bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Reforms, Productivity, and Efficiency in Banking: The Indian Experience (Distinguished Lecture)
Authors: Rakesh Mohan
Published: August 2018

India embarked on a strategy of economic reforms in the wake of a serious balance-ofpayments crisis in 1991. A central plank of the reforms was reform in the financial sector and, with banks being the mainstay of financial intermediation, the banking sector. The objective of the banking sector reforms was to promote a diversified, efficient and competitive financial system with the ultimate objective of improving the allocative efficiency of resources through operational flexibility, improved financial viability and institutional strengthening. Beginning from 1992, Indian banks were gradually exposed to greater domestic and international competition. India’s approach to banking reforms has been somewhat different from many other countries. Whereas there has not been privatisation of public sector banks, through a process of partial disinvestment a number of public sector banks have been listed in Stock Exchanges and have become subject to market discipline and greater transparency in this manner. Besides, newly opened banks from the private sector and entry and expansion of several foreign banks resulted in greater competition. Consequent to these developments, there has been a consistent decline in the share of public sector banks in total assets of commercial banks and a declining trend of Herfindahl’s concentration index. Improvements in efficiency of the banking system were reflected in a number of indicators, such as, a gradual reduction in cost of intermediation (defined as the ratio of operating expense to total assets) in the post reform period across various bank groups (barring foreign banks), and decline in the non-performing loans. As a result of these changes, there has been an all-around productivity improvement in the Indian banking sector. While the cost income-ratio (i.e., the ratio of operating expenses to total income less interest expense) as well as net interest margin (i.e., the excess of interest income over interest expense, scaled by total bank assets) of Indian banks showed a declining trend during the post-reform period, the business per employee of Indian banks increased over three-fold in real terms exhibiting an annual compound growth rate of nearly 9 percent. At the same time, the profit per employee increased more than five-fold, implying a compound growth of around 17 percent. Branch productivity also recorded concomitant improvements. Such productivity improvements in the banking sector could be driven by two factors: technological improvements, which expands the range of production possibilities and a catching up effect, as peer pressure amongst banks compels them to raise productivity levels. As far as the future of Indian banking is concerned, a number of issues, such as the credit to small and medium enterprises, customers’ interests and financial inclusion, reducing procedural formalities, listing of the public sector banks in the stock exchange and related market discipline are of paramount importance.
Women’s Autonomy and Happiness:The Case of Pakistan
Authors: Syed Mubashir Ali
Published: August 2018

It is generally believed that “autonomy” brings happiness and satisfaction in women’s lives. In this study we examine whether or not the established autonomy indicators are a source of “happiness” for Pakistani women. By using the nationally representative data, only two indicators, i.e., “women’s education” and “decisionmaking authority”, prove to be important factors in finding “very happy” status in women’s life. Additionally, “possession of assets” also proves to be an important factor in providing the “very happy” status in a women’s life. However, the “possession and utilisation of assets” and “going alone outside the house” are not important indicators of a “very happy” status in women’s life in Pakistan and “Labour force participation” is indicative of unhappiness. The results of this study show that not all established indicators of autonomy bring about happiness in the lives of Pakistani women. This is because Pakistani society differs from other societies, in particular the western society, and hence the concept of “autonomy” in bringing about “happiness” in the lives of Pakistani women yields effects different from those in other societies. Thus, there is a need to focus on the advocacy of only those autonomy variables which lead to happiness in a woman’s life, which is the end-goal for women, who form a vital part of the society.
First Meeting of the PIDE Committee on Devolution Reforms in Pakistan
Authors: Durre-e- Nayab
Published: August 2018

The Local Government Ordinance (LGO), formulated by the National Reconstruction Bureau (NRB) in 2000 and promulgated by provincial governments in August 2001, assigns powers, responsibilities, and service delivery functions to three levels of local governments: district, tehsil, and union. Responsibilities for the delivery of social and human development services, such as primary and basic health, education and social welfare, are delegated to the district level, whereas municipal services, such as water, sanitation and urban services are assigned to the tehsil level. The LGO does not only deal with the delivery of public services in its plan but also stresses the need for fiscal decentralisation, claiming that “Fiscal decentralisation is the heart of any devolution exercise. Without fiscal decentralisation no authority is devolved.”
PIDE-LUMS Seminar on the New Governance Effort
Authors: Lubna Hasan
Published: August 2018

Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) and Lahore University of Management Sciences (LUMS) jointly organised a seminar to discuss issues pertaining to “Law and Economics” and “Public Choice”, and their relevance for the future growth prospects of Pakistan. Dr Nadeem Ul Haque, Director, PIDE, and Osama Siddique, Head, Department of Law and Policy, LUMS, highlighted the main issues in their welcome remarks, and raised some basic questions: Can Pakistan achieve its growth target of 10 percent under the current legal framework? Does our law support free enterprise? Can the dual target of growth and free enterprise development be realised under our existing constitution? Do we need to review and make amendments to it? The high point of the meeting was the coming together of eminent lawyers and economists (and social scientists) on one forum and approaching the problem from a multidisciplinary point of view. A healthy debate followed in which some of our distinguished participants even turned the debate upside down by posing question as to what form of economic system are we hoping for. The main issues that emerged out of this deliberation are summarised below.
The Impact of Public Investment on Economic Growth in Pakistan
Authors: Ejaz Ghani
Published: August 2018

