bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Occupational mobility and fertility in metropolitan Latin America
Authors: Boyd Monica
Published: March 2007

The relation between career mobility and reproductive behavior is examined for five cities of developing Latin American nations: Bogota, Columbia; San Jose, Costa Rica; Mexico City, Mexico; Panama City, Panama; and Caracas, Venezuela. The data are obtained from fertility surveys conducted between September, 1963, and August, 1964, in the above-named cities under the auspices of the Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía (CELADE), and the analysis is based on information from 600–800 women per city who have been married only once and married ten years or more. Career mobility is defined as an occupational change of the husband between the date of marriage and 1963–1964, based on the Hall-Jones occupational scale. Reproductive behavior is operationalized as the number of live births. The conclusion of the multiple classification analysis is that the process of career mobility in four out of five Latin American samples is not a significant factor in explaining differential reproductive behavior. These results are compatible with a variety of North American studies which stress that variation heretofore ascribed to the process of mobility is an additive composite of past and present status effects. These findings are discussed; a theoretical and methodological critique of mobility-fertility research is presented.
Postamenorrheic versus postpartum strategies of contraception
Authors: Potter Robert G. , Masnick G. Stephan , Gendell Murray
Published: March 2007

The postpartum strategy of inserting an intra-uterine device shortly after a birth essentially eliminates the risk of conceiving again before starting contraception but maximizes the overlap between wearing time and postpartum anovulation when protection is not needed. In contrast, the postamenorrheic strategy of delaying insertion until right after the woman’s first menses all but removes overlap with anovulation but allows a chance of conception before start of contraception because sometimes an ovulation precedes the first menstruation.

In this paper some algebra is developed and utilized to see which of the two strategies delays the next conception longer. The postamenorrheic strategy is found to have a slight advantage over the postpartum approach for a wide range of fecundability levels, lengths of anovulation, and rates of continuation of IUD. However this slight advantage presupposes that insertions are taking place at the exact time prescribed. When a progressively larger factor of procrastination is introduced, the advantage rapidly passes from the postamenorrheic to the postpartum approach. An explanation for the differing sensitivity of the two insertion strategies with respect to procrastination is derived from the results of an earlier analysis.
Effects of U. S. immigration law on manpower characteristics of immigrants
Authors: Keely Charles B.
Published: March 2007

Changes in the national-origins quota system, the preference system, labor certification and adjustment-of-status provisions led to changes in the size and composition of immigration. Within a context of increasing size and changing area of origin, the proportion of immigrants with a stated occupation increased, and the occupational composition of total immigration and of immigration by continent of origin changed. Europe and the Americas generally switched to lower-skilled levels, and Asia, Africa and Oceania, to white-collar, especially professional, levels. The composition of occupational groups also changed, with Asia generally increasing its contribution and most noticeably so in the professional group. Adjustment of status has generally increased, but it has not become mainly a subterfuge for foreign students and exchange visitors to remain in the country. Relatives and refugees dominate the adjustee group.
Convenience of work and the job constraint of children
Authors: Darian Jean C.
Published: March 2007

This paper investigates whether convenient working conditions reduce the constraint of children on married women working. It is assumed that convenient working conditions are most important for women with heavy child-care responsibilities. Therefore, differentials in participation rates, by presence and age of children, are expected to be less pronounced in those occupations where a high proportion of jobs have convenient working conditions. Data are selected from the 1960 1/1000 Public Use Sample of the United States population. Those studied comprise white married women living with their husbands. The paper involves a comparison of differential participation rates of women by presence of children, between occupations grouped according to measures of convenience, using a multivariate analysis. The results indicate that differentials are least pronounced in those occupational groupings which have the highest percentage of convenience factors.
A technique for measuring the effect of economic base on opportunity for blacks
Authors: Cortese Charles F. , Leftwich Judith E.
Published: March 2007

An assessment of the occupational opportunities for selected groups of in-migrants (i.e., Negroes) requires a technique which controls for effects of both national and local employment patterns. We suggest a measure based upon the location quotient and referred to as the “differential opportunity ratio” as a method which provides the necessary controls. It is applicable in the comparative studies of cities and in analyses of other population groups for which data are available.
Sex selection with biased technologies and its effect on the population sex ratio
Authors: Mason Andrew , Bennett Neil G.
Published: March 2007

