bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Baggage Taken Ashore: The Outlook of Senior Waterfront Management in the 1950s
Authors: Sheridan Tom
Published: March 2007

Strategic choice by management has attracted much attention in recent years. This paper lends weight to those scholars who have called for a 'culturalist' under standing of management behaviour. It looks at the inefficient use of waterfront labour in the 1950s and at the rigid refusal of senior waterfront management to engage in meaningful consultation with their employees or their union. Among the key factors determining top managers' approach was a common, anachronistic mindset resting on a pervasive seagoing culture which defined any shore-based activity as a second-rate derivative of the shipping industry. Although ships were often loading or unloading in port for longer periods than they were at sea, stevedoring remained for top management an inferior activity that seldom re ceived first call on their strategic thinking. The traditional maritime culture also made for a naive, authoritarian approach to labour-particularly among senior management in the major domestically-owned shipping group in Australia.
Compulsory Arbitration and Union Recovery: Maritime-Related Unions 1900-1912
Authors: Sheldon Peter
Published: March 2007

Until recently, conventional wisdom has had it that the introduction of com pulsory arbitration caused the revival and growth of unionism at the beginning of the twentieth century. In isolation, Peter Macarthy provided well-founded but over looked arguments in opposition to that wisdom. However; Macarthy did not develop his analysis further by systematically following unions in relation to arbitration in the context of changing product and labour markets. This article develops this type of analysis by examining the relationship between compulsory arbitration in New South Wales and trends in the memberships of four maritime-related unions in the decade to 1912. It confirms Macarthy's argument that the union recovery came before the introduction of arbitration. In this case it was due to a strong growth in shipping, an improving labour market and the organising and collective bargaining activities of the union movement. Further; it suggests that there was no 'arbitration effect' on union membership numbers before the introduction of the 1908 Act, and even where mem bership increased rapidly after 1910 this bad little to do with the New South Wales arbitration system.
Learning and Affect i n iNternational Politics
Authors: Raser John R.
Published: March 2007

O. Hobart Mowrer's two-factor model of learning is described by showing its develop ment from Thorndikean, Pavlovian, and Hullian learning theory. The model is then generalized to learning by national actors in an international interaction system, with particular attention to the point that the punishment or rewarding of responses sets up an affective state within the organism (or multi-organism entity) which acts as a prs mary determinant of what future responses will be made. This affective state is one of expectation (fear or hope) that further responses will be either rewarded or punished. When the agent of reward or punishment is seen, not as a neutral environment, but as another sentient or choosing actor in a social system, then the fear or hope become trans lated into hostility or friendship toward that actor. This hostility or friendship will result in either hostility-laden or friendship-laden new responses. Hostile behavior is more apt to be punished, friendly behavior to be rewarded. Thus, the cycle becomes self re-inforcing.

The task of diplomacy is to break these cycles by pointing out what behaviors may be rewarded and what must be punished, thus creating an interaction between the actors in which they both learn how to co-exist in the system. At the same time, diplomacy should have the task, when punishment is necessary, to clarify that this punishment is the result of a specific behavior and is not a generalized reaction springing from a view of the other actor as 'evil' or 'bad' due to his very nature.
On the Meaning of Nonviolence
Authors: Galtung Johan
Published: March 2007

Two different ways of studying nonviolence are distinguished, depending on whether one uses explicit or implicit definitions of nonviolence used by others, whether writers on the subject or people who say they have practiced nonviolence, or one tries to develop one's own definition. The second approach is followed in this article in order to avoid ritualistic repetition of what others have regarded as nonviolence.

Nonviolence is seen as an effort to influence, and a typology of influence techniques is developed, based on a simple model of how human actions are decided upon. This typology has as its main axis a distinction between positive and negative techniques of influence, i.e. the distinction between techniques that facilitate the execution of positive actions and techniques that impede the execution of negative actions. Nonviolence is then defined in a negative and a positive sense: negative nonviolence would include all possible techniques of influence short of 'deprivation of biological health' (called violence in the narrow sense) and positive nonviolence would exclude all negative techniques of influence (called violence in the broad sense).

Current forms of nonviolent resistance or intervention are then examined in this perspective, and five main types are distinguished: a symbolic form that aims at pointing out to the adversary what are positive and what are negative actions; the use of physical means such as nonviolent sabotage, emigration, escape and their positive counterpart: close social contact; the use of positive and negative sanctions; the use of positive and negative 'amplification' (a way of increasing the impact the adversary's actions have, whether they are good or bad) and role-playing which includes such techniques as non cooperation and civil disobedience.

