bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
More on hypergeometric Lévy processes
Authors: Horton Emma L. , Kyprianou Andreas E.
Published: July 2016

Kuznetsov and co-authors in 2011‒14 introduced the family of hypergeometric Lévy processes. They appear naturally in the study of fluctuations of stable processes when one analyses stable processes through the theory of positive self-similar Markov processes. Hypergeometric Lévy processes are defined through their characteristic exponent, which, as a complex-valued function, has four independent parameters. In 2014 it was shown that the definition of a hypergeometric Lévy process could be taken to include a greater range of the aforesaid parameters than originally specified. In this short article, we push the parameter range even further.
Stable laws and Beurling kernels
Authors: Ostaszewski Adam J.
Published: July 2016

We identify a close relation between stable distributions and the limiting homomorphisms central to the theory of regular variation. In so doing some simplifications are achieved in the direct analysis of these laws in Pitman and Pitman (2016); stable distributions are themselves linked to homomorphy.
The wake of two staggered square cylinders
Authors: Alam Md. Mahbub , Bai Honglei , Zhou Yu
Published: July 2016

This work aims to provide a systematic experimental study of the wake behind two staggered square cylinders at a Reynolds number$Re=1.3\times 10^{4}$. Four distinct flow regimes, i.e. two single-street modes S-I and S-II and two double-street modes T-I and T-II, are identified based on extensive data, including Strouhal numbers$(St)$, flow structures and their downstream evolution. S-I, S-II and T-II are each further subdivided into two types. The flow characteristics in each regime are presented in terms of shear layer reattachment and impingement, vortex impingement, gap flow behaviour, interaction between cylinders and downstream evolution of the wake. A detailed discussion is made regarding how the physical aspects of the flow are connected to the initial conditions and the$St$number.
Healthy and unhealthy dietary patterns are related to pre-diabetes: a case–control study
Authors: Bagheri Fariba , Siassi Fereydoun , Koohdani Fariba , Mahaki Behzad , Qorbani Mostafa , Yavari Parvaneh , Shaibu Osman Mohammed , Sotoudeh Gity
Published: July 2016

Pre-diabetes increases the risk of diabetes and CVD. Several studies have investigated the relationship between food intake and pre-diabetes morbidity, but the dietary patterns of pre-diabetes subjects were not taken into consideration. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between dietary patterns and pre-diabetes. In this regard, 150 pre-diabetic subjects and 150 healthy controls, who attended the diabetes screening centre in Shahreza, Iran, were matched for age group and sex. The weight, height, waist circumference, physical activity, systolic and diastolic blood pressures, and blood glucose levels of all participants were measured. Dietary information was collected using a semi-quantitative FFQ. Using factor analysis, two dietary patterns were identified: the vegetables, fruits and legumes (VFL) dietary pattern and the sweet, solid fat, meat and mayonnaise (SSMM) dietary pattern. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the relationship between pre-diabetes and dietary patterns. After adjusting for age, education, physical activity, BMI and energy intake, the VFL dietary pattern was found to be negatively associated with lower pre-diabetes (OR 0·16; 95 % CI 0·10, 0·26). Furthermore, the SSMM dietary pattern was positively associated with pre-diabetes (OR 5·45; 95 % CI 3·22, 9·23). In conclusion, the VFL dietary pattern is inversely related to pre-diabetes, whereas the SSMM dietary pattern is associated with increased risk of pre-diabetes.
Low prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intake in young children in the south of Brazil: a new perspective
Authors: Sangalli Caroline Nicola , Rauber Fernanda , Vitolo Márcia Regina
Published: July 2016

In Brazil, children’s eating patterns have been characterised by an increased consumption of ultra-processed foods that are fortified. Our aims were to (1) estimate the prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intake among children from low-income families and (2) to assess micronutrient intake from fortified foods. We carried out a cross-sectional study from a randomised field trial conducted at healthcare centres in Porto Alegre, Brazil, with 446 mother–child pairs, with the children aged 2–3 years. Dietary data were assessed using two 24-h recalls. The prevalence of inadequacy for six micronutrients was estimated using the proportion of individuals with intakes below the estimated average requirement (EAR). Micronutrient intakes from fortified foods were evaluated using EAR and upper tolerable level (UL). Healthy foods consumption was below the recommendations, except for beans, and 88·1 % of the children consumed ultra-processed foods. A low prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intake was observed for Fe (1·2 %), vitamin C (4·7 %), vitamin A (5·2 %), Ca (11·4 %) and folate (15·2 %). None of the children had intakes less than the EAR for Zn. Fortified foods contributed between 11·3 and 38·3 % to micronutrient intakes, and 43·0 % of the children met the EAR for Fe, 13·9 % for vitamin C and 12·3 % for Zn using fortified foods only. In addition, 4·0 % of the children exceeded the UL for vitamin A, 3·1 % for Zn, 1·1 % for folic acid and 0·2 % for Fe. These results highlight a low prevalence of inadequate micronutrient intakes among children and suggest that such a group could be at risk of excessive micronutrient intakes provided by ultra-processed foods.
Influence of ruminal methane on digesta retention and digestive physiology in non-lactating dairy cattle
Authors: Dittmann Marie T. , Hammond Kirsty J. , Kirton Paul , Humphries David J. , Crompton Les A. , Ortmann Sylvia , Misselbrook Tom H. , Südekum Karl-Heinz , Schwarm Angela , Kreuzer Michael , Reynolds Christopher K. , Clauss Marcus
Published: July 2016