Current biomedical research on sex selection techniques may soon offer couples the opportunity to choose the sex of their children with greater certainty. A technique planned for marketing by mid-I978 can increase the probability of bearing a son to as much as 0.90. However, couples who wish to improve their chances of bearing a daughter have no such opportunity. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, a decision-making model is provided which describes how couples should choose among alternative sex-selection methods so as to maximize the probability of bearing their desired number of sons and daughters. Second, the effect of the widespread use of sex-selection techniques on the population sex ratio is explored. It is shown that even if populations have unbiased sex preferences, or sex preferences biased towards daughters, the use of biased sex-selection technologies may result in very high population sex ratios.
A two-sex nuptiality-mortality life table
Authors: Schoen Robert
Published: March 2007

The “problem of the sexes” has been one of trying to reconcile inconsistent male and female demographic rates. The present paper deals with that question in the context of a two-sex nuptiality-mortality life table. A “rectangular” population, with equal numbers of persons in each age-sex group, is introduced as a standard, and a standardization relationship expressed in equation (9) relates changes in rectangular population rates to changes in age-sex composition. The standardization relationship is shown to satisfy a number of desirable properties and produce a realistic two-sex model. The standardization approach is then applied to data from Sweden for 1973, and the results and their implications are discussed. In particular, it is seen that the total number of marriages in a two-sex population neither is nor should be bounded by the total numbers of marriages in the associated male and female one-sex nuptiality-mortality tables.
An analysis of the impact of education on family size
Authors: Janowitz Barbara S.
Published: March 2007

The impact of education on family size is divided into a direct effect (holding labor force participation and age at marriage constant) and an indirect effect (varying labor force participation and age at marriage). The results suggest that (I) the indirect effect of education is greater at higher levels of the wife’s education, (2) the direct effect is greater at lower levels of education in most cases, (3) the indirect effects do not vary systematically with husband’s education, (4) but the direct effect does vary systematically with husband’s education if the education of the wife is low but not if wife’s education is high.
A comparison between Northern and Southern blacks residing in the North
Authors: Lieberson Stanley , Wilkinson Christy A.
Published: March 2007

Differences between Southern and non-Southern blacks living in the North and West are considered for a wide variety of attributes such as employment, occupation, income, marital stability, and offspring’s performance in school. Migrant blacks have generally more favorable rates than their Northern- and Western-born compatriots after standard demographic controls are applied to an unusually detailed set of cross-tabulations based on the One-Percent Sample Tapes for 1960. Perhaps the sharpest gap exists with respect to marital condition; Southern blacks of both sexes are more likely to marry and, among those ever married, live more frequently with their spouses. Some of the results reported by earlier investigators require considerable modification. For example, the fact that Northern black men are less often at work than migrants has led to speculations about regional differences in work orientation among blacks, but a detailed analysis of labor force activity indicates this pattern does not hold for women. Likewise, the migrant income advantage is found to vary by education such that it is confined to those with low educational attainment. The use of sample tapes permits a novel analysis of differences between Northern-born blacks classified by whether they are second or at least third generation residents of the North (children of Southern- or Northern-born parents, respectively). For the attribute measured, school performance, the gap is essentially nil. Finally, an alternative is suggested to the existing causal interpretations of North-South gaps among black residents of the North. Reconsidered in particular are the higher labor force rates of migrant men and their more frequent employment in blue collar jobs.
Annual fertility rates from census data on own children: Comparisons with vital statistics data for the United States
Authors: Rindfuss Ronald R.
Published: March 2007

This paper begins by describing the procedure and data requirements for calculating annual fertility rates from census data on own children. Then, using data from the United States Censuses of 1960 and 1970, fully adjusted estimates are presented and compared with recorded vital statistics rates. Total fertility estimates derived from own children data for whites average less than two percent lower than the recorded rates—a difference that can be attributed partially to the fact that the estimates are adjusted for net eensus undercount but the recorded rates are not. Even without adjustments for mortality, children not living with their mothers, and net census undercount, the own children data estimates accurately replicate recorded trends (even though the levels are misspecified). The utility of own children data for the study of differential fertility is discussed.
A technique for estimating life expectancy with crude vital rates
Authors: McCann James C.
Published: March 2007

This paper describes a method of estimating life expectancy at birth on the basis of crude vital rates. The method is derived from stable population theory and it furnishes good estimates insofar as the current crude vital rates of a population are close to its intrinsic rates. This condition is generally met in closed populations which have not experienced sharp movements in fertility. The method is useful for estimating life expectancy in developing nations with good sample registration systems but for which information on age is of poor quality. It is also useful for estimating the movement of life expectancy in certain European nations in the period prior to regular census taking. There are a number of nations and regions in Europe for which long series of birth and death rates are available but for which census age counts are widely spaced.
Ethnic segregation in urban Israel
Authors: Klaff Vivian Z.
Published: March 2007

Using an ecological perspective, one aspect of the relationship of social distance and physical distance is analyzed in the three largest cities in Israel. The principal aim of the paper is to examine ethnic (country of origin) residential segregation as an indicator of social patterning within the society.

