bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Prospecting Potential Groundwater Zones through Geotechnology and Statistics Techniques in the Grande River Basin, Bahia,Brazil
Authors: Soares Lima Thyago Anthony , Amorim Castro Paulo de Tarso
Published: March 2022

The source of the Grande river and its tributaries on the left bank are located in a tropical region adjacent to the humid valley of the Tocantins river, with rainfall that favors the continuity of the rivers. In the middle and east part of the basin, the predominance is of the semi-arid climate, as well as typical of the middle São Francisco basin, with irregular rainfall that does not contribute to the supply of the rivers. It is noteworthy that most of the tributaries of the hydrographic basin are intermittent. The Grande river basin is part of two important hydrogeological systems, the Group Bambuí system and the Urucuia system (SAU), which is the most important system in the western region of Bahia, as well as one of the most important in the São Francisco river basin, as well as the entire brazilian Northeast region, in addition to being one of the most relevant in the country, since it is a strategic source of water. Such hydrogeological systems are directly responsible for supplying the hydrographic basin in its dry periods. The Brazilian semi-arid region, with its limited water resources, is currently classified as a critical dry and water-poor area. This study aims to identify potential areas of groundwater in the aforementioned hydrographic basin, located in the middle eastern portion of the São Francisco river basin, in the State of Bahia. Integrating geological and hydrogeological analyses, remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS) and multicriteria statistical evaluation (AHP) techniques. It is intended to create thematic layers in a GIS where values will be assigned using appropriate weights and classifications in relation to their relative contribution to the occurrence of groundwater through multicriteria assessment techniques. These layers include lithology, geomorphology, lineament density, drainage density, soil texture, precipitation, and slope. The final groundwater potential map is composed of five classes of groundwater potential: very high, high, moderate, low and very low. The validity of the results of this GIS-based model was performed by superimposing existing wells, analyzing the statistical probability of the existence of groundwater. The single parameter sensitivity test was performed to evaluate the influence of the signaled weights on the groundwater potential model, and new effective weights will be derived after the analysis, as a way to calibrate the model, and the ROC analysis was applied to validate the model

Keywords :Groundwater, Grande River Basin, AHP, Prospecting, Statistical probability, GIS

 
Fault reactivation in crystalline rock as consequence of glaciation
Authors: Kern Dominik , Silbermann Christian B. , Magri Fabien , Steffen Rebekka , Steffen Holger , Malkovsky Victor , Nagel Thomas
Published: March 2022

One of the most important aspects for Deep Geological Repositories (DGRs) in crystalline rock is the presence and evolution of fractures and faults, since they dominate the subsurface flow regime and thus the possible transport of contaminants. In the considered period of one million years, it is expected that cold and warm period alternate, accompanied by ice sheet progression and regression. The large moving mass of an ice sheet causes a dynamic response of the earth's crust, referred to as glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA). GIA changes the displacement and stress field not only under and near the ice sheet but also in its far-field. In view of the long-term safety assessments for DGRs, we analyze GIA-induced far-field stress and pore pressure changes and their impacts on existing faults.

For that purpose, we use Finite-Element methods (FEM) to simulate the hydromechanical processes around an exemplaric DGR of the Yeniseiskiy Site, Russia, applying boundary conditions derived from established GIA models [1,2]. As result, we obtain the Coulomb failure stress for varying instances of assumed faults.

The INFRA project is funded by the DFG-RFBR program:
DFG funds: NA1528/2-1 and MA4450/5-1
RFBR funds: 20-55-12009, АААА-А20-120012190168-5

References

[1] Patrick Wu. “Using commercial finite element packages for the study of earth deformations, sea levels and the state of stress”. In: Geophysical Journal International 158.2 (2004), pp. 401–408.

[2] G. Spada et al. “A benchmark study for glacial isostatic adjustment codes”. In: Geophysical Journal International 185.1 (2011), pp. 106–132.
Review on the processing and application of historical aerial and satellite spy images in geosciences
Authors: Ressl Camillo , Dehecq Amaury , Dewez Thomas , Elias Melanie , Eltner Anette , Girod Luc , McNabb Robert , Piermattei Livia
Published: March 2022

Historical aerial photographs captured since the early 1900s and spy satellite photographs from the 1960s onwards have long been used for military, civil, and research purposes in natural sciences. These historical photographs have the unequalled potential for documenting and quantifying past environmental changes caused by anthropogenic and natural factors.

The increasing availability of historical photographs as digitized/scanned images, together with the advances in digital photogrammetry, have heightened the interest in these data in the scientific community for reconstructing long-term surface evolution from local to regional scale.

