bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Management Planning and Control—What Next?
Authors: Kircher Paul
Published: November 2008

How will electronics and scientific analysis change management planning and control? Five years ago this question held no interest for businessmen. Computers were used only for high speed calculation. There was none of the equipment needed for rapid input, and printed output, for rapid sorting, and for access to large volumes of storage. Five years ago a few scientists suspected that their new methods might be applied to business problems, but the change from the logistics of war to the planning and control of business proved more difficult than they had hoped. Now, five years later, the rush is on.
Application of Linear Programming to Investments in the Electric Power Industry
Authors: Massé P. , Gibrat R.
Published: November 2008

In France, the investment operations in basic industries, notably in the railroad, coal, electricity, and gas sectors, are submitted for approval of the government and the parliament. The authors of these programs have thus to determine the most economical solution of problems and then to enlighten and persuade the authorities in charge of approving operations. Towards the end of 1954 and the beginning of 1955, in the course of undertaking these tasks we found ourselves independently faced with remarkably similar problems.
Statistical Sampling Techniques in the Aging of Accounts Receivable in a Department Store
Authors: Cyert R. M. , Trueblood Robert M.
Published: November 2008

In the economic systems of most industrial countries the bulk of the sales made by business concerns of any significant size is in the form of credit sales. In large retail outlets such as department stores, credit sales become even more important and the number of accounts receivable becomes exceedingly large. Under such conditions the proper credit policy to be followed becomes a management problem of the first magnitude. In addition to the proper credit policy it is necessary for management to determine the proper reserve for uncollectibles. One of the traditional methods of generating information on these questions has been the aging of the accounts receivable. It is precisely on management problems of this kind, where good information about large masses of data must be derived, that modern statistical sampling techniques can play an important role. When the data for decision-making purposes are the result of a statistical sample, management has an objective measure of the quality of the data on which the decision may be made. The specific objective of this paper is to demonstrate the usefulness of statistical sampling in the aging of receivables for the purpose of setting the allowance for uncollectibles.
Limitations of the Scientific Method in Management Science
Authors: Weinwurm Ernest H.
Published: November 2008

The scientists who have suggested improvements of the techniques of managerial analysis and decision making through the application of the “scientific method” have called attention to a worthwhile and important goal. Their proposals are bound to initiate a process of self-analysis and re-appraisal of the current methodical foundations of managerial policies. But the challenge in itself—even if made in a very determined manner—is no proof of its correctness and adequacy though this seems to be the opinion of some of the challengers.

In order to arrive at a final conclusion it is essential to determine whether the scientific method is as applicable and valuable in the managerial field as it has proven to be in the physical sciences. The basic assumptions and procedures of the scientific method must be examined as a prerequisite for such a determination.

No comprehensive analysis of such a broad problem is possible within the scope of this paper. The presentation will have to be restricted to a few characteristic examples to indicate the fundamental trends. Much more work will have to be done as a preliminary for reaching results which may be widely accepted. The principal purpose is to encourage such work.
Ss Inventory Policy with Variable Delivery Time
Authors: Freeman Raoul J.
Published: November 2008

In this paper we study the question of determining an Ss inventory policy in the presence of delivery time being a random variable. Otherwise the usual conditions of the problem are retained (demand is considered a random variable, etc.). We will use the basic work of Whitin (Whitin, Thomson M. 1953. The Theory of Inventory Management. Princeton University Press, Princeton.), as a starting point, and develop our analysis as an extension of his exposition (where delivery time is taken as being constant). It will be our purpose to derive formulas for the determination of the order size and of the reordering point.
A Lower Multinomial Bound for the Total Overstatement Error in Accounting Populations
Authors: Plante Robert , Neter John , Leitch Robert A.
Published: November 2008

A lower bound on the total error in an accounting population is required, in conjunction with the point estimate of the total error amount and the upper bound, when adjusting an account to determine the amount of the adjustment. This paper extends the multinomial methodology for obtaining an upper bound on the total overstatement (or understatement) error in an accounting population to the determination of a lower bound on the total overstatement (or understatement) error. The methodology for obtaining a lower multinomial bound differs in several important respects from that for obtaining an upper bound. The proposed lower bound may be computed for up to 25 errors in the sample and provides tighter limits than the widely used Stringer bound.
Approximations of Dynamic, Multilocation Production and Inventory Problems
Authors: Federgruen Awi , Zipkin Paul
Published: November 2008

Consider a central depot (or plant) which supplies several locations experiencing random demands. Orders are placed (or production is initiated) periodically by the depot. The order arrives after a fixed lead time, and is then allocated among the several locations. (The depot itself does not hold inventory.) The allocations are finally received at the demand points after another lag. Unfilled demand at each location is backordered. Linear costs are incurred at each location for holding inventory and for backorders. Also, costs are assessed for orders placed by the depot. The object is to minimize the expected total cost of the system over a finite number of time periods.

