bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Quantifying Uncertainty for Complex Systems
Authors: Bailey Lucy , Poole Mike , Hall Oliver , Gray Lucia
Published: February 2023

The ability to quantify uncertainty effectively in complex systems is not only useful, but essential in order to make good decisions or predictions based on incomplete knowledge.  Conversely, failure to quantify uncertainty, and a reliance on making assumptions, prevents a proper understanding of the uncertain system, and leads to poor decision-making. In our work to implement a geological disposal facility (GDF) for higher-activity radioactive waste, we need to be very confident in our demonstration of safety of the facility over geological timescales (hundreds of thousands of years). There are inevitably large uncertainties about the evolution of a system over such timescales.  We have developed a strategy for managing and quantifying uncertainty which we believe is more generally applicable to complex systems with large uncertainties.  At the centre of the strategy are three concepts: a top-down, iterative approach to building a model of the ‘total system’; a probabilistic Bayesian mathematical treatment of uncertainty; and a carefully designed methodology for quantifying uncertainty in model parameters by expert judgement that mitigates cognitive biases which usually lead to over-confidence.Our total system model is a probabilistic model built using a top-down approach. It is run many times as a Monte-Carlo simulation, where in each realisation, parameter values are sampled from a probability density function representing the uncertainty. It is built with the performance measures of interest in mind, starting as simply as possible, then iteratively adding detail for those parts of the model where previous iterations have shown the performance measures to be most sensitive.  It sits well with a similar iterative approach to data gathering, the aim being developing understanding of what parts of the total system really matter. In our experience, to be both a tractable and effective strategy, it is essential that the level of detail and complexity in any quantitative analysis, is commensurate with the amount of uncertainty.  There needs to be a recognition that initial consideration of the system in too great a level of detail is futile when the uncertainty is large.  It is through iterative learning, understanding the sensitivities to the total system and refining our analysis and data gathering in areas of significance, that we can handle even complex uncertainty and develop a sound basis for confidence in decision making.We are now looking to explore new techniques to iterative learning that involve maximising the information that can be gained, even from initially sparse datasets, to aid in confident decision-making. 
Cosmic-ray neutron production and propagation inside snow packs characterized by multi-particle Monte Carlo simulations
Authors: Weimar Jannis , Schattan Paul , Gugerli Rebecca , Fersch Benjamin , Desilets Darin , Schrön Martin , Köhli Markus , Schmidt Ulrich
Published: February 2023

Cosmic-ray neutron sensors buried below a snow pack provide a passive and autonomous monitoring technique of snow water equivalent (SWE). The effective neutron flux is attenuated inside the snow volume resulting in an inverse relationship between neutron intensity and the water equivalent of the snow column above the sensor. Neutrons are moderated and absorbed within the snow. Simultaneously, highly energetic cosmic rays produce further neutrons via spallation and evaporation processes. A comprehensive assessment of the neutron flux therefore requires multi-particle simulations which involve all relevant incoming particle species and transient particles from cosmic-ray showers which play a crucial role in neutron production.In our study, we used the Monte Carlo toolkit MCNP6 and validated its high-energy evaporation and spallation models against a measured data set of a neutron intensity profile in water. Based on that we fitted analytical functions to a large variety of simulation setups that describe the neutron intensity as a function of SWE and the moisture content of the soil below the sensor. Moreover, single-particle tracking revealed that the radial footprint of the method does not exceed few meters for detectors below thick snow layers. In the case of shallow snow, however, the diffusive long-range neutron flux in the atmosphere may penetrate through the snow pack to the buried sensor and thereby increases the influence of distant objects. Since the diffusive flux is further sensitive to the atmospheric water content, we developed an air humidity correction tailored to snow-buried neutron detectors.In general, the study aims at a holistic understanding of neutron production and transport processes in snow and the adjacent soil and air volumes in order to improve SWE monitoring by buried cosmic-ray neutron sensors and compares the simulation results to field data.
“Seas & Oceans”:  An interactive, immersive science-art exhibition for communicating science and educating the public
Authors: Baker Noel
Published: February 2023

Science-inspired art has recently gained momentum as an effective communication tool for educating the public about scientific topics, benefiting from the intrinsic abilities of art to reach a broad audience, convey ideas in novel ways, and inspire on a deep, emotional level.  An upcoming science-art exhibition furthers this concept by offering an immersive, interactive experience to the public. Titled Seas & Oceans, the two-month event seeks to educate and inspire the public about the environment, climate change, sustainability, biodiversity, and related topics through a variety of activities:

1) an art exhibition containing artwork produced by collaborations between scientist and artist pairings,

2) scientific talks given to the public by scientists from a range of disciplines,

3) workshops for local schools and children’s organizations,

4) informal chats between scientists and the public through a “Science Café”, and

5) other interactive performances and activities.