Enteric methane (CH4) production is a side-effect of herbivore digestion, but it is unknown whether CH4 itself influences digestive physiology. We investigated the effect of adding CH4 to, or reducing it in, the reticulorumen (RR) in a 4×4 Latin square experiment with rumen-fistulated, non-lactating cows, with four treatments: (i) control, (ii) insufflation of CH4 (iCH4), (iii) N via rumen fistula, (iv) reduction of CH4 via administration of bromochloromethane (BCM). DM intake (DMI), apparent total tract digestibility, digesta mean retention times (MRT), rumen motility and chewing activity, spot breath CH4 emission (CH4exhal, litre/kg DMI) as well as CH4 dissolved in rumen fluid (CH4RRf, µg/ml) were measured. Data were analysed using mixed models, including treatment (or, alternatively, CH4exhal or CH4RRf) and DMI relative to body mass0·85 (rDMI) as covariates. rDMI was the lowest on the BCM treatment. CH4exhal was highest for iCH4 and lowest for BCM treatments, whereas only BCM affected (reduced) CH4RRf. After adjusting for rDMI, CH4RRf had a negative association with MRT in the gastrointestinal tract but not in the RR, and negative associations with fibre digestibility and measures of rumination activity. Adjusting for rDMI, CH4exhal had additionally a negative association with particle MRT in the RR and a positive association with rumen motility. Thus, higher rumen levels of CH4 (CH4exhal or CH4RRf) were associated with shorter MRT and increased motility. These findings are tentatively interpreted as a feedback mechanism in the ruminant digestive tract that aims at mitigating CH4 losses by shortening MRT at higher CH4.
A national FFQ for the Netherlands (the FFQ-NL 1.0): validation of a comprehensive FFQ for adults
Authors: Sluik Diewertje , Geelen Anouk , de Vries Jeanne H. M. , Eussen Simone J. P. M. , Brants Henny A. M. , Meijboom Saskia , van Dongen Martien C. J. M. , Bueno-de-Mesquita H. Bas , Wijckmans-Duysens Nicole E. G. , van ’t Veer Pieter , Dagnelie Pieter C. , Ocké Marga C. , Feskens Edith J. M.
Published: July 2016

A standardised, national, 160-item FFQ, the FFQ-NL 1.0, was recently developed for Dutch epidemiological studies. The objective was to validate the FFQ-NL 1.0 against multiple 24-h recalls (24hR) and recovery and concentration biomarkers. The FFQ-NL 1.0 was filled out by 383 participants (25–69 years) from the Nutrition Questionnaires plus study. For each participant, one to two urinary and blood samples and one to five (mean 2·7) telephone-based 24hR were available. Group-level bias, correlation coefficients, attenuation factors, de-attenuated correlation coefficients and ranking agreement were assessed. Compared with the 24hR, the FFQ-NL 1.0 estimated the intake of energy and macronutrients well. However, it underestimated intakes of SFA andtrans-fatty acids and alcohol and overestimated intakes of most vitamins by >5 %. The median correlation coefficient was 0·39 for energy and macronutrients, 0·30 for micronutrients and 0·30 for food groups. The FFQ underestimated protein intake by an average of 16 % and K by 5 %, relative to their urinary recovery biomarkers. Attenuation factors were 0·44 and 0·46 for protein and K, respectively. Correlation coefficients were 0·43–0·47 between (fatty) fish intake and plasma EPA and DHA and 0·24–0·43 between fruit and vegetable intakes and plasma carotenoids. In conclusion, the overall validity of the newly developed FFQ-NL 1.0 was acceptable to good. The FFQ-NL 1.0 is well suited for future use within Dutch cohort studies among adults.
Keynes and Wall Street
Authors: Chambers David , Kabiri Ali
Published: July 2016

This article examines in detail how John Maynard Keynes approached investing in the U.S. stock market on behalf of his Cambridge College after the 1929 Wall Street Crash. We exploit the considerable archival material documenting his portfolio holdings, his correspondence with investment advisors, and his two visits to the United States in the 1930s. While he displayed an enthusiasm for investing in common stocks, he was equally attracted to preferred stocks. His U.S. stock picks reflected his detailed analysis of company fundamentals and a pronounced value approach. Already in this period, therefore, it is possible to see the origins of some of the investment techniques adopted by professional investors in the latter half of the twentieth century.
The Commitment to LOT
Authors: VERDEJO VÍCTOR M.
Published: July 2016

