bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Static and Dynamic Formulation of a Symmetrically Laminated Beam Finite Element for a Microcomputer
Authors: Chen Alex T. , Yang T.Y.
Published: March 2007

A formulation, an efficient solution procedure, a microcomputer program, and a graphics routine for an anisotropic symmetrically laminated beam finite element in cluding the effect of shear deformation is introduced. The emphasis of the formulation and solution procedure is for simplicity, efficiency, and easy implementation on microcomputers. The element possesses six d.o.f.'s at each of the two nodes: trans verse deflection and slope due to bending and shear, respectively, and a twisting angle and its derivative with respect to the beam axis. The formulation, solution procedure, and the program have been evaluated by performing a systematic choice of examples; whenever possible, the present solutions are compared with alternative existing solu tions.
Load-Deformation Behavior of Composite Cylinders with Integrally-Formed Braided and with Machined Circular Holes
Authors: Brookstein David S. , Tsiang Tseng-Hua
Published: March 2007

The load-deformation behavior of braided ±45-deg graphite/epoxy cylinders with integrally-formed braided and machined holes has been investigated. Axial tension or compression was applied to the cylinders via pairs of diametrically-opposed holes at the mid-length of the specimens. Pin-joint bearing tests were conducted on another set of specimens. Strains were measured around the hole and at a range of locations along the cylinder length and circumference. The strain concentration effects and failure modes are illustrated and discussed. Integrally-formed braided holes are seen to provide an in creased joint bearing strength compared with machined holes in the composite materials studied.
Tensile Fracture of Laminates with Cracks
Authors: Aronsson Carl-Gustaf , Backlund Jan
Published: March 2007

In this paper a method, called the Damage Zone Model (DZM), is used for predicting strength of composites with through-the-thickness cracks. The DZM is based on the two fundamental parameters unnotched tensile strength (σ0) and apparent fracture energy (G*c). The damage zone, developed at a notch in the composite, is modelled as a crack with cohesive forces acting on the crack surfaces. Redistribution of stresses and change in stiffness is accounted for in the model. For comparison, strengths are also calculated by semi-empirical methods such as the inherent flaw and the point stress criteria.

Experimental results for three point bend (TPB), single edge notch (SEN) and compact tension (CT) quasi-isotropic carbon/epoxy specimens are presented. Some results for specimens made from randomly oriented short glass fiber/polyester specimens are also discussed. The damage zone model is shown to accurately predict fracture load, load- deformation behaviour and damage zone sizes in these types of laminates.
Effect of Fiber and Matrix Maximum Strain on the Energy Absorption of Composite Materials
Authors: Farley Gary L.
Published: March 2007

Static crushing tests were conducted on graphite composite tubes to examine the in fluence of fiber and matrix maximum strain at failure on the energy absorption capability of graphite reinforced composite material. Fiber and matrix maximum strain at failure were determined to significantly effect energy absorption. The higher strain at failure composite material system, AS-4/5245, exhibited superior energy absorption capability compared to AS-4/934, T300/5245 or T300/934 composite material. Results of this in vestigation suggest that to achieve maximum energy from a composite material a matrix material that has a higher strain at failure than the fiber reinforcement should be used.
Failure of Carbon/Epoxy Lamina Under Combined Stress
Authors: Swanson S.R. , Messick M.J. , Tian Z.
Published: March 2007

It is well known that matrix failure in carbon/epoxy composites is influenced by multiaxial states of stress. However most of the experimental work to measure this inter action has not focused exclusively on matrix failure, and a general multiaxial stress criterion for matrix failure has not been established. To examine this question experimen tally we have carried out a series of tests involving torsional shear combined with axial tension or compression of unidirectional hoop wound cylinders, using AS4/55A carbon/ epoxy lamina. The matrix failure stresses are seen to be well correlated with the Tsai-Wu quadratic polynomial. There is also a strong interaction between the strains at failure, with small amounts of transverse tension giving a significant reduction in the shear strain at fail ure. The effect of σ2 on the nonlinear shear stress-strain curves is also presented.
Modelling Clamp-Up Effects in Composite Bolted Joints
Authors: Smith P.A. , Ashby M.F. , Pascoe K.J.
Published: March 2007

A simple three-dimensional approach is presented for predicting bearing stress at failure onset in a composite bolted joint. The approach allows explicitly for the load carried as a result of friction between the washers and the laminate. Failure criteria are developed for different failure modes as functions of bolt clamp-up and then the predictions of the model are compared with experimental data. A parametric study shows the effects on joint per formance of the coefficient of friction between the washers and the laminate, washer size and the properties of the laps in the joint.
Laminated Composites Containing an Elliptical Opening. I. Approximate Stress Analyses and Fracture Models
Authors: Tan S.C.
Published: March 2007

