bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Use of a modified open patch‐graft technique and valvulectomy for correction of severe pulmonic stenosis in dogs: eight consecutive cases
Authors: HUNT GB , PEARSON MRB , BELLENGER CR , MALIK R
Published: August 2010

SUMMARYA modified open patch‐graft technique was used to correct congenital pulmonic stenosis in 8 dogs. Pulmonary valve dysplasia was moderate to severe in all cases, based upon clinical and echocardiographic criteria, and 3 dogs were in right‐sided congestive heart failure at the time of surgery. Seven of the 8 dogs survived the surgery. One surviving dog displayed cerebral cortical dysfunction, the remaining 6 had no detectable neurological sequelae. Right ventricular failure was alleviated in all 7 surviving dogs, but right ventricular dilatation persisted post‐operatively.

Pulmonary valvulectomy and open patch‐grafting provides an effective means of alleviating signs of congestive heart failure caused by pulmonary valve dysplasia, even In the presence of severe infundibular hypertrophy and dynamic outflow obstruction.
The relationship between the prevalence of uterine lesions and the use of medroxyprogesterone acetate for canine population control
Authors: BERKY AG VON , TOWNSEND WL
Published: August 2010

SUMMARY The prevalence of uterine disease was established during desexing of 175 bitches in the Torres Strait and Cape York, 42 of which had been treated with injectable medroxyprogesterone acetate (MPA) for oestrus postponement. The prevalence of uterine lesions was 45% for treated bitches, 5% for untreated bitches, and 14.9% for the sample population. A highly significant relationship (P<0.01) between MPA treatment and uterine lesions was established. A significant association (P<0.05) between age (>2 years old) and uterine lesions was found, most likely attributable to a significantly higher proportion (P<0.01) of MPA‐treated bitches in the older population. There was no significant difference in the effect of MPA on the prevalence of uterine lesions between older and younger bitches. There was no effect of parity on the prevalence of uterine lesions.
A study of the microbial flora of the anterior vagina of normal sows during different stages of the reproductive cycle
Authors: BARA MR , McGOWAN MR , O'BOYLE D , CAMERON RDA
Published: August 2010

SUMMARY Sterile guarded swabs were used to sample the anterior vaginal and cervical area of 23 normal healthy sows during various stages of the reproductive cycle. The samples were collected one week before farrowing, within 24 hours of farrowing, weekly up to weaning, at mating and at 2 and 3 weeks after mating, and then plated and incubated aerobically and anaerobically. At least one positive sample was obtained from each sow and at each stage of the reproductive cycle. Most positive samples (78.3%) were obtained on the day of farrowing and the least 3 weeks after mating (19.0%). The second highest number of positive samples (45.5%) was found immediately after mating. Although there was no significant difference among sows of different parities, there was a trend for older sows to have more positive samples after farrowing (84.6%). There was a greater decrease in positive samples after farrowing and after mating among younger sows compared with older sows. A wide range of bacteria including aerobic and anaerobic species, were recovered from 142 Isolates. The more representative bacteria were Streptococcus spp (23.2%); Escherichia coll (22.5%); Staphylococcus spp (19.0%) and Corynebacterium spp (13.4%). Of the cultures, 54.7% were pure and 45.3% were mixed. Both the percentage of bacterial isolates as well as the type of culture (pure or mixed) were similar to those frequently reported in clinical cases of vulval discharge syndrome. The results indicate that sows usually develop infections of the reproductive tract at farrowing and mating but these infections do not normally persist.
Studies on preweaning piglet diarrhoea
Authors: DRIESEN SJ , CARLAND PG , FAHY VA
Published: August 2010

SUMMARYThe aim of this study was to determine the cause and risk factors Involved in preweaning piglet diarrhoea. Faecal samples from 2380 diarrhoeic piglets, 5 to 30 days of age, were examined for enteropathogens.Isospora sulsoocysts were detected in 53.8% of samples,Escherichia collin 18.2% and rotavirus in 16.9%.I suishad the widest distribution, being present on 70.9% of 151 piggeries. The onset of diarrhoea occurred mainly between 7 and 14 days (77.5%), peaking at 10 days. Records of 4086 litters from two intensive piggeries were analysed and showed no seasonal variation or effect of sow parity on the incidence of piglet diarrhoea.I suiswas the most common enteropathogen associated with diarrhoea in piglets from 5 days of age until weaning.
Article
Authors: STEWART AA , RUSH B , DAVIS E
Published: August 2010

ObjectiveTo document the efficacy of intratumoural injections of 5‐fluorouracil for the treatment of equine sarcoids.

DesignA prospective study that included 13 horses and one donkey.

