bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Inter Arma Caritas: Evolution and Nature of International Humanitarian Law
Authors: Meurant Jacques
Published: March 2007

International humanitarian law can be defined as the principles and rules which regulate hostilities in order to attenuate their hardships: they aim at safeguarding military personnel placed 'hors de combat' and persons not taking part in hostilities; they also determine the rights and duties of belligerents in the conduct of operations and limit the choice of means of doing harm. This law combines two ideas of a different nature, one legal and the other moral, which may explain the apparent paradoxes it raises (Part 1). The evolution of humanitarian thought through the ages (Part 2) — as well as the attitude of States, the weight of history and politics — have determined the uneasy but progressive codification of humanitarian norms (Part 3). To understand the very nature of humanitarian law, we have to take into account the so-called 'military necessity' which may be at the origin of limitations, if not gaps, in the development and the implementation of humanitarian law. However, because it is also indebted to superior principles derived from established custom, principles of humanity and the dictates of public conscience, humanitarian law has acquired specificities which make it universal and obligatory. If humanitarian law is a law concluded by States, its real aim is the protection of the human person (Part 4).
Soviet Defence Costs—the Unquantifiable Burden?
Authors: Jacobsen Carl Gustav
Published: March 2007

Realistic appraisals of the level and sustamability of Soviet defence efforts and the burden that these place on the Soviet economy are crucial to both Western and Soviet security debates and to defence and foreign policy considerations. Yet, official figures on Soviet military spending are notoriously inadequate. This article addresses some of the problems associated with official Soviet, US and NATO presentations, and then proceeds to survey more recent academic work on the topic—presenting results, caveats and remaining questions. It explains the sometimes debatable premises and methodological uncertainties and approaches that lead different analysts to different conclusions. In reviewing the specialist debate the article seeks to clarify outstanding issues and thus help chart the course of future research.
The Soviet Defence Burden and Arms Control
Authors: Maddock Rowland T.
Published: March 2007

Poor economic performance m the Soviet Union has led to a view in the West that Soviet leaders might seek an accommodation with the US which would allow them to transfer resources to the civilian economy. The economy has been characterized by declining growth in population, capital and produc tivity. Economic evidence suggests that defence priority has adversely affected economic performance by attracting a disproportionate share of resources and, in protecting military producers from the worst aspects of central planning, by imposing the systemic burden on the civilian economy. Econometric investigation by Western economists shows that the benefit in terms of higher economic growth from substantial decline in the growth of military expenditures is quite small, due to the inefficiency of the civilian investment process. An arms limitation is unlikely to yield a substantial transfer of R & D resources. A more fruitful source of economic benefit is likely to be the relaxation of restrictions on civilian enterprise. The military view of economic reform is likely to be ambivalent. It recognizes the need for a strong modern economy but is probably reluctant to yield its priority status. The international sector offers little prospect of relief. The East Europeans have their own economic problems and the Reagan administration has tightened its control on exports of technology which might at the margin ease the Soviet economic constraint. The resource saving from an arms agreement alone is unlikely to be sufficient to avoid the need for a fundamental re-assessment of policies.
The Correlates of Arms Importation
Authors: Pearson Frederic S.
Published: March 2007

The basic question of why nations import arms is addressed by identifying clusters of variables most closely correlated with arms import levels, both for the world's aggregate of countries and by region. From prior impressionistic studies of arms transfers a set of six hypothesized clusters is proposed, entailing: (1) national characteristics such as geography and population; (2) governmental characteristics such as regime type; (3) military characteristics such as defense expenditures; (4) economic characteristics such as degree of wealth and level of trade; (5) international conflict involvements; and (6) international political alignment and alliance entanglements. Each of these is measured with data from Kidron & Smith's, The War Atlas, supplemented by ACDA's, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, and by scholarly studies. The cluster with the largest impact on arms import levels consisted of military variables, especially budgetary expenditures and nuclear status. Economic and alignment variables were next in overall importance, followed by conflict involvement; national characteristics and regime type had very little influence. The inertial nature of arms importation was indicated by the high correlation between 1970s and 1980s import levels. Size of the military, levels of military expenditure, and war involvement in the 1980s had the strongest association with Latin arms acquisition, while military spending and nuclear potential dominated for the Middle East. In East Asia and the Pacific, beginning levels of indigenous weapons production and relatively low defense expenditures were associated with imports, while the impact of South Africa caused African import levels to be highly related to wealth, armed force size, and war involvements. In Europe, bloc politics and the presence of foreign bases constituted the main correlates of arms importation. The findings imply the need to control militarization if the global arms trade is to be contained.
Some Conceptual Issues and Empirical Trends in the Study of Successful Mediation in International Relations
Authors: Bercovitch Jacob , Anagnoson J. Theodore , Wille Donnette L.
Published: March 2007

