bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
An Overview of Management Science and Information Systems
Authors: Beged-Dov Aharon G.
Published: November 2008

This paper does five things: (1) relates earlier developments in management thought to modern organization views; (2) discusses some aspects of decision making, the systems concept, and man/machine systems; (3) identifies the overall goals which an integrated information system should serve; (4) suggests an approach to be followed by information system planners; and (5) attempts to foresee how a widespread use of information systems may affect organization structure and management practice.
Decision Making, Information Systems, and the Role of the Systems Analyst
Authors: Kostetsky Oleh
Published: November 2008

A dynamic interaction exists between a firm and its business environment, due to both physical and psychological changes. This necessitates a system to generate a sequence of decisions which will create a sequence of acts modifying the forces within the firm-environment interaction so as to maximize the probability that the firm's basic objectives will be met.
Production Smoothing of Economic Lot Sizes with Non-Decreasing Requirements
Authors: Zangwill Willard I.
Published: November 2008

This paper considers the problem of finding a production schedule, in terms of how much to produce in each period, that minimizes the total cost of supplying known market requirements for a single product. The costs include a concave production cost, a concave inventory cost, and a piecewise concave cost of changing the production level from one period to the next. Assuming that there is no backlogging of requirements and that the market requirements are monotone increasing, i.e., not decreasing from period to period, the form of the minimum cost production schedule is obtained. This form is then exploited in a dynamic programming algorithm to provide an efficient means of exactly determining the minimum cost schedule. An interesting calculation reducing theorem is also developed to further enhance the efficiency of the dynamic programming algorithm.
Bias in Pert Project Completion Time Calculations for a Real Network
Authors: Klingel A. R.
Published: November 2008

Among network techniques recently widely employed in program management, Pert is addressed to the problem of assessing the manager's chances of completing a project on time. Theory and monte carlo simulation have shown that the Pert method yields results which are biased high, and this paper discusses a real example involving conditions under which the bias is very large. The manager is thus grossly misled into thinking his chances are very good, when in reality they are very poor. If the manager's network has multiple parallel paths with relatively equal means and large variances, Pert calculations will be considerably biased. Simulation can be utilized to estimate the distribution of completion time in this case, and guide the manager in appraising and controlling his chances of completion.
A Comparison of Short and Medium Range Statistical Forecasting Methods
Authors: Kirby Robert M.
Published: November 2008

Exponential Smoothing, Moving Average, and Least Squares forecasting models were tested by simulating their operation on seven years of actual data for various sewing machine product groups. The relative accuracy of the forecasts varied according to the length of the period being forecasted and the characteristics of the data. Tests were also conducted on synthetic series designed to isolate the cyclical, trend and noise components. For the series tested, the Exponential Smoothing and Moving Average methods were about equal in overall performance for intermediate range forecasts (next six months' demand). For the short range (next month's demand), the Exponential Smoothing gave slightly better over-all results. The difference in relative performance between the Exponential Smoothing and Moving Average methods for intermediate versus short range forecasts appears to be due to a subcomponent identified as “caused noise.”
Optimal Issuing Policies in Inventory Management—I
Authors: Pierskalla William
Published: November 2008

The general inventory depletion problem can be described as the problem of finding an issue policy which maximizes or minimizes a prescribed function when the inventory itself is changing in quality over time. Earlier authors writing on this subject have placed many restrictive assumptions on the model. The assumption of one demand source withdrawing items from the stockpile is removed and the case of several demand sources is considered. Next, it is assumed that there is a constant penalty cost, p, each time an item is issued. It can be described as an installation or work stoppage cost. Finally, the assumption that the field life, L(S), is a concave or convex function is removed. A more general type of function is considered. L(S) is a concave nonincreasing function for Sε [0, t] and L(S) = L(t) = c > 0 for S ≧ t. When L(S) has this form, it provides a good approximation to the general decreasing S-shaped curve. In all of the foregoing cases, optimal policies or bounds on the optimal policies are presented.
A Program of Research in Business Planning
Authors: Ansoff H. Igor , Brandenburg Richard C.
Published: November 2008

The purpose of this paper is to outline a program of research which is needed to improve the state of the art of business planning. We have approached this task by relating planning to management science on one hand, and to certain areas of descriptive knowledge on the other. From these relations we have constructed a comprehensive program for research on planning. Some parts of this program are being actively pursued, some are still in need of attention. It is our hope that this paper will contribute to a two-fold purpose: that it will help give the business planner a sense of unique identity, and that it will provide him with a research program which he can pursue in strengthening this identity.
The Use of Mathematical Models in Plant Maintenance Decision Making
Authors: Turban Efraim
Published: November 2008

