bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
PORTFOLIO EVALUATION & RE‐EVALUATION: AN EXPERIMENT IN SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY, MAN‐MACHINE LEARNING AND DECISION MAKING
Authors: KROLAK PATRICK D.
Published: June 2007

In order to bring home to management science students a proper overview of the field, the author undertakes the investigation of real world problems using the methods of systems analysis and operations research. This paper will describe the results of one such investigation. In addition to describing the classroom experiment, a model for speculative stock market investment will be developed. Finally, a simulation model for reviewing investor performance will be outlined.
SIMULATION EXPLORATION OF THE POWER OF MARGINAL REGRESSION ANALYSIS*
Authors: ELLIOTT JAN WALTER , SOELBERG PEER
Published: June 2007

In either simple or multivariate regression models, measured coefficients represent a kind of average of co‐variant relationships implicit in the data. For time‐series data, if co‐variant relationships follow no particular pattern over the sample period, use of this average in forecasting is rational. However, if relationships among independent and dependent variables is undergoing change over time, then measured regression coefficients are likely to be poor tools for prediction. This paper is an exploratory study of this general problem area. It develops implications as to the predictive impact of the problem and offers preliminary suggestions as to a method of developing predictions under such circumstances.
A TEST FOR THE DETECTION OF A POISSON PROCESS
Authors: REINMUTH JAMES E.
Published: June 2007

A statistical test is presented to detect the presence of a Poisson input source into a queueing system. The fact that the arrival times of a Poisson input source are distributed independently and uniformly over time is used in conjunction with the central limit theorem to develop a test, based on the sum of the arrival times over a given interval of time, for the hypothesis that an input source into a queueing system is Poisson. Failure to reject this hypothesis gives one an extra degree of assurance that traditional queueing models assuming a Poisson input are applicable.
AIR QUALITY CONTROL MODEL COMBINING DATA ON MORBIDITY AND POLLUTION ABATEMENT*
Authors: KOHN ROBERT E. , BURLINGAME DONALD E.
Published: June 2007

A pollution damage function is developed, using data from a study on the sensitivity of morbidity to ambient air concentrations of individual pollutants. This function is used in a model which incorporates the costs and technology for pollution abatement in the St. Louis Airshed. A set of air quality standards is determined which minimizes morbidity subject to a given control budget constraint. The results indicate that there should be a greater reduction of the pollutants associated with stationary sources than of those characteristic of the automobile.
DEFINING THE ROLE AND ESTIMATION OF THE DISCOUNT FACTOR IN A SECURITY VALUATION MODEL
Authors: KURATANI YOSHIRO , BECHTOLD J. E. , MANTEL SAMUEL J.
Published: June 2007

In this paper we show that a striking improvement in the explanatory power of a “dividend type” of security valuation model can be obtained by classifying companies into equivalent risk categories, estimating the discount factor for a category, and then constructing a cross‐sectional model for it. The increased homogenity of the data base improves the model's sensitivity to systematic forces, but does not sacrifice the heterogeneity of the independent variables.

Assuming that the difference between the intrinsic value of a security and its market value should be zero, the authors demonstrate a method for estimating kjt, the market discount rate for the jth risk category in the tth period. The results of the estimation procedure appear to be reasonable and when used in our security valuation model they produce higher coefficients of determination (R2) than those previously published for similar models.
A DECISION THEORETIC APPROACH TO PRICING
Authors: BRAVERMAN JEROME D.
Published: June 2007

The problem of price determination and revision is considered as a case of decision making under uncertainty in which profit is to be maximized. Typically price is a simple function of cost which in turn determines the quantity which will be demanded. This paper proposes that maximum profits could be realized in the long run, if a quantity corresponding to the lowest cost per unit of product under the attendant circumstances was fixed and a price established at which demand would exactly equal the fixed quantity. It further suggests a theoretical approach to the determination of this price based on decision theory. The decision theoretic approach considers the set of possible price levels at which demand will equal the fixed quantity of product as the state of nature. The set of acts consist of the establishment of the product price at each of the possible levels. After an initial price is established, empirical information can then be utilized according to some optimal decision rule for subsequent price revisions.
THE IMPACT OF TAX POLICY ON INVESTMENT BEHAVIOR IN THE CHEMICAL INDUSTRY, 1951‐65
Authors: PITTS JAMES E. , III WILLIAM M. WHITAKER
Published: June 2007

The purpose of this study was to estimate the impact of changes in Federal tax policy on investment behavior in the chemicals and allied products industry and to examine the possibility of a differential impact of changes in tax policy on investment behavior in manufacturing industries. The impact of changes in tax policy on investment behavior in the chemical and allied products industry was estimated and compared with the impact of tax policy on investment behavior in total manufacturing found in earlier studies. The model used to estimate the impact of changes in tax policy on investment behavior in the chemicals and allied products industry was the neo‐classical model of capital accumulation as formulated initially by Dale Jorgenson.

