bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The impact of acid deposition and forest harvesting on lakes and their forested catchments in south central Ontario: a critical loads approach
Authors: Watmough S. A. , Dillon P. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The impact of acid deposition and tree harvesting on three lakes and their representative sub-catchments in the Muskoka-Haliburton region of south-central Ontario was assessed using a critical loads approach. As nitrogen dynamics in forest soils are complex and poorly understood, for simplicity and to allow comparison among lakes and their catchments, CLs (A) for both lakes and forest soils were calculated assuming that nitrate leaching from catchments will not change over time (i.e. a best case scenario). In addition, because soils in the region are shallow, base cation weathering rates for the representative sub-catchments were calculated for the entire soil profile and these estimates were also used to calculate critical loads for the lakes. These results were compared with critical loads obtained by the Steady State Water Chemistry (SSWC) model. Using the SSWC model, critical loads for lakes were between 7 and 19 meq m-2yr-1 higher than those obtained from soil measurements. Lakes and forests are much more sensitive to acid deposition if forests are harvested, but two acid-sensitive lakes had much lower critical loads than their respective forested sub-catchments implying that acceptable acid deposition levels should be dictated by the most acid-sensitive lakes in the region. Under conditions that assume harvesting, the CL (A) is exceeded at two of the three lakes and five of the six sub-catchments assessed in this study. However, sulphate export from catchments greatly exceeds input in bulk deposition and, to prevent lakes from falling below the critical chemical limit, sulphate inputs to lakes must be reduced by between 37% and 92% if forests are harvested. Similarly, sulphate leaching from forested catchments that are harvested must be reduced by between 16 and 79% to prevent the ANC of water draining the rooting zone from falling below 0 μeq l-1. These calculations assume that extremely low calcium leaching losses (9–27 μeq l-1) from forest soils can be maintained without any decrease in forest productivity. Calcium concentrations in the three lakes have decreased by between ∼10 and 25% over the past 20 years and calculations assume that calcium concentrations in lakes can fall to around 30% of their current values without any harmful effects on biota. Both these assumptions require urgent investigation. Keywords: acid deposition, calcium, critical loads, forests, harvesting, lakes
Improved unit hydrograph characterisation of the daily flow regime (including low flows) for the River Teifi, Wales: towards better rainfall-streamflow models for regionalisation
Authors: Littlewood I.G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. An established rainfall-streamflow modelling methodology employing a six-parameter unit hydrograph-based rainfall-runoff model structure is developed further to give an improved model-fit to daily flows for the River Teifi at Glan Teifi. It is shown that a previous model of this type for the Teifi, which (a) accounted for 85% of the variance in observed streamflow, (b) incorporated a pure time delay of one day and (c) was calibrated using a trade-off between two model-fit statistics (as recommended in the original methodology), systematically over-estimates low flows. Using that model as a starting point the combined application of a non-integer pure time delay and further adjustment of a temperature modulation parameter in the loss module, using the flow duration curve as an additional model-fit criterion, gives a much improved model-fit to low flows, while leaving the already good model-fit to higher flows essentially unchanged. The further adjustment of the temperature modulation loss module parameter in this way is much more effective at improving model-fit to low flows than the introduction of the non-integer pure time delay. The new model for the Teifi accounts for 88% of the variance in observed streamflow and performs well over the 5 percentile to 95 percentile range of flows. Issues concerning the utility and efficacy of the new model selection procedure are discussed in the context of hydrological studies, including regionalisation. Keywords: unit hydrographs, rainfall-runoff modelling, low flows, regionalisation.
