bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Unusual heavy rare earth elements enrichment and mineralization age in the Jialu deposit from the Qinling Orogen, central China
Authors: Li Fengchun , Zeng Qingdong , Fan Hongrui , Yang Kuifeng
Published: March 2024

Carbonatite has enormous potential for rare earth element resources, typically enriched in light rare earth elements, and has attracted increasing attention from geologists and economists. However, there are a small number of documented instances of carbonatite-related heavy rare earth elements enrichment. The Jialu carbonatites in the Qinling orogenic belt (central China) are characterized by the enrichment of heavy rare earth elements compared with typical global carbonatites. The carbonatites are dominantly comprised of calcite, quartz, sulfate, K-feldspar, minor sulfides, and rare earth minerals such as monazite, bastnäsite, parisite, and xenotime, with two mineralization stages including the early quartz-K-feldspar-calcite stage (Stage I) and the late sulfide-rare earth mineral-calcite stage (Stage II). The rare earth element contents of Stage I calcite are higher than those of the Stage II, especially heavy rare earth elements. Calcite from the different mineralization stages exhibits variable chondrite-normalized REE patterns, with the heavy rare earth elements and rare earth element abundances (134–1023 ppm) decreasing from the early to the late stage owing to the crystallization of xenotime. The δ13C (−5.39‰ to −6.68‰) and slightly higher δ18O (10.77‰ to 12.60‰) values for calcite from the Jialu carbonatites generally deviate from the values observed in the primary carbonatite field, which may be a result of Rayleigh-type fractionation. LA–ICP–MS U–Pb dating shows the lower-intercept ages of 243.8 ± 5 and 237.6 ± 1.3 Ma for the monazite and xenotime, respectively, with the weighted average 206Pb/238U ages of 240.9 ± 6 and 239.2 ± 1.3 Ma. These results indicate that the Jialu deposit was concurrent with Triassic carbonatite magmatism and rare earth element mineralization observed on the southern margin of the North China Craton. This implies that this region may have great rare earth element mineralization potential.
Unraveling the Complex Causal Relationship between Soil Moisture and Air Temperature Anomalies: A Comparative Analysis of Linear and Nonlinear Granger Causality
Authors: Bhatti Asher Samuel , Hagan Daniel Fiifi Tawia , Wang Guojie , Ullah Waheed , Ullah Safi , Nooni Isaac K. , Amankwah Solomon O. Y. , Zhou Feihong
Published: March 2024

Unveiling the complexities of Earth's climate system demands a profound understanding of the intricate interplay between soil moisture (SM) and 2m air temperature anomalies (T). This study employs cutting-edge methodologies, such as nonlinear Random Forest Granger Causality (nRFGC), Copula nonlinear Granger Causality (CnGC), nonlinear Kernel Granger Causality (nKGC), and the traditional linear Granger Causality (GC), to unravel the complex causal relationship between SM and T. Through extensive experimentation on both hypothetical and real-world datasets from diverse sources, the research underscores the superior efficacy of nonlinear methodologies—especially nonlinear KGC—in identifying elevated Granger causal signals across spatial and temporal dimensions. Notably, these findings align consistently with both hypothetical and traditional hydrological models, underscoring the limitations of linear methodologies when grappling with nonlinear causation. The study provides clarity on discerning the nonlinear causal link between SM and T, emphasizing the imperative to transcend conventional linear methods when unraveling the intricate causal complexities within Earth's climate system. Significantly, Nonlinear Granger Causality (nGC) emerges as a potent tool capable of unveiling causal structures without succumbing to overfitting issues. Consequently, this research imparts insightful revelations about the non-linear dynamics inherent in SM-T interactions across different seasonal levels. Our study clarifies and makes it clearer to identify the nonlinear causal relationship between SM and T, emphasizing the need to go beyond conventional methodologies, asserting that these methodologies fall short in comprehending the nuanced causal interactions between land and atmosphere. By urging a shift, the study contends that embracing non-linear methodologies is essential not only for enhancing predictions but also for gaining a more profound understanding of Earth's climate system.
The impact of storm event likelihood on the forecast uncertainty over Europe at S2S time scales
Authors: Rupp Philip , Afargan-Gerstman Hilla , Spaeth Jonas , Birner Thomas
Published: March 2024

