bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
North Pacific Cloud Feedbacks Inferred from Synoptic-Scale Dynamic and Thermodynamic Relationships
Authors: Norris Joel R. , Iacobellis Sam F.
Published: December 2005

Daily satellite cloud observations and reanalysis dynamical parameters are analyzed to determine how midtropospheric vertical velocity and advection over the sea surface temperature gradient control midlatitude North Pacific cloud properties. Optically thick clouds with high tops are generated by synoptic ascent, but two different cloud regimes occur under synoptic descent. When vertical motion is downward during summer, extensive stratocumulus cloudiness is associated with near-surface northerly wind, while frequent cloudless pixels occur with southerly wind. Examination of ship-reported cloud types indicates that midlatitude stratocumulus breaks up as the boundary layer decouples when it is advected equatorward over warmer water. Cumulus is prevalent under conditions of synoptic descent and cold advection during winter. Poleward advection of subtropical air over colder water causes stratification of the near-surface layer that inhibits upward mixing of moisture and suppresses cloudiness until a fog eventually forms. Averaging of cloud and radiation data into intervals of 500-hPa vertical velocity and advection over the SST gradient enables the cloud response to changes in temperature and the stratification of the lower troposphere to be investigated independent of the dynamics. Vertically uniform warming results in decreased cloud amount and optical thickness over a large range of dynamical conditions. Further calculations indicate that a decrease in the variance of vertical velocity would lead to a small decrease in mean cloud optical thickness and cloud-top height. These results suggest that reflection of solar radiation back to space by midlatitude oceanic clouds will decrease as a direct response to global warming, thus producing an overall positive feedback on the climate system. An additional decrease in solar reflection would occur were the storm track also to weaken, whereas an intensification of the storm track would partially cancel the cloud response to warming.
Transmission of Solar Radiation by Clouds over Snow and Ice Surfaces. Part II: Cloud Optical Depth and Shortwave Radiative Forcing from Pyranometer Measurements in the Southern Ocean
Authors: Fitzpatrick Melanie F. , Warren Stephen G.
Published: December 2005

Downward solar irradiance at the sea surface, measured on several voyages of an icebreaker in the Southern Ocean, is used to infer transmittance of solar radiation by clouds. Together with surface albedo estimated from coincident hourly sea ice reports, instantaneous cloud radiative forcing and effective cloud optical depth are obtained. Values of “raw cloud transmittance” (trc), the ratio of downward irradiance under cloud to downward irradiance measured under clear sky, vary from 0.1 to 1.0. Over sea ice, few values of trc were observed between 0.8 and 1.0, possibly due to the threshold nature of the aerosol-to-cloud-droplet transition. This sparsely populated region of transmittances is referred to as the Köhler gap.

The instantaneous downward shortwave cloud radiative forcing is computed, as well as the time-averaged net forcing. The net forcing at a solar zenith angle of 60° is typically −250 W m−2 over open ocean, but only half this value over sea ice because of the higher surface albedo and less frequent occurrence of clouds.

“Effective” optical depths τ (for a radiatively equivalent horizontally homogeneous cloud) are classified by season and surface type. The frequency distributions of τ are well fitted by decaying exponentials, giving a characteristic optical depth of 15 at 47°S, increasing to 24 in the region of maximum cloud cover at 58°S, and decreasing to 11 at 67°S near the coast of Antarctica.
Differences in Annual Cycle and 30–60-Day Oscillations between the Summers of Strong and Weak Convection over the Tropical Western North Pacific
Authors: Lu Riyu , Ren Baohua , Chung Hyo-Sang
Published: December 2005

In this study, based on the cases of strong and weak June–August (JJA) mean convection over the tropical western North Pacific, composite analyses are performed by using the satellite-observed outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) data for the 23-yr period from 1979 to 2001, and the contrast features of the composite seasonal evolution of the convection between the strong and weak cases are examined. Anomalous annual cycle and 30–60-day oscillations, that is, two components of the seasonal evolution, and their relative contributions to the anomalous seasonal evolution is analyzed.

The authors find that in the composite sense, convection exhibits a larger (smaller) seasonal change during the strong (weak) JJA mean convection summers. The strong (weak) JJA mean convection corresponds to enhanced (suppressed) convection of the annual cycle from the beginning of the year to September, and such a difference in the annual cycle between strong and weak cases is most significant from May to August. On the other hand, the composite 30–60-day oscillations for the strong cases have greater amplitudes than the weak cases, and the phases of the 30–60-day oscillations tend to be more consistent for the strong cases than for the weak cases. Both annual cycle and 30–60-day oscillations contribute to the interannual variation of the seasonal evolution.
Why Is There an Early Spring Cooling Shift Downstream of the Tibetan Plateau?
Authors: Li Jian , Yu Rucong , Zhou Tianjun , Wang Bin
Published: December 2005

The temperature shift over the eastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau is examined using the last 50 yr of Chinese surface station observations. It was found that a strong cooling shift occurs in early spring (March and April) and late summer (July, August, and September) in contrast to the warming shift in other seasons. The cause of the March–April (MA) cooling is investigated in this study.

