bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A Graphical Display for Comparing Bowlers in Cricket
Authors: Kimber Alan
Published: June 2007

In cricket it is of interest to compare bowlers on the basis of bowling average, economy rate and strike rate. In this article is presented a simple graphical display for making simultaneous comparisons on the basis of these three summary measures. The method is illustrated with some examples from Test Match and other First‐Class cricket.
Teaching by Design
Authors: Bowman Adrian
Published: June 2007

Some teaching material which invites a group of students to design and carry out a small experiment to investigate the working of short term memory is described. No equipment of any kind is required. These ideas have been found to be very helpful in making students think about some very basic and practical issues in designing and carrying out an experiment. The simple nature of the material makes it accessible to all levels of students.
Learning about Extremes
Authors: Coles Stuart G
Published: June 2007

For many physical processes it is extreme levels which are of greatest concern. This article gives a practical introduction to the problems and models involved.
Sampling Errors in Political Polls
Authors: Kmietowicz Zbigniew
Published: June 2007

This article examines the sampling error of the lead of one political party over another as observed in a random sample of voters. The sample size needed to achieve a certain precision is also investigated.
Tampering with a Stable Process
Authors: Krehbiel Timothy C.
Published: June 2007

This article presents a variation of the funnel experiment made famous by W. Edwards Deming. Ideally suited for classroom use, this exercise illustrates the disastrous consequences resulting from tampering with a stable process.
Apparent Decline As A Sign Of Improvement? or, Can Less Be More?
Authors: Chatterjee Sangit , Hawkes James
Published: June 2007

Improvement of a system need not be the usual growth expected of dynamic systems. Decreasing variability, an important index of improvement, is discussed. The disappearance of 0.400 hitters from professional baseball can be better understood under such an assumption. Other examples illustrating the apparent paradox are also mentioned.
Beginning Statistics with Cuisenaire Rods
Authors: Hollingsworth Caroline
Published: June 2007

Cuisenaire Rods provide a concrete embodiment for teaching mean, median, and mode to middle schoolers. These statistical concepts are traditionally only taught abstractly, but may be better understood via manipulatives.
Statistics and the Mathematical Processes
Authors: Begg Andy
Published: June 2007

The increasing emphasis on what mathematicians do as distinct from what they know in the development of school mathematics curricula presents some interesting possibilities for teachers of statistics. This article looks at these processes and suggests the kind of influence that they may be having on schools.
Electrifying Statistics for Your Students
Authors: Rycraft Michael
Published: June 2007

The problem of which electricity tariff is the most economical is considered for some different situations. Given the uncertainty of estimating exact usage in advance, various statistical concerns are mentioned, many of which lend themselves to classroom demonstrations.
How Many Fish are in the Pond?
Authors: Johnson Roger W.
Published: June 2007

This article describes the capture‐recapture method of estimating the size of an animal population and illustrates it with a “hands‐on” classroom activity. Properties of the estimate, such as its variability, may be explored with the Minitab macro provided.
Earth's Surface Water Percentage?
Authors: Johnson Roger
Published: June 2007

A hands‐on activity is used to illustrate standard point and interval estimates of a proportion. Since the proportion is more or less known, the accuracy of these estimates can be assessed. A hypothesis test associated with the interval estimate is also given.
Retracted: On a Patrol Problem
Authors: Ageel Mohammed
Published: June 2007

Retraction: The following article from Teaching Statistics, ‘On a Patrol Problem’ by Mohammed Ageel, published online on 8 June 2007 on Wiley Online Library (onlinelibrary.wiley.com), has been retracted by agreement between the author, the current and immediate past journal Editors, Paul Hewson and Roger Johnson, the Trustees of Teaching Statistics and Blackwell Publishing Ltd. The retraction has been agreed due to unacknowledged overlap with ‘A Patrol Problem’ by Alan Levine, published in Mathematics Magazine, vol. 59, no. 3, pp. 159–166 (1986).
Coincidences: the truth is out there
Authors: Matthews Robert , Stones Fiona
Published: June 2007

We give a simple way of demonstrating that coincidences really are “out there”, as probability theory predicts‐ if we take the trouble to look.
A Sort of Statistics Lesson
Authors: du Feu Chris
Published: June 2007

A classroom practical activity for sorting lists of numbers is described, leading to some statistical analysis.
THINK: A Game of Choice and Chance
Authors: Falk Ruma , Tadmor‐Troyanski Maayan
Published: June 2007

A game of chance in which players can maximise their expected gain by making appropriate decisions is described. Developing an optimal strategy involves computing probabilities and conditional expected values.
The Birthday Problem Revisited
Authors: Griffiths Jonny
Published: June 2007

