bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
MOBO ESP Interventions
Authors: Urban A. , Boechat N. , Haaheim S. , Sleight N. , Debacker I. , Rivera Robert
Published: October 2015

The Shell operated Parque das Conchas fields of the Brazilian deepwater block BC-10 utilize ESPs as the sole artificial lift method. Unlike traditional in-well deployed ESP systems, the ten BC-10 ESPs are deployed inside relatively shallow – 100m - caissons distributed across three subsea gathering areas, or Artificial Lift Manifolds at water depths from 1650 to 1900m. The integrated caisson, ESP and inflow/outflow valving is deployed and retrieved as a single unit and hence derives the name of a Pump Module, or Modulo de Bomba in Portuguese, or MOBO for short.

As ESPs have much shorter run lives compared to the approximate 25 year field life, the BC-10 subsea operations asset team is responsible for managing and executing the rig based ESP replacement intervention campaigns, or Mobo interventions. As of 2015, nine ESP replacements have been executed in four campaigns. This paper examines the diverse aspects associated with the ongoing efforts to maintain the artificial lift system of BC-10 before, during and after a rig intervention campaign. Topics covered include the ESP failure analysis, equipment sparing philosophy, equipment and tooling preparations, offshore execution, vendor relationships and overall project management. Finally, learnings obtained during the four years of near continuous preparation and execution of MOBO interventions are discussed along with some planned future improvements.
Feasibility Study on Logistics Hub for Passengers in Offshore Brazil
Authors: Maeda K. , Ohmura T. , Harada H. , Miyabe H. , Sezaki Y. , Takeda S.
Published: October 2015

The optimization of passenger transportation system takes on an increasingly important role in case of the large distance from onshore to offshore floating units. Especially, if number of offshore floating units is large. As a solution of this issue, authors introduce the results of the feasibility study of the Logistics Hub System which aims at the application to offshore Brazil.

The authors investigated the situation of the logistics around the offshore production units based on announced information. In consideration of number of transferred workers, weather conditions in offshore Brazil, daily operation, emergency response and so on, we developed the conceptual design of Logistics Hub System for passengers, which consists of the floating hub unit and high speed vessels. Feasibility and operability of conceptual system were confirmed by numerical simulations, model tests and risk analysis.

Shape of the floating hub is selected semi-submersible type and the high speed vessel is a trimaran type. The floating hub has a berthing area inside of it, and high speed vessel will berth to this berthing area. Feasibility of this berthing operation was confirmed by model tests and maneuvering simulator. Also risk analysis was conducted and design of the floating hub and high speed vessels were considered results of this analysis. The point of view from operability, we checked relative motions between the floating hub and the high speed vessel for safety embark or disembark from the high speed vessel to the floating hub. These results shows the Logistics Hub System for passengers has enough feasibility and operability, and it will able to reduce the operation cost and accidental risk compared with transfer operation by using only helicopters from onshore to offshore platforms. This paper reveals the technical feasibility of the Logistic Hub System in terms of safe and efficient transportation of workers. It will contribute to the future development of oil and gas fields which has large distance from onshore.
Comparative Geostatistical Simulation of Formation Permeability through Bayesian and Conventional Kriging Approaches
Authors: Al-Mudhafar Watheq J. , da Silva William G. A. L.
Published: October 2015

Spatial petrophysical property modeling is a crucial step in reservoir characterization as it directly affects heterogeneity and flow modeling. So it is essential to look for an optimal algorithm that leads to capture the most realistic spatial modeling. Many conventional kriging algorithms have been adopted for spatial permeability modeling such as simple, ordinary, and universal kriging. All these approaches are linear unbiased estimators as covariance structure is estimated first, and then used for interpolation leading to ignore the effect of uncertainty in the covariance structure on subsequent predictions. To overcome the restrictions of unbiased prediction in conventional approaches, Bayesian Kriging has been recently suggested to take into account the uncertainty about Variogram parameters on subsequent predictions. Bayesian Kriging incorporates a prior knowledge about observations such as expert grasp and outcome from neighboring data to be considered as a qualified guess in spatial estimation procedure. Commonly, the prior distribution is classified in term of Variogram parameters such as coefficients, data variance, range, and nugget to be adopted as a qualified guess in the spatial estimation. The qualified guess allows uncertainty estimation reduction to achieve more realistic spatial modeling and improved reservoir characterization. The observation uncertainty is represented as a posterior distribution and predictive parameter distribution avoiding unrealistic small regions within the observations to attain optimal unbiased linear interpolation through Bayesian kriging algorithm. Due to the some similarity between Bayesian Kriging and Universal Kriging, which incorporates 2D trend in the spatial modeling, the two algorithms were considered for comparative spatial modeling of formation permeability in a real heterogeneous sandstone reservoir. The spatial modeling was also done through simple and ordinary kriging for extensive comparison. A statistical sampling approach was considered to rank and select the three quantiles P10, P50, and P90 of the created equiprobable reservoir stochastic images. The entire work was done through R, the most open-source statistical computing language.
Economic Viability of E&P Projects under Production Sharing Agreement: Libra field Case Study in Presalt
Authors: Motta R. d. , Caldas L. Q. , Amaral N. B.
Published: October 2015

This paper intends to study presalt region economic viability by choosing the case of Libra field, the only presalt field to be acquired in Production Sharing Contracts bid round until now. Libra is considered one of the most important exploratory areas worldwide and its Brazil´s biggest oil field.

