bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Open Higher Order Continuous-Time Dynamic Model with Mixed Stock and Flow Data and Derivatives of Exogenous Variables
Authors: Nowman K. Ben
Published: March 2009

This paper is concerned with deriving formulae for higher order derivatives of exogenous variables for use in estimating the parameters of an open secondorder continuous time model with mixed stock and flow data and first and second order derivatives of exogenous variables which are not observable. This should provide the basis for the future estimation of continuous time models in a range of applied areas using the new Gaussian estimation computer program developed by Nowman [4].
The Exact Likelihood Function for an Empirical Job Search Model
Authors: Christensen Bent Jesper , Kiefer Nicholas M.
Published: March 2009

The exact likelihood function for a prototypal job search model is analyzed. The optimality condition implied by the dynamic programming framework is fully imposed. Using the optimality condition allows identification of an offer arrival probability separately from an offer acceptance probability. The estimation problem is nonstandard. The geometry of the likelihood function in finite samples is considered, along with asymptotic properties of the maximum likelihood estimator.
Errata
Authors: Zinde-Walsh Victoria
Published: March 2009

There are some errors in the paper by Victoria Zinde-Walsh, “Some Exact Formulae for Autoregressive Moving Average Processes,” Econometric Theory 4 (1988): 384–402. The following is a list of corrections.

On page 393 the τ * τ matrices El,E2 should be replaced by their transposes ,, respectively, throughout. In (3.21) the expression (S3 – λλA3) should be replaced by (S3 – λλA3) in the definitions of both T1, and T3. In (3.8), (3.21), (5.1), and (5.2) the entry in the bottom right-hand corner should be pre- and post-multiplied by λ. In (3.6) the matrix is obtained as the negative of the matrix denoted in the previous section 3.1. In (3.19) the top bar was omitted in Ē2. The top bar was also omitted in Ē1 on the second to last line of p. 392. In (5.1) D′−1 rather than D−l should appear in all the matrix entries in the second column; D′−1 should premultiply the parentheses in the top left and bottom right corners instead of D−1 post-multiplying them. In (5.2) transposes were omitted on D in the second entries on the first and last lines; in the second line of the second column, the second time A2 appears it should be transposed.
The Local Power of the CUSUM and CUSUM of Squares Tests
Authors: Ploberger Werner , Krämer; Walter
Published: March 2009

We consider the local power of the cusum and cusum of squares tests for structural change in the linear regression model. We show that the local power of the cusum of squares test equals its size for a wide class of structural changes, as compared to a nontrivial local power for the cusum test. The conventional ranking of these procedures is thus reversed.
Variance Components Structures for the Extreme-Value and Logistic Distributions with Application to Models of Heterogeneity
Authors: Cardell N. Scott
Published: March 2009

Two new classes of probability distributions are introduced that radically simplify the process of developing variance components structures for extremevalue and logistic distributions. When one of these new variates is added to an extreme-value (logistic) variate, the resulting distribution is also extreme value (logistic). Thus, quite complicated variance structures can be generated by recursively adding components having this new distribution, and the result will retain a marginal extreme-value (logistic) distribution. It is demonstrated that the computational simplicity of extreme-value error structures extends to the introduction of heterogeneity in duration, selection bias, limited-dependent- and qualitative-variable models. The usefulness of these new classes of distributions is illustrated with the examples of nested logit, multivariate risk, and competing risk models, where important generalizations to conventional stochastic structures are developed. The new models are shown to be computationally simpler and far more tractable than alternatives such as estimation by simulated moments. These results will be of considerable use to applied microeconomic researchers who have been hampered by computational difficulties in constructing more sophisticated estimators.
A Note on the Efficient Semiparametric Estimation of Some Exponential Panel Models
Authors: Hahn Jinyong
Published: March 2009

This paper investigates the semiparametric efficiency of the conditional maximum likelihood estimation in some panel models. The nonparametric component of the model is the unknown distribution of the fixed effect. For the exponential panel model, there exists a complete sufficient statistic for the fixed effect. When the complete sufficient statistic does not depend on the parameter of interest, the conditional maximum likelihood estimator (CMLE) achieves the semiparametric efficiency bound. In particular, the CMLE is semiparametrically efficient for the panel Poisson regression model and the panel negative binomial model.
Comovements Between Diffusion Processes
Authors: Corradi Valentina
Published: March 2009

The aim of this paper is to characterize and analyze long-run comovements among diffusion processes. Broadly speaking, if X = (X1,,X2,;t ≥ 0) is a nonergodic diffusion in R2, but there exists a linear combination, say, γ′X, that is instead ergodic in R, then we say there exists a linear stochastic comovement between the components of X. Linear diffusions exhibiting stochastic comovements admit an error correction representation. Estimation of γ and hypothesis testing, under different sampling schemes, are considered.
Existence of Unbiased Estimators of the Black/Scholes Option Price, Other Derivatives, and Hedge Ratios
Authors: Knight John L , Satchell Stephen E.
Published: March 2009

