bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Development Aspects of Migration in Third World Settings: A Simulation, with Implications for Urbanization
Authors: Brown L A , Stetzer F C
Published: October 2006

In this paper we report a simulation addressing development—migration interrelationships in Third World settings and their implications for urbanization. Development is represented as the diffusion of demographic transition, employment opportunities, and formal and communication channels, which in turn affect informal communications and the overall economic base. The simulation falls within the genre of neoclassical development models, but, unlike many, explicitly explores the long-run aspects of landscape evolution. Our outcomes generally conform with expectations hypothesized in earlier research, including phenomena such as polarization reversal, converging regional disparities, and low-level equilibrium traps at small remote places where continual resource drain thwarts the agglomeration economies necessary for sustained growth. We also find that the initial urban system configuration has little effect on the final configuration, and that only urban size diseconomies are likely to alter significantly the size, spatial distribution, and spatial characteristics of the urban system.
Calibrating Urban Residential Location Models 5: A Comparison of Trip-End and Trip-Interchange Calibration Methods
Authors: Kim Y-S , Putman S H
Published: October 2006

In the previous articles in this series, the problem of calibrating residential location models has been extensively discussed. The discussion has been exclusively devoted to what may be termed trip-end calibration procedures. This was largely the result of the available data sets and the focus on multivariate multiparametric attractiveness functions. Most other authors dealt with what may be called trip-interchange calibration. This article presents a comparison of the two calibration approaches. With the use of artificial data sets to avoid obfuscation of the results, a series of calibrations were done by both techniques on thirty randomly perturbed versions of the same data set. The results show that both calibration approaches yield the same parameter values but the variances of the estimates are greater for trip-end calibration than for trip-interchange calibration. Some implications for practical application are discussed, with particular reference to the problem of consistency of trip-end and trip-interchange data.
Input-output Models for Regional Demographic-Economic Analysis: Some Structural Comparisons
Authors: Batey P W J
Published: October 2006

In this paper is presented a comparative survey of the many ways in which a static Leontief input–output model can be extended to include demographic–economic relationships. A family of ten input–output models is identified, with individual members defined according to their representation of household income, employment, and unemployment. Miyazawa's fundamental equation of income formation is generalised and used to establish structural relationships between the models, as reflected in income and employment impact-multipliers. Although the emphasis of the paper is theoretical, examples are given of the empirical application of existing models. Some of the models emerging from the analysis are new and offer considerable potential for impact studies in the future.
Structural-Equation Models of Migration: An Example from the Upper Midwest USA
Authors: Cadwallader M
Published: October 2006

To date, most migration models have been specified in terms of a single equation, whereby a set of regional characteristics are used to predict migration rates for various kinds of spatial units. These models are inadequate in at least two respects. First, they omit any causal links between the explanatory variables, thus ignoring indirect effects between these variables and migration. Second, they ignore the possibility of reciprocal causation, or feedback effects, between migration and the explanatory variables, even though it can be taken as axiomatic that although regional characteristics undoubtedly influence migration patterns, the reverse is also equally true. With the use of data for State Economic Areas, a path model and simultaneous-equation model are constructed to identify explicitly both indirect and feedback effects in the Upper Midwest USA. On the basis of the path model, it is suggested that the direct effects of many variables on migration are at least partially offset by the indirect effects, whereas the simultaneous-equation model emphasizes the reciprocal relationship between income and migration.
The Role of Attractiveness Functions in the Determination of Equilibrium Solutions to Production-Constrained Spatial Interaction Models
Authors: Clarke M
Published: October 2006

Much current interest in spatial interaction modeling centres around solving the Harris–Wilson equilibrium model. In this paper the role of different attractiveness functions is explored and some counterintuitive results presented and explained.
The Doubly Constrained Model of Spatial Interaction: A More General Formulation
Authors: Ledent J
Published: October 2006

Concerned with the doubly constrained case of spatial interaction models, this paper introduces a general functional form that subsumes the usual multiplicative (Wilson) and additive (Tobler) variants as extreme variants. Specifically, this formulation depends on a scalar Λ allowed to vary between 0 (multiplicative case) and 1 (additive case). A computational procedure is suggested and then illustrated by means of an application to interregional migration data.
Stochastic Panel-Data Models of Urban Shopping Behaviour: 4. Incorporating Independent Variables into the NBD and Dirichlet Models
Authors: Wrigley N , Dunn R
Published: October 2006

