bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A Desktop-OR Success: Modeling Coast Guard Buoy Tender Operations
Authors: Bucciarelli Mark , Brown Kip
Published: October 2008

We created a desktop-OR decision support system to support the Coast Guard’s planned replacement of the 37-vessel seagoing and coastal buoy tender fleet. Using sophisticated GIS routines to build travel networks and a rudimentary traveling salesman problem heuristic to generate routes, we proposed a seven-vessel decrease in the fleet, representing a capital cost savings of $350 million and personnel reduction of 500 billets. The commandant presented these results to Congress, and the Senate’s fiscal year 1993 US Department of Transportation’s appropriations bill fully funded the replacement request and commended the Coast Guard’s analytical effort. The success of this application suggests a dynamic for the burgeoning desktop-OR market; the interface between operations research models and their algorithms is far more developed than the interface between actual problems and their models, and success will come to those who facilitate this latter mapping.
The Teachers’ Forum: Six Key Modeling Heuristics
Authors: Powell Stephen G.
Published: October 2008

In a recent column I described a course in the art of modeling I have taught for a number of years to MBA students. This is an elective, second-year course. The students typically have a minimal background in the core tools of management science (optimization, decision analysis, and simulation). The purpose of the course is not to deepen their knowledge of MS/OR tools per se but to strengthen their fundamental modeling skills. The course is styled on the art studio, in which students learn to paint by painting under the watchful eye of an instructor. In this course, the students work on a series of practical modeling assignments, each of which is taken from a real situation. The students build and analyze models as they need them to solve the problem at hand, without any cues as to which tools or approach to use.
Improving the Title Hold Process in a Large Public Library: A Model-Based Policy Analysis
Authors: Gleeson Michael E. , Peterson Michael D.
Published: October 2008

We conducted an operational analysis of the title-reservation process in a major city library system because the library wanted to improve patron satisfaction. Our study of the system’s transactional data led us to discover several important causes of request backlogs, including theft and congestion. Because the congestion failed to meet standard queuing model assumptions, we developed a simple alternative approach capturing the range of operational controls available to the library. We used this model to recommend a combination of changes which promise improved performance without major new expenditures.
Achieving Multiple Timeliness Goals for Auto Loans: A Case for Process Control
Authors: Mehring Joyce S.
Published: October 2008

To attract auto loan business from car dealers, credit companies focus on a quick credit decision, quick car payment to the dealer, and quick setup of the buyer’s loan account. Managing loan processing to achieve these timeliness goals for several customer groups is challenging. One credit company found that while dealers were paid within the desired time, some customers waited three times longer than others for their account setup. This company must manage processing for several products with different process flows and with highly varying volume. To help the credit company manage loan processing, I worked with a team of credit company employees to develop and implement a statistical process control approach to monitor the timeliness of car payment and account setup for different customer groups. The loan-processing department now uses this approach weekly to help it identify dispatching, labor assignments, and other operating procedures that cause excessively fast or lengthy times. By modifying its staffing and operating policies, the company has provided customer groups with comparable response times, reduced the duration of poor service, and improved labor productivity.
The Evolution of Energy Modeling at the Federal Energy Administration and the Energy Information Administration
Authors: Murphy Frederic H. , Shaw Susan H.
Published: October 2008

Energy modeling at the Energy Information Administration started with the Project Independence Evaluation System in 1974 and moved to the Intermediate Future Forecasting System in 1983, which was replaced by the National Energy Modeling System in 1993. The models were shaped by the forces affecting energy markets and by policy concerns. These forces included changing world markets for oil, shortages of natural gas, and environmental concerns. The models have been used to analyze legislative proposals, and these analyses have met with a variety of reactions that ranged from extreme gratitude to rage. Working as policy analysts when energy issues were at the center of national attention was exciting, exhausting, rewarding, and at times dismaying.
The Evolution of Supply-Chain-Management Models and Practice at Hewlett-Packard
Authors: Lee Hau L. , Billington Corey
Published: October 2008

Late in the 1980s, Hewlett-Packard (HP) faced inventories mounting into the billions of dollars and alarming customer dissatisfaction with its order fulfillment process. HP produces computation and measurement products whose supply chains include manufacturing integrated circuits, board assembly, final assembly, and delivery to customers. To reduce inventory and improve order fulfillment, HP called on an internal team of industrial engineers and management scientists augmented by academic collaboration. The team used an iterative process, enriched by the interaction of model development and application. HP reaped benefits well beyond its manufacturing operations, extending to diverse functions throughout the organization. Similarly, the academic partners have infused their research with real-life experience. The supply-chain methodology is now mature, and HP is transferring the technology into the product divisions.
Evolutionary Change in Product Management: Experiences in the Car Rental Industry
Authors: Carroll William J. , Grimes Richard C.
Published: October 2008