ProcedureSarcoids were confirmed by histological examination and treated with intratumoural 5‐fluorouracil every 2 weeks. If the sarcoids did not resolve after seven treatments, treatment was considered a failure. All cases were re‐examined 6 months after treatment commenced and owners were telephoned 3 years after commencement of treatment to report on tumour recurrence. Outcome comparisons were performed to determine the effect of previous treatment, tumour size and tumour location on sarcoid resolution. The efficacy of intratumoural 5‐fluorouracil was compared with other previously documented treatments of equine sarcoids.

ResultsSarcoids smaller than 13.5 cm3were significantly (P=0.032) more likely to resolve with treatment than larger sarcoids. Sarcoids that were not responsive to previous therapies were significantly (P = 0.007) more likely to recur after 3 years than sarcoids that had not been treated prior to this study. In this study, there were similar rates of resolution in cases with mutiple tumours (66.6%) when compared to cases with single tumours (60%). The numbers in this study were too small to properly evaluate the effect of tumour location on the success of treatment. Intratumoural 5‐fluorouracil appeared to have resolved sarcoids in 9 of 13 cases (61.5%) as determined by follow up conversation with the owners 3 years after the initial treatment.

ConclusionThe use of intratumoural 5‐fluorouracil compares favourably with other treatment modalities for sarcoids, with a long term successful resolution rate of 61.5%. Owners should be warned that resistant sarcoids and sarcoids larger than 13.5 cm have a poorer prognosis for resolution and more aggressive therapeutic options should be considered.
Feline diarrhoea associated withTritrichomonascf.foetusandGiardiaco‐infection in an Australian cattery
Authors: Bissett SA , Gowan RA , O’Brien CR , Stone MR , Gookin JL
Published: August 2010

A 10‐week‐old female Ocicat was presented at a primary care feline veterinary practice for failure to thrive and diarrhoea. Numerous trophozoites, atypical forGiardiasp., were detected on a direct faecal examination, in addition toGiardiacysts. Although the failure to thrive and diarrhoea resolved following treatment for giardiasis, further diagnostic tests performed on faecal specimens from the kitten and 15 other Ocicats from the same cattery, including culture of trophozoites in In Pouch™ medium, PCR testing and molecular sequencing of PCR amplicons, confirmed infection withTritrichomonascf.foetus.This is the first report in Australia of feline trichomoniasis, which appears to be an emerging infectious disease of cats. Pertinent information regarding the clinical features, diagnosis, therapy, and potential source of feline trichomoniasis within Australia are discussed.
Profiling training preparation in young Australian Thoroughbred racehorses
Authors: Cogger N , Perkins N , Hodgson DR , Reid SW , Evans DL
Published: August 2010

Objective  To describe the impact of age, sex, and musculoskeletal (MS) injury on three preparation‐level measures of performance: (i) the duration of preparation, (ii) time from the beginning of the preparation until the first start in a race or barrier trial, and (iii) time from the first start until the end of the preparation.

Methods  Daily training and injury data for 2‐ and 3‐year old Thoroughbred racehorses were collected fortnightly from 14 trainers in NSW, Australia. Training data were aggregated into units referred to as ‘preparations’. Univariate and multivariate analytical methods were used to examine the associations between the explanatory variables and each of the measures of performance.

Results  There were 1274 preparations recorded in 451 horses. Younger horses had a shorter interval from the first start in a race or barrier trial to the end of the preparation. MS injury was not conditionally associated with any of the outcomes.

Conclusion  MS injuries in young racehorses have limited impact on long‐term performance, although care must be taken in interpreting the results because they could be confounded by variables not considered in this analysis. This study also begins to unravel the complicated relationship between age and previous exposure to training, with results supporting the hypothesis that the intensity of training increases with increasing age.
ICT Statistics at the New Millennium—Developing Official Statistics—Measuring the Diffusion of ICT and its Impact
Authors: Jeskanen‐Sundström Heli
Published: August 2010

The paper gives a short and very rough overview of the ongoing work in the field of statistics relating to the development of information and communication technology (ICT) and its impacts on the economies and on the society as a whole. It introduces three slightly different approaches with different emphasis on describing the emergence and diffusion of ICT and the respective economic and social change. These are termed the indicators approach, the new economy approach and the intellectual capital approach. The paper also discusses the basic requirements for the establishment of a new statistical system, as well as the present obstacles and problems of this work. Finally, some remarks are presented regarding further statistical co‐operation in this field.
Development in Information and Communications Technology (ICT) Statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics
Authors: Power Tim
Published: August 2010

This paper outlines the ICT statistical developments that the ABS has undertaken over recent years. These developments have been on both the supply side (ICT industry) and the demand side (use of IT by sector). The content of ABS ICT surveys has changed significantly over the last few years and are expected to develop further in line with industry changes and emerging policy needs.

