bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Yield of Short-Term Follow-up CT/MR Angiography for Small Aneurysms Detected at Screening
Authors: Wermer Marieke J.H. , van der Schaaf Irene C. , Velthuis Birgitta K. , Majoie Charles B. , Albrecht Kees W. , Rinkel Gabriel J.E.
Published: December 2005

Background and Purpose—

Patients with a history of subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) or familial intracranial aneurysms (FIA) are at increased risk for aneurysm formation and rupture. Small aneurysms detected at screening may be left untreated and followed over time. The yield of follow-up CT/MR angiography (CTA/MRA) 1 or 2 years after detection to evaluate growth of these aneurysms is unknown.

Methods—

We prospectively followed patients with small aneurysms detected at screening at a 1-year interval using CTA or MRA. We assessed size, site, and number of the aneurysms and risk factors such as smoking, alcohol use, and hypertension. We evaluated the short-term growth and rupture rate and possible risk factors for growth and rupture.

Results—

Ninety-three patients (67 with a history of SAH, 16 with FIA, and 10 with a history of both SAH and FIA) with 125 aneurysms underwent CTA/MRA follow-up. Sixty-five patients were followed up once, and 28 patients were followed up twice (median follow-up time, 1.3 years). In 3 of the 93 patients (3.2%), an aneurysm enlarged slightly (0.5 to 1.5 mm). Two patients (2.2%) had a SAH: 1 from an aneurysm at the clip-site from a previous operation that ruptured without enlargement and the other from a newly developed dissecting aneurysm. The only statistically significant risk factor for growth and rupture was a history of both SAH and FIA (relative risk, 10.1; 95% CI, 1.3 to 81.9).

Conclusions—

The yield of early follow-up of small aneurysms in patients with a history of SAH or FIA is small and does not eliminate the risk of rupture. Whether follow-up at intervals >1 year is useful requires further study.
Prevention of Carotid Artery Restenosis After Sirolimus-Coated Stent Implantation in Pigs
Authors: Tepe Gunnar , Muschick Peter , Laule Michael , Reddig Frank , Claussen Claus D. , Dinkelborg Ludger M. , Tielemans Hans , Wehrmann Manfred , Duda Stephan H.
Published: December 2005

Background and Purpose—

To test the feasibility of self-expanding drug-coated nitinol stents for prevention of restenosis in an animal model. Stent implantation in the carotid artery (CA) has been shown to be feasible for treatment of CA stenosis. Even though the restenosis rate in CA is reported to be lower than in the coronary and peripheral arteries, problems may arise with increasing numbers of treated patients and lengthier follow-up.

Methods—

After predilatation with 8-mm balloons, 8 Goettinger minipigs were randomly selected to receive a sirolimus-eluting self-expanding nitinol stent (7 mm/80 mm) as well as the same stent without sirolimus/polymer coating in the right or left CA. Aspirin was given starting 3 days before the intervention and administered for an additional 4 weeks. Clopidogrel was administered for 10 days.

Results—

After 6 weeks, 2 subacute occlusions were observed in both groups. In the remaining vessels, the neointima was significantly reduced by sirolimus/polymer-coated stents (5.9±2.5 versus 0.7±1.0 mm
2
).

Conclusions—

Sirolimus self-expanding nitinol stents may be an effective tool in reducing neointimal formation in CA.
Clinical Consequences of Infection in Patients With Acute Stroke
Authors: Vargas Martha , Horcajada Juan P. , Obach Victor , Revilla Marina , Cervera Álvaro , Torres Ferrán , Planas Anna M. , Mensa Josep , Chamorro Ángel
Published: December 2005

Background and Purpose—

It is unsettled whether stroke-associated infection (SAI) is an independent prognostic factor, and a recent clinical trial failed to show that antibiotic prophylaxis prevented SAI. Contrarily, this trial suggested that antibiotic prophylaxis impaired clinical recovery. We sought to evaluate the predisposing factors and clinical consequences of SAI to gather additional insight on the need of exploring other antibiotics in acute stroke.

Methods—

Between March 2001 and April 2002, 229 consecutive patients were admitted into the neurological wards within 24 hours of stroke onset. Demographics, risk factors, National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, vital data, imaging, and laboratory findings were prospectively evaluated. SAI was treated as early as possible. Multivariate regression analyses assessed predisposing factors of SAI and the independent association between SAI and poor stroke outcome at day 7 (Rankin >2).

Results—

Sixty (26%) patients developed SAI, most frequently chest infections, and within 3 days of stroke onset. Tube feeding (odds ratio [OR], 3.2; 95% CI, 1.3, 7.8) was the strongest predisposing factor of SAI. Poor outcome at hospital discharge was associated to baseline NIHSS score (OR, 10.0; 95% CI, 1.5, 100) and tube feeding (OR, 16.6; 95% CI, 2.9, 100.0), adjusted for confounders including antibiotic use. SAI was not independently associated to poor outcome (OR, 0.9; 95% CI, 0.9, 1.0).

