bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Study of interfacial seismoelectric signals in unsaturated pore media
Authors: Zeng Ling , Ren Hengxin , Hu Kaiyan , Zheng Xuzhen , Li Changcheng
Published: February 2023

The current theoretical study of the seismoelectric method is based on two sets of the governing equations, one is the electrokinetic coupling coefficient proposed by pride (1994) which is characterized by the zeta potential. The other is the electrokinetic coupling coefficient proposed by Revil & Linde (2006) which is based on the amount of excess charge in the pore volume. In this study, the Luco-Apsel-Chen generalized reflection and transmission method was used to solve the second set of seismoelectric governing equations and separate their interfacial response signals. The correctness of the algorithm is determined by comparing the consistency of the total interface signal with the superposition of the interface signals of each layer. The properties of the interface signals are investigated and it is found that different interface responses contribute differently to the overall signal and that the amplitude and phase of the interface signals are influenced by frequency and medium parameters.
Seiche-induced fish-kills in the Sea of Galilee may explain the biblical miraculous catch of fish
Authors: Strobach Ehud , Amitai Yael , Assouline Shmuel , Hamilton David , Nishri Aminadav , Zohary Tamar
Published: February 2023

On May 31, 2012, thousands of dead fish were found along the north-western shore of the Sea of Galilee. Analysis of fish gill tissue revealed no evidence of poisoning, and the fish looked healthy. This event adds to reports of similar fish kills at the same location, from the early 1990s, from May 2007, and a subsequent event on June 27, 2012, a month after the May 31 event. The common hypothesis for the massive kill suggests that a seiche induced by strong winds caused the upwelling of colder and anoxic hypolimnetic water along the western shores of the lake. Still, this hypothesis has not yet been tested.The WRF (The Weather Research and Forecasting) atmospheric model was recently coupled with the ocean model MITgcm (MIT general circulation model). The coupled model was named SKRIPS (Scripps–KAUST Regional Integrated Prediction System). The two SKRIPS model components (WRF and MITgcm) are well-tested at high resolution, allowing us to investigate the physical mechanism of the fish-kill event in an interactive system. To test the hypolimnetic water upwelling hypothesis for the massive fish-kill, we have set up and integrated the SKRIPS model for the May 31, 2012, event at a horizontal grid resolution of 400 m2, both for the atmospheric and lake component of the model.In this talk, I will present results from a high-resolution coupled atmosphere-lake regional simulation indicating an upwelling of cold anoxic hypolimnetic water into the surface during the event. The upwelling of cold water is increased close to the shore. The discussion will be supplemented by field data of temperature and oxygen concentrations, collected before, during, and after the fish-kill event. Our simulation results agree with the field observations, adding confidence to the anoxic hypolimnetic water upwelling hypothesis. Such fish-kill events may explain the biblical ‘miraculous catch of fish’ and the ‘miracle of the loaves and fish’. Also, it may provide a possible seasonal time frame (spring) for their occurrence in the past.
Geodetic evidence that earthquakes start with precursory slip
Authors: Bletery Quentin , Nocquet Jean-Mathieu
Published: February 2023

The existence of a potentially observable precursory phase of slip on the fault before large earthquakes has been debated for decades. Though observations preceding a handful of large events have been proposed as possible indicators of precursory slip, these observations do not directly precede the earthquakes, are not seen before most events and are commonly observed without being followed by earthquakes. Here we present a global analysis of geodetic measurements prior to large earthquakes, based on high-rate time series recorded before 78 large (Magnitude ≥ 7) seismic events. Our analysis highlights a 2 hour-long exponential signal consistent with acceleration of precursory slip on the fault. Our observation indicates that precursory phases of slip exist and that future improvements in measurement precision could allow to monitor them, making earthquake prediction potentially achievable.
The impact of tidal phasing on intertidal heat stresses
Authors: Robins Peter , Wilmes Sophie , Perks Emily , Gimenez Luis , Malham Shelagh
Published: February 2023

Sessile intertidal organisms are exposed to extreme variations in conditions during exposure (e.g., solar heating and desiccation) that can affect their health and development – and cause mass mortality events. Exposure is strongly dependent on the tides, which locally and regionally vary in magnitude, character, and phasing. Using the blue mussel Mytilus edulis as an example species, we hypothesise that organisms at locations that experience the lowest low tides during the middle of the day experience stronger heating than organisms at locations where the lowest tides occur during the early morning and early evening. In order to test this hypothesis, biomimetic loggers were calibrated to estimate mussel thermal characteristics and placed at two macro-tidal shores (North and South Wales, UK) dominated by semi-diurnal tides, which have a tidal phase difference of ~4 hours. At both locations, the highest temperatures were recorded when low tides occurred in the middle of the day; however, significantly higher temperatures were found for South Wales where spring low tides occur in the middle of the day and exposure durations are longer, whereas midday low tides in North Wales coincide with neap tides and shorter exposure durations. Our results suggest that heat stress for intertidal organisms may be more severe in intertidal areas where spring low tides occur in the middle of the day when solar radiation and air temperature are greatest. A global outlook will also be presented depicting potential high-risk zones for mussels and other sessile organisms. These results may be of importance for shoreline management and shellfish cultivation, especially with regards to future changing climate.
Multidecadal Variability in Mediterranean Sea Surface Temperature and Its Sources
Authors: Yan Xiaoqin , Tang Youmin
Published: February 2023

