bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Quantifying the impact of sea level and morphodynamics on shoreline changes with remote sensing observations
Authors: Aschenneller Bene , Rietbroek Roelof , van der Wal Daphne
Published: March 2024

Potential causes for shoreline retreat are diverse and very site-specific. These include inundation through absolute sea level rise or relative sea level changes caused by vertical land motions, as well as morphological processes (erosion or accretion). A widespread approximation to quantify and separate the influences of sea level changes and morphodynamics is to use the Bruun Rule. This simplified model has been interpreted in two ways, either by modelling the sediment redistribution along the beach profile, or by assuming a linear relationship where the ratio of sea level change and beach slope relates to the shoreline change. Here we show that the combination of several remote sensing observations from the last 20-30 years with sea level from radar altimetry, shorelines from optical satellite imagery and land elevation from LiDAR can be used to quantify the influence of sea level change and morphodynamics on shoreline changes.In this case study for the barrier island of Terschelling (the Netherlands), we begin by assessing the uncertainties in the individual datasets. First, we compare ALES-retracked altimetry observations with two nearby tide gauges under different tidal corrections and estimate vertical land motion from GNSS height observations. For timeseries of cross-shore changes from satellite-derived shorelines, we show in a sensitivity analysis how different processing choices influence the outcome. Additionally, we intersect profiles of land elevation from a set of yearly coastal topobathymetry observations (JARKUS) with a horizontal plane at sea surface height in different combinations. We find that between 1992 and 2022 passive inundation accounts on average for -0.3 m/year of landward shoreline change at Terschelling, while the total estimated shoreline trend was on average -3.2 m/year. Finally, we will discuss possibilities and challenges to upscale the methodology to a global approach.
LUMIO: a CubseSat to detect meteoroid impacts on the lunar farside
Authors: Ferrari Fabio , Topputo Francesco , Buonagura Carmine , Giordano Carmine , Panicucci Paolo , Piccolo Felice , Rizza Antonio , Cervone Angelo , Koschny Detlef , Ammannito Eleonora , Moissl Richard , Walker Roger
Published: March 2024

A large number of meteoroids and micrometeoroids enter the Earth–Moon system continuously, constituting a potential threat to our planet. Lunar meteoroid impacts have caused in the past a substantial change in the lunar surface and its properties. With no atmospheric shield, the Moon is subject to a large number of impacts from meteoroids, typically ranging from a few tens of grams to a few kilograms every day. The high impact rate on the lunar surface has important implications for future human and robotic assets that will inhabit the Moon for significant periods of time. Therefore, a better understanding of the meteoroid population in the cislunar environment is required for future exploration of the Moon. Moreover, refining current meteoroid models is of paramount importance for many applications, including planetary science investigations. For instance, since meteoroids may travel dispersed along the orbit of their parent body, understanding meteoroids and associated phenomena can be valuable for the study of asteroids and comets themselves, and their dynamical paths. Studying meteoroid impacts can help deepening the understanding of the spatial distribution of near-Earth objects in the Solar System. The study of dust particles is also relevant to the topic of space weather. The ability to predict impacts is therefore critical to many applications, both related to engineering aspects of space exploration, and to more scientific investigations regarding evolutional processes in the Solar System. Also, accurate impact flux models would be crucial to support planetary defense actions, as large meteoroids can cause severe damage to our communities.In this context, the Lunar Meteoroid Impacts Observer (LUMIO) is a CubeSat mission to observe, quantify, and characterise lunar meteoroid impacts, by detecting their impact flashes on the far-side of the Moon. This complements the information available from Earth-based observatories, which are bounded to the lunar near-side, with the goal of synthesising a global recognition of the lunar meteoroid environment. LUMIO envisages a 12U CubeSat form-factor placed in a halo orbit at Earth-Moon L2. The detections are performed using the LUMIO-Cam, an optical instrument capable of detecting light flashes in the visible spectrum (450-950 nm). LUMIO has successfully passed Phases A and B and is currently moving towards Phase C.We present the latest results on the modelling of the meteoroid environment in the Earth-Moon system, including an estimate of LUMIO’s potential impact on our existing knowledge of meteoroids, supported by high-fidelity simulation data. An overview of the present-day LUMIO CubeSat design is also given, with a focus on the latest developments involving both the ongoing/planned scientific activities and the development of the payload.
Thorium normalization for identification of organic carbon anomalies during the Lower Cretaceous paleolakes in the Southern Hemisphere.
Authors: Albuquerque Ana Luiza , Carreira Victor , Barberes Gabriel , Mattos Raphaela , Venancio Igor , Affonso Pedro Abreu , Viegas Igor , Spigolon Andre
Published: March 2024

