bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Can biostimulant usage with farmyard manure increase soil quality in conventionally managed croplands?
Authors: Bogunovic Igor , Dugan Ivan , Galic Marija , Kisic Ivica
Published: March 2024

Conventional practices decrease soil health and accelerate soil degradation. This work tests biostimulants extracted from the lumbripost in a maize production system. The experiment was conducted in a semi-humid environment on Stagnosols in Croatia in 2018 and 2019. Besides biostimulants, other treatments were farmyard manure (40 t ha-1) - FYM, biostimulant + FYM, and control. Bulk density and aggregate stability at the end of the experiment are significantly lower at FYM than at control plots. Control plots have significantly lower mean weight diameter of aggregates than other plots. In 2018, CO2 emissions were significantly higher at FYM and biostimulant+FYM in addition to other treatments. In 2019, biostimulant and FYM treatments had significantly higher CO2 emissions than control. Maize yields were significantly higher at biostimulant+FYM than at biostimulant and control plots in 2018. During 2019, control plots recorded significantly lower maize grain yields than other treatments. Biostimulants and farmyard manure raise crop yields, increase aggregate size and stability, and reduce bulk density, contributing to better land use management in annual rainfed croplands in Pannonian Croatia.
Keywords: biologically active compounds; conventional farming; land degradation; soil health; maize 
The power generation potential of enhanced geothermal systems in ductile crust at >15 km depth
Authors: Scott Samuel , Yapparova Alina , Weis Philipp , Houde Matthew
Published: March 2024

This study explores the power generation potential of enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) at depths of >15 km, where continental crust typically exhibits ductile behavior at temperatures above 400 °C. We employed a numerical model to evaluate the response of such deep crustal rock to fluid injection-induced pressurization and cooling. Our simulations indicate that circulating 80 kg/s of water through rock initially at 425 °C could yield ~100-120 MWth (approximately 20 MWe) for two decades. Even after a century of fluid circulation, fluid temperatures at the production wells exceed 250 °C and thermal energy output exceeds 40 MWth. However, achieving effective permeability in the stimulated volume is crucial to developing an exploitable resource; our model suggests that bulk permeability values between ~10-15 and 10-14 m2 in a rock volume of 0.1 km3 are optimal. This range balances the need to avoid excessive injection pressures and the risk of rapid thermal depletion. As the reservoir cools, the transition from ductile to brittle behavior in rock is assumed, reducing fluid pressures but increasing the risk of fluid pathway short-circuiting, a common challenge in EGS operations. Our theoretical investigation underscores the importance of geological (e.g., rock temperature and permeability) and operational (e.g., injection rate) factors in harnessing the energy potential of the ductile crust. However, practical implementation hinges on revolutionary advancements in deep drilling technology and a better understanding of rock behavior under high temperature and pressure conditions.
Optimized fertilizer N rates for bioenergy feedstock production and water quality in drylands
Authors: Allen Brett , Sainju Upendra , Dangi Sadikshya
Published: March 2024

Bioenergy feedstocks offset demand for conventional petroleum-based energy resources. Switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) is a warm-season perennial grass that has been utilized for lingo-cellulosic ethanol production and direct energy via combustion. However, little is known about its potential as a feedstock in the semi-arid northern Great Plains USA, including effects of N fertilizer application on system productivity and environmental quality. A field study initiated in 2009 seeded ‘Sunburst’ switchgrass into plots with fertilizer N broadcast each spring at 0, 28, 56, and 84 kg N per ha as urea, with four treatment replicates. Each fall beginning in 2011, aboveground biomass was harvested, weighed, and dried. Soil cores to a depth of 1.2 m were taken in fall 2018, air-dried, and analyzed for soil nitrate. Switchgrass biomass ranged from 1.8 to 12.3 Mg per ha. In most years, N application increased switchgrass biomass, but response to N rates above 28 kg per ha was inconsistent. Biomass from fertilized switchgrass averaged 6.5 Mg per ha compared to 4.4 Mg per ha for the unfertilized control.  Soil nitrate levels indicated the potential of over-fertilization of switchgrass feedstocks to negatively impact water resources in drylands. 
Conservation Agriculture to increase water productivity of durum wheat under semi-arid Mediterranean conditions
Authors: Souissi Amir , Bahri Haithem , Cheikh M’hamed Hatem , Benyoussef Salah , Annabi Mohamed
Published: March 2024

