bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Larval pattern morphotypes in the Western Palaearctic Hyles euphorbiae complex (Lepidoptera: Sphingidae: Macroglossinae)
Authors: Mende Michael , Kitching Ian , Hundsdoerfer Anna , Harbich Heimo , Pittaway Anthony
Published: May 2011

External morphological variation in larval pattern elements in the Hyles euphorbiae complex is documented and described from independent samples of numerous populations across Europe and North Africa. Variability in the distribution of black cuticle and other colours was found to be much higher within populations than previously believed and it proved difficult to characterize any species, subspecies and even local population unequivocally using this feature alone. A representative sample of larvae from the Canary Islands, Madeira, North Africa, Iberia, Italy, Germany, Eastern Europe, Malta, Greece and Yemen, is illustrated, supplemented by observations from photographs of larvae from the Middle East and Western Asia. Taxonomy-independent definitions of larval morphotypes demonstrate significant overlap between species. We discuss the results in the context of Western Palaearctic biogeography, postulating several areas of hybridisation between the more northern Hyles euphorbiae and more southern H. tithymali that have led to the mosaic distribution patterns observed, and consider the potential of these moths for tracking the future eff ects of climate change in the Mediterranean Basin.
First fossil blood sucking Psychodidae in South America: a sycoracine moth fly (Insecta: Diptera) in the middle Miocene Amazonian amber
Authors: Petrulevičius Julian , Salas-Gismondi Rodolfo , Goillot  , Flynn John , Nel André , Antoine Pierre-Olivier , De Franceschi Dario
Published: May 2011

Sycorax peruensis sp.n. is the first blood sucking fossil Psychodidae in South America. The new species mainly differs from all recent Neotropical Sycoracinae in its number of antennal segments. It is described from the middle Miocene Western Amazonian amber, which included an intertropical entomofauna previous to the land connection with Central and North America that occurred in the latest MiocenePliocene. Insects from this material are diverse with normal bias for amber inclusions of Diptera and Hymenoptera and small-sized specimens.
An Outline of Social Enterprises*
Authors: Ming Wang , Xiaohong Zhu
Published: May 2011

After a review of the main academic research and perspectives on social enterprises both in China and abroad, a framework for understanding social enterprises is offered in summary. The framework has two dimensions: the social enterprise phenomenon and social enterprises’ characteristics. We also adopt three angles ‐ the public interest, markets, and culture ‐ from which to observe them. And we analyze them on four levels: market practices, public-interest innovations, policy support, and ideals and values. Upon these foundations, social enterprises can be defined as a form of enterprise somewhere between public-interest and for-profit enterprises, a product of the organic combination of the public interest and the market economy, and a kind of social organization combining properties and characteristics of NPOs and enterprises. As they develop, social enterprises in China have formed their own characteristics and specific models.
Division of Social Labor, Legal Classification, and the Welfare State: The Multi-Dimensional Nonprofit Sector
Authors: Ninghua Deng , Hui Luan
Published: May 2011

Current theories on nonprofits focus primarily on the situation in developed countries. By performing a systematic evaluation based on Salamon and Anheier’s theory of the “social origins of the nonprofit sector,” the writers posit that there exist structural differences between the nonprofit sectors in developed and developing countries. Moreover, the differences are determined by the social structures and social institutions in which nonprofit sectors are embedded. Important factors identified include division of labor in society, legal classifications, and the influence of the welfare state. The article describes the relationships between the state of the nonprofit sector and three factors: division of labor, legal classifications, and the welfare state.
A Study on NGO Accountability
Authors: Yong Li
Published: May 2011

In recent years NGO accountability has become a hotly discussed issue. This article analyzes NGO accountability: its definition, logics, and mechanisms. It also offers a basic view of NGO accountability and an account in which coupled rights and responsibilities are the way to society-building.
Key Factors for Establishing Collaboration between NPOs and the Government: A Case Study
Authors: Yanyan Li
Published: May 2011

Collaboration with the government is not just a key factor in the organizational growth of a single NPO, but a key issue influencing the development of the whole NPO sector. Especially in China, NPOs still remain weak even as they proliferate widely. The government has made clear its intention to change from a management-oriented government to service-oriented government. As one step in this direction, it has begun to procure social services from NPOs. However, it is still unclear how the approach of procuring services can become a regular form of collaboration between the government and NPOs and, as such, a driver of NPO growth. This paper analyzes the case of Shining Stone Community Action (SSCA). SSCA has successfully promoted its collaboration with the government and has realized the goal of the government purchasing its services. The paper examines various factors required for collaboration between NPOs and the government, with a special focus on those necessary for government procurement of NPO services to take place. These factors provide valuable lessons for building relationships between governments and NPOs. The paper closely examines three key factors: NPO expertise, communication between NPO leaders and government officials, and the presence of persons who understand both governmental and NPO systems profoundly.
Tradition and Innovation in the Fine Arts
Authors: Rapoport Alek
Published: May 2011

