bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Five Decades of Missing Females in China
Authors: Coale Ansley J. , Banister Judith
Published: March 2007

This paper seeks to explain the dearth of females in the population of China in cohorts born from the late 1930s to the present. We demonstrate that in virtually all cohorts. the shortage of females in comparison with males is revealed when the cohort is first enumerated in a census. Subsequently it barely changes, an indication that female losses occur very early in life. Using the high-quality data from the censuses and fertility surveys in China, we show that many of the births of the girls missing in the censuses were not reported in the surveys because they died very young. The incidence of excess early female mortality (probably infanticide) declined precipitously in the Communist period, but not to zero. The recent escalation in the proportion of young females missing in China has been caused largely by rapidly escalating sex-selective abortion.
Nonreporting of Births or Nonreporting of Pregnancies? Some Evidence from four Rural Counties in North China
Authors: Smith Herbert L.
Published: March 2007

Coale and Banister argue that in China, elevated sex ratios in retrospective surveys are in part a function of collecting birth histories in a culture in which the definition of a birth may exclude mortality shortly after birth: an infant death in the West may be a stillbirth in east Asia. I present data from a recent sample survey featuring a retrospective pregnancy history. These data reveal that at least in the first pregnancy, from which the preponderance of sample births arise, there is no evidence of elevated female infant mortality or of high numbers of stillbirths, but that reported sex ratios are unusually high. The proportion of stillbirths grows for later pregnancies, but not enough to account for high sex ratios. Retrospective fertility data regarding recall over a recent interval are vexed less by a misunderstanding of what a live birth is than by a “misunderstanding” of what a (reportable) pregnancy is.
Education and the changing age pattern of American fertility: 1963–1989
Authors: Rindfuss Ronald R. , Morgan S. Philip , Offutt Kate
Published: March 2007

Using pooled data from the 1980, 1985, and 1990 Current Population Surveys, we describe fertility trends by age and education for the period 1963–1989. Interest focuses on whether the effects of education have changed across this period. We show that women with college degrees experienced dramatic shifts toward later ages of childbearing. This shift is consistent with arguments we develop about the increased opportunity for women to pursue careers and about changes in the availability of child care
The impact of state-level restrictions on abortion
Authors: Meier Kenneth J. , Haider-Markel Donald P. , Stanislawski Anthony J. , McFarlane Deborah R.
Published: March 2007

This research examines 23 different laws passed by state governments in an effort to restrict the number of abortions. It assesses both laws passed and laws actually enforced after the Supreme Court permitted states to restrict access to abortion in 1989. None of the policy actions by state governments has had a significant impact on the incidence of abortion from 1982 to 1992. Abortion rates continue to reflect past abortion rates, the number of abortion providers, whether the state funds abortions for Medicaid-eligible women, urbanism, and racial composition of the population. Recent restrictive policies have not affected these trends.
Estimating the completeness of under-5 death registration in Egypt
Authors: Becker Stan , Waheeb Youssef , El-Deeb Bothaina , Khallaf Nagwa , Black Robert
Published: March 2007

To evaluate the completeness of registration of infant and child deaths in Egypt, reinterviews were conducted with families who had reported a death of a child under age 5 in the five years before the survey for two national surveys recently conducted in Egypt: the United Nations PAPCHILD survey of 1990–1991 and the Egyptian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) of 1992. The survey instrument included questions regarding notification of the death at the local health bureau. If the family said the death had been notified, separate employees searched the health bureau records for the registration. Overall 57% of infant deaths were reported as notified and 68% of those death reports were found; the corresponding figuresfor child deaths were 89% and 74%. Using the percentage reported as notified as an estimate for completeness of registration, we adjusted upward the national infant and child mortality rates from registration data, giving values of 73 per 1,000 for infant mortality and 99 for 5q0 for the period 1987–1990. These values are approximately 20% above the corresponding direct estimates from the PAPCHILD and EDHS surveys.
The age of extremes: Concentrated affluence and poverty in the twenty-first century
Authors: Massey Douglas S.
Published: March 2007

Urbanization, rising income inequality, and increasing class segregation have produced a geographic concentration of affluence and poverty throughout the world, creating a radical change in the geographic basis of human society. As the density of poverty rises in the environment of the world’s poor, so will their exposure to crime, disease, violence. and family disruption. Meanwhile the spatial concentration of affluence will enhance the benefits and privileges of the rich. In the twenty-first century the advantages and disadvantages of one’s class position will be compounded and reinforced through ecological mechanisms made possible by the geographic concentration of affluence and poverty, creating a deeply divided and increasingly violent social world.
Making a place in the metropolis: Locational attainment in cities and suburbs
Authors: Logan John R. , Alba Richard D. , McNulty Tom , Fisher Brian
Published: March 2007

