bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Assessing the effects of heat and droughts on forest-climate interactions in Europe using a regional climate model with an interactively coupled vegetation module 
Authors: Asmus Christina , Buntemeyer Lars , Knutzen Florian , Pietikäinen Joni-Pekka , Rechid Diana
Published: March 2024

Forests play a pivotal role in the climate system by exchanging energy, water, and gases with the atmosphere.  Through biogeochemical processes such as photosynthesis, respiration, and transpiration, forests heavily influence the carbon and water cycles. In particular, their capacity to sequester carbon through photosynthesis demonstrates their role as carbon sinks. Further, through biogeophysical processes forests influence the local and regional climate by determining local temperature and humidity distributions. 

However, forests not only influence the climate - they are also affected by it. Their vulnerability to climate extremes, particularly to heat and droughts, raises substantial challenges. Droughts induce water stress, affecting both biogeochemical and biogeophysical processes, at the soil-forest-atmosphere interface. Within the EU Horizon project OptFor-EU and in collaboration with the Euro-CORDEX Flagship Pilot Study LUCAS, we employ numerical models to assess the climate-forest interactions and to evaluate forest resilience in a changing climate. 

In this study, we examine the effects of heat and droughts on European forests and their climatic feedbacks in simulations using the regional climate model REMO2020 coupled with its interactive, mosaic-based vegetation module iMOVE. The coupling enables the exchange of crucial parameters on model timestep level, and therefore, captures the complex interactions between climate, soil, and vegetation. We focus on biophysiological forest parameters such as the leaf area index (LAI), as well as on biophysical processes such as evapotranspiration, and on their feedbacks with the regional climate. Our simulations cover the European continent and have a horizontal resolution of 0.11°, forced with reanalysis data from ERA5.1 at the lateral boundaries. Starting from 1981 until 2020, they cover the hot and dry years of the last decades, such as 2003 and 2018-2020.  Our findings reveal insights into the vulnerability and resilience of European forests to heat and drought events, as well as into their role in climate extremes mitigation.   

Acknowledgments

This research received funds from the project “OPTimising FORest management decisions for a low-carbon, climate resilient future in Europe (OptFor-EU)” funded by the European Union Horizon Europe programme, under Grant agreement n°101060554. 
Suspected and non-targeted analysis of environmental contaminants in water and sediments of L’Albufera Natural Park by liquid chromatography-high resolution mass spectrometry
Authors: Picó Yolanda , Soriano Yolanda , Andreu Vicente
Published: March 2024

The increasing worldwide release of anthropogenic chemicals compounds into the aquatic ecosystems has led serious contamination of freshwater resources.  This study investigated the chemical composition of the water and sediments of L'Albufera Natural Park, Valencia, Spain, an area heavily impacted by intensive agriculture, surrounded by an industrial belt, highly urbanized and historically polluted. The goal was to assess the different water sources and anthropogenic influence in this managed area using nontarget analysis (NTA) combined with high-resolution mass spectrometry (HRMS). Surface water and sediment samples were collected from 51 sites during two sampling events in the May/June 2019 and September/October 2019. These two periods were selected because the most relevant crop in the area are rice fields and these two periods coincides with the starting of the cultivation and the harvest. The HRMS data was processed using Compound Discoverer™ version 3.3, and the results were analyzed using Principal Component Analysis (PCA). Agricultural practices are one of the most important sources of contaminants (mostly pesticides) including at concentrations >100 ng L-1 acetamiprid, azoxystrobin, chlorfenvinfos, chlorpyrifos, difenoconazole, dimethoate, fluvalinate, imazalil, imidacloprid, omethoate, propazine, tebuconazole, terbumeton deethyl, terbuthylazine, thiabendazole and tricyclazole. Increased presence and intensity of organic contaminants along the waterway was observed, indicating significant anthropogenic influence in the area. The NTA and post-processing were evaluated for reproducibility, demonstrating robustness with a 71.2% average reproducibility for compounds detected the 2 sampling trips. A detection frequency of 80% was the set criterion for detected compounds suggested as tracers. To prioritize samples, hierarchical cluster analysis was employed, and potential tracers for each water source were determined. Additionally, urban-influenced contaminants such as insect repellents, pharmaceuticals, and non-agricultural herbicides were identified along the channels that transports treated wastewater to the Natural Park. This study highlights the impact of human activities on L’Albufera Natural Park and demonstrates the effectiveness of NTA in differentiating and tracking water sources. The results emphasize the importance of reproducibility in NTA and provide guidance on implementing monitoring strategies by prioritizing samples based on chemical compositions.
Characterization of aircraft icing conditions in Western Europe and the North-East Atlantic. Case studies using aircraft reports, satellite, and synoptic data
Authors: Belo-Pereira Margarida , Casqueiro Beatriz , Trigo Isabel
Published: March 2024

