Abstract P1-06-07: Mayo clinic TNBC outcome calculator: A clinical calculator to predict disease relapse and survival in women with triple-negative breast cancer
Authors: Polley M-YC , Leon-Ferre RA , Liu H , Gilbert J , Cafourek V , Hillman DW , Negron V , Boughey JC , Liu MC , Ingle JN , Kalari K , Couch F , Visscher DW , Goetz MP 
Published: February 2018

Purpose: Triple negative breast cancer (TNBC) is an aggressive breast cancer subtype with substantial risks of disease recurrence. While cytotoxic chemotherapy is commonly administered and reduces recurrence, disease outcomes vary considerably and few prognostic tools are available for risk stratification for TNBC patients. We constructed and validated clinical calculators for invasive-disease free survival (IDFS) and overall survival (OS) for TNBC and compared their performance against AJCC-based models which include only tumor size and nodal status.

Methods: From a surgical cohort of 9,982 patients who underwent breast cancer surgery at Mayo Clinic between January 1985 and December 2012, 605 centrally reviewed TNBC patients were identified and used to construct Cox models for IDFS and OS. Patients treated with neoadjuvant chemotherapy were excluded. Variables considered included age, menopausal status, tumor size, nodal status, Nottingham grade, type of breast surgery (mastectomy vs. lumpectomy), adjuvant radiation therapy, adjuvant chemotherapy, Ki67, stromal tumor infiltrating lymphocytes (sTILs), and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). Missing values were imputed using single imputation with all variables (including outcomes) included in the imputation model. Backward step-down procedure was used for model selections. The final models were internally validated for calibration and discrimination using bootstrapping methods and compared with AJCC-based models.

Results: For both IDFS and OS, higher sTIL's, less extensive nodal involvement, use of adjuvant chemotherapy, and lower NLR were significant predictors of improved clinical outcomes. Premenopausal status and younger age were additionally predictive of improved IDFS and OS, respectively. Models for IDFS and OS have good calibration and are associated with bias-corrected C-indices of 0.68 and 0.71, respectively, as compared with C-indices of 0.59 and 0.62 for AJCC-based models.

Conclusions: Our data indicate that a clinical calculator that includes sTIL's, NLR, menopausal status, age, nodal involvement as well as chemotherapy use can provide significantly greater prediction of clinical risk than tumor size and nodal status alone. These tools may be used to identify TNBC patients at elevated risk of disease relapse and to aid physician's communication with patients regarding their long-term disease outlook and planning treatment strategies. External validation is required to further evaluate broader applicability of this tool, which was developed utilizing a single-institutional experience.

Citation Format: Polley M-YC, Leon-Ferre RA, Liu H, Gilbert J, Cafourek V, Hillman DW, Negron V, Boughey JC, Liu MC, Ingle JN, Kalari K, Couch F, Visscher DW, Goetz MP. Mayo clinic TNBC outcome calculator: A clinical calculator to predict disease relapse and survival in women with triple-negative breast cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2017 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2017 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2018;78(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P1-06-07.