bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Drug Toxicity Prediction by Machine Learning Approaches
Authors: Shen Yucong , Shih Frank Y. , Chen Hao
Published: July 2023

Drug property prediction, especially toxicity, helps reduce risks in a range of real-world applications. In this paper, we aim to apply various machine-learning models for solving the drug toxicity prediction problem. Among various machine-learning approaches, we select five suitable representatives: random forest, multi-layer perceptron, logistic regression, graph convolutional neural network, and graph isomorphism network (GIN) for conducting experiments on six datasets for toxicity prediction, including Tox 21, ClinTox, ToxCast, SIDER, HIV, and BACE. We design the GIN with four hidden layers and select the Adam optimizer with the learning rate [Formula: see text] and the batch size [Formula: see text]. Furthermore, we use a batch norm layer inside each of the GIN hidden layers. Experimental results show that the designed GIN model is most efficient in distinguishing between safe and toxic drugs and outperforms the others under the supervision of ROC AUC score and recall.
Describing realizable Gauss diagrams using the concepts of parity or bipartite graphs
Authors: Lisitsa Alexei , Lopatkin Viktor , Vernitski Alexei
Published: July 2023

Two recent publications describe realizable Gauss diagrams using conditions stating that the number of chords in certain sets of chords is even or odd. We demonstrate that these descriptions are incorrect by finding multiple counter-examples. However, the idea of having a parity-based description of realizable Gauss diagrams is attractive. We recall that realizability of Gauss diagrams as touch curves can be described via bipartite graphs. We show that realizable Gauss diagrams can be described via bipartite graphs.
Nonlinear optical properties and applications of 2D metal oxides
Authors: Yang Yuting , Yin Xiaojie , Ma Yi , Liu Xiaofeng
Published: July 2023

Two-dimensional (2D) materials have stimulated continued interest due to their potential applications in fields from electronic, optical to catalysis and energy. Compared with the widely studied 2D metal chalcogenides, 2D oxides could be of particular interest for a ranges of applications where oxidative and high temperature conditions are involved. This feature of 2D oxides, combined with the inherent benefits of 2D systems could also be important for nonlinear optical (NLO) studies that involves strong light-matter interactions. Here we focus on the recent advances in the exploration of 2D metal oxides for nonlinear optics and ultrafast photonic applications. Along with a brief description of the crystal structures, fabrication methods and general properties of 2D oxides, we concentrate our discussion on the recent progresses in the nonlinear optical studies on 2D systems of both metallic and nonmetallic nature. The strong NLO absorption of these 2D oxides has been utilized for the development of optical switches for driving pulse generation in a number of fiber and solid-state lasers operating in the near infrared range. This review finally presents a brief analysis of main challenges of 2D metal oxides in the field nonlinear photonics and a short discussion on potential future directions.
Factoriality of mixed q-deformed Araki-Woods von Neumann algebras
Authors: Bikram Panchugopal , Kumar R. Rahul , Mukherjee Kunal
Published: July 2023

In this paper, we prove that the mixed [Formula: see text]-deformed Araki-Woods von Neumann algebras are factors for dim[Formula: see text].
A Unified Meshfree Path to Arbitrary Order Hermite Finite Elements for Euler-Bernoulli Beams
Authors: Wu Zhenyu , Wang Dongdong , Hou Songyang
Published: July 2023

The fourth-order governing equation of Euler-Bernoulli beams necessitates the employment of C1 Hermite shape functions in finite element analysis. However, unlike the C0 finite element shape functions that can be easily formulated as Lagrangian polynomials in a unified manner, the Hermite shape functions of Euler-Bernoulli beam elements are usually constructed case by case. In this work, a simple and unified meshfree path is proposed to develop arbitrary order Hermite shape functions of Euler-Bernoulli beam elements. This approach is realized by proving that the Hermite reproducing kernel meshfree shape functions degenerate to the interpolatory Hermite finite element shape functions under a proper choice of support sizes. The proposed approach provides an explicit formalism for Hermite finite element shape functions, which enables an easy construction of arbitrary order Hermite beam elements. Accordingly, in addition to the conventional cubic Hermite beam elements, explicit shape functions, mass and stiffness matrices for quintic and septic Hermite beam elements are presented. Meanwhile, the frequency errors and general higher order mass matrix formulation for these Hermite beam elements are elaborated as well. These theoretical results are consistently demonstrated by numerical examples with respect to both static and free vibration analysis.
Dynamic Response Analysis of Tunnel Underlain by a Soft Soil Layer Under the Near-Fault Pulse-Like Ground Motions
Authors: Wang Tianqiang , Geng Ping , Xiang Chenyang , Wang Liangjie , Meng Qingyu , Huo Fei , Deng Lin , Ma Shiqiang
Published: July 2023

