bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Location Theory, Regional Growth Theory and Manufacturing in the Antebellum South and Midwest
Authors: Cohn Raymond L.
Published: March 2021

The location of industries is a subject which is treated both by location theory and by regional growth theory. Location theory attempts to explain how firms in a particular industry choose a production site. The exportbase theory of regional growth, on the other hand, is concerned with identifying those industries which produce products mainly for consumers external to the region. This “export base” set of industries is thought to determine the growth possibilities of the region, and is thus of interest to regional growth economists. The two approaches have sometimes been joined at places where the connection does not always hold. This paper investigates one assumed connection between the theories, that between industries which locate near their resources and industries which export their output. It is shown that this connection does not always hold by providing a general analysis of location for each theory. Further, the importance of this connection for United States antebellum manufacturing is discussed.
Energy Use Patterns and Regionalized Energy Use Coefficients for State and Local Governments
Authors: Liner Gaines H.
Published: March 2021

The use of energy by the various segments of society is taking on progressively increasing importance in natural resource planning. Although much emphasis is given to reducing wastes in the private sector, conservation measures necessarily apply to the public sector as well. Perhaps more emphasis should be given to reducing natural resource waste in the public sector to compensate for the absence of the “forces of the market place.” Hopefully, the following discussion will adequately identify the areas of intense energy use by state and local governments disaggregated to the state level. No attempt will be made, however, to suggest conservation measures needed to accomplish more equitable energy resource utilization. Although, such a study would be a logical continuation of this discussion.
Forecasting Waterborne Exports with Alternative Regional Economic Models: A Statistical Analysis Based on the Charleston Port
Authors: Pelzman Joseph
Published: March 2021

The objective of this paper is to evaluate both the accuracy and the applicability of different regional models to the problem faced by both port administrators and development boards. Namely, what will next years commodity export traffic out of a particular port be, given that information on port activity is limited to its share of the total market, its past growth and the expected growth of total U. S. waterborne exports. The regional models evaluated must therefore cope with the constraints imposed by the data limitation as well as lend themselves to meaningful interpretation by port administrators. The regional models tested in this paper meet both requirements. In general, these models assume that waterborne exports out of a given port are either a linear, exponential or share function of total U. S. waterborne exports or some spatial distribution of commodity exports across ports.
Regional Econometric Forecasting: Linkages to Labor Supply
Authors: Alper Neil O.
Published: March 2021

Regional labor markets provide an opportunity to examine an important supply characteristic of a regional economy. In most regional econometric models the labor market is primarily demand-oriented. It generally includes an employment sector where the employment relationships take the form of inverse production functions. A behavioral relationship for the regional unemployment rate is often a component of this sector, enabling the calculation, through an identity, of a regional labor force and the number of people unemployed. Direct consideration of supply characteristics of the labor market is either forgotten or included as an afterthought. The methods that other researchers have utilized in attempting to develop forecasts of labor supply are reviewed first. A detailed description of the components of the labor supply model as it has been incorporated into a regional econometric model of Tennessee follows.
Regional Wage Differentials and Industrial Wage Discrimination
Authors: Smith Marvin M.
Published: March 2021

This paper presents an alternative hypothesis which might provide some insight into the uneven pattern of changes across regions. This view centers on the magnitude of industry discrimination coefficients and the regional distribution of these industries coupled with the relative distribution of minorities (in this case black males) in the industries. Thus, it is postulated that these regional differences in part might be a reflection of some regions gaining or losing over time a larger share of industries with relatively large discrimination coefficients; while these industries, in turn, are employing an increasing number of minorities (i.e., black males).
Quarterly Models of Intercity Freight Demand
Authors: German H. Wade , Sianis Mary D.
Published: March 2021

This paper bridges two gaps relative to the transportation industry’s information needs. First, we have focused on the linkages between the aggregate level of economic activity and intercity freight demand. Second, we have utilized quarterly data to provide a more direct input into the short term decision-making process at the industry and firm level.
Forecasting Passenger Enplanements of a Municipal Airport: The Case of Mobile, Alabama
Authors: Chang Semoon
Published: March 2021

Whether an airport facility should be expanded or not depends upon two major factors: One relates to how fast enplaned passengers of the airport increase over time, and the other, to when the present airport capacity is judged no longer adequate to provide decent services to the increasing number of passengers. This paper deals with the first problem by presenting a forecasting model of enplaned passengers at the Mobile Municipal Airport, which in fact is a summary of our work involved in reconciling high forecasts made by a local consulting firm upon request from the city officials who advocate the expansion and low forecasts made by the airline companies serving Mobile which will have to pay for the expansion if one is agreed upon.
Modeling Sectoral Economic Activity at the SMSA Level: Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate
Authors: Dietrich J. Kimball
Published: March 2021

