bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Nobel Laureate Robert E. Lucas, Jr.: Architect of Modern Macroeconomics
Authors: Chari V. V
Published: August 2011

In 1995, Robert E. Lucas was awarded the Nobel Memorial Prize for Economic Science. This review places Lucas's work in a historical context and evaluates the effect of this work on the economics profession. Lucas's central contribution is that he developed and applied economic theory to answer substantive questions in macroeconomics. Economists today routinely analyze systems in which agents operate in complex probabilistic environments to understand interactions about which the great theorists of an earlier generation could only speculate. This sea change is due primarily to Lucas.
Data Watch: The World Bank's Living Standards Measurement Study Household Surveys Margaret E. Grosh and Paul Glewwe
Authors: Grosh Margaret E , Glewwe Paul
Published: August 2011

Since 1985, the World Bank has been collecting household survey data in developing countries that provide a rich source of information for assessing household welfare, understanding household behavior, and evaluating the impact of government policies. This article describes these household surveys, known as Living Standards Measurement Study (LSMS) surveys, and explains how to obtain their data. LSMS surveys have been implemented in over twenty developing countries and have been used to analyze poverty, labor markets, health and education pricing policies, determinants of school performance, savings and consumption smoothing, health and nutrition policies, and gender and fertility issues.
Retrospectives: Price Indexes and General Exchange Values
Authors: Persky Joseph
Published: August 2011

The spreading use of indexes in the nineteenth century raised basic questions concerning the nature of absolute value in a neoclassical world of relative exchange values. Where Walsh held that the 'right' index for the general exchange value of money would identify true values, Jevons, Marshall, and especially Keynes were highly skeptical that such values could be defined without interpersonal comparisons of utility. Subsequent political debates over the use of indexation, especially those of World War II and the current period, have underlined the difficulty of identifying a true cost-of-living index applicable to all components of the population.
Classroom Games: Speculation and Bubbles in an Asset Market
Authors: Ball Sheryl B , Holt Charles A
Published: August 2011

This paper describes a classroom exercise in which students trade assets of uncertain value in a sequence of market periods. Assets pay one-dollar dividends at the end of each period, but once the dividend is paid there is fixed probability that the asset will be destroyed. Dividends and probabilities are chosen so that the fundamental value is constant over time. Speculative bubbles can be caused by divergent expectations about other traders' valuations of the asset. This exercise provides an interactive framework that facilitates discussions of discounting, rational expectations, and backward induction.
Working to Improve the Consumer Price Index
Authors: Abraham Katharine G , Greenlees John S , Moulton Brent R
Published: August 2011

In this paper, we first comment on the recent (1996) report of the Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index, appointed by the U.S. Senate Finance Committee, and the recommendations it contains. We then describe some of the initiatives currently underway at the Bureau of Labor Statistics—some of which were undertaken before the appearance of the Advisory Commission's report, others of which are part of a Consumer Price Index improvement initiative that was included as part of the President's 1998 budget proposal—which attempted to address the bias issues that were highlighted by the Advisory Commission.
Index Number Issues in the Consumer Price Index
Authors: Diewert W. Erwin
Published: August 2011

This paper addresses the following issues: what is an appropriate theoretical consumer price index that statistical agencies should attempt to measure; what are some of the possible sources of biases between the fixed base Laspeyres price index that statistical agencies produce and the theoretical cost-of-living index; and what factors will make the biases larger or smaller and how will the biases change as the general inflation rate changes? This paper addresses all of the issues mentioned above and discusses what statistical agencies can do to reduce the biases.
Quality Change in Price Indexes
Authors: Nordhaus William D
Published: August 2011

Price indexes provide the fundamental building blocks for measuring the general price level along with real incomes and real output. But the most important single price index for the United States, the CPI, has been criticized as significantly underestimating the pace of quality change. This paper sketches the issues involved in the measurement of quality change in price indexes. It reviews the theory of quality change, discusses how the Bureau of Labor Statistics deals with quality change, and provides examples of measurement issues in practice. It concludes with a proposal to resolve the massive uncertainties in this area.
The Consumer Price Index: A Research Agenda and Three Proposals
Authors: Pollak Robert A
Published: August 2011

This paper argues that dealing with current concerns about the CPI within the framework of economic theory requires developing the theory of the cost-of-living index under more general assumptions than have thus far been standard. It examines three neglected but critical issues that should rank high on the research agenda because of their practical implications for index number construction: Whose cost-of-living index? Why shop? and What is a good? It concludes by discussing the intersection between the technical problems of constructing the CPI and the political problems of indexing taxes and transfers.
Did We Lose the War on Poverty?
Authors: Jorgenson Dale W
Published: August 2011