Weather forecasts at subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales have little or no deterministic forecast skill in the troposphere. Individual ensemble members are uncorrelated and span a range of scenarios that are possible for the given set of boundary conditions. The uncertainty of such probabilistic forecasts is then determined by this range of scenarios – often quantified in terms of ensemble spread. For certain boundary conditions, the ensemble spread can be highly anomalous, with conditions associated with reduced spread sometimes referred to as „windows of opportunity“. Various dynamical processes can affect the ensemble spread within a given region, including extreme weather events present in individual members. For geopotential height forecasts over Europe, such extremes are mainly comprised of synoptic storms travelling on the North Atlantic storm track.We use ECMWF re-forecasts from the S2S database to investigate the connection between storm characteristics and increases in ensemble spread in more detail. We find that the presence of storms in individual ensemble members at s2s time scales forms a major contribution to the geopotential height forecast uncertainty over Europe. In our study, we quantify the magnitude of this contribution and analyse the underlying dynamics, using both Eulerian and Lagrangian frameworks. We further show that certain atmospheric conditions, like various blocked weather regimes, are associated with reduced geopotential height ensemble spread over Europe due to changes in the North Atlantic storm track and associated anomalies in storm density. This connection sheds light on the occurrence of some “windows of opportunity” in the troposphere on S2S time scales.
Late Cenozoic deformation and glacial imprint on the Terskey Range, Kyrgyzstan
Authors: Gong Lingxiao , van der Beek Peter , Sobel Edward , Schildgen Taylor , Mariotti Apolline , Bernard Maxime , Glodny Johannes
Published: March 2024

It is widely recognized that the topography of the Earth's surface records coupling between tectonics, climate and surface processes. However, the relative contributions of tectonic and climatic drivers to the observed topography, rates and patterns of erosion remain poorly constrained in many mountain regions. The Terskey Range, located in the Kyrgyz Tian Shan, is an ideal natural laboratory to investigate this question because of its well-documented structure, kinematics and denudation history. Cenozoic deformation of the Terskey Range is mainly characterised by southward tilting associated with thrusting along the Main Terskey Fault; this fault delimits the mountain range to the north. Tilting can be reconstructed using relict low-relief surfaces that have undergone minimal Cenozoic erosion. Slip along the Main Terskey Fault initiated in the early Miocene and accelerated at around 10 Ma. A comparison between short- and long-term denudation rates suggests a significant increase during the Quaternary, which has been linked to glaciation of the range. The geomorphology of the range, with deeply incised, highly concave main valleys contrasting to less incised and concave minor valleys, suggests significant but variable ice dynamics.We focus here on the reanalysis of published low-temperature thermochronology data (apatite fission-track, apatite and zircon (U-Th-Sm)/He) of two elevation transects from the glacially affected Barskoon Valley, one of the main valleys draining the Terskey Range to the north. We collected three new valley-bottom samples from the Barskoon Valley to better constrain differential erosion along the valley, with the aim to discriminate between tectonic, fluvial and glacial drivers of valley incision. Inverse thermal-history modelling of the elevation profiles, combining new and existing data, indicates a significant increase in exhumation rate since around 3 Ma in the northern transect. We suggest that this signal records the initiation of efficient glacial erosion in Terskey Range. Future studies will include higher resolution 4He/3He thermochronology of the valley-bottom samples and inversion of the preglacial topographic relief using thermal-kinematic Pecube.
Uncovering the tectonic secrets of the Atlantic with broadband ocean-bottom seismology
Authors: Hicks Stephen P.
Published: March 2024

80% of earthquakes occur underwater, so ocean-bottom seismometers (OBS) are crucial for improving our understanding of earthquake source mechanics along unexplored offshore faults, and fillling key gaps in our images of the deeper solid Earth. Even for ocean islands and island arcs, land stations alone struggle to image underlying structures. Broadband OBSs have been through many design iterations, but many OBS deployments now yield high data recovery rates (>90%). Even though my first OBS deployment experience left me feeling seasick, I have since continued to seismically explore the oceans, taking part in several OBS projects. In this talk, I will focus on my recent results from experiments across the Atlantic Ocean. Compared to the faster-spreading and subducting Pacific lithosphere, the less well-studied Atlantic offers a key endmember for refining our knowledge of global tectonics and associated hazards.In the Lesser Antilles subduction zone, subducting Atlantic lithosphere is heterogeneously hydrated. Local earthquakes recorded by OBSs (VoiLA experiment), allowed me to image seismic attenuation to map fluid and melt pathways through the slab and mantle wedge, showing how slab fluids precondition melt generation and volcanism in arc settings. In the mid-Atlantic, long transform faults can host large M~7 earthquakes in ultra-wide (20-30 km thick) fault zones, allowing a uniquely macro-scale view of how damage zones control seismogenesis. In 2017, OBSs (PI-LAB experiment) recorded a nearby Mw 7.1 earthquake on the Romanche transform fault, triggering detailed teleseismic analysis that show back-propagating rupture fronts, which have since been seen during the 2023 M7.8 Türkiye earthquake. More recently, I analysed a seismic swarm and dyke intrusion in the Azores, which lies on a diffuse transtensional plate boundary. Here, a temporary OBS network (UPFLOW project) installed around the uniquely narrow island of São Jorge yields high-resolution seismicity locations that shed light on magma inflow and drainage along pre-existing faults.Overall, OBS experiments yield fascinating results, but these results come from vast team efforts, particularly from ship crews and OBS technicians, that often go uncredited. We need to work harder to ensure the long-term sustainability of data from these expensive, often publicly-funded projects, with OBS-specific data preprocessing complications a partial barrier to this.
A systems approach for holistic resilience building
Authors: Sneddon Alison
Published: March 2024