Tunisia is facing twin challenges, namely, food and water security, which are pressing now and likely to increase in the future mainly due to climate change. To face this alarming situation, the implementation of conservation agriculture (CA) remains crucial for facing interannual variability in climatic conditions that impact durum wheat production. The current study aims to assess the effect of tillage systems on grain yield (YLD), above-ground biomass (AGB), and crop water productivity. The experiment was conducted at the Bourabia experimental station of the National Institute of Agricultural Research of Tunisia, located in a semi-arid zone of Tunisia, during cropping seasons (2013-2014 and 2014-2015). At harvest, above-ground biomass, yield, and yield components of durum wheat (Maali cultivar) were determined. Tillage practices included no-tillage (CA) and conventional tillage (CV). Preceding crops were either common vetch or bread wheat. The N rates applied were: 0, 75, 100, 120, and 140 kg N ha−1. The experiments were laid out in a ‘Split-Plot’ design with three replications. The results show that the relationship between water productivity (quantity of water used to produce a ton of grain) and grain yield illustrated a better water valorization in CA system. For yields lower than 2 t ha-1, more water was needed in AC than in CV to produce the same amount of grain; Whereas for yields greater than 2 t ha-1, the opposite was revealed. On the other hand, grain yield and above-ground biomass were higher under CA compared to CV (+806 and +2468 kg ha−1 for YLD and AGB respectively) in the dry growing season (year2), while in the favorable growing season (year1), the opposite was observed (-315 and -604 kg ha−1 for YLD and AGB respectively). This feature illustrates the positive effect of CA in low-rainfall growing season due to good soil infiltration and reduction of evapotranspiration. Therefore, these findings provide evidence of the positive impact of CA on rainfed durum wheat under semi-arid Mediterranean conditions.
Spatial-temporal analysis of the impact of deforestation on the hydrological variability of the Amazon basin.
Authors: Gacharna Gonzalez Juan Manuel , Corzo Perez Gerald Augusto , Santos Granados German Ricardo , Sanchez Hernandez Karel Aldrin , Tami Riveros Carlos Alfredo , Hernandez Torres Guillermo , Herran Gustavo , Gutierrez Diego , Rubiano Fabio
Published: March 2024

In recent years, there has been growing concern about deforestation in the Amazon River basin, particularly in relation to its impact on regional water resources. This study performs a spatial and temporal analysis of deforestation variations between 2001 and 2020, using MODIS and Sentinel data. Using supervised classification techniques, we classified land changes into afforestation, deforestation and reforestation and analyzed the transitions between different land uses including forest, pasture, shrubland, crops and urbanization. Our findings show an annual forest loss of about 5,726 square kilometers, much of this deforestation is localized to specific subregions, although the overall size of the watershed suggests a lack of sensitivity.These results show a significant correlation with variations in evapotranspiration, estimated through a model calibrated with data from the ERA5 reanalysis. This dataset was used to analyze the standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration indexes (SPEI), revealing that, during the last 20 years under study, the region experienced an increase in both the magnitude and intensity of drought compared to the previous 20 years.In particular, a direct relationship is observed between aggressive agricultural policies in Brazil and Bolivia and increased deforestation rates. In addition, this study serves as the basis for complementary research work assessing the implications of these land use changes on river discharge and estimated groundwater recharge in the Amazon basin.
Numerical modeling predicts seismic resonances in the magma chamber-conduit system due to wavefield capturing
Authors: Rümpker Georg , Limberger Fabian
Published: March 2024

In this study we utilize 3D numerical models to simulate seismic resonances in a volcanic edifice, arising from the interaction between an externally excited wavefield and a magma chamber-conduit system. The resultant wavefield holds the potential to provide significant insights into the properties of the magmatic system. Contrary to previous assumptions that required an internal source, our findings show that the magma chamber and conduit efficiently capture the incident wavefield of both P- and S-waves, excited by a high-frequency (~10 Hz) earthquake located within the edifice. Due to multiple internal reflections off the boundaries of the chamber and the conduit, prolonged reverberations occur, which are guided along the conduit. Temporal and spectral analyses of synthetic seismograms illustrate that the size of the magma chamber and the width of the conduit are critical in determining the magnitude and dominant frequencies of the seismic resonances. Specifically, models with larger magma chambers and wider conduits consistently yield larger resonance amplitudes at distinct frequencies. At greater distances from the conduit, an intensified scattered wavefield with a broad frequency range indicates the presence of a substantial magma chamber within the volcanic edifice. Resonance frequencies reach up to 23 Hz, underscoring significant frequency shifts. In general, these externally initiated resonances may appear as tremor-like signals at seismic stations on the edifice, accompanying more conventional seismic events in its proximity.
Dry ocean formation: Might some SDRs represent post-breakup non-classical oceanic crust?
Authors: Phethean Jordan J. J. , Peace Alexander L.
Published: March 2024

