bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
PRICE PREDICTIONS AND ECONOMICALLY AFFORESTABLE AREA
Authors: Price Colin , Dale Ian
Published: November 2008

The profitability of forestry depends on the future trend of timber prices. Three plausible price predictions placed the margin of profitability at three widely differing levels of physical productivity. A good estimate of the elevation at which marginal profitability could be expected under each price prediction was given by productivity/elevation regressions for existing plantations in each of three localities in North Wales. Cartographic sampling enabled the cumulative area of rough grazings below this elevation to be estimated. By combining empirical relationships between price trend, profitability, productivity, elevation and cumulative area, a heavy dependence of afforestable area on future price trend can be demonstrated for North Wales; similar results would be expected throughout Britain. Inclusion of land products other than timber complicates the exercise. The significance of price trend for many forestry decisions justifies much more research on price prediction.
RETIREMENT POLICY IN FRENCH AGRICULTURE
Authors: Naylor E. L.
Published: November 2008

A supplementary retirement grant (I. V.D.) has been the most important of a range of measures introduced since 1962 as a solution to social and structural problems in French agriculture. Although one‐third of the country's agricultural area has been transferred through the scheme, there has been no revolutionary change in farm sizes. The restructuring required by the policy has been relatively slight and the economic attractions of the retirement grant have declined, particularly since the early 1970's. Problems have also arisen from the uneven spatial adoption of the pension, from internal contradictions within the scheme and from the lack of co‐ordination with other aspects of government support for agriculture and regional development policy.
FARM MANAGEMENT ADVICE TO PEASANT AGRICULTURE: THE TRANSFER OF TECHNOLOGY
Authors: Harding T. J.
Published: November 2008

This paper considers the role of farm management in ensuring compatibility of extension content with the motives and constraints of individual peasant farmers. It emphasises the need for a modicum of farm management expertise in the communication of innovation from extension agent to farmer but questions the suitability of advanced farm management techniques for this purpose. It is argued that, if the potential contribution of farm management is to be realised, there is a need for an intermediate and appropriate farm management technology.
SPECTRAL ANALYSIS OF THE THEORY OF ANTICIPATORY PRICES
Authors: Chambers Robert G. , Woolverton Michael W.
Published: November 2008

The paper investigates the intertemporal relationship between cash and futures price changes using the techniques of spectral analysis. Daily data for the wheat, corn and soybean markets are analysed to determine if and how cash and futures prices move together. On a daily basis wheat and corn cash and futures prices move together; soybeans cash and futures prices do not move together on a daily basis.
MODELLING FERTILISER DEMAND IN THE REPUBLIC OF IRELAND: A COST FUNCTION APPROACH
Authors: Boyle G.
Published: November 2008

A translog cost function was used to obtain estimates of the own‐ and cross‐price demand elasticities for nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium. The results indicated a mean value for the own‐elasticities of —1.0, —0.6, —0.5 for N, P and K respectively. A test of the hypothesis of nutrient substitution was attempted. The test indicated that P and K were substitutable for N but not for each other. This result was corroborated by a zero elasticity of substitution estimate between phosphorous and potassium. A corollary of the results was the rejection on empirical grounds of the Cobb‐Douglas specification for the input demand functions. The latter function has traditionally been used in analyses of this nature.
SOME FEATURES OF FARM INCOME AND STRUCTURE VARIATIONS IN REGIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM
Authors: Furness G. W.
Published: November 2008

Farm income trends and developments in farm structure have varied within the UK in the last decade. While Wales and Northern Ireland have similarities in form structure, agricultural production has risen to a much smaller extent, and farmers have suffered more severe net income reductions, in Scotland and Northern Ireland than in England and Wales. The net incomes of Cropping farms rose faster and, in England, have remained much higher than those of Dairy or Livestock farms. Large numbers of small farm businesses depend on beef cattle and sheep production and have limited development prospects. As most of their occupiers are unlikely to find other employment, structural problems will persist and policy adjustments are suggested to enable agriculture to contribute more to the economy in remote and depressed localities.
CONCEPTS AND MEASUREMENT OF THE INCOMES, WEALTH AND ECONOMIC WELL‐BEING OF FARMERS
Authors: Hill Berkeley
Published: November 2008

Concern over the incomes of farmers has been a fundamental but ill‐defined component in the agricultural policies of the UK and many other industrialised countries. Attention is drawn to the inability of the UK's annual White Paper aggregate income figure to reveal much of the income position of farm families. Current income from farming is only a partial measure of the potential spending power of farmers: many have off‐farm sources of income which must be taken into account when, for example, assessing poverty and these sources appear to be growing in relative importance. In the longer term, capital gains form part of the returns to landowning farmers but are usually ignored. The frequently‐found combination of low current incomes and great wealth has prompted the use of a measure of economic status which combines the two. A prime requirement appears to be a more precise statement of the aims of income policy and the use of income measures most appropriate to the circumstances.
IS THERE A FRENCH SCHOOL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS?
Authors: Petit Michel
Published: November 2008

The particular history of French agriculture and the general intellectual environment in France have given the agricultural economics profession in that country a specific character which, in spite of many internal controversies, is illustrated by common beliefs about agriculture and common attitudes regarding research approaches contrasting with that of the profession in many other countries, including Britain.

