bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A quem se destinam as chamadas públicas? Os desafios da participação dos agricultores familiares no Programa Nacional de Alimentação Escolar no município do Rio de Janeiro
Authors: Hunger Raquel , Campos Flávia Milagres , Padrão Susana Moreira
Published: September 2022

O estudo teve como objetivo analisar os desafios da agricultura familiar no processo de comercialização de alimentos para o Programa Nacional de Alimentação Escolar (PNAE), no município do Rio de Janeiro. Trata-se de uma pesquisa documental, de abordagem qualiquantitativa, de dados secundários, no período de 2017 a 2019. A análise identificou que os desafios se apresentam tanto em relação ao acesso ao mercado institucional como ao que tange às condições de comercialização. As exigências documentais das chamadas públicas e a ausência de comunicação entre agentes públicos da Prefeitura Municipal e produtores, dificultam o acesso ao mercado, já a forma de entrega descentralizada dos alimentos às unidades escolares e os custos de logística criam obstáculos para a comercialização. Embora mudanças significativas tenham ocorrido nas exigências apresentadas pelas chamadas públicas durante o período estudado, permanece a baixa adesão dos agricultores familiares ao processo. Questiona-se então, se apenas alterações nas chamadas públicas serão suficientes para promover a inclusão sócio produtiva dos agricultores familiares e a promoção da segurança alimentar e nutricional no ambiente escolar no município do Rio de Janeiro.
Aspectos gerais da proteção internacional dos Direitos Humanos, Sociais e Culturais pela Organização das Nações Unidas (ONU) e pela Organização dos Estados Americanos (OEA)
Authors: Dantas Neto Miguel Souza , Guimarães Antônio Márcio Da Cunha
Published: September 2022

Através de pesquisa bibliográfica e análise documental, o presente artigo tem por objetivo fornecer um panorama da proteção internacional dos direitos humanos econômicos, sociais e culturais nos âmbitos global (ONU) e interamericano (OEA), explicitando os marcos normativos gerais, os desafios de implementação destes direitos e algumas das principais conclusões dos órgãos de monitoramento e julgamento a respeito do tema. O estudo se justifica para a compreensão do dilema entre a concepção holística e indivisível dos direitos humanos – prevista na Declaração Universal dos Direitos Humanos, ratificada na Primeira Conferência Mundial de Direitos Humanos da ONU em Teerã (1968) e na Segunda Conferência Mundial de Direitos Humanos da ONU em Viena (1993) – e o débil estágio de efetividade dos direitos humanos econômicos, sociais e culturais como obrigações jurídicas internacionais, o que se agrava pelo fato de que mais de vinte por cento da população mundial atualmente vive em situação de extrema pobreza, sem acesso à alimentação adequada, tampouco aos serviços básicos de saúde e educação. O artigo conclui que, não obstante importantes avanços no tema, sobretudo em virtude da pioneira jurisprudência da Corte Interamericana de Direitos Humanos, capitaneada no caso “Largos Del Campo vs. Peru” (2017), a comunidade internacional ainda se revela reticente em responsabilizar Estados pelo descumprimento de obrigações firmadas nas principais convenções relacionadas ao implemento de direitos econômicos, sociais e culturais, os quais ainda tendem a ser encarados como mandados de otimização e interpretados como princípios de estrutura programática.
“Untouched by your Do-gooder Propaganda”
Authors: Rosenfeldová Jana , Vochocová Lenka
Published: September 2022

The role of the media in polarizing the debate on immigration has been subject to a growing amount of research; yet little is known about whether and how online comment sections related to news articles on immigration reshape the journalistic narrative. This study examines readers’ reactions to the media coverage by employing a quantitative content analysis of over 6,000 users’ comments responding to 128 online news articles on immigration. It concludes that generally the discussants’ perspective does not differ significantly from the medium’s framing of the issue with one important exception: the human rights frame accentuated by the medium is strictly refused by the discussants. The discussants also bring the economic and cultural aspects of immigration into the debate. The article thus contributes to a more general understanding of the role the users’ discussions play in shaping the debates on controversial political issues.
Digital Reputation Management in American Cancer Hospitals
Authors: Medina Aguerrebere Pablo , Medina Eva , Gonzalez Pacanowski Toni
Published: September 2022

Cancer patients face complicated situations from an emotional, social and physical perspective. Hospitals help them through implementing corporate communication initiatives based on social media platforms. This win-win relationship allows hospitals to reinforce their brand reputation. This paper aims to better understand how cancer hospitals manage social media platforms for enhancing their brand as well as their relationships with stakeholders. To do that, we carried out a literature review about corporate communication in health organizations, as well as a content analysis about how the top 100 American cancer hospitals managed their corporate website as well as their corporate profile on Facebook, Twitter and YouTube for branding initiatives. Finally, we proposed the Reb Model for Branding Cancer Hospitals. We concluded that thanks to social media, cancer hospitals can reinforce their brand because these platforms allow them to promote human values, improve their internal processes and become a true source of scientific information.
Rekayasa Perangkat Lunak Penentuan Jarak Terdekat Dalam Pengiriman Darah di PMI Kota Palembang Dengan Algoritma Branch And Bound
Authors: Pranata Andika , Hutrianto Hutrianto
Published: September 2022

