bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Application of the Bayesian calibration methodology for the parameter estimation in CoupModel
Authors: Conrad Y. , Fohrer N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This study provides results for the optimization strategy of highly parameterized models, especially with a high number of unknown input parameters and joint problems in terms of sufficient parameter space. Consequently, the uncertainty in model parameterization and measurements must be considered when highly variable nitrogen losses, e.g. N leaching, are to be predicted. The Bayesian calibration methodology was used to investigate the parameter uncertainty of the process-based CoupModel. Bayesian methods link prior probability distributions of input parameters to likelihood estimates of the simulation results by comparison with measured values. The uncertainty in the updated posterior parameters can be used to conduct an uncertainty analysis of the model output. A number of 24 model variables were optimized during 20 000 simulations to find the "optimum" value for each parameter. The likelihood was computed by comparing simulation results with observed values of 23 output variables including soil water contents, soil temperatures, groundwater level, soil mineral nitrogen, nitrate concentrations below the root zone, denitrification and harvested carbon from grassland plots in Northern Germany for the period 1997–2002. The posterior parameter space was sampled with the Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach to obtain plot-specific posterior parameter distributions for each system. Posterior distributions of the parameters narrowed down in the accepted runs, thus uncertainty decreased. Results from the single-plot optimization showed a plausible reproduction of soil temperatures, soil water contents and water tensions in different soil depths for both systems. The model performed better for these abiotic system properties compared to the results for harvested carbon and soil mineral nitrogen dynamics. The high variability in modeled nitrogen leaching showed that the soil nitrogen conditions are highly uncertain associated with low modeling efficiencies. Simulated nitrate leaching was compared to more general, site-specific estimations, indicating a higher leaching during the seepage periods for both simulated grassland systems.
Ecohydrological modelling of water discharge and nitrate loads in a mesoscale lowland catchment, Germany
Authors: Lam Q. D. , Schmalz B. , Fohrer N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The aims of this study are to identify the capacities of applying an ecohydrological model for simulating flow and to assess the impact of point and non-point source pollution on nitrate loads in a complex lowland catchment, which has special hydrological characteristics in comparison with those of other catchments. The study area Kielstau catchment has a size of approximately 50 km2 and is located in the North German lowlands. The water quality is not only influenced by the predominating agricultural land use in the catchment as cropland and pasture, but also by six municipal wastewater treatment plants. Ecohydrological models like the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) are useful tools for simulating nutrient loads in river catchments. Diffuse entries from the agriculture resulting from fertilizers as well as punctual entries from the wastewater treatment plants are implemented in the model set-up. The results of this study show good agreement between simulated and measured daily discharges with a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and a correlation coefficient of 0.76 and 0.88 for the calibration period (November 1998 to October 2004); 0.75 and 0.92 for the validation period (November 2004 to December 2007). The model efficiency for daily nitrate loads is 0.64 and 0.5 for the calibration period (June 2005 to May 2007) and the validation period (June 2007 to December 2007), respectively. The study revealed that SWAT performed satisfactorily in simulating daily flow and nitrate loads at the lowland catchment in Northern Germany.
The Volta Basin Water Allocation System: assessing the impact of small-scale reservoir development on the water resources of the Volta basin, West Africa
Authors: Leemhuis C. , Jung G. , Kasei R. , Liebe J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the Volta Basin, infrastructure watershed development with respect to the impact of climate conditions is hotly debated due to the lack of adequate tools to model the consequences of such development. There is an ongoing debate on the impact of further development of small and medium scale reservoirs on the water level of Lake Volta, which is essential for hydropower generation at the Akosombo power plant. The GLOWA Volta Project (GVP) has developed a Volta Basin Water Allocation System (VB-WAS), a decision support tool that allows assessing the impact of infrastructure development in the basin on the availability of current and future water resources, given the current or future climate conditions. The simulated historic and future discharge time series of the joint climate-hydrological modeling approach (MM5/WaSiM-ETH) serve as input data for a river basin management model (MIKE BASIN). MIKE BASIN uses a network approach, and allows fast simulations of water allocation and of the consequences of different development scenarios on the available water resources. The impact of the expansion of small and medium scale reservoirs on the stored volume of Lake Volta has been quantified and assessed in comparison with the impact of climate variability on the water resources of the basin.
