bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A simulation of the insurance industry: the problem of risk model homogeneity
Authors: Heinrich Torsten , Sabuco Juan , Farmer J. Doyne
Published: March 2021

We develop an agent-based simulation of the catastrophe insurance and reinsurance industry and use it to study the problem of risk model homogeneity. The model simulates the balance sheets of insurance firms, who collect premiums from clients in return for insuring them against intermittent, heavy-tailed risks. Firms manage their capital and pay dividends to their investors and use either reinsurance contracts or cat bonds to hedge their tail risk. The model generates plausible time series of profits and losses and recovers stylized facts, such as the insurance cycle and the emergence of asymmetric firm size distributions. We use the model to investigate the problem of risk model homogeneity. Under the European regulatory framework Solvency II, insurance companies are required to use only certified risk models. This has led to a situation in which only a few firms provide risk models, creating a systemic fragility to the errors in these models. We demonstrate that using too few models increases the risk of nonpayment and default while lowering profits for the industry as a whole. The presence of the reinsurance industry ameliorates the problem but does not remove it. Our results suggest that it would be valuable for regulators to incentivize model diversity. The framework we develop here provides a first step toward a simulation model of the insurance industry, which could be used to test policies and strategies for capital management.
Work Characteristics or Workers’ Characteristics? An Input-Process-Output Perspective on Informal Workplace Learning of Blue-Collar Workers
Authors: Decius Julian , Schaper Niclas , Seifert Andreas
Published: March 2021

We investigated informal workplace learning (IWL) within an under-researched target group: blue-collar workers. IWL is particularly important for these workers because of learning barriers to participation in formal training. Based on meta-analytical conceptualizations and findings, we developed a conceptual framework ofantecedents,processes, and learningoutcomes of IWL among blue-collar workers (APO framework), following an input-process-output perspective. The results of our structural equation model analysis withN = 702 blue-collar workers from small and medium-sized businesses provided support for seven of eight hypotheses: Personal antecedents, namelycuriosity,learning goal orientation, andself-directed learning orientationwere positively related to IWL; organizational antecedents, namelysocial support—containingsupervisor support,coworker support, anderror-related learning climate—and, surprisingly,time pressurewere positively related to IWL; IWL was positively related to three learning outcomes, namelyjob involvement,newly acquired competency, andorganizational citizenship behavior. The findings establish a basis for future longitudinal studies and theory building in workplace learning research, and they provide managers in organizations with guidance to promote IWL.
Ultrasound Assisted Alkaline Pre‐treatment Efficiently Solubilises Hemicellulose from Oat Hulls
Authors: Schmitz Eva , Karlsson Eva Nordberg , Adlercreutz Patrick
Published: March 2021

The establishment of sustainable bioeconomies requires the utilization of new renewable biomaterials. One such material currently seen as a waste product is oat hulls. Oat hulls exhibit a great potential for the production of dietary fibres due to their exceptionally large hemicellulose content (35%). Their recalcitrant structure however requires a suitable pre-treatment method to access and process the hemicellulose. After a screening of various physical, chemical and physico-chemical pre-treatment methods, including autoclaving, ultrasonication, microwave-, deep eutectic solvents-, as well as alkaline treatments, a combined ultrasonication and alkali pre-treatment method was here found to be the most suitable. A factorial design resulted in optimized conditions of 10 min ultrasonication in water, followed by an incubation in 5 M NaOH at 80 ºC for 9 h yielding solubilisation of 72% of all hemicellulose in the hulls. The method was shown to efficiently break the ester bonds between ferulic acid and the hemicellulose main chain, contributing to its solubilisation.

Graphic Abstract
Sustainable Cereal Straw Management: Use as Feedstock for Emerging Biobased Industries or Cropland Soil Incorporation?
Authors: Björnsson Lovisa , Prade Thomas
Published: March 2021

Sustainability goals regarding biobased chemicals and fuels can lead to increased demand for cereal straw, which could lead to undesirable effects on soil organic matter (SOM) content. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of removing straw on SOM, using a life cycle approach based on agricultural statistics and soil carbon modelling. This regional evaluation in southern Sweden showed that the general restrictions on straw removal recommended in many European studies, with demands on the incorporation of at least half of the aboveground straw, is not an efficient means of SOM preservation. Unrestricted straw removal in combination with the cultivation of intermediate crops leads to a much higher SOM build-up. Such measures will increase the availability of removable straw 2.5 times, at little extra cost. The findings of this study demonstrate the necessity of regional evaluation, taking new findings on the impact of straw incorporation on SOM into consideration. This is important for both regional emerging biobased industries, where unnecessary restrictions on straw removal might hamper the development of new production pathways, and for future sustainability in agriculture, where well-intended but inefficient SOM preservation strategies might hinder the implementation of more efficient measures.

