bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Clustering model responses in the frequency space for improved flood risk analysis
Authors: Sikorska-Senoner Anna E.
Published: March 2021

Hydrologic models are employed in the flood risk studies to simulate time series of model responses to given inputs. These simulated time series of pseudo-observations can be next statistically analysed and in this way they can extend existing observed records. Simulations of hydrologic models are however associated with modelling uncertainty, often represented through a simulation ensemble with multiple parameter sets. The need of using multiple parameter sets to represent uncertainty is linked however with increased computational costs that may become prohibitive for long-time series and many input scenarios to be analysed. Due to the non-linear input-output relationship in the hydrologic model, a pre-selection of parameter sets is challenging.

This work presents a clustering approach as a tool to learn about the model hydrologic responses in the flood frequency space from the training dataset. Based on this learning process, representative parameter sets are selected that can be directly used in other model applications to derive prediction intervals at much lower computational costs. The study is supported with sensitivity analysis to the number of clusters. Based on results from a small catchment in Switzerland and 10’000 years of streamflow pseudo-observations, it has been found that grouping the full simulation ensemble with 1000 members into 3 to 10 clusters is already suitable to derive commonly applied prediction intervals (90%, 95% or 98%) in the flood frequency space. The proposed clustering approach can be applied in any flood risk analysis to lower the computational costs linked with the use of a hydrologic model.
Fabric beats in radar data across the NEGIS ice stream
Authors: Eisen Olaf , Franke Steven , Jansen Daniela , Paden John , Drews Reinhard , Ershadi Mohammad Reza , Steinhage Daniel , Lilien David , Yan Jie , Weikusat Ilka , Wilhelms Frank , Dahl-Jensen Dorthe , Grindsted Aslak , Hvidberg Christine , Miller Heinrich
Published: March 2021

Crystal anisotropy of ice causes slight birefringence for electromagnetic waves. At the same time, the mechanical anisotropy amounts to several orders of magnitude, thus making fabric properties highly-relevant for internal deformation. To date, bulk anisotropy of glaciers and ice sheets can be determined by geophysical methods, such as polarimetric radar, or direct sampling from ice cores. A shortcoming has been so far that changes of bulk anisotropy could mainly be inferred at single point observations, but less so as continuous profiles. Here, we exploit the effect of birefringence caused by bulk anisotropy in co-polarized airborne radar data to determine the horizontal anisotropy across the North-East Greenland Ice Stream. We base our analysis on the fact that birefringence causes a second-order effect on radar amplitudes, which leads to a beat frequency in the low and medium frequency range (O(100 kHz)), which is proportional to the horizontal anisotropy. Complementing our radar analysis with direct fabric and dielectric property observations we can constrain the range of all three fabric eigenvalues as a function of space across and along the ice stream. Finally, we assess the effect of the inferred fabric distribution on the overall ice rheology in the context of ice stream dynamics. Our overall approach has the advantage that it can be applied to co-polarized radar systems, as commonly used in profiling surveys, and does not require dedicated cross-polarized radar set-up. This provides the opportunity to revisit older data, especially from Greenland and Antarctica, to map fabric anisotropy in ice-dynamically interesting regions.
Improved VLBI scheduling through evolutionary strategies
Authors: Schartner Matthias , Plötz Christian , Soja Benedikt
Published: March 2021

Since mid-2020, various Very Long Baseline Interferometry (VLBI) observation programs organized by the International VLBI Service for Geodesy and Astrometry (IVS) are scheduled using a new algorithm inspired by evolutionary processes based on selection, crossover and mutation. It mimics the biological concept "survival of the fittest" to iteratively explore the scheduling parameter space looking for the best solution.

In this work, we will present the general workflow of the algorithm as well as discuss its strengths and potential weaknesses. Moreover, we will highlight how the improved scheduling affects the precision of geodetic parameters. In the case of difficult-to-schedule OHG sessions, an improvement in the precision of the geodetic parameters of up to 15% could be identified based on Monte-Carlo simulations, as well as an increase in the number of observations of up to 10% compared to classical scheduling approaches.
Introducing the “VALOR” analysis framework for auroral field-aligned current sheets using observations from Swarm Alpha and Charlie
Authors: Pick Leonie , Vogt Joachim , Blagau Adrian , Stachlys Nele
Published: March 2021

The investigation of auroral field-aligned current (FAC) sheets is crucial in the context of space weather research since they serve as main transmitters of energy and momentum across geospace domains. Different magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling modes are reflected by the FACs’ multiscale nature with spatial scales, i.e., latitudinal extensions, ranging from below 1 km to hundreds of kilometers. The multiscale property can be addressed conveniently using ESA’s three-spacecraft mission Swarm. According to common practice a linear correlation analysis is performed on lagged and band-pass filtered scalar FAC density estimates from two nearby spacecraft.

