bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Intergenerational Mobility and Long-term Socio-economic Change in
Pakistan
Authors: Havinga Ivo C. , Mohammad Faiz , Cohen Suleiman I.
Published: August 2018

Development process may entail changes in the socio-economic
positions of people from one generation to the other. In Pakistan, no
attempt has so far been made to study the lines on which people gain
upward mobility or the factors which are involved in this process. This
paper is an attempt in this direction. By using data from primary
sources, we aim at .explaining the income and wealth positions of
Pakistanis from different generations in terms of their endowments of
social, human and physical capital and other socio-economic
characteristics. The assessment of incidence and nature of such mobility
would enable us to identify the processes through which different
socio-economic groups attempt to improve their positions in a changing
society.
The Role of Small-scale Industry in Pakistan's Economy and
Government Incentives
Authors: Malik Muhammad Hussain , Cheema Aftab Ahmad
Published: August 2018

Despite the recognition of the importance of small-scale
industry, the Government of Pakistan's industrial policy has been biased
in the past towards the large-scale manufacturing sector. The First Five
Year Plan (1955-60) document states the significance of small-scale
industry in the following words. Small industry has specific
contributions to make to economic development. In the first place, it
can contribute to the output of needed goods without requiring the
organization of large new enterprises or the use of much foreign
exchange to finance the import of new equipment. Secondly, it can
provide opportunities for employment beyond the narrow boundaries of
urban centres. Finally, as history shows, it can perform an important
function in promoting growth, providing training ground for management
and labour, and spreading industrial knowledge over wide areas [8, p.
471] .
Choice of Techniques: A Case Study of the Cottonseed
Oil-extraction Industry in Pakistan
Authors: Mallk Sohail J.
Published: August 2018

This paper analyses the choice of techniques at the product
level with a view to evaluating the claim made by Stewart [17] and
others that "choice of technique is eliminated once choice of product is
made". We consider the extraction of edible oil from cottonseed as a
case study. Use is made of engineering data, coupled with product and
factor price data from Pakistan, to examine the possibilities of factor
substitution at the micro level for a reasonably well-defined product.
The product in this case is well defined, although there are some
qualitative differences associated with different methods of extraction.
Social Rates of Return in Pakistan's Large-scale Manufacturing
Sector
Authors: Sahibzada Shamim A. , Mahmood Mir Annice
Published: August 2018

The paper attempts to estimate social rates of return in
Pakistan's large-scale manufacturing sector. As cut-off rates, they can
help in the selection of public and private sector projects and can also
be used as' estimates of the Accounting Rate of Interest (ARI) which can
then be used as test discount rates in the economic analysis of
projects. In the context of Pakistan, our study makes an important
contribution in that whereas the discount rates hitherto used in the
country for an economic appraisal of projects have all been determined
arbitrarily,1 we, in this study provide first ever rates that have been
arrived at empirically. For example, the discount rate used in both
private and public sector investment projects for a considerable period
of time was arbitrarily fixed at 12 percent. The reason given for
choosing this estimate was that it was based on the rate used by lending
institutions on the loans they advanced to various development-oriented
agencies. The Fifth Five Year Plan (1978-83) raised this rate to 20
percent for the industrial projects which were to be undertaken in the
public sector because it required this sector to generate more funds
[9]. Also, during this period, it had been decided that a cut-off rate
of 15 percent would be applicable to private-sector industrial projects
because the private sector investors complained that if the higher
figure of 20 percent was used as a discount rate, then the Bruno Ratio,
which measures the domestic cost of saving one unit of foreign exchange
and also serves as a criterion of profitability, would decrease to such
an extent that the project would become unprofitable.
The "New Beginning" in Pakistan's Family Planning
Programme
Authors: Robinson Warren C.
Published: August 2018

Family planning in Pakistan has a long, interesting, expensive
and generally unsuccessful history. Recently, after a pause of several
years, vigorous public-sector efforts to control population growth have
been resumed. This has been called "the new beginning" by Pakistan
officials. This note will relate the details and also the genesis of
this recent renewal of family-planning activity. The first "beginning"
was the programme launched in 1965 [4]. This programme grew rapidly and
attracted considerable attention internationally. By the mid-Seventies
it was clear that the programme's impact had been overrated and that it
was on the verge of stagnation. Under the strong urging of USAID, the
major donor group, a last desperate effort was made using a strongly
supply-oriented approach. This so-called "inundation scheme" also proved
a failure and by 1977 the programme had virtually come to a halt [5].
The Fifth Five Year Plan (1978- 1983) endorsed population control but
called for an integrated health- and family planning approach. A new
programme of training, mass education and improved service-delivery was
laid out in the Plan, but, in fact, little seems to have been
accomplished or even attempted in the' early part of this period. The
programme had been discredited and had been all but shut down. But the
need remained. Pakistan's fertility was shown by the World Fertility
Survey results for 1975-76 to be essentially unchanged in 20 years - a
total fertility rate of some 7 births per female over her reproductive
career, resulting in an annual growth rate of about 3.0
percent.
G. M. Farooq and G. B. Simmons (eels.). Fertility in Developing
Countries. London: The MacMillan Press (for the International Labour
Office). 1985. xXiii + 533 pp.
Authors: Coale Ansley
Published: August 2018