In this paper, we reexamine the question of statistical bias in the classic Black/Scholes option price where randomness is due to the use of the historical variance. We show that the only unbiased estimated option is an at the money option.
Canonical Cointegrating Regression and Testing for Cointegration in the Presence ofI(1) andI(2) Variables
Authors: Choi In , Park Joon Y. , Yu Byungchul
Published: March 2009

This paper introduces tests for the null of cointegration in the presence ofI(1) andI(2) variables. These tests use residuals from Park's (1992, Econometrica 60,119–143) canonical cointegrating regression (CCR) and the leads-and-lags regression of Saikkonen (1991, Econometric Theory 9,1–21) and Stock and Watson (1993, Econometrica 61, 783–820). Asymptotic theory for CCR in the presence ofI(1) andI(2) variables is also introduced. The distributions of the cointegration tests are nonstandard, and hence their percentiles are tabulated by using simulation. Monte Carlo simulation results to study the finite sample performance of the CCR estimates and the cointegration tests are also reported.
Testing for Causation Using Infinite Order Vector Autoregressive Processes
Authors: Lütkepohl Helmut , POSKITT D.S.
Published: March 2009

Tests for Granger-causality have been performed in numerous empirical studies. These tests are usually based on finite order vector autoregressive (VAR) processes, and the assumption is made that the model fitted to the available data corresponds to the true data generating mechanism. In the present study, the more general assumption is made that a finite order VAR model is fitted to a potentially infinite order process. The order is assumed to increase with the sample size. Asymptotic properties of tests for Granger-causality as well as other types of causality concepts are derived. Some limited small sample results are obtained using simulation methods.
Noncausality in Continuous Time Models
Authors: Comte F. , Renault E.
Published: March 2009

In this paper, we study new definitions of noncausality, set in a continuous time framework, illustrated by the intuitive example of stochastic volatility models. Then, we define CIMA processes (i.e., processes admitting a continuous time invertible moving average representation), for which canonical representations and sufficient conditions of invertibility are given. We can provide for those CIMA processes parametric characterizations of noncausality relations as well as properties of interest for structural interpretations. In particular, we examine the example of processes solutions of stochastic differential equations, for which we study the links between continuous and discrete time definitions, find conditions to solve the possible problem of aliasing, and set the question of testing continuous time noncausality on a discrete sample of observations. Finally, we illustrate a possible generalization of definitions and characterizations that can be applied to continuous time fractional ARMA processes.
The Bahadur-Kiefer Representation ofLpRegression Estimators
Authors: Arcones Miguel A.
Published: March 2009

We consider the following linear regression model:

whereare independent and identically distributed random variables, Yi, is real, Zihas values in Rm, Ui, is independent of Zi, and θ0is anm-dimensional parameter to be estimated. TheLpestimator of θ0is the value 6n such that

Here, we will give the exact Bahadur-Kiefer representation of θn, for each p ≥ 1. Explicitly, we will see that, under regularity conditions,

whereandcis a positive constant, which depends onpand on the random variableX.
A Reappraisal of Misspecified Econometric Models
Authors: Monfort Alain
Published: March 2009

This paper is the text of the 1994 Tjalling Koopmans Lecture of the Cowles Foundation. The aim of this lecture was to survey the roles of misspecified models in econometrics. Through 10 stories we show how the misspecifipation problems can be dealt with and how misspecified models can play a positive role in inference processes.
Encompassing and Specificity
Authors: Florens Jean-Pierre , Hendry David F. , Richard Jean-François
Published: March 2009

A model M is said to encompass another model N if the former can explain the results obtained by the latter. In this paper, we propose a general notion of encompassing that covers both classical and Bayesian viewpoints and essentially represents a concept of sufficiency among models. We introduce the parent notion of specificity that aims at measuring lack of encompassing. Tests for encompassing are discussed and the test statistics are compared to Bayesian posterior odds. Operational approximations are offered to cover situations where exact solutions cannot be obtained.
On the Asymptotic Power of Unit Root Tests
Authors: Abadir Karim M.
Published: March 2009

Closed forms for the distribution of some conventional statistics are given as a prelude to deriving their asymptotic power functions as unit root tests. In the process, an important distinction is drawn between two classes of statistics: one which relies on deterministic normalizations and the other which uses stochastic normalizations. When the data follow a driftless autoregression, a t test (which belongs to the second class) for a unit root is found to perform better than the other tests in small to moderate effective samples.
Noncausality and Marginalization of Markov Processes
Authors: Florens J.P. , Mouchart M. , Rolin J.M.
Published: March 2009