The conclusions reached were that changes in tax policy have had a measurable impact on investment behavior in the chemical and allied products industry which was greater as a percentage of gross investment than that found on total manufacturing in earlier studies.
APPLICATIONS OF SPECTRAL ANALYSIS
Authors: SOVEREIGN MICHAEL G. , NOLAN RICHARD L. , MANDEL JAMES P.
Published: June 2007

The basic concepts and application of spectral analysis are explained. Stationary time series and autocorrelation are first defined. Autocorrelation is related to the familiar concepts of variance and covariance. The use of autocorrelation analysis is explained in estimating the interdependent relationship of a time series over discrete time lags. In order to measure the behavior of the time series using autocorrelation, it would be necessary to examine a very large number of autocorrelation lags. Alternatively, the technique of Fourier analysis can be used to transform the autocorrelation function of the time series into a continuous function, termed a spectrum. The spectrum has a one to one correspondence to the autocorrelation for the time series and has the advantage of representing all possible autocorrelations over the discrete time lags. The spectrum can then be examined as a measure of the behavior of the time series. Spectral analysis indicates the reliability of the analysis of autocorrelated variables when familiar statistical techniques such as sample means and variances are used.

The application of spectral analysis to management science problems in three general areas is illustrated: (1) inventory demand, (2) transportation simulation, and (3) stock market price behavior. Spectral analysis was used to detect cycles and trends in the data. Analyses were focused on the spectrum which provides a measure of the relative contribution of cycles in a band of frequencies to the total variance of the data.
ON THE EQUIVALENCE OF TWO VERSIONS OF THE PRESENT VALUE PROCEDURE
Authors: SILVER EDWARD A.
Published: June 2007

The central issue in equipment investment analysis is the selection of the best of two or more alternatives. A common procedure is to first assume that for each alternative there is an infinite stream of identical pieces of equipment. The present value of the associated infinite stream of revenues and costs is calculated. Then the alternative having the highest present value (where revenues are positive and costs are negative) is selected. The assumption of the infinite stream, though computationally desirable, is not very palatable to the decision maker. In this paper we show that the above procedure is equivalent to using a criterion which is definitely more appealing. The author has found this “equivalence” result to be helpful in teaching the basic concepts of the present value procedure. Also the result should be of interest to practitioners involved in equipment investment decision making.
A STRUCTURED APPROACH FOR CASE METHODOLOGY IN THE BUSINESS POLICY COURSE*
Authors: ENRICK NORBERT L. , MYERS BUDDY L.
Published: June 2007

Effective use of case materials in the business policy course is facilitated by a variety of techniques available today. The structured approach seeks to supplement and enlarge this arsenal of methods and philosophies.

Structuring begins with an articulation of management's goals, followed by a definition of the specific problems and objectives to be attained. Wherever possible, relations are expressed in the form of mathematical models, followed by appropriate evaluations. The path towards a solution depends on whether a satisficing or an optimizing philosophy pervades the organization, as well as the approach feasible in a particular instance. Next, ways and means are investigated to implement the alternative solutions in such a way as to achieve the results envisioned. Provision for feedback is required, whereby accomplishments are checked against objectives, and corrective action is sought whenever such is needed.

An illustrative example demonstrates how the approach is utilized. Finally, we examine the relation of structured evaluation of case materials to the manner in which problem solving occurs in actual business situations.
THE THEORY OF GRAPHS IN BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE*
Authors: TAPIERO CHARLES S.
Published: June 2007

In this tutorial the author shows how graph theory can be used to model the structural relationships in a behavioral theory. The baśic elements of a graph and its related matrices are defined and illustrated. A survey of applications of graph theory in behavioral science is followed by an extensive bibliography.
A FRAMEWORK FOR THE SYSTEM DESIGN PROCESS1
Authors: NUGENT CHRISTOPHER E. , VOLLMANN THOMAS E.
Published: June 2007

Much discussion and writing about “systems” is often superficial, glib, and of a non‐operational nature. This paper presents a cohesive framework for the process of system design which is felt to be of operational value in the design and management of systems.

The framework's central tenet is that all systems are made up of entities and the relationships among the attributes of those entities; and that in designing systems, two processes are used, inclusion and structuring. Inclusion is concerned with what entities to include in a system and structuring with how their attributes are to be related. The system design process is directed or driven by a set (system) of criteria. Systems must be viewed with a time dimension: evolution will and should take place, both in the systems themselves and, more importantly, in the criteria that drive the design and evolution of those systems. In this framework, all problem solvers can usefully regard themselves as system designers.