Approximate stress analyses are presented for orthotropic composite laminates contain ing an elliptical opening under uniaxial normal loads. Examining by the use of exact elasti city solution shows that these approximate solutions have excellent accuracy. Utilizing these solutions, the point stress fracture criterion and the average stress fracture criterion are generalized for the strength prediction of fiber-reinforced composite laminates contain ing an elliptical opening. Comparisons show that these models have good correlation with experimental data.
Relaxation-Controlled Cyclic Delamination Growth in Advanced Thermoset and Thermoplastic Composites at Elevated Temperature
Authors: Newaz Golam M. , Mall S.
Published: March 2007

In this investigation, cyclic Mode I delamination growth characteristics of unidirectional carbon/epoxy and carbon/polyetheretherketone (PEEK) composites at an elevated temper ature (200°F) were studied. The cyclic delamination growth behavior of the composites was found to be significantly different than their known response at room temperature under load-controlled condition. For both the composites, the elevated temperature response was found to be dominated by process zone formation and growth ahead of the delamination crack. The elevated temperature delamination growth behavior in these ad vanced composites was shown to be best described by a relaxation-controlled process zone growth model.
Blister Formation on Graphite/Polymer Composites Galvanically Coupled with Steel in Seawater
Authors: Tucker Wayne C. , Brown Richard
Published: March 2007

A graphite/polymer composite material was directly coupled with mild steel and im mersed in natural seawater for intervals up to three months. After three weeks, blister for mation was evident in the composite material. The exact cause of blister formation and the nature of the blisters is undetermined at this time, although some initial mechanisms are reviewed. It is evident that the corrosion process plays a major role in the formation of blisters.
A Simple Flow Rule for Characterizing Nonlinear Behavior of Fiber Composites
Authors: Sun C.T. , Chen J.L.
Published: March 2007

A one-parameter flow rule for orthotropic plasticity was developed to describe nonlinear behavior of fiber composites. Since most fiber composites exhibit in significant plasticity in the longitudinal direction, a plastic potential containing a single parameter was found adequate. Effective stress and plastic strain increment were intro duced to yield a universal nonlinear stress-strain relationship for the orthotropic com posite. This plasticity model was evaluated using experimental results of a boron/ aluminum and a graphite/epoxy composite.
Mechanical Characterization of SCS-6/Ti-6-4 Metal Matrix Composite
Authors: Sun C.T. , Chen J.L. , Sha G.T. , Koop W.E.
Published: March 2007

Off-axis tension tests were performed on SCS-6/Ti-6-4 metal matrix com posite. A one-parameter plasticity model was used to characterize the elastic-plastic prop erties. In addition, a micromechanical model was developed assuming elastic fiber and elastic-plastic matrix properties. This model was employed to relate the apparent yielding with the fiber/matrix separation in the MMC. From the micromechanical model, the fiber/matrix interfacial bond strength was estimated, and with the aid of a damage model, the nonlinear off-axis stress-strain curves were accurately predicted.
Estimation of Thermal Properties in Carbon/Epoxy Composite Materials during Curing
Authors: Scott Elaine P. , Beck James V.
Published: March 2007

A new procedure for the transient estimation of the thermal properties of thermoset composite materials during curing is presented. This estimation procedure in volves the minimization of a least squares function composed of calculated and measured transient temperatures in which the calculated temperatures are determined numerically using finite differences. An experimental design is presented in which the relationships between the thermal properties and both temperature and degree of cure can be deter mined. The estimation procedure is demonstrated using hypothethical data obtained from a simulation of the experimental design. The estimated thermal properties using this simulated data were in excellent agreement with the thermal properties used to generate this data.
Micro-Deformations in C3000/PMR15 Woven Composite
Authors: Mirzadeh Farshad , Reifsnider Kenneth L.
Published: March 2007

An experimental-computational investigation was undertaken to study the behavior of graphite fiber bundles and their influence on each other in C3000/PMR15 woven composite material subjected to compressive loading. Moire interferometry per formed on the edge of a [0]22 laminate showed good correlation of strain distributions with the results obtained from finite element analysis of a ply surrounded with homogeneous material having the smeared properties of the laminate. Furthermore, Moire results clearly revealed the great influence of the fiber bundles on each other, although such influ ences could not be observed in a simple finite element analysis.
High Temperature Thermomechanical Behavior of Carbon-Phenolic and Carbon-Carbon Composites, I. Analysis
Authors: Mcmanus Hugh L.N. , Springer George S.
Published: March 2007

The high temperature behavior of carbon-phenolic and carbon-carbon composites was investigated. Models were developed which describe the thermal and me chanical responses of such composites when rapidly heated to high temperatures. On the basis of the models, a computer code was written that provides the temperature and pressure distributions, vapor and volatile formation rates, amount of char, stress and strain, and damage in carbon-phenolic and carbon-carbon plates.
Thermoviscoelastic Analysis of Residual Stresses and Warpage in Composite Laminates
Authors: Wang T.-M. , Daniel I.M. , Gotro J.T.
Published: March 2007

Linear thermoviscoelastic lamination theory was used to determine resid ual stresses and warpage in multidirectional woven-glass/epoxy laminates. The single "unidirectional" layer of the material was characterized by means of an accelerated proce dure. The material was assumed to be thermorheologically simple and the time-tempera ture superposition principle (TTSP) was used to obtain "master curves" for the viscoelastic properties.

