bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Employment and Wage Bargaining in an Open Monetary Union
Authors: Cahuc Pierre , Kempf Hubert
Published: March 2003

This paper studies alternative patterns of wage bargaining in an open two‐country monetary union. Wages are fixed by trade unions for two periods, either at the national or at the monetary union level. It is shown that the best solution with regard to unemployment depends on the nature of externalities and dynamic strategic interactions between the monetary union’s countries; namely on the degree of openness of the monetary union, and the differentiation index between national goods.
Monetary Policy and Built–In Stability
Authors: Lam Jean–Paul , Scarth William
Published: March 2003

Concern about globalization has rekindled interest in a longstanding issue—the implications for macroeconomic stability of alternative monetary/exchange–rate policies. This paper re–examines the issue, and it assesses the robustness of several recommendations by comparing the results of a series of small open–economy macro models. All involve model–consistent exchange–rate expectations and (through the existence of intermediate imports) supply–side effects of exchange–rate changes. The first model is descriptive, while the second and third allow for more thorough–going micro foundations and forward–looking behavior—first on the supply side (with multiperiod overlapping contracts), and then on the demand side (with the Ramsey theory of consumption). To clarify the impact of each change in model specification, they are introduced one at a time, and the same questions are posed at each stage. Two issues are examined—the implications of alternative monetary policies for (i) the effect on output of a one–time (unexpected) change in demand, and (ii) the effect on the amplitude of the business cycle that accompanies an ongoing (anticipated) cycle in demand. Three policies are compared: price–level targeting, wage–rate targeting, and exchange–rate targeting.
Fitting Observed Demographic Rates with the Multiexponential Model Schedule: An Assessment of Two Estimation Programs
Authors: Rogers Andrei , Raymer James
Published: March 2003

The process of finding the best fitting model can often be very time consuming and tedious. Most computer programs are very specialized, and many require initial parameter estimates to fit a particular curve. Those that are most useful are ones that are versatile in applications, and ones that allow inputs of “rough” parameter estimates for finding the optimal ones. This paper focuses on current approaches for fitting observed age‐specific demographic data with the multiexponential model schedule and uses two curve‐fitting computer programs: MODEL and TableCurve2D. These two programs are assessed according to how well, and how simply, they can be used to fit age‐specific fertility, mortality, and migration rates.
Mortgagor Motivations in Prepayments for Adjustable Rate Mortgages
Authors: Ong Seow–Eng , Maxam Clark L. , Thang Doreen Chze–Lin
Published: March 2003

This paper provides the first rigorous analysis of residential adjustable mortgage prepayment using individual ARM mortgage data in Singapore. The prepayment rate for residential mortgages is low and is dominated more by macroeconomic factors than mortgage–specific factors. Specifically, the prepayment rate is increasing in residential property prices, but decreasing in income as proxied by GDP and volatility in mortgage rates. There is weak evidence to suggest that prepayment is increasing in the borrower’s age, mortgage rate hikes, cash–availability variables and sentiments of the stock market, and decreasing in the price premium over valuation, payment–to–income ratio, loan–to–value ratio, loan term and floor level of the property.
The Quest to Digest Jesus: Recent Books on the Historical Jesus
Authors: Goodacre Mark
Published: March 2003

Books reviewed in this article:

Mark Allan Powell, The Jesus Debate: Modern Historians Investigate the Life of Christ

Phillip J. Cunningham, A Believer's Search for the Jesus of History

Clive Marsh and Steve Moyise, Jesus and the Gospels: An Introduction

N. T. Wright and Marcus Borg, The Meaning of Jesus: Two Visions
Wittgensteinian Investigations
Authors: Crowder Colin
Published: March 2003

Book reviewed in this article:

D. Z. Phillips, Recovering Religious Concepts: Closing Epistemic Divides,
Theology and Institutions — A Partisan British Perspective
Authors: Marsh Clive
Published: March 2003

Books reviewed in this article:

Willi Braun and Russell T. McCutcheon, (eds.) Guide to the Study of Religion

J'annine Jobling and Ian Markham, (eds) Theological Liberalism, Creative and Critical
Saving Accounts versus Stocks and Bonds in Household Portfolio Allocation
Authors: Hochguertel Stefan , Alessie Rob , Van Soest Arthur
Published: March 2003

We study the structure of household portfolios of financial wealth by analyzing both the determinants of total financial wealth and the choice between risky (stocks and bonds) and riskfree assets (saving accounts). The econometric specification is a generalized trivariate Tobit model, estimated on a cross section of 3,077 households in the Netherlands in 1988. We account for endogeneity of financial wealth and for selectivity due to nonreporting. Results show that the level of financial wealth and the marginal tax rate are major determinants of the allocation between riskfree and risky assets.
Adjusting Green NNP to Measure Sustainability
Authors: Asheim Geir B.
Published: March 2003

