bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Schleiermacher and the Construction of a Contemporary Roman Catholic Foundational Theology
Authors: Fiorenza Francis Schüssler
Published: June 2011

When I was completing my book on foundational theology, I presented a paper on the concept of broad reflective equilibrium and foundational theology to a group of colleagues at a conference sponsored by the Association of Theological Schools. This paper summarized the book's concluding section, which dealt with the relationship between contemporary criticisms of foundationalism and a foundational theology employing the method of broad reflective equilibrium. It advanced a systematic and historical argument. Systematically, the section argued that the method of broad reflective equilibrium offered a vision of foundational theology that avoided the pitfalls of foundationalism, overcoming the foundationalism of fundamental theology. It appealed to current discussions about methodology, specifically, the discussions on reflective equilibrium in the philosophy of science and in political ethics. The historical argument appealed to Schleiermacher by relating Schleiermacher's stance on the relationship between systematic and philosophical theology to the conception of a nonfoundationalist foundational theology, employing the method of broad reflective equilibrium.
Some Aspects of St. Augustine's Literary Aesthetics, Studied Chiefly In De Doctrina Christiana
Authors: Young Archibald M.
Published: June 2011

When Augustine was a young man, he tells us in his Confessions, he asked himself and his friends,

“Do we love anything but the beautiful? What then is the beautiful? and what is beauty? What is it that attracts and wins us to the things we love? for unless there were in them a grace and beauty, they could by no means draw us unto them.” And I marked and perceived that in bodies themselves, there was a beauty, from their forming a sort of whole, and again, another from apt and mutual correspondence, as of a part of the body with its whole, or a shoe with a foot, and the like. And this consideration sprang up in my mind, out of my inmost heart, and I wrote On the Fair and the Fit, I think two or three books. Thou knowest, O Lord, for it is gone from me, for I have them not, but they are strayed from me, I know not how.
MOTIVATIONS FOR ENTRY INTO SEX WORK AND HIV RISK AMONG MOBILE FEMALE SEX WORKERS IN INDIA
Authors: SAGGURTI NIRANJAN , VERMA RAVI K. , HALLI SHIVA S. , SWAIN SUVAKANTA N. , SINGH RAJENDRA , MODUGU HANIMI REDDY , RAMARAO SAUMYA , MAHAPATRA BIDHUBHUSAN , JAIN ANRUDH K.
Published: June 2011

This paper assesses the reasons for entry into sex work and its association with HIV risk behaviours among mobile female sex workers (FSWs) in India. Data were collected from a cross-sectional survey conducted in 22 districts across four high HIV prevalence states in India during 2007–2008. Analyses were limited to 5498 eligible mobile FSWs. The reasons given by FSWs for entering sex work and associations with socio-demographic characteristics were assessed. Reported reasons for entering sex work include poor or deprived economic conditions; negative social circumstances in life; own choice; force by an external person; and family tradition. The results from multivariate analyses indicate that those FSWs who entered sex work due to poor economic conditions or negative social circumstances in life or force demonstrated elevated levels of current inconsistent condom use as well as in the past in comparison with those FSWs who reported entering sex work by choice or family tradition. This finding indicates the need for a careful assessment of the pre-entry contexts among HIV prevention interventions since these factors may continue to hinder the effectiveness of efforts to reduce the spread of HIV/AIDS in India and elsewhere.
Influence of tinnitus sound therapy signals on the intelligibility of speech
Authors: Paglialonga A , Fiocchi S , Parazzini M , Ravazzani P , Tognola G
Published: June 2011

Objective:

To assess the influence on speech intelligibility of various signals used in tinnitus sound therapy.

Materials and methods:

We measured, in normal hearing subjects, the intelligibility of speech in the presence of three different sound therapy signals: wide-band noise, a recording of moving water, and a combination of tones.

Results:

For a given level of stimulation, speech intelligibility was worst in the presence of wide-band noise, compared with the other sound therapy signals. When the stimulation level of the three different signals was increased, speech intelligibility deteriorated more rapidly with wide-band noise, compared with the other two signals. The combination of tones had the least influence on speech intelligibility.

Conclusion:

The use of different tinnitus sound therapy signals can lead to significantly different effects on the intelligibility of speech. The use of natural sound recordings or combinations of tones may provide the patient with more flexibility to change the stimulation level during treatment.
A Reassessment of Mackenzie's Second and Third Cities at Phylakopi
Authors: Brodie Neil
Published: June 2011

Duncan Mackenzie's interpretation of the Phylakopi stratigraphy, which he presented in 1904 as the final chapter of the excavation report, continues to structure discussion of the site's history. Mackenzie proposed a sequence of three ‘Cities’, which are seen to correspond to EC III, MC, and LC periods of occupation respectively. This paper examines Mackenzie's interpretation in light of his own notes taken during excavation, and the results of subsequent excavations undertaken by Dawkins and Droop in 1911 and Renfrew from 1974 to 1977. It concludes that while the urban sequence at Phylakopi is probably more complex than Mackenzie appreciated, his suggestion of a three City succession is broadly correct, but that the Second City should be redated to MC–LC II, and the Third City to LC III.