I argue that acceptance of realist intentional explanations of cognitive behaviour inescapably lead to a commitment to the language of thought (LOT) and that this is, therefore, a widely held commitment of philosophers of mind. In the course of the discussion, I offer a succinct and precise statement of the hypothesis and analyze a representative series of examples of pro-LOT argumentation. After examining two cases of resistance to this line of reasoning, I show, by way of conclusion, that the commitment to LOT is an empirically substantial one in spite of the flexibility and incomplete character of the hypothesis.
Basement-involved deformation overprinting thin-skinned deformation in the Pampean flat-slab segment of the southern Central Andes, Argentina
Authors: JAPAS MARIA SILVIA , RÉ GUILLERMO HÉCTOR , ORIOLO SEBASTIÁN , VILAS JUAN FRANCISCO
Published: July 2016

In the southern Central Andes, the Andean foreland was deformed due to Neogene shallowing of the Nazca slab beneath the South America plate. In this 27–33ºS Pampean flat-slab segment, the N-trending Argentine Precordillera transpressional fold-and-thrust belt and the Sierras Pampeanas broken foreland developed as a consequence of inward migration of the orogenic front. At 28ºS, a NNE-trending westward-dipping, thick Neogene synorogenic sequence is exposed in the Sierra de los Colorados, which shares deformation features of the Precordillera and the Sierras Pampeanas. Integration of new structural and kinematic data and available structural, kinematic, geophysical and palaeomagnetic information allows consideration of the Sierra de los Colorados area as part of the northern sector of the Precordillera during the middle Neogene. Atc. 9 Ma, basement block exhumation started with the uplift of the Sierra de Umango-Espinal that was triggered by deformation along the NE-trending Tucumán oblique belt. This stage marked the beginning of compartmentalization of the incipiently deformed Vinchina foreland. Sincec. 6.8–6.1 Ma, basement block uplift linked to the Miranda–Chepes and Valle Fértil NNW-trending sinistral transpressional belts, as well as kinking of the Neogene sequence by localized WNW-striking cross-strike structures, resulted in multiple segmentation that produced a complex mosaic of basement-block pieces. The overprint of these regional, basement-involved, oblique, brittle–ductile transpressional and cross-strike megazones could be related to high interplate coupling. Localized mechanical and rheological changes introduced by magmatism favoured this thick-skinned deformation overprint.
Soil carbon and nitrogen and barley yield responses to repeated additions of compost and slurry
Authors: HOPKINS D. W. , WHEATLEY R. E. , COAKLEY C. M. , DANIELL T. J. , MITCHELL S. M. , NEWTON A. C. , NEILSON R.
Published: July 2016

The yields of spring barley during a medium-term (7 years) compost and slurry addition experiment and the soil carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) contents, bacterial community structure, soil microbial biomass and soil respiration rates have been determined to assess the effects of repeated, and in some cases very large, organic amendments on soil and crop parameters. For compost, total additions were equivalent to up to 119 t C/ha and 1·7 t N/ha and for slurry they were 25 t C/ha and 0·35 t N/ha over 7 years, which represented very large additions compared to control soil C and N contents (69 t C/ha and 0·3 t N/ha in the 0–30 cm soil depth). There was an initial positive response to compost and slurry addition on barley yield, but over the experiment the yield differential between the amounts of compost addition declined, indicating that repeated addition of compost at a lower rate over several years had the same cumulative effect as a large single compost application. By the end of the experiment it was clear that the addition of compost and slurry increased soil C and N contents, especially towards the top of the soil profile, as well as soil respiration rates. However, the increases in soil C and N contents were not proportional to the amount of C and N added, suggesting either that: (i) a portion of the added C and N was more vulnerable to loss; (ii) that its addition rendered another C or N pool in the soil more susceptible to loss; or (iii) that the C inputs from additional crop productivity did not increase in line with the organic amendments. Soil microbial biomass was depressed at the highest rate of organic amendment, and whilst this may have been due to genuine toxic or inhibitory effects of large amounts of compost, it could also be due to the inaccuracy of the substrate-induced respiration approach used for determining soil biomass when there is a large supply of organic matter. At the highest compost addition, the bacterial community structure was significantly altered, suggesting that the amendments significantly altered soil community dynamics.
Expression of CD44 variant isoforms, CD44v3 and CD44v6, are associated with prognosis in nasopharyngeal carcinoma
Authors: Sagawa K , Uwa N , Daimon T , Sakagami M , Tsujimura T
Published: July 2016

Objective:

The clinical and prognostic significance of CD44 variant isoform expression in nasopharyngeal carcinoma is not well known. This study aimed to clarify whether CD44 variant isoform expression serves as a prognostic factor in nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

Methods:

Forty-two nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients, who underwent concurrent chemoradiotherapy as the initial treatment, were the subjects of investigation. Expression of CD44 variant isoforms, CD44v3, CD44v4, CD44v5, CD44v6 and CD44v7, in nasopharyngeal carcinoma was assessed in relation to concurrent chemoradiotherapy resistance and disease-specific survival of the patients.

