A parallel course and a common fate? Demographic trends in the insular population of Greece, 1991-2018
Authors: Zafeiris Konstantinos N. , Kontogiannis Georgios 
Published: February 2025

Greece includes many inhabited islands. Their populations have exceptional cultural, political, economic and social characteristics. Within this environment, the research question in this paper relates to the recent demographic transition occurring in these areas to identify the existing diversity and possible convergences and divergences over time. After using several variables describing population structure, rhythms of population change, fertility and mortality, each insular population was compared with the national one. Results indicate some convergences between the populations studied, even though the majority of the insular populations remain distant from the national one. More specifically, there seems to be a ‘dividend’ in the insular space in Greece. The southern parts are characterized by younger populations, i.e. Zakynthos in the Ionian islands, along with Cyclades, the Dodecanese and three out of four departments in Crete (Chania, Rethymni and Irakleio). These areas also exhibit relatively high Natural Increase Rates and some of these departments (Zakynthos and the Cretan departments) are characterized by relatively elevated Total Fertility Rates. Concerning mortality schemes, many insular departments exhibit higher life expectancies than the country level (due to dietary habits, lifestyle etc.). The highest male life expectancies are recorded in Cyclades and Kefalonia, while the highest female life expectancies are observed in Cyclades, Kefalonia, Lefkada, Samos and several departments in Crete. The role of migration and refugee schemes in the demographic developments, as well as the small population sizes, have received special attention in the present paper. Last but not least, it has been underlined that military and university campuses are crucial regarding the evolution of population structures in Greek islands.Another scope of the present paper, apart from presenting findings about Greece and its insular space, was to provide some ideas for future demographic research at country and departmental level in Greece. Demographic analysis at sub-national levels shall be avoided before 1991 due to the fact that De Facto and not Resident population sizes are recorded in the 1980-1990 period. COVID-19 has influenced marriage, fertility and mortality in the 2020-2022 period. Additionally, in the 2010s and the early 2020s it became evident that there are different sub-populations in the country with diverse fertility behaviours (most Greeks are having few children at elevated ages, while immigrants, refugees and other groups, e.g. Romani people are creating much larger families at lower ages). Finally, out-of wedlock fertility schemes are gradually changing since the mid-2000s, but at a very fast pace in the 2010s and mainly in the 2019-2022 period. The aforementioned developments at country level probably exhibit differences at sub-national levels. To reiterate, the population of Greece and some of its islands is ageing at a fast pace and shrinking since 2011. These tendencies will probably continue in the 2020s, the 2030s and the 2040s, unless significantly positive migration balances alter these trends and appropriate policy measures are employed. These policies have to be based on robust scientific findings about the history and prospects of the populations inhabiting Greece’s mainland and insular space.