Predicting 90-day survival of patients with COVID-19: Survival of Severely Ill COVID (SOSIC) scores
Authors: Schmidt Matthieu , Guidet Bertrand , Demoule Alexandre , Ponnaiah Maharajah , Fartoukh Muriel , Puybasset Louis , Combes Alain , Hajage David ,   for the COVID-ICU Investigators, Mercat Alain , Asfar Pierre , Beloncle François , Demiselle Julien , Pham Tài , Pavot Arthur , Monnet Xavier , Richard Christian , Demoule Alexandre , Dres Martin , Mayaux Julien , Beurton Alexandra , Daubin Cédric , Descamps Richard , Joret Aurélie , Du Cheyron Damien , Pene Frédéric , Chiche Jean-Daniel , Jozwiak Mathieu , Jaubert Paul , Voiriot Guillaume , Fartoukh Muriel , Teulier Marion , Blayau Clarisse , L’Her Erwen , Aubron Cécile , Bodenes Laetitia , Ferriere Nicolas , Auchabie Johann , Le Meur Anthony , Pignal Sylvain , Mazzoni Thierry , Quenot Jean-Pierre , Andreu Pascal , Roudau Jean-Baptiste , Labruyère Marie , Nseir Saad , Preau Sébastien , Poissy Julien , Mathieu Daniel , Benhamida Sarah , Paulet Rémi , Roucaud Nicolas , Thyrault Martial , Daviet Florence , Hraiech Sami , Parzy Gabriel , Sylvestre Aude , Jochmans Sébastien , Bouilland Anne-Laure , Monchi Mehran , Danguy des Déserts Marc , Mathais Quentin , Rager Gwendoline , Pasquier Pierre , Jean Reignier , Amélie Seguin , Charlotte Garret , Emmanuel Canet , Dellamonica Jean , Saccheri Clément , Lombardi Romain , Kouchit Yanis , Jacquier Sophie , Mathonnet Armelle , Nay Mai-Ahn , Runge Isabelle , Martino Frédéric , Flurin Laure , Rolle Amélie , Carles Michel , Coudroy Rémi , Thille Arnaud W. , Frat Jean-Pierre , Rodriguez Maeva , Beuret Pascal , Tientcheu Audrey , Vincent Arthur , Michelin Florian , Tamion Fabienne , Carpentier Dorothée , Boyer Déborah , Girault Christophe , Gissot Valérie , Ehrmann Stéphan , Salmon Gandonniere Charlotte , Elaroussi Djlali , Delbove Agathe , Fedun Yannick , Huntzinger Julien , Lebas Eddy , Kisoka Grâce , Grégoire Céline , Marchetta Stella , Lambermont Bernard , Argaud Laurent , Baudry Thomas , Bertrand Pierre-Jean , Dargent Auguste , Guitton Christophe , Chudeau Nicolas , Landais Mickaël , Darreau Cédric , Ferre Alexis , Gros Antoine , Lacave Guillaume , Bruneel Fabrice , Neuville Mathilde , Devaquet Jérôme , Tachon Guillaume , Gallot Richard , Chelha Riad , Galbois Arnaud , Jallot Anne , Chalumeau Lemoine Ludivine , Kuteifan Khaldoun , Pointurier Valentin , Jandeaux Louise-Marie , Mootien Joy , Damoisel Charles , Sztrymf Benjamin , Schmidt Matthieu , Combes Alain , Chommeloux Juliette , Luyt Charles-Edouard , Schortgen Frédérique , Rusel Leon , Jung Camille , Gobert Florent , Vimpere Damien , Lamhaut Lionel , Sauneuf Bertrand , Charrrier Liliane , Calus Julien , Desmeules Isabelle , Painvin Benoît , Tadie Jean-Marc , Castelain Vincent , Michard Baptiste , Herbrecht Jean-Etienne , Baldacini Mathieu , Weiss Nicolas , Demeret Sophie , Marois Clémence , Rohaut Benjamin , Moury Pierre-Henri , Savida Anne-Charlotte , Couadau Emmanuel , Série Mathieu , Alexandru Nica , Bruel Cédric , Fontaine Candice , Garrigou Sonia , Courtiade Mahler Juliette , Leclerc Maxime , Ramakers Michel , Garçon Pierre , Massou Nicole , Van Vong Ly , Sen Juliane , Lucas Nolwenn , Chemouni Franck , Stoclin Annabelle , Avenel Alexandre , Faure Henri , Gentilhomme Angélie , Ricome Sylvie , Abraham Paul , Monard Céline , Textoris Julien , Rimmele Thomas , Montini Florent , Lejour Gabriel , Lazard Thierry , Etienney Isabelle , Kerroumi Younes , Dupuis Claire , Bereiziat Marine , Coupez Elisabeth , Thouy François , Hoffmann Clément , Donat Nicolas , Chrisment Anne , Blot Rose-Marie , Kimmoun Antoine , Jacquot Audrey , Mattei Matthieu , Levy Bruno , Ravan Ramin , Dopeux Loïc , Liteaudon Jean-Mathias , Roux Delphine , Rey Brice , Anghel Radu , Schenesse Deborah , Gevrey Vincent , Castanera Jermy , Petua Philippe , Madeux Benjamin , Hartman Otto , Piagnerelli Michael , Joosten Anne , Noel Cinderella , Biston Patrick , Noel Thibaut , Bouar Gurvan , Boukhanza Messabi , Demarest Elsa , Bajolet Marie-France , Charrier Nathanaël , Quenet Audrey , Zylberfajn Cécile , Dufour Nicolas , Mégarbane Buno , Voicu Sqébastian , Deye Nicolas , Malissin Isabelle , Legay François , Debarre Matthieu , Barbarot Nicolas , Fillatre Pierre , Delord Bertrand , Laterrade Thomas , Saghi Tahar , Pujol Wilfried , Cungi Pierre-Julien , Esnault Pierre , Cardinale Mickael , Hong Tuan Ha Vivien , Fleury Grégory , Brou Marie-Ange , Zafimahazo Daniel , Tran-Van David , Avargues Patrick , Carenco Lisa , Robin Nicolas , Ouali Alexandre , Houdou Lucie , Le Terrier Christophe , Suh Noémie , Primmaz Steve , Pugin Jérome , Weiss Emmanuel , Gauss Tobias , Moyer Jean-Denis , Paugam Burtz Catherine , La Combe Béatrice , Smonig Rolland , Violleau Jade , Cailliez Pauline , Chelly Jonathan , Marchalot Antoine , Saladin Cécile , Bigot Christelle , Fayolle Pierre-Marie , Fatséas Jules , Ibrahim Amr , Resiere Dabor , Hage Rabih , Cholet Clémentine , Cantier Marie , Trouiler Pierre , Montravers Philippe , Lortat-Jacob Brice , Tanaka Sebastien , Tran Dinh Alexy , Duranteau Jacques , Harrois Anatole , Dubreuil Guillaume , Werner Marie , Godier Anne , Hamada Sophie , Zlotnik Diane , Nougue Hélène , Mekontso-Dessap Armand , Carteaux Guillaume , Razazi Keyvan , De Prost Nicolas , Mongardon Nicolas , Langeron Olivier , Levesque Eric , Attias Arié , de Roquetaillade Charles , Chousterman Benjamin G. , Mebazaa Alexandre , Gayat Etienne , Garnier Marc , Pardo Emmanuel , Satre-Buisson Lea , Gutton Christophe , Yvin Elise , Marcault Clémence , Azoulay Elie , Darmon Michael , Ait Oufella Hafid , Hariri Geoffroy , Urbina Tomas , Mazerand Sandie , Heming Nicholas , Santi Francesca , Moine Pierre , Annane Djillali , Bouglé Adrien , Omar Edris , Lancelot Aymeric , Begot Emmanuelle , Plantefeve Gaétan , Contou Damien , Mentec Hervé , Pajot Olivier , Faguer Stanislas , Cointault Olivier , Lavayssiere Laurence , Nogier Marie-Béatrice , Jamme Matthieu , Pichereau Claire , Hayon Jan , Outin Hervé , Dépret François , Coutrot Maxime , Chaussard Maité , Guillemet Lucie , Goffin Pierre , Thouny Romain , Guntz Julien , Jadot Laurent , Persichini Romain , Jean-Michel Vanessa , Georges Hugues , Caulier Thomas , Pradel Gaël , Hausermann Marie-Hélène , Nguyen-Valat Thi My Hue , Boudinaud Michel , Vivier Emmanuel , Rosseli Sylvène , Bourdin Gaël , Pommier Christian , Vinclair Marc , Poignant Simon , Mons Sandrine , Bougouin Wulfran , Bruna Franklin , Maestraggi Quentin , Roth Christian , Bitker Laurent , Dhelft François , Bonnet-Chateau Justine , Filippelli Mathilde , Morichau-Beauchant Tristan , Thierry Stéphane , Le Roy Charlotte , Saint Jouan Mélanie , Goncalves Bruno , Mazeraud Aurélien , Daniel Matthieu , Sharshar Tarek , Cadoz Cyril , Gaci Rostane , Gette Sébastien , Louis Guillaune , Sacleux Sophe-Caroline , Ordan Marie-Amélie , Cravoisy Aurélie , Conrad Marie , Courte