Abstract PO-086: Covid-19 in the city of Teofilo Otoni-Minas Gerais: Current panorama and future perspectives
Authors: Coelho Laryssa Reis , da Mata Oliveira Rezende Gustavo , de Aguiar Virgílio Barroso , Oliveira e Almeida Pinto Vânia Soares , Genaro Rafael , Almeida Rafael Alvarenga , de Souza Fábio Silva , de Souza Alves Caio César , de Oliveira Pinheiro Leonel , de Siqueira Santos Fernanda Arueira , de Assis Dutra Alexandre Augusto , Araújo e Silva Ana Cândida , Macedo Rogério Fernandes 
Published: December 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic presents itself as one of the greatest health challenges on a global scale. Brazil has the highest number of cases and deaths in Latin America, given these underestimates. Teófilo Otoni is the pole municipality of the northeast macroregion of Minas Gerais (MG) and its health network is a reference for 448,438 inhabitants. The study aims to assess the current panorama of Covid-19 in the city of Teófilo Otoni, its future perspective, and the impacts on mortality. For the preparation of this study, data were collected on Covid-19 in Teófilo Otoni according to official bulletins issued daily by the Health Department of the State of Minas Gerais. A descriptive analysis of the data was carried out via a map with spatialization of the cases, and, for the numerical simulation of the evolution of the cases, the epidemiologic mathematical model S.I.R (Susceptible, Infected and Recovered) was used, combining the Code Blocks software combined with Matlab. The northeastern macroregion has high levels of illiteracy, many rural residents, and the presence of indigenous communities in situations of social vulnerability. Thus, in this region are found about 54% of the municipalities classified among the 100 worst Municipal Human Development Indexes in MG. Although a reference, Teófilo Otoni, until April 12, had only 7 beds of intensive care units (ICU) for Covid-19.The first confirmed case of the disease in the city occurred on April 22 and the municipality followed the recommendations of the Ministry of Health, launched on April 6, to adopt the Selective Social Distancing, since there were not more than 50% of the ICU beds occupied, thus helping the Expanded Social Distancing that was being carried out. However, the cases increased, and on May 22 the city decreed the closure of nonessential trade, intensifying the distance measures. Until June 8, Teófilo Otoni had 372 confirmed cases and 10 deaths from Covid-19, which is worthy of the simulations of the research project “Covid-19/UFVJM Bulletin,” since 298 and 535 infected were expected in the first week of this month, considering the contact rate close to reality (70%). However, by another analysis, the numbers are high, since the expectation for the first week of June, with horizontal isolation, was between 5 and 6 cases. In addition, it is imperative to highlight that deaths in the region tend to increase, since, on June 7, the two main hospitals in the city had 100% of their beds occupied. It appears that Teófilo Otoni is in a situation of public calamity, since the health network is not prepared to receive all patients referred with Covid-19 and who require ICU, which corresponds to about 3% (13,453) of cases. This reinforces the need to analyze epidemiologic data, expand the region's hospital network, and improve mitigation measures, as the forecasts can supplement public policies to contain the progress of the disease.

Citation Format: Laryssa Reis Coelho, Gustavo da Mata Oliveira Rezende, Virgílio Barroso de Aguiar, Vânia Soares Oliveira e Almeida Pinto, Rafael Genaro, Rafael Alvarenga Almeida, Fábio Silva de Souza, Caio César de Souza Alves, Leonel de Oliveira Pinheiro, Fernanda Arueira de Siqueira Santos, Alexandre Augusto de Assis Dutra, Ana Cândida Araújo e Silva, Rogério Fernandes Macedo. Covid-19 in the city of Teofilo Otoni-Minas Gerais: Current panorama and future perspectives [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the AACR Virtual Meeting: COVID-19 and Cancer; 2020 Jul 20-22. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Clin Cancer Res 2020;26(18_Suppl):Abstract nr PO-086.