Risk factors for long-term consequences of COVID-19 in hospitalised adults in Moscow using the ISARIC Global follow-up protocol: StopCOVID cohort study
Authors: Munblit Daniel , Bobkova Polina , Spiridonova Ekaterina , Shikhaleva Anastasia , Gamirova Aysylu , Blyuss Oleg , Nekliudov Nikita , Bugaeva Polina , Andreeva Margarita , DunnGalvin Audrey , Comberiati Pasquale , Apfelbacher Christian , Genuneit Jon , Avdeev Sergey , Kapustina Valentina , Guekht Alla , Fomin Victor , Svistunov Andrey A , Timashev Peter , Drake Thomas M , Hanson Sarah Wulf , Merson Laura , Horby Peter , Sigfrid Louise , Scott Janet T , Semple Malcolm G , Warner John O , Vos Theo , Olliaro Piero , Glybochko Petr , Butnaru Denis ,   Sechenov StopCOVID Research Team
Published: February 2021

Background

The long-term sequalae of COVID-19 remain poorly characterised. In this study, we aimed to assess long-standing symptoms (LS) (symptoms lasting from the time of discharge) in previously hospitalised patients with COVID-19 and assess associated risk factors.

Methods

This is a longitudinal cohort study of adults (≥18 years of age) with clinically diagnosed or laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 admitted to Sechenov University Hospital Network in Moscow, Russia. Data were collected from patients discharged between April 8 and July 10, 2020. Participants were interviewed via telephone using Tier 1 ISARIC Long-term Follow-up Study CRF and the WHO CRF for Post COVID conditions. Reported symptoms were further categorised based on the system(s) involved. Additional information on dyspnoea, quality of life and fatigue was collected using validated instruments. Multivariable logistic regressions were performed to investigate risk factors for development of LS categories.

Findings

Overall, 2,649 of 4,755 patients discharged from the hospitals were available for the follow-up and included in the study. The median age of the patients was 56 years (IQR, 46–66) and 1,353 (51.1%) were women. The median follow-up time since hospital discharge was 217.5 (200.4-235.5) days. At the time of the follow-up interview 1247 (47.1%) participants reported LS. Fatigue (21.2%, 551/2599), shortness of breath (14.5%, 378/2614) and forgetfulness (9.1%, 237/2597) were the most common LS reported. Chronic fatigue (25%, 658/2593) and respiratory (17.2% 451/2616) were the most common LS categories. with reporting of multi-system involvement (MSI) less common (11.3%; 299). Female sex was associated with LS categories of chronic fatigue with an odds ratio of 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.39 to 2.02), neurological (2.03, 1.60 to 2.58), mood and behaviour (1.83, 1.41 to 2.40), dermatological (3.26, 2.36 to 4.57), gastrointestinal (2.50, 1.64 to 3.89), sensory (1.73, 2.06 to 2.89) and respiratory (1.31, 1.06 to 1.62). Pre-existing asthma was associated with neurological (1.95, 1.25 to 2.98) and mood and behavioural changes (2.02, 1.24 to 3.18) and chronic pulmonary disease was associated with chronic fatigue (1.68, 1.21 to 2.32).

Interpretation

6 to 8 months after acute infection episode almost a half of patients experience symptoms lasting since hospital discharge. One in ten individuals experiences MSI. Female sex is the main risk factor for majority of the LS categories. chronic pulmonary disease is associated with a higher risk of chronic fatigue development, and asthma with neurological and mood and behaviour changes. Individuals with LS and MSI should be the main target for future research and intervention strategies.

Funding

This study is supported by Russian Fund for Basic Research and UK Embassy in Moscow. The ISARIC work is supported by grants from: the NIHR Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), in collaboration with Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine and the University of Oxford [award 200907], Wellcome Trust and Department for International Development [215091/Z/18/Z], and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation [OPP1209135], EU Platform for European Preparedness Against (Re-) emerging Epidemics (PREPARE) [FP7 project 602525] This research was funded in part, by the Wellcome Trust. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the DID, NIHR, Wellcome Trust or PHE.

Research in context

Evidence before this study

Evidence suggests that COVID-19 may result in short- and long-term consequences to health. Most studies do not provide definitive answers due to a combination of short follow-up (2-3 months), small sample size, and use of non-standardised tools. There is a need to study the longer-term health consequences of previously hospitalised patients with COVID-19 infection and to identify risk factors for sequalae.

Added value of this study

To our knowledge, this is the largest cohort study (n=2,649) with the longest follow-up since hospital discharge (6-8 months) of previously hospitalised adult patients. We found that 6-8 months after discharge from the hospital, around a half (47.1%) of patients reported at least one long-standing symptom since discharge. Once categories of symptoms were assessed, chronic fatigue and respiratory problems were the most frequent clusters of long-standing symptoms in our patients. Of those patients having long-term symptoms, a smaller proportion (11.3%) had multisystem involvement, with three or more categories of long-standing symptoms present. Although most patients developed symptoms since discharge, a smaller number of individuals experienced symptom beginning symptom appearing weeks or months after the acute phase. Female sex was a predictor for most of the symptom categories at the time of the follow-up interview, with chronic pulmonary disease associated with chronic fatigue-related symptoms, and asthma with a higher risk of neurological symptoms, mood and behaviour problems.

Implications of all the available evidence

The majority of patients experienced long-lasting symptoms 6 to 8 months after hospital discharge and almost half reported at least one long-standing symptom, with chronic fatigue and respiratory problems being the most frequent. A smaller number reported multisystem impacts with three or more long-standing categories present at follow-up. A higher risk was found for women, for chronic pulmonary disease with chronic fatigue, and neurological symptoms and mood and behaviour problems with asthma. Patterns of the symptom development following COVID-19 should be further investigated in future research.