Graphic Abstract
Design and implementation of a power smoothing system for cross-flow current turbines
Authors: Aaronson Hannah , Polagye Brian , Johnson Brian , Cavagnaro Robert J.
Published: March 2021

This study presents an efficient system that smooths fluctuations in electrical power from a cross-flow (i.e., “vertical-axis”) turbine. The proposed solution is a two-stage approach consisting of a low-pass filter and a bi-directional buck-boost converter. The design and stability characteristics of the system are presented, followed by time-domain simulation and validation against small-scale experiments. When this validated simulation is applied to a full-scale system, we demonstrate a 99% root mean square reduction in fluctuating power output with only a 3% drop in electrical system efficiency. This could allow intracycle control strategies to increase mechanical power output without causing electrical power fluctuations that are incompatible with direct use.
Genome-Wide 5-Hydroxymethylcytosine Profiling Analysis Identifies MAP7D1 as A Novel Regulator of Lymph Node Metastasis in Breast Cancer
Authors: Wu Shuang-Ling , Zhang Xiaoyi , Chang Mengqi , Huang Changcai , Qian Jun , Li Qing , Yuan Fang , Sun Lihong , Yu Xinmiao , Cui Xinmiao , Jiang Jiayi , Cui Mengyao , Liu Ye , Wu Huan-Wen , Liang Zhi-Yong , Wang Xiaoyue , Niu Yamei , Tong Wei-Min , Jin Feng
Published: March 2021

Although DNA 5-hydroxymethylcytosine (5hmC) is recognized as an important epigenetic mark in cancer, its precise role in lymph node metastasis remains elusive. In this study, we investigated how 5hmC associates with lymph node metastasis in breast cancer. Accompanying with high expression of TET1 and TET2 proteins, large numbers of genes in the metastasis-positive primary tumors exhibit higher 5hmC levels than those in the metastasis-negative primary tumors. In contrast, the TET protein expression and DNA 5hmC decrease significantly within the metastatic lesions in the lymph nodes compared to those in their matched primary tumors. Through genome-wide analysis of 8 sets of primary tumors, we identified 100 high-confidence metastasis-associated 5hmC signatures, and it is found that increased levels of DNA 5hmC and gene expression of MAP7D1 associate with high risk of lymph node metastasis. Furthermore, we demonstrate that MAP7D1, regulated by TET1, promotes tumor growth and metastasis. In conclusion, the dynamic 5hmC profiles during lymph node metastasis suggest a link between DNA 5hmC and lymph node metastasis. Meanwhile, the role of MAP7D1 in breast cancer progression suggests that the metastasis-associated 5hmC signatures are potential biomarkers to predict the risk for lymph node metastasis, which may serve as diagnostic and therapeutic targets for metastatic breast cancer.
Clinical and molecular characteristics of primary ciliary dyskinesia
Authors: Alzaid Mohammed , Al-Mobaireek Khalid , Almannai Mohammed , Mukhtar Gawahir , Eltahir Safa , Zafar Adnan , Zada Abdulali P. , Alotaibi Wadha
Published: March 2021

Background:

Primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD) is a ciliopathy with diverse clinical and genetic findings caused by abnormal motile cilia structure and function. In this study, we describe the clinical characteristics of confirmed PCD cases in our population and report the radiological, genetic, and laboratory findings.

Methods:

This was a retrospective, observational, single-centre study. We enrolled 18 patients who were diagnosed with confirmed PCD between 2015 and 2019. We then analyzed their data, including clinical findings and workup.

Results:

In our cohort, 56% of patients had molecularly confirmed PCD, and RSPH9 was the most common gene identified. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM) showed an ultrastructural defect in 64% of samples, all of which matched the genetic background of the patient. Situs inversus (SI) was observed in 50% of patients, and congenital heart disease was observed in 33%. The median body mass index (BMI) was 15.87 kg/m2, with a median z score of -1.48. The median FEV1 value was 67.6% (z score - 2.43). Radiologically, bronchiectasis was noted in 81% of patients at a variable degree of severity. Lung bases were involved in 91% of patients. We were unable to correlate the genotype-phenotype findings.

Conclusion:

We describe the clinical and molecular characteristics of patients with confirmed PCD in a tertiary centre in Saudi Arabia and report 9 new pathogenic or likely pathogenic variants in one of the PCD-associated genes.
Series and Products in the Development of Mathematics
Authors: Roy Ranjan
Published: March 2021

This is the first volume of a two-volume work that traces the development of series and products from 1380 to 2000 by presenting and explaining the interconnected concepts and results of hundreds of unsung as well as celebrated mathematicians. Some chapters deal with the work of primarily one mathematician on a pivotal topic, and other chapters chronicle the progress over time of a given topic. This updated second edition of Sources in the Development of Mathematics adds extensive context, detail, and primary source material, with many sections rewritten to more clearly reveal the significance of key developments and arguments. Volume 1, accessible to even advanced undergraduate students, discusses the development of the methods in series and products that do not employ complex analytic methods or sophisticated machinery. Volume 2 treats more recent work, including deBranges' solution of Bieberbach's conjecture, and requires more advanced mathematical knowledge.
The rise and fall of party leaders: exploring leadership selection, re-selection, and de-selection using qualitative comparative analysis
Authors: Vicentini Giulia , Pritoni Andrea
Published: March 2021

