Multimodal fully automated predictive model for therapeutic efficacy of first-line cancer immunotherapy based on clinical information and imaging modalities including brain MRI and chest CT images in advanced non-small cell lung cancer.
Authors: Miyawaki Taichi , Shukuya Takehito , Suzuki Kazuhiro , Xu Shiting , Nakamura Yusuke , Katayama Isana , Shirai Yukina , Matsuda Hironari , Fujioka Masahiro , Miyashita Yosuke , Koinuma Yoshika , Asao Tetsuhiko , Kanemaru Ryota , Shimamura Shoko , Mitsuishi Yoichiro , Shibayama Rina , Tajima Ken , Shimada Naoko , Otsuka Yujiro , Takahashi Kazuhisa 
Published: June 2024

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Background: The integration of imaging and clinical data through artificial intelligence (AI) holds promise for more accurately predicting the therapeutic efficacy of immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI) ± platinum-based chemotherapy in individual patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). However, tumor segmentation still relies entirely on radiologist evaluation and has not yet achieved fully automated tumor evaluation for image analysis. Furthermore, while central nervous system (CNS) metastasis is a critical prognostic factor in patients with advanced NSCLC, radiomics has primarily focused on chest imaging, with few studies incorporating brain MRI analysis. Methods: This study included patients with advanced NSCLC treated with ICI ± platinum-based chemotherapy as first-line therapy from March 2017 to August 2023. We developed an ensemble model combining a logistic regression model that analyzes clinical information with a deep learning model that extracts image features. Each sub-model was independent, allowing for individual adjustments and the ability to be attached or detached. Both models were trained to predict response, 12-month progression-free survival (PFS), and 12-month overall survival (OS) using cross-entropy loss. The dataset was randomly divided into training, validation, and test sets in a 5:3:2 ratio. This random assignment was repeated four times, and the average area under the curve (AUC) was calculated. The test sets were further classified into high- and low-risk groups based on the predicted results, and log-rank tests were performed on their survival curves. Results: The study included 232 patients, with 89 (38%) receiving ICI alone and 143 (62%) receiving ICI + platinum-based chemotherapy. In the entire population, the overall response rate (ORR) for ICI ± platinum-based chemotherapy was 49.5%, with a median PFS of 7.1 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 5.8-9.1) and a median OS of 24.5 months (95% CI: 21.2-30.3). The model achieved an AUC of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.65- 0.76) for predicting response, 0.65 (95% CI: 0.59-0.71) for 12-month PFS, and 0.69 (95% CI: 0.48-0.90) for 12-month OS. Test sets were classified into high-risk (N = 55) and low-risk (N = 60) groups. The median PFS was 6.8 months in the high-risk group and 14.7 months in the low-risk group (p < 0.05). The median OS was 21.5 months in the high-risk group and 34.3 months in the low-risk group (p < 0.05). Conclusions: We have demonstrated that a multimodal, fully automated ensemble model has significant predictive accuracy for the efficacy and survival outcomes of ICI ± platinum-based chemotherapy in patients with advanced NSCLC.