Recent developments in household collections have been the inclusion of IT use questions in the 2001 Census of Population and Housing and in various ABS social surveys such as Children's Participation in Culture and Leisure Activities. Annual business IT use surveys are now conducted and include topics such as Internet commerce and IT security. Biennial ICT industry surveys are conducted to provide data on ICT production, imports and exports, ICT industry employment, performance and structure information. An Internet activity survey is run every six months and provides regional Internet access details and infrastructure details on Internet service providers.

A major development for 2002–03 will be the compilation of an ICT satellite account. ABS intends to produce an ICT Information Development Plan to guide its future statistical development work in the ICT field.
The Language of the English Biometric School
Authors: Aldrich John
Published: August 2010

This paper considers the language devised by Karl Pearson and his associates for discussing distributions, populations and samples, the basic language for frequentist inference. The original language—some of which is still in use—is described and also the changes it underwent under the influence of R.A. Fisher and of Russian and American mathematicians. The period covered is roughly 1890–1950.
Covariate Measurement Error in Quadratic Regression
Authors: Kuha Jouni , Temple Jonathan
Published: August 2010

We consider quadratic regression models where the explanatory variable is measured with error. The effect of classical measurement error is to flatten the curvature of the estimated function. The effect on the observed turning point depends on the location of the true turning point relative to the population mean of the true predictor. Two methods for adjusting parameter estimates for the measurement error are compared. First, two versions of regression calibration estimation are considered. This approximates the model between the observed variables using the moments of the true explanatory variable given its surrogate measurement. For certain models an expanded regression calibration approximation is exact. The second approach uses moment‐based methods which require no assumptions about the distribution of the covariates measured with error. The estimates are compared in a simulation study, and used to examine the sensitivity to measurement error in models relating income inequality to the level of economic development. The simulations indicate that the expanded regression calibration estimator dominates the other estimators when its distributional assumptions are satisfied. When they fail, a small‐sample modification of the method‐of‐moments estimator performs best. Both estimators are sensitive to misspecification of the measurement error model.
Hierarchical Models in Environmental Science
Authors: Wikle Christopher K.
Published: August 2010

Environmental systems are complicated. They include very intricate spatio‐temporal processes, interacting on a wide variety of scales. There is increasingly vast amounts of data for such processes from geographical information systems, remote sensing platforms, monitoring networks, and computer models. In addition, often there is a great variety of scientific knowledge available for such systems, from partial differential equations based on first principles to panel surveys. It is argued that it is not generally adequate to consider such processes from a joint perspective. Instead, the processes often must be considered as a coherently linked system of conditional models. This paper provides a brief overview of hierarchical approaches applied to environmental processes. The key elements of such models can be considered in three general stages, the data stage, process stage, and parameter stage. In each stage, complicated dependence structure is mitigated by conditioning. For example, the data stage can incorporate measurement errors as well as multiple datasets with varying supports. The process and parameter stages can allow spatial and spatio‐temporal processes as well as the direct inclusion of scientific knowledge. The paper concludes with a discussion of some outstanding problems in hierarchical modelling of environmental systems, including the need for new collaboration approaches.
Sequential Data Assimilation Techniques in Oceanography
Authors: Bertino Laurent , Evensen Geir , Wackernagel Hans
Published: August 2010

We review recent developments of sequential data assimilation techniques used in oceanography to integrate spatio‐temporal observations into numerical models describing physical and ecological dynamics. Theoretical aspects from the simple case of linear dynamics to the general case of nonlinear dynamics are described from a geostatistical point‐of‐view. Current methods derived from the Kalman filter are presented from the least complex to the most general and perspectives for nonlinear estimation by sequential importance resampling filters are discussed. Furthermore an extension of the ensemble Kalman filter to transformed Gaussian variables is presented and illustrated using a simplified ecological model. The described methods are designed for predicting over geographical regions using a high spatial resolution under the practical constraint of keeping computing time sufficiently low to obtain the prediction before the fact. Therefore the paper focuses on widely used and computationally efficient methods.
Interpreting DNA Evidence: A Review
Authors: Foreman L.A. , Champod C. , Evett I.W. , Lambert J.A. , Pope S.
Published: August 2010

The paper provides a review of current issues relating to the use of DNA profiling in forensic science. A short historical section gives the main statistical milestones that occurred during a rapid development of DNA technology and operational uses. Greater detail is then provided for interpretation issues involving STR DNA profiles, including:

– methods that take account of population substructure in DNA calculations;

– parallel work carried out by the US National Research Council;

– the move away from multiple independence testing in favour of experiments that demonstrate the robustness of casework procedures;

– the questionable practice of source attribution ‘with reasonable scientific certainty’;

– the effect on the interpretation of profiles obtained under increasingly sensitive techniques, the LCN technique in particular;

– the use of DNA profiles as an intelligence tool;

– the interpretation of DNA mixtures.

