bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Penerapan Undang-undang No. 16 Tahun 2019 Perubahan atas Undang-undang No. 1 Tahun 1974 tentang Batas Usia Perkawinan
Authors: Nuryayi Taufik Dede , Karmila Wati
Published: July 2023

Tujuan penulisan artikel ini adalah untuk mengkaji penerapan Undang-Undang Nomor 16 tahun 2019 tentang perubahan atas Undang-undang nomor 1 tahun 1974 tentang batas usia perkawinan. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah metode penelitian kualitatif, pendekatan pada penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan yuridis empiris, yaitu pendekatan law in action (hukum dalam tindakan) terhadap suatu penelitian yang diaktualisasikan dengan mengkaji keefektivitasan hukum yang berlaku di masyarakat. Berdasarkan fakta dan penomena serta berkembangnya perubahan zaman, bahwa banyaknya perkawinan di bawah umur menyebabkan beberapa persoalan di masyarakat khususnya akibat perkawianan muda. Menurut temuan artikel ini bahwa  ketentuan berlakunya Undang-Undang Nomor 16 Tahun 2019 tentang Perubahan Undang- Undang Nomor 1 Tahun 1974 mengenai ketentuan pasal 7 ayat 1 yang menganulir usia pernikahan menjadi 19 tahun bagi calon mempelai pria dan wanita berdampak pada peningkatan jumlah perkara dispensasi kawin ke pengadilan, khususnya pengadilan agama perlu terus dievaluasi. Undang-undang Nomor 19 Tahun 2019 tentang Perkawinan bisa dikatakan efektif jika dibandingkan sebelum adanya undang-undang. Namun jika ditinjau dari berlakunya Undang-undang sampai dengan sekarang maka aturan tersebut belumlah efektif.
Metode Penerapan Dan Pengembangan Qowa`id Al-Ahkam
Authors: Lidinillah Endin
Published: July 2023

Walaupun sudah ada pengembangan dalam berbagai hal terkait hukum Islam, namun dalam bidang qawa`id al-ahkam (kaidah-kaidah hukum Islam)  pengembangan  itu belum begitu tampak. Padahal pengembangan kaidah fikih yang belum mapan sangat diperlukan. Apalagi kalau kaidah fiqh itu didudukan sebagai bagian dari epistemologi hukum Islam yang membahasa bagaimana cara pembentukan dan perolehan hukum Islam, maka pengembangannya merupakan keniscayaan, karena akan sangat menentukan kemampuan hukum Islam sebagai produknya dalam merespon perubahan sosial yang sangat pesat akibat kemajuan teknologi saat ini. Penelitian pustaka (library research) ini menelusuri permasalahan metode penerapan dan pengembangan qawa`id al-ahkam tersebut.  Hasil penelitian ini  menyimpulkan bahwa dalam menerapkan qawa`idul ahkam, setidaknya ada tiga hal yang perlu diperhatikan agar tepat penggunaannya. Ketiga hal tersebut adalah: (1) kehati-hatian dalam penggunaannya; (2) ketelitian dalam mengamati masalah-masalah yang ada di luar kaidah yang digunakan;  dan (3) memerhatikan sejauh mana kaidah yang di¬gunakan berhubungan dengan kaidah-kaidah lain yang mempunyai ruang lingkup yang lebih luas. Adapun qawa`id al-ahkam  yang perlu dikembangkan dan dikaji ulang mencakup: (1) kaidah-kaidah fikih yang masih diikhtilaf¬kan di kalangan para ulama, yaitu kaidah-kaidah fikih yang masih diper¬debatkan baik substansinya maupun formulasinya, apakah akan men¬jadi kaidah fikih yang mapan atau akan hilang dalam kesejarahan dan keilmuan Islam; (2) kaidah yang sudah ada dan bisa diterima oleh mayoritas ulama, akan tetapi masih mungkin dikritisi untuk penyem¬purnaannya, baik kaidah umumnya, kaidah khususnya, atau kaidah tafshiliyah-nya; (3) memunculkan kaidah-kaidah fikih yang baru karena kebutuhan masyarakat telah jauh berkembang.
The role of lithospheric thermal structure in the development of lateral heterogeneous of the continental collision system
Authors: Liu Mengxue , Yang Dinghui , Qi Rui
Published: July 2023

