bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
On the evaluation of debris flows dynamics by means of mathematical models
Authors: Arattano M. , Franzi L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The prediction of debris flow dynamic characteristics in a debris flow prone torrent is generally made through the investigation of past events. This investigation can be carried out through a survey of the marks left by past debris flows along the channel and through a detailed analysis of the type and shape of the deposits found on the debris fan. The rheological behaviour of future debris flows can then be inferred from the results of these surveys and their dynamic characteristics can be estimated applying well known formulas proposed in literature. These latter will make use of the assumptions on the rheological behaviour previously made. This type of estimation has been performed for a debris flow occurred in an instrumented basin, on the North-Eastern Italian Alps, in 1996 and the results have been compared to those obtained by means of a mathematical simulation. For the calibration of the mathematical model the limnographs recorded by three different ultrasonic gauges installed along a torrent reach on the fan were used. The comparison evidenced the importance of time data recordings for a correct prediction of the debris flows dynamics. Without the availability of data recordings, the application of formulas based only on assumptions derived from field analysis could be misleading.
Slope instability in the Bastardo Basin (Umbria, Central Italy) – The landslide of Barattano
Authors: Cencetti C. , Conversini P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Bastardo Basin is one of the classics Apenninic intermontane basins of central Italy. They are en-closed tectonic basins (graben and semigraben) with high anthropization, but with high vulnerability, too (seismic, hydrogeological and geomorphological). The paper concerns some aspects about slope instability in the Bastardo Basin as part of a wider research, which aims to actually define the characteristics of the liability to landslides of the Apenninic intermontane basins. In particular lithological, stratigraphical and hydrogeological conditions are analysed under which a landslide near village of Barattano has developed. This mass movement, at different times, produced partial or total occlusion of the torrent Puglia. Here geognostic investigations together with laboratory tests and subsequent monitoring of landslide area were carried out.  A back analysis, based on limit equilibrium solutions for the factor of safety of the slope, provided the residual strenght properties of the soil mass along the sliding surface.   The landslide of Barattano is representative of a very frequent situation (in terms of type, factors and causes of the movement, possible development of the movement) not only within Bastardo Basin, but in general within Apenninic intermontane basins, too.  The study of landslide and the design of appropriate remedial measures are of great importance in terms of prevention and mitigation of geologic-hydraulic risk in Apenninic intermontane basins.
Flood history in the karst environment of Castellana-Grotte (Apulia, southern Italy)
Authors: Parise M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Karst environments are characterized by peculiar hydrologic features, and in particular by a very limited, if not absent, surface hydrography. Water tends to infiltrate rapidly underground through the complex network of fractures and karstic conduits in the rock mass. However, on the occasion of concentrated rainfall, as well as in case of prolonged precipitation, such network might not be able to allow flowing of large amounts of water, which causes the occurrence of floods. This contribution illustrates the flood history in a classical karst area of Southern Italy, the town of Castellana-Grotte, in Apulia. The oldest part of the town lies at the bottom of a karst valley, which was hit by many flood events in the last centuries. More than twenty of these are here documented, starting from critical analysis of existing publications and documents, integrated with additional historical researches. Aimed at reconstructing the flood history at Castellana-Grotte, the best-documented events are described, together with the main factors, which played a role in distribution and gravity of the related damage. Eventually some engineering works realized during the first decades of the last century, in order to avoid further damage on the occasion of catastrophic floods, are also described.
Neutron flux variations near the Earth’s crust. A possible tectonic activity detection
Authors: Kuzhevskij B. M. , Nechaev O. Yu. , Sigaeva E. A. , Zakharov V. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The present work contains some results of observations of neutron flux variations near the Earth’s surface. The Earth’s crust is determined to be a significant source of thermal and slow neutrons, originated from the interaction between the nuclei of the elements of the Earth’s crust and the atmosphere and α-particles, produced by decay of radioactive gases (Radon, Thoron and Actinon). In turn, variations of radioactive gases exhalation is connected with geodynamical processes in the Earth’s crust, including tectonic activity. This determined relation between the processes in the Earth’s crust and neutrons’ flux allow to use variations of thermal and slow neutrons’ flux in order to observe increasing tectonic activity and to develop methods for short-term prediction of natural hazards.
