bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Methylated genes as potential biomarkers in prostate cancer
Authors: Phé Veronique , Cussenot Olivier , Rouprêt Morgan
Published: January 2010

Prostate cancer is the most common malignancy of the urogenital tract. Although controversial, prostate‐specific antigen (PSA) testing is widely used for screening and follow‐up of prostate cancer, but because of its limited specificity and sensitivity, PSA is not an ideal test. We currently lack the necessary tools to differentiate between latent disease with little likelihood of clinical manifestation and aggressive tumours that are likely to metastasize and lead to potentially lethal disease. DNA methylation is an important epigenetic mechanism of gene regulation and plays essential roles in tumour initiation and progression. Currently, aberrant promoter hypermethylation has been investigated in specific genes from the following groups: tumour‐suppressor genes, proto‐oncogenes, genes involved in cell adhesion, and genes involved in cell‐cycle regulation. Glutathione S‐transferase P1 (GSTP1) has been shown to be a biomarker for prostate cancer. Other genes, e.g. CD44, PTGS2, E‐cadherin, CDH13, and cyclin D2 have been found to be prognostic markers for prostate cancer. In cell samples derived from the urine, the presence of the hypermethylation of either GSTP1 or RASS1a has been shown to be both sensitive and specific for detecting prostate cancer. Several studies have found that analysis of hypermethylation using a panel of tumour‐suppressor genes yielded better results for detecting prostate cancer than the analysis of single‐gene methylation. Hence, these different panels (e.g. GSTP1, APC, PTGS2, T1G1 and EDNRB) are of interest for detecting prostate cancer. Also, the methylation profile of multiple regulatory genes might be altered at the time of cancer relapse. Thus, preliminary results on the use of the methylation status of specific genes as potential tumour biomarkers for the early diagnosis and the risk stratification of patients with prostate cancer are promising.
Impact of a novel, extended approach of perineal radical prostatectomy on surgical margins in localized prostate cancer
Authors: Inoue Shogo , Shiina Hiroaki , Sumura Masahiro , Urakami Shinji , Matsubara Akio , Igawa Mikio
Published: January 2010

Study Type – Therapy (case series) Level of Evidence 4

OBJECTIVE

To validate the rationale of extended perineal radical prostatectomy (ePRP) for treating localized prostate cancer.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Between December 2000 and May 2007, 196 patients with localized prostate cancer underwent PRP, among which 91 and 105 patients were treated with conventional PRP (cPRP) and ePRP, respectively. The apex, middle, base, and anterior regions of the prostate were separately analysed, and the focus of analysis was on the distribution, size, Gleason score, and positive surgical margins (PSMs) of prostate cancer foci.

RESULTS

The operation time was significantly shorter in ePRP compared with cPRP (161 min vs 188 min; P= 0.001), while there was no significant difference in estimated blood loss between cPRP and ePRP (550 mL vs 500 mL). At the apex and base, there was no significant difference in the PSM rate between cPRP and ePRP. In the middle, there was a lower incidence of PSMs in ePRP (2.4%) than in cPRP (10.9%; P= 0.009). On the anterior side, PSMs were more frequent in cPRP (21.6%) than in ePRP (7.1%; P= 0.029). Logistic regression analysis adjusted by PSA level showed that PSM rate was the most significantly affected by the surgical approach.

CONCLUSION

We think that ePRP provides an effective treatment strategy for localized prostate cancer in light of excellent cancer control and minimum potential of surgical invasiveness.
ARE THERE ADVERSE INFLATION EFFECTS ASSOCIATED WITH NATURAL GAS DECONTROL?
Authors: OTT MACK , TATOM JOHN A.
Published: January 2010

The Natural Gas Policy Act (NGPA) will decontrol gas prices in 1985, and there is concern about its inflation and output effects. In this investigation of these concerns, two misapprehensions are remedied. First, inflation is primarily a monetary phenomenon so that a rise in energy prices affects the price level, but any impact on inflation is temporary. Second, while analyses of NGPA have assumed that the price of gas will achieve parity with petroleum, they have neglected decontrol's effect on OPEC's optimal price, Our estimates of the decontrol effect demonstrate that energy prices will fall, not rise
THE STRUCTURE OF THE FINANCIAL SERVICES INDUSTRY
Authors: LAUB P. MICHAEL , HOFFMAN CHARLES F.
Published: January 2010

Since most studies of the financial services industry have viewed the structure of the industry as fixed, there has been little discussion of its determinants. Events of the past few years make it clear that the structure of the financial services industry is changing much more rapidly than it did between the end of World War II and the mid 1960's. This paper categorizes and discusses the major factors affecting the structure of the financial services industry. The concept of supply and demand provides a useful framework for categorizing these factors. Demand is best analyzed in terms of the demand for various characteristics or attributes of financial services. These include: 1) yield; 2) liquidity; 3) safety; 4) convenience of access to the services, 5) financial advice or information. The demand for these various characteristics or attributes depends importantly on demographic and economic factors