A sample of 115 aircraft icing events in the Western Europe and Northeastern Atlantic sector, identified in aircraft pilot reports (PIREPs), is analyzed using satellite observations and products. Most of the icing events occurred between October and February, although a few cases were identified during late spring and even summer months. Icing conditions were generally reported at mid-troposphere, with 82.7% and 78.6% of moderate and severe icing, respectively, identified between FL100 and FL250 (≈ 3 - 7.6km). Satellite observations allow the identification of icing-prone conditions and also provide an independent means of validating some of the data in the aircraft reports. It is shown that aircraft icing occurs mainly within opaque clouds, with ice cloud-tops, or mixed-phase (ice and water). Accordingly, most events were associated with middle and high opaque clouds, with 10.8 μm brightness temperatures (BT10.8) between -40 and -8°C.Moreover, a detailed analysis of three events, using model data, satellite, and synoptic observations, illustrates the occurrence of aircraft icing in precipitating clouds. Within those cases, one occurred below the upper layer of a thick nimbostratus associated with an occluded low centered in the Bay of Biscay. The second event, reported as severe, as in the former case, took place within low clouds over southern England in association with northwesterly winds driven by a complex low. Finally, a moderate event happened over southern Portugal, in association with a cold front, near the cloud top of nimbostratus. In all cases, the icing index operational at the Portuguese Weather Service, based on the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model, was able to predict prone-icing conditions, with higher severity in the severe cases.
The Response of Synoptic-Scale Weather to Jet Stream Characteristics: a Lagrangian perspective.
Authors: Hadas Or , Kaspi Yohai
Published: March 2024

The position and intensity of storm tracks undergo significant changes in response to temporal and spatial variations in atmospheric forcing. Comprehending these changes from the viewpoint of individual cyclones and anticyclones is crucial both from a physical perspective, as they are the main drivers of energy and moisture, and because they are a leading cause of severe weather in the midlatitudes. This study delves into the impact of the jet characteristics on individual cyclones and anticyclones, focusing on their maximum strength and growth time. By utilizing tracks of cyclones and anticyclones spanning over 80 years of ERA5 reanalysis data, we identify unique temporal and spatial variations in maximum strength and growth time. These variations are then clarified through a detailed examination of how these properties respond to the characteristics of the jet.  The study reveals that the vertical shear of the jet increases the maximum strength at low and medium regimes and decreases it for intense shear values, potentially playing a significant role in phenomena characterized by extreme shear, such as the midwinter minimum. Breaking down the storm maximum strength into the responses due to growth time and Lagrangian growth rate (effective average growth rate of the individual storms) indicates that while the Lagrangian growth rate is linear with vertical shear, as expected by linear theory, the saturation of maximum strength results from a decrease in growth time with vertical shear. The horizontal shear of the jet, which is less widely studied, was found to reduce the growth time of cyclones and anticyclones significantly. Additionally, horizontal shear has a smaller effect on the Lagrangian growth rate, with cyclones on the poleward side of the jet growing faster and anticyclones on the equatorward side growing faster. These findings provide insights into predicting how changes in jet characteristics in past and future climates influence midlatitude weather through the effect on cyclone and anticyclone activity.
Renewal of the Dutch National Hydrological Model
Authors: Bootsma Huite , van der Ploeg Martine , Weerts Albrecht
Published: March 2024

The Dutch National Hydrological Model currently consists of five physically different models linked together. The software components are slated for renewal which provides a rare opportunity to improve process description, flexibility, robustness, and computational efficiency of the hydrological concepts used for national simulations of the Netherlands. Through application of the current model for integrated modelling in the Netherlands we have identified three main challenges:Representative parametrization of the regional groundwater-surface water interaction
Simulating highly managed large- and small-scale water bodies in integrated hydrological simulations
Simulating the unsaturated zone in integrated hydrological simulations of lowland regions
We will present (and would like to discuss) a 4-year PhD research plan to tackle these challenges.The Netherlands is characterized by a dense network of surface waters for drainage requiring very fine meter-scale spatial discretization, which is unfeasible for national modelling. An analytic solution will be investigated and tested across the Netherlands to find effective parameters of the groundwater-surface water interaction and to understand its scaling behavior, providing better initial estimates and more insight to judge calibration results.Secondly, a new code implementation to efficiently simulate highly managed surface water bodies in for regional and national applications, that is explicitly designed to be coupled to a saturated zone model, has been developed (Ribasim.jl, https://deltares.github.io/Ribasim/) and will be tested against measurements. We will focus on drought events, the groundwater-surface water interaction, and the trade-offs between (managed) surface water versus groundwater extraction.Finally, we will compare different unsaturated zone concepts for a representative set of Dutch soil profiles, most with shallow water tables, and investigate the potential of scientific machine learning to provide computationally efficient, explainable simulation schemes. Drought events are also the primary interest here, with the aim to eventually estimate and understand crop and vegetation impacts.The PhD project is being carried out under the Dutch Science Foundation (NWO) KIC-call ‘Climate-robust production systems and water management’ which focuses on research into solutions for robust agricultural systems, designing climate-robust and valuable nature-based sand landscapes of the future, increasing freshwater availability in coastal areas and modelling, monitoring, and predicting drought.
Aerosols complex refractive indices determination from far infrared to UV: application to dust and residual ashes of biomass burning
Authors: Chehab Maria , Herbin Hervé , Gosselin Sylvie , Bizet Valentine , Petitprez Denis
Published: March 2024

