bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
DAMPAK PELAKSANAAN ACFTA TERHADAP PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL INDONESIA
Authors: Ibrahim Ibrahim , Permata Meily Ika , Ari Wibowo Wahyu
Published: January 2017

This study analyze the impact of the implementation of trade agreements within the framework of ACFTA on Indonesia»s export by using the GTAP model; a Multi Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results shows that ACFTA provide opportunities for increased export from Indonesia; Indonesia obtained a net trade creation of international trade amounted to 2% and total exports growth increased by 1.8. However, the export performance of Indonesia in the period showed a decrease of competitiveness, as shown by the decline in share of Indonesian export commodities which are highly competitive and high intra-industry linkage. This paper also find that because the commodity structure of China and the non compeeting behavior of ASEAN countries including Indonesia (tends to complement), China is relatively easier to penetrate export to the ASEAN market. The entering products from China should provide opportunities for domestic producers to increase production capacity in ASEAN, due to wider choice of relatively cheap capital goods imports.JEL Classification: C67, F14, R12Keywords: ACFTA, trade, export, GTAP, Revealed Comparative Advantage, CGE.
THE IMPACT OF ACFTA IMPLEMENTATION ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE OF INDONESIA
Authors: Ibrahim Ibrahim , Permata Meily Ika , Wibowo Wahyu Ari
Published: January 2017

This study analyze the impact of the implementation of trade agreements within the framework of ACFTA on Indonesia»s export by using the GTAP model; a Multi Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results shows that ACFTA provide opportunities for increased export from Indonesia; Indonesia obtained a net trade creation of international trade amounted to 2% and total exports growth increased by 1.8. However, the export performance of Indonesia in the period showed a decrease of competitiveness, as shown by the decline in share of Indonesian export commodities which are highly competitive and high intra-industry linkage. This paper also find that because the commodity structure of China and the non compeeting behavior of ASEAN countries including Indonesia (tends to complement), China is relatively easier to penetrate export to the ASEAN market. The entering products from China should provide opportunities for domestic producers to increase production capacity in ASEAN, due to wider choice of relatively cheap capital goods imports.JEL Classification: C67, F14, R12Keywords: ACFTA, trade, export, GTAP, Revealed Comparative Advantage, CGE.
KEJAHATAN PERBANKAN DAN EFEKTIVITAS PENGAWASAN PERBANKAN: MENGGABUNGKAN TEORI PERMAINAN DAN PENDEKATAN ANALYTICAL NETWORK PROCESS
Authors: Abdullah Piter
Published: January 2017

A failed bank can spark a deep financial crisis throughout the whole country when ironically it may simply have been triggered by a banking crime perpetrated by an insider, i.e. the banker. Although banking crimes may pose a significant threat to financial sector stability, the potential risk of internal fraud has, hitherto, not been taken into account in banking supervision processes. This paper analyzes the effectiveness of banking supervision to uncover potential risks of banking crimes by combining game theory and the analytical network process approach. In this paper, the author conducts two games with three players; the banker, the bank supervisor and the police. The banker has two strategies: to offend or not to offend. The bank supervisor has two choices: to supervise or not to supervise. The police can choose to enforce or not to enforce. In the first part, the effectiveness of bank supervision is analyzed theoretically using game theory. The effectiveness of banking supervision will depend on the behavior of each player as reflected in their decisions. Further analysis will confirm the previous result using an analytical network process. At this stage, the analytical network process is used to calculate the probability of each strategy being chosen by considering all criteria or sub criteria. Any decision made by one player will influence the other players in choosing their alternative strategies and vice versa.JEL Classificiation: C78, E58Keywords: Analytical Network Process, banking crimes, game theory.
PERAN STIMULUS FISKAL DAN PELONGGARAN MONETER PADA PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA SELAMA KRISIS FINANSIAL GLOBAL : DENGAN PENDEKATAN FINANCIAL COMPUTABLE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
Authors: Simorangkir Iskandar , Adamanti Justina
Published: January 2017

