bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Towards Trust and Trust Building in a Selected Cloud Gaming Virtual Community
Authors: Yao Yulin , Chang Victor
Published: September 2014

Trust is an increasingly important factor in the virtual communities (VCs), since trust between different members can determine the long-term collaboration. The authors approach is to examine on trust building on a Cloud gaming VC. They present the related literature and set four major hypotheses based on our literature review. Survey questions were designed based on our hypotheses and sent out to Chinese participants. They collected 100 valid sample size and presented the data demographics. The authors analyze their data which has p-values 0.05 and below for all categories of their four hypotheses. They use one-way ANOVA to compare the current and previous data and explain the interpretation of the analysis. Results show that there is a high extent of accuracy, consistency and support our four hypotheses. To support the case that online gaming is an aspect of emerging Cloud, the authors show examples about role-playing game, mission in the game, transferring trust to friendship and other games in demands. They discuss the limitation of this research and explain the future directions to improve on these aspects.
IT Outsourcing and Firm Characteristics
Authors: Martin Ludivine , Poussing Nicolas
Published: September 2014

This paper seeks to identify the characteristics of firms that choose to transfer all or at least part of the fulfilment of their information technology needs to an outside party. The authors focus both on outsourcing and on offshoring. With a statistical approach, based on a large and nationally representative data set at the firm unit level, the authors look at the profiles of firms that have decided to outsource and/or offshore at least part of their ICT activities. The authors show that the firms with the most specific ICT needs choose to acquire these services from external suppliers or firms located abroad. The firms with the highest level of ICT investment are also the firms that choose to resort to outsourcing to a great extent.
An Empirical Study of the Factors Affecting Mobile Shopping in Taiwan
Authors: Chen Yi-Fen , Lan Yu-Chen
Published: September 2014

Mobile commerce has already become one of the trends in future developments. Therefore, mobile shopping in application of mobile commerce will become one of the services with a vast development potential. A technology acceptance model (TAM) with trust is utilized to explore influence of perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness in mobile shopping on customers' attitudes and behavioral intention to use, mobility, convenience and information richness, characterized by mobile commerce. An online survey was performed on a sample of 600 mobile users in Taiwan. Structural equation models (SEM) are used to examine hypotheses within the theoretical framework.
Greenhouse gas network design using backward Lagrangian particle dispersion modelling − Part 1: Methodology and Australian test case
Authors: Ziehn T. , Nickless A. , Rayner P. J. , Law R. M. , Roff G. , Fraser P.
Published: September 2014

Abstract. This paper describes the generation of optimal atmospheric measurement networks for determining carbon dioxide fluxes over Australia using inverse methods. A Lagrangian particle dispersion model is used in reverse mode together with a Bayesian inverse modelling framework to calculate the relationship between weekly surface fluxes, comprising contributions from the biosphere and fossil fuel combustion, and hourly concentration observations for the Australian continent. Meteorological driving fields are provided by the regional version of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) at 12 km resolution at an hourly timescale. Prior uncertainties are derived on a weekly timescale for biosphere fluxes and fossil fuel emissions from high-resolution model runs using the Community Atmosphere Biosphere Land Exchange (CABLE) model and the Fossil Fuel Data Assimilation System (FFDAS) respectively. The influence from outside the modelled domain is investigated, but proves to be negligible for the network design. Existing ground-based measurement stations in Australia are assessed in terms of their ability to constrain local flux estimates from the land. We find that the six stations that are currently operational are already able to reduce the uncertainties on surface flux estimates by about 30%. A candidate list of 59 stations is generated based on logistic constraints and an incremental optimisation scheme is used to extend the network of existing stations. In order to achieve an uncertainty reduction of about 50%, we need to double the number of measurement stations in Australia. Assuming equal data uncertainties for all sites, new stations would be mainly located in the northern and eastern part of the continent.
Will the role of intercontinental transport change in a changing climate?
Authors: Glotfelty T. , Zhang Y. , Karamchandani P. , Streets D. G.
Published: September 2014

Abstract. Intercontinental transport of atmospheric pollution (ITAP) can offset the impact of local emission control efforts, impact human and ecosystem health, and play a role in climate forcing. This study aims to determine the role of ITAP caused by East Asian anthropogenic emissions (EAAEs) under current and future emission and climate scenarios. The contribution from EAAEs is determined using a "brute force method" in which results from simulations with and without EAAEs are compared. ITAP from East Asia is enhanced in the future due to faster wind speeds aloft and a stronger low pressure center near eastern Russia that facilitate enhanced westerly export in the free troposphere and stronger southerly transport near the surface, increased gaseous precursor emissions, and increased temperatures. As a result, the contribution of ozone (O3) generated by EAAEs to the global average O3 mixing ratio increases by ~0.8 ppb from 1.2 ppb in 2001 to 2.0 ppb in 2050. The contribution of PM2.5 generated by EAAEs to the global PM2.5 level increases by ~0.07 μg m−3 from 0.32 μg m−3 in 2001 to 0.39 μg m−3 in 2050, despite a non-homogenous response in PM2.5 resulting from cloud and radiative feedbacks. EAAEs can increase East Asian biogenic secondary organic aerosol by 10–81%, indicating that it is largely controllable. EAAEs also increase the deposition of nitrogen, black carbon, and mercury both locally and downwind, implying that they may play a role in climate feedbacks and ecosystem health of these regions. These results show that EAAEs have a large impact on global air quality and climate, especially on downwind regions. Such impacts may be enhanced under future climate and emission scenarios, demonstrating a need to synergize global pollution control and climate mitigation efforts.
Advances in understanding and parameterization of small-scale physical processes in the marine Arctic climate system: a review
Authors: Vihma T. , Pirazzini R. , Fer I. , Renfrew I. A. , Sedlar J. , Tjernström M. , Lüpkes C. , Nygård T. , Notz D. , Weiss J. , Marsan D. , Cheng B. , Birnbaum G. , Gerland S. , Chechin D. , Gascard J. C.
Published: September 2014

