bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The prevalence of surgical sterilization in a suburban population
Authors: Phillips Nancy
Published: March 2007

This report presents data on the prevalence of tubal ligations, vasectomies and remedial sterilizing operations among white couples, with wife aged 20–54, who subscribe to a pre-paid medical care program and live in a suburban area near San Francisco. Contraceptive operations, more than two-thirds of which were male vasectomies, were found among 23 per cent of these couples. Some form of sterilizing surgery (contraceptive or remedial) was found among 31 per cent. The prevalence of surgical sterilization, specifically vasectomies, in this population is high compared with that found across the nation or in the Western states in the 1965 National Fertility Study. Variations in the prevalence of tubal ligations and vasectomies by parity, education and religion are described. Their prevalence increases with the parity of the wife, has a marked inverse relationship with education, and is highest when neither husband nor wife is Catholic.
Plans for the 1971 census of Canada
Authors: Beynon T. G. , Joshi G. B. , Pierre–Pierre F. K.
Published: March 2007

This article describes the plans which have been developed for the Census of Canada to be taken June 1, 1971. One of the most important features of this census will be the use of the Self-enumeration technique for the great majority of respondents. Other topics touched upon include the User Liaison Programme which established requirements, the Testing Programme which determined the methodology and some highlights of the Data Collection and Processing Phases of the operation. There is a brief discussion of the use of sampling in 1971 with particular emphasis on the benefits to be derived in increased quality and reliability of data, increased timeliness and reduction in respondent burden. The Quality Control procedures are described. The Post-censal Evaluation and Data Dissemination programmes are also dealt with.
An empirical study of the effects of socioeconomic development on fertility rates
Authors: Janowitz Barbara S.
Published: March 2007

Recent studies by Adelman and by Friedlander and Silver, which have investigated whether regression equations derived from cross-section data can be used to predict the impact of socioeconomic development on changing levels of fertility, are reviewed critically. Regression analyses based on data for 57 countries c. 1960 show that fertility (gross reproduction rate) varies cross-sectionally with region as well as with level of development (as measured by per capita income, percent labor force in primary sector, expectation of life, illiteracy rate). Using equations derived from the cross-section study and time-series data for five European countries during the period that their fertility rates fell, it is shown that predictions about past fertility changes are in error. The results suggest caution in the use of cross-section relations to predict the course of fertility in developing countries.
Estimation of contraceptive continuation functions
Authors: Kelly William J.
Published: March 2007

Evidence from Puerto Rico supports the hypothesis that the continuation rate has a decay form rather than a reciprocal form. As indicated in the literature, there was evidence that the continuation rate tends to vary not only with time but also with the age of the patient at acceptance. It was found that the fit of the continuation function could be improved substantially by making the effective decay rate an exponential function of age. Theoretical reasoning was presented to justify these empirical results.
A stochastic approach to the estimation of the prevalence of IUD: Example of Taiwan, Republic of China
Authors: Liu P. T. , Chow L. P.
Published: March 2007

Assuming three patterns of changes in number of new IUD insertions, three stochastic models have been developed for the estimation of the “prevalence” of IUD in situ at a given point of time. The advantages of these models, compared with the conventional ways of estimating IUD prevalence, rest with their ease of use and simplicity of method for calculating variances of the estimates. The models are also useful for family planning administrators to set program targets. A correction factor to estimate the number of IUDs which, although “currently in situ,” are worn by women who have “passed over” the upper age limit of their reproductive spans has also been developed. This is particularly useful in estimating the “effective retention” of IUD.
Residence background, socioeconomic status, and fertility
Authors: Ritchey P. Neal , Stokes C. Shannon
Published: March 2007

Previous research has demonstrated that socioeconomic differentials in fertility are heavily influenced by couples with rural background. These studies show an inverse relationship between fertility and socioeconomic status for couples of rural background, but no relationship for urbanorigin couples. The effect of urban background on rural fertility differentials has not been examined. This study investigates the potential effect of urban-origin couples on socioeconomic differences in fertility in rural areas. Data from the 1967 Survey of Economic Opportunity are analyzed to show that rural socioeconomic fertility differences are not influenced by the presence of persons of urban background.
Education, health and family size as determinants of labor market activity for the poor and nonpoor
Authors: Hill C. Russell
Published: March 2007

