bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Virtually Perfect Time Sharing in Dual-Task Performance: Uncorking the Central Cognitive Bottleneck
Authors: Schumacher Eric H. , Seymour Travis L. , Glass Jennifer M. , Fencsik David E. , Lauber Erick J. , Kieras David E. , Meyer David E.
Published: March 2003

A fundamental issue for psychological science concerns the extent to which people can simultaneously perform two perceptual-motor tasks. Some theorists have hypothesized that such dual-task performance is severely and persistently constrained by a central cognitive “bottleneck,” whereas others have hypothesized that skilled procedural decision making and response selection for two or more tasks can proceed at the same time under adaptive executive control. The three experiments reported here support this latter hypothesis. Their results show that after relatively modest amounts of practice, at least some participants achieve virtually perfect time sharing in the dual-task performance of basic choice reaction tasks. The results also show that observed interference between tasks can be modulated by instructions about differential task priorities and personal preferences for daring (concurrent) or cautious (successive) scheduling of tasks. Given this outcome, future research should investigate exactly when and how such sophisticated skills in dual-task performance are acquired.
Do Amnesics Exhibit Cognitive Dissonance Reduction? The Role of Explicit Memory and Attention in Attitude Change
Authors: Lieberman Matthew D. , Ochsner Kevin N. , Gilbert Daniel T. , Schacter Daniel L.
Published: March 2003

In two studies, we investigated the roles of explicit memory and attentional resources in the process of behavior-induced attitude change. Although most theories of attitude change (cognitive dissonance and self-perception theories) assume an important role for both mechanisms, we propose that behavior-induced attitude change can be a relatively automatic process that does not require explicit memory for, or consciously controlled processing of, the discrepancy between attitude and behavior. Using a free-choice paradigm, we found that both amnesics and normal participants under cognitive load showed as much attitude change as did control participants.
Implicit Attitude Measures: Consistency, Stability, and Convergent Validity
Authors: Cunningham William A. , Preacher Kristopher J. , Banaji Mahzarin R.
Published: March 2003

In recent years, several techniques have been developed to measure implicit social cognition. Despite their increased use, little attention has been devoted to their reliability and validity. This article undertakes a direct assessment of the interitem consistency, stability, and convergent validity of some implicit attitude measures. Attitudes toward blacks and whites were measured on four separate occasions, each 2 weeks apart, using three relatively implicit measures (response-window evaluative priming, the Implicit Association Test, and the response-window Implicit Association Test) and one explicit measure (Modern Racism Scale). After correcting for interitem inconsistency with latent variable analyses, we found that (a) stability indices improved and (b) implicit measures were substantially correlated with each other, forming a single latent factor. The psychometric properties of response-latency implicit measures have greater integrity than recently suggested.
Higher-Education Administrators: When the Future Does Not Make a Difference
Authors: Logue A.W. , Anderson Yenny D.
Published: March 2003

The relationships between administrative actions and their long-term consequences were investigated in 14 people beginning training to become high-level college and university administrators, 19 people who had just finished that training, and 44 provosts (chief academic officers) at colleges and universities in the northeastern United States. The experienced administrators (those who had completed the training plus the provosts) were significantly more likely than the trainees to mention long-term consequences when describing their past and possible future administrative actions. However, in hypothetical choice situations, the experienced administrators were also significantly more likely than the trainees to choose smaller amounts of funds available immediately for their units versus larger amounts of promised future funds. With experience, administrators may both become more aware of their actions' long-term consequences and learn that they are unlikely to receive promised future funds. The contingencies in effect for higher-education administrators may lead them to make choices that do not result in their institutions meeting the highest standards.
Trace and Delay Eyeblink Conditioning: Contrasting Phenomena of Declarative and Nondeclarative Memory
Authors: Clark Robert E. , Manns Joseph R. , Squire Larry R.
Published: March 2003

We tested the proposal that trace and delay eyeblink conditioning are fundamentally different kinds of learning. Strings of one, two, three, or four trials with the conditioned stimulus (CS) alone and strings of one, two, three, or four trials with paired presentations of both the CS and the unconditioned stimulus (US) occurred in such a way that the probability of a US was independent of string length. Before each trial, participants predicted the likelihood of the US on the next trial. During both delay (n = 20) and trace (n = 18) conditioning, participants exhibited high expectation of the US following strings of CS-alone trials and low expectation of the US following strings of CS-US trials—a phenomenon known as the gambler's fallacy. During delay conditioning, conditioned responses (CRs) were not influenced by expectancy but by the associative strength of the CS and US. Thus, CR probability was high following a string of CS-US trials and low following a string of CS-alone trials. The results for trace conditioning were opposite. CR probability was high when expectancy of the US was high and low when expectancy of the US was low. The results show that trace and delay eyeblink conditioning are fundamentally different phenomena. We consider how the findings can be understood in terms of the declarative and nondeclarative memory systems that support eyeblink classical conditioning.
Absolute Identification with Simple and Complex Stimuli
Authors: Rouder Jeffrey N.
Published: March 2003