Despite its ubiquity and importance as a means of managing international conflict, mediation has only recently begun to be studied in a systematic manner. This article utilizes an original dataset of international disputes and mediation efforts occurring in the 1945-89 period to assess the character of international mediation and to examine the contextual and process variables which affect mediation outcomes. These variables are classed under four categories: (1) the nature of the disputing parties, (2) the nature of the dispute itself, (3) the identity and characteristics of the mediator, and (4) the strategies and tactics which the mediator employs. In this study, a preliminary analysis is undertaken to determine the nature and degree to which the variables in each of these categories affect mediation outcomes. The results indicate that dispute intensity, mediator strategies and dispute issues exert the greatest influence on the effectiveness of international mediation. A complex of other factors, including the timing of entry into mediation, the power disparity between the disputants and the nature of the disputants' former relations also demonstrate an effect, though somewhat weaker, on mediation outcomes. The article presents conclusions on the effectiveness of international mediation and points the way for more much-needed empirical work in this area.
Did Accommodation Work? Two Soviet Neighbors 1964-88
Authors: KNUDSEN OLAV FAGELUND
Published: March 2007

The article raises the question of the optimal strategy for ensuring the long-term security of small, contiguous neighbors of great powers. The main options available to the small state may be called `accommodation' and `intransigence'. The author seeks to determine whether the small state's choice makes a difference to the great power next door. One of several possible avenues to an answer is to look for observable changes in great power policy which may conceivably be attributed to the small state's policy. Thus, the author evaluates possible effects of Turkish and Norwegian accommodative policies vis-a-vis the USSR in the 1964-88 period, by comparing the Soviet deployment of ground forces near these two neighbors. Data are drawn primarily from The Military Balance. The data show different patterns over time on the two NATO flanks: In the north there is no sign of change, whereas in the south there are easily observable reductions stretching over most of Turkey's most accommodative period. The author suggests in conclusion that accommodation is probably an inappropriate choice for Norway given strategic conditions in the north, while it may have fitted the south flank well during this period.
Counterinsurgent Paramilitarism: A Philippine Case Study
Authors: KOWALEWSKI DAVID
Published: March 2007

Paramilitarism represents a common mode of regime response to insurgency. Two competing perspectives, the benevolent and the critical, offer differing predictions about paramilitary behaviors and public response. The study maps out the theoretical issues and conducts an empirical analysis of counterinsurgent paramilitarism in the Philippines in 1987-88 using newspaper data. Four dimensions of paramilitarism are examined: mobilization, constitutionalism, order-maintenance, and reactive public behavior. The results offer more support for the critical than for the benevolent perspective. The data reveal elite sponsorship and deviant social composition; perceptions of unconstitutionality and illegal behaviors; disruptive and abusive activities; and far more anti- than pro-paramilitary sentiment and political behavior. The findings hold true when specifications for sectoral spread, geography, paramilitary groups, and time are introduced. It is concluded that paramilitarism is a counterproductive counterinsurgent strategy.
NATO, Rational Escalation and Flexible Response
Authors: ZAGARE FRANK C.
Published: March 2007

A multi-stage escalation model is developed in which each stage is taken as a psychologically distinct and empirically feasible mode of conflict available to two states in a hostile, deterrent relationship. Each stage is defined by a generic, extensive-form game of mutual deterrence in which the credibility of each player's threat is allowed to vary. In the multi-stage model these games are linked to one another by way of a common outcome, creating a new game with a distinct dynamic. The results of previous research on one- and two-stage games are summarized and the model extended to games with three stages. A three-stage escalation game composed solely of one of the three possible one-stage deterrence games has strategic characteristics identical to those of its component parts: mutual credibility at each stage implies stable deterrence; mutually incredible threats at every stage result in an unstable deterrence relationship, as does an asymmetry of credibility at all three stages of the game. In other ways, however, three-stage games are more like their two-stage than their one-stage counterparts. Three-stage games exhibit the same stability-instability paradox revealed in two-stage structures and continue to support the argument that escalation dominance at any stage of the game is usually destabilizing. And, as in two-stage escalation games, the end game is the most diagnostic of the stability characteristics of a status quo outcome. The implications of the model for NATO strategy and arms control under a variety of conditions are discussed. Assumptions about end game credibility are shown to be critical in determining the wisdom of eliminating either one or two conflict stages.
Coups d'État in Africa: A Political Economy Approach
Authors: O'Kane Rosemary H. T.
Published: March 2007