Simplicity versus complexity in modelling groundwater recharge in Chalk catchments
Authors: Bradford R. B. , Ragab R. , Crooks S. M. , Bouraoui F. , Peters E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Models of varying complexity are available to provide estimates of recharge in headwater Chalk catchments. Some measure of how estimates vary between different models can help guide the choice of model for a particular application. This paper compares recharge estimates derived from four models employing input data at varying spatial resolutions for a Chalk headwater catchment (River Pang, UK) over a four-year period (1992-1995) that includes a range of climatic conditions. One model was validated against river flow data to provide a measure of their relative performance. Each model gave similar total recharge for the crucial winter recharge period when evaporation is low. However, the simple models produced relatively lower estimates of the summer and early autumn recharge due to the way in which processes governing recharge especially evaporation and infiltration are represented. The relative uniformity of land use, soil types and rainfall across headwater, drift-free Chalk catchments suggests that complex, distributed models offer limited benefits for recharge estimates at the catchment scale compared to simple models. Nonetheless, distributed models would be justified for studies where the pattern and amount of recharge need to be known in greater detail and to provide more reliable estimates of recharge during years with low rainfall. Keywords: Chalk, modelling, groundwater recharge
Volume-duration growth curves for flood estimation in permeable catchments
Authors: Bradford R. B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The volume and duration of groundwater discharge following extreme winter recharge events in permeable catchments can often be more disruptive than the peak discharge. An estimation procedure for annual maxima flood series in permeable catchments is extended to annual flood volumes for different durations. Growth factors for durations of 1 to 30 days and return periods of up to 250 years are derived for a sample of 12 permeable catchments in the UK. In most cases, adjusting the growth curves for ‘non-flood’ years has only a small effect and L-moment parameters show little change with duration. L-CV and L-skewness are highly correlated for the sample of Chalk catchments. Keywords: Chalk, groundwater flood estimation
Distribution and partitioning of heavy metals in estuarine sediment cores and implications for the use of sediment quality standards
Authors: Spencer K. L. , MacLeod C. L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Total metal concentrations in surface sediments and historically contaminated sediments were determined in sediment cores collected from three estuaries (Thames, Medway and Blackwater) in south-east England. The partitioning behaviour of metals in these sediments was also determined using a sequential extraction scheme. These data were then compared with sediment quality values (SQVs) to determine the potential ecotoxicological risk to sediment dwelling organisms. When total metal concentrations in surface sediments are examined, no risk to biota in any of the estuaries is indicated. However, when historically contaminated sediments at depth are also considered, risks to biota are apparent and are greatest for the Thames, followed by the Medway and then the Blackwater. This suggests that regulatory authorities should examine vertical metal profiles, particularly in estuaries that are experiencing low sediment accumulation rates where historically contaminated sediments are in the shallow sub-surface zone and where erosion or dredging activities may take place. When metal partitioning characteristics are also considered, the risk to biota is comparable for the Medway and the Blackwater with the potentially bioavailable fraction presenting no ecotoxicological risk. Conversely, over 70% of metals are labile in the Thames Estuary sediments and toxic effects are probable. This suggests that the application of SQVs using total sediment metal concentrations may over- or under-estimate the risk to biota in geochemically dissimilar estuarine sediments. Keywords: sediment quality values, estuarine sediments, metal contamination, partitioning, sequential extraction
Evaporation characteristics of wetlands: experience from a wetgrassland and a reedbed using eddy correlation measurements
Authors: Acreman M. C. , Harding R. J. , Lloyd C. R. , McNeil D. D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Measurements of evaporation were made from July to November 1999 using the eddy correlation method on two wetland types – wet grassland and reedbeds – in south west England. The evaporative water use of a reed bed exceeded that of the grassland wetland by 15% (or 50 mm over the 5 months). The evaporation rates at both sites exceed of the Penman Potential Evaporation estimates calculated for this area. The difference between sites results from the higher roughness length of the reed bed and the lower effective surface resistance of the reed/open water assemblage. At the grassland site, a significant relationship between the surface resistance and water table level has been demonstrated. The water table at this site is managed to maintain the plant diversity and allow some agricultural access. This regime specifies a water table below the surface during the summer period, which results in higher surface resistances and lower evaporation. The results have important implications for local water resources management, especially where wetlands are maintained by pumping from rivers or groundwater. Keywords: wetlands, evaporation, eddy correlation, wet grassland, reedbed, vapour pressure, water table level
Integrated hydrological modelling of a managed coastal Mediterranean wetland (Rhone delta, France): initial calibration
Authors: Chauvelon P. , Tournoud M. G. , Sandoz A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper presents a model of a heavily managed coastal Mediterranean wetland. The hydrosystem studied , called ``Ile de Camargue", is the central part of the Rhone river delta. It comprises flat agricultural drainage basins, marshes, and shallow brackish lagoons whose connection to the sea is managed. This hydrosystem is subject to strong natural hydrological variability due to the combination of a Mediterranean climate and the artificial hydrological regime imposed by flooded rice cultivation. To quantify the hydrological balance at different spatial and temporal scales, a simplified model is developed — including the basin and the lagoons — using a time step that enables the temporal dynamic to be reproduced that is adapted to data availability. This modelling task takes into account the functioning of the natural and anthropogenic components of the hydrosystem. A conceptual approach is used for modelling drainage from the catchment, using a GIS to estimate water input for rice irrigation. The lagoon system is modelled using a two-dimensional finite element hydrodynamic model. Simulated results from the hydrodynamic model run under various hydro-climatic forcing conditions (water level, wind speed and direction, sea connection) are used to calculate hydraulic exchanges between lagoon sub units considered as boxes. Finally, the HIC ("Hydrologie de l’Ile de Camargue") conceptual model is applied to simulate the water inputs and exchanges between the different units, together with the salt balance in the hydrosystem during a calibration period. Keywords: water management,conceptual hydrological model, hydrodynamic model, box model, GIS, Rhone delta, Camargue.
