bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
What to Do with the Chiang Mai Initiative
Authors: Eichengreen Barry
Published: June 2003

An important instance of regional cooperation in Asia is the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) for swap lines and credits agreed to by the ASEAN+3 countries in May 2000. This agreement reflects the desire to buttress financial stability following the searing crisis of 1997–98 and the recognition that governments can better achieve this collectively than individually. The question is to what end the resources of the CMI will be directed. This paper argues that using the swap lines and credits of the CMI to support a system of common basket pegs for East Asian currencies would not enhance financial stability; to the contrary, it would be a costly mistake. It would be better to devote these resources to a collective effort to develop securities markets in the region, thereby addressing the fundamental problem, of which exchange-rate instability is one symptom.
Financial Markets, Institutions, and Integration in East Asia
Authors: Brouwer Gordon de
Published: June 2003

East Asia has enormous scope to upgrade and integrate its financial markets, covering the spectrum of equity, bond, foreign-exchange, and derivatives markets. Financial markets and institutions in East Asia tend to be narrow and undeveloped, although there are important exceptions. Japan dominates the top tier of the region's markets by virtue of its size, but its markets are not advanced, and many of its private institutions are weak. Although the markets in Australia, Hong Kong SAR, and Singapore are smaller than those of Japan, they are more innovative, market-oriented, and technologically advanced. Markets in Malaysia, South Korea, Taiwan, and Thailand have made substantial progress to varying degrees; but China, Indonesia, and the Philippines have a considerable way to go in developing the information and governance infrastructure that financial markets need to function well. For all these countries, there is a clear role for regional cooperation among policymakers in building capacity in, and links between, financial markets in East Asia, as well as in encouraging stable speculation and the participation of nonresident and institutional investors in domestic financial markets. ASEAN+3 is an important and welcome advance in regional cooperation, but its membership does not span the depth of experience in financial markets and institutions that exists in East Asia.
Can Information and Communication Technology Solve Japan's Productivity Slowdown Problem?
Authors: Nishimura Kiyohiko G. , Shirai Masato
Published: June 2003

This paper has three parts. First, we compile a new industry-by-industry data set of the Japanese economy in which information and communication technology (ICT) stocks are explicitly estimated and labor inputs are disaggregated with respect to age and education. Second, we investigate the effect of ICT on various labor inputs and discern for which labor inputs ICT is able to substitute. Third, we estimate the contribution of capital stocks, including ICT, and various labor inputs to the value-added growth of the Japanese economy in the 1980s and 1990s and explore the factors that determine technological progress.

We find ICT capital stocks are an important substitute for young workers with low education levels. These results strongly suggest that ICT investment is an effective way to counter the prospective shortage of young workers in Japan. In contrast, we find no compelling evidence of productivity-enhancing ICT externality. On the contrary, our results suggest that ICT has a negative indirect effect on productivity. The past technological and managerial strengths of Japanese firms, which have been based on workers' learning by doing in the workplace, may no longer be advantages as knowledge management systems improve and become easily transferred across international borders.
China's Nonperforming Loans and National Comprehensive Liability
Authors: Gang Fan
Published: June 2003

The paper presents a comprehensive analysis of China's financial situation. The main conclusion is that the financial risk of the Chinese economy is less serious than one might have predicted based on the level of the banks' nonperforming loans (NPLs), which is equivalent to 40 percent of China's GDP. If government debt (amounting to 16 percent of GDP) and short-term foreign commercial debt (amounting to 1 percent of GDP) are taken into consideration, China's overall financial risk can be regarded as still manageable, given current growth rates. This explains why China continues to enjoy financial stability despite the high level of NPLs. The paper also suggests that the correct policy for forcing reform of banks and state-owned enterprises is to keep the NPLs on their balance sheets, rather than to “swap” them into government accounts.
Thailand's Macroeconomic Policy after July 1997
Authors: Nidhiprabha Bhanupong
Published: June 2003

The Bank of Thailand could have eased its monetary policy to prevent a slowdown in 2001. An expansionary monetary policy or budget deficit financed by money creation can spur growth in Thailand during recession, provided the Thai central bank does not intervene in the foreign-exchange market. The baht-dollar exchange rate cannot be disengaged from the yen-dollar rate by central bank intervention in the long term. Monetary policy seems to be more effective than other policy alternatives during the current debt deflation episode in Thailand.
Improving Japan's Financial System, with Emphasis on Reforming the Postal Savings Business
Authors: Okina Yuri
Published: June 2003

The crisis facing Japan's banking sector has been attributed to a wide range of factors: (1) the run-up and collapse of the bubble; (2) a lack of adequate supervision of financial institutions by the government; (3) the stagnation of the economy, because the Japanese growth model is no longer relevant; and (4) bad management of the banks. It is important to reform corporate governance in the real sector, not merely in the financial sector. It should also be recognized that Japan's financial system should reduce the size of the safety net provided by the government not only through the deposit insurance system, but also through the enormous postal savings business.
Intra- to Multidecadal Climate Variability over the Continental United States: 1932–99
Authors: Mauget Steven A.
Published: June 2003

