bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
SYSTEMIC RISK AND FINANCIAL LINKAGES MEASUREMENT IN THE INDONESIAN BANKING
Authors: Ayomi Sri , Hermanto Bambang
Published: January 2017

This paper measures the insolvency risk of bank in Indonesia. We apply Merton model to identify the probability of defaul tover 30 banks during the period of 2002-2013. This paper also identify role of financial linkage a cross banks on transmitting from one bank to another; which enable us to assess if the risk is systemic or not. The results showed the larger total asset of the bank, the larger they contribute to systemic risk. Keywords : Conditional Value at Risk; Probability of Default; systemic risk and financial linkages;Value at Risk.JEL Classification: D81, G21, G33
PROFITABILITY, GROWTH OPPORTUNITY, CAPITAL STRUCTURE AND THE FIRM VALUE
Authors: Hermuningsih Sri
Published: January 2017

This paper examines the influence of profitability, growth opportunity, and capital structure on firm value. We apply Structural Equation Model (SEM) on 150 listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange during 2006 to 2010. The result shows that profitability, growth opportunity and capital structure positively and significanctly affect the company’s value. Secondly, the capital structure intervene the effect of growth profitability on company’s value, but not for profitability. Keywords: profitability, growth opportunitiy, capital structure, firm value, SEM.JEL Classification: C51, G32, L25
Decentralization and Regional Inflation in Indonesia
Authors: Tirtosuharto Darius , Adiwilaga Handri
Published: January 2017

The link between decentralization and inflation as one of the key aspects of macro economic stability has been surveyed by a number of studies and the findings are generally inconclusive. Using sample data of developing and developed countries, previous study found that decentralization correlates with lower inflation in developed countries and vice versa, it correlates with higher inflation in developing countries. The key question is what factors play a role in controlling inflation in a decentralized system. This paper is to argue that the coordination problem is the main issue in controlling inflation in a decentralized system, particularly in developing countries. The empirical analysis is to determine the effect of decentralization on regional inflation in Indonesia and whether institutions play a role in the recent downward trend of inflation in Indonesia. A panel data that includes 33 observations of the Indonesian regions (provinces) is constructed with a dummy variable representing the existence of institution. In addition, this study analyzes whether decentralization supports the convergence in regional inflation and also the pattern of spatial correlation in regional inflation. The assumption is that there are some degrees of collective institutional coordination and cooperation with the establishment of Regional Inflation Task Force (RITF). Keywords : Decentralization, Regional Inflation Convergence, Regional InstitutionJEL Classification: E31, H73, R12
ANALISIS TRIWULAN IV - 2013: Perkembangan Moneter, Perbankan dan Sistem Pembayaran
Authors: Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan
Published: January 2017

Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia triwulan IV 2013 lebih baik dari perkiraan Bank Indonesia disertai dengan struktur yang lebih berimbang. Pertumbuhan ekonomi mengalami peningkatan dari 5,63% pada triwulan III 2013, menjadi 5,72% pada triwulan IV 2013 ini (yoy). Hal ini ditopang oleh membaiknya ekspor riil sejalan dengan kenaikan permintaan mitra dagang negara-negara maju. Pada sisi lain, pertumbuhan permintaan domestik mengalami pertumbuhan yang moderat, ditandai oleh melambatnya konsumsi rumah tangga dan investasi, khususnya investasi non-bangunan. Dengan perkembangan ini, pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia untuk keseluruhan tahun 2013 tercatat sebesar 5,78%.
DAMPAK PEMBALIKAN MODAL DAN THRESHOLD DEFISIT NERACA BERJALAN TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH
Authors: Nugroho M. Noor , Ibrahim Ibrahim , Winarno Tri , Permata Meily Ika
Published: January 2017

This paper studies the effects of foreign capital flows toward the exchange rate of rupiah both in total and across types of capital investment. This paper also analyzes the thresholds of current account deficit which significantly affect the rate of Rupiah. The estimation shows the capital outflow affect the rate of Rupiah to depreciate and is larger than the appreciation pressure of capital inflow (except when invested in Certificate of Bank Indonesia, SBI). Furthermore, the rate of Rupiah is more sensitive on government bond (SUN) than stock or SBI. The yield of this government bond largely affects the probability of the capital reversal. Related to the current account, the estimation shows that after exceeds the threshold of USD980 million monthly deficit or about 2% of GDP, the exchange rate will depreciate by 12.7% (m-o-m) with the lag effect of 4 months.  Keywords: Capital flows, exchange rate, current account deficit, threshold. JEL Classification: F31, F32
The Impact of Capital Reversal and the Threshold of Current Account Deficit on Rupiah
Authors: Nugroho M. Noor , Ibrahim Ibrahim , Winarno Tri , Permata Meily Ika
Published: January 2017

This paper studies the effects of foreign capital flows toward the exchange rate of rupiah both in total and across types of capital investment. This paper also analyzes the thresholds of current account deficit which significantly affect the rate of Rupiah. The estimation shows the capital outflow affect the rate of Rupiah to depreciate and is larger than the appreciation pressure of capital inflow (except when invested in Certificate of Bank Indonesia, SBI). Furthermore, the rate of Rupiah is more sensitive on government bond (SUN) than stock or SBI. The yield of this government bond largely affects the probability of the capital reversal. Related to the current account, the estimation shows that after exceeds the threshold of USD980 million monthly deficit or about 2% of GDP, the exchange rate will depreciate by 12.7% (m-o-m) with the lag effect of 4 months.  Keywords: Capital flows, exchange rate, current account deficit, threshold.JEL Classification: F31, F32
DINAMIKA TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY INDUSTRI BESAR DAN SEDANG INDONESIA
Authors: Surjaningsih Ndari , Permono Bayu Panji
Published: January 2017

