bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Constrained Entropy Models; Solvability and Sensitivity
Authors: Dinkel John J. , Kochenberger G. A.
Published: November 2008

The paper presents an analysis of the constrained entropy maximization model from the point of view of geometric programming. While the original entropy maximization model consists of maximizing the entropy of a system subject only to constraints that the solution be a probability measure, the models considered here contain an additional set of linear constraints. These constrained models have been the subject of a wide range of applications in transportation and geographical analysis. Using the duality theory of geometric programming, we develop the dual to the constrained model, which as in the case of the original model is unconstrained except for the positivity restrictions on the dual variables. In addition, this duality theory enables us to study the solvability of the model and the impact of changes in the model parameters on the solution. The sensitivity analysis provides approximations to the optimal solution to problems with perturbed data without requiring the re-solving of the model. This analysis is appropriate for changes in the right hand sides of the constraints, the coefficients in the constraints, and the objective function coefficients. Since the constraint coefficients correspond to the objective function exponents in the primal geometric program, the analysis provides a means of studying such changes is any geometric program. The computational aspects of the procedures are illustrated on a trip distribution problem.
Assumptional Analysis: A Methodology for Strategic Problem Solving
Authors: Mitroff Ian I. , Emshoff James R. , Kilmann Ralph H.
Published: November 2008

This paper deals with the critical role that assumptions play in strategic planning and strategic problem forming. It attempts to formulate a methodology or systematic procedure for (1) uncovering (surfacing), (2) analyzing the effect, and (3) challenging key policy assumptions. The paper shows how the dialectical approach to strategic planning first suggested by Churchman (Churchman, C. W. 1971. The design of inquiring systems. Basic Books, New York; Churchman, C. W. 1968. The systems approach. Delacorte, New York.) and Mason (Mason, R. O. 1969. A dialectical approach to strategic planning. Management Sci. 15 B-403–B-414.) can put on a more systematic and operational basis such that it can serve as a useful methodology for addressing ill-structured, i.e., difficult-to-define, problems.
Optimal Inventory Ordering Policy with Tax Payments Under FIFO and LIFO Accounting Systems
Authors: Cohen Morris A. , Pekelman Dov
Published: November 2008

This paper considers the impact of tax liabilities on optimal inventory policy through the medium of FIFO and LIFO tax valuation schemes in a stochastic environment. The relationship between inventory policy and changes in either the rate of inflation or the corporate tax rate is investigated. By using recent results from the field of perishable product inventory systems, closed from expressions for expected profit are generated for both FIFO and LIFO. An extensive analysis of die one period problem indicates the impact of each valuation scheme on inventory ordering. Optimal policies are derived for the multi-period problem where prices, costs and demand distributions vary with time. In the case of FIFO a nonstationary optimal myopic policy is generated. In the case of LIFO optimal order policy is nonstationary and nonmyopic. The paper concludes with an example which illustrates the dynamic response of order policy under both schemes. The example indicates that the cost of ignoring taxes in optimizing order levels can be substantial, and that policy obtained under FIFO may be a reasonable approximation to the LIFO policy. The benefit of switching from FIFO to LIFO is also quantified.
An Analysis of the EEOCC “Four-Fifths” Rule
Authors: Greenberg Irwin
Published: November 2008

The U.S. Equal Employment Opportunity Coordinating Council is responsible for the elimination of inconsistencies among the operation of the agencies and departments that enforce Federal equal employment opportunity laws. It has recently promulgated quantitative guidelines to determine if employee selection and promotion rules have a disporportionate impact on a racial, ethnic, or sex group. These guidelines state that if the observed promotion or selection rate for any group is less than four-fifths of the rate for the group with the highest rate, then disproportionate impact will be concluded. In this paper a quantitative analysis of the guidelines is performed which demonstrates that their application in many situations can lead to large statistical errors of both kinds: type I errors (concluding that there is disproportionate impact on a group when in fact all groups have the same probability of passing) and type II errors (concluding that there is no disproportionate impact on a group when in fact there is). Thus, a large number of actual cases of discrimination will go undetected and truly nondiscriminatory practice will be erroneously deemed discriminatory a substantial fraction of the time. Type I and type II errors are presented for a range of actual passing rates for samples from two groups and three groups. Also presented, for up to ten groups, are the numbers of applicants per group required such that the expected minimum observed passing rate is at least four-fifths of the expected minimum observed rate, given that all groups have the same actual passing rate.
The Effect of Cognitive Style and Report Format on Task Performance: The MIS Design Consequences
Authors: Lusk Edward J. , Kersnick Michael
Published: November 2008