Global financial crisis started in mid 2008 has reduced global economic growth, and many countries even experienced economic contraction. To deal with economic contraction, various economic policies have been undertaken. Governments have increased fiscal stimulus through increasing expenditure and lowering tax while central banks have cut policy rates substantially. In some countries interest rates even reach zero or close to zero. Similar to many other countries, Indonesia has also undertaken expansionary policies, namely increasing fiscal stimulus and lowering interest rates.This paper examines the impacts of fiscal stimulus and interest rate cut on Indonesian economy using financial computable general equilibrium (FCGE) approach. The estimation results show a number of findings. First, the combination of fiscal expansion and monetary expansion boosts economic growth of Indonesia effectively. Relative to the effectiveness of fiscal expansion without monetary policy expansion or monetary expansion without fiscal expansion, the combination of those two policies is more effective.Second, looking into the components of GDP, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has a large multiplier effect, boosting aggregate demand through increasing consumption, investment, government expenditure, exports and imports. Meanwhile, from production side, the combination of fiscal and monetary expansion has positive effects on increasing production of all economic sectors. This effect comes from fiscal incentive (lower tax, lower import duties, etc) in increasing investment. Moreover, the increase in aggregate demand also encourages enterprises to increase their production.Third, institutionally fiscal stimulus and monetary easing has increased income and purchasing power of the poor and rich households in rural and urban area. This increase in turn results in higher all household consumption.JEL Classification: D58, E12, E13, E52, E58, H25, H31, H53, H54Keywords: Fiscal stimulus, monetary easing, financial computable general equilibrium, global financial crisis.
PENERAPAN KRITERIA OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA DAN VOLATILITASNYA: STUDI KASUS ASEAN-5 +3
Authors: Kusuma Dimas Bagus Wiranata , Putranto Arief Dwi
Published: January 2017

This paper is aiming to elaborate the case of how exchange rate volatility (ERV), which is supposedly considered to form optimum currency area (OCA), can be reduced in order justify the feasibility of the OCA idea within ASEAN5 plus three. Interestingly, the results provide some evidences that the ASEAN5+3 are considered not really ready to form OCA. It corroborates the existing opinion that the different in economic structure and its policies over foreign environment are becoming some barriers and challenging area to synchronize in the following time. The positive impacts AS to ERV which are incurred in ASEAN5+3 economies indicate the existence of inappropriate condition to form OCA since there are no similar shocks across a monetary union’s participating countries. Under such condition, it would foster the costs of forgoing the exchange rate as a shock absorbing mechanism. It deserves to argue that those observed countries still are resisting their existing regime since they are till believing that they begin to establish the system of monetary which are able to absorb any possible shocks in regards of their SIZE. In sum, the ASEAN5+3 countries are considered to fulfilling the requirement to form currency optimum area which are able to main their stable currency.JEL: D81, E52, F15, F36Key words: Optimum Currency Area, a Single Currency, Exchange Rate Volatility, Stability
IMPLEMENTATION OF OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA AND ITS VOLATILITY: CASE STUDY ASEAN-5+3
Authors: Kusuma Dimas Bagus Wiranata , Putranto Arief Dwi
Published: January 2017

This paper is aiming to elaborate the case of how exchange rate volatility (ERV), which is supposedly considered to form optimum currency area (OCA), can be reduced in order justify the feasibility of the OCA idea within ASEAN5 plus three. Interestingly, the results provide some evidences that the ASEAN5+3 are considered not really ready to form OCA. It corroborates the existing opinion that the different in economic structure and its policies over foreign environment are becoming some barriers and challenging area to synchronize in the following time. The positive impacts AS to ERV which are incurred in ASEAN5+3 economies indicate the existence of inappropriate condition to form OCA since there are no similar shocks across a monetary union’s participating countries. Under such condition, it would foster the costs of forgoing the exchange rate as a shock absorbing mechanism. It deserves to argue that those observed countries still are resisting their existing regime since they are till believing that they begin to establish the system of monetary which are able to absorb any possible shocks in regards of their SIZE. In sum, the ASEAN5+3 countries are considered to fulfilling the requirement to form currency optimum area which are able to main their stable currency.JEL: D81, E52, F15, F36Key words: Optimum Currency Area, a Single Currency, Exchange Rate Volatility, Stability
HUBUNGAN ANTARA GROWTH OPPORTUNITY DENGAN DEBT MATURITY DAN KEBIJAKAN LEVERAGE SERTA FUNGSI COVENANT DALAM MENGONTROL KONFLIK KEAGENAN ANTARA SHAREHOLDERS DENGAN DEBTHOLDERS
Authors: Fatmasari Rhini
Published: January 2017

