bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Effects of Blended Learning in Comparison of Traditional Learning to Provide Safer Learning Environment- A Comparative Review
Authors: Hafeez Muhammad , Akhter Yasmeen
Published: March 2022

Learning strategies have shifted from conventional information to communication technology-based learning since the beginning of the twenty-first century. A study of published articles on blended and traditional learning strategies was done to emphasise the value and significance of both learning strategies and to investigate their efficacy in promoting a safer learning environment in different educational levels. Thirty-six (36) research articles from various disciplines published in Web of Science and Scopus databases were chosen for review. According to the review of researches, blended learning demonstrated to be a more successful learning approach than traditional learning strategy in the majority of studies. Twenty-five (25) studies found a statistically more significant benefit in blended learning strategy for academic success, critical and creative abilities, and a safer learning environment in diverse disciplines, out of 36 published articles evaluated. Based on the findings of this study, it is strongly suggested that blended learning strategies be used to attain high academic and professional goals while also providing a safer learning environment in educational institutions and society.
The "Antiracist" Mental Health Threat That No One Talks About
Authors: Ridgley Stanley K.
Published: March 2022

Despite an explosion of diversity, equity, and inclusion training in higher education, the “antiracist pedagogy” that conveys these ideas to undergraduates amounts to little more than a program of coercive thought reform that deploys psychological weapons against students.
The Word on "Wilding"
Authors: Kroessler Jeffrey A.
Published: March 2022

Like earlier reference works such as World Book and Collier’s, digital reference works are used by students and researchers seeking accurate and trustworthy information. Unfortunately, databases such as Gale EBooks reflect the bias and social justice activism of the academic journals, newspapers, and magazines they draw from.
Application of cosmic ray snow gauges to monitor the snow water equivalent on alpine glaciers 
Authors: Gugerli Rebecca , Desilets Darin , Salzmann Nadine
Published: March 2022

Temporally continuous measurements of the snow water equivalent (SWE) are a key variable in many hydrological, meteorological and glaciological studies and are of particular importance in high mountain regions. Obtaining temporally continuous, accurate and reliable SWE observations in these harsh environments, however, remains a challenge. Recently, promising results have been achieved by using a neutronic cosmic ray snow gauge (n-CRSG). The n-CRSG device is deployed below the seasonal snowpack and counts fast neutrons from the secondary cascades of cosmic rays, which are efficiently moderated and absorbed by the hydrogen atoms contained in the snowpack. Based on the exponential relationship between neutrons and hydrogen atoms, we can infer SWE from the neutron count rate. We have installed and evaluated a n-CRSG on the Swiss Glacier de la Plaine Morte. Our validation with 22 manual measurements over five winter seasons (2016/17-2020/21) showed an average underestimation of -2% ±10% (one standard deviation).
In the present study, we explore the use of muons instead of neutrons to infer SWE. To this end, we deployed two muonic cosmic ray snow gauges (µ-CRSG), one below and one above the seasonal snowpack, for the winter season 2020/21 on the same glacier site in Switzerland. The difference in count rates between the top and bottom device can be related to the SWE of the snowpack. We derive a first-cut conversion function based on manual SWE observations by means of snow pits and snow cores. To evaluate the measurements by the µ-CRSG, we also compare them to SWE estimates by the n-CRSG. Over the winter season 2020/21, almost up to 2000 mm w.e. were observed. Overall, the µ-CRSG agrees well with the n-CRSG on the evolution of the snowpack at a high temporal resolution and thus demonstrates its great potential. Also, the inferred SWE measurements lie within the uncertainty of manual observations. Furthermore, the µ-CRSG has several advantages over the n-CRSG; It is cheaper, lighter and promises a higher measurement precision due to the improved counting statistics of the muon count rates. We conclude that the µ-CRSG has even greater potential than the n-CRSG to monitor SWE in remote high mountain environments.
Palynological and sedimentological records since 8.5 ka BP on the southern Brittany platform (NW Europe): complex responses to sea-level, rapid climate and anthropogenic changes
Authors: David Ophélie , Penaud Aurélie , Vidal Muriel , Fersi Wiem , Lambert Clément , Goubert Evelyne , Herledan Maïwenn , Stéphan Pierre , Pailler Yvan , Bourillet Jean-François , Baltzer Agnes
Published: March 2022

New results acquired in the south-Brittany shelf (core MD08-3204 CQ: Bay of Quiberon and core VK03-58bis: south-Glénan) allow depicting Holocene paleoenvironmental changes from 8.5 ka BP to present through a multi-proxy dataset including sedimentological and palynological data.

