bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Annuities-certain at linearly decreasing rates of interest
Authors: Thomas E. M.
Published: August 2016

In practice it is desired occasionally to calculate the value of an annuity-certain at a rate of interest decreasing steadily from the outset. If the rate of interest for the first year is ix and decreases byhper annum throughout the termnof the annuity, the value required is

say, where

This expression is somewhat laborious to evaluate.
The comparison of salary scales
Authors: Bizley M. T. L.
Published: August 2016

In Pension Fund work there arises the problem of determining the cost of a pension dependent upon salary and length of service, and it is often required to ascertain how this cost would be affected if a different salary scale were substituted for that upon the basis of which calculations have already been made. Attention will be confined in this Note to the type of scale most common in practice, namely, the ‘ratio’ scale wherein the successive values form a series of proportional numbers showing the average ratios by which present salaries may be expected to increase from age to age in the future.

We will suppose that the contribution, expressed as ą percentage of salary, is required on one scale when it has been calculated on another scale, or that the various effects of using several possible scales are to be determined. It may happen that the nature of the scales, or to be more precise their relative nature, is such that in order to find a solution to this problem we must consider the effect of the change separately upon the value of the pension benefit and upon the value of a contribution of 1 % of salary; or it may even be necessary to recalculate the required figure on each of the different bases.
Demography
Authors: Jones Elfryn
Published: August 2016

The study of methods of measurement of the rate of population growth is one of the most fundamental aspects of demographic science and one which, from its nature, should be of particular interest to the actuarial profession. It is therefore fitting that this paper should be devoted to a discussion of this side of the subject, particularly in view of the importance which the analysis of population trends has assumed in modern times as the result of the decline in birth-rates experienced by this country in common with most of the leading civilized nations.

Leaving out of account losses and gains by migration, the future development of a given population is determined by the numbers of children that people have, the proportions of these who survive and the sizes of the families which they have in their turn, the cycle continuing indefinitely. Whilst the consequences of changes in mortality must not be underestimated it is clearly the wide possible range of variation in birth-rates which plays by far the more important part in shaping future population trends. The measurement of population growth therefore rests largely on the analysis of fertility, a subject of considerable complexity.
Expense
Authors: Gardner W. F.
Published: August 2016

The work of the actuary is largely made up of the four elements of Mortality, Interest, Taxation and Expense. These form what I shall term the actuary's ‘MITE’, and it is noteworthy that of the four, expense comes both last and least in actuarial literature.

There are many possible reasons for this. Expense is a grim subject and lacks the appeal of the other three. Mortality has its theoretical speculations, its mathematical adventures and sometimes, perhaps, its statistical stumblings. Interest is exciting enough, particularly in our attempts to forecast the yield which a life assurance fund may be expected to earn in the future. Taxation is not very exciting; but it is an intricate subject and all our actuarial ingenuity is sometimes needed to grapple with its problems. Expense, on the other hand, appears simple—at least on the surface; and perhaps its very simplicity is the reason why so little has been written about it. However, it seems to me that the objective analysis of expense is a necessary part of actuarial practice, and I think that it might well figure a little more frequently in our proceedings.
National Economic Statistics
Authors: Cottrell H. C.
Published: August 2016

Actuaries are closely interested in the economic state of the nation, both as ‘scientific financiers’ and as citizens of a democracy, but this interest involves them in a dilemma: although it is possible to obtain only a hazy picture of the whole, even by devoting all of one's time to the study of economic affairs, yet for the majority this subject can be only a sideline. Each actuary must therefore make his own decisions, first as to how much time he can spare, and second as to which aspects of the nation's economy he might most profitably study. These two decisions will depend on the particular actuary's interests and employment, and on the state of the nation's economy at the time.

This paper discusses one selection of economic data, comprehensive enough to give a reliable impression of the nation's economy, yet short enough to permit frequent examination.
Probability—the difficulties of definition.
Authors: Searle S. R.
Published: August 2016

Although the subject of probability is of such vital importance to insurance, no great detailed study was given to it until the sixteenth century. This was nearly two thousand years after the world's first insurance venture, that of Antimenes on behalf of Greek slave-owners against loss of their slaves (the early Greeks had also a good system of marine insurance). As in many fields of study, the early students of probability met with a great deal of opposition, which must have extended well into the nineteenth century, judging from the evidence of de Morgan's book of 1838.
Studies in the recent marriage and fertility data of England and Wales
Authors: Cox P. R.
Published: August 2016

With the appearance of the Report of the Royal Commission on Population and several volumes of ancillary papers, it may seem that the potentialities for fruitful statistical analysis of recent marriage and fertility data in this country have been exhausted, and that little fresh work can usefully be done on them until the extent of the experience has been enlarged by the passage of time.