Since childhood, AR was attracted by art. His first teacher, E. Sagaidachny, was a former member of the nonconformist groups “Youth Union” and “The Donkey Tail”. Later, in Leningrad, AR enrolled in the V. Serov School of Art. In spite of official Socialist Realism, some teachers (Shablovsky, Gromov, Sudakov) introduced their students to Russian avant-garde. AR educated himself, copying the paintings of Old Masters in the Hermitage Museum. During 1959-1963 AR studied Russian Suprematism and Constructivism in the Leningrad's Institute for eater, Music and Cinema under the supervision of N. Akimov. AR considered himself as a follower of Russian Constructivism with the roots in ancient Mediterranean and Byzantine art. After graduating, AR's life was full of different activities. He preferred teaching at the V. Serov School of Art, but was fired for “ideological conspiracy” as a founder of the new courses – Technical Aesthetics, Yu. Lotman's eory of Semiotics and Russian Constructivism. In the 1970s AR became an active member of a nonconformist artist group TEV (Fellowship of the Experimental Exhibitions) and the co-founder of the ALEF group (Union of Leningrad's Jewish Artists). This activity brought close attention of KGB and he was forced to emigrate in 1976. Living in the USA, AR criticized American contemporary art for its un-spirituality, commercialism and rejection of traditions – a necessary basis of existence of art. He belonged to two traditional cultures, Jewish and Russian, and his art is traditional. His art represents his own thoughts turned into his paintings, with a great appreciation to discoveries of the Old Masters. And the circle is not closed.
Lost Chapters of John Milton's Moscovia
Authors: Dunning Chester
Published: May 2011

This article examines The Rarities of Russia, a long overlooked pamphlet describing Russian commodities that was published in London in 1662, and argues that it was ghostwritten by the great poet and pamphleteer John Milton at a time when he lived in fear of assassination and was forbidden to publish anything due to his past support of the English Revolution and his service as Oliver Cromwell's Latin Secretary. The pamphlet appears to consist of previously unknown chapters of Milton's Moscovia, a work completed sometime in the 1640s but not published in Milton's lifetime. A version of Moscovia was published several years after Milton's death under the title A Brief History of Moscovia (1682). at problematic, awkwardly structured little book has long been dismissed by scholars as incomplete or as Milton's least significant work, but when the contents of The Rarities of Russia are added to it (there is virtually no overlapping information), Milton's book about Russia is transformed into a fine piece of Baconian geographic scholarship. This article explores the context in which The Rarities of Russia was published as well as the pamphlet's content and source base to make the case for Milton as its author and for Milton's friend Andrew Marvell as the probable facilitator of its publication. The pamphlet includes a reference to Russia in the Spring as something akin to “Paradise.” The use of the term “Paradise” is especially interesting because Milton was apparently composing Paradise Lost when he paused to ghostwrite The Rarities of Russia .
Spatial and Microphysical Characteristics of Low-Ceiling, Temperature-Inverted Clouds in Warm Overrunning and Freezing-Rain Conditions: A Case Study
Authors: Jeck Richard K.
Published: May 2011

In-flight microphysical measurements in classical freezing-rain conditions were used to study the vertical and horizontal characteristics of the precipitation and associated low-ceiling, stratiform clouds, which are usually present as overcast in freezing-rain conditions. The low overcast is usually based in the surface cold layer but may extend up into the inversion, or transition layer, between the overrunning warm air and the surface cold layer. This gives the cloud an unusual temperature-inverted structure—supercooled in the lower half and warmer than freezing in the upper half. The low cloud is also subject to wind shear and turbulence that is due to the warm overrunning. The apparent effects of this are 1) increased cloud droplet concentrations in clusters up to a few hundred meters wide that occur sporadically in the cloud layer, 2) possible forcing of cloudy air upward from lower levels against the resistance of the temperature inversion and into the transition layer, and 3) highly variable air temperatures during level flight in the inversion layer.
Effects of Landfall Location and the Approach Angle of a Cyclone Vortex Encountering a Mesoscale Mountain Range
Authors: Lin Yuh-Lang , Savage L. Crosby
Published: May 2011

The orographic effects of landfall location, approach angle, and their combination on track deflection during the passage of a cyclone vortex over a mesoscale mountain range are investigated using idealized model simulations. For an elongated mesoscale mountain range, the local vorticity generation, driving the cyclone vortex track deflection, is more dominated by vorticity advection upstream of the mountain range, by vorticity stretching over the lee side and its immediate downstream area, and by vorticity advection again far downstream of the mountain as it steers the vortex back to its original direction of movement. The vorticity advection upstream of the mountain range is caused by the flow splitting associated with orographic blocking. It is found that the ideally simulated cyclone vortex tracks compare reasonably well with observed tracks of typhoons over Taiwan’s Central Mountain Range (CMR).