Abstract. The Arctic climate system includes numerous highly interactive small-scale physical processes in the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. During and since the International Polar Year 2007–2009, significant advances have been made in understanding these processes. Here, these recent advances are reviewed, synthesized, and discussed. In atmospheric physics, the primary advances have been in cloud physics, radiative transfer, mesoscale cyclones, coastal, and fjordic processes as well as in boundary layer processes and surface fluxes. In sea ice and its snow cover, advances have been made in understanding of the surface albedo and its relationships with snow properties, the internal structure of sea ice, the heat and salt transfer in ice, the formation of superimposed ice and snow ice, and the small-scale dynamics of sea ice. For the ocean, significant advances have been related to exchange processes at the ice–ocean interface, diapycnal mixing, double-diffusive convection, tidal currents and diurnal resonance. Despite this recent progress, some of these small-scale physical processes are still not sufficiently understood: these include wave–turbulence interactions in the atmosphere and ocean, the exchange of heat and salt at the ice–ocean interface, and the mechanical weakening of sea ice. Many other processes are reasonably well understood as stand-alone processes but the challenge is to understand their interactions with and impacts and feedbacks on other processes. Uncertainty in the parameterization of small-scale processes continues to be among the greatest challenges facing climate modelling, particularly in high latitudes. Further improvements in parameterization require new year-round field campaigns on the Arctic sea ice, closely combined with satellite remote sensing studies and numerical model experiments.
The effects of nitrate on the heterogeneous uptake of sulfur dioxide on hematite
Authors: Kong L. D. , Zhao X. , Sun Z. Y. , Yang Y. W. , Fu H. B. , Zhang S. C. , Cheng T. T. , Yang X. , Wang L. , Chen J. M.
Published: September 2014

Abstract. Nitrate is often found to be associated with atmospheric particles. Surface nitrate can change the hygroscopicity of these particles, and thus impact their chemical reactivity. However, the influence of nitrate on heterogeneous reactions of atmospheric trace gases is poorly understood. In this work, the effects of nitrate on heterogeneous conversion of SO2 with hematite at 298 K are investigated using an in situ diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy (DRIFTS) and a White cell coupled with Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (White cell-FTIR). It is found that nitrate participates in heterogeneous reactions of SO2, accelerates the formation rate of sulfate, and leads to the formation of surface-adsorbed HNO3 and gas-phase N2O and HONO. The results indicate that low to moderate amounts of nitrate significantly enhance the reactivity of hematite–nitrate mixtures, the uptake of SO2, and the formation of sulfate on hematite. For mixtures, the sample containing 24% nitrate exhibits the highest sulfate formation rate, and its corresponding uptake coefficient calculated by geometric surface area is about 5.5 times higher than that of hematite alone. The sample containing 48% nitrate presents the highest Brunauer–Emmett–Teller (BET) uptake coefficient, and the value is about 8 times higher than that of pure hematite. No uptake of SO2 and formation of sulfate are observed on pure nitrate. Evidence presented herein implies a significant contribution of the unreleased HNO3 and HONO in the particles for the conversion of SO2 and the enhanced formation of sulfate in the atmosphere. A possible mechanism for the influence of nitrate on the heterogeneous conversion of SO2 on hematite is proposed, and atmospheric implications based on these results are discussed.
Ozone distributions over southern Lake Michigan: comparisons between ferry-based observations, shoreline-based DOAS observations and air quality forecast models
Authors: Cleary P. A. , Fuhrman N. , Schulz L. , Schafer J. , Fillingham J. , Bootsma H. , Langel T. , Williams E. J. , Brown S. S.
Published: September 2014

Abstract. Air quality forecast models typically predict large ozone abundances over water relative to land in the Great Lakes region. While each state bordering Lake Michigan has dedicated monitoring systems, offshore measurements have been sparse, mainly executed through specific short-term campaigns. This study examines ozone abundances over Lake Michigan as measured on the Lake Express ferry, by shoreline Differential Optical Absorption Spectroscopy (DOAS) observations in southeastern Wisconsin, and as predicted by the National Air Quality Forecast System. From 2008–2009 measurements of O3, SO2, NO2 and formaldehyde were made in the summertime by DOAS at a shoreline site in Kenosha, WI. From 2008–2010 measurements of ambient ozone conducted on the Lake Express, a high-speed ferry that travels between Milwaukee, WI and Muskegon, MI up to 6 times daily from spring to fall. Ferry ozone observations over Lake Michigan were an average of 3.8 ppb higher than those measured at shoreline in Kenosha with little dependence on position of the ferry or temperature but with highest differences during evening and night. Concurrent ozone forecast images from National Weather System's National Air Quality Forecast System in the upper Midwestern region surrounding Lake Michigan were saved over the ferry ozone sampling period in 2009. The bias of the model O3 forecast was computed and evaluated with respect to ferry-based measurements. The model 1 and 8 h ozone mean biases were both 12 ppb higher than observed ozone, and maximum daily 1 h ozone mean bias was 10 ppb, indicating substantial ozone over-prediction over water. Trends in the bias with respect to location and time of day or month were also explored showing non-uniformity in model bias. Extreme ozone events were predicted by the model but not observed by ferry measurements.
Meridional distribution of aerosol optical thickness over the tropical Atlantic Ocean
Authors: Kishcha P. , da Silva A. M. , Starobinets B. , Long C. N. , Kalashnikova O. , Alpert P.
Published: September 2014

