FORECASTING THE DYNAMICS OF CURRENT LOGISTICS MATERIAL COSTS OF AGRICULTURE IN UKRAINE
Authors: POTAPOVA Nadiya 
Published: February 2020

The problems of forecasting current logistical material costs of agriculture of Ukraine are investigated. Accordingly, the effectiveness of logistics at enterprises of different ownership is defined by the synergistic components that result from the combination of processes of supply, production and marketing in a single chain of management. This process is reflected in changes in inventory characteristics, order maintenance, operating cycle duration, and more. Logistic approach in management is connected first of all with elements of optimization of total costs, the size of which influences the end result of activity of the enterprise.

The features of classification of logistics costs and their compliance with accounting are established, on the basis of which their place is formed when evaluating the efficiency of the logistics system. Logistics costs are an integral part of the total operating costs and can be allocated to the elements of logistics processes. The lack of a unified approach to the classification and components of logistics costs, as well as their role in assessing the effectiveness of logistics systems, necessitates research.

Cost management is a key issue in terms of enterprise performance. It is in this part that decision-making on cost formation, planning and forecasting for the near term, as well as control and monitoring functions is envisaged. One of the main components of current logistical expenditures of agricultural enterprises is the material cost, which substantiates the need for their forecasting when planning the logistic activity indicators. The concept of generating logistics costs is based on the concept of total costs, which highlights the relationship between individual types of costs and the possibility of their regrouping with respect to logistics operations, with the aim of obtaining a final reduction in costs throughout the logistics chain. The logistics chain is designed within the framework of the enterprise budgeting model with the allocation of cost centers in relation to the centers of logistic functions of the enterprise and the classifier of management logistics costs. Adjustments for deviations will occur through adjustments to management reporting. The consistency of logistical expenditures with the classification of accounting processes under the current legislation of Ukraine can be divided into capital and current logistics costs.

Trends in changes in current logistical material costs are investigated with the help of time trends both in the aggregate of agricultural enterprises and in the context of the activities of crop and animal husbandry. The estimation of changes in the trends of economic factors can be carried out on the basis of forecasting models obtained using the appropriate economic and mathematical methods using the least squares method. In accordance with the chosen methodology, on the basis of a retrospective series of data of current logistical material expenditures in the agriculture of Ukraine for the period 2008 - 2017, a general type of forecast equation corresponding to the exponential function was obtained. Based on the approximated exponential growth function of current logistical costs, a five-year forecast is determined. According to the calculations, the lower and upper bounds of the projected growth of logistical expenditures at the agricultural level with a confidence probability of 0.95 for the period 2008 - 2022 is from 0.17% to 0.21%. The results of the calculations of the estimated values ​​of current logistical material costs in crop production in Ukraine for 2008 - 2022 showed that the expected amount of current logistical material costs for the period 2018 - 2020 fluctuates in the range from 187130,0 to 427653,2 million UAH. The results of calculations of the estimated values ​​of current logistical material costs in animal husbandry of Ukraine for 2008 - 2022 confirmed that their expected size for the period 2018 - 2020 fluctuates from UAH 76132,0 to UAH 154786,5 million. The increase in current logistical material costs in Ukrainian agriculture is confirmed by the analysis of changes in the initial and last levels of dynamics. According to the calculations of the comparative characteristics of the growth rates of current logistical material expenditures in the agriculture of Ukraine, it was determined that the average growth amounted to UAH 20269.4 million. (121.3% growth). At the same time, fluctuations around the average expected level of expenditures amounted to 56.5%, which indicates a significant increased risk of incurred expenses. According to estimates, in the period from 2018 to 2022, fluctuations around the average expected level of expenditures will be 27.6%. The average increase will be UAH 79130.9 million.

The average growth of current logistical material expenditures in the crop production of Ukraine in the period from 2008 to 2017 amounted to UAH 12920.3 million. (120.9% growth). The fluctuations around the average expected level of expenditures were 57.1%. The average increase in current logistical material costs in animal husbandry in the period 2008 - 2017 amounted to UAH 7349.1 million. (121.9% growth). The fluctuations around the average expected level of expenditures were 57.5%.

The prediction model was estimated on the basis of hypothesis validation using the Student's t-test and Fisher's F-test. According to her, the hypotheses about the adequacy of the models constructed by t