A national cohort study of COVID-19 in-hospital mortality in South Africa: the intersection of communicable and non-communicable chronic diseases in a high HIV prevalence setting
Authors: JASSAT WAASILA , Cohen Cheryl , Tempia Stefano , Masha Maureen , Goldstein Susan , Kufa-Chakezha Tendesayi , Murangandi Pelagia , Savulescu Dana , Walaza Sibongile , Bam Jamy-Lee , Davies Mary-Ann , Prozesky Hans W , Naude Jonathan , Mnguni Trevor , Lawrence Charlene A , Mathema Hlengani , Zamparini Jarrod , Black John , Mehta Ruchika , Parker Arifa , Chikobvu Perpetual , Dawood Halima , Muvhango Ntshengedzeni , Strydom Riaan , Adelekan Tsholofelo , Mdlovu Bhekizizwe , Moodley Nirvasha , Nemavhandu Eunice L , Rheeder Paul , Venturas Jacqueline , Magula Nombulelo , Blumberg Lucille 
Published: December 2020

Background: The interaction between COVID-19, non-communicable diseases, and chronic infectious diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis (TB) are unclear, particularly in low- and middle-income countries in Africa. South Africa has a national adult HIV prevalence of 19% and TB prevalence of 0.7%. Using a nationally representative hospital surveillance system in South Africa, we investigated the factors associated with in-hospital mortality among individuals with COVID-19.

Methods: Using data from national active hospital surveillance, we describe the demographic characteristics, clinical features, and in-hospital mortality among hospitalised individuals testing positive for SARS-CoV-2, during 5 March 2020 to 27 March 2021. Chained equation multiple imputation was used to account for missing data and random effect multivariable logistic regression models were used to assess the role of HIV-status and underlying comorbidities on in-hospital COVID-19 mortality.

Findings: Among the 219,265 individuals admitted with laboratory confirmed SARS-Cov-2, 51,037 (23.3%) died. Most commonly observed comorbidities among individuals with available data were hypertension (61,098/163,350; 37.4%), diabetes (43,885/159,932; 27.4%), and HIV (13,793/151,779; 9.1%), while TB was reported in 3.6% (5,282/146,381) of individuals. While age was the most important predictor, other factors associated with in-hospital COVID-19 mortality were HIV infection [aOR 1.34, 95% CI: 1.27-1.43), past TB [aOR 1.26, 95% CI: 1.15-1.38), current TB [aOR 1.42, 95% CI: 1.22-1.64) and both past and current TB [aOR 1.48, 95% CI: 1.32-1.67) compared to never TB, as well as other described risk factors for COVID-19, such as male sex, non-white race, and chronic underlying hypertension, diabetes, chronic cardiac disease, chronic renal disease, and malignancy. After adjusting for other factors, PLWH not on ART [aOR 1.45, 95% CI: 1.22-1.72] were more likely to die in-hospital compared to PLWH on ART. Among PLWH, the prevalence of other comorbidities was 29.2% compared to 30.8% among HIV-uninfected individuals. Increasing number of comorbidities was associated with increased mortality risk in both PLWH and HIV-uninfected individuals.

Interpretation: Identified high risk individuals (older individuals and those with chronic comorbidities and PLWH, particularly those not on ART) would benefit from COVID-19 prevention programmes such as vaccine prioritisation, as well as early referral and treatment.

Funding: South African National Government