Despite the different demographic, topographical and functional characteristics of the three cities, fairly similar patterns of ethnic segregation are found using the technique of Smallest Space Analysis (SSA-I) to analyze index of dissimilarity matrices. Patterns of ethnic segregation are then related to the SES of sub-quarters to determine the nature of the internal structure of the cities.

It is suggested that ethnicity is an important variable in the process of social stratification in urban Israel, at least insofar as ecological relationships are concerned.
Migration differentials by education and occupation: Trends and variations
Authors: Long Larry H.
Published: March 2007

The effects of education on current migration propensities in the United States are examined for each age group, and an estimate is made of how these age-specific differentials cumulate over a lifetime in determining the number of times that individuals at different educational levels can expect to move over the course of their lives. The independent effects of age, education, and occupation are also examined. Two other sections investigate trends in educational selectivity of migration in the United States and international comparisons of occupational differences in migration.
Do statements about desired family size predict fertility? the case of Taiwan, 1967–1970
Authors: Freedman Ronald , Hermalin Albert I. , Chang Ming-Cheng
Published: March 2007

The predictive accuracy of respondents’ statements about their future fertility is examined, using interview data from a longitudinal study conducted in Taiwan. Two measures of preference are found to be highly intercorrelated; and regardless of which one is used, Taiwanese women are shown to predict their subsequent fertility at least as well as U.S. women. The preference measures are also predictive of rates of contraceptive use and abortion. While demographic and social characteristics are correlated with fertility in expected directions, statements about wanting more children prove to be highly predictive of subsequent fertility for both modern and less advanced segments of the population.
Socioeconomic status, value orientations, and fertility behavior in India
Authors: Poston Dudley L. , Singelmann Joachim
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the role assumed by value orientations in the explanation of fertility behavior. Specifically the concern is with the extent to which value orientations intervene between, or mediate, the relationship between socioeconomic status and fertility behavior. The relationships between socioeconomic status, four types of value orientations and three aspects of fertility behavior are examined among males in India. In most instances value orientations provide neither the sole nor the partial interpretations of the relationship between socioeconomic status and fertility. The results of this investigation suggest once again the inadequacy of value orientations as predictors of fertility behavior.
Open and closed birth intervals for once-married spouse-present white women
Authors: Hastings Donald W. , Robinson Walter W.
Published: March 2007

Using the 1970 1/1,000 Public Use Sample of the U.S. population, the relationships of the closed and open birth intervals with parity and mother’s age, with parity and marital duration and with children ever born/marital duration and mother’s age are analyzed. These findings both replicate and expand on Srinivasan’s earlier research on the open interval. The open interval is more sensitive as an index of marital fertility when marital duration and parity are controlled than when mother’s age and parity are controlled.
Simultaneity bias in migration models: An empirical examination
Authors: Greenwood Michael J.
Published: March 2007

A number of migration studies have attempted to explain migration that occurred over a given time interval by means of variables defined for the end of the period and/or variables relating to changes that occurred over the period. Since migration may influence end-of-period levels of explanatory variables by influencing the behavior of these variables over the period of migration, simultaneous-equations bias may be inherent in the parameter estimates of the many single-equation, multiple-regression analyses. This study constitutes an empirical examination of qualitative differences in the parameter estimates of five different types of migration models estimated for two different time periods, 1960 and 1970.
A note on the generalization of William Brass’s model
Authors: Biswas Suddhendu
Published: March 2007

The purpose of the present communication is to generalize a model of Brass’s (1958), relating to the probability distribution of births to mothers with completed fertility. A simple method of estimating the parameters of the model, based on successive iterations, has been dealt with. Finally, the improvement obtained by generalizing the Brass model has been tested by fitting the same to the maternity data of 5190 women in the United States in the age sector 45-49. An alternative variant of the model for quick computation of probabilities for higher order of births has been included. The application of the model for obtaining a refined index of fecundability and sterility has also been discussed.
Cross-Section Studies As Predictors of Trends in Birth Rates: A Note on Ekanem’s Results
Authors: Janowitz Barbara S.
Published: March 2007

