bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
An appraisal of methods for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data with MAR drop‐outs
Authors: O'Hara Hines R. J. , Hines W. G. S.
Published: October 2005

A number of methods for analysing longitudinal ordinal categorical data with missing‐at‐random drop‐outs are considered. Two are maximum‐likelihood methods (MAXLIK) which employ marginal global odds ratios to model associations. The remainder use weighted or unweighted generalized estimating equations (GEE). Two of the GEE use Cholesky‐decomposed standardized residuals to model the association structure, while another three extend methods developed for longitudinal binary data in which the association structures are modelled using either Gaussian estimation, multivariate normal estimating equations or conditional residuals. Simulated data sets were used to discover differences among the methods in terms of biases, variances and convergence rates when the association structure is misspecified. The methods were also applied to a real medical data set. Two of the GEE methods, referred to as Cond and ML‐norm in this paper and by their originators, were found to have relatively good convergence rates and mean squared errors for all sample sizes (80, 120, 300) considered, and one more, referred to as MGEE in this paper and by its originators, worked fairly well for all but the smallest sample size, 80. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Adaptation of multiple logistic regression to a multiple inverse sampling design: application to the Isfahan healthy heart program
Authors: Salehi M. Mohammad , Levy Paul S. , Jamalzadeh Mohammad A. , Chang K.‐C.
Published: October 2005

In observational and experimental studies in the health sciences involving human populations, it is sometimes considered desirable to recruit subjects according to designs that specify a predetermined number of subjects in each of several mutually exclusive classes (generally but not necessarily demographic in nature). This type of adaptive sampling design, now generally referred to as multiple inverse sampling (MIS), has received recent attention, and estimation methods are now available for several sequential MIS sampling designs. In this class of designs, subjects are sampled randomly and sequentially, usually one at a time, until all classes have the pre‐specified number of subjects. In this paper, we extend MIS for finite population sampling to estimation of the parameters in multiple logistic regression under MIS. Using estimated logistic regression parameters and cost components obtained from the Isfahan Healthy Heart Program (IHHP), we report findings from a simulation experiment in which it appears that, at fixed cost, MIS at the last stage of sampling compares favourably to simple random sampling. The IHHP is a large community intervention study for prevention of cardiovascular disease being conducted in Isfahan, Iran and two other cities in Iran. The IHHP identified subjects through a multistage sample survey in which MIS was used at the final stage of sampling. MIS is one of several methods of adaptive sampling that are generating considerable interest and show promise of being useful in a wide variety of applications. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Tutorial in biostatistics: the self‐controlled case series method
Authors: Whitaker Heather J. , Paddy Farrington C. , Spiessens Bart , Musonda Patrick
Published: October 2005

The self‐controlled case series method was developed to investigate associations between acute outcomes and transient exposures, using only data on cases, that is, on individuals who have experienced the outcome of interest. Inference is within individuals, and hence fixed covariates effects are implicitly controlled for within a proportional incidence framework. We describe the origins, assumptions, limitations, and uses of the method. The rationale for the model and the derivation of the likelihood are explained in detail using a worked example on vaccine safety. Code for fitting the model in the statistical package STATA is described. Two further vaccine safety data sets are used to illustrate a range of modelling issues and extensions of the basic model. Some brief pointers on the design of case series studies are provided. The data sets, STATA code, and further implementation details in SAS, GENSTAT and GLIM are available from an associated website. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Constructing intervals for the intracluster correlation coefficient using Bayesian modelling, and application in cluster randomized trials
Authors: Turner Rebecca M. , Omar Rumana Z. , Thompson Simon G.
Published: October 2005

Studies in health research are commonly carried out in clustered settings, where the individual response data are correlated within clusters. Estimation and modelling of the extent of between‐cluster variation contributes to understanding of the current study and to design of future studies. It is common to express between‐cluster variation as an intracluster correlation coefficient (ICC), since this measure is directly comparable across outcomes. ICCs are generally reported unaccompanied by confidence intervals. In this paper, we describe a Bayesian modelling approach to interval estimation of the ICC. The flexibility of this framework allows useful extensions which are not easily available in existing methods, for example assumptions other than Normality for continuous outcome data, adjustment for individual‐level covariates and simultaneous interval estimation of several ICCs. There is also the opportunity to incorporate prior beliefs on likely values of the ICC. The methods are exemplified using data from a cluster randomized trial. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The importance of varying the event generation process in simulation studies of statistical methods for recurrent events
Authors: Metcalfe Chris , Thompson Simon G.
Published: October 2005

Statistical methods for the analysis of recurrent events are often evaluated in simulation studies. A factor rarely varied in such studies is the underlying event generation process. If the relative performance of statistical methods differs across generation processes, then studies based upon one process may mislead. This paper describes the simulation of recurrent events data using four models of the generation process: Poisson, mixed Poisson, autoregressive, and Weibull. For each model four commonly used statistical methods for the analysis of recurrent events (Cox's proportional hazards method, the Andersen–Gill method, negative binomial regression, the Prentice–Williams–Peterson method) were applied to 200 simulated data sets, and the mean estimates, standard errors, and confidence intervals obtained. All methods performed well for the Poisson process. Otherwise, negative binomial regression only performed well for the mixed Poisson process, as did the Andersen–Gill method with a robust estimate of the standard error. The Prentice–Williams–Peterson method performed well only for the autoregressive and Weibull processes. So the relative performance of statistical methods depended upon the model of event generation used to simulate data. In conclusion, it is important that simulation studies of statistical methods for recurrent events include simulated data sets based upon a range of models for event generation. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Bivariate isotonic design for dose‐finding with ordered groups
Authors: Ivanova Anastasia , Wang Kai
Published: October 2005