During continental breakup, the width of a developing rift system is thought to be primarily controlled by crustal rheology, where weak and decoupled crust may develop into a wide (up to 300 km) rift system and strong crust can lead to localised thinning. Simultaneously, the development of magma-rich margins is increasingly being recognised to result from lithospheric mantle thinning prior to crustal thinning, allowing the development of both narrow and wide magma-rich continental margin systems. Seaward Dipping Reflectors (SDRs) and flat lying flows (FLFs) at magma-rich margins are generally considered to develop above rifting upper continental crust and flowing ductile lower continental crust, respectively, which in many instances contribute to isostatic buoyancy and therefore the subaerial eruption of lavas. Subsequent to continental breakup, therefore, ocean basin flooding readily occurs, leading to the production of classical oceanic crustal structure in a submerged basin (i.e. pillow basalts, sheeted dykes, and gabbro). What happens, however, if basin flooding is significantly delayed relative to breakup of the continental lithosphere? Here, we review evidence from the Mozambique Basin (and other magma-rich basins around the globe) to understand if basin flooding can postdate continental breakup and lead to the development of SDRs outboard of the continent ocean transition. In the Mozambique Basin, we find this unusual situation may have occurred locally despite the basin likely residing below sea level. This circumstance was facilitated by long-offset continent-continent transform faults isolating the basin within the continent interior during plate separation. Our findings have implications for the development of appropriate models of crustal structure at magma-rich continental margins and, therefore, our ability to appropriately interpret geophysical datasets, which often permit contrasting interpretations of crustal composition and distribution.
Observations of Suprathermal Ions(5-75 keV) in Association with Shocks
Authors: Livi Stefano , Owen Christopher , Louarn Philippe , Bruno Roberto , Fedorov Andrei , D'Amicis Raffaella , Ho George , Alterman Benjamin , Lepri Susan , Raines Jim , Dewey Ryan , Galvin Antoinette , Kistler Lynn , Allegrini Frederic , Ogasawara Keiichi , Wurz Peter
Published: March 2024

The Heavy Ion Instrument (HIS) onboard Solar Orbiter measures mass, charge, and full 3-D velocities of ions in the energy/charge range 0.5-75keV/charge. Using the data from HIS we study how interplanetary events like shocks or CME fronts create suprathermal tails in the velocity distribution and how those tails change with time. HIS observed the passage of three interplanetary shocks during the period October 2021 - May 2022. The three events were characterized by the acceleration of plasma from the solar wind energy regime (~1keV per amu/charge) to higher energies (5-75 keV), commonly referred to as suprathermal ions; later during the events, energetic particles (100keV and above) were measured by the EPD instrument. This energization process was characterized by a clear dependence upon mass/charge, and found consistent with preferential acceleration of ions present in the high energy tails of solar wind distributions, the seed population. Details of the distribution functions during the three events are presented and contrasted to each other.
Towards quantitative modeling of multi-streamer processes in 3D
Authors: Ebert Ute
Published: March 2024

Based on the work of several PhD students in Amsterdam, we now have a verified model for positive streamers in air. For streamer propagation a fluid model is sufficient, while for branching the discreteness of the photo-ionization events has to be taken into account. The model results on propagation and branching have both been validated on experiments in Eindhoven, and hence a few streamers can now be modeled quantitatively in 3D. However,  bursts or coronas with hundreds and more streamers are computationally not feasible. Instead of this, models of dielectric breakdown type should be developed, but based on the now known microscopic basis. We present two results in this direction: 1. The identification of steady positive and negative streamers and a revision of the concept of the stability field. 2. The analysis of streamer heads as coherent structures which allows a macroscopic characterization of the streamer head dynamics by few parameters such as radius, velocity, maximal and minimal field, ionization degree etc. (up to now only for positive streamers). Together with the branching simulations, these are stepping stones towards a reduced model of dielectric breakdown type for multi-streamer structures.The models were developed and evaluated by the PhD students Dennis Bouwman, Hani Francisco, Baohong Guo, Xiaoran Li and Zhen Wang under the supervision of Jannis Teunissen and Ute Ebert in Amsterdam, and the experiments used for model validation were performed by Ph.D. students Siebe Dijcks and Yihao Guo under the supervision of Sander Nijdam in Eindhoven. For the reduced model, we collaborate with Alejandro Luque in Granada, Spain.
Effect of ZnO nanoparticles on the bacterial community and other soil health parameters
Authors: Javed Zoya , Tripathi Gyan Datta , Dashora Kavya
Published: March 2024

The rapid growth of metallic nanoparticles (such as ZnO) in the present time increases the risk of the contamination of soil because it is the sink for all the nanoparticles, intentionally or unintentionally, and affects the microorganism productivity and damages the soil health. Zinc oxide nanoparticles are widely used in agriculture and other industries at the current time. Our study aimed to evaluate the toxicological effects of zinc oxide nanoparticles on the bacterial diversity of soil. A microcosm experiment was conducted by mixing the 1000 µg/gm of ZnO nanoparticles in the soil. After 60 days, the effect of zinc oxide nanoparticles on bacterial diversity was determined using Illumina MiSeq sequencing of 16S rRNA genes. The soil's physiochemical characteristics, such as C, H, and N content, were analyzed and compared with non-treated samples. Dehydrogenases (DH) and fluorescein diacetate (FDA) were assayed as the soil health indicator.  Results have shown that the relative abundances of the dominant and agriculturally significant phyla, namely, Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria, were altered in the presence of Zinc Oxide nanoparticles. However, it was also observed that Zinc oxide nanoparticles showed negligible effects at the phylum level. The dissolution of ZnO nanoparticles was also estimated with the help of ICP-MS, which was 870 µg/gm after 60 days. DH activity was higher and FDA activities were lowered compared to the non-treated soil.
How the ionosphere is shaping the dynamics of the near-Earth plasma: Insights into mass coupling across the magnetosphere
Authors: Ilie Raluca , Liu Jianghuai
Published: March 2024

