bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Short Holding Time Effect on Fatigue Behavior of Unnotched Graphite/Epoxy Laminates (±45°)2s
Authors: Lee J.R. , De Charentenay F.X.
Published: March 2007

The interaction of fatigue-creep in unnotched graphite/epoxy laminates, T300/5208 (±45°)2 s, was investigated in terms of fatigue life. The holding time of 150 seconds with the peak load in the fatigue test was adopted to produce fatigue-creep interac tion. The number of fatigue cycles between the holding times depending on the peak loads was changed. The fatigue retardation was observed at the peak loads of 130 and 112 MPa. The fatigue acceleration was observed at the peak loads of 158 and 149 MPa. The maxi mum loads and loading histories were the controlling factors for the fatigue-creep inter actions.
Prediction of Notched Strength of 3D Carbon-Carbon Material Under Simple Tension
Authors: Zhenlong Gu  , Lan Meng
Published: March 2007

First of all, the development of inherent damage near notch tip in 3D carbon-carbon was examined with polariscopic microscope while loading. To track the notch tip during loading, a specially designed adjustable stand and loading apparatus were designed and fabricated. Based on the observation, a very simple analytical model was es tablished. In order to use micromechanics to predict the notched strength, the in-situ strength of fiber bundle was measured with a specially designed fixture. The notched strength of 3D carbon-carbon material was predicted from the longitudinal strength of the portion of the fiber bundle, where the stress concentration takes place. Hedgepeth's stress concentration factor for infinite plate is corrected for finite plate. Calculation of stress fac tors show that failure of a single fiber bundle nearest to the notch tip will cause total failure of the specimen. With Zweben's statistical strength criterion, the strength of the notched 3D carbon-carbon material was predicted and the prediction agrees with experimental results fairly well.
High Pressure Squeeze Casting of Unidirectional Graphite Fiber Reinforced Aluminum Matrix Composites
Authors: Sample Robert J. , Bhagat Ram B. , Amateau Maurice F.
Published: March 2007

High pressure squeeze casting has been developed to fabricate unidirec tional fiber reinforced metal matrix composites having a wide range of fiber volume frac tion. The process development required innovative die-design in order to minimize the direct contact of molten metal with the metallic die, to prevent liquid metal escape from the die, to ensure fast infiltration and rapid solidification under high pressure. However, the application of high pressure causes certain difficulties, such as maintaining all fibers aligned in one direction and ensuring their uniform distribution in any cross section of the composites. This paper addresses the techniques used to overcome these difficulties.

Tensile test results for graphite fiber reinforced aluminum matrix composites are pre sented and discussed. Optical and scanning electron microscopy analysis of polished and fracture surfaces provide details of fiber/matrix interface characteristics and fracture mechanisms of the composites.
Interlamellar Fracture and Craze Growth in PEEK Composites under Cyclic Loading
Authors: Lustiger A. , Newaz G.M.
Published: March 2007

In this paper microscopic details of the crack tip in a unidirectional car bon/PEEK composite material subjected to interlaminar fatigue loading at room tempera ture and elevated temperature are discussed. The photomicrographs show a distinct difference in failure modes at room and elevated temperatures. At room temperature, the failure occurs due to separation between crystalline lamellae in the matrix. In contrast, at elevated temperature, failure is due to breakup of crystalline lamellae which allows forma tion of crazes at the crack tip. For a slowly cooled specimen tested at elevated temperature, a mixture of these failure modes is evident. This understanding is essential to ap propriately model delamination growth in advanced semicrystalline thermoplastic com posites.
Compression Behavior of Single Carbon Filaments Embedded in an Epoxy Polymer
Authors: Boll D.J. , Jensen R.M. , Cordner L. , Bascom W.D.
Published: March 2007

The compression loading of single carbon filaments embedded in an epoxy polymer was investigated to determine the micro-mechanisms of failure. The fibers were observed using transmission polarized light microscopy. Failure invariably occurred by transverse shear with no evidence of microbuckling. A distinctive stress birefringence pattern was observed around the fibers which suggests a systematic variation in fiber modulus but with dimensions much larger than the crystallographic dimensions character istic of carbon fibers. The specimens were etched with acid to reveal the regions of fiber fracture. Although a variety of fracture morphologies were observed, they are all believed to be post-failure damage subsequent to the initial shear failure. The acid etching also revealed etch patterns in the matrix near the fiber/matrix boundary which are probably the result of chemical inhomogeneities in the interphase region.
Environmental Testing Using a Compliant Load-Frame
Authors: Sloan Forrest E. , Seymour Richard J.
Published: March 2007