The MA cooling shift on the lee side of the Tibetan Plateau is found to be not a local phenomenon, but rather it is associated with an eastward extension of a cooling signal originating from North Africa that is related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the previous winter. The midtropospheric westerlies over the North Atlantic and North Africa tend to intensify during positive NAO phases. The enhanced westerlies, after passing over the Tibetan Plateau, result in strengthened ascending motion against the lee side of the plateau, which favors the formation of midlevel stratiform clouds. The increased amount of stratus clouds induces a negative net cloud–radiative forcing, which thereby cools the surface air and triggers a positive cloud–temperature feedback. In this way, the cooling signal from the upstream could “jump” over the Tibetan Plateau and leave a footprint on its lee side. The continental stratiform cloud–climate feedback plays a significant role in the amplification of the cooling shift downstream of the Tibetan Plateau.
The Shortcomings of Nonlinear Principal Component Analysis in Identifying Circulation Regimes
Authors: Christiansen Bo
Published: December 2005

Recent studies of regime behavior in the extratropical variability have been based on a nonlinear extension to principal component analysis. Multimodality has been identified in the nonlinear principal component, and the multimodality has been interpreted as evidence for the existence of multiple circulation regimes. Here, multimodality is shown to be abundant in nonlinear principal component analysis when applied to sufficiently isotropic data even if these data are inherently unimodal. It is recommended that the nonlinear principal component analysis should not be used for detection of multimodality and regime behavior.
Classification of Annual Great Lakes Ice Cycles: Winters of 1973–2002*
Authors: Assel Raymond A.
Published: December 2005

Annual seasonal average ice cover from 1973 to 2002 and associated dates of first ice, last ice, and ice duration are presented and discussed. The annual seasonal average ice cover of each Great Lake is used to define three ice cycle classes: mild, typical, and severe. About half of the severe ice cycles occurred from 1977 to 1982 and about half of the mild ice cycles occurred from 1998 to 2002. The seasonal progression of daily lake-averaged ice cover, spatial differences in ice cover, and differences among the Great Lakes for mild, typical, and severe ice cycles are discussed within the context of lake bathymetry and winter air temperatures. Seasonal average ice cover is larger on Lakes Superior, Erie, and Huron relative to Lakes Michigan and Ontario, because of shallower depths (for Erie and Huron) and lower air temperatures (for Superior) relative to Lakes Michigan and Ontario. This ice cycle classification scheme can be used to compare future Great Lakes ice cycle severity with this 30-winter benchmark.
El Niño and Greenhouse Warming: Results from Ensemble Simulations with the NCAR CCSM
Authors: Zelle Hein , Jan van Oldenborgh Geert , Burgers Gerrit , Dijkstra Henk
Published: December 2005

The changes in model ENSO behavior due to an increase in greenhouse gases, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Business-As-Usual scenario, are investigated using a 62-member ensemble 140-yr simulation (1940–2080) with the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model (CCSM; version 1.4). Although the global mean surface temperature increases by about 1.2 K over the period 2000–80, there are no significant changes in the ENSO period, amplitude, and spatial patterns. To explain this behavior, an analysis of the simulation results is combined with results from intermediate complexity coupled ocean–atmosphere models. It is shown that this version of the CCSM is incapable of simulating a correct meridional extension of the equatorial wind stress response to equatorial SST anomalies. The wind response pattern is too narrow and its strength is insensitive to background SST. This leads to a more stable Pacific climate system, a shorter ENSO period, and a reduced sensitivity of ENSO to global warming.
Are Precipitation Levels Getting Higher? Statistical Evidence for the Netherlands
Authors: Koning Alex J. , Franses Philip Hans
Published: December 2005

One of the possible consequences of global warming is that there will be more days with precipitation throughout the year, and also that the level of precipitation will be higher. In this paper a detailed statistical analysis of a century of daily precipitation levels is provided for the central meteorological station in the Netherlands. This paper shows that the often-considered gamma distribution does not fit well to samples of yearly data. It is argued that its incorrect use can lead to spuriously high probabilities of extreme precipitation levels. Relying on advanced nonparametric techniques, it is first found that there are fewer rainy days in the central part of the Netherlands. Next, more rainy days involve higher precipitation levels. Most importantly, no statistically significant shift is found in the annual largest values of daily rainfall over the course of the century, which suggest that the probability of extremely high levels has not changed over time.
Interannual and Interdecadal Rainfall Variations in the Hawaiian Islands*
Authors: Chu Pao-Shin , Chen Huaiqun
Published: December 2005

Hawaii rainfall has exhibited both interannual and interdecadal variations. On the interannual time scale, Hawaii tends to be dry during most El Niño events, but low rainfall also occurred in the absence of El Niño. On the interdecadal time scale, Hawaii rainfall is negatively and significantly correlated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) signal; an epoch of low rainfall persists from the mid-1970s to 2001, which is preceded by an epoch of high rainfall lasting for nearly 28 yr.