This system gives rise to a dynamic program with a state space of very large dimension. We show that this model can be systematically approximated by a single-location inventory problem. All the qualitative and quantitative results for such problems can then be applied.
Solving the Discrete Multiple Criteria Problem using Convex Cones
Authors: Korhonen Pekka , Wallenius Jyrki , Zionts Stanley
Published: November 2008

An interactive method employing pairwise comparisons of attainable solutions is developed for solving the discrete, deterministic multiple criteria problem assuming a single decision maker who has an implicit quasi-concave increasing utility (or value) function. The method chooses an arbitrary set of positive multipliers to generate a proxy composite linear objective function which is then maximized over the set of solutions. The maximizing solution is compared with several solutions using pairwise judgments asked of the decision maker. Responses are used to eliminate alternatives using convex cones based on expressed preferences, and then a new set of weights is found that satisfies the indicated preferences. The requisite theory and proofs as well as a detailed numerical example are included. In addition, the results of some computational experiments to test the effectiveness of the method are described.
Incomplete Information, High-Low Bidding and Public Information in First Price Auctions
Authors: Lee Tom K.
Published: November 2008

High-low bidding refers to auctions of a series of objects where for a subset of the auctioned objects one of two buyers bids high on some objects and low on others while the other buyer does the reverse. This paper shows that high-low bidding does not imply collusive behavior among buyers. In particular, through a formal modeling of a noncooperative game of information acquisition and bidding decisions, it shows that high-low bidding can be obtained. The paper also demonstrates that if the cost of information to a seller is less than the equilibrium joint expected information cost of the buyers, then it pays the seller to provide public information. Finally, if the provision of public information is not feasible but a seller can know whether buyers have acquired information, then it pays the seller to make known to the buyers and to pursue a policy that just prior to the start of an auction the seller will announce which buyer has acquired information.
Coalition Formation in a Five-Person Market Game
Authors: Rapoport Amnon , Kahan James P.
Published: November 2008

Market games constitute a class of cooperative n-person games with sidepayments in which several coalitions may form simultaneously. In order to study coalition forming behavior in such games and to test the descriptive power of four major solution concepts that yield differing prescriptions for market games, 11 pentads of students each played 6 different market games presented in characteristic function form through a computer-controlled experimental procedure. The outcomes showed strong consistencies over pentads and sharp differences among games. None of the models fully accounted for these data. Instead, considerations of sequential formation of coalitions within a coalition structure, the concept of maximal share structure suggested in the equal share solution, and a recently developed model, that encompasses the predictions of the bargaining set and equal shares, served jointly as the first-order determinants of both the decision of which coalition to form and the allocation of payoff to coalition members.
Organization Strategy and Structural Differences for Radical Versus Incremental Innovation
Authors: Ettlie John E. , Bridges William P. , O'Keefe Robert D.
Published: November 2008

The purpose of this study was to test a model of the organizational innovation process that suggests that the strategy-structure causal sequence is differentiated by radical versus incremental innovation. That is, unique strategy and structure will be required for radical innovation, especially process adoption, while more traditional strategy and structure arrangements tend to support new product introduction and incremental process adoption. This differentiated theory is strongly supported by data from the food processing industry. Specifically, radical process and packaging adoption are significantly promoted by an aggressive technology policy and the concentration of technical specialists. Incremental process adoption and new product introduction tends to be promoted in large, complex, decentralized organizations that have market dominated growth strategies.

Findings also suggest that more traditional structural arrangements might be used for radical change initiation if the general tendencies that occur in these dimensions as a result of increasing size can be delayed, briefly modified, or if the organization can be partitioned structurally for radical vs. incremental innovation. In particular, centralization of decision making appears to be necessary for radical process adoption along with the movement away from complexity toward more organizational generalists. This suggests that a greater support of top managers in the innovation process is necessary to initiate and sustain radical departures from the past for that organization.
Note—Comment on “Aggregate Safety Stock Levels and Component Part Commonality”
Authors: McClain John O. , Maxwell William L. , Muckstadt John A. , Thomas L. Joseph , Weiss Elliott N.
Published: November 2008

In this Note, we address the issue of safety stock considerations in an MRP environment through the use of a single identical component as a replacement for a set of multiple components. We indicate where the results reported by Collier (Collier, David A. 1982. Aggregate safety stock levels and component part commonality. Management Sci. 28 (11, November) 1296–1303.) may prove to be misleading.
The Nature and Design of Post-Industrial Organizations
Authors: Huber George P.
Published: November 2008