Results and conclusion:

The patients with CD44v6 high expression showed a clinically incomplete response to concurrent chemoradiotherapy at the primary site. The disease-specific survival rate was lower in patients with high expression of CD44v3 than in those with low expression. These results suggest that analysis of CD44v6 and CD44v3 expression is useful in estimating prognosis and determining effective treatment strategies in nasopharyngeal carcinoma.
The Aesthetical Significance of the Tragic
Authors: The Rt. Hon. The Earl of Listowel, Ph.D.
Published: July 2016

It has long been the habit of philosophers, and is still a common failing of ordinary playgoers, to see tragedy through the coloured spectacles of an acquired philosophical or religious outlook, and to commend or condemn rather from the standpoint of partiality for a certain view about life in general than from that of one assessing the intrinsic merits of a work of art. Because we all, whether laymen or specialists, theorize about the nature and destiny of that mysterious universe which, for a brief span, our minds illumine, and because the working hypothesis so engendered is inevitably tinged by our personal idiosyncrasies of temperament and taste, there have been—and, building on such a foundation, there must be—almost as many different theoretical explanations of the tragic as theoreticians speculating on this high theme. Besides introducing that personal equation which has always been anathema to science, the distorted vision for which philosophical preconceptions are responsible brings with it minor illusions that are scarcely less injurious; the reading into a play or a novel of notions that had never entered the poet's brain, or the interpolation of history with incidents that never really occurred, the discarding of much that is genuinely tragic because it happens not to fit into the mould shaped by our own ideas, and the acceptance of much that is not merely untragic, but actually inartistic—pacifist, or communist, or feminist, or religious propaganda—because it happens to display the native hue of our own convictions.
Great Thinkers
Authors: Laird John
Published: July 2016

Nicolas Malebranche was born in Paris on August 6, 1638, and died there on October 13, 1715. According to Fontenelle he was a tenth, according to André a thirteenth child, and his “machine” (i.e. his body) was persistently refractory. He was tall—about six feet—but something misshapen from rickets or some other such cause. His spine, according to the unprofessional P. Adry, was “tortueuse dans toute sa longueur,” his clavicles too large, while his arms “n'étaient point attachés à l'ordinaire.” Besides he had “all the maladies known in his time,” including severe acidity of the stomach from the age of twenty-five onwards (probably arising from a duodenal ulcer). Nevertheless, he used to chew tobacco and was one of the earliest Parisians to become a coffee-drinker. For the most part, however, he tried to “manage his machine” by drinking water copiously. His portraits show him to have been strange, gaunt, intense, high-browed, and small-chinned.
The Philosophy of Maimonides and its Systematic Place in the History of Philosophy
Authors: Atlas S.
Published: July 2016

Moses Maimondes, born March 30, 1135, the eight hundredth anniversary of whose birth we now commemorate, is one of those universal spirits who mastered the whole realm of knowledge of their time. His fruitful and extensive literary activity covered many fields: astronomy, medicine, Talmud, and philosophy. His works on medicine were in former tunes highly esteemed. In the field of philosophy he strove for the synthesis of Aristotelianism and revealed religion, an endeavour which was of paramount importance for the later development of philosophic thought. His influence as a philosopher is not confined to the sphere of Jewish thought, but has left a lasting impression on the history of philosophy in general.
Philosophy in France
Authors: Keeling S. V.
Published: July 2016

History and Legend are, Professor Robin believes, traditionally misconceived in being conceived as in conflict. To write history is either to destroy utterly the claim of some legend to be veridical, or else to rediscover, behind what is imaginary or fabulous in it, indications of what the facts really were. Such is the accredited view. But, asks M. Robin, is not legend, on the contrary, a positive element in history? And he answers in effect that nowhere is legend more regular, indeed more necessary, than in its contribution to the history of philosophy, ancient and modern. This history has a wholly original character. It does not resemble the history of the sciences; for this relates either the checkmates in research—instructive to be sure, but dead for future science—or else its victories—equally instructive, though only their results survive. Nor does it resemble literary history; for even if this be accompanied by evaluatory criticism, seldom is interpretation of doctrine admitted. Interpreting a philosophy is seizing not only its literal sense, but above all its import and efficacy. It is a continuously creative and reflective activity which unceasingly quickens the materials on which it reflects. But since what is called objectivity cannot be attained by the historian of philosophy except by shutting his eyes to the limits of his powers, he must candidly confess—and without admitting that the confession impairs the value of his effort—that objectivity cannot be his chief end. No great philosophy can really be considered dead, its sincere and sympathetic evocation is always possible. The history of philosophy is philosophy; it is philosophy philosophizing on its past efforts, and contemplating itself in the perenniality of its changing existence.
First Year's Risk
Authors: Moir Henry
Published: July 2016