This paper calculates and decomposes the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) for large and medium scale industry in Indonesia covering the period of 2000-2009. By using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)  method, the result shows there is a shift of the supporting factors on the growth of TFP on manufacturing sector within the 2 (two) sample period. In the period of 2000-2004, efficiency change becomes the main contributor on the growth of TFP. Whereas in the period of 2005-2009, technical change becomes the main supporting factor of TFP,however it goes along with the growth of negative efficiency change or the decline of the company’s catching-up effect ability to adapt with the more advance technology. The grouping of the sample across subsectors, technical change and also efficiency change shows the declining amount of manufacture industry with superior productivity. Furthermore, the number of low and weakening catching-up industry is increasing.  Keywords: Indonesian manufacturing, total factor productivity, technical change, efficiency change, economic scale change, Data Envelopment Analysis JEL Classification: L6, M11
The Regional Impact Transmission via International Trade: An ASIAN-IO Approach
Authors: Ibrahim Ibrahim , Winarno Tri , Viva Melva , Yanfitri Yanfitri
Published: January 2017

Global financial crisis which began in the US in the latter part of 2008 hit a lot of countries in both trade and finance. In trade aspect, the crisis spread widely; in Indonesia, the total export value in 2009 dropped to 14,3%. Therefore, the economy of China, tightly linked with Asian countries including Indonesia, which rapidly rose before the crisis but slowed after it should be monitored as this condition, could indirectly hold down Indonesia’s GDP. Applying RAS method to update Asian IO data, this research has attempted to describe the trade structure of Asian countries in 2010. Also, it implemented a simulation of the impact of US and China’s GDP decline and US exports on Indonesia’s GDP, both at aggregate and sector levels. The result of the mapping shows that Indonesia is getting more dependent on China. Generally, the link between Indonesia’s exported products and global production chain is weak. Indonesia’s export commodities which are mostly of intermediate goods have low contribution towards value added. Moreover, the result of the simulation shows that 1% decrease in China’s GDP has greater impact on Indonesia’s GDP (0,14%) than that of the US (0,05%) and EU (0,07%) though with similar point.  Keyword: Trade Interactions, Input Output ModelJEL Classification : F16, R15
THRESHOLD OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND THE PERFORMANCE OF MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY IN INDONESIA
Authors: Surjaningsih Ndari , Maryaningsih Novi , Savitri Myrnawati
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the presence of the threshold of the real rupiah exchange rate which influences the profitability of manufacturing industry in Indonesia. By using a non-dynamics panel data over medium and large scale companies during 2001-2009, we found the threshold of 82.4 for the real rupiah exchange rate (REER). The REER index ranging from 82.24 to 101.13 with the change value between -5.01% and 20.09% (yoy) is secure for the profitability of Indonesian manufacturing industry. This paper also conform the significant affect of Total Factor Productivity on firm’s profitability. Keywords: Profitability, Manufacturing industry, exchange rateJEL classification: F1, D21, L6
DETERMINANT OF CAPITAL RATIO: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS ON STATE-OWNED BANKS IN INDONESIA
Authors: Raharjo Pamuji Gesang , Hakim Dedi Budiman , Manurung Adler Haymans , Maulana Tubagus Nur Ahmad
Published: January 2017

Capital plays important role to support the operational of the banks and to create a sound banking system in aggregate. For this reason, the banks are required to have a sufficient amount of capital, both to support its business expansion as well as a buffer to prevent and to absorb any unexpected losses. This paper analyzes determinants of capital ratio of the state-owned banks in Indonesia. Using panel data regression model, the result shows that the capital ratio of these state-owned banks is affected by the size of the bank, the bank’s leverage, the quality of management, and the interest rate risk. Contrary to the existing literatures, this paper does not support the effect of management capability to generate income on the bank’s capital ratio. Keywords: Capital structure, state-owned banks, panel estimation.JEL Classification: C23, G21, G32
QUARTERLY ANALYSIS Monetary, Banking, and Payment System Developments Quarter I – 2014
Authors: Bank Indonesia Author Team of Quarterly Report
Published: January 2017

Indonesia’s economy performed an under-controlled economic stability and was sustained by the economic adjustment in quarter I 2014. During the period, inflation was in the declining trend along with smaller current account deficit. The capital inflow also increased along with the improvement of economic fundamental which in turn contributed to the appreciation of Rupiah’s exchange rate. Accordingly, domestic demand was well-managed, even though the growth performed a sharp decrease and was lower than expected as the impact of real export contraction from mining sector. The development was not apart from the policy consistency taken by Bank Indonesia and the government since the mid 2013 to strengthen the economic stability and managed the growth to run proportionally and sustainably.
INTERNALISASI SEKTOR PERBANKAN DALAM MODEL DSGE
Authors: Harmanta Harmanta , Purwanto Nur M. Adhi , Oktiyanto Fajar Oktiyanto
Published: January 2017

We build DSGE model for small open economy with financial friction in the form of collateral constrain on banking sector, designed for Indonesian economy. The constructed model is capable to simulate the monetary policy (Bank Indonesia rate) and macroprudential policy (reserve requirement, capital adequacy ratio – CAR, and loan to value – LTV). By internalizing banking sector into the model, this model also enable us to simulate the impact of any shock originated from banking sector.  Keywords: monetary policy, DSGE with banking sector, macroprudential policy JEL Classification: E32, E44, E52, E58
ANALISIS TRIWULAN III - 2014
Authors: Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan
Published: January 2017

