bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Socio-economic Determinants of Labour Mobility in
Pakistan
Authors: Ahmed Ather Maqsood , Sirageldin Ismail
Published: August 2018

Why do factors of production, especially the labour, migrate
from one region or sector to another? This question, which remains
fundamental to economic and human resource development, has been a major
topic among researchers. While considerable progress has been made in
developing a theoretical model of migration, the empirical verification
of this model using individual level data has remained unresolved. With
the availability of Population, Labour Force, and Migration (PLM) Survey
data, this paper attempts to develop a model of internal migration in
Pakistan, to serve as a guiding paradigm to write down a model for
meaningful estimation. Keeping in line with the literature, three types
of variables have been identified as the possible determinants of
migration. These variables relate to the possession of human capital,
commitment to job and place of residence, and cost-related factors.
After controlling for other variables, it was observed that, in general,
migrants were selective especially in terms of age, education, and
choice of occupation. These findings are consistent with the evidence
from other developing countries.
K. Mahadevan (ed). Fertility Policies in Asian Countries. New
Delhi: Sage Publications. 1989.320 pp.Hardbound. Indian Rs
225.00.
Authors: Arzal Mohammad
Published: August 2018

The book consists of twelve papers and presents the
contributors' observations regarding fertility control policies in
Australia, Bangladesh, China, India, Iran, Kuwait, Malaysia, Pakistan,
Sri Lanka, Taiwan, and Thailand. In the first paper, which provides a
perspective (mostly in the Indian context) to the concerns about policy
formulation for fertility control, the authors discuss various issues
and place an emphasis on the multi sectoral approach. The need to
implement the policies for eligible couples, for female education and
enhancement of female status, for strengthening the strategies for
programme development and management, and for making policies relating
to the elderly people, is stressed in this paper. The paper on planned
birth policies of China provides a view of the actions and the successes
achieved through organised programmes in the recent years. Conceding
that the programme in China was not entirely voluntary, the paper also
highlights the problems and failures of the fertility control efforts
through the emphasis on a single-child family, especially in the rural
areas.
Uphoff Norman, Priti Ramamurthy, and Roy Steiner. Managing
Irrigation: Analysing and Improving the Performance of Bureaucracies.
New Delhi/Newbury Park/London: Sage Publications. 1991. Hardbound. Price
not given.
Authors: Hussain Zakir
Published: August 2018

The book; under review provides a valuable account of the
issues and factors in managing the irrigation system, and presents a
lucid and thorough discussion on the performance of the irrigation
bureaucracies. It comprises two parts: the first outlines the factors
affecting irrigation performance under a wide range of topics in the
first five chapters. In Chapter One, the authors have attempted to
assess the performance of the irrigation bureaucracies, conceptualise
irrigation management issues, and build an empirical base for analysis
while drawing upon the experience of ten country cases in Asia, Africa,
and Latin America. The Second Chapter focuses on the variations in the
management structures identified and the types of irrigation systems;
and it defines the variables of the management structures. The
activities and objectives of irrigation management are discussed in
Chapter Three. The objectives include: greater production and
productivity of irrigation projects; improved water distribution;
reduction in conflicts; greater resource mobilisation and a sustained
system performance. The authors also highlight the performance criterion
in this chapter. They identify about six contextual factors which affect
the objectives and the performance of irrigation, which are discussed in
detail in Chapter Four. In Chapter Five, some organisational variables,
which would lead to improvements in irrigation, are examined.
Why Do Small Firms Fail to Graduate to Medium and Large Firms in
Pakistan·
Authors: Kemal A, R,
Published: August 2018

In pursuit of its labour welfare policy and to provide
protection against certain contingencies, the government plays a crucial
role in introducing and encouraging the payment of fringe benefits.l The
proportion of total remunerations which make up fringe benefits is
influenced by preferential treatment under income tax laws.2 For
example, social security and employee's old-age benefits schemes are
financed, respectively, t~ough contributions by the employers at 7
percent and 5 percent of the wages of secured workers. These expenses
are reduced if an employer pays more in the form of fringe benefits than
wages. Some other gains, including reduction in labour turnover,
increase in labour productivity and creation of a favourable public
image of the enterprise encourage employers to offer fringe benefits
rather than wages. On the other hand, interests of labour unions are to
protect or to get an increase in thcic total pay package. Workers will
prefer fringe benefits if, with their introduction, net income rises and
savings are made by group purchases of some benefits. Thus, these
benefits affect decision of labour supply and demand, and enhance
welfare.
Substitution among Labour, Capital, Imported Raw Materials, and
Bank Credit in Pakistan's Manufacturing
Authors: Khan Ashfaque H. , Rafiq Mohammad
Published: August 2018