A long-standing question in studying the plasma dynamics in the magnetosphere pertains to the mass coupling between the ionosphere and the global magnetosphere. This presentation explores the connection between different plasma populations lying within and outside the magnetosphere, and employs an integrated computational approach to model the geospace environment, enabling a comprehensive analysis of the evolution of all significant heavy ion species. In this presentation, we explore the circulation patterns, transport, and energization of heavy ions as they are transported from the high-latitude ionosphere across the expansive magnetosphere, examining their influence on the dynamics of the inner magnetospheric plasma. Moreover, we present compelling evidence indicating that the presence of energetic heavy ions in the inner magnetosphere significantly contributes to the initial stages of plasmasphere refilling. This contribution stems from the composition of heavy ions within the plasma sheet, which primarily dictates the formation of cold protons through charge exchange with the geocorona, with the neutral density exerting a comparatively minor role. 
The European Green Deal Data Space roadmap
Authors: Denvil Sébastien , Gutierrez Marta , Dietrich Mark , Raczko Nevena , Santoro Mattia , Briese Christian , Chatzikyriakou Charis
Published: March 2024

The European Commission has a program to accelerate the Digital Transition and is putting forward a vision based on cloud, common European Data Spaces and AI. As the data space paradigm unfolds across Europe, the Green Deal Data Space emerges. Its foundational pillars are to be built by the GREAT project.
GREAT, the Green Deal Data Space Foundation and its Community of Practice, has the ambitious goal of defining how data with the potential to help combat climate and environmental related challenges, in line with the European Green Deal, can be shared more broadly among many stakeholders, sectors and boundaries, according to European values such as fair access, privacy and security.
The Green Deal Data Space stands at the intersection of two major European policy initiatives: the EU Strategy for Data and the European Green Deal. The GDDS will be designed and implemented to exploit the potential of data to effectively support the Green Deal priority actions, empowering policy makers, businesses, researchers, and citizens, from Europe and around the world, to jointly tackle issues such as climate change, circular economy, zero pollution, biodiversity protection, deforestation and compliance assurance.
Out of the many European Green Deal strategic actions, the GREAT project focussed on three priorities (Biodiversity 2030, Zero Pollution and Climate change), in order to effectively capture the diversity of requirements across the full range of the European Green Deal. These three initiatives are interlinked with other EGD strategic action, approximate the full scope of the GDDS, as well as complementing actions being addressed by other thematic data spaces (such as the “Farm to Fork Strategy” being addressed by the agricultural data space). During the final stage of the roadmap elaboration, circular economy aspects together with the digital product passport concept were considered so that in addition to the Green Deal Policies binding targets, circular economy and digital product pilots and use cases should be instrumental in driving implemtation's decisions.
The implementation roadmap will guide the efforts of multiple actors to converge toward a blueprint technical architecture, a data governance scheme that enables innovative business cases, and an inventory of high value datasets. Data sharing by design and data sovereignty are some of the main principles that will apply from the early stages. This talk will present the final version  of the roadmap, pillars, goals and strategic actions and will seek feedback and collaborations from the EGU community.
3D Geolocation of Simulated Lightning Sources from Low-Earth Orbit
Authors: Remington Jackson , Behnke Sonja , Edens Harald , Gatlin Patrick , Lang Timothy , Pailoor Nikhil , Quick Mason , Stough Sarah
Published: March 2024

The recent removal of the Lightning Imaging Sensor from the International Space Station has left an observational gap in lightning detection from low-Earth orbit (LEO). However, new studies have demonstrated the potential for 3D geolocation of lightning sources using orbiting sensors. The Cubespark mission concept aims to take advantage of these developments by deploying a constellation of satellites with radio frequency (RF) sensors and optical imagers to not only map lightning locations, but also to collect bi-spectral flash images. These new capabilities include mapping storm charge structure, flash channel structure, and distinguishing microphysical processes throughout flash development, helping link microphysics and convective processes with overall flash and storm structure around the globe from LEO.In this study, we simulate lightning RF sources in the very high frequency (VHF) band, extrapolate their signals to space-based detection using an improved ionospheric model, and reconstruct their 3D locations using a time-of-arrival (TOA) minimization algorithm. Various constellation configurations, locations, and atmospheric conditions are considered in order to identify and quantify the three main sources of geolocation error: geometric, ionospheric, and instrumental effects. The promising results of this study emphasize the potential of space-based 3D lightning mapping under diverse conditions. 3D resolution is shown to be better than 1-2 km in many cases, enabling new global applications in meteorology and climate sciences. Here we present a selection of these geolocation results as seen from space alongside recent advancements, paving the way for a future generation of LEO lightning mappers.
Application of an Innovative Centrifuge-Based Soil Pore Water Sampling Method in Basalt Enhanced Weathering Field Trials.
Authors: Radkova Anezka , Liu XinRan , Bierowiec Tzara , Chen Erin , Edeh Ifeoma , Frew Amy , Healy Matthew , Jones Lucy , Mc Bride Amy , Murphy Mel , Palmer Robert , Skov Kirstine , Solpuker Utku , Turner Will , de Toro Sanchez Villa , Wade Peter , Wardman Jez , Mann Jim
Published: March 2024