However, despite the available volume of historical images, their full potential is not yet widely exploited. Currently, there is a lack of knowledge of the types of information that can be derived, their availability over the globe, and their applications in geoscience. There are no standardized photogrammetric workflows to automatically generate 3D (three-dimensional) products, in the form of point clouds and digital elevation models from stereo images (i.e. images capturing the same scenery from at least two positions), as well as 2D products like orthophotos. Furthermore, influences on the quality and the accuracy of the products are not fully understood as they vary according to the image quality (e.g. photograph damage or scanning properties), the availability of calibration information (e.g. focal length or fiducial marks), and data acquisition (e.g. flying height or image overlap).

We reviewed many articles published in peer reviewed journals from 2010 to 2021 that explore the potential of historical images, covering both photogrammetric reconstruction techniques (methodological papers) and the interpretation of 2D and 3D changes in the past (application papers) in different geoscience disciplines such as geomorphology, cryosphere, volcanology, bio-geosciences, geology and archaeology. We present an overview of these published studies and a summary of available image archives. In addition, we compare the main methods used to process historical aerial and satellite images, highlighting new approaches. Finally, we provide our advice on image processing and accuracy assessment.
Accelerating large scale groundwater simulation with machine learning: modeling approaches and science implications for changing systems
Authors: Condon Laura , Bennett Andrew , Tran Hoang , Horowitz Ben , Leonarduzzi Elena , Melchior Peter , Maxwell Reed
Published: March 2022

It is well established that groundwater is an important buffer to hydrologic systems; stabilizing water supplies across spatial scales and long time frames. However, groundwater surface water interactions are non-linear and can vary greatly based on climate and hydrogeologic setting.  This challenge is exacerbated in changing systems where shifting land cover, extreme droughts and floods can significantly change groundwater storage, discharge and recharge dynamics. Observations of groundwater levels and the hydrogeologic properties that govern flow are sparse both in space and time.  As a result, we rely heavily on physically based numerical models to help us understand this critical component of the hydrologic cycle. There are an increasing number of national to global scale groundwater models that take a variety of numerical approaches and simplify the system to varying degrees.  One of the challenges we face is that the integrated models best suited to capture changing dynamics, are also by far the most computationally expensive. This creates a trade-off between the physical complexity we can represent and the size of the ensembles we can explore (another critical dimension in highly uncertain systems). 

            Here we will explore the potential for machine learning emulators to help accelerate solutions while maintaining physically rigorous solutions in changing systems. First, we present progress in the development of the next generation high resolution (1km2) ParFlow model of the contiguous US (ParFlow-CONUS).  Next, we explore a range of machine learning architectures that have been developed to emulate the national model. Here we focus on solutions that can emulate the full 3D subsurface system as this allows for the most flexibility in hydrologic applications.  Specifically, we explore 3D convolutional neural networks, recursive neural networks and LSTM approaches.  For every approach we evaluate the fidelity with which the machine learning model can emulate the physics-based model. We focus specifically on performance for extreme hydrologic conditions both when the ML emulator is provided training data on these cases and when the ML model is applied to out of sample scenarios.  One of the key strengths of physically based hydrologic models is their ability to represent scenarios that we haven’t seen in the past. This can be a large challenge for purely data driven ML approaches which can provide erroneous results on conditions that fall outside historical behavior.  
Discovery of sheath folds in the Adula nappe and implications for the tectonic evolution (Central Alps)
Authors: Perozzo Michele , Maino Matteo , Schenker Filippo , Seno Silvio
Published: March 2022

Orogenic deformation patterns show intricate overprinting and structural relations, variations of style and orientation of folds and sense of shear, which are traditionally interpreted as due to polyphase deformation, i.e. distinct deformation phases separated by periods of tectonic quiescence. The Adula nappe in the Central Alps displays exceptional exposures of complex internal structures involving heterogeneous rocks (meta-pelitic and meta-granitic gneiss, micaschists, amphibolites, eclogites, minor quartzites and limestones). The Adula structures are distinguished through the style and the orientation of folds, schistosity and the observation of refolded folds. Structural features show a great variability within the unit, making the structures along the nappe difficult to correlate. However, the Adula deformation patterns are classically interpreted as generated by multiple, distinct deformation phases (five deformation phases; D1-5), despite only one schistosity and lineation may be clearly recognized in the field. Kinematic indicators indicate dominant top-to-N sense of shear, although local top-to-S shear is interpreted as developed during the D3 backfolding phase (e.g.  Löw 1987; Nagel 2008). In this contribution, we show a first recognition of sheath folds from the central part of the Adula nappe, the largest high-pressure nappe of the Central Alps. We performed detailed geological mapping (scale 1:10’000) and structural characterization of the spectacular outcrops of the Piz de Cressim glacial cirque. Here a large antiform is described as the main structure associated with the D3 backfolding phase. We show that the meso/leucocratic heterogeneous rocks (orthogneisses, micaschists, migmatitic gneisses, amphibolitic lenses) form highly non-cylindrical folds. Sheath folds are highlighted by several centimetre to meters scale omega and elliptical eye-structures in cross sections perpendicular to the shear direction (y-z plane). All lithological units show one penetrative foliation and a related stretching lineation with variations in orientation. We suggest that the Cressim antiform formed during progressive top-to-N deformation accomplished within rheological heterogeneous rocks, rather than as the results of multiple distinct deformation phases.
What does steady state mean for debris-covered glaciers?
Authors: Mayer Christoph , Licciulli Carlo
Published: March 2022

