bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Mujeres trabajadoras jóvenes y pensiones en Chile
Authors: Undurraga Rosario , Becker Javiera
Published: November 2019

El envejecimiento de la población presenta desafíos al sistema de pensiones. Chile tiene pensiones de vejez particularmente bajas: más de la mitad de los casos se ubica bajo la línea de la pobreza, y las pensiones de las mujeres son peores que la de los hombres. Esto genera preocupación de las jóvenes ante su pensión futura, aunque llevan una vida "presentista". Por medio de entrevistas semi-estructuradas, esta investigación cualitativa explora las percepciones sobre el sistema de pensiones y las posibles estrategias previsionales de mujeres entre 20 y 35 años, profesionales y no-profesionales de Santiago, Chile, para mantenerse económicamente en su vejez. Los resultados muestran una percepción negativa del sistema de pensiones, desconfianza en este como principal sustento económico en la vejez, y conciencia de diferencias por nivel socioeconómico, en contraste con baja conciencia de género. Sobre las estrategias previsionales, predomina la idea de ahorrar por sobre su práctica, incluyendo inversiones inmobiliarias para paliar las bajas pensiones. Se concluye que existe un descontento generalizado hacia el sistema previsional y una predominancia del presente. Esto varía según nivel educacional y conformación familiar. Los resultados instan a evaluar estos factores al analizar políticas públicas en estas materias.
¿Estudiar para trabajar? Transición educativa-laboral de los egresados de la Educación Técnico Profesional en Chile
Authors: Sepúlveda Valenzuela Leandro , Valdebenito Infante María José
Published: November 2019

Esta investigación analiza los modelos de trayectorias post egreso de la enseñanza media que experimentan jóvenes que estudian en la modalidad de educación técnico profesional, y el lugar que ocupa la experiencia laboral una vez finalizados sus estudios secundarios. Este estudio longitudinal combina técnicas de indagación de tipo cuantitativo y cualitativo, aplicadas a una muestra de estudiantes que cursaban su último año de enseñanza media en 69 establecimientos educacionales de la Región Metropolitana de Chile entre los años 2011 y 2016. A partir de la construcción de conglomerados y el análisis de la experiencia de los sujetos recogidas en entrevistas semi-estructuradas, se constató el carácter heterogéneo de la experiencia de los egresados de este modelo formativo, el rol instrumental atribuido al trabajo en el proceso de tránsito educativo-laboral y particularmente, el peso que adquieren las experiencias y decisiones personales en las respectivas trayectorias. Relevar estos procesos y las subjetividades asociadas, permite analizar de una manera más compleja cuestiones tales como la masificación de la educación superior y la postergación de la entrada al mercado del trabajo que experimentan las nuevas generaciones.
Juventud sub(des)empleada: De lo precario a la resiliencia
Authors: Weston Alia , Imas J. Miguel , Manning Jen , Donnelly Paul , Ngwerume Kudzayi
Published: November 2019

En este artículo se explora las experiencias de jóvenes irlandeses y zimbabuenses que trabajan en condiciones precarias. Sus experiencias fueron estudiadas a través de sus contextos bajo la pregunta: ¿Cómo jóvenes no empleados en el Sur y Norte Global resiliencia y agencia mientras navegan por la precariedad económica? El artículo se basa en literatura sobre juventud del Norte y del Sur Global, enfatizando la precariedad socio-económica, agencia, y resiliencia, y entrevistas realizadas en Irlanda y Zimbabue, bajo un enfoque narrativo poscolonial. Los hallazgos muestran que, en el siglo XXI, los jóvenes el Irlanda (del Norte Global) y Zimbabue (del Sur Global) viven distintas precariedades económicas. Del mismo modo, al aplicar una mirada poscolonial se descubre que las experiencias de estos jóvenes no son tan claras o distintas como sugiere la literatura. Se concluye que las comparaciones poco realistas (neo) coloniales entre los jóvenes del Norte y del Sur Global, crean suposiciones y estereotipos que (mal)informan la política y apoyan intervenciones creadas en respuesta a los desafíos percibidos.
Editorial Sección Temática: Juventud, trabajo y desigualdades
Authors: Rivera-Aguilera Guillermo , García Quiroga Manuela , López Cortés Oscar , Pérez-Roa Lorena , Costhek Abilio Ludmila
Published: November 2019

Las transformaciones del trabajo en las últimas décadas han tenido fuertes repercusiones en la población juvenil. El aumento del desempleo, la flexibilización del trabajo, la promoción del emprendimiento y la consolidación del neoliberalismo afectan significativamente a los jóvenes. La problemática del desempleo juvenil ha sido asociada tradicionalmente a los países pobres y en vías de desarrollo, sin embargo, en los últimos años se ha presenciado cómo este fenómeno también afecta fuertemente a las economías más avanzadas del planeta. Los datos oficiales de la Organización Internacional del Trabajo, señalan que 70,9 millones de jóvenes entre 15 y 24 años se encuentran desempleados actualmente, siendo su mayoría mujeres. Esta Sección Temática está integrada por un total de nueve artículos seleccionados a partir de un total de 26 manuscritos recibidos. Los trabajos presentados abordan temas diversos, entre ellos tenemos: a) deuda y juventud, b) precarización del trabajo y políticas de emprendimiento, c) uberización del trabajo, d) Ni-Nis e inclusión al mundo del trabajo, y e) trayectorias educativas.
Anthropogenic aerosol forcing under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways
Authors: Lund Marianne T. , Myhre Gunnar , Samset Bjørn H.
Published: November 2019