A simple technique is presented for characterizing crack growth in compos ite materials subjected to a hostile environment. The method, based on linear-elastic frac ture mechanics (LEFM), retains the simplicity of constant-strain testing while greatly in creasing the observed crack growth. Load is applied using a rigid frame in series with an extension spring. The enhancement of crack propagation leads to a more accurate assess ment of long-term environmental cracking susceptibility. Crack growth rates were measured in fiberglass/epoxy double-cantilever beam (DCB) specimens to verify the theory for stress-corrosion-cracking (SCC). No SCC threshold was observed for the fiberglass/epoxy in distilled water. Applicability to corrosion-fatigue (CF) testing is dis cussed.
Influence of Lamination and Boundary Constraint on the Deformation of Moderately Thick Cross-Ply Rectangular Plates
Authors: Chaudhuri Reaz A. , Kabir Humayun R.H.
Published: March 2007

Hitherto unavailable analytical solutions to boundary-value problems of moderately thick general cross-ply laminated rectangular plates, subjected to various boundary conditions, are presented. A recently developed double Fourier series-based method has been utilized to solve a system of five highly coupled linear second-order par tial differential equations (with constant coefficients), that emerge from the first-order shear deformation theory (FSDT) and the associated geometric and natural boundary con ditions. The convergence characteristics of the series solutions, especially their de pendence on lamination and boundary constraint, are numerically investigated in detail. Other numerical results presented here include (1) verification with the available analytical solutions based on the classical lamination theory (CLT) as well as FSDT, (2) investigation of the effect of length-to-thickness, length-to-width and modular ratios on the response of antisymmetric and symmetric cross-ply plates, with various boundary constraints and (3) spatial variation of displacements and moments.
Modeling and Fracture Prediction of Single Ply Cord-Rubber Composites
Authors: Pidaparti R.M.V. , Yang Henry T.Y. , Soedel W.
Published: March 2007

This paper presents finite element and experimental results for single ply strips of unidirectional cord-rubber composite using two types of finite elements: rubber elements and cord-rubber elements. The finite element model takes into account the large strain and nonlinear behavior of the rubber material, bimodular material behavior and geometrical nonlinear behavior due to reorientations of the cords. To illustrate the be havior of strips of single ply composites, results are presented in the form of load- displacement, deformed shapes and cord strains for three polyester cord rubber composite specimens. It is shown that the rubber between cords may contract or bulge, depending on the cord angle. The effect of the material models for rubber material and cord-rubber com posite material on the load displacement behavior is also presented. Utilizing this finite el ement model and critical tearing energy criterion, an attempt is made to predict the critical loads for crack growth initiation and final fracture for four cracked rubber composite spec imens. All the finite element results are compared to experimental data with relatively good agreement.
Analysis of Mold Filling in RTM Process
Authors: Zhong Cai
Published: March 2007

A simplified RTM process analysis is presented which is based on the one-dimensional resin flow model by using Darcy's law for flow through porous media. Closed form solutions for the wet length, mold filling time, and pressure distributions are derived for different simplified mold shapes such as rectangular, trapezoidal, and circular sections. These results are then applied to the mold design and vent arrangement in RTM process. Two design principles are proposed from these derivations and confirmed by nu merical application examples. One is to arrange the vents to assure that flow takes the shorter path whenever possible. The other is to use line gates and to inject the fluid from the larger side to the smaller side, or with rapid reduction of the filling volume. Illustration examples show that these arrangements can cut down the mold filling time or reduce the required applied pressure. Especially in the case of RTM with high volume fraction of fibrous preforms, where the process usually involves applying a constant inlet pressure to squeeze the resin into the preform, the mold filling time or the applied pressure require ment is lowered substantially by these arrangements.
Progression of Bending Fatigue Damage around a Discontinuity in Glass/Epoxy Composites
Authors: Herrington P.D. , Doucet A.B.
Published: March 2007

The progression of bending fatigue damage around a discontinuity in spring orientation glass fiber reinforced epoxy was investigated. The specimens contained circular holes of two different hole diameter/specimen width ratios. Bending fatigue tests were performed by applying a constant maximum deflection at the end of the cantilever type specimen. The extent of delamination and internal cracking was observed using visual and scanning electron microscopy. The reduction in stiffness during fatigue cycling was linearly related to the total delamination size, independent of the maximum applied load. It was also determined that the relative size of the hole had no significant effect on the bending fatigue life.
On the Bearing Strength of Fibre Metal Laminates
Authors: Slagter W.J.
Published: March 2007