Car rental companies offer customers various combinations of car types, rental periods, and pickup and return locations, as well as temporary insurance and refueling options. Hertz developed its yield management system (YMS) to help decide the availability of these combinations of products over time. The YMS integrates information management technology, sophisticated operations research techniques, and information from existing Hertz decision support models that solve the closely-related problems of pricing, fleet planning, and fleet deployment.
An OR/MS Guide to the Internet
Authors: Sodhi ManMohan S.
Published: October 2008

How can operations research/management science (OR/MS) professionals take advantage of the Internet, a global network of computers? One avenue is communication forums—e-mail list servers and Usenet news groups—for networking with professionals from OR/MS and other areas. The second avenue is accessing and creating repositories that archive information, such as software, technical papers, and conference programs. Online lists cover both repositories and forums. Tools allow users to access these repositories and to share information with research collaborators around the world. The Internet can be useful, but users should not expect too much.
The Evolution of Draft Lotteries in Professional Sports: Back to Moral Hazard?
Authors: Gerchak Yigal , Mausser Helmut E. , Magazine Michael J.
Published: October 2008

In several North American professional sports, teams choose (draft) new players each year in inverse order of their end-of-season standings. Since drafting early is valued highly, teams that are not doing well might be tempted not to try hard in the last few games of the season, since by losing they might improve their draft position. To alleviate this potential problem, the National Basketball Association, since 1985, has held an annual draft lottery among the teams that did not qualify for that season’s playoffs. Initially the lottery was one of equal chance; it is now heavily biased in favor of the weakest teams. A very biased draft lottery has also just been instituted by the National Hockey League. We have calculated the probabilities of different draft positions by a team’s regular season standings and the resulting expected draft positions for all these lottery formats. For current schemes the expected draft positions turn out to be almost what they would have been without a lottery.
Arachne: Planning the Interoffice Facilities Network at NYNEX
Authors: Barnea Tal , Benanav Dan , Dutta Kabir , Eisenberg Ivy , Euchner Jim , Gilbert Elissa , Goodarzi Afshin , Lee Edwin , Lin Yu-Ling , Martin John , Peterson Justin , Pope Randy , Salgame Rangu , Sevitsky Gary , Sardana Sanjeev
Published: October 2008

Arachne is a decision-support system developed by NYNEX to automate its interoffice facilities planning. Planning is a highly complex process, and the decisions made result in the expenditure of hundreds of millions of dollars each year. By integrating heuristic rules and optimization techniques in an innovative manner, Arachne has fundamentally changed the nature of network planning at NYNEX. Arachne improves the reliability and quality of the network plans, reduces the time it takes to complete the planning task, and has led to savings of at least $33 million dollars to date. In addition to supporting the planning task, Arachne also provides a means of exploring new network technologies and planning strategies.
Generating Scenarios for the Towers Perrin Investment System
Authors: Mulvey John M.
Published: October 2008

The Towers Perrin company applies integrative asset-liability planning to the problem of pension management. The planning system depends upon a stochastic economic projection model—called CAP:Link—for generating economic factors and asset returns via a set of representative scenarios. Each scenario depicts a coherent set of outcomes. The projections span a long-run horizon—10 to 40 years. Risks and rewards for alternative investment strategies are determined via dynamic asset and liability allocation over the scenarios. The approach has been implemented in 12 countries in Europe, North America, and Asia.
The Teachers' Forum: Management Science with Spreadsheets for MBAs at Indiana University
Authors: Winston Wayne L.
Published: October 2008

A highly successful spreadsheet-based management science course for MBA students at Indiana University deals mainly with simulation and mathematical optimization with spreadsheet solvers and includes many applications of management science that are extremely relevant to these students. They seem to prefer the spreadsheet approach over the traditional management science approach.
Editorial: Which Universities Contribute to the Practice Literature? The First Interfaces Ranking
Authors: Rothkopf Michael H.
Published: October 2008

Organizations and professions get what they measure and reward. If we want educational programs to contribute to OR/MS practice, we have to figure out how to measure such contributions. The INFORMS Academic/Practitioner Interface Committee has discussed the possibility of ranking or rating academic programs on their contributions to OR/MS practice. Many difficulties stand in its way—difficulties in implementation and, especially, in defining the rating scale. How should a scale measure such factors as training students for practice, contributing to the practice literature, contributing to theory useful for practice, and conducting cooperative projects with industry? How should it combine such measures?

