bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
An Industrial Consortium to Sponsor the Development of an Intelligent Mathematical Programming System
Authors: Greenberg Harvey J.
Published: October 2008

About five years ago I formed an industrial consortium to sponsor a highly multidisciplinary research project aimed at creating an artificially intelligent environment for modeling and analysis. The project is couched in basic research, including the fundamental question of what a model is and how people use one. The milestones, however, include both software and reports as products delivered to the consortium members. These are distributed to them much sooner than they are published in the open literature, giving the consortium members a time advantage for the new technology. In addition to specific products, consortium members give advice and participate in setting priorities and deliverables. This gives the consortium members a form of leveraged research, responsive to their needs. I organize semi-annual roundtable discussions that enable all of us to exchange ideas and learn what others are doing, relevant to our primary goals. This gives consortium members a connection into a research community that keeps them at the forefront of modeling and analysis.
Industry-University Cooperation at Penn State's Institute for the Study of Business Markets
Authors: Lilien Gary L.
Published: October 2008

Penn State's Institute for the Study of Business Markets (ISBM), now seven years old and sponsored by 38 firms, has two affiliated research centers and revenue of over $500,000 per year. Its major mission is to do publishable academic research, either basic or applied, in business marketing.
The Indispensable Role of Management Science in Centralizing Freight Operations at Reynolds Metals Company
Authors: Moore E. William , Warmke Janice M. , Gorban Lonny R.
Published: October 2008

In October 1988, the Reynolds Metals Company centralized interstate truckload freight operations. Reynolds' over-200 plants, warehouses, and suppliers no longer dispatch their own shipments to some 200 van and flatbed carriers of their choosing. Instead, they communicate daily shipments to central dispatch at the company's headquarters in Richmond, Virginia. There shipments are assigned to one of 14 premium-quality carriers through a comprehensive automated dispatching system. The Reynolds management sciences department built mixed integer programming and simulation models of central dispatch operations that transportation used to select and deploy carriers. To support daily freight operations, it built on-line dispatching models to help dispatchers route freight by the best service alternative at the lowest cost. Central dispatch has improved on-time delivery of shipments and reduced annual freight costs by over $7 million.
Recent Advances in Crew-Pairing Optimization at American Airlines
Authors: Anbil Ranga , Gelman Eric , Patty Bruce , Tanga Rajan
Published: October 2008

Crew-pairing optimization, the most important and computationally intensive part of crew assignment, contends with union and FAA work rules and pay guarantees to arrive at a low cost solution for assigning crews to fly a monthly schedule. The trip reevaluation and improvement program (TRIP) generates annual savings in excess of $20 million. Considered the preeminent solution mechanism for problems of this type, TRIP has been sold to 10 major airlines and one railroad.
Allocating Telecommunications Resources at L. L. Bean, Inc.
Authors: Quinn Phil , Andrews Bruce , Parsons Henry
Published: October 2008

We developed and implemented a model for optimizing the deployment of telemarketing resources at L.L. Bean, a large telemarketer and mail-order catalog house. The deployment levels obtained with economic optimization were significantly different from those formerly determined by service-level criteria, and the resultant cost savings were estimated as $9 to $10 million per year. To develop the economic-optimization approach, we used queueing theory, devised an expected total-cost objective function, and accounted for retrial behavior and potential caller abandonments through a regression model that related the abandonment rates to customer service levels. Management at L.L. Bean has fully accepted this approach, which now explicitly sets optimal levels for the number of telephone trunks (lines) carrying incoming traffic, the number of agents scheduled, and the maximum number of queue positions allowed for customers waiting for a telephone agent.
Planning the Cutting of Photographic Color Paper Rolls for Kodak (Australasia) Pty. Ltd.
Authors: Farley A. A.
Published: October 2008

At Kodak (Australasia) I addressed the problem of diagramming small customer rolls from large bulk rolls of expensive photographic color paper. Certain characteristics of the problem led to a new innovative approach, for example, the need for the majority of customer rolls to be splice free and a lack of homogeneity in the raw material. I based my system on a two-phase integer programming approach. At phase 1, a suite of integer models are solved using a “look-ahead” strategy to generate a set of alternatives for phase 2 to select from. Since, implementation diagramming waste has improved by over 50 percent, yielding benefits in excess of $2 million in the first year. Other benefits include increased productivity of the cutting machine, less time devoted to diagramming, an increased ability to move to a shorter planning horizon, and the capability to better match supply to demand.
An Introduction to Neural Networks and a Comparison with Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems
Authors: Zahedi Fatemeh
Published: October 2008

Artificial intelligence (including expert systems) (AI/ES) and neural networks (NN) provide methods for formalizing qualitative aspects of business systems. They complement quantitative methods in solving business problems. While AI and NN have the common goal of simulating human intelligence, they use different methods. AI/ES assumes the brain is a black box and imitates the human reasoning process. It processes knowledge sequentially, represents it explicitly, and mostly uses deductive reasoning. Learning takes place outside the system.

