Global estimation of ionospheric drivers during extreme storms
Authors: Lopez Rubio Aurora , Datta-Barua Seebany , Bust Gary 
Published: March 2021

&lt;p&gt;During geomagnetic storms, the space environment can be drastically altered as the plasma in the upper atmosphere, or ionosphere, moves globally. This plasma redistribution is mainly caused by storm-time electric fields, but another important driver of the velocity of the ions in the plasma is the neutral winds. These winds refer to the movement of the neutral particles that are part of the thermospheric layer of the atmosphere, that can drag the plasma. Geomagnetic storms increase the neutral winds, due to the heating of the thermosphere that comes from the storm. In this study we want to understand how these ionospheric drivers affect the ionosphere behavior because, among other reasons, during geomagnetic storms the plasma can refract and diffract trans-ionospheric signals and, consequently, can cause problems in the navigation systems such as GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System)/GPS (Global Positioning System) that use the information from the signals.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;In this work, our objective is to estimate the electric fields and neutral winds globally during a geomagnetic storm. Global GNSS TEC (total electron content) measurements are ingested by the Ionospheric Data Assimilation 4-Dimensional (IDA4D) algorithm [1], whose output is the electron density rate over a grid at different time steps during a geomagnetic storm. The density rates are treated as &amp;#8220;observations&amp;#8221; in EMPIRE (Estimating Model Parameters from Ionospheric Reverse Engineering), which is a data assimilation algorithm based on the plasma continuity equation [2,3,4]. Then, the EMPIRE &amp;#8220;observations&amp;#8221; are used to estimate corrections to the electric field and neutral winds by solving a Kalman filter. To study these drivers with EMPIRE, basis functions are used to describe them. For the global potential field, spherical harmonics are used.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;To have a global estimation of the neutral winds, we introduce vector spherical harmonics as the basis function for the first time in EMPIRE. The vector spherical harmonics are used to model orthogonal components of neutral wind in the zonal (east-west) and meridional (north-south) directions. EMPIRE&amp;#8217;s Kalman filter needs the error covariance of the vector spherical harmonics decomposition. To calculate it, the basis function is fitted to the model HWM14 (Horizonal Wind Model) values of the neutral winds and the error between the fitting and the model is studied. Later, we study the global potential field and global neutral winds over time to understand how much each driver contributes to the plasma redistribution during the geomagnetic storm on October 25&lt;sup&gt;th&lt;/sup&gt; 2011. We compare the results to FPI (Fabry-Perot Interferometer) neutral winds measurements to validate the results.&amp;#160; &amp;#160;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;[1] G.S.Bust, G.Crowley, T.W.Garner, T.L.G.II, R.W.Meggs, C.N.Mitchell, P.S.J.Spencer, P.Yin, and B.Zapfe, Four-dimensional gps imaging of space weather storms, Space Weather, 5 (2007),&amp;#160; doi:10.1029/2006SW000237.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;[2] D.S.Miladinovich, S.Datta-Barua, G.S.Bust, and J.J.Makela, Assimilation of thermospheric measurements for ionosphere-thermosphere state estimation, Radio Science, 51 (2016).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;[3] D.S.Miladinovich, S.Datta-Barua, A.Lopez, S. Zhang, and G.S.Bust, Assimilation of gnss measurements for estimation of high-latitude convection processes, Space Weather, 18 (2020).&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;[4] G.S.Bust and S.Datta-Barua, Scientific investigations using ida4d and empire, in Modeling the Ionosphere-Thermosphere System, J. Huba, R. Schunk, and G. Khazanov, eds., John Wiley &amp; Sons, Ltd, 1 ed., 2014.&lt;/p&gt;