Abstract. Continental collision is a crucial process in plate tectonics, whereas our understanding regarding the tectonic complexities at such convergent plate boundary remains largely unclear in terms of the evolution and the controlling parameters of its lateral heterogeneity. In this study, we conducted a series of two-dimensional numerical experiments to investigate how continental lithospheric thermal structure influences the development of lateral heterogeneity along the continental collision zone. Two end members were achieved: 1) Continuous subduction mode, which prevails when the model has a cold procontinental moho (Tmoho ≤ 450 °C). In this case, a narrow collision orogen develops, and the subducting angle steepens with the increasing retrocontinental Tmoho. 2) Continental subduction with a slab break-off, which generates a relative wide collision orogen, and dominates when the model has a relative hot procontinental Tmoho (≥ 500 °C), especially when the Tmoho ≥ 550 °C. In contrast, Hr is the second-order controlling parameter in varying the continental collision mode, while it prefers to enhance strain localization in the upper part of the continental lithosphere and promote the growth of shear zones there. By comparing the model results with geoscience observations, we suggest that the discrepant evolutionary paths from the continuous subduction underlying the Hindu Kush to the continental subduction after slab break-off beneath eastern Tibet may originate from the inherited lateral inhomogeneity of Indian lithospheric thermal structure. Besides, the high content of crustal radioactive elements may be one of the important factors that controls the formation of large thrust fault zones in the Himalayas.
The influences of incorporating dynamical external forcing in WRF v3.8.1 on regional climate simulation in China
Authors: Feng Jinming , Luo Meng , Wang Jun , Qiu Yuan , Wu Qizhong , Wang Ke
Published: July 2023

Abstract. External forcing is the driving force of climate system, which has significant impact on long-term climate changes. Unlike in the Global Climate Models whose external forcing is clearly prescribed, whether or not to use spatial-temporal varying external forcing to force the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) is still lacking evaluations. Here we modify the regional climate model WRF v3.8.1 to include all kinds of spatial-temporal varying external forcing components, and further investigate the impact of dynamical forcing on the long-term simulation in China. The results showed that different external forcing configurations in WRF could result in a variation range of 0.08 °C/10a for annual temperature trend and 19.9 mm/10a for annual precipitation trend in Eastern China (EC), whose impact was stronger than parameterization schemes but was weaker than spectral nudging. The influence of spectral nudging on long-term trend also depended on the configuration of parameterization schemes and external forcing. The WRF model could reasonably reproduce the forcing response pattern of temperature, precipitation, and associated radiative and circulation anomaly changes. The forced annual temperature trend in China could be roughly explained by the linear superposition of GHGs and anthropogenic aerosols, while the forcing response pattern of summer precipitation trend was mainly determined by anthropogenic aerosols. Therefore, we recommend that when using RCMs for long-term simulations, one should first run a long-term preliminary test to determine whether or not to use nudging, and it is better to use all set of varying forcing components than to use varying GHGs only.
Mineralogy and mineral chemistry of detrital platinum-group minerals and gold particles from the Elbe, Germany
Authors: Junge Malte , Goldmann Simon , Wotruba Hermann
Published: July 2023

Abstract. In heavy mineral concentrates of the Elbe, gold and
platinum-group minerals (PGMs) are observed. Two fractions (> 63
and < 63 µm) of the concentrate are analyzed by
reflected-light microscopy, scanning electron microscopy with automated
mineralogy software and electron microprobe analysis (EPMA). Other heavy
minerals are cassiterite, ferberite, monazite, uraninite,
columbite–tantalite, magnetite, zircon and cinnabar. Scanning electron
microscopy determined the modal abundance of PGMs, gold and the other heavy
minerals. The PGMs are mainly Os–Ir–Ru–(Pt) alloys, Pt–Fe alloys, sperrylite
and rustenburgite. Compositional variation of PGMs and gold was analyzed by
EPMA. This showed that Pt–Fe alloys are (1) native platinum (> 80 atom %), (2) ferroan Pt (20 atom % to 50 atom % Fe), (3) isoferroplatinum (2.64 to 3.04 apfu of sum PGE, platinum-group
element), (4) tetraferroplatinum group with Ni + Cu + Fe ≈ 50 atom %, and (5)
γ(Pt,Fe) with sum PGE > 3.04 apfu. The Os–Ir–Ru–(Pt)
alloys show large compositional variations. Platinum and Fe enrichment is
typically observed for Ir-rich Os–Ir–Ru alloys. Gold particles often show
compositional zoning of Ag-rich cores and Ag-poor rims due to selective
leaching of Ag. Similarly, Hg-rich rims of gold particles are analyzed.
These are interpreted as the results of in situ amalgamation due to mobilization of
Hg from the associated cinnabar particles. The size and shape of the gold
particles generally argue for short transportation distances. Similarly,
almost euhedral sperrylite and Pt–Fe alloys suggest a source region close to
the sampling site. However, roundish Os–Ir–Ru–(Pt) alloys presumably have
experienced longer transportation in the river. Gabbroic dikes of the
Lusatia block contain sperrylite and gold particles, which can be the source
for these particles found in the concentrate. The composition of the
Os–Ir–Ru–(Pt) alloys is similar to previous studies on the Vestřev
placer in Czech Republic. Both locations are within the drainage area of the
Elbe and can therefore be the source of the PGM and gold particles in
the concentrate.
Large-Scale Atmospheric Drivers of Compound Cold Spells in North America and Wet or Windy Extremes in Europe
Authors: Messori Gabriele , Faranda Davide
Published: July 2023

Recent winters have witnessed an ostensibly large number of cold spell occurrences over Eastern North America and wet or windy weather over Western Europe. These extremes have typically been discussed separately. However, their repeated co-occurrence suggests that they may be spatially compounding extremes, namely geographically remote extremes associated with common physical drivers. Here, we analyse the interplay between the large-scale atmospheric circulation and co-occurring cold spells in North America and wet or windy extremes in Europe, which we collectively term compound cold–wet–windy extremes. We leverage a recent approach grounded in dynamical systems theory, which allows to compute the instantaneous coupling between different atmospheric variables, thus providing an analytically and computationally efficient analysis of spatially resolved, multivariate climate extremes. We specifically seek to answer the following questions:

Do cold spells over Eastern North America and wet or windy extremes over Western Europe individually emerge as events with a particularly strong coupling to recurrent large-scale circulation patterns?
Is there evidence for recurrent large-scale circulation patterns systematically associated with the co-occurrence of these extremes?