Presentation of the framework is followed by examples, discussion of the criteria set, system design tools, and some implications for teachers and practitioners.
EMPIRICAL UTILITY FUNCTIONS AND RANDOM DEVICES: AN EXPERIMENT
Authors: DYCKMAN THOMAS R. , SALOMON ROBERTO
Published: June 2007

The primary purpose of the present experiment was to examine the effects on the empirical derivation of executive's utility functions caused by the use of random device analogues. The results indicate that utility functions obtained using a random device analogue imply more risk aversion than when these functions are determined by simulating actual decision situations. Furthermore, there is also evidence that the bias is directly related to the monetary amounts involved.
MARKOV PROCESS AND CREDIT COLLECTION POLICY*
Authors: MEHTA DILEEP
Published: June 2007

This paper deals with the evaluation of credit collection policy alternatives, given the credit granting function. Credit collection policy determines the intensity of collection efforts and the timing for recognition of bad debts. The Markov Process is utilized to estimate dynamic cash flow behavior for available policy alternatives. For this purpose, both transient and steady‐state components of cash‐flow behavior are considered. Operational guidelines are outlined with the help of a single example. The strength of the proposed model stems from its a) consistency with the conventional capital budgeting process, b) modest input data requirements, and c) expediency in obtaining results.
THE USE OF FORECAST ERROR MEASURES AS SURROGATES FOR AN ERROR COST CRITERION IN THE PRODUCTION SMOOTHING PROBLEM
Authors: CHENTNIK CHESTER G.
Published: June 2007

This paper presents research on the problem of selecting a proper surrogate for a forecast error cost criterion in the production smoothing problem. Various forecast models estimated future selected demand process values. Resultant error costs were computed and the coincidence of the selection of a forecast model on the basis of least error cost and the various error measures was noted. The error measures used were the mean absolute deviation, average algebraic error(bias), and the mean squared error. Computations necessary to develop the mathematical form of the error cost criterion are presented in an Appendix. Also presented are the penalty costs of using an error measure as a surrogate for an error cost criterion.
ON LEAD TIME DEMAND DISTRIBUTIONS
Authors: McFADDEN FRED R.
Published: June 2007

A key factor in establishing inventory policy for an item is the procurement lead time demand distribution (LTDD). Demand during lead time is a random variable if at least one of the components‐length of lead time, order intensity, and order size‐is a random variable. This paper discusses the problem of estimating the functional form of the LTDD for various combinations of the component random variables, using the method of generating functions. Since a normal approximation will often be used in practice, expressions are also given for the mean and variance of the LTDD for the various cases.
A POSITIVE DYNAMIC APPROACH TO INDUSTRIAL DECISION‐MAKING PROCESSES
Authors: Abe Masatoshi A.
Published: June 2007

This paper proposes and tests a decision‐making process of entrepreneurs. History of many industries shows that rapid changes in technology, accompanied by large investments and accumulations of capital occur. One production method is replaced by another as newer cost reducing techniques become available. It seems that the fate of any particular production technique can be better understood in the context of such dynamic factors as changes in technical knowledge, factor prices, demand composition together with decision‐making process of the entrepreneurs.

A recursive programming technique is presented that reflects the fact that entrepreneurial decisions are conditioned by interaction between technical, economic, and non‐economic factors. Recursive programming technique is a recent addition to the inventory of decision‐making analysis. This method is applied to the Japanese Iron and Steel Industry. Results suggest that this technique is a very promising tool of decision‐making analysis.
DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL NUMBER OF BID SOLICITATIONS1
Authors: Rados David L.
Published: June 2007

This paper analyzes three simple search models, in which a buyer with full knowledge of the distribution of market prices searches for a low price. He continues his search until the cost of further search exceeds the expected savings resulting from the further search. The implications of these models are also discussed.
PRODUCT LINE AND INVENTORY STRATEGY
Authors: Howard Keith , Schary Philip B.
Published: June 2007

The problem of optimal variety in inventory heretofore has been approached on an individual item basis. This paper demonstrates the analysis of aggregate inventory through the use of the log‐normal distribution. The theory and application of this distribution to inventory problems are reviewed. This distribution is then applied to the problem of optimal variety, measuring the impact on sales and cost of deletion of slow‐moving items in order to determine the optimal assortment for profitability. This then leads to analysis of optimal margin determination for slow‐moving items. The final part of the discussion deals with inventory characteristics of the distribution channel, utilizing the characteristics of the log‐normal distribution.
Quantitative Theory, Methodology and Technique
Authors: Willis Raymond E.
Published: June 2007

In hypothesis testing, the level of significance, α, often performs a screening as well as an evaluating function. Results which are not “significant” at some preset value of α are simply not reported. Unfortunately, this value of α is usually arbitrarily set at .05 or .01 and bears no relation to the needs of potential users of the study. This paper suggests an approach to making the selection of α more responsive to these potential applications.
Functional and Behavioral Application
Authors: Holloman Charles R. , Hendrick Hal W.
Published: June 2007

