bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Markov-Switching Bayesian Vector Autoregression Model in Mortality Forecasting
Authors: Fu Wanying , Smith Barry R. , Brewer Patrick , Droms Sean
Published: August 2023

We apply a Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregression (MSBVAR) model to mortality forecasting. MSBVAR has not previously been applied in this context, and our results show that it is a promising tool for mortality forecasting. Our model shows better forecasting accuracy than the Lee–Carter and Bayesian vector autoregressive (BVAR) models without regime-switching and while retaining the advantages of BVAR. MSBVAR provides more reliable estimates for parameter uncertainty and more flexibility in the shapes of point-forecast curves and shapes of confidence intervals than BVAR. Through regime-switching, MSBVAR helps to capture transitory changes in mortality and provides insightful quantitative information about mortality dynamics.
Sparse Signal Models for Data Augmentation in Deep Learning ATR
Authors: Agarwal Tushar , Sugavanam Nithin , Ertin Emre
Published: August 2023

Automatic target recognition (ATR) algorithms are used to classify a given synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image into one of the known target classes by using the information gleaned from a set of training images that are available for each class. Recently, deep learning methods have been shown to achieve state-of-the-art classification accuracy if abundant training data are available, especially if they are sampled uniformly over the classes and in their poses. In this paper, we consider the ATR problem when a limited set of training images are available. We propose a data-augmentation approach to incorporate SAR domain knowledge and improve the generalization power of a data-intensive learning algorithm, such as a convolutional neural network (CNN). The proposed data-augmentation method employs a physics-inspired limited-persistence sparse modeling approach, which capitalizes on the commonly observed characteristics of wide-angle synthetic aperture radar (SAR) imagery. Specifically, we fit over-parametrized models of scattering to limited training data, and use the estimated models to synthesize new images at poses and sub-pixel translations that are not available in the given data in order to augment the limited training data. We exploit the sparsity of the scattering centers in the spatial domain and the smoothly varying structure of the scattering coefficients in the azimuthal domain to solve the ill-posed problem of the over-parametrized model fitting. The experimental results show that, for the training on the data-starved regions, the proposed method provides significant gains in the resulting ATR algorithm’s generalization performance.
Investigating Deformation Mechanism of Earth-Rock Dams with InSaR and Numerical Simulation: Application to Liuduzhai Reservoir Dam, China
Authors: Liu Guoshi , Hu Jun , Liu Leilei , Sun Qian , Wu Wenqing
Published: August 2023

Ground deformation is the direct manifestation of the earth-rock dam's hazard potential. Therefore, it is essential to monitor deformation for dam warning and security evaluation. The Liuduzhai Dam, a clay-core dam of a large reservoir in China, was reinforced with plastic concrete cut-off walls between 13 January 2009 and 29 May 2010, as it was subject to leakage and deformation. However, the deformation development and the mechanism of the dam are still unclear. In this study, the deformation fields before and after the reinforcement of the Liuduzhai Dam were yielded by using the Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technique. Furthermore, a numerical simulation method was employed to obtain the dynamic seepage field of the dam during the InSAR observation period. The results indicated that the average deformation velocity and maximum deformation velocity are −11.7 mm/yr and −22.5 mm/yr, respectively, and the cumulative displacement exceeds 100 mm, which shows typical continuous growth characteristics in a time series. In contrast, the dam deformation tended to be stable after reinforcement, with the average deformation velocity and maximum deformation velocity being −0.4 mm/yr and −1.2 mm/yr, respectively, behaving as cyclical deformation time series. According to the results of InSAR and seepage analysis, it is shown that: (1) dynamic seepage was the main mechanism controlling dam deformation prior to reinforcement; (2) the concentrated load caused by construction and the rapid dissipation of pore water pressure caused by the sudden drop of the infiltration line were the reasons for the acceleration of deformation during and after construction; and (3) the plastic concrete cut-off walls effectively reduced the dynamic seepage field, while the water level fluctuations were the main driving factor of elastic deformation of the dam after reinforcement. This study provides a novel approach to investigating the deformation mechanism of earth-rock dams. Furthermore, it has been confirmed that InSAR can identify the seepage deformation of dams by detecting surface movements. It is recommended that InSAR deformation monitoring should be incorporated into future dam safety programs to provide detailed deformation signals. By analyzing the temporal and spatial characteristics of the deformation signal, we can identify areas where dam performance has degraded. This crucial information aids in conducting a comprehensive dam safety assessment.
A Review of Practical AI for Remote Sensing in Earth Sciences
Authors: Janga Bhargavi , Asamani Gokul , Sun Ziheng , Cristea Nicoleta
Published: August 2023