First, grain-size analyses and AMS-14C dates depict a common sedimentary history for both study cores. After the post-glacial sea-level (RSL) rise and related high sedimentation rates, the parallel slowdown of the RSL rise and the drop of sedimentation rates occurred between 8.3 and 5.7 ka BP. This interval leads to the establishment of a shell-condensed level, identified in the VK03-58bis core by the “Turritella layer” and interpreted as a marker for the establishment of the maximum flooding surface. Palynological data (pollen grains and dinocyst assemblages) acquired in the core MD08-3204 CQ argue for an amplification of the fluvial influence since 5.9 ka BP; the establishment of the highstand system tract (i.e. estuarine-type sedimentation on the platform) then accompanying the slowdown of the RSL rise. On the shelf, the Anthropogenic Pollen Indicators (API) amplification, is detected since 4.2 ka BP, due to the fluvial influence becoming predominant in the context of the Late Holocene.

In addition, the comparison of fluvial palynological tracers, including API, over the last 7 kyrs, with coastal-marines sites subjected to northern vs. southern Loire catchment areas, allowed to discuss a major hydro-climatic effect on the reconstructed palynological signals. Strengthened subpolar gyre dynamics (SPG), combined with recurrent positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) configurations, are well-known to favour increased winter precipitation and fluvial discharge in northern Europe, such as Brittany, and conversely during weakened SPG the winter fluvial discharge is intensified over southern Europe. Interestingly, we record, at an infra-orbital timescale, major peaks of API during periods of strengthened (/weakened) SPG dynamics in sites whose catchment areas are located north (/south) of the Loire.
Hydraulic traits are coupled with plant anatomical traits under drought-rewatering cycles in Ginkgo biloba L.
Authors: Li Shan
Published: March 2022

Investigating the responses of plant anatomical traits of trees to drought-rewatering cycles helps us to understand their responses to climate change; however, such work has not been adequately reported. In this study, Ginkgo biloba L. saplings were subjected to moderate, severe, extreme and lethal drought conditions by withholding water according to PLCs (the percentage loss of hydraulic conductivity) and rewatering on a regular basis. Samples of phloem, cambium, and xylem were collected to quantify their cellular properties, including cambium and phloem cell vitality, xylem growth ring width, pit aspiration rates and pit membrane thickness, using light microscopy and transmission microscopy. The results showed that the mortality rate of G. biloba saplings reached 90% at approximately P88 (xylem water potential inducing 88% loss of hydraulic conductivity). The onset of cambium and phloem cell mortality might be in accordance with that of xylem embolism. Close negative correlations between xylem water potential and PLC and between xylem water potential and cambium and phloem mortality suggested that xylem hydraulic traits are coupled with anatomical traits under declining xylem water potential. Cambium and phloem cell vitality as well as xylem growth ring width decreased significantly with increasing drought conditions. However, xylem pit membrane thickness, cambial zone width and cambial cell geometry were not affected by the drought-rewatering cycles. The tracheid radial diameter, inter-tracheid cell wall thickness and tracheid density decreased significantly during both drought conditions and rewatering conditions. In addition to hydraulic traits, cambium and phloem cell vitality can be used as anatomical traits to evaluate the mortality of G. biloba under drought. Future work is proposed to observe the dynamics of pit aspiration rates under drought-rewatering cycles in situ to deepen our understanding of the essential role of bordered pits in the “air seeding” mechanism.

Key words: cambium and phloem cell vitality, xylem vulnerability curves, xylem growth ring width, pit membrane thickness, pit aspiration rate, tree mortality, lethal water potential under drought

https://academic.oup.com/treephys/advance-article-abstract/doi/10.1093/treephys/tpab174/6485193
Limit Cycle Model of Messinian Salinity Crisis Incorrect and Irreproducible
Authors: Baum Mark
Published: March 2022

During the Messinian Salinity Crisis (5.97-5.33 Ma), evaporite deposition throughout the Mediterranean basin records a
series of dramatic environmental changes as flow through the Strait of Gibraltar was restricted. In the first stage of
evaporite deposition, cycles of gypsum appear in shallow basins on the margins of the Mediterranean. The complex
environmental history giving rise to these cycles has been investigated for decades but remains somewhat mysterious.
Notably, whether the evaporites are connected to significant changes in Mediterranean sea level is an open question.
In one proposed model, competition between tectonic uplift and erosion at the Strait of Gibraltar gives rise to self-sustaining
sea-level oscillations, or limit cycles, which trigger evaporite deposition. I show that limit cycles
are not a robust result of the proposed model and discuss how any oscillations produced by this model depend on
an unrealistic formulation of a key model equation. A more realistic formulation would render sea-level limit cycles improbable,
if not impossible, in the proposed model.
Inter-regional economic impacts of an extreme storm flood scenario considering transportation interruption: A case study in Shanghai, China
Authors: Ding Wei , Wu Jidong
Published: March 2022

