Evolution of Vegetation Coverage in the Jinan Section of the Basin of the Yellow River (China), 2008–2022: Spatial Dynamics and Drivers
Authors: Ma Dongling , Lin Zhenxin , Wang Qian , Yu Yifan , Huang Qingji , Yan Yingwei 
Published: December 2024

The Yellow River Basin serves as a critical ecological barrier in China. However, it has increasingly faced severe ecological and environmental challenges, with soil erosion and overgrazing being particularly prominent issues. As an important region in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, the Jinan section of the Yellow River Basin is similarly affected by these problems, posing significant threats to the stability and sustainability of its ecosystems. To scientifically identify areas severely impacted by soil erosion and systematically quantify the effects of climate change on vegetation coverage within the Yellow River Basin, this study focuses on the Jinan section. By analyzing the spatio-temporal evolution patterns of the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), this research aims to explore the driving mechanisms behind these changes and further predict the future spatial distribution of NDVI, providing theoretical support and practical guidance for regional ecological conservation and sustainable development. This study employed the slope trend analysis method to examine the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of NDVI in the Jinan section of the Yellow River Basin from 2008 to 2022 and utilized the FLUS model to predict the spatial distribution of NDVI in 2025. The Optimal Parameters-based Geographical Detector (OPGD) model was applied to systematically analyze the impacts of four key driving factors—precipitation (PRE), temperature (TEM), population density (POP), and gross domestic product (GDP) on vegetation coverage. Finally, correlation and lag effect analyses were conducted to investigate the relationships between NDVI and TEM as well as NDVI and PRE. The research results indicate the following: (1) from 2008 to 2022, the NDVI values during the growing season in the Jinan section of the Yellow River Basin exhibited a significant increasing trend. This growth suggests a continuous improvement in regional vegetation coverage, likely influenced by the combined effects of natural and anthropogenic factors. (2) The FLUS model predicts that, by 2025, the proportion of high-density NDVI areas will rise to 55.35%, reflecting the potential for further optimization of vegetation coverage under appropriate management. (3) POP had a particularly significant impact on vegetation coverage, and its interaction with TEM, PRE, and GDP generated an amplified combined effect, indicating the dominant role of the synergy between socioeconomic and climatic factors in regional vegetation dynamics. (4) NDVI exhibited a significant positive correlation with both temperature and precipitation, further demonstrating that climatic conditions were key drivers of vegetation coverage changes. (5) In urban areas, NDVI showed a certain time lag in response to changes in precipitation and temperature, whereas this lag effect was not significant in suburban and mountainous areas, highlighting the regulatory role of human activities and land use patterns on vegetation dynamics in different regions. These findings not only reveal the driving mechanisms and influencing factors behind vegetation coverage changes but also provide critical data support for ecological protection and economic development planning in the Yellow River Basin, contributing to the coordinated advancement of ecological environment construction and economic growth.