bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Business Cycles and the Behavior of Metals Prices
Authors: FAMA EUGENE F. , FRENCH KENNETH R.
Published: April 2012

The theory of storage says that the marginal convenience yield on inventory falls at a decreasing rate as inventory increases. The authors test this hypothesis by examining the relative variation of spot and futures prices for metals. As the hypothesis implies, futures prices are less variable than spot prices when inventory is low, but spot and futures prices have similar variability when inventory is high. The theory of storage also explains inversions of “normal” futures‐spot price relations around business‐cycle peaks. Positive demand shocks around peaks reduce metal inventories and, as the theory predicts, generate large convenience yields and price inversions.
The Purchasing Power of Money and Nominal Interest Rates: A Re‐Examination
Authors: SHOME DILIP K. , SMITH STEPHEN D. , PINKERTON JOHN M.
Published: April 2012

While it has been known for some time that, under uncertainty, the original version of the Fisher hypothesis is not precisely correct, empirical researchers have largely ignored this fact. Such an omission has possibly resulted in erroneous conclusions concerning other hypotheses; most notably the impact of prices on the real economy. This paper clarifies some of the previous interpretations of the existing empirical literature and provides a theoretical version of the relation between prices and interest rates. Empirical tests based on both the Livingston survey data and data from time‐series forecasting models provide support for the Fisher effect and the hypothesis that only covariance risk is priced in the Treasury bill market.
Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends
Authors: CAMPBELL JOHN Y. , SHILLER ROBERT J.
Published: April 2012

Long historical averages of real earnings help forecast present values of future real dividends. With aggregate U.S. stock market data (1871–1986), a vector‐autoregressive forecast of the present value of future dividends is, for each year, roughly a weighted average of moving‐average earnings and current real price, with between two thirds and three fourths of the weight on the earnings measure. We develop the implications of this for the present‐value model of stock prices and for recent results that long‐horizon stock returns are highly forecastable.
Predicting Contemporary Volume with Historic Volume at Differential Price Levels: Evidence Supporting the Disposition Effect
Authors: FERRIS STEPHEN P. , HAUGEN ROBERT A. , MAKHIJA ANIL K.
Published: April 2012

This paper presents empirical evidence comparing two models of trading in equities—the well‐known tax‐loss‐selling hypothesis and “the disposition effect.” According to the disposition effect, investors are reluctant to realize losses but are eager to realize gains. This paper distinguishes between the two models with a new methodology that examines the relationship between volume at a given point in time and volume that took place in the past at different stock prices. The evidence overwhelmingly supports the disposition effect not only as a determinant of year‐end volume, but also as a determinant of volume levels throughout the year.
Joint Estimation of Factor Sensitivities and Risk Premia for the Arbitrage Pricing Theory
Authors: BURMEISTER EDWIN , McELROY MARJORIE B.
Published: April 2012

The APT is represented as a multivariate regression model with across‐equations restrictions. Both observed and unobserved (latent) macroeconomic factors are included, thus generalizing and unifying two previous strands of literature. Large portfolios representing unobserved factors are treated as endogenous, and nonlinear 3SLS estimates are shown to differ sharply from estimates that ignore this endogeneity. Using monthly stock returns and six factors, we cannot reject January effects. The following results are invariant with respect to the inclusion of January effects: we reject the CAPM in favor of the APT; however, we cannot reject the APT restrictions on the linear factor model.
Banking Panics, Information, and Rational Expectations Equilibrium
Authors: CHARI V. V. , JAGANNATHAN RAVI
Published: April 2012

This paper shows that bank runs can be modeled as an equilibrium phenomenon. We demonstrate that some aspects of the intuitive “story” that bank runs start with fears of insolvency of banks can be rigorously modeled. If individuals observe long “lines” at the bank, they correctly infer that there is a possibility that the bank is about to fail and precipitate a bank run. However, bank runs occur even when no one has any adverse information. Extra market constraints such as suspension of convertibility can prevent bank runs and result in superior allocations.
Dynamic Capital Structure Choice: Theory and Tests
Authors: FISCHER EDWIN O. , HEINKEL ROBERT , ZECHNER JOSEF
Published: April 2012

This paper develops a model of dynamic capital structure choice in the presence of recapitalization costs. The theory provides the optimal dynamic recapitalization policy as a function of firm‐specific characteristics. We find that even small recapitalization costs lead to wide swings in a firm's debt ratio over time. Rather than static leverage measures, we use the observed debt ratio range of a firm as an empirical measure of capital structure relevance. The results of empirical tests relating firms' debt ratio ranges to firm‐specific features strongly support the theoretical model of relevant capital structure choice in a dynamic setting.
The October 1987 S&P 500 Stock‐Futures Basis
Authors: HARRIS LAWRENCE
Published: April 2012