This paper describes and discusses the results of a national survey [1] on the use of mathematical models in plant maintenance decision making. The major points considered are: (1) The extent to which such models are used, (2) their potential financial benefits, and (3) the determinants of their use. Of special interest is the finding that these determinants are similar to those involved in the general problem of OR models in imiplementation, despite the technological character of maintenance decisions.
The Convergence Technique: A Method for the Planning and Programming of Research Efforts
Authors: Carrese Louis M. , Baker Carl G.
Published: November 2008

The difficulties encountered in attempts to apply directly some of the standard network analysis techniques to the planning of research programs are discussed. The particularized requirements for a planning system suitable for research efforts are identified, and a technique developed specifically for the planning and programming of research efforts is described. Basically, the technique involves the formulation of a series of flows and arrays depicting major program elements and individual projects, sequentially ordered on the basis of research logic, and graphically represented by a matrix which relates research performance to resources required (including personnel, materials, equipment and facilities, and funds). Because of the nature of research, the technique was developed to avoid the formulation of tight networks with sharp time-to-completion estimates for each project. The application of this technique to two biomedical research programs of the National Cancer Institute is discussed.
Some Organizational Factors Related to the Effectiveness of Management Science Groups in Industry
Authors: Rubenstein Albert H. , Radnor Michael , Baker Norman R. , Heiman David R. , Mccolly John B.
Published: November 2008

The organizational factors which can influence the “effectiveness” of a management science activity are discussed in this paper. The discussion is based on some preliminary findings from a series of studies, performed by Northwestern University, on the life histories of OR/MS groups in 66 large U.S. companies.

Many companies could be observed having difficulties in absorbing their new management science functions. Such factors as the level of managerial support, client receptivity, organizational and technical capability of an OR/MS group (i.e., the type and quality of its personnel and leadership), the organizational location, group reputation, the relevance of projects performed, and other variables are noted as being significant in determining effectiveness.

How well established a group was in the organization is identified as being a critical factor in how these variables would influence the potential for a group's success or failure. This level of “establishment” is defined in terms of four life-cycle phases, namely, Pre-birth, Introductory, Transitional and Maturity. A case study demonstrating the appearance of these phases is presented.

Successful implementation of a group's output is discussed as a possible measure of effectiveness. Client “receptivity” is related to the freedom permitted to a group, by their clients, to select projects, gather data, and implement proposals.
The Role of the Subconscious in Executive Decision-Making
Authors: Ferber Robert C.
Published: November 2008

Management science is concerning itself a great deal with decision theory at present. The latter provides a framework for the idealized, rational decision-maker.

In actual fact, however, an executive's performance lies on a continuum between that of two people, one of whom makes rational and the other rationalized decisions.

This article examines the role of the subconscious in executive decision-making and gives and discusses some extreme examples. Some controls are discussed on the vagaries of the decisions actually reached. The conclusion is that management science, and particularly decision theory, should concern itself far more with the effect of the subconscious on decisions. Some criteria for possible measurement are suggested.
Critique of: “The Role of the Subconscious in Executive Decision-Making”
Authors: Longman Kenneth A.
Published: November 2008

The subject of subconscious effects on executive decision-making is one quite worthy of the attention of management scientists. If we read our own journal, we find very little attention paid to psychological questions in management. The restriction of interest to the subconscious is, of course, a narrow view of the psychological questions which should concern us, but it is a reasonable starting place.
A Finite Horizon Dynamic Inventory Model with a Stockout Constraint
Authors: Beesack Paul R.
Published: November 2008

A finite horizon, periodic review, dynamic inventory model for a single item with a stockout constraint is considered in this paper, and the optimal ordering policy is obtained. The discrete case is dealt with, and linear purchase and holding costs are assumed together with a fixed order cost, all costs being discounted back to the beginning of the first period. A fixed delivery lead time is assumed, and backlogging of unsatisfied demand is required. The stockout constraint is that the ratio of the expected number of stockouts to the expected demand over the finite horizon not exceed a preassigned fraction. The optimal ordering policy is obtained by the usual dynamic programming technique, using a Lagrange multiplier to handle the stockout constraint.
A Stochastic Inventory Model for Rented Equipment
Authors: Whisler William D.
Published: November 2008

An inventory of rented equipment is studied. Equipment is withdrawn from the inventory by customers who use it for a length of time and then return it. Decisions about the amount of equipment to rent can be made at certain points in time. This paper describes a policy for making these decisions which minimizes expected costs. The dynamic programming model formulated is different than the usual ones considered in the literature because the inventory level can fluctuate up or down and convexity of the cost function is not important since simple optimal policies can be found when the cost function is nonconvex.
Labor and Machine Limited Production Systems
Authors: Nelson Rosser T.
Published: November 2008

