bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
On the Theory of Inverse Probabilities
Authors: Makeham William Matthew
Published: June 2019

Another investigation into the mortality experience of life assurance companies by the Institute of Actuaries will, in all probability, take place at no very distant period; and I think it is extremely desirable that this subject should previously be ventilated in the pages of the Journal. A very elementary acquaintance of that branch of the doctrine of probabilities which treats of the law of “Errors of Observation” will suffice to enable anyone to follow my reasoning in the following pages, and to form his own opinion as to whether the conclusions which I have arrived at are right or wrong.
Some Notes on Laws affecting Policies of Life Assurance
Authors: Lemon William Kent
Published: June 2019

In response to the suggestion of our President, in his inaugural address for the present session, I commenced to put together some notes which seemed suitable for a paper to be read before one of the provincial institutes. In this I proposed to deal with some practical legal questions which are encountered by officials engaged in various positions outside the head offices of life insurance companies.
On a Method frequently adopted of treating Under-average Lives for Assurance Purposes, by making Temporary Deductions from the Sums Assured
Authors: Sunderland A. W.
Published: June 2019

My first impressions on considering the magnitude and pretensions of the investigation which I now present to the Institute were that it would perhaps be more suitable for a communication to the Journal, or that at any rate it would scarcely provide sufficient matter to occupy the attention of the meeting for a whole evening. This impression was strengthened when I considered the importance and wide scope of the researches which have been presented as food for our reflection at many of the meetings held in recent years. But, on further consideration, it appeared the subject I had chosen was one likely to give rise to useful discussion. Also I feel that, from a good number of the members of the Institute, at any rate, on whose time and attention the cares of business are continually making greater and greater demands, I may hope for forgiveness if I place before them a somewhat lighter paper than usual.
An enquiry into the methods of representing and giving effect to the Experience of a Friendly Society; with some account of the Hearts of Oak Benefit Society and its Experience for the years 1884–91
Authors: Hardy Ralph Price
Published: June 2019

Considering the important part played in the social system by the various Friendly Societies of the Empire, both as fosterers of the inestimable principle of self-reliance and as trainers in the art of practical government, it appears to me strange that hardly anything respecting their aims, or their working or experience, has been brought before this Institute.
On the Application of Makeham's Modification of Gompertz's Expression for the Law of Mortality to the Practical Calculation of the Values of Survivorship Benefits
Authors: Colenso Francis E.
Published: June 2019

The value, to the practical actuary, of Makeham's formula for the law of mortality, as a means of facilitating the calculation of joint-life benefits, is well established. Considerable use, for instance, is undoubtedly made of the tables appended to the second volume of the Institute Text-Book, in questions of everyday occurrence involving the computation by the HM Tables of annuities on three or four lives. In like manner, where the employment of Carlisle annuities is desirable, the tables prepared in 1880 (see J.I.A., xxii, 191), by Messrs. George King and G. F. Hardy, afford a ready means of obtaining results which are at once consistent, and substantially in agreement with values derived directly from the parent table. With regard, however, to the calculation of contingent survivorship benefits, it seems worthy of consideration whether something may not be done to render expressions based upon Makeham's formula better adapted than they are, in the shape in which they are usually presented, to meet the exigencies of practical requirements.
The Effect of a Decreasing Rate of Interest on Annuities and Policy Reserves
Authors:   G. H. R
Published: June 2019

In an Appendix to the Report of Messrs. A. Hendriks, A. H. Bailey, and R. P. Hardy, to the Australian Mutual Provident Society, reprinted in our columns in July 1894 (J.I.A., xxi, 325), Mr. R. P. Hardy elaborated an ingenious method of valuation giving effect to a decreasing rate of interest, assumed to be subject to a constant annual reduction throughout a given period. Tables were added showing the values of annuities and assurances under the conditions mentioned, the rate of interest commencing at £3. 15s., and decreasing one shilling per-cent per annum until the end of the fifteenth year, after which it was assumed to remain constant at £3 per-cent per annum. A novel problem was investigated with great success in this Appendix; and, both on account of the originality with which the subject was treated, and the utility of the results, the contribution will always possess great interest for students of life assurance science.
Syphilis as Affecting Life Insurance Risks
Authors: Marsh E. J.
Published: June 2019

It has been hitherto the rule of the Mutual Life, under the advice of its medical examiners, to decline all applicants who give a history of having had syphilis. I do not know when the rule was first established, but it was probably in the early years of the company. This rule has been enforced almost uniformly, and, if there were any exceptions, they were certainly very rare. During this long period, however, our knowledge of the natural history of this disease has been greatly increased by careful and patient observations, and there has been corresponding improvement in the methods of treatment. Consequently, the question has been raised and discussed by medical men, as to whether, with this better knowledge and treatment, the old rule might not be too rigid, and whether it should not be either annulled or at least amended, and whether such exclusion of syphilitics from the benefits of insurance was not injurious to the company and unjust to the applicants. At the present time there is a strong preponderance of medical opinion that a syphilitic history is not to be considered an absolute bar to life insurance. As a matter of practice in the different life insurance companies the rule depends upon the personal experience, judgment, or prejudice of the medical advisers. I have now endeavoured to consider the question fairly and thoroughly, and to review the latest and best opinions of our medical authorities on the whole history of syphilis and its influence on the duration of the lives of those affected by it.
Some Observations on Industrial Assurance
Authors: Rea C. H. E.
Published: June 2019