Agency conflict is a phenomenon that occurs when a firm is doing its financing policies, especially of those related to the leverage strategies. Some of the former researches revealed some empirical evidence of the existence of a negative effect between growth opportunity, leverage, and debt maturity as one of the efforts in controlling the agency conflict between stockholders and bondholders.By using panel data regression model and data observation for over six years, this studies found that firms with high growth opportunity tend to use low leverage policies with short maturity to control the agency conflict between stockholders and bondholders. On the other hand, firms with low growth opportunity tend to use higher leverage policies with a longer period of debt maturity. Moreover, covenant as a moderating variable, could lower the negative relation between growth opportunity and leverage, but it could not diminish the negative relation between growth opportunity and debt maturity. Debt maturity and covenant also could not be use as substitution variable to lessen the agency conflict.Keywords: growth opportunity, leverage, debt maturity, covenant, stockholders and bondholders conflicts.JEL Classification: D92, G31
SOVEREIGN RISK ANALYSIS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: FINDINGS FROM CREDIT DEFAULT SWAP PREMIUM BEHAVIOUR
Authors: Ariefianto Moch Doddy , Soepomo Soenartomo
Published: January 2017

This study conducts econometric analysis CDS Premium relations towards variables usually used as a sovereign rating explanatory. Estimation with data panel econometric found that global risk appetite is the most important influencing variable followed by foreign exchange reserve and yield spread. This item is consistent with the existing empiric literature and shows a high correlation between developing countries economy and world economic cycle.JEL Classification : F34, F32, G13, G15, C23Keywords: Sovereign Risk, Credit Default Swap, Panel Data
QUARTERLY ANALYSIS: The Progress of Monetary, Banking and Payment System Quarter IV - 2011
Authors: Bank Indonesia Author Team of Quarterly Report
Published: January 2017

The Board of Governor Meeting of Bank Indonesia today decided to maintain the BI rate at the level of 6.0%. This decision is based on thoroughly examination on the recent economic performance, several recent risks, and the prospect of the economy. The Board of Governor view the level of BI rate is consistent with the targeted inflation ahead, and is conducive to maintain the financial stability, and also to mitigate the impact of global prospect on Indonesian economy.
REDUCING POVERTY THROUGH SUBSIDIES: SIMULATION OF FUEL SUBSIDY DIVERSION TO NON-FOOD CROPS
Authors: Maipita Indra , Hermawan Wawan , Fitrawaty Fitrawaty
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the impact of fuel subsidy diversion to Non-Food Crops sector on income levels, using AGEFIS; a Computable General Equilibrium model. Then we proceed to apply the Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) index to measure the indicators of poverty (head count index, poverty gap index and poverty severity index). The simulation result shows the fuel subsidy diversion to Non-Food Crops sector provides a positive impact on increasing household incomes and poverty reduction. Furthermore, the fuel subsidy diversion to Non-Food Crops sector reduces the poverty of rural household, larger than the urban households.Keywords: Subsidy, poverty, computable general equilibrium, AGEFIS.JEL Classification: C68, E62, I32
THE IMPACT OF FISCAL POLICY ON THE OUTPUT AND INFLATION
Authors: Surjaningsih Ndari , Utari G. A. Diah , Trisnanto Budi
Published: January 2017

This study examines the impact of fiscal policy on output and inflation, along with a look at discretionary fiscal policy and how it impacts the volatility of output and inflation. Model Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) was applied over quarterly data, covering the period 1990 to 2009. Empirical results showed that there is a cointegration relationship between government spending and taxes with respect to output in the long-run.Unlike government spending, in the long-term, taxation has a positive effect on economic growth. Short-term adjustment suggests that anincrease in government spending has a positive effect on output, while a tax increase has a negative effect. There is a greater influence of government spending on output in the short term compared to taxation policies. Therefore, government spending is more effective to stimulate economic growth especially in times of recession, compared to taxation policies. While the increase in government spending causes a decrease in inflation, tax increases lead to higher inflation. This study also indicates the absence of discretionary fiscal policy made by the government of Indonesia. Keywords : Inflation, output, fiscal policy, tax, discretionary, VECM.JEL Classification: E31, E62
SURVEY MEASURES OF INFLATION EXPECTATION
Authors: Tjahjono Endy Dwi , Harmanta Harmanta , Purwato Nur M. Adhi
Published: January 2017

The research objective was to analyze various survey measures of inflation expectation in Indonesia. We found that the heterogeneity of inflation expectationamong economic agents and professional forecastersfor short forecast horizon is very low. Survey measures of inflation expectation appear to be forward looking, but only for relatively short horizon. Although the magnitude and length vary across measures of inflation expectation, we find that shock to inflation expectation significantly affect the dynamics of the actual inflation rate. Based on the accuracy, the effect on actual inflation and directional information that they have in predicting current and future inflation, inflation expectation from Consensus Forecast outperformed the others. Keywords: Inflation expectation, Vector Auto Regression, balanced score.JEL Classification: C42, E31
OFFSHORE AND ONSHORE IDR MARKET: AN EVIDENCE ON INFORMATION SPILLOVER
Authors: Cadarajat Yayat , Lubis Alexander
Published: January 2017