Η ερμηνεία του Duncan Mackenzie για την στρωματογραφία της Φυλακωπής, που παρουσίασε το 1904 στο τελευταίο κεφάλαιο της σχετικής ανασκαφικής έκθεσης, εξακολουθεί να προκαλεί συζήτηση για θην ιστορία της τέσης. O Mackenzie πρότεινε τη διαδοχή τριών ‘Πόλεων’, οι οποίες φαίνεται ότι αντιστοιχούν στις IIK III, MK και YK περιόδους κατοίκησης. Το εν λόγω άρθρο εξετάζει την ερμηνεία του Mackenzie σύμφωνα με τις προσωπικές του σημειώσεις κατά την ανασκαφή και τα αποτελέσματα μεταγενέστερων ανασκαφικών ερευνών, που διεξήχτησαν το 1911 από τους Dawkins και Droop και την περίοδο 1974–1977 από τον Renfrew. Συμπεραίνεται ότι ενώ η διαδοχή των οικιστικών φάσεων στη Φυλακωπή είναι πιθανώς περισσότερο περίπλοκη από την αρχική εκτίμηση του Mackenzie, η πρότασή του για την ύπαρξη τριών διαδοχικών Πόλεων είναι γενικά σωστή. Ωστόσο, η Δεύτερη Πόλη θα πρέπει να επαναχρονολογηθεί στη MK–YK II και η Τρίτη στην YK III.
Inscriptions from Crete
Authors: Cadogan Gerald , Chaniotis Angelos
Published: June 2011

This article presents some unpublished inscriptions from excavations of the British School on Crete: a law or decree of the Classical period from Knossos, which possibly refers to pastoral activities; a Hellenistic boundary stone of a sanctuary of Hermes and Aphrodite from Myrtos-Pyrgos; and four graffiti on clay cups of late Hellenistic date, also from Myrtos-Pyrgos. These items are presently in the Stratigraphical Museum at Knossos.

Σε αυτό το άρθρο παρουσιάςινται ασημοσίευτες επιγραφές από ανασκαφές της Bρετανικής Σχολής στην Kρήτη: ένας νόμος ή ψήφισμα της κλασικής περιόσου από την Kνωσό που ίσως σχετίςεται με ποιμενικές σραστη-ριότητες ένας ελληνιςτικός οροθέτης ιερού του Eρμή και της Aφροσίτης από τον Μύρτο-Πύργο και τέσσερα χαράγματα σε πήλινα αγγεία της ύστερης ελληνιστικής περιόσου, επίσης από τον Μύρτο-Πύργο. ´Oλες αυτές οι επιγραφές φυλάσσονται σήμερα στο Στρωματογραφικό Μουσείο στην Kνωσό.
Ritual Spaces and Performances in the Asklepieia of Roman Greece
Authors: Melfi Milena
Published: June 2011

This paper attempts to investigate the existence of performative rituals—such as processions, songs, dances, dramatic enactments of divine myths and genealogies—in sanctuaries of Asklepios during the Roman Imperial period in Greece. Because of their long life and their well-documented ritual practice, the sanctuaries of Athens, Epidauros, and Messene have been selected as case studies. Archaeological, literary, and epigraphical sources are used to identify the nature of the ritual performed, and to assign to them a topographical space within the sacred precinct. The period under consideration mostly coincides with the reign of the Antonine emperors, when the relatively peaceful environment allowed for an artistic revival, and cultural phenomena such as the Second Sophistic promoted the reappropriation of ancient Greek tradition and a renewed continuity with it, despite the historical discontinuity. Wealthy patrons belonging to the educated elite and holding the highest offices within the imperial bureaucracy were often responsible for the refoundation of sacred buildings, and of long-forgotten religious festivals. In this context, the promotion of performative spaces and rituals in the sanctuaries of Asklepios is interpreted as a product of the cultural and social environment of the second and early third centuries in Greece.

To άρθρο αυτό επιχειρεί να ερευνήσει την ύπαρξη επιτελεστικών τελετών -όπως πομπές, ύμνοι, χοροί, σραματικές αναπαραστάσεις θεïκών μύθων και γενεαλογιών- στα ιερά του Aσκληπιού κατά τη σιάρκεια της ρωμαïκής αυτοκρατορικής περιόσου στην Eλλάσα. Tα ιερά της Aθήνας, της Eπισαύρου και της Μεσσήνης επιλέχθηκαν ως περιπτώσεις έρευνας εξαιτίας της μακράς χρήσης τους και των καλά τεκμηριομένων τελετουργικών πρακτικών τους. Γίνεται χρήση αρχαιολογικών καταλοίπων και φιλολογικών και επιγραφικών πηγών προκειμένου να αναγνωριστεί η φύση των τελετών που πραγματοποιούνταν στα ιερά αυτά καθώς και να προσδιοριστεί τοπογραφικά η θέση των τελετών αυτών στο χώρο του τεμένους. H εν λόγω περίοδος συμπίπτει σε μεγάλο βαθμό με τη βασιλεία των Aντωνίνων κατά τη διάρκεια της οποίας το σχετικά ειρηνικό περιβάλλον επέτρεψε μία καλλιτεχνική αναγέννηση. Πολιτιστικά φαινόμενα όΠως η Δεύτερη Σοφιστική προώθησαν την επανοικειοποιήση της αρχαίας Eλληνικήσ παράδοσης και την ανανεωμένη ςυνέχειά της, παρά την ιστορική ασυνέχειά της. Eύποροι πάτρονες, μέλη της πεπαιδευμένης αριστοκρατίας και κάτοχοι των υψηλότερων αξιωμάτων της αυτοκρατορικής γραφειοκρατίας, ήταν συχνά υπεύθυνοι για την επανίδρυση ιερών κτιρίων, και θρησκευτικών εορτών ξεχασμένων για πολύ καιρό. Μέσα σε αυτό το πλαίσιο, η προώθηση επιτελεστικών χώρων και τελετουργιών στα ιερά του Aσκληπιού ερμηνεύεται ως απόρροια του πολιτιστικού και κοινωνικού περιβάλλοντοσ του δεύτερου και πρώιμου τρίτου αιώνα στην Eλλάδα.
Roman Knossos: Discovering the City through the Evidence of Rescue Excavations
Authors: Sweetman Rebecca J.
Published: June 2011