In the final evaluation it is pointed out that adherents of nonviolence should do more to develop positive techniques of influence, and that many of the negative techniques differ little from biological violence.
The Images of International Stratification in Latin America
Authors: Schwartzman Simon , Mora y Araujo Manual
Published: March 2007

A questionnaire about the perceptions of international stratification in Latin America was applied to a non-representative sample of 327 Latin American students of social sciences, and also to a control group of Norwegian students. The students had to distribute the Latin American republics in three levels of prestige and importance, and a general image of stratification was then inferred. Other questions were concerned with knowledge about Latin America, perceptions of the countries' rank positions on some relevant rank-dimensions, and the criteria used to distribute the countries on levels of prestige and importance.

The analysis of the determinants of the image of stratification showed that this derives from the generalized rank-roles played by the countries as a function of their power and development, and does not depend on specific knowledge about the countries. At the conscious level, nevertheless, there is an exclusive concern about accessible elements, mainly industrialization and education, and a strong refusal of ascribed rank-criteria. This contradiction between values and actual behavior is interpreted as related to the transition of the international system from a feudal-like to a class-like structure.

Some minor variations in the perception of stratification are due to ideological orientations, general level of knowledge and nationality of the respondents, the last factor being the most important. The effect of nationality was explained by an interplay between the country's rank-profile and the place the country occupies in the international structure, as well as the place the subject occupies in the national structure of stratifica tion. It was indicated that the reciprocal perceptions between pairs of countries can be explained by the degree of rank-equivalence and rank-congruence the pair has.
A Vietnam Simulation: a Report On the Canadian/English Joint Project
Authors: Macrae John , Smoker Paul
Published: March 2007

This paper begins with a discussion of models in which two complementary sets of ideas are contrasted. The first set of ideas come from a political scientist, and the second set from an operational researcher. This discussion of models leads naturally to a consideration of simulations from the same two points of view. A difference between the two particular views presented here is that the political scientist views simulation as a model, while the operational researcher views simulation as experimentation on a model.

In discussing the Vietnam simulation particular attention is given to the problem of selecting participants on the basis of political ideology. An important point from this discussion concerns the difficulties of trying to use such a simulation to study policy. [A fairly complete technical description of the assumptions and methodology of the simulation is also included in the Appendix.]

The question of the validity of simulations in some detail. The first of these sections discusses ideas on isomorphism and homomorphism, while the second discusses ideas on validation with reference to experiences with, and outcomes from, the development runs of the Vietnam simulation. This section strengthens the earlier suggestion that the Vietnam simulation is at present best seen as a valuable heuristic and not as a policy-testing instrument.

In the final policy implications sections, it is suggested that ( I ) some efforts are made to show the validity of the simulation before attempting to evaluate policies, and (2) governments concerned with the Vietnam situation use the simulation as an aid to thinking about the Vietnam situation.
Trends in World Airline Patterns
Authors: Gleditsch Nils Petter
Published: March 2007

The article sets forth a general theory of interaction patterns between nations, based on theory and empirical research mainly in social psychology and international relations. A number of predictions generated from the theory are tested on data concerning airline connections for 125 countries in 1930, 1951, 1958, and 1965. Affiliation with a colonial system, geographical distance, and the rank of nations in the international system are all found to have a major impact on the airline patterns at all time-points, with geography and rank increasing in importance and colonial affiliation first increas ing, then decreasing in the last time-period. There conflict lines are investigated; the 'old' East-West conflict, the new Cold War around China, and the Arab-Israeli conflict. While the former sharply limited air interaction in the 'fifties', its impact is now decreasing dramatically, while the new Cold War, if anything, is becoming more pronounced, and the Arab countries and Israel remain totally disconnected as far as air interactions is concerned. The author concludes that this interaction network is developing more rapidly at the top than at the bottom, of the international system, and that the rank of a nation is becoming increasing important over time as a determinant of interaction. A policy which aims at creating a 'welfare world' with decreased dis crepancies between topdogs and underdogs must also take into account the differences in interaction possibilities. A few suggestions are given as how this might be done.
On the Marxist Theory of War and Peace
Authors: Kára Karel
Published: March 2007

This study strives to elucidate some fundamental problems of war and peace from the Marxist viewpoint. War and peace are understood exclusively as social phenomena, not manifestations of any super-natural power outside human society. The study emphasizes the explication of concepts used, and points out confusions on some terms in Marxist literature.

The author examines the problems of war and peace, both in terms of relations among states and of national liberation and civil wars. Here he attempts to elucidate the relationship of war and revolution, notably the Marxist attitude to the so-called 'export of revolution' and the Marxist conception of peaceful and non-violent forms of revolution. He further deals with the avoidability and unavoidability of wars in our times and the problems relating to peaceful coexistence.