What accounts for the differences in the kinds of communities within the metropolis in which members of different racial and ethnic groups live? Do socioeconomic advancement and acculturation provide greater integration with whites or access to more desirable locations for minority-group members? Are these effects the same for Asians or Hispanics as for blacks? Does suburbanization offer a step toward greater equality in the housing market, or do minorities find greater discrimination in the suburban housing market? Data from 1980 for five large metropolitan regions are used to estimate “locational-attainment models,” which evaluate the effects of group members’ individual attributes on two measures of the character of their living environment: the socioeconomic standing (median household income) and racial composition (proportion non-Hispanic white) of the census tract where they reside. Separate models predict these outcomes for whites, blacks, Hispanics, and Asians. Net of the effects of individuals’ background characteristics, whites live in census tracts with the highest average proportion of white residents and the highest median household income. They are followed by Asians and Hispanics, and—at substantially lower levels—blacks. Large overall differences exist between city and suburban locations; yet the gap between whites and others is consistently lower in the suburbs than in the cities of these five metropolitan regions.
Trends in child support outcomes
Authors: Hanson Thomas L. , Garfinkel Irwin , McLanahan Sara S. , Miller Cynthia K.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines trends in child support award rates, award amounts, and receipts, We investigate four hypotheses that have been proposed to explain the downward trend in these outcomes during the 1980s: (1) changes in the demographic composition of the population eligible for child support, (2) increases in mothers/ income, (3) decreases in fathers’ income, and (4) inflation. Our results indicate that trends in nonmarital fertility can explain much of the decline in award rates. The steady downward trend in fathers’ incomes during the 1980s also explains a considerable portion of the decline in award rates, award amounts, and receipts. Our results are also consistent with the notion that persistent money illusion is responsible for the decline in real child support awards.
Economic mobility of young workers in the 1970s and 1980s
Authors: Duncan Greg J. , Boisjoly Johanne , Smeeding Timothy
Published: March 2007

This paper uses longitudinal data to estimate cohort changes in the earnings trajectories of young adult males. Levels of earnings are uniformly lower for male workers turning 21 between 1980 and 1991 than in 1970–1979, although rates of earnings growth are roughly comparable. Among males turning 21 before 1980, six in 10 (60%) of all men and seven in 10 (71%) college-educated men attained earnings levels by age 30 that were at least twice the poverty level. Corresponding fractions for workers turning 21 between 1980 and 1991 were considerably lower (42% and 56%). Recent cohorts from all demographic subgroups appeared to have more difficulty than older cohorts in attaining middle-class earnings.
On the utility of population forecasts
Authors: Tayman Jeff , Swanson David A.
Published: March 2007

Many customers demand population forecasts, particularly for small areas. Although the forecast evaluation literature is extensive, it is dominated by a focus on accuracy. We go beyond accuracy by examining the concept of forecast utility in an evaluation of a sample of 2,709 counties and census tracts. Wefind that forecasters provide “value-added” knowledge for areas experiencing rapid change or areas with relatively large populations. For other areas, reduced value is more common than added value. Our results suggest that new forecasting strategies and methods such as composite modeling may substantially improve forecast utility.
Employment and the Use of Birth Control by Sexually Active Single Hispanic, Black, and White Women
Authors: Kraft Joan Marie , Coverdill James E.
Published: March 2007

Previous studies of the use of birth control by sexually active single women tend to emphasize family background and aspirations, and restrict their attention to teenagers. We elaborate this framework by considering how labor market experiences might shape the birth control practices of women in their late teens and twenties. Data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Force Experiences — Youth Cohort provide evidence that employment histories and wages influence birth control practices, net of the effects of family background, aspirations, and educational attainment. Several pronounced racial and ethnic differences are found.
Thirty Years of Demography
Authors: Teachman Jay D. , Paasch Kathleen , Carver Karen Price
Published: March 2007

In this paper, we present a content analysis of Demography, the official journal of the Population Association of America. Our results reflect patterns of change and stability in a number of areas, including: subjects covered, number of authors, gender of authors, type of data used, source of data used, affiliation of authors and statistical procedures employed. The data suggest that the field of population research has become increasingly bureaucratized and complex, while at the same time continuing to focus on familiar research subjects. A relatively small number of population research centers contribute disproportionately to the journal.
Simplicity and Complexity in the Effects of Parental Structure on High School Graduation
Authors: Wojtkiewicz Roger A.
Published: March 2007