The main purpose of this paper is to detect the reasons for party leaders' persistence or departure from the office, starting from the moment they are selected or re-selected. More specifically, we try to assess which (if any) characteristics of the leadership race (LR) called to appoint (or re-appoint) the party leader, in combination with other conditions, could favour leadership re-selection in office at the end of the term, rather than a more or less forced early departure. To this end, we have investigated all the LRs promoted by both bigger and smaller parties in four Western European countries over the last three decades. Bridging the literature on leadership selection and leadership survival, we built a theoretical framework that allowed us to turn to an original methodological approach in the field – qualitative comparative analysis – to unravel asymmetrical, equi-final, and conjunctural causation by looking at the combinations of conditions leading to the outcome, namely re-selection or departure from the office. Specifically, we identified five main conditions which are likely to affect the outcome, both alone and in combination with each other: whether there is an outgoing leader running for re-election (incumbency); a broad inclusiveness of the LR called to appoint the party leader; large victory (namely low competitiveness for contested LR or high approval rates for coronation of a single candidate); participation in government during the leadership tenure; and party electoral support (‘big’ mainstream vs. ‘small’ niche/challenger parties).
A multi-proxy reconstruction of climate during the late-Pleistocene to early Holocene transition in the northeastern, USA
Authors: Grigg Laurie D. , Engle Kevin J. , Smith Alison J. , Shuman Bryan N. , Mandl Maximilian B.
Published: March 2021

A multiproxy record from Twin Ponds, VT, is used to reconstruct climatic variability during the late Pleistocene to early Holocene transition. Pollen, ostracodes, δ18O, and lithologic records from 13.5 to 9.0 cal ka BP are presented. Pollen- and ostracode-inferred climatic reconstructions are based on individual species’ environmental preferences and the modern analog technique. Principal components analysis of all proxies highlights the overall warming trend and centennial-scale climatic variability. During the Younger Dryas cooling event (YD), multiple proxies show evidence for cold winter conditions and increasing seasonality after 12.5 cal ka BP. The early Holocene shows an initial phase of rapid warming with a brief cold interval at 11.5 cal ka BP, followed by a more gradual warming; a cool, wet period from 11.2 to 10.8 cal ka BP; and cool, dry conditions from 10.8 to 10.2 cal ka BP. The record ends with steady warming and increasing moisture. Post-YD climatic variability has been observed at other sites in the northeastern United States and points to continued instability in the North Atlantic during the final phases of deglaciation.
“We Cannot Please Everyone”: Contentions over Adjustment in EPRDF Ethiopia (1991–2018)
Authors: Labzaé Mehdi , Planel Sabine
Published: March 2021

This article looks at how rural inhabitants navigated state power under a regime led by a former socialist party that negotiated its conversion to a market economy while keeping tight control on the whole society. In that regard, it addresses adjustment in a very specific context, by analysing a distinctive chronology, raising the ruling party's ability to negotiate with the international financial institutions, and considering popular reactions from a rural point of view. The regime led by the Ethiopian Peoples’ Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) managed to delay measures of structural adjustment during the 1990s and 2000s while deepening structures of state control it partly inherited from the former military junta. Brutal structural adjustment plans were refused, while international financial institutions were kept away from the Ethiopian government's policy mix, by way of elaborate ideological and institutional arrangements. The EPRDF coined its own version of the “developmental state” and renewed state control of the economy while deepening its articulation to global markets. Under the EPRDF, all sectors of society and especially peasantries were closely monitored and mobilized in the name of development. But although the open expression of dissent remained rare, peasants resorted to many strategies to cope with political control and to some extent divert it. By taking agricultural policies as a case study, the article describes peasant practices and questions differences between resistance, false compliance, and diversion, underlining how blurred such labels can actually be.
Colonial secularism built in brick: Religion in Rangoon
Authors: Turner Alicia
Published: March 2021

This article examines colonial secularism in Burma through a history of the built environment of Rangoon. The creation of the colonial city in the 1850s as an ordered grid of ethnic neighbourhoods and established religions served as a pedagogy of the secular, teaching its population to internalise religious difference. And yet, against this secular vision in brick and pavement there were exceptional spaces that enacted alternative visions. The Thayettaw monastic complex began as home for the diverse displaced ethnic monasteries of the pre-colonial town, but it soon defied the boundaries of colonial rule. Its practice of Buddhism became a mechanism for mobility, interaction, and interconnection.
The generaBrianaria(Psoraceae) andMicarea(Pilocarpaceae) in Japan, with reports on other interesting species in Asia
Authors: Coppins Brian J. , Kashiwadani Hiroyuki , Moon Kwang Hee , Spribille Toby , Thor Göran
Published: March 2021

An examination of collections from Japan has increased the number ofBrianariaandMicareaspecies known from that country from eight to 19, including one new species,M. rubioidesCoppins (also from Malaysia and the Philippines). Eleven species are reported as new to Japan (M. botryoides(Nyl.) Coppins,M. denigrata(Fr.) Hedl.,M. erratica(Körb.) Hertelet al.,M. hedlundiiCoppins,M. lithinella(Nyl.) Hedl.,M. micrococca(Körb.) Gams ex Coppins andM. misella(Nyl.) Hedl.) or new to Asia:M. byssacea(Th. Fr.) Czarnotaet al.,M. deminutaCoppins andM. xanthonicaCoppins & Tønsberg (new to Asia; Japan);M. nitschkeana(J. Lahm ex Rabenh.) Harm. (new to Asia; South Korea). The presence ofMicarea prasinas. str. from Japan needs to be confirmed; no collection was found in this study. Additional collections from South Korea and Sri Lanka are also reported, including the new speciesM. ceylanicaCoppins from Sri Lanka. The identity ofM. synotheoides(Nyl.) Coppins, originally described from Japan, has been resolved, resulting in the renaming of Western European material, previously under that name, asM. longisporaCoppins.Micarea coreanaLőköset al. is reported here as a synonym ofM. erratica. The type ofLecidea inopinulaNyl. requires the new combinationMicarea inopinula(Nyl.) Coppins & T. Sprib. to replaceMicarea prasinella(Jatta) I. M. Lamb.
Thelopsis challenges the generic circumscription in the Gyalectaceae and brings new insights to the taxonomy of Ramonia
Authors: Ertz Damien , Sanderson Neil , Lebouvier Marc
Published: March 2021