A number of investigations have been performed with models of machine limited production systems. In the main, the work has centered upon evaluation of alternative queue disciplines. In this paper, a model is proposed for studying systems in which both machines and labor are limiting resources. The proposed model includes several design and control factors which offer promising subjects for research. These factors relate to labor and job assignment procedures and control, labor force training, and system flexibility as determined by equipment purchasing and employment policies. Results are reported for an initial set of experiments in which the labor assignment procedure and the size of the labor force are variables, and for two subsequent sets of experiments in which the labor assignment procedure, the degree of centralized control of labor assignment, the job routing characteristics of the network, and the labor efficiency matrix are variables. Suggestions are given for further research.
A New Model for Stochastic Linear Programming
Authors: Evers William H.
Published: November 2008

The linear programming formulation with random variation in the coefficient matrix is considered. A new model is proposed in which the random variation in the constraints is removed and terms dependent upon the distributions associated with the random constraints introduced into the objective function. The new objective function may be interpreted quite naturally as the sum of the original costs, the expected shortage (or overage) and the set-up cost.

Comparisons made between the solutions of the linear program using the mean values of the distributions and the solution using the model show it is sometimes extremely costly to tacitly set the elements of the linear program at their mean values.
Communications to the Editor—A Counterexample in Game Theory
Authors: Lucas W. F.
Published: November 2008

This note describes a 5-person von Neumann-Morgenstern game which has a unique solution that is strictly larger than its core. This game provides a counterexample for the following two conjectures stated by L. S. Shapley in [Kuhn, H. W., ed. Report of an Informal Conference on the Theory of n-Person Games, held at Princeton University, March 20–21, 1953 (dittoed).].
Ranking Procedures and Subjective Probability Distributions
Authors: Smith Lee H.
Published: November 2008

For the most part, modern management has become gradually conditioned to techniques involving the use of subjective probability distributions. In spite of this conditioning, there remain a few who are still somewhat skeptical with regard to the use of such distributions. However, in many instances principal objections are leveled, not toward subjectivity per se, but, rather, toward “nebulous subjectivity.” Many managers still associate an air of mysticism with the development of subjective probability distributions. This is not surprising in view of the facts that (1) relatively little material in pertinent literature is devoted to discussions of methods for deriving subjective distributions, and (2) a large percentage of those discussions which do appear can best be characterized as hand-waving approaches.

The purpose of the present article is two-fold. First, the article proposes a specific, logical, and consistent procedure for deriving subjective probability distributions. The procedure, which involves the use of statistical ranking techniques, is exemplified for the purpose of clarity. Second, and possibly even more important than the first objective, the procedure is set forth in the hope that it will stimulate further activity toward development of improved methods for deriving subjective distributions.
The Growth Period Decision
Authors: Bierman Harold
Published: November 2008

Economists have for many years been interested in the problem of finding the optimum investment period for an appreciating or growing asset. Two basic solutions have been offered: maximization of the present value of the asset's anticipated earnings stream (for example, recommended by Irving Fisher) and maximization of the asset's internal rate of return (for example, recommended by Kenneth Boulding). This paper discusses the results of using the present value and rate of return procedures and suggests a desirable modification to the present value approach recommended by Fisher.

The examples of this paper will be in the context of the timber industry, however the models apply to any economic situation where the value of an asset is increasing through time. A classical example is the aging of wine. Another practical example is the growth of cattle. In addition, it should be noted that the difficulties with the internal rate of return that are illustrated, are applicable to a wide range of business decisions.
Management Science in University Operation
Authors: Rath Gustave J.
Published: November 2008

The major investment in education has led to a major interest in the analysis of universities. Industrial engineering departments and computing centers have been bringing new technologies to bear on scheduling, sectioning and modeling of schools. Institutional research organizations are beginning to analyze and evaluate schools. Current analysis of these fields shows that much work is required on operations and a breakthrough is needed on the measurement of educational quality.
Minimum Concave Cost Flows in Certain Networks
Authors: Zangwill Willard I.
Published: November 2008

