bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Numerical wind wave model with a dynamic boundary layer
Authors: Polnikov V. G. , Volkov Y. A. , Pogarskii F. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A modern version of a numerical wind wave model of the fourth generation is constructed for a case of deep water. The following specific terms of the model source function are used: (a) a new analytic parameterization of the nonlinear evolution term proposed recently in Zakharov and Pushkarev (1999); (b) a traditional input term added by the routine for an atmospheric boundary layer fitting to a wind wave state according to Makin and Kudryavtsev (1999); (c) a dissipative term of the second power in a wind wave spectrum according to Polnikov (1991). The direct fetch testing results showed an adequate description of the main empirical wave evolution effects. Besides, the model gives a correct description of the boundary layer parameters' evolution, depending on a wind wave stage of development. This permits one to give a physical treatment of the dependence mentioned. These performances of the model allow one to use it both for application and for investigation aims in the task of the joint description of wind and wave fields.
Chaos in magnetospheric radio emissions
Authors: Chian A. C.-L. , Rempel E. L. , Borotto F. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A three-wave model of auroral radio emissions near the electron plasma frequency was proposed by Chian et al. (1994) involving resonant interactions of Langmuir, whistler and Alfvén waves. Chaos can occur in the nonlinear evolution of this three-wave process in the magnetosphere. In particular, two types of intermittency, due to either local or global bifurcations, can be observed. We analyze the type-I Pomeau-Manneville intermittency, arising from a saddle-node bifurcation, and the crisis-induced intermittency, arising from an interior crisis associated with a global bifurcation. Examples of time series, power spectrum, phase-space trajectory for both types of intermittency are presented through computer simulations. The degree of chaoticity of this three-wave process is characterized by calculating the maximum Lyapunov exponent. We suggest that the intermit-tent phenomena discussed in this paper may be observed in the temporal signal of magnetospheric radio emissions.
A simple model for the earthquake cycle combining self-organized complexity with critical point behavior
Authors: Newman W. I. , Turcotte D. L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We have studied a hybrid model combining the forest-fire model with the site-percolation model in order to better understand the earthquake cycle. We consider a square array of sites. At each time step, a "tree" is dropped on a randomly chosen site and is planted if the site is unoccupied. When a cluster of "trees" spans the site (a percolating cluster), all the trees in the cluster are removed ("burned") in a "fire." The removal of the cluster is analogous to a characteristic earthquake and planting "trees" is analogous to increasing the regional stress. The clusters are analogous to the metastable regions of a fault over which an earthquake rupture can propagate once triggered. We find that the frequency-area statistics of the metastable regions are power-law with a negative exponent of two (as in the forest-fire model). This is analogous to the Gutenberg-Richter distribution of seismicity. This "self-organized critical behavior" can be explained in terms of an inverse cascade of clusters. Small clusters of "trees" coalesce to form larger clusters. Individual trees move from small to larger clusters until they are destroyed. This inverse cascade of clusters is self-similar and the power-law distribution of cluster sizes has been shown to have an exponent of two. We have quantified the forecasting of the spanning fires using error diagrams. The assumption that "fires" (earthquakes) are quasi-periodic has moderate predictability. The density of trees gives an improved degree of predictability, while the size of the largest cluster of trees provides a substantial improvement in forecasting a "fire."
Dromion solutions for nonlinear electron acoustic waves in space plasmas
Authors: Ghosh S. S. , Sen A. , Lakhina G. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Recent high resolution measurements of POLAR and FAST satellites have revealed two-dimensional coherent structures in the polar cap boundary layer (PCBL) region. Since the ion temperature is often observed to be greater than the electron temperature in this region, electron acoustic waves can exist as a normal mode of the plasma system. It is shown that the nonlinear evolution of such waves can be modelled by the coupled Davey-Stewartson I equations. These equations, which are a generalization of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation to two dimensions, admit exponentially localized solutions called dromions. A detailed parametric characterization of the regions of existence of such solutions is presented in the context of the PCBL region.
Neural-network-based prediction techniques for single station modeling and regional mapping of the foF2 and M(3000)F2 ionospheric characteristics
Authors: Xenos T. D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this work, Neural-Network-based single-station hourly daily foF2 and M(3000)F2 modelling of 15 European ionospheric stations is investigated. The data used are neural networks and hourly daily values from the period 1964- 1988 for training the neural networks and from the period 1989-1994 for checking the prediction accuracy. Two types of models are presented for the F2-layer critical frequency prediction and two for the propagation factor M(3000)F2. The first foF2 model employs the E-layer local noon calculated daily critical frequency (foE12) and the local noon F2- layer critical frequency of the previous day. The second foF2 model, which introduces a new regional mapping technique, employs the Juliusruh neural network model and uses the E-layer local noon calculated daily critical frequency (foE12), and the previous day F2-layer critical frequency measured at Juliusruh at noon. The first M(3000)F2 model employs the E-layer local noon calculated daily critical frequency (foE12), its ± 3 h deviations and the local noon cosine of the solar zenith angle (cos c12). The second model, which introduces a new M(3000)F2 mapping technique, employs Juliusruh neural network model and uses the E-layer local noon calculated daily critical frequency (foE12), and the previous day F2-layer critical frequency measured at Juliusruh at noon.
