bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The Dynamics of the India-Asia collision revealed by Geodetic Imaging of the Tibetan plateau
Authors: Wright Tim , Elliott John , Fang Jin , Hooper Andrew , Houseman Greg , Lazecky Milan , Maghsoudi Yasser , Ou Qi , Parsons Barry , Rollins Chris , Styron Richard , Wang Hua , Zheng Gang
Published: March 2022

Assessing the distribution of seismic hazard in the continents requires an understanding of how much deformation is accommodated by major faults. In one view, upper-crustal seismogenic faults respond passively to continuous viscous deformation of the underlying lithosphere; the alternative model is that lithospheric-scale faults control the distribution of deformation and hazard. We combine InSAR data derived from automatic (COMET-LiCSAR) processing of Sentinel-1 data (2015-2021) with a compilation of velocities from GNSS stations to produce the first high-resolution surface velocity field for the Tibetan plateau, where the collision of rigid Indian lithosphere with Eurasia has created the largest deforming region on the planet. We tie the reference frame of InSAR line-of-sight velocities to Eurasia using a joint inversion for surface velocities on a triangular mesh and reference frame adjustment parameters following the approach described in Wang and Wright 2012. We use the referenced InSAR data to invert for high-resolution East-West and Vertical velocities. The results show that the internal deformation of the Tibetan plateau can be described as a combination of distributed deformation and focused strain on a few major faults (Altyn Tagh, Kunlun, Haiyuan, Xianshuihe). We also observe continued postseismic transients associated with earthquakes that occurred within 20 years of the observations, including the 2001 Kokoxili and 1997 Manyi earthquakes. The highest elevations of the Tibetan plateau show dilatation, demonstrating the importance of internal buoyancy forces in continental tectonics. We present a new dynamic model that can explain the key features of the observations.
xWEI – A novel cross-scale index for extreme precipitation events
Authors: Voit Paul , Heistermann Maik
Published: March 2022

How can the extremity of an rainfall event be quantified? Extreme rainfall events are rarely homogeneous regarding rainfall intensities and the spatio-temporal distribution of rainfall can cause flooding on different scales. While small, mountainous catchments can react to short but high-intensity precipitation with flash floods, the same event can also trigger pluvial or fluvial floods on a spatially bigger scale with lower intensity precipitation, leading to compound flood events. Consequently, these cross-scale characteristics of extreme rainfall events are an important factor that should be considered regarding hydrological response or disaster management.

To quantify the extremity of rainfall events while considering the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall, we introduce a new index, xWEI, based on the Weather Extremity Index (WEI). By using precipitation radar data with a high spatial and temporal resolution, we analyzed and evaluated extreme rainfall events in Germany and were able to show essential differences in the performance of the classical approach (WEI) and xWEI. 

This novel cross-scale index, in combination with modern high-resolution precipitation radar data, enables a better identification of extreme events and their characteristics and helps to link them to their impacts.
Effects of land use change for solar park development in the UK on ecosystem services
Authors: Carvalho Fabio , Montag Hannah , Sharp Stuart , White Piran , Clarkson Tom , Armstrong Alona
Published: March 2022

In the rush to decarbonise energy supplies to meet internationally agreed greenhouse gas emissions targets, solar parks (SPs) have proliferated around the world, with uncertain implications for the provision of ecosystem services (ES). SPs necessitate significant land use change due to low energy densities that could significantly affect the local environment. In the UK, SPs are commonly built on intensive arable land and managed as grasslands. This offers both risks and opportunities for ecosystem health, yet evidence of ecosystem consequences is scarce. Therefore, there is an urgent need to understand how ES assessments can be incorporated into land use decision making to promote SP development that simultaneously addresses the climate and biodiversity crises. We aim to provide some of the first scientific evidence to help answer this question by determining the effects of land use change for SPs in the UK on the provision of ecosystem services (e.g., biomass production, soil carbon storage) of hosting ecosystems. Through a Knowledge Transfer Partnership project between Lancaster University and Clarkson & Woods Ecological Consultants, 35 SPs in England and Wales were surveyed in summer 2021. Soil and vegetation data were collected from 420 sample plots (900 cm2) under different types of land use: underneath solar panels, between rows of solar arrays, and control sites (e.g., pastureland, areas set-aside for conservation). Total plant cover was significantly lower underneath solar panels and between solar arrays than on land set-aside for conservation, while land around the margins of SPs showed higher aboveground biomass of monocotyledons and forbs than on land underneath solar panels. Some measures of soil fertility (e.g., nitrogen) and soil organic matter, fractioned into particulate and mineral-associated organic matter, also varied significantly between these different land uses. These results have implications for land management within SPs and will enable optimisation of SP design and management to ensure the long-term delivery of ecosystem services within this fast-growing land use.
Simultaneous Generation of EMIC and MS Waves During the Magnetic Dip in the Inner Magnetosphere
Authors: Huang Zheng , Yuan Zhigang , Yu Xiongdong , Xue Zuxiang , Ouyang Zhihai
Published: March 2022