Guilhem , Gibot Sébastien , Benzidi Younès , Casella Claudia , Serpin Laurent , Setti Jean-Lou , Besse Marie-Catherine , Bourreau Anna , Pillot Jérôme , Rivera Caroline , Vinclair Camille , Robaux Marie-Aline , Achino Chloé , Delignette Marie-Charlotte , Mazard Tessa , Aubrun Frédéric , Bouchet Bruno , Frérou Aurélien , Muller Laura , Quentin Charlotte , Degoul Samuel , Stihle Xavier , Sumian Claude , Bergero Nicoletta , Lanaspre Bernard , Quintard Hervé , Maiziere Eve Marie , Egreteau Pierre-Yves , Leloup Guillaume , Berteau Florin , Cottrel Marjolaine , Bouteloup Marie , Jeannot Matthieu , Blanc Quentin , Saison Julien , Geneau Isabelle , Grenot Romaric , Ouchike Abdel , Hazera Pascal , Masse Anne-Lyse , Demiri Suela , Vezinet Corinne , Baron Elodie , Benchetrit Deborah , Monsel Antoine , Trebbia Grégoire , Schaack Emmanuelle , Lepecq Raphaël , Bobet Mathieu , Vinsonneau Christophe , Dekeyser Thibault , Delforge Quentin , Rahmani Imen , Vivet Bérengère , Paillot Jonathan , Hierle Lucie , Chaignat Claire , Valette Sarah , Her Benoït , Brunet Jennifier , Page Mathieu , Boiste Fabienne , Collin Anthony , Bavozet Florent , Garin Aude , Dlala Mohamed , Mhamdi Kais , Beilouny Bassem , Lavalard Alexandra , Perez Severine , Veber Benoit , Guitard Pierre-Gildas , Gouin Philippe , Lamacz Anna , Plouvier Fabienne , Delaborde Bertrand P. , Kherchache Aïssa , Chaalal Amina , Ricard Jean-Damien , Amouretti Marc , Freita-Ramos Santiago , Roux Damien , Constantin Jean-Michel , Assefi Mona , Lecore Marine , Selves Agathe , Prevost Florian , Lamer Christian , Shi Ruiying , Knani Lyes , Pili Floury Sébastien , Vettoretti Lucie , Levy Michael , Marsac Lucile , Dauger Stéphane , Guilmin-Crépon Sophie , Winiszewski Hadrien , Piton Gael , Soumagne Thibaud , Capellier Gilles , Putegnat Jean-Baptiste , Bayle Frédérique , Perrou Maya , Thao Ghyslaine , Géri Guillaume , Charron Cyril , Repessé Xavier , Vieillard-Baron Antoine , Guilbart Mathieu , Roger Pierre-Alexandre , Hinard Sébastien , Macq Pierre-Yves , Chaulier Kevin , Goutte Sylvie , Chillet Patrick , Pitta Anaïs , Darjent Barbara , Bruneau Amandine , Lasocki Sigismond , Leger Maxime , Gergaud Soizic , Lemarie Pierre , Terzi Nicolas , Schwebel Carole , Dartevel Anaïs , Galerneau Louis-Marie , Diehl Jean-Luc , Hauw-Berlemont Caroline , Péron Nicolas , Guérot Emmanuel , Mohebbi Amoli Abolfazl , Benhamou Michel , Deyme Jean-Pierre , Andremont Olivier , Lena Diane , Cady Julien , Causeret Arnaud , De La Chapelle Arnaud , Cracco Christophe , Rouleau Stéphane , Schnell David , Foucault Camille , Lory Cécile , Chapelle Thibault , Bruckert Vincent , Garcia Julie , Sahraoui Abdlazize , Abbosh Nathalie , Bornstain Caroline , Pernet Pierre , Poirson Florent , Pasem Ahmed , Karoubi Philippe , Poupinel Virginie , Gauthier Caroline , Bouniol François , Feuchere Philippe , Bavozet Florent , Heron Anne , Carreira Serge , Emery Malo , Le Floch Anne Sophie , Giovannangeli Luana , Herzog Nicolas , Giacardi Christophe , Baudic Thibaut , Thill Chloé , Lebbah Said , Palmyre Jessica , Tubach Florence , Hajage David , Bonnet Nicolas , Ebstein Nathan , Gaudry Stéphane , Cohen Yves , Noublanche Julie , Lesieur Olivier , Sément Arnaud , Roca-Cerezo Isabel , Pascal Michel , Sma Nesrine , Colin Gwenhaël , Lacherade Jean-Claude , Bionz Gauthier , Maquigneau Natacha , Bouzat Pierre , Durand Michel , Hérault Marie-Christine , Payen Jean-Francois 
Published: December 2021

