bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The Legal Context of School Violence: The Effectiveness of Federal, State, and Local Law Enforcement Efforts to Reduce Gun Violence in Schools
Authors: Redding Richard E. , Shalf Sarah M.
Published: March 2003

In the wake of recent school shootings, communities and legislatures are searching for law enforcement solutions to the perceived epidemic of school violence. A variety of legal measures have been debated and proposed. These include: the enactment of tougher gun control laws and more vigorous federal and local enforcement of existing gun control laws; the enactment of laws imposing civil or criminal liability on parents for their children’s violent behavior; the establishment of specialized courts and prosecution strategies for handling juveniles who are charged with weapons offenses; stricter enforcement of school disciplinary codes; reform of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act to make it easier to expel students for weapons violations; and greater use of alternative schools as placements for students who are charged with weapons violations.

 This article provides a legal and empirical analysis of proposed legislation in these areas as informed by social science research on the patterns of school violence, gun acquisition by juveniles, and the effectiveness of various laws and law enforcement measures. It proposes and discusses recommendations for legal reform. While efforts to reduce school violence will be most effective at the state and local levels, the United States federal government has an important role to play, particularly in federal‐state partnerships aimed at disrupting illegal gun markets, and through the formulation of national standards and guidelines. These standards and guidelines are for the enforcement of existing laws; inter‐agency law enforcement cooperation and information‐sharing (particularly using computer‐based analysis); effective school discipline and alternative educational settings for disruptive youth; and psycho‐educational interventions designed to detect and prevent school violence in the first place.
Crime Reduction and the Length of Prison Sentences
Authors: Lippke Richard L.
Published: March 2003

The issue discussed is whether policies of imposing increasingly lengthy prison sentences on serious criminal offenders reduce crime. The empirical evidence for the deterrence and incapacitation effects of incarceration is first examined and found to be of limited help in answering the question whether lengthy prison sentences reduce crime. Conceptual and normative analysis of deterrence and incapacitation suggest that we have little reason to believe that the general use of lengthy prison terms produces more good than harm for society, especially if the burdens of and alternatives to such prison terms are taken into account.
John Maynard Keynes and the French Connection
Authors: Bridel Pascal , Presley John
Published: March 2003

Very little is known of the influence of overseas economists upon the work of John Maynard Keynes. In this paper we examine how Keynes changed his views as a result of his correspondence with Marcel LabordÃre over the period from 1911 to 1945. We focus upon a number of areas including monetary statistics and the psychology of the speculator, the business cycle and The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money.
Interest Rates in Germany and the UK: Cointegration and Error Correction Models
Authors: Cuthbertson Keith , Hayes Simon , Nitzsche Dirk
Published: March 2003

We test the expectations hypothesis (EH) of the term structure using UK and German weekly data on short‐dated instruments with maturities up to one year. For both data sets comprising k interest rates we find that the rank of the cointegrating space is k‐1; but we can only accept that the cointegrating parameter estimates are of the form (‐1, 1,0,…) etc. when considering bilateral combinations of interest rates. When we test the joint null that the set ofk‐1 spreads forms a basis for the cointegration space, this is rejected. However, the point estimates of the cointegration parameters are close to unity and there is no diminution in outside sample forecasting performance of the error correction model equations when the spread restrictions are imposed. On balance, one might conclude that the EH is not grossly at variance with the data.
Regional Insurance Against Asymmetric Shocks: An Empirical Study for the European Community
Authors: Hagen Jürgen von , Hammond George W.
Published: March 2003

The loss of the exchange rate as an independent policy insrument implied by European monetary union calls for an insurance scheme as a buffer against asymmetric shocks. We study the performance of such a system using historical data. A reasonable insurance scheme can be implemented on the basis of a fairly complex econometric formula. Simplifying the computation of the transfers severely worsens the performance of the system. Forcing the system to balance financially is not a critical constraint. The simulations show that stabilizing asymmetric shocks around a common trend may amplify the univariate variance of GDP for some member countries.
Testing for Purchasing Power Parity: Econometric Issues and an Application to Developing Countries
Authors: Boyd Derick , Smith Ron
Published: March 2003

There is now a vast literature on testing purchasing power parity (PPP). Any test is conditional on a particular econometric specification which embodies a set of auxiliary assumptions. This paper reviews the issues involved in econometric specification and estimation in the time series and panel models used to test PPP. We start from a general model and then systematically examine the implicit restrictions that are imposed to obtain the standard procedures and discuss the implications of these procedures for estimation and inference. The issues are illustrated on data for a panel of 31 developing countries, 1966–90.
Econometric Modelling of UK Aggregate Investment: The Role of Profits and Uncertainty
Authors: Carruth Alan , Dickerson Andrew , Henley Andrew
Published: March 2003