This paper presents an econometric model of finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE) sectoral economic activity and proves the feasibility and desirability of increased disaggregation and detail in modeling regional economic activity. Regional econometric forecasting models in the future will require substantial regional variation. The approach taken in this paper is to assume that the local industrial complexion, regional regulatory framework, and geographical endowments require special attention.
Regional Demand for Natural Gas by Electric Utilities
Authors: Uri Noel D.
Published: March 2021

There exists the possibility of interfuel substitution in the generation of electrical energy. The responsiveness of the demand for various fuels by electric utilities given this economic fact is investigated. Using regionally disaggregated data, the results indicate that the responsiveness of the demand for coal, oil, and natural gas by electric utilities to relative price changes is not significant. It is argued that fuel adjustment clauses are responsible for this observation. As expected, the demand for natural gas increases as the level of economic activity expands. Most interesting is the negative response of the demand for natural gas by electric utilities to changes in weather conditions. It is suggested that the reason for this observation is that electric utilities, based on current regulatory practices, are among the first to be curtailed should any supply shortfall occur, given prevailing market conditions.
On the Economics of Energy Allocation
Authors: Hackbart Merlin M. , Hultman Charles W. , Ramsey James R.
Published: March 2021

A difficulty in analyzing the impact of a fuel shortage on the state economy and establishing allocative procedures is the large amount of data which must be reduced to management proportions. One approach to this data management problem is the use of an input-output model. Such a model can be used to provide a substantial amount of information about the economic impacts, both direct and indirect, of a fuel shortage on a state economy. In this study, the impact of a petroleum shortage on state industrial output and employment are estimated using such a model.
The Adjustment of Spatial Price Indexes for Geographical Differences in Standards Of Consumption: An Application of the Hedonic Method
Authors: Bellante Don , Killion Ruth Ann
Published: March 2021

In the fall of each year since 1972, the State of Florida has compiled a price index for each of its 67 counties, called the Florida Price Level Index. The index is patterned after the Consumer Price Index, except that it compares prices in each county to the state-wide average at a specific point in time rather than comparing prices over time at a specific location. Thus a 1974 index value of 108.5 for Monroe County, for example, implies that consumer prices in that county were an average of 8.5% higher than the average price level for the state that year. Florida is at present the only state that constructs such an index, although a number of states are currently considering the construction of similar spatial indexes.
Spatial Price Indices: The Florida Experience
Authors: Cooper Gary D.
Published: March 2021

An important type of problem exists with price indices: the distributional impact of prices on public and private policy. Many programs funded by Federal and State legislatures call for spending over a wide geographical area. If funding formulas do not allow for differences in price level in the areas covered, low-price areas will benefit at the expense of high price areas. In an effort to overcome this problem in its educational funding program, the Florida Legislature authorized in 1972 the compilation of an index to indicate the relative price level in each of Florida’s 67 counties. This paper describes the Florida Price Level Index (FPLI), the spatial index developed to meet this need. Construction of the FPLI is an ongoing responsibility of the Florida Department of Administration, which has produced annual indices since 1972.
Estimating the Interregional Incidence of Regional Business Taxes
Authors: Gustely Richard D.
Published: March 2021

The desirability of integrating an analysis of the interregional incidence of the state and local government sector into regional models has long been recognized. From a public policy standpoint, the understanding of the extent of interstate shifting of state and local taxes is particularly important. With respect to state-local development policy, for example, it is necessary that decision makers be aware of the extent to which alternative taxes affect the level of output and employment with in the state. Similarly, any national policy (e.g., revenue sharing) aimed at alleviating the fiscal imbalance among states should consider the extent of interstate shifting of tax burdens.
Central Place Theory and Southern Urbanization
Authors: Weiher Kenneth
Published: March 2021

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate that the application of central place theory to the study of urbanization of the American South reveals significant information about the dynamic process of building an urban system in this highly agricultural region. It can be shown that the city system in the cotton-growing states at the turn of the century conformed to and can be analyzed in the context of the central place model. Indeed, the only clear way to explain the peculiarities in the rate and form of southern urbanization is to view the historical process as the evolution of a hierarchy of central places, the primary functions of which were to provide central services of the cotton-growing industry. Specifically, this paper (1) reports on the evidence of the development of a central place system in the South from 1880 to 1930, (2) argues that much of the southern urbanization experience is explainable through the application of the central place model, and (3) suggests inferentially that central place theoy can be a useful tool in the study of urban development in the region
An Analysis of Interregional Migration in Texas: 1965-1970
Authors: Morgan Celia
Published: March 2021