This paper investigates the information transmission between off-shore and on-shore Rupiah currency markets Indonesian. We found the evidence of persistent volatility in all IDR/USD markets. Using EGARCH model on daily data for the period of 2008 - 2011, this paper provide several empirical conclusions.-First, the persistent volatility in all IDR/USD currency markets is evident. Second, the leverage effects are present in the rupiah exchange rates, indicating that IDR/USD markets have responded more to depreciation than appreciation, which is generally common in emerging market currencies. Third, the evidence of mean spillover are observed to be uni-directional; from NDF to both spot and forward rupiah markets. However, there are two ways return transmission between NDF and forward rate changes in the period of Europe crisis. Fourth, on the volatility, the spillover is only significant from NDF market to spot market for the entire period. However, in the time of crises, there is interdependence between volatility in offshore NDF and onshore spot rate changes, while information transmission is only valid from NDF to forward rate changes, not the other way around. Fifth, the negative spread of domestic interest rate may lead to depreciation pressure on the currency and positive spread may indicate the appreciation pressure. Keywords: Foreign Exchange, Non-Deliverable Forward, exchange rate, spillover, EGARCH.JEL Classification: F31, G13, C51
EARLY WARNING INDICATORS STUDY OF BANK RUNS IN INDONESIA : MARKOV-SWITCHING APPROACH
Authors: Simorangkir Iskandar
Published: January 2017

A run on a particular bank can lead to a banking crisis if it spreads to other banks (contagious effect). In the case of Indonesia, bank runs have also reoccurred time and again. In 1992, bank runs affected several national banks, subsequently precipitating the liquidation of one bank. Then in 1997/1998, bank runs developed into the worst banking crisis ever witnessed in the banking history of Indonesia. Considering the extent of losses attributable to bank runs and the banking crisis, extensive studies on the early warning indicators of bank runs are urgently required to prevent future bank runs and banking crises. This paper aims to comprehensively analyse the early warning indicators of bank runs for all banks in Indonesia, both during the sample period of 1990-2005 as well as during the banking crisis in 1997-1998. The study of early warning indicators of bank runs uses the Markov-Switching model. To calculate the transition probability from a tranquil state to a state of bank run uses the Markov-Switching process through an auto-regressive approach. The change in deposits held at each bank is used as a variable of bank runs. The results of Markov-Switching (MS) show that the MS model is robust as an early warning indicator of bank runs. This is reflected by testing, which was performed on the actual incident of 102 banks, showing that the MS model only produced false signals an estimated 0.69% - 2.08% of the time. Keywords: Bank Runs, Early Warning Indicators, Markov-SwitchingJEL Classification: C22, G21
KAJIAN INDIKATOR PERINGATAN DINI BANK RUNS DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN MARKOV-SWITCHING
Authors: Simorangkir Iskandar
Published: January 2017

A run on a particular bank can lead to a banking crisis if it spreads to other banks (contagious effect). In the case of Indonesia, bank runs have also reoccurred time and again. In 1992, bank runs affected several national banks, subsequently precipitating the liquidation of one bank. Then in 1997/1998, bank runs developed into the worst banking crisis ever witnessed in the banking history of Indonesia. Considering the extent of losses attributable to bank runs and the banking crisis, extensive studies on the early warning indicators of bank runs are urgently required to prevent future bank runs and bankingcrises. This paper aims to comprehensively analyse the early warning indicators of bank runs for all banks in Indonesia, both during the sample period of 1990-2005 as well as during the banking crisis in 1997-1998. The study of early warning indicators of bank runs uses the Markov-Switching model. To calculate the transition probability from a tranquil state to a state of bank run uses the Markov-Switching process through an auto-regressive approach. The change in deposits held at each bank is used as a variable of bank runs. The results of Markov-Switching (MS) show that the MS model is robust as an early warning indicator of bank runs. This is reflected by testing, which was performed on the actual incident of 102 banks, showing that the MS model only produced false signals an estimated 0.69% - 2.08% of the time.Keywords: Bank Runs, Early Warning Indicators, Markov-SwitchingJEL Classification: C22, G21
APAKAH TATA KELOLA PEREKONOMIAN DAERAH DI INDONESIA TELAH MENINGKAT?
Authors: Kuncoro Haryo
Published: January 2017