Affected by the near-fault pulse-like ground motions, the tunnels emerged in adverse geology, especially in an inhomogeneous strata are more vulnerable. However, the quantitative index effects on tunnel response during pulse identification are unclear and the propagation features of the near-fault pulse-like waves in a soft soil interlayer site are seldom revealed. In view of this, an improved energy-based pulse identification was used in this study to quantitatively extract the potential pulse energies emerged in velocity time-histories of ground motions. Subsequently, a series of numerical simulations were carried out to consider the critical parameters of soft soil layer and input ground motions. Finally, the dynamic response of the tunnel and interaction differences of soil and tunnel subjected to three types of ground motions were revealed. The result showed that the near-fault pulse-like ground motions pose a commonly severe damage to the tunnel, especially in the high pulse period ground motions based on the energy-based pulse identification method. The pulse energy of ground motions is an effective pulse index to analyze the seismic effects on tunnel when pulse periods of two different ground motions are uniform, and the index affects the tunnel in dynamic internal forces. More importantly, the existence of soft soil layer severely affects the propagation of input ground motions. At frequency domain, the ground response increases at high frequency component in the near-fault pulse-like ground motion, while the response shows a decreasing at low frequency component.
Straightforward Free Vibration Solutions of Open Cylindrical Shells by the Finite Integral Transform Method
Authors: An Dongqi , Xu Jie , Chen Yiming , Wang Chengbo , Wang Bo , Li Rui
Published: July 2023

Straightforward analytical free vibration solutions of non-Lévy-type open cylindrical shells are obtained in this study by the finite integral transform method, which was not achieved by conventional semi-inverse methods. Three double finite integral transforms are imposed on the high-order partial differential equations (PDEs) for the problems, with some boundary conditions input, by which the relations between the transformed quantities and specific unknowns are given. Substituting the corresponding inverse transforms into the other boundary conditions provides systems of linear algebraic equations for determining the final analytical solutions. Comprehensive benchmark results for representative open cylindrical shells under different boundary conditions are shown. The results are well verified by other solution methods. With the present solutions, the effects of geometric parameters and boundary conditions on the vibration behaviors are quantitatively revealed by a parametric study. Due to its rigorous and straightforward solution procedure, this study presents a solid easy-to-implement way to explore new analytical solutions of similar problems.
Investigation of the Global Stock Trading Based on Visibility Graph and Entropy Weight Method
Authors: Wang Lubing , Hu Jun , Hu Yafeng
Published: July 2023

The increasing complexity and dynamics of the stock trading market are major challenges for the financial industry and are primary dilemmas for all countries nowadays. In addition, the stock trading market has a considerable impact on the global economy, and its importance is self-evident. To cope with the complexity and dynamics of a stock trading market, this paper applies complex network theory and model to explore the topology of the global stock trading network. First, this paper collects stock trading data from 74 countries from 1999 to 2020. It converts the collected stock trading data of these countries into a complex network using a type of algorithm based on the time series visibility graph (VG) algorithm. Then, the data are analyzed by a complex network model, and six analytical metrics are obtained. Finally, the six metrics are analyzed by the entropy weight method to identify the key nodes in the network and to obtain the ranking of each country’s stock trading data. This paper is an effective application of complex network and entropy weight method in stock trend analysis, which mainly includes two contributions. First, the VG algorithm provides a novel research perspective for modeling the global stock trading trend. Second, key nodes in the network are analyzed and identified based on the entropy weight method, and the ranking of key nodes in the stock trading network is obtained, which provides a new method for further research on the stock trading trend, investment portfolio, and stock return forecasting.
Systemic Risk Spillover Effects among China’s Financial Institutions: Evidence from the Spatial Econometric Model
Authors: Lei Ao , Tian Yixiang , Zhao Hui
Published: July 2023

This study investigates the spillover and contagion effects of systemic risk among Chinese financial institutions in terms of the conditional Value-at-Risk method and spatial econometric techniques. We construct different representative spatial weight matrices to demonstrate various risk connective categories and contagion channels. The spatial autoregression model is built to reveal the different magnitudes of systemic risk contagion effects and extended as the spatial quantile regression model to measure the change in spillovers across quantiles. The results highlight that the spatial agglomeration pattern of institution-level systemic risk is highly concentrated within the same sector but highly disparate between the different sectors. The closeness of the asset price channel and the information channel would enhance the systemic risk spillover effects among institutions. The higher the single institution’s systemic risk level is, the stronger its spillovers among all of them within the same financial department, yet contrarily, the spillovers are larger at lower quantiles between different sectors due to the disparate spatial tendency of systemic risk. Besides, the spillover effects across quantiles indicate the higher tail contagion of systemic risk spatial spillovers, especially during 2015 A-share market crash and 2020 COVID-19 outbreak.
Application of Artificial Neural Network Unified with Fuzzy Logic for Systematic Stock Market Prediction
Authors: Kumar Akhilesh , Keshta Ismail , Bhola Jyoti , Wasim Bhatt Mohammed , AlQahtani Salman A. , Gali Manvitha
Published: July 2023

Prediction of the stock market can play a vital role in everyone’s life to attain sustainable growth. This can also lead to an attractive profit by making the proper choices in the financial stock market. The stock market prediction is a big challenge which requires extensive advanced tools and techniques to analyze the future and present data. The modern stock market institutions provide better self-trading and investment options, enabling regular people and traders to enter the market through numerous online applications and websites that are available via smart devices. Financial institutions are investing more and more in talent development so that investors may make the maximum money. There are a multitude of reasons for this, including volatility of market and a collection of other interrelated and independent parameters that control the market value of a different stock. Because of these factors, it is excessively difficult for any specialist in financial markets to accurately predict the market’s rise and collapse. This research paper proposed an artificial neural network (ANN) technique which combines with fuzzy logic to predict the stock market for short duration with high accuracy. First, historical and real-time data are used to classify and gather information for prediction. Then the short-duration prediction is done with a high accuracy of 96% and the error margin for a small instance is 2.3%. Through training, testing and validation it is clear that for sustainable short duration prediction, ANN integrated with fuzzy is a good choice.
Archimedean classes in additive monoids
Authors: Izhakian Zur , Knebusch Manfred
Published: July 2023