Long waves over a bi-viscous seabed: transverse patterns
Authors: Becker J. M. , Bercovici D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The coupled interaction of long standing hydrodynamic waves with a deformable non-Newtonian seabed is examined using a two-layer model for which the upper layer fluid is inviscid and the lower layer is bi-viscous. The two-dimensional response of the system to forcing by a predominantly longitudinal (cross-shore) standing wave perturbed by a small transverse (along-shore) component is determined. With a constant yield stress in the bi-viscous lower layer, there is little amplification of these transverse per-turbations and the model response typically remains quasi-one-dimensional. However, for a bi-viscous layer with a pressure-dependent yield stress (which represents the effect that the seabed deforms less readily under compression and hence renders the rheology history dependent), the initially small transverse motions are amplified in some parameter regimes and two-dimensional, permanent bedforms are formed in the lower layer. This simple dynamical model is, therefore, able to explain the formation of permanent bedforms with significant cross- and along-shore features by predominantly cross-shore standing wave forcing.
Nonlinear waves and solitons propagating perpendicular to the magnetic field in bi-ion plasma with finite plasma pressure
Authors: Dubinin E. M. , Sauer K. , McKenzie J. F. , Chanteur G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We investigate the nature of nonlinear waves propagating transverse to the magnetic field in a bi-ion plasma including plasma pressure. By using the conservation laws derived from the multi-ion fluid equations the system may be described by a single order differential equation whose properties control the structure of the flow and the magnetic field. Compressive solitons exist in specific ranges of the characteristic Mach numbers. Various features of solitons differ in different existence "windows". For example, there are solitons that contain a strong proton rarefaction core embedded in the main compressional structure. Compressive solitons are found in a wide range of flow parameters. Finite ion pressure introduces critical Mach numbers. In contrast to a plasma consisting only of protons and electrons these singular points are reached where a specific combination of ion and electron speeds lies on particular locii, in multi-parameter space, which corresponds to the generalized "sonic point" of the compound system.
The reliability of grazing rate estimates from dilution experiments: Have we over-estimated rates of organic carbon consumption by microzooplankton?
Authors: Dolan, J. R. , McKeon K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. According to a recent global analysis, microzooplankton grazing is surprisingly invariant, ranging only between 59 and 74% of phytoplankton primary production across systems differing in seasonality, trophic status, latitude, or salinity. Thus an important biological process in the world ocean, the daily consumption of recently fixed carbon, appears nearly constant. We believe this conclusion is an artefact because dilution experiments are 1) prone to providing over-estimates of grazing rates and 2) unlikely to furnish evidence of low grazing rates. In our view the overall average rate of microzooplankton grazing probably does not exceed 50% of primary production and may be even lower in oligotrophic systems.
El Niño in a changing climate: a multi-model study
Authors: van Oldenborgh G. J. , Philip S. Y. , Collins M
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In many parts of the world, climate projections for the next century depend on potential changes in the properties of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The current staus of these projections is assessed by examining a large set of climate model experiments prepared for the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Firstly, the patterns and time series of present-day ENSO-like model variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean are compared with that observed. Next, the strength of the coupled atmosphere-ocean feedback loops responsible for generating the ENSO cycle in the models are evaluated. Finally, we consider the projections of the models with, what we consider to be, the most realistic ENSO variability. Two of the models considered do not have interannual variability in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Three models show a very regular ENSO cycle due to a strong local wind feedback in the central Pacific and weak sea surface temperature (SST) damping. Six other models have a higher frequency ENSO cycle than observed due to a weak east Pacific upwelling feedback loop. One model has much stronger upwelling feedback than observed, and another one cannot be described simply by the analysis technique. The remaining six models have a reasonable balance of feedback mechanisms and in four of these the interannual mode also resembles the observed ENSO both spatially and temporally. Over the period 2051-2100 (under various scenarios) the most realistic six models show either no change in the mean state or a slight shift towards El Niño-like conditions with an amplitude at most a quarter of the present day interannual standard deviation. We see no statistically significant changes in amplitude of ENSO variability in the future, with changes in the standard deviation of a Southern Oscillation Index that are no larger than observed decadal variations. Uncertainties in the skewness of the variability are too large to make any statements about the future relative strength of El Niño and La Niña events. Based on this analysis of the multi-model ensemble, we expect very little influence of global warming on ENSO.