NN treats the brain as a white box and imitates its structure and function, using a parallel approach to simulate human intelligence. It represents knowledge implicitly within its structure and applies inductive reasoning to process knowledge. Learning takes place within the system. Both AI/ES and NN have great potential to solve qualitative problems, and their integration could provide a powerful tool for dealing with problems outside the domain of current problem-solving methods.
A Buy-Low, Sell-High Investment Methodology: The Case of Bulk Shipping
Authors: Marcus Henry S. , Glucksman Maurice A. , Ziogas Babis O. , Meyer Karl L.
Published: October 2008

Investment success in a cyclical market, such as the international bulk shipping market, can be dramatically enhanced by a cost-based buy-low, sell-high investment strategy. We developed an estimator of relative price level for a general asset using net present value techniques and publicly available information on costs and revenues. The estimator compares market price with a cost-based nominal price and thus identifies relative highs and lows in a market. As a test, we used the estimator on historical data to simulate how investment decisions could have been made in the bulk shipping market. Investment strategies using the estimator to time acquisitions and sales perform significantly better than a “blind” investment strategy (where ships are acquired and sold at fixed time intervals).
Note: On Puzzle Contests in MS/OR Education
Authors: Juel Henrik
Published: October 2008

It is shown that the “Assign the Values #3” puzzle from Weber “Puzzle contests in MS/OR education,” Interfaces 20(2), 72–75, can be used to demonstrate Lagrangian relaxation.
Long-Term Projections of the AIDS Epidemic
Authors: Sexton Thomas R. , Feinstein Jennifer
Published: October 2008

A mathematical model for predicting the future course of the AIDS epidemic permits the evaluation of a number of possible scenarios for male homosexuals in the US and finds that, while the epidemic can be mitigated, a combination of strategies will probably be needed. Steps to lower the transmissibility of the virus and to encourage more widespread testing and abstinence from risky sex practices are the most promising; merely reducing the rate of acquisition of new sexual partners without decreasing total sexual activity will have only a minor impact. A drug that increases the time from initial infection to the development of AIDS and the time from development of AIDS to death improves the short-term situation at the expense of the long-term if no cure is found. The presence of such a drug in conjunction with the other interventions is, in certain ways, worse than its absence. The model is used to estimate that between 24 and 52 new large urban hospitals will be needed to accommodate male homosexual AIDS patients, perhaps as soon as 1997.
Introduction to the Special Issue on Military Applications
Authors: Womer Norman Keith
Published: October 2008

Editorial overview of the special issue on military applications.
A Decision Support System for Assessing and Controlling the Effectiveness of Multi-Echelon Logistics Actions
Authors: Tripp Robert S. , Cohen I. K. , Pyles Raymond A. , Hillestad Richard J. , Clarke Ronald W. , Limpert Stanley B. , Kassicieh Suleiman K.
Published: October 2008

We designed a decision support system (DSS) to help logistics managers assess wartime readiness and to identify resource and policy changes that could improve it. The DSS, known as the weapon system management information system (WSMIS), detects situations where theater wartime sortie capability might be jeopardized and by what resource shortages or logistics processing bottlenecks. The WSMIS is designed to distinguish between planned and actual logistics support capabilities. Typically logistics resources are acquired and functional processing capabilities are developed far in advance of their actual application. As a result, many intervening factors can invalidate those support plans. WSMIS provides users with the capability to revalidate or revise those plans when needed.
The Effects of Manning and Crew Stability on the Material Condition of Ships
Authors: Beland Russell W. , Quester Aline O.
Published: October 2008

Navy ships suffer serious equipment failures from a wide range of random, and often unidentified, causes. Because of the complexity of the ships and their operations, establishing linkages between equipment failures, the employment of the ships, and the resources available to the ships has been difficult. Our statistical results show a significant relationship between certain manning policies and the material condition of ships, as measured by the frequency and duration of major equipment failures. Statistical estimates that incorporate the idiosyncracies of particular ships and the reporting patterns of individual commanding officers appear to provide more precise estimates of the impact of manning on material condition.
Book Reviews
Authors: Lev Benjamin
Published: October 2008

Kannan, Ravi and Pulleyblank, W. R., eds. 1990, Integer Programming and Combinatorial Optimization, University of Waterloo Press, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, 535 pp., $60.00—reviewed by Sunil Chopra and Eitan Zemel

Nakajima, Seiichi 1989, TPM Development Program, Productivity Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 435 pp., $85.00—reviewed by Binshan Lin

Starfield, Anthony M.; Smith, Karl A.; and Bleloch, Andrew L. 1990, How to Model It—Problem Solving for the Computer Age, McGraw Hill, New York, 206 pp., $20.00—reviewed by Chetan Sankar

Harvey, Andrew C. 1990, Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter, Cambridge University Press, New York, 554 + xvi pp., $69.50—reviewed by Irene M. Hammerbacher

Rapoport, Amnon 1990, Experimental Studies of Interactive Decisions, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 436 pp., $119.00—reviewed by Jeffrey Keisler

Brown, Donald E. and White, Chelsea C., III, eds. 1990, Operations Research and Artificial Intelligence: The Integration of Problem-Solving Strategies, Kluwer Academic, Boston, 505 pp., $89.95—reviewed by Stephen H. Kaisler