The almost phenomenal advances that have recently been made in the business of industrial assurance have brought this branch of our provident system into a position of national importance. Ten years ago, the business of our industrial companies was, roughly speaking, as under:—

whereas to-day it is, approximately,

Beyond the business of these companies, a very large number of industrial assurance contracts exist in the societies, clubs, and various orders registered under the Friendly Societies Act of 1875.
The Problem of Copyhold Fine Enfranchisement
Authors: Mathews George S.
Published: June 2019

The problem of estimating the lord's interest in a copyhold property which is subject to a fine on death and alienation, in other words, the enfranchisement value of such a property, has been a constant source of perplexity to Surveyors.

Its chief difficulty arises from the fact that the contingency of alienation has to be taken into account, in addition to the contingency of death, which is alone involved in ordinary actuarial problems.
On Bonuses on Endowment-Assurance Policies
Authors: Sunderland Arthur W.
Published: June 2019

In a paper which I read before the Institute of Actuaries in April 1887 (J.I.A., xxvi, 357) I gave some tables which seemed to me likely to be of use, in the case of certain life offices, for the purpose of forming estimates of the amounts of bonuses arising on ordinary whole-term with-profit policies. The offices contemplated were mutual societies, making their periodical valuations every five years by the HM Table, at 3 per-cent interest. Life offices differ so much in regard to rates of premium charged and rate and incidence of expenses, and also in regard to the rate of interest earned by their funds, that it appeared to me it would be desirable to construct tables in such a form that the bonuses, which would fit the circumstances of any particular office, might, without difficulty, be calculated from them, rather than to calculate bonuses for a hypothetical office. An illustration was given, it is true, but this was subsidiary to the main purpose of the paper, and was furnished with the object of showing how the tables might be applied.
On the Further Development of Gompertz's Law
Authors: Makeham William Matthew
Published: June 2019

Referring again to Art. 4 of Gompertz's treatise, let us denote by a0dx the actual probability of dying in the infinitely small time dx, at the initial age of the mortality table, and by axdx the abstract chance of death (in the time dx) at the end of x years; that is to say, the chance considered “independently of” (as Gompertz expresses it) or as “abstracted from” the deterioration resulting from increased age, then, according to Gompertz's law, the actual probability of dying, in the time dx, at the latter age will be axqxdx, in which expression q only is an arbitrary constant denoting the rate of deterioration. If, in axqxdx, we put x=0, it becomes a0dx, which coincides with the expression first assumed. Hence, Gompertz's law, which supposes that “the “vital force or recuperative power loses equal proportions in equal “times”, is expressed, in its general form, by the equation μxdx=axqxdx, or, which is the same thing, by μx=axqx.
On the Premiums for Assurances against Issue to Widowers, Bachelors, and Married Men, or on the Calculation of the Values of Benefits depending on Marriage and on Birth of Issue
Authors: Sprague T. B.
Published: June 2019

I believe that the first publisht paper on the subject of premiums for insurance against issue was that of Mr. Archibald Day, which was read before the Institute on 31 January 1859 (J.I.A., viii, 127). In this paper he gave from the Census Statistics the numbers of bachelors and widowers living in 1851, and the numbers of marriages of bachelors and widowers in the same year; and from these he deduced the probabilities of a bachelor and of a widower of any age marrying in a year, Then by means of the last-mentioned probabilities, combined with the probabilities of life given by the English Table No. 1, he calculated the value, at 3 per-cent interest, of £1 payable at the end of the year in which a husband shall contract a second marriage. The formula he used for this purpose may be written npH(1−npw)ϕH+n−1 × vn, where H and W represent the respective ages of husband and wife, and ϕ is the probability of a widower marrying in a year. It may be remarked in passing, that this formula is only approximately correct, inasmuch as there is a contingency that is not provided for in it, namely, that the husband may be alive and his wife dead, but that he may already have married a second time.
History of Life Assurance in the United Kingdom (Continued)
Authors: Walford Cornelius
Published: June 2019

A case arose about this time—the middle of the eighteenth century—which, as it illustrated some points in practice and an important principle in the law of Insurance, I will briefly review. It is the case of Cleeve v. Gascoigne. In June 1749, the defendant (Gascoigne) had applied to an Office-keeper, or Broker, to insure £1,600 for one year at 5 per-cent on the life of one Poulton, from whom the defendant had agreed to purchase an estate, whereof Poulton had the reversion in fee, and also an intervening interest for his own life.
On the Value of the Option of Withdrawal in Deferred Annuity Contracts
Authors: Paterson W. B.
Published: June 2019

The subject of this paper was suggested by a perusal of the correspondence in the 12th and 13th volumes of the Journal, in which several members of the Institute engaged, and which left the matter in an unsatisfactory position.