Atmospheric forcing by ALADIN/MFSTEP and MFSTEP oriented tunings
Authors: Brožková R. , Derková M. , Belluš M. , Farda A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. ALADIN/MFSTEP is a configuration of the numerical weather prediction (NWP) model ALADIN run in a dedicated real-time mode for the purposes of the MFSTEP Project. A special attention was paid to the quality of atmospheric fluxes used for the forcing of fine-scale oceanographic models. This paper describes the novelties applied in ALADIN/MFSTEP initiated by the MFSTEP demands, leading also to improvements in general weather forecasting.
Simulating biomass assimilation in a Mediterranean ecosystem model using SOFA: setup and identical twin experiments
Authors: Crispi G. , Pacciaroni M. , Viezzoli D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Assessing the potential improvement of basin scale ecosystem forecasting for the Mediterranean Sea requires biochemical data assimilation techniques. To this aim, a feasibility study of surface biomass assimilation is performed following an identical twin experiment approach. NPZD ecosystem data generator, embedded in one eighth degree general circulation model, is integrated with the reduced-order optimal interpolation System for Ocean Forecasting and Analysis. The synthetic "sea-truth" data are winter daily averages obtained from the control run (CR). The twin experiments consist in performing two runs: the free run (FR) with summer-depleted phytoplankton initial conditions and the assimilated run (AR), in which, starting from the same FR phytoplankton concentrations, weekly surface biomasses averaged from the CR data are assimilated. The FR and AR initial conditions modify the winter bloom state of the phytoplankton all over the basin and reduce the total nitrogen, i.e. the energy of the biochemical ecosystem. The results of this feasibility study shows good performance of the system in the case of phytoplankton, zooplankton, detritus and surface inorganic nitrogen. The weak results in the case of basin inorganic nitrogen and total nitrogen, the latter nonperformant at surface, are discussed.
Tropical extra-tropical thermocline water mass exchanges in the Community Climate Model v.3 Part I: the Atlantic Ocean
Authors: Wainer I. , Lazar A. , Solomon A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The climatological annual mean tropical-extra-tropical pathways of thermocline waters in the Atlantic Ocean are investigated with the NCAR CCSM numerical coupled model. Results from three numerical experiments are analyzed: Two are fully coupled runs with different spatial resolution (T42 and T85) for the atmospheric component. The third numerical experiment is an ocean-only run forced by NCEP winds and fluxes. Results show that the different atmospheric resolutions have a significant impact on the subduction pathways in the Atlantic because of how the wind field is represented. These simulation results also show that the water subducted at the subtropics reaching the EUC is entirely from the South Atlantic. The coupled model ability to simulate the STCs is discussed.
Analysis of the circulation and shelf-slope exchanges in the continental margin of the northwestern Mediterranean
Authors: Jordi A. , Basterretxea G. , Orfila A. , Tintoré J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper, we present the results from a high horizontal resolution numerical simulation of the northwestern Mediterranean using a z-level, non-hydrostatic, primitive equation ocean model (DieCAST). The high resolution allows an accurate representation of the submarine canyons that presides in the region. The model is one-way coupled to a large scale model of the Mediterranean Sea through open boundaries and uses the atmospheric forcing fields provided in terms of HIRLAM outputs by the Spanish National Institute of Meteorology. Results show that the model can successfully reproduce the complex general circulation characteristics of the area, including the modifications induced by canyons in their vicinity and other phenomena observed such as instabilities and coastal trapped waves. The sea surface temperature is similar to satellite observations except that simulated temperatures are slightly warmer near the coast than observations and colder near the open boundaries. An important topic of this work is the computation of the shelf-slope exchanges, which are able to renew shelf waters in a few months.
Detecting changes in Labrador Sea Water through a water mass analysis of BATS data
Authors: Henry-Edwards A. , Tomczak M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A new water mass analysis technique is used to analyse the BATS oceanographic data set in the Sargasso Sea of 1988–1998 for changes in Labrador Sea Water (LSW) properties. The technique is based on a sequential quadratic programming method and requires careful definition of constraints to produce reliable results. Variations in LSW temperature and salinity observed in the Labrador Sea are used to define the constraints. It is shown that to minimize the residuals while matching the observed temperature and salinity changes in the source region the nitrate concentration in the Labrador Sea has to be allowed to vary as well. It is concluded that during the period of investigation nitrate underwent significant variations in the Labrador Sea.