Due to their ability to absorb and scatter solar radiation, major injections of aerosols can have a significant effect on the atmosphere including impacts on the radiation balance of the Earth and changes in temperature. Given the variability and spatial heterogeneity of their concentration, size and chemical composition, it is important to quantify these aerosols, from remote sensing techniques, in order to better identify their sources and understand their environmental impact from regional to global scale. Satellite instruments, such as the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) and the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder AIRS for the thermal IR region and FORUM for the far infrared, can give us information about chemical composition (Alalam et al. 2022) and microphysical parameters of the aerosols such as the effective radius, concentration and mass (Deguine et al. 2023). Nonetheless, these techniques require accurate information about the optical properties, specifically the complex refractive index (CRI)   .CRI databases available in the literature however, span over limited wavelength ranges and provide mainly reflectance measurements on bulk materials or pressed pellets. In particular, the latter can have several limitations such as the modification of the microphysical properties of the particles (size distribution and morphology). Furthermore, in pellet samples, the particles are present in a compressed matrix causing modifications of the vibrational modes. For bulk measurements, there is strong underestimation of the scattering signal.  Therefore, the optical constants coming from such techniques are not fitted for aerosols and atmospheric applications (McPheat et al. 2002).We present an improved retrieval methodology combining an experimental setup that allows simultaneously the measurement of high spectral-resolution extinction spectra (up to 0.5 cm-1) from far infrared (FIR) (50 µm /200 cm-1) up to UV (0.25 µm /40,000 cm-1) and the recording of the size distribution of both fine and coarse particles (Hubert et al. 2017). Introducing these experimental measurements in a numerical iterative process, the real and imaginary parts of the CRI are retrieved using an optimal estimation method (OEM) associated to scattering theories and the single subtractive Kramers-Kronig (SSKK) relation (Herbin et al. 2017).Kaolinite, one of the main clays found in dust, has been used as a first application of this methodology. For the first time, homogenous values of CRI have been retrieved continuously from FIR to UV for suspended particles. This methodology is also being used to retrieved CRI of biomass burning aerosols (BBA). Preliminary result obtained from residual ashes will be present, showing IR extinction spectra as well as chemical analysis.
Radiative effect of thin cirrus clouds in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere and tropopause region
Authors: Spang Reinhold , Müller Rolf , Rap Alexandru
Published: March 2024

Cirrus clouds play an important role in the radiation budget of the Earth; nonetheless, the radiative effect of ultra thin cirrus clouds in the tropopause region and in the lowermost stratosphere remains poorly constrained. These clouds have a small vertical extent and optical depth, and are frequently neither observed even by sensitive sensors nor considered in climate model simulations. In addition, their shortwave (cooling) and longwave (warming) radiative effects are often in approximate balance, and their net effect strongly depends on the shape and size of the cirrus particles. However, the CRyogenic Infrared Spectrometers and Telescopes for the Atmosphere instrument (CRISTA-2) allows ultra thin cirrus clouds to be detected. Here we use CRISTA-2 observations in summer 1997 in the northern hemisphere midlatitudes together with the Suite Of Community RAdiative Transfer codes based on Edwards and Slingo (SOCRATES) radiative transfer model to calculate the radiative effect of observed ultra thin cirrus. Using sensitivity simulations with different ice effective particle size and shape, we provide an estimate for the uncertainty of the radiative effect of ultra thin cirrus in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere and tropopause region during summer and - by extrapolation of the summer results - for winter. Cloud top height and ice water content are based on CRISTA-2 measurements, while the cloud vertical thickness was predefined to be 0.5 or 2 km. Our results indicate that if the ice crystals of these thin cirrus clouds are assumed to be spherical, their net cloud radiative effect is generally positive (warming). In contrast, assuming aggregates or a hexagonal shape, their net radiative effect is generally negative (cooling) during summer months and very likely positive (warming) during winter. The radiative effect is in the order of +/-(0.1-0.01) W/m2 for a realistic global cloud coverage of 10%, similar to the magnitude of the contrail cirrus radiative forcing (of ~0.1 W/m2). The radiative effect is also dependent on the cloud vertical extent and consequently the optically thickness and effective radius of the particle size distribution (e.g. effective radius increase from 5 to 30~microns results in a factor ~6 smaller long and shortwave effect respectively). The properties of ultrathin cirrus clouds in the lowermost stratosphere and tropopause region need to be better observed and ultra thin cirrus clouds need to be evaluated in climate model simulations.--
Evaluation of Aquifer Recharge Infiltration through Richards equation–based Approach in Non-carbon Confined Aquifers in Central Bohemian, Czech Republic from 1990 to 202
Authors: Cárdenas-Castillero Gustavo , Kuráž Michal
Published: March 2024