Conclusions—

SAI is a marker of the severity of stroke without an independent outcome effect when it is promptly treated. These results support current stroke guidelines that advise prompt treatment of infection and warn against antibiotic prophylaxis. Yet, these recommendations should not prevent the performance of acute stroke trials assessing the value of antibiotics with acknowledged neuroprotective properties.
Antihypertensive Medication Use Among US Adults With Hypertension
Authors: Gu Qiuping , Paulose-Ram Ryne , Dillon Charles , Burt Vicki
Published: January 2006

Background—

High blood pressure can be controlled through existing antihypertensive drug therapy. This study examined trends in prescribed antihypertensive medication use among US adults with hypertension and compared drug utilization patterns with recommendations of the Sixth Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure.

Methods and Results—

Persons aged ≥18 years from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys were identified as hypertensive on the basis of either a blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg or self-reported current treatment for hypertension with a prescription medication. In 1999–2002, 62.9% of US hypertensive adults took a prescription antihypertensive medication compared with 57.3% during 1988–1994 (
P
<0.01). Men had the greatest increase in antihypertensive medication use (47.5%, 1988–1994 versus 57.9%, 1999–2002 [
P
<0.001]). In both surveys, antihypertensive medication use increased with age, was lower among men than among women, and was lower among Mexican Americans than among non-Hispanic whites and blacks. Multiple antihypertensive drug use increased from 29.1% to 35.8% (
P
<0.001). Polytherapy with a calcium channel blocker, β-blocker, or angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor significantly increased by 30%, 42%, and 68%, respectively, whereas monotherapy with a diuretic or β-blocker significantly decreased. For hypertensives with diabetes, congestive heart failure, or a prior heart attack, the utilization patterns closely followed the Sixth Joint National Committee guideline recommendations.

Conclusions—

Antihypertensive medication use and multiple antihypertensive medication use among US hypertensive adults increased over the past 10 years, but disparities by sociodemographic factors continue to exist.
Disclosing the Empty Secret: Textuality and Embodiment in the Cakrasamvara Tantra
Authors: Gray David
Published: December 2005

This article seeks to shed light on the textuality of Buddhist tantras and the esotericism that characterizes this genre of literature. It first examines the development of Buddhist models of textuality. Esoteric Buddhists developed a sophisticated textual theory that linked their scriptures to the gnosis of the Buddhas, which they claimed their practices could achieve most efficaciously. But the relation between text and practice is a problematical one. Indian Buddhists commentators on Cakrasamvara Tantra sought to resolve this problem through the trope of the "secret," an empty signifier that points both to practice traditions that are to be concealed, and an undisclosable gnosis to which some practices lead, and which others presuppose. The article closes with a survey of the changing interpretations of the "secret" as the tradition itself changed, highlighting the central importance of sexuality in the history of this tradition.
Mechanisms Affecting the Overturning Response in Global Warming Simulations
Authors: Schweckendiek U. , Willebrand J.
Published: December 2005

Climate models used to produce global warming scenarios exhibit widely diverging responses of the thermohaline circulation (THC). To investigate the mechanisms responsible for this variability, a regional Atlantic Ocean model driven with forcing diagnosed from two coupled greenhouse gas simulations has been employed. One of the coupled models (MPI) shows an almost constant THC, the other (GFDL) shows a declining THC in the twenty-first century.

The THC evolution in the regional model corresponds rather closely to that of the respective coupled simulation, that is, it remains constant when driven with the forcing from the MPI model, and declines when driven with the GFDL forcing. These findings indicate that a detailed representation of ocean processes in the region covered by the Atlantic model may not be critical for the simulation of the overall THC changes in a global warming scenario, and specifically that the coupled model’s rather coarse representation of water mass formation processes in the subpolar North Atlantic is unlikely to be the primary cause for the large differences in the THC evolution.

Sensitivity experiments have confirmed that a main parameter governing the THC response to global warming is the density of the intermediate waters in the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Seas, which in turn influences the density of the North Atlantic Deep Water, whereas changes in the air–sea heat and freshwater fluxes over the subpolar North Atlantic are only of moderate importance, and mainly influence the interannual–decadal variability of THC.