In this paper the authors describe the way in which the NBD and Dirichlet models of consumer behaviour may be extended to include independent or exogenous variables. Such methods allow the predictions obtained from these models to be disaggregated, that is, to be made conditional on the values of the exogenous variables. Empirical examples are presented of repeat buying of a branded good and at an individual store (for the NBD model), and of multistore purchasing (for the Dirichlet model).
The Household-Composition Matrix as a Notion in Multiregional Forecasting of Population and Households
Authors: Akkerman A
Published: October 2006

The household-composition matrix has been used in the past for single-region projection of population and households; here the application is expanded to multiregional projection of population and households. Geographic regions of residence are considered as household categories, and a household-composition matrix is constructed to indicate average numbers of persons by age per household, for each of the regions considered. Changes over time in the elements of the matrix occur according to the aging of population and according to constraints indicated by observed patterns of past household mobility. These patterns are listed as six possible household mobility types, which in turn, are viewed as constraints within which population growth takes place. With the assumption that external net-migration to the regions, as a whole, is known for a projected period, an iterative procedure is offered to estimate future population by age and region, as well as future number and average size of households by region.
Disadvantaged Households and Areas of Deprivation: Microdata from the 1981 Census of Scotland
Authors: Knox P L
Published: October 2006

In this paper, special tabulations of microdata from the 1981 Census of Scotland are used to examine patterns of disadvantage at the household level. The overlap of six criteria of household disadvantage is described by region, settlement size, urban subarea, household type, and housing submarket and in relation to ‘conventional’ ecologically-defined areas of deprivation. It is shown that disadvantaged households are disproportionately concentrated in the worst-off areas, though not overwhelmingly so, and that there are distinctive spatial variations in the nature of multiple disadvantage.
Modification of the Age Transition Model with Implications for Regional Migration Rates and Their Influence on the Reproduction Structure of a Population
Authors: Afanasyev A P , Chebotarev S P , Ryazantsev A N
Published: October 2006

Models are developed for the dynamics of the age structure of the population of a region into which there are migration flows from other regions with different fertility coefficients. The model is explored in detail for a three-age-group population. A number of optimisation problems are formulated which can be used for various planning purposes.
The Urban Rent Question
Authors: Ball M
Published: October 2006

Urban land rent theory has both fascinated and repelled researchers. The fascination stems from the idea that rent holds the key to urban spatial structures and distributional conflicts. The repulsion is based on bemusement at the complexity and jargon of the rent literature and rejection of rent's assumed centrality.

In this paper the author surveys the urban rent literature and presents an alternative interpretation of the role of urban rent. It is suggested that the ambiguous theoretical status of urban land rent stems from an overemphasis in the rent literature on the distributional implications of rent mechanisms at the expense of their potential influence on the social relations of building provision.

The neoclassical economics model of urban rent and land use is critically evaluated and the extensive attempts to apply Marx's theory of rent to the urban situation are questioned. The ability to revive Marxist urban rent theory through the treatment of rent as a component of structures of building provision is then elaborated by reference to housing provision and office development. When placed in such a historical context, it is suggested, rent takes on a more meaningful, if less messianic, role.
Production System Models of Residential Search Behavior: A Comparison of Behavior in Computer-Simulated and Real-World Environments
Authors: Clark W A V , Smith T R
Published: October 2006

Recent research has indicated that production system models of sequential decision-making can be both highly predictive of behavior in computer-simulated environments and related to cognitive knowledge structures. The authors present evidence from a study of housing market search indicating that ‘real-world’ behavior is related to behavior in computer-simulated environments and to the behavior predicted by production system models. Hence the use of computers to infer models of decisionmaking from behavior in computer-simulated environments promises to offer valuable insights into real-world decisionmaking behavior.
Cellular Worlds: A Framework for Modeling Micro—Macro Dynamics
Authors: Couclelis H
Published: October 2006

Cellular spaces have recently received a lot of attention in computer science and elsewhere as models capable of bridging the gap between disaggregate and aggregate description. Despite their obvious spatial interpretation, standard cell-space models are too constrained by their background conventions to be useful in realistic geographic applications. In this paper, a generalization of the cell-space principle is presented, based on discrete model theory, and then applied to a hypothetical but fairly complex problem of individual decision and large-scale urban change. The paper ends with a discussion of the wider import of this methodology, which has close links with, among other things, bifurcation theory, cognitive science modeling of individual decision and behavior, and other issues of actual or potential interest to geographers.
A Note on Relaxed Gravity Models
Authors: Hallefjord Å , Jörnsten K
Published: October 2006