In this paper it is shown that a subprocess of a Markov process is markovian if a suitable condition of noncausality is satisfied. Furthermore, a markovian condition is shown to be a natural condition when analyzing the role of the horizon (finite or infinite) in the property of noncausality. We also give further conditions implying that a process is both jointly and marginally markovian only if there is both finite and infinite noncausality and that a process verifies both finite and infinite noncausality only if it is markovian. Counterexamples are also given to illustrate the cases where these further conditions are not satisfied.
Asymptotic Normality of the Least-Squares Estimates for Higher Order Autoregressive Integrated Processes with Some Applications
Authors: Choi In
Published: March 2009

Using the asymptotic normality of the least-squares estimates for the autoregressive (AR) process with real, positive unit roots and at least one stable root, we consider the asymptotic distributions of the Wald and t ratio tests on AR coefficients. In addition, we propose a method of constructing confidence intervals for the sum of AR coefficients possibly in the presence of a unit root. Using simulation methods, we compare the finite-sample cumulative distributions of the t ratios for individual autoregressive coefficients with those of standard normal distributions, and investigate the finite-sample performance of our confidence intervals and t ratios. Our simulation results show that the t ratios for nonstationary processes converge to a standard normal distribution more slowly than those for stationary processes. Further, the confidence intervals are shown to work reasonably well in moderately large samples, but they display unsatisfactory performance at small sample sizes.
Multivariate Time Series: A Polynomial Error Correction Representation Theorem
Authors: Gregoir Stéphane , Laroque Guy
Published: March 2009

We consider a class of multivariate processes which, when differenced enough, yield covariance stationary processes whose determinants of the Wold representation have I as their only root on the unit circle. A representation theorem is proved for this class of processes that generalizes the Granger representation theorem.
Distribution of the ML Estimator of an MA(1) and a local level model
Authors: Shephard Neil
Published: March 2009

Although considerable attention has recently been paid to the behavior of the maximum likelihood estimator of simple moving average models, little progress has been made in finding a good approximation to its distribution in cases where the process is close to being noninvertible. In this paper a method is produced that gives an excellent approximation to the distribution function, even in the case where the process is strictly noninvertible. Also studied is the related problem of the distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of the signalto-noise ratio in the local level model.
The Central Limit Theorem for Globally Nonstationary Near-Epoch Dependent Functions of Mixing Processes: The Asymptotically Degenerate Case
Authors: Davidson James
Published: March 2009

The central limit theorem in Davidson [2] is extended to allow cases where the variances of sequence coordinates can be tending to zero. A trade-off is demonstrated between the degree of dependence and the rate of degeneration. For the martingale difference case, it is sufficient for the sum of the variances to diverge at the rate of log n.
On Small Sample Properties of R2 in a Linear Regression Model with Multivariate t Errors and Proxy Variables
Authors: Ohtani Kazuhiro , Hasegawa Hikaru
Published: March 2009

In this paper we consider the small sample properties of the coefficient of determination in a linear regression model with multivariate t errors when proxy variables are used instead of unobservable regressors. The results show that if the unobservable variable is an important variable, the adjusted coefficient of determination can be more unreliable in small samples than the unadjusted coefficient of determination from both viewpoints of the bias and the MSE.
Estimation of a Panel Data Model in the Presence of Correlation Between Regressors and a Two-Way Error Component
Authors: Wyhowski Donald J.
Published: March 2009

In this paper, we derive an instrumental variables estimator for the generalized Hausman and Taylor [4] model with a two-way error component. We also extend the work of Breusch, Mizon, and Schmidt [2] to this model and derive two additional instrumental variables estimators. Consistency and asymptotic normality of the parameter estimator is demonstrated, allowing both the number of time periods as well as the number of individuals to increase, their ratio bounded. Consistent estimates of the variance components are discussed.
Noninformative Priors and Bayesian Testing for the AR(1) Model
Authors: Berger James O. , Yang Ruo-Yong
Published: March 2009

Various approaches to the development of a noninformative prior for the AR(1) model are considered and compared. Particular attention is given to thereference priorapproach, which seems to work well for the stationary case but encounters difficulties in the explosive case. A symmetrized (proper) version of the stationary reference prior is ultimately recommended for the problem. Bayesian testing of the unit root, stationary, and explosive hypotheses is considered also. Bounds on the Bayes factors are developed and shown to yield answers that appear to conflict with classical tests.
On Jeffreys Prior when Using the Exact Likelihood Function
Authors: Uhlig Harald
Published: March 2009