This paper describes the nature and design of post-industrial organizations. It begins with an assessment of the popular literature on post-industrial society, and finds that this literature is an inappropriate basis for inferring the nature of post-industrial organizations. Partly as a consequence of this finding, the paper turns to systems theory as a basis for determining both the nature of post-industrial society and the nature of the increased demands that this environment would impose on post-industrial organizations. The middle three sections of the paper describe design features that post-industrial organizations will employ to deal with these demands. In particular they examine designs for making more effective three processes that will exhibit increased importance in post-industrial organizations: (1) decision-making, (2) innovation, and (3) information acquisition and distribution.

In addition to its conclusions concerning the design features that post-industrial organizations will possess, the paper sets forth three general conclusions. One of these is that, even though the aggregate of the demands on post-industrial organizations will be qualitatively greater than that experienced by previous organizations, there are design features that organizations can adopt that will enable them to cope with even worst-case loadings of these demands. A second conclusion is that the nature of the post-industrial environment will cause decision-making, innovation, and information acquisition and distribution to take on added importance in post-industrial organizations, and that one result of this will be that organizations will attempt to ensure routine effectiveness of these processes through increased formalization. In some cases this formalization will have as its purpose ensuring the existence of informal (or at least unstructured) activities, such as experimentation by “self-designing” organizations or acquisition of “soft” information by top managers.

The third conclusion set forth is that during the current transition period between the industrial and post-industrial societies we can expect many organizations to fail, or to flee to less than wholly desirable niches, because they are ignorant of the post-industrial technologies, structures, and processes that would enable them to successfully engage the post-industrial environment and to become viable post-industrial organizations. It appears that an important task of organizational and management scientists during this period will be to aid in the development, transfer, and implementation of post-industrial design features and in this way help reduce the possibility of unnecessary failure or flight.
Sequencing Rules and Due-Date Assignments in a Job Shop
Authors: Baker Kenneth R.
Published: November 2008

Recent research studies of job shop scheduling have begun to examine the interaction between sequencing priorities and the method of assigning due-dates. This paper surveys the tactical aspects of this interaction, focusing primarily on average tardiness as a measure of scheduling effectiveness. The discussion highlights several factors that can affect the performance of dispatching rules, such as the average flow allowance, the due-date assignment method, and the use of progress milestones. A set of simulation experiments illuminates how these factors interact with the dispatching rule, and the experimental results suggest which combinations are most effective in a scheduling system.
Reply—Putting a Premium on Regret
Authors: Bell David E.
Published: November 2008

Anand (Anand, P. 1985. Testing regret. Management Sci. 31 114–116.) has suggested that measuring the sacrifice a person is prepared to make to avoid regret may be more difficult than I suggest in Bell (Bell, D. E. 1983. Risk premiums for decision regret. Management Sci. 29 1156–1166.). Though he believes regret is probably widespread, he is concerned that regret may be confounded with other of the psychological phenomena that I have discussed, especially disappointment (Bell [Bell, D. E. 1985. Disappointment in decision making under uncertainty. Harvard Business School Working Paper 83-18, 1982. Oper. Res. (January--February).]). I will use this opportunity for response to set my work in perspective.
Scheduling to Minimize Maximum Workload
Authors: Lüthi Hans-Jakob , Polyméris Andrés
Published: November 2008

We pose the following problem: given m jobs, each of which requires a certain total amount of labour that must be performed within specified time periods, how should one schedule the jobs' execution to obtain a total workload that is as even as possible? A related question is: what is the minimal work capacity needed to accomplish all jobs? These questions can be formulated as a linear program, but the number of variables and constraints required usually will be large. Using linear duality theory we instead derive a purely combinatorial problem whose resolution leads to the needed minimal capacity, and thus to the imposed bottleneck. Then we concentrate on the important special case where the time constraints for performing each job are in the form of a single time interval: We detail a simple procedure that efficiently determines the minimal capacity and the bottleneck. A second efficient combinatorial algorithm determines a feasible execution schedule which minimizes the maximum total workload. These algorithms require a computational time of the order of m2 and negligible core memory, and for most practical applications can be implemented on microcomputers.
On the Replenishment of Repair Kit Inventories for Systems with Life Distributions of Phase Type
Authors: Wells Charles E. , Bryant John L.
Published: November 2008