Five‐minute changes in the S&P 500 index and futures contract are examined over a ten‐day period surrounding the October 1987 stock market crash. Since nonsynchronous trading problems are severe in these data, new index estimators are derived and used. The estimators use the complete transaction history of all 500 stocks. Nonsynchronous trading explains part of the large absolute futures‐cash basis observed during the crash. The remainder may be due to disintegration of the two markets. Even after adjustment for nonsynchronous trading, the index displays more autocorrelation than does the futures and the futures leads the index.
Earnings Yields, Market Values, and Stock Returns
Authors: JAFFE JEFFREY , KEIM DONALD B. , WESTERFIELD RANDOLPH
Published: April 2012

Earlier evidence concerning the relation between stock returns and the effects of size and earnings to price ratio (E/P) is not clear‐cut. This paper re‐examines these two effects with (a) a substantially longer sample period, 1951–1986, (b) data that are reasonably free of survivor biases, (c) both portfolio and seemingly unrelated regression tests, and (d) an emphasis on the important differences between January and other months. Over the entire period, the earnings yield effect is significant in both January and the other eleven months. Conversely, the size effect is significantly negative only in January. We also find evidence of consistently high returns for firms of all sizes with negative earnings.
Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates
Authors: BAILLIE RICHARD T. , BOLLERSLEV TIM
Published: April 2012

Univariate tests reveal strong evidence for the presence of a unit root in the univariate time‐series representation for seven daily spot and forward exchange rate series. Furthermore, all seven spot and forward rates appear to be cointegrated; that is, the forward premiums are stationary, and one common unit root, or stochastic trend, is detectable in the multivariate time‐series models for the seven spot and forward rates, respectively. This is consistent with the hypothesis that the seven exchange rates possess one long‐run relationship and that the disequilibrium error around that relationship partly accounts for subsequent movements in the exchange rates.
Syndicate Size, Spreads, and Market Power during the Introduction of Shelf Registration
Authors: FOSTER F. DOUGLAS
Published: April 2012

The introduction of shelf registration in 1982 is used to examine the extent of price‐taking behavior among investment banks. Changes in underwriting syndicates are compared with the concomitant adjustment in underwriting spreads and management fees. The evidence is consistent with higher organizing costs and/or market power in the underwriting syndicate. Evidence on the components of the spreads and syndicate composition during the introduction of shelf registration is also presented.
Nonnormalities and Tests of Asset Pricing Theories
Authors: AFFLECK‐GRAVES JOHN , MCDONALD BILL
Published: April 2012

The robustness of the multivariate test of Gibbons, Ross, and Shanken (1986) to nonnormalities in the residual covariance matrix is examined. After considering the relative performance of various tests of normality, simulation techniques are used to determine the effects of nonnormalities on the multivariate test. It is found that, where the sample nonnormalities are severe, the size and/or power of the test can be seriously misstated. However, it is also shown that these extreme sample values may overestimate the population parameters. Hence, we conclude that the multivariate test is reasonably robust with respect to typical levels of nonnormality.
Measuring Corporate Bond Mortality and Performance
Authors: ALTMAN EDWARD I.
Published: April 2012

This study develops an alternative way to measure default risk and suggests an appropriate method to assess the performance of fixed‐income investors over the entire spectrum of credit‐quality classes. The approach seeks to measure the expected mortality of bonds and the consequent loss rates in a manner similar to the way actuaries assess mortality of human beings. The results show that all bond ratings outperform riskless Treasuries over a ten‐year horizon and that, despite relatively high mortality rates, B‐rated and CCC‐rated securities outperform all other rating categories for the first four years after issuance, with BB‐rated securities outperforming all others thereafter.
Corporate Bankruptcy and Managers' Self‐Serving Behavior
Authors: LODERER CLAUDIO F. , SHEEHAN DENNIS P.
Published: April 2012

We investigate whether insiders of bankrupt firms hold less stock or reduce their stockholdings compared to what we observed for insiders of similar firms that do not go bankrupt. We find little evidence of such time‐series and cross‐sectional differences in spite of the fact that the stock value of bankrupt firms falls by more than ninety percent in the five years preceding bankruptcy. One implication of our results is that the amount of stock owned and the magnitude of the trades undertaken by corporate insiders of both bankrupt and nonbankrupt firms appear to provide no information about firm value.
Initial Public Offering Underpricing: The Issuer's View—A Comment
Authors: BARRY CHRISTOPHER B.
Published: April 2012

I consider the underpricing of initial public offerings (IPOs) and the wealth transfers implicit in that underpricing. I find that initial returns properly measure the “issue cost” effect of underpricing as a fraction of offer size, as in Ritter (1987). I present a measure of the wealth effect of underpricing per share retained. In general, the wealth effects on existing shareholders depend on the extent to which they participate in the offering. From the perspective of issuer's wealth, I find that Dawson's (1987) measure is appropriate only in the special case in which all of the prior owners'; shares are sold in the IPO.
Changes in Expected Security Returns, Risk, and the Level of Interest Rates
Authors: FERSON WAYNE E.
Published: April 2012