In this paper, we calculate Jeffreys prior for an AR(1) process with and without a constant and a time trend when using the exact likelihood function. We show how this prior can be calculated for the explosive region, even though the unconditional variance of the process is infinite. The calculations lend additional support to the Schotman-van Dijk [6] procedure for restricting the location and the variance of the time trend coefficient. The results show that flat priors are reasonable for the nonexplosive region in an AR(1) without a constant and a time trend where the variance is known and the initial observation is zero, i.e., for the special case studied by Sims and Uhlig [7]. Differences to a flat prior analysis remain in particular for nonzero initial observations, however. For the explosive region, the unconditional prior diverges as the root diverges, supporting findings by Phillips [4]. This paper thus provides a useful perspective as well as some reconciliation for the different stands taken in the literature about priors and Bayesian inference for potentially nonstationary time series.
Bayesian Asymptotic Theory in a Time Series Model with a Possible Nonstationary Process
Authors: Kim Jae-Young
Published: March 2009

Asymptotic normality of the Bayesian posterior is a well-known result for stationary dynamic models or nondynamic models. This paper extends the analysis to a time series model with a possible nonstationary process. We spell out conditions under which asymptotic normality of the posterior is obtained even if the true data-generation process is a nonstationary process.
On the Approximation of Saddlepoint Expansions in Statistics
Authors: Lieberman Offer
Published: March 2009

The saddlepoint approximation as developed by Daniels [3] is an extremely accurate method for approximating probability distributions. Econometric and statistical applications of the technique to densities of statistics of interest are often hindered by the requirements of explicit knowledge of the c.g.f. and the need to obtain an analytical solution to the saddlepoint defining equation. In this paper, we show the conditions under which any approximation to the saddlepoint is justified and suggest a convenient solution. We illustrate with an approximate saddlepoint expansion of the Durbin-Watson test statistic.
A Stastistical Analysis of Cointegration for I(2) Variables
Authors: Johansen Søren
Published: March 2009

This paper discusses inference for I(2) variables in a VAR model. The estimation procedure suggested consists of two reduced rank regressions. The asymptotic distribution of the proposed estimators of the cointegrating coefficients is mixed Gaussian, which implies that asymptotic inference can be conducted using the χ2distribution. It is shown to what extent inference on the cointegration ranks can be conducted using the tables already prepared for the analysis of cointegration of I(1) variables. New tables are needed for the test statistics to control the size of the tests. This paper contains a multivariate test for the existence of I(2) variables. This test is illustrated using a data set consisting of U.K. and foreign prices and interest rates as well as the exchange rate.
The Econometrics of Learning in Financial Markets
Authors: Bossaerts Peter
Published: March 2009

The asymptotic behavior of the sample paths of two popular statistics that test market efficiency are investigated when markets learn to have rational expectations. Two cases are investigated, where, should markets start out at a rational expectations equilibrium, both statistics would asymptotically generate standard Brownian motions. In a first case, where agents are Bayesian and payoffs exogenous, the statistics have identical sample paths, but they are not standard Brownian motions. Whereas the finite-dimensional distributions are Gaussian, there may be a bias if agents' initial beliefs differ. A second case is considered, where payoffs are in part endogenous, yet agents consider them to be drawn from a stationary, exogenous distribution, which they attempt to learn in a frequentist way. In that case, one statistic behaves as if the economy were at a rational expectations equilibrium from the beginning on. The other statistic has sample paths with substantially non-Gaussian finite-dimensional distributions. Moreover, there is a negative bias. The behavior of the two statistics in the second case matches remarkably well the empirical results in an investigation of the prices of six foreign currency contracts over the period 1973–1990.
Testing, Encompassing, and Simulating Dynamic Econometric Models
Authors: Gouriéroux Christian , Monfort Alain
Published: March 2009

We define, in a dynamic framework, the notions of binding functions, images, reflecting sets, indirect identification, indirect information, and encompassing. We study the properties of the notion of encompassing when the true distribution does not necessarily belong to one of the two competing models of interest. In this context we propose various test procedures of the encompassing hypothesis. Some of these procedures are based on simulations, and some of them are linked with the notion of indirect estimation (in particular, the GET and simulated GET procedures). As a by-product, we get an asymptotic theory of the tests of non-nested hypotheses in the stationary dynamic case.
On the Use of Artificial Regressions in Certain Microeconometric Models
Authors: Orme Chris
Published: March 2009

Conditional moment testscheck to see whether or not population moment equalities, implied by the null model specification, hold approximately in the sample. Asymptotically valid conditional statistics can easily be calculated from the output of a so-calledouter product of the gradient(OPG) artificial regression. However, several studies have now found that this OPG variant exhibits extremely poor finite sample behavior and that significant improvements can be made by employing the efficient variant. In the light of such evidence, this paper develops new artificial regressions that can be used to calculate the efficient variant of the test statistic. These artificial regressions can also serve several other purposes, including the construction of Hausmantype tests of parameter estimator consistency.
Laws of Large Numbers for Dependent Heterogeneous Processes
Authors: de Jong R.M.
Published: March 2009