We introduce the framework VALOR (Vectorial Association of Linearly Oriented Residua) which generalizes the common approach in two ways. First, VALOR utilizes the full magnetic field vector primarily observed at both spacecraft without filtering. Second, VALOR allows to test statistical association measures other than linear correlation in dependence of both time and along-track spacecraft lag. The method is further refined by considering the current sheet’s polarization, i.e., the directional preference of the associated magnetic field perturbation, which additionally constrains the sheet’s orientation.

Here, we apply VALOR to 1 Hz magnetic field observations from Swarm Alpha and Charlie and base the association measure on a vectorial version of the mean squared deviation. By means of a sample auroral oval crossing event we demonstrate that the incorporation of vectorial and polarization information helps to focus the association measure in the time-lag parameter plane leading to a smaller FAC spatial scale estimate. This result seems to hold in a statistical context including over 9000 quasi-perpendicular auroral oval crossings from 2014 to 2020. The fact that the VALOR derived FAC locations reflect the known ellipsoidal shapes of the auroral ovals speaks to the overall plausibility of the method as well as the independently supported finding that large-scale FACs (>300 km) dominate the dawn and dusk sectors while smaller scale FACs gain importance at noon and midnight. Among the various opportunities for future work are an application to 50 Hz high-resolution Swarm data as well as the investigation of the solar controlling parameters.
Environmental radioactivity in the Atlantic marine boundary layer from the SAIL monitoring campaign  
Authors: Barbosa Susana , Amaral Guiherme , Almeida Carlos , Dias Nuno , Ferreira António , Camilo Mauricio , Silva Eduardo
Published: March 2021

Ambient radioactivity reflects a wide range of physical processes, including atmospheric and geological processes, as well as space weather and solar conditions. Gamma radiation near the Earth’s surface comes from diverse sources, including space (cosmic radiation), the earth’s atmosphere, and solid earth. In addition to the terrestrial gamma radiation originating from the radioactive decay of primordial radionuclides present in every soil and rock, gamma radiation is also continuously produced in the atmosphere from the interaction of secondary cosmic rays and upper-atmosphere gases, as well as from the decay of airborne radon (Rn-222) progeny. Therefore the temporal variability of gamma radiation contains information on a wide range of physical processes and space-earth interactions, but disentangling the different contributions remains a challenging endeavor. Continuous monitoring of gamma radiation at sea enables to remove both the terrestrial and radon exhalation contributions, allowing to examine in detail the space and atmospheric sources of ambient gamma radiation.

Gamma radiation over the Atlantic Ocean was measured on board the ship-rigged sailing ship NRP Sagres in the framework of the SAIL (Space-Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions in the marine boundary Layer) project. The measurements were performed continuously (every 1-second) with a NaI(Tl) scintillator counting all the gamma rays from 475 keV to 3 MeV. The casing of the instrument was adapted in order to endure the harsh oceanic conditions and installed in the mizzen mast of the ship. The counts were linked to a rigorous temporal reference frame and precise positioning through GNSS.

Here preliminary results based on the gamma radiation measurements performed from January 5th to May 9th 2020 are presented, corresponding to the journey of the ship from Lisboa to Cabo Verde, Rio de Janeiro, Montevideu, Cape Town, and back to Lisboa. The data exhibit a clear transition from the coastal to the marine environment, enabling to study in detail the temporal variation of gamma radiation in the marine boundary layer, as well as the interface between land and marine conditions in terms of environmental radioactivity.
A statistical-dynamical approach to improve subseasonal precipitation forecasts: application to the southwest tropical Pacific
Authors: Specq Damien , Batté Lauriane
Published: March 2021

Although there is an increasing interest in precipitation information at the subseasonal timescales in a wide range of sectors, the use of subseasonal precipitation forecasts from general circulation models is often impaired by poor reliability and low forecast skill. One crucial step to improve forecast quality is statistical correction and post-processing, which is particularly important for a parameterized variable like rainfall. This study introduces and evaluates a statistical-dynamical post-processing scheme, based on a Bayesian framework, that aims at providing more skillful and more reliable subseasonal forecasts of weekly precipitation. On the one hand, this method relies on the statistical relationship between observed and dynamically-forecast precipitation, that is determined in a set of reforecasts and depends on the lead time. On the other hand, it also takes advantage of the climatological impacts of large-scale drivers affecting rainfall, that are generally better represented by numerical models than rainfall itself. These two aspects of the method are respectively called calibration and bridging.