Thus far, much of the analysis of Roman and Late Antique Knossos has been based on the material culture produced through research excavations such as the Villa Dionysus and the Unexplored Mansion. Such excavations provide a tantalizing view of select aspects of the community and city and are essential for an understanding of the chronology of much of the material culture. However, these excavations cannot provide a complete picture of the character and diachronic range of the entire city. To do so, it is necessary to turn to the hitherto unpublished rescue excavations undertaken in dispersed locations of the valley. These range from the many graves located on the slopes of the surrounding hills, to monumental architectural remains in the area to the east of the Villa Dionysus, and to mundane features such as cisterns and roads in the modern village. In this paper, within the context of the published Roman material and with a focus on mosaics and ceramics, the evidence of the rescue material is used to develop a better perception of the city and all its residents, including the layout in terms of administrative, residential, and industrial areas from the first to the seventh centuryad.

Μέχρι σήμερα ένα μεγάλο μέρος της εξέτασης της Κνωσού κατά τη ρωμαϊκή περίοδο και την ύστερη αρχαιότητα έχει βασιστεί στα υλικά κατάλοιπα από συστηματικές ανασκαφές, όπως στην Έπαυλη του Διονύσου και την Ανευξερεύνητη Οικία. Αυτές οι ανασκαφές παρουσιάςουν μία δελεαστική όψη επιλεκτικών εκφάνσεων της κοινότητας και της πόλης. Επιπλέον είναι σημαντικές για την κατανόηση της χρονολόγησης ενός μεγάλου μέρους των υλικών καταλοίπων. Ωστόσο, δεν μπορούν να παρουσιάσουν μία συνολική εικόνα του χαρακτήρα και της διαχρονικής αλληλουχίας όλης της πόλης. Για να γίνει κάτι τέτοιο είναι απαραίτητο να στρέψουμε την προσοχή μας στο μέχρι σήμερα αδημοσίευτο υλικό των σωστικών ανασκαφών που έχουν πραγματοποιηθεί σε διάφορες θέσεις στην πεδιάδα. Αυτές οι ανασκαφές ποικίλλουν: από τους πολλούς τάφους στις πλαγιές των γειτονικών λόφων, στα μνημειακά αρχιτεκτονικά κατάλοιπα στην περιοχή ανατολικά της Έπαυλης του Διονύσου και τα κοινότοπα στοιχεία, όπως δεξαμενές και δρόμοι στο σύγχρονο χωριό. Στο άρθρο αυτό, μέσα στο πλαίσιο του δημοσνευμένου ρωμαϊκού υλικού και με έμφαση στα ψηφιδωτά και την κεραμεική, τα δεδομένα από το υλικό των σωστικών ανασκαφών χρησιμοποιούνται για την καλύτερη κατανόηση της πόλης και όλων των κατοίκων της συμπεριλαμβανομένης της διάρθρωσής της ως προς τις περιοχές διοίκησης, κατοίκησης και βιοτεχνικής παραγωγής από τον πρώτο μέχρι τον έβδομο αιώνα μετά Χριστόν.
Dimension of the generalized 4-corner set and its projections
Authors: BÁRÁNY BALÁZS
Published: June 2011

In the last two decades, considerable attention has been paid to the dimension theory of self-affine sets. In the case of generalized 4-corner sets (see Figure 1), the iterated function systems obtained as the projections of self-affine systems have maps of common fixed points. In this paper, we extend our result [B. Bárány. On the Hausdorff dimension of a family of self-similar sets with complicated overlaps. Fund. Math. 206 (2009), 49–59], which introduced a new method of computation of the box and Hausdorff dimensions of self-similar families where some of the maps have common fixed points. The extended version of our method presented in this paper makes it possible to determine the box dimension of the generalized 4-corner set for Lebesgue-typical contracting parameters.
Finite group actions on homologically peripheral 3-manifolds
Authors: IKEDA TORU
Published: June 2011

