Application of probabilistic risk assessment: Evaluating remedial alternatives at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site, Portland, Oregon, USA
Authors: Ruffle Betsy , Henderson James , Murphy-Hagan Clare , Kirkwood Gemma , Wolf Frederick , Edwards Deborah A 
Published: November 2017

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed to evaluate the range of potential baseline and postremedy health risks to fish consumers at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site (the “Site”). The analysis focused on risks of consuming fish resident to the Site containing polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), given that this exposure scenario and contaminant are the primary basis for US Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) selected remedy per the January 2017 Record of Decision (ROD). The PRA used probability distributions fit to the same data sets used in the deterministic baseline human health risk assessment (BHHRA) as well as recent sediment and fish tissue data to evaluate the range and likelihood of current baseline cancer risks and noncancer hazards for anglers. Areas of elevated PCBs in sediment were identified on the basis of a geospatial evaluation of the surface sediment data, and the ranges of risks and hazards associated with pre- and postremedy conditions were calculated. The analysis showed that less active remediation (targeted to areas with the highest concentrations) compared to the remedial alternative selected by USEPA in the ROD can achieve USEPA's interim risk management benchmarks (cancer risk of 10–4 and noncancer hazard index [HI] of 10) immediately postremediation for the vast majority of subsistence anglers that consume smallmouth bass (SMB) fillet tissue. In addition, the same targeted remedy achieves USEPA's long-term benchmarks (10–5 and HI of 1) for the majority of recreational anglers. Additional sediment remediation would result in negligible additional risk reduction due to the influence of background. The PRA approach applied here provides a simple but adaptive framework for analysis of risks and remedial options focused on variability in exposures. It can be updated and refined with new data to evaluate and reduce uncertainty, improve understanding of the Site and target populations, and foster informed remedial decision making. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:63–78. © 2017 The Authors. Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Environmental Toxicology & Chemistry (SETAC)

Key Points

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed to evaluate health risks for subsistence anglers who consume fish containing polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site, Portland, Oregon, USA. In addition to evaluating current baseline cancer risks and noncancer hazards, the PRA was combined with a geospatial analysis of recent sediment data to evaluate risk reduction achieved by remediation using a hill-topping approach that targeted elevated areas of PCBs. The majority of risk reduction and the US Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) interim goals of 10–4 and a hazard index of 10 can be achieved for the vast majority of subsistence anglers—the receptor group that drives the Site remedy—with significantly less active remediation than USEPA's selected alternative. Increased remediation results in negligible additional risk reduction due to background PCBs, which pose risks in excess of USEPA's long-term goals of 10–5 and a hazard index of 1, and continued fish consumption advisories will be necessary.