Summand absorbing submodules are common in modules over (additively) idempotent semirings, for example, in tropical algebra. A submodule [Formula: see text] of [Formula: see text] is summand absorbing, if [Formula: see text] implies [Formula: see text] for any [Formula: see text]. This paper proceeds the study of these submodules, and more generally of additive monoids, with emphasis on their archimedean classes and quotient structures.
Conformally invariant nonlinear electrodynamic actions and its non-abelian extensions
Authors: Cirilo-Lombardo Diego Julio
Published: July 2023

In this work, formal theoretical aspects concerning conformally invariant functional actions of electrodynamics are presented and discussed. In particular, the origin of the conformal and duality invariant Lagrangians of [I. Bandos et al., J. High Energy Phys. 10 (2021) 031; I. Bandos, K. Lechner, D. Sorokin and P. Townsend, Phys. Rev. D 102 (2020) 121703] (e.g. ModMax) and also Born–Infeld types are analyzed being its non-abelian counterpart presented and discussed explicitly for the gauge group SU(2). Implications on the properties of the gravitational field are briefly discussed by means of new symmetries of the field equations.
Synthesis of Fe-g-C3N4/FePc/BiVO4 Nanocomposites for Efficient Degradation of RhB
Authors: Sui Tianshuo , Mu Jingbo , Yang Hang , Che Hongwei , Zhang Zhixiao , Wang Yanming , Zhang Xiaoliang , Guo Zengcai
Published: July 2023

A novel photocatalyst comprising Fe-g-C3N4/FePc/BiVO4 heterostructure was synthesized using hydrothermal and muffle incineration methods. The synthesized catalyst was subjected to characterization using SEM, XRD, EDX, XPS, photocurrent response, and EIS analysis. Results showed that the Fe-g-C3N4/FePc/BiVO4 heterojunction composites significantly enhance the efficiency and stability of degradation of RhB. The unique advantages of the heterojunction composites include a wide range of light absorption and a small electron–hole complexation rate. Compared to pristine Fe-g-C3N4, FePc, and BiVO4, the photocatalytic activity and stability were significantly improved. The formation of a new structure of Fe-g-C3N4 and FePc and BiVO4 successfully adjusted the electron transfer route, resulting in more active sites and improving the efficiency of photogenerated charge separation. Furthermore, a possible mechanism for the photocatalytic degradation of RhB was proposed.
A Study of R2T14B (R = Y, Nd, Gd, Ho, T = Fe, Co) Hard Magnetic Materials via Magnetometry and Atomic Force Microscopy
Authors: Tereshina Irina , Davydov Vladislav , Kaminskaya Tatiana , Pelevin Ivan
Published: July 2023

Magnetometry and atomic force microscopy (AFM) were used to study the magnetic and structural properties of the R–Fe–B-type (R = Y, Nd, Gd, Ho) alloys. The alloys were synthesized by means of induction melting. The nanocrystalline state of the R–Fe–B-type alloys was reached, mainly, by melt spinning (MS). A multistage treatment of R–Fe–B-type alloys, which included severe plastic deformation of melt-quenched ribbons and subsequent heat treatment, was also used. The surface morphology of samples was studied in detail to interpret the observed magnetic hysteresis loops of the samples. It was found that the type of rare earth ion and treatment methods had the most important influence on the microstructure and magnetic properties.
Stability of an (A,Q)-functional equation in a Banach space
Authors: Park Choonkil , Senasukh Jedsada
Published: July 2023

In this paper, we study an [Formula: see text]-functional equation [Formula: see text] in a Banach space and determine its general solutions (in certain groups). Moreover, we verify some stability results of the [Formula: see text]-functional equation as a consequence of a fixed point theorem in a complete metric space investigated by Brzdȩk et al. [A fixed point approach to stability of functional equations, Nonlinear Anal. 74 (2011) 6728–6732].
A generalization of bicrossed product of monoids
Authors: Çetinalp Esra Kırmızı
Published: July 2023

In this paper, we define [Formula: see text]-generalized Schützenberger-bicrossed product from the point of Combinatorial Group Theory. We give to be a monoid of this new product, then we obtain a presentation for [Formula: see text]-generalized Schützenberger-bicrossed product of arbitrary monoids. Additionally, we give the necessary and sufficient conditions for the regularity of this product.
A bipartite graph associated to a finite group
Authors: Mahtabi Mansoureh , Erfanian Ahmad , Mahtabi Robabeh
Published: July 2023