In view of its central importance to economic analysis a vast
number of studies relating to the production function in its various
functional forms has been undertaken during the last three decades in
both the developed and the developing countries. Studies pertaining of
the developing countries were primarily directed towards finding the
degree of substitution between labour and capital. These efforts were
ignited by the desire to explain the existence of high rates of
unemployment, particularly in the urban areas. It has been argued that
the near zero elasticity of substitution between labour and capital has
been responsible for the existence of the high rate of unemployment.l On
the other hand, higher values for the elasticity of substitution could
lead to the substitution of abundant or the faster growing factor of
production (labour) for the scarce or slow growing factor (capital).
Hence, a knowledge of the value of the elasticity of substitution
between labour and capital in the manufacturing sector is essential for
understanding the growing unemployment problem in developing countries,
including Pakistan.
National Savings Rates of India and Pakistan: A Macroeconometric
Analysis
Authors: Kazmi Aqdas Ali
Published: August 2018

Savings provide the most important economic link between the
past, present and future of a country. An adequate rate of national
saving is regarded as an essential condition for achieving targets in
the investment and growth rates. For these reasons,· the literature
relating to savings and consumption with particular emphasis on their
determinants-demographic, monetary, fiscal etc., has shown a phenomenal
growth during the last half century. An up-to-date and comprehensive
review of theoretical and empirical literature on savings made in Kazmi
(1991) led to the conclusion that while literature on the determinants
of savings (private, corporate and public) had proliferated over time,
there was little work on the 'quantification offactors' causing a
differential in the savings rates of two particular countries. This
paper makes an attempt to fill this gap by a~opting a simple but
innovative methodology which has been used for analysing the national
savings rates of India and Pakistan and constitutes the following steps:
(a) A regression model incorporating the major macroeconomic variables
relevant for explaining the national saving behaviour was specified. (b)
The estimation· of the model was instrumental in identification of the
signs and magnitudes of coefficients of the variables of the model. Thus
the variables could be classified in terms of their negative or positive
correlation with the national saving rates. (c) The difference in the
average values of the relevant macro variables of the two countries was
estimated. This information as given in Table 1 for India and Pakistan
for 1960-88 indicates that on an average basis Pakistan performed better
than India in real growth rate, export ratio,
Urbanisation and Environmental Degradation in Pakistan
Authors: Sahibzada Shamim A.
Published: August 2018

The concern over the environment is not new. But the
development policymakers have recently recognised that failing to take
the costs of environmental damage into account will slow down the
process of raising incomes and the wellbeing of the people. This
recognition is in view of the fact that economic development in both
industrialised and developing countries, especially during the past half
century, has not been environmentally sustainable. The current debate
regarding the environmental sustainability of economic development has
even challenged the very question of development. The measurement of per
capita income is no longer accepted as a sufficient indicator of
people's well-being when it comes to the quality of life and its
sustainability over time. The true. growth rate in the Gross National
Product (GNP) of a country will definitely be lower than the absolute
rate if the depreciation of natural resources resulting from
environmental degradation is allowed. The Indonesian growth rate of 7.1
percent in 1971-84 has been reported to be actually 4.0 percent when the
depreciation of three resources i.e., petroleum, timber, and soil were
taken into account [Warford and Partow (1989)].
The Policy of Irrigation Water Pricing in Pakistan: Aims,
Assessment and Needed Redirections
Authors: Chaudhry M. Ghaffar , Abdul Majid Syed , Chaudhry Ghulam Mustafa
Published: August 2018

Pakistan operates the world's largest well-articulated
irrigation system. Individual farms receive water from the gravity flow
of a massive network of canals, distributaries and watercourses fed by
the Indus River and its tributaries. In recent years public tubewells
have become an additional, though somewhat limited, source of irrigation
water. The canal system, which has been in operation for more than 100
years, is believed to have become too obsolete to cater for the needs of
modern agriculture and is, therefore, in desperate need for
rehabilitation. But resource-poor Pakistan cannot undertake the
rehabilitation work on its own, and must depend on foreign loans or at
least ensure full recovery of annual operation and maintenance (0 and M)
expenditures [Chaudhry (1985); Duane (1975) and Hotes (1984)]. Apart
from generating investment funds, the cost recovery, with higher water
charges, would also lead to greater water-use efficiency and an
equitable income distribution at the farm level [Chaudhry (1985) and
Hotes (1984»). Can this all be accomplished by simply raising water
charges? In this paper, we have attempted to answer this question. To
answer the question systematically, we have divided the paper in five
sections. The current state of Pakistan's irrigation system, water
charges and cost recovery is discussed in Section 2. Section 3 deals
with possible impact of rising water charges on cost recovery,
investments, efficiency of water use and income distribution under the
current system of water pricing. Section 4 presents policy alternatives
that would ensure an effective cost recoyery, greater water-use
efficiency and a more equitable distribution of farm income. Section 5
presents the summary and conclusions of the paper.
Capital Labour Substitution in the Large-scale Food-processing
Industry in Pakistan: Some Recent Evidence
Authors: Baitese George E. , Malik Sohail J. , Sultana Nargis
Published: August 2018