Difference patterns in winter [November–December–January–February–March (NDJFM)] rainfall are investigated for composites of extremely dry and wet winters during the dry and wet epochs, respectively. These patterns (i.e., DRY minus WET) are then compared to the difference in constructive match conditions of El Niño and PDO (i.e., El Niño/+PDO minus La Niña/−PDO). Relative to the El Niño/PDO stage, the magnitude of dryness during the rainfall-based stage is enhanced. The corresponding large-scale atmospheric circulation composites are studied. Similar patterns are revealed between these two stages. However, anomalously stronger and deeper sinking motions over Hawaii are revealed in the height–latitude section of the rainfall-based analysis compared to the El Niño/PDO stage. Moreover, an anomalous zonal circulation cell is well established over the subtropical North Pacific with a pronounced descending branch over Hawaii in the rainfall-based stage. The band of anomalous surface westerlies to the north of Hawaii, and the deep sinking motion as well as the anomalously vertically integrated moisture flux divergence over Hawaii are all unfavorable for rainfall in Hawaii.
Rethinking Tropical Ocean Response to Global Warming: The Enhanced Equatorial Warming*
Authors: Liu Zhengyu , Vavrus Steve , He Feng , Wen Na , Zhong Yafang
Published: December 2005

The response of tropical Pacific SST to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration is reexamined with a new focus on the latitudinal SST gradient. Available evidence, mainly from climate models, suggests that an important tropical SST fingerprint to global warming is an enhanced equatorial warming relative to the subtropics. This enhanced equatorial warming provides a fingerprint of SST response more robust than the traditionally studied El Niño–like response, which is characterized by the zonal SST gradient. Most importantly, the mechanism of the enhanced equatorial warming differs fundamentally from the El Niño–like response; the former is associated with surface latent heat flux, shortwave cloud forcing, and surface ocean mixing, while the latter is associated with equatorial ocean upwelling and wind-upwelling dynamic ocean–atmosphere feedback.
A Dissipation Function for the Internal Wave Radiative Balance Equation
Authors: Natarov Andrei , Müller Peter
Published: December 2005

The radiative balance equation describes the evolution of the internal wave action density spectrum n (k) in response to propagation, generation, nonlinear transfer, dissipation, and other processes. Dissipation is assumed to be due primarily to wave breaking, either by shear or gravitational instability. As part of the Internal Wave Action Model (IWAM) modeling effort, a family of dissipation functions is studied that is to account for this dissipation by wave breaking in the radiative balance equation. The dissipation function is of the quasi-linear form Sdiss = −γ (k, Ri−1) n(k), where the dissipation coefficient γ depends on wavenumber k and inverse Richardson number Ri−1. It is based on the dissipation model of Garrett and Gilbert (1988) and contains three free adjustable parameters: c0, p, and q. To gain insight into the role that each of the free parameters plays in the dissipative decay of the wave spectrum, we first consider simple examples that can be solved analytically: the response to homogeneous and stationary forcing, the free temporal decay of a Garrett and Munk spectrum, and the spatial decay of a monochromatic and bichromatic spectrum. Then the more complex problem of the reflection of an incoming Garrett and Munk spectrum off a linear slope is solved numerically. In these examples, the parameter c0 determines how rapidly the spectrum decays in space or time, p the form or shape of this decay, and q the relative decay of different wavenumbers. These dependencies are sufficiently strong to suggest that the free parameters can eventually be calibrated by comparing solutions of the radiative balance equation with observations, using inverse techniques.
A Statistical Approach to Ground Radar-Rainfall Estimation
Authors: Tadesse Alemu , Anagnostou Emmanouil N.
Published: December 2005

This paper presents development of a statistical procedure for estimation of ensemble rainfall fields from a combination of ground radar observations and in situ rain gauge measurements. The uncertainty framework characterizes radar-rainfall estimation algorithm limitation accounting for rain gauge sampling uncertainty. The procedure is applied on a multicomponent rainfall estimation algorithm, which utilizes a rain-path attenuation correction technique, a power-law reflectivity-to-rainfall (Z–R) relationship, and a parameter to differentiate between convective (C) and stratiform (S) regimes in the Z–R conversion. Uncertainty is explicitly accounted for by evaluating the algorithm’s parameter set posterior probability density function (known as parameters’ equifinality) on the basis of the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. The study is facilitated by NASA’s C-band Doppler radar [named the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere (TOGA)] observations and four dense rain gauge clusters available from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Large-Scale Biosphere–Atmosphere (LBA) experiment, conducted between January and February of 1999 in Southwest Amazon. Statistics are proposed for jointly evaluating the wideness of radar retrieval uncertainty limits [uncertainty ratio (UR)] and the percentage of observations that fall within those error bounds [exceedance ratio (ER)]. Results show that the parameter range selected in GLUE could characterize the radar-rainfall estimation uncertainty. Combined assessment of UR and ER for a varying range of parameters’ equifinality provides an objective basis for comparing rain retrieval algorithms and determining uncertainty bounds. Ensemble radar-rainfall fields derived on the basis of this procedure can be used to statistically assess satellite rain retrieval algorithms and derive ensemble hydrologic predictions driven by radar-rainfall input (e.g., runoff and soil moisture).
Spaceborne Doppler Radar Measurements of Rainfall: Correction of Errors Induced by Pointing Uncertainties
Authors: Tanelli Simone , Im Eastwood , Kobayashi Satoru , Mascelloni Roberto , Facheris Luca
Published: December 2005