We generalize the notion of totally peripheral 3-manifolds to define homologically peripheral 3-manifolds. The homologically peripheral property survives canonical decompositions of 3-manifolds as well as it defines a sufficiently large class of 3-manifolds containing link exteriors. The aim of this paper is to study finite group actions on a homologically peripheral 3-manifold, which agree on the boundary, up to equivalence relative to the boundary. As an application, we generalize Sakuma's theorems on the uniqueness of symmetries of knots to the case of symmetries of links.
Multiattribute interaction design: An integrated conceptual design process for modeling interactions and maximizing value
Authors: Ehrich Andrew Baratz , Haymaker John Riker
Published: June 2011

Integrated design synthesizes combinations of options into alternatives that take advantage of interactions to maximize multidisciplinary value. As resources become further constrained, options become more numerous, and goals become increasingly complex, it is more critical and more challenging for design teams to find these integrated solutions. Theory proposes the integration of transformation, flow, and value views as necessary to support such integrated design. This paper develops requirements for these views that encourage flexible yet systematic integrated conceptual design processes. It then illustrates how these requirements are only partially satisfied by current design management systems, provides motivating case studies, and introduces a new framework, multiattribute interaction design (MAID), to fill this void by systematically guiding design teams to explicitly consider the potential interactions of options and the resulting value of design solutions. The paper defines the terms relevant to design space exploration and interactions. It then defines the MAID method and specifies metrics and a process for its validation. Initial laboratory charettes carry out first validations, illustrating evidence for how MAID can help integrate transformation, flow, and value views and lead teams of students to discover and record more interactions in a relatively short amount of time. The paper then lists future work required to further develop and validate MAID.
Future Financial Regulation: An Actuary's View
Authors: Fishman A.S. , Daldorph J.J. , Gupta A.K. , Hewitson T.W. , Kipling M.R. , Linnell D.R. , Nuttall S.R.
Published: June 2011

This discussion paper was produced by a Working Party in April 1997 to put forward some possible ways of improving the United Kingdom financial regulatory process. It was written to contribute to the expected post General Election debate on this topic. Although the new Government announced plans in May 1997 for a new Securities and Investment Board (SIB) with statutory powers, this has not reduced the value of this discussion paper which raises some wider issues on methods of regulation.

The paper excludes the supervision and regulation of banks, building societies, insurance companies and exchanges and concentrates on areas that directly affect the public on an ongoing basis. It looks at the expectations of the main parties involved in regulation, the theory and practice of regulation, opportunities and concerns, and concludes with a summary of key issues for discussion. The thrust of the paper is that self regulation should be replaced by statutory regulation and that the present ‘prescriptive’ regulatory process should be replaced by one based on ‘outcomes’ supported by guidance.
Human Genetics and Financial Services. A Discussion Meeting with Supporting Papers
Authors: Wilkie A.D. , Le Grys D.J. , Macdonald A.S. , Ross T.M. , Daykin C.D.
Published: June 2011

The text of these papers, together with the abstract of the discussion held by the Institute of Actuaries on 19 May 1997, are printed in British Actuarial Journal, 3, V, 969-1058.
Report of the Fixed-Interest Working Group
Authors: Feldman K.S. , Bergman B. , Cairns A.J.G. , Chaplin G.B. , Gwilt G.D. , Lockyer P.R. , Turley F.B.
Published: June 2011

Actuarial models of the market in conventional British Government Stocks, also known as the Gilt-Edged market, are reviewed and contrasted with the methods which have been developed, during the last twenty years, by financial economists.

Following the Treasury's announcement in May 1995 (regarding the taxation of institutional bond holdings), the so-called ‘coupon effect’ has largely disappeared and gilt prices can now be fitted very closely by using the same simple discounting functions for both income and capital flows. A new model suitable for the calculation of yield indices is proposed and is contrasted with the model currently underlying the FTSE Actuaries Government Securities (FTSEAGS) Yield Indices. A number of new possible applications of the reformulated yield indices, such as forward pricing, asset/liability matching and stochastic simulation, are discussed. An analogous model for index-linked gilts leads to applications involving the forward market in the retail prices index.

A survey of professional users of the FTSEAGS Indices is described, and a revised presentation for the published yield indices is suggested. A summary of current statutory references to the indices is presented.
Descriptive Bond-Yield and Forward-Rate Models for the British Government Securities' Market: [forms Part Of: Report of the Fixed-Interest Working Group, B.A.J. 4, II Pg.213–383]
Authors: Cairns A.J.G.
Published: June 2011

This paper discusses possible approaches to the construction of gilt yield indices published by the Financial Times. The existing method, described by Dobbie & Wilkie (1978) splits bonds into high, medium and low-coupon bands and fits separate yield curves to each. This method has been identified as susceptible to ‘catastrophic’ jumps when the least-squares fit jumps from one set of parameters to another set of quite different values. This problem is a result of non-linearities in the least-squares formula which can give rise to more than one local minimum. A desire to remove the risk of catastrophic changes prompted this research, which is being carried out as part of the work of the Fixed Interest Working Group.

Recent changes in the taxation of bonds has, further, prompted the need for a review of the yield indices. Significantly, since the announcement of the new tax regime, the old coupon effect has been removed. This has made the use of a single forward-rate curve appropriate for the first time.

