bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
FALSE CONSCIOUSNESS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS: OR IS IT IN IVORY TOWERS?
Authors: Schnytzer Adi , Westreich Sara
Published: August 2020

In general, models in finance assume that investors are risk averse. An example of such a recent model is the pioneering work of Aumann and Serrano, which presents an economic index of riskiness of gambles which is independent of wealth and holds (as might be understood from the adjective “economic”) for exclusively risk averse investors. In their paper, they discuss gambles with positive expected returns which will be accepted or rejected by agents which different levels of risk aversion. The question never asked by the authors (and in most of the finance literature) is: Who is offering these attractive gambles? To arrive at an answer, we extend the Aumann-Serrano risk index in such a way that it accommodates gambles with either positive or negative expectations and is thus suitable for both the risk averse and risk lovers.  Once we allow for the existence of risk lovers, it may be shown that in financial markets, many gambles with negative expectations are taken either knowingly or unknowingly so that there are always people that act as if they are risk lovers. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of the implications of our result, in particular that gambling is by no means restricted to the casino or the track.
MEASURING THE EXTENT OF INSIDE TRADING IN HORSE BETTING MARKETS
Authors: Schnytzer Adi , Lamers Martien , Makropoulou Vasiliki
Published: August 2020

This paper develops a theoretical framework for and models optimal price setting by on-course bookmakers in the racetrack betting market. This framework suggests that opening prices should include a premium that compensates bookmakers for the risk that insiders will account for private information and exploit any mis-pricing made by the bookmakers. The model is an extension of the model developed by Makropoulou and Markellos (2007) for football betting to the racetrack betting market. Using an extensive dataset and performing Monte Carlo simulations to calculate the potential value of new information, we measure insider trading in the Australian racetrack betting market.
APPLICATIONS OF AN SPRT-LIKE TEST IN PARI-MUTUEL WAGERING
Authors: Porth Lisa , Rosenbloom Earl
Published: August 2020

Pari-mutuel wagering functions as a very simple financial market, and has therefore been important in studying market efficiency.  In this study, an SPRT-like test reveals that probabilities from the win pool corrected for the favourite longshot bias using Asch and Quandt’s regression equation can be used to exploit the exacta pool, and probabilities obtained from the exacta pool can be used to exploit the win pool.  These finding differ from previously published studies that maintain that the win pool is largely efficient.  Further, these findings mirror statistical arbitrage strategies utilized by hedge funds, where pricing inefficiencies are exploited between related assets.
HOME BIAS AND INTERNATIONAL BETTING MARKETS: CAN INSTITUTIONAL CONSTRAINTS AND BEHAVIORAL BIASES LEAD TO ARBITRAGE PROFITS?
Authors: Chincarini Ludwig , Contreras Christina
Published: August 2020

The international sports betting markets are becoming more global, but there is still a large concentration of local bettors in gambling markets of individual countries. Home loyalty and other patterns of human behavior might lead to odds for international competitions being different in different countries with less favorable odds being quoted in the home country; the home bias effect. In this paper we explain the logic of this phenomena and examine a small data set to show the existence of the bias in three different sports: tennis, golf, and European football. We also suggest ideas for a more thorough investigation of the home bias phenomenon.
ESTIMATING SOCCER RESULTS IN THE ISRAELI LEAGUE
Authors: Ben-David Nissim , Evyatar Ben David
Published: August 2020

In this paper, we suggest a method that uses past soccer tournament results to estimate the probabilities for the various possible scores of soccer game matches.Given forecasted probabilities, we try to have the best guess for bets concerning the results in the Israeli league. We applied the method for estimating the probabilities of wining, losing or ending in a tie for any possible future match amongst the sixteen premier Israeli league teams. The method we suggest may be used for sport bets for decreasing cost while improving the probability of success.
FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE THE LEVEL OF PROBLEM GAMBLING: A MACAO CASE
Authors: Cheung Millissa
Published: August 2020

This study has two purposes. First, we aim to identify the demography factors, namely gender, marital status, educational level, age, monthly income, and cognitive factor, namely casino-related job and emotional intelligence are predictive of problem gambling. Second, we propose and test whether perceived control of time over work moderates the relationship between emotional intelligence and level of problem gambling. Data are randomly collected from 310 respondents in Macao. Results of logistic regression showed that respondents who are male, married, have a low educational level, low emotional intelligence, high monthly income, and have a casino-related job have a higher tendency of becoming problem gamblers. In addition, results of moderated regression indicated that the negative relationship between emotional intelligence and level of problem gambling is found more negative when the employees’ perceived control of time over work is low. The implications of the findings are discussed.
IS THE SOCCER BETTING MARKET EFFICIENT? A CROSS-COUNTRY INVESTIGATION USING THE FIBONACCI STRATEGY
Authors: Demir Ender , Danis Hakan , Rigoni Ugo
Published: August 2020

