ANALYSIS OF TRENDS IN THE RELEVANT MARKET ON THE APPLIED MARKET OF EGGS AND EGG PRODUCTS ON THE BASIS OF SIMULATION MODELING
Authors: KRAMSKYI S.O. , TARAKANOV M.L. 
Published: May 2023

Topicality. In the conditions of martial law and the future post-war reconstruction, it is advisable to consider the national economy in the form of a three-level system of markets, in particular the niche market of eggs, namely: the national market - at the highest level, regional markets - at the meso level; networks of local markets are at the lower level of this hierarchy. Despite the fact that local markets are at a lower level, they play far from the smallest role in the functioning of the national economic system at the present time, since they actually act as the platform of the entire pyramid of the war and post-war state. An urgent issue is determining the priorities of the institutional support for the operation of the market of eggs and egg products. In particular, this applies to licensing and quotas for export supplies. Implementation of the above-mentioned measures will contribute to the identification of dangerous sources that arise in the reproduction process. At the same time, the basis for improving the natural environment is created. Priorities should be the production of ecologically clean products and their processing, disposal of production waste, combining related technological processes, etc. This will make it possible to implement promising projects, increase the efficiency of logistics routes for product deliveries, and strengthen cooperative ties between chain links. Strategic priorities of the economic development of the niche egg market for the food security of the population of Ukraine in the conditions of economic recovery in the food market.Аim and tasks. The purpose of the study is to substantiate and deepen the theoretical and methodological foundations and develop practical recommendations for the formation of the market system of eggs and egg products in wartime on the basis of simulation modeling.To achieve the goal, the following tasks are to be solved: 1. To analyze trends in the development of production and circulation of eggs and egg products in Ukraine; 2. Describe the state of the egg and egg products market in Ukraine; 3. Determine the strategic priorities of market development in the post-war period on the basis of simulation modeling.Materials and Methods. So, thanks to the method of simulation modeling and simulation runs, it is possible to predict the state and functioning of the object in real conditions, thereby preventing negative consequences, risks in conditions of insufficient information that may arise in the process of the organization of post-war projects, in particular its infrastructure, on the example of the egg market and egg products.Research results. The sale of edible eggs from the manufacturer's enterprise takes place through various sales channels, in particular, intermediary structures, dealer networks, supermarkets at wholesale prices, which are significantly lower than the current market prices and do not affect the level of profitability of the manufacturer. Therefore, additional opportunities for business and the reproductive structure of the relevant egg market appear in this area. The war additionally intensified problematic issues related to a large-scale reduction in consumer demand for products, disruption of logistics schemes for product supplies, etc. In these circumstances, the question of determining strategic priorities for the development of the market of eggs and egg products in the conditions of post-war economic recovery is relevant. Analyze trends in the development of production and circulation of eggs and egg products in Ukraine; To determine the factors and strategic priorities of market development in the post-war period on the basis of simulation modeling. The current state of functioning of the market of eggs and egg products in the markets of agricultural products is a consequence of the transformations that have taken place in the composition of the agricultural markets of Ukraine during the last ten years. The commodity market under investigation has three dimensions: geographical, commodity and time, in relation to which it is expedient to determine the trends of its development. The main priorities include: restoring the leading positions of producers of eggs and egg products in foreign markets; support of domestic producers in order to resist excessive imports; restoration of completed commodity chains with high added value; formation of an equal competitive environment between large, medium and small market participants; formation of interregional ties under the conditions of new forms of cooperation, in particular cluster organization of participants; stimulating the development of organic production of eggs and egg products; at the regional level, develop and implement programs for the restoration and stabilization of the functioning of regional markets for eggs and egg products.Conclusions. 1. For a long time, Ukraine has been positioned as a guarantor of food security in many countries of the world thanks to traditionally strong food exports, including eggs and egg products. Ukraine's contribution to the world food market in 2021 was equivalent to providing food for about 400 million people. 2. The market of eggs and egg products is one of the leading agro-food markets in the country, which plays an important role in ensuring the country's food security. Market features include: a) stability of geographic and commodity market boundaries, which are oriented toward the mass consumer with a low level of substitutability of products; b) predominantly oligopoly type of market, the leading share of which is distributed among several large vertically integrated companies c) presence of strong export potential (8th place in the world among exporters of this product); d) a stable positive foreign trade balance due to sales of products to Asian countries, including China, Japan and Korea, as well as to certain EU countries, in particular, Germany. That is, the market is the most developed among the country's agro-food markets and has significant potential for further development. 3. The study proved that the market of eggs and egg products had positive development trends over the past 10 years, with the exception of the period 2015-2016 due to the occupation of Crimea and part of Donbas. The volume of egg production in 2021 amounted to 853.3 million pieces, which is 20 times higher than the volume of production in 2010. This indicates the presence of a number of factors that contributed to such a positive trend: accelerated capital turnover, significant volumes of involved investments in technical re-equipment and expansion of production facilities, modern management, etc. 4. At the same time, the market has a number of problems that restrain its development. The main ones include: a) the problem of reducing the cost of production (the share of energy carriers, primarily natural gas, in the structure of the cost of production at the beginning of 2022 reached 25-30%, which significantly reduced the competitiveness of products on international markets in terms of the price factor ; b) the problem of smoothing the seasonality of price fluctuations of eggs and egg products; c) the problem of stability of product supplies to foreign markets and a number of other problems.