SRTM DEM levels over papyrus swamp vegetation – a correction approach
Authors: Petersen G. , Lebed I. , Fohrer N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The SRTM DEM, a digital elevation model based on the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission of February 2000 is a source of elevation data with nearly worldwide coverage. It has proven its usefulness in various regions but problems persist for densely vegetated areas where, caused by the organic matter and water content of the vegetation, the radar signal is reflected at some level between the vegetation canopy and the ground level. This level varies with different types and densities of vegetation cover and has so far not been assessed for papyrus areas. The paper describes the approach and establishment of a correction factor for a pilot area in the Sudd swamps of southern Sudan based on comparison of SRTM reference levels and ground control points collected during field surveys between 2004 and 2006. Results show a correction factor between the sensed and the real surface of 4.66 m and a average penetration depth of the radar signal into the dense papyrus vegetation of 0.34 m.
Comparing model sensitivities of different landscapes using the ecohydrological SWAT model
Authors: Schmalz B. , Fohrer N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Lowland areas are characterised by specific properties, such as flat topography, low hydraulic gradients, shallow groundwater, and high potential for water retention in peatland and lakes. The investigated mesoscale catchments Stör, Treene and Kielstau are located in Northern Germany within lowland areas. Covering areas from 50 to 517 km2, these rural catchments have sandy, loamy and peaty soils and are drained in high fraction by open ditches and tile drainage. Using the river basin model SWAT, sensitivity analyses were carried out through an automatic routine that is based on the Latin-Hypercube (LH) and a One-factor-At-a-Time (OAT) sampling. The objective of this study is to investigate how specific landscape features influence the model behaviour. There are two research questions: a) What are the most sensitive parameters in the studied lowland catchments? b) What differences occur between these landscape features in comparison to mountainous or low mountain range catchments? The results show that groundwater and soil parameters were found to be most sensitive in the studied lowland catchments and they turned out to be the most influential factors on simulated water discharge. The most sensitive parameter was the threshold water level in shallow aquifer for baseflow (GWQMN). In contrast, many studies of mountainous or low mountain range catchments show that the most sensitive parameters were the surface runoff parameters.
Land-use effects on flood generation – considering soil hydraulic measurements in modelling
Authors: Wahren A. , Feger K.-H. , Schwärzel K. , Münch A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The investigation in the catchment of the Mulde (51°0'55" N, 13°15'54" E Saxony, Germany) researches the effect of afforestation measures on the soil hydraulic properties. The concept of a "false chronosequence" was used to quantify the time-dependent dynamical character of the forest impact. Four adjacent plots were identified at a test location with comparable pedological start conditions and a set of tree stands of different age: (1) arable field (initial state); (2) 6-year-old afforestation; (3) 50-year-old afforestation; (4) ancient natural forest ("target" stocking). Water retention curves and unsaturated conductivities were analysed in the lab. In the field, the undisturbed infiltration capacities were measured quantitatively (hood infiltrometer) and qualitatively (brilliant blue tracer). Pronounced differences between all 4 plots were detected. The afforestation causes an increased infiltration and soil water retention potential. Especially the topsoil layers showed a distinct increase in conductivity and portion of coarse/middle pores. The influence of these changes on rainfall-runoff calculations at the test location was analysed in this study.
Mass balance evolution of Martial Este Glacier, Tierra del Fuego (Argentina) for the period 1960–2099
Authors: Buttstädt M. , Möller M. , Iturraspe R. , Schneider C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Martial Este Glacier in southern Tierra del Fuego was studied in order to estimate the surface mass balance from 1960 until 2099. For this reason a degree-day model was calibrated. Air temperature and precipitation data obtained from 3 weather stations as well as glaciological measurements were applied. The model was driven using a vertical air temperature gradient of 0.69 K/100 m, a degree-day factor for snow of 4.7 mm w.e. K−1 day−1, a degree-day factor for ice of 9.4 mm w.e. K−1 day−1 and a precipitation gradient of 22%/100 m. For the purpose of surface mass balance reconstruction for the time period 1960 until 2006 a winter vertical air temperature gradient of 0.57 K/100 m and a summer vertical air temperature gradient of 0.71 K/100 m were added as well as a digital terrain model. The key finding is an almost continuous negative mass balance of −772 mm w.e. a−1 throughout this period. While the calculation of the mass balance for the period 1960–2006 is based on instrumental records, the mass balance for the years 2007 until 2099 was estimated based on the IPCC SRES A2-scenario. To accomplish this estimation, the dataset of the global climate model HadCM3 was statistically downscaled to fit local conditions at Martial Este Glacier. Subsequently, the downscaled air temperature and precipitation were applied to a volume-area scaling glacier change model. Findings reveal an enduring deglaciation resulting in a surface area reduction of nearly 93% until 2099. This implicates that the Martial Este Glacier might be melted off at the beginning of the 22nd century.