It is well known that people can perfectly identify only a handful of distinct unidimensional stimuli, such as line lengths, but can identify thousands of complex stimuli, such as letters and words. This result is consistent with capacity limits in identifying unidimensional stimuli but not complex stimuli. The experiments reported here tested this theoretical dissociation using Luce's (1963) Similarity Choice Model to measure the psychological distance between stimuli in line-length-identification and letter-identification tasks. The psychological distance between line-length stimuli decreased with the number of to-be-identified stimuli; this result is concordant with capacity limits in unidimensional absolute identification. Surprisingly, the opposite result held in letter identification. Psychological distance between letters increased with an increased number of to-be-identified stimuli. This result indicates an opposite type of processing deficit: People process letters more efficiently with more choices.
Object name Learning Provides On-the-Job Training for Attention
Authors: Smith Linda B. , Jones Susan S. , Landau Barbara , Gershkoff-Stowe Lisa , Samuelson Larissa
Published: March 2003

By the age of 3, children easily learn to name new objects, extending new names for unfamiliar objects by similarity in shape. Two experiments tested the proposal that experience in learning object names tunes children's attention to the properties relevant for naming—in the present case, to the property of shape—and thus facilitates the learning of more object names. In Experiment 1, a 9-week longitudinal study, 17-month-old children who repeatedly played with and heard names for members of unfamiliar object categories well organized by shape formed the generalization that only objects with similar shapes have the same name. Trained children also showed a dramatic increase in acquisition of new object names outside of the laboratory during the course of the study. Experiment 2 replicated these findings and showed that they depended on children's learning both a coherent category structure and object names. Thus, children who learn specific names for specific things in categories with a common organizing property—in this case, shape—also learn to attend to just the right property—in this case, shape—for learning more object names.
The Conservatives and the Civil Service: ‘One Step Forward, Two Steps Back’?
Authors: Fry Geoffrey K.
Published: March 2003

The period since 1979 has witnessed more radical change in the civil service than in any other peacetime era in its history. Such has been the order of change that Lord Bancroft, the former Head of the Home Civil Service, has suggested that the civil service was in danger of being ‘demolished’ and of there being a return to the ills of the ‘unreformed’ service before the 1850s. This would be to take the ‘two steps back’ of the article’s title before the Northcote‐Trevelyan report and the Warren Fisher era. Against the background of this possible outcome, this article evaluates the Next Steps programme and the other initiatives promoted by recent Conservative governments, before concluding that the requirements of the work and a markedly unified career civil service need not be compatible, and that there is at least the possibility that the various changes when fully implemented could represent ‘one step forward’.
Cultural Theory and Democratizing Functional Domains, the Case of Danish Housing
Authors: Jensen Lotte
Published: March 2003

In the last decade experiments with decentralized democratic governance and citizen involvement have been launched throughout Europe in functional domains as varied as housing, environmental planning, primary schools and care for the elderly. This article analyses such democratization processes through the lense of cultural theory as formulated by Thompson, Ellis and Wildavsky (1990). It argues that cultural theory provides a framework for understanding why formal democratic rights and rules are not necessarily matched by democratic images among actors. It draws on empirical material from the Danish social housing sector, which is widely recognized for its decentralized governance system and extensive tenant involvement.
Public Services, Quangos And Women: A Concern For Local Government
Authors: Sperling Liz
Published: March 2003

The past eighteen years have witnessed a shift in the locus of much public sector service provision from elected and heavily regulated local government to the more opaque, appointed sector of quasi‐autonomous non‐governmental organizations (QUANGOs). This shift has been the basis of much debate about the nature of democratic accountability and whether the users of public services are empowered by such decentralization. What has yet to be considered is how the displacement of local authority representation and service delivery may affect different groups of service users. This article is concerned with such issues in relation to women as consumers of public services who, from genuine political as well as expedient motivations, have been relatively well represented by local authorities. The concern here is that as decision making moves away from public view, the need to be seen to accommodate difference is lost, and representative diversity will suffer.
Probation Officer Training, Promotional Culture and the Public Sphere
Authors: Aldridge Meryl
Published: March 2003