Integrating Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques with remote sensing holds great potential for revolutionizing data analysis and applications in many domains of Earth sciences. This review paper synthesizes the existing literature on AI applications in remote sensing, consolidating and analyzing AI methodologies, outcomes, and limitations. The primary objectives are to identify research gaps, assess the effectiveness of AI approaches in practice, and highlight emerging trends and challenges. We explore diverse applications of AI in remote sensing, including image classification, land cover mapping, object detection, change detection, hyperspectral and radar data analysis, and data fusion. We present an overview of the remote sensing technologies, methods employed, and relevant use cases. We further explore challenges associated with practical AI in remote sensing, such as data quality and availability, model uncertainty and interpretability, and integration with domain expertise as well as potential solutions, advancements, and future directions. We provide a comprehensive overview for researchers, practitioners, and decision makers, informing future research and applications at the exciting intersection of AI and remote sensing.
DBH Estimation for Individual Tree: Two-Dimensional Images or Three-Dimensional Point Clouds?
Authors: Mao Zhihui , Lu Zhuo , Wu Yanjie , Deng Lei
Published: August 2023

Accurate forest parameters are crucial for ecological protection, forest resource management and sustainable development. The rapid development of remote sensing can retrieve parameters such as the leaf area index, cluster index, diameter at breast height (DBH) and tree height at different scales (e.g., plots and stands). Although some LiDAR satellites such as GEDI and ICESAT-2 can measure the average tree height in a certain area, there is still a lack of effective means for obtaining individual tree parameters using high-resolution satellite data, especially DBH. The objective of this study is to explore the capability of 2D image-based features (texture and spectrum) in estimating the DBH of individual tree. Firstly, we acquired unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) LiDAR point cloud data and UAV RGB imagery, from which digital aerial photography (DAP) point cloud data were generated using the structure-from-motion (SfM) method. Next, we performed individual tree segmentation and extracted the individual tree crown boundaries using the DAP and LiDAR point cloud data, respectively. Subsequently, the eight 2D image-based textural and spectral metrics and 3D point-cloud-based metrics (tree height and crown diameters) were extracted from the tree crown boundaries of each tree. Then, the correlation coefficients between each metric and the reference DBH were calculated. Finally, the capabilities of these metrics and different models, including multiple linear regression (MLR), random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM), in the DBH estimation were quantitatively evaluated and compared. The results showed that: (1) The 2D image-based textural metrics had the strongest correlation with the DBH. Among them, the highest correlation coefficient of −0.582 was observed between dissimilarity, variance and DBH. When using textural metrics alone, the estimated DBH accuracy was the highest, with a RMSE of only 0.032 and RMSE% of 16.879% using the MLR model; (2) Simply feeding multi-features, such as textural, spectral and structural metrics, into the machine learning models could not have led to optimal results in individual tree DBH estimations; on the contrary, it could even reduce the accuracy. In general, this study indicated that the 2D image-based textural metrics have great potential in individual tree DBH estimations, which could help improve the capability to efficiently and meticulously monitor and manage forests on a large scale.
A Multiscale Method for Infrared Ship Detection Based on Morphological Reconstruction and Two-Branch Compensation Strategy
Authors: Chen Xintao , Qiu Changzhen , Zhang Zhiyong
Published: August 2023

Infrared ship target detection is crucial technology in marine scenarios. Ship targets vary in scale throughout navigation because the distance between the ship and the infrared camera is constantly changing. Furthermore, complex backgrounds, such as sea clutter, can cause significant interference during detection tasks. In this paper, multiscale morphological reconstruction-based saliency mapping, combined with a two-branch compensation strategy (MMRSM-TBC) algorithm, is proposed for the detection of ship targets of various sizes and against complex backgrounds. First, a multiscale morphological reconstruction method is proposed to enhance the ship targets in the infrared image and suppress any irrelevant background. Then, by introducing a structure tensor with two feature-based filter templates, we utilize the contour information of the ship targets and further improve their intensities in the saliency map. After that, a two-branch compensation strategy is proposed, due to the uneven distribution of image grayscale. Finally, the target is extracted using an adaptive threshold. The experimental results fully show that our proposed algorithm achieves strong performance in the detection of different-sized ship targets and has a higher accuracy than other existing methods.
Availability and Adequacy of Facilities in 15 Minute Community Life Circle Located in Old and New Communities
Authors: Wu Wei , Divigalpitiya Prasanna
Published: August 2023