Official U.S. poverty statistics based on household income imply that the proportion of the U.S. population below the poverty level reached a minimum in 1973, giving rise to the widespread impression that the elimination of poverty is impossible. By contrast, poverty estimates based on household consumption have fallen through 1989 and imply that the war on poverty was a success. This paper recommends replacing income by consumption in official estimates of poverty in order to obtain a more accurate assessment of the impact of income support programs and economic growth on the level and distribution of economic well-being among households.
Has Poverty Gotten Worse?
Authors: Triest Robert K
Published: August 2011

The official U.S. government figures showed an increase in the poverty rate from 11.1 percent in 1973 to 13.8 percent in 1995. However, some maintain that this upward trend is due to defects in the official poverty measure. This paper analyzes alternative measures of poverty and concludes that nearly all reasonable alternatives show similar trends in poverty over the recent past. There has been an increase in the percentage of people in the United States who are poor, although one can argue that the official Census figures either understate or somewhat overstate the increase.
Detecting Discrimination
Authors: Heckman James J
Published: August 2011

The evidence on discrimination produced from the audit method is examined. Audits survey the average firm and not the marginal firm which determines the level of market discrimination. Taken on its own terms, there is little evidence of labor market discrimination from audit methods. The validity of audit methods is critically dependent on unverified assumptions about equality across race/gender groups of the distributions of unobserved (by audit designers) productivity components acted on by firms and about the way labor markets work. Audits can find discrimination when none exists and can disguise it when it does.
Discrimination in the Post-Civil Rights Era: Beyond Market Interactions
Authors: Loury Glenn C
Published: August 2011

This comment argues that discrimination against blacks remains important, especially in labor markets, but that its extent is modest both by historical standards and in relation to supply-side racial disparities. It contends that the racial skills gap is endogenous, reflecting the effects of historical and ongoing discrimination; and that the moral obligation to reduce disparities in skills between the races is no less than the obligation to fight market discrimination. Finally, it suggests that imperfect information may be a more pervasive and intractable cause of racial discrimination today than is behavior based on agents' purported distaste for associating with blacks.
Space: The Final Frontier
Authors: Krugman Paul
Published: August 2011

Traditionally, until the early 1990s, spatial economics -- the study of where economic activity takes place and why -- was pretty much neglected. Even now not one of the best-selling introductory textbooks in economics contains a single index entry for "location," "space," or "regions." In the last six or seven years, however, interest in spatial economics has surged. In this article I will try to summarize briefly the reasons for that surge; the key elements of the so-called "new economic geography;" the current state of research; and the prospects and difficulties facing this subfield of economics.
Forging Ahead and Falling Behind: The Rise and Relative Decline of the First Industrial Nation
Authors: Crafts Nicholas
Published: August 2011

This paper considers Britain's failure to maintain its lead in economic growth in the face of overtaking by the United States. Recent cliometric research is reviewed and it is argued that early nineteenth century Britain had a low growth potential by twentieth century standards and that the American growth of the early twentieth century was of a quite different kind. Neither traditional nor new growth theories can encompass this experience and it is suggested that natural resource endowments, location-specific learning processes, and the international migration of factors of production were central aspects of American overtaking of Britain.
Who Is a Member of the AEA?
Authors: Siegfried John J
Published: August 2011

The appointment of a new Secretary of the American Economic Association provides an opportunity for assessing the Association's membership trends and 'market coverage.' Toward these ends, the author has assembled information about trends in both aggregate Association membership and the proportion of academic economists who are members of the Association, and a snapshot of 1996 academic membership rates classified by academic ranks, types of colleges and universities, and individual institutions at which assistant professors earned their Ph.D.
Retrospectives: Real and Money Wage Rates
Authors: Dunlop John T
Published: August 2011

In the General Theory, John Maynard Keynes held money and real wage rates move in opposite directions. In expansion, prices increase faster because of increasing costs and a rise in the proportion of product going to profits. Neoclassical economists held similarly. Money illusion of workers supported their common view. The author's 1938 article rather showed a procyclical pattern, significant to macroeconomic models of the economy. Contemporary literature with new elements of compensation and new measures of wages supports a slightly procyclical relationship. Increased output and employment in expansion do not require lower real wages.
Evidence on Discrimination in Consumer Markets
Authors: Yinger John
Published: August 2011

Economists have contributed to the measurement of racial and ethnic discrimination in consumption and to the identification of its causes, especially in housing markets and car sales. To test the hypothesis that discrimination exists, economists have turned to regression analysis and to audits, a matched-pair survey technique. Economists also have developed audit-based measures of the incidence and severity of discrimination. Audit studies find continuing high levels of discrimination against minorities in the marketing of available housing and in car prices. Audit studies also find that discrimination can be caused both by economic agents' prejudice and by their search for profits.
Evidence on Discrimination in Mortgage Lending
Authors: Ladd Helen F
Published: August 2011