Abstract. Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are expected to change drastically over
the coming decades, with potentially significant climate implications. Using
the most recent generation of harmonized emission scenarios, the Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) as input to a global chemistry transport and
radiative transfer model, we provide estimates of the projected future
global and regional burdens and radiative forcing of anthropogenic aerosols
under three contrasting pathways for air pollution levels: SSP1-1.9,
SSP2-4.5 and SSP3-7.0. We find that the broader range of future air
pollution emission trajectories spanned by the SSPs compared to previous
scenarios translates into total aerosol forcing estimates in 2100 relative
to 1750 ranging from −0.04 in SSP1-1.9 to −0.51 W m−2 in
SSP3-7.0. Compared to our 1750–2015 estimate of −0.55 W m−2, this shows
that, depending on the success of air pollution policies and socioeconomic
development over the coming decades, aerosol radiative forcing may weaken by
nearly 95 % or remain close to the preindustrial to present-day level. In
all three scenarios there is a positive forcing in 2100 relative to 2015,
from 0.51 in SSP1-1.9 to 0.04 W m−2 in SSP3-7.0. Results
also demonstrate significant differences across regions and scenarios,
especially in South Asia and Africa. While rapid weakening of the negative
aerosol forcing following effective air quality policies will unmask more of
the greenhouse-gas-induced global warming, slow progress on mitigating air
pollution will significantly enhance the atmospheric aerosol levels and risk
to human health in these regions. In either case, the resulting impacts on
regional and global climate can be significant.
Using wavelet transform to analyse on-road mobile measurements of air pollutants: a case study to evaluate vehicle emission control policies during the 2014 APEC summit
Authors: Li Yingruo , Tan Ziqiang , Ye Chunxiang , Wang Junxia , Wang Yanwen , Zhu Yi , Liang Pengfei , Chen Xi , Fang Yanhua , Han Yiqun , Wang Qi , He Di , Wang Yao , Zhu Tong
Published: November 2019

Abstract. Vehicle emissions are a major source of air pollution in urban areas and
thus greatly impact air quality in the megacity Beijing. Various vehicle
emission control policies have been implemented at great cost, but there is
a lack of appropriate methods to evaluate the effectiveness of such
policies. Here we developed a wavelet transform method (WTM) to evaluate the
effectiveness of vehicle emission control policies during the 2014
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, taking advantage of high-time-resolution mobile measurements of NO, NOx, BC, CO, SO2, and
O3 made around the 4th Ring Road of Beijing. The WTM decomposed on-road
mobile measurements into high- and low-frequency components, where the
former represents immediate vehicle emissions, and the latter represents the
atmospheric background in addition to accumulated on-road emissions. The
high-frequency component of the WTM (CH_freq.), which
represents the concentrations of pollutants from vehicle emissions
(Cveh.), was used to evaluate the changes in vehicle emission intensity
in the full-APEC period (3–12 November 2014) relative to the pre-APEC (28 October to 2 November 2014) and post-APEC (13–22 November 2014) periods,
during which different vehicle emission control policies were implemented.
Our results suggest that the Cveh. of NO, NOx, BC, and CO in the
full-APEC period were 19.4 %, 17.7 %, 0.0 %, and 50.0 % lower,
respectively, than those in the pre-APEC period during daytime and were
50.0 %, 47.3 %, 62.5 %, and 50.0 % lower than those in the post-APEC
period during daytime. The Cveh. of NO, NOx, BC, and CO in the
full-APEC period were 65.3 %, 65.4 %, 14.3 %, and 50.0 % lower than
those in the post-APEC period during night-time. These results indicate that
the vehicle emission control policies implemented during the full-APEC
period were effective. Using on-road mobile measurements in combination with
the WTM, we developed a new method for the evaluation of pollution control
policies.
The combined effect of two westerly jet waveguides on heavy haze in the North China Plain in November and December 2015
Authors: An Xiadong , Sheng Lifang , Liu Qian , Li Chun , Gao Yang , Li Jianping
Published: November 2019

Abstract. Severe haze occurred in the North China Plain (NCP) from November to December 2015, with a wide spatial range and long duration. In this paper, the combined effect of two westerly jet waveguides on haze in the NCP was investigated based on visibility observational data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results showed that the two Rossby waveguides within the westerly jet originating from the Mediterranean were responsible for the haze formation in the NCP. The Rossby wave propagated eastward along the subtropical westerly jet and the polar front jet, causing an anomalous anticyclone over the Sea of Japan and anticyclonic wind speed shear at 850 hPa over the NCP, which enhanced the anomalous descending air motion in the middle and lower troposphere and subsequently resulted in a stable atmosphere. Furthermore, the Rossby wave weakened the East Asia trough and Ural ridge, and strengthened the anomalous southerly wind at 850 hPa over the coastal areas of east China, decelerating the East Asia winter monsoon. The above meteorological conditions modulated haze accumulation in November and December 2015. Meanwhile, continuous rainfall related to ascending motion due to Rossby wave propagation along the subtropical westerly jet occurred in a large area of southern China. The latent heat released by rainfall acted as a heat source, inducing convection over South China. This further strengthened the ascending motion over South China so that the descending motion over the NCP was maintained, favoring the maintenance of severe haze. This study is of great significance to elucidate the formation and maintenance mechanism of large-scale haze in the NCP in late fall and boreal winter.
Technical Note: Equilibrium droplet size distributions in a turbulent cloud chamber with uniform supersaturation
Authors: Krueger Steven K.
Published: November 2019