Investigating the influence of heavy metals on macro-invertebrate assemblages using Partial Cononical Correspondence Analysis (pCCA)
Authors: Beasley G. , Kneale P. E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper defines the spectrum of impairment to stream macroinvertebrates arising from urban runoff. Field sampling of stream sediments at 62 sites across Yorkshire, UK was used to investigate the influence of heavy metals and habitat on macroinvertebrate family distribution using partial Canonical Correspondence Analysis (pCCA). Increasing urbanization and trafficking was associated with increasing levels of metal pollution but, even when traffic is light, family numbers can be reduced by 50%. Industrial areas and motorway runoff depress macroinvertebrate numbers but drainage from streets with no off-road parking in residential areas can have similar impacts. The heavy metals in the sediment accounted for approximately 24% of the variation in macroinvertebrate community composition while the physical habitat variables used in RIVPACS (River InVertebrate Prediction And Classification System) (Wright, 2000) accounted for an additional 30%. Zinc and nickel were the main metal influences regardless of the time of sampling; at these sites copper is less than critical. Results agree with those reported in other studies in which families mainly from the orders Ephemeroptera (mayfly), Plecoptera (stonefly) and Tricoptera (caddisfly) displayed metal sensitivity in that they were absent from metal polluted streams. However, within each of these orders, a continuum of sensitivity is evident: this highlights the risks of generalising on orders rather than using family or indeed species data. Keywords: macroinvertebrates, heavy metals, urban streams, tolerance, sensitivity
Scale effects on the hydrological impact of upland afforestation and drainage using indices of flow variability: the River Irthing, England
Authors: Archer D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Frequent assertions by river users that rivers in northern England now rise and fall more quickly than in the past, have never been validated by analysis on catchments of more than 10 km2. The method using indices of flow variability provides a basis for making direct measurements of the annual number and duration of pulses, i.e. rises above a given flow, and for comparing catchments of different sizes. A comparison is made between the small afforested headwater Coalburn catchment (1.5 km2) and the larger River Irthing catchment (335 km2) on which the afforested area comprises 19%. A simple but effective means is provided for decoupling the effect of climatic variability from the effects of land use. The analysis shows that major changes have occurred on the small catchment, first with rising pulse numbers after pre-afforestation drainage, then with a much greater progressive decrease in pulse number accompanied with increasing pulse duration. In contrast, the larger catchment shows little change in variability indices from the beginning of its record in 1968 until the late 1980s after which the pattern of change mirrors that at Coalburn but the proportional change is much smaller. The direction of change is the opposite of that asserted by river users. Keywords: hydrology, flow variability, land-use impacts, forests, scale effects
Applying MODFLOW to wet grassland in-field habitats: a casestudy from the Pevensey Levels, UK
Authors: Bradford R. B. , Acreman M. C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Historical drainage improvements have created complex hydrological regimes in many low-lying, wet coastal grassland areas. The manipulation of ditch water levels is a common management technique to maintain important in-stream and in-field habitats in such areas. However, in wet grasslands with low soil conductivities the water table in the centre of each field is not closely coupled to variations in ditch stage. Consequently rainfall and evaporation have a greater influence on the depth to water table and water table fluctuations within each field. In-field micro-topographic variations also lead to subtle variations in the hydrological regime and depth to water table that create a mosaic of different wetness conditions and habitats. The depth, duration, timing and frequency of flooding from accumulated rainfall, surface water and standing groundwater also influence the availability of suitable in-field habitats. Land drainage models are often used for studies of wet grasslands, but tend to be more complex and require more field variables than saturated zone models. This paper applies a 3D groundwater flow model, MODFLOW, to simulate groundwater levels within a single field in a wet coastal grassland underlain by a low permeability sequence and located in the central part of Pevensey Levels, Sussex, UK. At this scale, the influence of vertical leakage and regional groundwater flow within the deeper, more permeable part of the sequence is likely to be small. Whilst available data were not sufficient to attempt a full calibration, it was found that the sequence could be represented as a single, unconfined sequence having uniform hydraulic properties. The model also confirmed that evaporation and rainfall are the dominant components of the water balance. Provided certain information requirements are met, a distributed groundwater model, such as MODFLOW, can benefit situations where greater hydrological detail in space and time is required to represent complex and subtle changes influencing the in-field habitats in wet grasslands with low permeability soils. Keywords: wetlands, hydrology,groundwater, MODFLOW
Modelling reversibility of Central European mountain lakes from acidification: Part I - the Bohemian forest