Even a cursory review reveals a burgeoning literature on the economic analysis of gross directional migration flows. The more recent research has concentrated on expanding and refining migration models which explain interstate migration over particular time periods. These models neglect two aspects of migration: (1) the gross directional flows between relatively small geographical areas and (2) the stability over time of the parameters derived from the models. While this study is directed toward the former, the determinants of migration between state economic areas in Texas, the results also suggest that parameters derived from the analysis of a given time period do not necessarily hold for other time periods.
Temporal Changes in Revealed Migration Preferences
Authors: Lloyd Robert E.
Published: March 2021

Do the migration flows indicate that the distribution of migrants from origin states to destination states has changed over time, i.e., has behavior in space changed over time? Have there been any changes in the relationships which migration behavior in space has with selected characteristics of states, i.e., population size and distance? Has spatial behavior, i.e., the rules used by migrants to evaluate spatial opportunities, changed over time?
Infraregional Commuting and Poverty: A Cross-Sectional Analysis of “The Regional Welfare Syndrome”
Authors: Greenfield Stuart J.
Published: March 2021

It is the purpose of this paper to provide an empirical evaluation of Berry’s hypothesis. Commuting, like migration, ideally should act as a regional equilibrating mechanism. If urban areas provide more and/or better paying employment opportunities, commuting should increase the well-being of hinterland residents. If this is so, factor (labor) market equilibrium between hinterland and urban center could be achieved through commuting rather than migration.
Industrial Structure and Regional Employment Growth
Authors: Akins M.T. , Buck T.W.
Published: March 2021

This paper makes explicit the theory of regional growth which underpins the whole structural approach to regional analysis. It then briefly reviews certain well-known difficulties involved with the most popular variation of this approach, namely shift-share analysis. Despite the wide recognition of these difficulties and the low-powered nature of the statistical tests performed on the technique’s ability, shift-share applications are extremey pervasive. The analysis of variance is proposed as an alternative to shift-share in order to expose the structural approach to extensive empirical testing which may lead ultimately to its justification or refutation
Toward a Regional Manpower Demand Model
Authors: Babcock Michael W.
Published: March 2021

Regional manpower agencies are not the only source of demand for regional manpower forecasts. Education planners also need regional manpower forecasts in order to anticipate enrollment adjustments and formulate appropriate curriculum changes. In addition to public policy needs, forecasts of regional manpower demand would also prove useful to individuals in formulating career choices and to individual firms in determining the feasibility of expansion plans. The model presented here is a regional manpower demand forecasting model. Most of the paper is devoted to alternative methods of specifying the model and the advantages and disadvantages associated with each of them. The paper concludes with a discussion bf the effect of regional manpower supply “feedback” effects on regional manpower demand forecasts.
A Computational Procedure for on Expanded Steiner-Weber Problem of Optimal Location
Authors: Mirakhor Abbas , Bennett Charles D.
Published: March 2021

The purpose of this note is to present a realistic approximation to the classical Steiner-Weber minimization problem for optimally locating a central facility by first constructing a continuous model employing population regions and second using a centroidal approach to aid in the solution of the regional location problem.
Intra-Island Industrial Incentives in Puerto Rico
Authors: Woodward Robert S.
Published: March 2021

Governmental concern with the problem of unequal or limited regional economic opportunities has generated considerable interest in the relative effects of alternative public policies on the regional distribution of industrial activity. With in the limited framework of seeking to equalize regional employment and income levels, it is important to know which policies, especially which industrial incentives, can be expected to have the greatest effect on the distribution of manufacturing activity.
External Input and Natural Resource Effects on Regional Comparative Advantage
Authors: Klaasen Thomas A.
Published: March 2021

The purpose of this paper is to more accurately specify the significance of external inputs and to strengthen the argument that natural resources play an important role in regional industry concentration. Given that external inputs do influence industry location (concentration), one would expect that not only would the degree of dependency on outside resources industries be important, but also that the location of these supplying industries might have an influence. In fact, because there is no “a priori” reason for regional industry concentration to be determined by dependency alone, location may be a more important factor. Thus, if supplying industries were predominantly located in the South, one would expect the producing industries to be more heavily concentrated in the South. In an effort to validate this, a series of rank correlations tests and regression analysis was undertaken.
The Journey to Work: A Cross-Sectional Analysis
Authors: Sirmans C.F.
Published: March 2021

