Linking global terrestrial and ocean biogeochemistry with process-based, coupled freshwater algae–nutrient–solid dynamics in LM3-FANSY v1.0
Authors: Lee Minjin , Stock Charles A. , Dunne John P. , Shevliakova Elena 
Published: July 2024

Abstract. Estimating global river solids, nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P), in both quantity and composition, is necessary for understanding the development and persistence of many harmful algal blooms, hypoxic events, and other water quality issues in inland and coastal waters. This requires a comprehensive freshwater model that can resolve intertwined algae, solid, and nutrient dynamics, yet previous global watershed models have limited mechanistic resolution of instream biogeochemical processes. Here we develop the global, spatially explicit, and process-based Freshwater Algae, Nutrient, and Solid cycling and Yields (FANSY) model and incorporate it within the Land Model (LM3). The resulting model, LM3-FANSY v1.0, is intended as a baseline for eventual linking of global terrestrial and ocean biogeochemistry in next-generation Earth system models to project global changes that may challenge empirical approaches. LM3-FANSY explicitly resolves interactions between algae, N, P, and solid dynamics in rivers and lakes at 1° spatial and 30 min temporal resolution. Simulated suspended solids (SS), N, and P in multiple forms (particulate or dissolved, organic or inorganic) agree well with measurement-based yield (kg km−2 yr−1), load (kt yr−1), and concentration (mg L−1) estimates across a globally distributed set of large rivers, with an accuracy comparable to other global nutrient and SS models. Furthermore, simulated global river loads of SS, N, and P in different forms to the coastal ocean are consistent with published ranges, though regional biases are apparent. River N loads are estimated to contain approximately equal contributions by dissolved inorganic N (41 %) and dissolved organic N (39 %), with a lesser contribution by particulate organic N (20 %). For river P load estimates, particulate P, which includes both organic and sorbed inorganic forms, is the most abundant form (64 %), followed by dissolved inorganic and organic P (25 % and 11 %). Time series analysis of river solid and nutrient loads in large US rivers for the period ∼ 1963–2000 demonstrates that simulated SS and N loads in different N forms covary with variations of measurement-based loads. LM3-FANSY, however, has less capability to capture interannual variability of P loads, likely due to the lack of terrestrial P dynamics in LM3. Analyses of the model results and sensitivity to components, parameters, and inputs suggest that fluxes from terrestrial litter and soils, wastewater, and weathering are the most critical inputs to the fidelity of simulated river nutrient loads for observation-based estimates. Sensitivity analyses further demonstrate a critical role of algal dynamics in controlling the ratios of inorganic and organic nutrient forms in freshwaters. While the simulations are able to capture significant cross-watershed contrasts at a global scale, disagreement for individual rivers can be substantial. This limitation is shared by other global river models and could be ameliorated through further refinements in nutrient sources, freshwater model dynamics, and observations. Current targets for future LM3-FANSY development include the additions of terrestrial P dynamics, freshwater carbon, alkalinity, enhanced sediment dynamics, and anthropogenic hydraulic controls.