Trend analysis is used frequently in climate studies, but it is vulnerable to a number of conceptual shortcomings. This analysis of U.S. climate division data uses an alternate approach. The method used here subjects time series of annual average temperature and total precipitation to tests of Mann–Whitney U statistics over moving sampling windows of intra- to multidecadal (IMD) duration. In applying this method to time series of nationally averaged annual rainfall, a highly significant incidence of wet years is found after the early 1970s. When applied to individual climate divisions this test provides the basis for a climate survey method that is more robust than linear trend analysis, and capable of objectively isolating the timing and location of major IMD climate events over the United States. From this survey, four such periods emerge between 1932 and 1999: the droughts of the 1930s and 1950s, a cool 1964–79 period, and wet–warm time windows at the end of the century. More circumstantial consideration was also given here to the state of ENSO, the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the winter state of the North Atlantic Oscillation, and mean annual Northern Hemisphere surface temperature during those periods. Anecdotal evidence presented here suggests that wet years associated with warm-phase ENSO conditions and the positive phase of the PDO may have played a role in ending the drought periods of the 1930s and 1950s. Conversely, the La Niña–like climate impacts found here during the late 1940s to mid-1950s, and the increased incidence of cold phase ENSO and negative phase PDO conditions during that time, suggests connections between that ocean state and severe drought. Significant late-century warmth was found mainly in the western United States after the mid-1980s, but no evidence of a cooling trend was evident in the southeast, as reported elsewhere. The late-century wet regime appears to have occurred in two phases, with wetness confined to the east during 1972–79, and more concentrated in the southwest and central United States during 1982–99.
Arctic Sea Ice and Freshwater Changes Driven by the Atmospheric Leading Mode in a Coupled Sea Ice–Ocean Model
Authors: Zhang Xiangdong , Ikeda Moto , Walsh John E.
Published: June 2003

Observational and modeling studies have indicated recent large changes of sea ice and hydrographic properties in the Arctic Ocean. However, the observational database is sufficiently sparse that the mechanisms responsible for the recent changes are not fully understood. A coupled Arctic ocean–sea ice model forced by output from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis is employed to investigate the role that the leading atmospheric mode has played in the recent changes of the Arctic Ocean. A modified Arctic Oscillation (AO) index is derived for the region poleward of 62.5°N in order to avoid ambiguities in the distinction between the conventional AO and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. The model results indicate that the AO is the driver of many of the changes manifested in the recent observations. The model shows reductions of Arctic sea ice area and volume by 3.2% and 8.8%, respectively, when the AO changes from its negative to its positive phase. Concurrently, freshwater storage decreases by about 2%, while the sea ice and freshwater exports via Fram Strait increase substantially. The changes of sea ice and freshwater storage are strikingly asymmetric between the east and the west Arctic. Notable new findings include 1) the interaction of the dynamic and thermodynamic responses in the sense that changes of sea ice growth and melt are driven by, and feed back negatively to, the dynamically (transport) driven changes of sea ice volume; and 2) the compatibility of the associated freshwater changes with recently observed changes in the salinity of the upper Arctic Ocean, thereby explaining the observed salinity variations by a mechanism that is distinct from, but complementary to, the altered circulation of Siberian river water. In addition, the enhanced freshwater export could be a contributing factor to the increased salinity in the Arctic Ocean. The results of the simulations indicate that Arctic sea ice and freshwater distributions change substantially if one phase of the AO predominates over a decadal timescale. However, such results are based on an idealization of the real-world situation, in which the pattern of forcing varies interannually and the number of positive-AO years varies among decades.
Interannual Variability of the Western North Pacific Summer Monsoon: Differences between ENSO and Non-ENSO Years
Authors: Chou Chia , Tu Jien-Yi , Yu Jia-Yuh
Published: June 2003