For the conclusions of this paper it was necessary to estimate production volumes and costs involved in the development of Libra oil field according to industry parameters and government data. A forecast for oil prices was stipulated according to historical data and future contracts. A cashflow could be determinate by concatenating expected income with production sharing agreement government outcomes, making it possible to define the Payback, Internal Return Rate (IRR), and Net Present Value (NPV) of the investment. Varying the discount rate it was possible to study the NPV sensibility.

The Brazilian new exploratory frontier region denominated Presalt is gaining remarkable importance in country´s economic and political scenario. The outlook for the next 10 years is that presalt fields will represent over 50% of Brazilian´s production, calling attention of researchers and experts. To aim high economic benefits, in such alluring area, local Government presented a series of adjustments in its regulations for E&P industry.

However, drilling and producing in Presalt presents technology challenges, due to significant distances from shore, extreme water depths, thick and unstable salt layers, and still limited knowledge over reservoir rock. Research and appraisal will consume high investments, since technologies to be used in the region involve high costs. Added to this there are uncertainties concerning the current regulatory changes, which constrain production profits, and rise concerns over projects viability in the region.
Large Bore, Extreme Conditions Horizontal Deepwater Connection System
Authors: Watkins D. , Charalambides J.
Published: October 2015

This presentation will concentrate on the design challenges, experience and learnings from the Oceaneering 22 inch, 5,000 psi horizontal pipeline connection system. The gas development project is in approximately 4,900 FSW and is designed to deliver approximately 330 million SCFM for the next 30 years. The heavy wall jumper piping imparted heavy external loads on the connectors along with the pressure end loads and thermal fluctuations associated with the gas system.

Aspects of the connection system are unique due to the design requirements such as heavy imparted loads during make-up and operation, multiple make/break cycles, and torque tool operations. These and other aspects of the connection system required a new and reformatted approach to existing clamp connector designs.
R&D in Focus - Using and Improving Brazilian Framework in Light of the Alien Experience
Authors: Cavalcanti V. , Gaspar F.
Published: October 2015

The purpose of this Paper is to analyze the research and development (R&D) Legislation in Brazil – more specifically Law n.° 11.196/2005 and relevant regulating provisions which established Fiscal Incentives to Technological Innovation – from an economic policy perspective in order to determine the mens legis (spirit of the law) and identify potential enhancements towards attracting more investment in R&D via better using this instrument.
CSEM in Proximity of Subsea Infrastructure - A Reservoir Sensitivity Study
Authors: Pedersen H. T. , Birkeland O. J.
Published: October 2015

In mature hydrocarbon basins the seabed might have extensive subsea infrastructure and Hite et al. (2015) describe how a Controlled Source ElectroMagnetic (CSEM) survey was designed to follow strict safety requirements around the Perdido installation in the Gulf of Mexico. The imaging results presented are reconstructing the known Frio pay zone and in this paper we conduct a generic synthetic study to look at the degree of reservoir sensitivity loss where obstructions prohibit optimal hardware positioning and demonstrate why exclusion zones is not detrimental to reservoir illumination.
Sales Gas Production Challenges in an Ultradeep Water Field
Authors: Orreindy S. , Batalla L. F. , Superchi G.
Published: October 2015

Sales gas production offshore needs a complex process involving low temperature system to condense heaviest hydrocarbons from the gas and spike them totally or partially in the oil stream, while complying with sales oil specification.

This work studies the parameters that impact on this process, the main challenges that can arise and the different ways to deal with them in order to ensure a smooth sales gas production during the whole field life, even with very stringent conditions.
Wellbore Stability Model for Standalone Liner Completed Wells in Carbonate Reservoirs Subjected to Acidizing Jobs - I. Dissolution-Induced Mechanical Weakening Model
Authors: Santos E. S. Raggio , Ferreira F. H.
Published: October 2015

Mechanical stability analyses are mandatory to identify suitable candidates for openhole completions. These analyses should comprehend the effects of production drawdown and reservoir depletion state anticipated by the production plan. The understanding and modeling of the physico-chemical interactions between rock and flown fluids and their impacts on the rock mechanical properties is imperative in the openhole stability analysis of wellbores drilled in carbonate reservoir rocks, especially in the wells subjected to acid stimulation.

This paper presents a methodology for determining the impact of stimulation jobs in the confined rock mechanical response and thus on the acidized wellbore stability. The authors briefly discuss the main rock dissolution patterns, ranging from compact dissolution to homogeneous, passing through the wormhole generation. The homogeneous dissolution pattern has been pursuit in the laboratory because of: i) absence of confident methods to anticipate which other pattern should be more dominant in a given scenario; and ii) Its highest impact on the mechanical properties, leading to safe analyses.