Ekanem has shown that variations in socioeconomic development are associated with differences in birth rates. However, he has made no attempt to determine if his regression equations can be used to predict trends in fertility. This note shows that, using Ekanem’s data, the factors he found most significant in explaining differences in fertility playa minor role over time whereas per capita income, which he found to be relatively insignificant in explaining variations cross-sectionally, has a statistically significant impact over time .
Reduction in fertility due to induced abortions: A simulation model
Authors: Venkatacharya K.
Published: March 2007

The impact of induced abortion on fertility under Indian conditions is studied in this paper. The model is executed on a computer. First, matrices of birth probabilities specific to age and age at marriage are obtained, with the help of a simulation model, under various assumptions regarding the incidence of induced abortion. Later, making use of these matrices, period fertility measures such as age specific marital fertility rates and crude birth rates are obtained for India for the period 1961-75. One of the findings is that the effect of induced abortion in reducing the birth rate of India will be greater if it is used as a supplement to various family planning methods.
Preprocessing the 1960–1970 U. S. census public use samples
Authors: Sakoda James M. , Sakoda William J.
Published: March 2007

This is a report on computer programming undertaken to preprocess the 1960–1970 U. S. census public use samples to increase their accessibility. This includes wholesale recoding into positive integers from 1 to N, with 0 reserved for “not applicable”, combining household and person records, sorting records into ten 1/10,000 samples, compacting binary codes to fit on a single reel of tape, and the production of a revised set of formatted tapes.
Mortality risks, sequential decisions on births, and population growth
Authors: O’Hara Donald J.
Published: March 2007

The population growth rates implied by parental attempts to be highly certain of having a surviving son for old-age support are investigated. At life expectancies of 40 to 65 years, family-planning “strategies” using contraception are found to imply markedly lower growth rates (1.01.5 percent vs. 2.5 percent) than are both commonly observed and also previously derived by Heer and Smith. In contrast to strategies relying only on sterilization, contraceptive spacing of births permits parents to buy time and information. In particular, they can postpone deciding whether to have another child until they see if their infant son will survive the earliest years of childhood. These results suggest that many less developed countries might achieve a substantial reduction in birth rates, provided that family-planning programs emphasized contraception as well as sterilization and effectively communicated the idea of spacing births. Factors bearing on the range of applicability of the old-age-security hypothesis, and any results and policies derived from it, are also briefly analyzed.
A note on the population of seventeenth century London
Authors: Zito George V.
Published: March 2007

A least-squares analysis of the various estimates of the population of London during the seventeenth century discloses the probable degree of error in the work of William Petty and other early demographers. A new “average” population is calculated and the regression equation given which best satisfies the contemporary estimates.
Population size, military power, and Antinatal policy
Authors: Hendershot Gerry E.
Published: March 2007

A causal model. relating population size, economic development, military power and antinatal population policy is tested using data from 83 developing nations. The statistical findings are interpreted as supporting two hypotheses: (1) population size is a major determinant of military power; and (2) military power is a minor determinant of anti-natal population policy.
Construction of nuptiality tables for the single population in India: 1901–1931
Authors: Malaker C. R.
Published: March 2007

In this paper abridged nuptiality tables for the single population of India have been constructed for the three consecutive decades 1901–1911, 1911–1921 and 1921–1931. No significant time trend has been observed in the nuptiality rates among the single population of India. The rates are initially small, but increase rapidly until they reach a maximum at ages 25–30 for bachelors and 15–20 for spinsters, following which they gradually decline. During 1901–1931, unlike Western countries, India had not experienced any revolution in marriage habits encompassing traditional child marriages. The distinctive marks of the Indian age patterns of marriage are higher age-specific marriage rates combined with lower ages at marriage and lower proportions of people who never marry with relative stability of marriage habits during the early part of the twentieth century.
The prediction of fertility among catholics: A longitudinal analysis
Authors: Wilson Franklin D. , Bumpass Larry
Published: March 2007

A longitudinal analysis of the reproductive behavior of a sample of Catholics who were participants in the 1965 NFS and reinterviewed in 1969 is reported in this paper. Fertility over the period studied varied systematically with the additional number of children intended in 1965. In addition, this study has documented a predictive role for method of contraception and the experience of premarital pregnancy. Women using less effective methods and those premaritally pregnant had higher fertility over the interval net of controls for other variables in the analysis, including life-cycle stage and 1965 intentions. Surprisingly, the planning status of the last pregnancy before 1965 was not found to have any independent association with subsequent fertility.
Desired family size in Thailand: Are the responses meaningful?
Authors: Knodel John , Prachuabmoh Visid
Published: March 2007