Governance has gone through radical changes over the last twenty five years.Seemingly, it became one of the important strategies, processes, methods and mechanisms in governing countries to achieve economic development goals. The objective of this paper is to observe the local economic governance dynamics in the case of districts/municipalities in Indonesia. First, the dynamics behavior of local governance over time is analyzed by visual inspection of their non-parametric density distribution. More deeply, we use Markov chains to predict a pattern of change in local economic governance toward its steady state. Based on comparison between 2007 and 2011 data delivered by Commission of Regional Autonomy Implementation Watch, we conclude that there is a high level of persistence in the relative position of local governance index, consistent with a low degree of mobility in the index distribution implying the implementation of governance in the districts/municipalities in Indonesia is weak enough. This finding implies that the local economic governance is a key to achieve sustainable regional economic growth in line with fiscal decentralization and regional autonomy.Keywords : Local Economic Governance, Decentralization, Regional Economic Growth, Kernel Densities, Markov ChainsJEL Classification: H70, O43, O56
APLIKASI REJIM PERSAMAAN MODEL GRAVITASI YANG TELAH DIRUBAH PADA KASUS DINAMIKA ARUS PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA DENGAN MITRA DAGANG DARI ASEAN
Authors: Suryanta Barli
Published: January 2017

The forthcoming 2015, ASEAN is being confident to implement ASEAN Free Trade (AFTA). The existence of AFTA is to outstrip trade liberalization due to augment trade volume significantly and transaction easing as well among the members of AFTA, mainly by inducing lower tariffs some certain commodities up to 0%. This paper is conducted in order to examine on what prominent commodity of Indonesia compared to its counterparts namely Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. These Indonesia counterparts are selected therefore they were the founding of ASEAN. Furthermore, this paper utilizes a modified Gravity Equation model. This model has an effort to estimate the significance of some parameters of variable from model equation. Thus, it can be detected that what are from these variables from a model equation being as a key determination factor to influence trading transactions. This paper also assesses the adjusted R-squared due to which Indonesia counterparts incur some vantage points as well as beneficial for Indonesia in terms of AFTA. The novelty contribution of this paper is to reveal the dynamics trade spillover between Indonesia some strategic sectors and its counterparts. By doing so, Indonesia is expected to be a dominant player in AFTA 2015 and taking some advantageous from AFTA into Indonesia account.Keywords: AFTA 2015, a modified gravity equation model, analysis of data panelJEL Classification: C33, C51, F15
Measuring the Time Inconsistency of Monetary Policy in Indonesia
Authors: Rahmahdian Rini , Warjiyo Perry
Published: January 2017

This study measured the time inconsistency of monetary policy in Indonesia using the asymmetric preference parameter in linear exponential loss function of the central bank. Asymmetric central bank preference becomes an important issue since many of the results on the time inconsistency problem under symmetric preferences may no longer hold under asymmetric preferences. Using two sub-samples, i.e. before and after the implementation of central bank independence act, the conditional mean and the conditional variance of the output gap were estimated and then proceed to estimate the reduced form of the model. The results showed the existence of an asymmetric preference parameter before the Bank Indonesia independence act, which indicated the presence of a time inconsistency problem of monetary policy. This finding implies Bank Indonesia put a negative weight instead of positive weight on the output gap prior to its independency. However, after the implementation of central bank independence, the monetary policy of Bank Indonesia has been consistent with symmetric policy preference over price stability and output. Keywords: Time inconsistency, discretionary, monetary policy, asymmetric central bank preference, output gap, inflation bias.JEL Classification : E52, E58
THRESHOLD OF REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND THE PERFORMANCE OF MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY IN INDONESIA
Authors: Surjaningsih Ndari , Maryaningsih Novi , Savitri Myrnawati
Published: January 2017

This paper analyzes the presence of the threshold of the real rupiah exchange rate which influences the profitability of manufacturing industry in Indonesia. By using a non-dynamics panel data over medium and large scale companies during 2001-2009, we found the threshold of 82.4 for the real rupiah exchange rate (REER). The REER index ranging from 82.24 to 101.13 with the change value between -5.01% and 20.09% (yoy) is secure for the profitability of Indonesian manufacturing industry. This paper also conform the significant affect of Total Factor Productivity on firm’s profitability.  Keywords: Profitability, Manufacturing industry, exchange rate JEL classification: F1, D21, L6
THE IMPACT OF CRUDE PALM OIL PRICE ON RUPIAH’S RATE
Authors: Aprina Hilda
Published: January 2017