The sports betting industry is one of the fastest growing industries in the world and therefore the literature on sports betting has gained momentum in the last two decades. The literature mainly focuses on testing the efficiency of the sports betting market. The prediction of game outcomes or comparing the odds of bookmakers by predicted odds and the search for betting strategies which yield significant positive returns have been the core of the market efficiency tests. This study, instead of making any predictions or generating odds to be compared by bookmakers’ odds, implements the Fibonacci sequence on draws as a betting rule for 8 European soccer leagues for the seasons from 2005/2006 to 2008/2009. As the odds offered by bookmakers are narrowly distributed, implementing the Fibonacci strategy for 8 soccer leagues of Europe for 4 seasons yields positive return for all cases and also controlling with simulated data the strategy is found to be in most circumstances profitable. The results indicate that the bookmakers are inefficient in terms of predicting the draws and the soccer betting markets are inefficient. Therefore, the betters could exploit this inefficiency by following Fibonacci strategy assuming they have enough financial liquidity. Furthermore, we calculate the capital needed to pursue the strategy resorting to the Value at Risk (VaR) methodology and reveal that the VaR is only 143€ (assuming that the first bet is 1€) at 95% confidence level.
MEASURING AND FORECASTING FAN INTEREST IN NFL FOOTBALL GAMES
Authors: Paul Rodney J , Wachsman Yoav , Weinbach Andrew
Published: August 2020

This study examines the relationship between NFL game characteristics and the frequency of fan ratings on the NFL’s website (www.NFL.com).  The margin of victory and overall total points scored in a game are shown to be significant determinants of the number of times individual games are rated; suggesting fans enjoy close and high-scoring games.  While the actual game characteristics are only known for certain after the game is played, information provided by betting markets show similar predictive power in estimating the number of times a game is rated.  Given that betting market data is generated prior to the start of the game, these relationships may allow for improvements in pre-game forecasting of television, or other media, audiences for live sporting events.
DOES JET LAG CREATE A PROFITABLE OPPORTUNITY FOR NFL BETTORS?
Authors: Fodor Andy
Published: August 2020

Traveling across multiple time zones, especially from east-to-west so that hours are “lost”, has documented negative effects on athletic performance. Nichols (2012) finds mixed evidence that sports betting markets fail to account for these effects. We reconsider, for the 2005-2010 NFL regular seasons, the “jet lag” hypothesis with more direct methods. We find that closing lines of NFL contests are set irrationally such that the jet lag effect is not appreciated. More importantly, we are the first to document that betting against potential jet lag teams proves to be markedly profitable. This profitability is statistically significant, which is a standard very rarely encountered throughout the literature. Consistent with our conjectures, we find these results to be even stronger when only afternoon games are kept in the sample and when division games are omitted from the sample.
RISK ASSESSMENT OF PROGRESSIVE CASINO GAMES
Authors: Quigley John , Revie Matthew
Published: August 2020

This paper presents an investigation into the properties of a stochastic process whereby the value of a fund grows arithmetically and decays geometrically over discrete time periods. While this general structure is applicable to many situations, it is particularly prevalent in many casino games. This investigation was motivated by a request for support by a casino operator.  Statistical models were developed to identify optimal decisions relating to the casino game concerning setting the initial jackpot, the probability of winning each prize, and the size of the prizes. It is demonstrated that all moments of the process converge asymptotically and the limiting distribution is not Normal.  Closed form expressions are provided for the first moment as well as investigate the quality of approximating the distribution with an Edgeworth Expansion. The case that motivated this initial investigation is presented and discussed.
Raising the Stakes: More Electronic Gaming Machines equals how many more problem gamblers?
Authors: Holmes Scott , Holmes Kathryn , Sargent Mark
Published: August 2020

In the administration of the New South Wales Gaming Machines Act 2001, a small ‘industry’ developed around the preparation and appraisal of Social Impact Assessments (SIAs) required to accompany any application for additional Electronic Gaming Machines (EGMs) in clubs or hotels. The two-tiered structure permitted a simple process, known as Class 1, for small-increase applications. However the more complex Class 2 process required for larger applications was slow, costly and contentious. One of the key points of contention in this process was assessing the extent of problem gambling impacts that might be associated with a localised increase in EGMs, ordinarily expressed as an estimate of the increase in problem gamblers. As a consequence of this inefficient process, subsequent legislation sought to eliminate these contested aspects. This paper examines the available evidence on this policy approach and its effectiveness, focusing on the specific aspect of estimating incremental impacts arising from regulatory decisions, which serve to demonstrate the shortcomings of the system. The evidence presented extends to the application of a mathematical model developed for assessing outcomes in the SIA process. This model has some value as a tool in assessing regulatory outcomes in situations where marginal changes can alter externalised impacts.
RESTRICTING ACCESS: SELF-EXCLUSION AS A GAMBLING HARM MINIMISATION MEASURE IN GREAT BRITAIN
Authors: Parke Jonathan , Parke Adrian , Harris Andrew , Rigbye Jane , Blaszczynski Alex
Published: August 2020