Data for both rural and urban women in Thailand indicate that the large majority of respondents are able to provide numerical responses to questions on desired family size. Although there is evidence that some women tend to rationalize the number of children they have when stating the number they would want if they were recently married, the vast majority of respondents prefer a number which is different from the number of living children they had at the time of the interview. Women who had already reached or exceeded their desired number were almost universal in stating they wanted no additional children, whereas only a minority of women who had yet to reach their desired family size said they wanted no more children. Finally, the proportion of women who practiced family planning is substantially greater among women who had already achieved or exceeded their desired family size than among women who had fewer than their desired number. The results thus suggest that, in Thailand at least, responses to family size preferences need to be interpreted with caution but nevertheless can be of use to the population analyst.
Development, inequality, health care, and mortality at the older ages: a cross-national analysis
Authors: Weatherby Norman L. , Nam Charles B. , Isaac Larry W.
Published: March 2007

We examine mortality at ages 50 and above in female populations of 38 countries and control for variation in quality of the mortality data. We find that economic development, economic distributional inequality, and basic primary health care have independent cross-national effects on cause of death structures and that these effects are not uniform across the age intervals of interest. As improvements occur in level of living and heath care, age-specific death rates decline except at the oldest ages, at which point they may increase. Our results are interpreted in terms of their relevance for mortality research, theory, and policy.
Social and economic change, intergenerational relationships, and family formation in Taiwan
Authors: Thornton Arland , Chang Ming-Cheng , Sun Te-Hsiung
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the influence of social change and economic growth on intergenerational relationships and the formation of families in Taiwan. Using data from two island-wide surveys in 1973 and 1980, the analysis shows that, as expected, social change has been accompanied by rapid changes in family structure and relationships, including the spread of schooling, the employment of young people outside the family, increasing separation of the residences of parents and children before and after marriage, growing independence of young people, and increases in premarital sex and pregnancies. The position of a family in the social structure also influences the way young people interact with their parents and form their own families: women with educated fathers have more nonfamilial experiences than others, and farm origins tend to exert a traditional influence on the life course. Finally, experiences early in the life course have important ramifications for later behavior and transitions.
Job characteristics of spouses and their work shifts
Authors: Presser Harriet B.
Published: March 2007

This study builds on an earlier finding from the May 1980 Current Population Survey that one-third of full-time dual-earner couples with children in the United States include at least one spouse who works other than a regular day shift. Using the same data source, the relevance of husbands’ and wives’ job characteristics (occupation and industry) on their shift work status are considered, and the nature of the association between husbands’ and wives’ work shifts is explored. Four alternative models are initially posed and tested with log-linear analysis; these models vary in the extent to which a spouse’s shift work status is contingent upon the job characteristics of a husband or wife. None of these models fit the data. A modification of the simplest of the four models (using forward selection) is the best fitting model. It is not symmetrical: the wife’s shift is contingent upon both her occupation and industry and that of her husband, but the husband’s shift is contingent only upon his occupation and industry. There is a relationship between husband’s and wife’s shift, the direction of which depends upon the occupations of both spouses. This study demonstrates the importance of taking a “couple” perspective on shift work among married persons, and the need for models that include interaction effects.
New midyear age-sex-color-specific estimates of the U.S. population for the 1940s and 1950s: including a revision of coverage estimates for the 1940 and 1950 censuses
Authors: Land Kenneth C. , Hough George C. , McMillan Marilyn M.
Published: March 2007

This paper describes new midyear (July 1) estimates of the “true” population of the United States by age, sex, and color (white, nonwhite) for the 1940s and 1950s. It also presents the corresponding implied coverage estimates for the 1940 and 1950 censuses. The new population estimates are calculated by combining the most recent figures on the 1960 population with estimates of the demographic components of change for the 1950s and 1940s in an iterative reverse cohort-component projection algorithm. Among the principal findings of the new estimates are: (a) existing midyear estimates of the “true” population in the 1950s are 450,000 to 500,000 too high; (b) existing age-specific estimates for the 1950s tend to underestimate the population at the older ages (55 years and over) and overestimate the population in the young and middle adult years (15 to 54 years); (c) estimates of the “true” population in the 1940s were too low except for nonwhites at ages 65 and over; (d) existing estimates of percentage net undercount and underenumeration for the 1950 and 1940 censuses tend to be too high, substantially so for nonwhites in the 1940 Census; and (e) nonwhites were more completely enumerated in 1940 than in 1950. Thus, in addition to being methodologically and temporally consistent with post-1960 estimates, the new population estimates described here imply some substantial revisions in demographic, social, and economic statistics for the two decades prior to 1960.
Calculation of life tables from survey data: A technical note
Authors: Goldman Noreen , Pebley Anne R. , Lord Graham
Published: March 2007