The interannual variability of the western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon is examined for the non-ENSO, ENSO developing, and ENSO decaying years, respectively. The ENSO developing (decaying) year is defined as the year before (after) the mature phase of ENSO, and the non-ENSO year is defined as the year that is neither the ENSO developing year nor the ENSO decaying year. A strong (weak) WNP summer monsoon tends to occur during the El Niño (La Niña) developing year and a weak (strong) WNP summer monsoon tends to occur during the El Niño (La Niña) decaying year. In all non-ENSO, ENSO developing, and ENSO decaying years, the strong (weak) WNP summer monsoon is associated with the positive (negative) rainfall anomalies, cold (warm) sea surface temperature anomalies, warm (cold) upper-tropospheric temperature anomalies, low (high) surface pressure anomalies, and a low-level cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation anomaly over the subtropical WNP. The 850-hPa wave train associated with the WNP and east Asian (EA) summer monsoons in the non-ENSO, ENSO developing, and ENSO decaying years extends northward and suggests a possible teleconnection between the WNP summer monsoon and the North American climate. The wave train extended into the Southern Hemisphere in the non-ENSO and ENSO developing years implies a teleconnection between the WNP summer monsoon and the Australian winter climate. The anomalous WNP monsoon in the non-ENSO and ENSO developing years exists only in summer, while the anomalous WNP monsoon in the ENSO decaying year persists from the beginning of the year to the summer season. The anomalous WNP summer monsoon exhibits a strong ocean–atmosphere interaction, especially in the ENSO decaying year. This study suggests that the anomalous WNP summer monsoon in the non-ENSO year is associated with the variation of the meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere, while the anomalous WNP summer monsoon in the ENSO developing and decaying years is associated with ENSO-related SST anomalies.
Effect of Exclusion of Anomalous Tropical Stations on Temperature Trends from a 63-Station Radiosonde Network, and Comparison with Other Analyses
Authors: Angell James K.
Published: June 2003

A 63-station radiosonde network has been used for many years to estimate temperature variations and trends at the surface and in the 850–300-, 300–100-, and 100–50-mb layers of climate zones, both hemispheres, and the globe, but with little regard for the quality of individual station data. In this paper, nine tropical radiosonde stations in this network are identified as anomalous based on unrepresentatively large standard-error-of-regression values for 300–100-mb trends for the period 1958–2000. In the Tropics the exclusion of the 9 anomalous stations from the 63-station network for 1958–2000 results in a warming of the 300–100-mb layer rather than a cooling, a doubling of the warming of the 850–300-mb layer to a value of 0.13 K decade−1, and a greater warming at 850–300-mb than at the surface. The global changes in trend are smaller, but include a change to the same warming of the surface and the 850–300-mb layer during 1958–2000. The effect of the station exclusions is much less for 1979–2000, suggesting that most of the data problems are before this time. Temperature trends based on the 63-station network are compared with the Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and other radiosonde trends, and agreement is better after the exclusion of the anomalous stations. There is consensus that in the Tropics the troposphere has warmed slightly more than the surface during 1958–2000, but that there has been a warming of the surface relative to the troposphere during 1979–2000. Globally, the warming of the surface and the troposphere are essentially the same during 1958–2000, but during 1979–2000 the surface warms more than the troposphere. During the latter period the radiosondes indicate considerably more low-stratospheric cooling in the Tropics than does the MSU.
Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Dynamical Processes in the Tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans and the TBO
Authors: Meehl Gerald A. , Arblaster Julie M. , Loschnigg Johannes
Published: June 2003

The transitions (from relatively strong to relatively weak monsoon) in the tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) occur in northern spring for the south Asian or Indian monsoon and northern fall for the Australian monsoon involving coupled land–atmosphere–ocean processes over a large area of the Indo-Pacific region. Transitions from March–May (MAM) to June–September (JJAS) tend to set the system for the next year, with a transition to the opposite sign the following year. Previous analyses of observed data and GCM sensitivity experiments have demonstrated that the TBO (with roughly a 2–3-yr period) encompasses most ENSO years (with their well-known biennial tendency). In addition, there are other years, including many Indian Ocean dipole (or zonal mode) events, that contribute to biennial transitions. Results presented here from observations for composites of TBO evolution confirm earlier results that the Indian and Pacific SST forcings are more dominant in the TBO than circulation and meridional temperature gradient anomalies over Asia. A fundamental element of the TBO is the large-scale east–west atmospheric circulation (the Walker circulation) that links anomalous convection and precipitation, winds, and ocean dynamics across the Indian and Pacific sectors. This circulation connects convection over the Asian–Australian monsoon regions both to the central and eastern Pacific (the eastern Walker cell), and to the central and western Indian Ocean (the western Walker cell). Analyses of upper-ocean data confirm previous results and show that ENSO El Niño and La Niña events as well as Indian Ocean SST dipole (or zonal mode) events are often large-amplitude excursions of the TBO in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, respectively, associated with anomalous eastern and western Walker cell circulations, coupled ocean dynamics, and upper-ocean temperature and heat content anomalies. Other years with similar but lower-amplitude signals in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans also contribute to the TBO. Observed upper-ocean data for the Indian Ocean show that slowly eastward-propagating equatorial ocean heat content anomalies, westward-propagating ocean Rossby waves south of the equator, and anomalous cross-equatorial ocean heat transports contribute to the heat content anomalies in the Indian Ocean and thus to the ocean memory and consequent SST anomalies, which are an essential part of the TBO.
GPCP Pentad Precipitation Analyses: An Experimental Dataset Based on Gauge Observations and Satellite Estimates
Authors: Xie Pingping , Janowiak John E. , Arkin Phillip A. , Adler Robert , Gruber Arnold , Ferraro Ralph , Huffman George J. , Curtis Scott
Published: June 2003