Mechanisms controlling primary and new production in a global ecosystem model – Part I: Validation of the biological simulation
Authors: Popova E. E. , Coward A. C. , Nurser G. A. , de Cuevas B. , Fasham M. J. R. , Anderson T. R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A global general circulation model coupled to a simple six-compartment ecosystem model is used to study the extent to which global variability in primary and export production can be realistically predicted on the basis of advanced parameterizations of upper mixed layer physics, without recourse to introducing extra complexity in model biology. The "K profile parameterization" (KPP) scheme employed, combined with 6-hourly external forcing, is able to capture short-term periodic and episodic events such as diurnal cycling and storm-induced deepening. The model realistically reproduces various features of global ecosystem dynamics that have been problematic in previous global modelling studies, using a single generic parameter set. The realistic simulation of deep convection in the North Atlantic, and lack of it in the North Pacific and Southern Oceans, leads to good predictions of chlorophyll and primary production in these contrasting areas. Realistic levels of primary production are predicted in the oligotrophic gyres due to high frequency external forcing of the upper mixed layer (accompanying paper Popova et al., 2006) and novel parameterizations of zooplankton excretion. Good agreement is shown between model and observations at various JGOFS time series sites: BATS, KERFIX, Papa and HOT. One exception is the northern North Atlantic where lower grazing rates are needed, perhaps related to the dominance of mesozooplankton there. The model is therefore not globally robust in the sense that additional parameterizations are needed to realistically simulate ecosystem dynamics in the North Atlantic. Nevertheless, the work emphasises the need to pay particular attention to the parameterization of mixed layer physics in global ocean ecosystem modelling as a prerequisite to increasing the complexity of ecosystem models.
Transformation of Levantine Intermediate Water tracked by MEDARGO floats in the Western Mediterranean
Authors: Emelianov M. , Font J. , Turiel A. , Millot C. , Solé J. , Poulain P.-M. , Julià A. , Vitrià M.-R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A clustering methodology is applied to investigate the thermohaline structure of Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) in the western Mediterranean basin. Sixteen free-drifting hydrographic profilers were deployed in the framework of the MFSTEP project (MEDARGO component) from September 2003. A total of 925 CTD profiles collected up to the beginning of February 2006 have been used in the analysis. The results are in good agreement with the general circulation scheme for intermediate waters in the basin and confirm the hypothesis about a "discrete-continuous" thermohaline structure of LIW.
On the representation of regional characteristics by hydrographic measurements at central stations in four deep basins of the Baltic Sea
Authors: Reissmann J. H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this work the eddy resolving data sets of salinity, temperature, and oxygen content aquired in the framework of the German-Russian project MESODYN (MESOscale DYNamics) in the Arkona Basin, the Bornholm Basin, the Stolpe Furrow, and the Eastern Gotland Basin during summer and winter stratification situations are utilized to examine to which extent the observations at the central monitoring stations within these basins are representative for the spatial mean state of the corresponding region with respect to comparative monitoring purposes of the whole Baltic Sea. The investigation covers profiles of salinity, potential temperature, oxygen content, potential density, and squared buoyancy or Brunt-Väisälä frequency. Moreover, some parameters of the halocline, namely its depth, thickness, and upper and lower boundaries, and the first baroclinic Rossby radii are subject to the investigation. The profiles match best for the squared buoyancy or Brunt-Väisälä frequency. The profiles of salinity match best in the Eastern Gotland Basin and worst in the Arkona Basin both for summer and winter stratification situations. The overall agreement for the halocline parameters is good. The baroclinic Rossby radii match their spatial mean values well, if the depth range considered for their calculation is restricted to the mean depth in each region at the bottom side. In doing so they also match the spatial mean values of the first baroclinic Rossby radii calculated considering the whole depth range at each station. Overall, the regional characteristics of the investigated quantities and parameters are represented well by the hydrographic measurements at the central stations in the four regions in spite of some significant differences between the spatial mean states and the observations at the central stations. In particular, the observations at the central stations seem to be usefull for comparisons between these regions. However, the observed differences may affect regional investigations covering just a single region.
Distribution of overwintering Calanus in the North Norwegian Sea
Authors: Edvardsen A. , Pedersen J. M. , Slagstad D. , Semenova T. , Timonin A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. During winter 2003 and 2004, zooplankton and hydrographic data were collected in the northern parts of the Norwegian Sea (68–72° N, 8–17° E) west of the Norwegian shelf break at depths down to 1800 m. The results cover both inter and intra annual changes of hydrography and distribution of Calanus spp. For the whole survey area, average seawater temperature down to 1000 m was higher in 2004 than in the same period in 2003. For the upper 500 m the difference was ca. 1°C. Calanus finmarchicus dominated at ca. 75% of the total copepod abundance. Typical abundance of C. finmarchicus in the survey area was 30 000–40 000 m−2. C. hyperboreus was found deeper than C. finmarchicus while other copepods were found at the depth of C. finmarchicus or shallower. From January to February 2004, the peak of abundance of C. finmarchicus and C. hyperboreus shifted approximately 300 m upwards indicating that ascent from overwintering depth took place at a speed of 10 m d−1 during this period. In general, high abundance of copepods was found adjacent to the shelf slope while oceanic areas had low and intermediate abundance. In the southern part of the survey area, location of high and low copepod abundance shifted both between and within years. In the northern part of the survey area where the shelf slope is less steep, copepods was present at intermediate and high abundance during all surveys.