Several models are developed for the evaluation of replenishment policies for an inventory of repair kits used by a system subject to both repairable and nonrepairable failures. At the time of a repairable failure, a repair kit is removed from inventory and used to renew the system. Nonrepairable failures are assumed to occur at some time in the future distributed as a random variable of phase type and permanently terminate the life of the system. Under general stochastic assumptions concerning the lifetime of the components and the time required to perform repair, reorder strategies are identified which maximize the expected net discounted contribution over the lifetime of the systems.
A Multiobjective Discrete Optimization Model for Land Allocation
Authors: Gilbert Kenneth C. , Holmes David D. , Rosenthal Richard E.
Published: November 2008

A multiobjective integer programming model is presented for allocating an area of land for development. The objectives considered in the allocation are cost, proximity to desirable and undesirable land features and the shape of the area. An interactive multiobjective optimization algorithm is presented and applied to the model. The algorithm generates a subset of efficient solutions with some guidance from the decision maker at each iteration as to what constitutes a “preferred” efficient point. The algorithm calls for the frequent solution of subproblems which constrain all but one of the objectives while optimizing the remaining one. In the land allocation model, the subproblems are integer programs solved efficiently by specialized enumeration techniques. For some of the subproblems (namely, those using proximity as the single objective), the first feasible solution we enumerate is guaranteed optimal. For the other subproblems, we show that an algorithm with this fortunate property would require the solution of an NP-hard problem at each step of the enumeration. The model and algorithm were tested in locating potential sites for a 13-acre residential development within a 2250-acre study area near Norris, Tennessee.
Optimal Capacity Expansion Over an Infinite Horizon
Authors: Bean James C. , Smith Robert L.
Published: November 2008

The problem of choosing an optimal initial capacity expansion from a finite number of durable facility sizes is affected by potential future expansion decisions. As we consider such expansions over longer and longer study horizons, the optimal initial facility choice can fluctuate due to end-of-study effects. We discuss an algorithm that will determine, for arbitrary deterministic demand profiles, how long a horizon is sufficient to reach stability in the first facility choice. Moreover, it is shown that this first choice is the optimal first choice for the infinite horizon problem. We also establish an explicit analytical formula for a study horizon guaranteed to provide a first facility size that, followed by an infinite horizon expansion strategy, will attain a discounted cost within a predetermined maximal error of the optimal infinite horizon cost.
Note—Opposition of Interest in Subjective Bayesian Theory
Authors: Kadane Joseph B.
Published: November 2008

A characterization is given of diametrically opposed interests between two players: either neither is a Bayesian, or both have a unique probability and utility function (up to the usual transformation) or both have many possible probabilities and utilities. In the second case, their utility functions must have representations that sum to zero, and they must have identical probability distributions on every uncertain event in the space. Implications of this result for negotiations and for game theory are discussed.
Optimal Weighted lp Norm Parameters for Facilities Layout Distance Characterizations
Authors: Love Robert F. , Dowling Paul D.
Published: November 2008

The distances used in certain types of industrial, office or street grid layouts are often assumed to be rectangular. Because of the “doubling back” effect caused by finite block and facility sizes, actual distances travelled are often much greater than indicated by the l1 norm. In this study the weighted lp norm is fitted to a certain commonly occurring class of layout patterns. The optimal best-fit parameters are reported in addition to other observations which should be useful to users of distance models. The results give strong support for the use of the l1 norm in determining optimal facility locations when travel distances are rectangular and doubling back occurs. However, the l1 norm is not appropriate for modelling actual travel distances under the same circumstances.
Using Simulation to Estimate First Passage Distribution
Authors: Ross Sheldon M. , Schechner Zvi
Published: November 2008

Consider a discrete time Markov process {Xn, n > 0}. For a given subset 𝒜 of the state space, consider the problem of using simulation to estimate the number of transitions it takes the process to enter 𝒜. Using estimators based on the “observed hazard,” we are able to improve on the usual Monte Carlo estimator. We also consider the problem of estimating the distribution of the first state in, 𝒜 to be reached, and then extend our results to continuous time.
Innovation in a Newly Industrializing Country: A Multiple Discriminant Analysis
Authors: Kim Linsu , Kim Youngbae
Published: November 2008