Finally, as a consequence of changing surface fluxes, the Labrador Sea convection ceases by about 2030 under both forcings (i.e., even in a situation where the overall THC is stable) indicating that the eventual breakdown of the convection is likely but need not coincide with substantial THC changes.
Tropical Pacific Decadal Variability and the Subtropical–Tropical Cells
Authors: Lohmann Katja , Latif Mojib
Published: December 2005

The decadal-scale variability in the tropical Pacific has been analyzed herein by means of observations and numerical model simulations. The two leading modes of the sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the central western Pacific are a decadal mode with a period of about 10 yr and the ENSO mode with a dominant period of about 4 yr. The SST anomaly pattern of the decadal mode is ENSO like. The decadal mode, however, explains most variance in the western equatorial Pacific and off the equator. A simulation with an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) forced by reanalysis data is used to explore the origin of the decadal mode. It is found that the variability of the shallow subtropical–tropical overturning cells is an important factor in driving the decadal mode. This is supported by results from a multicentury integration with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (CGCM) that realistically simulates tropical Pacific decadal variability. Finally, the sensitivity of the shallow subtropical–tropical overturning cells to greenhouse warming is discussed by analyzing the results of a scenario integration with the same CGCM.
The Annual Cycle of Heat Content in the Peru Current Region*
Authors: Takahashi Ken
Published: December 2005

The relative importance of the processes responsible for the annual cycle in the upper-ocean heat content in the Peru Current, in the southeastern tropical Pacific, was diagnosed from an oceanic analysis dataset. It was found that the annual cycle of heat content is forced mainly by insolation. However, the ocean dynamical processes play an important role in producing different regional budget characteristics.

In a band 500 km from the coast of Peru, the annual heat content changes in this region are relatively large and can be approximated as sea surface temperature (SST) changes in a fixed-depth mixed layer. The annual cycle of the albedo associated with low-level clouds enhances the annual cycle in insolation, which explains the relatively strong annual cycle of heat content. These clouds, to a large extent, act as a feedback to SST, but a small additional forcing, which is proposed to be cold air advection in this paper, is needed to explain the fact that the maximum cloudiness leads the lowest SST by around a month. Ocean dynamics is important closer to the coast, where upwelling acts partly as damping of the heat content changes and forces it to peak earlier than farther offshore.

In a band farther to the southwest, locally wind-forced thermocline motions, which become shallower (deeper) in the warm (cool) season, partially cancel the effect of net surface heat fluxes, whose annual cycle is comparable to that in the region previously mentioned, producing a relatively small annual cycle of heat content. The local forcing appears to be associated with the annual meridional displacements of the South Pacific anticyclone. The annual cycle in SST is also relatively small, which is probably due to the changes in the temperature of the water entrained into the mixed layer associated with the thermocline motions, but also to a mixed layer deeper than that closer to the coast.
Impact of Anomalous Ocean Heat Transport on the North Atlantic Oscillation
Authors: D’Andrea Fabio , Czaja Arnaud , Marshall John
Published: December 2005

Coupled atmosphere–ocean dynamics in the North Atlantic is studied by means of a simple model, featuring a baroclinic three-dimensional atmosphere coupled to a slab ocean. Anomalous oceanic heat transport due to wind-driven circulation is parameterized in terms of a delayed response to the change in wind stress curl due to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Climate variability for different strengths of ocean heat transport efficiency is analyzed. Two types of behavior are found depending on time scale. At interdecadal and longer time scales, a negative feedback is found that leads to a reduction in the spectral power of the NAO. By greatly increasing the efficiency of ocean heat transport, the NAO in the model can be made to completely vanish from the principal modes of variability at low frequency. This suggests that the observed NAO variability at these time scales must be due to mechanisms other than the interaction with wind-driven circulation. At decadal time scales, a coupled oscillation is found in which SST and geopotential height fields covary.
Statistical Correction of Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Forecasts
Authors: Tippett Michael K. , Barnston Anthony G. , DeWitt David G. , Zhang Rong-Hua
Published: December 2005

This paper is about the statistical correction of systematic errors in dynamical sea surface temperature (SST) prediction systems using linear regression approaches. The typically short histories of model forecasts create difficulties in developing regression-based corrections. The roles of sample size, predictive skill, and systematic error are examined in evaluating the benefit of a linear correction. It is found that with the typical 20 yr of available model SST forecast data, corrections are worth performing when there are substantial deviations in forecast amplitude from that determined by correlation with observations. The closer the amplitude of the uncorrected forecasts is to the optimum squared error-minimizing amplitude, the less likely is a correction to improve skill. In addition to there being less “room for improvement,” this rule is related to the expected degradation in out-of-sample skill caused by sampling error in the estimate of the regression coefficient underlying the correction.

Application of multivariate [canonical correlation analysis (CCA)] correction to three dynamical SST prediction models having 20 yr of data demonstrates improvement in the cross-validated skills of tropical Pacific SST forecasts through reduction of systematic errors in pattern structure. Additional beneficial correction of errors orthogonal to the CCA modes is achieved on a per-gridpoint basis for features having smaller spatial scale. Until such time that dynamical models become freer of systematic errors, statistical corrections such as those shown here can make dynamical SST predictions more skillful, retaining their nonlinear physics while also calibrating their outputs to more closely match observations.
The 1976/77 North Pacific Climate Regime Shift: The Role of Subtropical Ocean Adjustment and Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Feedbacks*
Authors: Wu Lixin , Lee Dong Eun , Liu Zhengyu
Published: December 2005

