Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential
Authors: Mo Lidong , Zohner Constantin M. , Reich Peter B. , Liang Jingjing , de Miguel Sergio , Nabuurs Gert-Jan , Renner Susanne S. , van den Hoogen Johan , Araza Arnan , Herold Martin , Mirzagholi Leila , Ma Haozhi , Averill Colin , Phillips Oliver L. , Gamarra Javier G. P. , Hordijk Iris , Routh Devin , Abegg Meinrad , Adou Yao Yves C. , Alberti Giorgio , Almeyda Zambrano Angelica M. , Alvarado Braulio Vilchez , Alvarez-Dávila Esteban , Alvarez-Loayza Patricia , Alves Luciana F. , Amaral Iêda , Ammer Christian , Antón-Fernández Clara , Araujo-Murakami Alejandro , Arroyo Luzmila , Avitabile Valerio , Aymard Gerardo A. , Baker Timothy R. , Bałazy Radomir , Banki Olaf , Barroso Jorcely G. , Bastian Meredith L. , Bastin Jean-Francois , Birigazzi Luca , Birnbaum Philippe , Bitariho Robert , Boeckx Pascal , Bongers Frans , Bouriaud Olivier , Brancalion Pedro H. S. , Brandl Susanne , Brearley Francis Q. , Brienen Roel , Broadbent Eben N. , Bruelheide Helge , Bussotti Filippo , Cazzolla Gatti Roberto , César Ricardo G. , Cesljar Goran , Chazdon Robin L. , Chen Han Y. H. , Chisholm Chelsea , Cho Hyunkook , Cienciala Emil , Clark Connie , Clark David , Colletta Gabriel D. , Coomes David A. , Cornejo Valverde Fernando , Corral-Rivas José J. , Crim Philip M. , Cumming Jonathan R. , Dayanandan Selvadurai , de Gasper André L. , Decuyper Mathieu , Derroire Géraldine , DeVries Ben , Djordjevic Ilija , Dolezal Jiri , Dourdain Aurélie , Engone Obiang Nestor Laurier , Enquist Brian J. , Eyre Teresa J. , Fandohan Adandé Belarmain , Fayle Tom M. , Feldpausch Ted R. , Ferreira Leandro V. , Finér Leena , Fischer Markus , Fletcher Christine , Frizzera Lorenzo , Gianelle Damiano , Glick Henry B. , Harris David J. , Hector Andrew , Hemp Andreas , Hengeveld Geerten , Hérault Bruno , Herbohn John L. , Hillers Annika , Honorio Coronado Eurídice N. , Hui Cang , Ibanez Thomas , Imai Nobuo , Jagodziński Andrzej M. , Jaroszewicz Bogdan , Johannsen Vivian Kvist , Joly Carlos A. , Jucker Tommaso , Jung Ilbin , Karminov Viktor , Kartawinata Kuswata , Kearsley Elizabeth , Kenfack David , Kennard Deborah K. , Kepfer-Rojas Sebastian , Keppel Gunnar , Khan Mohammed Latif , Killeen Timothy J. , Kim Hyun Seok , Kitayama Kanehiro , Köhl Michael , Korjus Henn , Kraxner Florian , Kucher Dmitry , Laarmann Diana , Lang Mait , Lu Huicui , Lukina Natalia V. , Maitner Brian S. , Malhi Yadvinder , Marcon Eric , Marimon Beatriz Schwantes , Marimon-Junior Ben Hur , Marshall Andrew R. , Martin Emanuel H. , Meave Jorge A. , Melo-Cruz Omar , Mendoza Casimiro , Mendoza-Polo Irina , Miscicki Stanislaw , Merow Cory , Monteagudo Mendoza Abel , Moreno Vanessa S. , Mukul Sharif A. , Mundhenk Philip , Nava-Miranda María Guadalupe , Neill David , Neldner Victor J. , Nevenic Radovan V. , Ngugi Michael R. , Niklaus Pascal A. , Oleksyn Jacek , Ontikov Petr , Ortiz-Malavasi Edgar , Pan Yude , Paquette Alain , Parada-Gutierrez Alexander , Parfenova Elena I. , Park Minjee , Parren Marc , Parthasarathy Narayanaswamy , Peri Pablo L. , Pfautsch Sebastian , Picard Nicolas , Piedade Maria Teresa F. , Piotto Daniel , Pitman Nigel C. A. , Poulsen Axel Dalberg , Poulsen John R. , Pretzsch Hans , Ramirez Arevalo Freddy , Restrepo-Correa Zorayda , Rodeghiero Mirco , Rolim Samir G. , Roopsind Anand , Rovero Francesco , Rutishauser Ervan , Saikia Purabi , Salas-Eljatib Christian , Saner Philippe , Schall Peter , Schelhaas Mart-Jan , Schepaschenko Dmitry , Scherer-Lorenzen Michael , Schmid Bernhard , Schöngart Jochen , Searle Eric B. , Seben Vladimír , Serra-Diaz Josep M. , Sheil Douglas , Shvidenko Anatoly Z. , Silva-Espejo Javier E. , Silveira Marcos , Singh James , Sist Plinio , Slik Ferry , Sonké Bonaventure , Souza Alexandre F. , Stereńczak Krzysztof J. , Svenning Jens-Christian , Svoboda Miroslav , Swanepoel Ben , Targhetta Natalia , Tchebakova Nadja , ter Steege Hans , Thomas Raquel , Tikhonova Elena , Umunay Peter M. , Usoltsev Vladimir A. , Valencia Renato , Valladares Fernando , van der Plas Fons , Van Do Tran , van Nuland Michael E. , Vasquez Rodolfo M. , Verbeeck Hans , Viana Helder , Vibrans Alexander C. , Vieira Simone , von Gadow Klaus , Wang Hua-Feng , Watson James V. , Werner Gijsbert D. A. , Wiser Susan K. , Wittmann Florian , Woell Hannsjoerg , Wortel Verginia , Zagt Roderik , Zawiła-Niedźwiecki Tomasz , Zhang Chunyu , Zhao Xiuhai , Zhou Mo , Zhu Zhi-Xin , Zo-Bi Irie C. , Gann George D. , Crowther Thomas W. 
Published: November 2023

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system1. Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced6 and satellite-derived approaches2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.