In 1972 the United Nations Fund for Population Activities
initiated support for a programme of research within the International
Labour Organization on population and employment. Determinants of
fertility have been a major theme in this research programme, as is
evident in an earlier Progress Report on the programme [3]. The book
here reviewed is an attempt to distil some general conclusions from this
research, and to present ideas and evidence not included in the 1982
publication. The first section of the book contains a summary of
theories of fertility determination; a brief description of the findings
of empirical research on fertility, and of the problems of empirical
research on the economics of fertility; some comments on the relevance
for policy of research on the economics of fertility; and some
suggestions for more fruitful research strategies. The second part deals
with selected methodological problems: the definition and measurement of
fertility; econometric problems of analysing cross-sectional and
time-series data; estimation and interpretation of aggregate data;
specification and estimation of models fertility; and the uses of
simulation techniques in studying the effects of economic policy on
fertility. As this list of topics indicates, the emphasis in this
section (and in most of the book) is on research on fertility by
economists. The last chapter in the second section, however, describes
anthropological approaches to the study of fertility. The final section
contains six case studies on Kenya, Nigeria, rural India, rural Turkey,
Yugoslavia, and a comparative study of Costa Rica and Mexico.
Intersectoral Terms of Trade for Pakistan's Economy: 1970-71 -
1981-82
Authors: Kazi Shahnaz
Published: August 2018

The paper estimates intersectoral terms of trade for the
period from 1970-71 to 1981-82. On the basis of these results the study
further analyses the relationship between terms of trade and aggregate
farm output over the period. The findings indicate some improvement in
agriculture's terms of trade over the Seventies. However, no conclusive
support is provided to the hypothesis of high supply responsiveness of
aggregate farm output to shifts in the relative price ratio of sectoral
output.
Unilateral International Transfers and their Effects on the
Welfare of the Recipient and Donor Countries
Authors: Burney Nadeem A.
Published: August 2018

This paper analyses impacts of unilateral income and capital
transfers on welfare and terms of trade of the recipient and donor
countries within a two-country framework. Introduction of the external
economies of scale, helps in explicitly incorporating the differences in
factor endowment between developed and developing economies in the
analysis. The paper discusses the conditions under which unilateral
capital transfer from a developed country may yield paradoxical result,
i.e. immiserize the developing country, despite market stability. The
analysis reinforces Brecher and Choudhri's analytical support to
Singer-Prebisch thesis from a new angle.
Trends and Differentials in Knowledge, Ever Use, Current Use, and
Future Intended Use of Contraceptives in Rural Bangladesh: Evidence from
Three Surveys
Authors: Amin Ruhul , Mariam A. G. , Faruqee Rashid
Published: August 2018

The study examines the trends and differentials in knowledge,
ever .use, current use, and future intended use of contraceptives in
rural Bangladesh. Using data from three national-level surveys between
1968 and 1977, the study finds that there had been an increase in
contraceptive knowledge, ever use, current use, and future intended use
over the years. Although estimated logit regression models indicated
that more educated women and women having higher parity were
significantly more likely to adopt or to intend to adopt contraceptives
in the future, other socio-economic indicators such as regional
development or non-agricultural occupations did not lead to higher
contraceptive use or future intended use of contraceptives. Somewhat
similar levels of differences in ever, current, and future intended use
of contraceptives among socio-economic groups persisted over the years.
Implications of these findings are discussed in the paper.
Per Pinstrup-Anderson, Alan Berg and Martin"Forman (eds.).
International Agricultural Research and Human Nutrition. Washington,
D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute, and Rome: UN
Administrative Committee on Coordination/ Sub-Committee on Nutrition.
1984. xvii+326 pp.Paperback edition.
Authors: Malik Sohail Jehangir
Published: August 2018

During the last few decades there has been a sharp transition
in economic doctrine, within the context of economic growth, on the
relative contributions of agriculture and industrial development. There
has been a shift away from the earlier 'industrial fundamentalism' to an
emphasis on the significance of growth in agricultural productivity and
production. The focus, especially in the context of the present-day less
developed countries like Pakistan, has sharpened with the rapid growth
in demand for food, resulting from the increasing growth in population
and the high income-elasticities of the demand for food. Coupled with
this is the transition from resource-based agriculture to science-based
agriculture. Agricultural economists are unanimous in the view that by
the end of this century all increases in world food production will come
from higher yields, i.e. increased output per hectare. This increasing
emphasis on 'land-saving' technology to increase productivity and
production has resuited from the growing population pressures on land
and declining land-man ratios. Agricultural research has come to the
fore in providing technologies that increase productivity and
production. However, these technologies do not explicitly take into
account the equity aspects of the problem. The extent to which the poor
gain or lose from the introduction of a new agricultural technology
depends on a host of complex and interrelated socio-economic and
political factors such as the existing distribution of productive
resources, access to modem inputs, the structure of the market,
etc.
Sharade Marathe. Regulation and Development: The Indian Policy
Experience of Controls Over Industry. New Delhi: Sage Publications India
Pvt. Ltd. 1986. 328 pp.Price: (Hardbound edition) Rupees (Indian)
195.00.
Authors: Sarmad Khwaja
Published: August 2018