Basalt Enhanced Weathering as a Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) technology accelerates natural weathering, enhancing the CO2 removal from the atmosphere. The main objective of the ongoing field trials in Scotland and the UK is to combine geochemistry modelling with in-field measurement to most accurately quantify CO2 sequestration. To measure the weathering signal in the field, we track changes in indicators such as soil inorganic carbon (SIC), soil organic carbon (SOC), exchangeable cations, trace/immobile elements, and soil biomass. Pore water analysis is critical for directly quantifying CO2 sequestration. Bicarbonate in soil pore water is a  CO2 removal indicator, as it forms through the reaction of silicate minerals with dissolved CO2 during the initial weathering process. We analyze pore water for pH, alkalinity, Electrical Conductivity (EC), major cations, and anions. This task can be challenging due to sampling issues, the absence of rainfall, and the time-sensitive nature of alkalinity measurements. Analyses of pore water chemistry rely on the ability to separate water from solids with minimal modification of its chemistry. Rhizon samplers and ceramic lysimeters are commonly used for pore water extraction. They may not be ideal for parameters like pH and alkalinity due to certain limitations, such as degassing of dissolved gases, and biases in molecule diffusion through the membrane. In response, we are testing a centrifuge method for pore water sampling from basalt amended fields. In the initial trial, statistical significance tests were conducted to compare the pH and total alkalinity between control plot and Treatment 126 t/ha in both centrifuge and rhizon samples, revealing a statistically significant difference (p < 0.05) in values within the centrifuge samples. However, no significance was observed in the rhizon samples. We present the results of ongoing tests from different treatments and soil types conducted to investigate whether centrifuge would be a suitable method for pore water sampling and alkalinity measurement for the enhanced weathering field trials.
Workflows with Autosubmit in EDITO
Authors: De Paula Kinoshita Bruno , Beltran Mora Daniel , G. Marciani Manuel , Tenorio Ku Luiggi , Castrillo Miguel
Published: March 2024

The European Digital Twin of the Ocean, EDITO, is an initiative of the European Commission that aims to create a virtual representation of marine and coastal environments around the globe to assess future impacts of climate change and human activities, improving the accessibility of ocean knowledge. EDITO Infra is the backbone of EDITO. It provides the infrastructure where components of the EDITO digital twin are combined and integrated.In this work, we describe how Autosubmit is integrated and used in EDITO Infra, as the back-end component of the Virtual Ocean Model Lab (VOML, a virtual co-working environment). Users of the digital twin can connect to the VOML to customize and build ocean models, run using cloud and HPC resources, and access applications deployed in the EDITO Infra that consume the output of the models. Besides usually being a local software that helps users to leverage remote resources, in this case we demonstrate Autosubmit's versatility with this scenario in which it is deployed using Docker and Kubernetes, tools used traditionally in cloud environments.In this context, Autosubmit acts as a middleware between the applications, and HPC and Cloud resources. It manages experiments and workflows, connecting EuroHPC’s like MareNostrum 5 and Leonardo. It provides integration with different GUI’s (with a REST API), GIS systems, and other services.
East Asian Subtropical Jet Impact on Monthly Near-surface Wind Speed Change over China
Authors: Shen Cheng
Published: March 2024

Previous research has extensively explored the “stilling” and “reversal” phenomena in annual near-surface wind speed (NSWS). However, the variations in the strengths of these phenomena between different months remain unclear. Here the monthly changes in observed NSWS from 769 stations across China during 1979–2020 were analyzed. The analysis reveals a consistent decline in NSWS that ceased around 2011, followed by an increasing trend detected in all months except March, where a distinct hiatus is observed. The hiatus in March NSWS is primarily attributed to a significant reduction in NSWS over North and Northwest China. This reduction can be linked to the southward shift of the East Asian subtropical jet (EASJ), which resulted in a decreased meridional temperature gradient and weakened transient eddy activities across northern China. These findings emphasize the importance of considering changes in the EASJ to gain a comprehensive understanding of NSWS changes at a regional scale.
Numerical modeling of the tidal oyster mussel bed interactions with fine sediment in the Ems estuary
Authors: Shiravani Gholamreza , Oberrecht Dennis , Wurpts Andreas
Published: March 2024

Oyster (in this research is the Pacific oyster i.e. Magallana gigas) mussel beds in tidal estuaries affect the sediment dynamics through increasing the sediment settling velocity (filtration rate) and decreasing the current energy by elevating the hydraulic bed roughness. Although an extensive research on the benthic organisms and their engineering works have been performed, detailed three dimensional (3D) numerical models which properly consider the oyster mussel bed interactions with fine sediment and include the ambient water properties (temperature, salinity and sediment concentration) are rare.
To fill this knowledge gap and improve the available understandings on the interactions of oyster mussel beds with fine sediment, a 3D-Eulerian RANS model within the framework of an open source software i.e. Delft 3D-FLOW/MOR was developed to reproduce the hydrodynamic and corresponding morphodynamic results. The developed model is implemented for the Ems estuary and the adjacent German Wadden Sea using 21 vertical sigma layers and time frame of three months with a morphological factor of 12 (MF=12) to reproduce the morphodynamical developments of three years.
The detailed model results for fine sediment (affected settling velocity, concentration, erosion and sedimentation) over an oyster mussel bed reveal the establishment of a high concentrated fine sediment layer and reduction of flow velocity compared with the model results without including the oyster mussel bed.
Deciphering Andean glaciovolcanic processes through geomorphic analysis: the Toro Chico valley, Chile's south (37ºS)
Authors: Fernandez Alfonso , Herrera Mariajose , Jaque Edilia , Galilea Ianire
Published: March 2024