Published work on mechanically fastened joints in composites has demon strated that the influence of lateral restraint on bearing strength is of paramount impor tance. Delamination in conjunction with buckling is frequently observed if there is a lack of lateral restraint (pin-type loading). An investigation is performed on the bearing strength behaviour of fibre metal laminates (ARALL and GLARE) for which similar fail ure modes are found. The theoretical analysis is based on an existing delamination buck ling model for composites. However, an alternative out-of-plane deformation function in corporating a variation with respect to the angle is used. The energy method is extended to include the strain energy of both the aluminium and the prepreg layers. The analytical procedure is supported by finite element calculations, and the theoretical predictions are compared with available experimental data. Very good correlation is obtained. If there is sufficient lateral restraint (bolt-type loading) the bearing ultimate strength can, on the other hand, be predicted by a simple rule of mixtures based on the aluminium volume fraction.
Numerical Simulation of the Tensile Behavior of 2D-SiC/SiC Cross-Ply Laminates
Authors: Pluvinage P. , Quenisset J.M.
Published: March 2007

A numerical tool has been developed in order to predict the influence of the main processing parameters on the mechanical behavior of SiC/SiC [0° ,90°] lami nates. The contrast between the brittle properties of 90° plies and the damage properties of 0° plies has been taken into account as well as the particular morphology of this type of composite processed by chemical vapor infiltration. The model which has been pro posed represents the different features and sequences of laminate damage behavior.
A Criterion for Splitting Crack Initiation in Unidirectional Fiber-Reinforced Composites
Authors: Tohgo Keiichiro , Wang Albert S.D. , Chou Tsu-Wei
Published: March 2007

Unidirectional fiber-remforced composites exhibit a high degree of anisot ropy in strength. Crack initiation from a pre-existing crack almost always occurs along the fiber direction; it is known as the splitting crack. One criterion for the splitting crack initi ation under mixed mode condition is proposed. In this criterion, the splitting crack initia tion is characterized by a unique interaction curve on the Kfσ-Kf τ plane, where Kfσ and K fτ are the tensile and shear stress intensity factors along the fiber direction.

Fracture toughness tests under mixed mode loading are systematically carried out on two graphite-epoxy systems: AS4/3501-6 and IM7/85517. For both composites, the condi tion of the splitting crack initiation can be characterized by a vertical line of Kfσ = con stant on the K fσ-Kfτ plane. This means that the tensile stress intensity factor along the fiber direction is responsible for the splitting crack initiation. Furthermore, it is found that under the conditions of Kfσ = 0 or Kf σ < 0, damage occurs at locations away from the tip of the pre-existing crack before crack initiation and that the fracture toughness under such conditions is high.
Dynamic Stability of a Composite Circular Cylindrical Shell Subjected to Combined Axial and Torsional Loading
Authors: Argento A.
Published: March 2007

The dynamic stability of thin, clamped, composite circular cylindrical shells is studied for combined axial and torsional loading. Each load is taken to be har monically varying; the frequencies of the two loads differ, in general. For the case in which the frequencies are commensurate, the applied load function is periodic. The equa tions of motion for the shell are reduced to a system of Hill equations by means of Fourier series expansions. Instability regions of principal and combination parametric resonance are determined by use of the monodromy matrix. Numerical results are generated for boron-epoxy layered shells for various cases of pure axial, pure torsional, and combined loading. The width of the principal instability region is presented as a function of fiber ori entation for a laminate case. Stability diagrams are presented covering about 6 times the lowest natural frequency for various ratios of the applied axial and torsional frequencies.
How Does Cultural Collectivism Operate?
Authors: Bond Michael H. , Leung Kwok , Wan Kwok Choi
Published: March 2007

How is the collectivism of a culture related to the allocation of reward for task and maintenance inputs toward a group goal? To examine this question, students from the United States and Hong Kong were asked to read a scenario describing a group member who made high, medium or low task and maintenance contributions towards a group project for a university course. Subjects then rated their perceptions of, and behavioral intentions towards, this target person (TP). Task and maintenance contributions were linearly related to both types of dependent variable in each cultural group. However, the slope of this regression was more moderate for the Hong Kong Chinese than for the Americans where intentions to reward were concerned. This more egalitarian distribution of resources probably functions to promote the group cohesiveness valued by more collective cultures.
Multistrategy Approach to Cross-Cultural Research
Authors: Hui C. Harry , Triandis Harry C.
Published: March 2007

A multistrategy approach in cross-cultural research was used to refine 24 of Collins's (1974) locus of control items for use among mainstream and Hispanic subjects. Use of informants in the selection of items, a multidimensional scaling method, factor analysis, and a nomological validation were performed. The Collins Difficult-Easy World factor was the only item cluster that was clearly cross-culturally equivalent. The mainstream subjects and the Hispanics were not different on this factor. Two other item clusters may be cross-culturally equivalent (they passed one test but failed the other). Finally, the Politically Responsive-Unresponsive World cluster of items was found to be cross-culturally nonequivalent.
Gender Differences in Achievement and Affiliation Attributions
Authors: Chandler Theodore A. , Shama Deborah D. , Wolf Fredric M.
Published: March 2007