The supply of financial services is determined by the cost curves associated with those services which are in turn determined by the cost of the factors of production and the underlying production function. Three aspects of these cost curves have an important effect on the supply of financial services and the structure of the industry — economies of scale, economies of joint production and distribution, and the management of risk. The nature of the cost and production functions underlying the supply of financial services and the structure of the industry is affected by several exogenous factors. Foremost among them are the economy, technology, regulation, and the role of the Federal government in financial service markets

Based on the discussion of how the various exogenous factors affect the structure of the financial services industry, an attempt is made to predict how structure will change as deregulation occurs.
SOCIAL SECURITY AND LABOR SUPPLY INCENTIVES
Authors: H. GORDON ROGER
Published: January 2010

Many provisions of the Social Security program distort an individual's labor supply incentives. In particular, the payroll tax, the earnings test, the offsetting actuarial adjustment, and the dependence of the size of future benefits on the level of current earnings all affect the net return to extra work. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the size of the net tax rate on labor income in a variety of circumstances, taking into account all these provisions, as well as the personal income tax. We find that the Social Security Program on net in the past has provided a large subsidy to labor supply, which for many people effectively offset the personal income tax. This subsidy rate, however, has been declining steadily over time
POLITICS AND THE NEW RESOURCE ECONOMICS
Authors: SIMMONS RANDY T. , MITCHELL WILLIAM C.
Published: January 2010

Two competing theories generally used, at least implicitly, to justify and analyze public resource management are scientific management and pluralism. We briefly review these theories and compare them to the new resource economics, an emerging body of theory which revises resource economics by introducing concepts from Austrian economics, property rights theory, and public choice. We argue that the new resource economics is superior to these traditional theories and then present specific policy proposals for the national forests, wilderness areas, and the public grazing lands. We also criticize new resource economists for not clearly distinguishing ideology from science, for emphasizing efficiency as a criterion for policy analysis, and for lacking political strategies for implementing their proposals
TALL TREES, PEOPLE, AND POLITICS: THE OPPORTUNITY COSTS OF THE REDWOOD NATIONAL PARK
Authors: WALKER JOHN L.
Published: January 2010

Because individuals in the marketplace directly face opportunity costs, they must balance marginal costs against marginal benefits. In contrast, in politics, the opportunity costs facing decision makers are diluted. Estimates of the social costs of various public programs are generally understated, while the estimates of social benefits are exaggerated

This paper places the establishment and expansion of the Redwood National Park within this framework and analyzes it as a public investment decision. It is shown that in the initial creation of the Redwood National Park in 1968, the costs of land acquisition and employment loss were underestimated, while the projections for gains in tourism were excessive. Despite the opposition of local landowners and residents, the Park was further expanded 10 years later in 1978. There was again a misstatement of costs and benefits and also the creation of an expensive new entitlement program to defuse the opposition of labor

The experience with the redwood National Park illustrates the results of the political process, which allows decision makers to internalize benefits and externalize costs. Emotion and rhetoric tend to displace a careful weighing of marginal costs and benefits
HOUSING AND HOUSING FINANCE IN AN ERA OF INFLATION AND DISINFLATION: INTRODUCTION
Authors: WEICHER JOHN C.
Published: January 2010

So far, the 1980s have been the decade of disinflation in the housing market. The United States has experienced four remarkable years during which house prices have declined in real terms, and, at least in some markets, in nominal terms as well. At the same time, mortgage interest rates have risen to unprecedented levels, and the housing finance system has experienced extraordinary stresses, which are contributing to a remarkably rapid process of fundamental structural change. This comes immediately after a 15‐year period of variable, but persistent and accelerating inflation, culminating in a speculative housing boom from 1977 to 1979.
NEGLECTED WOMEN AND OTHER IMPLICATIONS OF COMPARABLE WORTH
Authors: OI WALTER Y.
Published: January 2010

Comparable worth proposals presume that the gender wage gap is a result of occupational segregation. The proposals argue that females are channeled into “women's jobs” and that overcrowding depresses women's wages below the “value” of the work performed. Comparable worth legislation proposes replacing the idea of equal pay for equal work with a principle of equal pay for different work of comparable worth determined by job evaluations. Such job evaluations are feasible only for the public sector and large private employers. The analysis in this paper recognizes that comparable worth wage adjustments are to be limited to the large employers. It examines how employers in the covered sector tend to alter their pay packages and hiring standards. Comparable worth legislation also affects wages in the uncovered sector populated by small employers. The rationing of women's jobs and the changes in hiring standards for men's jobs in the covered sector tend to redound to the benefit of smart, energetic women and dull, indolent men.
RESTORING PREDICTABILITY TO MERGER GUIDELINE ANALYSIS
Authors: JORDE THOMAS M.
Published: January 2010

Two recent developments reduce predictability and accountability in merger analysis. First, the 1984 Merger Guidelines adopt a multifactor method of analysis that focuses upon market structure, other market factors, financial trends, and efficiencies. Little guidance is given concerning the relative importance of these factors or how they will be measured and balanced. Second, current enforcement agencies appear to take a “regulatory” approach to merger enforcement. They issue “no‐action” decisions in 90–95 percent of the mergers reviewed and reach “fix‐it‐first” consent settlements before complaints are filed in most remaining cases.

