bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Very Early Rehabilitation or Intensive Telemetry after Stroke: A Pilot Randomised Trial
Authors: Langhorne Peter , Stott David , Knight Anne , Bernhardt Julie , Barer David , Watkins Caroline
Published: February 2010

Background: Stroke patients are more likely to make a good recovery if they receive care in a well-organised stroke unit. However, there are uncertainties about how best to provide such care. We studied 2 key aspects of early stroke unit care: early active mobilisation (EM) and automated monitoring (AM) for physiological complications such as hypoxia. Methods: This was an observer-blinded, factorial (2 × 2) pilot randomised controlled trial recruiting stroke patients within 36 h of symptom onset. The patients were randomised to 1 of 4 nurse-led treatment protocols: (a) standard stroke unit care, (b) EM, (c) AM or (d) combined EM and AM. The primary outcome was the Rankin score at 3 months. We also report the data on feasibility and safety. Results: We randomised 32 patients (mean age = 65 years; mean baseline modified NIH score = 6). On unadjusted comparisons, the EM patients were significantly (p < 0.05) more likely to mobilise very early (within 1 h of randomisation) and to achieve walking by day 5 and were less likely to develop complications of immobility. The AM group was significantly (p < 0.05) more likely to have pre-defined physiological complication events detected. All these associations remained, but were less statistically significant, after correcting for age, baseline NIH score and co-interventions. There were no significant safety concerns. Discussion: We have demonstrated the feasibility of implementing EM and AM for physiological complications in a randomised controlled trial. Larger trials are warranted to determine whether these interventions have clinical benefits.
Peroxisome Proliferator-Activated Receptor-γ and Its Coactivator-1α Gene Polymorphisms in Korean Women with Polycystic Ovary Syndrome
Authors: Chae Soo Jin , Kim Jin Ju , Choi Young Min , Kim Jong Mee , Cho Young Min , Moon Shin Yong
Published: February 2010

Background/Aims: To investigate whether the peroxisome proliferator-activated receptor-γ (PPAR-γ) Pro12Ala and the PPAR-γ coactivator-1α (PGC-1α) Gly482Ser polymorphisms were associated with polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS). Methods: Genetic analyses of the PPAR-γ Pro12Ala and the PGC-1α Gly482Ser polymorphisms were performed in 184 patients with PCOS and 256 controls. Hormone levels, biochemical and clinical features were analyzed according to these polymorphisms. Results: Neither the PPAR-γPro12Ala nor the PGC-1α Gly482Ser polymorphism showed significant differences in genotypic distribution between women with PCOS and controls. In PCOS patients, women with the non-Pro/Pro genotypes of the PPAR-γ Pro12Ala polymorphism showed statistically significantly higher HDL levels than those with the Pro/Pro genotype (p = 0.002). PCOS patients who had the Ser/Ser genotype of the PGC-1α Gly482Ser polymorphism had significantly higher levels of postprandial 2-hour insulin than those with the Gly/Ser genotype (p = 0.045). Conclusions: Neither the PPAR-γPro12Ala nor the PGC-1α Gly482Ser polymorphism were supposed to be susceptible genes in PCOS. However, in PCOS patients, the PPAR-γPro12Ala and the PGC-1α Gly482Ser polymorphism may modulate the concentrations of serum HDL levels and postprandial 2-hour insulin level, respectively.
Relationships between Fluoride Intake, Urinary Fluoride Excretion and Fluoride Retention in Children and Adults: An Analysis of Available Data
Authors: Villa A. , Anabalon M. , Zohouri V. , Maguire A. , Franco A.M. , Rugg-Gunn A.
Published: February 2010

The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between total daily fluoride intake (TDFI), daily urinary fluoride excretion (DUFE) and fractional fluoride retention (FFR) using available data, in order to clarify the ability of DUFE to predict TDFI and, therefore, the risk of fluorosis development. Examination of published reports of simultaneous measurement of TDFI and DUFE, together with data from two unpublished Chilean studies, yielded data for 212 children aged less than 7 years and for 283 adults aged 18–75 years, providing a total of 212 and 269 data points, respectively. The relationship between DUFE and TDFI was studied for children and adults, separately. Daily fluoride retention (DFR) was estimated as a function of TDFI in children and adults assuming an average 90% fluoride absorption, and the numerical relationships between the estimated FFR and the TDFI were explored. Limiting FFR values of 0.55 and 0.36 were found for children and adults, respectively, above a threshold of TDFI of 0.5 and 2 mg, respectively. Neutral fluoride balances were predicted when the TDFI was equal to approximately 0.07 mg F/day for children and 0.8 mg F/day for adults. For children and adults, it is possible to obtain reasonably good estimations of community-based TDFI and DFR, using DUFE data. The advantages and limitations of these relationships, together with the need for future studies, are discussed.
Association between Stroke Severity and Fall Risk among Stroke Patients
Authors: Schmid Arlene A. , Kapoor John R. , Dallas Mary , Bravata Dawn M.
Published: February 2010