A numerical procedure was developed for determination of residual stresses and warp age, taking into consideration the irreversible polymerization shrinkage and boundary conditions during curing. Warpage was measured experimentally for [06/906] and [011/30] laminates using the projection moire method and results were in good agreement with the analytical prediction.
A Numerical Simulation of the Effects of Volume Fraction, Creep and Thermal Cycling on the Behavior of Fibrous Metal-Matrix Composites
Authors: Yeh Nan-Ming , Krempl Erhard
Published: March 2007

A previously derived cyclic neutral thermoviscoplasticity theory for fi brous metal-matrix composites (Yeh and Krempl [1]), which combines the vanishing fiber diameter (VFD) model with the thermoviscoplasticity theory based on overstress (TVBO) is specialized for transversely isotropic, thermoelastic fibers and an isotropic, thermovis coplastic matrix. Numerical experiments are used to illustrate the predictive capability of the theory. Simulations include the influence of volume fraction on the monotonic and cyclic loading behavior in the fiber and transverse directions with creep holds for B/A1 and B/Ti unidirectional composites and thermal cycling of B/A1. The three-dimensional theory permits the calculation of the actual Poisson's ratio in the tests. The results compare favor ably with sparsely available experimental results.
Analytical Modeling of Creep Behavior of Short Fiber Reinforced Ceramic Matrix Composites
Authors: Yuan Ruo Wang  , Chou Tsu-Wei
Published: March 2007

This paper studies the high-temperature creep behavior of short-fiber- reinforced ceramic matrix composites. A unidirectional short-fiber composite model under off-axis tension is established and analyzed using a multiaxial creep constitutive relation and an advanced shear-lag method. Both the fiber and matrix are capable of carry ing axial and shear loads, and the fibers also creep at elevated temperatures. Power law be havior is assumed for the fiber and matrix creep constitutive relations under uniaxial load ing. The stress distributions in the fiber and matrix, and the composite creep rate as functions of applied stress have been determined. Parametric studies have been performed for the effects of fiber volume fraction and fiber/matrix interface sliding factor on compos ite creep rate.
Fracture of Delaminated Unidirectional Composite Beams
Authors: Shi Y.B. , Hull D.
Published: March 2007

From optical microscopy and thermal deply characterizations, impact damage formation has been inferred as a process of delamination propagation initiated by transverse cracks. The delamination propagation is modelled by a cracked beam configura tion with the aim of identifying the governing fracture properties. Analysis of the energy release rate of a general beam geometry based on lamination theory is given. Mode II frac ture tests on T300/914C unidirectional composites were performed to support the theoretical prediction with fracture toughness result by ENF tests as a reference. Analysis and test results indicate that in a cracked unidirectional composite beam fracture is a mode II event irrespective of the position of the delamination in the beam thickness, and the energy release rate reaches a maximum when the crack is located at the mid-plane of the beam.
Deformations in Composite Shells of Revolution under Axisymmetric and Thermal Loads
Authors: Tutuncu Naki , Winckler Steve J.
Published: March 2007

Numerous papers have been published dealing with stresses and deforma tions in composite cylinders. However, none of them included thermoelastic analysis and spherical geometry. In the present paper, deformations in balanced laminated shells of rev olution subjected to internal pressure and thermal loads were studied using the membrane theory. The results for a special case of spherical shells show that membrane theory is sufficient in predicting the deformed shapes of laminated shells with identical axial and transverse stiffnesses, which are common in many engineering applications. Deformations in laminates with different axial and transverse stiffnesses become unbounded at the poles which indicate that, for such class of laminates, the stress buildup at the tip point cannot be balanced by membrane forces alone.
The Effects of Fastener Hole Defects
Authors: Andrews Scot D. , Ochoa Ozden O. , Owens Steve D.
Published: March 2007

