bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Evaluation of Food Additives and Low‐toxicity Compounds for the Control of Bean Rust and Wheat Leaf Rust
Authors: Arslan U. , Ilhan K. , Karabulut O. A.
Published: August 2006

The efficacy of low‐toxicity chemicals as possible alternatives to synthetic fungicides for the control of Uromyces appendiculatus and Puccinia triticina was evaluated. A preliminary selection of food additives was performed through in vitro and in vivo preliminary screenings. The ED50 and minimum inhibition concentration (MIC) values showed that most of the food additives used in this study were more toxic to U. appendiculatus than to P. triticina. Acetic acid, potassium carbonate, sodium carbonate and sodium molybdate were the food additives that were more toxic to the urediniospores of P. triticina. Selected compounds and concentrations were tested on bean and wheat plants grown in pots under controlled conditions. Acetic acid, ammonium bicarbonate, potassium acetate, potassium benzoate, potassium bicarbonate, potassium carbonate, sodium acetate and sodium citrate at 0.03, 0.09, 0.03, 0.006, 0.012, 0.012, 0.03 and 0.03 m, respectively, significantly reduced the disease severity of U. appendiculatus without causing any injury to bean leaves. Ammonium bicarbonate, potassium bicarbonate, sodium bicarbonate and sodium citrate at 0.12, 0.03, 0.12 and 0.03 m, respectively, were the most effective in reducing the disease severity caused by P. triticina without causing any injury to wheat leaves.
Analysis of Genetic Diversity of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. phaseoli Isolates, Pathogenic and Non‐pathogenic to Common Bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.)
Authors: Zanotti M. G. S. , De Queiroz M. V. , Dos Santos J. K. , Rocha R. B. , De Barros E. G. , Araújo E. F.
Published: August 2006

Twenty isolates of Fusarium oxysporum from Brazil, pathogenic and non‐pathogenic to common bean, were analysed using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPDs) to study the genetic diversity. RAPD analysis using 23 oligonucleotides resulted in the amplification of 229 polymorphic and 7 monomorphic DNA fragments ranging from 234 to 2590 bp. High genetic variability was observed among the isolates, with the distances varying between 8% and 76% among pathogenic, 2% and 63% among the non‐pathogenic and 45% and 76% between pathogenic and non‐pathogenic isolates. The analysis of genetic distance data showed that the pathogenic isolates tended to group in one group and the non‐pathogenic in another. The genetic distance values of 30% among the pathogenic isolates in cluster A are compatible with the genetic distance values observed within the physiological races, but the distance values among the pathogenic isolates in clusters B and G are not compatible with the distance values observed within the race. Although our results are preliminary, it was not possible to exclude the existence of more than one race of this fungus in Brazil.
The Experience of Conditional Cash Transfers in Latin America and the Caribbean
Authors: Handa Sudhanshu , Davis Benjamin
Published: August 2006

This article discusses the experience of six conditional cash transfer programmes in Latin America, a model of social safety‐nets which has grown to dominate the social protection sector in the region during the past decade. While they have been generally successful in terms of achieving their core objective, it is still not clear whether these programmes constitute the most cost‐efficient or sustainable solution to the development bottleneck they seek to address. Furthermore, the almost exclusive focus on the human capital accumulation of children leads to missed opportunties in terms of impact on household welfare and the broader rural development context.
Cash Transfers for School‐Age Children in African Countries: Simulation of Impacts on Poverty and School Attendance
Authors: Kakwani Nanak , Soares Fabio , Son Hyun H.
Published: August 2006

Drawing on data from 15 African countries, simulation models suggest that to reduce the poverty headcount ratio by increasing incomes among poor households, cash transfers would have to be sizeable – in the range of 2–8% of GDP. Even then, an increase in income, by itself, would not suffice to increase school attendance significantly. Higher impacts at lower cost could be achieved by making transfers targeted and conditional. However, the administrative costs of detailed targeting (e.g. by income) are known to be high. On the other hand, some broad measures, such as targeting rural children only, produce results almost as good as income‐linked targeting and, given their low administrative costs, are to be preferred.
Social Cash Transfers in Low‐Income African Countries: Conditional or Unconditional?
Authors: Schubert Bernd , Slater Rachel
Published: August 2006

Conventional wisdom hails Latin American experience with conditional cash transfers (CCTs) as successful, but, to the authors' knowledge, there have been no rigorous analyses of the respective costs and benefits of conditional versus unconditional transfers. The impact of conditionality itself is therefore not known. This article argues that the important contextual differences between Africa and Latin America, in quality and quantity of service provision, capacity to implement conditionality, socio‐cultural, ethnic and political contexts, and, potentially, the benefit:cost ratio of conditionality, may well make the introduction of CCTs in Africa inappropriate. It sets out a number of questions and points to a new case in Chipata, Zambia, which will be rigorously monitored from the outset.
Moving from Emergency Food Aid to Predictable Cash Transfers: Recent Experience in Ethiopia
Authors: Kebede Emebet
Published: August 2006