The multidecadal variability in Mediterranean Sea surface temperature (MSMV) exerts important climate impacts on both the Mediterranean region and remote areas at hemispheric scales and has long been identified in previous studies. However, its key region and source are still unclear. For the first time, we show that the key region of the MSMV is in the eastern Mediterranean, where the MSMV can persist throughout the year. The MSMV in the central and western Mediterranean occurs mainly in summer. Comparison of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) indices shows that the cumulative NAO index has a better consistency with the MSMV, suggesting that the MSMV most likely results from the cumulative effect of NAO atmospheric forcing on ocean circulation in the Mediterranean Sea. The stable lag relationship between the cumulative NAO index and the MSMV provides a natural indicator for the decadal prediction of the MSMV.
Climate services for finance, lessons learned and feedback for the public sector
Authors: Burke Claire , Woodhouse Sally , Leach Nick , Brennan James , Reveley Graham , Ramsamy Laura , Mitchell Hamish , Kluza Kamil
Published: February 2023

There has been a recent increase in demand for climate data and insights on the potential impacts of climate change. This is particularly true in the finance sector - in the past 18 months financial regulators in the UK, Europe, USA, Canada and elsewhere globally have all stipulated that large and listed firms are legally required to understand their climate risk and do something to mitigate that risk. The finance sector is not well placed to generate these climate risk insights, motivating the rise of multiple climate risk data providers.Climate X is a private-sector provider of climate risk analytics and services. Our in-house science team makes use of a wealth of publicly available data in the science that underpins the services we provide; data such as climate models and remote sensing data. We provide science as a service and deliver our data in a way that is useful and used within the finance sector.I will briefly outline how we use publicly available data to derive climate risk information that is relevant to the finance sector, and how we deliver that data in away that is meaningful to our end users. I will discuss why the data in its raw form doesn’t address sector requirements, and feedback from the sector on how publicly available climate and remote sensing data is used. I will summarise lessons learned from our engagement with finance on how the public sector could provide data which is tailored to end user needs, and is more immediately relevant and useful for adaptation action in this industry.
Effects of marine biology and air-mass trajectories on cloud brightness
Authors: Kovacs Eszter , Grosvenor Daniel , Carslaw Ken , Mulcahy Jane , Lachlan-Cope Thomas
Published: February 2023

The role of marine phytoplankton emissions in aerosol-cloud interactions is still a cause of large uncertainties in climate modelling. We investigate the effects of DMS and sea spray aerosol, which are both affected by marine phytoplankton, on the droplet concentrations of liquid clouds. To do this we examine MODIS satellite data for an area of liquid clouds in the Southern Ocean during the southern hemispheric summer. Backwards trajectories of air masses from the clouds were simulated with the FLEXPART Lagrangian particle dispersion model for a duration of 9 days.Clouds whose trajectories were not influenced by continental air masses could be split into two groups based on their trajectory history in the two days before encountering cloud: group 1 spent most of their time in the free troposphere, whereas group 2 spent their last two days within the boundary layer. Group 1 cloud droplet concentrations were positively correlated with exposure to sea surface chlorophyll that took place prior to them entering the free troposphere (i.e., at least 2 days before encountering their clouds), whereas droplet concentrations were negatively correlated with wind speed in the last day before encountering clouds. Group 2 clouds did not show the same correlations. Instead, wind speeds in the last two days before a cloud encounter were positively correlated with cloud droplet number concentration, with the relationship between the two having a steeper slope for higher chlorophyll values.These results give an insight into the factors controlling the changes in Southern Ocean cloud properties with associated climate impacts via cloud brightening effects.
Ion Temperature Anisotropy in Plasma Jets
Authors: Richard Louis , Khotyaintsev Yuri V. , Graham Daniel B. , Vaivads Andris , Gershman Daniel J. , Russell Christopher T.
Published: February 2023

Magnetotail magnetic reconnection results in fast plasma flows referred to as jets. Reconnection jets are populated with complex non-Maxwellian ion distributions providing a source of free energy for the micro-instabilities, which contribute to the ion heating in the reconnection region. We present a statistical analysis of the ion temperature anisotropy in magnetic reconnection jets using data from the Magnetospheric Multiscale spacecraft. Compared with the quiet plasma in which the jet propagates, we often find anisotropic and non-Maxwellian ion distributions in the plasma jets. We observe magnetic field fluctuations associated with unstable ion distributions, but the wave amplitude is not large enough to scatter ions during the observed lifetime of the jet. Our estimate of the phase-space diffusion due to chaotic and quasi-adiabatic ion motion in the current sheet shows that the diffusion is sufficiently fast to be the main process leading to isotropization.
Trade-off between C sequestration and GHGs fluxes in a long-term maize crop under contrasting management options
Authors: Lagomarsino Alessandra , Becagli Claudia , Casagli Alessandro , Rocchi Filippo , De Meo Isabella , Moretti Giorgio , Pastorelli Roberta
Published: February 2023