Jain, R. K. and Triandis, H. C. 1990, Management of Research and Development, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 268 + xix pp., $44.95—reviewed by R. Balachandra

March, James G. 1989, Decisions and Organizations, Basil Blackwell, New York, 458 pp., $24.95—reviewed by T. K. Das

Dimitriou, Harry T., ed. 1990, Transport Planning for Third World Cities, Routledge, London, UK, 432 pp., $57.50—reviewed by Gary R. Waissi

Ahn, B.-H., ed. 1990, Asian-Pacific Operations Research, APORS '88: New Challenges for OR/MS in the Asian-Pacific Region, Elsevier Science Publishers B.V., Amsterdam, The Netherlands, 736 pp., $153.75—reviewed by Paul Gray
On Inexpert Systems and Natural Intelligence in Military Operations Research
Authors: Woolsey Gene
Published: October 2008

Good military operations research analysis has been, is, will be, and damned well should be independent of whatever the latest hot dog technical hardware or software gadget is. Expert systems and artificial intelligence and their purveyors and lackeys are treated with the amusement they deserve.
Mobilizing Marine Corps Officers
Authors: Bausch Dan O. , Brown Gerald G. , Hundley Danny R. , Rapp Stephen H. , Rosenthal Richard E.
Published: October 2008

The ability to rapidly mobilize the Marine Corps in times of crisis is a cornerstone of United States defense strategy. To mobilize rapidly, the marines need an efficient system for assigning officers to mobilization billets. The system we designed and built is based on a network optimization algorithm that works in conjunction with carefully designed and scrupulously maintained Marine Corps data bases. It takes less than 10 minutes on a 386-based personal computer to complete a mobilization involving 40,000 officers and 27,000 billets and to produce output suitable for generating orders to report via MAILGRAM. Prior to our work, the Marine Corps had a mainframe-based system that took two to four days to complete a mobilization. The new system is not only much faster than the old system, but it also produces significantly better assignments with respect to all measures of effectiveness considered.
An Optimization Model for Modernizing the Army's Helicopter Fleet
Authors: Brown Gerald G. , Clemence Robert D. , Teufert William R. , Wood R. Kevin
Published: October 2008

The helicopter has grown in military stature for more than 40 years: its ascendancy has reformed the US Army. Unfortunately, the current army helicopter fleet consists predominantly of Vietnam-era aircraft approaching the end of their useful lives. We have captured complex procurement and modernization tasks in an optimization-based decision support system, christened PHOENIX, which recognizes yearly operating, maintenance, retirement, service-life extension, and new procurement costs while enforcing constraints on fleet age, technology mix, composition, and budgets over a multi-year planning horizon. The army has applied PHOENIX to helicopters with such success that it has already been adapted to tactical wheeled vehicles and is under consideration for further applications.
Analyzing US Policies for Alternative Automotive Fuels
Authors: Manne Alan S. , Rothkopf Michael H.
Published: October 2008

The US Department of Energy has undertaken an extensive analysis of the options for employing alternative automotive fuels in place of conventional motor gasoline. The analysis depends upon studies of environmental impacts, vehicles and infrastructure, and fuel supplies. The supply analysis is built around a small mathematical programming model that uses region-specific supply and demand curves for crude oil, natural gas, and hydrocarbon end products. The model has identified issues and structured data needs. As the national debate over alternative automotive fuels policy evolves, the model continues to be used by the Department of Energy to evaluate a wide variety of scenarios, and to document analyses.
Organization Life: There Is More to Work than Working
Authors: Schmidt Stuart M.
Published: October 2008

Technical professionals who solely follow a rational model may neglect social relations at work. These relations are important for achieving objectives. Ambitious employees use a variety of tactics for influencing others. A successful career depends on building relationships and using organizational politics in addition to technical competence.
A Dynamic Scheduling and Control System in an ENSIDESA Steel Plant
Authors: Díaz Adenso , Sancho Luis , García Ramón , Larrañeta Juan
Published: October 2008

When we at Empresa Nacional Siderúrgica (ENSIDESA) built our new steel plant in 1988, we emphasized automatic control in the various production sections, giving the process computers continuous and complete information throughout the production process. Making use of this information, we designed an automatic coordinating system for each facility in the plant. We designed this system by dynamically updating previous schedules, taking into account every possible event or delay to create a complete and systematic schedule each heat should follow to avoid scheduling breakdowns.
Artificial Intelligence: Implications for Teaching Decision Science
Authors: Santhanam Radhika , Schniederjans Marc J.
Published: October 2008

Artificial intelligence (AI) can be incorporated into a decision-sciences (DS) curriculum using a variety of AI/DS education materials now available.
First Courses in MS/OR in Executive MBA Programs: A Survey
Authors: Gallagher Charles
Published: October 2008

The first MS/OR course taken by an MBA student is critical in shaping the student's view of the field. While a debate now rages over what course content should be, little is known about current course content. I surveyed executive MBA programs to determine course titles, topics, use of computers, use of case studies, and course objectives. I found that current practice departs considerably from the recommendations of the TIMS education committee.
LP Used for Valuation and Planning of New Zealand Plantation Forests
Authors: Manley Bruce R. , Threadgill John A.
Published: October 2008