Authors: Majer V. , Cosby B. J. , Kopácek J. , Veselý J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A dynamic, process-based acidification model, MAGIC7, has been applied to three small, strongly acidified lakes in the Bohemian Forest, the Czech Republic. The model was calibrated for a set of experimental records on lake water composition over the 1984–2000 period, and produced hindcast concentrations that compared well, even with older (40-year) irregular determinations of nitrate, chloride and pH. Water and soil chemistry forecasts up to 2050 were based on reductions in S and N emissions presupposed by the Gothenburg Protocol. Modelled sulphate and chloride concentrations were predicted to decrease to the levels at the beginning of the 20th century by 2050. The lake water carbonate buffering system is predicted to be re-established in only two lakes (Cerné and Plešné), with current soil base saturations of 12-15%. Concentrations of ionic aluminium species decreased sharply, from 110 μeq l-1 in the mid-1980s to the current ~40 μeq l-1, and were predicted to decrease below 10 μeq l-1 in the 2020s. Diatom-inferred pH in pre-industrial times was substantially lower than modelled pH. It is suggested that the diatom pH, based almost entirely on non-planktonic species, is biased by inwash of diatoms from more acidic tributaries into the sediment of these small lakes. Generally significant results can be summarised as follows: (1) Simulated sulphate levels agree well with observations during acidification progress and retreat only for values of soil SO42- adsorption capacity three to six times (20 to 40 μeq kg-1) higher than those found experimentally. This implies a further mechanism of S retention and release in addition to physical sulphate adsorption to Fe and Al oxides of soils. (2) The catchments’ ability to retain deposited N appeared to decline after ~1950 but this was not connected with a sufficient change in the C:N ratio of the soils. Agreement between modelled and observed concentrations of nitrate was therefore achieved by empirical restriction of N retention in the soils. Based on their current ability to retain N, the catchments will remain N-saturated and could, temporarily, produce more inorganic N than they receive due to additional nitrate production from soil N-organic pools. This situation has occurred already in the Cerné Lake catchment. (3) Differences in responses of individual lakes can be attributed to different land usages over the past several centuries as well as to differences in geology and primary production. Keywords: MAGIC, atmospheric deposition, N retention, diatom-inferred pH, sulphate, nitrate, base cations, aluminium, Czech Republic
Modelling the effects of atmospheric sulphur and nitrogen deposition on selected lakes and streams of the Central Alps (Italy)
Authors: Rogora M. , Marchetto A. , Mosello R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The dynamic model MAGIC was calibrated and applied to selected sites in north-western Italy (3 rivers, 10 alpine lakes) to predict the future response of surface water to different scenarios of atmospheric deposition of S and N compounds. Results at the study sites suggest that several factors other than atmospheric deposition may influence the long-term changes in surface water chemistry. At present the lumped approach of dynamic models such as MAGIC cannot represent all the processes occurring at the catchment scale. Climate warming in particular and its effects on surface water chemistry proved to be important in the study area. Furthermore the river catchments considered here showed clear signs of N saturation. This condition and the increasing concentrations of NO3 in river water were simulated using N dynamics recently included in MAGIC. The modelling performed in this study represents the first application of MAGIC to Italian sites. The results show that inclusion of other factors specific to the Mediterranean area, such as dust deposition and climate change, may improve the fit to observed data and the reliability of the model forecast. Despite these limitations, the model captured well the main trends in chemical data in both rivers and lakes. The outputs clearly demonstrate the benefits of achieving the emission reductions in both S and N compounds as agreed under the Gothenburg Protocol rather than making no further emission reductions. It was also clear that, besides the substantial reduction of SO4 deposition from the peak levels of the 1980s, N deposition must also be reduced in the near future to protect freshwaters from further acidification. Keywords: MAGIC, northern Italy, acidification, recovery, nitrogen saturation
Modelling sulphate stream concentrations in the Black Forest catchments Schluchsee and Villingen
Authors: Prechtel A. , Armbruster M. , Matzner E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The sulphate (SO4) released by mineralisation and desorption from soil can play an important role in determining concentrations of SO4 in streams. The MAGIC model was calibrated for two catchments in the Black Forest, Germany (Schluchsee and Villingen) and SO4 concentrations in the streams for the years 2016 and 2030 were predicted. Special emphasis was placed on the dynamics of soil sulphur (S) pools. At Schluchsee, 90% of soil S is stored in the organic S (Sorg) pool, whereas at Villingen, 54% is in the inorganic (Sinorg) pool. The Villingen stream chemistry was modelled successfully by measured Langmuir isotherm parameters (LIPs) for Sinorg. Schluchsee data could not be modelled satisfactorily using measured or freely adapted LIPs only, as the Sinorg pool would have to be more than five times larger than what was measured. With 60.5 mmolc SO4 m-2 yr-1 as internal soil source by mineralisation and the measured LIPs, stream data was modelled successfully. The modelling shows that in these two catchments pre-industrial concentrations of SO4 in runoff can be reached in the next two decades if S deposition decreases as intended under currently agreed national and international legislation. Sorg is the most likely dominant source of SO4 released at Schluchsee. Mineralization from the Sorg pool must be included when modelling SO4 concentrations in the stream. As the dynamics and the controlling factors of S release by mineralisation are not yet clear, this process remains a source of uncertainty for predictions of SO4 concentrations in streams. Future research should concentrate on dynamics of S mineralisation in the field, such that mathematical descriptions of long-term S-mineralisation can be incorporated into biogeochemical models. Keywords: sulphate release, organic S, mineralisation, acidification, recovery, modelling, MAGIC, catchments, predictions, Germany, forest
Probable changes in lake chemistry in Canada’s Atlantic Provinces under proposed North American emission reductions
Authors: Clair T. A. , Dennis I. F. , Cosby B. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Atlantic Canada, located in the extreme north-eastern portion of North America, receives acid precipitation from all major acid emission sources on the eastern part of the continent. The region was glaciated and has thin soils over a generally poorly acid buffering bedrock. Because of regional topography, large groupings of lakes occur in a number of regions. Environment Canada and the Government of New Brunswick have operated lake sampling networks in trend detection studies and have concentrated their work on these lake groupings. The MAGIC model has been applied to these lakes and their catchments to see: a) what initial water chemistry conditions existed before acidification began, b) what the chemistry was like during the worst of regional acid deposition, and c) what it would be like under deposition conditions predicted for new Canadian and US emission reduction proposals. While pH, sulphate, acid neutralisation capacity (ANC) and the sum of the base cations (SBC) of all lakes have been significantly affected by acid deposition, water chemistry conditions are now considerably better than they were in 1975, at the worst of the deposition. However, a 50% reduction in acid deposition from Year 2000 deposition amounts will not return water chemistry to original conditions in most of the region. Keywords: Atlantic Canada, monitoring networks, acidification, predictions, MAGIC