The literature is replete with analyses of minimum cost flows in networks for which the cost of shipping from node to node is a linear function. However, the linear cost assumption is often not realistic. Situations in which there is a set-up charge, discounting, or efficiencies of scale give rise to concave functions. Although concave functions can be minimized by an exhaustive search of all the extreme points of the convex feasible region, such an approach is impractical for all but the simplest of problems. In this paper some theorems are developed which explicitly characterize the extreme points for certain single commodity networks. By exploiting this characterization algorithms are developed that determine the minimum concave cost solution for networks with a single source and a single destination, for acyclic single source multiple destination networks, and for acyclic single destination multiple source networks. An interesting theorem then establishes that for either single source or single destination networks the multi-commodity case can be reduced to the single commodity case. Applications to the concave warehouse problem, a single product production and inventory model, a multi-product production and inventory model, and a plant location problem are included.
A Study of Consumer Behavior by use of Competitive Business Games
Authors: Symonds Gifford H.
Published: November 2008

The behavior of consumers, labor, investors, and community members in a simulated society has been studied by use of competitive business games. The model for the simulation represents a closed economic system with firms in an oligopolistic industry operating by a set of anticipatory decision rules and a number of household communities whose decisions are made by players who identify themselves with the welfare of their communities. The product price and product sales each period are determined by equating the aggregate supply function of the firms and the aggregate demand function of the household communities. The wage rates and employment each period are determined by matching offers of the firms with offers of the household communities.

The game results show that some regulations were required in order to maintain a satisfactory consumption level. Regulations included wage control, taxation of firms and households, dividend policy and assistance for destitute household communities. It was found that change in employment was related to anticipated change in wage rate and to household's monetary assets, and that change in product demand was related to anticipated change in product price and to past consumption.
Test Marketing: A Perturbation in the Market Place
Authors: Lipstein Benjamin
Published: November 2008

New products achieve positions in the market place by disrupting existing brand loyalty and switching patterns. Test markets can be viewed as going through phases of equilibrium prior to new product introduction, disequilibrium during introduction and return to equilibrium. This process is described by transition matrices of brand loyalty and brand switching. A method of analysis is developed which provides indices of the market's stability prior to new product entry, disequilibrium created by the introduction and the market's return to stability. This enables marketing management to judge the impact of introduction as well as evaluate test market results in approximately half the length of time normally required by conventional methods.
The Management of Scientific Manpower
Authors: Saxberg Borje O. , Slocum John W.
Published: November 2008

Management control of professional employees such as engineers and scientists leads to a state of conflict in the business organization. To management, the control of human resources implies the limiting of individualistic behavior of subordinates in order to realize the objectives of the firm. In contrast, the industrial scientist, even as a subordinate in an organizational hierarchy, believes that control as applied to him should allow for autonomy and independence as attributes of professionalism in his work environment.

In this paper we examine various approaches to managerial control— traditional, bureaucratic, cybernetic, and behavioral—and their application to the engineer-scientist as the carrier of professional values in the work culture. A successful manager in this environment must create a work climate without emphasis on formal mechanisms of control and direction. Recent research indicates that to this effect optimum supervisory behavior involves neither excessive direction nor autonomy but frequent interaction with industrial scientists as participants in decision making.

We conclude that management of industrial scientists in relation to their professional values should take place within the networks of informal organizational relationships. It involves the application of normative managerial control based upon the exercise of self-imposed sanctions by the industrial scientists themselves, and of colleague authority by their managers relying on communication and information for compliance with organization's objectives and goals.
Parallel Strategies in Development Projects
Authors: Abernathy William J. , Rosenbloom Richard S.
Published: November 2008

It is common in R & D to identify and explore several approaches to a particular objective so that the best approach may be chosen. The outcome of any approach is uncertain; hence, it is difficult to choose the best one at an early date. To deal with this uncertainty, two or more approaches to the objective may be continued in parallel until a clear choice can be made, i.e., a parallel strategy. Such a strategy can provide better information for a decision, maintain options, or hedge against the occurrence of an unsatisfactory outcome.

This report addresses the project manager's problem of deciding when to use or continue a parallel strategy. It reports the results of studies of actual projects and of a digital simulation analysis of a model appropriate to the structure of the decision as it is faced in practice. It identifies the information requirements for a sound choice between parallel and sequential strategies and the consequence of choosing a strategy on the basis of incomplete information. The report demonstrates the feasibility of collecting the requisite economic data in actual projects and suggests that it is costly for project managers to ignore such data.
An Application of Chance Constrained Programming to Portfolio Selection in a Casualty Insurance Firm
Authors: Agnew N. H. , Agnew R. A. , Rasmussen J. , Smith K. R.
Published: November 2008

The problem of portfolio selection is discussed with special emphasis on the casualty insurance firm. A single period optimisation model is developed in which expected return is maximized subject to a chance constraint requiring return to be greater than some lower bound with a stipulated probability. It is demonstrated that this approach provides an operational means of selecting a Baumol efficient portfolio. Additional chance constraints are used to maintain the firm's liquidity. The evaluation of optimal portfolios is discussed and the evaluators for the portfolio model are developed. Finally, an example is provided.
Statistical Estimation Problems in Inventory Control
Authors: Hayes R. H.
Published: November 2008