This paper explores the role of public investment in the process of economic growth, in the context of Pakistan’s economy, using the vector autoregressive approach (VAR). Based on theoretical considerations, the model also includes private investment and public consumption besides public investment. The results show that growth is largely driven by private investment and that no strong inference can be drawn from the effects of public investment and public consumption on economic growth. JEL Classification: E2, 04. Keywords: Public Investment, Economic Growth.
Trade Policy, Openness, Institutions
Authors: Dawood Mamoon  , S. Masoob Murshed
Published: August 2018

This paper examines the importance of institutions vis-à-vis openness and trade policies in determining per capita income differences across countries. Recent literature has tried to demonstrate that more open economies grow faster. On the other hand, it has also been asserted that it is not openness per se but institutions and good governance that matter in promoting growth. This paper attempts to test this hypothesis across a crosssection of nations. Unlike other papers in the field, we have tested not only for the degree of openness but also for trade policy indicators, as well as a fuller set of six institutional variables. Our broad finding is that although institutions matter, trade policies are also relevant to promoting growth, whereas openness per se has little impact on growth. JEL Classification: F15; O10. Keywords: International Integration; Economic Development.
Inflation in Pakistan
Authors: Mohsin S. Khan
Published: August 2018

This paper examines the factors that explain and help forecast inflation in Pakistan. A simple inflation model is specified that includes standard monetary variables (money supply, credit to the private sector), an activity variable, the interest and the exchange rates, as well as the wheat support price as a supply-side factor. The model is estimated for the period January 1998 to June 2005 on a monthly basis. The results indicate that monetary factors have played a dominant role in recent inflation, affecting inflation with a lag of about one year. Private sector credit growth and broad money growth are also good leading indicators of inflation which can be used to forecast future inflation developments. JEL classification: E31, C22, C32 Keywords: Inflation, Pakistan, Leading Indicators, Forecasting, Monetary Policy
Is Inflation in Pakistan a Monetary Phenomenon?
Authors: M. Ali Khan
Published: August 2018

The paper finds that an increase in money supply over the long-run results in a higher rate of inflation and thus provides support for the quantity theory of money. It establishes that inflation is essentially a monetary phenomenon. However, the money supply does not instantly influence the price levels; the impact of money supply on inflation has a considerable lag of about 9 months. While the study shows that the money supply works through the system in less than a year, it also points out that the system takes rather long to converge to equilibrium if shocks appear in any of the three variables, viz., GDP, money supply, and prices. JEL classification: N15, E31, E51 Keywords: Growth, Inflation, Money Supply, QTM
Why Does Agricultural Growth Dominate Poverty Reduction in Low- and Middle-income Countries?
Authors: Jhon W. Mellor  , Chandrashekhar Rande
Published: August 2018

“Alternative models have to compete on the basis of their ability to give a satisfying account of some facts. Facts ask for explanations, and explanations ask for new facts”. Robert M. Solow, Daedalus (Fall 2005) This paper provides an explanation of the relation between agricultural growth and poverty reduction for open economies with full employment. The analysis also shows that the poverty-reducing impact of agricultural growth in an open economy is far greater if there is unemployed labour or if the supply of labour is highly elastic—conditions often thought to prevail even in open economies. The model draws attention to the critical role of the rural non-tradable sector in poverty reduction. While ample data are available to show that sector to have a large share of employment, even relative to agriculture itself, data for other variables for the sector such as the share of GDP, labour intensity, price, and income elasticities of demand are not available. Thus, an important contribution of the paper is to establish the need for such data if the processes of poverty reduction are to be understood. JEL classification: Q01, I30 Keywords: Agricultural Growth, Poverty, Developing Countries, Open Economy
Poverty and Hunger in India: What is Needed to Eliminate Them
Authors: Arvind Virmani
Published: August 2018