Relaxed gravity models, that is, gravity models with upper and lower bounds on the marginal totals, often have solutions with the property that the upper or lower bounds are satisfied with equality for most marginal totals. In this paper modifications are presented for the relaxed gravity models, which overcome this unwanted model property. The paper contains illustrative examples with data from the county of Östergötland, Sweden.
Estimating Housing Mortality from Loss Records
Authors: Gleeson M E
Published: October 2006

A life table for housing is developed with the use of 1979–1980 loss data for one to three unit structures in Indianapolis, IN. Special attention is paid to methods of data collection and to estimation techniques. Use of the life table and assumptions made in its application are stressed. Also, standard loss projection curves are tested against life table results.
Misspecification in Spatial Interaction Models: Further Results
Authors: Baxter M J
Published: October 2006

Commonly used models for data on flows between sets of origins and destinations may often be misspecified because of a failure to account for the influence of spatial structure and other factors that affect flows. General expressions for the bias in parameter estimates that arises from such misspecification are derived for the most usual methods of estimation.
Theories of Interregional Trade and Theories of Value
Authors: Barnes T J
Published: October 2006

In this paper the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson trade theory, Emmanuel's theory of unequal exchange, and a trade theory based upon the work of Piero Sraffa are examined within the context of interregional trade. It is argued that a suitable criterion for judging between these three trade theories is their underlying value theory. After examining each of the three trade theories with respect to the various debates surrounding their value theories, it is concluded that a Sraffan trade theory appears to have, of the three, the most logically sound foundation. As a consequence, an explicitly spatial Sraffan interregional trade theory is constructed.
Shortcut ‘Input-Output’ Multipliers: A Requiem
Authors: Jensen R C , Hewings G J D
Published: October 2006

In this paper a critical review is presented of recent attempts to develop shortcut input-output-type multipliers from a variety of nonsurvey techniques. Particular attention is focused on the underlying theoretical assumptions and the dangers involved in adopting techniques which are not consistent with the underlying theoretical foundation of input-output models.
Crowds and Strategies for Avoiding Them in a Densely Settled Region
Authors: Rudel T K
Published: October 2006

In this paper, data from interviews with residents of the New York metropolitan area are used to examine the relationship between crowding and the adoption of strategies for avoiding crowds. The analyses reveal major differences between recreational and maintenance activities in the frequency with which participants experience crowding and plan to avoid it. Stage in the life cycle and the population density of the place of residence predict the frequency with which individuals encounter crowded conditions. Plans for avoiding crowds are closely linked with the individual's experience of crowding, especially in recreational activities. The implications of these findings for research and policy are briefly explored.
City-Size Distribution and the Size of Urban Systems
Authors: Thomas I
Published: October 2006

This paper is an analysis of the city-size distribution for thirty-five countries of the world in 1975; the purpose is to explain statistically the regularity of the rank-size distribution by the number of cities included in the urban systems. The rank-size parameters have been computed for each country and also for four large urban systems in which several population thresholds have been defined. These thresholds seem to have more influence than the number of cities included in the urban system on the regularity of the distribution.
Log-Linear Modelling and Spatial Analysis
Authors: Aufhauser E , Fischer M M
Published: October 2006

In the past decade the social sciences have seen an upsurge of interest in analysing multidimensional contingency tables using log-linear models. Two broad families of log-linear models may be distinguished: the family of conventional models and the family of unconventional models (that is, quasi-log-linear and hybrid models). In this paper a brief review of such models is presented and some linkage to the class of generalised linear models suggested by Nelder and Wedderburn is provided. The great potential of log-linear models for spatial analysis is illustrated in applying conventional and unconventional models in a migration context to identify intertemporal stability of migration patterns. The problem that the effective units migrating are households rather than individuals is coped with by postulating a compound Poisson sampling scheme.
Locational Variability in Retail Grocery Prices
Authors: O'Brien L G , Guy C M
Published: October 2006

In this paper a number of locational explanations of retail price variation are examined using a price survey of two shopping baskets in Cardiff. From the results it can be seen that distance-decay and zonal hypotheses are not supported by the Cardiff data but significant price differences do exist if the type of location is analysed with controls for organisational type and store size.
The Use of Matched-Pairs Research Design in Industrial Surveys
Authors: Peck F W
Published: October 2006

Surveys of manufacturing plants frequently require a representative sample of plants in a particular industry or geographical area. In this paper the usefulness of an alternative research design based on matched pairs of plants is evaluated. The design is illustrated with the use of a case study of the subcontract linkages of manufacturing plants. A new statistic is introduced which treats, in a more rigorous manner than conventional tests, cases where no differences were detected between pairs.
Structural Analysis of Social Data: A Guide to Ho's Galois Lattice Approach and a Partial Respecification of Q-Analysis
Authors: Macgill S M
Published: October 2006