Weitzman provides a foundation for NNP as the stationary equivalent of a wealth‐maximizing path when there is a constant interest rate and no exogenous technological progress. Here, the implications of Weitzman's foundation are explored in a case encountered in resource models, i.e., the case of non‐constant interest rates. In a setting that allows for exogenous technological progress, an expression for NNP is obtained that adjusts Green NNP for anticipated capital gains and interest rate effects to produce a measure that indicates sustainability. This result is important when measuring the relative sustainability of resource rich and resource poor countries.
Education Subsidies, Social Security and Growth: The Implications of a Demographic Shock
Authors: Docquier Frederic , Michel Philippe
Published: March 2003

We develop a three‐period overlapping‐generations model in which individual decisions about education are the engine of growth. In this setting, we investigate the normative role of education subsidies and old age pensions. Calibrating this model on empirical data, it is shown that the case for positive pension benefits is rather weak on the optimal path. An important part of education subsidies should be financed by lump‐sum taxes on retirees. We also examine how these transfers should be adjusted in the presence of a baby boom‐baby bust demographic shock. It turns out that an appropriate policy could be to increase education when the baby‐boom generation is at work. Labor productivity will then be higher when aging peaks so that the pension bill can be financed without reducing welfare for the baby‐bust generations.

JEL classification: O41; J24; E62
Industrial Policy and Firm Heterogeneity
Authors: Barros Pedro P. , Nilssen Tore
Published: March 2003

Our concern in this paper is with firm‐specific industrial policy. When R&D subsidies or taxes are differentiated among firms, the question arises as to which firms in an industry should receive such support. We analyze a situation where firms differ in their R&D technologies in two distinct ways: in the costs of performing R&D activities and in the output obtained from such activities. We find that the optimal firm‐specific industrial policy is affected differently by the two sources of firm heterogeneity. Furthermore, a change in a firm's R&D productivity has an ambiguous effect on the optimal policy towards the firm.

JEL classification: O31; L52; F13
Adverse Selection in the Annuities Market and the Impact of Privatizing Social Security
Authors: Walliser Jan
Published: March 2003

The observation that few Americans purchase life annuities has often been attributed to adverse selection. A still unanswered question is whether observable price increases caused by adverse selection can be generated endogenously in a life cycle model. This paper calibrates a pure life cycle model for a characteristic US cohort and reproduces three stylized facts. Adverse selection increases annuity prices by 7–10 percent; the cost of adverse selection rises with the age of the annuitant; and the cost is smaller for females than for males. Social security privatization could reduce annuity prices by between 2 and 3 percent.
The Political Economy of Social Security
Authors: Casamatta Georges , Cremer Helmuth , Pestieau Pierre
Published: March 2003

We consider a two‐period overlapping generations model in which individual voters differ by age and by productivity. In such a setting, a redistributive pay‐as‐you‐go system is politically sustainable, even when the interest rate is higher than the rate of population growth. The workers with medium wages (not those with the lowest wages) and the retirees form a majority which votes for a positive level of social security. This level depends on the difference between the rates of population growth and interest as well as on the redistributiveness of the benefit rule.
Asymmetric Shocks and Monetary Policy in a Currency Union
Authors: Lane Philip R.
Published: March 2003

We analyze the conduct of monetary policy in a currency union in the face of asymmetric shocks. In particular, we compare the stabilization properties of a currency union versus alternative exchange rate arrangements. The relative performance of a currency union is shown to depend on the extent of economic integration in patterns of consumption and production and on the relative weights placed on price stability versus employment stability in the monetary authority's objective function.

JEL classification: F33; F40
Wage Indexation, Employment and Inflation
Authors: Drudi Francesco , Giordano Raffaela
Published: March 2003

Price versus productivity‐indexing is considered in a model of monetary policy with incomplete information and wage bargaining. In a perfectly price‐indexed economy, the inflationary bias due to lack of credibility is eliminated. However, productivity‐indexing is more appropriate to dampen macroeconomic fluctuations that are caused by real disturbances. We show that productivity‐indexing alone guarantees both price and employment stability, provided the government's reputation is good enough and the union's bargaining power is not too strong. This reduces the degree of price indexation as the union becomes weaker and the government's reputation improves. Productivity‐indexing is desirable with volatile productivity processes and weak unions.

JEL classification: E24; E52
The Law of One Price—A Case Study
Authors: Haskel Jonathan , Wolf Holger
Published: March 2003

We use retail transaction prices for a multinational retailer to examine the extent and permanence of violations of the law of one price. For identical products, we find typical deviations of 20–50 percent, with some evidence for convergence over time. Such differences might be due to differences in local costs. If so, relative prices of similar products (round versus square mirrors) should be equal across countries. In fact, relative prices vary significantly across very similar goods within a product group. The finding suggests that differences in local distribution costs, local taxes, and probably tariffs do not explain the price pattern, leaving strategic pricing or other factors resulting in varying markups as alternative explanations.