The Van Allen Probe B satellite simultaneously observed electromagnetic ion cyclotron (EMIC) and fast magnetosonic (MS) waves in a magnetic dip on April 29, 2017. During the magnetic dip, we found the coexistence of flux enhancements of ring current protons (∼11.2–∼51.7 keV) and flux reductions of relativistic electrons (∼1 MeV), which are identified as typical signatures of a magnetic dip in the inner magnetosphere. Based on linear theoretical calculations and observational analysis, the observed ring current protons show an anisotropic temperature distribution and partial shell distribution for different energies during the magnetic dip to provide free energies for the generation of EMIC and MS waves, respectively. Our findings indicate that the complex unstable distribution in the velocity phase space of ring current protons during the magnetic dip can trigger the simultaneous generation of EMIC and MS waves in the inner magnetosphere.
Using mixed layer heat budgets to determine the drivers of the 2015 North Atlantic cold anomaly in ocean state estimates
Authors: Sanders Rachael , Jones Daniel , Josey Simon , Sinha Bablu , Forget Gael
Published: March 2022

Record low surface temperatures were observed in the subpolar North Atlantic during 2015, despite the majority of the global ocean experiencing higher than average surface temperatures. We compute mixed layer temperature budgets in the ECCO Version 4 state estimate to further understand the processes responsible for the North Atlantic cold anomaly. We show that surface forcing was the cause of approximately 75% of the initial cooling in the winter of 2013/14, after which the cold anomaly was sequestered beneath the deep winter mixed layer. Re-emergence of the cold anomaly during the summer/autumn of 2014 was primarily driven by a strong temperature gradient across the base of the mixed layer. Vertical diffusion resulted in approximately 70% of the re-emergence, with entrainment of deeper water driving the remaining 30%. In the summer of 2015, surface warming of the mixed layer was then anomalously low, resulting in the most negative temperature anomalies. Spatial patterns in the budgets show that the initial surface cooling was strongest in the south of the region, due to strong westerly winds related to the positive phase of the East Atlantic Pattern. Subsequent anomalies in surface fluxes associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation were stronger in the north, but the impact on the average temperature of the mixed layer was largely masked by anomalously high winter mixed layer depths.
Impact of embankments for reversing neck cutoff on flow structure in a Zoige meandering river
Authors: Li Zhiwei , Gao Peng , Chen Bang
Published: March 2022

Cutoff occurrence is a pivotal process of the forward long-term evolution of meandering river. Here a neck cutoff occurred unexpectedly in a highly sinuous bend of a meandering river in the Zoige basin on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in July 2018. Nonetheless, for protecting the grassland inside this bend, subsequently two artificial embankments reversed this neck cutoff (backward evolution) in 2018-2019 and strongly affected three-dimensional flow structure according to field surveys using an unmanned aerial vehicle and acoustic Doppler Current Profiler from 2018 to 2021. This rare case for inhibiting natural cutoff remains an unknown geomorphic process, and furthermore the inverse impact of human intervention on an occurred cutoff is still unclear. The artificial earth embankment was breached in the 2019 flood season and left the broken debris at both ends. Soon afterwards the second rockfill embankment was built in the late 2019 to force the flow back to the original bend so far. Some main results are summarized: (i) Flow structure in the new cutoff channel was intensely adjusted in combination with locally increased channel slope by the cutoff and the first earth embankment built in 2019. Conversely, flow velocity and circulation in the upstream straight reach was less affected by neck cutoff and artificial embankments, while the flow velocity in the bend section was obviously adjusted after neck cutoff and two embankments built. The lateral distribution of the maximum velocity and circulation intensity at the apex of the bend are altered. (ii) After the cutoff occurred, the separate zone shifted to the erosion side of the new cutoff channel in 0.3 times channel width in 2019. At the cross-section of the apex, the clockwise circulation was generated with the maximum streamwise velocity close to the outer bank. The maximum streamwise velocity moved to 0.2 times channel width. (iii) The artificial embankment is a driving factor to generate the strong alteration on the bend completeness and hydrodynamic adjustment along the course in this unique case. It is of great importance on understanding the inverse process for implementing engineering measures to restore the original sinuous flow path and sustain an intact meander landscape after a cutoff occurred. Given that the intervention of reversing neck cutoff is a mandatory task required by local people, it is a better choice to wait 2-3 years until the cutoff channel reaching the quasi-equilibrium state.
Improving sub-seasonal forecasts by correcting missing teleconnections using ANN-based post-processing
Authors: van Straaten Chiem , Whan Kirien , Coumou Dim , van den Hurk Bart , Schmeits Maurice
Published: March 2022

Sub-seasonal forecasts are challenging for numerical weather prediction (NWP) and machine learning models alike. Predicting temperature with a lead-time of two or more weeks requires a forward model to integrate multiple complex interactions, like oceanic and land surface conditions that might lead to recurrent or persistent weather patterns. The representation of the relevant interactions is imperfect in NWP models, just as our physical understanding of them. Model predictability can therefore deviate from real predictability for poorly understood reasons, hindering future progress.