Three decades of research on the greater Agulhas Current
Authors: Lutjeharms J. R. E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The greater Agulhas Current has been shown to be a key link in the global thermohaline circulation and an increased understanding of this current system is therefore of more than just local interest. Knowledge on the Agulhas Current system has in fact increased enormously over the past 30 years. This review covers some aspects of what has been learnt on the northern and the southern parts of the Agulhas Current proper and their influence on the waters and circulation of the adjoining continental shelf. It also discusses the Natal Pulse and new information that has been gained on how it is triggered and what influence it has. It deals with the Agulhas retroflection, the shedding of Agulhas rings and the movement and characteristics of these rings that contributes to the meridional overturning circulation of the global ocean. The Agulhas Return Current forms part of the final outflow of the system and current knowledge on that current is appraised. The sources of the Agulhas Current have been a controversial subject for many years and this dispute continues. This is described and discussed, based on what information has been gained from research over the past three decades. Building on what is currently known, some suggestions are given on the most important remaining knowledge gaps and how these could most efficaciously be filled.
Physical response of the coastal ocean to Hurricane Isabel near landfall
Authors: Bingham F. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Hurricane Isabel made landfall near Drum Inlet, North Carolina on 18 September 2003. In nearby Onslow Bay an array of 5 moorings captured the response of the coastal ocean to the passage of the storm by measuring currents, surface waves, bottom pressure, temperature and salinity. Temperatures across the continental shelf decreased by 1–3°C, consistent with a surface heat flux estimate of 750 W/m2. Salinity decreased at most mooring locations. A calculation at one of the moorings estimates rainfall of 11 cm and a net addition of fresh water at the surface of 8 cm. The low-pass current field shows a shelf-wide movement of water, first to the southwest, with an abrupt reversal to the northeast along the shelf after landfall. Close analysis of this reversal shows it to be a disturbance propagating offshore at a speed somewhat less than the local shallow water wave speed. The high-pass current field at one of the moorings shows a significant increase in kinetic energy at periods between 10 min and 2 h during the approach of the storm. This high-pass flow is isotropic and has a short (<5 m) vertical decorrelation scale. It appears to be closely associated with the winds, Finally we examined the surface wave field at one of the moorings. It shows the swell energy peaking well before the wind waves. At the height of the storm, as the winds rotated rapidly in the cyclonic sense, the wind wave direction rotated as well, with a lag of 45–90°.
Overturning cells in the Southern Ocean and subtropical gyres
Authors: Polton J. A. , Marshall D. P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The circulation of the subtropical gyres can be decomposed into a horizontal recirculation along contours of constant Bernoulli potential and an overturning circulation across these contours. While the geometry and topology of Bernoulli contours is more complicated in the subtropical gyres than in the Southern Ocean, these subtropical overturning circulations are very much analogous to the overturning cell found in the Southern Ocean. This analogy is formalised through an exact integral constraint, including the rectified effects of transient eddies. The constraint can be interpreted either in terms of vertical fluxes of potential vorticity, or equivalently as an integral buoyancy budget for an imaginary fluid parcel recirculating around a closed Bernoulli contour. Under conditions of vanishing buoyancy and mechanical forcing, the constraint reduces to a generalised non-acceleration condition, under which the Eulerian-mean and eddy-induced overturning circulations exactly compensate. The terms in the integral constraint are diagnosed in an eddy-permitting ocean model in both the North Pacific subtropical gyre and the Southern Ocean. The extent to which the Eulerian-mean and eddy-induced overturning circulations compensate is discussed in each case.
An observing system for the collection of fishery and oceanographic data
Authors: Falco P. , Belardinelli A. , Santojanni A. , Cingolani N. , Russo A. , Arneri E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Fishery Observing System (FOS) was developed as a first and basic step towards fish stock abundance nowcasting/forecasting within the framework of the EU research program Mediterranean Forecasting System: Toward an Environmental Prediction (MFSTEP). The study of the relationship between abundance and environmental parameters also represents a crucial point towards forecasting. Eight fishing vessels were progressively equipped with FOS instrumentation to collect fishery and oceanographic data. The vessels belonged to different harbours of the Central and Northern Adriatic Sea. For this pilot application, anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus, L.) was chosen as the target species. Geo-referenced catch data, associated with in-situ temperature and depth, were the FOS products but other parameters were associated with catch data as well. MFSTEP numerical circulation models provide many of these data. In particular, salinity was extracted from re-analysis data of numerical circulation models. Satellite-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll were also used as independent variables. Catch and effort data were used to estimate an abundance index (CPUE – Catch per Unit of Effort). Considering that catch records were gathered by different fishing vessels with different technical characteristics and operating on different fish densities, a standardized value of CPUE was calculated. A spatial and temporal average CPUE map was obtained together with a monthly mean time series in order to characterise the variability of anchovy abundance during the period of observation (October 2003–August 2005). In order to study the relationship between abundance and oceanographic parameters, Generalized Additive Models (GAM) were used. Preliminary results revealed a complex scenario: the southern sector of the domain is characterised by a stronger relationship than the central and northern sector where the interactions between the environment and the anchovy distribution are hidden by a higher percentage of variability within the system which is still unexplained. GAM analysis showed that increasing the number of explanatory variables also increased the portion of variance explained by the model. Data exchange and interdisciplinary efforts will therefore be crucial for the success of this research activity.
