bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The effect of expander processing and extrusion on the nutritive value of peas for pigs
Authors: O’Doherty J. V. , Keady U.
Published: August 2016

Two experiments were conducted to investigate the effect of expander processing of food for growing and finishing pigs. Experiment 1 examined the effects of expander processing on the nutritive value of a cereal-based diet and a pea-based diet for pigs while experiment 2 determined the effects of extrusion and expansion of the peas component of the diet on the nutritive value. In experiment 1, growth performance, carcass characteristics (no. = 12) and nutrient digestibility (no. = 4) were determined in pigs offered individually food containing a cereal diet (T1), a complete cereal diet that had been expander processed (T2), a 400 g/kg peas diet (T3) or a complete 400 g/kg peas diet that had been expander processed (T4). The expanded diets were processed at 105°C for 5 s at 35 bar pressure. In experiment 2, productive performance and nutrient digestibility were determined in pigs (no. = 12) offered individually diets including a control cereal diet (no peas) (TT1), a 400 g/kg raw peas diet (TT2), a 400 g/kg expander processed peas diet (TT3) or a 400 g/kg extruded peas diet (TT4). The pea portions of the diets were extruded at 130°C for 30 s and expanded at 130°C for 10 s at 42 bar pressure. In experiment 1, the inclusion of peas in the diet reduced (P < 0·001) the digestibility of the organic matter (OM) (0·871 v. 0·893, s.e. 0·003), protein (0·867 v. 0·907, s.e. 0·004) and energy (0·857 v. 0·880, s.e. 0·003). Expansion had no effect on the nutrient digestibility of the diets, however, it did increase (P < 0·05) the digestible energy content of the cereal diet. The inclusion of peas in the diet reduced (P < 0·05) daily gain (0·929 v. 0·999, s.e. 0·024 kg/day) and increased (P < 0·001) food conversion ratio (FCR) (2·31 v. 2·16, s.e. 0·029) from 34 kg to slaughter. Expansion had no effect on daily gain or FCR. In experiment 2, OM digestibilities of 0·891, 0·872, 0·882 and 0·885 (s.e. 0·0042) (P < 0·01), protein digestibilities of 0·905, 0·879, 0·874 and 0·877 (s.e. 0·0069) (P < 0·001) and gross energy digestibilities of 0·875, 0·861, 0·870 and 0·875 (s.e. 0·005) (P < 0·05) were recorded for TT1 to TT4 respectively. Gains (kg/day) of 0·981, 0·927, 0·940, and 1·016 (s.e. 0·036) (P < 0·05) and FCR of 2·17, 2·32, 2·28 and 2·18 (s.e. 0·037) (P < 0·05) were recorded for TT1 to TT4 respectively. In conclusion, expansion had no effect on the nutritive value of food for pigs.
Comparison of voluntary food intake, apparent digestibility, digesta kinetics and digestive tract content in Manchega and Lacaune dairy sheep in late pregnancy and early and mid lactation
Authors: Molina E. , Ferret A. , Caja G. , Calsamiglia S. , Such X. , Gasa J.
Published: August 2016

Two experiments were carried out with pregnant (experiment 1) and lactating ewes (experiment 2), to compare dry-matter (DM) intake, and total tract apparent digestibility, digesta kinetics and weight of digestive tract contents of Lacaune and Manchega sheep, with the aim of explaining possible differences between the breeds in voluntary food intake. In experiment 1, 20 3-year-old single-bearing pregnant ewes, 10 Manchega and 10 Lacaune, were permanently housed for the last 10 weeks of pregnancy. The diet used consisted of lucerne hay, offeredad libitum, supplemented with 0·3 kg/day of concentrate. DM and digestible DM intake per kg M0·75were higher (P< 0·01) in Lacaune than in Manchega sheep. Breed did not affect total tract apparent digestibility, fractional rates of passage, transit time, total mean retention time, or weight of digestive tract contents. Changes in body weight and body condition score were similar between breeds. In contrast, Lacaune lambs tended (P= 0·09) to weigh less than Manchega lambs, suggesting genetic differences in the energy utilization between breeds in late pregnancy. Higher DM intake observed in Lacaune sheep may have been related to a higher energy demand for mammary development. In experiment 2, 32 3-year-old lactating multiparous ewes, 16 Manchega and 16 Lacaune, were permanently housed during the first 12 weeks of lactation. The experimental diet used was based on a mixture of maize silage and dehydrated lucerne (10: 1, fresh weight basis), offeredad libitum, and supplemented with 0·8 kg/day of concentrate. Milk, fat and protein yield as well as DM and digestible DM intake in Lacaune ewes was higher (P< 0·01) than in Manchega ewes. DM intake was constant in Lacaune sheep with advancing lactation, while in Manchega sheep DM intake decreased. Throughout this period Lacaune ewes lost 0·5 kg of body weight while Manchega gained 4·4 kg. Breed did not affect either apparent digestibility of DM, organic matter and neutral-detergent fibre, or fractional rates of passage, transit time and total mean retention time. The weight of total tract digestive contents was greater (P< 0·05) in Lacaune than in Manchega sheep, particularly in the reticulo-rumen. Results suggest that the scheme of selection in Lacaune dairy sheep has increased milk yield together with voluntary food intake, the latter being associated with an increase in the rumen fill capacity. The higher milk yield of Lacaune ewes cannot be attributed to the higher DM intake only; other factors, i.e. mobilization of fat reserves, are required to support this higher milk output.
Selection of sheep for response to Trichostrongylus colubriformis larvae: genetic parameters
Authors: Woolastont R. R. , Windon R. G.
Published: August 2016