Current explanations of African coups d'état concentrate on national political factors and generate predictive models for both successful and unsuccessful coups. The explanation offered here challenges these approaches through the application of a probabilistic theory and the model deduced from it which have already demonstrated their value for coups in general. This theory holds the underlying causes of successful coups to be economic rather than political, and views coups as the consequence of the lack of political control which results from the domestic uncertainties produced by world market trade. Specifically, it is argued that the underlying causes of coups are specialization in and dependency on primary goods for export, exacerbated by poverty. Such preconditions render even the most responsible governments open to accusations of incompetence and corruption, so inviting coups d'état. The chance of a successful coup actually occurring has, though, also to take into account the existence of factors which hinder coups. Two general obstacles are suggested: the absence of a previous coup and the continuing or historic presence of foreign troops since independence. A testable hypothesis is deduced from this theory which is examined through the application of discriminant analysis to data for three sets of African countries. The models produced are shown to support the theory and predictions for future coups and policy implications are considered. In sum, by no means all African countries are predicted to have coups d'état and in a substantial proportion of cases escape from future coups can be avoided only through international trade policies.
The Arab—Israeli Conflict: Learning Conflict Resolution
Authors: Bar-Siman-Tov Yaacov
Published: March 2007

The Arab—Israeli conflict, which at first had a zero-sum, protracted nature, has changed over time because of effective conflict management that has made conflict reduction and even resolution possible. Following an adaptation process in response to the outcomes of the Six Day War, and the shifts from suppression to regulation, and vice versa, both sides experienced after the Yom Kippur War some learning process by which they became ready to transform their mode of thinking in the conflict. However, without the active encouragement of the USA, the learning process could not be developed. However, the Arab—Israeli conflict is not a single conflict, especially when analyzing and evaluating movements toward new forms of behavior in a given conflict system. The differences in the rate and scope of learning in each conflict influenced differently the shifts in conflict management, and from conflict management to conflict resolution. An initial learning process proved to be necessary for shifting from regulation to institutionalization, but this was not sufficient to move from institutionalization to resolution. There was a need for a further and deeper learning process to enable conflict resolution.
Foreign Influence, Political Conflicts and Conflict Resolution in the Caribbean
Authors: Mars Perry
Published: March 2007

This article focuses on the interconnection between international factors and domestic political conflicts in the Third World context, with specific reference to Caribbean countries. Theories suggesting either no correlation or a direct linear linkage between international and domestic conflicts are criticized. It is posited that (a) the linkage between international pressures and domestic political conflicts is usually mediated by domestic class forces, particularly the contentious role of the middle classes, which invariably control Caribbean states, (b) these middle-class controlled states usually display a preference for the more authoritarian approaches to conflict resolution; (c) states subjected to the most destabilizing international pressures, such as the ideologically deviant (or pro-socialist) states, tend to display the more intensive levels of both political conflicts and repressive force; and (d) these conflict patterns harbour largely negative implications for democratic developments in the region. It is suggested, further, that approaches to conflict resolution should involve institutionalized changes which foster the more direct, democratic inclusion of the subordinate classes in the political decision-working process. Supportive data and evidence are drawn from periodical news reports and other documentary archival sources pertaining to the English-speaking Caribbean during the post-colonial period.
Crossing the Divide: Community Relations in Northern Ireland
Authors: Knox Colin , Hughes Joanne
Published: March 2007

Despite the elusiveness of a `solution' to the Northern Ireland problem, either politically or militarily, many public policy issues (education, housing, employment) have been re-examined to address the underlying causes of divisiveness between the two communities. This article looks at the contributions of one such policy initiative, a `bottom-up' community-based approach to peace under the auspices of local authorities. Qualitative evidence from those charged with implementing a community relations programme is analysed and an initial assessment of its impact offered.
Antinuclear and Pronuclear Empowerment and Activism
Authors: Horvath Peter
Published: March 2007

This study tested the proposition that university undergraduates would have higher empowerment scores with regard to advocating for antinuclear rather than pronuclear weapons issues. In addition, empowerment would be a determining factor of antinuclear but not of pronuclear activism among these students. Two components of empowerment were assessed in a decision-making task, namely, intentions to deal with the problems of nuclear weapons and confidence in those decisions. The intentions to deal with nuclear weapons issues were assessed by the students' endorsements of coping actions to deal with problem situations presented on a computer. Perceived empowerment was measured by their self-rated confidence in the correctness of the decisions. Concerns or worries about nuclear issues were measured by the frequency of self-reported antinuclear and pronuclear thoughts. The students' previous activities related to antinuclear and pronuclear advocacy were also measured with a questionnaire. The major findings were that antinuclear concerns, intentions to engage in antinuclear coping actions, and confidence in the decisions all contributed to the determination of antinuclear activism. In contrast, only pronuclear concerns determined pronuclear activism. It was concluded that empowerment is situationally determined or limited to specific issues in any particular group. The findings were discussed with reference to increasing the activism of citizens through public policies that are sensitive to the circumstances of particular groups and provide organized support for the development of empowerment on specific peace issues.
The Continuation of History: Power Transition Theory and the End of the Cold War
Authors: Lemke Douglas
Published: March 2007