The purpose of this review was to examine the academic literature regarding self-exclusion as a form of harm minimisation in gambling and consider views from gambling operators and treatment providers. The extant literature was limited in that most studies were completed more than five ago; related specifically to a particular product or jurisdiction; relied on weak research designs and drew from self-selected samples. There were however some consistent findings indicating that in order to improve effectiveness, self-exclusion protocols should be: actively yet strategically promoted; quick and simple to implement; administered by attentive, well-trained staff; attracting sufficient investment in resources and technology to improve enforcement; and comprehensive rather than isolated in coverage (where feasible). Programmes should also be subject to robust evaluation and regulatory expectations should be detailed and specific rather than open to interpretation and general. Further scoping of the feasibility of multi-operator self-exclusion schemes (MOSES) was identified as a priority for future work.
RESPONSIBLE MARKETING AND ADVERTISING IN GAMBLING: A CRITICAL REVIEW
Authors: Parke Adrian , Harris Andrew , Parke Jonathan , Rigbye Jane , Blaszczynski Alex
Published: August 2020

Marketing and advertising play a significant role in the adoption of attitudes and societal norms, which have been shown to have a direct impact on behavioural intentions, ultimately leading to behavioural execution. Concurrent with other attempts to inform policy strategy with respect to harm minimisation in gambling there is a paucity of evidence pertaining to the impact that gambling advertising has on gambling behaviour, gambling-related harm, and the efficacy of advertising regulations to minimise harm. There appears to be an overwhelming portrayal of gambling as a normative, legitimate social activity, at the expense of highlighting the potential risks involved. Furthermore, new marketing techniques utilising the social media platform are able to instil emotive and positive attitudes towards gambling brands and products, as well as enabling consumers to widely share and recommend gambling products across their online community, sometimes exposing under-age and vulnerable populations to gambling. The following paper critically reviews existing research investigating the impact of current gambling advertising and marketing campaigns on both vulnerable (i.e. adolescents and problem gamblers) and normal adult populations, looking specifically at the impact of exposure, the positive framing of gambling, and the transparency of marketing techniques. It is concluded that marketing and advertising in gambling needs to facilitate more informed choice for consumers, and a more balanced approach in the framing of gambling. It is suggested that risk information is presented asynchronously to gambling promotions, as opposed to being delivered as peripheral information, and moreover future strategies need to be based on robust empirical evidence demonstrating the impact of responsible gambling advertising and marketing on behaviour.
MOTIVATION, PERSONALITY TYPE AND THE CHOICE BETWEEN SKILL AND LUCK GAMBLING PRODUCTS
Authors: Gandolfo Alessandro , De Bonis Valeria
Published: August 2020

We analyze differences in gambling motivations for skill and luck gamblerson the basis of a questionnaire distributed to students from the University of Pisa (Italy). We find that the probability of playing skill rather than luck games is positively correlated to being a male, to the socialization motive and to having a planning attitude, that we use to define the kind of amusement experienced in gambling, while it is negatively correlated to the money motive, the perceived risk of losing social esteem, and age. Results are then applied to marketing strategies and public policies, with particular attention to the online environment.
EXAMINING THE IMPACT OF CASINOS ON ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: A SPATIAL ANALYSIS OF THE COUNTIES IN THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
Authors: Economopoulos Andrew James
Published: August 2020

Few have formally evaluated the economic impact of casinos, and yet most agree that it is crucial in estimating the net benefit to society.  A new casino investment should stimulate economic activity in the immediate region, but its operations could potentially reduce employment and incomes with in the industry. Grinols outlines the factors that could lead to positive or negative growth from the investment, but what is critical to the empirical validation of the investment is the definition of region.   Since data is geographically limited to political boundaries, it is necessary to employ a spatial methodology that captures the impact beyond the political boundary. The Spatial Durbin Model (SDM) is outline.  The SDM captures both the local impacts and spillovers in the region and it can also identify if the casino competes or complements within their sectors.   Income per capita and employment measurements for the county and the retail sector were examined. The evidence indicates that casinos raises per capita income in urban areas, but lowers per capita income in rural areas, while employment has significant gains in private employment, total employment, and retail employment.  The gains in both income and employment erode overtime.
The numerics of Premium Bonds
Authors: Tasche Dirk
Published: August 2020