There is, however, a wide area for statistical investigation that appears not yet to have been completely charted, in spite of the penetrating studies made by those who worked on behalf of the Royal Commission. The available data offer scope for the formulation of new techniques of analysis and presentation, and for examination by approaches different from those made by the Commission's demographers, which had, in the main, the particular purpose of ascertaining whether or not the people of this country are replacing themselves.
Some theoretical aspects of permanent sickness insurance
Authors: Medin Knut
Published: August 2016

This paper deals with some technical and statistical questions in sickness benefit insurance.

In § 1 there is a survey of the various theoretical approaches to the calculation of net premiums, and the calculation of gross premiums is discussed in §2.

Some methods of calculating rates employ two basic functions: the frequencies of new cases of sickness and the duration of sickness. The derivation of these functions from the corresponding statistical data is exemplified in § 3, which contains some results from an account of the experience of a Swedish sickness insurance company. Finally, § 4 deals with some mathematical formulae for graduating data of this type.
France and Great Britain—a demographic comparison
Authors: Cox P. R.
Published: August 2016

Much of the demographic research undertaken in this country is naturally concerned with statistics relating to the British nation. It is very desirable, however, that attention should also be directed abroad. As Prof. J. B. S. Haldane has recently said, ‘any branch of knowledge is improved by a background’; it follows that our understanding of the affairs of our own population can be increased by a study of the numbers and movements of people elsewhere. Theories formed in order to account for occurrences in one country may appear unreasonable when tested in the light of other population data. Alternatively, they may find useful confirmation; a good example is to be seen in W. S. Hocking's article inJ.I.A.on the mortality of males in later middle life. By making international comparisons, not only did the author find valuable supporting evidence for his observations based on British data, but he was enabled to carry his analysis a stage further and examine the effects of differing degrees of industrialization upon the relative levels of male and female mortality.
Aspects of Overseas Life Assurance legislation.
Authors: Finch J. E.
Published: August 2016

The transaction by British offices of life assurance business outside the United Kingdom brings with it problems which have been discussed by W. F. Gardner in his paper to the Institute on ‘Some considerations affecting the transaction of overseas life business’ (J.I.A.
66, 198) and by C. D. Sharp in his paper on ‘British life assurance overseas’ (J.S.S.
9, 2). These papers dealt with the principles to be observed and the practice to be followed in writing life business overseas having regard, inter alia, to local insurance laws. My intention is to consider the laws themselves, to point out some of the differences between them, and to consider to what extent they are consistent with actuarial principles.

To keep the subject within practical limits I shall confine myself to Ordinary branch business in the Commonwealth and Egypt. Furthermore, I shall not consider laws which directly control the relationship between insurer and insured, and between insurer and field staff.
Some Statistical Aspects of Non-Life Insurance
Authors: Beard R. E.
Published: August 2016

When invited to prepare a paper to the Students' Society I had in mind selecting a topic from each of the various branches to illustrate the types of problems that are inherent in non-life business. However, as my ideas took positive shape, I found myself drawn into a more active study of certain aspects which have received little attention in this country, although some considerable theoretical and a limited amount of practical work has been done on the Continent. Instead, therefore, of giving a general description of various features I have largely limited myself to techniques which could be used in practical application and thus endeavoured to bring into relief some problems which indicate the almost unlimited scope for practical and theoretical investigations.

2. Initially the treatment is simplified; I hope that I have succeeded in picking out the spots where intuition rather than formal proof has been my guide, but if I have not I hope my critics will give me latitude in this exploration into largely unexplored territory.
The Preservation of Pension Rights
Authors: Funnell D. , Martin L. J.
Published: August 2016

Following upon the growth in the number of pension funds which has occurred in recent years, employers have become increasingly concerned with the preservation of the pension rights of employees leaving their service to enter that of other employers who may even be competitors. Having accepted the obligation to provide pension benefits for his staff as a whole, an employer must decide to what extent, if any, he wishes to preserve the pension rights of transferring employees. Before reaching his decision, however, he will, if he is wise, seek the guidance of the actuary to the fund, who should be prepared to present the alternative fundamental principles and attitudes open to him. From these should follow his decision as to whether he has an obligation to preserve the pension rights of transferring members of his staff and, if they are to be preserved, how the actuary should make the relevant calculations. Whilst decisions must ultimately rest with the employer, the actuary must be fully conversant with the subject as a whole so that he can give sound advice and be able to make the necessary calculations. It is the actuary's duty to present all sides of any problems which arise in connexion with the scheme and to indicate the consequences which may result from the employer's decisions.
The Further Decline in Spinsterhood.
Authors: Hocking W. S.
Published: August 2016

When the question of the future constitution of the female population of this country as regards marital status was studied about eight years ago, the conclusion was reached (J.S.S.10, 24) that ‘a considerable fall in the number of marriages, to be followed by a consequential fall in the number of births, is almost inevitable during the next few years’. This conclusion was based on the fact that the number of births declined by 20% during the 1920's and this decline was likely to be reflected in the number of marriages about 20 to 25 years later.