This article presents a variant on the will‐known Birthday Problem.
On Approximate Calculations
Authors: Jolliffe Flavia
Published: June 2007

The ability to undertake approximate calcutations and to get a “rough feel” for data is an important skill which must not be overlooked.
British Employment Measures: Policy and Evidence
Authors: Lindley Robert
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: This paper examines how British labour market policy has developed over the decade up to mid‐1986 and summarises the evidence available on the effects of the so‐called 'special employment measures'. Given the wide range of schemes and the variations in rules governing them as they evolved, no attempt is made to give details of the different schemes. The aims are to identify the main shifts in policy and to address the principal methodological and empirical issues which arise in attempting to evaluate policy.

The main focus of the paper is on those measures which have been designed to increase employment without threatening the attempts by successive governments first to restrain the growth of public expenditure and then to reduce the level in real terms. The mainstream macroeconomic and labour market strategy continues to stress the need for fiscal and monetary restraint combined with much greater labour market flexibility.

Whilst the paper is concerned with employment measures, the Youth Training Scheme is also included. It represents the biggest of all the programmes initiated during the last decade or so of policy intervention and is concerned with providing employment as well as training opportunities.
Short‐Run Wage Flexibility and Labour Market Adaptation in Western Europe
Authors: Marsden David
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: This paper starts by reviewing some of the evidence relating to movements in relative wages, asking what have been their causes and whether they serve to allocate labour across labour markets. Much of the research has tended to focus on the statistical sources available, and therefore to focus on movements of pay between industries rather than firms, between occupations, and between workers with different levels of qualification. This has greatly constrained the possibility of linking these different dimensions to look at the ideal question, namely to what extent do relative wages respond to labour supply and demand pressures, and to what extent do they help to reconcile these two pressures. In addition, evidence from studies based on data obtained from individual firms also broadly supports the view that wage differentials are not very responsive to supply and demand pressures, and also that they are mostly not very effective in promoting the adaptation of labour supply and demand across labour markets. The paper ends by considering briefly some recent policy ideas for increasing the responsiveness of relative wages to demand changes.
A Stock‐Flow Model to Analyse and Forecast Labour Market Variables
Authors: Bruni Michele
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: In confronting problems of employment and unemployment, students of the labour market, and economists in general have focused mainly on the determination of the level of such variables.

Much less attention has been paid to such questions as: how many persons have entered the area of employment and the labour force in various time periods, and how many have exited; their sex and age distribution; and the determinants of the level and structure of flows amongst the various labour market conditions. Yet it appears superfluous to underscore the relevance of such questions. To illustrate, suffice it to recall that in Italy, the present level of employment is essentially the same today as it was in 1961‘; but this has not prevented whole generations of young people from 'stably’entering the employment area, albeit with varying degrees of difficulty in different periods.

As for the numerous statistical surveys of labour market flows in a range of countries, and as for the works of job search theorists2, it should be observed that such surveys and analyses essentially concern conjunctural phenomena. Consequently, these authors have paid no attention to the distinction between short‐run turnover and generational turnover, or to the extremely singular characteristics of the statistical data on flows. An attempt to construct labour market models that present an integrated version of the 'structural’aspects of the market in terms of stock and flows is therefore lacking.

The present study sets forth various objectives and is divided into two parts.

In the first, an analysis of several controversial terminological aspects of the concepts of stock and flow is presented, and an attempt is made to point out those theoretical structures which have been responsible for the long‐prevailing neglect of the labour market flows, particularly long‐run flows. Then the problem of defining the concepts of short‐run and generational turnover will be confronted in light of an analysis of the statistical methods used in the surveys; finally, a methodology for measuring generational flows is proposed.

In the second part of the paper a model based on generational flows, as previously defined, will be presented together with a computational procedure capable to produce long run estimates of alternative scenarios of labour demand and supply and of the structure of employment by sex and age. A brief summary of some of the empirical results obtained applying our model and forecasting procedure to the Italian labour market will also be discussed in the final part of the paper.
Modelling Job‐Search Duration from the Italian Labour Force Data
Authors: Torelli Nicola , Trivellato Ugo
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Micro (and possibly panel) data from the Labour Force Surveys are a valuable source for analysing the labour supply behaviour. Among the information collected by the quarterly Italian Labour Force Survey conducted by ISTAT (the Italian national statistical agency), there are data on the duration of job‐search.

From a single survey, one can only know the duration of search up to the time of the interview. Nonetheless, by appropriately exploiting the longitudinal structure of the survey (the sample scheme is a rotated one, with a 50|X% overlapping of the sample units in two subsequent quarters) it is possible to measure, although imperfectly, some completed spells of job‐search.