There is a widespread impression among the Indian intelligentsia, foreign scholars, and residents of developed/rich countries that India’s economic growth has not reduced poverty, that globalisation has worsened poverty and/or income distribution, and that there are hundreds of millions of hungry people in India. These arguments are buttressed by recourse to India’s ranking on several social indicators. Esoteric debates about the comparability of survey data and gaps between NSS and NAS add to the confusion and allow ideologues to believe and assert whatever information suits the argument. What are the basic facts about poverty, income distributions, and hunger at an aggregate level? This paper reviews the available data and debates on this subject and comes to a commonsense view. It then tries to link some of the outcomes to the policy framework and programmes of the government. The paper finds that India’s poverty ratio of around 22 percent in 1999-2000 is in line with that observed in countries at similar levels of per capita income. The ratio is relatively high because India is a relatively poor/ low-income country, i.e., with low average income. 90 percent of the countries in the world have a higher per capita (average) income than India. The number of the poor is very high because India’s population is very large, the secondhighest in the world. India’s income distribution as measured by the Gini co-efficient is better than three-fourths of the countries of the world. The consumption share of the poorest 10 percent of the population is the sixth best in the world. Where India has failed as a nation is in improving its basic social indicators like literacy and mortality rates. Much of the failure is a legacy of the three decades of Indian socialism (till 1979-80). The rate of improvement of most indicators has accelerated during the market period (starting in 1980-81). The gap between its level and that of global benchmarks is still wide and its global ranking on most of these social parameters remains very poor. This is the result of government failure. The improvement in social indicators has not kept pace with economic growth and poverty decline, and this has led to increasing interstate disparities in growth and poverty. JEL classification: I3, I32, I38 Keywords: Hunger, Poverty, Public Goods, Public and Quasi-Public Goods and Services, Basic Education, Public Health, Sanitation
Indian Viewpoint - Satyabrata Pal, High Commissioner of India in Pakistan
Authors: Satyabrata Pal
Published: August 2018

Mr. Chairman, Ladies and Gentlemen, The problem with speaking at a valedictory session, without being at the earlier sessions, is that you do not quite know what it is you are saying goodbye to. Today, however, that is less of a problem, because none of us is bidding SAFTA goodbye; it needs a benediction, which I hope you have pronounced, not a valediction. Your Roundtable follows what has been described as the smoothest SAARC summit ever. It went so well because all its members perhaps now believe that it can help them, and that it must roll up its sleeves and work, moving quickly from declarations to implementation.
Moneer Alam. Ageing in India: Socio-economic and Health Dimensions. Delhi: Institute of Economic Growth. 288 pages. Indian Rs 695.00.
Authors: Durr-e- Nayab
Published: August 2018

A while back I read an interesting news item in the Indian daily The Hindustan Times (dated July 21, 2006), giving results of one “HelpAge India” survey, which made me wonder how much things have changed in our part of the world. Among the many findings of the survey the salient ones were that: one out of eight older people feel no one cares they exist; 13 percent feel trapped within their own homes; 21 per- cent feel more or less alone and socialise with very few people; and, most importantly, more elderly couples are choosing to live independently. With these rather unexpected findings still lingering in my mind I came across a book, Ageing in India by Moneer Alam, which deals with the gerontological transition in India and the multifaceted issues linked to it, and, needless to say, I was eager to know what the book had to say.
Singhal Arvind and James W. Dearing (ed.). Communication of Innovations: A Journey with Everett Rogers. New Delhi: Sage Publications. 2006. 259 pages. Paperback. Indian Rs 360.00.
Authors: Shahnaz Hamid
Published: August 2018

The book “Communication of Innovations” comprises of ten essays that focus and highlight the ideas and works of a highly renowned student and proponent of diffusion of innovations, communication networks, and social change—Everett Rogers. Each chapter of the book discusses different aspects of Rogers’s dynamic personality, his individual and remarkable ways of working and advancing in his field. This book presents introductory remarks to Everett Rogers’ personality. His beginnings in the field of communication of innovation, his focus on diffusion of innovation, his optimism, his main intellectual contribution, the combination of the diffusion of innovation models and the main purpose of writing this book to ‘honour the memory and contributions’ of Rogers is also elaborated.
Shorter Notices
Authors: Samina Nazli
Published: August 2018

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Renew Cities to be the Engine of Growth
Authors: Nadeem Ul Haque
Published: August 2018

PIDE Cities Research Programme was initiated in Karachi with a conference titled Cities: the Engine of Growth on November 15-16, 2006. The conference was held in our largest city and was well-attended by economists, architects, town planners, Nazims, government officials, NGOs, journalists, and other citizens. The discussion was animated and about twenty-five speakers addressed the gathering. All points of view were represented and debated.
Market Volatility, Manipulation, and Regulatory Response: A Comparative Study of Bombay and Karachi Stock Markets
Authors: Jamshed Y. Uppal
Published: August 2018

I am extremely grateful to Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad for giving me an opportunity to share my views on “Skill Development for Growth and Productivity”. Pakistan is currently experiencing an exciting period of economic and social change. The post-WTO regime and the global market dictate has exposed Pakistans’ economy to international competitiveness necessitating rapid technological changes in the industry. There is definite and recurring need to optimise human resources through Skill Development efforts for achieving high productivity culture for investments in the industrial, commercial, agriculture and services sectors. There is clear indication that low cost labour will no longer be significant advantage for any business which is not based on productivity charged and quality oriented workforce. Therefore, a growing realisation exists for the huge skill deficiency and the demand for competitive workforce with constant supply from educational, vocational/technical training institutions. These hard facts point towards urgent development of strong network between various stakeholders to achieve skill development for economic development. Indeed skill excellence and human resource development has been acknowledged as the major component of economic and social development that contributes in direct proportion to poverty alleviation and national prosperity.........
Impact of Regulatory Reforms on Labour Efficiency in the Indian and Pakistani Commercial Banks
Authors: Shabbar Jaffry
Published: August 2018