Peranan Palang Merah Indonesia (PMI) dalam menunjang kinerja dari sebuah rumah sakit merupakan hal yang penting, hal ini di karenakan PMI sebagai pemasok utama akan kebutuhan darah bagi pasien yang ada di rumah sakit pada khususnya di Kota Palembang. Dalam melayani kebutuhan darah yang ada di kota Palembang, PMI kota Palembang selalu memberikan pelayanan yang baik, tertama dalam hal ketepatan waktu dalam pengiriman darah yang di butuhkan oleh rumah sakit. Travelling Salesman Problem merupakan perasalahan yang selalu di hadapi dalam suatu proses yang berkaitan dengan jarak dan waktu, salah satu metode nya yaitu metode Algoritma Branch And Bound yang menerapkan dengan membuat simpul – simpul dalam menentukan note untuk menempuh jarak tertentu. Kemudian setiap simpul diberikan nilai yang menjadi taksiran dalam penilaian. Dimana akan di bangkitkan dengan nilai cost yang optimal. Dalam proses pengujiannya terhadap 7 rumah sakit yang ada di kota Palembang dimana titik awal merupakan lokasi dari PMI Kota Palembang didapat jarak tempuh awal yaitu RS. Bunda Palembang dengan 1,88 Km dan jarak tempuh akhir terakhir yaitu RS. AK. Gani Palembang dengan 1.92 Km.
STUDENT PLACEMENT PREDICTION
Authors:   Computer Science and Engineering, Sri Ramakrishna Engineering College, Coimbatore, S.B PujhaShree , R Lekhasree , P Logasri , Jemima.D Darling
Published: September 2022

In an educational institution, the most important objective is the placement of students. For each and every student, the placement part is a very important one in college life because for some sets of students it is the future. The prediction of students will not be 100% accurate but it depends how the students perform in every part of the placement. So, to predict the placement package chance of current students, we can analyze the previous year’s students data. The data has been collected from the institution and certain pre-processing techniques are applied to the models. Different algorithms have different accuracy. Depending on the type of issue and dataset to be solved, different algorithms have varied levels of accuracy. As a result, we decided to assess the accuracy levels of three methods, namely Logistic Regression, Decision Tree Classifier, and Random Forest Classifier, with respect to our challenge and dataset. The efficiency/accuracy of each model is visualized and tested and based on the performance analysis, the best model results are declared.
ROLE OF HUMAN COMPUTER INTERACTION
Authors:   Department of Science & Technology Jayoti Vidyapeeth Women’s University, Jaipur, India, Raj Simran
Published: September 2022

Human computer interaction is developing now a days due to innovations in computer technology. The people who are young, educated and technically knowledgeable are involve in the experiment of human computer interaction. This paper aim is to focuses on the intellectual model in Human Computer Interaction. There are different methodologies of this review paper and among them is call attention to the current method, results and the tendencies in the human computer interaction and the second approach to discover a approach that have been discovered earlier but nowadays trailing behind. This paper also covers the emotional intelligence aspect of the user such as fidelity prototyping. The progress and strategy of an automated system that perform such task is still being accomplished.
CHARACTER RECOGNITION
Authors:   Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Sri Ramakrishna Engineering College, Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu, India, Narmatha S , Pooja Shree R , Prajashni R. S. , Kumar S. Ranjith
Published: September 2022

Character recognition has numerous applications namely postal addresses, bank check amounts, documents, number plates, etc. Development of a recognition system is an emerging need for digitizing handwritten documents that use Tamil characters. Therefore, we created a prediction model to recognize Tamil characters, the model works based on the Deep convolutional neural network (CNN). In this project, model is sequential. It is like a derivation of LeNet-4 architecture, including a dropout layer.A dataset for few Tamil characters is created, along with the recognition model. It helps people in identifying the exact script written in document, where some may find it difficult to recognize the characters written in paper due to colloquial writing and different handwriting styles. CNN have given excellent results to old fashioned shallow networks in acknowledgement tasks. To avoid overfitting in the recognition model, accuracy is increased by using dropout layer and dataset increment method. With the help of these methods in the CNN model, test accuracy rate was increased. The modifiedCNN architecture achieved a highest test accuracy of 97.75%.
Geochemical and isotopic study of groundwaters in the Mitidja coastal plain, north‑central Algeria
Authors: Dalale Khous , Adnane. s Moulla , Hamid Ait Amar , Hadjer Chorfi , Mohamed El .H Cherchali , Messaouda Belaid , Sid-Ali Ouarezki , Mounia Benchabane
Published: September 2022

