Static and Dynamic Uncertainty Management for Probabilistic Production Forecast in Chuchupa field, Colombia
Authors: Rivera N. , Meza N. S. , Kim J. S. , Clark P. A. , Garber R. , Fajardo A. , Peña V. 
Published: December 2007

Structural, stratigraphic, and petrophysical uncertainties result in a wide range of geologic interpretations. For fields with long production and pressure history, 3D-dynamic simulations have been very useful in providing feedback to geologic modelers, which results in improved static models.

The Chuchupa Field has produced 1.9 Tscf of dry gas, or approximately 40% of the Original Gas in Place (OGIP). At the time of this study, 3 new horizontal wells were being planned, and new gas sales agreements were being considered. We developed a dynamic workflow to create a range of probabilistic simulation models to forecast dry-gas production under several production scenarios in the Chuchupa field. Recent seismic re-interpretation, a new stratigraphic study and a revision of the petrophysical model resulted in new probabilistic static models for the field.

While these static models were being built, a parallel numerical simulation study was conducted to determine the range of OGIP values that could be successfully history-matched. Nine numerical reservoir models were generated by applying pore volume multipliers to the prior-generation reservoir model, yielding a range of OGIP from 3.8 to 6.6 Tscf. We attempted to history match each of these nine models by using an optimization routine to adjust aquifer support, vertical transmissibility across a potential seal, and rock compressibility. The optimization routine proved to be a very useful and efficient tool to attain good quality history matches in short periods of time. Good matches were obtained for models with OGIP ranging from 4.3 to 5.8 Tscf.

Based on this information, the geologic modelers revised petrophysical parameters and generated 27 static models. These models encompassed 3 structural interpretations, 3 porosity distributions, and 3 possible positions of gas/water contact (GWC). From experimental design we obtained the P10, P50, and P90 OGIP values of 4.1, 4.7, and 5.3 Tscf respectively.

We scaled up and built reservoir simulation models for 8 geologic interpretations to represent the range of OGIP and reservoir geometries. Again, these models were history matched using the optimization routine. The match parameters were static well pressures and the absence of water production. Six out of the eight the models could be satisfactorily history-matched with reasonable adjustments to aquifer strength, vertical transmissibility, and rock compressibility. The OGIP range for these models was 4.1 to 5.6 Tscf.

We selected 3 models to forecast future gas production. These models match the P10, P50, and P90 OGIP values determined in the probabilistic static model, and combine the low, mid, and high structures, porosity and Swi distributions, and the range of GWC positions. We also calibrated the various models with historical bottomhole and tubinghead flowing pressures, and coupled the reservoir model with a network consisting of surface lines and equipment; pipelines from two platforms to the onshore sale-point station; and multi-stage compression to 1,215 psia. The model is currently used to evaluate various production and market scenarios.