Premium Bonds sold by the UK National Savings and Investments (NS&I) agency are the possibly most popular example of lottery bonds. Premium Bonds holders renounce interest payments but instead participate in a lottery which distributes the equivalent of aggregate interest payments among them. While the random mechanism used in the lottery is well-documented the details of how to determine the probability distribution of a single bond holder's lottery prizes seem to be less well-known. We observe that the lottery prizes distribution is a multivariate hypergeometric distribution and discuss how to exactly calculate its probability masses as well as how to approximate the distribution by means of the Panjer recursion and Fourier transforms. We find that there are good reasons to prefer the approximations based on Panjer recursionor Fourier transforms to exact calculation of the lottery prize value distribution.
Bankroll management in large poker tournaments
Authors: Lantz Björn
Published: August 2020

This study focuses on bankroll management, defined as the process of determining the right fraction of the bankroll one should put at risk in a particular advantageous situation, examined in a poker tournament context. The aim of the study is to conduct a theoretical analysis of bankroll management based on the Kelly criterion in a typical large poker tournament, using the actual World Series of Poker Main Event payout table as an example of such tournaments. A main conclusion of this paper is that a long-term profitable poker player’s expected return on investment in tournaments (i.e., the level of advantage) does not provide sufficient information to obtain an optimal bankroll management policy for the player. The level of advantage is obviously an important factor, but the player’s strategic approach to the game, that is, if the player primarily tries to avoid finishing the tournament without a payout or if the player primarily tries to finish in the very top of the ranking, is also very important to consider.
Electrospinning Technique as a Powerful Tool for the Design of Superhydrophobic Surfaces
Authors: J. Rivero Pedro , Vicente Adrian , J. Rodriguez Rafael
Published: August 2020

The development of surface engineering techniques to tune-up the composition, structure, and function of materials surfaces is a permanent challenge for the scientific community. In this chapter, the electrospinning process is proposed as a versatile technique for the development of highly hydrophobic or even superhydrophobic surfaces. Electrospinning makes possible the fabrication of nanostructured ultra-thin fibers, denoted as electrospun nanofibers (ENFs), from a wide range of polymeric materials that can be deposited on any type of surface with arbitrary geometry. In addition, by tuning the deposition parameters (mostly applied voltage, flow rate, and distance between collector/needle) in combination with the chemical structure of the polymeric precursor (functional groups with hydrophobic behavior) and its resultant viscosity, it is possible to obtain nanofibers with highly porous surface. As a result, functionalized surfaces with water-repellent behavior can be implemented in a wide variety of industrial applications such as in corrosion resistance, high efficient water-oil separation, surgical meshes in biomedical applications, or even in energy systems for long-term efficiency of dye-sensitized solar cells, among others.
Measuring the Blind Holes: Three-Dimensional Imaging of through Silicon via Using High Aspect Ratio AFM Probe
Authors: Akhtar Imtisal , Abdul Rehman Malik , Seo Yongho
Published: August 2020

Three-dimensional integration and stacking of semiconductor devices with high density, its compactness, miniaturization and vertical 3D stacking of nanoscale devices highlighted many challenging problems in the 3D parameter’s such as CD (critical dimension) measurement, depth measurement of via holes, internal morphology of through silicon via (TSV), etc. Current challenge in the high-density 3D semiconductor devices is to measure the depth of through silicon via (TSV) without destructing the sample; TSVs are used in 3D stacking devices to connect the wafers stacked vertically to reduce the wiring delay, power dissipation, and of course, the form factor in the integration system. Special probes and algorithms have been designed to measure 3D parameters like wall roughness, sidewall angle, but these are only limited to deep trench-like structures and cannot be applied to structures like via holes and protrusions. To address these problems, we have proposed an algorithm based nondestructive 3D Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM). Using the high aspect ratio (5, 10, 20, 25) multiwall carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) AFM probe, the depth of holes up to 1 micron is faithfully obtained. In addition to this, internal topography, side walls, and location of via holes are obtained faithfully. This atomic force microscopy technique enables to 3D scan the features (of any shape) present above and below the surface.
A Practical Framework for Probabilistic Analysis of Embankment Dams
Authors: Guo Xiangfeng , Dias Daniel
Published: August 2020

Uncertainties, such as soil parameters variability, are often encountered in embankment dams. Probabilistic analyses can rationally account for these uncertainties and further provide complementary information (e.g., failure probability and mean/variance of a model response) than deterministic analyses. This chapter introduces a practical framework, based on surrogate modeling, for efficiently performing probabilistic analyses. An active learning process is used in the surrogate model construction. Two assessment stages are included in this framework by respectively using random variables (RV) and random fields (RF) for the soil variability modeling. In the first stage, a surrogate model is coupled with three probabilistic methods in the RV context for the purpose of providing a variety of useful results with an acceptable computational effort. Then, the soil spatial variability is considered by introducing RFs in the second stage that enables a further verification on the structure reliability. The introduced framework is applied to an embankment dam stability problem. The obtained results are validated by a comparison with direct Monte Carlo Simulations, which also allows to highlight the efficiency of the employed methods.
ANFIS TVA Power Plants Availability Modeling Development
Authors: Qamber Isa , Al-Hamad Mohamed
Published: August 2020