Preliminary re-evaluation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment in Chile: from Arica to Taitao Peninsula
Authors: Leyton F. , Ruiz S. , Sepúlveda S. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Chile is one of the most seismically active countries in the world; indeed, having witnessed very large earthquakes associated with high horizontal peak ground accelerations, the use of probabilistic hazard assessment is an important tool in any decision-making. In the present study, we review all the available information to improve the estimation of the probabilistic seismic hazard caused by two main sources: shallow interplate, thrust earthquakes and intermediate depth, intraplate earthquakes. Using previously defined seismic zones, we compute Gutenberg-Richter laws and, along with appropriate attenuation laws, revaluate the probabilistic seismic hazard assessments in Chile. We obtain expected horizontal peak ground acceleration with a 10% of probability of being exceeded in 50 years, reaching from 0.6 g up 1.0 g in the coast and between 0.4 g and 0.6 g towards the Andes Mountains, with larger values in Northern part of the country. The present study improves our knowledge of geological hazards in Chile, enabling the mitigation of important human and material losses due to large earthquakes in the future.
Mass wasting at the base of the south central Chilean continental margin: the Reloca Slide
Authors: Völker D. , Weinrebe W. , Behrmann J. H. , Bialas J. , Klaeschen D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Offshore south central Chile (35° S–42° S), the morphology of the lowermost continental slope and trench floor witnesses a voluminous submarine mass-wasting event. The blocky slide body deposited in the Chile Trench at 73°46´ W 35°35´ S was targeted for study during RRS JAMES COOK Cruise JC23 and termed Reloca Slide. Its size of about 24 km3, its steep and high headscarp, the spatial distribution of slide deposits and the cohesive nature of major slide blocks make it interesting to address the issue of tsunami generation. We have obtained seismic reflection data that partly reveal the internal structure of the slide body. Gravity core samples were retrieved that will allow the slide to be dated and linked to the history of sedimentation and slope stability along this particular segment of the Chilean convergent margin. At present we assume a Holocene age for the sliding event.
Environmental records from temperate glacier ice on Nevado Coropuna saddle, southern Peru
Authors: Herreros J. , Moreno I. , Taupin J.-D. , Ginot P. , Patris N. , De Angelis M. , Ledru M.-P. , Delachaux F. , Schotterer U.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We investigated past climate variability and the zonal short and long-range transport of air masses in tropical South America using chemical, isotopic and palynological signals from a 42 m-long ice core recovered in 2003 from the saddle of the Nevado Coropuna, southern Peru (72°39´ W; 15°32´ S; 6080 m a.s.l.). We found that precipitation at this site depends mainly on the easterly circulation of air masses originated from the tropical Atlantic Ocean. Nevertheless, sporadic Pacific air masses arrivals, and strong cold waves coming from southern South America reach this altitude site. In spite of post-depositional effects, we were able to identify two strong ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) event signatures (1982–1983 and 1992) and the eruptive activity of the nearby Sabancaya volcano (1994).
The Andes climate and weather
Authors: Garreaud R. D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper documents the main features of the weather, climate and climate variability over Andes cordillera in South America on the basis of instrumental observations. We first provide a basic physical understanding of the mean annual cycle of the atmospheric circulation and precipitation and over the Andes and adjacent lowlands. In particular, the diversity of precipitation, temperature and wind patterns is interpreted in terms of the long meridional extent of the Andes and the disruption of the large-scale circulation by this formidable topographic barrier. We also document the impact of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomenon on the temperature and precipitation regimes along the Andes.
A quantitative evaluation of the role of the Argentinean Col and the Low Pressure Tongue East of the Andes for frontogenesis in the South American subtropics
Authors: Barbosa H. M. J. , Arraut J. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Previous studies have found the South American subtropics to exhibit high climatological frontogenesis in equivalent potential temperature during the austral summer. An important contribution to this pattern is given by frontogenesis over the Argentinean Col (AC), which separates the Northwestern Argentinean Low (NAL) from transient troughs to the south of it. The NAL and the Low Pressure Tongue east of the Andes (LPT) promote efficient transport of Amazonian humidity to the subtropics during the incursion of transient disturbances over the continent. The convergence of this strong warm and humid flow with mid-latitude air brought into the subtropics by the disturbance occurs preferentially in the neighborhood of the AC. The main difficulty in quantifying the contribution of the NAL, AC and LPT structure to frontogenesis in the South American subtropics is the automatic detection of the AC and LPT. In this paper an algorithm developed to this end is briefly presented and applied to obtain statistics on the role of these structures in frontogenesis. Six-hourly data from ECMWF ERA-40 Reanalysis over 21 austral summer periods (December–March) is used. Occurrences of the AC are highly concentrated between 34–39° S and 66–69° W, being present in this region in 42% of the time instants analyzed. The spatial average of the positive values of the frontogenesis over this region was calculated for each time step as a measure of intensity and histograms were built for the cases when the AC was and was not found inside this region. Mean, median and mode are larger for the distribution of cases with the presence of the AC. In addition, we present the frequency of occurrence of the AC as a function of the frontogenesis, showing that it grows with the intensity of the frontogenesis, rising above the 0.955 quantile. We have not found any correlation between the AC frequency and the frontolysis intensity.