Background: Falls are common after stroke. Simple, clinically practical tools are needed to easily identify patients with stroke who are at risk of falls. The objective of this study was to identify the factors associated with increased fall risk in a poststroke population. Methods: We assessed factors associated with fall risk among poststroke patients. Fall risk was determined through a history of falls, physical examination, observations of transfers, gait, balance, strength, range of motion, and use of assistive devices. Stroke severity was evaluated using the NIH Stroke Scale (NIHSS); mild or moderate-severe stroke was defined as a NIHSS score of <4 or ≧4, respectively. Results: Among 52 poststroke patients, 26 (50%) were considered at risk of falls. Patients at risk of falls compared with those without fall risk were more likely to have greater stroke severity, decreased functional status, and to be more dependent in activities of daily living. Increased stroke severity was independently associated with higher fall risk (NIHSS ≧4: OR = 5.73; 95% CI: 1.645–19.94). Conclusion: Poststroke patients at risk of falls can be identified by an NIHSS score of ≧4. Clinicians should screen patients for fall risk so that fall prevention strategies can be instituted.
Noninvasive Creation of an Atrial Septal Defect by Histotripsy in a Canine Model
Authors: Xu Zhen , Owens Gabe , Gordon David , Cain Charles , Ludomirsky Achi
Published: February 2010

Background—

The primary objective of this study was to develop an image-guided, noninvasive procedure to create or enlarge an atrial septal defect for the treatment of neonates with hypoplastic left heart syndrome and an intact or restrictive atrial septum. Histotripsy is an innovative ultrasonic technique that produces nonthermal, mechanical tissue fractionation through the use of high-intensity ultrasound pulses. This article reports the pilot in vivo study to create an atrial septal defect through the use of extracardiac application of histotripsy in an open-chest canine model.

Methods and Results—

In 10 canines, the atrial septum was exposed to histotripsy by an ultrasound transducer positioned outside the heart. Ultrasound pulses of 6-microsecond duration at a peak negative pressure of 15 MPa and a pulse repetition frequency of 3.3 kHz were generated by a 1-MHz focused transducer. The procedure was guided and monitored by real-time ultrasound imaging. In 9 of 10 canines, an atrial septal defect was produced, and shunting across the atrial septum was visualized. Pathology of the hearts showed atrial septal defects with minimal damage to surrounding tissue. No damage was found on the epicardial surface of the heart or other structures.

Conclusions—

Under real-time ultrasound guidance, atrial septal defects were successfully created with extracardiac histotripsy in a live canine model. Although further studies in an intact animal model are needed, these results provide promise of histotripsy becoming a valuable clinical tool.
Extensible Behavior of Titin in the Miniswine Left Ventricle
Authors: LeWinter Martin M. , Popper Joseph , McNabb Mark , Nyland Lori , Bell Stephen B. , Granzier Henk
Published: February 2010

Background—

The sarcomeric protein titin is a molecular spring responsible for passive tension and restoring forces of cardiomyocytes. Extension of titin as a function of sarcomere length (SL) has been studied in rodents, which predominantly express the smaller, stiffer N2B titin isoform. Large mammals coexpress roughly equal proportions of N2B and N2BA titin, the larger, more compliant isoform. We hypothesized that extension of titin in relation to SL differs in large mammals and that this difference is functionally important.

Methods and Results—

We characterized the filling pressure–SL relation in diastolic-arrested miniswine left ventricles. SL was 2.15 to 2.25 μm at a filling pressure of ≈0 mm Hg and reached a maximum of ≈2.50 μm with overfilling. In the normal filling pressure range, SL ranged from ≈2.32 to ≈2.40 μm. We assessed titin extension as a function of SL using immunoelectron microscopy, which allowed delineation of the behavior of specific spring segments. The major isoform difference was that the N2B-Us segment extended ≈4-fold more as a function of SL in N2B compared with N2BA titin. Using this segment, we estimated sarcomeric force development with a worm-like chain model and found that N2B develops markedly greater force than N2BA titin. The resulting force with coexpression of N2B and N2BA titin is intermediate.