After the second world war, the development of agricultural economics was marked by the demise of ‘ruralism’, an ideology of agrarian fundamentalism, and its replacement by ‘productivism’, an ideology emphasizing economic growth and based on a simplified neo‐classical paradigm. The surge of Marxism and dissatisfaction with the results of the policies advocated by the productivists led to a questioning of that paradigm. As a result, major hypotheses, theoretical issues, and concepts too often taken for granted in France and elsewhere should be re‐examined.
THE EFFECT OF PRICE SUPPORT POLICIES ON AGRICULTURAL INVESTMENT, EMPLOYMENT, FARM INCOMES AND LAND VALUES IN THE U.K.
Authors: Traill Bruce
Published: November 2008

Agricultural price policy has a major impact on the input markets as well as the output markets and a model is developed to analyse the effects of changes in support levels on U.K. agricultural employment, earnings, investment and land prices. This paper describes the specification, estimation and evaluation of the model and simulates the effects of a one per cent increase in support prices. The main conclusions are that net investment would increase in the years following the rise by a maximum in the second year of £12m and by a cumulative total of £44m (representing an increase of about 0.4 per cent in the capital stock). Employment on the other hand, while rising at first, would subsequently fall to almost one per cent below its original level, and earnings of hired labour also fall slightly. Net farm income increases by around 10 per cent and this is capitalised into a similar increase in land values.
THE OUTPUT RESPONSE OF THE RISK AVERSE FIRM: SOME COMPARATIVE STATICS FOR AGRICULTURAL POLICY
Authors: MacLaren Donald
Published: November 2008

The policy conclusions which stem from the deterministic theory of the competitive firm are well known and unambiguous. However, once product price is regarded as stochastic, there exist several theories upon which to base an analysis of the impact of agricultural policy on the output response of the firm. The paper considers four models from the safety‐first and expected utility frameworks. These models produce a diverse set of comparative statics results which in many instances conflict with those of the deterministic model. Hence, the paper concludes that it is important in agricultural policy analysis that greater consideration by given to the links between risk aversion, policy‐induced uncertainty and output response than is conventionally the case.
A TRADE AND WELFARE ANALYSIS OF UK SHEEPMEAT EXPORTS WITHIN THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITY
Authors: Crabtree J. R.
Published: November 2008

A spatial equilibrium model with transfer and foreign exchange sectors is used to investigate certain aspects of the EEC sheepmeat regime. In particular, the effects on intra‐Community trade and social welfare of the variable levy on UK exports and a green/spot rate differential for sterling are identified. Alternative policy measures aimed at increasing trade are examined and the conclusions are then applied to the regime as it operates in practice.
FRONTIER PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS AND THE MEASUREMENT OF TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY
Authors: Russell N. P. , Young T.
Published: November 2008

A measure of relative producer performance is often useful for policy purposes and the concept of economic efficiency provides a theoretical basis for such a measure. Yet several authors argue that the concept of efficiency and conventional efficiency measures are meaningless for the evaluation of real‐world performance. This paper examines some of the issues and argues that producers' performance may be measured using the concept of technical efficiency. Alternative technical efficiency measures are examined including those of Timmer (1971) and Kopp (1981). A frontier production function is estimated for a cross‐section of North West farms and these two measures are computed under various assumptions on the fixity of agricultural inputs.
THE FUTURE OF EEC DAIRY EXPORTS TO THE LESS‐DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS OF LONG‐RANGE PROJECTIONS AND MODEL STUDIES
Authors: van Dijk Gert , de Hoogh Jerrie , Vel Jacqueline
Published: November 2008

From recent projection studies it can be concluded that future dairy exports by the EEC to the Less Developed Countries (LDCs) will increase. The self‐sufficiency ratio for dairy products in the EEC will increase because of strong, technologically induced, growth of production potential. On the one hand, surplus production in the EEC will be difficult to curtail as the unfavourable conditions of the general economy will impede outmigration of inputs. Import demand, on the other hand, is projected to increase as many populations will be moving into stages of higher growth of income. Thus, input restrictions of agriculture in industrialised countries may be unnecessary. In this paper some agricultural economic aspects of the implied trade relationships are discussed. It is concluded that LDCs are not likely to benefit from gains of trade as predicted by theory of free trade and international specialisation. From projections by model studies, however, no consensus emerged. Projection and model studies seem hardly suited to provide insight in the effects of international trade under conditions of imperfect competition.
REFLECTIONS ON MANAGEMENT AGREEMENTS FOR CONSERVATION OF EXMOOR MOORLAND
Authors: Curtis Leonard
Published: November 2008