Efficiency plays an important role in the operation of firms. If firms are pursing a policy of shareholder wealth maximisation, this implies that maximum efficiency is extracted from a firm’s resources during the production process, or that the minimum quantity of inputs are used to achieve a desired level of output. This is especially true in the case of labour demand and labour usage, as wage expenditure constitutes a significant portion of the average firm’s cost structure. Knowledge of relative inefficiencies in labour usage will therefore be of great interest to firm and, as such, academic studies on efficiency of labour demand in firms have been relatively forthcoming. These include work on the Indian farming industry [Kumbhakar (1996), Swedish social insurance offices [Kumbhakar and Hjalmarsson (1991)], Tunisian Manufacturing [Haouras, et al. (2003) and Kalimantanian rice production [Padoch (1985)].............
Banning Two-stroke Auto-rickshaws in Lahore: Policy Implications
Authors: Mohammad Rafiq Khan
Published: August 2018

The motorcycles and rickshaws, due to being equipped with two-stroke engines, are the most inefficient vehicles in complete burning of fuel and thus contribute most to emission of air pollutants in the environment. The major pollutants from two-stroke engines are Carbon Monoxide (CO), Nitrogen Oxides (NOx), Hydrocarbons (HC) and Particulate Matter (PM). Their presence in the environment causes a number of respiratory diseases and other illnesses. For example, CO and NOx are notorious irritants of respiratory system and have potential suffocating action. PM causes premature death, and illness. Its presence is accompanied by increased hospital admissions for asthma and other bronchial conditions such as bronchitis, etc.
Is Trade Good for Environment? A Unit Root Cointegration Analysis
Authors: Samina Khalil
Published: August 2018

One of the most debatable issues surrounding globalisation is the concern that trade hurts the environment, both locally and globally. Economists argue that expanding trade from domestic market to international market not only increases market share of each country but also rising competition among the nations and improve efficiency of utilising scarce resources because each country produces those goods in which she has comparative advantages. But on the other hand, environmental economists have opposed global trade and argue that the costs of spreading trade to international markets are depleting natural resources and rising pollution emissions that ultimately deteriorates environmental quality. [Copeland and Taylor (2001), Antweiler, Copeland and Taylor (2001), Chaudhuri and Pfaff (2002), Schmalensee, Stoker and Judson (1996).]
Main Issues for Setting the Civil Service Reform Agenda in Pakistan
Authors: Musharraf Rasool Cyan
Published: August 2018

Civil service reform is not new to the development debate in Pakistan. The role of bureaucracy is discussed every now and then. Civil service reform is nowadays quite uniformly discussed as a major problem for development in Pakistan, or at least so it is considered. Most of the blame for policy and programme failures is assigned to the civil service. Recognising the importance, or persistence of the problem, governments over time have attempted to deal with the issue by setting up committees and commissions, many times in this paper I am presenting a discussion of some pre-eminent issues besetting the civil service in Pakistan in my view unless these issues are addressed at the outset no meaningful reform can be formulated or implemented. Addressing them is paramount for setting an agenda for the reform. Civil service reform due to the complex nature of the problem works at various levels simultaneously. As long as this does not over simplify and aggregate problems it can work well. But for good results disaggregating problems will be required. What is required to be done in one branch might not be needed in the other. Legal instruments with a general and most wide ranging application should deal with basic principles of organisation while providing for differential rules to emerge and give detailed structures. A set of actions to deal with the basic structures will be part of any reform but sometimes what remains ignored is that actions are also needed in other spheres of Pakistan’s public life without which the reform in civil service itself will not attain the cherished goals. The paper takes up discussion of issues from these levels of consideration. It begins with the aggregation framework and goes on to highlight the most urgently felt area of local civil service. It ends by highlighting the complementary actions.
The Sinews of Governance: Bureaucracy, Narrative, and Power under Colonialism and Independence
Authors: Imran Ali
Published: August 2018

This paper attempts to explore the production of an exegesis of written output by a civil bureaucracy, and to compare this output over two periods of governance. On the one part was the British bureaucracy in the Indus region, but more especially the Punjab, during British rule; and on the other the bureaucracy in Pakistan after 1947. The intention of the paper is to analyse the problematic of governance from a somewhat different approach, and one which to the author’s knowledge has yet not been undertaken, in our efforts to understand the power dynamics that have moulded the contours of governance in the Indus region in modern times. I have attempted elsewhere an analysis of these processes and developments.1 Therefore, rather than revisit these materials and arguments, I will suggest here a complementary yet distinct perspective for probing into the complexities of power and governance in this region. The question to be posed is whether, and how, could the emergence of a descriptive and analytical written discourse, by public officials, itself become the articulation of a narrative of power, authority and control. Moreover, in comparing the two periods, we might be able to glean some insights into the capability needs of public management and local and national governance systems, in addressing the challenging political and socio-economic environment facing contemporary Pakistan. These are huge areas of analysis, and mostly uncharted ones. The present paper can only hope to raise some relevant questions, and suggest some pertinent, if tentative, answers.
What Determines the Domestic Prices of Agricultural Commodities in Pakistan?
Authors: Henri Lorie
Published: August 2018

