bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Why Low Inequality Spurs Growth: Savings and Investment by the Poor
Authors: Pinckney Thomas C. , Sabot Richard H. , Birdsall Nancy
Published: March 2024

This paper discusses the ways in which macroeconomic developments can put stress on banks, and in extreme cases lead to banking crises. There are many ways in which this can occur, and no specific mechanism is endorsed. These macroeconomic causes of bank vulnerability and crisis have important implications for regulatory regimes, and for macroeconomic policy itself. Much of the discussion emphasizes the need to set monetary policy with an eye on the state of the domestic banking system.
Credit Union Policies and Performances in Latin America
Authors: Westley Glenn D. , Shaffer Sherrill
Published: March 2024

This paper presents a conceptual framework for explaining Credit Unions (CUs) loan delinquency and profitability in developing countries. It also offers an empirical estimation for a unique sample of CUs in Latin America.
Regional Financial Market Integration: Learning from the European Experience
Authors: Steil Benn
Published: March 2024

The so-called "European model" of market integration has evolved over many decades. In particular, the original plan to integrate Europe economically via a progressive program of harmonizing national legislation has, particularly in the area of financial markets, given way to a radical alternative based upon Member State "mutual recognition" of existing national legislation and regulation. Whereas this shift had been initiated largely on pragmatic grounds, the mutual recognition approach has since taken on an ideological and strategic dimension in political negotiations which makes the study of its effects on the ground all the more important.
An Economic Analysis of Unemployment in Trinidad and Tobago
Authors: Downes Andrew S.
Published: March 2024

Unemployment is regarded as one of the most challenging economic problems facing the governments of the Caribbean. Although there are variations in the measurement of unemployment, official estimates obtained from labor force surveys indicate that in 1995 the unemployment rate ranged from 7.8 percent in Antigua/Barbuda to 19.7 percent in Barbados. This paper explores unemployment in Trinidad and Tobago.
What Makes Reforms Likely?: Timing and Sequencing of Structural Reforms in Latin America
Authors: Lora Eduardo
Published: March 2024

The wave of structural reforms in Latin America and elsewhere has stimulated the development of a wide body of theoretical literature on the political economy of reform, i.e., the study of the political constraints that condition the timing, speed and sequencing of reforms. This paper tests some of the hypotheses associated with these theoretical models, using a set of structural reform indicators for approximately twenty Latin American countries for the period 1985-1995. Although there is strong support for some hypotheses, recent reforms in Latin America cannot be adequately explained without either better theories or better data.
Electoral Budget Cycles in Latin America and the Caribbean: Incidence, Causes, and Political Futility
Authors: Kraemer Moritz
Published: March 2024

This paper examines the effect of elections on fiscal policies in 21 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean from 1983 to 1996. The budget surplus proves to be lower than normal in the preelectoral and higher in the postelectoral years. Both the expenditure and revenue sides contribute to this cyclicality.
Nature, Development, and Distribution in Latin America: Evidence on the Role of Geography, Climate, and Natural Resources
Authors: Hausmann Ricardo , Gavin Michael
Published: March 2024

Latin America's enormous endowment of natural resources impacts many countries of the region. Economic liberalization in several countries was followed by rapid growth of foreign investment and exports of natural resource-intensive products. Growth of labor-intensive manufacturing industries was much more modest. What does increased reliance upon natural resource-based industries mean for development prospects, and for the distribution of income.
Social Services Viewed Through New Lenses: Agency Problems in Education and Health in Latin America
Authors: Savedoff William D.
Published: March 2024

Latin America spends large amounts of resources on social services, yet its life expectancy and education levels are low compared to other regions with similar levels of income. A key reason is the inherent difficulty of making social services produce efficiently in response to demands and needs. This working paper shows how improving the organization of these service systems can make a significant difference in health conditions and student learning. A general framework applying the lessons of theories of the firm to the particularities of social services is developed, followed by a summary of case studies which assess the impact of organization on performance in education and in health. The paper shows that the relationships and rules followed by governments, service providers, and consumers can mean the difference between success and failure. It also describes a wealth of approaches that point toward better ways of organizing social services and ultimately improving health and education in the region.
Poverty in Latin America and the Caribbean: An Inventory: 1980-95
Authors: Mejía-Guerra José Antonio , Vos Rob
Published: March 2024

In this paper we will not intend to derive improved poverty measures for the Americas. Our pretensions are much more modest. The purposes of the paper are to provide an inventory of available poverty estimates for the countries of the region derived from a variety of studies and data sources (albeit mainly household surveys), to establish the degree of comparability of these estimates over time and across countries and to systematize the differences in conceptualization and methods of measurement explaining why poverty estimates may diverge so much. This should also help to put into perspective the poverty estimates for the region as included in the IDB's Economic and Social Data Base (ESDB) and other sources compiling such data. In this effort, we limit ourselves to the "income approach" to poverty, that is the definition and measurement of poverty in terms of a lack of resources required to purchase a minimum bundle of essential goods. As explained in Part 1 of this paper, this is only one possible approach to poverty measurement, albeit perhaps the most commonly used one and also the one central to the Bank's criteria to determine which of its operations qualify as "poverty targeted".
Structural Adjustment and Poverty in Bolivia
Authors: Mejía-Guerra José Antonio , Lee Haeduck , Vos Rob
Published: March 2024