Debris-covered glaciers accumulate supra-glacial debris on the glacier surface in the ablation zone. As long as this debris layer is not at least partly removed, it can be expected that glaciers continue to grow in length, because the thickening debris layer continuously reduces surface melt rates. Removal of the debris layer, on the other hand, is a complicated process, which depends on a number of parameters, like surface slope, debris thickness, grain size distribution and water content to name just a few. However, the way how supra-glacial debris is removed might strongly influence the dynamic reaction of the glacier itself.

A realistic study of these interactions can only be performed, if the ice flow and the debris-influenced melt is treated with a high degree of detail. In our study, we coupled a 2-D full Stokes ice dynamic and surface debris transport model with a sophisticated description of energy transfer through the debris layer. This approach ensures that ice flow and surface melt rates are simulated at high detail, including the enhanced melt rates for very thin debris cover just below the equilibrium line. We restricted our experiments to rather simple initial conditions, in order investigate the fundamental feedback mechanisms between melt rates and glacier dynamics. Therefore, we introduced rather simple, but realistic formulations of debris unloading at the glacier front. The coupled experiments show that steady-state conditions are highly unlikely for glaciers with the debris layer remaining on the glacier. However, a balance of the debris budget and the glacier mass flux is possible, when introducing debris removal from the glacier tongue. We focussed on an as realistic as possible representation of the snout geometry, in order to allow a physically sensible debris discharge. The results show that for some removal processes debris-covered glaciers have an inherent tendency to enter an oscillating state, where glacier mass balance and debris balance are out of phase. In specific experiments glacier advance periods end with the separation of the heavily debris-loaded lowermost glacier tongue, at time scales of decades to centuries, followed by an advance of the remaining clean glacier. In such cases we assume that long-term “mean-steady-state” conditions modulated by oscillations in glacier length exist and are independent from climatic variations. This makes it difficult to interpret short-term geometry observations of debris-covered glaciers in the context of climate impact.
Using LANDO as a universal wrapper for applying multiple age-depth modeling systems for sediment records from Arctic lake systems
Authors: Pfalz Gregor , Diekmann Bernhard , Freytag Johann-Christoph , Syrykh Liudmila , Subetto Dmitry A. , Biskaborn Boris K.
Published: March 2022

Refined dating techniques and high-precision radiocarbon dating have enabled more accurate age controls for paleoenvironmental reconstruction of lake systems. However, low bioproductivity and the influence of old carbon have a profound impact on radiocarbon dating series of non-varved sediment records from Arctic lakes. Geochronological tools such as software systems for age-depth modeling provide sophisticated justifications for age-depth relationships. But because there are many different tools available with varying underlying mathematical methods and models, the model output can show diverging results, e.g., for problematic sediment cores with scatter age dating points. A detailed comparison of the results of individual modeling system is therefore often tedious and potentially error-prone. Due to time constraints and a lack of alternative options, users typically only select and apply one modeling system to provide a geochronological timeframe for paleoenvironmental interpretation. Therefore, we introduce our “Linked age and depth modeling” (LANDO) approach that links five modeling systems (Bacon, Bchron, clam, hamstr, Undatable) in a single multi-language Jupyter Notebook. LANDO reduces the effort of using established modeling systems for both single and multiple dating series and makes the results directly comparable. In addition, we introduce an ensemble age-depth model that uses the output from all models to create a data-driven, semi-informed age-depth relationship. In our talk we will highlight our adapted fuzzy change point method, in which we used independent proxy data to evaluate the performance of each modeling system in representing lithological changes. LANDO is already publicly available on GitHub: https://github.com/GPawi/LANDO.
Incorporating Equality, Diversity and Inclusion (EDI) into field-based teaching and research fieldwork
Authors: Rowan Ann V. , Olund Eric , Pickerill Jenny , Souch Catherine
Published: March 2022

Fieldwork is an important part of teaching in Geography and the Geosciences that can add value to a student’s career progression. Making field classes and research fieldwork as accessible as possible requires taking an enabling approach to their planning, from the location of the field site to details of the daily schedule. Such an approach can promote the progression of a diverse cohort of students and allow the leadership of field classes to be distributed equitably amongst teaching staff. An open dialogue between all participants is important to develop fieldwork that embodies the principles of Equality, Diversity, and Inclusion (EDI). As well as at the planning stage, maintaining such dialogue during the fieldwork enables students and teaching staff to raise concerns and ask for support as needed. However, this approach can be difficult to implement without a wider understanding of the diverse needs of students and researchers and how these affect their ability to participate in fieldwork.