The purpose of this paper is to analyze journey to work patterns utilizing cross-sectional data for the periods 1960 and 1970 for the Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the State of Georgia. Through such an analysis, a basis is provided for determining trends in the journey to work. If it is possible to observe trends, a basis would be provided for predicting the journey to work in future time periods. This dynamic aspect of commuting to work patterns is particularly significant for the formulation and application of public policies.
Data Limitations and Alternative Methodology in Estimating Regional Econometric Models
Authors: Ratajczak Donald
Published: March 2021

The trade-off between data construction and model modification varies with the economic system that is used to describe regional economic activity. Some data, such as gross regional product, may he necessary in nearly all specifications of regional economic systems, while other information, like personal consumption expenditures, may not be missed by some model builders. This paper will discuss the data that is available, a sampling of the various descriptions of regional economic systems that have been used in regional econometric models, and the apparent trade-offs that have been made.
Employment Projections Within a Shift-Share Framework
Authors: Miller Edward M.
Published: March 2021

There is a need for methods for forecasting employment (and hence population) which can be used with computer aid, to make projections for a large number of relatively small areas. The simplest models merely make extrapolations from the historical growth trends, but these cannot incorporate information about the changing nature of final demand or changes in the rate of technical progress in different industries. Regional input-output provides a very sophisticated method for handling the flow of materials between industries and regions but the lack of good empirically derived coefficients makes it very difficult to apply even for regions the size of states and renders it impractical when deahng with smaller areas. A shift-share approach would seem to be a suitable intermediate level of sophistication. It has a number of the advantages of the input-output approach. The model is propelled by projections of national employment growth in a number of different sectors. This makes it possible to incorporate and experiment with differing compositions of final demand. Technical progress can be incorporated in making the national employment projections.
Interregional Occupational Structures and Race Vis-A-Vis the Income Distribution
Authors: Rice G. Randolph
Published: March 2021

No study has focused singularly on the role of the occupational mix for purposes of predicting areal income distribution. Hence, one objective of this study is to predict the shape of interstate income distributions—specifically, the income distribution of families—via occupational mix, and thereby give explicit notice to this human capital dimension. A second objective of this study is to use the occupational model to offer some empirical evidence on interregional racial differences vis-a-vis the income distribution.
The Economic Impact of Water Quality Standards; A Case Study of the Steel Industry in Youngstown-Warren, Ohio
Authors: Revzan Lawrence
Published: March 2021

This paper assesses the economic impact of implementing water quality standards for the Mahoning River Valley on the Youngstown-Warren, Ohio, metropolitan area. The river has been assigned “stream quality criteria” that will prove very costly for the steel industry, the major source of pollution, to achieve. In addition, the use of economic base analysis indicates that the strict enforcement of the water quality standards will have a significant negative economic and fiscal impact on the entire region.
The Dynamics of Manufacturing Employment Location within the New Orleans Metropolitan Area
Authors: Saussy Gordon A.
Published: March 2021

The primary concern of this study is to enhance the understanding of the process of manufacturing employment location in the New Orleans Metropolitan Area from 1965 to 1969.
Estimating the Cost of the City Worker’s Family Budget: A Multiple Regression Approach
Authors: Hurd Richard W.
Published: March 2021

The cost of the City Worker’s Family Budget (CWFB), computed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for a number of large metropolitan areas, has proved to be a useful measure of intercity differences in the cost of living. The goal of this research is to develop an equation based on the BLS figures which can be used to estimate living costs for other cities in the U.S.
The Returns to Southern Miration: Comment
Authors: Iden George
Published: March 2021

This paper discusses Laber (1973).
Industrial Structure and Spatial Inputs and Outputs in the American Economy
Authors: Hale Carl W.
Published: March 2021

The purpose of this paper is to examine the connection between industrial linkages of the input-output (I-O) variety and the spatial relationships exhibited by the nations industrial structure. The existence of high backward or forward linkages of produced inputs and outputs for particular industries, or a block triangular input-output transactions table, indicates the presence of industrial complexes. However, this does not mean that the industrial complexes are associated with spatial concentration. In the course of examining these relationships an attempt will be made to discover whether declining transportation costs have reduced the importance of the “transportation location factor.” It is the hypothesis of this paper that spatial concentration is related to industrial structure.
Reducing Regional Income Differentials with Capital Transfers in the Self-Management Economy: Yugoslavia, 1947-1965
Authors: Mazek Warren F. , Hocevar Toussaint
Published: March 2021