In this paper, we try to model the duration of job‐search for a sample of young unemployed. Considerable attention is devoted to the measure of duration of search, and to the evaluation of its accuracy. A one state proportional hazard model is specified and estimated, accounting also for unobserved heterogeneity.

The model is estimated on a sample of young (15 to 29 years old) unemployed in January 1986 reinterviewed in April, in an Italian region (Lombardy).

The major finding is a fairly clear evidence, both for males and females, of negative duration dependence, even after accounting for the unobserved heterogeneity that turns out to affect the female population.
On Theories of Unemployment Persistence: A Quick Look at Recent Developments
Authors: Fitoussi Jean‐Paul , Cacheux Jacques Le
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is to supply a theoretical explanation for the persistence of the high unemployment rates found particularly in Europe. For this purpose, the authors briefly review the major contending theories presently available, but conclude that market clearing analyses of the business cycle are ill‐suited to the case under examination. In the second section of the paper the authors offer a non‐technical summary of the main results of the non‐market clearing approach to macroeconomics, and in the third section discuss the microeconomic underpinnings of models with unemployment equilibria.
Can Europe Reach Full Employment Again?
Authors: Labini Paolo Sylos
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: In this paper the author analyzes what has caused the marked increase in unemployment registered throughout the major industrialized countries over the past fifteen years. In particular, the relation between wages and employment is examined, along the lines of a Ricardian analysis. In recent times various rigidity factors in the labour market have rendered the absorption and reabsorption of unemployment more arduous. From this analytical basis, the author discusses the concept of the optimum degree of flexibility and outlines the measures to be taken if unemployment is to be beaten.
Do Marginal Employment Subsidies Increase Re‐Employment Probabilities? Preliminary Results on the Experiment of the Agenzia del Lavoro of Trento (Italy)
Authors: Felli Leonardo , Ichino Andrea
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: The purpose of this paper is to test whether a Marginal Employment Subsidy program (MES) is effective in reducing the length of unemployment spells. Our test is constructed in such a way as to isolate the direct effect of the MES from the business cycle effect (i.e. the variation in unemployment that would have normally occurred in the absence of the program). Specifically, we estimate a Markov chain duration model with time‐varying covariates and we test if eligibility for an MES increases the hazard rate of leaving unemployment. One of the time‐varying covariates is an index of macro‐economic performance that controls for the variation in the hazard rate due to business cycle fluctuations. The net effect of the MES offered by the Agenzia del Lavoro of Trento, Italy, is shown to be significantly positive: the Marginal Employment Subsidy program increases the re‐employment probability and reduces the expected duration of unemployment by twenty one months.
Emigration and Immigration in Italy: Recent Trends
Authors: Calvanese Francesco , Pugliese Enrico
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: During the eighties Italy has evolved into being a receiver of immigration. However, the existence of large Italian communities abroad, and the persistence of exit migratory flows (although amply compensated by re‐entry flows) show that the connotation of Italy as a country of emigration still persists. This paper points out the differing composition of present immigration flows to Italy compared to those of Italian migratory flows towards the more industrially advanced European countries over the past decades. The labour forces that constitute these present day immigration flows often possess medium to high educational qualifications, and are more frequently absorbed into the tertiary and agricultural markets, rather than the industrial sector. These immigrants rarely have regular, unionized occupations, and satisfy a demand for precarious, unstable labour which is in expansion in Italy, as in other countries. Furthermore, these immigration flows are directed not only towards those regions with high employment rates, but also to those with high unemployment rates. Thus, the implications are that the character of present day emigration can only be clearly understood by taking into account the highly segmented aspect of the labour market.
A Long Cycle in Industrial Relations, or: Regulation Theory and Political Economy
Authors: Salvati Michele
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: The main purpose of this paper is to test the Regulation Theory (la Théorie de la Régulation) ‘ on a subject — the long cycle of rigidity/flexibility in labour markets and industrial relations we have experienced between the late sixties and now — that should be one of the central concerns of such a theory, being linked to one of its basic concepts: the Rapport Salarial. Does the theory of regulation help us (more than rival theoretical frameworks do) in explaining why we underwent a rigidity/flexibility cycle? And in explaining why this cycle took such different forms in different countries?