The influence of drilling-induced defects, such as delamination, on the fa tigue life of a pin bearing joint in a toughened carbon epoxy system was investigated. In a pin bearing joint, the parameters of interest are the bearing stress and the pin position or tolerance. Tension bearing by-pass tests were conducted on coupons under ambient and elevated temperature wet conditions. Specimens were tested in a bearing tension frame to static failure in order to measure the failure load and to calculate pin bearing stress. From static test results, a fatigue load was selected as 66% of the static pin bearing failure load. Coupons were then tested under pin bearing fatigue loading at ambient and elevated tem perature wet conditions. Two-dimensional finite element models were used to simulate the pin and tension loads applied to the coupons. These models simulated the stress distribu tion around the loaded pin. The loads in the finite element models represented the failure load incurred in the static pin bearing tests as well as the maximum load during a selected cycle of the pin bearing fatigue tests. Experimental results showed the pin movement to vary with respect to delamination diameter, specimen thickness, and configuration. Numerical results compared with the static failure levels and indicated the form of the delaminated regions. Results give an indication of the effects of environment and hole quality under pin bearing load. Large variations in drilling-induced damage tended to cause variations in the pin bearing response of like specimens.
Kink-Band Failure Analysis of Thick Composites in Compression
Authors: Camponeschi E.T. , Gillespie J.W. , Wilkins D.J.
Published: March 2007

This article describes an analysis of 6.4-25.4 mm (0.25-1.0 in.) thick composite laminates subjected to uniaxial compressive loading that experimentally showed a decrease in strength with increasing thickness. The analysis was performed to determine if the reduction in strength was an intrinsic thickness material effect or if it could be attributed to through-thickness restraint on the specimen caused by the test fix ture. The analysis was based on closed form solutions for the formation of kink-band fail ures in the presence of fibers misaligned with the principal axis of compression loading. The fiber misalignment was determined by a finite element analysis that accounted for the displacement of the laminate outer plies where the laminate exited the compression test fixture. The correlation between the experimental results and the theoretical analysis showed the compression strength of the AS4/3501-6 and S2/3501-6 laminates to be inde pendent of thickness and directly proportional to the through-thickness fixture restraint on through-thickness Poisson expansion. This theoretical and experimental comparison also demonstrated a strong correlation between fiber misalignment, its resulting shear stress state and the kink-band compression failure mechanism.
Axisymmetric Thermoelastic Response of a Composite Cylinder Containing an Annular Matrix Crack
Authors: Kaw Autar K. , Pagano Nicholas J.
Published: March 2007

An elasticity solution to the problem of an annular crack in a concentric cylinder under a remote uniform axial strain and constant temperature change is found. Stress intensity factors at the crack tips and the stresses at the interface are studied to de termine the nature of the crack growth in the composite. These parameters are studied as a function of the elastic moduli and the thermal expansion coefficients of the constituents, the fiber volume ratio, crack geometry, and interface properties.
Measurements of Strain and Temperature with Embedded Intrinsic Fabry-Perot Optical Fiber Sensors
Authors: Kim Ki-Soo , Ismail Youssef , Springer George S.
Published: March 2007

The use of embedded intrinsic Fabry-Perot sensors in measuring strains and temperature changes was explored. Tests were performed with intrinsic Fabry-Perot sensors embedded in plates made of Fiberite T300/976 graphite-epoxy and of Fiberite APC2-PEEK graphite thermoplastic unidirectional tapes. The plates were also in strumented with thermocouples and strain gauges. The plates were subjected either to three point bending at room temperature, or to a uniform temperature change without an applied external stress. The temperatures and strains measured by the Fabry-Perot sensors agreed well with the thermocouple and strain gauge data, showing that with a single sensor and a single, constant wavelength light source, either the axial strain component or the temperature change can be measured.
Linking Person Perception to Behavior Intention Across Cultures
Authors: Bond Michael H. , Forgas Joseph P.
Published: March 2007

This research addressed two questions: (1) What are the potentially universal links between the dimensions of person perception and those of behavior intention, and (2) what dimensions of person perception are most salient in collectivist as opposed to individualistic cultures? Male subjects from Hong Kong and Australia read a description of a target person (TP) varying across the universal dimensions of extroversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, and emotional stability. They then indicated their behavior intentions toward that TP. Across both cultures, TP conscientiousness was linked to intentions of trust and TP extroversion and agreeableness to intentions of association. As predicted from the dynamics of cultural collectivism, the Chinese were more responsive than the Australians to TP conscientiousness in forming trust intentions and to TP agreeableness in forming associative intentions.
Intercultural Encounters
Authors: Barnlund Dean C. , Araki Shoko
Published: March 2007

Two types of inquiry were used to explore the norms governing the management of compliments in Japan and the United States. The first, a semistructured interview, revealed great differences in the frequency of complimenting behavior and in the hierarchy of attributes praised. Incidents from these interviews were used to construct a Complimentary Mode Questionnaire that was then administered to larger samples of Japanese and Americans. The resulting data indicated there were highly significant differences in the reported praising behavior of members of the two cultures. These differences appeared with regard to the status of communicative partners and with regard to the attributes admired. No sex differences were found. When the Japanese were expected to prefer more indirect forms of praise they also showed greater preference for many direct forms; when Americans were expected to prefer more direct forms of praise, they showed surprising preference for indirect forms. The relations of these patterns to other cultural variables and their implications for interaction between the two cultures are suggested.
Children's Gender Role Stereotypes
Authors: Albert Alexa A. , Porter Judith R.
Published: March 2007