In this paper a sea surface radar echo spectral analysis technique to correct for the rainfall velocity error caused by radar-pointing uncertainty is presented. The correction procedure is quite straightforward when the radar is observing a homogeneous rainfall field. When nonuniform beam filling (NUBF) occurs and attenuating frequencies are used, however, additional steps are necessary in order to correctly estimate the antenna-pointing direction. This new technique relies on the application of the combined frequency–time (CFT) algorithm to correct for uneven attenuation effects on the observed sea surface Doppler spectrum. The performance of this correction technique was evaluated by a Monte Carlo simulation of the Doppler precipitation radar backscatter from high-resolution 3D rain fields (either generated by a cloud resolving numerical model or retrieved from airborne radar measurements). The results show that the antenna-pointing-induced error can, indeed, be reduced by the proposed technique in order to achieve 1 m s−1 accuracy on rainfall vertical velocity estimates.
Correction of Radar Reflectivity and Differential Reflectivity for Rain Attenuation at X Band. Part I: Theoretical and Empirical Basis
Authors: Park S-G. , Bringi V. N. , Chandrasekar V. , Maki M. , Iwanami K.
Published: December 2005

In this two-part paper, a correction for rain attenuation of radar reflectivity (ZH) and differential reflectivity (ZDR) at the X-band wavelength is presented. The correction algorithm that is used is based on the self-consistent method with constraints proposed by Bringi et al., which was originally developed and evaluated for C-band polarimetric radar data. The self-consistent method is modified for the X-band frequency and is applied to radar measurements made with the multiparameter radar at the X-band wavelength (MP-X) operated by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED) in Japan. In this paper, characteristic properties of relations among polarimetric variables, such as AH–KDP, ADP–AH, AH–ZH, and ZDR–ZH, that are required in the correction methodology are presented for the frequency of the MP-X radar (9.375 GHz), based on scattering simulations using drop spectra measured by disdrometers at the surface. The scattering simulations were performed under conditions of three different temperatures and three different relations for drop shapes, in order to consider variability of polarimetric variables for these conditions. For the X-band wavelength, the AH–KDP and ADP–AH relations can be assumed to be nearly linear. The coefficient α of the AH–KDP relation varies over a wide range from 0.139 to 0.335 dB (°)−1 with a mean value of 0.254 dB (°)−1. The coefficient γ of the ADP–AH relation varies from 0.114 to 0.174, with a mean value of 0.139. The exponent b of the AH–ZH relation does not depend on drop shapes and is almost constant for a given temperature (about 0.78 at the temperature of 15°C). The ZDR–ZH relation depends primarily on drop shape, and does not vary with temperature.
Correction of Radar Reflectivity and Differential Reflectivity for Rain Attenuation at X Band. Part II: Evaluation and Application
Authors: Park S-G. , Maki M. , Iwanami K. , Bringi V. N. , Chandrasekar V.
Published: December 2005

In this paper, the attenuation-correction methodology presented in Part I is applied to radar measurements observed by the multiparameter radar at the X-band wavelength (MP-X) of the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention (NIED), and is evaluated by comparison with scattering simulations using ground-based disdrometer data. Further, effects of attenuation on the estimation of rainfall amounts and drop size distribution parameters are also investigated. The joint variability of the corrected reflectivity and differential reflectivity show good agreement with scattering simulations. In addition, specific attenuation and differential attenuation, which are derived in the correction procedure, show good agreement with scattering simulations. In addition, a composite rainfall-rate algorithm is proposed and evaluated by comparison with eight gauges. The radar-rainfall estimates from the uncorrected (or observed) ZH produce severe underestimation, even at short ranges from the radar and for stratiform rain events. On the contrary, the reflectivity-based rainfall estimates from the attenuation-corrected ZH does not show such severe underestimation and does show better agreement with rain gauge measurements. More accurate rainfall amounts can be obtained from a simple composite algorithm based on specific differential phase KDP, with the R(ZH_cor) estimates being used for low rainfall rates (KDP ≤ 0.3° km−1 or ZH_cor ≤ 35 dBZ). This improvement in accuracy of rainfall estimation based on KDP is a result of the insensitivity of the rainfall algorithm to natural variations of drop size distributions (DSDs). The ZH, ZDR, and KDP data are also used to infer the parameters (median volume diameter D0 and normalized intercept parameter Nw) of a normalized gamma DSD. The retrieval of D0 and Nw from the corrected radar data show good agreement with those from disdrometer data in terms of the respective relative frequency histograms. The results of this study demonstrate that high-quality hydrometeorological information on rain events such as rainfall amounts and DSDs can be derived from X-band polarimetric radars.
Remote Environmental Monitoring Units: An Autonomous Vehicle for Characterizing Coastal Environments*
Authors: Moline Mark A. , Blackwell Shelley M. , von Alt Chris , Allen Ben , Austin Thomas , Case James , Forrester Ned , Goldsborough Robert , Purcell Mike , Stokey Roger
Published: December 2005