This paper combines NWP with machine learning to detect and resolve such imperfect representations. We post-process ECMWF extended range forecasts of high summer temperatures in Europe with a shallow artificial neural network (ANN). Predictors are objectively selected from a large set of atmospheric, oceanic and terrestrial sources of predictability from ERA-5 and ECMWF re-forecast output. In the proposed architecture, the ANN learns to ‘update’ a prior ECMWF-given probability of two-meter temperature exceeding a given threshold. Due to the architecture of the network the magnitude of each correction, like increasing underestimated probabilities, can be attributed to specific predictors at initialization- or forecast-time. We interpret the circumstances in which substantial corrections are made. This reveals, e.g., that a tropical west Pacific sea surface temperature pattern is connected to high monthly average European temperature at a two-week lead-time. This teleconnection pattern is underestimated by the dynamical model and by correcting for this bias the ANN-based post-processing can thus improve forecast skill. We further find that the method does not readily increase skill when applied to other combinations of lead-time, averaging period and threshold, possibly due to non-stationarity in the data, lack of real predictability or lack of a re-forecast set of sufficient length.
Volatile Organic Compounds emission and accumulation from residential wood burning: A case study.
Authors: Desservettaz Maximilien , Stavroulas Iasonas , Liakakou Eleni , Bougiatioti Aikaterini , Koukoulakis Konstantinos , Mihalopoulos Nikolaos , Hatzianastassiou Nikolaos , Sciare Jean , Bourtsoukidis Efstratios
Published: March 2022

Biomass burning is a significant global source of gaseous and particulate matter emissions to the troposphere. Combustion of biomass releases a complex variety of Volatile Organic Compounds (VOC) that can significantly affect local and regional air quality, human health and atmospheric chemical processes. Here, we present wintertime, high temporal resolution observations made with a Proton Transfer Reaction – Time of Flight - Mass Spectrometer (PTR-ToF-MS) at Ioannina, Greece, during December/January 2022. The city of Ioannina is characterized by intense residential wood burning, that in combination with its topography results in magnified accumulation of gaseous pollutants. We report exceptionally high concentrations for a vast range of VOCs (oxygenated VOCs, aromatics, acids, terpenes etc) that are comparable with the ambient concentrations measured in highly polluted megacities globally. By studying the VOC emission source patterns together with other air quality variables monitored in this study, we characterize the different biomass burning sources and evaluate their significance in atmospheric chemistry and human health. 
Slow-slip events destabilize upper-plate and trigger large-magnitude earthquake at the western-end of the Hellenic Subduction System
Authors: Mouslopoulou Vasiliki , Saltogianni Vasso , Bocchini Gian Maria , Cesca Simone , Bedford Jonathan , Dielforder Armin , Oncken Onno , Gianniou Michael , Petersen Gesa
Published: March 2022

Slow slip events (SSEs) in subduction zones can precede large-magnitude earthquakes and may therefore serve as precursor indicators, but the triggering of earthquakes by slow slip remains poorly understood. Here we report on a multidisciplinary dataset that captures a synergy of slow slip events, earthquake swarms and fault-interactions during the ~5 years leading up to the 2018 Mw 6.9 Zakynthos Earthquake at the western termination of the Hellenic Subduction System (HSS). We find that this long-lasting preparatory phase was initiated by a slow-slip event that released, over a period of 4-months, aseismic slip equivalent to a ~Mw 6.4 earthquake on the Hellenic plate-interface. This SSE, which is the first to be reported in the HSS, was associated with mild Coulomb failure stress changes (≤3 kPa) that were nevertheless sufficient to destabilize faults in the overriding plate. Tectonic instability was evidenced by a prolonged (~4 years) period of suppressed b-values (<1), an associated increase in upper-plate seismicity rates on discrete thrust, normal and strike-slip faults, including an earthquake swarm in the epicentral area of the Mw 6.9 earthquake, and another episode of slow-slip immediately preceding the Zakynthos mainshock. We show that this second SSE in 2018 caused stress changes up to 25 kPa in the epicentral area immediately prior to the mainshock, affecting a highly overpressured and mechanically weak forearc, whose state of stress fluctuated between horizontal deviatoric compression and tension during the years preceding the Zakynthos Earthquake. We conclude that this configuration facilitated episodes of aseismic and seismic deformation that ultimately triggered the Zakynthos Earthquake and may characterise other subduction zones globally.
Global deep waters: what we know, what we know we do not know, and what we should do about it
Authors: Heuzé Céline
Published: March 2022

Deep water masses are the driver of the global ocean circulation, critical for transporting oxygen and nutrients throughout the water column, and a crucial mitigator of current climate change. They are also notoriously hard to observe: they form in winter in ice-infested areas, and then travel around the globe too deep for most autonomous instruments to monitor them. Therefore, although they represent at least half of the ocean volume, we still know very little about their circulation and variability.

What we do know is that they are already changing, much faster than expected.