Yugoslavia has become known as an “economic laboratory” with frequent and radical economic experimentation. In two decades, this socialist nation has moved from a centralized “command” economy to a decentralized economy with market orientation. Simultaneously the philosophy of worker self-management evolved, resulting in worker participation in the basic decisions of each enterprise. The new system which emerged is an extraordinary combination of socialism, worker’s management, and the marketplace. This experimentation makes Yugoslavia an important case study of regional development.
The Lending Policies of Banks in Nonmetropolitan Areas and the Implications for Local Economic Development: Comment
Authors: Dreese G. Richard
Published: March 2021

This paper is a comment on Kaatz and Tarpley (1973).
The Lending Policies of Banks in Nonmetropolitan Areas and the Implications for Local Economic Development: Comment
Authors: Britton Charles R.
Published: March 2021

This paper is a comment on Kaatz and Tarpley (1973).
Some Problems with Accessibility Standards: A Comparison of Household Preferences to Standards for Work, Shopping, and School Trips: Comment
Authors: Coleman Jeremy J.
Published: March 2021

This paper is a comment on Kaiser et al (1973).
Recreation: Economic Development Impact and Seasonality
Authors: Garbacz Christopher
Published: March 2021

While the impact of recreation on the economic base of poor counties may not be strong enough to overcome all problems, it should at least be explored, possibly as apartial solution. This is a step in planning to solve recreation and economic development problems for urban and rural areas. This paper surveys the economic development impact of recreation and leisure activities on a depressed two-county region of Arkansas.
Systematic Relationships between Industrial Linkages and the Agglomeration of Manufacturing Industries
Authors: Richter Charles
Published: March 2021

This study poses and tests four hypothesis pertaining to relationships between linkages and agglomeration. Cross-sectional employment data is used to test the hypothesis. The results show that strong linkages are more important locational forces than weak linkages. Supply and demand linkages are equally potent locational forces. Supply linkages, however, are more important in the early states of the production processes while demand linkages are more important later.
Evaluation of the 1965 Economic Development Legislation
Authors: Rainey Kenneth D. , Cotton Thomas A.
Published: March 2021

This paper provides a brief and subjective evaluation of two major economic development bills passed by Congress in 1965. The first is the Public Works and Econmic Development Act and the second is the Appalachian Regional Development Act.
Intra-Urban Migrant Lifelines: A Spatial View
Authors: Brown Lawrence A. , Holmes John
Published: March 2021

Changes in residential location wihtin the urban area play an important role in altering urban systems and urban spatial structure. In this paper, the main consideration is with directional biases in the sequence of residential movements of a household within a single urban area, termed intra-urban migrant lifelines. Attention is also given to the methodology by which directional biases may be examined.
State Exit Exams and Graduation Rates: A Hierarchical SLX Modelling Approach
Authors: Hall Joshua C. , Lacombe Donald J. , Pokharel Shree B.
Published: March 2021

The literature on high school exit exams has found both positive and negative effects of these high stake exams on high school graduation rates. To this point, the literature has not taken into account the embedded nature of school districts within state education systems. We employ a Bayesian Hierarchical SLX model to account for the hierarchical nature of education data in the United States. Our approach also allows us to account for spatial spillovers that influence graduation rates across districts and states. Using school district and state-level data for 45 states and 8194 school districts in the U.S. in 2015, we generally find no statistically significant effect of state exit exams on high school graduation rates. Random effect coefficients, however, point towards high school exit exams being negatively associated with graduation rates in a handful of states.
Economic Impacts from an On-Farm Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Event in Tennessee
Authors: Menard Jamey , Thompson Jada , English Burton C. , Hughes David , Griffith Andrew P. , Smith Aaron , Jensen Kimberly
Published: March 2021

In March of 2017, two outbreaks of avian influenza, one highly- and one low-pathogenic, were reported in Tennessee poultry breeding flocks. This study estimates the potential economic impacts of a larger hypothetical event, in particular, indicating the magnitude of effects for poultry producers, industry organizations, policymakers, and other industry stakeholders. The economic impacts are estimated both with and without reductions in forward-linked processing of broiler breeders and broiler operations with depopulation rates of 10 to 25 percent in a nine-county area in the south-central part of Tennessee. Estimated reductions in gross regional product ranged from $6.7 million to $16.8 million.
Spatial Analysis of an Education Program and Literacy in India
Authors: Jogani Chitra
Published: March 2021