In fact, marriages in England and Wales, which averaged about 350,000 a year during 1941–45, rose to 391,000 a year during 1947–49 (which presumably included a number of ‘demobilization’ marriages) and fell only to 356,000 on average during 1950–52, and 348,000 a year during 1953–55, whilst in 1956, the latest year for which figures are available, the marriages numbered 353,000.
Some Thoughts on Annuity Business
Authors: Crook G. C.
Published: August 2016

When closing the discussion on the Finance Act, 1956, at the Sessional Meeting held at the Institute in November 1956, A. G. Simons commented that the Act would take a little while to settle down and really be appreciated, and it was a pity, therefore, that some of the younger members of the Institute had not given their views, because they were the ones who would have to handle it in the future.

If the thoughts expressed in this paper encourage a lively discussion amongst the younger members then it will have achieved its object.
The Riddle of the Aces
Authors: Bizley M. T. L.
Published: August 2016

1. In this note we shall try to unravel a puzzle. It is hoped that the triviality of the subject-matter will not persuade the reader that it is unworthy of his attention; our excuse for offering it is that the underlying principle turns out to be applicable to some very practical situations. In many of these we experience no problem and seem to be on firm ground, as may a man who on a winter's day strays from the common on to the pond, until the ice breaks.

2. By repeatedly presenting theorems that appear intuitively to be unacceptable, a mathematical training is apt to engender distrust in the conclusions of common sense. When the mind has learned to convince itself of the truth of a host of astonishing facts, it hesitates to reject a fresh one however improbable it may seem. This reluctance has an unfortunate consequence, in that the more often the validity of such results is demonstrated, the less the urge is felt to scrutinize a new proof before entering yet another black mark upon the long crime sheet of intuition. Thus, paradoxically, the highly trained expert may sometimes be deceived into accepting a false statement that would be instantly denied by a layman incapable of following its supporting argument. ‘You can't fool me’, boasts the novice, ‘I'm too ignorant.’
Non-Proportional Reinsurance
Authors: Guaschi F. E.
Published: August 2016

The subject of reinsurance has received relatively little treatment in our actuarial literature and indeed the definitive paper on the subject was written by G. T. Foster in 1945. This paper is still the recommended reading for the subject in the Final Examination. Non-proportional reinsurance finds its usual place in the fire and accident departments but for reasons which I hope will become apparent later it is much less common in life assurance. It seems to me that the reason for this is that it is a form of cover unattractive to both parties since it is essentially short term, whereas life assurance offices are concerned with long term liabilities. Nevertheless, since some actuaries may be unfamiliar with the subject chosen for this meeting, I felt that the ground might be better prepared if the subject of life assurance were treated first.

Definitions

It is usual to start with a definition and in this case it is easier to define what is meant by proportional reinsurance, since this is the type of reinsurance most commonly encountered by actuaries.

It may be stated as follows: When a claim arises, the shares of the reinsurer and ceding company are paid in proportions which were fixed in advance. This is a simple and rather obvious statement, and for this very reason it is often overlooked.
V The Verification of Technical Reserves in Non-Life Insurance
Authors: Stewart C. M.
Published: August 2016

The reader of this note will know well the method used in the U.K. for the verification of technical reserves (i.e. the net liability) in life assurance. The net liability must be calculated by a qualified actuary and the methods and bases used must be described in sufficient detail in Schedule 4 of The Insurance Companies (Accounts and Forms) Regulations 1968 for their suitability to be apparent from a careful scrutiny of these and the other financial statistics submitted in accordance with the Regulations. As the data are made public, this scrutiny can be made not only by the Government Actuary in advising the supervisory authorities at the Department of Trade and Industry, but also by any other qualified actuary who cares to do so, which is an equally important discipline. Under this system, the maximum freedom can be allowed to the company and its actuary, but there has hitherto been no equally satisfactory method available for the objective scrutiny of non-life technical reserves. However, the new Claim Frequency Analyses and Claim Settlement Analyses prescribed in Parts II and III of Schedule 3 to the 1968 Regulations should go a long way towards remedying this deficiency. These analyses are to be supplied separately for each class of insurance in each of a company's main markets, and separately for such risk groups within each class as the company decides to be appropriate.
Why N.C.D.
Authors: Bennett M. C.
Published: August 2016

This paper was originally written as a Note for the Institute of Actuaries Students' Society on ‘N.C.D. Systems in Motor Insurance’. This topic was one of nineteen non-life topics on which Notes were requested by the Students' Society in 1973, a different member of the Society being responsible for each topic. The Notes were not expected to give the results of research work along previously unexplored lines. Rather, they were intended as a survey of existing knowledge in each subject—including references to any useful literature—which could be understood by and be of general interest to members of the profession who had little or no experience of non-life work.