This study examines attributions (ability, effort, task, and luck) for success and failure in both achievement and affiliation domains across cultures as a means of evaluating whether gender differences are associated with cultural variations. Participants included 684 university students (314 males; 370 females)from India, Japan, South Africa, the United States, and Yugoslavia currently enrolled in teacher training, physicial science, and social science. While there were statistically significant differences between males and females across all five countries for achievement attributions to task and for the internal/ external dimension, the differences of attributions to ability, effort, and luck, as well as for the stable/unstable dimension, were not significant.
A West African Replication of the Four Card Problem
Authors: Zepp Raymond
Published: March 2007

Differences in results of the four card problem between language groups have led to the hypothesis that the more precisely one can express a concept in a given language, the easier it will be for subjects to acquire that concept. The Kpelle of Liberia and the Adjukru of the Ivory Coast, however, express inclusive disjunction in approximately the same way, but the Adjukru were found to have much more difficulty acquiring such concepts. Moreover, exclusive disjunction is expressed very precisely and simply in Adjukru, but the acquisition of such concepts was found to be very difficult indeed. The results suggest the inadequacy of the above hypothesis.
Metamemory and Motivation
Authors: Schneider Wolfgang , Borkowski John G. , Kurtz Beth E. , Kerwin Kathleen
Published: March 2007

The interrelationships among metamemory, intelligence, attributional beliefs, self-concept, and strategy use were investigated in 102 German and 91 American children. After pretest assessment, -children in the experimental conditions were trained to use a cluster-rehearsal strategy on a Sort Recall task. Posttraining assessments included tests of strategy maintenance, near-transfer, and task-related metamemorial knowledge. The two samples differed significantly on metamemorial, attributional, strategic, and performance variables. Causal modeling procedures showed that different causal models were required to explain relationships among the cognitive and personality/motivational variables in the two samples, with metamemory having the most consistent influence on strategy use.
Some Determinants of Conflict Avoidance
Authors: Leung Kwok
Published: March 2007

Most research on conflict resolution has ignored the fact that conflict avoidance may be used as a strategy of conflict resolution. To fill this gap, a study was designed to examine the determinants of the occurrence of conflict avoidance in two cultural groups. College students and residents of a community in the United States and in Hong Kong were asked to read a conflict scenario and indicate how likely they would be to pursue the conflict. A conflict was more likely to be pursued if the stakes involved were large and if the would-be disputant was from an out-group. Chinese subjects were less likely to pursue a conflict with an in-group disputant, and more likely to pursue a conflict with an out-group disputant, than were Americans. The cultural differences were interpreted as consistent with previous conceptualizations of cultural collectivism.
Substitutability in Foreign Policy
Authors: Starr Harvey
Published: March 2007

This article addresses two basic issues: (1) theoretical and methodological arguments as to why substitutability is important to the research enterprise in the study of world politics and (2) the theoretical and methodological problems in designing empirical research to demonstrate both the existence of substitutability and its impact on the choices of foreign policy tools and strategy. The first issue begins with the standard concern with substitutability: the problems that it creates for research design and how to deal with these problems. However, while these issues are important—and central to cumulation—substitutability has a broader impact on international relations theory through its relationship to opportunity and willingness and their interaction. Thus, substitutability is important in regard to the agent-structure perspective in general and particularly how it affects the choices of agents in two-level games.
Making Rules for Governing Global Commons
Authors: Bräuninger Thomas , König Thomas
Published: March 2007

A central goal of the Third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea 1973-1982 was to establish an international order for the use of the deep seabed beyond national jurisdiction. An overwhelming majority of countries signed the comprehensive convention, but several countries—including the industrialized G7 members Italy, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the former West Germany—rejected the new ocean regime in 1982. This article addresses the question of why some states opposed the 1982 convention by examining their preferences for alternative decision-making rules. A policy-seeking approach is used by deriving the preferences of 149 states for different decision-making rules from three components: states' preferences for policies, the working properties of different decision-making rules, and the location of the status quo. Findings show why the 1982 proposal failed to be supported by the main industrialized countries. Some evidence exists for the successful foundation of a multicameral rule in 1994.
Rebellion as a Quasi-Criminal Activity
Authors: Collier Paul
Published: March 2007

Economic models of rebellion usually treat it as a form of crime or banditry. However, the analogy is not developed. This article treats rebellion as a distinctive form of organized crime that differs from other crime in its objective, which is the predation of the rents on natural resource exports. Because such rents can be defended by government forces, rebel forces must be sufficiently large to defend themselves. This introduces a survival constraint that affects whether a rebellion is financially viable and how it reacts to increases in government forces and introduces an entry threshold. This threshold gives rise to a problem for the rebellion of attracting sufficient start-up finance. The predictions of the model are shown to be consistent with four stylized facts.
Effects of Global Information Feedback on Diversity
Authors: Shibanai Yasufumi , Yasuno Satoko , Ishiguro Itaru
Published: March 2007

