bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Stord Orographic Precipitation Experiment (STOPEX): an overview of phase I
Authors: Reuder J. , Fagerlid G. O. , Barstad I. , Sandvik A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. STOPEX (Stord Orographic Precipitation Experiment) is a research project of the Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway, dedicated to the investigation of orographic effects on fine scale precipitation patterns by a combination of numerical modelling and tailored measurement campaigns. Between 24 September and 16 November 2005 the first field campaign STOPEX I has been performed at and around the island of Stord at the west coast of Norway, about 50 km south of Bergen. 12 rain gauges and 3 autonomous weather stations have been installed to measure the variability of precipitation and the corresponding meteorological conditions. This paper gives an overview of the projects motivation, a description of the campaign and a presentation of the precipitation measurements performed. In addition, the extreme precipitation event around 14 November with precipitation amounts up to 240 mm in less than 24 h, is described and briefly discussed. In this context preliminary results of corresponding MM5 simulations are presented, that indicate the problems as well as potential improvement strategies with respect to modelling of fine scale orographic precipitation.
Comparison of East Asian winter monsoon indices
Authors:   Gao Hui
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Four East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) indices are compared in this paper. In the research periods, all the indices show similar interannual and decadal-interdecadal variations, with predominant periods centering in 3–4 years, 6.5 years and 9–15 years, respectively. Besides, all the indices show remarkable weakening trends since the 1980s. The correlation coefficient of each two indices is positive with a significance level of 99%. Both the correlation analyses and the composites indicate that in stronger EAWM years, the Siberian high and the higher-level subtropical westerly jet are stronger, and the Aleutian low and the East Asia trough are deeper. This circulation pattern is favorable for much stronger northwesterly wind and lower air temperature in the subtropical regions of East Asia, while it is on the opposite in weaker EAWM years. Besides, EAWM can also exert a remarkable leading effect on the summer monsoon. After stronger (weaker) EAWM, less (more) summer precipitation is seen over the regions from the Yangtze River valley of China to southern Japan, while more (less) from South China Sea to the tropical western Pacific.
Downscaling heavy rainfall in the subtropics – a simple approach for dynamical nesting
Authors: Huebener H. , Born K. , Kerschgens M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The simulation of local scale precipitation with nested models often suffers from large errors in the boundary rows. Advection of precipitation into the model domain of the small scale model can lead to an overestimation of precipitation in the boundary grid cells of the nested model and a drying of the interior grid area. Consequently, the finer scale structure of rainfall events of the small scale model can not evolve. These errors result from three main sources: "dynamical", "scale", and "parameterization" problems. As a first step to reduce the "parameterization" boundary errors, we propose a nesting procedure where rainwater from the driving larger scale model is converted to cloud water in the smaller scale model. The nesting method is applied to a case study of heavy rainfall in semi-arid southern Morocco. The results show the elimination of erroneous excessive rainfall in the boundary rows and slightly enhanced rainfall in the interior of the nested model domain. Additionally, fine scale structures in the precipitation patterns develop. The excessive surface runoff is clearly diminished in comparison to the standard nesting procedure. The proposed approach enables scale consistent precipitation patterns resulting from model physics and grid-resolution of the smaller scale model for the complete model domain.
A rule-based modelling concept to simulate hydromorphological measures – a tool for the design of programmes of measures for the EU Water Framework Directive
Authors: Nacken H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Hydromorphological deficits are of real concern regarding the goals of the European Water Framework Directive to reach a good ecological status. The effects of measures that change the morphological structure of a river is hard to predict. Existing methods to simulate this process in a traditional numerical model can not be applied to whole river systems. Using a rule-based modelling concept to find feasible measures and predict the impact of those measures is a very promising solution.
Identifying and reducing model structure uncertainty based on analysis of parameter interaction
Authors: Wang Y. , Dietrich J. , Voss F. , Pahlow M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Multi-objective optimization algorithms are widely used for the calibration of conceptual hydrological models. Such algorithms yield a set of Pareto-optimal solutions, reflecting the model structure uncertainty. In this study, a multi-objective optimization strategy is suggested, which aims at reducing the model structure uncertainty by considering parameter interaction within Pareto-optimal solutions. The approach has been used to develop a nested setup of a rainfall-runoff model, which is integrated in a probabilistic meso-/macroscale flood forecasting system. The optimization strategy aided in determining the best combination of a lumped (computationally efficient in operational real time forecasting) and a semi-distributed parameterization of the hydrological model. First results are shown for two subbasins of the Mulde catchment in Germany. The different phenomena of parameter interaction were analysed in this case study to reduce the model structure uncertainties.