The genus Thelopsis was classified in the family Stictidaceae but its systematic position has never been investigated by molecular methods. In order to determine its family placement and to test its monophyly, fungal DNA of recent collections of Thelopsis specimens was sequenced. Phylogenetic analyses using nuLSU, RPB2 and mtSSU sequences reveal that members of Thelopsis form a monophyletic group within the genus Gyalecta as currently accepted. The placement of Thelopsis, including the generic type T. rubella, within the genus Gyalecta challenges the generic circumscription of this group because Thelopsis is well recognized by the combination of morphological characters: perithecioid ascomata, well-developed periphysoids, polysporous asci and small, few-septate ellipsoid-oblong ascospores. The sterile sorediate Opegrapha corticola is also placed in the Gyalectaceae as sister species to Thelopsis byssoidea + T. rubella. Ascomata of O. corticola are illustrated for the first time and support its placement in the genus Thelopsis. The hypothesis that O. corticola might represent the sorediate fertile morph of T. rubella is not confirmed because the species is phylogenetically and morphologically distinct. Thelopsis is recovered as polyphyletic, with T. melathelia being placed as sister species to Ramonia. The new combinations Thelopsis corticola (Coppins & P. James) Sanderson & Ertz comb. nov. and Ramonia melathelia (Nyl.) Ertz comb. nov. are introduced and a new species of Gyalecta, G. amsterdamensis Ertz, is described from Amsterdam and Saint-Paul Islands, characterized by a sterile thallus with discrete soralia. Petractis luetkemuelleri and P. nodispora are accommodated in the new genus Neopetractis, differing from the generic type (P. clausa) by having a different phylogenetic position and a different photobiont. Francisrosea bicolor Ertz & Sanderson gen. & sp. nov. is described for a sterile sorediate lichen somewhat similar to Opegrapha corticola but having an isolated phylogenetic position as sister to a clade including Gyalidea praetermissa and the genera Neopetractis and Ramonia. Gyalecta farlowii, G. nidarosiensis and G. carneola are placed in a molecular phylogeny for the first time. The taxonomic significance of morphological characters in Gyalectaceae is discussed.
Four newMicareaspecies from the montane cloud forests of Taita Hills, Kenya
Authors: Kantelinen Annina , Hyvärinen Marko-Tapio , Kirika Paul M. , Myllys Leena
Published: March 2021

The genusMicareawas studied for the first time in the Taita Hills, Kenya. Based on new collections and existing data, we reconstructed a phylogeny using ITS, mtSSU andMcm7 regions, and generated a total of 27 new sequences. Data were analyzed using maximum likelihood and maximum parsimony methods. Based mainly on new collections, we discovered four undescribed well-supported lineages, characterized by molecular and phenotypic features. These lineages are described here asMicarea pumila,M. stellaris,M. taitensisandM. versicolor.Micarea pumilais characterized by a minutely granular thallus, small cream-white or pale brownish apothecia, small ascospores and the production of prasinic acid.Micarea stellarishas a warted-areolate thallus, cream-white apothecia usually darker at the centre, a hymenium of light grey or brownish pigment that dissolves in K, and intense crystalline granules that appear as a belt-like continuum across the lower hymenium when studied in polarized light.Micarea taitensisis characterized by a warted-areolate thallus and cream-white or yellowish apothecia that sometimes produce the Sedifolia-grey pigment.Micarea versicoloris characterized by a warted-areolate, sometimes partly granular thallus and apothecia varying from cream-white to light grey to blackish in colour. This considerable variation in the coloration of its apothecia is caused by an occasional mixture of the Sedifolia-grey pigment in the epihymenium and another purplish brown pigment in the hymenium.Micarea stellaris,M. taitensisandM. versicolorproduce methoxymicareic acid. The main distinguishing characters are presented in a species synopsis. Three of the new species are nested in theM. prasinagroup, and the fourth one (M. taitensis) resolves as a basal taxon to theM. prasinagroup. The new species inhabit montane cloud forests, which have fragmented dramatically throughout the Eastern Arc Mountains in recent decades.
Mismatch negativity and P3a in drug-naive adults with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder
Authors: Hsieh Ming H. , Chien Yi-Ling , Gau Susan Shur-Fen
Published: March 2021

Background

Individuals with attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) often display over-response to stimuli that are irrelevant to the ongoing task, and their attentional abilities disproportionately worsen in the presence of competing stimuli. Auditory event-related potentials (ERPs) such as mismatch negativity (MMN) and P3a using the passive oddball paradigm have been studied in children and adolescents with ADHD. Still, there is no such data for adults with ADHD. This study aimed to compare the MMN and P3a and their clinical and neurocognitive correlations between drug-naive adults with ADHD and control adults.