Abstract. Previous studies showed that, over the global ocean, there is hemispheric asymmetry in aerosols and no noticeable asymmetry in cloud fraction (CF). In the current study, we focus on the tropical Atlantic (30° N–30° S) which is characterized by significant amounts of Saharan dust dominating other aerosol species over the North Atlantic. Over a limited area such as the tropical Atlantic, our study showed that strong meridional asymmetry in dust aerosols was accompanied by meridional CF asymmetry, by contrast to the global ocean. During the 10 yr study period (July 2002–June 2012), NASA Aerosol Reanalysis (aka MERRAero) showed that, when the meridional asymmetry in dust aerosol optical thickness (AOT) was the most pronounced (particularly in July), dust AOT averaged separately over the tropical North Atlantic was one order of magnitude higher than dust AOT averaged over the tropical South Atlantic. In the presence of such strong meridional asymmetry in dust AOT in July, CF averaged separately over the tropical North Atlantic exceeded CF averaged over the tropical South Atlantic by 20%. In July, along the Saharan Air Layer, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) CF data showed significant cloud cover (up to 0.8–0.9), which contributed to above-mentioned meridional CF asymmetry. Both Multi-Angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) measurements and MERRAero data were in agreement on seasonal variations in meridional aerosol asymmetry. Meridional asymmetry in total AOT over the Atlantic was the most pronounced between March and July, when dust presence over the North Atlantic was maximal. In September and October, there was no noticeable meridional asymmetry in total AOT over the tropical Atlantic.
First results from a rotational Raman scattering cloud algorithm applied to the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) Nadir Mapper
Authors: Vasilkov A. , Joiner J. , Seftor C.
Published: September 2014

Abstract. This paper reports initial results from an Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite (OMPS) Nadir Mapper cloud pressure and cloud fraction algorithm. The OMPS cloud products are intended for use in OMPS ozone or other trace-gas algorithms. We developed the OMPS cloud products using a heritage algorithm developed for the Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) on NASA's Aura satellite. The cloud pressure algorithm utilizes the filling-in of ultraviolet solar Fraunhofer lines by rotational Raman scattering. The OMPS cloud products are evaluated by comparison with OMI cloud products that have been compared in turn with other collocated satellite data including cloud optical thickness profiles derived from a combination of measurements from the CloudSat radar and MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). We find that the probability density functions (PDFs) of effective cloud fraction retrieved from OMPS and OMI measurements are very similar. The PDFs of the OMPS and OMI cloud pressures are comparable. However, OMPS retrieves somewhat higher pressures on average. The current NASA total ozone retrieval algorithm makes use of a monthly gridded cloud pressure climatology developed from OMI. This climatology captures much of the variability associated with the relevant cloud pressures. However, the use of actual cloud pressures retrieved with OMPS in place of the OMI climatology changes OMPS total column ozone estimates locally (presumably in the correct direction) only in areas with large differences between climatological and actual cloud pressures. The ozone differences can be up to 5% in such areas.
Case study on complex sporadic E layers observed by GPS radio occultations
Authors: Yue X. , Schreiner W. S. , Zeng Z. , Kuo Y.-H. , Xue X.
Published: September 2014

Abstract. The occurrence of sporadic E (Es) layer has been a hot scientific topic for a long time. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) based Radio Occultation (RO) has been proven a powerful technique on detecting the global Es layers. In this paper, we focus on some cases of complex Es layers based on the RO data from multiple missions processed in UCAR/CDAAC. We first show some examples of multiple Es layers occurred in one RO event. Based on the evaluations between co-located simultaneous RO events and between RO and Lidar observations, it could be concluded that some of these do manifest the multiple Es layered structures. We then show a case of the occurrence of Es in a broad region during a certain time interval. The result is then validated by the independent ionosondes observations. These complex Es structures could be understood well by the popular wind shear theory. We could map the global Es occurrence routinely in the near future given that more RO data will be available. Further statistical studies will enhance our understanding on the Es mechanism. The specification on Es should benefit both the Es based long distance communication and accurate neutral RO retrievals.
Morphology of Emiliania huxleyi coccoliths on the northwestern European shelf – is there an influence of carbonate chemistry?
Authors: Young J. R. , Poulton A. J. , Tyrrell T.
Published: September 2014