This paper focuses on the determinants of aggregate investment spending in the UK for the industrial and commercial companies (ICC) sector. It complements recent work by Cuthbertson and Gasparro, who study an augmented Tobin’s q model of investment in the manufacturing sector. Important focal points of our analysis are a role for real profits (internal funds), which allow firms to combat liquidity constraints when access to capital markets is not perfect, and the impact of irreversibility and uncertainty in determining aggregate investment spending. Earlier work on manufacturing investment by Bean developed a dynamic error‐correction specification based on the flexible accelerator model. Following Cuthbertson and Gasparro we use multivariate cointegration techniques to discover a parsimonious dynamic model, which can explain the investment experience of the ICC sector in the 1980s and early 1990s. Our results show that a model based on investment and output alone does not cointegrate, and a short‐run dynamic model of these variables suffers from heteroscedasticity. This may be consistent with the idea that increased (uncontrolled for) uncertainty has led to increased volatility in investment. The possibility that movements in the real price of gold reflect uncertainty in financial and other traded commodity markets is explored. Investigation of this more general model indicates that real profits and the real price of gold can enhance the explanation of investment spending by the ICC sector.
Does Inflation Targeting Affect the Trade–off Between Output Gap and Inflation Variability?
Authors: Arestis Philip , Caporale Guglielmo Maria , Cipollini Andrea
Published: March 2003

We utilize a stochastic volatility model to analyse the possible effects of inflation targeting on the trade–off between output gap variability and inflation variability. We find that the adoption of inflation targets (in New Zealand, Australia, Canada, the UK, Sweden and Finland) might result in a more favourable monetary policy trade–off (except in Australia and Finland). This conclusion is reached by comparing, first, the economic performance of targeting countries in the 1980s and the 1990s; and second, the economic performance in the 1990s of targeting and non–targeting countries (the USA, Japan, Switzerland, Germany, France and the Netherlands). We focus on two possible explanations for the performance of the inflation–targeting regime: the relatively high degree of monetary policy transparency, and the presence of a flexible institutional framework.
Seasonal Time Series and Autocorrelation Function Estimation
Authors: Lee Hahn Shik , Ghysels Eric , Bell William R.
Published: March 2003

Time series are demeaned when sample autocorrelation functions are computed. By the same logic it would seem appealing to remove seasonal means from seasonal time series before computing sample autocorrelation functions. Yet, standard practice is only to remove the overall mean and ignore the possibility of seasonal mean shifts in the data. Whether or not time series are seasonally demeaned has very important consequences on the asymptotic behavior of autocorrelation functions. The effect on the asymptotic distribution of seasonal mean shifts and their removal is investigated and the practical consequences of these theoretical developments are discussed. We also examine the small sample behavior of autocorrelation function estimates through Monte Carlo simulations.
The Stochastic Structure of the Time–Varying Beta: Evidence from UK Companies
Authors: Choudhry Taufiq
Published: March 2003

The stochastic structure of time–varying betas from 15 companies in the UK is investigated. Time–varying betas are estimated by means of the bivariate MA–GARCH model. The stochastic structure is investigated by means of two fractional integration tests, the Geweke and Porter–Hudak and the Robinson tests, and a structural–break–oriented unit root test. Results show that time–varying betas are mean–reverting but only few have a long memory and thus are mean–reverting at a slow rate. This result is further backed by the structural break unit root test. These results contradict earlier studies, which fail to find a stationary beta. Stationary betas may imply that stock returns may be forecast in the long run.
Financial Liberalization And The Sensitivity Of House Prices To Monetary Policy: Theory And Evidence
Authors: Iacoviello Matteo , Minetti Raoul
Published: March 2003

We analyse the impact of financial liberalization on the link between monetary policy and house prices. We present a simple model of a small open economy subjectto credit constraints. The model shows that the higher the degree of financial liberalizationis, the stronger is the impact of interest rate shocks on house prices. We then usevector autoregressions to study the role of monetary policy shocks in house price fluctuations in Finland, Sweden and the UK, characterized by financial liberalizationepisodes over the last 20 years. We find that the response of house prices to interestrate surprises is bigger and more persistent in periods characterized by more liberalized financial markets.
Twin Peaks—A Reassessment
Authors: Pearlman Joseph G.
Published: March 2003

Distribution dynamics and convergence are re–examined in the light of a consistencyrequirement for the ergodic distribution. The twin peaks phenomenon is reassessed using relative income and log relative income distributions.
The Responsiveness of Consumer Prices to Exchange Rates: A Synthesis Of Some New Open Economy Macro Models
Authors: Engel Charles
Published: March 2003