This paper explores the inclusion of spatial dependency in measuring the impact of geographically targeted programs. Using an education program in India, which targeted educationally backward districts, I study the influence of the program on the change in the rural female literacy rate and the gender gap in the literacy rate. In the estimation of a non-spatial model, the residuals exhibit spatial dependency, and the data suggests the spatial error model or the spatial Durbin error model (SDEM) as the appropriate specification. According to the SDEM estimates, with a one percentage point increase in the educational backwardness of a district, there was a 0.08 percentage point increase in the rural female literacy rate and a 0.02 percentage point decrease in the gender gap in literacy rate. The results imply a small but insignificant influence of the program received by the neighboring districts on the change in rural female literacy rate of a district. Limited financial flexibility and the lack of incentive to engage in a competition is a possible explanation for the absence of strategic interaction between districts.
The Relationship between Economic Complexity and the Pattern of Foreign Direct Investment Flows among Mexican States
Authors: Gómez-Zaldívar Manuel , Llamosas-Rosas Irving , Gómez-Zaldívar Fernando
Published: March 2021

Identifying factors that explain the regional distribution patterns of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) flows into an economy is no simple task, since they depend on a range of factors. In the case of Mexico, previous studies have documented the role of diverse characteristics in attracting FDI to the country’s states. This study shows that economic complexity - a variable that indicates the productive capabilities or productive knowledge that exist in a given economy’s economic structure - can explain the distribution of FDI among Mexican states. Similar to previous studies, we document the spillover effects of economic complexity, i.e., we show how states surrounded by states with a high level of economic complexity tend to receive more FDI. Moreover, we document how FDI flows to manufacturing industries are positively correlated with their level of economic complexity. This result, to the best of our knowledge, has not been documented before in this literature.
The Overseas Demand for Tourism in the United States
Authors: Stronge William
Published: March 2021

Since World War II, there has been an annual exodus of US tourists to overseas countries. This paper presents an analysis of US exports of tourism to overseas residents.
An Analysis of Agricultural Research Spillovers
Authors: Garren Nathan M. , White Fred C.
Published: March 2021

Benefits resulting from publically provided agricultural research accrue not only to producers in the state in which the research is conducted but may also spillover to producers in other states. This type of spillover from agricultural research expenditures is a form of externality because it occurs outside the market. Although research on spillovers have been widely recognized, researchers have achieved only limited success in empirically measuring these spillovers. The objective of this paper is to empirically estimate agricultural research spillovers for major commodity groups.
Recent Nonfarm Employment Growth and the Black Popultaion in the Nonmetro South
Authors: Weisblat David , Hines Fred
Published: March 2021

During the 1950’s and the 1960’s, the nation’s nonmetropolitan areas experienced massive outmigration. Economic decline and distress were particularly acute in the nonmetropolitan counties of the South with large Black populations. The massive rural outmigration of Blacks that began in the 1930’s reached its peak in the 1960’s. This study attempts to explain the differences in employment growth among southern nonmetro counties having predominately White and predominately Black populations.
Accounting for Spatial Autocorrelation in the 2004 Presidential Popular Vote: A Reassessment of the Evidence
Authors: Burnett J. Wesley , Lacombe Donald J.
Published: March 2021

Ordinary least squares econometric approaches to estimating election vote outcomes potentially ignore spatial dependence (or autocorrelation) in the data that may affect estimates of voting behavior. The presence of spatial autocorrelation in the data can yield biased or inconsistent point estimates when ordinary least squares is used inappropriately. Therefore, this paper puts forward a spatial econometric model to estimate the vote outcomes in the 2004 presidential election. We contribute to the literature in two ways. One, we extend the voting behavior literature by considering newly developed spatial specification tests to determine the proper econometric model. The results of two different spatial specification tests suggest that a spatial Durbin model provides a better fit to the data. Two, we offer a richer interpretation of the spatial effects, which differ from standard

ordinary least squares estimates, of the county-level vote outcome for the 2004 presidential election.
A Multiregional Input-Output Analysis of Water Withdrawals in the Southeastern United States
Authors: Sheng Di , Owen Stephanie , Lambert Dayton M. , English Burton C. , Menard Robert J. , Hughes David W. , He-Lambert Lixia , Clark Christopher D.
Published: March 2021

The amount of water withdrawn to support economic activity in the southeastern United States is estimated using a multiregional Environmental Input-Output/Life Cycle Analysis model. Water multipliers are measured as gallons of water withdrawn to meet a one-dollar increase in a commodity’s final demand. The analysis finds that direct and indirect water withdrawal requirements embedded in the production of goods and services is heterogeneous across the study region. The utilities and crop production sectors exhibit

the largest water multipliers. For an increase in final demand for crop production, direct regional effects contribute more to water multipliers compared to contributions from inter-regional and intersectoral sources. Alternatively, regional and inter-sectoral multipliers contribute more to the composition of the utilities sectors’ water multipliers. The resulting water footprint could inform the design of water management policies for local, state, and regional institutions, including markets for water.
The Impacts of School Choice on Regional Economic Growth
Authors: King Kerry A.
Published: March 2021

