Estimation of fossil-fuel CO2 emissions using satellite measurements of "proxy" species
Authors: Konovalov Igor B. , Berezin Evgeny V. , Ciais Philippe , Broquet Grégoire , Zhuravlev Ruslan B. , Janssens-Maenhout Greet 
Published: April 2016

Abstract. Fossil fuel (FF) burning releases carbon dioxide (CO2) together with many other chemical species, some of which, such as, e.g., nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and carbon monoxide (CO), are routinely monitored from space. This study examines the feasibility of estimation of FF CO2 emissions from large industrial regions by using NO2 and CO column retrievals from satellite measurements in combination with simulations by a mesoscale chemistry transport model (CTM). To this end, an inverse modeling method is developed that allows estimating FF CO2 emissions from different sectors of the economy, as well as the total CO2 emissions, in a given region. The key steps of the method are (1) inferring "top-down" estimates of the regional budget of anthropogenic emissions of proxy species (that is, NOx and CO in the case considered) from satellite measurements without using formal a priori constraints on these budgets, (2) application of emission factors (the NOx-to-CO2 and CO-to-CO2 emission ratios in each sector) that relate FF CO2 emissions to the emissions of the proxy species and are evaluated by using data of "bottom-up" emission inventories, (3) cross-validation and optimal combination of the estimates of CO2 emission budgets derived from measurements of the different proxy species. Uncertainties in the top-down estimates of the emissions of the proxy species are evaluated and systematic differences between the measured and simulated data are taken into account by using original robust techniques validated with synthetic data. To examine the potential of the method, it was applied to the budget of emissions for a western European region including 12 countries by using NO2 and CO column amounts retrieved from, respectively, the OMI and IASI satellite measurements and simulated by the CHIMERE mesoscale CTM, along with the emission conversion factors based on the EDGAR v4.2 emission inventory. The analysis was focused on evaluation of the uncertainty levels for the "top-down" NOx and CO emission estimates and "hybrid" estimates (that is, those based on both atmospheric measurements of a given proxy species and respective "bottom-up" emission inventory data) of FF CO2 emissions, as well as on examining consistency between the FF СO2 emission estimates derived from measurements of the different proxy species. It is found that NO2 measurements can provide much stronger constraints to the total annual FF CO2 emissions in the study region than CO measurements, the accuracy of the NO2-measurement-based CO2 emission estimate being mostly limited by the uncertainty in the top-down NOx emission estimate. Nonetheless, CO measurements are also found to be useful as they provide additional constraints to CO2 emissions and enable evaluation of the hybrid FF CO2 emission estimates obtained from NO2 measurements. Our most reliable estimate for the total annual FF CO2 emissions in the study region in 2008 (2.71±0.30 Pg CO2) is found to be about 11 % and 5 % lower than the respective estimates based on the EDGAR v.4.2 (3.03 Pg CO2) and CDIAC (2.86 Pg CO2) emission inventories, with the difference between our estimate and the CDIAC inventory data being not statistically significant. In general, the results of this study indicate that the proposed method has a potential to become a useful tool for identification of possible biases and/or inconsistencies in the bottom-up emission inventory data regarding CO2, NOx and CO emissions from fossil fuel burning in different regions of the world.