As more and more children experience nonintact families because of nonmarital birth or parental marital disruption, researchers have paid more attention to whether nonintact family experiences have negative effects on later life. This study uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to consider how experiences of parental structure affect chances of high school graduation. The study shows that the negative effects of parental structure are simpler than theoretical notions might suggest.
The Slowing Metabolism of Marriage: Figures from 1988 U.S. Marital Status Life Tables
Authors: Schoen Robert , Weinick Robin M.
Published: March 2007

Marital status life tables for the United States, 1988, show a continuing retreat from marriage. For both sexes, the proportion ever marrying declined and the average age at first marriage rose. The 1988 rates imply that 43% of marriages end in divorce. That represents a slight decline from the 1983 figure, and suggests that divorce has peaked at a level below that estimated in earlier analyses.
A simple measure of fertility control
Authors: Anderson Barbara A. , Silver Brian D.
Published: March 2007

We describe a simple measure of fertility control: the proportion of all births from the age-specific fertility schedule that occurs among women by age 35. This measure has broad applicability because it does not require information on marital fertility rates. When both the proportion of births by age 35 and the most commonly used measure of fertility control, m, are calculated for a population over time, they are correlated very highly. Because of increasing levels of nonmarital fertility in several developed countries, measures of fertility control that are based on marital fertility are less appropriate now than in the past.
The effects of child health on marital status and family structure
Authors: Corman Hope , Kaestner Robert
Published: March 2007

The purpose of this paper is to provide evidence on the effect of child health on marital stability and family structure in an economic framework. We use the 1988 National Health Interview Survey’s Child Health Supplement, with a sample of about 9,000 families, to test whether having an unhealthy child decreases the mother’s chance of being married and whether it increases her chance of living in an extended family. Using two different measures of child health, we find that having an unhealthy child decreases the mother’s likelihood of being married. Our results imply that children in poor health are more likely to face obstacles beyond their illness because they also are more likely to suffer the consequences of poverty and the poor schooling outcomes that result from being raised in a female-headed household. The only mitigating factor is that unhealthy white children are more likely than their healthy counterparts to be living in an extended family.
Drug use as a risk factor for premarital teen pregnancy and abortion in a National Sample of Young White Women
Authors: Mensch Barbara , Kandel Denise B.
Published: March 2007

The relationship between adolescent drug use and premarital teen pregnancy and abortion as a pregnancy outcome among sexually active women is investigated in a sample of white women from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Event history analysis is used to explore whether prior drug use has a unique effect on premarital teen pregnancy, with controls for personality, lifestyle, and biological factors. Logistic regression is used to estimate whether drug use affects the decision to terminate a premarital teen pregnancy. The results show that the risk of premarital teen pregnancy is nearly four times as high for those who have used illicit drugs other than marijuana as for those with no history of any prior substance involvement. Furthermore, illicit drug use increases the likelihood of an abortion by a factor of 5. Policy implications of the findings are discussed.
Locational returns to human capital: Minority access to suburban community resources
Authors: Logan John R. , Alba Richard D.
Published: March 2007

The suburbanization of racial and ethnic minorities is analyzed in terms of the locational resources provided by their communities of residence. In suburbs in the New York CMSA, non-Hispanic whites and Asians, on average, live in communities with higher average socioeconomic status, while Hispanics and blacks live in the less desirable suburbs. Models predicting suburban socioeconomic status for each racial/ethnic group show that whites and Hispanics receive consistent returns on income, acculturation, and family status. Asians’ locational patterns differ because they are unrelated to measures of acculturation; for blacks, locational outcomes correspond least to any of these human capital characteristics.
Fertility transition, conscious choice, and numeracy
Authors: van de Walle Etienne
Published: March 2007

One of the preconditions of the fertility transition, as stated by A.J. Coale, is that reproductive decisions must be within the calculus of conscious choice. It is suggested that the change in mentality which leads to family limitation includes “numeracy about children,” a clear notion of what family size ought to be and the awareness of individuals of where they stand with respect to the norm. The article explores the hypothesis that numeracy about children appeared historically in various times and places, and that the conceptualization of family size was a necessary condition for adopting family limitation.
The perceived impact of child care costs on women’s labor supply and fertility
Authors: Mason Karen Oppenheim , Kuhlthau Karen
Published: March 2007