Rarely a month passes-by in Pakistan without complains on the state of basic commodity markets, be it wheat or sugar, cotton or rice. Prices are too high for the consumers, or too low for the farmers; and often the government is asked to intervene, buying for or selling from stocks, prohibiting export or import, increasing or reducing import duties, introducing/withdrawing export taxes, or taking other measures to protect the consumer or producer. It is as if domestic prices can have a life on their own, with the government asked to guarantee “fair” prices for everbody. The resulting on-and-off policy intervention by the government is likely to have had a deleterious effect on the development of the domestic and international trade for these commodities. This is because of the uncertainty so generated, with the private traders always facing the risk of a regime change at a time when import or export contracts have already been signed. As a result too, the role of the state-owned Trading Corporation of Pakistan self-perpetuates, even if the government would like to see it minimised, as it is always being asked to intervene because of the private sector’s “failings”.
Urban Poverty and Governance: The Case of Multan City
Authors: Imran Sharif Chaudhry
Published: August 2018

The issue of poverty is as old as economic development. A significant quantitative research on poverty has been undertaken for many decades all over the world in general and in developing countries in particular. However the issue of urban poverty has not been addressed effectively. Nevertheless urban poverty has until recently, been low on the agenda of development policy not only in the developing world but also in Pakistan because of dominant perception of urban bias and the need to counter this with a focus on rural development policy. The analysis of urban poverty is as necessary as the overall level of poverty in the country. There are many causes and determinants of urban poverty1 but distribution and management of economic and social resources in poverty reduction cannot be ignored. It is internationally recognised that poverty reduction and governance both are interrelated. Bad governance has made poverty reduction efforts ineffective [Blaxall (2000), Eid (2000) and Gupta, et al. (1998)], while poverty reduction projects provide fertile ground for corruption.2 The consensus emerges from this line of thinking is that good governance is necessary and effective for poverty alleviation efforts.
Fiscal Decentralisation and Economic Growth in Pakistan
Authors: Shahnawaz Malik
Published: August 2018

Fiscal decentralisation is seen as a means to enhance the economic efficiency of the government and also promote economic growth. Fiscal decentralisation is the empowerment of fiscal responsibilities to the sub-national governments, involving devolution of powers to tax and spend along with arrangements for correcting the imbalances between resources and obligations. The effectiveness of fiscal decentralisation depends upon: (a) appropriate expenditure assignments—with division of functions among different levels of government depending upon their comparative advantage (called the principle of subsidiarity); (b) appropriate tax or revenue assignments; and (c) the efficient design of a system of transfers and its proper implementation [Kardar (2006)].
Which Institutions Are More Relevant Than Others in Inequality Mitigation?
Authors: Dawood Mamoon
Published: August 2018

During the 1950s, 1960s and most of the 1970s inequality followed declining trends in the most developed and developing countries. However, the inequality trends have been reversed in most countries since the early 1980s. First, inequality started rising in the mid- to late- 1970s in the United States, United Kingdom, Australia and the New Zealand, which were the first among the OECD countries to adopt a neoliberal policy approach. In United Kingdom the increase in inequality was quite pronounced as the Gini coefficient of the distribution of net disposable income rose more than 30 percent between 1978 and 1991, which was twice as fast as that recorded in United States for the same period. The Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands were next to follow where inequality followed a U-shaped pattern. From 1970 to 80, Finland and France also experienced a halt in declining trends in inequality. In Italy inequality rose by 4 points between 1992 and 1995. In 1993 the Gini coefficient for Japan stood at 0.44, which is approximately the same as United States and far higher than the likes of Sweden and Denmark. Most of this increase in income inequality in these industrialised countries is explained by a rise in earnings inequality [Cornia, et al. (2004)]. Since 1989, inequality in the transition countries of Central Europe has also witnessed increasing trends but they remain modest when compared to former USSR and Southeastern Europe where the Gini coefficients rose on average by 10-20 points which is 304 times faster than the Gini in Central Europe. The rise in inequality in this region has been attributed to rise in returns to education following liberalisation [Rutkowski (1999)].
Economics of Regaining Office: The Case of Pakistan (1947-2005)
Authors: Muhammad Shahid Akram
Published: August 2018

Political business cycle (PBC) can be defined as fluctuations in the economy due to an attempt of a government to manipulate the economy prior to elections for favourable outcomes i.e. regaining its office. The concept of policy cycles gained a good deal of attention by the economists during mid 70s. Though most of the researchers attribute the PBC theory to Schumpeter (1939) and Kalecki (1943) but the seminal work in the theory of PBC is Nordhaus (1975).
Inaugural Address
Authors: Shaukat Aziz
Published: August 2018