The influence of climate change on the level and recharge of groundwater has yet to be well understood. In countries with low cumulative rainfall, such as the Czech Republic, groundwater is an essential source of water supply. In the Czech Republic, between 1990 and 2020, 366 million m$^{3}$ of water from aquifers was used for public water supply networks. Although the air temperature in the Czech Republic continues to rise slowly, from 1981 to 2010, an increase of +1.6°C has been identified in all Czech territories, affecting evaporation and infiltration dynamics. On average, 634 mm of precipitation fell in the country (92% of the long-term average for 1981-2010). These conditions aggravate droughts caused by several consecutive years of below-average rainfall, directly affecting water infiltration, groundwater recharge, and groundwater table fluctuations.This contribution aims to simulate rainwater infiltration according to evapotranspiration heat, simulating the excess water that can infiltrate and cross the unsaturated zone until it reaches the saturated zone. This research is carried out in non-carbon confined aquifers, where infiltration is assumed to be the primary recharge mechanism in the western Central Bohemian region, Czech Republic. The climate data consists of 2-meter total precipitation and temperature data from the ERA5 reanalysis (provided by ECMWF). On an hourly scale, the analysis is run using disaggregated data from the Amalie Lany region (Central Bohemia). Data disaggregation was achieved through ArcMap and Rstudio.Water infiltration was achieved using DRUtES (Dual Richards Unsaturated Equation Solver). DRUtES is a free software. It uses Richards's and heat transport equations to describe hydrodynamical processes in variable saturated porous media with surface and subsurface evaporation, surface energy balance and root water uptake.  This model was built to represent over ten observation boreholes in a compacted sedimentary layer followed by fractured layers in the Lany Amalie Watershed. Van Genuchten's median porous parameters, anisotropy description, thermal conductivity, and root zone parameters have been used in this model. Over the past period (1990 - 2020), the infiltration shows a mean of 0.05 mm per hour for each soil profile. Infiltration simulation correlates quantitatively with climate time series data from 1990 to 2020. This first approach evaluates climate change's impact in the last 30 years on aquifer recharge from surface heat in the western Central Bohemian region, where precipitation is an essential resource to supply ponds, energy production, aquifer recharge, and drinking water. Keywords: Climate change, Infiltration, Aquifer recharge, Precipitation, Temperature, DRUtES.
Impact of the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO; ~53-49 Ma) on planktic foraminiferal assemblage (Pacific Ocean, sites 1209-1210). 
Authors: Filippi Giulia , Barrett Ruby , Schmidt Daniela N. , D'Onofrio Roberta , Westerhold Thomas , Brombin Valentina , Luciani Valeria
Published: March 2024

Past warm events offer windows into the biotic response to extreme warmth. The early Eocene interval records the highest global average temperature and CO2 levels of the Cenozoic. Several transient global warming events occur within the Early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO, 53-49 Ma), offering an opportunity to investigate the impact of both long term and transient warm climatic conditions on planktic foraminifera. We analyse the planktic foraminiferal record across the EECO obtained from tropical Pacific ODP sites 1209-1210 (Shatsky Rise). These sites have an excellent age model and stable isotope ratios enabling linkage of the biotic data with the climate and carbon cycle spanning the EECO.We combine indicators of carbonate production and preservation [fragmentation index (FI) as a dissolution proxy, weight percent coarse fraction (CF) as foraminiferal production and preservation index, and Foraminiferal Mass Accumulation Rate (FMAR) as foraminiferal production proxy] with changes in planktic foraminiferal assemblages and test-size.At the EECO onset, the abundance of the genus Morozovella (53.28 Ma) and Chiloguembelina (52.85 Ma) decreased at Shatsky Rise sites, confirming previous Atlantic Ocean data and thus pointing towards global decline of these genera. We hypothesise that a reduction in foraminiferal mass accumulation and assemblage test-size would follow the drop in Morozovellids abundance, given their dominance and large size in early Eocene tropical assemblages. In contrast, we record a slight increase in test-size within assemblages and a relatively stable FMAR. These changes may be controlled by growing dominance of the genus Acarinina indicating an ability of this species to benefit from the environmental conditions. In addition, we observe a relatively stable FMAR at decreasing CF which may be linked to either increased carbonate dissolution or enhanced calcareous nannofossil productivity (or a combination of both) reducing foraminiferal relative contribution to the sediment.Even though the pronounced warming during the EECO strongly altered the planktic foraminiferal assemblage composition resulting in the decrease in abundance of some genera, species replacement within communities highlights the resilience of pelagic carbonate production.
Biological soil crusts as hotspots of managed soils in mesic environments
Authors: Gall Corinna , Kurth Julia Katharina , Glaser Karin , Karsten Ulf , Ohan Juliette , Schloter Michael , Scholten Thomas , Schulz Stefanie , Seitz Steffen
Published: March 2024