In this study, a new modeling approach is used to look for potential causes of the North Pacific decadal climate regime shift. This new modeling approach is specifically designed to assess not only how changes of the wind-driven ocean circulation induce SST variability, but also the subsequent feedback to climate. Observations appear to indicate that the 1970s North Pacific climate regime shift may be attributed to the coupled ocean–atmosphere interaction over the North Pacific in response to persistent wind stress anomalies in the previous decade. This tends to be supported by modeling results, which suggest that the delayed adjustment of the subtropical ocean circulation may generate sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the western subtropical Pacific that may potentially induce a shift of atmospheric circulation, leading to a change of SST in the central and midlatitude North Pacific. This study appears to unify the recent contradictory views of the roles of ocean circulation in the North Pacific decadal climate variability.
The Effects of the Gulf of California SSTs on Warm-Season Rainfall in the Southwestern United States and Northwestern Mexico: A Regional Model Study
Authors: Kim Jinwon , Kim Jongyoun , Farrara John D. , Roads John O.
Published: December 2005

The impacts of the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the northern Gulf of California (GC) on warm-season rainfall in the Arizona–New Mexico (AZNM) and the northwestern Mexico (NWM) regions associated with the North American monsoon (NAM) are examined from two sets of seasonal simulations in which different SSTs were prescribed in the GC. The simulations reproduced important features in the low-level mesoscale circulations and upper air fields around the time of monsoon rainfall onset in AZNM such as sea-breeze-like diurnal variations in the low-level winds between the GC and the land, development of south-southeasterly winds over the GC and the western slope of the Sierra Madre Occidental after the onset of rainfall, and the strengthening of the 500-hPa high over AZNM around the onset of monsoon rainfall in AZNM.

The simulated temporal variations in the upper air fields and daily rainfall, as well as the mesoscale circulation around the GC, suggest that the GC SSTs affect the water cycle around the GC mainly by altering mesoscale circulation and water vapor fluxes, but they have minimal impacts on the onset timing of monsoon rainfall in NWM and AZNM. With higher SSTs in the NGC, rainfall in NWM and AZNM increases in response to enhanced water vapor fluxes from the GC into the land. The enhanced onshore component of the low-level water vapor fluxes from the GC with higher GC SSTs results from two opposing effects: weakened sea-breeze-like circulation between the GC and the surrounding lands that tends to reduce the water vapor fluxes from the GC, and increased evaporation from the GC that tends to increase the water vapor fluxes. The simulations also suggest that the development of south-southeasterly low-level winds over the GC after monsoon rainfall onset plays an important role in enhancing rainfall as longer fetches over the GC can provide more water vapor into the low atmosphere.
Influence of Surface Processes over Africa on the Atlantic Marine ITCZ and South American Precipitation
Authors: Hagos Samson M. , Cook Kerry H.
Published: December 2005

Previous studies show that the climatological precipitation over South America, particularly the Nordeste region, is influenced by the presence of the African continent. Here the influence of African topography and surface wetness on the Atlantic marine ITCZ (AMI) and South American precipitation are investigated.

Cross-equatorial flow over the Atlantic Ocean introduced by north–south asymmetry in surface conditions over Africa shifts the AMI in the direction of the flow. African topography, for example, introduces an anomalous high over the southern Atlantic Ocean and a low to the north. This results in a northward migration of the AMI and dry conditions over the Nordeste region.

The implications of this process on variability are then studied by analyzing the response of the AMI to soil moisture anomalies over tropical Africa. Northerly flow induced by equatorially asymmetric perturbations in soil moisture over northern tropical Africa shifts the AMI southward, increasing the climatological precipitation over northeastern South America. Flow associated with an equatorially symmetric perturbation in soil moisture, however, has a very weak cross-equatorial component and very weak influence on the AMI and South American precipitation. The sensitivity of the AMI to soil moisture perturbations over certain regions of Africa can possibly improve the skill of prediction.
Observed Trends in Indices of Daily Temperature Extremes in South America 1960–2000
Authors: Vincent L. A. , Peterson T. C. , Barros V. R. , Marino M. B. , Rusticucci M. , Carrasco G. , Ramirez E. , Alves L. M. , Ambrizzi T. , Berlato M. A. , Grimm A. M. , Marengo J. A. , Molion L. , Moncunill D. F. , Rebello E. , Anunciação Y. M. T. , Quintana J. , Santos J. L. , Baez J. , Coronel G. , Garcia J. , Trebejo I. , Bidegain M. , Haylock M. R. , Karoly D.
Published: December 2005

A workshop on enhancing climate change indices in South America was held in Maceió, Brazil, in August 2004. Scientists from eight southern countries brought daily climatological data from their region for a meticulous assessment of data quality and homogeneity, and for the preparation of climate change indices that can be used for analyses of changes in climate extremes. This study presents an examination of the trends over 1960–2000 in the indices of daily temperature extremes. The results indicate no consistent changes in the indices based on daily maximum temperature while significant trends were found in the indices based on daily minimum temperature. Significant increasing trends in the percentage of warm nights and decreasing trends in the percentage of cold nights were observed at many stations. It seems that this warming is mostly due to more warm nights and fewer cold nights during the summer (December–February) and fall (March–May). The stations with significant trends appear to be located closer to the west and east coasts of South America.
Interannual Variability of Deep-Layer Hydrologic Memory and Mechanisms of Its Influence on Surface Energy Fluxes
Authors: Amenu Geremew G. , Kumar Praveen , Liang Xin-Zhong
Published: December 2005