Changes in the way hunger is tackled in Ethiopia have significant implications for its estimated 8.8 million chronically and acutely food‐insecure people. This article compares findings from the new Productive Safety‐Net Programme (PSNP) in two districts where Save the Children‐UK is a PSNP implementing partner or has its own cash‐based livelihood‐development programme. Evidence from the first year suggests that shifting from food to cash transfer programmes has implications for targeting and for the availability and price of food in local markets, especially in remote, deficit areas, and therefore requires a range of complementary measures, if the programmes are to be successful.
Cash or Food Aid? A General Equilibrium Analysis for Ethiopia
Authors: Gelan Ayele
Published: August 2006

This article examines the relative effectiveness of cash and in‐kind food aid, using an economy‐wide modelling framework and a social accounting matrix constructed for Ethiopia. It argues that cash aid has larger positive effects on household welfare, with multiplier effects on households other than direct recipients, and that food aid provides a disincentive to local food production. However, where cash transfers cause food prices to rise, welfare losses may be suffered by those who are neither targeted nor beneficiaries. The highly aggregated nature of the model allows only a tentative policy recommendation in favour of cash transfers.
State Trading and Tariff Rate Quotas: The Case of Korea’s Rice Imports
Authors: Hranaiova Jana , Gorter Harry de
Published: August 2006

This paper analyzes the effects of trade liberalization of tariff‐rate quotas under import “state trading enterprises” (STEs) in agriculture. An analytical framework is provided to determine the importance of which instrument is binding under competition (the in‐quota or out‐of‐quota tariff or the quota) and under the initial STE equilibrium. It also depends on whether or not the STE controls both the domestic market prices and owns/controls the import quota (and whether it is obligated to fill the quota or not). An empirical example of the rice STE in South Korea has simulations showing that an increase in imports can be achieved through a moderate expansion of the quota or a decrease in the out‐of‐quota tariff to the level where it becomes binding. However, a significant level of quota expansion induces the STE to switch to the autarky solution and social welfare declines.
The Influence of Others on Migration Plans
Authors: Epstein Gil S. , Gang Ira N.
Published: August 2006

The willingness to migrate and locational choice may be influenced by others’ choices or plans, particularly if the “other people,” such as family and friends, are migrants, former migrants, or potential migrants themselves. We examine the roles “other people” play in influencing an individual’s potential migration decision. In analyzing the influence of others on migration decisions, we rely on the concepts of migration networks and herd effects.
Political Competition Between Countries and Economic Growth
Authors: Chaudhry Azam , Garner Phillip
Published: August 2006

Political competition between European countries has been viewed as being a stimulus to the innovation process and part of the reason why Europe was the first region of the world to experience sustained growth. Countries that fell behind their rivals technologically and economically became more vulnerable to exploitation. In this way, the presence of rival states provided added incentive to innovate. This paper uses a simple model of conflict between countries to study the role of political competition in economic growth. The governments of each country are threatened politically by innovation and, hence, face a trade‐off between the stability of their regime and keeping up with their rivals. The model shows that “institutional spillovers,” such as a decrease in the level of rent‐seeking in one country, can affect growth in a competing country. Thus, political fragmentation can be growth enhancing as it can result in more political competition.
Isolation of polymorphic tetranucleotide microsatellite markers for the silky short‐tailed bat Carollia brevicauda
Authors: BARDELEBEN CAROLYNE , CAMPBELL POLLY , LARA MARCIA , MOORE RACHAEL L.
Published: August 2006

We isolated 10 polymorphic microsatellite markers for the silky short‐tailed bat, Carollia brevicauda, from genomic libraries enriched for (AAGG)n repetitive elements. The number of alleles ranged from six to 25 per locus with the observed heterozygosity ranging from 0.29 to 0.95. These markers will be useful for analysis of questions concerning population genetic structure and models of speciation. Results of cross‐species amplification in Carollia castanea and Carollia perspicillata are also reported.
Impact of the Medicare Short Stay Transfer Policy on Patients undergoing Major Orthopedic Surgery
Authors: FitzGerald John D. , John Boscardin W. , Hahn Bevra H. , Ettner Susan L.
Published: August 2006

Objective. To examine the impact of the Short Stay Transfer Policy (SSTP) on practice patterns.

Data Sources. This study uses data from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services Medicare Provider Analysis and Review (MEDPAR) file, Home Health Standard Analytical File, 1999 Provider of Service file, and data from the 2000 United States Census.

Study Design. An interrupted time‐series analysis was used to examine the length of stay (LOS) and probability of “early” discharge to post acute care (PAC).

Data Collection. Separate 100percent samples of all fee‐for‐service Medicare recipients undergoing either elective joint replacement (JR) surgery or surgical management of hip fracture (FX) between January 1, 1996 and December 31, 2000 were selected.