Resilience for Social Systems (R4S) is an approach to analyse the resilience of socioeconomic systems. Societies are made up of socio-economic systems which service the needs of their populations, and addressing recurrent crises and effectively building resilience requires an integrated systems approach. Where these systems are fragile and large portions of the population are socially or economically marginalized, communities are highly susceptible to external shocks and stresses; coordination among stakeholders to strengthen these systems will ultimately improve resilience and lead to resilient and inclusive development.The R4S approach to resilience helps to understand how various system components (stakeholders, resources, regulations) interact and interconnect, as well as assessing the potential impacts from risk scenarios. In other words, when applying the R4S Approach to build resilience, the user can anticipate better how natural hazards can trigger economic shocks, how conflicts can leave people more exposed to additional shocks or stresses (e.g., an outbreak of cholera can be triggered when water, sanitation and hygiene systems are destroyed or become inaccessible), and how long-term stresses such as environmental degradation can lower agricultural productivity, weakening food security and income levels, and impacting a household’s ability to pay for health care or education.Understanding these dynamics is critical to deliver better programming that addresses root causes of constraints rather than symptoms alone. The R4S Approach is based on best practice in Systems Thinking, Network Theory, Scenario Thinking, Social and Behaviour Change, Inclusion and Resilience approaches and provides a logical step by step process for assessing resilience of socio-economic systems.This presentation will provide an overview of the R4S, the innovations in the assessment of complex and interlinked vulnerabilities it provides, and practical examples drawn from GOAL’s experience of conducting the assessment and implementing resilience-building strategies based on the needs and opportunities identified.
Rethinking the connection between aerosols, meteorology, and snowmelt patterns in High Mountain Asia: Using a novel regional reanalysis
Authors: Roychoudhury Chayan , Cheng William , He Cenlin , Kumar Rajesh , McKinnon John , Arellano Jr. Avelino
Published: March 2024

Snowmelt in Third Pole regions like High Mountain Asia (HMA) results from meteorological forcing and their complex interactions with light-absorbing particles (LAPs) originating from remote and nearby pollution sources. However, the impact of these aerosol-meteorology interactions (AMI) on snow remains ambiguous in the context of a changing climate and Earth System Models (ESMs). In this study, we substantiate the importance of AMI in driving snow cover fraction (SCF) variations in low snow-covered glacial regions during the late snowmelt season (May-July). We put forward a combination of statistical multi-linear regression and explainable machine learning approaches on three major reanalyses and satellite observations. In addition to the reanalyses from ECMWF (ERA-5/CAMS) and NASA GMAO (MERRA-2), we utilize a regional chemical reanalysis MATCHA (Model for Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry in Asia) developed by NCAR to analyze these interactions. Our findings reveal that AMI accounts for approximately 20% of SCF variability, with atmospheric carbonaceous aerosols and synoptic circulation being key contributors. We highlight the differences in the representation of AMI across the three reanalyses, with promising results from MATCHA, a more refined and fully coupled reanalysis that captures observable AMI. The MATCHA reanalysis presents a viable alternative for studying the HMA cryosphere because it incorporates the coupling between aerosols, snow, and radiation, as well as daily assimilation of satellite AOD and total column CO. Insights from this study underscore the need to 1) advance functional representations of AMI through improved coupling parameterizations in current climate models and 2) incorporate the afore-mentioned geophysical quantities in the design and development of observing systems and ESMs. Accounting for interactions like AMI in ESMs can improve medium-range forecasts of high-impact weather, particularly hydrological extremes in freshwater-vulnerable regions like HMA. 
The Big Soak:  Change in Water in 2023 in North America's Pacific Mountain System 
Authors: Argus Donald , Martens Hilary , David Wiese , Matthew Swarr , Adrian Borsa , Athina Peidou , Lau Nicholas , Kim Dain , Gaastra Kevin , Ellmer Matthias , Young Zachary , Knappe Ellen , Molotch Noah , Alam Sarfaraz , Landerer Felix , Gardner Payton , John Reager
Published: March 2024

We are strengthening the application of GPS's capability to estimate change in total water using measurements of elastic displacements of Earth's surface; breaking down total water into its components such as snow, soil moisture, and groundwater; and integrating GRACE gravity data to infer change in total water in groundwater basins.In California's Sierra Nevada, GPS each day tracks the dumping and dissipation of storm water.  In Water Year 2023, total water increased abruptly during each of two sequences of snow-dominated atmospheric rivers.  Subsurface water, which we take to be total water inferred from GPS minus snow water equivalent, to rise in early January at the time of the first AR sequence, remain constant from late Jan through March (with no increase during the second AR sequence), and rise from April to June as the snowpack melts.  Subsurface water increases in the Sierra Nevada by 0.6 m from Oct 2022 to Jun 2023, 45 per cent of cumulative precipitation of 1.4 m.  Such a big rise in subsurface water begins to rejuvenate the Sierra Nevada critical zone (Earth's living outer layer between the top of the trees and the bottom of groundwater) and to replenish subsurface water lost during the prior 3 years of drought from 2020 to 2022.Change in total water in California's Central Valley can be determined neither by GRACE alone nor GPS alone.  There GPS records primarily Earth's poroelastic response, from which water change is difficult to infer.  GRACE cannot distinguish water change in Central Valley from water change in the Sierra Nevada without assuming a hydrology model.  We integrate GPS elastic displacements and GRACE gravity to estimate water change in the Central Valley.  In the rigorous inversion, GPS determines water change in the Sierra Nevada and Coast Ranges and the remaining water change from GRACE is placed in the Central Valley.  We find Central Valley groundwater increased by 0.75 m in the first nine months of Water Year 2023 (the biggest gain ever recorded), replenishing more groundwater than lost during the prior 3 years of drought.
Exchanging knowledge in community online seminars: lessons learned from the Rifts and Rifted Margins Seminar series
Authors: Brune Sascha , Welford J. Kim , Kolawole Folarin , Keir Derek , Péron-Pinvidic Gwenn
Published: March 2024