Fundamentals of the spatially distributed simulation of the water balance of forest sites in a low-range mountain area
Authors: Schwärzel K. , Häntzschel J. , Grünwald T. , Köstner B. , Bernhofer C. , Feger K.-H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. For a sustainable forest management, a site-specific knowledge on the water balance is a prerequisite. A simple and popular field method for assessing the water balance of forest sites is based on overlaying relief and soil information. Furthermore, climatic influence on the water balance is often restricted to longtime average values of precipitation and air temperature (whole year and/or growing season). However, the impacts of climate change and climatic extremes, as well as silvicultural changes, are inadequately considered. To overcome these short-comings, we integrated the 1D-SVAT model BROOK90 and a radiation model in a GIS to simulate the spatially distributed components of water balance of forest sites. In this paper, we present the model concept and show an approach to describe the influence of a complex terrain on parameters controlling the spatial distribution of energy and water fluxes.
Analysis of the suitability of the German soil texture classification for the regional scale application of physical based hydrological model
Authors: Bormann H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Regional scale hydrological simulations are mostly based on the use of standard data sets such as soil maps which are based on soil texture classification schemes. This paper analyses the suitability of the German soil texture classification for the application of a physically based soil-vegetation-atmosphere-transfer scheme. Theoretical soil columns are defined to be able to represent the entire soil texture triangle by a 1% grid of the three particle size classes: sand, clay and silt. These theoretical soil columns are characterized by a homogenous soil texture and consist of two layers of increasing bulk density and decreasing content of organic matter with depth. Soil hydraulic parameterisation is derived by applying a pedotransfer function. Continuous water balance calculations are carried out for a ten year period for all grid cells of the 1% grid. The results of the water balance calculations are compared to the simulation results of the centre of gravity of the respective soil texture class. Texture class specific mean deviations and root mean squared deviations are calculated from the differences between the 1% pixels and texture class representatives. The results reveal that the loam and silt texture classes show only small deviations from the centres of gravity. For a few sand texture classes and most of the clay texture classes deviations are considerably large. Assuming an equal distributed probability of occurrence of all realisations within a soil texture class, an uncertainty of more than 100 mm/a with respect to runoff and actual evapotranspiration is detected for four clay texture classes, two sand texture classes and one silt texture class. These results are confirmed by a sensitivity analysis investigating the model response for a grid cell compared to the neighboured grid cells. High sensitivities mainly appear for sandy and clayey soils while the sensitivity of the model for loam and silt soils is smaller. Resuming it can be stated that most of the texture classes of the German texture classification scheme are suitable for the application of a physically based model, on regional scale in particular. Clay texture classes can be expected to cause high simulation uncertainties.
Impacts of global change on water-related sectors and society in a trans-boundary central European river basin – Part 1: project framework and impacts on agriculture
Authors: Hattermann F. F. , Gömann H. , Conradt T. , Kaltofen M. , Kreins P. , Wechsung F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Central Europe, the focus region of this study, is a region in transition, climatically from maritime to continental and politically from formerly more planning-oriented to more market-oriented management regimes, and in terms of climate change from regions of increasing precipitation in the west and north of Europe to regions of decreasing precipitation in central and southern Europe. The Elbe basin, a trans-boundary catchment flowing from the Czech Republic through Germany into the North Sea, was selected to investigate the possible impacts of global change on crop yields and water resources in this region. For technical reasons, the paper has been split into two parts, the first showing the overall model concept, the model set-up for the agricultural sector, and first results linking eco-hydrological and agro-economic tools for the German part of the basin. The second part describes the model set-up for simulating water supply and demand linking eco-hydrological and water management tools for the entire basin including the Czech part.
Impacts of global change on water-related sectors and society in a trans-boundary central European river basin – Part 2: from eco-hydrology to water demand management
Authors: Conradt T. , Kaltofen M. , Hentschel M. , Hattermann F. F. , Wechsung F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This second part of the paper presents the details of the eco-hydrological model SWIM simulating the natural water supply and its coupling to WBalMo, a water management model. Based on the climate scenarios of the STAR model, SWIM simulates the natural water and matter fluxes for the entire Elbe River area. All relevant processes are modelled for hydrotopes and the resulting discharges are accumulated in subbasins. The output data are input for the water management model WBalMo and the quality models Moneris and QSim. WBalMo takes storage management, inputs and withdrawals into account and analyses how demands by industry, power plants and households will be met at changing natural supply conditions. Some of the first results shall be presented here.