Data were analysed from a long-term selection experiment with Merino sheep, based on immunological responsiveness to the intestinal nematode Trichostrongylus colubriformis. For the first 14 years of selection, the criterion was the mean of five fortnightly faecal worm-egg counts (FECs) of pen-housed lambs that were vaccinated with irradiated larvae then challenged with normal T. colubriformis larvae. For most of the lambs born in the subsequent 6 years, the selection criterion was the mean of three weekly FECs of grazing lambs following a secondary challenge with T. colubriformis larvae. Data from 2233 lambs were included in the analyses.

At the end of the experiment, the lines selected for high and low response to challenge differed by 2·3 to 2·9 phenotypic standard deviations. The heritability of average pen-tested FEC was 0·38 (s.e. 0·04), similar to that for average FEC after secondary field challenge (0·37, s.e. 007). Average FECs from the primary field challenge were less heritable (0·21, s.e. 006). Counts recorded on pen-tested animals at 3, 5, 7, 9 and 11 weeks after infection were all highly correlated genetically (estimates 0·93 to 0·99) and of similar heritability (0·33 to 0·39) with a non-significant tendency for later FECs to be more heritable. Phenotypic correlations were lower, ranging from 0·60 for counts 8 weeks apart, to 0·78 to 0·81 for adjacent samples 2 weeks apart. Single-record heritability estimates at 3, 4 and 5 weeks after secondary infection in grazing lambs did not differ statistically from each other but were highest at the 5th week after infection at 0·33 (s.e. 007).

FECs determined in pens were imperfectly correlated with FECs determined at pasture (genetic correlation 0·72, s.e. 013). Phenotypic correlations of single-record FECs across primary and secondary field challenges were low (around 0·2), although the genetic correlation between mean primary FEC and mean secondary FEC was not significantly different from unity. Testing under standardized conditions in pens did not result in consistently higher heritabilities than testing immunologically primed lambs at pasture. Repeated measurement in a breeding programme offers little additional benefit, except when lambs have had ample prior experience of parasite infection, with the two measures separated by an anthelmintic treatment. If an objective of a Merino breeding programme is to reduce FEC under field conditions, then using one measure in the field, approximately 3 to 5 weeks after a secondary artificial infection, is likely to lead to long-term progress.
Using artificial intelligence to design and implement a morphological assessment system in beef cattle
Authors: Goyache F. , del Coz J. J. , Quevedo J. R. , López S. , Alonso J. , Ranilla J. , Luaces O. , Alvarez I. , Bahamonde A.
Published: August 2016

In this paper a methodology is developed to improve the design and implementation of a linear morphological system in beef cattle using artificial intelligence. The proposed process involves an iterative mechanism where type traits are successively defined and computationally represented using knowledge engineering methodologies, scored by a set of trained human experts and finally, analysed by means of four reputed machine learning algorithms. The results thus achieved serve as feed back to the next iteration in order to improve the accuracy and efficacy of the proposed assessment system. A sample of 260 conformation records of the Asturiana de los Valles beef cattle breed is shown to illustrate the methodology. Three sources of inconsistency were detected: (a) the existence of different interpretations of the trait’s definition, increasing the subjectivity of the assessment; (b) the narrow range of variation of some of the anatomical traits assessed; (c) the inclusion of some complex traits in the assessment system. In this sense, the reopening of the evaluated Asturiana de los Valles assessment system is recommended. In spite of the difficulty of collecting data from live animals, further implications of the artificial intelligence systems on morphological assessment are pointed out.
Influence of genotype and gender on receptor binding affinity (Kd) for insulin and insulin receptor concentration in skeletal muscle and adipose tissue of growing lambs
Authors: McGrattan P. D. , Wylie A. R. G.
Published: August 2016

Differences in receptor binding affinity for insulin, and insulin receptor concentration, were found in skeletal muscle and adipose tissue of lambs differing in genotype and gender. The Rouge de l’Ouest lamb genotype had a lower receptor affinity for insulin in m. rectus capitis skeletal muscle compared with both Dutch Texel and Greyface lamb genotypes (P< 0·01). Insulin receptor concentration in m. longissimus dorsi skeletal muscle was greater in the Texel lamb genotype compared with both the Greyface (P< 0·001) and Rouge de l’Ouest (P< 0·05) lamb genotypes. Insulin receptor concentration in perirenal fat tissue was greater in the Rouge de l’Ouest lamb genotype compared with the Texel lamb genotype (P< 0·05).