Indonesia is a largest producer of Crude Palm Oil in the world, with increasing production and export from time to time. Since Indonesia now adopts a floating exchange rate regime, the export of such commodity may influence the real exchange rate, and this is the aim of this paper. By applying simultaneous equation model on data from 1984 to 2011, we conclude that the increase in CPO price will lead to an appreciation of Rupiah’s real exchange rate. As a major producer of CPO, the authority should be able to control the world price of crude palm oil to help controlling the stability of Rupiah’s rate. Keywords: CPO, simultaneous equation, real exchange rate.JEL Classification: E2
KONVERGENSI PENERIMAAN DAN PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH PROVINSI DI INDONESIA: PENDEKATAN DATA PANEL DINAMIS SPASIAL
Authors: Dekiawan Hermada
Published: January 2017

The study analyse sigma and beta convergence of provincial government revenues and expenditures in Indonesia (APBD) by using panel data 30 provinces over the period 2000-2012. The variables used in this study consists of real income per capita and the revenues and expenditures variables in the APBD. The study also included a spatial weights matrix to analyse dependency among provinces. Spatial weights matrix used consists of two types of weights, the real income per capita and the geographical distance. Testing for the presence of spatial dependency performed using Moran’s I. The model used in this study are spatial autoregressive model (SAM) and the spatial error model (SEM). The models are estimated using panel least squares, fixed effects, random effects, as well as both GMM first difference (GMM-DIFF) and system GMM (GMM-SYS). Based on sigma convergence approach, the results of the study showed that during the period of 2000-2012 occurred convergence on total revenue, income, tax, fund balance, total spending, employee spending, and goods spending, but not for the real income per capita. Estimation with beta convergence approach conducted on four variables as each sample (in per capita value), namely: total income, tax, total spending, and goods spending. Estimation with beta convergence is done by using additional explanatory variables which include: economic growth, the degree of openness, as well as economic growth. Based on the beta convergence approach, the study results indicate the occurrence of convergence on total income, tax, total spending, and goods spending. Estimates also lead to the conclusion that there are spatial dependencies between provinces either use distance and income per capita weight. Keywords: Sigma and Beta convergence, spatial weights, panel data, revenue and expenditure, the provincial budget (APBD)JEL Classification: H7,R1
Fiscal and Monetary Policy Interaction : Evidences and Implication for Inflation Targeting in Indonesia
Authors: Mochtar Firman
Published: January 2017

Paper ini menganalisa interaksi kebijakan fiskal dan moneter di Indonesia pada masa sebelum dan sesudah krisis, dengan melakukan estimasi atas quasy fiscal activity (QFA) Bank Indonesia dan mengurai interaksi antara kebijakan fiskal dan moneter. Penulis menemukan bahwa selama masa krisis, aktifitas ini (QFA) ada dan dilakukan oleh bank sentral Indonesia. Hal ini berbeda dengan masa sebelum krisis dimana QFA memiliki besaran yang netral. Dalam kaitan interaksi kebijakan fiskalmoneter, fakta ini menunjukkan dominasi kebijakan fiskal pada masa setelah krisis. Analisa interaksi antara kebijakan fiskal dan moneter ini membawa implikasi kebijakan di Indonesia yakni perlunya disiplin dalam kebijakan fiskal dan perlunya komitmen untuk mempertahankan sustainability kebijakan tersebut. Kegagalan mencapai kebijakan fiskal yang optimal akan mengurangi efektifitas kebijakan moneter dalam rangka mengontrol inflasi meski dalam kerangka inflation targeting yang secara parsial sudah diimplementasikan oleh Bank Indonesia.Keyword: Quasi Fiscal Activities, Fiscal Policy, Monetary Policy, Inflation TargetingJEL: E11, E31, E52, E62
PERBANDINGAN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS (EWS) UNTUK MEMPREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN BANK UMUM DI INDONESIA
Authors: Angelina, SE, Msi, Akt Liza
Published: January 2017

This research is testing the capability of several forewarning system models to predict bank bankruptcy. We apply these models on Indonesian commercial bank data during the period of 1994/ 1995 - 1999/2000. Considering the data incompleteness and or their inexistence, our data finally contains of 74 failed-banks and 81 non failed-banks.Our result shows the Trait Recognition model (TR) is more pre-eminent than Logit and Multiple Discriminant Analysis model (MDA).Keywords : Trait Recognition (TR), Logit, Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA), Bank BankruptcyJEL: C25, C35, G21, G33
ANALISIS PERILAKU INSTABILITAS, PERGERAKAN HARGA, EMPLOYMENT DAN INVESTASI DI DALAM SEKTOR PERTANIAN INDONESIA: Aplikasi Vector Error Correction Model
Authors: Irawan Andi
Published: January 2017