In the present chapter, the evaluation of the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) Markov model transient behavior is derived and studied. It is focused on finding the models of the transient-state availability and unavailability of the four (TVA) models among using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS). The developed ANFIS model for the TVA models is derived, and both availability and unavailability of the four TVA models are derived using the curve fitting technique, where each model of the transient availability of the three-state models of the TVA models is found. Each model is considered as a three-state model, and its equations obtained using the curve fitting technique are helping for the future availabilities and unavailabilities. The availability is a very important measure of performance for the availability of TVA power plants. The technique is used and applied on the four models in the present study to formulate and obtain the TVA models’ results and are compared. In addition, the generation effects on the reliability investigation. The generation study evaluates the improvement in reliability over a time.
Current Situation and Future Outlook of Forest Biomass Production and Its Utilization in Japan
Authors: Yoshioka Takuyuki
Published: August 2020

The current situation of forests and forestry as well as woody biomass utilization in Japan was described, and the future outlook for the use of forest biomass in Japan was presented. Many planted forests are now becoming mature, so the operational efficiency in forestry should be improved not only by the development of the forest infrastructure but also by the full mechanization of the logging system. The Kyoto Protocol adopted in 1997 promoted the energy utilization of waste woody biomass such as mill residues and wood-based waste materials, and the launch of the Feed-in Tariff scheme for renewable energy (FIT) in 2012 promoted the energy utilization of once-unutilized thinnings. In order to further expand the production of forest biomass and its utilization for energy, logging residues, small-sized trees, and short rotation woody coppices (SRWC) are promising. Thus, low-cost harvesting technologies should be developed as soon as possible, with reference to machines and systems operating in foreign countries where the utilization of such forest biomass is making steady progress.
Does Celiac Disease Affect Antibody Production Against Hepatitis B in Children?
Authors: Dastmalchi Fatemeh , Najafi Mehri , Rahmani Parisa , Eftekhari Kambiz , Rohani Pejman , Alimadadi Hosein
Published: August 2020

Background: Celiac disease is an immune-mediated systemic disease, in which gluten ingestion causes different symptoms. HLA-DQ2 is positive in 90% - 95% of celiac patients. HLA has been considered to inhibit antibody production against the hepatitis B virus vaccine. Considering that celiac disease affects about 1% of the population, this phenomenon could be a significant factor in immunization programs. On the other hand, HLA-DQ2 positive patients not only are at the risk of HBV infection themselves but also have the potential to be an important source of HBV dissemination in the world. Objectives: This study was carried out to evaluate the responsiveness of celiac-affected children to HBV vaccination in Iran. Methods: This case-control prospective study was performed on 62 Iranian children (31 children with confirmed celiac disease before introducing a gluten-free diet and 31 healthy children). HBS Ab (antibody against hepatitis B virus surface antigen) titer was checked in the patients and compared between the two groups. Results: It was shown that 67.7% of cases and 64.5% of controls had HBS Ab titer above 10 mIU/mL, but the difference was not significant statistically. After matching for the time interval from the last HBV vaccination, it was observed that although non-significantly, celiac disease can decrease the chance for anti-HBS production up to 30%. Conclusions: This study did not confirm non-responsiveness against the HBV vaccine in celiac disease in children. This may be due to genetic factors or type of vaccine. Moreover, in our study, responsiveness was assessed qualitatively in the two groups (HBS Ab > 10 mIU/mL was considered as a responder).
First insights into past biodiversity of giraffes based on mitochondrial sequences from museum specimens
Authors: Petzold Alice , Magnant Anne-Sophie , Edderai David , Chardonnet Bertrand , Rigoulet Jacques , Saint-Jalme Michel , Hassanin Alexandre
Published: August 2020