Food-processing is one of the first industries developed by
man. Most agricultural commodities require some sort of processing for
them to be edible. In primitive societies man processed his own food
using the simple mortar and pestle. With the advent of industrialisation
there emerged important implications for foodprocessing technologies.
The workers in the industrial and cOlllDlercial sectors of urban areas
required greater supplies of food. This encouraged the establishment of
processing plants supplemented by storage facilities to ensure that the
urban population received the food that they required. Food-processing,
therefore, began to occupy a fairly predominant position in the overall
industrial sector. Its , importance was heightened by its strong
backward and forward linkages with the rest of the economy. In a
labour-surplus developing economy, where most of the labour is
unemployed or underemployed, the absorption of this surplus labour force
in the industrial sector is an important issue. In recent decades, there
has been significant growth in the industrial sector in most developing
countries, in terms of both investment and output. This has not resulted
in a similar rate of increase in labour absorption. This is often
attributed to the adoption of inappropriate technologies see, for
example, Malik and Battese (1986) or to the lack of technological
alternatives. In this paper we seek to determine whether capital-labour
substitution is possible in the large-scale food-processing sector in
Pakistan.
Economic Analysis of the Effects of Rice Price Distortions in
Pakistan: 1975-90
Authors: Iqbal Nuzhat
Published: August 2018

Price distortions induce inefficient utilisation of resources
by giving incorrect signals to producers and consumers. Since distorted
prices do not reflect the real value of resources, quantities of goods
and services produced may not be consistent with their demand. The price
Distortions may be caused by a number of different reasons. They may,
for instance, be caused by monopolistic tendencies, preferential
treatment of a particular sector of economy, establishment of diffusion
of a particular product or an input, etc. In fact, price distortions
occur sometimes from deliberate and sometime inadvertent Government
policies of subsidies and price supports in pursuance of certain social
or economic objectives. Both producers and consumers maximise their
economic welfare by allocating their resources in response to price
signals from a fully comPetitive market. Since movements in commodity
prices especially food prices affect producers and consumers in exactly
the opposite way, fixation of their prices in developing countries
represents a policy dilemma. While prices of all items used by consumers
and .producers are iml?ortant, food prices carry a unique significance
in low income countries where the marginal propensity to consume is very
high. Since farm producers are also food consumers, the net impact of a
food price change in their case will depend on the extent to which they
have emerged from a subsistence economy. However, if inputs are subject
to price fixation, the impact will be felt more readily and directly. In
fact, where there is no Government intervention, prices equilibrate
consumer demand with the productive capacities of producers. If prices
are distorted by any agency~ their allocative role is seriously
diminished. Imperfections of both size and operation being prevailed
ultimately induce misallocation of resources in the country. Resource
use efficiencies increase, if government restricts its role to ensuring
proper functioning of the market and lets the prices to be determined by
the forces of demand and supply.
A Critical Evaluation of the Budgetary Process for Public
Expenditure in Pakistan
Authors: Qureshi Sarfraz Khan
Published: August 2018

Over the past decade budgetary policies have emphasised a firm
restraint on the growth of total expenditure and a restructuring of the
profile of both current and development expenditure to deal with a high
fiscal deficit in Pakistan. Regarding current expenditure, there has
been an increasing emphasis on meeting fully the recurrent cost
requirements of completed public investments and on the minimisation of
the costly subsidY programmes. Development expenditure has been
increasingly directed towards the priority sectors pertaining to
physical and social infrastructure and to early completion of the
on-going development projects. Effective public expenditure management
places heavy demands on existing government institutions and has a much
wider scope than the formulation and implementation of conventional
expenditure budgets. The formulation of an appropriate macroeconomic
framework, selection of projects on a sound basis, prqper designing of
public sector investment programmes and appropriate linkages between
planning and budgetary processes is as, if not more, important than the
narrow focus on expenditure budgeting [Hussain (1979»). Notwithstanding
the importance of these broader aspects of budgetary issues, this paper
does not deal with such public expenditure management issues. Instead it
concentrates on a description and an analysis of the formulation process
of government expenditure budgeting. The conventional practice in
Pakistan in the formulation of expenditure budgets is based on the
''bottom-up" demands of various government agencies. Feats regarding the
adverse consequences of deficit financing with respect to macro
instability have persuaded the government to impose constraints on total
expenditure. Donor agencies, especially the International Monetary Fund,
have been instrumental in the imposition of 'top-down' constraints on
the 'bottom-up' demands.
Pakistan, Ministry of Finance, Revenue and Economic Affairs.
Report of Prime Minister's Task Force on Agriculture. Islamabad.
December 1993. 68 pp.
Authors: Chaudhry M. Ghaffar
Published: August 2018