Chile’s geomorphology displays the majority of terrestrial morphogenetic environments. Within the Laja River Basin (37ºS), along the central Mediterranean zone, the Valle del Toro Chico's hanging valley stands out as mixture of a variety of geomorphological environments, including glacial, volcanic, lacustrine, aeolian, and fluvial. The excellent preservation of landforms here, allows for investigation of the multiple coexisting environments and their associated processes that might have caused a sediment infill in the valley of such thickness that left the system relatively disconnected from the containing basin. Here we present our current research on the evolution of this hanging valley. Firstly, to characterize and determine the geomorphology present in Valle del Toro Chico, we have conducted detailed geomorphological mapping, revealing the landform history of the sector, alowing us to propose a relative chronology of events. Secondly, given the apparent complex interaction of processes, we employ geomorphic evidences to discuss whether the valley is indeed a hanging valley or instead a sediment infill from glacial, lacustrine, and volcanic processes.
Partial land surface emulator forecasts ecosystem states at verified horizons
Authors: Wesselkamp Marieke , Chantry Matthew , Kalweit Maria , Pinnington Ewan , Choulga Margarita , Boedecker Joschka , Dormann Carsten , Pappenberger Florian , Balsamo Gianpaolo
Published: March 2024

While forecasting of climate and earth system processes has long been a task for numerical models, the rapid development of deep learning applications has recently brought forth competitive AI systems for weather prediction. Earth system models (ESMs), even though being an integral part of numerical weather prediction have not yet caught that same attention. ESMs forecast water, carbon and energy fluxes and in the coupling with an atmospheric model, provide boundary and initial conditions. We set up a comparison of different deep learning approaches for improving short-term forecasts of land surface and ecosystem states on a regional scale. Using simulations from the numerical model and combining them with observations, we will partially emulate an existing land surface scheme, conduct a probabilistic forecasts of core ecosystem processes and determine forecast horizons for all variables.
A  Meta-Learning Approach for Adaptive Model Selection in Hydrological Time Series Forecasting
Authors: slaimi asma , Scriney Michael , Hegarty Susan , Regan Fiona , E. O’Connor Noel
Published: March 2024

Accurate hydrological prediction faces challenges due to diverse datasets and the absence of universally applicable models. This study investigates meta-learning's role in identifying optimal models for hydrological time series forecasting in specific contexts. We explore limitations in model identification and introduce meta-learning as a solution.The proposed methodology formalizes the model selection process by using meta-features from a dataset that includes time series, geology, and the experimental configuration and results of predictions . These features are crucial for empowering the meta-learner to make informed model selections.The study encompasses localized and national analyses, offering insights into the meta-learner's performance across distinct geographic regions.In this initial phase of the experiment, we present the results of the Meta-Learners within the context of a localized evaluation in Ireland, we evaluated the Neagh Bann River Basin District ( NB RBD) which covers an area of around 5740 km2. It includes all of County Armagh, large parts of Counties Antrim, Londonderry, Down and Tyrone and a small area County Fermanagh in Ireland.  Using the NB RBD dataset which comprises 16 monitoring stations, we constructed the details of 12  prediction models. The second phase of the experiment widens its scope by encompassing data from multiple locations across Ireland. This broader approach allows us to draw upon a more extensive and diverse dataset, comprehensively evaluating meta-learner performance within a national context. By incorporating data from various regions in Ireland, we aim to capture a more holistic understanding of the meta-learners' adaptability and effectiveness in a nationally diverse landscape.  We used data from 249 hydrometric stations in Ireland, each corresponding to a distinct geographical location. This comprehensive dataset encompasses various locations across the country, offering a rich and diverse perspective for our analysis.Evaluation results demonstrate the performance of 12 models. Models like Random Forest and K-Nearest Neighbors show promise, while Support Vector Machine struggles consistently. Addressing class imbalance through resampling techniques proves effective, underscoring the importance of tailored model selection strategies.Key findings highlight model performance variability, concerns about overfitting, and the significance of appropriate resampling strategies. The meta-learner's application showcases its value in leveraging strengths across classifiers and mitigating weaknesses.In conclusion, this study contributes to advancing adaptive model selection methodologies in hydrological time series forecasting. Keywords: Meta-learning, model selection, hydrologic time-series prediction.
Algorithm development, cal/val activities of NASA’s ICESat-2 mission and coordination with ESA’s CryoSat-2 and CRISTAL missions
Authors: Markus Thorsten
Published: March 2024