A pedagogic exposition of Ho's Galois lattice approach for analysing social data is given in this paper. This provides a basis for respecifying Atkin's Q-analysis in a way that is believed to be more powerful, more economical, and accessible to a wider audience. Concepts of traffic and eccentricity are reexamined, but more generally, the suggested respecification may enhance the utility of Q-analysis and broaden its applicability, while remaining true to its underlying ethos.
Migration in an Economic-Demographic Model for the Canadian Provinces
Authors: Milne W J , Foot D K , Dungan D P
Published: October 2006

This paper is a description of the structure of a multiregion economic-demographic model for the Canadian provinces. An important part of the demographic model is the estimation of net migration equations based on a human capital approach and incorporating the adding-up constraint that arises since the sum of the net migration flows across all provinces must be 0 in each period. These endogenous migration flows allow for variables from the economic model (wage rates and unemployment rates) to influence the source population, the labour force and, therefore, the unemployment rate and other variables in the economic model. This economic – demographic model is then used in simulation experiments designed to show the economic – demographic interactions and how these lead to a moderation in the effect of policy.
Asymptotic Approximations of the Assignment Model with Stochastic Heterogeneity in the Matching Utilities
Authors: Leonardi G
Published: October 2006

A large-scale linear assignment problem is considered under the assumption that the coefficients of the objective function are imperfectly known but have a probability distribution. Asymptotic approximations are derived by using the statistical theory of extremes. It is shown how the resulting approximate problem has an easily computable form, provides a closed-form solution which has the structure of a logit model, and is embedded by a mathematical program whose objective function is related to entropy.
Internal and External Consistency in Multidimensional Population Projection Models
Authors: Keilman N W
Published: October 2006

In this paper the impact of consistency requirements upon the formulation of multidimensional population projection models is dealt with. The problem of internal consistency arises when certain output variables of the model have to be consistent with one another, as in models containing marital status (two-sex problem). External consistency problems arise when certain output variables have to satisfy externally specified restrictions. For instance, regional population projections may have to add up to national projections. The paper gives internal and external consistency algorithms, which control both for stock and for flow variables. Two approaches are discussed: a simple proportional adjustment for each relevant demographic component and an approach that minimises deviations in age-specific patterns of the input rates. Both algorithms are illustrated using data from the Netherlands. In the first illustration the internal consistency algorithm is applied to the age, sex, and marital-status-specific model of the official 1980 national population forecasts. In the second, external consistency is considered within the context of the multiregional projection model which was constructed for the regional population forecasts for the Netherlands.
Self-Selectivity Problems in Interregional and Interindustry Migration in Canada
Authors: Islam M N
Published: October 2006

The impact of selectivity bias on returns to migration between industries within or between regions is an important issue that remains more or less unresolved. Contrary to the commonly held belief that a migrant's decision to change his location is independent of his decision to change his industry of employment, this paper provides evidence that these movements are in fact interrelated. An analysis of migration that does not take account of this link may overlook the important implications of many socioeconomic variables in the migration process. Hence a comprehensive analysis of the various determinants of migration is performed. The determinants are classified under three groups—regional, industrial, and personal factors. The joint migration behaviour is considered as belonging to one of four mutually exclusive categories— change of location but not industry, change of industry but not the location, change of neither the location nor the industry, and change of both. The impact of individual determinants upon total as well as compound probability of each type of migration decision is analysed. Distinguishing among migration decisions provides a revealing picture of the returns to migration. The empirical findings reflect the presence of significant self-selection in migration decisions. The selectivity bias is found to be more pronounced in the case of industry migrants than for provincial migrants. Furthermore, it is also found that a positive bias is more likely to occur in the estimated earnings than is a negative bias. The existence of positive bias lends support to comparative advantages in migrant earnings. Given the estimates of earnings corresponding to various migration decisions, a rank ordering of the migrant categories is made. On the whole, migration between industries is found to result in a higher return than is migration between provinces.
The Influence of Job-Vacancy Advertising upon Migration: Some Empirical Evidence
Authors: Saunders M N K
Published: October 2006

Recent theoretical work suggests that vacancy information is important in the job search and migration processes. Empirical research has shown that the way an employer notifies a vacant post and the likelihood of migration are both related to the type of post. Migration has also been shown to be related to the migrant's personal characteristics. However, little empirical evidence exists to relate the way an employer notifies a post to the likelihood of migration, independent of other factors such as post type and age of successful applicant. The effects of this finding for recruitment policies are discussed briefly.
Lognormal Estimates of Macroregional City-Size Distributions, 1950–1970
Authors: De Cola L
Published: October 2006

