Modeling road traffic fatalities in Iran’s six most populous provinces, 2015–2016
Authors: Jahanjoo Fatemeh , Sadeghi-Bazargani Homayoun , Asghari-Jafarabadi Mohammad 
Published: November 2022

Background

Prevention of road traffic injuries (RTIs) as a critical public health issue requires coordinated efforts. We aimed to model influential factors related to traffic safety.

Methods

In this cross-sectional study, the information from 384,614 observations recorded in Integrated Road Traffic Injury Registry System (IRTIRS) in a one-year period (March 2015—March 2016) was analyzed. All registered crashes from Tehran, Isfan, Fras, Razavi Khorasan, Khuzestan, and East Azerbaijan provinces, the six most populated provinces in Iran, were included in this study. The variables significantly associated with road traffic fatality in the uni-variate analysis were included in the multiple logistic regression.

Results

According to the multiple logistic regression, thirty-two out of seventy-one different variables were identified to be significantly associated with road traffic fatality. The results showed that the crash scene significantly related factors were passenger presence(OR = 4.95, 95%CI = (4.54–5.40)), pedestrians presence(OR = 2.60, 95%CI = (1.75–3.86)), night-time crashes (OR = 1.64, 95%CI = (1.52–1.76)), rainy weather (OR = 1.32, 95%CI = (1.06–1.64)), no intersection control (OR = 1.40, 95%CI = (1.29–1.51)), double solid line(OR = 2.21, 95%CI = (1.31–3.74)), asphalt roads(OR = 1.95, 95%CI = (1.39–2.73)), nonresidential areas(OR = 2.15, 95%CI = (1.93–2.40)), vulnerable-user presence(OR = 1.70, 95%CI = (1.50–1.92)), human factor (OR = 1.13, 95%CI = (1.03–1.23)), multiple first causes (OR = 2.81, 95%CI = (2.04–3.87)), fatigue as prior cause(OR = 1.48, 95%CI = (1.27–1.72)), irregulation as direct cause(OR = 1.35, 95%CI = (1.20–1.51)), head-on collision(OR = 3.35, 95%CI = (2.85–3.93)), tourist destination(OR = 1.95, 95%CI = (1.69–2.24)), suburban areas(OR = 3.26, 95%CI = (2.65–4.01)), expressway(OR = 1.84, 95%CI = (1.59–2.13)), unpaved shoulders(OR = 1.84, 95%CI = (1.63–2.07)), unseparated roads (OR = 1.40, 95%CI = (1.26–1.56)), multiple road defects(OR = 2.00, 95%CI = (1.67–2.39)). In addition, the vehicle-connected factors were heavy vehicle (OR = 1.40, 95%CI = (1.26–1.56)), dark color (OR = 1.26, 95%CI = (1.17–1.35)), old vehicle(OR = 1.46, 95%CI = (1.27–1.67)), not personal-regional plaques(OR = 2.73, 95%CI = (2.42–3.08)), illegal maneuver(OR = 3.84, 95%CI = (2.72–5.43)). And, driver related factors were non-academic education (OR = 1.58, 95%CI = (1.33–1.88)), low income(OR = 2.48, 95%CI = (1.95–3.15)), old age (OR = 1.67, 95%CI = (1.44–1.94)), unlicensed driving(OR = 3.93, 95%CI = (2.51–6.15)), not-wearing seat belt (OR = 1.55, 95%CI = (1.44–1.67)), unconsciousness (OR = 1.67, 95%CI = (1.44–1.94)), driver misconduct(OR = 2.51, 95%CI = (2.29–2.76)).

Conclusion

This study reveals that driving behavior, infrastructure design, and geometric road factors must be considered to avoid fatal crashes. Our results found that the above-mentioned factors had higher odds of a deadly outcome than their counterparts. Generally, addressing risk factors and considering the odds ratios would be beneficial for policy makers and road safety stakeholders to provide support for compulsory interventions to reduce the severity of RTIs.