bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Designing tailorable software systems with the users’ participation
Authors: Neris Vânia Paula de Almeida , Baranauskas M. Cecília C.
Published: April 2012

There are several barriers that prevent Brazilian citizen to access knowledge, including the way in which computational technology is presented considering the diversity of interaction skills in our population. One approach for suiting the diverse and mutable interaction requirements is to tailor interfaces according to the users’ preferences or needs. Although literature regarding tailoring presents results with diverse foci, there has been a lack of works considering methods and techniques to support designers in their practice. This paper presents a practical approach to elicit and formalize the tailorable behavior making interactive systems more flexible. The elicitation of the different possible interfaces is performed with users’ participation and the tailorable behavior is formalized with a norm-based structure. A case study, in the context of an inclusive social network system, is described as well as the evaluation with final users.
Platelet Activation Profiles on TiO2: Effect of Ca2+ Binding to the Surface
Authors: Gupta Swati , Reviakine Ilya
Published: April 2012

Surface ion equilibrium is hypothesized to play an important role in defining the interactions between foreign materials and biological systems. In this study, we compare two surfaces with respect to their ability to activate adhering platelets. One is a commonly used implant material TiO2, which binds Ca2+, and the other one is glass, which does not. We show, that in the presence of Ca2+, TiO2 acts as an agonist, activating adhering platelets and causing the expression on their surface of two well-known activation markers, CD62P (P-selectin) and CD63. On the contrary, in the absence of Ca2+, platelets adhering on TiO2 express only one of the two markers, CD63. Platelets adhering on glass, as well as platelets challenged with soluble agonists in solution, express both markers independently of whether Ca2+ is present or not. The expression of CD62P and CD63 is indicative of the exocytosis of the so-called α- and dense granules, respectively. It is a normal response of platelets to activation. Differences in the expression profiles of these two markers point to differential regulation of the exocytosis of the two kinds of granules, confirming the recent notion that platelets can tune their microenvironment in a trigger-specific fashion.
Antiangiogenic and anticancer molecules in cartilage
Authors: Patra Debabrata , Sandell Linda J.
Published: April 2012

Cartilage is one of the very few naturally occurring avascular tissues where lack of angiogenesis is the guiding principle for its structure and function. This has attracted investigators who have sought to understand the biochemical basis for its avascular nature, hypothesising that it could be used in designing therapies for treating cancer and related malignancies in humans through antiangiogenic applications. Cartilage encompasses primarily a specialised extracellular matrix synthesised by chondrocytes that is both complex and unique as a result of the myriad molecules of which it is composed. Of these components, a few such as thrombospondin-1, chondromodulin-1, the type XVIII-derived endostatin, SPARC (secreted protein acidic and rich in cysteine) and the type II collagen-derived N-terminal propeptide (PIIBNP) have demonstrated antiangiogenic or antitumour properties in vitro and in vivo preclinical trials that involve several complicated mechanisms that are not completely understood. Thrombospondin-1, endostatin and the shark-cartilage-derived Neovastat preparation have also been investigated in human clinical trials to treat several different kinds of cancers, where, despite the tremendous success seen in preclinical trials, these molecules are yet to show success as anticancer agents. This review summarises the current state-of-the-art antiangiogenic characterisation of these molecules, highlights their most promising aspects and evaluates the future of these molecules in antiangiogenic applications.
The non-mortality of annuitants
Authors: Barnett H. A. R.
Published: April 2012

1.1. It is traditional for acknowledgments to appear at the end of a paper. However, in this instance the main acknowledgments are due to those who, by their inspiration, made the conception of the paper possible, and cannot be separated from the underlying ideas and the aims and objects, which usually appear near the beginning. I therefore start with a grateful acknowledgment to F. M. Redington whose remark, made in private, that he would love to know the causes from which annuitants do not die, ignited the first spark without which this paper could not have been written; to R. D. Clarke who, when he was Secretary of the Continuous Mortality Investigation Committee, indicated the names of the two life offices who might be able to supply the required information; and to J. H. Gunlake and D. F. Gilley who, in the early stages, provided the necessary encouragement and stimulus to get the project off the ground.
The gilt-edged market reformulated
Authors: Feldman K. S.
Published: April 2012

1.1. In this note it is argued that models of the gilt-edged market which are based on yield curves are unnecessarily restrictive and should not be expected to give a satisfactory statistical ‘fit’ in current conditions. The new model which is formulated relates market prices directly to the life and coupon without diverting into the computation of redemption yields. Indeed, it is suggested that the yield calculation destroys the inherent simplicity of the underlying equations—which follow from a simple assumption concerning the return from different portfolios. The method avoids the inconsistency inherent in the conventional analysis of discounting future investment proceeds at a uniform rate of interest when the yield curve itself implies that interest rates will vary in the future.
International studies in generation mortality
Authors: Cox P. R. , Scott W. F.
Published: April 2012