Serving as the scientific coordinator of the event, I will present the strategies used to prepare the event, challenges faced in its organization, feedback from scientists and artists about their collaborations, and methods / performance indicators used to gauge its success in educating the public and energizing interest in the associated scientific topics.
Enabling simple access to a data lake both from HPC and Cloud using Kerchunk and Intake
Authors: Carval Thierry , Bodere Erwan , Meillon Julien , Woillez Mathiew , Le Roux Jean Francois , Magin Justus , Odaka Tina
Published: February 2023

We are experimenting with hybrid access from Cloud and HPC environments using the Pangeo platform to make use of a data lake in an HPC infrastructure “DATARMOR”.  DATARMOR is an HPC infrastructure hosting ODATIS services (https://www.odatis-ocean.fr) situated at “Pôle de Calcul et de Données pour la Mer” in IFREMER. Its parallel file system has a disk space dedicated for shared data, called “dataref”.  Users of DATARMOR can access these data, and some of those data are cataloged by sextant service (https://sextant.ifremer.fr/Ressources/Liste-des-catalogues-thematiques/Datarmor-Donnees-de-reference ) and is open and accessible from the internet, without duplicating the data. In the cloud environment, the ability to access files in a parallel manner is essential for improving the speed of calculations. The Zarr format (https://zarr.readthedocs.io) enables parallel access to data sets, as it consists of numerous chunked “object data” files and some “metadata” files. Although it enables multiple data access, it is simple to use since all the collections of data stored in a Zarr format are accessible through one access point.  For HPC centers, the numerous “object data” files create a lot of metadata on parallel file systems, slowing the data access time. Recent progress on development of Kerchunk (https://fsspec.github.io/kerchunk/), which recognize the chunks in a file (e.g. NetCDF / HDF5) as a Zarr chunk and its capability to recognize a series of files as one Zarr file, is solving these technical difficulties in our PANGEO use cases at DATARMOR. Thanks to Kerchunk and Intake (https://intake.readthedocs.io/) it is now possible to use different sets of data stored in DATARMOR in an efficient and simple manner.    We are further experimenting with this workflow using the same use cases on the PANGEO-EOSC cloud.   We make use of the same data stored at the data lake in DATARMOR, but based on Kerchunk and Intake catalog through ODATIS access, without duplicating the source data. In the presentation we will share our recent experiences from these experiments. 
Map viewer of the CLICES project: information analysis tool and educational activity
Authors: Peña Angulo Dhais , Trullenque-Blanco Victor , González-Hidalgo José Carlos , Beguería Santiago
Published: February 2023

CLICES project (CLImate of the last Century in Spain) has been focused on temperature and precipitation analyses in mainland Spain during 1916-2015 period. To do that, information from National Meteorological Agency archives have been combined with data rescued from Annual Books (1916-2015) and high resolution grid (10x10 km) have been calculated. A web page has been created during the CLICES project with information on its main results, including a Map viewer section to allow view and consult the distribution of weather stations over time in the mainland Spain. The Map viewer includes information related to weather stations locations for the monthly temperature and precipitation for the 1915-2015 period. In addition, the Map viewer shows auxiliary information that includes elevation (shading), communication routes, and administrative bounderies. One of the great utilities that the Map viewer is to know the history of the spatial distribution of the meteorological stations, which have been linked to the socioeconomic history of mainland Spain itself. For example, the initial stations were mostly located in the main cities (capitals of province) before 1920, and then during 30´to 60´ data were recorded in a dense network stations. Maximum spatial density was achieved around 70´s and then a global decline in the network is observed. All these aforementioned facts must be considered when spatial and temporal analyses of the main elements of climate were performed. Then Map viewer can be used as a useful tool in educational activities from a geographical point of view which allows students to explain certain natural phenomena at different spatial scales, and their relationships with different elements of space. To access the Map viewer of the CLICES project, you must visit the website www.CLICES.unizar.es. Up to date to 2020 is being under current development.
Internal gravity wave and tide interaction with geostrophic mean flow
Authors: Eden Carsten , Sebastia Saez Pablo , Chouksey Manita , Dennert Peter
Published: February 2023

Internal gravity waves (IGW) are ubiquitous in the open and coastal ocean. IGWs are refracted by their changing environment and may gain energy from or loose energy to the geostrophically balanced mean flow with vertical (wave drag) or horizontal shear (wave capture). Refraction, wave-wave interaction, or scattering at mean flow, topography, or turbulence can generate wave energy fluxes towards smaller wavelengths, where IGW break and mix density, which can drive in turn large scale mean flow. Two case studies of interaction of waves and mean-flow and their consequences for mixing are presented: Using a novel numerical model (IWEM) of the spectral energy balance of IGWs, we simulate the interaction of IGWs with an observed coherent meso-scale eddy in the coastal upwelling region off Mauretania. Using ray traycing we study the interaction of low mode IGWs at tidal frequencies (internal tides) with a geostrophic mean flow given by a realistic meso-scale eddy field.
Strength and anisotropy of hexagonal Fe-Si-C alloy in planetary cores
Authors: Kolesnikov Efim , Kupenko Ilya , Rohrbach Arno , Klemme Stephan , Berndt Jasper , Li Xiang , Müller Susanne , Liermann Hanns-Peter , Sanchez-Valle Carmen
Published: February 2023