From a ship in the Southern Ocean to models in the Arctic, I will share with you my obsession for these fascinating deep waters; highlight the blind spots that remain; and describe recent and upcoming deep-water-targeting projects that get me excited.
Maximum glacier extent of the Penultimate Glacial Cycle in the Upper Garonne Basin (Pyrenees): new chronological evidence
Authors: Fernandes Marcelo , Oliva Marc , Vieira Gonçalo , Palacios David , Fernández-Fernández José Maria , Delmas Magali , García-Oteyza Julia , Schimmelpfennig Irene , Ventura Josep , Team Aster
Published: March 2022

The Upper Garonne Basin constituted the longest glacier of the Pyrenean ice field during the Late Pleistocene. From the peaks of the axial Pyrenees that exceed 2,800-3,000 m, the Garonne palaeoglacier flowed along ~80 km northwards during the major glacial advances reaching only 420-440 m. This palaeoglacier reached the Pyrenean foreland, at the Loures-Barouse-Barbazan basin (LBBB) where it formed a terminal moraine complex that is examined in this work. We have constrained the timing of the maximum glacial extent as well as the onset of the deglaciation from the end of the Last Glacial Cycle (LGC) based on the geomorphological observations and a 12-sample dataset of 10Be Cosmic-Ray Exposure (CRE) ages. There are two moraine systems at the LBBB, where the first is composed of weathered ridges at the outermost part of the basin and the second encompasses well-preserved ridges stretching across the innermost part of the basin. Chronological data shows that the external moraines were abandoned by the ice at the end of the Penultimate Glacial Cycle (PGC) and the onset of the Eemian Interglacial, at ~129 ka. The few existing reliable boulders to date in the internal moraine showed inconsistent ages as they were probably affected by post-glacial processes and therefore, this work adds no evidence of subsequent glacial advances or standstills during the LGC in the LBBB. However, the terminal basin was already deglaciated during the global Last Glacial Maximum (GLGM) at 24-21 ka, as revealed by exposure ages from polished surfaces at the confluence of the Garonne-la Pique valleys, 13 km south of the entrance of the LBBB. This study introduces the first solid CRE database in the Pyrenees for the glacial advance that occurred during the PGC and provides also new evidence from the GLGM when the Garonne palaeoglacier had already significantly shrunk.
Evidence for a "Traffic Jam" Onset of Blocked Flow from Ensemble Sensitivity Analysis
Authors: Polster Christopher , Wirth Volkmar
Published: March 2022

Recently, Nakamura and Huang proposed a simplified model of blocking onset in which blocks form due to an obstruction of the zonal propagation of wave activity on the mid-latitude waveguide analogous to how traffic jams emerge on a highway. The theory is derived from the budget of finite-amplitude local wave activity which can quantify blocking even during the non-linear and high-amplitude stage accurately.

Using the local wave activity framework, we investigate the development of a winter European block and asssess the possible role of the "traffic jam" mechanism in the flow transition. We determine processes contributing to the blocking onset by evaluating the terms of the wave activity budget with data and carry out an ensemble sensitivity analysis to track precursor Rossby wave activity through time. Complementing previous reanalysis-based composite studies which found a large case-to-case variability, the ensemble approach enables us to apply the wave activity framework to individual blocking events, yielding a flow-dependent analysis.

We find evidence for a “traffic jam” blocking onset on 18 December 2016. Block development is sensitive to upstream precursor Rossby wave activity up to 2.5 days prior to the onset date. However, threshold behavior as implied by the idealized theory is not detected. The relationship of finite-amplitude local wave activity and its zonal flux as mapped by the ensemble exhibits the established characteristics of a traffic jam. We therefore suggest that the traffic jam mechanism may play an significant role in some cases of blocking onset and discuss the implications for the predictability of blocking.
Characteristic ion length scales for four types of interplanetary shocks
Authors: Park Byeongseon , Pitna Alexander , Safrankova Jana , Nemecek Zdenek
Published: March 2022

The interaction between interplanetary (IP) shock and solar wind has been studied for the understanding of the energy dissipation mechanism within the collisionless plasma. The power spectra of the magnetic field exhibit breaks, where steepening of these spectra occurs. These breaks have been observed and also regarded as a threshold distinguishing the kinetic range from the inertial range of turbulence. Different heating processes can be related mainly to two characteristic ion length scales — ion inertial length and ion gyroradius. We attempt to establish the relation between these length scales and the spectral break. Data for four different types of IP shocks (fast forwards, fast reverse, slow forwards, slow reverse) measured for 2 hours (one hour for up and downstream plasma) by WIND at 1 AU were used. Continuous wavelet transform for the estimation of the power spectra of measured magnetic field was employed. Spectral breaks were determined by fitting 2-segment piecewise linear function around the expected break position in log-log space. Preliminary analysis of these spectral breaks and the characteristic length scales in fast shocks yields results consistent with the previous studies. Additionally, we extended this analysis towards slow shocks and obtained similar results. While the level of power enhancement of the magnetic field due to fast shocks reaches the order of ten on average, only the order of one was shown for slow shocks. The level of the compression of the characteristic spatial scales, however, is approximately similar for fast and slow shocks.
Dust Grain Detection by the Solar Orbiter Radio and Plasma Wave instrument
Authors: Vaverka Jakub , Pavlu Jiri , Nouzak Libor , Safrankova Jana , Nemecek Zdenek , Pisa David , Soucek Jan , Zaslavsky Arnaud , Maksimovic Milan
Published: March 2022