Since that time no further notice of the subject appears to have been taken; but the publication of the last Government Annuity Tables renders further investigation of the subject possible.
Activation is not a panacea: active labour market policy, long-term unemployment and institutional complementarity
Authors: BENDA LUC , KOSTER FERRY , VAN DER VEEN ROMKE
Published: June 2019

Evaluation studies of active labour market policy show different activation measures generate contradictory results. In the present study, we argue that these contradictory results are due to the fact that the outcomes of activation measures depend on other institutions. The outcome measure in this study is the long-term unemployment rate. Two labour market institutions are of special interest in this context: namely, employment protection and unemployment benefits. Both institutions, depending on their design, may either increase or decrease the effectiveness of active labour market policies in lowering long-term unemployment. Based on an analysis of macro-level data on 20 countries over a period of 16 years, our results show that employment protection strictness and unemployment benefit generosity interact with the way in which active labour market policies relate to long-term unemployment. Our results also indicate that, depending on the measure used, active labour market policies fit either in a flexible or in a coordinated labour market. This suggests that active labour market policies can adhere to both institutional logics, which are encapsulated in different types of measures.
Large mammals generate both top-down effects and extended trophic cascades on floral-visitor assemblages
Authors: Louthan Allison , Valencia Emily , Martins Dino J. , Guy Travis , Goheen Jacob , Palmer Todd , Doak Daniel
Published: June 2019

Cascading effects of high trophic levels onto lower trophic levels have been documented in many ecosystems. Some studies also show evidence of extended trophic cascades, in which guilds dependent on lower trophic levels, but uninvolved in the trophic cascade themselves, are affected by the trophic cascade due to their dependence on lower trophic levels. Top-down effects of large mammals on plants could lead to a variety of extended trophic cascades on the many guilds dependent on plants, such as pollinators. In this study, floral-visitor and floral abundances and assemblages were quantified within a series of 1-ha manipulations of large-mammalian herbivore density in an African savanna. Top-down effects of large mammals on the composition of flowers available for floral visitors are first shown, using regressions of herbivore activity on metrics of floral and floral-visitor assemblages. An extended trophic cascade is also shown: the floral assemblage further altered the assemblage of floral visitors, according to a variety of approaches, including a structural equation modelling approach (model with an extended trophic cascade was supported over a model without, AICc weight = 0.984). Our study provides support for extended trophic cascades affecting floral visitors, suggesting that trophic cascades can have impacts throughout entire communities.
Potential role of intraspecific and interspecific cloning in the conservation of wild mammals
Authors: Borges Alana Azevedo , Pereira Alexsandra Fernandes
Published: June 2019

Intraspecific and interspecific cloning via somatic cell nuclear transfer (iSCNT) is a biotechnique with great possibilities for wild mammals because it allows the maintenance of biodiversity by recovering species, nuclear reprogramming for the production of pluripotency-induced cells, and studies related to embryonic development. Nevertheless, many areas in cloning, especially those associated with wild mammals, are still in question because of the difficulty in obtaining cytoplasmic donor cells (or cytoplasts). Conversely, donor cell nuclei (or karyoplasts) are widely obtained from the skin of living or post-mortem individuals and often maintained in somatic cell banks. Moreover, the creation of karyoplast–cytoplast complexes by fusion followed by activation and embryo development is one of the most difficult steps that requires further clarification to avoid genetic failures. Although difficult, cloning different species, such as wild carnivores and ungulates, can be successful via iSCNT with embryo development and the birth of offspring. Thus, novel research in the area that contributes to the conservation of biodiversity and knowledge of the physiology of species continues. The present review presents the failures and successes that occurred with the application of the technique in wild mammals, with the goal of helping future work on cloning via iSCNT.
Natural disasters and regional development – the case of earthquakes
Authors: Fabian Marius , Lessmann Christian , Sofke Tim
Published: June 2019

We analyze the impact of earthquakes on nighttime lights at a sub-national level, i.e., on grids of different size. We argue that existing studies on the impact of natural disasters on economic development have several important limitations, both at the level of the outcome variable as well as at the level of the independent variable, e.g., the timing of an event and the measuring of its intensity. We aim to overcome these limitations by using geophysical event data on earthquakes together with satellite nighttime lights. Using panel fixed effects regressions covering the entire world for the period 1992–2013, we find that earthquakes reduce both light growth rates and light levels significantly. The effects persist for approximately 5 years, but we find no long-run effects. Effects are stronger the smaller the area of a unit of observation. National institutions and economic conditions are relevant moderating factors.
DOES CALVO MEET ROTEMBERG AT THE ZERO LOWER BOUND?
Authors: Miao Jianjun , Ngo Phuong V.
Published: June 2019

