bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Surface Feature Interpolation on Two-Dimensional Time-Space Maps
Authors: Ewing G O , Wolfe R
Published: October 2006

A procedure is described for interpolating surface features on a map based on a two-dimensional time-space configuration of points. Initially an objective procedure is used to give a best fit of a previously obtained time-space configuration of points to the physical configuration of the same points. The resultant set of vectors, each of which shows the residual displacement between a point in time space and physical space, is used as the basis of a fast, objective procedure for interpolating any other points or lines in the time space. This enables such things to be shown as the time-space distortion of an urban street network or of a square graticule from physical space. The process can also be reversed so that, for example, the solution points of a facility location problem solved in time space can be converted to their equivalent locations in physical space.
Continuous and Discontinuous Response to Smoothly Decreasing Effective Distance: An Analysis with Special Reference to ‘Overbanking’ in the 1920s
Authors: Smith T R
Published: October 2006

An important problem of general interest concerns the aggregate response of a system to increasing density (or decreasing effective distance between units). An analysis is made for a system in which the individual responses to changing density are smooth. The analysis is presented in terms of the ‘overbanked’ situation of the USA in the 1920s. Models are derived from micro-economic principles concerning the interaction of two banks in competition for deposits as road transportation decreases in relative cost. The conclusion drawn from analysis of the models is that aggregate deposits may increase in a smooth or in a discontinuous (jump) fashion, the jump depending on the nature of an individual banker's response function and occurring despite smooth individual responses. In the case where the system is always in equilibrium, the jump may be a catastrophe in the sense described by Thorn. The analysis indicates that improvements in road transportation may have significantly reduced the stability of the banking system to a point of catastrophic collapse (as well as, for example, overzealous chartering by the authorities). The analysis should have application to many other situations in which decreasing effective distance is an important fact.
Scale Changes and Impacts on Factorial Ecology Structures
Authors: Perle E D
Published: October 2006

Only in the past few years has any attention been directed toward oblique rotations and higher-order analysis in factor analytic research. This paper focuses upon the utility of higher-order analysis by comparing factorial-ecology results for a single set of variables over two differing systems of observational units covering the same area. The necessity for higher-order analysis is demonstrated for sub communities, but not for census tracts. Interpretations of underlying structural configurations from higher-order analysis lead to different perspectives than from lower-order findings. Implications of the results are then related to issues of areal aggregation and structural change.
National Sovereignty and National Power in European Institutions
Authors: Johnston R J
Published: October 2006

A frequently voiced democratic catch phrase is ‘one man, one vote; one vote, one value’. Equality of representation, or proportional representation, is often taken as a guarantee that the democratic criterion is met. Whereas proportional representation may ensure ‘one man, one vote’, however, it is dubious whether it will also ensure ‘one vote, one value’. The latter component is defined here as voting power, and an analytical procedure is outlined which investigates the distribution of power. Application of the procedure to three EEC institutions—the Council of Ministers, the European Assembly, and the European Parliament—indicates clear disparities between the distributions of votes and of power, which have implications for national sovereignty.
Theoretical Properties of Biproportional Matrix Adjustments
Authors: Macgill S M
Published: October 2006

The basic uniqueness and existence properties of biproportional matrix solutions are reviewed and a direct and constructive proof of the convergence of an iterative routine commonly adopted to adjust a given nonnegative matrix to produce a second matrix (biproportional to the first), whose row and column sums are given strictly positive numbers, is offered. Existing convergence proofs, most of which are limited to particular cases of the present form, are considered.
An Evaluation of Lattice Solutions to the Problem of Corridor Location
Authors: Goodchild M F
Published: October 2006

Many route-location problems can be regarded as the minimisation of some accumulated cost, impact, or similar friction per unit length. Analogies can be found with paths of light and other least-time paths, and with geodesics. The problem is often solved by finding a path through a lattice of sample costs, with the use of modified shortest-path algorithms. Lattice paths do not converge to continuous-space paths. The differences are shown to depend on the set of permitted moves in the lattice, with the use of three cases. The continuous-space problem is solved for surfaces described by simple functions and for choropleth surfaces, and compared with lattice solutions. Three heuristic approaches for large problems are reviewed, with emphasis placed on regular spatial aggregation.
Qualitative Multicriteria Analysis: An Application to Airport Location
Authors: Paelinck J
Published: October 2006

A multicriteria method, which can be based on purely qualitative information as to the elements of judgment and their relative weights and set up in a probabilistic way, is first presented briefly. Multicriteria selection is then applied to the problem of airport location, the elements of the relation being taken from Dutch studies on the second national airport. Results are compared with conclusions obtained in these studies, the outcome of the synthesis being a single probability table.
Regional Taxonomy Using Trend-Surface Coefficients and Invariants
Authors: Cliff A D , Kelly F P
Published: October 2006