This document was prepared in the context of the Program for the "Improvement of Surveys and the Measurement of Living Conditions in Latin America and the Caribbean" (ISLC/MECOVI). Bolivia ranks among Latin America's so-called "early adjusters". While Bolivia's economic reforms, which began in 1985, have clearly brought economic stability and some structural change, they have failed so far to bring a major boost to the economy and export production. Using household survey data, this paper analyzes how and to what extent Bolivia's economic reforms, which began in 1985, have made an impact on living conditions of the Bolivian population between 1985 and 1995.
A Decade of Reform in Latin America: Has it Delivered Lower Volatility?
Authors: Gavin Michael
Published: March 2024

Have the economies of Latin America become less volatile as a result of the economic stabilization and structural reforms implemented during the past decade? The answer is a qualified yes. The reforms have helped, but more needs to be done to ensure the macroeconomic stability required for accelerated and more equitable long-run growth in the region. Structural reforms have helped reduce volatility, but volatility remains high by international standards and has not declined in all countries. The paper offers a policy agenda, raising questions for discussion in four key areas: (i) How can fiscal management be made more stabilizing? (ii) How can management of domestic financial markets contribute to lower economic volatility? (iii) How should capital flows be managed? (iv) What is the role of the exchange rate regime?
Exchange-Rate-Based Stabilization with Endogenous Fiscal Response
Authors: Talvi Ernesto
Published: March 2024

In the context of a perfect foresight, intertemporal optimizing, cash-in-advance model, this paper studies the dynamics of an inconsistent exchange rate-based stabilization policy that fixes the exchange rate without an underlying fiscal adjustment to ensure that the exchange rate policy is sustainable in the long run. The perception that the exchange rate policy is temporary leads to an initial expansion in consumption, and, since the model allows for distortionary taxes on consumption, to an endogenous increase in tax revenues large enough to eliminate the ex-ante fiscal deficit. This paper was prepared for the 8th NBER Inter-American Seminar, held in Bogotá, Colombia in November 1995.
Inflows of Capital to Developing Countries in the 1990s: Causes and Effects
Authors: Leiderman Leonardo , Reinhart Carmen M. , Calvo Guillermo A.
Published: March 2024

This paper discusses the changing pattern of capital flows to developing countries. The analysis is heavily colored by recent events. It concentrates on the principal facts, developments, and policies that characterize the current episode of capital inflows to Asia and Latin America.
Government Policies Affecting Forests in Latin America: An Agenda for Discussion
Authors: Laarman Jan G.
Published: March 2024

This paper identifies policy issues that affect the extent, distribution, and condition of forests in Latin America. Forest management policies are only one element in the framework; policies related to agricultural development and land tenure can have potentially negative consequences for forests. Mineral exploration, hydroelectric reservoirs, highway projects, and urban expansion also have impacts on forest conversion. Finally, macroeconomic policies affect forests through their impact on investment, public spending, foreign trade, and other economic variables that have consequences for land use. Examples of the Bank's lending for forests as integrated with agricultural structural adjustment loans (AGSALs) in Honduras, Nicaragua, and Peru are presented.
Household Water Demand Estimation
Authors: Bacharach Miguel , Vaughan William J.
Published: March 2024

This working paper addresses the issues: 1) whether there is a simultaneous equations problem when estimating demand for water with multipart rate schedules and, if there is one, what techniques should be used to correct for it; and 2) whether average or marginal price is the relevant measure in estimating the demand function. In addition, the issue is raised of sample selection bias in a rate schedule, combined with a fixed charge for consumption below the level where a block rate tariff per unit consumed. This study uses results from a sample of 685 families from 34 localities in rural Argentina (taken in 1987) and presents an analysis of the results with different estimation techniques.
Central Bank Liquidity Management and "Unconventional" Monetary Policies
Authors: García-Cicco Javier , Kawamura Enrique
Published: March 2024

This paper presents a small open economy model to analyze the role of central bank liquidity management in implementing "unconventional" monetary policies within an inflation targeting framework. In particular, the paper explicitly models the facilities that the central bank uses to manage liquidity in the economy, which creates a role for the central bank balance sheet in equilibrium. This permits the analysis of two "unconventional" policies: sterilized exchange-rate interventions and expanding the list of eligible collaterals accepted at the liquidity facilities operated by the central bank. These policies have been recently implemented by several central banks: the former as a way to counteract persistent appreciations in the domestic currency, and the latter as a response to the recent global financial crisis in 2008. As a case study, the paper provides a detailed account of the Chilean experience with these alternative tools, as well as a quantitative evaluation of the effects of some of these policies.
Inflation Targeting in Colombia, 2002-2012
Authors: Hamann Franz , Hofstetter Marc , Urrutia Miguel
Published: March 2024