In order to achieve this purpose, the author first distinguishes several meanings, or dimensions, or rigidity/flexibility (money and real wage, numerical, functional, intensive, dualistic, geographical) and goes to some length in analysing why comparisons in this field between national industrial relations systems and labour market arrangements are rather difficult to perform. Having done that, the author argues that regulation theory is of little help in understanding our diachronic question — why we went through a flexibility cycle — because such a theory does not make any strong bet on the causes of change in the institutional arrangements of labour markets and industrial relations. On the synchronic question — why the forms of the cycle have been so different cross‐nationally — the conclusion is that Regulation Theory can be useful as a focusing device, as an ideal‐type, but that a lot of nationally‐specific materials have to be added in order to obtain adequate answers.

The paper ends up with a methodological discussion on the statute of regulation theory. It is argued that it is neither theory nor history: it is a series of ideal‐types of system‐integration, connected by ex‐post, historical linkages.
Productivity Competitiveness among Non Cooperating Integrated Economies: A Negative‐Sum Game
Authors: Sardoni Sergio Bruno–Claudio
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: The strategies adopted by European countries during the 1970‘s and 1980‘s have been unsuccessful in their attempt to produce more employment. These strategies have been centred on attempts to improve the international position of a country at the expense of the others through increasing productivity and competitiveness. The negative effects on employment due to higher productivity should have been offset, in the longer run, by an increasing share of exports. But the eventual result has been that relative positions of countries have remained fundamentally unchanged. This is due to the fact that all countries adopted the same strategy. Aggressive strategies do not pay in terms of employment. More effective policies, in a situation characterized by accelerated technical progress, can be more easily implemented in a more co‐operative international context.

Even if there is no moral solidarity between the nearly related races of Europe, there is an economic solidarity which we cannot disregard. Even now the world markets are one. This is to put the issue on its lowest grounds. There are other arguments, which the most obtuse cannot ignore, against a policy of spreading and encouraging further the economic ruin of great countries (J.M. Keynes) 18
Some Critical Reflections on the Principles and Instruments of the Welfare State
Authors: Roberti Paolo
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: The crisis of the welfare state continues to be associated with the ‘hypertrophic‘ growth of social expenditure in public sector budgets and with the fiscal crisis of the state. This approach is refuted in this paper and preference is given to an explanation of the problems of the welfare state which attributes them to a complex set of (interrelated) causes, among which the most salient are: the crisis of principles and objectives; the inability to combine social principles and objectives with those of the market; and the limits of a system which, although capable of enormous ‘churning‘, only succeeds in producing, in most circumstances, zero‐sum games. In order to corroborate these theses, a number of reflections are developed on six themes which can be regarded as illustrative of the main ailments afflicting current social policy systems in industrialized countries.

If every individual were reared in conditions as favourable to health as science can make them, received an equally thorough and stimulating education up to sixteen, and knew on reaching manhood that, given a reasonable measure of hard work and good fortune, he and his family could face the risks of life without being crushed by them, the most shocking of existing inequalities would be on the way to disappear. Sharp contrasts of pecuniary income might indeed remain, as long as society were too imperfectly civilized to put an end to them. But the range of life corrupted by their influence would be narrower than today. It would cease to be the rule for the rich to be rewarded, not only with riches, but with a preferential share of health and life, and for the penalty of the poor to be not merely poverty, but ignorance, sickness and premature death (K.H. Tawney) 1.
Stylised Facts and the Labour Demand Curve
Authors: Newell Andrew , Symons James S. V.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: The paper demonstrates that there is a simple, robust negative relationship between employment and real wages, detectable in the macroeconomic data of most countries, if it is looked for in the right way. This is the stylised fact of the title.
More Jobs Through Less Employment Protection? Evidence for West Germany
Authors: Buechtemann Christoph F.
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: In reaction to growing criticism of the allegedly negative employment effects of job protection regulations (lay‐off and dismissal restraints), the West German government in 1985 introduced new legislation facilitating the conclusion of temporary (i.e. fixed‐term) work contracts in order to stimulate employment growth (‘Employment Promotion Act 1985‘AZPA).

The research unit ‘Labour Market and Employment‘ at the WZB has evaluated the employment and labour market impact of the new legislation for the period 1985‐1988, and apart from providing a detailed analysis of the socio‐economic and institutional diversity of job arrangements covered by the category of temporary (i.e. fixed‐term) employment, the project‘s focus has been on the impact of minor changes in the institutional frame‐ work as effected by the EPA on firms‘ employment policies, as well as on the overall level of employment.

Results show that like in most other European countries the temporary work force in Germany has considerably grown over the past years in both absolute and relative terms, this increase, however, being largely due to cyclical factors as well as medium‐term structural changes on the supply and demand side of the labour market rather than to changes in the regulatory framework as effected by the EPA.