Simulations of ARGO profilers and of surface floating objects: applications in MFSTEP
Authors: Pizzigalli C. , Rupolo V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this work we describe part of the activities performed in the MFSTEP project by means of numerical simulations of ARGO profilers and surface floating objects. Simulations of ARGO floats were used to define the optimal time cycling in order to maximize independent observations of vertical profiles of temperature and salinity and to minimize the error on the estimate of the velocity at the parking depth of the profilers. Instead, the Mediterranean Forecasting System archive of Eulerian velocity field from 2000 to 2004 was used to build a related surface Lagrangian archive, systematically integrating numerical particles released and constrained to drift at surface. Here we use such Lagrangian archive to study the interannual variability of the surface Lagrangian transport in two key areas of the Western Mediterranean, also introducing an exponential decay in the particles concentration.
Towards measuring the meridional overturning circulation from space
Authors: Cromwell D. , Shaw A. G. P. , Challenor P. , Houseago-Stokes R. E. , Tokmakian R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We present a step towards measuring the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), i.e. the full-depth water mass transport, in the North Atlantic using satellite data. Using the Parallel Ocean Climate Model, we simulate satellite observations of ocean bottom pressure and sea surface height (SSH) over the 20-year period from 1979–1998, and use a linear model to estimate the MOC. As much as 93.5% of the variability in the smoothed transport is thereby explained. This increases to 98% when SSH and bottom pressure are first smoothed. We present initial studies of predicting the time evolution of the MOC, with promising results. It should be stressed that this is an initial step only, and that to produce an actual working system for measuring the MOC from space would require considerable future work.
The improvements of the ships of opportunity program in MFS-TEP
Authors: Manzella G. M. R. , Reseghetti F. , Coppini G. , Borghini M. , Cruzado A. , Galli C. , Gertman I. , Gervais T. , Hayes D. , Millot C. , Murashkovsky A. , Özsoy E. , Tziavos C. , Velasquez Z. , Zodiatis G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Ships Of Opportunity Program in the Mediterranean Sea was established at the end of 1999, in the framework of the Mediterranean Forecasting System – Pilot Project (MFS-PP). Many improvements have been made in data collection, transmission and management. Calibration of selected XBTs and a comparison of XBTs vs. CTDs during some research cruises have assured the quality of the data. Transmission now allows receiving data in full resolution by using GSM or satellite telecommunication services; management is offering access to high quality data and view services. The effects of technological and methodological improvements in the observing system are assessed in terms of capability to represent the most important circulation features. The improved methodologies have been tested during the Mediterranean Forecasting System – Toward Environmental Prediction (MFS-TEP) – Targeted Operational Period (MFS-TOP), lasting from September 2004 to February 2005. In spite of the short period of measurements, several important aspects of the Mediterranean Sea circulation have been verified, such as eddies and gyres in the various sub-basins, and dense water formation processes in some of them (vertical homogeneous profiles of about 13°C down to ~800 m in the Provençal, and of about 14.9°C down to ~300 m in the Levantine have allowed defining an index of dense water formation).
Improved near real time surface wind resolution over the Mediterranean Sea
Authors: Bentamy A. , Ayina H.-L. , Queffeulou P. , Croize-Fillon D. , Kerbaol V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Several scientific programs, including the Mediterranean Forecasting System Toward Environmental Predictions (MFSTEP project), request high space and time resolutions of surface wind speed and direction. The purpose of this paper is to focus on surface wind improvements over the global Mediterranean Sea, based on the blending near real time remotely sensed wind observations and ECMWF wind analysis. Ocean surface wind observations are retrieved from QuikSCAT scatterometer and from SSM/I radiometers available at near real time at Météo-France. Using synchronous satellite data, the number of remotely sensed data available for each analysis epoch (00:00 h; 06:00 h; 12:00 h; 18:00 h) is not uniformly distributed as a function of space and time. On average two satellite wind observations are available for each analysis time period. The analysis is performed by optimum interpolation (OI) based on the kriging approach. The needed covariance matrixes are estimated from the satellite wind speed, zonal and meridional component observations. The quality of the 6-hourly resulting blended wind fields on 0.25° grid are investigated trough comparisons with the remotely sensed observations as well as with moored buoy wind averaged wind estimates. The blended wind data and remotely wind observations, occurring within 3 h and 0.25° from the analysis estimates, compare well over the global basin as well as over the sub-basins. The correlation coefficients exceed 0.95 while the rms difference values are less than 0.30 m/s. Using measurements from moored buoys, the high-resolution wind fields are found to have similar accuracy as satellite wind retrievals. Blended wind estimates exhibit better comparisons with buoy moored in open sea than near shore.