Regional-scale GIS-models for assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: evaluation and application in the Swiss Alps
Authors: Huggel C. , Kääb A. , Haeberli W. , Krummenacher B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Debris flows triggered by glacier lake outbursts have repeatedly caused disasters in various high-mountain regions of the world. Accelerated change of glacial and periglacial environments due to atmospheric warming and increased anthropogenic development in most of these areas raise the need for an adequate hazard assessment and corresponding modelling. The purpose of this paper is to pro-vide a modelling approach which takes into account the current evolution of the glacial environment and satisfies a robust first-order assessment of hazards from glacier-lake outbursts. Two topography-based GIS-models simulating debris flows related to outbursts from glacier lakes are presented and applied for two lake outburst events in the southern Swiss Alps. The models are based on information about glacier lakes derived from remote sensing data, and on digital elevation models (DEM). Hydrological flow routing is used to simulate the debris flow resulting from the lake outburst. Thereby, a multiple- and a single-flow-direction approach are applied. Debris-flow propagation is given in probability-related values indicating the hazard potential of a certain location. The debris flow runout distance is calculated on the basis of empirical data on average slope trajectory. The results show that the multiple-flow-direction approach generally yields a more detailed propagation. The single-flow-direction approach, however, is more robust against DEM artifacts and, hence, more suited for process automation. The model is tested with three differently generated DEMs (including aero-photogrammetry- and satellite image-derived). Potential application of the respective DEMs is discussed with a special focus on satellite-derived DEMs for use in remote high-mountain areas.
Strong earthquakes can be predicted: a multidisciplinary method for strong earthquake prediction
Authors: Li J. Z. , Bai Z. Q. , Chen W. S. , Xia Y. Q. , Liu Y. R. , Ren Z. Q.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The imminent prediction on a group of strong earthquakes that occurred in Xinjiang, China in April 1997 is introduced in detail. The prediction was made on the basis of comprehensive analyses on the results obtained by multiple innovative methods including measurements of crustal stress, observation of infrasonic wave in an ultra low frequency range, and recording of abnormal behavior of certain animals. Other successful examples of prediction are also enumerated. The statistics shows that above 40% of 20 total predictions jointly presented by J. Z. Li, Z. Q. Ren and others since 1995 can be regarded as effective. With the above methods, precursors of almost every strong earthquake around the world that occurred in recent years were recorded in our laboratory. However, the physical mechanisms of the observed precursors are yet impossible to explain at this stage.
Discrimination of hot versus cold avalanche deposits: Implications for hazard assessment at Mount Meager, B.C.
Authors: Stewart M. L. , Russell J. K. , Hickson C. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The surficial deposits surrounding the Mount Meager volcanic complex include numerous avalanche deposits. These deposits share many attributes: (a) they are nearly monolithologic and comprise mainly intermediate volcanic rock clasts, (b) they lack internal structure, and (c) they are very poorly sorted. Despite these similarities, the avalanche deposits represent two distinct processes. Mass wasting of the Mount Meager volcanic edifice has produced cold rock avalanche deposits, whereas gravitational collapse of active lava domes and flows has produced hot block and ash avalanche deposits. The ability to discriminate between these "hot" and "cold" avalanche deposits is a critical component in the assessment of hazards in volcanic terranes. Hot block and ash avalanche deposits can be distinguished by the presence of radially-oriented joints, breadcrust textures, and incipient welding, which are features indicative of high emplacement temperatures. Conversely, rock avalanche deposits resulting from mass wasting events may be distinguished by the presence of clasts that preserve pre-depositional weathering and jointing surfaces. Volcanic avalanches are mechanically similar to rock avalanches but pose a greater hazard due to high temperatures, increased fluidization from degassing and the potential to decouple highly mobile elutriated ash clouds. The increasing use of hazardous regions such as the Lillooet River valley requires more reliable risk assessment in order to minimize losses from future hazardous events.
Surface latent heat flux as an earthquake precursor
Authors: Dey S. , Singh R. P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The analysis of surface latent heat flux (SLHF) from the epicentral regions of five recent earthquakes that occurred in close proximity to the oceans has been found to show anomalous behavior. The maximum increase of SLHF is found 2–7 days prior to the main earthquake event. This increase is likely due to an ocean-land-atmosphere interaction. The increase of SLHF prior to the main earthquake event is attributed to the increase in infrared thermal (IR) temperature in the epicentral and surrounding region. The anomalous increase in SLHF shows great potential in providing early warning of a disastrous earthquake, provided that there is a better understanding of the background noise due to the tides and monsoon in surface latent heat flux. Efforts have been made to understand the level of background noise in the epicentral regions of the five earthquakes considered in the present paper. A comparison of SLHF from the epicentral regions over the coastal earthquakes and the earthquakes that occurred far away from the coast has been made and it has been found that the anomalous behavior of SLHF prior to the main earthquake event is only associated with the coastal earthquakes.