The author points out that the tremendous changes in today's world make impossible any solution of these problems in terms of timeworn attitudes. The study also emphasizes the role of thermonuclear weapons in the structure of social phenomena. The emergence of nuclear missile war techniques has changed the social function of wars. Only non- nuclear wars have in essence retained their original social function; but even these involves new elements, and can easily grow into nuclear missile wars.

The author concludes that peace and peaceful co-existence among states is not only possible, but a historical necessity. He outlines the views held by various groups in the international Communist movement on some basic issues and also confronts the Marxist conception of war and peace with the views of some non-Marxist scholars.
Tribalism, Nationalism, Rank-Equilibration, and Social Structure
Authors: Himmelstrand Ulf
Published: March 2007

Some aspects of Nigerian nationalism - particularly as espoused by the Ibo elite in the struggle for Nigerian independence and immediately after - are here interpreted as an al ternative or supplementary response to the same kinds of structural strains which have gener ated impulses to so-called tribalism. Rank-equilibration theory is utilized to provide the ne cessary causal links.

Other approaches are also suggested to amount for the emergence of structural strains, and for the political exploitation of tribalist responses to such strains. Further discussed are a number of attendant micro- and macro-circumstances which might explain why rank-equili bration sometimes stimulates tribalism and secessionism, at other times seems to increase the appeals of a broader nationalism.

Finally, it is maintained that a more durable form of nationalism appears only when based not on individual rank-equilibrating responses, but on the acceptance of common rules within a differentiated and well-balanced system of social exchange such as that hopefully emerging in the new twelve-state federal structure of Nigeria.
Ending the War of the Sicilian Vespers
Authors: Schneidman J.Lee
Published: March 2007

Schneidman's paper treats the case of a war in which major hostilities ended within two years, and the final settlement approximated conditions established within the first year, but where hostilities were nevertheless prolonged or resumed in desultory fashion for two decades. Shneidman provides much useful information on the role of military developments, domestic and external pressures on the various parties, their conflicting objectives, face-saving, etc. He discusses explicitly various peace proposals, an abortive peace treaty in the course of the war, and the conditions under which the war finally did end.
Violence, Ethics and Politics
Authors: Gronow Jukka , Hilppö Jorma
Published: March 2007

The article is a comment on Johan Galtung's 'On the Meaning of Nonviolence' and 'Vio lence, Peace and Peace Research', in which Galtung has tried to clarify and extend the con cept of violence. The present paper claims that there are various omissions and confusions behind Galtung's analysis.

The first theme is ethics. Any exhaustive analysis of a concept has to differentiate between the denotation and the connotation of the concept. Connotation of the concept of violence is very much dependent, through its condemnatory nature, on values, norms and interests of the user of the concept. So, any definition must take these factors into consideration. Galtung has instead tried to neutralize the concept of violence, thus neglecting ethical nature.

His analysis of the dimensions of violence also seems vague. Behind his way of defining violence and behind the differences between the two definitions we detect a general shift from one ethical system (deontological) to another (rule ethics). Galtung seems not to have noticed this, nor the implicit political character of the dimensions. His definitions of violence are thus models of definitions, their contents dependent on users' political (and ethical) atti tudes.

The second theme concerns Galtung's typology of describing and explaining behaviour. When using the concept of structural violence Galtung has to define social structure, and seems in his definitions and examples to be a holist. So the old controversy between metho dological individualism and holism is relevant in this context. Galtung's definition of struc tural violence as a (violent) influence relation with no (direct) subject cannot be accepted, because of the confusion in his concept of the structure. The same kind of confusion under lies his considerations on the relations of the two kinds of violence.

In conclusion, on the basis of the critique above a short comment is made on violence as a theoretical concept in the social sciences. It is claimed that violence is not a useful theo retical concept although an important ethical concept. Thus, it is claimed, the problem of the definition of the concept of violence can be seen in the light of the changing problems of peace research.
Civil Protest in Northern Ireland
Authors: Power Paul F.
Published: March 2007

Conflict means in Northern Ireland include 'civil protest'-nonviolent, extra-parliamentary action of which civil disobedience is a key form. The chief actors using civil protest have been the Protestant Ultras and civil rights partisans who in 1967-69 departed from traditional issues to stress regime performance and community relations. Ultra civil protest stimulated the civil rights movement, decelerated Unionist Government reforms, and aided the minority's disenchantment with gradu alism. Civil protest by the civil rights movement helped to extend some liberties, restructure admin istration, publicize sectarianism and repressive laws, and mobilize parochials. Unachieved have been an end to emergency legislation, the building of social trust, and mass adoption of nonviolent dissent. Basic questions of nationalism and im perialism emerged in 1970-71 when violence prevailed over civil means following Ultra violence which provoked the revival of the IRA. Ultra and civil rights protest contributed to the province's loss of autonomy to the central regime before it suspended the Unionist regime in May 1972, and to both conventional and creative reactions in Britain and the Irish Republic. Minority (Irish Catholic) civil protest resurfaced in August 1971 with internment of suspected revolutionaries, and Ultra civil protest surged with direct British rule. Regardless of who practices civil protest in Ulster, its presence may serve to demythologize the assumption that violence is endemic in Irish con flict and to offer an alternative between political violence and unwilling obedience.
Divided Berlin: One Past and Three Futures
Authors: Merritt Richard L.
Published: March 2007