The Rifts and Rifted Margins Seminar is a community-based, international online seminar series. It unites multi-disciplinary expertise in the fields of geology, geophysics, and geochemistry, and aims at covering both fundamental and applied research aspects. The series caters primarily to the community working on active rifts and the one that focusses on rifted margins. We aim to bridge these communities while further, building links to neighboring disciplines.The seminar series started in June 2020 and has hosted about 70 seminars with roughly 200 individual talks1. Each seminar session is structured as a one-hour Zoom meeting held on Monday afternoon European time. Originally a bi-weekly meeting, the seminar has switched to a monthly rhythm since summer 2022. If speakers agree, their presentations are recorded and shared on the seminar’s YouTube channel2.We have encountered several challenges since the inception of this project – from technical hurdles to defining the scientific scope of the seminars. We have adopted a technical setup that utilises Zoom for video conferencing, accommodating over 100 attendees at times, DFN3 for broadcasting invitations to a mailing list of more than 700 subscribers, and YouTube for hosting seminar recordings that have gained approximately 40,000 views2. In contrast to the majority of other online seminars, we host three speakers per session, each at different career levels (senior, mid-level, and early career/student) and where possible, from different gender/ethnic groups, delivering a talk of 13-15 minutes length. These presentations concentrate on a single scientific subject, albeit from varied viewpoints. We believe that this setup ensures a more diverse perspective and enhances the discourse. On the downside, it complicates the scheduling of sessions.In total, 10 researchers have contributed to organizing this seminar series since 2020. To meet individual time commitments and to ensure influx of new ideas, the initial team of organizers has been steadily replaced. The pandemic has seen the emergence of many online seminars which have played a key role in maintaining community connections during that time. The principal advantage of online seminars however endures beyond the pandemic: they enable the exchange of knowledge without the need for travel and with a minimal carbon footprint, accessible to anybody with an internet connection, and at no cost. [1] https://www.gfz-potsdam.de/sektion/geodynamische-modellierung/projekte/rift-and-rifted-margins-online-seminar[2] https://www.youtube.com/@riftandriftedmarginsonline1714/playlists[3] https://www.dfn.de/
Multiple approaches for quantifying fuels, combustion dynamics, and regional fire emissions in the Amazon and Cerrado
Authors: Forkel Matthias , Wessollek Christine , Andela Niels , de Laat Jos , Huijnen Vincent , Kinalczyk Daniel , Marrs Christopher , van Wees Dave , Bastos Ana , Ciais Philippe , Fawcett Dominic , Kaiser Johannes W. , Kutchartt Erico , Klauberg Carine , Leite Rodrigo Vieira , Li Wei , Silva Carlos , Sitch Stephen , Goncalves De Souza Jefferson , Plummer Stephen
Published: March 2024

Fires in the Amazon are of great concern because they threaten the integrity of the tropical forest biome, the carbon cycle, and air quality. Fire emissions depend on the burning behaviour of vegetation biomass, woody debris, and litter. However, the effects of fuels on the combustion process and on the composition of fire emissions are simplified in current fire emission inventories and models. Several new fire emission approaches have recently been developed to better quantify fire emissions by either making use the improved spatial resolution of modern satellite observations or by developing new modelling approaches. Here we compare several current and novel approaches to quantify fuel consumption and fire emissions for the Amazon and Cerrado for the fire season in 2020. The approaches include the widely used GFAS, a top-down approach based on Sentinel-5p observations (KNMI.S5p), a bottom-up approach based on active fire observations from VIIRS (GFA.S4F), two bottom-up approaches based on MODIS burned area data (500-m version of GFED, REFIT.AC), a data-model fusion approach with dynamic emission factors that integrates several Earth observation products (TUD.S4F), and three dynamic global vegetation models in diagnostic mode with prescribed burned area. The different approaches to estimate fire emission show that forest and deforestation fires dominate the regional total fire emissions. However, large differences exist in the very high emissions of individual fires that mainly contribute to the regional total fire emissions. We found a higher agreement in estimated CO and NOx emissions between approaches for savannah fires (normalised RMSE < 20%) than for forest and deforestation fires (nRMSE 30%). We estimate that only 10% of all fire events contribute between 85% and 97% of the regional total fire emissions. By using the TUD.S4F data-model fusion approach with dynamic emission factors, we show that most fire CO emissions originate from the burning of woody debris, which burns with low combustion efficiency and hence has higher emission factors for CO. Comparisons with regional field-based investigations show, however, large differences in estimates of surface fuel loads and fuel consumption. Our results demonstrate the advantage of exploring several complementary fire emission approaches to better understand the underlying processes and to account for regional to global fire emissions and their uncertainties.
Tsunami Digital Twin – Concept, Progress, and Application to the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake Tsunami Disaster, Japan
Authors: Koshimura Shunichi , Adriano Bruno , Mas Erick , Nagata Shohei , Takeda Yuriko
Published: March 2024