Much of the controversy about whether mortgage lenders discriminate against minorities can be explained in terms of the confusion about how to define discrimination. Based on the legal definition, careful studies of loan denial rates, such as that done by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, represent an appropriate method for testing for discrimination by lenders. Based on that study, it is quite clear that lenders discriminate. The fact that minorities have higher default rates on average than whites is irrelevant to the interpretation of the race coefficient in such models. Nonetheless, more research on and discussion about the relationship between the race of the applicant and delinquencies, defaults, and losses would be desirable.
Evidence on Discrimination in Employment: Codes of Color, Codes of Gender
Authors: Darity William A , Mason Patrick L
Published: August 2011

There is substantial racial and gender disparity in the American economy. As we will demonstrate, discriminatory treatment within the labor market is a major cause of this inequality. Yet, there appear to have been particular periods in which racial minorities, and then women, experienced substantial reductions in economic disparity and discrimination. Some questions remain: Why did the movement toward racial equality stagnate after the mid-1970s? What factors are most responsible for the remaining gender inequality? What is the role of the competitive process in elimination or reproduction of discrimination in employment? How successful has the passage of federal antidiscrimination legislation in the 1960s been in producing an equal opportunity environment where job applicants are now evaluated on their qualifications? To give away the answer at the outset, discrimination by race has diminished somewhat, and discrimination by gender has diminished substantially; neither employment discrimination by race or by gender is close to ending. The Civil Rights Act of 1964 and subsequent related legislation has purged American society of the most overt forms of discrimination, while discriminatory practices have continued in more covert and subtle forms. Furthermore, racial discrimination is masked and rationalized by widely-held presumptions of black inferiority.
What Has Economics to Say About Racial Discrimination?
Authors: Arrow Kenneth J
Published: August 2011

Racial discrimination pervades every aspect of a society in which it is found. It is found above all in attitudes of both races, but also in social relations, in intermarriage, in residential location, and, frequently, in legal barriers. It is also found in levels of economic accomplishment; that is, income, wages, prices paid, and credit extended. It is natural to suppose that economic analysis can cast light on the economic effects of racial discrimination. But the pervasiveness of the phenomenon must give us pause. Can a phenomenon manifest everywhere in the social world really be understood, even in only one aspect, by the tools of a single discipline? I want to explore here the scope and limits of ordinary economic analysis for understanding racial discrimination even in markets.
Deregulation and the Labor Market
Authors: Peoples James
Published: August 2011

This paper examines the earnings and employment effect of deregulation in the trucking, railroad, airlines, and telecommunications industries. Findings on nonmanagement workers suggest labor earnings fell sharply in trucking, somewhat in airlines, slightly in telecommunications, and barely in railroads. In contrast, the work force size dramatically increased in trucking and airlines, held steady in telecommunications, and fell dramatically in railroads. The earnings patterns of managers mirrors that of their highly unionized work force. These findings are interpreted as evidence that rent-sharing was not unique to union workers in these industries.
Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades
Authors: Bikhchandani Sushil , Hirshleifer David , Welch Ivo
Published: August 2011

Learning by observing the past decisions of others can help explain some otherwise puzzling phenomena about human behavior. For example, why do people tend to converge on similar behavior? Why is mass behavior prone to error and fads? The authors argue that the theory of observational learning, and particularly of informational cascades, has much to offer economics, business strategy, political science, and the study of criminal behavior.
Foreign Students in U.S. Doctoral Programs
Authors: Aslanbeigui Nahid , Montecinos Vero′nica
Published: August 2011

In 1996, foreigners represented over half of the doctoral student population in economics, up from 20 percent in 1972. This article presents a profile of foreign students in economics Ph.D. programs in the United States based on survey and interview data collected in 1996. In addition to exploring students' assessment of their education, interests and career plans, the authors offer explanations for the rising proportion of foreign students, explore the implications of this phenomenon, and suggest the need for further research on the teaching of economics and the practice of the profession, both in the United States and abroad.
Conflicts and Choices in Biodiversity Preservation
Authors: Metrick Andrew , Weitzman Martin L
Published: August 2011

The purpose of this article is to examine the preservation of biodiversity as an economic problem. Using a very simple prototype model, the authors discuss how to include diversity in the objective function and how to develop a simple cost-benefit ranking criterion for ordering priorities. Then they analyze data on endangered species preservation decisions in the United States to shed light on the conformity of theory with practice. A basic theme is that the core issue in biodiversity preservation today is the fuzziness of the objective function.
Economics of the Endangered Species Act
Authors: Brown Gardner M , Shogren Jason F
Published: August 2011