General equilibrium optimizing models with sticky nominal prices allow us to revisit questions about optimal monetary policy in open economies. If nominal prices are set in producers’ currencies, appropriate monetary policy can reproduce the allocations under flexible prices. If nominal prices are set in consumers’ currencies, stable nominal exchange rates may be desirable. In this case, a nominal exchange rate fixed at the purchasing power parity level can have desirable consequences for risk sharing, and nominal exchange rate flexibility cannot deliver optimal relative price changes. However, evidence shows that pass–through may be greater to import prices than to consumer prices. If prices are fixed for consumers, but importer–distributors face pass–through, then monetary policy–makers face a trade–off that might require some control of nominal exchange rates, but not purely fixed rates.
On the Existence of Minimax Martingale Measures
Authors: BELLINI FABIO , FRITTELLI MARCO
Published: March 2003

Embedding asset pricing in a utility maximization framework leads naturally to the concept of minimax martingale measures. We consider a market model where the price process is assumed to be an d‐semimartingale X and the set of trading strategies consists of all predictable, X‐integrable, d‐valued processes H for which the stochastic integral (H.X) is uniformly bounded from below. When the market is free of arbitrage, we show that a sufficient condition for the existence of the minimax measure is that the utility function u : → is concave and nondecreasing. We also show the equivalence between the no free lunch with vanishing risk condition, the existence of a separating measure, and a properly defined notion of viability.
A Nonlinear Model of the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Authors: Tice Julian , Webber Nick
Published: March 2003

We present an economically motivated two–factor term structure model that generalizes existing stochastic mean term structure models. By allowing a certain parameter to acquire dynamical behavior we extend the two–factor model to obtain a nonlinear three–factor model that is shown, in a deterministic version, to be equivalent to the Lorenz system of differential equations. With reasonable parameter values the model exhibits chaotic behavior. It successfully emulates certain properties of interest rates including cyclical behavior on a business cycle time scale. Estimation and pricing issues are discussed. Standard PCA techniques used to estimate HJM type models are observed to be equivalent to dimensional estimates commonly applied to ‘spatial data’ in nonlinear systems analysis.

It is concluded that techniques commonly used in the analysis of nonlinear systems may be directly applicable to interest rate models, offering new insights in the development of these models. Tests of nonlinearity in interest rate behavior may need to focus on long cycle times.
Bond Market Structure in the Presence of Marked Point Processes
Authors: Björk Tomas , Kabanov Yuri , Runggaldier Wolfgang
Published: March 2003

We investigate the term structure of zero coupon bonds when interest rates are driven by a general marked point process as well as by a Wiener process. Developing a theory that allows for measure–valued trading portfolios, we study existence and uniqueness of a martingale measure. We also study completeness and its relation to the uniqueness of a martingale measure. For the case of a finite jump spectrum we give a fairly general completeness result and for a Wiener–Poisson model we prove the existence of a time–independent set of basic bonds. We also give sufficient conditions for the existence of an affine term structure.
Step Options
Authors: Linetsky Vadim
Published: March 2003

Motivated by risk management problems with barrier options, we propose a flexible modification of the standard knock‐out and knock‐in provisions and introduce a family of path‐dependent options: step options. They are parametrized by a finite knock‐out (knock‐in) rate, ρ. For a down‐and‐out step option, its payoff at expiration is defined as the payoff of an otherwise identical vanilla option discounted by the knock‐out factor exp(‐ρτB‐) or max(1‐ρτ‐B,0), where &\tau;B‐ is the total time during the contract life that the underlying price was lower than a prespecified barrier level ( occupation time). We derive closed‐form pricing formulas for step options with any knock‐out rate in the range $[0,∞). For any finite knock‐out rate both the step option's value and delta are continuous functions of the underlying price at the barrier. As a result, they can be continuously hedged by trading the underlying asset and borrowing. Their risk management properties make step options attractive “no‐regrets” alternatives to standard barrier options. As a by‐product, we derive a dynamic almost‐replicating trading strategy for standard barrier options by considering a replicating strategy for a step option with high but finite knock‐out rate. Finally, a general class of derivatives contingent on occupation times is considered and closed‐form pricing formulas are derived.
Asymptotically Optimal Importance Sampling and Stratification for Pricing Path‐Dependent Options
Authors: Glasserman Paul , Heidelberger Philip , Shahabuddin Perwez
Published: March 2003

This paper develops a variance reduction technique for Monte Carlo simulations of path‐dependent options driven by high‐dimensional Gaussian vectors. The method combines importance sampling based on a change of drift with stratified sampling along a small number of key dimensions. The change of drift is selected through a large deviations analysis and is shown to be optimal in an asymptotic sense. The drift selected has an interpretation as the path of the underlying state variables which maximizes the product of probability and payoff—the most important path. The directions used for stratified sampling are optimal for a quadratic approximation to the integrand or payoff function. Indeed, under differentiability assumptions our importance sampling method eliminates variability due to the linear part of the payoff function, and stratification eliminates much of the variability due to the quadratic part of the payoff. The two parts of the method are linked because the asymptotically optimal drift vector frequently provides a particularly effective direction for stratification. We illustrate the use of the method with path‐dependent options, a stochastic volatility model, and interest rate derivatives. The method reveals novel features of the structure of their payoffs.
Generalized Hyperbolic Diffusion Processes with Applications in Finance
Authors: Rydberg Tina Hviid
Published: March 2003