Abstract. In a laboratory cloud chamber that is undergoing Rayleigh-Bénard convection, supersaturation is produced by isobaric mixing. When aerosols (cloud condensation nuclei) are injected into the chamber at a constant rate, and the rate of droplet activation is balanced by the rate of droplet loss, an equilibrium droplet size distribution (DSD) can be achieved. We derived analytic equilibrium DSDs and PDFs of droplet radius and squared radius for conditions that could occur in such a turbulent cloud chamber when there is uniform supersaturation. The loss rate due to fall out that we used assumes that (1) the droplets are well-mixed by turbulence, (2) when a droplet becomes sufficiently close to the lower boundary, the droplet’s terminal velocity determines its probability of fall out per unit time, and (3) a droplet’s terminal velocity follows Stokes’ Law (so it is proportional to its radius squared). Given the chamber height, the analytic PDF is determined by the mean supersaturation alone. From the expression for the PDF of the radius, we obtained analytic expressions for the first five moments of the radius, including moments for truncated DSDs. We used statistics from a set of measured DSDs to check for consistency with the analytic PDF. We found consistency between the theoretical and measured moments, but only when the truncation radius of the measured DSDs was taken into account. This consistency allows us to infer the mean supersaturations that would produce the measured PDFs in the absence of supersaturation fluctuations. We found that accounting for the truncation radius of the measured DSDs is particularly important when comparing the theoretical and measured relative dispersions of the droplet radius. We also included some additional quantities derived from the analytic DSD: droplet sedimentation flux, precipitation flux, and condensation rate.
Ozone-vegetation feedback through dry deposition and isoprene emissions in a global chemistry-carbon-climate model
Authors: Gong Cheng , Lei Yadong , Ma Yimian , Yue Xu , Liao Hong
Published: November 2019

Abstract. Ozone-vegetation feedback is essential to tropospheric ozone (O3) concentrations. The O3 stomatal uptake damages leaf photosynthesis and stomatal conductance and, in turn, influences O3 dry deposition. Further, O3 directly influences isoprene emissions, an important precursor of O3. The effects of O3 on vegetation further alter local meteorological fields and indirectly influence O3 concentrations. In this study, we apply a fully coupled chemistry-carbon-climate global model (ModelE2-YIBs) to evaluate changes in O3 concentrations caused by O3–vegetation interactions. Different parameterizations and sensitivities of the effect of O3 damage on photosynthesis, stomatal conductance, and isoprene emissions (IPE) are implemented in the model. The results show that O3-induced inhibition of stomatal conductance increases surface O3 on average by + 2.1 (+ 1.4) ppbv in eastern China, + 1.6 (− 0.5) ppbv in the eastern U.S., and + 1.3 (+ 1.0) ppbv in western Europe at high (low) damage sensitivity. Such positive feedback is dominated by reduced O3 dry deposition, in addition to the increased temperature and decreased relative humidity from weakened transpiration. Including the effect of O3 damage on IPE slightly reduces surface O3 concentrations by influencing precursors. However, the reduced IPE weakens surface shortwave radiative forcing of secondary organic aerosols leading to increased temperature and O3 concentrations in the eastern U.S. This study highlights the importance of interactions between O3 and vegetation with regard to O3 concentrations and the resultant air quality.
Studies of the horizontal inhomogeneities in NO2 concentrations above a shipping lane using ground-based multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) measurements and validation with airborne imaging DOAS measurements
Authors: Seyler André , Meier Andreas C. , Wittrock Folkard , Kattner Lisa , Mathieu-Üffing Barbara , Peters Enno , Richter Andreas , Ruhtz Thomas , Schönhardt Anja , Schmolke Stefan , Burrows John P.
Published: November 2019

Abstract. This study describes a novel application of an “onion-peeling” approach to multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy (MAX-DOAS) measurements of shipping emissions aiming at investigating the strong horizontal inhomogeneities in NO2 over a shipping lane. To monitor ship emissions on the main shipping route towards the port of Hamburg, a two-channel (UV and visible) MAX-DOAS instrument was deployed on the island Neuwerk in the German Bight, 6–7 km south of the main shipping lane. Utilizing the fact that the effective light path length in the atmosphere depends systematically on wavelength, simultaneous measurements and DOAS retrievals in the UV and visible spectral ranges are used to probe air masses at different horizontal distances to the instrument to estimate two-dimensional pollutant distributions. Two case studies have been selected to demonstrate the ability to derive the approximate plume positions in the observed area. A situation with northerly wind shows high NO2 concentrations close to the measurement site and low values in the north of the shipping lane. The opposite situation with southerly wind, unfavorable for the on-site in situ instrumentation, demonstrates the ability to detect enhanced NO2 concentrations several kilometers away from the instrument. Using a Gaussian plume model, in-plume NO2 volume mixing ratios can be derived from the MAX-DOAS measurements. For validation, a comparison to airborne imaging DOAS measurements during the NOSE campaign in July 2013 is performed, showing good agreement between the approximate plume position derived from the onion-peeling MAX-DOAS and the airborne measurements as well as between the derived in-plume NO2 volume mixing ratios (VMRs).
TCCON and NDACC XCO measurements: difference, discussion and application
Authors: Zhou Minqiang , Langerock Bavo , Vigouroux Corinne , Sha Mahesh Kumar , Hermans Christian , Metzger Jean-Marc , Chen Huilin , Ramonet Michel , Kivi Rigel , Heikkinen Pauli , Smale Dan , Pollard David F. , Jones Nicholas , Velazco Voltaire  A. , García Omaira E. , Schneider Matthias , Palm Mathias , Warneke Thorsten , De Mazière Martine
Published: November 2019