In answer to the first question, we find that there are indeed specific, recurrent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns systematically associated with the individual cold, wet or windy extremes. We further find that a similar conclusion holds for co-occurring cold–wet–windy anomalies in the two continents. In answer to the second question, evidence for common, recurrent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns is also found when focusing on compound cold–wet–windy extremes, although with a weaker signal than for the larger group of cold–wet–windy anomalies. We thus hypothesise that the compound extreme occurrences may be linked to multiple dynamical pathways, which may differ from those associated with weaker surface anomalies. The extremes may further be modulated by small-scale effects not reflected in the large-scale atmospheric circulation.
Toward Effective Communication of Agrometeorological Services
Authors: Cegnar Tanja , Tarchiani Vieri , Raymond Joanna , Schultz David , Lalic Branislava , Finkele Klara , Boogaard Hendrik , Lifka Saskia
Published: July 2023

Agrometeorological services are a subset of climate services targeted to support farmers' tactical and strategic decisions, with the potential to support farmers’ capacity to cope with climate variability and change, as well as strengthen their resilience toward climatic risks. However, the effectiveness of such services is often limited by inadequate and unsuitable means of communication with farmers. Therefore, in recent years, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and partners have focussed their efforts on improving communication through these services. At the European Meteorological Society (EMS) Annual Meeting in September 2022, a workshop on effective communication of agrometeorological services was held as a hybrid side event, with the aim of answering the question: “How can we deliver efficient and effective agrometeorological services?” The workshop was a joint endeavor of Met Éireann, the International Society of Biometeorology, the EMS Media and Communication Committee, the Slovenian Environment Agency, the Slovenian Meteorological Society, and the S. W. Tromp Foundation. The aim of this workshop was to advance better communication of services to the agriculture sector as a basis for promoting adaptive strategies for weather and climate change, which would enable sufficient food production at present and in the future.  The workshop also provided an opportunity for transdisciplinary discussions between national meteorological and hydrological services, universities, research institutes, private companies, and the WMO. The topics discussed at the workshop included learning about exemplar agrometeorological services at various national hydrometeorological services, strengthening communication of agrometeorological services to end-users, improving data and information sharing, and educating end-users. The workshop resulted in a list of recommendations for the future.
From Research to Operations: Empowering a Climate-Resilient Transport System in Germany - Illustrating the Function and Interaction Between the Federal Research Program BMDV Network of Experts, and the DAS Core Service 'Climate and Water'
Authors: Klippel Lara , Hänsel Stephanie , Leps Nora , Brendel Christoph , Seiffert Rita , Patzwahl Regina , Schade Nils , Nilson Enno
Published: July 2023

In the recent years, numerous extreme weather events caused significant disruptions and constraints of the transport along federal roads, railways, and waterways. The climate impacts range from extreme high or low water levels, windthrow events, storm surges, mass movements to embankment fires. With the projected further warming of the globe such extremes and related impacts will become more frequent, which challenges the goal of a reliable transport system and potentially limits many economic activities depending on the transportation of goods.
To support the transport sector's climate resilience and investigate future changes in the frequency, duration, and magnitude of adverse climate impacts, the Federal Ministry for Digital and Transport in Germany (BMDV) established the BMDV Network of Experts in 2016. This research program combines the expertise of seven departmental research institutes and specialized authorities. Using consistent climate scenarios and the same climate model database, the program explores atmospheric, hydrospheric, and oceanographic changes and their direct and indirect impacts on traffic infrastructure. The research outcomes include new methods, datasets, maps, and prototypes of practitioner-oriented tools to assess future changes in the exposure and sensitivity of transport infrastructure and traffic streams on different spatial scales. The products are made available to infrastructure planers and operators, and their feedback and suggestions are integrated to generate new research questions.
Infrastructure operators, such as the Federal Waterways and Shipping Administration or Deutsche Bahn AG, require continuously updated climate (impact) data linked with a consultation service to plan, evaluate, implement, and monitor adaptation measures. Such requirements cannot be met by a research program. Therefore, the DAS core service 'Climate and Water' was established in 2020 to translate research outcomes into products that are tailored to users and are constantly available. The service combines the knowledge of four federal authorities. It includes results from research programs such as the BDMV Network of Experts, and makes them permanently available while keeping them up-to-date. It also integrates them into the specific work processes and data structures of the respective authorities.
An exemplary demonstration of the benefits for infrastructure operators resulting from the interaction between the research program and the service is shown through the use of gridded climate products (observational and projection data). These data were developed in the BDMV network of experts, consolidated, and made routinely available through the DAS core service 'Climate and Water' for practical use by infrastructure operators and other users.
The AROBASE project: Development of a kilometre-scale multi-coupled modelling and forecasting system and first results
Authors: Lebeaupin Brossier Cindy , Sevault Florence , Faure Ghislain , Bouin Marie-Noëlle , Beuvier Jonathan , Bielli Soline , Corale Laëtitia , Dalphinet Alice , Malardel Sylvie
Published: July 2023