The impact of grant aid schemes and modern farm technology is considered in relation to the Study of Exmoor carried out by Lord Porchester. The development in the last three years of an administrative system based on voluntary notification using a moorland map, policies for protection of areas of special landscape value and financial guidelines for compensation is described. The conservation objectives behind management agreements are discussed and present practices with examples are illustrated. Future hazards facing successful use of management agreements are discussed with special reference to problems of funding, misuse of the system and the philosophy of progressive farming.
LABOUR ON THE FAMILY FARM: A THEORY AND SOME POLICY IMPLICATIONS
Authors: Dawson P. J.
Published: November 2008

This paper seeks to examine the labour‐input decisions on family farms at a theoretical level and to demonstrate some policy implications of this theory. Where the family has the opportunity to work on the land, utility maximisation, rather than profit maximisation, would seem to be a more appropriate criterion for decision‐making. Accordingly, the decision‐making process is analysed under this alternative assumption. We then consider some of the policy implications of this model. In particular, we consider the effects of policies on the labour‐inputs since the optimal allocation of labour is at the heart of most agricultural policies.
THE SHIFT OF COST CURVES AND AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH BENEFITS
Authors: Wise W. S.
Published: November 2008

In the estimation of agricultural research benefits, so far the only procedure taking into account the conditions under which new technology is introduced has been the semi‐empirical Lindner‐Jarrett construction. The present paper describes quantitatively the effect of various factors on the benefit estimate: original cost curve, technical parameters (yield increase and implementation cost), willingness to adopt new technology, and the market mechanism. Numerical results are given from which it is concluded that empirical constructions are unsatisfactory and that some overestimation of research benefits in previous analyses may well have occurred.
THE EFFECTS OF OIL AND MIGRATION ON BANANAS, COCOA, COFFEE AND COTTON EXPORTS IN LATIN AMERICA
Authors: Hojman David E.
Published: November 2008

Supply functions are estimated for the principal agricultural exports of Ecuador, Mexico and Venezuela. The domestic price effect is divided into a world price and an exchange‐rate (Dutch‐disease) effect. The exchange‐rate affects both income and foreign exchange payable cost items. Labour costs are introduced through the Todaro migration model. Regression results improve on previous work and suggest that oil‐export‐induced national currency revaluations provoked very substantial reductions in agricultural exports during the 1960s and 1970s. Both world prices and rural‐urban migration seem to have effects comparatively very small, where these effects are present at all.
HERD INVENTORY AND SLAUGHTER SUPPLY RESPONSE OF BOTSWANA BEEF CATTLE PRODUCERS
Authors: Ndzinge Loftus O. , Marsh John M. , Greer R. Clyde
Published: November 2008

A statistical model composed of rational distributed lags was used to estimate cattle inventory and cattle slaughter in the livestock sector of the Republic of Botswana. The impact of range and biological conditions, government infrastructure, technology, and cattle prices were tested in the initial maintained hypotheses. Results revealed that a polynomial rational lag structure, or cyclical effect, characterised the behaviour of herd inventories specific to changes in cattle prices. Contemporaneous decisions to market slaughter cattle were affected by the long‐term cycle as well as the more direct influence of slaughter prices and range conditions within a one to two year period. The responsiveness of these sectors to changes in cattle prices is qualified within the biological and climatic constraints, and customs of the tribal and commercial cattle producing economies. It appears that the significance of the price‐elasticities stands in contrast to the findings of other studies.
TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND SURPLUS LABOUR IN EGYPTIAN AGRICULTURE, 1952–1972
Authors: Aly Hassan Youssef , Grabowski Richard
Published: November 2008

This paper has two main purposes. First to determine if technical innovation has occurred in Egyptian agriculture and whether or not it has been labour‐using in nature. Secondly, to determine whether or not the marginal product of labour in Egyptian agriculture has been negative (surplus labour). The time period covered by the study is 1952 to 1972.

The above objectives were met by estimating a weak disposability of inputs (WDI) production function. The characteristics of the weak disposability of inputs function were discussed in great detail, since much of the profession is unfamiliar with this functional form. The function was then estimated and the results seemed to indicate that this functional form was appropriate for Egyptian agriculture.