In oceanography, there has been a growing emphasis on coastal regions, partially because of their inherent complexity, as well as the increasing acknowledgment of anthropogenic impacts. To improve understanding and characterization of coastal dynamics, there has been significant effort devoted to the development of autonomous systems that sample the ocean on relevant scales. Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are especially well suited for studies of the coastal ocean because they are able to provide near-synoptic spatial observations. These sampling platforms are beginning to transition from the engineering groups that developed and continue to improve them to the science user. With this transition comes novel applications of these vehicles to address new questions in coastal oceanography. Here, the relatively mature Remote Environmental Monitoring Units (REMUS) AUV system is described and assessed. Analysis of data, based on 37 missions and nearly 800 km of in-water operation, shows that the vehicle’s navigational error estimates were consistently less than 10 m, and error estimates of mission duration, distance, velocity, and power usage, once the vehicle was properly ballasted, were below 10%. An example of the transition to science is demonstrated in an experiment conducted in 2002 in Monterey Bay, California, where the vehicle was used to quantify critical horizontal length scales of variability. Length scales on the order of tens to hundreds of meters were found for the region within 25 km of the coastline, which has significant implications for designing proper sampling approaches and parameterizing model domains. Results also demonstrate the overall utility of the REMUS vehicle for use by coastal oceanographers.
Application of Coherent ADCP for Turbulence Measurements in the Bottom Boundary Layer
Authors: Lorke Andreas , Wüest Alfred
Published: December 2005

This paper presents a novel approach for estimating the rate of turbulent kinetic energy dissipation from pulse-coherent acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) measurements using the inertial dissipation method. Although the inertial dissipation technique is widely accepted and used in oceanographic and atmospheric research, its application to ADCP data is limited by the loss of directional information for high-wavenumber velocity fluctuations. However, measurements in the bottom boundary layer of a lake revealed astonishing agreement between dissipation rates estimated from temperature microstructure profiles and those estimated by applying the inertial dissipation method to data from two different brands of ADCPs.
A Comparison of GOES Moisture-Derived Product and GPS-IPW Data during IHOP-2002
Authors: Birkenheuer Daniel , Gutman Seth
Published: December 2005

Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) sounder–derived total column water vapor is compared with other data sources obtained during the 2002 International H2O Project (IHOP-2002) field experiment. Specifically, GPS-derived total integrated precipitable water (GPS-IPW) and radiosonde observations (raob) data are used to assess GOES bias and standard deviation. GPS integrated water calculated from signal delay closely matches raob data, both from special sondes launched for the IHOP-2002 exercise and routine National Weather Service (NWS) soundings. After examining the average differences between GPS and GOES product total precipitable water over the full diurnal cycle between 26 May and 15 June 2002, it was discovered that only 0000 UTC time differences were comparable to published comparisons. Differences at other times were larger and varied by a factor of 6, increasing from 0000 to 1800 UTC, and decreasing thereafter. Reasons for this behavior are explored to a limited degree but with no clear answers to explain the observations. It is concluded that a component of the GOES total precipitable water error (between sonde launches) might be missed when solely assessing the data against synoptic raobs.
Measurement of Atmospheric Turbulence by 2-μm Doppler Lidar
Authors: Smalikho Igor , Köpp Friedrich , Rahm Stephan
Published: December 2005

Two methods for the estimation of the turbulence energy dissipation rate (TEDR) from data measured by a 2-μm coherent Doppler lidar are described in this paper. Based on data measured at the Tarbes-Lourdes-Pyrénées International Airport in summer 2003, height profiles of TEDR have been retrieved. The results of TEDR estimation both from the Doppler spectrum width and from the velocity structure function are compared. Moreover, the experiment has been treated by numerical simulation and the theoretical results have been used for verification of the described methods.
Droplet Spectra Measurements with the FSSP-100. Part II: Coincidence Effects
Authors: Coelho Afrâniode Araújo , Brenguier Jean-Louis , Perrin Thierry
Published: December 2005