A correct measure of the Rate of Mortality in the First Year of Assurance is of considerable value. It enables the actuary to calculate the limit to which initial expense may grow without incurring the risk of loss through lapse at the end of the first year ; while its more obvious purpose is to estimate the immediate effect of the Selection by offices through their medical examinations and restrictive rules. In the first year we see the full force of the skill of medical officers pitted against the desire on the part of the lives assured to make their best appearance. We need not suggest that they try to deceive the doctor, but it is often necessary for him to apply tactful cross-questioning in order to elicit important information.
On Premiums Deduced from the Mortality Experience (1863-1893) of British Life Offices
Authors: Chatham James
Published: July 2016

The distinguishing feature of the New Experience which differentiates it from all others, is the division of the observations into various classes of assurance; and when our President did me the honour of asking me to contribute a paper, I thought I could not do better than invite your attention to the premiums which, according to that experience, ought to be charged for these classes, as it is of the greatest importance to insurance companies generally that the risks which they undertake should be at adequate rates. Some of us have suspected, others have known, that the fate of mortality varied according to the class of assurance, and that one table of mortality applied to all was not satisfactory; but it is now possible for the first time to arrive at definite conclusions on the subject, and to determine in many cases what the difference between them really is.
On Policy Values Deduced from the Mortality Experience (1863-1893) of British Life Offices
Authors: Chatham James
Published: July 2016

In the Paper which I had the honour of submitting to you at the close of last session, “On Premiums deduced from the Mortality Experience of British Life Offices”, I expressed the hope that at a future time I might have an opportunity of inviting your consideration to the other branch of the subject, namely, policy values. This hope I am now able to realise.

I have based my calculations upon the “Grouped Select and Ultimate” rates of mortality obtained from the unadjusted observations in the manner explained in the paper referred to. The period during which selection was assumed to exist was, it will be remembered, ten years; and the observations at five consecutive ages at entry were grouped together, and the results assumed to relate to the central age of the group. A correction to first differences was made, as the average age of the group differed in most cases from the central age at entry, owing to the number of entrants varying at each age. The net premiums are given in that paper, and the annuity values from which they were deduced have been used in the calculation of the policy values. Any additional annuity values required were calculated in the same way as before, a correction to first differences being made for the age, when necessary.Notwithstanding that the unadjusted observations have been used, the results will be found to be very regular.
Notes on Mortality in India and some other Tropical Countries
Authors: Thomson Spencer Campbell
Published: July 2016

Before bringing to your notice the short memorandum which I have prepared on the subject of mortality in the tropics, I feel that I owe the Faculty an apology for submitting to them so fragmentary a paper as the present.

I had hoped, by recapitulating the history of mortality statistics in India and some other tropical countries from the earliest date at which these became available, to have traced down to the present day the progress that has been made and the lives which have been saved in consequence of improved manner of living and enlarged knowledge and better treatment of disease; but other duties intervened which prevented my fulfilling my purpose, and my intended paper has contracted into these few notes exhibiting the experience of my own company.
Life Offices and Trust Funds
Authors: Paterson William Brockie
Published: July 2016

The growth and development of life assurance has formed the subject of many papers read by Presidents and other distinguished members of the Faculty and of the Institute of Actuaries, who have traced in their writings its progress from very feeble beginnings to the position of importance it now occupies in the public mind, and have shown how a great system based upon large experience has evolved by degrees from the arbitrary methods of earlier days. The life assurance funds of the companies having their head offices in Great Britain and Ireland, according to the returns published by the Board of Trade last year, now exceed £255,000,000, their annual premium income £22,400,000, and the sums assured on their books £660,000,000—figures which demonstrate in a practical and conclusive way the immense confidence with which these institutions are regarded, especially when it is remembered that the contracts, the fulfilment of which is relied upon, are in most cases either lifelong or maturing only after many years. Even prior to the passing of the Life Assurance Companies Act, 1870, the hold that the companies had obtained upon public esteem was by no means insignificant, as life assurance funds of £87,000,000 and a premium income of over £9,000,000 testify; but without the publicity which the returns prescribed by the Act have secured, it would have been much more difficult, if not altogether impossible, to put forward the appeal to have the contracts of life offices admitted as trustee investments which it is the object of this paper to initiate. The advantages that have accrued from the Act are, I believe, recognised by all insurance men, and there is no occasion to enlarge upon them here, beyond the simple statement that the security afforded by the contract of an insurance company has been greatly enhanced thereby, and that the means of discrimination essential for the present purpose have been adequately supplied through its provisions.
The English Land Registry
Authors: Hart James Robert
Published: July 2016