This book documents in a comprehensive manner the 'twists and
turns' in India's industrial policy and strongly suggests the need for a
re-orientation of this policy to overcome the weaknesses in the
industrial structure and to utilize the sources of its strength. The
author has had a distinguished career in the Indian Economic Service and
brings this experience to bear on his analysis of the evolution of
industrial policy in India. In India, the primary objective of planned
development has been the creation of a technologically mature society
capable of sustaining a process of self-propelled growth without extreme
concentration of wealth in a few hands. It is rightly pointed out in the
book that this objective is possible only in the context of rapid
growth, which is the ultimate test of industrial policy. The book traces
the origins of India's industrial policy and analyses its evolution
during the past thirty years, showing how there has been an increasing
gap between the objectives of this policy and the performance of the
industrial sector.
Book Notes
Authors: Ibrahim Sahiba
Published: August 2018

Download the PDF file
Inaugural Address
Authors: Mian Muhammad Yasin Khan Wattoo
Published: August 2018

Prof. Syed Nawab Haider Naqvi, Dr M. Ghaffar Chaudhry, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen: It is a privilege for me to inaugurate the Fourth Annual General Meeting of the Pakistan Society of Development Economists. I am pleased to note that within only five years of its existence the Society has evolved into a prestigious forum for a free and precious exchange of ideas among economists and policy-makers. I am told that through these annual general meetings 74 papers on various topics have been prepared and published, and that, in its Lecture Series on Development Economics, eminent international economists and demographers have read papers on leading issues in economics and demography. The literature created under the aegis of the Society furnishes useful insights into the functioning of the economy and has contributed to the comprehension of the problems of almost all areas of Pakistan's economy - agriculture, industry, trade, resource mobilization, etc. I am happy to note that the Society has helped to promote a scientific and pragmatic approach in policy-formulation and economic decision-making, and has enabled us to think systematically about the nature of the challenges posed and faced by Pakistan's economic development and about the response to this challenge.
A Policy Model of the Wheat and Rice Economy of Pakistan
Authors: Cornelisse Peter A. , Kuijpers Bart
Published: August 2018

Consumption of wheat and rice in Pakistan grows vigorously.
The causes are well-known: (i) population growth, officially estimated
at about three percent per year, is very high and, (ii) at low levels of
income per head the income elasticities of wheat and rice consumption
are still positive~ Clearly, in order to achieve or maintain
self-sufficiency in wheat and rice, domestic production of these
products has to increase, at least at the same pace as consumption. When
viewing the production performance of recent years in this light there
is reason for satisfaction. Volumes of wheat imports, expressed as a
percentage of domestic production, have tended to fall over the past ten
to fifteen years, while rice exports have increased to, and then
stabilized around, a level of one million tons per year.
Agricultural Taxation in Pakistan Revisited
Authors: Mohammad Faiz
Published: August 2018

This paper is an attempt to throw further light on the
empirical dimensions of the issue of agricultural taxation. 1 It has two
objectives: First, using an alternative methodology it attempts to
measure the effective tax burden (as opposed to the nominal one) in the
agricultural sector (AS) relative to other sectors (NAS): and second, it
tries to examine (empirically) the implications of some of the tax
proposals made in the literature for various farm groups and, in
particular, for tenants. Some of the earlier estimates are either too
aggregate or too outdated to be of immediate relevance? Accordingly
Sections I and II take the above two points in turn, whereas Section III
presents the tentative conclusions of the paper.
Subsidizing Agricultural Production on Imperfect Markets
Authors: Marggraf Rainer , Zingel Wolfgang-Peter
Published: August 2018

Economic growth, and the distribution of wealth and income,
are two of the major, dimensions of economic policy in all countries. If
one follows the data published by the World Bank, one can see, that even
the relative income distribution in the developed and some of the
developing countries are very similar; it is only, that the level of
income is much lower in the latter countries, and therefore, that low
income is more visible and striking. Therefore, raising the level of
income of the very poor has been a major task of all governments. There
has been a very controversial discussion, however, as to how the incomes
of the poor can be raised easily, whether by economic growth,
redistribution of wealth, i.e. the means of production, or of income.
This discussion has been inconclusive so far, and the present paper sets
out to examine some of these aspects. Pakistan may serve as a perfect
example, considering the fact, that the country first suffered from an
overemphasis on economic growth and a neglect of distribution and then
tried distribution with no growth.
Food and Nutrition in Pakistan (A Cross-regional Study)
Authors: But Shaheen A. , Mahmood Tallat
Published: August 2018