The deterioration of the environment and more specifically the aquatic medium has nowadays become progressively an issue of great concern worldwide. In the current context of climate change and demographic / economic growth, Algeria is subjected to an increasing stress on water. Due to its relative poorness in surface water harvesting capabilities, the relatively easier exploitation of aquifers became the preferred source for water allocation both to population and to agriculture/industry in Algeria. Mitidja plain that is located south of the capital city Algiers, is the country’s most expanded sublittoral Mediterranean plain.It occurs in the central-north of Algeria, it is oriented East-West and extends over a length of 80 km and a width of 10-20 km. It comprises aquifers that are the main source of drinking water for the whole north-central part of the country. The intensification of industrial and agricultural activities combined with demographic growth and urbanization of the plain, resulted in a clear increase in demand for water accompanied by significant problems of degradation of the groundwater quality. The major ion hydrochemistry and environmental isotope composition (18O, 2H,3H) of Mitidja alluvial groundwaters were investigated to identify the sources and the processes that affect groundwater composition, water origin, and timing of recharge.

The interpretation of the hydro-geochemical data suggests that groundwater composition is largely controlled by the water-rock interactions, particularly the dissolution of evaporate minerals (Halite,Gypsum/Anhydrite) and ion exchange processes. Elevated content of nitrates indicates that agricultural activities are probably the most significant anthropogenic sources of nitrogen contamination.

The concentrations of Fe, Mn, Pb, and Cd in most samples were found higher than the prescribed limits defined by the World Health Organization (WHO). The application of the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for trace metals identified two sources of pollution- natural and anthropogenic sources. Information inferred from Oxygen-18 and deuterium ratios reflected the existence of recharge through non-evaporated modern rainfall mostly originating from Mediterranean air masses. Measurable tritium concentrations in groundwaters allowed qualitative identification of the present-day component. It is confirmed thus that this component of the alluvial aquifer is supplied by recent rainfall taking place during the rainy season.
A new semi-Bayesian robust estimation method for spatially distributed models
Authors: Gejadze Igor , Oubanas Hind , Malaterre Pierre-Olivier
Published: September 2022

Models with spatially distributed parameters are commonly used in geophysical sciences. An important problem is to estimate the model's driving conditions using incomplete observations of the state variables,  obtained in-situ or remotely. This problem could be ill-posed when the information content of observations is not sufficient. The situation is further aggravated if the parameters of the model are not well known. A usual approach is to consider the extended formulation where the driving conditions and parameters are estimated simultaneously. The extended problem, however, often suffers from equifinality. For the high-dimensional distributed models (including those in hydraulics and hydrology applications) the variational approach is often used due to its computational feasibility. In this approach one looks for the mode of the posterior pdf using minimization methods. However, if the uniqueness of the solution is not guarantied, the posterior pdf could be multimodal or even infinite-modal, i.e. the mode may no longer be considered as a useful representation of the posterior pdf. In contrast, the mean of any (bounded) pdf is unique. The posterior mean is computed in full Bayesian methods, such as MCMC for example. However, these algorithms are not useful in high-dimensional estimation.

We present a hybrid semi-Bayesian method which combines the elements of Bayesian and variational estimation. Here, each distributed coefficient is represented as a product of its mean value and the 'shape' function. The latter are estimated using the variational estimation, whereas the means - using the direct Bayesian approach. The two steps constitute an estimation cycle, which is repeated after the information exchange. In a broad sense, the method can be considered as a variant of the variational Expectation-Maximization method. The method is illustrated in application to the convection-diffusion transport model (generalized Burgers equation). Next, the results of solving the river discharge estimation problem in the SWOT data processing context are presented. In the latter case the full Saint-Venant equations based hydraulic model SIC is used. 
Data rescue and valorization of old data. Application to rainfall data in Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast using NUNIEAU software
Authors: Paturel Jean-Emmanuel , Kouacou Berenger , Lohou Franck , Pons Frédéric , Dje Bernard , Coulibaly Naky , Karambiri Harouna , Borrell Valérie , Ogilvie Andrew , Servat Eric
Published: September 2022

In 2007, the WMO Executive Council, at its 66th session, recalled Resolution 16, which gives priority to the rescue and digitization of climate archives and to promote global and regional initiatives to collaborate on DARE (data rescue) and the exchange of scientific knowledge and related technological advances. The Council urged Members to make every effort to prevent the deterioration of climate-relevant data and to make these data available to support climate change analyses and relevant climate services.

Within the framework of operational and scientific research actions around the updating of hydrological standards in West Africa (ActNAO project)  and in response to the call of the WMO, we used the NUNIEAU software (NUmérisation de NIveaux d'EAU en mer ou en rivières - CEREMA's free software) which allows the digitization of all types of paper documents by automatic recognition. This software has been used on rainfall maps in Burkina Faso and Ivory Coast. The use of this tool allows rainfall analysis on an intraday time step, a time step that is very useful for the sizing of structures and networks, the knowledge and management of flash floods in small basins, particularly urban basins, and flood prevention actions...

For example, Intensity-Duration-Frequency curves were reviewed and compared to old ones in order to follow the evolution of rainy events in a context of climate change in Burkina Faso and Côte d’Ivoire. The tendency would be an intensification of short duration rainfall.

This product is intended to be disseminated and dedicated training courses have been organized for researchers and stakeholders in the South and North.