Regressions of security returns on treasury bill rates provide insight about the behavior of risk in rational asset pricing models. The information in one‐month bill rates implies time variation in the conditional covariances of portfolios of stocks and fixed‐income securities with benchmark pricing variables, over extended samples and within five‐year subperiods. There is evidence of changes in conditional “betas” associated with interest rates. Consumption and stock market data are examined as proxies for marginal utility, in a general framework for asset pricing with time‐varying conditional covariances.
Pricing Contingent Claims under Interest Rate and Asset Price Risk
Authors: KISHIMOTO NAOKI
Published: April 2012

This paper presents a general framework for pricing contingent claims under interest rate and asset price uncertainty. The framework extends Ho and Lee's (1986) valuation framework by allowing not only future interest rates but also future asset prices to depend on the current term structure of interest rates. The approach is shown to provide risk‐neutral valuation relationships that are consistent with the initial term structure of interest rates and can be applied to valuation of a broad class of assets including stock options, convertible bonds, and junk bonds.
Arbitrage‐Based Estimation of Nonstationary Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Authors: BLISS ROBERT R. , RONN EHUD I.
Published: April 2012

The purpose of this paper is to provide a test of a state‐dependent multinomial model of intertemporal changes in the term structure of interest rates. The theoretical background for the model comes from Ho and Lee (1986). The current paper extends their model in several significant ways. First, we perform diagnostic tests on the data to demonstrate that the empirical results reject a binomial model in favor of a trinomial one. After theoretically deriving the appropriate trinomial model, the current paper extends their model to allow for state‐dependent shifts which are determined by the set of ex ante observable state variables. The methodology for the study utilizes OLS regressions to identify the exogenous explanatory variables which drive the hypothesized trinomial process of term structure evolution. The empirical tests indicate that the set of state variables explains a significant portion of the variability in the shifts of the term structure over time. The model also identifies and quantifies a set of variables which impact on changes in the term structure of interest rates.
Management Buyouts: Evidence on Taxes as a Source of Value
Authors: KAPLAN STEVEN
Published: April 2012

This paper estimates the value of tax benefits in 76 management buyouts of public companies completed in the period 1980 to 1986. The median value of tax benefits, estimated at the time the buyout company goes private, has a lower bound of 21% and an upper bound of 143% of the premium paid to pre‐buyout shareholders. The estimated value depends on the rate buyout debt is repaid and the tax rate applied to the interest deductions. The paper also presents evidence on the actual taxes paid and debt repayment rates by these companies after the buyout. The results in this paper suggest that tax benefits are an important source of the wealth gains in management buyouts.
Firm Value and the Choice of Offering Method in Initial Public Offerings
Authors: BOWER NANCY L.
Published: April 2012

A firm raising capital in an initial public offering faces the problems of choosing between a firm‐commitment and a best‐efforts offering and of how to convey information about its value to potential investors. The offering method chosen affects both the firm's cost of obtaining capital and investors' perceptions about firm value. A partially pooling, partially separating equilibrium is found where high‐valued firms have information about their values revealed in a firm‐commitment offering, while low‐valued firms use best‐efforts offerings and are unable to distinguish themselves from other firms.
Information Losses in a Dynamic Model of Credit
Authors: LANG WILLIAM W. , NAKAMURA LEONARD I.
Published: April 2012

This paper examines dynamic information losses associated with loan terminations. We assume that the aggregated returns of current borrowers contain information about the mean returns to future borrowers. In a competitive loan market, the value of this information is not fully internalized by individual borrowers and lenders, and loan decisions fail to be first best. Introducing heterogeneous borrowers, who know their own risk characteristics better than lenders, safer borrowers are less willing to borrow when risk premia rise. As they cease borrowing, the information generated in credit markets becomes noisier and this tends to increase risk premia. The model produces alternating and persistent periods of “tight” and “loose” credit.
The Arbitrage Pricing Theory and Supershares
Authors: LATHAM MARK
Published: April 2012

In a single‐period model with options on the market portfolio, linear factor pricing holds if and only if the variance of the market conditional on the factors is zero. There is no need for factors other than nonlinear functions of the market. For accurate linear pricing of all payoff patterns the factors must be rotationally equivalent to Hakansson's “supershares.” In a multiperiod model, a similar set of results holds, but with consumption replacing the market payoff. The methodology of the empirical Arbitrage Pricing Theory literature is not consistent with either the single‐period model or the multiperiod model.
The Time Variation of Risk and Return in the Foreign Exchange and Stock Markets
Authors: GIOVANNINI ALBERTO , JORION PHILIPPE
Published: April 2012

This paper attempts to determine whether the fluctuations of conditional first and second moments—which are observed for many assets—are consistent with the Sharpe‐Lintner‐Mossin capital asset pricing model. We test the mean‐variance model under several different assumptions about the time variation of conditional second moments of returns, using weekly data from July 1974 to December 1986, that include returns on a portfolio composed of dollar, Deutsche mark, sterling, and Swiss franc assets, together with the U.S. stock market. The results indicate that estimated conditional variances cannot explain the observed time variation of risk premia.
Tax‐Induced Trading: The Effect of the 1986 Tax Reform Act on Stock Market Activity
Authors: BOLSTER PAUL J. , LINDSEY LAWRENCE B. , MITRUSI ANDREW
Published: April 2012