These developments provide mixed blessings. Enforcement agencies gain flexibility and discretion. However, the business community suffers a reduction in predictability in merger analysis, which makes planning more difficult. Congress loses ability to carry out its oversight responsibilities, and the public's understanding of the government's policies is impaired.

Systematic, regular reports of information used by the government analyzing significant “second‐request” mergers should replace the present system of providing either no information or, at best, only selected information through ad hoc press releases and official speeches. Reporting on these transactions would not be burdensome, because their number is relatively small and the information already has been produced by the investigating enforcement agency. This information could easily be incorporated into the annual Hart‐Scott‐Rodino Act reports.

For each of these mergers, the information reported should include the government's views concerning the relevant market and the degree of concentration in that market. It also should specify the type and magnitude of other market factors, efficiencies, and/or defenses that might have played a role in reaching a decision not to prosecute the merger or a fix‐it‐first settlement. This information could be provided without infringing on confidentiality.
THE IMPACT OF ANTITRUST GUIDELINES ON BUSINESS
Authors: LANGENFELD JAMES
Published: January 2010

The dual antitrust goals of predictable law enforcement and accurate decisions in individual cases have been in conflict for decades. There are three dimensions to this conflict. First, there may be insufficient information on how the courts and enforcement agencies interpret the antitrust statutes. Second, the enforcement agencies may not use consistent standards to evaluate actual and potential antitrust cases. Third, antitrust guidelines may differ significantly from case law.

Unfortunately, attempts to improve one dimension of antitrust policy generally create conflicts elsewhere. Thus, the search for better antitrust decision making in individual cases has made antitrust counseling more complex and expensive. Over time, standards have evolved at different rates at the Department of Justice (DOJ), the Federal Trade Commission (FTC), and the courts, and inconsistencies among these three decision‐making bodies have further complicated the task of antitrust counseling. In this environment, improved and updated information on antitrust standards can potentially be very valuable to the business community.
MOTIVATIONS FOR HOSTILE TENDER OFFERS AND THE MARKET FOR POLITICAL EXCHANGE
Authors: POULSEN ANNETTE B. , JARRELL GREGG A.
Published: January 2010

This paper reviews the arguments concerning the role of hostile tender offers in today's corporate world. Some observers suggest that “corporate raiders” do not pay shareholders a fair price for their holdings and that they disrupt firms' day‐to‐day operations. Others point to the significant premiums paid to shareholders in tender offers, and they suggest that raiders play an important role in forcing changes in corporations. The paper also presents the authors' views on the viability of proposed regulations in the corporate control area.
ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES ON EDUCATIONAL POLICY: INTRODUCTION
Authors: SOLMON LEWIS C.
Published: January 2010

The two papers that follow both deal with prospects for achieving efficiency in education. Psacharopoulos identifies the extent of government‐induced distortions directly or indirectly related to education, and assesses the likely effects of such distortions on social welfare. He concludes that, among other things, governments should not attempt directly to provide or manage schooling services. Levin's article focuses upon one particular management decision…namely, extending the length of the school day and increasing the number of school days per year. He argues that mechanically increasing school sessions through legislative acts or through administrative mandates does not appear, in itself, to be a promising use of scarce resources.
WILL RECENT HIGH GROWTH RATES OF MONEY REVIVE INFLATION?
Authors: HETZEL ROBERT L.
Published: January 2010

From the end of 1984 through the middle of 1986, the monetary aggregate Ml growth rate has been extremely rapid by historical standards. The author argues that much of this rapid Ml growth reflects a transfer of funds out of banks' nonmonetary liabilities into banks' negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts. Prompting this transfer was the fall in market rates relative to rates offered on NOWs. In addition, the level of compensating balances that banks required of their corporate customers appears to have become more sensitive to market rates. Two measures are suggested to increase the usefulness of Ml targeting. The first is to use a shift‐adjusted Ml series, that is, a series adjusted for the flow of funds between NOW accounts and time deposits of banks. The second is to adjust Ml targets in light of interest rate changes.
PORTFOLIO SUBSTITUTION AND RECENT M1 BEHAVIOR
Authors: TREHAN BHARAT , WALSH CARL E.
Published: January 2010

A wide variety of explanations has been offered for the rapid M1 growth since early 1985. One such explanation focuses on a possible increase in the interest elasticity of money demand. We use a nonstructural framework and begin by simply asking how an increase in the degree of substitutability among monetary aggregates would affect the sample correlations among aggregates and interest rates. We then compare our answers with some summary statistics to argue that the 1980s have, in fact, witnessed a change in the behavior of money consistent with increased substitutability.
DANGERS OF CAPITAL FORBEARANCE: THE CASE OF THE FSLIC AND “ZOMBIE” S&Ls
Authors: KANE EDWARD J.
Published: January 2010