Hypervelocity dust impacting the spacecraft body can be either partly or totally destroyed and evaporated and then creates a cloud of charged particles. Electrons and ions generated by such impacts can consequently influence the spacecraft potential and/or measurements of on-board scientific instruments. Electric field instruments are sensitive to these disturbances and typically register signals generated by dust impacts as short pulses. Once they are distinguished from other signals, they can be used for the detection of dust grains by spacecraft (even without dedicated dust detectors). 

Solar Orbiter is equipped with the RPW (Radio and Plasma Wave) instrument including three electric field antennas allowing such detection. The time domain sampler (TDS) subsystem of RPW provides typically short electric field waveforms (62.5 ms) sampled at a rate of 262.1 kHz

We have analyzed individual electric field waveforms of dust impacts detected by Solar Orbiter RPW/TDS and sorted into different categories (typical dust impact, impacts with the complex response, misinterpreted events, and suspicious events). Typical dust impacts are compared with an expected signal based on a model of dust impacts. The reliability of dust detection (fraction of misinterpreted and suspicious events) is evaluated with respect to the distance from the Sun.
To what degree can coastal waters be protected by local efforts? 
Authors: Hyytiäinen Kari , Huttunen Inese , Kotamäki Niina , Kuosa Harri , Ropponen Janne
Published: March 2022

Coastal ecosystems are hotspots of marine biodiversity, marine pollution, and multiple human interests. A large share of responsibilities of managing and protecting the coastal ecosystems - often rich in diversity and amenity values - is typically mandated to municipalities, communities and institutions sharing the coastline and catchment area. On the other hand, the quality of water – and hence the state of the coastal ecosystems – is also dependent on the level of water pollution in the neighboring regions.  The objective of this paper is to assess the leverage and effectiveness of local pollution mitigation efforts in improving the water quality of nearby coastal waters. For this end, we employ a systems approach and develop a modelling framework to describe human-nature-human interactions to conduct what-if analyses for alternative societal developments and levels of policy effort in nutrient abatement. Our case study area is Archipelago Sea in the Baltic Sea. We demonstrate that there is room and opportunity for clear improvement towards the Good Environmental State (GES) in most parts of the Archipelago Sea. However, GES is far from reachable in any Archipelago Sea area, coastal region or inner bay through unilateral local action conducted in the catchment draining to the Archipelago Sea only. Local water protection efforts are necessary but not adequate measure to render the Archipelago Sea to a good environmental state. GES can be achieved for most areas within Archipelago Sea through well-coordinated and carefully adjusted load reductions and joint action between regions and countries that share the Baltic Sea catchment, except for inner archipelago, river mouths and the inner bays. In these areas – which also occur to be amongst the hotspot areas for various human interests – GES could be achieved only through extremely expensive local mitigation effort in the catchment area. To reach GES also on inner archipelago would require major transitions, investment in R&D and subsequent technological advancements in the energy sector, wastewater treatment, agriculture, and control of nutrients stored in the sediments of coastal seas.  Moreover, this result calls for consideration on the relevance of current threshold values and targets for GES in different coastal zones.  There is need for either more detailed classification that better accounts for geomorphological qualities of the coastal zone, or a new set of indicators that reflect the provision of ecosystem services rather than biological production. Our simulations also imply that the phenology of phytoplankton biomass occurrence is altered by increased nutrient loads. The shifts in the timing and relative abundance of spring and summer blooms are worth considering when planning the mitigation measures and the optimal timing/targeting of them.
Linking past precipitation changes with changing snow conditions on Ammassalik Island, Southeast Greenland
Authors: van der Schot Jorrit , Schöner Wolfgang , Abermann Jakob , Ferreira Da Silva Tiago Manuel
Published: March 2022

Along with Arctic warming, climate models project a strong increase in Arctic precipitation in the 21st century as well as an increase in the ratio of liquid to total precipitation. Studying past precipitation changes in relation to changes in the formation, extent and melt of seasonal snow can increase our understanding of the snow climatological impacts of the projected future precipitation changes. In this contribution, the link between past precipitation changes and snow conditions on Ammassalik Island, Southeast Greenland will be assessed with a combination of in-situ observations, results from a regional climate model and an integrated snow model. The performance of the snow model will be evaluated with newly established in situ snow height and snow water equivalent data. In the same way, output from the regional climate model is evaluated with automatically monitored precipitation and climate data from weather stations. Thereafter results from model runs of the two aforementioned models will be assessed together to explore the link between precipitation changes and changing snow conditions. A particular interest lies in understanding the shift in the rainfall-snowfall elevation boundary and related snowmelt, as our hypothesis is that more liquid precipitation on higher elevations will lead to increased snowmelt in this mountainous area.
Return periods in current and future climate
Authors: Rosbjerg Dan
Published: March 2022