In consonance with her commitment to the enhanced welfare of
the masses, the Prime Minister of Pakistan, shortly after assuming the
office, set up a "Task Force on Agriculture" to look into the problems
of agriculture in general and issues of agricultural taxation including
Ushr in particular and to submit a report in six weeks. The task force
worked day and night to comply with the Prime Minister's directive and
submitted its report within the stipulated time. As must be clear from
the terms of reference, the task force was to define the major problems
of agriculture and to recommend solutions that are practical and
acceptable to all concerned. Before going into the specific problems and
justifiable recommendations, the report presents an overview of the
state of the art in agriculture and pinpoints the facts that agriculture
is still the major sector of the Pakistani economy in many ways, and
that its growth performance, though laudable, has progressively fallen
in the Eighties with signs of stagnating agricultural production in the
Nineties. These trends, coupled with the rapid growth of population,
have resulted in mounting import bills of basic foods against scarce
foreign exchange earnings.
Internal Migration, Earnings, and the Importance of
Self-selection
Authors: Ahmed Ather Maqsood , Sirageldin Ismail
Published: August 2018

This paper analyses the impact of internal migration on
earnings within the human capital model framework. Since migrants
constitute a non-random sample of population, the endogenous nature of
migration decision warrants necessary correction for the selectivity
bias in their eamings function. The Mincer-type eamings model is thus
augmented to determine the extent of this bias. Besides estimating the
standard Mincerian eamings model, the paper also attempts to verify the
leam-as-you-go proposition by introducing migration duration variables
in the eamings model. Based on the household level Population, Labour
Force, and Migration (1979- 80) survey data, the analysis yields the
following important conclusions: (i) the data allowed a meaningful
estimation of Mincerian earnings function for migrants and non-migrants;
(ii) the level of schooling was one of the important determinants of the
distribution of income both for migrants and non-migrants-the four
categorical variables of education were in general statistically
significant with expected signs, implying that the hypothesis of a
positive relationship between income and education was accepted; (iii)
the rates of return to education improved systematically with higher
levels of education, thus confirming the notion that education serves as
a signalling device; (iv) the age-income profile was almost linear for
migrants but showed concavity for non-migrants; (v) the presence of
sample-selection was observed for migrants; and (vi) even after
controlling for the influence of personal characteristics, i.e.,
education and experience, the long-standing migrants eamed relatively
more at the destination than the more recent migrants.
Mother's Education and Utilisation of Health Care Services in
Pakistan
Authors: Khan Zubeda , Soomro Ghulam Y. , Soomro Samina
Published: August 2018

Education is one of the crucial social development variables
especially for mothers which enriches their mind about their social and
reproductive experiences and broadens their understanding to make better
choices for themselves and rearing and bearing of their children. In
many developing countries there is evidence that mother's education
plays an important role in determining child mortality even in
situations where the medical facilities are scanty [Berrera (1990);
Caldwell (1979, 1981)]. Education, it is argued influences women's
beliefs about the good health, causes and cures of diseases that
increases the demand of the utilisation of modern health care
facilities. Therefore, educated mothers are more likely to seek medical
treatment for themselves and for their children resulting in higher
intensity of the use of a better quality modern care that grows with the
advancement of education. Evidence from the research done elsewhere
suggests that mother's education has individual positive effect on the
use of health care facilities Abbas and Walker (1986); Berrera (1990)
and Caldwell (1979) have pointed out that educated mothers are more
likely to take advantage of the modern health facilities than their
uneducated counterparts in compliance to the recommended treatments
primarily due to the different attitudes in regard to the knowledge and
perceptions of the importance of the modern medicine in the care of
their children. Berrera (1990) in a study of child nutrition in the
Philippines found that the children of educated mothers took more
advantage of the public health care facilities than the children of
uneducated mothers.
Tariff Equilibrium with Customs Union
Authors: Togan Subidey
Published: August 2018

It is well known from Kemp and Wan (1976) that under customs
union an increase in group welfare can occur without affecting that of
the rest of the world whenever the common external tariff is positioned
in a way so as to offset exactly the terms of trade and export quantity
effects felt by it. The purpose of this paper is to study the effects of
the customs union starting from arbitrary given initial tariff rates and
determine cases when the union as well as the non-union countries may
gain from the formation of the customs union.
Reabsorption of Returning Workers from the Gulf: The Asian
Experience
Authors: Kazi Shahnaz
Published: August 2018

The paper addresses the problems of the reintegration of
return migrants in the context of major South Asian and South East Asian
labour exporting countries to the Middle East. The discussion that
follows briefly analyses the changing trends in outmigration, the
socioeconomic characteristics of return migrants to the region -their
skills, occupations, job preferences, region of residence, as well as
the macro-level employment situation in the concerned countries. Further
the study investigates to what extent the return migration is associated
with skill acquisition or upgrading of skills and the pattern of
utilisation by the returnees of the accumulated savings including both
remittance income and the amount they bring back. The discussion is
largely based on evidence provided in surveys of return migrants
mostIyundertaken in the mid eighties when due to the collapse of oil
prices and the subsequem cuts in the development programme of the Middle
Eastern ecOD
Dynamic Budgetary Consequences of the 1991 NFC Award
Authors: Ghaus A. F. Aisha , Pasha Hafiz A.
Published: August 2018