The digital twin is recognized as digital copies of the physical world's objects stored in digital(cyber) space and utilized to simulate the sequences and consequences of target phenomena. Users can fully view the target through real-time feedback by incorporating the physical world's data into the digital twin. Given the importance of the digital twin, the authors propose "Tsunami Digital Twin (TDT)" as a new paradigm in tsunami science and engineering to enhance tsunami disaster resilience.The components of TDT are the transformation from "Data" to "Information" by integrating sensing, monitoring, and simulation; "Interpretation" of data and information; and "Inference" by using available data and information to draw conclusions and consequences and decide policies and responses for social resilience. Fusing these components is the key to gaining knowledge and insight for optimal solutions in the physical world.In the session, the authors focus on two functionalities of TDT: Real-time tsunami modeling and forecast capability and Dynamic exposure estimation to verify through the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake Tsunami Disaster.The rapid tsunami hazard assessment by real-time tsunami modeling implied that severe impacts were expected around Noto Peninsula (Shika to Nanao), and the directivity of tsunami energy was also toward the Japan sea coasts, especially Joetsu city, Niigata Prefecture. We also found that the specific bathymetric features (continental shelf of Noto Peninsula) are responsible for high tsunamis in Suzu city.The exposure analysis was performed using Mobile Spatial Statistics (the population estimates using mobile phone data) to elucidate population change after the earthquake by elevation (tsunami affected or not).
Site-specific Seismic Hazard Assessment of Uttarakhand, India with special emphasis on Liquefaction Potential  modelling of the terrain and Seismic Hazard Microzonation of Dehradun City
Authors: Bind Amrendra Pratap , Nath Sankar Kumar
Published: March 2024

Abstract: The incidences of earthquakes in the north Indian state of Uttarkhand are broadly associated with the presence of active fault viz. Main Central Thrust and Alaknanda Fault in the north, Moradabad Fault and Himalayan Frontal Thrust in the southern margin, Martoli Thrust and Indus Suture in the eastern, Mahendragarh Dehrdun Fault in the west. Uttarakhand falls under Seismic Zone IV and V and has been struck by several devastating earthquakes viz. 1905 Kangra earthquake of MW 7.8, 1991 Uttarkashi earthquake of MW 6.8 and 1999 Chamoli earthquake of MW 6.5 with maximum MM Intensity of IX observed in near-source region causing widespread damage and destruction in the study region. Uttarakhand region has undergone unprecedented development and population growth, emphasizing the importance of analysis of Seismic Hazard to ensure safe and secure progress in this seismically vulnerable region. Consideration of seismicity patterns, fault networks and similarity in the style of focal mechanisms yielded 10 areal seismogenic sources with additional active tectonic features in 0-25km, 25-70km, and 70-180km hypocentral depth ranges, along with 15 Ground Motion Prediction Equations for the tectonic provinces of Uttarakhand region yielding Probabilistic Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at engineering bedrock  seen to vary from 0.36g to 0.63g for 475years of return period which places the region in the moderate to high hazard zone necessitating a case study for site-specific seismic characterization of the region. Seismic site classification has been done based on an enriched geophysical, in-situ downhole, geotechnical database and surface geoscience attributes comprising of Geology, Geomorphology, Landform and Topographic Gradient derived shear wave velocity categorizes the region into Site Classes E, D4, D3, D2, D1, C4, C3, C2, C1, B and A. Using the input ground motion at bedrock level obtained from stochastic simulation for the near-source earthquakes, nonlinear site response analyses have been performed using PLAXIS-2D software package wherein site amplification has been mapped which is seen to vary in the range of 1.02 to 2.86. Surface-consistent probabilistic seismic hazard in terms of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) for a return period of 475 years has been assessed for the study region by convolving site amplification with bedrock hazard thus predicting a variation of PGA in the range of 0.51-1.61g. Additionally, assessment of liquefaction potential of the terrain and seismic hazard microzonation have been done for Dehradun city to identify areas with varying level of ground shaking and its associated liquefaction phenomenon during earthquakes, enabling the development of site-specific building codes and land-use regulations. The results of this investigation are expected to play vital roles in the earthquake–related disaster mitigation and management of the region.
How will bedload transport respond to climate change in Alpine regions? The "ALTROCLIMA" project
Authors: Pitscheider Felix , Argentin Anne-Laure , Gianini Mattia , Repnik Leona , Bizzi Simone , Lane Stuart , Comiti Francesco
Published: March 2024