The characteristics of deep-layer terrestrial memory are explored using observed soil moisture data and simulated soil temperature from the Illinois Climate Network stations. Both soil moisture and soil temperature are characterized by exponential decay in amplitude, linear lag in phase, and increasing persistence with depth. Using spectral analysis, four dominant low-frequency modes are identified in the soil moisture variability. These signals have periods of about 12, 17, 34, and 60 months, which correspond to annual cycle, (4/3) ENSO, quasi-biennial (QB) ENSO, and quasi-quadrennial (QQ) ENSO signals, respectively. For deep layers, the interannual modes are dominant over the annual cycle, and vice versa for the near-surface layer. There are inherently two mechanisms by which deep-layer moisture impacts the surface fluxes. First, its temporal variability sets the lower boundary condition for the transfer of moisture and heat fluxes from the surface. Second, this temporal variability influences the uptake of moisture by plant roots, resulting in the variability of the transpiration and, therefore, the entire energy balance. Initial results suggest that this second mechanism may be more predominant.
Cloud Inhomogeneity from MODIS
Authors: Oreopoulos Lazaros , Cahalan Robert F.
Published: December 2005

Two full months (July 2003 and January 2004) of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Atmosphere Level-3 data from the Terra and Aqua satellites are analyzed in order to characterize the horizontal variability of vertically integrated cloud optical thickness (“cloud inhomogeneity”) at global scales. The monthly climatology of cloud inhomogeneity is expressed in terms of standard parameters, initially calculated for each day of the month at spatial scales of 1° × 1° and subsequently averaged at monthly, zonal, and global scales. Geographical, diurnal, and seasonal changes of inhomogeneity parameters are examined separately for liquid and ice phases and separately over land and ocean. It is found that cloud inhomogeneity is overall weaker in summer than in winter. For liquid clouds, it is also consistently weaker for local morning than local afternoon and over land than ocean. Cloud inhomogeneity is comparable for liquid and ice clouds on a global scale, but with stronger spatial and temporal variations for the ice phase, and exhibits an average tendency to be weaker for near-overcast or overcast grid points of both phases. Depending on cloud phase, hemisphere, surface type, season, and time of day, hemispheric means of the inhomogeneity parameter ν (roughly the square of the ratio of optical thickness mean to standard deviation) have a wide range of ∼1.7 to 4, while for the inhomogeneity parameter χ (the ratio of the logarithmic to linear mean) the range is from ∼0.65 to 0.8. The results demonstrate that the MODIS Level-3 dataset is suitable for studying various aspects of cloud inhomogeneity and may prove invaluable for validating future cloud schemes in large-scale models capable of predicting subgrid variability.
Comments on “Impacts of CO2-Induced Warming on Simulated Hurricane Intensity and Precipitation: Sensitivity to the Choice of Climate Model and Convective Scheme”
Authors: Michaels Patrick J. , Knappenberger Paul C. , Landsea Christopher
Published: December 2005

In a simulation of enhanced tropical cyclones in a warmer world, Knutson and Tuleya make several assumptions that are not borne out in the real world. They include an unrealistically large carbon dioxide growth rate, an overly strong relationship between sea surface temperature and hurricane intensity, and the use of a mesoscale model that has shown little to no useful skill in predicting current-day hurricane intensity. After accounting for these inaccuracies, a detectable increase in Atlantic hurricane intensity in response to growing atmospheric greenhouse gas levels during this century becomes unlikely.
Reply
Authors: Knutson Thomas R. , Tuleya Robert E.
Published: December 2005

A response is made to the comments of Michaels et al. concerning a recent study by the authors. Even after considering Michaels et al.’s comments, the authors stand behind the conclusions of the original study. In contrast to Michaels et al., who exclusively emphasize uncertainties that lead to smaller future changes, uncertainties are noted that could lead to either smaller or larger changes in future intensities of hurricanes than those summarized in the original study, with accompanying smaller or larger societal impacts.
Treatment of Undercanopy Turbulence in Land Models
Authors: Zeng Xubin , Barlage Michael , Dickinson Robert E. , Dai Yongjiu , Wang Guiling , Oleson Keith
Published: December 2005