There were no differences in receptor affinity for insulin between individual tissues in male and female lambs. The concentration of insulin receptors in male lambs was greater in m. longissimus dorsi (P< 0·05), subcutaneous adipose tissue (P< 0·05) and perirenal fat (P< 0·001) compared with female lambs. Receptor affinity for insulin in individual tissue depots also demonstrated significant genotype ✕ gender interactions. M. longissimus dorsi had a lower receptor affinity for insulin in Texel male lambs compared with Greyface male lambs (P< 0·05). M. rectus capitis had a lower receptor affinity in Rouge de l’Ouest male lambs compared with Texel male lambs (P< 0·01). M. rectus capitis also had a lower receptor affinity for insulin in Rouge de l’Ouest female lambs compared with both Texel and Greyface female lambs (P< 0·01). Within individual genotypes, m. longissimus dorsi had a lower receptor affinity for insulin in Greyface female lambs compared with Greyface male lambs (P< 0·05) whereas m. rectus capitis had a lower receptor affinity for insulin in Texel female lambs compared with Texel male lambs (P< 0·05).

Such differences in tissue receptor affinity for insulin and receptor concentration in lambs differing in genotype and gender could, through effects on tissue sensitivity and/or responsiveness to insulin, manipulate nutrient partitioning between skeletal muscle and fat tissue and hence control, at least in part, the efficiency of lean meat production.
Follicular growth and serum follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH) responses to recombinant bovine FSH in GnRH-immunized anoestrous heifers
Authors: Crowe M. A. , Enright W. J. , Boland M. P. , Roche J. F.
Published: August 2016

The effect of recombinant bovine FSH (rbFSH) administration on serum FSH and follicular growth was determined in 16 GnRH-immunized heifers (primary day 0 and booster day 28 using 0·4 mg human serum albumin (HSA) – Cys-Gly-GnRH in DEAE-dextran). All heifers produced GnRH antibody titres (mean 58·8 (s.e. 2·8)% binding at 1: 640 serum dilution on day 42), follicular growth ceased (follicles ≤ 4 mm) between days 33 and 49, progesterone concentrations were ≤ 0·5 ng/ml in all heifers by day 53, and pulsatile LH secretion was markedly reduced (v. luteal phase control heifers) on day 63. Heifers were blocked by antibody titre and LH concentrations on day 63 and assigned (no. = five or six per treatment) on day 78 to: (1) control (saline given i.m. four times per day for 4 days), (2) 0·5 mg equivalent (USDA bFSH BP 1) of rbFSH (Granada Biosciences, TX) given i.m. four times per day for 6 days (12 mg in total) or 3) 1·5 mg rbFSH given i.m. four times per day for 4 days (24 mg in total). Ovaries of heifers were examined by ultrasound and blood samples were collected at 3- to 6-h intervals from days –1 to 10 and then twice a day until follicles ≥ 5 mm were no longer detectable. The increase in serum FSH concentrations was different (P < 0·05) between treatments (mean peak FSH above pre-treatment baseline concentrations at 102 h after first rbFSH were 1·4 (s.e. 0·8), 14·5 (s.e. 3·3) and 33·6 (s.e. 5·3) ng/ml for treatments 1 to 3, respectively). The rate of decline in FSH from 102 to 302 h was not different between treatments 2 and 3. There was no detectable follicular growth in heifers given saline injections. Following either rbFSH treatment, medium (MF; 5 to 9 mm) and large (LF; ≥ 10 mm) follicles grew. For heifers in treatments 2 and 3, there was no difference in the interval from start of rbFSH until the first appearance of MF (4·2 (s.e. 0·7) v. 3·3 (s.e. 0·3) days) or LF (5·3 (s.e. 0·3) v. 4·8 (s.e. 0·8) days) or in the duration of the presence of MF and/or LF (13·2 (s.e. 4·5) v. 16·6 (s.e. 2·6) days). Increasing dose of rbFSH increased (P < 0·05) the mean maximum number of MF (4·3 (s.e. 1·1) and 9·2 (s.e.0·9) for treatments 2 and 3) and LF (2·0 (s.e. 1·1) and 8·4 (s.e. 1·2)). In summary, low doses of rbFSH induced a small cohort of follicles to grow and develop without selection or development of a single dominant follicle, whereas high doses of rbFSH resulted in large numbers of both MF and LF.
Technical review of the energy and protein requirements of growing pigs: energy
Authors: Whittemore C. T. , Knap P. W. , Green D. M.
Published: August 2016

A review of work reported in the literature was used to present quantitative descriptions of energy dispositioning in the growing pig. These are detailed in the text, which points to preferred values, as well as to anomalies and lacunae. The review was prepared with the objective of allowing from its content the inclusive and quantitative modelling of energy requirement. Requirement is approached as the sum of the component factors; maintenance, protein retention and lipid retention. Conventional expressions of maintenance requirement, as some function of pig mass, were found unconvincing in their variety of expression of coefficients and exponents. The review concluded that maintenance is properly related to protein turn-over, and thereby requires at least to include elements of concomitant protein metabolic activity. It was also judged that maintenance costs might be farm-specific. The energy requirements for activity, gaseous losses and disease were identified as important, but unsatisfactory in their quantification. Exploration of the energy costs of uncomfortable ambient temperatures suggested that whilst the responses of the pig are open to sophisticated and relatively exact calculation, the description of comfort remained inexact. The efficiency of retention of lipid by direct incorporation was high and may comprise a substantial proportion of the dietary lipid supply. There was little evidence of variation in the efficiency of utilization of metabolizable energy from carbohydrate for lipid retention. The linear-plateau paradigm for protein retention was adopted. The efficiency of utilization of energy for protein retention measured by a variety of approaches was found to be highly variable, prone to error and the literature confused. It was concluded that the efficiency of use of metabolizable energy for protein retention would be a function of at least: (a) the absorbed substrate being metabolized for the synthesis of body protein, (b) the rate of total protein tissue turn-over associated with the retention of newly accreted protein and not already accounted in the estimate of maintenance, (c) the mass of protein tissue involved in turn-over, and (d) the degree of maturity attained, and any influence maturity may have upon the rate of turn-over of total body protein. Algorithms for energy requirement are presented based upon protein turn-over and these appear to have some consistency with empirical findings.
Effectiveness of exogenous microbial phytase in improving the bioavailabilities of phosphorus and other nutrients in maize-soya-bean meal diets for broilers
Authors: Camden B. J. , Morel P.C.H. , Thomas D. V. , Ravindran V. , Bedford M. R.
Published: August 2016