At high droplet number concentration, measurements of the droplet number concentration, of the droplet spectrum, and of the liquid water content with the FSSP-100 are significantly affected by the coincidences of particles in the probe’s detection beam and by count losses during the dead time of the probe’s electronics. Accurate statistical procedures have been proposed in the literature for the correction of the coincidence and dead-time losses in the estimation of the droplet number concentration. There are, however, no techniques available for correction of the spectral distortion, hence of the derived liquid water content. The model of probe functioning described in Part I of this series is now used on a stochastic mode in order to simulate all possible events of coincidences and dead-time losses. Observed features, such as variations of the depth of field and beam edge acceptance ratios with the droplet concentration, are correctly reproduced by the simulator. The three most currently used techniques for the correction of the droplet concentration are then evaluated with the simulator. The distortion of the spectral shape is also examined. The simulator shows that the measured droplet mean volume diameter increases with the droplet number concentration, by up to 40% at a concentration of 1500 cm−3. An empirical procedure is finally proposed for the correction of the spectral distortion and of the derived liquid water content.
The Internment of Civilians by Belligerent States during the First World War and the Response of the International Committee of the Red Cross
Authors: Stibbe Matthew
Published: December 2005

Between 1914 and 1918 several hundred thousand ‘enemy aliens’ were interned by the belligerent nations of the first world war, and many more civilians were trapped behind enemy lines in their own countries. This article looks at the efforts made by the International Committee of the Red Cross and other relief agencies to alleviate the plight of non-combatants held in internment camps. It also examines the dilemmas faced by neutral inspection teams, and asks why the ICRC in particular failed in its attempts to secure equal and humane treatment for civilian prisoners. The conclusion briefly considers the longer-term impact of these developments in the light of the even greater challenges facing the ICRC in the 1920s and beyond.
The German Youth Movement and National Socialism: Some Views from Britain
Authors: Tyldesley Mike
Published: December 2005

This article considers the interpretation of the ideological connections (or lack of them) between the German Youth Movement and National Socialism that were presented by Rolf Gardiner and Leslie Paul. Initially focusing on a debate between the two that was conducted in the pages of The Adelphi magazine in 1934, it goes on to consider the development of their views. Gardiner and Paul were probably the most knowledgeable British observers of the German Youth Movement at the time of the debate, and they presented diametrically opposed views. Over roughly the next ten years they went on to change their stance by adopting the position the other had taken in the debate. The article considers the possible import of this debate in the context of wider considerations about the German Youth Movement and politics.
Facing the Fascist Model: Discourse and the Construction of Labour Services in the USA and Sweden in the 1930s and 1940s
Authors: Götz Norbert , Patel Kiran Klaus
Published: December 2005

As a reaction to the Great Depression of the 1930s, many countries introduced labour services. These institutions organized unemployed persons for unskilled work projects for the common good. Labour services focused on unemployed youth and had an explicit educational dimension. In the 1930s, nazi Germany offered the most important example of a labour service in practice. Therefore, all democratic countries with a labour service faced the problem of delimitation. This article examines the discussions and politics surrounding the labour services in the USA and Sweden against the backdrop of the ‘fascist model’. The transnational comparative study analyses how these two Western democracies reacted to this challenge. It demonstrates that the perceptions of the nazi labour service left a deep imprint on both democratic societies. Moreover, there are many parallels in the way in which the Third Reich impinged on their social policies in the 1930s and 1940s.
The BBC and the Censorship of The War Game (1965)
Authors: Chapman James
Published: December 2005

This article explores the controversy surrounding the censorship of the drama-documentary The War Game in 1965, drawing extensively upon primary source material held by the BBC Written Archives Centre and the National Archives. Conceived, written and directed by the young documentary film-maker Peter Watkins, The War Game depicted the aftermath of an imagined nuclear strike on southern England. The BBC commissioned the film only with certain reservations and from the outset made no guarantee that the film would be broadcast on television. After much deliberation, and consultation with senior government officials including Cabinet Secretary Sir Burke Trend, the BBC declined to broadcast The War Game on the grounds that it was ‘too horrifying for the medium of broadcasting’. Responsibility for the decision lay with the BBC’s Chairman of Governors Lord Normanbrook, supported by the Director-General Sir Hugh Greene. The film was, however, given a limited theatrical release in cinemas. The article concludes that the decision not to broadcast The War Game, far from being a conspiracy to keep the ‘truth’ of nuclear warfare from the British public, as Watkins maintained, was instead the result of a range of institutional and cultural factors that caused the BBC to act as it did.
The Escalation of German Reprisal Policy in Occupied France, 1941-42
Authors: Neumaier Christopher
Published: December 2005