In arid and semiarid regions most of the solar radiation penetrates through the canopy and reaches the ground, and hence the turbulent exchange coefficient under canopy Cs becomes important. The use of a constant Cs that is only appropriate for thick canopies is found to be primarily responsible for the excessive warm bias of around 10 K in monthly mean ground temperature over these regions in version 2 of the Community Climate System Model (CCSM2). New Cs formulations are developed for the consistent treatment of undercanopy turbulence for both thick and thin canopies in land models, and provide a preliminary solution of this problem.
A Comparison of the Influence of Additive and Multiplicative Stochastic Forcing on a Coupled Model of ENSO
Authors: Perez Cristina L. , Moore Andrew M. , Zavala-Garay Javier , Kleeman Richard
Published: December 2005

A currently popular idea is that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can be viewed as a linear deterministic system forced by noise representing processes with periods shorter than ENSO. Also, there is observational evidence to suggest that the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) acts to trigger and/or amplify the warm phase of ENSO in this way. The feedback of the slower process, ENSO, to higher-frequency atmospheric phenomena, of which a large part of the variability in the intraseasonal band is due to the MJO, has received little attention. This paper considers the hypothesis that the probability of an El Niño event is modified by high MJO activity and that, in turn, the MJO is regulated by ENSO activity. If this is indeed the case, then viewing ENSO as a low-frequency oscillation forced by additive stochastic noise would not present a complete picture.

This paper tests the above hypothesis using a stochastically forced intermediate coupled model by allowing ENSO to directly influence the stochastic forcing. The model response to a variety of stochastic forcing types is found to be sensitive to the type of forcing applied. When the model is operated beyond its intrinsic Hopf bifurcation, its probability distribution function (PDF) is fundamentally altered when the stochastic forcing is changed from additive to multiplicative. The model integration period also influences the shape of the PDF, which is also compared to the PDF derived from observations. It is found that multiplicative stochastic forcing reproduces some measures of the observations better than the additive stochastic forcing.
ENSO and the Spatial Extent of Interannual Precipitation Extremes in Tropical Land Areas
Authors: Lyon Bradfield , Barnston Anthony G.
Published: December 2005

The extreme phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are known to dominate the interannual variability of tropical rainfall. However, the relationship between ENSO and the spatial extent of drought and excessively wet conditions is an important characteristic of the tropical climate that has received relatively less attention from researchers. Here, a standardized precipitation index is computed from monthly rainfall analyses and the temporal variability of the spatial extent of such extremes, for various levels of severity, is examined from a Tropics-wide perspective (land areas only, 30°S–30°N). Maxima in the spatial extent of both precipitation extremes are compared across multiple ENSO events that occurred during the period 1950–2003. The focus on tropical land areas is motivated by the numerous, often negative, impacts of ENSO-related precipitation variability on human populations.

Results show that major peaks in the spatial extent of drought and excessively wet conditions are generally associated with extreme phases of ENSO. A remarkably robust linear relationship is documented between the spatial extent of drought in the Tropics and El Niño strength (based on Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies), with a comparatively weaker relationship for La Niña and excessive wetness. Both conditions are found to increase by about a factor of 2 between strong and weak ENSO events, and in several locations they are shown to be more likely during ENSO events than at all other times, especially for severe categories. Relatively stronger El Niño events during recent decades are associated with increased drought extent in tropical land areas with increasing surface temperatures likely acting to exacerbate these dry conditions.
Structure and Formation Mechanisms of the Northern Hemisphere Summertime Subtropical Highs
Authors: Miyasaka Takafumi , Nakamura Hisashi
Published: December 2005

Three-dimensional structure and dynamics of the climatological-mean summertime subtropical highs over the North Pacific and Atlantic (i.e., the Azores high) are investigated. Each of the observed surface highs is accompanied by a meridional vorticity dipole aloft, exhibiting barotropic and baroclinic structures in its northern and southern portions, respectively, in a manner dynamically consistent with the observed midtropospheric subsidence. Each of the highs develops over the relatively cool eastern ocean, where a pronounced near-surface thermal contrast exists with a heated landmass to the east. The authors demonstrate through numerical experiments that those highs can be reproduced in response to a local shallow cooling–heating couplet associated with this thermal contrast, although the upper-level response is somewhat underestimated. The model experiments suggest that the near-surface thermal contrasts associated with those surface subtropical highs over the Pacific and Atlantic can act as sources of the observed planetary waves over the Western Hemisphere. In fact, a wave activity flux for stationary Rossby waves is distinctively upward and diverging toward downstream in the upper troposphere above each of the observed surface highs. The observed wave activity injection is significant into the Azores high but not at all into the Pacific high. Since each of the subtropical highs can be reproduced reasonably well, even for the premonsoon season (i.e., May), in response to a local shallow land–sea heating contrast, it is suggested that the monsoonal convective heating may not necessarily be a significant direct forcing factor for the formation of the summertime subtropical highs. In fact, the model response is quite weak if forced only by mid- and upper-tropospheric convective heating. The present study suggests the presence of a local land–sea–atmosphere feedback loop associated with a subtropical high and a continental low to its east, which may be triggered by increasing insolation over land from spring to summer.
Maternal Cigarette Smoking During Pregnancy and Life-Course-Persistent Offending
Authors: Piquero Alex R. , Gibson Chris L. , Tibbetts Stephen G. , Turner Michael G. , Katz Solomon H.
Published: January 2006