Methods

We recruited 52 adults with ADHD (26.5 ± 6.2 years), and 62 age-matched controls (25.6 ± 5.6 years). They received the psychiatric interviews, auditory ERP, the Conners' continuous performance test (CCPT), and the Cambridge gambling test (CGT). They also completed the questionnaires about ADHD symptoms and real-world executive functions. MMN and P3a were assessed during a passive duration-deviant auditory oddball paradigm from the midline electrodes Cz.

Results

Adults with ADHD demonstrated smaller Cz MMN amplitude, more severe ADHD symptoms, poorer attention profiles (CCPT), and a wide range of executive dysfunctions than controls. As for the correlates, Cz peak amplitude of MMN correlated with inattention symptoms, executive dysfunctions, attentional vigilance (CCPT), and decision-making (CGT) in ADHD adults but only with decision-making in controls.

Conclusions

Our findings that smaller amplitude of MMN and its differential associated pattern with inattention, real-world executive dysfunction, and decision-making, in drug-naive adults with ADHD from adult controls, provide evidence to support the potential electrophysiological biomarker for adult ADHD.
Unexpected effects of expressive writing on post-disaster distress in the Hurricane Harvey Study: a randomized controlled trial in perinatal women
Authors: Paquin Vincent , Bick Johanna , Lipschutz Rebecca , Elgbeili Guillaume , Laplante David P. , Biekman Brian , Brunet Alain , King Suzanne , Olson David
Published: March 2021

Background

Expressive writing requires journaling stressor-related thoughts and feelings over four daily sessions of 15 min. Thirty years of research have popularized expressive writing as a brief intervention for fostering trauma-related resilience; however, its ability to surpass placebo remains unclear. This study aimed to determine the efficacy of expressive writing for improving post-traumatic stress symptoms in perinatal women who were living in the Houston area during major flooding caused by Hurricane Harvey.

Methods

A total of 1090 women were randomly allocated (1:1:1) to expressive writing, neutral writing or no writing. Interventions were internet-based. Online questionnaires were completed before randomization and at 2 months post-intervention. The primary outcome was post-traumatic stress symptoms, measured with the Impact of Event Scale-Revised; secondary outcomes were affective symptoms, measured with the 40-item Inventory of Depression and Anxiety Scales. Feelings throughout the intervention were reported daily using tailored questionnaires.

Results

In intention-to-treat analyses, no post-treatment between-group differences were found on the primary and secondary outcomes. Per-protocol analyses yielded similar results. A number of putative moderators were tested, but none interacted with expressive writing. Expressive writing produced greater feelings of anxiety and sadness during the intervention compared to neutral writing; further, overall experiences from the intervention mediated associations between expressive writing and greater post-traumatic stress at 2 months post-intervention.

Conclusions

Among disaster-stricken perinatal women, expressive writing was ineffective in reducing levels of post-traumatic stress, and may have exacerbated these symptoms in some.
A comparison of ‘pruning’ during multi-step planning in depressed and healthy individuals
Authors: Faulkner Paul , Huys Quentin J. M. , Renz Daniel , Eshel Neir , Pilling Stephen , Dayan Peter , Roiser Jonathan P.
Published: March 2021

Background

Real-life decisions are often complex because they involve making sequential choices that constrain future options. We have previously shown that to render such multi-step decisions manageable, people ‘prune’ (i.e. selectively disregard) branches of decision trees that contain negative outcomes. We have theorized that sub-optimal pruning contributes to depression by promoting an oversampling of branches that result in unsavoury outcomes, which results in a negatively-biased valuation of the world. However, no study has tested this theory in depressed individuals.

Methods

Thirty unmedicated depressed and 31 healthy participants were administered a sequential reinforcement-based decision-making task to determine pruning behaviours, and completed measures of depression and anxiety. Computational, Bayesian and frequentist analyses examined group differences in task performance and relationships between pruning and depressive symptoms.

Results

Consistent with prior findings, participants robustly pruned branches of decision trees that began with large losses, regardless of the potential utility of those branches. However, there was no group difference in pruning behaviours. Further, there was no relationship between pruning and levels of depression/anxiety.

Conclusions

We found no evidence that sub-optimal pruning is evident in depression. Future research could determine whether maladaptive pruning behaviours are observable in specific sub-groups of depressed patients (e.g. in treatment-resistant individuals), or whether misuse of other heuristics may contribute to depression.
JHET INTERVIEWS: ROBERT F. HÉBERT
Authors: Mosca Manuela
Published: March 2021

Robert F. Hébert was the eighteenth president of the History of Economics Society, from 1991 to 1992. He studied at Louisiana State University at Baton Rouge from his undergraduate degree (completed in 1965) to his PhD (obtained in 1970). During his academic career he taught economics in the US at Clemson University (South Carolina, 1970 to 1974), Auburn University (Alabama, 1974 to 2000), and the University of Louisiana at Lafayette (2000 to 2005); and in France at Université de Paris 1 (Sorbonne, 1995) and at the University of Caen (2004). Currently Professor Hébert is Russell Foundation Professor of Economics (Emeritus Professor of Entrepreneurial Studies) at Auburn University, and he resides in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. This interview was done in writing from November 6 to December 18, 2019.
Food security mediates the decrease in women’s depressive symptoms in a participatory nutrition-sensitive agroecology intervention in rural Tanzania
Authors: Cetrone Hollyn M , Santoso Marianne V , Bezner Kerr Rachel , Petito Lucia , Blacker Lauren , Nonga Theresia , Martin Haikael D , Kassim Neema , Mtinda Elias , Young Sera L
Published: March 2021

Objective:

To investigate if food security mediated the impact of a nutrition-sensitive agroecology intervention on women’s depressive symptoms.