Postwar developments in divided Berlin have much to tell us about political integration and disintegration. The city endured successive waves of wartime destruction, postwar dismantling, and, after 1948, political division. Structural division was made more permanent after 1961. Not until 1970-1972 could the wartime allies and the two postwar Germanies work out contractual arrange ments to regulate interaction between East and West Berlin. Despite cultural, geographic, and other affinities, the two cities have become and remain separate entities.

One possible but improbable future development is the failure of some party to fulfill the letter and spirit of these agreements, leading to a renewal of cold war tension. Another equally improbable scenario envisions the internal decay of West Berlin or its eventual abandonment by the Federal Republic, leading to its absorption by the German Democratic Republic. A more probable scenario sees East and West Berlin developing as sister cities in separate countries. This would necessitate a clearcut recognition of both the two cities' autonomy from each other as well as the legitimacy of this status quo. Each could then work on matters of mutual interest without fearing a loss of control over its own fate. To the extent that policy planners want detente in the Berlin area, it behooves them to search out not the grandiose schemes for reunification, but rather areas of limited, low-risk, but cumulative cooperation between autonomous entities.
Objective and Subjective Premises of Detente
Authors: Pastusiak Longin
Published: March 2007

Pastusiak attempts to identify the objective and subjective factors that have made the United States enter the road of coexistence and détente with socialist countries. The main objective factors are: changes in the balance of power between East and West; changes in the balance of power within the West; transformations in the configuration of the contemporary world; nuclear parity between USSR and USA; fiasco of previous US policy toward socialist countries; the rising role of domestic priorities in the United States; growing economic interdependence of the American economy; and last but not least the détente policy of the socialist countries which constantly offers the capitalist world the idea of cooperation and coexistence.

The factors of subjective nature are: constructive changes in attitudes of American public opinion toward socialist countries, and the traditional pragmatism of the American establishment. Pastusiak also discusses various reservations raised by the critics of détente in the United states.

Pastusiak comes to the conclusion that objective factors play the most important role in shaping US policy toward détente and thus the process of relaxation of tension between East and West tends to be more durable.
Optical Satellite Tracking: A Case Study in University Participation in Preparation for Space Warfare
Authors: Wilkes Owen , Gleditsch Nils Petter
Published: March 2007

The role of military research and development in the arms race and the role of universities in promoting military R&D have been described in many previous studies. This article describes how two universities (in Norway and New Zealand) took the further step of getting involved in servicing a direct operational need of the US Air Force. A Baker-Nunn satellite tracking camera was operated for the US Air Force by the University of Oslo between 1959 and 1968, then operated by the Air Force itself on the premises of the University of Canterbury (in Christchurch, New Zealand). The military requirement for space tracking is reviewed and the link between space tracking and preparations for space warfare demonstrated. The uni versities appear to have been ill prepared to evaluate the military significance of their own work. In New Zealand public debate about the spacetrack station led the university to renounce its contract with the Air Force, although the station continued in the same location. In Norway, public debate only occurred many years after the contract had run out.
Capitalist Penetration: Concept and Measurement
Authors: Jackson Steven I.
Published: March 2007

Based on a survey of definitions of dependence offered by leading contemporary dependencia theorists, this essay commences by suggesting that the form of dependence critical to dependen cia theory is capitalist penetration. This concept is rigorously defined; inherent problems for both understanding and measurement are detailed. A measurement strategy appropriate to aggregate cross-national studies (or tests) of dependencia theory is suggesed, using such indicators as foreign patents and trademarks, public external debt, direct foreign investment, and imports of capital goods. Applying this strategy to a sample of less developed countries in 1970, measures are generated which are compared with the results of Hveem's efforts to measure a similar concept. While the two measures co-vary for most peripheral countries, the measured outlined here shows much more variation than Hveem's among Latin American countries. This discrimination in the levels of penetration in Latin America is offered as one piece of empirical evidence for the usefulness of this measure.
The China-Indochina Conflict: Notes on the Background and Conflict Resolution — the Case of Neutrality
Authors: Thee Marek
Published: March 2007

Analyzing the political dynamics of the Indochina conflict the paper emphasizes the growing nationalism of the local actors, the impact of the great power involvement, and the role of economic and strategic interests. Historically, precolonial, colonial, and post-colonial realities meet to mold contemporary fortunes. Current dynamics is towards a protracted conflict with two main interrelated focal points: the China-Vietnam and Vietnam- Kampuchean relations.