The two studies described below were made as part of a large-scale programme of official research into a series of topics relating to fertility, mortality and migration. The outcome of all this research (including that recorded below) will be published by the Government in due course but the manner and place of publication have not yet been decided. Although the present paper is announced under joint authorship, it is not a fully integrated effort: Part 1 was devised and written by the first-named contributor and Part 2 by the second. Nevertheless, their preparation took place over the same period of time and during that period steady contact was maintained between the authors by correspondence and meetings, and thus the work proceeded in parallel.
The education and examination of actuaries
Authors: Goddard P. R.
Published: April 2012

Every profession should be concerned with the problem of matching training and working practice. The problem is especially a vital one for the small but powerful actuarial profession seeking to adapt to significant changes.

This note gives a brief summary of my Ph.D. thesis, which was based on questionnaires concerning the training of actuaries, and also in § 7 makes reference to a more recent investigation.

A survey was designed and questionnaires despatched in 1973, in an attempt to discover the existing relationship between actuarial training and occupational practice, whether there was any shortcoming in this relationship and if so what might be needed to correct it. The response rate from the 236 actuaries who qualified for the Fellowship of the Institute of Actuaries in the four sets of examinations spanning the two calendar years 1972 and 1973 and who formed the test population was 81% (192 replies).
Assessing the solvency and financial strength of a general insurance company
Authors: Daykin C.D. , Bernstein G.D. , Coutts S.M. , Devitt E.R.F. , Hey G.B. , Reynolds D.I.W. , Smith P.D.
Published: April 2012

After reviewing some general issues concerning solvency and the problems associated with establishing the financial strength of a general insurance company using the traditional balance sheet concept, the authors put forward an emerging costs approach for examining the strength of a company. This enables the true nature of the assets and liabilities to be taken into account, including their essential variability. Simulation is suggested as a powerful tool for use in examining the financial strength of a company and in exploring the impact of alternative scenarios. A particular example of such a simulation model is then presented and used to explore the resilience of a company's financial position to variations in a wide variety of parameters. The model enables the user to quantify the probability that the assets will prove adequate to meet the liabilities with or without an assumption of continuing business. This in turn permits an appropriate asset margin to be assessed individually for any particular company in the light of the strategy that the company intends to follow. Some of the implications of this approach for the management and supervision of general insurance companies are explored. The suggestion is made that the effectiveness of statutory supervision based on the balance sheet and a crude solvency margin requirement is limited, since it cannot have proper regard to the risk profile of individual companies. More responsibility should be placed on an actuary or other suitably qualified professional individual to report on the overall financial strength of the company, both to management and to the supervisory authorities.
Control of unfunded and partially funded systems of payments
Authors: Taylor G. C.
Published: April 2012

The paper considers systems of payments which are not fully funded, i.e partially funded or fully unfunded. Generally, the objective is to be able to establish a premium formula which is consistent with long term planning as to e.g. a target rate of funding, limited variation in premiums from year to year, etc. The premium formulas considered are those which relate premiums to prior years' premiums, claims experience and accumulated funds. These questions are reviewed in Section 1 which suggests the use of control theory. Section 2 formulates and provides a formal solution to the problem.

Section 3 provides a couple of results which relate premiums to targeting of accumulated funds.

Subsequent sections consider the construction of premium formulas. It is emphasized that the intention is not to supply a definitive set of instructions as to how the premium formula might be constructed, but rather to illustrate some of the principles relevant to it.

In particular, two numerical examples are provided in § 6.2. Premium formulas are constructed which appear to respond reasonably satisfactorily to simulated claims experience.

It is found that accurate prediction of future claims escalation is crucial to the operation of formulas of the linear control theory type (§ 6.2.1). Brief comment on possible further research aimed at dealing with this aspect of the question is given in Section 7.
Some statistical aspects of the Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau's mortality investigations
Authors: Scott W. F.
Published: April 2012

This article discusses the formulae for the select and ultimate exposed-to-risk in the CMIB's mortality studies, and certain statistical aspects of these investigations. It is shown that there are difficulties in the traditional binomial approach to the distribution of deaths, particularly for select rates, and the use of the Poisson distribution, rather than the binomial, is advocated.
Reserving for deferred capital gains tax (an application of option pricing theory)
Authors: Sherris M.
Published: April 2012

This paper sets out a framework, based on option pricing theory, that can be used to assess the value of deferred unrealised capital gains tax. In the U.K. and Australia, capital gains tax is paid on realisation of assets and the basis for determining the tax allows for inflation indexation of the cost base of the asset. Capital gains tax payments under these circumstances are shown to resemble those of a complex option. A number of theoretical approaches to the valuation of this option are discussed in the paper.
The developing role of the Government Actuary's Department in the supervision of insurance
Authors: Daykin C. D.
Published: April 2012