Perekonomian Indonesia pada triwulan III 2014 menunjukkan bahwa stabilitas makroekonomi dan sistem keuangan tetap terjaga dan mendukung proses penyesuaian ekonomi ke arah yang lebih seimbang. Kondisi ini tercermin dari defisit transaksi berjalan yang menurun, inflasi yang terjaga dan permintaan domestik yang tetap terkelola dengan baik, meskipun pertumbuhan ekonomi domestik masih dalam kecenderungan melambat. Sementara itu, stabilitas sistem keuangan masih solid ditopang oleh ketahanan sistem perbankan dan relatif terjaganya kinerja pasar keuangan. Di sisi lain, sistem pembayaran juga berjalan lancar dalam menopang perekonomian...
PENENTU KEBERHASILAN REDENOMINASI MATA UANG: PENDEKATAN HISTORIS DAN EKSPERIMENTAL
Authors: Pambudi Andika , Juanda Bambang , Priyarsono D.S. Priyarsono
Published: January 2017

Redenomination is a simplification of nominal value of currency by reducing digit (zero number) without reducing the real value of the currency. The main objective of this research was to examine whether the economic conditions at the time of redenomination may affect the success of currency redenomination. The methods used were regression analysis on historical data of 30 countries which are involved in redenominating their currencies, economic experiments with t-test, and survey of people’ perspective. Based on regression analysis, inflation will decrease and economic growth will rise higher after redenomination, if previously a country have experienced high economic growth as well. Based on experimental research, when inflation was high, redenomination could increase the selling price. Otherwise, when inflation was low, redenomination could decrease the selling price. Changes in selling price after redenomination was not affected significantly by differences in economic growth conditions. In different economic conditions, redenomination policy did not significantly affect the changes number of transactions and total value of transactions in the market. From the survey results, public did not believe government can control inflation after redenomination. Redenomination also will not affect consumption pattern.  Keywords: Redenomination, Inflation, Economic Growth, Experiment JEL Classification: C91, E31, E42, E58
FOREIGN EXCHANGE EXPECTATIONS IN INDONESIA: REGIME SWITCHING CHARTISTS AND FUNDAMENTALISTS APPROACH
Authors: Syarifuddin Ferry , Achsani Noer Azam , Hakim Dedi Budiman , Bakhtiar Toni
Published: January 2017

In this research, the effect of central bank intervention within a heterogeneous expectation exchange rate model is investigated. The results are supporting both chartists and fundamentalist regimes. In the period investigated, chartist dominates in determining the exchange rate. While BI foreign exchange intervention can effectively push the market exchange-rate to its long-run fundamental equilibrium, however, Bank Indonesia’s effort to exert a stabilizing effect of foreign exchange interventions, the result does not show a success.  Keywords: exchange rates, foreign-exchange intervention, switching regression JEL Classification: F31, E52, C24
PEMANFAATAN SEKURITISASI ASET DALAM MENDORONG SEKTOR RIIL: ALTERNATIF PEMBIAYAAN UMKM
Authors: Santoso Wijoyo , Soekro Shinta R.I. , Darmansyah Darmansyah , Sihaloho Hilde D.
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the asset securitization as a source of financing for small and medium scale enterprise. We use field survey and focus group discussion in Jabodetabek, Bandung, Yogyakarta, Denpasar, Medan, and Banjarmasin, covering 149 samples in total. This paper found the banks generally are in excess liquidity condition, therefore face difficulty on obtaining the minimum of Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR). For this reason, those banks are not interested to sell the SME’s loan though they are quite interested on the asset securitization concept. For the banks, the major motive to invest in asset securitization program is a high yield. In addition, they expect this portfolio to increase the LDR. Prior the implementation of this program, this paper underlines the necessity to overcome some obstacles including non-bankable SME’s, liquidity and human resource of the banks, and limited information of the asset securitazion program (EBA-UMKM).  Keywords: asset securitization, SME’s, banking.JEL Classification: D24, L6, E32
DETERMINANT OF NON PERFORMING LOAN: THE CASE OF ISLAMIC BANK IN INDONESIA
Authors: Firmansyah Irman
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the non-performing loan and its determinant. Using the monthly data of Islamic banks during 2010-2012, this paper found that size and efficiency of the banks do not affect the non-performing loan. On the other hand, GDP and inflation negatively affect the non-performing loan, while the liquidity of the bank positively affects the non-performing loan. The liquidity of also does not mediate the relationship between the size of the bank, their efficiency, the GDP and the inflation to the non-performing loan.  Keywords: non-performing loan, liquidity, bank size, efficiency, sobel test, Islamic bank. JEL Classification: C12, G21
THE PERSISTENCY AND THE SUSTAINABILITY OF THE INDONESIA'S CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT
Authors: Asmarani Tuti Eka
Published: January 2017