Experience of presenting DNA evidence within UK courts is also discussed. The paper then summarises a generic interpretation framework based on the concept of likelihood ratio within a hierarchy of propositions. Finally the use of Bayesian networks to interpret DNA evidence is reviewed.
Copyright Damages and Statistics
Authors: Basmann Robert L. , Slottje Daniel J.
Published: August 2010

This paper discusses the statistical issues that arise in conducting an economic damages analysis in the context of a litigation matter involving copyrights. Calculating damages in copyright cases turns out to be a natural application for econometric modelling methods. Surprisingly, elementary statistical issues can be a source of significant debate between the experts in such matters. In this paper, we present a case study and illustrate how issues such as interpretation of p‐values and what “rejection of the null hypothesis” really “means” in such matters.
Statistical Issues Arising in Disparate Impact Cases and the Use of the Expectancy Curve in Assessing the Validity of Pre‐Employment Tests
Authors: Gastwirth Joseph L. , Miao Weiwen , Zheng Gang
Published: August 2010

Disparate impact cases concern the potential adverse effect seemingly neutral employment practices, such as passing a pre‐employment test or possessing a fixed level of education, have on minority applicants. Their purpose is to eliminate discrimination by subterfuge, i.e., imposing a requirement that eliminates many minority individuals who could do the job but who do not meet the requirement. When a significantly higher fraction of applicants from minority groups fail the requirement compared to majority applicants, the requirement needs to be shown to be job‐related. Statistical techniques used at the various stages of a disparate impact claim are described. Properties of the expectancy curve, which describes the utility of a pre‐employment test and helps in defining a band of scores defining “equivalently skilled” applicants are discussed.
Using the Lee–Carter Method to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data*
Authors: Li Nan , Lee Ronald , Tuljapurkar Shripad
Published: August 2010

The Lee–Carter method for modeling and forecasting mortality has been shown to work quite well given long time series of data. Here we consider how it can be used when there are few observations at uneven intervals. Assuming that the underlying model is correct and that the mortality index follows a random walk with drift, we find the method can be used with sparse data. The central forecast depends mainly on the first and last observation, and so can be generated with just two observations, preferably not too close in time. With three data points, uncertainty can also be estimated, although such estimates of uncertainty are themselves highly uncertain and improve with additional observations. We apply the methods to China and South Korea, which have 3 and 20 data points, respectively, at uneven intervals.
Toward a New Model for Probabilistic Household Forecasts
Authors: Leiwen Jiang , O'Neill Brian C.
Published: August 2010

Household projections are key components of analyses of several issues of social concern, including the welfare of the elderly, housing, and environmentally significant consumption patterns. Researchers or policy makers that use such projections need appropriate representations of uncertainty in order to inform their analyses. However, the weaknesses of the traditional approach of providing alternative variants to single “best guess” projection are magnified in household projections, which have many output variables of interest, and many input variables beyond fertility, mortality, and migration. We review current methods of household projections and the potential for using them to produce probabilistic projections, which would address many of these weaknesses. We then propose a new framework for a household projection method of intermediate complexity that we believe is a good candidate for providing a basis for further development of probabilistic household projections. An extension of the traditional headship rate approach, this method is based on modelling changes in headship rates decomposed by household size as a function of variables describing demographic events such as parity specific fertility, union formation and dissolution, and leaving home. It has moderate data requirements, manageable complexity, allows for direct specification of demographic events, and produces output that includes the most important household characteristics for many applications. An illustration of how such a model might be constructed, using data on the U.S. and China over the past several decades, demonstrates the viability of the approach.
Assumptions on Fertility in Stochastic Population Forecasts*
Authors: Alders Maarten , de Beer Joop
Published: August 2010

In recent years Statistics Netherlands has published several stochastic population forecasts. The degree of uncertainty of the future population is assessed on the basis of assumptions about the probability distribution of future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions on fertility are based on an analysis of historic forecasts of the total fertility rate (TFR), on time‐series models of observations of the TFR, and on expert knowledge. This latter argument‐based approach refers to the TFR distinguished by birth order. In the most recent Dutch forecast the 95% forecast interval of the total fertility rate in 2050 is assumed to range from 1.2 to 2.3 children per woman.
Probabilistic Population Projections for India with Explicit Consideration of the Education‐Fertility Link
Authors: Lutz Wolfgang , Scherbov Sergei
Published: August 2010

Among the different sources of uncertainty in population forecasting, uncertain changes in the structure of heterogeneous populations have received little attention so far, although they can have significant impacts. Here we focus on the effect of changes in the educational composition of the population on the overall fertility of the population in the presence of strong fertility differentials by education. With data from India we show that alternative paths of future female enrolment in education result in significantly different total fertility rates (TFR) for the country over the coming decades, even assuming identical fertility trends within each education group. These results from multi‐state population projections by education are then translated into a fully probabilistic population projection for India in which the results of alternative education scenarios are assumed to expand the uncertainty range of the future TFR in the total population.