Coherent response of lakes in Ontario, Canada to reductions in sulphur deposition: the effects of climate on sulphate concentrations
Authors: Dillon P. J. , Somers K. M. , Findeis J. , Eimers M. C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Sulphate deposition in south-central Ontario declined between 1976 and 2000 by more than 50%, whereas lake sulphate (SO42–) concentrations decreased by, on average, only half as much. To investigate the factors that controlled this slower than expected response, the temporal patterns in lake SO42– concentrations were compared with patterns in both deposition and climate, since climate has a major influence on the hydrological cycle in this part of the continent. To do this, the temporal coherence in SO42– concentrations between 9 lake basins was estimated using the intraclass correlation from a repeated-measures analysis of variance and two subsets of lakes were found (six in one group, four in the other), each with lakes having synchronous patterns. One subset (4 lakes) included the 3 with the longest water replenishment times (>3.4 yr) which are expected to respond to decreases in SO42– deposition more slowly. However, the average pattern reflecting the temporal changes of each of the two subsets was very similar. The response of both subsets of lakes to the decreasing SO42– deposition over two decades was independent of the degree of acidification or sensitivity to acidification of the lakes. In a determination of which factors best predicted each of those two subsets’ SO42– time series, good predictive models were produced by regional/global-scale climate indices, specifically the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) describing the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI), as well as by SO42– deposition indices. When the predictor variables were combined, models which described the long-term changes in lake SO42– concentration best included the SOI, the NAOI and SO42– deposition. Thus, large-scale climate factors play a major role in determining the response of aquatic systems to changes in SO42– deposition, perhaps through their influence on lake and/or catchment processes that effectively delay recovery. Keywords: Atmospheric deposition, lake recovery, temporal trends, climate, temporal coherence
Effects of IPCC SRES* emissions scenarios on river runoff: a global perspective
Authors: Arnell N. W.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper describes an assessment of the implications of future climate change for river runoff across the entire world, using six climate models which have been driven by the SRES emissions scenarios. Streamflow is simulated at a spatial resolution of 0.5°x0.5° using a macro-scale hydrological model, and summed to produce total runoff for almost 1200 catchments. The effects of climate change have been compared with the effects of natural multi-decadal climatic variability, as determined from a long unforced climate simulation using HadCM3. By the 2020s, change in runoff due to climate change in approximately a third of the catchments is less than that due to natural variability but, by the 2080s, this falls to between 10 and 30%. The climate models produce broadly similar changes in runoff, with increases in high latitudes, east Africa and south and east Asia, and decreases in southern and eastern Europe, western Russia, north Africa and the Middle East, central and southern Africa, much of North America, most of South America, and south and east Asia. The pattern of change in runoff is largely determined by simulated change in precipitation, offset by a general increase in evaporation. There is little difference in the pattern of change between different emissions scenarios (for a given model), and only by the 2080s is there evidence that the magnitudes of change in runoff vary, with emissions scenario A1FI producing the greatest change and B1 the smallest. The inter-annual variability in runoff increases in most catchments due to climate change — even though the inter-annual variability in precipitation is not changed — and the frequency of flow below the current 10-year return period minimum annual runoff increases by a factor of three in Europe and southern Africa and of two across North America. Across most of the world climate change does not alter the timing of flows through the year but, in the marginal zone between cool and mild climates, higher temperatures mean that peak streamflow moves from spring to winter as less winter precipitation falls as snow. The spatial pattern of changes in the 10-year return period maximum monthly runoff follows changes in annual runoff. Keywords: SRES emissions scenarios, climate change impacts on runoff, multi-decadal variability, macro-scale hydrological model, drought frequency, flood frequency
Use of several indices of event severity for floods and droughts
Authors: Jones D. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. An examination is made of the true return periods associated with certain types of composite indices for the rareness of events. In particular, return periods are evaluated separately for several different ways of describing how bad an event was, and the composite index, or apparent return period, is defined as the largest of these component return periods. Such apparent return periods give an incorrect indication of how often a larger value for the composite index will occur. Simulations are used to study the relationship between the true and apparent return periods for some simple cases, and an assessment is made of the extent of the error made if the apparent return period is used directly. A simple practical procedure is described for dealing with real datasets without model-fitting, and this is assessed using further simulations. An example is given relating to a possible flood situation where a composite index is constructed as the largest of the return periods of high rainfall-accumulations over a number of durations. Keywords: drought severity index, composite index, event severity, return period
Over-parameterisation, a major obstacle to the use of artificial neural networks in hydrology?