Let [Formula: see text] be a finite group and [Formula: see text] be the automorphism group of [Formula: see text] (i.e. [Formula: see text]). We associated a bipartite graph, denoted by [Formula: see text], to [Formula: see text] and its automorphism group [Formula: see text] as follows: two parts of the vertex set are [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text], where [Formula: see text] is the set of elements [Formula: see text] such that [Formula: see text] for all [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] is the set of automorphisms [Formula: see text] such that [Formula: see text] for all [Formula: see text]. Two vertices [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] are adjacent if and only if [Formula: see text]. In this paper, we investigate some fundamental properties of [Formula: see text] such as connectivity, diameter, girth, Hamiltonian, independence and dominating numbers. Moreover, planarity and outer planarity of the graph are studied.
Facile synthesis of spherical Li3V2(PO4)3/C and 2LiVPO4F⋅Li3V2(PO4)3/C cathode materials by spray drying for lithium-ion battries
Authors: Liu Jiequn , Hong Wei , Chen Qingrong , Wan Wubo , Zhong Shengkui
Published: July 2023

Monoclinic Li3V2(PO4)3 is a promising cathode material for lithium–ion batteries due to its safety performance and high theoretical capacity. However, the efficient and large-scale preparation of stable composite remains a challenge. Herein, spherical Li3V2(PO4)3/C and 2LiVPO4F⋅Li 3V2(PO4) 3/C cathode materials were prepared by an efficient spray drying method. The structure and morphology of the as-prepared cathode were studied via X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy. Li3V2(PO4)3/C synthesized at 750°C for 8 h shows the best crystallinity and uniform ball diameter distribution. Based on the optimized conditions, 2LiVPO4F⋅Li3 V2(PO4)3/C was also successfully prepared in the same way. Electrochemical results indicate that Li3V2(PO4)3/C exhibits a superior initial discharge-specific capacity of 143.6 mAh⋅g[Formula: see text]at 0.1 C rate in the range of 3.0–4.5 V, corresponding to a capacity decay rate of 2.79% after 50 cycles. The multi-voltage platform of 2LiVPO 4F⋅Li3V2(PO4)3/C has the advantage of high energy density. The good electrochemical performance reveals that spray drying was a promising approach to prepare monoclinic Li3V2(PO4)3 series cathode materials.
Classification of Low- and High-Entropy File Fragments Using Randomness Measures and Discrete Fourier Transform Coefficients
Authors: Skračić Kristian , Petrović Juraj , Pale Predrag
Published: July 2023

This paper presents an approach to improve the file fragment classification by proposing new features for classification and evaluating them on a dataset that includes both low- and high-entropy file fragments. High-entropy fragments, belonging to compressed and encrypted files, are particularly challenging to classify because they lack exploitable patterns. To address this challenge, the proposed feature vectors are constructed based on the byte frequency distribution (BFD) of file fragments, along with discrete Fourier transform coefficients and several randomness measures. These feature vectors are tested using three machine learning models: Support vector machines (SVMs), artificial neural networks (ANNs), and random forests (RFs). The proposed approach is evaluated on the govdocs1 dataset, which is freely available and widely used in this field, to enable reproducibility and fair comparison with other published research. The results show that the proposed approach outperforms existing methods and achieves better classification accuracy for both low- and high-entropy file fragments.
Immediate Proximal Row Carpectomy for Severe Perilunate Dislocation Injuries: A Minimum 5-Year Follow-Up
Authors: TOMCZAK Sacha , ABELLAN LOPEZ Maxime , JALOUX Charlotte , LEGRE Regis , BERTRAND Baptiste , DE VILLENEUVE BARGEMON Jean-Baptiste
Published: July 2023

Background: In patients with perilunate injuries (PLI) with multiple ligamentous and bony injuries involving the proximal carpal row, open reduction and internal fixation (ORIF) can be difficult and lead to poor functional outcomes. Proximal row carpectomy (PRC) is an alternative procedure that has been used for severely comminuted fractures. The aim of our study is to evaluate the long-term functional outcome (minimum 5 years) of patients that underwent an emergency PRC for PLI.

Methods: We conducted a retrospective study of patients who underwent PRC at our centre between 2001 and 2016. Only patients with follow-up data of more than 5 years were included in the study. We evaluated range of motion, grip strength, Mayo Modified Wrist Score (MMWS) and Quick Disabilities of Arm, Shoulder and Hand (Quick-DASH). Radiographic analyses were performed to assess the presence of radiocarpal osteoarthritis and the space between the radius and capitate.

Results: Thirteen patients were included, with an average follow-up of 78.07 months (6.5 years). The MMWS was 65 points (four excellent and good, four fair and five poor results) and the Quick-DASH score was 30 points. X-ray analysis reported only 15.3% of patients with radiocarpal arthrosis and an average radio-capitate joint space of 1.92 mm.

Conclusions: The outcomes of PRC in the management of PLI are comparable to the results reported in literature for conventional ORIF. PRC is a simpler procedure that minimises the need for re-intervention.