In a sample of Detroit-area mothers of preschool-aged children interviewed in 1986, one-third reported that child care problems had constrained their employment. Such reports were relatively prevalent among poor women. those without relatives nearby, and those willing to entrust the care of their children to nonfamily members. Only one-tenth of the sample reported a similar child care constraint on fertility, a phenomenon unrelated to income but relatively prevalent among women with strong labor force attachment. The results suggest that policies to increase the supply of child care or to lower its cost could increase female labor supply by a substantial fraction, with an even greater rise among women most at risk of poverty and reliance on public assistance, but probably would not raise fertility significantly.
Immigrants’ ages and the structure of stationary populations with below-replacement fertility
Authors: Schmertmann Carl P.
Published: March 2007

A sustained regime of low fertility plus immigration yields an unusual kind of stationary population. The author demonstrates that all stationary populations have a common structure, and that the familiar replacement-level fertility population is the youngest among the many stationary populations corresponding to a particular life table. This finding has important consequences for policy because although fertility increase and immigration are equally effective at halting population decline, immigration is inferior as a means of rejuvenating low-fertility populations. In fact, an immigration-based policy could make a low-fertility population older rather than younger. The paper includes examples using U.S. and West German vital rates.
Generation, ethnicity, and marriage: Historical patterns in the Northern United States
Authors: Landale Nancy S. , Tolnay Stewart E.
Published: March 2007

Immigration was a prominent feature of American life during the early decades of the twentieth century. About 40% of the white population was of foreign birth or parentage, and immigrants were increasingly from diverse national origins. Using data from the Public Use Microdata Sample of the 1910 U.S. Census, we examine generational and ethnic differences in marital timing. The analysis reveals a striking pattern of delayed marriage among native whites with foreign parents, but marked ethnic variation in the extent of marriage delay within the second generation. We hypothesize that locational factors, especially diverse economic opportunities, were important in shaping this marriage pattern. Separate multilevel analyses are conducted for females and for males living in urban and in rural places. Although significant effects for a variety of contextual factors are found, generational and ethnic differences in nuptial timing persist in multivariate models.
The effect of expansions in medicaid income eligibility on abortion
Authors: Joyce Theodore , Kaestner Robert
Published: March 2007

In this paper we examine the effect of expansions in Medicaid income eligibility on abortion, using individual-level data from South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia. The results suggest that for unmarried nonblack women with less than a high school degree, expansions of income eligibility lowered the probability of abortion by two to five percentage points. Most of the impact of the Medicaid expansions on abortion occurred in the first round of expansions from approximately 45% of the federal poverty level to 100%. For black unmarried women with less than a high school degree, we generally find no effect of expansions in Medicaid income eligibility on abortion.
Neighborhood Context and Residential Mobility
Authors: Lee Barrett A. , Oropesa R. S. , Kanan James W.
Published: March 2007

This paper extends the search for neighborhood contextual effects to residential mobility. We propose that neighborhood consists of subjective and objective domains, both of which are crosscut by substantive (social/physical) and temporal (current/change) dimensions. Measures of neighborhood characteristics consistent with our conceptualization are used to estimate the impact of context on mobility thoughts and on actual mobility in a sample of Nashville residents. Although individual statuses such as age and tenure remain important antecedents of mobility, subjective features of neighborhood context also play a role—albeit limited and indirect—in the decision to move or to stay.
Echoes of the Baby Boom and Bust: Recent and Prospective Changes in Living Alone among Elderly Widows in the United States
Authors: Macunovich Diane J. , Easterlin Richard A. , Schaeffer Christine M. , Crimmins Eileen M.
Published: March 2007

Today the great majority of noninstitutionalized elderly widows live alone, a striking increase from a quarter-century ago. A noticeable difference has occurred, however, in trends by age; the proportion of the young-old widows living alone is starting to decline. while that of the old-old continues to increase. We use a model suggested by earlier studies to explain the emergence of this difference, and assess the prospects of its continuing over the next three decades. We find that the recent differential change in the proportions of younger and older widows living alone is due primarily to a differential change in kin availability that has emerged as the baby boomers’ parents have begun to reach retirement age. Over the next decade, the same type of differential change by age in kin availability will continue; living alone is likely to become less common among young-old than among old-old widows, in a reversal of the pattern of the last quarter-century. In the first two decades of the next century, as the baby boom affects kin availability among the old-old, and as the subsequent baby bust affects that among the young-old, the age pattern of living arrangements among elderly widows will reverse once again.
Stability and Change in Temporal Distance between the Elderly and Their Children
Authors: Silverstein Merril
Published: March 2007