Principal Findings. Prior to implementation of the SSTP. LOS had been falling by 0.37 and 0.30 days per year for JR and FX patients respectively. After implementation of the SSTP, there was an immediate increase in LOS by 0.20 and 0.17 days, respectively. Thereafter, LOS remained flat. The proportion of patients discharged “early” to PAC had been rising by 4.4 and 2.6 percentage points per year for JR and FX patients respectively, to a peak of 28.8percent and 20.4percent early PAC utilization in September 1998. Immediately after implementation of the SSTP, there was a 4.3 and 3.0 percentage point drop in utilization of “early” PAC. Thereafter utilization of early PAC increased at a much slower rate (for JR) or remained flat (for FX). There was significant regional variation in the magnitude of response to the policy.

Conclusion. Implementation of the SSTP reduced the financial incentive to discharge patients early to PAC. This was accomplished primarily through longer LOS without meaningful change in PAC utilization. With the recent expansion of the SSTP to 29 DRGs (representing 34percent of all discharges), these findings have important implications regarding patient care.
Does Type of Gatekeeping Model Affect Access to Outpatient Specialty Mental Health Services?
Authors: Hodgkin Dominic , Merrick Elizabeth L. , Horgan Constance M. , Garnick Deborah W. , McLaughlin Thomas J.
Published: August 2006

Objective. To measure how a change in gatekeeping model affects utilization of specialty mental health services.

Data Sources/Study Setting. Secondary data from health insurance claims for services during 1996–1999. The setting is a managed care organization that changed gatekeeping model in one of its divisions, from in‐person evaluation to the use of a call‐center.

Study Design. We evaluate the impact of the change in gatekeeping model by comparing utilization during the 2 years before and 2 years after the change, both in the affected division and in another division where gatekeeping model did not change. The design is thus a controlled quasi‐experimental one. Subjects were not randomized. Key dependent variables are whether each individual had any specialty mental health visits in a year; the number of visits; and the proportion of users exceeding eight visits in a year. Key explanatory variables include demographic variables and indicators for patient diagnoses and their intervention status (time‐period, study group).

Data Collection/Extraction Methods. Claims data were aggregated to create analytic files with one record per member per year, with variables reporting demographic characteristics and mental health service use.

Principal Findings. After controlling for secular trends at the other division, the division which changed gatekeeping model eventually experienced an increase in the proportion of enrollees receiving specialty mental health treatment, of 0.5 percentage point. Similarly, there was an increase of about 0.6 annual visits per user, concentrated at the low end of the distribution. These changes occurred only in the second year after the gatekeeping changes.

Conclusions. The results of this study suggest that the gatekeeping changes did lead to increases in utilization of mental health care, as hypothesized. At the same time, the magnitude of the increase in access and mean number of visits that we found was relatively modest. This suggests that while the change from face‐to‐face specialty gatekeeping to call‐center intake does increase utilization, it is unlikely to overwhelm a system with new demand or create huge cost increases.
Clinical Practice Guideline Implementation Strategy Patterns in Veterans Affairs Primary Care Clinics
Authors: Hysong Sylvia J. , Best Richard G. , Pugh Jacqueline A.
Published: August 2006

Background. The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) mandated the system‐wide implementation of clinical practice guidelines (CPGs) in the mid‐1990s, arming all facilities with basic resources to facilitate implementation; despite this resource allocation, significant variability still exists across VA facilities in implementation success.

Objective. This study compares CPG implementation strategy patterns used by high and low performing primary care clinics in the VA.

Research Design. Descriptive, cross‐sectional study of a purposeful sample of six Veterans Affairs Medical Centers (VAMCs) with high and low performance on six CPGs.

Subjects. One hundred and two employees (management, quality improvement, clinic personnel) involved with guideline implementation at each VAMC primary care clinic.

Measures. Participants reported specific strategies used by their facility to implement guidelines in 1‐hour semi‐structured interviews. Facilities were classified as high or low performers based on their guideline adherence scores calculated through independently conducted chart reviews.

Findings. High performing facilities (HPFs) (a) invested significantly in the implementation of the electronic medical record and locally adapting it to provider needs, (b) invested dedicated resources to guideline‐related initiatives, and (c) exhibited a clear direction in their strategy choices. Low performing facilities exhibited (a) earlier stages of development for their electronic medical record, (b) reliance on preexisting resources for guideline implementation, with little local adaptation, and (c) no clear direction in their strategy choices.

Conclusion. A multifaceted, yet targeted, strategic approach to guideline implementation emphasizing dedicated resources and local adaptation may result in more successful implementation and higher guideline adherence than relying on standardized resources and taxing preexisting channels.
Effect of Medicaid Managed Care on Racial Disparities in Health Care Access
Authors: Lê Cook Benjamin
Published: August 2006

Objective. To evaluate the impact of Medicaid Managed Care (MMC) on racial disparities in access to care consistent with the Institute of Medicine (IOM) definition of racial disparity, which excludes differences stemming from health status but includes socioeconomic status (SES)‐mediated differences.