The impact of the new regulations on firms‘ hiring decisions and on the overall number of hirings in the total economy have to be regarded as rather modest, in fact amounting to not more than an estimated 25,000 additional hires per year or roughly 0.5|X% of all employment contracts concluded in the private sector. This marginal positive impact on firms‘ employment decisions, however, is counterbalanced by unintended substitution effects and an increase in involuntary quits arising from them when labour demand declines. Even under the overall positive employment development given in the period under investigation the net employment effects of the EPA temporary work legislation thus are shown to be at best marginal. In case of a deterioration of the overall economic situation, however, the increase in temporary job arrangements supported by the new legislation is likely to lead to accelerated workforce adjustments by firms and thus over time to result in a depression of the overall level of employment. From a theoretical point of view, the findings suggest that measures aiming at de‐regulating labour relations such as the EPA largely fail to modify essential behavioral parameters of economic actors in economic environments which for decades have adjusted to a relatively high level of welfare state regulation, as has been the case in Western Germany.
A Structural Model of Trade Union Behaviour under Uncertainty, with Sticky Wage
Authors: Parodi Giuliana
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: Trade union concern for job security is modelled under asymmetric information about labour demand, with rigid wage. Sequential decision processes are discussed, for the individual, on whether to join the union (utility defined over consumption and leisure); for the union, about the contribution to charge (utility defined over level of membership and level of contributions); for the employer, on level of labour to hire (profit maximizer). Equilibrium solutions, and ‘disequilibrium‘ solutions with shocked output price, are provided in a general and algebraic formulation; simulations with 1982 British data are shown, with shocks on probability of fall in output price, on technology, and on working time.
Productivity in the Italian Administration. Methods, Comparisons and Results
Authors: Pennella Giuseppe
Published: June 2007

ABSTRACT: The systems of remuneration for the public administration sector and its relation to productivity are something of a mystery. In this paper the author stresses the need for a new theoretical and methodological approach to this problem.

The author illustrates individual cases of incentivation covering various aspects of Public Administration, reporting the techniques adopted, the main ideological approach, the problems focused on and the would‐be success achieved. Finally, the paper presents a methodological model of application for the public sector and makes some general evaluations of how these techniques could be successfully applied.
Changing Firms, Changing Work: Skills, Careers and Pay
Authors: Accornero Aris
Published: June 2007

Abstract. The aim of this paper is to outline the main transformations in the firm's organization, with special reference to the consequences of the flexibility issue on work in a post‐Taylor‐Fordistic age. In examining the new features of jobs on the labour market, the paper underlines the ongoing changes in skills and careers, both on the demand and supply side. Moreover, the author sketches some important innovations in the remuneration systems at firm level, which compel unions to give uneasy, strategic answers in terms of industrial relations.
Employment and Productivity
Authors:   OECD
Published: June 2007

Abstract. The paper examines the (potential) effects of new technologies on productivity and job growth.

In particular the nature and causes of the “productivity paradox” are firstly dealt with. Even though the leading edge sectors show higher than average productivity growth, since the early 1970s aggregate productivity measures have declined.

This paper examines several possible explanations of this phenomenon, concluding that new technologies and the related issue of organisational, institutional and social change provide the most significant explanation.

“Replacing a steam engine with one or more electric motors, leaving the power distribution system unchanged, appears to have been the usual juxtaposition of a new technology upon the framework of an old one…Shaft and belt power distribution systems were in place and manufacturers were familiar with their problems. Turning line shafts with motors was an improvement that required modifying only the front end of the system… As long as the electric motors were simply used in place of steam engines to turn long line shafts, the shortcomings of mechanical power distribution systems remained.”
Statistics and the Single Market
Authors: Siesto Vincenzo
Published: June 2007

Abstract. At the end of 1992customs barriers will fall and the European Internal Market will be realized, as envisaged by the Single European Act signed in 1986 by the EEC's member countries. Statistical Offices are preparing to meet the new information requirements from all the economic and social forces of the new Europe. EUROSTAT planned a politically endorsed statistical programme and established the European Statistical Planning Committee, enlarging the tasks of the Conference of the Heads of National Statistical Institutes. Each National Statistical Institute is urgently required to improve the comparability of statistics and implement the harmonised projects of the European Statistical Programme.

Official statistics will conform to the new requirements in order to supply the business world, national governments, the EEC authorities and public opinion with up‐to‐date information to face a wider, more open and competitive market. The business world will focus its attention on information on the flows by sectors and very small areas. Statistics on intra‐community foreign trades will shift from customs bills to new tools more directly assigned to national statistical bodies. National governments and EEC countries will need more information on population behaviour as to employment, consumptions, use of leisure time, fruition of public facilities, and social security, as well as more precise estimates of GDP, now the basic contribution to EEC budget. Citizens and public opinion will ask for timely information on migrations, social mobility, income distribution. Demographic projections show the European population is progressively ageing, unemployment is bound to decrease and women are going to be more present within society and the labour market. Information on the home care of elderly people. health, environment, crime prevention and the status of women in general will have to be supplied.