The effective design and implementation of an information system is a complex undertaking which requires management to anticipate the possible effects of different psychological dispositions and various reports on task performance. To provide information that management may use in developing an information system, a group of subjects (n = 403) were (1) classified as high or low analytic depending upon their score on the Embedded Figures Test, (2) given five reports which they ranked according to their perception of the degree of difficulty they expected each report to present in performing a task, and (3) required to answer 20 questions with one of the previously ranked reports. The five reports used in the experiment were a raw data report (Report A) and four reports generated from the information presented in Report A. Report B was a tabular report of the percentage relationship of the raw data. Reports C, D, and E were a histogram of the raw data, a cumulative frequency graphic of the raw data and a cumulative frequency graphic of the percentages respectively. Therefore, there were two groups: High and Low Analytics, five reports and one task. The results of the experiment were (1) the perceived complexity rankings (lowest to highest) for both the high and low analytics were Report A, Report B, Report C, Report D, and Report E, (2) individuals classified as high analytic outperformed the individuals classified as low analytic on each of the five reports, and (3) for both the high and low analytics task performance decreased as perceived complexity increased. The implications of these results are (1) for tasks similar to the one tested that task performance may be enhanced by assigning such tasks to high analytic individuals, (2) individuals are able to perceive those reports which are likely to cause performance difficulties, and (3) using the report perceived as least complex is likely to be a valid report specification rule.
Group Preference Aggregation Rules Based on Strength of Preference
Authors: Dyer James S. , Sarin Rakesh K.
Published: November 2008

In many decision problems, the consequences of an action may impact several individuals, and the decision may be based on the preferences of those who are affected. The rule for aggregating these individual preferences is called a group preference aggregation rule.

In this paper we present a theory for group preference aggregation rules based on the concept of strength of preference. This concept is operationalized by asking an individual to order differences in his strength of preference between pairs of alternatives. A preference representation function that reproduces this ordering is called a measurable value function. In general we cannot expect a measurable value function and a utility function obtained from lottery questions to bear any particular relation to each other.

A group preference aggregation rule based on the measurable value functions of individuals can be used under conditions of certainty without introducing lotteries into the preference assessment procedure. In addition, it facilitates the difficult problem of making interpersonal utility comparisons.

We also establish several relationships between the group preference aggregation rules based on measurable value functions and previous work based on risky utility functions. These relationships allow either one of these preference aggregation rules to be transformed into the other after obtaining only a minimal amount of information from a group member. These relationships also raise several fundamental questions about the effects of the introduction of risk on the preferences of an individual and on the preferences of a group. We offer some preliminary comments and results regarding these issues.
A Conceptual Framework for the Design of Organizational Control Mechanisms
Authors: Ouchi William G.
Published: November 2008

The problem of organization is the problem of obtaining cooperation among a collection of individuals or units who share only partially congruent objectives. When a team of individuals collectively produces a single output, there develops the problem of how to distribute the rewards emanating from that output in such a manner that each team member is equitably rewarded. If equitable rewards are not forthcoming, members will, in future cooperative ventures, adjust their efforts in such a manner that all will be somewhat worse off (cf. Simon [Simon, H. A. 1964. On the concept of organizational goal. Admin. Sci. Quart. 9 (1, June) 1–22.], Marschak [Marschak, Thomas A. 1965. Economic theories of organization. J. G. March, ed. Handbook of Organizations. Rand McNally, Chicago, Ill., 423–450.], Alchian and Demsetz [Alchian, Armen A., Harold Demsetz. 1972. Production, information costs, and economic organization. Amer. Econom. Rev. 62 777–795.).

It is the objective of this paper to describe three fundamentally different mechanisms through which organizations can seek to cope with this problem of evaluation and control. The three will be referred to as markets, bureaucracies, and clans. In a fundamental sense, markets deal with the control problem through their ability to precisely measure and reward individual contributions; bureaucracies rely instead upon a mixture of close evaluation with a socialized acceptance of common objectives; and clans rely upon a relatively complete socialization process which effectively eliminates goal incongruence between individuals. This paper explores the organizational manifestations of these three approaches to the problem of control.

The paper begins with an example from a parts distribution division of a major company which serves to give some flesh to what might otherwise be overly-abstract arguments. Through the example, each of the three mechanisms is explicated briefly and discussed in terms of two prerequisite conditions, one social and the other informational. The more concrete organization design features of the three forms are considered, along with some consideration of the unique costs accompanying each form.
A Markovian Queue with N Servers Subject to Breakdowns and Repairs
Authors: Neuts Marcel F. , Lucantoni David M.
Published: November 2008

We study a queue with N servers, who may break down and require repair at a facility, which has c repair crews. Under exponential assumptions, this model has an algorithmically tractable solution. It is then in fact a particular case of the M/M/N queue in a Markovian environment.