In analyzing the relative vorticity budget, the authors found that jumps in the vortex path are largely governed by stretching on the lee side of the mountain. Based on the vorticity equation, this stretching occurs where fluid columns descend the lee slope so that the rate of stretching is governed mostly by the flow speed and the terrain slope. In other words, the maximum stretching and associated track jump are located on the faster side of the vortex. In the type E and N landfalling tracks, the faster winds are well north of the mountain crest, and the vortex track has very little change across the mountain. For the S case, however, the stronger winds are near the center of the ridge, and the track jump is much larger. For the NE case, the jump in the vortex track occurs once the vortex center shifts south of the ridge. For the SE case, there is considerable stretching, but it is aligned with the original track, so there is no jump in track.
Reconstruction of the Extratropical NH Mean Temperature over the Last Millennium with a Method that Preserves Low-Frequency Variability
Authors: Christiansen Bo , Ljungqvist Fredrik Charpentier
Published: May 2011

A new multiproxy reconstruction of the Northern Hemisphere extratropical mean temperature over the last millennium is presented. The reconstruction is performed with a novel method designed to avoid the underestimation of low-frequency variability that has been a general problem for regression-based reconstruction methods. The disadvantage of this method is an exaggerated high-frequency variability. The reconstruction is based on a set of 40 proxies of annual to decadal resolution that have been shown to relate to the local temperature. The new reconstruction shows a very cold Little Ice Age centered around the 17th century with a cold extremum (for 50-yr smoothing) of about 1.1 K below the temperature of the calibration period, AD 1880–1960. This cooling is about twice as large as corresponding numbers reported by most other reconstructions. In the beginning of the millennium the new reconstruction shows small anomalies in agreement with previous studies. However, the new temperature reconstruction decreases faster than previous reconstructions in the first 600 years of the millennium and has a stronger variability. The salient features of the new reconstruction are shown to be robust to changes in the calibration period, the source of the local temperatures, the spatial averaging procedure, and the screening process applied to the proxies. An ensemble pseudoproxy approach is applied to estimate the confidence intervals of the 50-yr smoothed reconstruction showing that the period AD 1500–1850 is significantly colder than the calibration period.
Correlation Models for Temperature Fields
Authors: North Gerald R. , Wang Jue , Genton Marc G.
Published: May 2011

This paper presents derivations of some analytical forms for spatial correlations of evolving random fields governed by a white-noise-driven damped diffusion equation that is the analog of autoregressive order 1 in time and autoregressive order 2 in space. The study considers the two-dimensional plane and the surface of a sphere, both of which have been studied before, but here time is introduced to the problem. Such models have a finite characteristic length (roughly the separation at which the autocorrelation falls to 1/e) and a relaxation time scale. In particular, the characteristic length of a particular temporal Fourier component of the field increases to a finite value as the frequency of the particular component decreases. Some near-analytical formulas are provided for the results. A potential application is to the correlation structure of surface temperature fields and to the estimation of large area averages, depending on how the original datastream is filtered into a distribution of Fourier frequencies (e.g., moving average, low pass, or narrow band). The form of the governing equation is just that of the simple energy balance climate models, which have a long history in climate studies. The physical motivation provided by the derivation from a climate model provides some heuristic appeal to the approach and suggests extensions of the work to nonuniform cases.
Deep Currents in the Bay of Campeche
Authors: Kolodziejczyk Nicolas , Ochoa José , Candela Julio , Sheinbaum Julio
Published: May 2011

Data from five moorings deployed in the Bay of Campeche during November 2007–July 2008 are used to analyze subinertial motions of waters below 1000-m depth. To the authors’ knowledge, this is the first time such a comprehensive observational program of direct deep-current measurements has been carried out in the region. The mean currents are in agreement with a cyclonic circulation at 1000-m depth; however, this cyclonic pattern is not so clearly defined at deeper levels. Only at the deepest mooring, located at 3500-m depth, are the mean currents uniform all the way to the bottom. Over the Bay of Campeche’s smooth western slope, currents show features compatible with topographic Rossby waves having vertical trapping scales thicker than 700 m, periods between 5 and 60 days, and horizontal wavelengths of 90–140 km. In contrast, the eastern slopes are characterized by rough topography, and motions with periods longer than 28 days decrease toward the bottom, suggesting a substantial reduction in the low-frequency topographic Rossby wave signal. Velocities from one of the two neighboring moorings located over the eastern rough slope have a strong 3-day period signal, which increases toward the bottom and has a vertical trapping scale of about 350 m. These higher frequency motions are interpreted in terms of edge waves.
The Role of Interocean Exchanges on Decadal Variations of the Meridional Heat Transport in the South Atlantic
Authors: Dong Shenfu , Garzoli Silvia , Baringer Molly
Published: May 2011