Regional seismic hazard for Revithoussa, Greece: an earthquake early warning Shield and selection of alert signals
Authors: Xu Y. , Burton P. W. , Tselentis G.-A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The feasibility of an earthquake early warning Shield in Greece is being explored as a European demonstration project. This will be the first early warning system in Europe. The island of Revithoussa is a liquid natural gas storage facility near Athens from which a pipeline runs to a gas distribution centre in Athens. The Shield is being centred on these facilities. The purpose here is to analyze seismicity and seismic hazard in relation to the Shield centre and the remote sensor sites in the Shield network, eventually to help characterize the hazard levels, seismic signals and ground vibration levels that might be observed or create an alert situation at a station. Thus this paper mainly gives estimation of local seismic hazard in the regional working area of Revithoussa by studying extreme peak ground acceleration (PGA) and magnitudes. Within the Shield region, the most important zone to be detected is WNW from the Shield centre and is at a relatively short distance (50 km or less), the Gulf of Corinth (active normal faults) region. This is the critical zone for early warning of strong ground shaking. A second key region of seismicity is at an intermediate distance (100 km or more) from the centre, the Hellenic seismic zone south or southeast from Peloponnisos. A third region to be detected would be the northeastern region from the centre and is at a relatively long distance (about 150 km), Lemnos Island and neighboring region. Several parameters are estimated to characterize the seismicity and hazard. These include: the 50-year PGA with 90% probability of not being exceeded (pnbe) using Theodulidis & Papazachos strong motion attenuation for Greece, PGANTP; the 50-year magnitude and also at the 90% pnbe, M50 and MP50, respectively. There are also estimates of the earthquake that is most likely to be felt at a damaging intensity level, these are the most perceptible earthquakes at intensities VI, VII and VIII with magnitudes MVI, MVII and MVIII. Example results (from many) include the corresponding parameters describing the hazard for Revithoussa as follows: PGANTP: 203 cm s- 2 , M50: 6.5, Mp50: 6.9, MVI: 5.8, MVII: 6.1 and MVIII: 6.4. These data are also useful in selecting expected alert-signals i.e. examples of strong ground vibration histories that might be expected at a Shield station in the alert situation.
A stochastic marked point process model for earthquakes
Authors: Holden L. , Sannan S. , Bungum H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A simplified stochastic model for earthquake occurrence focusing on the spatio-temporal interactions between earthquakes is presented. The model is a marked point process model in which each earthquake is represented by its magnitude and coordinates in space and time. The model incorporates the occurrence of aftershocks as well as the build-up and subsequent release of strain. The parameters of the model are estimated from a maximum likelihood calculation.
Hazard assessment of debris flows for Leung King Estateof Hong Kong by incorporating GIS with numericalsimulations
Authors: Chau K. T. , Lo K. H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. As over seventy percent of the land of Hong Kong is mountainous, rainfall-induced debris flows are not uncommon in Hong Kong. The objective of this study is to incorporate numerical simulations of debris flows with GIS to identify potential debris flow hazard areas. To illustrate this approach, the proposed methodology is applied to Leung King Estate in Tuen Mun. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the terrain and the potential debris-flow sources were generated by using GIS to provide the required terrain and flow source data for the numerical simulations. A theoretical model by Takahashi et al. (1992) improved by incorporating a new erosion initiation criterion was used for simulating the runout distances of debris flows. The well-documented 1990 Tsing Shan debris flow, which occurred not too far from Leung King Estate, was used to calibrate most of the flow parameters needed for computer simulations. Based on the simulation results, a potential hazard zone was identified and presented by using GIS. Our proposed hazard map was thus determined by flow dynamics and a deposition mechanism through computer simulations without using any so- called expert opinions, which are bounded to be subjective and biased.