Drawing on a developmental model of late-life migration, this paper investigates how older people’s health and social characteristics influence stability and change in their temporal distance from their children. Data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging are used to examine both discrete transitions and continuous change in distance over a four-year period. Decline in older parents’ physical health increased the propensity of parents and children to become temporally closer to each other. Among those parent-child pairs who had become closer, the conjunction of declining health and widowhood increased both the degree of non-coresident proximity and the likelihood of transition to coresidence. The findings portray a geographically resilient family that adjusts to the changing needs of its older members.
The Influence of Nonmarital Childbearing on the Formation of First Marriages
Authors: Bennett Neil G. , Bloom David E. , Miller Cynthia K.
Published: March 2007

We document a negative association between nonmarital childbearing and the subsequent likelihood of first marriage in the United States, controlling for a variety of potentially confounding influences. Nonmarital childbearing does not appear to be driven by low expectations of future marriage. Rather, it tends to be an unexpected and unwanted event, whose effects on a woman’s subsequent likelihood of first marriage are negative on balance. We find that women who bear a child outside marriage and who receive welfare have a particularly low probability of marrying subsequently, although there is no evidence that AFDC recipients have lower expectations of marriage. In addition, we find no evidence that stigma associated with nonmarital childbearing plays an important role in this process or that the demands of children significantly reduce unmarried mothers’ time for marriage market activities.
The Impact of “Parent Care” on Female Labor Supply Decisions
Authors: Ettner Susan L.
Published: March 2007

Data from the 1986–1988 Survey of Income and Program Participation panels were used to analyze how informal-caregiving of disabled elderly parents affected female labor supply. Instrumental variables analyses suggested that coresidence with a disabled parent leads to a large, significant reduction in work hours, due primarily to withdrawal from the labor force. Although the impact of nonhousehold member caregiving was insignificant, evidence of an effect was stronger when commitment of caregiving time was greater. Projections of female labor force participation rates should account for potential increases in caregiving demand due to the aging of the U.S. population.
Redefining Single-Parent Families: Cohabitation and Changing Family Reality
Authors: Bumpass Larry L. , Raley R. Kelly
Published: March 2007

This paper explores the implications, for the measured prevalence and duration of mother-only families, of marked changes in nonmarital fertility, unmarried cohabitation, and homeleaving and re-entry. Throughout, estimates are compared on the basis of marital definitions and definitions including cohabitation. The duration of the first single-parent spell appears to have increased under the marital definition, but declines substantially when cohabitations are taken into account. A substantial proportion of single mothers have spent some time as single parents while in their parents’ household. Hence we argue that definitions of single-parent families must be based on living arrangements rather than on the parents’ marital status.
What Do We Know About the Timing of Fertility Transitions in Europe?
Authors: Guinnane Timothy W. , Okun Barbara S. , Trussell James
Published: March 2007

The Princeton project on the decline of fertility in Europe (the European Fertility Project) suggested that this historical fertility transition occurred virtually simultaneously in a wide variety of economic and social environments. This finding has been cited widely as evidence for an innovation/diffusion view of fertility transitions. We demonstrate that the demographic methods used to date the fertility transition in Europe—primarily Ig, and (to a lesser extent) the Coale-Trussell M&m indices—may fail to detect the initial stages of a fertility transition and therefore cannot be used as the basis for strong statements about the timing of transitions. We review these measurement problems and their implications for the current understanding of the European fertility transition.
Household Registration Type and Compliance with the “One Child” Policy in China, 1979–1988
Authors: Cooney Rosemary Santana , Li Jiali
Published: March 2007

This research analyzes how type of household registration, which reflects the degree of government control, affects compliance with China’s “one child” policy for women at risk during the first decade of implementation. Although socioeconomic and cultural factors have significant effects on four fertility events after first live birth, household registration type is the most important. Furthermore, household registration type interacts with urbanization in such a way that the modernization influence associated with urbanization is more evident for women under less government control. The notable success of China’s family planning program is linked to its unique system of government control.
How Economic Development and Family Planning Programs Combined to Reduce Indonesian Fertility
Authors: Gertler Paul J. , Molyneaux John W.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the contributions of family planning programs, economic development, and women’s status to Indonesian fertility decline from 1982 to 1987. Methodologically we unify seemingly conflicting demographic and economic frameworks into a single “structural” proximate-cause model as well as controlling statistically for the targeted (nonrandom) placement of family planning program inputs. The results are consistent with both frameworks: 75% of the fertility decline resulted from increased contraceptive use, but was induced primarily through economic development and improved education and economic opportunities for females. Even so, the dramatic impact of the changes in demand-side factors (education and economic development) on contraceptive use was possible only because there already existed a highly responsive contraceptive supply delivery system.
Linked Lives, Dependent Demise? Survival Analysis of Husbands and Wives
Authors: Smith Ken R. , Zick Cathleen D.
Published: March 2007

