bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
On the ratio-correlation and related methods of subnational population estimation
Authors: Namboodiri N. Krishnan
Published: March 2007

The ratio-correlation method is one of several methods currently being used in the United States for making postcensal estimates of subnational units such as states and counties. It seems to have been commonly presumed by those writing on the subject that the working of the ratiocorrelation method can be understood simply on the basis of the multiple regression theory. That this common notion may sometimes be untenable is demonstrated in this paper. It is pointed out that the ratio-correlation method of subnational population estimation has certain characteristic features that make its application fall sometimes outside the usual contexts in which the conventional multiple regression theory is applicable. A number of alternatives to the ratio-correlation method are suggested. Some of the alternatives suggested are shown to yield relatively more accurate results when used for estimating postcensal populations of North Carolina counties.
Growth of U.S. population, 1940–1971, in the light of an interactive two-sex model
Authors: Das Gupta Prithwis
Published: March 2007

Since it is logically impossible to hold constant both male and female age-specific fertility rates, the intrinsic growth rates or the net reproduction rates for males and females, based on that assumption, are internally inconsistent. The interactive two-sex model presented in this paper holds constant a set of bivariate age-specific fertility rates by age of men and women and allows the male and female age-specific fertility rates to adjust themselves to achieve stability. The model gives the same intrinsic growth rate for both sexes and generates intrinsic age-specific fertility rates and intrinsic net reproduction rates for males and females which are consistent and can operate simultaneously on a population. The model is applied to the U.S. data for 1940–1971, and the results are compared with those obtained from the one-sex models.
The long-term effects of time-dependent maternity behavior
Authors: Cerone P.
Published: March 2007

Using the integral population model of Sharpe and Lotka, it is demonstrated that if the time variation of the maternity function is assumed to only affect the parent population, then standard methods of obtaining the long-term behavior may still be used. Further, if the net maternity function has explicit time dependence, in contrast to age dependence, only for time less than the minimum age of childbearing, the standard techniques still may be used. It is shown that the recent extensions of Cerone and Keane to include exponential time dependence may be applied, together with the above observations, to define piecewise time-dependent net maternity functions and to determine the resulting long-term asymptotic behavior of the population. The population management problem of determining the time path of change needed to approach a given population also is considered in some detail.
Attitudes toward abortion among catholic Mexican-American women: The effects of religiosity and education
Authors: Rosenhouse-Persson Sandra , Sabagh Georges
Published: March 2007

Contrary to observed trends in religious fertility and contraceptive use differentials, Catholic/non-Catholic differentials in attitudes toward abortion have not been converging. This study suggests that this may be due to an interaction between religiosity and education. In a sample of Catholic Mexican-American women in Los Angeles County, the authors found that among respondents brought up in Mexico, education had a liberalizing effect on their attitudes. With the exception of the most devout, the same trend was observed among U.S.-reared respondents. Among the most religious group, however, education had the opposite effect, suggesting that convergence will be delayed.
Fertility and replacement: Some alternative stochastic models and results for Brazil
Authors: Mauskopf Josephine , Wallace T. Dudley
Published: March 2007

The observed joint distribution of births and child deaths for a cohort of women at a given point in time depends on the number of children that would have been born had the family experienced no deaths, the number of child deaths experienced, and the proportion of these deaths that are replaced by a subsequent birth. In this paper we estimate the parameters of the assumed distributions of these three events using a minimum distance estimation model and data from the 1970 Brazilian census. The parameter estimates are shown to be similar to those obtained previously using a maximum likelihood estimation model. When the data are subdivided according to women’s years of schooling, estimates of probability of a child death and mean and variance of children born if no deaths decrease while estimates of probability of replacement of a dead child increase as years of schooling increase.
A multilevel model of family planning availability and contraceptive use in rural Thailand
Authors: Entwisle Barbara , Hermalin Albert I. , Kamnuansilpa Peerasit , Chamratrithirong Apichat
Published: March 2007

This paper assesses the ways in which the availability of family planning program outlets influences the likelihood of contraceptive use in rural Thailand. It focuses on a village-level measure of actual availability of sources rather than respondent perceptions of availability. Individuallevel and village-level data collected as part of the second Thailand Contraceptive Prevalence Survey are used to test three hypotheses about the effects of actual availability: that (a) availability of family planning outlets increases the likelihood of contraceptive use; (b) it enhances the effect of a desire for no more children on the likelihood of use; and (c) it weakens the positive relationship between education and the likelihood of use.
Robustness of 5
q
x estimators under nonstationarity
Authors: Smith David P.
Published: March 2007