This paper provides weak and strong laws of large numbers for weakly dependent heterogeneous random variables. The weak laws of large numbers presented extend known results to the case of trended random variables. The main feature of our strong law of large numbers for mixingale sequences is the less strict decay rate that is imposed on the mixingale numbers as compared to previous results.
Asymptotic Bias in Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Discrete Choice Models
Authors: Lee Lung-Fei
Published: March 2009

In this article, we investigate a bias in an asymptotic expansion of the simulated maximum likelihood estimator introduced by Lerman and Manski (pp. 305–319 in C. Manski and D. McFadden (eds.), Structural Analysis of Discrete Data with Econometric Applications, Cambridge: MIT Press, 1981) for the estimation of discrete choice models. This bias occurs due to the nonlinearity of the derivatives of the log likelihood function and the statistically independent simulation errors of the choice probabilities across observations. This bias can be the dominating bias in an asymptotic expansion of the simulated maximum likelihood estimator when the number of simulated random variables per observation does not increase at least as fast as the sample size. The properly normalized simulated maximum likelihood estimator even has an asymptotic bias in its limiting distribution if the number of simulated random variables increases only as fast as the square root of the sample size. A bias-adjustment is introduced that can reduce the bias. Some Monte Carlo experiments have demonstrated the usefulness of the bias-adjustment procedure.
Some Exact Results for Estimators of the Coefficients on the Exogenous Variables in a Single Equation
Authors: Skeels Christopher L.
Published: March 2009

This paper is devoted to a detailed examination of the exact sampling properties of the instrumental variables (IV) estimator of the vector of coefficients on the exogenous variables in a single structural equation. The first two moments of a linear combination of the elements of this estimator and the joint distribution of these elements are considered. Estimable bounds for the first moment that can readily be incorporated into any IV estimation package are provided. The results obtained are in terms of the same special functions as those that characterize other results for this model, allowing a unified treatment of the model.
Instrumental Variables Estimation in Misspecified Single Equations
Authors: Skeels Christopher L.
Published: March 2009

This paper examines the exact sampling behavior of a family of instrumental variables estimators of the coefficients in a single structural equation when the model has been misspecified by the incorrect inclusion or exclusion of variables. It is found that such specification errors can have implications for the structure of the exact results obtained. A brief numerical examination of the analytical results is also provided.
Spurious Break
Authors: Nunes Luis C. , Kuan Chung-Ming , Newbold Paul
Published: March 2009

A quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the break date is analyzed. Consistency of the estimator is demonstrated under very general conditions, provided that the data-generating process is not integrated. However, the asymptotic distribution of the estimator is quite different for time series that are integrated of order one. In that case, when there is no break, the analyst can be spuriously led to the estimation of a break near the middle of the time series.
Finite Sample Performance of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegrating Ranks in Vector Autoregressions
Authors: Toda Hiro Y.
Published: March 2009

This paper investigates through Monte Carlo simulation the finite sample properties of likelihood ratio tests for cointegrating ranks that were proposed by Johansen (1991, Econometrica 59, 1551–1580). We transform the model into a canonical form so that the experiment is well controlled without loss of generality and then conduct a comprehensive simulation study. As expected, the test performance is very sensitive to the value of the stationary root(s) of the process. We also find that the test performance depends crucially on the correlation between the innovations that drive the stationary and the nonstationary components of the process. We conclude that 100 observations are not sufficient to ensure reasonably good performance uniformly over the values of the nuisance parameters that affect the distributions of the test statistics.
Time Series Regression with Mixtures of Integrated Processes
Authors: Chang Yoosoon , Phillips Peter C.B.
Published: March 2009

The paper develops a statistical theory for regressions with integrated regressors of unknown order and unknown cointegrating dimension. In practice, we are often unsure whether unit roots or cointegration is present in time series data, and we are also uncertain about the order of integration in some cases. This paper addresses issues of estimation and inference in cases of such uncertainty. Phillips (1995,Econometrica63, 1023–1078) developed a theory for time series regressions with an unknown mixture of 1(0) and 1(1) variables and established that the method offully modified ordinary least squares(FM-OLS) is applicable to models (including vector autoregressions) with some unit roots and unknown cointegrating rank. This paper extends these results to models that contain some I(0), I(1), and I(2) regressors. The theory and methods here are applicable to cointegrating regressions that include unknown numbers of I(0), I(1), and I(2) variables and an unknown degree of cointegration. Such models require a somewhat different approach than that of Phillips (1995). The paper proposes a residual-based fully modified ordinary least-squares (RBFMOLS) procedure, which employs residuals from a first-order autoregression of the first differences of the entire regressor set in the construction of the FMOLS estimator. The asymptotic theory for the RBFM-OLS estimator is developed and is shown to be normal for all the stationary coefficients and mixed normal for all the nonstationary coefficients. Under Gaussian assumptions, estimation of the cointegration space by RBFM-OLS is optimal even though the dimension of the space is unknown.
Methods for Constructing Top Order Invariant Polynomials
Authors: Chikuse Yasuko
Published: March 2009

The invariant polynomials(Davis [8] and Chikuse [2] withr(r≥ 2) symmetric matrix arguments have been defined, extending the zonal polynomials, and applied in multivariate distribution theory. The usefulness of the polynomials has attracted the attention of econometricians, and some recent papers have applied the methods to distribution theory in econometrics (e.g., Hillier [14] and Phillips [22]).