A key formula for conflict resolution in Indochina is to be found in a new conceptualiza tion of neutrality related both to the record of the two Indochina wars on the one hand, and the non-alignment current which grew parallely in the Third World on the other. A common policy of neutrality by all three Indochina states stressing autonomy and independence, and recognized by an international treaty, offers substantial political and economic advantages to all local actors as well as the great powers involved.
JPR 1964-1980 — What Have We Learnt about Peace?
Authors: Wiberg Hakan
Published: March 2007

The article attempts to summarize the theories and findings on negative peace published in Journal of Peace Research 1964-1980. Following a conceptual discussion, it is divided in sections on peace through balance of power; peace through deterrence; the causes and roles of arms races; causes of wars and other forms of collective violence, and their implications; and findings on how to end wars. After these more dissociative approaches follow the sections on more associative, or at least 'positive' ones: economic sanctions; non-violent action; world peace through world law; integration and 'peace structures'; the roots and roles of socialization; and the background and role of the peace movement. There is no attempt at evaluating these approaches as against each other.
Polish Peaceful Revolution: An Anatomy of Polarization
Authors: Staniszkis Jadwiga
Published: March 2007

This paper discusses the processes which make it very difficult in Poland to stabilize a quasi-liberal form of an authoritarian regime, based on a 'social contract' legitimacy on one hand and on bureaucratic- conciliatory patterns of problem-solving on the other.

Given deepening economic crisis and the disintegration of the state administration, three phases of the 'Solidarity' union's development are outlined: 'self-limiting revolution', 'identity crisis' and 'open conspiracy.'

The analysis of political processes inside 'Solidarity' is then paired with an analysis of parallel processes developing inside the power apparatus, based on the erosion of traditional roles of the communist party.

Concluding remarks stress certain similarities between modernizing functions of 'Solidarity' in Poland and Leninist communist party in Russia.
Communication and Peace. The Empirical and Theoretical Relation between Two Categories in Social Sciences
Authors: Becker Jörg
Published: March 2007

If mass-media reception as well as production are at once expression and motor of structural violence; if communications technology can be understood, historically, only as an integral part of the emerging military industrial complex; if the access to and the power over the mass media are unequal and unbalanced; if, indeed, the 'law of universal violence' (Adorno and Horkheimer) obtains, then the mass media can fulfill their original hoped for function as 'peace-bringers' under rare and exceptional circumstances. The representation of violence in the mass media, then, is part and parcel of the universal violence of the media themselves. Only when the mass media open up to a process to democratization on all levels - to the so-called New International Information Order - will the mass media fulfill their function as contributors to a peaceful society.
The Political Economy of East-South Relations
Authors: Berrios Ruben
Published: March 2007

The discussion and overall assessment of East-West balance has ignored the economic dimensions of East-South relations. This paper examines the political and economic relations between the industrialized socialist CMEA countries of Eastern Europe and the Third World, focusing on the dynamics of trade, aid and technology transfer. It attempts to achieve a greater understanding of the recent evolution, its present state and possible developments in East-South relations. As the Soviet and East European stake has increased in the international order they have become an alternative source of trade, credit and technology for the South. However, their active involvement in the South still leaves much to be desired and is also a stark illustration of the handicaps they suffer as a result of their limited international capabilities.
Review Essay: Cold War — An Aberration or the Normality of Contemporary International Politics?
Authors: Skarstein Rune
Published: March 2007

This review focuses primarily on some central premises in Fred Halliday's book The Making of the Second Cold War. Halliday's viewthat the First and Second Cold Wars are basically similar is questioned. Furthermore, it is pointed out that whereas Halliday presents a long list of factors or causes of Cold War II, he fails to specify their relative importance and interrelationships. Finally, an underlying assumption in Halliday's book appears to be that Detente was some kind of self-evident and normal situation, whereas the Second Cold War is an aberration in need of explanation. In contrast to this perspective, the reviewer argues that cold war policies by U.S. governments are the normal situation. What actually needs explana tion is the the period of Dentente. However, Halliday's book is considered to be a useful summary of im portant developments in post-war international politicis.
The Determinants of Defence Expenditure in the ASEAN Region
Authors: Harris Geoffrey
Published: March 2007