The atmospheric conditions over Europe and the Mediterranean, favoring snow events in Athens, Greece
Authors: Houssos E. E. , Lolis C. J. , Bartzokas A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The 3-dimensional structure and the evolution of atmospheric circulation favoring snowfall in Athens are examined. The study refers to 61 snow events, which occurred during the period 1958–2001. For each one of the events, the patterns of MSL pressure, 850 hPa and 500 hPa air temperatures, 500 hPa geopotential height and 1000–500 hPa thickness are constructed for the European region, for the day before (D-1), the first day (D) and the day after the end of the event (END). A statistical methodology involving Factor Analysis and Cluster Analysis is applied to the above data sets and the 61 cases are finally classified into five clusters. These clusters are generally characterized by a north-easterly flow in the lower troposphere over the Athens area. This flow is associated with the presence of a low pressure system around Cyprus and an anticyclone over Europe. The position, the intensity and the trajectories of the surface and the upper air systems during D-1, D and END days are generally different among the five clusters.
Two case studies of severe storms in the Mediterranean using AMSU
Authors: Funatsu B. M. , Claud C. , Chaboureau J.-P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Mediterranean storms and their associated upper level features are diagnosed here using Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) observations. AMSU-A channel 8 is used to identify upper-level intrusions of stratospheric air, which are often present upstream of heavy precipitating areas, while a combination of AMSU-B channels 3 and 5 is chosen to discriminate moderate to heavily precipitating areas. This precipitation detection method provides results that are in good agreement with TRMM rainfall product and independent ground-based precipitation data. These tools allow us to follow the concomitant evolution of two severe rainfall events in the Mediterranean region and associated upper-level features.
The role of observation uncertainty in the calibration of hydrologic rainfall-runoff models
Authors: Ghizzoni T. , Giannoni F. , Roth G. , Rudari R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Hydrologic rainfall-runoff models are usually calibrated with reference to a limited number of recorded flood events, for which rainfall and runoff measurements are available. In this framework, model's parameters consistency depends on the number of both events and hydrograph points used for calibration, and on measurements reliability. Recently, to make users aware of application limits, major attention has been devoted to the estimation of uncertainty in hydrologic modelling. Here a simple numerical experiment is proposed, that allows the analysis of uncertainty in hydrologic rainfall-runoff modelling associated to both quantity and quality of available data. A distributed rainfall-runoff model based on geomorphologic concepts has been used. The experiment involves the analysis of an ensemble of model runs, and its overall set up holds if the model is to be applied in different catchments and climates, or even if a different hydrologic model is used. With reference to a set of 100 synthetic rainfall events characterized by a given rainfall volume, the effect of uncertainty in parameters calibration is studied. An artificial truth – perfect observation – is created by using the model in a known configuration. An external source of uncertainty is introduced by assuming realistic, i.e. uncertain, discharge observations to calibrate the model. The range of parameters' values able to "reproduce" the observation is studied. Finally, the model uncertainty is evaluated and discussed. The experiment gives useful indications about the number of both events and data points needed for a careful and stable calibration of a specific model, applied in a given climate and catchment. Moreover, an insight on the expected and maximum error in flood peak discharge simulations is given: errors ranging up to 40% are to be expected if parameters are calibrated on insufficient data sets.
Probability estimates of heavy precipitation events in a flood-prone central-European region with enhanced influence of Mediterranean cyclones
Authors: Kysely J. , Picek J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Due to synoptic-climatological reasons as well as a specific configuration of mountain ranges, the northeast part of the Czech Republic is an area with an enhanced influence of low-pressure systems of the Mediterranean origin. They are associated with an upper-level advection of warm and moist air and often lead to heavy precipitation events. Particularities of this area are evaluated using a regional frequency analysis. The northeast region is identified as a homogeneous one according to tests on statistical characteristics of precipitation extremes (annual maxima of 1- to 7-day amounts), and observed distributions follow a different model compared to the surrounding area. Noteworthy is the heavy tail of distributions of multi-day events, reflected also in inapplicability of the L-moment estimators for the general 4-parameter kappa distribution utilized in Monte Carlo simulations in regional homogeneity and goodness-of-fit tests. We overcome this issue by using the maximum likelihood estimation. The Generalized Logistic distribution is identified as the most suitable one for modelling annual maxima; advantages of the regional over local approach to the frequency analysis consist mainly in reduced uncertainty of the growth curves and design value estimates. The regional growth curves are used to derive probabilities of recurrence of recent heavy precipitation events associated with major floods in the Odra river basin.
Scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones
Authors: Romem M. , Ziv B. , Saaroni H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Mediterranean is one of the most cyclogenetic regions in the world. The cyclones are concentrated along its northern coasts and their tracks are oriented more or less west-east, with several secondary tracks connecting them to Europe and to North Africa. The aim of this study is to examine scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones, based on five selected winter seasons (October–March). We detected the cyclones subjectively using 6-hourly Sea-Level Pressure maps, based on the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis archive. HMSO (1962) has shown that most Mediterranean cyclones (58%) enter the Mediterranean from the Atlantic Ocean (through Biscay and Gibraltar), and from the south-west, the Sahara Desert, while the rest are formed in the Mediterranean Basin itself. Our study revealed that only 13% of the cyclones entered the Mediterranean, while 87% were generated in the Mediterranean Basin. The entering cyclones originate in three different regions: the Sahara Desert (6%), the Atlantic Ocean (4%), and Western Europe (3%). The cyclones formed within the Mediterranean Basin were found to generate under the influence of external cyclonic systems, i.e. as "daughter cyclones" to "parent cyclones" or troughs. These parent systems are located in three regions: Europe (61%), North Africa and the Red Sea (34.5%) and the Mediterranean Basin itself (4.5%). The study presents scenarios in the development of Mediterranean cyclones during the winter season, emphasizing the cyclogenesis under the influence of various external forcing. The large difference with respect to the findings of HMSO (1962) is partly explained by the dominance of spring cyclones generating in the Sahara Desert, especially in April and May that were not included in our study period.
Extreme precipitation related to circulation types for four case studies over the Eastern Mediterranean
Authors: Tolika K. , Anagnostopoulou Chr. , Maheras P. , Kutiel H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The analysis of the links between the extreme precipitation and the associated atmospheric conditions through an aloft circulation type approach at the 500-hPa geopotential level, for the time period of 1958–2000, is the main motivation for the present study. Four stations in the eastern Mediterranean (17.5° E to 37.5° E and 30° N to 40° N) were selected as separate case studies. The extreme precipitation conditions were defined by the two most widely used indices: the 90th and 95th percentiles. It was found that two cyclonic types (C – with its centre over the station and Cwsw – with its centre at the WSW of the station) were mainly associated with extreme rainfall conditions for all the selected stations. Generally, these circulation types are deepening during days with extreme precipitation in comparison to the general mean field of the type.
The EuroSprite2005 Observational Campaign: an example of training and outreach opportunities for CAL young scientists
Authors: Chanrion O. , Crosby N. B. , Arnone E. , Boberg F. , Van der Velde O. , Odzimek A. , Mika Á. , Enell C.-F. , Berg P. , Ignaccolo M. , Steiner R. J. , Laursen S. , Neubert T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The four year "Coupling of Atmospheric Layers (CAL)" EU FP5 Research Training Network project studied unanswered questions related to transient luminous events (sprites, jets and elves) in the upper atmosphere. Consisting of ten scientific work-packages CAL also included intensive training and outreach programmes for the young scientists hired. Educational activities were based on the following elements: national PhD programmes, activities at CAL and other meetings, a dedicated summer school, and two European sprite observational campaigns. The young scientists were strongly involved in the latter and, as an example, the "EuroSprite2005" observational campaign is presented in detail. Some of the young scientists participated in the instrument set-up, others in the campaign logistics, some coordinated the observations, and others gathered the results to build a catalogue. During the four-month duration of this campaign, all of them took turns in operating the system and making their own night observations. The ongoing campaign activities were constantly advertised and communicated via an Internet blog. In summary the campaign required all the CAL young scientists to embark on experimental work, to develop their organisational skills, and to enhance their ability to communicate their activities. The campaign was a unique opportunity to train and strengthen skills that will be an asset to their future careers and, overall, was most successful.
The 2004 Sumatra tsunami as recorded on the Atlantic coast of South America
Authors: Candella R. N. , Rabinovich A. B. , Thomson R. E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The 2004 Sumatra tsunami propagated throughout the World Ocean and was clearly recorded by tide gauges on the Atlantic coast of South America. A total of 17 tsunami records were found and subsequently examined for this region. Tsunami wave heights and arrival times are generally consistent with numerical modeling results. Maximum wave heights of more than 1.2 m were observed on the coasts of Uruguay and southeastern Brazil. Marked differences in tsunami height from pairs of closely located tide gauge sites on the coast of Argentina illustrate the importance that local topographic resonance effects can have on the observed wave response. Findings reveal that, outside the Indian Ocean, the highest waves were recorded in the South Atlantic and not in the Pacific as has been previously suggested.
Tsunami waveform analyses of the 2006 underthrust and 2007 outer-rise Kurile earthquakes
Authors: Tanioka Y. , Hasegawa Y. , Kuwayama T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The 2006 large interplate Kurile earthquake proved that the entire plate interface of the Kurile-Kamchatka subduction zone was strongly coupled from Hokkaido, Japan, to Kamchatka, Russia. The seismic moment of the 2006 Kurile earthquake estimated from ten tsunami waveforms is 3.1×1021 Nm (Mw=8.3). This estimate is consistent with the seismic moment estimated from the seismological data in the Global CMT catalog. The computed tsunami propagation indicates that scattering of the tsunami waves occurred at the shallow region near the Emperor Ridge. The computed tsunami propagation also indicates that large later tsunami waves observed at Crescent City is caused by the shallow region along the Mendocino Fracture Zone. The seismic moment of the 2007 outer-rise Kurile earthquake estimated from tsunami waveforms is 1.0×1021 Nm (Mw=8.0). This estimate is also consistent with the seismic moment in the Global CMT catalog.
