The impacts of ENSO and PNA teleconnections on upper-level coupling to the Great Plains low-level jet
Authors: Burrows D. Alex , Ferguson Craig , Agrawal Shubhi , Bosart Lance 
Published: March 2020

&lt;p&gt;The United States (U.S.) Great Plains southerly low-level jet (GPLLJ) is a ubiquitous feature of the summertime climatological flow in the central U.S. contributing to a large percentage of mean and extreme summertime rainfall, the generation of vast quantities of U.S. renewable wind energy, and severe weather outbreaks.&amp;#160; Like other LLJs across the globe, the GPLLJ can be 1) vertically coupled to the large-scale cyclone-anticyclone flow pattern associated with an upper-level jet stream or 2) uncoupled to the large-scale flow but sustained in response to various local land-atmosphere coupling mechanisms.&amp;#160; Many studies have focused on the interactions between teleconnection patterns and associated GPLLJ variability, treating the GPLLJ as a singular phenomenon.&amp;#160; Here, we treat the GPLLJ as two phenomena, coupled and uncoupled to the upper-level flow, and explore the multiscale impacts of SST forced and internally generated modes of variability on the GPLLJ.&amp;#160; With mounting evidence for the low-frequency control on higher frequency GPLLJ variability, the current study analyzes the contribution of the Pacific/North America (PNA) pattern on sub-seasonal timescales and ENSO on interannual timescales to changes in the frequency distributions of both coupled and uncoupled GPLLJs.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;This analysis utilizes 1) the Coupled ERA 20th Century (CERA-20C; 1901-2010) reanalysis from ECMWF which provides a large sample of teleconnection conditions and their impacts on GPLLJ variability and 2) a recently developed automated technique to differentiate those GPLLJs that are coupled or uncoupled to the upper-level flow.&amp;#160; Many studies have already shown that two distinct synoptic regimes dominate GPLLJ variability, a western U.S. trough and a central U.S. ridge.&amp;#160; This leads to changes in the frequency ratio of coupled and uncoupled GPLLJ events and ultimately in the location and intensity of precipitation across the GP.&amp;#160; Recently, Burrows et al. (2019) showed that during the Dust Bowl period of 1932-1938, the central and northern GP experienced anomalously high (low) uncoupled (coupled) GPLLJ event frequencies that coincided with a multi-year dry period across the entire region.&amp;#160; Understanding the upscale and lower frequency forcing patterns that lead to these distinct synoptic regimes would lead to greater predictability and forecasting skill.&amp;#160; On sub-seasonal timescales, it is shown that the negative phase of the PNA, which is associated with a southerly displaced Pacific jet stream and a western U.S. trough, leads to increases in the frequency of GPLLJs that are coupled to the upper-level flow, increases in Gulf of Mexico moisture flux and a redistribution of GP precipitation.&amp;#160; On interannual timescales, the location of ENSO events, i.e., eastern or central Pacific, is explored to determine the relationship between tropical forced variability and upper-level coupling to the GPLLJ.&amp;#160; In line with recent studies, it is hypothesized that central Pacific ENSO events may lead to increases in coupled GPLLJ events and precipitation, particularly in the southern GP.&lt;/p&gt;