As a result, 24 samples from an off-shore carbonate reservoir have been mechanically tested. 13 of these have been tested after a massive dissolution. The initial effective pore volume and its evolution due to dissolution have been registered and were applied as a geomechanics indicator. The triaxial test results show that the rock softens during injection with impacts on its kinematic parameters. The ultimate rock strength, otherwise, remained almost unchanged. An analytical expression has been devised to map the porosity variations in the wellbore surroundings based on the acid job operational parameters. It indicates that the main failure behavior of a uncased wellbore subjected to acidizing jobs or non-native fluid flows should be related to excessive near wellbore rock straining rather than brittle failures. In this scenario, a standalone completion scheme would be preferable against the barefoot because of its ability to provide mechanical support to the altered rock at the borehole walls.

The current dissolution-induced rock weakening model presents a significant increase in the understanding on how the acid job affects the carbonate rock mechanical response, building a solid base for the well integrity analyses in the production phase.
The Buoy Supporting Risers (BSR) System: Steel Catenary Risers (SCRs) From Design to Installation of the First Reel CRA Lined Pipes
Authors: Gouveia J. , Sriskandarajah T. , Karunakaran D. , Manso D. , Chiodo M. , Maneschy R. , Pedrosa J. , Cruz I.
Published: October 2015

Steel catenary risers (SCR) have been a favored choice for recent ultra-deep waters field developments subjected to harsh environments and large Floating Production Units (FPU) motions. The design of SCRs in such conditions is always a great challenge where the key issues are the fatigue near the hang-off and at the touch down point; clashing between lines, especially on fields with a large number of wells and high payloads on the production unit. This paper describes the solution provided by the Buoy Supporting Risers (BSR) concept which has recently been installed in the Santos basin offshore Brazil.

Subsea7 detailed the original concept of BSR system, from the design to fabrication and installation. The BSR concept combines several benefits to overcome the challenges of installing SCRs on ultra-deep waters, such as: allowing decoupling between installation of risers/flowlines and the platform, reducing payload on the production unit, very small dynamics transmitted from production unit to the risers, resulting in significant less fatigue issues. Also, the BSR concept reduces the risks associated with clashing and interference due to the smaller dynamics when compared to traditional coupled solutions. Fabrication is also addressed to highlight main challenges associated to assembling and welding clad and lined pipelines.

In order to install Corrosion Resistant Alloys (CRA) lined pipes with a Reel-Lay vessel, a novel methodology for water pressurized spooling and pipelay was developed to mitigate the risk of liner damage during installation. Full-scale pressurized spooling trials were done ahead of the pipelay campaign for testing and validation of this methodology. In addition, analyses were performed to evaluate the BSR system behaviour during SCRs installation and to minimize buoy de-ballasting interventions.

The SCR itself, due to de-coupling of motions by the buoy, have negligible dynamic response from vessel motions, thereby behaving almost like a static system with robust fatigue performance. The only meaningful fatigue in SCRs is due to current induced VIV and is mitigated using strakes. There was negligible potential clashing with adjacent SCRs.

This paper provides a summary of design and qualification work carried for SCRs installed in the BSR system the faced challenges and solutions engineered during fabrication and installation scopes.
The Evaluation of Hydrocarbon Blends Using Brasil's Proposed Offshore Drilling Regulations
Authors: Lee B. , Brown D. M. , Spence M. J. , Whale G.
Published: October 2015

IBAMA recently proposed in its Technical Note of 2014 that organic base stocks used for offshore drilling fluids in Brasil must meet performance standards as measured by 10-day sediment toxicity and 275-day closed bottle anaerobic biodegradation tests. A series of organic bases and organic base blends were tested to measure the link between organic base chemical structure and performance in these tests.

All fluids chosen for the study are materials currently in use for drilling offshore Brasil or available for use. The components include linear olefins, internal olefins, low toxicity mineral oils, linear paraffins, branched paraffins and oleo based ester. All materials were evaluated independently and as mixtures in the 10-day ASTM E1367-99 sediment toxicity test with Leptocheirus plumulosus and the 275-day modified ISO 11734:1995 anaerobic closed bottle test using estuarine marine sediment. As the proposed Technical Note requires, the performance of all materials were measured against that of a C1618 internal olefin standard.

The results show that the sediment toxicity of organic base stock is connected primarily with molecular weight or carbon number of the hydrocarbon backbone. Materials with a carbon backbone greater than C15 had lower sediment toxicity than those with carbon numbers C14 or lower as measured against the standard. Performance of base stock in the anaerobic biodegradation test was dependent on the chemical structure. Products containing a more chemically reactive olefin or ester group degraded more than the C1618 IO standard. The relative anaerobic biodegradation performance of the organic bases was ester, olefin > paraffin. The linearity of the carbon backbone of an organic base also played a role in anaerobic biodegradation with linear materials degrading faster than branched materials. The sediment toxicity and anaerobic biodegradation performance of a blend was influenced by the proportion of the constituents present and their individual sediment toxicity and anaerobic biodegradation properties.