School choice has recently become a common approach to address the problems facing education in the United States. Previous literature focuses predominately on the effects of school choice on student achievement levels. In this paper, I use county-level data to study the effects of school choice on regional economic growth. In particular, I use charter schools, vouchers, and open enrollment to measure the effects of school choice on population growth. The results indicate that charter schools have a positive influence on the growth of regions while vouchers and open enrollment exhibit no significant impacts during the time period estimated.
The Status of Evaluating Accuracy of Regional Forecasts
Authors: West Carol T.
Published: March 2021

Recent reviews of the regional growth and change literature conclude that the strand of research attempting to identify determinants of growth in general terms has been reasonably successful, but the strand attempting to provide public policy direction has been far less successful. A critical distinction between these two strands is that the former studies the past while the latter makes a forecast. One of the reasons we may not have been particularly effective in guiding public policy is that we haven’t addressed the question, “Is the accuracy of our regional forecasting record acceptable?” This paper reviews the literature on evaluating regional forecast accuracy, discusses the question of “When is a regional forecast ‘accurate’?” and outlines how accuracy analysis can be used to improve forecast precision. A concluding section suggests possible avenues for future research.
On the Determinants of Average Income Growth and Net Migration at the Municipal Level in Sweden
Authors: Lundberg Johan
Published: March 2021

The purpose of this paper is to study what factors determined the average income growth and net migration at the municipal level in Sweden during the 1980s. To do this, we allow for a broad set of possible determinants of the local growth pattern such as economic “opportunity” variables, local policy and national policy decisions (including local public investments), the political stability within the local council, and the local socio-economic structure. Our results suggest a negative correlation between the initial level of average income and the subsequent average income growth, which can be interpreted in terms of conditional convergence. We also find local government policy variables to be important determinants of net migration and average income growth.
Migration and the Tiebout-Tullock Hypothesis Revisited
Authors: Cebula Richard J.
Published: March 2021

This empirical study investigates the Tiebout-Tullock hypothesis as it might have applied to net domestic state in-migration rates over the period 1990 through 1999. It appears that the net state in-migration rate has been directly related to the ratio of the total state plus local government outlays per capita on public education in a state to that state’s total state plus local government tax burden per capita. Other variables included in the study, including the previous-period median single-family housing price inflation rate, a measure of previous-period growth in real income per capita, and quality-of-life variables reflecting violent crime rates and sunnier climates, also seem to be significant determinants of the net state in-migration rate. Thus, for the study period, it appears that the Tie bout-Tullock hypothesis played a significant role in determining internal migration patterns.
Asymmetric Knowledge Spillovers in a Model of Regional Innovation and Growth
Authors: Sedgley Norman
Published: March 2021

This paper formulates a theoretical model to investigate the determinants of the rate of innovation across economies that differ in important ways in industrial structure and face the possibility of asymmetric knowledge spillovers between industries. In particular, I wish to extend the model of expanding product variety in order to study the implications of a highly diversified sectoral composition across regional industrial bases on rates of economic innovation. A global knowledge spillover has long been recognized as a possible explanation for the absence of scale effects. What has not been appreciated is the unstable nature of the equilibrium associated with this explanation. The model can, therefore, be used to understand how, in a dynamic setting, certain regions, such as Silicon Valley or the high-tech corridor stretching along Route 28 from northern Massachusetts into southern New Hampshire, become centers of innovative activity while other regions’ industries fade in importance. These results suggest a strong role for regional economics in interpreting the results of new growth theory
Testing the Neoclassical Model of Regional Economic Growth: A Panel Data Approach across the Finnish Provinces, 1973-1996
Authors: Miiki-Arvela Petteri
Published: March 2021

This study assesses the degree to which the variation of regional growth rates in Finland during the period 1973-1996 is consistent with the neo-classical view of growth. Panel data on Finnish provinces are examined with several estimation techniques and the obtained results are tested for their sample and model sensitivity. A region’s investment rate, population growth rate, and the rate of technological progress are found to be reliable predictors of output per capita, but only when the growth model is augmented to include human and public capital accumulation, as well as initial conditions among regions. This suggests a need to examine the links between regional economic growth and the accumulation of new forms of capital more carefully.
Relative Efficiency in the Spatial Distribution of Physicians’ Services
Authors: Stone Glenda , Simmons Walter O.
Published: March 2021