Excellencies, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen, Assalam-o-Alaikum and Good Morning It is a privilege to be in your midst today in the Annual General Meeting and Conference of the Pakistan Society of Development Economists. This is the fourth time in my seven years of public life here that I have the opportunity of interacting with such a distinguished gathering of economists, academicians, and scholars at this forum. I cannot help but think about my first interaction with this gathering 7 years ago. It was the 15th AGM of PSDE in November 1999. I had assumed responsibility as Finance Minister a few weeks ago and I took the opportunity to present a roadmap to this very audience. I am happy to return today to tell you what we have been able to achieve, the challenges we face and our plans for the future. I expect you—the research community— to help us in preparing better policies to support the progress that we have made so far. The economists present here know the story of our progress intimately so I will not go into any details. You would recall that seven years ago, our country was in the middle of a major crisis. Our economy was in dire straits. The state of governance left much to be desired. We were also isolated with mounting tensions on our borders. We have come a long way since then!
Towards Reorientating the Role of the Government in Pakistan (The Quaid-i-Azam Lecture)
Authors: Abdul Hafeez Shaikh
Published: August 2018

I feel it a privilege to be asked to give the Quaid-i-Azam lecture on the occasion of the 22nd Annual Meeting of the Pakistan Society of Development Economists (PSDE). At a time when sustainability appears difficult and institutions are not finding it easy to take hold, it is a source of legitimate pride that the PSDE has been able to meet consecutively for 22 years and to bring economists together to discuss current ideas, present latest research, and to think about our country: its economy; its institutions and its future; and also to think about our profession, and the role it can play in our country, in understanding and interpreting its past and in shaping and influencing its future. And of course it is a good opportunity for us to have some fun and renew the bonds of friendship. The theme for this year’s meetings—governance—is both timely and important. And it is a tribute to the resourcefulness of the organisers, in particular the President of PSDE, Dr Nadeem Ul Haque that he has been able to attract high quality participation from the academic and policy circles of Pakistan.
The Future Governance Agenda for Country Assistance Strategies: An Approach to Governance Reform (The Iqbal Memorial Lecture)
Authors: Daniyal Aziz
Published: August 2018

The development industry is increasingly recognising that institutional constraints in developing countries are fast becoming a primary limiting factor for growth. Institutional decay and breakdown is also placing the stability of democratic political systems at risk. If this decay and breakdown is not reversed, ultimately democracy and free markets in developing countries will also face increasing risks thereby creating further negative impacts on institutions. Reversing this vicious cycle must be the subject of international development pre-eminence as all “sectors” rely on primary institutions to function.1 The framework for institutional assistance interventions to developing countries is missing or has remained marginally addressed. The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and the Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) do not directly address the governance aspect of the post colonial societies and its role in achieving poverty reduction or millennium development goals.2 If “institution matter” what should the international assistance approach to designing interventions that promote governance and institutional revival be? What is the knowledge base required to design governance interventions? What is the new governance research that can produce that knowledge base?
Circuit Optimization for Enhancing the Output Power of a Piezoelectric Energy Harvester
Authors: Zargarani Anahita , Mahmoodi S. Nima
Published: August 2018

In this paper, a new method is proposed for improving a piezoelectric energy harvester’s output power. A piezoelectric vibration energy harvester has an inherent internal capacitance. The new approach adopts inductance to reduce the reactance of the internal capacitance and enhance the output power. To show the practicality of this method, four electrical circuits are investigated numerically and experimentally for a piezoelectric beam energy harvester: Simple Resistive Load, Inductive Load, standard AC-DC, and Inductive AC-DC circuits. An Inductive Load circuit is built by adding an inductor to a Simple Resistive Load circuit, while an Inductive AC-DC circuit is built by adding an inductor to a standard AC-DC circuit. Experimental results indicate that the Inductive Load and the Inductive AC-DC circuits avail the Simple Resistive Load and standard AC-DC circuits respectively. The inductive AC-DC circuit shows a 6.7% increase in the output power compared to the standard AC-DC circuit.
TÜRKİYE’DE TURİZM GELİRLERİ İLE EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLİŞKİSİ: ENGLE GRANGER EŞBÜTÜNLEŞME TESTİ VE VAR MODEL
Authors: Dilber İlkay , Kılıç Jiyan
Published: August 2018

Turizm sektörü küresel dünya ekonomisinde hızlı gelişen sektörlerden bir tanesidir. Özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkeler için vazgeçilmez bir sektördür. Dolayısıyla, bu çalışmada, turizm sektörünün ekonomiye olan katkısı turizm gelirleri ile ekonomik büyüme ilişkisi altında test edilmektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı; Türkiye’ nin 1995 – 2016 dönem aralığında turizm gelirleri ve GSYH arasında herhangi bir ilişkinin olup olmadığını belirlemektir. İlişkiyi test etmek için; Engle Granger Eşbütünleşme testi ve VAR analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgular sonucunda; turizm gelirlerinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki pozitif etkisi ve her iki değişken arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişkinin varlığı tespit edilmiştir.
Prasasti Singkat Dari Empat Buah Makam Islam Dan Sebuah Gua di Daerah Tuban
Authors: Atmodjo Sukarto K.
Published: August 2018