This testing demonstrates the ability of the proposed sediment toxicity and anaerobic biodegradation tests to differentiate the performance of organic bases depending on their chemical and structural characteristics.
The Impact of Carbon Dioxide and Nitrogen in Fuel Gas on Gas Turbine Operation
Authors: Welch M. , Igoe B.
Published: October 2015

It is not uncommon for gas turbines to be required to operate on fuel gases with high inert gas contents. The inert gas is usually carbon dioxide (CO2) or nitrogen (N2), and either occurs naturally in the gas or is present as a result of tertiary Enhanced Oil Recovery processes (CO2 or N2 injection)

While the primary concern of using high inert gas fuels is in the ability to combust the fuel gas, consideration needs to be given to other áreas of gas turbine design and performance on which high inert gases may have an impact.

Assuming the combustion issues are resolved, the low calorific value of a high inert gas fuel means that more fuel needs to be fed into the gas turbine to achieve the design power output. This additional fuel flow means that modifications must be made to the fuel supply system and fuel injectors, while the additional fuel flow also increases the mass flow across the turbine stages, affecting gas turbine performance. Starting the gas turbine with ‘weak’ fuel gases is an area of special significance; whilst it is possible in some case to ignite and operate on such fuels, the transient operation may result in ‘lean blow-out’. Alternative fuels, such as good quality kerosene, may not be a viable solution for Oil & Gas applications so gas enrichment to a fuel quality point where satisfactory transient operation is known to occur will be demonstrated.

This paper looks at all the effects of high inert fuel gases on all aspects of gas turbine performance and design, looking at the necessary changes from a unit operating on a pipeline quality natural gas, and the operational limitations, such as compressor surge margin and heat transfer on cooled blades, and why these limitations vary from gas turbine model to model. There are occasions where fuels contain so much inert species that some pre-treatment is required to make these more suitable for gas turbine use, and a brief introduction to some of these methods is provided.
Patterns of groundwater flow in seven discharge areas in Saskatchewan and Manitoba
Authors: Meyboom P , Van Everdingen R O , Freeze R A
Published: October 2015

Theories that describe the extent of the zone of groundwater discharge require testing in the field by the installation of piezometers. Four types of piezometers were installed in selected areas on the Prairies. The areas selected for study are drained or
bisected by deeply incised rivers or valleys, whose flanks are five to fifteen times steeper than the regional slope between the water divide and the edge of the valley. Measurements carried out during l 8 months show that groundwater discharge is limited to the valley bottom. The boundary between
downward flow and lateral or upward flow may lie anywhere between one fifth and one third of the way up the valley flank. It is not always possible to describe all discharge phenomena in one vertical cross-section. The flow resultant in a vertical cross-section through an area of predominantly
downward flow may be a good approximation of the total-flow vector, but the discrepancy between the total-flow vector and the flow resultant increases towards the centre of the discharge area, owing to the increasing magnitude of the longitudinal component of flow.
The mining-induced displacement and resettlement: The church as a leaven and ecclesiology in context’s response
Authors: Resane K. Thomas
Published: October 2015

Natural resources, especially minerals from the earth, are to be protected by humanity. The church, which acts as leaven in the world is called to rise and address the unfriendly mining activities called mining-induced displacement and resettlement (MIDR). The general theory of interpretation of creation account calls for human stewardship in the world. Humans must view themselves as partners with God in preserving and sustaining the cosmos. The communities had suffered negative socio-economic imbalances. The ekklesia in this cosmic chaos is called upon to fulfil four major functions, namely identity, integration, policy, and management as a way of intervention in communities that are victims of these mining activities. This response, ecclesiology in context, is the combination of theological and social-scientific approaches to the development of practical models and strategies for the church’s interaction with modern society and its challenges.
DICOM Structured Reporting and Cancer Clinical Trials Results
Authors: Clunie David A.
Published: October 2015