Comparative study of atmospheric water vapor budget associated with precipitation in Central US and eastern Mediterranean
Authors: Zangvil A. , Lamb P. J. , Portis D. H. , Jin F. , Malka S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Water vapor budget (WVB) analysis is a powerful tool for studying processes leading to precipitation (P), since the linkages among atmospheric dynamics, water vapor fields, surface conditions, and P are constrained by the moisture continuity equation. This paper compares WVB calculations over the US Midwest (MW), the US Southern Great Plains (SGP), and the eastern Mediterranean Sea (EM) during their seasons of maximum P. Despite the inter-regional differences in time of year, size of region, and surface characteristics, the WVBs over these regions have common features. First, the change in precipitable water (dPW) is highly correlated with the moisture flux divergence (MFD) and not evaporation (E), implying that atmospheric humidity is affected more by the large-scale atmospheric circulation than land-atmosphere interactions. Second, P is positively correlated with moisture inflow (IF/A). However, a pronounced difference exists between the North American and the Mediterranean study regions with respect to the processes associated with increased P. For the MW and the SGP, increased P is associated with moisture flux convergence (−MFD) due to increased IF/A. In contrast, increased P over the EM is not associated with −MFD, since both the outflow (OF/A) and IF/A increase at similar rates. Recycling ratio (R) estimates were calculated for each region using an equation previously developed. The moisture recycling methodology involves the externally advected versus locally evaporated contributions to P being expressed in terms of a "bulk" formulation in which IF/A and OF/A are defined at the boundaries of the study area. Due to its scale dependence, R cannot be directly compared among the different regions, and a normalization procedure was developed for this comparative study. Its results suggest the normalized R ranges between 12-25% for the study regions, with the value for the oceanic EM being somewhat larger than over the continental MW and SGP.
Future changes in the relationship of precipitation intensity in Eastern Mediterranean with large scale circulation
Authors: Hatzaki M. , Flocas H. A. , Oikonomou C. , Giannakopoulos C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The objective of this study is to investigate the linkage of large-scale upper air circulation over the greater European area with intense precipitation events over Eastern Mediterranean and then to estimate potential changes in the atmospheric patterns in the future, under global warming conditions. For this purpose, results from the regional climate model HadRM3P and Global Circulation Model HadAM3P have been used for the present period 1960–1990 (control run) and the future period 2070–2100 based on the B2a IPCC emission scenario. For the identification of the precipitation extremes the Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII) was employed. Our analysis has shown a notable relation of extreme events with the East Atlantic and Scandinavia teleconnection patterns, as well as the Eastern Mediterranean Pattern (EMP) during the wet period. In the future, similar patterns are found, with different magnitude and position, following the projected changes in atmospheric circulation over Europe.
High-impact floods and flash floods in Mediterranean countries: the FLASH preliminary database
Authors: Llasat M. C. , Llasat-Botija M. , Prat M. A. , Porcú F. , Price C. , Mugnai A. , Lagouvardos K. , Kotroni V. , Katsanos D. , Michaelides S. , Yair Y. , Savvidou K. , Nicolaides K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper contains a preliminary analysis of flood risk in Mediterranean countries, conducted within the framework of the FLASH European Project. All flood events recorded between 1990 and 2006 in the Mediterranean region have been included in the study. Results of previous international projects (STORM, SPHERE, AMPHORE, RINAMED and MEDEX), as well as information provided by FLASH Project partners and data included in scientific papers were the main source used in building this database. All the above information had been dispersed in various places, and an attempt was made here to create, for the first time, a verified and complete single database for the entire Mediterranean region. The work analyses the spatial and temporal distribution of flood events, as well as their social impact, with special attention to certain case studies that have been analysed in detail.