With the proposed incorporation of the state plantation forests, negotiations began between the New Zealand Treasury Department (as seller) and the New Zealand Forestry Corporation Limited (as buyer) over the value of the forests. Both based valuation on discounting expected net cash flows. We used a linear programming forest estate modeling system to model the plantation forests and to estimate future cash flows from them. The results were used to develop forest valuation methodology and in negotiations between the two parties. We also used the system to help managers develop management strategies for the 14 corporation districts, modeling forest management, harvesting, and log allocation to processing plants for the next 40 to 70 years. Before the incorporation process was concluded, the government decided to sell the state plantations to the private sector. Subsequently, the system was used to help set reserve prices and provide indicative valuations. Prospective buyers have also used the system to help them value the forests and develop bidding strategies.
Model World: Models at the OK Corral
Authors: Gass Saul I.
Published: October 2008

The paper discusses the use and misuse of MS/OR models as adversarial weapons. Successful modeling of physical processes was overextended to modeling social and political problems, often with biases to prove this or other point.
Misapplications Reviews: Smoke Signals
Authors: Barnett Arnold , Greenberg Irwin
Published: October 2008

The paper discusses the continuing controversy about the magnitudes of particular risks and proper ranking of various hazards that affect our longevity and the longevity of our descendants.
Management Science in Automating Postal Operations: Facility and Equipment Planning in the United States Postal Service
Authors: Cebry Michael E. , DeSilva Anura H. , DiLisio Fred J.
Published: October 2008

In 1988, the postal service released its corporate automation plan (CAP), an ambitious program that includes a cumulative capital investment of $12 billion and labor savings of $4 billion per year by 1995. The backbone of the analysis leading to the CAP was performed with a comprehensive simulation model called META (model for evaluating technology alternatives). META blends a variety of management science and software tools to create a decision support system. It has spawned a family of systems for use at both headquarters and field levels of the USPS, accelerating and enhancing the use of management science throughout the organization.
Scheduling the Operation Desert Storm Airlift: An Advanced Automated Scheduling Support System
Authors: Hilliard Michael R. , Solanki Rajendra S. , Liu Cheng , Busch Ingrid K. , Harrison Glen , Kraemer Ronald D.
Published: October 2008

A typical airlift mission carrying troops and cargo to the Persian Gulf required a three-day round-trip, visited seven or more different airfields, burned almost one million pounds of fuel, and cost $280,000. During Operation Desert Storm, the Military Airlift Command (MAC) averaged more than 100 such missions daily as it managed the largest airlift in history. By August 7, 1991, more than 25,000 missions had moved more than 966,000 passengers and 774,000 tons of cargo to and from the Persian Gulf region. Each mission required scheduling aircraft, crew, and mission support resources to maximize the on-time delivery of cargo and passengers. To meet this challenge, MAC worked with the Oak Ridge National Laboratory to develop and deploy the Airlift Deployment Analysis System (ADANS). Within three months, ADANS provided a set of decision support tools to manage information on cargo and passengers to be moved and the available resources, as well as tools to schedule missions, to analyze the schedule, and to distribute the schedule to MAC's worldwide command and control system.
Book Reviews
Authors: Lev Benjamin
Published: October 2008

Rosenhead, Jonathan, ed. 1989, Rational Analysis for a Problematic World: Problem Structuring Methods for Complexity, Uncertainty, and Conflict, John Wiley and Sons, Chichester, England, 386 pp., $47.95—reviewed by Hugh J. Miser

West, Mike and Harrison, Jeff 1989, Bayesian Forecasting and Dynamic Models, Springer-Verlag, New York, 704 + xxi pp., $56.00—reviewed by Peter Lenk

Suzue, Toshio and Kohdate, Akira 1990, Variety Reduction Program: A Production Strategy for Product Diversification, Productivity Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 164 pp., $59.95—reviewed by B. R. Feiring

Ahmadian, Ahmad; Affifi, Rasoul; and Chandler, William 1990, Readings in Production and Operations Management, Allyn and Bacon, Boston, London, Sydney, Toronto, 388 pp., $15.00—reviewed by Germaine H. Saad

McArthur, Charles W. 1990, Operations Analysis in the US Army Eighth Air Force in World War II, American Mathematical Society, Providence, Rhode Island, xxiv + 349 pp., $81.00 ($49.00 to members)—reviewed by Joseph F. McCloskey, Professor Emeritus

Robson, Ross E., ed. 1990, The Quality and Productivity Equation: American Corporate Strategies for the 1990's, Productivity Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 338 + xx pp., $29.95—reviewed by Darrell Radson

Checkland, Peter and Scholes, Jim 1990, Soft Systems Methodology in Action, John Wiley and Sons, New York, 329 pp., $49.95—reviewed by Susan A. Sherer
Mortgage Valuation Models at Prudential Securities
Authors: Ben-Dov Yosi , Hayre Lakhbir , Pica Vincent
Published: October 2008