The use of biomarkers derived from radiological images as surrogate end-points in therapeutic cancer clinical trials is well established. DICOM is the ubiquitous standard for the interchange of images for both clinical use as well as research. It also has capabilities for the exchange of image-related information, including categorical and quantitative information derived from images. The use of DICOM Structured Reporting for the encoding and interchange of clinical trial results in a standard manner is reviewed.
Climate modulation of the Tibetan Plateau on haze in China
Authors: Xu X. , Zhao T. , Liu F. , Gong S. L. , Kristovich D. , Lu C. , Guo Y. , Cheng X. , Wang Y. , Ding G.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. Rapid increases in pollutant emissions in conjunction with stagnant meteorological conditions result in haze pollution in China. Recent frequent haze in China has attracted worldwide attention. Here we show a relationship between the haze events and Tibetan Plateau (TP)'s environment and climate changes. Based on observational data taken over recent decades, we identify central-eastern China (CEC) as a climatological large-scale "susceptible region" of frequent haze, which is harbored by the TP with its impact on mid-latitude westerly winds. The observational and modeling studies demonstrate that the interannual variations in the thermal forcing of TP are positively correlated with the incidences of wintertime haze over CEC. Further analysis indicates that the TP-climate warming induced changes in atmospheric circulation driving frequent haze events in CEC. The frequent haze occurrences in CEC are consistent with decreasing winter monsoon winds, intensifying downward air flows and increasing atmospheric stability in the lower troposphere over the CEC in association with upstream plateau's thermal anomalies. Therefore, variations of haze in China are related to mechanical and thermal forcing by the TP. Our results also suggest that implications of the large TP-topography for environment and climate changes should be taken into account for air pollution mitigation policies in China.
Validation of TANSO-FTS/GOSAT XCO2 and XCH4 glint mode retrievals using TCCON data from near-ocean sites
Authors: Zhou M. , Dils B. , Wang P. , Detmers R. G. , Yoshida Y. , O'Dell C. W. , Feist D. G. , Velazco V. , Schneider M. , De Mazière M.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. Thermal And Near infrared Sensor for carbon Observations Fourier Transform Spectrometer (TANSO-FTS) on board The Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) applies the normal nadir mode above the land ("land data") and sun glint mode over the ocean ("ocean data") to provide global distributions of column-averaged dry-air mole fractions of CO2 and CH4, or XCO2 and XCH4. Several algorithms have been developed to obtain highly accurate greenhouse gas concentrations from TANSO-FTS/GOSAT spectra. So far, all the retrieval algorithms have been validated with the measurements from ground-based Fourier transform spectrometers from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), but limited to the land data. In this paper, the ocean data of the SRPR, SRFP (the proxy and full-physics versions 2.3.5 of SRON/KIT's RemoTeC algorithm), NIES (National Institute for Environmental Studies operational algorithm version 02.21) and ACOS (NASA's Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space version 3.5) are compared with FTIR measurements from five TCCON sites and near-by GOSAT land data. For XCO2, both land and ocean data of NIES, SRFP and ACOS show good agreement with TCCON measurements. Averaged over all TCCON sites, the relative biases of ocean data and land data are 0.33 and 0.13 % for NIES, −0.03 and −0.04 % for SRFP, −0.06 and 0.03 % for ACOS, respectively. The relative scatter ranges between 0.31 and 0.49 %. For XCH4, the relative bias of ocean data is even less than that of the land data for the NIES (−0.02 vs. 0.35 %), SRFP (&minus,0.04 vs. −0.20 %) and SRPR (0.02 vs. −0.06 %) algorithms. Compared to the results for XCO2, the XCH4 retrievals show larger relative scatter (0.65–0.81 %).
Fossil plant stomata indicate decreasing atmospheric CO2 prior to the Eocene–Oligocene boundary
Authors: Steinthorsdottir M. , Porter A. S. , Holohan A. , Kunzmann L. , Collinson M. , McElwain J. C.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. A unique stratigraphic sequence of fossil leaves of Eotrigonobalanus furcinervis (extinct trees of the beech family, Fagaceae) from central Germany has been used to derive an atmospheric pCO2 record with multiple data points spanning the late middle to late Eocene, two sampling levels which may be earliest Oligocene, and two samples from later in the Oligocene. Using the inverse relationship between the density of stomata and pCO2, we show that pCO2 decreased continuously from the late middle to late Eocene, reaching a relatively stable low value before the end of the Eocene. Based on the subsequent records, pCO2 in parts of the Oligocene was similar to latest Eocene values. These results show that a decrease in pCO2 preceded the large shift in marine oxygen isotope records that characterizes the Eocene–Oliogocene transition. This may be related to the "hysteresis effect" previously proposed – where a certain threshold of pCO2 change was crossed before the cumulative effects of this and other factors resulted in rapid temperature decline, ice build up on Antarctica and hence a change of climate mode.
Successive dynamic programming and subsequent spline optimization for smooth time optimal robot path tracking
Authors: Oberherber M. , Gattringer H. , Müller A.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. The time optimal path tracking for industrial robots regards the problem of generating trajectories that follow predefined end-effector (EE) paths in shortest time possible taking into account kinematic and dynamic constraints. The complicated tasks used in industrial applications lead to very long EE paths. At the same time smooth trajectories are mandatory in order to increase the service life. The consideration of jerk and torque rate restrictions, necessary to achieve smooth trajectories, causes enormous numerical effort, and increases computation times. This is in particular due to the high number of optimization variables required for long geometric paths. In this paper we propose an approach where the path is split into segments. For each individual segment a smooth time optimal trajectory is determined and represented by a spline. The overall trajectory is then found by assembling these splines to the solution for the whole path. Further we will show that by using splines, the jerks are automatically bounded so that the jerk constraints do not have to be imposed in the optimization, which reduces the computational complexity. We present experimental results for a six-axis industrial robot. The proposed approach provides smooth time optimal trajectories for arbitrary long geometric paths in an efficient way.
Repeated glacial lake outburst flood threatening the oldest Buddhist monastery in north-western Nepal
Authors: Kropáček J. , Neckel N. , Tyrna B. , Holzer N. , Hovden A. , Gourmelen N. , Schneider C. , Buchroithner M. , Hochschild V.
Published: October 2015