We consider the problem of dose‐finding where subjects can be stratified into two populations with possibly different susceptibility to toxicity. The goal is to find the maximally tolerated dose for each population. We propose a non‐parametric design for this problem. Toxicity is estimated using the bivariate isotonic regression estimator. The new design is compared with the two‐sample continual reassessment method. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Model comparison of generalized linear mixed models
Authors: Song Xin‐Yuan , Lee Sik‐Yum
Published: October 2005

Generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) have been widely appreciated in biological and medical research. Maximum likelihood estimation has received a great deal of attention. Comparatively, not much has been done on model comparison or hypotheses testing. In this article, we propose a path sampling procedure to compute the observed‐data log‐likelihood function, so that the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) can be applied to model comparison or hypothesis testing. Advantages of the proposed path sampling procedure are discussed. Two medical data sets are analysed for providing illustrative examples of the proposed methodology. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
A comparison of propensity score methods: a case‐study estimating the effectiveness of post‐AMI statin use
Authors: Austin Peter C. , Mamdani Muhammad M.
Published: October 2005

There is an increasing interest in the use of propensity score methods to estimate causal effects in observational studies. However, recent systematic reviews have demonstrated that propensity score methods are inconsistently used and frequently poorly applied in the medical literature. In this study, we compared the following propensity score methods for estimating the reduction in all‐cause mortality due to statin therapy for patients hospitalized with acute myocardial infarction: propensity‐score matching, stratification using the propensity score, covariate adjustment using the propensity score, and weighting using the propensity score. We used propensity score methods to estimate both adjusted treated effects and the absolute and relative risk reduction in all‐cause mortality. We also examined the use of statistical hypothesis testing, standardized differences, box plots, non‐parametric density estimates, and quantile–quantile plots to assess residual confounding that remained after stratification or matching on the propensity score. Estimates of the absolute reduction in 3‐year mortality ranged from 2.1 to 4.5 per cent, while estimates of the relative risk reduction ranged from 13.3 to 17.0 per cent. Adjusted estimates of the reduction in the odds of 3‐year death varied from 15 to 24 per cent across the different propensity score methods. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Interval estimation of the mean response in a log‐regression model
Authors: Wu Jianrong , Wong A. C. M. , Wei Wei
Published: October 2005

A standard approach to the analysis of skewed response data with concomitant information is to use a log‐transformation to normalize the distribution of the response variable and then conduct a log‐ regression analysis. However, the mean response at original scale is often of interest. El‐Shaarawi and Viveros developed an interval estimation of the mean response of a log‐regression model based on large sample theory. There is however very little information available in the literature on constructing such estimates when the sample size is small. In this paper, we develop a small‐sample corrected interval by using the likelihood‐based inference method developed by Barndorff‐Nielson and Fraseret al. Simulation results show that the proposed interval provides almost exact coverage probability, even for small samples. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Analysis of incomplete longitudinal binary data using multiple imputation
Authors: Li Xiaoming , Mehrotra Devan V. , Barnard John
Published: October 2005

We propose a propensity score‐based multiple imputation (MI) method to tackle incomplete missing data resulting from drop‐outs and/or intermittent skipped visits in longitudinal clinical trials with binary responses. The estimation and inferential properties of the proposed method are contrasted via simulation with those of the commonly used complete‐case (CC) and generalized estimating equations (GEE) methods. Three key results are noted. First, if data are missing completely at random, MI can be notably more efficient than the CC and GEE methods. Second, with small samples, GEE often fails due to ‘convergence problems’, but MI is free of that problem. Finally, if the data are missing at random, while the CC and GEE methods yield results with moderate to large bias, MI generally yields results with negligible bias. A numerical example with real data is provided for illustration. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Type‐II CdSe/CdTe/ZnTe (Core–Shell–Shell) Quantum Dots with Cascade Band Edges: The Separation of Electron (at CdSe) and Hole (at ZnTe) by the CdTe Layer
Authors: Chen Chun‐Yen , Cheng Chiu‐Ting , Lai Chih‐Wei , Hu Ya‐Hui , Chou Pi‐Tai , Chou Yi‐Hsuan , Chiu Hsin‐Tien
Published: October 2005

