HIV transmission dynamics and population-wide drug resistance in rural South Africa
Authors: Gupta Ravindra , Kemp Steven , Kamelian Kimia , Cuadros Diego , Gupta Ravindra , Cheng Mark , Okango Elphas , Hanekom Willem , Ndung’u Thumbi , Pillay Deenan , Bonsall David , Wong Emily , Tanser Frank , Siedner Mark 
Published: November 2023

Despite the scale-up of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in South Africa, HIV-1 incidence remains high. The anticipated use of potent integrase strand transfer inhibitors and long-acting injectables aims to enhance viral suppression at the population level and diminish transmission. Nevertheless, pre-existing drug resistance could impede the efficacy of long-acting injectable ART combinations, such as rilpivirine (an NNRTI) and cabotegravir (an INSTI). Consequently, a thorough understanding of transmission networks and geospatial distributions is vital for tailored interventions, including pre-exposure prophylaxis with long-acting injectables. However, empirical data on background resistance and transmission networks remain limited. In a community-based study in rural KwaZulu-Natal (2018–2019), prior to the widespread use of integrase inhibitor-based first-line ART, we performed HIV testing with reflex HIV-1 RNA viral load quantification on 18,025 participants. From this cohort, 6,096 (33.9%) tested positive for HIV via ELISA, with 1,323 (21.7%) exhibiting detectable viral loads (> 40 copies/mL). Of those with detectable viral loads, 62.1% were ART-naïve, and the majority of the treated were on an efavirenz + cytosine analogue + tenofovir regimen. Deep sequencing analysis, with a variant abundance threshold of 20%, revealed NRTI resistance mutations such as M184V in 2% of ART-naïve and 32% of treated individuals. Tenofovir resistance mutations K65R and K70E were found in 12% and 5% of ART-experienced individuals, respectively, and in less than 1% of ART-naïve individuals. Integrase inhibitor resistance mutations were notably infrequent (< 1%). Prevalence of pre-treatment drug resistance to NNRTIs was 10%, predominantly consisting of the K103N mutation. Among those with viraemic ART, NNRTI resistance was 50%, with rilpivirine-associated mutations observed in 9% of treated and 6% of untreated individuals. Cluster analysis revealed that 20% (205/1,050) of those sequenced were part of a cluster. We identified 171 groups with at least two linked participants; three quarters of clusters had only two individuals, and a quarter had 3–6 individuals. Integrating phylogenetic with geospatial analyses, we revealed a complex transmission network with significant clustering in specific regions, notably peripheral and rural areas. These findings derived from population scale genomic analyses are encouraging in terms of the limited resistance to DTG, but indicate that transitioning to long-acting cabotegravir + rilpivirine for transmission reduction should be accompanied by prior screening for rilpivirine resistance. Whole HIV-1 genome sequencing allowed identification of significant proportions of clusters with multiple individuals, and geospatial analyses suggesting decentralised networks can inform targeting public health interventions to effectively curb HIV-1 transmission.