During the last four years, Prudential Securities Inc (PSI) has built a premier mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) department. Due to the complexity of the securities, standard fixed-income valuation tools are inadequate for MBSs. The development of sound and accurate models has been an integral part of the growth of the department. These models use a variety of management science techniques, including regression analysis, probabilistic modeling, Monte Carlo simulation, and linear, integer, and nonlinear programming. The models allow the firm to quickly and accurately value, and hence trade, complex MBSs, to properly hedge MBSs in inventory, and to structure clients' portfolios to achieve given objectives while staying within specified constraints. The models are used hundreds of times each day by traders, salespeople, and clients to evaluate MBSs, and they form the basic tools necessary for the firm to participate successfully in the mortgage market.
NETCAP—An Interactive Optimization System for GTE Telephone Network Planning
Authors: Jack Carolyn , Kai Sheng-Roan , Shulman Alexander
Published: October 2008

With operations extending from the east coast to Hawaii, GTE is the largest local telephone company in the United States. Even before its 1991 merger with Contel, GTE maintained more than 2,600 central offices serving over 15,700,000 customer lines. It does extensive planning to ensure that its $300 million annual investment in customer access facilities is well spent. To help GTE Corporation in a very complex task of planning the customer access network, GTE Laboratories developed a decision support tool called NETCAP that is used by nearly 200 GTE network planners, improving productivity by more than 500 percent and saving an estimated $30 million per year in network construction costs.
Managing Consumer Credit Delinquency in the US Economy: A Multi-Billion Dollar Management Science Application
Authors: Makuch William M. , Dodge Jeffrey L. , Ecker Joseph G. , Granfors Donna C. , Hahn Gerald J.
Published: October 2008

GE Capital provides credit card services for a consumer credit business exceeding $12 billion in total outstanding dollars. Its objective is to optimally manage delinquency by improving the allocation of limited collection resources to maximize net collections over multiple billing periods. We developed a probabilistic account flow model and statistically designed programs to provide accurate data on collection resource performance. A linear programming formulation produces optimal resource allocations that have been implemented across the business. The PAYMENT system has permanently changed the way GE Capital manages delinquent consumer credit, reduced annual losses by approximately $37 million, and improved customer goodwill.
Simulating Natural Gas Discoveries
Authors: Power Michael , Jewkes Elizabeth
Published: October 2008

Our modeling framework replicates the commercial assessment of discoveries completed by the oil and gas industry as it explores for and discovers natural gas deposits in frontier basins. We use geologic data to predict expected discovery volumes. We then pass discoveries through an economic filter to determine which are commercially viable. The filter combines taxation, royalty, and pricing assumptions with historical drilling and engineering development cost data to classify discoveries as economic or subeconomic. Designed with the cooperation of the Canada Oil and Gas Lands Administration and the Nova Scotia Department of Mines and Energy, and applied to Canada's Scotian shelf, the model provides a useful exploration and policy-planning tool to industry and government. The model was used to analyze the number of wells required to add a trillion cubic feet of gas to discovery inventories, a question of current concern about the exploration and development potential of Canada's Scotian shelf region.
Computer-Aided Process Planning and Material Requirements Planning: First Steps towards Computer-Integrated Manufacturing
Authors: Ulusoy Gündüz , Uzsoy Reha
Published: October 2008

We developed a computer-aided process planning system for a firm manufacturing domestic appliances and integrated it with the existing MRP system. The system has completely replaced the previous manual system and has led to an increase in computer applications in the firm's engineering departments.
Vehicle Routing by Land, Sea, and Air
Authors: Golden Bruce L. , Wong Richard T.
Published: October 2008

Introduction to special issue concerning vehicle routing has emerged as one of the major success stories in the field of MS/OR. From the academic point of view, books, special issues of journals, sessions, tutorials, workshops, and short courses have focused on new techniques for solving these problems more effectively. Near-optimal solutions can now be obtained for many types of vehicle-routing problems.
Book Reviews
Authors: Lev Benjamin
Published: October 2008

Chikan, Attila, ed. 1990, Inventory Models, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 418 pp., $189.00—reviewed by Ephrem Eyob

Karian, Zaven A. and Dudewicz, Edward J. 1990, Modern Statistical Systems and GPSS Simulation: The First Course, W. H. Freeman and Company, New York, 464 pp., $56.95—reviewed by Franklin E. Grange

Kemper, Robert E. and Yehudai, Joseph 1991, Experiencing Operations Management: A Walk-Through, PWS-Kent Publishing Company, Boston, Massachusetts, 360 pp., $27.00—reviewed by A. D. Amar
An Application of Vehicle-Routing Methodology to Large-Scale Larvicide Control Programs
Authors: Solomon Marius , Chalifour Alain , Desrosiers Jacques , Boisvert Jacques
Published: October 2008