Following a brief outline of the origins of the actuarial profession in the United Kingdom, the paper traces the involvement of actuaries in the supervision of insurance in the U.K., and recalls the origins and early development of actuaries in government. In 1919, the Government Actuary's Department (GAD) was formed, and the paper explores the developing role of GAD in the supervision of insurance and how insurance supervision has evolved into a close partnership between the actuarial profession and the supervisors.
Recent developments in the United Kingdom. National report for the United Kingdom to the 24th International Congress of Actuaries, Montreal, 31 May – 5 June 1992
Authors: McCutcheon J. J. , Shelley P. J.
Published: April 2012

The Report begins by discussing the origins of the actuarial profession in the United Kingdom and the recent growth in its size.

The aim of the Report is to describe the more significant recent developments which affect the actuarial profession in the U.K. These developments are discussed under the following headings:

Planning,

Education,

Life assurance,

Pensions,

General insurance,

Relationships with actuaries overseas,

Groupe Consultatif,

Mortality and sickness insurance statistics,

Investment indices.

Within each heading there is a discussion of current topics and, where appropriate, of possible future developments.
On the choice of bandwidth for kernel graduation
Authors: Gavin J. B. , Haberman S. , Verrall R. J.
Published: April 2012

This paper considers cross-validation as an objective and risk-based method for selecting the smoothing parameter in a non-parametric graduation. In addition, the relative merits of two kernel estimators are compared in the context of mortality graduation. Finally, it is well known in the statistical literature that the use of theoretically superior kernels is not as important as the choice of bandwidth. Our results support this conclusion, suggesting that the focus on such weights is misguided in the actuarial textbooks on moving weighted averages.
Valuation and corporate management in a non-life insurance company
Authors: Bride M. , Lomax M. W.
Published: April 2012

This paper explores the benefits and limitations of a valuation framework as a management tool within a general insurance operation. Two models are presented, one a model of the firm and the other an option valuation model, which together create a robust framework that enables management to analyse how different decisions would affect both the overall firm value and its distribution amongst investors. The model of the firm assists in understanding how key factors such as the momentum of a general insurance portfolio and the allocation of scarce resources affect the value of the firm. The second model, an option framework for corporate liabilities, highlights the critical distinction between the value of the firm and the value of investors' claims on the firm.
A comparison between the mortality of non-smoking and smoking assured lives in the United Kingdom
Authors: Renshaw A. E.
Published: April 2012

A method of graduation by mathematical formula is extended to cover the simultaneousgraduation of more than one comparable experience and is applied to the recent. U.K. mortality experience of smoking and non-smoking assured lives.
The phase of transition—an historical essay
Authors: Redington F. M.
Published: April 2012

In my 1981 paper ‘The flock and the sheep’ (J.I.A., 108,361) I explained that I had been writing a number of historical essays and that the paper was based on those which were about distribution of surplus. Some of the remaining essays fall naturally into a set under the general heading of valuation and it is these which have been combined into the present essay. It also includes something which has been on my conscience for a number of years—a critical examination in the light of history of my 1952 paper on the principles of valuation (J.I.A., 78, 286).
The improving accuracy of the basic data and the exposed-to-risk of the English life tables
Authors: Daw R. H.
Published: April 2012

1. The English Life Tables Nos. 8 to 13 are based on the population figures by age obtained at the successive censuses of England and Wales from 1911 to 1971 and the deaths recorded in the three calendar years centred on the census year. Over this 60-year period there have been changes in the information sought regarding age at census and death registration and improvements in the exposed-to-risk formula; these are summarized in Table 1.
The expectation of life and its relationship to mortality
Authors: Pollard J. H.
Published: April 2012

The complete expectation of life at birth ė0 is frequently used as a measure of the level of mortality of a population. It is also used for assessing trends in mortality and trends in mortality differentials. Although the relationship between mortality and expectation of life is essentially reciprocal, the exact connexion is rather more complicated, and becomes important when, for example, trends in differentials are analysed.

In this paper, the relationship between mortality and expectation of life is explored in some detail, and formulae are developed for analysing the effects of mortality changes on expectation of life, and trends in mortality differentials on ė0 differentials.

Unlike Keyfitz (1977), who concentrates on the proportional change in ė0 corresponding to equal proportional changes in mortality at all ages, we study the relationship between absolute changes in mortality, generally different at different ages, and the corresponding absolute change in ė0.

It is demonstrated that two populations may experience diminishing mortality differentials and at the same time widening ė0 differentials. Numerical examples are given using Australian data over the periods 1921–71 and 1971–79.