The coefficients of polynomial trend surfaces are a function of the origin and orientation of the grid coordinate system chosen for the analysis. This hampers the interregional comparison of such surfaces. In this paper, some transformations of the calculated surface coefficients are defined which are invariant of grid origin and orientation. Their use is illustrated with an application to some housing density data for fifteen US metropolitan areas.
Accessibility Measures and the Social Evaluation of Urban Structure
Authors: Black J , Conroy M
Published: October 2006

The measurement of accessibility and travel patterns in urban areas is described. The methodology presented includes graphical measures of physical accessibility, a numerical index of accessibility that is consistent with graphical measures, residents' accessibility weighted by transport availability, and the relationship between accessibility and travel behaviour. Some empirical results are presented for access and travel to male and female jobs in Sydney, with the use of data collected for the 1971 Census of Population and for the Sydney Area Transportation Study. The consequences of some alternative arrangements of land use and plans to improve public transport on residents' accessibility are investigated. It is argued that accessibility measures are a useful aid to planners and policymakers in the social evaluation of urban structure.
Empirically Derived Deterrence Functions for Maximum Performance Spatial Interaction Models
Authors: Openshaw S , Connolly C J
Published: October 2006

The relationship between the choice of deterrence function and the goodness of fit of a singly constrained spatial interaction model is examined as a basis for improving model performance. The results show that there is no significant improvement in model goodness of fit until a deterrence-function characterisation is used which is based on a family of functions, with the spatial domain of each function being determined in an approximately optimal manner. These findings are consistent with theoretical research on microlevel trip behaviour and can be used to identify descriptive models which possess maximum levels of performance.
Urban Planning in Theory and Practice: A Reappraisal
Authors: Scott A J , Roweis S T
Published: October 2006

In this paper an attempt is made to discover the sociohistorical meaning, rationality, and limits of urban planning. The paper falls into five major sections. First, some rudimentary criteria are suggested as a basis for identifying the principal tasks of a theory of planning. Second, an attempt is made to situate contemporary urbanization processes within the capitalist mode of production. Third, planning itself is then situated within and derived out of the historical dynamic of capitalist urbanization. Fourth, conventional urban planning theory is criticized. Fifth, some questions of urban policy and political practice are discussed.
Sequential Fixed Cost Evaluators: A Probabilities Approach
Authors: Tipple G , Rowley G
Published: October 2006

The continuing consideration of the ‘priority-evaluator approach’ demonstrates how one may formulate and test hypotheses relating to the priority-evaluator data rather than merely present subjective evaluations of the data. Earlier reports, which considered only the initial round of the game, are reviewed, while the second part of the game is introduced, together with attendant analytical problems, particularly in testing against randomness. Within this second round, further ‘resources' are presented for reconsideration and allocation within the gaming format. It is suggested that this general yet simple sequential strategy, that can be quite easily modified or extended for individual requirements, possesses a deal of potential for behavioural research.
If Cities are So Great, Why are People Leaving? A Response to Vining and Kontuly
Authors: Tregarthen T D
Published: October 2006

Recent declines in the populations of some major metropolitan regions may not be inconsistent with the notion of agglomeration economies. An analysis of utility maximizing behavior in the choice of city size suggests that an increase in such economies may be the cause of outmigration from large cities, and that, in any event, increases in incomes across all cities should, ceteris paribus, induce such outmigration.
A Two-Stage Model of Tenure Mobility
Authors: Jones C , Gudjonsson S , Lewis J Parry
Published: October 2006

This paper examines the sequential nature of the residential-mobility decisionmaking process. Initially a model of household tenure mobility is considered, consisting of two stages, the decision to move and the choice of tenure; ultimately this assumption is relaxed. Multiple discriminant analysis is used to distinguish between the different groups of households, between movers and nonmovers, and between different tenures, on the basis of a set of variables describing the socioeconomic characteristics of the household. Life-style and demographic factors are shown to influence more the tenure moved to than the decision to move. And although various factors appear to influence the mobility decision in the different tenures, the age of the household is generally found to be the most important discriminator.
Forecasting in Urban and Regional Planning Closed Loops: The Examples of Road and Air Traffic Forecasts
Authors: Bennett R J
Published: October 2006