The ‘top order’ invariant polynomials, in which each of the partitions ofki1 = 1,…,r, andhas only one part, occur frequently in multivariate distribution theory (e.g., Hillier and Satchell [17] and Phillips [27]). In this paper we give three methods of constructing these polynomials, extending those of Ruben [28] for the top order zonal polynomials. The first two methods yield explicit formulae for the polynomials and then we give a recurrence procedure. It is shown that some of the expansions presented in Chikuse and Davis [4] are simplified for the top order invariant polynomials. A brief discussion is given on the ‘lowest order’ invariant polynomials.
Implications of Aggregation with Common Factors
Authors: Granger C. W. J.
Published: March 2009

Many observed macrovariables are simple aggregates over a large number of microunits. It is pointed out that the generating process of the macrovariables is largely determined by the common factors in the generating mechanisms of the microvariables, even though these factors may be very unimportant at the microlevel. It follows that macrorelationships are simpler than the complete microrelationships, but that empirical investigations of microrelationships may not catch those components, containing common factors, which will determine the macrorelationship. It is also shown that an aggregate expectation or forecast is simply the common factor component of the individual agents expectations.
Usage-based vs. rule-based learning: the acquisition of word order inwh-questions in English and Norwegian
Authors: WESTERGAARD MARIT
Published: March 2009

This paper discusses different approaches to language acquisition in relation to children's acquisition of word order inwh-questions in English and Norwegian. While generative models assert that children set major word order parameters and thus acquire a rule of subject–auxiliary inversion or generalized verb second (V2) at an early stage, some constructivist work argues that English-speaking children are simply reproducing frequentwh-word+auxiliary combinations in the input. The paper questions both approaches, re-evaluates some previous work, and provides some further data, concluding that the acquisition ofwh-questions must be the result of a rule-based process. Based on variation in adult grammars, a cue-based model to language acquisition is presented, according to which children are sensitive to minor cues in the input, called micro-cues. V2 is not considered to be one major parameter, but several smaller-scale cues, which are responsible for children's lack of syntactic (over-)generalization in the acquisition process.
Chinese Military Modernization in the 1980s
Authors: Robinson Thomas W.
Published: March 2009

Since the deaths of Mao Zedong and Zhou Enlai in 1976 and the ensuing concentration on the Four Modernizations, increased attention has been paid to whether, and to what extent, China will be able, or wish, to bring its military machine and its military strategy more closely in line with that of “advanced” countries. The term usually applied to this question is “military modernization.” Such a term possesses the advantage of pointing to how changes in military investments are related to the Chinese Communist Party's overall programme of general economic recovery after the Cultural Revolution and how military affairs fit into the Party's plans for the next two to three decades. Extending the meaning of the concept and relating it to the general state of China's political economy has the additional benefit of drawing attention away from exclusive emphasis on one component of Chinese military affairs, “people's war,” that overworked and by now sterile term to which both Chinese practitioners and western analysts were slave for the past four decades. “People's war” as a strategy and a useful concept continues, but it is no longer the umbrella term for understanding Chinese military issues. Indeed, it has been modified by the Chinese themselves, under the rubric” people's war under modern conditions.”
Chinese Military Modernization: The Western Arms Connection
Authors: Stuart Douglas T. , Tow William T.
Published: March 2009

During the period 1952–57 the United States attempted to convince other western states to maintain a “China differential” in their trade with communist states. Washington argued that special export controls should be imposed against the People's Republic of China because Beijing represented a unique threat to the west as a whole and because economic warfare would contribute to the ultimate collapse of Mao Zedong's regime. It became increasingly more difficult for the U.S. to sponsor such a policy in multilateral western forums such as COCOM (the Consultative Group-Co-ordinating Committee) during this five-year period. The opposition to the China differential was organized by Great Britain, which argued that the existing system of joint export controls could not be maintained if members attempted to distinguish between communist states on political grounds. Great Britain also questioned the underlying premise of Washington's argument: that east-west trade could be manipulated for political and strategic purposes. The China differential was formally rejected by most of America's allies in 1957, and Chinese trade with West Germany, France, Italy and the United Kingdom increased by 338 per cent, 95 per cent, 214 per cent, and 153 per cent respectively from 1956 to 1958.
Innovations in Post-Secondary Education in China
Authors: Grunfeld A. Tom
Published: March 2009