The effect of head’s and wife’s educational attainment, health and the number of the head’s dependents under 18 on the amount of time spent in the labor force by white and black male heads of both poor and nonpoor families is investigated in this paper. The technique employed is multivariate regression analysis using disaggregated data from the 1967 Survey of Economic Opportunity. While educational attainment has a positive effect on the supply of labor of nonpoor heads, it has an insignificant effect on the black poor and a nonlinear effect on white poor heads. The health of head and wife has a very important effect on the ability of the poor to supply labor services while for the nonpoor the health effect is insignificant. For both the poor and nonpoor, there is a positive relationship between family size and the supply of labor. Evidence is also presented to indicate that the black husband’s and wife’s labor market activity are substitutes while they are complementary within white families.
Interpersonal communication and the diffusion of family planning in West Malaysia
Authors: Palmore James A. , Hirsch Paul M. , bin Marzuki Ariffin
Published: March 2007

Using data from a 1966–1967 probability sample of West Malaysian married women 15–44 years of age, this paper analyzes the characteristics of women who were active in diffusing information about family planning. The woman’s age and her parity, her educational attainment, her race, her present residence (urban-rural), and whether or not she wanted more children were significantly related to opinion leadership in bivariate tables. However, these relationships appeared to be substantial mainly because these social and demographic characteristics were highly related to whether the woman participated in discussions about family planning with other women. Among women who did participate in such discussions, the social and demographic variables were not substantially related to opinion leadership. In fact, the critical variables for opinion leadership appeared to be participation in the discussions, greater knowledge of family planning, and a higher level of family planning use. An attempt is also made to assess the effect of interpersonal communication on the adoption of family planning among women in the sample.
Tobacco smoking and the sex mortality differential
Authors: Retherford Robert D.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the effects of tobacco smoking on the sex mortality differential in the United States. It is found that all forms of smoking combined account for about 47 percent of the female-male difference in 50e37 (life expectancy between ages 37 and 87) in 1962,and about 75 percent of the increase in the female-male difference in 50e37over the period 1910–62. When these percentage effects of smoking are decomposed each into a sum of contributions by age and immediate medical cause of death, the degenerative diseases acting at the older ages are found to be of primary importance. The above results appear in large part to explain why the degenerative diseases also account for most of the 1910–65 increase in the female-male difference in life expectancy at birth. The analysis assumes that spurious effects due to the correlation of tobacco consumption with other mortality-related factors are small compared to the causal effects of tobacco consumption itself.
Residence background, migration, and fertility
Authors: Ritchey P. Neal , Stokes C. Shannon
Published: March 2007

This paper attempts to clarify confusion concerning residence background and migration, and to demonstrate that each of these factors exerts an independent effect on fertility. Basic premises underlying the direction of the effect of these variables on fertility are examined. Data from the 1967 Survey of Economic Opportunity indicate that migration and residence background do have independent effects. It is concluded that present generalizations as to the direction of their influence should be submitted to closer scrutiny with additional data in the future. In addition, an index of rural exposure is developed to test the proposition that fertility varies directly with degree of rural experience. The data only partially support this hypothesis. Moreover, rural-to-urban migrants are found to have only slightly higher fertility than the receiving urban-origin population.
Maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters of a continuous time model for first conception
Authors: Singh S. N. , Bhaduri T.
Published: March 2007

The duration of time between two successive births or between marriage and first birth is an indicator of the level of fertility of a couple. Potter and Parker (1964) and Singh (1961, 1967) have suggested the Type I Geometric as a distribution appropriate for representing the length of interval to first conception leading to a live birth. Potter and Parker estimated the parameters of this distribution with the help of the first two moments. Majumdar and Sheps (1970) pointed out the limitations of these moment estimates and gave a method to obtain maximum likelihood estimates, based on formulas which are too involved for solution without the help of a computer.

Singh proposed a continuous probability distribution based on another set of assumptions for the above situation. He outlined a method to obtain best asymptotically normal estimates of the parameters. These estimates are obtained after several iterations starting from any set of consistent estimates.

The objective of this paper is to show that it is relatively easier to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of the continuous model, which describes the data on duration to first conception as well as does the discrete model. Simple expressions for the moment and maximum likelihood estimates with the corresponding covariance matrices are obtained. Application is made to three sets of data.
Determinants of male labor mobility
Authors: Pursell Donald E.
Published: March 2007

This study is concerned with male labor mobility in 84 urban labor markets. Mobility studies have frequently used employment variables to approximate differential labor demands and to explain mobility. It would seem that supply factors, as well as demand factors, could exert an influence on mobility. To assess the influence of supply factors, new labor force entrants and withdrawals, along with labor demand variables, were regressed against gross in- and out-migration rates.