This paper compares the conventional Calvo and Rotemberg price adjustments at the zero lower bound (ZLB) on nominal interest rates. Although the two pricing mechanisms are equivalent to a first-order approximation around the zero-inflation steady state, they produce very different results, based on a fully-nonlinear method. Specifically, the nominal interest rate hits the ZLB more frequently in the Calvo model than in the Rotemberg model. At the ZLB, deflation is larger and recessions are more severe in the Calvo model. The main reason for the difference in results is that price adjustment costs show up in the resource constraints in the Rotemberg. When they are rebated to the household, the two models behave similarly.
When health services are powerless to prevent suicide: results from a linkage study of suicide among men with no service contact in the year prior to death
Authors: Mallon Sharon , Galway Karen , Rondon-Sulbaran Janeet , Hughes Lynette , Leavey Gerry
Published: June 2019

Aims

To investigate cases of suicide in which there was no healthcare contact, by looking at history of help-seeking and evidence of previous mental health vulnerability. To identify any life events associated with suicide for which individuals did not seek help.

Background

Previous research has suggested that non-consultation is the main barrier to suicide prevention among men. Estimates suggest approximately 22% of men who die by suicide have not consulted their GP in the year before their death. Little is known about the lifetime pattern of engagement with services among these individuals and whether or not this may influence their help-seeking behaviour before death.

Methods

Coroner records of suicide deaths in Northern Ireland over 2 years were linked to general practice (GP) records. This identified 63 individuals who had not attended health services in the 12 months before death. Coroner’s data were used to categorise life events associated with the male deaths. Lifetime mental health help-seeking at the GP was assessed.

Findings

The vast majority of individuals who did not seek help were males (n=60, 15% of all suicide deaths). Lack of consultation in the year before suicide was consistent with behaviour over the lifespan; over two-thirds had no previous consultations for mental health. In Coroner’s records, suicides with no prior consultation were primarily linked to relationship breakdown and job loss. These findings highlight the limitations of primary care in suicide prevention as most had never attended GP for mental health issues and there was a high rate of supported consultation among those who had previously sought help. Public health campaigns that promote service use among vulnerable groups at times of crisis might usefully be targeted at those likely to be experiencing financial and relationship issues.
Female Asylum Seekers: A Critical Attitude on UK Immigration Removal Centres
Authors: De Angelis Maria
Published: June 2019

The context to this article is sovereign biopower as experienced by female asylum seekers in the confined spaces of UK Immigration Removal Centres (IRCs). With approximately 27,000 migrants entering immigration detention in 2017, the UK’s immigration detention estate is one of the largest in Western Europe. Through an empirical study with former detainees, this article outlines how women experience Agamben’s politically bare life through IRC practices that confine, dehumanise, and compound their asylum vulnerabilities. It also explains how micro-transgressions around detention food, social relations, and faith practices reflect a Foucauldian critical attitude and restore a degree of political agency to asylum applicants. Centrally this article argues that everyday acts of resistance – confirming their identities as human / gendered / cultural beings with social belonging – can be read as political agency in women’s questioning of their asylum administration. As such, this article offers a rare insight on biopower and political agency as lived and performed by women inside the in/exclusive spaces of the IRC.
The Paris Agreement on Climate Change—Made in USA?
Authors: Milkoreit Manjana
Published: June 2019

The 2015 Paris Agreement established a new logic for international climate governance: the pledge-and-review system. In 2009, the same idea had been proposed in the Copenhagen Accord, but was then forcefully rejected by the negotiation community. Explaining this turnaround, I analyze the role of the United States in the international climate negotiations, using Putnam’s two-level game framework and Snidal’s k-group theory. U.S. domestic politics imposed significant constraints on the terms of the Paris Agreement, contributing to the emergence of the new treaty architecture. Until 2015, U.S. negotiators were either unable or unwilling to bring the demands of political actors at the domestic and international levels in alignment. President Obama achieved this alignment in 2015 by creating international support for a treaty without legally binding obligations that could circumvent a Congressional ratification barrier. The latter required a surprising move: the proactive engagement of China despite the structural context of hegemonic transition.
Gender Politics in the Lobbying Profession
Authors: LaPira Timothy M. , Marchetti Kathleen , Thomas Herschel F.
Published: June 2019