It is hardly a secret that in the PRC the lack of educational opportunities beyond the secondary level has reached an acute stage due to severe shortages of facilities and instructors. While great strides have been made in the last three decades in advancing literacy and developing the educational system, the tertiary level has expanded the least in comparison. The resulting bottleneck could have dire effects, given the social consequences of creating unattainable expectations among middle school graduates.
Gu Jiegang: His Last Thirty Years
Authors: Richter Ursula
Published: March 2009

When in 1931 the late Arthur W. Hummel published his annotated translation of Gu Jiegang's Preface to theGushi-bian, only the first two volumes of thisopus magnumin modern Chinese historiography had appeared. Yet, Hummel recognized the nascent work as “an admirable introduction to the technique and temper of Chinese scholarship” of the post-May-Fourth “Chinese Renaissance” era, and its then youthful editor as an historian who, although he had never studied abroad or with a western teacher, was able to conduct such a large-scale disputation on ancient Chinese history “in the most rigorous scientific manner” owing to his “firm grasp of the best traditions of native scholarship, together with what he had learned of western methods.” Most of the leaders of the “New Culture Movement” (yet another name for the intellectual tide around May Fourth) subsequently contributed to theGushi-bian, thespiritus rectorof which Gu remained, although he had to ask colleagues for help with the editing.
The Preparations for China's 1982 Census
Authors: Aird John S.
Published: March 2009

China's third national census, taken as of 00:00 hours 1 July 1982, presumably counted more than one billion people. This census is of enormous importance not only for Chinese statistics but for world demography, because it may resolve at last the perennial doubts about the size of China's population. It will also provide many kinds of demographic data not now available from any other source in China and add greatly to the national stock of statistics. The data will support a tremendous upsurge in demographic analysis and serve as a base for future sample surveys. They will have many immediate practical applications in planning and administration. Assuming that the central instructions have been generally observed, the census will do much to enhance China's statistical credibility throughout the world.
The Political Use of Lu Xun
Authors: Goldman Merle
Published: March 2009

As dynasties have traditionally used historical figures for their own political purposes, so too has the Chinese Communist Party used famous figures for its political purposes. Perhaps, more than any other person in the 20th century, the Party has used the prestige of China's pre-eminent modern writer Lu Xun for a wide variety of political, ideological, and factional purposes. Since his death in October 1936, his life and work have been interpreted in different periods to conform to the latest mutation in party policy. And when the Party became factionalized after the Great Leap Forward, different political factions used Lu Xun to represent their conflicting political positions.
Bias in Chinese Economic Statistics: The Case of the Typical Example Investigation
Authors: Travers S. Lee
Published: March 2009

A large number of statistics on the Chinese economy are generated through complete enumeration. Essentially the entire rural population, for example, is organized into agricultural collectives or state farms, and these units are required to submit standardized reports on a range of economic and social activity. They report on several categories of production, on financial flows, and on matters such as births and deaths. There are, of course, areas of interest to Chinese planners and social scientists, the data for which are not routinely compiled at local levels, e.g. data on family consumption patterns. In China, as elsewhere, sample surveys are used to fill such information gaps. Such surveys are commonly conducted using the technique of “typical example investigation” (dianxing diaocha). While well established in China, this survey technique, which might be characterized as stratified non-random sampling, is increasingly challenged as inadequate to the needs of economic science. One recently published large scale typical example investigation generated some statistics for which are available population parameters derived from complete enumeration. Comparison of the results of the typical example investigation and the complete enumeration reveal a strong bias in the sample. The bias is shown to result from the role of social statistics in China, and provides a clear illustration of the contradictions in that role.
Some Key Aspects of the 1982 Draft Constitution of the People's Republic of China
Authors: Weng Byron
Published: March 2009

The Draft Constitution of the People's Republic of China (PRC), released on 27 April 1982, appears to be the most comprehensive, detailed (if somewhat wordy) and reasonable (as opposed to revolutionary, erratic) since 1949. Unlike its predecessors of 1975 and 1978, it is, no doubt, a product of more careful, more balanced efforts, involving the participation of scholars and legal professionals as well as politicians and Party cadres. Barring unforseen developments, this document will be adopted in more or less its present form later this year. The Constitution of the Communist Party of China (CPC) will also be revised, probably at the same time or a little later. Significantly, the State Constitution will probably set the tone for the Party Constitution to follow rather than the other way round. In this respect as in its fundamental conception, style, and contents, the 1982 Draft resembles the Constitution of 1954 and differs from those of 1975 and 1978. Perhaps this is why the new Draft has been described as “the Second Constitution”-to-be by Hu Sheng, a deputy secretary-general of the Committee for the Revision of the Constitution.
Lenin, Mao and Aidit
Authors: van der Kroef Justus M.
Published: March 2009