A particular form of forward-rate curve is proposed as the basis for a revision of the gilt yield indices. This curve appears to give a significantly better fit than the present yield–curve model. It is also argued that the risk of catastrophic jumps has been reduced significantly.
Aspects of Pricing in the London Market
Authors: Sanders D.E.A. , Hitchcox A.N. , Manjrekar R.
Published: June 2011

Actuaries have become increasingly involved in general insurance, and in particular, in the London Market. This paper examines the management of the pricing process in the context of the London Market, and deals with concepts such as profit testing, risk and reward, and setting underwriting targets. The key area covered is the communication of a strategy in a meaningful way that can be controlled at the operating level.
Traded Endowments
Authors: McGurk P.
Published: June 2011

The paper describes the main features of the market in traded endowment policies (TEPs) and the role of the main players in the market. The controversial, and related, issues of how to put a value on a traded endowment policy and the information given to investors are examined. The issues facing life offices whose policies are traded are discussed.
Continuing Care Retirement Communities — Attractive to Members, But What About Sponsors?
Authors: Humble R.A. , Ryan D.G.
Published: June 2011

This paper is concerned with the development and operation of Continuing Care Retirement Communities (CCRCs). The paper examines the financial structure of a CCRC, being developed by the Joseph Rowntree Housing Trust, and describes a population model utilising transition probabilities to project care needs and financial performance.

The paper then explores the possibility of commercial organisations becoming involved in this market, and examines the risks that such a venture would entail and the strategies that may be adopted to reduce these risks.
A Note on the Jump-Equilibrium Model
Authors: Huber P.P.
Published: June 2011

This paper considers some of the properties of the jump-equilibrium model suggested by Smith (1996). A more detailed description of the model's derivation is provided. The model is represented in a discrete time format and a number of statistics are derived and discussed.
Traditional Pension Fund Valuation in a Stochastic Asset and Liability Environment
Authors: Wright I.D.
Published: June 2011

Using the stochastic investment model proposed by Wilkie (1995) this paper simulates the progress of a specimen final salary pension scheme over a period of 25 years. Salary experience over the projection period is also assumed to be stochastic. The specimen scheme is assumed to be stable during the projection period with respect to age, pensionable salary in real terms and past pensionable service.

Regular deterministic valuations of the scheme are conducted during the projection period to determine the current level of funding of the scheme on both a discontinuance and an ongoing basis, and also to determine the future contribution rate required to meet the funding objective. The required contribution rate is calculated in accordance with the Inland Revenue surplus regulations and the Minimum Funding Requirement (MFR) introduced in the Pensions Act 1995.

The effect on the level of funding (and, hence, on the size of the required contribution rate) of using different investment strategies and of varying the pace of funding, by adopting both a traditional prudent valuation basis and a more realistic valuation basis, are also explored.
Effective and Ethical Institutional Investment
Authors: Asher A.
Published: June 2011

Those with responsibility for the assets of institutional investors have a fiduciary duty to attempt to earn the best possible risk adjusted returns and to comply with ethical standards. A satisfactory resolution of these, and other, conflicting demands requires a coherent intellectual framework. Such a framework can be based on a traditional scheme that analyses the various components of profit in terms of the requirements of justice. The framework provides a basis for discussing the major challenges facing the institutional investors. These relate to their role in rational asset selection, effective corporate governance, job creation and the minimisation of environmental impact.
Address by the President of the Institute of Actuaries: Lessons from History
Authors: Thornton Paul Noel
Published: June 2011

The Presidential Address celebrates the 150th anniversary of the Institute of Actuaries by recalling speeches and press comments from the time of its foundation in 1848, and goes on to draw parallels between the issues of the day and those facing the profession in 1998. Foremost of these, there is a continuing emphasis on the public interest; it remains important for the Institute to be a learned society, and educational requirements have continued to be a central part of the profession's activities. The need for the profession to become more deeply involved in investment research is identified. A particular issue highlighted in the address is the constraint placed on the profession's growth and breadth by heavy reliance on self-study; much greater involvement of the universities is recommended.

In 1848, as in 1998, the potential for actuaries to use their skills in fields beyond life assurance was recognised, but the address notes that the opportunity to become involved in banking has never been properly grasped.

The leading role of the United Kingdom in the international development of the actuarial profession has continued throughout the history of the Institute, and recent developments in the International Actuarial Association are noted.

The need to educate clients and the wider public in what it is that actuaries do and how they go about it is the remaining major theme.

The final section identifies some current issues needing urgent attention, including the need to influence the shape of national and international accounting standards.
A Crisis of Longer Life: Reforming Pension Systems
Authors: Daykin C. D. , Lewis D.
Published: June 2011

The text of this paper, together with the abstract of the discussion by the Institute of Actuaries and the Society of Actuaries in Ireland on 18 September 1998, are printed in British Actuarial Journal, 5, I, 55-113.
Notes on the FTSE Actuaries Share Indices: United Kingdom Series: 1998
Authors: Brumwell J. C. H.
Published: June 2011

Consolidation of the FTSE Actuaries Share Indices in real time. Preparations for the internationalisation of the industry classification system in 1999.
Notes on the FT/S&P Actuaries World Indices: 1998 Constituent Changes
Authors: Brumwell J. C. H.
Published: June 2011

This is the twelfth year of publication of the FT/S&P Actuaries World Indices. Equity Indices are now given for 29 countries, 15 regional groups and the World. Greece, Portugal (and the Eurobloc) were added in 1998, but Malaysia was ejected.
The Role and Responsibilities of Actuaries in the Defined Contribution Environment in the United Kingdom
Authors: Stocker M.A. , Dudley S.D. , Finlay G.E. , Fisher H.J. , Wood O. C. Harvey , Kemp M. H. D. , Lumb W. , Miles M. W. , Wasserman S.L.
Published: June 2011

This paper takes an overview of the potential roles and responsibilities of pension scheme actuaries in the United Kingdom in relation to defined contribution (DC) schemes.