Abstract. Within the context of the UK Ocean Acidification project, Emiliania huxleyi (type A) coccolith morphology was examined from samples collected during cruise D366. In particular, a morphometric study of coccolith size and degree of calcification was made on scanning electron microscope images of samples from shipboard CO2 perturbation experiments and from a set of environmental samples with significant variation in calcite saturation state (Ωcalcite). One bioassay in particular (E4 from the southern North Sea) yielded unambiguous results – in this bioassay exponential growth from a low initial cell density occurred with no nutrient enrichment and coccosphere numbers increased tenfold during the experiment. The samples with elevated CO2 saw significantly reduced coccolithophore growth. However, coccolithophore morphology was not significantly affected by the changing CO2 conditions even under the highest levels of perturbation (1000 μatm CO2). Environmental samples similarly showed no correlation of coccolithophore morphology with calcite saturation state. Some variation in coccolith size and degree of calcification does occur but this seems to be predominantly due to genotypic differentiation between populations on the shelf and in the open ocean.
Millennial scale variability in high magnitude flooding across Britain
Authors: Macdonald N.
Published: September 2014

Abstract. The last decade has witnessed severe flooding across much of the globe, but have these floods really been exceptional? Globally, relatively few instrumental river flow series extend beyond 50 years, with short records presenting significant challenges in determining flood risk from high-magnitude floods. A perceived increase in extreme floods in recent years has decreased public confidence in conventional flood risk estimates; the results affect society (insurance costs), individuals (personal vulnerability) and companies (e.g. water resource managers – flood/drought risk). Here we show how historical records from Britain have improved understanding of high magnitude floods, by examining past spatial and temporal variability. The findings identify that whilst recent floods are notable, several comparable periods of increased flooding are identifiable historically, with periods of greater frequency (flood-rich periods) or/and larger floods. The use of historical records identifies that the largest floods often transcend single catchments affecting regions and that the current flood rich period is not exceptional.
Bayesian trend analysis of extreme wind using observed and hindcast series off the Catalan coast, NW Mediterranean Sea
Authors: Ortego M. I. , Egozcue J. J. , Tolosana-Delgado R.
Published: September 2014

Abstract. It has been suggested that climate change might modify the occurrence rate and magnitude of large ocean-wave and wind storms. The hypothesised reason is the increase of available energy in the atmosphere–ocean system. Forecasting models are commonly used to assess these effects, given that good-quality data series are often too short. However, forecasting systems are often tuned to reproduce the average behaviour, and there are concerns on their relevance for extremal regimes. We present a methodology of simultaneous analysis of observed and hindcast data with the aim of extracting potential time drifts as well as systematic regime discrepancies between the two data sources. The method is based on the peak-over-threshold (POT) approach and the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD) within a Bayesian estimation framework. In this context, storm events are considered points in time, and modelled as a Poisson process. Storm magnitude over a reference threshold is modelled with a GPD, a flexible model that captures the tail behaviour of the magnitude distribution. All model parameters, i.e. shape and location of the magnitude GPD and the Poisson occurrence rate, are affected by a trend in time. Moreover, a systematic difference between parameters of hindcast and observed series is considered. Finally, the posterior joint distribution of all these trend parameters is studied using a conventional Gibbs sampler. This method is applied to compare hindcast and observed series of average wind speed at a deep buoy location off the Catalan coast (NE Spain, western Mediterranean; buoy data from 2001; REMO wind hindcasting from 1958 on). Appropriate scale and domain of attraction are discussed, and the reliability of trends in time is addressed.
Rainstorms able to induce flash floods in a Mediterranean-climate region (Calabria, southern Italy)
Authors: Terranova O. G. , Gariano S. L.
Published: September 2014

Abstract. Heavy rainstorms often induce flash flooding, one of the natural disasters most responsible for damage to man-made infrastructures and loss of lives, also adversely affecting the opportunities for socio-economic development of Mediterranean countries. The frequently dramatic damage of flash floods are often detected, with sufficient accuracy, by post-event surveys, but rainfall causing them are still only roughly characterized. With the aim of improving the understanding of the temporal structure and spatial distribution of heavy rainstorms in the Mediterranean context, a statistical analysis was carried out in Calabria (southern Italy) concerning rainstorms that mainly induced flash floods, but also shallow landslides and debris flows. Thus, a method is proposed – based on the overcoming of heuristically predetermined threshold values of cumulated rainfall, maximum intensity, and kinetic energy of the rainfall event – to select and characterize the rainstorms able to induce flash floods in the Mediterranean-climate countries. Therefore, the obtained (heavy) rainstorms were automatically classified and studied according to their structure in time, localization, and extension. Rainfall-runoff watershed models can consequently benefit from the enhanced identification of design storms, with a realistic time structure integrated with the results of the spatial analysis. A survey of flash flood events recorded in the last decades provides a preliminary validation of the method proposed to identify the heavy rainstorms and synthetically describe their characteristics. The notable size of the employed sample, including data with a very detailed resolution in time that relate to several rain gauges well-distributed throughout the region, gives robustness to the obtained results.
Performance of storm damage functions: a sectoral impact model intercomparison
Authors: Prahl B. F. , Rybski D. , Burghoff O. , Kropp J. P.
Published: September 2014

Abstract. Winter storms are the most costly natural hazard for European residential property. We compare four distinct storm damage functions with respect to their forecast accuracy and variability, with particular regard to the most severe winter storms. The analysis focuses on daily loss estimates under differing spatial aggregation, ranging from district to country level. We discuss the broad and heavily skewed distribution of insured losses posing difficulties on both the calibration and the evaluation of damage functions. From theoretical considerations, we provide a synthesis between the frequently discussed cubic damage-wind relationship and recent studies that report much steeper damage functions for European winter storms. The performance of the storm loss models is evaluated for two wind data sources, direct observation by the German Weather Service and ERA Interim reanalysis data. While the choice of wind data indicates little impact for the evaluation of German storm loss, local variability exhibits dependence between model and data choices. Based on our analysis, we favour the application of two probabilistic approaches which fare best in terms of the accuracy of their expected value and overall exhibit the lowest amount of variability.
On a report that the 2012 M = 6.0 earthquake in Italy was predicted after seeing an unusual cloud formation
Authors: Thomas J. N. , Masci F. , Love J. J.
Published: September 2014