A special class of diffusion processes, the generalized hyperbolic diffusion processes, is introduced. As a byproduct we present a technique for the construction of one‐dimensional ergodic diffusion processes with a predetermined stationary density. We specifically study the application of this new type of diffusion process to financial data, especially U.S. stock prices. It is seen that in addition to confirming stylized features of the financial market, a key explanation concerning “thick‐”tailed log returns is provided.
A Stochastic Control Approach to Risk Management Under Restricted Information
Authors: Runggaldier Wolfgang J. , Zaccaria Anna
Published: March 2003

We use techniques from discrete‐time stochastic control under partial state information to determine a shortfall‐risk minimizing investment strategy in the case when there is only restricted information on the underlying market model and transaction costs as well as shortselling constraints are present. The approach is adaptive in the sense that it takes into account all the information on the underlying model that becomes successively available to an economic agent by observing the prices in the market. As an immediate byproduct of the approach it is possible to determine the entire shortfall distribution corresponding to the optimal strategy and to various values of the initial capital.
Augustine on the Impossibility of Teaching
Authors: King Peter
Published: March 2003

The information‐transference account of teaching takes it to be a process in which information is transferred from one person's mind to another's. Augustine argues that this is impossible, since in order to understand something the person who understands must come to see why it is so, and that is an internal episode of awareness that isn't caused by an outside source. Augustine's insight here is contrasted with the contemporary view, following Wittgenstein, that learning is a matter of conformity to rules (public norms). The case is made that teaching and learning pose philosophical problems that contemporary theories don't address, and a brief examination of Searle's Chinese Room example suggests that its plausibility derives from Augustine's insight that mere rule‐following behavior isn't enough to explain the phenomenon of understanding at the heart of knowledge. A reconstruction of Augustine's epistemological claims, divorced from his discredited views in the philosophy of language, is also provided.
Defending Particularism
Authors: Dancy Jonathan
Published: March 2003

In this brief response I argue that Sinnott‐Armstrong has underestimated the complexities that moral principles will have to circumvent if they are to survive particularist criticism. I also argue that we cannot yet accept Gert's accounts of moral relevance and of how a sound moral rule can survive exceptions.
Relativism and Interpretive Objectivity
Authors: Margolis Joseph
Published: March 2003

I assume there is no point in speaking of objective interpretation without explaining what it is about the nature of things that fits them for interpretation and how we may be said to know that particular interpretations do indeed fit interpretable things objectively. On that assumption I provide an argument, largely in accord with post‐Kantian themes, to show that a relativistic account of interpretation is not likely to be ruled out by any objectivism or by any exceptionless rule of bivalence. I offer arguments to distinguish between, and account for, what I call interpretation in the “constituting” sense, which bears on the constructed nature of perception and the distinction between description and interpretation, and interpretation in the “ampliative” sense, which bears primarily on the distinctive properties of intrinsically interpretable things. By this strategy I show the sense in which the interpretation of physical phenomena under explanatory conditions invites epistemological forms of incommensurabilism and the Intentional properties of cultural phenomena provide metaphysical grounds for viable forms of relativistic interpretation.
Identity and Difference: A Hundred Years of Analytic Philosophy
Authors: Peijnenburg Jeanne
Published: March 2003

At its origins, analytic philosophy is an interest in language, science, logic, analysis, and a systematic rather than a historical approach to philosophical problems. Early analytic philosophers were famous for making clear conceptual distinctions and for couching them in comprehensible and lucid sentences. It is argued that this situation is changing, that analytic philosophy is turning into its mirror image and is thereby becoming more like the kind of philosophy that it used to oppose.
Global Distributive Justice
Authors: Hinsch Wilfried
Published: March 2003

The paper discusses the problem of global distributive justice. It proposes to distinguish between principles for the domestic and for the global or intersocietal distribution of wealth. It is argued that there may be a plurality of partly diverging domestic conceptions of distributive justice, not all of which need to be liberal egalitarian conceptions. It is maintained, however, that principles regulating the intersocietal distribution of wealth have to be egalitarian principles. This claim is defended against Rawls's argument in The Law of Peoples that egalitarian principles of distributive justice should not be applied globally. Moreover, it is explained in detail, why Rawls's “duty of assistance to burdened societies” cannot be an appropriate substitute for a global principle of distributive justice.
What’s Wrong With Infinite Regresses?
Authors: Nolan Daniel
Published: March 2003