Past research has found that married individuals have substantially lower risks of mortality than their single counterparts. This paper examines how household characteristics affect spouses’ risks of mortality. A paired hazard rate model is estimated and tests are made to ascertain whether the estimated coefficients associated with risk factors differ between husbands’ and wives’ equations. Cigarette smoking, risk-avoidance behavior, poverty, and children are found to affect wives’ and husbands’ mortality in similar ways. Divorce, which can be interpreted as the termination of this shared household environment, is found to affect spouses differently.
From austerity to prosperity? Migration and child poverty among mainland and island Puerto Ricans
Authors: Oropesa R.S. , Landale Nancy S.
Published: March 2007

Analyses of migrants’ economic circumstances typically use the native-born in the destination as a comparison group. We use the 1990 Census Public Use Microdata Samples for the United States and Puerto Rico to demonstrate the benefits of a comparative approach that includes data from both the origin and the destination. Specifically, the primary objective is to determine how and why the risk of child poverty is associated with migration from Puerto Rico to the United States. The results show that migration reduces the risk of child poverty, partly because better jobs are available on the mainland. Employment, human capital, family structure, and public assistance cannot completely explain observed differences. The results also show that the economic benefits of migration continue for the native-born on the mainland and that return migration to Puerto Rico is associated with impoverishment.
You can go home again: Evidence from longitudinal data
Authors: Reagan Patricia B. , Olsen Randall J.
Published: March 2007

In this paper we analyze the economic and demographic factors that influence return migration, focusing on generation 1.5 immigrants. Using longitudinal data from the 1979 youth cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLSY79), we track residential histories of young immigrants to the United States and analyze the covariates associated with return migration to their home country. Overall, return migration appears to respond to economic incentives, as well as to cultural and linguistic ties to the United States and the home country. We find no role for welfare magnets in the decision to return, but we learn that welfare participation leads to lower probability of return migration. Finally, we see no evidence of a skill bias in return migration, where skill is measured by performance on the Armed Forces Qualifying Test.
Migradollars and mortality: The effects of migration on infant survival in Mexico
Authors: Kanaiaupuni Shawn Malia , Donato Katharine M.
Published: March 2007

We apply multilevel methods to data from Mexico to examine how village migration patterns affect infant survival outcomes in origins. We argue that migration is a cumulative process with varying health effects at different stages of its progression, and test several related hypotheses. Findings suggest higher rates of infant mortality in communities experiencing intense U.S. migration. However, two factors diminish the disruptive effects of migration: migradollars, or migrant remittances to villages, and the institutionalization of migration over time. Mortality risks are low when remittances are high and decrease as migration becomes increasingly salient to livelihoods of communities. Together, the findings indicate eventual benefits to all infants, irrespective of household migration experience, as a result of the development of social and economic processes related to U.S. migration.
Entry or exit? A transition-probability approach to explaining the high prevalence of single motherhood among black women
Authors: Rendall Michael S.
Published: March 2007

I analyze the prevalence of single motherhood among black and non-Hispanic white women in terms of differences in entry and exit. Higher initial entry rates among black women, especially through unpartnered childbearing, account for slightly more than half the difference between blacks and whites in the prevalence of single motherhood. The remainder of the difference is due to black single mothers’ much lower rates of exit through union formation and to their very high rates of reentry through dissolution of these later unions. Entry and exit rates through the 1990s imply a widening racial gap.
A century of U.S. censuses and the language characteristics of immigrants
Authors: Stevens Gillian
Published: March 2007

Since 1890, every U.S. census but one has asked about the language characteristics of the U.S. population. This almost uninterrupted data series, however, has been shaped by contemporaneous presumptions about the ties between language and ethnicity, the likelihood of proficiency in English among various subgroups, and practical constraints. I describe shifts across censuses in the phrasing of questions about language, the coding of responses, and the subpopulations for which the questions were asked and the results were published. I then describe the data generated by these items and discuss their interpretation. I conclude with a summary of the major insights and limitations of a century’s worth of data.
Kinship networks that cross racial lines: The exception or the rule?
Authors: Goldstein Joshua R.
Published: March 2007

I estimate the frequencies of interracial kin relations, an important indicator of the isolation of racial groups in the United States. I use two techniques to estimate the size and heterogeneity of extended families. First, I develop a simple model that takes account only of kinship network sizes and intermarriage levels by race. This model allows a crude estimation of the frequency of multiracial kinship networks. Second, I produce more precise empirical estimates using a new hot-deck imputation method for synthesizing kinship networks from household-level survey data (the June 1990 Current Population Survey and the 1994 General Social Survey). One in seven whites, one in three blacks, four in five Asians, and more than 19 in 20 American Indians are closely related to someone of a different racial group. Despite an intermarriage rate of about 1%, about 20% of Americans count someone from a different racial group among their kin.
Trends in the intergenerational transmission of divorce
Authors: Wolfinger Nicholas H.
Published: March 2007