The 15 minute Community Life Circle (15 min-CLC) concept is an urban planning approach that aims to provide various daily services for citizens within a short distance. It has been widely adopted in China, especially in large cities. However, there is a lack of research on how to apply the 15 min-CLC concept in second-tier cities, which have high population densities and lower quality of life. This study chose Jinan City as a case study to explore the underdeveloped areas and facilities of 15 min-CLCs in rapidly developing and medium-size cities, called second-tier cities. First, it analyzed the distribution of facilities and residential POIs in old communities, new communities, and the whole city, to find out which types of facilities are missing at the community level. Second, it examined the relationship between facilities and population in each 15 min-CLC by using the Facility to Population Ratio (FPR), to evaluate the sufficiency of facilities to meet the daily needs of residents. Through the analysis of facility distribution and Facility to Population Ratio, our study found that old communities have all the required facility types within each 15 min-CLC, but they do not have enough number of facilities to support the population. At the same time, identified the underdeveloped regions and provided specific development directions for each 15 min-CLC. The FPR methodology developed in this study can be used to evaluate whether the existing facilities can meet the daily needs of residents in a certain region.
State-Space Modeling of Housing Sentiment for Regressing Changes of Real Estate Prices Following Short-Term Control Policy in China
Authors: Zang Taiyi , Gu Hongmei
Published: August 2023

Government may need to launch policies to stabilize real estate prices being away from unusual rise at an unexpected pace through short-term regulations of sales and purchases. Short-term control policies are often not effective immediately after withdrawal, but their effect easily attracts swift and intensive responses of consumer sentiments. The change in sentiment synchronizes with that of expectations, which together account for housing price in response to restrictions following short-term policies. The research objective of this study is to establish the role of housing sentiment in policymaking to regulate and stabilize real estate prices. To cope with the tough tissue of unclear knowledge about customers’ sentiments, we employed the state-space model to explore the impact of short-term regulatory policies on housing sentiment. The research objective of this study also involves optimizing the instrument for assessing housing sentiments. Results showed that: Firstly, the short-term regulation and control policy enhanced positive sentiment in the housing market. Secondly, high positive sentiment further increased the cyclical prices. Thirdly, the upsurge of consumer sentiment has weakened the impact of short-term control policies on real estate market price. Lowered housing sentiment resulted in a reduction in the effectiveness of short-term control policies. Overall, our study verifies that high positive consumer sentiments will result in an increase in housing prices, hence it is customers’ sentiments that caused the failure of short-term control policies.
Characterization of Road Dust, PMx and Aerosol in a Shopping–Recreational Urban Area: Physicochemical Properties, Concentration, Distribution and Sources Estimation
Authors: Jandacka Dusan , Brna Matej , Durcanska Daniela , Kovac Matus
Published: August 2023

Road transport is a source of exhaust and non-exhaust emissions of particulate matter (PM). Non-exhaust PM emissions include road surface wear, tires, brakes and road dust resuspension. An important part of PM in urban air consists of particles that originate from the resuspension of road dust. This study focused on the analysis of the physicochemical properties of road dust and PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 (PMx) in the air (size, concentration, distribution, content of chemical elements), the properties of urban aerosol (number, mass and area distribution), and at the same time, the interconnection between the detected chemical elements in road dust and individual PM fractions in the air in order to reveal the sources of PM in the Žilina City, Slovakia. The presence of various chemical elements was found in road dust, of which the highest concentrations (more than 100 mg/g) were the elements Ca, Si and Al (specifically 373.3 mg/g, 351.4 mg/g and 113.9 mg/g on average from four sampling sites). The concentrations of PM10, PM2.5 and PM1 were, on average, 27.2 μg/m3, 19.5 μg/m3 and 14.5 μg/m3 during the measurement period according to the reference gravimetric method. The chemical elements K, S, Cd, Sb, Pb, Ni and Zn were detected and the most represented (more than 60%) in the fine PM2.5 fraction, and the chemical elements Mg, Al, Si, Ca, Cr, Cu, Fe and Ba were the most represented in the coarse PM2.5–10 fraction. The analysis of the aerosol in the range of 12 nm–20 μm revealed a bimodal distribution of the collected sample of the investigated urban aerosol. This study provides a comprehensive view of the properties of road dust, airborne PM and aerosol (up to the size of nanoparticles), which can contribute to the expansion of knowledge in this field.
The Spatial Value and Efficiency of Inland Ports with Different Development Models: A Case Study in China
Authors: Zhuang Peijun , Li Xiaoning , Wu Jianfu
Published: August 2023

Inland ports have become elements of the modern transport and logistics infrastructure hub and play an important role in shaping urban spatial texture. However, the spatial dimensions of their development have received little attention in the existing literature. This paper explores the spatial value concept for inland ports, i.e., the node and place values, by using a node-place model that was adopted for passenger terminals such as metro stations or train terminals. After measuring the node and place values, our research further evaluates the efficiency of node value’s impact in improving place value, which indicates the effects of node value on regional development. This paper examines the impact of inland port activities on regional development, studying 12 Chinese inland ports with various models. The results show that half of the inland ports are balanced in terms of node value and place value. Only 50% of the inland ports are efficient, in terms of the contribution of node value to place value, in promoting the regional economy. Inland ports in a balanced position are usually more efficient. This study provides new evidence of inland ports promoting regional development, as well as a basis for policy-making for future inland ports.
A Study on the Impact of Team Interdependence on Cooperative Performance in Public–Private Partnership Projects: The Moderating Effect of Government Equity Participation
Authors: Zhang Han , Shi Shiying , Zhao Fangfang , Ye Xiaosu , Qi Hanyue
Published: August 2023