This article attempts to determine the extent to which domestic economic conditions have influenced le vels of defence expenditure in five ASEAN countries since the early 1960s. Whilst aspects of data qua lity preclude a precise conclusion, it seems that domestic economic forces do exert at least a moderate influence on defence expenditure. Defence expenditure in the current year was positively related to de fence expenditure in the previous year, and to the government's budgetary position in that year. The ba lance of payments position exerted a strong indirect influence through its effect on government revenue. Given its personnel component, defence expenditure appears less prone to cutbacks than some other government expenditure categories in the face of overall government expenditure reductions.
Defense Expenditures, External Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries
Authors: Looney Robert E. , Frederiksen P.C.
Published: March 2007

This study reexamines the relationship between growth and defense spending in developing countries. It differs from previous studies as it recognizes differences in the borrowing capacity of each country. We hypothesize that a negative relationship will exist between defense and economic growth in countries which are financially resource constrained, and a positive relationship will exist in countries which are relatively resource unconstrained. A factor and discriminate analysis are used to group countries. The variables chosen for the factor analysis depict a country's external debt, structural condition, growth, and balance of payments position. Regression equations were estimated for the total sample and each group, with the growth in Gross Domestic Product as the dependent variable. The results confirm the hypothesized positive relationship between defense and growth in the unconstrained group, but was not confirmed for the constrained group. The results suggest the importance of variables such as foreign ex change, net inflows of capital, external debt, and the growth of the public sector in general, on economic growth.
Decision-Making in the Face of Uncertainty: Attributions of Norwegian and American Officials
Authors: Heradstveit Daniel , Bonham G. Matthew
Published: March 2007

Recent research suggests that when decision-makers are confronted with uncertainty they are more likely to engage in simple-minded thinking, such as the judgmental heuristics that have been studied by attribution theorists. In this article we examine how foreign policy decision-makers in Norway and the United States struggled with the uncertainties that surrounded a series of incidents in northern Norway involving Soviet ships. The analysis of cognitive maps based on open-ended interviews with the deci sion-makers reveals that their central beliefs influenced the way they processed information and made decisions. As predicted by attribution theory, Norwegians attributed their own actions to situational constraints, but they were more inclined to explain Soviet behavior as a function of dispositional factors. The American officials, on the other hand, interpreted Norwegian behavior dispositionally, and Soviet behavior situationally. The policy implications of the attribution behavior of the decision-makers sug gest a number of policy recommendations for both countries.
Trends in World Trade in Durable Consumer Goods
Authors: Maizels A. , Thomas R. W. , Boross L.
Published: March 2007

In general the importance of consumer goods in world trade is declining. But this is not true of durable consumer goods. From 1937 to 1950 this group held its share of total trade in manufactured goods at about 7 per cent; from 1950 to 1957 the figure rose to 8 per cent; and in 1958—mainly because of the sharp rise in shipments of cars from Europe to the United States—it went up to nearly 9 per cent (table 9).
100th Issue of the Review : The Nature of the Inflation Process
Authors: Bispham J.A.
Published: March 2007

This short essay begins by contrasting—in a rather broad brush manner—the two major types of explanation of the core of inflation in the United Kingdom. At one time these might have been labelled cost-push and demand-pull. It is now recognised, however, that the distinction cannot be made quite so sharply. It is perhaps better to speak of degrees of exogeneity of inflation—independence, that is, from other purely economic factors such as the pressure of demand and unemployment. The case of those who see important exogenous push elements in inflation may be labelled the eclectic—or, perhaps, the newspaper reader's—view. The other comprises the rather academic set of views associated with monetarist economists.
100th Issue of the Review : Forecasting and Economic Policy
Authors: Blackaby F.T.
Published: March 2007

For good economic policy, two things are needed. First, there has to be clarity about objectives. The purpose of policy is to improve outcomes. The policymaker, therefore, has to know what an improved outcome would look like. There is, I think, not much dispute about this requirement: it is common ground that it would have been an improved outcome in Britain if unemployment and inflation had been lower and economic growth had been faster. There may be differences about the importance to be given to the various objectives: but that is a fairly minor matter.
Labour-Skills, R and D and Capital Requirements in the International Trade and Investment of the United Kingdom 1968-78
Authors: Katrak Homi
Published: March 2007