This paper uses health status outputs with Data Envelopment Analysis to assess the relative efficiency of the use of physician labor inputs. The trends in physician population growth are examined to see if there is a link between physician population ratios and the health status of the communities they serve. Input efficiency scores are analyzed for Michigan counties with compar-able population densities over a 10-year period. Overall, approximately 47 percent of Michigan counties operated with relative input efficiency during the decade. In addition to assigning an efficiency rating, Data Envelopment Analysis also identifies the efficiency reference set. The efficiency reference set can be used to develop a composite unit that produces the same output level as the inefficient unit, employing the most efficient combination of inputs.
A Regional Analysis of the Earnings of Immigrants
Authors: Bellante Don , Kogut Carl A.
Published: March 2021

Data from the 1990 Census One Percent Public Use Microdata Sample are examined in order to determine the extent of regional differences in the earnings of immigrants relative to nonimmigrants of the same ethnic origin and relative to nonimmigrants of Western European origin. Earnings equations are separately estimated for eight regions as well as for the U.S. as a whole. Also, relative earnings ratios are separately estimated for each of six ethnic groups within each region. The regional earnings functions are found to be statistically significantly different from a function estimated for the U.S. as a whole.
Spatial Concentration in the U.S. Auto Supplier Industry
Authors: Klier Thomas H.
Published: March 2021

This paper investigates the spatial characteristics of auto supplier plant locations in the U.S. in light of the industry’s adoption of just-in-time manufacturing methods. The issue of agglomeration is investigated for 3,137 independent supplier plants that were in operation during 1997. The industry is found to be highly spatially concentrated, with Michigan, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee representing the preferred location choice of inde-pendent auto supplier plants. Within that region, however, domestic and Japanese suppliers concentrate in the northern and southern half, respectively. Each group tends to locate closer to assembly plants of the same nationality.
On the Effects of Local versus Central Government Financing of Local Services
Authors: Islam Muhammed N.
Published: March 2021

This paper provides some empirical support for pricing a part of local services on user basis. A model of fiscal responses to grants/user fees, based on a vote-maximizing approach, is tested on both time series and pooled data (1977-1991) for 39 upper-tier municipalities in Ontario, Canada. The exogeneity specification of grants is tested and the test results are taken into account in estimating the model. The results indicate that roughly 70 percent of the municipal governments would find it cheaper to finance local spending by grants than by local taxation. If the grant system is abolished, a majority of these governments would prefer to use some sort of user fees in financing local services. The study suggests that local public services can be provided at a substantially lower per-unit cost if some selected services are priced on user basis.
A Regional Study of Net Migration Rates of College Students
Authors: Hsing Yu , Mixon, Jr. Franklin G.
Published: March 2021

In this study, we examine the determinants of college student migration based on a sample of 50 states in 1992. Major findings show that the net migration rate of college students is negatively correlated with per capita personal income, tax burdens, and crime rates, but positively associated with the number of colleges and universities, expenditure per student, educational level of the population, and growth rate of employment. Past migration also significantly affects current migration. The unemployment rate and the wage rate in manufacturing are found to be insignificant.
The Role of Region-Specific Institutionalized Cultural Characteristics on Income Inequality in the American South: The Case of Georgia’s Plantation Belt
Authors: Levemier William B.
Published: March 2021

Numerous studies have attempted to determine which factors affect income inequality in a given region. These factors relate to the demographic, economic, educational, and labor force characteristics of the region. One factor that has largely been ignored in the previous literature, however, is the effect of long-established, region-specific institutionalized social and cultural characteristics. By estimating the effect of a county’ s location in Georgia’s Plantation Belt, a region whose historical and economic development differs substantially from the rest of the state, this paper addresses the role that these institutionalized cultural characteristics play in the determination of income inequality in the state of Georgia. The results indicate that while demographic, economic, educational, and labor force characteristics significantly affect income inequality in Georgia, income inequality is greatest in the Plantation Belt counties. In addition, the racial composition of a county has a much weaker effect on income inequality in Plantation Belt counties than in those counties located outside the Plantation Belt.
An Empirical Analysis of Determinants of Geographic Differentials in the Bank Closing Rate in the United States, 1989-1994, Using the Heteroskedastic-Tobit Model
Authors: Cebula Richard J. , Belton Willie J.
Published: March 2021

This study empirically examines determinants of geographic (interstate) differentials in the bank failure rate in the United States for the period 1989-1994. The study uses the Heteroskedastic-TOBIT estimation technique because 20 percent of the observations on the dependent variable are zeros and because of the need to correct for heteroskedasticity. The findings indicate that the interstate bank closing rate differential is affected by the cost of deposits, the savings and loan failure rate, the percentage of gross state product deriving from oil and natural gas extraction, the tangible capitaUasset ratio, and state regulations that restrict bank branching.