When age-specific death rates are available for single year ages any of several formulas may be used to estimate the probability of dying in an age interval, 5qx. For 5-year age intervals, however, the simplest formulas are usually not as precise as some that are more complex. If in addition, the population is stable but nonstationary or is subject to fairly regular birth cycles, a formula due to Keyfitz and Frauenthal performs markedly better than others. Tests on real populations also support KeyfitzFrauenthal, and suggest that actual differences between other competing formulas may be small.
From natural fertility to family limitation: The onset of fertility transition in a sample of German villages
Authors: Knodel John
Published: March 2007

Utilizing data from a sample of German village genealogies, it is possible to document the changes in reproductive patterns on the family level that started to take place in Germany during the nineteenth century and formed the basis for the secular decline in fertility which eventually encompassed the entire country. One striking finding from this study was the substantial diversity among the small sample of villages in terms of the timing of the emergence of family limitation. While couples in all villages who married during the last half of the eighteenth century appeared to be characterized predominantly by natural fertility, the emergence of family limitation began as early as the turn of the nineteenth century in some places and as late as the end of the nineteenth century in others. Occupational differentials with respect to family limitation were also examined. There is little evidence that changes in birth spacing played an important part in the initial phase of the fertility transition. Rather, the underlying process appears to involve a change from fertility patterns that were characterized by the absence of parity-dependent control to one in which attempts to terminate childbearing in response to the number of children already born becomes widespread.
Reproductive goals and achieved fertility: A fifteen-year perspective
Authors: Coombs Lolagene C.
Published: March 2007

A measure of underlying family size preference obtained for a sample of Detroit married women in 1962 is related to their fertility over a 15-year follow-up period. The data represent completed fertility. The I-scale preference measure used differs from the conventional single-valued statement of number of children wanted; it is a more fine-grained measure reflecting the respondent’s utility for children as evidenced by her entire preference order. The scales are found to be consistently predictive of fertility over the 15-year prospective period, net of a number of other variables usually associated with differential fertility. The results for the just-married sample, in which preferences and expectations are not confounded with the number of children already born, are particularly striking, with underlying preference much better than expected family size as a predictor of fertility over the entire reproductive cycle. The question of prediction for continuous and discontinuous marriages is discussed.
Religion, Socialization, and Fertility
Authors: Janssen Susan G. , Hauser Robert M.
Published: March 2007

Longitudinal data from a large .sample of Wisconsin men and women are used to examine the effects on fertility of religious and secular socialization, including farm upbringing. Analyses of children ever born (CEB) and of parity progression show that current religious choice is more important in explaining fertility than is religion of orientation or denomination of secondary school. The effects of current and background religion are additive, and the effect of current religion is the same for men as for women at each parity progression. Catholic religious background affects fertility primarily by increasing the likelihood of having a third or fourth child; its indirect effects on fertility operate through religious schooling and current religious affiliation. Unlike religious background, the positive influence of farm background on fertility persists among men and women, even when current farm employment is controlled.
The Effect of Female Education on Fertility: A Simple Explanation
Authors: Jain Anrudh K.
Published: March 2007

This paper investigates the structure of the relationship between female education and fertility. It is based on data published in First Country Reports of the World Fertility Surveys for eleven countries—Costa Rica, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Panama, Fiji, Korea, Malaysia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and Indonesia. The cumulative marital fertility of educated women is shown to be similar in different settings. A lack of uniformity in the education and fertility relationship including the curvilinear nature of this relationship observed across countries is shown to be attributable to marked differences between countries in the average fertility of women with no education rather than to the presumed differences in the average fertility of the educated women. The structure of the relationship is shown to be similar across several developing countries. This analysis suggests that advancement in female education can be expected to influence fertility behavior even without simultaneous changes in other factors such as increasing opportunity for participation in the paid labor force in the modem sector.
Dissolution of First Unions in Colombia, Panama, and Peru
Authors: Goldman Noreen
Published: March 2007