It is almost universally believed that some infinite regresses are vicious, and also almost universally believed that some are benign. In this paper I argue that regresses can be vicious for several different sorts of reasons. Furthermore, I claim that some intuitively vicious regresses do not suffer from any of the particular aetiologies that guarantee viciousness to regresses, but are nevertheless so on the basis of considerations of parsimony. The difference between some apparently benign and some apparently vicious regresses, then, turns out to be a matter of a more general assessment of costs and benefits, making viciousness of regresses in some cases less of a local matter than is usually thought.
On Quine on Philosophical Analysis
Authors: Buzaglo Meir
Published: March 2003

Philosophical analysis is for Quine the replacement of a defective expression by another, sound expression, which performs the same work. In general, then, an analysis consists of two stages: (a) identifying the work that a defective expression performs, and (b) imbedding it in a safe domain. In this essay I argue that Quine’s view does not truly reflect what we do in philosophy. The problem, I think, lies in both stages (a) and (b), but stems from Quine’s assumption that we can control the work performed by language.
From Ultimatum Bargaining to Dictatorship—an Experimental Study of Four Games Varying in Veto Power
Authors: Güth Werner , Huck Steffen
Published: March 2003

Inspired by Bolton and Zwick (1995) we study four different games, namely the ultimatum and dictator game as well as the two games in which a veto (non‐acceptance) of the responder implies that only one of the two players does not receive the proposed payoff. In the experiment the participants had to play either as the proposer or as the responder in all four games. Only the proposer was privately informed about the actual cake size which could be either small or large. The main results were that the offers were more generous when the responder could only veto the proposer's payoff than in ultimatum bargaining which, in turn, induced more generous offers than dictatorship. The worst proposals were observed when the responder could only reject his own payoff. A similar tendency was also observed for the minimal offers required for acceptance although many acceptance strategies were non‐monotonic. Allocators with large cakes did not hide behind the small cake by offering an equal share of the small cake. A pre‐experimental questionnaire designed to trigger considerations of backward induction led to more generosity.
Asymmetric Type Recognition with Applications to Dilemma Games
Authors: Engelmann Dirk
Published: March 2003

I analyze a model of a special form of information asymmetry, namely that players can recognize whether the other players are of their own type or of a different type, without knowing which particular type. If more than two types are present in the population, this implies that knowledge about other players depends both on the own type and on that of the other players. The analysis of two examples, a prisoner’s dilemma and a trust game, shows that this form of information asymmetry can lead to the same results as complete information, while based on less demanding information conditions.
The Impact of Financial Incentives on Quality of Health Care
Authors: Dudley R. Adams , Miller Robert H. , Korenbrot Tamir Y. , Luft Harold S.
Published: March 2003

Purchasers of health care could offer financial incentives to plans or providers in order to increase quality. Unfortunately, the current health care market, in which quality is rarely measured and there is no risk adjustment, actively discourages both plans and providers from maximizing quality, resulting in a poor overall level of quality, both in fee‐for‐service arrangements and health maintenance organizations. Health plans and providers will not focus on quality until mechanisms to correct for risk differences among enrollees can be developed. Although such risk adjustment will be the most important stimulus for quality, it should also be linked to improvements in information systems and agreement on a minimum benefits package, quality reporting standards, and financial solvency requirements.
Community Accountability among Hospitals Affiliated with Health Care Systems
Authors: Alexander Jeffrey A. , Weiner Bryan J. , Succi Melissa
Published: March 2003

The shift from local, community‐based hospitals to more complex, multilevel delivery systems raises questions about the community accountability exercised by hospitals. A national sample of community hospitals is the basis of this study, which examines the ways that community accountability is exercised by the governing boards of hospitals affiliated with health care systems and how such institutions compare with hospitals not affiliated with a health care system. Results indicate that hospitals display community accountability in a variety of ways. Boards of system‐affiliated hospitals exercise community accountability most strongly in their information monitoring and reporting activities, whereas free‐standing hospitals exercise community accountability through the structural and compositional attributes of their boards. Further, hospitals affiliated with different types of systems vary in the style and degree of accountability they demonstrate.
Hospitals Sponsored by the Roman Catholic Church: Separate, Equal, and Distinct?
Authors: White Kenneth R.
Published: March 2003

For centuries, the Catholic Church has been a major social actor in the provision of health services, particularly health care delivered in hospitals. Through a confluence of powerful environmental forces at the beginning of the twenty‐first century, the future of Catholic health care is threatened. Although Catholic hospitals are a separate case of private, nonprofit hospitals, they have experienced environmental pressures to become isomorphic with other hospital ownership types and, on some dimensions, they are equal. To keep pace with the changing demands of religion and the social role of the hospital, Catholic hospitals continue to redefine themselves. To justify a distinct and legitimate social role, more research should be conducted to develop and measure indicators of Catholic identity.
The Health Development Organization: An Organizational Approach to Achieving Child Health Development
Authors: Halfon Neal , Inkelas Moira , Hochstein Miles
Published: March 2003