Recent writing on the professions has given little consideration to the state’s potential for threatening a professional formation. This paper argues that the reorganization of probation officer training in England and Wales is an instance of stateled de‐professionalization. The process of problematizing the issue and the steps taken to try and mobilize public endorsement for radical policy change are traced, as are the counter‐moves of groups attempting to maintain the existing training arrangements. This illuminates two aspects of contemporary public debate in the UK. First, it demonstrates the impact of the requirement that public sector organizations and occupations show ‘enterprise’ by successful self‐promotion. Second, the episode is located within Habermas’s concept of the public sphere, in which participation itself – let alone any possibility of achieving the desired outcome – now appears to depend upon relative resources and on attracting the attention of influential news media
New Technologies and the Modernization of Local Government: an Analysis of Biases and Constraints
Authors: Pratchett Lawrence
Published: March 2003

In emerging structures of local governance the institutions of elected local government have the potential to fulfil three complementary roles: those of local democracy, public policy making and direct service delivery. Although ICTs (information and communication technologies) could effectively develop all three roles there is a systemic bias which favours service delivery applications and ignores others. This bias can be explained by reference to a network of actors who determine ICT policy in relative isolation from the other policy networks active at the local level. The ways in which this bias is perpetuated are explored through a case study of ICT policy making in UK local government. The implications of the systemic bias for the long‐term future of local government, and indeed public administration, are both severe and profound. They suggest an over‐emphasis upon performance measurement, a decline in democratic activity and a diminishing capacity among elected bodies to effect broad public policy initiatives.
Contract Regimes and Reflexive Governance: Comparing Employment Service Reforms in the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, New Zealand and Australia
Authors: Considine Mark
Published: March 2003

Contemporary debates concerning the nature of ‘new governance’ typically focus upon the shifting roles played by bureaucracies, networks and markets in the provision of public services (Kooiman 1993; Ormsby 1988). At the core of these recent changes we find a strong interest in having private agents deliver public services. Sometimes this is expressed as privatization and in other cases a ‘mixed economy’ of public and private participation may be devised (Williamson 1975; Moe 1984). In this study a number of central elements of neo‐liberal public management are brought together in a single focus upon the ‘contract regime’ in order to examine the extent to which single initiatives might combine to produce a recognizable system of governance. Such an institutional form may then be more carefully specified and its impact compared in different governmental systems. Using a four‐country comparison of employment service reform the study shows that distinctions based upon degree of privatization do not adequately explain regime types whereas distinctions based upon ‘compliance‐centred’ or ‘client‐centred’ forms of contracting are more powerful. The type of reflexive interaction between different elements or levels of contracting also explains country differences.
‘Out Of Sight, Out Of Mind’: Assessing The Impact Of Markets For Children’s Residential Care
Authors: Kirkpatrick Ian , Kitchener Martin , Whipp Richard
Published: March 2003

This article is concerned with assessing the effectiveness of markets for complex professional services in social care. The issue is explored through an account of developments in the children’s residential care sector. Over the past five years there has been a steady expansion in the role of external markets in this area. However, this was not required by the Children Act 1989 and has become the subject of considerable debate between policy makers and practitioners. While some favour an extension of choice, others argue that a further decline in local authority run provision will be both costly and detrimental in terms of meeting key policy goals. In order to assess these claims, reference is made to the findings of a study of purchasing practices for children’s residential care in twelve local authorities in England and Wales. The impact of the emerging market is analysed along two dimensions. Firstly, we assess how far it is operating efficiently, concentrating on market structure, information and transaction costs. Secondly, attention is given to the impact of market changes on the policy objectives of: localized placements; ensuring adequate safeguards; and matching needs and services. The results reveal that there have been significant costs associated with markets in children’s services. In a context of government efforts to promote modes of service delivery on the basis of ‘what works’, these difficulties have certain implications. Not only do they draw attention to the need for greater collaboration between purchasers and providers, they also point to the continued relevance and usefulness of local authority managed provision.
Administration and Society: Beyond Public Choice?
Authors: Zafirovski Milan
Published: March 2003

This paper involves an attempt at reconsidering public choice theory, with reference to its pertinence for public administration. The impetus for such reconsideration has been supplied by the claims of public choice theorists that their theory, as the economics of politics, is superior to its alternatives in political science and sociology. The Weberian theory of bureaucratic administration or bureaucracy has been a special target of public choice theorists on the grounds that it misconstrues bureaucrats as idealists in economic terms. The public choice solution is treating bureaucrats and other political subjects as rational utility optimizers, including profit‐maximizers and rent‐seekers. Public choice theorists claim that such a treatment has revolutionalized the theory of bureaucratic administration. The reconsideration does not provide prima facie support for these claims of public choice theorists.
The Civil Service Under Stress: The Fall in Civil Service Power and Authority
Authors: Foster C. D.
Published: March 2003