I use data from the 1973-1996 NORC General Social Survey to examine trends in the intergenerational transmission of divorce. the propensity for the children of divorce to end their own marriages. The rate of divorce transmission declined by almost 50% in the study period. This result was essentially unchanged by statistical controls for various personal and family background differences between respondents.
Geographic morbidity differentials in the late nineteenth-century United States
Authors: Elman Cheryl , Myers George C.
Published: March 2007

We use a national cross-sectional database, the 1880 Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample, to examine aggregate patterns and individual-level estimates of chronic-disease morbidity and long-term disability in the United States in the late nineteenth century. Despite higher levels of urban mortality in 1880, morbidity prevalence rates were highest in the rural areas of the country, especially in the western and the southern regions. Equations using microdata show that the estimated risk of chronic disease and impairment was highest for males and females who were older, of lower socioeconomic status, or from rural areas. This era was marked by geographically uneven but significant levels of endemic chronic disease, likely the outcomes of prior episodes of infectious disease and exposure to conditions generated by human action, such as the Civil War and migration.
The role of education in explaining and forecasting trends in functional limitations among older Americans*
Authors: Freedman Vicki A. , Martin Linda G.
Published: March 2007

Using the Survey of Income and Program Participation, we document the importance of education in accounting for declines in functional limitations among older Americans from 1984 to 1993. Of the eight demographic and socioeconomic variables considered, education is most important in accounting for recent trends. The relationship between educational attainment and functioning has not changed measurably, but educational attainment has increased greatly during this period. Our analysis suggests, all else being equal, that future changes in education will continue to contribute to improvements in functioning, although at a reduced rate.
Multivariate survivorship analysis using two cross-sectional samples
Authors: Hill Mark E.
Published: March 2007

As an alternative to survival analysis with longitudinal data, I introduce a method that can be applied when one observes the same cohort in two cross-sectional samples collected at different points in time. The method allows for the estimation of log-probability survivorship models that estimate the influence of multiple time-invariant factors on survival over a time interval separating two samples. This approach can be used whenever the survival process can be adequately conceptualized as an irreversible single-decrement process (e.g., mortality, the transition to first marriage among a cohort of never-married individuals). Using data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (Ruggles and Sobek 1997), I illustrate the multivariate method through an investigation of the effects of race, parity, and educational attainment on the survival of older women in the United States.
Fertility estimation from open birth-interval data*
Authors: Schmertmann Carl P.
Published: March 2007

Censuses and surveys frequently collect information on period fertility through questions on the timing of last births. The standard approach to estimating fertility with open-interval data uses the proportion of women giving birth in the year before the interview. I propose a more efficient, maximum likelihood method for estimating fertility from open-interval data. I illustrate a mathematical derivation of the new method, perform sensitivity analyses, and conduct empirical tests with Brazilian census data. The new estimators have small biases and lower variance than standard estimators for open-interval data. Consequently, the new method is more likely to generate accurate results from small or moderately sized samples.
The residency decision of elderly indonesians: A nested logit analysis
Authors: Cameron Lisa
Published: March 2007

This paper is the first study of which the author is aware that examines elderly Indonesians’ residency decisions. The 1993 Indonesian Family Life Survey provides detailed data on the living children of a sample of elderly individuals. This allows a nested logit to be estimated, which pays due respect to the role of children’s characteristics in determining the residency outcome. The estimated earnings potentials of the parents and their children are included as explanatory variables but are not found to be important determinants of coresidency.
Understanding the twentieth-century decline in chronic conditions among older men
Authors: Costa Dora L.
Published: March 2007

I argue that the shift from manual to white-collar jobs and reduced exposure to infectious disease were important determinants of declines in chronic disease rates among older men from the early 1900s to the 1970s and 1980s. The average decline in chronic respiratory problems, valvular heart disease, arteriosclerosis, and joint and back problems was about 66%. Occupational shifts accounted for 29% of the decline; the decreased prevalence of infectious disease accounted for 18%; the remainder are unexplained. The duration of chronic conditions has remained unchanged since the early 1900s, but when disability is measured by difficulty in walking, men with chronic conditions are less disabled now than they were in the past.
Obesity, disease, and functional limitation in later life
Authors: Himes Christine L.
Published: March 2007