Abstract. Column-averaged dry-air mole fraction of CO (XCO) measurements are obtained from two ground-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) spectrometer networks: the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) and the Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC). In this study, the differences between the TCCON and NDACC XCO measurements are investigated and discussed based on six NDACC–TCCON sites using data over the period 2007–2017. A direct comparison shows that the NDACC XCO measurements are about 5.5 % larger than the TCCON data at Ny-Ålesund, Bremen, and Izaña (Northern Hemisphere), and the absolute bias between the NDACC and TCCON data is within 2 % at Saint-Denis, Wollongong and Lauder (Southern Hemisphere). The hemispheric dependence of the bias is mainly attributed to their smoothing errors. The systematic smoothing error of the TCCON XCO data varies in the range between 0.2 % (Bremen) and 7.9 % (Lauder), and the random smoothing error varies in the range between 2.0 % and 3.6 %. The systematic smoothing error of NDACC data is between 0.1 % and 0.8 %, and the random smoothing error of NDACC data is about 0.3 %. For TCCON data, the smoothing error is significant because it is higher than the reported uncertainty, particularly at Southern Hemisphere sites. To reduce the influence from the a priori profiles and different vertical sensitivities, the scaled NDACC a priori profiles are used as the common a priori profiles for comparing TCCON and NDACC retrievals. As a result, the biases between TCCON and NDACC XCO measurements become more consistent (5.6 %–8.5 %) with a mean value of 6.8 % at these sites. To determine the sources of the remaining bias, regular AirCore measurements at Orléans and Sodankylä are compared to co-located TCCON measurements. It is found that TCCON XCO measurements are 6.1 ± 1.6 % and 8.0 ± 3.2 % smaller than the AirCore measurements at Orléans and Sodankylä, respectively, indicating that the scaling factor of TCCON XCO data should be around 1.0000 instead of 1.0672. Further investigations should be carried out in the TCCON community to determine the correct scaling factor to be applied to the TCCON XCO data. This paper also demonstrates that the smoothing error must be taken into account when comparing FTIR XCO data, and especially TCCON XCO data, with model or satellite data.
Modelling the habitat preference of two key Sphagnum species in a poor fen as controlled by capitulum water retention
Authors: Gong Jinnan , Roulet Nigel , Frolking Steve , Peltola Heli , Laine Anna M. , Kokkonen Nicola , Tuittila Eeva-Stiina
Published: November 2019

Abstract. Current peatland models generally lack dynamic feedback between the plant community structure and the environment, although the vegetation dynamics and ecosystem functioning are tightly linked. Realistic projections of peatland response to climate change requires including vegetation dynamics in ecosystem models. In peatlands, Sphagnum mosses are key engineers. The species composition in a moss community varies primarily following habitat moisture conditions. Hence, modelling the mechanisms in controlling the habitat preference of Sphagna is a good first step for modelling the community dynamics in peatlands. In this study, we developed the Peatland Moss Simulator (PMS), a process-based model, for simulating community dynamics of the peatland moss layer that results in habitat preferences of Sphagnum species along moisture gradients. PMS employed an individual-based approach to describe the variation of functional traits among shoots and the stochastic base of competition. At the shoot-level, growth and competition were driven by net photosynthesis, which was regulated by hydrological processes via capitulum water retention. The model was tested by predicting the habitat preferences of S. magellanicum and S. fallax, two key species representing dry (hummock) and wet (lawn) habitats in a poor fen peatland (Lakkasuo, Finland). PMS successfully captured the habitat preferences of the two Sphagnum species, based on observed variations in trait properties. Our model simulation further showed that the validity of PMS depended on the interspecific differences in capitulum water retention being correctly specified. Neglecting the water-retention differences led to the failure of PMS to predict the habitat preferences of the species in stochastic simulations. Our work highlights the importance of capitulum water retention to the dynamics and carbon functioning of Sphagnum communities in peatland ecosystems. Studies of peatland responses to changing environmental conditions thus need to include capitulum water processes as a control on the vegetation dynamics. For that our PMS model could be used as an elemental design for the future development of dynamic vegetation models for peatland ecosystems.
Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling
Authors: Myrvoll-Nilsen Eirik , Sørbye Sigrunn Holbek , Fredriksen Hege-Beate , Rue Håvard , Rypdal Martin
Published: November 2019