Conclusions—

In light of murine studies showing that operating SLs are shorter than in miniswine, our results indicate that coexpression of the 2 titin isoforms in large mammals allows longer SLs without the development of excessive diastolic tension.
Impact of Different Diagnostic Criteria During Adrenal Vein Sampling on Reproducibility of Subtype Diagnosis in Patients With Primary Aldosteronism
Authors: Mulatero Paolo , Bertello Chiara , Sukor Norlela , Gordon Richard , Rossato Denis , Daunt Nicholas , Leggett David , Mengozzi Giulio , Veglio Franco , Stowasser Michael
Published: February 2010

In patients with primary aldosteronism, adrenal vein sampling (AVS) is considered the only reliable technique to distinguish between unilateral and bilateral autonomous production of aldosterone, but agreement is lacking on the best criteria indicating successful cannulation and lateralization. The objective of this study was to assess the impact of differing criteria for the successful cannulation and lateralization on the reproducibility of subtype diagnosis. Sixty-two patients with confirmed primary aldosteronism underwent AVS on 2 separate occasions, because the first was unsatisfactory. We compared the different diagnoses of primary aldosteronism subtype reached using AVS data assessed by permissive (type 1), intermediate (type 2), and strict (type 3) criteria. Although 91.1% of all of the (both first and second) AVSs were “successful” by type 1 criteria (50.8% by type 2 and 33.9% by type 3), in only 35.3% of patients was the diagnosis concordant between the first and second AVS. Type 1 criteria also led to a higher rate of diagnosis of unilateral primary aldosteronism (67.3% of successful procedures) than type 2 (36.5%) or type 3 (26.2%). There was considerable disparity in the diagnosis reached using the 3 different criteria, with concordance in only 32.2%. Using either type 1 or 2 criteria, the minimal adrenal/peripheral vein cortisol ratio necessary to obtain the same diagnosis in the first and second AVS procedures was ≥2.75. In conclusion, permissive criteria for successful cannulation and lateralization on AVS achieve poor diagnostic reproducibility and should be avoided.
Application of TRMM PR and TMI Measurements to Assess Cloud Microphysical Schemes in the MM5 for a Winter Storm
Authors: Han Mei , Braun Scott A. , Olson William S. , Persson P. Ola G. , Bao Jian-Wen
Published: February 2010

This paper uses observations from Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation radar (PR) and microwave imager (TMI) to evaluate the cloud microphysical schemes in the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5; version 3.7.4) for a wintertime frontal precipitation system over the eastern Pacific Ocean. By incorporating a forward radiative transfer model, the radar reflectivity and brightness temperatures are simulated and compared with the observations at PR and TMI frequencies. The main purpose of this study is to identify key differences among the five schemes [including Simple ice, Reisner1, Reisner2, Schultz, and Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) microphysics scheme] in the MM5 that may lead to significant departures of simulated precipitation properties from both active (PR) and passive (TMI) microwave observations. Radiative properties, including radar reflectivity, attenuation, and scattering in precipitation liquid and ice layers are investigated. In the rain layer, most schemes are capable of reproducing the observed radiative properties to a reasonable degree; the Reisner2 simulation, however, produces weaker reflectivity and stronger attenuation than the observations, which is possibly attributable to the larger intercept parameter (N0r) applied in this run. In the precipitation ice layer, strong evidence regarding the differences in the microphysical and radiative properties between a narrow cold-frontal rainband (NCFR) and a wide cold-frontal rainband (WCFR) within this frontal precipitation system is found. The performances of these schemes vary significantly on simulating the microphysical and radiative properties of the frontal rainband. The GSFC scheme shows the least bias, while the Reisner1 scheme has the largest bias in the reflectivity comparison. It appears more challenging for the model to replicate the scattering signatures obtained by the passive sensor (TMI). Despite the common problem of excessive scattering in the WCFR (stratiform precipitation) region in every simulation, the magnitude of the scattering maximum seems better represented in the Reisner2 scheme. The different types of precipitation ice, snow, and graupel are found to behave differently in the relationship of scattering versus reflectivity. The determinative role of the precipitation ice particle size distribution (intercept parameters) is extensively discussed through sensitivity tests and a single-layer radiative transfer model.
Source of Gravity Waves within a Vortex-Dipole Jet Revealed by a Linear Model
Authors: Wang Shuguang , Zhang Fuqing
Published: February 2010

This study develops a linear numerical model to address the source mechanism of the gravity waves generated within a vortex dipole simulated in a fully nonlinear nonhydrostatic mesoscale model. The background flow for this linear model is obtained from potential vorticity inversion constrained by the nonlinear balance equation. The forcing imposed in the linear model is derived from an imbalance in the large-scale flow—that is, the forcing or imbalance in the vorticity, divergence, and thermodynamic equations, respectively. The response from the sum of these imbalanced forcings obtained from the linear dynamics shows well-defined gravity wave signals, which compare reasonably well in terms of location, phase, and amplitude with the gravity waves simulated in a fully nonlinear nonhydrostatic mesoscale model. It is found that the vorticity forcing, largely due to the advection of balanced relative vorticity, is the leading contributor to the gravity waves in the exit region of the vortex-dipole jet.
Precipitation in Boreal Summer Simulated by a GCM with Two Convective Parameterization Schemes: Implications of the Intraseasonal Oscillation for Dynamic Seasonal Prediction
Authors: Park Suhee , Hong Song-You , Byun Young-Hwa
Published: February 2010