Monitoring of long-term responses of crop systems to contrasting management options is of key importance to assess the capacity of agriculture to mitigate climate changes, by increasing carbon sequestration and reducing green-house gases emissions. To this aim, long-term trials are fundamental since allow the evaluation of the trade-off between processes occurring at different time frames, such as C storage and CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions.
Within EJP SOIl – ∑OMMIT project a long-term trial established in 1994 was selected in a Mediterranean mountain area in Tuscany (Italy), comparing maize monoculture vs. rotation at contrasting tillage intensities (deep ploughing vs. disk harrowing).
Fluxes of CO2, CH4 and N2O, have been measured in 2021 growing season together with climate factors, inorganic N availability and microbial communities’ composition, and compared with C accumulated in the last 20 years.
The objectives of the monitoring were to assess the impact of cropping systems at low and high tillage intensities on i) the trade-offs between long-term C accumulation and GHGs emissions, and ii) the microbial community composition and activity. Moreover, the work aimed at improving the understanding of the main abiotic and biotic drivers of GHGs exchanges considering the plant-soil-atmosphere integrated system.
The stage of crop rotation had the highest impact on both C storage and GHGs fluxes, showing larger C exchanges and lower N2O emissions with leguminous than maize. Tillage intensities showed not significant changes in CO2 emissions and a slight increase with deep ploughing with respect to disk harrowing, which also experienced a larger C accumulation. All cropping systems, independent of tillage and rotation phase, acted as sinks for CH4.
The soil microbial communities resulted influenced by the different cropping systems. In particular, significant differences were highlighted in the abundance of microbial groups involved in denitrification and nitrification processes.
Oxidative potential modelling of PM10 : an indicator of aerosol health risk studied in France with the CHIMERE model
Authors: Vida Matthieu , Foret Gilles , Siour Guillaume , Weber Samuel , Favez Olivier , Jaffrezo Jean-Luc , Uzu Gaelle , Beekmann Matthias
Published: February 2023

Air pollution remains an outstanding issue due to its hazardous health and environmental impacts. For France, the number of premature deaths is estimated around 40,000 people per year mostly due to particulate matter (PM), while associated economical coast is estimated at 100 billion euros per year. In this context, action plans are implemented in order to reduce the PM mass concentrations in ambient air. However, considering mass concentration only can lead to an obvious bias: for instance, at equal mass concentrations, the exposure to fresh sea salts is assumed to have the same toxicity as soot particles containing toxic compounds. Therefore, accurate abatment measures need thorough knowledge on the PM chemical composition, which can then be used within receptor and/or chemical transport models to apportion their emission sources and secondary formation processes. The PM chemistry is also relevant in terms of adverse health effects. Based on the PM chemical species ability to generate oxidative stress through reactive oxygen species, the oxidative potential (OP) indicates the consumption of antioxidant per particles mass. This proxy estimates the imbalance between oxidants and antioxidants, responsible for inflammatory processes and chronic diseases. As a result, the aerosol’s oxidative potential has emerged as a promising indicator of PM adverse health impacts.To better evaluate PM health effects, we set-up a strategy to implement OP in the state-of-art air quality model CHIMERE and to simulate particles OP over the whole French territory for the year 2013 and 2014. To do so, a measurement derived and source specific OP determined by Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) receptor modelling approach is combined with particle sources apportionment in CHIMERE using a tagging method called Particulate Source Apportionment Technology (PSAT). Alternatively, a source specific OP is obtained by linear regression of observed OP and simulated sources. Both methods are used to simulate OP over France for the years 2013 and 2014, and to determine the most affected areas and responsible sources.
How Does the Evapotranspiration Over the Tibetan Plateau Affect the Precipitation in Itself and Low Reaches?
Authors: Tang Yingge , Dan Jingyu , Zhang Meng , Jiang Haojun , Gao Yanhong
Published: February 2023

Through land-atmosphere interaction, the Tibetan Plateau (TP) directly or indirectly affect the weather and climate globally, nevertheless the majority regions of China. To investigate the influence of the terrestrial evapotranspiration over the TP on precipitation over its own and downstream, the water vapor tracer (WAT) method coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) are used in this study. According to the landing location of precipitation, the termination of the evaporative moisture over the TP could be apart into inside or outside the TP. The process in the former was named as recycling precipitation and the other was named as moving-out precipitation. The recycling precipitation was found dominate the termination of the ET, which showed a decrease gradient from eastern to western TP. The moving-out precipitation mainly spreads to the east with a few to the south. Seasonal variations suggested that more recycling precipitation occurs in summer and winter, and more the moving-out precipitation occurs in spring and autumn. The trade-off between convection and advection results in different reaches of moving-out precipitation in two seasons: the strong convection and diabatic heating plus a relative weak large-scale advection result in short reaches outside the TP in summer, while relative weak convection and strong advection result in far-reaches in autumn. This study is beneficial for the understanding of the water cycle over the TP as well as the TP direct impacts mechanism on the precipitation in central and eastern China.
Solar total radiation input and terrestrial temperature in the two millennia of 600-2
Authors: Zharkova Valentina , Vasilieva Irina , Popova Elena
Published: February 2023