The purpose of this paper is twofold. As a novel methodological contribution, the stationary distributions of various waiting times are discussed. Although fairly involved, these distributions may be computed by classical numerical methods. The second and primary purpose is to demonstrate the utility of interactive computation in answering questions on the behavior, design and control of certain service systems.

By numerical examples, we shall show that during periods when most servers are down, large build-ups may occur which affect the queue adversely for a long time afterwards. We also find that such build-ups are aggravated by reducing the number of repair crews, but may be attenuated by reducing the arrival rates during periods when the service has deteriorated.

Potential applications are in manpower planning, as in a typing pool where persons may be absent and in determining the size of a battery of machines, where machines may be inoperative due to maintenance and repair. More generally, this paper draws attention to qualitative behavior of queues with randomly varying service rates. Such queues may exhibit substantial and long-lived fluctuations, which are not always apparent from simulation runs and which are also typically not present in the more classical queueing models.
Comparison of a Multi-Pass Heuristic Decomposition Procedure with Other Resource-Constrained Project Scheduling Procedures
Authors: Holloway Charles A. , Nelson Rosser T. , Suraphongschai Vichit
Published: November 2008

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate a heuristic procedure for solving the resource-constrained project scheduling problem. Projects that involve completing a sequence of well defined activities, some of which can be done in parallel, often are characterized by capacity limitations on some resources. This means schedules generated using standard critical path methods often are not feasible. Resource leveling procedures have been developed to improve the schedule. Formulating the problem with explicit resource constraints is another, more direct, way to accommodate limited capacities. Solution procedures to this problem include simple, single-pass heuristics and branch-and-bound optimization procedures. The former are easy to apply but may yield poor results. The latter provide optimal results but require a substantial amount of computation even for small problems.

The procedure evaluated here is representative of a class of multi-pass procedures based on problem decomposition. A brief outline of the heuristic procedure and the method of decomposition is given in the paper. It is applicable to single or multiple project networks. Comparisons were made between this procedure and single-pass heuristics and branch-and-bound procedures. Solutions found using the multi-pass procedure were comparable to those obtained with a branch-and-bound optimization algorithm while computing times were significantly shorter. Analysis based on the sample of problems tested indicates the procedure is much less sensitive to problem size than the branch-and-bound algorithm. The evaluation, consisting of testing procedures using a set of test problems, is described in detail. The overall results suggest that the method and procedure used may provide an effective means of computing schedules for resource-constrained projects.
Note—The Single Facility Minimax Distance Problem Under Stochastic Location of Demand
Authors: Carbone Robert , Mehrez Abraham
Published: November 2008

This note extends the minimum maximum distance single facility location problem to situations where the locations of prospective demand points are considered to be random variables. Two types of decision are analyzed for this setting under the assumption of independent and identical normal distributions with the same means: locating on the basis of an expected value criterion or adopting a wait-and-see policy. Through the concept of the expected value of perfect information (EVPI), it is shown for one-dimensional location decisions that a substantial reduction in maximum distance may be realized by the adoption of a wait-and-see policy.
A Coverage Function for Interval Estimators of Simulation Response
Authors: Schruben Lee W.
Published: November 2008

The coverage function presented here measures confidence interval robustness. It is suggested that this function be used in the analysis of empirical interval estimator studies. Some approaches for determining appropriate sample sizes in such experiments are also discussed. A short study of two procedures for constructing confidence intervals for a simulation response is offered as an example.
Simple Ranking Methods for Allocation of One Resource
Authors: Zipkin Paul H.
Published: November 2008

This paper considers optimization problems with a nonlinear-additive objective function and a single linear constraint. Such models have numerous direct applications and serve as subproblems in procedures for more complex problems. Some important portfolio selection problems can be expressed in this form, and the problem also arises in economic theory.