Lagoons are suitable paleoclimatic registers. They carry information about cyclic sedimentary deposits in a paralic and closed environment. The proposed study uses gamma radiation spectrometry to calculate the normalization of thorium in a Brazilian pre-salt well located in the Campos Sedimentary basin during the rift sequence (Cabiunas and Lagoa Feia formations), especially during the deposition of the Buracica and Jiquiá shales. Thorium normalization allows a reduction in risk during exploration, in addition to increasing the potential for success in organic content determination. The radioisotopes of interest in this work are the radioactive nucleotides 40K, 238U, and 232Th, commonly found in underground formations and as constituents of rocks with high total organic TOC (Fertl, 1979). The method proposed by Saunders et al. (1993) was able to correlate airborne gamma radiation anomalies with hydrocarbon occurrences in structural and stratigraphic traps through calibration of 40K and 238U values using 232Th. The model determined the "ideal" 40K and "ideal" 238U as Ki=(Kav/Thav)Ths and Ui=(Uav/Thav)Ths. Where "s" is the measured or sampled value, "i" is the ideal value, and "av" is given as the average value. After this, it is necessary to calculate the measured and idealized values (Saunders et al., 1987) by defining KD%=(Ks-Ki)/Ks and UD%=(Us-Ui)/Us. Where KD decreases, and UD generally increases when hydrocarbons are present. A new DRAD calculation combines the two previous equations with positive DRAD values, indicating the top of hydrocarbon anomalies by calculating DRAD=UD%-KD% and DRAD=((Us/Uav)-(Ks/Kav))/(Ths/Thav). The 40K anomaly typically occurs above rock horizons with high organic content. This work presents the results of the study of thorium normalization for the location and identification of high hydrocarbon content during a continental lagunar paleoenvironment phase in the southern hemisphere.
Gravity waves and shear in the lower stratosphere: idealized experiments of baroclinic life cycles
Authors: Umbarkar Madhuri , Kunkel Daniel
Published: March 2024

Mixing plays a crucial role on redistributing radiation-actively trace species in the lower stratosphere. In particular, it is potentially the dominant effect for the formation of the extra-tropical transition layer (ExTL). However, various dynamical features can lead to mixing and the role of the small scale dynamics is not yet clear. In the extra-tropics, stratosphere troposphere exchange (STE) occurs frequently during baroclinic life cycles, e.g., in the vicinity of tropopause folds, cut-off lows, or stratospheric streamers. However, how the gravity waves (GWs) contributes to STE and mixing in the lower stratosphere is a research area with many open questions. A series of baroclinic life cycle experiments with the ICOsahedral Non-hydrostatic (ICON) general circulation model have been performed in order to study the impact of gravity waves on the transport and mixing between the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). Dry adiabatic experiments with varying horizontal and vertical resolution allowed to study the GW occurrence in relation to the model grid spacing. Moreover, the effect of varying initial conditions on the emergence of gravity waves is studied. We present analysis of the occurrence of GW in the various life cycles, their dependence on the model grid spacing and the initial conditions. Moreover, we present an analysis on the vertical shear of the horizontal wind associated with gravity waves and the potential for turbulence occurrence as a prerequisite for mixing. The focus of our analysis is the lowermost stratosphere and the effect of gravity wave induced mixing on the formation of the ExTL.
ClimateResearchNet - a collaboration of climate communicators
Authors: Jeffery Hazel , Martins Helena
Published: March 2024

ClimateResearchNetClimate Science is an active field of research whose findings are constantly feeding our knowledge about the changing climate, future scenarios and possible solutions. The climate-research community plays a key role in informing policy- and decision-makers, business and society. Hence, climate researchers are frequently urged to engage in climate change dialogues, as they are crucial stakeholders.There is often a long gap before published research results reach the policy universe and an even longer time before they reach the rest of society. This network aims to give climate research communication a push so that its results are shared faster, more efficiently and more broadly.A group of EU and nationally-funded climate research projects identified the need to collaborate and build a community of climate communicators to increase the impact of our research. Currently, there are over 20 projects represented in our network.Objectives of the NetworkIncreasing the impact of each member’s communication by:
       Reaching a broader and more diverse audience,
       Having a pool of valuable content to share regularly - to keep our social networks active.
Creating a community of practice to build common knowledge on best practices and to make climate-research communication more impactful.
Establish a strong presence of the climate research community in communication networks and on social media. 
Whilst the network is still in its infancy, there have been some initial achievements, including: A science-to-policy meeting with EU officials in Brussels, which involved research from 5 EU projects,
Submission of a Great Debate session at EGU2024 – “Unleashing your potential as an Early-Career researcher: bridging the research-policy divide”,
Network meetings where we have shared our experiences, provided project introductions, and mapped out stakeholder engagement, communications and early career researcher activities across the projects and identified some topics of common interest eg. participation in COPs.
We would love to engage with other projects, hearing about their experiences in managing communication of their project results, types of activities that have been impactful and how communication roles in projects can be better networked to provide a community of practice.Authors: Hazel Jeffery, Mariana Rocha, Helena Martins, Sara Octenjak, Rosa Rodriguez Gasen
Phenological characterization of major winegrape varieties in the Iberian Peninsula
Authors: Fernandez Pastor Marta ,   Iberian Future Wines Research Team
Published: March 2024