Integration of spatial and temporal data for the definition of different landslide hazard scenarios in the area north of Lisbon (Portugal)
Authors: Zêzere J. L. , Reis E. , Garcia R. , Oliveira S. , Rodrigues M. L. , Vieira G. , Ferreira A. B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A general methodology for the probabilistic evaluation of landslide hazard is applied, taking in account both the landslide susceptibility and the instability triggering factors, mainly rainfall. The method is applied in the Fanhões-Trancão test site (north of Lisbon, Portugal) where 100 shallow translational slides were mapped and integrated into a GIS database. For the landslide susceptibility assessment it is assumed that future landslides can be predicted by statistical relationships between past landslides and the spatial data set of the predisposing factors (slope angle, slope aspect, transversal slope profile, lithology, superficial deposits, geomorphology, and land use). Susceptibility is evaluated using algorithms based on statistical/probabilistic analysis (Bayesian model) over unique-condition terrain units in a raster basis. The landslide susceptibility map is prepared by sorting all pixels according to the pixel susceptibility value in descending order. In order to validate the results of the susceptibility ana- lysis, the landslide data set is divided in two parts, using a temporal criterion. The first subset is used for obtaining a prediction image and the second subset is compared with the prediction results for validation. The obtained prediction-rate curve is used for the quantitative interpretation of the initial susceptibility map. Landslides in the study area are triggered by rainfall. The integration of triggering information in hazard assessment includes (i) the definition of thresholds of rainfall (quantity-duration) responsible for past landslide events; (ii) the calculation of the relevant return periods; (iii) the assumption that the same rainfall patterns (quantity/duration) which produced slope instability in the past will produce the same effects in the future (i.e. same types of landslides and same total affected area). The landslide hazard is present as the probability of each pixel to be affected by a slope movement, and results from the coupling between the susceptibility map, the prediction-rate curve, and the return periods of critical rainfall events, on a scenario basis. Using this methodology, different hazard scenarios were assessed, corresponding to different rain paths with different return periods.
Two dimensional modelling of flood flows and suspended sedimenttransport: the case of the Brenta River, Veneto (Italy)
Authors: Martini P. , Carniello L. , Avanzi C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The paper presents a numerical model for the simulation of flood waves and suspended sediment transport in a lowland river basin of North Eastern Italy. The two dimensional depth integrated momentum and continuity equations are modified to take into account the bottom irregularities that strongly affect the hydrodynamics in partially dry areas, as for example, in the first stages of an inundation process or in tidal flow. The set of equations are solved with a standard Galerkin finite element method using a semi-implicit numerical scheme where the effects of both the small channel network and the regulation devices on the flood wave propagation are accounted for. Transport of suspended sediment and bed evolution are coupled with the hydrodynamics using an appropriate form of the advection-dispersion equation and Exner's equation. Applications to a case study are presented in which the effects of extreme flooding on the Brenta River (Italy) are examined. Urban and rural flood risk areas are identified and the effects of a alleviating action based on a diversion channel flowing into Venice Lagoon are simulated. The results show that this solution strongly reduces the flood risk in the downstream areas and can provide an important source of sediment for the Venice Lagoon. Finally, preliminary results of the sediment dispersion due to currents and waves in the Venice Lagoon are presented.
The mean frequency of recurrence of in-time-multidimensional events for drought analyses
Authors: González J. , Valdés J. B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Droughts are related with prolonged periods when moisture is significantly below normal values. Drought indices attempt to scale the main drought features to facilitate comparisons. Numerous indices are found in the literature based on different drought features. Many of them were created for particular places and specific objectives, and therefore not suitable to generalize the results. However, there have been attempts to develop a general index, which would provide full characterization of drought events. Two of the most well known are the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Each one has particular advantages and disadvantages. Still neither of them or any other includes a full representation of droughts in a single value index, being useful for all general application. The fact that droughts have a random nature prescribes the statistical theory for the foundation of a complete and generic index, which would meet this goal. In this work, a procedure that allows a complete statistical characterization of drought events is presented. Droughts are characterized, from a statistical point of view, based both on the deviation from a normal regime and persistence. The events are represented as multivariate ones, whose dimensionality depends on the duration. Equal duration events are discriminated through their deviations from normality. The mean frequency of recurrence (MFR) is theoretically derived for such multivariate events, and it is used to scale such deviations. Therefore, events with different dimensionalities can be compared on a common dimension of interest, the MFR. This may be used as a drought index for drought characterization, both for analyzing historical events and monitoring current conditions. It may also be applied to analyze precipitation, streamflows and other hydroclimatic records. Its statistical nature and its general conception support its universality. Results may be applied not only to drought analysis, but also to analyze other random natural hazards. Applications of the procedure for drought analysis in Texas (USA) and in Gibraltar (Iberian Peninsula) are made and compared with PDSI and SPI results. The MFR applied over drought analysis allows the representation of the main drought characteristics in a single value, based on the statistical feature of the phenomenon, and scaled on the mean frequency of recurrence.