Little is known about the effects of obesity late in life. Using data from the Longitudinal Study of Aging and the Assets and Health Dynamics of the Oldest Old Survey, this study finds an increased prevalence of obesity, over time, among those 70 and older. Obesity is related most strongly to limitations in activities of daily living (ADLs) for women and to activities related to mobility. One ADL, eating, has a negative association to obesity. Obesity is associated with an increased prevalence of arthritis, diabetes, and hypertension. These results are cross-sectional and are based on self-reports of height and weight; they must be interpreted cautiously.
Son preference and sex composition of children: Evidence from india
Authors: Clark Shelley
Published: March 2007

Although the effect of son preference on sex composition of children ever born is undetectable in national-level estimates that aggregate across all families, this article provides empirical evidence from India that son preference has two pronounced and predictable family-level effects on the sex composition of children ever born. First, data from India show that smaller families have a significantly higher proportion of sons than larger families. Second, socially and economically disadvantaged couples and couples from the northern region of India not only want but also attain a higher proportion of sons, if the effects of family size are controlled.
Are births underreported in rural China? Manipulation of statistical records in response to China’s population policies
Authors: Merli M. Giovanna , Raftery Adrian E.
Published: March 2007

Under the current family planning policy in China, the criterion for evaluating all parties involved in the birth planning system provides an incentive for everyone to see that the policy is met, either in reality through strict enforcement of family planning regulations, or statistically through manipulation of statistical records. We investigate underreporting of births in four rural counties of northern China, using data from a 1992 sample survey featuring a reproductive history. To clarify the mechanisms of underreporting, we focus on the ways in which reporting errors may affect the distribution of first births by time since marriage. The results of our investigation suggest that in three of the four counties, first-birth intervals are lengthened by underreporting of girl babies and by replacing them with second births reported as first births.
Is there competition between breast-feeding and maternal employment?
Authors: Roe Brian , Whittington Leslie A. , Fein Sara Beck , Teisl Mario F.
Published: March 2007

Theory suggests that the decision to return to employment after childbirth and the decision to breast-feed may be jointly determined. We estimate models of simultaneous equations for two different aspects of the relationship between maternal employment and breast-feeding using 1993-1994 data from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s Infant Feeding Practices Study. We first explore the simultaneous duration of breast-feeding and work leave following childbirth. We find that the duration of leave from work significantly affects the duration of breast-feeding, but the effect of breast-feeding on work leave is insignificant. We also estimate models of the daily hours of work and breast-feedings at infant ages 3 months and 6 months postpartum. At both times, the intensity of work effort significantly affects the intensity of breast-feeding, but the reverse is generally not found. Competition clearly exists between work and breast-feeding for many women in our sample.
The impact of wives’ earnings on income inequality: Issues and estimates
Authors: Cancian Maria , Reed Deborah
Published: March 2007

We estimate the extent to which rising family income inequality can be explained by changes in the earnings of married women. We develop a decomposition equation that separates single persons from married couples (decomposition by population group) and, for married couples, distinguishes the impact of wives ’ earnings from other sources of income (decomposition by income source). Despite the rising correlation between husbands’ and wives’ earnings, changes in wives ’ earnings do not explain a substantial portion of the increase in family income inequality. Our results contradict those of some previous analyses. The inconsistency of recent esti-mates can be traced to the use of a variety of conceptually different approaches in the previous literature. We clarify these approaches by explicitly distinguishing the conceptual issues, analyzing the empirical components, and providing comprehensive estimates.
The educational attainment of young women: Role model effects of female high school faculty
Authors: Nixon Lucia A. , Robinson Michael D.
Published: March 2007

To test for the presence of role model effects of female high school faculty and professional staff on young women in high school, we estimate several models of educational attainment for young women using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Exposure to female high school faculty and professional staff has a positive impact on the educational attainment of young women. This result, combined with our finding that female faculty and professional staff have no significant impact on the educational attainment of young men, supports a female role model hypothesis.
The gender gap in the economic well-being of nonresident fathers and custodial mothers
Authors: Bianchi Suzanne M. , Subaiya Lekha , Kahn Joan R.
Published: March 2007

Using a unique sample of couples with children, we estimate the gender gap in economic well-being after marital separation, something that previous studies of individuals who divorce have not been able to do. The income-to-needs levels of formerly married mothers are only 56% those of their former husbands. The postseparation gender gap is reduced if the wife was employed full-time and was an above-average earner before marital disruption. The gap is also relatively small among the least economically independent wives, those who were not employed before separation. For the latter group, the husband’s relatively low income tends to reduce the gender gap.