The phenology of wine grapes has emerged as a crucial aspect for comprehending and forecasting the impacts of climate change on viticulture. This is due to phenology being essential in evaluating the suitability of grape varieties to future conditions. However, there is still a lack of quantitative characterization for key phenological stages in a majority of indigenous wine grape varieties from Spain and Portugal. Here we analyze the phenological responses to climate of predominant grape varieties in the Iberian Peninsula, including Tempranillo, Airen, Garnacha, Macabeo, and other varieties like Albariño, Godello, Pedro Ximenez, Fernão Pires (Portugal), which are extensively cultivated in specific regions. We compiled a comprehensive dataset from research centers and specialized organizations such as Origin Denominations across the Iberian Peninsula. The recorded field observations were then compared against well-established agroclimatic indices, such as Growing Degree Days (GDD), days with maximum temperature above 35°C, or days below 10ºC, amongst others. Even within our limited set of varieties, we observed surprising diversity in responses, supporting phenology-based varietal selection as an adaptive solution. This underscores the necessity to continue documenting phenology for many other locally understudied varieties. Our findings fill a knowledge gap, contributing to ongoing efforts in refining varietal selection strategies for adapting viticulture to climate change.
Infrasound analysis of break-off events  from Planpincieux glacier, Mount Blanc, Italy
Authors: Marchetti Emanuele , Troilo Fabrizio , Perret Paolo , Belli Giacomo , Gheri Duccio , Sanchez Claudia
Published: March 2024

Glacier break-off events constitute a severe hazard in Alpine regions and their effects are expected to increase soon because of climate changes. Within this rapidly changing scenario, the development and implementation of new monitoring solutions and warning systems, able to detect collapses and possibly estimate the volumes, is of critical importance.In this paper we present the analysis of avalanching activity from Planpincieux glacier (Aosta valley) through infrasound data collected by a small aperture (~ 150 m) array deployed at short distance (~ 2000 m) from the hanging front. The analysis is performed over five time periods between August 2020 and December 2022 summing up into 360 days. From a data set of confirmed events, infrasound wave parameters (intensity, peak amplitude, frequency and duration) are compared with collapse volumes estimated from photogrammetry and experimental relations are defined.Morerover, characteristics of infrasound signals of confirmed events are used to extract signals that are likely produced by collapses from the whole dataset of infrasound detections and a volumetric flux of collapses from the front of the Planpincieux glacier is derived through time.  
Simulating the impact of ground-based façade greenery design on indoor heat stress reduction
Authors: Dahm Yannick , Hoffmann Karin , Schinke Oliver , Nehls Thomas
Published: March 2024

Vertical greenery (VG) reduces the indoor heat hazard. To take advantage of their cooling effects, the underlying key design factors have to be understood. However, the influence of plant species, building type, and VG design on the thermal advantages has received limited attention in current literature.Therefore, heat fluxes and temperature profiles for different ground based VG designs in the temperate climate of Berlin, Germany, were analysed using a process-based model. Indoor temperature profiles were integrated, assuming that air conditioning (AC) had been installed. Cooling effects have been simulated for six parameterised plant species of varying ages, across three different building types, and alternated air gap and crop thickness.The results were compared, quantifying the cooling potential and the possible energy savings. They differ between plant species and building types. The diurnal variation of the indoor temperature resulted in maximum savings during the night. Fallopia baldschuanica showed the highest energy savings of approximately 23%. Thereby, it was multiple times more energy efficient than a Humulus lupulus.This illustrates the significance of selecting the appropriate VG plant species. Considering factors such as growth rates and potential harm to buildings, VG can be strategically optimzed.
Quantifying the impacts of an exogenous dust input to the soil and stream chemistry of an upland Mediterranean watershed using a reactive transport modeling framework
Authors: Aranda Reina Celia , Bouchez Julien , Golla Jon K. , Ayral Pierre-Alain , Druhan Jennifer L.
Published: March 2024