Biological soil crusts, or “biocrusts”, are biogeochemical hotspots that significantly influence ecosystem processes in arid environments. Biocrusts play an important ecological role in the pedosphere and can improve nutrient availability and fertility, influence plant germination, increase biogeochemical cycling, keep and enhance water availability at the soil surface, increase soil aggregate stability, and protect the soil surface by counteracting soil erosion from water and wind. Although they cover large areas, particularly in managed sites with frequent anthropogenic disturbance, their importance in mesic environments is not in the focus of research so far. As in arid regions, biocrusts can significantly affect soil nutrients, soil degradation as well as the water balance here; however, their persistence may differ. The essential requirements for biocrust development include bare soil and a minimum amount of light. These conditions act as a starting point for biocrust establishment and succession in mesic environments and can either occur in special habitats such as sand dunes or mining heaps or be created by disturbing or removing layers of vegetation and litter. Recent studies have found mesic biocrusts mostly at managed, anthropogenically impacted sites such as monospecific forest plantations, broadleaf-mixed forests under heavy machining, and agricultural fields.Based on their ecological functions, biocrusts bear the potential to act as novel tools for sustainable soil management. They have already been explored as possible means to restore degraded soils such as in the rehabilitation of salt heaps and burned forests. As a consequence of global climate change with a larger frequency of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfalls or extended droughts, soils will become more vulnerable and require new forms of management. Accordingly, biocrusts could make a significant contribution considering their partly high abundance in managed mesic environments. As the study of biocrusts in mesic environments is still in its infancy, further elaboration on their dynamics, distribution, and potential impacts on ecosystem services is needed. Therefore, we call for interdisciplinary physical, biological, microbiological, chemical, and applied soil science research with a special focus on biocrusts of managed soils from mesic environments, to better understand their impact on overall ecosystem health and resilience, particularly due to climate change.
Volume, effusion rates and lava hazards of the 2021, 2022 and 2023 Reykjanes fires: Lessons learned from near real-time photogrammetric monitoring
Authors: Pedersen Gro B. M. , Belart Joaquin M. C. , Óskarsson Birgir V. , Gunnarson Sydney R. , Gudmundsson Magnús T. , Reynolds Hannah I. , Valsson Guðmundur , Högnadóttir Thórdís , Pinel Virginie , Parks Michelle M. , Drouin Vincent , Askew Robert A. , Dürig Tobias , Þrastarson Ragnar H.
Published: March 2024

At the time of writing (January 9, 2024) four basaltic effusive eruptions have taken place on the Reykjanes Peninsula, SW Iceland since 2021. This includes three eruptions within the Fagradalsfjall volcanic system (March 19–September 18, 2021; August 3–21, 2022 and July 10–August 5, 2023) and one eruption within the Svartsengi volcanic system (December 18–21, 2023). Near real-time photogrammetric monitoring was performed during all four eruptions and the results yielded eruption parameters such as lava volumes, thicknesses, and effusion rates, which are key for hazard assessments. The 6-month long 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption produced a bulk lava volume of 150 ± 3 × 106 m3 and the mean output rate (MOR) of 9.5 ± 0.2 m3/s with a fairly constant time-averaged discharge rate ranging between 1–8 m3/s in March–April and increasing to 9–13 m3/s in May–September. The 18 day long eruption in 2022 had a bulk volume of 11 ± 0.4 × 106 m3 with a MOR of ~7 m3/s, starting with a fairly high initial effusion (exceeding 30 m3/s a few hours from the eruption start) followed by an exponential declining phase of waning effusion. The 2023 eruption in the Fagradalsfjall volcanic system lasted 26 days and the effusion rate followed an exponential declining trend like the 2022 eruption with similar MOR of ~7 m3/s and a bulk volume of ~15 × 106 m3. The initial effusion rates observed in these three eruptions were comparable to the calculated inflow rates into the dikes prior to eruption onset, suggesting that the magnitude of effusion can be estimated prior to eruption onset. Furthermore, first order assessments of eruption durations were feasible from the exponentially declining effusion rate curves in 2022 and 2023.The eruption in the Svartsengi volcanic system yielded a bulk volume of ~11 × 106 m3 with a MOR of ~50 m3/s. The initial effusion rate was likely to have exceeded 300 m3/s and declined rapidly ending after 2.5 days.Here we discuss the different trends in the effusion rate curves for these four eruptions, what insight they provide regarding plumbing system dynamics, and their implications concerning associated lava hazards.
A flood prediction framework: integrating seamless predictions into urban hydrological modeling 
Authors: Reinoso-Rondinel Ricardo , Buekenhout Daan , van Ginderachter Michiel , Imhoff Ruben , De Cruz Lesley , Willems Patrick
Published: March 2024