Although political scientists have increasingly focused on the role of gender in the policy process and the characteristics of individual lobbyists, little is known about the gender politics of the government relations profession. We extend the study of professional women to the unique political context of Washington, DC, lobbying, an important form of political participation that is understudied in terms of gender. Using data from more than 25,000 individuals registered to lobby the federal government from 2008 to 2015, we show that women account for 37% of the lobbyist population in Washington, that female lobbyists are more likely to work as in-house employees than for contract lobbying firms, and that the largest Washington lobbying firms are strongly biased towards employing men. We add to these findings qualitative data from in-depth interviews with 23 lobbyists to reveal how the professional experiences of women often depend on the idiosyncrasies of lobbying employment and the political nature of their work. We conclude that the underrepresentation of women in the professional lobbying community is an underappreciated problem with broader implications for gender equality in elite political participation.
A balancing act: The revised rules of access to the ICRC Archives reflect multiple stakes and challenges
Authors: Hashemi Valérie McKnight
Published: June 2019

The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) revised the access rules to its archives in 2017 for reasons that are complex, fascinating and deeply contemporary to our times. As these rules define when and to what extent the ICRC Archives are made available to the public, their contents are important for the institution as well as for wider audiences. The ICRC must ensure that it can implement its humanitarian mandate to protect and assist victims of armed conflicts and other situations of violence and preserve confidentiality, while sharing its past with the world at large. This article offers a historical overview of the ICRC Archives and the development of their access regulations until their latest revision in 2017. It shows that both today and in the past, the rules of access to the archives have resulted from choices made by the ICRC on how to balance its mandate and long-standing interests with contemporary opportunities and risks related to independent scrutiny.
On the Arithmometer of M. Thomas (de Colmar), and its application to the Construction of Life Contingency Tables. (Continued from page 32.)
Authors: Gray Peter
Published: June 2019

Problem VIII—To construct a table for the formation of Survivorship Assurances.

A survivorship assurance on (x) against (y) is an assurance payable at the end of the year in which the combination (x. y) is dissolved, provided the dissolution is caused by the death of (x).
An Estimate of the Degrees of the Mortality of Mankind, drawn from curious Tables of the Births and Funerals at the City of Breslaw; with an Attempt to ascertain the Price of Annuities upon Lives
Authors: Halley E.
Published: June 2019

The Contemplation of the Mortality of Mankind, has besides the Moral, its Physical and Political Uses, both which have been some years since most judiciously considered by the curious Sir William Petty, in his Natural and Political Observations on the Bills of Mortality of London, owned by Captain John Graunt. And since in a like Treatise on the Bills of Mortality of Dublin. But the Deduction from those Bills of Mortality seemed even to their Authors to be defective: First, In that the Number of the People was wanting. Secondly, That the Ages of the People dying was not to be had. And Lastly, That both London and Dublin by reason of the great and casual Accession of Strangers who die therein, (as appeared in both, by the great Excess of the Funerals above the Births) rendred them incapable of being Standards for this purpose; which requires, if it were possible, that the People we treat of should not at all be changed, but die where they were born, without any Adventitious Increase from Abroad, or Decay by Migration elsewhere.
On the Adjustment of Mortality Tables; a sequel to former Papers on the same subject
Authors: Woolhouse W.S.B.
Published: June 2019

A method of adjusting mortality tables was originally devised by me expressly for the purpose of accomplishing the graduation of the Institute Tables of Mortality, which operation had been entrusted to me by the Experience Committee. The resulting adjustments proved to be very satisfactory, and a full explanation of the process adopted is given in the Institute of Actuaries' Life Tables and in the Journal of the Institute, vol. xv, p. 389.
On the Construction and Use of a Series of Select Mortality Tables, to be employed in combination with the Institute HM(5 Table
Authors: Sprague T.B.
Published: June 2019

The opinions exprest at several recent meetings ov the Institute ov Actuaries apear to indicate that ther is a general agreement among practical actuaries, that the Institute Tabl HM(5) represents very faithfully the mortality among insured lives after the first benefit ov selection has worn of,—say, after the laps ov five years from the date ov insurance;—and that therefore life office valuations shoud, in the case ov policies ov five or more years' standing, be to a great extent based upon that tabl. When we consider to what extent it shoud be uzed, we see at once that we shoud calculate by means ov it the values ov the sums payabl by the offis and ov the sums receivabl, that is, ov the gross premiums; we shoud also, ov cours, uze it in converting the divisibl surplus into reversionary bonuses. But it is not a suitabl tabl for the calculation ov the net premiums; and net-premium valuations therefore cannot with propriety be made by means ov it alone. The mortality during the first five years being considerably less than that shoen by the tabl in question, the true initial anuities (or anuities at the date ov asurance) wil be greater than those givn by it for the same age, and the net premiums consequently less. It folios then that, if we wer to value the HM(5) net premiums, we shoud hav too large a credit, and the liability bro't out woud be too smal.
On Tables for the Enfranchisement of Copyholds of Inheritance
Authors: Smyth Edward
Published: June 2019