The observed density of planetary cores is lower than in pure iron-nickel alloy at corresponding conditions. Therefore, the cores of terrestrial planets should be composed of iron-nickel alloyed with some lighter elements. These elements should be abundant in the solar system, siderophile, and compatible with iron at high-pressure high-temperature conditions. Si and C comply with these requirements and could be planetary core constituents. Seismic observations of the Earth's inner core revealed anisotropy of seismic wave propagation. For instance, compressional waves travel 1-3% faster along the polar axis compared to waves travelling in the equatorial plane. One of the hypotheses of the origin of the anisotropy is the plastic deformation and development of textures in inner-core materials under pressure. We employed Fe-Si-C alloy to study its yield strength and anisotropy at high-pressure high-temperature conditions to compare its properties with those observed in the Earth's core. The experiments were conducted by radial X-ray diffraction coupled with resistively heated diamond anvil cells that acted as a deformation apparatus. We performed experiments up to 120 GPa pressure with temperatures exceeding 1100 K. The strength values of Fe-Si-C alloy are higher than the strength of pure Fe and Fe-Si alloys. Our results show lower anisotropy of sound-wave velocities in hexagonal Fe-Si-C alloy compared to the seismic observations. We detected the change in main texture orientation upon compression from [0001] to  in Fe-Si-C alloy. In our presentation, we will discuss the dominant mechanisms of plastic deformation, responsible for these observations, and the overall effects of carbon and silicon on the strength and anisotropy of hexagonal iron alloys in planetary cores. 
Permafrost in the Cretaceous supergreenhouse
Authors: Rodríguez López Dr Juan Pedro , Wu Chihua , Vishnivetskaya Tatiana A. , Murton Julian B. , Tang Wenqiang , Ma Chao
Published: February 2023

During the archetypal supergreenhouse Cretaceous Earth, an active cryosphere with permafrost existed in Chinese plateau deserts (astrochonological age ca. 132.49–132.17 Ma). Permafrost wedges have been identified in three different outcrops of the Luohe Fm.  Most of the wedges are concentrated in two discrete horizons bounding three draa successions representing composite-wedge pseudomorphs. A late Pleistocene analogue for the Cretaceous aeolian–permafrost system of the Luohe Fm is provided by the composite wedges and sand wedges within aeolian dune deposits of the Kittigazuit Fm., Hadwen Island, NT, Canada. A modern analogue for these Cretaceous plateau cryospheric conditions is the aeolian–permafrost system we report from the Qiongkuai Lebashi Lake area, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. Significantly, Cretaceous plateau permafrost was coeval with marine cryospheric indicators in the Arctic and Australia, indicating a strong coupling of the ocean–atmosphere system. The Cretaceous permafrost contained a rich microbiome at subtropical palaeolatitude and 3–4 km palaeoaltitude, analogous to recent permafrost in the western Himalayas. Global permafrost thaw during the Cretaceous released significant volumes of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere as well as dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and other nutrients into watersheds, and marine waters affecting aquatic systems through carbon and nutrient additions. The contribution of permafrost thaw to the Cretaceous global C balance, including during oceanic anoxic events (OAE) will have to be determined in future research dealing with ocean–continental cryosphere coupling associated with events of cryosphere degradation in the aftermaths of supergreenhouse cold snaps. A mindset of persistent ice-free greenhouse conditions during the Cretaceous has stifled consideration of permafrost thaw as a contributor of C and nutrients to the palaeo-oceans and palaeo-atmosphere.
Towards continuous, evidence-based evolution of Copernicus Marine Service through open science practices : insights from the IMMERSE project.
Authors: Le Sommer Julien ,   IMMERSE project consortium
Published: February 2023

The Copernicus Marine Service relies in a very fundamental way on digital tools whose deployment and routine implementation allow the transformation of information from observation networks into products available to users. In practice, these digital tools are software whose development is partly carried out in the framework of interaction with the academic community. These software packages bring together and summarize our collective understanding of ocean and sea-ice dynamics,  observation networks and inversion techniques. The evolution of the Copernicus Marine Service therefore necessarily involves the evolution of these software tools. A significant part of our community devotes energy and time to improving these software and the processes enabling its deployment in operational systems. The development of these software tools is therefore a central question in the transition from research to operation within the Copernicus Marine Service. The NEMO modelling framework is an example of such scientific software on which the Copernicus Marine Service is based. This codebase is used as a tool to understand ocean and sea ice dynamics, to prepare observational networks, and to integrate information from observing systems into reanalysis and forecasts. In this it concentrates the work of a very large community on a very long time scale. Its evolution is in any case key for the evolution of the Copernicus Marine Service and its downstream applications. Over the last four years, the consortium of the IMMERSE project has accompanied the development of the NEMO code and the organization of the transition of this development within the Copernicus Marine production centers. The project activities have led to a significant improvement in the computational efficiency of the code, to a better representation of the key physical processes. It also allowed the exploration of development practices based more fundamentally on open science approaches. In this presentation we will propose a synthesis and a feedback on the contribution of these approaches to open science and on the stakes of the transition from research to operation in the framework of Copernicus Marine Service. We will recall the main results of the IMMERSE project and in particular the actions taken to accelerate this transition. We will also use the example of the collaborative data challenges deployed in the framework of altimetry data processing. We will try to paint an objective picture of the contribution of new collaborative work practices in the field.
On the correct definition and use of normal heights in geodesy
Authors: Novak Pavel , Sansò Fernando
Published: February 2023