First it summarises briefly the background to UK retirement provision and in particular the move to DC arrangements. The paper then compares and contrasts the pension scheme actuary's current role in both defined benefit (DB) and DC schemes. This is then developed to consider what further statutory roles there may be for actuaries in DC schemes.

The paper challenges the profession to champion the public interest by seeking clarity and simplification, and finally considers the impact on actuarial employment.
Financial Services and Investment Markets in a Low Inflationary Environment
Authors: Nowell P.J. , Crispin J.R. , Iqbal M. , Margutti S.F. , Muldoon A.
Published: June 2011

A working party was set up in February 1999 by the Research Committee of the Life Board to consider the impact of a low inflationary environment on the financial services and investment markets with particular emphasis on companies conducting long-term insurance business.

The working party has produced an interim report which reviews the causes of the present expectation of low inflation and discusses evidence from the past and the role of demographics. It considers issues surrounding the composition of the retail price index, appropriate economic assumptions and the impact on investment markets, including the effect of charges on net returns to savers. The position of long-term insurance business is then considered in more detail, looking at HM Treasury return consequences as well as disclosure and product design features. Finally, there are two investigations, the first looking at the effect of low inflation on the achieved profits derived from different product designs, and the second looking at the changes in ruin probability for a with-profits office associated with declining inflation.
Address by the President of the Faculty of Actuaries
Authors: Murray George Malcolm
Published: June 2011

The Presidential Address covers various aspects of the actuarial profession; past, present and into the future. It considers mutual life companies and their current situation. There needs to be improved education in investment and more actuaries should be involved in this area. The codes of conduct and disciplinary procedures of the profession have to be kept under constant review. The international actuarial scene is of great importance, with mutual recognition of qualifications, the various groupings of actuaries and of actuarial associations world wide and the expansion of the profession into further countries all part of current activities. Various alternative options for the future of the profession in the U.K. are suggested.
Capital Projects
Authors: Lewin C.G. , Carne S.A. , de Rivaz N.F.C. , Hall R.E.G. , McKelvey K.J. , Wilkie A.D.
Published: June 2011

The paper surveys the present state of knowledge about the appraisal and control of capital projects, and identifies the useful contribution which actuaries can make to the process.

Relevant theoretical considerations are discussed, including the choice of appropriate discount rates for use by companies when screening proposals. It is recommended that discount rates should be lower than those commonly used. Some practical working methods are summarised and examples are given of how risk analysis can be carried out, for both simple and complex appraisals. Attention is drawn to the special ‘social’ considerations which may apply in the case of Government projects. The opportunities now opening up for joint ventures between the UK Government and private sector partners are examined, and it is concluded that proper sharing of costs and risks can facilitate arrangements which are acceptable to both sides.

The paper concludes with a discussion of the procedures which companies can use to identify, appraise, control and monitor projects.
Asset Shares and their Use in the Financial Management of a With-Profits Fund
Authors: Needleman P.D. , Roff T.A.
Published: June 2011

This paper describes current asset share techniques, examines alternative asset share philosophies and discusses practical issues associated with the calculations. Alternative approaches to smoothing payouts using asset shares are examined. A financial management framework is described which provides information on the financial position of a with-profits fund. A central part of the framework is the concept of risk-based capital. The factors to be considered in determining risk-based capital are described and examples given of the possible capital needs of with-profits business.
Address by the President of the Institute of Actuaries. Raising Our Game
Authors: Dumbreck Nicholas John
Published: June 2011

This Presidential Address considers what needs to be done to enable the United Kingdom actuarial profession to flourish in a more competitive environment. It addresses the need for continued modernisation of the actuarial skill-set, and the need to pay greater attention to the way we communicate our findings. The Address briefly reviews some of the recent changes to the regulation of life assurance in the U.K. before considering the role and structure of the professional body in the post-Morris era. It ends with some thoughts on developments in education and CPD.
Applying Survival Models to Pensioner Mortality Data
Authors: Richards S. J.
Published: June 2011

Data from insurance portfolios and pension schemes lend themselves particularly well to the application of survival models. In addition to the traditional actuarial risk-rating factors of age, gender and policy size, we find that using geodemographic models based on postcode provides a major boost in explaining risk variation. Geodemographic models can be better than models based on pension size in explaining socio-economic variation, but a model using both is usually better still. Models acknowledging heterogeneity tend to fit better than models which do not. Finally, bootstrapping techniques can be used to test the financial applicability of a model, while weighting the model fit can be used to address concentration risk.
Pensions and Low Inflation
Authors: Meredith P.M.C. , Horsfall N.P. , Harrison J.M. , Kneller K. , Knight J.M. , Murphy R.F.
Published: June 2011