Antara tanggal 19-28 September 1981 saya mendapat kesempatan mengunjungi beberapa obyek sejarah dan purbakala di daerah Kabupaten Tuban. Obyek itu berupa arca-arca purba agama Hindu, prasasti, gua dan beberapa buah makam Islam. Sebuah benda purbakala yang menarik perhatian yaitu prasasti batu di desa Bandungreja, Kec. Plumpan , Kab. Tuban. Prasasti itu berjumlah dua buah dan terletak kira-kira 40 meter di sebelah utara aliran Bengawan Sala. Keduanya bertarikh 1277 Saka dan menyebut perkataan hakuti Tuban. Karena itu prasasti Bandungreja saya sebut prasasti Tuban I dan Tuban II. Uraian selengkapnya telah dibuat di dalam karangan saya berjudul 'Sedikit Tentang Nama Kota Tuban dan Lamongan' sewaktu diselenggarakan pekan ceramah Kegiatan Ilmiah dalam Rangka Sumpah Pemuda Dari Lustrum VI Fakultas Sastra Dan Kebudayaan Universitas Gadjah Mada, Yogyakarta pada tanggal 24-25 Oktober 1980.
NAGARAKERTAGAMA DAN TROWULAN
Authors: Wibowo A.S.
Published: August 2018

Ada dua sumber utama untuk mengetahui fisik kota zaman Majapahit. Yang pertama adalah kitab Nagarakertagama (=Nag.) yang digubah oleh Prapanca tabun 1365, khususnya pupuh 8-12; yang kedua adalah daerah Trowulan di kabupaten Mojokerto (Jawa Timur) yang hingga kini diperkirakan menjadi lokasi ibukota Majapahit. Namun sayangnya kita masih belum mampu untuk memadukan kedua sumber itu menjadi satu. Tidak satupun hal yang disebutkan Prapanca dapat secara pasti diidentifikasikan dengan salah satu peninggalan arkeologi di Trowulan. Atau, sebaliknya, tidak satupun peninggalan arkeologi yang dijumpai di Trowulan dapat kita carikan padanannya dalam Nag.
PRASASTI RUMWIGA
Authors: Suhadi Machi
Published: August 2018

Prasasti Rumwiga I dan Rumwiga II yang berupa lempeng tembaga ini ditemukan di desa Payak, Kecamatan Srimulyo, Kabupaten Bantul, pada tahun 1981 dan sekarang disimpan di Kantor Suaka Peninggalan Sejarah dan Purbakala Daerah lstimewa Yogyakarta di Bogem. Beberapa sarjana Indonesia sudah membacanya, antara lain Bapak Boechari dan Bapak M.M. Soekarto, tetapi belum ada yang menerbitkan. Prasasti Rumwiga I ditranskripsikan pada tanggal 1 Desember 1982 dan prasasti Rumwiga II ditranskripsikan pada tanggal 4 Desember 1982.Karangan ini yang berupa transkripsi dan terjemahannya saja hanyalah dimaksudkan sebagai bahan informasi bagi kalangan di luar peneliti epigrafi agar isinya segera dapat diketahui dan dapat dimanfaatkan untuk penyusunan kronologi sejarah Jawa Tengah pada awal abad ke X Masehi.
Accuracy Assessment of Various Resolutions Digital Cameras For Close Range Photogrammetry Applications
Authors: AL-Baghdadi Jasim Ahmed Ali , Alizze Hassan Ali , Abed AL-Hussein Kasim
Published: August 2018

Due to the great evolution in digital commercial cameras, several studies have addressed the using of such cameras in different civil and close-range applications such as 3D models generation. However, previous studies have not discussed a precise relationship between a camera resolution and the accuracy of the models generated based on images of this camera. Therefore the current study aims to evaluate the accuracy of the derived 3D buildings models captured by different resolution cameras. The digital photogrammetric methods were devoted to derive 3D models using the data of various resolution cameras and analyze their accuracies. This investigation involves selecting three different resolution cameras (low, medium and high) and evaluating their calibration accuracies. Assessing the accuracy of the three selected cameras in capturing indoor and outdoor objects; and analyzing the accuracy and the quality of the produced models. The study revealed that:1) It is recommended to use the photos of a high-resolution camera for producing precise 3D models of objects in the outdoor environment especially when the camera/object distance is more than 40 m because the accuracy of the  produced models can be  precise (RMSE ±10.36mm) with excellent quality; 2) The Low-resolution camera can be utilised to produce adequate 3D models of object in the indoor environment (RMSE ±6.32mm) especially when the camera/object distance is less than 40 m.
Monitoring Land Cover Change Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques: a Case Study of Al-Dalmaj Marsh, Iraq
Authors: Kadhim Marwah Moojid
Published: August 2018