Based on Axelrod's adaptive culture model, the effects of the distribution of global information feedback are examined in two simulations. The first model is the generalized other model, where the most preferred features are hypothesized to represent the mental model of the most ordinary person and have the same influential power as real neighbors. The second model is the filter model, where neighbors are influential only when their traits are concordant with the most common trait among whole agents. In both simulations, the global distribution of information facilitated an earlier convergence and maintenance of cultural diversity. These counterintuitive results suggest that information about a global society, for example mass media coverage, would provide support for a local minority.
Confusion of Group Interest and Self-Interest in Parochial Cooperation on Behalf of a Group
Authors: Baron Jonathan
Published: March 2007

People often sacrifice their self-interest for a group to which they belong, even when outsiders are harmed so that the sacrifice has no net benefit. Two experiments (conducted on the World Wide Web) suggest that people do this, in part, because they think that cooperation on behalf of the group is in their narrow self-interest; they show an enhanced self-interest illusion. One experiment found that the self-interest illusion is related to the enhanced tendency to cooperate on behalf of a group when the insiders' gain is the outsiders' loss. A second experiment found that the illusion (and the resulting parochial cooperation) was reduced when subjects were required to calculate all gains and losses.
Gender, Violence, and International Crisis
Authors: Caprioli Mary , Boyer Mark A.
Published: March 2007

Women work for peace, and men wage war—cooperative women, conflictual men. These images pervade conventional wisdom about the efficacy of women in leadership roles and decision-making environments, but imagery is not always grounded in reality. Feminist international relations literature is examined to understand how domestic gender equality may help predict a state's international crisis behavior. The authors use the record of female leaders as primary decision makers during international crises and then test the relationship between domestic gender equality and a state's use of violence internationally. The International Crisis Behavior (ICB) data set and multinomial logistic regression are used to test the level of violence exhibited during international crises by states with varying levels of domestic gender equality. Results show that the severity of violence in crisis decreases as domestic gender equality increases.
Trading Butter for Guns
Authors: Clark David H.
Published: March 2007

The international relations literature largely presumes that leaders engage in foreign policy substitution but does not provide a compelling theoretical explanation or convincing empirical evidence that substitution occurs. This article offers a theory of foreign policy choice based on the differences between private and public goods. It assumes that private goods and public goods are useful under different circumstances and conditions. Leaders select a policy based on political needs, so private- and public-goods approaches are employed alternatively depending on domestic situations: policies are substituted one for another. The trade-off between aggressive unilateral economic behavior and military conflict as the United States conducted foreign policy during the cold war is examined. Results show that leaders facing economic concerns and/or domestic opposition prefer trade aggression, a patently private-good-like policy, and substitute such policies in response to changing domestic stimuli.
Announcement, Credibility, and Turnout in Popular Rebellions
Authors: Bhavnani Ravi , Ross Michael
Published: March 2007

The dynamics of popular rebellions against authoritarian governments are examined by focusing on how the public's beliefs about the durability of an authoritarian government may have a self-fulfilling quality. This self-fulfilling quality gives both government and opposition leaders an incentive to make exaggerated “announcements” about the likelihood of a rebellion in the near future. Yet if their predictions are too far off, they will lose credibility, and their future announcements will carry less weight. The case of Indonesia, where the government's loss of credibility and the opposition's ability to exploit this weakness led to a popular uprising in 1998, is examined. A computational model consisting of a government, an opposition, and a population of citizens with heterogeneous preferences is developed to explore how announcements by the opposition and the government can influence the likelihood of rebellion. Results suggest that when the government's credibility is high, the opposition can do little to inspire rebellions; however, a small loss of credibility, if capitalized on by the opposition, markedly boosts the chances of a rebellion. When the public's underlying preferences are polarized, the likelihood of a rebellion drops sharply.
Social Mobility and Intergroup Antagonism
Authors: Silver Burton B.
Published: March 2007

This paper reevaluates certain aspects of Dahrendorf's conflict theory in relation to social mobility. Specifically, the relationship between the degree of openness or closedness of the mobility opportunity structure of society and the degree of intergroup antagonism is examined. A game simulation is initiated whereby the researcher is able to create simulated situations of varying mobility opportunity and observe, by means of pre- and posttest questionnaires, the relative antagonism between groups within the situation and the participants' latent antagonism outside the simulated situation. The findings provide support for Dahrendorf's hypothesis, but also indicate that further dynamics are involved in the structure of mobility systems.
Simple Model of Negotiation
Authors: Bartos Otomar J.
Published: March 2007