Geodesy defines a physical height as the shortest distance of a point to a height reference surface in the Riemannian physical space. Two types of physical heights are most commonly used in science and applications, namely orthometric and normal heights. Both heights use the same reference surface (geoid) but differ in metrics associated with either the real (in case of orthometric heights) or model (for normal heights) gravity field. Orthometric heights correspond to the classical concept of physical heights introduced in the 19th century by Gauss, Stokes and Helmert. The main reason for introducing normal heights in the mid-20th century by Vignal and Molodensky, was related to a fact that the metric for orthometric heights (or corresponding gravity corrections to levelled height differences) could be estimated only approximately as they depend on the topographic mass density. Consequentially, normal heights have been introduced in many countries worldwide. However, their concept is sometimes misunderstood as the quasi-geoid is incorrectly referred to as their reference surface. Physical heights and corresponding height systems were discussed at the 10th Hotine-Marussi Symposium held in Milan, June 2022. A motion was proposed and discussed at the symposium that acknowledged reported problems of the quasi-geoid and its improper use as a height reference surface in geodesy. This presentation summarizes main arguments that were used to forge the motion. 
Water level forecasting of Reservoir downstream by machine learning
Authors: Chuang I-Hsiu , Lin Gwo-Fong , Chang Ming-Jui , Zeng Yuan-Fu
Published: February 2023

Taiwan is located in the subtropical monsoon region, both typhoons and vigorous convection caused by strong southwesterly flow develop seasonal compound disasters.In addition, the response time for early warning systems of the reservoirs and downstream riverbanks has been shortened due to higher frequency and greater intensity of short-duration rainfall events in recent years. Past studies pointed out that the current water level forecast does not consider the outflow discharge of the reservoir. Therefore, this study proposes a downstream water level forecasting model that considers the outflow discharge of the reservoir, and the model is provided to relevant hazard mitigation centers.This research has selected the water level of the Taipei bridge as target status and collected data of typhoon and storm events from 2014-2021. These data included the precipitation in the watershed of upstream of Taipei bridge, outflow discharge of Shimen reservoir, outflow discharge of Feitsui reservoir, and tidal of Tamsui river estuary as the alternative factors. Subsequently, building several models based on multiple machine learning, such as RNN, SVM, and LSTM to interface with the constant-quantity rainfall forecast of the Central Weather Bureau, then produce the forecast in the future 12 hours with Multi-Step Forecasting (MSF) about the water level of Taipei bridge. The result shows that SVM, RNN, LSTM forecast in the future 1 hour precisely, which statistical values of CC are more than 0.97, and root mean square errors of water level are around 0.2 m. As the forecast time is longer, the statistical values of CC decrease around 0.93 and root mean square errors of water level increase around 0.3 m.However, LSTM is able to learn dependencies between the time series and get more precise outcomes than the SVM and RNN, which is not outstanding initially then performs the best at the last. The proposed water level forecast is proved to improve the accuracy of the forecast in the future 12 hours about the water level of Taipei bridge. Moreover, by coordinating the Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) and warning water level, the model provides early warning of the future twelve-hour water level, which is not only beneficial to evacuation and operating traversing dock-gate and evacuation gates efficiently, but also conducive to reducing the risk of losses in life and property.Keywords: Water level, Quantitative Precipitation Forecast, Machine learning, Multi-Step Forecasting
The high-resolution paleoclimatic record of the western margin of Svalbard (Proposal IODP 985-Full2)
Authors: Lucchi Renata Giulia , Buenz Stefan , Plaza Faverola Andreia Aletia , Vadakkepuliyambatta Sunil , Knies Jochen , Rebesco Michele , St. John Kristen
Published: February 2023

High-resolution depositional archives were identified in the contourite drifts developed on the mid-upper slope of the western continental margin of Svalbard (Bellsund and Isfjorden drifts, Vestnesa and Svyatogor ridges) under the persistent effect of the West Spitsbergen Current (WSC). The sediment drifts contain very similar stratigraphic sequences characterised by depositional marker beds (Heinrich-like and meltwater related deposits) outlining a synchronous, almost simultaneous response of the Svalbard-Barents Sea paleo-ice sheet to changing climatic conditions. These observations strengthened the idea that the WSC, transporting warm Atlantic Waters to the Arctic ,was one of the major drivers of the Arctic climate variability and cryosphere evolution in the area.The considerations made above, inspired the writing of Proposal IODP 985-Full2 that was motivated by the necessity of retrieving continuous, high-resolution, and datable depositional sequences containing the record of the palaeoceanographic characteristics and cryosphere evolution during the past climatic transitions that followed the opening of the Fram Strait in the Arctic. Such data are greatly needed to better constrain global climate connections, forcing mechanisms and climate models. The general objective of 985-Full2 is the reconstruction of the variability of the WSC and its influence on climate changes particularly during key climate transitions (i.e. the late Miocene–Pliocene transition, late Pliocene–Pleistocene Transition, Mid-Pleistocene Transition, Mid-Brunhes Transition, and sub-orbital Heinrich-like events), its impact on the Arctic glaciations, ice shelves development and stability, and sea ice distribution over last 5.3 Ma.The proposal submitted in April 2020 was approved in May 2022 and scheduled as IODP Exp. 403 (June 4th to August 2nd, 2024).
Effects of deforestation events on atmospheric dynamics using Lagrangian reanalysis data
Authors: Bakels Lucie , Bucci Silvia , Stohl Andreas
Published: February 2023