Life table calculations from survey data are frequently based on events for which exact dates are not available. When these dates are coded in monthly form (e.g., century months), estimates should take into account the fact that the first duration interval—the interval which captures events occurring in the first month of exposure—is half the length of all remaining intervals. Although failure to do so has a trivial effect on many demographic calculations, estimates which are based on events which occur with high frequency in the first few months of exposure can be substantially biased. Estimates offecundability for four countries in the World Fertility Survey are used to illustrate this bias.
The place of odds ratios in the study of place, race and differential occupational opportunities
Authors: Semyonov Moshe , Hoyt Danny R. , Scott Richard Ira
Published: March 2007

During the last few decades the study of racial differences in occupational and economic attainment has progressed rapidly, both in terms of theory and research. The ecological study of the racial and ethnic organization of local labor markets has not. The use of odds ratios and occupation-specific categories may provide a fruitful avenue for future research in the study of inequality across space and time.
Residential preferences, community satisfaction, and the intention to move
Authors: Heaton Tim , Fredrickson Carl , Fuguitt Glenn V. , Zuiches James J.
Published: March 2007

This paper explores the role of size of place residential preference in the evolution of the intention to move out of the present community using data from the March 1974 NORC Amalgam Survey. People who prefer to live in a community having different size or location characteristics than their present residence are five times more likely to intend to move than those who have attained their preferred type of residence. Within these two groups, however, the particular configuration of current and preferred residence has no significant effect on the likelihood of intending to move. This finding justifies the creation of a simple dichotomous variable, preference status, contrasting these two groups. Community satisfaction and preference status are highly interrelated and each has an independent effect on intentions to move. Moreover, the effect of preference status on mobility intentions is somewhat larger than that for community satisfaction, indicating that residential preference plays a significant role in the decision-making process regarding migration.
Trends in Total and Marital Fertility for Black Americans, 1886–1899
Authors: Tolnay Stewart E.
Published: March 2007

Total fertility rates and age-specific marital fertility rates are estimated for the urban and rural black populations during the last fourteen years of the nineteenth century. The data source is a 1-in-750 sample of households from the 1900 .census manuscripts. The results show sharp differences in the levels of urban and rural reproduction, as well as differences in the timing of the well-known black fertility transition. Calculation of Coale-Trussell m-values suggests that, up to 1899, rural blacks were essentially a “natural fertility” population while urban residents apparently had a history of family limitation. These findings support the inference that at least some segments of the black population were practicing birth control before the turn of the twentieth century.
Female Employment and Fertility in Peninsular Malaysia: The Maternal Role Incompatibility Hypothesis Reconsidered
Authors: Mason Karen Oppenheim , Palan V. T.
Published: March 2007

Multivariate analysis of the 1974 Malaysian Fertility and Family Survey tests the hypothesis that an inverse relationship between women’s work and fertility occurs only when there are serious conflicts between working and caring for children. The results are only partly consistent with the hypothesis and suggest that normative conflicts between working and mothering affect the employment-fertility relationship in Malaysia more than spacio-temporal conflicts do. The lack of consistent evidence for the hypothesis, as well as some conceptual problems, lead us to propose an alternative framework for understanding variation in the employment-fertility relationship, both in Malaysia and elsewhere. This framework incorporates ideas from the role incompatibility hypothesis but views the employment-fertility relationship as dependent not just on role conflicts but more generally on the structure of the household’s socioeconomic opportunities.
CBR Versus TFR in Cross-National Fertility Research
Authors: Entwisle Barbara
Published: March 2007

This paper addresses the question of whether the crude birth rate (CBR) can be used as a proxy for more refined fertility measures in cross-national models of fertility determinants. It responds to a recent claim that the CBR represents an inappropriate fertility measure for these purposes. In the analysis, several strategies are used to assess the degree to which results based on the CBR are sensitive to lack of adjustment for age structure. The paper concludes that using the CBR as a proxy has minor and unimportant effects upon conclusions regarding fertility determinants.
Comparative Estimates of Teenage Illegitimacy in the United States, 1940–44 to 1970–74
Authors: O’Connell Martin
Published: March 2007