The Endangered Species Act of 1973 is one of our most far-reaching and controversial environmental laws. While the benefits of protecting endangered species accrue to the entire nation, a significant fraction of the costs are borne by the private landowners who shelter about 90 percent of the nearly 1,000 listed species. The pressure to know whether the social benefits of preservation exceed the private costs has thrust economics into ongoing reauthorization debate. This paper examines how economists can help better the odds that when society imposes and bears costs to protect endangered species, it will be more likely to succeed.
Takings, Compensation and Endangered Species Protection on Private Lands
Authors: Innes Robert , Polasky Stephen , Tschirhart John
Published: August 2011

Preserving endangered species on private land benefits the public, but may confer cost on landowners if property is 'taken.' Government compensation to landowners can offset costs, although the Endangered Species Act does not require compensation. The authors survey private economic incentives for species preservation created by alternative property rights and compensation regimes. Compensation will effect investments in land and the willingness of landowners to collect and impart information about their land's preservation value. The authors also address government incentives and how deadweight costs of compensation will influence design of property rights, and how government's susceptibility to interest group pressure may cause inefficient preservation.
An Interim Evaluation of Sulfur Dioxide Emissions Trading
Authors: Schmalensee Richard , Joskow Paul L , Ellerman A. Denny , Montero Juan Pablo , Bailey Elizabeth M
Published: August 2011

This paper summarizes recent empirical research on compliance costs and strategies and on permit market performance under the U.S. acid rain program, the first large-scale, long-term program to use tradeable emissions permits to control pollution. An efficient market for emissions permits developed in a few years, and this program more than achieved its early goals on time, and it cost less than had been projected. Because of expectation errors, however, investment was excessive, and permit prices substantially understate abatement costs. The tradeable permits approach has worked well, but it is not a miracle cure for environmental problems. Coauthors are Paul L. Joskow, A. Denny Ellerman, Juan Pablo Montero, and Elizabeth M. Bailey.
U.S. Industry Adjustment to Economic Deregulation
Authors: Winston Clifford
Published: August 2011

This paper develops a framework to analyze the long-run adjustment of U.S. industries to economic deregulation, highlighting the role of intensified competition, innovations in operations, marketing, and technology, and adjustments to external shocks. The author applies this framework to industries that have recently undergone substantial deregulation--airlines, motor carriers, railroads, banks, and natural gas--and concludes that these industries have become far more efficient because of deregulation and provided large benefits to consumers. He concludes that the same adjustment process and positive outcome for consumers will result from the forthcoming deregulation of communications and electricity.
State versus Private Ownership
Authors: Shleifer Andrei
Published: August 2011

Private ownership should generally be preferred to public ownership when the incentives to innovate and to contain costs must be strong. In essence, this is the case for capitalism over socialism, explaining the 'dynamic vitality' of free enterprise. The great economists of the 1930s and 1940s failed to see the dangers of socialism in part because they focused on the role of prices under socialism and capitalism and ignored the enormous importance of ownership as the source of capitalist incentives to innovate. Moreover, the concern that private firms fail to address 'social goals' can be addressed through government contracting and regulation, without resorting to government ownership. The case for private provision only becomes stronger when competition between suppliers, reputational mechanisms, the possibility of provision by private not-for-profit firms, as well as political patronage and corruption, are brought into play.
The Historical Background of the Communist Manifesto
Authors: Boyer George R
Published: August 2011

This paper attempts to place the economic analysis of Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels's Communist Manifesto in historical perspective. The author begins by summarizing the analysis of capitalist economic development in the Manifesto, and showing how it was strongly influenced by developments in the cotton industry in Manchester, England. He then examines the economic, social, and political conditions in Manchester and the surrounding cotton towns during the 1830s and 1840s, drawing on the views of contemporary observers and recent research by economic historians. The paper concludes by discussing why Marx and Engels's predictions for the imminent collapse of capitalism were wrong.
Two Cheers for CSWEP?
Authors: Bergmann Barbara R
Published: August 2011

The achievements (or lack thereof) of the AEA's Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession (CSWEP) are compared to those of analogous committees in three of our sister disciplines. In psychology, sociology, and history, committees of women professionals advocated and facilitated radical changes in the disciplines' treatment of issues involving gender. They also fought effectively for a far bigger role for women professionals in their disciplines. In the economics profession, the treatment of women's issues and the marginalization of women professionals remain problematic, despite the quarter century of CSWEP's existence.
The Reasons for CSWEP
Authors: Bell Carolyn Shaw
Published: August 2011