Evidence exists documenting the relationship between maternal cigarette smoking and offspring criminal behavior. Although efforts to understand this relationship in a theoretical framework have only recently emerged, attempts made have been grounded in Moffitt’s developmental taxonomy of antisocial behavior. Specifically, maternal cigarette smoking is generally viewed as a potential disruption in the offspring’s neuropsychological development, which is subsequently associated with life-course-persistent offending. Using a birth cohort of 987 African Americans, the authors extend previous research by empirically assessing, prospectively, the link between maternal cigarette smoking and life-course-persistent offending while using different operationalizations of Moffitt’s offending categorization. The authors’ findings offer some support for the relationship between maternal cigarette smoking and life-course-persistentoffending, which is dependenton how this conceptis operationalized.
Excess Burden of an Income Tax: What Do Mainstream Economists Really Measure?
Authors: Granqvist Roland , Lind Hans
Published: December 2005

An income tax can have side effects like decreased labor supply and lower effort levels. These side effects are important to consider in the decision of whether to introduce the tax. The terms deadweight lossand excess burdenare used by mainstream economists in this context. In this article, it is argued that according to the measures they use, an excess burden is registered, even if there are no actual side effects. The explanation is that they actually measure the difference between the situation with the income tax and a situation with a hypothetical lump sum tax. Because lump sum taxes are not realistic alternatives, for administrative and political reasons, the conventional measurements are irrelevant from a policy perspective.
Disciplinary Unemployment as a Public Good, or the Importance of the Committee to Manage the Common Affairs of the Whole Bourgeoisie
Authors: Ash Michael
Published: December 2005

Unemployment disciplines workers and reduces the wage that firms must pay to prevent shirking. Equilibrium unemployment is too low from the perspective of the profit-maximizing firm because each firm fails to account for the reduction in unemployment imposed by its own hiring. An executive committee for macroeconomic policy can provide discipline as a public good by maintaining higher unemployment to increase collective profits.
The General Rate of Profit in a New Market Economy: Conceptual Issues and Estimates
Authors: Izyumov Alexei , Alterman Sofia
Published: December 2005

Using national income data, we estimate levels and identify trends in the general rate of return in Russia from 1994 to 2002. Endogenous distributional and efficiency determinants of profitability are discussed in the Marxian analytical framework. We find that in spite of the major decline in output, the average rate of profit in Russia during the transition period was relatively high. This is primarily explained by the high level of the rate of surplus value (rate of exploitation), which was estimated to be 1.5-2 times as high as comparable estimates for the United States. In view of problems with data for profits and capital in Russia, we consider our estimates as only tentative indicators of the underlying trends and levels of profitability in the Russian economy.
Marxian Macroeconomic Categories in the Greek Economy
Authors: Maniatis Thanasis
Published: December 2005

This article presents an empirical analysis of the postwar Greek economy from a Marxist perspective. I discuss the methodological issues involved in the empirical definition and the measurement of key Marxian variables that describe the different facets of the process of income distribution and capital accumulation in a capitalist economy. Based on recent developments in Marxist empirical research, I calculate the rate of surplus value, the value and materialized composition of capital, the general Marxian rate of profit, and the net rate of profit for the 1958-1994 period. I evaluate the results in the context of Marx’s predictions about the long-run behavior of those variables in a capitalist economy and his theory of the falling rate of profit. The results provide empirical support for Marx’s theory, which appears to be a useful tool for the analysis of the postwar history and the prospects of the Greek economy.
Dynamics, Disequilibrium, and Marxian Economics: A Formal Analysis of Temporal Single-System Marxism
Authors: Veneziani Roberto
Published: December 2005

This article analyzes the temporal single-system interpretation (TSSI) of Marx’s economics. From a methodological viewpoint, the TSSI lacks both a clear definition of equilibrium and a rigorous analysis of disequilibrium dynamics, and the dynamic framework is incomplete. From a substantive viewpoint, temporal single-system (TSS) claims are trivially obtained by assuming that goods exchange at values, apart possibly from out-of-steady-state random deviations. Finally, the proof of the law of the tendential fall in the profit rate is tautologically true, but its theoretical relevance is unclear.
Embodied Knowledge: Writing Researchers’ Bodies Into Qualitative Health Research
Authors: Ellingson Laura L.
Published: January 2006