Sustainable collaboration among teams drives sustainable public–private partnership (PPP) projects, and the interactions, perceptions, and behaviors of project teams with ad hoc decision-making power critically impact collaborative performance in PPP contexts. While the role relationships between subjective interdependence, collective behaviors, team processes, and performance in PPP project teams are yet to be clarified, further validation is needed to embed this logic in project management. This study aims to clarify the role relationships among the four variables of team interdependence, team interaction, team performance, and government participation. Through an empirical investigation of the data of 367 samples of PPP project teams and data analysis by SPSS 26.0 and Amos 23.0, it is found that team interdependence (task interdependence, result interdependence) has a significant positive effect on cooperative performance, and team interaction plays a mediating role in this process. Compared with enterprises with low government share, team interdependence with high government share has a significant positive effect on the team cooperation performance of PPP projects and has a positive moderating effect on the influence mechanism of team cooperation performance. Based on this, this paper proposes strategies for PPP project team management and sustainable development. It suggests corresponding suggestions for improving PPP project team performance and sustainable development.
Numerical and Experimental Study on Flow Field around Slab-Type High-Rise Residential Buildings
Authors: Xia Yuchao , Shen Yan , Yuan Jiahui , Chen Shuifu
Published: August 2023

High-rise residential buildings often adopt rectangular cross-sections with large depth-to-width ratios. Moreover, the cross-sections have many grooves and chamfers for better ventilation and lighting. However, related research is lacking. This study performed wind tunnel tests and large eddy simulations (LES) on two typical buildings to analyze the surface wind pressures and flow fields around the buildings. The base moment spectra, along with the wind pressure coefficients, demonstrate that numerical simulation is capable of accurately representing the magnitudes and variations in wind loads along the height of the building. Furthermore, numerical simulation effectively captures the dominant energy distribution characteristics of fluctuating wind loads in the frequency domain. The shear layer separations, vortex shedding and reattachment phenomenon were observed. It was found that in the middle and lower parts of the buildings, the shear layer separation changed dramatically. Buildings with depth-to-width ratios close to 2 are minimally affected by changes in wind direction. However, for buildings with larger depth-to-width ratios, especially when the short side faces the wind, the reattachment of the shear layer and the shedding of wake vortices become crucial factors in generating fluctuating cross-wind loads. This emphasizes the significant impact of wind direction and plan dimensions on flow characteristics and aerodynamic behavior. When the building contained corners and grooves, the low-wind-speed area induced by the shear layer separation shrank and the reattachment point shifted closer to the windward facade.
Digitization of Ancient Artefacts and Fabrication of Sustainable 3D-Printed Replicas for Intended Use by Visitors with Disabilities: The Case of Piraeus Archaeological Museum
Authors: Kantaros Antreas , Soulis Evangelos , Alysandratou Elli
Published: August 2023

The digitization of ancient artifacts and the fabrication of sustainable 3D-printed replicas present a promising solution for enhancing the accessibility to cultural heritage sites for visitors with disabilities. This article focuses on the case study of the Piraeus Archaeological Museum. The study investigates the process of digitizing a selection of ancient artifacts from the museum’s collection and utilizing 3D printing technology to produce tactile replicas from recycled Polylactic Acid (PLA) material that provide a multisensory experience for individuals with disabilities like vision impairment. The research examines the technical challenges and considerations faced by the authors’ team during the 3D scanning process of the artifacts, the manufacturing of raw material from 3D printing waste, as well as the optimization of 3D printing parameters to ensure the creation of high-quality 3D-printed replicas. Furthermore, the article points out the positive future impact that the 3D-printed replicas will have on the engagement and comprehension of vision-impaired visitors, highlighting the potential of this approach in promoting inclusivity and fostering a connection with cultural heritage.
Characteristics of Polyurethane/Waste Rubber Powder Composite Modifier and Its Effect on the Performance of Asphalt Mixture
Authors: Gao Bo , Zhao Yuechao , Zhao Zenggang
Published: August 2023