JEL classification: F41; L11
Fewer in Number but Harder to Employ: Incidence and Duration of Unemployment in an Economic Upswing
Authors: Hernaes Erik
Published: March 2003

During an upswing in the Norwegian labour market in the early 1990s, inflow to unemployment fell by one‐quarter from October 1991 to October 1993. In contrast, the employment probabilities of the inflow rose much less for males and even decreased for females. A duration analysis showed that the average “employability” of the unemployment inflow declined due to lower previous income, a lower proportion with job experience, a higher proportion with previous unemployment experience, a higher proportion with immigrant background, and a lower proportion on recall. They were fewer in number, but harder to employ.

JEL classification: E32; J64
Is Environmental Dumping Greater when Plants are Footloose?
Authors: Ulph Alistair , Valentini Laura
Published: March 2003

We address concerns that globalisation gives national governments incentives to set weak environmental policies and that these incentives are particularly strong in industries where plants are footloose. Using a simple model of imperfect competition, we compare the environmental policies that would be set by non‐cooperative governments for two different move structures—where governments set environmental policies after firms decide where to locate (market share game) and where governments set environmental policies before firms decide where to locate (location game). We show that the extent of environmental dumping in the market share game can be greater than in the location game.

JEL classification
F1; H4; L5; Q2
Dual‐Route and Connectionist Models: A Step Towards a Combined Model
Authors: Bjaalid Inger‐Kristin , Høien Torleiv , Lundberg Ingvar
Published: March 2003

Current models of word recognition are mainly constructed within the frameworks of either dual‐route or connectionist theories. The most important test of a word recognition model is how it succeeds in accounting for various reading behaviors. In the present paper dual‐route and connectionist word recognition models are briefly described and evaluated. As a further development of these models, a combined framework is proposed. An amalgamation of the two main types of models might give a more satisfactory account of various phenomena within word recognition.
Negative content of thinking in panic disorder and major depression–a self‐report study
Authors: Rosenberg Nicole K. , Jørgensen Kasper , Sevaj Flemming
Published: March 2003

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the character and extent of negative thought content in panic disorder (PD) and the relation between thinking and bodily sensations. Content of thinking was explored in several areas, some of which are not exclusively related to anxiety. A structured diagnostic interview (SCID), a self‐rating scale (SCL‐90R), a sentence construction test (The Incomplete Sentences Blank (ISB)), and an inventory of childhood memories of parental rearing (the EMBU) were administered to 47 PD patients, 15 patients with major depression (MD), and 30 normal subjects. Thus, measures of implicit as well as explicit thinking, measures of thinking on present as well as past issues, and methods allowing negative as well as positive thought content to be expressed, were used. We found that PD was characterized by more negative thinking of anxiogenic, depressive, and dependent nature and less neutral or positive thinking than the normal subjects, primarily in issues related to the present. These negative thoughts were correlated with bodily symptoms. Very few significant differences were found between PD and MD, but a subgroup of PD with comorbidity of MD exceeded the other groups on measures of negative thoughts as well as bodily symptoms.
The effect of social comparison on mathematics self‐concept
Authors: Manger Terje , Eikeland Ole‐Johan
Published: March 2003

Implicit in the frame of reference hypothesis is the assumption that social comparison is one of the causal determinants of self‐concept. The present study of Norwegian sixth‐grade elementary school students showed that students of low‐, medium‐, and high‐achievement classes did not differ in mathematics self‐concept. Mathematics self‐concept was, however, significantly influenced by the students’ within‐class‐room position in mathematics. The results support the frame of reference hypothesis, and the support was consistent over gender.
Memory for words and drawings in children with hemiplegic cerebral palsy
Authors: Carlsson Göran
Published: March 2003

A list‐learning paradigm was used to study learning and memory of verbal and figurative material in children with right versus left‐sided hemiplegic cerebral palsy. Thirty‐one children with right (n=18), or left (n=13) congenital hemiplegia were compared with normal controls (n=19). All children had normal intelligence (IQ>80), and were attending standard schools. The inclusion criteria for the two hemiplegic groups were; no epilepsy, no hearing or visual impairments, and a mild to moderate hemiparesis. The aim of this study was to explore material‐specific (words and drawings) differences in the acquisition, recall and serial position effects in children with an early unilateral brain lesion. The left‐hemisphere impaired (i.e. right hemiplegia) group showed impaired acquisition for drawings, as compared with the normal controls. There was also a material‐specific difference in the serial position effect for all three groups. Learning of words followed the primacy principle, whereas the learning of drawings followed the recency principle. There were no group‐differences in delayed‐recall (i.e. long‐term memory) for either words or drawings. The results are discussed in terms of acquisition and retention of verbal and figurative materials in relation to lesion side and size.
Multidimensional scaling of hierarchical sorting data applied to facial expressions
Authors: Bimler David , Kirkland John
Published: March 2003