The interocean exchange of water from the South Atlantic with the Pacific and Indian Oceans is examined using the output from the ocean general circulation model for the Earth Simulator (OFES) during the period 1980–2006. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the role of the interocean exchanges in the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and its associated meridional heat transport (MHT) in the South Atlantic. The meridional heat transport from OFES shows a similar response to AMOC variations to that derived from observations: a 1 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1) increase in the AMOC strength would cause a 0.054 ± 0.003 PW increase in MHT at approximately 34°S. The main feature in the AMOC and MHT across 34°S is their increasing trends during the period 1980–93. Separating the transports into boundary currents and ocean interior regions indicates that the increase in transport comes from the ocean interior region, suggesting that it is important to monitor the ocean interior region to capture changes in the AMOC and MHT on decadal to longer time scales. The linear increase in the MHT from 1980 to 1993 is due to the increase in advective heat converged into the South Atlantic from the Pacific and Indian Oceans. Of the total increase in the heat convergence, about two-thirds is contributed by the Indian Ocean through the Agulhas Current system, suggesting that the warm-water route from the Indian Ocean plays a more important role in the northward-flowing water in the upper branch of the AMOC at 34°S during the study period.
Temporal Variation of Aerosol Optical Properties at Măgurele, Romania
Authors: Mihai Laura , Stefan Sabina
Published: May 2011

Even though much research has been conducted regarding the study of atmospheric aerosols, significant uncertainties still exist in this direction. The uncertainties are related to different physical and microphysical properties of these fine particles, but they are also related to the complex processes of interactions between aerosols and other atmospheric components, such as water droplets in the clouds or gaseous molecules. Therefore, it is mandatory to understand aerosol physics with maximum precision in real time all over the world. In this paper, the results of the statistical analysis of atmospheric aerosol optical properties as the total scattering and the backscattering coefficients, the Ångström parameter, and the aerosol optical depth from Măgurele (Ilfov, Romania) are presented. The analysis covers the period between 1 June 2008 and 31 December 2009. The results showed significant differences in temporal variations of the optical parameters for the winter of 2008 and 2009. From spring 2009 to the winter of this year, a decreasing tendency of the total scattering coefficient and an increasing trend for the Ångström exponent were observed. The size-increase tendency, over 1 μm, appears during the spring of 2008 and the summers of 2008 and 2009, coinciding with the local pollution or Saharan dust intrusion episodes. From the seasonal analysis, a certain monthly variation of the optical parameters was noticed. The results of the diurnal optical properties variations for the Măgurele area showed visible differences between the maximal and minimal values for the spring and summer seasons.
Error Covariance Matrices Characterization in the Ocean Salinity Retrieval Cost Function within the SMOS Mission
Authors: Talone M. , Gabarró C. , Camps A. , Sabia R. , Gourrion J. , Vall-llossera M. , Font J.
Published: May 2011

The interests of the scientific community working on the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) ocean salinity level 2 processor definition are currently focused on improving the performance of the retrieval algorithm, which is based on an iterative procedure where a cost function relating models, measurements, and auxiliary data is minimized. For this reason, most of the effort is currently focused on the analysis and the optimization of the cost function.

Within this framework, this study represents a contribution to the assessment of one of the pending issues in the definition of the cost function: the optimal weight to be given to the radiometric measurements with respect to the weight given to the background geophysical terms.

A whole month of brightness temperature acquisitions have been simulated by means of the SMOS-End-to-End Performance Simulator. The level 2 retrieval has been performed using the Universitat Politècnica de Catalunya (UPC) level 2 processor simulator using four different configurations, namely, the direct covariance matrices, the two cost functions currently described in the SMOS literature, and, finally, a new weight (the so-called effective number of measurement).

Results show that not even the proposed weight properly drives the minimization, and that the current cost function has to be modified in order to avoid the introduction of artifacts in the retrieval procedure. The calculation of the brightness temperature misfit covariance matrices reveals the presence of very complex patterns, and the inclusion of those in the cost function strongly modifies the retrieval performance. Worse but more Gaussian results are obtained, pointing out the need for a more accurate modeling of the correlation between brightness temperature misfits, in order to ensure a proper balancing with the relative weights to be given to the geophysical terms.
Toward a Multiscale Approach for Computational Atmospheric Modeling
Authors: Alam Jahrul M.
Published: May 2011

Atmospheric motions are generally characterized by a wide range of multiple length and time scales, and a numerical method must use a fine grid to resolve such a wide range of scales. Furthermore, a very fine grid requires an extremely small time step in order to keep explicit time integration schemes stable. Therefore, high-resolution meteorological simulations are very expensive.

