Projected Global Trends in Hematological Malignancies: Incidence, Mortality, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years from 2020 to 2030
Authors: An Zhuo-Yu , Fu Haixia , He Yun , Zhu Xiaolu , Huang Qiu-Sha , Wu Jin , Liu Kaiyan , Zhang Xiaohui 
Published: December 2023

Introduction: Hematological malignancies encompass a diverse group of conditions affecting the blood and its components, including anemia, bleeding disorders, hematologic malignancies, and inherited blood disorders. These disorders have a substantial impact on global health, posing challenges for health care systems worldwide. Understanding the future trends in the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) associated with hematological malignancies is crucial for effective health care planning and resource allocation. This study was designed to project the global trends in hematological malignancies from 2020 to 2030 and provide insights into the anticipated burden of these conditions.

Methods: Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were utilized to forecast trends in the incidence, deaths, and DALYs associated with hematological malignancies between 2020 and 2030. EAPCs were derived using generalized additive models and data from the Global Burden of Disease study spanning from 1990 to 2019. The analysis involved utilizing a comprehensive and systematic approach, incorporating data from multiple sources, including population-based surveys, disease registries, health care databases, and vital statistics. Age-specific and sex-specific incidence rates, mortality rates, and DALYs were calculated for each specific hematological disorder. Advanced statistical modeling techniques, including time series analysis and predictive modeling, were employed to estimate future trends. The projections took into account demographic changes, epidemiological transitions, and advancements in medical technology.

Results: The projections for the next decade indicate a varied trend in the age-standardized incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rates of hematological malignancies globally. By 2030, the incidence rates per 100,000 individuals are expected to rise to 0.045 for multiple myeloma (EAPC = 1.70%), 0.016 for leukemia (EAPC = 0.79%), 0.012 for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (EAPC = 1.65%), and 0.002 for Hodgkin lymphoma (EAPC = 0.55%). The global age-standardized mortality rates associated with hematological malignancies show a differential trend. The mortality rates per 100,000 population are projected to increase to 0.016 for multiple myeloma (EAPC = 1.68%) and 0.008 for leukemia (EAPC = 0.40%). On the other hand, a decrease in mortality rate is expected for Hodgkin lymphoma (EAPC = -0.13%), while non-Hodgkin lymphoma exhibits a rise in mortality rate to 0.007 (EAPC = 1.31%). Similarly, the DALY rates per 100,000 population are expected to increase to 0.242 for multiple myeloma (EAPC = 1.54%) and 0.174 for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (EAPC = 0.90%). In contrast, the DALY rates for leukemia and Hodgkin lymphoma are projected to decrease to 0.248 (EAPC = -0.62%) and 0.023 (EAPC = -0.50%), respectively. In terms of geographical distribution, China is expected to face a considerable surge in the total number of hematological malignancy cases, with an estimate of approximately 859,692 cases by 2030. Globally, the total number of hematological malignancy cases is projected to reach approximately 4,634,937. The projected total number of hematological malignancy cases by 2030 across different levels of SDI are as follows: 1,113,313 cases in high-SDI areas, 1,004,403 cases in high-middle SDI areas, 475,496 cases in low-SDI areas, 795,475 cases in low-middle SDI areas, and 1,244,424 cases in middle-SDI areas.

Conclusions: The projected global trends in hematological malignancies highlight the urgent need for comprehensive strategies to address this growing burden. Prevention and early detection programs should be strengthened to mitigate the increasing incidence of these malignancies . Accurate diagnosis, appropriate management, and access to affordable treatments are crucial for improving patient outcomes. Health care systems must allocate adequate resources, including health care infrastructure, skilled health care professionals, and specialized services, to effectively manage the growing impact of hematological malignancies . Furthermore, collaboration among health care providers, researchers, policy-makers, and patient advocacy groups is essential to develop and implement evidence-based strategies that can alleviate the future challenges posed by hematological malignancies.