A new algorithm for multidimensional scaling analysis of sorting data and hierarchical‐sorting data is tested by applying it to facial expressions of emotion. We construct maps in “facial expression space” for two sets of still photographs: the I‐FEEL series (expressions displayed spontaneously by infants and young children), and a subset of the Lightfoot series (posed expressions, all from one actress). The analysis avoids potential artefacts by fitting a map directly to the subject's judgments, rather than transforming the data into a matrix of estimated dissimilarities as an intermediate step. The results for both stimulus sets display an improvement in the extent to which they agree with existing maps. Some points emerge about the limitations of sorting data and the need for caution when interpreting MDS configurations derived from them.
Effects of alcohol and frustration on experimental graffiti
Authors: Norlander Torsten , Nordmarker Anki , Archer Trevor
Published: March 2003

This study aimed to examine effects between alcohol and frustration in regard to graffiti. Forty‐two subjects, 21 men and 21 women were randomly assigned in equal numbers to each of the three experimental groups, namely a Control group, an Alcohol group, and an Alcohol+Frustration group (alcohol dose: 1 ml 100% alcohol/kg body weight). For the purposes of this experiment, a test (AET) was constructed that provided scores of “scrawling‐graffiti” (i.e., the amount of scrawling on pictures), “destruction”, “aggression”, and “sexuality”. An elaboration test and a test measuring the “dispositional optimism” were also applied. The primary results indicated that (a) the Alcohol+Frustration group scored significantly higher on scrawling‐graffiti compared to the Control group, (b) female subjects performed graffiti‐scrawling to a greater extent than male subjects in all three groups, (c) women scored significantly higher on elaboration as compared to men. These results were interpreted as supporting the hypothesis that alcohol intake by itself is unlikely to induce destructive behavior unless accompanied by a “provocative” factor (e.g. frustration) that precipitates the putative expressions of aggressiveness.
The Role of Movement and Object in Action Memory: A Comparative Study between Blind, Blindfolded and Sighted Subjects
Authors: Kormi‐Nouri Reza
Published: March 2003

Two experiments systematically compared four SPT conditions involving real/imaginary movement and real/imaginary object with one VT condition involving no enactment and no object. To test the effect of visual information on SPT memory, sighted subjects were compared with blindfolded subjects (in Experiment 1) and blind subjects (in Experiment 2). All subjects learned all SPTs and VTs. Free recall data showed no difference between the SPT conditions and between the groups of subjects; only blind subjects were found to be limited in the use of visualization strategy. All SPTs were recalled better than VTs, indicating that the enactment effect is not determined by either movement or object alone, rather both have an effective role and are equally involved for obtaining the enactment effect. The results provide no support for the motor encoding and multimodality views of SPTs, but are in line with the episodic integration view which assumes that neither movement nor object are of special importance, rather both have contribution in the enactment effect.
Development and validation of Swedish classical and modern sexism scales
Authors: Ekehammar Bo , Akrami Nazar , Araya Tadesse
Published: March 2003

In two studies we develop and validate a Classical—overt or direct—and a Modern—covert or subtle—Sexism Scale concerning attitudes toward women, for a Swedish (Scandinavian) context. Further, we examine whether these two forms of prejudice are distinguishable. Confirmatory factor analyses showed that, although highly correlated, classical and modern sexism are distinguishable. The construct validations showed that men had higher means on modern and classical sexism scores than women, and that our scales were related to other constructs as expected. In a third study, we analyzed the knowledge and the content of cultural stereotypes about women. There were no differences in the knowledge of cultural stereotypes between men and women or between high‐ and low‐sexist individuals. The findings are discussed in relation to previous international studies that examine people’s modern and/or classical sexism.
Improving subjective health and reducing absenteeism in a natural work life–intervention
Authors: Saksvik Per Ø. , Nytrø Kjell
Published: March 2003

A natural one–year work–life intervention to improve occupational health and reduce absenteeism was designed as a field experiment. The intervention allowed the employees in the health care sector of a municipality to take up to five days of self–administered sick leave with full financial compensation up to four times a year. 165 employees in the intervention group and 100 employees in the control group filled out a questionnaire before and after the intervention. The result showed no evidence of misuse of this sick–leave option and some positive subjective health effects were found among those who used the option. Slight improvements were found in musculoskeletal problems and for cold/influenza. There were no effects on overall absenteeism. The question of the impact of local cultures on interventions to improve occupational health is also discussed.
Right–left discrimination: Effects of handedness and educational background
Authors: Ofte Sonja H.
Published: March 2003