The National Finance Commission (NFC) award of 1991 has been
acclaimed to be a historic achievement of the previous elected
government. It has come after a gap of many years (due since 1979) and
some abortive attempts earlier.! Meanwhile, the provinces had run into
large, chronic deficits on the current account, indicating the growing
inadequacy of divisible pool transfers as per the provisions of the 1974
award. Consequently, as an ad hoc provision, deficit grants and other
subventions had been used increasingly to support the on-going
operations of the provinces. At their peak in 1987-88, these grants were
Rs 17 billion (see Table 1), equivalent to about 2 percent of the Gross
Domestic Product (GDP) and financed over one-fourths of the provincial
current expenditure. Also, the federal government took over the
responsibility of provision of some provincial responsibilities as
contained in the Concurrent List of the Constitution like SCARPS, flood
control, fertiliser subsidy, universities, etc.
Privatisation and Public Sector Reform: The Political Economy of
State Intervention
Authors: K.S. Jomo
Published: August 2018

The dominant ideas in development economics have changed
considerably over the four decades of its existence. Similarly, the
influence of theory on policymaking has also changed, not only with new
ideas, but more importantly, with the ideological preferences of those
with power and influence, especially at the international level. During
the eighties, development economics-which has emphasised market failures
and other welfare reasons for judicious state intervention to ensure
greater equity and efficiency-was under siege from the intellectual
assault of market neo-conservatives in control of the major
international economic institutions such· as the World Bank and
International Monetary Fund, and supported by the dominant ideologies of
Thatcherism and Reaganomics at the global level. Political economy,
rejected in the seventies as an unsophisticated nineteenth century
approach appropriated by the political Left, re-emerged in the hands of
the Right as the main weapon in this assault. The collapse of the Soviet
Union and allied East European regimes and the marketisation of the
remaining economies still claiming to be in the socialist camp only
seemed to prove the worst claims of the generally politically
conservative economic liberals of the late twentieth century.
Private Tubewell Development and Groundwater Markets in Pakistan:
A District-level Analysis
Authors: Meinzen-Dick Rum
Published: August 2018

Groundwater irrigation, which was developed in the 1960s to
increase vertical drainage to prevent waterlogging and salinisation in
canal commands, has now become a major component of the overall
irrigation sector in Pakistan. An estimated 37 percent of total
irrigation supplies at the farm gate comes from groundwater [NESPAK
(1991)]. Along with the shift in purpose for groundwater development
from providing drainage to providing irrigation supplies, has come a
shift from public to private tubewells as the primary source of
groundwater in Pakistan. The increase in private tubewells has not only
increased the total availability of water for crop production, but also
provided farmers with greater control over irrigation supplies. Because
groundwater from private tubewells is generally not tied to the rigid
warabandi schedule of canal deliveries, water applications can be more
closely matched to crop requirements. The result is higher yields and
higher economic returns to irrigated agriculture [Meinzen-Di
Inaugural Address
Authors: Jafarey V. A.
Published: August 2018

I deem it a privilege to inaugurate the Tenth Annual General
Meeting of the Pakistan Society of Development Economists. It is with
great satisfaction that I note the Society's contribution to increasing
awareness about the process of economic development in general and about
its unfolding in Pakistan in particular. Since its beginnings a decade
ago, the Society has grown into an institution committed to the cause of
development economics, which is to throw light on the ways and means of
raising standards of living in developing countries. It has since
broadened its scope as well as gained in depth. The Society and its
office-bearers deserve our congratulations on these achievements. I am
sure what we have seen of the Society's performance, especially on the
occasion of the Annual General Meetings, is an earnest of more of the
same in the future as well. We are today standing on the threshold of a
profound transformation of the basic equations of the world economy. On
the one hand, the old world order, based on the North-South divide, is
being replaced gradually by a more complex system in which several rival
economic blocks are emerging in the North as well as in the South.
Unlike the past, the North is no longer the sole purveyor of capital and
technical know-how, nor is the South completely dependent for its
technical wherewithal on the North. On the other hand, with the
disintegration of the Soviet Union, a unipolar political structure with
obvious economic implications appears to be taking shape. Even though
the overall picture of the New International Economic Order in the
post-Cold War era still remains hazy, one thing is absolutely clear: the
North as an engine of growth for the South has slowed down considerably
and the relationship appears to be more one of interdependence, in which
countries like Japan and South Korea have developed significant capital
surpluses.
Trade and Industrialisation Revisited (The Iqbal Memorial
Lecture)
Authors: Little Ian M. D.
Published: August 2018

