Processing center “Petropavlovsk” in seismic subsystem of Tsunami Warning System in Russian Far East in 2010-2018
Authors: Чебров Данила Викторович 
Published: October 2021

На основе накопленного эмпирического материала исследуется вопрос о реальных характеристиках сейсмической подсистемы Системы предупреждения о цунами (СП СПЦ), созданной на Дальнем Востоке России в 2006-2010 гг. Детальный анализ реакции системы и точности оценок координат землетрясений проведен на примере Камчатки как регионе с самой высокой сейсмической активностью на Дальнем Востоке, который приемлемо обеспечен сейсмическими наблюдениями. Установлено, что СП СПЦ демонстрирует стабильно высокие характеристики на протяжении всего периода эксплуатации, они удовлетворяют требованиям, заложенным при проектировании СП СПЦ. Кроме того, выделены районы, для которых качество оценок параметров землетрясений находится вблизи предельных значений - Северные Курилы и сегмент Алеутской дуги восточнее Командорских островов. Основная причина пониженного качества работы СП СПЦ при обработке землетрясений в этих районах - недостаточная обеспеченность наблюдениями Курильских и Алеутских островов.

The new Tsunami Warning System in Russian Far East was created in 2006-2010, and it is on duty for more than eight years. The TWS-2010 replaced the old TWS-1958 that had been developed in 1950s after the Great Kamchatka earthquake in 1952. The main method in TWS is still the seismic method, based on the magnitude-geographical criterion. Therefore, the seismic subsystem of TWS can be called a key component that affects the characteristics of entire system. In this paper the problem of real characteristics of seismic subsystem of TWS is examined. The main characteristics that affect the entire TWS efficiency are the system reaction time and coordinate estimates accuracy. A detailed analysis of these characteristics is carried out on the example of Kamchatka. This region was chosen because of the highest seismicity and rather good system of seismic observations. Empirical distributions of system reaction times and coordinate accuracy are considered. Parameters of these distributions describe the quality of TWS processing. The detailed analysis of spatial distribution of reaction times and coordinate estimates accuracy made it possible to reveal “good” and “bad” areas for TWS processing. It was found out, that seismic subsystem of TWS shows consistently high performance throughout the entire period of operation. Reaction times and coordinate estimates accuracy satisfy the regulation requirements of TWS. The detailed analysis for spatial distribution of reaction times and coordinate estimates accuracy made it possible to conclude that most part of the Kamchatka region is covered by accurate and rapid TWS estimates. In the same time, low performance regions were revealed. Reaction times and coordinate accuracy in these regions are near the limit values, according to regulations of TWS. These low performance areas include North Kuril and Aleutian trench area (east of the Commander islands). The main reason for the reduced quality of TWS processing of earthquakes occurring in these areas is the lack of seismic observations of the Kuril and Aleutian Islands.