The distribution functions for large rain events Xc in current climate is denoted F(x) = P{Xc ≤ x} and for large rain events Xf in a future climate G(x) = P{Xf ≤ x}. A climate factor k is introduced, and it is assumed that P{Xc ≤ x} = P{Xf ≤ k x} corresponding to G(k x) = F(x). If we further assume that the distribution functions F and G have exponential tails, the following simple transformation of the return period in current climate Tc to the corresponding return period in future climate Tf can be deduced

Tf = Tc1/k

Applying a first order analysis on this equation with k as independent variable leads to a relation between the uncertainties of k and Tf. In terms of the coefficient of variations we get

CV{Tf} ≈ 1/ lnTc CV{k}

This equation reveals that even with moderate uncertainty in k, the uncertainty in Tf is notably increased.
Immobilisation of metal(loid)s in building materials made with mine waste
Authors: Cappuyns Valérie , Adrianto Lugas Raka , Helser Jillian
Published: March 2022

In the framework of the H2020 ETN SULTAN (European Training Network for the Remediation and Reprocessing of Sulfidic Mining Waste Sites) project, the release of metal(loid)s from different building materials, in which mining waste (including mine tailings and waste rock) was used as a raw material, was investigated. The waste rock and mine tailings originated from an active Cu-Zn mine and were characterized by a high content of Cu, Zn, Pb, and As. Part of the waste rock was cleaned by flotation before use, while the mine tailings were used without pre-cleaning. 

Bricks, clinkers, cements, and inorganic polymers in which from 14 wt% up to 100 wt% of primary raw materials had been replaced by mine tailings or (cleaned) waste rock, were subjected to various leaching tests: (i) a single batch leaching test (EN 12457-2), (ii) the Toxicity Characteristic Leaching Procedure (TCLP), and (iii) a cascade leaching test (NEN 7349). The influence of the processing of the mine waste, the pH of the leachates, and the mineralogical composition of the building materials on the immobilisation of metal(loid)s were assessed.

Clinkers and cements were the most efficient building materials to immobilise all metal(loid)s, even when uncleaned waste materials were used as a raw material. For the inorganic polymer produced from uncleaned mine waste rock, the leaching of Zn, Pb, Cu, and As was a point of concern, promoted by the alkaline pH of this material. The bricks had a lower release of metal(loid)s  compared to the inorganic polymers, which also showed the importance of an efficient cleaning procedure before using the mine waste as a raw material.

 
c-u-curve: A method to analyze, classify and compare dynamical systems by uncertainty and complexity
Authors: Ehret Uwe , Dey Pankaj
Published: March 2022

We propose a method to analyse, classify and compare dynamical systems of arbitrary dimension by the two key features uncertainty and complexity. It starts by subdividing the system’s time-trajectory into a number of time slices. For all values in a time slice, the Shannon information entropy is calculated, measuring within-slice variability. System uncertainty is then expressed by the mean entropy of all time slices. We define system complexity as “uncertainty about uncertainty”, and express it by the entropy of the entropies of all time slices. Calculating and plotting uncertainty u and complexity c for many different numbers of time slices yields the c-u-curve. Systems can be analysed, compared and classified by the c-u-curve in terms of i) its overall shape, ii) mean and maximum uncertainty, iii) mean and maximum complexity, and iv) its characteristic time scale expressed by the width of the time slice for which maximum complexity occurs. We demonstrate the method at the example of both synthetic and real-world time series (constant, random noise, Lorenz attractor, precipitation and streamflow) and show that conclusions drawn from the c-u-curve are in accordance with expectations. The method is based on unit-free probabilities and therefore permits application to and comparison of arbitrary data. It naturally expands from single- to multivariate systems, and from deterministic to probabilistic value representations, allowing e.g. application to ensemble model predictions. 
Foreshock compressive structures and their relations to jet-like events in the magnetosheath
Authors: Xirogiannopoulou Niki , Goncharov Oleksandr , Safrankova Jana , Nemecek Zdenek , Salohub Anna
Published: March 2022

Plasma structures with enhanced density or dynamic pressure, also known as jets or plasmoids, are often observed in Earth’s magnetosheath. Early studies of jets in the magnetosheath have indicated that the jet formation is closely related to processes in the foreshock region. Based on the magnetic field changes, Karlsson et al. (2015) divided the plasmoids into two distinct groups. They observed numbers of “diamagnetic” plasmoids in the foreshock region and suggested that Short Large Amplitude Magnetic Structures (SLAMS) could be a source of both plasmoid types in the magnetosheath. Using measurements by the Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) spacecraft we present a statistical analysis of foreshock compressive structures with significantly enhanced density and dynamic pressure. Based on our statistical analysis and previous studies, we discuss features of those structures, their properties, occurrence, evolution, and relation to the magnetosheath jets and plasmoids.
Towards long-term (2002-present) reconstruction of northern Indian Ocean Sea Surface Salinity based on AMSR-E and L-band Radiometer data
Authors: Montero Marie , Reul Nicolas , de Boyer Montégut Clément , Vialard Jérôme , Tournadre Jean
Published: March 2022

The Bay of Bengal is under the influence of the monsoon and has a highly contrasted and variable Sea Surface Salinity (SSS). In situ salinity data is however too sparse to reconstruct interannual SSS variability of the Bay of Bengal prior to synoptic SSS mapping of SMOS launched in 2009.