Gender trait and gender role stereotypes of 759 U.S. and 452 South African children are compared. The effects of age, sex, socioreligious background, and mother's employment status are also examined both between and within country. South African children are found to sex-type the male role to a greater extent than their U.S. counterparts, although country does not affect children's images of the female gender role. An age/ sex interaction effect is observed both between and within country. Gender role stereotypes increase with age and children are more likely to sex-type same-sex figures. Within South Africa, children from liberal Christian and Jewish backgrounds have less rigid conceptions of the male and the female gender role than do conservative Christian children. Socioreligious background does not affect children's gender role attitudes in the United States. Mother's employment status is unrelated to children's sex-typing scores in both countries.
Androgyny
Authors: Ravinder Shashi
Published: March 2007

This article examines the sex role identity of college students in India and in Australia and empirically tests the validity of the prediction that androgyny is the product of educated, middle-class, Western societies. Results reveal that sex role transcendence, rather than androgyny, is the product of Western societies such as Australia. Androgyny, on the other hand, was found to be more predominant in certain traditional cultures, such as India, and was particularly predominant among Indian males. These findings have important implications not only for sex role theory but also for cross-cultural investigations of sex role identity.
Fighting for Survival
Authors: Goemans H. E.
Published: March 2007

This article examines how the postdefeat fate of leaders of different regimes affects their incentives to end or continue a losing war and how the outcome of war interacts with regime type to affect the leaders' postwar fate. Three regime types—democracies, dictatorships, and mixed regimes—and three fates—staying in power, losing power, and losing power with additional punishment in the form of exile, imprisonment, or death—are distinguished. Only leaders of mixed regimes are likely to lose power and suffer additional punishment whether they lose a war moderately or disastrously. Therefore, leaders of such losing mixed regimes have a disincentive to settle on moderately losing terms; they prefer to continue war in a gamble for resurrection. As a result, wars with losing mixed regimes last longer and produce higher numbers of battle deaths for both sides than other wars.
Self-Interest or Altruism, What Difference?
Authors: Frohlich Norman
Published: March 2007

This paper discusses the difficulties involved in relaxing the self-interest assumption as it is traditionally used in conjunction with the assumption of rationality. A formal model of altruistic behavior is developed and employed in the analysis of the problems of burden-sharing among rational allies. It is demonstrated that altruistic behavior among political actors is not, in general, sufficient to remove all areas of contention between the actors although the scope of disagreement is shown to be narrowed by altruistic behavior. Additional applications of the model of non-self-interested behavior are presented and suggested.
Imperialism as a Level of Analysis in Correlates-of-War Research
Authors: Köhler Gernot
Published: March 2007

It is argued that correlates-of-war research could benefit from paying more attention to imperialism. Imperialism can be thought of as a level of analysis co-equal to the individual, national, global, and other analytic levels. The imperial level of analysis has implications for concept formation, selection of explanatory variables, and the formulation of hypotheses in correlates-of-war research and has, therefore, important implications for the development of a theory of war and peace. The argument is buttressed by an empirical investigation which shows that imperial leader nations become more peaceful after they lose their imperial system. The empirical part of this investigation thus reinforces the contention that correlates-of-war research at the imperial level is meaningful and worthwhile.
Measuring Systemic Polarity
Authors: Bueno de Mesquita Bruce
Published: March 2007

Indicators of the tightness and discreteness of poles in the international system, as well as of the distribution of capabilities and interaction opportunities among poles, are developed. With alliance bonds as the focus, scores for each indicator are presented for each year of the past century and a half, and several prevalent theories linking polarity to war are tested. The amount of major power war begun during five-year periods is found to be unrelated to the tightness of the poles, although increases in tightness are substantially associated with large amounts of war. Bipolar systems are found to experience less war than multipolar systems, with increases in the number of clusters being especially strongly associated with the amount of major power war during subsequent five-year periods. Neither changes in the discreteness nor the distribution of capabilities among the poles has any appreciable effect on the amount of major power war.
Bloc Voting on the International Court of Justice
Authors: Hensley Thomas R.
Published: March 2007

The results of a Rice-Beyle cluster bloc analysis of votes in the International Court of Justice reveal several two- and three-judge blocs, but these blocs do not conform closely to the blocs which would be expected on the basis of the political alignments or common cultural patterns of the judges' countries. These results are reinforced by the analysis of predetermined blocs based upon the political alignments and common legal systems of the judges' countries, although the Soviet and Polish judges do show distinctive voting patterns from the rest of the Court. A conceptual framework of the judicial decision making process is then introduced to help explain the results, leading to the conclusions that while social background and personal and policy attitudes do not seem to be major factors in explaining judicial behavior of the judges, the factor of judicial role perceptions, stemming primarily from professional traming and associations, may be of great significance.
The Peace Ritual and Israeli Images of Social Order
Authors: Lewis Arnold
Published: March 2007