It has become important for members of our profession to know something of the English Land Registration system. Our future practice in dealing with mortgages may be materially affected by it; moreover, the question of its extension has reached a stage at which nearly every one, in England at least, is called upon to consider and form an opinion as to its merits. Here, too, the public has some practical interest in the question. It is quite probable there may be a demand for the extension of the system to this part of the kingdom; in fact, I am told that a deputation from Glasgow has already inspected the London Registry with this idea in view. In the following remarks, therefore, I shall try to bring together the chief features of registration of title to land according to the English system, and explain the circumstances under which it is being worked at the present time. The treatment of such a subject is not without difficulties. It necessarily involves a number of intricate legal points, and without a thorough knowledge and experience of English land laws, one is not in the position to follow it in all its bearings. But although I cannot attempt to deal with all the legal questions that arise, I think there may even be some advantage in a paper by one who is not a lawyer. There cannot be the same charge of bias; and it is possible that the points more particularly affecting such a profession as ours, may be more prominently brought out by one of its own members.
Notes on Local Loans
Authors: Kyd Thomas
Published: July 2016

Public Debts, whether national or local, belong to modern history. Our National Debt dates from the Revolution of 1688. It is five years after that event until we find the item “Interest and Management of the Public Debt” figuring in the accounts of the Exchequer. At William's death in 1702 the debt was twelve millions, an amount which was increased threefold during the twelve years of the reign of Anne. George the First's thirteen years raised our national obligations to fifty-two millions, while by 1760, when George the Second died, they exceeded one hundred millions. During the long reign of George the Third the burden swelled enormously. The rise was just a geometrical progression, from twelve to a hundred millions in fifty-eight years, and from one to nine hundred millions in the sixty years succeeding. The explanation, of course, is war. We spent a hundred millions in a vain attempt to compel the allegiance of the United States, and more than eight hundred millions in avenging Louis XVI., overthrowing Napoleon, and restoring the Bourbons to the throne of France.
An Analysis of Profit from Endowment Assurances
Authors: Chatham James
Published: July 2016

A great deal has been written about Endowment Assurances, which now form so large a proportion of the new business of life assurance offices, but their effect upon the business has been only partially investigated, and much yet remains to be done. It is generally admitted that the mortality in this class is better than that prevailing in other classes, and recently Mr. R. P. Hardy brought before the Congress of Actuaries in New York an interesting paper, in which he stated that “while probably the results would vary in their incidence according to the tables brought into contrast, it appears to me that one effect of a better mortality is to show a gradually reduced surplus. And if this be the case, some care is necessary in relying upon future profits according to their past experience.” He appended a table showing the quinquennial surplus or deficiency arising when the premiums are charged, and the reserves made, according to the American table as adjusted by Mr. Arthur Hunter, while the mortality experienced is that of the OM table; and the results show that, for endowment assurances of 15, 20 and 25 years, the surplus at each quinquennium, as a rule, diminishes very rapidly. It should be noted that these calculations were made at 3 per cent interest throughout.
Notes on Recent Legal Decisions relating to Life Assurance
Authors: Wark John L.
Published: July 2016

In 1893 Mr. William Harvey delivered to the Actuarial Society of Edinburgh a paper on “Misrepresentation and Concealment as affecting policies of Insurance,” and in the following year a series of “Lectures on Insurance Law.” I have no desire to trench upon the ground covered in these lectures, but what I now propose is to supplement them by putting before you, briefly, the results of the more important decisions relating to life assurance which have occurred in the English and Scottish Courts since these lectures were delivered. In dealing with the decisions I propose to follow the order of treatment adopted by Mr. Harvey, and I shall endeavour, also following him, to notice the American cases, and to indicate how far these are likely to be useful as authorities in our law. The subject of Trust and Settlement Policies has been separately dealt with by Mr. Constable in his paper on “The Married Women's Policies of Assurance (Scotland) Act, 1880”; but there are a number of decisions since that paper was delivered which also I think it right to bring under your notice.
Redemption Values
Authors: Nicoll John
Published: July 2016

Reference has frequently been made to the fact that Life Assurance Companies are daily in the habit of undertaking liabilities which, in most cases, will not mature for a great number of years to come. As a rule, such deferment of the liability is welcomed by the offices as being in their view advantageous rather than otherwise. In most cases, however, it is not the office alone that undertakes liability. The policyholder on his part agrees to pay to the office a premium, it may be for a fixed number of years, should he live so long, or even during the remainder of his lifetime, no matter how long that may endure. It has been pointed out that, while the policyholder may at any time bring the engagement entered into between himself and the Assurance Office to an end without the latter's consent, the Company has usually no power to terminate the contract except with the concurrence of the policyholder.
Notes on an Investigation of the Sickness and Mortality Experience of a Friendly Society
Authors: Marr Vyvyan
Published: July 2016

The Valuation of a Friendly Society differs from that of a Life Assurance Company trading under modern conditions, in that the object of the Valuation is to ascertain the minimum amount required to enable the Society to meet its obligations. In other words, Valuations are made on a solvency basis, and questions such as the maintenance of a sufficient margin of security to keep up a Bonus Rate and an equitable distribution of Profits do not, as a rule, arise. This being so, it is of the greatest importance to be sure that the Tables made use of for valuation purposes conform with the Experience of the Society in regard to rates of sickness, mortality, withdrawal and interest.
Some Remarks upon the Curves of Policy Values
Authors: Brodie Robert Raynal
Published: July 2016