Though the nutritional status of an individual is the outcome
of complex interaction of a host of environmental factors, income is the
mirror-image of a household's purchasing capacity. Another major factor
in determining nutritional status in developing countries is considered
to be the family size. Higher income levels are regarded as a
prerequisite for the improved nutritional status of household [Berg
(1973); Levinson and Morinda (1974); Seyoam, Kindaue and Gebru (1986)].
It is posited that, with improvement in a household's income, the
absolute expenditure on food is likely to go up as also the intake of
four essential nutrients.1 It has been observed in various studies that
food intake level in developing countries varies significantly across
income classes (Seyoam, Kindaue and Gebru (1986). A World Bank. study
underscored the fact that serious and intensive nutritional deficiencies
that exist in almost all developing countries are largely a reflection
of poverty (World Development Report 1980). A large family size may
adversely affect the nutritional status of every member of a household
because it may be associated with decreased per capita human impact i.e.
the allocation of food per member is likely to decrease with the
increase in the number of household members which, in turn, may have a
negative effect on per capita nutrient intake.
Effective Protection Rates - A Guide to Tariff Making
Authors: Kemal A. R.
Published: August 2018

Important restrictions, both tariff and non-tariff, have been
the main policy instrument in implementing the import substitution
industrial strategy which has been pursued by almost all the developing
countries. The strategy was visualised as a means of realising higher
growth of output and foreign exchange earnings, conservation of foreign
exchange and stability of the economy. Efficiency in resource use and
income distribution considerations did not assume much significance in
the development strategy. The industrial sector of Pakistan, protected
from imports through severe quantitative restrictions and even bans,
suffered from inefficiencies and rigidities. However, this was realized
only by the mid-Sixties when Soligo and Stern (1985), on the basis of
effective protection rates reached a very startling, though not entirely
correct, conclusion that in most of the industries in Pakistan, value
added at world market prices was negative! . The study aroused interest
in the examination of efficiency levels, both inside and outside
Pakistan, through the computation of effective protection rates. These
studies include among others, Balassa (1971); Little, Scitovsky and
Scott (1970) and the NBER series on the import regime in many countries.
Studies relating to effective protection in Pakistan include Soligo and
Stern (1985); Lewis and GUisinger (1968); Kemal (1978); Khan (1978) and
Naqvi, Kemal and Heston (1983).
The Impact of Foreign Capital Inflow on Savings and Investment:
The Case of Pakistan
Authors: Aslam Naheed
Published: August 2018

The paper examines the role of foreign capital in the context
of savings and investment for Pakistan for the period of 1963-64 -
1984-85. The question of the impact of foreign capital inflows on
domestic resources has assumed primary importance in view of the
increasing debt burden and declining concessionality of foreign loans.
The data analysis! , based on the classification of loans according to
rates of interest and terms to maturity, reveals that the terms and
conditions of foreign loans have become more stringent over time, i.e.
higher interest rates and lower maturity periods. The worsening terms
and conditions of external loans have resulted in increasing reverse
flow obligations. Debt servicing as a ratio of export earnings and
foreign capital inflow has rapidly increased over time. During 1960-61 -
1970-71, debt-servicing obligations could be met from 14.85 percent of
foreign assistance or 10.29 percent of our commodity export earnings,
whereas during 1980-81 - 1984-85 foreign debt servicing could be
financed from 29.63 percent of export earnings or 64.79 percent of
foreign assistance. The heavy debt-servicing burden and unfavorable
outlook for external finance has made it absolutely essential that
foreign capital funds should generate internally the capacity to repay
these loans. This could be facilitated if foreign capital inflows
augment domestic capital formation efforts.
Long-run Social and Economic Responses of Fertility in the United
States
Authors: Venieris Yiannis P. , Stewart Douglas B.
Published: August 2018

Based on the results of an econometric analysis, the paper
looks into the dynamic response of fertility behaviour in the United
States, to changes in some of its determinants. Specifically, the effect
of current and past marriage rates on fertility has been studied. In
doing so, the role of permanent income and the divorce rate on the
marriage rate, and through it, on fertility, has also been
examined.
Patterns and Determinants of Adoption of High Yielding Varieties:
Farm-level Evidence from Bangladesh
Authors: Alauddin Mohammad , Tlsdell Clem
Published: August 2018