In a long run perspective, the aim of this research is to analyze the impact of the inflating-policy on the employment growth, and the agriculture investment. From a short run perspective, the aim covers (1) the identification of agriculture price instability on certain economic blocks, (2) the analysis of inflation behavior in the agriculture sector and its causality both to output price and input prices and the causality within the input prices.We apply the Vector Error Correction Model, Johansen Cointegration Test, and Granger Causality Test on a monthly series data from 1993:01 to 2002:12. The result shows the production and capital inagriculture sector are responsive to the output price change. This inflating the output price will effectively help to generate the output and a new investment in this sector. However, as the price shock can be a source of instability, the government should be careful to apply this price inflating policy. In addition, to solve the unemployment problem in agriculture sector, the government should apply the cost strategy, such as input price subsidy  policy.JEL: C32, C52, O13, Q11, Q18Keyword: Employment, Investasi, Agriculture,Johansen, Cointegration Vector Error Correction Model, Causality Test
TEKANAN POLITIK PEMERINTAH DAERAH DALAM ALOKASI DAU
Authors: Syahrial Syarif
Published: January 2017

The paper analyzes the current progress of the fiscal decentralization in Indonesia, characterized by the pressure to improve the law, UU No. 22 and 25199. We apply the probit model on the municipality data in 2002, and estimate the block grant size (DAU) as a function of fiscal needs, the size of region and collusion between central and local government.The result conform the significance of political pressure from rich region to central government, but fail to prove the positive hypothetical relationship between the block grant size and the collusion. The implication is straight forward, that the implementation of the fiscal decentralization must be strengthen to avoid miss allocation of the fund.Keywords:Fiscal policy, decentralization, collussion, probit modelJEL Classification: JEL Classification: C35, E62
STABILITAS SISTEM PERBANKAN DAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER : KETERKAITAN DAN PERKEMBANGANNYA DI INDONESIA
Authors: Warjiyo Perry
Published: January 2017

This paper reviews the inter-linkage between banking stability and monetary policy, with a reference to the Indonesian case since the 1997 crisis. In particular, it shows how monetary transmission mechanism would be inhibited and thus monetary policy would not be effective when the banking system is not sound and stable, such as during a crisis period. Conversely, the stance and response of monetary policy would have significant impacts on banking stability as inflation, exchange rate, and interest rate constitute major market risks to banking operations. For Indonesia, a close inter-linkage between banking instability and monetary policy ineffectiveness has been vividly evidenced during the crisis period of 1997 – 1999. Subsequently, however, with progress of the banking restructuring programs that Indonesia authorities have undertaken, the banking conditions have imporved considerably since 2000. As banking intermediation improved, not only has financing to economic growth increased but also monetary transmission mechanisms strengthened considerably. Nonetheless, excess liquidity that banking system is still experiencing, especially because of lack of feasible investment outlests in the real sector and high perceived credit risks from the bankers, poses serious challenges to the central bank for better coordination and striking the optimal balance between maintaining monetary and banking stability while continue to promoting economic growth.Keyword: banking stability, monetary policy, IndonesiaJEL : G21, E52, N25
CONVERGENCE IN PRICE LEVEL AMONG EAST JAVA’S REGIONS
Authors: Afin Rifai
Published: January 2017

Penelitian ini berupaya menjelaskan konvergensi tingkat harga di wilayah Jawa Timur. Analisa konvergensi harga ini dilakukan dengan dua metode, pertama dengan regresi cross sectional, dan kedua dengan menggunakan prosedur Augmented Dickey Fuller. Selain itu pengembangan metode dilakukan dengan menggunakan teknik analisa panel yang dikembangkan oleh Levin dan Lin (1992, 1993).Hasil pengujian untuk selang periode 1983-2003 menunjukkan bahwa konvergensi inflasi tidak terjadi. Untuk periode 1983-1993 dan 1994-2003, hasil pengujian menujukkan arah yang sesuai dengan teori, dan signifikan.However, test using data from 1983 – 2003 show that inflation convergence across East Java Regions does not occur consistently over time. Separately period, 1983 – 1993 and 1994 – 2003 we founf right sign and significant in total period but in small sample periode, 1983 – 1993 and 1994 – 2003 we also found the right sign but insignificant. In the context of development of monetary policy, the evidence suggest if the convergence in national data of price level can bring monetary policy becoming similar across regions.Keywords: regional, price level, convergence, panel unit root testJEL : C23, E31, R11, R51, R58
KOORDINASI KEBIJAKAN MONETER DAN FISKAL DI INDONESIA: SUATU KAJIAN DENGAN PENDEKATAN GAME THEORY
Authors: Simorangkir Iskandar
Published: January 2017