In this paper, the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) and its possible link to dynamical seasonal predictability within a general circulation model framework is investigated. Two experiments with different convection scheme algorithms, namely, the simplified Arakawa–Schubert (SAS) and the relaxed Arakawa–Schubert (RAS) convection algorithms, were designed to compare seasonal simulations from 1979 to 2002 on a seasonal model intercomparison project (SMIP)-type simulation test bed. Furthermore, the wave characteristics (wave intensity, period, and propagation) of the simulated ISO signal provided by the model with two different convection schemes for extended boreal summers from 1997 to 2004 were compared to the observational ISO signal. Precipitation in the boreal summer was fairly well simulated by the model irrespective of the convection scheme used, but the RAS run outperformed the SAS run with respect to tabulated skill scores. Decomposition of the interannual variability of boreal summer precipitation based on observations and model results demonstrates that the seasonal predictability of precipitation is dominated by the intraseasonal component over the warm pool area and the SST-forced signal over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, implying that the seasonal mean anomalies are more predictable under active ISO conditions as well as strong ENSO conditions. Comparison of the ISO simulations with the observations revealed that the main features, such as the intensity of precipitation variance in the intraseasonal time scale and the evolution of propagating ISOs, were reproduced fairly well by the model; however, the wave characteristics associated with the ISO signals were better captured by the experiment with the RAS scheme than the SAS scheme. This study further suggests that accurate simulation of the ISO can improve the seasonal predictability of dynamical seasonal prediction systems.
Quantifying the Contributions of Tidal Straining and Gravitational Circulation to Residual Circulation in Periodically Stratified Tidal Estuaries
Authors: Burchard Hans , Hetland Robert D.
Published: February 2010

This numerical modeling study quantifies for the first time the contribution of various processes to estuarine circulation in periodically stratified tidal flow under the impact of a constant horizontal buoyancy gradient. The one-dimensional water column equations with periodic forcing are first cast into nondimensional form, resulting in a multidimensional parameter space spanned by the modified inverse Strouhal number and the modified horizontal Richardson number, as well as relative wind speed and wind direction and the residual runoff. The along-tide momentum equation is then solved for the tidal-mean velocity profile in such a way that it is equated to the sum of the contributions of tidal straining (resulting from the temporal correlation between eddy viscosity and vertical shear), gravitational circulation (resulting from the depth-varying forcing by a constant horizontal buoyancy gradient), wind straining, and depth-mean residual flow (resulting from net freshwater runoff). This definition of tidal straining does not only account for tidal asymmetries resulting from horizontal buoyancy gradients but also from wind straining and residual runoff. For constant eddy viscosity, the well-known estuarine circulation analytical solution with polynomial residual profiles is directly obtained. For vertically parabolic and constant-in-time eddy viscosity, a new analytic solution with logarithmic residual profiles is found, showing that the intensity of the gravitational circulation scales with the horizontal Richardson number. For scenarios with realistic spatially and temporally varying eddy viscosity, a numerical water column model equipped with a state-of-the-art two-equation turbulence closure model is applied to quantify the individual contributions of the various processes to estuarine circulation. The fundamental outcome of this study is that, for irrotational flow with periodic stratification and without wind forcing and residual runoff, the tidal straining is responsible for about two-thirds and gravitational circulation is responsible for about one-third of the estuarine circulation, proportionally dependent on the horizontal Richardson number, and weakly dependent on the Strouhal number. This new and robust result confirms earlier estimates by H. Burchard and H. Baumert, who suggested that tidal straining is the major generation mechanism for estuarine turbidity maxima. However, a sensitivity analysis of the model results to details of the turbulence closure model shows some uncertainty with respect to the parameterization of sheared convection during flood. Increasing down-estuary wind straining and residual runoff reduce the quantitative contribution of tidal straining. For relatively small horizontal Richardson numbers, the tidal straining contribution to estuarine circulation may even be reversed by down-estuary wind straining.
The Impact of Spume Droplets and Wave Stress Parameterizations on Simulated Near-Surface Maritime Wind and Temperature
Authors: Innocentini Valdir , Gonçalves Iury Angelo
Published: February 2010

The influence of ocean gravity waves on the wind and temperature above the surface is investigated using a one-dimensional boundary layer model. The effect of the wave-induced stress is evaluated using three parameterizations: wave age (WaAg), wave steepness (WaSt), and wind action on the wave spectrum (WiAc). It is found that while the WaAg is more effective in reducing the wind for young waves, in the WaSt approach the maximum reduction is for old waves. On the other hand, the WiAc is very sensitive to the energy present in high frequencies corresponding to periods less than 2 s, which are found in both young and mature spectra. Since observations show that most of the wave stress is due to the small-period wave energy, in this aspect the WaSt parameterization is not recommended; WaAg is not as accurate; and thus WiAc is the best among the three, although its computational cost is the highest.