In upland watersheds, depletion of essential nutrients due to physical erosion and chemical weathering can be compensated by exogenous inputs such as aeolian dust deposition. The presence and chemical composition of exogenous dust arriving in natural environments is commonly analyzed in soil profiles using a suite of geochemical and isotopic tracers. However, it remains an outstanding challenge to describe the impacts of dust on the reaction rates that produce these profiles and how this cascades into ecosystem function and water chemistry. As increasingly intense and episodic periods of drought and aridity are promoted by a warming climate, the role of dust production and deposition in Critical Zone structure and function requires improved modeling techniques to facilitate rigorous quantification and prediction. Here we present a newly developed process-based reactive transport framework by modifying the open source CrunchTope software in order to quantitatively interpret the impacts of dust deposition and solubilization in stream water chemistry, regolith weathering rates, and ecosystem nutrient availability. We describe two simulations: (1) a generic model demonstrating a simplified system in which bedrock uplift and soil erosion occur in tandem with solid phase dust deposition at the land surface; (2) a case study based on a small (0.54 km2) upland Mediterranean watershed located on Mont Lozère in the National Park of Les Cévennes, France. In the absence of an exogenous dust input, long-term field observations of calcium in stream water, rain, bedrock, soil, and plant samples cannot be produced from reactive transport simulations of the weathering profile. By adding a carbonate-rich depositional input consistent with the composition of Saharan dust, both stream water chemistry and elemental mass-transfer coefficients in the soil profile better align with field observations, suggesting that dust has become a significant input to this field site in the last ~10 ka. Over this period, the deposition of exogenous carbonates has introduced far more calcium into the system than what could be supplied by the Ca-poor granitic bedrock. This highly soluble carbonate also limits the reactive potential of infiltrating precipitation, ultimately inhibiting chemical weathering rates and hence the component of elemental export fluxes derived from local bedrock. This is the first demonstration of solid-phase dust deposition incorporated into a multi-component reactive transport framework. Our update to the CrunchTope source code allows us to show how dust incorporation affects geochemical cycling across upland watersheds beyond the prohibitive limitations of simplified steady-state assumptions, a feature that will allow further research of a variety of Critical Zone systems subject to the effects of environmental change scenarios. 
Characterizing clusters with strong subsequent events in Central Italy using RAMONES
Authors: Brondi Piero , Gentili Stefania , Picozzi Matteo , Spallarossa Daniele , Di Giovambattista Rita
Published: March 2024

Italy is a country affected by strong seismic activity due to the collision between the African and Euro-Asian plates. In such an area, it often happens that a first strong earthquake (FSE) is followed by a subsequent strong event (SSE) of similar magnitude. In recent years, several studies have attempted to analyze the correlation between the occurrence of a possible SSE in an area and the spatio-temporal distribution of the stress drop on the same area. In this work, we have investigated this relationship in Central Italy by using the Rapid Assessment of MOmeNt and Energy Service (RAMONES), which provides source parameters for events that have occurred in the area since 2007. Using 12900 ML≥2 events available in the RAMONES catalog and a window-based clustering method, we obtained 25 clusters between 2009 and 2017 with magnitude of the FSE greater or equal to 4. Among them are also the clusters corresponding to the L'Aquila earthquake (2009) and the Amatrice earthquake (2016). Looking at the magnitude difference between the FSE and the strongest SSE (DM), it is less than or equal to 1 in 64% of the cases and greater than 1 in 36%. In the first case, we labelled the cluster as type A, in the second case as type B. By analyzing the ratio between seismic energy and seismic moment provided by RAMONES over the entire duration of the cluster, we found that almost all A clusters correspond to a maximum change in apparent stress over time larger than the one of B clusters. To a first approximation, this observation also proves to be true when analyzing the seismicity before the strongest SSE or at the first SSE. These preliminary results are therefore encouraging for future use in forecasting SSEs in Central Italy.Funded by the NEar real-tiME results of Physical and StatIstical Seismology for earthquakes observations, modeling and forecasting (NEMESIS) Project (INGV).
Phosphorous in the seabed sediments of the Gulf of Riga, Baltic Sea: Fe-Mn concretions as main carriers of mobile phosphorous 
Authors: Ausmeel Markus , Liira Martin , Paiste Päärn , Lepland Aivo , Suuroja Sten
Published: March 2024

Baltic Sea is a geologically young semi-enclosed brakish-water body which water exchange with the ocean has been gradually declining. Approximately 85 million people live in the Baltic Sea's catchment area, resulting in significant human impact on the basin's ecosystem. Eutrophication due to anthropogenic discharge of nutrients is considered to be the most serious environmental problem which leads to a greater growth of phytoplankton and algae, deterioration of water quality, and lack of oxygen in near-bottom water masses. As a result of recent large-scale input of nutrients, phosphorus has accumulated in the seabed sediments from where it can be remobilized and released into the water column under favorable conditions (hypoxic or anoxic). Marine sediments contain phosphorus in various components i.e. fractions, but not all of them are affected by remobilization. Therefore, knowing how phosphorus fractions are distributed in seabed sediments is important.One part of the Baltic Sea that has received little attention, but will significantly affect the entire Baltic Sea in the future, is the Gulf of Riga. The Gulf of Riga accounts for less than 5% of the total area of the Baltic Sea and less than 2% of the total water volume. Due to its shallowness and limited connection with the open Baltic Sea, the Gulf of Riga is strongly influenced by riverine input. Intense agriculture, rapid development of industry, and urbanization have resulted in high loads of nutrients into the Gulf of Riga already since the 1960s.Phosphorus fractions and their vertical distribution were studied from the sea-bottom sediments from the Gulf of Riga and other coastal areas of western Estonia. The amount of potentially mobile phosphorus stored in the surface sediments of the Gulf of Riga is several times higher than in other accumulation areas of the Baltic Sea, with concentrations as high as 980 mg/kg(dw). A strong correlation between Mn and mobile phosphorus concentration suggests that Fe-Mn concretions control the amount of phosphorus in the sediments of the Gulf of Riga. Although the bottom waters of the Gulf of Riga are currently predominantly oxic, a decreasing trend of deep-layer oxygen concentrations and more frequent hypoxia in the Gulf of Riga during previous decades have been documented. Considering the large amount of potentially mobile phosphorus in the sediments of the Gulf of Riga, surpassing the annual total phosphorus input to the Baltic Sea, a substantial release of phosphorus could be inevitable, possibly impacting the entire Baltic Sea ecosystem.
Abandoned tidal channels as hotspots of Blue Carbon
Authors: Puppin Alice , Tognin Davide , Ghinassi Massimiliano , D'Alpaos Andrea , Finotello Alvise
Published: March 2024