Because black flies transmit disease-producing parasites, many countries try to control them by treating their breeding sites. We designed a strategy to minimize larvicide treatment costs. It involves the minimization of the larvicide used and the number of injection points, achieved by combining a mortality model of larvae, a model for the behavior of the larvicide in water-courses, and a shortest-path model. The strategy also involves the minimization of the flight time for the helicopters used to deploy larvicide, performed by a state-of-the-art heuristic. This method showed potential savings of $100,000 per year on a trial three-day circuit for one helicopter, issued by the onchocerciasis control program (OCP) aerial operations in Western Africa.
Book Reviews
Authors: Lev Benjamin
Published: October 2008

Patridge, Derek and Wilks, Yorick, eds. 1990, The Foundations of Artificial Intelligence: A Sourcebook, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 498 pp., $22.95—reviewed by JaeHwa Choi

Price, Frank 1990, Right Every Time: Using the Deming Approach, Marcel Dekker, Inc., New York, 216 pp., $59.75—reviewed by Bala Ram

Broadwell, Martin M. 1990, The New Supervisor, fourth edition, Addison-Wesley Publishing Company, Reading, Massachusetts, 256 pp., $16.75—reviewed by John Whittaker

Chacko, George K. 1991, Decision-Making under Uncertainty: An Applied Statistics Approach, Praeger Publishers, New York, 272 pp., $47.95—reviewed by John R. Schuyler

Jain, Raj 1991, The Art of Computer Systems Performance Analysis, Techniques for Experimental Design, Measurement, Simulation and Modeling, John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 720 pp. $49.95—reviewed by Per Nikolaj D. Bukh

Brant, Bob 1991, Build Your Own Macintosh and Save a Bundle, Windcrest Books, Blue Ridge Summit, Pennsylvania, 221 pp., $17.95—reviewed by Stephen H. Kaisler

Akao, Yoji, ed. 1990, Quality Function Deployment: Integrating Customer Requirements into Production Design, Productivity Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 400 pp., $75.00—reviewed by Wan S. Shin

McCann, John M. and Gallagher, John P. 1990, Expert Systems for Scanner Data Environments, Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, 224 pp., $55.00—reviewed by Frederick B. Buoni
The Evolution of Corporate Capabilities in Emerging Technologies
Authors: Hamilton William F. , Singh Harbir
Published: October 2008

The evolution of the capabilities of firms in emerging technological fields depends upon the progress of technological development. The strategies firms in these fields employ change as the field evolves. Over time, the strategic resources they commit evolve from broad and exploratory investments oriented towards research to focused, more substantial investments directed towards establishing their competitive positions. Firms' dependence on external alliances also shifts over time, decreasing as the field evolves.
When Speeding Concepts to Market Can Be a Mistake
Authors: Utterback James , Meyer Marc , Tuff Timothy , Richardson Lisa
Published: October 2008

The speed with which to move concepts to market is a fundamental issue facing new ventures and their parent corporate sponsors. Is rapid development from concept to market vital? What pressures are induced by the urgency of product introduction, and can they lead to poor decisions? Can a more deliberate pace be recommended? Widely diverse new business ventures outside a company's core business areas can prove problematic. While faster may be better, speed brings with it pressures that, for certain types of technological ventures, can lead to failure if they are not clearly understood and managed. Speed is relative to the capability of the venturing company and to the nature of the venture it is attempting. The studied company's experience shows that successful ventures, particularly the more risky and potentially rewarding, require commitment and persistence.
The Strategic Path for Achieving Market Leadership within an Innovation-Driven Industry—The HDTV Case Example
Authors: Coffinet Jean-Pierre , Nemec Joseph
Published: October 2008

A winning competitive strategy for an innovation like high definition TV depends on formulating a proper long-term vision of an accessible market goal and of the possible paths leading to it. Two dimensions are of major importance in selecting the optimum path: the importance of barriers to the innovation in terms of new technologies and infrastructure displacement implications and the incremental value of the innovation to users. Phase diagrams enable one to plot competitors' actual and future positions and assess relative risks and returns. A technology strategy that takes these dimensions into account is easier to formulate, and its outcome may be almost predictable.
Investing for the Future: Assessing Shareholder Value of the Regional Bell Operating Companies
Authors: Wilde Dean L. , Tunstall W. Brooke , Smist James P.
Published: October 2008

Regional Bell Operating Companies' earnings in constant dollars have remained essentially flat since divestiture, but stock prices have risen on average more than 125 percent. To meet this investor confidence, the RBOCs must aggressively follow new strategies. Demand for new capital will require aggressive marketing, de-averaged pricing, and innovative financial re-engineering. Operational processes need to be redesigned to meet competition in cost and quality. Regulatory changes are needed to adopt incentive-based reforms, putting ceilings on prices rather than profits. Capital dollars must be targeted on profitable pockets of demand. Finally, the re-engineering of networks and management processes will require new ways of allocating both capital and human resources.
Go with the Flow: Improving Red Cross Bloodmobiles Using Simulation Analysis
Authors: Brennan John E. , Golden Bruce L. , Rappoport Harold K.
Published: October 2008

We developed a computer simulation model to study customer service and productivity issues for Red Cross bloodmobiles. The Red Cross was concerned that excessive waiting lines and the time required to donate blood were affecting donors' willingness to make subsequent blood donations. We developed and tested several strategies for alleviating this problem including modifying set-up, staff allocation, and work rules. Initial implementation experience has resulted in significant decreases in the donor processing time and positive comments from donors citing improved speed and simplicity.
Assigning MBA Students to Field Study Project Teams: A Multicriteria Approach
Authors: Reeves Gary R. , Hickman Edgar P.
Published: October 2008