Observations u5mg Bangladeshi survey data tend to support
Ahmed's (1981) and Asaduzuman's (1979) hypothesis postulating an inverse
relationship between farm size and intensity of adoption but not Jones'
(1984) U-shaped relationship. However, since farm size alone is an
inadequate predictor of HYV adoption, bivariate and multivariate
technique including discriminant analysis are used to identify
influences on HYV adoption of such variables as subsistence pressure,
tenancy, labour scarcity, education, availability of irrigation.
Irrigation emerges as the key determinant of HYV adoption.
Value Added per Worker, Capital Accumulation, and Technical
Progress
Authors: Teck Hoon Hian
Published: August 2018

Within the context of industrial restructuring, it is not
uncommon to use terms such as 'higher value-added per worker', or 'low
or high value added activities', and 'high technology' industries. The
present note attempt to use the theoretical work in the field of
international trade to sharpen our understanding of the relationships
among the concepts of value added per worker. capital accumulation, and
technical progress. We show that for a large country, capital
accumulation raises the real value added per worker in both industries.
With neutral technical progress occurring in the L-intensive industry,
it is possible for the terms of trade effect to lead to a decline in
Real labour productivity,
Estimates of Consumer Price Response in Pakistan using Market
Prices as Data
Authors: Alderman Harold
Published: August 2018

The main emphasis of the paper is to illustrate a methodology
that can be readily applied to future data analysis. The results
presented here indicate that plausible and detailed estimates of
consumer response to price changes can be obtained using household
expenditure survey sand published price series in a manner that does not
require the assumptions of additive preferences. It is noted that a
fixed-effects. approach which sweeps out spatial long-run price
differences can be employed as a replicated time series even over a
limited period of four quarters
Dynamics of Birth Spacing in Pakistan
Authors: Kiani M. Framurz Khan , Nazli Samina
Published: August 2018

In recent years the study of birth spacing has emerged as an
area of demographic interest. This is because of its close linkage with
the timing and tempo of fertility relative to other measures. At the
same time, marital fertility in Pakistan and the duration of
breastfeeding have shown a decline (Khan 1985). Thus, the study of birth
spacing becomes an important area for examining changes in the
components of fertility. The paper's major objectives are to study: (I)
Changes in spacing between births if any. (2) Differentials in birth
spacing by residence in major 'urban', 'other urban’ and 'rural' areas
to see if there is a gradation in birth spacing by levels of
urbanization. (3) And differentials in birth spacing by age at marriage,
urbanization, education, work pattern and contraceptive use.
Fertility Histories: With and Without Restrictions - An Analysis
of PLM Data
Authors: Khan Zubada
Published: August 2018

During the last decade, a large number of countries
participated in the World Fertility Survey but few of them collected
fertility histories that were not partially restricted. In a majority of
the cases information on the duration of breast-feeding and
contraceptive use was restricted to the last closed and the open
intervals only. These restrictions on the fertility histories have
raised many questions about the possibility of sample selection bias in
the results. A number of researchers in the developed countries have
used these surveys for analyzing the effects of breastfeeding and
contraception on the length of birth intervals. They have acknowledged
the possibility of a bias in the results and have taken measures to
minimize these potential biases. In this paper we will initially discuss
the ways in which biased histories produce a biased sample of births.
Later we wi11 evaluate the effects of the restrictions by using the
fertility data from the Population Labour Force and Migration (PLM)
Survey. This data contains detailed reproductive histories of 9416
currently married women having 38,746 children selected from 11 ,000
households sampled in the PLM survey.
Conditions of Agricultural Growth in Developing Countries
(Invited Lecture)
Authors: Schafer Hans-Bernd
Published: August 2018

Economic development is hardly possible without an increase in
agricultural production. This holds especially true for the development
of industry and other non-agricultural sectors. How else should a
rapidly increasing population outside the agricultural sector be
maintained with necessary agricultural goods? Though this is a simple
truth agricultural production, especially food production increase has
been far from satisfactory in many developing countries. Between 1974-76
and 1982-84 per capita food production in industrialized countries
increased at a much higher rate than in developing countries and in
almost 50 developing countries it has even declined during the same
period. 1 Many developing countries are now heavily dependent on food
imports to sustain their urban population, though they have comparative
advantages to produce agricultural products. How is this defect to be
explained? Technical reasons are not prevailing. Though only in Africa
and South America unused arable land is available to a large extent but
not in Asia, it would be possible to dramatically increase agricultural
production by introducing new seed varieties, chemical fertilizer and
irrigation. The main factors to hamper agricultural growth are
political, social and economic. T. H. Schultz wrote in 1978: "What is
needed are many Green Revolutions that would increase agricultural
production throughout low income countries. They could be had, but they
are presently suppressed by the lack of adequate incentives."2 In many
developing countries the farm sector is exploited by the urban sector
and a stream of agricultural surplus is channelled out of the farm
sector to feed the nonagricultural population. Very often the prices of
farm products are artificially held down.
Why Most Development Projects Fail in Pakistan? A Plausible
Explanation
Authors: Sahibzada Shamim A. , Mahmood Mir Annice
Published: August 2018