The Department of Geography at the University of Sheffield recently developed an EDI policy for taught field classes to help teaching staff plan accessible field classes in partnership with our students. This talk will introduce key ideas and resources that can be used in planning both taught field classes and fieldwork for postgraduate research projects to enable students to be safe, secure, and productive in the field.
A quasi-real time geomagnetic activity index from ground based measurements at geomagnetic observatories run by italian INGV for space weather nowcasting
Authors: Bagiacchi Paolo , Cafarella Lili , Del Corpo Alfredo , Di Mauro Domenico , Lepidi Stefania , Regi Mauro
Published: March 2022

The geomagnetic observatories managed by INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia), both in Italy and Antarctica, send data to a server and the data are collected and stored in a MySQL database. The database has been operating for almost two decades and it is implemented on a local server which serves also as a web portal for the data display and distribution. By analyzing the data of all the INGV geomagnetic observatories at middle and polar latitudes, i.e. the values of the H, D and Z components, the F module and the K indices, the algorithm aims to distinguish the activity of the Earth's magnetic field in the following categories: “Quiet Period”, “Local disturbance” and “Magnetic Activity”, possibly distinguishing, within the latter, the level and the kind of event (sudden impulse, sudden ionospheric and magnetic disturbance driven by solar flare, magnetic storm or substorm). A preliminary automatic procedure allows to detect possible instrumental failure from a comparison between the vector components and the total field intensity in each observatory. A second level of check allows to discriminate local or regional against global features with the final goal to reject local noise, possibly of anthropic nature, eventually present in a single observatory through a majority logic based procedure. After these first filtering steps an automatic software procedure provides an empirical estimation of the current  Magnetic Activity (nowcasting) organized according to the above three possible categories. The embedded algorithm in the procedure operates on the geomagnetic field element (H, D, Z and F) and the local K indices of all observatories. The operations that the algorithm performs are aimed to identify the impulsive components in the signal, which are caused by external events. The quiet field component is removed from the signal, leaving the impulsive components present in the signal almost unaltered. If in the residual field is present a significant activity (with respect to an appropriate threshold) a procedure is performed that distinguishes between an isolated impulse or a cluster of impulses, by using time windows of different sizes. The whole procedure allows us to generate two different geomagnetic activity indices, one at low and the other at high latitude. In a final step we compute a cross correlated geomagnetic index comparing processed data at low and high latitude to retrieve a large spatial scale index.
Is West-Antarctica’s Tipping Point a Fixed Value?
Authors: Swierczek-Jereczek Jan , Montoya Marisa , Robinson Alexander , Alvarez-Solas Jorge , Blasco Javier
Published: March 2022

Given large regions of ice grounded below sea level associated with a retrograde bedrock, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is believed to be a tipping element whose tipping point could be reached within this century under high emission scenarios. As the WAIS represents the largest and most uncertain source of future sea-level rise, characterising its stability is crucial for defining safe emission pathways and protecting livelihoods in coastal regions. In the present work, we investigate its potential to undergo an abrupt change due to a fold bifurcation. To this end, we use a high-order ice sheet model with 16km spatial resolution. Rather than applying a fixed forcing rate as in previous studies, we apply a forcing scheme that adaptively increases the local temperature while keeping the system near equilibrium, which allows us to obtain a rigorous value for the bifurcation tipping point. More importantly, we show how this threshold can become relevant for much lower warming levels than expected - even within the bounds of relatively conservative emission scenarios. Subsequently, we explain the underlying mechanisms leading the marine ice-sheet instability to possibly arise earlier than suggested by the bifurcation study. We finally question whether the tipping point of the WAIS can be understood as a fixed temperature value and if not, by which information it should be extended to provide an early warning signal.
Bedload transport from a glacially-fed river in Greenland
Authors: Delaney Ian , Mancini Davide , Anderson Leif S. , Belloti Bruno , Bauder Andreas , Lane Stuart N. , Herman Frédéric
Published: March 2022

As the climate warms, increases in glacier melt and altered glacier dynamics will result in changes to the dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet, impacting the sediment delivery in these rivers. In turn, examining the processes by which proglacial rivers transport sediment delivered by the ice sheet has important implications for the delivery of sediment to the oceans. Applying current knowledge of sediment transport from glacially-fed catchments in alpine regions is difficult, given several pronounced differences compared to glacially-fed catchments in the Arctic. These differences include elevated water discharge and reduced amplitude in diurnal variations of water discharge. Thus, it is imperative that we understand the differences in sediment dynamics between these two regions and evaluate the processes responsible for sediment transport between the ice sheet and ocean. To pursue this understanding, we installed seismic stations to measure bedload transport near the terminus of Russell Glacier during the summer of 2021.