The AROBASE project aims to assemble a kilometre-scale limited-area multi-coupled modelling system of the physico-chemical atmosphere, the ocean (including sea-ice and marine biogeochemistry), waves and land surfaces (soil, vegetation, cities, snow, lakes and rivers) with important development criteria that are i) the transportable nature of the regional multi-coupled model and ii) the modular aspect to couple the relevant environmental components according to different applications. The AROBASE platform that will combine the AROME atmospheric model (with online chemistry and interactive aerosols) with the external surface model SURFEX, CTRIP for hydrological routing, NEMO and MFWAM for ocean and waves respectively, is built in the line of a seamless continuum of coupled modelling systems developed and used at CNRM, LACY and Météo-France.
AROBASE will first help to improve the understanding and representation of the exchange processes between the compartments of the meteorological and environmental system at fine scale. It is also a new tool for high-resolution numerical weather prediction, which makes it particularly necessary to guarantee its performance in the forecast mode and its relevance for monitoring and anticipating meteorological phenomena and their consequences. AROBASE is finally an important step to prepare the new generation of the regional climate model (CNRM-RCSM) towards a kilometre resolution with new integrated components.
The first results of the AROBASE platform will be presented during the conference, with a focus on the ocean-atmosphere-wave coupling, the air-sea interactions implied during severe meteorological situations over France metropolitan area and over-seas domains and impacts on numerical weather prediction.
Surface Solar Radiation based on Satellite Observations – the new CM SAF SARAH-3 Climate Data Record
Authors: Pfeifroth Uwe , Drücke Jaqueline , Kothe Steffen , Trentmann Jörg
Published: July 2023

The EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Climate Monitoring (CM SAF) generates and distributes high quality long-term climate data records (CDR) of energy and water cycle parameters, which are freely available.
In 2023, finally the new edition of the “Surface Solar Radiation data set – Heliosat” has been released: SARAH-3. As the previous editions, the SARAH-3 climate data record is based on satellite observations from the first and second METEOSAT generations and provides various surface radiation parameters, including global radiation, direct radiation, sunshine duration, photosynthetic active radiation and others. The SARAH-3 climate data records are accompanied by a corresponding near-realtime processing (so-called interim climate data records). With that, SARAH-3 covers the time period since 1983 with a timeliness of 1 day and offers 30-minute instantaneous data as well as daily and monthly means on a regular 0.05° x 0.05° lon/ lat grid. Compared to previous versions, the data quality of SARAH-3 has been substantially improved over snow-covered surfaces, e.g, in the Alpine region, by the use of an internally derived snow information. SARAH-3 enables a wide range of applications – from model verification and renewable energy assessments to operational climate monitoring.
In this presentation, an overview of the SARAH climate data record and example applications will be given. After presenting the SARAH-3 developments and validation results, SARAH-3 will be used for the analysis of climate variability and potential trends in Europe during the last decades. The data record reveals that there is a positive trend of surface solar radiation in Europe during the last decades, which is superimposed by decadal and regional variability. 
Assessment of drought severity in the Czech Republic from 1961 to 2022
Authors: Mozny Martin , Vlach Vojtech , Hajkova Lenka , Musilova Adela , Ouskova Veronika
Published: July 2023

Drought monitoring is based on the analysis of a series of drought indicators. Our analysis was carried out using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) with regard to five different time scales (1, 3, 6, 12, and 24 months). One-month indices better capture short-term moisture conditions, while three- and six-month indices describe medium-term conditions, and twelve- and twenty-four-month indices focus on long-term conditions. Potential evapotranspiration was calculated using the Hargreaves-Samani method. Drought was defined as a sequence of months with negative index values. In addition, spatial and temporal variability, frequency, duration, and intensity of drought in the Czech Republic were analyzed during the study period. Furthermore, the distribution of drought in different elevations was also examined.
Remarkable spatial differences were found in the duration and intensity of drought. Generally, the results of the SPEI index assessment showed longer duration and higher intensity of drought compared to the SPI index assessment. Increasing temperatures cause increased evaporation, particularly in the summer season, leading to an increase in events referred to as flash droughts.
The assessment of drought showed the exceptional nature of the period 2014-2020, which peaked in 2018. This applies to both the duration and intensity of drought. This unprecedented drought had a negative impact on the state of forest stands in the Czech Republic, especially spruce stands, which suffered from water stress and were unable to resist bark beetle calamity. Repeated droughts led to accelerated tree mortality. This contribution highlights the importance of the increasing potential of more frequent and more severe drought events in Central Europe.
 