The health development organization (HDO) is a new approach to the organization and delivery of children’s health and social services. The HDO would combine the best features of vertically integrated HMOs with horizontally integrated, child‐focused social services and longitudinally integrated health promotion strategies. Its mandate would be to develop the health of children in a community. The impetus for creating HDOs is a growing body of evidence in chronic disease epidemiology, developmental psychopathology, early intervention research, and life course cohort studies that point to childhood as the period of life during which adult health status is determined and the opportunities for health capital formation are highest. Thus, a new kind of health care organization or framework, like the HDO, is needed to integrate a full range of critical services for promoting children’s development.
Introduction: The Sausage Factory of Budget Estimation in Health Policy
Authors: Gray Bradford H.
Published: March 2003

The following section contains commentaries on the article “Inside the Sausage Factory: Improving Estimates of the Effects of Health Insurance Expansion Proposals” by Sherry Glied, Dahlia Remler, and Joshua Graff Zivin, which was published in the December issue of the Quarterly. The article explained how economists predict the effects of proposals to expand access to health insurance and made suggestions to improve the comparability of these predictions.

Congressional procedures require estimations of the expected effects, especially the costs, of proposed legislation. Organizations both inside and outside government produce such estimates using available data and simulation models, some of which are proprietary. These estimates, however, often differ substantially for reasons that are not always apparent and that can affect a proposal's political prospects.

Glied, Remler, and Graff Zivin described the estimation process, including the different kinds of models used and the information needed to predict the effects of policy changes that would alter the cost or availability of health coverage for different classes of beneficiaries.
3. Estimating the Impacts of Health Care Reform
Authors: Sheils John
Published: March 2003

Sherry Glied and her coauthors proposed a uniform format in which modelers could report their health system reform estimates and document the key assumptions used in their analyses. These proposals are designed to make the methods and assumptions more transparent to those policymakers who must rely on these estimates to evaluate health reform options. The authors also suggested that the different modelers' estimates would be easier to repair if all modelers used the same assumptions in areas on which they generally agree, which the authors called “consensus assumptions.” Ideally, using comparable assumptions would enable policymakers to evaluate the results from different modelers.

Of course, if modelers really did agree on an assumption, they all could use the same model. Modelers typically select their assumptions based on their own research and a review of the relevant academic literature, which is a process that encourages new interpretations of the data and refinements in our thinking about health system dynamics. Replacing this process with a homogenized list of foregone conclusions could impinge on the creative process of model development.
Mindreading: Mental State Ascription and Cognitive Architecture
Authors: Hernandez Cruz Joseph L.
Published: March 2003

The debate between the theory‐theory and simulation has largely ignored issues of cognitive architecture. In the philosophy of psychology, cognition as symbol manipulation is the orthodoxy. The challenge from connectionism, however, has attracted vigorous and renewed interest. In this paper I adopt connectionism as the antecedent of a conditional: If connectionism is the correct account of cognitive archi‐tecture, then the simulation theory should be preferred over the theory‐theory. I use both developmental evidence and constraints on explanation in psychology to support this claim.
What Brains Won’t Tell Us About the Mind: A Critique of the Neurobiological Argument Against Representational Nativism
Authors: Samuels Richard
Published: March 2003

In their recent and influential book Rethinking Innateness, Jeffrey Elman and his co‐authors argue that evidence from neurobiology provides us with grounds to reject representational nativism (RN). I argue that Elman et al.’s argument fails because it makes a series of unwarranted assumptions about RN and about the extent to which neurobiological data constrain claims about the innateness of mental rep‐resentations. Moreover, I briefly discuss how we ought to understand RN and argue that on two prima facie plausible approaches, far from refuting nativism, the evidence from neurobiology may not even be relevant to the question of whether or not RN is true.
Normativity and Rationality in Delusional Psychiatric Disorders
Authors: Bermúdez José L.
Published: March 2003

Psychiatric treatment and diagnosis rests upon a richer conception of normativity than, for example, cognitive neuropsychology. This paper explores the role that considerations of rationality can play in defining this richer conception of normativity. It distinguishes two types of rationality (procedural and epistemic)and considers how each type can break down in different ways in delusional psychiatric disorders.
The World in a Wafer: A Geography of the Eucharist as Resistance to Globalization
Authors: Cavanaugh William T.
Published: March 2003