The results of the estimation process indicated that labour‐using technical innovation had indeed occurred, although at a very slow rate. In addition, for most of the time period covered the marginal product of labour was indeed negative.
FOOD RETAILING AND AGRICULTURAL ADJUSTMENT
Authors: Sturgess I. M.
Published: November 2008

The paper considers the effects of the development of supermarket chains on agriculture in the United Kingdom over the past twenty years. For analysis the effects are divided between those of the introduction of the self‐service one‐stop outlet and the increased concentration of control of grocery retailing. Consequences are discussed under the main heads of marketing costs, final consumer demand and bargaining power. Particular attention is given to the influences of greater advertising by retailers and the distribution of fruit and vegetables through supermarkets.
MECHANISATION OF SMALL RICE FARMS IN THE PHILIPPINES: SOME INCOME DISTRIBUTION ASPECTS
Authors: Lingard John
Published: November 2008

Considerable controversy exists about the desirability of farm mechanisation in the Philippines. Survey evidence shows that the introduction of tractors has not directly resulted in yield and cropping intensity increases yet the employment displacement potential is great. Income shares are presented for different classifications of mechanised and irrigated farms and the effects of new technology on the welfare of landless labour households are discussed.
THE RURAL POOR AND TECHNOLOGICAL OPPORTUNITY IN THE DRY ZONES OF SOUTHERN ASIA
Authors: Thornton D. S.
Published: November 2008

In contributing to the appraisal and evalution of technological innovation, agricultural economists have a major but changing role to play. Whereas hitherto the concern has been chiefly to compare sharply different exogenous and indigenous technologies, the challenge now is to assess technological change of either or both these kinds

in ecologically sensitive and relatively unproductive areas

when the bulk of the people are poor and survival is the most common preoccupation

where innovations could impinge at many points in household life‐systems but are, singly, likely to have only small impact

where the institutional structure will be crucial to their acceptance and might itself have to change.
INDUCED INNOVATION IN UNITED STATES FIELD CROPS, 1939‐78
Authors: Thirtle Colin G.
Published: November 2008

During the past four decades, United States field crop production has been transformed by the mechanical and fertiliser revolutions. In this study crop‐specific estimates of the technical progress parameters that represent these changes are used to test the microeconomic theory of induced innovation. Tests based on the land/labour ratio, derived from a reformulation of the Hayami and Ruttan model, entirely support the inducement hypothesis and suggest that the partial failure of previous empirical investigations resulted from specification problems.
HOUSEHOLD FOOD CONSUMPTION: THE INFLUENCE OF HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS
Authors: Lund P. J. , Derry B. J.
Published: November 2008

This paper reports an attempt to identify the effects of various household characteristives on household food consumption. The analysis was based on National Food Survey (NFS) data for Great Britain for the calendar year 1982. Consumption (per person per week) of various food items was related to each of the main household characteristics on which information is collected in the course of the Survey‐location (both country/region and type of area), income (generally of the head of the household), household composition, age of housewife, housing tenure and freezer ownership. The results indicated that all these variables are important in the explanation of households' food consumption patterns.
ACCOUNTING FOR INCREASING LAND‐LABOUR RATIOS IN DEVELOPED COUNTRY AGRICULTURE
Authors: Thirtle Colin G.
Published: November 2008

This paper investigates the causes of past increases in land‐labour ratios and farm size by attempting to determine the contributions of factor substitution and technical change. The role of technical change in agricultural development has attracted considerable attention in development circles for some years. More recently, technical change versus factor substitution has become an issue in the US agricultural economics literature. The conventional approach followed in this study leads to the conclusion that in US wheat production the considerable increase in land‐labour ratios is attributable to biased technical change rather than factor substitution.
FARM TENURE AND FARMING PRACTICE
Authors: Hill Berkeley , Gasson Ruth
Published: November 2008

The performance of wholly owned, wholly rented and mixed tenure farms in the Farm Management Survey sample for England and Wales is compared on a range of criteria, controlling farm size and type. Mixed tenure farms are found to perform noticeably better than ‘pure’ tenure types.

Possible explanations for inter‐tenure differences in performance are reviewed under the headings of capital provision, farmer motivation and resource mobility. Evidence from the FMS and from interviews with 48 farmers provide only weak support for hypotheses relating performance to capital endowments, the ‘spur’ of market rents or asset appreciation. Findings on changes in farm size and tenure, however, suggest that tenure could be determined by, rather than being a determinant of, farm performance.
SUPPLY CONTROL WITH LIMITED INFORMATION: AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF TOBACCO PRODUCTION IN GREECE
Authors: Zanias George P. , Jones George T.
Published: November 2008

In the absence of explicit data that would facilitate a direct measure of the variable degree of control over exportable tobacco in Greece, a statistical measure was devised for it corresponding to the probability that control did adversely affect production in a particular year. This was measured by simulating the supply equations from the free market period over the control period and relating the discrepancies to the standard errors of the simulated values. The period 1948–1980 was re‐analysed using this control variable jointly with lagged prices as supplementary ‘independent’ variables. The best estimate of the long‐run price elasticity is considered to be near 3 but falls below 2 with a normal degree of control. The normal long‐run effect of control on production was near 30%. Other effects of considerable importance were the level of the rural population, weather and trend. The analysis required the use of several sophisticated econometric techniques including Schmidt's formula for the error of a cumulative projection.
SUPPLY RESPONSE OF UPLAND RICE IN OGUN STATE OF NIGERIA: A PRODUCER PANEL APPROACH
Authors: Ngambeki D. S. , Idachaba F. S.
Published: November 2008