The droplet load contribution to the total surface stress can be neglected for the droplet spectrum produced by 10-m wind speeds up to 15 m s−1, but its importance increases with the speed and its magnitude becomes about ⅕ of the total stress for wind speed ∼30 m s−1.

Concerning the latent and sensible heat fluxes accompanying the production of spume droplets by waves, a feasible microphysical formulation for operational use in weather forecasting models is proposed. The droplet spectrum is assumed to be a product of two functions, one depending on the windsea Reynolds number and the other on the droplet radius spectrum. The bulk effect of the latter is analytically evaluated and stored in a table as a function of air temperature Ta, relative humidity R%, and significant wave height Hs. In numerical experiments with initial sea surface temperature 5 K higher than the air surface, latent and sensible heat contributions to the air temperature are computed as a function of the wave spectra. The launched droplet spectrum (which increases the air temperature due to sensible heat) and the relative humidity (which controls the cooling due to the droplet evaporation) define the heat budget and the air temperature evolution. Although in these experiments the sea temperature is much higher than the air temperature, the results show a noticeable dominance of the evaporative cooling in the lower atmosphere mainly for smaller significant wave height. Some air warming is noticeable only from a threshold around Hs ≥ 5 m.
Evaluation of a Dynamical Basis for Advance Forecasting of the Date of Onset of Monsoon Rainfall over India
Authors: Goswami P. , Gouda K. C.
Published: February 2010

The onset of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) represents one of the most dramatic transitions in the regional circulation pattern. The onset also marks the beginning of the main rainy season for India; advanced and accurate forecast of the date of the onset of monsoon (DOM) thus has application in many sectors. Although the standard deviation (σ) in DOM over the past hundred years is only 7 days, nearly 50% of the cases show large (>1σ) deviations; forecasting of DOM, especially for the extreme years is thus nontrivial and is rarely attempted because of the poor skill of most GCMs in the long-range prediction of daily ISM rainfall. A primary cause for the poor skill in forecasting parameters like rainfall appears to be the loss of predictability due to noise introduced by local synoptic processes. However, sharp transitions in the regional circulation pattern and associated rainfall, which are likely to be less affected by synoptic noise, may have higher predictability, somewhat similar to the way that monthly mean parameters are more predictable. This premise is explored for advanced forecasting of the onset of ISM over Kerala, India, and it is shown that significant skill is possible in advanced forecasting of DOM. A general circulation model (GCM) with a special feature, variable resolution, and an objective debiasing of daily rainfall forecast, is used to meet the special requirements of forecasting DOM. Based on a set of objective and validated criteria, hindcasts of DOM are generated in a complete operational setting from a five-member ensemble for each year for the period 1980–2003. The hindcasts are evaluated in terms of a number of parameters; as well as against a climatological forecast (null hypothesis), for 70% of the forecasts, the mean absolute error is less than that of the climatological forecasts. Furthermore, in contrast to the climate forecasts, these forecasts capture 7 out of 9 large (>1σ in observation) departures from the mean within the mean error, which implies high skill. Implications of the results for predicting certain weather and climate processes are discussed.
Warm Core Structures in Organized Cloud Clusters Developing or Not Developing into Tropical Storms Observed by the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit
Authors: Bessho Kotaro , Nakazawa Tetsuo , Nishimura Shuji , Kato Koji
Published: February 2010

The temperature profiles of organized cloud clusters developing or not developing (nondeveloping) into tropical storms (TSs; maximum surface wind >34 kt) over the western North Pacific in 2004 were investigated using Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) observations in combination with the independently created early stage Dvorak analysis. Typical temperature profiles of the developing and nondeveloping cloud clusters were compared. From this comparison, positive upper-troposphere temperature anomalies were found in both cluster types; however, the spatial extent of the temperature anomalies for the developing cloud clusters was larger than those of the nondeveloping cloud clusters. Statistical analysis was performed on the temperature anomalies near the center of all clusters retrieved from AMSU observational data. Findings indicate that the area-average temperature anomalies increased along with the intensity of the clusters indicated by the Dvorak T-number classification. Using time series analysis of upper-level temperature anomalies associated with these cloud clusters, a definition of warm core structures showing the temperature anomaly greater than a threshold (WCT) was created. WCT exists when the area averaged temperature anomaly exceeds 0.9 K. Using this definition, almost 70% of the cloud clusters that had WCTs later became TSs, while 85% of those that did not have WCTs eventually dissipated without being classified as a TS. For the WCT clusters that developed into TSs, the lead time from the detection of their AMSU-based WCT to their classification as TSs was 27.7 h. These results indicate that there is a good possibility that the detection and forecasting of tropical cyclone formation, particularly those storms that later may become classified as TSs, will be improved using temperature anomalies derived from AMSU data.
Evolutionary Optimization of an Ice Accretion Forecasting System
Authors: Pytlak Pawel , Musilek Petr , Lozowski Edward , Arnold Dan
Published: February 2010