A three-parameter lognormal model is used to estimate the city-size distribution of the world and of eight UN-defined macroregions. The model is found to fit the data better than the Pareto function, and to provide a powerful means of comparing distributions among regions. Although system concentration (measured by the standard deviation index) is relatively stable in Europe and in the world at large, it is decreasing in North America, Africa, and East Asia, and increasing in Latin America and South Asia. Cities in the 250000–500000 size class are somewhat more numerous than predicted, suggesting the possibility of some kind of ‘optimum’. The theory of extreme values is used to predict the most populous city of a region and to compare predictions with actual maxima, demonstrating that the largest cities in the world are well within systematic possibilities.
Multicriteria Evaluation of Land-Reallotment Plans: A Case Study
Authors: Janssen R , Rietveld P
Published: October 2006

In this paper an ex post evaluation of a land-reallotment plan carried out in the Netherlands during the 1960s and 1970s is presented. Given the wide range of effects taken into consideration, a multicriteria approach is adopted. Because of the ‘soft’ nature of many elements involved, special attention is paid to multicriteria methods dealing with qualitative priorities and plan impacts. Outcomes for methods using qualitative and quantitative data are compared.
Vacancy Chain Models for Housing and Employment Systems
Authors: Williams H C W L , Keys P , Clarke M
Published: October 2006

In this paper a new approach is developed to the analysis of stratified housing and employment systems which exhibit interdependencies between movers in the allocation process. Vacancy chain models, derived within a mathematical programming framework, are presented and their properties are compared both conceptually and numerically with standard models. The advantages of the new approach are illustrated in cases which require constraints to characterise the demand for or supply of stock.
Estimation of Interregional Trade Flows: A Markov Chain Approach
Authors: Weksler I , Freeman D , Alperovich G
Published: October 2006

Methods for estimating interregional trade flows do not deal explicitly with middlemen. As a result, in many cases, the estimated flows are biased. In this paper a model which allows an explicit treatment of the middlemen problem is offered. It is suggested that under some simple assumptions regarding the behaviour of middlemen, a Markov chain approach is appropriate. The model is applied to the Israeli dairy industry in 1973. The results obtained show that the mean deviation between gross interregional flows, which do not take into account flows from middlemen, and net interregional flows, which take into account and correct for flows among middlemen, is approximately 14%.
The Distribution of Population and Employment in a Polycentric City: The Case of Los Angeles
Authors: Gordon P , Richardson H W , Wong H L
Published: October 2006

The distribution of population and employment in metropolitan Los Angeles in 1970 and 1980 is examined in this paper. Population continued to disperse in the 1970s, whereas the geographical distribution of employment combined job clustering around a few major employment centers with a high degree of general job dispersion. In Los Angeles polycentrism has been associated with shorter work trips, particularly intracounty trips in the more peripheral counties.
Public Libraries in Salford: A Geographical Analysis of Provision and Access
Authors: Cole K J , Gatrell A C
Published: October 2006

The provision of public libraries in a metropolitan area is evaluated using 1981 Census data. Measures of accessibility to libraries are computed and the access of particular potential user groups is highlighted and explored empirically. Proposals for further investment in library provision are examined using Census data on the distribution of potential users and location — allocation methods. Last, the extension of the approach to look at the spatial organisation of a mobile library service is demonstrated.
Updating Input-Output Tables Using Employment Data: A Reformulation
Authors: Hinojosa R C , Pigozzi B W
Published: October 2006

In this paper a method is developed for updating input — output tables using employment figures. The technique is an improvement over previous conventional adjustments because of the general availability and quality of employment data. Operating on the Leontief inverse matrix, this reformulation builds upon prior attempts to integrate employment data into the adjustment process. However, this model avoids the need to develop employment multipliers independently by using actual employment totals as the constraints. These constraints are derived in such a manner that row and column constraints each sum to the total regional employment.
The Spatial Components of Demographic Change
Authors: Campisi D
Published: October 2006

In recent years, fertility in developed countries has drastically fallen towards replacement levels, so that further changes play an increasing role in determining the dynamics of population systems. In this paper, the dynamics of multiregional populations are analyzed when occasional perturbations resulting from changes in social and economic conditions exist. A perturbation theory for population models is introduced and the increasing effect of changes in demographic rates in determining the spatial component of the multiregional population growth is shown. Critical situations in which perturbations produce drastic changes are outlined. A numerical experiment is discussed: an oversimplified model of the Italian population is given and it is shown how the theory can be applied to focus the short-run and the long-run effects of changes in demographic rates.
Scheduling of Interstate Road and Railway Investments
Authors: Rothengatter W
Published: October 2006