Abstract. Several recently published reports have suggested that semi-stationary linear-cloud formations might be causally precursory to earthquakes. We examine the report of Guangmeng and Jie (2013), who claim to have predicted the 2012 M = 6.0 earthquake in the Po Valley of northern Italy after seeing a satellite image showing a linear-cloud formation over the eastern Apennine Mountains of central Italy. From inspection of four years of satellite images we find numerous examples of linear-cloud formations over Italy. A simple test shows no obvious statistical relationship between the occurrence of these cloud formations and earthquakes that occurred in and around Italy. All of the linear-cloud formations we have identified in satellite images, including that which Guangmeng and Jie (2013) claim to have used to predict the 2012 earthquake, appear to be orographic – formed by the interaction of moisture-laden wind flowing over mountains. Guangmeng and Jie (2013) have not clearly stated how linear-cloud formations can be used to predict the size, location, and time of an earthquake, and they have not published an account of all of their predictions (including any unsuccessful predictions). We are skeptical of the validity of the claim by Guangmeng and Jie (2013) that they have managed to predict any earthquakes
Recent summer Arctic atmospheric circulation anomalies in a historical perspective
Authors: Belleflamme A. , Fettweis X. , Erpicum M.
Published: September 2014

Abstract. A significant increase in the summertime occurrence of a high pressure area over the Beaufort Sea and Greenland has been observed from the beginning of the 2000's, and particularly between 2007 and 2012. These circulation anomalies are likely partly responsible for the enhanced Greenland ice sheet melt as well as the Arctic sea ice loss observed since 2007. Therefore, it is interesting to analyse whether similar conditions might have happened since the late 19th century over the Arctic region. We have used an atmospheric circulation type classification based on daily mean sea level pressure and 500 hPa geopotential height data from four reanalysis datasets (ERA-Interim, ERA-40, NCEP/NCAR, and 20CRv2) to put the recent circulation anomalies in perspective with the atmospheric circulation variability since 1871. We found that circulation conditions similar to 2007–2012 have occurred in the past, despite a higher uncertainty of the reconstructed circulation before 1940. But the recent anomalies largely exceed the interannual variability of the atmospheric circulation of the Arctic region. These circulation anomalies are linked with the North Atlantic Oscillation suggesting that they are not limited to the Arctic. Finally, they favour summertime Arctic sea ice loss.
CRISE E REESTRUTURAÇÃO DE UMA ESTATAL FINANCEIRA: O BANCO DO BRASIL, DO CRUZADO AO REAL
Authors: Vidotto Carlos Augusto
Published: September 2014

Este artigo aborda a empresa estatal financeira Banco do Brasil S.A., no período de 1986/88 a 1996/98, com o objetivo de analisar como foi tratada por sucessivos governos a crise decorrente da inconsistência entre seu papel público − particularmente o fomento creditício ao setor rural − e sua dimensão de grande empresa inserida concorrencialmente nos mercados financeiros. Examinando os momentos que marcaram a trajetória da estatal, mostra-se como a predominância de seu caráter público impôs limites estruturais à implantação de uma racionalidade privada no encaminhamento de suas estratégias. Abstract This article focuses on the state-owned financial institution Banco do Brasil S.A., over the period from 1986/88 to 1996/98, with the purpose of analyzing how it was addressed by successive governments the crisis that arose from the inconsistency between its public role − particularly as a subsidized credit supplier to the rural sector − and its competitive behavior as a large financial conglomerate. Examining the moments that marked the path of the state-owned company, it is shown that the predominance of BBs public character has imposed structural limits to establishing a private rationality in its strategic management.
VIEJAS PREGUNTAS, ¿VIEJAS RESPUESTAS?: ALGUNAS REFLEXIONES EN TORNO A LA CONVERGENCIA
Authors: Bértola Luis
Published: September 2014