 
 Multi-isotopic approach to identify groundwater flow paths, relationships with rivers and sources of contaminants in the Regional Quaternary Aquifer of the Lake Chad Basin.
Authors: Nlend Bertil , Song Fricelle , Ngo Boum-Nkot Suzanne , Huneau Frédéric , Garel Emilie , Nkoue Raoul , Mahamat Nour Abdallah , Etame Jacques
Published: September 2022

The regional Quaternary aquifer of the Lake Chad Basin represents a major resource crossing several countries in the Sahel region. It is intensively used for many purposes, including drinking water supply, domestic uses, breeding and irrigation. However, this resource already undergone the climate change effects and the strong pressure of human activities. For instance, some authors shown that in Cameroon, the NO3- contents have increased by a factor of six between 1993 and 2013. It is therefore urgent to propose pragmatic water management strategies in this region, which will be based on a total understanding of the aquifer functioning. To achieve this objective, major ions chemistry and isotopic tools were combined. It is the first time that a such multi-proxy study is conducted in the region. Chemical analyses revealed that the geogenic influence is marked by dissolution, hydrolysis of silicate minerals, and possible cation exchanges. The nitrates content up to 1500 mg/l confirm the high impact of anthropogenic activities on this resource. Water stable isotopes show the contribution of surface water in addition to actual rainwater, in the recharge of the aquifer while 3H and 14C highlight that the Quaternary aquifer gathers both recent and old groundwater (~1500 years). Above all, these radioactive tracers helped to identify the different flow paths: a shallower one (under an active recharge from river and rainwater), a deep one (with the lowest concentrations in 3H and 14C, more protected from surface pollutants and dominated by geogenic processes) and an intermediate level attesting a mixing between the deep and shallower levels. Finally, thanks to δ15N-NO3 and δ18O-NO3 three main sources of nitrates were identified: (i) deposits of nitrogenous organic matter (animal excrement, manure, household waste); (ii) naturally synthesized nitrate in the soil; and (iii) nitrate from nutrients of the paleo-sea. A conceptual model of the regional Quaternary aquifer can then now be proposed in 02 points: (i) the existence of distinct flow paths with the deep one which is strategic especially for drinking purpose and (ii) the dependence of the aquifer to perennial rivers.
Research to support water resources planning in the Murray-Darling Basin
Authors: Post David , Robertson David , Lester Rebecca , Chiew Francis
Published: September 2022

Many hydrological models (GR4J, Sacramento and SIMHYD for example) currently exist to reproduce hydrological response at a catchment scale. Some models (IQQM, Source for example) also exist to assess the impacts of human interventions designed to in some way optimise the use of water in regulated river systems. There are however a much smaller number of models designed to assess the impacts of water resources management on socio-economics, the community and the environment more broadly.

A current program of work known as MD-WERP – the Murray-Darling Water and Environment Research Program, seeks to improve the understanding and representation of key processes in hydrological models used to underpin basin analysis and planning. We are working with policy makers and water managers in State and Federal government to apply these models to assess the impacts of water resource management options on hydrological, ecological and socio-economic outcomes in the Murray-Darling Basin. This will allow planners to consider a wide range of management options in the review and revision of the Murray-Darling Basin Plan that is scheduled for the next few years.

The vast majority of global and regional climate models, as well as understanding of changes in global and regional circulation patterns suggest a drier future for the Murray-Darling Basin with consequently more frequent and severe droughts. The management options to be assessed therefore are primarily those that minimise the impacts of drier conditions on the environment, irrigators and the Basin community, along with models that allow assessments of trade-offs between these disparate water users to be made.

The models that are required to assess these adaptation options need to be diverse, covering not only things such as changes in rainfall and hydrological response, but also climate adaptation options in river system operations, conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water, water trading and allocation, and consequent impacts on the environment, irrigators, basin communities and First Nations groups.

This presentation will provide an overview of MD-WERP with a focus on the climate adaptation and hydrology themes, assessing how modelling tools can be used to better inform Basin-wide water resources policy and planning.
Untangling land use and climate impacts on catchment water quality: Decadal trends in catchment dissolved organic carbon export in response to wind farm development on peatland
Authors: Heal Kate , Elayouty Amira , Waldron Susan , Scott E. Marian , Pickard Amy
Published: September 2022