Background

Predicting outcomes of critically ill intensive care unit (ICU) patients with coronavirus-19 disease (COVID-19) is a major challenge to avoid futile, and prolonged ICU stays.

Methods

The objective was to develop predictive survival models for patients with COVID-19 after 1-to-2 weeks in ICU. Based on the COVID–ICU cohort, which prospectively collected characteristics, management, and outcomes of critically ill patients with COVID-19. Machine learning was used to develop dynamic, clinically useful models able to predict 90-day mortality using ICU data collected on day (D) 1, D7 or D14.

Results

Survival of Severely Ill COVID (SOSIC)-1, SOSIC-7, and SOSIC-14 scores were constructed with 4244, 2877, and 1349 patients, respectively, randomly assigned to development or test datasets. The three models selected 15 ICU-entry variables recorded on D1, D7, or D14. Cardiovascular, renal, and pulmonary functions on prediction D7 or D14 were among the most heavily weighted inputs for both models. For the test dataset, SOSIC-7’s area under the ROC curve was slightly higher (0.80 [0.74–0.86]) than those for SOSIC-1 (0.76 [0.71–0.81]) and SOSIC-14 (0.76 [0.68–0.83]). Similarly, SOSIC-1 and SOSIC-7 had excellent calibration curves, with similar Brier scores for the three models.

Conclusion

The SOSIC scores showed that entering 15 to 27 baseline and dynamic clinical parameters into an automatable XGBoost algorithm can potentially accurately predict the likely 90-day mortality post-ICU admission (sosic.shinyapps.io/shiny). Although external SOSIC-score validation is still needed, it is an additional tool to strengthen decisions about life-sustaining treatments and informing family members of likely prognosis.