Global climate warming and socioeconomic development would significantly increase the frequency and economic losses of extreme flood events in the future. But the overall economic consequences of extreme floods, including direct damages and indirect economic impacts, are rarely explicitly and comprehensively assessed. Furthermore, transportation network not only is one of critical infrastructure assets which are vulnerable to floods but also plays a key role in transporting inputs and products for economic sectors. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the potential effects of 1,000-year extreme storm flood scenario and transportation interruption caused by it on national and local economy, taking Shanghai as study area. By incorporating transportation cost induced demand changes and supply constraints by transport delay of inputs or goods, impacts of transport disruptions are clearly modelled. Moreover, some adaptive behaviors, like import substitution, supplier substitution of inputs, inventories, overproduction capacity, changes of transport modes, earlier start to reconstruction and so on, are also considered in inter-regional input-output (IRIO) model, because of the resilience of economic system. Our main results show that the following: (i) China may suffer substantial indirect economic losses (IELs), more than 1.11 times direct damages, and IELs in Shanghai may account for 27.91%. (ii) More negative economic impacts by transport disruptions spread to other indirectly affected regions, especially neighboring provinces, propagating through supply chain. (iii) Total IELs are very sensitive  to transport delay time, and economic losses from the delay may increase nearly linearly after using up inventories during the disruptions of transportation. Those results highlight the importance of strengthening resilience of the transport system and fast repairs after disaster. Also, results of different hypothetical scenarios show benefits of adaptive strategies, thereby providing some insights into post-disaster economic recovery for related policymakers and stakeholders.
Exhumation of plutons controlled by boundary faults: Insights from the kinematics, microfabric and geochronology of the Taibai shear zone, Qinling Orogen, China
Authors: Cheng Chao , Sun Shengsi , Dong Yunpeng , Zhang Bin , Guo Zhao
Published: March 2022

The Taibai granitic plutons lie between the Taibai ductile shear zone to the north and the Shangdan suture to the south. The deformation mechanism of the ductile shearing is crucial to understanding the exhumation processes of the multiple plutons after the Late Mesozoic period. Geological investigations, microstructures, and kinematic vorticity calculations (RGN and Wallis method) indicate that the Taibai shear zone deformed in response to pure shear-dominated (54–65%) transpression and top-to-NW shear sense as a result of NE-SW oblique contractional tectonics. The quartz crystallographic preferred orientations of the prism  slip system, the grain boundary migration, and sub-grain rotation dynamic recrystallization of quartz—combined with the plagioclase–hornblende thermometer—constrain the main deformation temperatures to a range of 400–650 °C, which suggests amphibolite to greenschist facies conditions. In addition, it is extremely likely that the mylonites experienced late-stage, lower temperature deformation as demonstrated by the sporadic bulging recrystallization, the quartz basal  slip system, and the two-feldspar geothermometer calculation. The samples collected from the weakly deformed mylonitic granite pluton and the undeformed quartz-feldspathic dike that intruded into the mylonites yield zircon U–Pb ages of 129 ± 1 Ma and 115 ±1 Ma, respectively. This information, with the lower intercept ages of ca. 120 Ma obtained from the mylonite samples, suggests that the ductile shearing probably occurred from ca. 129 Ma to 115 Ma. Combined with the regional geological data, these findings suggest that the Taibai shear zone and the Shangdan suture accommodated the oblique upward extrusion of the Taibai plutons during the Early Cretaceous time.
Diapiric initiation and formation mechanism of diapir’s downbuilding—Insights from analogue modeling
Authors: He Wengang
Published: March 2022

The diapir structure is closely related to the distribution of oil and gas resources and has received extensive attention. In this regard, previous works have conducted much research on it. So far, many important achievements and understandings have been obtained on the formation environment and deformation styles of diapir structures, but there are few studies on the formation mechanism of salt or mud diapir initiation and its downbuilding. This study uses analog modeling to establish four sets of combined models of the basal silicon layer and overlying quartz sand, including the differences in initial geomorphology, the thickness of the covering layer above the ductile layer, sedimentary rate, and basal and lateral friction. Results show that the difference in geomorphology is the initial necessary condition for the formation of salt dome or mud dome structure, i.e., the extension, compression environment, and weak zone formed by tectonic activity are all conducive to the rapid start of the diapir structure. The formation of diapir downbuilding, rapid deposition loading, thick initial covering layer above the ductile layer, and significant basal and lateral friction will inhibit the development of early diapirs. In contrast, slow deposition rate, thin initial covering layer above the ductile layer, and reduced basal and lateral friction will promote the growth of early diapirs. Simultaneously, in the middle and late stages of diapir downbuilding, diapirs will grow and deform rapidly with the loading of the deposition rate. Based on the physical modeling results and natural deformation of the diapiric structure, comprehensive analysis shows that diapir downbuilding results from the combined effects of geomorphology, deposition rate, formation temperature and pressure, and diapir fluid depth. It is found that the salt diapir downbuilding in the North Sea Basin and mud diapir downbuilding in the Andaman back-arc basin are similar to the formation mechanism of analog modeling downbuilding in this paper.