As part of the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), analyses of pentad precipitation have been constructed on a 2.5° latitude–longitude grid over the globe for a 23-yr period from 1979 to 2001 by adjusting the pentad Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) against the monthly GPCP-merged analyses. This adjustment is essential because the precipitation magnitude in the pentad CMAP is not consistent with that in the monthly CMAP or monthly GPCP datasets primarily due to the differences in the input data sources and merging algorithms, causing problems in applications where joint use of the pentad and monthly datasets is necessary. First, pentad CMAP-merged analyses are created by merging several kinds of individual data sources including gauge-based analyses of pentad precipitation, and estimates inferred from satellite observations. The pentad CMAP dataset is then adjusted by the monthly GPCP-merged analyses so that the adjusted pentad analyses match the monthly GPCP in magnitude while the high-frequency components in the pentad CMAP are retained. The adjusted analyses, called the GPCP-merged analyses of pentad precipitation, are compared to several gauge-based datasets. The results show that the pentad GPCP analyses reproduced spatial distribution patterns of total precipitation and temporal variations of submonthly scales with relatively high quality especially over land. Simple applications of the 23-yr dataset demonstrate that it is useful in monitoring and diagnosing intraseasonal variability. The Pentad GPCP has been accepted by the GPCP as one of its official products and is being updated on a quasi-real-time basis.
Comparative Influence of Snow and SST Variability on Extratropical Climate in Northern Winter
Authors: Kumar Arun , Yang Fanglin
Published: June 2003

In this study the influence of snow on atmospheric seasonal mean variability in the extratropical latitudes during boreal winter was studied. The motivation for this analysis was to understand the characteristics of low-frequency atmospheric variability in the extratropical latitudes, and to assess if the interannual variations in snow could lead to potential predictability on seasonal timescales. The influence of snow on atmospheric variability was assessed from a suite of atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) simulations where snow depth amount was either prescribed to a seasonally varying climatology, or was allowed to evolve during the model integration. Further, the influence of snow variability was contrasted with the influence of interannual variability in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on the atmospheric flow.

A systematic influence of snow variability on the atmospheric seasonal mean variability was found. For example, for the GCM simulations in which snow amount and its extent were allowed to evolve freely, the interannual variability of surface air temperature was found to be larger. The influence of snow variability, however, was confined to the lower troposphere, and little change in the interannual variability of upper-tropospheric circulation, for example, 200-hPa heights, occurred. This bottom-up vertical structure of the influence of snow on the atmospheric variability was in contrast to the top-down influence of tropical SST variability on the extratropical flow.

The cause for the enhancement of atmospheric variability in the lower troposphere was argued to be related to the dependence of surface albedo on snow depth amount. This dependence was such that the interaction between the atmospheric variability and the underlying snow could be viewed as a positive feedback process whereby surface temperature anomalies amplify even further.
Enhanced Seasonal Rainfall in Northern Venezuela and the Extreme Events of December 1999
Authors: Lyon Bradfield
Published: June 2003

Torrential rainfall during December 1999 resulted in devastating floods and landslides along the northern coast of Venezuela. These events occurred in an area with a predominantly dry climate, took place during what is regionally the dry season, and were preceded by unusually heavy seasonal rainfall. An observational study was undertaken in an attempt to identify anomalous features of the climate system associated with both the enhanced seasonal rainfall prior to the landslides as well as the extreme December rainfall events that triggered them. Observational data for the period 1950–99 are used to provide historical context. Results indicate that the copious seasonal rainfall prior to the floods was associated with anomalous conditions in both the tropical Pacific and Atlantic basins similar to past events, although some features were unusually strong in 1999. The extreme daily rainfall in December 1999 was associated with atmospheric circulation features originating in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere that penetrated unusually far into the Tropics. Possible physical mechanisms acting to enhance rainfall on both timescales are discussed.
Using Mean Flow Change as a Proxy to Infer Interdecadal Storm Track Variability
Authors: Chang Edmund K. M. , Fu Yunfei
Published: June 2003

Several recent studies, based mainly on analyses of reanalysis data, have suggested that the Northern Hemisphere storm tracks have intensified during the second half of the twentieth century. However, comparisons with rawinsonde observations over land areas suggest that eddy variance/covariance statistics may contain spurious jumps that had led to an exaggeration of the storm track secular trend. In this study, storm track variations are inferred from mean flow anomalies using canonical correlation analysis (CCA). A CCA model relating storm track anomalies to mean flow anomalies is derived using recent, more reliable data. The model is then applied to infer storm track anamalies using mean flow anomalies for earlier periods, when storm track analyses are deemed more suspect (or even nonexistent).

Results of the CCA analyses suggest that the strong secular trend observed over the Atlantic basin and Europe is consistent with mean flow anomalies, while CCA predictions based on mean flow changes suggest only a much weaker trend in the Pacific storm track activity than that present in the reanalysis data. Over the regions where comparisons with rawinsonde data can be made, the interdecadal trends inferred by the CCA model are quite consistent with rawinsonde data over the Pacific storm track entrance and exit regions, as well as the Atlantic storm track exit regions, but are inconsistent with rawinsonde observations and reanalysis data over northeastern North America, where CCA predictions are generally poor.