 

We convert the seismic signal from these stations to a bedload transport rate by evaluating several environmental variables, including the transported grain size and ground properties near the river. One station was close to the glacier, whilst the other is 1.5 km downstream. The distance between the stations allows us to evaluate the timing of proglacial sediment transport and deposition. Additionally, the operation of the instruments from early June through mid-August allows us to evaluate seasonal characteristics in sediment discharge. Lastly, we compare these results to the current knowledge of sediment transport from glacierized catchments in mountain regions.
Application of time series analysis to explore the feasibility of reducing extraction rates to mitigate groundwater declines during summer droughts: a case study in the Netherlands
Authors: Brakenhoff Davíd , Vonk Martin , Collenteur Raoul , Bakker Mark
Published: March 2022

In recent years, meteorological droughts over Northwestern Europe caused severe declines in groundwater levels with significant damage to groundwater-dependent ecosystems and agriculture. One possible solution to reduce the declines in groundwater levels is to temporarily lower the extraction rates of nearby well fields used for drinking water production. The effectiveness of such measures depends on the magnitude and time of the response of the groundwater system to changes in groundwater extraction, which is salient information for decision makers. The response of the groundwater system is commonly quantified using numerical groundwater models that are time-consuming to develop and can be difficult to calibrate. In this research, a quick data-driven approach is proposed, based on time series analysis, that serves as a complement to more traditional groundwater modeling approaches. 

A scripted workflow was developed using Pastas, an open-source Python module for Transfer Function Noise modeling. The approach was applied to 243 monitoring wells in an area of the Netherlands, a country where summer droughts can cause serious problems, even though the country is better known for problems with too much water. For each monitoring well, the best model structure and relevant hydrological forcings (rainfall, evaporation, river stages, and extraction rates of well fields) were selected iteratively. Model selection was performed through split-sample testing and diagnostic checking. The accepted model for each monitoring well represents an independent estimate of the contribution of different hydrological forcings and processes to the groundwater response and is based exclusively on observed data. The modeled responses to the pumping rates of the well fields were used to determine the feasibility of reducing extraction rates to control heads during droughts.
Quantifying solute transport numerical dispersion in integrated surface-subsurface hydrological modeling
Authors: Gatto Beatrice , Paniconi Claudio , Salandin Paolo , Camporese Matteo
Published: March 2022

Numerical dispersion is a well-known problem that affects solute transport in groundwater simulations and can lead to wrong results, in terms of plume path overestimation and overprediction of contaminant dispersion. Numerical dispersion is generally introduced through stabilization techniques aimed at preventing oscillations, with the side effect of increasing mass spreading. Even though this issue has long been investigated in subsurface hydrology, little is known about its possible impacts on integrated surface–subsurface hydrological models (ISSHMs). In this study, we analyze numerical dispersion in the CATchment HYdrology (CATHY) model. In CATHY, a robust and computationally efficient time-splitting technique is implemented for the solution of the subsurface transport equation, whereby the advective part is solved on elements with an explicit finite volume scheme and the dispersive part is solved on nodes with an implicit finite element scheme. Taken alone, the advection and dispersion solvers provide accurate results. However, when coupled, the continuous transfer of concentration from elements to nodes, and vice versa, gives rise to a particular form of numerical dispersion. We assess the nature and impact of this artificial spreading through two sets of synthetic experiments. In the first set, the subsurface transport of a nonreactive tracer in two soil column test cases is simulated and compared with known analytical solutions. Different input dispersion coefficients and mesh discretizations are tested, in order to quantify the numerical error and define a criterion for its containment. In the second set of experiments, fully coupled surface–subsurface processes are simulated using two idealized hillslopes, one concave and one convex, and we examine how the additional subsurface dispersion affects the representation of pre-event water contribution to the streamflow hydrograph. Overall, we show that the numerical dispersion in CATHY that is caused by the transfer of information between elements and nodes can be kept under control if the grid Péclet number is less than 1. It is also suggested that the test cases used in this study can be useful benchmarks for integrated surface–subsurface hydrological models, for which thus far only flow benchmarks have been proposed.
Uncertainties in local and regional mass movement prediction using rainfall
Authors: McArdell Brian , Hirschberg Jacob , Badoux Alexandre , Leonarduzzi Elena , Molnar Peter
Published: March 2022

The prediction of debris flows is relevant because this type of natural hazard can pose a threat to humans and infrastructure. Debris-flow (and landslide) early warning systems often rely on rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds. Multiple competing methods exist for the determination of such ID thresholds but have not been objectively and thoroughly compared at multiple scales, and a validation and uncertainty assessment is often missing in their formulation. As a consequence, updating, interpreting, generalizing and comparing rainfall thresholds is challenging. Here, we present the findings of Hirschberg et al. (2021), which focused on (i) uncertainties related to ID thresholds, (ii) differences in local compared to regional ID thresholds, and (iii) how prediction can potentially be improved using statistical learning algorithms. The findings are of interest for debris-flow (and landslide) early-warning developers.