Attempts to forecast in situations in which the leading indicators are also used as policy variables are beset by a number of statistical problems which affect the specification of the forecasting model, estimation of its parameters, and the design of policy itself. The main effects are that when there is perfect policy feedback the forecasting model cannot be identified at all; when there is partial or imperfect feedback the forecasting model is collinear, underidentified, and least-squares parameter estimates will be biased. Estimation procedures available in closed loops are reviewed, and the application of these methods to road and air traffic forecasting is discussed.
Social Accounts and Planning for Changes in Urban Housing Markets
Authors: Byler J W , Gale S
Published: October 2006

A conception of the housing market as a lagged, dynamic matching process is presented as an alternative to the conventional microeconomic formulation. Various components of changes in occupancy patterns are identified, in a general multidimensional accounting framework, as a means for the structuring of observations of household and dwelling-unit characteristics of urban populations. Parameters for several stochastic models of housing-market phenomena are derived from the account-based representation. Finally, potential planning applications of these accounting frameworks are explored together with conditions for their adoption.
A Comment on “Evaluating the Possibilities for Exchanging Regional Input—Output Coefficients”
Authors: Thumann R G
Published: October 2006

It is shown that the testing of the applicability of the RAS technique by comparing actual sectoral gross outputs of a region A with sectoral gross outputs derived from an input–output table of another region B, after the table has been RAS-adjusted to the input–output table of region A, is not a valid procedure. A similar argument holds when this kind of test is applied in a forecasting context where the projected values of sectoral gross outputs of region A are assumed to yield the true estimates. Finally a suggestion is made as to what might be a fruitful way of improving constrained matrix-adjustment techniques.
Invariant Distributional Regularities of Nonbasic Spatial Activity Allocations: The Garin—Lowry Model Revisited
Authors: Schinnar A P
Published: October 2006

This paper extends the Garin–Lowry model of spatial activity allocations along its demographic dimension. The zonal distribution of activities in the nonbasic (service) sector is shown to be stable irrespective of variations in the zonal distribution of activities in the basic (export) sector. This conjectured regularity is explained by observed similarities in the rates of consumption and in the demographic structure of the population in various zones of a region. Also variations in patterns of journeys from work to home do not appear to have a significant effect on nonbasic spatial-activity allocations.
Municipal Planning in a Mixed Economy
Authors: Khakee A
Published: October 2006

Municipal Planning in a mixed economy is subjected to two sets of restrictions: Those caused by the character of the politicoeconomic system and those arising from the relationship between the central and the municipal government. Planning methods need to take these restrictions into explicit consideration if they are to be useful. This paper discusses the first set of restrictions in connection with the analysis of economic planning in France and Sweden. The ‘degree of plannedness' (manner and extent of planning) is related to the extent of governmental control with regard to the plan itself, its construction, and its implementation. The second set of restrictions is either of legal and ‘regulatory’ nature or defined by the economic relationship between the central and the local government. Thus municipal plans in a mixed economy become a flexible guide to municipal policymaking rather than a control instrument over municipal development.
Regional Multiplier Analysis: A Demometric Approach
Authors: Ledent J
Published: October 2006

This paper reports on the design and testing of an adequate framework for conducting regional multiplier studies in areas experiencing rapid population growth. It puts forward the demometric approach, one that applies econometric methods to the analysis of demoeconomic growth.

Two alternative models are proposed here. The first is an aggregate model presenting a demometric revision of the traditional economic-base model. The second model, an enlarged version of the first, is characterized by a breakdown of economic activities into nine major sectors. Both models are fitted to data for the rapidly growing metropolitan area of Tucson, Arizona, USA. They are then used to derive tentative impact and dynamic multipliers which substantiate the role of households as consumers and suppliers of labor in the development of the Tucson Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area (SMSA). The major finding is that, for the same level of resources, the second model yields better policy implications than the modified (and therefore also than the traditional) economic-base model.
Optimization of Rural—Urban Development and Migration
Authors: Kulikowski R
Published: October 2006

This paper deals with rural–urban migration and the impact of migration on regional development. The general problem of optimal allocation of production factors in time and space is introduced in order to derive the most satisfactory migration strategy. In describing the regional economy by means of a generalized Cobb–Douglas production function, the general problem is decomposed into two levels. At the first level, optimal allocation of factors in time is solved in an explicit form using the generalized Hoelder inequality. At the second level, a spatial strategy is derived and the principle of spatial allocation of production factors is formulated. By use of the optimal strategies, the simple two-sector model (that is, agriculture and the rest of the economy) is investigated, and the labor surpluses in Polish agriculture and in an agricultural region in Poland are calculated.
The Relationship between Timing of Moves and Choice of Destination in Stochastic Models of Migration
Authors: Ginsberg R B
Published: October 2006