Design:

We used annual longitudinal data (four time points) from a cluster-randomised effectiveness trial of a participatory nutrition-sensitive agroecology intervention, the Singida Nutrition and Agroecology Project. Structural equation modelling estimation of total, natural direct and natural indirect effects was used to investigate food security’s role in the intervention’s impact on women’s risk of probable depression (Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale > 17) across 3 years.

Setting:

Rural Singida, Tanzania.

Participants:

548 food insecure, married, smallholder women farmers with children < 1 year old at baseline.

Results:

At baseline, one-third of the women in each group had probable depression (Control: 32·0 %, Intervention: 31·9 %,Pdifference = 0·97). The intervention lowered the odds of probable depression by 43 % (OR = 0·57, 95 % CI: 0·43, 0·70). Differences in food insecurity explained approximately 10 percentage points of the effects of the intervention on odds of probable depression (OR = 0·90, 95 % CI: 0·83, 0·95).

Conclusions:

This is the first evidence of the strong, positive effect that lowering food insecurity has on reducing women’s depressive symptoms. Nutrition-sensitive agricultural interventions can have broader impacts than previously demonstrated, i.e. improvements in mental health; changes in food security play an important causal role in this pathway. As such, these data suggest participatory nutrition-sensitive agroecology interventions have the potential to be an accessible method of improving women’s well-being in farming communities.
Terrorist campaigns and the growth of the Muslim population
Authors: Choi Seung-Whan
Published: March 2021

The world population of Muslims has increased exponentially in the past decade. Why is the world's Muslim population growing so quickly? This study offers a new theoretical perspective: the growth of the worldwide Muslim population is a result of a series of terrorist campaigns that inspire non-Muslims to convert to Islam. For empirical testing, this study employs a cross-national, time-series analysis of 152 countries from 1970 to 2007. Although there is lack of data on conversions that follow terrorist campaigns for a direct test of the theory, this study finds a correlation between terrorist attacks and growth of the Muslim population. This finding is robust and consistent even after controlling for salient demographic reasons for growth, such as the level of fertility and immigration.
Ontological Insecurity as an Emergent Phenomenon
Authors: Ejdus Filip , Rečević Tijana
Published: March 2021

Abstract. One of the central debates in Ontological Security Studies (OSS) has been about the level-of-analysis. While some authors focus on individuals, others have scaled up the concept and applied it to collectives such as states as the main ontological security seekers. In this article, we contribute to the level-of-analysis debate in OSS by providing a novel argument in defense of scaling up. By drawing on the literatures on complexity and securitization, we conceptualize ontological security as an emergent phenomenon. It arises from the ground-up and is driven by feedback loops in a non-linear and spontaneous fashion from horizontal micro-interactions and securitizations from below, ultimately reaching a tipping point. We illustrate this argument in a case study of anti-immigrant mobilization in Serbia since the outbreak of the European migration crisis (2015–2020). At the outset of the crisis, state officials interpreted the migration crisis as a manageable and temporary situation, adopted an “open door” policy and even banned far-right extremist demonstrations against migration. Over time, however, ontological insecurity over the migrant threat has gradually emerged from the bottom-up through a cascade of rumors, connective action, and everyday securitizing acts. While it might be too early to conclude that the national tipping point has been reached, this case study clearly shows why ontological insecurity merits to be studied as an emergent phenomenon.
Climatic Drivers of Extreme Sea Level Events Along the Coastline of Western Australia
Authors: Lowe Ryan J. , Cuttler Michael V. W. , Hansen Jeff E.
Published: March 2021

Accurate prediction of coastal flooding requires a detailed understanding of all individual contributions to sea level variability and how they interact to trigger extreme sea level (ESL) events. In this study, we focus on the expansive (∼10,000 km) coastline of Western Australia, a region that experiences large latitudinal gradients in met‐ocean sources of sea level variability, as a case study to investigate the mechanisms responsible for ESLs and trends over the past 54 years (1966–2019). Using long‐term sea level records from tide gauges and satellite altimetry, we explore how different contributions to sea level variability at different time scales (from hourly to interannual) interact to generate ESLs. We observe that all individual, nontidal contributions to ESLs (i.e., atmospheric surge, seasonal and interannual variability) are of similar magnitude (of order 10 cm) along the entire coast and comparable to the tidal variations in the microtidal southwestern region. The results reveal the important role that seasonal and interannual sea level variability plays in generating ESLs, with these low‐frequency contributions being relatively large compared to typical global values. With mean sea level having risen by ∼10 cm over this 54‐year study period, sea level rise was also identified as making an increasingly significant contribution to observed increases in the frequency of ESLs. Overall, due to the comparatively large magnitude of low‐frequency sea level contributions (seasonal and longer), the Western Australia coast provides a useful case study to investigate how sustained periods of elevated sea level will impact coastlines worldwide more broadly in the future.
Record of Neotectonics and Deep Crustal Fluid Circulation Along the Santa Fe Fault Zone in Travertine Deposits of the Lucero Uplift, New Mexico, USA
Authors: Garcia V. H. , Ma L. , Ricketts J. W. , Dosseto A.
Published: March 2021