Wind farms can help to mitigate increasing atmospheric carbon (C) emissions. However, disturbance caused by wind farm development must not have lasting deleterious impacts on landscape C sequestration. To understand the effects of wind farms on peatlands, we monitored streamwater in five catchments (5.7–31 km2area) draining Europe’s second largest onshore wind farm at Whitelee, Scotland, UK for 10 years after wind farm development that occurred in phases. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations were measured every 2–4 weeks and DOC fluxes estimated using flow from either direct measurements in the catchments or scaled via catchment area from a nearby river flow gauge. Similar measurements were made at a nearby peatland catchment unimpacted by wind farm development that acted as the best possible reference site. Generalised additive mixed models (GAMM) were fitted to all catchments to assess differences in trends and seasonality in DOC and flow between catchments. Interactions terms allowed for the possibility of changing seasonal patterns, and temporal correlations were included in the models and formal testing using an AR(1) structure. Change points in DOC trends were identified using first derivatives of the estimated trends and compared with the timings of wind farm construction. DOC exports from the wind farm-impacted catchments are high at 17–34 g C m-2 year-1. The models showed increasing trends in streamwater DOC concentrations and fluxes in the wind farm-impacted catchments, with timing apparently synchronous with the development phases. In contrast, streamflows were more stable. Trends and seasonality of DOC concentrations and fluxes were different in the reference catchment during the study period. Hydrological and biogeochemical processes driving the DOC response of peatland catchments to wind farm development will be discussed, and their consequences for landscape C sequestration assessed.
Impacts of climatic extremes on the production of hydroelectric energy from the Faé dam in San-Pédro (South-West Côte d'Ivoire)
Authors: Yao Affoué Berthe , Akaffou Franck Hervé , Eblin Sampah Georges , Komey Abel Konan , Kouassi Kouakou Lazare , Koffi Kouadio
Published: September 2022

This study focused on the study of climate extremes and their impact on the hydroelectric power production of the Faé dam. Indeed, climatic extremes such as droughts and floods cause not only human and material damage but also losses of hydroelectric production dependent on these climatic conditions. For this purpose, a number of indices were calculated using the Rclimdex software defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI). The analysis of these indices revealed that all extreme temperature indices (TXx, TNn, TX90p and WSDI) are increasing. In contrast, the extreme precipitation indices (CDD, CWD, Rx5days and R95p) show a multiform trend. Thus, the CWD, Rx5days indices have been on a downward trend while the CDD and R95p indices are on an upward trend. Therefore, the CWD index alone explains 38% of the variability in energy production. The coupling of the CWD index with each of the indices (TNn, TXx and CDD), explains significantly the variance of energy production at about 44%, 42% and 42% respectively. Considering all indices (CWD, TNn, TXx), explains almost 46% of the variability in energy production.
Aufeis Formation and Climate Change
Authors: Neupauer Roseanna , Lainis Alexi , Koch Joshua , Gooseff Michael
Published: September 2022

In river channels in artic environments, groundwater that discharges to the land surface during winter can freeze in the channel, forming large sheet-like masses of layered ice called aufeis.  Water stored in aufeis is released slowly as the aufeis melt during summer, providing a critical course of water to the Arctic river ecosystems late into the summer when other water resources are reduced.  Under warming conditions in the Arctic, the quantity of water stored in aufeis may be reduced and the release of water by melting of the aufeis may end earlier in the summer.  The processes that lead to the formation of aufeis are not well understood; however, an understanding of these processes is necessary to predict how rising air temperature may affect aufeis formation and the availability of water in Arctic river ecosystems.  This work uses numerical simulation to evaluate a conceptual model of subsurface hydrogeothermal conditions that can lead to the formation of aufeis in the Kuparuk aufeis field on the North Slope of Alaska.  At this site, groundwater flows year-round through a talik above the permafrost and beneath the seasonally-frozen active layer just beneath the land surface. Groundwater in this talik discharges to the land surface through unfrozen gaps in the active layer, where it can freeze and form aufeis.  We developed a 2-D heterogeneous vertical profile model to show that subsurface water can discharge to the land surface through subvertical high permeability pathways during winter months while the lower permeability soils near the land surface remain frozen, thus providing a source of water for aufeis formation.  We investigate the effects of the warming conditions on the magnitude and timing of these discharges, which are surrogates for the mass of aufeis and the timing of aufeis formation, respectively.  Aufeis formation and ablation are both sensitive to climatic conditions. The sensitivity analyses presented here form a basis for future investigations of aufeis dynamics across the Arctic.
Trend analysis of reference evapotranspiration and climate variables in the main hydrosystems of Senegal: Senegal, Gambia and Casamance River Basins
Authors: Ndiaye Papa Malick , Bodian Ansoumana , Diop Serigne Bassirou , Diop Lamine , Dezetter Alain , Ogilvie Andrew , Djaman Koffi
Published: September 2022

Analysis of reference evapotranspiration (ET0) trends is essential for understanding the impacts of climate change on water resources. Thus, despite the continuous rise in temperatures, a decrease in evapotranspiration is noted in some parts of the world. This contrast is called the "evaporation paradox" and is thought to be related to the variation in wind speed, relative humidity and solar radiation. The objective of this work is to analyze, based on the Reanalysis weather data from the NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) POWER project, the annual and seasonal trends of ET0 and climate variables at the scale of the Senegal, Gambia and Casamance rivers basins over the period 1984-2019. Mann Kendall's test and Sen slope were used to analyze trends in ET0 and climate variables. Results show that on annual scale, ET0 increases significantly in 32% of the Senegal basin and decreases in less than 1% of it. In contrast, in the Casamance and Gambia basins, the annual ET0 drops by 65% and 18%, respectively. On an annual scale, temperature and relative humidity show an increasing trend over all basins while wind speed and radiation decrease significantly. This confirms the existence of the "evaporation paradox" in the three basins. This phenomenon is explained by the increase in relative humidity and the decrease in wind speed.