This article offers an interpretation of the current international situation from the perspective of power transition theory. Previous efforts to understand what the end of the Cold War means for international relations have provided only part of the picture. Optimistic views tend to deny the possibility of the emergence of new threats, while pessimistic arguments generally fail to recognize that the prospects for major war have been significantly reduced by the dramatic events of the last half decade. The interpretation offered here is potentially advantageous because it draws insights from a theory with a long record of empirical support. Power transition theory is consistent with the existence of a `Long Peace' since World War II, with the Cold War's peaceful end, and thus provides confidence to those who would use it to interpret the prospects for the future. The conclusion offered here is that while the end of the Cold War offers reason for celebration, there is also cause for concern.
The Dependent Variable of the Domestic-External Conflict Relationship: Anecdotes, Theories and Systematic Studies
Authors: Heldt Birger
Published: March 2007

A widely held thesis asserts that public and elite dissatisfaction influences the external conflict behavior of states. Characteristic of many anecdotes, speculations, theoretically informed discussions and systematic studies is a belief in a dependent variable, which ranges from diplomatic protest to war initiation. Whether almost 35 years of systematic research has demonstrate that the actual use of armed force is within this dependent variable's domain of application is investigated, but no convincing support is found for it. The essay ends with some points on why this is the case, as well as on how future research might proceed towards settling the issue: one path is to consider the implications from the findings of the dyadic democratic peace; another is to direct more attention to the rationale for the relationship, its causal paths and key concepts.
Peace Initiatives and Public Opinion: The Domestic Context of Conflict Resolution
Authors: Mor Ben D.
Published: March 2007

Peace initiatives to resolve enduring rivalries are launched in a two-level setting, where foreign policy imperatives interact with domestic imperatives. Public opinion, the support and mobilization of which is required for sustaining an extended conflict, plays a critical role in its resolution, especially when government preferences diverge from majority opinion. This article uses the war-proneness literature to define the domestic context in which public opinion becomes a constraint on accommodation or a trigger for it. In each context, the government must weigh the benefits of pursuing its preferred course of action against the prospects of losing office as a result of public dissatisfaction. This dilemma involves three parameters: the conflict-related beliefs of the leadership, its sensitivity to public opinion, and the structure of public opinion. The values that these parameters assume, and their configuration, comprise the domestic conditions that govern leadership decisions on peace initiatives. A case study of Israeli decision-making on the 1993 Oslo Accord serves to demonstrate the applicability and plausibility of the theoretical analysis.
Arms Transfer Dependence and Foreign Policy Conflict
Authors: Kinsella David
Published: March 2007

There are both military and political dimensions to arms transfers, and their effects on state behavior may not be the same. In this article I examine the degree to which arms transfers and arms transfer dependence interact to affect foreign policy conflict. I hypothesize that, as a transfer of military capability, weapons shipments increase the tendency of the recipient to strike a conflictual posture in its foreign policy, while arms transfer dependence restrains that tendency. An arms recipient faces the possibility that weapons shipments will be curtailed during periods of regional crisis and hostility, and when a state is dependent on one or a few major suppliers for the bulk of its imported weaponry, the costs associated with supply restrictions increases. This should encourage restraint on the part of states otherwise emboldened by arms acquisitions. My analysis treats conflictual behavior as a multiplicative function of arms transfers and arms transfer dependence. Parameter estimates are derived from time series data for nine states engaged in enduring rivalries during the Cold War. For some of these states, there is evidence that arms shipments encouraged more conflictual foreign policies; but there is also evidence that this propensity was tempered by the degree of arms transfer dependence. The model is non-linear, so the precise effects of dependence vary depending on context - i.e. the state's current level of arms importation and dependence - but realistic predictions involve changes in foreign policy conflict equal to 5-25% of their mean levels during the period.
Crisis Magnitude and Interstate Conflict: Changes in the Arab-Israel Dispute
Authors: Ben-Yehuda Hemda , Sandler Shmuel
Published: March 2007