Simulation of earthquake caused building damages for the development of fast reconnaissance techniques
Authors: Schweier C. , Markus M. , Steinle E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Catastrophic events like strong earthquakes can cause big losses in life and economic values. An increase in the efficiency of reconnaissance techniques could help to reduce the losses in life as many victims die after and not during the event. A basic prerequisite to improve the rescue teams' work is an improved planning of the measures. This can only be done on the basis of reliable and detailed information about the actual situation in the affected regions. Therefore, a bundle of projects at Karlsruhe university aim at the development of a tool for fast information retrieval after strong earthquakes. The focus is on urban areas as the most losses occur there. In this paper the approach for a damage analysis of buildings will be presented. It consists of an automatic methodology to model buildings in three dimensions, a comparison of pre- and post-event models to detect changes and a subsequent classification of the changes into damage types. The process is based on information extraction from airborne laserscanning data, i.e. digital surface models (DSM) acquired through scanning of an area with pulsed laser light. To date, there are no laserscanning derived DSMs available to the authors that were taken of areas that suffered damages from earthquakes. Therefore, it was necessary to simulate such data for the development of the damage detection methodology. In this paper two different methodologies used for simulating the data will be presented. The first method is to create CAD models of undamaged buildings based on their construction plans and alter them artificially in such a way as if they had suffered serious damage. Then, a laserscanning data set is simulated based on these models which can be compared with real laserscanning data acquired of the buildings (in intact state). The other approach is to use measurements of actual damaged buildings and simulate their intact state. It is possible to model the geometrical structure of these damaged buildings based on digital photography taken after the event by evaluating the images with photogrammetrical methods. The intact state of the buildings is simulated based on on-site investigations, and finally laserscanning data are simulated for both states.
Probabilistic high-resolution forecast of heavy precipitation over Central Europe
Authors: Marsigli C. , Montani A. , Nerozzi F. , Paccagnella T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The limited-area ensemble prediction system COSMO-LEPS has been running operationally at ECMWF since November 2002. Five runs of the non-hydrostatic limited-area model Lokal Modell (LM) are available every day, nested on five selected members of three consecutive 12-h lagged ECMWF global ensembles. The limited-area ensemble forecasts range up to 120h and LM-based probabilistic products are disseminated to several national weather services. COSMO-LEPS has been constructed in order to have a probabilistic system with high resolution, focussing the attention on extreme events in regions with complex orography. In this paper, the performance of COSMO-LEPS for a heavy precipitation event that affected Central Europe in August 2002 has been examined. At the 4-day forecast range, the probability maps indicate the possibility of the overcoming of high precipitation thresholds (up to 150mm/24h) over the region actually affected by the flood. Furthermore, one out of the five ensemble members predicts 4 days ahead a precipitation structure very similar to the observed one.
Analysis of an intense bora event in the Adriatic area
Authors: Cesini D. , Morelli S. , Parmiggiani F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Numerical simulations of a bora event, recently occurred in the Adriatic area, are presented. Two reference runs at different horizontal resolution (about 20km and 8km) describe the case. Initial conditions for the atmospheric model integration are obtained from ECMWF analyses. Satellite data are used for comparisons. A further run at horizontal resolution of 8km, using initial satellite sea surface temperatures, is performed to evaluate their impact on the low level wind over the Adriatic Sea. All the simulations are carried out with 50 layers in the vertical. Numerous aspects of the simulations are found to be in agreement with the understanding as well as the observational knowledge of bora distinctive characteristics. Satellite data and model results indicate that a more realistic simulation of the bora wind over the sea is achieved using the model with 8km horizontal resolution and that the low level wind in this case is sensitive, though weakly, to the difference between the used sea surface temperature fields. Simulation results also show that both wind intensity and the area around wind peaks tend to increase when relatively higher sea surface temperatures are used.
Probabilistic seismic hazard maps from seismicity patterns analysis: the Iberian Peninsula case
Authors: Jiménez A. , Posadas A. M. , Hirata T. , García J. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Earthquake prediction is a main topic in Seismology. Here, the goal is to know the correlation between the seismicity at a certain place at a given time with the seismicity at the same place, but at a following interval of time. There are no ways for exact predictions, but one can wonder about the causality relations between the seismic characteristics at a given time interval and another in a region. In this paper, a new approach to this kind of studies is presented. Tools which include cellular automata theory and Shannon's entropy are used. First, the catalogue is divided into time intervals, and the region into cells. The activity or inactivity of each cell at a certain time is described using an energy criterion; thus a pattern which evolves over time is given. The aim is to find the rules of the stochastic cellular automaton which best fits the evolution of the pattern. The neighborhood utilized is the cross template (CT). A grid search is made to choose the best model, being the mutual information between the different times the function to be maximized. This function depends on the size of the cells β on and the interval of time τ which is considered for studying the activity of a cell. With these β and τ, a set of probabilities which characterizes the evolution rules is calculated, giving a probabilistic approach to the spatiotemporal evolution of the region. The sample catalogue for the Iberian Peninsula covers since 1970 till 2001. The results point out that the seismic activity must be deduced not only from the past activity at the same region but also from its surrounding activity. The time and spatial highest interaction for the catalogue used are of around 3.3 years and 290x165 km2, respectively; if a cell is inactive, it will continue inactive with a high probability; an active cell has around the 60% probability of continuing active in the future. The Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Map obtained marks the main seismic active areas (northwestern Africa) were the real seismicity has been occurred after the date of the data set studied. Also, the Hurst exponent has been studied. The value calculated is 0.48±0.02, which means that the process is inherently unpredictable. This result can be related to the incapacity of the cellular automaton obtained of predicting sudden changes.