In recent times, the escalating occurrences of intense precipitation and flooding have exposed substantial socio-economic repercussions, with projections indicating a further rise in their impact due to climate change. Addressing this issue necessitates timely warnings for actions like neighborhood evacuations. However, issuing such warnings poses a dual challenge. On the one hand, it demands accurate forecasts, a difficult task given the heterogeneous nature of rainfall. On the other hand, modeling hydrological processes tied to flood prediction in urban and valley settings proves arduous due to their nonlinear characteristics. Additionally, the accuracy and lead time of forecasted precipitation significantly influence hydrological models, making it challenging for a warning system to generate reliable predictions of flooding events.
This study introduces a comprehensive flood prediction framework that combines: 1) a probabilistic seamless prediction model spanning up to 12 hours, achieved by blending 48 ensemble members from radar-based nowcasting and numerical weather prediction (NWP) ALARO/AROME models, and 2) a distributed hydrodynamic model tailored for urban flood prediction. The primary objective is to evaluate the framework's efficacy in predicting catchment responses, accounting for inherent uncertainties within the models.
For illustrative purposes, rainfall rate estimates are derived from the rain-gauge adjusted radar product managed by the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI). The blended forecast product is sourced from the open-source pysteps community, customized by the RMI for operational use. The hydrodynamic model for flood prediction is implemented through the InfoWorks ICM software, configured to simulate flooding at street level in the city of Antwerp, Belgium. Case studies involve impactful events that led to flooding in major cities within the Flanders area.
Initial findings indicate that, for a rapidly evolving convective storm, precipitation forecasts remained reliable up to 180 minutes in advance, while the flood forecast model predicted flooding levels 2 hours in advance. This analysis is anticipated to underscore the advantages and limitations of an integrated probabilistic approach to flood prediction at urban scales, emphasizing the necessary compatibilities among rainfall products and their representation of uncertainties. The insights gained from this study will contribute to the development of data-driven urban flood prediction models in Belgium for real-time hydrological forecasting. 
Imaging the Plio-Quaternary submarine geomorphological evolution of the Gulf of Cagliari
Authors: Caradonna Maria Cristina , Del Ben Anna , Geletti Riccardo , Pini Gian Andrea , Frisicchio Veronica , Ercilla Gemma , Estrada Ferran
Published: March 2024

Based on the morpho–bathymetric data coming from the MaGIC project (Marine Geohazards along the Italian Coast) and the high-resolution seismic reflection profiles acquired in 2010 by OGS-Explora, we depict the complex geomorphology of the Gulf of Cagliari and the evolution of the most striking morphosedimentary features developed during the PQ. The seafloor is shaped by the canyon system, the Sarroch and S. Elia-Foxy canyons. The obtained results point that their onset and location do not coincide with paleoincisions formed by the Messinian erosion. The main pathway changes of the Sarroch canyon are conditioned by extensional tectonics of the Campidano Graben and are controlled by the Banghittu High. Cut-and-fill features and infill deposits indicate that retrogressive erosive processes affect the canyon heads and produce landslides. transport deposits in the basin. In fact, four large MTD's have been recognized and analysed within the PQ sequence. They show different seismic facies, from transparent to chaotic, and are locally affected by internal deformational structures which allow us to distinguish the translational and compressional domains. The interplay between the morphosedimentary evolution of the systems canyons and the MTDs are useful to understanding the role played by the downslope channelized and non-channelized sedimentary processes over time and to explore the factors, local and/or global, controlling their occurrence and/or predominance. This analysis of the submarine canyon morphologies and occurrence of MTDs can help evaluate the potential geo-hazard implications of the region.
Experimental and numerical investigation of dislocation-based transient creep mechanisms in the upper mantle
Authors: Hein Diede , Hansen Lars
Published: March 2024