Although the formulae in the paper relate solely to the expectation of life at birth, the methods and formulae are readily adapted to expectations of life at other ages and indeed, temporary expectations.
An exploration of the immunization approach to provision for unit-linked policies with guarantees
Authors: Collins T. P.
Published: April 2012

1.1. This paper explores the possibility that a company which sells unit-linked policies with death and maturity benefit guarantees may follow an investment strategy which reduces the risks associated with them. It originated when the author was requested by the Institute to study papers on the subject by P. P. Boyle, M. J. Brennan and E. S. Schwartz of the University of British Columbia in Canada and also a paper presented to the Society of Actuaries in Ireland by J. C. Fagan.
Valuation of final-salary pension schemes
Authors: Colbran R. B.
Published: April 2012

1.1 On coming into pensions consultancy after many years in a life office I looked for an indication of current thinking on the valuation of funded pension schemes. Official guidance by the profession is confined to the 1969 booklet from the Institute and Faculty; the memorandum on professional conduct concerns itself with independence and how we present ourselves. The Institute's examination textbooks pass over the main objectives lightly and concentrate on detail. While there have been papers on many aspects of pensions, they all seem to skirt the fundamental principles of valuing final salary schemes.

1.2 This paper attempts to go some way to filling the gap. It provides an opportunity to review and discuss current practice. I have found it particularly illuminating to compare the way in which practice between the United Kingdom and North America diverges.
Outstanding claims provisions: a distribution-free statistical approach
Authors: Pollard J. H.
Published: April 2012

Various numerical procedures have been developed in recent years for estimating the provisions for outstanding claims of a general insurer. (See, for example, Benjamin, 1977, 234–66.) These procedures do not in general have a theoretical statistical basis, and consequently they do not provide information about the reliability of the resulting outstanding claims estimates. An exception is the complex procedure of Reid (1978).

It is not surprising that actuaries have been daunted in their quest for an appropriate statistical model: the claim process is very complicated, particularly for ‘long tail’ business. One has to consider the incident leading to a claim, the size of the resulting claim, the time to settlement, and the distribution of payments up to the time of settlement both by amount and epoch. There are also the additional complications of inflation and investment earnings on the provisions.

In this paper, a theory is developed in which the complications of the claim process are overcome by considering the joint distribution of payments for a single claim in successive development periods. The model is distribution-free in that it does not assume specific distributions for claim size, time to settlement, or payments prior to settlement by amount and epoch. The method requires that payments which have been made be expressed in ‘constant-dollar’ terms (i.e. adjusted for past inflation).
The individual risk model: a compound distribution
Authors: Verrall R. J.
Published: April 2012

The two approaches to modelling aggregate claims—the individual and the collective models—have been regarded as arising by considering a portfolio of policies in different ways. The individual risk model (IRM) is derived by considering the claims on individual policies and summing over all policies in the portfolio, while the collective risk model (CRM) is derived from the portfolio as a whole. This is sometimes held to be the main difference between the IRM and the CRM. In fact the IRM can be derived in exactly the same way as the CRM and can be regarded as a compound binomial distribution. This makes a unified treatment of risk models possible, simplifies the calculation of the mean and variance of the IRM, and facilitates the calculation of higher moments.
The measurement of investment risk
Authors: Clarkson R. S.
Published: April 2012

1.1 In the paper ‘Improving the Performance of Equity Portfolios’ by Clarkson and Plymen the authors concluded that Modern Portfolio Theory methods made no contribution whatever to improving the performance of equity portfolios and suggested that attention should be paid instead to the application of fundamental analysis, which—if carried out by skilled and experienced analysts—should lead to higher expected returns. The only practical application of techniques related to Modern Portfolio Theory appeared to be in the area of Index Funds, where it is desired to track the performance of a chosen index as closely as possible.
A state space representation of the chain ladder linear model
Authors: Verrall R. J.
Published: April 2012

In a recent paper, Kremer (1982) has shown how the classical chain ladder method for estimating outstanding claims on general insurance business is strongly related to a two-way analysis of variance. It can be argued that the estimation methods in a standard chain ladder analysis are inefficient from a statistical viewpoint and that an analysis of variance is more appropriate. Once the chain ladder method is identified with a standard statistical method, the well-known statistical theory can be used to the advantage of the claims reserver. For a further discussion of the use of main stream statistical theory applied to the least squares estimation of the linear model which is close to the chain ladder method, the reader is referred to Renshaw (1989).
Notes on the Financial Times–Actuaries United Kingdom Equity Share Indices in 1992 and the introduction of the F.T.–S.E. Actuaries United Kingdom Series
Authors: Brumwell J. C. H.
Published: April 2012

Continuing process of updating company classifications.