Several authors have noticed independently that special cases and variants of the problem can be solved exactly by surprisingly simple, finite algorithms. The major purpose of this paper is to present these results in a unified framework, which then permits substantial generalizations and extensions. The results lend themselves to an appealing managerial interpretation, similar to the rate-of-return cutoff rules of capital budgeting.
Consumer Preference Judgments: An Exposition with Empirical Applications
Authors: Eliashberg Jehoshua
Published: November 2008

The modeling of preferences for multiattribute alternatives has received an increased attention in marketing (consumer behavior) and management science (decision analysis). The research in the two disciplines is closely related and can be applied to predicting consumer preferences for multiattribute options. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate and discuss several preference models and measurement techniques that have been used mainly by decision analysts and which are applicable in the consumer preference judgment context. A pilot application of the measurement techniques which provides some insight on their relative predictive accuracy and on the usefulness of empirically verifying the conditions necessary for the existence of the preference models is reported, too.
Translation of Gambles and Aspiration Level Effects in Risky Choice Behavior
Authors: Payne John W. , Laughhunn Dan J. , Crum Roy
Published: November 2008

Two recent models of risky decision making developed by Fishburn (Fishbijrn, P. C. 1977. Mean-risk analysis with risk associated with below-target returns. Amer. Econ. Rev. 67 116–126.) and by Kahneman and Tversky (Kahneman, D., A. Tversky. 1979. Prospect theory: an analysis of decisions under risk. Econometrica 47 262–291.) have emphasized the importance of a target return or a reference point in determining preferences and choices among gambles. Target returns and reference points represent variations on the concept of an aspiration level, an old idea in theories of decision making. Additional evidence on the need to incorporate such a concept in the analysis of risky choice behavior is presented in this paper. In three experiments, the relationship of pairs of gambles to an assumed reference point was varied by adding or subtracting a constant amount from all outcomes. The results demonstrate that such translations of outcomes can result in the reversal of choice within pairs of gambles. The effect of such translations on choice depended on whether the size of the translation was sufficient to insure that one gamble in a pair had outcome values either all above or all below the reference point, while the other gamble had outcome values both above and below the reference point. A model of the effects of a reference point on risky choice behavior is presented and the results are also discussed in terms of the Fishburn and Kahneman-Tversky models, as well as other theories of risky decision making.
The Impact of the Mode of Information Presentation on Learning and Performance
Authors: Lucas Henry C. , Nielsen Norman R.
Published: November 2008

A logistics management game was modified to provide an information/decision system that would serve as a framework for experimentally investigating the impact of the mode of information presentation. Subjects played the game by making a series of weekly decisions during each of two playing sessions. The experimental treatments were varied between sessions to permit the testing of a set of hypotheses pertaining to the impact that information and its mode of presentation might have upon performance and the rate of performance change. Data on player decisions and simulated results (performance) were collected automatically by the modified gaming system while data on player backgrounds were collected via questionnaires.

The experimental data provide some support for hypotheses relating to the superiority of display terminals and the influence of user background on exhibited learning. The data does not, however, provide solid support for hypotheses relating to the impact of additional information or of graphical forms of information presentation. Analysis of the experimental data suggests the need to consider individual and user-group differences in systems design. User background differences may also considerably complicate the design of graphical output for information systems.

Experimental research involving human interaction with information systems is a very difficult undertaking. The experiences gained from this project and reported in this paper should aid other researchers in designing effective experiments. The findings discussed also point toward several areas offering potential for further research.

Many different variables influence the development and use of computer-based information systems. This paper presents the results of an experiment designed to examine the impact of the amount of information provided, the mode of presentation of that information, and the differences in personal backgrounds on the performance and rate of performance change for users of a computer-based system.
Models for Affirmative Action Planning and Evaluation
Authors: Hopkins David S. P.
Published: November 2008

Two models are presented as aids in setting realistic numerical goals for the employment of women and minority persons, and in evaluating progress towards meeting such goals. By modelling personnel flows in terms of hiring and persistence rates for various job categories, we develop a consistent structure for projecting future employment patterns as a function of hiring goals. These hiring goals themselves are made to depend on the growth-rate of staff size, the relative availability of women and minority candidates in the potential pool of job applicants, and the organization's policies towards equity in hiring.

The second model considers a small organizational unit with fixed staff size. By formulating the process of attrition and replacement with new hires as a Markov chain, we are able to make probability statements about the number of positions that will be occupied by women and/or minority persons at some future time. The relationship of the these probabilities to the distribution among job applicants is made explicit.