After more than a decade of postpositivist health care research and an increase in narrative writing practices, social scientific, qualitative health research remains largely disembodied. The erasure of researchers’ bodies from conventional accounts of research obscures the complexities of knowledge production and yields deceptively tidy accounts of research. Qualitative health research could benefit significantly from embodied writing that explores the discursive relationship between the body and the self and the semantic challenges of writing the body by incorporating bodily details and experiences into research accounts. Researchers can represent their bodies by incorporating autoethnographic narratives, drawing on all of their senses, interrogating the connections between their bodily signifiers and research processes, and experimenting with the semantics of self and body. The author illustrates opportunities for embodiment with excerpts from an ethnography of a geriatric oncology team and explores implications of embodied writing for the practice of qualitative health research.
The Framing of Nanotechnologies in the British Newspaper Press
Authors: Anderson Alison , Allan Stuart , Petersen Alan , Wilkinson Clare
Published: December 2005

This article investigates how developments in nanotechnology were framed in the British national newspaper press during a formative period in their rising public salience. Specifically, an intervention by Prince Charles in April 2003 is shown to have acted as the principal catalyst for much of the ensuing newspaper reporting over the next fifteen months. This study, in taking as its focus the operation of specific news frames, identifies a range of factors that shaped the initial terms of the subsequent debate (between both advocates and critics of nanotechnology) from one newspaper to the next during this period. The analysis suggests that the involvement of a celebrity may play a crucial role in enhancing the newsworthiness of an issue and influencing its subsequent framing in the newspaper press.
Framing Effects on Public Opinion about Nanotechnology
Authors: Cobb Michael D.
Published: December 2005

In this study, I examine whether Americans’ emotions and opinions about nanotechnology are influenced by how the issue is framed. Using data collected from an experiment embedded within a national survey, I find consistent framing effects even though the magnitudes of respondents’ opinion changes are not especially large. Frames about specific risks and benefits of nanotechnology are more influential than frames based on general beliefs about the merits of science, and framing nanotechnology as beneficial is only somewhat less powerful than framing it as risky. I conclude by discussing the implications of these framing effects for future mass opinions about nanotechnology.
Public Attitudes toward Emerging Technologies
Authors: Lee Chul-Joo , Scheufele Dietram A. , Lewenstein Bruce V.
Published: December 2005

Previous studies on public attitudes toward emerging technologies have treated cognitive and affective influences on public opinion as distinct, with little attention to the possible interaction between the two. Directly addressing this issue, we argue that cognitive and affective factors not only have important separate effects on public attitudes but also work in tandem to produce effects. In particular, it may be that affective variables shape the impact of cognitions and vice versa. We use data from a national telephone survey to test this interactive model of decision making about emerging technologies. Our analyses show that emotional heuristics moderate the effect that knowledge about nanotechnology has on people's overall attitudes toward nanotechnology, with knowledge having a weaker effect on attitudes for people who do show strong emotional reactions to the topic. The implications of these findings for future research and policy making in this area are discussed.
News Narratives about Nano S&T in Major U.S. and Non-U.S. Newspapers
Authors: Stephens Lowndes F.
Published: December 2005

The author of this content analytic study examines news narratives about nano science and technology (nano S&T) in major U.S. and non-U.S. newspapers by taking a random sample of 350 articles published from1988 through mid-July 2004 froma universe of 1,330 articles. In addition to identifying dominant frames or content themes, the author evaluates whether there is a dominant tone or sentiment regarding the ethical, legal, and societal implications of developments and issues in nano S&T. Scientific discoveries or projects and the social effects of nano S&T are the dominant frames. The ratio of articles leaning toward the sentiment that benefits outweigh risks versus that risks outweigh benefits is three to one.
Nanotechnology, Governance, and Public Deliberation: What Role for the Social Sciences?
Authors: Macnaghten Phil , Kearnes Matthew B. , Wynne Brian
Published: December 2005

In this article we argue that nanotechnology represents an extraordinary opportunity to build in a robust role for the social sciences in a technology that remains at an early, and hence undetermined, stage of development. We examine policy dynamics in both the United States and United Kingdom aimed at both opening up, and closing down, the role of the social sciences in nanotechnologies. We then set out a prospective agenda for the social sciences and its potential in the future shaping of nanotechnology research and innovation processes. The emergent, undetermined nature of nanotechnologies calls for an open, experimental, and interdisciplinary model of social science research.
Introduction—Nanotechnology and the Public
Authors: Lewenstein Bruce V.
Published: December 2005

This article introduces the special issue of Science Communication on “nanotechnology and the public.” It argues that studies of “nanotechnology and the public” are important not for themselves, but for their ability to shed light on more general social theories, especially those that help illuminate the interweaving of science and society.
Report: Continuing Science Education for Environmental Journalists and Science Writers
Authors: Valenti Joann M. , Tavana Gaugau
Published: December 2005

Since the emergence of specialty beats in science and environment reporting, journalists have looked for opportunities to enhance their understanding of these complex subjects. Institutions both public and private have responded with programs designed to provide continuing education aimed at those writers and reporters who cover science or environmental stories in a range of mass media. One such fellowship program, now in its 7th year, takes place annually under the direction of the National Tropical Botanical Garden, with its headquarters on the Hawaiian island of Kauai. A report on the program's success demonstrates the need for this and similar efforts geared toward improving the public's understanding of science by targeting media messengers.