If investment activities are restricted by binding budget constraints, it may be even more important to find a good time schedule for investments rather than to determine the optimal investment program for a future time period. The problem of scheduling investments for interstate road and railway investments can be formulated as a mixed-integer programming model. But this model is so large, that it is hopeless to try to solve problems of practical relevance. For this reason two ways of simplifying the problem are discussed. The first method focuses on modelling of budget feasibilities over time, and the second method stresses the interdependencies of network improvements. As these interdependencies are predominantly affected by the interrelationships between network structure and travel flow pattern, it is important to model travel demand for competing transportation modes in a sufficiently precise way. An algorithm for combined two-mode modal choice and travel assignment is presented which generates the changes in travel demand affected by a change in the network structure in an efficient way. A test network is used to illustrate the computations and the efficiency of the methods presented.
Regional Conflicts in Poland: Spatial Polarization in a Centrally Planned Economy
Authors: Kowalski J S
Published: October 2006

An economic and institutional explanation of polarization processes in the centrally planned economies is presented. Conflicts between regions competing for resources and land lead through microeconomic and macroeconomic behaviour in a specific institutional framework to polarization in space in the centrally planned economies. Empirical evidence for the Polish case is provided.
Privatisation of Housing and the Impact of the Conservative Government's Initiatives on Low-Cost Homeownership and Private Renting between 1979 and 1984 in England and Wales: 1. The Privatisation Policies
Authors: Crook A D H
Published: October 2006

Since 1979 the main housing policy aim of the Conservative Government in Britain has been to privatise the ownership of housing. The housing programme has included policies to increase the supply and demand for low-cost homeownership and to increase the supply of privated rented housing. The aim of this and three subsequent papers is to describe these programmes and to evaluate their impact. In this, the first paper, it is shown how the Government's attitude to housing differs markedly from that of its predecessors and a description is given of the way the low-cost ownership and private renting programmes fit into the Government's privatisation ideology. The paper continues with a description of each of the initiatives of the low-cost homeownership programme. The next two papers are an examination of the number of sales involved and they draw on published research to evaluate the impact of the sales. It is concluded that, with the exception of the sales of public rented housing, low-cost sales have been limited, but that those who have bought have reaped benefits during a period when other housing and economic policies militated against homeownership. Not all buyers receiving the extra subsidies involved in the programme were in priority social or housing need groups. There is doubt whether the houses involved will be permanently low cost. There is also doubt if the growth of homeownership amongst low-income groups can be unproblematic in relation to their housing and living standards, problems which need state support to be resolved. The fourth paper in the series is an examination of the initiatives in respect of private renting and it is concluded that these, too, had little impact because they were largely irrelevant to the fundamental difficulties facing landlords and tenants. The four papers in this series appear in sequence in successive issues of this journal. Together they show that privatisation policies cannot be achieved without continuing state support and intervention in the form of subsidies and regulation.
Errors in Variables: A Problem in Regression and its Solution
Authors: Thomson K J , Willis K G
Published: October 2006

It is not uncommon in socioeconomic analysis to measure variables with error, as in a 10% census. The estimation of linear regression coefficients using such ‘errors-in-variables’ models requires modification of the usual ordinary least squares techniques. The underlying theory both for simple and for multiple regression models is explained, and followed up with a numerical example based on a structure plan model of car ownership.
Residential Mobility in Dutch Housing Markets
Authors: Clark W A V , Deurloo M C , Dieleman F M
Published: October 2006

A one percent stratified random sample of all Dutch households (comprising 62 000 households) is used to examine mobility in the Dutch housing market. Two techniques, proportional reduction in uncertainty (PRU), and logit analysis are used to evaluate the relative contribution of independent variables in explaining mobility across the tenure types and by housing market regions. The PRU technique is used to select the best variables and to simplify the categories of those variables before logit analyses. Given a reduced set of variables and combinations of categories, logit models are utilized to provide parameter estimates of the contributions of the independent variables. The PRU technique shows that it is possible to make considerable simplifications in the combinations of categories for variables, and the logit models (for owners, public renters, and private renters) indicate distinct differences in the combinations of variables which are most appropriate in each of these sectors. In particular, the logit analysis shows that the relationship between age and mobility is almost linear, but between income and mobility it is curvilinear, and that evaluating interaction effects adds significantly to our understanding of the reason to move or to stay. The models show that it is necessary to treat the three tenure sectors separately, even though age, just as we expected, dominates all sectors in terms of its explanatory power. Although there are not large regional effects, the models change for different regions of the country.
Towards an Alternative Conception of Job-Search Theory and Policy: Information as an Indeterminate Process
Authors: Clark G L
Published: October 2006