A CCA hindcast based on Trenberth and Paolino mean sea level pressure data as a predictor shows no indication that the secular increase in storm track intensity extends further back prior to 1960, suggesting that during the entire twentieth century, storm track activity was weakest during the 1960s.
Equatorial Atlantic Rain Frequency: An Intercentennial Comparison
Authors: Short David A.
Published: June 2003

Analyses of the frequency of rain occurrence over the equatorial Atlantic Ocean from two sources are compared: a nineteenth-century journal publication based on ship's logbook entries, and a 3-yr average, 1998–2000, of observations from the precipitation radar aboard the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission satellite observatory. The sources agree remarkably well on the position and shape of the equatorial maximum, with a correlation coefficient of 0.99. However, the magnitudes differ by about a factor of 2, with the modern estimate being lower. This disparity is likely to be attributable to characteristics of the observing systems. The radar sensitivity and scanning characteristics combine to underestimate rain occurrence. The precise nature of the nineteenth-century sources are not documented; however, they almost certainly have been incorporated into the Comprehensive Ocean–Atmosphere Data Set (COADS).
Deadly Demographics: Population Characteristics and Forecasting Homicide Trends
Authors: Fox James Alan , Piquero Alex R.
Published: June 2003

Violence research has identified demographic subgroups—distinguished by age, race and gender—having widely varying rates of offending. According to the demographic hypothesis used in criminology, as these segments grow or contract in proportionate size, the aggregate offending rate tends to rise or fall as a result. In this article, we use data from the Supplementary Homicide Reports from 1976 through 1999 to assess the extent to which demographic change can account for the massive drop in homicide rates that occurred during the 1990s, and then attempt to develop a demographically based forecast of future trends in murder.
Prisoner Reentry: What Works, What Does Not, and What Is Promising
Authors: Seiter Richard P. , Kadela Karen R.
Published: June 2003

During the past decade, there has been a renewed interest in prisoner reentry. This is due to a change in many of the factors surrounding the release of prisoners and their reentry to the community. These changes include a modification of sentencing from the use of parole to determinate release with fewer ex-offenders having supervision in the community, an increased emphasis on surveillance rather than assistance for those under supervision, less community stability and availability of community social service support, and dramatically larger numbers returning to the community. More releasees are being violated and returned to the community than ever before. Therefore, it is important to identify prisoner reentry programs that work. We define reentry, categorize reentry programs, and use the Maryland Scale of Scientific Method to determine the effectiveness of program categories. We conclude that many such categories are effective in aiding reentry and reducing recidivism.
The Effect of Drug Court Programming on Recidivism: the Cincinnati Experience
Authors: Listwan Shelley Johnson , Sundt Jody L. , Holsinger Alexander M. , Latessa Edward J.
Published: June 2003

The impetus of the drug court movement can be traced to a number of factors, such as the social and organizational costs of imprisonment and the literature surrounding the effectiveness of community-based treatment. Regardless of its origins, however, drug courts have altered the way in which court systems process drug cases and respond to drug-dependent offenders. Evaluations of U.S. drug courts are beginning to emerge, and although the outcome results are encouraging, not all courts are showing a reduction in rearrest rates. Despite the rapid expansion of drug courts, their growing prevalence, and popularity, little is known about the drug court model's ability to achieve its objectives in a variety of circumstances. This research adds to the literature on drug courts by examining the effect of drug court programming on multiple indicators of recidivism. Results of the study are mixed; however, the drug court treatment group did perform better when examining arrest for a drug-related offense.
Detangling Individual-, Partner-, and Community-level Correlates of Partner Violence
Authors: Van Wyk Judy A. , Benson Michael L. , Fox Greer Litton , DeMaris Alfred
Published: June 2003

This article attempted to identify neighborhood- partner- and individual-level factors that may lead to male-to-female partner violence. The relevant dimensions of community context were derived from social disorganization theory that indicates that disorganized areas lack formal and informal controls that inhibit street violence. Social disorganization theory predicts that there is a higher rate of violence and social isolation in disorganized areas. At the individual level, women who experience less social support will more likely be victimized by partner violence. This article investigates the direct and interactive effects of social disorganization measures and variables from social support theories on male-to-female partner violence. The data come from Wave 2 of the National Survey of Families and Households completed in 1994 and from the 1990 census. Logistic regression was used to assess variation in the independent and dependent variables between and within neighborhood types. Results indicate that neighborhood effects interact with partner- and individual-level characteristics for a more complete explanation for male-to-female partner violence.
Perceptions About the Criminalization of Elder Abuse among Police Chiefs and Ombudsmen
Authors: Payne Brian K. , Berg Bruce L.
Published: June 2003