This study investigated the influence of status and ability differences upon the quality of group problem solving. Participants in eight sections (N = 113) of an advanced leadership course ranked each other in terms of perceived influence exercised within their section. Each section was then selectively subdivided into groups of five to seven members each. On a problem‐solving task, the ability of high‐status members to influence other group members was significantly greater (p < .01) when those persons, immediately below them in the status hierarchy of their section were not with them in the problem‐solving group.
Functional and Behavioral Application
Authors: Lehmann Donald R.
Published: June 2007

This paper presents a model for explaining preference among similar alternatives. Preference is hypothesized to be governed by the relative position of the alternatives on specific dimensions (attributes). More specifically, preference is stated to be related to the distance of an alternative from an ideal alternative. A summary of a test of the model is presented.

Next, a probabilistic form of the model is obtained assuming that the measured distance is affected both by individual uncertainty and measurement error. For a particular case, the resulting normality of the distribution is demonstrated. This introduction of a random element into the model is seen to be a major advance, although final judgment must await extensive testing.
Curricula and State of the Profession
Authors: Kahl Alfred L. , Zimmer Robert K.
Published: June 2007

Most of us have encountered problems in developing an effective quantitative analysis program for our business schools in the United States. We have often found managers very reluctant to adopt QA techniques; on the other hand, students, although not reluctant, lacked the necessary mathematical background.

During the academic year 1970–71, the authors assisted in the development of a QA department in the business school of a developing nation which offers both resident coursework for graduate students and executives seminars for businessmen. Both the students and the executives had the necessary mathematical background for rapid understanding of QA techniques. The executives appeared eager to use QA in their business operations and the students were highly motivated toward the application of QA to business problems.

Our purpose in this article is not to convince all the QA professors to teach in underdeveloped nations, but to furnish information which is likely to be useful to those who attempt to establish similar QA programs in other developing countries.
Curricula and State of the Profession
Authors: Scott Richard A.
Published: June 2007

The business simulation provides an interesting opportunity for incorporating quantitative methods and techniques into marketing management courses. The simulation model can be used to generate a realistic data bank of information on the costs and results of the firm's marketing efforts. Rather than beginning without a history of company operations and results, the simulation becomes an ongoing one where student managers employ data from past simulated operations as inputs to quantitative analyses to support current decisions. Meaningful data is provided in a context that encourages student learning and discovery of the benefits and limitations of decision science techniques.
AN APPLICATION OF QUEUING THEORY TO A CONGESTION PROBLEM IN AN OUTPATIENT CLINIC*
Authors: Keller T. F. , Laughhunn D. J.
Published: June 2007

The purpose of this paper is to discuss an application of queuing theory as an analytical framework for evaluating the adequacy of physician capacity in an outpatient clinic for medically indigent patients. Specific attention is given to the problems of parameter estimation including service and waiting cost. A method is also discussed whereby the relationship of physician cost and patient waiting cost may be imputed after the fact from observation of actual clinic operations.
AN APPROACH TO COST—VOLUME—PROFIT ANALYSIS UNDER UNCERTAINTY*
Authors: Jarrett Jeffrey E.
Published: June 2007

Cost‐Volume‐Profit analysis is a tool of cost accountants aiding in the choice of an optimal course of action in the solution of a managerial problem. C‐V‐P is a limited analysis since all the needs of management in determining the optimal strategy are not fulfilled. Factors pertinent to the choice of the optimal strategy under uncertainty are variables, although traditional C‐V‐P treats these factors as constants. Hence, an approach to C‐V‐P where pertinent factors necessary for decision making are considered as variables is more desirable than traditional C‐V‐P.

By introducing uncertainty, it is also beneficial to broaden C‐V‐P to fulfill the following desire of management. Should management choose a course of action based only on its own estimates of the decision parameters or is it advisable to postpone a terminal decision until additional research into the decision parameters is accomplished? Broadened C‐V‐P solves this problem with the aid of Bayesian Decision Theory for the choice of the optimal course of action in the face of uncertainty.
ADMISSION STANDARDS FOR GRADUATE STUDY IN MANAGEMENT
Authors: Gayle John B. , Jones Troy H.
Published: June 2007

This paper reports the results of a study undertaken to evaluate the validity of requirements for admission to Florida State University's Graduate Program in Management offered by its School of Business in the Cape Kennedy Area of Florida.

A multiple regression study was made using as independent variables students' undergraduate grade point average (UGPA), Graduate Record Examination aptitude test score (GRE), and age (AGE) at time of admission. The dependent variable was graduate grade point average (GGPA).