Tidal marshes, recognized as “Blue Carbon ecosystems” for their high carbon sequestration rates, owe their carbon storage potential to primary production and rapid surface accretion driven by complex feedbacks among hydrodynamic, morphological, and biological processes. Tidal channel networks cutting through tidal wetlands exert a first-order control on ecogeomorphological dynamics by critically controlling fluxes of nutrients, sediments, and particulate matter. Although these networks have been traditionally seen as stable features, recent studies have shown that they are in fact highly dynamic systems. In particular, lateral channel migration, coupled with high drainage density, leads to frequent channel abandonment through meander cutoffs and channel piracies (i.e., stream captures). These processes significantly impact sediment dynamics, since reduced flow velocities within abandoned channels promote particle settling and channel infill, thereby providing ideal conditions for rapid organic matter deposition and trapping.To characterize the depositional processes occurring in abandoned tidal channels and investigate their role in blue carbon sequestration and storage, we analysed several sediment cores retrieved from abandoned tidal channels in the microtidal Venice Lagoon, Italy. Cores were sampled every 5 cm for soil dry bulk density, organic matter, and organic carbon content. Organic matter content was estimated as the difference in weight before and after the Loss-On-Ignition (LOI), while organic carbon was directly measured using an elemental analyser. Sedimentary facies analyses allowed for identifying the deposits accumulated during the abandonment phase, while aerial and satellite image analyses facilitated the evaluation of the temporal evolution of the channel infill process, enabling the estimation of the related infill rate. Combining infill rate and organic carbon density, we estimated the carbon accumulation potential of abandoned tidal channels, as well as its variability, comparing it to surrounding marshes.Preliminary results show that even if channel fill deposits are characterized by slightly lower organic matter content relative to marsh deposits, they feature significantly higher carbon accumulation rates owing to higher sediment deposition rates. These findings suggest that abandoned tidal channels could represent key hotspots for blue carbon accumulation. Consequently, a better understanding of depositional processes and carbon accumulation in abandoned tidal channels, as well as their characteristic spatiotemporal dynamics, can critically enhance the assessment of blue carbon sequestration and stock in coastal wetlands, providing crucial insights for effective conservation and restoration strategies.
Geomorphological analysis of the Serio River aimed at its sustainable management
Authors: Pittau Sharon , Rinaldi Massimo , Simonelli Tommaso , Scorpio Vittoria
Published: March 2024

The study of the historical evolution of rivers is a requirement for their sustainable management.  This work aims to investigate the historical geomorphological evolution and the present evolutionary trends of the valley portion of the Serio River (Lombardia, Italy) in order to propose a sustainable management of its river corridor. In particular, we focus on the planimetric evolution of the active channel from 1954 until today through the analysis of: (i) channel morphological configuration, (ii) variation of channel width, and (iii) bank erosion rates.Analyses were based on multi-temporal orthophoto mapping in GIS environment (with the highest temporal resolution over the last 25 years) along a valley segment of about 80 km.Results show that in 1954 the Serio River was characterised by a braided pattern in the segment flowing through the high plain and by a sinuous-meandering in the segment flowing through the lower plain. In the sinuous and meandering segment, where the morphology configuration did not change over time, the active channel width decreased from a maximum of about 80 m in 1954 to a minimum of about 35 m until the 1970s-80s and then it remained stable due to the construction of anthropogenic works along the banks. The braided reach narrowed from a maximum of about 350 m in 1954 to a minimum of about 130 m in 1988, with decreases in the braiding index. By the 1990s, active channel width alternated phases of widening and narrowing (between about 10 m and 40 m). Correspondence between the widening and the occurrence of flood events was observed. Moreover, the high river dynamic, with a continuous lateral migration of the active channel, resulted in bank erosions that locally reaches up to 100 metres in a time interval of 1-5 years.The final outcome of this study was to propose integrated management solution aiming at the mitigation of geomorphic hazards and at the improvement of the morphological status of the river, through the delineation of areas of potential future lateral erosion. 
Evolving The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) To Better Support The Climate Community And Future Climate Assessments
Authors: Hewitt Helene , Dunne John ,   CMIP Panel and IPO
Published: March 2024