The 1990s witnessed the criminalization of elder abuse. This criminalization included the creation of mandatory-reporting legislation, increased penalties for elder abusers, and modifications in criminal procedures for older victims. Little attention has been given to those officials actually involved in deciding how elder abuse cases should be handled. This research considers the sanctions recommended by police chiefs and ombudsmen for six different types of offenses against seniors. Attention is also directed toward potential differences between the groups' attitudes about elder abuse. Results indicate that ombudsmen see nursing home offenses as more severe than street offenses or white-collar offenses. Police chiefs see street offenses as the most severe offense type. Implications are provided.
Trouble in the School Yard: a Study of the Risk Factors of Victimization at School
Authors: Schreck Christopher J. , Miller J. Mitchell , Gibson Chris L.
Published: June 2003

The victimization of students at school is currently a matter of grave public concern. This study attempts to identify factors that single out junior and senior high school students as victims of campus theft and violent crime. Previous research indicates that victimization risk can flow from a variety of situational and individual variables, although this research has not focused on victimization in the school setting. To test which factors are most salient at school, we employed the 1993 National Household and Education Survey, School Safety and Discipline component (NHES-SSD). We found that although community variables exert some effect on schoolyard victimization risk, risk levels are associated with the presence of likely offenders at school as well as individual students who have delinquent characteristics and criminal associates. The attempts of schools to protect students through target-hardening strategies (e.g., metal detectors and security guards) were consistently unsuccessful.
Issues in the Production and Dissemination of Gang Statistics: an Ethnographic Study of a Large Midwestern Police Gang Unit
Authors: Katz Charles M.
Published: June 2003

Although there has been a great deal of public debate concerning matters related to gang data, there has been little research investigating the process by which these data are collected and disseminated. This article uses a multimethodological approach to explore the issues in the production and dissemination of gang statistics in one midwestern gang unit. Unlike previous research examining gang data, the findings of this study did not reveal that the production of gang statistics was influenced, or manipulated, for the benefit of the police organization. Instead, the construction of gang statistics was influenced by serious abnormalities in internal information processing. Gang statistics were not found to be the product of the application of official definitions, or even informal definitions but rather were the product of inadequate communication within the gang unit and between the gang unit and its operating environment.
Rationing Decisions and Individual Responsibility for Illness: Are all Lives Equal?
Authors: Wittenberg Eve , Goldie Sue J. , Fischhoff Baruch , Graham John D.
Published: June 2003

Objectives. This survey measured individuals' rationing allocation choices for situations in which patients are deemed to hold personal responsibility for their diseases and the influence of different arguments on such choices. Methods. The association between allocation decisions for liver disease and asthma and the belief that a patient was responsible for his or her illness was modeled using multivariable regression analysis, controlling for the effect of arguments on choices. Results. In data from 310 returned surveys (43% response rate), respondents were 10 to 17 times more likely to allocate liver transplants or asthma treatment to patients they deemed not responsible for their illnesses than to patients they deemed responsible for their conditions (liver transplants: odds ratio [OR] = 10.3, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.5-42.1; asthma: OR = 16.8, 95% CI = 2.1-136.6). Conclusions. Personal responsibility for illness was an important consideration in respondents' rationing allocation decisions. These choices appeared to be stable although possibly influenced by respondents' interpretations of the survey scenarios and decision tasks.
“Perfect Health” versus “Disease Free”: The Impact of Anchor Point Choice on the Measurement of Preferences and the Calculation of Disease-Specific Disutilities
Authors: King Joseph T. , Styn Mindi A. , Tsevat Joel , Roberts Mark S.
Published: June 2003

Background. During preference testing, some investigators use “perfect health” as the upper anchor point of their measurement scale (“Q scale”), whereas others use “disease free” (“q scale”), which can confound the interpretation and comparison of study results. Methods. We measured current health preferences among 74 patients with cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) on both the Q and q scales using the visual analogue scale (VAS), standard gamble (SG), time tradeoff (TTO), and willingness to pay (WTP). Results. There were significant differences in mean Q and q scale values for the VAS, SG, and WTP (for all, P < 0.011); there were no significant differences for mean TTO values (P = 0.592). CSM accounted for 63% to 82% of total disutility, whereas other comorbidities accounted for 28% to 37%. Conclusions. Preferences for CSM differ when measured on the Q and q scales. Caution should be used when comparing and interpreting health values measured on scales with different upper anchors.
Unexplained Complaints in General Practice: Prevalence, Patients' Expectations, and Professionals' Test-Ordering Behavior
Authors: van der Weijden Trudy , van Velsen Monique , Dinant Geert-Jan , van Hasselt Cathelijne M. , Grol Richard
Published: June 2003