Following a request from the Manchester Actuarial Society, it was decided to revise and expand the original Note to make a paper more suited for discussion. No Claim Discount (N.C.D.) is one of the more controversial areas of motor insurance, being a topic on which the motorist is liable to hold strong and emotive views from time to time. As now written the paper takes a critical look at N.C.D. systems, as well as outlining their basic features.
The Rebels’ Credibility Dilemma
Authors: Thomas Jakana L. , Reed William , Wolford Scott
Published: August 2016

This article examines why rebel groups make large demands of governments that are inconsistent with their fighting capacity, especially when such demands are almost always rejected. We show that making large demands, even if ultimately rejected by the government, makes sense for rebels who face a credibility dilemma. Such a dilemma is most likely to arise when militarily weak rebel groups face governments of uncertain strength and can commit to fight credibly only when they believe the government is also weak. This results in a counterintuitive set of strategic incentives for weak rebels, who choose their demands to ensure that they are rejected even when the government is weak. Thus, to make their threat to fight credible, weak rebels make large demands that, when rejected, result in inefficient fighting. Since most civil wars are characterized by weak rebels bargaining with much stronger governments, it is important to understand how this particular feature of civil war shapes intrawar negotiations between the rebels and the government. We develop a model of bargaining between a government and rebel group and evaluate its implications using historical data on civil conflict in Africa from 1989 to 2010. The results suggest that the tendency for the government to be significantly stronger than rebels induces rebel groups to make unrealistically large demands.
Social Control in the Medieval Town
Authors: Thrupp Sylvia L.
Published: August 2016

The power of the church in the medieval town was ever-present and all-pervasive. It operated through the ritual of the sacraments, the jurisdiction of the ecclesiastical courts, the charitable foundations of the orders, through the pictorial teaching on church walls and windows, open-air sermons, public inflictions of penance, the celebration of saints' festivals, and in many other ways. There can be no reasonable doubt that the social teachings of the church, along with its other doctrines, were by one means or another impressed upon every townsman, in so far as he was capable of understanding them.
Economic Validity of the Safety-Valve Doctrine
Authors: Packard Sidney R.
Published: August 2016

The frontier interpretation of American history with which Professor Frederick Jackson Turner captivated and intrigued the observers of American development more than forty years ago still retains its fascination. Professor Turner saw the American frontier as an area in which American society was constantly being rebuilt, each time shaped by special problems: “American social development,” he wrote, “has been continually beginning over again on the frontier.” It was on this theme that Professor Turner based his most striking contention that “The existence of an area of free land, its continuous recession, and the advance of American settlement westward, explain American development.”
An Approach to the Study of Entrepreneurship: A Tribute to Edwin F. Gay
Authors: Cole Arthur H.
Published: August 2016

The first formal meeting of the Economic History Association after This death should not close without appropriate tribute to our initial president and the first real American economic historian, Edwin F. Gay. More than most members of the Association, I feel his loss, since in one capacity or another I had the good fortune to be associated with him for almost thirty-five years. And I am the more appropriate agent to render our common tribute, since, more than others, I am indebted to him. I realize that, without his instruction, encouragement, and stimulation, I should not be standing here as a successor to him in office.
Entrepreneurial Leadership Among the “Robber Barons”: A Trial Balance
Authors: Destler Chester McArthur
Published: August 2016

This paper is concerned with the semipiratical entrepreneurs who roamed the United States virtually unchecked before 1903, save for who the opposition of a few publicists and some short-lived vigilante committees. Contemporaries, following Henry Demarest Lloyd and Carl Schurz, likened businessmen of this type to the nobles who infested the Medieval Rhine. The term “robber barons” has stuck to them through the years despite occasional attempts at rehabilitating one or another who stood out above the throng by virtue of his accumulations or philanthropy. Only recently, for example, Howard Mumford Jones distinguished between the “cruelty” and the “culture” of these magnates whose behavior in the commercial-political and the artistic-literary fields he prefers to liken to the “commercial tyrants” of the Renaissance. No one to date, so far as I know, has attempted to distinguish from their strictly buccaneering activities the permanent contributions made by these businessmen as a group to American business practices. Such is the purpose of this paper.
Technology and the French Glass Industry, 1640–1740
Authors: Scoville Warren C.
Published: August 2016