To solve the problems of storage stability and the volatile organic compound emission of waste-rubber-powder-modified bitumen, the strategy of preparing composite modifiers using waterborne polyurethane coating for waste rubber powder was proposed in an early-stage work. However, the effect of polyurethane/waste rubber powder composite modifier on the performance of asphalt mixture is unclear, which limits the further popularization of this technology. Therefore, this work mainly investigates the characteristics of composite modifiers and their influence on asphalt mixture. The results indicate that the optimum ratio of polyurethane to waste rubber powder is about 1:1, which can give the composite modifier sufficient mechanical properties and acceptable economic benefits. The scanning electron microscopy images also confirm that polyurethane can densely encapsulate waste rubber powder. The physical properties experiment of bitumen shows that composite modifiers can increase the softening point and viscosity of bitumen but reduce the ductility and penetration of bitumen. Moreover, it was also found that composite modifiers can significantly improve asphalt mixtures’ resistance to permanent deformation and moisture damage. This can be attributed to the increase in the consistency of the asphalt binder due to the composite modifier. However, the anti-cracking properties of asphalt mixtures will be destroyed if the content of the composite modifier is too high. Therefore, it is necessary to balance the high and low temperature properties of asphalt mixtures when determining the dosage of composite modifiers in practical engineering. The results of this paper can provide a reference for the green application of waste-rubber-powder-modified bitumen.
Machine Learning Big Data Analysis of the Impact of Air Pollutants on Rhinitis-Related Hospital Visits
Authors: Lee Soyeon , Hyun Changwan , Lee Minhyeok
Published: August 2023

This study seeks to elucidate the intricate relationship between various air pollutants and the incidence of rhinitis in Seoul, South Korea, wherein it leveraged a vast repository of data and machine learning techniques. The dataset comprised more than 93 million hospital visits (n = 93,530,064) by rhinitis patients between 2013 and 2017. Daily atmospheric measurements were captured for six major pollutants: PM10, PM2.5, O3, NO2, CO, and SO2. We employed traditional correlation analyses alongside machine learning models, including the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), random forest (RF), and gradient boosting machine (GBM), to dissect the effects of these pollutants and the potential time lag in their symptom manifestation. Our analyses revealed that CO showed the strongest positive correlation with hospital visits across all three categories, with a notable significance in the 4-day lag analysis. NO2 also exhibited a substantial positive association, particularly with outpatient visits and hospital admissions and especially in the 4-day lag analysis. Interestingly, O3 demonstrated mixed results. Both PM10 and PM2.5 showed significant correlations with the different types of hospital visits, thus underlining their potential to exacerbate rhinitis symptoms. This study thus underscores the deleterious impacts of air pollution on respiratory health, thereby highlighting the importance of reducing pollutant levels and developing strategies to minimize rhinitis-related hospital visits. Further research considering other environmental factors and individual patient characteristics will enhance our understanding of these intricate dynamics.
The EU’s Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFAS) Ban: A Case of Policy over Science
Authors: Spyrakis Francesca , Dragani Tommaso A.
Published: August 2023

The proposal by the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) to ban over 12,000 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) has sparked a debate about potential consequences for the economy, industry, and the environment. Although some PFAS are known to be harmful, a blanket ban may lead to significant problems in attempting to replace PFAS-based materials for environmental transition, as well as in medical devices and everyday products. Alternative materials may potentially be less safe, as a rush to replace PFAS would reduce the time needed for toxicological analyses. Studies have shown that PFAS exhibit a diverse range of mechanisms of action, biopersistence, and bioaccumulation potential, and should thus not be treated as a single group. This is particularly true for the class of fluoropolymers. A targeted approach that considers the specific risks and benefits of each chemical may be more effective. Moreover, the proposed ban may also have unintended consequences for the environment as PFAS use is also associated with benefits such as reducing greenhouse-gas emissions and improving energy efficiency. Policymakers must carefully weigh up the potential consequences before making a final decision on the ban.
Safety Assessment of an Oral Therapeutic Dose of Firocoxib on Healthy Horses
Authors: Araújo Renatha A. , Sales Nathali A. A. , Basile Roberta C. , Feringer-Junior Walter H. , Apparício Maricy , Ferraz Guilherme C. , Queiroz-Neto Antonio
Published: August 2023

Firocoxib is a non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug specifically formulated for veterinary medicine and selectively acts on inhibiting the cyclooxygenase 2 enzyme (COX-2). This study evaluated the possible adverse effects of administering oral therapeutic firocoxib on gastric mucosa, hematological parameters, coagulation cascade, and hepatic and renal biochemistry in healthy horses. Nine clinically healthy Arabian horses, approximately 9 years old, received 0.1 mg/kg of oral firocoxib for 14 days. The gastroscopic examination was conducted 1 day before starting treatment (D0) and two days after the last blood collection (D23). Venous blood samples were obtained for laboratory tests on day 1, immediately prior to the initiation of treatment (D1), after 7 and 14 days of treatment (D7 and D14), and 7 days after the conclusion of treatment (D21. No changes were found in the gastroscopic and hematological tests. Coagulation and serum biochemistry levels remain between these species’ average values. However, the increased activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT) and prothrombin time (PT) indicate reduced blood coagulation capacity, which contradicts the expected effect of treatment with selective COX-2 inhibitors, as these drugs theoretically promote coagulation. Administering firocoxib to horses is safe as it does not cause significant adverse reactions. Therefore, it is a suitable option for managing inflammatory conditions in these animals with attention to an unexpected adverse anti-coagulopathy effect, and further study is warranted.
La théorie de l’avantage collectif et les régions de Pareto
Authors: Frisch Ragnar
Published: August 2023

On welfare theory and pareto regions.