Data Sources. Secondary data from the Adult Samples of the 1997–2001 National Health Interview Survey, metropolitan statistical area (MSA)‐level Medicaid Health Maintenance Organization (MHMO) market share from the 1997 to 2001 InterStudy MSA Trend Dataset, and MSA characteristics from the 1997 to 2001 Area Resource File.

Study Design. I estimate multivariate regression models to compare racial disparities in doctor visits, emergency room (ER) use, and having a usual source of care between enrollees in MMC and Medicaid Fee‐for‐Service (FFS) plans. To contend with potential selection bias, I use a difference‐in‐difference analytical strategy and assess the impact of greater MHMO market share at the MSA level on Medicaid enrollees' access measures. To implement the IOM definition of racial disparity, I adjust for health status but not SES factors using a novel method to transform the distribution of health status for minority populations to approximate the white health status distribution.

Principal Findings. MMC enrollment is associated with lowered disparities in having any doctor visit in the last year for blacks, and in having any usual source of care for both blacks and Hispanics. Increasing Medicaid HMO market share lowered disparities in having any doctor visits in the last year for both blacks and Hispanics. Although disparities in most other measures were not much affected, black–white ER use disparities exist among MMC enrollees and in areas of high MHMO market share.

Conclusions. MMC programs' reduction of some disparities suggests that recent shifts in Medicaid policy toward managed care plans have benefited minority enrollees. Future research should investigate whether black–white disparities in ER use within MMC groups represent the flexibility of MMC plans to locate primary care in ERs or an inefficient delivery of care.
Survey Conditioning in Self‐Reported Mental Health Service Use: Randomized Comparison of Alternative Instrument Formats
Authors: Duan Naihua , Alegria Margarita , Canino Glorisa , McGuire Thomas G. , Takeuchi David
Published: August 2006

Objective. To test the effect of survey conditioning (whether observed survey responses are affected by previous experience in the same survey or similar surveys) in a survey instrument used to assess mental health service use.

Data Sources. Primary data collected in the National Latino and Asian American Study, a cross‐sectional household survey of Latinos and Asian Americans residing in the United States.

Study Design. Study participants are randomly assigned to a Traditional Instrument with an interleafed format placing service use questions after detailed questions on disorders, or a Modified Instrument with an ensemble format screening for service use near the beginning of the survey. We hypothesize the ensemble format to be less susceptible to survey conditioning than the interleafed format. We compare self‐reported mental health services use measures (overall, aggregate categories, and specific categories) between recipients of the two instruments, using 2 × 2 χ2 tests and logistic regressions that control for key covariates.

Data Collection. In‐person computer‐assisted interviews, conducted in respondent's preferred language (English, Spanish, Mandarin Chinese, Tagalog, or Vietnamese).

Principal Findings. Higher service use rates are reported with the Modified Instrument than with the Traditional Instrument for all service use measures; odds ratios range from 1.41 to 3.10, all p‐values <.001. Results are similar across ethnic groups and insensitive to model specification.

Conclusions. Survey conditioning biases downward reported mental health service use when the instrument follows an interleafed format. An ensemble format should be used when it is feasible for measures that are susceptible to survey conditioning.
Incorporation of Recreational Fishing Effort into Design of Marine Protected Areas
Authors: LYNCH TIM P.
Published: August 2006

Abstract:  Theoretical models of marine protected areas (MPAs) that explore benefits to fisheries or biodiversity conservation often assume a dynamic pool of fishing effort. For instance, effort is homogenously distributed over areas from which subsets of reserves are chosen. I tested this and other model assumptions with a case study of the multiple‐use Jervis Bay Marine Park. Prior to zoning of the park I conducted 166 surveys of the park's recreational fisheries, plotting the location of 16,009 anglers. I converted these plots into diagrams of fishing effort and analyzed correlates between fishing and habitat and the effect of two reserve designs—the draft and final zoning plans of the park—on the 15 fisheries observed. Fisheries were strongly correlated with particular habitats and had negatively skewed and often bimodal spatial distribution. The second mode of intensely fished habitat could be 6 SD greater than the fishery's mean allocation of effort by area. In the draft‐zoning plan, sanctuary zone (no‐take) area and potential subduction of fishing effort were similar. In the final plan, which was altered in response to public comment, the area of sanctuary zone increased, and the impact on fishing effort decreased. In only one case was a fishery's most intensely targeted location closed to fishing. Because of the discriminating manner with which fishers target habitats, if simple percentage targets are used for planning, sanctuary location can be adjusted to avoid existing fishing effort. According to modeled outcomes, the implication of this may be diminished reserve effectiveness. To address this, reserve area should be implicitly linked to subducted fishing effort when promoting or modeling MPAs.
Shrinking Tropical Forests, Human Agents of Change, and Conservation Policy
Authors: RUDEL THOMAS K.
Published: August 2006