Industrial expansion depends upon the state of the industrial arts. If we are to explain the rise of “modern industry” we must know precisely what the technological developments were in particular industries during those periods that are recognized as having been extremely important in the development of modern industrial techniques. This study, therefore, deals with the growth, structure, and technology of the French glass industry during a critical period (1640–1740).
Business Cycles, Harvests, and Politics: 1790–1850
Authors: Rostow W. W.
Published: August 2016

You cannot get them to talk of politics when they are well employed.— William Mathews, 1833.

I have observed during the whole time I have been in Lanarkshire that any rise in the rate of discount at the Bank of England has been immediately, or at least shortly, followed by an increase both of crime and of civil suits, and if it continues long, of mortality and typhus fever. So much so, that, as I am an official member of the prison board and of most of the Charities, I have always made it a rule to say … “Gentlemen, the Bank of England have raised their discounts, you had better immediately take measures for enlarging the prison accommodations and for extending the infirmaries and Poor houses.”—A. Alison, Sheriff of Lanarkshire, 1848.
What Is Economic History?
Authors: Nef John U.
Published: August 2016

Sixteen years ago, in happier times, Europe seemed about to become again what she had been to our American parents of the Victorian Age—a rich expanse of industrious and (according to the standards then prevalent) comfortable daily life, ornamented everywhere by monuments emanating from generations of culture, blessed by opportunities for quiet leisure, for travel at what was once considered a rapid pace, and for serious discussions of philosophy and art, such as provided Henry James and Henry Adams with the indispensable nourishment they missed at home. Sixteen years ago, for several weeks on end, I shared to my advantage a table in a modest Basque inn on the French side of the Pyrenees with a distinguished economic historian. In addition to our wives, we had as our companion an elderly professor from a lycée in Bayonne, named Georges Herèlle. We were told that the old gentleman was the greatest authority in France, if not in the world, on the Basque language. He was also the French translator of two writers then prominent, the Spaniard, Blasco Ibáñez, who rose to fame in the United States with Rudolph Valentino riding simultaneously all his “four horsemen,” and the Italian poet, Gabriele d'Annunzio, whose name was known round the world in those prehistoric times before any one had heard of “Mussolini,” let alone of “Hitler.”
Governmental Policy and the Domestic Telegraph Industry
Authors: Goldin H. H.
Published: August 2016

On June 4, 1946, the Federal Communications Commission approved the request of Western Union for an increase in rates. In the same breath the commission declared:

That such increased rates provide no assurance chat the Western Union Telegraph Company will now be able to furnish a rapid, efficient, nation-wide communication service with adequate facilities at reasonable charges, and that serious questions are presented as to the company's ability to continue in operation as a solvent enterprise, providing satisfactory service on a comprehensive nationwide basis, in the absence of some further relief.

A plant that is largely obsolescent, a rate structure requiring thorough overhauling, deteriorated quality of service, high unit labor costs, failure to withstand severe competitive pressures–these are some of the ills that currently beset Western Union. And many of these ills, as I shall indicate, have their origin in the development of the industry over many decades.
Banking in the Early West: Monopoly, Prohibition, and Laissez Faire
Authors: Hammond Bray
Published: August 2016

In 1852 the Secretary of the Treasury reported that there were “no incorporated banks in regular and active operation” in Arkansas, California, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Texas, and Wisconsin—seven of the thirty-one states then in existence—in the District of Columbia, nor in the two organized territories, Minnesota and Oregon. In most of these jurisdictions corporate banking was constitutionally prohibited; in others it was kept out by current opposition. At the same time it was a state-controlled monopoly in Indiana and Missouri, as it was a little later in Iowa. Going to the opposite extreme, Michigan in 1838 made banking free. Her experiment was eventually repeated by Illinois, by Wisconsin, and by Indiana. Meanwhile, there were unincorporated banks throughout the region, though their creation of credit was probably small compared with that of incorporated banks.
Taxation and Landownership in the Westernization of Japan
Authors: Ike Nobutaka
Published: August 2016