This article examines 42 innovative firms in a newly industrializing country, Korea. It identifies different patterns of innovation associated with four types of firms, which is categorized by two variables: the source of initiation and the local availability of related foreign products. Bivariate analyses suggest that innovation patterns are distinctly different for Type I firms (user initiated and related foreign products locally available) and Type IV firms (innovator initiated and no related foreign products locally available). Type I firms use and benefit most from close interactions with customers and visits to the domestic users of related foreign products, while Type IV firms benefit most from the overseas observation of foreign suppliers and the assistance of local R&D institutes. The other two groups are more closely related but still different from the above two groups. The results of a multiple discriminant analysis are supportive of the patterns which emerged in the bivariate analyses. It was also found that majority of important and crucial information to solve technical problems were transferred free of charge from abroad through informal mechanisms rather than formal collaboration with foreign firms. The findings suggest that different situations call for different approaches to make innovations successful.
On Competition to Join a Simple Queueing System Before the Facility Opens
Authors: Bell Colin E.
Published: November 2008

A single server provides FIFO services commencing at time 0. Each member of a population of N potential customers must decide whether or not to arrive at the facility. Customers choosing to arrive must do so no later than time 0. This paper studies the benefit to customers: the value of service received minus the cost of waiting time.

This model is studied under a variety of assumptions and the impact of customer behavior on average benefit (value of service minus cost of waiting) is examined. Self-interested customers compete with each other (by arriving sufficiently early) to the extent that much of the potential benefit is dissipated through high waiting costs before time 0. A common finding is that no customer can attain a benefit which improves on that which would result from arriving exactly at time 0 and being last in line. The impact of charging entrance tolls is investigated.
Note—Response to “Equilibrium Strategies for Final-Offer Arbitration: There is No Median Convergence”
Authors: Rabow Gerald
Published: November 2008

For an arbitrator model different from the one in the referenced paper, final-offer arbitration (FOA) is very effective. This suggests that strategies for conducting successful FOA may be available to arbitrators. In the above quoted paper, Brams and Merrill (Brams, Steven J., Samuel Merrill, III. 1983. Equilibrium strategies for final-offer arbitration: there is no median convergence. Management Sci. 29 (August) 927–941.) quote a statement on final-offer arbitration (FOA): “The theory which underlies final-offer arbitration is quite simple. If the arbitrator or panel was permitted to select only one or the other of the parties' final offers, with no power to make a choice anywhere in between, it was expected that the logic of the procedure would force negotiating parties to continue moving closer together in search of a position that would be most likely to receive neutral sympathy. Ultimately, so the argument went, they would come so close together that they would almost inevitably find their own settlement.” and then refute it as follows: “One purpose of our article is to show that there is little truth to this theory: divergence, rather than convergence, of equilibrium strategies is the norm.”
A Forward Simplex Method for Staircase Linear Programs
Authors: Aronson Jay E. , Morton Thomas E. , Thompson Gerald L.
Published: November 2008

Modelling planning problems that extend over many time periods as linear programs leads to a special structure called a “staircase” or “dynamic” linear program. In this special structure, the nonzero coefficients of the linear program appear in blocks along the “main diagonal” of the coefficient matrix. Such problems are commonly found in economic planning, structural design, agricultural planning, dynamic traffic assignment, production planning, and scheduling models. Forward algorithms provide an approach to solving these dynamic problems by solving successively longer finite horizon subproblems, terminating when a stopping rule can be invoked (or a decision horizon found). Such algorithms are available for a large number of specific models. Here we discuss the implementation and testing of a forward algorithm for solving general dynamic (staircase) linear programs. Tests reported indicate that the solution time is linear in the number of periods of the staircase problem, as compared to a quadratic or cubic relationship for standard linear programming codes. Computational decision horizons are often found, and are responsible for the good performance of the algorithm.
Bayes Solution to Dynamic Inventory Models Under Unknown Demand Distribution
Authors: Azoury Katy S.
Published: November 2008

This paper considers the periodic review inventory problem for which one or more parameters of the demand distribution are unknown with a known prior distribution chosen from the natural conjugate family. The Bayesian formulation of this problem results in a dynamic program with a multi-dimensional state space. Two models are analysed: the depletive inventory model of consumable items and the nondepletive model of reparable items. For both models and for some specific demand distributions, it is shown that the solution of the Bayesian model can be reduced to that of solving another dynamic program with a one-dimensional state space. Moreover, an explicit form for the optimal Bayesian ordering policy is given in each case.
The Optimal Acquisition of Automation to Enhance the Productivity of Labor
Authors: Gaimon Cheryl
Published: November 2008

Decisions concerning the mix of automation and labor employed by an organization are embedded in the long-term strategic plan since the composition of productive capacity impacts on an organization's ability to survive and compete. In this paper, the optimal mix of automation and labor is identified for automation which acts to enhance the productivity of an organization's workforce. The incentives considered for acquiring automation are increasing the level of output, reducing the high cost of labor, and compensating for a limited supply of labor. Factors explicitly examined by the model include the future long-term goal level of output, costs associated with maintaining the workforce (wages) and automation, and costs associated with changing the levels of workforce and automation. Since the formulation is dynamic so that all exogenous and decision variables may be expressed as functions of time, the effects of technological improvement, increasing wage rates, changing labor supply, and diminishing returns as additional automation is acquired are considered.
Optimal and Heuristic Procedures for Component Lot-Splitting in Multi-Stage Manufacturing Systems
Authors: Moily Jaya P.
Published: November 2008

