Eleven Years of Change: Disease Progression in Biomarker-Defined Sporadic Parkinson’s Disease
Authors: Gonzalez-Latapi Paulina , Gochanour Caroline , Cho Hyunkeun , Ho Choi Seung , Caspell-Garcia Chelsea , Coffey Christopher , Brumm Michael , Lafontant David-Erick , Xiao Yuge , Tanner Caroline , Venuto Charles S. , Kieburtz Karl , Chahine Lana M. , Poston Kathleen L , Siderowf Andrew , Marek Ken , Simuni Tanya 
Published: October 2024

Long-term longitudinal data on outcomes in sporadic Parkinson’s Disease are limited, especially from cohorts with extensive biological characterization. Recent advances in biomarkers characterization of Parkinson’s Disease necessitate an updated examination of long-term progression within contemporary cohorts like the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative, which enrolled individuals within 2 years of clinical diagnosis of Parkinson’s Disease. Our study leverages the Neuronal Synuclein Disease framework, which defines the disease based on biomarker assessed presence of neuronal alpha-synuclein and dopamine deficit, rather than based on conventional clinical diagnostic criteria. In this study we aimed to provide a comprehensive long-term description of disease progression using the integrated biological and clinical staging system framework.

We analyzed data from 344 participants from the sporadic Parkinson’s Disease cohort in the Parkinson’s Progression Markers Initiative, who met Neuronal Synuclein Disease criteria. We assessed 11-year progression in a spectrum of clinical measures. We used Cox proportional hazards models to assess the association between baseline stage and time to key outcomes, including survival, postural instability (Hoehn & Yahr ≥ 3), loss of independence (Schwab & England < 80%), cognitive decline, and domain-based milestones such as walking and balance, motor complications, autonomic dysfunction, and activities of daily living. Additional analyses were completed to account for death and participant dropout. Biomarker analysis included dopamine transporter binding measures, as well as serum urate, neurofilament light chain and CSF amyloid-beta, phosphorylated tau and total tau.

At baseline, despite the cohort consisting of individuals within 2 years of clinical diagnosis, there was clear separation of participants in Neuronal Synuclein Disease Stages (23% Stage 2b, 67% Stage 3, 10% Stage 4). At 11 years, data were available for 153 participants; 35 participants had died over the follow up period. Of retained participants, 59% presented normal cognition, 24% had evidence of postural instability and mean Schwab & England score was 78.5. Serum neurofilament light chain consistently increased over time. No other biofluids had a consistent change in trajectory. Of importance, baseline Neuronal Synuclein Disease Stage predicted progression to clinically meaningful milestones.

This study provides data on longitudinal, 11-year progression in Neuronal Synuclein Disease participants within 2 years of clinical diagnosis. We observed better long-term outcomes in this contemporary observational study cohort. It highlights the heterogeneity in the early Parkinson’s Disease population as defined by clinical diagnostic criteria and underscores the importance of shifting from clinical to biologically and functionally based inclusion criteria in the design of new clinical trials.