The present study investigated right–left discrimination, with a paper–and–pen test with cartoon figures. The test consisted of line drawings of a person with no, one, or both arms crossing the vertical axis of the body in the figure. The subjects’ task was to mark with a pencil, as fast as possible, which was the right or left hand in the figure. The line drawings were viewed from the back, from the front, or randomly alternating between the back and front views. Two studies were conducted. The first consisted of 393 adults: 153 males and 240 females; 338 right–handers and 55 left–handers. The results showed that the males performed better than the females. The left–handers and the right–handers performed equally well. However, the left–handed males performed better than the right–handed males. There was no difference in performance between the right–handed and the left–handed females. The second study consisted of 175 right–handed college students: 63 psychology students, 54 medical students, and 58 law students. The main finding was that the medical students performed better than the psychology students for all figure orientation subtests and for all arm positions. In comparison with the law students, the medical students performed at the same level on the back view subtest, but they performed better on the front view subtest and on two out of three arm positions on the alternating view subtest.
Simple Transformation Techniques for Improved Non‐parametric Regression
Authors: Park B. U. , Kim W. C. , Ruppert D. , Jones M. C. , Signorini D. F. , Kohn R.
Published: March 2003

We propose and investigate two new methods for achieving less bias in non‐ parametric regression. We show that the new methods have bias of order h4, where h is a smoothing parameter, in contrast to the basic kernel estimator’s order h2. The methods are conceptually very simple. At the first stage, perform an ordinary non‐parametric regression on {xi, Yi} to obtain m^(xi) (we use local linear fitting). In the first method, at the second stage, repeat the non‐parametric regression but on the transformed dataset {m^(xi, Yi)}, taking the estimator at x to be this second stage estimator at m^(x). In the second, and more appealing, method, again perform non‐parametric regression on {m^(xi, Yi)}, but this time make the kernel weights depend on the original x scale rather than using the m^(x) scale. We concentrate more of our effort in this paper on the latter because of its advantages over the former. Our emphasis is largely theoretical, but we also show that the latter method has practical potential through some simulated examples.
A Non‐parametric Test for Generalized First‐order Autoregressive Models
Authors: Diebolt Jean , Ngatchou Wandji Joseph
Published: March 2003

We derive a non‐parametric test for testing the presence of V(Xi,εi) in the non‐parametric first‐order autoregressive model Xi+1=T(Xi)+V(Xi,εi)+U(Xi)εi+1, where the function T(x) is assumed known. The test is constructed as a functional of a basic process for which we establish a weak invariance principle, under the null hypothesis and under stationarity and mixing assumptions. Bounds for the local and non‐local powers are provided under a condition which ensures that the power tends to one as the sample size tends to infinity.The testing procedure can be applied, e.g. to bilinear models, ARCH models, EXPAR models and to some other uncommon models. Our results confirm the robustness of the test constructed in Ngatchou Wandji (1995) and in Diebolt & Ngatchou Wandji (1995).
Estimation for Continuous Branching Processes
Authors: Overbeck Ludger
Published: March 2003

The maximum‐likelihood estimator for the curved exponential family given by continuous branching processes with immigration is investigated. These processes originated from population biology but also model the dynamics of interest rates and development of the state of technology in economics. It is proved that in contrast to branching processes with discrete space and/or time the MLE gives a unified approach to the inference. In order to include singular subdomains of the parameter space we modify the MLE slightly. Consistency and asymptotic normality for the MLE are considered. Concerning the asymptotic theory of the experiments, all three properties LAQ, LAN, and LAMN occur for different submodels
Semiparametric Regression Smoothing of Non‐linear Time Series
Authors: Gao Jiti
Published: March 2003

In this paper, we consider using a semiparametric regression approach to modelling non‐linear autoregressive time series. Based on a finite series approximation to non‐parametric components, an adaptive selection procedure for the number of summands in the series approximation is proposed. Meanwhile, a large sample study is detailed and a small sample simulation for the Mackey–Glass system is presented to support the large sample study.
Asymptotic Minimax Risk for the White Noise Model on the Sphere
Authors: Klemela Jussi
Published: March 2003

Estimation of an unknown function on the unit sphere of the Euclidean space is considered. The function is observed in Gaussian continuous time white noise. Uniform norm is chosen as a loss function and exact asymptotic minimax risk is derived extending the result of Korostelev (1993). The exact asymptotic minimax risk is also given for the L2‐loss, applying the result of Pinsker (1980).
On Consistency of the Self‐Consistent Estimator of Survival Functions with Interval‐Censored Data
Authors: Yu Qiqing , Li Linxiong , Wong George Y. C.
Published: March 2003

The self‐consistent estimator is commonly used for estimating a survival function with interval‐censored data. Recent studies on interval censoring have focused on case 2 interval censoring, which does not involve exact observations, and double censoring, which involves only exact, right‐censored or left‐censored observations. In this paper, we consider an interval censoring scheme that involves exact, left‐censored, right‐censored and strictly interval‐censored observations. Under this censoring scheme, we prove that the self‐consistent estimator is strongly consistent under certain regularity conditions.
Longitudinal Data Estimating Equations for Dispersion Models
Authors: Artes Rinaldo , Jørgensen Bent
Published: March 2003

Liang & Zeger's generalized estimating equation approach for analysis of longitudinal data is extended to marginal distributions of dispersion model type. This includes for example the von Mises and simplex distributions, suitable for angles and proportions, respectively. Both modelling of position and joint modelling of position and dispersion is considered, and the method is applied to a set of bird orientation data.
Conditionally Reducible Natural Exponential Families and Enriched Conjugate Priors
Authors: Consonni Guido , Veronese Piero
Published: March 2003