In this article, a series of events associated with President Sadat's pilgrimage to Jerusalem in November 1977 have been organized in accordance with anthropological theory on the ritual process. This perspective suggests that conflict and conflict resolution are processes of dialectical interaction between power relationships and symbolic actions. President Sadat's visit to Jerusalem stands as a unique symbolic initiative in the Arab-Israeli conflict. In this instance, a powerful symbolic alternative to continued warfare was raised before the Israeli public. The failure of the peace ritual to translate immediately into an amiable structure of relationships between Israel and Egypt provoked many Israelis to reexamine their perceptions of social order in the Middle East. This process, expressed in the struggles of the peace movements, was a central feature of the Israeli political culture in the months following the peace ritual. Through these activities, a shift occurred in the constellation of Israeli opinions regarding Israeli-Egyptian relations, thus helping to foster compromise and agreement on a new framework of relations between Israel and Egypt at the Camp David summit of September 1978.
Crisis Management
Authors: Gilbert Arthur N. , Lauren Paul Gordon
Published: March 2007

This article provides an assessment and critique of the current state of crisis management literature with special emphasis on what historical case studies reveal about the validity of this approach to world politics. After a review of the literature, which notes the benefits from a variety of approaches to the study of crisis, the authors examine the stated and unstated assumptions about the need for dealing with crises and the means by which this might best be accomplished. The authors offer some advice on how to improve studies in this area by recognizing the variety of crisis situations in history, the importance of individual people and thier domestic context, and the need for a taxonomy of crises.
Sources of Japanese University Conflict
Authors: Marsh Robert M.
Published: March 2007

Campus protest occurred all over the world in the 1960s. This study follows earlier attempts to explain not student protest in general, but why protest severity varied among colleges and universities. Using published data on nineteen different forms of conflict, the overall amount of conflict in each of Japan's four-year colleges and universities during the 1968-1969 period is measured by a scale of conflict severity. This dependent variable is then regressed on two sets of explanatory variables—the protest issues on each campus and the variable organizational characteristics of the schools themselves. The Japanese findings largely replicate earlier American observations: the severity of campus conflict was greatest in large, structurally complex (differentiated) and high-quality schools. The internal differentiation of the university and other structural characteristics explain more of the variance than do the issues specific to given campuses. The causal importance of structural differentiation is traced to the “antistructure” ideology of the radical student organizations.
Resolve, Capabilities, and the Outcomes of Interstate Disputes, 1816-1976
Authors: Maoz Zeev
Published: March 2007

This study attempts to explain the recurring empirical observation that initiators of interstate disputes, both those that escalated into wars and those that ended otherwise, are disproportionately likely to win. Two competing models are developed: (1) The capability model argues that the outcome of the dispute is a function of the balance of capabilities among the protagonists and that the strongest prevails. (2) The resolve model argues that dispute outcomes are determined by the balance of motivation and resolve among the protagonists; that is, the actor with the highest level of resolve is likely to win. A random sample of 164 disputes is used to test these two models. The findings suggest that capabilities are unrelated to dispute outcomes, whereas resolve variables are consistently related to dispute outcomes. The implications for conflict management and conflict escalation are discussed.
Expecting Continued Play in Prisoner's Dilemma Games
Authors: Murnighan J. Keith , Roth Alvin E.
Published: March 2007

Several models of prisoner's dilemma interactions were tested in a series of twelve games whose termination point was determined probabilistically. A new model was introduced to discriminate among equilibrium and nonequilibrium situations on the basis of a player's expected benefits or losses for cooperating. The experiment included twelve payoff matrices, three probabilities for continuing, two opponent strategies, and the player's sex as independent variables. Results showed that both the game payoffs and the probability that the game would continue interacted to affect the rates of cooperation observed, and that the equilibrium model predicted this outcome most accurately. While the predictions of each of the models were supported, the equilibrium models appeared to be superior to the others. The discussion highlights the importance of considering the likelihood of a game terminating as a major determinant of the cooperation that can be expected in mixed—motive interactions.
Economic Issues and Methodology in Arms Race Analysis
Authors: Leidy Michael P. , Staiger Robert W.
Published: March 2007

This article reviews the recent contributions of economic analysis to the literature concerned with the process of national arms accumulation and the potential for arms control and disarmament. The role of formal model building as an aid to understanding the armament process is discussed. The existing economic literature in this area is organized and reviewed on the basis of the different modeling approaches that have been explored to date. Finally, strands of economic thought that have not yet been introduced into the arms race literature are explored, with the purpose of suggesting further applications of the economic approach to this important area of analysis.
Mediation of Prisoners' Dilemma Conflicts and the Importance of the Cooperation Threshold
Authors: Levy Marc A.
Published: March 2007