The failures of governments of both parties in the 1970s had prepared for radical changes in the nature of government under Margaret Thatcher. Among them were that ministers resumed greater power over their civil servants. While various aspects of the relationship between ministers and officials changed and despite the introduction of special advisers, close partnership — the Haldane relationship — was largely retained between them until the end of the 1980s. In the 1990s ministers began to operate less closely with the civil service, largely because they found they had less time for departmental work under the Major and the first Blair administrations. Many of the skills for which civil servants had been trained became less in demand because of the ending of the Cabinet style of government, the reduced importance of ministers appearing before parliament and the greater involvement of spin doctors and media handlers in preparing public documents. However, new skills were required: more rapid accessing of information and more skill in implementation and responsibility for it. The Wilson reforms of 1999 were in large part aimed to remedy these shortcomings. There remains a question whether enough of the Haldane relationship survives for government not to be driven towards greater definition of the rules in which civil servants operate.
Governance in Whitehall
Authors: Flinders Matthew
Published: March 2003

Governance theory raises conceptual and theoretical questions about the coordination of complex social systems and the evolving role of the state within that process. A central aspect of the governance debate focuses on the ability of national governments to address salient social issues. This article examines the British Labour governments’ attempts to facilitate cross‐departmental inter‐organizational collaboration within Whitehall in an attempt to develop innovative responses to seemingly intractable social problems. The government’s desire and strategy to increase its capacity to orchestrate ‘joined‐up’ government can be interpreted as both an acceptance and a response to the challenges of modern governance. The article locates the structural, procedural and cultural responses to this challenge within the theoretical and analytical framework of governance theory. It concludes by suggesting that meaningful change in the way public policy is designed and implemented may well demand a more deep seated reappraisal of the structure of Whitehall and the dominant values of the British political elite than is currently anticipated.
A taxonomy of internationally dispersed technology units and its application to management issues
Authors: Medcof John W.
Published: March 2003

Internationally dispersed technology units are classified using a system based upon three clearly defined dimensions: Type of technical work (research, development or support); functional areas with which the technology unit collaborates in its work (marketing, manufacturing, marketing and manufacturing, or none); and geographic area of collaboration (local, international). The resulting eight category taxonomy is shown to provide an improved platform for organizing and integrating the literature on the management of internationally dispersed technology units and for articulating theoretical issues in ongoing programs of empirical research.
Strategic Planning in Research and Technology Institutes
Authors: Arnold Erik , Rush Howard , Bessant John , Hobday Mike
Published: March 2003

Research and Technology Institutes (RTIs) are today facing the challenges of restructuring. New demands are being placed upon them in an increasingly uncertain financial and innovation environment. This paper, which is based upon a review of nine of the most successful RTIs in Europe, North America and East Asia, provides a framework for assessing RTIs and understanding how RTIs need to function to meet user needs within the context of national systems of innovation. The paper suggests some simple tools for identifying and classifying user needs as well as for assessing the strengths and weaknesses of RTIs. It is argued that this type of analysis is a prerequisite for the strategic planning and management of such institutes. The paper points out some of the operational aspects of RTI management where improvement opportunities are often possible.
The role of reputation in the recruitment of scientists
Authors: McMillan G. , Deeds L.
Published: March 2003

Drawing on the sociology of science literature, we argue that a ‘reputation’ for openness with scientific information may be an important asset for a company to possess with regard to its recruiting efforts. To test this argument, we conducted a survey of over 400 Ph.D. students to determine if a company's support for publication matters in their job search, and what their opinions were regarding a list of twelve US pharmaceutical companies. Our results were that publication support does matter, but not as much as quality of research staff, working conditions, and salary. However, a ranking by our respondents of their top three prospective employers mirrored a ranking of those companies’ publication records suggesting that publication may indeed be a signaling device, thus providing a higher degree of visibility, that prospective employees consider.
Bibliometric assessment of research performance in Flanders: policy background and implications
Authors: Luwel Marc , Noyons Ed C.M. , Moed Henk F.
Published: March 2003

We illustrate the use of bibliometric tools in the evaluation of scientific research conducted at Flemish universities and publicly funded research organisations, and in the assessment of scientific‐technological performance in Flanders in the field of information technology. We sketch the policy background of a number of studies conducted during the past 6 years in Flanders. These studies have provided useful information to evaluators and policy makers in Flanders, and have generated indirect effects on policy decisions, as their outcomes were used in the policy debate to raise relevant questions, clarify concepts or distinctions, question assumptions or to substantiate impressions.
A fast method for analysing and improving complex software processes
Authors: Hobday Mike , Brady Tim
Published: March 2003