Some of the more common forms of benefit involving compound interest and mortality are merely variations of one general contract, and are in their limiting cases identical. For example, a short-term policy becomes simply a whole-life assurance when the term is indefinitely extended; and limited-payment policies and endowment assurances continually approach the whole-life contract as the number of payments or the term of the endowment is increased. When more than one life is involved the benefit, if payable on the first death, is of a slightly different nature, but if payable on the death of the last survivor—in the case of either a joint or a contingent assurance—it approaches in one of its limiting cases merely a whole-life policy on a single life. The object of the present paper is to consider in a general way some features of the curves of the values under different classes of policy, and to notice how these curves are affected by Select Mortality and other factors.
Some Aspects of a Fall in the Rate of Mortality as Affecting the Liabilities of a Friendly Society
Authors: Brodie Robert Raynal
Published: July 2016

Synopsis of Paper

The Paper draws attention to the loss arising on the sickness funds of Friendly Societies as a result of the steady fall in the rate of mortality amongst the general population in recent years. To set against this loss there are possible sources of profit such as a gain from favourable rates of sickness actually experienced or from excess rates of interest earned ; and if a Society grants a funeral benefit in addition to sickness benefit (as is commonly the case) the gain from light mortality under the former will help to offset the loss from light mortality under the latter. The relative periods of full and reduced benefits and the limiting age up to which sickness benefit is payable (whether granted throughout life or restricted to members below a certain age) are also of importance when the question of mortality loss is under consideration.

Notwithstanding the period that has elapsed and the improvement in mortality that has taken place since the date of publication of the tables based upon the experience of the Manchester Unity of Oddfellows during the years 1893-97, these tables are still employed as the standard tables for much Friendly Society work. The object of the Paper is to consider how the loss arising from certain assumed reductions in the rate of mortality may be set against gains from other sources, so that standard reserves may be set up without profit or loss accruing.
Notes on Certain Tropical Diseases
Authors: Mascall A. J.
Published: July 2016

Synopsis

The subject of tropical mortality has in the past received a moderate share of attention, and actuaries have at their command various mortality experiences for climates other than temperate. These without exception show higher, in some cases much higher, mortality than that to be expected in this country. These notes have been made with the object of giving some short account of various tropical diseases to which this higher mortality is no doubt to be attributed.

The very marked improvement during recent years in tropical vitality among assured lives can be dated from the closing years of last century, when the true cause of such diseases as malaria, filaria, and yellow fever was discovered to be their propagation by certain mosquitoes. Correct methods of prevention or at any rate mitigation of the spread of these diseases were then able to be taken.

Although mosquito-borne fevers account for most of the increased mortality in the tropics, certain diseases of the intestinal tract, such as cholera, dysentery and sprue, have their part in bringing about this undesirable state of affairs.

Other diseases which cannot be held to have much effect on assured lives, however disastrous they may prove to the native populations, are leprosy, hook-worm disease, beriberi, and pellagra ; and of these some shorter notes are given.
On Graduation by the General Formulae of Oscillatory Interpolation
Authors: Reid A. R. , Dow J. B.
Published: July 2016

Synopsis

The paper is an attempt to bring out the exact relationship between what has been called the ‘modified osculatory process’ and the older formulae of osculatory interpolation. The conditions upon which the modified process is stated to be based are shown to be insufficient in themselves to produce a determinate formula even after the degree has been made as low as possible, and a general formula is derived which satisfies these conditions and of which the formulae hitherto employed are particular cases. The general formula contains, as might be expected, certain arbitrary constants which reflect the relaxation of certain of the conditions insisted on by the older formulae.

Illustrative graduations are performed by means of the general formulIllustrative graduations are performed by means of the general formula

and the results are compared with previous graduations of the same data by Jenkins's fifth difference formula (which may be obtained by putting b=0 in the general formula), viz.:—

This is the particular case of the general formula which has hitherto been used in practice.
Approximations to the Values of Certain Actuarial Functions leading to Suggested Check Methods of Valuation of Endowment Assurances
Authors: Stoodley Charles L.
Published: July 2016

It is demonstrated, with particular reference to the OM, OM(5) and A1924–29 Tables, that over the range age 20 to age 65 of a normal mortality table, μx can, with a close degree of approximation to the tabular values, be expressed in the form

leading to the following analogous expressions:—

Generally, all functions involving mortality within the stipulated range can be expressed in a similar form as purely mathematical and easily evaluated functions of the initial age and interest in combination.

It is claimed that the evaluation of such temporary functions at any rate of interest is thereby greatly facilitated.

The retrospective and prospective values of an endowment assurance policy in terms of the formula are investigated, and check methods of valuation, continuous in process and independent of the working principles and practice of the principal method, are put forward.