Fifty-three constituents deleted during 1992—more as a result of casualty rule than those taken over. Only forty-one replaced—reflecting difficulty in finding suitable new non-industrial constituents.

Introduction of the new F.T.–S.E. Actuaries Share Indices, bringing F.T.–S.E. 100, 250 Mid Cap and Small Cap into a single family, with the All-Share widened to include 800 constituents.
Consumer credit calculations
Authors: Daykin C. D.
Published: April 2012

1.1. In 1968 the government of the day set up a committee under Lord Crowther to carry out a wide-ranging review of consumer credit. At that time only a few aspects of this complex field were covered by legislation and there was a minimal degree of control and consumer protection. The Crowther Committee reported in March 1971 with a fairly voluminous report, making extensive recommendations for changes in the law and for greatly increased control of this increasingly important area of consumer affairs.
On the time of extinction
Authors: Haberman S.
Published: April 2012

1.1. In the education and training of actuaries, Life Contingencies (or the Mathematical Basis of Life Assurance) has been taught traditionally as a deterministic branch of applied mathematics. There are many justifications for this practice. Three are given below:

1.1.1. Actuaries in life assurance practice deal with problems concerning population groups of large numbers of homogeneous lives. Then, regarding, for example, a life table function as only an estimate (in the strict statistical sense) of an unknown population parameter adds little to the practical value of the theory as the variances of such estimates would be negligible.
The opportunities for capital investment
Authors: Lewin C. G.
Published: April 2012

This paper explores the opportunities which may exist for increasing the extent to which the United Kingdom invests in capital assets, with the aim of increasing national economic growth. A number of factors thought to be relevant are examined and some apparent defects in companies' existing investment procedures are highlighted. It is suggested that a possible national strategy for the next few years might be an attempt to stimulate increased labour productivity and increased investment simultaneously. The paper tries to give some indication of the results which might be achieved if such a policy were successful. (It is assumed that a higher rate of economic growth would be desirable, and the paper does not enter into a discussion of whether non-quantifiable factors, e.g. the quality of life, are more important. This does not mean that such factors can be ignored in practice, however, and they may—quite rightly—restrain what could otherwise be done.)
Circular seating arrangements
Authors: Jones D. S. , Moore P. G.
Published: April 2012

This problem concerns n couples around a circular table, husbands and wives seated alternately. The number of ways in which the n couples can be seated such that no husband and wife sit next to each other is required. This problem is not covered in the standard texts such as Feller (1950) or Whitworth (1901) who concentrate on the simpler linear problem, i.e. seating arrangements in a row. In this paper we obtain a solution for the circular problem, deriving thereby the probability that no such matching occurs when the seating is made at random, and showing finally that this probability has a limiting value when n is large.
Decrement tables and the measurement of morbidity: I
Authors: Haberman S.
Published: April 2012

1.1. In a recent paper, Pollard(1)introduced the morbidity-mortality table as a model for measuring the interaction between morbidity and mortality of chronic degenerative conditions like breast cancer and lung cancer. This device consists essentially of two double decrement tables: for example, persons either remain free of breast cancer for life or depart from the breast cancer-free group by incurring breast cancer or by dying from other causes; those who incur breast cancer either remain alive with it until they die from it or die from other causes. Clearly this model is very similar to the combined marriage-mortality table which is referred to briefly in U.K. actuarial texts(2). Neither of these models, however, allows for increments, for example recoveries from breast cancer in Pollard's morbidity-mortality table. In recent years one of the major advances in the theoretical development and practical construction of life tables has been the incorporation of increments. A guide to this methodology is provided here with particular emphasis on the measurement of incidence and prevalence of disease. Further applications are given in an accompanying paper, to appear in Volume 111(3).
The development of friendly societies and life assurance in Australia
Authors: Nobbs R.
Published: April 2012

The increasing involvement of Australian governments and people in social welfare and the increasing number of histories appearing in this field, makes it appropriate to recognize the alternate institutions—the mutual-aid bodies. By looking at these private institutions, which began to develop in the nineteenth century, we gain some perspective on the initiatives of government in the twentieth century in social policy in Australia. This paper does not extend to banks, building societies or to other co-operatives, but is restricted to those two institutions, friendly societies and the life insurance companies, which sought to provide for the exigencies of sickness, old-age and death.
Motor insurance rating, an actuarial approach
Authors: Coutts S. M.
Published: April 2012

This paper is largely based on a Ph.D. thesis (Coutts (1983)) and provides an actuarial approach to the technical aspects of motor insurance premium rating, where equal weights are given to both the practical and statistical elements of the problem. The methods described are applicable to the competitive United Kingdom motor insurance premium market. However, it is also contended that in countries where motor rating tariffs are in operation, the analyses proposed are still necessary for management to judge where in the portfolio the business is potentially unprofitable.
The solvency of general insurance companies
Authors: Daykin C. D. , Devitt E. R. , Khan M. R. , McCaughan J. P.
Published: April 2012

1.1. Since its formation in 1974 the General Insurance Study Group has been considering various aspects of the solvency of general insurance companies and a number of papers have been produced for discussion at GISG Seminars. These have been deposited in the library at Staple Inn but have not been presented or made available to a wider audience in the profession.