Abstract:  Human agents of landscape transformation in the tropics affect forests differently as the forests decline in size. Five agents of change—road builders, corporate concession holders, community forest managers, park advocates, and urban consumers—have different effects on large forests in remote tropical regions than they do on remnant forests in settled agricultural regions. Because forests vary so much in size across tropical regions, these differences in the effects of agents on forests have important implications for regional conservation efforts. To make these implications explicit, I compared the effects of the five agents in regions with large forests with their effects in regions with small forests. The comparisons indicated that, as forests declined in size, new roads no longer destroyed forests, corporate loggers left the forests, community forest managers became more effective, parks became less feasible as a means of conservation, and urban consumers initiated tree planting. My results suggest that awareness about the changing effects of humans on landscapes with shrinking forests can serve as a useful tool in formulating regionally appropriate policies for conserving tropical forests.
Assessing the Effectiveness of Reserve Acquisition Programs in Protecting Rare and Threatened Species
Authors: TURNER WILL R. , WILCOVE DAVID S. , SWAIN HILARY M.
Published: August 2006

Abstract:  Measuring the effectiveness of reserve networks is essential to ensure that conservation objectives such as species persistence are being met. We devised a new approach for measuring the effectiveness of land conservation in protecting rare and threatened species and applied it to an ecosystem of global significance. We compiled detailed global distributional data for 36 rare and threatened plants and animals found in the Lake Wales Ridge ecosystem in central Florida (U.S.A.). For each species, we developed a set of protection indices based in part on criteria used to categorize species for the World Conservation Union's Red List. We calculated protection indexes under three different conservation scenarios: a past scenario, which assumed recent, major land‐acquisition efforts never occurred; a current scenario, which assumed no additional areas are saved beyond what is currently protected; and a targeted scenario, which assumed all of the remaining areas targeted for protection are eventually acquired. This approach enabled us to quantify the progress, in terms of reduced risk of extinction, that conservationists have made in protecting target species. It also revealed the limited success these land‐acquisition efforts have had in reducing those extinction risks associated with loss of habitat or small geographic ranges. Many species of the Lake Wales Ridge will remain at high risk of extinction even if planned land‐acquisition efforts are completely successful. By calculating protection indexes with and without each site for all imperiled species, we also quantified the contribution of each protected area to the conservation of each species, enabling local conservation decisions to be made in the context of a larger (global) perspective. The protection index approach can be adapted readily to other ecosystems with multiple rare and threatened species.
Adaptive Harvesting of Source Populations for Translocation: a Case Study with New Zealand Robins
Authors: DIMOND WENDY J. , ARMSTRONG DOUG P.
Published: August 2006

Abstract: Reintroductions are conducted frequently throughout the world, and some source populations are harvested repeatedly to provide animals for translocation. The responses of these source populations to harvest should be monitored, and the resulting data used to refine population models will guide management. After North Island Robins ( Petroica longipes) were reintroduced to Tiritiri Matangi, New Zealand, in 1992, the population became a source for robins for additional reintroductions in the region. We constructed an initial model for the population on the basis of the data collected from 1992 to 1998 and used it to predict the population's response to the first translocation of robins from the island in the autumn (March) of 1999. We then analyzed postharvest data on survival (with mark‐recapture analysis) and fecundity (with generalized linear‐mixed modeling) to reassess and update the model. In the initial model, juvenile survival was assumed to be limited by the island's fixed carrying capacity, with excess juveniles dying over winter; hence, the autumn harvest was expected to cause an immediate increase in juvenile survival. In postharvest analysis, however, most juvenile mortality occurred before autumn, and the best predictor of juvenile survival was the number of breeding pairs present the previous spring (start of the breeding season). Consequently, the updated population model predicted sustainable harvest levels about half those given by the initial model, and this model has been used to guide the number of individuals removed for two subsequent translocations. The ongoing development of the model has been invaluable for assuring conservation authorities that the population is not being unsustainably harvested, which has allowed surplus animals to be used to establish new populations. Our case study illustrates the value of an adaptive approach to harvesting source populations for reintroduction and illustrates the value of such studies for understanding the density‐dependent mechanisms regulating populations.
The Horticultural Trade and Ornamental Plant Invasions in Britain
Authors: DEHNEN‐SCHMUTZ KATHARINA , TOUZA JULIA , PERRINGS CHARLES , WILLIAMSON MARK
Published: August 2006