Over four decades, CMIP has driven massive improvements in the modelled representation of the Earth system, whilst also seeing huge growth in its scope and complexity. In its most recent phase, CMIP6, a broad spectrum of questions continues to be answered across twenty-four individual model intercomparison projects (MIPs). This science improves process understanding and assesses the climate’s response to forcing, systematic biases, variability, and predictability in line with WCRP Scientific Objectives. CMIP and its associated data infrastructure have become essential to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other international and national climate assessments, increasingly including the downstream mitigation, impacts, and adaptation communities.However, despite the invaluable science produced from CMIP6 data, many challenges were still faced by the model data providers, the data delivery infrastructure, and users, which need to be addressed moving forwards. A specific challenge in CMIP6 was the burden placed on the modelling centres, in part due to the large number of requested experiments and delays in the preparation of the CMIP6 forcing datasets and climate data request.The CMIP structure is evolving into a continuous, community-based climate modelling programme to tackle key and timely climate science questions and facilitate delivery of relevant multi-model simulations. This activity will be supported by the design of experimental protocols, an infrastructure that supports data publication and access, and quasi-operational extension of historical forcings.  A subset of experiments is proposed to be fast-tracked to deliver climate information for national and international climate assessments and informing policy and decision making. The CMIP governing panels are coordinating community activities to reduce the burden placed on modelling centres, continue to enhance novel and innovative scientific activities, and maximise computational efficiencies, whilst continuing to deliver impactful climate model data.
Effect of magnetic field inclination on SDO/AIA 1600 Å emission
Authors: Tähtinen Ismo , Pevtsov Alexei , Asikainen Timo , Mursula Kalevi
Published: March 2024

A strong correlation between the intensity of chromospheric emissions and the (unsigned) photospheric magnetic field strength has been established in several studies. These studies have typically been based on line-of-sight (LOS) observations of the magnetic field, while measurements of the full 3D magnetic vector, which provide the true field strength and the orientation of magnetic field line, have not been studied in this context. Thus, the possible effect of magnetic field inclination on chromospheric emissions has remained hidden so far. We study here how the inclination of the photospheric magnetic field, as measured by the full 3D magnetic vector from the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) Helioseismic Magnetic Imager (HMI), affects the FUV emission at around 1600 Å from SDO Atmospheric Imaging Assembly (AIA). We analyze 1168 co-temporal observations by the two instruments from 2014 to 2017. We focus on magnetically active regions outside the sunspots (e.g., plages and network) close to the solar disk center.We find that the AIA 1600 Å emission typically decreases with increasing (more horizontal) inclination. For all inclinations, AIA 1600 Å emission increases with increasing magnetic field to a maximum emission and then slowly decreases for larger field strengths. Maximum emission and the related field strength decrease with inclination. Above this field strength of maximum emission, the emission decouples from the field strength and is mainly governed by inclination. For fixed AIA emission level the associated magnetic field strength decreases with inclination. The difference in the median magnetic field strength can be more than 200 G (about a factor of two) for the same emission level between almost radial (γLoc ≈ 15°) and nearly-horizontal (γLoc ≈ 60°) fields.AIA 1600 Å emission and magnetic field inclination are bimodally distributed with constant magnetic field strength below 1000 G. One population has a high AIA emission and a roughly vertical magnetic field, the other a lower emission and a horizontal field. The population consisting of less bright pixels with horizontal field is typically found at the border of active region, while the population with bright pixels with a vertical field occupy the bulk of an active region.Our results show that the chromospheric FUV emission at around 1600 Å is strongly influenced by the inclination of the magnetic field. These results are important, for example, for models aiming to reconstruct the solar spectral irradiance or the past solar activity based on chromospheric emissions. These models would be more accurate if they took into account the effect of inclination of the magnetic field on FUV emissivity.
A catastrophe model for Windstorm in Italy: developing a stochastic windstorm event set adjusted with open-access reanalysis datasets
Authors: Aiazzi Lorenzo , Persiano Simone , Bottazzi Michele , Gallotti Glauco , Petruccelli Antonio , Ait-Chaalal Farid , Leoncini Giovanni
Published: March 2024

Windstorms are one of the most destructive natural disasters in Europe, causing considerable human and economic impacts, ranging from fatalities and injuries to damage to agriculture, infrastructures, and properties. The European Commission’s Joint Research Centre (JRC) estimates annual losses of 5 €-billion for the European Union and United Kingdom (Spinoni et al., 2020). While in these areas there is not high confidence on the projected changes in windstorm intensity and frequency due to climate change (Ranasinghe et al., 2021), damages resulting from windstorms will most likely increase in the future due to the appreciation of asset values (Spinoni et al., 2020).Although Italy is one of the most affected European countries, with annual absolute losses estimated above 0.5 €-billion (Spinoni et al., 2020), windstorm is still considered to be a secondary peril. However, severe windstorm events in the last few years (e.g., Storm Vaia in October 2018) have raised an increasing interest of the Italian insurance industry in understanding and modelling this peril.In this context, we aim at developing a catastrophe model that quantifies the financial impacts of windstorms on the insurance market in Italy. To this aim, here we perform the calibration of a stochastic windstorm event set for the hazard component of the model. Uncalibrated footprints are obtained from simulation outputs of global and regional numerical models. Then, historical event footprints are extracted from open-access reanalysis datasets (e.g., ERA5, CERRA) and used to correct the climatology of the stochastic set and to adjust the wind-speeds of its individual events. This analysis is expected to be preparatory for the development of a comprehensive catastrophe model that combines wind hazard with exposure and vulnerability to assess windstorm-related financial losses in Italy. References:Ranasinghe, R., et al., 2021: Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., et al., (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 1767–1926, doi: 10.1017/9781009157896.014.Spinoni, J., et al., 2020: Global warming and windstorm impacts in the EU, EUR 29960 EN, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg, 2020, ISBN 978-92-76-12955-4, doi:10.2760/039014. JRC118595.
Relationships between temperature, elevation, and surface exposure age in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica
Authors: Bourikas Taylor , Tremblay Marissa , Lamp Jennifer , Balco Greg , Granger Darryl
Published: March 2024