Shallow shear-wave reflection seismics in the tsunami struck Krueng Aceh River Basin, Sumatra
Authors: Polom U. , Arsyad I. , Kümpel H.-J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. As part of the project "Management of Georisk" (MANGEONAD) of the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR), Hanover, high resolution shallow shear-wave reflection seismics was applied in the Indonesian province Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam, North Sumatra in cooperation with the Government of Indonesia, local counterparts, and the Leibniz Institute for Applied Geosciences, Hanover. The investigations were expected to support classification of earthquake site effects for the reconstruction of buildings and infrastructure as well as for groundwater exploration. The study focussed on the city of Banda Aceh and the surroundings of Aceh Besar. The shear-wave seismic surveys were done parallel to standard geoengineering investigations like cone penetrometer tests to support subsequent site specific statistical calibration. They were also partly supplemented by shallow p-wave seismics for the identification of (a) elastic subsurface parameters and (b) zones with abundance of groundwater. Evaluation of seismic site effects based on shallow reflection seismics has in fact been found to be a highly useful method in Aceh province. In particular, use of a vibratory seismic source was essential for successful application of shear-wave seismics in the city of Banda Aceh and in areas with compacted ground like on farm tracks in the surroundings, presenting mostly agricultural land use areas. We thus were able to explore the mechanical stiffness of the subsurface down to 100 m depth, occasionally even deeper, with remarkably high resolution. The results were transferred into geotechnical site classification in terms of the International Building Code (IBC, 2003). The seismic images give also insights into the history of the basin sedimentation processes of the Krueng Aceh River delta, which is relevant for the exploration of new areas for construction of safe foundations of buildings and for identification of fresh water aquifers in the tsunami flooded region.
Characterization of a rock avalanche deposit for risk assessment in the town of Celano (Fucino Basin, Central Italy)
Authors: Rinaldini A. , Marino A. , Ciucci M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper describes multidisciplinary investigations carried out in the urban centre of Celano, a small town located at the northern edge of the Fucino Basin (Central Italy). The town lies upon a wide debris body that was recognized in this study as a rock avalanche deposit estimated to date to the Holocene. Geomorphologic studies and geophysical investigations led to a detailed characterization of the landslide deposit and the surrounding units. The information obtained was used to assess the vulnerability of the Celano municipal area, by evaluating the stability of the landslide body and the behaviour of its lithologies under seismic loads.
On the historical account of disastrous landslides in Mexico: the challenge of risk management and disaster prevention
Authors: Alcántara-Ayala I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Landslides disasters in Mexico caused more than 3500 deaths between 1935 and 2006. Such disasters have been mainly associated to intense precipitation events derived from hurricanes, tropical storms and their interactions with cold fronts, although earthquake triggered landslides have also occurred to a lesser extent. The impact of landsliding in Mexico is basically determined by the geomorphic features of mountain ranges and dissected plateaus inhabited by vulnerable communities. The present contribution provides a comprehensive temporal assessment of historical landslide disasters in Mexico. Moreover, it aims at exploring the future directions of risk management and disaster prevention, in order to reduce the impact of landslides on populations as a result of climatic change, urban sprawl, land use change and social vulnerability.
Identifying unstable rock blocks by measuring micro-tremors and vibration on cliffs
Authors: Tanaka H. , Fujisawa K. , Asai K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. It is important to identify unstable rock blocks and take countermeasures to prevent sudden rock fall disasters. However, identifying such blocks visually is extremely difficult, so an identification method using peculiar features of unstable blocks must be developed. The method reported here uses a vibrometer, which is inexpensive and easy to operate. In order to assess the feasibility of the method, a field experiment was carried out on rock cliffs in three regions of Japan where unstable blocks are likely to exist. Vibrometers were set up on the cliffs to capture two types of vibration waves in three dimensions, i.e., micro-tremor and reactive vibration. The former type naturally exists all the time, while the latter is generated only by applying stimulation waves. At least one of the vibrometers was installed on stable baserock to compare the results with the wave patterns of unstable rock blocks. In addition to conventional items (amplitude, frequency spectrum, vibration particle trace), trace accumulation length, that is the accumulation of the trace length of a vibrating particle for ten seconds, was introduced to analyze the patterns for both types of wave. As a result, unstable rock blocks were found to generate higher amplitudes of vibration waves than stable rock blocks, and different patterns of frequency spectrum, direction of vibration particle trace, and trace accumulation length. Hence, vibrators were shown to be useful for identifying unstable rock blocks. In particular, by using trace accumulation length as an indicator, the stability of a block can be evaluated without generating stimulative waves, providing a direction for developing a cost-effective simple method for identifying unstable blocks in future.