Deforestation in the Amazon basin has the potential to affect regional atmospheric circulations, possibly causing changes in the moisture transport by altering the regional Hadley and Walker cells (Zhang et al.1996). Previous studies that modelled the atmosphere under different extreme deforestation scenarios have shown that deforestation in the Amazon basin could increase the length and frequency of dry seasons in the Southern Amazon, while an increase of rain is expected in the Northern Amazon (e.g. Espinoza et al., 2019; Ruiz-Vasquez et al., 2020). Beyond climate models, it is also possible to trace the effect of past deforestation on the atmosphere using a Lagrangian transport model applied on atmospheric reanalysis data. Using the FLEXPART global simulations on the ERA-5 ECMWF reanalysis dataset (1959-2022), we are able to track air parcels through time and space, making it possible to locate the origin of moisture and latent heat, and quantify how global atmospheric circulation is affected by air transport from deforested areas.
Evaluation of the geochemical impact of biomethane and natural gasmix injection in sandstone aquifer storage
Authors: Banc Camille , Sin Irina , de Windt Lau , Petit Anelia
Published: February 2023

EU is seeking to rapidly replace part of the natural gas usually stored in deep saline aquifersby its renewable analogue, i.e. biomethane. While natural gas is depleted in oxygen, up to10 000 ppm of O2 can be measured in biomethane. But to date, the geochemical impact ofthe injection of a gas mix containing natural gas (thus CH4 and CO2) and biomethane (thusoxygen) in deep saline aquifer has never been studied. The objective of this study is toevaluate the resilience of geological storage to oxygen injection and predict the evolutionof the quality of the formation water, the gas plume and the rock formation. To do so,multiple injection scenarios with various gas quality were tested using multiphase reactivetransport modeling. The gas mixtures were injected in two different deep saline aquifers inthe Paris Basin (France) whose petrophysical and geochemical characteristics werereproduced during the simulation. Site 1 was a felspathic sandstone with clay cement andsite 2 was a sandstone with clay-calcareous cement.One dimensional radial flow model evidenced that in both sandstones, the injection of gasmix induced an acidification of the solution from pH~8 to pH~6. The injected oxygenoriginating from biomethane was quickly consumed during pyrite oxidation andcontributed to the acidification of the formation water close to the injection point. However,the injection of 1% mol fraction of CO2(g) contained in the gas mix was the main acidificationfactor. Model demonstrated that the sandstones pH buffering capacity relied upon threegeochemical processes (i) calcite dissolution, (ii) feldspar dissolution and (iii) claysdissolution and sorption capacity. These three pH-buffers were efficient for oxygen contentsfrom 10 to 1000 ppm. Models predicted that the gas mix injection could induce minimal butlong-term change in the nature of mineral phases but without significantly impacting theporosity. Overall, the gas quality was preserved in both sandstones. This result wasevidenced with the modeling of entire gas injection and withdrawal scenario. CO2(g)exsolution, and to a lesser extent H2S(g) exsolution, could occur during these cycles. Inaddition, this study through modeling results concluded that the injection of biomethanedid not significantly change gas-water-rocks interactions compared to those of natural gasinjection. This study also evidenced that the detailed results were largely site-dependent.
Benthic microbial community structure and ecological functions along the salinity gradient in the East Siberian Sea
Authors: Lee Yung Mi , Park Yerin , Lee Dong-Hun , Tripathi Binu Mani , Kim Ji-Hoon , Choi Yeonjin , Hwang Chung Yeon , Jin Young Keun , Hong Jong Kuk
Published: February 2023

The rising temperature in the Arctic changes marine environments such as sea ice fluctuation, primary production, and riverine input and these changes, in turn, impact on benthic ecosystems. East Siberian Sea (ESS) represents shallow shelf seas with three to seven times higher river discharge than other seas of Russian Arctic. However, studies on the microbial composition and functions according to the environmental parameters have not been performed in the ESS. In this study, the benthic microbial community structure with the environmental parameters and their ecological functions were investigated. Bacterial community was dominated by the phyla Proteobacteia (51.1±6.6%) followed by Bacteroidetes (16.4±9.5%), Planctomycetes (8.9±3.8%), Acidobacteria (6.5±4.2%), Actinobacteria (2.6±2.0%). In the archaeal community, Thaumarchaeota (70.9±11.1%) and Euryarchaeota (27.7±11.4%) were predominant. There are some microbial taxa showing significant changing pattern along the latitude. The proportion of Alphaproteobacteria and Acidobacteria increased while that of Bacteroidetes and Deltaproteobacteria and Thaumarchaeota decreased along the latitude. Microbial community composition and function of major taxa were clearly differentiated according to the latitude and concurrent environmental parameters such as salinity and concentration of ammonium and sulfate. In addition, the function of major microbial taxa including ammonium oxidation and sulfate reduction inferred from 16S rRNA identity also changed across the salinity gradient. These results imply that environmental changes in the benthic ecosystems accelerated from the climate change may impact a significant change on benthic microbial community composition and their functions.
Optimization of Soil Texture and Hydraulic Parameters Using the Soil Moisture Observation in Land Surface Model
Authors: Lim Sujeong , Cassardo Claudio , Park Seon Ki
Published: February 2023