Abstract. Reliable quantification of the global mean surface temperature (GMST) response to radiative forcing is essential for assessing the risk of dangerous anthropogenic climate change. We present the statistical foundations for an observation-based approach, using a stochastic linear-response model that is consistent with the long-range temporal dependence observed in global temperature variability. We have incorporated the model in a latent Gaussian modeling framework, which allows for the use of integrated nested Laplace approximations (INLAs) to perform full Bayesian analysis. As examples of applications, we estimate the GMST response to forcing from historical data and compute temperature trajectories under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for future greenhouse gas forcing. For historic runs in the Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble, we estimate response functions and demonstrate that one can infer the transient climate response (TCR) from the instrumental temperature record. We illustrate the effect of long-range dependence by comparing the results with those obtained from a 1-box energy balance model. The software developed to perform the given analyses is publicly available as the R-package INLA.climate.
Blending SMAP, Noah and In Situ Soil Moisture Using Multiple Methods
Authors: Zhang Ning , Quiring Steven M. , Ford Trent W.
Published: November 2019

Abstract. Soil moisture can be obtained from in-situ measurements, satellite observations, and model simulations. This study evaluates different methods of combining model, satellite, and in-situ soil moisture data to provide an accurate and spatially-continuous soil moisture product. Three independent soil moisture datasets are used, including an in situ-based product that uses regression kriging (RK) with precipitation, SMAP L4 soil moisture, and model-simulated soil moisture from the Noah model as part of the North American Land Data Assimilation System. Triple collocation (TC), relative error variance (REV), and RK were used to estimate the error variance of each parent dataset, based on which the least squares weighting (LSW) was applied to blend the parent datasets. These results were also compared with that using simple average (AVE). The results indicated no significant differences between blended soil moisture datasets using errors estimated from TC, REV or RK. Moreover, the LSW did not outperform AVE. The SMAP L4 data have a significant negative bias (−18 %) comparing with in-situ measurements, and in-situ measurements are valuable for improving the accuracy of hybrid results. In addition, datasets using anomalies and percentiles have smaller errors than using volumetric water content, mainly due to the reduced bias. Finally, the in situ-based soil moisture and the simple-averaged product from in situ-based and Noah soil moisture are the two optimal datasets for soil moisture mapping. The in situ-based product performs better when the sample density is high, while the simple-averaged product performs better when the station density is low, or measurement sites are less representative.
Tracking the global flows of atmospheric moisture
Authors: Tuinenburg Obbe A. , Staal Arie
Published: November 2019

Abstract. Many processes in hydrology and Earth system science relate to moisture recycling, the contribution of terrestrial evaporation to precipitation. For example, the effects of land-cover changes on regional rainfall regimes depend on this process. To study moisture recycling, a range of moisture tracking models are in use that are forced with output from atmospheric models, but differ in various ways. They can be Eulerian (grid-based) or Lagrangian (trajectory-based), have two or three spatial dimensions, and rely on a range of other assumptions. Which model is most suitable depends on the purpose of the study, but also on the quality and resolution of the data with which it is forced. Recently, the high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis dataset has become the state-of-the-art, paving the way for a new generation of moisture tracking models. However, it is unclear how the new data can best be used to obtain accurate estimates of atmospheric moisture flows. Here we develop a set of moisture tracking models forced with ERA5 data and systematically test their performance regarding continental evaporation recycling ratio, distances of moisture flows, and footprints of evaporation from seven point sources across the globe. We report simulation times to assess possible trade-offs between accuracy and speed. Three-dimensional Lagrangian models were most accurate and ran faster than Eulerian versions for tracking water from single grid cells. The rate of vertical mixing of moisture in the atmosphere was the greatest source of uncertainty in moisture tracking. We conclude that the recently improved resolution of atmospheric reanalysis data allows for more accurate moisture tracking results in a Lagrangian setting, but that considerable uncertainty regarding turbulent mixing remains. We present an efficient Lagrangian method to track atmospheric moisture flows from any location globally using ERA5 reanalysis data and make the code for this model publicly available.
Actors, actions, and uncertainties: optimizing decision-making based on 3-D structural geological models
Authors: Stamm Fabian Antonio , de la Varga Miguel , Wellmann Florian
Published: November 2019

Abstract. Uncertainties are common in geological models and have a considerable impact on model interpretations and subsequent decision-making. This is of particular significance for high-risk, high-reward sectors. Recent advances allows us to view geological modeling as a statistical problem that we can address with probabilistic methods. Using stochastic simulations and Bayesian inference, uncertainties can be quantified and reduced by incorporating additional geological information. In this work, we propose custom loss functions as a decision-making tool that builds upon such probabilistic approaches. As an example, we devise a case in which the decision problem is one of estimating the uncertain economic value of a potential fluid reservoir. For subsequent true value estimation, we design a case-specific loss function to reflect not only the decision-making environment, but also the preferences of differently risk-inclined decision makers. Based on this function, optimizing for expected loss returns an actor's best estimate to base decision-making on, given a probability distribution for the uncertain parameter of interest. We apply the customized loss function in the context of a case study featuring a synthetic 3-D structural geological model. A set of probability distributions for the maximum trap volume as the parameter of interest is generated via stochastic simulations. These represent different information scenarios to test the loss function approach for decision-making. Our results show that the optimizing estimators shift according to the characteristics of the underlying distribution. While overall variation leads to separation, risk-averse and risk-friendly decisions converge in the decision space and decrease in expected loss given narrower distributions. We thus consider the degree of decision convergence to be a measure for the state of knowledge and its inherent uncertainty at the moment of decision-making. This decisive uncertainty does not change in alignment with model uncertainty but depends on alterations of critical parameters and respective interdependencies, in particular relating to seal reliability. Additionally, actors are affected differently by adding new information to the model, depending on their risk affinity. It is therefore important to identify the model parameters that are most influential for the final decision in order to optimize the decision-making process.
Effect of prescribed sea surface conditions on the modern and future Antarctic surface climate simulated by the ARPEGE atmosphere general circulation model
Authors: Beaumet Julien , Déqué Michel , Krinner Gerhard , Agosta Cécile , Alias Antoinette
Published: November 2019