Intensified exploration of sub-Saharan Africa during the 18th and 19th centuries led to many newly described giraffe subspecies. Several populations described at that time are now extinct, which is problematic for a full understanding of giraffe taxonomy. In this study, we provide mitochondrial sequences for 41 giraffes, including 19 museum specimens of high importance to resolve giraffe taxonomy, such as Zarafa from Sennar and two giraffes from Abyssinia (subspecies camelopardalis), three of the first southern individuals collected by Levaillant and Delalande (subspecies capensis), topotypes of the former subspecies congoensis and cottoni, and giraffes from an extinct population in Senegal. Our phylogeographic analysis shows that no representative of the nominate subspecies camelopardalis was included in previous molecular studies, as Zarafa and two other specimens assigned to this taxon are characterized by a divergent haplogroup, that the former subspecies congoensis and cottoni should be treated as synonyms of antiquorum, and that the subspecies angolensis and capensis should be synonymized with giraffa, whereas the subspecies wardi should be rehabilitated. In addition, we found evidence for the existence of a previously unknown subspecies from Senegal (newly described in this study), which is now extinct. Based on these results, we propose a new classification of giraffes recognizing three species and 10 subspecies. According to our molecular dating estimates, the divergence among these taxa has been promoted by Pleistocene climatic changes resulting in either savannah expansion or the development of hydrographical networks (Zambezi, Nile, Lake Chad, Lake Victoria).
Liver Pathologic Changes After Direct-Acting Antiviral Agent Therapy and Sustained Virologic Response in the Setting of Chronic Hepatitis C Virus Infection
Authors: Celli Romulo , Saffo Saad , Kamili Saleem , Wiese Nicholas , Hayden Tonya , Taddei Tamar , Jain Dhanpat
Published: August 2020

Context.—

Treatment of chronic viral hepatitis C (HCV) infection with direct-acting antiviral agents (DAAs) results in cure, or sustained viral response (SVR), in more than 90% of patients. However, there are subsets of patients who have persistent liver inflammation and fibrosis and develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) despite achieving SVR. A possible reason for these phenomena may be the presence of virus particles in liver tissue but not blood, otherwise defined as occult infection.

Objective.—

To describe liver histologic findings following successful DAA therapy, test HCV RNA by (liver) tissue polymerase chain reaction in treated cases, and identify predictive markers for HCC development in treated cases.

Design.—

A total of 96 identified patients were divided into 4 groups, each differentiated by the presence or absence of SVR and HCC. Groups were compared for several clinicopathologic variables, including degree of inflammation and fibrosis, and the ‘directionality' of fibrosis in cirrhotic livers using the novel progressive-indeterminate-regressive scoring system.

Results.—

Overall, we found a significant decrease in inflammation in SVR patients. None of the patients showed regression of their cirrhosis following treatment. No evidence of occult HCV infection was seen in 40 livers tested, including 21 with HCC. The number of patients who developed HCC was similar in the SVR and non-SVR groups, and increased inflammation and fibrosis were associated with HCC development.

Conclusions.—

Following DAA-SVR there appears to be an overall decrease in inflammation, but the fibrosis tends to persist, at least in the short term (median follow-up of 20.2 months).
Point-of-Care Testing for Sexually Transmitted Infections: A Review of Recent Developments
Authors: Adamson Paul C. , Loeffelholz Michael J. , Klausner Jeffrey D.
Published: August 2020

Context.—

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are among the most common communicable diseases globally and are associated with significant morbidity and mortality worldwide. Point-of-care tests have the potential to revolutionize the prevention and control of STIs by enabling rapid diagnosis and early treatment of infections, thus interrupting transmission and preventing the sequelae of untreated infections. Currently, there are several point-of-care (POC) tests available for the diagnosis of Treponema pallidum, Chlamydia trachomatis, Neisseria gonorrhoeae, and Trichomonas vaginalis infections, although these tests differ with regard to their performance, turnaround time, and cost.

Objective.—

To provide an updated review of the POC tests available and under development for the diagnosis of T pallidum, C trachomatis, N gonorrhoeae, and T vaginalis infections, to discuss the context for which these tests might be used, and to highlight future directions for test development.

Data Sources.—

We reviewed the literature pertaining to the recent development and performance evaluations of POC tests for the diagnosis of syphilis, chlamydia, gonorrhea, and trichomonas.

Conclusions.—

Recently, there has been rapid development of new POC tests for STIs. Although there are inexpensive, rapid, and accurate POC tests available for syphilis, there are few such tests available for the diagnosis of chlamydia, gonorrhea, or trichomonas, and currently none with the ability to detect antimicrobial resistance in N gonorrhoeae. Research evaluating implementation strategies for the currently available tests and the development of additional POC tests that are rapid, accurate, and affordable are urgently needed to address the rising number of STIs worldwide.
Análisis cartográfico del nivel de afectación de los incendios forestales sobre áreas urbanizadas en la Costa del Sol occidental (1991-2013)
Authors: Romero-Padilla José , Martínez Murillo Juan Francisco
Published: August 2020