This paper presents a simple, fast method (or management tool) for the analysis and improvement of software‐intensive complex products and systems (CoPS) called software analysis‐software improvement (SA‐SI). The tool relies on outside intervention, rapid data collection and structured in‐company workshops. The distinctive feature of the method is that it focuses on the ‘soft’, human side of the software development process and examines and compares formal (or rational) processes (‘what should be’) with real, actual practices (‘what is’), in order to identify problems, their causes and strategies for improvement. The tool complements existing formal approaches by delivering a ‘bottom up’, grass roots, practitioner view of real processes in action. The purpose of SA‐SI is to help overcome the severe problems of measuring, analysing and improving performance in large scale, complex software projects. An illustrative case example (Company X) is used to show how the tool is applied and how it confronts the problem of actual/real processes differing from ideal/formal processes. It also shows how SA‐SI is used to identify process ‘hot spots’(severe problems), analyse their causes and identify solutions. The paper provides guidance on typical problems encountered in running SA‐SI and how to overcome them. It also shows how the tool has been modified and extended to deal with other complex domains and innovation management issues. Although SA‐SI cannot be a substitute for a change programme, it can play a useful part in complementing ongoing improvement activities. From a research perspective, the method helps link up studies from the organisational development and software fields and assists in ‘closing the loop’ between innovation research and business practice.
Why are there glitches in product development?
Authors: Hoopes David
Published: March 2003

Managers and scholars emphasize the importance of inter‐departmental integration to successful product development and emphasize the importance of product development capabilities to firm performance. Interdepartmental integration can increase shared knowledge; this in turn can reduce the severity and incidence of seemingly unnecessary and costly mistakes leading to more efficient and effective product development. This paper examines the sources of shared knowledge problems across functional and product‐based groups. Using interviews, product development plans, and time‐sheet data, we look at the underlying factors behind two sources of knowledge sharing problems: (1) a serial product development process (i.e. little or no face‐to‐face communications) and (2) ineffective use of integrating mechanisms because of sticky knowledge. For each problem source, we find two key causal factors. We discuss the problems, their factors, and the implications for management and theory.
What's Really Wrong with the Limited Quantity View?
Authors: Mulgan Tim
Published: March 2003

In Part Four of Reasons and Persons, Derek Parfit seeks Theory X – the Utilitarian account of the morality of choices where the number of people who will ever exist depends upon our actions. Parfit argues that X has yet to be found. The two simplest versions of Theory X are Total Utilitarianism and Average Utilitarianism. Unfortunately, Parfit argues, each of these leads to unacceptable results. Parfit explores various alternatives and finds them all unsatisfactory. This paper deals with one of those alternatives: the Limited Quantity View. I argue that ParfitÃs argument against this view fails. However, I then present a new and more general objection which defeats a broad range of utilitarian views, including the Limited Quantity View.
On the Puzzle Surrounding Hans Kelsen's Basic Norm
Authors: Paulson Stanley L.
Published: March 2003

Whereas fundamental norms in the juridico‐philosophical tradition serve to impose constraints, Kelsen's fundamental norm—or basic norm (Grundnorm)—purports to establish the normativist character of the law. But how is the basic norm itself established? Kelsen himself rules out the appeals that are familiar from the tradition—the appeal to fact, and to morality. What remains is a Kantian argument. I introduce and briefly evaluate the Kantian and neo‐Kantian positions, as applied to Kelsen's theory. The distinction between the two positions, I argue, is reflected in an ambiguity in the use of the term “regressive.”
Scaffolding Reading of Science Explanations: Accessing the Grammatical and Visual Forms of Specialized Knowledge
Authors: Unsworth Len
Published: March 2003

A major problem which children come up against as they move through their schooling is learning to work with and produce texts with a range of distinctive structures and language features. Texts used in each curriculum area differ in their structures and features and unless children are prepared to cope with these differences they will be handicapped in their use of literacy across the curriculum. Len Unsworth explores this issue in some depth in this article by examining in detail the textual problems caused by science explanation texts.
Towards a Balanced Approach to Phonics Teaching
Authors: Dombey Henrietta
Published: March 2003

Phonics is currently a topic attracting wide interest and concern. While there is general agreement that the teaching of reading needs to include attention to phonics, the form this should take is disputed. Recently synthetic approaches have attracted much publicity. This article examines what synthetic phonics involves, contrasting this with a more balanced approach, in terms of the phonic content taught, the means by which the teaching is transacted and its relation to other aspects of learning to read.
Export Sector Dynamics and Domestic Growth: The Case of Colombia
Authors: Piñeres Sheila Amin Gutiérrez de , Ferrantino Michael
Published: March 2003