Analysis of the Swiss urban climate over the past five years
Authors: Canton Jacopo , Dipankar Anurag
Published: July 2023

Switzerland is home to several medium to small cities, usually situated on lakes or large rivers and always in the proximity of mountains. Both size and location contribute to reducing the dominance of the urban climate over the local weather systems, e.g., lake breezes, mountain and valley winds, but the interaction between Swiss cities and the local climate has long been monitored with measurements [1].This contribution presents a numerical analysis of the alpine country over the past five years (2017-2022). The focus is on the urban climate and urban heat island (UHI) effect. The simulations are performed with the Consortium for Small-Scale Modeling (COSMO) model at a resolution of 1.1km, with explicit convection, and are validated against measurements by the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology. The bulk scheme TERRA_URB [2] is employed for modelling urban areas and is provided with a 100m-resolution state-of-the-art database for the subdivision of the urban landscape into local climate zones (LCZ) [3].Our findings show that the UHI of Swiss cities (i.e., the temperature delta between city centre and a rural reference) closely follows the weather patterns measured over the same period and does not show a net positive trend, despite the continuous urbanization of the country which is in line with the European average [4]. The number of tropical nights (i.e., nights when the temperature did not drop below 20C) and other “classic” measures show comparable trends. The only year exhibiting a clear variation is 2022, which was a record warm year for large parts of Europe. Regarding UHI the worst affected city is Zurich, with a time averaged maximum UHI of around 3C, while most other large cities have values of 2-2.5C and smaller cities between 0.5 and 2C. Lugano, the only city in our analysis south of the Alps, presents the highest number of tropical nights, followed by Geneva and Lausanne.Simulations allow us to investigate the space-dependent nature of the UHI effect, which is especially insightful for medium-small cities. We present such an analysis for the ten largest Swiss cities, providing an objective quantification of the effects caused by different LCZs and geographical features, as well as a direct intercomparison between similarly built-up areas in different cities. The seasonality of UHI as well as the influence of weather patterns on its magnitude are also analysed, completing the spatiotemporal picture of the country’s current urban climate.
[1] Wanner, H., & Hertig, J.-A. (1984) J. Clim. Appl. Meteorol., 23(12) https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<1614:SOUCAA>2.0.CO;2[2] Wouters, H., et al. (2016) Geosci. Model Dev., 9(9) https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3027-2016[3] Demuzere, M., et al. (2022) Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 14(8) https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-14-3835-2022[4] https://www.meteoswiss.admin.ch/climate/climate-change/heatwaves-droughts-cold-and-snowfall.html
On convective enhancement of Vb-events in present and warmer climate
Authors: Ahrens Bodo , Hamouda Mostafa
Published: July 2023

An important source of floods in Central Europe are so-called Vb cyclones (i.e., cyclones that move across the Mediterranean Sea and then move northward toward Central Europe along the eastern flank of the European Alps). Embedded convective precipitation contributes to flood risk through Vb precipitation events. This contribution depends on temperature and additional variables.
This study presents km-scale, i.e. convection-permitting, simulations with limited-area model COSMO-CLM using the MedCORDEX domain and quantification of the convective precipitation contribution during a set of extreme Vb events using a Lagrangian method for tracking convective cells [1]. In addition, this set of km-scale Vb event simulations is used to train a diagnostic of the convective fraction (based on simulated vertical velocity and vorticity in the mid-troposphere) following Poujol et al. [2]. This diagnostic method, applied to a coupled MedCORDEX COSMO-CLM/NEMO regional climate simulation with an atmospheric grid spacing of about 12 km, allows us to investigate and quantify the change in the convective fraction of Vb precipitation in an SSP5-8.5 climate scenario. In this simulation, the mean Vb precipitation decreases over the course of the century, but the convective fraction, and thus the flood risk associated with locally intense precipitation, increases.
[1] Purr. C., E. Brisson, and B. Ahrens, Convective rain cell characteristics and scaling in climate projections for Germany, Int. J. of Climatology, 41, 3174-3185 (2021).
[2] Poujol, B., S. Sobolowski, P.A. Mooney, S. Berthou, A physically based precipitation separation algorithm for convection‐permitting models over complex topography, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146, 748-761 (2019).
 
Frequencies, Variations and Trends in Atmospheric Circulation Types over Bulgaria and their climatological impacts in the last 150 years
Authors: Pophristov Vulcho
Published: July 2023

