Assessment of the Investment Attractiveness of VTB Bank Shares
Authors: Arkadeva Olga G. , Petrova Mariya A. 
Published: December 2024

The study of VTB Bank's investment attractiveness is undoubtedly relevant due to the fact that deterioration of the geopolitical situation, the bank's inclusion in the sanctions list, as well as tightening of the monetary policy of the Bank of Russia, a pronounced weakening of the national currency had a negative impact on the activities of this commercial bank, the second most important for the Russian banking system, and in 2022 it received a record the loss; in addition, the bank's equity was significantly affected. In 2023, VTB Bank's operations began to recover, and in 2024, the bank carried out a reverse split of its own shares. The growth of investment attractiveness and a high reliability degree of systemically important commercial banks, including VTB Bank, ensure soundness and stability of the banking system, which plays a leading role in ensuring the economic development of the country. The objectives of this study are to assess the investment attractiveness of VTB Bank (PJSC) using the instrumentarium of fundamental and technical analysis and to determine the prospects for its development in terms of potential investments in the bank's shares. Materials and methods. Methods of technical analysis and econometric modeling were used to predict the share price; among special methods of financial and economic analysis, the method of estimating financial coefficients was used. The main data sources were the Investfunds, TradingView, and Smart-lab platforms. Study results. The analysis of candle patterns, construction of moving averages and tracking the relative strength indicator RSI allowed us to assert that in the first half of 2024 there was no entry point into VTB shares. The conditions under which an investor can buy shares of VTB Bank, including after the reverse split, are outlined. It has been established that construction of the ARIMA econometric model makes it possible to accurately predict the future change in VTB Bank share prices by smoothing the time series of stock prices. In the long term, such models will be ineffective, since they do not take into account changes in external factors, as well as individual factors that are characteristic of VTB Bank's activities as an issuer. The fundamental analysis has shown that problems with the bank's equity have a negative impact on the bank's investment attractiveness, since capital adequacy ratios are at a low level and do not give the bank the opportunity to pay dividends. It may take several years to restore VTB Bank's capital position, and during this period, profits will be directed to capitalization increase, rather than paying dividends. The results of the study may have practical significance for potential investors in VTB Bank securities. Conclusions. While maintaining the stability of the bank's financial position, the decisive role in shaping its investment attractiveness will belong to the decisions of the Bank of Russia regarding the key rate and the strategy of the state as the majority shareholder in the management of VTB Bank. The policy of the Bank of Russia in the form of setting a high key rate is aimed at reducing the business activity of economic entities and the inflation rate to target values, which limits the growth of the bank's loan portfolio and net interest income. In 2024, the impact of this factor will have a significant influence on the activities of VTB Bank and may affect the bank's financial results and result in a decrease in net profit, and therefore the degree of its investment attractiveness.