Abstract. Owing to increase in snowfall, the Antarctic Ice Sheet surface mass balance is expected to increase by the end of the current century. Assuming no associated response of ice dynamics, this will be a negative contribution to sea-level rise. However, the assessment of these changes using dynamical downscaling of coupled climate model projections still bears considerable uncertainties due to poorly represented high-southern-latitude atmospheric circulation and sea surface conditions (SSCs), that is sea surface temperature and sea ice concentration. This study evaluates the Antarctic surface climate simulated using a global high-resolution atmospheric model and assesses the effects on the simulated Antarctic surface climate of two different SSC data sets obtained from two coupled climate model projections. The two coupled models from which SSCs are taken, MIROC-ESM and NorESM1-M, simulate future Antarctic sea ice trends at the opposite ends of the CMIP5 RCP8.5 projection range. The atmospheric model ARPEGE is used with a stretched grid configuration in order to achieve an average horizontal resolution of 35 km over Antarctica. Over the 1981–2010 period, ARPEGE is driven by the SSCs from MIROC-ESM, NorESM1-M and CMIP5 historical runs and by observed SSCs. These three simulations are evaluated against the ERA-Interim reanalyses for atmospheric general circulation as well as the MAR regional climate model and in situ observations for surface climate. For the late 21st century, SSCs from the same coupled climate models forced by the RCP8.5 emission scenario are used both directly and bias-corrected with an anomaly method which consists in adding the future climate anomaly from coupled model projections to the observed SSCs with taking into account the quantile distribution of these anomalies. We evaluate the effects of driving the atmospheric model by the bias-corrected instead of the original SSCs. For the simulation using SSCs from NorESM1-M, no significantly different climate change signals over Antarctica as a whole are found when bias-corrected SSCs are used. For the simulation driven by MIROC-ESM SSCs, a significant additional increase in precipitation and in winter temperatures for the Antarctic Ice Sheet is obtained when using bias-corrected SSCs. For the range of Antarctic warming found (+3 to +4 K), we confirm that snowfall increase will largely outweigh increases in melt and rainfall. Using the end members of sea ice trends from the CMIP5 RCP8.5 projections, the difference in warming obtained (∼ 1 K) is much smaller than the spread of the CMIP5 Antarctic warming projections. This confirms that the errors in representing the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation in climate models are also determinant for the diversity of their projected late 21st century Antarctic climate change.
Substantial meltwater contribution to the Brahmaputra revealed by
satellite gravimetry
Authors: Yi Shuang , Song Chunqiao , Heki Kosuke , Kang Shichang , Wang Qiuyu , Chang Le
Published: November 2019

Abstract. High Asia glaciers were observed to be reducing the fastest in the southeastern Tibet Plateau (SETP), where vast amounts of glacier and snow (GS) feed the streamflow of the Brahmaputra, a transboundary river linking the world's two most populous countries China and India. However, the low temporal resolutions in previous studies obscured the seasonal accumulation/ablation variations, and their modelling estimates were divergent. Here we use monthly satellite gravimetry observations from August 2002 to June 2017 to estimate GS mass variation in the SETP. We find that the spring-accumulation type glaciers and winter snow in the SETP are the most abundant in May. This is in stark contrast to seasonal variations in terrestrial water storage, which reaches its maximum in August and is controlled by summer precipitation. These two seasonal variations are mutually orthogonal and can be easily separated in time-variable gravity observations. Our results show a summer meltwater contribution of 43 ± 8 Gt to the Brahmaputra. This value could help to resolve previous divergent modelling estimates and underlines the importance of meltwater to the Brahmaputra streamflow. The high sensitivity between GS melting and temperature on both annual and monthly scales suggests that the Brahmaputra will suffer from not only changes in total annual discharge, but also an earlier runoff peak due to the ongoing global warming.
Antecedentes para una psicología de las masas presentes en el pensamiento de Niccolò Machiavelli
Authors: Branda Corina Inés
Published: November 2019

El artículo rastrea en dos de los textos importantes de la obra de Niccolò Machiavelli (1469-1527): El Príncipe y los Discursos sobre la Primera Década de Tito Livio, elementos conceptuales inherentes a la noción psicoanalítica psicología de las masas. En el pensamiento del florentino es dable hallar cierta teoría psicológica, la cual es concebida como expresión de deseos y afectos humanos, a la cual el autor arriba a partir de una aguda observación empírica y del conocimiento del pasado. Machiavelli analiza la ciudad como un campo de deseos en pugna, el deseo del pueblo de no ser oprimido y el de los nobles de ambición ilimitada. En el análisis que despliega el autor sobre estos deseos en conflicto, pero sobre todo en la relación entre el príncipe, los nobles y el pueblo, así como en la caracterización que realiza de éste, es posible hallar elementos en ciernes de la psicología de las masas desarrollos luego por el psicoanálisis freudiano.
Mediating the Effect of Cognitive Flexibility in the Relationship between Psychological Well-Being and Self-Confidence: A Study on Turkish University Students
Authors: Malkoç Asude , Mutlu Aynur Kesen
Published: November 2019