Alpine regions are among the areas that are the most intensely impacted by climate change. Predictions of how such changes affect meteorological conditions, as well as snow and ice cover and water discharge in mountain regions, are well established. However, how climate change has affected and will affect sediment transport in general and bedload transport in particular in such environments has yet to be studied.Bedload transport within Alpine rivers is of ecological importance for river systems, impacts the economic efficiency of hydropower and is a critical parameter in assessing hydrogeological risks. This transport is determined by the sediment supplied to the river and the river's capacity to transport these sediments. These complex processes are closely intertwined with climatological conditions within a catchment, particularly in catchments with substantial glacial coverage. However, predicting how bedload transport behaves due to a changing climate is challenging.This project fills this knowledge gap and investigates the link between bedload transport and rapid climate change in Alpine environments and aims to predict future trends for the current century. To reach this goal, a wide range of objectives has been set. We work towards providing the first reliable, multi-site quantification of past bedload transport changes under warming conditions, as well as to determine the role of geomorphic processes on bedload export in the analysed river networks. Furthermore, we are working on establishing modelling frameworks to predict subglacial and hillslope sediment supply as well as hydrological discharge to create a bedload transport modelling chain. The modelling chain is based upon the D-CASCADE model, which allows quantifying the spatio-temporal bedload (dis)-connectivity in river networks. Supplying the model with climatological and hydrological predictions enables the estimation of future bedload flux and erosion/deposition patterns under different scenarios. The approach for estimating the evolution of bedload transport will be developed and tested in the Solda (Italy) and Navisence (Switzerland) catchments, due to the data availability of the recent bedload transport history. Once validated and calibrated, the approach will be applied to further selected catchments.In summary, the project aims to provide a decadal-scale quantification of changes in Alpine bedload transport due to climate warming and predict its evolution in the 21st century. We anticipate an initial increase in sediment transport with increasing glacial melt, driven by climate warming. However, this surge may be temporary as diminishing glaciers reduce their contribution to river discharge after a phase of maximum discharge rates. Beyond the academic value of this research, it will offer critical insights for water resource managers in Alpine regions.
Drought influences on hydrological regimes
Authors: Matano Alessia , Barendrecht Marlies , Brunner Manuela , Hamed Raed , Van Loon Anne F.
Published: March 2024

Persistent drought conditions may alter catchment response to precipitation, both during and after the drought period. Drought impacts on vegetation and hydrological dynamics may persist beyond the drought event, challenging accurate streamflow forecasting especially under flooding conditions. Yet, the influence of drought characteristics on the catchment response to precipitation remains unclear. In this study, we use a comprehensive dataset consisting of observations and remote sensing data of streamflow, precipitation, soil moisture, and total water storage for 3957 catchments worldwide. By employing multivariate statistical analysis, we identify significant abrupt shifts in the precipitation-streamflow relationship and examine the role of drought in driving these shifts. Our analysis shows that drought events may generally lead to significantly lower streamflow than expected from the historical norm during and after drought conditions. While warm-temperate and equatorial regions generally experience a slight decrease in streamflow during drought compared to expected values, arid regions predominantly exhibit an unexpected increase during soil moisture drought. In snow-influenced regions both increases and decreases of streamflow compared to expected were found. Notably, soil moisture drought events emerge as main drivers of hydrological regime shifts, particularly in snow-influenced and arid regions.  This study sheds light on the importance of considering regional characteristics in predicting dynamic catchment response to precipitation under and after persistent drought conditions.
Multi-sensor approach of monitoring ice-ocean interaction at high resolution at a major ocean-terminating glacier in South Greenland
Authors: Vieli Andreas , Dachauer Armin , Gräff Dominik , Walter Andrea , Lipovsky Brad , Walter Fabian , Welty Ethan
Published: March 2024