The rational design and synthesis of CdSe/CdTe/ZnTe (core–shell–shell) type‐II quantum dots are reported. Their photophysical properties are investigated via the interband CdSe→ZnTe emission and its associated relaxation dynamics. In comparison to the strong CdSe (core only) emission (λmax≈550 nm, Φf≈0.28), a moderate CdSe→CdTe emission (λmax≈1026 nm, Φf≈1.2×10−3) and rather weak CdSe→ZnTe interband emission (λmax≈1415 nm, Φf≈1.1×10−5) are resolved for the CdSe/CdTe/ZnTe structure (3.4/1.8/1.3 nm). Capping CdSe/CdTe with ZnTe results in a distant electron–hole separation between CdSe (electron) and ZnTe (hole) via an intermediate CdTe layer. In the case of the CdSe/CdTe/ZnTe structure, a lifetime as long as 150 ns is observed for the CdSe→ZnTe (1415 nm) emission. This result further indicates an enormously long radiative lifetime of ≈10 ms. Upon excitation of the CdSe/CdTe/ZnTe structure, the long‐lived charge separation may further serve as an excellent hole carrier for catalyzing the redox oxidation reaction.
Effect of Various Processing Methods on the Physical Properties of Cooked Rice and on in vitro Starch Hydrolysis and Blood Glucose Response in Rats
Authors: Lee Seog‐Won , Lee Jun‐Hyung , Han Sung‐Hee , Lee Jin‐Won , Rhee Chul
Published: October 2005

The effects of various cooking methods on the physical and structural properties cooked rice, on the in vitro hydrolysis of the contained starch and on blood glucose response in rats were investigated. At optimum cooking state, a larger filamentous network was formed and most of the starch granules were fragmented, furthermore the samples heated by microwave and electric cooker showed a more compact structure compared to those treated in an autoclave or stone pot. The highest degree of gelatinization (DG) was observed in the sample treated in an autoclave (75.2%), followed by stone pot (71.1%), electric cooker (66.9%) and microwave oven (64.6%). The highest firmness (3.49 N) was observed in cooked rice heated by microwaves and no significant differences (p > 0.05) were found between the other samples. All cooked rice samples showed increased pasting temperatures and decreased peak viscosity compared to those of raw rice flour. The starch hydrolysis rates and their kinetic constants of cooked rice samples increased with increase in DG, and relatively higher values were observed in samples treated in the autoclave and stone pot. There was a significant difference in the blood glucose content depending on cooking methods, and the highest glucose level was observed in the sample heated by autoclaving.
The children's aid society community schools: A full‐service partnership model
Authors: Quinn Jane
Published: October 2005

Joint planning and committed leadership have led to a long‐term partnership between several New York City public schools and the Children's Aid Society, with positive results for children, families, and neighborhoods.
University‐assisted community school program of West Philadelphia: Democratic partnerships that make a difference
Authors: Harkavy Ira
Published: October 2005

Under the leadership of the University of Pennsylvania's Center for Community Partnerships, the university‐assisted community school model is showing positive results for children and youth in West Philadelphia.
Aligning systems to create full‐service schools: The Boston experience, so far
Authors: Bundy Andrew L.
Published: October 2005

How can a city, without a large infusion of new dollars, craft systemic strategies to increase the number, impact, and sustainability of its full‐service schools? A new approach in Boston shows signs of success.
California's healthy start: A solid platform for promoting youth development
Authors: Villarreal Lisa R.
Published: October 2005

Positive results from one of California's most successful education mandates—SB620 1991, or Healthy Start—are chronicled from around the state.
Building the community school movement: Vision, organization, and leadership
Authors: Blank Marty
Published: October 2005

Moving the community school agenda forward requires leadership with a clear vision, a focus on results, and the community capacity to bring schools to life and sustain them.
Validation of the WHO Quality of Life assessment instrument (WHOQOL-100) in a population of Dutch adult psychiatric outpatients
Authors: Masthoff Erik D. , Trompenaars Fons J. , Van Heck Guus L. , Hodiamont Paul P. , De Vries Jolanda
Published: October 2005

Background

Research concerning the psychometric properties of the WHO Quality of Life Assessment Instrument (WHOQOL-100) in general populations of psychiatric outpatients has not been performed systematically.

Aims

To examine the content validity, construct validity, and reliability of the WHOQOL-100 in a general population of Dutch adult psychiatric outpatients.

Method

A total of 533 psychiatric outpatients entered the study (438 randomly selected, 85 internally referred). Participants completed self-administered questionnaires for measuring quality of life (WHOQOL-100), psychopathological symptoms (SCL-90), and perceived social support (PSSS). In addition, they underwent two semi-structured interviews in order to obtain Axis-I and Axis-II diagnoses, according to DSM-IV.

Results

The drop-out percentage was low (7.1%). Of the 24 facets of the WHOQOL-100, 22 had a good distribution of scores, leaving out the facets physical environment and transport. Exploratory factor analysis revealed a four-factor structure, which was similar to earlier findings in patients with specific somatic diseases and depressive disorders. Various—a priori expected—positive and negative correlations were found between facets and domains of the WHOQOL-100, and dimensions of the SCL-90 and the PSSS-score, indicating good construct validity of the WHOQOL-100. The internal consistency of all facets and the four domains of the WHOQOL-100 was good (Cronbach’s alpha’s ranging from 0.62 to 0.93 and 0.64 to 0.84, respectively). Sparse and relatively low correlations were found between demographic characteristics (age and sex) and WHOQOL-100 scores.