This first attempt to endogenize structural change with respect to education—which is the greatest measurable source of fertility heterogeneity in Asia—has resulted from a larger exercise of the Asian MetaCentre for Population and Sustainable Development Analysis to collect empirical information, scientific arguments as well as informed opinions about likely future population trends in Asia from a large number of population experts in the region. In this process, future changes in the educational composition of the population have been identified as a key driver of future fertility.

The actual probabilistic population projections for India show that with high certainty, the Indian population will continue to grow to about 1.3 billion over the next quarter of a century. After that the uncertainty will get much wider, ranging from a continued strong increase to the beginning of a population decline in India.
Estimation of the Option Prime: Microsimulation of Backward Stochastic Differential Equations
Authors: Allende Héctor , Elías Carlos , Torres Soledad
Published: August 2010

A mathematical statistical model is needed to obtain an option prime and create a hedging strategy. With formulas derived from stochastic differential equations, the primes for US Dollar/Chilean Pesos currency options using a prime calculator are obtained. Furthermore, a backward simulation of the option prime trajectory is used with a numerical method created for backward stochastic differential equations. The use of statistics in finance is highly important in order to develop complex products.
An Appraisal and Bibliography of Tests for Multivariate Normality
Authors: Mecklin Christopher J. , Mundfrom Daniel J.
Published: August 2010

This paper is a review of many of the dozens of procedures currently available for testing a data set for goodness‐of‐fit to the multivariate normal distribution. A majority of the procedures can be placed into one of four basic categories. Most procedures are multivariate extensions or adaptations of procedures used for testing univariate normality. Results of several power studies are summarized, and an extensive bibliography of literature pertaining to testing for multivariate normality is provided.
Developing Official Stochastic Population Forecasts at the US Census Bureau
Authors: Long John F. , Hollmann Frederick W.
Published: August 2010

The U.S. Census Bureau is approaching a critical decision regarding a major facet of its methodology for forecasting the United States population. In the past, it has relied on alternative scenarios, low, medium, and high, to reflect varying interpretations of current trends in fertility, mortality, and international migration to forecast population. This approach has limitations that have been noted in the recent literature on population forecasting. Census Bureau researchers are embarking on an attempt to incorporate probabilistic reasoning to forecast prediction intervals around point forecasts to future dates. The current literature offers a choice of approaches to this problem. We are opting to employ formal time series modeling of parameters of fertility, mortality, and international migration, with stochastic renewal processes. The endeavor is complicated by the administrative necessity to produce a large amount of racial and Hispanic origin detail in the population, as well as the ubiquitous cross‐categories of age and sex. As official population forecasts must meet user demand, we are faced with the added challenge of presenting and supporting the resulting product in a way that is comprehensible to users, many of whom have little or no comprehension of the technical forecasting literature, and are accustomed to simple, deterministic answers. We may well find a need to modify our strategy, depending on the realities that may emerge from the limitations of data, the administrative requirements of the product, and the diverse needs of our user community.
Causality: a Statistical View
Authors: Cox D.R. , Wermuth Nanny
Published: August 2010

Statistical aspects of causality are reviewed in simple form and the impact of recent work discussed. Three distinct notions of causality are set out and implications for densities and for linear dependencies explained. The importance of appreciating the possibility of effect modifiers is stressed, be they intermediate variables, background variables or unobserved confounders. In many contexts the issue of unobserved confounders is salient. The difficulties of interpretation when there are joint effects are discussed and possible modifications of analysis explained. The dangers of uncritical conditioning and marginalization over intermediate response variables are set out and some of the problems of generalizing conclusions to populations and individuals explained. In general terms the importance of search for possibly causal variables is stressed but the need for caution is emphasized.
Parametric Inference for Diffusion Processes Observed at Discrete Points in Time: a Survey
Authors: Sørensen Helle
Published: August 2010

This paper is a survey of estimation techniques for stationary and ergodic diffusion processes observed at discrete points in time. The reader is introduced to the following techniques: (i) estimating functions with special emphasis on martingale estimating functions and so‐called simple estimating functions; (ii) analytical and numerical approximations of the likelihood function which can in principle be made arbitrarily accurate; (iii) Bayesian analysis and MCMC methods; and (iv) indirect inference and EMM which both introduce auxiliary (but wrong) models and correct for the implied bias by simulation.
A Coincident Index for the State of the Economy*
Authors: Nieto Fabio H.
Published: August 2010