Such overall rankings would necessarily be highly subjective and difficult to implement well. As editor of a publication focused on practice, I am interested in a more limited goal. I want a scale that measures one aspect of a university's contribution to practice: its contribution to the practice literature. I want deans who promulgate goals for their programs to have available a measure of such contributions. To encourage and reward such contributions, I want recognition for the programs that make them. To that end, I developed an index—the Interfaces index of contributions to the practice literature. Like all measurement schemes, it has limitations. Even so, when I applied it to the literature from 1988 to 1994, I obtained some interesting results and a ranking of universities. I plan to update the index and the rankings periodically.
Development of a DSS for Fixed-Income Securities Using OOP
Authors: Sodhi ManMohan S.
Published: October 2008

I developed a simplified version of a decision support system for Health Net. Health Net needed a system to manage fixed-income portfolios worth $370 million and to analyze 36 different types of fixed-income securities and derivatives for risk and return. I integrated the required mathematical models and database system in the object-oriented paradigm by uniformly implementing mathematical models for interest rate movements and cash flows of securities, database entities, and the interface as interacting objects.
System Operations Advisor: A Real-Time Decision Support System for Managing Airline Operations at United Airlines
Authors: Rakshit Ananda , Krishnamurthy Nirup , Yu Gang
Published: October 2008

Managing daily operations for United Airlines with its size and geographic scope of operations is complex and challenging. Because resources are tightly coupled, even minor perturbations could erode planned operations. United Airlines deploys the System Operations Advisor (SOA), a real-time decision support system at its operations control center (OCC) to increase the effectiveness of its operational decisions. We developed the SOA and implemented it in August 1992. It has been in operation since then. From October 1993 to March 1994, its application saved more than 27,000 minutes of potential delays, which translates to $540,000 savings in delay costs, and the number of flight delays charged to aircraft controllers in systems operations control has dropped by 50 percent since 1992.
Creativity in OR/MS: From Technique to Epistemology
Authors: Tsoukas Haridimos , Papoulias Demetrios B.
Published: October 2008

James R. Evans has made an interesting contribution with his articles on creativity in OR/MS practice. His main conclusion is that OR/MS practitioners ought to take creativity seriously if they want to be effective problem solvers, and he has suggested a number of techniques that would help them.

In a sense, creativity has always been part of the OR/MS tradition, albeit in an embryonic form. Since its early days, for example, OR/MS has been an interdisciplinary undertaking that encouraged bringing insights from different disciplines to bear on a particular problem. Similarly, as Evans has reminded us, OR/MS theory building involves elements of creativity, although this is less related to OR/MS practice per se and more to generating new ideas and novel insights, an activity characteristic of all scientific research.
A Simulation Model Solved the Problem of Scheduling Drilling Rigs at Clyde Dam
Authors: Premachandra I. M. , Gonzalez Liliana
Published: October 2008

The Clyde Dam in New Zealand is located in an area more unstable than was thought when it was designed. Therefore, Electricorp has taken additional precautions to ensure the stability of the hillsides surrounding it, constructing an underground grout curtain of 1,362 meters along the Clutha River. A grout curtain is constructed by drilling holes in the rock and injecting concrete into them. With a budget of millions of dollars for hiring drilling rigs, the construction company wanted to minimize the idling time of the drilling rigs and finish the project quickly. We developed a simulation model that enabled it to find an efficient drilling schedule, saving about NZ$580,000 on hiring costs for drilling rigs (seven percent of drilling hours hired) and 10 weeks (about 26 percent of project completion time).
Simulation Modeling for Process Reengineering in the Telecommunications Industry
Authors: Lee Youngho , Elcan Amie
Published: October 2008

Motivated by technological innovation and increasingly competitive markets, U S WEST Communications has been reengineering its core service processes to improve customer loyalty, cost effectiveness, and efficiency of services. The operations research modeling group at U S WEST Advanced Technologies has developed a service process simulation model that identifies where and when process reengineering efforts should occur. In a successful implementation, we analyzed the quantitative impact of changes in key process parameters, such as the error rate and staffing level of the service center, in the metropolitan area of Minneapolis and St. Paul. U S WEST is deploying an outgrowth of this process modeling to support process reengineering in other major metropolitan areas in its 14-state region.
A Quality Definition Continuum
Authors: Seawright Kristie W. , Young Scott T.
Published: October 2008

Managers have recognized the strategic importance of quality in current competitive markets. With no universally accepted definition of quality, managers, customers, and researchers communicate with difficulty. We describe and organize sets of quality definitions into a continuum, illustrating the relationships between definitions. We describe the impact of each of these descriptions upon the attainment of a sustainable competitive advantage for the firm. The quality definition continuum can serve as the basis for understanding some principles of total quality management implementation and success.
The Occasional Observer: College Athletics, a Dollar Auction Game
Authors: Murphy Frederic H.
Published: October 2008

Athletics has been an important part of the US college experience for well over a century. The benefits of participating in sports are clear. However, intercollegiate athletics has been problematical almost from inception. We think of the problems as new and a product of profits from television.
Fine Tuning Regulated Telephone Prices
Authors: Munson Charles L.
Published: October 2008