Conclusions

Content validity, construct validity, and reliability of the WHOQOL-100 in a population of adult Dutch psychiatric outpatients are good. The WHOQOL-100 appears to be a suitable instrument for measuring quality of life in adult psychiatric outpatients.
Transgenic mice expressing mutant (N279K) human tau show mutation dependent cognitive deficits without neurofibrillary tangle formation
Authors: Taniguchi Taizo , Doe Nobutaka , Matsuyama Shogo , Kitamura Yoshihisa , Mori Hiroshi , Saito Naoaki , Tanaka Chikako
Published: October 2005

Mutations in the tau gene, which is located on chromosome 17, were found causative for autosomal dominantly inherited frontotemporal dementia and parkinsonism linked to chromosome 17 (FTDP‐17). To determine if cognitive deficits could be caused by tau mutations, two transgenic mouse lines were generated expressing a four‐repeat isoform of human tau or its mutant, containing one of the FTDP‐17 mutations (WILD mice and N279K mice). In open field test, N279K mice showed hyperactivity in locomotion and rearing. In prepulse inhibition test, N279K mice but not Wild mice showed significant deficits. Both transgenic mice, especially N279K mice, showed impairment in acquisition of spatial learning in Morris water maze. Although both N279K mice and Wild mice acquired passive avoidance as well as non‐transgenic mice, N279K mice but not Wild mice showed severe deficits in acquisition of active avoidance. Histological analysis of the present mutant mice did not show any signs of neurofibrillary tangle formations in the brain, and cognitive dysfunction seemed to precede such neuropathological changes or occur independently from them. The behavioral phenotype of N279K mice mimics features of human FTDP‐17 and provides a basic model for elucidating mechanisms underlying cognitive deficits in not only FTDP‐17, but also diverse tauopathies.
Is juvenile salmon abundance related to subsequent and preceding catches? Perspectives from a long-term monitoring programme
Authors: Niemelä E. , Erkinaro J. , Julkunen M. , Hassinen E.
Published: October 2005

The abundance of wild Atlantic salmon in the River Teno system has been monitored since the 1970s by estimating salmon catches and juvenile salmon densities at permanent electrofishing sites. Analysis of the time-series has shown significant relationships between juvenile densities (0+ and 1+) and subsequent 1SW and 2SW catches. Corresponding significant relationships have been detected between 1SW and 2SW female salmon in the catches and subsequent fry and parr densities. Monitoring juvenile densities allows evaluation of spawning escapement 1 and 2 years earlier, confirming the stock status information provided by catch statistics. These relationships between juvenile abundance and catches suggest that the monitoring programme has included feasible and biologically relevant variables and proper methodologies. Increasing trends were detected in the numbers of 1SW and 2SW salmon in catches between 1977 and 2003. Similarly, fry abundance indicated long-term increasing trends at most sites. Significant relationships were detected between abundances of subsequent sea-age groups in catches (1SW vs. 2SW 1 year later, etc.), indicating that strong smolt year classes influence the abundance of several subsequent sea-age groups, and that such relationships permit forecasting future catches of multi-sea-winter salmon by 1SW salmon catches.
Estimation of harp seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus) pup production in the North Atlantic completed: results from surveys in the Greenland Sea in 2002
Authors: Haug Tore , Stenson Garry B. , Corkeron Peter J. , Nilssen Kjell T.
Published: October 2005

From 14 March to 6 April 2002 aerial surveys were carried out in the Greenland Sea pack ice (referred to as the “West Ice”), to assess the pup production of the Greenland Sea population of harp seals, Pagophilus groenlandicus. One fixed-wing twin-engined aircraft was used for reconnaissance flights and photographic strip transect surveys of the whelping patches once they had been located and identified. A helicopter assisted in the reconnaissance flights, and was used subsequently to fly visual strip transect surveys over the whelping patches. The helicopter was also used to collect data for estimating the distribution of births over time. Three harp seal breeding patches (A, B, and C) were located and surveyed either visually or photographically. Results from the staging flights suggest that the majority of harp seal females in the Greenland Sea whelped between 16 and 21 March. The calculated temporal distribution of births were used to correct the estimates obtained for Patch B. No correction was considered necessary for Patch A. No staging was performed in Patch C; the estimate obtained for this patch may, therefore, be slightly negatively biased. The total estimate of pup production, including the visual survey of Patch A, both visual and photographic surveys of Patch B, and photographic survey of Patch C, was 98 500 (s.e. = 16 800), giving a coefficient of variation of 17.9% for the survey. Adding the obtained Greenland Sea pup production estimate to recent estimates obtained using similar methods in the Northwest Atlantic (in 1999) and in the Barents Sea/White Sea (in 2002), it appears that the entire North Atlantic harp seal pup production, as determined at the turn of the century, is at least 1.4 million animals per year.
Investigating the use of proxies for fecundity to improve management advice for western horse mackerel Trachurus trachurus
Authors: De Oliveira J.A.A. , Roel B.A. , Dickey-Collas M.
Published: October 2005

Observations of fecundity from the 2001 western horse mackerel spawning-stock biomass survey suggest that the species is an indeterminate spawner. Therefore, estimates of fecundity based on biological analyses and until recently used in the calibration of the stock assessment are now questioned. The stock is assessed by fitting a linked Separable and ADAPT VPA-based model to the catch-at-age data and to the egg production estimates. Currently, the assumption is that egg production and spawning-stock biomass are linked by a constant but unknown fecundity parameter, estimated within the model. In this study, the effects of introducing relationships linking biological indicators of fecundity, such as lipid content or feeding intensity during the spawning season, to actual fecundity are examined within a simulation framework. Simulations suggest that when the underlying relationships between fecundity and the proxy are poorly described, weak, or based on a relatively short time-series of data, the assumption of constant fecundity will result in better management advice than using the proxy.
Paleoclimate Changes during the last 100,000 yr from a Record in the Brazilian Atlantic Rainforest region and Interhemispheric Comparison
Authors: Ledru M.-P. , Rousseau D.-D. , Cruz F.W. , Riccomini C. , Karmann I. , Martin L.
Published: October 2005

