Long-Term Wind Influence on Sea Level Along the Dutch Coast&#160;
Authors: Keizer Iris , Le Bars Dewi , Jüling André , Drijfhout Sybren , van de Wal Roderik 
Published: March 2022

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&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;We studied t&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;he wind influence on &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;multidecadal variability and&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; trend &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;of sea level &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;along the Dutch coast. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;Annual mean sea level for the period 1890 to 2020 is obtained from 6 tide gauges. We compared three widely used &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;multi&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;linear regression&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; models relating sea level and wind based on either local zonal and meridional wind speed or large-scale pressure patterns. For this purpose, surface wind and pressure data from the &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;ERA5 reanalysis and the twentieth century reanalysis v3 (20CRv3) are used&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;.&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;We find a significant multi-decadal mode of variability with an amplitude of around 1 cm and a period of 40 to 60 years that is related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. We show that this multi-decadal wind variability is responsible for an average drop in sea level of 0.5 mm/yr over the last 40 years which is around a quarter of the total sea level rise of 2 mm/yr over that period. Therefore, wind effects on sea level partly masked sea level acceleration at the Dutch coast. This is important for sea level monitoring supporting decision making.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;The same &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;multi&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;-&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;linear regression&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; models are then applied to the CMIP6 historical and future climate scenario data to make projections of future wind impact on sea level along the Dutch coast. Contrary to our expectation based on a previous study in the German Bight (Dangendorf et al. 2014) we find no sign that long term wind changes will increase sea level during the 21&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;st&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt; century.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;Reference:&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;&lt;span&gt;Dangendorf, S&amp;#246;nke, Thomas Wahl, Enno Nilson, Birgit Klein, and J&amp;#252;rgen Jensen. &amp;#8220;A New Atmospheric Proxy for Sea Level Variability in the Southeastern North Sea: Observations and Future Ensemble Projections.&amp;#8221; &lt;/span&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;span&gt;Climate Dynamics&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;span&gt; 43, no. 1&amp;#8211;2 (July 2014): 447&amp;#8211;67. &lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1932-4&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;.&lt;/span&gt;&lt;span&gt;&amp;#160;&lt;/span&gt;&lt;/p&gt;
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