CryoSat-2 was launched in 2010, ICESat-2 in 2018, CRISTAL is scheduled for launch in 2027. These missions provide high precision altimetry measurements from space with an emphasis on measuring the heights of sea ice and the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica. While CryoSat-2 and CRISTAL are radar altimeters, ICESat-2 is a laser altimeter. We now have 5+ years of overlapping CryoSat-2 and ICESat-2 data and with an expected lifetime of ICESat-2 into the 2030s we likely will have coincident ICESat-2 and CRISTAL data as well.
ICESat-2, a photon-counting lidar, provided a new concept for laser altimetry from space. Thus no precursor spaceborne data were available. In order to better understand expected data and to enable pre-launch algorithm development airborne simulators were developed and flown over the wide range of targets. These data were critical for having tested algorithms in place at the time of launch and distribute operational geophysical products (e.g., land ice elevation, sea ice freeboard, tree heights, inland water products etc.) to the community shortly after launch.
To ensure proper post-launch calibration we picked Greenland Summit Station as the orbit anchor point as that station conduct routine GPS surveys underneath the ICESat-2 path. Similarly, for the southern hemisphere we have been conducting ground GPS survey along parts of the 88o S line in Antarctica. This is the ICESat-2 orbit inclination and thus the area where all ICESat-2 tracks converge.
For post-launch cal/val airborne campaigns, first as part as of Operation IceBridge and later as dedicated flight over specific targets, we coordinated our flights with CryoSat-2 tracks as well and especially aligned flight lines with “Cryo2Ice” lines. Cryo2ice is a collaborative effort between NASA and ESA. ESA is routinely changing CryoSat-2’s orbit to align with ICESat-2’s. This is enabling scientists to fully explore the synergistic and complementary nature of those two missions.
For the ESA CRISTAL mission, NASA will be providing a passive microwave radiometer as an additional instrument. While the primary purpose is to correct for potential path delays of the radar signal in the troposphere, the 19 and 34 GHz frequencies of that radiometer have been extensively used for cryospheric science. Thus there is a potential for ground breaking science using coincident radar and laser altimeter data together with the brightness temperatures at those frequencies. Joint airborne campaigns to enable pre-launch exploration are currently in the planning stage.
Evaluation of Extreme Weather Events: Using ECMWF's Reforecast Data
Authors: Ayim Olivia Vashti
Published: March 2024

The frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, like heat waves, are increasing significantly due to climate change. These events have different effects on various socio-economic sectors worldwide, which directly affect people’s lives. This study aims to quantify how quickly the probability of these severe events changes and use this information to predict short-term extreme events. By integrating this measure into socio-economic predictive models, we can better understand the potential impact of climate change on different regions and populations, allowing for the development of more effective adaptation strategies. This study used ECMWF’s Reforecast data to statistically analyze the probabilities of extreme temperatures in the Pacific Northwest region and the time taken in decades for local temperatures to change, which will result in a doubling of these risks. The findings indicate an increasing probability of extreme temperatures with every unit increment in Global Land Surface Temperature Anomaly in more than 80 per cent of the region. Moreso, with the current rate of global warming (~0.32K/decade) the estimated time that the local temperature changes will result in a doubled risk of such extreme temperatures is averaging 0.2 of a decade over the PNW region. 
Local to moment earthquake magnitude conversion in mainland France and implications for seismic hazard assessment
Authors: Arroucau Pierre , Duverger Clara , Traversa Paola , Daniel Guillaume , Mayor Jessie , Mazet-Roux Gilles
Published: March 2024

Modern ground motion prediction equations used in probabilistic seismic hazard assessment studies are now almost exclusively expressed as a function of moment magnitude MW. Yet, earthquake catalogues produced by seismic observatories often provide local magnitude ML only. It is for instance the case for the Laboratoire de Détection Géophysique (LDG) catalogue recently published by Duverger et al. (2021) for mainland France. A conversion relationship was proposed by Cara et al. (2015) from ML (LDG) to MW. It appears however that this relationship does not result in a good fit when compared to recently compiled MW values for France and neighboring areas (Laurendeau et al., 2020). In this work, we propose a new conversion relationship based on the inversion of ML-MW couples for events present in both the LDG catalogue and the compilation of Laurendeau et al. (2021). In order to avoid the choice of an arbitrary number of segments to model the MW=f(ML) relationship, the inverse problem is solved in a Bayesian framework by means of the reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (rj-McMC) algorithm (Green, 1995; Bodin et al., 2012). The number of segments, as well as their respective slopes and intercepts, are jointly invert for. As moment magnitude uncertainty is not known, it is also considered as an unknown, while the ML uncertainties provided in the LDG catalogue are fully accounted for by random sampling during the McMC process. We observe a geographical dependence of the differences between the available MW values and those obtained from calculation so a location-dependent term is also modeled. This allows to account for the regional attenuation variations that can affect ML estimates. The new conversion law is then applied to the full LDG catalogue and its impact on seismic hazard assessment is explored.
Exploring risks and benefits of overshooting a 1.5 ◦C carbon budget over space and time
Authors: Bauer Nico , Keller David , Garbe Julius , Karstens Kristine , Piontek Franziska , von Bloh Werner , Thiery Wim , Zeitz Maria , Mengel Matthias , Strefler Jessica , Thonicke Kirsten , Winkelmann Ricarda
Published: March 2024