The study revealed a significant positive correlation between GRE and GGPA. The correlation between AGE and GGPA was also significant but was positive for values of AGE up to approximately 29 and negative thereafter. UGPA was not even marginally significant.
A COMPUTER SIMULATION MODEL OF AN INDUSTRIAL WORK GROUP
Authors: Brightman Harvey J. , Kaczka Eugene E.
Published: June 2007

The paper illustrates the desirability and feasibility of the computer simulation technique in socio‐psychological research. A computer simulation model of a five‐man industrial work group is constructed. After the model has successfully passed a two stage validation procedure, an experimentation phase is conducted. In a 2 times 3 replicated factorial experiment, five years of simulated weekly data is used to test several hypotheses which relate the independent variables–supervisory style and worker interpersonal orientation–to productivity, worker job satisfaction and group cohesiveness. The hypotheses were derived from the findings of prior short‐lived laboratory and field research. The study indicates that the computer simulation approach is a valuable adjunct to the classical organizational research techniques.
PERFORMANCE OF THE EXPECTED UTILITY METHOD AND TWO OTHER NORMATIVE METHODS IN INSURANCE DECISION MAKING*
Authors: Neter John , Williams C. Arthur
Published: June 2007

In an experiment, thirty‐six professional insurance men employed the utility method, the worry method, and the comparison method in two insurance problems to determine the appropriate insurance coverage. It was found that the best act with the utility method almost always was no insurance, whereas the best act with the other two methods tended to be complete insurance. The utility method best act rarely agreed with the subject's actual preferred act, while the comparison method best act usually was the same or almost the same as the actual preferred act. While the worry method suggests that the subjects typically are risk averse, the utility functions obtained tend to show that the subjects typically are not risk averse.
OPTIMAL PLANNING: THE USE OF SALES FORECASTS
Authors: Childress Robert L.
Published: June 2007

Budgets are established and decisions in a firm are made on the basis of the sales forecast. In the majority of firms this forecast is a single value estimate of sales. The decisions made on the basis of the single value estimate frequently fall short of optimal strategies because of costs that occur when actual sales differ from forecast sales. These costs, measured in terms of opportunity losses, can be minimized when considered in conjunction with a probability distribution of sales.

Three methods for determining the probability distribution of sales are considered in this paper. These are regression analysis Schlaifer's approach for establishing a subjective distribution, and Bayesian regression. The use of the distribution in conjunction with linear and quadratic loss functions is illustrated.
USING FISHBURN'S TECHNIQUES FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION TREES: SOME EXAMPLES*
Authors: Barron F. Hutton
Published: June 2007

Techniques for the analysis of payoff matrices with “imprecise” assessment of state probabilities are applied to the analysis of decision trees in normal form. The analytical techniques, due to Peter Fishburn, are summarized and then illustrated by analyzing two decision trees. Problem I, a two state problem, provides geometrical analogs for the two most “imprecise” probability assessments and simple analytical and geometrical analogs for the least “imprecise” probability assessment. Problem II, a three state problem, illustrates the application of all four precision levels, from most “imprecise” through least “imprecise.”
THE USES OF BUSINESS GAMING IN EDUCATION AND LABORATORY RESEARCH*
Authors: Rowland Kendrith M. , Gardner David M.
Published: June 2007

This paper reports an empirical investigation of business gaming in education and research. Subjects were approximately 200 junior and senior undergraduate students who were assigned to seven‐man teams on the basis of scores on the Least Preferred Co‐worker (LPC) leadership style questionnaire, and who played the Marksim business game during one academic semester. Relationships were explored between post‐game perceptions of the game, team atmosphere and the leader, combinations of congruent and incongruent leadership styles, and measures of team performance. Also explored were relationships between several predictor variables (including grade point average) and measures of team performance.

The results were generally disappointing in regard to business gaming as an educational tool. However, it seems that business gaming may hold promise for laboratory research in the behavioral sciences. The results of this investigation suggest that relationship‐oriented and task‐oriented leadership styles and combinations of these styles within hierarchically structured groups affect members' perceptions of the task and other aspects of the task environment but do not affect group performance, at least directly. These results may have significance for those interested in organizational design and the selection and development of leaders for first and second‐level managerial positions.
COMPUTER APPLICATIONS IN TEACHING ECONOMETRICS
Authors: Kraft Arthur , Kraft John
Published: June 2007

In most econometrics courses the students are given limited exposure to the empirical applications of econometric theory. The use of canned programs would make it possible to cover more applied econometric work, and help prepare the students for more empirical work. The computer can be a valuable teaching aid for both instructor and student. The students will also gain valuable experience in the area of computer assisted data analysis.