Keywords: Reference evapotranspiration, Penman-Monteith, Mann Kendall test, Senegal, Gambia and Casamance River Basins.
Impact of land use on runoff, sediment and carbon exports in two small headwater catchments in central Morocco
Authors: Raclot Damien , Berrabhi Ihssane , Yassin Mohamed , Pépin Yannick
Published: September 2022

Soil organic carbon (SOC) is a key property of a wide range of soil functions related to soil stabilization, carbon sequestration, water/nutrients/contaminants retention, etc. As soil erosion is a very active process in the Mediterranean environment, it is likely to have a considerable impact on the stocks and future of SOC. In this study, we explore the impact of land use on water, sediment and carbon exports by considering two small headwater catchments in central Morocco with contrasting land use. Both catchments are located in the same area (less than 2 km) in a carbonate soil environment and semi-arid climate. They have fairly similar sizes (about 4ha), soil types and topsoil SOC stocks, but differ mainly in their land use: one catchment is cultivated with annual cereal crops while the other is a degraded catchment under sparse thuja (tetraclinis articulata) forest cover. The water, sediment and carbon exports were monitored for each flood during 2016-2017 hydrological year. The results indicate that all runoff, sediment and carbon exports occurred within a few days and that the majority of carbon exports (i.e. 82% in the agricultural basin and 78% in the degraded forest basin) were in organic form, with a strong dominance of particulate organic carbon. The export of organic carbon for each flood in the two catchments was closely linked to the quantities of sediment exported (R² > 0.97), the latter being highly variable from one event to another and therefore difficult to predict. Compared to the agricultural catchment, the degraded forest catchment exported more than 5 times as much runoff and between 2 and 3 times as much sediment and carbon annually. The degraded forest catchment therefore lost more carbon than its cultivated neighbour, which could increase its sensitivity to erosion in the form of a negative feedback loop. There is therefore an urgent need to consider better specific soil protection measures in this type of environment.
Bacterial water pollution and diarrheal diseases in West Africa
Authors: Robert Elodie , Grippa Manuela , Nikiema Dayangnéwendé Edwige , Kergoat Laurent , Koudougou Hamidou , Auda Yves , Rochelle-Newall Emma
Published: September 2022

In 2017, diarrheal diseases were responsible for 1.57 million deaths, including 606 024 deaths in Sub-Saharan Africa. This situation is due to domestic use of polluted surface waters, deficits in hygiene, access to healthcare and drinking water, and to weak environmental and health monitoring infrastructures. Moreover, climate change is expected to impact water resources by boosting the presence, dissemination and transmission of pathogens. Finally, Sub-Saharan Africa is undergoing major changes in terms of land uses, and demographic growth especially in rural areas.

Escherichia coli (E. coli) is an indicator for the enteric pathogens that cause many diarrheal diseases. This case study, carried out Bagre Reservoir, aims at filling the knowledge gap by analyzing the environmental variables that play a role in the dynamics of E. coli, and cases of diarrhea in West Africa.

Samples of surface water were routinely collected to measure E. coli, enterococci and suspended particulate matter (SPM) at a monitoring point (Kapore) during one year. In addition, satellite data were used to estimate precipitation, water level, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and SPM. Monthly epidemiological data for cases of diarrhea from three health centers were also collected and compared with microbiological and environmental data.

A positive correlation between E. coli and enterococci in surface waters was found indicating that E. coli is an acceptable indicator of fecal contamination in this region.

E. coli and diarrheal diseases were strongly correlated with monsoonal precipitation, in situ SPM, and Near Infra-Red (NIR) band between March and November. Partial least squares regression showed that E. coli concentration was strongly associated with precipitation, Sentinel-2 reflectance in the NIR and SPM, and that the cases of diarrhea were strongly associated with precipitation, NIR, E. coli, SPM, and to a lesser extent with NDVI.

Moreover, E. coli dynamics were reproduced using satellite data alone, particularly from February to mid-December (R² = 0.60) as were cases of diarrhea throughout the year (R² = 0.76). This implies that tele-epidemiology approach through the use of satellite data could provide an important contribution to water quality monitoring, and thus contribute to the establishment of warning systems.
Process-based water balance modelling with explicit ice flow dynamics: WaSiM-OGGM coupling scheme
Authors: Pesci María Herminia , Förster Kristian
Published: September 2022