Asian and European crises were witnesses of banks’ vulnerable due to market risks. The Basel Committee requires an internal risk assessment applying Value at Risk (VaR). However, a replacement of VaR with Expected Shortfall (ES) has been suggested recently due to an excessive losses produced by banks which are beyond VaR estimations. This paper studied the risk of Indonesian banks applying a historical expected shortfall. We used JIBOR (overnight) from 2009 – 2012 as a proxy of market risk. The assessment of a historical expected shortfall of the net position of 27 banks accounts for October 2012 showed that state owned banks placed among the five highest value of each component (net position) in the balance sheet, namely placement to Bank Indonesia, interbank placement, spot and derivatives claims, securities, and loans. It means that the state owned banks had the highest risk and were the most aggressive among Indonesian banks. It might be due to carrying some of the government’s program, such as small enterprise loans.  Keywords: expected shortfall, value at risk, banks, risk. JEL Classification: D81, G210
THE ROLE OF CURRENCY HEDGING ON FIRM PERFORMANCE: A PANEL DATA EVIDENCE IN INDONESIA
Authors: Indawan Fiskara , Fitriani Sri , Karlina Indriani , Grace Melva Viva
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the role of currency hedging on non-financial firm’s performance. Most firms on the sample have anticipated the currency mismatch risk by balancing the ratio of foreign debt to their asset  fenominated in foreign currency. Using panel estimation, we find that there is no evidence of currency hedging activities to affect capital and performance of firms. The result underlines the low intensity of currency hedging activities due to lack of incentives, which is inline with the low derivative transaction within the underdeveloped foreign currency market. This finding may raise a concern since currently the development of foreign liabilities for non-financial firmsin Indonesia is increasing in significant level, as well as the increase risk of domestic currency depreciation. For these reasons, Bank Indonesia should take proactive policies to deepen foreign currency market as well as derivative market by providing a more comprehensive and market friendly hedging instruments to banks and non-financial firms, while keep promoting the benefit of currency hedging.Keywords: Hedging, derivative market, foreign liability.JEL Classification: F31, G31
The Impact of Macroeconomic Condition on The Banks Performance in Indonesia
Authors: Aviliani Aviliani , Siregar Hermanto , Maulana Tubagus Nur Ahmad , Hasanah Heni
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the impact of macroeconomic indicator (including the production index, inflation, Bank Indonesia rate, Jakarta stock index, exchange rate and the crude oil price) on the state owned banks’ performance. We apply the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) on the banking data ranging from 2006-2013, and provide us several findings. First, the impulse response function shows the largest response of the bank overhead cost (BOPO) due to the macroeconomic shock; we argue the volatility of this bank efficiency indicator, reflects the inefficiency of the banks in Indonesian. Second, the amount of loan and the lending to deposit ratio (LDR) provide the weakest response due to the macroeconomic shock. This is in line with the result of variance decomposition, where the macroeconomic variable explains the least of the NPL variation. Third, from all macroeconomic variables we observe, the shock of Bank Indonesia’s rate generally provides the largest response of most of the bank performance indicators; which supports the use of the Bank Indonesia’s rate as effective monetary instrument.
QUARTERLY OUTLOOK ON MONETARY, BANKING, AND PAYMENT SYSTEM IN INDONESIA: QUARTER II, 2015
Authors: Machmud TM Arief , Perdymer Syachman , Anwar Muslimin , Aman Nurkholisoh Ibnu , Ayu Tri Kurnia , Mutiara Anggita Cinditya , Riyadi Illinia Ayudhia
Published: January 2017

This paper provides current analysis of the ongoing quarter, and brief outlook on the forthcoming quarter. We use a field survey along with estimation of macroeconomic models to provide the assessment and to make some projections on the monetary, the banking, and the payment system in Indonesia. This paper confirms the slowdown of the Indonesian economy during quarter two 2015 due to the slowing investment and the government expenditure, and the weak export performance. With the fiscal stimulus launched by the government, we expect to see an improvement in next two quarters. The lower current account deficit and manageable inflation will help to maintain the macroeconomic stability; however, the high global uncertainty will put depreciation pressure on Rupiah.
THE MARKET STRUCTURE OF THE BANK, ITS PERFORMANCE, AND THE MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICY
Authors: Silalahi Tumpak , Manurung Adler H , Hidayat Yuli Teguh
Published: January 2017

Recently, numerous Central Banks implement various macro-prudential policies to complement the existing monetary policy. This paper analyzes the impact of these policies along with the market structure, on the bank’s performance. Using panel data analysis, this paper conclude that the reserve requirement ratio policy negatively affect the bank’s performance (ROA). The empirical test shows the banking industry in Indonesia respond to the increase of reserve requirement by raising the Net Interest Margin to achieve their targeted operating profits. Secondly, this paper fail to find uniform conclusion across model variants about the effect of the policy rate on bank’s performance. This also applies on the Loan to Value policy. Fourth, the market concentration has a more significant effect on banks’ profitability as compared to market power. Fifth, the production index significantly affects the banking profitability. These findings implies a necessity for policy makers to review the financial market structure before formulating effective policy package to promote a healthy competition in the banking industry
THE DETERMINANTS OF BANK'S EFFICIENCY IN INDONESIA
Authors: Widiarti Astoeti Wahjoe , Siregar Hermanto , Andati Trias
Published: January 2017

This paper measures the efficiency of the banks using the intermediation approach and the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) on quarterly data of 108 conventional banks in Indonesia during the period of 2012Q1 to 2014Q4. The results shows that the Indonesian banking industry is inefficient in its intermediation function, which is in line with their financial indicators namely the total increasing asset, stable ROA of around 2-3%, and their Operating to Income Cost ratio of about 66-83%. Furthermore, we apply data panel estimation to estimate the determinant of this efficiency; the result shows the bank’s type, the Non Performing Loan (NPL), the Loan to Deposit Ratio (LDR), the size of the bank, the Cost Efficiency Ratio (CER), and the Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR); significantly affect the bank’s efficiency in Indonesia.
DAMPAK OTONOMI KEUANGAN DAERAH TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA
Authors: Nurhemi Nurhemi , R Guruh Suryani
Published: January 2017