After decades using monetary aggregates as the main instrument of monetary policy and having different varieties of crawling peg exchange rate regimes, Colombia adopted a full-fledged inflation-targeting (IT) regime in 1999, with inflation as the nominal anchor, a floating exchange rate, and the short-term interest rate as the main instrument. This paper examines the experience of the Colombian Central Bank over the last decade, a period of consolidation and innovation of its IT strategy. The paper studies the increasing number of instruments used by the CB, including systematic foreign exchange interventions, announcements, and, sporadically, macro-prudential policies, capital controls, and changes in reserve requirements, among others. The study also examines some political economy dimensions that help explain the behavior of the CB during this period. To guide the discussion, a small-scale open-economy policy model is estimated.
Public-Private Collaboration on Productive Development in Uruguay
Authors: Rius Andrés , Bianchi Carlos , Pittaluga Lucía , González Macarena
Published: March 2024

The public-private collaboration (PPC) for productive development policies (PDPs) implemented in Uruguay in recent years have provided fertile ground for research. Many have achieved results that can be analyzed within the scope of their respective histories and institutional settings. The study inquires about what PPCs maximize the benefits of PDP results and minimizes rent-seeking behavior or the capture of government. In other words, it wants to disentangle how did the PPCs selected balanced these two apparently conflicting goals. The results show that some PPCs managed these matters better than others did. A history of private-public collaboration at the sectoral level was a key factor in understanding the different results. The imposition of foreign regulations to export-intensive sectors is another factor that reduces the imbalance. Additionally, the PPCs' degree of sophistication and the lower risk of one-sidedness depend on the capacities of public and private actors. Finally, the study found that the PPC design that most likely has better results has to be consistent with the kind of good, that is, the public, club, or private good, the PDP is providing.
Public-Private Collaboration on Productive Development Policies in Colombia
Authors: Perry Guillermo , Eslava Marcela , Meléndez Arjona Marcela
Published: March 2024

This Working Paper analyzes the institutions that shape public-private collaboration for the design and implementation of productive development policies in Colombia. These policies are increasingly designed in the context of formal institutions and venues, with public-private collaboration being a pillar of that formal design. This paper focuses on two specific case studies: the Private Council for Competitiveness and its role in the National Competitiveness System and the Productive Transformation Program. Both suggest that public-private collaboration has contributed to the continuity of productive development policies across the country. Public-private collaboration has also played a significant part in achievements such as overcoming specific government failures and developing private organizational capabilities. Thus, a central message of this paper is that formal institutions have an important potential to advance adequate productive development policies.
The Latin American Middle Class: Fragile After All?
Authors: Castellani Francesca , Parent Gwenn , Zenteno Jannet
Published: March 2024

This paper joins in the debate on the size of the middle class in Latin America, providing an analysis of its structure and characteristics. Using several measurements, it finds that 40-60 percent of Latin American households are middle class, a share which has consolidated over the past decade. The analysis reveals that gender, age, and education are associated with the likelihood of being middle class. The example of Colombia illustrates that, while growing in size, this income group still faces deficits in crucial dimensions of well-being, such as education, job formality, and health care, which are generally associated with being middle class. The analysis reveals the fragility of this emerging group in the region.
Do Education and Health Conditions Matter in a Large Cash Transfer? Evidence from a Honduran Experiment
Authors: Benedetti Fiorella , Ibarrarán Pablo , McEwan Patrick J.
Published: March 2024

The paper analyzes a new Honduran conditional cash transfer experiment (Bono 10,000) in which 150 poor villages (of 300) were treated. The transfers were much larger in size than an earlier experiment (Galiani & McEwan, 2013), but yielded smaller full-sample effects on school enrollment, child labor participation, and measures of health service use. One explanation is that Bono 10,000 did not apply conditions to children: only one child in eligible households was subject to the education condition, and young children and mothers were only subject to health conditions in the absence of older children. Consistent with this, we find a large effect on enrollment (and a nearly off-setting one on child labor) among only children, and smaller and insignificant effects on children in larger households. We only find significant effects on health service use among children and mothers in the absence of older children (despite a much smaller household transfer). The heterogeneity does not appear to be driven by correlated variables such as household size, child age, or poverty.
Labor Exclusion and the Erosion of Citizenship Responsibilities
Authors: Zarazaga Rodrigo , Ronconi Lucas
Published: March 2024

This paper shows that workers who do not receive legally mandated benefits due to employer noncompliance have a negative view not only of their employers, as has been documented, but also of the State. Those workers believe that the State did not protect their rights, and hence they feel fewer obligations to comply with their duties as citizens. Using a list experiment, as well as household data from nine Latin American countries, the paper shows that non-registered workers are less likely to obey the law, pay taxes and vote compared to registered workers.
Maternity and Labor Markets: Impact of Legislation in Colombia
Authors: Ramírez Bustamante Natalia , Tribin Uribe Ana Maria , Vargas Carmiña
Published: March 2024