Soil moisture is a key variable in the hydrologic cycle and affecting to weather and climate, thus accurate soil moisture prediction is necessary in the land surface modeling. In this study, we use UTOPIA (University of Torino land surface Process model for Interaction in the Atmosphere) that is a one-dimensional land surface model representing the interactions at the interface between atmospheric surface, vegetation and soil layers. Soil texture estimated by percentages of clay, silt, and sand is the dominant factor to predict soil moisture. However, it is hard to measure the accurate soil information due to insufficient and uncertain observation. Therefore, we have implemented the micro-genetic algorithm (micro-GA) within UTOPIA to optimize the percentages of clay, silt, and sand estimating the soil texture and hydraulic parameters by evaluating the soil moisture performance against in-situ observation. As a global optimization algorithm, the micro-GA evolves to the best potential solution based on the natural selection or survival of the fittest. Compared to the control experiments using a soil database or in situ observation, optimization results show that the optimal soil texture and hydraulic parameters lead to an improvement in soil moisture prediction.
Decoupling the poromechanics of particle remobilization and interface stiffness of dynamically stressed tensile fractured rock
Authors: Wood Clay , Ke Chun-Yu , Rivière Jacques , Elsworth Derek , Marone Chris , Shokouhi Parisa
Published: February 2023

Understanding the poromechanical response of fractured rock is necessary for applications ranging from hydraulic stimulation of the subsurface to teleseismic impulses from earthquakes that may reactivate faults or otherwise breach reservoir seals. We describe laboratory experiments that seek to decouple the role of fracture interface stiffness and fracture infill (sediment transport) in the hydraulic and elastodyamic properties of fractured rock. Experiments are conducted on multiple samples of Westerly granite with different uniform roughness (silicon carbide grit-roughened or milled) that were loaded under triaxial stresses in a pressure vessel while permeability evolution is measured from the flow-through of deionized water. In some experiments, thin layers of synthetic wear (gouge) material are added to the fracture interface to simulate mature, sheared, fractures whose poromechanical response is dominated by clogging and unclogging of pore throats. Oscillations of pore pressure and normal stress are applied at amplitudes ranging from 0.2 to 1 MPa at 1Hz. The experiments also consider the influence of fracture aperture with effective stress perturbations applied at normal stresses ranging from 5 to 20 MPa (reducing aperture with increasing effective normal stress). Before, during, and after the dynamic stressing, an array of piezoelectric transducers (PZTs) continuously transmits and receives ultrasonic pulses across the fracture to monitor the evolution of fracture stiffness and fluid transport due to the dynamic stressing. These allow evaluation of stress-induced changes in transmitted ultrasonic wave velocity and amplitude to estimate the contact acoustic nonlinearity of the fracture interface concurrent with permeability evolution. We compare the results for samples with and without synthetic wear (gouge) material to understand the role and evolution of fracture stiffness and clogging-unclogging mechanisms in pore throats of porous and fractured media.
The TEC-GNSS analysis of the paroxysmal eruptive activity of Mt.Etna
Authors: Ferrara Federico , Bonforte Alessandro , Ravanelli Michela , Cannata Andrea
Published: February 2023