The importance of studying the relationship between the timing of moves and the choice of destination is discussed in terms of theories of migration decision processes and of methodological issues in the analysis of migration histories. Special attention is given to duration-of-residence effects. Statistical procedures based on the theory of competing risks and semi-Markov processes are developed and applied to residence histories of Norwegian men, 1965–1971. Subject to several qualifications, the results confirm the hypothesis that decisions of whether to move and where to go are independent. The methods can be used in many analogous problem areas where timing and multiple outcomes are of concern.
Increment—Decrement Life Tables: Some Further Comments from a Demographic-Accounting Point of View
Authors: Rees P H
Published: October 2006

The paper examines the problem of the estimation of the correct probabilities needed as input to a multiregional life table. A variety of alternative methods are examined by use of an expanded notation and a hypothetical test case. This theoretical investigation suggests that methods proposed by previous researchers are in error and an alternative method is proposed. However, this error is likely to be small in cases where the probabilities of transition from one region to another are small.
An Empirical Study of Some Zone-Design Criteria
Authors: Openshaw S
Published: October 2006

The results obtained from studies of spatially aggregated data are not independent of the choice of zoning system. The paper investigates the effects of different zone-design criteria on a linear-regression model. It is concluded that there is unlikely to be either a simple or general-purpose solution to the problem.
Performing Land-Capability Evaluation by Use of Numerical Taxonomy: Land Use and Environmental Decisionmaking Made Hard?
Authors: Gordon S I
Published: October 2006

Researchers have attempted to incorporate environmental variables into the land-use planning process by use of several ranking and mapping formulations. Most of these are based on some type of classification scheme. More recently, multivariate statistical techniques have been utilized to classify land areas into groups with similar suitability for urban development. A test was made of one of these numerical taxonomic techniques on a data set from Medford Township, New Jersey, and the results analyzed in terms of the pros and cons of these methods. A group of 484 forty-acre grid cells with forty-two environmental variables was collapsed into a ten variable set for ten groups of grid cells having like characteristics. The analysis involved two steps, factor analysis followed by a euclidean-distance-classification algorithm. The results show that numerical taxonomy can greatly facilitate the analysis of large environmental data sets and can help to identify the ecological relationships in quantitative terms. However, the complexity of the statistical methods involved greatly limits the wide application of these techniques, and the use of numerical taxonomic results in land-capability evaluation cannot release the researcher from making many judgmental decisions.
The Pilgrimage to Mecca: An Explanatory and Predictive Model
Authors: Rowley G , El-Hamdan S A S
Published: October 2006

The recent and continuing phenomenal growth in the numbers undertaking the pilgrimage to Mecca is considered against the backcloth of the host region's finite resources. A multiple-regression model is developed which seeks to explain the present pattern of pilgrim movement and to predict future numbers. Insights are provided into the actual stage-by-stage development towards the final model. The assumptions implicit within our evaluations are clearly and unequivocably indicated and discussed. Improved levels of explanation result from more-realistic data inputs. Future pilgrim numbers are predicted for 1983 and 1993. The problem of the ever increasing numbers of pilgrims is briefly alluded to and interim measures are suggested.
A Note on the Calibration of Maximum-Performance Spatial-Interaction Models
Authors: Baxter M J
Published: October 2006

Evidence is presented to show that the improvement in model performance achieved by the family of maximum-performance spatial-interaction models developed by Openshaw and Connolly (1977) may be explicable solely for statistical reasons and that there is no need for a geographical or behavioural explanation, as was suggested.
A Mathematical Theory of Migration
Authors: Tobler W R
Published: October 2006

Section 1 considers growth of a population; section 2 treats geographical migration by analogy to the flow of heat; section 3 combines sections 1 and 2 and includes immigration; in section 4 are assembled empirical observations taken from the recent United States experience. These are designed to provide a test of the theory.
Toward More Realistic Allocation in Location—Allocation Models: An Interaction Approach
Authors: Hodgson M J
Published: October 2006

Location—allocation models jointly specify the optimal locations of service facilities and the allocation of patrons to them. Almost without exception, the allocation rule employed in these models has assumed that patrons wish to use the facility at the least travel cost away from them. Spatial interaction theory suggests that a person's travel behaviour is influenced by many other factors, among them differential facility attractiveness and uncertainty about travel costs, and that the least-cost allocation rule is unrealistic. This paper presents a location—allocation model employing an entropy-maximizing interaction model to allocate patrons to facilities. A heuristic solution procedure is proposed and found to be effective and reasonably efficient for small problems. Insofar as travel behaviour in the system is suboptimal, the location—allocation model produces suboptimal solutions. In the interests of providing realistic solutions to real-world problems, however, it is essential that planners accommodate the behaviour of those they plan for, be it normative or not.
Models of Hierarchically Dominated Spatial Interactiona
Authors: Goodchild M F , Kwan Mi Yee Carmen
Published: October 2006