This statistical-dynamical prediction scheme is illustrated with an application to the austral summer precipitation in the southwest tropical Pacific, using the Météo-France and ECMWF reforecasts in the Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) database. Indices representing El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Madden-Julian Oscillation – the major sources of predictability in the area – are used for bridging. Probabilistic forecasts of heavy rainfall spells are evaluated in terms of discrimination (ROC skill score) and reliability, which are both improved by the Bayesian method at all lead times (from week 1 to week 4). Additional results show that the calibration part of the method, using forecast precipitation as a predictor, is necessary to enhance forecast skill. The bridging part also provides additional discrimination skill, that is mostly due to the ENSO-related information.
Salt marsh resilience to sea-level rise and increased storm intensity
Authors: Pannozzo Natascia , Leonardi Nicoletta , Carnacina Iacopo , Smedley Rachel
Published: March 2021

Salt marshes are widely recognised as ecosystems with high economic and environmental value. However, it is still unclear how salt marshes will respond to the combined impact of future sea-level rise and possible increases in storm intensity (Schuerch et al. 2013). This study investigates marsh resilience under the combined impact of various storm surge and sea-level scenarios by using a sediment budget approach. The current paradigm is that a positive sediment budget supports the accretion of salt marshes and, therefore, its survival, while a negative sediment budget causes marsh degradation (Ganju et al. 2015). The Ribble Estuary, North-West England, was used as test case, and the hydrodynamic model Delft3D was used to simulate the response of the salt marsh system to the above scenarios. We conclude that the resilience of salt marshes and estuarine systems is enhanced under the effect of storm surges, as they promote flood dominance and trigger a net import of sediment.  Conversely, sea-level rise threatens marsh stability, by promoting ebb dominance and triggering a net export of sediment. Ultimately, when storm surge and sea-level scenarios are combined, results show that storms with the highest intensities have the potential to counteract the negative impact of sea-level rise by masking its effects on the sediment budget.

Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the support of the School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool.

References

Ganju, N.K., Kirwan, M.L., Dickhudt, P.J., Guntenspergen, G.R., Cahoon, D.R. and Kroeger, K.D. 2015. “Sediment transport-based metrics of wetland stability”. Geophysical Research Letters, 42(19), 7992-8000.

Schuerch, M., Vafeidis, A., Slawig, T. and Temmerman, S. 2013. “Modeling the influence of changing storm patterns on the ability of a salt marsh to keep pace with sea level rise”. Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface, 118(1), 84-96.
The wave geometry of final stratospheric warming events
Authors: H. Butler Amy , I.V. Domeisen Daniela
Published: March 2021

Every spring, the stratospheric polar vortex transitions from its westerly wintertime state to its easterly summertime state due to seasonal changes in incoming solar radiation, an event known as the "final stratospheric warming" (FSW). While FSWs tend to be less abrupt than reversals of the boreal polar vortex in midwinter, known as sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, their timing and characteristics can be significantly modulated by atmospheric planetary-scale waves. Just like SSWs, FSWs have been found to have predictable surface impacts. While SSWs are commonly classified according to their wave geometry, either by how the vortex evolves (whether the vortex displaces off the pole or splits into two vortices) or by the dominant wavenumber of the vortex just prior to the SSW (wave-1 versus wave-2), little is known about the wave geometry of FSW events. We here show that FSW events for both hemispheres in most cases exhibit a clear wave geometry. Most FSWs can be classified into wave-1 or wave-2 events, but wave-3 also plays a significant role in both hemispheres. Additionally, we find that in the Northern Hemisphere, wave-2 events are more likely to occur later in the spring, while in the Southern Hemisphere, wave-1 or wave-2 events show no clear preference in timing. The FSW enhances total column ozone over the pole of both hemispheres during spring, but the spatial distribution of ozone anomalies can be influenced by the wave geometry and the timing of the event. We also describe the stratosphere's downward influence on surface weather following wave-1 and wave-2 FSW events. Significant differences between the tropospheric response to wave-1 and wave-2 FSW events occur over North America and over the Southern Ocean, while no significant differences are found over the North Atlantic region, Europe, and Antarctica. 
Parameterization dependence of the hydrological cycle in a general circulation model of intermediate complexity
Authors: Mehling Oliver , Ziegler Elisa , Andres Heather , Werner Martin , Rehfeld Kira
Published: March 2021

The global hydrological cycle is of crucial importance for life on Earth. Hence, it is a focus of both future climate projections and paleoclimate modeling. The latter typically requires long integrations or large ensembles of simulations, and therefore models of reduced complexity are needed to reduce the computational cost. Here, we study the hydrological cycle of the the Planet Simulator (PlaSim) [1], a general circulation model (GCM) of intermediate complexity, which includes evaporation, precipitation, soil hydrology, and river advection.

Using published parameter configurations for T21 resolution [2, 3], PlaSim strongly underestimates precipitation in the mid-latitudes as well as global atmospheric water compared to ERA5 reanalysis data [4]. However, the tuning of PlaSim has been limited to optimizing atmospheric temperatures and net radiative fluxes so far [3].

Here, we present a different approach by tuning the model’s atmospheric energy balance and water budget simultaneously. We argue for the use of the globally averaged mean absolute error (MAE) for 2 m temperature, net radiation, and evaporation in the objective function. To select relevant model parameters, especially with respect to radiation and the hydrological cycle, we perform a sensitivity analysis and evaluate the feature importance using a Random Forest regressor. An optimal set of parameters is obtained via Bayesian optimization.