Integration of ground-penetrating radar, ultrasonic tests and infrared thermography for the analysis of a precious medieval rose window
Authors: Nuzzo L. , Calia A. , Liberatore D. , Masini N. , Rizzo E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The integration of high-resolution, non-invasive geophysical techniques (such as ground-penetrating radar or GPR) with emerging sensing techniques (acoustics, thermography) can complement limited destructive tests to provide a suitable methodology for a multi-scale assessment of the state of preservation, material and construction components of monuments. This paper presents the results of the application of GPR, infrared thermography (IRT) and ultrasonic tests to the 13th century rose window of Troia Cathedral (Apulia, Italy), affected by widespread decay and instability problems caused by the 1731 earthquake and reactivated by recent seismic activity. This integrated approach provided a wide amount of complementary information at different scales, ranging from the sub-centimetre size of the metallic joints between the various architectural elements, narrow fractures and thin mortar fillings, up to the sub-metre scale of the internal masonry structure of the circular ashlar curb linking the rose window to the façade, which was essential to understand the original building technique and to design an effective restoration strategy.
Magnetic and ground penetrating radar for the research of Medieval buried structures in Marche Region
Authors: Bavusi M. , Loperte A. , Lapenna V. , Moscatelli U. , Minguzzi S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A magnetic and Ground Penetrating Radar joint survey was carried out in the framework of the R.I.M.E.M. project that has the aim of supporting the archaeological prospections and drive the selection of the excavation areas related to the Late Roman Period and Early Middle Ages in the Central and Southern Italy. In particular, this papers deals with the magnetic surveys acquired near "Madonna della Valle" and GPR and magnetic joint surveys carried out in "Monastero"site. Most of magnetic maps carried out in "Madonna della Valle" site shown the absence of structured magnetic anomalies, despite of the presence of archaeological signs. Several hypothesis were given to explain this evidence. Joint interpretation performed in "Monastero" site shown more intense magnetic anomalies related with shallower reflections due to probably to buried pipes. Other reflections are related with magnetic anomalies compatible with archaeological targets, but some significant reflections do not correspond to any magnetic anomaly, indicating magnetic method could be "blind" respect the archaeological target. New field surveys including the electrical resistivity tomography could be carried out in order to overcome these acquisition and interpretation difficulties.
Seasonal changes in diurnal rainfall cycle over and around the Indochina Peninsula observed by TRMM-PR
Authors: Takahashi H. G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This study used TRMM-PR data to examine seasonal changes in rainfall characteristics over the Indochina Peninsula, with a focus on the diurnal rainfall cycle. No distinct seasonal changes in the phases of diurnal variations of rainfall were found, even though low-level wind fields changed largely with the seasonal march. Regions with an afternoon maximum received large amounts of rainfall during the pre-monsoon season, whereas regions with a nocturnal or morning rainfall maximum received little rainfall during the pre-monsoon season. This result suggests that the difference in diurnal rainfall variations may be associated with the regional differences in seasonal march of monsoon rainfall over and around the Indochina Peninsula, through the different mechanism between evening and morning rainfalls.
The great Indian haze revisited: aerosol distribution effects on microphysical and optical properties of warm clouds over peninsular India
Authors: Ghanti R. , Ghosh S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Indian subcontinent is undergoing a phase of rapid urbanisation. Inevitable fallout of this process is a concomitant increase in air pollution much of which can be attributed to the infamous great Indian haze phenomena. One observes that the aerosol size distributions vary considerably along the Bay of Bengal (BOB), Arabian Sea (AS) and the Indian Ocean (IO), although, the dynamical attributes are very similar, particularly over the BOB and the AS during this season. Unlike major European studies (e.g. Aerosol Characterization Experiment-2, Ghosh et al., 2005), there are no cloud microphysical modelling studies to complement these observational results for the Indian sub-continent. Ours is the first modelling study over this important region where a time-tested model (O'Dowd et al., 1999a; Ghosh et al., 2007; Rap et al., 2009) is used to obtain cloud microphysical and optical properties from observed aerosol size distributions. Un-activated aerosol particles and very small cloud droplets have to be treated specially to account for non-ideal effects-our model does this effectively yielding realistic estimate of cloud droplet number concentrations (Nc). Empirical relationships linking aerosol concentration to (Nc) yield a disproportionately higher Nc suggesting that such empirical formulations should be used with caution. Our modelling study reveals that the cloud's microphysical and optical properties are very similar along the AS and the BOB despite them having disparate dry aerosol spectral distributions. This is non-intuitive, as one would expect changes in microphysical development with widely different aerosol distributions. There is some increase in cloud droplet numbers with increased haze concentrations but much less than a simple proportion would indicate.