1.2. At the Dublin Seminar in October 1981, three working parties reported on different aspects of solvency: technical risks, investment risks and reinsurance. These papers covered a wide field but lacked a coherent theme. During 1982 some work was set in hand to draw the threads together. This was not completed for the Stratford Seminar in November 1982 but there was by that time much interest in the Finnish solvency study which had recently been presented to the ASTIN Colloquium in Liège.
Economies of scale in the management of occupational superannuation schemes
Authors: Knox D. M.
Published: April 2012

The level of benefits paid to members of occupational superannuation schemes will depend on the level of contributions made by the employer and employee, the investment earnings received by the accumulated assets and the expenses incurred in the management of the scheme. However, this third factor has been ignored by previous studies into occupational superannuation, even though higher expense levels will naturally cause reduced benefits for a given level of contributions and investment return. In this respect, cost efficiency within the superannuation industry is an important criterion in assessing the efficacy of employer-sponsored occupational superannuation.
Return of premiums and minimum sum assured
Authors: Haberman S.
Published: April 2012

This paper deals with life assurance policies where the death benefit is the maximum of a fixed sum assured and a return of the gross premiums paid. The gross premium is then the solution of an implicit equation. The conditions for the uniqueness and existence of a solution are discussed.
The property market, property valuations and property performance measurement
Authors: Hager David P. , Lord David J.
Published: April 2012

1.1. The Institute has discussed papers on most aspects of institutional investment in recent years, with the notable exception of property. This is not due to the lack of importance of this investment sector to pension funds and life offices, but perhaps to the greater role of actuaries (rather than surveyors) in the other investment media and to the interest in mathematical models for gilts and equities.

1.2. In this paper we have not tried to produce a mathematical model of the property market, a new valuation method for property or solutions to the extensive problems of property performance measurement and indices. We have, however, tried to pull together, in a single paper, the volumes of material on the property market and property valuation methods. We have also tried to set down some of the pitfalls of property performance measurement, which often tend to be overlooked in the relentless pursuit for more statistics in this important area.
Unit pricing and provision for tax on capital gains in linked assurance business
Authors: Laker R. J. , Squires R. J.
Published: April 2012

1.1. For a number of years now it has been a commonplace amongst actuaries actively involved in unit-linked business that it was time someone wrote a paper dealing adequately with the subject of unit pricing. To those not actively involved with the subject the absence of such a paper may seem unimportant, but the fact is that the price-making process is central to the whole conduct of linked life business. It exerts a major influence upon the profitability and solvency of the office, and upon the relative interests of different classes and generations of policyholders and shareholders. In this respect, it is analogous to the bonus policy of a with profits office.
Reserves in Lloyd's and the London market
Authors: Benjamin S. , Eagles L. M.
Published: April 2012

1.1 Lloyd's and the rest of the London market underwrite a significant part of the world's insurance and are a dominating influence on insurance world-wide. This paper looks at the data which is collected primarily for reserving purposes inside the market—or rather, the paper looks at some new and unusual but very simple ways of looking at that data. Experience is showing that these simple methods are proving to be more powerful aids to underwriters and auditors than was envisaged when they were first invented. They are graphical and hence easy to ‘see’.
On graduation by mathematical formula
Authors: Forfar D. O. , McCutcheon J. J. , Wilkie A. D.
Published: April 2012

In the course of work undertaken as members of the Executive Committee of the Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau in the preparation of graduated tables of mortality for the experiences of 1979–82, we have had occasion to make use of and develop a number of statistical techniques with which actuaries may not be familiar, and which are not fully discussed in the current textbook by Benjamin & Pollard (1980), though some of them have been referred to in previous papers by the CMI Committee (1974, 1976). We therefore felt that it would be useful to the profession if we were to present these methods comprehensively in one paper. We do this with the permission of the other members of the CMI Committee, who do not, however, take responsibility for what follows, whether good or bad.
Social class differences in mortality in Great Britain around 1981
Authors: Haberman S. , Bloomfield D. S. F.
Published: April 2012

The Decennial Supplement on Occupational Mortality published in 1978 commented on mortality differences between the social classes (Chapter 8) using data from the 1971 Census and the deaths in the period 1970–72. The analysis was based on life tables prepared for the individual social classes from which derived indices, for example expectations of life, were calculated. It is proposed here to repeat this exercise using the data for males recently published in microfiche form by the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys—OPCS. This time, the Decennial Supplement has omitted to provide an analysis and commentary and we propose to make some attempt to remedy this deficiency. In our analysis, the Decennial Supplement data have been supplemented by data from the OPCS Longitudinal Study.
The recent trend of mortality in Great Britain
Authors: Daykin C. D.
Published: April 2012

This note continues a regular series on mortality rates in Great Britain; the previous note in the series appeared in J.I.A.114, 135 and dealt with mortality in 1984 and 1985.