This paper portrays Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation (FSLIC) forbearance and congressional unwillingness to increase the FSLIC's human or capital resources to the size necessary to handle developing economic insolvencies as a joint policy crime that has served to bifurcate the savings and loan industry into the living and the living dead. As agents for the taxpayer, Congress and the FSLIC have assumed too much discretion and have chosen to exercise that discretion myopically. An agent has a duty to represent its principal's economic interests more effectively than this. The FSLIC's policy touchstone should be to negotiate and enforce the same kind of covenant provisions that a prudent private guarantor would require.
FISCAL POLICY TIED TO THE MAST: WHAT HAS GRAMM‐RUDMAN WROUGHT?
Authors: SHEFFRIN STEVEN M.
Published: January 2010

Gramm‐Rudman was an historic attempt to apply rules of self‐restraint to the fiscal process. This paper analyzes the logic of the Gramm‐Rudman approach from economic, legal, and budgetary perspectives. Although the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that the law was unconstitutional, Gramm‐Rudman did aid in deficit reduction. The features that led to its success were its careful design and construction, which could not he duplicated by a constitutional amendment.
INFLUENCES ON THE TIMING OF FIRST CHILDBEARING
Authors: MAXWELL NAN L.
Published: January 2010

This paper presents evidence that women from different population subgroups respond differently to economic and background influences when timing initial childbearing. Among all groups examined, age at first birth tends to increase as education levels increase, and married women with spouses present tend to be older than other women at first childbirth. Among whites, all economic influences considered–hourly pay rate, nonmarket income, and work during the year prior to childbearing–have a significant influence in deferring first childbirth, but family background does not. Among blacks, family background plays a significant role in determining age at first childbirth, but only one economic influence–the hourly pay rate–is significant. Blacks' response to family background is somewhat greater than their response to hourly pay rate. Race as a separate influence is significant among women age 20 years or under, but that influence disappears among older women. Because of their adverse economic consequences, adolescent pregnancies and unwed motherhood are of mounting concern. This study suggests that, contrary to popular belief, welfare programs do not foster early pregnancy nor do programs to reduce unemployment deter it. Educational achievement, however, serves as a deterrent to early pregnancy among all groups.
RETROSPECTIVE ON OIL PRICES
Authors: VACTOR SAMUEL A. VAN , TUSSING ARLON R.
Published: January 2010

Energy is the most abundant resource in the universe. While energy supplies are unbounded, useful energy is not. To convert naturally occurring energy resources into useful work, mankind must invest capital and labor–resources that normally are scarce. To produce or use primary energy, both producers and consumers must invest in specialized and often inflexible equipment. In calculating the perceived value of present and future oil supplies, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and almost everyone else mistook for economic rent the windfall profits associated with short‐term rigidities in energy use. Attention focused on the cost of manufacturing a synthetic crude oil, rather than on the incremental cost of changing consumption patterns in end‐use markets. Mis judgments on the future value of oil were compounded by ill‐conceived government policies and inaccurate forecasts. Substitution of oil for other energy commodities can occur at nearly every point along the chain downstream from the production of primary resources, but it occurs most abundantly and importantly at the point of final consumption. Liquid petroleum remains the cheapest fuel to transport, chiefly because a vast infrastructure already exists to handle it. The steady advance of technology explains the long‐term decline in the real prices of most products, including retail energy prices. Often, the increasing unit costs of harvesting or extracting a finite scarce natural resource have been more than offset by improvements in manufacturing or end‐use technology. The mix of commodities bought and sold in the next generation may be unrecognizable to today's consumer. Thus, the cost of any one primary resource or intermediate product may be irrelevant.
EVOLUTION OF THE OIL MARKET AND ENERGY SECURITY POLICY
Authors: BOHI DOUGLAS R.
Published: January 2010

This paper examines a number of issues that affect the U.S. government's role in responding to future energy crises. The paper argues that we do not adequately understand why oil prices behaved as they did during the two price shocks of the 1970s, and that the market has evolved in ways that will alter future price behavior compared with that of the past. Consequently, it is unwise to formulate energy policies on the basis of specific forecasts of market conditions, or to plan to fight repetitions of past oil market crises. To be effective, energy security policy must be designed to motivate the private sector and other governments to respond in ways consistent with policy objectives.
THE IMPACT OF A NEW FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN
Authors: KANE EDWARD J.
Published: January 2010

This paper treats appointing a Federal Reserve Chairman as a portfolio investment made by the United States President. It models Ronald Reagan's 1987 choice between Paul Volcker and other candidates as a trade‐off between a potentially unfavorable short‐term market response to replacing Volcker and various long‐term political benefits from installing Reagan's own man. The paper discusses possible effects of Alan Greenspan's chairmanship on the trajectory of future monetary policy, on the Fed's preferences for financial reform, and on the Fed's corporate culture.
INSIDER TRADING: THE LAW, THE THEORY, THE EVIDENCE
Authors: NETTER JEFFRY M. , POULSEN ANNETTE B. , HERSCH PHILIP L.
Published: January 2010