A 3-week feeding trial using 300 1-day-old male broiler chicks was conducted to evaluate the effects of adding three levels of a microbial phytase (Finnfeed phytase; 250, 500 and 1000 U per kg diet) to a maize-soya-bean-meal diet containing 3·0 g/kg non-phytate phosphorus and 8·0 g/kg calcium. A diet containing 4·0 g/kg non-phytate phosphorus and 9·0 g/kg calcium served as the positive control. The responses were evaluated in terms of broiler performance, toe ash contents, ileal phytate degradation, ileal digestibility of nitrogen, amino acids, phosphorus, starch and fat, apparent metabolizable energy, apparent ileal digestible energy, and apparent retention of phosphorus and nitrogen. The addition of 500 U phytase per kg diet to the phosphorus-deficient maize-soya-bean-meal diet improved the performance and toe ash contents of broilers to equal those given the positive control diet. Ileal phytate degradation data provided direct evidence to the efficacy of phytase in hydrolysing the phytic acid. Addition of 500 U phytase per kg to the maize-soya-bean-meal diet which contained 3·0 g phytate-phosphorus per kg resulted in more than doubling of phytate degradation from 0·218 to 0·481. Supplemental phytase improved ileal digestibility of nitrogen, amino acids, starch and lipids, with these improvements being eventually reflected in enhancements in ileal digestible energy and apparent metabolizable energy.
Dose-response effect of dietary vitamin E concentration on meat quality characteristics in light-weight lambs
Authors: López-Bote C.J. , Daza A. , Soares M. , Berges E.
Published: August 2016

The research was carried out to evaluate the effect of different dietary α-tocopheryl acetate (DTA) concentrations in light-weight lambs on muscle α-tocopherol accumulation and on quality characteristics of stored meats. Thirty-two Manchego lambs were randomly distributed to four groups and given diets containing four levels of DTA (20, 270, 520 and 1020 mg/kg diet) for 6 weeks. Lambs were slaughtered at live weights ranging from 23·5 to 26·4 kg. A linear (P < 0·001) and quadratic (P < 0·001) effect of dietary supplementation level was observed on muscular α-tocopherol concentration, which fitted the following equation: mg muscle α-tocopherol per kg muscle = 1·78(s.e. 0·18) + 7·08 (s.e.0·89)(1 - e00012DTA)) (P < 0·001, R2 = 0·99). There was a linear effect (P < 0·001) of muscle vitamin E concentration on thiobarbituric acid reactive substance on day 0 of storage, but a linear plus quadratic effect (P < 0·001) on days 3, 6 and 9. Broken line analysis of data at day 9 of storage indicated a target muscle α-tocopherol concentration of 5·4 mg/kg. Evolution of surface redness of lamb chops also showed a linear and quadratic effect of dietary treatment on days 3 and 6 of storage, but only a linear effect on day 9. Broken line analysis of data at 3 and 6 days indicated a target α-tocopherol concentration in the range 5·3 to 5·6 mg/kg muscle for optimum red colour stability. Surface luminosity showed no effect of dietary treatment at days 0, 3 and 6 of storage but a linear (P < 0·01) plus quadratic (P < 0·05) effect on day 9 of storage. Broken line analysis at this point indicated a target muscle α-tocopherol concentration of 3·2 mg/kg. It is concluded that the effectiveness of dietary α-tocopheryl acetate supplementation depends on the meat quality attribute assessed. A significant positive effect for lipid oxidation can be reached even at the lower supplementation level utilized in this experiment (270 mg/kg diet). However, considering the protecting effect at different storage times and particularly the effect on meat surface redness, the optimum level would be in the range 5·3 to 5·6 mg/kg muscle, which correspond to a dietary inclusion of 550 to 625 mg α-tocopheryl acetate/kg diet.
Choice of foraging patches by hill sheep given different opportunities to seek shelter and food
Authors: Duncan A.J. , Mayes R.W. , Young S.A. , Lamb C.S. , MacEachern P.
Published: August 2016