Transient creep of olivine in the upper mantle plays an important role in large-scale Earth processes such as glacial isostatic adjustment and postseismic creep, as well as (exo-)planetary tidal heating and orbital dynamics. Yet, an experimentally confirmed microphysical understanding of transient creep across all timescales relevant to Earth processes remains elusive. An increasing body of laboratory and geodetic work suggests that nonlinear, dislocation-based dissipation mechanisms may play a more important role than previously thought. In response, several dislocation-based transient creep mechanisms have been proposed to explain transient creep in the upper mantle, including intergranular plastic anisotropy and the build-up of backstresses arising from long-range dislocation interactions.  The time-dependent dissipation of strain energy during transient creep manifests as attenuation, Q-1, in the frequency domain. Therefore, the constitutive equations of the proposed mechanisms should be able to predict the attenuation in polycrystalline olivine subjected to forced oscillations, providing an independent test of their applicability. Here we present numerical investigation of the nonlinear constitutive equations of these models in the frequency domain and comparisons thereof to the mechanical results of a set of high-stress, forced-oscillation experiments on polycrystalline olivine performed in a deformation-DIA coupled with synchrotron analysis techniques. Key microstructural variables needed to inform these comparisons, such as grain size, plastic anisotropy, and dislocation density, were obtained from electron backscatter diffraction and dislocation decoration. The experiments demonstrate amplitude-dependent attenuation, which is characteristic of dislocation-based dissipation. In addition, we find that Q-1 depends on the maximum stress amplitude experienced by the sample. Dislocation-density piezometry indicates that this history effect can be linked to dislocation density evolution as post-experiment dislocation densities reflect the highest stresses obtained in the experiment rather than the stresses obtained near the end of the experiment. Numerical analysis of the constitutive equations yields high Q-1 values, up to ~5, which is similar to the experimental observations. We find that the experimental observations are consistent with predictions from the backstress model for the grain sizes and dislocation densities of our samples. When extrapolated to lower stress amplitudes, the backstress mechanism produces approximately linear behavior and behaves as a Burgers model in frequency space, suggesting that dislocation interactions may contribute to seismic wave attenuation as well.
Replacing parametrisations of melt ponds on sea ice with machine learning emulators
Authors: Driscoll Simon , Carrassi Alberto , Brajard Julien , Bertino Laurent , Bocquet Marc , Olason Einar , Lawless Amos
Published: March 2024

Sea ice plays an essential role in global ocean circulation and in regulating Earth's climate and weather, and melt ponds that form on the ice have a profound impact on the Arctic's climate by altering the ice albedo. Melt pond evolution is complex, sub grid scale and poorly understood - and melt ponds are represented in sea ice models as parametrisations. Parametrisations of these physical processes are based on a number of assumptions and can include many uncertain parameters that have a substantial effect on the simulated evolution of the melt ponds. We have shown, using Sobol sensitivity analysis and through investigating perturbed parameter ensembles (PPEs), that a state-of-the-art sea ice column model, Icepack, demonstrates substantial sensitivity to its uncertain melt pond parameters. These PPEs demonstrate that perturbing melt pond parameters (within known ranges of uncertainty) cause predicted sea ice thickness over the Arctic Ocean to differ by many metres after only a decade of simulation. Understanding the sources of uncertainty, improving parametrisations and fine tuning the parameters is a paramount, but usually very complex and difficult task. Given this uncertainty, we propose to replace the sub grid scale melt pond parametrisation (MPP) in Icepack with a machine learning emulator. Building and replacing the MPP with a machine learning emulator has been done in two broad steps that contain multiple computational challenges. The first is generating a melt pond emulator using 'perfect' or 'model' data. Here we demonstrate a proof of concept and show how we achieve numerically stable simulations of Icepack when embedding an emulator in place of the MPP - with Icepack running stably for the whole length of the simulations (over a decade) across the Arctic. Secondly, we develop offline an emulator from observational data that faithfully predicts observed sea ice albedo and melt pond fraction given climatological input variables. Embedding an observational emulator can require different challenges as compared to using model data, such as not all variables needed by the host model being observable/observed for an emulator to predict. We discuss how we achieve online simulations interfacing this emulator with the Icepack model.Our focus on using column models ensures that our observational emulator of sea ice albedo and melt pond fraction can readily be used in sea ice models around the world, irrespective of grid resolutions and mesh specifications, and offers one approach for creating general emulators that can be used by many climate models. 
A Compact Gamma-Ray and Neutron Detector for Abundance Mapping on the Moon
Authors: Kohfeldt Anja , Al Jebali Ramsey , Teodoro Luis
Published: March 2024

Neutron detection, as well as gamma-ray spectroscopy are powerful tools for in-situ resources utilization. They allow for characterizing the abundance of hydrogen and elemental composition of the top meter of moons, airless planets, or asteroids. Compact instruments can be deployed both on orbiters and landers/rovers for either mapping larger areas or narrowing down locations with targeted materials. A more specific application is the abundance mapping of water in the lunar polar regions. To improve the Lunar Prospector resolution maps, a satellite in a low altitude orbit, below 30km, of the lunar surface is needed. This can be accomplished by a small satellite, like a CubeSat. We propose a hybrid gamma-ray and neutron detector based on scintillator technology for space exploration, sensitive to gamma-rays in the spectral range of 30keV to 8MeV as well as to thermal and epithermal neutrons. The detector consists of an array of CLLBC scintillators that are read out by silicon photomultipliers attached to partially space-qualified read-out electronics provided by IDEAS. In the targeted configuration, the compact instrument will have the size of tow CubeSat units (2U), where one unit is covered in Cd to allow for the distinction between epithermal and thermal neutrons.A good understanding of the targeted radiation environment is vital for simulating and characterizing the instrument’s performance before deployment. We performed an environmental analysis for the Moon that provides the input parameters for detector response simulation in GEANT4.  With the detector response simulation, the detector design can be optimized, and characterization measurement data from the physical instrument can be verified.In this paper, we present the mechanism behind the detection of targeted elements, such as hydrogen, KREEP, Fe, Ti and Sm, the results from the lunar radiation environment simulation and first results from the detector response simulation. A demonstrator instrument was assembled and tested in a laboratory, the first results look promising, showing that the targeted energy range for gamma-ray and neutrons can be detected. The performance of the lab demonstrator will be presented, as well.
Pore pressure evolution in media with isotropic and anisotropic permeability - analytical and numerical solutions
Authors: Sharia Tatia , Rietbrock Andreas , Müller Birgit , Niederhuber Thomas
Published: March 2024