Abstract:  Ornamental horticulture has been recognized as the main pathway for plant invasions worldwide. We examined the link between propagule pressure created by the presence of ornamental plants in the market and their ability to escape from cultivation and establish in the wild. A random sample of 534 non‐native ornamental species on sale in nineteenth century Britain showed that 27% of these species were recorded growing outside cultivation and 30% of those were established. Species that had escaped from cultivation were more frequently on sale both in the nineteenth century and today than nonescaping species. We used logit regression models to identify biological and socioeconomic variables that affect species' abilities to escape cultivation and become established. Frequencies in the market in the nineteenth century and today were good explanatory variables that distinguished escaping from nonescaping species, whereas for the transition from casual to established status these two socioeconomic variables were either absent or only of weak significance. Biological characteristics that increased the probability that a species would escape from cultivation were species height, a European native range, and being an annual. Climbing plants and species intolerant of low temperatures were less likely to escape. In contrast, the establishment probability was greater if the species belonged to a genus native to Britain and increased as the number of continents in a plant's native range increased. Annual plants had a reduced probability of establishment. Market presence, prices, and the date of introduction are among the socioeconomic factors that have had important effects on the observed course of invasions.
Regional Variations in the Realignment of American Politics, 1944–2004*
Authors: Bullock Charles S. , Hoffman Donna R. , Gaddie Ronald Keith
Published: August 2006

Objective. Perennial questions in electoral studies are what constitutes realignment, and when and where do realignments occur? Using the concepts of critical and secular realignments as a framework, we model change in the end product of realignment, election outcomes. We test for secular and critical changes in partisan strength across six geographic regions of the United States, focusing on office‐holding data at both the federal and state legislative level.

Methods. Using an interrupted time‐series model, we examine evidence for secular realignment and posit five critical interventions that have affected American politics since World War II.

Results. Our findings suggest that there are elements of both critical and secular realignments at work with different patterns in each region, and that different regions have been affected by a variety of elections associated with critical events since 1944.

Conclusions. The collapse of Republican hegemony in the Northeast and Pacific West has gone largely unnoticed, buried in the intense examination of the growth of the Republican Party in the American South. The 1994 election is the most prominent in terms of its impact on seat holding by the parties at both the state and national level, and constitutes a realigning election.
Moving Beyond Tokenism: Ratification of the Equal Rights Amendment and the Election of Women to State Legislatures*
Authors: Crowley Jocelyn Elise
Published: August 2006

Objective.State legislative bodies that contain more than a token level (15 percent) of female representatives provide these lawmakers with a greater sense of self‐efficacy and opportunities for wider policy influence than those where women number under 15 percent. The objective of this study is to determine the set of factors that carry states across this critical threshold, with a particular emphasis on the political mobilization effects of the Equal Rights Amendment (ERA) ratification drive.

Method.This study used event‐history analysis methods on state‐level data collected from 1972–2000.

Results.I find that states that ratified the ERA, but not states that ratified only later to rescind, had a higher likelihood of crossing this token threshold as compared with states that never ratified at all. These results obtain even after controlling for the social eligibility pool of female candidates, the political opportunity structure, the social context of each state, and preexisting levels of female representation.

Conclusions.The ERA ratification campaign during the 1970s and early 1980s created long‐lasting, state‐level effects in electing women through its role as a political education tool as well as through its symbolic power.
The Drug‐Laden Balloon: U.S. Military Assistance and Coca Production in the Central Andes*
Authors: Rouse Stella M. , Arce Moises
Published: August 2006

Objective. This article explores the empirical effects of U.S. drug policy on coca cultivation in the Central Andes. We assess the impact of U.S. military assistance on the production of coca in the Central Andes, while controlling for other explanatory variables that influence coca cultivation.

Method. Using data from 1980–2001 for Colombia, Bolivia, and Peru, we perform a pooled cross‐sectional time‐series analysis.

Results. The effects of U.S. military assistance on coca cultivation are not uniform across the Central Andes. Coca production decreased in Bolivia and Peru and increased in Colombia. Total coca production in the Central Andes, however, remained unchanged.

Conclusion. This study is consistent with existing literature that points out the obstacles governments face as they attempt to suppress illicit goods. Specifically, our empirical findings support the idea of the “balloon effect,” whereby government efforts to “squeeze” illicit trade in one area result in the expansion of that trade elsewhere.
From Every Tribe and Nation? Blacks and the Christian Right*
Authors: Robinson Carin
Published: August 2006

Objectives.The Christian Right is predominantly made up of white evangelicals but in recent years, the movement has attempted to include African Americans in social policy initiatives. This article examines support for the Christian Right from African Americans.

Methods.The article is based on an analysis of data from the 1996 and 2000 National Election Studies and data from the Religion and Politics Survey, 2000.

Results.The study finds that social conservatism does not predict support for the Christian Right from blacks like it does for whites but that evangelical affiliation predicts support from both groups. Black women are more likely to support the organization than are black men.

Conclusions.The insignificant effect of social conservatism on blacks' attitudes toward the Christian Right raises questions as to how the movement can best appeal to this minority group. At the very least, the Christian Right does not appear to have solidified support from African Americans on the basis of shared convictions related to abortion and gay rights. Support for the Christian Right from African Americans remains difficult to measure and largely unpredictable.
Transformation of the Black Business Elite*
Authors: Boyd Robert L.
Published: August 2006

Objective.This study fills a void in research on race and social change by analyzing the transformation of the “black business elite,” that is, those blacks who have been nationally recognized as successful entrepreneurs.

Methods.Data from encyclopedic sources on eminent black entrepreneurs are used to build a chronology that documents how this elite has changed over time.