The ability to model and forecast accretion of ice on structures is very important for many industrial sectors. For example, studies conducted by the power transmission industry indicate that the majority of failures are caused by icing on overhead conductors and other components of power networks. This paper presents an extension to the ice accretion forecasting system (IAFS) that is comprised of a numerical weather prediction model, a precipitation-type algorithm, and an ice accretion model. To optimize the performance of IAFS, the parameters of the precipitation-type algorithm are estimated using a genetic algorithm. The system is developed by hindcasting a well-documented freezing-rain event and calibrated using four additional ice storms. Subsequently, the system is tested using three independent storms. The results show a significant improvement in consistency, accuracy, and skill of IAFS. The methodology described in this contribution is not limited to ice accretion modeling—it provides a general approach for setting operational parameters of data-processing algorithms to achieve interoperability of numerical weather prediction models with add-on applications based on empirical observations.
A Two-Season Impact Study of the WindSat Surface Wind Retrievals in the NCEP Global Data Assimilation System
Authors: Bi Li , Jung James A. , Morgan Michael C. , Le Marshall John F.
Published: February 2010

A two-season observing system experiment (OSE) was used to quantify the impacts of assimilating the WindSat surface winds product developed by the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL). The impacts of assimilating these surface winds were assessed by comparing the forecast results through 168 h for the months of October 2006 and March 2007. The National Centers for Environmental Prediction’s (NCEP) Global Data Assimilation/Global Forecast System (GDAS/GFS) was used, at a resolution of T382-64 layers, as the assimilation system and forecast model for these experiments.

A control simulation utilizing all the data types assimilated in the operational GDAS was compared to an experimental simulation that added the WindSat surface winds. Quality control procedures required to assimilate the surface winds are discussed. Anomaly correlations (ACs) of geopotential heights at 1000 and 500 hPa were evaluated for the control and experiment during both seasons. The geographical distribution of the forecast impacts (FIs) on the wind field and temperature fields at 10-m height and 500 hPa is also discussed.

The results of this study show that assimilating the surface wind retrievals from the WindSat satellite improve the NCEP GFS wind and temperature forecasts. A positive FI, which suggests that the error growth of the experiment is slower than the control, has been realized in the NCEP GDAS/GFS wind and temperature forecasts through 24 h. The WindSat experiment AC scores are similar to the control simulation AC scores until the day 6 forecasts, when the improvements in the WindSat experiment become greater for both seasons and in most of the cases.
Policy Responses to the Collapse of the Financial Sector: Introduction
Authors: Barrell Ray
Published: February 2010

The downturn in global economic activity that started in 2008 was turned into a major recession after the failure of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. It appears that world output fell by more than 1 per cent in 2009, and OECD output probably fell by around 3½ per cent. The effects on output were more marked in the Euro Area and the UK than they were in the US or Canada, which partly reflects the policy responses chosen by Treasuries and Central Banks. The financial crisis that drove the recession affected banks in the US, the UK, the Euro Area and the rest of Europe rather more than it did those in Canada, Australia and Japan. However, recessions have been common, with only Australia and Poland appearing to avoid them. The financial crisis led rapidly to a freezing of trade credit, which caused world trade to decline very sharply at the beginning of 2009. The financial crisis also led to an increase in risk premia in investment decision-making and hence to a decline in the equilibrium capital output ratio, which caused a sharp reduction in the demand for capital goods. Combined with credit rationing effects for firms needing access to borrowing, this induced a collapse in investment. Trade channels made the crisis global, as did movements in exchange rates. Interest rates were cut sharply in the US, Europe and Japan, and approached levels seen in Japan for the previous decade. As a result the yen appreciated strongly, and the combination of the effects of this appreciation on competitiveness and the decline in investment goods trade meant that Japan suffered worse than most other countries, at least in the short term.
Prospects for the UK Economy
Authors: Kirby Simon , Barrell Ray , Foley-Fisher Nathan
Published: February 2010

The preliminary estimate of GDP confirms that the UK economy finally stopped contracting in the fourth quarter of 2009, bringing to an end six quarters of continuous contraction (figure 1) but 0.1 per cent growth is disappointing. The estimate suggested that the economy contracted by 4.8 per cent in 2009. Growth was driven by the distribution and government sectors. The main contributors from the distribution sector were the retail and motor trades. This is consistent with the impact of the cut in the standard rate of VAT and the car scrappage scheme, both of which should have brought durables purchases forward into the last quarter of 2009. It also highlights the risk that, as the fiscal stimulus ends, the UK economy could stall and possibly even contract for a quarter or two. As figure 1 shows, we do not expect this to happen. We expect growth of 1.1 per cent per annum this year; stronger growth is inconsistent with a household sector undergoing a period of retrenchment and increased savings. Contributions to economic growth are expected to be the result of the inventory cycle and the influence of net trade.
Macroprudential Regulation — The Missing Policy Pillar
Authors: Davis E. Philip , Karim Dilruba
Published: February 2010