Previous studies have demonstrated the ability of X minus C-band measurements, such as those of AMSR-E (May 2002-Oct 2011), to track SSS changes in high-contrast regions and at high Sea Surface Temperature (SST). Here, we apply this approach to reconstruct the Bay of Bengal SSS before 2010. We remove the effects of other geophysical variables such as SST, surface wind, and atmospheric water content using an empirical approach. SSS is then retrieved based on another empirical fit, trained on the ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) SSS dataset, over the AMSR-E and CCI common period (Jan 2010 to Oct 2011). Our first results are encouraging: spatial contrast between the low post-monsoon SSS values close to estuaries and along the west coast of India are reproduced. Our algorithm, however, tends to overestimate low SSS and underestimate high SSS values, possibly due to data contamination near the coast and/or a suboptimal removal of the signals from other geophysical variables. Nevertheless, the first results show a correct representation of the recognizable Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena. Furthermore, we are currently creating and studying the use of a neuronal network with the intention to include more parameters in the algorithm.

The long-term goal of this work is to merge the C-, X-, and L-band data with in-situ measurements thus providing a long-term reconstruction of monthly SSS in the Bay of Bengal with a ~50 km resolution This dataset will be used to explore the physical processes that drive interannual SSS variability in regions where it is strong, such as near major river estuaries or along the west coast of India.
One-year analysis of dust detection using dipole electric field antennas at Mars by MAVEN
Authors: Ijaz Samia , Vaverka Jakub , Safrankova Jana , Nemecek Zdenek
Published: March 2022

Detection of dust grains in space is limited by a small number of dedicated dust detectors, however, we aim to study dust detection using electric field instruments usually placed on the majority of scientific spacecraft. This technique has been previously applied to detect dust impacts in space for several decades. The major advantage of this method is that entire spacecraft surface acts as a detector. We present a preliminary statistical analysis of 1-year (2015) observations of dust impacts by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) spacecraft. The pulses generated by dust impacts were identified in data of the Langmuir Probe and Wave instrument operating in a dipole configuration (probe to probe potential measurement). Out of all the modes we use the medium frequency burst mode, the data covers 62.5 milliseconds using 4096 measured points which gives us a sampling frequency of 66.67 kHz. First, our algorithm selected events for which the derivative exceeded a threshold value. Second, these preselected events were further categorized into groups. Several groups contained suspicious events which are most likely not related to dust impacts. In total, we find 9848 events at altitudes ranging from less than 200 to 6000 kilometers that we can interpret as dust impacts. The distribution of these dust events around the Mars orbit is discussed.
Particulate phase transport of pesticides is substantial for runoff and erosion in a small agricultural catchment
Authors: Commelin Meindert , Baartman Jantiene , Zomer Paul , Riksen Michel , Geissen Violette
Published: March 2022

Agriculture on sloping lands is prone to processes of overland runoff and associated soil detachment, transportation, and deposition. The transport of pesticides to off-target areas related to runoff processes and soil erosion poses a threat of pollution to the downstream environment. This study aimed to quantify transport of pesticides both dissolved in water and in the particulate phase in transported sediments. Particulate phase transport of pesticides on short temporal time scales form agricultural fields is scarcely studied, and this study provides more insight into this process. During two growing seasons (2019 and 2020) rainfall – runoff events were monitored. We selected 32 different pesticides based on interviews with the farmers on the application pattern.  Concentrations for these 32 residues were analyzed in runoff water (dissolved phase - DP) and sediment (particulate phase - PP) and in soil samples taken in the agricultural fields. In all runoff events active substances (AS) were detected. There was a clear difference between DP and PP with a mean of 2 and 13 different AS per event respectively. The mean (± uncertainty) concentrations detected were 46 ±7 µg l-1 in DP and 2900 ± 500 µg kg-1 in PP. Although the transported mass of sediment is much lower than the total water discharge (QTSS : Qw = 1 :73) the contribution of PP to total pesticide load discharged was 47%. We conclude that for agriculture on sloping lands overland transport of pesticide in the particulate phase is a substantial transport pathway, and that this process needs to be considered in future assessments for pesticide fate and environmental risk.
Properties of near-surface aerosol in Moscow during the season of minimal air pollution (two differing winters of 2019-20 and 2020-21)
Authors: Gubanova Dina , Vinogradova Anna , Skorokhod Andrey , Iordanskii Mikhail
Published: March 2022