Japan's transformation into a modern state began shortly after the middle of the nineteenth century when she was forcibly opened to international trade. In the ensuing years, the old social, economic, and political structure was overhauled to the end that Japan might become a powerful nation able to stand on an equal footing with the more advanced Western nations. Early attention was given to land reform and peasant emancipation since the country was predominantly agricultural, with about four fifths of the population engaged in cultivating the soil. In the early 1870's the prevailing system of servile land tenure was swept away and replaced by a system of private ownership of land. Henceforth, the peasants, who had formerly held land from feudal nobles in return for certain dues and services, were given title to land on which they, as owners, paid a land tax.
The United States and the Economic Development of Puerto Rico
Authors: Perloff Harvey S.
Published: August 2016

Puerto Rico became an insular possession of the United States following the Spanish-American War in 1898. Shortly thereafter the island was brought within the monetary and tariff structures of the United States, and mainland capital began to flow into the island, especially in the form of investments in the sugar industry. These factors were mainly responsible for shaping the Puerto Rican economy and for tying it closely to the economy of the United States.
Electrical Manufacturing Around 1900
Authors: Passer Harold C.
Published: August 2016

During the two decades prior to 1900, electrical manufacturing companies grew from small, single-plant firms, producing only a few items and employing several hundred workers, to large, multiplant organizations, with hundreds of products and thousands of employees. This change in the scale of operations required the invention and application of new organizational forms and new administrative procedures. The men who were responsible for these developments were among the first to recognize and solve the administrative problems of large industrial corporations. The work of these men is the subject of this paper.
Industrial Investment Decisions: A Comparative Analysis
Authors: Aubrey Henry G.
Published: August 2016

In Presenting this paper to an audience of historians I find myself in a painfully ambiguous position. I am not qualified to talk to you as a historian; therefore what I am going to say will lack the richness of empirical detail that usually characterizes historical papers. On the other hand, in order to qualify as “comparative analysis” this paper ought to have a firm theoretical foundation for its analysis, and accepted standards of reference for its comparisons. Unfortunately, the development economists are still at the beginning of their difficult attempts to isolate the factors that make for economic development, and the complex interaction of these factors has so far eluded systematic analysis and presentation.
The Medici Bank Financial and Commercial Operations
Authors: de Roover Raymond
Published: August 2016

According to the articles of association forming the Medici partnerships, the purpose of the banco in Florence and of the branches abroad was “to deal in exchange and in merchandise with the help of God and good fortune.” When we ask just what is meant by dealings in exchange and in merchandise, we are led to examine how the Medici raised the funds with which they operated, to study their role as fiscal agents of the papacy and lessees of the Tolfa alum mines, to consider the technique they used in international banking, and to look into the reasons for their failure. The Medici did not innovate in international banking, they followed existing business practice; but their records are an extremely valuable source of information, if only for the sake of comparison. Let us begin by finding out what is meant by dealings in exchange and then tackle the other problems.
The Statistics of American Commercial Banking, 1782–1818
Authors: Van Fenstermaker J.
Published: August 2016

In spite of its importance to economic development, much remains unknown about commercial banking in early America. The Historical Statistics of the United States gives the number of banks, their capital stock, bank note circulation, deposits, and specie for only four years prior to 1830, and these data are far from complete. Economic and financial historians generalize about this period from statistics presented in Albert Gallatin's Considerations on the Currency of the United States and from the reports of the Treasury Department, summarized in the Annual Report of the Comptroller of the Currency, 1876.
The Growth of Manufacturing in Early Nineteenth-Century New England
Authors: Zevin Robert Brooke
Published: August 2016

My thesis examines the process of industrialization in nineteenthcentury New England before the Civil War. I have attempted to achieve three principal objectives: first, the purely descriptive task of beginning to fill our present vacuum of detailed information on the American economy before 1840; second, to test the specific hypothesis that New England and perhaps other American regions would exhibit concentrated spurts of industrial output similar to those which characterized the emergence of modern economies in nineteenth-century Europe; third, to construct an explanation of the forces which determined the particular course of development which was observed.
Unbalance in Demand and Supply, and Input-Provision Capital Formation: Brazil, 1920–1951
Authors: Pelaez Carlos Manuel
Published: August 2016

The thesis of this essay is that the industrial development of Brazil, 1920–1951, was unbalanced in demand and supply and characterized by input-provision capital formation. Part I introduces an analytical framework. Part II consists of preliminary historical evidence supporting the framework.
Mechanizing the Cotton Harvest in the Nineteenth-Century South
Authors: Fleisig Heywood
Published: August 2016

A persistent problem in American economic history is the explanation of the failure of the South to mechanize cotton production. Summarily, the following argues that the failure to mechanize was due to a southern economic structure which operated to reduce the effectiveness of the factors in society conducive to invention and innovation.
American Development Policy: The Case of Internal Improvements
Authors: Goodrich Carter
Published: August 2016