During recent years observers of the UK economic scene have frequently commented on its ‘low level of technology’ and its ‘poor technological performance’. Translated into more specific terms, such observations seem to refer to the level of innovative activity in the UK and/or to its supply of engineers and other skilled-labour, relative to that in other advanced industrialised countries. Admittedly inter-country comparisons of these variables are often difficult, as different countries may use different indicators (and definitions) of innovative activity, have different types of educational qualifications, etc. Nevertheless, recent research does make possible some general comparisons. Pavitt (1981) reports, on the basis of industry-wide data on Research and Development (R and D) and international patenting, that innovative activity in the UK has in recent years been lagging behind that of its international competitors and the observation of Albu (1980) that in the supply of well qualified engineers and technologists the UK compares unfavourably with Japan and West Germany is reinforced by Prais (1981) in a more detailed comparative study of the UK and West Germany. Pending further research, these studies provide tentative evidence of the UK's relatively ‘low level of technology’.
Macroeconomic Policy in Germany and Britain
Authors: Barker Kate , Britton Andrew , Eastwood Fiona , Major Robin
Published: March 2007

This time last year we published in theReviewan article comparing macroeconomic policy in Britain and France. That article and the present one are both based on a three-year project in which we compare events and policies in Britain with those in the other major European countries.
Productivity in Services
Authors: Ray George F.
Published: March 2007

The service industries—that is, all activities apart from agriculture and the production and construction industries—account for more than half of gross domestic product and employ about two thirds of the civilian labour force. The size of the employed labour force alone makes a brief analysis of productivity worthwhile; additional interest stems from the importance of the contribution of the internationally tradeable services to the balance of payments.
World Depression and the Price Level
Authors: Brown A.J.
Published: March 2007

The object of this article is to examine the behaviour of the price level in major world depression, mainly for the sake of any light that may be thrown on the process of price formation in general and on the present situation in particular.
Chapter II. The World Economy
Authors: Barrell R.J. , Eastwood Fiona
Published: March 2007

Between June and July the dollar rose by around 5 per cent against the other major currencies, despite central bank intervention to hold the dollar down. There have been two major factors behind this strength. Firstly, the US trade figures improved in April and May and were considerably better than the market had anticipated. This reflected both some reduction in the volume and value of imports and an increase in the level of exports. Sentiment towards the US dollar has also been affected by the strength of growth in the other major industrial economies.
The UK Economy
Authors: Yoang Garry
Published: March 2007

The UK economy will soon be completing the third year of recovery from the low point of the business cycle reached in the second quarter of 1992. Since that time output has risen by close to 8 per cent and now stands at 4 per cent above its previous peak. Over the recovery phase of the cycle, output in the onshore economy has grown at an average rate of 2.7 per cent per annum, with the annual rate of expansion accelerating to reach 3.7 per cent in the last quarter of 1994. This rate of growth is certainly in excess of that which the economy can sustain in the long term. Unsustainable growth eventually leads to inflationary pressure as firms, faced with strong product demand, push up their prices. Depending on the attitude of the monetary authorities, this leads either to a period of higher inflation or to tighter policy and higher interest rates to prevent inflation speeding up.
The Role of Macroeconomic Models in the Policy Design Process
Authors: Westaway Peter F.
Published: March 2007

This note examines the role of macroeconomic models in the policy design process. It discusses some of the general issues that need to be addressed if macroeconomic models are to make an important contribution to the policy debate. More topically, it illustrates the role that can be played by using policy optimisation techniques on the National Institute UK model to examine some of the macroeconomic policy options currently facing policymakers.
Misalignment, Debt Accumulation and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rates
Authors: Artis Michael J. , Taylor Mark P.
Published: March 2007

This article deals with hysteresis in the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate (FEER) arising from misalignment. When the actual real exchange rate departs from its FEER value, current account realisations—and consequently, debt service obli gations—will differ from those assumed in the initial FEER calculation, necessitating its recomputation. The article derives a formal expression for this hysteresis effect in the FEER, and derives and applies rules of thumb for computing the hysteresis effect when considering the rate of approach of an exchange rate toward its FEER value.
Cesar Chavez and the Farm Workers
Authors: Zerzan John
Published: March 2007

I told the workers they had to be prepared for the tortures of success. Success in our business, the trade union business, means getting workers to middle-class status. You succeed and Huelga is just going to be an exciting recollection. The guy who carried a banner in 1966—well, in five years you're going to have a hard time getting him to a union meeting: Revolutions become institutions, that's a truism of our business.
Teaching Mandarin Tones to Adult English Speakers: Analysis of Difficulties with Suggested Remedies
Authors: Lin William C.J.
Published: March 2007

For adult English speaking students of Mandarin, tones pose a very difficult hurdle to pass over.

This paper first identifies some sources of difficulties, then classifies and analyzes them. Suggestions to remedy the difficulties have also been made as follows: (1) a new determinancy of the low- dipping contour of the 3rd tone as the norm with other contours as derivations from this norm; (2) new tone drill materials written on music scales, which help the learner to transform from tonemic abstractions to phonetic realities.