The results confirmed the hypothesis that labor mobility is substantially influenced by the economic and demographic characteristics of the urban labor market. Higher rates of in-migration were found in regions with higher rates of new employment opportunities. Where the demographic characteristics of the labor market result in larger labor supplies, out-migration rates were found to be higher and in-migration rates lower. Labor seems quite sensitive to differential labor market conditions and would appear to flow toward markets where an economic advantage lies. One interesting interpretation of the negative association between in-migration and wages is that employment opportunities may expand more rapidly in low-wage sectors, perhaps in the nonmanufacturing sector, thereby providing job opportunities which attract labor into the region.
Impact of population changes on education cost
Authors: Arriaga Eduardo E.
Published: March 2007

This paper has two principal aims: (1) to analyze and measure how the demographic variables—mortality, fertility, and im migration—affect the cost of education; (2) to evaluate what possibilities developing countries, such as those of Latin America, have for a rapid educational improvement.

The paper relates demographic and educational variables of three different populations: Sweden, 1840–1965; the United States, 1850–1960; and Latin America, 1930–2000. Three educational variables are also considered: (a) school attendance rates by sex and age; (b) distribution of students of same age by grade; and (c) cost of student by grade.

Demographic changes in countries such as Sweden and the United States were favorable for the development of education. For the future, unless an increase of fertility occurs, mortality and fertility changes will not have a significant effect on the cost of education in these countries. In current less developed countries the demographic changes during the past were less favorable to educational development. A future reduction of fertility will significantly help them to achieve a higher educational level.
A systems model for the population renewal process
Authors: Bongaarts John P. , O'Neill William D.
Published: March 2007

A synthetic cohort of women is followed from birth through childbearing age. The transition from parity i to parity i + 1 is quantitatively described utilizing systems analysis theory. This description results in a parametrization of the renewal process in which the net maternity function is completely determined by five parameters: maturation time, 0th parity time constant, survival fraction to 0th parity, average child spacing time, and parity progression ratio. To detect trends in these parameters, estimates are made of them for the U. S. A. population from 1950 to 1965.
The interaction of migration, income, and employment in Sweden
Authors: Dahlberg Åke , Holmlund Bertil
Published: March 2007

A common approach in migration studies is to explain interregional migration by single-equation models. Such models are likely to suffer from simultaneous-equation bias when used in studies attempting to analyze migration over a long period of time. In this study, a simultaneous-equation approach is applied, which takes account of the interdependence between migration and income and employment changes. The four-equation model is estimated for 70 labor market areas in Sweden.
Fertility and land availability in rural Brazil
Authors: Merrick Thomas W.
Published: March 2007

Differences between the marital fertility of the agricultural frontier and that of the more settled rural areas of southern Brazil are analyzed in this paper. Fertility rates derived from 1970 census data appear to decrease as the degree of settlement increases, suggesting an experience parallel to the decline in U.S. rural fertility in the late nineteenth century, which Easterlin and others have attributed to increased scarcity of land for starting new farm households. Multivariate analysis of the Brazilian data shows parallels between the two situations but also reveals that the importance of literacy, child survival, and access to land is relatively greater than that of the availability of land for explaining fertility differentials in Brazil.
Contextual and ideological dimensions of attitudes toward discretionary abortion
Authors: Singh B. Krishna , Leahy Peter J.
Published: March 2007

This study examines the contextual and ideological dimensions of attitudes toward discretionary abortion using two national surveys. The abortion attitudes are dichotomized in terms of consistent opposition versus consistent support. Discriminant analysis, partial correlations, and stepwise regression procedures are used in the analysis. Findings indicate that education and attendance at religious services are the two most significant contextual dimensions and sexual permissiveness and fertility ideology are the two most significant ideological dimensions for explaining attitudes toward discretionary abortion. Implications of these findings are discussed.
An estimate of a rare population group: The U.S. Jewish population
Authors: Lazerwitz Bernard
Published: March 2007

High, middle, and low estimates for a rare population group, the Jewish population of the United States, are presented together with their root mean square errors. These estimates are based upon a national sample whose essential survey design features are outlined. The features indicate that difficult-to-find populations can be sampled in adequate numbers if some sort of a list can be developed with a fair proportion of the population. To this list must be added an integrated area sampl
Contraceptive sterilization in the U. S.: 1965 and 1970
Authors: Bumpass Larry L. , Presser Harriet B.
Published: March 2007