The McMurdo Dry Valleys are an ice-free region along the coast of the Transantarctic Mountains that display well-preserved polar desert morphologic features, particularly at high elevations. The extent of these well-preserved features suggests that cold-desert conditions have been present for millions of years. This is thought to be because average summer air temperatures in much of the McMurdo Dry Valleys remain below -3ºC, preventing significant amounts of liquid water from forming and in turn keeping erosion rates low. Recent climate simulations suggest that these freezing temperatures persist during summer months at high elevations in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, even during past warm periods characterized by significant ice sheet recession. Surfaces at lower elevations in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, subject to warmer temperatures during warm periods and interglacials, are thought to experience overall faster erosion rates compared to high elevation outcrops. Here, we examine the relationships between elevation, temperature, and apparent surface exposure age for outcrops of the Beacon Sandstone in the McMurdo Dry Valleys. We use a compilation of cosmogenic nuclide measurements available in the ICE-D database to evaluate the correlation between apparent surface exposure age and elevation for outcrops of the Beacon Sandstone across the McMurdo Dry Valleys. At or near a number of the cosmogenic nuclide sites, local summertime ground and air surface temperature data are available from weather stations. We use these weather station data to document how ground temperatures, which ultimately control the availability of liquid water and therefore rates of surface processes, correspond with the apparent exposure ages and site elevations of Beacon Sandstone outcrops. In addition, we investigate whether field observations indicating a relationship between the coloration and surface appearance of Beacon Sandstone outcrops and the surface weathering/erosion rate can be quantified using satellite remote sensing data and the spectral properties of the outcrops. Tying all of these results together, we assess the role of temperature and other physical parameters on the rates of surface processes in the McMurdo Dry Valleys during the last few million ice-free years.
Multiyear spatial and temporal variability of microcystin concentrations in an irrigation pond in Maryland, USA
Authors: Smith Jaclyn , Stocker Matthew , Pachepsky Yakov
Published: March 2024

Cyanotoxins in agricultural irrigation waters pose a potential human and animal health risk. Cyanotoxins can be transported to crops and soil during irrigation; they can remain in the soils for extended periods and be absorbed by root systems. Spatial and temporal variations of cyanotoxin concentrations have been reported for various freshwater sources. However, little has been reported for agricultural irrigation ponds. The objective of this research is to determine if persistent spatial and temporal patterns of the cyanotoxin microcystin occur in agricultural irrigation ponds over several years. The study was performed at a commercial irrigation pond in Maryland, USA, during the 2022-2023 summer sampling campaign over a fixed spatial 10-location grid on 16 sampling dates. Microcystin concentrations were determined using ELISA microcystin-ADDA kits. Ten water quality parameters were obtained using fluorometry and in-situ sensing. Temporal and spatial persistence was assessed using mean relative differences (MRDs) between measurements in each location and averaged measurements across the pond on each sampling date. Positive (negative) MRDs were found in locations where concentrations were predominantly larger (smaller) than the pond’s average. Persistent spatial patterns of microcystin concentrations were found. The pond’s flow conditions and bank proximity to sample locations were indicative of the MRD values signs and amplitudes. The highest absolute values of correlation coefficients were found between microcystin and pH, and microcystin and phycocyanin. The lowest absolute values for correlation coefficients were found for CDOM and chl-a. Results of this work show that microcystin concentrations can follow stable spatial and temporal patterns in irrigation ponds over multiple years, indicating that water quality sampling for cyanotoxins and placement of water intake should not be arbitrary. Research of the spatiotemporal variability of other cyanotoxin concentrations as well as understanding the degree of site-specificity of cyanotoxin concentration relationships with water quality parameters presents an interesting research avenue.
 Multi-parameter study of the pre-earthquake phase associated with the Kahramanmaraş sequence in Türkiye on February 6th, 2023. 
Authors: Ouzounov Dimitar , Inan Sedat , Kalenda Pavel , Neumann Libor , Pulinets Sergey , Liu Jann-Yenq , Shen Xuhui , Yan Rui , Rušajová Jana , Kafatos Menas C. , Taylor Patrick
Published: March 2024