This paper reviews the arguments concerning the role and effects of insider trading. In reviewing the law of insider trading, we concentrate on the main elements of the regulatory framework and court interpretations. We discuss economic issues involved in the debate over the benefits and costs of insider trading. Finally, we discuss evidence illustrating that legal market research can explain much of the runup in a target firm's stock price before a tender offer is formally announced.
CONTINGENT AND NONCONTINGENT ATTORNEYS' FEES IN PERSONAL INJURY CASES
Authors: FISHER JOSEPH M.
Published: January 2010

Fee structures determine the economic incentives for lawyer performance. A certain hourly fee promotes excessive legal work, while a contingent fee leads to insufficient attorney effort. Competition among lawyers for enhanced reputation helps mitigate these effects, though client welfare still is not maximized. Clients' monitoring of attorney conduct often is necessary, but the expense of such monitoring limits its usefulness. This study concludes that the contingent fee may be a second‐best solution to the problem of regulating lawyer performance.
GORBACHEV'S PERESTROIKA
Authors: ELLIOTT JOHN E.
Published: January 2010

In its broadest sense, perestroika may encompass economic reforms or restructuring, openness to criticism, and democratization. One may attribute perestroika significantly to low performance, if not failure, in the Soviet system—notably, the need to modernize and to rectify lagging growth rates. The economic content of perestroika embodies fairly radical and comprehensive changes—notably, expanding enterprise autonomy and price mechanisms, reducing the scope and intensity of centralized planning, and allowing a larger role for individual and cooperative enterprise. Soviet experience supports the view that economic and political reforms are connected. Glasnost (openness) and democratization have expanded, partly as means to foster public support for economic restructuring. Such support is crucial, due to competing factions within the Communist Party and to the Party's opposition to more radical or democratizing reforms. Mikhail Gorbachev, after rejecting both Stalinism and post‐Stalinism, has turned to pre‐Stalinist sources—the Bolshevik Revolution, Lenin, Bukharin—for intellectual inspirations. Obstacles to reforms are substantial, and one may identify several alternative scenarios.
COMMERCIAL BANK LENDING TO DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE EXPANSION OF THE MARKET
Authors: ÖZLER SULE
Published: January 2010

The developing country debt crisis brought attention to the type of lending behavior that predominated while the commercial bank market developed. This article presents the major characterizations of bank behavior, particularly regarding predictions that can be tested empirically. Critically comparing existing empirical studies with these predictions shows that the magnitude of default risk and deposit insurance were incorporated into the lending behavior. However, these alone do not explain the evolution of the market. One can understand this evolution in terms of information imperfections in the market, but this evaluation contradicts a major role for agency problems in the banking firm.
OF MICE AND ELEPHANTS: THE CANADA‐U.S. FREE TRADE AGREEMENT
Authors: COPELAND BRIAN R.
Published: January 2010

This paper critically assesses the free trade agreement between Canada and the United States. Reviewing the theoretical literature on the gains from trade and the empirical literature on bilateral trade liberalization reveals that no presumption should exist that bilateral free trade would significantly improve Canada's welfare. Moreover, because of uncertainty over future abrogation or contingent protection actions, much of the predicted rationalization of Canadian industry may not occur. If, on the other hand, firms in Canada make major investments to take advantage of the agreement, Canada's bargaining position with the United States on trade and other issues could be weakened.
DETERMINING WHETHER DUMPED OR SUBSIDIZED IMPORTS INJURE DOMESTIC INDUSTRIES: INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION APPROACH
Authors: MORKRE MORRIS E. , KRUTH HAROLD E.
Published: January 2010

This paper examines the “traditional approach” that the US. International Trade Commission (ITC) has used during recent years to decide whether dumped or subsidized imports cause material injury to a domestic industry. ITC decisions are perceived as not explaining clearly why the conclusions reached follow from the facts presented. Using a survey of recent ITC decisions, the authors attempt to discover the assumptions and methods of analysis lying behind traditional analysis so that readers may more fully understand ITC opinions. The authors argue that the major components of the traditional approach are special applications of ordinary demand‐supply analysis.
ARE SOME BANKS TOO LARGE TO FAIL? MYTH AND REALITY
Authors: KAUFMAN GEORGE G.
Published: January 2010

At the time of the Continental Illinois National Bank insolvency, bank regulators considered some commercial banks “too large to fail” (TLTF) and were reluctant both to legally fail such banks and to impose pro rata losses on any of the uninsured creditors of these insolvent banks and their parent holding companies. This policy was introduced due to widespread fears that large bank failures would set off a domino effect bringing down other banks and possibly even the macroeconomy as it did during the 1930s. Also, because these banks are considered special in that they provide money and credit to their communities, many feared that their failure could reduce greatly the availability of these services.