A patch choice experiment was conducted in which sheep were offered choices between patches of upland pasture which differed in their sward height and degree of shelter from the wind. Experimental plots (48 m ✕ 4 m) were divided into 4 m ✕ 4 m patches. Alternate patches were mown in advance of the experiment to create nominal sward heights of 4 and 6 cm. Portable shelters were erected on the windward side of alternate patches to reduce wind speed on sheltered patches by half. The four treatment combinations used to test the influence of sward height, shelter and their interaction on patch use were: patchy swards with and without shelters and uniform swards with and without shelters. Five adult sheep per treatment were observed while grazing the plots for 6 h/day on five occasions (days) in autumn. Patch choice was measured by video observation and using a patch marker technique. On none of the observation days was the weather condition sufficiently severe that animals were outside their thermoneutral zone. There was a strong influence of sward height on patch use with sheep spending 0·382 of their time on short swards when patchy swards were offered compared with 0·503 of their time on equivalent areas when swards were uniform. Thermal conditions did not influence patch choice with sheep spending an average of 0·442 of their time on equivalent patches whether they were sheltered or not. There was no interaction between sward conditions and thermal conditions on the amount of time spent on different patches. Data from the patch marker method supported observation data. The results confirm that sheep are resilient to extremes of cold weather commonly occurring at temperate latitudes and suggest that thermal constraints have minimal influence on the small-scale foraging movements of sheep, as long as they remain within their thermoneutral zone.
OIL, UNCERTAINTY, AND GASOLINE PRICES
Authors: Chang Dongfeng , Serletis Apostolos
Published: August 2016

In this paper we investigate the relationship between crude oil and gasoline prices and also examine the effect of oil price uncertainty on gasoline prices. The empirical model is based on a structural vector autoregression that is modified to accommodate multivariate GARCH-in-Mean errors. We use monthly data for the United States over the period from January 1976 to September 2014. We find that there is an asymmetric relationship between crude oil and gasoline prices, and that oil price uncertainty has a positive effect on gasoline price changes. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications and alternative measures of the price of oil.
Vocabulary size and speed of word recognition in very young French–English bilinguals: A longitudinal study
Authors: LEGACY JACQUELINE , ZESIGER PASCAL , FRIEND MARGARET , POULIN-DUBOIS DIANE
Published: August 2016

A longitudinal study of lexical development in very young French–English bilinguals is reported. The Computerized Comprehension Test (CCT) was used to directly assess receptive vocabulary and processing efficiency, and parental report (CDI) was used to measure expressive vocabulary in monolingual and bilingual infants at 16 months, and six months later, at 22 months. All infants increased their comprehension and production of words over the six-month period, and bilingual infants acquired approximately as many new words in each of their languages as the monolinguals did. Speed of online word processing was also equivalent in both groups at each wave of data collection, and increased significantly across waves. Importantly, significant relations emerged between language exposure, vocabulary size, and processing speed, with proportion of language exposure predicting vocabulary size at each time point. This study extends previous findings by utilizing a direct measure of receptive vocabulary development and online word processing.
On a New Method of Constructing a Table of the Probabilities of Survivorship between Two Lives, for every Combination of Ages, and also a Table of the Present Value of Survivorship Assurances of £1 on (x) against (y)
Authors: Chisholm David
Published: August 2016

The present paper was undertaken on happening to peruse very lately Messrs. Gray, Smith, and Orchard's laborious and useful work, entitled Assurance and Annuity Tables, according to the Carlisle rate of Mortality, at 3 per Cent. In the introductory section of that work, when referring to the larger Tables V. and VI., containing the single and annual premiums for survivorship assurances, it is there very justly remarked, “Considering the frequency with which occasion arises for the functions here tabulated, and the tedious nature of the operations requisite when their values have to be formed from other tables, it may, at first sight, seem surprising that complete tables of them had not been formed long ere now; but the wonder will cease when it is farther considered that, until recently, there had been pointed out no other method of forming them than the tedious operation just referred to.
On the Settlement of Losses by Fire under Specific and Average Policies, Separate and Combined
Authors: Christie David
Published: August 2016

A note of alarm has been sounded at the present mode of adjusting fire losses under average policies; and it will be well, though for other reasons, hereafter to be explained, than those to which it owes its origin, that it be not allowed to die away without some effort to gain additional vantage-ground towards the substitution of a comprehensive and reasonable scheme of apportionment for the mischievous and unsound practice which now exists.
On an unfair supression of due acknowledgement to the writings of Mr. Benjamin Gompertz
Authors: De Morgan A.
Published: August 2016

In 1839, in the Penny Cyclopædia (article “Mortality”), I wrote as follows, referring to Mr. Gompertz's well-known hypothesis on the law of mortality:—

“We enter into some detail of it the more readily, that it is necessary as an act of justice to Mr. Gompertz, whose ideas have been adopted by a recent writer on the subject, without anything approaching to a sufficient acknowledgment.”
On Gompertz's Law of Mortality
Authors: De Morgan A.
Published: August 2016