Temperature targets of the Paris Agreement limit global net cumulative emissions to very tight carbon budgets. The possibility to overshoot the budget and offset near-term excess emissions by net-negative emissions is considered economically attractive as it eases near-term mitigation pressure. While potential side effects of carbon removal deployment are discussed extensively, the additional climate risks and the impacts and damages have attracted less attention. We link six models for an integrative analysis of the climatic, environmental and socio-economic consequences of temporarily overshooting a carbon budget consistent with the 1.5 ◦C temperature target along the cause-effect chain from emissions and carbon removals to climate risks and impact. Global climatic indicators such as CO2-concentration and mean temperature closely follow the carbon budget overshoot with mid-century peaks of 50 ppmv and 0.35 ◦C, respectively. Our findings highlight that investigating overshoot scenarios requires temporally and spatially differentiated analysis of climate, environmental and socioeconomic systems. We find persistent and spatially heterogeneous differences in the distribution of carbon across various pools, ocean heat content, sea-level rise as well as economic damages. Moreover, we find that key impacts, including degradation of marine ecosystem, heat wave exposure and economic damages, are more severe in equatorial areas than in higher latitudes, although absolute temperature changes being stronger in higher latitudes. The detrimental effects of a 1.5 ◦C warming and the additional effects due to overshoots are strongest in non-OECD countries (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development). Constraining the overshoot inflates CO2 prices, thus shifting carbon removal towards early afforestation while reducing the total cumulative deployment only slightly, while mitigation costs increase sharply in developing countries. Thus, scenarios with carbon budget overshoots can reverse global mean temperature increase but imply more persistent and geographically heterogeneous impacts. Overall, the decision about overshooting implies more severe trade-offs between mitigation and impacts in developing countries.
Physical phenology of air-sea heat budget for the Beaufort Sea autumn freeze-up
Authors: Chen Yanxu , Menezes Viviane , Yu Lisan , Carrigg Joseph
Published: March 2024

Recent observations in the Arctic Ocean have confirmed predictions about fifty years ago that the Arctic is the Earth's most sensitive region to climate change. Evident phenomena in the Beaufort Sea include an average of 1-2 days delay per year of the autumn freeze-up. In the same fashion, open-water period during which the Arctic is sea ice-free is lengthening, leading to notable changes in air-sea heat, momentum and chemical fluxes. This study aims to examine the air-sea energy budget by a combination of three reanalyses (ERA5, MERRA-2, and CFSv2) and observations from a recent field campaign in the Beaufort Sea (NASA SASSIE cruise in September 2022). Obvious in all of these four data sources, the accumulative net air-sea heat flux reaches its minimum at the autumn equinox, indicating ocean's transition from heat gain to loss. This onset of ocean cooling is in part owing to the gradual reduction of incoming shortwave radiance, and in part on account of more intense outgoing longwave radiation and turbulent heat flux released from the sea surface. We show that conducting processes measured by air-sea temperature difference play a crucial role in shaping turbulent heat fluxes, while wind speed is not as important. In terms of the entrant buoyancy flux, beta-effect (salinity-driven) dominates over alpha (temperature-determined) in water mass transformation, highlighting the importance of more accurate predictions in sea ice activities and understanding in air-ocean-ice coupled dynamics.
Effectiveness of natural soil water retention measures at field scale under current and future climate – case studies in three European biogeographical regions
Authors: Farkas Csilla , Shore Moritz , Horel Ágota , Cüceloglu Gökhan , Czelnai Levente , Mirosław-Świątek Dorota , Turek Maria Eliza , Cerkasova Natalja , Szabó Brigitta , Zajiček Antonín , Nemes Attila , Weiland Sinja , Fucik Petr , Holzkaemper Annelie , Idzelyté Rasa , Marval Stepan
Published: March 2024

Within the EU Horizon project OPTAIN (OPtimal strategies to reTAIN and re-use water and nutrients in small agricultural catchments across different soil-climatic regions in Europe, optain.eu) project, the effects of Natural/Small Water Retention Measures (NSWRMs) on water regime, soil erosion and nutrient transport are evaluated at both, catchment- and field-scales for present and future climate conditions. Our goal is to perform an integrated, model-based assessment of the effectiveness of NSWRMs at field scale and cross-validated these results from those obtained from the catchment-scale modelling. The field-scale assessment is based on the adaptation of the SWAP mathematical model to seven pilot sites across three European biogeographical regions and on combined NSWRM – projected climate scenario analyses. The scenarios are designed to evaluate the efficiency and potential of different natural/small water retention measures in improving soil water retention and reducing flash floods and the loss of soil and nutrients under changing climate conditions. We present the harmonized SWAP modelling workflow and the combined scenario analyses, including the implementation of various in-field measures in the SWAP model. Examples of model calibration, validation and scenario results for selected pilot sites will be given.