A partir de una presentación del desempeño de las economías de Argentina, Brasil y Uruguay en relación a un núcleo de economías desarrolladas en 1870-1990, este trabajo se concentra en explicar el cambio desde una posición de relativamente buen desempeño de las economías rioplatenses hasta principios del Siglo XX, hacia un proceso de progresiva divergencia. El abordaje enfatiza el estudio del crecimiento de la productividad de las economías agro-exportadoras en relación a los cambios tecnológicos e institucionales producidos a lo largo de toda la cadena de producción y comercialización nacional e internacional. Igualmente se refiere a las características de los mercados de factores para la determinación de patrones de distribución del ingreso, que afectan niveles relativos del PBI per capita y de los salarios en términos de paridad de poder de compra. Las determinantes de un buen desempeño hasta la década de 1910 parecen revertirse entre 1910-1930, de la mano de cambios profundos en los paradigmas tecno-económicos y de fuertes cambios socio-institucionales en las economías desarrolladas. Parece agotarse una modalidad de inserción internacional basada en el uso intensivo de factores naturales combinados con la revolución de los transportes terrestres y marítimos, a la vez que la herencia en términos de formación de capital humano dejada por el modelo agro-exportador augura muy fuertes dificultades para insertarse en los nuevos patrones de competencia internacional. Abstract On the basis of an overview of Argentine, Brazilian and Uruguayan growth in 1870-1990 and in relation to a core of developed countries, this paper focuses on the transition which Argentina and Uruguay went through, from a high relative performance to a process of cumulative divergence. The approach emphasizes the role of productivity growth in the agrarian export sector, as related to technological and institutional changes along the whole national and international productive and commerce chain. The paper also refers to the features of factor markets in shaping the pattern of income distribution, and on real per capita GDP and purchasing power parity real wage levels. The underlying forces of the relatively successful performance until the 1910s seem to have experienced a reversal in 1910-1930, together with deep changes in the techno-economic paradigm as well as in the socio-institutional environment in the developed economies. The pattern of foreign trade, based on an intensive use of natural resources combined with the benefits of the transport revolution, both terrestrial and maritime, seemed to have come to n end. The heritage of the agrarian export-led growth in terms of poor human capital formation, anticipates the difficulties which those economies should face in relation to the emerging patterns of international competition.
OS MICROFUNDAMENTOS DO CONSUMO: DE KEYNES ATÉ A VERSÃO MODERNA DA TEORIA DA RENDA PERMANENTE
Authors: Oreiro Flavia Dias Rangel
Published: September 2014

Este artigo pretende analisar a evolução recente das teorias de consumo, enfatizando os micro-fundamentos do consumo, desde Keynes (1936) até a versão moderna da teoria da renda permanente de Hall- Flavin (1978-1981), bem como inserir o comportamento do consumidor numa ótica intertemporal. Nesse contexto, são discutidas: a teoria de consumo de John Maynard Keynes (1936); os fatos estilizados de Simon Kuznets (1940); a contribuição de Irving Fisher à teoria de consumo ao propor o modelo intertemporal básico de comportamento do consumidor; a teoria da renda permanente de Milton Friedman (1957) e a teoria do ciclo da vida de Franco Modigliani (1963), as quais se baseiam no arcabouço teórico de Fisher para explicar o enigma do consumo; e finalmente, a chamada versão moderna da teoria da renda permanente de Hall - Flavin (1978-81), que aplica o método de expectativas racionais aos modelos ciclo-da vida/ renda permanente. Abstract The objective of the present article is to analyze the recent evolution of the theories of the consumption function, with a special emphasis over the micro foundations of the consumption decision, since Keynes (1936) until the modern version of the permanent income hypothesis of Hall and Flavin (1978-1981). In this setting we will discuss the following issues: the consumption function theory of John Maynard Keynes, the stylized facts of Kusnets, the Irving Fisher contribution to the consumption function theory by his proposal of an intertemporal framework to analyze consumer behavior; Milton Friedman´s theory of permanent income and Modigliani´s life-cycle hypothesis. All these theories are based upon Irving Fisher framework to explain the consumption enigma. Finally we will analyze the Hall-Flavin version of the permanent income hypothesis, which applies the rational expectations method to the models of aggregate consumption based on the life-cycle/permanent income hypothesis.
RENDA E CONSUMO DE BENS DURÁVEIS NO BRASIL: A APLICAÇÃO DA ESCALA ECD NAS REGIÕES URBANAS DO SUDESTE E NORDESTE, 1996/1997
Authors: Tafner Paulo , Ferreira Marcelo Costa
Published: September 2014

O objetivo deste estudo é propor uma escala que aumente a qualidade da mensuração da variável renda em pesquisas domiciliares: a ECD, (Escala de Capacidade de Consumo Domiciliar). Ela atribui pesos, de acordo com a difusão de bens duráveis em um dado domicílio, considerando o ciclo de vida de um bem durável. A qualidade desse indicador foi verificada a partir de algumas evidências que são apresentadas e discutidas no texto. A análise empírica utiliza os dados da Pesquisa de Padrões de Vida (PPV), 1996/1997  IBGE. Conclui-se pela pertinência do uso da escala ECD como uma estratégia complementar de mensuração da renda domiciliar, sobretudo em casos em que a captura da informação apresenta dificuldades estruturais.
SEIS HISTÓRIAS DO PENSAMENTO ECONÔMICO: ABORDAGENS DADAS À REVOLUÇÃO MARGINALISTA E AO PENSAMENTO DE NASSAU SENIOR
Authors: Sbicca Adriana
Published: September 2014

Este trabalho analisa seis manuais de História do Pensamento Econômico (HPE) muito utilizados no ensino de graduação no país: História do Pensamento Económico de Mark Blaug, História do Pensamento Económico de Henri Denis, O Pensamento Econômico em Perspectiva  uma história crítica de J. K. Galbraith, História do Pensamento Econômico de E. K. Hunt, História do Pensamento Econômico de I. H. Rima, História da Análise Econômica de J. A. Schumpeter. O intuito é discutir como os autores destes livros explicitam diferentes objetivos e posturas frente à HPE e vão se diferenciar na apresentação de um evento na história das idéias econômicas e no tratamento dado ao pensamento de um determinado autor. Para tanto, escolheu-se a Revolução Marginalista como o evento a ser estudado e o pensamento de Nassau Senior. Pôde-se observar que tipicamente o autor do livro-texto faz escolhas retóricas e de estilo que adicionam o caráter de certeza factível e de convencimento ao fenômeno que está sendo descrito. No entanto, o tratamento dado aos fenômenos se diferencia. Dessa constatação emergem reflexões sobre o material bibliográfico utilizado e a maneira de ensinar a HPE.
Cooperação na gestão dos resíduos das indústrias metalúrgicas
Authors: Ruthes Sidarta , Ceretta Paulo Sérgio , Da Rocha Antonio Marcos Coelho , Sonza Igor Bernardi
Published: September 2014