Authors: Gaume E. , Gosset R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Recently Feed-Forward Artificial Neural Networks (FNN) have been gaining popularity for stream flow forecasting. However, despite the promising results presented in recent papers, their use is questionable. In theory, their “universal approximator‿ property guarantees that, if a sufficient number of neurons is selected, good performance of the models for interpolation purposes can be achieved. But the choice of a more complex model does not ensure a better prediction. Models with many parameters have a high capacity to fit the noise and the particularities of the calibration dataset, at the cost of diminishing their generalisation capacity. In support of the principle of model parsimony, a model selection method based on the validation performance of the models, "traditionally" used in the context of conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling, was adapted to the choice of a FFN structure. This method was applied to two different case studies: river flow prediction based on knowledge of upstream flows, and rainfall-runoff modelling. The predictive powers of the neural networks selected are compared to the results obtained with a linear model and a conceptual model (GR4j). In both case studies, the method leads to the selection of neural network structures with a limited number of neurons in the hidden layer (two or three). Moreover, the validation results of the selected FNN and of the linear model are very close. The conceptual model, specifically dedicated to rainfall-runoff modelling, appears to outperform the other two approaches. These conclusions, drawn on specific case studies using a particular evaluation method, add to the debate on the usefulness of Artificial Neural Networks in hydrology. Keywords: forecasting; stream-flow; rainfall-runoff; Artificial Neural Networks
The effect of changes in natural and anthropogenic deposition on modelling recovery from acidification
Authors: Martinson L. , Alveteg M. , Mörth C.-M. , Warfvinge P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The multi-layer dynamic soil chemistry SAFE model was used to study the dynamics of recovery in the F1 catchment at Lake Gårdsjön, Sweden. The influence of (1) sulphate adsorption, and (2) changes in marine deposition, on model predictions of recovery was studied. Sulphate adsorption/desorption in SAFE is modeled by an isotherm in which sulphate adsorption is dependent on both the sulphate concentration and the pH in the soil solution. This isotherm was parameterised for the B-horizon of F1 for the sulphate concentration range 10–260 m mol-1 and the pH range 3.8–5.0. Sulphate adsorption/desorption as the only soil process involving sulphate is adequate to predict sulphate in run-off at F1. Adding the process caused time-delays in sulphate concentration in run-off of only 1-2 years, which was much shorter than previously seen in the adjacent G1 catchment. The location of Lake Gårdsjön, approximately 15 km inland from the Swedish west coast, ensures that the marine deposition to the area is high. Model output showed that the temporal variation in marine deposition has a considerable impact on the run-off chemistry. Such changes in marine deposition are difficult to foresee and their influence on modelled run-off chemistry can be large when soils start to recover as the previously high concentrations of anthropogenic sulphate in the soil solution decrease. Keywords: climate change, dynamic modelling, run-off chemistry, sea-salt effect, soil and water acidification, sulphate adsorption
The effect of background hydrometeorological conditions on the sensitivity of evapotranspiration to model parameters: analysis with measurements from an Italian alpine catchment
Authors: Montaldo N. , Toninelli V. , Albertson J. D. , Mancini M. , Troch P. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Recent developments have made land-surface models (LSMs) more complex through the inclusion of more processes and controlling variables, increasing numbers of parameters and uncertainty in their estimates. To overcome these uncertainties, prior to applying a distributed LSM over the whole Toce basin (Italian Alps), a field campaign was carried out at an experimental plot within the basin before exploring the skill and parameter importance (sensitivity) using the TOPLATS model, an existing LSM. In the summer and autumn of 1999, which included both wet (atmosphere controlled) and dry (soil controlled) periods, actual evapotranspiration estimates were performed using Bowen ratio and, for a short period, eddy correlation methods. Measurements performed with the two methods are in good agreement. The calibrated LSM predicts actual evapotranspiration quite well over the whole observation period. A sensitivity analysis of the evapotranspiration to model parameters was performed through the global multivariate technique during both wet and dry periods of the campaign. This approach studies the influence of each parameter without conditioning on certain values of the other variables. Hence, all parameters are varied simultaneously using, for instance, a uniform sampling strategy through a Monte Carlo simulation framework. The evapotranspiration is highly sensitive to the soil parameters, especially during wet periods. However, the evapotranspiration is also sensitive to some vegetation parameters and, during dry periods, wilting point is the most critical for evapotranspiration predictions. This result confirms the importance of correct representation of vegetation properties which, in water-limited conditions, control evapotranspiration. Keywords: evapotranspiration, sensitivity analysis, land surface model, eddy correlation, Alpine basin