Travertine deposits preserve an invaluable record of both ancient and modern fluid flow. The goal of this study is to reconstruct spatial and temporal patterns in travertine deposition associated with tectonic and climatic controls along the Lucero Uplift in New Mexico, USA. Uranium‐series ages of travertine deposits in the Lucero Uplift range from 0.94 ± 0.01 to 592 ± 110 ka, indicating that travertine formation has been episodically active since at least ∼600 ka. We find minimal evidence to attribute glacial and interglacial cycles to travertine formation in the Lucero Uplift. δ13C values in travertine deposits range from 2‰ to 9‰ (Vienna Pee Dee Belemnite), δ18O values range from 21‰ to 25‰ (Vienna Standard Mean Ocean Water). Positive correlation between travertine δ13C and δ18O values indicate travertine formation is closely associated with various degrees of CO2 degassing. 87Sr/86Sr values in travertine deposits range from 0.714 to 0.717 and (234U/238U)i values exhibit a remarkably wide range from 3.6 to 9.3, indicative of fluid‐rock interaction during deep crustal circulation in more radiogenic basement rocks. Reconstructed δ13C, δ18O, and (234U/238U)i values in the inferred deep fluid sources showed systematic variations with travertine formation ages, while 87Sr/86Sr values remain relatively constant. Based on dating of undeformed travertine deposits, which overlie tilted Santa Fe Group units, and high (234U/238U)i we infer that the Santa Fe fault has not produced a ground‐rupturing earthquake within the last 490 ± 52 to 592 ± 110 ka (2σ). Our study suggest that travertine formation is driven by fluid flow facilitated by tectonic and mantle structures.
The Thermospheric Column O/N2 Ratio
Authors: Meier R. R.
Published: March 2021

More than 2 decades ago, D. J. Strickland and colleagues proposed use of the O/N2 column number density ratio as a new geophysical quantity to interpret thermospheric processes recorded in far ultraviolet (FUV) images of the Earth. This concept has enabled multiple advances in understanding the global behavior of Earth's thermosphere. Nevertheless, confusion remains about the conceptual meaning of the column density ratio, and in the application of this integral quantity. This is so even though it is now a key thermospheric measurement made by current and planned far ultraviolet remote sensing missions in pursuit of new understanding of thermospheric processes and variability. The intent here is to review the historical context of the O/N2 column density ratio, clarify its physical meaning, and resolve misunderstandings evident in the literature. Simple examples elucidate its original derivation for extracting column O/N2 ratios from measurements of the OI 135.6 nm/N2 Lyman‐Birge‐Hopfield (LBH) emission based on an algorithmic synthesis of model precomputations. These are organized in the form of a table lookup of column density ratio as a function of observed radiance ratios. To accommodate generalized solar‐geophysical and viewing conditions, the table required to specify the number of needed parameters becomes large. Proposed as an alternative is a simplified, first principles approach to obtaining the column density ratio from the emission ratio. This new methodology is now being applied successfully to FUV measurements made from onboard the Ionospheric CONnection satellite and will be applied retrospectively to the Global Ultraviolet Imager data.
Analyzing Low Frequency Seismic Events at Cerberus Fossae as Long Period Volcanic Quakes
Authors: Kedar Sharon , Panning Mark P. , Smrekar Suzanne E. , Stähler Simon C. , King Scott D. , Golombek Matthew P. , Manga Michael , Julian Bruce R. , Shiro Brian , Perrin Clement , Power John A. , Michaut Chloe , Ceylan Savas , Giardini Domenico , Lognonné Philippe H. , Banerdt William B.
Published: March 2021

The InSight Mission began acquiring the first seismic data on Mars in early 2019 and has detected hundreds of events. The largest events recorded to date originate at Cerberus Fossae, a young volcanic region characterized by high volume, low viscosity lava flows. A handful of Low Frequency (LF) quakes that share key attributes of Long Period quakes recorded on Earth's volcanoes are also traced to Cerberus Fossae. This study explores whether a traditional volcanic source model that simulates the generation of tremor as pressurized fluid makes its way through a channel at depth, can explain these atypical LF events. We consider a wide range of physical parameters including fluid viscosity, the ratio of driving pressure to lithostatic pressure, aspect ratio of the channel, and the equilibrium channel opening. We find that the model can produce the observed seismic signature, with a combination of low‐viscosity magma and high volume flux of ∼104 − 105 m3/s that are within an order‐of‐magnitude agreement with Cerberus Fossae lava flow properties deduced from analysis of lava flow dimensions. It is impossible, however, at this stage to conclude whether or not this is a likely explanation for Mars, as the model results in fluxes that are extreme for Earth yet are just within bounds of what has been inferred for Cerberus Fossae. We therefore conclude that we cannot rule out active magma flow as the mechanism responsible for the atypical LF events that likely originate from Cerberus Fossae.
Speleothem‐Based Hydroclimate Reconstructions During the Penultimate Deglaciation in Northern China
Authors: Xue Gang , Cai Yanjun , Lu Yanbin , Ma Le , Cheng Xing , Liu Chengcheng , Yan Hong , Sun Youbin , Li Dong , Wei Yingying , Huang Shouyi , He Mei , Cheng Hai , Edwards R. Lawrence
Published: March 2021