An analysis of marital histories from World Fertility Survey data in Colombia, Panama, and Peru indicates a high level of union dissolution: the probabilities of a first union ending by separation within twenty years of the onset of union equal .27, .40, and .18 in the three countries respectively. Dissolution probabilities are especially high among women with young ages at first union and among women residing in urban areas. For all subgroups studied, consensual unions are characterized by several times the risk of separation of legal marriages. Consensual unions are especially frequent among women in rural areas, women with little education and women who enter unions at young ages. The different prevalence of consensual unions among the different subgroups affects the associations between union stability and various correlates so that it becomes essential to investigate the factors affecting union stability for both consensual unions and legal marriages. In spite of high dissolution rates, remarriage rates in all three countries are also high, as are the percentages of time spent in a union. Hence, the potential effects of voluntary disruption of unions on fertility appear to be modest.
Young Women’s Transition to Marriage
Authors: Waite Linda J. , Spine Glenna D.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines determinants of timing of marriage for young women by modeling the transition from the single to the married state by age. This approach, combined with a large longitudinal data set, allows us to disaggregate the analysis into fine age groupings and to include situational and attitudinal factors in our model. We find that those characteristics of a young woman’s parental family that reflect the availability of parental resources tend to decrease the chances of a marriage during the early teens. Chances of marrying appear to decrease with increases in the availability and attractiveness of alternatives to the wife role and in the costs of assuming it. We discuss these results from the perspective of the societal and parental normative pressures which affect timing of marriage for young women.
Variations in Infant Mortality Rates Among Counties of the United States: The Roles of Public Policies and Programs
Authors: Grossman Michael , Jacobowitz Steven
Published: March 2007

The purpose of this paper is to shed light on the causes of the rapid decline in the infant mortality rate in the United States in the period after 1963. The roles of four public policies are considered: Medicaid, subsidized family planning services for low-income women, maternal and infant care projects, and the legalization of abortion. The most striking finding is that the increase in the legal abortion rate is the single most important factor in reductions in both white and nonwhite neonatal mortality rates. Not only does the growth in abortion dominate the other public policies, but it also dominates schooling and poverty.
Recent Nonmetropolitan Population Change in Fifty-Year Perspective
Authors: Johnson Kenneth M. , Purdy Ross L.
Published: March 2007

Post-1970 nonmetropolitan population shifts are examined by dividing nonmetropolitan counties into ten cohorts based on the duration and direction of consistent population change since 1920. Analysis indicates that the post-1970 gains reported by Beale are pervasive in nonmetropolitan America, occurring even in a majority of the counties that lost population consistently from 1920 to 1970.Growth was greatest in counties adjacent to metropolitan areas but was more than urban spillover effect. In a clear break with traditional patterns, net inmigration contributed significantly to overall population gain and was particularly strong among counties without an urban center. The rate of natural increase continued to slow in the post-1970 period, with natural decrease becoming common among counties with protracted histories of population decline.
A Mathematical Model Relating Cohort and Period Mortality
Authors: Eng Jamie Pearl
Published: March 2007

This paper presents a mathematical model for changing mortality in functional form. This model may be used to obtain cohort forces of mortality and cohort survivorship functions from a period force of mortality and a period life table under conditions of gradually changing mortality if an estimate of the amount of change in mortality is available. An example is given to show how the cohort functions are derived from the period functions.
Race differences in age at first birth and the pace of subsequent fertility: Implications for the minority group status hypothesis
Authors: St. John Craig
Published: March 2007

We examine race differences in the effects of age at first birth on the pace of subsequent fertility. If race differences in the pace of fertility persist net of age at first birth and socioeconomic variables, they will be taken as new support for the minority group status hypothesis. Data from the 1973 National Survey of Family Growth are analyzed with the finding that race differences in the pace of fertility are real, giving support to the hypothesis. Implications are drawn suggesting that the proper points at which to examine group differences in fertility are the different stages in the process which culminates in completed fertility, rather than limiting investigation to the final product.
What’s happening to the age at first birth in the United States? A study of recent cohorts
Authors: Bloom David E.
Published: March 2007

This paper analyzes cross-cohort trends in the age pattern of women at first birth in the United States. The analysis involves fitting the Coale-McNeil marriage model to the age distribution of first birth frequencies for a number of recent white and nonwhite cohorts. Methodologically, the results (a) provide support for the application of the Coale-McNeil marriage model to first birth data, and (b) demonstrate the ability of the model to accurately project first birth fertility for cohorts which have yet to complete their childbearing years. Substantively the results indicate (a) that the proportion of women who will never have a first birth is increasing across cohorts and can be expected to be as high as .25 and .20 for recent white and nonwhite cohorts respectively; (b) that recent nonwhite cohorts have an appreciable number of first births at earlier ages than their white counterparts, as well as a lower mean age at first birth and increasingly less dispersion (across cohorts) in their age at first birth; and (c) that the mean age at first birth and the proportion of first births occurring between ages 25 and 34 is increasing across cohorts of white women but is stable across cohorts of nonwhite women.
Post-neonatal mortality in Rural India: Implications of an economic model
Authors: Simmons George B. , Smucker Celeste , Bernstein Stan , Jensen Eric
Published: March 2007