Inferring the zonal distribution of measured changes in the meridional overturning circulation
Authors: de Boer A. M. , Johnson H. L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Recently, hydrographic measurements have been used to argue that the meridional overturning circulation at 25° N has decreased by 30% over the last 50 years. Here we show that the most likely interpretation consistent with this approach (i.e., with the dynamic method together with a level-of-no-motion assumption and Ekman dynamics) is that any decrease in strength of the deep western boundary current must have been compensated, not by a basin-wide increase in upper layer southward flow, but by changes in the nonlinear region immediately outside of the Florida Straits.
Modeling of the circulation in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea with the Princeton Ocean Model
Authors: Ahumada M. A. , Cruzado A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Princeton Ocean Model – POM (Blumberg and Mellor, 1987) has been implemented in the Northwestern Mediterranean nested (in one-way off-line mode) to a general circulation model of the Mediterranean Sea – OGCM (Pinardi and Masetti, 2000; Demirov and Pinardi, 2002) in order to investigate if this model configuration is capable of reproducing the major features of the circulation as known from observations and to improve what has been made by previous numerical modeling works. According to the model results, the large-scale cyclonic circulation in the northern part of the Northwestern Mediterranean is, at least in the upper layers, less coherent in winter and spring than in summer and autumn. Furthermore, there is evidence that the mesoscale structure (eddies and meanders) is, during all year, a significant dynamic characteristic in this region of the Mediterranean Sea. Finally, concerning the circulation in the lower layers, the model results have confirmed that Levantine Intermediate Water (LIW) and Western Mediterranean Deep Water (WMDW) follow essentially a cyclonic path during all year.
A high-resolution free-surface model of the Mediterranean Sea
Authors: Tonani M. , Pinardi N. , Dobricic S. , Pujol I. , Fratianni C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This study describes a new model implementation for the Mediterranean Sea with what is currently the highest vertical resolution over the Mediterranean basin. The resolution is of 1/16°×1/16° in the horizontal and has 72 unevenly spaced vertical levels. This model has been developed in the frame of the EU-MFSTEP project and is the operational forecast model currently used at the basin scale. The model considers an implicit free surface and this characteristic enhances the model's capability to simulate the sea surface height variability and the net transport at the Strait of Gibraltar. In this study we show the calibration/validation experiments performed before and after the model was used for forecasting. The first experiment consists of a six-year simulation forced by a perpetual year forcing, and the other experiment is a simulation from January 1997 to December 2004, forcing the model with 6-h atmospheric forcing fields from ECMWF. The model Sea Level Anomaly has been compared for the first time with satellite SLA and with ARGO data to provide evidence of the quality of the simulation. The results show that this model is capable of reproducing most of the variability of the general circulation in the Mediterranean Sea. However, some basic model inadequacies stand out and should be corrected in the near future.
On the Indonesian Throughflow in the OCCAM 1/4 degree ocean model
Authors: Humphries U. W. , Webb D. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Indonesian Throughflow is analysed in two runs of the OCCAM 1/4 degree global ocean model, one using monthly climatological winds and one using ECMWF analysed six-hourly winds for the period 1993 to 1998. The long-term model throughflow agrees with observations and the value predicted by Godfrey's Island Rule. The Island Rule has some skill in predicting the annual signal each year but is poor at predicting year to year and shorter term variations in the total flow, especially in El Niño years. The spectra of transports in individual passages show significant differences between those connecting the region to the Pacific Ocean and those connecting with the Indian Ocean. On investigation we found that changes in the northern transports were strongly correlated with changes in the position of currents in the Celebes Sea and off Halmahera. Vertical profiles of transport are in reasonable agreement with observations but the model overestimates the near surface transport through the Lombok Strait and the dense overflow from the Pacific through the Lifamatola Strait into the deep Banda Sea. In both cases the crude representation of the passages by the model appears responsible. In the north the model shows, as expected, that the largest transport is via the Makassar Strait. However this is less than expected and instead there is significant flow via the Halmahera Sea. If Godfrey's Island Rule is correct and the throughflow is forced by the northward flow between Australia and South America, then the Halmahers Sea route should be important. It is the most southerly route around New Guinea to the Indian Ocean and there is no apparent reason why the flow should go further north in order to pass through the Makassar Strait. The model result thus raises the question of why in reality the Makassar Strait route appears to dominate the throughflow.