Paper ini menganalisis dampak otonomi keuangan daerah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi regional di Indonesia. Metode estimasi panel diaplikasikan pada data 26 propinsi selang kurun 1990-2011, yang dibagi kedalam tiga interval yakni jangka panjang 1990-2011, sebelum desentralisasi 1990-2000 dan sesudah desentralisasi 2001-2011. Hasil estimasi pada data nasional menunjukkan bahwa otonomi keuangan (diwakili dengan Derajat Desentralisasi Fiskal) berpengaruh positif terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Namun demikian, pada sub sampel masing-masing wilayah, pengaruh positif dari pendapatan per kapita terhadap pertumbuhan hanya terbukti pada wilayah Jawa dan Bali dan hanya berlaku dalam periode observasi panjang (1990-2011). Temuan ini menggiring pada kesimpulan bahwa pengaruh desentralisasi fiskal terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, tidak konskusif untuk kasus desentralisasi di Indonesia
DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS OF PRO-POOR GROWTH
Authors: Piotrowska Maria
Published: January 2017

Balancing sustainable growth requires poverty to be reduced. The paper is aimed at determining under which conditions growth can be considered pro-poor. Own approaching to the definition of pro-poor growth is suggested. It allows identifying the growth factors, which directly reduce poverty. Furthermore, it analyses two transmission mechanisms through which growth can reduce poverty; a labor market and local redistribution. It reveals barriers in poverty reduction thus pointing at necessary state intervention. It also helps to evaluate if the sectors of strongest foreign direct investments contribute to poverty reduction. The hypotheses suggested in the paper are verified on a base of data from two sources: the Polish Household Budget Surveys and Local Data Bank offered by the Central Statistical Office of Poland for a period of 2005-2011. To identify the direct effects of growth on poverty reduction through labor market and local redistribution, we apply mediation models. Estimations of panel data models are used to assess dependence of poverty on economic growth and its factors, and relationships in the mediation models.
FINANCIAL INCLUSION AND INCLUSIVE GROWTH: A CROSS-PROVINCE ANALYSIS IN INDONESIA
Authors: Sanjaya I Made , Nursechafia Nursechafia
Published: January 2017

This paper computes and analyzes the degree of financial inclusion and the inclusive growth in Indonesia. Using provincial data, we calculate the Index of Financial Inclusion (IFI) based on the accessibility, the availability, and the usage of the financial services. On the other hand, the Index of Inclusive Growth (IIG) is developed through the method of social opportunity function by increasing the average level and equity index of opportunities. The result shows that the financial inclusion in Indonesia is largely determined by the accessibility, while the availability and the usage play only small portion. This leads to a conclusion that the group of the poor is limited on using the financial services. Furthermore, we use social opportunity function to measure the inclusive growth, and find a positive correlation with the financial inclusion. These findings call the attention from regulators to push the financial sector to extend their services further beyond their existing market target
THE EFFICIENCY OF BANKS IN INDONESIA: SHARIA VS. CONVENTIONAL BANKS
Authors: Anwar Mokhamad
Published: January 2017

This paper evaluates the performance of Indonesian banking sector, focusing on technical efficiency of sharia and conventional banks along with the determinants of its efficiency during the period 2002-2010. Data Envelopment Analysis is employed to estimate banks technical efficiency and Tobit-regression is used to reveal the determinants of the efficiency over the panel data of 116 banks, including 109 conventional banks and 7 sharia banks. The result shows that sharia banks outperformed conventional banks in one model when it takes into account small business finance (SBF) as one of the output components in the model. Sharia banks have higher average SBF portfolio than those of conventional banks’ portfolio. The result indicates the efforts of Indonesian sharia banks to obey one of the principles in Islamic banking, “the emphasis on Islamic principles of morality”. By observing all models, it is concluded that the size of the bank, capital adequacy and liquidity are of banks characteristic factors which are very important to increase banks’ efficiency
NEXUS OF COMPETITION AND STABILITY: CASE OF BANKING IN INDONESIA
Authors: Mulyaningsih Tri , Daly Anne , Miranti Riyana
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the relationship between banking competition and banking stability in Indonesia, where the bank lending is the major source of funding on this country with a series of structural changes including deregulation, economic crisis, and consolidation. We apply generalized method of moment approach on individual bank data, and the result shows that competitive banking will increase the economic stability. Under a competitive industry, banks must improve their efficiency, increase their loans disbursement, diversify their business, boost their assets and enhance their capitalization. This paper emphasize that the efficiency is a critical to reduce risk, both for large and small banks. Furthermore, regardless their size, an adequate capital is an important factor for the bank to cope with shocks in the market
Dampak Disintermediasi Kegiatan Bank Terhadap Efektivitas Kebijakan Moneter
Authors: Wibowo Y. Santoso , Gunawan Gunawan
Published: January 2017