In this paper we define and illustrate the use of the concept of "Expected Total Operating Cost" (ETOC) in dealing with inventory policy estimation when the cost structure is piecewise linear. We show, through examples, that estimates based on classical procedures are often unsatisfactory when viewed in terms of ETOC, and derive improved estimates. Then we look at the problem from a Bayesian point of view and derive the prior distributions (within a particular class) that are implied by the adoption of these superior procedures.
Optimal Dividend and Investment Policies for a Self-Financing Business Enterprise
Authors: Manne Alan S.
Published: November 2008

For a self-financing business enterprise (or for an underdeveloped economy subject to constraints on the availability of foreign investment funds), three theorems are presented. Each result is based upon the assumption that the firm's investment opportunities follow constant returns-to-scale, and are of the “point input—stream output” type.

Theorem 1 shows that if the enterprise is attempting to maximize a linear function of the cash dividends paid out, the optimization model cannot explain a readily observed phenomenon: both investment expenditures and also cash dividends at the same point in time.

Theorems 2 and 3 explore the consequences of supposing that the maximand is a concave, nonlinear function of the cash dividends paid out, and that the optimal solution consists of positive investment expenditures over time. (The optimal policy may or may not call for positive dividends during each time period.) Then Theorem 2 shows that the optimal dual variable price ratios are determined uniquely by the set of investment opportunities available, and Theorem 3 shows that the optimal policy can be evaluated numerically through optimization of the original utility function subject to a specially constructed single linear equality constraint on the cash withdrawals. An economic decentralization interpretation is attached to this auxiliary maximization problem.
Communications to the Editor—Exponential Forecasting: Some New Variations
Authors: McCormick Garth P.
Published: November 2008

Exponential forecasting or smoothing models are presented which take into account all combinations of trend and cyclical effects in additive and multiplicative form. Although other authors have hinted that the proposed models existed, no one has ever presented them in comprehensive form. This paper presents the nine possible models in graphical form and summarizes them by one summary formula.
A Conceptual Framework for Urban Planning Models
Authors: Kilbridge Maurice D. , O'Block Robert P. , Teplitz Paul V.
Published: November 2008

The authors present a framework for the analysis of models which have been designed for, or used in, urban physical and economic planning. The models have been distinguished by their basic characteristics, rather than on the basis of their applications. Four basic characteristics are identified: (1) the subject of the model; (2) its function; (3) its underlying theory; and (4) its method. Besides providing a conceptual framework for the analysis and development of urban planning models, this conceptual scheme serves as the basis of a classification scheme which allows the study and comparison of existing models. Such a system is presented as an illustration of the process of model analysis using this conceptual framework.
A Sampling Study of the Properties of Estimators of Transition Probabilities
Authors: Lee T. C. , Judge G. G. , Cain R. L.
Published: November 2008

In this paper, the sampling experiment approach is used to evaluate the performance of alternative estimators that may be employed to estimate the transition matrix for a Markov probability model when only the aggregated data, reflecting the proportion of the sample in each state over a sequence of trials, are known. In addition, the experiments provide some initial information relative to the sampling properties of restricted estimators when time series data are used.
Management Science Applications in the Bell System
Authors: Hardgrave W. W. , Mac Williams W. H.
Published: November 2008

Bell System applications of management science are reviewed, with examples, under three categories: (a) Facilities—providing the physical communications plant, (b) Operations—concerning both the plant and the organization, and (c) Marketing—determining services to be offered and rates.

The facility applications have been the most studied, tend to be the simplest, and have yielded effective engineering solutions using computer programs for many recurring problems.

Operations problems tend to be more difficult both to formulate and to solve, and their large size and complexity have frequently led to approximation in both formulation and solution.

Marketing2 problems usually show complex interactions among the level of demand, the plant and services required to satisfy this demand, and the resulting cost of the services. This area has major difficulties in formulation and solution and has been the least studied of the three. However, the marketing area is likely to become the most important one in the future, primarily because of its basic relation to determining the direction of the business.
An Algorithm for Separable Nonconvex Programming Problems
Authors: Falk James E. , Soland Richard M.
Published: November 2008