Consider a standard conjugate family of prior distributions for a vector‐parameter indexing an exponential family. Two distinct model parameterizations may well lead to standard conjugate families which are not consistent, i.e. one family cannot be derived from the other by the usual change‐of‐variable technique. This raises the problem of finding suitable parameterizations that may lead to enriched conjugate families which are more flexible than the traditional ones. The previous remark motivates the definition of a new property for an exponential family, named conditional reducibility. Features of conditionally‐reducible natural exponential families are investigated thoroughly. In particular, we relate this new property to the notion of cut, and show that conditionally‐reducible families admit a reparameterization in terms of a vector having likelihood‐independent components. A general methodology to obtain enriched conjugate distributions for conditionally‐reducible families is described in detail, generalizing previous works and more recent contributions in the area. The theory is illustrated with reference to natural exponential families having simple quadratic variance function.
Exact Non‐parametric Confidence Intervals for Quantiles with Progressive Type‐II Censoring
Authors: Guilbaud Olivier
Published: March 2003

It is shown how various exact non‐parametric inferences based on order statistics in one or two random samples can be generalized to situations with progressive type‐II censoring, which is a kind of evolutionary right censoring. Ordinary type‐II right censoring is a special case of such progressive censoring. These inferences include confidence intervals for a given parent quantile, prediction intervals for a given order statistic of a future sample, and related two‐sample inferences based on exceedance probabilities. The proposed inferences are valid for any parent distribution with continuous distribution function. The key result is that each observable uncensored order statistic that becomes available with progressive type‐II censoring can be represented as a mixture with known weights of underlying ordinary order statistics. The importance of this mixture representation lies in that various properties of such observable order statistics can be deduced immediately from well‐known properties of ordinary order statistics.
Moderate Deviations for Bayes Posteriors
Authors: EICHELSBACHER PETER , GANESH AYALVADI
Published: March 2003

Let (Xk)k∈ be a sequence of i.i.d. random variables taking values in a set ω, and consider the problem of estimating the law of X1 in a Bayesian framework. We prove, under mild conditions on the prior, that the sequence of posterior distributions satisfies a moderate deviation principle.
Hyper Inverse Wishart Distribution for Non‐decomposable Graphs and its Application to Bayesian Inference for Gaussian Graphical Models
Authors: ROVERATO ALBERTO
Published: March 2003

While conjugate Bayesian inference in decomposable Gaussian graphical models is largely solved, the non‐decomposable case still poses difficulties concerned with the specification of suitable priors and the evaluation of normalizing constants. In this paper we derive the DY‐conjugate prior (Diaconis & Ylvisaker, 1979) for non‐decomposable models and show that it can be regarded as a generalization to an arbitrary graph G of the hyper inverse Wishart distribution (Dawid & Lauritzen, 1993). In particular, if G is an incomplete prime graph it constitutes a non‐trivial generalization of the inverse Wishart distribution. Inference based on marginal likelihood requires the evaluation of a normalizing constant and we propose an importance sampling algorithm for its computation. Examples of structural learning involving non‐decomposable models are given. In order to deal efficiently with the set of all positive definite matrices with non‐decomposable zero‐pattern we introduce the operation of triangular completion of an incomplete triangular matrix. Such a device turns out to be extremely useful both in the proof of theoretical results and in the implementation of the Monte Carlo procedure.
Empirical Likelihood‐based Inference in Linear Models with Missing Data
Authors: WANG QIHUA , RAO J. N. K.
Published: March 2003

The missing response problem in linear regression is studied. An adjusted empirical likelihood approach to inference on the mean of the response variable is developed. A non‐parametric version of Wilks's theorem for the adjusted empirical likelihood is proved, and the corresponding empirical likelihood confidence interval for the mean is constructed. With auxiliary information, an empirical likelihood‐based estimator with asymptotic normality is defined and an adjusted empirical log‐likelihood function with asymptotic χ2is derived. A simulation study is conducted to compare the adjusted empirical likelihood methods and the normal approximation methods in terms of coverage accuracies and average lengths of the confidence intervals. Based on biases and standard errors, a comparison is also made between the empirical likelihood‐based estimator and related estimators by simulation. Our simulation indicates that the adjusted empirical likelihood methods perform competitively and the use of auxiliary information provides improved inferences.
The Enduring Scandinavian Party System
Authors: Sundberg Jan
Published: March 2003

The frozen party hypothesis has been rejected in several contemporary studies. However, by conceptualizing the Scandinavian parties in three categories, and by focusing the study on the three pole parties originally emphasized by Stein Rokkan, the bulk of the Scandinavian party system is still frozen. Diminishing class voting and electoral instability are inefficient measures of how well cleavages structures are reflected in the party system. Cleavages must be understood in a broader context where the struggle between the three fronts to incorporate new categories of voters is the very essence of an enduring cleavage structure.
Avoidance Costs and the Entry‐exit Condition on Polluting Firms
Authors: Kohn Robert E.
Published: March 2003