This research aims to analyze change in the Arab-Israel conflict. At its core lies the following theoretical question: How can change in a protracted conflict be detected? Four empirical questions are then addressed. (1) Is the Arab-Israel conflict undergoing change? (2) If so in which realm did change occur? (3) When did change take place? (4) How can change be explained? The theoretical setting explaining change is based on both realist/neo-realist and the regime/neo-liberal approaches in the study of world politics. This essay integrates qualitative and quantitative methods. The quantitative empirical data is drawn from the Middle East section of the International Crisis Behavior (ICB) database. To measure trends of state behavior in crises, a Crisis Magnitude Index (CMI) has been devised, consisting of three realms: context, process and termination. This index is applied to the 25 crises in the Arab-Israel conflict, between 1947 and 1994, and its total scores are linked to changing conditions which affect the extent of conflict escalation or moderation.
The United Nations International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights: Does It Make a Difference in Human Rights Behavior?
Authors: Keith Linda Camp
Published: March 2007

Formal acceptance of international agreements on human rights has progressed to the point where currently over three-quarters of the UN member states are parties to the International Covenant on Political and Civil Rights. In fact, becoming a party to this covenant seems to be concomitant with joining the UN. Of the newly independent states in Eastern Europe and in the region of the former Soviet Union, only Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Moldova, and Macedonia have not joined the treaty. This article tests empirically whether becoming a party to this international treaty (and its optional protocol) has an observable impact on the state party's actual behavior. The hypothesis is tested across 178 countries over an eighteen-year period (1976-93) and across four different measures of state human rights behavior. Initial bivariate analyses demonstrate some statistically significant differences between the behavior of states parties and the behavior of non-party states. However, this difference does not appear in the bivariate analysis that compares the states parties' behavior before becoming a party to the treaty with their behavior after becoming a party state. When the analysis progresses to more sophisticated multivariate analysis, in which factors known to affect human rights are controlled, the impact of the covenant and its optional protocol disappears altogether. Overall, this study suggests that it may be overly optimistic to expect that being a party to this international covenant will produce an observable direct impact.
Instruments of Security or Tools of Repression? Arms Imports and Human Rights Conditions in Developing Countries
Authors: Blanton Shannon Lindsey
Published: March 2007

Scholars traditionally have focused on arms as a means of deterring, initiating, maintaining, or terminating international war. Indeed, based on the assumption that a coercive military response is required if security is to be preserved, arms are widely viewed as an instrument of defense from external threat. In the developing world, however, internal threats are far more common. Yet the role of arms in facilitating domestic political violence has received far less scholarly attention. This article endeavors to expand upon both our understanding of arms as a source of conflict and our knowledge of the correlates of human rights repression. To this end, this study tests the relationship between the importation of arms and the repression of personal integrity rights. Employing a pooled time-series cross-sectional design, the patterns of arms acquisitions behavior and human rights violations are examined for developing countries for the years 1982 through 1992. The results indicate that arms imports by developing countries are linked to poor human rights conditions. Thus, arms acquisitions appear to contribute to repression by making violent political acts more feasible.
Frequency, Specialization, and Violence in Offending Careers
Authors: PIQUERO ALEX
Published: March 2007

Do frequent, violent offenders possess the same characteristics as frequent, nonviolent offenders? Although only a few studies have examined this question, a few limitations reduce the generalizability of the findings. In an effort to overcome some of those limitations, this article uses data from the Philadelphia Collaborative Perinatal Project to examine two interrelated questions. First, do frequent, violent offenders possess the same characteristics as frequent, nonviolent offenders? Second, is there specificity or generality in violence? In general, the results suggest that frequent, violent offenders are indistinguishable from frequent, nonviolent offenders and that involvement in violence is primarily a function of increasing offense frequency; that is, there is no tendency to specialize in violence. Implications for future theoretical research are addressed.
Mapping an Opportunity Surface of Residential Burglary
Authors: GROFF ELIZABETH R. , LA VIGNE NANCY G.
Published: March 2007

The use of geographic information systems (GIS) to understand spatial patterns of crime and criminal behavior has become more prevalent in recent years, but with a few exceptions these analyses fall short of serving as predictive tools. The recent introduction of user-friendly, raster-based mapping software, designed primarily for environmental and planning purposes, offers new tools for examining and predicting crime and criminal behavior. By applying opportunity theories to the crime of residential burglary, this article examines the utility of raster-based mapping software for predicting desirable and undesirable locations of burglaries, as well as likely locations for crime displacement or diffusion. The findings reveal that the model holds promise for serving these prediction purposes.
Social Psychological Foundations for Using Criminals in the Rehabilitation of Criminals
Authors: Cressey Donald R.
Published: March 2007