In 1970 the book Industry and Trade in Some Developing
Countries by myself, Tibor Scitovsky and Maurice Scott was published
(referred to henceforth as LSS). It exposed the bad effects of the
import substitution policies which had been the prevailing mode of
industrialisation in developing countries for a long time. It advocated
the elimination of quotas and a uniform tariff of 10-15 percent. The
exchange rate should be adjusted to ensure that exports were
competitive. If any industry was, exceptionally, to receive more
promotion than that implied by the low tariff, this should be by some
form of subsidisation which should not exceed another 10-15 percent of
domestic value-added. LSS is, I believe, still the most quoted work on
the subject. l It was quite closely related in theory to the methods of
cost-benefit analysis proposed by Little and Mirrlees (1974) (referred
to henceforth as LM). While the influence of LSS on the development
literature was extensive, neither it nor LM would seem to have had any
influence whatever on the policies of most developing countries for a
decade. This is, perhaps, the normal fate of policyoriented books. Korea
and Taiwan continued with the export policies they had already
initiated. Admittedly these policies eliminated the bias against exports
inherent in protective policies, a bias that LSS had castigated. But
Korea, and to a lesser extent Taiwan, also reverted in the 1970s to the
selective promotion of some mainly capital intensive industries
(referred to as Heavy and Chemical Industiies (HCI) in Korea) producing
tradables. In Korea, towards the end of the 1970s, it is possible that
LSS played some part in the modification of the HCI drive. But only in
Chile was the policy of a low uniform tariff, as advocated by LSS,
wholly adopted. Chile has stuck to this policy.
Poverty, Agricultural Intensification, and the Environment (The
Distinguishedl Lecture)
Authors: Andersen Per Pinstrup , Pandya-Lorch Rajul
Published: August 2018

As the world's population increases by almost 100 million
people each year during the next two to three decades-the largest annual
population increase in history- agricultural intensification, i.e.
production of more food on land already being cultivated, is a must.
There is little scope for increasing cultivated land in Asia, North
Africa, and Central America, while in Sub-Saharan Africa and South
America, physical and technological constraints are likely to restrain
large-scale conversion of potentially cultivable land [Dram and Hojjati
(1994)]. Agricultural intensification is already the main source of
increased food production. I Intensive use of chemical fertilizers,
pesticides, and irrigation technology, in combination with
higher-yielding crop varieties, has led to enough food being produced in
the world such that if it were evenly distributed, no one would go
hungry. Global food production per capita increased from about 260
kilograms (kgs) in 1950 to about 350 kgs in the early 1990s [FAD
(1992)]. In developing countries the corresponding increase was from 170
kgs to 250 kgs.
Agricultural Price Policy for Growth (The Distinguishedl
Lecture)
Authors: Mellor John W.
Published: August 2018

Superb agricultural resources, substantial investment, and
relatively liberal macroeconomic policies have provided Pakistan with a
high agricultural growth rate and strong multipliers of that
agricultural growth to other sectors of the economy. Those growth rates
and the consequent multipliers could have been much greater. More
troubling, there are unsustainable elements to the past growth rates
that are already showing themselves. Thus, without attention to key
policy issues, Pakistan's agricultural and overall growth rates are
bound to decline significantly. Indeed, that decline is already
underway. Correct pricing, investment, and institutional development
policies can reverse that decline and accelerate growth rates well
beyond those of the past. Agricultural price policy is of central
importance in its own right and plays an important indirect role in each
of the other key policy areas. Thus, this paper, while concerned with
agricultural growth and its multipliers, wraps the discussion around
price policy issues.
The Structural Adjustment Process and Agricultural Change in
Pakistan in the 1980s and 1990s (The Distinguishedl Lecture)
Authors: Khan Mahmood Hasan
Published: August 2018

Pakistan has gone through many eventful political and economic
changes since the late 1970s. Some of them have been transient, but many
were deep and structural, hence even irreversible. Their consequences
have been both promising and disturbing. The political system, since at
least the mid-1980s, has been gradually democratised, but it is by no
means stabilised as the events of 1993 clearly indicate. The economy has
grown and transformed, but its management has been erratic. Many of the
changes in the economy have come with the growth of the informal sector,
both visible and invisible (illicit), which remains unaccounted for in
the official statistics. In several urban and rural areas, persuasive
though mainly anecdotal evidence suggests that the average standard of
living far exceeds the impressions one gets from the national income
accounts, household income and expenditure surveys. The growth of
rent-seeking in the public and private sectors, illicit trade in drugs
and smuggling across borders, informal activities in the rural and urban
areas, and evasion of taxes have all contributed to the growth of the
economy and distribution of assets and income.
Determining Real Exchange Rates
Authors: Usman Afridi
Published: August 2018

The paper re-examines the determinants of the real exchange rate equation, and suggests alternative determinants where appropriate, as well as improvements in proxies from those conventionally used. The paper emphasises the weaknesses of the multicountry approach to empirical study of the real exchange rate. While real exchange rates are determined for Pakistan, the terms-of-trade variable is found to be insignificant. Excess demand for domestic credit, capital flow, and the "opinions" variable are all found to be inversely related to the RER. Thus government expenditure on non-tradable is positively related; and better specification of the technological change variable shows support for the balance effect.
Role of Institutions in the Industrial Development of
Pakistan
Authors: Hijazi Tahir
Published: August 2018