This study examined the role of self-confidence and cognitive flexibility in psychological well-being. The study looked into whether cognitive flexibility mediates the relationship between self-confidence and psychological well-being. The study involved the participation of 284 university students (192 female and 92 male) enrolled in the Faculty of Education at a private university in Istanbul, Turkey. Data was collected via the Self- Confidence Scale, Flourishing Scale and Cognitive Flexibility Scale. The results of our multiple regression analysis revealed that self-confidence and cognitive flexibility statistically predict psychological well-being. Self-confidence and cognitive flexibility were found to explain 38% of the variance in psychological well-being. Furthermore, cognitive flexibility served as a mediator in the relationship between self-confidence and psychological well-being.
Comparison of Strength, Heart Rate, Oxygen Saturation and Technical Test Values of 12–14 Year Male Tennis Players in Competition Period
Authors: SUNA Gürhan , ALP Mahmut
Published: November 2019

This study seeks to compare and contrast 12 to 14 years old male tennis players in terms of strength, heart rate, oxygen saturation and technical test values. A total of 15 tennis players took part in the study after filling in a parental consent form. The average age, height and weight of the male tennis players were found to be 13.1 ± 1.06 years, 154.07 ± 5.04 cm, 36.5 ± 3.85 kg respectively. In comparing of the values, the preliminary test was applied in the first week while the last test was applied in the eighth week, taking anatomical adaptation into consideration. During that period, the players were exposed to a 90-minute training three days a week. Both during the pretest and the last test, the players were exposed to 30 seconds push-up, sit-up, ropeskipping, AOS Technical Test, SpO2 tests and their heart rates were measured. The values obtained were compared using “paired t test” with a statistical software. The significance level was taken as “p < 0.05”. Having compared the results of the first and last tests applied to the players, statistically significant differences were found between push-up, sit-up and ropeskipping rates; AOS technical test values, resting pulse, first set of heart rate values, second set of heart rate values (p < 0.05); however, there was significant difference between the first SpO2, first set of hear rate values, second set of heart rates and second set of SpO2 with regard to the pre- and post-test. It is possible to conclude that the technical trainings applied to the players improved the biomotoric and some of the physiological properties of the players, which, by extension, enhanced the performances.
Green Tribology for the Sustainable Engineering of the Future
Authors: Kalin Mitjan , Polajnar Marko , Kus Maja , Majdič Franc
Published: November 2019

Environmental awareness and especially the legislation that requires the reduction of polluting emissions are strong driving forces toward more sustainable engineering and greener solutions in the design, use and overall life span of machinery. However, providing novel concepts that will exclude non-environmentally adapted, but over many years developed and optimized solutions, is not an easy task. It clearly requires time if the same level of technical performance is to be maintained. Green tribology is one of the fields that has been closely involved in these actives in the past two decades. The research and use of tribology science and technology toward green and sustainable engineering include natural material usage, lower energy consumption, reducing natural oil resources, reducing pollution and emissions, fewer maintenance requirements and thus reduced machinery-investment cycles. This report is not an attempt to cover all the existing concepts, attempts or literature available in the field, but mainly those efforts that our group has been working on over the past 20 years, which mainly includes novel green-lubrication concepts that come from exploring and exploiting surface engineering through the use of diamond-like-carbon (DLC) coatings.
Nowa-stara tożsamość. Z cyklu: Barycz & Saramowicz. Najnowsze dzieła architektoniczne
Authors: Barycz Rafał , Saramowicz Paweł
Published: November 2019

KAMIENICA STARE PODGÓRZE W KRAKOWIE. Krakowskie
Podgórze, położone w sercu zabytkowego Krakowa, do 1914 r. było samodzielnym
miastem. Dziś jest jednym z najbardziej atrakcyjnych do inwestowania
terenów. Autorzy przedstawiają historię Podgórza. Kreślą architektoniczny
i urbanistyczny kontekst, w którym według projektu Biura Architektonicznego
Barycza i Saramowicza przy ul. Zamoyskiego 44 w Krakowie
wznoszony jest wielorodzinny budynek mieszkaniowy.
Projekt kamienicy został zainspirowany naturą skalistych wzgórz
krzemionkowych pobliskiego Wzgórza Krzemionek, co znajduje odzwierciedlenie
w formie bryły oraz wizualnym odbiorze materiału
użytego w elewacjach. Poprzez taki zabieg odniesiono się do tożsamości
miejsca. Zewnętrzna powłoka budynku została ujednolicona
Plan
O AUTORACH:
Dr Rafał Barycz i dr Paweł Saramowicz są jednymi z najwybitniejszych
polskich architektów. Wychowankowie grazkiej oraz weneckiej
szkoły architektonicznej, w 1991 r. założyli w Krakowie
Biuro Architektoniczne Barycz i Saramowicz. Są autorami kilkudziesięciu
innowacyjnych budynków z segmentu architektury użyteczności
publicznej, mieszkaniowej wielorodzinnej, willowej oraz
rezydencjalnej, edukacji, sportu i rekreacji, przemysłu oraz handlu,
jak również wnętrz. Zostali uhonorowani licznymi nagrodami
architektonicznymi. Ogłosili kilkadziesiąt publikacji w kraju
i za granicą, dotyczących zagadnień nowoczesnego projektowania
architektonicznego. Ich twórczości poświęconych jest kilkaset
publikacji w literaturze fachowej.
W 2002 r. Barycz i Saramowicz byli współtwórcami Wydziału
Architektury i Sztuk Pięknych Krakowskiej Akademii Andrzeja Frycza
Modrzewskiego, gdzie prowadzą mistrzowską klasę projektową.
Ci cenieni wychowawcy młodzieży architektonicznej są promotorami
wielu prac dyplomowych.
Rafał Barycz jest m.in. członkiem Miejskiej Komisji Urbanistyczno-
Architektonicznej Miasta Krakowa, Jury Plebiscytu Sztuki Architektury
„Polska Architektura XXL” oraz Kapituły Konkursu dla
Młodych Architektów miesięcznika „Builder”. [Red.]
0 2 5m
drogą implementacji materiałów o jednolitej kolorystyce i zbliżonej
fakturze. Został zastosowany galeriowy układ przestrzenno-komunikacyjny.
Przesuwne okiennice zapewniają obecność budowli w czasoprzestrzeni.
Konsolidacja wysoko zaawansowanych technologii
i budownictwa to postulat obecny w myśli architektonicznej mieszkalnictwa
już od czasów przedwojennych innowatorów.
Analiza historycznych i przestrzennych uwarunkowań oraz przywołanie
progresywnych postulatów mieszkalnictwa implikują nowatorski
charakter budynku, który został przedstawiony w artykule.
Arquitetura para o desenvolvimento de soluções embarcadas de internet das coisas aplicadas em redes elétricas inteligentes
Authors: Bernardo Glauber da Silva , Cunha Anderson Dourado , Silva Júnior Elias Teodoro da
Published: November 2019