Sutherland's principle of differential association and more gen eral symbolic interactionist theory provide the foundations for development of a set of theory for the rehabilitation of criminals and delinquents. If social conduct is a function of attitudes em bodied in words learned from membership groups and reference groups, attempts to change that conduct should concentrate on processes for avoiding some verbalizations and acquiring others. In these processes, criminals and delinquents themselves can be used effectively to introduce guilt and shame into the psychologi cal makeup of those who would commit crime, as well as to avoid production of further criminality, or a different form of crimi nality, among the population whose change is sought.
The Extent of Recidivism among Juvenile Delinquents in a Metropolitan Area
Authors: Ball John C. , Simpson Alice
Published: March 2007

This study of officially recorded delinquency in the Lexington, Ky., Standard Metropolitan Statistical Area found that 60 per cent of the boys and 48 per cent of the girls appearing in court in 1960 had two or more recorded offenses from 1952 through 1961. The mean age at time of first court appearance for the male recidivists was 12.9.

We conclude that juvenile delinquency has an early commence ment, persists throughout adolescence, is widespread (20 per cent of all boys in the metropolitan area appear in court) , and is endemic to lower-class census tracts.
Urbanization and Male Delinquency in Ghana
Authors: Weinberg S. Kirson
Published: March 2007

The urbanization process in Ghana involves the local commu nity, the family, the school, and the peer group in a continuous sequence of influences upon the behavior of youth. Initial effects of urbanization are a disproportionate age concentration, an un even male-female ratio, and the diminution of traditional kin ship controls which are replaced by the less effective controls of the contemporary urban family. The male delinquency which oc curs as a consequence of these factors, in both the central city and the adjacent villages, is also affected by the urban gangs that roam into the villages periodically to steal and to recruit mem bers. Delinquent behavior may be seen as an adaptation by youths who have become alienated from the family and school and are thrust into a marginal social position for which the urban community lacks the institutions and agencies to channel the youngsters' needs and energies into conventional outlets. In this anomic state, some boys become attracted to deviant peers in the street society and look to them for guidance. These deviant reac tions by youths can be seen more readily in the newly developing urban societies than in the more complicated urban societies of Western countries.
Uniform Parole Reports: A Feasibility Study
Authors: Gottfredson Don M. , Ballard Kelley B. , O'Leary Vincent
Published: March 2007

At the request of leading national parole organizations, the National Parole Institutes undertook a study to determine whether a useful information system describing the results of parole can be developed as a joint effort of paroling authori ties.

A tentative model for uniform parole statistics was devised by representatives of twenty-nine parole agencies. The model was tested by eight agencies, which contributed data monthly, and was examined further by sixteen agencies. The result is a workable data collection system, a common vocabulary, and pro cedures for feedback to participating agencies.

The data collected during the study demonstrate that com parisons of agency effectiveness must take into account differ ences in the kinds of offenders paroled.

The study shows that the tentative model ultimately can pro vide a firm basis for meaningful analyses of parole experience based on uniform reporting from all our diverse parole systems. A three-year study has been initiated to develop the Uniform Parole Reporting System.
The Presentence Report and the Decision-Making Process
Authors: Carter Robert M.
Published: March 2007

The decision-making process in corrections has seldom been examined. Drawing upon data compiled during the National Institute of Mental Health's San Francisco Project, this study examines some aspects of decision-making at the presentence level. Some factors taken into consideration in this analysis are the order in which data are collected; the significance of various data (offense, prior record, plea, etc.) in reaching a decision; whether certain data are significant in confirming, modifying, or rejecting decisions; and variations among the decision-making styles of individual probation and parole officers.
A Descriptive Personality Study of Delinquency-prone Adolescents
Authors: Baker John W. , Spielberg Mimi J.
Published: March 2007

Thirty-eight delinquency-prone adolescent males (school drop outs) were compared with 45 in-school adolescent males on 10 personality variables as measured by the Jesness Inventory. Age, IQ, and geographical location were controlled. Data was col lected in a specific metropolitan area showing a significantly high delinquency rate. Analysis of variance shows a significant interaction between these groups and the personality variables. Results show the delinguency-prone group to be significantly (p < .01) more Immature and Repressive, less Affective and Socially Anxious than the controls. An additional comparison with an institutionalized population permits some speculation as to patterning effects of personality variables over the three groups.
The Illinois Experience
Authors: Joo Shin H. , Kerstetter Wayne A.
Published: March 2007

In order to examine arrest rate changes of drug patients after their participation in drug abuse rehabilitation programs, the present study analyzes interview reports and official arrest records of 772 patients who participated in the Illinois Drug Abuse Program, a methadone-centered multi-modality program. The data indicate that arrest rates among the sample have dropped significantly during their participation in the Program. The reduction rate, based on self- reported data, is 43 per cent. The reduction rate, based on the official arrest records, is 62 per cent. The official arrest record study shows further that the reduction of arrest rate is greatest for vice crimes, second greatest for narcotics offenses, and third greatest for prop erty crimes.
A Behavioral Modification Program for Adult Drug Offenders
Authors: Polakow Robert L. , Doctor Ronald M.
Published: March 2007