 

Keywords: Diapir Structure; Downbuilding; Initial Geomorphology; Sedimentary Rate; Covering Thickness; Basal and Lateral Friction; Analogue Modeling
Land-atmospheric interactions over heterogeneous landscapes of the Third Pole Region
Authors: Ma Yaoming
Published: March 2022

The exchange of heat and water vapor between land surface and atmosphere over the Third Pole region (Tibetan Plateau and nearby surrounding region) plays an important role in Asian monsoon, westerlies and the northern hemisphere weather and climate systems. Supported by various agencies in the People’s Republic of China, a Third Pole Environment (TPE) Integrated Three-dimensional Observation and research Platform (TPEITORP) is now implementing over the Third Pole region. The background of the establishment of the TPEITORP, the establishing and monitoring plan of long-term scale (5-10 years) of it will be shown firstly. Then the preliminary observational analysis results, such as the characteristics of land surface energy fluxes partitioning and the turbulent characteristics will also been shown in this study. Then, the parameterization methodology based on satellite data and the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) observations has been proposed and tested for deriving regional distribution of net radiation flux, soil heat flux, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux and evapotranspiration (ET)and their variation trends over the heterogeneous landscape of the Tibetan Plateau (TP) area. To validate the proposed methodology, the ground measured net radiation flux, soil heat flux, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux and ET of the TPEORP are compared to the derived values. The results showed that the derived land surface heat fluxes over the study areas are in good accordance with the land surface status. These parameters show a wide range due to the strong contrast of surface feature. And the estimated land surface heat fluxes are in good agreement with ground measurements, and all the absolute percent difference in less than 10% in the validation sites. It is therefore conclude that the proposed methodology is successful for the retrieval of land surface heat fluxes and ET over heterogeneous landscape of the TP area. Further improvement of the methodology and its applying field over the whole Third Pole region and Pan-Third Pole region were also discussed.
Points of no return to respect the Paris Agreement
Authors: Bossy Thomas , Gasser Thomas , Ciais Philippe , Tanaka Katsumasa , Lecocq Franck
Published: March 2022

The physical reality of the Earth system implies that there are clear conditions to respect the Paris agreement, or to limit any climate impact below a certain level. To be policy relevant, these conditions should be expressed in terms of emission targets, such as peaking date, budget, or annual value of global CO2 emissions. They have been explored by the IPCC using integrated assessment models. However, past work has focused on bottom-up scenarios, and on temperature as the only metric evaluating climate impacts, even though not all impacts are linearly related to it.

Here, we show that for these emission targets, across thousands of scenarios we have generated, there are points of no return after which limiting a given climate impact becomes geophysically infeasible. In addition to the Paris Agreement objectives (consisting of a 1.5 °C temperature target above pre-industrial (PI) era possibly overshot by no more than 0.5°C), we investigate three other climate targets:  ocean acidification, sea-level elevation rate, and Arctic sea-ice melting. We use a newly developed model called PathFinder; a reduced-form carbon-climate model that also emulates the three global climate impacts we investigate. The model is calibrated through Bayesian inference, using outputs from the state-of-the-art CMIP6 models as prior parameters, and the latest IPCC assessment and observations of the Earth system as constraints. This advanced calibration is enabled by the model’s capacity of using temperature and atmospheric CO2 concentration as inputs (instead of anthropogenic emissions and non-CO2 radiative forcing).

Thanks to this backward approach, we demonstrate that, for every emission target considered, the combination of climate impact targets is non-linear. While the Paris Agreement insists on the importance of reaching a carbon neutral world in 2050, our results show that global CO2 emissions must peak before 2030 but do not have to reach net-zero to keep all targets reachable with at least 50% chances. We also highlight the inevitable role of geoengineering technologies in reaching the Paris Agreement, as chances to keep it reachable goes from at least 69% if SRM or CDR are available to 10% if none of them is.
Tropical Background and Wave Spectra: Contribution of Wave–Wave Interactions in a Moderately Nonlinear Turbulent Flow
Authors: Paldor Nathan , Garfinkel Chaim I. , Shamir Ofer
Published: March 2022

Variability in the tropical atmosphere is concentrated at wavenumber–frequency combinations where linear theory indicates wave modes can freely propagate, but with substantial power in between. This study demonstrates that such a power spectrum can arise from small-scale convection triggering large-scale waves via wave–wave interactions in a moderately turbulent fluid. Two key pieces of evidence are provided for this interpretation of tropical dynamics using a nonlinear rotating shallow-water model: a parameter sweep experiment in which the amplitude of an external forcing is gradually ramped up, and also an external forcing in which only symmetric or only antisymmetric modes are forced. These experiments do not support a commonly accepted mechanism involving the forcing projecting directly onto the wave modes with a strong response, yet still simulate a power spectrum resembling that observed, though the linear projection mechanism could still complement the mechanism proposed here in observations. Interpreting the observed tropical power spectrum using turbulence offers a simple explanation as to why power should be concentrated at the theoretical wave modes, and also provides a solid footing for the common assumption that the background spectrum is red, even as it clarifies why there is no expectation for a turbulent cascade with a specific, theoretically derived slope such as −5/3. However, it does explain why the cascade should be toward lower wavenumbers, that is an inverse energy cascade, similar to the midlatitudes even as compressible wave modes are important for tropical dynamics.
It also explains why  in satellite observations and reanalysis data, the symmetric component is stronger than the anti-symmetric component, as any bias in the small-scale forcing from isotropy, whether symmetric or antisymmetric, leads to symmetric bias in the large-scale spectrum regardless of the source of variability responsible for the onset of the asymmetry.