As Redes Elétricas Inteligentes (Smart Grids) empregam vários dispositivos para monitorar, analisar e controlar a própria rede. Esses dispositivos são implantados em grande quantidade em usinas de energia, centros de distribuição e nas instalações dos consumidores. Uma Smart Grid requer conectividade, automação e rastreamento para tais dispositivos. Por outro lado, a Internet das Coisas (IoT) tem sido utilizada para prover esses serviços, mas ainda há uma série de desafios a serem superados. Os principais deles se relacionam à alta diversidade de plataformas de hardware e software utilizadas para implementar aqueles computadores embarcados que estão mais próximos da infraestrutura da rede elétrica, chamados dispositivos de borda. Para reduzir o tempo de desenvolvimento dessas aplicações embarcadas, este artigo propõe um middleware IoT, denominado Smart Grids Applications Middleware (SGAM), facilitando a criação de soluções embarcadas para controle, monitoramento e medição em Redes Elétricas Inteligentes. Um caso de uso de monitoramento remoto de ativos foi desenvolvido e é apresentado para demostrar o funcionamento da arquitetura proposta.
Controle de Interseções em Redes de Transporte com Suporte de Comunicação Veicular: uma Experimentação usando a Plataforma Arduino
Authors: Schmidt Leonardo de A. , Pasin Marcia
Published: November 2019

Mobilidade está se tornando um problema constante nas grandes e médias cidades. No futuro, com a implementação de redes veiculares (VANETs), novas soluções poderão ser propostas para melhorar o escoamento do trânsito. Por exemplo, semáforos poderão ser automaticamente ajustados para colaborar na redução de congestionamentos. Enquanto a tecnologia de VANETs não está plenamente disponível, o uso de plataformas robóticas miniaturizadas como estratégia de validação é uma solução factível. Este artigo descreve uma solução o controle semafórico apoiada por comunicação veicular. Um semáforo virtual, implementado com o apoio de uma VANET, é usado para coordenar os fluxos de veículos concorrentes enquanto pequenos carros-robôs são usados para simular o fluxo. Os carros são equipados com placa de controle, um conjunto de sensores e com módulos de comunicação Wi-Fi. A Solução aqui descrita segue a arquitetura cliente-servidor. O semáforo virtual opera como servidor e os carros-robôs são clientes. Um cliente se comunica via Wi-Fi com o servidor para alocar um slot de tempo e espaço para a passagem de uma interseção de vias. O caráter experimental deste trabalho permite demostrar, ainda que de forma preliminar, a possibilidade do uso do suporte de rede de comunicação veicular para a implementação do semáforo virtual.
O Balanceamento de Réplicas em um Cluster HDFS com base na Confiabilidade dos Racks
Authors: Fazul Rhauani Weber Aita , Cardoso Paulo Vinicius , Barcelos Patrícia Pitthan
Published: November 2019

A replicação de dados é um dos principais mecanismos de tolerância a falhas utilizados pelo HDFS. Porém, a forma de posicionamento das réplicas entre os nodos computacionais afeta diretamente o balanceamento e o desempenho do sistema. O HDFS Balancer é uma solução disponibilizada pelo Apache Hadoop que visa equilibrar a distribuição dos dados. Todavia, sua política de operação atual não permite endereçar demandas de disponibilidade e confiabilidade ao redistribuir as réplicas entre os racks do cluster. Esse trabalho apresenta uma estratégia de balanceamento customizada para o HDFS Balancer baseada em fatores de confiança, que são calculados para cada rack a partir da taxa de falhas de seus nodos. Após detalhar a implementação, conduziu-se uma investigação experimental que permitiu validar e demonstrar a efetividade da estratégia desenvolvida.