Results.In the early and middle 20th century, the elite was dominated by southerners who prospered in lines of enterprise that arose because of racially segregated consumer markets, namely, banking, insurance, and publishing. By the end of the 20th century, the elite was dominated by northerners, many of whom were born in the North and succeeded in forms of mass media entertainment that appeal to racially integrated audiences.

Conclusion.These geographical and occupational shifts reflect salient post World War II changes in race relations, most notably the decline of racial segregation in many areas of social life and the increase of opportunities for black entertainers to achieve distinction on a national level. Yet, blacks' pursuit of eminence in the business world continues to be focused into a narrow range of endeavors.
Economic Segregation, Race, and Homicide*
Authors: Eitle David , D'Alessio Stewart J. , Stolzenberg Lisa
Published: August 2006

Objective. Prior research assessing the association between structured inequality and homicides has produced inconsistent findings, particularly in regard to establishing an association between economic disadvantage and black homicide rates. In this study, we employ a measure of the spatial distribution of income, Jargowksy's (1996) economic segregation measure, to assess overall and race‐specific homicide rates.

Methods. Using cross‐sectional Census data and Supplemental Homicide Report data across 166 Metropolitan Statistical Areas, the present analysis uses negative binomial regression models to examine the association between economic segregation and homicide rates.

Results. We find that both economic segregation and absolute deprivation (i.e., the overall extent of economic disadvantage) are robust predictors of black, white, and overall homicide rates. However, an alternative measure of economic segregation, a measure capturing poverty concentration, was not found to be a significant predictor of black homicide rates.

Conclusion. We suggest that further studies should consider the extent of isolation across the income continuum, instead of focusing solely on poverty concentration.
The Transnational Organization of Production and Environmental Degradation: A Cross‐National Study of the Effects of Foreign Capital Penetration on Water Pollution Intensity, 1980–1995*
Authors: Jorgenson Andrew K.
Published: August 2006

Objective. This study attempts to increase our understanding of the environmental impacts of the transnational organization of production in the context of foreign capital penetration.

Methods. With a sample of 53 countries, panel analyses using OLS and robust regression are conducted to assess the effects of foreign direct investment in the manufacturing sector on growth in organic water pollution intensity, 1980–1995. Slope‐dummy interaction variables are used to compare the effects in developed countries and less‐developed countries. The tested models include a variety of relevant controls, such as domestic investment, state environmentalism, size of the manufacturing sector, and level of economic development.

Results. Findings for the analyses indicate that foreign direct investment in manufacturing positively affects growth in organic water pollution intensity in less‐developed countries, while the effect in developed countries is nonsignificant.

Conclusions. This research illustrates the need for social scientists to investigate the environmental impacts of both the transnational organization of production and the overall scale of production in different sectors.
For Those Who Like Odds: A Direct Interpretation of the Logit Coefficient for Continuous Variables*
Authors: Roncek Dennis W. , Swatt Marc L.
Published: August 2006

Objective. Researchers have suggested a number of different methods for interpreting the coefficients in a logit model. Unfortunately, many of these interpretations suffer from a lack clarity or involve a substantial number of manipulations of the logit coefficient prior to interpretation. In this article, we discuss a straightforward method of interpreting logit coefficients for continuous dependent variables without the need for extensive transformation.

Method. Drawing on Stolzenberg's (1979) techniques for interpreting logarithmic regression models, we demonstrate that the logit coefficient multiplied by 100 can be directly interpreted as the percentage change in the odds given a unit change in the independent variable. We also derive an analogous interpretation for ordinal logit models.

Results. After these derivations, the ease of this technique is demonstrated using a simple logit model.

Conclusion. Given the generality of this interpretation, as well as its ease of computation, it is hoped that researchers from a number of disciplines will adopt this strategy for interpreting logit models.
Pope John Paul II and Catholic Opinion Toward the Death Penalty and Abortion*
Authors: Mulligan Kenneth
Published: August 2006

Objective.Research on opinion leadership examines the convergence of opinion between elites and masses on issues of public policy. I examine the confluence of opinion between Pope John Paul II and American Catholics on the death penalty and legalized abortion.

Method.I use data from three nationally representative opinion surveys and one statewide survey conducted prior to John Paul's death.

Results.The results support the supposition that Catholics who esteemed the pope are more negative in their evaluations of the death penalty and abortion.

Conclusions.John Paul II, as leader of the Catholic Church, may have influenced Catholic opinion on political issues.
Frequency Mapping of the Pulmonary Veins in Paroxysmal Versus Permanent Atrial Fibrillation
Authors: SANDERS PRASHANTHAN , NALLIAH CHRISHAN J. , DUBOIS RÉMI , TAKAHASHI YOSHIHIDE , HOCINI MÉLÈZE , ROTTER MARTIN , ROSTOCK THOMAS , SACHER FRÉDERIC , HSU LI‐FERN , JÖNSSON ANDERS , O'NEILL MARK D. , JAÏS PIERRE , HAÏSSAGUERRE MICHEL
Published: August 2006

Introduction: The pulmonary veins (PVs) are a dominant source of triggers initiating atrial fibrillation (AF). While recent evidence implicates these structures in the maintenance of paroxysmal AF, their role in permanent AF is not known. The current study aims to compare the contribution of PV activity to the maintenance of paroxysmal and permanent AF.