I have a suspicion that Mr. Edmonds intends the fifteen pages on the “Law of Human Mortality,” which appear in the last Number of this Journal, to stand in place of an answer to my remarks “On an unfair suppression of due acknowledgment to the writings of Mr. Benjamin Gompertz,” printed in the July Number; for though no allusion is made to the charge, still less statement of it or answer to the evidence produced, there is one mention of me which looks so like a distortion of my paper, that I think the suspicion is justified. Mr. Edmonds says (p. 181), “Mr. De Morgan, in his office of self-constituted judge between Mr. Gompertz and me, overlooks this important error …” Now, though my paper does not deal with the truths or errors of either, but only with the question whether Mr. Edmonds's mention of Mr. Gompertz was suppressive; and though I never said, and certainly never thought, that there was or could be any question pending between Mr. Gompertz and Mr. Edmonds; and though I was not the judge, either self-constituted or otherwise, but only the promoter of an accusation of unfair suppression for others to judge of;—there is in the quotation that remote likeness to an account of my proceeding which often exists between that which cannot be answered and that which it is convenient to substitute for it.
On the Rejection of the Fractions of a Pound in extensive Valuations
Authors: De Morgan A.
Published: August 2016

When a mass of results are to be calculated and added up, it generally happens that a small fraction is of little consequence in each item, except as the little of which many make a mickle. The money calculator knows nothing of the principle that it is very hard, next to impossible, practically quite impossible, to get a mickle out of positives and negatives, when both are sure to occur in equal numbers in the long run, and with equal quantities. Generally speaking, the items of money calculations are determinable, and accuracy to the penny below the true result is a matter of contract. But in life contingencies, in which a certain amount of inaccuracy is known to lurk in the fundamental tables, no real truth is gained by tacking shillings, pence, and farthings, on to hundreds of pounds. If the nearest pound be always taken, granting that the calculated result shall be thereby a little altered, no man alive can say whether that alteration shall be approach to, or recession from, what we should call absolute truth, if our tables were perfect: it is as likely to be one as the other.
On the Forms under which Barrett's Method is presented, and on Changes of Words and Symbols
Authors: De Morgan A.
Published: August 2016

The mode of using Barrett's method has now something of farrago about it: a little discussion may be useful, were it only to awaken attention to the confusion arising from changes made without adherence to the recognised laws of perspicuity.

The farrago to which I have alluded arises out of a struggle between the annuity, as commonly understood, and what I shall continue to call the annuity due. According to the technical meaning of the word annuity, the payment begins to grow at the moment of the grant: thus, a yearly annuity for 12 years, deferred 20 years, begins action at the end of 20 years, and grows the first payment in the 21st year. I shall vary the phrase used in my “Essay on Probabilities” (Cab. Cycl.) by allowing the words “annuity due for x years” to signify an annuity of x payments, the first immediately. Thus an annuity for 12 years, now granted, will in a year become an annuity due, also for 12 years.
Solutions of General Problems in Survivorships
Authors: Makeham William Matthew
Published: August 2016

The following collection of problems is intended to serve two purposes—first, as a continuation of a former article, published in vol. x. of this Magazine, under the title of “Solutions of the Compound-Survivorship Assurance Problems,” which treats of cases involving three lives only; and secondly, as an introduction, or preliminary step, to a complete exposition of the writer's method of constructing mortality and annuity tables upon Mr. Gompertz's celebrated hypothesis, a brief account of which method will be found in the eighth and ninth volumes.
On the Summation of Divergent Series
Authors: De Morgan A.
Published: August 2016

In the last Number I gave the most elementary view I could arrive at of Arbogast's method of development. In the communication following I saw that Mr. Peter Gray had referred to Stirling's theorem; and this suggested that it might be useful to give, by means of common algebra only, an account of the two most important cases of summation of many terms of a divergent series.
Account of a Correspondence between Mr. George Barrett and Mr. Francis Baily
Authors: De Morgan A.
Published: August 2016

In looking over some papers of the late Francis Baily, at the request of his sister, for the purpose of advising on their disposal, I found in one packet a number of letters addressed to him by the late George Barrett, the inventor (in this country) of the method for calculating life contingencies which now goes by his name. I also found the manuscripts of Baily’s three works—on leases, on interest, and on life assurances: these are now in their proper place, the library of the Institute of Actuaries.

From Baily’s methodical habit of arranging his papers, I feel confident that the letters alluded to are all which he received from Barrett: unless, indeed, some passed which he preferred not to preserve. The interest with which actuaries look upon the method published in these letters makes me think it desirable to give some account of them in a work which all actuaries consult.
On the Demonstration of Formulæ connected with Interest and Annuities
Authors: De Morgan
Published: August 2016

In most branches of mathematics, the actual use of fundamental processes in the form which the first definitions suggest, is often supplanted, either by processes of greater skill, or by the use of pure reasoning. In the subject of which this paper treats, there has not been much attempt to connect formulæ by reasoning. The actual exhibition of successive annual results has been the only method extensively employed; and it throws the required total result into a series of terms: this series is either algebraically summed, or calculated term by term for insertion in a table.