The objective of the paper is to state a simple theory of negotiation, one that is both realistic and testable. The basis of this theory is the notion, stated most clearly by sociologist George Homans, that men strive to create and maintain the conditions of justice. To this notion is added the fact that the well-known Nash solution to bargaining games not only is consistent with Homan's notion of justice but also is reached frequently in experimental negotiations. Given these ingredients, the paper hypothesizes that negotiators view the midpoint between their past demands and offers as just and strive to achieve it. Various implications of this hypothesis are explored.
Fun and Games
Authors: Schlenker Barry R. , Bonoma Thomas V.
Published: March 2007

The validity of gaming techniques has come under increasing attack in recent years The present article examines claims for and criticisms of the use of games in the study of conflict. Gaming proponents have cited four major functions of games: (a) an analogy, or model, of actual conflict situations, (b) a heuristic device to provide new ways of thinking, (c) a device to separate rational solutions to conflict from those affected by psychological and sociological factors, and (d) a simple experimental tool to test theoretically relevant hypotheses about conflict. Critics have attacked the use of games by pointing out (a) the triviality of game results, (b) a possible lack of reproducibility of the findings, (c) the difficulty of relating game choices to motivation, (d) the inappropriateness of many generalizations made from such studies, (e) the nondynamic nature of the game situation, and (f) the lack of isomorphism between game situations and naturally occurnng conflicts. Examination of these advantages and criticisms allowed their differentiation into questions of internal validity, external validity, and ecological (real world) validity The most potent criticisms of games are directed at the ecological validity issue. It is the contention of the present paper that ecological validity raises questions for the evaluation of theories of conflict, not for the evaluation of gaming paradigms that permit the study of conflict.
State Behavior in International Crisis
Authors: Brecher Michael
Published: March 2007

This article presents a stress-coping-choice model of state behavior in international crisis. Competing definitions of crisis are first examined, with special reference to the differences between the Hermann and ICB definitions. Thereafter the model is specified-notably the independent variable, stress induced by perceptions of value threat, time pressure, and the probability of war-and the dependent variable, choice. The central research question is the effects of changing crisis-induced stress on coping and on choice. A multifaceted methodology is delineated. I he model is then applied to the behavior of one state in two international crises, Israel in 1967 and 1973. A set of 23 hypotheses drawn from empirical studies of the 1914, Korean War, and Cuban Missile crises is assessed with the findings from these Middle East cases. More than two-thirds are supported, suggesting the possible existence of common attributes in international crisis behavior, relating to information processing, consultation patterns, decisional forums, and the consideration of alternatives. Finally, new propositions about coping by decision makers of states under conditions of escalating and deescalating stress are generated from the findings indicated in this inquiry.
Internationalized Civil War
Authors: Rasler Karen
Published: March 2007

This study involves a longitudinal investigation of the short-term and long-term effects of the Syrian military intervention (June 1976) on Lebanese domestic conflict. The inquiry also includes an analysis of the strategic timing of the intervention in Lebanon. Variables such as the level of Lebanese domestic conflict, social polarization, and linkages of internal-external cooperation are examined as possible precipitating factors. The study reveals that the Syrian intervention increased the short-term conflict (June-October 1976) in Lebanon, but ultimately it was responsible for an overall decline in civil strife throughout most of the country (with the exception of southern Lebanon). Moreover, the Syrian military action did not occur in the midst of extreme Lebanese domestic conflict and social polarization. Rather, the Syrian action occurred when civil strife, social polarization, and Lebanese-Syrian cooperation were declining. In the final analysis, the findings reflect the necessity for better specification of the causal linkages between civil war and foreign military intervention.
Fluctuations in Soviet Defense Spending
Authors: Nincic Miroslav
Published: March 2007

Despite our efforts to understand the dynamics of the arms race, we know little about the causes of short-term fluctuations in USSR military spending. This article attempts to shed new light on the domestic causes of these fluctuations, with special emphasis on Soviet economic conditions. It is found that annual shifts in military budgets are responsive to the magnitude of the economic burden that defense outlays represent in a given year and to the stage of the five-year planning cycle the Soviet economy happens to be in. With respect to the latter, the military sector fares least well relative to the civilian sector at the beginning and end of the five-year period, but compensates for this toward the middle of the cycle.
Some Missing Pieces of the C3I Puzzle
Authors: Brewer Garry D. , Bracken Paul
Published: March 2007

Excessive attention over the years to issues contained within the confines of the concept of the strategic balance have had notable consequences—generally by limiting attention to but one perspective on an extraordinarily complex and dynamic problem and specifically by ignoring critical command and control aspects of the whole. This article elaborates the theme of neglect and its consequences and then identifies and assembles many of the missing, but essential, pieces of the “C3I Puzzle.”
Dealing with Conflict
Authors: Fogg Richard Wendell
Published: March 2007