There was an impressive increase between 1965 and 1970 in the prevalence of contraceptive sterilization, an increase that accelerated in the later years of the period and was shared in by virtually all subgroups considered. Among couples in 1970 for whom sterilization had been an option (recognizing that it is a terminal method), about one of every five had chosen this method of contraception. About half of all sterilizations were vasectomies, though vasectomies have outnumbered tubal ligations in recent years. Differentials in prevalence and in increases during 1965–1970 are reported for a number of life-cycle and social variables. In addition, a profile of the contraceptive sterile is presented for recent sterilizations. Significant proportions are relatively young and of low parity at the time of sterilization. In the context of the continued diffusion of the pill and IUD and increases in legal abortion, the net demographic effect of increasing sterilization is regarded as low, though sterilization is an important component of an effective fertility control regime.
Asymptotic implications of fluctuating nuptiality and fertility considering both sexes together
Authors: Lee Che-Fu
Published: March 2007

In this paper we have suggested a procedure of measuring population change which takes into account fluctuating sequences of nuptiality and fertility schedules as they reflect a population’s response pattern to its changing socioeconomic conditions. Through numerical experiments, the two-sex population model of cyclical change, which considers the interaction between sexes through marriage, is seen to converge to an asymptotic stability. The advantage of such a convergence is to enable comparative investigations, in terms of a set of asymptotic parameters, of rather complex series of nuptiality and fertility changes and their implications for short-run oscillation in population structure as well as for long-run population growth.
The fallacy of the five million women: A re-estimate
Authors: Blake Judith , Das Gupta Prithwis
Published: March 2007

Explicit policy to control fertility in the United States to date has focussed on the “unmet need” for contraceptive services in 1966 among an estimated five million poor and near-poor women. This paper reestimates the number of women in need of contraceptive services by disaggregating (on the basis of tabulations from the Current Population Surveys for 1966 and 1967, and the 1965 National Fertility Study) all poor and near-poor women into 54 subgroups differentiated by age, marital status, religion, and color. Data from the 1965 National Fertility Study, and from other studies, are then used to estimate for each subgroup deductions for sterility, pregnancy, waiting time for conception, and negative attitudes toward and current use of contraception. The residual number of women who both want and require contraceptive services, but do not have them, is estimated to be 1.2 million, rather than 4.6 million. The fact that the re-estimate takes into account both existing contraceptive practice and negative attitudes toward family limitation accounts for much of the difference between it and the original figure.
Model life tables: An empirical test of their applicability to less developed countries
Authors: Adlakha Arjun
Published: March 2007

Model life tables are commonly used for estimating various parameters of mortality of populations in developing countries with limited data. The application of the models is based on the assumption that the agemortality pattern of the population under consideration resembles one of the life tables in the models. The analysis in this paper tests the validity of this assumption for developing countries with data usable for the purpose. The major conclusion is that infant mortality in the populations analyzed is higher than predicted by the models corresponding to the levels of adult mortality of these populations. The observed discrepancy is ascribed to the selectivity involved in the construction of model life tables, which are primarily derived from the historical experience of Western countries. Populations in the currently developing countries apparently differ in the process of mortality change from those used in the models. Though the analysis is limited to a few countries and may not necessarily be true for all the less developed countries, it suggests the need for caution in the use of conventional model life tables.
Methods for measuring school performance through cohort analysis
Authors: Légaré Jacques
Published: March 2007

In order to evaluate the main educational characteristics of a grade cohort—which are the proportion of those who get a degree, the average time spent in school and finally the mean educational attainment of the cohort—we present a school system in which repeat enrolments are well identified. In this discrete model, we present, for each grade, three transition coefficients: the proportion of those passing to the next grade, the proportion of those repeating the grade and the proportion of those leaving the school system. Afterwards, we set up a system of equations leading to the distribution of the entrants in the cohort according to the levels of their educational attainment, a system of equations for which a simple solution will depend on two assumptions.
Forecasting first grade public school enrollment by neighborhood
Authors: Fabricant Ruth , Weinman Janice
Published: March 2007

The purpose of this study is to develop an alternative method to the traditional cohort survival technique for long-run forecasting of public school enrollment by small area. In the model presented, the difference between first grade enrollment and resident births lagged six years is viewed as a function of new housing, busing, and the percent of lagged births that are white. Least squares regression analysis was used to test the model on data in four neighborhoods in New York City for the period 1958–1969. While the model fits the historical data rather well, its usefulness for long-run forecasting is diminished in areas experiencing substantial structural change.
The precision of population projections studied by multiple prediction methods
Authors: Schweder Tore
Published: March 2007