The end of favorable tax treatment for long‐term capital gains caused investors to reassess traditional tax‐induced trading strategies. This study compares trading behavior in December 1986 and January 1987 with previous years. Our results indicate that these tax code changes had a powerful effect on trading behavior. Relative trading volume was considerably higher in December 1986 for long‐term winners but not significantly lower for long‐term losers. Results also indicate altered trading patterns based on short‐term gains in December 1986 and for long‐term winners in January 1987.
Institutional Ownership and Changes in the S&P 500
Authors: PRUITT STEPHEN W. , WEI K. C. JOHN
Published: April 2012

Several recent articles have provided new evidence for the existence of price pressures by examining the price and volume effects associated with changes in the S&P 500. The present study extends this work by examining actual changes in institutional holdings following both additions to and deletions from the S&P 500. The results show that changes in institutional holdings in response to additions or deletions from the S&P 500 are positively correlated. In addition to providing further evidence for the existence of price pressure effects, the results also provide evidence of the very large institutional elasticities of demand for stock.
The Expected Utility of the Doubling Strategy
Authors: OMBERG EDWARD
Published: April 2012

It has been noted that a certain continuous‐time trading strategy, termed the “doubling strategy”, generates a positive net return on borrowed funds, with probability one and within a finite period of time. Since the doubling strategy seems to represent a “free lunch” or arbitrage opportunity, a variety of constraints to render it infeasible have been proposed. In this paper, we show that the doubling strategy generates infinite disutility for a large class of utility functions, and we can think of no utility function for a risk‐averse agent which is a counterexample.
Comment on Forward Markets, Stock Markets, and the Theory of the Firm
Authors: MAKSIMOVIC VOJISLAV , SICK GORDON , ZECHNER JOSEF
Published: April 2012

In a recent article, MacMinn [5] argues that the presence of forward markets eliminates the incentives of the firm's manager to choose production levels that maximize firm value. In this comment, we show that his results do not depend on the presence of forward markets. The critical assumptions are that the manager is endowed with money rather than stock in the firm and that there is no competitive labor market for managers. In addition, his results require time‐inconsistent behavior on the part of the firm's manager.
Shareholder Preferences and Dividend Policy
Authors: BRENNAN MICHAEL J. , THAKOR ANJAN V.
Published: April 2012

This paper develops a theory of choice among alternative procedures for distributing cash from corporations to shareholders. Despite the preferential tax treatment of capital gains for individual investors, it is shown that a majority of a firm's shareholders may support a dividend payment for small distributions. For larger distributions an open market stock repurchase is likely to be preferred by a majority of shareholders, and for the largest distributions tender offer repurchases dominate.
Equity Issues and Stock Price Dynamics
Authors: LUCAS DEBORAH J. , McDONALD ROBERT L.
Published: April 2012

This paper presents an information‐theoretic, infinite horizon model of the equity issue decision. The model predicts that (a) equity issues on average are preceded by an abnormal positive return on the stock, although for some firms the issue is preceded by a loss; (b) equity issues on average are preceded by an abnormal rise in the market; and (c) the stock price drops at the announcement of an issue. The model provides a measure of the welfare cost of asymmetric information; the welfare loss may be small even if the price drop at issue announcement is large.
Asymmetric Information, Bank Lending, and Implicit Contracts: A Stylized Model of Customer Relationships
Authors: SHARPE STEVEN A.
Published: April 2012

Customer relationships arise between banks and firms because, in the process of lending, a bank learns more than others about its own customers. This information asymmetry allows lenders to capture some of the rents generated by their older customers; competition thus drives banks to lend to new firms at interest rates which initially generate expected losses. As a result, the allocation of capital is shifted toward lower quality and inexperienced firms. This inefficiency is eliminated if complete contingent contracts are written or, when this is costly, if banks can make nonbinding commitments that, in equilibrium, are backed by reputation.
Liquidity of the CBOE Equity Options
Authors: VIJH ANAND M.
Published: April 2012

We examine the CBOE option market depth and bid‐ask spreads. Absence of price effects surrounding large option trades suggests excellent market depth. However, bid‐ask spreads for the CBOE options and the NYSE stocks are nearly equal, even though an average option is equivalent to less than half a stock plus borrowing. We explain this tradeoff between market depth and bid‐ask spreads on the CBOE and the NYSE by differences in market mechanisms. We also show that the adverse‐selection component of the option spread, which measures the extent of information‐related trading on the CBOE, is very small.
Stock Returns and Real Activity: A Century of Evidence
Authors: SCHWERT G. WILLIAM
Published: April 2012