Analyses of Colombian data have generally failed to confirm the hypothesis of export‐led growth. This paper generates several measures of export diversification and structural change in exports, and argues that these measures are useful in assessing growth externalities generated by the export sector. In a simultaneous‐equations framework, increases in the rate of export structural change are associated with accelerated Colombian GDP growth. Export diversification, by contrast, is not a source of economic growth, and the reduced‐form relationship between aggregate lagged export growth and GDP growth is weak.
School Participation in Rural India
Authors: Drèze Jean , Kingdon Geeta Gandhi
Published: March 2003

This paper presents an analysis of the determinants of school participation in rural north India, based on a recent household survey which includes detailed information on school characteristics. School participation, especially among girls, responds to a wide range of variables, including parental education and motivation, social background, dependency ratios, work opportunities, village development, teacher postings, mid‐day meals and infrastructural quality. Mid‐day meals are particularly effective: the provision of a mid‐day meal in the local school roughly halves the proportion of girls excluded from the schooling system. School quality matters, though it is not related in a simple way to specific inputs.
U or Inverted‐U? That Is the Question
Authors: Burger John D.
Published: March 2003

Fields (The Economic Journal, vol. 103, 1993, pp. 1228–35) provides a forceful argument in favor of a U‐shaped path for inequality during a period of high‐income‐sector enlargement in a dual‐economy model. This paper explores the assumptions necessary to derive Fields’s controversial result and demonstrates that in fact a U‐shaped pattern is possible using the Atkinson index, but some bizarre assumptions about inequality aversion are required.
Relating International Trade to the Housing Market
Authors: Leung Charles Ka Yui
Published: March 2003

Studies of tariffs have tended to ignore their impact on housing markets. This paper builds a simple dynamic general‐equilibrium model to bridge the gap. The model is consistent with empirical findings that housing prices in several small open economies, and the price of nontradeables relative to tradeables, have increased over time. The model also allows closed‐form solutions of the elasticity of the economic growth rate, the housing‐stock growth rate, and the housing‐price growth rate, with respect to the tariff rate. Other testable implications are generated.
Investment in Hierarchical Human Capital
Authors: Driskill Robert A. , Horowitz Andrew W.
Published: March 2003

Advanced human capital requires “basic” human capital as an input. Physical capital does not, in general, have such hierarchical structure. This paper models optimal investment in hierarchical human capital as well as nonhierarchical physical capital. The authors analyze the steady state, transition dynamics, and endogenous growth properties of the system. The optimal program exhibits non‐monotonicities in human capital stocks. This result has important implications for the optimal timing of investment in hierarchical human capital. The analysis also addresses the debate regarding the distribution of education expenditures and the divergence between ex‐post and ex‐ante rates of return to education.
Participation and Development: Perspectives from the Comprehensive Development Paradigm
Authors: Stiglitz Joseph E.
Published: March 2003

This paper investigates the relationship between economic and social development. Contrary to the view of those who believe in the existence of a tradeoff between democracy and growth, the paper contends that consensus‐building, open dialog and the promotion of an active civil society are key ingredients to long‐term sustainable development. Development is a participatory process. “Best practices” or reforms that are imposed on a country through conditionality may very well fail to produce lasting change. They will tend to undermine people’s incentives to develop their own capacities and weaken their confidence in using their own intelligence. Success in a knowledge‐based economy requires a highly‐educated citizenry, involved in the process of shaping and adapting ideas and policies. Participation and democracy in turn call for greater transparency and accountability in both the corporate and government sectors.
Strategic Trade Policy in a Vertically Related Industry
Authors: Bernhofen Daniel M.
Published: March 2003

This paper investigates strategic export intervention in a final‐good industry which uses an intermediate good supplied by a foreign monopolist. An export tax‐cum‐subsidy leads to horizontal and vertical rent extraction. The optimal government intervention in the final‐good market is shown to depend on the pricing scheme employed by the intermediate‐good producer.
Growth and Deeper Regional Integration in a Three‐Country Model
Authors: Walz Uwe
Published: March 2003

An endogenous growth model of three countries is used to investigate the dynamic effects of deeper economic integration between two countries in the presence of an outside world. The paper looks at the long‐run effects of inner‐union trade liberalization, the union’s external trade policy, and of the relaxation of the inner‐union barriers to migration. It is shown that regional integration via inner‐union trade liberalization can lead very well to a decline of the steady‐state growth rates.
Long‐Period Trade Elasticities for Canada, Japan, and the United States
Authors: Marquez Jaime
Published: March 2003