Applications of these models to faculty and staff planning at Stanford University are briefly discussed.
External Communication and Project Performance: An Investigation into the Role of Gatekeepers
Authors: Tushman Michael L. , Katz Ralph
Published: November 2008

Research indicates that certain boundary spanning individuals, labelled gatekeepers, can be an important linking mechanism between organizations and their external environments. This study investigates the role of gatekeepers in the transfer of information in a single R&D setting by comparing directly the performance of project groups with and without gatekeepers. Results indicate that gatekeepers perform a linking role only for projects performing tasks that are locally oriented, while universally oriented tasks were most effectively linked to external areas by direct project member communication. Evidence also suggests that gatekeepers do more than mediate external information; they appear to facilitate the external communication of their more local project colleagues. Direct contact and contact mediated by gatekeepers, then, are two contrasting ways to link project groups with their external areas. The relative effectiveness of these linking mechanisms is contingent on the nature of the project's work.
The Bargain Value Model and a Comparison of Managerial Implications with the Linear Learning Model
Authors: Keon John W.
Published: November 2008

A new stochastic brand choice model, the Bargain Value Model, is introduced. Using consumer panel data, the model predicts an individual household's probability of purchasing various brands as a function of the prevailing price of those brands. Based on consumer behavior constructs, the model differs sharply from the Linear Learning Model in its behavioral interpretation. This difference leads the models to have divergent managerial policy implications. After describing the Bargain Value Model, the differences between the models are explored along with some empirical results.
Priority Update Intervals and Anomalies in Dynamic Ratio Type Job Shop Scheduling Rules
Authors: Adam Nabil R. , Surkis Julius
Published: November 2008

Dynamic priority dispatching rules in job shops require the computation of all job priorities in a work center queue every time a machine in the work center becomes idle. This is extremely costly. Alternative priority update procedures are studied and comparative results in terms of performance measures and costs are reported. Ease of implementation of the various procedures in a real world job shop environment is discussed. A second problem related to an anomaly in ratio type dynamic priority rules is also studied; a simple modification to remove the anomaly is suggested and the performances of the “old” and “modified” procedures are compared.
Managerial Risk Preferences for Below-Target Returns
Authors: Laughhunn Dan J. , Payne John W. , Crum Roy
Published: November 2008

This paper reports on the risk preferences for below target returns of 224 managers from the U.S. Canada, and Europe. When only non-ruinous losses were involved, 71% of the managers were risk seeking for below target returns. The distribution of risk preferences tended to be stable over a wide range of experimental conditions: diversity of background of the managers, the size of outcomes below target, and the context of the decision process (personal versus managerial). When ruinous losses were introduced for 75 of the managers, 64% switched to risk averse behavior. Empirical findings concerning the relationship between risk preferences for below target returns and several demographic characteristics of managers are also reported.
Note—Disutility as a Probability: An Interpretation of Weighted Informational Measures
Authors: Theil Henri
Published: November 2008

It is shown that the proposal for a utility-weighted informational measure discussed by Belis, and Guiasu (Belis, M., S. Guiasu. 1968. A quantitative-qualitative measure of information in cybernetic systems. IEEE Trans. Information Theory 14 593–594.) and others can be formulated in terms of classical (unweighted) information theory by interpreting utilities or disutilities as probabilities. Aggregation properties and extensions to prior and posterior probabilities are also discussed.
Note—On “A Parsimonious Description of the Hendry System”
Authors: Rubinson Joel R. , Vanhonacker Wilfried R. , Bass Frank M.
Published: November 2008

The Hendry market structure and partitioning theory and methodology are explained and contrasted with a strictly empirical approach in this note.
Turnpike Horizons for Production Planning
Authors: Thompson Gerald L. , Sethi Suresh P.
Published: November 2008

A quadratic model for production-inventory planning was made famous by Holt, Modigliani, Muth, and Simon in 1960 in (Holt, C. C., F. Modigliani, J. F. Muth, H. A. Simon. 1960. Planning Production, Inventories, and Work Force. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.), especially for its application to a paint factory. A discrete control version of a related quadratic production-inventory model was studied by Kleindorfer, Kriebel, Thompson, and Kleindorfer in (Kleindorfer, P. R., C. H. Kriebel, G. L. Thompson, G. B. Kleindorfer. 1975. Discrete optimal control of production plans. Management Sci. 22 261–273.).

In the present paper we solve a continuous version of the model in Kleindorfer, Kriebel, Thompson, and Kleindorfer (Kleindorfer, P. R., C. H. Kriebel, G. L. Thompson, G. B. Kleindorfer. 1975. Discrete optimal control of production plans. Management Sci. 22 261–273.) in complete detail. The reason we are able to obtain a complete solution (which can rarely be done in control models) is that the linear decision rule, which is optimal here as in other quadratic models, permits the elimination of the adjoint function from the state variable equation after one differentiation of the latter. Thus the difficult two-point boundary value problem which usually arises in control problems is converted into an ordinary second order differential equation, which is readily solved.