This paper analyzes the relation between real stock returns and real activity from 1889–1988. It replicates Fama's (1990) results for the 1953–1987 period using an additional 65 years of data. It also compares two measures of industrial production in the tests: (1) the series produced by Babson for 1889–1918, spliced with the Federal Reserve Board index of industrial production for 1919–1988, and (2) the new Miron and Romer (1989) index spliced with the Federal Reserve Board index in 1941. Fama's findings are robust for a much longer period—future production growth rates explain a large fraction of the variation in stock returns. The new Miron‐Romer measure of industrial production is less closely related to stock price movements than the older Babson and Federal Reserve Board measures.
Forward and Futures Prices: Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Markets
Authors: CHANG CAROLYN W. , CHANG JACK S. K.
Published: April 2012

Cornell and Reinganum (1981), hereafter CR, report that price differentials for future contracts and forward contracts are statistically insignificant in foreign exchange markets. Based on this finding, CR conclude that marking‐to‐market is insignificant in the formulation of currency futures prices. This note identifies two potential concerns with the CR tests. One problem relates to the timing of delivery dates for “matched” contracts. A second problem relates to the time period for the CR study. We show that correcting for these problems does not affect the overall conclusions of the CR study; marking‐to‐market does not appear to have a significant effect on currency futures prices.
Corporate Financial Policy and the Theory of Financial Intermediation
Authors: SEWARD JAMES K.
Published: April 2012

This paper examines the optimal structure of financial contracts in an economy subject to two forms of moral hazard. Multiple information problems are shown to generate a role for multiple classes of financial claimants. We then show that economic efficiency is enhanced if the financial structure of the economy consists of both direct and intermediated financial contract markets. Consequently, our results demonstrate a motivation for the complementarity between capital markets and depository financial institutions.
Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation
Authors: DE LONG J. BRADFORD , SHLEIFER ANDREI , SUMMERS LAWRENCE H. , WALDMANN ROBERT J.
Published: April 2012

Analyses of rational speculation usually presume that it dampens fluctuations caused by “noise” traders. This is not necessarily the case if noise traders follow positive‐feedback strategies—buy when prices rise and sell when prices fall. It may pay to jump on the bandwagon and purchase ahead of noise demand. If rational speculators' early buying triggers positive‐feedback trading, then an increase in the number of forward‐looking speculators can increase volatility about fundamentals. This model is consistent with a number of empirical observations about the correlation of asset returns, the overreaction of prices to news, price bubbles, and expectations.
Anomalous Price Behavior Around Repurchase Tender Offers
Authors: LAKONISHOK JOSEF , VERMAELEN THEO
Published: April 2012

This paper reports anomalous price behavior around repurchase tender offers. Buying shares before the expiration date of a repurchase tender offer and tendering to the firm produces, on average, abnormal returns of more than 9 percent over a period shorter than one week. In addition, we find that repurchasing companies experience economically and statistically significant abnormal returns in the two years after the repurchase. The upward price drift is mainly caused by the behavior of the small firms in the sample.
The Structure of Spot Rates and Immunization
Authors: ELTON EDWIN J. , GRUBER MARTIN J. , MICHAELY RONI
Published: April 2012

Empirical studies of the modern theories of bond pricing typically choose proxies for the state variables in a rather arbitrary fashion. This paper empirically analyzes the question of the optimal spot rates to use as state variables. Our findings indicate that the four‐year spot rate serves as the best proxy in the one‐state‐variable model. In the case of the two‐state‐variables model, the six‐year rate and eight‐month rate are identified as best. Tests of the out‐of‐sample prediction ability indicate that our model is superior to Macaulay's duration model and alternative proxies for state variables.
Ownership Structure, Deregulation, and Bank Risk Taking
Authors: SAUNDERS ANTHONY , STROCK ELIZABETH , TRAVLOS NICKOLAOS G.
Published: April 2012

This paper investigates the relationship between bank ownership structure and risk taking. It is hypothesized that stockholder controlled banks have incentives to take higher risk than managerially controlled banks and that these differences in risk become more pronounced in periods of deregulation. In support of this hypothesis, we show that stockholder controlled banks exhibit significantly higher risk taking behavior than managerially controlled banks during the 1979–1982 period of relative deregulation.
International Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and the Stochastic Structure of Supply
Authors: BOYLE GLENN W.
Published: April 2012

In a dual‐currency, flexible exchange rate model, both nominal and real foreign exchange premia depend on investor risk attitudes, consumption parameters, and the stochastic structure of currency and commodity supplies. When supplies are random, their joint correlation structure determines the sign of the premia. If the money supplies are identically distributed, then all foreign exchange premia, regardless of the currency of denomination, are zero. A positive correlation between the value of a country's currency and its nominal interest rate need not indicate real interest rate movements. Relative bond prices can be negatively correlated with the terms of trade.
Defensive Changes in Corporate Payout Policy: Share Repurchases and Special Dividends
Authors: DENIS DAVID J.
Published: April 2012