A novel multiscale modeling approach is, therefore, presented for simulating atmospheric flows. In this approach, a prognostic variable representing a highly intermittent multiscale feature is decomposed into a significant and a nonsignificant part using wavelets, where the significant part is represented by a small fraction of the wavelet modes. The proposed multiscale methodology has been verified for simulating three cases: Smolarkiewicz’s deformational flow model, warm thermals in a dry atmosphere, and the dynamics of a vortex pair with ambient stable stratification. Comparisons with benchmark simulations and with a reference model are evidence for the convergence and stability of the proposed model. The comparison with the reference model has revealed that about 93% of the grid points are not necessary to resolve the significant motion in a warm thermal simulation, saving about 96% of the CPU time. Moreover, the CPU time varies linearly with the number of significant wavelet modes, showing that the present fully implicit adaptive model is asymptotically optimal for this simulation. These primary results point toward the benefit of constructing multiscale atmospheric models using the adaptive wavelet methodology.
A Preliminary Look at the Social Perspective of Warn-on-Forecast: Preferred Tornado Warning Lead Time and the General Public’s Perceptions of Weather Risks
Authors: Hoekstra S. , Klockow K. , Riley R. , Brotzge J. , Brooks H. , Erickson S.
Published: May 2011

Tornado warnings are currently issued an average of 13 min in advance of a tornado and are based on a warn-on-detection paradigm. However, computer model improvements may allow for a new warning paradigm, warn-on-forecast, to be established in the future. This would mean that tornado warnings could be issued one to two hours in advance, prior to storm initiation. In anticipation of the technological innovation, this study inquires whether the warn-on-forecast paradigm for tornado warnings may be preferred by the public (i.e., individuals and households). The authors sample is drawn from visitors to the National Weather Center in Norman, Oklahoma. During the summer and fall of 2009, surveys were distributed to 320 participants to assess their understanding and perception of weather risks and preferred tornado warning lead time. Responses were analyzed according to several different parameters including age, region of residency, educational level, number of children, and prior tornado experience. A majority of the respondents answered many of the weather risk questions correctly. They seemed to be familiar with tornado seasons; however, they were unaware of the relative number of fatalities caused by tornadoes and several additional weather phenomena each year in the United States. The preferred lead time was 34.3 min according to average survey responses. This suggests that while the general public may currently prefer a longer average lead time than the present system offers, the preference does not extend to the 1–2-h time frame theoretically offered by the warn-on-forecast system. When asked what they would do if given a 1-h lead time, respondents reported that taking shelter was a lesser priority than when given a 15-min lead time, and fleeing the area became a slightly more popular alternative. A majority of respondents also reported the situation would feel less life threatening if given a 1-h lead time. These results suggest that how the public responds to longer lead times may be complex and situationally dependent, and further study must be conducted to ascertain the users for whom the longer lead times would carry the most value. These results form the basis of an informative stated-preference approach to predicting public response to long (>1 h) warning lead times, using public understanding of the risks posed by severe weather events to contextualize lead-time demand.
Gulf Coast Residents Underestimate Hurricane Destructive Potential
Authors: Stewart Alan E.
Published: May 2011

Most people do not realize that hurricane destructiveness increases nonlinearly with increases in storm intensity. Three studies were conducted to examine people’s perceptions of hurricane destructive potential and their likelihood of evacuation. In the first study, undergraduate students (n = 349) provided damage ratings of hurricanes in each Saffir–Simpson category. A majority (84%) of students produced only linearly increasing damage profiles by hurricanes. In the second study, a simple random sample of Gulf Coast residents (n = 402) who participated in a telephone survey when a tropical storm was affecting the U.S. east coast revealed that a majority (77%) thought hurricane damages increased linearly with hurricane category and hence underestimated the damage major hurricanes could produce. In the third study, a simple random sample (n = 396) of Gulf Coast residents participated in an experiment over the telephone during an active phase of the 2008 hurricane season. One-half of the sample received information about the nonlinearly increasing damage potential of hurricanes; the other half received the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale category alone. The group in which hurricane damages were framed nonlinearly reported significantly greater self-reported likelihood of evacuation than residents who received the Saffir–Simpson hurricane category information. Studies 1 and 2 suggest that the public needs to learn more about the nonlinear relationship between hurricane intensity and the corresponding damages that may result. Study 3 suggests that framing possible storm damages in the nonlinearly increasing multiples of damages produced relative to a minimal hurricane may increase compliance with evacuation orders.
Vermont Climate Change Indicators
Authors: Betts Alan K.
Published: May 2011