The  long-term millennial oscillations of the baseline  solar background magnetic field (SBMF) and the ephemeris of  the Sun-Earth distances are compared with the oscillations of solar irradiance at the terrestrial biomass (Hallstatt's cycle).    Based  the Sun-Earth distances derived from the current JPL ephemeris based on solar inertial motion and gravitational effects on the Sun by four large planets: Jupiter, Saturn, Neptune and Uranus we  demonstrate the S-E distance is reduced by 0.005 au in the millennium M1 600-1600 and 0.011 au in millennium M2 1600-2600. We show that variations of the Sun-Earth distances  are accountable for the increase of the solar irradiance by about $20-25$ $Wm^{-2}$ since 1700 that will continue to last until 2500. he decrease of the S-E distance per century in the current millennium follows the  rate of the terrestrial temperature increase reported since MM. We evaluate that this difference of the Sun-Earth distances caused by SIM  leads to the different magnitudes of solar irradiance deposited in the Northern and Southern hemispheres  in M2 with thee Northern hemisphere to obtain more radiation compared to the Southern one. These estimations show that in the next 600 years the Sun will continue moving towards the Earth  that will result in a further increase of solar irradiance and the baseline terrestrial temperature  in 2500-2600. These variations are expected to be over-imposed by a reduction of solar activity during two grand solar minima (GSMs) with a reduce terrestrial temperatures by 1C  to occur  in 2020-2053 and 2370-2415. 
GPU-accelerated numerical solution to the Richards Equation:performance and prospects
Authors: Li Zhi , Caviedes-Voullième Daniel , Özgen-Xian Ilhan
Published: February 2023

Catchment-scale hydrological simulations typically require numerical solutions to the Richards equation, which describes variably-saturated water flow in porous media. In recent years, with the widespread use of high-performance computing (HPC), the simulation speed of hydrological models have been significantly enhanced. However, existing numerical schemes for the Richards equation show different performance under different HPC configurations. It remains unclear if the serial Richards solvers scale well in parallel. In this work, four popular numerical schemes (the fully explicit scheme, the predictor-corrector scheme, the iterative Picard scheme, and the fully implicit Newton's scheme) are implemented to solve the three-dimensional Richards equation, aiming at investigating the performance of these schemes on both multi-core CPUs and GPUs. The codes are built under the Kokkos framework to achieve performance portability between CPU and GPU. Two infiltration problems with analytical solutions available are chosen to evaluate the model performance in terms of accuracy and efficiency. As expected, the simulation results indicate that the optimal solution schemes on CPU and GPU could be different. Moreover, the numerical scheme, the linear system solver, and the soil properties all have influence on scaling. A hybrid scheme is promising for minimizing the computational cost under various simulation conditions. The findings of this work will guide the development of the subsurface flow module of the performance-portable, multi-physics model, SERGHEI.
Variations of Summer Extreme and Total Precipitation over Southeast Asia andAssociated Atmospheric and Oceanic Features
Authors: Xu Lianlian
Published: February 2023

Southeast Asia lies at the heart of heavy precipitation on Earth, and a large amount of latent heat releasedhere provides substantial energy for the global atmospheric circulation. Utilizing gauge-based daily precipitation and theself-organizing map technique, the summertime extreme and total precipitation over Southeast Asia during 1979–2019 areclassified into three and five distinct patterns, respectively. The three extreme precipitation clusters are characterized bysouthern dry and northern wet (C1_extreme), overall wet (C2_extreme), and northern dry and southern wet (C3_extreme)structures. The frequencies of these patterns exhibit increasing trends during the analysis, although they are not statisticallysignificant for C1_extreme. The C1_extreme pattern is accompanied by an anomalous cyclone over the South China Sea inresponse to negative Indian Ocean sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). The C2_extreme and C3_extreme clustersare characterized by a westward extension of the western Pacific subtropical high, regulated by cool SSTAs over the tropicalcentral-eastern Pacific that are induced by the tropical North Atlantic warming and the tropical Pacific and AtlanticSSTAs, respectively. For total precipitation, the first and second clusters show overall dry distributions, which are mainlycomposed of nonextreme precipitation. The spatial patterns and atmospheric and oceanic features associated with theother three clusters of total precipitation bear large resemblances to those of C1_extreme, C2_extreme, and C3_extreme,respectively, but their trends exhibit smaller similarities. Comparing the differences between extreme and total precipitationover Southeast Asia could improve our understanding of their regional variabilities and relationships, and potentiallytheir global impacts.
Ocean response to Greenland melting in a hierarchy of model configurations: Relevance of eddies and an interactive atmosphere
Authors: Martin Torge , Biastoch Arne
Published: February 2023