Tests and experiments have been carried out from 1980 to 1983. The results have confirmed the effectiveness of these suggestions.
An anticipatory fuzzy logic controller utilizing neural net prediction
Authors: McCullough Claire L.
Published: March 2007

The goal of this project was to evaluate control fuzzy logic for applicability to con trol of flexible structures. This was done by applying these methods to control of the Control Structures Interaction Suitcase Demonstrator developed at Marshall Space Flight Center. Both traditional and new anticipatory fuzzy logic schemes were applied to the system, and results were compared to that of the system with a standard Linear Quadratic Regulator as a controller. In order to perform the state prediction necessary to the anticipatory fuzzy logic controller, a neural network was trained to emulate the behavior of the system, based on input-output data for the system. Behavior of the controllers was compared under ideal conditions, under noisy conditions, and with randomly chosen state parameters perturbed by + or-50%. Fuzzy systems demonstrated robustness to added noise and to changes in plant parameters; the anticipatory fuzzy system exhibited superior performance when compared to both traditional fuzzy and LQR controller systems. The anticipatory fuzzy neural controller exhibits similar properties, but does not require that any mathematical model for the system exist. Thus it can be applied to many real world systems for which other control methods can not be used.
Traditional and Tandem AGV System Layouts: A Simulation Study
Authors: Choi Hoo-Gon , Kwon Hyuk-Jin , Lee Jim
Published: March 2007

The objective of this paper is to evaluate two common types of AGVS layouts: a traditional "multiple vehicles" layout and a tandem layout with single vehicle loops. Discrete event simulation models were developed in SIMAN to test various system design and operation parameters in the two layouts , including number of vehicles needed, AGV speed, job assignment rule and job arrival distribution. In the simulation models, zone control methods were implemented to reduce AGV blocking, and several performance measures were collected for output analyses. Waller-Duncan Bayes Least Significant Difference (BLSD) tests were applied on the output to compare the two layouts and to identify parameters affecting the system performance. The results revealed that the traditional layout could produce a shorter job flow time and AGV waiting time in the stage area, while the tandem layout might perform better based on the number of jobs completed and vehicle blocking time. The difference in performance was significantly affected by the vehicle speed and the job arrival distribution.
Basic Physics and Numerical Modelling of Climate
Authors: Bradley James H.
Published: March 2007

Despite the basic significance of the environment to many needs of Mission Earth and humans, attainable climate models are likely to provide only general guidance to world simulation in the desirable time-frame, not detailed changes and statistical properties. Some aspects of climate simulation, however, illustrate difficulties that may appear in other large-scale, complicated simulations. The fundamental physics of atmospheric waves, their forcing functions and their interactions are described. As a thermodynamically open system, the atmosphere is not very close to macroscopic local detailed balance. There are interactions across many scales of physics, particularly in the budgets of latent heat and radiative flux divergence. The carbon dioxide stored in the ocean appears to be much greater than that for equilibrium with the present partial pressure in the atmosphere. Although release of stored methane appears the most likely large-scale violation of Le Châtelier's principle, it is not now known how far the atmosphere is from non-extremality of the entropy generation rate, or other major transition in thermodynamic regime, nor whether such phenomena are attainable beyond a previously suggested duality in ocean transports. One suggestion is that the climate system historically has switched between two major regimes as a result of internal and external fluctuations.
Plant Combined Simulation for Compost Production Starting from Sewage Sludge
Authors: Giribone P. , Bruzzone A.G. , Cereda P. , Dell'Acqua R.F. , Rivarolo D.
Published: March 2007

Waste treatment is a major social and economic problem. In Europe, and in Italy in particular, this market is plagued by a great amount of uncertainty. Thus plant operation must be studied carefully under different economic and technical conditions to make such plants more economical.
Using Walsh Functions to Test a New Composite Sherif-Dear (CSD) Random Number Generator
Authors: Sherif Yosef S. , Dear Roger G.
Published: March 2007

A test using Walsh functions is performed to test the quality of the output of a new Composite Sherif-Dear (CSD) random number generator. The Walsh functions based test shows that the output of the (CSD) generator satisfies the criteria of good random number generators.
A Veterinary Practice Simulator Based on the Integration of Expert System and Process Modeling
Authors: Steward Duane , Standridge Charles R.
Published: March 2007

Health care delivery systems of all kinds must operate under resource constraints. This gives rise to design issues that are best addressed by engineering methods such as simulation modeling and analysis. A simulator to help deal with veterinary practice design, planning, and operation issues has been developed. An expert system for processing patient appointments was integrated with traditional process world view modeling capabilities to produce the simulator. Simulator input variables and performance measures are described. An example application in practice operation and design, including extensive statistical analysis, is presented.