The recent Sub-Prime crisis has prompted a close focus on the causes of financial instability as well as the issue of whether it can be prevented. There is a growing realisation that the Sub-Prime crisis, although having some important unique features, also had a number of generic aspects in common with earlier financial crises, of which a large number have been seen in recent decades. Accordingly, the crisis has prompted a debate about macroprudential policy, which focuses on the financial system as a whole, treating aggregate risk as endogenous with regard to collective behaviour of institutions. Our survey shows that a great deal of progress has been made in ‘macroprudential surveillance’ and related research on causes and predictors of crises. Much less progress has been made in ‘macroprudential regulation’, the design and implementation of policies to prevent or mitigate threatened crises.
Is a Less Pro-Cyclical Financial System an Achievable Goal?
Authors: Goodhart Charles
Published: February 2010

Banking and finance are inherently pro-cyclical, a condition exacerbated by a combination of Basel II and mark-to-market accounting. But these latter measures have many advantages, so the need is to devise other counter-cyclical macro-prudential policies. This fragility was further enhanced by a decline in bank liquidity (reliance on wholesale funding) and a shift in govenance from partnerships to limited liability public companies. Some commentators have seen the solution to such pro-cyclicality in the guise of direct constraints on bank activity, such as the promotion of ‘narrow banking’ or limits on bank size. While there are arguments for toughening regulation as systemic risk increases, direct constraints are simplistic; more sensible ideas involve the adoption of better designed macro-prudential regulation, perhaps with some version of banking self-insurance. Quite what the future holds for bank regulation remains, however, to be decided.
Introduction: New Perspectives on Public Services in Early Modern Europe
Authors: van der Heijden Manon
Published: February 2010

This article introduces a special issue that explores public services in early modern Europe. It advocates a broad definition of early modern public services: all public facilities provided by (semi-) governments, churches, religious organizations, civic institutions, and individual citizens. Such a definition is more appropriate because most late medieval and early modern towns were civil societies in which services were provided and financed by myriad agencies, institutions, corporations, and individuals who were part of the city. Early modern public services were thus shaped and formed by conceptions of common good, citizenship, and urban community. Such characteristics were by no means static. Reallocations of facilities in premodern cities resulted from a complex set of demographic, economic, social, political, and personal causes. Although significant changes in the system of provisioning occurred during the early modern period, such alterations were always firmly rooted in traditional conceptions of how the common interest should be best served.
“All Good Rule of the Citee”: Sanitation and Civic Government in England, 1400—1600
Authors: Jørgensen Dolly
Published: February 2010

This article examines how providing one basic city service—sanitation—influenced civic governmental structures from 1400 to 1600 in two of England’s largest provincial cities, Norwich and Coventry, and how those changes meshed with concepts of good rule. Although sanitation services were neither the most costly nor the highest profile activity of city councils, they can be a window into the evolution of governmental structures during the early phase of city rule. The period witnessed an increasing reliance on a myriad of officials to provide services, but this transition was not straightforward. City councils grappled with how to allocate responsibility for sanitation duties among civic officials, and the assignment of responsibility shifted often over the period. In general, the trend was to allocate responsibility closer and closer to the physical problem— that is, movement from the mayor as overseer to local inspectors.
The Development of Police Forces in Urban Europe in the Eighteenth Century
Authors: Denys Catherine
Published: February 2010

Recent years have seen the renewal of historiography concerning the police in the early modern period. Specialists no longer receive the figure of cities without police forces before the creation of modern institutions. Moreover, recent research has demonstrated convergence of a great movement of reflection with reforms of the police forces and organizations in European towns, especially in the second half of the eighteenth century. Two tendencies illustrate this evolution: first, the general decline of the institutions of civic police forces and their replacement by professional forces and, second, the professionalization of municipal police forces. But these reforms of the police force could also be realized via use of traditional mechanisms of community policing. In several cities, inhabitants of the district or neighborhood were again in charge of functions of “modern” policing. Although it is premature to present a global synthesis, various European examples demonstrate that there is no linear historical process leading directly from community or civic policing to a state police force while bypassing the municipal police force. The historical processes of the modernization of the police in early modern Europe are more complex.
Public Services in Early Modern European Towns: An Agenda for Further Research
Authors: Davids Karel
Published: February 2010