This Working Party has considered the pensions implications of a prolonged period of low inflation. Experience in the United States of America suggests weaker correlation between equity and bond returns and greater overall volatility of returns. Without a further significant increase in the valuation of equities relative to their underlying economic activity, the cost of pensions will rise, possibly as much as doubling within the next 15 years. It follows that for defined contribution schemes and personal pensions, current contribution levels are likely to produce disappointing and generally inadequate results. Similarly, the costs of defined benefit promises will increase. Future defined benefit provision is also vulnerable to the mismatch of mainly equity assets with mainly fixed liabilities and is therefore difficult to control. Many practical issues of scheme design still reflect past inflation and need to be addressed.
Pricing Derivatives under the Wilkie Model
Authors: Kemp M.H.D.
Published: June 2011

This paper describes how to calculate approximate prices of options if investment markets are being modelled according to the Wilkie investment model.
Risk Budgeting in Pension Investment
Authors: Urwin R.C. , Breban S.J. , Hodgson T.M. , Hunt A.
Published: June 2011

This paper extends the concept of investment efficiency from investment management structures to include strategic asset allocation and liability related issues. The concept of risk budgeting is developed. It represents a valuable way of incorporating risk and return information to produce more efficient investment decisions. Information ratio is a key measurement in the process, and it is concluded that the risk budget should be allocated based upon the marginal contribution to it for different sources of risk. Non-financial risk is also considered in terms of both governance and risk.
Determinants of United Kingdom General Insurance Company Performance
Authors: Shiu Y.
Published: June 2011

Dynamic financial analysis has become one of the important tools that actuaries use to model the underwriting and investment operations of insurance companies. The first step in carrying out the analysis is to investigate the most important factors affecting company performance. This paper identifies the determinants of the performance of United Kingdom general insurance companies using a panel data set consisting of economic data and Financial Services Authority/Department of Trade and Industry returns over the period 1986 to 1999. Three performance measures are used to capture different aspects of insurance operations. These measures are related to a number of economic and firm specific variables, chosen on the basis of relevant theory and literature. An ordinary least squares regression model and two panel data models are estimated for each of three performance measures. This paper also addresses several important econometric problems that are usually ignored in applied work in the context of panel data analysis. Based on the empirical results, this study finds that liquidity, unexpected inflation, interest rate level and underwriting profits are statistically significant determinants of the performance of U.K. general insurers.
Notes on Options, Hedging, Prudential Reserves and Fair Values
Authors: Wilkie A. D. , Owen M. P. , Waters H. R.
Published: June 2011

In this paper we present many investigations into the results of simulating the process of hedging a vanilla option at discrete times. We consider mainly a ‘maxi’ option (paying Max(A, B)), though calls, puts and ‘minis’ are also considered. We show the sensitivity of the variability of the hedging error to the actual investment strategy adopted, and to the many ways in which the simulated real world can diverge from the assumed option pricing model. We show how prudential reserves can be calculated, using conditional tail expectations, and how net premiums or fair values (which we present as the same) can be calculated, allowing for the necessary prudential reserves. We use two bond models, the very simple Black-Scholes one and a less unrealistic one. We also use the Wilkie model as an even more realistic real-world model, allowing for many complications in it to make it more realistic. We make observations on the important difference between real-world models and option pricing models, and emphasise the latter as the way of getting hedging quantities, and not just option prices.
Computing Bonus–Malus Premiums under Partial Prior Information
Authors: Gómez-Déniz E. , Bermúdez L. , Morillo I.
Published: June 2011

The use of classical bonus–malus systems entails very high maluses and other problems which, during recent years, have been criticised by actuaries. To avoid these problems, new bonus–malus models have been developed. For instance, it is well known that the use of an exponential loss function reduces the differences between overcharges and undercharges, solving the problem of high maluses. In order to measure the sensitivity of the exponential bonus–malus system, and according to robust Bayesian analysis, we first model the structure function by specifying a subclass of the generalised moments class. We then examine the range of relativities for each prior. Finally, we illustrate our method with a numerical example based on real data.
Address by The President of the Faculty of Actuaries
Authors: Brown Harvie Walker
Published: June 2011

This Presidential Address takes place at a time of great change for the Actuarial Profession, not least the review of the Actuarial Profession by Sir Derek Morris and his team. The Address concentrates on the changes that the Actuarial Profession, like many other professions, needs to address from a professional perspective in the 21st century. Key aspects such as peer review, monitoring of compliance with standards, CPD and revalidation of a member's competence are considered and the changes that need to be made in these areas outlined. A review of the complicated area of Conflicts of Interest as it impacts on the work of actuaries, especially in today's business environment and the high expectations of clients, points towards the need for additional professional guidance in this area. The need for an Independent Actuarial Standards Board with a significant non-actuarial membership to take responsibility for the standard setting process of the Actuarial Profession is a necessity going forward.
Current Developments in Embedded Value Reporting
Authors: O'Keeffe P. J. L. , Desai A. J. , Foroughi K. , Hibbett G. J. , Maxwell A. F. , Sharp A. C. , Taverner N. H. , Ward M. B. , Willis F. J. P.
Published: June 2011

This paper reviews the developments in reporting of traditional embedded value and summarises some of the reasons why this is now undergoing change. It considers the purpose of an embedded value calculation and the effect of differing attitudes to risk. It comments on the recently developed European Embedded Value Principles and sets out the main areas where scope remains to apply judgement.