Selama dekade terakhir, perkembangan perusahaan pembiayaan dan lembaga keuangan lainnya termasuk pasar modal telah berkembang pesat. Perkembangan pasar modal yang ditandai dengan menigkatnya emiten di bursa efek, nilai kapitalisasi pasar, nilai perdangan di pasar sekunder, serta lembaga penunjang pasar mdoal seperti perusahaan sekuritas, broker dan perusahaan penjamin emisi penjualan saham tersebut bedampak pada berkurangnya peran perbankan sebagai lembaga perantara (disintermediasi) yang pada gilirannya akan berdampak pada efektivitas kebijakan moneter. Untuk mengetahui dampak disintermediasi tersebut dilakukan pengujian terhadap terjadinya proses disintermediasi serta pengaruhnya terhadap efektivitas kebijakan moneter, dan sebagai perbandingan dikemukakan juga proses disintermediasi yang terjadi di Spanyol, Perancis, dan Korea Selatan.Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dalam periode 1990-1997 pangsa kapitalisasi pasar dibandingkan pangsa kredit meningkat dari 1/9 menjadi 2/3, menunjukkan semakin besarnya peran pasar modal. Proses disintermediasi telah terjadi terutama pada periode 1995-1997, khususnya untuk penanaman dana berjangka panjang yang ditandai dengan mengecilnya selisih antara peandapatan di pasar perbankan dengan pasar pendapatan di pasar modal. Disintermediasi tersebut masih relatif lemah karena pertumbuhan pasar modal masih searah dengan pertumbuhan kredit, dan kedua pasar belum saling meniadakan. Proses disintermediasi tersebut belum mengganggu efektivitas kebijakan moneter karena paerubahan kredit dan kapitalisasi pasar hanya merupakan komponenn kecil dari residual M2, meskipun perumbuhan kapitalisasi pasar lebih berpengaruh terhadap efektivitas kebijakan moneter dibandingkan dengan pertumbuhan kredit. Mengingat korelsi antara suku bunga deposito dengan pertumbuhan IHSG cukup dekat dan signifikan, maka untuk mencegah proses dis-intermediasi di masa mendatang perlu diupayakan suku bunga yang stabil dalam jangka panjang.
Menerawang Kebijakan Moneter yang ‘Forward Looking’
Authors: Mochtar Firman
Published: January 2017

Dengan mempertimbangkan kemungkinan dampak interaksi antara kebijakan fiskal dan kebijakan moneter serta turut memperhatikan sumber pembiayaan bagi penerapan satu kebijakan, tulisan ini berusaha menelaah dampak penerapan kebijakan moneter yang ‘forward looking’. Hasil menerawang mengindikasikan bahwa upaya menerapkan kebijakan moneter yang ‘forward looking’ dalam periode SBI sebagai piranti moneter relatif terbatas. Sempitnya ruang gerak kebijakan moneter yang ‘forward looking’ pada periode SBI ini tersirat dari kemungkinan munculnya fenomena ‘tight monetary paradox’ saat kebijakan moneter ketat diterapkan. Gambaran berbeda bilamana kebijakan moneter yang ‘forward looking’ tersebut diterapkan pada saat piranti yang digunakan adalah surat utang negara (SUN, misalnya T-Bills). Kebijakan moneter yang ‘forward looking’ dalam periode T-Bills ini terindikasi lebih leluasa bergerak untuk mengendalikan inflasi ke depan. Indikasi lain yang juga terlihat dari tulisan ini adalah sulitnya bagi kebijakan moneter yang ‘forward looking’ untuk dapat berdiri sendiri dalam formulasi kebijakan moneter. Meski dengan bobot yang lebih kecil dibandingkan bobot yang diberikan kepada proyeksi inflasi, formulasi kebijakan moneter masih tetap perlu mempertimbangkan kondisi inflasi yang sedang terjadi untuk melengkapi kebijakan moneter yang forward looking tersebut.
PERKEMBANGAN MONETER, PERBANKAN DAN SISTEM PEMBAYARAN TRIWULAN III – 2004
Authors: Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan
Published: January 2017

Perkembangan ekonomi makro sampai dengan triwulan III-2004 mengindikasikan bahwa meskipun kestabilan ekonomi semakin baik, ekonomi domestik belum dapat memanfaatkan dukungan kondisi eksternal yang kondusif secara optimal. Hal ini tercermin dari relatif terbatasnya pertumbuhan ekspor dan aliran modal asing yang berjangka panjang khususnya foreign direct investment (FDI). Kondisi tersebut antara lain disebabkan oleh masih terbatasnya peningkatan kapasitas dan daya saing. Dengan perkembangan tersebut PDB triwulan III-2004 diperkirakan mencapai 4,4 – 4,9% (yoy). Pola pertumbuhan ekonomi tersebut masih tetap bertumpu pada konsumsi khususnya konsumsi swasta. Sementara itu, investasi mulai tumbuh cukup tinggi pada beberapa triwulan terakhir walaupun secara keseluruhan belum meningkatkan kapasitas ekonomi. Peningkatan investasi tersebut tidak terlepas dari dorongan konsumsi dan dukungan pembiayaan perbankan serta pasar modal. Sementara ekspor tumbuh terbatas sejalan dengan masih rendahnya kapasitas dan daya saing terkait dengan masih terbatasnya investasi, sedangkan impor masih tumbuh cukup tinggi seiring dengan masih tingginya permintaan domestik. Berbagai perkembangan tersebut menunjukkan bahwa ekspansi ekonomi yang tercipta belum berimbang.
ANALISIS PENGARUH VOLATILITAS NILAI TUKAR PADA EKSPOR KOMODITI MANUFAKTUR DI INDONESIA PENERAPAN ESTIMASI DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN DISTRIBUSI LAG POISSONS PADA PERSAMAAN NON LINEAR SEEMINGLY UNRELATED REGRESSION
Authors: Ekananda MM., MSE Dr. Mahyus
Published: January 2017