This study describes a behavior modification program designed specifically to deal with adult probationers. The program in volves a three-stage process in which successively more difficult behaviors are achieved and maintained on reinforcement while deviant and drug-related behaviors are gradually diminished through counterconditioning. The results of this program are compared against traditional probation on probation-relevant criteria such as new arrests, violations of probation, attendance, and months of employment. Significant effects were achieved on all criteria over traditional probationary contact. The behavior modification approach described is offered as a viable alternative to traditional probation methods.
Public Opinion regarding Crime, Criminal Justice, and Related Topics
Authors: Hindelang Michael J.
Published: March 2007

Results of surveys of public opinion regarding topics of im portance to criminal justice are widely available from a variety of sources. In addition to national pollsters who regularly in clude such questions in their periodic polls, governmental com missions often conduct in-depth surveys on specialized topics. Although these public opinion data offer a wealth of critical information which can be of value to criminal justice planners, practitioners, and academicians alike, these data have been largely ignored. The primary purpose of this paper is to explore the nature, scope, and sources of public opinion data which are currently available.
How to Shorten the Follow-up Period in Parole Studies
Authors: Kantrowitz Nathan
Published: March 2007

One of the major problems of correctional research in such areas as parole violation has been the need for a follow-up period of two or more years after all parolees have been released. The following article proposes, through the secondary analysis of a rigidly scientific study, that for policy purposes this lengthy follow-up period can be shortened to no more than one year, and possibly no more than six months after the beginning of a study. The results suggest the possibility of cheaper and more flexible studies.
Court Processing Versus Diversion of Status Offenders: a Test of Deterrence and Labeling Theories
Authors: Rausch Sharla
Published: March 2007

Two theoretical perspectives, labeling and deterrence, lie at the heart of the current controversy regarding status offenders. These perspectives predict discrepant effects from juvenile court and community-based processing on subsequent behavior. Using data collected during an LEAA-funded evaluation of Connecticut's Deinstitutionalization of Status Offenders Project, this paper compares the effects of diversion programs with those of juvenile court processing on subsequent delin quency. The results indicate that it makes no difference, with respect to official re cidivism, whether status offenders experience juvenile court processing or a diver sion program. Thus, there is no support for one program over the other on the basis of either deterrent or negative labeling effects.
Multiple Gating: A Multistage Assessment Procedure for Identifying Youths at Risk for Delinquency
Authors: LOEBER ROLF , DISHION THOMAS J. , PATTERSON GERALD R.
Published: March 2007

A multistage screening device, called “multiple gating,” is presented to screen delinquent youths from nondelinquent youths. The concurrent validity of the screening device was tested on a sample of 102 12- to 16-year-old boys. The multiple-gating component consisted of three increasingly more expensive sequential assessments. Teacher ratings of the boys' problem behavior in the school constituted the first gate. A risk group derived from this first gate was then assessed again by means of the parents' telephone report of conduct problems at home. The risk group derived from this second gate was subsequently assessed by means of the most expensive screening, an interview with the child and parents about family-management practices. Results show that each successive gate improved the percentage of valid positives, from 24.5% to 56.3%. The three gates produced error rates of 43.8% false positives and 5.8% false negatives. The screening device correctly classified 86% of the recidivists. The average self-reported delinquency of the youths in the risk group was found to be significantly higher than that in the nonrisk group, suggesting the eventual predictive validity of the screening procedure. The multiple-gating procedure classified delinquent and nondelinquent youths as well as an optimal single-stage screening procedure; furthermore, the multiple-gating procedure was 58% less expensive.
Gender, Peer Group Experiences, and Seriousness of Delinquency
Authors: MORASH MERRY
Published: March 2007

The degree to which gender effects on both aggressive and property delinquency are mediated by peer group experiences is examined with data on 588 adolescents in two types of urban communities. The data best support an explanation in which gender has its major effect on the type of peer group to which an adolescent belongs. More specifically, girls belong to less delinquent groups, and this is a salient factor in accounting for their lower levels of delinquency. The findings point to the need to delineate specific gender differences that lead girls to be in less delinquent groups, and in so doing to reorient research on the etiology of delinquency to an examination of the individual predispositions and the environmental circumstances that result in youths joining peer groups that are supportive of illegal behavior.
The Severity of Preaddiction Criminal Behavior among Urban, Male Narcotic Addicts and Two Nonaddicted Control Groups
Authors: NURCO DAVID N. , KINLOCK TIMOTHY , BALTER MITCHELL B.
Published: March 2007