Abstract. Since 2004, Halji village, home of the oldest Buddhist Monastery in north-western Nepal, has suffered from recurrent glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs). A sudden englacial drainage of a supraglacial lake, located at a distance of 6.5 km from the village, was identified as the source of the flood. The topography of the lake basin was mapped by combining differential Global Positioning System (DGPS) measurements with a structure-from-motion (SFM) approach using terrestrial photographs. From this model the maximum filling capacity of the lake has been estimated as 1.06 ×10^6 m3 with a maximum discharge of 77.8 m3 s−1, calculated using the empiric Clague–Mathews formula. A simulation of the flooded area employing a raster-based hydraulic model considering six scenarios of discharge volume and surface roughness did not result in a flooding of the village. However, both the village and the monastery are threatened by undercutting of the river bank formed by unconsolidated sediments, as it already happened in 2011. Further, the comparison of the GLOF occurrences with temperature and precipitation from the High Asia Reanalysis (HAR) data set for the period 2001–2011 suggests that the GLOF is climate-driven rather than generated by an extreme precipitation event. The calculation of geodetic mass balance and the analysis of satellite images showed a rapid thinning and retreat of Halji Glacier which will eventually lead to a decline of the lake basin. As the basin will persist for at least several years, effective mitigation measures should be considered. A further reinforcement of the gabion walls was suggested as an artificial lake drainage is not feasible given the difficult accessibility of the glacier.
Risk Management in Supply Chain Management: Case Study of a Brazilian Automotive Distribution Process
Authors: Wolfs Diego A , Takakura Franco , Rezende Maysa , Vivaldini Mauro , Antoniolli Pedro Domingos
Published: October 2015

Globalisation requires from companies greater flexibility and adaptability of its internal processes, to allow them be aligned to market requirements. This flexibility results in new forms of relationships between partners, supply chains. For these chains differentiate themselves from their competitors, they should add value to products and services that they deliver to the end customer, while being profitable from the standpoint of its processes and operations. In this sense, would be needed effective supply chain management, which is constituted by collaboration and cooperation among partners, strategic and processes integration, to result in a profitable operation, and products and services with added value to the customer. Additionally, because logistics is a key element for the integration and collaboration among SC members, and due the fact that, depending of the scope of these chains, there are potentially more risks happening, which may have negative impacts on the customer service level, and consequently, loss of effectiveness of their logistics processes. This study aims to analyze the risks in a product distribution process in the Brazilian automotive sector, considering the operations performed by a logistics operator of this automaker.
Keywords: Automotive Industry; Logistics Operator; Supply Chain; Supply Chain Management; Risks Management.
Reviewer Acknowledgements for International Journal of Statistics and Probability, Vol. 4, No. 4
Authors: Smith Wendy
Published: October 2015

International Journal of Statistics and Probability wishes to acknowledge the following individuals for their assistance with peer review of manuscripts for this issue. Their help and contributions in maintaining the quality of the journal is greatly appreciated.

Many authors, regardless of whether International Journal of Statistics and Probability publishes their work, appreciate the helpful feedback provided by the reviewers.

Reviewers for Volume 4, Number 4

Abdullah A. SMADI

Afsin Sahin

Ali Reza Fotouhi

Anwar H Joarder

Bibi Abdelouahab

Carolyn Huston

Douglas Lorenz

Encarnación Alvarez-Verdejo

Gabriel A. Okyere

Gane Samb Lo

Hongsheng Dai

Ivair R. Silva

Marcelo Bourguignon

Milind Phadnis

Mirko D'Ovidio

Philip Westgate

Rebecca Bendayan

Sajid Ali

Samir Safi

Sohair F. Higazi

Tewfik Kernane

Vyacheslav Abramov

Wei Zhang

Wojciech Gamrot

Yimei Li

 

Wendy Smith

On behalf of,

The Editorial Board of International Journal of Statistics and Probability

Canadian Center of Science and Education
Development of Corn Stover Biofuel: Impacts on Corn and Soybean Markets and Crop Rotation
Authors: Taheripour Farzad , Fiegel Julie , Tyner Wallace E.
Published: October 2015

What would be the impacts of a viable market for corn stover? A partial equilibrium model and a linear programing model were used to determine to what extent the existence of a viable market for corn stover would affect the traditional corn-soybean crop rotation in the US. We find that with government support production of biofuel from corn stover could significantly increase. That boosts profitability of farming corn in combination with harvesting corn stover versus soybeans. We show that if corn stover is demanded for biofuel, then a major shift will be observed in crop rotations in the US.
Dressing Commander Shepard in pink: Queer playing in a heteronormative game culture
Authors: Krobová Tereza , Moravec Ondřej , Švelch Jaroslav
Published: October 2015