O objetivo desta pesquisa é demonstrar que a cooperação empresarial aliada com a gestão ambiental pode reduzir os custos da qualidade. Para o desenvolvimento deste artigo fez-se uma pesquisa exploratória, em que os dados primários são oriundos das empresas do setor metalúrgico da cidade de Santa Maria (RS), da Usina Gerdau Riograndense (Grande Porto Alegre) e transportadoras da região; utilizou-se também dados secundários extraídos da internet, documentos públicos e pesquisa bibliográfica. Através da simulação realizada, ficou evidente que os resíduos renováveis do setor metalúrgico podem ter um destino economicamente melhor através da parceria empresarial. Pode-se concluir que a cooperação ambiental pode proporcionar várias melhorias na qualidade dos processos das empresas metalúrgicas, inclusive na redução dos custos de falha interna e, conseqüentemente, na redução dos custos globais da qualidade.
As propostas Keynesianas de reforma do sistema monetário internacional: em busca da neutralidade da moeda de conversibilidade internacional?
Authors: Ferrari Filho Fernando
Published: September 2014

Em vista da proposta keynesiana da International Clearing Unionsobre o sistema monetário internacional, este artigo argumenta que, apesar da moeda não ser neutra para Keynes, as propostas keynesianas relacionadas a uma moeda internacional e sua conversibilidade sugerem que ela é “neutra.”
Os debates sobre a natureza da posição de equilíbrio na Teoria Geral de Keynes
Authors: Oreiro José Luis
Published: September 2014

Este artigo tem por objetivo rediscutir a natureza da posição deequilíbrio com desemprego apresentada por Keynes na sua Teoria Geral à luz dos debates recentes em teoria macroeconômica, em particular, os debates entre James Tobin e Paul Davidson. Nesse contexto, iremos argumentar que (i) o modelo apresentado por Keynes na sua Teoria Geral não é um modelo com preços fixos, mas sim um modelo com preços flexíveis, o que significa dizerque não é válida a tese de que sua macroeconomia se caracteriza por uma suposta inversão da velocidade de ajuste entre preços e quantidades; (ii) o modelo de Keynes pressupõe rigidez da taxa nominal de salários ao longo de um dado período de produção, ao mesmo tempo em que admite flexibilidade (limitada) da taxa nominal de salários ao longo de uma seqüência de períodos;(iii) os efeitos dinâmicos da deflação dos salários nominais são, via de regra, desestabilizadores; e (iv) os efeitos dinâmicos da deflação dos salários nominais são, per se, incompatíveis com a definição de uma posição de equilíbrio com desemprego. Como corolário dessa argumentação segue-se que a essência da revolução Keynesiana deve ser buscada no campo da dinâmicaeconômica, ou seja, trata-se de uma demonstração da incapacidade do sistema de preços de produzir trajetórias não-explosivas para o sistema econômico.
A teoria do dinheiro de Keynes: uma avaliação após 70 anos
Authors: Wray L. Randall
Published: September 2014

Este trabalho examina duas visões de Keynes a respeito da moeda em sua Teoria Geral (GT). A primeira é a visão mais familiar de equilíbrio de “oferta e demanda” do Capítulo 13, incorporada à macroeconomia convencional tanto na versão ISLM quanto no monetarismo de Friedman. De fato, mesmo economistas pós-keynesianos que utilizam o “motivo financiamento” ou a curva de oferta “horizontal” de dinheiro acabam adotando uma metodologia similar. A segunda visão está no Capítulo 17 da GT, onde Keynes abandona a visão “oferta e demanda de moeda” em favor da visão de preferênciapor liquidez com relação aos preços dos ativos. Esta visão lida muito melhor com o papel fundamental exercido pela moeda em restringir a demanda efetiva numa economia capitalista. Volta-se, em uma seção do trabalho, a trabalhos anteriores de Keynes (o Tratado sobre a moeda e a rascunhos da GT) para se obter uma melhor compreensão sobre suas visões a respeito da natureza da moeda.
Bancos e crédito: a abordagem pós-keynesiana de preferência pela liquidez
Authors: Paula Luiz Fernando de
Published: September 2014

O artigo objetiva apresentar a teoria da preferência pela liquidezdos bancos desenvolvida por economistas pós-keynesianos. Para tanto, procura-se desenvolver as idéias originais de Keynes sobre o assunto, para em seguida incorporar as contribuições de outros autores pós-keynesianos. As implicações desta abordagem sobre as estratégias dos bancos e sobre o volume de crédito são também exploradas no texto.
Sobre a imprevisibilidade do futuro: a teoria da probabilidade de Keynes, o conhecimento provável e a decisão de inovar
Authors: Crocco Marco
Published: September 2014