Using the optimized set of parameters, the mean absolute error of temperature and cloud cover is reduced on most model levels, and mid-latitude precipitation patterns are improved. In addition to annual zonal-mean patterns, we examine the agreement with the seasonal cycle and discuss regions in which the bias remains considerable, such as the monsoon region over the Pacific.

We discuss the robustness of this tuning with regards to resolution (T21, T31, and T42), and compare the atmosphere-only results to simulations with a mixed-layer ocean. Finally, we provide an outlook on the applicability of our parametrization to climate states other than present-day conditions.

[1] K. Fraedrich et al., Meteorol. Z. 14, 299–304 (2005)
[2] F. Lunkeit et al., Planet Simulator User’s Guide Version 16.0 (University of Hamburg, 2016)
[3] G. Lyu et al., J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst. 10, 207–222 (2018)
[4] H. Hersbach et al., Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 146, 1999–2049 (2020)
Sub-mesoscale cold-pool observations during FESST@HH 2020
Authors: Kirsch Bastian , Hohenegger Cathy , Klocke Daniel , Ament Felix
Published: March 2021

Cold pools are areas of cool downdraft air, that form through evaporation underneath precipitating clouds and spread on the surface as density currents. Their importance for the development and maintenance of convection is long known. Modern Large-Eddy simulations with a grid spacing of 1 km or less explicitly resolve cold pools, however, they lack reference data for an adequate validation. Available operational networks are too coarse and, therefore, miss the horizontal structure and dynamics of cold pools.

The pioneering field experiment FESST@HH aims to shed light on this observational blind spot. During summer 2020 a dense network of 102 ground-based stations covering the greater area of Hamburg (Germany) realized meteorological measurements at sub-mesoscale resolution (Δx < 2 km, Δt ≤ 10 s), that provide novel insights into previously unobserved features of cold pools. Over three months more than 30 cold-pool events of different strength and size from various types of convection were detected. Analyses of prominent cases suggest a strong relationship between the local perturbations in air temperature and pressure within a cold pool, that allows inference about its vertical depth based on the hydrostatic assumption. Furthermore, temporary decoupling of horizontal variability in these signals reveal the presence of local non-hydrostatic pressure perturbations caused by convective downdrafts. The presented work will help to better understand the characteristics and life cycle of cold pools and to identify potential biases in convection-permitting simulations.
The SARSense campaign: A dataset for comparing C- and L-band SAR backscattering behaviour to changes of soil and plant parameters in agricultural areas
Authors: Mengen David ,   SARSense Campaign Team
Published: March 2021

With the upcoming L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite mission Radar Observing System for Europe at L-band (ROSE-L) and its combination with existing C-band satellite missions such as Sentinel-1, multi-frequency SAR observations with high temporal and spatial resolution will become available. To investigate the potential for estimating soil and plant parameters, the SARSense campaign was conducted between June and August 2019 at the agricultural test site Selhausen in Germany. In this regard, we introduce a new publicly available, extensive SAR dataset and present a first analysis of C- and L-band co- and cross-polarized backscattering signals regarding their sensitivity to soil and plant parameters. The analysis includes C- and L-band airborne recordings as well as Senitnel-1 and ALOS-2 acquisitions, accompanied by in-situ soil moisture measurements and plant samplings. In addition, soil moisture was measured using cosmic-ray neutron sensing as well as unmanned aerial system (UAS) based multispectral and temperature measurements were taken during the campaign period. First analysis of the dataset revealed, that due to misalignments of corner reflectors during the SAR acquisition, temporal consistency of airborne SAR data is not given. In this regard, a scene-based, spatial analysis of backscatter behaviour from airborne SAR data was conducted, while the spaceborne SAR data enabled the analysis of temporal changes in backscatter behaviour. Focusing on root crops with radial canopy structure (sugar beet and potato) and cereal crops with elongated canopy structure (wheat, barley), the lowest correlations can be observed between backscattering signal and soil moisture, with R² values ranging below 0.35 at C-band and below 0.36 at L-band. Higher correlations can be observed focusing on vegetation water content, with R² values ranging between 0.12 and 0.64 at C-band and 0.06 and 0.64 at L-band. Regarding plant height, at C-band higher correlations with R² up to 0.55 can be seen compared to R² up to 0.36 at L-band. Looking at the individual agricultural corps in more detail, in almost all cases, the backscatter signals of C- and L-band contain a different amount of information about the soil and plant parameters, indicating that a multi-frequency approach is envisaged to disentangle soil and plant contributions to the signal and to identify specific scattering mechanisms related to the crop type, especially related to the different characteristics of root crops and cereals.
Potenial future recovery of Petermann Glacier in northwest Greenland simulated using ISSM
Authors: Åkesson Henning , Morlighem Mathieu , Jakobsson Martin , Nilsson Johan , Stranne Christian
Published: March 2021

Ice shelves in Antarctica and Greenland are thinning and breaking up, and marine outlet glaciers are retreating, where the ocean is known to play a key role. This pattern is projected to continue over the next decades to centuries due to ocean warming induced by global carbon emissions. Given that we halt or even reverse the current warming trend and fulfil the Paris agreement, it is unclear whether ice shelves and glaciers can recover from the preceding breakup and retreat. Here, we use the numerical ice sheet model ISSM to assess whether Petermann Glacier in northwest Greenland can recover after future ice shelf breakup and grounding line retreat. Petermann’s ice tongue is one of the few remaining in Greenland, where several major calving events occurred over the last decade.