In this paper, a methodology is developed for designing a coincident index for the so‐called state of the economy. Based on this index, statistical tests are deduced for checking structural changes in the economy and consistency of pre‐established economic goals for the short term with past and present observed information. The approach can also be considered as a new solution for the ex post (benchmarking, disaggregation) and ex ante (extrapolation) prediction problems.
Percentage Points of the MultivariatetDistribution
Authors: Nadarajah Saralees , Kotz Samuel
Published: August 2010

The known methods for computing percentage points of multivariatetdistributions are reviewed. We believe that this review will serve as an important reference and encourage further research activities in the area.
On Testing for the Nullity of Some Skewness Coefficients
Authors: Ngatchou‐Wandji Joseph
Published: August 2010

Three tests for the skewness of an unknown distribution are derived for iid data. They are based on suitable normalization of estimators of some usual skewness coefficients. Their asymptotic null distributions are derived. The tests are next shown to be consistent and their power under some sequences of local alternatives is investigated. Their finite sample properties are also studied through a simulation experiment, and compared to those of the √b2‐test.
Regression Analysis with a Stochastic Design Variable
Authors: Sazak Hakan S. , Tiku Moti L. , Islam M. Qamarul
Published: August 2010

In regression models, the design variable has primarily been treated as a nonstochastic variable. In numerous situations, however, the design variable is stochastic. The estimation and hypothesis testing problems in such situations are considered. Real life examples are given.
Estimating Urbanization Levels in Chinese Provinces in 1982—2000
Authors: Shen Jianfa
Published: August 2010

No consistent and reliable annual data series on the urbanization level for provincial regions of China is available. Making use of urban population data from the 1982 and 2000 population censuses, this paper estimates an annual data series of the urbanization level for provincial regions using an estimation approach developed on the basis of a conceptual model of dual‐track urbanization. Based on such estimated new urban data of provincial regions, the major trends of urbanization in Chinese provinces and the relationship between urbanization and economic development are analysed for the period 1982–2000.

On ne dispose pas de séries de données annuelles cohérentes et fiables sur le niveau d'urbanisation des régions de province chinoises. En utilisant les données de population urbaine des recensements de 1982 et 2000, cet article estime une série annuelle du niveau d'urbanisation des régions de province grâce à une approche développée sur la base d'un modèle conceptuel d'urbanisation différenciée. Sur la base de nouvelles données urbaines ainsi estimées pour les régions provinciales, on analyse les grandes tendances d'urbanisation dans les provinces chinoises et la relation entre l'urbanisation et le développement économique pour la période 1982–2000.
Measure for Measure: Exact F Tests and the Mixed Models Controversy
Authors: Lencina Viviana B. , Singer Julio M.
Published: August 2010

We consider exact F tests for the hypothesis of null random factor effect in the presence of interaction under the two factor mixed models involved in the mixed models controversy. We show that under the constrained parameter (CP) model, even in unbalanced data situations, MSB/MSE (in the usual ANOVA notation) follows an exact F distribution when the null hypothesis holds. We also obtain an exact F test for what is generally (and erroneously) assumed to be an equivalent hypothesis under the unconstrained parameter (UP) model. For unbalanced data, such a corresponding test statistic does not coincide with MSB/MSAB (the test statistic advocated for balanced data cases). We compute the power of the exact test under different imbalance patterns and show that although the loss of power increases with the degree of imbalance, it still remains reasonable from a practical point of view.
On the Utility of E‐Learning in Statistics
Authors: Härdle Wolfgang , Klinke Sigbert , Ziegenhagen Uwe
Published: August 2010

Students of introductory courses consider statistics as particularly difficult, as the understanding of the underlying concepts may require more time and energy than for other disciplines. For decades statisticians have tried to enhance understanding with the help of technical solutions such as animation, video or interactive tools. However, it is not clear if the added value generated by these e‐learning tools justifies the work invested. In this paper the experience with various e‐learning solutions in terms of utility and the impact on teaching is discussed.
Statistical Thinking in Computer‐Based Learning Environments
Authors: Schuyten Gilberte , Thas Olivier
Published: August 2010

The theme of technology is particularly important for statistics education because of the role of technology in changing views of statistical knowledge, pedagogy and learning. The interactive multimedia technology of today allows for the creation of powerful learning environments where the focus is on the process that produced the data and its associated variation and the statistical thinking required to solve the problem. However, despite this optimistic view, students' self‐regulation and intrinsic motivation seem to be key concepts for learning in complex interactive computer‐based learning environments. We conclude with observations of teachers and students working with applets. More of these evaluations should be published and/or made available to the statistical community so that both positive and negative teaching experiences can be shared.
Foundational Value of Statistics Education for Management Curriculum
Authors: Tamura Hirokuni
Published: August 2010