This paper discusses many of the programs appropriate for use in econometrics courses. Examples of problems using programs, and several alternative outlines of possible courses in applied econometrics are presented.
CONCEPTS, THEORY, AND TECHNIQUE
Authors: Abernathy W. J. , Baloff N.
Published: June 2007

The problem of maintaining a balance between production output and demand growth during new product introductions is analyzed. In many cases, the introduction of a new product results in both rapid demand growth and significant changes in the production rate through‐out the startup period, during which productivity and product output increase significantly. It is demonstrated that, if these two phenomena are not estimated and used as a basis of closely coordinated planning between production and marketing, very large costs can be incurred – either lost sales and potential introduction failure related to stock out conditions caused by “underproduction” or excess inventory holding, obsolescence and opportunity costs when an over production imbalance occurs. Following a description of the problem examples are used to illustrate the benefits of increasing rigor in the joint planning of new product introductions. Finally, a general methodology based upon an heuristic pattern search algorithm is employed to provide an optimal solution to a multivariate planning example.
BOUNDS ON SAMPLE SIZE IN MODIFIED BERNOULLI SAMPLING, WITH APPLICATIONS IN OPINION SURVEYS
Authors: Beckwith Richard E.
Published: June 2007

Simple “yes or no” questions can be replaced in opinion surveys by equivalent questions involving k≥3 answer categories. Interpretation of these classifications as subjective probability levels leads to efficient survey designs, in the sense that high precision in the estimator of the population characteristic can be achieved with rather small sample sizes. Explicit formulae for bounds on sample size, obtained under several different philosophies, are given, together with illustrations.
APPLICATIONS OF SPECTRAL ANALYSIS: SOME FURTHER CONSIDERATIONS*
Authors: Smith V. Kerry , Marcis Richard G.
Published: June 2007

Increasing attention has focused in recent years on the use of spectral analytic techniques for the analysis of economic time series data. Sovereign, Nolan and Mandel [26] have recently outlined the basic concepts underlying such analysis and presented examples relating to the management science area including inventory demand, transportation simulation and stock market price behavior. The purpose of this paper is to supplement and extend their tutorial with a discussion of some of the problems involved with the application and interpretation of spectral statistics, emphasizing the problems of stationarity and detrending and data windows. Additionally, the scope of the examples is broadened to include applications in the area of monetary economics.

The first part of this paper presents a brief discussion of the objectives of spectral analysis. Since this paper attempts to extend the work of Sovereign, Nolan and Mandel, only a heuristic discussion of spectral techniques of analysis is presented. This is followed by a more detailed description of the problem of stationarity and the effects of detrending upon the interpretation of spectral results. Then we consider the problem of estimating a continuous curve with finite information and the implications of both of these problems by presenting several applied examples in the area of monetary economics. The concluding section of this paper briefly summarizes some additional considerations in harmonic analysis of economic time series data and notes some potential directions for future research.
A DYNAMIC PROGRAMMING MODEL FOR OPTIMAL ALLOCATION OF DECISION TIME
Authors: Shrode William A.
Published: June 2007

Recurrent decision making by a lower‐level manager can be viewed as a sequential decision process in which time and uncertainty are limiting factors. Under these conditions, the manager must determine how to best utilize his decision making time consistent with his own particular set of decision values. A dynamic programming model was devised to determine the optimal (consistent) allocation of decision time among five different types of problems for a sequence of simulated recurrent decision situations. Fifty‐one lower‐level managers were interviewed about their use of decision time and decision procedures. The model was validated by comparing model assumptions and results with the findings from the interviews. The model was used to determine the effects of variations in the levels of time available and uncertainty upon the optimal allocation of decision time.
FACTOR ANALYSIS APPLIED TO PREDICTORS OF INNOVATIVE BEHAVIOR
Authors: Ostlund Lyman E.
Published: June 2007

Studies concerning innovative behavior have applied many predictor variables, to the point where a purge to reduce redundancy now appears in order. Factor analysis with orthogonal varimax rotation was applied to product perception and demographic, socioeconomic, and predispositional variables in order to reduce their numbers without a significant loss of information. The derived rotated factors were then related by way of factor scores obtained from respondent data to a surrogate measure of innovative behavior using multiple regression equations. The resulting coefficients of determination, while smaller than those originally derived using all of the perceptual and predispositional variables individually, were not reduced by any massive amounts. Thus, the gain from reducing the number of predictor variables through the use of factor analysis seems to more than off‐set the modest reduction in explained variance. Moreover, the resulting factors and their item loadings suggest possible alternative predictor variables to those that have commonly been used in past studies concerning the diffusion of innovations.
PROFITABILITY IN BUYING PUTS AND CALLS
Authors: Hawkins Clark A. , Halonen Robert J.
Published: June 2007

It is a rather widely held view that a large majority of purchases of put and call options are unprofitable, and that the profit to be made is in writing the options. A number of authors have suggested that selling options can be a profitable adjunct to institutional portfolio management. The results of an analysis of variance factorial design of a random selection of options in various market trends, shows that only a slim majority of the options purchased would have been unprofitable. In addition, if one is able to forecast the market trend, a random selection of the proper type of options would yield a high return.
EFFECTS OF USE OF COMPUTER IN FIRST‐YEAR STATISTICS SEQUENCE ON STUDENT ATTITUDES*
Authors: Neter John , Chervany Norman
Published: June 2007