This paper analyzes the validity of these fears by examining both theory and the historical record. It concludes that neither theory nor history provides strong support for either fear. In addition, the paper finds that the costs of regulatory forbearance granted to insolvent banks and their creditors greatly exceed the alleged benefits. It also reviews how policy makers apply the TLTF principle in practice. The paper concludes that the policy has been modified progressively over time so that some large banks now are declared legally insolvent and all creditors of bank holding companies—and some uninsured creditors of the banks themselves—incur losses. One may reasonably expect that TLTF will be modified further as the large societal costs become more evident to the public and regulators alike.
IS GOVERNMENT SPENDING STIMULATIVE?
Authors: ASCHAUER DAVID ALAN
Published: January 2010

This paper develops and implements a neoclassical model of fiscal policy. The paper's main empirical hypothesis is that government non‐military investment spending is more expansionary than is either government consumption or military investment. The paper utilizes annual data to support the hypothesis. It finds that output “multipliers” for government non‐military investment significantly exceed unity while multipliers for government consumption and military investment lie below unity. The paper also finds that public sector deficits—both actual and cyclically adjusted—contain minor explanatory power for output when one controls for the effects of non‐military investment.
ARMY RECRUITING IN A CHANGING ENVIRONMENT
Authors: KEARL CYRIL E. , HORNE DAVID K. , GILROY CURTIS L.
Published: January 2010

Army recruiting is sensitive to fluctuations in labor market conditions. Declines in unemployment over the past several years have led to decreases in the number and quality of enlistments. The Army has several discretionary policy tools that it can use to reduce cyclical variations in recruiting. However, budget constraints and other external requirements often limit the flexibility of these tools. More recently, the recruiting outlook turned favorable for the Army, primarily due to planned reductions in end strength. These reductions imply a 20 to 30 percent drop in total enlistment requirements over the next several years compared with 1989 levels. The danger is that dramatic budget cuts will impair the manpower quality goals of recruiting. Recruiting cuts alone should not be the only means of meeting end‐strength reductions to 1995.
COSTS OF CALIFORNIA's CORRELATIVE RIGHTS DOCTRINE AS A SOLUTION TO GROUNDWATER OVERDRAFT
Authors: HAMPTON NATHAN ERIC
Published: January 2010

This paper reports the present value of groundwater use under alternative institutional structures for the eastern portion of California's San Joaquin Valley. The Gisser‐Sanchez model, with data from the California Department of Water Resources, produced these results. The paper, through the use of an optimal control model, shows that private property rights outperform common property rights as an institutional guide to groundwater use. Furthermore, the paper shows that adjudicating groundwater rights under claim of adverse possession gives rise to a discounted flow of future income which, when compared with that of common property, gives the incentive to adjudicate groundwater rights.
USING OXYGENATED FUELS TO MITIGATE CARBON MONOXIDE AIR POLLUTION: THE CASE OF DENVER
Authors: ROWE ROBERT D. , SHELBY MICHAEL G. , EPEL JOSHUA B. , MICHELSEN ARI
Published: January 2010

Using alternative fuels to reduce air pollution has received considerable interest lately. Recently, the Denver metropolitan area initiated a program requiring the use of oxygenated fuels so as to reduce carbon monoxide air pollution. This paper documents the environmental and economic impacts of the first year of the Denver program. In addition, it compares the costs of using oxygenated fuels with those of other policies that could be implemented so as to reduce carbon monoxide air pollution.
ALTERNATIVE FUELS FOR POLLUTION CONTROL: AN EMPIRICAL EVALUATION OF BENEFITS AND COSTS
Authors: FRAAS ARTHUR , McGARTLAND ALBERT
Published: January 2010

In July 1989, the Bush administration proposed a new, dramatic approach to constructing clean air legislation. In particular, the Bush proposal calls for using alternative fuels as an important component to reducing urban ozone and carbon monoxide. This paper summarizes the Bush proposal, looks briefly at other options to reduce urban air pollution, and empirically evaluates the cost effectiveness of alternative fuels as an air pollution control strategy. The paper finds that the cost per ton of emissions reduced–the measure of cost effectiveness–varies dramatically as the price of gasoline vis a vis the price of the alternative fuel changes. For this reason, the authors believe that new clean air legislation should allow for great flexibility so as to allow states to incorporate alternative fuels when they are cost effective. If oil prices turn out to be lower than expected, then forcing urban centers to adopt relatively more expensive alternative fuels would impose high costs.
CHILD SUPPORT AND MOTHERS‘ EMPLOYMENT
Authors: GRAHAM JOHN W.
Published: January 2010

Previous research has found that child support receipts deter mothers' labor supply less than does other non‐wage income. This paper argues that because child support is a variable income source, actual receipts may differ from unobservable permanent receipts on which hours worked are based. This introduces an errors‐in‐variables bias causing the estimated income effect of child support on hours worked to be biased toward zero. When one replaces actual receipts with predicted permanent receipts, such income effect is found to be statistically indistinguishable from that of other non‐wage income.
THE HYBRID PLAN: A PROPOSAL FOR FEDERAL CREDIT REFORM
Authors: GALE WILLIAM G.
Published: January 2010

Federal credit subsidies are one of the largest areas of government activity. However, the Unified Budget treats lending in a highly misleading manner, and federal credit management is inconsistent and deceptive. These oversights have contributed to both the rapid rise of federal lending and the financial crises facing several credit agencies during recent years. Credit reform is a vital issue both to protect the government's huge financial stake and to ensure the success of credit programs.