When marginal environmental damages increase with emissions, it is said to be a problem for entry and exit that the marginal firm pays more in Pigouvian taxes than the actual damages it causes. Accordingly it is sometimes assumed that over the range of an individual firm's emissions, marginal environmental damages are approximately constant. When avoidance costs are added to environmental damages, however, the inequality may be reversed so that the assumption of constant marginal damages may aggravate rather than eliminate the alleged problem.
Exchange Rates, Nominal Inertia and Inflation
Authors: Ireland Jonathan , Wren‐Lewis Simon
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the use of the nominal exchange rate in achieving disinflation under managed exchange rate regimes. Most previous empirical studies have not explicitly identified expectations in the wage and price setting behaviour of their econometric models, despite the importance of expectations both during a disinflation and in correcting misalignments. This has meant that costs due to nominal inertia and non‐neutralities have not been addressed separately from questions of credibility. We present results for the UK economy using both a theoretical and empirical model in which firms and workers form rational expectations, but where there is also nominal inertia. We identify costs in using the exchange rate to change the inflation rate, and also the costs involved in correcting any disequilibria in the real exchange rate.
Capital Stock, Unemployment and Wages in the UK and Germany
Authors: Arestis Philip , Biefang‐Frisancho Mariscal Iris
Published: March 2003

This paper is concerned with the view that capital formation is an important variable in the determination of unemployment and wages in Germany and the UK. Adverse demand shocks affect employment and investment. When shocks reverse, unemployment may not fall to previous levels due to insufficient capital. The empirical results show that unemployment has risen in the last twenty years in both countries due to insufficient investment. Policies that are aimed at stimulating investment may have a permanent effect on unemployment in Germany and the UK.
The Implications for Econometric Modelling of Forecast Failure
Authors: Hendry David F. , Doornik Jurgen A.
Published: March 2003

To reconcile forecast failure with building congruent empirical models, we analyze the sources of mis‐prediction. This reveals that ex ante forecast failure is purely a function of forecast‐period events, not determinable from in‐sample information. The primary causes are unmodelled shifts in deterministic factors, rather than model mis‐specification, collinearity, or a lack of parsimony. We examine the effects of deterministic breaks on equilibrium‐correction mechanisms, and consider the role of causal variables. Throughout, Monte Carlo simulation and empirical models illustrate the analysis, and support a progressive research strategy based on learning from past failures.
Dating of Quaternary Sediments from Western Borneo, Using Optically Stimulated Luminescence
Authors: Teeuw R.M. , Rhodes E.J. , Perkins N.K.
Published: March 2003

Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL) dates from five sites in western Kalimantan are compared with 14C and thermo‐luminescence dates from other sediments in the region. There is now strong evidence that the Old Alluvium of Peninsular Malaysia is of late Pleistocene age and that it can be correlated with the White Sand Complexes of western Borneo. This contrasts with the late Pliocene to mid Pleistocene ages for Old Alluvium, based primarily on stratigraphic deductions, put forward by geoscientists examining the regional tin deposits. This study shows that the upper parts, at least, of the western Borneo White Sand Complexes were deposited mid‐way through the last glaciation (76 ka), with extensive terminal Pleistocene re‐deposition (11.2‐9.8 ka) and at least two gully erosion events during the Holocene (5.8‐3.8 ka and 0.48 ka).
Labour Market Adjustment in the Time of Krismon: Changes in Employment Structure in Indonesia, 1997–98
Authors: McGee Terry , Firman Tommy
Published: March 2003

This study examines the labour market outcomes of the recent economic crisis (krismon) in Indonesia, focusing on the change of employment structure between 1997 and 1998. Indonesia's labour market has been extremely flexible in adjusting itself during the crisis. Labour has moved from “modern” economic sectors to agricultural and “informal” sectors, reflecting the strategy of poor households to cope with the hardship. While the impact of the economic crisis on the majority of male workers has been severe, female labourers have become increasingly involved in several jobs to enable the survival of their families.
Agribusiness on a Grand Scale – Felda's Sahabat Complex in East Malaysia
Authors: Sutton Keith
Published: March 2003

While agribusiness is normally associated with western multinational companies, Malaysia provides an alternative example of a Third World agribusiness, the Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA). FELDA has evolved through an advisory stage and then a major land settlement agency phase, assisting Malaysia's rural poor, to its present position as a major employer of immigrant agricultural labour and as a large commercial business in palm oil exporting. This recent agribusiness approach is best exemplified by FELDA's Sahabat complex of 54 schemes in Eastern Sabah. There, mono‐cultural oil palm cropping has been successfully developed while earlier environmental concerns have been largely ignored. Plans for Sahabat have been modified to accommodate immigrant labourers from Indonesia and the Philippines rather than local settlers from Malaysia. A modernised plantation approach has taken over from the initial contract farming and social engineering approach.
Cooperative Problem‐Solving and Teaching in Preschoolers
Authors: Ashley Jennifer , Tomasello Michael
Published: March 2003