The purpose of this paper is to explain the uncertainty of exchange rate volatility effect to international trade. Its effect to international trade, specially quantity of export, come from accumulation exchange rate fluctuation from several lag. For the record, some previous researches which found out the impact of exchange rates on trade did not consider some of the things. First, the existence of inconstancy on trade. Namely, depend on the change of elasticity along the time of observations. Secondly, the number of lag in independent variable which is needed in order to record the highest impact. Third, there is an accumulation of impact in some previous period. The industry with lower import content become easier to maintain the export level. Export adjustment will occure with different time. This paper found that the industry with lower import content has faster export adjusment than higner import content. The data will separate into two different import content. The industry with higher import content will reduce the export if exchange rate volatility increase.The other purpose of this paper is to explain the algorithm solution for system equation which has non linier form in its parameter, especially in system equation of seemingly unrelated regression. Particularly, this paper will discuss the model formation by inserting poissons probability function, which cause the non linier form. Inserting poissons distibution probablity to equation of trade can estimate the time of adjustment that has a best distribution. Then, this paper will explain the implementation that had been done by Ekananda (2003) about poisons probability function on system equation, the dynamics of equation and the simultaneous equation by using Hausman algorithm (1975).Keywords: exchange rate, poisson distribution, Non Linear SURJEL: C16, C32, F14, F31
RIGIDITAS HARGA–UPAH DAN IMPLIKASINYA PADA KEBIJAKAN MONETER DI INDONESIA
Authors: Solikin . , Sugema Iman
Published: January 2017

This research is using survey method with focusing on the issue of how and what the determinants of price and wage rigidity, including uncertainty.In the case of price rigidity, we find that firm-cost related factors or supply side plays greater role than demand side of the market. This rule applies on middle up scale firm, firm with differentiated products and firm with large market coverage. The opposite will occur on small, homogenous product and small market coverage firm. We also confirm the downward rigidity phenomenon as price is ease to increase than decrease.Our findings imply several important impact on monetary policy effectiveness, monetary policy asymmetry, inflation-targeting and minimum wage determination. Keywords: Price rigidity, wage rigidityJEL: E31, E52, J31
ANALISIS DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN MONETER TERHADAP VARIABEL MAKROEKONOMI DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1983.1 - 2003.2
Authors: Julaihah Umi , Insukindro Insukindro
Published: January 2017

The objectives of this study are to analyze the effect of monetary policy on Indonesian economy and which monetary instruments can explain the variability of macroeconomic variables better.We apply Vector Error Correction Model on quarterly Indonesian economic data during period of 1983.1 - 2003.2. We observe monetary policy variables namely base money, SBI interest rate, one month commercial bank deposit interest rate, and macroeconomic variables namely consumer price index, gross domestic product, and exchange rate (rupiah/dollar). The model approach provide us two quantitative measurements, (i) impulse response function that can trace the response of one endogenous variable caused by shock/ innovation of other variables in the model; (ii) variance decomposition to show the relative contribution of certain endogenous variable variability.The result of impulse response function shows that economic growth did not response the shock of base money while on the other hand the base money has significant effect on inflation. This leaves a price puzzle and liquidity puzzle. The use of SBI as policy variable gives better result than base money as price puzzle and liquidity puzzle vanish. The result of variance decomposition shows that base money contributes only 5% on inflation but it did not give any contribution on economic growth fluctuation. While SBI has better capability in explaining the economic growth fluctuation until 14%. The interesting result is policy variables (base money and SBI) have best contribution in explain the fluctuation on exchange rate. These findings assert that policy shock is well responded by exchange rate rather than other economic variables.Keywords: monetary policy, impulse response function, variance decomposition.JEL : C32, E52, F31, F43
ANALISIS APLIKASI MODEL NERACA PEMBAYARAN DAN MODEL MONETER TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH/ DOLAR, PERIODE 1980.1 – 2000.4
Authors: Nuryadin Didi , Santoso, M.Soc.Sc DR. Bagus
Published: January 2017

This paper is aimed to analyze variables determines the exchange rate of rupiah. Using exchange rate model (balance of payment and monetary model) developed by Fullerton, Hattori and Calderon (2001) we incorporate two additional variables namely policy variable and crises variable.We apply unit root test to observe the existence of structural break during observed period. Prior the implementation of Engel-Granger Error Correction Model, we test whether our variables in equation are cointegrated. Following Hendry’s general to specific modeling procedure, we get two simple models namely balance of payment and monetary model.Our result shows all explanatory variables significantly determine exchange rate in both models. However international reserve and national income has opposite sign before and during the crisis. Devaluation which is captured by dummy variable has positive impact (depreciates) exchange rate as well as crisis dummy variable. We also note that the speed of adjustment in balance of payment model, 17.51% is greater than in monetary model, 12.47%.Keywords: Exchange rate, balance of payment, structural break, Error Correction ModelJEL: C32, F31, F41.
ILLUSTRATIVE SUBSIDY VARIATIONS TO ATTRACT INVESTORS (using the EMERALD Indonesian multi-regional CGE model)
Authors: Pambudi Daniel , Parewangi Andi Alfian
Published: January 2017