This paper critiques previous proposals for credit reform–each suffering from major implementation problems–and suggests an alternative. The Hybrid Plan combines aspects of earlier proposals and eliminates several disadvantages of each. One could implement the Hybrid Plan under current conditions, but it also is consistent with further improvement in federal credit management.
WELFARE COST OF AN OIL IMPORT FEE
Authors: WALLS MARGARET A.
Published: January 2010

This paper examines the impacts on the US. oil market of a $5‐per‐barrel tariff on imported crude oil. The analysis shows that the United States currently is a price taker in the world oil market. This means that “optimal tariff” arguments for an oil import fee have no validity. The author also argues that any economic losses that oil supply disruptions generate are better addressed with alternative policy tools. To forecast the effects of the tariff on US. production, the author uses a domestic oil supply model that she developed elsewhere. She calculates the resulting gains in producer surplus and then combines them with an estimate of consumer surplus losses and government revenues so as to yield an estimate of the tariff's welfare cost. This welfare cost amounts to approximately $17 billion (in present‐value terms) over the 1988–1998 period.
DETERMINANTS OF BANK ACQUISITION PREMIUMS: ISSUES AND EVIDENCE
Authors: FRIEDER LARRY A. , PETTY PHILLIP N.
Published: January 2010

The recent interstate bank merger phenomenon has received little attention in the literature. Specifically, existing studies fail to explain sufficiently the variation of premiums paid and fail to investigate adequately the bank merger wave in terms of its interstate banking context.

This study employs models with substantial overall explanatory levels. The interstate banking context proves to be very significant. First, the study considers and finds significant the effective date of a state's interstate statute in relation to a deal's announcement date. This contrasts sharply with other studies. Second, the study uses and also finds significant a binary variable distinguishing intrastate deals from interstate deals. The premiums paid for interstate market entry, on average, exceeded those paid for intrastate transactions. Third, including regional binary variables reveals a pattern of variation in pricing throughout the country. The Southeast, the study's base of comparison, exhibited the highest premium level.

Other significant determinants of premiums paid include profitability as measured by returns on equity, growth proxied by state deposit growth and future expected population growth, and charge‐offs to total loans as an indicator of loan quality.
THE DETERMINANTS OF ILLEGAL DRUG USE
Authors: GILL ANDREW M. , MICHAELS ROBERT J.
Published: January 2010

An extensive set of self‐reported survey data exists on illegal drug use. The survey data show that drug use is quite frequent among the younger adult population, relatively infrequent among those of high‐school age, and rare among middle‐aged and older adults. Drug use varies by occupational category in ways that are difficult to rationalize. This study utilizes a model in which an individual's time is allocated among labor, non‐drug consumption, leisure, and drug use, where the individual is cognizant of the effect of drug use on his wages. The study analyzes comparative static results and then uses data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to estimate a probit model of the individual decision to use drugs. The findings of the study are that non‐economic factors dominate the decision for both harder drugs and drugs more broadly defined. One must consider this finding tentative, however, since usable drug price data were not available.
THE IMPACT OF GOVERNMENT DEFICITS ON PERSONAL AND NATIONAL SAVING RATES
Authors: DARBY MICHAEL R. , GILLINGHAM ROBERT , GREENLEES JOHN S.
Published: January 2010

This study provides fresh evidence on the responsiveness of private consumption and, by implication, saving to government deficits. It focuses on consumption and saving from 1981 to 1989, a period during which the personal saving rate was characterized as surprisingly unresponsive to high federal budget deficits. The authors attempt to determine whether this experience is consistent with previous behavior. They also test whether this experience refutes the Ricardian Equivalence Proposition (REP), under which consumers incorporate the government's intertemporal budget constraint into their own.

The analysis involves estimating two consumer expenditure functions based on two measures of current income capable not only of explaining expenditure behavior during the postwar period but also of successfully forecasting out of sample into the 1981–1989 period. Only one model is consistent with the REP, but neither model indicates that high government deficits caused the drop in the national saving rate experienced during the 1980s. Both models predict similar short‐run responses to shifts in the government deficit. The responses depend crucially on the mix of tax and expenditure changes used to achieve the deficit shift. Both consumption and saving are more responsive to changes in government expenditures on goods and services than they are to changes in taxes.
HIGHWAY SAFETY AND THE 65‐mph SPEED LIMIT
Authors: McCarthy Patrick S.
Published: January 2010

A Federal Highway Bill was enacted in 1987 in response to many state governments' increasing concerns that the 55‐mph national maximum speed limit was unduly restrictive. The bill permitted states to raise the maximum speed limit to 65 mph on most rural interstate highways, which historically have been the safest. The state of Indiana reacted promptly to the enabling legislation by raising the maximum speed limit on its rural interstate highways to 65 mph as of June 1, 1987. This paper uses cross‐section/time‐series data to estimate a model of highway safety. The primary empirical finding is that the higher speed limit on rural interstates has increased the incidence of total and injury interstate accidents but not of fatal interstate accidents. However, for the state as a whole, the relaxed speed limit has reduced total and injury accidents with no effect on fatal accidents. This indicates that the impact of speed limit legislation on non‐interstate roads has more than offset its effect on interstate highways.
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN ILLICIT DRUG ENFORCEMENT POLICY AND PROPERTY CRIMES
Authors: BENSON BRUCE L. , RASMUSSEN DAVID W.
Published: January 2010