Presently Statistics Offices have greater experience in two essential domains: conceptual frameworks and the techniques for conceptual statistical representation of the investigated events. Moreover, the improving of computer technology will provide substantial help to survey methodologies and data processing.
The Italian Pension System: Development and Effects on Income Distribution and Poverty
Authors: Franco Daniele , Morcaldo Giancarlo
Published: June 2007

Abstract. The study defines the role that supplementary funded pension plans could play in the Italian pension system. It also outlines the redistributive effects of pension benefits drawing on a survey of households' income. Finally it provides a brief assessment of the main problems of the Italian pension system.
An Analysis of Firms' Compliance to Minimum Wage Legislation
Authors: Fluckiger Yves , Persson Inga
Published: June 2007

Abstruct

The growth of long‐term unemployment is the main reason behind the persistence of high rates of unemployment in Western Europe. The paper presents the two main theories, duration dependency and sorting, that have been used to account for emergent and persistent long‐term unemployment. Both theories are hysteresis theories in the sense that they explain how the actual level of unemployment can be a function of past unemployment. Against this background the paper examines the evolution of long‐term unemployment in Sweden and its demographic composition. The focus is on what has happened to long‐term unemployment during the economic recovery experienced by Sweden and on the role of labour market policy measures targeted towards the long‐term unemployed in overcoming unemployment persistence. It is shown that there was a significant time‐lag before the recovery made inroads into the ratio of long‐term unemployment. There was a frunsifory, but also a permanent hysteresis effect. The reaction to the recovery varied between age groups, long‐term unemployment among older workers showing most persistence. There was an interaction effect in that the policy measures helped the long‐term unemployed take advantage of the recovery. The authors then introduce the concept of a nuturul rule of long‐ferm unemployment (NAIRLU) and make empirical estimates of this rate for Sweden. The character and composition of the Swedish natural rate of longterm unemployment is then examined.
An Analysis of Firms' Compliance to Minimum Wage Legislation
Authors: Fluckiger Yves
Published: June 2007

In this paper the author investigates firms' behaviour under minimum wage legislation and analyses the effect on employment and wages of different penalisation systems that may be used to enforce compliance with the law. In particular. he shows that additional fines imposed on repeated violations increase the degree of compliance among firms with no previous violations. Moreover, higher detection probability associated with more serious violations does not lead to full compliance but does result in higher wages. Thus, if the inspection efforts increase rapidly with the seriousness of the violation, then noncompliance may be reduced significantly.
Job Losses, Unemployment Duration and New Jobs in Spain
Authors: Alba‐Ramirez Alfonso
Published: June 2007

Abstract. This article focuses on workers who permanently lost their jobs for involuntary reasons in Spain. We use a 1985 representative survey of the Spanish labor force containing retrospective questions related to workers' mobility. We evaluate several characteristics of job losers, as compared to other unemployed workers with experience by the end of 1985. Thereafter, an analysis of job losses addresses the following questions: (1) What types of jobs were lost? (2) How did workers perform after their job loss? (3) How long have they been out of work? (4) What are the characteristics of the new jobs found?
The Effects of Technical Change on Skill Requirements: An Empirical Analysis
Authors: Russo Margherita
Published: June 2007

Abstract. This essay offers an empirical analysis of the effects of technical change on skill. Firstly, with the increasing diffusion of more and more mechanization and, in this decade, with the advent of microelectronics, this theme has been widely debated both in theory and in empirical analyses. These latter are usually based on a measurement of skill in terms of the parameters adopted in the job evaluation. My critique to that approach is both on the job evaluation criteria adopted, and on the unclear distinction between quantitative and qualitative effects of technical change on labour requirements. The following analysis will show the importance of that distinction in interpreting data.