Verification of a short-range ensemble precipitation prediction system over Iberia
Authors: Santos-Muñoz D. , Martin M. L. , Morata A. , Valero F. , Pascual A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The purpose of this paper is the verification of a short-range ensemble prediction system (SREPS) built with five different model physical process parameterization schemes and two different initial conditions from global models, allowing to construct several versions of the non-hydrostatic mesoscale MM5 model for a 1-month period of October 2006. From the SREPS, flow-dependent probabilistic forecasts are provided by means of predictive probability distributions over the Iberian Peninsula down to 10-km grid spacing. In order to carry out the verification, 25 km grid of observational precipitation records over Spain from the Spanish Climatic Network has been used to evaluate the ensemble accuracy together with the mean model performance and forecast variability by means of comparisons between such records and the ensemble forecasts. This verification has been carried out upscaling the 10 km probabilistic forecast to the observational data grid. Temporal evolution of precipitation forecasts for spatial averaged ensemble members and the ensemble mean is shown, illustrating the consistency of the SREPS. Such evolutions summarize the SREPS information, showing each of the members as well as the ensemble mean evolutions. The Talagrand diagram derived from the SREPS results shows underdispersion which indicates some bias behaviour. The Relative Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve shows a very outstanding area, indicating potential usefulness of the forecasting system. The forecast probability and the mean observed frequency present good agreement with the SREPS results close to the no-skill line. Because the probability has a good reliability and a positive contribution to the brier skill score, a positive value of this skill is obtained. Moreover, the probabilistic meteogram of the spatial daily mean precipitation values shows the range of forecast values, providing discrete probability information in different quantile intervals. The epsgram shows different daily distributions, indicating the predictability of each day.
Overview of the Greater Lyon weather radar advances from 90's to 2008
Authors: Renard F. , Comby J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The local weather radar of Lyon, part of the Aramis network of Meteo-France, is currently located 40 km from the urban community. The measurement quality of this tool is subjected to constant improvements from Meteo-France. Indeed, its hydrological measurement quality has steadily evolved from the early 90's until today. This article, therefore, proposes a return on these innovations, assessing measurement quality over the territory of Greater Lyon. This study is based on two successive radar locations, and also on raw reflectivity data and on rain accumulation over the past 15 min (Hydram) or 5 min (Panthere). The measurement performed on the site Satolas was unsatisfactory because of too many ground clutters; and therefore the radar was moved to Saint-Nizier. This new location associated with radar Hydram rain accumulation has reduced the problem of ground clutters. These rain accumulation data have given correct results in comparison with local data of the raingauge network of Greater Lyon, after a global and spatially uniform correction, based on these gauges. The latest generation of radar rain accumulation (Panthere) has, nearly completely, eliminated the problem of ground clutter in the urban area and provides very satisfactory measurements, especially during intense rain events.
AVISO user service, at the crossroads between user information, outreach and education
Authors: Rosmorduc V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Initially set up to distribute Topex/Poseidon ocean altimetry satellite data, AVISO user service has been the link between the Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 projects, users and the general public. The service has continually broadened the scope of its activities, forging close ties with users to achieve efficient dissemination of general, technical, and scientific information. Such a synergy between user services and outreach has many advantages, both for users and for public outreach, including educational ones.
DIVA: an iterative method for building modular integrated models
Authors: Hinkel J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Integrated modelling of global environmental change impacts faces the challenge that knowledge from the domains of Natural and Social Science must be integrated. This is complicated by often incompatible terminology and the fact that the interactions between subsystems are usually not fully understood at the start of the project. While a modular modelling approach is necessary to address these challenges, it is not sufficient. The remaining question is how the modelled system shall be cut down into modules. While no generic answer can be given to this question, communication tools can be provided to support the process of modularisation and integration. Along those lines of thought a method for building modular integrated models was developed within the EU project DINAS-COAST and applied to construct a first model, which assesses the vulnerability of the world’s coasts to climate change and sea-level-rise. The method focuses on the development of a common language and offers domain experts an intuitive interface to code their knowledge in form of modules. However, instead of rigorously defining interfaces between the subsystems at the project’s beginning, an iterative model development process is defined and tools to facilitate communication and collaboration are provided. This flexible approach has the advantage that increased understanding about subsystem interactions, gained during the project’s lifetime, can immediately be reflected in the model.