One advantage of having a complete solution to the problem is that it is possible to determine turnpike horizon points. These correspond to zeros of the adjoint function, and have the property that if they are known exactly, then a production-inventory plan which is optimal up to the next horizon point also forms part of the overall optimal plan. In the case of cyclic demand these turnpike horizon points usually occur every half cycle. Similar horizons are likely to exist in real production-inventory problems. A planning procedure for a real problem which extends only as far as a suspected horizon has a good chance of producing an optimal or near optimal solution for that period of time.

A second advantage of having the complete solution available is that it is possible to develop a practical production-inventory system which intermingles a prediction procedure (such as the use of a finite Fourier series) with the solution procedure so that a comparison between predicted and actual inventories can be made continuously. Whenever the discrepancy between these two becomes sufficiently large, the model suggests proper corrective actions to be taken.
Integer Programming Models for Sales Resource Allocation
Authors: Zoltners Andris A. , Sinha Prabhakant
Published: November 2008

A practical conceptual framework for sales resource allocation modeling is presented in this paper. A literature review of sales resource allocation models is described in terms of this framework. The conceptual framework also lends itself to several integer programming models which may be used to address the variety of sales resource allocation decisions faced by every sales organization. A general model for sales resource allocation is developed which incorporates multiple sales resources, multiple time periods and carryover effects, non-separability, and risk.

Several actual model implementations are discussed which illustrate the practical application of the integer programming models. The model implementations utilize recent advances in integer programming theory which enables sales managers and sales representatives to quickly develop and evaluate alternative sales resource allocation strategies.
Scheduling of Network Television Programs
Authors: Horen Jeffrey H.
Published: November 2008

Maximizing average audience size is a major objective of national television networks. This paper examines the effect of scheduling programs on audience ratings. We determine the predictability of ratings and the major factors which influence ratings. We measure the extent to which ratings can be changed by rescheduling programs, and then test commonly discussed scheduling strategies and propose new strategies. Finally, we ascertain the extent to which the audience's benefit is served by a system of three major networks, each competing to maximize individual ratings.

A forecasting model based on five years of historical data estimates ratings for hypothetical schedules. A heuristic fitting procedure yields a model which has consistent estimated parameters and explains about 70% of the variance. The previous year's ratings of a program and competing programs in its time slot are the best predictors of its rating. Also important are the day, time, and lead-in audience.

The resulting estimates are incorporated in a combinatorial model, representing the decision of a program scheduler seeking to maximize ratings. A typical sized problem of scheduling 23 programs of various lengths into a week of 40 half-hour time slots can be formulated as a 65 × 800 assignment-type integer program.

The optimizations show that rescheduling programs can, on the average, substantially increase a network's audience size (11.6%) and advertising revenue ($61 million per year). The optimal program scheduling for one network generally decreases the ratings of competing networks.

The forecasting and optimization models are then used to evaluate commonly discussed scheduling strategies: Protecting Newcomers, Starting Fast, Homogeneity, Counterprogramming, and Bridging. Of these, Counterprogramming is the only strategy that is presently and optimally used and justified by the model. An additional strategy, termed “Avoidance,” is discovered and theoretically justified by subadditivity in ratings. This strategy increases total audience size and benefits the viewing audience.
The Influence of Decision Style on Decision Making Behavior
Authors: Henderson John C. , Nutt Paul C.
Published: November 2008

Cognitive styles measured by the Myers-Briggs indicator were studied to isolate how style influences decision behavior. An experiment was conducted in which experienced decision makers from hospitals and firms were asked to assess several capital expansion projects. To control for environmental factors, the project summaries were tailored to be compatible or incompatible with each individual's cognitive style. Risk and information sources were also controlled in the summary by using two levels of risk, defined by the spread of the return on investment (ROI) projections, and by using personal judgements or a computer-based model to provide the ROI estimates. The decision makers assessed each project, indicating their likelihood of adopting it and their perception of its risk. The impact of style, setting (hospital or firm), and the control factors (environment, information source, and risk) were related to a decision to adopt and assessments of risk by ANOVA techniques. Cognitive style was found to be an important factor in the decision to adopt and the assessment of risk. ST (sensation-thinking) styles saw the highest risk and were reluctant to adopt the projects, while SF (sensation-feeling) styles were risk tolerant and more likely to adopt the same projects. Our results support the views of cognitive theorists, who argue that decision style is an important determinant of behavior. Decisions seem to be a function of the decision maker's cognitive makeup which differs for different psychological types.
PBDS: A Decision Support System for Regional Blood Management
Authors: Prastacos Gregory P. , Brodheim Eric
Published: November 2008

Human blood is a perishable product: in the U.S. it has a legal lifetime of 21 days from collection, during which it can be used for transfusion to a patient of the same type, and after which it has to be discarded. It is collected in units of one pint from volunteer donors at various collection sites such as a Regional Blood Center, and after a series of typing and screening tests it is shipped to Hospital Blood Banks in the region. Once at the Hospital Blood Bank, a unit is stored and is available to satisfy the random daily demand for transfusions to patients. Since not all units demanded for a patient are generally used, a unit can be issued several times during its lifetime until transfused or outdated.

