Climate Change and Its Impacts on the Planting Regionalization of Potato in Gansu Province, China
Authors: Lu Yulan , Han Junying , Li Guang , Yan Zhengang , Dong Lixia , Nie Zhigang , Liu Qiang 
Published: January 2025

This study aims to explore the impacts of climate change on potato planting in Gansu Province so as to be able to adjust potato planting pattern scientifically and rationally. (1) Air precipitation and temperature time-series datasets were obtained from 87 meteorological stations in the study area over the past 50 years. The backpropagation neural network was employed to interpolate irregular and missing data in the time-series data. The altitude, the precipitation from June to July, the average temperature in July and the accumulated temperature above 10 °C were selected as the agricultural zoning indicators for the regionalization of potato planting. (2) The linear propensity rate method, cumulative anomaly method, ArcGIS technology and the Mann–Kendall mutation test were employed to examine the spatial–temporal variation in and mutation testing of the three zoning indicators. (3) The experimental results demonstrated that the amount of precipitation from June to July was registered at 139.94 mm, indicating a slight humidifying trend characterized by an annual increase rate of approximately 1.81 mm/10 a. Furthermore, a significant abrupt change was observed in 1998. The average temperature in July was registered at 20.53 °C, which showed an increasing trend at a rate of 0.55 °C/10 a, marked by a sudden shift in 1998. Lastly, the accumulated temperature above 10 °C was registered at 2917.05 °C, manifesting a significant warming trend at a rate of 161.96 °C/10 a, without any abrupt changes. For spatial distribution, the precipitation from June to July showed a decreasing spatial distribution pattern from south to north and from east to west, while its tendency rate showed a gradually decreasing trend from north to south and from east to west. The average temperature in July showed a decreasing spatial pattern from northeast to southwest, while its tendency rate showed a decreasing trend from west to east and from north to south. The accumulated temperature above 10 °C showed a spatial pattern of high accumulated temperatures in the northwestern and southeastern regions and low accumulated temperatures in the remaining regions, while its tendency rate showed a decreasing trend from west to east and from north to south. (4) The impacts of climate change on potato planting in Gansu Province were mainly manifested as a decrease of 0.30 × 106 hm2 in the cultivated land area in the most suitable region for potato planting post-1998, while the suitable area diminished by 0.96 × 106 hm2, the sub-suitable area expanded by 0.47 × 106 hm2, and the plantable area increased by 0.79 × 106 hm2. However, the unsuitable area experienced a reduction of 0.30 × 104 hm2. The findings of this study can provide a scientific foundation for optimizing and adjusting the potato planting structure, considering the backdrop of climate change. Moreover, they contribute to regional decision-making, thereby promoting sustainable agricultural development as well as enhancing both the yield and quality of potato in Gansu Province.