Understanding perturbations caused by underground fluid injection and extraction is essential for steady long-lasting operations of subsurface energy systems (e.g. geothermal systems). The systems are often too complex to obtain precise analytical solutions and computationally expensive to have fine numerical results. Simplified settings give the benefit of understanding the role of driving geological parameters as well as examining the limits of each approach. In this study, we focus on the influence of permeability on pore pressure and present analytical and numerical solutions of spatial and temporal evolutions of pore pressure in an elastic homogeneous porous media with isotropic and anisotropic permeabilities. We use COMSOL Multiphysics to build a 3D finite element model with injection/production wells and investigate where the numerical solutions of the spatially limited volume coincide and diverge from corresponding analytical solutions of pore pressure in infinite media.
Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis: new purposes, new users, new challenges
Authors: Pianosi Francesca , Bloomfield Hannah , Coxon Gemma , Reinecke Robert , Salwey Saskia , Sarailidis Georgios , Wagener Thorsten , Wendt Doris
Published: March 2024

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are becoming an integral part of mathematical modelling of earth and environmental systems. Uncertainty analysis aims at quantifying uncertainty in model outputs, which helps to avoid spurious precision and increase the trustworthiness of model-informed decisions. Sensitivity analysis aims at identifying the key sources of output uncertainty, which helps to set priorities for uncertainty reduction and model improvement.In this presentation, we draw on a range of recent studies and projects to discuss the status of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis, focusing in particular on ‘global’ approaches, whereby uncertainties and sensitivities are quantified across the entire space of plausible variability of model inputs.We highlight some of the challenges and untapped potential of these methodologies, including: (1) innovative ways to use global sensitivity analysis to test the ‘internal consistency’ of models and therefore support their diagnostic evaluation; (2) challenges and opportunities to promote the uptake of these methodologies to increasingly complex models, chains of models, and models used in industry; (3) the limits of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis when dealing with epistemic, poorly bounded or unquantifiable sources of uncertainties.
Amplified Risk: How Climate Change is Modifying the Risks from Geological Hazards
Authors: Beroya-Eitner Mary Antonette , Stenner Heidi , Bowman Luke , Nelson Kate
Published: March 2024

The global climate is changing, and the effects of these changes on natural hazards are increasingly being felt, particularly by the populations in low- and middle-income countries. Consequently, in the last decades, there has been much research examining the extent of these effects, but the focus has largely been on hydrometeorological hazards. The potential effects of climate change on geological hazards, like earthquakes and volcanic activity, is less studied and deserves greater attention.Amplified Risk is a four-year program currently being led by the GeoHazards International (GHI), a non-profit committed to saving lives by empowering at-risk communities worldwide to build resilience ahead of disasters and climate impacts. Funded by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), the overarching goal of the program is to increase collective understanding of how volcanic and earthquake hazards and their societal impacts may be affected by climate change in at-risk low- and middle-income countries.In line with this, we have thus far explored through literature review and subject matter expert consultations how climate change may alter earthquake and volcanic processes and associated hazards, considering eight climate change signals as the starting point: increased precipitation, decreased precipitation, increased temperature, increased rain-drought cycles, increased free-thaw cycles, increased typhoons, increased wind and sea level rise. Our results show the potential amplifying, cascading, and compounding effects of climate change on geological hazards.   In general, climate change can affect earthquake and volcanic hazards in two ways: Firstly, it can directly trigger or contribute to directly triggering the hazards as a result of stress regime change following climate-induced variations of loads on the earth surface, mainly due to changes in the volume of ice and water, e.g., glacier melting. Secondly, climate change prepares the ground so that the occurrence of secondary hazards becomes more likely should an earthquake or volcanic eruption occur. For instance, increased precipitation increases soil saturation, making liquefaction more likely in the event of an earthquake.     In this presentation, we discuss the findings to date in more detail. We also present the flowchart that summarizes our result, which we intend to publish online as an interactive informational tool that may be useful to risk managers, authorities, community leaders, and researchers in appraising the range of effects from climate change on local hazards, and therefore in determining and prioritizing intervention measures.