The case study is the production of ceramic tiles in Italy. The analysis is articulated in three parts. The first discusses an indicator of technical level of ceramic tile production. This indicator refers to the ‘scale of mechanization’ proposed by Bright in 1958. The oldest and the most up‐to‐date techniques in use in the early 1980's are compared with regard both to the level of mechanization and to the number of workers required at each task at factory level. This analysis is the premiss for the distinction between quantitative and qualitative effects of technical change. This—together with the discussion of a measurement of skill based on job content—is examined in the second part. The conclusion of the case study and a critical analysis of the main contributions on this topic are in the third part.
Unemployment Benefits and Employment Policies in the Presence of a Strong Trade Union: A Comparison
Authors: Rosati Furio Camillo
Published: June 2007

Abstract. The paper analyses, within a game theoretic approach, the consequences on private employment and real wages of a government policy of raising unemployment benefits following a fall in employment. The effects of such a policy are then compared with those arising from a more conventional demand policy. Under the policy regime described the reaction of the unions will cause, when the economy is hit by a negative shock on employment, a tendency for the real wage to rise and for private employment to decrease further. As far as the comparison of such policy with a policy of direct employment by the government is concerned we have reached the following conclusions. A policy based on unemployment benefit will give rise to a smaller increase in the real wage than a policy based on public employment if the change in the marginal utility of being employed due to change in the unemployment benefit is smaller than the utility that the union will obtain from an extra employed person. Moreover it appears that a policy based on unemployment benefits has a smaller negative effect on private employment, than a policy based on direct employment. if such a policy is adopted just after an employment benefits represent also a subsidy to the firms. We have shown that the effects on the real wage of the Policy rule considered are in this case stronger. The effects on employment depend on the relative strength of the union reaction and of the policy's supply side effects.
Dynamic Updating of Labour Force Estimates: JARES
Authors: Bellacicco Antonio , Russo Aldo
Published: June 2007

Abstract. In this paper a new algorithm is proposed in order to produce an automatic dynamic compound estimator of the labour force based on an interactive scheme. The proposed algorithm, JARES, is based on the probability estimator of Jaynes based on the notion of maximum entropy of a given probability distribution with a constraint on the average of an external information.

The iterative scheme is based on the solution of a set of linear equations which represent the algebraic relationships between the weights and the estimates.
The Earnings Assimilation of Immigrants
Authors: Aguíiar Renato , Gusafsson Björn
Published: June 2007

Abstract. Earnings assimilation in Sweden is empirically addressed using a random sample of native Swedes and immigrants belonging to two different immigrant cohorts. The results show that the assimilation process differs for the two cohorts. Only the first cohort catches up with its native counterpart. These results also showed that the earnings of immigrants deteriorate with age faster than those. of native Swedes, after reaching a maximum level. This can happen because immigrants decrease their working hours faster than the native Swedes as they get older. Our results also suggest a different effect of the business cycle on the determination of earnings for immigrants and natives.
Microfoundations of Unemployment Theory
Authors: Lindbeck Assar
Published: June 2007

Abstract. Both the efficiency wage theory and the insider‐outsider theory are promising attempts to explain the existence of unemployment. These theories also explain why workers are often laid‐off or fired, rather than retained at lower wages than the initial ones when there is a reduction in the demand for labour. The type of unemployment that is explained in these theories may also be called “involuntary” in a well‐defined way; the distinction between voluntary and involuntary unemployment is then made on the basis of the constraints that apply for economic agents. This paper tries to pin down such constraints, and to investigate whether various theories of unemployment are able to answer the fundamental questions that a good theory of unemployment should be able to answer.
Union Wage Setting, Employment and Investment: a Survey of Theory and Empirical Evidence
Authors: — Marcel Lever , van Veen Tom
Published: June 2007

Abstract. This paper provides a survey of recent theoretical and empirical research on union wage setting, employment and investment. The basic models of union wage setting and employment are presented in a unified framework. The distinction between insiders and outsiders is introduced as an extension of the basic models. Empirical evidence on union preferences and on the performance of the various models is accessibly ordered. Finally, attention is paid to the effects of strategic behaviour between union and firm on wages, employment and investment.
Is the Labour Market Adjustment in Poland Surprising?
Authors: Rutkowski Michal
Published: June 2007

Abstract. On the basis of the brief review of developments in employment and wages in Poland during the stabilization program in 1990, this paper tries to provide critical comments on the two often expressed opinions: that the fall in employment was surprisingly small compared to the fall in output, and that the tax‐based incomes policy played a major role in forcing a huge drop in real earnings. It is argued that the actual proportions of the fall in output and employment were in line with specific features of the “overheated” shortage economy, which existed prior to the stabilization program. Since wages were not a “nominal anchor” for most of 1990, other reasons for the astonishing downward flexibility of real wages are analyzed. It is suggested that during the labour market adjustment, the rational strategy of employees was to accept a large, real wage cut in exchange for keeping their employment. Contrary to widespread opinion, it might also be argued that incomes policy, in a short and medium run, will play a much more important role in containing wage pressure than it has until now.
Atypical Employment Relations and Government Policy in Europe
Authors: Delsen Lei
Published: June 2007

