Demographic Dividend in Central Asia
Authors:   , Muyassar Kurbanova 
Published: October 2024

A short summary of Kurbanova Muyassar’s doctoral dissertation “DEMOGRAPHIC DIVIDEND IN CENTRAL ASIA” During the demographic transition, when the share of the working-age population increases, it presents an opportunity for economic gain, a phenomenon known as the "demographic dividend. This topic is particularly relevant for emerging countries, especially in Central Asia—Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The shifting demographics in this region offer temporary opportunities for economic growth. Therefore, it is crucial to understand which socio-economic and demographic factors contribute to or hinder economic growth and poverty reduction, particularly during this demographic window of opportunity. Despite the importance of this topic, the literature on Central Asian demography is limited, especially empirical studies. This thesis aims to fill this research gap by examining the effects of the demographic window of opportunity on economic growth, poverty, and inequality in Central Asia. Initially, we assess how changes in the demographic composition affect economic growth. This phase allowe us to identify the main drivers of economic growth by analyzing data from the five Central Asian states using a panel fixed-effects model with Driscoll-Kraay-corrected robust standard errors in a single panel estimation. Next, we analyze the impact of the demographic transition on poverty and inequality reduction in Central Asia. Although the economies of all countries in the region are growing, the fight against poverty has stagnated. The central question was whether this stagnation is due to the rising number of working-age individuals or if the region can leverage this demographic change to effectively reduce poverty. Additionally, we explored the challenges hindering efforts to alleviate poverty and inequality. The thesis consists of seven chapters: introduction, literature review, comparison of economic and human capital development levels, methodology, examination of the impact of demographic dividends on economic growth, analysis of the demographic dividend's effect on poverty and inequality, and conclusion. This research employs a comprehensive, multi-disciplinary methodology using data from international organizations. After providing a historical overview of Central Asian countries since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, we use econometric tools to analyze the situation in more detail. Utilizing a panel fixed-effects model with Driscoll-Kraay-corrected robust standard errors, the study seeks to provide a nuanced understanding of the intricate relationships between demographic dividends, economic growth, poverty reduction, and inequality. The thesis has yielded several novel scientific findings: • We have empirically demonstrated that the positive economic benefits resulting from changes in age structure are applicable to Central Asian countries. • We find that while economic and demographic variables are crucial in realizing the first demographic dividend, factors such as the level of democracy and corruption also significantly influence its effectiveness. • We identify the obstacles impeding the realization of demographic dividends and propose policy implications. • Our study introduces bribery as a crucial institutional factor in the Poverty-Growth-Inequality-Bribery quadrangle.