In the discussion of welfare problems the reasoning about optimality in the Paretian sense is not always carried through as carefully as one would wish. Two types of problems should be distinguished : the selection, and the realization, problems. In the first type we ask whether there exist points satisfying some preassigned set of obligatory or facultative conditions. If such points exist we may pick out one specific subset of points which we consider particularly desirable, or «good ». The consideration of Pareto conditions is an example of a principle by which to select such a subset. In the second type of problem, we ask whether there exists a regime that will lead to a point in the selected subset.

The distinction between these two types of problems brings out very forcibly the necessity of being fully aware of the significance of conditions'. Unless the conditions, under which the search for Pareto-optimal points is to take place, are explicitly indicated, the definition of a Pareto-optimal region has no sense.

A slipshod way of passing over the basic logical principle of the Pareto-optimal region seems to be the main cause for so' many of the unprecise and unwarranted reasons that have been given about the superiority of the regime of free competition : so far as the dimensionality (number of degrees of freedom ) of this region is concerned, the addition of constraints tends to reduce the content of the region. Bui when it comes to the volume of the region within its given dimensionality, the addition of constraints tends to widen the region. This fad is of fundamental importance for the whole of welfare analysis.

For a point to be Pareto-optimal under the (obligatory) production constraint (given e. g. by the limitation of natural resources and the technical situation ), it must have the marginal preferences proportional for all the individuals and proportional to marginal costs. The next question is to indicate a regime or class of regimes that will achieve this goal. The result attained consists in asserting that certain regimes do not satisfy certain optimality criteria which would seem to be Such that we must accept them. In other words Pareto-opiimality is a principle of negation, not one of affir¬ mation : once the obligatory conditions are expressed we are led to formulate the criterion that no regime can be accepted as satisfactory if it is not Pareto-optimal under the obligatory constraints. In general there will be a whole class of regimes which are thus optimal. Here is where the spectrum of social value judgements comes in. (A great many examples illustrate both the selection and the realization problems in the article.)

In conclusion it must be said that Pareto has not established any mathematical proof of a general proposition that free competition produces maximum satisfaction. What he has done is only to give a particular sort of definition of maximum satisfaction.
Oligopole et progrès technique
Authors: Denis Henri
Published: August 2023

Oligopoly and technical progress

Analysis of the rules adopted in practice for the replacement of machines brings out the essential role played in this field by the rate of profit considered by the firm to be normal.

The most recent enquiries show that this profit rate is notably higher than elsewhere in those firms which benefit from a monopolistic situation. It must, therefore, be admitted that the development of monopolies brings about an increase in the level of profitability demanded from new investments, an increase which slows down technical progress.

The opposite view, expressed by Josef Schumpeter, rests upon a superficial view of the historical evolution of capitalism. It is possible that, at the beginning of the 20 th. century, the creation of monopolies did make it possible to resist the general decline of the rate of profit, a stagnation factor. But after a brief period of euphory, monopoly capitalism cannot fail to be threatened once again with stagnation.
La Compagnie hollandaise des Indes orientales
Authors: Coornaert Émile
Published: August 2023

The dutch East Indies company

The chartered companies were the essential instruments of the opening up of the underdeveloped countries by the white races of Western Europe during the 17 th. and 18 th. centuries. They brought together the activities and interests of individuals and states , the latter being everywhere in the process of formation. The Dutch East Indies Company was a model envied and imitated by all the countries capable of expansion.

The Company's privileges made it a state within the state. In the distant possessions it enjoyed many of the prerogatives of sovereignty.

The complex constitution of the Company reconciled the principles of unity and decentralization due to its immediate history and a ingrained municipal tradition.

The Company only gradually acquired a permanent capital and its example illustrates the transition from the traditional corporations to the limited liability companies.

The empirical administration of the company gives an idea of the rough and ready methods still persisting in commercial organizations — for the formation of companies, for financial control and for relationships with distant countries.