Several reasons have been proposed to explain the unexpectedly low supply elasticities often found for food crops. This study is unusual in using a farmers' panel approach. This enables a distinction to be made between four different measures of response: realised output, planted hectarage, planned hectarage and ‘hypothetical’ hectarage. The results indicate that the own‐price elasticities of supply are significantly positive. Planned, planted and realised responses are quite close, but are less than the hypothetical responses. The hypothetical elasticities are smaller for price falls than for price increases and they become lower as the harvesting period passes, suggesting contraction of supply of a crop when its price falls and asymmetric response among small‐scale farmers.
OPTIONS FOR REDUCING INPUTS TO AGRICULTURE: A NON‐ECONOMIST'S VIEW
Authors: Raymond W. F.
Published: November 2008

By adopting new (higher output) technology farmers have largely compensated for the steady fall in ‘real’ EEC farm prices: as a result food production is in surplus. Because immediate price cuts adequate to curb production are unlikely, further restriction on farm output (e.g., milk quotas) appears unavoidable. Farmers must then aim to reduce their input costs so as to produce their ‘quota’ as cheaply as possible. The paper examines options for reducing inputs, and concludes that more research on lower‐input production systems is urgently needed, and that the economic discipline must be closely integrated with this research. It notes that a shift towards ‘less intensive’ farming would be in line with public concern on the environment, food quality and animal welfare.
GUARANTEE THRESHOLDS AND THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY
Authors: Avery Graham
Published: November 2008

In recent years an important development in the Common Agricultural Policy of the European Community has been the acceptance of the principle that the price guarantees can no longer be unlimited in nature, and that, if production exceeds a certain level, action should be taken to ensure that producers share in the responsibility for additional production. In 1981 the term ‘guarantee threshold’ was introduced to denote this level of production. Different mechanisms have been introduced in the various market regulations to give effect to the guarantee thresholds, and it is necessary for policy makers to realise that these mechanisms have different economic consequences. The case of milk is particularly instructive, for here the European Community in 1984 made a radical change by switching from the mechanism of reducing price support, if the guarantee threshold is exceeded, to a system of quotas for milk deliveries. Guarantee thresholds also exist for other products (cereals, processed fruit and vegetables, oilseeds) and in other cases there are analogous measures (sugar, wine, fruit in syrup, cotton). In the future development of the CAP, guarantee thresholds will continue to play an important role. How far can the Community expect to succeed in controlling its agricultural production by price or quantitative action, and what accompanying measures will be necessary?
REDUCING THE NITROGEN INPUT ON ARABLE FARMS
Authors: England R. A.
Published: November 2008

Nitrogen response curves derived from experimental data are used with a profit maximising condition to obtain optimum N rates, yields and gross margin losses for a range of nitrogen and cereal prices. These results are used with a linear programming model of an arable farm to estimate changes in the optimal cropping allocation and hence the farm scale effects of relative price changes. Total nitrogen applied is found to have a limited response: a doubling of the N price reduces the total used by between 24% and 10% depending on the availability of low‐N break‐crops. Cereal price changes reduce profitability severely before having any significant effect on N use.
THE CALCULATION OF RATES OF RETURN ON AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH FROM PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS
Authors: Wise W. S.
Published: November 2008

A general framework is described whereby, using production functions, the rate of return on additional agricultural R & D can be calculated. This enables existing procedures to be critically reviewed. Illustrative results are given which indicate that the rates of return found in previous studies tend to be overestimates. It is also pointed out that these studies usually refer to well in the past, when the level of the agricultural research investment was generally lower and rates of return consequently larger than might now be expected. It is, however, concluded that the production‐function approach needs extension and refinement, and better values of key parameters determined, before it could be used quantitatively as a determinant of research policy.
THE EGGS AUTHORITY: A CRITICAL APPRAISAL
Authors: Hallam David
Published: November 2008

The recent report of the official Review Committee recommended that the Eggs Authority be dissolved after fourteen years in operation. This paper gives a critical appraisal of the functioning and role of the Authority.
AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ADVERTISING AND SALES: A CASE STUDY OF THE LIQUID MILK MARKET
Authors: Hessner Catherine , Mellor C. J.
Published: November 2008

The conventional econometric treatment of the possible dynamic relationship between two variables such as sales and advertising involves ad hoc assumptions concerning causality and lag structure. This paper focuses attention on a technique which tries to detect an empirical relationship between the advertising and sales of liquid milk. Our conclusions suggest that, at least in the market examined, the effectiveness of advertising in increasing sales appears to be limited.
A QUARTERLY MODEL FOR THE EEC BEEF SECTOR
Authors: Arregui Jorge H.
Published: November 2008