Shamir, O., C. Schwartz, C.I. Garfinkel, and N. Paldor, The power distribution between symmetric and anti-symmetric components of the tropical wavenumber-frequency spectrum, JAS, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0283.1 .
Garfinkel, C.I., O. Shamir, I. Fouxon, and N. Paldor, Tropical background and wave spectra: contribution of wave-wave interactions in a moderately nonlinear turbulent flow, JAS, https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-20-0284.1.
Shamir, O., C.I. Garfinkel, O. Adam, and N. Paldor, A note on the power distribution between symmetric and anti-symmetric components of the tropical Brightness Temperature spectrum in the wavenumber-frequency plane , JAS,doi: 10.1175/JAS-D-21-0099.1.
Differentiable Model for Muon Transport and Two-Phase Flow in Porous Media with applications to Subsurface Pollution Monitoring
Authors: Grinis Roland , Palmin Vladimir , Riazanov Danila , Kovalev Slava
Published: March 2022

Various industrial processes in geological formations, such as carbon dioxide capture sequestration, underground energy storage, enhanced oil recovery, hydraulic fracturing, well disposal, etc. could present safety and environmental risks including groundwater contamination. In the case of storage, any leaks would also be detrimental for the performance of the capture system. 

 

Non-aqueous phase liquids such as chlorinated hydrocarbons and oil, but also supercritical CO2 have low solubility in brine. Their migration, especially due to external forces, must be thoroughly monitored in order to avoid long-time pollution of freshwater aquifers in the subsurface. 

 

In our investigation, we will focus on geological carbon storage (GCS). Detecting breakthroughs in the carprock as early as possible is crucial to prevent further pollution of subsurface layers and assess storage exploitation. Still, we will keep the discussion general enough as the models we implement apply beyond GCS to all of the situations mentioned above. 

 

The use of atmospheric muons to monitor underground fluid saturation levels has been studied before. However, the low-contrast and possibly noisy muon flux measurements require accurate and realistic modeling of the main physical processes for the inverse problem behind monitoring. Moreover, first order sensitivity information for control parameters is needed to improve the analysis.

 

We address those issues in present work by incorporating a differentiable programming paradigm into the implementation of the detailed physics simulations in our set-up. The exposition is organised in the following manner. Firstly, we describe a model for the two-phase flow with capillary barrier effect in heterogeneous porous media for which we rely on the mixed-hybrid ﬁnite element method (MHFEM). Compared to previous studies, we develop a full 3D simulation and provide details for the implementation of adjoint sensitivity methods in the context of MHFEM. Secondly, we discuss muon transport building upon the Backward Monte-Carlo (BMC) scheme from V. Niess et al. (Comput. Phys. Comm. 2018). We re-use the spatial discretisation from MHFEM and perform sensitivity computations with respect to the media density and saturation levels following R. Grinis (arXiv:2108.10245 accepted to JETP 2021). Finally, we put everything together to design a system for detecting CO2 leakage through the caprock layer in GCS sites.
Radiocarbon and Stable Isotope Constraints on the Sources and Cycling of Organic Carbon in Mackenzie Delta Lakes
Authors: Lattaud Julie , Bröder Lisa , Haghipour Negar , Giosan Liviu , Eglinton Timothy
Published: March 2022

The Arctic is undergoing accelerated changes in response to ongoing alterations to the climate system (Arctic report card 2019), and there is a need for local to regional scale records of past climate variability in order to put these changes into historical context. The Mackenzie Delta region (Northwestern Territories, Canada) is populated by numerous small shallow lakes. They are classified as no-, low- and high-closure lakes, reflecting varying degrees of connection to the river main stem, and as a result, have different sedimentation characteristics. As for much of the Arctic region, the Mackenzie Delta is expected to undergo marked environmental perturbations such as earlier melting of river ice. As a consequence, the annual flood pulse (freshet) may decline, potentially resulting in the disconnection of some lakes from the river, leading to their subsequent desiccation (Lesack et al., 2014; Lesack & Marsh, 2010). In contrast, abrupt permafrost thaw and enhanced thermokarst-related processes might lead to additional lake formation and deepening of already formed lakes.