This study seeks to determine the impact on female labor outcomes of the amendment to the Colombian labor law that extended maternity leave from 12 to 14 weeks (Law 1468 of July 2011). To identify this impact, labor market outcomes of two groups of women with different fertility rates are compared. The study finds evidence that as a result of the extension of the maternity leave period, women in the high-fertility age group experience an increase in inactivity rates, informality, and self-employment. The study points to the need for a redesign of maternity protection policy that would enable the economic and social costs of bearing children to be shared by both parents and that may generate social change regarding the importance of paternal care.
Tax Incentives and Job Creation in the Tourism Industry of Brazil
Authors: Corderi David , Garsous Grégoire , Velasco Mercedes
Published: March 2024

In recent decades, a significant number of developing countries have implemented fiscal incentives programs for the tourism industry as part of their regional development policies. The main objective of these programs is to increase local investment and employment, as tourism activities are labor intensive. Little evidence is available, however, to assess the effect of these policies on job creation. This paper analyzes a fiscal incentives program that the Brazilian federal government introduced in 2002 to develop the tourism industry in the undeveloped region of Northeast Brazil. It provides evidence that income tax credits had a significant positive effect on job creation. We find that local employment in the tourism industry was on average 34 percent higher in those municipalities that benefited from the program.
Cyclically Adjusted Provisions and Financial Stability
Authors: Agénor Pierre-Richard , Pereira da Silva Luiz A.
Published: March 2024

This paper studies the extent to which alternative loan loss provisioning regimes affect the procyclicality of the financial system and financial stability. It uses a DSGE model with financial frictions (namely, balance sheet and collateral effects, as well as economies of scope in banking) and a generic formulation of provisioning regimes. Numerical experiments with a parameterized version of the model show that cyclically adjusted (or, more commonly called, dynamic) provisioning can be highly effective in terms of mitigating procyclicality and financial instability, measured in terms of the volatility of the credit-output ratio and real house prices, in response to financial shocks. The optimal combination of simple cyclically adjusted provisioning and countercyclical reserve requirements rules is also studied. The simultaneous use of these instruments does not improve the ability of either one of them to mitigate financial instability, making them partial substitutes rather than complements.
Endogenous Border Times
Authors: Graziano Alejandro , Schaur Georg , Volpe Martincus Christian , Carballo Jerónimo
Published: March 2024

We examine transaction-level Peruvian import data to show that firms are subject to significant costs of port-of-entry delays. At the transaction level, we observe the time it takes a shipment to clear each step in the entry process. Our theory shows conditions under which observed entry times are endogenous. As a result, total entry delays potentially lead to biased policy conclusions and non-informative efficiency rankings of countries' entry procedures. We make three empirical contributions that help unbundle sources for time costs in trade and border effects. First, we provide evidence that at least part of the total port-entry-time is endogenous. Second, we identify the effect of entry delays on imports based on exogenous necessary entry processing. Third, we provide evidence that trade costs due to entry delays are heterogeneous across firm types. New and large importersare more elastic with respect to entry delays. This information allows researchers and policymakers to interpret aggregate port of entry delay data and their costs across different types of firms.
Incumbent Advantage, Voter Information and Vote Buying
Authors: Keefer Philip , Labonne Julien , Cruz Cesi
Published: March 2024

Results from a new experiment shed light on the effects of voter informationon vote buying and incumbent advantage. The treatment provided voters with information about a major spending program and the proposed allocations and promises of mayoral candidates just prior to municipal elections. It left voters more knowledgeable about candidates' proposed policies and increased the salience of spending, but did not affect vote shares and turnout. Treated voters were more likely to be targeted for vote buying. We develop a model of vote buying that accounts for these results. The information raised voter expectations regarding incumbent performance, especially in incumbent strongholds. Incumbents increased vote buying in response. Consistent with this explanation, both knowledge and vote buying impacts were higher in municipalities with dominant incumbents. Our findings show that, in a political environment where vote buying is the currency of electoral mobilization, incumbent efforts to increase voter welfare may take the form of greater vote buying.
The Impact of Coastal Infrastructure Improvements on Economic Growth: Evidence from Barbados
Authors: Cumberbatch Janice , Hinds Fabian , Corral Leonardo , Rogers Cassandra , Schling Maja , Zhou Naijun , Lemay Michele H.
Published: March 2024

This paper presents the first rigorous impact evaluation of a shoreline stabilization program in Barbados and attempts to assess whether shoreline stabilization investments indeed have beneficial effects on medium-term economic growth in Small Island Developing States through stimulating tourism demand and real estate development. The analysis relies on a carefully designed geographic information systems (GIS) dataset, which comprises extensive panel data from Barbados' touristic West and South Coasts on key infrastructure, beach characteristics, and real estate activity, as well as remotely-sensed luminosity data as a proxy of economic growth. The synthetic control method is employed to construct a counterfactual from a combination of all control beach sites and subsequently estimate program impact on per capita luminosity as a proxy for GDP p.c.. Results indicate that even in the first three years after treatment, economic effects are positive and indicate a strong positive trend. This suggests that shoreline stabilization works may not only help preserve fragile ecological conditions, but further lead to sustainable growth in the local economy.
The Origins and Dynamics of Export Superstars
Authors: Pierola Martha Denisse , Freund Caroline
Published: March 2024

