The COVID States Project #19: Pandemic-related factors associated with candidate preferences
Authors: Green Jon , Lazer David , Baum Matthew , Gitomer Adina , Quintana Alexi , Ognyanova Katherine , Druckman James , Perlis Roy H. , Santillana Mauricio , Chwe Hanyu , Lin Jennifer , Simonson Matthew 
Published: February 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic and the associated economic fallout is the defining issue of the 2020 presidential election. Over 226,000 people in the United States have died from the disease as of this writing, and the daily lives of essentially everyone in the country have been disrupted in some way. It is unsurprising, then, that citizens consistently rated the pandemic as the most important problem facing the country throughout the summer (our team plans to publish a deeper dive into the issues voters see as most important later this week on covidstates.org).Moreover, the major party presidential candidates have taken markedly different stances regarding the threat that the pandemic poses, and how to best address it through changes to personal behaviors and public policy. President Trump has generally downplayed the threat posed by the virus by encouraging the resumption of activities from in-person public school to major sporting events, repeatedly claiming that the virus will eventually go away on its own, and continuing to hold campaign rallies (even while he himself was at risk of infecting others with the virus). By contrast, Joe Biden has expressed skepticism that the country is ready to return to normal, endorsed more direct government intervention to mitigate the spread of the disease, and adopted a more socially-distant campaign in general.While the pandemic has certainly commanded a plurality of attention during this campaign season, it remains unclear how it will influence the election’s outcome. Levels of concern regarding the pandemic and support for pandemic-related public policy measures are sharply divided along partisan lines, which is likely at least in part due to the polarized messages communicated by partisan leaders regarding the severity of COVID-19. And while economic downturns of the scale we are currently experiencing would normally predict serious electoral problems for an incumbent president, the unusual nature of this recession − precipitated by deliberate changes to the domestic economy, with the goal of slowing the spread of a deadly disease − may make voters reluctant to blame President Trump for the poor economic conditions.In this report, we provide preliminary evidence regarding one aspect of the relationship between the ongoing pandemic and the 2020 election. Specifically, we ask about the degree to which vote choice is associated with attitudes and behaviors regarding the pandemic, and whether the pandemic may be making voters who would otherwise be likely to support Donald Trump for re-election reluctant to do so. Throughout, our analysis is restricted to likely participants in the two-party contest this November − that is, respondents who say they are registered to vote, are very likely to vote in the 2020 election or have already voted, and are supporting Joe Biden, Donald Trump, or are undecided.