About half of the current rapid mass loss of the Greenland ice sheet (GIS) is through dynamic processes driven by calving and frontal ablation. However, related insitu observations in such dynamic environments are challenging and our process understanding is therefore still limited. Within the wider context of the GreenFjord-project on Greenland Fjord ecosystem we introduce here a multi-sensor approach for observing process interactions at high spatial and temporal resolution at the ice-ocean boundary of the major ocean-terminating outlet glacier Eqalorutsit Kangillit Sermiat (EKaS) in South Greenland.Besides multiple all year-round time lapse cameras, broadband seismometers and tidegauges distributed around the glacier terminus and running since summer 2022, we deployed for the first time in summer 2023 a fibre optic cable at the fjord-bed along the calving front and performed continuous distributed acoustic and temperature sensing measurements (DAS and DTS) during more than two weeks. In parallel, we run a terrestrial radar interferometer (TRI) at 1min repeat intervals that recorded high resolution flow-fields as well as calving events (time, size and location). Our comprehensive observational approach is further complemented by local meteo-station data and more than 20 CTD profiles in the fjord near the calving front. In addition, two ocean bottom seismometers together with a simple CTD mooring have been deployed in summer 2023 and are planned to be recovered in the coming summer.Besides our observational approach, we present here a broad overview and preliminary analysis of this unique observational dataset. We are not only able to record and cross-validate the same processes or events (e. g. calving and ice flow) from multiple sensors, but also clearly extend our observational ability (e. g. detection sensitivity, calving type and size, fjord circulation, spatial and temporal resolution).  We further get more insights into related subglacial and submarine processes such as fjord temperature variations, plume discharge and internal waves in the fjord. Our results thereby contribute to improve our understanding of ice-ocean interaction at a calving front and helps to develop sustainable observational systems of related processes.
Examining the application of CMIP6 General Circulation Models in regional flood projections for the Mekong River Delta, Viet Nam
Authors: Ton Binh Minh , Chiang Shou-Hao
Published: March 2024

In the 21st century, the Mekong River Delta (MRD), in Viet Nam, is projected to experience intensified extreme precipitation events due to global warming. General Circulation Models (GCMs) offer possible future climate estimations globally that adeptly capture large-scale features of precipitation extremes under different scenario settings. However, challenges persist in replicating detailed regional flood patterns within the MRD. This study focuses on the application of CMIP6 models, including European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5—ERA5, Situ-Based Data Set of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes—HadEX3, and Rainfall Estimates on a Gridded Network—REGEN. Before it can be applied for the future flood assessment for the study area, this study compared annual maximum daily precipitation, derived from CMIP6, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data (CHIRPS), and ground-based precipitation records, from 1978 to 2012, and identified the relationships between annual maximum daily precipitation and flooded area. Accordingly, this study projects precipitation and flooded areas for the near future (2026–2050), mid-future (2050–2075), and far future (2075-2100). The preliminary results will be presented in this meeting. In light of the persistent global warming trend, the expected rise in flooding within the MRD and variations in heavy precipitation patterns emphasize the importance of the findings in this study. These results play a crucial role in mitigating adverse effects and fortifying resilience to global warming and climate change in the MRD.KEY WORDS: CMIP6, CHIRPS, flood, extreme precipitation, global warming.
Resolving uncertainty in the response of Australia's terrestrial carbon cycle to projected climate change
Authors: Teckentrup Lina , De Kauwe Martin , Pitman Andy , Ukkola Anna , Wårlind David , Smith Benjamin
Published: March 2024

Semi-arid ecosystems, common across the Australian continent, strongly influence the inter-annual variability and trend in the global terrestrial net carbon sink. Here we explore the future Australian terrestrial carbon cycle using the CMIP6 ensemble, and the dynamic global vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. Uncertainty in Australia’s carbon storage in vegetation ranged between 6 and 49 PgC at the end of the century and was strongly linked to biases in the meteorological forcing. Using LPJ-GUESS with bias-corrected meteorological forcing reduced uncertainty in the vegetation carbon storage to between 14 and 20 PgC, with the remaining range linked to model sensitivities to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and precipitation variability. Reducing this uncertainty will require improved terrestrial biosphere models, but also major improvements in the simulation of regional precipitation by Global Climate Models.
Silage  production from olive mil wastes 
Authors: Manariotis Ioannis , Biliani Styliani , Manarioti Maria Varvara , Athanassolpoulos Nikolaos
Published: March 2024

Within the European Union, approximately 129 Mtons of food waste were generated in 2011, and about 52% of them derived from post-processing activities. The most common by-products originated from the food industry are spent coffee grounds, sugar cane waste, and fruit peels, while the main agricultural wastes are livestock slurry, manure, crop residue, and woodland pruning and maintenance wastes. The olive tree is cultivated worldwide, and more than 90% of the cultivated area is located in the Mediterranean basin. The olive oil extraction is carried out using two- or three-phase centrifuge systems. The olive mill wastes can be incorporated into the diets of productive animals, especially ruminants, due to their high fiber content. The aim of this work was to investigate the optimum conditions for silage production for animal food using olive oil wastes from a diphasic olive mill facility. Olive mill waste and straw were the base materials for silage composition: 53 to 55% and 45 to 47%, respectively (dry weight basis). Different mass ratios of molasse (0 to 4%) and urea (0 to 1%) per olive mill mass (dry weight) were used. The presence of urea and the absence of molasses turned out to be inhibitory factors for the silage process. The highest molasses rates the highest efficiency of silage production.
Transformations of soil organic matter induced by volatile organic compounds
Authors: Meredith Laura , Gil Loaiza Juliana , Castro Adrian , DiGuiseppe Antonette , Purser Gemma , Zhang Zhaoxin , Shen Qunli , Jardine Kolby , Chakraborty Romy , Brodie Eoin , Tfaily Malak
Published: March 2024

Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) are diverse and prevalent metabolites exchanged in microbial systems but are often overlooked as vectors of soil organic matter (SOM) transformations. Roots, litter, aboveground vegetation, and microbial metabolism are all sources of VOCs to soil; however, little is known about how they can contribute to soil carbon (C) cycling. VOCs have been shown to contribute to key soil C pools including microbial biomass, dissolved organic matter, particulate organic matter, and mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM), suggesting that they can participate in critical soil C stabilization pathways such as the microbial necromass conduits to MAOM. Yet, we still lack an understanding of the specific VOC-induced transformations in SOC, hindering the characterization of this process across soil and volatile compounds. To address this research gap, we conducted a soil incubation study to evaluate the contributions of VOCs to SOM composition. We hypothesized that VOCs would impact SOM composition and soil carbon pool magnitudes. We evaluated whether the diversity and quality of soil metabolites change in response to weekly additions of five individual VOCs over a 3-month period: methanol, acetone, acetaldehyde, isoprene, and alpha-pinene. In our study, we utilized soil matrices from a semi-arid agroecosystem, alongside sterile (irradiated) soil controls and silica controls, enabling us to distinguish between biotic and abiotic interactions. We monitored CO2 concentrations regularly as a proxy for microbial activity. Destructive triplicate samples were harvested each month for metabolite extraction and high-resolution SOM analysis by Fourier-transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FTICRMS). We found that VOCs stimulated SOM transformations and generally increased the number of lipids and amino sugars—markers of microbial biomass. VOCs a-pinene, acetaldehyde, and methanol had the most unique compounds, suggesting that these VOCs may support biomass production and its transformation, while isoprene and acetone had no unique compounds and may have predominantly been used for catabolic, CO2-producing processes. With this study, we aim to grow understanding of the role of VOCs in soil C cycling and their contribution to soil ecological and metabolic interactions related to carbon stabilization.
Technology Development, Field Assessments and Modelling Efforts for Sub-Seabed Basalt Storage of Carbon Dioxide on the Reykjanes  Ridge, Mid-Atlantic Ocean
Authors: Kopf Achim ,   AIMS3 research team
Published: March 2024

To meet temperature goals that limit warming to well below 2°C requires the removal of hundreds of billions of tonnes of CO2 from the atmosphere over the course of this century. Effective Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) methodologies will be required to reduce net emissions in the near term, counterbalance residual CO2emissions to achieve net-zero in the medium term, and contribute to net-negative emissions in the longer term– all of this in a sustainable and safe manner.The AIMS3 project (www.aims3.cdrmare.de) will deliver new insights, monitoring tools and feasibility assessments for CO2 storage at oceanic Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) sites, specifically in basalticrocks of the oceanic crust. The study forms a distinct progression of CO2 injection experiments carried out before (Sleipner gas release experiment, EU STEMM-CCS project, etc.) in former coastal subseafloor reservoirs or saline aquifers. Instead, AIMS3 focuses on the flanks of mid-ocean ridges where porous basaltic crust is overlain by thin sediment successions of low permeability as a cap. These basalts react quickly with injected CO2 (dissolved, liquid, or supercritical), which is fixed effectively in carbonate minerals without the risk of a later escape, ideally in deep water environments. Inflow of cold seawater and discharge of warmed hydrothermal fluids are focused and directed at such sites and help dispersing CO2 into wider areas, hence requiring fewer injection sites in case of future storage activities.The talk will present ongoing work at the Reykjanes Ridge south of Iceland. Together with industrial partners, AIMS3 is currently setting up a ridge flank observatory with a transect of boreholes through the fill of young sediment ponds into the upper oceanic crust. The boreholes are equipped with observatories, which will include a suite of cost-effective sensors, landers and robots to identify and quantify CO2 with high precision and accuracy. Here we outline the rationale of AIMS3, provide an overview of the activities, and highlight some of the expedition results, with the goal to stimulate communication and collaboration.
Identifying Flash Flood-Prone Subbasins in India Using Geomorphological and Meteorological Parameters 
Authors: Dilip K Nandana , Vegad Urmin , Mishra Vimal
Published: March 2024

Flash Floods are one of the crucial disasters in India which causes high mortality and damage due to its sudden onset and devastating impact. These events are projected to increase in India due to the warming climate and increasing unplanned urbanization.  However, India still lacks a robust analysis on flash flood susceptibility at a subbasin scale. In our study, we have considered meteorological and geomorphological factors to improve the susceptibility mapping, as flash floods are the result of high intensity rainfall in a short period of time and the geomorphology of the basin. We analyzed 17 different geomorphological factors of drainage, relief and areal aspects. Further, we calculated the flashiness index for all the subbasins within India using the model simulated streamflow. We forced a hydrodynamic routing model with reanalysis data to simulate streamflow at the subbasin outlets. We prepared subbasin-level flash flood susceptibility maps based on geomorphology, flashiness index and a combination of both. The integrated use of geomorphology and meteorology will provide a more robust framework for identifying the flash flood prone subbasins in India. This will help the authorities in focusing on the probable regions to plan mitigation strategies.  