This paper uses firm-level data on manufacturing trade from 40 developing countries to explore how the five largest exporters in a country contribute to export growth and diversification. The origins of these firms are also studied. The data show that the top five exporters account for on average one third of exports, over half of export growth, and almost all of export diversification over a five-year period. Controlling for country and industry fixed effects, the share of exports in the top five firms increases significantly as exports grow. Most top five exporters were already large five years ago or are new firms; it is extremely rare for these export superstars to emerge from the bottom half of the firm-size distribution. They are producers, not traders, and are primarily foreign owned.
An Econometric Analysis of Energy Revenue and Government Expenditure Shocks on Economic Growth in Trinidad and Tobago
Authors: Khadan Jeetendra
Published: March 2024

Energy revenues represent roughly 45 percent of Trinidad and Tobago's GDP and are highly volatile since they are correlated with the price of oil and gas. Hence, sharp changes in energy prices, whether temporary or sustained, can have important consequences for economic growth and overall macroeconomic performance. After the 2014 crash in oil prices, a key challenge that emerged for policymakers in hydrocarbon-exporting countries is how to manage fiscal retrenchment in an environment of subdued growth. Using structural vector autoregression, this article examines three questions related to this challenge by focusing on Trinidad and Tobago: (1) what is the asymmetric effect of energy revenue shocks on macroeconomic performance, (2) what is the asymmetric effect of energy revenue shocks on government expenditure (disaggregated by categories), and (3) what is the effect of government expenditure shocks (disaggregated by categories) on economic growth. The results suggest that although positive energy revenue shock increases growth almost immediately, it is not sustained. A negative energy revenue shock is found to have a greater adverse effect on primary expenditure than a positive shock and this largely occurs through a reduction in capital expenditure. Transfers and subsidies, and goods and services are the most sensitive components of current expenditure to positive energy shocks. With respect to the effect of expenditure on growth, transfers and subsidies significantly reduce growth in the short run, whereas other categories of expenditure are found to have a largely positive effect on growth. These findings suggest three important implications for policymakers: the first is to reduce and or reorient public expenditure away from transfers and subsidies and towards more growth-enhancing areas; the second is the need for clear fiscal rules, and to more effectively balance the role of fiscal policy as a growth stimulus while also performing other social functions; and thirdly, these results bring into sharp focus the effectiveness of the rules of the country's stabilization fund to manage windfall energy revenues.
Macroeconomic Fluctuations Under Natural Disaster Shocks in Central America and the Caribbean
Authors: Borda Patrice , Wright Allan
Published: March 2024

This paper examines the role of disaster shock in a one-sector, representative agent dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model (DSGE). First, it estimates a panel vector autoregresive (VAR) model for output, investment, trade balance, consumption, and country spread to capture the economic effects of output, country risk, and exogenous natural disaster shocks. The study determines the empirical dynamic responses of ten Caribbean countries and seven countries in Central America. Second, by taking into account rare events and trend shocks, this paper also provides a baseline framework of the dynamic interactions between the macroeconomic effects of rare events and financial friction for two specific countries: Barbados and Belize. Similar findings between empirical and general frameworks show that disaster shocks in Central America and the Caribbean have only a significative impact in the short-run regional business cycle. The findings show that Caribbean countries are better prepared for natural disaster shocks.
Glass Ceiling in Research: Evidence from a National Program in Uruguay
Authors: Bukstein Daniel , Gandelman Néstor
Published: March 2024

This paper presents evidence that female researchers have 7.1 percentage points lower probability of being accepted into the largest national research support program in Uruguay than male researchers. They also have lower research productivity than their male counterparts. Differences in observable characteristics explain 4.9 of the 7.1 percentage point gap. The gender gap is wider at the higher ranks of the program consistent with the existence of a glass ceiling. The results are robust to issues of bidirectionality (impact of research productivity on the probability of accessing the program and impact of the program on research productivity), joint determination and correlation of variables (e.g. having a Ph.D., publishing, and tutoring), and initial productivity effects (positive results at early stages may have long-term effects on career development). The paper presents three hypotheses for the gender gap (an original sin in the organization of the system, biases in the composition of evaluation committees, and differences in field of concentration) and finds some evidence for each. Glass ceilings are stronger in the fields where women are overrepresented among the applicants to the system: medical sciences, natural sciences, and humanities. Finally, it presents a counterfactual distribution of the program in the absence of discriminatory treatment of women and discusses the economic costs of the gender gap.
Inequality, Crime, and the Long-Run Legacy of Slavery
Authors: Vargas Juan F. , Buonanno Paolo
Published: March 2024