Occasional allusions to copyhold tenure are met with in works upon actuarial science, and in exercises for students; and the admirably lucid paper by Mr. Peter Gray upon the Theory of Successive Lives, which appeared in the second volume of the Journal, is likely to be remembered as having a bearing upon the subject. A brief account of the intricacies which beset this tenure, and of the attempts which have been made to cope with the arithmetical difficulties to which these intricacies give rise upon proceeding to convert the tenure into freehold, may not be without interest for some of the readers of the Journal.
Some Remarks on the Application of the Principle of Non-Forfeiture to Ordinary Policies
Authors: Sprague Thomas Bond
Published: June 2019

As the principle of non-forfeiture has now been adopted by several British Life Offices, and will probably, in the natural course of competition, soon be adopted by many others, it has occurred to me that it may be useful to bring under the notice of the Institute some of the practical points that will have to be considered in the application of the principle.

If the idea of non-forfeiture is accepted to its fullest extent, it follows that no profit, properly so called, should be made by a life office through the forfeiture of policies, in consequence of the inability or neglect of the assured to pay the premiums as they fall due. The surrender-value of a policy is calculated according to certain rules, which should provide for the office receiving an adequate compensation for the loss of the policyholder's contributions to future expenses, as well as for the disturbance in the rate of mortality caused by the withdrawal of a presumably healthy life; and it is in no way necessary for the prosperity of the office, that it should also make a profit, by the forfeiture of the surrender-values that would be paid to the proper parties on application. In fact, if policies are to be strictly non-forfeitable, the calculated surrender-values should in no case be forfeited, but should be applied, in one way or other, for the benefit of the assured or his representatives.
The Position of Life and other Insurance Associations in relation to their Local Medical Examiners: Is it satisfactory?
Authors: Walford Cornelius
Published: June 2019

In a former paper, I had occasion to make some reference to the question of Local Medical Examiners, in tracing the changes in the practice of life insurance during the present century; but I then purposely avoided entering upon a detailed consideration of the points involved, believing these to be worthy of special attention whenever a suitable occasion should arise.

The important part which local medical examiners are called upon to take in the every-day practice of life, and some other important branches of, insurance business, is too well understood in this Institute to require any specific mention. It is enough for my momentary purposes, to say that a most sacred trust is reposed in them; and it will fall within the limit of these purposes to consider in some detail, on this occasion, the manner in which this trust is on the whole performed.

The first difficulty which arises in the treatment of a question of this character, is the fear of doing injustice, by implication or otherwise, to a body of gentlemen, a considerable proportion of whom, I trust, do conscientiously perform their important functions. But on this point it has to be understood, that on those who do discharge their duties honorably and efficiently there can be no adverse criticism. Our remarks, then, in the nature of the case, can only apply to those who are regarded as not acting up to this high but essential standard; and as to these latter, I venture to think that—in very many cases certainly—the true position of matters has but to be placed in a clear light, in order to lead to very speedy and decided improvement.
An Improved Method of Approximating to the Value of Annuities involving Three Lives
Authors: Hardy George F.
Published: June 2019

The ordinary method of approximating to three-life annuities is as follows:—Let the lives be aged respectively x, y, z, (x being the youngest). Find an age w such that at the given rate of interest aw=ayz, then axyz=axw nearly. Baily diminishes the value thus found by .05, but I cannot say if this correction is usually made. It will generally be found to be too small if the lives are very young, but much too large at the older ages.

It has been shown that the above method (neglecting now the correction referred to) is strictly accurate in any mortality table where the mortality conforms to Mr. Gompertz's hypothesis, and where consequently the force of mortality can be represented throughout by the expression

(B and q being constants). The reason for this is, that the force of mortality for two joint lives, or, x, x + t, may be represented by a similar expression

(where qt′ = qt + 1).

It follows from this that if we have

we have also

and, the force of mortality in the joint status being equal to that for the single life, throughout the table, the two annuities are identical, not only as to their total value, but also as to the value of each successive payment.
On the Probability that a Marriage entered into at any age, will be Fruitful; and that, if a Marriage has been Childless for several years, it will afterwards become Fruitful
Authors: Sprague Thomas Bond
Published: June 2019

In December 1879 I read before the Institute a paper (J.I.A. xxii, 117) on the probability that there will hereafter be issue of a marriage hitherto childless. The statistics on which I based my conclusions, were those given by Dr. Matthews Duncan in his work, Fecundity, Fertility, and Sterility; and by Mr. Charles Ansell, Jr., in his Statistics of Families of the Upper and Professional Classes. But I was not altogether satisfied with the results I obtained; for, as I pointed out, the two sets of statistics differ from each other in some material respects, and I was unable to give any satisfactory explanation of the difference, or to say which set was the more trustworthy. For the purpose I had in view both sets had one great defect, namely, that they gave no information as to the number of childless marriages which corresponded to those that became fruitful at different intervals as stated in the tables. I have now, by means of a careful examination of the records of the British Peerage families, obtained a fresh set of statistics; and I purpose on the present occasion applying them to the solution of the same problem as I discussed in 1879.
The Rates of Mortality among the Natives of India as deduced from the recent Census Returns
Authors: Hardy George Francis
Published: June 2019