Methods and Results: Thirty‐four patients with paroxysmal AF (n = 20) or permanent AF (n = 14) undergoing ablation were studied. Prior to ablation, 32 seconds of electrograms were acquired from each PV and the coronary sinus (CS). The frequency of activity of each PV and CS was defined as the highest amplitude frequency on spectral analysis. The effects of ablation on the AF cycle length (AFCL) and frequency and on AF termination were determined. Significant differences were observed between paroxysmal and permanent AF. Paroxysmal AF demonstrates higher frequency PV activity (11.0 ± 3.1 vs 8.8 ± 3.0 Hz; P = 0.0003) but lower CS frequency (5.8 ± 1.2 vs 6.9 ± 1.4 Hz; P = 0.01) and longer AFCL (182 ± 17 vs 158 ± 21 msec; P = 0.002), resulting in greater PV to atrial frequency gradient (7.2 ± 2.2 vs 4.2 ± 2.9 Hz; P = 0.006). PV isolation in paroxysmal AF resulted in a greater decrease in atrial frequency (1.0 ± 0.7 vs −0.05 ± 0.4 Hz; P < 0.0001), greater prolongation of the AFCL (49 ± 35 vs 5 ± 6 msec; P < 0.0001), and more frequent AF termination (11/20 vs 0/14; P = 0.0007) compared to permanent AF.

Conclusion: Paroxysmal AF is associated with higher frequency PV activity and lesser CS frequency compared to permanent AF. Isolation of the PVs had a greater impact on the fibrillatory process in paroxysmal AF compared to permanent AF, suggesting that while the PVs have a role in maintaining paroxysmal AF, these structures independently contribute less to the maintenance of permanent AF.
Morphologic Characteristics of the Left Atrial Appendage, Roof, and Septum: Implications for the Ablation of Atrial Fibrillation
Authors: WONGCHAROEN WANWARANG , TSAO HSUAN‐MING , WU MEI‐HAN , TAI CHING‐TAI , CHANG SHIH‐LIN , LIN YENN‐JIANG , LO LI‐WEI , CHEN YI‐JEN , SHEU MING‐HUEI , CHANG CHENG‐YEN , CHEN SHIH‐ANN
Published: August 2006

Introduction: The left atrium (LA) ablation in different regions, including LA appendage (LAA), LA roof, and LA septum, has recently been proposed to improve the success rate of treating patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). The purpose of this study was to investigate the anatomy of LAA, LA roof, and LA septum, using computed tomography (CT).

Methods and Results: Multidetector CT scan was used to depict the LA in 47 patients with drug‐refractory paroxysmal AF (39 males, age = 50 ± 12 years) and 49 control subjects (34 males, age = 54 ± 11 years). The area of LAA orifice, neck, and the length of roof line were greater in AF group than in control subjects. Three types of LAA locations and two types of LAA ridges were observed. Higher incidence of inferior LAA was noted in AF patients. The different morphologies of LA roof were described. Roof pouches were revealed in 15% of AF and 14% of controls. Moreover, we found septal ridge in 32% of AF and 23% of controls.

Conclusions: Considerable variations of LAA and LA roof morphologies were demonstrated. Peculiar structures, including roof pouches and septal ridges, were delineated by CT imaging. These findings were important for determining the strategy of AF ablation and avoiding the procedure‐related complications.
Bistability from double phosphorylation in signal transduction
Authors: Ortega Fernando , Garcés José L. , Mas Francesc , Kholodenko Boris N. , Cascante Marta
Published: August 2006

Previous studies have suggested that positive feedback loops and ultrasensitivity are prerequisites for bistability in covalent modification cascades. However, it was recently shown that bistability and hysteresis can also arise solely from multisite phosphorylation. Here we analytically demonstrate that double phosphorylation of a protein (or other covalent modification) generates bistability only if: (a) the two phosphorylation (or the two dephosphorylation) reactions are catalyzed by the same enzyme; (b) the kinetics operate at least partly in the zero‐order region; and (c) the ratio of the catalytic constants of the phosphorylation and dephosphorylation steps in the first modification cycle is less than this ratio in the second cycle. We also show that multisite phosphorylation enlarges the region of kinetic parameter values in which bistability appears, but does not generate multistability. In addition, we conclude that a cascade of phosphorylation/dephosphorylation cycles generates multiple steady states in the absence of feedback or feedforward loops. Our results show that bistable behavior in covalent modification cascades relies not only on the structure and regulatory pattern of feedback/feedforward loops, but also on the kinetic characteristics of their component proteins.