Both Greenland Ice Sheet mass loss and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation weakening are considered tipping elements of the climate system under global warming. Ocean and climate models of varying complexity are widely applied to understand and project the future evolution of the two processes and their connection. The results are prone to model uncertainty however. Especially the role of regional mesoscale processes in the subpolar North Atlantic is still being investigated. We ran a systematic set of eight dedicated 60 to 100-year long model experiments with and without atmospheric coupling, with eddy processes parameterized and explicitly simulated, with regular and significantly enlarged Greenland runoff to reconcile findings of the regional ocean and global climate modeling communities.The most prominent result is a major impact by an interactive atmosphere for limiting the AMOC weakening through enabling a compensating temperature feedback. Coupled experiments yield an AMOC decline of <2Sv to a freshwater perturbation of 0.05Sv whereas the AMOC weakens by >4Sv in the ocean-only runs. In addition to this large-scale effect, we find that the Labrador Sea and the Northwest Corner (off Flemish Cap) are critical regions for the role of mesoscale eddies in redistributing Greenland meltwater and affecting the timing of its impact. We show that an ocean grid at 1/10˚–1/12˚, which is currently used in global high-resolution climate simulations, can already significantly improve the path of the meltwater along the North American coast and into the wider North Atlantic. But the same resolution still falls short in providing sufficient dynamical exchange between the boundary current and the interior Labrador Sea and especially lacks capability in restratifying the Labrador Sea after deep convection. Our experiments demonstrate where an eddy parameterization works quite successfully and where only high resolution (>1/12˚) yields a realistic ocean response. This underlines the necessity to advance scale-aware eddy parameterizations for next-generation climate models.
The response of soil in a semi-arid landscape with SE orientation after early prescribed burning.
Authors: Fajardo-Cantos Álvaro , Peña-Molina Esther , González-Romero Javier , Moya Daniel , Díaz Asunción , Botella Raúl , Lucas-Borja Manuel-Esteban , De las Heras Jorge Antonio
Published: February 2023

The current forest fire regimes are increasing due to high temperatures, global warming and frequency of wildfires in dry ecosystems like in the Mediterranean Basin. These issues are decreasing ecosystem’s resistance and resilience, worsening desertification, for this reason, it is of great importance to analyze the effects on the soil. However, it is now possible to apply some preventive tools to avoid wildfire effects or reduce their impacts on ecosystems. Fire is used as preventive tool, prescribed burning (PB) change both the fuel loads in forest ecosystems and vegetation strata. However, fire can produce changes in soil characteristics and physico-chemical parameters.The studied PB was carried out in spring 2021 (early burn) in SE Spain. The mainly vegetation is shrub (i.e., Macrochloa tenacissima (L.) Kunth, Cistus Clusii Dunal, Salvia rosmarinus (L.) Schleid) with poor dry soils formed mainly by cambisols. For improve the knowledge at short/medium-term PB effects on soil, this study attempted to analyze the ecological early PB effects on semi-arid land soils by CO2 flow soil respiration (SR) automatic chamber (CFLUX-1 Soil CO2 Flux System), minidisk infiltrometers for soil hydraulic conductivity (SHC) by infiltration rate and Water Drop Penetration Time (WDPT) methodology for measuring soil water repellency (SWR). It also analyzed soil physico-chemical properties. In addition, this study tries to generate a protocol or guide of good practices for PB. There were no significant differences in any studied variables after the 1-year period according to our formulated hypotheses. However, effects were observed on some parameters on the first days after the PB, such as SOM and nutrients.
Impact of global warming and Greenland ice sheet melting on malaria and Rift Valley Fever
Authors: Chemison Alizée , Defrance Dimitri , Ramstein Gilles , Caminade Cyril
Published: February 2023