State public service commissions (PSCs) regulate many rates for local telephone companies. The rates are calculated to return a predetermined revenue stream. However, rounding errors in the computational procedure often produce rates that either generate too much revenue or do not generate the full authorized revenue. Most PSCs allowed Contel Telephone Company to adjust certain rates by a nickel to address this problem. A trial-and-error approach to nickel adjusting, while helping the situation, was often time-consuming and still left the full revenue potential unrealized. I developed a one-constraint binary integer program that eliminated this annoying predicament.
Misapplications Reviews: Good News Is No News?
Authors: Barnett Arnold , Goranson Jesse
Published: October 2008

It is a truism that the media focus on unpleasant events: the plane that crashes gets more attention than the millions that do not. But such asymmetry is not supposed to accompany the reporting of statistics, which aim to offer perspective by summarizing lots of accumulated experience. Still, one wonders. Do unnerving numbers tend to get greater emphasis than those that are reassuring?
An Analysis of Alternative Locations and Service Areas of American Red Cross Blood Facilities
Authors: Jacobs Derya A. , Silan Murat N. , Clemson Barry A.
Published: October 2008

We investigated a facility relocation problem for the mid-Atlantic region of the American Red Cross (ARC) in Norfolk, Virginia. The ARC was concerned with the feasibility and effect of a proposed facility relocation on its blood collection and distribution. We developed optimization models to provide insights into its current scheduling of blood collections and distributions as well as the changes imposed by this proposed relocation. As a result of our analysis and recommendations, ARC decided to postpone its facility relocation and to optimize the operations of its existing facilities.
Undergraduate Academic Teaching and Manufacturing Industry Requirements: A Comparative Analysis
Authors: Taj Shahram , Hormozi Amir M. , Mirshab Bahman
Published: October 2008

The United States has been losing its manufacturing base because of severe international competition. One way to help improve the US economy is to revitalize its manufacturing sector. Training workers and equipping managers with the necessary tools and competencies to help organizations improve production and operations will be vital in this effort. We conducted a study with two purposes: (1) to obtain a list of required and elective courses in operations management (OM) and industrial management (IDM) programs offered by US universities at the undergraduate level, and (2) to rank these courses in order of importance in different programs and for five proposed concentrations.
20/30 Hindsight: The New Pavement Optimization in the Arizona State Highway Network
Authors: Wang Kelvin C. P. , Zaniewski John P.
Published: October 2008

In the early 1980s, the Arizona Department of Transportation (ADOT) launched a pioneering effort to develop a unique pavement management system (PMS) [K. Golabi, R. B. Kulkarni, G. B. Way. 1982. “A statewide pavement management system.” Interfaces Vol. 12, No. 6, 5–21]. The ADOT PMS uses a Markov process to describe the deterioration of pavement conditions due to traffic and weather and the improvement that can be achieved at various funding levels. Linear programming is used to minimize the total cost to the agency for maintaining the highway network at specified standards. The department performs the optimization across the entire network of pavements in the state, hence, it is a “network optimization system” (NOS). ADOT and Woodward-Clyde Consultants (WWC) won the 1982 CPMS/TIMS award for management science achievement for this work.
A Truck Scheduling System Improves Efficiency in the Forest Industries
Authors: Weintraub Andres , Epstein Rafael , Morales Ramiro , Seron Jorge , Traverso Pier
Published: October 2008

Timber transport plays an important part in the overall operational costs of forest industries. Depending on their size, typical large forest firms move between 500,000 and 3,000,000 cubic meters a year, with transportation budgets ranging from US $5 to 20 million. We developed an operative and computerized system, ASICAM, based on a simulation process with heuristic rules, to support daily truck scheduling decisions. It can be used on any personal computer and runs for about three minutes on a PC 486 for larger problems. ASICAM has been implemented in eight of the largest forest firms in Chile, reducing costs and improving overall operation and work efficiency.
A Four-Day Study Helps Home Building Move Indoors
Authors: Mullens Michael A. , Toleti Rajesh
Published: October 2008

By simulating Glaize Components' new wall panel production line, we sought to increase the capacity of this advanced CAD/CAM flexible manufacturing system. Developing the model was complicated by healthy industry skepticism, a short time window, and limited resources. By adhering strictly to a condensed, yet comprehensive project plan and using high quality animation, the project team overcame these barriers. Simulation results suggested that Glaize could increase production line capacity eight percent by resequencing, alternating between interior and exterior panels. Gaining confidence from the simulation results, Glaize tried alternating panels, and it worked. The change has yielded a seven to 10 percent increase in line capacity with minimal increases in capital and labor.
Evaluation of Generator Maintenance Schedules at Entergy Electric System
Authors: Taha Hamdy A. , Wolf Harold Matthew
Published: October 2008