Efficient management of the regional blood resources is a difficult task. In addition to the complexity of the problem, introduced by the factors outlined above, the Regional Blood Center is faced with some typical characteristics of a Health Care management problem: (i) the performance of a regional blood management system can be evaluated in terms of more than one criteria, some of which are conflicting (e.g., shortages vs. outdates), and (ii) quantitative cost measurement of the system's performance, and, therefore, comparison of alternative policies using simple cost criteria, is very difficult since the estimation of many costs involved (e.g., unavailability of blood) is purely subjective.

The two most common performance measures of a blood region are the shortage rate (i.e., the percentage of days when “supplementary” deliveries have to be made to satisfy a hospital's demand), and the outdate rate (i.e., the percentage of a hospital's supply that becomes outdated) for the hospitals in the region. The system described in this paper (PBDS) has been designed so as to provide a decision support mechanism to the Regional Blood Center to address the following fundamental inventory management questions related to these measures: (i) what are the minimum achievable outdate and shortage targets that can be set for the region, (ii) what is the distribution policy to achieve those targets, and (iii) what should the level of regional supply be in order to achieve alternative targets.

The system is based on a mathematical programming model whose primary objective is to optimize the allocation of the regional blood resources while observing policy constraints. It is characterized by (i) a centralized management of blood, rather man management by individual hospitals, (ii) prescheduled deliveries, and (iii) a distribution system according to which blood is “rotated” among the hospitals.

PBDS has been implemented in the 38 hospital region of Long Island, New York, where it has been operational for 3 years. It has established a routine management, and has drastically reduced the outdating and shortage incidents in the region. By now, it is completely computerized, and plans are being made for its introduction to other regions in the U. S. and abroad.
Marketing Applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process
Authors: Wind Yoram , Saaty Thomas L.
Published: November 2008

Several marketing applications of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) are reviewed. The paper starts with a brief description of this process, which was developed by Thomas Saaty in 1971, including an eight-point outline of how to apply it. The thrust of the paper is a discussion of a number of illustrative applications of the AHP covering the following areas: the portfolio decisions of a firm whose management is concerned with the determination of the desired target portfolio and allocation of resources among its components, determination of the directions for new product development, and generation and evaluation of marketing mix strategies.

Various suggestions for additional research on the AHP and its marketing applications are highlighted.
Modeling and Resolution of the Medium Term Energy Generation Planning Problem for a Large Hydro-Electric System
Authors: Hanscom Melville A. , Lafond Louis , Lasdon Leon , Pronovost Gaston
Published: November 2008

This paper is concerned with the modeling and resolution of the energy generation planning problem of a large hydroelectric system for a horizon up to two years, with emphasis on hydro plant generation, hydro system aggregation, and objective function modeling. The problem has been formulated as a deterministic discrete-time optimal control problem, with linear transition equations, a highly nonlinear objective, and bounds on both the state and the control variables. The solution algorithm is of the reduced gradient type, with the control variables nonbasic to provide good conditioning. Because of the linear relationship between the state and control variables, the set of feasible directions at a point is a polyhedral convex cone and the bounds both on the state and control variables can be accounted for by means of an algorithm for the orthogonal projection of the gradient on the cone. Some computational experience with this large-scale non-linear program is given, followed by a discussion of implementation.
Linear Multiple Objective Problems with Interval Coefficients
Authors: Bitran Gabriel R.
Published: November 2008

In this paper we consider linear multiple objective programs with coefficients of the criteria given by intervals. This class of problems is of practical interest since in many instances it is difficult to determine precisely the coefficients of the objective functions. A subproblem to test if a feasible extreme point is efficient in the problem considered is obtained. A branch and bound algorithm to solve the subproblem as well as computational results are provided. Extensions are discussed.
A Comparison of Optimal and Adaptive Decision Mechanisms in an Organizational Setting
Authors: Neave Edwin H. , Petersen Edward R.
Published: November 2008