Spatial modelling of air pollution in urban areas with GIS: a case study on integrated database development
Authors: Matejicek L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A wide range of data collected by monitoring systems and by mathematical and physical modelling can be managed in the frame of spatial models developed in GIS. In addition to data management and standard environmental analysis of air pollution, data from remote sensing (aerial and satellite images) can ehance all data sets. In spite of the fact that simulation of air pollutant distribution is carried out by standalone computer systems, the spatial database in the framework of the GIS is used to support decision-making processes in a more efficient way. Mostly, data are included in the map layers as attributes. Other map layers are carried out by the methods of spatial interpolation, raster algebra, and case oriented analysis. A series of extensions is built into the GIS to adapt its functionality. As examples, the spatial models of a flat urban area and a street canyon with extensive traffic polluted with NOx are constructed. Different scales of the spatial models require variable methods of construction, data management, and spatial data sources. The measurement of NOx and O3 by an automatic monitoring system and data from the differential absorption LIDAR are used for investigation of air pollution. Spatial data contain digital maps of both areas, complemented by digital elevation models. Environmental analyses represent spatial interpolations of air pollution that are displayed in horizontal and vertical planes. Case oriented analyses are mostly focused on risk assessment methods. Finally, the LIDAR monitoring results and the results obtained by modelling and spatial analyses are discussed in the context of environmental management of the urban areas. The spatial models and their extensions are developed in the framework of the ESRI's ArcGIS and ArcView programming tools. Aerial and satellite images preprocessed by the ERDAS Imagine represent areas of Prague.
Conceptualization and implementation of a regional groundwater model for the Neckar catchment in the framework of an integrated regional model
Authors: Jagelke J. , Barthel R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Joint modelling of surface and subsurface systems is necessary to assess the quantity and quality of the water resources in a watershed. Therefore, it is widely applied in integrated regional models. The presented study deals with groundwater modelling within the framework of the integrated regional model MOSDEW, which is being developed for the Neckar catchment in Germany with the objective of contributing to the implementation of the EU Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) (www.rivertwin.org). The groundwater model aims at obtaining a better understanding of the groundwater recharge processes and at evaluating the groundwater resources on watershed scale. In this paper the developed coupling method is described. Furthermore the groundwater model construction based on the available database and first calibration results are presented.
Regional climate model simulations as input for hydrological applications: evaluation of uncertainties
Authors: Kotlarski S. , Block A. , Böhm U. , Jacob D. , Keuler K. , Knoche R. , Rechid D. , Walter A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The ERA15 Reanalysis (1979-1993) has been dynamically downscaled over Central Europe using 4 different regional climate models. The regional simulations were analysed with respect to 2m temperature and total precipitation, the main input parameters for hydrological applications. Model results were validated against three reference data sets (ERA15, CRU, DWD) and uncertainty ranges were derived. For mean annual 2 m temperature over Germany, the simulation bias lies between -1.1°C and +0.9°C depending on the combination of model and reference data set. The bias of mean annual precipitation varies between -31 and +108 mm/year. Differences between RCM results are of the same magnitude as differences between the reference data sets.
Simulating river flow velocity on global scale
Authors: Schulze K. , Hunger M. , Döll P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Flow velocity in rivers has a major impact on residence time of water and thus on high and low water as well as on water quality. For global scale hydrological modeling only very limited information is available for simulating flow velocity. Based on the Manning-Strickler equation, a simple algorithm to model temporally and spatially variable flow velocity was developed with the objective of improving flow routing in the global hydrological model of WaterGAP. An extensive data set of flow velocity measurements in US rivers was used to test and to validate the algorithm before integrating it into WaterGAP. In this test, flow velocity was calculated based on measured discharge and compared to measured velocity. Results show that flow velocity can be modeled satisfactorily at selected river cross sections. It turned out that it is quite sensitive to river roughness, and the results can be optimized by tuning this parameter. After the validation of the approach, the tested flow velocity algorithm has been implemented into the WaterGAP model. A final validation of its effects on the model results is currently performed.
Application of a virtual watershed in academic education
Authors: Horn A. L. , Hörmann G. , Fohrer N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Hydrologic models of watersheds often represent complex systems which are difficult to understand regarding to their structure and dynamics. Virtual watersheds, i.e. watersheds which exist only in the virtual reality of a computer system, are an approach to simplify access to this real-world complexity. In this study we present the virtual watershed KIELSHED-1, a 117 km2 v-shaped valley with grassland on a "Cambisol" soil type. Two weather scenarios are delivered with the watershed: a simplified artificial weather scenario based on long-term data of a German weather station as well as an unmodified data record. The input data and parameters are compiled according to the conventions of the SWAT 2000 hydrological model. KIELSHED-1 is mainly used for education, and illustrative application examples, i.e. calculation of water balance, model calibration, development of land use scenarios, give an insight to the capabilities of the virtual watershed.