This article deals with the escalation of German reprisal policy in occupied France in the years 1941 and 1942. The consequences of the German attack on the Soviet Union on 22 June 1941 became apparent to the occupiers in August and September 1941, when the number of cases of active resistance increased. After a demonstration on 13 August 1941, the first draconic measures were imposed by the Wehrmacht, leading to the execution of two communists and the imprisonment of c. 3000 Jews. Two months later, the first mass executions of hostages were ordered after two members of the German armed forces were assassinated. However, the military administration in Paris soon realized the negative impact of mass executions on the overall situation in France. Therefore, the military commander argued for limited executions and the mass deportation of ‘Jewish Bolsheviks’. The following conflict between Berlin and Paris over the appropriate reprisal policy led to the resignation of the military commander Otto von Stülpnagel and the appointment of his cousin Carl Heinrich von Stülpnagel as his successor, as well as the creation of the post of Higher SS and Police Commander in Paris. It will be shown that, despite these changes in 1942, there was a strong continuity in reprisal policy which in 1941 and 1942 targeted the ideological enemies of the Third Reich: the Jews and the communists. Nevertheless, it has to be admitted that after the arrival of the Higher SS and Police Commander in the summer of 1942 reprisal policy became even more ideologically rooted. Accordingly, when discussing reprisal policy one cannot describe the occupation of France as benign.
Suicide at the End of the Third Reich
Authors: Goeschel Christian
Published: December 2005

The Third Reich culminated in a massive wave of suicides. This article traces the origins of this wave, which took place in the spring of 1945, when there was a general feeling among Germans that everything was coming to an end, and analyses its background with reference to nazi propaganda, the nazi cult of death and the Allied occupation of Germany and its aftermath. It will ask whether this wave of suicides also sheds light on the extent to which German society as a whole had developed an ideological commitment to the nazis. Many Germans felt that there had been a complete breakdown of norms and values, which cannot be explained only by the breakdown of the Third Reich. Many people who committed suicide did not perceive politics, war and everyday life as unconnected, but as elements that merged during a very difficult time. The history of the wave of suicides at the end of the Third Reich sheds new light on the decline and fall of the Third Reich and the difficult transition of Germany from a fascist to a post-fascist society.
The Impact of Analogical Reasoning on US Foreign Policy Towards Kosovo
Authors: Hehir Aidan
Published: December 2005

NATO’s military intervention in Kosovo, the southernmost province of Yugoslavia, in March 1999, was legitimized as the last resort to alleviate the suffering of the Kosovo Albanians. Diplomatic initiatives at Rambouillet, France, had earlier failed to broker an agreement between the Yugoslav authorities and the Kosovar Albanians, leading NATO to assert a moral imperative to intervene. Critics of the intervention maintain that the negotiations were a charade designed to facilitate the execution of a military operation. This article suggests that the failure to reach agreement was a direct consequence of the analogical reasoning employed by the chief US negotiators at the time, Madeleine Albright and Richard Holbrooke. It is difficult to identify what exactly Slobodan Miloševic’s military advisers said during this period without undertaking exhaustive research into Yugoslav military correspondence during the period or conducting interviews with the people themselves, many of whom, such as Miloševic and Dragoljub Ojdanić, are standing trial, or have been tried, at The Hague. The main focus of this article, therefore, is on the analogical reasoning employed by US diplomats. The analogical lens, through which the events in Kosovo were viewed, steered the negotiations down a necessarily confrontational channel, which made it impossible to achieve an agreement. The use of analogical reasoning in international diplomacy is not unique to Kosovo, and this article will argue that future, and ongoing, analysis of US interventions, and foreign policy in general, must take account of the role played by analogical reasoning. Rather than searching for imperial motives behind US foreign policy, observers and academics should initially examine the suitability of the analogies employed by US policymakers and the extent to which they dictate action. Using Kosovo as a case study, this article will outline both the dangers inherent in the over-reliance on analogical reasoning in foreign policy situations and the need to understand the role played by analogies when formulating an accurate analysis of US foreign policy.
Fences, Walls, and the Development of Cities: The Long-Term Effects of the Israeli-Palestinian Land Obstacle
Authors: Aharonovitz Gilad
Published: December 2005

The short-run effects of the security land obstacle on both the Palestinian economy and the level of terror are obvious. This article analyzes its long-run economic effects. A theoretical model of two cities with heterogeneous population and two sectors with a Learning-by-Doing process in one of the sectors is presented, showing that even if both cities can develop when independent, introduction of commuting between the two cities can cause the city that was initially less developed to deteriorate and the other to prosper. The relevance to the Israeli-Palestinian case is established. The obstacle will force the more talented Palestinians to work in their own cities and will therefore enable the development of technology-oriented industry in the Palestinian economy through a Learning-by-Doing process. In the long run, the Palestinian economy will gain from the obstacle. Israel, on the other hand, in case of a conflict in the far future, might find itself facing a more developed enemy.
Machetes and Firearms: The Organization of Massacres in Rwanda
Authors: Verwimp Philip
Published: December 2005

