The analysis of COVID-19 pandemic consequences and the antiviral drug markets under martial law in Ukraine
Authors: Krychkovska A. M. , Parashchyn Zh. D. , Kurka M. S. , Vengryn N. M. , Lubenets V. I. , Solomennyi A. M. , Yaroshenko I. V. 
Published: January 2025

Introduction. The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant influence on the entire world, prompting governments to implement measures aimed at mitigating economic and social losses. The rapid creation of vaccines has helped to curb the virus's spread. However, the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 revealed the necessity of providing the population with domestic medicines and medical devices under martial law. Humanitarian aid from EU countries helped avoid deficiency, yet the lessons from this experience should be carefully considered. Viral diseases pose particular danger during wartime, making it essential to study their impact, the availability of pharmacotherapy on the insurance market, and to analyse registered antiviral medications as part of import substitution.
The purpose of research is to develop new approaches to substantiation the dominant functions of the antiviral market post-COVID-19 and to outline prospects for optimising the import substitution program for medicines within the context of the legal regime of martial law in Ukraine, as illustrated by an analysis of antiviral medication for the needs of the civilian population and personnel of Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Materials and methods. The materials included regulatory and legal acts of the pharmaceutical industry, publicly accessible internet resources (websites) from the Ministry of Health and the State Service of Ukraine on Medicines and Drug Control, the Essential Medicines List (according to WHO guidelines), the Wholesale and Retail Price Register for Medicines, outpatient medical records of patients from healthcare institutions (HCIs), epicrisis extracts from inpatient medical records of HCIs, prescription sheets. The methods used included meta-analysis, comparative analysis, SWOT analysis, statistical data processing methods, synthesis, and modelling.
Results. An analysis of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic was conducted, and the dynamics of the domestic market for insurance medical and pharmaceutical services were studied during and after the end of the pandemic, under the conditions of the introduction of the legal regime of martial law in Ukraine. Statistical data were processed, and the course of the COVID-19 disease was analysed in two separate regional healthcare institutions. The processed medical documentation of health care institutions for 2020-2022 made it possible to determine the number of patients, their distribution by age group, gender, the course and consequences of the disease, the results of treatment completion, as well as analyse groups of medicines for pharmacotherapy. New approaches were developed to substantiate the dominants of the functioning of the antiviral market after the COVID-19 pandemic and in the conditions of the introduction of the legal regime of martial law in Ukraine. Prospects for optimising the import substitution program for medicines were established using the example of the analysis of antiviral medicinal products and by working out the SWOT analysis matrix. Prospects and strategies for the development of this segment of the domestic pharmaceutical market under martial law, aimed at meeting the needs of the civil population and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, have been determined.
Conclusions Substantiated the importance of developing the domestic market for antiviral medicinal products during and after the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as in conditions of introduction of the legal regime of martial law, with an emphasis on the industrial production of these medicines in Ukraine. An analysis of the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the development of insurance services has been conducted, which showed the continuation of the provision of such services by insurance companies even after the reduced morbidity, while it is important to provide antiviral medicines of domestic production. The study of statistical data regarding the incidence of COVID-19 in Ukraine allowed to define the medicines used, emphasising the importance of including antiviral medications in the import substitution program. Necessities to expand production of antiviral medicinal products in Ukraine have been established, using SWOT analysis to determine strategies for the development of this segment of the pharmaceutical market for the civilian population and the Armed Forces of Ukraine.