This study examines why a perverse kind of industrialisation
developed in Pakistan. Following independence, the Pakistan government
embarked on industrialisation proclaimed as a short-cut to eradicate
poverty and reduce unemployment. But after four decades, it is still
considered among the poorest countries '. of the world, with per capita
annual income of only $375. The share of manufacturing sector in the GDP
grew from a nominal base in 1947 to 19.7 percent in 1990, but it did·
not help raise the standard of living. Pakistan's economy grew
eight-fold I during this period whereas some other developing countries
grew many times tenfold.2 Adopting a historical perspective reveals a
perverse kind of industrialisation in Pakistan, which inhibits its
ability to eradicate poverty [Sixth Five-year Plan 1983-88 (1982)]. By a
perverse kind of industrialisation, I mean a degenerate system of
industrial development which, instead of helping the national economy to
expand and grow retards its process . .It implies selective industrial
investment which is more capitalintensive, remains import-dependent,
ignores forward and backward linkages, ensures the dominance of larger
oligopolists firms, produces lUXUry goods, does not help increase
productivity, and is located in a few urban centres. This level of
industry creates relatively few jobs, depends on imported materials and
instead of increasing value-added at home, and puts extra pressure on.
foreign exchange reserves which the economy must meet by exporting
primary goods. The absence of forward and backward linkages restricts
opportunities for industrial expansion and larger firms relying on .
foreign technology employ relatively few workers; and they produce
lUXUry goods for higher income brackets, all of which does not benefit
the masses. Such perverse characteristics of industrialisation
contribute little to the eradication of poverty [Lawrence
(1974)].
Utilisation, Excess Capacity, and Performance of Family Welfare
Centres in a District of Punjab
Authors: Manzoor Khaleda
Published: August 2018

The Eighth Five-Year Plan has allocated Rs 9.1 billion to the
Population Welfare Programme (PWP) which constitutes 0.5 percent of the
total plan size of Rs 1700.5 biIlion (in 1992-93). During 1992-93, a
total of Rs 828.9 miIlion was allocated to PWP, of which 85 percent was
reported to be utilised, which amounts to Rs 702.87 million. Service
delivery of family planning is a major focus and component of the PWP.
The major service delivery sources include Family Welfare Centres (FWCs)
in both the government and NGO sectors, Mobile Service Units (MSUs),
Reproductive Health Services (RHS), Village-based Family Planning
Workers (VBFPW), Hakeems, and Private Medical Practitioners, etc. All
sources of delivery of family planning during the three decades of
programme efforts have achieved the maximum extent of effective
coverage, estimated to be between 15-20 percent in early 1990s but no
more than 5 percent to rural population [Rukanuddin and Hardee Cleveland
(1992)]. Besides limited coverage, the low level of accessibility and
limited contraceptive availability, particularly to rural populace, have
also seriously affected the performance of the PWP. These concerns have
been addressed in the Eighth Five-Year Plan, which aims at increasing
the urban coverage from 54 percent to 100 percent and the rural coverage
from 5 percent to 70 percent. The major mode of service delivery to
increase the rural coverage is the ViII age-based Family Planning Worker
(VBFPW) scheme that would offer FP services to approximately 12000
villages. This scheme, however, focuses on non-clinical and temporary
methods only.
Analysis of Allocative Efficiency in Northern Pakistan:
Estimation, Causes, and Policy Implications
Authors: Hussain Syed Sajidin
Published: August 2018

Realising productivity gains in agriculture is an important
challenge for Pakistan. With a fast-growing population (3.1 percent per
year), it is difficult for the economy to meet domestic food
requirements. Like most less developed countries, yields of most crops
in Pakistan are lower than the yields realised by researchers in on-farm
experiments conducted in the farmers’ fields. The average yield gap
between the farmers’ current yields and what would be profitable and
feasible, given existing technology, is reported to be 30 to 40 percent
[Byerlee (1987)]. Byerlee (1987), however, suggests that there is a
potential for increasing productivity in most of the irrigated areas of
Pakistan through the use of new inputs and a more efficient use of the
existing inputs to exploit the genetic potential of the existing
varieties. He argues that the wide array of new inputs vastly increases
the complexity of crop management.1 The technical skills required to use
the new inputs efficiently are much greater than the simple skills
needed to adopt varietal changes. Hence, with more complex technological
options and a more dynamic environment, the potential for economic
inefficiency (both technical and allocative) is substantially increased.
The purpose of this paper is to measure farm-specific allocative
efficiency and the effect of management variables on allocative
efficiency of wheat producers in an irrigated area in northern
Pakistan.2 This will assist researchers, extension agents, and
policy-makers to identify the ways and means to increase wheat
productivity in Pakistan.
What Explains the Current High Rate of Inflation in
Pakistan?
Authors: Hasan M.Aynul , Khan Ashfaque H. , Pasha Hafiz A. , Rasheed M.Ajaz
Published: August 2018