The need for effective .project planning in the farmework of
macro planning has always been very strong in Pakistan as projects form
the basis of development. Without the successful execution of projects,
it is unlikely that development plans could be implemented effectively.
In Pakistan an elaborate machinery for the planning of development
projects exists but its prformance has been far from satisfactory. If
one has to write the porject history of Pakistan, one wiII come across
numerous examples of projects that have failed due to the ineffecient
functioning of this machinery. Needless to say these failures have cost
the economy billions of rupees, which in a capital-scarce economy like
Pakistan, would have made a substantial difference towards economic
development had this machinery operated efficiently. The objective of
this paper is two fold: first to indentify shortcomings and weak links
in the project planning system which are responsible for the failure of
most projects. Failure here refers to the lack of implementation in time
and within the project's planned budget estimates. And second, to
suggest appropriate remedial policy measures. Experience has shown that
the process of project planning and implementation in the country has
suffered from inherent problems ranging from conceptual differences
about the projects, hurriedly prepared feasibility studies deficient in
proper technical and. economic underpinnings and the lack of basic
information obtained through insufficient investigation and surveys to
inadequate project monitoring and almost non-existent in-depth
evaluation studies.
The Effects of Migration and Remittances on Inequality in Rural
Pakistan
Authors: Jr. Richard H. Adams,
Published: August 2018

In the Third World remittances - defmed as money and goods
that are transmitted by migrant workers to their households back home -
can have a profound impact upon rural income distribution. This is true
for both internal remittances, which are often small but widespread
among the rural population, as well as for international remittances,
which are typically larger and more concentrated. Despite these
considerations, there is still no general consensus about the effect of
internal or international remittances on rural income distribution in
the Third World. On the one hand, Lipton (1980) argues that in India
internal remittances worsen rural inequality because they are earned
mainly by upper-income villagers. With respect to international
remittances, Gilani, Khan and Iqbal (1981) in Pakistan and Adams in
Egypt (1991, 1989) produce similar fmdings. On the other hand, some
empirical studies suggest a very different outcome. For example, Stark,
Taylor and Yitzhaki (1986) fmd that internal and international
remittances in Mexico have an egalitarian effect on rural income
distribution.1 Two major reasons appear to account for such lack of
consensus on the effect of remittances upon rural income distribution:
the use of local-level data collection techniques that preclude making
unambiguous empirical judgements about the effects of remittances; and
the reluctance or inability to use predicted income functions to
accurately estimate income before and after remittances.
Methods for Assessing the Impact of Temporary Labour
Emigration
Authors: Knerr Beatrice
Published: August 2018

Over the last three decades temporary emigration I of labour
force has gained considerable importance for the economic development of
many labour-rich and capital-short countries. As most of these countries
have little influence on the volume, timing, and structure of their
migrating labour· force, labour outflow, fluctuating remittances, and
remigration often result in external shocks on their vulnerable
economies. Given the strong influence which labour emigration bears on
key macro-economic aggregates and on the well-being of the population,
its integration into the overall development planning is a sine qua non
for sound economic strategies of the source countries. As a rule,
however, migration policy largely consists of trial and ~rror reactions
to already on-going developments. Over the last years, much empirical
research effort has been devoted to the impact of labour migration on
sending regions. Most of it is based on micro-level surveys, and on
descriptions of economic changes which have occurred over a migration
boom, without exact specification of causal relationships. The deduction
of macro-economic changes from observed household behaviour is difficult
and implies much speculation, yet. Therefore, maximizing the economic
benefits from labour migration for the source country requires the
application of quantitative methods based on macro models which can be
used for assessing its impact and for stimulating alternative policy
strategies considered for accompanying the process. The paper presents
four methods which seem appropriate for that purpose, namely partial
sectoral analysis by regression computations, cost-benefit analysis,
social accounting matrices, and computable general equilibrium models.
It considers their respective advantages for different ends, questions,
and policy goals, and explains their data requirements.
Combating Unemployment in Pakistan
Authors: Ghayur Sabur
Published: August 2018

The labour absorptive capacity of the economy is not keeping
pace with labour supplies. An almost stagnant annual demand, estimated
on the basis of the last few labour force surveys as ranging between
700,000 to 800,000 annually, is now being left far behind by a labour
force whose stock is being added by over a million annually.l This
phenomenon is building up pressure on the domestic labour market.2 This
situation, however, does not seem to be fully explained by the arguments
of: (i) a net-return flow in overseas migration, (ii) saturation in the
public sector employment, (iii) increasing capital intensity in the
organised manufacturing sector, especially in its large-scale units, and
(iv) worsening landman ratio in Pakistan's agriculture. Most of them, in
fact, are the outcome of the absence of sufficient and meaningful
considerations on employment and manpower development in the whole
process of development planning and setting sectoral priorities.
Otherwise emergence of this negative situation, to a large extent, could
have been avoided. Fortunately, the problem of under-utilisation of
manpower, though continuously on the rise, has not assumed such
proportions as could not be addressed by appropriate policy
interventions. But a further delay in evolving concrete remedial
measures, certainly, can lead to the point of no return. This then would
be counter-productive and disruptive socio-economically. The author, in
this paper, attempts to indicate the existence of possibilities of
generating gainful employment opportunities in some sectors/sub-sectors
and regions of the economy as well as for certain target
groups.
Alternate Scenarios for Population Control in Pakistan: The Issue
of Contraceptive Method Mix
Authors: Ahmed Tauseef , Ali Syed Mubashir
Published: August 2018