Component lot-splitting considerations, in which the lot-size of a component item may cover only a fraction of its parent item's lot-size, have been ignored in the literature when determining lot-sizes of items in multi-stage manufacturing systems. In this paper, a multi-stage lot-sizing problem is formulated under a specified component lot-splitting policy for the case of noninstantaneous production of items and constant demand for the end item. Optimal and heuristic solution procedures for the formulated problem are provided, including experimental results of comparison between these procedures. It is shown that considerable cost savings can result if the component lot-splitting approach is employed under favorable conditions in multi-stage manufacturing environments. In addition, reduced inventory levels are achieved which translate into lower working capital requirements and a less cluttered shop floor. The heuristic procedure is recommended as an acceptable alternative to the optimal procedure if the number of items in the multi-stage system is large or if inventory carrying and setup/order costs cannot be accurately estimated. Further, component lot-splitting considerations may be ignored if production rates of facilities in the system are in balance. Finally, a methodology for application of the component lot-splitting policy where the end item demand is time-varying is discussed.
Subjective Probability and the Prisoner's Dilemma
Authors: Wilson John G.
Published: November 2008

The paradox involved in sequences of Prisoner's Dilemma games is due to the fact that game theoretic definitions of optimality rarely coincide with any natural meaning of the word. Decision makers should incorporate their beliefs and experience into any mathematical analysis of the games. Once this has been done, via subjective probabilities, use of the cooperative move in iterated Prisoner's Dilemma games can often be justified. The paper provides a simple algorithm for determining an optimal strategy, once the decision maker's subjective probabilities have been specified.
A Branch and Bound Approach for Machine Load Balancing in Flexible Manufacturing Systems
Authors: Berrada Mohammed , Stecke Kathryn E.
Published: November 2008

A flexible manufacturing system (FMS) is an integrated system of computer numerically controlled machine tools connected with automated material handling. A set of production planning problems for FMSs has been defined (Stecke [Stecke, Kathryn E. 1983. Formulation and solution of nonlinear integer production planning problems for flexible manufacturing systems. Management Sci. 29 (3, March) 273–288.]), and this paper considers one called the loading problem. This problem involves assigning to the machine tools, operations and associated cutting tools required for part types that have been selected to be produced simultaneously. The part types will be machined during the upcoming production period (say, of one to three weeks duration on average) and according to a prespecified part mix. This assignment is constrained by the capacity of each machine's tool magazine as well as by the production capacities of both the system, and each machine type. There are several loading objectives that are applicable in a flexible manufacturing situation. This paper considers the most commonly applied one, that of balancing the workload on all machines.

This paper first discusses a nonlinear integer mathematical programming formulation of the loading problem. The problem is formulated in all detail. Then an efficient solution procedure is proposed and illustrated with an example. Computational results are provided to demonstrate the efficiency of the suggested special-purpose procedures.
A Single Product Cycling Problem Under Brownian Motion Demand
Authors: Vickson R. G.
Published: November 2008

This paper treats a continuous review, single product stochastic cycling problem with demand modelled as a Brownian motion process. A broad class of production policies is admitted: they may be nonstationary, non-Markovian, or, in fact, almost arbitrary. Control theory is used to show that, within this wide class of policies, a simple, stationary, two-number policy is optimal for the average cost minimization problem. This policy switches production on when it is currently off and net inventory reaches a low critical level, or switches it off when it is on and net inventory reaches a high critical level. Simple methods are developed for obtaining the optimal critical levels numerically. Examples are developed comparing the results with those given by Graves and Keilson for a different demand process having the same mean and variance per unit time.
Implications of Salesforce Productivity Heterogeneity and Demotivation: A Navy Recruiter Case Study
Authors: Carroll Vincent P. , Lee Hau L. , Rao Ambar G.
Published: November 2008

This paper describes a study of Navy recruiter productivity at the individual recruiter level. Timeseries of monthly contract production by each of 345 recruiters who served for six months or more during the period May 1977–December 1978 formed the basis of the study. A wide variation in job tenure was observed in this data with some recruiters beginning their normal three-year tour of duty, and others in their second or third years. Two key empirical findings are reported here:

(1) in addition to the expected learning period at the beginning of a recruiter's tour of duty there was a severe and extended demotivational (or “delearning”) period at the end of the tour. Production during these periods was very low.