This article is a quantitative study of the use of machetes and firearms during the 1994 genocide in Rwanda, Kibuye Prefecture. The machete is an agricultural tool owned by most Rwandan households and is believed to have been the prime instrument of killing during the genocide. The article addresses the question to what extent individual characteristics of victims (gender, age, occupation) and aspects of the Rwandan genocide (location of atrocities, point in time during the genocide) determined the perpetrators’ use of modern rather than traditional weapons to kill individual victims. An original database developed by the organization of the survivors of the genocide (IBUKA) is used. The data were collected from 1996 to 1999 and contain information on the deaths of 59,050 victims. Logistical regression analysis is performed to explain the use of either a traditional weapon or a firearm to kill the victims. The analysis shows that the probability of being killed with a firearm depended on the location where the victim was killed (more particularly, on whether or not the victim was killed in a large-scale massacre); on the commune of residence and the age of the victim; on the number of days after 6 April the victim was killed; and on interaction effects between the latter two variables and the gender of the victim. The importance of individual characteristics, location of atrocities and timing for the use of different kinds of weapons adds to our understanding of the organized nature of the Rwandan genocide.
The Power of Procedure and the Procedures of the Powerful: Anti-Terror Law in the United Nations
Authors: Stiles Kendall W.
Published: December 2005

This research attempts to answer the question: to what extent do institutional procedures matter in shaping international organization policies? Little empirical evidence has been applied to the question, in part because structural forces predominate in most theories and because it is difficult empirically to isolate the procedural variable. The UN’s response to the 11 September 2001 attacks, in the context of its treatment of the terrorism issue generally, allows us to compare and contrast the response of the Security Council and the General Assembly’s Sixth Committee. While the case makes it clear that structural forces have influenced the choice of procedures in both bodies over their histories, it is also clear that exogenous shocks and the search for creative policies by major powers can cause dramatic shifts in institutional procedures. In particular, the events of 11 September created a unique opening for the United States and other Western powers to attempt a radical revision of anti-terror law. This could be done most efficiently through the Security Council by use of procedural provisions that were either dormant or only recently revitalized. Efforts to cement a consensus in the GA Sixth Committee quickly ran aground against age-old questions of the definition and scope of terrorism against the backdrop of norms on occupation and self-determination. The research should rekindle interest in procedural issues and the problem of ‘forum shopping’.
Debate: Democracy for Peace, or Peace for Democracy? The Post-Communist Experience
Authors: Horowitz Shale
Published: December 2005

In the post-communist world, war appears to set back democracy. But pre-transition, prewar levels of democracy may predict both war and post-communist levels of democracy. After controlling for initial levels of democracy, it might emerge that war has no significant impact on later levels of democracy. These conjectures are supported if the years of regime change are used to measure pre-transition, prewar democracy. However, this measure is inappropriate, because war and other independent variables already had significant impacts on democracy in those years. When earlier years are used - which more appropriately measure pre-transition, prewar democracy - share of time at war is estimated to have a significant adverse impact on post-transition democracy. Moreover, pre-transition, prewar democracy is not a significant predictor of post-transition democracy, either directly, or through war, indirectly. In the post-communist sample, it is not surprising that prewar democracy has little capacity to predict war. Pre-transition levels of democracy were highly constrained by the authoritarian systems run from Moscow and Belgrade. In addition, the post-communist conflicts were inter-ethnic. In such conflicts, one would expect the institutional and normative constraints proposed by the democratic peace literature to be weaker.
Debate: War and Post-Communist Democratization: Dealing with Old Comrade Endogeneity
Authors: Däubler Thomas
Published: December 2005

Horowitz’s article claims to present strong empirical support for the argument that involvement in war negatively affects democracy. It is argued here that the results based upon regressions for countries of the post-communist area are flawed. As Horowitz denies the existence of a substantial reciprocal effect of democracy on war, he does not address the arising endogeneity problem at all. This results in an overestimation of the negative consequences of war on democracy. Building on the theories of democratic peace, democratization-related conflict and the outbreak of civil wars, it is asserted that countries which are ex ante less democratic in the transition period have a higher probability of war involvement. A reanalysis tackles the occurring endogeneity problem by using change in democracy as the dependent variable. The results provide evidence that the original models suffer from endogeneity bias. The effect of war on the difference in levels of democracy is not significant, and the model performs much worse in predicting the change in democracy rather than the level. One conclusion is that further research on the consequences of war on democracy has to deal both theoretically and methodologically with the reversed causality problem.
An Exploratory Study of Cultural Identity and Culture-Based Educational Programs for Urban American Indian Students
Authors: Powers Kristin M.
Published: December 2005

Extant survey data collected from 240 urban American Indian students were used to examine the impact of culture-based and universally accepted effective practices in education on American Indian educational outcomes. The results found that culture-based programs had a largely indirect effect, affecting students'educational outcomes via universal constructs, such as a safe and positive school climate, parent involvement in school, and instruction quality. Furthermore, individual students' cultural identification appears to moderate the effects of cultural programs. Cultural programming appeared to have greater influence on urban American Indian students who were most strongly identified with their American Indian culture.