Everyday weather conditions and meteorological situations at a given point or area on the earth's surface are primarily a function of the atmospheric circulation conditions above it. On monthly, seasonal or annual basis these daily conditions form atmospheric circulation in climatological aspect. Many climatological studies are dedicated to the baric formations and their positions relative to a given area. Thus, cyclones and anticyclones strongly affect the weather conditions through the values of the variety of the meteorological elements as the wind speed and direction, temperature and precipitation quantities. The multi-year fluctuations of the circulation also shape it from a climatic point of view. The classification of circulation types over Bulgaria in present work is made on daily basis using subjective (manual) approach, covers 150-year period (1871-2020) and is based on the data of two atmospheric levels – mean sea level pressure (SLP) and 500 hPa in the middle troposphere, derived from “20th century reanalysis” visualization maps. The circulation types are composed as the position of the center of the baric formations relative to the territory of Bulgaria. The methods used in composing the atmospheric classification and the circulation types are explained in detail in a previous study. 13 atmospheric circulation types are separated at 500 hPa level (5 anti-cyclonic and 8 cyclonic) and 16 at the surface (6 anti-cyclonic, 8 cyclonic and 2 low gradient). Annual and seasonal frequencies as well as seasonal distribution of all circulation types in the examined period at both levels are presented and analyzed. Some of the types are united in order to emphasize their climatological impact. Trend analyzes are performed on all 29 circulation types and on some type combinations, as for this aim the methods of Man-Kendall and Sen Slope estimator are used. A special attention is paid to the high throws and cyclones at 500 hPa and their major influence on surface cyclogenesis and respectively to the precipitation regime in different parts of the country. Some other suggestions are proposed and conclusions are made, as the increased influence, at least concerning the region of Balkan Peninsula of the Azores anticyclone in the last four decades.
Dry intrusions in the rear of Mediterranean cyclones govern large-scale dust storms in North Africa
Authors: Raveh-Rubin Shira , Fluck Elody
Published: July 2023

Large dust storms in the Saharan desert and the subsequent transport of airborne dust over large distances are a major meteorological hazard. Several mechanisms associated to dust emission, occurring on a range of scales, have been previously documented, notably involving Rossby wave breaking and a low-level jet. However, the mechanistic link between the different features and actual dust concentrations has not been coherently established. Here, using a Lagrangian approach, and the conceptual view of extratropical cyclone airstreams, the role of the dry intrusion (DI) airstream for translating the influence of the upper-tropospheric Rossby wave perturbation to near-surface flow conductive for the highest dust concentrations is examined. To this end, illustrative cases and a climatological set of 325 large-scale dust storms accompanied by dry intrusions in west Africa during 2003-2018 are studied. Data from the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS) are combined with atmospheric data from reanalysis and objectively-identified Lagrangian trajectories of dry intrusions. We find that dry intrusions link Rossby wave breaking in the east Atlantic with the lower-tropospheric dry and cold jets. These conditions favor dust uplift and transport along an arc-shaped cold front trailing from a Mediterranean cyclone. Consequently, the southwest side of the front is characterized by the highest near-surface dust concentrations ahead of the dry intrusion outflow. The northeast part of the front is, however, accompanied by southerly, warm conveyor belt-like flow transporting the dust northward to the Mediterranean, Middle East and/or Europe at mid and upper-tropospheric levels. Climatologically, such dust-DI events occur mostly in late winter and spring, when they are also larger in size and last longer, compared to summer events. When occurring with DIs, dust optical depth is generally higher, compared to events that are not accompanied by DIs. Focusing further on March events, we find coherent large-scale precursors of dust-DI events: a northward jet shift over the North Atlantic with anticyclonic Rossby wave breaking occurring on average 4-5 days prior to the events.
Convective parameters for severe weather forecasting and research in Australia
Authors: Warren Robert , Blockley Ivor , Sgarbossa Dean , Richter Harald
Published: July 2023

The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has recently operationalized a post-processing suite called ConvParams, which computes a wide array of convective parameters using output from the BoM’s global deterministic and ensemble NWP models. Outputs from the suite include parcel parameters such as CAPE and CIN (computed for a range of different initial parcels), kinematic diagnostics such as bulk wind difference and storm-relative helicity (computed for a range of different atmospheric layers), and composite indices such as the supercell composite parameter and significant tornado parameter. In addition, the suite also identifies important features in the atmospheric profile such as capping inversions and elevated mixed layers. A unique feature of ConvParams, compared to other similar codebases (NSHARP/SHARPpy, MetPy) is its use of high-order polynomials to approximate pseudoadiabatic processes, which permits parcel calculations that are both fast and highly accurate. Significant computational advantages also come from the use of an ahead-of-time compiler (Pythran), which “transpiles” the native Python code into fast C++ code. As well as being used in operations, ConvParams is being run as part of the second-generation BoM Atmospheric Regional Reanalysis for Australia (BARRA2), a regional downscaling of the ERA5 reanalysis, and the BoM Atmospheric Regional Projections for Australia (BARPA), a regional downscaling of CMIP6 climate projections. Once complete, these simulations will provide the most comprehensive picture of historical and future convective environments in Australia to date, supporting major research in this space over the coming years. This presentation will provide an overview of the ConvParams suite and highlight its applications in both operational forecasting and future research endeavours.  
Climate modes and synoptic patterns associated with widespread wind and solar lows in Australia
Authors: Richardson Doug
Published: July 2023