One of the most significant developments in the current
economic scene in Pakistan has been the sharp increase in the rate of
inflation. The annual average rate of increase in the wholesale price
index (WPI) during the first seven months (July-January 1994-95) of the
current fiscal year has been about 19 percent as opposed to 11.3 percent
during the same period last year. A similar increase was also witnessed
in the consumer price index (CPI) which accelerated to 13 percent as
opposed to 11.1 percent during the previous period. Such a sharp
increase in prices in recent months has not only caused alarm in the
academic circles but has equally disturbed the country’s chief
executive, the Prime Minister. The recent surge of inflation is a matter
of serious concern for a variety of reasons. First, Pakistan has been a
low-inflation country as it has experienced price stability during the
last three decades. The rate of inflation, as measured by an increase in
the WPI, averaged 2.6 percent during the 1960s. The components of the
WPI, i.e., food, raw materials, manufactures, and fuel and lubricants,
also grew by an average rate ranging from 2.0 to 3.4 percent p.a. during
then 1960s (see Table 1 for relevant statistics). The rate of inflation
crossed the single-digit threshold during the 1970s. The WPI and its
components increased at an annual average rate ranging from 12 to 18
percent. The double-digit inflation during the 1970s has been the result
of two major oil shocks, a massive devaluation of currency, and
devastating floods destroying agricultural crops. Pakistan returned to
the fold of the single-digit inflation during the 1980s. The rate of
inflation remained at the single-digit level during the first three
years of the 1990s with the exception of 1990-91, when the rate of
inflation increased to 11.7 percent as a result of the Gulf War. It is
only during the outgoing fiscal year and in the current year that the
rising inflation is posing a major threat to macroeconomic
stability.
Allocation of Foreign Aid in a Segmented International
Context
Authors: Cohen S. I.
Published: August 2018

Research on the topic of distribution of foreign aid among
recipients is regaining momentum. This is understandable in the light of
the knowledge that presently the richest 40 percent of the developing
world receives twice as much aid per capita as the poorest 40 percent
[UNDP (1994)], while once upon a time foreign aid was sought to
accomplish exactly the opposite. The distribution of official
development assistance (ODA) is conventionally studied in terms of two
models: the ‘recipient needs’ model and the ‘donor interest’ model. In
the first, foreign aid flows are seen to satisfy the socio-economic
needs of the recipient countries. In the second, national interests of
donors, whether these are military, political or commercial, are seen to
determine the direction and size of the foreign aid. Empirical studies
were made to ascertain and understand whether, on balance, foreign aid
is motivated by recipient need or donor interest. There is one class of
studies, for example, Mcgillivray (1989), which estimates for donors a
compound measure of their allocation bias. The other class of studies,
i.e., Maizels and Nissanke (1984) and Grilli and Riess (1992), employs
regression analysis to explain allocation of foreign aid by
representative variables of recipient need and donor
interest.
National Income Accounting and Environment: A Case Study of
Waterlogging and Salinity in Pakistan
Authors: Kemal A. R. , Bilquees Faiz , Mahmood Zafar
Published: August 2018

Whereas irrigation plays a crucial role in improving
agricultural productivity, it has resulted in waterlogging and salinity
problems in Pakistan due to both water seepage from canals and overdoses
of water encouraged by inappropriate water pricing practices.1 As many
as 2.2 million hectares of land forming 13 percent of the cultivated
area in Pakistan suffer from an acute problem of waterlogging and
salinity, i.e., water table is less than 5 feet from the normal surface
level. [See Government of Pakistan (1993)]. Despite the government’s
effort to resolve the problem through an expansive network of public
tubewells under the salinity control and reclamation project (SCARP),
the problem seems to have worsened over time. The higher water doses may
increase the growth of output in the short run, but by degrading the
agricultural lands and increasing impurities of potable water, etc.,
they adversely affect the long-run growth. These adverse effects of the
inappropriate irrigation practices on agricultural productivity are
generally not accounted for in the national income accounting system.
Accordingly, there is a need to account for the forgone economic,
social, and environmental benefits. In this regard, the environmental
resource accounting provides a valuable information base for integrated
development planning and policy. The approach allows for segregation and
elaboration of all environment-related flows and stocks of traditional
accounts, linkage of physical accounts with monetary environmental
accounts and balance sheets, assessment of environmental costs and
benefits, accounting for the maintenance of tangible wealth, and
elaboration and measurement of the indicators of
environmentally-adjusted production and income.
Estimation of the Black Economy of Pakistan through the Monetary
Approach
Authors: Ahmed Mehnaz , Ahmed Qazi Masood
Published: August 2018

In the recent years the “black economy” has held immense
attraction for academics as well as policy-makers. This is because the
presence of the black economy is responsible for distortions in the
official estimates of macro-economic variables like income generation,
employment, rate of inflation, etc., and thus the possible effect on the
economic policies cannot be ascertained properly. It, therefore, becomes
imperative to investigate this area of research. Researchers have
defined the underground economy in alternative ways. The underground
economy defined by varied names like black, shadow, hidden, informal,
clandestine, second, parallel economy has been divided in four
categories for the use of a standard basis of classification [Feige
(1990)].