Both overt and covert instances of less than equal treatment for women and men were taken for granted until the so-called 'women's movement' of the l960s, of which CSWEP was a part. 'Economics is a man's field' summarizes the environment in the profession; this and other circumstances have been quickly forgotten. Focusing on ways to increase the supply of women in the profession, CSWEP created a roster of existing well-qualified economists and enabled their work to show up on programs and in journals. CSWEP economists demonstrated the power of changes at the margin; the experience could be useful today to replace the disputatious terms of quota or reverse discrimination. It should also stimulate further small changes that could yield much greater returns.
Policy Watch: Government Analysis of the Benefits and Costs of Regulation
Authors: Hahn Robert W
Published: August 2011

Recently, Congress has shown a greater interest in assessing the economic impact of regulation. This interest was driven in part by estimates that federal regulation costs several hundred billion dollars annually. In 1996, Congress required the director of the Office of Management and Budget to provide estimates of the total annual benefits and costs of individual regulations. This essay reviews the increasing use of economic analysis in regulatory decisionmaking, critically assesses the first 0MB report, and considers how the use of economic analysis can help inform regulatory decisionmaking. It argues that policymakers need to address a growing body of evidence that casts doubt on the effectiveness and efficiency of much regulation.
Symposium on Globalization in Perspective: An Introduction
Authors: Rodrik Dani
Published: August 2011

The benefits of international economic integration come with strings attached: international markets get greater say about the way national economies are managed and their wealth is distributed. The papers in the symposium that follow address these questions: how much globalization is there; how much does globalization constrain national autonomy; does globalization exacerbate inequality; how significant are the benefits of globalization; and are our governance structures adequate to deal with globalization?
Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy
Authors: Feenstra Robert C
Published: August 2011

The last few decades have seen a spectacular integration of the global economy through trade. The rising integration of world markets has brought with it a disintegration of the production process, however, in which manufacturing or services activities done abroad are combined with those performed at home. The author compares several different measures of foreign outsourcing and argues that they have all increased since the 1970s. He also considers the implications of globalization for employment and wages of low-skilled workers and for trade and regulatory policy, such as labor standards.
The Boundaries of the Firm Revisited
Authors: Holmström Bengt , Roberts John
Published: August 2011

Both transaction cost-economics and property-rights theories offer explanations of the boundaries of the firm based on ideas of ex post bargaining and holdup. These theories are quite distinct in their empirical predictions, but neither offers a satisfactory account of a large variety of observed practices. The authors discuss a number of such examples, where the boundaries of the firm seem to be determined by factors other than the need to protect investments, and where other mechanisms than the allocation of asset ownership are used to provide investment incentives. These examples indicate the need to enrich their theory of firm boundaries.
Corporate Finance, the Theory of the Firm, and Organizations
Authors: Bolton Patrick , Scharfstein David S
Published: August 2011

Much of the modern research on firm boundaries, following Ronald Coase (1937), assumes that firms are run by owner-managers. This contrasts with the agency literature, following Adolph Berle and Gardiner Means (1932), that emphasizes the problems that arise when managers are not owners. In this paper, the authors argue that a richer theory of the firm should integrate Coase and Berle and Means. They illustrate this point by reexamining the oft-cited merger of General Motors and Fisher Body. The authors also show how linking these literatures can be used to understand one of the key roles of corporate headquarters, the allocation of capital.
Eight Questions about Brain Drain
Authors: Gibson John , McKenzie David
Published: August 2011

The term “brain drain” dominates popular discourse on high-skilled migration, and for this reason, we use it in this article. However, as Harry Johnson noted, it is a loaded phrase implying serious loss. It is far from clear that such a loss actually occurs in practice; indeed, there is an increasing recognition of the possible benefits that skilled migration can offer both for migrants and for sending countries. This paper builds upon a recent wave of empirical research to answer eight key questions underlying much of the brain drain debate: 1) What is brain drain? 2) Why should economists care about it? 3) Is brain drain increasing? 4) Is there a positive relationship between skilled and unskilled migration? 5) What makes brain drain more likely? 6) Does brain gain exist? 7) Do high-skilled workers remit, invest, and share knowledge back home? 8) What do we know about the fiscal and production externalities of brain drain?
Migrant Remittances
Authors: Yang Dean
Published: August 2011

This article is about the economics of migrant remittances sent to developing countries. I review the overall magnitude of remittances and what current research reveals about the motivations for migrant remittances and what effects they have. I discuss field experimental evidence on migrant desires for control over the uses of their remittances. I highlight some key distinctive characteristics of remittances—such as their high frequency and relatively small individual magnitudes—as well as recent experimental evidence on the effect of reductions in remittance transaction fees, and outline a research agenda on the microeconomics of remittance decision making. Finally, I discuss what the future holds for remittances, considering aggregate trends but also approaches likely to be taken by international development agencies, national governments, the private sector, and academic economists.
Killing Me Softly: The Fetal Origins Hypothesis
Authors: Almond Douglas , Currie Janet
Published: August 2011