This paper uses simulation experiments to compare optimal and adaptive decision mechanisms for firms modelled as operating in a duopoly. Optimal decision policies are derived using a dynamic programming approach based on the Cyert-DeGroot (Cyert, R. M., M. H. DeGroot. 1970. Muhiperiod decision models with alternating choice as a solution to the duopoly problem. Quart J. Econom. 84 410–429.) duopoly models, while the adaptive decision mechanism uses the Cyert-March behavioral theory of the firm (Cyert, Richard, James March. 1963. A Behavioral Theory of the Firm. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey.). Using a cetera paribus approach that unequivocally establishes causality, the simulations develop conditions under which adaptive decision processes generate profit performance comparable to that generated by normative models. The simulations suggest that good organizational performance requires both good decision making processes and efficient operation of the organization, that good performance can be achieved in at least three ways: by employing optimal decision processes; by the use of adaptive processes in a highly competitive environment; or by the use of adaptive processes when management has high aspirations. The implications of these findings for implementing management science studies of organization decision-making are considered.
Variance Analysis Procedures as Motivational Devices
Authors: Baiman Stanley , Demski Joel S.
Published: November 2008

Traditional standard cost variance analysis procedures are examined as motivational devices in a principal-agent model. The reexpressing of a cost realization into components (such as individual factor price and quantity variances) is shown to be useful if an incentive problem exists and if the separate components are differentially correlated with the agent's behavior. Similarly, the investigation of selected variances is shown to have desirable motivational effects. However, the optimal variance investigation policy is shown to be far more subtle than those found in single-person analyses.
Note—Optimal Inventories Based on Job Completion Rate for Repairs Requiring Multiple Items
Authors: Smith Stephen A. , Chambers John C. , Shlifer Eli
Published: November 2008

A model is formulated for optimizing multi-item inventories for repair of field equipment based on holding costs and the probability of job completion without stockout. This results in a different type of objective function from those found in most inventory problems in that the contributions of different line items are not separable. It is shown, however, that the optimal policy has the same form as the one that results from standard marginal analysis solutions in which the objective function is separable.
Diagnostic Analysis of a Production and Distribution System
Authors: Hax Arnoldo C. , Majluf Nicolas S. , Pendrock Mark
Published: November 2008

This paper reports on a diagnostic study completed by a large firm in the consumer goods sector. This study is aimed at evaluating the production and distribution planning system, the quality of the forecasting system, and the existing levels of inventory. Aggregate models are presented to assess opportunities for improvements in those areas. A proposal for the design of a new production and distribution system, that follows a hierarchical approach, is reviewed. Recommendations for managerial actions are discussed.
Optimal Resource Allocation Between Spot and Package Demands
Authors: Kinberg Yoram , Rao Ambar G. , Sudit Ephraim F.
Published: November 2008

This paper deals with the problem of allocating fixed resources between two types of demands; (a) spot demand; and (b) package (subscription) demand—demand that is satisfied by selling usage rights over a prespecified time period prior to actual consumption. In Model 1, a probabilistic spot demand for a single resource, stationary over time, is assumed together with externally determined spot and package pricing. It is shown that the optimal (profit maximizing) policy is to sell all the packages in the first period and the optimal number of packages to offer is derived. Model 1 is extended to the case when the package offers rights to any one of a number M of resources at a given time; similar conclusions are obtained. In Model 2, package price is considered to be a decision variable. It is shown that the optimal price should be monotonically nondecreasing over time, implying that the number of packages offered for sale each period will not increase over time. Finally, managerial uses of the proposed models for entertainment, leisure and tourist services are reviewed.
Expected Utility and the Truncated Normal Distribution
Authors: Norgaard R. , Killeen T.
Published: November 2008

This article demonstrates that: (1) When a normally distributed decision variable is combined with an analytic utility function (one with derivatives of all orders and a power series expansion involving those derivatives), the expected utility can be expressed in powers of μ and σ2. (2) In the case of the normal model, when the tails of the distribution do not reflect reality in the mind of a decision-maker, a truncated normal model is a possible alternative. (3) If the appropriate model is the truncated normal distribution, then the expected utility is approximately a linear function of μ and σ for several important classes of risk averse utility functions. (4) The negative exponential is an especially useful utility function since it has a simple closed form for both the truncated and nontruncated models, and since it gives an ordering similar to those of the log, arctangent or power utility functions.
A Framework for Research in Computer-Based Management Information Systems
Authors: Ives Blake , Hamilton Scott , Davis Gordon B.
Published: November 2008

The paper presents a comprehensive framework for research in Management Information Systems (MIS). The necessity for a more comprehensive research framework is derived from a review of past research frameworks. The new framework is validated by mapping 331 MIS doctoral dissertations into its research categories. The dissertations are also classified by research methodology employed.

The comprehensive MIS research model is useful not only in understanding and classifying MIS research but also in generating potential hypotheses for future research. Hypothesis generation using the model is explained and illustrated.