Our experiments suggest that if Petermann’s ice shelf collapses due to future ocean warming, the ice shelf will not regrow even if that warming is reversed. Neither an ocean warming reversal nor a more positive surface mass balance help the ice shelf to regrow once it has collapsed. Future ocean warming may thus push Petermann into a new dynamic state from where recovery is exceedingly difficult. Finally, we investigate whether reduced calving activity allows for future grounding line readvance and ice shelf recovery. We discuss our findings in light of both potential future recovery and ice shelf collapse and regrowth in the past.
Recording sonic booms with the Romanian infrasound arrays
Authors: Ghica Daniela
Published: March 2021

Two infrasound stations are currently in operation on the Romanian territory: IPLOR 4-element array of 0.6 km aperture, in the central part, and BURARI 6-element array of 0.7 km aperture, in the northern region.

Automatic processing of continuous data recorded by the two arrays has revealed many impulsive signals generated by repeating sources confined in certain directions, i.e., sonic booms induced by supersonic aircraft activity. The approximate origins of the infrasound found by cross bearing the detections of IPLOR and BURARI arrays are typically pointed to the military air bases located in Romania and across Europe and Near East region. In some cases, the observed azimuths need to be corrected for the deviating effects of zonal cross-winds as the direction of stratospheric winds changes seasonally.

The distances to the sources of sonic booms range from 140 km (Romania) to 2200 km (North Sea, Northern Norway, Germany, France, Ukraine-Russia border, Aegean Sea, Turkey etc.). The signal characteristics varies when time and spatial distance increase: from short-spiked to long-pulsed shape, from higher amplitudes (1 Pa) to lower ones (0.01 Pa). In case of short-range propagation, high frequencies (above 1 Hz) predominate, while for long-range propagation, the lower frequency drops below 1 Hz and higher frequency components are attenuated.
Machine Learning Emulation of Parameterized Gravity Wave Momentum Fluxes in an Atmospheric Global Climate Model
Authors: Espinosa Zachary , Sheshadri Aditi , Cain Gerald , Gerber Edwin , DallaSanta Kevin
Published: March 2021

We present a novel, single-column gravity wave parameterization (GWP) that uses machine learning to emulate a physics-based GWP. An artificial neural network (ANN) is trained with output from an idealized atmospheric model and tested in an offline environment, illustrating that an ANN can learn the salient features of gravity wave momentum transport directly from resolved flow variables. We demonstrate that when trained on the westward phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, the ANN can skillfully generate the momentum fluxes associated with the eastward phase. We also show that the meridional and zonal wind components are the only flow variables necessary to predict horizontal momentum fluxes with a globally and temporally averaged R^2 value over 0.8. State-of-the-art GWPs are severely limited by computational constraints and a scarcity of observations for validation. This work constitutes a significant step towards obtaining observationally validated, computationally efficient GWPs in global climate models.
Potential social-ecological development of coastal Bangladesh through the 21st century
Authors: Lazar Attila N. , Nicholls Robert J. , Hutton Craig W. , Payo Andres , Adams Helen , Haque Anisul , Clarke Derek , Salehin Mashfiqus , Hunt Alistair , Allan Andrew , Adger W. Neil , Rahman M. Munsur
Published: March 2021

Deltas occupy only 1% of global land surface area, but contain 7% of the global human population (ca. 500 million). The influence of changing and interacting climates, demography, economy, land use and coastal/catchment management on deltaic social-ecological systems is complex and little understood. We apply a new and innovative integrated assessment model: The Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM) to coastal Bangladesh to explore a range of plausible future scenarios and quantify the sensitivities of selected environmental and socio-economic outcomes to key external and internal drivers. ΔDIEM is a tightly coupled integrated assessment platform considering climate and environmental change, demographic changes, economic changes, household decision making and governance, and designed to support the delta planning in Bangladesh. ΔDIEM allows the testing of a large number of water-based structural and policy interventions within a robust scenario framework, as well as quantify different development trajectories and their trade-offs. In this sensitivity analysis, we quantified the impact of (i) climate (precipitation, temperature and runoff), (ii) relative sea-level rise, (iii) cyclone frequency, (iv) embankment maintenance, (v) population size, (vi) economic changes at household level such as selling price of crops, cost of food, etc., (vii) land cover, and (viii) farming practices on trajectories of inundated area, soil salinity, rice productivity, poverty, income inequality and GDP/capita, assuming two contrasting scenarios in a more Positive and a more Negative World. Trajectories of these plausible futures showed a clear separation and the long-term trends are greatly influenced by the combinations of scenario assumptions. Our systemic results indicate a diverse potential set of futures for coastal Bangladesh, where good governance and adaptation could effectively mitigate the threat of sea-level rise-induced catastrophic inundation and other adverse impacts of the changing climate. However, societal inequality requires special attention otherwise climate-sensitive population groups may be left behind.
Valuing Streamflow Forecasts in Centrally Controlled Power Systems
Authors: Kern Jordan , Voisin Nathalie , Turner Sean , Yan Hongxiang , Oikonomou Konstantinos
Published: March 2021