A long terrestrial record, Colônia CO-3, from the Atlantic rainforest region in Brazil (23°52′S, 46°42′20 ʺW, 900 m a.s.l.) registrates variations in the forest expansion during the last 100,000 yr. The 780-cm depth core was analyzed at 2-cm intervals and arboreal pollen frequencies were compared to nearby speleothem stable isotope records and neighboring marine records from the tropical Atlantic. To evaluate regional versus global climate forcing, our record was compared with Greenland and Antarctic ice-core records. These comparisons suggest that changes in temperature seen in polar latitudes relate to moisture changes: e.g., to changes in the length of the dry season, in tropical and subtropical latitudes during glacial as well as interglacial times. These climatic changes result from changes in the frequency of polar air incursions to these latitudes inducing a permanent cloud cover and precipitation. This is an important result that should help define paleoclimatic features in the Southern Hemisphere for the last glaciation.
PHYSICAL STATURE AND INTELLIGENCE AS PREDICTORS OF THE TIMING OF BABY BOOMERS’ VERY FIRST DATES
Authors: SUNDER MARCO
Published: October 2005

The paper analyses to what extent the timing of the very first date of American adolescents in the 1960s correlated with their physical stature and cognitive ability. Using an event history approach, it was found that intelligence and a weight slightly above the average raised the odds of arranging a first rendezvous, whereas the effect of height was gender-specific. Tallness improved chances among boys, whereas girls whose height was slightly below the average had the highest odds. This pattern was mirrored by the adolescents’ evaluation of their own physical stature. The fact that the estimated associations are remarkably similar to those observed in the literature on fertility and wages suggests that these attributes are selection criteria in situations of social interaction already among adolescents.
Grit selection in waterfowl and how it determines exposure to ingested lead shot in Mediterranean wetlands
Authors: FIGUEROLA JORDI , MATEO RAFAEL , GREEN ANDY J. , MONDAIN-MONVAL JEAN-YVES , LEFRANC HUGHES , MENTABERRE GREGORIO
Published: October 2005

Waterfowl ingest lead shot because they confuse it with grit, but there has been limited study of differences among species and locations. The spatial and interspecific variation in the quantity and size composition of ingested grit and in the ingestion of lead shot by eight waterfowl species in the three main wintering areas in the western Mediterranean (Doñana, Ebro Delta and Camargue) was investigated. Variation in the mass of grit in the gizzard was related to bird species, whereas size composition of ingested grit was more closely related to locality and less to species. Birds with a large proportion of vegetation in their diets had more grit in the gizzard. Grit size composition was related to prevalence of lead shot ingestion. Thus, the quantity of grit in the gizzard is an attribute of species, and grit size composition (which largely determines the risk of ingestion of lead shot) is more affected by local conditions. This conclusion is supported by a meta-analysis of previous studies of the incidence of lead shot ingestion in 51 locations and 27 waterfowl species in North America and Europe. The prevalence of lead shot ingestion in a given waterbird species was highly variable between localities, and was not consistently different between dabbling, grazing and diving species.
The Baring Crisis and the Brazilian Encilhamento, 1889–1891: An Early Example of Contagion Among Emerging Capital Markets
Authors: TRINER GAIL D. , WANDSCHNEIDER KIRSTEN
Published: October 2005

This article assesses the role of international markets in the brazilian financial crisis of 1890/91 (the crash of the encilhamento). It looks for the impact of the argentine financial crisis in 1890 (the baring crisis) on brazilian access to capital markets. The history of bond yield fluctuations in london for brazilian and argentine debt, exchange rates, data on investment flows and archival and journalistic accounts reveal a close congruence between the argentine and brazilian crises. The effects of the argentine experience carried over to brazil because the open capital and money markets of the period easily transmitted crisis from one economy to another and because fundamental conditions in both economies rendered them similarly vulnerable to fluctuations in capital flows. The article raises this case as a precedent for the contagious financial crises that emerging markets faced at the end of the twentieth century.
Ever Bigger Firms?
Authors: MEEKS G. , MEEKS J. G.
Published: October 2005

When the grandfather of modern economics, Adam Smith, was preparing his Wealth of Nations almost a quarter of a millennium ago, the workforce of businesses would typically be counted in single or double figures. Now the world's biggest firms, such as Wal-Mart, have a payroll of well over a million, bigger than the population of some entire nations. This paper reviews some of the reasons for this growth, and considers whether it might continue forever. Powerful evidence exists of potential scale economies, in business functions from R&D to finance, and industries from pin production to pharmaceuticals. And these do indeed translate into remarkable performance records for some industrial giants. But surprisingly, on average, bigger firms do not enjoy above average profitability and, on the whole, giant firms are not gaining on the world economy. This paper reviews some of the market and managerial constraints on size, and considers innovative efforts – ranging from the New Zealand dairy industry to the McDonald's chain – to reconcile global-level scale economies in some functions with local autonomy in others. In passing, the paper notes a disturbing array of incentives tempting some managers to expand their empire, even when that is not in the shareholders' interest.
Europe's Deep Crisis
Authors: CERUTTI FURIO
Published: October 2005

The rejection of the symbolically rather than institutionally innovative Constitutional Treaty in France and the Netherlands as well as the show of disunity in the European Council of mid June 2005 signal the end of a long cycle, culminating in the 1990s, in which the transformation of the European Union into a full-fledged political actor seemed to be possible. For decades ahead there will be no European polity capable of powerfully co-determining the governance of globalization. This was made possible by the rarely debated democratic deficit that makes one people or government decide on issues of general European interest and uncritically glorifies direct democracy, thus opening the door to populism.