A population projection is a prediction of a random vector variable XT. which represents the size and age/sex distribution of the population in year T. The population is assumed to be closed and to develop according to fixed and known schedules of birth and death probabilities as a multitype branching process. The precision of the usual projection eT(= EXT) is studied by a family of prediction intervals of linear functions of the vector of deviations XT — eT, which has a preassigned probability level. This family is obtained by a multi-normal approximation and an argument similar to the one leading to Scheffé's method of multiple comparison. From the family of prediction intervals, an upper limit of the total absolute deviation Σ |XiT − eiT| is obtained, and the ratio of this limit to the projected total population is proposed as a measure of the relative precision of the projection. For a numerical study, Norwegian population data is used.
Redistribution and assimilation of ethnic populations: The Los Angeles case
Authors: Van Arsdol Maurice D. , Schuerman Leo A.
Published: March 2007

Redistribution relative to metropolitan growth of Negro, other non-white and Spanish name populations is examined in Los Angeles County from 1940 to 1960 for a comparable grid of subareas. The subareas are defined relative to their maturity at different time points in order to partially control for population redistribution effects of neighborhood life histories, the spread of older subareas, and the persistence of neighborhood patterns. Shifts in ethnic concentration are shown for both older and newer subareas. Concurrent changes in neighborhood social structures and ethnic populations are described. Findings are categorized under three themes: First, ethnic population increments and redistribution were generally restricted to expanding older subareas. Ethnic populations did not spatially expand at a rate equal to the spread of the metropolis or of older subareas. Second, segregation is greater in both older and newer neighborhoods for Negroes than for other ethnic populations. Negroes experienced the largest proportional increments in both older and newer subareas, as well as the greatest stability in subarea occupancy. Finally, the spatial separation of ethnic populations impedes assimilation in that unique patterns of neighborhood structure come to characterize different ethnic populations, and changes in ethnic composition are reflected in changes in neighborhood social structures.
Use of a fertility simulation model to refine measurement techniques
Authors: Barrett J. C.
Published: March 2007

A stochastic model involving the recurrent events (births, foetal deaths, etc.) associated with human reproduction is defined. Its simulation by means of a Monte Carlo program is described. The model is used to investigate the role of chance in producing biases in certain demographic measurements, particularly as regards the estimation of sterility, foetal death and stillbirth ratios, and birth intervals.
A model to estimate births averted due to IUCDs and sterilizations
Authors: Venkatacharya K.
Published: March 2007

The computation of births averted due to a specific family planning programme requires special treatment instead of application of the usual population projection technique using conventional fertility rates. The reason for this is that adopters of a family planning method are a selective group from the general population with respect to a number of demographic and biological characteristics, including the initial susceptibility status at the time of adoption. In the present paper a matrix of annual birth probabilities specific to age at adoption of a method and duration since adoption is obtained. One matrix is presented for adopters of IUCD, another for salpingectomy, and a third for vasectomy. These matrices are used to obtain estimates of births averted for India due to IUCDs and sterilizations performed during 1956–69. The results are compared with those that could have been obtained by using the usual age-specific marital fertility rates under identical conditions, except for initial susceptibility. The entire work is programmed on a high speed electronic computer.
A model for estimating fecundability of the currently married woman from the data on her susceptibility status—A cohort approach
Authors: Pathak K. B.
Published: March 2007

A probability model to estimate fecundability of a married woman has been proposed under some mild assumptions. It utilises the knowledge on the susceptibility status of the married women (including menstruation, menopause, pregnancy and amenorrhea) and therefore sets another approach for estimating fecundability. In addition, it is capable of predicting the parity, proportion of foetal losses, fecundability and incidence of secondary sterility. The problem of finding out the consistent estimates of the parameters in the distribution is discussed in section 4. For illustra-tion, the model is applied to a set of simulated data after simplifying many assumptions of the model
A new method for estimating the level of natural fertility in populations practicing birth control
Authors: Espenshade Thomas J.
Published: March 2007

The natural fertility schedule of a population is the schedule of age-specific marital fertility we would observe if no birth control were being practiced. In natural fertility (no birth control) populations we can observe the natural fertility schedule directly, but in populations practicing birth control the natural fertility schedule is disguised by the marital fertility rates in those age intervals in which control is exercised, the marital fertility rates being below the natural rates. This paper elaborates a method for estimating the natural fertility schedules of populations practicing birth control. Two alternative models are presented, one nonlinear and one linear. The use of these models is then illustrated with reference to the Old Order Amish population of Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. It is shown that for Amish women born between 1860 and 1900 both the nonlinear and linear models yield an estimate of .843 as the ratio between Amish and Hutterite natural fertility schedules.
Can we Believe Recent Data on Birth Expectations in the United States?
Authors: Blake Judith
Published: March 2007