Given the wide range of institutional and market contexts in which hydroelectric dams are operated, determining the value added from improvements in hydrologic forecasts is a challenge. Many previous examples of hydrologic forecasts being used to optimize hydropower production strategies at dams focus on a single reservoir system or watershed, with a key assumption that the marginal value of hydropower production is exogenously-defined (dams are ‘price takers’ in markets for electricity that exhibit no market power). In some cases, this may accurately reflect current institutional boundaries and decision making processes. However, with increased attention being paid to how more coordinated grid management strategies, including management of hydropower assets, could facilitate deep integration of renewable energy, it is critical to understand how the use of improved hydrologic forecasts could produce wider grid-scale benefits, including  lower costs and emissions. In this study, we quantify the value of streamflow forecasts to a centralized power system operator in charge of coordinating sub-weekly operations of hydropower assets, using the Western U.S. as a case study. We propagate flow forecasts through realistic models of reservoir operations and models of bulk power systems/wholesale electricity markets. Our results shed light on how the value of flow forecasts to grid operations can vary across regions and power systems. They also highlight the potential for conflicts between firm-specific objectives (profit maximization) and system-wide objectives (minimization of costs and emissions) when determining value added from hydrologic forecasts.  
Intrusions of sediment laden fluids into density stratified water columns can be an unrecognized source of mixing in many lakes.
Authors: Lu George , Wells Mathew , Van Stygeren Ian , Hecky Robert
Published: March 2021

When a sediment laden river flows into a stratified water body, the water mass can either intrude as an overflow, interflow, or underflow depending upon the density contrast between the river and the lake. If the river is sufficiently warm or fresh to compensate for the additional mass of sediment, an overflow results, below which convective sedimentation occurs. If the sediment load is sufficiently high, then an underflow initially occurs, from which the warm/fresh interstitial material can subsequently loft as sedimentation reduces the initial density. Such convection can even potentially overturn the water column stratification if there is a very fresh, but very high sediment load turbidity current. For intermediate cases, an interflow can occur. Here it is possible for both lofting and sediment driven convection to occur above and below the pycnocline. All these different regimes can be described in terms of two dimensionless parameters: RS and RA, which are ratios that compare the density contrast due to sediment between the river and the upper layer with the density contrast between the upper and lower layers and the density contrast between the river and upper layer, respectively. We used laboratory experiments to describe the vigour of convection in terms of these dimensionless parameters, which then allows the behaviour in various rivers inflows into lakes to be predicted. We also apply our observations to predict how a turbidity current could lead to lofting and possible overturn of the stratification of meromictic Lake Kivu.
Development of a flash drought intensity index
Authors: Otkin Jason , Zhong Yafang , Hunt Eric , Christian Jordan , Basara Jeff , Nguyen Hanh , Wheeler Matthew , Ford Trent , Hoell Andrew , Svoboda Mark , Anderson Martha
Published: March 2021

Flash droughts are characterized by a period of unusually rapid drought intensification over sub-seasonal time scales that often take vulnerable stakeholders by surprise given their rapid onset. Various studies have shown that flash drought is more likely to develop when extreme weather conditions persist over the same region for several weeks or longer. Though precipitation deficits over some period of time are a prerequisite for drought, their presence alone is unlikely to lead to flash drought because a lack of precipitation is only one of several factors that contribute to rapid drought development. When below normal precipitation occurs alongside other extreme weather anomalies such as intense heat that enhance atmospheric evaporative demand, their co-occurrence can lead to a rapid depletion of root zone soil moisture content due to increased evapotranspiration. This in turn can lead to a rapid increase in vegetation moisture stress and the onset of flash drought conditions.