Following the 1981 Census, estimates of the resident population have been produced on a new definition. This includes residents temporarily outside the country but excludes foreign visitors. It includes members of both H.M. and foreign forces stationed in the United Kingdom but excludes members of H.M. forces who are stationed abroad. The figures for deaths are not precisely consistent with the new definition of the population, since they do not necessarily include all deaths of residents temporarily absent from the U.K.
Actuarial review of models for describing and predicting the spread of HIV infection and AIDS
Authors: Haberman S.
Published: April 2012

The paper reviews the mathematical models of transmission of infection that have been put forward for representing the spread of HIV infection and AIDS. It describes and compares the main models that have been proposed and thereby provides some guidance on how such models might be constructed and utilised. There is also discussion of the importance of constructing such mathematical models of transmission of infection which further our understanding of the transmission dynamics of the epidemic and help to identify important epidemiological parameters and their likely influence on the epidemic's course.
The valuation of general insurance companies
Authors: Ryan J. P. , Larner K. P. W.
Published: April 2012

The paper presents a theoretical framework for the valuation of a general insurance company to actuaries, but also aims to provide reference work for non-actuarial users of appraised values. It distinguishes between the price that may be paid for an insurance operation from what may be called the economic or appraised value. The paper describes the elements of the appraised value calculation, selection of parameters, the uses of such evaluations and explores the future development into explicit stochastic modelling rather than the implicit methodology. Theoretical and practical considerations are illustrated and example valuations of a single line insurer are given.
A stochastic method for claims reserving in general insurance
Authors: Wright T. S.
Published: April 2012

The paper addresses the problem of estimating future claim payments from the ‘run-off’ of past claim payments. A model of the claim payment process is postulated. Results from risk theory are applied to give a model for the incremental paid claims data by development period. A fitting method is developed which takes account of the error structure of the data implied by the underlying model of the claim payment process. The application of a similar method to incremental incurred data is considered. A numerical example is given.
Unit-linked assurance: observations and propositions
Authors: Squires R. J.
Published: April 2012

Perhaps this paper should be entitled A Description of Methods Being Used in Connexion With a Contract of the Grant and Kingsnorth Category ‘A’ Type, For Want of Any Better Ideas. (The reference is to Unit Trusts and Equitylinked Endowment Assurances by A. T. Grant and G. A. Kingsnorth, J.I.A. 93, 387.) It has been written because the publication of the Scott Report and the passing of the Insurance Companies Act make it desirable that the Institute should discuss unit-linked assurance again at this time, and because certain aspects, in particular maturity guarantees and reserves for tax on capital gains, have not been dealt with adequately in the past. Propositions in respect of these are made in the paper, and it is hoped that, as a result of discussion, ‘generally accepted actuarial principles‘category B’ type contracts, for example considerations affecting pricing units net of tax on capital gains, but the paper does not attempt to deal with this type of contract more generally, as fundamentally different considerations are involved. It does deal with ‘category A’ policies linked to unitized internal funds as well as those linked to units of Authorized Unit Trusts.
Notes on the variance of a widow's pension
Authors: Boyle P. P.
Published: April 2012

Pollard and Pollard have considered a stochastic approach to certain actuarial problems. In their notation ãx denotes the random variable whose expected value is ax. The random variable ãx depends on the random variable, time until death and the (assumed constant) rate of interest. The authors show how to calculate the second and higher-order moments of some common actuarial random variables such as ãx and Ãx. The second moments, in particular, are useful in estimating confidence limits for the total liability in respect of a group of contracts.
Some thoughts on technical reserves and statutory returns in general insurance
Authors: Abbott W. M. , Clarke T. G. , Hey G. B. , Reynolds D. I. W. , Treen W. R.
Published: April 2012

Supervision of Insurance Companies in the United Kingdom is based on the principle of ‘freedom with publicity’. For general insurance, publicity is provided through the returns required by the Insurance Companies (Accounts and Forms) Regulations 1968 (S.I. No. 1408) which was issued under the terms of the Companies Act 1967. If the principle is to operate successfully the returns must be scrutinized carefully if not by prospective and existing policyholders and stockholders then by those representing their interests, be they government departments, insurance brokers, stockbrokers, statisticians, accountants or actuaries. The nature of the information to be collected, as well as its presentation and interpretation requires special skills and experience. An actuarial training provides these skills and it is appropriate, therefore, that the returns should be discussed at a meeting of the Institute.
John Knox's plan for insuring lives: a patent of invention in 1778
Authors: Renn D. F.
Published: April 2012