Al-Dalmaj marsh and the near surrounding area is a very promising area for energy resources, tourism, agricultural and industrial activities. Over the past century, the Al-Dalmaje marsh and near surroundings area endrous from a number of changes. The current study highlights the spatial and temporal changes detection in land cover for Al-Dalmaj marsh and near surroundings area using different analyses methods the supervised maximum likelihood classification method, the Normalized  Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Geographic Information Systems(GIS),  and Remote Sensing (RS). Techniques spectral indices were used in this study to determine the change of wetlands and drylands area and of other land classes, through analyses Landsat images for different three years (1990, 2003, 2016). The results indicated that there was an annual increase in vegetation was from 1990 with 980.68 km2, and 1420.35km2 in 2003 to 2072.98km2 in 2016. Whereas, the annual water coverage was about 185.95km2 in 1990 then dropped to 68.27km2 in 2003, and rose to 180.23 km2 in 2016. The water coverage increasing was on the account of barren lands areas, which were significantly decreased. These collected data can be used to deliver accurate information of the values of vegetation,water, wetlands and drylands sustainability of resources which can be used to make plans to increase tourism and protected areas by using barren lands which cannot be reclaimed for agriculture, and cultivate a new renewable energy can be set up  as solar power stations.
An Optimum Strategy for Producing Precise GPS Satellite Orbits using Double-Differenced Observations
Authors: Alhamadani Oday Yaseen Mohamed Zeki
Published: August 2018

Both the double-differenced and zero-differenced GNSS positioning strategies have been widely used by the geodesists for different geodetic applications which are demanded for reliable and precise positions. A closer inspection of the requirements of these two GNSS positioning techniques, the zero-differenced positioning, which is known as Precise Point Positioning (PPP), has gained a special importance due to three main reasons. Firstly, the effective applications of PPP for geodetic purposes and precise applications depend entirely on the availability of the precise satellite products which consist of precise satellite orbital elements, precise satellite clock corrections, and Earth orientation parameters. Secondly, the PPP processing strategy has been employed by the International GNSS Service (IGS) and IGS analysis centers to evaluate their products in terms of homogeneity and precision over a long period of time. Thirdly, the precise positions, which are determined using PPP technique, and are referenced directly to the geodetic reference frame of the satellite orbital parameters. Thus, the definition of the geodetic datum of the site coordinates using different strategies plays an enormous role in the process of generation satellite orbital parameters which have to be compatible with the corresponding satellite clock corrections and the Earth orientation parameters. This study focuses on producing uninterrupted series of satellite orbit and clock products using different criteria and assesses these products using PPP. The double-difference processing technique was used to achieve the goal of this study by Bernese GPS software version 5.0. Twenty-two globally distributed IGS stations were selected to run PPP based on the generated products and then compare the results with corresponding PPP results which were created based on the IGS rapid products. The comparison pointed to a significant improvement in the generated precise products which have considerably increased the precision of positions. What is more, this study stated that there is an observable agreement between the horizontal positions accuracies which are generated using different techniques for modeling the reference frame.
Thermo-mechanical testing of TiO2 functional coatings using friction stir processing
Authors: Stummer Maximilian , Weiß Christopher , Enzinger Norbert
Published: August 2018

TiO2 micro powder was deposited onto an aluminum substrate by atmospheric plasma spraying resulting in 200 μm thick coatings. These coatings were characterized, whereby typical layer properties like porosity, layer thickness and hardness were investigated. Subsequently, a thermo-mechanical load was applied to the TiO2 coating by friction stir processing. This testing procedure indicates several advantages. First, specific load cycles can be applied at high accuracy using specific parameter sets. Secondly, different tool geometries can be used for testing, resulting in countless possible load cases and testing scenarios. As a result, the thermal properties of the TiO2 coating were investigated and compared as a function of a stepwise increased testing load. To complete the experimental results, a numerical simulation of the testing process was set up to estimate the transient heat flow of the TiO2 coating during friction stir processing.
Essential Work of Fracture: Bestimmung des gültigen Ligamentbereiches mittels digitaler 3D-Bildkorrelation
Authors: Heyn Johannes , Kaiser Johannes , Bonten Christian
Published: August 2018

Kurzfassung

Die Methode der Essential Work of Fracture ist ein Konzept der Fließbruchmechanik und eignet sich hervorragend zur Werkstoffoptimierung von duktilen Kunststoffen. Sie zeichnet sich, unter Beachtung gewisser Restriktionen, durch eine relativ einfache experimentelle Durchführbarkeit und Ergebnisinterpretation aus. Speziell die Gewährleistung des ebenen Spannungszustands, eine Grundvoraussetzung zur Anwendung dieser Methode, wird maßgeblich durch den gewählten Ligamentbereich der Prüfkörper beeinflusst. Mit der digitalen 3D-Bildkorrelation wird ein Verfahren vorgestellt, mit dem es möglich ist, sowohl die vollkommene Plastifizierung des Ligamentbereiches zu überprüfen als auch die minimal zulässige Ligamentuntergrenze zu definieren und zu überprüfen. Durch die mit digitaler 3D-Bildkorrelation unterstützte Werkstoffuntersuchung mit der Methode der Essential Work of Fracture ist es möglich, die Genauigkeit und die Verlässlichkeit der Ergebnisse zu steigern.