The current study investigated the ontogenetic origins of children's skills of cooperative problem‐solving in a task involving two complementary roles. Participants were peer dyads of 24, 30, 36, and 42 months of age. Primary dyads were initially presented with an instrumental problem whose solution required them to cooperate by coordinating two complementary actions. To further investigate their understanding of the task, these same dyads were then presented with the same problem but with roles reversed. Finally, after each of these primary participants had demonstrated proficiency in both roles, each was separately paired with a naive peer and given the opportunity to teach the naive partner the task. A clear ontogenetic trend emerged. Even with adult assistance, 24‐month‐old children never became independently proficient at the task. Thirty‐and 36‐month‐old children became proficient mostly independently, but only relatively slowly and without demonstrating extensive amounts of behavioral coordination or the use of explicitly directive language to facilitate coordination. Although they did show evidence of recognizing when a peer was new to the task, children of this age engaged in little explicit teaching of naive peers. In contrast, 42‐month‐old children mastered the task much more quickly than the other children, responded much more quickly and accurately when their roles were reversed, coordinated both their actions and language in the task to a much greater extent, and engaged in more explicit teaching of naÃ¯ve peers. Results are discussed in terms of the developing social cognitive skills that enable children from 2 to 4 years of age to understand other persons as mental agents with whom they may share mental perspectives.
Stability and Variability of Adolescents’ Affiliation with Delinquent Friends: Predictors and Consequences
Authors: Brendgen Mara , Vitaro Frank , Bukowski William M.
Published: March 2003

The effects of stability versus change in adolescents’ affiliation with delinquent or nondelinquent friends over a two‐year period (T1–T2) on delinquent behavior one year later (T3) were examined. In addition, T1 predictors of stability and change in the affiliation with delinquent or nondelinquent friends from T1 to T2 were assessed. Participants were 152 adolescents (77 girls, mean age 12.1 years at T1). Friends’ delinquent behavior was assessed through friends’ self‐reports. The T1 predictor variables included adolescents’ own delinquent behavior, attitude toward delinquent behavior, and parental monitoring. Adolescents’ friendship affiliations at T2, but not at T1, predicted delinquent behavior at T3, suggesting a recency effect of friendship affiliation. Attitude toward delinquent behavior at T1 was the main predictor of stability versus change in adolescents’ affiliation with delinquent or nondelinquent friends from T1 to T2.
Book Review: Variable Outcomes among Children of Depressed Women
Authors: Teti Douglas M.
Published: March 2003

Book reviewed in this article:

Marian Radke‐Yarrow, Children of Depressed Mothers: FromEarly Childhood to Maturity
Maltreatment and Internal Representations of Relationships: Core Relationship Themes in the Narratives of Abused and Neglected Preschoolers
Authors: Waldinger Robert J. , Toth Sheree L. , Gerber Andrew
Published: March 2003

This study examined whether the predominance of particular themes in maltreated pre‐schoolers’ stories about relationships is related to type of maltreatment they experienced. The MacArthur Story Stem Battery was administered to 49 maltreated and 22 non‐maltreated children. Children’s representations of self and other were extracted from the resulting stories using the Core Conflictual Relationship Theme Method. Significant differences were found among the physically abused, sexually abused, neglected, and comparison subgroups with respect to the predominance of specific relationship themes in their stories. Both physically abused and neglected children represented the self as angry and opposing others more frequently than non‐maltreated children. Neglected children represented others as hurt, sad, or anxious more frequently than both abused and non‐maltreated children. Compared with all other children, sexually abused children represented others more frequently as liking them, and compared with physically abused children, expressed more frequent wishes to be close to others. This study supports the hypothesis that maltreated children’s internal representations of relationships are related to their experiences of specific types of maltreatment.
Context and Age Differences in Same‐ and Other‐gender Peer Preferences
Authors: Strough JoNell , Covatto Ann Marie
Published: March 2003

Age and gender differences in preferences for same‐ and other‐gender peers as partners for working on a school project and casual interactions at home were investigated. Participants were 82 students (19 sixth‐grade preadolescents; 29 eighth‐grade adolescents; 34 tenth‐ and eleventh‐grade older adolescents). Same‐gender preferences were assessed via peer nominations and ratings of expected enjoyment of interacting with same‐ and other‐gender peers. Preferences varied by context: individuals expected to enjoy same‐gender peers more than other‐gender peers when working on a project at school but not when interacting casually at home. Greater expected enjoyment of same‐gender peers over other‐gender peers was most pronounced for preadolescent boys and girls, and least pronounced for older adolescent males. Nominations of same‐gender peers for home and school activities decreased with age. Results are interpreted in light of a social‐contextual approach to gender segregation.