Mosquitoes are climate-sensitive disease vectors. They need an aquatic environment for the development of their immature stages (egg-larva-nymph). The presence and maintenance of these egg-laying sites depends on rainfall. The development period of mosquitoes is reduced when temperature increases, up to a lethal threshold. Global warming will impact vector’s distribution and the diseases they transmit. The last deglaciation taught us that the melting of the ice sheet is highly non-linear and can include acceleration phases corresponding to sea level rise of more than 4 m per century. In addition, glacial instabilities such as iceberg break-ups (Heinrich events) had significant impacts on the North Atlantic Ocean circulation, causing major global climate changes. These melting processes and their feedbacks on climate are not considered in current climate models and their detailed impacts on health have not yet been studied.To simulate an accelerated partial melting of the Greenland ice sheet, a freshwater flux corresponding to a sea level rise of +1 and +3 m over a 50-year period is superimposed on the standard RCP8.5 radiative forcing scenario. These scenarios are then used as inputs for the IPSL-CM5A climate model to simulate global climate change for the 21st century. These simulations allow to explore the consequences of such melting on the distribution of two vector-borne diseases which affect the African continent: malaria and Rift Valley Fever (RVF).  Malaria is a parasitic disease that causes more than 200 million cases and more than 600,000 deaths annually worldwide. RVF causes deaths and high abortion rates in herds and poses health risks to humans through contact with infected blood. Former studies have already characterised the evolution of the global distribution of malaria according to standard RCPs. Using the same malaria mathematical models, we study the impact of an accelerated Greenland melting on simulated malaria transmission risk in Africa. Future malaria transmission risk decreases over the Sahel and increases over East African highlands. The decrease over the Sahel is stronger in our simulations with respect to the standard RCP8.5 scenario, while the increase over east Africa is more moderate. Malaria risk strongly increases over southern Africa due to a southern shift of the rain belt which is induced by Greenland ice sheet melting.,. For RVF, the disease model correctly simulates historical epidemics over Somalia, Kenya, Mauritania, Zambia and Senegal.  However, our results show the difficulty to validate continental scale models with available health data. It is essential to develop climate scenarios that consider climate tipping points. Assessing the impact of these tipping point scenarios and the associated uncertainties on critical sectors, such as public health, should be a future research priority. 
Modelling the Dynamics of Multiple Floating Vehicles Driven by Transient Flood Waves
Authors: Xiong Yan , Liang Qiuihua , Wang Gang
Published: February 2023

Many post-event field investigations of water-related hazards suggest that debris-enriched flow is much more destructive than water flow alone. However, the role of floating objects is rarely considered in the modelling or risk assessment approaches in practice. Existing modelling approaches are mostly focused on a single or limited pieces of debris. The interactions between the flow and multiple floating objects are not well explored and understood, and few modelling tools have been developed with the capability to simulate and predict these complex interactive processes.This work aims to present a two-way coupling numerical model for simulating the full-process dynamics of floating debris driven by flood waves, based on a finite volume shock-capturing hydrodynamic model solving the 2D shallow water equations and a 3D discrete element method (DEM) model. A multi-sphere method (MSM) is introduced to the DEM model to better capture the shape and size of floating objects. The coupled model estimates the hydrostatic and dynamic forces acting on debris directly using the high-resolution water depth and velocity predicted by the hydrodynamic model, efficiently and automatically capturing the interactive dynamics between transient water flow and floating debris. The model is able to simulate the full-process dynamics of floating debris, including vertical displacement, initiation, horizontal transport, depositing, interaction with and impact on structures.After being validated against experiment tests, the model is applied to reproduce a flash flood event in the coastal village of Boscastle, UK, in 2004. During the event, over 100 vehicles were carried by extreme water flow, which blocked and damaged a couple of downstream bridges, changed the pathway and extent of flooding, and finally moved with the flood water to the river mouth. The coupled model well predicts the flood dynamics, transport processes of floating vehicles, and their final locations. Further numerical experiments are caried out to discover and understand the process of floating debris blocking a bridge and the transport process and spatial distribution of different number of floating vehicles during the flood event. This model potentially provides a new and robust tool to more realistically assess flash flood risk and inform planning and design or urban buildings and infrastructure.
Can Seismicity Declustering be solved by Unsupervised Artificial Intelligence ?
Authors: Septier Antoine , Renouard Alexandra , Déverchère Jacques , Perrot Julie
Published: February 2023

Due to the complexity and high dimensionality of seismic catalogues, the dimensional reduction of raw seismic data and the feature selections needed to decluster these catalogues into crisis and non-crisis events remain a challenge. To address this problem, we propose a two-level analysis. First, an unsupervised approach based on an artificial neural network called self-organising map (SOM) is applied. The SOM is a machine learning model that performs a non-linear mapping of large input spaces into a two-dimensional grid, which preserves the topological and metric relationships of the data. It therefore facilitates visualisation and interpretation of the results obtained. Then, agglomerative clustering is used to classify the different clusters obtained by the SOM method as containing background events, aftershocks and/or swarms. To estimate the classification uncertainty and confidence level of our declustering results, we developed a probabilistic function based on the feature representation learned by the SOM (spatiotemporal distances between events, magnitude variations and event density). We tested the two-level analysis on synthetic data and applied it to real data: three seismic catalogues (Corithn Rift, Taiwan and Central Italy) that differ in area size, tectonic regime, magnitude of completeness, duration and detection methods. We show that our unsupervised machine learning approach can accurately distinguish between crisis and non-crisis events without the need for preliminary assumptions and that it is applicable to catalogues of various sizes in time and space without threshold selection.
A stress field model for the Unterhaching geothermal plant: Challenges and solutions in local model calibration
Authors: Morawietz Sophia , Ziegler Moritz , Reiter Karsten , Heidbach Oliver , Moeck Inga , Budach Ingmar , von Hartmann Hartwig , Ziesch Jennifer
Published: February 2023

