The mathematical model of the implementation effectiveness of projects to promote
the activities of non-profit organizations in the field of protection of the population
and territories
Authors:   All-Russian Scientific Research
            Institute for Civil Defense and Emergencies of the EMERCOM of Russia (Federal Science
            and High Technology Center), Zhukov Alexej Olegovich 
Published: December 2024

Introduction. The article is devoted to the urgent problem of mathematical
modeling of the effectiveness of the implementation of the federal project to promote
the activities of non–profit organizations in the field of protection of the population
and territories. Such modeling is important due to the fact that the federal project
under consideration is part of the state program for the protection of the population
and territories from emergency situations. The State program is an integral mechanism
for ensuring national security in the context of the implementation of the strategic
national priority "state and public safety", the purpose of which is to
protect the population and territories from emergency situations. Based on a systematic
analysis of the priority areas of activity of non–profit organizations determined on the
basis rules for granting subsidies, a system of efficiency criteria is proposed and an
appropriate mathematical model of the effectiveness of the implementation of the federal
project under consideration is developed. Goal and objectives of the work. The purpose
of the study is to build a mathematical model of the effectiveness of the implementation
of the federal project through a system of criteria characterizing the priority areas of
the Rules. To achieve this goal, the tasks of developing methods based on mathematical
and structural modeling; testing the proposed models on a demonstration example are
solved. Methods. In the course of the research, methods of quantitative and qualitative
analysis, methods of mathematical and structural modeling, computer modeling, as well as
a method for building a problem-oriented system based on a systematic approach,
including structural and system analysis, were applied. Results and discussion. The
mathematical model of the effectiveness of the implementation of the federal project is
proposed, based on a system of criteria defined on the basis of Rules. The proposed
model has shown its efficiency on a demonstration example, and therefore can be used in
organizing annual monitoring of the effectiveness of the implementation of a federal
project, dynamic comparison and competitive selection of the best organizations in order
to increase the effectiveness of the implementation of a federal project by more
rational allocation of subsidies from the federal budget to competing organizations.
Conclusions. A mathematical model of the effectiveness of the implementation of the
Federal Project has been developed, based on a system of criteria defined on the basis
of Rules. The proposed model can be used as one of the integral components of evaluating
the effectiveness of the implementation of the State Program as a mechanism for ensuring
national security in the framework of the implementation of the strategic national
priority "State and Public Safety". Keywords: management in organizational
systems; public administration; strategic planning; efficiency; federal project; state
program.