Having had occasion, in connection with the recent Indian Census, to investigate the question of native mortality as prevailing in the various Indian Provinces, a short statement of the methods employed and the results obtained may perhaps be of interest to the members of the Institute of Actuaries. The problem presented and methods employed belong distinctly to the work of the Actuary, although the results may, perhaps, have more interest for the Statistician.
On the Income Tax, especially in reference to its Incidence on Assurance Companies
Authors: Bailey Arthur Hutcheson
Published: June 2019

In an article on Life Assurance that appeared in the Economist some time ago, the following passage occurs:—“We should be “all the more sanguine of future success if the purely actuarial “element were given somewhat less prominence and power in the “direction of the offices. The fact that they (i.e., the actuaries) “are immersed in mathematical abstractions is calculated to “impair their efficiency as men of business. They are not “brought sufficiently in contact with the public to know and “appreciate their wants, or to discover the best means of satisfying them. They are men of the study rather than of the “market place.”
Advective Transport in Discrete Fracture Networks With Connected and Disconnected Textures Representing Internal Aperture Variability
Authors: Frampton A. , Hyman J. D. , Zou L.
Published: June 2019

Flow and transport in three‐dimensional discrete fracture networks with internal variability in aperture and permeability are investigated using a numerical model. The analysis is conducted for three different texture types representing internal variability considering various correlation lengths and for an increase in domain size corresponding to an increase in network complexity. Internal variability in discrete fracture networks generally increases median travel times and delays arrival of bulk mass transport when compared against reference cases without texture, corresponding to smooth fractures. In particular, internal variability textures with weak connectivity increase travel times nonlinearly with domain size increase, further delaying bulk mass arrival. Textures with strong connectivity can however decrease median travel times, accelerating bulk mass arrival, but only for limited ranges of correlation length and domain size. As domain size increases, travel times of textures with strong connectivity converge toward travel times obtained for classical multivariant Gaussian textures. Thus, accounting for internal fracture variability is potentially significant for improving conservative estimates of bulk mass arrival, flow channeling, and advective and reactive transport in large‐scale discrete fracture networks. Further, early mass arrival can arrive significantly earlier for textures with strong connectivity and classical Gaussian textures corresponding to intermediate connectivity but are only slightly affected by textures with weak connectivity. Thus, accounting for internal variability in fractures is also important for accurate estimates of early solute mass arrival. The overall impact on predictive transport modeling will depend on the extent of, or lack of, internal fracture connectivity structure in real‐world fractured rocks.
Predicting CO2 Plume Migration in Heterogeneous Formations Using Conditional Deep Convolutional Generative Adversarial Network
Authors: Zhong Zhi , Sun Alexander Y. , Jeong Hoonyoung
Published: June 2019

Numerical simulation of flow and transport in heterogeneous formations has long been studied, especially for uncertainty quantification and risk assessment. The high computational cost associated with running large‐scale numerical simulations in a Monte Carlo sense has motivated the development of surrogate models, which aim to capture the important input‐output relations of physics‐based models but require only a fraction of the cost of full model runs. In this work, we formulate a conditional deep convolutional generative adversarial network (cDC‐GAN) surrogate model to learn the dynamic functional mappings in multiphase models. The cDC‐GAN belongs to a class of semisupervised learning methods that can be used to learn the data generation processes. Like the original GAN, a main strength of the cDC‐GAN is that it includes a self‐training scheme for improving the quality of generative modeling in a game theoretic framework, without requiring extensive statistical knowledge and assumptions on input data distributions. In particular, our cDC‐GAN model is designed to learn cross‐domain mappings between high‐dimensional input (e.g., permeability) and output (e.g., phase saturations) pairs, with the ability to incorporate conditioning information (e.g., prediction time). As a use case, we demonstrate the performance of cDC‐GAN for predicting the migration of carbon dioxide (CO2) plume in heterogeneous carbon storage reservoirs, which has both numerical and practical significance because of the safe storage requirements now mandated in many countries. Results show that cDC‐GAN achieves high accuracy in predicting the spatial and temporal evolution patterns of the injected CO2 plume, as compared to the original results obtained using a compositional reservoir simulator. The performance of cDC‐GAN models, trained using the same number of training samples, stays relatively robust when the level of spatial heterogeneity is increased. Our cDC‐GAN is pattern based and is not limited by the underlying physics. Thus, it provides a general framework for developing surrogate models, and for conducting uncertainty analyses for a wide range of physics‐based models used in both groundwater and subsurface energy exploration applications.
Role of Continental Arcs in Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions
Authors: Klemetti Erik
Published: June 2019