The purpose of this paper is to propose a unique and distinct value of statistics education for management. The 1986 inaugural conference on Making Statistics More Effective in Schools of Business (MSMESB) proposed valuable guidelines for reforming statistics education in schools of business. However, a survey conducted by McAlevey & Everett (2001) identified that their impact has been minimal, and argued that structural problems many business schools have are the potential cause. We argue these structural problems exist because the value of the body of statistical tools for management is ambiguous and has not been made explicit. The unique and distinct value of statistics for management can be identified as the body of tools necessary to meet the inherent needs of a manager charged with making predictive judgments facing data. The need arises because human information‐processing capacity is quite limited, as the findings of researchers in cognitive psychology testify. These findings also affirm that the basic statistical concepts needed for processing data cannot be learned from management experiences.

The model of a manager faced with data, while considering the evidence of inherent limitations of human information‐processing capacity, establishes the foundational value of statistics training in the management curriculum. Statistics education in business schools will be made more effective when management educators recognize such value of the discipline, lend their support and reward the ownership commitment for continuous improvement and innovations of the business statistics curriculum.
One Possible Frame for Thinking about Experiential Learning
Authors: Cobb George W.
Published: August 2010

I argue that teaching statistical thinking is harder than teaching mathematics, that experimental design is particularly well suited to teaching statistical thinking and that in teaching statistics, variation is good. We need a mix of archival data, simulations and activities, of varying degrees of complexity. Within this context, I applaud the important contributions to our profession represented byDariuset al. (2007), andNolan & Temple Lang (2007), the first for showing us how to make simulation‐based learning simultaneously more flexible and more realistic than ever before, and the second for showing us a path‐breaking technology that can make archival data the basis for active learning at an impressively high level of sophistication, embedding statistical thinking within real scientific and practical investigations.
Computer‐Aided Statistical Instruction—Multi‐Mediocre Techno‐Trash?
Authors: Schwarz Carl J.
Published: August 2010

The very soul of statistics are data, but few students actually collect data as part of their statistical journey. The impediments to real data collection exercises are very real—they are logistically difficult to set up, expensive, and may not work because of extraneous events outside the control of the instructor. Computer‐aided laboratories are a way to bring many of the benefits of actual data collection to students at a fraction of the cost and can be easily controlled by the instructor.

There are many computer‐aided modules available—indeed a search on Google gave over 1 million hits. Some modules are good but many are mediocre. What separates the gems from the trash?
Extraction, purification and identification of bacterial signal molecules based on N‐acyl homoserine lactones
Authors: Wang Jianhua , Quan Chunshan , Wang Xue , Zhao Pengchao , Fan Shengdi
Published: August 2010

Bacteria possess an extraordinary repertoire for intercellular communication and social behaviour. This repertoire for bacterial communication, termed as quorum sensing (QS), depends on specific diffusible signal molecules. There are many different kinds of signal molecules in the bacterial community. Among those signal molecules, N‐acyl homoserine lactones (HSLs, in other publications also referred to as AHLs, acy‐HSLs etc.) are often employed as QS signal molecules for many Gram‐negative bacteria. Due to the specific structure and tiny amount of those HSL signal molecules, the characterization of HSLs has been the subject of extensive investigations in the last decades and has become a paradigm for bacteria intercellular signalling. In this article, different methods, including extraction, purification and characterization of HSLs, are reviewed. The review provides an insight into identification and characterization of new HSLs and other signal molecules for bacterial intercellular communication.
Revenue Management Through Dynamic Cross Selling in Call Centers
Authors: Lerzan Örmeci E. , Zeynep Akşin O.
Published: August 2010

This paper models the cross‐selling problem of a call center as a dynamic service rate control problem. The question of when and to whom to cross sell is explored using this model. The analysis shows that, under the optimal policies, cross‐selling targets may be a function of the operational system state. Sufficient conditions are established for the existence of preferred calls, i.e., calls that will always generate a cross‐sell attempt. These provide guidelines in segment formation for marketing managers, and lead to a static heuristic policy. Numerical analysis establishes the value of different types of information, and different types of automation available for cross selling. Increased staffing for the same call volume is shown to have a positive and increasing return on revenue generation via cross selling, suggesting the need to staff for lower loads in call centers that aim to be revenue generators. The proposed heuristic leads to near optimal performance in a wide range of settings.
Beyond the Classroom: Maintaining and Improving Teachers' Language Proficiency
Authors: Fraga‐Cañadas Cynthia P.
Published: August 2010