The water balance in high-alpine glacierized regions is greatly affected by low temperatures and high precipitation. While snow accumulates during winter, maximum runoff driven by snowmelt is observed during spring or summer. Since glaciers act as huge water reservoirs, they might alter the hydrological response of the catchment across time scales, thus affecting the regional water supply or hydropower generation at the regional scale.
The Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) is a deterministic, process-based hydrological model that allows to describe the hydrological response of a catchment including the variability of glacier areas. In this context, an empirical volume-area scaling approach can be internally implemented to describe the glacier’s evolution. Although acceptable estimates can be obtained with this integrated approach, a representation of the explicit ice thickness is still missing. For this reason, a coupling scheme between WaSiM and a more sophisticated glacier model that accounts for glacier geometry including explicit ice dynamics is developed. More specifically, the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), which is an open source modelling framework able to simulate almost any glacier in the world, is used.
The coupling strategy consists mainly on three steps: i) a static model run of WaSiM (daily resolution) to obtain monthly values of temperature and precipitation that serve as input for the ii) second step, which is running OGGM. Finally, iii) a dynamic model run of WaSiM with the updated output from OGGM (i.e. annual glacier mass-balances) is performed. In this last step, the hydrological response of the catchment can be evaluated (for example, through total runoff). The coupled model is calibrated during the 3rd step, thus only WaSiM parameters are adjusted. In this way, no additional expertise on glacier modelling is required from the user, since OGGM is set up according to its default parameters. 
Finally, this coupling scheme could serve as a tool to predict the hydrological response of any glacierized catchment under different climate projections in the future.
High-resolution rain analysis in FVG, Northeastern Italy
Authors: Arnone Elisa , Treppiedi Dario , Noto Leonardo V.
Published: September 2022

The Julian Alps, located in the region of Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG, Northeastern Italy), record the heaviest precipitation annual totals in the country. Due to the complex orography and several other prone factors, effects of both prolonged and extreme precipitation can be particularly damaging in this area, causing debris flow, flash floods, avalanches. A proper planning of protection against natural hazards then requires the understanding of possible modification in rainfall characteristics. Since the mountain watersheds of the Alpine area are characterized by a very short time of concentration and hydrological response, extreme events are of particular interest, and rainfall analyses at sub-daily scale could not be appropriate.

The region counts on a dense ground-station network which is managed by the regional Civil Protection Agency, constituted by 2 main rain-gauges networks, based on CAE and Micros-SIAP technology, respectively; this last is co-managed by the OSMER-ARPA (OSservatorio MEteorologico Regionale-Agenzia Regionale per la Protezione dell’Ambiente) FVG. The networks count a total of about 200 rain-gauges; for some stations, data at 5-minute resolution are available since the 1996 (CAE network), whereas Micros-SIAP works continuously and at high resolution since the early 2000s. Over the last two decades, the temporal resolution of stations has been progressively increased up to 1-minute step.

In this work, we propose a comprehensive analysis of the available dataset at high temporal resolution (i.e. 30 min, 5 min and 1 min) in order to verify whether trends in very short rainfall duration are underway. At this aim, we first analyzed the continuous time series of data recorded by a sample of rain-gauges by the two networks. A preliminary analysis aims at verifying the consistency of the dataset at the higher resolutions. Statistical trends are then assessed by comparing two methods, i.e., the classical Mann-Kendall and the quantile regression at different thresholds and durations. The quantile regression method, which is increasingly used in hydrology, allows to detect changes in the tails of the rainfall distributions and to screen the whole rainfall time series, differently than the traditional methods that require a subset of data (e.g., the rainfall annual maxima).
Robustness of precipitation and streamflow extremes in the surrogate world of seasonal forecasts
Authors: Berg Peter , Klehmet Katharina , Bozhinova Denica , Crochemore Louise , Pechlivanidis Ilias , Photiadou Christiana , Yang Wei
Published: September 2022

Water and disaster risk management require accurate information about hydrometeorological extremes. Estimation of rare events by extreme value analysis is hampered by short observational records. Probabilistic seasonal forecasts allow assessing the uncertainty in the estimation of extremes. From meteorological seasonal reforecasts and therewith driven hydrological simulations, we create hundred- to thousand-year-long surrogate timeseries across Europe. We identify independent samples based on the assessment of the forecast skill, and extract precipitation and streamflow extremes to explore the impact of sample size on return period estimations. The analysis clearly demonstrates the large uncertainty in long return period estimates with typical available samples of only few decades. The uncertainty is reduced at 100-year samples, and stabilizes at very low uncertainty around 500 years. We discuss the benefits and limitations of this method, and how it can be applied to study climate change and multiple extremes.
Enhancement of seasonal hydrological forecasting with analogue selection of historical years
Authors: Yang Wei , Foster Kean , Pechlivanidis Ilias G.
Published: September 2022

Hydropower accounts for nearly half of Sweden’s electrical energy production, however the natural availability of water in the rivers is asymmetrically distributed throughout the year. As much as 70% of the annual streamflow is generated during the relatively short spring flood period (i.e., May – July) and the situation is further complicated by the fact that this occurs just when the energy demand begins to fall as the summer approaches. To offset these issues, operators must store as much of this excess streamflow in reservoirs for later use while still maintaining adequate storage capacity for flood control. Seasonal forecasts (up to 7 months ahead) of reservoir inflows are vital for the operational effectiveness of such endeavours.