In this paper we develop and test a theory of childhood mortality after the first month of life. Parents are assumed to have well-defined family size and sex composition objectives and to face severe budget constraints. In this set of circumstances, it is understandable that they will make allocative decisions that will affect the survival probabilities of children. These decisions and the environmental influences on mortality are the basic forces which determine whether a child will survive through the post-neonatal period. The model is tested with survey data from rural Uttar Pradesh, India. The results are consistent with the hypothetical framework discussed above. The burden of this pattern of choice is felt particularly strongly by female births.
The impact of international migration upon the timing of marriage and childbearing
Authors: Carlson Elwood D.
Published: March 2007

Experiences of 1500 native-born Australians and 1000 foreign-born immigrants to Australia, surveyed in Melbourne in 1971, reveal that immigration delayed marriage for migrants arriving between age 15 and marriage, and delayed first, second, third and fourth births for immigrants arriving during each birth interval. This migration effect was clearly finite in its influence, affecting only proximate vital events rather than persisting through several successive events. The temporary nature of the migration effect highlights the adaptability of international migrants.
Marriage and divorce in twentieth century American cohorts
Authors: Schoen Robert , Urton William , Woodrow Karen , Bai John
Published: March 2007

The significance of recent changes in marriage and divorce in the United States is examined from a cohort perspective. Marital status life tables, following birth cohorts through life and through the statuses of Never Married, Presently Married, Widowed, and Divorced provide a detailed description of the experience of male and female cohorts born 1888–1950. Recent cohorts show a clear reversal of previous trends toward earlier and more universal marriage. There has been a steady rise in divorce, with 46 percent of male and 42 percent of female marriages expected to end in divorce for the cohort born in 1950.
The Determinants of Breast-Feeding in Sri Lanka
Authors: Akin John , Bilsborrow Richard , Guilkey David , Popkin Barry M. , Benoit Daniel , Cantrelle Pierre , Garenne Michele , Levi Pierre
Published: March 2007

Breast-feeding is the focus of rapidly growing interest. Research on the determinants of breast-feeding is only beginning. The research in this paper is based on World Fertility Survey data for Sri Lanka. We develop what we believe to be an appropriate probit model and find that there are significant socioeconomic factors that influence breast-feeding, in addition to the demographic factors focused upon in the literature. Moreover, some of them have clear policy implications, which are elaborated herein with respect to labor force, education, family planning and internal migration policies. In the course of the paper we also address a number of generally neglected statistical issues that should be considered in analyzing the determinants of breastfeeding, including problems resulting from digit preference or age heaping, the need to use dichotomous dependent variables, unavoidable truncation biases in the basic data, and structural shifts in the determinants of breastfeeding at different durations.
Negativism, Equivocation, and Wobbly Assent: Public “Support” for the Prochoice Platform on Abortion
Authors: Blake Judith , Del Pinal Jorge H.
Published: March 2007

Although disapproval of all justifications for abortion is rare in the United States, our analysis of numerous surveys taken in the 1960s and 1970s shows that support for the full prochoice platform is also rare. This means that respondents who endorse some justifications for abortion and reject others typically constitute about 50 percent of these samples. If forced to choose politically between polar positions, would these people be more likely to side with a positive or a negative extreme? Using Multiple Classification Analysis as a form of discriminant analysis, we examine whether people who appear to form a “middle” group actually are closer in their characteristics to those who are positive, or to those who are negative. Finally, we test to see whether those respondents who endorse all four justifications for abortion (health, child defect, financial stress, and elective abortion) also endorse additional prochoice positions, such as government payments for abortion, abortion without the husband’s or the parent’s consent, and abortion after the first trimester.
Postwar Trends in Family Size
Authors: Treas Judith
Published: March 2007

Recognizing that postwar trends in family size derive both from changes in the living arrangements of adults and from changes in the presence of children, this paper develops annual estimates of mean family size, mean members less than 18, and mean members 18 and older by race, by family type, and by age of head. Group differences in the course and source of changes in family size are evident as anticipated on the basis of group differences in family structure, economic resources and life cycle stage.
Sex Differences in Remarriage and Spouse Selection
Authors: Chamie Joseph , Nsuly Samar
Published: March 2007

This paper explores on an international basis the incidence of remarriage among total marriages, the levels and differences in remarriage rates among widowed and divorced males and females, and differences between males and females in spouse selection according to the previous marital statuses of spouse and bride or groom. Remarriage rates by sex and previous marital status are estimated using vital registration data in combination with census information; there are 47 countries that have such data. The results of the analyses indicate that there are a number of general patterns of remarriage and spouse selection that tend to hold across countries.
Age Misstatement for Young Children in Rural Bangladesh
Authors: Bairagi R. , Aziz K. M. A. , Chowdhury M. K. , Edmonston B.
Published: March 2007

Age data for 3,393 children, six years of age and under, in rural Bangladesh are analyzed for the level and pattern of age misstatement. Random error, age heaping at whole years, and preferences for particular ages are found in the data. Variation in age reporting is discovered to increase monotonically with age. Systematic errors in age misstatement display modest overstatement for the first four years of life and more pronounced understatement for ages 4, 5, and 6.