On the reliability of the geomagnetic quake as a short time earthquake's precursor for the Sofia region
Authors: Mavrodiev S. Cht.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The local "when" for earthquake prediction is based on the connection between geomagnetic "quakes" and the next incoming minimum or maximum of tidal gravitational potential. The probability time window for the predicted earthquake is for the tidal minimum approximately ±1 day and for the maximum ±2 days. The preliminary statistic estimation on the basis of distribution of the time difference between occurred and predicted earthquakes for the period 2002-2003 for the Sofia region is given. The possibility for creating a local "when, where" earthquake research and prediction NETWORK is based on the accurate monitoring of the electromagnetic field with special space and time scales under, on and over the Earth's surface. The periodically upgraded information from seismic hazard maps and other standard geodetic information, as well as other precursory information, is essential.
A unified approach of catastrophic events
Authors: Nikolopoulos S. , Kapiris P. , Karamanos K. , Eftaxias K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Although there is an accumulated charge of theoretical, computational, and numerical work, like catastrophe theory, bifurcation theory, stochastic and deterministic chaos theory, there is an important feeling that these matters do not completely cover the physics of real catastrophic events. Recent studies have suggested that a large variety of complex processes, including earthquakes, heartbeats, and neuronal dynamics, exhibits statistical similarities. Here we are studying in terms of complexity and non linear techniques whether isomorphic signatures emerged indicating the transition from the normal state to the both geological and biological shocks. In the last 15 years, the study of Complex Systems has emerged as a recognized field in its own right, although a good definition of what a complex system is, actually is eluded. A basic reason for our interest in complexity is the striking similarity in behaviour close to irreversible phase transitions among systems that are otherwise quite different in nature. It is by now recognized that the pre-seismic electromagnetic time-series contain valuable information about the earthquake preparation process, which cannot be extracted without the use of important computational power, probably in connection with computer Algebra techniques. This paper presents an analysis, the aim of which is to indicate the approach of the global instability in the pre-focal area. Non-linear characteristics are studied by applying two techniques, namely the Correlation Dimension Estimation and the Approximate Entropy. These two non-linear techniques present coherent conclusions, and could cooperate with an independent fractal spectral analysis to provide a detection concerning the emergence of the nucleation phase of the impending catastrophic event. In the context of similar mathematical background, it would be interesting to augment this description of pre-seismic electromagnetic anomalies in order to cover biological crises, namely, epileptic seizure and heart failure.
Climatological aspects of the extreme European rainfall of August 2002 and a trajectory method for estimating the associated evaporative source regions
Authors: James P. , Stohl A. , Spichtinger N. , Eckhardt S. , Forster C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. During the first half of August 2002, a sequence of extreme precipitation episodes affected many regions of central and southern Europe, culminating in one of the most severe flooding events ever experienced along sections of the river Elbe and its tributaries. In this paper, the synoptic meteorological situation during the primary flooding event, 11-13 August 2002, and its recent background is illustrated and discussed. Then, backward trajectory modelling of water vapour transport is employed to determine the sources and transport pathways of the moisture which rained out during the event. The Lagrangian trajectory model FLEXTRA is used together with high resolution operational meteorological analyses from the ECMWF to track a very large number of trajectories, initialized in a dense three-dimensional grid array over the extreme rainfall region. Specific humidity changes along each trajectory are mapped out to yield source-receptor relationships between evaporation and subsequent precipitation for the event. Regions of significant surface evaporation of moisture which later rained out were determined to be parts of the Aegean and Ligurian Seas during the initial stages of the event, while strong evaporation from eastern European land surfaces and from the Black Sea became dominant later on. The method also provides precipitation estimates based solely on specific humidity changes along Lagrangian airmass trajectories, which can be compared to ECMWF model forecast precipitation estimates.