In the epidemiological literature, the fetal origins hypothesis associated with David J. Barker posits that chronic, degenerative conditions of adult health, including heart disease and type 2 diabetes, may be triggered by circumstances decades earlier, particularly, by in utero nutrition. Economists have expanded on this hypothesis, investigating a broader range of fetal shocks and circumstances and have found a wealth of later-life impacts on outcomes including test scores, educational attainment, and income, along with health. In the process, they have provided some of the most credible observational evidence in support of the hypothesis. The magnitude of the impacts is generally large. Thus, the fetal origins hypothesis has not only survived contact with economics, but has flourished.
Esther Duflo: 2010 John Bates Clark Medalist
Authors: Udry Christopher
Published: August 2011

Esther Duflo, winner of the 2010 John Bates Clark Medal, has made extraordinary contributions to development economics. She exemplifies and has played a vital role in the renaissance of development economics over the past decade. She has erected and inspired a research apparatus all over the developing world that integrates large-scale field experiments with economic theory to yield important insights for development policy and our understanding of behavior and institutions in developing countries. I'll divide my discussion of Esther's work into four categories: educational production, the economic lives of the poor, women as decisionmakers, and a broad category of market and policy failures. I will then offer some thoughts on Esther's role as a scholar–activist.
Retrospectives: Hume on Money, Commerce, and the Science of Economics
Authors: Schabas Margaret , Wennerlind Carl
Published: August 2011

David Hume (1711–1776) is arguably the most esteemed philosopher to have written in the English language. During his lifetime, however, Hume was as well if not better known for his contributions to political economy, particularly for the essays published as the Political Discourses (1752). Hume left his mark on the economic thought of the physiocrats, the classical economists, and the American Federalists. Adam Smith, who met Hume circa 1750, was his closest friend and interlocutor for some 25 years. Among modern economists, Hume's essays on money and trade have informed theorists of both Keynesian and Monetarist persuasions. In this essay, we begin by discussing Hume's monetary economics, and then spell out his theory of economic development, noting his qualified enthusiasm for the modern commercial system. We end with an assessment of his views on the scientific standing of economics, specifically his counterintuitive argument that economics could be epistemologically superior to physics.
Why Economists Should Conduct Field Experiments and 14 Tips for Pulling One Off
Authors: List John A
Published: August 2011

In this introduction to the symposium, I first offer an overview of the spectrum of experimental methods in economics, from laboratory experiments to the field experiments that are the subject of this symposium. I then offer some thoughts about the potential gains from doing economic research using field experiments and my own mental checklist of 14 steps to improve the chances of carrying out an economics field experiment successfully.
Field Experiments with Firms
Authors: Bandiera Oriana , Barankay Iwan , Rasul Imran
Published: August 2011

We discuss how the use of field experiments sheds light on long-standing research questions relating to firm behavior. We present insights from two classes of experiments—within and across firms—and draw common lessons from both sets. Field experiments within firms generally aim to shed light on the nature of agency problems. Along these lines, we discuss how field experiments have provided new insights on shirking behavior and the provision of monetary and nonmonetary incentives. Field experiments across firms generally aim to uncover firms' binding constraints by exogenously varying the availability of key inputs such as labor, physical capital, and managerial capital. We conclude by discussing some of the practical issues researchers face when designing experiments and by highlighting areas for further research.
Economics and Emigration: Trillion-Dollar Bills on the Sidewalk?
Authors: Clemens Michael A
Published: August 2011

What is the greatest single class of distortions in the global economy? One contender for this title is the tightly binding constraints on emigration from poor countries. Vast numbers of people in low-income countries want to emigrate from those countries but cannot. How large are the economic losses caused by barriers to emigration? Research on this question has been distinguished by its rarity and obscurity, but the few estimates we have should make economists' jaws hit their desks. The gains to eliminating migration barriers amount to large fractions of world GDP—one or two orders of magnitude larger than the gains from dropping all remaining restrictions on international flows of goods and capital. When it comes to policies that restrict emigration, there appear to be trillion-dollar bills on the sidewalk.
Impact on Informed Choice of Offering Antenatal Sickle Cell and Thalassaemia Screening in Primary Care: A Randomized Trial
Authors: Brown Katrina , Dormandy Elizabeth , Reid Erin , Gulliford Martin , Marteau Theresa
Published: August 2011

Objectives

Offering antenatal sickle cell and thalassaemia (SCT) screening early in pregnancy can maximize the range of post-screening choices available, however these benefits should not be obtained at the expense of informed choice. This study examined whether offering this screening in primary care at the time of pregnancy confirmation compromises women making informed choices.