Age misstatement is examined for its effect on one indicator often used in nutritional surveillance—weight-for-age of children. The impact of the various types of age misstatement (a) increases the difficulty of interpreting weight-for-age and (b) obscures accurate understanding of malnutrition in Bangladeshi children.
American Family Building Strategies in 1900: Stopping or Spacing
Authors: Tolnay Stewart E. , Guest Avery M.
Published: March 2007

Contemporary populations frequently space the births of children, and also attempt to stop childbearing after achieving a desired family size. While stopping behavior was evident in European populations in the late nineteenth century, little is known about the degree to which they attempted to space their children at specific interval lengths. This paper compares spacing patterns among various groups of white U.S. women in 1900, who were distinguished by varying family sizes and levels offertility control. On the whole, there is little evidence of childspacing differences among native white populations, except for some very low parity women. The findings support the continued analysis of age patterns of fertility as the major means for determining the onset of conscious family limitation.
Religion and fertility: A replication
Authors: Mosher William D. , Hendershot Gerry E.
Published: March 2007

Jones and Westoff (1979) reported a study offertility trends among white women in intact first marriages. They found that the fertility of white Catholic and non-Catholic wives was converging. The differential had all but disappeared, as had the differential by frequency of communion among Catholic wives. We replicated their study using data from the 1976 National Survey of Family Growth. We found that the fertility of the two religious groups was indeed converging, but the Catholic-non-Catholic differential was larger than that found by Jones and Westoff—how much larger depends on what measure is used. Moreover, we found that the differential by frequency of communion among Catholic wives was not converging. Possible explanations of the apparent differences in the findings are discussed.
Social determinants of low birth weight in a high-risk population
Authors: Carlson Elwood D.
Published: March 2007

Over ninety low-weight infants were born per thousand live births in South Carolina, based on 96,000 birth records from 1975 and 1979. Higher incidence of low birth weight for black infants cannot be explained away as a result of black/white differences in age or education of mothers, prenatal care, parity or length of birth intervals. Though all these factors are important predictors of birth weight, an increasing propensity to have low-weight babies persists among black mothers even after all these factors are controlled.
Mortality estimation from registered deaths in less developed countries
Authors: Bennett Neil G. , Horiuchi Shiro
Published: March 2007

Age-specific population growth rates were introduced to demographic analysis in earlier work by Bennett and Horiuchi (1981) and Preston and Coale (1982). In this paper, we derive a method which uses these growth rates to transform what may be a set of incompletely recorded deaths by age into a life table that accurately reflects the true mortality experience of the population under study. The method does not rely on the assumption of stability and, for example, in contrast to intercensal cohort survival techniques, is simple to implement when presented with nontraditional intercensal interval lengths. Thus we can obtain mortality estimates for less developed countries with defective data, despite departures from stability. Further, we assess the sensitivity of the method to violations in various assumptions underlying the procedure: error in estimated growth rates, existence of non-zero net intercensal migration, age dependence in the completeness of death registration, and misreporting of age at death and age in the population. We demonstrate the use of the method in an application to data referring to Argentine females during the period 1960 to 1970.
Mismatch between occupation and schooling: A prevalence measure, recent trends and demographic analysis
Authors: Clogg Clifford C. , Shockey James W.
Published: March 2007

This paper deals with the mismatch between occupation and schooling attainment, the imbalance between occupation-specific demand for labor and schooling-level-specific labor supply. A framework for measuring the prevalence of mismatch is given, and a simple index derived from it gives plausible results and robust inferences about differentials and time trend. This approach can be applied to existing data, yields comprehensive and current social indicators, and can be used with a minimum number of assumptions. Trends for the U.S. labor force over the 1969–1980 interval are examined. Results show that there has been a dramatic and general increase in mismatch prevalence. Various demographic explanations of mismatch trends are examined.
Determining the Impact of Sex Preferences on Fertility: A Demonstration Study
Authors: Widmer Kathy R. , McClelland Gary H. , Nickerson Carol A.
Published: March 2007