The dynamics of moving a deadlocked prisoners' dilemma conflict toward a cooperative resolution are examined. The effects of recalcitrant parties are elaborated by developing the concepts of the imposed deadlock game and the cooperation threshold. The threshold is the degree of certainty of achieving a cooperative solution (the R payoff) necessary to induce cooperation. It is lowered (making cooperation more likely) when either the benefits from cooperating or the costs of holding out increase. This concept is used to explain how agreement can be reached on seemingly nonnegotiable issues. In U.S. efforts to mediate the Numibia conflict, both Carter and Reagan failed to deal effectively with South Africa's high cooperation threshold. The Reagan administration also added elements of simultaneous play by introducing linkage, further lessening cooperative prospects. Cooperation may nevertheless have become more likely when South Africa began pursuing a different, more certain, cooperative goal. However, inappropriate mediation and unfavorable events made a final agreement impossible.
Stages, Turning Points, and Crises
Authors: Druckman Daniel
Published: March 2007

A framework for the analysis of processes of international negotiations is described. It construes the process as an unfolding set of stages in which turning points and crises mark passage from one stage to another. This sequence is driven by certain factors that influence negotiator activities and rhetoric. The framework is applied to the bilateral negotiations between Spain and the United States over military base rights (1975-1976). A pattern of influences and events is shown to resemble a balancing process, alternating between an intensifying influence (lack of coordination within a delegation) and a moderating influence (high-level meetings to produce a framework agreement) on the conflict. Content analysis of the discussions suggests an indicator of forthcoming impasses: A large difference between the delegations in hard or soft behavior preceded an impasse in the next round. This pattern of responsiveness has been observed in other negotiating contexts and is referred to as “threshold-adjustment.” Implications of these findings for a general model of negotiating behavior are discussed.
Winding Down if Preemption or Escalation Occurs
Authors: Brams Steven J. , Kilgour D. Marc
Published: March 2007

Game-theoretic models of deterrence and escalation, based on Chicken and Prisoners' Dilemma, are developed in which two players can initially choose any level of preemption in a crisis (Deterrence Game) or escalation in an arms race (Deescalation Game). The greater this level, the more likely an opponent will interpret this choice as a noncooperative action and retaliate. Given that both players make noncooperative choices in these games—either initially or in retaliation—a probability of winding down is postulated whereby the playes can escape either the mutually worst outcome in the Deterrence Game (which becomes the Winding-Down Game) or the mutually next-worst outcome in the Deescalation Game (which becomes the Arms-Reduction Game). In both games, as the probability of winding down increases, the threat of retaliation must also increase—and at an increasing rate—to preserve the stability of mutual deterrence and mutual deescalation. Implications of these findings, especially for encouraging mutual cooperation between the superpowers, via both deterrence and defense (“Star Wars”), are discussed.
They Dance Alone
Authors: Davis David R. , Ward Michael D.
Published: March 2007

This study examines the dynamics driving domestic political violence in Chile from 1966 to the present, with special emphasis on the growing numbers of dead and disappeared. Two basic structues, both self-reinforcing, are examiend from the perspective of the emergence of a Chilean garrison state. The first of these encompasses the domestic political and economic context, dealing primarily with antiregime conflict and the response it engages from the government. The second structure examines the strong linkage between the foreign policy of Chile and its internal domestic conflict nexus. Empirical results suggest the paralysis of Chilean policy in a mode of violent political repression that produces no internal reduction in domestic conflict and at the same time, stimulates the extent and scope of Chilean foreign policy conflicts with other nations.
Community Mediation in the People's Republic of China
Authors: Wall James A. , Blum Michael
Published: March 2007

This study investigated the mediations of ninety-seven community mediators in the People's Republic of China. The mediators' reports on two mediations each — one successful and one unsuccessful — indicated the frequency with which they use twenty-seven mediation techniques. In addition, their information revealed the strategies — assist, procedural, educate, and external reliance — they employ in their mediations. It was found that Chinese mediators utilize the same techniques and strategies in successful versus nonsuccessful mediations; yet, their techniques and strategies differ in couple (husband-wife) as opposed to noncouple disputes.
The Nonlinear Dynamics of International Conflict
Authors: Wolfson Murray , Puri Anil , Martelli Mario
Published: March 2007

A nonlinear dynamic model is presented that reconciles balance-of-power and preponderance-of-power theories of international conflict in terms of the interaction of economic and political constraints. It is shown that the apparent paradox and complexity of conflict trajectories arise as much from the nonlinear nature of the system as from the multiplicity of causes. Convergent, explosive, oscillating, and chaotic regimes arise from the model depending on the choice of parameters.
Political Rhetoric of Leaders under Stress in the Gulf Crisis
Authors: Wallace Michael D. , Suedfeld Peter , Thachuk Kimberley
Published: March 2007