Sinkhole genesis and evolution in Apulia, and their interrelations with the anthropogenic environment
Authors: Delle Rose M. , Federico A. , Parise M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Sinkhole development occurs in many areas of the world where soluble rocks crop out. Sinkholes are generally the surface expression of the presence of caves and other groundwater flow conduits in carbonate rocks, which are solutionally enlarged secondary permeability features. Their formation may be either natural or caused by man's activities. In both cases, heavy consequences have to be registered on the anthropogenic environment and related infrastructures. Knowledge of the mechanism of formation of this subtle geohazard is therefore necessary to planners and decision makers for performing the most appropriate and suitable programs of land use and development. The Apulia region of southern Italy is characterized for most of its extension by carbonate rocks, which makes it one of the most remarkable example of karst in the Mediterranean Basin. Based on analysis of literature and in situ surveys, including caving explorations, we have identified in Apulia three main types of possible mechanisms for sinkhole formation: 1) collapse of a chamber in a natural cave or in man-made cavities; 2) slow and gradual enlargement of doline through dissolution; 3) settlement and internal erosion of filling deposits of pre-existing dolines. Since sinkhole formation very often affects directly the human settlements in Apulia, and have recently produced severe damage, some considerations are eventually presented as regards the interrelationships between sinkholes and the anthropogenic environment.
Lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling as governing mechanism for preseismic short-term events in atmosphere and ionosphere
Authors: Molchanov O. , Fedorov E. , Schekotov A. , Gordeev E. , Chebrov V. , Surkov V. , Rozhnoi A. , Andreevsky S. , Iudin D. , Yunga S. , Lutikov A. , Hayakawa M. , Biagi P. F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We present a general concept of mechanisms of preseismic phenomena in the atmosphere and ionosphere. After short review of observational results we conclude: 1. Upward migration of fluid substrate matter (bubble) can lead to ousting of the hot water/gas near the ground surface and cause an earthquake (EQ) itself in the strength-weakened area; 2. Thus, time and place of the bubble appearance could be random values, but EQ, geochemistry anomaly and foreshocks (seismic, SA and ULF electromagnetic ones) are casually connected; 3. Atmospheric perturbation of temperature and density could follow preseismic hot water/gas release resulting in generation of atmospheric gravity waves (AGW) with periods in a range of 6–60min; 4. Seismo-induced AGW could lead to modification of the ionospheric turbulence and to the change of over-horizon radio-wave propagation in the atmosphere, perturbation of LF waves in the lower ionosphere and ULF emission depression at the ground.
Interpretation of the microwave non-thermal radiation of the Moon during impact events
Authors: Grimalsky V. , Berezhnoy A. , Kotsarenko A. , Makarets N. , Koshevaya S. , Pérez Enríquez R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The results of recent observations of the non-thermal electromagnetic (EM) emission at wavelengths of 2.5cm, 13cm, and 21cm are summarized. After strong impacts of meteorites or spacecrafts (Lunar Prospector) with the Moon's surface, the radio emissions in various frequency ranges were recorded. The most distinctive phenomenon is the appearance of quasi-periodic oscillations with amplitudes of 3–10K during several hours. The mechanism concerning the EM emission from a propagating crack within a piezoactive dielectric medium is considered. The impact may cause the global acoustic oscillations of the Moon. These oscillations lead to the crackening of the Moon's surface. The propagation of a crack within a piezoactive medium is accompanied by the excitation of an alternative current source. It is revealed that the source of the EM emission is the effective transient magnetization that appears in the case of a moving crack in piezoelectrics. The moving crack creates additional non-stationary local mechanical stresses around the apex of the crack, which generate the non-stationary electromagnetic field. For the cracks with a length of 0.1–1µm, the maximum of the EM emission may be in the 1–10GHz range.
Automated sliding susceptibility mapping of rock slopes
Authors: Günther A. , Carstensen A. , Pohl W.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We present a suite of extensions for ARCVIEW GIS™ (ESRI) that allows to map the spatial distribution of first-order mechanical slope-properties in hard rock terrain, e.g. for large slope areas like water reservoir slopes. Besides digital elevation data, this expert-system includes regional continuous grid-based data on geological structures that might act as potential sliding or cutoff planes for rockslides. The system allows rapid automated mapping of geometrical and kinematical slope properties in hard rock, providing the basis for spatially distributed deterministic sliding-susceptibility evaluations on a pixel base. Changing hydrostatic slope conditions and rock mechanical parameters can be implemented and used for simple predictive static stability calculations. Application is demonstrated for a study area in the Harz Mts., Germany.