The stopping rule measure of sex preferences represents a combination of psychological measures of preference and behavioral intentions. This study of 172 college students demonstrates that the stopping rule measure is a useful and practical method of measuring sex preferences. The results further indicate that parity progression ratio measures inherently underestimate the effect of sex preferences on individual fertility because they incorrectly assume that sex preferences (a) are homogeneous within the population and (b) can only act to increase, not to decrease, fertility. Use of the stopping rule measure to predict the possible effects of sex preselection techniques on fertility is also discussed.
Trends and Differentials in Breast Feeding: An Update
Authors: Hirschman Charles , Butler Marilyn
Published: March 2007

Analysis of the 1973 National Survey of Family Growth shows a continued downward trend in breast feeding by successive cohorts of American mothers. The downward trend is evident in both measures of incidence (ever-breast feeding) and duration of breast feeding for first and higher-order births. For all cohorts higher-order births are less likely to be breast fed than first births. However, breast feeding of higher-order births is typically of a longer duration. Differentials in breast feeding reveal strong associations with indicators of social class; women who are college graduates, who work as professionals, and who are married to professional husbands are most likely to breast-feed their infants. Differentials in average duration of breast feeding are often reversed from differentials in ever-breast feeding.
Migrant-Native Socioeconomic Differentials in Thailand
Authors: Fuller Theodore D.
Published: March 2007

Recent research has suggested that the position of many urban migrants compares favorably with that of urban natives. This generalization is refined by referring to three key distinctions: migrants from rural versus urban origins, recent versus more experienced cityward migrants, and type of urban destination. In Thailand in the early 1970s, migrants to smaller urban centers, especially the more experienced migrants, are economically more successful than migrants to the large metropolitan centers and in some cases are more successful than urban natives. Reasons for this pattern are discussed.
Return and Other Sequences of Migration in the United States
Authors: DaVanzo Julie S. , Morrison Peter A.
Published: March 2007

We examine repeat migration sequences in the United States especially those that entail a return, using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Our guiding hypotheses derive from the concepts of location-specific capital and imperfect information. Descriptive analysis elucidates the dynamics, tempo, and differential frequency of repeat migration among various socioeconomic groups. Results disclose differences among migrants who choose to return or move onward to a new location, or do not move again, and lend support to our analytical framework. Major findings are: (1) the propensity to return to an area varies directly with the amount of locationspecific capital that is left behind and inversely with the ex-resident’s length of absence, (2) which repeat migration sequence unfolds—return or onward—depends on the ex-resident’s educational level and experience of unemployment.
Employment Deconcentration in the Nonmetropolitan Migration Turnaround
Authors: Wardwell John M. , Gilchrist C. Jack
Published: March 2007

Since 1970, metropo1itan-to-nonmetropo1itan migration has substantially exceeded the corresponding and historically greater stream of migrants from nonmetropolitan to metropolitan areas. Previous research has concentrated on the changes in retirement mobility, growth of recreation and tourism, and residential preferences responsible in part for the new trends in population distribution. Relatively less attention has been paid to the corresponding phenomenon of the deconcentration of persons who remain actively engaged in the labor force. This research uses data from the Continuous Work History Sample merged with a file of county characteristics to examine trends in location of employed workers from 1960 to 1975. The analyses document changes of county of employment that parallel the trends in general population mobility. The CWHS data show increased movement of employed workers out of the largest SMSAs and into the smaller SMSAs and into both adjacent and nonadjacent nonmetropolitan counties. These data also indicate that the rate of change is greatest for nonadjacent counties. Both increased metropolitan outmovement and decreased nonmetropolitan outmovement are significant in producing the observed net changes.
Homicide Trends in the United States
Authors: Farley Reynolds
Published: March 2007

Unlike most other causes of death, homicide has been increasing in the United States, especially since the mid-1960s. Its impact is greatest among nonwhite men. The elimination of homicide would add approximately one and one-half years to their life span. This analysis examines trends and differentials using vital statistics data about homicide victims. A decomposition of components of change reveals that almost all of the rise in homicide mortality among nonwhites and a substantial fraction of the rise among whites results from the increasing use of firearms to kill people.
Mortality of the Chronically Impaired
Authors: Manton Kenneth G. , Stallard Eric
Published: March 2007