A share of the recent decline in birth expectations of young American wives may be due to the historically unique stimulus of intense public attention to population growth and family size. Data on whites from numerous national surveys provide at least four types of evidence favoring this thesis: a sudden massing of responses in the two-child category (the ZPG formula); a tolerance for the large family; an aversion to childlessness and the one-child family; and an inconsistency between respondents’ evaluations of the family cycle and childspacing, on the one hand, and their personal acceptance of the two-child norm, on the other. The lack of congruence in American reproductive attitudes at present suggests that some conservatism might be wise in accepting current birth expectations as valid indicators of the long-run intentions of youthful cohorts.
Which Couples at Given Parities Expect to have Additional Births? An Exercise in Discriminant Analysis
Authors: Namboodiri N. Krishnan
Published: March 2007

Do couples at given parities who expect to have additional births differ on selected characteristics from their counterparts who do not expect to have any more children? This question is examined herein focusing attention on the wife’s age, age at marriage, religion, and education and the husband’s education and income. The method used is the discriminant-function analysis. The data are from the 1965 U. S. National Fertility Study. The combined discriminatory power of the social and economic background characteristics examined herein has been found to be greater at higher parities than at lower ones, while the opposite is true of demographic characteristics.
The Initiation of Contraception
Authors: Rindfuss Ronald , Westoff Charles F.
Published: March 2007

Using data from the 1970 National Fertility Study, the trend in the initiation of contraception prior to the first pregnancy is examined. This trend is of interest because of its relationship to the tempo of familybuilding. Using data from a recent marriage cohort, it is shown that use before the first pregnancy is related to age at marriage, age at termination of first pregnancy and the probability of having a premarital conception. For women first married during the decade of the 1960’s, there was a substantial increase in the proportion using contraception before the first pregnancy. This trend is found among both white Catholics and white non-Catholics, but not among blacks. An examination of the specific method used by women using contraception before the first pregnancy reveals a shift from reliance on the traditional methods of diaphragm, condom and douche by the earlier birth cohorts to the use of the pill by the more recent cohorts. An appendix examines the reliability of various measures of the interval of first use of contraception.
Sex Ratio at Birth: Values, Variance, and Some Determinants
Authors: Markle Gerald E.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the values, variance and some possible determinants of sex ratios for the first child and for all children in expected and desired families. For adults in Tallahassee, Florida, it was found that a large majority of respondents within sixty demographic categories chose males for their first child. Of those who actually had girls for their first child, a plurality would, nevertheless, prefer a first boy in their desired family. It was hypothesized and demonstrated that sex-role ideologies were a strong predictor of variance in first-child sex preferences. Sex ratios for all children in expected and desired families were 116 and 113, respectively. If people could choose the sex of their future children, these data suggest that several population parameters might be significantly altered; a preliminary model is outlined which might project some of these changes.
Using Gross Migration Data Compiled from the Social Security Sample File
Authors: Renshaw Vernon
Published: March 2007

A study by Donald Pursell (1972), which examines migration data compiled from the one-percent sample file of the Social Security Administration, is discussed in this paper. An important feature of the data which is neglected by Pursell is pointed out, and the Pursell results are compared with findings obtained using somewhat different treatments of the social security data. The Pursell conclusion that out-migration is negatively related to employment growth is supported by the alternative tests.
Mass immigration and population dynamics in israel
Authors: Friedlander Dov
Published: March 2007

Israel, in her 25 years of existence, received an unprecedented volume of immigration, which was the major source of her high population growth. This immigration was heavily concentrated in the first five years, 1948–1952; mass immigration of 711,000 supplemented an initial population of 630,000. Subsequently, since 1952, a very peculiar age-sex structure has developed: namely, instead of a pyramid, a wide rectangle for the younger age groups “topped” with a narrow pyramid for the older age groups. The peculiar age-sex dynamics is analyzed in relation to the volume of immigration with its uneven time distribution, the age selectivity of migrants and fertility-mortality patterns of migrants. It is concluded that the uneven time distribution of immigration and the higher fertility of migrants are jointly responsible for the development of Israel’s peculiar age dynamics, and that the absence of either of these two factors alone would eliminate it. The peculiar dynamics has societal implications in the short and the long run, some of which are discussed.
Social security and fertility: An international perspective
Authors: Hohm Charles F.
Published: March 2007