Climate change indicators are developed for Vermont in recent decades based on the trends in freeze dates, the length of the growing season, the frozen period of small lakes, and the onset of spring. These trends, which show a consistent pattern of a warming climate in Vermont during the past 50 yr, provide useful information for climate change adaptation planning for the state. The freeze period has become shorter and the growing season for frost-sensitive plants has become longer by about 3.7 (±1.1) days decade−1, the date of the last spring freeze has come earlier by 2.3 (±0.7) days decade−1, and the first autumn freeze has come later by 1.5 (±0.8) days decade−1. The frozen period for small lakes, which depends on mean temperatures over longer periods, has decreased faster by 6.9 (±1.5) days decade−1. Lake freeze-up has occurred later by 3.9 (±1.1) days decade−1, while ice-out has come earlier by 2.9 (±1.0) days decade−1. Lilac first leaf has also been coming earlier by 2.9 (±0.8) days decade−1, while lilac first bloom has advanced more slowly, by 1.6 (±0.6) days decade−1. The first leaf of Vermont lilacs, an indicator of early spring, is closely correlated with the ice-out of the small reference lake, Stile’s Pond, because both are related to temperatures in February–April. In the past 40 yr, the growing season for frost-sensitive plants has increased by 2 weeks, and the growing season for frost-hardy plants may have increased more.
Column Water Vapor Statistics and Their Relationship to Deep Convection, Vertical and Horizontal Circulation, and Moisture Structure at Nauru
Authors: Lintner Benjamin R. , Holloway Christopher E. , Neelin J. David
Published: May 2011

Relationships among relatively high-frequency probability distribution functions (pdfs) of anomalous column water vapor (cwv), precipitating deep convection, and the vertical and horizontal structures of circulation and tropospheric moisture are investigated for the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) climate observing facility at Nauru in the western equatorial Pacific. At the highest frequencies (subdaily) analyzed, the cwv pdf exhibits a Gaussian core with pronounced longer-than-Gaussian, approximately exponential tails, with the relatively lower-frequency submonthly pdfs becoming more Gaussian distributed across the entire range of cwv variability. The genesis and morphology of the longer-than-Gaussian tails are examined within the context of several hypothetical mechanisms outlined in prior work. For example, pdf conditioning on ARM optical gauge precipitation measurements reveals an association of the positive-side tail with precipitating deep convective conditions; thus, despite the condensation and fallout of cwv during rainfall events, it is argued that updraft vertical motions associated with deep convection locally compensate the loss by increasing cwv. Using vertical moisture profiles from ARM radiosonde measurements, vertical structures of specific humidity anomalies associated with tail-regime cwv excursions are computed, with the negative cwv profile significantly departing from the mean profile in the lower free troposphere. Such behavior is consistent with local restorative surface evaporative forcing and turbulent mixing in the atmospheric boundary layer and drying of the column from above during descent conditions. Analysis of cwv variability with respect to the horizontal moisture structure, using gridded measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) and trajectories from the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model driven by NCEP–NCAR reanalysis meteorology underscores how the horizontal and vertical components modulate Nauru cwv: in particular, high cwv conditions at Nauru are often associated with weakened low-level inflow from the dry regions to the east of Nauru and stronger along-trajectory ascent. Finally, comparison of the ARM-based pdfs to those estimated from the reanalysis illustrates how pdf-based diagnostics may be useful tools for model intercomparison and validation.
A New Characterization of the Land Surface Heterogeneity over Africa for Use in Land Surface Models
Authors: Kaptué Tchuenté Armel Thibaut , Roujean Jean-Louis , Bégué Agnès , Los Sietse O. , Boone Aaron A. , Mahfouf Jean-François , Carrer Dominique , Daouda Badiane
Published: May 2011

Information related to land surface is immensely important to global change science. For example, land surface changes can alter regional climate through its effects on fluxes of water, energy, and carbon. In the past decades, data sources and methodologies for characterizing land surface heterogeneity (e.g., land cover, leaf area index, fractional vegetation cover, bare soil, and vegetation albedos) from remote sensing have evolved rapidly. The double ECOCLIMAP database—constituted of a land cover map and land surface variables and derived from Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) observations acquired between April 1992 and March 1993—was developed to support investigations that require information related to spatiotemporal dynamics of land surface. Here is the description of ECOCLIMAP-II: a new characterization of the land surface heterogeneity based on the latest generation of sensors, which represents an update of the ECOCLIMAP-I database over Africa. Owing to the many features of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensors (more accurate in spatial resolution and spectral information compared to the AVHRR sensor), a variety of methods have been developed for an extended period of 8 yr (2000–07) to strengthen consistency between land surface variables as required by the meteorological and ecological communities. The relative accuracy (or performance) quality of ECOCLIMAP-II was assessed (i.e., by comparison with other global datasets). Results illustrate a substantial refinement; for instance, the fractional vegetation cover resulting in a root-mean-square error of 34% instead of 64% in comparison with the original version of ECOCLIMAP.
Monitoring of IR Clear-Sky Radiances over Oceans for SST (MICROS)
Authors: Liang Xingming , Ignatov Alexander
Published: May 2011

