small sample of the huge range of horizon‐scanning exercises has been studied, and the essay has not gone far into the question of how horizon‐scanning relates to other elements of the foresight process.

Practical implications

The implication is that horizon‐scanning should be undertaken on a routine basis, and should be integrated into planning activities from the start.

Social implications

Horizon‐scanning is a tool needed in activities such as planning for the workforce, and for health and safety issues.

Originality/value

The essay covers a wide range of activities with real‐life illustrations in addition to overall assessment.
S&T&I priorities for the Russian natural resources sector
Authors: Shashnov Sergey , Sokolova Anna
Published: April 2013

Purpose

This paper aims to analyse three individual foresight projects referring to the natural resources sector in Russia, their interconnection and influence on policy decision making.

Design/methodology/approach

The three foresight studies used different methodologies depending on the project's goal. First the projects' interconnections are explained. Second, each of the studies is characterised from different viewpoints, including their aims, structures, methodologies and results. Finally their influence on policy‐making is evaluated.

Findings

The paper concludes that implementation of these three interrelated studies allows identification of S&T&I priorities that have a strong connection with policy decision making. Therefore, on the basis of this experience, it is suggested that a widespread national Delphi survey for the identification of science and technology (S&T) priorities should be complemented by the identification of key long‐term demand for resources and reshaped management systems.

Originality/value

For the first time the paper presents an analysis of Russian foresight projects connected to the natural resources area and an evaluation of their influence on policy decision making.
Mapping of future technology themes in sustainable energy
Authors: Lin Hai‐Chen , Chan Te‐Yi , Ien Cheng‐Hua
Published: April 2013

Purpose

To anticipate science and technology (S&T) changes and shifts in the competitive environment for the preparation of strategic development in an organization, this paper aims to address a structured analysis method for future technology trajectories and interactions by mapping and associating the future technology themes in foresight reports with a state‐of‐the art technology classification system. The objective of this paper is to develop an integrative method for systematically clustering, analyzing and visualizing the path for technology development and transformation.

Design/methodology/approach

Delphi topics related to sustainable energy were collected from strategic foresight reports of Japan, South Korea and China, and used as sources for future technology themes analysis. A standard mapping taxonomy based on international patent classification system was used to map out the technology concept described in these future technology themes. Technology interactions can be identified through a causal effect analysis during the mapping, and the results among selected countries are cross‐compared and visualized in an aggregated view.

Findings

By this standard mapping taxonomy and structured analysis, future technology themes in strategic foresight reports from countries in focus are systematically mapped and integrated for viewing future technology options and interactions. Similarities and discrepancies for prospecting the future technology trajectory among these countries are also identified.

Research limitations/implications

It would be a significant contribution if this structured analysis could be applied more broadly across different geographic regions or across research areas in foresight reports. This research may help to solve the practical difficulties faced during the secondary analysis of foresight studies in foresight preparatory studies by providing a consistent classification framework to make comparison and aggregation of future technology options from different countries/regions. Also, this classification framework can provide a bridge for linking with current technology performance such as patent productivity or quality and help in identifying the gaps between the probable future changes in S&T and the current capability.

Originality/value

The integrative method in this research provides a way to combine both the advantage of strategic technology foresight and competitive technology intelligence by utilizing the results deriving from the former as targets for analysis and the analytic practice deriving from the latter to identify the possible competitive or cooperative landscapes in the future.
Bubbles: towards a typology
Authors: Dholakia Nikhilesh , Turcan Romeo V.
Published: April 2013

Purpose

Bubbles – technology, stock market, housing, and more – have punctuated modern economic history with some regularity, and seem to be happening with greater frequency in recent periods. Part of the authors' larger work on a meta‐theory of bubbles, this paper aims to compare and contrast bubbles in the fields of entertainment, technology, commodities, housing, and stock markets. It seeks to offer a typology of bubbles.

Design/methodology/approach

Using the literature on bubbles and related socioeconomic phenomena, and experience‐based insights, the paper compares and contrasts bubbles in different fields, to derive inductively a typology of bubbles.

Findings

The paper finds six main types of bubbles, ranging from relatively harmless transient and playful bubbles for some movies at one end, to socially dangerous, contagious, irrational and punctured bubbles at the other end, for stock markets or real estate.

Practical implications

Understanding the dimensions that lead to bubbles can provide policymakers with some early intervention tools – to prevent dangerous bubbles.

Social implications

The insights into dimensions and processes of bubble formation presented provide society with a way to judge actors (businesses, public policymakers) and institutions in terms of their roles in creating or managing bubbles.

Originality/value

The main contribution here is the development of two sets of dimensions – the immediate asset‐linked dimensions and somewhat removed but even more powerful meta‐dimensions – that contribute to the formation or collapse of bubbles.
A conceptual model of HRIS‐Trust: an understanding of suppliers'/customers' relationship
Authors: Ngoc Duc Nguyen , Siengthai Sununta , Page Steve
Published: April 2013

Purpose

In this research, the aim is to argue that “trust” is very important in all stages of technology management for human resource management efficiency and effectiveness to improve organizational performance. Therefore the purpose of this paper is to propose the concept and model of “HRIS‐trust” for human resource information system (HRIS) suppliers, who will approach HRIS potential customers.

Design/methodology/approach

This is an exploratory study; hence, based on the relevant literature review and the authors' own analysis, six propositions were proposed for HRIS‐Trust model.

Findings

HRIS‐Trust is one of the pivotal determinants to help managers make decisions to apply HRIS in the organization in order to achieve sustainable human resource management (HRM) performance. Accordingly, to achieve an effective level of HRIS deployment, HRIS‐suppliers and their customers need to have a clear understanding and definition of appropriate terminology of HRIS‐trust for operational management systems.

Research limitations/implications

As yet this model is untested. Clearly, further research is necessary to test the propositions of the authors' model.

Practical implications

In this paper, it is argued that HRIS‐trust is very important in relation to HRIS deployment. Therefore, HRIS suppliers need to have an understanding about the factors influencing trust in HRIS, especially how to increase customer trust in their HRIS products.

Originality/value

Although many previous studies have demonstrated how an organization can initiate and implement human resource information system (HRIS) efficiently and effectively, very few have investigated factors influencing the trust in HRIS. Hence, this research is one of the first exploratory studies to explore such an issue. In addition, a definition and a model of HRIS‐Trust was proposed.
Risk management: the next source of competitive advantage
Authors: Elahi Ehsan
Published: April 2013

Purpose

This paper aims to show how proper risk management capabilities can lead to competitive advantage for a company. There is much evidence that suggests that the current very high level of volatilities in the business world is going to get worse in the years and decades to come. This trend of increasing uncertainties and the resulting risks for businesses, demands a strategic‐level attention to risk management. This strategic‐level attention is warranted by the fact that proper risk management capabilities can lead to competitive advantage.

Design/methodology/approach

The work is conceptual in its approach. The paper also provides many examples from a wide range of industries, as well as the results from other research works to support the finding of the paper.

Findings

The paper first shows how firms' perspective of risk management is evolving. It then characterizes the main drivers behind the trend of increasing uncertainties in the business world which results in higher levels of risk exposure for companies. Finally, the paper characterizes four different ways through which proper risk management capabilities can lead to competitive advantage (depending on different risk categories).

Originality/value

Although the importance of risk management and its potential strategic role has been widely studied in the literature, the question of how risk management capabilities can turn into a competitive advantage has received less attention. The answer to this question might help firms to better understand the strategic role of risk management and the importance of developing a proper set of risk management capabilities. This paper tries to identify the relationship between risk management capabilities and competitive advantage under different types of risks.