Level of Evidence: Level IV (Therapeutic)
Ralstonia solanacearum: An Arsenal of Virulence Strategies and Prospects for Resistance
Authors: Vailleau Fabienne , Genin Stéphane
Published: July 2023

The group of strains constituting the Ralstonia solanacearum species complex (RSSC) is a prominent model for the study of plant-pathogenic bacteria because of its impact on agriculture, owing to its wide host range, worldwide distribution, and long persistence in the environment. RSSC strains have led to numerous studies aimed at deciphering the molecular bases of virulence, and many biological functions and mechanisms have been described to contribute to host infection and pathogenesis. In this review, we put into perspective recent advances in our understanding of virulence in RSSC strains, both in terms of the inventory of functions that participate in this process and their evolutionary dynamics. We also present the different strategies that have been developed to combat these pathogenic strains through biological control, antimicrobial agents, plant genetics, or microbiota engineering.
Downregulation of VRK1 Inhibits Progression of Lung Squamous Cell Carcinoma through DNA Damage
Authors: Du Ning , Zhang Boxiang , Zhang Yunfeng
Published: July 2023

Background. Lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) is a common malignancy. And the antitumor effect of bovine pox virus-associated kinase 1 (VRK1) is becoming a hot research topic. Methods. VRK1 expression and prognosis in LUSC were analyzed using the GEPIA database. The expression of VRK1 mRNA was detected in 25 LUSC clinical tissue samples by RT-PCR. VRK1 shRNA was transfected into LUSC NCI-H520 and SK-MES-1 cell lines to interfere with VRK1 expression, and the efficiency of VRK1 shRNA interference was detected by the western blot. The effects of VRK1 downregulation on LUSC cell viability, migration, cell cycle, and apoptosis were analyzed by the CCK8 assay, scratch assay, transwell assay, and flow cytometry. The effect of VRK1 downregulation on DNA damage response (DDR) was examined by immunofluorescence staining and western blot assays and further validated by in vivo experiments. Results. VRK1 was highly expressed in both LUSC tissues and cells. Survival analysis showed that the overall survival of LUSC patients with high VRK1 expression was significantly lower than that of LUSC patients with low VRK1 expression (

P
=
0.0026

). The expression level of the VRK1 gene was significantly higher in cancer tissues of LUSC patients than in paracancerous tissues. After transfection of VRK1 shRNA in both LUSC cells, cell activity decreased (

P
<
0.001

), migration ability started to be inhibited (

P
<
0.001

), the ratio of G0/G1 phase cells increased (

P
<
0.001

), and apoptosis rate increased (

P
<
0.001

). Immunofluorescence and western blot results showed that shVRK1 increased the level of γ-H2A.X (

P
<
0.001

) and promoted apoptosis of tumor cells (

P
<
0.001

). In addition, the results of animal experiments showed that shVRK1 had antitumor effects (

P
<
0.001

) and a combined effect with DOX (

P
<
0.001

). Conclusion. The downregulation of VRK1 significantly affected the proliferation, apoptosis, migration, and cell cycle progression of LUSC cells via DDR, suggesting that VRK1 is a suitable target for potential LUSC therapy.
Unfortunate Fall: Ethiopianism and Theodicy in Early Nineteenth-Century African American Thought
Authors: Andersen Nicholas P.
Published: July 2023

Many scholars of African American and Africana religions have argued that Ethiopianism provided a fertile vocabulary for making sense of Black suffering. Linking Ethiopianism especially to the prophetic genre of theodicy, this article contends that it also provided a narrative framework within which nineteenth-century African Americans imagined and enacted novel forms of race-making and peoplehood. To this end, it offers readings of theodicy in the work of David Walker and Maria Stewart. In different ways, their uses of theodicy called into existence a global African community, whose boundaries exceeded the temporal and geographical parameters of the US and the Americas and whose agency was invested with God-given significance, such that, if exercised properly, Africans could work to redeem themselves from the horrors of the modern/colonial world.
Can Machine Learning Models Be a Suitable Tool for Predicting Central European Cold Winter Weather on Subseasonal to Seasonal Time Scales?
Authors: Kiefer Selina M. , Lerch Sebastian , Ludwig Patrick , Pinto Joaquim G.
Published: July 2023

Skillful weather prediction on subseasonal to seasonal time scales is crucial for many socioeconomic ventures. But forecasting, especially extremes, on these time scales is very challenging because the information from initial conditions is gradually lost. Therefore, data-driven methods are discussed as an alternative to numerical weather prediction models. Here, quantile regression forests (QRFs) and random forest classifiers (RFCs) are used for probabilistic forecasting of central European mean wintertime 2-m temperatures and cold wave days at lead times of 14, 21, and 28 days. ERA5 reanalysis meteorological predictors are used as input data for the machine learning models. For the winters of 2000/01–2019/20, the predictions are compared with a climatological ensemble obtained from E-OBS observational data. The evaluation is performed as full distribution predictions for continuous values using the continuous ranked probability skill score and as binary categorical forecasts using the Brier skill score. We find skill at lead times up to 28 days in the 20-winter mean and for individual winters. Case studies show that all used machine learning models are able to learn patterns in the data beyond climatology. A more detailed analysis using Shapley additive explanations suggests that both random forest (RF)-based models are able to learn physically known relationships in the data. This underlines that RF-based data-driven models can be a suitable tool for forecasting central European mean wintertime 2-m temperatures and the occurrence of cold wave days.