An analysis of the effects of diabetes and generalized atherosclerosis on death due to ischemic heart disease or stroke was conducted using multiple cause mortality statistics. Specifically, all U.S. deaths in 1969 were classified into two groups on the basis of whether diabetes or generalized atherosclerosis was mentioned anywhere on the death certificate. Then race and sex specific analyses were made of ischemic heart disease deaths (or alternately of stroke deaths) using modified life table techniques for each group (one with the specified chronic disease and one without). Comparisons were made of mortality due to the acute circulatory events (ischemic heart disease or stroke) in the two groups to determine the implications of the chronic disease for the progression of the circulatory disease events. It was found, according to expectations, that diabetes and generalized atherosclerosis play very different roles in deaths due to stroke and ischemic heart disease.
Child support and welfare dependence: A multinomial logit analysis
Authors: Robins Philip K. , Dickinson Katherine P.
Published: March 2007

The relation between welfare dependency and receipt of child support is investigated with data from a special supplement to the Current Population Survey. The impact of receiving child support on a family’s welfare status is estimated and the types of families for which child support enforcement policies may have the great est impact are identified. Overall, the results indicate that receipt of child support has a modest impact on reducing welfare dependency. However, the results also indicate that if child support obligations can be established and enforced shortly after a marital dissolution takes place, the likelihood that a family will later become a welfare recipient is significantly reduced.
An evaluation of the population and development program in Egypt
Authors: Stycos J. Mayone , Sayed Hussein Abdel-Aziz , Avery Roger
Published: March 2007

Previous rural surveys analyzing the impact of the Egyptian Population and Development Program on KAP variables (knowledge, attitudes, and practices of contraception) have produced mixed results. In 1982 a survey specifically designed to measure program impact contained refinements in questionnaire measurement, sampling, and analysis. Each refinement intensified the apparent program impact. Fertility itself still appears unresponsive, and attitudes toward family size have changed little, but marked differences between program and nonprogram areas in contraceptive knowledge, attitudes, and practice suggest imminent fertility declines in program areas.
The incidence of divorce within cohorts of American marriages contracted since the civil war
Authors: Preston Samuel H. , McDonald John
Published: March 2007

The proportion of marriages that end in divorce can be estimated from vital registration or from census data. The former source suggests considerably higher levels of divorce than does the latter. A new series, combining the two sources, is presented for annual marriage cohorts back to 1867. Actual experience to 1970 is traced and a projection beyond that point is made for cohorts with incomplete divorce histories. The cohort divorce series moves steadily upwards and shows much less variability than an equivalent series of period divorce rates. Factors related to high divorce within a cohort are armed service mobilization and high unemployment rates in the year of marriage, and slow national economic growth between pre- and post-marital periods.
The changing U. S. labor force and occupational differentiation by sex
Authors: Williams Gregory
Published: March 2007

The degree of occupational differentiation by sex in the U.S. labor force is examined utilizing various measures and occupational classifications over the period 1900–1970. A consideration of comparable occupations over time indicates that while occupational differentiation by sex is still substantial, an irregular, measurable decline in that differentiation has occurred during this century. Existing labor force structure seems relatively unimportant in explaining this ongoing change. Apparently more significant are social and historical factors as they have influenced specific occupations in certain decades.
Earnings, Relative Income, and Family Formation
Authors: MacDonald Maurice M. , Rindfuss Ronald R.
Published: March 2007

The probability of first marriage for men who graduated from Wisconsin high schools in 1957 was analyzed with respect to their Social Security earnings records, Wisconsin income tax reports for parents, and other variables. The findings provide no support for Easterlin's hypothesis that marriage will occur earlier when young men judge their economic prospects favorably with respect to their parents' income. However, young men's earnings and time spent in schooling to increase them were found to be important influences on marriage timing. Additional schooling had little effect net of the time it absorbed.
Alaska Native Fertility Trends, 1950–1978
Authors: Blackwood Larry
Published: March 2007

Fertility rates for Alaska Natives based on officially registered births have shown considerable change since 1950, reflecting the increasing incorporation of this group into the dominant American culture. Their fertility experience has in many regards been similar to that of developing countries during the process of modernization. A gradual rise in fertility prior to 1962 was most likely the result of increased fecundity due to declining breast feeding. The rapid decline after that time is seen as a response to increasing incentives for fertility control. The decline was facilitated by the beginning of family planning programs in 1965.
Experiments in Modelling Recent Danish Fertility Curves
Authors: Hoem Jan M. , Madsen Dan , Nielsen Jørgen Løvgreen , Ohlsen Else-Marie , Hansen Hans Oluf , Rennermalm Bo
Published: March 2007