Using multi-objective optimisation to integrate alpine regions in groundwater flow models
Authors: Rojanschi V. , Wolf J. , Barthel R. , Braun J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Within the research project GLOWA Danube, a groundwater flow model was developed for the Upper Danube basin. This paper reports on a preliminary study to include the alpine part of the catchment in the model. A conceptual model structure was implemented and tested using multi-objective optimisation analysis. The performance of the model and the identifiability of the parameters were studied. A possible over-parameterisation of the model was also tested using principal component analysis.
Uncertainties in the simulation of groundwater recharge at different scales
Authors: Bogena H. , Kunkel R. , Montzka C. , Wendland F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Digital spatial data always imply some kind of uncertainty. The source of this uncertainty can be found in their compilation as well as the conceptual design that causes a more or less exact abstraction of the real world, depending on the scale under consideration. Within the framework of hydrological modelling, in which numerous data sets from diverse sources of uneven quality are combined, the various uncertainties are accumulated. In this study, the GROWA model is taken as an example to examine the effects of different types of uncertainties on the calculated groundwater recharge. Distributed input errors are determined for the parameters' slope and aspect using a Monte Carlo approach. Landcover classification uncertainties are analysed by using the conditional probabilities of a remote sensing classification procedure. The uncertainties of data ensembles at different scales and study areas are discussed. The present uncertainty analysis showed that the Gaussian error propagation method is a useful technique for analysing the influence of input data on the simulated groundwater recharge. The uncertainties involved in the land use classification procedure and the digital elevation model can be significant in some parts of the study area. However, for the specific model used in this study it was shown that the precipitation uncertainties have the greatest impact on the total groundwater recharge error.
Integration and calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model in the framework of a decision support system for river basin management
Authors: Götzinger J. , Bárdossy A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Water balance models provide significant input to integrated models that are used to simulate river basin processes. However, one of the primary problems involves the coupling and simultaneous calibration of rainfall-runoff and groundwater models. This problem manifests itself through circular arguments - the hydrologic model is modified to calculate highly discretized groundwater recharge rates as input to the groundwater model which provides modeled base flow for the flood-routing module of the rainfall-runoff model. A possibility to overcome this problem using a modified version of the HBV Model is presented in this paper. Regionalisation and optimization methods lead to objective and efficient calibration despite large numbers of parameters. The representation of model parameters by transfer functions of catchment characteristics enables consistent parameter estimation. By establishing such relationships, models are calibrated for the parameters of the transfer functions instead of the model parameters themselves. Simulated annealing, using weighted Nash-Sutcliffe-coefficients of variable temporal aggregation, assists in efficient parameterisations. The simulations are compared to observed discharge and groundwater recharge modeled by the State Institute for Environmental Protection Baden-Württemberg using the model TRAIN-GWN.
Evaluation of hydrological models for scenario analyses: signal-to-noise-ratio between scenario effects and model uncertainty
Authors: Bormann H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Many model applications suffer from the fact that although it is well known that model application implies different sources of uncertainty there is no objective criterion to decide whether a model is suitable for a particular application or not. This paper introduces a comparative index between the uncertainty of a model and the change effects of scenario calculations which enables the modeller to objectively decide about suitability of a model to be applied in scenario analysis studies. The index is called "signal-to-noise-ratio", and it is applied for an exemplary scenario study which was performed within the GLOWA-IMPETUS project in Benin. The conceptual UHP model was applied on the upper Ouémé basin. Although model calibration and validation were successful, uncertainties on model parameters and input data could be identified. Applying the "signal-to-noise-ratio" on regional scale subcatchments of the upper Ouémé comparing water availability indicators for uncertainty studies and scenario analyses the UHP model turned out to be suitable to predict long-term water balances under the present poor data availability and changing environmental conditions in subhumid West Africa.
Modelling of point and non-point source pollution of nitrate with SWAT in the river Dill, Germany
Authors: Pohlert T. , Huisman J. A. , Breuer L. , Frede H.-G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulate point and non-point source pollution of nitrate in a mesoscale mountainous catchment. The results show that the model efficiency for daily discharge is 0.81 for the calibration period (November 1990 to December 1993) and 0.56 for the validation period (April 2000 to January 2003). The model efficiency for monthly nitrate load is 0.66 and 0.77 for the calibration period (April 2000 to March 2002) and validation period (April 2002 to January 2003), respectively. However, the model efficiency for daily loads is low (0.15), which cannot only be attributed to the quality of input data of point source effluents. An analysis of the internal fluxes and cycles of nitrogen pointed out considerable weaknesses in the models conceptualisation of the nitrogen modules which will be improved in future research.