The paper proposes the market-consistent embedded value framework as a way forward to help provide guidance in some of these areas, in particular on the choice of discount rate and on calibration of stochastic techniques used to value embedded options and guarantees. The paper recognises that market-consistent embedded values are in relative infancy and sets out areas for possible future development.
The Modelling of Extreme Events
Authors: Sanders D. E. A.
Published: June 2011

The modelling of extreme events is becoming of increased importance to actuaries. This paper outlines the various theories. It outlines the consistent theory underlying many of the differing approaches and gives examples of the analysis of models. A review of non-standard extreme events is given, and issues of public policy are outlined.
On the Graduation of ‘Amounts’
Authors: Renshaw A.E. , Hatzopoulos P.
Published: June 2011

The provision of graduated mortality rates, for the United Kingdom pensioners' experience, based on the so-called ‘amounts’ data sets is addressed. Specifically a methodology is investigated, building on the existing methods practiced by the CMI Bureau, which takes a more detailed account of the underlying structure of the data involved. The method is applied to the U.K. pensioners' experience and recent mortality trends in this experience revealed.
Developments in Social Security and Pensions World-Wide
Authors: Daykin C.D.
Published: June 2011

This paper considers the variety of social security and complementary pension scheme arrangements which have developed in different countries, and examines some recent trends in pension reforms, designed to address the problem of the ageing population and other structural shortcomings in existing structures.
The Modelling of Recent Mortality Trends in United Kingdom Male Assured Lives
Authors: Renshaw A.E. , Haberman S. , Hatzopoulos P.
Published: June 2011

Deaths and exposures by individual calendar year and individual years of age for the U.K. male assured lives experience over the recent past are comprehensively modelled using generalised linear modelling techniques. Our principal objective is to develop a model which incorporates both the age variation in mortality and the underlying time trends in the mortality rates. The approach has considerable advantages overad hocmethods of fitting parametric models to represent the age variation in mortality and then separately attempting to represent the time trends in the parameters of these models. The approach advocated can be seen as an extension to the conventional parametric graduation techniques used by the CMI Bureau to represent trends in mortality.
Recent Developments in Life Office Financial Reporting
Authors: Gallen M.C. , Kipling M.R.
Published: June 2011

The European Community 3rd Life and Insurance Accounts Directives have necessitated changes to United Kingdom life insurers' statutory solvency valuations and published accounts. This paper details these, together with associated guidance. It also describes certain other developments in U.K. life office financial reporting and discusses some inter-professional issues.
Ruin Problems: Simulation or Calculation?
Authors: Dickson D.C.M. , Waters H.R.
Published: June 2011

In this paper we use a case study of a non-life insurance portfolio to demonstrate how recent research in ruin theory can be applied to solvency problems. By approximating the aggregate claims distribution for the portfolio by a translated gamma distribution, we estimate ruin probabilities through a recursive procedure when the insurer earns investment income on its surplus. We also show the results of applying simulation techniques to this problem, and discuss some advantages and disadvantages of simulation as a means of assessing ruin probabilities. Finally we discuss the calculation of the probability of ruin at the end of a specified time period.
Stochastic Investment Modelling: The Case of South Africa
Authors: Thomson R.J.
Published: June 2011

The purpose of this paper is to describe a methodology for determining an appropriate structure for time-series models of inflation rates, short-term and long-term interest rates, dividend growth rates, dividend yields, rental growth rates and rental yields and to demonstrate the application of that methodology to the development of a model based on South African data. It is suggested that the methodology used in this paper may be applied to other economic environments.
The Myners Review and Subsequent Issues
Authors: Myners P.
Published: June 2011

INTRODUCTION

An Open Meeting was held by the Faculty of Actuaries on 15 October 2001, when Mr Myners addressed his audience on a number of the issues raised in his review, Institutional Investment in the United Kingdom: a Review. This was followed by a discussion. The lecture and an abstract of the discussion are printed after this introduction.

A second meeting on the subject was held on 16 October. This was a joint Seminar, arranged by the Faculty of Actuaries and the Centre for Financial Markets Research, University of Edinburgh. This seminar covered a number of issues raised by the Myners Review. The purpose of the seminar was to open up to discussion a number of the issues raised by the review where there appeared to be differences of opinion amongst practitioners. In particular, the investment process, investment performance and fees, especially commissions, were discussed. Academics, investment, performance measurement and pension specialists attended the seminar.
Notes on the Ftse Actuaries Share Indices (United Kingdom Series) in 2001
Authors: Brumwell J.C.H.
Published: June 2011

Consolidation of the FTSE Actuaries Share Indices Series and of the FTSE Global Industry Classification System. Introduction of ‘free float’ weightings (in six bands) on 18 June 2001.