Manual evaluation of the impact of detrimental events on outage schedules in electric power plants is both subjective and time-consuming. We developed a decision-tree-based methodology that converts the manual evaluation process into a computerized package. It uses a special statistic instead of the (less-useful) expected value analysis that typifies textbook presentations. It also provides a systematic procedure for determining the branches and probabilities of the decision tree based on historical data. The Entergy Electric System has used the new tool for over three years to enable the outage planner to isolate, high-risk time periods and to develop timely maintenance schedules in response to short-notice changes.
The Variance Paradox and Its Implications for Japanese Production Theory
Authors: Gupta Diwakar , Srinivasan Mandyam M.
Published: October 2008

In a recent Interfaces article, Zangwill [Zangwill, W. I. 1992. The limits of Japanese production theory. Interfaces 22(5, September–October), 14–25.] presented a mathematical model of a production system and used it to show that reducing mean setup times can increase the overall work-in-process inventory in the model. He claims that such counter-intuitive observations “expose a flaw in the current theory” and that a new and improved production theory is needed to resolve the observed paradox. Many researchers from academia and from industry responded, protesting the validity of Zangwill's assertions. We show that the paradox Zangwill observed can occur even when the production system is operated using a policy chosen from the optimal class of policies, where optimal is taken to mean minimizing the expected total work in the system. In Zangwill's example, the mean setup time is reduced without any change in the setup time variance, which is unrealistic, and no well-managed production system will ever operate in this manner. Thus, while some parts of his article might be defensible, others clearly are not.
Finding the Yellow Brick Road: Part 1, “Toto, I Have a Feeling We're Not in Kansas Anymore!”
Authors: Powell Warren B. , Mayoras Donald E.
Published: October 2008

Sometimes, there is more truth in fiction than in publicly available data. This story by Warren B. Powell, a leading consultant on truck dispatching systems and Donald E. Mayoras, the president of a trucking company, about the implementation of a truck dispatching system, is too long to run as a single article; instead it appears in serial form. This is the first installment of eight.
A Survey of Operational Expert Systems in Business (1980–1993)
Authors: Eom Sean B.
Published: October 2008

I surveyed publications on operational expert system (ES) applications in business published between 1980 and 1993 to provide a macro-view of ES use in business. I found records of 440 expert systems in use. Ninety-seven percent of the papers were published since 1986. Business expert systems are an innovative technology for helping knowledge workers manage problems in many domains. Many ESs have profound impact, shrinking the time for tasks from days to hours, minutes, or seconds. Non-quantifiable benefits include improved customer satisfaction, improved quality of products and services, and accurate and consistent decision making. Few business areas are untouched by ESs, which have become indispensable tools for effective management.
Introduction: Special Section on the Role of OR/MS in Managing Natural Resources and the Environment
Authors: Lembersky Mark
Published: October 2008

Natural resource utilization has always been an appealing and productive area for the application of operations research and management sciences techniques. More recently, applications that address environmental issues have also been undertaken. Much such work was summarized at the TIMS International Conference at Anchorage, Alaska in June, 1994. This special section contains complete papers describing several recent outstanding examples in these areas.
Model World: On Academics, Applications, and Publications
Authors: Gass Saul I.
Published: October 2008

An essay discussing letters to the editor and articles in OR journals that seem to have moved into a new area of concern (and complaint), tangentially related to the earlier issues of readability and applicability. This is what bothers these concerned citizens of OR: (1) academics are publishing papers of no value (except in gaining tenure) and (2) academics are not producing students who can solve real-world problems. The author wants to put things in perspective and see if it can be understood what is wrong and what appears to be wrong and correct the problems within the real world of pedagogy and OR practice.
People Skills: Launching a Cooperative Learning Team
Authors: Levasseur Robert E.
Published: October 2008

In a recent guest column, the benefits of using cooperative learning methods to help students acquire people (process) skills while they learn were discussed. The fundamental building block of the active learning method is the cooperative learning team. Each learning team consists of a small number of students who share responsibility for actively leading and supporting each other in the learning process. Knowing how important the process of forming groups is to team building, I decided to write this article to provide teachers and students with some process guidelines from the discipline of group management and team development to help them launch their cooperative learning teams as quickly, easily, and effectively as possible.
Teachers' Forum: Teaching MBA Quantitative Business Analysis with Cases
Authors: Bodily Samuel E.
Published: October 2008