The aim of the paper is to forecast the behaviour of the EEC‐9 beef and veal sector‐particularly exports‐starting from a quarterly econometric model explaining past developments of the principal macro‐economic variables from 1976 to 1982 inclusive. Attention is focused on production as its evolution has been and is considered to continue to be the most important factor influencing the development of the EEC‐9 external trade of beef and veal. The paper presents firstly a theoretical approach as a basis for formulating the econometric model. Then, the parameters of the structural model are estimated for forecasting purposes; conclusions follow.
EXITS FROM THE AUSTRALIAN DAIRY INDUSTRY CAUSES AND PREDICTIONS
Authors: Quiggin J. , Gargett D. , Barrett G.
Published: November 2008

An analysis of data from Bureau of Agricultural Economics surveys established that farms that left the dairy industry in the 1970s were generally smaller than average, less profitable, and more likely to be those from which cream was still being delivered in cans. In addition, it was found that the probability of exit seemed to be little affected by movements in the relative prices of dairy products and beef. Predictive models which should prove useful in estimating future rates of exit from dairying were derived. Use of one of the models on 1979–80 data suggests the exit rate from the industry should be easing.
METHODS FOR VALUING COUNTRYSIDE AMENITY: AN OVERVIEW
Authors: Young Trevor , Allen P. Geoffrey
Published: November 2008

The principal methods of valuing ‘non‐market’ goods are presented and reviewed in terms of their basis in economic theory and their advantages and disadvantages in measuring the value of the rural environment. As a general rule, when assumptions are fewer, data requirements are greater but there may also be policy problems for which any one method is inappropriate. In particular, since countryside amenities may offer important intrinsic or non‐use values, the contingent valuation technique, despite its weaknesses, may be preferred.
THE DEVELOPING FRAMEWORK FOR THE ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF FORESTRY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*
Authors: Kula Erhun
Published: November 2008

This paper evaluates the economic worth of forestry projects in the United Kingdom by using two different public sector investment appraisal criteria; the traditional discounted cash flows and the recently‐established sum of discounted consumption flows. In the latter, in view of the intergenerational distribution aspect of government projects, the conventional rules are modified, enabling the decision‐maker to treat all generations, present and future, in an equitable manner. Forestry is an excellent example to highlight the issue that many public sector investment projects re‐distribute income between generations. Its long gestation periods make it obvious that there is more than one generation involved in the venture. In this analysis a one hectare plantation of Sitka spruce, class 20, is considered for a single 50‐year rotation. Three different interest rates, 10 per cent test rate of discount, 5 per cent required rate of return, and 3 per cent forestry target rate are used under 4 different assumptions regarding the future price of timber.
AN APPLICATION OF BASS'S MODEL IN THE ANALYSIS OF DIFFUSION OF COCOA‐SPRAYING CHEMICALS AMONG NIGERIAN COCOA FARMERS
Authors: Akinola Amos A.
Published: November 2008

Several studies on the process of diffusion of agricultural innovations have recently emerged in the literature. They serve as an important link between studies on the establishment of innovations and those in their impact on the economy. However, previous standard diffusion models used in the analysis of diffusion of agricultural innovations assume that the population of potential adopters is identical and that they are all imitators. This assumption may not be realistic in all cases. Hence, it is argued, in this study, that the population of potential adopters is not identical but consists of both innovators and imitators, and a model incorporating the two categories of potential adopters is employed. This model is also assessed against the standard diffusion model to test its superiority. Although the data on the diffusion of cocoa‐spraying chemicals among Nigerian cocoa farmers fit the model well, the result of its statistical evaluation shows little or no improvement over the standard model. This may, however, be due to the nature and composition of the data employed and the need for further refinement of the model.
MEASUREMENT OF MALNUTRITION IN THE THIRD WORLD*
Authors: de Kobbe P.
Published: November 2008

This paper focuses on the measurement of malnutrition in the Third World. Given the lack of adequate data on malnutrition, its quantification involves the use of fairly roundabout methods. This paper reviews two World Bank studies, which link calorie consumption to income using a semi‐log functional form. The first employs arbitrarily imposed equation parameters to arrive at estimates of malnutrition. We calculate alternative nutritional scenarios to illustrate the sensitivity of their results to the arbitrarily imposed parameters. For the second study, which has been empirically estimated, we calculate forecast confidence intervals to evaluate the estimated equations' forecasting performance. Our results indicate that the first study is highly sensitive to the arbitrarily imposed parameters, while the second is not very reliable in forecasting malnutrition. The importance of further work on the subject is therefore stressed.
EC AGRICULTURAL SURPLUSES AND BUDGET CONTROL
Authors: Burrell Alison
Published: November 2008

Attempts to limit the EC agricultural budget have focussed on the problem of controlling surpluses of agricultural products. An alternative strategy is to impose cash limits directly on specific agricultural support expenditures. This paper shows that the coresponsibility measures favoured by the Commission could, with minor modification, become vehicles for cash limit control of support expenditure, but the penalties for over‐production would have to be more severe than in the past. Cash‐limiting policy options are compared in terms of producer incentives and their effect on producer revenues.
THE APPLICATION OF MODIFIED GRIT INPUT‐OUTPUT PROCEDURES TO RURAL DEVELOPMENT ANALYSIS IN GRAMPIAN REGION
Authors: Johns P. M. , Leat P. M. K.
Published: November 2008

Effective agricultural and rural development planning requires a detailed understanding of the rural and wider regional economy. A regional input‐output model has been developed for Grampian Region in North‐East Scotland.