This essay explores Eucharist as resistance to late‐capitalist “globalization.” Globalization is often touted as the first true realization of catholicity. Globalization is seen as the demise of the nation‐state which has caused so much division among peoples. In contrast, I argue that globalization does not signal the decline of the nation‐state but the perfection of the modern state's subsumption of local communities under the universal. True catholicity is based in the practice of the Eucharist, which realizes a universal communion but does so only in local Eucharistic communities, thus overcoming the dichotomy of universal and particular.
‘We Pray by His Mouth’: Karl Barth, Erving Goffman, and a Theology of Invocation
Authors: Boulton Matthew
Published: March 2003

Rereading the opening question of the Westminster Catechism, “What is the chief end of man?”, I contend in this essay that the act of invocation — giving God thanks, praise, and petitions — is the act in and through which human being itself is founded, constituted and achieved. I take important cues from Karl Barth's Church Dogmatics and The Christian Life, and from sociologist Erving Goffman's work on the shifting “footings” involved in everyday interactions. I argue for an account of the human being as a being‐with‐God, human acting as acting‐with‐God, and human salvation as a restoration to the genuine human partner's work — indeed, the true leitourgia— of thanks, praise and petition to God.
Professionals in the NHS – a case study of business process re‐engineering
Authors: Leverment Yvonne , Ackers Peter , Preston Diane
Published: March 2003

Rather than providing evidence of business process re‐engineering (BPR) as another example of cultural change rhetoric, this case study shows BPR as a substantive initiative that has had a considerable impact on health care professionals. A hybrid of differing bureaucratic professions allows for a diversity specific to the health service. The study highlights a number of controversial issues unique to health care professionals, particularly in the areas of job redesign, multiskilling and empowerment.
Job seekers' perceptions of teleworking: A cognitive mapping approach
Authors: Kerrin Máire , Hone Kate
Published: March 2003

The research reported here examines the claim that the concept of teleworking will attract well qualified individuals to join an organisation. A cognitive mapping technique was used to determine the extent to which negative perceptions were associated with teleworking. The findings have implications for the design and promotion of teleworking.
Monte Carlo Evidence on Cointegration and Causation
Authors: Zapata Hector O. , Rambaldi Alicia N.
Published: March 2003

The small sample performance of Granger causality tests under different model dimensions, degree of cointegration, direction of causality, and system stability are presented. Two tests based on maximum likelihood estimation of error‐correction models (LR and WALD) are compared to a Wald test based on multivariate least squares estimation of a modified VAR (MWALD). In large samples all test statistics perform well in terms of size and power. For smaller samples, the LR and WALD tests perform better than the MWALD test. Overall, the LR test outperforms the other two in terms of size and power in small samples.
Estimating Nested Count Data Models
Authors: Saha Atanu , Dong Diansheng
Published: March 2003

Count data models have found a wide variety of applications not only in applied economics and finance but also in diverse fields ranging from biometrics to political science. Poisson and negative binomial (NB) models have been extensively used in count data analysis. Two particular NB model specifications, NBI and NBII, have been especially popular. However, these models impose arbitrary restrictions on the relation between the conditional mean and variance of the dependent variable, limiting their generality. This study proposes tests for selection among the Poisson and NB models by formally demonstrating that the log likelihood function (LLF) of a general NB model parametrically nests the LLF of the Poisson, NBI and NBII as testable special cases. It also proposes estimation of the general NB model since it allows greater flexibility in the relationship between the mean and variance of the dependent variable than NBI and NBII. The empirical application, which uses micro‐level data on recreational boating, provides support for the paper's main theme. Tests clearly reject not only the Poisson, but also NBI and NBII, in favour of a different NB model, underscoring the importance of the general model specification.
Capital Structure and Labour Demand: Investigations Using German Micro Data
Authors: Funke Michael , Maurer Wolf , Strulik Holger
Published: March 2003

The paper analyses the interaction between capital structure and employment decisions of firms. For this purpose, a theoretical model is developed in which a firm determines employment along an optimal path taking into account financial considerations. The empirical analysis using West German micro data proves that a negative relationship exists between employment and the debt asset ratio of the firm. We also demonstrate that as real wages (sales) increase, employment decreases (increases).
Wage Differences By Gender: Evidence From Recently Graduated MBAS
Authors: Graddy Kathryn , Pistaferri Luigi
Published: March 2003

In this paper we use data from the London Business School of measuredifferences in outgoing salaries of male and female graduates with a Master's in Business Administration degree. This is a relatively homogeneous population of individuals with very similar educational backgrounds, limited work histories, and who enter very similar jobs upon completion oftheir degree. Controlling for differences in individual characteristics as reported on application forms, we (r)nd that the starting salaries of women are approximately 8.6 percent less than men in identical occupations.
A Rich Bell Beaker Burial from Wellington Quarry, Marden, Herefordshire
Authors: Harrison R.J. , Jackson R. , Napthan M.
Published: March 2003