Strongly asymmetrical spatial flows are analyzed by using as example the flows of news between major Canadian cities. Conceptually such flows can be modelled by combining a vertical dimension of dominance with two spatial dimensions. The conceptual model is interpreted mathematically by appropriate use of the attraction and emissivity terms in the spatial interaction model. A family of models is identified and calibrated using the Canadian data, allowing the positions of cities on the dominance dimension to be identified. By inverting the model it is possible to scale positions in the spatial dimensions to reflect interaction more correctly. The result is a three-dimensional image which gives a ‘fuzzy’ interpretation to the conventional topological tree model of a hierarchy. Relationships with Tobler's ‘winds' model are examined.
Fertility Differentials and Their Impact on Population Distribution and Composition in Northern Ireland
Authors: Compton P A
Published: October 2006

The geographical variability of fertility in Northern Ireland is described and related to the factors of religious denomination, social class, and proportion of the population who are married. Although the substantial differences in birthrate from one region to another have a significant impact on population composition, it is concluded that internal migration rather than natural increase is the more important component of regional population growth and changing population distribution.
Urban Planning of Locational Structures with Due Regard to User Behaviour
Authors: Lundqvist L
Published: October 2006

The frequently used dichotomy between optimum and equilibrium in urban development planning reflects the importance of combining the welfare aspect and the behavioural aspect of urban performance. Whereas long-term investments and structural policies are often evaluated in terms of overall criteria of system performance, the development of behavioural relations is more properly described in terms of user-optimized choices. The combination of these aspects is difficult to cover in model building.

This paper reviews some previous integrated approaches (for example, in transportation planning) and describes how a model for long-term infrastructural planning can be interlinked with an aggregated demand model of transportation behaviour. Applications from Stockholm regional planning conclude the paper. Two recent proposals for land use in 1990 are compared with model-generated structural developments, and the impacts of structural changes on behavioural patterns are analyzed.
White Flight and Central-City Loss: Application of an Analytic Migration Framework
Authors: Frey W H
Published: October 2006

This paper utilizes an analytic migration framework to assess the aggregate impact of selected community-level factors on white population losses experienced in central cities of large metropolitan areas. The framework identifies analytically distinct components of local and long-distance migration streams which contribute directly to central-city population change. Each component can be specified as a function of community-level attributes which are relevant to the explanation of specific in- and out-movement streams.

In this application, previously advanced racial and nonracial attributes of central cities and their surrounding suburbs are used to estimate framework components based on 1970 census data for white movement streams associated with the central cities of large SMSAs. These estimates are then used to ascertain the impact that the central-city racial composition exerts on net white out-migration from selected cities. The data demonstrate that the aggregate impact of racially linked ‘white flight’ has been minimal.
An Evaluation Method for Environmental-Systems Planning: An Alternative Utility Approach
Authors: Seo F , Sakawa M
Published: October 2006

This paper is concerned with constructing a comprehensive standard for evaluating regional environmental systems. Because such systems are composed of complex natural, economic, and social systems, conventional engineering and economic methods are virtually ineffective for this purpose. Systems-analysis methods appear suited to providing proper evaluation as well as effective control of environmental systems. But, in applying systems analysis to environmental evaluation, we are faced with the problem of measuring numerically the level of satisfaction of the region's residents. Environmental systems are very large in scale, and the components (attributes) which contribute to quality of life are not only many and various but often conflict with each other. In addition they are not commensurable. Therefore new methodologies for evaluating environmental systems must be developed. In such complex large-scale systems analyses, it is necessary, whatever the method used, to structure objectives by means of decomposition and ordering, and the construction of a preference hierarchy is an effective way to perform this structuring. The utility approach to decision analysis is employed to choose the best solutions under this interactive procedure. However, environmental systems also permit, to some extent, the possibility of mathematical formulation in a more rigorous form. Shadow prices (dual optimal variables) are good criteria for evaluating a constrained system's performance. We provide some devices (1) to utilize dual variables obtained in mathematical programming, (2) to nest them into multiattribute utility functions in a hierarchical system, (3) to articulate value trade-offs, and (4) to clarify priorities among objectives. These four procedures constitute the nested Lagrangian-multiplier method.
Quadratic versus Linear Models for Land-Use Plan Design
Authors: Hopkins L D
Published: October 2006