Influence of Rossby waves on primary production from a coupled physical-biogeochemical model in the North Atlantic Ocean
Authors: Charria G. , Dadou I. , Cipollini P. , Drévillon M. , Garçon V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Rossby waves appear to have a clear signature on surface chlorophyll concentrations which can be explained by a combination of vertical and horizontal mechanisms. In this study, we investigate the role of the different physical processes in the north Atlantic to explain the surface chlorophyll signatures and the consequences on primary production, using a 3-D coupled physical/biogeochemical model for the year 1998. The analysis at 20 given latitudes, mainly located in the subtropical gyre, where Rossby waves are strongly correlated with a surface chlorophyll signature, shows the important contribution of horizontal advection and of vertical advection and diffusion of inorganic dissolved nitrogen. The main control mechanism differs according to the biogeochemical background conditions of the area. The surface chlorophyll anomalies, induced by these physical mechanisms, have an impact on primary production. We estimate that Rossby waves induce, locally in space and time, increases (generally associated with the chlorophyll wave crest) and decreases (generally associated with the chlorophyll wave trough) in primary production, ~±20% of the estimated background primary production. This symmetrical situation suggests a net weak effect of Rossby waves on primary production.
Geothermal heating, diapycnal mixing and the abyssal circulation
Authors: Emile-Geay J. , Madec G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The dynamical role of geothermal heating in abyssal circulation is reconsidered using three independent arguments. First, we show that a uniform geothermal heat flux close to the observed average (86.4 mW m−2) supplies as much heat to near-bottom water as a diapycnal mixing rate of ~10−4 m2 s−1 – the canonical value thought to be responsible for the magnitude of the present-day abyssal circulation. This parity raises the possibility that geothermal heating could have a dynamical impact of the same order. Second, we estimate the magnitude of geothermally-induced circulation with the density-binning method (Walin, 1982), applied to the observed thermohaline structure of Levitus (1998). The method also allows to investigate the effect of realistic spatial variations of the flux obtained from heatflow measurements and classical theories of lithospheric cooling. It is found that a uniform heatflow forces a transformation of ~6 Sv at σ4=45.90, which is of the same order as current best estimates of AABW circulation. This transformation can be thought of as the geothermal circulation in the absence of mixing and is very similar for a realistic heatflow, albeit shifted towards slightly lighter density classes. Third, we use a general ocean circulation model in global configuration to perform three sets of experiments: (1) a thermally homogenous abyssal ocean with and without uniform geothermal heating; (2) a more stratified abyssal ocean subject to (i) no geothermal heating, (ii) a constant heat flux of 86.4 mW m−2, (iii) a realistic, spatially varying heat flux of identical global average; (3) experiments (i) and (iii) with enhanced vertical mixing at depth. Geothermal heating and diapycnal mixing are found to interact non-linearly through the density field, with geothermal heating eroding the deep stratification supporting a downward diffusive flux, while diapycnal mixing acts to map near-surface temperature gradients onto the bottom, thereby altering the density structure that supports a geothermal circulation. For strong vertical mixing rates, geothermal heating enhances the AABW cell by about 15% (2.5 Sv) and heats up the last 2000 m by ~0.15°C, reaching a maximum of by 0.3°C in the deep North Pacific. Prescribing a realistic spatial distribution of the heat flux acts to enhance this temperature rise at mid-depth and reduce it at great depth, producing a more modest increase in overturning than in the uniform case. In all cases, however, poleward heat transport increases by ~10% in the Southern Ocean. The three approaches converge to the conclusion that geothermal heating is an important actor of abyssal dynamics, and should no longer be neglected in oceanographic studies.
Role of cabbeling in water densification in the Greenland Basin
Authors: Kasajima Y. , Johannessen T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The effects of cabbeling mixing on water mass modification in the Greenland Sea were explored by hydrographic observations across the Greenland Basin in summer 2006. The neutral surface was chosen as a reference frame, and the strength of cabbeling mixing was quantified by the dianeutral velocity magnitude. Active cabbeling spots were detected with the criterion of the velocity magnitude >1 m/day, and four active cabbeling areas were identified; the west of Bear Island (SB), the Arctic Frontal Zone (AFZ), the central Greenland Sea (CG) and the western Greenland Sea (WG). The most vigorous cabbeling mixing was found at SB, where warm North Atlantic Water (NAW) mixed with cold water from the Barents Sea, inducing a maximum velocity of 7.5 m/day and a maximum density gain of 4.7×10−3 kg/m3. At AFZ and CG, the mixing took place between NAW, modified NAW and Arctic Intermediate Water (AIW), and the density gain at these fronts were 1.5×10−3 kg/m3 (AFZ) and 1.3×10−3 kg/m3 (CG). In the western Greenland Sea, the active cabbeling spots were widely separated and mixing appeared to be rather weak, with a maximum velocity of 2.5 m/day. The mixing source waters at WG were modified NAW, AIW and even denser water, and the density gain in this area was 0.4×10−3 kg/m3. The deepest mixing produced water whose density is equivalent to that of the dense water of the basin, indicating that cabbeling in the western Greenland Sea contributed directly to basin-scale water densification. The water mass modification rate was the highest at AFZ (about 8.0 Sv), suggesting that cabbeling may play an important role in water transformation in the Greenland Basin.