A standardised method for measuring in situ denitrification in shallow aquifers: numerical validation and measurements in riparian wetlands
Authors: Sánchez-Pérez J. M. , Bouey C. , Sauvage S. , Teissier S. , Antiguedad I. , Vervier P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A tracer test to examine in situ denitrification in shallow groundwater by a piezometer with a packer system used bromide as a tracer of dilution and acetylene (10%) to block the denitrification process at the nitrous oxide stage. During the test, dissolved oxygen, nitrate (NO3‾), bromide (Br‾), nitrous oxide (N2O) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) were measured. To calibrate the experimental method, comparison with numerical simulations of the groundwater transfer were carried out, taking into account the environmental characteristics. The method was tested by measurements undertaken in different environmental conditions (geology, land use and hydrology) in two riparian wetlands. Denitrification rates measured by this method ranged from 5.7 10-6 g N-NO3‾L-1 h-1 to 1.97 10-3 g N-NO3‾L-1 h-1 The method is applicable in shallow aquifers with a permeability from 10-2 to 10-4m s-1. Keywords: denitrification, shallowaquifer, groundwater modelling, wetlands, nitrate-nitrogen, packer system
Nitrogen dynamics in the shallow groundwater of a riparian wetland zone of the Garonne, SW France: nitrate inputs, bacterial densities, organic matter supply and denitrification measurements
Authors: Sánchez-Pérez J. M. , Vervier P. , Garabétian F. , Sauvage S. , Loubet M. , Rols J. L. , Bariac T. , Weng P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This study highlights the role of interactions between surface and sub-surface water of the riparian zone of a large river (the Garonne, SW France). Information is given about the role of surface water in supplying Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC ) to the riparian zone for nitrate removal processes. The densities of bacteria (up to 3.3 106 cell m L-1) in groundwater are strongly conditioned by the water moving during flood events. Total bacterial densities in groundwater were related to surface water bacterial densities. In sediment, total bacteria are attached mainly to fine particles (90% in the fraction < 1 mm). Spatial variations in organic carbon and nitrate content in groundwater at the site studied are correlated with exchanges between the groundwater and the river, from the upstream to the downstream part of the meander. Total bacterial densities, nitrate and decressing organic carbon concentrations follow the same pattern. These results suggest that, in this kind of riparian wetland, nitrate from alluvial groundwater influenced by agricultural practices may be denitrified by bacteria in the presence of organic carbon from river surface water. Keywords: riparian zone, nitrate removal, spatial variations, alluvial groundwater
The hydrological significance of mountains: from regional to global scale
Authors: Viviroli D. , Weingartner R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Mountain regions supply a large share of the world’s population with fresh water. Quantification of the hydrological significance of mountains, however, is subject to great uncertainty. Instead of focusing on global averages in advance, the present analysis follows a catchment-based approach using discharge data provided by the Global Runoff Data Centre (GRDC). The River Rhine originating in the European Alps is chosen as a first study area, revealing the hydrological relationship between mountainous and lowland regions in a well-documented area. Following the findings from this analysis, different aspects of runoff characteristics for a total of 22 case-study river basins world-wide have been investigated and compared, for a global view. The view has been extended through aspects of climate and human use of mountain runoff. The particular hydrological characteristics of mountain areas are characterised by disproportionately large discharges. In humid areas, mountains supply up to 20–50% of total discharge while in arid areas, mountains contribute from 50–90% of total discharge, with extremes of over 95%. The overall assessment of the hydrological significance of mountain areas reveals that the world’s major "water towers" are found in arid or semi-arid zones where they provide essential fresh water for a significant proportion of a quickly growing global population. Keywords: mountain hydrology, global comparative assessment, runoff, water resources, sustainability, Rhine River, European Alps
Estimating RUSLE’s rainfall factor in the part of Italy with a Mediterranean rainfall regime
Authors: Diodato N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The computation of the erosion index (EI), which is basic to the determination of the rainfall-runoff erosivity factor R of the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE), is tedious and time-consuming and requires a continuous record of rainfall intensity. In this study, a power equation(r2 = 0.867) involving annual erosion index (EI30-annual) in the Mediterranean part of Italy is obtained. Data from 12 raingauge stations are used to derive and then test a regional relationship for estimating the erosion index from only three rainfall parameters. Erosivity rainfall data derived from 5 additional stations are used for validation and critical examination. The empirical procedures give results which compare satisfactorily with relationships calibrated elsewhere. Keywords: erosion index, rainfall, erosivity, Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation
