Potential Impacts Of Aerosols and greenhouse gases&#160; On projected Extreme Precipitation Characteristics over East Asia in CMIP6 Model Simulation
Authors: Adigun Paul , Koji Dairaku 
Published: December 2021

&lt;p&gt;Precipitation extremes are anticipated to intensify across East Asia as a result of global warming, according to past evaluations of coupled climate models.&lt;br /&gt;Climate model results from Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were used to assess expected changes in precipitation extremes&lt;br /&gt;over EAST ASIA by the end of the twenty-first century. Changes in precipitation extremes are expected as a result of a reduction in aerosols and greenhouse gas (GHG)&amp;#160;&lt;br /&gt;emissions (as reflected by the most recent Shared Socioeconomic Pathways). &lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss733&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~0~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss734&quot;&gt;When&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss735&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~1~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss736&quot;&gt;aerosol&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss737&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~2~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss738&quot;&gt;levels&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss739&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~3~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss740&quot;&gt;are&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss741&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~4~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss742&quot;&gt;lowered,&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss743&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~5~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss744&quot;&gt;the&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss745&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~6~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss746&quot;&gt;distribution&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss747&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~7~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss748&quot;&gt;of&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss749&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~8~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss750&quot;&gt;precipitation&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss751&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~9~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss752&quot;&gt;means &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss753&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~10~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss754&quot;&gt;and&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss755&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~11~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss756&quot;&gt;extremes&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss757&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~12~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss758&quot;&gt;changes&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss759&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~13~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss760&quot;&gt;to&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss761&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~14~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss762&quot;&gt;larger&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0~14~1&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss763&quot;&gt;values.&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss686&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~1~0~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss688&quot;&gt;Reduced&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss689&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~1~1~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss690&quot;&gt;aerosol&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss691&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~1~2~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss692&quot;&gt;levels,&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss693&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~1~3~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss694&quot;&gt;for&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss695&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~1~4~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss696&quot;&gt;example,&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss697&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~1~5~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss698&quot;&gt;would&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss699&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~1~6~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss700&quot;&gt;raise&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~1~6~1&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss701&quot;&gt;the&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~1~6~2&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss702&quot;&gt;probability&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss703&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~1~7~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss704&quot;&gt;of&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot; jss685 jss705&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~1~8~0&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss706&quot;&gt;heavy&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~1~8~1&quot; class=&quot;jss687 jss707&quot;&gt;precipitation. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;article-sentence&quot; draggable=&quot;false&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~1&quot; class=&quot;jss673 jss675&quot;&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;The Significant variations in the frequency of days with extremely high rainfall (R20mm), the simple intensity of daily precipitation(SDII), Total Precipitation on Wet Day (PRCPTOT), Very wet days precipitation (R95pTOT) were accessed, to determine the magnitude to which aerosols and GHG are driving these changes. we evaluate the representation of extremes in future precipitation projection under different scenarios. Understanding the response to different global warming thresholds is essential for eliminating the uncertainties in East Asia climate projections&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&lt;span class=&quot;article-sentence&quot; draggable=&quot;false&quot;&gt;&lt;span id=&quot;editable-content-within-article~0&quot; class=&quot;jss673 jss674&quot;&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;