According to the Sixth and Seventh Five-Year Development Plans
the Population Programme was supposed to follow a multisectoral approach
to expand its coverage and provide women with alternatives to regulate
reproduction. It never emerged in a practical form. As a matter of fact,
Pakistan's population programme has always followed a supply-oriented
approach assuming that demand exists, but unfortunately the major
constraints which inhibited the programme was the poor supply of
contraceptives and the lack of consistency in the contraceptive mix. The
significance of the method mix lies in the potential impact on
population growth rate and the time taken to realise this impact. A
recent exercise by Choe (1991) estimates 'ideal' contraceptive mix based
on a number of factors, like past and intended fertility, estimated
pregnancy risk, and health status at various reproductive ages. The
exercise revealed that the observed method mix differed significantly
with the ideal mix. It is further argued that the adoption of the ideal
mix could bring an early transition in population growth. The current
analysis though does not estimate the 'ideal' mix but examines various
scenarios to bring down the rapidly growing population.
Cultural Perceptions and the Productive Roles of Rural Pakistani
Women
Authors: Ibraz Tassawar Saeed
Published: August 2018

In most societies, women have been defined largely in terms of
their maternal and caretaking roles and hence been stereotyped as
"domestics". Epstein (1986); Ortner (1974); Reiter (1975); Rosaldo and
Lamphere (1974); Rogers (1979) and Nelson (1974) argue that the roles
that females take have been viewed as relatively oflesser significance
in larger cultural pictures. Male as opposed to female activities have
always been recognised as being more important and cultural systems have
given authority to the roles of men and have portrayed them as being of
greater value. Anthropology, in the past, has also followed in the same
evaluations and greater attention has been given to the documentation of
male activities which constitute the "public" life of the culture and
are therefore more visible to the researchers. As a result the
"private/domestic" spheres where women are involved have been
downgraded. All this has led to impoverished ethnographic accounts, and
to a number of misconceptions regarding female values, contributions and
activities. Rogers (1979) states:
The Cultural Conception and Structural Perpetuation of Female
Subordination: An Examination of Gender Relations among the Populations
of the Chalt-Chaprote Community in the Nager Valley of Northern
Pakistan
Authors: Mumfaz Soofia , Fatima Anjum
Published: August 2018

This paper examines the subordination of women by men among
the populations of the Northern Areas of Pakistan. The examination is
undertaken with reference to the Chalt-Chaprote community in the Nagar
Valley, where fieldwork was conducted in 1989-90. Hence, we: (a) Analyse
the manner in which the subordination of women is manifested, and
reinforced during different socioeconomic activities; and (b) Determine
the effects, or lack of effect, on the status and role of women, of
changing conditions (as a consequence of increased incorporation of the
region in which the community is located, within the political
economy).
A World Accounting Framework: Trade and Financial Flows between
Developing Countdes and the Rest of the World
Authors: Lurnk Joke
Published: August 2018

The patterns of trade and fmancial flows between different
parts of the world economy have changed dramatically over the last two
decades. These changes have been accompanied by large increases in
discrepancies in macroeconomic statistics. Published data sources on
global macroeconomic aggregates may be highly misleading because of
their lack of consistency. A first necessary step towards the analysis
of changes in the patterns of international trade and finance is
therefore to develop a consistent global accounting framework in which
international finance can be placed in relationship to international
trade and domestic accumulation: this framework we call the World
Accounting Matrix (WAM). The W AM is based on the concept that related
variables - international trade, fmancial flows and stocks, and domestic
saving and investments - should be presented in one framework that
explicitly takes the relationships between the variables into account.
It is an integrated data system centred around accumulation balances. It
presents aggregates in matrix format, for groups of countries. The
purpose of the W AM is (i) to bring data from various data sources
together in one framework in order to make better use of existing
statistics, (ii) to check for consistency and to disentangle
discrepancies both within and between data sources and to make
adjustments for the discrepancies, (iii) to provide an analytical
framework for the analysis of the effects of different types of
international capital flows and external shocks on economic growth and
stability in developing countries and the role of international capital
flows in the process of global adjustment.
State Intervention versus Private Initiative: New Challenges for
the German Social Market Economy. Any Implications for Pakistan?
Authors: Zingel Wolfgang-Peter
Published: August 2018