The subject I should like to discuss grows directly out of the theme of the meetings as a whole. They have been concerned with the American West as an Underdeveloped Region, and the title was intended to suggest the analogy between the United States of an earlier period and the so-called underdeveloped nations of the present day. To many it would suggest a contrast in policy. These other nations are now in many cases striving to achieve economic development by national planning and deliberate measures of governmental policy. On the other hand the United States achieved its massive economic development without over-all economic planning, without five-year plans or explicit national targets of input and output, and—it is sometimes believed—without the adoption of policies deliberately intended to promote development.
National Policy and Western Development in North America
Authors: Fowke Vernon C.
Published: August 2016

The general theme of these discussions calls for a reinterpretation of the West as an underdeveloped region. This lends credence to a hypothesis occasionally encountered that history is comprised of the examination of a succession of conceptual anachronisms devised in each case by the historian's generation for the solution of contemporary problems and applied as an afterthought to the reconstruction of the past. The adoption of the concept of underdevelopment in die present circumstance is in line with this hypothesis and is, in this regard, in good company with well-worn frames of reference utilized by earlier generations of North American economic historians. Turner advanced the frontier thesis as a tool of analysis of the past at a time when major concern was arising over the frontier's disappearance. Innis fashioned the staple-trade approach to Canadian economic development in the interwar years when for a time it appeared that Canadian prosperity and material advance had vanished coincidentally with the mortal illness of the last great Canadian staple, wheat.
“Profits” and the Frontier Land Speculator
Authors: Bogue Allan G. , Bogue Margaret Beattie
Published: August 2016

From the days of the confederation through the nineteenth century, the frontier land speculator was a familiar figure in the United States. Perambulating foreigners recorded the activities of this gentleman, and land speculation was discussed in both Congress and in the editorial columns of Western newspapers. Many twentieth-century students of America's political and economic development have dealt in one way or another with frontier land speculation. They have depicted the land speculator at times as a sinister figure, corroding the morals of national or state legislators as the lawmakers endeavored to formulate land policy. Writers have sketched the antagonism between speculator and “actual settler.” Nor have they ignored the effect which the speculator had upon the social and economic development of the region in which he operated. Such commentators have contributed to a literature that has its share of colorful characters and even displays the occasional symbol: star-crossed Robert Morris entering debtors'
Growth Deterrents of a Medieval Heritage: The Aachen-area Woolen Trades before 1790
Authors: Kisch Herbert
Published: August 2016

The material progress of an area, large or small, depends upon its adaptability in facing up to the continuous pressures exerted the world economy. What determines such flexibility remains as yet, despite recent research on this matter, an open question. This investigation of the Aachen-area woolen trades provides no new answer. All it pretends to do is to stress those strategic aspects of the institutional setting which, by their influence upon demand and supply conditions, point to some of the issues that might have relevance for an understanding of this important problem.
Agricultural Productivity and Economic Growth in England, 1700–1760
Authors: John A. H.
Published: August 2016

The rise in productivity described by Dr. Jones, coupled with a static population, brought to an end the upward movement in the relative prices of farm products which had characterized the one hundred forty years preceding the Restoration. With the passing of the lean years, there followed almost a century of comparative plenty, bringing an increasing flow of food and raw materials.
Continuity in Economic Activity and Policy during the Post-Petrine Period in Russia
Authors: Kahan Arcadius
Published: August 2016

To discuss economic activity in Russia of the eighteenth century is to deal with an economic and social order that antedates the age of industrialization. Industrial activity in Russia during the eighteenth century was carried on within the political framework of an autocratic state, with ill-defined norms of legal behavior, and against the background of a serf agriculture which reached its apogee during this very period. The state of the industrial arts was low in comparison with western European standards, and the use of waterpower as a motive force in manufactories was introduced in Russia by foreign entrepreneurs only in the seventeenth century. Against this background, the efforts by Peter the Great (reigned 1682–1725) to modernize Russia appear genuinely heroic. The demands of his policy forced the government to engage directly in a vast program of establishing new industries, of converting small handicraft workshops into large-scale manufactories, and of encouraging private entrepreneurs to follow the government's example.
The Labor Force in Meiji Economic Growth: A Quantitative Study of Yamanashi Prefecture
Authors: Tussing Arlon
Published: August 2016

Economic development and “modernization” have certain universal consequences for the structure and organization of the labor force. The history of each advanced country shows a shift of population out of agriculture and the replacement of family enterprise and particularistic employment relationships by large enterprise and wage labor. But the pace and completeness of these inevitable changes have varied widely among different countries.
American Historians and the Business Elite
Authors: Miller William
Published: August 2016