Staple Inn and the Patent Office are only separated by the width of a garden, and it might be wondered why none of the many ingenious schemes of insurance has ever been protected by patenting it. Such protection of an idea should be impossible, as will be explained later, but in 1778 one John Knox ‘Of Richmond in the County of Surry, Gentleman’ took the first step towards such a patent by petitioning King George III ‘that with great assiduity, art and pains and after many laborious calculations and at a considerable expence’ he had invented ‘A Plan, Different to any before that Time Discovered, for Assurance on Lives from Ten to Eighty Years of Age, upon a Twofold Beneficial Principle, Making a certain provision as well for Subscribers or their Representatives upon the Death of the Person on whose Life Assurance should be made within the Term Assured for, as also by Means of a Reserved Capital for the Surviving Subscribers whose Nominees should be Living at the Expiration of such Term….’
A comparison of the clinical characteristics of women with recurrent major depression with and without suicidal symptomatology
Authors: Bi B. , Xiao X. , Zhang H. , Gao J. , Tao M. , Niu H. , Wang Y. , Wang Q. , Chen C. , Sun N. , Li K. , Fu J. , Gan Z. , Sang W. , Zhang G. , Yang L. , Tian T. , Li Q. , Yang Q. , Sun L. , Li Ying , Rong H. , Guan C. , Zhao X. , Ye D. , Zhang Y. , Ma Z. , Li H. , He K. , Chen J. , Cai Y. , Zhou C. , Luo Y. , Wang S. , Gao S. , Liu J. , Guo L. , Guan J. , Kang Z. , Di D. , Li Yajuan , Shi S. , Li Yihan , Chen Y. , Flint J. , Kendler K. , Liu Y.
Published: April 2012

Background

The relationship between recurrent major depression (MD) in women and suicidality is complex. We investigated the extent to which patients who suffered with various forms of suicidal symptomatology can be distinguished from those subjects without such symptoms.

Method

We examined the clinical features of the worst episode in 1970 Han Chinese women with recurrent DSM-IV MD between the ages of 30 and 60 years from across China. Student's t tests, and logistic and multiple logistic regression models were used to determine the association between suicidality and other clinical features of MD.

Results

Suicidal symptomatology is significantly associated with a more severe form of MD, as indexed by both the number of episodes and number of MD symptoms. Patients reporting suicidal thoughts, plans or attempts experienced a significantly greater number of stressful life events. The depressive symptom most strongly associated with lifetime suicide attempt was feelings of worthlessness (odds ratio 4.25, 95% confidence interval 2.9–6.3). Excessive guilt, diminished concentration and impaired decision-making were also significantly associated with a suicide attempt.

Conclusions

This study contributes to the existing literature on risk factors for suicidal symptomatology in depressed women. Identifying specific depressive symptoms and co-morbid psychiatric disorders may help improve the clinical assessment of suicide risk in depressed patients. These findings could be helpful in identifying those who need more intense treatment strategies in order to prevent suicide.
Popular music and the aesthetics of ageing
Authors: Bennett Andy , Taylor Jodie
Published: April 2012

The cultural turn in sociology and related fields of study has brought with it new understandings of the various ways social identities are formed. In a post-structural landscape, social identities must increasingly be regarded as reflexively derived ‘performative assemblages’ that incorporate elements of the local vernacular and global popular cultures. Building on the above reinterpretation of social identity, this paper takes as its central premise the notion that, in addition to its well-mapped cultural importance for youth, popular music retains a critical currency for the ageing audience as a key cultural resource of post-youth identification, lifestyle and associated cultural practices. In its examination of the relationship between popular music, ageing and identity, this paper uses illustrative examples drawn from ethnographic data collected by the authors between 2002 and 2009 in Australia and the UK.
‘How we feel the music’: popular music by elders and for elders
Authors: Forman Murray
Published: April 2012

This article is inspired by the voices and perceptions of elder music fans and performing musicians, especially those older than 70 years of age. Based upon field interviews and ethnographic observations, it challenges the deleterious influences of social labelling and ageist perspectives (including casual yet damaging attributions of nostalgic yearning) that tend to delegitimise the musical interests or tastes of older citizens. By also emphasising musical performance, the article explores the active forms of music making as a strategy that mitigates notions of elders as non-productive consumers. The analysis further engages the contexts of musical performances within regulated institutional settings of assisted living residences, interrogating the logic and discourses of commercial management or State bureaucracies as they are expressed through organised musical recreation activities.