The stress field of Earth's upper crust is crucial for geodynamic processes and of key importance in planning and managing the utilization of the subsurface, such as geothermal energy extraction, stimulation of enhanced geothermal systems, or safety assessment of deep geological repositories. The contemporary 3-D stress state also provides the basis to assess the impact of induced stress changes which can lead to the reactivation of pre-existing faults, the generation of new fractures, or subsidence due to long-term depletion.However, information on the stress state of Earth's crust is sparse and often not available for the areas of interest. So far, the stress tensor orientations and stress regimes have been systematically compiled and provided by the World Stress Map (WSM) project in a public-domain database. Yet, the acquisition of stress tensor orientations is not necessarily accompanied by the determination of the stress magnitudes, which, however, are required when investigating questions related to stability and hazard mitigation strategies of georeservoirs. To estimate the 3-D stress state, geomechanical-numerical modelling is applied. For the calibration of such models, stress magnitude data are essential. A major challenge is to bridge the scale gap between the widely scattered data that is required for model calibration and the high-resolution small-scale geological model in the target area. Ziegler et al. (2016) presented a multistage approach to resolve this challenge. For this, two successively calibrated models are created – one large-scale model with coarse resolution but available stress magnitude data for calibration, and one local model with fine resolution, e.g., based on a 3-D seismic survey of the target area, but without any stress data. Synthetic data obtained through the large-scale model is used to calibrate the small-scale local model.First, we validated the multistage approach by means of generic models to rigorously quantify the associated introduced uncertainties. For this purpose, we implemented a highly simplified model lithology with only vertical stratification and no lateral changes. In a second step, we applied the multistage approach in a real-world setting and demonstrated the applicability on a local model of Unterhaching, south of Munich/Germany, where a geothermal district heating plant is located. Here, a local high-resolution model based on a 3-D seismic survey (Budach et al., 2018) has been successfully calibrated on a regional-scale stress model of the Bavarian Molasse Basin. The results of the local-scale model agree with the large-scale model. At the same time, stress change due to rock property variability, only resolved in the local-scale model, is shown.
Observed and simulated local climate responses to tropical deforestation
Authors: Smith Callum , Baker Jessica , Robertson Eddy , Chadwick Robin , Kelley Douglas , Argles Arthur , Coelho Caio , Castilho Dayana , Kubota Paulo , Talamoni Isabella , Spracklen Dominick
Published: February 2023

Tropical deforestation causes local and regional changes in climate through complex biophysical and biogeochemical processes. These processes must be accurately represented in Earth System models for reliable predictions of how future land-use change will impact climate. The impacts of tropical deforestation in the sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) group of models have yet to be fully assessed and evaluated. Here, we use satellite observations to evaluate the local land-surface temperature and precipitation responses to tropical forest loss within CMIP6 simulations analysed at consistent spatial scales. Remote sensed observations show consistent local warming and drying responses to tropical forest loss across all analysed scales from 25 to 200 km. The multi-model mean broadly agrees with observations, although some models simulate increased rainfall and local cooling due to tropical deforestation, opposite to the observed response. We explore potential reasons for this discrepancy within the models. This work provides key insights for specific model improvement in relation to real-world observations. 
Radon (222Rn) in volcanic islands (Azores): Implications for public health
Authors: Silva Catarina , Viveiros Fátima , Ferreira Teresa
Published: February 2023

Radon (222Rn) is a noble gas that results from the radioactive decay chain of 238U. As the only gaseous element of this decay chain is the element with more mobility and can be released from the rocks and soils into the atmosphere. In outdoor environments the presence of this gas normally does not pose a problem for public health, however when it accumulates inside buildings it can represent a threat for human health. Being a radioactive gas, the radiation released can damage the lung cells and, in certain conditions, the damage can be so severe that can lead to the development of lung cancer.The studied areas are located at S. Miguel and S. Jorge volcanic island located in the Azores archipelago. Two different volcanic environments were considered in this study, namely, a trachytic polygenetic volcano and basaltic rift zones. The trachytic polygenetic volcano selected was Furnas Volcano located at S. Miguel Island. Furnas Volcano is well known by its important soil diffuse degassing (CO2 and 222Rn), fumarolic fields, thermal and CO2-rich waters. Two basaltic rift systems were selected, the Picos Volcanic System located in S. Miguel Island and the Manadas Volcanic System located at S. Jorge Island. No important visible degassing was known in both volcanic systems.At Furnas Volcano, the radon measurements were performed in buildings located at Furnas Village with maximum values of 14864 Bq/m3. In the basaltic rift zones, measurements were performed at Ponta Delgada City located at Picos Volcanic System and at Velas, Toledo, and Santo Amaro villages located at Manadas Volcanic System. In Ponta Delgada the maximum value reached 3717 Bq/m3 and in the Manadas Volcanic System the maximum value was measured at Velas reaching 1885 Bq/m3. Spectral Analysis and Multivariate Regression Analysis were applied to the data obtained to evaluate variables that may interfere with the radon emission as well as cyclic behaviour.Despite the geological differences between the two volcanic environments considered in this study, the maximum values measured in all the volcanic systems were above the 300 Bq/m3, limit proposed by the Portuguese law for human exposure.  As so, this work enhances the importance of performing indoor measurements in volcanic environments, even in areas where lower values would be expected.
Climate Change to Exacerbate the Compounding of Heat Stress and Flooding
Authors: Noto Leonardo Valerio , Treppiedi Dario , Villarini Gabriele
Published: February 2023