The ionosphere is a region of the upper atmosphere (50-1000 km a.s.l.) characterized by free electrons and ions produced mainly by solar radiations (UV, X) and subordinately by cosmic radiations (RAVANELLI, 2021). It’s a very sensitive plasma to energy variations, mostly the F2 layer (240-400 km a.s.l.) that is a region of maximum ionization with an electron density of 10 6 e - /cm 3 . For this reason, the ionosphere (in particular the F region) can be seen as a field of remote sensing monitoring from which to extrapolate various informations by the natural systems that make up our planet.About this, solid Earth (e.g. litoshpere, internal structure) and fluid Earth (e.g. idrosphere, atmosphere) are two open systems that exchange energy continuously. It means that big dynamic processes (e.g. plate tectonics, genesis of magmas) can release amounts of energy, in the form of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and correlate phenomena (e.g. tsunami), capable to perturb the earth’s matter at every aggregation state and up to planetay scale with propagation of gravity-acoustic waves. In this field, the ionospheric volcanology is a targered discipline for the study of the effects that great volcanic eruptions (VEI > 3-4) cause to Total Electron Content (TEC) in the ionosphere (F2 level) through propagation of internal gravity waves (0.1 – 2 mHz) and acoustic waves (2 – 10 mHz). The study of the TEC’s variations caused by strong geodynamic events represents a new approach with which to contribute to implementation of the monitoring and research systems in order to mitigate the volcanic and seismic risks.The method consists to extrapolate the temporal variations of TEC during the volcanic activity period by RINEX and navigational data GNSS registered by RING (Rete Integrata Nazionale GNSS) and local GPS networks. By the way, others outputs can be derived from TEC series such as spectrograms and hodocrones in order to better understand the evolution of the electron activity in ionosphere excited by the volcanic eruption. This study method is applied for some paroxysmal eruptive activities of Mt.Etna analyzing and comparing the volcanological data with TEC outputs. The latter have been processed with VARION (Variometric Approach for Real-time Ionosphere Observation) algorithm, designed within the Geodesy and Geomatics Division of Sapienza University of Rome in 2015. VARION is based on single time differences of geometry-free combination of GNSS carrier-phase measurements, using a standalone GNSS receiver and standard GNSS broadcast products (orbits and clocks correction) that are available in real time. One of the goals to be pursued in the Research is to comprehend the differences between eruptive mechanisms capable to generate gravity waves rather acoustic waves, and how such mechanisms may depend by physical-geometric features of the plumbing system of the volcano and by chemical-physical features of the magma and its amount of gas.
Exploration of flood lead-times through river level monitoring: A case study from the Vilcanota river in Cusco, Peru
Authors: Arestegui Miguel , Lavado Waldo , Cisneros Abel , Madueño Giorgio , Almeida Cinthia , Millán Carlos , Bazo Juan , Anicama Jahir
Published: February 2023

Floods impact recurrently vulnerable populations in the Andean region. Anticipatory action approaches and mechanisms propose ways to reduce these impacts by acting ahead based on forecasting and monitoring systems. However, how much ahead in time can we take action with enough confidence? This is not a trivial question given the challenges of historical hydrometeorological records in the whole andean region. In this context, technological tools and approaches based on free and open source electronics have allowed new possibilities for hydrological monitoring instrumentation. By increasing the coverage in the Vilcanota river in Cusco, Peru, we can make empirical explorations and analytical estimates of riverine flood lead-times as well as historical flood maps. As a result, developments of early action mechanisms and early warning systems can be appropriate to what is feasible in such a context and similar ones.
Cut-cell Eta ensemble skill vs. ECMWF: Lessons learned
Authors: Mesinger Fedor , Veljovic Katarina , Chou Sin Chan , Gomes Jorge L. , Lyra André A. , Jovic Dušan
Published: February 2023

An experiment reported in Mesinger and Veljovic (JMSJ 2020) showed anadvantage of the Eta over its driver ECMWF ensemble members in placing 250 hPa jetstream winds during a period of an upper tropospheric trough crossing the Rockies. Abyproduct of that experiment was that of the Eta ensemble switched to use sigma,Eta/sigma, also achieving 250 hPa wind speed scores better than their driver members,although to a lesser extent. Nevertheless, it follows that the Eta must include feature orfeatures additional to the eta coordinate responsible for this advantage over theECMWF.An experiment we have done strongly suggests that the van Leer type verticaladvection of the Eta, implemented in 2007, is a significant contributor to this advantage.In this experiment, having replaced a centered finite-difference Lorenz-Arakawa schemethis finite-volume scheme enabled a successful simulation of an intense downslopewindstorm in the lee of the Andes.While apparently a widespread opinion is that it is a disadvantage of terrainintersecting coordinates that “vertical resolution in the boundary layer becomes reducedat mountain tops as model grids are typically vertically stretched at higher altitudes,” avery comprehensive 2006 NCEP parallel test gave just the opposite result. Withseemingly equal ABL schemes, the Eta showed a higher surface layer accuracy overhigh topography than the NMM, using a hybrid terrain-following system (Mesinger, BLM2022).Hundreds of thousands of the Eta forecasts and experiments performeddemonstrate that the relaxation lateral boundary conditions almost universally used inregional climate modeling (RCM)–in addition to conflicting with the properties of thebasic equations used–are unnecessary. Similarly, frequently applied in RCMs so-calledlarge scale or spectral nudging, being based on an ill-founded belief, should only bedetrimental if possible numerical issues of the limited area model used are addressed.Note that this is confirmed by the results we refer to above.
An Investigation of Meteor Properties using Machine Learning and Deep Learning
Authors: Windisch Andreas , Mandl Lucas , Christou Apostolos
Published: February 2023