One might have supposed that historians, largely occupied as they have been with the activities of ruling classes, would have been among the first to study systematically the problem of the recruitment and tenure of elites. This problem is an especially interesting one in a country such as the United States which has had no official caste systems and no legally established hereditary hierarchies. Yet most American historians have shied away from it. Few of them have even raised questions about the locus and transmission of power or status in modern times. Moreover, those who have discussed in particular the ascent of nineteenth- and early twentieth-century business leaders have tended to attribute their success simply to the possession of more shrewdness or trickiness or more pluck or luck or other private qualities than competitors who failed to rise; the very few historians who have considered social determinants such as family background or work experience have, by stressing the alleged values of poverty or of starting business in boyhood, placed their emphasis, as we shall see, quite at the opposite pole from where it belongs.
The Influence of British Capital on the Western Range-Cattle Industry
Authors: Brayer Herbert O.
Published: August 2016

It is my purpose in this paper to sketch briefly one heretofore ignored facet in American economic history: the influence of British capital, knowledge, and livestock in the growth, development, and eventual decline of the Western range-cattle industry during that colorful, though all too frequently disastrous, period between the American Civil War and the end of the century. Although the locale of this story would seem to confine its interest and importance largely to the West, it was, in fact, an incident of profound national and international importance. It filled the press of the United States with glowing descriptions of great baronial estates teeming with hundreds of thousands of head of cattle; it brought about long articles of analysis, praise, sharp criticism, and denunciation in the British press; it resulted in an internationalbattle of words involving at least three American secretaries of agriculture, presidents of the Board of Trade, ministers of agriculture, and chancellors of the exchequer. There were rude questions in the House of Commons and pointed inquiries in Lords. There were even letters to The Times!
Agricultural Conditions in the Northern Colonies Before the Revolution
Authors: Sachs William S.
Published: August 2016

Many writers treating the late colonial period have touched uponthe subject of economic fluctuations, but no agreement is found as to the duration, intensity, and amplitude of these alterations of good and bad times. Nor has any investigation as yet assembled all the available data necessary to an understanding of this phenomenon. Since agriculture constituted an important aspect of the colonial economy, some light may be shed upon these economic vicissitudes by an examination of Northern agricultural conditions in the two decades preceding the Revolution.
The Role of the State in Shaping Things Economic
Authors: Spengler Joseph J.
Published: August 2016

I Have found it necessary to deal speculatively rather than historically with the subject assigned to me. The assembly and the organization of facts presuppose principles of organization and criteria of relevancy. As yet these have not been formulated. Until this lack is repaired, therefore, speculation is bound to swamp history.
Land Policy and Its Relation to Agricultural Production and Distribution, 1862 to 1933
Authors: Saloutos Theodore
Published: August 2016

If by land policy we mean a comprehensive, well-thought-out plan that made for an efficient long-range use of our agricultural resources, we are reasonably safe in saying we had none. If we had anything that came close to resembling a policy, it was that of throwing open vast quantities of public and private lands to cultivation which resulted in maladjustments that made it difficult, if not impossible, for many farmers to adjust themselves to capitalistic methods of production and distribution. The extent of these maladjustments may be gauged in part by observing the status of agriculture on the eve of the New Deal. Shrinking foreign markets, world-wide competition, rising tariff walls, poor farm management practices, and excessive production and distribution costs were accompanied by sharp increases in indebtedness, farm foreclosures, and tenancy. Agriculture was receiving a dwindling share of the national income, capital formation was being discouraged, and farming had been relegated to a subordinate position within the economy.
Land Policy in the Spanish Southwest, 1846–1891: A Study in Contrasts
Authors: Lamar Howard R.
Published: August 2016

In Choosing to discuss land policy in that part of the Spanish Southwest which comprises present central and northern New Mexico and most of southern Colorado, I would appear to be using a model area of the West to demonstrate once again that the Homestead Act and principle were unworkable. In actuality the purpose is to note generally what can happen when an American land system runs into an older and highly different Spanish-Mexican one. As Howard W. Odum has observed, “Here two great culture systems have met and clashed and fused and are still in process of clashing and fusing.”
The Impact of Technological Change on American Agriculture, 1862–1962
Authors: Rasmussen Wayne D.
Published: August 2016

Two revolutions in American agriculture reflect the impact of technological change on farming during the past century. The first revolution saw the change from manpower to animal power, and centered about the Civil War. The second revolution saw the change from animal power to mechanical power and the adaptation of chemistry to agricultural production. It centered around the post-World War II period. The transition from animal power to mechanical power is virtually complete. In 1962, the Statistical Reporting Service of the United States Department of Agriculture discontinued reporting the number of horses and mules on farms. They were no longer of significance to farm production.