The creative, peaceful class of qualitative approaches for resolving and settling conflicts is delineated. A repertoire of several dozen such approaches is given in general enough terms to apply at the interpersonal, interorganizational, and international levels. An example from international relations is given for each approach. The creative, peaceful class and the repertoire can provide hypotheses for researchers, a checklist for negotiators, and a broadening of vision for the public. The repertoire is of particular use for widening the range of options perceived by closed-minded people before they walk out of a negotiating session or turn to violence. Examples of the repertoire include Osgood's GRIT and Fisher's fractionation.
Volunteer's Dilemma
Authors: Diekmann Andreas
Published: March 2007

A conflict game simulating social traps in which a collective good can be provided by a volunteer is discussed and some solution concepts are analyzed. There is a greater incentive for “free riding” than for the production of the collective good at the cost of the volunteer. However, if everybody defects, all players will lose. Such a result is frequently produced by “diffusion of responsibility” as described by Darley and Latané (1968). In contrast to other social traps, a dominant strategy does not exist. Also, the mixed-equilibrium strategy yields very low payoffs. The expected gain is not greater than the payoff achieved by the nonequilibrium maximum strategy. Superrationality might be a way out of the trap. However, this concept lacks the desirable equilibrium property. Only in the free communication version of the game can a definitive answer to the question of a rational strategy be given.
Arms Races and War Initiation
Authors: Mayer Thomas F.
Published: March 2007

Intriligator and Brito argue that certain arms races can lead to peace and certain disarming races can lead to war. They support this position with a formal model of the relationship between weapons levels and war initiation. This article evaluates and criticizes the Intriligator-Brito model. The results of their model are shown to depend upon questionable assumptions both about the conditions under which nuclear attack might be initiated or deterred and about the nature of nuclear war itself. Two sets of alternatives to the Intriligator-Brito (I-B) model are developed. In contrast to the Intriligator-Brito analysis, most of the topologies generated by the alternative models suggest that arms races are unlikely to yield stable peace. The issue of disarmament is more complicated. If security is identified with the ability to inflict painful retribution on the enemy, then situations of near complete disarmament are necessarily hazardous. However, the main implication of the alternative models is that mutual disarmament—at least mutual disarmament to moderate weapons levels—will not increase the chance of war and may well diminish it. At least one of the alternative models points out that no situation of mutual deterrence may be possible. Arms races may not always lead to war nor disarmament to peace, but considerable circumspection is needed when drawing policy inferences from war initiation models of the Intriligator-Brito genre because the results are highly sensitive to the underlying assumptions.
The Effects of Decision Framing and Others' Behavior on Cooperation in a Social Dilemma
Authors: Fleishman John A.
Published: March 2007

In a decision situation, the choice alternatives can be described, or framed, with respect to different reference points, such as gains or losses. This study investigates the effects of decision framing in a social dilemma. Subjects, in groups of four or five persons, participated in a simulated social dilemma. Two factors were manipulated: decision framing (either in terms of giving to a collective good or taking from a collective good), and others' behavior (whether other group members had apparently cooperated a little or a great deal on the first trial). Subjects conformed to others' behavior when they could take from a collective good, but they diffused responsibility and acted contrary to others' behavior when they could give to a public good. These results imply that models of choice behavior in social dilemmas should be expanded to include framing effects, as well as other departures from strict rationality. Moreover, the results suggest that findings from social dilemma research in which subjects can contribute to buy a public good may not be consistent with findings from studies in which subjects can take resources from a common pool.
Polarity, Power, and Risk in International Disputes
Authors: Scarborough Grace Iusi
Published: March 2007

This study sets forth a theoretical model of decision making in crisis situations, specifying the manner in which polarity, power, and risk taking enter into the decision calculus. It is argued that the constraints and advantages imposed on a nation by the polarity structure of the system and the power capabilities of the disputants, when filtered through the risk propensity of the decision maker, offer a powerful explanation of the way in which a conflict will be resolved. The hypothesis derived from the model is empirically supported. This support suggests that national leaders calculate the potential value of relevant poles in the manner specified and the difference in capabilities of the two nations in dispute when making decisions in crisis situations. Further, the risk-taking orientation of a decision maker is critical in determining the perceptions of these factors.
Conflict and Limits of Power
Authors: Matsubara Nozomu
Published: March 2007

Since Dahl's definition, every effort to measure power has aimed simultaneously to conceptualize and to substantiate the meaning of power. However, there is a substantial lack of rigorous and concrete models of power as a basis to discuss various characteristics of power in international politics. In this model, the “limit of power” is defined and measured. Axelrod's model of a “bully” suggests a prototype of power seeker, but Rapoport and Chammah's empirical data on intrinsic defection probability play the critical role in making it measurable in Dahl's sense. The distribution of power as related to Axelrod's conflict of interest is neither directly nor inversely proportional to C.I.. Three phases of C.I.—mild, moderate, and severe—are shown to characterize three important types of international political and political economy systems: alliance, interdependence, and bipolarity, respectively. Other important characteristics of power are formulated, as the rate of collective goods consumed, credibility, the acquisitive and punitive efficacies of power, and characteristics of the limit of power are reviewed in comparison with the Shapley-Shubik power index.
Stories Remembered and Forgotten
Authors: Bobrow Davis B.
Published: March 2007