Development of a ground displacement measurement method for failed slopes at the toes of landslides
Authors: Higuchi K. , Fujisawa K. , Tohei M. , Okawa S. , Shimomura H. , Sakata T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Sediments produced by a slope failure of the toe of a landslide are assumed to prevent the spread of the failure. Thus, sediment removal is an emergency measure that must be done safely while the slope is observed. Observation must also be done safely without requiring workers to enter the failed slope to avoid secondary disasters. Generally, a non-prism type totalstation is useful to measure ground displacement under such circumstances, because this type of totalstation can be used without placing targets on the slope. However, the lack of prisms results in problems related to the objectivity of measurement data, collimation error of the totalstation, measurement at night, and so on. The authors have developed targets and a remote target placing method in order to resolve the above problems. As a result, we have established remote measurement technique for ground displacement on failed slopes at the toes of landslides. This paper describes the measurement technique that has been developed.
Simultaneous monitoring of a collapsing landslide with video cameras
Authors: Fujisawa K. , Ohara J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Effective countermeasures and risk management to reduce landslide hazards require a full understanding of the processes of collapsing landslides. While the processes are generally estimated from the features of debris deposits after collapse, simultaneous monitoring during collapse provides more insights into the processes. Such monitoring, however, is usually very difficult, because it is rarely possible to predict when a collapse will occur. This study introduces a rare case in which a collapsing landslide (150 m in width and 135 m in height) was filmed with three video cameras in Higashi-Yokoyama, Gifu Prefecture, Japan. The cameras were set up in the front and on the right and left sides of the slide in May 2006, one month after a series of small slope failures in the toe and the formation of cracks on the head indicated that a collapse was imminent. The filmed images showed that the landslide collapse started from rock falls and slope failures occurring mainly around the margin, that is, the head, sides and toe. These rock falls and slope failures, which were individually counted on the screen, increased with time. Analyzing the images, five of the failures were estimated to have each produced more than 1000 m3 of debris, and the landslide collapsed with several surface failures accompanied by a toppling movement. The manner of the collapse suggested that the slip surface initially remained on the upper slope, and then extended down the slope as the excessive internal stress shifted downwards. Image analysis, together with field measurements using a ground-based laser scanner after the collapse, indicated that the landslide produced a total of 50 000 m3 of debris. As described above, simultaneous monitoring provides valuable information about landslide processes. Further development of monitoring techniques will help clarify landslide processes qualitatively as well as quantitatively.
Application of a regional approach for hazard mapping at an avalanche site in northern Italy
Authors: Bocchiola D. , Rosso R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The currently adopted approach to avalanche hazard mapping in northern Italy includes avalanche dynamic modelling, coupled with statistical analysis of snow depth at avalanche start. The 30-years and 300-years return period avalanches at a given site are modelled and their run out zone and pressure are evaluated. The snow depth in the avalanche release zone is assumed to coincide with the three days snow fall depth H72 featuring a return period of 30 years and 300 years, respectively. In the Italian alps only short series of observed snow depth are available, covering a period of 20 years or so, thus requiring a regional approach, or index value approach for the purpose of high return period quantile estimation. Based of former studies, here we apply the index value approach developed for the Lombardia region, in northern Italy, for hazard mapping in a particular avalanche site. A dynamic avalanche model is tuned using the runout data for two major observed avalanche events. Then, the 30-years and 300-years runout zone and dynamic pressure are calculated. It is then shown that the obtained hazard maps are more accurate than those obtained using the evaluation of H72 as deduced from distribution fitting in a single site.
El Niño – related precipitation variability in Perú
Authors: Lagos P. , Silva Y. , Nickl E. , Mosquera K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The relationship between monthly mean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the commonly used El Niño regions and precipitation for 44 stations in Perú is documented for 1950–2002. Linear lag correlation analysis is employed to establish the potential for statistical precipitation forecasts from SSTs. Useful monthly mean precipitation anomaly forecasts are possible for several locations and calendar months if SST anomalies in El Niño 1+2, Niño 3.4, and Niño 4 regions are available. Prediction of SST anomalies in El Niño regions is routinely available from Climate Prediction Center, NOAA, with reasonable skill in the El Niño 3.4 region, but the prediction in El Niño 1+2 region is less reliable. The feasibility of using predicted SST anomalies in the El Niño 3.4 region to predict SST anomalies in El Niño 1+2 region is discussed.