Starting with a set of key questions formulated by Walter Prevenier in 1984, this article proposes an agenda for future research on urban public services in early modern European towns. The author suggests, first of all, a shift in research strategy toward a greater emphasis on actor-oriented analysis and a systematic reconstruction of underlying ideas and intentions of actors in shaping public services. Second, he points out the need for comparative research on variations in public services in different zones of state formation, urban fiscal matters, and town—country relations within Europe and on continuity and change in “repertoires” of practices in urban provisions through time. Finally, he argues that historians should also address the grand question in what respect, how, and why the long-term evolution of urban public services was affected by “great transformations” such as the Reformation, Enlightenment, the French Revolution, and the Industrial Revolution. The historiographies of public services in the early modern and modern periods could thus be more closely connected as well.
Undergraduate training in palliative medicine: is more necessarily better?
Authors: Mason Stephen R , Ellershaw John E
Published: February 2010

The General Medical Council’s call to modernize medical education prompted the University of Liverpool Medical School to develop a new undergraduate programme, integrating palliative medicine as ‘core’ curricula. Following successful piloting, the palliative medicine training programme was further developed and expanded. This paper examines whether the additional investment produces improved outcomes. In 1999, fourth year undergraduate medical students (Cohort 1, n = 217) undertook a 2-week pilot education programme in palliative medicine. Subsequently, the training programme was refined and extended, incorporating advanced communication skills training, an ethics project and individual case presentations (Cohort 2, n = 443). Congruent with the study’s theoretical driver of self-efficacy, both cohorts were surveyed pre- and post-programme with validated measures of: (i) self-efficacy in palliative care scale; (ii) thanatophobia scale. No significant differences between cohorts’ pre-programme scores were identified. Within each cohort, statistically and educationally significant post-education improvements were recorded in both scales. Further post-education analysis indicated that the extended programme produces significantly greater improvements in all domains of the self-efficacy in palliative care scale (communication, t =—7.28, patient management, t =—5.96, multidisciplinary team-working t =—3.77 at p < 0.000), but not thanatophobia. Although improvements were recorded in both cohorts, participation in the extended education programme resulted in further statistically significant gains. Interpreted through the theoretical model employed, improved self-efficacy and outcome expectancies will result in behavioural change that leads to improved practice and better patient care.
Everyday and prospective memory deficits in ecstasy/polydrug users
Authors: Hadjiefthyvoulou Florentia , Fisk John E , Montgomery Catharine , Bridges Nikola
Published: February 2010

The impact of ecstasy/polydrug use on real-world memory (i.e. everyday memory, cognitive failures and prospective memory [PM]) was investigated in a sample of 42 ecstasy/polydrug users and 31 non-ecstasy users. Laboratory-based PM tasks were administered along with self-reported measures of PM to test whether any ecstasy/polydrug-related impairment on the different aspects of PM was present. Self-reported measures of everyday memory and cognitive failures were also administered. Ecstasy/polydrug associated deficits were observed on both laboratory and self-reported measures of PM and everyday memory. The present study extends previous research by demonstrating that deficits in PM are real and cannot be simply attributed to self-misperceptions. The deficits observed reflect some general capacity underpinning both time- and event-based PM contexts and are not task specific. Among this group of ecstasy/polydrug users recreational use of cocaine was also prominently associated with PM deficits. Further research might explore the differential effects of individual illicit drugs on real-world memory.
Useful Conservation Sums in Molecular Dynamics and Atomistics
Authors: Kim Saeja O. , Earmme Yoon Y. , Kim Kyung-Suk
Published: February 2010

Configuration forces of an arbitrary molecular dynamics domain are derived in which the energetic characteristics are approximated as those of a non-local gradient elastic field. The configuration forces include not only the effects of the strain gradients but also those of micro-polar energetics. The useful sums represent approximate expressions of translational, expansional and rotational configuration forces. Particular homogenization of the field makes the continuum limits of the sums approximately obey configurational transformation symmetries to satisfy Noether’s theorem, and to converge to generalized J integral for static non-local elastic fields of homogeneous media; however, the non-local M and L integrals do not have corresponding conservation laws. Interpolation and projection schemes of a molecular dynamics or atomistics system onto a system of continuum motions and energetics are also derived for elastic as well as non-elastic cases.
Effectiveness of special nursery provision for children with autism spectrum disorders
Authors: Reed Phil , Osborne Lisa A. , Corness Mark
Published: February 2010

The effectiveness of three local authority early teaching interventions for children with autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) was studied. Thirty-three children (2:6 to 4:0 years old) received one of three early teaching interventions: a 1:1 home-based programme, and two different forms of special nursery placement. Measures from the Psycho-Educational Profile, British Abilities Scale, and Vineland Adaptive Behavior Scales were taken over a 10 month period. The study showed moderate effect sizes for improvements in all scales for children attending a generalized special nursery placement, and for those attending a special nursery placement solely for children with ASDs. Children receiving a home-based 1:1 programme with similar intervention hours showed moderate effect sizes for the PEP and BAS but not for the VABS. These data show that special nursery placements can offer benefits to children with ASDs, especially in the area of adaptive behavioural functioning.