The role of climate change in exacerbating the impacts of natural hazards has been the focus of extensive interest. However, while the emphasis is generally on a single hazard (e.g., heat stress, extreme precipitation, floods, droughts), their compounding effects under climate change have been the subject of a growing number of studies. Among compound events, heat stress was recently found to be a precursor of summer flooding across the central United States. We show for the first time that heat stress can trigger floods across large areas of North and South America, southern Africa, Asia and eastern Australia. Moreover, using global climate models from the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), we show that the compounding of heat stress and floods is projected to worsen under climate change with effects magnified as we move from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) 1-2.6 to 5-8.5. Under future conditions, the compounding between heat stress and floods is projected to extend to Europe and Russia due to the increased warming. These results highlight the need towards improved preparation and mitigation measures that account for the compound nature of these two hazards, and how the compounding is expected to be exacerbated because of climate change.
TEMPLINK: a project of modeling soil temperature explained using comic strips and fiber-art
Authors: Raul-David Șerban , Mihaela Șerban
Published: February 2023

TEMPLINK stands for “Modelling ground surface TEMPerature LINKed to remote sensing land surface temperature in mountain environments”, a Marie-Curie Seal of Excellence project (https://www.eurac.edu/en/institutes-centers/institute-for-alpine-environment/projects/templink). The TEMPLINK project aims to develop a model to predict the soil subsurface temperature from satellite thermal images based on numerical modeling. Improving the monitoring of soil subsurface temperature is important for multiple geosciences and agricultural applications, being essential for understanding the climate change impacts on various environments. The model will be generated in the Mazia Valley, North-eastern Italian Alps, part of the International Long-Term Ecological Research (ILTER) network.For explaining the project main idea and workflow to kids and youth, a cartoon booklet was prepared. The comic strips are available on Academia online: https://www.academia.bz.it/strips/the-story-of-the-ground-surface-temperature. They can also be distributed during science fairs and dedicated activities with schools such as orientation weeks, school visits, GIS (Geographical Information Systems) Days, or Research Open Days. To reach a broader audience was created a fiber-art object representing a 3D model of the Mazia Valley, a typical glaciated alpine valley. Every landcover type of this valley is represented with a different string color and texture. Because the project uses remote sensing data a satellite was made from rope and hang above the 3D model. The fiber-art object is accompanied by a flyer that better explains this blend of science and art. The fiber-art object aims to advertise science through art and can be displayed in art galleries, tourist info centers, or during workshops and conferences. All these outreach materials help to disseminate the TEMPLINK project to a wide audience of different backgrounds, ages, and interests.
The Aspire campaign: Assessing the effects of aerosols on solar radiation and energy in SE Europe.
Authors: Kouklaki Dimitra , Raptis Ioannis-Panagiotis , Kazadzis Stelios , Fountoulakis Ilias , Papachristopoulou Kyriakoula , Eleftheratos Kostas
Published: February 2023

In recent years, solar power applications are growing rapidly worldwide, to meet the increasing power demand and the sustainable development planning. Estimation of solar radiation availability at surface level, its characteristics and various factors that affect it, play a key role in designing and achieving the optimal performance of systems employing solar energy. Various solar -PV related - applications are using radiative transfer modeling to characterize the radiation field, since accurate surface solar irradiance measurements are not always available, especially in remote regions. Understanding the effect of aerosols to the solar energy potential is highly important for the energy sector as well as for a variety of fields.    In areas and periods where cloudiness is limited and they are in the proximity of particle sources, the significance of aerosol effect is very high.The objective of this study is to assess the impact of the variability of aerosols on the solar Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI), Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and solar energy, using spectral solar measurements and aerosol optical properties retrievals, in the framework of the one-year experimental campaign (December 2020-December 2021) of the ASPIRE (Atmospheric parameters affecting SPectral solar IRradiance and solar Energy, https://aspire.geol.uoa.gr) project, which was held in Athens, Greece.Main findings include an assessment of differences among different PV technology and their calculated outputs using actual and standard spectra, linking the differences with aerosol optical properties (optical depth, spectral dependence, absorption). Aerosol optical depth is the major factor of such differences for all PV technologies. Spectral aerosol characteristics affect differently PV technologies as a consequence of different spectral responsivities.Finally, aerosol effect on solar nowcasting models have been investigated by comparing spectral solar measurements and aerosol properties with model inputs and outputs.