Design

Partial factorial, cluster randomized controlled trial.

Setting

25 general practices in two socially deprived UK areas.

Participants

464 pregnant women offered antenatal SCT screening.

Intervention

Practices were randomly allocated to offer pregnant women screening: i) in primary care at time of pregnancy confirmation, with parallel partner testing ( n = 191), ii) in primary care at time of pregnancy confirmation, with sequential partner testing ( n = 158), or iii) in secondary care by midwives, with sequential partner testing (standard care, n = 115).

Main outcome

Informed choice-a classification based on attitudes, knowledge and test uptake.

Results

91% of woman underwent screening. About a third (30.6%) made an informed choice to accept or decline screening: 34% in primary care parallel group; 23.4% in primary care sequential and 34.8% in secondary care sequential. Allowing for adjustments, rates of informed choice did not vary by intervention group: secondary care versus primary care with parallel partner testing OR 1.07 (95% CI 0.56 to 2.02); secondary care versus primary care with sequential partner testing OR 0.67 (95% CI 0.36 to 1.25). Uninformed choices were generally attributable to poor knowledge (65%).

Conclusion

Offering antenatal SCT screening in primary care did not reduce the likelihood that women made informed choices. Rates of informed choice were low and could be increased by improving knowledge.
Screening Outcomes in Women over Age 70 Who Self-refer in the Nhsbsp in England
Authors: Bennett R L , Moss S M
Published: August 2011

Setting

The NHS breast screening programme (NHSBSP) in England currently invites women aged 50-70 every three years. Whilst screening is acknowledged as efficacious for women aged 50-69, several countries routinely invite women up to the age of 74. The NHSBSP in England is beginning to invite women up to the age of 73. Although the incidence of breast cancer increases with age, the possible benefits of screening older women must be balanced against shorter life expectancies and possible overdiagnosis. In England women can self-refer after reaching the invitation upper age limit.

Objective

We examined the extent to which older women in England self-referred over a three-year period and studied the screening outcomes in these women.

Methods

Routinely collected data from screening units in England were used to calculate screening performance measures for women who self-referred between 1 April 2005 and 31 March 2008. The tumour characteristics of all screen-detected cancers were examined by previous screening history and age group (71-74 and ≥75 years).

Results

During the three-year period 139,910 women aged over 70 self-referred; equivalent to 4% of the female population aged over 70 having been screened. The majority of women who self-referred had been screened within the previous five years (76% of those aged 71-74 and 65% of those aged 75 or over). Approximately 4% of these women were recalled for assessment and cancer detection rates were similar in both age groups.

Conclusion

Only a small proportion of all women aged over 70 utilize the self-referral policy of the NHSBSP, and most such women are aged below 80.
Indirect Comparison of Two Quantitative Immunochemical Faecal Occult Blood Tests in a Population with Average Colorectal Cancer Risk
Authors: Guittet L , Bailly L , Bouvier V , Launoy G
Published: August 2011

Magstream and OC Sensor quantitative immunochemical faecal occult blood tests (IFOBT) have shown better performances than guaiac (G) tests in colorectal cancer screening, however Magstream and OC Sensor have never been compared. We hypothesized that similar performances could be observed with Magstream and OC Sensors, provided a similar cut-off (expressed in concentration of haemoglobin in the stools) is used. We performed a literature-based indirect comparison between these tests, taking into account the cut-off, the number of samples, and the way they were combined (I2+: at least one positive sample of 2; I2++: both positive samples; I1: only one sample). Six studies conducted in general average-risk populations were included in this review. For each [test]*[cut-off], positivity rate (PR) decreased and predictive positive value (PPV) increased from I2+ to I1 and I2++. For similar PR, PPV with OC Sensor was greater than with Magstream. This could be due to factors other than the test, because PPVs associated with GFOBT in studies evaluating OC Sensor were greater than PPVs associated with GFOBT in the study evaluating Magstream. Direct comparison between Magstream and OC Sensor is needed to confirm the suspected superiority of OC Sensor.
Extending the Age Range for Breast Screening in England: Pilot Study to Assess the Feasibility and Acceptability of Randomization
Authors: Moser Kath , Sellars Sarah , Wheaton Margot , Cooke Julie , Duncan Alison , Maxwell Anthony , Michell Michael , Wilson Mary , Beral Valerie , Peto Richard , Richards Mike , Patnick Julietta
Published: August 2011

Objective

To assess the feasibility and acceptability of randomizing the phased introduction of the extension of the invited age range in the National Health Service (NHS) Breast Screening Programme in England from 50-70 to 47-73 years.

Setting

Six volunteer breast screening units (BSUs) in England.