This paper reports the outcome of an exercise in curve fitting to annual sets of Danish age-specific fertility rates for the years 1962 to 1971 by means of least squares. Functions fitted were a cubic spline, the Hadwiger and Coale-Trussell functions, the gamma and beta densities, two versions of a polynomial, and two of Brass's relational procedures, as well as the Gompertz curve. The spline function fitted all curves far better than any of the others. The Coale-Trussell procedure and gamma density were about equal, followed by the Hadwiger function. All of these functions fit the data well. One of the polynomials fit reasonably well, but the rest of the functions were less accurate.
Some Further Observations on the Index of Residential Differentiation
Authors: Morgan Barrie S. , Norbury John
Published: March 2007

The relationship between the index of residential differentiation (RDI), a recently introduced measure of residential segregation which is designed to summarize the distribution of c social groups in a single index, and the indices of dissimilarity (D) and segregation (SI) is examined. It is demonstrated that RDI is a natural extension of D, and that when c = 2, RDI = D; when c> 2, it is possible to stipulate RDI in terms of SI, but it is not possible to stipulate RDI in a straightforward manner in terms of D. An adjusted RDI is then suggested in which random segregation rather than complete desegregation is used as the baseline.
Changes in the propensity to live alone: Evidence from consecutive cross-sectional surveys, 1960–1976
Authors: Pampel Fred C.
Published: March 2007

The rise in the proportion of single persons living alone in the United States over the last several decades has been explained in two ways. A consumer demand explanation suggests that increases in income and the ability of persons to afford the desired privacy and autonomy of single person households account for the rise. An alternative explanation suggests that norms, residence rules, and tastes have become more supportive of nonfamilial living arrangements in post-industrial societies and that the proportion of persons living alone would have increased substantially even if income had not risen. Previous evidence for these explanations comes from cross-sectional or aggregate data; this paper tests alternative predictions of the explanations using individual-level survey data from three time points—1960, 1970, and 1976. In contrast to predictions of the consumer demand explanation, the results show that major increases in the proportion of single persons living alone are unexplained by increases in income and other individual-level characteristics of respondents. Although the effect of income on living alone has been constant over time, the existence of significant additive effects of time is consistent with alternative explanations of structural changes in propensity to live alone.
Some models of agreement and disagreement in repeated measurements of occupation
Authors: Hauser Robert M. , Massagli Michael P.
Published: March 2007

Measures used by the U.S. Bureau of the Census to assay misclassification and correct marginal distributions—the net difference rate and the index of inconsistency—may produce misleading results and do not fully use information about inconsistency in repeated measurements. We show how multiplicative models of classifications of repeated measurements can be used to locate sources of inconsistency in marginal classifications, sources of discrepancies in classification, and differences between categories in levels of agreement and disagreement. The models are illustrated with an occupational classification from the 1970 CPS-Census Match. Some of our results differ from those reported earlier by the Bureau of the Census.
A theoretical analysis of antecedents of young couples’ fertility decisions and outcomes
Authors: Beckman Linda J. , Aizenberg Rhonda , Forsythe Alan B. , Day Tom
Published: March 2007

Longitudinal survey data from 509 couples who at Time 1 interview had recently married or had their first child did not support the hypothesis that demographic factors influence fertility intentions, decisions, and outcomes only indirectly through their effects on attitudes and motivations. Husbands’ and wives’ attitudes exerted reciprocal influence on one another. However, while husbands’ sex-role traditionalism and motivation for parenthood strongly influenced wives’ traditionalism and motivation in the case of recently married couples, this pattern was reversed for riew parents. Birth control use was directly affected by wives’ fertility intentions, but not by husbands’ intentions. Difficulties in examining couple interaction variables such as relative power and the possible limitations of fitting these data to a complex theoretical model using LISREL are discussed.
Mortality Trends in Philadelphia: Age- and Cause-Specific Death Rates 1870–1930
Authors: Condran Gretchen A. , Cheney Rose A.
Published: March 2007

This article examines the decline in mortality which occurred in Philadelphia in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. Age- and cause-specific mortality rates accounting for the decline are isolated and the relative importance of several variables in explaining the reduction of overall mortality levels is assessed. By using small areas within the city we are able to establish the impact of particular innovations on specific causes of death.
Fertility and income, consumption aspirations, and child quality standards
Authors: Thornton Arland
Published: March 2007

Data from a 1975 national survey of the American population were used to investigate the relationships between childbearing and aspirations for consumption goods, child quality standards, and income. The data were consistent with the hypothesis that preferences for child quality are negatively related to fertility. Aspirations for consumer goods which are related to the home were not found to be negatively related to childbearing while aspirations for nonhome goods were negatively related to fertility as hypothesized. Several indicators of income and, subjective economic well-being were examined, and the overall pattern of results was not supportive of the hypothesized effect of income on fertility.