Trace elements in a speleothem have been considered to be effective proxies to characterize hydroclimatic changes. In this study, we present speleothem trace element records of the penultimate glacial‐interglacial transition from 138 to 125.8 ka BP from the Shangxiaofeng cave in northeastern China. We used two analytical methods, namely, inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry (ICP‐OES) and the Avaatech high‐resolution X‐ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanner. Both methods showed good consistency for Sr/Ca but not for Mg/Ca because of the high Mg detection limit of XRF. By comparing the trace element ratios (Sr/Ca and Mg/Ca) with δ13C and by analyzing the slope of the regression line of ln(Sr/Ca) versus ln(Mg/Ca), we found that trace element variations were dominated by hydroclimate‐related prior calcite precipitation (PCP) and water‐rock interaction (WRI). A gradually decreasing trend of Sr/Ca, Mg/Ca, and δ13C records during the glacial‐interglacial transition indicated that the hydroclimate moved toward a moist condition with an intensified East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and transgression of the coastline. The transgression shortened the distance between the cave site and the coastline, possibly contributing to persistent rainfall enhancement at the study site.
Extreme‐Event Magnetic Storm Probabilities Derived From Rank Statistics of Historical Dst Intensities for Solar Cycles 14–24
Authors: Love Jeffrey J.
Published: March 2021

A compilation is made of the largest and second‐largest magnetic‐storm‐maximum intensities, −Dst1 and −Dst2, for solar cycles 14–24 (1902–2016) by sampling Oulu Dcx for cycles 19–24, using published −Dstm values for 4 intense storms in cycles 14, 15, and 18 (1903, 1909, 1921, 1946), and calculating 15 new storm‐maximum −Dstm values (reported here) for cycles 14–18. Three different models are fitted to the cycle‐ranked −Dst1 and −Dst2 values using a maximum‐likelihood algorithm: A Gumbel model, an unconstrained Generalized‐Extreme‐Value model, and a Weibull model constrained to have a physically justified maximum storm intensity of −Dstm = 2500 nT. All three models are good descriptions of the data. Since the best model is not clearly revealed with standard statistical tests, inference is precluded of the source process giving rise to storm‐maximum −Dstm values. Of the three candidate models, the constrained Weibull gives the lowest superstorm occurrence probabilities. Using the compiled data and the constrained Weibull model, a once‐per‐century storm intensity is estimated to be −Dst1 = 663 nT, with a bootstrap 68% confidence interval of [497, 694] nT. Similarly, the probability that a future storm will have an intensity exceeding that of the March 1989 superstorm, −Dstm > 565 nT, is 0.246 per cycle with a 68% confidence interval of [0.140, 0.311] per cycle. Noting (possibly slight) ambiguity in the rankings of storm intensities, using the same methods, but storms more intense than those identified for cycles 14–16, would yield a higher once‐per‐century intensity and a higher probability for a −Dstm > 565 nT storm.
Preclinical small molecule WEHI-7326 overcomes drug resistance and elicits response in patient-derived xenograft models of human treatment-refractory tumors
Authors: Grohmann Christoph , Walker Francesca , Devlin Mark , Luo Meng-Xiao , Chüeh Anderly C. , Doherty Judy , Vaillant François , Ho Gwo-Yaw , Wakefield Matthew J. , Weeden Clare E. , Kamili Alvin , Murray Jayne , Po’uha Sela T. , Weinstock Janet , Kane Serena R. , Faux Maree C. , Broekhuizen Esmee , Zheng Ye , Shield-Artin Kristy , Kershaw Nadia J. , Tan Chin Wee , Witchard Helen M. , Ebert Gregor , Charman Susan A. , Street Ian , Kavallaris Maria , Haber Michelle , Fletcher Jamie I. , Asselin-Labat Marie-Liesse , Scott Clare L. , Visvader Jane E. , Lindeman Geoffrey J. , Watson Keith G. , Burgess Antony W. , Lessene Guillaume
Published: March 2021

Targeting cell division by chemotherapy is a highly effective strategy to treat a wide range of cancers. However, there are limitations of many standard-of-care chemotherapies: undesirable drug toxicity, side-effects, resistance and high cost. New small molecules which kill a wide range of cancer subtypes, with good therapeutic window in vivo, have the potential to complement the current arsenal of anti-cancer agents and deliver improved safety profiles for cancer patients. We describe results with a new anti-cancer small molecule, WEHI-7326, which causes cell cycle arrest in G2/M, cell death in vitro, and displays efficacious anti-tumor activity in vivo. WEHI-7326 induces cell death in a broad range of cancer cell lines, including taxane-resistant cells, and inhibits growth of human colon, brain, lung, prostate and breast tumors in mice xenografts. Importantly, the compound elicits tumor responses as a single agent in patient-derived xenografts of clinically aggressive, treatment-refractory neuroblastoma, breast, lung and ovarian cancer. In combination with standard-of-care, WEHI-7326 induces a remarkable complete response in a mouse model of high-risk neuroblastoma. WEHI-7326 is mechanistically distinct from known microtubule-targeting agents and blocks cells early in mitosis to inhibit cell division, ultimately leading to apoptotic cell death. The compound is simple to produce and possesses favorable pharmacokinetic and toxicity profiles in rodents. It represents a novel class of anti-cancer therapeutics with excellent potential for further development due to the ease of synthesis, simple formulation, moderate side effects and potent in vivo activity. WEHI-7326 has the potential to complement current frontline anti-cancer drugs and to overcome drug resistance in a wide range of cancers.