We study critical lithosphere/atmosphere /ionosphere coupling processes that precede earthquake events. Soon after the M7.8 and M7.5 in Kahramanmaraş, Türkiye on Feb 6, 2023, Kahramanmaraş earthquakes, we started collecting and processing multi-parameter data from ground, atmosphere, and satellite observations, such as 1/ Vertical static pendulums data from the European network; 2/ Hydrogeochemical data for electrical conductivity and major ion contents from the spring water samples near Kahramanmaraş ; 3/ Outgoing long-wavelength radiation (OLR) obtained from satellites NPOESS; 4/ Ionospheric plasma observations from China/Italy Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES1);5/Electron density variations in the ionosphere via GPS Total Electron Content (GPS/TEC) and 6/ Atmospheric chemical potential (ACP) obtained from NASA assimilation models. We have detected two temporal groups of pre-earthquake anomalies: A/few months in advance - hydrogeochemical anomalies lasting up to six months and vertical static pendulums lasting two months ahead of the seismic rupture and B/few days in advance -  OLR and ACP anomalies showed an abnormal increase on Jan 15-30, along with the plasma electron and oxygen ion density from the CSES1 satellite which is highly correlated with electron density variations in the ionosphere from GPS/TEC. Two groups of identified anomalies relate to different stages of Kahramanmaraş earthquake preparation processes. The first type was linked to the crustal deformation phase and was associated primarily with the coupling processes of the lithosphere-atmosphere. Based on the cross-event analysis of major seismicity in the regions, we found similarities in the pre-earthquake pattern occurrence between the M7.8/M7.5 2023 Kahramanmaraş sequence and the M7.2 Van Earthquake of 2011 and two other major events.We show that we could extract new information about the different stages of earthquake preparation processes by combining ground and near-space data according to the physical concept of LAIC.
Volcanic fire hazard modeling
Authors: Guardo Roberto , Bilotta Giuseppe , Ganci Gaetana , Zuccarello Francesco , Andronico Daniele , Cappello Annalisa
Published: March 2024

Numerical models have been extensively explored for simulating forest fire propagation, employing a spectrum of approaches ranging from intricate physical models to simpler graph or cellular automata-based models. These models rely on various input parameters such as humidity, radiant capacity, vegetation flammability, tree types, wind and topography to accurately replicate fire spread. When integrated with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), these models facilitate classifying soil and mapping burnt areas. Despite the progress in forest fire models, a dedicated model for volcanic-induced fires is notably absent. Leveraging our expertise in lava flow hazard modeling, we have introduced a novel numerical model to address the current lack of a specific model for volcanic-induced fires. This model is based on cellular automata to tackle issues related to accessibility, usability, and computational costs inherent in existing applications. Indeed, the increased availability of low-cost, high-performance computing hardware has enhanced the accessibility and cost-effectiveness of cellular automata-based simulations, enabling the simulation of fire propagation under multiple environmental conditions. Our new model is able to generate fire hazard scenarios, providing insights into the likelihood of combustion. We present test cases using Stromboli Island as a case study, as it is an area where volcanic eruptions already caused fires that also contributed to human loss. Our results exhibit good spatial accuracy, with a Brier score of 0.188±0.002 and 0.073±0.001 for the fire spread on July 3, 2019, and May 25, 2022, respectively.
Ocean-Atmosphere Observations and Key Results from the 2021-2023 Atlantic Hurricane Saildrone Missions
Authors: Foltz Gregory , Zhang Chidong , Chiodi Andy , Zhang Dongxiao , Mazza Edoardo , Cokelet Edward , Looney Lev , Schulz Hauke , Chi Nan-Hsun , Zhang Jun , Savarin Ajda , Kim Hyun-Sook , Burger Eugene , Bringas Francis , Edwards Catherine
Published: March 2024

During the 2021-2023 Atlantic hurricane seasons, 24 Saildrone uncrewed surface vehicles (USVs) were deployed in the western Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico to collect ocean-atmosphere data within hurricane eyewalls. Sixteen different USVs intercepted tropical storms and hurricanes a total of 26 times, all with sustained wind measurements of at least tropical storm force (34 kt). Four USVs measured sustained hurricane-force winds (64+ kt) in the eyewalls of Hurricanes Sam (2021), Fiona (2022), Idalia (2023), and Lee (2023). An important advantage of the USVs compared to other observing platforms is that they can be actively steered into the paths of hurricanes and record data continuously during eyewall transects, enabling new insights into air-sea interaction processes in extreme conditions. This presentation gives an overview of the key observations and scientific results from the 2021-2023 missions. Direct measurements of the air-sea momentum flux and drag coefficient (Cd) from the USVs’ 20-Hz wind data show a distinct peak in Cd at wind speeds of around 40-50 kt and then a decrease and leveling off as winds approach 80 kt. These results extend findings from previous studies with direct covariance flux measurements, which were limited to winds of less than 50 kt. Measurements from the USVs also show diminished surface ocean cooling under the cores of Hurricanes Sam and Idalia due to strong upper-ocean salinity stratification, emphasizing the importance of salinity observations in the western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico for potential improvements in hurricane intensity prediction.