In this study, we used sediment cores originating from several lakes within the Mackenzie Delta, representing the three types of connectivity to the river (Lattaud et al., 2021). Radiocarbon and stable carbon isotopic signatures of two groups of compounds - fatty acids and isoprenoid and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) - are employed as tracers of carbon supply to, and cycling within the different lakes. Short-chain fatty acids as well as GDGTs serve as putative tracers of microbial production while long-chain fatty acids originate from higher terrestrial plants. The carbon isotopic signatures are used to distinguish between the relative importance of carbon inputs derived from in situ production, as well as from proximal (lake periphery) and distal (Mackenzie River) sources to the different lakes in the context of their degree of connectivity. Down-core molecular 14C measurements provide insights into the temporal evolution of the lakes, providing context for their response to past and future climate change.
Operational response to the Syrian oil pollution crisis in 2021
Authors: Zodiatis George , Coppini Giovanni , Peña Juan , Benjumeda Pablo , Sepp-Neves Antonio Augusto , Lardner Robin , Liubartseva Svitlana , Soloviev Dmitry , Scuro Matteo , Viola Fabio
Published: March 2022

In the frame of the MONGOOS-REMPEC agreement aiming to provide oil spill predictions in causes of major pollution incidents in the Mediterranean Sea, CMCC, ORION and Orbital EOS provided on a voluntary basis daily oil spill predictions based on satellite remote sensing data, following the large Syrian pollution crisis lasted from 23 August to 12 September 2021. As it was reported by REMPEC a total of 12,000 tons of crude oil was spilled in the NE Levantine Basin, at around 10:00 UTC on the 23 August from the fuel tanks of the Baniyas power station in Syria.The current pollution incident is of the same order of magnitude in terms of the amount of the oil spilled at sea from a similar source type, as the one caused during the Lebanon oil pollution crisis in July 2006.

The MEDESS4MS multi-oil spill modeling approach was applied, using the different resolution met-ocean forecasting data and two oil spill models. In the Syrian pollution crisis,met-ocean forecasting data from CMEMS Med MFC and ECMWF, CYCOFOS and SKIRON systems were used, as well as the well established MEDSLIK and MEDSLIK-II oil spill models. Moreover, the 27 satellite-derived SAR and optical images provided by the 7 surveillance satellites were processed in order to initiate the oil spill modeling predictions.

After the spillage, the oil was washed up on the Syrian coast at the higher concentration along the southern coast of Latakia. Part of the remained sea surface emulsified oil, which was identified as a thick oil (>0.1 mm) oil, was transferred offshore westward and it was widely spread in the NE Levantine between Syria and Cyprus, threatening the most eastern tip of Cyprus. The fast westward movement of the spill was due to the westward strong sea current generated along the southern and northern periphery of the anticyclone and cyclone eddies, respectively. Further on, the emulsified oil mostly was re-circulated by the anticyclone eddy, where part of the oil was re-landed at the Syrian coast and part of it was beached on the Turkish coast near Samandağ, under the increased southerly wind force. After the 6th September the emulsified thin sheen oil was progressively dispersed under the increase of the wind-wave action.

The operational response of the MONGOOS members during the Syrian oil pollution crisis that threatened also the neighboring countries in the NE Levantine, demonstrate a best real practice within the broader context of the operational oceanography developments in the Mediterranean, the usefulness of the down streaming applications to the local and regional response agencies to support their decisions during major oil pollution incidents.
Robust change in population exposure to heat stress risk with increasing global warming.
Authors: Freychet Nicolas , Hegerl Gabriele C. , Lord Natalie S. , Lo Eunice , Collins Matthew , Mitchell Dann
Published: March 2022

There is no uniform definition of heat waves and many climate indices can be derived from the surface temperature. When considering the impact of heat on human health, heat stress needs to be considered. Several indicators of heat stress have are commonly used, such as the Heat Index (HI), the Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) or the Wet-Bulb Temperature (Tw), all take into account the temperature and humidity. Each of these indices can be computed from non-linear empirical formula but they all use different scales which make results difficult to compare. Here we performed a comparative study using these 3 indices by defining corresponding levels of heat stress between the different metrics. We analyzed where sever, dangerous and deadly heat stress hazards will become more frequent, using climate model projections from CMIP6, and where the choice of the index makes a difference. For each index, we use a filtering techniques to remove models that cannot reproduce realistic extreme values during the current period (using a set of 4 different reanalyses as a reference). Following, we translated this risk in terms of country exposure and vulnerability, using population and GDP growth scenario.

We show that South and East Asia and Middle-East, as previously pointed out by many studies, are highly exposed to heat stress hazards. But more vulnerable countries with less resources for mitigation are also highlighted such as West Africa and Central and South America. For all these regions, about 20 to more than 50% of the population would be exposed to sever heat stress each year no matter the heat stress index chosen. European countries and USA will also be exposed several time per year to conditions of similar heat stress level than the 2003 heat wave. When going to more extreme hazards, especially when considering the “survivability threshold” of 35°C for Tw, different indices lead to more discrepancies in the results but similar regions can be identified as the most vulnerable.
Future hydrology of the cryospheric driven Lake Como catchment in Italy under climate change scenarios
Authors: Flavia Fuso , Francesca Casale , Federico Giudici , Daniele Bocchiola
Published: March 2022