Australia has significant potential for solar and wind energy generation. The size of the country, including its latitudinal extent, means its resource potential varies dramatically both in space and throughout the year. In the northern tropics, sunshine is relatively abundant year-round. In the mid-latitudes, solar power is weakened in winter, leaving a greater reliance on other forms of generation. The eastern states have plans to install significant capacity in onshore wind, offshore wind and solar energy generation and battery storage across nearly 40 Renewable Energy Zones. These will complement existing capacity and hydroelectric schemes.
This talk examines the occurrence and co-occurrence of wind and solar lulls across Australia, with an emphasis on the eastern state Renewable Energy Zones. We focus on spatially-compounding events that have the potential to impact large-scale energy generation through affecting a substantial number of energy farms simultaneously. We will assess the likelihood and extent to which these events can occur both for individual Zones and across the entire network. We also analyse the synoptic processes associated with these large-scale events, and whether they may also affect energy demand through heating or cooling requirements in major cities. The talk will also investigate the role of large-scale climate modes of variability, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole and the Southern Annular Mode, in modulating wind and solar lull occurrences. These modes are a key feature of Australia’s climate variability, and hence may be a useful resource when assessing the likelihood of reduced or enhanced renewable energy generation in upcoming months and seasons.
Application of Ensemble Forecasts in Predicting and Assessing the Effectiveness of Rain Enhancement using Cloud Seeding
Authors: Belorid Miloslav , Kim Bu-yo , Koo Haejung , Cha Joo Wan
Published: July 2023

In countries where drought is a serious threat to agriculture, water resources and increases risk of wildfires, there has been an increasing interest in using weather modification techniques to improve local precipitation.  Despite the fact that cloud seeding is used in many places around the world, there is still not a clear consensus on its effectiveness. Various evaluation methods, including aircraft and ground-based measurements, remote sensing, statistical analysis, and numerical simulation have been widely used to evaluate the effect of cloud seeding. While each of these methods has its own benefits, they also come with limitations. For example, numerical models can simulate cases with and without cloud seeding and these scenarios can be then compared to determine how much rainfall increases after the seeding. Predictions provided by such scenarios can help with decision-making before conducting a cloud seeding experiment. The downside of numerical simulations is the presence of both systematic and random errors that originate from uncertainties initial conditions and numerical approximations. Ensemble forecasts can capture some of these uncertainties and provide a range of possible outcomes. The main goal of this study is to explore the potential of an ensemble forecasting system in evaluating the efficacy of cloud seeding. We used a limited-area ensemble forecasting system which is based on Met Office Unified Model coupled with Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF). The initial conditions of 13 ensemble members were created by downscaling of global ensemble model that was perturbed using the Ensemble transform Kalman filter. The WRF model was used to downscale the ensemble members to a finer resolution and simulate the seeding effect using an algorithm that was added to the Morrison microphysics scheme. As study cases, we utilized several cloud seeding experiments that were conducted during the weather modification campaign of 2022 and 2023 by the National Institute of Meteorological Sciences and the Korea Meteorological Administration. Ground-based hygroscopic cloud seeding was conducted in the mountainous region of South Korea using calcium chloride flares. Simulations were conducted for scenarios with and without seeding, and the difference in rainfall we assessed using ensemble mean, ensemble spread, and probabilities of various rainfall increment thresholds. The overall ensemble performance in rain predictability of the ensemble forecasts was evaluated using commonly used techniques, including the Brier score, reliability diagrams and ROC curves.
Acknowledgments: This work was funded by the Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program “Research on Weather Modification and Cloud Physics” under Grant (KMA2018-00224).
Influence of the winter Atlantic Niño on the North Atlantic-European atmospheric circulation
Authors: Gil-Reyes Laura , García-Serrano Javier , Volpi Danila
Published: July 2023

One of the leading modes of sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the Tropical Atlantic is the Atlantic Niño (ATLN). It shows two peaks of variability along the seasonal cycle: the first one occurs in boreal summer, which is the maximum and has been widely studied; the second one takes place in early winter (November-December) and has been much less investigated. Previous studies have shown potential for this early-winter SST variability mode to be a source of predictability for the North Atlantic-European (NAE) region. Coupled simulations and atmosphere-only experiments with the CMIP6 version of the climate model EC-EARTH (T255L91) have been performed and analysed to revisit the ATLN-NAE atmospheric teleconnection and further improve process understanding. The coupled simulation consists in a 250-year long integration, after spin-up, with fixed radiative forcing at present conditions; the atmospheric response is estimated by linear regression onto the winter Atlantic Niño index defined by Okumura&Xie. The atmosphere-only experiments comprise two 150-year long integrations keeping the radiative forcing fixed, a control run with climatological SSTs and a sensitivity run prescribing the observed ATLN with climatology elsewhere; the atmospheric response is evaluated by comparing both experiments. The atmospheric anomaly associated with ATLN shows a local Gill-type response, symmetrically straddling the equator, whose amplitude increases from November-December to January-February. In the extratropics it depicts a barotropic structure, yielding a wave-like pattern in early winter and a dipolar structure at mid-latitudes (different from the North Atlantic Oscillation) in late winter. In both seasons, the atmospheric response to ATLN displays statistically-significant precipitation anomalies over Europe.
Analysing hydroclimatic changes in the Upper-Tisza catchment under mitigation and non-mitigation scenarios
Authors: Kis Anna , Pongrácz Rita , Szabó János Adolf
Published: July 2023