O objetivo deste artigo é mostrar que o conceito keynesiano de probabilidade pode contribuir para o entendimento do processo de introdução de inovações tal qual explicado pela abordagem neo-Schumpeteriana. A teoria da probabilidade de Keynes tem o potencial de completar a caixa de ferramentas necessáriapara analisar a decisão sobre introduzir ou não uma inovação, principalmente ao complementar a idéia de rotinas.
Metodologia de estimação da demanda por turismo doméstico no Brasil: aspectos teóricos e evidências empíricas
Authors: Andrade José Roberto de Lima
Published: September 2014

O turismo vem se constituindo atualmente em uma das mais importantesatividades econômicas do mundo, englobando os diversos componentese motivações da viagem. O processo de escolha do consumidor dosprodutos turísticos vem sendo abordado na literatura sob os mais variadosaspectos. O artigo enfatiza a abordagem econômica da demanda por turismoe sua evidência empírica ao mercado de turismo doméstico no Brasil.
A política científica e tecnológica brasileira: três enfoques teóricos, três projetos políticos
Authors: Dias Rafael , Dagnino Renato
Published: September 2014

A matriz analítico-conceitual que marcou a política científica etecnológica após a 2a Guerra Mundial está associada à concepção linear darelação entre ciência, tecnologia e desenvolvimento. Ainda hoje, essa concepçãomantém sua força dentro da esfera da política científica e tecnológica.Existem, contudo, três enfoques que se propõem a questionar essa visão: oenfoque evolucionário (comumente tido como o único enfoque crítico), o pensamentolatino-americano em ciência, tecnologia e sociedade (PLACTS) e oque aqui chamamos de visão alternativa. O trabalho se propõe a analisarbrevemente cada um desses enfoques estilizados, estabelecendo algumas conexõesentre essas diferentes visões da relação ciência-tecnologia-desenvolvimentoe projetos políticos igualmente distintos.
Evolução da distribuição familiar da riqueza imobiliária no Brasil: 1995-2004
Authors: Tafner Paulo , Carvalho Márcia De
Published: September 2014

A partir dos dados disponíveis nas PNADs para os anos de 1995 e2004, o trabalho estima o valor do aluguel residencial, utilizando o métodode preço hedônico. A partir dos coeficientes estimados dos atributos físicos e dalocalização dos imóveis, imputa um valor de aluguel para os imóveis nãoalugados. Admitida a hipótese de constância na relação valor de aluguel/valor do imóvel, obtém-se o valor do estoque de residências. Usando as informaçõesde aluguéis pagos e recebidos – disponíveis nas PNADs – apropria-se acada unidade familiar o valor de estoque em residência. Com os resultadosobtidos e feita a ressalva das famílias que não tendo imóvel alugam imóveiscujo valor é muito superior ao valor médio dos imóveis alugados, calcula-se oÍndice de Gini para os dois anos analisados. O trabalho conclui que entre osdois anos analisados houve expressiva melhora no perfil da distribuição dovalor do estoque de residências, tendo o Gini passado de 0,69 para 0,61.
Relacionamentos entre empresas na cadeia de suprimentos de uma montadora de motores – uma discussão a partir dos elementos da Teoria de Custos de Transação
Authors: Maia Jonas Lucio , Cerra Aline Lamon
Published: September 2014

Este trabalho tem por objetivo compreender os relacionamentos“montadora–fornecedor” verificados dentro de uma cadeia de suprimentos do setorautomobilístico brasileiro, com base nos pressupostos e variáveis da Economia deCustos de Transação. A Economia de Custos de Transação tem se mostrado umateoria importante para pesquisa em cadeias, podendo ser utilizada para avaliar aqualidade e a riqueza das relações entre empresas; considerar as implicações dasescolhas organizacionais em desenvolver uma atividade internamente à empresa,no mercado ou através de formas híbridas, entre outras. Os principais resultadosindicam que (1) as montadoras utilizam relação híbrida com seus fornecedores, queem momentos se aproxima da concorrência “latente” e em momentos se aproximada cooperação, (2) a questão da desverticalização afeta diretamente a assimetriainformacional existente entre as partes e (3) a relação entre especificidade de ativose comportamento oportunista é mediada por questões como volumes da transação e maximização de investimentos anteriores.
A agricultura nas negociações da Rodada Doha e suas implicações para o Brasil
Authors: Rodrigues Tatiana S. Fukuda , Paula Nilson M. de
Published: September 2014

A análise desenvolvida neste artigo trata da evolução do comércio com ênfase nas negociações multilaterais, desde a criação do GATT em 1948, até a presente Rodada Doha de negociações da OMC. Para tanto, destaca-se o papel das instituições na construção de um ambiente mais propíciopara o livre comércio, particularmente na agricultura. Afinal este tem sido um setor crucial, não apenas para o avanço das negociações em curso, mas também para as relações comerciais do Brasil. Adicionalmente, a agricultura tem sido um dos setores mais protegidos no comércio mundial, tendo estado fora da regulamentação do GATT até a Rodada Uruguai, quando foi aprovado o acordo sobre agricultura, implementado a partir de 1995. Tendo em vista o curto alcance de seus resultados em termos de diminuição de subsídios e tarifas à agricultura, este setor de atividades continua no centro do impasse que temmarcado a Rodada Doha. É em grande parte devido a isso que a grande expectativa de uma maior liberalização do comércio deu lugar a uma incerteza generalizada quanto a um avanço satisfatório nas negociações.