Quadratic assignment models and linear-programming models have been proposed for land-use plan design. The models represent transportation and divisibility of production differently and have solution algorithms with very different properties, but the most important distinction is that quadratic assignment models can handle externalities whereas linear models without integer side conditions cannot. Therefore quadratic models are useful for plan-making in response to externalities problems, whereas linear models can be used only for plan-making in response to dynamics problems.
The Robustness of Two Common Heuristics for the p-Median Problem
Authors: Rosing K E , Hillsman E L , Rosing-Vogelaar Hester
Published: October 2006

Optimal p-median solutions were computed for six test problems on a network of forty-nine demand nodes and compared with solutions from two heuristic algorithms. Comparison of the optimal solutions with those from the Teitz and Bart heuristic indicates that this heuristic is very robust. Tests of the Maranzana heuristic, however, indicate that it is efficient only for small values of p (numbers of facilities) and that its robustness decreases rapidly as problem size increases.
Neighborhood Evaluation in Residential Mobility
Authors: Cadwallader M T
Published: October 2006

The evaluative dimensions used to rate neighborhoods, within the context of residential mobility, are investigated. It is shown that different sets of dimensions are used to evaluate different neighborhoods, although similar dimensions tend to be used for similar neighborhoods. There is also evidence that the relative importance of the neighborhood attributes, in terms of determining neighborhood preferences, are not invariant across different neighborhoods. Both these findings suggest that the evaluative process may be largely context specific.
Empirical Studies of Journeys to Work by Modes of Transport in Greater London: 1966 and 1971
Authors: Khaw K H
Published: October 2006

With the use of 1971 journey-to-work census data for London, the spatial distributions of home and workplace locations at different distances from the city centre were analysed for the main modes of transport. The relationships among the fundamental quantities such as density, trip length, modal split, and level of car ownership were also investigated. These analyses were compared with those of corresponding 1966 data. The comparisons show that although the home density in 1971 within the first 2 km from the city centre decreased by approximately 21%, while the workplace density decreased only by approximately 4%, the actual number of workplaces within this range of distance fell by about 2·5 times that of the homes. The overall decrease in homes and workplaces resulted in a 9% drop in the total number of internal trips for London as a whole. Resolving these trips by modes of transport shows that rail, bus, and walk trips had decreased while car trips had increased. As a result, the most common mode of transport to work switched from bus in 1966 to car in 1971. This also contributed to the overall increase in the average trip length in 1971. The analysis on the level of car ownership for 1971 shows that more than 50% of the households located more than 12 km from the city centre had at least one car. On average, the number of cars per household in 1971 was approximately 0·64.
Regional-Development Optimization for the Delhi Region of India
Authors: Gupta J D , Hutchinson B G
Published: October 2006

Rapid population growths in the Delhi metropolitan area created by a strong expansion of the economic base have led to the adoption of decentralization policies for the region. A regional-scale land-use–transport model is developed which may be used for the analysis of decentralization options. The model searches for regional-development configurations that minimize the combined costs of providing urban infrastructure and of intercity transport. The objective function is a nonlinear function of the regional activity distribution, and a sequential search procedure is used to identify the least-cost alternative. The capabilities of this allocation-simulation model are demonstrated by several example analyses for the Delhi commuter region.
Population Dynamics of Cities in a Region: Conditions for a State of Simultaneous Growth
Authors: Okabe A
Published: October 2006

This paper first proposes a nonlinear dynamic migration model that describes the population dynamics of cities in a region. Second, by use of this model, several theorems are proved about the conditions necessary for (1) a state of simultaneous growth (that is, when the population of every city in a region increases simultaneously), and (2) a state of proportional growth (that is, when every city's proportion of the total population remains the same over time). Third, based upon the data analysis of interprefectural migration flows in Japan in 1970, some empirical implications of these theorems are considered.
Experimental Analysis of Eleven Models of Urban Population Density
Authors: Zielinski K
Published: October 2006

Seven models of the quadratic gamma type (negative-exponential, normal, inverse-power, quadratic negative-exponential, gamma, normal gamma, and quadratic gamma distributions) and the equilibrium models of Amson are tested by use of data from Bristol, Coventry, Derby, Leicester, Nottingham, Leeds, and Bradford. The first five of these cities are tested at two levels: By use of all radial distances and by use of only those less than four kilometres. The object of these tests was to detect differences in goodness of fit at the city centre and overall. The last two cities were used to test a model proposed to describe intercity population distributions.
Calibrating a Model of the Decision to Move
Authors: Clark W A V , Huff J O , Burt J E
Published: October 2006