Estimating the effect of inequality on crime is challenging due to reversecausality and omitted variable bias. This paper addresses these concerns by exploiting the fact that, as suggested by recent scholarly research, the legacy of slavery is largely manifested in persistent levels of economic inequality. Municipality-level economic inequality in Colombia is instrumented with a census-based measure of the proportion of slaves before the abolition of slavery in the nineteenth century. It is found that inequality increases both property crime and violent crime. The estimates are robust to including traditional determinants of crime (like population density, proportion of young males, average education level, quality of law enforcement institutions, and overall economic activity), as well as geographic characteristics that may be correlated with both the slave economy and with crime, and current ethnic differences. Policies aiming at reducing structural crime should focus on reducing economic inequality.
Understanding the Drivers of Household Energy Spending: Micro Evidence for Latin America
Authors: Jimenez Mori Raul Alberto , Yépez-García Ariel
Published: March 2024

The paper investigates the determinants of household energy spending and energy budget shares, with a focus on understanding their non-linear relationship with income, and the presence of economies of scale. The analysis is based on a unique, harmonized collection of official household surveys from 13 Latin American countries. This dataset allows distinguishing between expenditures on electricity, domestic gas, and fuel for private transportation, providing a comprehensive distributional view of the energy spending profile of the residential sector. The estimated empirical Engel curves behave similarly; however, the derived income elasticities show marked distinctions by fuel, and their actual values depend on the households' relative position over the income distribution. For electricity, the elasticity tends to increase in income but stabilize at the wealthiest segments. For gas and transport fuel, it decreases under different income paths. In this dataset, the examination returns income elasticities on the (0,1) interval, suggesting that energy commodities are necessity goods. However, the distribution of aggregate energy expenditure needs to be considered. Specifically, there is a great concentration among the richer groups, particularly for transport fuels, where the top quintile gathers more than half of the aggregate spending. The results also indicate economies of scale -for electricity and domestic gas- with respect to family-age composition, and to a lesser extent with respect to dwelling size. In the case of electricity, these economies are more pronounced for richer households. These results join the previous literature in emphasizing the relevance of taking into account household demographic and socioeconomic trends for energy management.
Organización Industrial de la Prestación de Servicios Sociales
Authors: Aedo Cristían
Published: March 2024

El futuro de las reformas estructurales se encuentra en discusión en América Latina. Este documento tiene por objeto ofrecer una síntesis de los hechos y opiniones que están alimentando este debate. La primera sección muestra que aunque el proceso de reformas no se ha detenido, ha sido incompleto y muy heterogéneo, tanto entre países, como por áreas de reforma. Los mayores progresos se han dado en materia de reformas comerciales y financieras, mientras que los progresos en las áreas de reforma tributaria y privatizaciones han sido muy diversos entre unos países y otros, y en materia de legislación laboral se ha avanzado muy poco. La segunda sección analiza el estado de la opinión pública sobre las reformas. El desencanto con las reformas ha sido creciente, especialmente entre las clases medias, y está reflejando no tanto la situación económica de los países, ni el grado de avance las reformas, sino el hecho de que las privatizaciones se han combinado con problemas de corrupción en algunos países. La tercera sección revisa la discusión sobre los efectos de las reformas. Su impacto sobre el crecimiento parece haber sido positivo, aunque temporal, pero los efectos laborales y distributivos han diferido por áreas de reforma y según diversas circunstancias de los países. En particular, la efectividad de las reformas ha dependido crucialmente de la calidad de las instituciones públicas. La cuarta sección resume las principales propuestas para ampliar o reorientar la agenda de reformas de la región. Un grupo de propuestas contempla expandir el Consenso de Washington con políticas más activas que atiendan la necesidad de mayor estabilidad económica, más inclusión social y una mejor distribución del ingreso. Otro grupo propende por una visión más amplia de la agenda de desarrollo y enfatiza las interacciones entre la sociedad civil, el sector privado y el gobierno. Finalmente, una visión más radical propone un nuevo orden institucional nacional e internacional que limitaría el papel de los mercados y pondría freno a las tendencias de globalización.
El capital de los pobres en Costa Rica: Acceso, utilización y rendimiento
Authors: Trejos Juan Diego , Montiel Nancy
Published: March 2024

Este trabajo incursiona en el análisis de los activos y recursos que disponen los pobres. Se revisa y actualiza la magnitud, evolución y perfil de las familias pobres con énfasis en las características que den elementos sobre la dotación y utilización rentable de los activos. Con una reducción modesta de la pobreza, los resultados sugieren que las familias con una mejor dotación, utilización o rentabilidad de sus activos son las que tienen mayores probabilidades de superar los umbrales de la pobreza.
Determinantes del "spread" en las tasas de interés bancarias en el Uruguay
Authors: Díaz Solsona Adolfo , Graziani Carlo
Published: March 2024