This article explores the strategies of queer playing of video games and their relationship to the heteronormative game culture. Its premise is that most video games are, either implicitly or explicitly, heteronormative and the inscribed player of such games is in the majority of cases a heterosexual male. In order to achieve the same level of identification with an avatar and to enjoy a similar gameplay experience as the heterosexual player, the LGBT player may have to deploy various strategies to challenge the game and work around it, or to find the LGBT content which some more progressive games offer. The study is based on in-depth qualitative interviews with six players (5 males and 1 female) who identified themselves both as homosexual and as players of the Mass Effect or Dragon Age series, games that include several opportunities to initiate same-sex romance. We have identified three different queer playing strategies: imaginative play (queer reading of unspecified or heterosexual characters), stylized performance (the use of gay stereotypes to mark one as queer) and role-playing of a LGBT character. However, players do not seek sexuality in games to the same extent as they do in film or TV, and they tend to use these strategies, and especially the latter two, reluctantly or with reservations. These reservations may be linked to our finding that LGBT players consider their gay (or lesbian) identities disconnected from their identities as players or gamers. This can be explained by the mutual exclusivity of gay communities and the heteronormative game culture.
Gamification and multigamification in the workplace: Expanding the ludic dimensions of work and challenging the work/play dichotomy
Authors: Oravec Jo Ann
Published: October 2015

Gamification approaches in the workplace are encountering strong and passionate critics as well as dedicated proponents as the very notions of games, play, and work are being reconsidered and reframed. Workplaces are incorporating increasing varieties of concurrent and emerging games; some of these games are directly linked to how employees are projected to produce value for an organization and are paid and promoted, while others can be recreational, educational, or even medical (involving health diagnosis or treatment). In effect, many workplace settings have become the platforms for multiple, sometimes interlocking sets of rules, enforcement mechanisms, and related gaming structures. “Multigamification” approaches explicitly recognize game-related complexities and interactions, and provide means for mitigating cognitive overload, character conflicts, and other concerns. Participants can be immersed in technology-enhanced games that infuse social, medical, and economic themes either as a part of strategic initiatives in gamification (and multigamification, as described in this paper) or through emergent and less-tightly structured efforts. The overall wellbeings of organizational participants may relate in some way in how they engage in specific games as well as to how they deal with multiple games either in sequence or simultaneously; one or more games can be designated as “work” and others as “play,” sometimes reflecting traditional narratives that contrast labor deemed as “productive” with recreation. Developers can become active in exploring and tailoring games for specific workplace contexts, addressing issues of intergame compatibility, theme interaction, and synergy as well as participant overload. Multigamification can involve forms of competition among the games themselves as they compete for the limited attention of participants. This paper also addresses the challenging policy and design issues related to workplace games’ effects on participant wellbeing. Emergence of nested and overlapping gaming spheres can increase the complexity of organizational life as well as expand its ludic dimensions.
Public Outreach for Potable Reuse: Bringing the Public to a New Level of Acceptance
Authors: Katz Sara M. , Tennyson Patricia A.
Published: October 2015

Public outreach for potable reuse requires a strategic approach to ensure success in helping the public understand that potable reuse water is safe for drinking.
A New Model for Industry–University Partnerships
Authors: Keck Jonathan C. , Lee Juneseok
Published: October 2015

A research partnership between the California Water Service Co. and San Jose State University has developed critical projects to help address gaps in the knowledge base within the drinking water industry and research communities.
Testing Potable Reuse Messages With a Utility–University Partnership
Authors: Eidson Brent
Published: October 2015

With the help of college students, the City of San Diego discovered unique messaging to share the value of potable reuse with young adults ‐ a critical demographic to educate in fostering the future success of potable reuse projects.
Little Falls Water Treatment Plant: Where History and Innovation Meet
Authors: Pranitis David M.
Published: October 2015

The Little Falls Water Treatment Plant has roots in postcolonial history, having sprung up in Totowa, N.J., on the cutting edge of American industry in the late 1800s. Maintaining its tradition over the years, the plant has continued to improve using modern science and engineering to the benefit of its more than 500,000 customers.
Is It Time for a New Brand and Communications Game Plan?
Authors: Jockers Mark , Davis Adam
Published: October 2015

Water agency managers, you may want to call a timeout and take a close look at your game plan. Your capital needs are increasing, regulations are adding more costs, and state and federal dollars are hard (and getting harder) to come by. And your customers? They feel maxed out, are not very aware of how public services are provided or what they cost, and are in a sour mood these days with … just about everything. Think of it as the start of the fourth quarter in a tight game, and the quality of play that has gotten you to where you are may not be sufficient for crunch time; it is time to play harder and smarter ball. You need to score, which means you need more money now or in the near future. The competition is fiercer than ever before, and there are other community needs, from education to transportation, appealing to state legislatures, Congress, and your customers for limited funds. The ultimate winners are going to be those services the public values the most and considers the highest priority.
Tácito-explícito-tácito: um quase experimento sobre conversão de conhecimento
Authors: Ferraz Janaynna , Sales Jefferson , Almeida Matheus
Published: October 2015