We use a 17-year record of rainfall and 67 debris flows in a Swiss Alpine catchment (Illgraben) to determine ID thresholds and associated uncertainties as a function of record du- ration. This included comparing two methods for rainfall threshold definition based on linear regression and/or true-skill-statistic maximization. The main difference between these approaches and the well-known frequentist method is that non-triggering rainfall events were additionally considered for obtaining ID-threshold parameters. Depending on the method applied, the ID-threshold parameters and their uncertainties differed significantly. We found that 25 debris flows are sufficient to constrain uncertainties in ID-threshold parameters to ±30% for our study site. We further demonstrated the change in predictive performance of the two methods if a regional landslide data set with a regional rainfall product was used instead of a local one with local rainfall measurements. Hence, an important finding is that the ideal method for ID- threshold determination depends on the available landslide and rainfall data sets. Furthermore, for the local data set we tested if the ID-threshold performance can be increased by considering other rainfall properties (e.g. antecedent rainfall, maximum intensity) in a multivariate statistical learning algorithm based on decision trees (random forest). The highest predictive power was reached when the peak 30 min rainfall intensity was added to the ID variables, while no improvement was achieved by considering antecedent rainfall for debris-flow predictions in Illgraben. Although the increase in predictive performance with the random forest model over the classical ID threshold was small, such a framework could be valuable for future studies if more predictors are available from measured or modelled data.
Near-term Projection of the Indian Summer Monsoon Circulation Using CESM 1.5C, 2.0C, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 Scenarios
Authors: Choudhury Devanil , Nath Debashis , Chen Wen
Published: March 2022

The NCAR CESM low-warming simulations (1.50C, 2.00C), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios are used to assess the near term (2021–2050) changes of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) variability. It is demonstrated that with the increase in warming and radiative forcing likely to cause an enhanced monsoon precipitation over east Asia. In 1.50C forced climate, a weak ISM circulation is projected, while for 2.00C warming monsoon circulation is likely to strengthen over the north Indian Ocean and intense easterlies from the equatorial Pacific are projected. Projection from the RCP4.5 scenario is associated with strong southwesterly monsoon wind over the entire Indian Ocean to the South China Sea and an intense easterly wind from the North Pacific to east Asia. The monsoon circulation over the north Indian Ocean is likely to weaken in the RCP8.5 forced climate. In all the scenarios, SLP variability over the far North Pacific is likely to play a dominant role as an internal variability to be able to influence the ISM circulation. It is found that an increasing standard deviation of internal Variability in SLP over the far North Pacific with increasing warming. Therefore, the importance of internal climate variability in SLP over the far North Pacific is clearly seen to influence the ISM projection pattern in the warming climate. Although model systematic biases in simulation still cause great concern for climate modelers, it is recognized that climate projections are inherently uncertain because a model can never fully describe the system that it attempts to specify. It is anticipated that this analysis based on the CESM ensemble will inspire probabilistic thinking and inform planning for the summer monsoon community and related stakeholders.
Knowledge and Practice of Valuation Methods by Real Estate Practitioners
Authors: Armones Carlos L. , Caelian Merlita V. , Jubelag Jr. VIII Francisco G.
Published: March 2022

Property valuation services provided by real estate practitioners significantly impact global economies because property valuation methods affect the accuracy of the estimates of the market value of real properties. The paper assessed the level of knowledge and extent of practice of real estate practitioners on the valuation methods. Likewise, the study investigated the challenges encountered by respondents in their practice. This descriptive-comparative and correlational study utilized a test questionnaire to measure the level of knowledge and a researcher-made survey instrument to measure the extent of practice on the 98 licensed real estate practitioners. With descriptive and inferential analyses, the findings ascertained respondents' average level of knowledge on both methods of valuation. While for the extent of practice of valuation methods, findings revealed great extent for traditional method while moderate for advanced method. Consequently, significant differences were found when the length of practice of the profession, designation, and educational attainment were used as variables. Results disclosed an inverse relationship between knowledge and practice. The major challenge encountered by real estate practitioners is the influence of property owners in fixing the value of real properties, which hinders a fair, accurate, and ethical valuation.
On Determinants of Cooperatives’ Perceived Effectiveness in Terms of Financial and Social Performance
Authors: Paradero Angelita L. , Te Danilo M. , Casinillo Leomarich F.
Published: March 2022