Several recent studies have used quantitative definitions based on rapid changes in a given drought monitoring dataset to identify flash droughts in the climatological record. Here, we build upon these recent studies by developing a new flash drought intensity index that accounts not only for their rapid rate of intensification, but also for how severe the drought conditions become during and after the period of rapid intensification. The method includes two components that together capture the suddenness of flash drought development (faster intensification corresponds to a more severe flash drought) and the actual drought severity after the rapid intensification period ends (severe drought conditions lasting for a longer period correspond to a more severe flash drought). The motivation behind this method is the desire to account for both the “flash” and “drought” aspects of flash drought because both of these characteristics influence how people view flash droughts. Thus, a metric that considers both of these aspects provides a more comprehensive assessment of flash drought intensity and its impacts on the environment. In this talk, we will present the proposed flash drought intensity index methodology, along with results from individual case studies and a 40-year climatology to illustrate its use.
The hidden signature of temperature-moisture couplings in the heat sensitivity of global crops
Authors: Lesk Corey , Coffel Ethan , Winter Jonathan , Ray Deepak , Zscheischler Jakob , Seneviratne Sonia , Horton Radley
Published: March 2021

Rising air temperatures are a leading risk to global crop production and food security under climate change. Recent research has emphasized the critical role of moisture availability in regulating crop responses to heat and the importance of temperature-moisture couplings in the genesis of concurrent hot and dry conditions. Here, we demonstrate that the heat sensitivity of key global crops is dependent on the local strength of couplings between temperature and moisture in the climate system (namely, the interannual correlations of growing season temperature with evapotransipration and precipitation). Over 1970-2013, maize and soy yields declined more during hotter growing seasons where decreased precipitation and evapotranspiration more strongly accompanied higher temperatures. Based on this historical pattern and a suite of CMIP6 climate model projections, we show that changes in temperature-moisture couplings in response to warming could enhance the heat sensitivity of these crops as temperatures rise, worsening the impact of warming by ~5% on global average. However, these changes will benefit crops in some areas where couplings weaken, and are highly uncertain in others. Our results demonstrate that climate change will impact crops not only through warming, but also through changes in temperature-moisture couplings, which may alter the sensitivity of crop yields to heat as warming proceeds. Robust adaptation of cropping systems will need to consider this underappreciated risk to food production from climate change.
Identification of the ground signatures of magnetospheric current systems as a function of latitude during intense magnetic storms
Authors: Pitsis Vasilis , Balasis Georgios , Daglis Ioannis , Vassiliadis Dimitris
Published: March 2021

We show that changes in the magnetospheric ring current and auroral currents during the magnetic storms of March 2015 and June 2015, are recorded in several specific ways by ground magnetometers. The ring current changes are detected in geomagnetic field measurements of ground stations at magnetic mid-latitudes from -50 to +50 degrees. The auroral currents changes are detected at high magnetic latitudes from 50 to about 73 degrees. Finally, for stations between 73 and about 85 degrees the measurements of the ground magnetometers seem to be directly correlated with the convection electric field VBSouth of the solar wind. Using the correlations among magnetic fields measured at stations ordered by latitude, a correlation diagram is obtained where the maximum correlation values for fields determined by the ring current form a distinct block. High-latitude magnetic fields from stations at higher latitudes, which are mainly determined by auroral currents, form a different block in the same diagram. This is in agreement with our earlier work using wavelet transforms on ground magnetic-field time series, where mid-latitude fields stations that are influenced mainly by the ring current, give a critical exponent greater than 2 while higher-latitude fields show a more complex dependence with two exponents. The maximum correlation values for mid-latitude fields correlated with the SYM-H index vary from 0.8 to 0.9, and, thus, we infer that those geomagnetic disturbances are mainly due to the ring current. The maximum correlations between the same fields and the solar wind VBSouth vary from 0.5 to 0.7. Fields at magnetic latitudes between 50 and 73 degrees exhibit greater correlation values for the AL index rather than the SYM-H index. This is expected since in the auroral zone, the convection- and substorm-associated auroral electrojets contribute significantly to the deviation of the geomagnetic field from its quiet-time value. In this case, maximum correlations vary between 0.6 and 0.7 for auroral latitude stations when compared with AL, as opposed to 0.4–0.5 when compared with SYM-H. Our results show how different measures of ground geomagnetic variations reflect the time evolution of several magnetospheric current systems and of the solar wind – magnetosphere coupling.
Interaction between carbon cycling and phytoplankton community succession in hydropower reservoirs: Evidence from stable carbon isotope analysis
Authors: jing Xiao , baoli Wang , Xiao-long Qiu , Mei-ling Yang , Cong-qiang Liu
Published: March 2021

Abstract: Carbon (C) cycling and phytoplankton community succession are very important for hydropower reservoir ecosystems; however, whether the former controls the latter or the reverse is still debated. To understand this process, we investigated phytoplankton species compositions, stable C isotope compositions of dissolved inorganic C and particulate organic C (δ13C-DIC and δ13C-POC), and related environmental factors in seven hydropower reservoirs on the Wujiang River, Southwest China. A total of 36 algal genera from seven phyla were identified, and phytoplankton community exhibited obvious temporal and spatial difference. The δ13C-DIC (from -9.96 to -3.73‰) and δ13C-POC (from -33.44 to -21.17‰) co-varied with the algal species succession and increased markedly during the shift of dominant species from Bacillariophyta to Pyrrophyta or Cyanophyta. In addition, the strong C fixation in the euphotic layer resulted in great δ13C-DIC and CO2 stratification in the reservoir profile. Statistical analyses and C isotope evidence demonstrate that an increase in water temperature triggers phytoplankton community succession, and that CO2 availability is a key to drive the succession direction, and in turn, C cycling is enhanced when phytoplankton are dominated by Pyrrophyta or Cyanophyta in hydropower reservoirs. This study confirms that C cycling and phytoplankton community succession interact with each other and evolve synchronously, and will be helpful to systematically evaluate the environmental consequences of river damming.