The comedy of errors which saw a majority of French citizens voting for domestic motivations, instead of focusing on the actual European issues go back to underlying troubles in contemporary democracy, but also to the contradiction inherent to the attempt to give the functional-bureaucratic EU of ‘Brussels’ a broad democratic legitimization. Rather than the now dead Constitution, it is the experience of the Europeans with common high-political acts of economic and security policy that may in the future foster their political identity in the framework of cultural diversity.
Foucault and the Welfare State
Authors: BEREND IVAN T.
Published: October 2005

Michel Foucault's Madness and Civilization (1961) offers a comparison between two types of answers to the same social problems: unemployment, poverty and crime. In the earlier centuries exclusion was the answer. The French Hopital General (1656) replaced it by containment. The institution was a combination of a hospital and jail and offered a solution by isolating insane, unemployed and criminal people at the expense of the society. The 20th century welfare state has a different answer to the same questions. This is, however, challenged by financial limitations. Foucault offers a solution by combining social security and individual autonomy, which was not considered to be important before.
‘A passion can only be overcome by a stronger passion’: Philosophical Anthropology before and after Ernst Cassirer
Authors: KROIS JOHN MICHAEL
Published: October 2005

‘Philosophical anthropology’ was initiated in the late 1920s as an alternative to abstract philosophical definitions of human nature (‘animal rationale’) and to the exclusively empirical, physical study of anthropology. Philosophical anthropology focused upon what it meant to be a human being. Its founders concentrated upon the situated existence of human beings and their ability to think beyond and to deny even what was actually vitally important to them. For Cassirer, these efforts remained too abstract because they failed to take the breadth of human cultural activity into account. The decisive feature of human life is neither reason nor language. These are derivative from symbolism, not the other way around. Human beings are best described as ‘animal symbolicum’. The error of earlier anthropological conceptions was not that they venerated reason, but that they ignored the body and so separated reason from emotion. The concept of symbolism, as Cassirer conceived it, overcame this dualism. His philosophical anthropology has been vindicated today in many areas of empirical research, but replacing the concept of ‘reason’ with that of ‘symbolism’ was no minor revision to the Western philosophical tradition, and the amplification and application of this new outlook has barely begun.
Tobacco
Authors: BURGEN ARNOLD
Published: October 2005

Tobacco use was well established among the inhabitants of the Americas when Columbus made his epic voyage. They smoked it in pipes and as cigars and also used it as snuff; it played an important role in social and religious practices. By 1550 pipe smoking was well established in Europe, to be largely supplanted by snuff in the 18th century and by cigarettes in the latter part of the 19th century. It was only proven in the 1950s that smoking was the major cause of lung cancer, which in turn, was responsible for an increasing proportion of deaths. Efforts to reduce smoking have had a limited success so far, but the overall incidence of lung cancer in the UK is now falling. Patterns across Europe are generally similar.
The Darker Side of Museum Art: Acquisition and Restitution of Cultural Objects with a Dubious Provenance
Authors: KUITENBROUWER FRANK
Published: October 2005

Museums face what has been called an ethical crisis of illegitimate acquisitions and reluctant restitution. Some claims go far back (like the Elgin Marbles), others are of more recent origin, like those concerning so-called Holocaust Art. Claims often are not purely legal in nature but also have a moral aspect. The government of The Netherlands has chosen, for a policy-oriented approach to deal with claims from the Second World War, a third way of conflict resolution.
Integrating the Past: Transformation and Renovation of the Royal Museum for Central Africa, Tervuren, Belgium
Authors: GRYSEELS GUIDO , LANDRY GABRIELLE , CLAESSENS KOEKI
Published: October 2005

The Royal Museum for Central Africa (RMCA) in Tervuren is often referred to as one of the last colonial museums in the world. This article provides an overview of the various steps taken in the fundamental transformation process and the plan for renovation of the museum with a view to making it a modern and dynamic Africa museum. For this institution, which is simultaneously a Museum, Research Institute, and Centre of Information Dissemination, a mere change of décor is not sufficient: a fundamental shift in vision, a series of risks, and especially a move towards dialogue and transparency have been part of the process, which has implications that extend far beyond the walls of the museum.
Eine Normierung unterschiedlicher Aspekte der evaluativen Bewertung von 92 Substantiven
Authors: Klauer Karl Christoph , Musch Jochen
Published: October 2005