As the MBA program at the University of South Carolina grew, the task of assigning students to summer field study project teams became more complex. Administrators spent an increasing amount of time struggling with the conflicting objectives of attempting to satisfy student preferences while maintaining some control over the quality and composition of the resulting teams. We developed and implemented a decision support system to automate the process of forming good feasible teams quickly. Using these preliminary assignments as a starting point, administrators can examine preference versus quality trade-offs in arriving at the final assignments with minimal amounts of time and effort.
The Evolution of the Diet Model in Managing Food Systems
Authors: Lancaster Lilly M.
Published: October 2008

The electronic revolution in food-systems management began in the '60s with the formulation of the least-cost-meals mathematical programming model. This model served as the basis for the CAMP (Computer Assisted Menu Planning) software developed for mainframe computers. Over the next two decades, researchers introduced techniques for incorporating food preferences into menu planning. Mini- and micro-computer software emerged. Since the early '60s, managers have used mathematical programming to enhance cost and nutrition control and to increase consumer satisfaction.
Book Reviews
Authors: Lev Benjamin
Published: October 2008

Boynton, Andrew C. and Zmud, Robert W. 1990, Management Information Systems: Readings and Cases, A Managerial Perspective, Scott Foresman, Glenview, Illinois, 511 pp., $16.00—reviewed by Chetan S. Sankar

Trajtenberg, Manuel 1990, Economic Analysis of Product Innovation: The Case of CT Scanners, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 236 pp., $30.00—reviewed by Dennis J. Hanseman
Using Decision Analysis and Risk Analysis to Manage Utility Environmental Risk
Authors: Balson William E. , Welsh Justin L. , Wilson Donald S.
Published: October 2008

Decision analysis and risk analysis techniques are used to analyze and evaluate a wide variety of problems. Recently, the electric utility industry has used these techniques for health, environmental, and economic risks associated with current and past operations. In some instances, the true health and environmental hazards posed by certain chemicals (for example, PCBs and dioxin) may be controversial and widely debated by the scientific and regulatory community. Regardless of the outcomes of such debates, the continued use or presence of these chemicals may pose a very real economic risk to the utility in the form of cleanup costs, fines, liabilities, public relations, or other direct or indirect costs. Decision analysis and risk analysis techniques are used to manage these economic risks. In other contexts, the utility may need an accurate quantitative assessment of health and environmental risks and an evaluation of alternative mitigation strategies. Some of the same techniques are applied to the environmental risk analysis problem.
The Unifying Vision Process: Value beyond Traditional Decision Analysis in Multiple-Decision-Maker Environments
Authors: Kusnic Michael W. , Owen Daniel
Published: October 2008

A new process for the application of decision analysis and other analytical methodologies, called the unifying vision process, can be very valuable in multiple-decision-maker environments. This process is valuable because it removes constraints on the analysis and increases the likelihood that the recommendations will be implemented. Its value is the consequence of establishing a unified vision or “sense of how the world works” among the multiple decision makers. The unified vision is not a compromise but a new, superordinate vision that encompasses the visions initially held by all of the decision makers. The establishment of a unified vision is enabled by the learning that occurs throughout the process.
An Overview of Methods for Applied Decision Analysis
Authors: Kirkwood Craig W.
Published: October 2008

Decision analysis is not just trees anymore. Influence diagrams improve communication among managers and analysts about key dependencies in a decision under uncertainty. Algebraic formulation methods allow compact representation of decision models that are too complex to handle with decision trees. Utility functions model attitude toward risk taking and trade-offs among conflicting objectives in a way that is both practical and conceptually sound. Behavioral research has shown how to correctly elicit judgmental information about uncertainties, and accurate approximations are available to summarize these judgments. Recently developed computer tools use these approaches to model real-world decisions efficiently.
The State of the Art of Decision Analysis: A Personal Perspective
Authors: Brown Rex V.
Published: October 2008

“Personalized” decision analysis (like most quantitative analysis of decisions) has a long way to go before it realizes its potential for being widely used and found useful. Common practice of ten stumbles on “people” rather than on logic problems. Procedures need to be more closely adapted to the intended user and his or her institutional context, based on empirical and behavioral research.
Management and Application of Decision and Risk Analysis in Du Pont
Authors: Krumm F. V. , Rolle C. F.
Published: October 2008

Decision and risk analysis (D&RA) enables Du Pont's business teams to develop creative strategy alternatives, evaluate them rigorously, select those with the greatest expected shareholder value, and design implementation plans the businesses can enthusiastically support. Du Pont organized internal and external resources to develop its D&RA capability and incorporated D&RA in several ongoing business processes. One Du Pont business utilized D&RA techniques to develop a business strategy that enhances value by $175 million.
Value-Focused Thinking about Strategic Decisions at BC Hydro
Authors: Keeney Ralph L. , McDaniels Timothy L.
Published: October 2008