In this work we conduct a thorough examination of utilizing machine learning and computer vision techniques for classifying meteors based on their characteristics. The focus of the research is the analysis of light curves emitted by meteors as they pass through the Earth's atmosphere, including aspects such as luminosity, duration, and shape. Through extracting features from these light curves and comparing them to established meteors orbits, valuable information about the meteor’s origin and chemical makeup is sought to be obtained. A significant contribution of the thesis is the development of methods for classifying meteors by extracting features from the light curve shape through the usage of unsupervised classification algorithms. This approach allows for the automatic classification of meteors into various groups based on their properties, obviating the need for manual annotation. Data for the research is collected by a three-camera setup at the Armagh observatory, comprising one medium-angle camera and two wide-angle cameras. This setup enables the capturing of detailed images of meteor light curves, as well as various other observations such as coordinate and angular data. The research also involves the use of machine learning algorithms for data reduction and classification tasks. By applying these techniques to the data collected from the camera setup, the identification of parent objects based on chemical composition and meteor path is facilitated, along with the acquisition of other valuable information about the meteors. In summary, the findings of the research should demonstrate the potential of utilizing machine learning and computer vision methods in the study of meteors entering the Earth's atmosphere. The results contribute to a more profound understanding of the properties and origins of meteors and hold the potential to inform future research in this field.
Fault Based Tsunami Generation and Hazard Analysis: A Probabilistic Study for Aegean Coasts of Türkiye
Authors: Dogan Gozde Guney , Yalciner Ahmet Cevdet , Ozacar Arda , Gulerce Zeynep , Tufekci-Enginar Duygu , Lutfi Suzen Mehmet , Kanun Onur , Pekcan Onur , Yucemen Semih
Published: February 2023

The coasts of Türkiye are vulnerable to tsunami hazards due to the intensive use of coastal areas and the activity of faults in the surrounding seas. The Samos-İzmir earthquake occurred on October 30, 2020, followed by a tsunami that affected the Sığacık Bay revealed this fact once again, demonstrating the importance of accurately modeling the tsunami hazard across the country. Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) results for various coastal engineering parameters (i.e., tsunami wave height, tsunami inundation distance) constitute one of the essential inputs of performance-based tsunami risk analysis. The TSUMAPS-NEAM project that ended in 2018 was one of the studies following the probabilistic approach for the Northeast Atlantic, Mediterranean, and connected seas (Basili et al. 2021). The primary objective of this study which is constructed within the TUBITAK (Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey) funded 121M750 project, is to develop a comprehensive probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis framework in which the uncertainties regarding active faults that can generate tsunamis for our country's Aegean Sea coasts are addressed fully. For this purpose, a holistic seismotectonic database has been created by compiling catalogs of active faults that can generate tsunamis in the Aegean Sea and its surroundings, important fault parameters, earthquake and focal mechanism solutions from national and international sources. The compiled database is utilized to determine possible tsunami source scenarios and model the epistemic and aleatory uncertainties in these scenarios. In this regard, a complete probabilistic set of tsunami source scenarios that have not been included in previous studies is being developed, and the near-shore tsunami wave height estimations will be determined by performing high-resolution tsunami simulations for each scenario. Considering the lack of hazard-based tsunami assessment for the coasts of the Aegean Sea, the near-shore tsunami wave height hazard curves to be obtained as a result of the project are of great importance in determining the effects of possible tsunamis and assessing the tsunami risk.Acknowledgement: This study is supported by TUBITAK 1001-Grant Project No: 121M750.
Determination of carbon stocks in arable land: errors, improvement of the one-layer equivalent soil mass method and associated minimum detectable change
Authors: Boivin Pascal , Lemaître Téo
Published: February 2023

Reliable determination of the soil organic carbon stock (SOCS) and its time trend at field scale is a key condition to value soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration as a negative emission technology (NET) at farm level. Limiting the stock estimation to 30 cm depth is acceptable on the range of some decades (Balesdent et al., 2018). The carbon stock, however, is not directly estimated from the SOC content. SOC content must be multiplied by the bulk density (BD) of the corresponding layer. BD determination is time consuming and tedious to determine, and changes with time due to soil swelling with water, soil tillage, and changes in SOC. Therefore, the changes in SOCS must be monitored on an equivalent soil mass (ESM) basis, by referring to the sampled soil mass of the previous sampling rather than to a constant depth layer. Corrections of the mass, simplification of the soil mass determination overcoming the BD determination issue, as well as a simplified one-layer method have been proposed (Wendt and Hauser, 2013). However, this simplified ESM method requires the sampling and analysis of at least two layers for sampled mass correction. Moreover, the field volume percentage of the coarse (> 2 mm) fraction must be determined and removed from the sampled layer volume, which is not well documented. On the other hand, and to our best knowledge, private companies providing SOCS certificates sample the soils at constant depth using mechanical gauges that do not allow to control the quality of the extracted core. Finally, the errors associated with these different technical options needs to be clarified.This study was performed using samples collected in 60 fields from different farms of the Swiss Leman-Lake region. It aimed at providing a full reliable methodology to determine SOCS at field scale, while solving the remaining issues, namely to determine the errors associated to the different parameters estimated and to simplify the ESM one-layer method to decrease the sampling and analytical costs. The minimum detectable change was determine (i) for sampling performed using the mechanical gauges at constant depth, (ii) for the ESM one-layer method as described in (Wendt and Hauser, 2013), (iii) the additional error introduced by coarse fraction estimation and gauge diameter and (iv) a simplification of the one-layer ESM method taking into account local average properties of the soil below the 0-30 cm sampled layer.