The production of regional input‐output matrices by survey methods is extremely expensive. An alternative method is to adjust mechanistically a national input‐output table by an employment ‐ based location quotient procedure. This paper discusses some important conceptual issues related to the methodology. It also presents the main findings of the Grampian model, in particular those relating to the agri‐business and food complex. The model's implications for regional and rural development are assessed by multiplier analysis and the applicability of the modelling procedures for other regions is considered.
THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN FOOD PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION VARIABILITY: POLICY IMPLICATIONS FOR DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
Authors: Sahn David E. , von Braun Joachim
Published: November 2008

This paper examines whether there is increased inter‐year instability in food consumption at the national level, and to what extent this is attributable to increased instability of food production in the wake of adoption of modern agricultural technology. The data analysed indicates that increased production instability does translate into increased fluctuations in consumption. Nevertheless, year‐to‐year consumption variability among the sample of 38 countries has declined during the past 25 years. This is attributed to improved stocking operations and trade practices which accompany economic growth. Nevertheless, food insecurity, as measured in terms of fluctuations around trend levels of consumption, does remain a problem, especially among the poor. Therefore, policy options to reduce consumption instability are outlined.
AN ARIMA ANALYSIS OF TEA PRICES
Authors: Sapsford David , Varoufakis Y.
Published: November 2008

This paper uses seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average modelling techniques in an analysis of monthly tea prices.
NO FIXED ADDRESS—PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS
Authors: Giles A. K.
Published: November 2008

After an initial excursion into the role of Presidential Addresses, the author examines the growth and shape of the agricultural economics profession in the UK suggesting that, over nearly one hundred years, there have been four distinct phases — and that we might be on the threshold of a fifth. The one thread that has run through this entire history is farm management and some recent developments in the field — in particular the need for net margins as well as gross margins — are examined. The address closes with some personal reflections on ‘being an agricultural economist’.
CONJOINT MEASUREMENT IN HAM QUALITY EVALUATION
Authors: Steenkamp Jan‐Benedict E.M.
Published: November 2008

Conjoint measurement is a technique, recently developed in the fields of psychometrics and consumer research, that can help managers and researchers to obtain insight in the way consumers evaluate the quality of products. The paper reports an application of this technique to quality evaluations with respect to ham. On the average, packing was the most important quality attribute. However, market segmentation was necessary because respondents were rather heterogeneous with respect to the quality evaluation process of ham. Four segments were identified. Consumer characteristics could meaningfully differentiate between the segments. The contributions which conjoint measurement can make to decision making with respect to marketing of agricultural and food products are discussed.
PRICE EXPECTATIONS FORMATION AND REVISION IN THE NERLOVIAN FRAMEWORK WITH APPLICATION TO NIGERIAN FARMERS
Authors: Phillip Dayo O. A. , Abalu George O. I.
Published: November 2008

This paper examines the possibility of endogenising the adaptive price expectations coefficient. The basic structural model, tested with data on area planted to Groundnuts in Nigeria from 1956 to 1987, is formulated and estimated as an extension of the variational parameter hypothesis.
THE FARM AS A FAMILY BUSINESS: A REVIEW
Authors: Gasson R. , Crow G. , Errington A. , Hutson J. , Marsden T. , Winter D. M.
Published: November 2008

Although the great majority of UK farms are run as family businesses, the family dimension of these businesses is frequently neglected. There are nevertheless important inferences to be drawn from studying the farm family, its forms and functions, and the way that the family and the business interact. This calls for a multidisciplinary approach and the review attempts to draw together insights from industrial economics, social anthropology, history and rural sociology as they apply to the farm family business. It then relates these insights to considerations of the family development cycle, processes of inheritance and succession, roles of farmers' wives and multiple‐job farming families. The literature review points to opposing tendencies within the population of farm businesses. Family forms of organisation and relationships may have become less relevant to farming at the lower end of the size scale but more relevant to the conduct of a successful large farm business.
IS PUBLICLY FUNDED AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH EXCESSIVE?
Authors: Thirtle C. , Bottomley P.
Published: November 2008

Public sector agricultural research expenditure in the UK has been cut drastically over the last few years. Estimates of the rate of return to UK agricultural R and D by Wise and Harvey suggest that such cuts may well be economically justified, since returns appear to be low or even negative. This paper shows that if the accepted economic methodology is properly applied to the UK situation, the estimated rate of return may be as high as 70 per cent.
A PLANTING FUNCTION FOR PRIVATE AFFORESTATION IN NORTHERN IRELAND
Authors: Kula E. , McKillop D.
Published: November 2008