In this paper we present an algorithm for solving mathematical programming problems of the form: Find x = (x1,…, xn) to minimize ∑φi(xi) subject to x ∈ G and l ≤ x ≤ L. Each φi is assumed to be lower semicontinuous, possibly nonconvex, and G is assumed to be closed. The algorithm is of the branch and bound type and solves a sequence of problems in each of which the objective function is convex. These problems correspond to successive partitions of the feasible set. Two different rules for refining the partitions are considered; these lead to convergence of the algorithm under different requirements on the problem functions. Examples are given, and computational considerations are discussed.
Free For All—Guest Editorial: Growing Pains in the Management Sciences
Authors: Thrall Robert M.
Published: November 2008

I take this occasion to discuss something of the current status of the management sciences in general and of The Institute of Management Sciences in particular. TIMS, now in its 17th year, is suffering from some teenage growing pains. It was founded by a small band of young enthusiasts who foresaw, quite accurately as time has proved, the importance of the physical, social and mathematical sciences in all levels of management. About half of the founders were in universities; most of the others had staff or research positions in government or industry. There were very few managers proper in the founding group or in the membership at large during the early years and then Management Science, although receptive to papers on the underlying philosophy and applications, devoted the bulk of its pages to papers on mathematical models. As the second Editor-in-Chief of Management Science, I can testify that this was a response to the quality and quantity of papers received rather than a matter of editorial policy.
Comments on “Measuring Progress Towards Social Goals: Some Possibilities at National and Local Levels”
Authors: Hoffenberg Marvin
Published: November 2008

Comments on Terleckyj, N. E. 1970. Measuring progress towards social goals: some possibilities at national and local levels. Management Sci. 16(12, August) B-765–B-778.
The Effect of Reducing Leadtime on Inventory Levels-Simulation Analysis
Authors: Gross Donald , Soriano A.
Published: November 2008

The allowed safety stock level reduction and accompanying reduction in average on-shelf inventory level are evaluated, for prescribed system performance requirements, as a function of mean leadtime reduction. The general simulation technique developed for this purpose allows the treatment of the s, S periodic review inventory problem with both demands and leadtime being stochastic. Some results obtained for a military supply system, where the reduction in leadtime is achieved by resorting to airlift rather than sealift, are presented. In addition, generalizations as to the effect of certain parameters on the reductions allowable for general situations are given. Finally, a simplified means of predicting these effects by an empirical method is indicated.
A Note to the Problem of Convergence of Periodic Reinvestments
Authors: Černohorský Jindřich
Published: November 2008

The purpose of this paper is to show the mathematical treatment of the problem of periodic reinvestments by an amount equal to depreciation different from one which was given in [3]. It enables us to obtain further results concerning the convergence of the above mentioned process and in the simplest case (n = 2) to discuss the optimal choice of depreciation vector.
Communication to the Editor—The Use of Subjective Probability Estimates in Assessing Project Completion Times
Authors: Kidd J. B. , Morgan J. R.
Published: November 2008

The conclusion from this analysis supports King's [King, W. R., T. A. Wilson. 1967. Subjective time estimates in critical path planning—A preliminary analysis. Management Sci. 13(5, January) 307–320.] main point that there is little evidence of learning (i.e. improvement in the accuracy of estimates) in the period before work starts. There are, however, some differences. In this situation, more changes in estimates are made before work starts than reported by King. This is perhaps not surprising since King's analysis refers to new construction, which can perhaps be specified more clearly in advance, rather than the maintenance work which we are concerned.
A Method for Solving the Indefinite Quadratic Programming Problem
Authors: Mueller Raymond K.
Published: November 2008

A method is developed for obtaining a solution to the quadratic programming problem with an indefinite quadratic objective function. A search procedure using gradient projection is the core of the method. However at each step an alternate direction to gradient projection is proposed and two methods are given to continue after the revised gradient projection procedure terminates. Although convergence to the solution is not guaranteed, good results were obtained for fifty-seven problems used to test the method.
Experimental Designs for Computer Simulation Experiments
Authors: Hunter J. S. , Naylor T. H.
Published: November 2008

Experimental designs have found widespread application in the biological and physical sciences. The purpose in using these designs is not only that they are economical in terms of the number of experimental trials required, but more importantly, they provide a structure for the investigator's learning process. Experimental designs are available for (1) investigating the relationship of the response to the factors in order to determine the underlying mechanisms governing the process under study and (2) finding the combination of factor levels at which the response variable is optimized. Since a computer simulation experiment is indeed an experiment, it follows that one should give careful attention to experimental design questions prior to conducting a simulation experiment. Within the context of two simulation experiments with an inventory model, this paper discusses factorial, fractional factorial, rotatable, and response surface designs. We conclude by outlining a number of possible pitfalls and contingencies.
Mixed Model Line Balancing with Smoothed Station Assignments
Authors: Thomopoulos Nick T.
Published: November 2008