Some justify the law enforcement emphasis on controlling illicit drug markets by contending that drug users attempting to finance their habits often are responsible for property crime. Yet, in Florida at least, the increased effort to control drug markets has been accompanied by increasing property crime. The fact is that law enforcement resources are scarce, and many resources now being devoted to enforcing drug laws have been shifted away from enforcing laws pertaining to other crimes. This has reduced deterrence for property crime and, as a result, such crime has increased. Thus, the resource reallocations accompanying strong drug law enforcement lead to more property crime.
TRANSITION FROM A COMMAND ECONOMY: RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS AND COLD TURKEY
Authors: WOLFSON MURRAY
Published: January 2010

This paper attempts to convey to representatives of the erstwhile Soviet bloc an understanding of the problems they face in achieving a market economy. Although the transition from a command economy to a market economy is perilous, the author advises policymakers that retarding the tempo of change will invite economic and political disaster.
CLEAN INDOOR AIR LAWS AND THE DEMAND FOR CIGARETTES
Authors: CHALOUPKA FRANK J. , SAFFER HENRY
Published: January 2010

This paper empirically tests the effect of clean indoor air laws on smoking. Public place clean indoor air laws restrict cigarette smoking in public places such as restaurants. Private place clean air laws regulate smoking in private work places as well as in public places. This study uses a time series of cross sections of the 50 states of the United States and Washington, D.C., from 1975 through 1985, to estimate single equation and simultaneous equation models of cigarette demand. The single equation results indicate that both the public place law and the private work place law have a negative effect on cigarette demand. However, a test for endogeneity shows that the enactment of clean indoor air laws is a function of cigarette demand. Results from a simultaneous equations model indicate that the public place law has a significant negative impact on cigarette demand, while the work place law has no effect on cigarette demand. Although these results demonstrate that only states with low levels of smoking have passed work place clean air laws, the results do not imply that the level of smoking would not decrease if such a law were imposed in all states.
MEDICAL RESEARCH AND GENETIC RESOURCES MANAGEMENT: THE CASE OF TAXOL
Authors: Day KELLY A. , Frisvold GEORGE B.
Published: January 2010

Commercial development of the anti‐cancer drug taxol has involved a complex set of interlocking research agreements. This paper explores the implications of such agreements and discusses diverse policy issues surrounding taxol development. Among these are forest management, species preservation, intellectual property rights, and the economics of biomedical research. Advances in genetic research increasingly have linked natural resource and technology policy issues. Institutional innovations in public/private research arrangements play a vital role in biotechnology development but are poorly understood. Policymakers need formal analyses of such agreements in order to evaluate complex research programs.
RETURNS PAID TO EARLY SOCIAL SECURITY COHORTS
Authors: DUGGAN JAMES E. , GILLINGHAM ROBERT , GREENLEES JOHN S.
Published: January 2010

Previous research generally concludes that early participants in the Social Security system received a very good “deal”—better than later participants received, and much better than future participants are likely to get. However, researchers do not know the values of those deals and their distribution across individuals and groups largely because the necessary data have not been available. The study here uses the Social Security Administration's 1988 Continuous Work History Sample (CWHS) to calculate early participants' real internal rates of return to contributions. The study analyzes sex, race, household type, income, and birth cohorts and employs new Census Bureau mortality projects to forecast more accurately how life expectancies and benefit streams vary by race as well as by sex and birth cohort.

Results contribute to an understanding of how the Social Security system redistributes income. All sample groups received high real rates of return. However, the returns varied widely by household type, income level, birth cohort, and other factors. The authors calculate that persons born from 1895 to 1922 received a total transfer of £3.5 trillion, of which £1.3 trillion remained to be paid as of 1988.
YOUTH ALCOHOL USE AND PUBLIC POLICY
Authors: LAIXUTHAI ADIT , CHALOUPKA FRANK J.
Published: January 2010

This paper examines the frequencies of youth drinking and heavy drinking in 1982 and 1989 and separately examines the effects of minimum legal drinking ages and beer excise taxes for each year. In both years, drinking is responsive to price changes resulting from higher excise taxes. However, the price sensitivity of youth alcohol use fell after states changed to a uniform minimum legal drinking age of 21.
WHAT SHOULD BANKS REALLY DO?: COMMENT
Authors: BERGER GEORGE S.
Published: January 2010

In the July 1992 Contemporary Policy Issues edition, Lawrence J. White (1992) argues that the inherently unstable character of the banking system requires that depositors be protected by various types of government intervention. The comment here outlines the opposite argument: government intervention destabilizes an inherently stable banking system. A framework developed in the comment provides the basis for criticizing White's general approach and policy proposals.