Association Between Climatic Factors and Varicella Incidence in Wuxi, East China, 2010-2019: Surveillance Study (Preprint)
Authors: Zhang Kehong , Shen Ganglei , Yuan Yue , Shi Chao 
Published: October 2024

BACKGROUND

Varicella is a common infectious disease and a growing public health concern in China, with increasing outbreaks in Wuxi. Analyzing the correlation between climate factors and varicella incidence in Wuxi is crucial for guiding public health prevention efforts.

OBJECTIVE

This study examines the impact of meteorological variables on varicella incidence in Wuxi, eastern China, from 2010 to 2019, offering insights for public health interventions.

METHODS

We collected daily meteorological data and varicella case records from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019, in Wuxi, China. Generalized cross-validation identified optimal lag days by selecting those with the lowest score. The relationship between meteorological factors and varicella incidence was analyzed using Poisson generalized additive models and segmented linear regression. Subgroup analyses were conducted by gender and age.

RESULTS

The study encompassed 64,086 varicella cases. Varicella incidence in Wuxi city displayed a bimodal annual pattern, with peak occurrences from November to January of the following year and lower peaks from May to June. Several meteorological factors influencing varicella risk were identified. A decrease of 1°C when temperatures were ≤20°C corresponded to a 1.99% increase in varicella risk (95% CI 1.57-2.42, <i>P</i>&lt;.001). Additionally, a decrease of 1°C below 22.38°C in ground temperature was associated with a 1.36% increase in varicella risk (95% CI 0.96-1.75, <i>P</i>&lt;.001). Each 1 mm increase in precipitation above 4.88 mm was associated with a 1.62% increase in varicella incidence (95% CI 0.93-2.30, <i>P</i>&lt;.001). A 1% rise in relative humidity above 57.18% increased varicella risk by 2.05% (95% CI 1.26-2.84, <i>P</i>&lt;.001). An increase in air pressure of 1 hPa below 1011.277 hPa was associated with a 1.75% rise in varicella risk (95% CI 0.75-2.77, <i>P</i>&lt;.001). As wind speed and evaporation increased, varicella risk decreased linearly with a 16-day lag. Varicella risk was higher with sunshine durations exceeding 1.825 hours, with a 14-day lag, increasing by 1.30% for each additional hour of sunshine (95% CI 0.62-2.00, <i>P</i>=.006). Subgroup analyses revealed that teenagers and children under 17 years of age faced higher varicella risks associated with temperature, average ground temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and air pressure. Adults aged 18-64 years experienced increased risk with longer sunshine durations. Additionally, males showed higher varicella risks related to ground temperature and air pressure compared with females. However, no significant gender differences were observed regarding varicella risks associated with temperature (male: <i>P</i>&lt;.001; female <i>P</i>&lt;.001), precipitation (male: <i>P</i>=.001; female: <i>P</i>=.06), and sunshine duration (male: <i>P</i>=.53; female: <i>P</i>=.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Our preliminary findings highlight the interplay between varicella outbreaks in Wuxi city and meteorological factors. These insights provide valuable support for developing policies aimed at reducing varicella risks through informed public health measures.