Significance Statement

Because of the chaotic nature of weather, it is very complicated to make predictions with traditional numerical methods 2–4 weeks in advance. Therefore, we use alternative, interpretable methods that “learn” to find statistically relevant patterns in meteorological data that can be used for forecasting central European mean surface wintertime temperatures and cold wave days. These methods are part of the so-called machine learning methods that do not rely on the traditional numerical equations anymore. We test our methods for 20 winters between 2000/01 and 2019/20 against a static weather prediction consisting of the past 30 winters. For single winters and in a mean over the 20 predicted winters, we find improved predictions up to 4 weeks in advance.
Hurricane Vulnerability and Constrained Choices among Mobile Home Park Residents in South Florida
Authors: Casanova Felicia , Prasad Shivangi , Bermudez Garolera Daniela , Riopelle Cameron , Stoler Justin
Published: July 2023

South Florida experiences some of the highest coastal hurricane vulnerability in the United States. Mobile home communities in south Florida are particularly vulnerable to hurricanes due to the weaker structural integrity of the home or land and a mix of structural and sociodemographic factors. A mixed-methods study was conducted to assess hurricane risk perceptions, experiences, and decision-making among permanent mobile home park (MHP) residents in Broward and Miami-Dade Counties. Return-by-mail surveys were distributed in July 2016 after several years of nominal hurricane activity in south Florida (and before Hurricane Matthew’s formation in September 2016), and focus groups were conducted at MHPs in May 2018, eight months after Hurricane Irma’s September 2017 landfall. Quantitative analysis of 44 in-person and 57 return-by-mail survey responses revealed that respondents tended to be older, retired, or unemployed and had modest levels of education, with many expressing forms of social- and structural-level hurricane risk before Hurricane Matthew. Qualitative analysis of six focus group discussions conducted after Hurricane Irma revealed that the constraints and vulnerabilities experienced by residents coalesced into several primary themes related to preparation, evacuation, assistance, stress and anxiety, tree concerns, and recovery. Participants specifically highlighted their concerns about tree hazards, damages, and maintenance issues arising before, during, and after hurricanes in MHPs. These results build on the scholarship on hurricane risk by underscoring the structural and social vulnerability of residents living in MHPs that constrain building resilience, adaptive capacity, community restoration efforts, and advocating for policy changes.

Significance Statement

This study aims to understand local hurricane risk perceptions, experiences, and vulnerabilities among residents of mobile home parks after a decade-long hurricane drought in south Florida and also to understand the barriers residents faced after a major hurricane. A hurricane drought is critical to study because it can erode individual and community-level preparedness. Residents of mobile home parks may experience more flooding, higher winds, tornadoes, and other dangers during hurricanes. Residents also face county-, neighborhood-, and household-level structural vulnerabilities that restrict their options related to hurricane preparedness, safety during a storm, and resilience in its aftermath. Our study uses various forms of data collection to obtain insights from permanent residents of mobile home parks in south Florida. In addition, it discusses the social and economic disadvantages and opportunities that policy makers can address in climate change risk management.
Chest X-Ray Remains a Vital Component Prior to Tube Thoracostomy
Authors: Moore Cody , Wilson Brandon , Oury Jeffrey , Denne Nicolas , Quedado Kimberly , Fang Wei , Bardes James M.
Published: July 2023

Introduction

The identification and treatment of traumatic pneumothorax (PTX) has long been a focus of bedside imaging in the trauma patient. While the emergence of bedside ultrasound (BUS) provides an opportunity for earlier detection, the need for tube thoracostomy (TT) based on bedside imaging, including BUS and supine AP chest X-ray (CXR) is less established in the medical literature.

Methods

Retrospective data from 2017 to 2020 were collected of all adult trauma activations at a level 1 rural trauma facility. Every adult patient included in this study received a CXR and BUS (eFast) upon arrival. The need for TT was determined by the emergency medicine attending or the trauma surgery attending evaluating the patient. McNemar’s chi-squared test and conditional logistic regression analysis were performed comparing BUS, CXR, and the combination of BUS and CXR findings for the need for TT. Subgroup analyses were performed comparing BUS, CXR, and the combination of BUS and CXR for the detection of PTX compared to CT scan.

Results

Of the 12,244 patients who underwent trauma activation during this timeframe, 602 were included in the study. 74.9% were males with an age range of 36-63 years. Of the 602 patients, 210 received TT. Positive PTX was recorded with BUS in 128 (21%) patients with 16 false negatives (FNs) and 98 false positives (FPs), 100 (17%) PTX were identified with CXR with 114 FNs and 4 FPs, and 72 (11.9%) were noted on both CXR and BUS with 140 FNs and 2 FPs. The odds ratio of TT placement was 22 times with positive BUS alone ( P < .0001, 95% CI: 10.9-43.47), 47 times with positive CXR alone ( P < .0001, 95% CI: 16.99-127.5), and 70 times with both positive CXR and BUS ( P < .0001, 95% CI: 17.08-288.4).