Most analyses of imports use brief, postwar samples and offer a large range of elasticity estimates suggesting that the role of income and prices in determining imports is not known with any precision. This paper offers an analysis of that role using data since 1890 for Canada, Japan, and the United States. The elasticities of the log–linear model are estimated and found to be inconsistent with the view that income and prices affect imports. Optimization models are considered and found to predict secular changes in income and price elasticities and explain the dispersion of estimates of the literature.
On the Gibson Paradox
Authors: Serletis Apostolos , Zestos George
Published: March 2003

This paper uses recent developments in the theory of nonstationary regressors to investigate empirical relationships previously taken to support the Gibson paradox, using quarterly data over the 1957:1–1994:4 period on nominal interest rates and prices for eight European Union countries—Belgium, Denmark, England, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, and The Netherlands. Using the methodology suggested by Kydland and Prescott, it is shown that the (relevant) cyclical nominal interest rate—price level contemporaneous correlations are weak, thereby punching a hole in the Gibson paradox. Evidence is also presented, based on the integration properties of the data, that standard Gibson paradox regressions are spurious.
Migration under Asymmetric Information and Human Capital Formation
Authors: Chau Nancy H. , Stark Oded
Published: March 2003

We study the migration of skilled workers, along with the skill acquisition incentives created by the prospect of migration. We trace out the dynamics of migration as foreign employers accumulate experience in deciphering the skill levels of individual migrants. It is found that migration by the relatively highly skilled is followed by return‐migration from both tails of the migrant skill distribution; that the possibility of migration induces skill acquisition at home; that until the probability of discovery reaches its steady state equilibrium, migration consists of a sequence of moves characterized by a rising average skill level; and that migration of skilled workers can entail a home‐country welfare gain.
An Inframarginal Analysis of the Ricardian Model
Authors: Cheng Wenli , Sachs Jeffrey , Yang Xiaokai
Published: March 2003

This paper shows that a 2 × 2 Ricardian model has a unique general equilibrium, and the comparative statics of the equilibrium involve discontinuous jumps. If partial division of labor occurs in equilibrium, the country producing both goods would impose a tariff, whereas the country producing a single good would prefer unilateral free trade. If complete division of labor occurs in equilibrium, both countries would negotiate to achieve free trade. In a model with three countries, the country which does not have a comparative advantage relative to the other two countries, and/or which has low transaction efficiency, may be excluded from trade.
Swedish Multinationals and Competition from High‐ and Low‐Wage Locations
Authors: Braconier Henrik , Ekholm Karolina
Published: March 2003

This study uses data on Swedish multinationals to estimate cross‐elasticities of labor demand in different locations. With a vertical decomposition of the firm’s activities, whether there is substitution or complementarity between employment in different parts of the firm will depend on whether wage changes lead to a relocation of activities or simply to changes in marginal costs and/or demand for inputs in other parts of the firms. It is found that there is some evidence of a substitutionary relationship between employment in the Swedish parts of the firms and employment in other high‐income locations, but no evidence of substitution stemming from employment in low‐income locations.
Technical Progress, Price Adjustments, and Wages
Authors: Jones Ronald W.
Published: March 2003

Technical progress that takes place in one country is often soon transmitted to major trading partners, leading to adjustments in equilibrium commodity prices. This paper makes use of the twin concepts of differential industry effects and differential factor effects to ask about the role of each in determining how progress affects real wages. A simple diagram is utilized to illustrate in general settings the importance of factor bias in technology and the elasticity of substitution in demand in the analysis of real wage changes.
The Effect of International Trade on Labor‐Demand Elasticities: Intersectoral Matters
Authors: Jean Sébastien
Published: March 2003

This paper studies the impact of trade on the price‐elasticity of aggregate labor demand, based on the idea that a variation in the cost of (a given type of) labor has an effect on the sectoral trade specialization of an economy, at the expense of the domestic productions using this factor intensively, even when the trade balance is kept unchanged. As this effect is more important the more open the economy, trade openness induces an increase in the associated labor‐demand elasticity, at least if the country has a comparative disadvantage in the industries using intensively the type of labor considered. This argument is illustrated by a simple model, based on an Armington hypothesis, with an empirical assessment for France.
A Dynamic Model of Export Competition, Policy Coordination, and Simultaneous Currency Collapse
Authors: Kasa Kenneth , Huh Chan
Published: March 2003