A previously published paper established that neither the cumulative-inertia hypothesis nor the independent-trials models were adequate explanations of observed mobility rates for individuals with different prior residential histories (Clark and Huff, 1977). An alternative model of the probability of moving incorporated the independent-trials model and cumulative inertia as special cases (Huff and Clark, 1978). In the present paper the model is restated, calibrated, and tested with a sample of household-mobility data from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. Tests of the deterministic and stochastic versions of the model indicate that both versions adequately reproduce the residential-history trees.
Progress, Success, and Failure in Urban Modelling
Authors: Batty M
Published: October 2006

This essay is an attempt to describe from three related perspectives the successes and failures characterising the short but turbulent history of urban modelling: from the broader perspectives of knowledge or scientific theory, and of action or design; and from the narrower perspective of the modelling activity itself. It is argued that modelling is concerned solely neither with science nor with design but with both; that is, it is concerned with the relationship between science and design and must be examined accordingly. Various arguments pertaining to these themes are elaborated in terms of the inadequacy of its theory and the dictates imposed by policy. Viewed from the individual perspectives of science or design, modelling is often judged a dismal failure but in this essay it is argued that as such views are necessarily incomplete, some compromise must be sought. In these terms, the field manifests a limited success. Much has been learned about the activity itself but, as in all situations involving immature science, the real value of these experiences may be in raising awareness of the conflicts and dilemmas which occur when uncertain knowledge is applied to problems whose perception is continually changing.
Basic Human Needs versus Economic Growth Approach for Coping with Urban—Rural Imbalances: An Evaluation Based on Relative Welfare
Authors: Mera K
Published: October 2006

Increasing attention is being paid to the ‘basic human needs' approach for reducing imbalances within a developing country, urban—rural imbalances being important among them. However, as investment for meeting basic human needs is not directly productive, the future growth of the economy would have to be sacrificed if this approach is taken.

In this paper the development implications of two approaches, the economic growth and the basic human needs approaches, are projected through a simulation model, and they are evaluated relative to each other. It is shown that, even if the evaluation is based on the criterion of the relative position of the rural population to the urban population, low-income countries would be better off with the economic growth approach after about ten years. For middle- and high-income countries, the basic human needs approach deserves serious consideration.
Interactive Groups with Related Limited Efficiency
Authors: Paelinck J H P
Published: October 2006

A model is set up in which two groups can potentially interact but this interaction is subject to some limitations. It is shown how allocation of resources proceeds under such conditions. The following results were obtained: asymptotically the dominated group is allowed some share of total resources; this is true even when the dominating group handles only an ‘egoistic’ objective function; fluctuations can be introduced by the allocative actions of the dominating group; threshold phenomena for reversing actions can be isolated; dominating actions can be used to combat cyclical behaviour of the system.

One of the conclusions is that techniques like differential gaming might be adequate for exploring simultaneously satisfactory relations.
Combined Residential-Location and Transportation Models
Authors: Los M
Published: October 2006

Predictive models which combine residential location with transportation are presented in this paper. These models predict residential location and the use and performance of the transportation system for exogenously given total housing stock and employment locations. One can use them to determine the impact on the transportation system of changes in the supply of housing or reciprocally to determine the impact on housing choices of new investments in the transportation system. They are formulated as mathematical programs generalizing the Herbert–Stevens model of residential location to include previously proposed equilibrium models of trip assignment, trip distribution, and modal choice. A solution methodology is proposed for prediction and calibration.
The Modelling of Urban Population Density: A Survey
Authors: Zielinski K
Published: October 2006

This paper presents a state-of-the-art review of the principal models of urban population density, including the seven members of the quadratic gamma family and Amson's equilibrium models. A historical introduction is followed by a review of basic assumptions, and then each model is analysed individually, with separate discussions of principal theoretical findings and experimental results.
Urban Planning and Social Welfare
Authors: Walker B
Published: October 2006

The rationale which welfare economics provides for urban planning activity seems to be fairly well established, and welfare economic theory can thus be seen as a valuable basis for a theory of planning. However, two major issues concerning the impact of planning activity on social welfare still need to be considered even if this basis is accepted. The first of these is the question of distribution. If society considers some distributions of welfare superior to others and if, as welfare theory demonstrates, each resource (re)allocation has different distributions associated with it, then the degree to which planning activity in affecting the allocation of resources actually leads to an increase in social welfare depends on the distributional effects of that activity and the criteria by which they are judged. The second issue is that of the legitimacy of the sort of intervention into individuals' activities which planning represents, and the degree to which intervention, even if justified theoretically, is in practice welfare-maximizing. It is concluded that although welfare economic analysis does provide many insights into the implications of urban planning for social welfare, the issues of distribution and intervention which are crucial to any consideration of the welfare effects of planning can be resolved only by reference to values the justification for which lie outside traditional welfare economic theory itself.
A Probability Model for the Effects of Distance on the Demand for Multiple Facilities
Authors: Tapiero C S
Published: October 2006