Este trabajo analiza el grado de variabilidad de la afección de los siniestros de incendios forestales, ocurridos en los municipios de la Costa del Sol occidental (provincia de Málaga), sobre sus áreas urbanizadas e infraestructuras viarias durante el periodo 1991 a 2013. Primero se lleva a cabo un análisis descriptivo de los incendios forestales registrados desde 1987 hasta 2015. Posteriormente, se caracteriza el grado de afección de los incendios forestales sobre áreas urbanas e infraestructuras viarias, a partir de la medición de la cercanía del fuego a las mismas. Los resultados muestran que la Costa del Sol occidental se sitúa como el área más afectada por el fuego en la provincia de Málaga, al mismo nivel de otras regiones españolas, con una importante actividad turística y una expansión desmedida de la superficie urbanizada. Los siniestros analizados adquieren carácter de incendio de interfase urbano-forestal debido a la urbanización intensa y dispersa por su territorio y a la densidad de su red viaria. La cartografía muestra que la población e infraestructuras viarias potencialmente afectadas por el fuego tienen una variabilidad anual muy elevada, aunque cada vez es más frecuente que se vea afectada directa o indirectamente, haciendo necesario la actualización constante de los sistemas de protección a la población.

This study deals with the forest fire affecting the municipalities of Western Costa del Sol (province of Málaga, South of Spain), namely, in the urban areas and the main transportation network from 1991 to 2013. To do this, firstly, a descriptive analysis of the registered forest fires included in the Andalucía Government Map Historic Database from 1987 to 2015. Secondly, the affection distance of fire to urban areas and main roads were determined considering the following intervals: 0, 100, 500 and 1,000 m; 0 metres means fire affected directly. The main results are the following: i) the Western Costal del Sol is the most affected area by the fire in the province of Málaga, as well as at the same level than other Mediterranean regions in Spain; ii) the analysed fires could be classified as wildland-urban interphase fire due to the intense urbanization and dense road network along the Costa del Sol. From the mapping analysis, it can be pointed out population and road network with possibilities of being affected by the fire is high but also very variable in time, making necessary updated protection and surveillance systems.
Four years after the catastrophe, are educational institutions in the Region of Murcia in Spain prepared for the next seismic disaster?
Authors: Mendizabal Sophie
Published: August 2020

Un terremoto de magnitud 6.0 o más está esperado en la falla Alhama de Murcia, la más activa de la región de Murcia, localizada en el sureste de España. El 11 de Mayo de 2011, en un intervalo de una hora y 42 minutos, dos terremotos de magnitud 4.5 y 5.1 sacuden las ciudades deLorca y Totana, resultando en nueve fatalidades y 330 heridos. Sin embargo, cuatro años después de la catástrofe, estas ciudades no parecen estar preparadas a hacer frente a un terremoto de magnitud moderada. Todos los factores están combinados para terminar en una catástrofe es decir, una superficie geomorfológica que favorece los efectos de sitio, construcciones que no cumplen con las normas parasísmicas y la falta de conocimiento sobre el riesgo sísmico por parte de la población. Este estudio propone unanálisis del nivel de vulnerabilidad de los centros educacionales contra el riesgo sísmico en Lorca y Totana basado en la creación de un índice de vulnerabilidad considerando los factores de riesgo sociales y estructurales. Además propone una serie de medidas de mitigación para hacer frenteal próximo desastre sísmico mayor.

A magnitude 6.0 or more earthquake is expected on the Alhama de Murcia fault, the most active in the area of Murcia, located in the south-eastern Spain. On May 11th 2011, within one hour and 42 minutes period, a magnitude 4.5 and a magnitude 5.1 earthquakes shake the towns of Lorca and Totana, killing nine people and injuring 330. However, four years after the catastrophe, these towns do not seem to be prepared to face a moderate earthquake. All elements are gathered to result in a disaster, i.e. a surface geomorphology conducive for site effects, constructions which do not comply the earthquake-resistant requirements and a lack of knowledge from the population about the seismic risk. This report proposes an analysis of the level of vulnerability of educational institutions against the seismic risk in Lorca and Totana based on creating a vulnerability index which considers social and structural risk factors. As well as a series of mitigation measures proposals to face the next major seismic disaster.
Machine learning based approach for predicting of higher heating values of solid fuels using proximity and ultimate analysis
Authors: ELMAZ Furkan , YÜCEL Özgün , MUTLU Ali Yener
Published: August 2020

Prediction of higher heating value (HHV) using
proximity and ultimate analysis is an important procedure for understanding the
characteristic attribute of a fuel. 
Researches put effort to come up with equations to explain the
relationship between the HHV value and those analyses. But conducted methods
usually included only simple statistical analysis, thus they were partially
effective to use in a practical manner. In this paper we approach this
prediction problem from the machine learning perspective, we employ four
machine learning methods, i.e. linear regression, polynomial regression,
decision tree regression and support vector regression to predict HHV using
proximity and ultimate analysis of different type of materials. Data set used
is collected from literature and is categorized, where the resulting categories
are used as features to be fed to the machine learning models to create
prediction models as accurate as possible. Performances of the proposed methods
are evaluated with k-fold cross-validation technique and each method’s pros and
cons are discussed for both prediction accuracy and computational complexity.
Modern understanding of legal policy
Authors: Khasanov Danis Rifkatovich
Published: August 2020