Conclusion

A positive finding of PTX on BUS combined with CXR is more indicative of the need for TT in the trauma patient when compared with BUS or CXR alone.
Angrezi shariat: Islamic law in 20th- and 21st- century Britain and its colonial antecedents
Authors: Greer Ian Richard Sanders
Published: July 2023

An increasingly formalized parallel Islamic legal system has emerged in England over the past few decades, brought about by the migration of mainly South Asian Muslims to the country. Especially in matters of personal law, many of Britain’s Muslims prefer the arbitration of community courts governed according to the Islamic legal tradition, rather than official common law. In response, the English judiciary has been recently integrating these community sharia courts into its own system to gain some influence over this parallel legal structure. The cooperation and co-optation of an Islamic legal system by common law today bears a notable similarity to a similar development in British-ruled India, where Islamic law was preserved by colonial authorities for Muslim subjects yet molded by the requirements of the common law system and integrated within it.
Reducing the Costs of Automation Failure by Providing Voluntary Automation Checking Tools
Authors: Bowden Vanessa , Long Dale , Loft Shayne
Published: July 2023

Objective

We investigated the extent to which a voluntary-use range and bearing line (RBL) tool improves return-to-manual performance when supervising high-degree conflict detection automation in simulated air traffic control.

Background

High-degree automation typically benefits routine performance and reduces workload, but can degrade return-to-manual performance if automation fails. We reasoned that providing a voluntary checking tool (RBL) would support automation failure detection, but also that automation induced complacency could extend to nonoptimal use of such tools.

Method

Participants were assigned to one of three conditions, where conflict detection was either performed: manually, with RBLs available to use (Manual + RBL), automatically with RBLs (Auto + RBL), or automatically without RBLs (Auto). Voluntary-use RBLs allowed participants to reliably check aircraft conflict status. Automation failed once.

Results

RBLs improved automation failure detection – with participants intervening faster and making fewer false alarms when provided RBLs compared to not (Auto + RBL vs Auto). However, a cost of high-degree automation remained, with participants slower to intervene to the automation failure than to an identical manual conflict event (Auto + RBL vs Manual + RBL). There was no difference in RBL engagement time between Auto + RBL and Manual + RBL conditions, suggesting participants noticed the conflict event at the same time.

Conclusions

The cost of automation may have arisen from participants’ reconciling which information to trust: the automation (which indicated no conflict and had been perfectly reliable prior to failing) or the RBL (which indicated a conflict).

Applications

Providing a mechanism for checking the validity of high-degree automation may facilitate human supervision of automation.
Spatial Cost of Living and Welfare Indices for India with Application to Policies Implementation
Authors: Kumar Saurav , Barai Parama
Published: July 2023

In the present study, we evaluate spatial cost of living and welfare indices for various states of India based on linear as well as price-independent generalised logarithmic cost functions. We compare the values of the indices as well as examine their correlations and find that there is significant difference among them and, hence, are not substitutable. We implement cluster analysis on constructed indices to club states and Union territories of India. We find that such clusters are closely linked to their per capita output.

JEL Codes: C43, C50, R11, R12, D12, D63, D61, D65
The Economic Coercion Trilemma
Authors: Mangini Michael-David
Published: July 2023

States often use market access as a bargaining chip in international politics. A state that requires simultaneous compliance in multiple issue areas before granting market access maximizes incentives to comply but also makes them brittle – any targeted states that cannot comply in one issue area have no incentive to comply in any. More generally, programs of economic coercion can achieve at most two of the following three objectives: 1) secure a broad coalition of domestic political support, 2) the association of meaningful trade value with each policy issue, and 3) assurance that enforcing one political issue will not reduce the target’s incentives to comply with conditionality on others. Characteristics of the program’s domestic constituency, of the issues themselves, and of the international economy are key determinants of how the state prioritizes the three objectives. The trilemma explains the number and types of issues that can be linked to economic value.
Plasmin-Mediated Fibrinolysis in Periodontitis Pathogenesis
Authors: Silva L.M. , Divaris K. , Bugge T.H. , Moutsopoulos N.M.
Published: July 2023

The hemostatic and inflammatory systems work hand in hand to maintain homeostasis at mucosal barrier sites. Among the factors of the hemostatic system, fibrin is well recognized for its role in mucosal homeostasis, wound healing, and inflammation. Here, we present a basic overview of the fibrinolytic system, discuss fibrin as an innate immune regulator, and provide recent work uncovering the role of fibrin–neutrophil activation as a regulator of mucosal/periodontal homeostasis. We reason that the role of fibrin in periodontitis becomes most evident in individuals with the Mendelian genetic defect, congenital plasminogen (PLG) deficiency, who are predisposed to severe periodontitis in childhood due to a defect in fibrinolysis. Consistent with plasminogen deficiency being a risk factor for periodontitis, recent genomics studies uncover genetic polymorphisms in PLG, encoding plasminogen, being significantly associated with periodontal disease, and suggesting PLG variants as candidate risk indicators for common forms of periodontitis.
Neural Signals of Video Advertisement Liking: Insights into Psychological Processes and Their Temporal Dynamics
Authors: Chan Hang-Yee , Boksem Maarten A.S. , Venkatraman Vinod , Dietvorst Roeland C. , Scholz Christin , Vo Khoi , Falk Emily B. , Smidts Ale
Published: July 2023