Socially, the Company gradually became the field of action of a small class. The abuses of that class allowed the state, now more firmly established, to replace its inefficient administration by its own.
La politique monétaire d'après-guerre aux Pays-Bas
Authors: Triffin Robert
Published: August 2023

After the war, Holland was left with a problem of reconstruction which, in the field of monetary policy was aggravated by the existence of excessive liquidities in the hands of the public. During 1945 and 1946 , the authorities were only partly successful in dealing with these liquidities by means of blocked accounts and the continuation of wage and price controls.

From 1947 to 1950, with the coming of Marshall aid, recovery was rapid but the equilibrium attained in the fields of prices, production and foreign trade was disturbed by the wave of speculative buying, financed largely by unabsorbed liquidities, which followed the outbreak of the Korean war. Never¬ theless, from 1951 to 1954 Holland achieved a rapid rate of recovery and the resulting export surplus led to a rapid increase in official reserves. The latter, in turn, made it possible, during 1954, to allow internal consumption to increase and the external surplus to diminish.

The events of the period 1950 to 1954 are analysed in terms of the varia¬ tions between real and monetary investment and are related to the excess liqui¬ dity of the money market in 1950 and to the absorption of excess liquidities in subsequent years.

The analysis of the methods of financing, in 1950 and 1951, the gap between national production and total expenditure for consumption and investment, and from 1952 to 1954, the, even larger, surpluses of production over expenditure, shows how yearly fluctuations were influenced by decisions beyond the direct control of the monetary authorities. Particularly important were the decisions to reduce liquid assets in 1950 for speculative purchases and the decisions, after 1950, to build up liquidities to a normal level.

The role of the public authorities was important, nevertheless, in the spec¬ tacular recovery after 1951, in the field of economic policy in general and mone¬ tary policy in particular. The excellence of Dutch economic and monetary statistics, and the high degree of integration between the two, makes it possible to determine with considerable precision the major features of the evolution of the economy during the postwar years.
Le marché monétaire de New York et sa subordination au marché de Londres au cours du XIXe siècle et jusqu'à 1914
Authors: Niveau Maurice
Published: August 2023

Whereas the Rank of England has always played an important part in the evolution and functioning of the City, the development of the New York money market was, until the introduction of the Federal Reserve System in 1913, considerably hampered by the absence of a central banking system. The resulting absence of a discount market and the lack of an acceptance market such as the London one, increased New York’s dependence on the City of London. The American call-loan market encouraged speculation on a large scale, which only aggravated the situation in times of crisis. Moreover, the American economy depended largely on foreign capital for its development and at the end of the 19th century over 75 % of foreign investment in the United States was British. In times of crisis at home or when economic difficulties in America caused a lack of confidence abroad, the United Kingdom withdrew her capital, thus endangering the economic equilibrium of the debtor country — hence the financial crises of 1837-9, 1866 and 1890. This was contrary to the classical theory of international economic equilibrium. An increase in the rate of interest in New York could do little to re-establish the balance of American payments. The United States did not begin to invest capital abroad until 1895 and from then on was gradually able to liberate itself from London’s domination. But for some time to come, the development of New York as an international monetary centre was impeded by the fundamental weaknesses of its financial structure.
Convertibilité monétaire et intégration économique en Europe occidentale
Authors: Triffin Robert
Published: August 2023

The return to convertibility and regional economic integration in western Europe

The vanishing of the world dollar gap and the large surpluses currently accumulated by Western Europe constitute a most favourable environment for a return to currency convertibility. The weak spot remains , however, the United Kingdom. Although that country seems now to have abandoned the policy of a unilateral return to convertibility for the pound, it has not clearly defined its attitude towards a regional approach to convertibility.

The maintenance of international convertibility, once restored, will depend primarily on the national policies to be followed in the future by the major trading countries. Its successful operation, however, will require in addition some further strengthening and improvements of the regional and international institutions and agreements governing trade and payments relations among independent countries in an interdependent world.

Despite the importance of the United States in world production and trade, the main threat to the maintenance of convertibility by the European countries lies in their own policies rather than those of the United States. Balance of payments pressures are overwhelmingly dominated in Western Europe by mutual trade between countries in that area rather than by fluctuations in their exports to the United States or to the other non-EPU countries.

There can be no doubt as to the role played by the OEEC-EPU system in the progress of Western Europe towards convertibility and trade liberalization. The choice is now between its integration within the framework of a modernized definition of convertibility or its abandonment as an essential step towards the restoration of worldwide convertibility. In this respect the European Monetary agreement has succeeded in reconciling these two divergent views although the agreement marks, in some respects, a retrogression with respect to the EPU system. These shortcomings illustrate the limitations placed upon OEEC by British reluctance to associate the United Kingdom too closely with Europe. But closer association with Europe by the United Kingdom and other Commonwealth countries may
La croissance du capital en U.R.S.S. Essai de confrontation critique
Authors: Rubel Maximilien
Published: August 2023

Growth of capital in the ussr a critical confrontation.