Relationships of surface air temperature anomalies over Europe to persistence of atmospheric circulation patterns conducive to heat waves
Authors: Kyselý J. , Huth R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Heat waves are among natural hazards with the most severe consequences for human society, including pronounced mortality impacts in mid-latitudes. Recent studies have hypothesized that the enhanced persistence of atmospheric circulation may affect surface climatic extremes, mainly the frequency and severity of heat waves. In this paper we examine relationships between the persistence of the Hess-Brezowsky circulation types conducive to summer heat waves and air temperature anomalies at stations over most of the European continent. We also evaluate differences between temperature anomalies during late and early stages of warm circulation types in all seasons. Results show that more persistent circulation patterns tend to enhance the severity of heat waves and support more pronounced temperature anomalies. Recent sharply rising trends in positive temperature extremes over Europe may be related to the greater persistence of the circulation types, and if similar changes towards enhanced persistence affect other mid-latitudinal regions, analogous consequences and implications for temperature extremes may be expected.
Hazards of volcanic lakes: analysis of Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, Ecuador
Authors: Gunkel G. , Beulker C. , Grupe B. , Viteri F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Volcanic lakes within calderas should be viewed as high-risk systems, and an intensive lake monitoring must be carried out to evaluate the hazard of potential limnic or phreatic-magmatic eruptions. In Ecuador, two caldera lakes – Lakes Quilotoa and Cuicocha, located in the high Andean region >3000 a.s.l. – have been the focus of these investigations. Both volcanoes are geologically young or historically active, and have formed large and deep calderas with lakes of 2 to 3 km in diameter, and 248 and 148 m in depth, respectively. In both lakes, visible gas emissions of CO2 occur, and an accumulation of CO2 in the deep water body must be taken into account. Investigations were carried out to evaluate the hazards of these volcanic lakes, and in Lake Cuicocha intensive monitoring was carried out for the evaluation of possible renewed volcanic activities. At Lake Quilotoa, a limnic eruption and diffuse CO2 degassing at the lake surface are to be expected, while at Lake Cuicocha, an increased risk of a phreatic-magmatic eruption exists.
On the vortical motions in the Black Sea obtained by the 3-D hydrothermodynamical numerical model
Authors: Demetrashvili D. I. , Kvaratskhelia D. U. , Gvelesiani A. I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Some results of simulation of the Black Sea circulation with consideration of forcing of different averaged wind types by using 3-D prognostic baroclinic model are presented. The results allow us to consider all depth of the sea basin consisting of some relatively homogeneous sub-layers. Within each of them general circulation processes practically do not change by depth, but essentially change from layer to layer. Such character of changeability interpreted by us as a steepness of the Black Sea general circulation takes place in majority cases of climatic atmospheric wind forcing. In the present paper results are analyzed on an example of forcing of January atmospheric cyclonic vortex with ~250 km diameter. Under such forcing the Ekman surface layer of ~12 m thickness is created. The cyclonic vortex formed in the east part of the Black Sea, which is Taylor-Proudman potential vortex with vertical cylindrical configuration, is described in detail. The vertical distribution of vortex characteristics are given in figures: Brunt-Väisälä frequency and Richardson number taken near the vortex wall with maximal velocity. The viable vortexes are characterized by introduced the universal Reynolds number Re•.
Using geophysics on a terminal moraine damming a glacial lake: the Flatbre debris flow case, Western Norway
Authors: Lecomte I. , Thollet I. , Juliussen H. , Hamran S.-E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A debris flow occurred on 8 May 2004, in Fjǽrland, Western Norway, due to a Glacial Lake Outburst Flood and a natural terminal moraine failure. The site was investigated in 2004 and 2005, using pre- and post-flow aerial photos, airborne laser scanning, and extensive field work investigations, resulting in a good understanding of the mechanics of the debris flow, with quantification of the entrainment and determination of the final volume involved. However, though the moraine had a clear weak point, with lower elevation and erosion due to overflowing in the melting season, the sudden rupture of the moraine still needs to be explained. As moraines often contain an ice core, a possible cause could be the melting of the ice, inducing a progressive weakening of the structure. Geophysical investigations were therefore carried out in September 2006, including seismic refraction, GPR and resistivity. All methods worked well, but none revealed the presence of ice, though the depth to bedrock was determined. On the contrary, the moraine appeared to be highly saturated in water, especially in one area, away from the actual breach and corresponding to observed water seepage at the foot of the moraine. To estimate future hazard, water circulation through the moraine should be monitored over time.