Cooperatives are vital in the economy, hence, it is practically important to examine the factors that may influence their performance. This study focused on determining the factors that predict cooperatives' perceived effectiveness in terms of financial and social performance in Eastern Visayas, Philippines. A random sampling technique was employed to gather primary data to 438 respondents composed of the board of directors, managers, officers, and members. For data analysis, Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) was utilized to analyze the Likert scale data based on the survey participants' responses. Results showed that cooperatives' governance, members' participation, and training and development significantly predicted cooperatives' perceived effectiveness in terms of financial and social performance. Hence, management of the cooperatives should develop a culture of effective governance that includes transparency, management accountability, and members' democratic participation; encourage members' economic participation and; conduct periodic training to help the cooperatives attain their social and financial goals.
Pendidikan Behavioristik dan Aktualisasinya
Authors: Muktar Muhtafi
Published: March 2022

Sebagaimana kita ketahui bersama bahwa persoalan dalam dunia pendidikan tidak kunjung usai. Hingga akhirnya berbagai teori belajar muncul sebagai salah satu tawaran pemecahan problematika dalam kegiatan pembelajaran. Diantara berbagai teori yang banyak memberikan kontribusi adalah teori belajar Behavioristik. Terdapat beberapa tokoh yang memiliki andil dalam perkembangan teori ini, diantaranya: Ivan Pavlov dengan teori Clasical Conditioning, Edward Lee Thorndike dengan teori Koneksionisme, Burrhus Frederic Skinner dengan teori Operant Conditioning, John Broadus Watson dengan teori Conditioning, Edwin Ray Guthrie dengan teori Contiguous Conditioning Theory, dan Carl Leonard Hull dengan teori Drive Reduction Theory.
Teaching Statistics with an Inquiry-Based Learning Approach
Authors: Lee Jae Ki , Ban Sun Young
Published: March 2022

Two case studies were conducted to examine whether inquiry-based learning (IBL) can help students in understanding normal distributions, and to determine if IBL methods have any effect on students' conceptual and computational capabilities. There were 16 students in the traditional class and 17 students in the IBL-implemented class who participated in each of two case studies. The experimental group performed significantly better than the control group in terms of conceptual understanding and computational skills. These outcomes suggest that IBL methods such as discussions, asking questions, and guided lectures helped students to develop statistical reasoning.
Study of the Melanoidins Structure in Various Color Characteristics Beer Samples
Authors: Грибкова Ирина Николаевна
Published: March 2022

Статья посвящена вопросам изучения структуры меланоидинов - соединений, обеспечивающих цветообразование пива. Поставленная цель исследования - изучение цветовых характеристик меланоидинов, их состава и вклада в интенсивность окраски пива - обоснована субъективным представлением о методах измерения цвета. Реализацию поставленной цели осуществляли с помощью методов анализа, принятых в отрасли. Авторами сняты спектральные характеристики экстрактов меланодиинов с максимумами при 340 нм для двух образцов светлого пива, 340-350 нм для одного образца темного пива и 340-400 нм - для другого образца темного пива. Приведенные результаты исследования состава экстрактов меланоидинов из образцов пива, полученного из разных типов зернового сырья, показывают различия в характере светопоглощения. Полученные авторами соотношения углеводной и азотосодержащей составляющей меланоидинов пива не показали корреляции с содержанием экстрактивности начального сусла, цветом пива и общим содержанием меланоидинов в пиве. Соотношения редуцирующих и азотистых соединений в экстрактах меланоидинов были сгруппированы относительно цвета исходного пива. Показано, что в светлых сортах пива соотношение редуцирующих и азотистых соединений составляет 1:13-1:22 и коррелирует с типом применяемого более окрашенного солода, а в темных сортах пива - 1:10-1:19.

The article is devoted to the study of the melanoidin structure - compounds that provide the color formation of beer. The stated goal is to study the color characteristics of melanoidins, their composition and contribution to the intensity of the color of beer - is justified by a subjective idea of color measurement methods. The implementation of the goal was carried out using the methods of analysis adopted in the industry. The authors recorded the spectral characteristics of melanoidin extracts with maxima at 340 nm for two samples of light beer, 340-350 nm for one sample of dark beer and 340-400 nm for another sample of dark beer. The results of studying the composition of melanoidin extracts from beer samples obtained from different types of grain raw materials show differences in the nature of light absorption. The ratios of the carbohydrate and nitrogen-containing components of beer melanoidins obtained by the authors did not show a correlation with the extract content of the initial wort, the color of beer, and the total content of melanoidins in beer. The ratios of reducing and nitrogen compounds in melanoidin extracts were grouped relative to the color of the original beer. It is shown that in light beers the ratio of reducing and nitrogenous compounds is 1:13-1:22 and correlates with the type of more colored malt used, and in dark beers it is 1:10-1:19.
Preliminary Phytochemical Screening of Leaves, Stems and Roots of wild Cannabis sativa
Authors: Sharma Komal , Rana Rinu , Ashawat M S
Published: March 2022