Interest is rising in how operations research/management science (OR/MS) fits into the Masters of Business Administration (MBA) curriculum and how we can make OR/MS courses more successful. Sessions on these topics proliferate at our professional meetings. At University of Virginia's Darden School, the quantitative analysis faculty has endeavored to move away from the traditional technique-driven, compartmentalized quantitative methods course to a first-year MBA course that is decision oriented, integrated within a business curriculum, managerially exciting, and dedicated to student-centered learning and cases. I want to describe our experience with this course, to indicate some of the critical success factors associated with it, and to provide ideas that may prove useful elsewhere.
Decentralizing Ethanol Distribution in Southeastern Brazil
Authors: Yoshizaki Hugo T. Y. , Muscat Antonio R. N. , Biazzi Jorge L.
Published: October 2008

A renewable energy source, sugar cane ethanol, fuels many Brazilian automobiles. We demonstrated the economic advantage of decentralized distribution directly from the producing mills over the federally mandated practice of centralized, multi-product (ethanol plus fossil fuels) distribution in the producing region of Southeastern Brazil. In the investment analysis, we evaluated logistics costs using a transshipment (LP) model. The quantitative results of our study influenced the client organization, Grupo COSAN/Bom Jesus, to begin lobbying efforts to change federal regulations. The government approved deregulation in July 1993. This changed a Brazilian paradigm; instead of fuel distribution being concentrated in a few big companies, there would be increased competition in the ethanol arena. Currently, Grupo COSAN/Bom Jesus has begun a joint venture with a fossil fuel distributor to invest in this new distribution scheme.
Managing Environmental Collaboratives: A Manager's Perspective
Authors: Powell Kenneth B.
Published: October 2008

Until recently, electric utilities have been quiet, stable industries. The last two decades have brought changes that have turned the utility business into a three-ring circus. One of the prominent factors affecting utilities is the greatly increased emphasis on environmental problems. Working with utilities, regulators, industrial concerns, and environmentalists on environmental collaboratives to establish utility policy is like running the wild animal act at the circus. Fortunately, management science provides us with such tools as optimizing models to help us to quantify the costs of various proposals. Unfortunately, the models often provide so much data that it is difficult to filter out useful decision-making information. Other techniques, such as multi-attribute trade-off and measuring percent changes, have added only a little light. We now need to apply additional MS tools, such as decision trees and expected values, to the problem, and we are starting to do so.
The Fifth Column: The Lieutenant Colonel and Logistics and the Captain and the Claim
Authors: Woolsey Robert E. D.
Published: October 2008

The author expresses a growing concern that with the concentration on gee-whiz software in modeling one may be implying that all to be done is: (a) define the model, (b) choose the appropriate software package, (c) get some data (from someone), (d) run the model, and (e) present management with the result. It is important to remember that the method used to collect data and the level of trust in data is of even bigger importance.
Statistical Support of Forensic Auditing
Authors: Olinsky Alan D. , Mangiameli Paul M. , Chen Shaw K.
Published: October 2008

During a three year period, $4.38 million of gold was stolen from the vaults of Sammartino's House of Diamonds. A civil suit between the gold's owner and its insurance company centered on when the gold was stolen. The time of the loss was critical to the insurer's contention that it was not liable because the gold was missing prior to the inception date of the policy. The insurer's attorneys retained an accounting firm to conduct a forensic audit (a financial audit to investigate fraud). The key to this investigation was reconstructing a daily gold inventory balance by sampling sales invoices. Since the audit's sampling methodology was open to question, we were retained to use various statistical techniques to verify the process. To test the results of the forensic audit, we constructed two formal hypotheses: The first to test for nonrandomness in the selected sample observations; the second to test if the amount of sales dollars selected in the sample was proportional to the amount of sales dollars in the monthly population. To accomplish this, we utilized a one-sample runs test, time-series charts, regression analysis, and interval estimations. We found that the sampled invoice transactions exhibited no evidence of nonrandomness or bias and appeared to be representative of the population. Hence, these results supported the inventory reconstruction obtained by the accounting firm.
Revenue Management Saves National Car Rental
Authors: Geraghty M. K. , Johnson Ernest
Published: October 2008

In 1993, National Car Rental faced liquidation. General Motors Corporation (National's parent) took a $744 million charge against earnings related to its ownership of National Car Rental Systems. National faced liquidation, with the loss of 7,500 jobs, unless it could show a profit in the short term. National initiated a comprehensive revenue management program whose core is a suite of analytic models developed to manage capacity, pricing, and reservation. As it improved management of these functions, National dramatically increased its revenue. The initial implementation in July 1993 produced immediate results and returned National Car Rental to profitability. In July 1994, National implemented a state-of-the-art revenue management system, improving revenues by $56 million in the first year. In April 1995, General Motors sold National Car Rental Systems for an estimated $1.2 billion.
Finding the Yellow Brick Road: Part 3, The Wizard of Oz
Authors: Powell Warren B. , Mayoras Donald E.
Published: October 2008