Probability models are developed for assessing the probable effects of distance on the demand for one and several facilities. A solution of these models leads to binomial approximate Poisson, super-Poisson, and mixed distributions.
Alice through the Looking Glass: Marginalisation in the Aboriginal Town Camps of Alice Springs
Authors: Drakakis-Smith D
Published: October 2006

This paper was written immediately following an extensive period of fieldwork in the small Australian town of Alice Springs. It was deliberately written before most of the statistical results of various surveys were available in order to crystallise the less quantifiable impressions and features of the Aboriginal position in the town around a conceptual framework of societal relations. The few studies of urban Aborigines to date have been more descriptive than analytical. To this end, and based upon my own previous field experiences, I have borrowed from contemporary Third World studies the notions of marginality and marginalisation, and assessed the situation in Alice Springs in these terms. The reasons for this particular choice of concepts was partly because of the location of Alice Springs in ‘colonial’ Australia but primarily because of the etymological and philosophical links with the prevailing opinion of most Aborigines in Alice Springs as fringe dwellers—people on the margins of the town and its society. There have been few attempts to examine the position of Aborigines in contemporary Australia in conceptual terms and this effort will undoubtedly have many shortcomings. However, its purpose is not to be definitive but rather to stimulate further investigation and discussion.
Multistate Demography and its Data: A Comment
Authors: Keyfitz N
Published: October 2006

Much of sociology and practically all of demography deal with transitions of people from one state at a certain moment to another state a year or more later. It is now clear that all such calculations of transition or movement are formally identical with what may be called the basic migration problem. The arithmetic for handling people moving from the single to the married state is identical with that for them moving from New York to Pennsylvania. The papers in this issue cover a wide range of substantive problems and exemplify several points concerning the methodology of demography. They provide a fair sample of multidimensional theory, of the means of application to data, and of the results of that application. They demonstrate the advantage of incorporating several demographic processes in a single model, even though they leave some questions unanswered.
Modeling out-Migration from Depressed Regions: The Significance of Origin and Destination Characteristics
Authors: Clark G L , Ballard K P
Published: October 2006

Many migration models, whether derived from the Hicksian macroadjustment approach or from human capital theory, use simultaneously origin and destination variables in their empirical testing procedures. In this paper it is hypothesized that the actual out-migration decision process has two separate but interrelated stages—the decision to leave and the decision as to the destination. A two-stage estimation procedure is used to analyze the significance of origin characteristics as determinants of out-migration, and the factors that allocate migrants to particular destinations. The model is applied to understanding the patterns and determinants of out-migration from a depressed region, the Central Appalachians of the United States of America. Time-series and cross-sectional models are utilized to evaluate the hypothesized two-stage process over the period 1958–1975.
Calibrating Urban Residential Location Models 3: Empirical Results for Non-US Cities
Authors: Putman S H
Published: October 2006

This paper is the third in a series describing extensive empirical verification (by parameter estimation) of the Disaggregated Residential Allocation Model (DRAM). The first paper in this series, Putman and Ducca (1978a), described procedures for estimating the parameters of this type of model when trip interchange (O-D trip matrices) are unavailable. The second paper in this series, Putman and Ducca (1978b), described the results of estimating parameters in this way for a dozen US cities. This paper continues the work with parameter estimation for more than a dozen disparate non-US cities. The results lend even greater confirmation of the descriptive validity of this type of model.
Exchanging Regional Input—Output Coefficients: A Reply and Further Comments
Authors: Hewings G J D , Janson B N
Published: October 2006

Some issues raised by Thumann in response to an earlier article by Hewings are addressed in the context of discovering efficient ways of exchanging input–output coefficients. Several extensions to the RAS procedure are reviewed; in particular, attention is focused on the issue of fixing certain coefficients prior to the application of biproportional adjustment algorithms. An appendix contains a discussion of measures which minimize the distance between two matrices.
Calculation of the Equilibrium Configuration of Shopping Facility Sizes
Authors: Phiri P A
Published: October 2006

This paper presents a range of methods for computing the equilibrium configuration of shopping facility sizes. First, the presently available range of quasi-balancing factor methods is considered and built into a theoretical framework in which further algorithms may be defined. Then the use of the gradient method is considered, which is a general method of solution of nonlinear equations. Last, it is shown that a special case exists in which a closed form solution may be obtained.