What drives the liking of video advertisements? The authors analyzed neural signals during ad exposure from three functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data sets (113 participants from two countries watching 85 video ads) with automated meta-analytic decoding (Neurosynth). These brain-based measures of psychological processes—including perception and language (information processing), executive function and memory (cognitive functions), and social cognition and emotion (social-affective response)—predicted subsequent self-report ad liking, with emotion and memory being the earliest predictors after the first three seconds. Over the span of ad exposure, while the predictiveness of emotion peaked early and fell, that of social cognition had a peak-and-stable pattern, followed by a late peak of predictiveness in perception and executive function. At the aggregate level, neural signals—especially those associated with social-affective response—improved the prediction of out-of-sample ad liking compared with traditional anatomically based neuroimaging analysis and self-report liking. Finally, early-onset social-affective response predicted population ad liking in a behavioral replication. Overall, this study helps delineate the psychological mechanisms underlying ad processing and ad liking and proposes a novel neuroscience-based approach for generating psychological insights and improving out-of-sample predictions.
Evaluation of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Evaluation Fellowship Program
Authors: Freire Kimberley E. , Kuperminc Gabriel , Vo Linda , Kidder Daniel P. , Zorland Jennifer
Published: July 2023

Objective:

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC’s) Evaluation Fellowship Program is a 2-year fellowship that includes training, placement with a CDC program, and professional development funds. We evaluated whether the program contributed to CDC’s evaluation capacity, prepared fellows for evaluation work, and contributed to their career advancement during its first 10 years.

Methods:

We used a mixed-methods approach, including conducting an online survey and telephone interviews. External evaluators sent surveys to all 152 alumni and all 123 mentors who participated in the program from 2011 through 2020 (first 8 cohorts) and interviewed 9 mentors and 15 alumni.

Results:

A total of 110 alumni (72.4%) and 44 mentors (35.8%) completed surveys. Of 44 mentors, most agreed their fellow(s) contributed to their program’s overall evaluation capacity (90.9%) and its ability to do more evaluation (88.6%). Most (84.2%-88.1%) alumni agreed that the Evaluation Fellowship Program prepared them to apply the 6 skill sets that aligned with CDC’s Framework for Program Evaluation in Public Health. Support from the Fellowship office was significantly and positively correlated with performing evaluation tasks (β = 0.25; P = .004) and alumni obtaining their first job (β = 0.36; P < .001). Host program mentoring was significantly correlated with performing evaluation tasks (β = 0.27; P = .02) and alumni obtaining their first job (β = 0.34; P = .007).

Conclusion:

CDC’s Evaluation Fellowship Program has made progress toward building CDC’s evaluation capacity and preparing a public health workforce to use evaluation skills in various settings. A service-learning model that provides training and applied experiences could prepare a workforce to build evaluation capacity.
Public Health Interventions Guided by Houston’s Wastewater Surveillance Program During the COVID-19 Pandemic
Authors: Hopkins Loren , Ensor Katherine B. , Stadler Lauren , Johnson Catherine D. , Schneider Rebecca , Domakonda Kaavya , McCarthy James J. , Septimus Edward J. , Persse David , Williams Stephen L.
Published: July 2023

Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, wastewater surveillance has emerged as a powerful tool used by public health authorities to track SARS-CoV-2 infections in communities. In May 2020, the Houston Health Department began working with a coalition of municipal and academic partners to develop a wastewater monitoring and reporting system for the city of Houston, Texas. Data collected from the system are integrated with other COVID-19 surveillance data and communicated through different channels to local authorities and the general public. This information is used to shape policies and inform actions to mitigate and prevent the spread of COVID-19 at municipal, institutional, and individual levels. Based on the success of this monitoring and reporting system to drive public health protection efforts, the wastewater surveillance program is likely to become a standard part of the public health toolkit for responding to infectious diseases and, potentially, other disease-causing outbreaks.
Psychosocial factors predicting symptoms of depression and anxiety in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant recipients in Japan
Authors: Imamura Takashi , Sudo Takeshi , Orihashi Yasushi , Takahashi Yuki , Onishi Yuichi , Onizuka Makoto , Mikami Katsunaka , Ueda Yasunori , Yamamoto Kenji
Published: July 2023

Objective

We explored whether a patient’s psychosocial background before allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) could predict the occurrence of psychiatric symptoms during treatment and after hospital discharge.

Method

Logistic regression analysis was performed using INTERMED, a scale that comprehensively evaluates psychological factors such as psychiatric history, current mental status, and coping skills, and social factors such as social participation status, relationships with others, and living environment, which were used as independent variables. The Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale was used to measure depression, while the Profile of Mood States was used to measure anxiety and other symptoms. Both measures were used as dependent variables and were administered upon clean room admission, during clean room stay, at clean room discharge, and at 3, 6, and 12 months after hospital discharge.

Results

Participants included 70 patients (45 males and 25 females, mean age 53.3 ± 12.3 years). Thirty-eight patients participated in the program for the entire period, up to 12 months after hospital discharge. The total score on the Japanese version of the INTERMED and psychological factor scores assessed at baseline were significant predictors of depressed mood on discharge; however, there were no significant predictors of scores on the Profile of Mood States.

Conclusions

A comprehensive pretransplant evaluation of psychosocial background can help predict the appearance of psychiatric symptoms after allo-HSCT. In patients who are expected to develop psychiatric symptoms after allo-HSCT, it is important to consider early intervention by a specialist and close monitoring by a medical team.