(2) substantial heterogeneity existed in recruiter productivity after controlling for the impact of tenure. Recruiter performance is predictable—good recruiters tend to stay good while poor recruiters continue to perform poorly.

A stochastic model for heterogeneous production is developed and an early rotation policy for poorly performing recruiters is proposed. Under this policy a recruiter is observed for N months after the learning period. If total production in N months is less than c, the recruiter is rotated out and is replaced by a new recruiter.

It is shown that the optimal selection of N and c can substantially improve recruiter force productivity. Productivity improves even when these parameters deviate somewhat from optimality.

U.S. Navy Recruiting command initiatives that resulted from this and related studies are described. They included a change in the measure used for recruiter goal setting and an incentive system which led to rewards for superior recruiters and reassigning poorly performing recruiters to nonrecruiting duty.

Finally the paper discusses the implications of the results obtained for industrial salesforces.
Note—Ordinal Ranking and Intensity of Preference: A Linear Programming Approach
Authors: Ali Iqbal , Cook Wade D. , Kress Moshe
Published: November 2008

Cook and Kress (Cook, Wade D., Moshe Kress. 1985. Ordinal ranking with intensity of preference. Management Sci. 31 (1) 26–32.) present a model for representing ordinal preference rankings, where the voter can express intensity or degree of preference. The consensus of a set of m rankings is that ranking whose distance from this set is minimal. The consensus problem is then shown to be an integer programming problem with a piecewise linear convex objective function. In the present note we prove that the constraint matrix for this integer problem is totally unimodular. In addition, it is shown that the problem can be expressed as an equivalent integer linear programming problem. These two facts allow us to represent the consensus problem as a linear programming model. To further facilitate an efficient solution procedure to the consensus problem, it is shown that the number of columns in the L.P. model can generally be reduced significantly. Computational results on a wide range of problems is presented.
Expert Resolution
Authors: Winkler Robert L.
Published: November 2008

This paper discusses some current issues in the combination of probabilities and serves as an introduction to a series of four papers and a rejoinder relating to a paper by Morris (Morris, P. A. 1983. An axiomatic approach to expert resolution. Management Sci. 29 24–32.) on an axiomatic approach to expert resolution. The axiomatic approach and the modeling approach to expert resolution are discussed, and some comments on practical issues are given.
Analysis and Generalisation of a Multivariate Exponential Smoothing Model
Authors: Harvey A. C.
Published: November 2008

The multivariate exponential smoothing model of Enns, Machak, Spivey and Wrobleski is examined and it is found that its structure is such that it can be estimated by using techniques designed for a univariate exponential smoothing model. Similarly forecasts can be made using algorithms for the univariate model. The model can therefore be handled very easily. A more general univariate time series model, which can include polynomial trends and seasonal factors, is then set up and a multivariate generalisation, analogous to the multivariate exponential smoothing model, is introduced. It is shown that this model can also be handled using algorithms designed for the univariate case.
Note—Erratum: A Computational Error in a Nonlinear Programming Example
Authors: Clements Denis T. , Buoni Frederick B. , Goicoechea Ambrose
Published: November 2008

In an early paper, Griffith and Stewart (Griffith, R. E., R. A. Stewart. 1961. A nonlinear programming technique for the optimization of continuous processing systems. Management Sci. 7 379–392.) presented a method for applying linear programming to a linearized form of some nonlinear programming problems. An arithmetic error in the numerical example given in that paper is discussed, and corrected values of the example are presented.
The Use of Screening in Policy Analysis
Authors: Walker Warren E.
Published: November 2008

In most policy analysis studies there are a large number of alternative policies and a large number of impacts to be considered. Time and budget constraints make it impossible to calculate all the impacts for all of the alternatives. As a result, such studies include some process for reducing the number of alternatives to be examined in detail. The process is often implicit and nonscientific (e.g., only the decisionmaker's three favorite alternatives are considered).