To avoid the complexity and known biases associated with dynamic GCM-based seasonal forecasting approaches while improving the forecast skill, an analogue-weighted Ensemble Streamflow Prediction approach (A-ESP) was implemented in 84 sub-catchments across seven of the largest hydropower producing river systems in Sweden. The approach uses hydrological weather regimes (HWR) to select analogues from the of historical ensemble of meteorological data to force the hydrological models. Here, HWRs are classified large-scale atmospheric regimes used to describe “average” variability of local climate that results in precipitation events of similar frequency and magnitude. The selected analogues are pooled with the traditional ESP ensemble to make up the A-ESP seasonal forecast. We assess the forecast skill with respect to volume error and frequency of improvement using the ESP approach as the benchmark.

The results show that HWRs are a relatively simple yet useful tool for improving the forecast skill by offering objective criteria for analogue selection. Compared to the traditional ESP approach, the HWR-based A-ESP approach is able to reduce the inflow volume forecast errors by between 2-15% for all months and outperforms the ESP between 53-70% of the time. These results suggest that the analogue hypothesis to seasonal forecasting is still relevant and that using HWR for selection is effective. The comparative simplicity of this approach would offer operators improved forecasts that are both relatively computationally cheap and easy to implement, especially for operators using ESP-based forecast systems.    

 
Human-flood interactions: The role of economic inequality
Authors: Lindersson Sara , Raffetti Elena , Brandimarte Luigia , Mård Johanna , Rusca Maria , Di Baldassarre Giuliano
Published: September 2022

Economic inequality is a reality in many countries and is also increasing in many contexts. The consequences of economic inequality are multifaceted and, for instance, relate to issues of justice, access to welfare, long-term health and human well-being. Economic inequality within countries can also affect how susceptible populations are to flood hazards, both directly and indirectly. A large body of research has shown that the pre-disaster economic distribution within a society can affect the disaster outcomes. One example is that unequal societies tend to exhibit physical marginalization, and if these areas are burdened with malfunctioning infrastructure it affects the ability to withstand an extreme weather event.

In this work, we highlight the role of economic inequality in explaining flood losses worldwide. We conduct a statistical cross-country comparison and show that the distribution of income matters for reducing human flood losses, and that this applies at all levels of economic development. We then discuss how our results stand in contrast to some of the most common disaster reduction recommendations from flood management studies, particularly from studies conducted at large scales.
Long-term water imbalances of global watersheds resulting from biases in hydroclimatic datasets for water budget analyses
Authors: Tan Xuezhi
Published: September 2022

Assessing the water budget closures and source of water budget imbalances is fundamental to improve our understanding on changes in the hydrological system and their associated impacts. We analyzed the long-term (1982-2016) water budget for 1543 global watersheds by using various datasets for precipitation (P), evapotranspiration (ET), observed streamflow (Q), and total water storage (TWS). The results show that 93%, 80%, 43% and 20% of the watersheds shows water imbalances less than 30%, 20%, 10%, and 5% of their individual precipitation. The global average of water budget imbalance is -41.6 mm year-1 (1.8% of P). Watersheds showing large water imbalance ratio values are mostly located in the biomes of Tropical and Subtropical Moist Broadleaf Forests, Boreal Forests/Taiga, and Tundra. Different P, ET, and Q dataset combinations resulting in different degrees of water imbalance. The water budget imbalance shows a significant negative relationship with humidity index and vegetation coverage while a positive relationship with the proportions of irrigation area and watershed area. Showing small water imbalances for most watersheds, ERA5 precipitation dataset, MTE evapotranspiration dataset, and JPL TWS dataset performed better than other datasets in water budget in most biomes. The uncertainties of P, ET, Q and TWSGRACE contribute to 43.4%, 20.1%, 15.9% and 20.6% of the water budget imbalance on average, respectively. Improving the accuracy of P and ET estimates, and streamflow measurements are critical to a better understanding of water budget and improves the modelling of hydrological process.
Assessment of climate Change impact on water supply in Peru
Authors: Lavado-Casimiro Waldo
Published: September 2022

In this work, the simulation of the water supply has been carried out using the SWAT hydrological model to generate streamflows throughout Peru. For this purpose, 35 hydrological stations distributed in the 3 drainages of Peru have been used, simulating the entire country for the first time considering 4,355 sub-basins and 168 hydrographic units (HU); obtaining time series of streamflows for the period 1981-2016.
To evaluate the impact of climate change on water supply of Peru, three regional climate models based on dynamic regionalization have been used, obtaining time series from 1981 to 2065 with a spatial resolution of ~ 10 km. Based on these data, and using the delta change method, the streamflows generated in the period 2035-2065 versus 1981-2016 have been compared.
The results of the impact of climate change on water supply showed different results for each one of the 14 hydrological regions that Peru was divided. Spatially, the HUs with conditions towards a more marked decrease (increase) in flows are those located towards the center-south of the Pacific drainage and HUs dispersed in the Amazon drainage (north of the Pacific drainage). The uncertainties of hydrological modeling, as well as climate scenarios, are discussed in detail. All the results of this work can be accessed on the web portal https://idesep.senamhi.gob.pe/balance-hidrico/.