Incompleteness in the reporting of illegitimate births in the U.S. vital registration system due to the consistent nonparticipation of a number of large States has left data published by the National Center for Health Statistics open to considerable criticism. Utilizing retrospective marriage and fertility data from the June 1978 Current Population Survey, a national probability sample of 54,000 interviewed households, a time series on teenage illegitimacy for first births is constructed that permits an evaluation of similar Vital Statistics data on teenage illegitimacy since the 1940s. Although there are some indications of a slight underreporting of white illegitimate first births by Vital Statistics during the 1940s and early 1950s, the overall comparison produces a general consensus between the two data sources on the incidence of illegitimacy among both white and nonwhite teenagers for the period 1940–44 to 1970–74.
The Index of Overall Headship: A Simple Measure of Household Complexity Standardized for Age and Sex
Authors: Burch Thomas K.
Published: March 2007

This paper develops and tests an age-sex standardized measure of household complexity, defined broadly as the tendency of adults (other than spouses) to head their own households or to share households. The aim is a measure of household complexity which can be computed with a minimum of demographic data, namely, data on number of households and on the population by age and sex. The procedure is similar to that of Coale for fertility measurement (Coale, 1969); it is a form of indirect standardization in which the actual number of households is related to the number that would exist if maximum age-sex-specific household headship rates were to apply. Various forms of this indirectly standardized measure show a correlation of better than 0.9 with directly standardized measures for a sample of 33 nations for which requisite data are available. The new measure promises to extend considerably the geographical and temporal range of comparable empirical measures of household complexity.
Foreign-Born Emigration from the United States: 1960 To 1970
Authors: Warren Robert , Peck Jennifer Marks
Published: March 2007

This paper presents estimates of emigration of foreign-born persons by age and sex for 1960 to 1970, based on 1960 and 1970 census counts of the foreign-born population, adjusted life table survival rates, and annual statistics on alien immigration published by the Immigration and Naturalization Service. The effects of nativity bias are discussed. It is estimated that approximately 1,140,000 foreign-born persons emigrated between 1960 and 1970, of which 663,000, or 58 percent, were women and 477,000 were men. Almost one-quarter of the foreign-born emigrants were women 25–44 years of age in 1970. About 175,000 foreign-born persons 65 years and over in 1970 emigrated during the decade. The most significant finding, that more than one million foreign-born persons left the United States between 1960 and 1970, has important implications for U.S. immigration policy and for net immigration data used to estimate the population of the United States.
The Sisters’ Riddle and the Importance of Variance when Guessing Demographic Rates from Kin Counts
Authors: Wachter Kenneth W.
Published: March 2007

Goldman (1978) has proposed a formula derived from stable population theory for estimating growth rates from certain counts of younger and older sisters in a population. Computer microsimulation outputs show extraordinarily large statistical errors for estimation when stable population assumptions are modified to allow for random variability such as would be encountered with field work on small populations. A derivation of Goldman’s formula on more interpretable lines than that in Goldman (1978) identifies a source of variance special to this particular formula so that the large statistical errors for this example need not count in general against the feasibility of estimating demographic rates from counts of kin.
Estimating the emigration rates of legal immigrants using administrative and survey data: The 1971 cohort of immigrants to the United States
Authors: Jasso Guillermina , Rosenzweig Mark R.
Published: March 2007

Based on administrative and survey data as well as data-based assumptions about the bounds on alien address reporting, this study provides estimates of the lower and upper bounds for the cumulative net emigration rates, by country and area of origin, of the FY1971 cohort of legal immigrants to the United States as of January 1979. The merged data indicate that the cumulative net emigration rate for the entire cohort could have been as high as 50 percent. Canadian emigration was probably between 51 and 55 percent. Emigration rates for legal immigrants from Central America, the Caribbean (excluding Cuba), and South America were at least as high as 50 percent, and could have been as high as 70 percent. Emigration rates for Koreans and Chinese could not have exceeded 22 percent over the same period.
Modelling the evolution of heterogeneity in residential mobility
Authors: Davies R. B. , Crouchley R. , Pickles A. R.
Published: March 2007

Migration probabilities are known to vary over the population (heterogeneity) and over time (nonstationarity). It is shown that if the heterogeneity is represented by an SB mixing distribution and the nonstationarity by a set of arbitrary logistic scaling functions, then not only may all sources of heterogeneity, including tastes, be modelled, but heterogeneity at different points in time may be readily compared. The model is calibrated using data previously published by Clark et al. (1977, 1979) for a sample of 1,176 older renters and is found to fit well. The-changing heterogeneity over the ten-year period of observation is represented graphically.
A specification of marital fertility by parents’ age, age atmarriage and marital duration
Authors: Mineau Geraldine P. , Trussell James
Published: March 2007