This paper examines defensive payouts announced in response to hostile corporate control activity. The evidence indicates that the announcement of defensive share repurchases is associated with an average negative impact on the share price of the target firm. In contrast, special dividend payments generally increase the wealth of target firm shareholders. Regardless of payout type, those firms remaining independent after the outcome of the corporate control contest experience an abnormal share price increase over the duration of the contest. Among these firms there are substantial post‐contest changes in capital, asset, and ownership structure and abnormally high rates of top management turnover.
High Stock Returns before Holidays: Existence and Evidence on Possible Causes
Authors: ARIEL ROBERT A.
Published: April 2012

On the trading day prior to holidays, stocks advance with disproportionate frequency and show high mean returns averaging nine to fourteen times the mean return for the remaining days of the year. Over one third of the total return accruing to the market portfolio over the 1963–1982 period was earned on the eight trading days which each year fall before holiday market closings. Examination of hourly pre‐holiday stock returns reveals high returns throughout the day. Pre‐holiday stock returns in the post‐test 1983–1986 period are also examined.
Performance Measurement under Asymmetric Information and Investment Constraints
Authors: GENDRON MICHEL , GENEST CHRISTIAN
Published: April 2012

The fact that investment policies are often restricted appears to have been neglected in the performance measurement literature. This paper, using a standard information model, shows how the introduction of constraints on the proportion of assets to be invested in the market affects the expected portfolio returns and the value of a portfolio manager's performance. The results are related to the classical Treynor and Mazuy (1966) conjectures about characteristic lines.
The Relative Termination Experience of Adjustable to Fixed‐Rate Mortgages
Authors: CUNNINGHAM DONALD F. , CAPONE CHARLES A.
Published: April 2012

Our study uses a multinomial logit model to analyze the concurrent termination experience of adjustable‐rate and fixed‐rate mortgages. A new set of ARM‐specific interactive determinants expands the conventional FRM specification to isolate the unique termination behavior of ARMs. We find that expected rate adjustments and large lifetime caps are positively related to ARM termination probabilities while long adjustment frequencies are inversely related. Caps, both periodic and lifetime, have a secondary, inverse effect on termination probabilities when interest‐rate movements exceed cap limits. The model also shows that interest‐rate expectations affect FRM terminations more strongly than ARM terminations.
Modeling Structural and Temporal Variation in the Market's Valuation of Banking Firms
Authors: KANE EDWARD J. , UNAL HALUK
Published: April 2012

Hidden capital exists whenever the accounting measure of a firm's net worth diverges from its economic value. Such unbooked capital has on‐balance‐sheet and off‐balance‐sheet sources. This paper develops a model to estimate both forms of hidden capital and to test hypotheses about their determinants. In effect, the analysis expands the two‐index model by endogenizing the market and interest‐rate sensitivities of any stock and decomposing each sensitivity into on‐balance‐sheet and off‐balance‐sheet elements. For a sample of banks during 1975–1985, the model finds considerable variation in both forms of hidden capital.
The Shelf Registration of Debt and Self Selection Bias
Authors: ALLEN DAVID S. , LAMY ROBERT E. , THOMPSON G. RODNEY
Published: April 2012

Prior studies report lower issue costs for shelf registered debt and conclude that the benefits of increased underwriter competition can be realized by those firms using this registration procedure. This study re‐examines the purported superiority of issuing debt via shelf registration, and finds that the savings in issue costs displayed by earlier studies can be attributed to a self selection bias and not the method of registration.
Determinants of Thrift Institution Resolution Costs
Authors: BARTH JAMES R. , BARTHOLOMEW PHILIP F. , BRADLEY MICHAEL G.
Published: April 2012

This paper provides a detailed examination of the cost imposed by thrift institutions resolved during the period 1980–1988. A simple model is presented to explain the cost of resolution. This model is tested empirically with a comprehensive data set that permits us to avoid some of the econometric problems present in earlier studies. The empirical evidence suggests that the model that explains resolution costs in the late 1980s is significantly different from the model for either the middle or early 1980s. This evidence is consistent with the changing nature of the thrift crisis and changes in the regulator's closure rule. Our econometric evidence, moreover, is consistent with the hypothesis that, for troubled institutions, tangible net worth systematically understates market‐value net worth. In addition, the importance of including time effects as well as institution effects as determinants of the cost of resolution is revealed.
The Distribution of Target Ownership and the Division of Gains in Successful Takeovers
Authors: STULZ RENÉ M. , WALKLING RALPH A. , SONG MOON H.
Published: April 2012

This paper presents evidence that the distribution of target ownership is related to the division of the takeover gain between the target and the bidder for a sample of successful tender offers. In the whole sample, the target's gain is negatively related to bidder and institutional ownership. In the sample of multiple‐bidder contests, the target's gain increases with managerial ownership and falls with institutional ownership.
Equilibrium Exchange Rate Hedging
Authors: BLACK FISCHER
Published: April 2012