The theoretical heritage of job-search models is reconsidered, with a stress on their roots in neoclassical equilibrium theory. A different conception of the “imperfect” information problem is proposed, namely what is called ‘indeterminate’ information. Competing economic and geographical models of job search are reviewed and the logic of indeterminate information applied. A research agenda is introduced, which highlights the role that contracts play in allocating the costs of indeterminate information. Last, implications are drawn regarding the role of public policy.
Inside the Rust Belt: An Analysis of the Decline of the West Midlands Economy. 1: International and National Economic Conditions
Authors: Flynn N , Taylor A P
Published: October 2006

The decline in manufacturing employment in the West Midlands Region of England has been dramatic. This paper situates the changes in the economy of the region in the context of the changing international and national economies. It is argued that the shift in trading patterns from the old Empire towards Europe and North America made manufacturing sectors more vulnerable to competition both in the home market and in the overseas markets. This vulnerability has been exacerbated by the high value of sterling at certain crucial periods.

National economic conditions and policies have also had detrimental effects on the regional economy, especially demand-management policies, which concentrated on consumer credit. The development of the vehicle sector has been disrupted by frequent and sudden changes in credit regulations. In addition to these problems, there is evidence that credit and labour-market conditions have both hampered development, and there is some evidence that land shortages in the conurbation have been a hindrance.

National government policy towards particular sectors has been applied without major attention being paid to its regional impact. Given the high level of integration of the regional economy, shocks to one part of the economy transmit themselves rapidly to others.
Data Use and the Simulation of Regional Input-Output Matrices
Authors: Harrigan F , McNicoll I
Published: October 2006

There is a growing body of evidence which suggests that, used in conjunction with a suitable estimation method, the incorporation of good quality exogenous data can enhance the accuracy of simulated or updated regional input—output matrices. However, there has been little attempt to measure explicitly the accuracy of simulation results in relation to the data used in their estimation. Within the context of programming estimation procedure, comparable measures of the ‘quantity’ of exogenous data and the accuracy of simulation are developed in this paper. Subsequently, this framework is demonstrated using Scottish and Washington input—output tables.
Industrial Decentralisation and Regional Policy in South Africa
Authors: Tomlinson R , Hyslop J
Published: October 2006

The South African space economy has recently undergone a restructuring in terms of the formation of development regions which cross Bantustan borders, the creation of regional financial and administrative institutions, and the implementation of an extraordinarily expensive industrial decentralisation scheme. In this paper the authors both describe these changes and set out to explain them. It is argued that the state is currently embarked on a regional or federalist ‘reform initiative’. Reform is taken to mean an authoritarian restructuring of the state on a less overtly racist basis. At present, for example, Regional Services Councils or revised forms of metropolitan government are being instituted. For the restructuring to be ‘successful’, however, coincident changes in the distribution of economic activity are necessary. As a result there is a critical relationship between the political—economic intentions of the state and regional economic policy.
The Fractal Simulation of Urban Structure
Authors: Batty M , Longley P A
Published: October 2006

This paper is addressed to the problem of developing realistic-looking patterns of land use and activity from predictions generated by conventional urban models. The method developed is based on a geometric model of irregularity involving hierarchical cascading and recursion, whose rationale lies in the emergent field of fractal geometry. First the idea of fractals—shapes with fractional dimension—is introduced and then it is shown how two-dimensional patterns whose dimensions are consistent with a large city such as London can be simulated at different levels of detail or recursion. It is then argued that the hierarchical structure of cities should be exploited as a basis for such simulation, and it is argued that discrete choice models of individual spatial behaviour have excellent properties which enable their embedding into such simulations.