Objective. To gain insight into general practitioners' (GPs) test-ordering behavior for patients presenting with unexplained complaints. An unexplained complaint's symptoms are not alarming, and there is no plausible medical or psychosocial explanation for it. The Dutch College of General Practitioners (DCGP) recommends a watchful, waiting attitude for test ordering for unexplained complaints. Methods. Observational, cross-sectional study of 567 doctor-patient consultations performed by 21 GPs. Results. On average, 13% of consultations involved complaints considered unexplained by GPs. Unexplained complaints were positively related to test ordering (adjusted odds ratio [OR] = 2.4, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.1-5.3), despite the DCGP's recommendation. Patients' expectations about testing influenced test ordering even more (adjusted OR = 4.1, 95% CI 2.2-7.6). Discussion. Unexplained complaints happen daily in general practice. Besides the DCGP's recommendation, factors such as GPs' desire to understand complaints and patients' expectations seem to have impacts. Guideline development and quality improvement projects should respect, next to Bayesian rules, GP- and patient-related determinants of test ordering.
A Potential Error in Evaluating Cancer Screening: A Comparison of 2 Approaches for Modeling Underlying Disease Progression
Authors: Goldie Sue J. , Kuntz Karen M.
Published: June 2003

Background. Evaluating cancer screening often requires modeling the underlying disease process and not observed disease, particularly in the absence of direct evidence linking screening to a survival benefit. Methods. To illustrate a potential error in modeling disease progression among healthy persons with a history of a precancerous lesion, we constructed 2 models with 4 basic health states (disease free, presence of a precancerous lesion, presence of cancer, dead), calibrated to predict the same 10-year cancer incidence. We assumed a homogeneous cohort enters each model free of disease, the probability of developing a precancerous lesion was greater for patients with a history of a prior lesion, and the screening test was perfect and riskless. In one model, we assigned a higher transition probability from a precancerous lesion to cancer in those with a history of a previously removed lesion; in the other, we assumed it was equal to those with no history. Results. Using the 1st model, life expectancy without screening was 2.4 months longer than with screening. This error did not occur using the 2nd model, in which the transition from precancerous lesions to cancer was not conditional on a history of a lesion. This modeling error's magnitude was examined under a variety of assumptions. Conclusions. We have identified an important error to avoid when modeling the underlying disease process in evaluating screening programs for cancers associated with precancerous states.
Properties of the Cumulative Risk-Adjusted Mortality (CRAM) Chart, Including the Number of Deaths Before a Doubling of the Death Rate is Detected
Authors: Sismanidis Charalambos , Bland Martin , Poloniecki Jan
Published: June 2003

The cumulative risk-adjusted mortality (CRAM) chart is intended to detect changes in the failure rate in a sequence of trials when the relative risk but not the absolute risk of failure at each trial is known. For example, surgical mortality can be monitored taking into account the heterogeneity of patients and procedures. We simulate abrupt change to twice or half the previous failure rate and series with no change. As with any control procedure, changes are eventually signaled whether or not real changes have occurred. With initial mean failure rates ranging from 1% to 25%, the median number of failures before a doubling is signaled is about 20 (i.e., about 10 extra failures) and is nearly independent of the extent of heterogeneity in the series. CRAM chart calculations give an estimate of the risk of failure at the next trial, and we document the performance of this estimate.
A Bayesian Approach to Aid in Formulary Decision Making: Incorporating Institution-Specific Cost-Effectiveness Data with Clinical Trial Results
Authors: Reed Shelby D. , Dillingham Peter W. , Briggs Andrew H. , Veenstra David L. , Sullivan Sean D.
Published: June 2003

Pharmacy and therapeutics committees commonly cite a lack of generalizability as a reason for not incorporating cost-effectiveness information into decision making. To address this concern, many committees undertake site-specific economic evaluations, which are often limited by small sample sizes and nonrandomized designs. We show how 2 complementary approaches were used to minimize these limitations in an economic evaluation of abciximab at 1 institution. Using a propensity score methodology, we selected patients who did not receive abciximab for the comparison cohort. Then, we adopted a Bayesian, hierarchical, random-effects model to integrate site-specific and clinical trial data. We applied the posterior distributions of effectiveness with local cost data in a traditional decision-analytic model. In 74% of the simulations, abciximab was cost-effective at 1 institution at the $50,000 per life year saved threshold, assuming a 50:50 split of patients undergoing coronary stenting and angioplasty. Among patients undergoing coronary stenting, the cost-effectiveness ratio of the addition of abciximab was at or below the $50,000 per life year saved threshold in 66.0% of the simulations.
Nonholonomic Motion Planning for Coupled Planar Rigid Bodies with Passive Revolute Joints
Authors: Shiroma Naoji , Arai Hirohiko , Tanie Kazuo
Published: June 2003