The international advance of Communism in our time is in no small measure due to the apparent flexibility with which Marxist and Leninist concepts have been applied—often with startling selectivity—to the problems of the newly emergent and underdeveloped countries of the world. While generally and carefully observing all strictures against “revisionism” and “subjectivism,” Communist leaders in these new nations dip with ease into the reservoir of the thought of Marx and Lenin and its practitioners for a justification of their particular tactics, pointing out that Communist thought itself invites flexibility and adaptability. Stalin could quote with approval Lenin's dictum that “We do not regard Marxist theory as something complete and inviolable; on the contrary, we are convinced that it has only laid the cornerstone of the science which Socialistsmustfurther advance in all directions if they wish to keep pace with life.”
The Founding of the Sino-Albanian Entente
Authors: Tretiak Daniel
Published: March 2009

During the past several years, changes have occurred within the Communist bloc which have led to important institutional and political developments. A prominent example of these changes has been the shift in economic and political ties which characterised Albania's relations with the Soviet Union. The Albanians have joined with the Chinese to form the first apparently successful fraction within the Communist world despite great geographic separation and strong Russian coercion. Notwithstanding harsh Russian political and economic pressure, the leaderships of China and of Albania have persisted in their rigidity. It remains to be seen what factors led to this unusual entente within an international movement which China and Albania have continuously maintained must be characterised by “steel-like unity.” For ironically, through their actions, they have definitely weakened that unity. It is the purpose herein to describe what issues and events in Soviet-Albanian relations caused Albania to turn to the CPR for major political and economic support, as well as to show how the accession of a small ally in Eastern Europe has proved to be of importance to the Chinese.
A Maoist Line for India
Authors: Gupta Bhabani Sen
Published: March 2009

For a key to the Chinese stance on India, one might begin by quoting the first message Mao Tse-tung sent to that country after taking over as Chairman of the People's Republic. Ironically, it went to B. T. Ranadive, who was then the anti-Maoist General Secretary of the Indian Communist Party (CPI), and who is now the doubtfully Maoist editor of the weekly journal of the supposedly pro-Chinese or Marxist Communists (CPI[M]). “The Indian people is one of the great Asian peoples with a long history and a vast population,” said Mao, in reply to a message of greetings from Ranadive; “her fate in the past and her path to the future are similar to those of China in many points.” When India became free, like China after liberation, Mao went on to add, “that day will end the imperialist reactionary era in the history of mankind.”
The Sino-Indonesian Rupture
Authors: Van Der Kroef Justus M.
Published: March 2009

On October 7, 1967, Indonesia's Foreign Minister, Adam Malik, told anti-communist student demonstrators in Jakarta that Indonesia was moving in the direction of a complete break in diplomatic relations with China. On October 9, after a special cabinet meeting, the Indonesian government announced that it was “suspending” relations with the Peking government, thus effecting a kind of de facto diplomatic break. On October 29, Peking followed suit ordering the “temporary closing” of its embassy in Jakarta. On October 31, a Chinese plane flew the eight remaining Indonesian diplomats in Peking home to Jakarta and picked up the 20 or so remaining Chinese diplomatic staff in the Indonesian capital. These developments climaxed a two-year period of declining Sino-Indonesian relations which began with the abortive communist coup of September 30, 1965. During this time, the erstwhile Sino-Indonesian partnership, once conceived by its creators as the nucleus of a world movement against “neo-colonialism, colonialism and imperialism” deteriorated into bitterness. Three factors in this rapid deterioration deserve particular attention:

Peking's alleged involvement in the September 30 coup (usually called Gestapu—from Gerakan tigah puluh September—by acronymminded Indonesians) and her reportedly subsequent subversive burrowing in Indonesia, the anti-communist momentum of Indonesian politics since the coup and its impact on the three million Chinese minority in Indonesia, and the pattern of steadily escalating tensions between the two countries following their respective diplomatic ploys and counterploys.
Problems of Village Leadership after Land Reform
Authors: Bernstein Thomas P.
Published: March 2009

Two threats arose in China after land reform that imperilled the transition from the anti-feudal, new democratic revolution of land reform to the socialist revolution of collectivisation. One threat came from “below,” from the village environment; the other from “above,” from the hierarchy of party and government. Both threats centred on the basic-level leadership and activists who had been recruited into political roles during the guerrilla years and especially during land reform. One threat arose as the interests of the peasants in the maintenance of the small-producer economy affected the attitudes and behaviour of village leaders, leading them to such responses as wanting to withdraw from political involvement. The other threat arose as the rural administrative system became increasingly burdened by numerous tasks and assignments. As pressure to produce results increased, rural leaders tended to become administrators and command mobilisers, orientated towards getting each job done quickly, using coercion. This approach caused a variety of problems; for example, it jeopardised a central goal of the socialist transformation of agriculture of securing peasant support and cooperation with this change.