The positive association between wife’s age at marriage and fertility experienced at the older reproductive ages, cited in recent natural fertility literature, is explored using Mormon birth cohorts from 1840 to 1879. When this relationship is specified by husband’s age at marriage and marriage duration, the results indicate that older-aged husbands depress marital fertility only at higher marriage durations. The general decomposition of age-specific fertility utilizing both mother’s and father’s age is also considered. The results show that mother’s aging is the most important factor, while father’s aging has a moderately negative effect under a natural fertility regime.
The effect of piped water on early childhood mortality in Urban Brazil, 1970 to 1976
Authors: Merrick Thomas W.
Published: March 2007

The effects of access to piped water on the trends in child mortality and on differentials by income class are analyzed using data on surviving children and other variables in samples of urban mothers aged 20–29 in 1970 and 1976. Path analytic regression techniques are used to test a recursive model linking the supply and demand for piped water to selected household and community level variables, and to examine their joint effect on child mortality. The model’s estimated parameters for 1970 and 1976 are used to analyze changes in mortality between the two dates. Increased maternal education accounts for a larger share of the mortality decline than any other single factor. Increased access to piped water also contributes to mortality decline, and such access helps to reduce the mortality differential between lower and higher income and education classes.
The increasing proportion of men with low earnings in the United States
Authors: Dooley Martin , Gottschalk Peter
Published: March 2007

Data from the 1967 through 1978 Current Population Surveys of the U.S. Bureau of the Census are used to analyze the proportion of men with annual and weekly earnings below a fixed low earnings threshold. Logit analysis is used to assess the impact of the level of education, experience, cyclical conditions, and cohort size on the proportion of low earners within education-experience categories. Particular interest is paid to the influence of the labor market entry of the baby boom. The evidence indicates that, after controlling for the independent variables, the proportion of adult males with low annual and weekly earnings has been growing substantially except among the most highly educated.
Premarital socioeconomic roles and the timing of family formation: A comparative study of five Asian societies
Authors: Hirschman Charles
Published: March 2007

The impact of female socioeconomic activities on cumulative fertility is a product of a series of life cycle stages, including the initiation of marriage and the timing of subsequent births. In the present paper, the effects of premarital socioeconomic roles on the first stages of family formation—the timing of marriage and the interval between marriage and first birth—are analyzed. Modern socioeconomic roles, especially educational attainment, lead to a postponement of marriage, and thereby age at first birth. However, the same variables tend to have a counterbalancing effect by reducing the interval from marriage to the first birth.
Childbearing and family in remarriage
Authors: Griffith Janet D. , Koo Helen P. , Suchindran C. M.
Published: March 2007

Proportional hazards models are used to test hypotheses about the effect of women’s prior childbearing on the probability of having a birth in remarriage and to analyze the effects of other factors. Results indicate that the number of children at the time of remarriage has no effect on childbearing probabilities, but the age of the youngest child has a significant effect. These findings support the view that having a child is important to confirm the marriage, but that individual and family life course factors also affect the decision to have a child in a remarriage.
Can spouses be trusted? A look at husband/wife proxy reports
Authors: Williams Richard , Thomson Elizabeth
Published: March 2007

This paper examines biases that may occur when models of couple behavior are estimated using one partner’s report of own and of spouse’s desired family size rather than independent reports obtained from both partners. When estimates of random measurement error are incorporated in a model of couple fertility expectations, proxy reports are valid indicators of spouse desires. In particular, there is little evidence that proxy reports are affected by systematic errors arising from projection of own beliefs onto the spouse. For desired family size, random measurement error in both proxy and self reports is of far greater concern than is systematic error.
Individual and couple intentions for more children: A research note
Authors: Morgan S. Philip
Published: March 2007

The question, “Do you and your husband intend to have a (another) child?” has become standard on fertility surveys. It is almost always asked of the wife, but is treated as the couple’s joint intention. How reasonable is such an assumption? Do husbands’ and wives’ reports of couple intent correspond closely? Do spouses know the fertility wishes of their partners? Do they take these wishes into account when reporting couple intent? Analysis of a sample of fecund, white, urban U.S. couples shows each question answered affirmatively. Reports from either spouse appear to be good, although admittedly imperfect, indicators of couple intent.
A Note on Racial Differences in the Effect of Female Economic Opportunity on Marriage Rates
Authors: White Lynn K.
Published: March 2007

The previously observed aggregate relationship between marriage rates and female work opportunities is not found among black Americans. Alternative definitions of family formation which take illegitimacy into consideration are explored and also found to be unrelated to black females’ economic opportunities. Although some of the difference may be attributed to measurement error, the significant disparity between the two populations probably reflects substantive differences.