Zusammenfassung: Die evaluative Komponente von Einstellungen ist in vielen sozialpsychologischen Forschungsfeldern von Bedeutung. Um für zukünftige Untersuchungen in diesem Bereich eine normierte Skalierung unterschiedlicher Aspekte der evaluativen Bewertung von Einstellungsobjekten bereitzustellen, wurde 72 Probanden die deutsche Übersetzung einer in der Einstellungsforschung bereits häufig verwendeten und standardisierten Menge von 92 Substantiven zur Beurteilung vorgelegt. Erhoben wurde neben der Wortlänge und der Worthäufigkeit die evaluative Bewertung auf einer bipolaren Skala, getrennte Ratings der Positivität und der Negativität auf unipolaren Skalen, zwei Indizes der Ambivalenz, der Prozentsatz von «positiv»-Antworten bei einer binären evaluativen Entscheidung sowie die mittlere Reaktionszeit bei der evaluativen Entscheidung. Die vollständigen Ergebnisse der Normierung werden in einem Anhang wiedergegeben.
Soziale Normen als Prädiktoren von umweltbezogenem Verhalten
Authors: Steinheider Brigitte , Fay Doris , Hilburger Tanja , Hust Isabell , Prinz Lilli , Vogelgesang Frank , Hormuth Stefan E.
Published: October 2005

Zusammenfassung: In zwei Untersuchungen in Gießen (N = 68) und Dresden (N = 74) bei Mitarbeitern mittelständischer industrieller Betriebe wurde in unterschiedlichen sozialen Kontexten untersucht, welche Prädiktoren umweltbezogenes Verhalten bestimmen. Mittels Fragebogen wurden dazu in Anlehnung an die Theorie des überlegten Handelns umweltbewußte Einstellungen in den Lebensbereichen «Arbeit» und «Familie», die soziale Identität, die umweltbezogenen sozialen Normen und das Umweltverhalten erfaßt. Dabei wurden Einstellungen und soziale Norm sowohl auf globaler als auch auf spezifischer Ebene erhoben. Das umweltbewußte Verhalten bezog sich auf die Problemfelder Abfallvermeidung und -trennung, umweltbezogenes Engagement, Ressourcenschonung und Giftstoffe. In multiplen Regressionsanalysen war in beiden Untersuchungen und in beiden Lebensbereichen ein signifikanter Einfluß der sozialen Normen auf das selbstberichtete Verhalten nachweisbar, wobei das Verhalten eher durch die spezifischen als durch die globalen Normen vorhergesagt werden konnte. Die Wirksamkeit dieser Normen wird nicht durch die Identifikation mit der Bezugsgruppe moderiert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß umweltbezogene Einstellungen, Verhalten und Normen in zwei Bereichen durchaus differieren können. Soziale Normen sind verhaltenswirksamer als Einstellungen, so daß Verhaltensänderungen weniger auf individueller als auf sozialer Ebene ansetzen sollten.
Umweltschonendes Verhalten - eine Frage der Moral oder der richtigen Anreize?* * Die vorliegende Arbeit entstand im Rahmen des SPP der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft «Globale Umweltveränderungen: sozial- und verhaltenswissenschaftliche Dimension»; Teilprojekt «Verkehrsmittelwahl» (Az. Schm 658/6-2). Ich danke Herrn Kirchler sowie den beiden anonymen Reviewern/innen für ihre wertvollen Hinweise.
Authors: Bamberg Sebastian
Published: October 2005

Zusammenfassung: Ist es angemessener, die Ausführung ökologisch relevanter Verhaltensweisen als «moralisches» oder als «nutzenmaximierendes» Verhalten zu konzpieren? Zur Beantwortung dieser Frage wird die Erklärungskraft der «Norm-Aktivierungs-Theorie» von Schwartz mit der der «Theorie des geplanten Verhaltens» (TPB) von Ajzen im Kontext der Verhaltensweise «PKW-Nutzung Studierender» verglichen. In der vorliegenden Untersuchung (N = 303) erklärt die Persönliche Norm («Moral») allein 19 % der später gemessenen PKW-Nutzung. Bei Kontrolle der TPB-Konstrukte «Einstellung», «soziale Norm» und «Verhaltenskontrolle» hat die Persönliche Norm jedoch keinerlei signifikante Effekte mehr auf Intention bzw. Verhalten. Die TPB-Konstrukte erklären 78 % der Intentions- und 52 % der Verhaltensvarianz. Es zeigt sich jedoch ein subgruppenspezifischer Effekt der «Moral»: Bei Studierenden, für die der Wert «Schutz der Umwelt» eine große Bedeutung hat und die einen eigenen PKW besitzen, übt die Persönliche Norm einen signifikanten negativen Effekt auf die Intention aus, den PKW zu nutzen.
Prozeßanalyse von Gruppenentscheidungen zu Aspekten ökologischer Stadtplanung
Authors: Crott Helmut W. , Grotzer Thomas , Hansmann Ralf , Mieg Harald A. , Scholz Roland W.
Published: October 2005