Sometimes, there is more truth in fiction than in publicly available accounts. This story by Warren B. Powell, a leading researcher of real-time routing and scheduling models and frequent consultant to the motor carrier industry, and Donald E. Mayoras, a senior transportation executive and president of a trucking company, provides a view into the discussions many carriers undertake prior to adopting an optimization model. The account is too long to appear as a single article and instead is being published in serial form. This is the third installment.
Automating Credit and Collections Decisions at AT&T Capital Corporation
Authors: Curnow George , Kochman Gary , Meester Steven , Sarkar Debashish , Wilton Keith
Published: October 2008

AT&T Capital Corporation, the largest publicly held leasing and financing company in the US, owns and manages over $12 billion in assets. In 1992, we began work to enhance the viability and profitability of its small-ticket business. We designed three sets of decision automation systems and the associated decision strategies for front-end credit decisions, life-cycle credit-line management, and delinquent account collections. The majority (73 percent) of the credit-granting decisions in AT&T Capital's small-ticket business are now made automatically, including $685 million in new transactions annually. Productivity gains have enhanced competitiveness by reducing response times and increased profitability by reducing credit and collections operating costs by over $3.1 million annually. Finally, improvements in decision quality have led to business volume gains of $86 million annually, while reducing bad debt losses by $1.1 million annually.
Guns or Butter: Decision Support for Determining the Size and Shape of the South African National Defense Force
Authors: Gryffenberg Ivan , Lausberg Jean L. , Smit Willem J. , Uys Stephanus , Botha Sally , Hofmeyr F. Rauten , Nicolay Ruppert P. , van der Merwe Willie L. , Wessels Gysbert J.
Published: October 2008

In January of 1994, the chief of the South African National Defense Force (SANDF) asked the question: “In the absence of a conventional military threat, what should the size and shape of the SANDF be?” A joint SANDF and Deloitte and Touche team supported the joint strategic management process (JSMP) with OR/MS based decision support models. The team created the following models: a risk model of the probability and potential impact of various defense contingencies, a growth model of growth potential of force structure elements, a cost model (zero based), a mixed-integer-programming model of all the relationships, and a manual model allowing the user to select different tasks and strategies. The project resulted in a saving on the approved force design (size and shape) of more than 22 percent. The results indicate clear opportunities for major additional savings.
Pontis: A System for Maintenance Optimization and Improvement of US Bridge Networks
Authors: Golabi Kamal , Shepard Richard
Published: October 2008

Pontis provides a systematic methodology for allocating funds, evaluating current and future needs of bridges and options to meet those needs, and recommending the optimal policy for each bridge in the context of overall network benefits, budgets, and restrictions. After a trial implementation in California and extensive testing in several states, the system was adopted by AASHTO (Association of American State Highway Officials). Currently, over 40 states are implementing Pontis. At the heart of Pontis is a set of predictive and optimization models which derive their information from judgmental, engineering, and economic models and various databases. The predictive models start with engineering-based subjective inputs and update themselves in a Bayesian context as data is collected. The optimization models consist of interrelated Markov decision models and mathematical programming tools and models.
The Occasional Observer: Sex, the Battle of the Sexes, and Innumeracy
Authors: Murphy Frederic H.
Published: October 2008

The author disects a National Public Radio report based on a survey of sex life in America claiming that men had far more sex partners than women. Inconsistency and bias in usual interpretation of such surveys is clearly shown. Special attention is paid to the use of wrong mathematical models and assumptions.
Using Citation Analysis to Explore the Intellectual Base, Knowledge Dissemination, and Research Impact of Interfaces (1970–1992)
Authors: Gupta Uma G.
Published: October 2008

Many leading OR professionals think that our primary mission should be to apply the mathematical and scientific principles of OR to real-world problems rather than to pursue theoretical research. To encourage the application of OR models, in 1976 the editors of Interfaces shifted the emphasis of the journal from meta research to applications and survey papers. I analyzed the citations and selective references over the last two decades or so of Interfaces to obtain a snapshot of where the field has been and where it is heading. I analyzed 1,294 articles, 2,190 authors, and more than 2,500 references.
Finding the Yellow Brick Road: Part 5, Through the Crystal Ball
Authors: Powell Warren B. , Mayoras Donald E.
Published: October 2008

Sometimes, there is more truth in fiction than in publicly available accounts. This story by Warren B. Powell, a leading researcher of real-time routing and scheduling models and frequent consultant to the motor carrier industry, and Donald E. Mayoras, a senior transportation executive and president of a trucking company, provides a view into the discussions many carriers undertake prior to adopting an optimization model. The account is too long to appear a single article and instead is being published in serial form. This is the fifth installment.
Evaluating New Weapon Systems Technology: The Javelin versus the Dragon
Authors: Cannella David Anthony , Sohn So Young , Pate Charles
Published: October 2008