The use of computers in teaching statistics can make an impact upon students in two ways. First, it can affect the amount and rate of learning of statistics. Second, it can affect student attitudes toward computers, statistics and quantitative methods. This note reports a study on the effects of the computer in teaching statistics on student attitudes. The data are based on pre‐ and post‐course questionnaires administered in a first‐year statistics sequence. The results partly confirm expectations, and partly raise questions for further investigation.
A PRESENT VALUE FORMULATION OF THE CLASSICAL EOQ PROBLEM*
Authors: Trippi Robert R. , Lewin Donald E.
Published: June 2007

The usual analysis of the deterministic economic order quantity problem seeks to minimize the average cost of inventory ordering and holding costs per unit time. An alternative approach described in this paper examines the present value of discounted costs over an infinite horizon. Differences in the solutions and implications of errors using the two methodologies are discussed.
COMPARISON OF NURSE ALLOCATION POLICIES‐A MONTE CARLO MODEL*
Authors: Hershey John C. , Abernathy William J. , Baloff Nicholas
Published: June 2007

Many hospitals have historically used a fixed staffing policy for allocating nursing personnel, in which the daily demand in each ward is met by nurses who are permanently assigned to the specific wards. In recent years, the concept of variable staffing has been proposed as a means of increasing manpower efficiency. A variable staffing policy is one which provides for staffing adjustments to meet work load through the use of a common pool of cross‐trained nurses.

In this paper, a model is formulated to evaluate the relative benefits of variable and fixed staffing policies. Results from a Monte Carlo evaluation of the model demonstrate how the hospital administrator can assess the sensitivity of savings to changes in policy and operating parameters. Several criteria which an administrator might adopt for equating levels of patient care under alternative staffing schemes are suggested and studied. The proposed method of analyzing benefits of alternative allocation procedures shows promise for evaluating policy choices in hospitals, as well as other service organizations with similar characteristics.
RESIDENTIAL MORTGAGE RISK CHARACTERISTICS*
Authors: Bolten Steven E.
Published: June 2007

This paper applies discriminant analysis to a relatively large sample of residential mortgages‐some of which have defaulted or have been foreclosed and others of which have remained untroubled at least until the date of the last observation‐in an attempt to derive a function which would allow mortgage lenders to increase their accuracy of predicting mortgage difficulty.

From the data available for testing, no improvement in predictability is obtained, because it is thought that the data may already have been badly biased by the screening process of the loan officers which had already taken place and by the post‐loan origination nature of the important variables in mortgage difficulty. The latter is confirmed by discriminant models of post‐origination variables which are successful. It is concluded that changes in home value, changes in mortgagor income, mortgage assumption, and regional economic considerations are the major explanations of mortgage difficulty.
SOME ASPECTS OF THE DYNAMIC PROPERTIES OF ECONOMETRIC MODELS*
Authors: Smith V. Kerry
Published: June 2007

Recent efforts by several authors have resulted in the development of techniques for analytically describing the dynamic properties of linear stochastic difference equation models1. Since these techniques have not been extensively applied to econometric models and consequently are not generally familiar to economic modelers, the purpose of this paper is to summarize the techniques these researchers have developed and to illustrate them using a simple (and admittedly unrealistic) econometric model.
BEHAVIORAL OBJECTIVES AND THE QUANTITATIVE METHODS COURSE
Authors: Busch Paul , Wilson David T. , Dolich Ira J.
Published: June 2007

The topic of behavioral objectives has recently received considerable attention in the academic community. This paper contains a comprehensive overview of issues and explores the relevance of using the behavioral objective framework for teaching quantitative methods (QM) to undergraduate business administration students. Included in the paper are (1) a discussion of the nature and meaning of behavioral objectives, (2) arguments for and against their use, (3) a rationale for their use in a QM course, and (4) a series of examples demonstrating the use of behavioral objectives in a quantitative course. The evidence‐consisting of expert opinion from professionals who have successfully used behavioral objectives for teaching quantitative material, the logic of the arguments for behavioral objectives, consideration of arguments against objectives along with rebuttal to these arguments, and the available empirical studies‐indicates that behavioral objectives do appear to offer considerable potential for improving QM teaching. The use of behavioral objectives is worthy of thoughtful consideration by QM teachers.
A STRATEGY FOR INTEGRATING QUANTITATIVE TECHNIQUES INTO THE BUSINESS CURRICULUM*
Authors: Drake Albert E. , Van Matre Joseph G.
Published: June 2007

Quantitative methods courses play an increasingly significant role in the programs of Schools of Business. However, maximum utilization of the concepts can occur only when these quantitative techniques have been integrated into the various functional areas via a faculty knowledgeable with such techniques and their applications. Lacking sufficient stimuli, this integrative process is observed to be one of an evolutionary nature. This article presents a strategy for stimulation of this process.
A BAYESIAN APPROACH TO DISCRIMINATION AMONG ECONOMIC MODELS*
Authors: Wiginton John C.
Published: June 2007