Cannabis sativa Linn. (Cannabinaceae family) is traditional plant well known for its analgesic property. Cannabis is an indigenous plant of Himachal Pradesh. The aim of the present study is to check the phytochemicals present in leaf, stem and roots of wildly grown cannabis plant in the state of Himachal Pradesh. The study also includes morphological and microscopical studies of leaf, stem and roots of wildly grown cannabis plant. The preliminary phytochemical screening of cannabis shows the presence of alkaloids, tannins, phenolic compounds, proteins, amino acids, flavonoids and steroids.
Selection of Best Soft Computing Systems for the Analysis of Heavy Metal Concentration in Soils of a Waste Disposal Site in Khulna
Authors: Rafizul Islam M. , Sarkar Shyamol Kumar
Published: March 2022

Collection of soil samples is labored, time-consuming and the determination of heavy metal concentrations in the laboratory are expensive. The aim of this study was to fix the functions, algorithms as well as optimization of methods for soft computing system such as ANFIS, SVM, and
ANN based on their best performance. In this study, soil samples were collected from eighty five distinct locations in and around of a selected open disposal site at old Rajbandh, Khulna, Bangladesh at a depth 0-30 cm from the existing ground surface. In the laboratory, the concentration of
heavy metals such as Pb, Cu, Ni, Zn, Co, Cd, As, Sc, Hg, Mn, Cr, Ti, Sb, Sr, V and Ba in soils were measured. The soft computing systems such as ANFIS, SVM, and ANN were implemented for the analysis of heavy metal concentrations in soil. The result reveals model with SCP, gaussmf, linear and
hybrid was the best-fitted model of ANFIS. In addition, in SVM analysis, the model SVM-RBF with 15 folds was selected. In ANN, the model LT (Levenberg-Marqardt and Tansig functions) with neuron structure 2-10-1 was selected. The accuracy of the predicted results was checked based on the acceptable
limits of prediction parameters such as R value, RMSE, MAPE, GRI and percentage recovery. The result demonstrates that ANFIS model was a reliable technique than that of other counterparts of SVM and ANN with the acceptable degree of robustness and accuracy. Therefore, the performance of soft
computing systems may be expressed by the sequence of ANFIS > SVM > ANN. Here it can be noted that one can easily be computed the concentration of a particular heavy metal in soil by inserting GPS values (latitude and longitude) only in the developed rule viewer of ANFIS.
Study on Strength and Deformation Characteristics of Expansive Soils Treated with Lime-biomass Ash
Authors: Zhang Deheng , Xu Fenqiang , Zhang Yan , Li Fang
Published: March 2022

This paper investigates the strength deformation of the lime-biomass ash treated expansive soils. The unconfined compressive strength, one-dimensional compression of the modified expansive soil of compaction were studied. The results showed that the maximum dry density and optimum moisture
content of expansive soil decreased with the increase of lime and biomass ash content; The unconfined compressive strength test results show that there is no remarkable change in the unconfined compressive strength of the soils immediately treated with biomass ash, but the sample after 7 days
of curing period of strength has been greatly improved, especially after the addition of lime is more obvious; the compression coefficient, the rebound coefficient of the saturated expansive soil with lime-biomass ash is significantly smaller than saturated expansive soil. The compressive
modulus of the modified expansive soil increases with the increase of vertical pressure, which reflects the hardness of the improved expansive soil.
Employing the Digital Content of Children’s Electronic Magazines in Developing the Educational Values
Authors: Haroon Ahmed Mohammed Arbab Dr. Widad
Published: March 2022

This study sought to identify the importance of digital content published on pages of the children’s electronic magazines and its effectiveness in developing the child’s ethical and educational values, building his personality and satisfying his emotional and mental needs. This study is one of the descriptive studies which employed the analytical survey approach to achieve the study objectives and questions. The researcher has relied on making use of the qualitative and quantitative content analysis tool through the analysis form prepared by her in order to collect the study data on a regular random sample of (150) singles of the digital content published on the website of the Emirati Majid Magazine within the specified period of the study from 1/8/2020 to 1/8/2021. The results have shown that digital videos and animations came first with (27%) of the total media elements used in digital content. The results have also demonstrated that graphics and characters ranked first with (23%) of the total forms and templates of digital content presented to the child, while news and short digital texts(news/ reports) came at forefront of press editorial arts with (20%) and narrative and illustrated stories topped the list of literary arts with (20%). The Magazine was concerned with including digital content published on its pages a number of educational values. The value of loving motherland and defending it came first with (36%) of the total national values, belief in God and His Messenger came first in religious values related to Islamic Creed with (11%), prayer, Zakat and fasting came at the forefront of the list of acts of worship and honoring parents, truth and honesty topped the list of moral values with (17%). The Magazine has enhanced its digital content with a number of positive values, most notably diligence and perseverance with (17%). The social media came first as the most prominent means of interaction between the Magazine audience and its digital content with (36%).