Previous and recent writings on the Cuban missile crisis call into question the sorts of history that can and should be available for international security policy and analysis. The capacity of history is seriously limited with respect to evaluations of crisis outcomes, prescriptive and cautionary maxims, narrative completeness, and cause-and-effect inferences. Yet history as remembered is a valuable and inherent part of national security thinking. Ways are suggested to treat history to gain more from it. These principles apply at least as much to modern decision technology uses of history as to more traditional approaches.
Extensions of Value Solutions in Constant-Sum Non-Sidepayment Games
Authors: Michener H. Andrew , Salzer Mark S. , Richardson Greg D.
Published: March 2007

This article defines two new solution concepts for non-sidepayment games - the λ-transfer nucleolus and the λ-transfer disruption value - and reports the results of an experiment testing their predictive accuracy against that of a third solution concept, the well-known λ-transfer value (Shapley, 1969). The test was based on data from a laboratory experiment utilizing five-person, two-choice games that were constant-sum in normal form. Goodness-of-fit results show that the λ-transfer value and the λ-transfer disruption value were about equally accurate in predicting the observed payoffs to players in these games; both of these solutions were more accurate than the λ-transfer nucleolus.
Foreign Policy and the Evaluation of Presidential Candidates
Authors: Nincic Miroslav , Hinckley Barbara
Published: March 2007

This article applies recent work on social cognition to examine the impact of foreign policy on presidential elections, particularly on the evaluation of incumbent candidates. The authors propose that specific issue evaluations shape the public's overall evaluation of candidates and that the overall evaluation in turn shapes the public's voting decision. This two-step hypothesis is tested with aggregate and individual-level data for both foreign policy and economic evaluations of incumbent performance and for the very different elections of 1980 and 1984. The results support the hypothesized two-step process at both aggregate and individual levels of analysis and for all categories of party identifiers. Foreign policy issues not only shape public evaluation of candidates but their influence does not compare unfavorably with that of economic circumstances. The results provide new evidence that the outcome of presidential elections is influenced, albeit indirectly, by foreign policy.
Value Differences and Conflict Resolution
Authors: Druckman Daniel , Broome Benjamin J.
Published: March 2007

Effects of familiarity and liking on negotiating perceptions and behaviors are explored in two experiments, one focusing on prenegotiation expectations and perceptions (experiment 1), the other on negotiation processes and outcomes (experiment 2). Both experiments were embedded in the context of a simulation of conflict between groups resembling the Greek and Turkish communities in Cyprus. Results obtained in the two experiments showed different effects for the familiarity and liking variables: Analytically distinct effects for these variables on prenegotiation perceptions contrasted with the combined effects on negotiating behavior and postnegotiation perceptions. In experiment 1, liking influenced expected movement from initial positions, perceptions of the opponent, and types of strategies prepared for the negotiation; familiarity had its primary impact on perceptions of the situation as being conducive to agreement. Results of experiment 2 showed that reducing either liking or familiarity served to reduce willingness to reach compromise agreements, whether actual or desired. These results suggest that the positive effects obtained for a facilitation condition reported in an earlier study by Druckman, Broome, and Korper (1988) may have been due to the combination of familiarity and liking produced by the experimental manipulation. Implications of the results obtained in both experiments are discussed in terms of changing expectations and uncertainty reduction. Further analyses of negotiating process dynamics would elucidate the difference between reaching agreements in the short run and developing relationships between groups over the long term.
A Portfolio Diversification Model of Alliances
Authors: Conybeare John A. C.
Published: March 2007

The theory of finance demonstrates that diversified investment portfolios produce superior combinations of risk and return, and that investors may choose a portfolio reflecting their preferred mix of risk and return. These techniques may be applied to military alliances. The rate of return and risk of an ally follows a positive linear relationship, as predicted by capital asset pricing theory. Random diversification of allies will, as with investment portfolios, reduce the country-unique components of alliance risk toward that which is inherent in the system as a whole. Some alliances will be more efficient at producing greater return and lower risk. The most efficient alliances will be those in which variations in ally effort move in opposite directions. Development of the demand side of portfolio analysis may predict which alliances are optimal, and therefore most likely to form. These principles are applied to the Triple Entente and Triple Alliance between 1879 and 1914. It is suggested that the Entente had superior efficiency characteristics and that ally choices were consistent with demand patterns.