Abstract:The National Council for Accreditation of Teacher Education and the ACTFL suggest that a high proficiency in the Spanish language is essential for all Spanish teachers. With the growth of the Spanish‐speaking population in the United States and the diversity of Hispanic culture, teacher education programs need to ensure that teacher candidates are better equipped to face the increased demands of language proficiency. This study investigated both native and nonnative high school Spanish teachers' language practices outside and inside the school setting such as their level of involvement in target language activities. Results from a survey (106 completed questionnaires, 60% return rate) reveal several important implications for teacher educators and Spanish teachers as well as recommendations for future research.
Using Images as Springboards to Teach Cultural Perspectives in Light of the Ideals of the MLA Report
Authors: Barnes‐Karol Gwendolyn , Broner Maggie A.
Published: August 2010

Abstract: The centrality of culture and language learning in foreign language instruction is highlighted in the Standards for Foreign Language Learning in the 21st Century (National Standards, 2006) and the MLA report, “Foreign Languages and Higher Education: New Structures for a Changed World” (MLA Ad Hoc Committee on Foreign Languages, 2007). Operationalizing the teaching of culture, however, is an ongoing challenge for instructors. Although classrooms are often replete with cultural “products” and descriptions of cultural “practices,” devising ways to effectively use them as springboards for analysis of cultural “perspectives” may be elusive. This article describes an approach to teaching cultural and linguistic competence through the analysis of images linked to other texts. At the same time, it helps students move toward slowly becoming more “translingual” and “transcultural.”
Structuring Narrative in 3D Digital Game‐Based Learning Environments to Support Second Language Acquisition
Authors: Neville David O.
Published: August 2010

Abstract: The essay is a conceptual analysis from an instructional design perspective exploring the feasibility of using three‐dimensional digital game‐based learning (3D‐DGBL) environments to assist in second language acquisition (SLA). It examines the shared characteristics of narrative within theories of situated cognition, context‐based approaches to SLA, and game studies as a means of developing meaningful, engaging, and instructional gameplay in 3D‐DGBL environments. The article concludes with a design rubric proposed for aligning gameplay in 3D‐DGBL environments with concise performance objectives in order to support assessable learning outcomes. A theoretical approach for designing 3D‐DGBL environments, the essay invites further discussion on the topic and calls for increased research and development in the area.
The Combined Effects of Immersion and Instruction on Second Language Pronunciation
Authors: Lord Gillian
Published: August 2010

Abstract: This preliminary study investigates the acquisition of second language phonology with respect to two variables: immersion in a target language community, and explicit instruction in the form of a phonetics/pronunciation class. Specifically, the research examines the second language acquisition (SLA) of specific properties of the Spanish phonology system as achieved by native speakers of English participating in a summer program in Mexico, some of whom had previously taken a Spanish phonetics course. Results suggest that it is not one factor or another in isolation that is most beneficial, but rather the combination of the two. The findings are analyzed not only in terms of how the SLA of sound systems develops, but also with respect to pedagogical, curricular, and administrative implications.
How Do I Satisfy the General Education Language Requirement? University Students' Attitudes Toward Language Study
Authors: Thomas Juan Antonio
Published: August 2010

Abstract: This study aims to identify the two principal reasons why college students choose a certain language to satisfy a general education second language requirement by polling 172 students enrolled in first‐year language courses in 13 languages at a large Northeastern research university. Students answered a questionnaire and chose the two main reasons from 10 choices articulated in sentimental, value, instrumental, and communicative dimensions. Cross‐tabulations by SPSS showed significant statistical relationships between the attitudinal factors and the language studied. Spanish students strongly favored an instrumental orientation for both first and second choices. Danish, Dutch, French, Arabic, Russian, and German students also indicated instrumental preferences, but their second choices fell into other domains. Portuguese, Italian, Hebrew, Japanese, and Korean students favored communication factors, while Chinese students selected sentimental and communication reasons for their first and second choices, respectively.
Refined class number formulas and Kolyvagin systems
Authors: Mazur Barry , Rubin Karl
Published: August 2010

We use the theory of Kolyvagin systems to prove (most of) a refined class number formula conjectured by Darmon. We show that, for every odd prime p, each side of Darmon’s conjectured formula (indexed by positive integers n) is ‘almost’ a p-adic Kolyvagin system as n varies. Using the fact that the space of Kolyvagin systems is free of rank one over ℤp, we show that Darmon’s formula for arbitrary n follows from the case n=1, which in turn follows from classical formulas.
Part-Elliptical Cracks Emanating From Open and Loaded Holes in Plates
Authors: Kullgren T. E. , Smith F. W.
Published: August 2010

A linear elastic analysis using the finite element-alternating method is conducted for problems of single semi-elliptical and double quarter-elliptical cracks near fastener holes. Mode-one stress intensity factors are presented along the crack periphery for cases of open and loaded holes and crack opening displacements are calculated. Results are shown for a variety of crack geometries and loading conditions and for two ratios of hole diameter to plate thickness.