The present paper is intended to show that this summation of algebraical series may be dispensed with, at least in questions of annuities certain : and also that common points of principle, which the ordinary methods leave altogether out of sight, will reduce many questions of life annuities to an absolute coincidence of form with the corresponding questions of ordinary annuities.
On Mr. Gompertz's Method for the Adjustment of Tables of Mortality
Authors: Gray Peter
Published: August 2016

When an observation has been made for the purpose of determining the mortality which has prevailed during a specified time in the community observed upon, it is usually found that the series of probabilities of living a year, at the various ages thence deduced, is very far from conforming to our ideas of what an exponent of the law of mortality ought to be. Instead of a series exhibiting throughout its extent a gradual and progressive change of value in passing from each term to the next, we have one showing but a faint approach to the desired regularity. This is just what, from the circumstances in which such observations are usually made, we ought to expect. It is not often that the community subjected to observation is sufficiently large, or that the period during which it is so subjected is sufficiently extended, to furnish us with such a series of average results as can alone fitly figure forth the law of mortality.
On the Mortality arising from Military Operations (Continued from p. 90.)
Authors: Hodge William Barwick
Published: August 2016

That the difference is due to the greater amount of attention and of comforts the officer by his position is enabled to secure, appears from the facts relating to the siege of Gibraltar and the battle of Toulouse. At the former, officers were as favourably situated as it is possible to be during actual hostilities, except for a short time when there was a scarcity of provisions; and of 35 that were wounded, only 1 died—a mortality very little more than one third of that in the field. The battle of Toulouse was fought, immediately before the cessation of hostilities, close to a large city, which afforded ample accommodation for the wounded; and out of 117 officers brought to the hospitals there, only 3 died, being 1 in 39, or a less proportion than at Gibraltar.
Report of the Proceedings at the Statistical Congress, held at Brussels, 19 to 22 September 1853. (Concluded from page 107, vol. iv)
Authors: Brown Samuel
Published: August 2016

After the inaugural address of M. Quetelet, the regulations for facilitating the business of the Congress were proposed and agreed to, and M. Ducpetiaux read a list of the papers and correspondence received.

The representatives of the Statistical Departments in the different Governments of Europe proceeded to give a summary view of the position occupied by statistics in their respective countries.
On some Questions of Combination
Authors: Morgan De
Published: August 2016

Questions of combination are so connected with an actuary's business, that no apology is necessary for offering solutions to the notice of the readers of thisJournal.

When two systems, A and B, of combinations, each having its own individual cases, are so related that each case of A admits of being converted into a case of B, and into one only, by a rule which will not convert any other case of A into that same case of B, it may be said that the system A isconvertiblywithin B. It is obvious that if A be convertibly within B, and B convertibly within A, the numbers of cases in the systems A and B are equal.
On the rate of Sickness and Mortality amongst the Members of Friendly Societies in France
Authors: Brown Samuel
Published: August 2016

It is not without some degree of pride, that we recall the fact that England has taken the lead in fostering and extending those social institutions which appear destined to carry out the beneficent design of procuring the greatest possible amount of happiness for the greatest possible number. She has not been afraid to encourage a spirit of self reliance in the mass of the people, and to allow her working classes to associate freely in the effort to equalize the uncertainties of life, so that those who may have a little better fortune than the average may assist those who have a little less. Now and then, indications may have been observed of fear amongst the ruling powers lest this free association should be used for political purposes, and doctrines dangerous to the Government or the good order of society be thereby enabled to circulate too easily amongst classes who may have real wrongs to redress or fancied rights to assert; but, in the long run, good sense has prevailed, and Government has fortunately perceived that Friendly Societies for mutual aid in sickness or want, and other associations for bettering the condition of the working classes, gave them a direct interest in the preservation of the public peace, and formed by their very principles the antidote to the fears they had excited.
On the Comparison of various Tables of Annuities
Authors: Lubbock J. W.
Published: August 2016

1. A Short time back I transmitted to the Philosophical Society of Cambridge some remarks upon the construction of tables of annuities: my object in that paper was to show how the probabilities upon which annuities depend should be deduced from tables of mortality, and I gave in illustration some tables of annuities calculated from observations of the mortality at Chester, by Dr. Haygarth, which appear to have been made with very great care. I have since compared these tables with a great many others, and I now present the result of this comparison.
On the Application of Bonuses to Limit either the term of an Assurance or the number of payments to be made under it being Excerpts from a paper read before the Actuarial Society of Edinburgh, on 5th December, 1867
Authors: Macfadyen James R.
Published: August 2016

The application of bonus to the hastening of the time fixed by the original contract for the payment of a life assurance policy, and the using of it to extinguish the premiums payable during the latter years of life, are systems, which, partly from their growing favor with the public, and consequent adoption by many offices, and still more from the fact, that the subject is by no means exhausted, notwithstanding various able articles that have appeared in this Journal, seem to me to render apology unnecessary for again treating of it.
Adjusted Mortality of the British Peerage Females
Authors: Thiele T. N.
Published: August 2016

Dr. T. N. Thiele makes the following remarks in reply to those we prefixed to his adjusted table of mortality given in the last number of this Journal:—

I must consider the constant difference of about 0·1 after the age of 50 between my adjustment and the numbers of living, which follow from the observations, but are not directly observed, and therefore not independent of each other, as the probabilities of living are, as an agreement completely satisfactory. The apparent disagreement I consider to be the result of one observation (52–53), where the observed probability of life disagrees strongly with the numbers of the other adjacent ages, and is not compensated by the following numbers disagreeing sufficiently in the opposite direction. Whence in comparing the calculated probabilities with the observed no systematical disagreement appears in these ages, as the following table shows; but if the numbers of living are compared, every other adjustment must show a disagreement of the same kind at the age of 50 as mine.
On the Risk attaching to the grant of Life Assurances. (Continued from page 221.)
Authors: Bremiker C.
Published: August 2016