There is a never ending discussion, whether economies of
different development levels and cultural and social backgrounds can be
compared or not. The protagonists of the modernisation theory - and of
many other development theories - believe, that development is a
uni-dimensional process, where the late-comers have to follow the same
path, which the more advanced already went. Their opponents believe that
each economy and each society have their distinct features and have to
fmd and follow their own development patterns. Germany was a late-comer
in industrialisation and suffered serious setbacks later. Its "miracle"
reconstruction after World War II has made it prosperous; its economic
order may help in mastering the unprecedented challenges set by the
Unification and integration of the former East German "Socialist":
command economy. Our economic order, however, is not as "free market"
oriented, as many believe. With the present shift to more market
orientation in the former Second and the Third World, it, therefore,
should be worthwhile, to have a closer look at the German "social market
economy". This especially applies to Pakistan, with its long tradition
of "mixed economy", "welfare state", "Islamic socialism" and "Islamic
welfare state".
Ricardian Equivalence: Some Macro-econometric Tests for
Pakistan
Authors: Kazmi Aqdas Ali
Published: August 2018

The Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis (REH) since resurrected
by Barro (1974) states that deficit fmancing and taxation produce the
same intertemporal allocation of consumption. To establish his theorem,
Barro has to make a number of restrictive assumptions such as: all
government revenue is collected by lump-sum taxation, debt is believed
to be eventually repaid, capital markets are perfect, there is no
uncertainty and agents are 'effectively' infinite-lived. To motivate the
last assumption, Barro shows that because of purely altruistic motives,
the agents derive utility from the welfare of their children and their
grandchildren and so on such that through the inter-generational
transfers, they act virtually like the infinitely lived. With the
publication of Barro's seminal paper, a flood of theoretical and
empirical literature on Ricardian Equivalence has emerged whiCh was
published mostly in the 1970s and 1980s. A complete review of the
literature is not possible. However, it must be pointed out that not a
single study to the author's knowledge, has appeared dealing with
developing countries. Kochin (1974); Aschauer (1985); Kormendi (1983);
Leiderman and Razin (1988) have produced empirical support for the
Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis using data on USA, Canada and other
developed countries. On the other hand, Buchanan (1986); Brennen (1987);
Modigliani, Jappali and Pagano (1985); Feldstein (1976); Feldstein and
Elmendorf (1987); Haque (1988); Buiter and Tobin (1980); Poterba and
Summers (1988) produce evidence which is generally inconsistent with the
basic logic of the Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis. The overall reviews
of the debate are presented in Bernheim (1987); Boskin, Flamming and
Gorini (1987); Bernheim (1989) and Leiderman and Blajer (1988), which
generally come to the conclusion contradicting the fmdings of the
Ricardian Equivalence Hypothesis. A comprehensive review of REH
literature is given in Kazmi (1991).
Causality Tests and the Relative Effectiveness of Monetary and
Fiscal Policies in Pakistan
Authors: Hussain Muhammad
Published: August 2018

The Granger and the Sims causality tests as applied to annual
data from Pakistan for the period 1971-72 to 1989-90, help us in
arriving at identical conclusions even though in the former test growth
rates of the relevant variables were used and in the latter natural
logged and filtered variables were used. Both tests detected
unidirectional causality running from monetary variables (monetary base
and money stock) to nominal GNP in Pakistan for the period under study.
Both tests also suggest that there is unidirectional causality running
from nominal GNP to the total government expenditure in Pakistan for the
period under study. The findings of the study suggest that changes in
monetary variables do exert their influence on economic activity,
represented by the nominal GNP, in Pakistan. The results of the study
also provide some evidence that changes in total government expenditure
rather than causing changes in the nominal GNP in Pakistan, are rather
influenced by the changes in the nominal GNP. Thus, the findings of the
study suggest that the monetary policy was relatively more effective
than the fiscal policy in influencing the nominal GNP in Pakistan,
during the period under study.
A Critical Review of Rural Credit Policy in Pakistan
Authors: Qureshi Sarfraz Khan , Shah Akhtiar H.
Published: August 2018

Lack of liquidity which acts as a constraint for agricultural
development has provided a rationale for rapid growth in formal
agricultural credit in Pakistan since the early 1960s. Between 1959-60
and 1991-92 institutional credit for the sector had registered an annual
growth rate of 31 percent in nominal terms and 20 percent in real terms.
The explosive increase in agricultural credit was accompanied by a
creation of new financial institutions, the strengthening of already
existing institutions and the adoption of credit policies to increase
the flow of credit for the sector in general and for small farmers in
particular. In this paper, an attempt is made to review farm credit
policy in Pakistan in relation to its impact on agricultural growth and
equity and to assess the strength of the credit institutions to keep
contributi~g effectively to the provision of credit in the rural
sector.