A number of population scholars have asserted that social security programs such as old-age programs lead to decreased fertility levels because parents need not rely on children for “security” in old age. There is, however, a paucity of empirical data on the above. This paper analyzes 67 countries and shows that social security programs have a measureable negative effect on subsequent levels of fertility. In fact, the social security programs appear to have as much of an independent impact on fertility as do the traditional correlates of fertility (infant mortality, education and per capita income).
Childhood Mortality, Family Size and Birth Order in Pre-Industrial Europe
Authors: Cohen Joel E.
Published: March 2007

Based on parish registers, demographic histories of Crulai (France), Tourouvre-au-Perche (France), and Geneva (Switzerland) established the childhood mortality experienced by complete sibships during periods of at least half a century before the French revolution. These observations may be presented as frequencies in incomplete five-dimensional contingency tables. The five dimensions are: survival (living or dead), completed sibship size, birth order, type of family (according to completeness of information about family), and epoch (period in which the family lived).

This paper reanalyzes these published data, using hierarchical log-linear models to discern which interactions among the five variables can justifiably be inferred from the data. The neonatal and infant mortality rates of firstborn are probably higher than those of later sibs (in Crulai and Tourouvre). But mortality by age 20 (in Geneva) is associated strongly with the epoch, type of family, and family size, and not significantly with birth order. The increase in mortality with completed family size is insufficient to select, in an evolutionary sense, for limited family size.
Measuring Change in Sex Composition
Authors: Norland Joseph A.
Published: March 2007

The present paper deals with changes over time in the sex composition of a given population. Such changes are generated by the components of population change: natality, mortality, immigration and emigration. The objective of this paper is to propose a model which provides a quantitative statement concerning the effect of each such component on the change in the sex composition of the population. It is shown that the model is applicable to the measurement of sex composition by either the masculinity proportion or the sex ratio. To demonstrate the application of the proposed model, an example based on Canadian data is given.
The Welfare Effect of an Additional Child Cannot be Stated Simply and Unequivocally
Authors: Simon Julian L.
Published: March 2007

There is no single calculable welfare effect of an additional person. Rather, there are many different judgments, which may be negative or positive. The welfare effect depends upon the particular economic situation the child will be born into, which point in his life-cycle one refers to, whether he is expected to have a positive effect upon his particular sort of economy and society during and after his lifetime, and most of all, on the kind of welfare criterion used. Furthermore, no matter which welfare criterion is used, the welfare effect of an added individual summarized over time is especially sensitive to the particular assumptions made.
Competition Between Spontaneous and Induced Abortion
Authors: Potter R. G. , Ford K. , Moots B.
Published: March 2007

Because of their similar timing in pregnancy, spontaneous and induced abortions can be viewed as competing outcomes. Some intended abortion operations are anticipated by earlier miscarriages while some potential miscarriages are forestalled by earlier deliberate interruptions of pregnancy. Previous treatments of this competition are reviewed, and a new analysis is made on the basis of New York data. A simple rule for approximating the reduction in apparent incidence of spontaneous abortion in the presence of induced abortion is presented. The effects of nonreporting and misreporting of pregnancy outcomes upon this rule are examined by means of the Perrin-Sheps renewal process. Two expectations are tested on Taiwanese data.
The effects of formal church affiliation and religiosity on the fertility patterns of Mexican-American catholics
Authors: Alvírez David
Published: March 2007

The effects of religion on the fertility patterns of Mexican Americans are examined with two different path models, the Institutional Model using formal affiliation with the Roman Catholic Church as a measure of religion, and the Religiosity Model using a measure of religiosity. Each model, tested separately for husbands and wives, examines the effects of religion on types of contraceptive methods used and on wanted family size. Although the majority of Mexican Americans are Catholics and tend to have large families, religion does not seem to have the same effect on their fertility patterns as on that of other Catholics in the United States. Among the men, neither formal affiliation nor religiosity affect the fertility patterns in any way, while among the women the effect is slight. Considering the Catholic Church’s position on contraceptive usage, it is especially noteworthy that religion does not affect the use or non-use of the more effective means of contraception, a factor contributing to the generally weak association between the measures of religion and wanted family size. The last section attempts a partial explanation of why the results turned out as they did.
Fertility and economic dependency of Soviet women
Authors: Mazur D. Peter
Published: March 2007