El propósito del presente trabajo es identificar y estudiar los principales determinantes de los spreads en las tasas de interés bancarias en el Uruguay. Después de una detallada caracterización del sistema financiero uruguayo se presentarán dos mediciones distintas para los spreads bancarios: primero, medidos como diferencias entre tasas activas y pasivas tomadas de las pizarras de los bancos y, segundo, deducidos de los balances de los bancos. A continuación se explicitarán los hechos estilizados más importantes respecto de los spreads bancarios. En seguida se presentarán algunos resultados econométricos primarios para intentar de captar los principales factores explicativos de los spreads. Finalmente se resumen los resultados más importantes y se formulan algunas conclusiones.
Transparencia y rendición de cuentas en los hospitales públicos de América Latina: El caso de Argentina
Authors: Schargrodsky Ernesto , Mera Jorge , Weinschelbaum Federico
Published: March 2024

Los 33 hospitales públicos del Gobierno de la Ciudad de Buenos Aires (GCBA) adquieren sus insumos en forma descentralizada. En septiembre de 1996, la Secretaría de Salud del GCBA implementó una política de monitoreo de precios de compra. En este trabajo utilizamos la base de datos generada por esta política para analizar dos cuestiones relacionadas. En primer lugar, estudiamos el efecto de la implementación de la política sobre los precios. Los resultados muestran que la política logró una reducción de precios, pero que el efecto transitorio fue mayor que el efecto permanente. En segundo lugar, analizamos el efecto de los salarios de eficiencia recibidos por los jefes de compras de cada hospital sobre los precios. Nuestra evidencia empírica no señala que mayores salarios de eficiencia induzcan menores precios de compra. También presentamos resultados de encuestas que muestran al ausentismo como la forma más grave de abuso de sus cargos por parte de médicos y enfermeros en los hospitales públicos.
Un análisis dinámico en la toma de decisiones de los hogares: El caso uruguayo
Authors: Miles Daniel , Vigorito Andrea , Bucheli Marisa
Published: March 2024

Uruguay ha asistido a una disminución de las tasas de fecundidad y a un aumento de la actividad femenina y de los niveles educativos de la población, al igual que la gran mayoría de los países en el correr del siglo. Este estudio aborda estos cambios desde la perspectiva de las decisiones de los hogares recurriendo a la construcción de pseudopaneles a partir de microdatos provenientes de las Encuestas Continuas de Hogares del período 1986-1997. El análisis indica que los cambios relacionados con la asignación del tiempo de las mujeres responden básicamente a variaciones de comportamiento entre las generaciones. En particular, en el contexto de retornos positivos a la educación y crecientes para las generaciones nuevas, la inversión en capital educativo se incentiva prolongando el período dedicado a estudiar. A su vez, estas decisiones se interrelacionan con el rezago en la edad del casamiento, así como la reducción del número de hijos y el aumento de la tasa de actividad de las mujeres casadas. Por último, estas evoluciones se acompañan del aumento del divorcio y la formación de hogares monoparentales. Con respecto a la inversión en capital humano de las generaciones recientes, el estudio encuentra que en los últimos años, las tasas de deserción en la enseñanza media dependen principalmente de la edad y del contexto del hogar. Así, no se detecta cambios de comportamiento recientes significativos relacionados a la cohorte con respecto a la conducta de los adolescentes. Sin embargo, un cambio generacional del comportamiento de los egresados de la enseñanza media da cuenta de una expansión de la asistencia a la enseñanza terciaria en el marco del un crecimiento de la rentabilidad de esta educación, en particular para los más jóvenes.
El mercado de crédito hipotecario de Perú
Authors: Calderón Seminario Carlos , Eyzaguirre Hugo
Published: March 2024

El presente estudio tiene como finalidad documentar la evolución del mercado de crédito hipotecario en Perú durante los últimos dos decenios y, sobre esta base, analizar y comprender los factores económicos-financieros e institucionales que han limitado o promovido su crecimiento durante este período. El documento está dividido en cinco secciones. En la primera, se describe la evolución del crédito hipotecario en los últimos dos decenios en el marco de la política económica y habitacional aplicada por los diferentes gobiernos durante este período. En la segunda, se describen los programas que actualmente ejecuta el Estado para el financiamiento de viviendas de interés social. En la tercera, se analiza la situación actual del mercado de crédito hipotecario. En la cuarta, se presenta un análisis del sistema actual de constitución y ejecución de garantías y el impacto que tiene el funcionamiento de éste en el desarrollo del mercado de crédito hipotecario. Finalmente, se presentan las conclusiones y recomendaciones de políticas orientadas a contribuir a la expansión y estabilidad de este mercado.
La crisis de financiamiento hipotecario en Colombia: causas y consecuencias
Authors: Badel Alejandro , Cárdenas Mauricio
Published: March 2024