We assume a world like the one that gives the capital asset pricing model, but with many goods and many countries. We assume that investors in a given country have homothetic utility functions with the same weights, and a currency that has a sure end‐of‐period value using a price index with those weights. Siegel's paradox (derived from Jensen's inequality) makes investors want a positive amount of exchange risk. When average risk tolerance is the same across countries, every investor will hold the same mix of market risk (through the world market portfolio of all assets) and exchange risk (in a diversified basket of foreign currencies). In fact, the ratio of exchange risk to market risk is equal to the average investor's risk tolerance. We can write the ratio of exchange risk to market risk (and the fraction of the market's exchange risk that investors hedge) as depending on an average of world market risk premia, an average of world market volatilities, and an average of exchange rate volatilities. The weights in these averages are the same as the weights of the different countries in the currency basket. Given these averages, the ratio (and the fraction hedged) will not depend directly on exchange rate means or covariances. In equilibrium, we can use the ratio of exchange risk to market risk to measure average risk tolerance: in this model, risk tolerance is observable.
Default Risk in Futures Markets: The Customer‐Broker Relationship
Authors: JORDAN JAMES V. , MORGAN GEORGE EMIR
Published: April 2012

The traditional view of the futures clearinghouse as an insurer that eliminates the need for customers to evaluate default risk is inaccurate. A clearinghouse member default in 1985 confirms that the clearinghouse only guarantees payment from member to member, not from customer to customer or member to customer. Thus, non‐defaulting customers are subject to losses as a result of the action of individuals with whom thay have no contractual obligations. This study models the behavior of customers choosing a futures commission merchant (FCM) given the current legal position of the clearinghouse. In a single‐period model with symmetric information, customers can eliminate their exposure to defaults of other customers or of their FCM only by choosing to trade through “boutique” (undiversified) FCMs. In practice, monitoring and rebalancing costs may impede the attainment of zero default risk. However, FCM diversification remains an important factor in customer choice of an FCM. When setting capital requirements, clearinghouses and government regulators need to consider the implications of diversification for both customer and market protection.
Stochastic Convenience Yield and the Pricing of Oil Contingent Claims
Authors: GIBSON RAJNA , SCHWARTZ EDUARDO S.
Published: April 2012

This paper develops and empirically tests a two‐factor model for pricing financial and real assets contingent on the price of oil. The factors are the spot price of oil and the instantaneous convenience yield. The parameters of the model are estimated using weekly oil futures contract prices from January 1984 to November 1988, and the model's performance is assessed out of sample by valuing futures contracts over the period November 1988 to May 1989. Finally, the model is applied to determine the present values of one barrel of oil deliverable in one to ten years time.
Leverage
Authors: MILLER MERTON H.
Published: April 2012

Nobel Memorial Prize Lecture for presentation at the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences in Stockholm, December 7, 1990. Helpful comments on an earlier draft were made by my colleagues Steven Kaplan and Robert Vishny.
Evidence on Tax‐Motivated Securities Trading Behavior
Authors: BADRINATH S. G. , LEWELLEN WILBUR G.
Published: April 2012

Tax‐loss selling by investors in common stocks near the end of calendar years has been proposed as an explanation for the turn‐of‐the‐year effect in stock returns. Past analyses of this hypothesis have relied on inferential data. We provide here some direct data from a compilation of over 80,000 actual common stock investment round trips by a sample of 3000 individual investors. We find strong evidence of a concentration of loss‐taking trades late in the year and milder evidence of a concentration just prior to the dates when investments become eligible for long‐term tax treatment.
Tobin's Q and the Gains from Takeovers
Authors: SERVAES HENRI
Published: April 2012

This paper analyzes the relation between takeover gains and the q ratios of targets and bidders for a sample of 704 mergers and tender offers over the period 1972–1987. Target, bidder, and total returns are larger when targets have low q ratios and bidders have high q ratios. The relation is strengthened after controlling for the characteristics of the offer and the contest. This evidence confirms the results of the work by Lang, Stulz, and Walkling and shows that their findings also hold for mergers and after controlling for other determinants of takeover gains.
Ex‐Dividend Day Stock Price Behavior: The Case of the 1986 Tax Reform Act*
Authors: MICHAELY RONI
Published: April 2012

This paper analyzes the behavior of stock prices around ex‐dividend days after the implementation of the 1986 Tax Reform Act that dramatically reduced the difference between the tax treatment of realized long‐term capital gains and dividend income in 1987 and completely eliminated the differential in 1988. We show that this tax change had no effect on the ex‐dividend stock price behavior, which is consistent with the hypothesis that long‐term individual investors have no significant effect on ex‐day stock prices during this time period. The results indicate that the activity of short‐term traders and corporate traders dominates the price determination on the ex‐day.
Order Form and Information in Securities Markets
Authors: EASLEY DAVID , O'HARA MAUREEN
Published: April 2012

