Assessment of the Herd Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 among the Population of the Leningrad Region during the COVID-19 Epidemic
Authors: Popova A. Yu. , Ezhlova E. B. , Mel’nikova A. A. , Historik O. A. , Mosevich O. S. , Lyalina L. V. , Smirnov V. S. , Cherny M. A. , Balabysheva N. S. , Loginova I. S. , Vladimirova O. S. , Samoglyadova I. S. , Vasev N. A. , Rumyantseva S. V. , Chupalova E. Yu. , Selivanova G. V. , Muraviova M. V. , Timofeeva L. V. , Khankishieva E. N. , Tylchevskaya V. D. , Nikitenko N. D. , Kostenitskaya T. I. , Virkunen N. V. , Klimkina I. M. , Kuzmina T. M. , Degtyarenko N. V. , Bazunova A. I. , Filippova L. A. , Palchikova N. A. , Kukshkin A. V. , Arsentieva N. A. , Batsunov O. K. , Bogumilchik E. A. , Voskresenskaya E. A. , Drobyshevskaya V. G. , Zueva E. V. , Kokorina G. I. , Kurova N. N. , Lyubimova N. E. , Ferman R. S. , Khamdulaeva G. N. , Khamitova I. V. , Khorkova E. V. , Milichkina A. M. , Dedkov V. G. , Totolian A. A. 
Published: October 2020

The first case of COVID-19 was registered in the Leningrad Region on March 13, 2020. The period of increasing intensity of the epidemic process lasted 8 weeks. One month after reaching the maximum incidence rate, a study was organized to determine seroprevalence to COVID-19 among the population of the Region.

Objective of the study was to determine the level and structure of community immunity to SARS-CoV-2 virus in the population of the Leningrad Region in the period of intensive COVID-19 transmission.

Materials and methods. The work was carried out within the framework of the Rospotrebnadzor project on assessment of community immunity to the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the population of the Russian Federation. The content of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 was determined applying ELISA using a kit for the analysis of human serum or blood plasma for the presence of specific IgG to the nucleocapsid of the SARS-CoV-2 virus , manufactured by the State Scientific Center of Applied Microbiology and Biotechnology (Obolensk) in accordance with the instructions for use.

Results and discussion. The study has showed that the herd immunity of the population of the Leningrad Region was 20.7 %. The maximum level has been established in children 1–6 years old (42.3 %) and people over 70 years old (29.0 %). The highest level of seropositivity, except for children and older people, was found among the unemployed (25.1 %). The lowest level of seroprevalence was detected in civil servants (12.8 %) and military personnel (16.7 %). It has been shown that the risk of infection increases by 1.5 times in case of contacts with COVID-19 patients. After exposure to COVID-19 virus, antibodies are produced in 82.1 % of the cases. In individuals with a positive PCR test result obtained earlier, antibodies are detected in 82.8 % of cases. The share of asymptomatic forms among seropositive residents of the Leningrad Region was 86.9 %. The results of assessing the herd immunity to SARS-CoV-2 in the population of the Leningrad Region indicate that during the period of intensive COVID-19 transmission, an average level of seroprevalence was formed. A significant proportion of asymptomatic forms of infection characterizes the high intensity of the latently developing epidemic process. The results obtained should be taken into account when organizing preventive measures, including vaccination, and predicting morbidity rates.