Metodološka pitanja popisne etnostatistike u svetlu savremenih imigracionih trendova u Srbiji
Authors:   Department of Demography, Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade., Knežević Aleksandar 
Published: July 2023

The results of previous demographic research according to the ethnic characteristics of the population clearly point to the need for caution when using data from official ethnostatistics. Censuses and vital statistics form a quantitative basis for calculating ethno-demographic indicators whose interpretations can directly affect the creation of public policies aimed at the legal, political, economic and general social position, not only of members of minority ethnic groups, but also of the entire population. Although census ethnostatistics has been suspended in a large number of developed countries, there is a noticeable increase in interest in quantitative research on popu¬lation demographic characteristics relating to ethnicity. On the other hand, in countries that already have developed census ethnostatistics, there is reasonable doubt about the quality of the data, which leads to a review of the census methodology, starting with definitions and statistical categorisations, and ending with the methods of data collection and publication. So far, the results of population surveys according to ethnic characteristics provide enough space for various interpretations of the data because censuses often represent much more than a statistical record of social reality. This is especially noticeable in statistical categorisations based on ethnic characteristics, assigning censuses a significant role in constructing this reality that additionally reinforces the existing population divides. The collection of statistical data on the ethnic characteristics of the population of Serbia has a long tradition, primarily due to the historically inherited heterogeneous ethnic structure. In censuses during the first half of the 19th century, data on ethnic characteristics were collected only spo¬radically, but after Serbia had gained independence in 1878, ethnostatistics became one of the most important factors in political and overall social activity. Although a direct question about national (then ethnic) affiliation first appeared in the 1866 census, the opinion quickly prevailed that it was strongly influenced by the subjective understanding of ethnic identity, which was often equated with citizenship at that time. That is why language was given priority over ethno-national affiliation because, in addition to being of key importance for the creation of ethno-cultural and national identity, it also proved to be a statistically more objective indicator. From then until today, the ethnic structure of Serbia has changed significantly, but the motives for data collection have remained the same because the ethnostatistical census methodology at that time (as well as today) was based primarily on primor¬dial understandings of ethnicity. According to the current census methodology, it is possible to collect data on three ethno-cultural characteristics of the population: national affiliation (in the ethnic sense), mother tongue and religion. The obtained data can be considered a simple quantification of the subjective declaration of the population according to the ethno-identity concept. The citizenship characteristic in the Serbian census has the status of a legal rather than an ethnic category. The official ethnosta¬tistical nomenclatures used in the 2011 census included 45 modalities of nationality, regionally determined, as well as the group category “other nationalities”; and 36 modalities of the mother tongue, with the group category “other languages”. On the other hand, early statistical documentation points to the conclusion that, in Serbia, there was also an interest in data on the presence of foreigners who, like ethnic minorities, were viewed through the prism of “others”. During the 19th century, censuses periodically contained the question of “subservience”, which can be considered a forerunner of the modern interpretation of citizenship. During the Yu¬goslav phase of census statistics, the record of foreigners was an integral part of all eight censuses, and has remained so in all Serbian censuses from 2002 until today. According to the current census methodology, the Republic of Serbia intends to record permanently settled foreigners, foreigners granted temporary residence, asylum seekers and migrants without established status. The main aim of this research is to clarify the relationship between recording foreigners in Serbia and methodological solutions for collecting data on the ethnic characteristics of the population. Although the official ethnostatistical methodology in Serbia focuses primarily on obtaining data on “ethnic nationality”, the statistical nomenclature by nationality also includes mo¬dalities such as Belgians, French, Danes, Swedes, Italians, Swiss, Finns, Norwegians, and Chinese, whose national identification is mainly determined by the criterion of citizenship rather than ethnic identity. This means that the same group contains data on ethnicity based on two different theoretical understandings of ethnic identity. The statistical classification of the population by nationality gradually expanded after the Second World War. Since the 1981 census, there have been national modalities whose ethnicity is difficult to determine using the methodology applied, which casts doubt on the quality of the data and further complicates their usability. Obtained by the method of crossing data on citizenship, nationality and language affiliation, among other things, the research results show that a certain number of foreigners exercised the right not to declare their nationality. Therefore, the group of undeclared, undecided and unknown includes a relatively large number of citizens of Austria, China, Denmark, Switzerland, France and Great Britain. In these countries, data on ethnicity are not collected at all or are collected according to different definitions of nationality. Following immigration trends in the last inter-census period, it is realistic to expect that the next census will face a problem of ethnic identification of foreign citizens, especially immigrants from countries where ethnicity is understood differently. The presented research results show that the existing ethnostatistical census methodology hampers demographic research of foreigners in Serbia, but also reopens the dilemma of re-examining the quality and use of official ethnostatistical data, especially in the domain of public policies.