Recentna imigracija radne snage u Hrvatsku: razmjeri, trendovi, obilježja
Authors:   Odsjek za demografiju i hrvatsko iseljeništvo, Fakultet hrvatskih studija Sveučilišta u Zagrebu, Zagreb, Komušanac Monika 
Published: February 2024

The paper aims to analyse the determinants of international migration among the Croatian population in the recent period following Croatia's entry into the European Union in 2013, with a special focus on the increased immigration to Croatia. The fundamental assumption is that, in addition to emigration from Croatia, the immigration of foreign workers to Croatia is also on the rise. This influx is primarily from economically less developed Asian and African countries. Meanwhile, immigration from the traditional workforce pool, the area of Southeastern Europe, is decreasing significantly. However, this region remains relatively the dominant source of migrants. Workforce immigration to Croatia has been singled out as a separate research unit, which not only examines the scale and basic characteristics of “foreigners” in Croatia but also provides an overview of the factors conditioning the existing relations within the labour market in Croatia. Demographic trends at the state level have significantly affected changes in the working-age and active population in Croatia. This includes a reduction in the work potential of the resident population. In addition to these established changes, other challenges in the labour market, primarily educational and profile-related, can be singled out. In addition to the reduction in the number of the working-age population, there is a structural mismatch between the current supply and demand for jobs. This mismatch results in either a shortage or a surplus of workers in certain industries, consequently contributing to the overall increase in general unemployment among the resident population and/or the need to compensate for the lack of labour through “import”. In 2015, Croatia experienced a very high unemployment rate, close to 43%, among young people up to the age of 25. This figure was twice as high as the average for EU member states. Additionally, there was a significant number of young people in Croatia who were not active in the labour market. Despite having no obstacles and not being included in the education and/ or training system, these individuals were not actively seeking employment either (Obadić, 2017). The total number of persons who immigrated to Croatia from 2016 to 2022 slightly exceeds 220,000, with 70% of them being foreigners. Furthermore, a much faster relative increase in the immigration of foreign citizens was observed compared to the immigration of Croatian citizens, especially in 2021 and 2022. The relative share of 84% of immigrants of working age confirms the assumption that it is primarily a question of workforce migration. This statistical evidence suggests that the arrival of foreigners to work in Croatia constitutes a significant portion of this migration. According to the total number of foreigners who immigrated to Croatia and their country of origin, three geographical areas stand out: other European countries (countries outside the EEA) with almost 67%, Asian countries (14,35%) and European Union countries with 13,66%. The largest relative increase in immigration was registered from Asia. However, in absolute terms, more than 105,000 foreigners immigrated to Croatia from other European countries, primarily from BiH, Serbia, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, etc. (2016–2022). The analysis of external migration from 2016 to today indicates a number of changes in migration processes, including their character, nature, volume, etc. They will affect the main sources of foreign labour in Croatia, signalling the beginning of the substitution of the traditional, regional labour pool with new emitting areas, i.e. workers from economically disadvantaged Asian and African countries. In 2021, the majority of foreigners, accounting for 35%, immigrated to the City of Zagreb and Zagreb County, while 37% chose the six “Adriatic” counties, mostly Split-Dalmatia, Istria, and Primorje-Gorski Kotar County. Although foreign immigration is significantly lower in other counties, the noteworthy achievement of a positive migration balance “with foreigners” in all counties in 2021 confirms the assumption that this determinant will increasingly impact the total balance of counties with foreign countries. In the last three years, slightly more than 31,000 requests from citizens of EEA member states for temporary residence in Croatia were approved. However, based on the purpose of stay, only 7,000 requests were approved for work in Croatia. From 2017 to 2020, 26,500 people met the conditions for permanent residence in Croatia, predominantly Germans, Slovenians, Italians and Austrians of retirement age who are extensively investing in real estate along the Adriatic. In conclusion, it should be noted how the two characteristic processes of increased immigration to Croatia in the last 5 years differ. The immigration of foreigners from non-European countries is primarily related to labour force migration, which is still in its early stages. On the other hand, there is the specific immigration of citizens of EU member states who, in their retirement age, immigrate to Croatia without work potential. The absolute and relative relations between these two groups will ultimately affect the total migration balance of “foreigners”