The official theory of the growth of the Soviet economy is compared with the realities of that growth.

Socialist production is said to conform to the law of maximum satisfaction of the material and cultural needs of the population. The growth of production derives from socialist accumulation, the latter being necessary to increase the means of production at the disposition of the working class. But it is striking to find that present day theory in the USSR does not use at all the term «capital». The author reviews the major theoretical positions adopted in the USSR from Lenin to the recent Manual of Political Economy. Finally, it would seem that the theory of socialist accumulation still derives, for its essentials, from Lenin : i. e. socialisis prepared by invitation of capitalism. The bulwark against abuses in this system is the power of the working class.

The author finds that the reality of economic growth in the USSR reveals the existence of two basic characteristics : a pure state of capitalism and masked slavery. Neither of these characteristics is the result of chance but of the Union of American technics and an infrastructure made up of an invest peasant mass. They have led to a separation of the labour force and owner ship of the means of production, on the one hand, and national economic planning, on ther other.
La théorie de la répartition
Authors: Robinson Joan
Published: August 2023

The theory of distribution.

The present state of the theory of distribution is unsatisfactory as its component parts are not integrated into a coherent whole.

The first part of the article deals with the short-period distribution problem. It is found that with given propensities to consume and to invest, a certain level of profit margins exists which is compatible with full employment. In this situation, the share of wages lends to be lower the higher the level of investment and the lower the ihriftiness of rentiers. However, full-employment without inflation is attained only if there exists adequate capacity and if the degree of monopoly and the stale of bargaining power have accommodated themselves to the other conditions in such a way as to establish full employ¬ ment. When they have failed to set profit margins at the right level there is either unemployment or inflationary pressure.

The second part deals with a situation of comparative statics with different stocks of capital and a given rale of net investment. Here it is found that the operative forces are : the amount of previous accumulation ; the technical conditions of substitutability of factors ; the pattern of demand-lhese three factors determining the amount and the form of productive capacity ; the interplay of monopoly and bargaining power which governs the level of utilisation of productive capacity ; the propensities to consume and the rate of investment which govern the shares of wages and profits.

Finally, the dynamic case is examined and the relative influences of technical progress, the rale of accumulation the growth of population and the degree of entrepreneurs' animal spirits are included in the analysis. In this way it is found possible to group together the various parts of distribution theory.
Quelques remarques sur une théorie du comportement
Authors: Barankin Edward William
Published: August 2023

Some general implications of the theory of behavior currently under investigation by the author are briefly discussed, with particular reference to the subject of this volume.
Au sujet de l’utilité et de la limitation de l’emploi du calcul des probabilités en économie politique
Authors: Gini Corrado
Published: August 2023

Objective and subject probability should not be rigidly opposed for the two notions on which they are built (degree of confidence in, and frequency of, a future event) are indissolubly linked together. Another unnecessary complication is the distinction between rational and irrational probabilities. As regards the use of probabilities in economics, the author feels that, not only have the difficulties of their use been exaggerated, but that economists are always using probability concepts, even unconsciously. Nevertheless, it is an error, even comitted by econometricians, to think that it is necessary to apply elaborate probability calculations to all types of probability met with in economics.
Quelques résultats marquants des enquêtes américaines sur les anticipations des entrepreneurs
Authors: Bowman M. J.
Published: August 2023

The author presents a survey and critical appreciation of recent attempts in, the United Stales to evaluate the use of expedational and probability data for business forecasliny. The author concludes that expectation surveys have big possibilities though, as yet, they are in their infancy. Perhaps more important than their use in business forecasting, will be the possibilities, opened up by these inquiries, for the integration of empirical and theoretical economics.
Stabilité et progrès : le problème des pays riches
Authors: Robertson Dennis H. ,   Association internationale des sciences économiques
Published: August 2023

Stability and progress :

the richer countries’ problem

There is considerable difficulty in defining precisely the rate of growth desired by a country and the means to achieve it. Elements of a solution may be sought in the demographic pattern , the kinds of improvement which are desired , the volume of investment necessary to increase output.

The obstacles which may prevent, or slow up, a rise in living standards seem to be the following. The volume of saving consented by the community may be inadequate. It should not be assumed however, that government and corporate savings are wholly satisfactory substitutes nor that, today, inflation is a net creator of savings. It is necessary to underline the constraint which savings habits and desires should impose upon investment and growth. The smooth progress of growth capital would also be facilitated by a return of the risk element in the investment of savings.

As regards short-term fluctuations the influence of indivisible investments, the presence of imbalance both vertically and horizontally, in production structures, and alternate moods of optimism and pessimism remain fundamental. But it must be recalled that instability and unequal rates of growth as between the richer countries may arise and be unamenable to monetary action. In which case some international comprehension of the problems of other countries is necessary.