This paper examines the effects of price‐contingent orders on security prices. We show that a market maker who knows the type and composition of trades will set larger spreads and adjust prices faster than if price‐contingent orders were not allowed. Because traders have rational expectations over the book, we demonstrate that uncertainty over order type reduces the variance of prices but with a corresponding loss in price informativeness. We also show that the sequence property of price‐contingent orders increases the probability of large price movements. This distinction between variance and episodic price volatility has important policy implications.
Convertible Debt: Corporate Call Policy and Voluntary Conversion
Authors: ASQUITH PAUL , MULLINS DAVID W.
Published: April 2012

This paper examines why, in contrast to the predictions of finance theory, firms do not call convertible debt when the conversion price exceeds the call price. The empirical results suggest that the principal reason is because some firms enjoy an advantage of paying less in after‐tax interest than they would pay in dividends were the bond converted. This cash flow incentive is the inverse of an investor's incentive to convert voluntarily if the converted dividends are greater than the bond's coupon. Because of taxation, however, the decisions by investors and firms are not symmetric, and there exist bonds which the firm may not call and an investor will not convert. The results also find that voluntary conversion is significantly related to both the conversion price and the differential between the coupon and the dividends on the converted stock.
Stock Markets, Growth, and Tax Policy
Authors: LEVINE ROSS
Published: April 2012

An extensive literature documents the role of financial markets in economic development. To help explain this relationship, this paper constructs an endogenous growth model in which a stock market emerges to allocate risk and explores how the stock market alters investment incentives in ways that change steady state growth rates. The paper demonstrates that stock markets accelerate growth by (1) facilitating the ability to trade ownership of firms without disrupting the productive processes occurring within firms and (2) allowing agents to diversify portfolios. Tax policy affects growth directly by altering investment incentives and indirectly by changing the incentives underlying financial contracts.
Testing the CAPM with Time‐Varying Risks and Returns
Authors: BODURTHA JAMES N. , MARK NELSON C.
Published: April 2012

This paper draws on Engle's autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic modeling strategy to formulate a conditional CAPM with time‐varying risk and expected returns. The model is estimated by generalized method of moments. A CAPM that allows mean excess returns to shift in January survives generalized method of moments specification tests for a number of omitted variables. However, a residual dividend yield component is found to remain in the excess returns of smaller firms. We find significant monthly and quarterly components in the risk premia and beta estimates.
On the Good News in Equity Carve‐Outs
Authors: NANDA VIKRAM
Published: April 2012

The announcement of the sale of equity in a wholly owned subsidiary of a corporation is received by the market as good news about the value of the existing equity in the parent corporation. This is in stark contrast to announcements of other forms of public equity financing. We show that the apparent inconsistency between the market response to equity carve‐out announcements and other forms of equity financing can be easily understood in the Myers and Majluf (1984) framework. It is shown that firms that resort to an equity carve‐out will be firms that, on average, are being undervalued by the market.
Path Dependent Options: The Case of Lookback Options
Authors: CONZE ANTOINE , VISWANATHAN
Published: April 2012

Lookback options are path dependent contingent claims whose payoffs depend on the extrema of a given security's price over a certain period of time. Using probabilistic tools, we derive explicit formulas for various European lookback options, and provide some results about their American counterparts.
Predictable Stock Returns in the United States and Japan: A Study of Long‐Term Capital Market Integration
Authors: CAMPBELL JOHN Y. , HAMAO YASUSHI
Published: April 2012

This paper uses the predictability of monthly excess returns on U.S. and Japanese equity portfolios over the U.S. Treasury bill rate to study the integration of long‐term capital markets in these two countries. During the period 1971–1990 similar variables, including the dividend‐price ratio and interest rate variables, help to forecast excess returns in each country. In addition, in the 1980's U.S. variables help to forecast excess Japanese stock returns. There is some evidence of common movement in expected excess returns across the two countries, which is suggestive of integration of long‐term capital markets.
LBOs, Reversions and Implicit Contracts
Authors: IPPOLITO RICHARD A. , JAMES WILLIAM H.
Published: April 2012

The conventional view of going‐private transactions is that they are designed to enhance the efficiency of the firm (for example, Jensen (1986)). A starkly different view is that these and other control transactions are motivated to effect transfers from other stakeholders in the firm to equity holders (Shleifer and Summers (1988)). This study exploits data describing pension terminations as a way to test these theories. We conclude that the efficiency theory can plausibly explain a substantial number of LBO‐related terminations, but not enough to undermine the transfer theory. More specific predictions from the efflciency theory are needed to structure more exacting tests.
Corporate Dividends and Seasoned Equity Issues: An Empirical Investigation
Authors: LODERER CLAUDIO F. , MAUER DAVID C.
Published: April 2012

This paper investigates whether managers rely on dividends to obtain a higher price in a stock offering and whether the stock price reaction to dividend and offering announcements justifies such a coordination. The evidence does not support either conjecture. Issuing firms are not more likely to pay or increase dividends than nonissuing forms. Moreover, there is little evidence that firms time stock offering announcements right after dividend declarations to benefit from the attendant information disclosure. The analysis of dividend and stock offering announcement effects suggests few if any benefits from linking dividend and stock offering announcements.