Having thus, as I believe, demonstrated that life insurance calculations have nothing to do with probabilities, I come back to the idea of risk. This, as I pointed out at starting, must be taken from the theory of probabilities, or more precisely, from that part of it which has been cultivated since the beginning of this century, by Lagrange, Gauss, Laplace, and others, viz., the method of least squares. In that method is defined the idea of the “mean error,” which is considered as the measure of the danger to which we are exposed in a single case. This “mean error” is the square root of the sum of all the squares of the errors divided by their number; and the squares of the errors themselves are formed from the deviations of all the single cases from the average or most probable value. In insurances depending upon life and death, the value is also calculated according to the average, so that when all the assured are dead, if the mortality has followed the mean numbers given by the table of mortality, and the additions to the premiums for the expenses of management are disregarded, there will be neither surplus nor deficiency. This average value is the so-called net premium, which may be either a single premium or may be payable for a term of years agreed on beforehand. But we can calculate beforehand from the mortality table all the deviations, or the gains and losses, which can arise from the earlier or later death of the lives assured. Squaring all these deviations, and dividing the sum of the squares by their number, and taking the square root of this sum, we get the value of the mean danger or the risk attaching to a single insurance. For further elucidation some applications of this process will now be given.
On Insolvency in Life Assurance Companies
Authors: Bailey A. H.
Published: August 2016

The question,—how insolvent Life Assurance Companies are to be dealt with,—which all who take an interest in assurance affairs have for some considerable time been aware could not much longer be evaded, has during the last three years assumed a pressing importance, and although the subject has lately been discussed in several pamphlets and essays by members of this Institute and others it can hardly be considered, exhausted. One of our most distinguished public men, himself one of the ablest lawyers of the day, after a searching and diligent enquiry has come to the conclusion that no better way can be found to settle the affairs of the “Albert,” than by distributing among its more than 20,000 assured a sum which, on an average, may be expected to yield about one year's premium for each. It is surely worth consideration whether it is desirable that this decision should be drawn into a precedent, and besides, the subject may interest the members of this Institute for its own sake, because it involves questions concerning estimates of liabilities with regard to which actuaries are by no means agreed, and at which lawyers are in the habit of looking from a different point of view altogether. Certainly we may learn something from the legal profession, possibly they may pick up a little from us, towards the elucidation of a somewhat intricate matter, and the solution of a by no means easy problem.
The Influence of Occupation upon Health, as shown by the Mortality experienced
Authors: Neison Francis G. P.
Published: August 2016

The influence that occupation has upon health is a subject that has hitherto attracted but little attention, for though in the works of one or two writers on vital statistics it has been slightly alluded to, no work has yet appeared which, while founded on direct observation, has been devoted to the treatment of this subject.
On the Rate of Interest yielded by Foreign Government Loans
Authors: Sutton William
Published: August 2016

From the fact that a very large amount of capital has been of recent years invested in loans to foreign governments, the question of sinking funds and other kindred matters has come prominently into notice; and matters which at one time were only looked upon as belonging to the theory of compound interest, are now become of great moment to thousands of persons who have invested, or purpose to invest, their money in the above-mentioned class of security. Various causes appear to have led to the large increase in the popularity of foreign loans among certain classes of investors. No doubt, the rapid growth of unemployed capital has considerably reduced the rate of interest realizable on first-class home securities, and has induced persons anxious to obtain a high rate of interest to invest their money elsewhere. From the nature of the case, however, even a fairly high rate of interest would not generally be sufficient inducement for an investor to lend money to a perfectly irresponsible foreign government, which might at any time, if it thought fit, renounce all its past financial obligations. Whether the general practice of providing for the repayment of loans has arisen from the scruples of foreign governments to accumulate a large national debt like our own, or whether, on the other hand, it has been found necessary to give an undertaking to repay the loan over a term of years, in order to make the loan at all palatable to investors, I cannot say; but the fact none the less remains, that very generally provision appears to be made, in the case of loans by foreign governments, for repayment in a shorter or longer period of time.
Building an Accessible Archive for Water Column Sonar Data
Authors: Wall Carrie
Published: August 2016

The Water Column Sonar Data Archive aggregates and curates sonar data sets from many sources, giving researchers access to much more information than they could collect on their own.
Antarctic last interglacial isotope peak in response to sea ice retreat not ice-sheet collapse
Authors: Holloway Max D. , Sime Louise C. , Singarayer Joy S. , Tindall Julia C. , Bunch Pete , Valdes Paul J.
Published: August 2016

Several studies have suggested that sea-level rise during the last interglacial implies retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The prevalent hypothesis is that the retreat coincided with the peak Antarctic temperature and stable water isotope values from 128,000 years ago (128 ka); very early in the last interglacial. Here, by analysing climate model simulations of last interglacial WAIS loss featuring water isotopes, we show instead that the isotopic response to WAIS loss is in opposition to the isotopic evidence at 128 ka. Instead, a reduction in winter sea ice area of 65±7% fully explains the 128 ka ice core evidence. Our finding of a marked retreat of the sea ice at 128 ka demonstrates the sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice extent to climate warming.