Keywords: Carbon biogeochemical cycling; Phytoplankton community succession; Stable carbon isotope; Reservoir effect; Wujiang River.
Individual and combined impacts of ENSO and East Asian winter monsoon on the South China Sea cold tongue intensity
Authors: Wang Zhenzhen , Wu Renguang
Published: March 2021

A low sea surface temperature (SST) region extends southward in the central part of southern South China Sea during boreal winter, which is called the South China Sea cold tongue (SCS CT). This talk presents an analysis of the factors of interannual variation of SST in the SCS CT region and the individual and combined impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) on the SCS CT intensity. During years with ENSO alone or with co-existing ENSO and anomalous EAWM, shortwave radiation and ocean horizontal advection play major roles in the interannual variation of the SCS CT intensity. Ocean advection contributes largely to the SST change in the region southeast of Vietnam. In strong CT years with anomalous EAWM alone, surface wind-related latent heat flux has a major role and shortwave radiation is secondary to the EAWM-induced change of the SCS CT intensity, whereas the role of ocean horizontal advection is relatively small. The above differences in the roles of ocean advection and latent heat flux are associated with the distribution of low level wind anomalies. In anomalous CT years with ENSO, low level anomalous cyclone/anticyclone-related wind speed change leads to latent heat flux anomalies with effects opposite to shortwave radiation. In strong CT years with anomalous EAWM alone, surface wind-related latent heat flux anomalies are large as anomalous winds are aligned with climatological winds.
Sustained oxygen spectral gaps and their dynamic evolution in the inner magnetosphere
Authors: Yue Chao
Published: March 2021

Van Allen Probes observations of ion spectra often show a sustained gap within a very narrow energy range throughout the full orbit. To understand their formation mechanism, we statistically investigate the characteristics of the narrow gaps for oxygen ions and find that they are most frequently observed near the noon sector with a peak occurrence rate of over 30%. The magnetic moment (μ) of the oxygen ions in the gap shows a strong dependence on magnetic local time (MLT), with higher and lower μ in the morning and afternoon sectors, respectively. Moreover, we find through superposed epoch analysis that the gap formation also depends on geomagnetic conditions. Those gaps formed at lower magnetic moments (μ < 3000 keV/G) are associated with stable convection electric fields, which enable magnetospheric ions to follow a steady drift pattern that facilitates the gap formation by corotational drift resonance. On the other hand, gaps with higher μ values are statistically preceded by a gradual increase of geomagnetic activity. We suggest that ions within the gap were originally located inside the Alfven layer following closed drift paths, before they were transitioned into open drift paths as the convection electric field was enhanced. The sunward drift of these ions, with very low fluxes, forms a drainage void in the dayside magnetosphere manifested as the sustained gap in the oxygen spectrum. This scenario is supported by particle-tracing simulations, which reproduce most of the observed characteristics and therefore provide new insights into inner magnetospheric dynamics.
Effect of bridge pier induced turbulence on vegetated meander river morphology
Authors: Modalavalasa Suresh , Chembolu Vinay , Nandi Ketan Kumar , Kulkarni Vinayak , Dutta Subashisa
Published: March 2021

A natural riverine corridor has several curls based on its physical and geomorphological characteristics. In most of the scenarios, the bridge construction on a meandering channel aligns along the convergent section. The enhanced secondary flow at convergent sections and the effect of meandering curvature bring the complexity in river turbulent characteristics. This effect may become predominant inside the main channel with variability in size and shape of the bridge pier. The present work discusses the turbulent structures in the main channel due to the variability in pier diameter (1inch and 2 inch ϕ) and a number of bridge piers on floodplain with inclusive of vegetation. Three-dimensional flow vertical and transverse velocity measurements were carried with acoustic Doppler velocimeter (ADV) 100Hz, at apex cross-section in a low sinuous channel. The results of the analysis showed that the combined effect of pier and vegetation on floodplain significantly altered the shear layer mechanisms in the channel with varying flow patterns. The comparison of the difference in secondary velocities between the pier with 1 inch and 2 inch ϕ  is 57% more in the case of lesser diameter pier. Further, the effect of size and number of piers on transverse velocity, Reynold’s shear stress is more susceptible to the mainstream. The convergence induced contraction of the meandering channel along with the bridge pier on its floodplain is observed to affect the turbulent structures formed in the main channel.