Conquering Mpox: A Comprehensive Public Health Strategy for Addressing Mpox and Poxvirus Infections in Nigeria – Understanding Global Trends, Transmission Dynamics, and Effective Prevention and Control Measures in Nigeria. (Preprint)
Authors: Elemuwa Christopher Ononiwu , Raimi Morufu Olalekan , Ainu Muyi , Adias Teddy Charles , Ufuoma Rotifa Stella , Elemuwa Uchenna Geraldine , Oginifolunnia Okechukwu Christian , Rath Barbara A. , Obermeier Patrick E. 
Published: October 2024

BACKGROUND

The growing global emphasis on combating infectious diseases has highlighted the need for detailed analyses of outbreak patterns over time. Mpox, formerly known as monkeypox, remains a critical public health challenge in Nigeria, with significant outbreaks occurring between 2017 and 2024. Understanding the trends in Mpox cases, deaths, and geographical spread provides valuable insights into the effectiveness of public health interventions, regional disparities, and demographic vulnerabilities. These findings are essential for informing ongoing and future efforts to mitigate Mpox outbreaks and improve national outbreak preparedness.

OBJECTIVE

This study aims to analyze the progression of Mpox outbreaks in Nigeria, focusing on trends in confirmed and suspected cases, deaths, and geographic distribution across states from 2017 to 2024. Additionally, the study explores changes in age and gender-specific vulnerabilities, evaluates the impact of public health interventions, and assesses the reduction in disease burden between 2022 and 2024.

METHODS

A multi-faceted approach was employed, leveraging epidemiological data on Mpox cases from 2017 to 2024. Year-on-year comparisons of confirmed and suspected cases, fatalities, and their geographical distribution were performed to identify trends in disease progression and containment. Geospatial mapping techniques were used to examine regional disparities in Mpox case distribution. Demographic analysis explored shifts in age and gender vulnerabilities, while public health intervention outcomes were assessed based on reductions in cases and geographic spread.

RESULTS

The comparative analysis from 2017 to 2024 revealed a significant 47% reduction in confirmed Mpox cases between 2023 and 2024, coupled with a notable decrease in both fatalities and geographic spread. Age-based analysis indicated a decline in disease vulnerability across younger age groups, while middle-aged males continued to show a relatively higher infection rate. A dramatic surge in cases occurred in 2022, with 762 confirmed cases, representing the peak of the outbreak. However, cases dropped significantly to 98 in 2023 and further to 40 in 2024, highlighting the success of recent public health interventions. Regional disparities remained evident, with certain states consistently showing higher case burdens, while others experienced reductions in cases, suggesting varied efficacy of local interventions. Geospatial analysis pinpointed persistent hotspots from 2017 to 2022, but a more contained spread was observed in 2023 and 2024. Additionally, gender analysis showed a consistent male predominance in cases across most age groups, with disparities becoming more pronounced in younger populations.

CONCLUSIONS

The sharp reduction in Mpox cases and geographical spread from 2022 to 2024 reflects the positive impact of targeted public health interventions, including vaccination and containment strategies. However, persistent regional and gender disparities suggest that certain populations remain at higher risk, warranting continued monitoring and tailored interventions. Sustained efforts are necessary to prevent future outbreaks, maintain the progress achieved in reducing Mpox cases, and address the factors contributing to these disparities. To further reduce Mpox transmission and prevent future outbreaks, it is essential to strengthen disease surveillance systems in regions identified as consistent hotspots, ensuring rapid detection and response. Public health interventions should be tailored to address gender disparities, particularly the higher infection rates observed among males, while expanding vaccination campaigns and health education initiatives in high-burden areas. Additionally, targeted efforts must investigate the behavioral and biological factors contributing to male vulnerability, especially among younger populations. Sustained focus on these strategies will be critical to maintaining the progress achieved and closing the gaps in disease control. This study provides a comprehensive, multi-year analysis of Mpox outbreaks in Nigeria, offering critical insights into the effectiveness of public health interventions, regional disparities, and demographic trends. The findings underscore the importance of geospatial data in understanding disease distribution and controlling infectious outbreaks. The significant case reduction from 2022 to 2024 highlights the success of ongoing public health measures, while also emphasizing the need for continuous monitoring and adaptive strategies to maintain and further improve disease control.