In this paper we analyse the future hydrology of the Lake Como catchment under climate change scenarios. The management of the lake is extremely important because it is needed both to supply water for the irrigation demand of the Po Valley, and to prevent flood risk along the lake shores. The climate variations are affecting the lake operation with negative impacts both on agriculture and hydropower production. The lake dynamics are link to the cryospheric driven upstream basin, and so the use of a model able to assess the water input as related to snow cover processes is a key issue. Accordingly, we use the physically based hydrological model Poli-hydro able to represent the most important process in the cryospheric driven catchment. We set up and calibrated the model against lake inflows during 2002-2018, resulting in a mean error Bias = +2.15%, and a monthly/daily Nash-Sutcliff efficiency, NSE = 0.77/0.64. We then performed a stochastic disaggregation of 3 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) of the most recent Assessment report 6 (AR6) of the IPCC, under 4 different socio-economic pathways (SSPs), from which we derived daily series of rainfall and temperature to be used as inputs for the hydrological model Poli-Hydro. The climate projections show a potential increase of temperature at the end of the century between +0.61°C and +5.96°C, which would lead to a decrease of the total ice volume in the catchment of -50% and -77%, respectively. Future projections show generally an increase of discharge in autumn and winter (November-March) and a reduction in spring and summer (May-September). This is due to the increase of temperature with an increase of liquid precipitation instead of solid precipitation in winter and an anticipation of the snow melt peak at the beginning of spring. Possible consequences are the increase of flood hazard in the winter period and a scarcity of water availability in summer. A new regulation of Lake Como is essential to satisfy stakeholders requests.
Investigating C3/C4 plants competition using carbon isotopes and optimality principles
Authors: Lavergne Aliénor , Harrison Sandy P. , Prentice Iain Colin
Published: March 2022

Understanding the mechanisms underlying changes in carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) in C3 and C4 plants is critical for predicting the C3/C4 fraction in mixed ecosystems. Variations in Δ13C are closely related to changes in the stomatal limitation of photosynthesis (i.e. the ratio of leaf internal to ambient partial pressure of CO2, ci/ca), which are in turn determined by environmental variables, but also depend on the pathway of carbon assimilation. For instance, isotopic fractionation during the diffusion of CO2 through the stomata primarily influences Δ13C in C4 plants, while fractionation during Rubisco carboxylation has a stronger imprint on Δ13C in C3 plants. As a result, C3 plants are depleted in 13C compared to C4 plants. Isotopic measurements can thus be used as tracers of physiological processes in plants.

Here we implement Δ13C formulations for C3 and C4 plants in the optimal P model to investigate the abundance of C3 and C4 plants at different locations across the globe. We first test model predictions of Δ13C (and hence ci/ca) for the two carbon pathways against a large network of isotopic measurements from leaves. We then predict the expected mean Δ13C in soil organic materials after plants decomposition using maps of C3/C4 plants distribution and assess model predictions with real isotopic measurements. Based on our results, we propose a model to predict the competition of C3/C4 plants as a response to environmental variations in different ecosystems.
Fire and Ink: The Joy of Volcanic Storytelling
Authors: Andrews Robin
Published: March 2022

Every science journalist's journey into the field is unique, with no two origin stories the same. No two have precisely the same beat, writing style, or advice to hand out to those wondering how to take a shot at it themselves. Consequently, there is plenty to talk about to those curious about the field. But something I've noticed that is absent from most journalism lectures or talks is a sense of just how exhilarating it can be, particularly as someone who transitioned from academia into journalism with zero experience in the latter. Like every job, it has its pros and cons—but telling stories about worlds near and far, and the volcanic fires that fleck their surfaces, is as near to an ideal career as I can imagine. I hope that, with this talk, I can convince others to take that same leap I did, try something different, and experience that idiosyncratic thrill for themselves.
The turning point of the aerosol era
Authors: Bauer Susanne
Published: March 2022

Climate change is the result of individual forcing agents changing their radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere over time, and as a result, if positive radiative forcings dominate over negative forcings, the troposphere warms. Over the historical period, based on the CMIP6 simulations ranging from 1850 until 2014, aerosol effects via their ability to absorb or scatter solar radiation and alter clouds, have provided the largest negative forcings compared to all other forcings and played an important role in counterbalancing some of the greenhouse gas (GHG) caused global warming. Trends in aerosol have been very diverse globally, depending on source and geographical region. While many regions in the Northern Hemisphere have been seeing decreasing emissions since decades, changes in Asia have been more recent, with some countries, such as China have recently reversed their trends and now have decreasing emissions, while other regions, such as India or parts of South Asia, e.g., are still on an increasing trajectory.

Here we study aerosol forcing trends in the CMIP6 simulations of the GISS ModelE2.1 coupled ocean climate model using a fully coupled atmosphere composition configuration, including interactive gas-phase chemistry, and either an aerosol microphysical (MATRIX) or a mass-based (OMA) aerosol module. The historical (1850-2014) CMIP6 as well as four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) simulations (2015-2100) are analyzed, including the future scenarios, SSP1-2.5, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP 5-8.5.