Evaluation of the CPTEC/AGCM wind forecasts during the hurricane Catarina occurrence
Authors: Santos A. F. , Mendonça A. M. , Bonatti J. P. , de Mattos J. G. Z. , Kubota P. Y. , Freitas S. R. , Silva Dias M. A. F. , Ramirez E. , Camayo R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In March 2004 occurred the first hurricane registered at South Atlantic Ocean. The system named Catarina begun as an extratropical cyclone and remained quasi-stationary some days over the South Atlantic Ocean. The system displaced westward, acquiring characteristics of a hurricane and hit the Brazilian State of Santa Catarina (SC) between the 27 and the 28 March, causing destruction and deaths. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the Center for Weather Prediction and Climate Studies, Atmospheric Global Circulation Model (CPTEC/AGCM) forecast performance of some synoptic patterns associated with Catarina. The surface wind and reduced Sea Level Pressure (SLP) were examined. Moreover, the implementation of 10-m wind forecast (V10m) was evaluated. This variable was not available in the CPTEC/AGCM during the Catarina occurrence and in this study it was compared with the wind at first sigma-level of the AGCM. The CPTEC-Eta reanalyses were used to comparisons. According to reanalyses, more intense winds were observed in northeast, south and southwest edges of the cyclone. The system was not predicted by the CPTEC/AGCM forecasts longer than 24 h, then the analyses were carried out only for 24 h forecasts. In general, the first sigma-level wind forecasts underestimated the wind magnitude and the cyclone intensity. However, the Catarina formation and its displacement southeastward between the 20 and the 21 March were well represented by the model. The CPTEC/AGCM presents deficiencies to predict the system intensity, but in short-range forecasts it was possible to predict the system formation and its atypical trajectory. The wind results from the new implementation did not exhibit better performance compared with the wind at first sigma-level. These results will be better investigated in the future.
The INGV tectonomagnetic network
Authors: Masci F. , Palangio P. , Di Persio M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Italian Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) tectonomagnetic network was installed in Central Italy since the middle of 1989 to investigate possible magnetic anomalies related to earthquakes. The network is part of the INGV L'Aquila Geomagnetic Observatory and is located in an area extending approximately in latitude range [41.6°–42.8°] N and longitude range [13.0°–14.3°] E. Actually the network consists of four stations where the total magnetic field intensity data are collected using proton precession magnetometers. New stations will be added to the network starting from the end of 2007. Here we are reporting the whole data set of the network's stations for the period 2004–2006. No significant anomaly in the local geomagnetic field correlated to the seismic activity has been found. Some considerations about misleading structures present in the data sets are reported.
Electromagnetic field measurements in ULF-ELF-VLF [0.001 Hz–100 KHz] bands
Authors: Palangio P. , Masci F. , Di Persio M. , Di Lorenzo C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We are reporting the technological and scientific objectives of the MEM project. The MEM project has been activated in the INGV Observatory of L'Aquila to create in Central Italy a network of observatories in order to monitoring the electromagnetic signals in the frequency band [0.001 Hz–100 kHz]. Some examples of the instrumentation developed in the frame of the project are reported. An innovative technique, based on the wide band interferometry is proposed to obtain detailed information concerning the several detected electromagnetic sources. Moreover, data from each station will be elaborated to investigate different sectors as the structure of ground electric conductibility, the electromagnetic phenomena connected with seismic activity, the separation of the electromagnetic fields originated in the Earth's interior and the electromagnetic phenomena originated in the magnetosphere, in the ionosphere and in the Earth-ionosphere cavity.
Seismotectonic setting at the North Anatolian Fault Zone after the 1999 Mw=7.4 Izmit earthquake based on high-resolution aftershock locations
Authors: Bohnhoff M. , Bulut F. , Görgün E. , Milkereit C. , Dresen G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The most recent devastating earthquakes that occurred along the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in northwestern Turkey were the 1999 Izmit (Mw=7.4) and Düzce (Mw=7.1) events. In this study we present a catalog of Izmit aftershock hypocenters that was deduced from a network covering the entire 140 km long rupture of the mainshock. 7348 events with a location accuracy better than 5 km are analysed. Aftershocks were observed along the entire ruptured segment along a 20 km wide band of activity. Events are clustered in distinct regions and dominantly occur at 5 to 15 km depth. The eastern termination of the Izmit rupture is characterized by a sharp and steeply dipping boundary exactly where the Düzce mainshock initiated 87 days after the Izmit event. Relocation of the events using double-difference technology results in 4696 high-resolution hypocenters that allow resolving the internal structure of the seismically active areas with a resolution of 300 m (horizontal) and 400m (vertical). Below the Akyazi Plain, representing a small pull-apart structure at a triple junction of the NAFZ, we identify planes of activity that can be correlated with nodal planes of EW extensional normal faulting aftershocks. Along the easternmost Karadere-Düzce segment we identify the down-dip extension of the Karadere fault that hosted about 1 m of right-lateral coseismic slip. At the easternmost rupture we correlate a cloud-type distribution of seismic activity with the largest aftershocks in this area, a subevent of the Izmit mainshock and the Düzce mainshock that all have an almost identical focal mechanism. This part of the NAFZ is interpreted as a classical example of a seismic barrier along the fault.