Motion planning for coupled rigid bodies in a horizontal plane is investigated. The rigid bodies are serially connected by passive revolute joints. The dynamic constraints on the system are second-order nonholonomic constraints. We attempted to control those n coupled rigid bodies by the translational acceleration inputs at the first joint. If each rigid body is hinged at the center of percussion, it is possible to compose a positioning trajectory by connecting rotational and translational trajectory segments. Each rigid body can be rotated about its center of percussion one after another. When all of the rigid bodies are aligned on a straight line, they can be translated. The algorithm for positioning is presented. Simulations show that the coupled planar rigid bodies can reach the desired configuration by the constructed inputs.
Human-Robot Cooperative Manipulation Using a Virtual Nonholonomic Constraint
Authors: Takubo Tomohito , Arai Hirohiko , Hayashibara Yasuo , Tanie Kazuo
Published: June 2003

A robotic assistance system is presented which enables a human to handle unwieldy long objects by providing only one point of support. The robot grasps one end of the object and helps the human operator carry it at the other end. The proposed control method uses a virtual nonholonomic constraint. The movement of the object is constrained as if it were being carried on a wheel attached to the object. This method prevents the object from slipping sideways and simplifies the carrying operation. In spite of the constraint, the object can reach any position and orientation due to the nonholonomy. Cooperative manipulation in a horizontal plane is considered first, and then it is extended to 6-DoF manipulation in 3-D space. Experimental results show that an operator can easily handle a long object when aided by the robot.
Controllability of Under-Actuated Planar Manipulators with One Unactuated Joint
Authors: Kobayashi Keigo , Yoshikawa Tsuneo
Published: June 2003

This paper is concerned with analysis on controllability for a class of nonholonomic systems. We discuss controllability of underactuated planar manipulators with one unactuated joint. We show that if the first joint (in the base side) is actuated, these systems are completely controllable, namely, there exists an admissible trajectory from any given initial point to any given final point. In order to prove this, we use global stabilizing feedback control law to converge the state to a manifold, where the system is locally controllable. By this controller, we have two trajectories, one starting at the given initial position and the other starting at the given final position. Then we connect them using a kind of bi-directional approach to show the existence of the whole admissible trajectory. Finally, we give some simulation results to discuss controllability of more general cases, the first joint being actuated and all other joints being unactuated.
Design, Analysis and Control of a Wheeled Mobile Robot with a Nonholonomic Spherical CVT
Authors: Kim Jungyun , Park F.C. , Park Yeongil
Published: June 2003

This article reports on the design, analysis and control of a new type of wheeled mobile robot based on a nonholonomic spherical continuously variable transmission (S-CVT). Our S-CVT based mobile robot is designed to increase the run time (i.e., the length of time in which the robot can be operated), and to achieve full planar accessibility with the design of a novel pivoting device that takes advantage of the flexibility of the S-CVT. We examine the sources of power loss in the S-CVT, in particular spin loss. For a quantitative analysis of spin loss of the S-CVT, we develop a friction model for the S-CVT, and perform an in-depth contact analysis based on the relative velocity field and normal pressure distribution. We also present a nonlinear shifting controller based on feedback linearization that takes into account the dynamics of the S-CVT. To evaluate the energy efficiency of our mobile robot and the performance of the S-CVT as a machine element, we perform experiments with a hardware prototype. The results are benchmarked numerically with a differential drive type mobile robot equipped with a reduction gear.
Trajectory Planning and Control for Planar Robots with Passive Last Joint
Authors: De Luca Alessandro , Oriolo Giuseppe
Published: June 2003

We present a method for trajectory planning and control of planar robots with a passive rotational last joint. These underactuated mechanical systems, which are subject to nonholonomic second-order constraints, are shown to be fully linearized and input-output decoupled by means of a nonlinear dynamic feedback. This objective is achieved in a unified framework, both in the presence or absence of gravity. The linearizing output is the position of the center of percussion of the last link. Based on this result, one can plan smooth trajectories joining in finite time any initial and desired final state of the robot; in particular, transfers between inverted equilibria and swing-up maneuvers under gravity are easily obtained. We also address the problem of avoiding the singularity induced by the dynamic linearization procedure through a careful choice of output trajectories. A byproduct of the proposed method is the straightforward design of exponentially stable tracking controllers for the generated trajectories. Simulation results are reported for a 3R robot moving in a horizontal and vertical plane. Possible extensions of the approach and its relationships with the differential flatness technique are briefly discussed.
On Motion Planning for Robotic Manipulation with Permanent Rolling Contacts
Authors: Kiss Bálint , Lévine Jean , Lantos Béla
Published: June 2003

We address the motion planning problem (open-loop trajectory design) for manipulating rigid bodies with permanent rolling contacts without slipping. This problem is related in particular to dextrous manipulation with robotic hands, consisting in changing the position and orientation of the manipulated object together with its grasp. We prove the flatness property for planar structures allowing to solve the motion planning problem by simple interpolation, without need to integrate the system differential equations and without quasi-static approximations. Though this property fails to be valid for general three-dimensional hand structures, similar results can be obtained for special structures thanks to the notion of Liouvillian systems. The links between flat or Liouvillian hand-object structures and non-holonomy of the contacts between fingers and object are also discussed. Several examples are studied in detail.