Abstract. This paper analyses government policy towards the two major forms of atypical work in Europe: part‐time employment and temporary work. It is submitted that the policies implemented promote the volume of marginal part‐time employment and temporary work. The policies aiming at more temporary jobs did not result in additional employment; they merely resulted in a redistribution of unemployment and a shift in the recruitment patterns in the direction of subsidised temporary jobs. Too much emphasis on numerical flexibility is not without danger. Countries run the risk that employers will not pay sufficient attention to the source of their long‐term flexibility, manpower training. I t is argued that regular part‐time work is an alternative for uncertain temporary jobs, Its potential expansion is considerable. Some recommendations are put forward to promote regular part‐time jobs and improve the position of flexible part‐time workers and temporary workers.
An Explanation of the Educational Structure of Occupations
Authors: Beekman Theo , Dekker Ron , de Grip Andries , Heijke Hand
Published: June 2007

Abstract. This article sets out to disclose the factors underlying the development of the educational structure of occupations. The shares of educational classes in the employment of occupations in economic sectors are taken as points of departure. The explanatory variables are technological progress and substitution processes generated by shifts in the skill structure of labour supply. For each educational class, an estimation is made with the help of a linear model, the estimation being that of Weighted Least Squares.
Job Tenure, Labour Mobility and Wage Profiles
Authors: Lucifora Claudio
Published: June 2007

Abstract. The features and the length of the attachment of workers to firms represent a central aspect of the labour relationship. The length of service is an important determinant of wages and of non‐pecuniary benefits; it affects internal mobility in the firm, and insulates workers with long job tenure from unemployment. In this paper it is argued that the traditional “spot” labour market Characterization is difficult to reconcile with the existence of long term employment relationships. A number of alternative theories which predict the existence of an employer‐worker attachment proposed, and their implications discussed. The relevance of long term employment relationships is then tested using micro‐data for the Italian manufacturing industry. An appropriate methodology for the analysis of the duration of employment is developed. and separate “job tenure” equations for white and blue collar workers are estimated. A higher educational attainment ‐ ceteris paribus‐ appears to increase the probability of a job separation; conversely, a higher working experience, previous to the current job, tends to reduce it. The effect of firm size is negative, as larger organizations seem to favour longer employment spells. Outside opportunities show a strong positive effect on the probability of separation. Finally, conditional on the current wage, the probability of leaving the job increases with the length of time worked. However, when the unconditional outcome is considered, separation decline with tenure; in this case. it is argued, the wage effect more than outweighs the conditional effect. This result is consistent with the predictions of both “specific” human capital and job matching theories.
The Implementation of European Community Equality Legislation on Social Security: International Experiences*
Authors: Schunter‐Kleemann Susanne
Published: June 2007

Abstract. The article evaluates the EC Equality Directives in matters of social security adopted by the Council in 1978 and 1986. We ask whether these EC Directives are appropriate instruments to reduce manifest disadvantages women face in the national social security systems. In the first part, some features are singled out in the European pension systems which are particularly disadvantageous to women. In the second, the EC Directives are analysed with respect to their material scope and the underlying normative concepts. Thirdly, some problems with respect to the legislative implementation of the Social Security Directives in the UK, the Netherlands and Germany are discussed. It is argued that the Directives, in prescribing equal treatment, do not lead to substantial improvement for women.
Flow and stock analysis of Polish unemployment: January 1990‐June 1991*
Authors: Góra Marek , Lehmann Hartmut
Published: June 2007

Abstract. Unemployment is and will be for the foreseeable future one of the major issues of economies in transition. Not onIy is unemployment in post‐communist economies a socially explosive problem; what happens on the unemployment front allows us to also make inferences about the state of the transition process in general. In this paper we look at Polish unemployment as it evolved from January 1990 to June 1991. A framework is developed which allows us to discuss flows into and out of unemployment. In analyzing the determinants of the various flows we discuss the macroeconomic environment brought about by the reforms and the role of prices and wages. However, we stress above all institutional and structural factors which have an impact on labour flows in the Polish post‐communist economy. The stocks of several variables are also analyzed. We relate the trends of some unemployment stocks (especially the stocks of school leavers and group layoffs) to the trend of the overall stock of unemployment. We also look at the trends of vacancies and of various UIV ratios and touch upon the short run and long run trends of employment by sector. The main conclusion of the paper is that the high level of unemployment in Poland is neither due to the elimination of hidden unemployment (it actually increased in 1990!) nor a result of restructuring. The level of unemployment is high because of large inflows from outside the labour force and because hirings have been much fewer than in previous years while separations have only been slightly greater.