Monitoring of IR Clear-Sky Radiances over Oceans for SST (MICROS) is a Web-based tool to monitor “model minus observation” (M − O) biases in clear-sky brightness temperatures (BTs) and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) produced by the Advanced Clear-Sky Processor for Oceans (ACSPO). Currently, MICROS monitors M − O biases in three Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) bands centered at 3.7, 11, and 12 μm for five satellites, NOAA-16, -17, -18, -19 and Meteorological Operational (MetOp)-A. The fast Community Radiative Transfer Model (CRTM) is employed to simulate clear-sky BTs, using Reynolds SST and National Centers for Environmental Prediction Global Forecast System profiles as input. Simulated BTs are used in ACSPO for improving cloud screening, physical SST inversions, and monitoring and validating satellite BTs. The key MICROS objectives are to fully understand and reconcile CRTM and AVHRR BTs, and to minimize cross-platform biases through improvements to ACSPO algorithms, CRTM and its inputs, satellite radiances, and skin-bulk and diurnal SST modeling.

Initially, MICROS was intended for internal use within the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS) SST team for testing and improving ACSPO products. However, it has quickly outgrown this initial objective and is now used by several research and applications groups. In particular, inclusion of double differences in MICROS has contributed to sensor-to-sensor monitoring within the Global Space-Based Intercalibration System, which is customarily performed using the well-established simultaneous nadir overpass technique. Also, CRTM scientists have made a number of critical improvements to CRTM using MICROS results. They now routinely use MICROS to continuously monitor M − O biases and validate and improve CRTM performance. MICROS is also instrumental in evaluating the accuracy of the first-guess SST and upper-air fields used as input to CRTM. This paper gives examples of these applications and discusses ongoing work and future plans.
On the Rapid Intensification of Hurricane Wilma (2005). Part I: Model Prediction and Structural Changes
Authors: Chen Hua , Zhang Da-Lin , Carton James , Atlas Robert
Published: May 2011

In this study, a 72-h cloud-permitting numerical prediction of Hurricane Wilma (2005), covering its initial 18-h spinup, an 18-h rapid intensification (RI), and the subsequent 36-h weakening stage, is performed using the Weather Research Forecast Model (WRF) with the finest grid length of 1 km. The model prediction uses the initial and lateral boundary conditions, including the bogus vortex, that are identical to the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory’s then-operational data, except for the time-independent sea surface temperature field. Results show that the WRF prediction compares favorably in many aspects to the best-track analysis, as well as satellite and reconnaissance flight-level observations. In particular, the model predicts an RI rate of more than 4 hPa h−1 for an 18-h period, with the minimum central pressure of less than 889 hPa. Of significance is that the model captures a sequence of important inner-core structural variations associated with Wilma’s intensity changes, namely, from a partial eyewall open to the west prior to RI to a full eyewall at the onset of RI, rapid eyewall contraction during the initial spinup, the formation of double eyewalls with a wide moat area in between during the most intense stage, and the subsequent eyewall replacement leading to the weakening of Wilma. In addition, the model reproduces the boundary layer growth up to 750 hPa with an intense inversion layer above in the eye. Recognizing that a single case does not provide a rigorous test of the model predictability due to the stochastic nature of deep convection, results presented herein suggest that it is possible to improve forecasts of hurricane intensity and intensity changes, and especially RI, if the inner-core structural changes and storm size could be reasonably predicted in an operational setting using high-resolution cloud-permitting models with realistic initial conditions and model physical parameterizations.
The Potential for Seasonal Forecasting of Winter Wave Heights in the Northern North Sea
Authors: Colman Andrew W. , Palin Erika J. , Sanderson Michael G. , Harrison Robert T. , Leggett Ian M.
Published: May 2011

The height of waves at North Sea oil and gas installations is an important factor governing the degree to which operational activities may be undertaken at those facilities. A link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and winter (defined as December–February) wave heights at North Sea oil and gas installations has been established. A tool has been developed that uses a forecast NAO index to predict the proportions of wave heights in four categories that could be used to assess the operational downtime that will be experienced in the coming winter. The wave height forecasting system is shown to have useful skill in predicting the probability of occurrence of a stormy winter, and therefore probability forecasts provide a potentially useful guide to whether more or less disruption than the “climatological mean” might be experienced. The main limit on the skill of the wave forecasts is our very limited ability to accurately predict the NAO index on seasonal time scales.
Modeling the Control of Attention in Visual Workspaces
Authors: Steelman Kelly S. , McCarley Jason S. , Wickens Christopher D.
Published: May 2011

Objective: The present study developed and validated a stochastic model of overt attention within a visual workspace.