Water dynamics in a laurel montane cloud forest in the Garajonay National Park (Canary Islands, Spain)
Authors: García-Santos G. , Marzol M. V. , Aschan G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Field measurements from February 2003 to January 2004 in a humid (but dry in summer) crest heath wood-land (degraded laurel forest) in the National Park of Garajonay, Canary Islands (Spain), were combined to calculate water balance components. The water balance domain is at the surface of the catchment and is controlled by atmospheric processes and vegetation. This study found that annual water income (rainfall plus fog water) was 1440 mm year-1, half of which was occult (or fog) precipitation, while stand transpiration estimated from measurements of sap flow amounted, annually, to 40% of potential evapotranspiration calculated from measurements of meteorological variables. The positive role of crest laurel forests, which transpire less water than is incoming from rain and fog is emphasised. Keywords: laurel forest, fog interception, stand transpiration, sap flow, hydrological cycle
Snowmelt and sublimation: field experiments and modelling in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco
Authors: Schulz O. , de Jong C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Snow in the High Atlas Mountains is a major source for freshwater renewal and for water availability in the semi-arid lowlands of south-eastern Morocco. Snowfall- and snow-ablation monitoring and modelling is important for estimating potential water delivery from the mountain water towers to the forelands. This study is part of GLOWA-IMPETUS, an integrated management project dealing with scarce water resources in West Africa. The Ameskar study area is located to the south of the High Atlas Mountains, in their rain shadow. As a part of the M’Goun river basin within the upper Drâa valley, the study area is characterised by high radiation inputs, low atmospheric humidity and long periods with sub-zero temperatures. Its altitude ranges between 2000 m and 4000 m, with dominant north- and south-facing slopes. Snowfall occurs mainly from November to April but even summit regions can become repeatedly devoid of snow cover. Snow cover maps for the M’Goun basin (1240 km2) are derived from calculations of NDSI (Normalized Difference Snow Index) from MODIS satellite images and snow depth is monitored at four automatic weather stations between 2000–4000 m. Snowfall events are infrequent at lower altitudes. The presence of snow penitentes at altitudes above 3000 m indicates that snow sublimation is an important component of snow ablation. Snow ablation was modelled with the UEB Utah Energy Balance Model (Tarboton and Luce, 1996). This single layer, physically-based, point energy and mass balance model is driven by meteorological variables recorded at the automatic weather stations at Tounza (2960 m) and Tichki (3260 m). Data from snow pillows at Tounza and Tichki are used to validate the model’s physical performance in terms of energy and water balances for a sequence of two snowfall events in the winter of 2003/4. First UEB modelling results show good overall performance and timing of snowmelt and sublimation compared to field investigations. Up to 44% of snow ablation is attributed to snow sublimation in typical winters with subzero temperatures and low atmospheric humidity at an altitude of 3000 m. At altitudes below 3000 m snowmelt generally dominates over sublimation. Unfortunately, the highest altitude zones suffer long periods with direct water loss into the atmosphere by sublimation in the course of which they cannot contribute to direct runoff or groundwater formation in the southern High Atlas Mountains. Keywords: sublimation, snow ablation modelling, energy balance model, High Atlas Mountains
Groundwater recharge and capillary rise in a clayey catchment: modulation by topography and the Arctic Oscillation
Authors: Schrøder T. M. , Rosbjerg D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The signature left by capillary rise in the water balance is investigated for a 16 km2 clayey till catchment in Denmark. Integrated modelling for 1981–99 substantiates a 30% uphill increase in average net recharge, caused by the reduction in capillary rise when the water table declines. Calibration of the groundwater module is constrained by stream flow separation and water table wells. Net recharge and a priori parameterisation has been estimated from those same data, an automatic rain gauge and electrical sounding. Evaluation of snow storage and compensation for a simplified formulation of unsaturated hydraulic conductivity contribute to a modelling of the precipitation-runoff relation that compares well with measurements in other underdrained clayey catchments. The capillary rise is assumed to be responsible for a 30% correlation between annual evapotranspiration and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The observed correlation, and the hypothesis of a hemispherical Arctic Oscillation linking atmospheric pressure with surface temperature, suggests that modelled evapotranspiration from clayey areas is better than precipitation records for identifying the region influenced by oscillation. Keywords: catchment modelling, MIKE SHE, capillary rise, degree-day model, climate