OPEN BALKANS AND THE CONSPIRACY FOR SUSTAINABLE INSECURITY
Authors: Mishkovska Maja 
Published: February 2024

The war in Ukraine and the consequences of the war impose the fear that there is a risk that the countries of the Western Balkans will become a second front that Russia will open in Europe. The flared up conflict is a new "red" dividing line that awakens old bloody wounds in the Balkan countries. The consequences of the war in Ukraine are also felt in Europe and especially in the Western Balkan region because there were or are operational plans that if Russia succeeds in defeating Ukraine, the war can spill over the gates, into the Western Balkan region which also could be the next point of destabilization on European soil, which would represent a further expansion of Russian influence. The diplomatic priorities of the international community for the region include inclusive democracy, the rule of law, freedom of public opinion, freedom of the media, fight against corruption, mutual recognition of countries, reduction of trade barriers. The easily vulnerable region of the Western Balkans encouraged Western diplomats to increase activities and initiatives, negotiations, agreements.Will the Western Balkans once again become a new field of serious conflicts, given the existing ethnic tensions? Will the attention of the USA and the EU be completely focused on the reconstruction of Ukraine, and this part of the Old Continent will be left at the mercy and mercy? Political initiatives and numerous actions on a political, security and defense plan signal the generation of additional mistrust towards these countries. Especially since the international community is constantly active and engaged in countless diplomatic talks and negotiations followed by the signing of various agreements, while, on the other hand, the inclusion in the European structures hangs in the clouds, and the inclusion in the largest defense-security organization - NATO is partially resolved. Peace seems to be working, but it is on glass legs.If we analyze the strategic concepts of NATO from 1991, 1999 and 2010 in terms of security issues, certain risks to allied security are still present in terms of territorial disputes and ethnic conflicts or intolerances that have a potential initial capsule for a conflict of wider aspects. As a fundamental instrument for NATO's intervention, crisis management is one of NATO's basic tasks, for which it uses an appropriate combination of political and military tools for crisis management in an increasingly complex security environment. NATO is an international organization that includes the implementation of a wide range of operations for the prevention and management of crises that can be of a political, military or humanitarian nature, and can be the result of a natural disaster or as a result of technological, chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear (CBRN) disruptions. NATO is transforming from a defense to a security organization including not only the deployment of troops, but a whole range of military and civilian experts engaged through civil-military coordination and cooperation. The new strategic concept of the Alliance was prompted as a result of the interventions in Bosnia and Herzegovina in 1995 and the operation of the allied forces in Kosovo in 1999 with the aim of ending the human suffering and conflicts caused by the conflicts that took place in the areas of the Western Balkans, and which later resulted in the signing of numerous resolutions and agreements. The question of whether and to what extent all those agreements will be respected remains open.However, the 2010 strategic concept promotes Euro-Atlantic security by strengthening partnerships with the Balkan countries through collective defense, crisis management and cooperative security. At the same time, NATO monitors the region and in possible early signs of crisis, which by using various instruments should stabilize the regions safety, and ensures and guarantees peace.