Modelling expected physical impacts and human casualties from explosive volcanic eruptions
Authors: Spence R. J. S. , Kelman I. , Calogero E. , Toyos G. , Baxter P. J. , Komorowski J.-C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A multi-hazard, multi-vulnerability impact model has been developed for application to European volcanoes that could significantly damage human settlements. This impact model is based on volcanological analyses of the potential hazards and hazard intensities coupled with engineering analyses of the vulnerability to these hazards of residential buildings in four European locations threatened by explosive volcanic eruptions. For a given case study site, inputs to the model are population data, building characteristics, volcano scenarios as a series of hazard intensities, and scenarios such as the time of eruption or the percentage of the population which has been evacuated. Outputs are the rates of fatalities, seriously injured casualties, and destroyed buildings for a given scenario. These results are displayed in a GIS, thereby presenting risk maps which are easy to use for presenting to public officials, the media, and the public. Technical limitations of the model are discussed and future planned developments are considered. This work contributes to the EU-funded project EXPLORIS (Explosive Eruption Risk and Decision Support for EU Populations Threatened by Volcanoes, EVR1-2001-00047).
Seismically active area monitoring by robust TIR satellite techniques: a sensitivity analysis on low magnitude earthquakes in Greece and Turkey
Authors: Corrado R. , Caputo R. , Filizzola C. , Pergola N. , Pietrapertosa C. , Tramutoli V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Space-time TIR anomalies, observed from months to weeks before earthquake occurrence, have been suggested by several authors as pre-seismic signals. Up to now, such a claimed connection of TIR emission with seismic activity has been considered with some caution by scientific community mainly for the insufficiency of the validation data-sets and the scarce importance attached by those authors to other causes (e.g. meteorological) that, rather than seismic activity, could be responsible for the observed TIR signal fluctuations. A robust satellite data analysis technique (RAT) has been recently proposed which, thanks to a well-founded definition of TIR anomaly, seems to be able to identify anomalous space-time TIR signal transients even in very variable observational (satellite view angle, land topography and coverage, etc.) and natural (e.g. meteorological) conditions. Its possible application to satellite TIR surveys in seismically active regions has been already tested in the case of several earthquakes (Irpinia: 23 November 1980, Athens: 7 September 1999, Izmit: 17 August 1999) of magnitude higher than 5.5 by using a validation/confutation approach, devoted to verify the presence/absence of anomalous space-time TIR transients in the presence/absence of seismic activity. In these cases, a magnitude threshold (generally M<5) was arbitrarily chosen in order to identify seismically unperturbed periods for confutation purposes. In this work, 9 medium-low magnitude (4<Mb<5.5) earthquakes which occurred in Greece and Turkey have been analyzed in order to verify if, even in these cases, anomalous TIR transients can be observed. The analysis, which was performed using 8 years of Meteosat TIR observations, demonstrated that anomalous TIR transients can be observed even in the presence of medium-low magnitude earthquakes (4<Mb<5.5). As far as the research (just started) of possible correlation among TIR anomalies and earthquake occurrence is concerned, such a result suggests that: a) in order to identify seismically unperturbed periods for confutation purposes, a magnitude threshold (at least) lower than 4 should be used; b) the proposed validation/confutation approach should be applied in low-seismicity areas in order to find suitably long seismically quiescent periods.
Analysis of the potential contamination risk of groundwater resources circulating in areas with anthropogenic activities
Authors: Spizzico M. , Lopez N. , Sciannamblo D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The area investigated is located in the province of Brindisi (Italy). It is a generally flat area separated from the nearby carbonatic plateau of the Murgia by quite indistinct and high fault scarps. As regards the geological features, carbonatic basement rocks and post-cretaceous terrains made up of calabrian calcarenites and middle-upper Pleistocenic marine terraced deposits can be distinguished. In the examined area there are two different hydrogeological environments. The first is represented by deep groundwater, the main groundwater resource in Apulia. The second hydrogeological environment, now of lesser importance than the deep aquifer in terms of size and use, is made up of some small shallow groundwater systems situated in post-calabrian sands and located in the eastern area. During some sampling cycles carried out in the studied area, water was withdrawn from both the deep aquifer and from the shallow groundwater. For every sample, the necessary parameters were determined for the physical and chemical characterisation of two different hydrogeological environments. Moreover, some chemical parameters indicating anthropogenic activities were determined. Analysis of the aerial distribution of the measured parameters has shown some main areas subject to different conditions of contamination risk, in accordance with the hydrogeological and geological features of the investigated area. In the south-eastern part of the investigated area, the important action performed by the surface aquifer for protecting the deep groundwater from contamination of anthropogenic origin is clear. On the other hand, in the shallow groundwater, areas of nitrate and nitrite contamination have been identified, which result from the extensive use of fertilizers.