Due to food surpluses, farming throughout the EEC has been put under increasing pressure to diversify. In line with this general trend, the Forest Service of the Department of Agriculture in Northern Ireland has endeavoured to increase the acreage under private afforestation. A knowledge of the responsiveness of private plantation to changes in grant aid and the time‐scale involved in the reallocation of land towards afforestation is essential. This paper constructs a planting function, based on distributed lag structures, for private afforestation projects in Northern Ireland in an attempt to provide the relevant information.
FARM DIVERSIFICATION AND RURAL DEVELOPMENT
Authors: Gasson R.
Published: November 2008

Under a new policy initiative, grants will be payable for the setting up of ancillary businesses on or adjacent to farms in the UK. While this initiative is to be welcomed, it is suggested that more could be done to develop the rural economy as a whole. Farm diversification grants, modelled on previous farm capital grant schemes, are focused on a narrow range of activities, for which demand is likely to be limited, and are most appropriate for the larger farm. They imply that farmine will continue to be the main activity and run counter to current trends. The goals of rural development and farm income support might be pursued more effectively by encouraging the creation in rural areas of off‐farm employment, unrelated to agriculture, and suitable for members of families on low‐income farms.
LIBERALISING OECD AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: EFFECTS ON TRADE AND WELFARE
Authors: Tyers R. , Anderson K.
Published: November 2008

A dynamic, stochastic, multi‐commodity model of world food markets is used to estimate the effects of liberalising agricultural policies in industrial countries. The effects on international and domestic prices, on trade volumes and on economic welfare of a phased liberalisation of industrial‐country policies between 1988 and 1992 are compared with the effects of a similar hypothetical liberalisation in the early 1980s. The results suggest that, because of the dramatic increase in agricultural protection during the 1980s, the effects of a liberalisation under the Uruguay Round would be, in real terms, more than double those that would have resulted from a similar liberalisation a decade earlier. Major gainers are consumers in Western Europe and Japan and farmers in developing countries. But the cost to tax‐payers in Western Europe is also escalating, not to mention the burden on non‐agricultural producers in those countries whose competitiveness is reduced by farm policies. These domestic pressures from treasuries and from producers of non‐farm products, together with greater international pressure for reform from agricultural‐exporting countries, have raised the probability of at least some liberalisation during the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations.
EFFECTS OF PROTECTION ON SOUTH AFRICAN COMMERCIAL AGRICULTURE
Authors: van Zyl J. , Groenewald J. A.
Published: November 2008

This paper examines the influence of protection on South African commercial agriculture. It shows that protective trade policy and its effects have been a major source of agricultural change in South Africa, and are at least partially responsible for many of the present problems experienced in South African agriculture. First, it outlines how structural cost‐push inflation resulted from the protective trade policies and shows the effect thereof on farm receipts, expenses and balance sheets. This is followed by changes in farm structure, mainly size, number of farms, and the ratio of capital and labour in the production process. The paper concludes with some policy aspects.
UK GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURE—IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL OUTPUT UNDER THE COMMON AGRICULTURAL POLICY
Authors: Russell N. P. , Power A. P.
Published: November 2008

The change in government expenditure which accompanies change in agricultural land use and output is an important parameter in current policy decisions. This change is estimated in this paper using a simple accounting model which recognises the diversity of support schemes in operation and the interaction between them. Use of the model is illustrated by estimating the effects of changes in beef, sheepmeat and cereals output under alternative assumptions about market conditions, yield levels and land classes affected. The paper concludes by discussing other ways in which the model might be used.
PRODUCT MARKET DISTORTIONS AND THE RETURNS TO BROILER CHICKEN RESEARCH IN CANADA
Authors: Zachariah O. E. R. , Fox G. , Brinkman G. L.
Published: November 2008

The economic returns to Canadian federal broiler chicken research between 1968 and 1984 were estimated using the economic surplus approach. The impact of distortions in the product market and of the excess burden of taxes on the net benefits of research and the distribution of gross benefits between producers and consumers were assessed. Rates of return to research investments at the margin over this period were estimated to be between 52% and 60%. All of the benefits of this research have accrued to consumers, and producers have actually been made worse off by broiler research under the existing regime of supply management.
THE WELFARE IMPLICATIONS OF NITROGEN LIMITATION POLICIES
Authors: McCorriston S. , Sheldon I.
Published: November 2008

The effects of nitrogen limitation policies on the UK fertiliser market are considered. Using a simulation model which incorporates some structural aspects of the UK fertiliser industry, the extent and distribution of the welfare effects of nitrogen tax and quota policies are estimated. The results show that, while farmers lose from both policies, the main fertiliser manufacturers may gain in the short run from a quota policy, while profits would be reduced with a nitrogen tax policy.