This article is dedicated to the theoretical understanding of the problem of ambiguity of the concept of “legal policy” as a complicated phenomenon that has a substantial number of attributes, which connect it with multiple occurrences within the legal sphere of social life and outside it; as well as overcoming such ambiguity through analyzing the diversity of characteristics of legal policy presented in the definitions of modern authors , and formation of the unified definition on their basis that would serve as methodological framework for the research of legal policy in all branches of juridical science. Research methodology includes the general scientific methods, such as analysis, synthesis, comparison, generalization, classification, and systemic approach. The author analyzes different points of view of the Russian scholars on formation of the concept of legal policy; describes their specific features; makes an attempt of their systematization. The conclusion is made on the presence of two different types of approaches towards determination of the content of legal policy. The author highlights most substantial characteristic suitable for both approaches, and offers an original version of a unified definition of legal policy of the state.
National security and national interests: phenomenological characteristics
Authors: Bidova Bela Bertovna
Published: August 2020

The goal of this article consists in the analysis of phenomenological characteristics and legal correlation of the definitions “national interests” and “national security”. The author highlights doctrinal and conceptual peculiarities of consolidation of national interests in the modern Russian legal system, determines the priorities of establishment of the system of national interests, as well as proposes optimal means for formation of the system of national interests through the integrated model that ensures adequate inclusion of the objectively nationwide interests, creation of mechanisms of their protection and implementation. The efficiency of international legal mechanism of ensuring national interests in Russia on the regional and global scale is being analyzed and assessed. The priorities of international legal cooperation in the context of ensuring national security and protection of national interests are determined. The scientific novelty lies in the statement that sequential analysis of the problems, which emerge in terms of building the system of national security and in the sphere of fulfilling national interests, may significantly affect the theoretical-substantive  and technical-legal aspects of the regulatory-protective activity, establish a closer correlation between the fundamental elements of Russian legal system, including elements of the mechanism of ensuring national security.
Legal acts of the authorities on industry and construction management in the USSR during 1950s – 1960s
Authors: Zhil'nikov Andrei Maksimovich
Published: August 2020

The object of this research is the administrative-economic reform conducted in the Soviet Union in 1957. The subject of this research is the legal acts of the Councils of National Economy. The author meticulously examines the order of passing legal acts by the Councils of National Economy, as well as their policy-making activity. The article provides the analysis of law and draft bills of government authorities of USSR and RSFSR, as well as legal acts of the Councils of National Economy. Classification of the latter by the content and nature of the contained administrative requirements is conducted. In conclusion, it is established that the crucial questions of competency of the Council were usually resolved collectively; however, there was not clear demarcation between the rights of the chair of the Councils of National Economy and the Councils itself. Gaps in policy-making activity with regards to the order of issuance of acts led to unnatural increase in the already significant amount of such acts, which did not make any essential contributions to the work of institutions and enterprises subordinate to the Council of National Economy.
On the peculiarities of the regional lawmaking process
Authors: Fomicheva Olga Anatolevna
Published: August 2020

The subject of this research is practice of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation applied in legal regulation of lawmaking process. Analysis is conducted on legislation of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation regarding the establishment of their rights to realization of the legislative initiative. The author’s arguments on carrying out the analysis of regional legislation with regards to establishment of a circle of subjects with the right of legislative initiative are grounded on the scholars’ opinion that the status of the subject of realization of legislative initiative is special. The fact of recognition of the subject of lawmaking process as a subject of legislative initiative is a juridical fact bot only for acquisition of the right to introduction of a bill, but also guarantees for participation in lawmaking process of the parliament. Therefore, establishment of a circle of subjects with the right of legislative initiative is crucial in determination of peculiarities of the regional lawmaking process. Application of the general scientific methods of analysis and synthesis, allowed arranging the circle of the subjects of lawmaking process into groups, as well as formulate a conclusion on the specificities of setting rules for the lawmaking process realized in constituent entities of the Russian Federation. The philosophical methods of cognition of legal reality allowed determining the general rules of lawmaking process, summarize the acquired data, and comprehensively examine the research materials. Having analyzed the practice of legal regulation, the author identified the flaws in terminology used in practice of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Recommendations are made to pay closer attention to ambiguity of legislation in some regions of the Russian Federation. A conclusion is formulated on the positive experience that can become an example for other constituent entities of the Russian Federation in setting rules for the lawmaking process.