Methods

Cluster-randomized trial of invitation versus no invitation for breast screening. Study participants: women aged 47-49 and 71-73 years in screening batches randomized between 1 June 2009 and 31 May 2010. Outcomes: workload, screening uptake among women invited, self-referrals among women not invited, and screening outcomes among women invited.

Results

A total of 312 screening batches (clusters) were randomized including 60,708 women. Screening uptake was 63% in women aged 47-49 and 62% in women aged 71-73. Those who attended screening in the younger age group were more likely to be recalled for assessment than older attendees (7.5% vs. 3.0%) but less likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer (0.5% vs. 1.1%). Among women not invited, 0.2% of those aged 47-49 and 6.8% of those aged 71-73 self-referred for screening. Despite the extra workload BSUs largely coped although there was some slippage in round lengths and other targets.

Conclusion

No major problems of feasibility or acceptability of randomization were found. This pilot study has informed the randomized phasing-in of the age extension across the whole of England.
Risk Aversion, the Value of Information, and Traffic Equilibrium
Authors: de Palma André , Lindsey Robin , Picard Nathalie
Published: August 2011

Information about traffic conditions has traditionally been conveyed to drivers via radio, variable message signs, and, more recently, the Internet and advanced traveler information systems. This has spurred research on how travelers respond to information, how much they are willing to pay for it, and how much they are likely to benefit from it collectively. In this paper, we analyze the decisions of drivers on whether to acquire information and which routes to take on simple congested road networks. Drivers vary in their degrees of risk aversion with respect to travel time. Four information regimes are considered: no information, free information (publicly available at no cost), costly information (publicly available for a fee), and private information (available free to single individuals). Private information is shown to be individually more valuable than either free or costly information while the benefits from free and costly information cannot be ranked in general. Free or costly information can decrease the expected utility of drivers who are very risk averse; with sufficient risk aversion in the population, the aggregate compensating variation for information can be negative.
Resilience: An Indicator of Recovery Capability in Intermodal Freight Transport
Authors: Chen Lichun , Miller-Hooks Elise
Published: August 2011

In this paper, an indicator of network resilience is defined that quantifies the ability of an intermodal freight transport network to recover from disruptions due to natural or human-caused disaster. The indicator considers the network's inherent ability to cope with the negative consequences of disruptions as a result of its topological and operational attributes. Furthermore, the indicator explicitly accounts for the impact of potential recovery activities that might be taken in the immediate aftermath of the disruption to meet target operational service levels while adhering to a fixed budget. A stochastic mixed-integer program is proposed for quantifying network resilience and identifying an optimal postevent course of action (i.e., set of activities) to take. To solve this mathematical program, a technique that accounts for dependencies in random link attributes based on concepts of Benders decomposition, column generation, and Monte Carlo simulation is proposed. Experiments were conducted to illustrate the resilience concept and procedure for its measurement, and to assess the role of network topology in its magnitude.
Treating Hypertension in the Very Elderly
Authors: Charpentier Margaret M , Bundeff Andrew
Published: August 2011

Objective:

To review the evidence for strict blood pressure (BP) management in the very elderly, defined as patients aged 80 years and older.

Data Sources:

A literature search was performed using PubMed (1950 through November 2010) for the MeSH terms hypertension and elderly; subterms of identified MeSH terms (le. explosion) for the elderly were also searched. A broader search was conducted of PubMed articles published in the past 4 years. Searches were conducted for additional primary literature referenced in identified articles; an updated Cochrane Database review was also performed,

Study Selection And Data Extraction:

All identified studies that specifically included very elderly patients and BP were reviewed.

Data Synthesis:

The BP goal established in the Seventh Report of the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC 7) is less than 140/90 mm Hg, regardless of age, unless a compelling indication exists. Although evidence suggests that lowering BP will lower the risk of stroke, lower BP in the very elderly may result in higher mortality. Many physicians are reluctant to treat BP in accordance with the JNC 7 goal in very elderly patients for a variety of reasons, including concerns about fall risk, lack of benefit in mortality reduction, and concerns about drug interactions and adverse effects. Results from a randomized controlled trial and meta-analysis have demonstrated reductions in stroke, heart failure, and cardiovascular events in the very elderly. The American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association recently published guidelines for elderly patients that suggest treating the very elderly carefully and with different BP goals than previously recommended.

Conclusions:

Optimal management of hypertension in the very elderly remains a concern. Few studies have evaluated hypertension in this population, and studies that included patients over 80 enrolled too few to draw conclusions. Although the HYVET (Hypertension in the Very Elderly Trial) study did have adequate power to evaluate the very elderly, because this study was stopped early because of significant findings in mortality, unanswered questions remain regarding optimal BP targets.