Frequently, alternative theories are proposed as relevant models for an economic process. Which alternative is a relatively better representation is a question of fact, but empirical methods of resolving the issue have not been compelling. This study developes a technique for discrimination from Bayesian statistical theory. This technique can analyze an arbitrary number of alternatives simultaneously, and each alternative can be characterized by distribution theory appropriate to its structure. An example, the aggregate consumption function, is considered, and each alternative is characterized by the Normal regression process. The results may only be regarded as suggestive, as the parameterization of the structure may be incomplete on that assumption.
A METHOD FOR SOLVING LINEAR PROGRAMS WITH VARIABLE RESOURCES
Authors: Sweeney Dennis J. , Williams Thomas A.
Published: June 2007

This paper is concerned with the solution of linear and linear goal programming problems in which the values of the right‐hand side parameters are not fixed constants. Specifically, we are concerned with linear optimization problems in which the right‐hand sides of the constraining equations are free to vary subject to a set of linear constraining equations. By formulating a relaxed linear program wherein the right‐hand sides are treated as variables, we show how it is possible to solve one larger linear program that yields as a solution not only the optimal values for the decision variables, but also the optimal values for the right‐hand sides.
RELATIVISM AS A CULTURAL INFLUENCE ON TWENTIETH CENTURY DECISION MAKING
Authors: Chiattello Marion L. , Waller Robert J.
Published: June 2007

Culturally determined norms are seen as guides to the subjective components in the decision process. An understanding of normative elements in choicemaking must therefore begin with an analysis of the culture relevant to the decision. Ways in which the Western twentieth‐century intellectual and cultural climate have influenced the ability of modern managers to make value‐laden decisions are examined. Implications of relativism for management decision making along with the influences of relativistic decision making on organizational health also are discussed.
AN EMPIRICAL COMPARISON OF TWO MODELS FOR PREDICTING PREFERENCES FOR STANDARD EMPLOYMENT OFFERS
Authors: Hill Raymond E.
Published: June 2007

There are two major types of job‐choice models in the current literature. One may be called an ideal job model, and the other is primarily a linear utility model. This study attempts to compare the predictive capacity of the two types of models. The ideal job model implemented in the study performs better than a linear utility model in predicting preferences among a set of standard job offers.
THE INFLUENCE OF OPEN AND CLOSED BELIEF SYSTEMS ON COOPERATION IN THE PRISONER'S DILEMMA*
Authors: Leininger Wayne E. , Bitta Albert J. Della , Frey M. William
Published: June 2007

The Rokeach Dogmatism Scale was employed to identify subjects possessing either open or closed belief systems. Forty‐eight subjects were randomly selected and assigned to eight open‐open, eight open‐closed, and eight closed‐closed pairs. The dyads then played a modified version of the Prisoner's Dilemma where they were also permitted to communicate using a predetermined list of messages. It was found that the eight open‐open pairs cooperated significantly more than the other pairs in the experiment. However, results also suggest that individuals possessing open belief systems may not be able to achieve significantly greater cooperation with individuals possessing a closed belief system than two individuals both possessing closed belief systems.
INTEGRATING THE COMPUTER INTO A BUSINESS SCHOOL CURRICULUM*
Authors: Lucas Henry C. , Larreche Jean Claude , Montgomery David B.
Published: June 2007

The results of a study of computer utilization in the Graduate School of Business at Stanford are presented. The benefits and costs of a dedicated time‐sharing system acquired by the Business School to supplement the central campus computer facility are discussed. The study showed that the time‐sharing system produced many benefits, including improved service and a lower per student cost for computing. The implications of the Stanford experience for other schools are discussed.
ALLOCATE: A COMPUTER MODEL FOR SALES TERRITORY PLANNING
Authors: Comer James M.
Published: June 2007

Recent years have witnessed a renewal of interest in the application of management science techniques to personal selling related problems. Some early applications are described in [2] [7]. Cloonan has employed simulation in examination of the salesman routing problem [3] [4]. Lodish, in CALLPLAN, has devised an interactive call planning system designed to assist sales management and/or salesmen in allocating sales call time more efficiently [6]. Armstrong has devised a system he labels SCHEDULE which estimates the value of calls on accounts [1]. Hess and Samuels have designed a computer based sales districting model which is an analogue of a legislative apportionment model [5]. The objective of this paper is to explore the nature of a call planning system entitled ALLOCATE. ALLOCATE was designed to be employed by upper sales management either as an input device for sales management decisions such as sales‐territory‐size, or as a vehicle for determining the effects of alternative call allocation strategies on territorial revenue over multiple time periods.