Continental arcs are a major player in global carbon dioxide emissions, but quantifying that relationship is hard. A new study accepts the challenge on a global scale over 750 million years.
Asynchronous Variation in the Quaternary East Asian Winter Monsoon Associated With the Tropical Pacific ENSO‐Like System
Authors: Zhao Debo , Wan Shiming , Song Zhaoyang , Gong Xun , Zhai Lina , Shi Xuefa , Li Anchun
Published: June 2019

Quaternary East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) evolution has long been attributed to high‐latitude Northern Hemisphere climate change. However, it cannot explain the distinct relationships of the EAWM in the northern and southern East Asian marginal sea in paleoclimatic records. Here we present an EAWM record of the northern East China Sea over the past 300 ka and a transient climate simulation with the Kiel Climate Model through the Holocene. Both proxy record and simulation suggest anticorrelated long‐term EAWM evolution between the northern East China Sea and the South China Sea. We suggest that this spatial discrepancy of EAWM can be interpreted as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)‐like controlling, which generates cyclonic/anticyclonic wind anomalies in the northern/southern East Asian marginal sea. This research explains much of the controversy in nonorbital scale variability of Quaternary EAWM records in the East Asian marginal sea and supports a potent role of tropical forcing in East Asian winter climate change.
Fracture Network Imaging on Rock Slope Instabilities Using Resonance Mode Analysis
Authors: Häusler M. , Michel C. , Burjánek J. , Fäh D.
Published: June 2019

We performed modal analysis using frequency domain decomposition of ambient seismic vibration data collected on large rock slope instabilities. This technique enables a robust detection of resonance frequencies and provides the corresponding mode shape vectors. We applied the technique to synthetic and field data sets acquired by seismometer arrays on two rock instabilities in Switzerland. We found that, at the fundamental mode, the entire instability vibrates in‐phase with the dominant mode shape vector oriented perpendicular to dominant fracture systems. At higher frequencies, different compartments of the instability resonate antiphase. Therefore, delineating the zero crossings between the phases allows dominant fractures to be efficiently mapped. Approximately 1 hr of ambient vibration data suffices to apply the method successfully. The method also potentially detects hidden fractures that cannot be observed by geological field mapping. In addition, this approach combines classic amplification and polarization analysis into one technique, simplifying data processing efforts.
The Closure of a Shallow Tidal Inlet Promoted by Infragravity Waves
Authors: Bertin Xavier , Mendes Diogo , Martins Kévin , Fortunato André B. , Lavaud Laura
Published: June 2019

Tidal inlets connect the ocean to inner water bodies and are present worldwide. Shallow inlets display fast morphological changes, due to complex interactions between tides, waves, and shallow depths. Their closure is commonly observed under storm waves, but the underlying processes remain only partly understood. Here, we present new field evidence that infragravity waves contribute to the closure of shallow inlets. The analysis of new field data collected at a shallow inlet under storm waves reveals that infragravity waves up to 0.4 m high can propagate inside the lagoon during flood but are blocked by opposing currents during ebb. At the passage of an infragravity wave crest, currents peak over 2.5 m/s and increase instantaneous sand fluxes by 2 orders of magnitude. Large accumulations of sand at the lagoon entrance damp tidal propagation until full inlet closure. This mechanism provides a new explanation for the closure of shallow inlets observed worldwide.
Analytic Expressions for Radial Diffusion
Authors: Lejosne Solène
Published: June 2019

I briefly review, compare, and contrast two theoretical works that have significantly influenced radial diffusion research thus far, namely, the works of Fälthammar (1965, https://doi.org/10.1029/JZ070i011p02503) and the works of Fei et al. (2006, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JA011211). Leveraging Fälthammar's model for magnetic field disturbances, I demonstrate that Fei et al.'s formulas are incorrect: They underestimate radial diffusion by a factor 2 in the presence of magnetic field disturbances. This underestimation comes from the erroneous assumption that radial displacements driven by magnetic field disturbances are statistically independent from radial displacements driven by induced electric fields, while, in fact, both displacements are proportional to each other. Fei et al.'s approach is similar to Fälthammar's approach in that they both analyze radial diffusion by pieces, depending on the nature of the driver. Yet, the Fokker‐Planck equation requires only one radial diffusion coefficient to characterize statistically a trapped radiation belt population cross drift shell motion. Thus, it is worth questioning the practice that consists of defining the coefficient as a sum of independent contributions. In addition, both theoretical models rely on the assumption that the background magnetic field is primarily dipolar, leading to flawed estimates. To overcome these limitations and to improve radial diffusion quantification, I use a general formulation for the variation of the third adiabatic invariant (1) to describe how to compute a radial diffusion coefficient in the most general way and (2) to highlight the assumptions that need to be questioned.