The study addresses itself to the question: If it can be shown that economic dependency of women is not associated with fertility, then what are the variables that favor their abstention from work outside home? Results based on an extensive statistical analysis of Soviet data bring into focus new evidence. It was found thateconomic dependency of women is associated with themarriage differential between sexes. This relationship is especially evident in the regions where birth rates are of a low order. In the geographic areas where fertility is high, the percentage of economically inactive women increases with an increase in the urban population portion in an administrative area. Five principal components of urbanization have been identified: (1) educational level, (2) increasing rates of marriage, (3) divorce, (4) equal educational status of women as compared with men, and (5) the rising proportion of economically dependent women in the 16–54 age span. Most of the data are based on the 1959 Census and vital statistics by administrative areas for the U. S. S. R. For analytic purposes these were sorted into 30 areas of low birth rates, 62 areas with moderate rates, and 48 administrative areas corresponding to the high-fertility region in the Caucasus, Central Asia, and in several autonomous non-Slav republics.
Birth control, income redistribution, and the rate of saving: The case of Mexico
Authors: Isbister John
Published: March 2007

If different groups of people in a low-income society save at different average rates, a program of birth control may affect the aggregate rate of saving by changing the relative shares of income accruing to these groups. A model is outlined in which this process occurs. The only group that saves is profit recipients; peasants and secondary sector employees consume all their income. A decline in fertility leads to a lower demand for food and a lower price of food. This results in a lower money supply price of labor in the secondary sector, and hence greater profits and greater saving. On the other hand, a fertility decline may eventually produce a higher real standard of living among rural workers, hence a higher supply price of secondary sector labor, lower profits and lower saving. These effects are investigated in a simulation of Mexican economic growth with (a) constant high fertility and (b) a declining birth rate such as might occur if a successful national birth control program were instituted. The birth control program results in a higher rate of aggregate saving over the first several decades, and eventually a lower rate of saving once a higher standard of living has been attained.
An exponential model of female sterility
Authors: Pittenger Donald B.
Published: March 2007

It is suggested that a useful component of a fertility simulation would be proportions of females sterile by age. Data on this phenomenon are rather limited, but they indicate that proportional sterility may not easily be described by a simple function. We propose that rates of becoming sterile may be adequately described by an exponential function utilizing proper parameter values. Such exponential-model rates form the basis for computation of a fecundity decrement table presented in this paper. Sterility proportions from the table are compared to some empirical data.
The influence of women’s work opportunities on marriage rates
Authors: Preston Samuel H. , Richards Alan Thomas
Published: March 2007

Several authors have argued that increased work opportunities for women have helped to produce a reduction in the average age at marriage in the United States. This paper tests this proposition on data for the 100 largest SMSA’s in 1960. Using ordinary least-squares regression, we find that areas of relatively attractive female employment opportunities had relatively low proportions of women ever married in the age interval 22–24. Other variables significantly related to the proportion married in an SMSA are its sex ratio, percent Catholic, and number of inhabitants. A decline in the sex ratio and improvements in female employment opportunities appear to have been equally influential in producing declines in proportions married between 1960 and 1970.
California’s experience with non-adversary divorce
Authors: Schoen Robert , Greenblatt Harry N. , Mielke Robert B.
Published: March 2007

California’s Family Law Act of 1969, effective January 1, 1970, instituted non-adversary proceedings for divorce, suggested a more equal division of community property and reduced the minimum waiting time for a final divorce decree. A rapid increase in the number of divorces granted in California followed. Analysis revealed that the 1969 Law did not lead to any real increase in marital dissolution among Californians or produce any significant changes in the characteristics of the population filing for divorce. What was seen were certain modifications in behavior on the part of divorcing persons to take advantage of the Law’s new provisions.
Puzzles and further explorations in the interrelationships of successive births with husband’s income, spouses’ education and race
Authors: Simon Julian L.
Published: March 2007

When fertility is examined in the detail of individual parity progressions and birth-order transitions, important interactions between the effects of income and education are seen. Among the findings are: the negative effect of education on fertility is stronger at all parities for less educated compared to more highly educated women. Additional income has a more positive effect for more highly educated than for less educated women. For women with 0–8 years of education the effect of more income is positive when the family has no children but negative thereafter, but for college-educated women the effect of more income is positive. And additional income has a less positive (more negative) effect on fertility among nonwhites than among whites.
Estimates of fecundability from a truncated distribution of conception times
Authors: Suchindran C. M. , Lachenbruch P. A.
Published: March 2007

A population consisting of women who have conceived before a time t ignores all women whose conception time exceeds t. Such a population is considered as a truncated population, and the samples are called truncated samples. Under the assumption that fecundability among women varies according to a Beta distribution (with parameters a and b), the distribution of conception times in a truncated population can be considered as truncated Type I geometric. This paper presents an algorithm to obtain the moment and maximum likelihood estimates of a and b from the truncated samples. Large sample properties of the estimators are also studied. Examples using the Hutterite and the Princeton Fertility Survey data are given.