The general practice in mixed model assembly line balancing is to assign work to stations in a manner that each station has an equal amount of work on a daily or shift basis. This paper shows how a modification to mixed model line balancing algorithms can be used so that the stations are loaded more consistently on a model by model basis as well. In addition, the modification now allows mixed model line balancing to become a plausible tool for batched assembly line processes. The procedure is general in nature and is applicable to most line balancing algorithms.
Note—A Note on the Cyclic Coordinate Ascent Method
Authors: Zadeh Norman
Published: November 2008

The cyclic coordinate ascent method is a frequently used algorithm in optimization problems. It requires no derivatives and indicates in one iteration if a given point is optimal. It is proved that the cyclic coordinate ascent method will converge for pseudo concave functions, as well as for strictly concave functions as was previously known.
Application of Linear Programming to a Controversy on Air Pollution Control
Authors: Kohn Robert E.
Published: November 2008

A linear programming model for air pollution abatement is presented. It is based on the simplifying assumption that air quality goals may be expressed as maximum allowable emission flows in an airshed. The solution of the model for the St. Louis Airshed is examined to evaluate certain charges that it is economically infeasible for purposes of air pollution control to impose restrictions on the sulfur content of coal. It is found that such a regulation is justified for certain types of stokers but not others, that furnaces with a heating efficiency of 75% or less should be converted to natural gas. Uncertainty over certain key parameters precludes judgment as to whether the use of low sulfur coal is optimal for pulverized coal furnaces.
A Probability Model for the Remission Rate of Discharged Psychiatric Patients
Authors: Fox Peter D. , Kraemer Helena C.
Published: November 2008

A model of a type previously used in describing intervals between industrial accidents and between consumer purchases of a product is suggested to describe psychiatric patient rehospitalization times. Two forms of the model are discussed, and estimation procedures for the parameters of each of the two forms are described. The use of the models is illustrated by applying these estimation techniques to a set of data.
Note—An Addendum to “A Model of Rational Competitive Bidding”
Authors: Rothkopf Michael H.
Published: November 2008

This note bridges a logical gap created by an unstated assumption in a proof in the referred-to paper.
Graduate Programs in Operational Research at Lancaster and Sussex
Authors: Simpson M. G. , Rivett B. H. P.
Published: November 2008

The Graduate programmes at Lancaster and Sussex have much in common. Although the areas of special interest are somewhat different the general philosophy matches closely, and it thus seems more compact to present our views on the main purposes of education in the Management Sciences jointly.

As the form of graduate education differs significantly from one country to another, it might perhaps be useful to the readers of TIMS to point out that in the United Kingdom two main forms of full-time post graduate education are common: (a) Programmes mainly of a “course” content, which may also have some practical project work, but which do not expect proof of research ability from a student (mainly offering Masters degrees). (b) Both Master's and Doctoral programmes with little or no course work and in which the merits of the student are almost exclusively judged on his ability in research.
Planning Tire Production
Authors: Gorenstein Samuel
Published: November 2008

An outline of the tire production process is given. A planning model is discussed and an application is made to the planning of tire production (both long and short term). Planning for finished tires, green tires and for components is included as the model is developed. A multi-item production planning program is presented for finished tires and this is expanded to an assembly model with precedences for green tires and for components.
Random Variables, the Time Value of Money and Capital Expenditures
Authors: Kabak Irwin W. , Owen Joel
Published: November 2008

This paper treats the following problem. How much money should be invested at time t0 at an interest rate of I for a time T such that the probability of the funds required “K(T)” exceeding those available “X(T)” equals at most p. That is P{K(T) > X(T)} ≤ p, where X(T) = X(t0) exp{ I(T − t0)}. The parameters I, T, X(T) and K(T) are taken to be random variables. The theory to solve the stated problem is presented and solutions to certain specific cases are given.
Detecting “Small” Mean Shifts in Time Series
Authors: Farley John U. , Hinich Melvin J.
Published: November 2008

Analyzing time series data for evidence of changes in market conditions is a problem central to development of a marketing information system. Examples are tracking field reports on competitors' prices and analyzing market share estimates computed from retail audits and consumer panel reports. These series may involve substantial random measurement error, and any changes, often small relative to this error, are difficult to detect promptly and accurately. One way to approach this problem is with techniques recently developed for handling time series with small stochastic mean shifts as well as random error. Two special procedures are compared in Monte Carlo analyses with a simpler data filtering and control-chart approach; the latter appears the most promising.
Adaptive Smoothing using Evolutionary Spectra
Authors: Rao Ambar G. , Shapiro Arthur
Published: November 2008