Clarity of the basic values of an organization will become increasingly important as organizations grapple with increasingly complex decisions in the 1990s. To structure and quantify basic values of the British Columbia Hydro and Power Authority, we elicited strategic objectives for the organization from three individuals, then refined and structured them into a hierarchy. We developed attributes and elicited a utility function to illustrate value trade-offs at the strategic level. The results have guided senior planners at BC Hydro in addressing a range of strategic issues. The work indicates that by carefully structuring values, one can provide significant insight for virtually all major decisions facing an organization.
How the Gas Research Institute (GRI) Helped Transform the US Natural Gas Industry
Authors: Burnett William M. , Monetta Dominic J. , Silverman Barry G.
Published: October 2008

In the 1970s, natural gas was thought to be “a fuel with no future.” To change this, the industry formed a research and development (R&D) arm called the Gas Research Institute (GRI). Since 1978, the GRI R&D program has resulted in 132 commercial products, processes, or techniques that have helped turn natural gas into “the fuel of the future.” In doing this, GRI achieved a project success rate of 30 percent—or over twice the US industry-wide average—and a benefit-to-cost ratio of at least seven to one. This success is widely credited to the use of the project appraisal methodology (PAM), a multiattribute, decision analytic scoring function and group advisory process. PAM can be credited with half of the benefits achieved. These benefits are at least $11 billion and as high as $132 billion.
Improving the New York City Arrest-to-Arraignment System
Authors: Larson Richard C. , Cahn Michael F. , Shell Martin C.
Published: October 2008

In 1988, New York City's arrestees were in custody waiting to be arraigned for an average of 40 hours, occasionally for more than 70. Moreover, they were held in crowded, noisy conditions that were emotionally stressful, unhealthy, and often physically dangerous. The city competitively awarded a contract to Queues Enforth Development, Inc. to address the problems of arraignment delays and the staggering associated costs of operating the arrest-to-arraignment system. The project team mounted an extensive two-year effort that included developing comprehensive, easy-to-use system-performance and cost models for the city's four major boroughs and using the models to recommend sweeping operational and policy changes. The recommendations implemented since 1990 have saved the city tens of millions of dollars and have helped to lower average arraignment times to 24 hours or less.
Introduction to the Special Section on Telecommunications
Authors: Sen Suvrajeet
Published: October 2008

Technological innovation and a competitive market place have brought about major changes in telecommunications. The National Academy of Engineering and the National Academy of Sciences have listed information and communications as two of the critical technologies essential for American global competitiveness. It is thus timely for Interfaces to publish a group of articles on telecommunications. The four papers in this section represent different aspects of telecommunication systems.
Expert Systems in Production and Operations Management: Results of a Survey
Authors: Byrd Terry Anthony
Published: October 2008

I surveyed 74 knowledge engineers from private organizations to examine empirically the state of expert systems in these organizations. I asked the knowledge engineers to rate issues related to successful implementation, the extent of use in several areas, the original motivations for implementation, the perceived and quantified benefits of implementation, the interactions with end users, and the knowledge acquisition techniques they used to aid development. I report the results and describe some specific expert systems that the respondents' organizations have developed and are currently using.
Book Reviews
Authors: Lev Benjamin
Published: October 2008

Glover, F.; Klingman, D.; and Phillips, N. V. 1992, Network Models in Optimization and Their Applications in Practice, Wiley-Interscience, New York, 284 pp., $54.95—reviewed by Harvey J. Greenberg

Murty, K. G. Network Programming, Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 1992, 623 pp., $61.33—reviewed by Gary R. Waissi

Hoekstra, Sjoerd and Romme, Jac, eds. 1992, Integral Logistic Sfructures, Developing Customer-Oriented Goods Flow, Industrial Press, New York, 164 pp., $49.95—reviewed by Per Nikolaj D. Bukh

Perigord, Michel 1990, Achieving Total Quality Management: A Program for Action, Productivity Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 379 pp., $45.00—reviewed by Douglas A. Samuelson

Dyer, Robert F. and Forman, Ernest H. 1991, An Analytic Approach to Marketing Decisions, Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey, 368 pages, $39.00—reviewed by Roger Alan Pick
Optimal Expansion of Fiber-Optic Telecommunications Networks in Metropolitan Areas
Authors: Cox Louis Anthony , Kuehner Warren E. , Parrish Scott H. , Qiu Yuping
Published: October 2008

Interoffice fiber-optic networks are already a multi-million dollar business for U S WEST Communications, with rapid expansion anticipated for the rest of the decade. U S WEST's operations research modeling group developed a mixed-integer programming model to help plan the least-cost expansion of interoffice fiber-optic networks in major metropolitan areas throughout the 14 midwestern states in U S WEST's territory. The model augments previous telecommunications planning tools by developing explicit optimal expansion plans for multi-year planning horizons. It was tested successfully in 1991 on network and demographic data from Colorado Springs, Colorado. An outgrowth of the model is now being used to design and plan the growth of fiber-optical ring networks in Seattle, Denver, Minneapolis, and other major metropolitan areas throughout U S WEST's region.