Changing climatic conditions affect several sectors and processes in the environment, including river discharge. It is important to estimate the probable changes, as it may play an important role in flood defence, ecosystems, transportation, energy supply or water-management. Our ultimate aim is to analyse the runoff conditions in a small European catchment, namely, the Upper-Tisza basin. As a first step of our investigation, climatic conditions are analysed for the target area.
For the analysis the observation-based CARPATCLIM dataset and 11 regional climate model simulations from the EURO-CORDEX program are used. Three 30-year-long time periods are selected (1972–2001, 2021–2050, 2069–2098) and three different scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) are applied to analyse the future conditions from an immediate reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission to a later reduction, and finally no mitigation throughout the 21st century. Therefore, uncertainties emerging from both the applied model and the applied scenario can be assessed. Temperature and precipitation characteristics are calculated on a monthly basis for the entire domain, and for six hydrological stations (namely, Alsókalocsa, Bisztra, Királymező, Ökörmező, Rahó, Tiszabecs). Beside the mean values, different percentile values and climate indices are determined, e.g. the consecutive dry days, the number of precipitation days with more than 5, 10 and 20 mm, the highest one-day and five-day precipitation amount, the number of cold days and frost days.
According to our results, higher temperature values will occur in the entire area. The greatest warming in the Upper-Tisza basin is projected for January, when temperature increase can exceed 4.6 °C by the end of the 21st century according to the multi-model mean under the RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation is projected to increase in winter, while a precipitation decrease in summer is likely to occur according to the RCP8.5 scenario. Higher temperature (which may result in less snow) and altered temporal distribution of precipitation clearly have an effect on runoff conditions, so in order to analyse them in details, the next step of our research is to run the DIWA hydrological model driven by the different climate model simulations.
Deep learning for post-processing global probabilistic forecasts on sub-seasonal time-scales
Authors: Horat Nina , Lerch Sebastian
Published: July 2023

Even though sub-seasonal weather forecasts are crucial for the decision making in many sectors including agriculture, public health and renewable energy production, sub-seasonal predictions are hardly used due to their low skill. We propose several post-processing approaches based on convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to improve and calibrate sub-seasonal forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. All proposed methods work directly with the spatial NWP forecasts and are therefore able to retain spatial dependencies in the forecasts. Moreover, these methods have the potential to exploit the predictive information in the spatial structure of the NWP forecasts.
The proposed post-processing models use forecast fields of multiple meteorological variables as input, and produce global probabilistic tercile forecasts for biweekly aggregates of temperature and precipitation for weeks 3-4 and 5-6, as commonly done in sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction. The model architectures and the training strategy are optimized to deal with the low signal-to-noise ratio in sub-seasonal forecasts and the limited amount of training data. Half of the tested architectures use the well-known UNet architecture specifically designed for image segmentation. The remaining architectures are based on a standard CNN as typically used for image classification, with the difference that it estimates coefficient values for a set of basis functions to provide spatial predictions.
All post-processing methods improve precipitation and temperature forecasts for both lead times. Improvements increase with lead time and are larger for precipitation, for which the NWP forecasts show no skill. Our best performing model is based on the UNet architecture and trained directly on the global NWP forecasts. The post-processed forecasts are substantially less sharp than the respective probabilistic forecasts from ECMWF for all tested methods. We demonstrate that the post-processed forecasts are well calibrated in contrast to the ECMWF benchmark using a calibration simplex, a reliability diagram for probabilistic tercile forecasts. Thus, our proposed post-processing methods are able to derive a reliable uncertainty estimate based only on ensemble mean NWP forecasts.
Changes in short-term rainfall characteristics in long station series
Authors: Crhova Lenka , Valeriánová Anna , Kliegrová Stanislava
Published: July 2023

Changes in frequency and intensity of precipitation belong to important potential impacts of climate change. Moreover, characteristics of short-term rainfalls, especially their intensity and design values, are very important for technical (e.g., sewage system) and hydrological practice. However, the measurement of rainfall intensity and related data processing are fairly complicated.
The rainfall intensity has been regularly measured in the Czech Republic since 1898 with a few manual pluviographs. Automatic rain gauges started to replace them in the late 1990s. Nowadays, a large part of historical pluviographs records has been digitalized. Both the digitalized pluviographs records and the automatic rain gauge measurement provide rainfall series in temporal resolution of 1 minute. Concerning the joined series of these two types of measurement, the relatively long series of rainfall intensity are available. The series longer than 60 years are available for 20 stations of the Czech Hydrometeorological Institute.
In our contribution, we focus on changes in characteristics of short-term rainfalls of varying duration (10–360 min) at a few selected stations with the longest series of measurement. Differences among short-term rainfall datasets gained from different sub-periods of the whole measurement period are analyzed. Besides datasets characteristics (e.g., annual maxima, numbers of rainfalls above a threshold) the return levels estimated from different sub-periods are compared. As the joined manual pluviographs and automatic rain gauge series are considered, a potential inhomogeneity caused by the change of the type of measurement needs to be studied and a possibility to use these series in long-term analyses needs to be discussed.