Paper ini membahas dampak ekonomi dari subsidi terhadap industri yang dapat menarik minat investor pada daerah tertentu. Dengan mempergunakan EMERALD (Equilibrium Model with Economic Regional Analysis Dimensions) yang merupakan model CGE multi region untuk Indonesia, paper ini menganalisa beberapa simulasi alternatif pembiayaan subsidi industri Tekstil di Jawa Tengah.Hasil yang diperoleh menunjukkan bahwa subsidi atas industri Tekstil dengan sumber pendanaan bukan pajak akan meningkatkan daya saing industri Tekstil diatas biaya sektor tradable secara keseluruhan. Secara riil, subsidi ini akan meningkatkan PDRB Jawa Tengah sebesar 0.21%. Jika subsidi tersebut dibiayai dari pengenaan pajak atas rumah tangga, akan meningkatkan PDRB Jawa Tengah sebesar 0.11%.Keyword: Regional, Computable General Equilibrium, investment, subsidyJEL: C68, D92, E62, O18
DETERMINAN TINGKAT SUKU BUNGA PINJAMAN DI INDONESIA TAHUN 1983 – 2002
Authors: Kurniawan Taufik
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the role of international interest rate, money supply, inflation, SBI rate (Sertifikat Bank Indonesia) and GDP on the lending rate. We use the Error Correction Model on Indonesian yearly data from 1983 – 2002 and confirm the significant of these explanatory variables as the determinant of short and long term credit lending rates.These findings conforms the necessity for Bank Indonesia as monetary authority to take into account the external factors and support the integration of domestic and foreign financial market.Keyword: Error Correction Model, Interest rate, Financial market, Money Supply, Lending rate.JEL: C22, E44, E51
Banking Disintermediation and Its Implication for Monetary Policy: The Case of Indonesia
Authors: Alamsyah Halim , Zulverdi Doddy , Gunadi Iman , Idris Rendra Z. , Pramono Bambang
Published: January 2017

Paper ini berupaya menganalisa implikasi perilaku bank dalam menentukan portofolio terhadap tingkat efektivitas kebijakan moneter. Dengan kerangka analisa comparative static, paper ini mengetengahkan model industri perbankan yang bersifat monopolis dimana pemilik bank memaksimalkan profit dengan kendala tertentu baik yang berasal dari kesanggupan modal maupun kendala akibat regulasi.Kalibrasi model pada kondisi optimal, mengindikasikan bahwa penurunan fungsi disintermediasi bank yang didominasi oleh faktor asymmetric information, akan berakibat pada menurunnya efektifitas kebijakan moneter.Kesimpulan ini berimplikasi pada (i) perlunya Biro Kredit dan rating agencies untuk menyempurnakan informasi, (ii) perlunya investasi yang lebih besar oleh perbankan atas kapasitas riset dan sistem monitoring, (iii) perlunya mempertimbangkan skema garansi kredit, (iv) perlunya koordinasi yang lebih baik antara kebijakan mikro dan makro demi kestabilan makro yang akan meningkatkan keyakinan publik dan terakhir, (v) perlunya mempromosikan perkembangan lembaga keuangan non-bank, untuk mengurangi ketergantungan pembiayaan atas lembaga perbankan.JEL: E52, E58, G21Keyword: Disintermediation, monetary policy, banking sector, interest rate.
Dampak Liberalisasi Perdagangan terhadap Perilaku Pembentukan Harga Produk Industri melalui Structure-Conduct Performance Model
Authors: Astiyah Siti , Hutabarat Akhis R. , Sianipar Desthy V.B.
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the impact of trade liberalization on the domestic price of industry product by utilizing the structure-conduct-performance (SCP) model. Applying the model to a pooled data of the 3 digits ISIC level of Indonesian industry product, the result shows the abnormal price determination on industry level after the increase of trade liberalization. The existence of this phenomenon, the downward profit-margin rigidity, is indicated by the increase of the profit margin, which reduces the social welfare and tends to persist the inflation. A clear consequence for the Indonesian Central Bank, is to faster and increase the credibility of the middle and long term inflation target, either by clarify the policy signal and its consistency and increase the cooperation with the government.JEL: E31, L11, O24, P23Keyword:Trade liberalization, Structure-Conduct-Performance, Price, Industry
DEFAULT RISK DAN PENJAMINAN KREDIT UKM
Authors: Untoro Untoro
Published: January 2017

This paper asserts that the credit guarantee for the Usaha Kecil Menengah (UKM, Small-Medium Scale Enterprise) is a necessity to encourage the bank to allocate the credit. This allocation requires the identification of the default risk accompanying the credit allocation, after which, we can define the guarantee capacity of the Lembaga Penjaminan Kredit (LPK) and the risk sharing among the parties.Using the Merton method, the result shows the default risk of UKM is 0.7%. Next, we apply this value in the gearing ratio method to calculate the credit guarantee capacity, 142 times of the equity owned by the LPK. On practice, this large capacity should be rationalized to maintain the sustainability of the LPK it self.We analyze five different credit-guarantee schemes based on the involvement of different institutions. The best scheme for a certain region should consider the fund availability and the quality of human resources on the corresponding region.JEL: D81, E51, H81Keyword: Credit guarantee, default risk, Small-Medium Scale Enterprise, UKM, Merton Method, gearing ratio method
ANALISA TRIWULANAN: Perkembangan Moneter, Perbankan dan Sistem Pembayaran
Authors: Bank Indonesia Tim Penulis Laporan Triwulanan
Published: January 2017

Selama triwulan II-2005, kinerja perekonomian Indonesia menunjukkan perkembangan yang membaik. Kestabilan makroekonomi tetap terjaga meskipun terdapat tekanan depresiasi terhadap nilai tukar dan inflasi yang cenderung meningkat. Kegiatan ekonomi meningkat lebih tinggi dibandingkan triwulan yang sama tahun sebelumnya dengan pola ekspansi yang lebih berimbang, ditandai dengan peran investasi yang semakin meningkat. Laju inflasi dalam triwulan II-2005 menunjukkan peningkatan, terutama didorong oleh kenaikan BBM.