Numerical results and examples of the procedure are given in the paper.
Elementary Notes on Simple Summations and Summations of Products
Authors: Fraser Duncan C.
Published: July 2016

Synopsis

The paper is intended as an elementary introduction and companion to the paper on “Orthogonal Polynomials,” by G. J. Lidstone, J.I.A., vol. briv., p. 128, and the paper on the “Sum and Integral of the Product of Two Functions,” by A. W. Joseph, J.I.A., vol. lxiv., p. 329; and also to Dr. Aitken's paper on the “Graduation of Data by the Orthogonal Polynomials of Least Squares,” Proc. Roy. Soc. Edin., vol. liii., p. 54.

Following Dr. Aitken Σux is defined for the immediate purpose to be u0+…+ux−1.The scheme of successive summations is set out in the form of a difference diagram and is extended to negative arguments. The special point to which attention is drawn is the existence of a wedge of zeros between the sums for positive arguments and those for negative arguments.

The rest of the paper is for the greater part a study of the table of binomial coefficients for positive and for negative arguments. The Tchebychef polynomials are simple functions of the binomial coefficients, and after a description of a particular example and of its properties general methods are given of forming the polynomials by means of tables of differences. These tables furnish examples of simple, differences, of divided differences, of adjusted differences, and of a system of special adjusted differences which gives a very easy scheme for the formation of the Tchebychef polynomials.
Bonus Maintenance on a Valuation by the A1924–29 Tables
Authors: Granger Charles Keith
Published: July 2016

Synopsis

Assuming that the A1924–29 mortality will in the future be generally used in life office valuations, investigation is made as to the margin necessary between the rates of interest realised and anticipated in the valuation in order to maintain a simple or compound bonus at the rate of 30s. per cent.

It is found that the margin necessary is greater than that deemed sufficient under the OM tables.

In the case of a simple bonus, however, it has of course been the practice to value the bonus also at the lower rate, thus making a greater reserve for future bonus than is necessary, while in a compound bonus office the existing bonus has not always been valued at a rate of interest 1½ per cent, lower than that anticipated which would be necessary in order to maintain a future bonus in respect of that existing at the rate of 30s. per cent.

It is shown that under the new tables a margin of ¾ per cent, in the case of a simple and ¼ per cent, in the case of a compound bonus is still sufficient to maintain a bonus of 30s. per cent, subject to certain limitations as regards expenses.

The necessity of making annual valuations is stressed and approximate methods of computing the fluctuations in the Mortality and Loading profits are outlined.
The Treatment of a Deficiency Disclosed by the Valuation of a Friendly Society
Authors: Brodie Robert Raynal
Published: July 2016

Synopsis

Although the average degree of solvency among friendly societies has been steadily rising in recent years, valuations in a considerable number of cases still disclose a deficiency. Some of the large affiliated orders have methods of their own for assisting branches in difficulties, but in the case of many societies no such help is available, and other means have to be found for improving the financial position. The object of the paper is to consider some of the methods by which the degree of solvency may be raised, more particularly with reference to such aspects of the problem as (1) negative values, (2) the relative shares of the extinguished deficiency borne by members of different ages, and (3) the effect of different age distributions.
The Mortality Experience of Scotland in the Years 1930–32
Authors: Kyd James Gray , Brown Peter Gordon
Published: July 2016

Synopsis

The authors review the Life Tables published in connection with the 1931 Census of Scotland.

They discuss the suitability of the enumerated population as a reliable index of the mean population to which deaths in the three calendar years nearest to the census date should be related, and explain the steps which were taken to obtain a more satisfactory representation of the true exposed to risk at periods of life when the census population was obviously unsuitable.

The methods used for the graduation of the crude data are explained. Comparisons are made of the mortality of the two sexes and in regard to varying marital status. Further figures are given showing the relation between the mortality shown by the more recent tables and that exhibited by earlier investigations. The mortality in various parts of Scotland is exhibited and the death-rates in the country as a whole are compared with those found in other parts of the United Kingdom.

The question of the most suitable function for use in comparing national life tables is considered and the popular misconception of the true meaning of the “expectation of life” is discussed.
The Valuation of Joint Life and Survivorship Annuities
Authors: Elphinstone M. D. W. , Lindsay W. G. P.
Published: July 2016

Joint life and survivorship annuities on two lives form a troublesome class to deal with in valuations. Since the reserves are functions of two variables the annuities fall naturally into so many groups that they are often valued individually. In an office which writes much annuity business this process is laborious.
Life Assurance – Past and Present
Authors: Laing J. Murray
Published: July 2016

Synopsis

The author reviews the progress of the past fifty years from various angles, touching upon changes brought about by the development of mechanical aids and improved valuation methods as affecting work in a life office; the growth of the business in force; changes in the character of the risks underwritten; the trend from With to Without profit Tables and the movement in premium rates.

Investment problems; rate of interest and income tax; mortality; extra rating and policy conditions are also discussed.

The review of the foregoing has reference to ordinary life assurance, but the author concludes his paper with brief references to industrial assurance and national insurance.