The results of an intensive complex experiment to study the composition and temporal variability of urban aerosol in near-surface air in the center of Moscow include daily data for two years on concentrations of PM10 and PM2.5 particles. In addition, in each season (for 35-40 days), measurements of the total aerosol mass concentration (by gravimetric method) and 65 chemical elements included in its composition are also carried out daily. For winter seasons, it is from January 10 to February 14, 2020 and 2021. Winter is the season with minimal aerosol pollution in Moscow. The total aerosol mass was 20.8 μg/m3 and 32.0 μg/m3 in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, respectively. Concentrations of all measured components in near-surface air did not exceed the MPC values for residential areas during both winters. However, the ratios of mass concentrations for particles PM2.5, PM10 and larger particles were different in these years. Mass ratios (in %) of aerosols of different sizes (<2.5 μm):(from 2.5 to 10 μm):(>10 μm) were 23:27:50 and 33:8:59 for 2020 and 2021, respectively. According to weather conditions, these two winters in Moscow were very different: the winter of 2019-2020 was abnormally warm with the shortest duration of snow cover for all the years of observations. On the contrary, the next winter of 2020-2021 was close to normal in terms of the main meteorological parameters, although the wind rose was characterized by an increased frequency of winds from the south. Studies have shown the leading role of meteorological conditions (in particular, humidity and air pressure), as well as long-range atmospheric transport in changing the level of aerosol pollution of near-surface air in Moscow. Analysis of the variability of the chemical element concentrations and enrichment factors (relative to the composition of the Earth's crust) identifies elements of predominantly anthropogenic (for example, Cd, Sb, Pb) or terrigenous (Co, Fe, Al, Cr), as well as global (S, P, B, Se, Bi) or local (Ca, Ni, W) origin. The results of winter observations of urban aerosol in Moscow are compared with the spring data of 2020 [1] and 2021.

The work was financially supported of RFBR, grant No. 19-05-50088.

[1] Gubanova, D.P., Vinogradova, A.A., Iordanskii, M.A., Skorokhod A.I. Time Variations in the Composition of Atmospheric Aerosol in Moscow in Spring 2020. , Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics. 2021. V. 57, No. 3. P. 297–309. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0001433821030051
Magnetospheric compressions, magnetopause shadowing and the last-closed-drift-shell
Authors: Desai Ravindra , Eastwood Jonathan , Eggington Joseph , Chittenden Jeremy , Horne Richard
Published: March 2022

Fluxes in the outer radiation belt can vary by orders of magnitude in response to solar wind driving conditions. Magnetopause shadowing, where electron and proton drift paths intersect the magnetopause boundary, is a fundamental loss process which operates on sub-day timescales and can result in rapid loss across the outer radiation belt. Accurate characterisation of this is therefore required to fully account for outer radiation belt dynamics and to avoid unrealistic fluxes impacting long-term forecasts. In this paper we utilise particle simulations of the radiation belts integrated within evolving global MHD simulations, to provide high-resolution high-fidelity simulations of the phenomenon of magnetopause shadowing. We model a variety of magnetopause compression scenarios corresponding to extreme cases of interplanetary shock impacts, and gradual increases in solar wind dynamic pressure. We thus constrain how time-dependent topological variation of the magnetospheric fields results in a complex interplay of open and closed particle drift paths, and examine the role of the electric field in modulating escaping particles trajectories as well as corresponding prompt injections into the inner magnetosphere.
Climate change impact on vernacular and archaeological cultural heritage building materials in Europe and Latin America
Authors: Esteban Cantillo Oscar Julián , Menendez Beatriz , Quesada Benjamin
Published: March 2022

The analysis and interpretation of past climate data and simulations of climate models for future periods will allow us to know future climate conditions and their differences with past ones. One of the many applications of these analyzes is the study of the impacts of climate change on two types of cultural heritage that differ due to their geographical location and therefore their climatic conditions, as are vernacular cultural heritage in Europe and archaeological sites in Latin America, but they share a fundamental similarity in terms of the use of materials and construction techniques.

The first objective of our study is to review and quantify the impacts of combined climate (mean and extreme) and pollution on building materials of cultural heritage under future IPCC socioeconomic scenarios with high and low mitigation measures at years 2030, 2050 and 2070, using peer-reviewed dose-response equations.

We also focus on the degradation effects due to compound extreme events (heatwave, dry spells and extreme rainfall/flood) of each of the selected regions of our case study (European project SCORE: Sustainable COnservation and REstoration of built cultural heritage 2021-2024), in order to determine how future climatic conditions may affect the cultural heritage of some sites in Europe and Latin America. The foregoing by applying these climatic conditions in different models, based on scientific literature, that allow determining the consequences of these conditions on the materials in which these structures were built.

Finally, based on the literature review, we deliver preliminary results on a “cocktail of extreme events” experiment in laboratory specifically designed to quantify the damages and degradation of building materials due to a realistic series of adverse climate and pollution events.