The standard multinomial logit model is presented and then applied to house-type data in Greater London. A variety of models are estimated, house-type choice being related to age and distance from the centre of the city, and the spatial biases in these predictions are then mapped using prediction success statistics. These models are then used at the base level of a fractal simulation of house type and location in London. Random and deterministic model simulations are developed, and an unusual and possibly innovative feature of these simulations involves the way the inputs and outputs, data and predictions, are simultaneously displayed on the graphics device used. Conclusions for further research, particularly in spatial hierarchical modelling, are then sketched.
Housing Choice and Search Strategies within an Administered Housing System
Authors: Kintrea K , Clapham D
Published: October 2006

In this paper findings are presented concerning the behaviour of households moving into and within the public-housing sector in a major British city. In contrast to most research on the public sector, the approach adopted is explicitly derived from theories and studies of housing choice and search. Data from an extensive household survey of new council tenants are used to demonstrate that households undertake a range of search strategies which are associated with different housing outcomes. In particular, variations are shown to exist in stressors and subsequent search behaviour, in information usage, in evaluation strategies, and in spatial patterns.
Dimensions of Automobile Demand: An Overview of an Australian Research Project
Authors: Hensher D A
Published: October 2006

The major objective of the study of the dimensions of automobile demand (1981–1988) is to obtain reliable forecasts of the variables which drive the fundamental energy equation: energy consumed (litres) = efficiency of technology (litres per 100 kilometres) × utilisation rate (kilometres per period). Since the level of utilisation is unlikely to be independent of the state of technology, and since both dimensions are conditioned by the state of the economy and the nature of households as well as by the extent of corporate-sector support to the household sector, it is necessary to view the levels of vehicle usage and vehicle fuel efficiency as outputs of the broader household decision process.

This broader context can be represented by a study of the household's choice of automobiles (by number and composition) and level of utilisation. This perspective enables us to view vehicle efficiency and utilisation as derivatives of a study of the household's demand for mobility services, which is derived from the demand for end activities (consumption of goods and leisure). Since we are especially interested in the role of fuel prices and vehicle technology in the household's decision on the level of vehicle utilisation, it is desirable to monitor the response path of a sample of households over a period of time. A single cross-section approach cannot identify the influence of changing fuel prices on vehicle use, nor can it adequately accommodate the temporal relationship between vehicle purchase/disposal decisions and the utilisation rate. To represent satisfactorily the role of policy variables (for example, fuel prices, taxes associated with vehicle possession, standards for vehicle technology) in the context of the wider set of influences on household automobile possession and usage, the study members have developed an econometric model system which jointly models the household's choice of vehicles and utilisation level over the period 1981–1985. This paper provides an overview of the theoretical, methodological, and empirical dimensions of the project and, where appropriate, introduces some preliminary findings. The project in its entirety is due for completion in late 1988.
Existence and Stability of City-Size Distribution in the Gravity and Logit Models
Authors: Tabuchi T
Published: October 2006

An attempt is made to analyze reasons for and consequences of migration under zero population growth by use of a system of simultaneous differential equations. Intercity migration is assumed to take place based upon differences in utilities, where the utility function is expressed as a function of city size. It is revealed that a deterministic specification of the utility leads to an unstable distribution of city sizes, whereas a stochastic specification does not. Existence and stability of equilibria are examined for two representative stochastic migration models: the origin-constrained gravity model and the logit model. It is then argued that population concentration can be explained by an increase in urbanization economies, and population decentralization can be due to a decrease in intercity transportation and communication costs.
The Effect of the Environment on Party Identification
Authors: Upton G J G , Stray S J
Published: October 2006

A major factor underlying a person's voting decision is that person's identification with one or other of the competing political parties. Respondents interviewed in the course of the British Election Study surveys of 1974 and 1979 indicated both their party identification and the strength of that affiliation. This paper is an examination of the impact of the local political environment on the strength of an individual's party identification.
A Simulation-Oriented Regional Econometric Model
Authors: Cassing S , Giarratani F
Published: October 2006

This paper concerns the structure and application of an econometric model of the Pittsburgh region. A distinction is drawn between forecasting models and those to be used for policy simulation. With this in mind, a simulation-oriented model based on annual data is specified and applied.
Spatially Disaggregated input-output Tables: An Evaluation and Comparison of Survey and Nonsurvey Results
Authors: Willis K G
Published: October 2006

Although nonsurvey input – output (I-O) models have been used to estimate the employment impact of particular industrial aid programmes and policies in terms of their multiplier effects, their accuracy is questionable. Nonsurvey 1 – 0 models are estimated for Wales and Staffordshire and compared with previously published surveyed 1 – 0 tables for these areas. Disaggregating national 1 – 0 tables by location quotients produced biased multiplier estimates when compared with survey results. Incorporating some local information and using constrained (for example, RAS) nonsurvey techniques improved the accuracy and correlation between survey and nonsurvey multiplier estimates. An appreciation of the bias involved in different nonsurvey techniques should allow planners to evaluate the impact of economic events more accurately.