To achieve its missions, the US Army needs to take advantage of improvements in weapons technology. To replace the medium antiarmor Dragon weapon system, the army is testing a new system called Javelin. We used simulation to explore Javelin's potential to enhance the effectiveness of the mechanized infantry. We developed scenarios employing the Janus(A) high-resolution combat model. These scenarios represent force-on-force trials of mechanized versus fully modernized armor heavy threats in deliberate defense and movement-to-contact missions. Our results indicate that the Javelin performs better than the Dragon in mechanized force. These findings and related study results led to the US Army's decision to replace the Dragon with the Javelin in its mechanized infantry units.
The Logistics Impact of the Channel Tunnel
Authors: Dornier Philippe-Pierre , Ernst Ricardo
Published: October 2008

The tunnel linking England and France is remarkable in its impact. As the global logistics network grows, the tunnel improves travel for people and goods moving between the UK and the continent. Although many speculated about the financial implications of the tunnel, no one had done a serious study regarding the logistics implications of this new rail infrastructure. This study was motivated by the French train company dedicated to freight (Fret SNCF) in their need to explore commercial opportunities through the tunnel. We started by performing a survey (in cooperation with Coopers & Lybrand) with European exporting and transportation companies of expectations and strategic evaluation for the channel tunnel as a logistics alternative. We then develop some analytical models to offer guidelines for defining the range of values that would make one transportation alternative superior. In the study we worked with data provided by Fret SNCF as well as with consultation with many European companies to validate the models and present specific solutions from different areas in the continent to the UK. In particular, we examined nine feasible scenarios for going to London from seven different areas in the European continent.
The Fifth Column: Optimization of Academic Raises, or Optimizing Academia for Fun and Profit, Part 2
Authors: Woolsey Robert E. D.
Published: October 2008

Second part of the essay on attempts to apply optimization methods in evaluating research and teaching contribution in a university department. It is shown how wrong assumptions in the mathematical model completely bias the stated goals and distort the participants behavior in the case their raises depend on the outcome of the proposed model.
The Teachers' Forum: From Intelligent Consumer to Active Modeler, Two MBA Success Stories
Authors: Powell Stephen G.
Published: October 2008

Discussion about the decline in management science in the business schools. The author proposes a paradigm to train the MBA students to be active modelers by using the personal computer and software, primarily the spreadsheet. Those tools allow significantly faster and easier modeling and also make possible a new style of modeling, referred to as “end-user-modeling.”
South Carolina Counties Use a Mixed-Integer Programming-Based Decision Support Tool for Planning Municipal Solid Waste Management
Authors: Ferrell William G. , Hizlan Haluk
Published: October 2008

Constructing an integrated municipal solid waste management plan and implementing the strategy is becoming increasingly important. We constructed a mixed-integer programming model to support this planning effort in several South Carolina counties; however, we encountered a number of problems in moving the optimal solution into the decision-making process. Most of these problems emanated from the fact that people making policy decisions know that many factors must be considered that are not part of an economic model. We discovered that understanding the decision-making process was key to having the optimal solution used during planning. This understanding led us to construct a spreadsheet-based model to serve as an interface between the optimization model and the decision makers. As such, the planning effort was greatly enhanced by the information contained in the optimization model, but it included all the other factors that are important to communities but are not modeled. We provide the actual results from one county as a case study.
Automated Timetabling Improves Course Scheduling at UCLA
Authors: Stallaert Jan
Published: October 2008

Every school must generate a timetable for its courses. If the number of classes is large—say 100 or more—and constraints and preferences are involved, this problem becomes too time-consuming to do manually. I implemented a course timetabling system for the Anderson School of Management at UCLA. I divided the overall problem into two subproblems: first to schedule the core courses using an integer-programming algorithm, and second to generate a timetable by using a heuristic algorithm to solve a variant of a quadratic assignment problem. The administrators have been using this decision support system over the past three years to schedule the courses every quarter and state that it generates timetables as good as the manual ones but a lot faster.
Erratum to: “The Variance Paradox and its Implications for Japanese Production Theory”
Authors: Gupta Diwakar , Srinivasan Mandyam M.
Published: October 2008

Erratum to a statement made in the abstract of the article “The variance paradox and its implications for Japanese production theory,” Interfaces, Vol. 26, No. 4, July–August 1996, pp. 69–77.
Model World: The Academic Midlife Crisis
Authors: Gass Saul I. , Nahmias Steven , Harris Carl M.
Published: October 2008

An informal overview of the panel discussion at the Spring 1996 INFORMS meeting whose intent was expressed as: “While career-related problems in midlife are experienced in all fields, the academic life holds few imperatives and few rewards for the senior tenured faculty. Motivating faculty to continue to be productive into their later years is a challenge. Panelists will discuss some of their ideas on this problem. The session is designed to be give-and-take among panelists and members of the audience.”