An Application of Scenario Planning to Explore the Plausible Future of Food Tourism: The case of Mauritius, a Small Island Developing State
Authors:   , Dabeedooal Yeshna Jessie 
Published: March 2022

<p>Mauritius, a Small Island Developing State in the Indian Ocean, relies on the tourism industry as a major pillar of its economy. With a focus essentially on the sun, sand and sea paradigm, resort tourism relying on beachfront hotels, is the most developed form of tourism in the island. Nonetheless, international reports point out that Mauritius is one of the most vulnerable island nations in the wake of climate change and also one of the least resilient one. Loss of sea front, marine erosion and enhanced cyclonic weathers are a few dangers which directly affect seafront hotels. Moreover, with the global pandemic related to COVID-19, the tourism industry in the Island was at a complete stop and many hotels had to fire their staff leading to an unprecedented social crisis as the tourism industry accounting for more than 10% of the tourism labour force. Such situation accentuates the need for foresightedness tourism policies. The strategic plan 2018-2021 from the Ministry of Education together with the main policymakers points out to the need to further develop cultural and sustainable forms of tourism. One conspicuous aspect of the strategic plan is the relative lack of focus on food tourism although literature points out that this form of tourism is one of the most important drivers of tourism. Food tourism has also been hailed as one form of tourism which bring forth the dynamic, experiential-based cultural dimensions of a country, a hallmark feature of sustainable approach to tourism. This study seeks at providing a direction to policymakers towards the potential of food tourism in Mauritius. To this end, the study adopts scenario planning methodology and resource-based theory to explore future scenarios for food tourism in Mauritius in the Post-COVID 19 era and under the imminent menace of climate change. Using the Delphi method, a group of experts were interviewed and with the identification of two main uncertainties, then a four-quadrant scenario framework was developed based upon the drivers of change. Each scenario is explicitly explained and projected to illustrate food tourism in 2050. Scenario 1-Blended Culture -Terre D’abondance et cuisine de terroir d’exception is based on the continuation quadrant where the island is promoting its rich food cultural diversity and street foods. Scenario 2- Sharing Wilderness on a plate highlights how the destination has an abundance of food resources however climate change has receded the coastal areas. The scenario proposes a shared type of food tourism where the tourist will participate in the preparation of their food by hunting. Scenario 3 - Experience Exotic and Authentic Food festival- Retour aux sources emphasises the difficulty of having food resources and no mitigation. Hence on these, the destination is offering an exotic food experience and food festivals for a niche type of market. Scenario 4 - Integration of Food and science portrays a transformed form of modern food tourism where food resources are created by new methods of production. Through an analysis of the strategic implication, it shows the potential opportunities and risks associated with each scenario which can guide policy makers for a successful implementation of Food tourism for 2050. Last, the study highlights the theoretical contribution of the study. The impact of Covid-19 together with climate change will transform the tourism industry and this thesis act as an opportunity in terms of sustainable tourism. It also focuses on scenarios, what food tourism may be like in a pluralistic perspective. It can also be generalised to other SIDS that might suffer from same level of uncertainties for their future of tourism. The methodology also helps to bridge the gap between theory and practice for the future of food tourism.</p>