The importance of adaptive and exponentially smoothed forecasting has led to the development of several schemes using the tracking signal or the smoothed autocorrelation function for changing the value of the smoothing coefficient. An alternative scheme, using evolutionary spectra is proposed. The smoothing constant is determined as a function of the maximum change in the various frequency components of successive spectra. The location and magnitude of this maximum change also indicates the type of disturbance in the underlying stochastic process generating the series. Simulation experiments indicate that the use of spectra in this evolutionary fashion produces forecasts that are generally more stable as well as more sensitive to genuine changes than schemes based on the tracking signal.
The Loading Problem
Authors: Eilon Samuel , Christofides Nicos
Published: November 2008

The loading problem is defined as the allocation of given items with known magnitude to boxes with constrained capacity, so as to minimize the number of boxes required. Two methods of solution are considered: The first is by a zero-one programming model, for which the solution procedure is described; the second is by a heuristic algorithm. Fifty problems were solved by the two methods and in all but two the second method yielded the optimal solution with significantly less computing time than that needed by the first method.
Using Laboratory Brand Preference Scales to Predict Consumer Brand Purchases
Authors: Pessemier Edgar , Burger Philip , Teach Richard , Tigert Douglas
Published: November 2008

Laboratory measures of brand preferences and survey measures of demographic, media exposure, attitudinal, activity and opinion characteristics of individual consumers have been combined to predict brand purchases in the market. Brands in the tooth paste, liquid household cleaner and cake mix product categories were employed in a set of laboratory experiments. Preference scales derived from the experiments are used in three separate models to predict the subject's purchases recorded in seven months of diary data. The behavioral implications and predictive power of the models are interesting from both theoretical and applied points of view.
Comment on Briskin's Note
Authors: Woolsey Gene
Published: November 2008

Recently, in a note by Lawrence E. Briskin [Briskin, Lawrence E. 1970. A note on Trauth and Woolsey's integer programming article. Management Sci. 16(11, July) 651.], it was pointed out that LIP1, an integer programming code, gave a wrong answer. I have now accumulated some years of bitter experience in attempting to solve several hundred integer programming problems with an ever increasing set of algorithms. I am therefore prepared to state that a wrong answer should hardly surprise anyone who has done much computational work in integer programming.
The Information Content of Prices: A Preliminary Model for Estimating Buyer Response
Authors: Monroe Kent B.
Published: November 2008

An understanding of buyer response to price depends upon determining how buyers perceive price. One hypothesis is buyers have an acceptable range of prices and, therefore, the demand curve is backward bending. This article presents an a priori argument for a new research methodology for estimating buyers' responses to price.

Two concepts are introduced to aid the development of the model. The potential applicability of the Weber-Fechner Law of psychophysics for exploring the price-quality relationship is analyzed and provides the basis of the argument that the demand function can be represented logarithmically. Given the desire to express demand as a logarithmic function of price, the lognormal distribution is used to explore the ramifications of the relationship. Finally, the method of profit analysis is developed for obtaining demand estimates.
Optimal Disaggregation of Aggregate Production Plans
Authors: Zoller Klaus
Published: November 2008

Aggregate Production Planning (APP) is concerned with a minimum cost adaptation of some production process to demand fluctuations, by means of controlling overall production rate (P) and workforce size (W). Disaggregation aims at allocating P and W to individual products such that an optimal sales program is obtained. A technique is developed which may be used for disaggregation when product contributions are nonlinear. It relies on decreasing marginal contributions as an evaluation criterion. In conjunction with an APP model, the technique can be used for a simultaneous derivation of aggregate and disaggregate decisions. This is illustrated by an application to a hypothetical production and sales planning problem.
A Control Problem of Bellman
Authors: Dantzig George B.
Published: November 2008

The control problem discussed in this paper is a variant of one considered by Bellman in a seminar at the RAND Corporation. A solution was presented to the seminar by the author in October 1952 based on the idea of placing a “loose” string between end points and “pulling tight.” Recently, Arthur Veinott has greatly extended the class of problems which admit a “string” solution. It appeared of value that the author publish his original notes on Bellman's problem. The problem will be considered here in a discrete version. The reader should have no difficulties developing its continuous analogue.
Quality Control under Markovian Deterioration
Authors: Ross Sheldon M.
Published: November 2008

We suppose that a production process may be in any one of a countable number of states and that the quality of the item produced is a function of this underlying state. It is also supposed that the state of the process at time t is not known and only becomes known when an item is sampled. We suppose that there are inspection, production, and revision costs and provide a framework for handling problems of this nature. We also treat in detail a 2-state version of this problem, and in this case show that the optimal policy does not necessarily have the three region structure which intuition suggests.