The main conclusion of this study is that aerosol forcings have reached their turning point, switching from globally increasing to decreasing trends, in the first decade of the 21st century. The turning point in aerosol direct forcing does depend on the individual SSP and model used, however forcings caused by aerosol cloud interactions fall under all studied scenarios into the historical period. The fact that aerosol-cloud forcings dominate in magnitude over direct forcings, leads to the conclusion that the turning point of total aerosol forcings has already been reached. As a consequence, it could be possible that the recently observed global warming which is primarily driven by greenhouse gases has been augmented by the effect of a decreasing aerosol cooling effect on the global scale.

 

 
Assessment of ammonium-N/nitrate-N contamination in the shallow aquifer of a complex agricultural region, central-western Taiwan
Authors: Chen Shih-Kai , Lee Yuan-Yu , Liao Tzu-Ling
Published: March 2022

Choushui River alluvial fan is an important agricultural area with complicated agricultural cropping patterns in central-western Taiwan. Groundwater has long been regarded as an alternative water source because of the lack of sufficient surface water. Nitrogen loading from intense application of chemical fertilizer has been identified as a major source of non-point source pollution of shallow groundwater in this area. To evaluate the effectiveness of rational fertilization policy promoted by governmental agency on nitrogen pollution control since the beginning of the 21st century, the currently status (averaged from 2018 to 2020) and variation trend of ammonium-N and nitrate-N concentrations recorded from 38 monitoring wells were determined. High level of ammonium-N concentrations appeared not only in double-rice cropping area, but also in rotational cropping area, which dominate the nitrogen pollution in shallow groundwater currently. Mann-Kendall’s trend test revealed that upward trends only exhibited in 4 and 6 wells for ammonium-N and nitrate-N, respectively. In contrast, downward trends occurred in 15 and 25 wells for ammonium-N and nitrate-N. However, the further analysis combined with the Theil-Sen slope estimation and magnitude classification indicating that most of the downward trends should be classified into stable conditions due to the relatively small variation magnitudes. Nevertheless, the promotion of rational fertilization has achieved a preliminary goal for mitigating the nitrogen pollution in shallow aquifer. As the current situation of ammonium-N contamination in shallow groundwater of the study area is still severe, relevant agricultural non-point source pollution control measures should continue to be vigorously promoted for a long time.

Keywords: Groundwater, Ammonium-N, Nitrate-N, Mann-Kendall’s trend test
A machine learning method for seismic signal monitoring: A contribution to the detection of the potential volcanic hazard on Etna, Italy
Authors: Falsaperla Susanna , Langer Horst , Messina Alfio , Spampinato Salvatore
Published: March 2022

The dynamics driving an eruption play a crucial role in the impact volcanic activity has on the community at large. The interpretation of geophysical and geochemical changes heralding a volcanic unrest is a fundamental key to forecasting upcoming phenomena. However, the style and intensity of the eruption are difficult to predict, even in open-conduit volcanoes where eruptions can be relatively frequent. This is the case of Etna, in Italy, one of the most active basaltic volcanoes in the world. In 2021, fifty-two lava fountains arose from its Southeast Crater accompanied by lava emissions and ash fallout, which disrupted air and road traffic in numerous Sicilian municipalities. Lava fountains are just one of the typical eruptive styles of Etna. Strombolian activity and lava flows are also relatively frequent here, each with its own characteristics in terms of intensity and social impact.
We developed a machine learning (ML) method for the analysis of the seismic data continuously acquired by the local stations of the Etna permanent seismic network, exploiting the spectral characteristics of the signal. Its design started from: i) the need to detect the volcanic hazard, and ii) provide timely and indicative information on possible eruptive scenarios to the Civil Protection and the Authorities. Besides the identification of anomalies in the data, which flag enhanced volcano dynamics in its early stages, we investigate on clues concerning the potential intensity level of eruptive phenomena. The method works in near real time and can effectively contribute to the multidisciplinary analysis of volcanic hazard.
It takes a village to run a model
Authors: Melsen Lieke
Published: March 2022

Computer models are frequently used tools in hydrological research. Many decisions related to the model set-up and configuration have to be made before a model can be run, which might influence the results of the model. This study is an empirical investigation of the motivations for certain modeling decisions. Fourteen modelers from three different institutes were interviewed about their modeling decisions. In total, 83 different motivations were identified. Most motivations were related to the team of the modeler and the modelers themselves, `Experience from colleagues' was the most frequently mentioned motivation. Institutionalization and Internalization were observed: a modeler can introduce a concept that subsequently becomes the teams' standard, or a modeler can internalize the default team approach. These processes depend on the experience of the modeler. For model selection, two types of motivations were identified: experience (from colleagues or the modelers themselves), and model vision (the model has assets that align with the modeling vision). Model studies are mainly driven by context, such as time constraints, colleagues, and facilities at the institute, rather than epistemic (such as aligning with the modeling vision). The role of local context in the construction of and the value assigned to models shows that models are social constructs, making model results time and place dependent. To account for this context in the estimation of the robustness of model results, we need diversity of opinions, perspectives, and approaches. This requires transparent modeling procedures and an explicit modeling vision for each model study. 