Partindo da teoria da criação do conhecimento, que em parte entende que há um continuum entre os conhecimentos tácito e explícito, o estudo busca compreender se a forma de conversão do conhecimento afeta a qualidade da sua própria criação, uma vez que acredita-se que a externalização tem sido negligenciada, prejudicando, desse modo, a completude da criação do conhecimento empresarial. Para testar tal pressuposto, foi realizado um quase-experimento composto por duas fases que utilizaram três das quatro formas possíveis de conversão do conhecimento, conforme a teoria, a saber: externalização; internalização e socialização. Os participantes foram os colaboradores de uma agência de publicidade e propaganda que foram divididos em dois grupos e submetidos a um teste que buscou verificar a transmissão de novos saberes. Assim, ao primeiro grupo foi dada a ênfase no conhecimento tácito e ao segundo focalizou-se o conhecimento explícito. Houve por parte dos gestores da pesquisa o cuidado de realizar medições das variáveis Qualidade dos conteúdos retransmitidos e Tempo. Para isso, foram atribuídos conceitos, entre zero e cinco, que foram comparados numa análise posterior. Dentre as conclusões, verificou-se que o conhecimento tácito e explicito geram conhecimentos de qualidade semelhantes, embora o conteúdo seja diferente. Dentre outros fatos, notou-se que o repertório de conhecimentos e experiências acumulados dos indivíduos participantes aumenta consideravelmente as possibilidades de resolução de problemas apresentados.
Em direção à melhoria da qualidade de sistemas de informação em saúde no Brasil
Authors: Jerônimo Aline Silva , Ramos Ricardo Argenton
Published: October 2015

A dispersão das informações em saúde com base na melhoria de sua qualidade constitui um dos grandes desafios da sociedade brasileira. No Brasil, as principais fontes de informações da área da saúde estão disponibilizadas através de Sistemas de Informações em Saúde (SIS), em que a produção e a utilização dessas informações envolvem diversos fatores relacionados à qualidade e ao uso desta informação. Este artigo tem como objetivo apresentar uma abordagem para auxiliar a melhoria da qualidade de dados dos sistemas de informação em saúde em âmbito nacional. Através da aferição da qualidade de dados de um sistema de informação em saúde, o Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) os problemas e as soluções foram levantados, gerando dois catálogos, um sobre problemas encontrados e outro de possíveis soluções para esses problemas, podendo ser utilizados para ajudar a melhorar a qualidade de dados em outros sistemas de informação em saúde. Uma validação qualitativa através de questionários aplicados a especialistas na área foi realizada para verificar a aplicabilidade dos catálogos aos possíveis problemas e soluções encontrados. O resultado mostrou-se satisfatório no atendimento dos objetivos propostos inicialmente pelos catálogos. Assim, a elaboração desses instrumentos é o primeiro passo com o objetivo de conduzir a melhoria da qualidade de informações dos SIS no Brasil.
Uma abordagem para captura de informações sobre aplicações que fazem uso de dados abertos
Authors: Oliveira Lairson E. Rodrigues de Alencar , Lóscio Bernadette Farias
Published: October 2015

As recentes iniciativas de abertura de dados, permitindo que qualquer pessoa possa livremente usá-los, reutilizá-los e redistribuí-los, somado ao avanço da interação entre governo e sociedade através da Internet, têm contribuído para que todo cidadão tenha acesso à informação pública. Além disso, quando compartilhado abertamente os dados têm seu valor e seu uso potencializados. Existem vários portais que permitem a catalogação de dados abertos, como o dados.gov.br que é o Portal Brasileiro de Dados abertos. Dentre as plataformas disponíveis para criação de portais de dados, destaca-se o software open source CKAN, que é bastante difundido no domínio de dados abertos e está presente nos principais portais governamentais do mundo inteiro. Esses catálogos de dados são descritos através de vocabulários, que basicamente definem os conceitos e classificam os termos, como se fossem verdadeiras ferramentas conceituais. Contudo, ainda é um grande desafio rastrear o uso dos conjuntos de dados e as aplicações que fazem uso desses dados. Dessa forma, o objetivo deste trabalho é desenvolver uma abordagem para captura de informações sobre aplicações que fazem uso de dados abertos. Assim, como parte da abordagem proposta neste trabalho foram desenvolvidos: i) um vocabulário, denominado APP-OD, que contempla os principais termos usados na descrição de aplicações que fazem o uso de dados abertos, ii) um repositório online, denominado APPCKan, para cadastro, visualização e busca das descrições dessas aplicações e iii) uma extensão para a ferramenta CKAN, que permite a ligação do portal de dados abertos com o repositório APPCkan.
Abordagem dirigida a modelos para o gerenciamento de redes definidas por software
Authors: Lopes Felipe Alencar , Fernandes Stênio Flávio de Lacerda
Published: October 2015

As Redes Definidas por Software (SDN) vêm obtendo grande atenção por parte da comunidade acadêmica e também da indústria, devido a diversos aspectos. Apesar disso, o gerenciamento e o desenvolvimento de aplicações voltadas para este novo campo em redes de computadores ainda são complexos, carentes de metodologias e ferramentas que permitam utilizar todo o nível de abstração possibilitado pelas SDNs. Com foco neste problema, o presente trabalho propõe uma Domain-Specific Modelling Language (DSML), aplicada à abordagem de SDN, aumentando o nível de abstração para o gerenciamento destas redes.