An intact Bell Beaker grave was discovered in February 1996 at Wellington Quarry, Marden, Herefordshire. The unmarked flat grave had no signs of a ditch or barrow, but may have been timber lined. It contained a tanged copper knife, a shale wristguard fragment, four barbed and tanged arrowheads, three arrowhead blanks, three flint knives, two triangular points or small daggers and four flint flakes. The adult male inhumation was accompanied by a complete, Maritime (AOO) Bell Beaker and may be dated to 2750–2500 BC (Late Neolithic). It belongs to Case's Group D. A notable feature of the grave goods is their different states of wear and completeness, varying from pristine to old, and including a fragment of a wristguard.
Building Anderita Late Roman Coastal Defences and the Construction of the Saxon Shore Fort at Pevensey
Authors: Pearson A.F.
Published: March 2003

The construction of the Roman coastal installation at Pevensey (East Sussex) in the late third century represented a building project of considerable importance, size and complexity. A study of the surviving material has identified the lithologies employed in the fort’s construction, the approximate quantities in which they were present and the likely areas from which they were quarried. Local sources were exploited wherever possible, although an insufficient supply of brick seems to have forced the builders to look further afield for a substitute material for use in the bonding courses. The location of the quarries suggests that the majority of raw materials were moved by boat, and that the transport fleet required was remarkably small. Estimates of the length of construction for the later series of Shore Forts range from less than three years to over four decades. The labour and transport requirements have been calculated for Pevensey, allowing a discussion of the feasibility of each of these proposed time scales. It is argued that all were achievable, although in the briefer scenarios the army would have been unable to provide sufficient manpower, necessitating a draft of civilian labourers.
The Abandonment of the ZH‐Mozartstrasse Early Bronze Age Lake‐settlement. GIS Computer Simulation of the Lake‐level Fluctuation Hypothesis
Authors: Menotti Francesco
Published: March 2003

Although ‘lake‐dwellings’ existed from the middle of the fifth millennium to the eighth century BC, the entire phenomenon was not a continuous one. There are several periods when the lake shores were abandoned and subsequently reoccupied. The pattern of occupation depends on cultural as well as environmental factors, amongst them the topography and the climate.

Unlike the southern part of the Alps, which seems to have had a more regular occupational pattern throughout the Neolithic and the Bronze Age, the northern Alpine region shows a marked discontinuity along most of the lake shores. Two relevant breaks in lake‐shore occupation are known within the northern Alpine region Bronze Age. The first occurred between the 24th and the 20th centuries BC, and the second from the 15th to the middle of the 12th century BC.

The Early Bronze Age site of ZH‐Mozartstrasse, situated on the western extreme of Lake Zurich (Switzerland), was abandoned immediately before the beginning of the second major occupational gap in 1503 BC. Two other Early Bronze Age sites namely Bodman‐Schachen 1 on Lake Constance, and Arbon‐Bleiche 2 on the Swiss part (the southern shore) of the same lake, follow a similar chronology in occupation; and they were both abandoned in the last decade of the 16th century BC.

A possible cause of abandonment is discussed in this paper using an environmental approach related to an abrupt change of climatic conditions which resulted in an increase of the lake levels which forced those prehistoric populations to leave the proximity of the lake shores. Following the implications of pollen and sedimental analyses, the transformation of the Bronze Age landscape caused by the lake water invasion will be simulated with the help of CAD and GIS computer programs.
Site Finds in Roman Britain: A Comparison of Techniques
Authors: Lockyear Kris
Published: March 2003

This paper compares Reece’s (1995b) method for the comparison of coin lists, outlined in his paper Site Finds in Roman Britain, with two more formal statistical methods: Dmax‐based Cluster Analysis and Correspondence Analysis. Reece’s data from Roman Coins from 140 sites in Britain (1991b) are re‐analysed, the various methods compared, and some preliminary patterns identified.
Gender Wage Gaps in Post‐Reform Rural China
Authors: Rozelle Scott , Dong Xiao‐yuan , Zhang Linxiu , Mason Andrew
Published: March 2003

The present paper examines the impact of market reforms on gender earnings gaps in China’s rural economy using two cross‐sections of data for 1988 and 1995. The results show that the raw gender wage gap was sizeable and predominated by the unexplained part. However, no evidence was found to suggest that the reform policies and market competition led to any measurable increase or decrease in wage discrimination during the period of investigation.
Adoption of new technology by a lagging country: Leapfrogging or no leapfrogging?
Authors: Chen Zhiqi
Published: March 2003

The emergence of a new and superior technology presents a technologically lagging country with an opportunity to leapfrog the leading country. The adoption of new technology, however, does not guarantee that the lagging country will leapfrog the leader. Under certain conditions firms in the lagging country are not able to exploit the full potential of the new technology. Consequently, the adoption only narrows the productivity gap between the two countries. However, the lagging country can ensure leapfrogging by temporarily closing its door to the imports from the leading country.