Background: Technical specifications and recommended practices for the design of visual warning systems emphasize the role of alert salience. Task demands and display context can modulate alert noticeability, however, meaning that salience alone does not guarantee attention capture.

Method: A stochastic model integrated elements from existing models of visual attention to predict attentional behavior in dynamic environments. Validation studies tested the predictions of the new model against scanning data from a high-fidelity simulator study and behavioral data from an alert detection experiment.

Results: The model accurately predicted the steady-state distribution of attention within a simulated cockpit as well as the effects of color similarity, eccentricity, and dynamic visual noise on miss rates and response times in the alert detection task.

Conclusion: The model successfully predicts attentional behavior in complex visual workspaces with the use of parameter values selected by either the modeler or a subject matter expert.

Application: The model provides a tool to test the effectiveness of visual alerts in various display configurations and with varying task demands.
The Political Theology of Consumer Sovereignty
Authors: Schwarzkopf Stefan
Published: May 2011

The article analyses the common notion that the consumer society is a reflection of those principles in the market that also provide the ideas of democracy and liberal constitutionalism with legitimacy in the political realm. The inalienable right to self-development and self-determination makes the individual the starting and ending point of life, rendering all spheres of market and society a ‘republic of choice’. But if consumer society shares the essentials of liberal constitutionalism and the rational, processual nature of democratic representation, then its ontology needs to be investigated for the same reason and in the same manner as legal and political philosophy dissects the legitimacy and validity of the parliamentary institutions of modern democracy. Just as in the political philosophy of the constitutional structure of the democratic state, the question of who is sovereign is key to understanding the ontology of consumer society. But rather than simply placing sovereignty into the hands of the independent, self-determined consumer, the earliest ontologists of the consumer society took recourse to medieval political theology and presented the consumer market as a new corpus mysticum. Thus, it is medieval political theology, not modern liberal thought, which provided for an ontologization of the consumer. This, in turn, directly pertains to the questions of the legitimacy of consumer society per se, of consumer decisions in particular and of their sources of legitimacy.
Cosmopolitics and the Subaltern
Authors: Watson Matthew C.
Published: May 2011

This essay traces the ontological and political limits of Bruno Latour’s conceptualization of the ‘common world’. Latour formulates this concept in explicating how modernist scientific and political institutions require a metaphysical foundation that is anti-democratic in rigidly partitioning nature from society. In the stead of nature/society, Latour proposes a ‘cosmopolitics’ in which we recognize our embroilment in systems comprised of heterogeneous human and nonhuman actors, and seek to innovate appropriate procedures for governing such systems and composing a more peaceful common world. However, feminist and postcolonialist science studies scholars have argued that Latour’s project fails to apprehend the experiences of subjects marginalized by scientific and political structures of representation. Thus, science studies scholars seem to be faced with a problem; to avoid ontological dissonance and contradiction in integrating Latour’s program with feminist and postcolonialist critiques we must defer his claims that the cosmopolitical program entirely supersedes contemporary social movements and oppositional politics. I offer an alternative. Namely, I argue that Latour’s formulations of cosmopolitics’ procedures and the common world’s boundaries actually require an incipient model of the limits of democratic representation. I modify Latour’s proposed system of representation by reading it against Dipesh Chakrabarty’s concept of ‘subaltern pasts’, which are unassimilable to academic historical narratives (in their attribution of agency to nonhuman gods, for example). This reading emphasizes how Latour does not adequately theorize and politicize the partially autonomous reality of those excluded from the common world and thus fails to attend to how this externalization replicates the violence of modernist representational institutions.
Saba Mahmood and Anthropological Feminism After Virtue
Authors: Bangstad Sindre
Published: May 2011

This article explores the work of the influential poststructuralist and postcolonial anthropologist Saba Mahmood (UC Berkeley, USA). Mahmood’s work in anthropology adopts an Asadian and Butlerian approach, particularly in the seminal Politics of Piety: The Islamic Revival and the Feminist Subject. In this work, Mahmood critically interpellates the categories of ‘Western’ secular feminism through an exploration of the lives of pious Muslim women of Salafi orientations in Cairo in Egypt. Mahmood’s work constitutes an important intervention at a point in time when secular feminist discourses are increasingly instrumentalized across the political spectrum in anti-Muslim discourses in the ‘Western’ world and in Europe. I argue, however, that in wanting to use the understandings and practices of pious Muslim women in Egypt in order to critique Western secular feminism, Mahmood fails to pose critical questions about the historicity of these practices and understandings, and lends her analysis to a form of cultural relativism which offers few prospects for a way forward for feminism.