The Gulf War and the crisis that led up to it provide an extremely useful laboratory for social scientists to test their hypotheses about crisis behavior. In this study the authors measure a structural attribute of leaders' utterances—their integrative complexity—before, during, and after the crisis and war to determine its association with behavior. They discovered that changes in integrative complexity provided a good early warning indicator of the Iraqi attack on Kuwait, and that later changes were closely associated with the fortunes of war for the Coalition and Iraqi forces. It was also found that “dovish” leaders showed higher levels of complexity than “hawkish” ones, that supreme commanders' utterances were less complex than those of their subordinates, and that complexity was not associated with region, language, or religion. Overall, the findings strongly confirm the general proposistion that reductions in the integrative complexity of leaders' communications provide a useful indicator of the presence of disruptive stress during a crisis.
Game Theory and the Politics of the Global Commons
Authors: Ward Hugh
Published: March 2007

I assume that politicians maximize domestic political support subject to a political feasibility constraint set by the relationship between environmental quality and some politically desirable economic performance indicator. Because pollution flows across national frontiers, the political feasibility frontier depends on other nations' environmental policies. Depending on the nature of domestic political pressures and the environmental spillovers between the countries, various game structures are possible. Knowledge of the structure of the game is helpful when addressing policy issues and the question of how to design international institutions in order to overcome international environmental collective action problems.
Symmetry and Reciprocity in South Africa's Foreign Policy
Authors: van Wyk Koos , Radloff Sarah
Published: March 2007

This is a replication of Richardson, Kegley, and Agnew's cross-national study focusing on symmetry and reciprocity as characteristics of dyadic foreign policy behavior. Our study applied similar scaling (WEIS) and statistical techniques to analyze the dyadic relations of a single country, South Africa. Both studies produced much in common, that is, the degree of quantitative symmetry in the most active dyads is rather evenly spread from high to low; and affective compatibility is very common with respect to the direction (cooperation or conflictive) of bilateral foreign policy behavior. However, intensity of affect is very seldom reciprocal. The differences in the two studies were that symmetry and reciprocity were more significantly related for the single-country dyads than those of the cross-national study; and nonreciprocal affective intensity characterizes cooperative relations more generally than it does conflictive relations in the cross-national study. For South African dyads this was not the case.
Intransigence in Negotiations
Authors: Brams Steven J. , Doherty Ann E.
Published: March 2007

Three-party negotiations are analyzed in which the players are able not only to rank alternatives but also have a preference for impasse. In a dynamic model, players progressively invoke fallback positions to try to prevent inferior outcomes from being implemented in a game of incomplete information. A player's intransigence, or unwillingness to retreat to fallback positions, generally works to his or her advantage. Greater size—or, equivalently, an enhanced ability to effect preferred outcomes—also helps, but intransigence is a potent force by itself. In fact, intransigence may prevail despite the fact that there is a so-called Condorcet alternative that could defeat it and all other alternatives. The analysis illuminates the rational basis of disagreement and why it develops in the manner it does. Extensions of the dynamic model are discussed, including making the preferences of the players for impasse endogenous.
Multilateral Cooperation in an Iterated Prisoner's Dilemma
Authors: Pahre Robert
Published: March 2007

There is a remarkable consensus among scholars of international relations that bilateral cooperation is easier to achieve than multilateral cooperation. This essay proposes a formal model to show that this is incorrect, because a multilateral agreement may achieve what an equivalent series of bilateral agreements cannot. The author explores formally several different enforcement mechanisms, suggesting that the argument is robust. Throughout the essay, the author uses examples from the Marshall Plan to illustrate the logic of this result. The argument has implications for other substantive topics, such as most-favored-nation clauses in trade agreements, the theory of hegemonic stability, analysis of the European Economic Community, the politics of linkage, and the study of multilateralist norms.
Who Takes Risks?
Authors: Kowert Paul A. , Hermann Margaret G.
Published: March 2007

National leaders confront risky decisions on a regular basis. Although leaders may differ widely in their tolerance for risk, students of foreign policymaking lack compelling explanations for these differences. One of the few attempts to grapple with this problem holds that decision makers accept risks to avoid losses but refuse to take risks to make comparable gains. This tendency, embodied in prospect theory, is experimentally robust but consistently fails to predict the behavior of one third or more of the subjects. To investigate the contribution of individual differences to risk taking, the authors administered three questionnaires assessing risk propensity and two personality inventories (the Myers-Briggs Type Indicator and the Revised NEO Personality Inventory) to 126 subjects. The results identify strong personality predictors of generalized risk taking. Contrary to prospect theory, some people were especially willing to take risks to make gains, whereas others were particularly unlikely to take risks when facing potential losses. Statistical analyses lend support to a three-stage model of risk taking. The findings suggest that if students of international conflict want to understand risk taking, then they must consider not only how leaders frame conflicts but also the character of the leaders themselves.