This paper shows that the “price wars during booms” logic of Rotemberg and Saloner (American Economic Review, vol. 76, 1986, 390–407) provides an explanation of contagious currency crises. The idea is as follows. When a group of countries relies on exports to a common foreign market, pressures for competitive devaluations arise. In response, competing exporters peg their exchange rates to the currency of their export market. However, it must be in each country’s self‐interest to adhere to its peg, and a common adverse external shock can make an existing (implicitly) cooperative arrangement unenforceable. Maintaining the arrangement requires a collective devaluation that reduces the unilateral incentive to devalue.
International Financial Liberalization, Corruption, and Economic Growth
Authors: Rivera‐Batiz Francisco L.
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the effects of capital account liberalization on the long‐run growth of a developing economy. A general‐equilibrium, endogenous growth model is constructed in which corruption forms an integral part of the governance system of the country. By undermining the profitability of innovations, corruption lowers the rate of return to capital and reduces the rate of technological change. The impact of international financial liberalization on long‐run growth in this model can be either positive or negative. A drop in growth is obtained when the level of corruption is high enough to cause domestic rates of return to capital before liberalization to drop below those in the rest of the world. In this case, liberalization generates capital outflows, which act as a constraining force on innovation, reducing the rate of technological change and lowering output growth. On the other hand, if the level of corruption is sufficiently low, the capital account liberalization will serve as a boost to the country’s technical change and growth.
External Economies in the International Trade Theory: A Survey
Authors: Choi Jai–Young , Yu Eden S. H.
Published: March 2003

The paper surveys the international trade literature on intraindustrial and interindustrial production externalities. It places particular emphasis upon the literature on variable returns to scale (VRS) developed along the Kemp line that the externalities are output–generated, and the economies of scale are external (internal) to individual firms (industry). The discussion touches upon the literature examining the implications of VRS for fundamental trade theorems, trade policies, economic growth, and welfare. The paper extends the survey to writings on the Meade–type interindustrial production externalities.
Modeling Speculative Activity in the Hong Kong Residential Property Market
Authors: Ho Winky K.O.
Published: March 2003

Using the Granger definition in a bivariate context, this paper investigates the relation between speculation and real estate prices in Hong Kong. Based on monthly data, the paper shows that in the mass residential property market, speculation and property prices are each integrated of order one, and hence cointegrated. A vector error correction model is then estimated for speculation. The error correction term is found to be statistically significant, implying Granger causality running from property prices to speculation in the mass residential property market. The empirical findings provide evidence that fluctuations in residential property prices cause fluctuations in housing speculation. A long‐term solution to curb speculative activities and stabilize property prices is to increase the supply of housing land, and in turn the supply of private residential property. Steady property supply of will reduce acceleration of property prices and thus restrict speculation.
Simple Rules for the Optimal Taxation of International Capital Income
Authors: Keen Michael , Piekkola Hannu
Published: March 2003

In this paper we reconcile and extend previous results on the collectively optimal taxation of international investment income. The “weighted average” rule of Horst (1980), for example, is shown to rest on unattractive assumptions on the set of instruments available, ruling out any need for distorting taxes. The principal contribution is to establish a new and strikingly simple weighted average rule — encompassing the other key result in this area — for the general case in which lump‐sum taxes are unavailable, the ability to tax pure profits is perhaps restricted and distorting taxes on both domestic and border‐crossing capital income are optimally deployed.
Unemployment Insurance in Theory and Practice
Authors: Holmlund Bertil
Published: March 2003

A hallmark of modern labor economics is the close interplay between the development of theory, data sources and econometric testing. The evolution of the economic analysis of unemployment insurance provides a good illustration. New theoretical approaches, in particular job‐search theory, have inspired a large amount of empirical research, some of it methodologically innovative and most of it highly relevant for economic policy. The paper presents a broad survey and an assessment of the economic analysis of unemployment insurance as it has evolved since the 1970s.
Do Addicts Behave Rationally?
Authors: Fehr Ernst , Zych Peter K.
Published: March 2003

The theory of rational addiction assumes that addicts' behavior is fully rational. Common sense and psychological introspection suggest, however, that addictive behavior is irrational. Without knowledge of the addicts' preferences this dispute cannot be resolved. This paper reports the results of an experiment in which addictive preferences were induced. It turns out that ‘addicts’ consume systematically too much compared to the optimal consumption decision. We explain this systematic excess consumption in terms of the psychologically salient features of addictive goods.
Government Spending and Welfare with Returns to Specialization
Authors: Devereux Michael B. , Head Allen C. , Lapham Beverly J.
Published: March 2003

We explore a novel channel through which government spending can stimulate consumption and welfare through its effects on aggregate productivity, without directly affecting either utility or production possibilities. In the presence of monopolistic competition and increasing returns to specialization, it is shown that government spending can partly alleviate the inefficiencies of monopolistic competition. This is because government spending generates an endogenous increase in total factor productivity by increasing the variety of intermediate goods. If the degree of increasing returns to variety is large enough, a rise in such wasteful government spending may increase consumption levels enough to increase welfare.

JEL classification: E60