Este trabajo presenta evidencia según la cual la crisis reciente del sector hipotecario en Colombia fue consecuencia del incremento en la relación entre el saldo de los créditos y el valor de las garantías (LTV o loan-to-value ratio) que aumentó la vulnerabilidad de los hogares al ciclo económico. El incremento del LTV fue ocasionado por el efecto conjunto del mayor endeudamiento de los hogares, las reglas de indexación de los saldos de los créditos hipotecarios vigentes hasta 1999 y la desvalorización de los inmuebles que se registró a partir de 1995. Por su parte, la dramática contracción en los desembolsos de nuevos créditos puso en marcha un fuerte ciclo recesivo tanto del sector de la construcción como de la economía en general, lo cual se tradujo en un mayor nivel de desempleo que deterioró aún más en la calidad de los créditos hipotecarios. El trabajo argumenta que la crisis se profundizó y prolongó por factores extraeconómicos, asociados a la fuerte inestabilidad jurídica que obstaculizó tanto la oferta como la demanda de crédito entre 1999 y 2001. Las conclusiones enfatizan la importancia de evitar las burbujas asociadas a fuertes entradas de capitales así como la necesidad de ajustar los avalúos inmobiliarios en función del ciclo económico para moderar el riesgo asumido por deudores y acreedores durante la fase expansionista.
La Reforma de las Instituciones Fiscales en América Latina
Authors: Lora Eduardo , Cárdenas Mauricio
Published: March 2024

Déficits fiscales que en promedio son apenas 1,4% del PIB, coeficientes de endeudamiento a la baja, cancelaciones anticipadas de las deudas con el Fondo Monetario Internacional y recompras masivas de los títulos Brady, que hace quince años fueron la última tabla de salvación para los gobiernos endeudados en exceso. Esto no parece América Latina, la región del mundo con la mayor tradición de inestabilidad macroeconómica y la historia más larga de incumplimientos de deuda pública. Sin embargo, estos son algunos de los eventos fiscales que están ocurriendo hacia comienzos de 2006, en un momento especialmente favorable para la región.
El Futuro de los Pactos Fiscales en América Latina
Authors: Lora Eduardo
Published: March 2024

El éxito de un pacto fiscal se mide por el grado en que incorpore a los diversos grupos sociales en las discusiones, el cumplimiento y la vigilancia de ciertos acuerdos sobre la forma como se financia el Estado y se utilizan los recursos públicos. Partiendo de los factores políticos que pueden explicar las estructuras fiscales de América Latina, este artículo muestra la necesidad de alcanzar pactos fiscales, discute los incentivos que influyen en su viabilidad y propone prioridades de política fiscal y de reforma institucional para mejorar sus posibilidades de éxito.
Tributación del Sector Transporte en Argentina
Authors: Rezk Ernesto
Published: March 2024

El objetivo general es examinar la carga tributaria efectiva sobre los servicios y las inversiones en infraestructura en los sectores de actividad del Transporte de Carga Terrestre (por camión) y Aéreo en la Argentina.
Tributación del Sector Transporte de Carga en Uruguay
Authors: Buonomo Pedro
Published: March 2024

El objetivo general de este estudio es determinar la carga tributaria efectiva que incide sobre el transporte de cargas, en particular para los modos transporte terrestre (camión) y transporte aéreo, en la República Oriental del Uruguay.
Negociaciones Comerciales y Sociedad Civil: El Proceso de Formulación de Políticas Comerciales a Nivel Nacional
Authors: Ostry Sylvia
Published: March 2024

Durante la última década, se ha generado una demanda crecientemente insistente y persistente por contar con mayor transparencia en la formulación de las políticas comerciales.
Análisis Comparativo de Sistemas de Monitoreo y Evaluación: El Caso de Nicaragua
Authors: Lacayo Carlos
Published: March 2024

Este documento fue comisionado por la Red de Reducción de la Pobreza y Protección Social del Diálogo Regional de Política para la VII Reunión Hemisférica celebrada los días 11 y 12 de noviembre de 2004. Nicaragua elaboró una propuesta de Política Nacional de Protección Social-PNPS (Gobierno de Nicaragua, 2003a) y su estrategia de operacionalización es conocida como OPNPS (Gobierno de Nicaragua, 2003b). El objetivo general de ésta política es "contribuir a la inclusión social de las personas, hogares y comunidades en condición de vulnerabilidad para que participen de forma sostenible, de los beneficios del desarrollo "(Gobierno de Nicaragua, 2003a). Se pretende: fortalecer el capital humano, económico, productivo y social de los grupos vulnerables a través de la generación de empleo y de un acceso oportuno, subsidiado y con calidad aceptable a un nivel mínimo de servicios públicos sociales para una vida digna; incrementar la eficiencia, eficacia y el manejo transparente de programas y acciones de protección social a través de una doble focalización de las inversiones según vulnerabilidad y dinamismo económico (alto, mediano, bajo) y área geográfica3, promoviendo un proceso de fortalecimiento de la familia (la mujer como pilar fundamental) y de descentralización con participación; conformar una red de programas flexibles que garantice la coordinación y articulación de la demanda local, así como la oferta sectorial y la complementariedad de acciones; y reducir el número de poblaciones afectadas por desastres naturales y crisis socioeconómicas y/o mitigar sus efectos.