Zusammenfassung: Die Studie untersucht auf der Grundlage eines stochastischen Modells (Probabilistic Model of Opinion Change Including Distances; PCD-Modell) den Prozeß der Meinungsänderungen in Gruppendiskussionen. 90 Studenten/innen der Umweltnaturwissenschaften hatten die Aufgabe, im Rahmen einer Fallstudie zur Neugestaltung eines Stadtteils von Zürich Einflußbeziehungen zwischen relevanten Situationsmerkmalen einzuschätzen. Im Laufe der Diskussion stieg die Höhe der Einschätzungen an und ihre Varianz innerhalb der Gruppen nahm ab. Zur Analyse des Meinungsbildungsprozesses wurden 16 Varianten eines PCD-Grundmodells getestet. Von den beiden postulierten, prozeßbestimmenden Faktoren Größe der für eine Alternative votierenden Untergruppe und durchschnittliche Attraktivität der Alternativen erwies sich die Untergruppengröße als der bedeutsamere. Darüber hinaus führte die Berücksichtigung der Distanzen zwischen den Alternativen zu einer deutlichen Verbesserung der Beschreibung des Prozesses, da die Meinungsänderungen in schrittweiser Annäherung an alternative Standpunkte erfolgten.
Prognose der Studierfähigkeit
Authors: Gold Andreas , Souvignier Elmar
Published: October 2005

Zusammenfassung. Anhand einer prospektiv angelegten Längsschnittstudie wird für Absolvent(inn)en in den vier Studienfachgruppen Medizin, Jura, Ingenieur- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften (N = 395) eine Prognose der Examensleistung durch die Abiturnote, gewichtete Einzelnoten sowie durch Wissens- und Interessentests vorgenommen. Zudem wird geprüft, ob sich erfolgreich Studierende in Bezug auf diese Studieneingangsmerkmale von Studienabbrechern unterscheiden. Für Studierende der Medizin und der Rechtswissenschaft erweist sich die Abiturdurchschnittsnote als valider Prädiktor des Studienerfolgs. Einzelnoten und Testverfahren tragen nicht zusätzlich zur Vorhersage bei. Bester Prädiktor für den Studienerfolg ist allerdings die Note der Zwischenprüfung. Ein Vergleich zwischen den Studiengängen weist auf Effekte kenntnis- und interessengeleiteter Selbstselektion bei den Studienanfängern hin. Für die Auswahl zum Studium wird daher ein gestuftes Verfahren aus Information, Beratung und Bewährung auf Grund früher Studienleistungen vorgeschlagen.
A measurement/model comparison of ozone photochemical loss in the Antarctic ozone hole using Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement observations and the Match technique
Authors: Hoppel Karl , Bevilacqua Richard , Canty Timothy , Salawitch Ross , Santee Michelle
Published: October 2005

The Polar Ozone and Aerosol Measurement (POAM III) instrument has provided 6 years (1998 to present) of Antarctic ozone profile measurements, which detail the annual formation of the ozone hole. During the period of ozone hole formation the measurement latitude follows the edge of the polar night and presents a unique challenge for comparing with model simulations. The formation of the ozone hole has been simulated by using a photochemical box model with an ensemble of trajectories, and the results were sampled at the measurement latitude for comparison with the measured ozone. The agreement is generally good but very sensitive to the model dynamics and less sensitive to changes in the model chemistry. In order to better isolate the chemical ozone loss the Match technique was applied to 5 years of data to directly calculate ozone photochemical loss rates. The measured loss rates are specific to the high solar zenith angle conditions of the POAM‐Match trajectories and are found to increase slowly from July to early August and then increase rapidly until mid‐September. The Match results are sensitive to the choice of meteorological analysis used for the trajectory calculations. The ECMWF trajectories yield the smallest, and perhaps most accurate, peak loss rates that can be reproduced by a photochemical model using standard JPL 2002 kinetics, assuming reactive bromine (BrOx) of 14 pptv based solely on contributions from CH3Br and halons, and without requiring ClOx to exceed the upper limit for available inorganic chlorine of 3.7 ppbv. Larger Match ozone loss rates are found for the late August and early September period if trajectories based on UKMO and NCEP analyses are employed. Such loss rates require higher values for ClO and/or BrO than can be simulated using JPL 2002 chemical kinetics and complete activation of chlorine. In these cases, the agreement between modeled and measured loss rates is significantly improved if the model employs larger ClOOCl cross sections (e.g., Burkholder et al., 1990) and BrOx of 24 ppt which reflects significant contributions from very short‐lived bromocarbons to the inorganic bromine budget.
Satellite‐based retrieval of ice cloud properties using a semianalytical algorithm
Authors: Kokhanovsky A. A. , Nauss T.
Published: October 2005

A semianalytical algorithm for the retrieval of ice cloud properties from satellite data is presented. The new method is based on the semianalytical cloud retrieval algorithm and uses solutions of the asymptotic radiative transfer theory applicable for optically thick media. Therefore the new method is much less computer time expensive than the commonly used lookup table approaches. Usually, the cloud optical thickness and cloud effective droplet radius are reported for water and ice clouds even though both parameters are dependent on the actual crystal shape assumed in the retrieval procedures. Thus the authors propose to use the reduced optical thickness (ROT) and the particle absorption length (PAL) for the characterization of ice clouds. This implies that no a priori or climatological estimates of the particle shape/size distribution are necessary and increases the comparability of different cloud retrieval algorithms, which are built on many different distribution functions. If still necessary, the retrieved ROT and PAL can easily be transferred to values of the optical thickness and the cloud effective droplet radius by assuming any of those size distribution functions. The developed technique has been applied to data from the NASA EOS Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer sensor. The scene shows Hurricane Jeanne just before its landfall near the coast of Florida in September 2004. Both the reduced cloud optical thickness and the particle absorption length have been derived for the eye wall region.