This study compared cross-sectional and longitudinal changes in the severity of criminal behavior from ages 11 through 14 among three groups of urban males: narcotic addicts and two distinctly different control groups. One never-addicted control group (peer controls) were selected from peers who were associates of the addicts at age 11. A second never-addicted control group (community controls) was drawn from age-11 male residents of the community at large who were not associates of the addicts. Results indicated clear differences in the criminal behavior patterns of the three subject groups, with addicts reporting the greatest, and community controls the least, involvement in crime in early adolescence at all levels of severity. In addition, within the addict sample, involvement in crime at each severity level was inversely related to age at onset of narcotic addiction. Further, the addicts, regardless of age of onset, are distinguished from controls by noteworthy increases in the proportions of subjects involved in crime, especially at the highest severity level. The implications of the findings for future research and early intervention are discussed.
Juvenile Victimization: Convergent Validation of Alternative Measurements
Authors: WELLS L. EDWARD , RANKIN JOSEPH H.
Published: March 2007

Surveys of crime victims provide a valuable supplement to official record measures of serious crime, enabling a more complete picture of street crime levels and a more dynamic view of crime as interactions between offenders and victims. Initiated in 1973, the National Crime Survey (now called the National Crime Victimization Survey [NCVS]) provides a systematic, reliable, national assessment of crime and constitutes the preferred source of data for many analytic purposes. However, this article suggests that the NCVS is not equally reliable for all types of victims and offenses. The authors compare the NCVS profile of youthful victimization with comparable patterns of events from two other national data sets (the National Youth Survey and Monitoring the Future) that focus specifically on juveniles and their experiences. These comparisons indicate that young persons are less reliably represented in the NCVS due to such factors as sampling frame of the survey, form of the questionnaire interview, and wording of questions.
Social Order and Disorder of Street Blocks and Neighborhoods: Ecology, Microecology, and the Systemic Model of Social Disorganization
Authors: TAYLOR RALPH B.
Published: March 2007

Bursik and Grasmick's recently reformulated, ecologically oriented systemic model of neighborhood disorder explicitly recognizes three levels of informal social control: private (family and close friends), parochial (based on nearby acquaintances), and public (between neighborhoods and external agents and agencies). Recent research suggests that the model deserves further articulation at the parochial level. The author proposes developing the parochial level of informal social control in the following three ways: by recognizing within-neighborhood variations in informal social control and responses to disorder; by acknowledging the central importance of street blocks as durable features of the everyday environment connecting residents to broader ecological dynamics in their neighborhood; and by developing microecological principles, analogous to human ecological principles, to help us understand connections between street block and community-level ecological dynamics. The proposed perspective links ecological and community psychological perspectives with social disorganization processes to clarify spatial and temporal variations in the collective psychogeography of resident-based control.
Assessing the Effects of School-Based Drug Education: A Six-Year Multilevel Analysis of Project D.A.R.E.
Authors: ROSENBAUM DENNIS P. , HANSON GORDON S.
Published: March 2007

A randomized longitudinal field experiment was conducted to estimate the short- and long-term effects of the Drug Abuse Resistance Education program (D.A.R.E.) on students' attitudes, beliefs, social skills, and drug use behaviors. Students from urban, suburban, and rural schools (N = 1,798) were followed for more than six years, with surveys administered each year from 6th through 12th grades. Teachers were also surveyed annually to measure students' cumulative exposure to supplemental (post-D.A.R.E.) drug education. Multilevel analyses (random-effects ordinal regression) were conducted on seven waves of posttreatment data. The results indicate that D.A.R.E. had no long-term effects on a wide range of drug use measures, nor did it show a lasting impact on hypothesized mediating variables, with one exception. Previously documented short-term effects had dissipated by the conclusion of the study. Some D.A.R.E.-by-community interactions were observed: Urban and rural students showed some benefits, whereas suburban students experienced small but significant increases in drug use after participation in D.A.R.E.
Bridging Practices
Authors: Ball Deborah Loewenberg
Published: March 2007

Subject matter and pedagogy have been peculiarly and persistently divided in the conceptualization and curriculum of teacher education and learning to teach. This fragmentation of practice leaves teachers on their own with the challenge of integrating subject matter knowledge and pedagogy in the contexts of their work. Yet, being able to do this is fundamental to engaging in the core tasks of teaching, and it is critical to being able to teach all students well. This article proposes three problems that would have to be solved to bridge this gap and to prepare teachers who not only know content but can make use of it to help all students learn. The first problem concerns identifying the content knowledge that matters for teaching, the second regards understanding how such knowledge needs to be held, and the third centers on what it takes to learn to use such knowledge in practice.