Design of a prognostic model for assessing the risk of developing asbestosis based on the results of molecular genetic studies
Authors: Kuzmina Lyudmila P. , Anokhin Nikolay N. , Khotuleva Anastasia G. , Kisljakova Agata A. 
Published: January 2024

Introduction. Preventive measures, including the development of a system for diagnosing early signs of changes in the health status of employees and predicting individual risks of developing the disease, aimed at preserving labor resources, reducing disability and extending working life expectancy, are an absolute priority in the field of occupational safety.
The aim of the study to develop a prognostic model of the risk of developing asbestosis based on molecular genetic studies in employees of enterprises for the extraction and enrichment of chrysotile asbestos.
Materials and methods. Based on studies previously conducted in the Laboratory of Biomedical Research at the Izmerov Research Institute of Occupational Health, scientists have identified a set of informative and significant single-nucleotide polymorphic gene variants for use as predictors in the construction of a prognostic model in the development of asbestos in workers of enterprises for the extraction and enrichment of chrysotile asbestos. We examined 136 people who worked at the enterprise for the extraction and enrichment of chrysotile asbestos. The researchers formed two groups comparable in terms of work experience, dustiness, age and gender: 68 former employees of the main production specialties with an established diagnosis of asbestos and 68 workers without bronchopulmonary pathology.
The authors calculated the exposure dose of chrysotile-containing dust and calculated it taking into account the percentage of time spent at the workplace, and also performed a molecular genetic study of single-nucleotide polymorphic variants of the genes IL-1β rs16944, IL-4 rs2243250, TGF-β1 rs1800471, SOD-2 rs4880 and MMP-9 rs17576.
Results. A predictive model has been developed to determine the probability of developing asbestosis in workers of an enterprise for the extraction and enrichment of chrysotile asbestos based on the determination of single nucleotide polymorphisms IL-1β rs16944, SOD-2 rs4880 and MMP-9 rs17576. The results of genetic tests are entered into the formula and if the resulting probability of developing asbestosis is equal to or higher than the threshold (0.582), the employee is included in the high-risk group. The sensitivity and specificity of the developed model were 70.1% and 70.6%, respectively.
Conclusion. Molecular genetic indicators can act as predictors in the development of asbestosis in workers of the chrysotile extraction and enrichment industry and can be used to form high-risk groups during preventive measures.
Ethics. The study was conducted in compliance with ethical standards that guarantee respect for all research subjects and the protection of their health and rights in accordance with the requirements of the Helsinki Declaration of the World Medical Association. All persons included in the study gave informed voluntary consent to the examination in accordance with Federal Law No. 323-FZ dated 11/21/2011 "On the Basics of Public Health Protection in the Russian Federation". The study was approved by the conclusion of the local Ethics committee of Izmerov Research Institute of Occupational Health (minutes of the meeting of the Ethics committee of Izmerov Research Institute of Occupational Health No. 9 dated 11/29/2016).