This paper suggests that policy analysis studies explicitly include a screening step, in which the alternatives to be examined in detail and those to be excluded from further consideration are chosen in a scientific and systematic manner. The output from this step is a relatively small set of policy alternatives that are sufficiently attractive that they deserve a more thorough evaluation. Two general screening strategies are described. They are illustrated by describing the screening step in a study to help determine an overall water management policy for the Netherlands.
A Comparative Evaluation of Heuristic Line Balancing Techniques
Authors: Talbot F. Brian , Patterson James H. , Gehrlein William V.
Published: November 2008

In this paper, we report on a computational experiment designed to assess the efficacy of 26 heuristic decision rules which group work tasks into work stations along an assembly line such that the number of work stations required is minimized. The heuristic decision rules investigated vary from simple list processing procedures that consider a single attribute of each work task for assignment, to procedures which are optimal seeking, but which have had their search terminated through the imposition of a limit on the amount of computation time that can be devoted to each search. Also included are heuristic decision rules which backtrack in an attempt to locate an improved solution, and decision rules which probabilistically search for improved solutions. Our investigation differs from those reported previously, in that the objective in balancing each line is to determine the minimum number of work stations for a given limit on the time available for assembly at each work station (the cycle time). Previous approaches have investigated the problem of determining the minimum cycle time for a given line length. We also compare the results obtained with the optimal solution for a subset of the problems investigated. Both problems which have appeared in the open literature and problems which have been solved for the first time are included. Because a portion of our results differ from those reported previously, we suggest why these differences have occurred. Guidelines are also given to those balancing industrial assembly lines on the choice of the heuristic decision rule to use whether one is attempting to obtain a minimum station balance given a limit on the time available for assembly at each work station, or whether one is attempting to minimize the time devoted to assembly at a work station given a limit on the number of work stations available.
Scheduling with Multiple Performance Measures: The One-Machine Case
Authors: Nelson Rosser T. , Sarin Rakesh K. , Daniels Richard L.
Published: November 2008

Most scheduling research has considered optimizing a single performance measure (criterion). In this paper we consider the problem of scheduling jobs on a single machine when the desirability of a schedule is evaluated using more than one performance measure. The procedures developed here can be used to construct trade-off curves among selected performance measures. The importance of the trade-off curve is that it provides the complete set of possibly optimal solutions for any objective function (cost function) involving only the selected performance measures. With this information, a manager can concentrate on selecting the most preferred schedule from the set.

Algorithms are presented for the three two-criteria problems utilizing mean flow time, maximum tardiness, and number of tardy jobs and the three-criteria problem involving all of these criteria. Computational results for the four algorithms are provided. The most striking result is that the number of efficient solutions is very small in comparison to the number of permutation schedules for all three two-criteria problems and only modestly larger for the three-criteria problem. This has the managerial significance that, irrespective of the individual manager's specific trade-offs between the criteria, the number of possibly optimal schedules that need to be considered is relatively small.

Several research directions on heuristic approaches, man-machine interactive approaches, computational efficiency, etc. are possible for the type of problem studied. The work reported here has the potential to stimulate research incorporating multiple performance measures in more complex scheduling models.
Inertia, Environments, and Strategic Choice: A Quasi-Experimental Design for Comparative-Longitudinal Research
Authors: Romanelli Elaine , Tushman Michael L.
Published: November 2008

This paper develops a research design for examining the relative influence of managers and environments on organizational activity over time. We outline three basic models of organization evolution: (1) an inertial model, which emphasizes constraints on evolution imposed by early patterns of exchange; (2) an external control model, which posits change in organizational activities that is guided by changes in environmental conditions over time; and (3) a strategic management model, which emphasizes the role of senior executives in choosing patterns and domains of competitive activity.

Using the general logic of experimental design, we outline methods for comparing longitudinal patterns in change and persistence that will distinguish between these alternative perspectives. Specifically, we describe procedures for operationalizing two basic parameters of research design: (1) the organization population cohort, which imposes systematic restrictions on sampling; and (2) a generalized version of the product class life cycle, which helps isolate changes in environmental conditions for comparing organizational activity patterns over time. Data from an ongoing study of firms in the minicomputer product class are presented to illustrate these concepts.
Multiattribute Bayesian Acceptance Sampling Plans Under Nondestructive Inspection
Authors: Tang Kwei , Plante Robert , Moskowitz Herbert
Published: November 2008

A methodology for determining optimal sampling plans for Bayesian multiattribute acceptance sampling models is developed. Inspections are assumed to be nondestructive and attributes are classified as scrappable or screenable according to the corrective action required when a lot is rejected on a given attribute. The effects of interactions among attributes on the resulting optimal sampling plan are examined and show that: (1) sampling plans for screenable attributes can be obtained by solving a set of independent single attribute models, (2) interactions of scrappable attributes on screenable attributes and conversely result in smaller sample sizes for screenable attributes than in single attribute plans, and (3) interactions among scrappable attributes result in either smaller sample sizes, lower acceptance probabilities or both, relative to single attribute plans. An iterative subproblem algorithm is developed, which is effective in finding near optimal multiattribute sampling plans having a large number of attributes.