Perdebatan hubungan kebijakan moneter dan fiskal terkait dengan dampak defisit anggaran yang dapat mengganggu inflasi yang merupakan tujuan akhir kebijakan moneter. Sebaliknya, bagi pembuat kebijakan fiskal inflasi yang terlalu ketat dapat berdampak buruk terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi dan kesempatan kerja yang merupakan tujuan utama dari kebijakan fiskal. Tidak terdapatnya koordinasi diantara kedua kebijakan tersebut dapat berdampak terhadap stabilitas makro dan pertumbuhan ekonomi.Paper ini akan membahas koordinasi kebijakan moneter dan fiskal di Indonesia dari tahun 1969 hingga tahun 2002 dengan menggunakan pendekatan game teori baik berupa cooperative dan noncooperative game. Beberapa kerangka permainan akan disimulasikan dengan model ekonometrik dengan waktu yang kontinu. Pembuat kebijakan moneter dan fiskal diasumsikan mempunyai fungsi tujuan yang berbeda. Dalam mencapai tujuan tersebut, mereka dapat bekerjasama atau tidak. Hasil simulasi menunjukkan bahwa cooperative game memberikan hasil kerugian terkecil (lost function) dibandingkan dengan non-cooperative game.Keywords: Game Theory, Koordinasi, Kebijakan moneter dan fiskalJEL Classification: JEL Classification: C71, C72, E63
Expansión y reestructuración del parque residencial del País Vasco (1991-2011). Consolidación de patrones propios de la dispersión urbana
Authors: Torres Elizburu Roberto
Published: January 2017

En la Comunidad Autónoma del País Vasco la expansión inmobiliaria no alcanzó la intensidad de otras regiones españolas pero estuvo muy por encima del tenue crecimiento demográfico. Mediante la Estadística Municipal de Vivienda de Eustat se analiza la evolución del parque residencial vasco entre 1991 y 2011: el incremento del volumen de viviendas, las transformaciones en las tipologías y en el uso, así como las pautas territoriales y temporales durante el periodo. Se constatará el considerable despegue inmobiliario de los años pasados, que se propagó por todo el territorio vasco bajo diferentes formas.
Evolución y distribución territorial de los trabajadores eventuales agrarios subsidiados en Andalucía
Authors: Cejudo García Eugenio , Navarro Valverde Francisco , Cañete Pérez José Antonio
Published: January 2017

El Subsidio de Desempleo Agrario (SDA) y la Renta Agraria (RA) poseen unas evidentes implicaciones geográficas al propiciar el mantenimiento del tejido poblacional y social de los espacios rurales andaluces, sobre todo en ese rural con un desempleo estructural. La casi exacta coincidencia con la distribución de los afiliados a la seguridad social agraria, su concentración espacial a lo largo del tiempo, y la feminización-envejecimiento de su colectivo, posee una serie de consecuencias territoriales complejas: directas e indirectas, positivas (sostenimiento demográfico y poblacional de gran parte de los ámbitos rurales del interior andaluz, contribución a la conservación del paisaje y el patrimonio rural, como principales), pero también negativas (mantenimiento del círculo vicioso del desempleo estructural, dualidad del sector agrario y del territorio andaluz, sometimiento femenino, y apenas incidencia en las tasas reproductivas por ser mayoritariamente un colectivo de edad adulta avanzada, también como esenciales).
Interpretación del patrimonio y gestión sostenible del turismo en espacios rurales. Los casos de Montejo de la Sierra y Patones
Authors: Martín Hernanz Iris , Martín Gil Fernando
Published: January 2017

La Interpretación del Patrimonio es una herramienta de gestión disponible para la conservación del patrimonio natural y cultural. En las próximas páginas se aborda una revisión teórica sobre la materia, centrando la atención en sus potencialidades como instrumento de sostenibilidad turística en áreas rurales, y se evalúa su eficacia en dos casos de estudio en los que ha sido aplicada. El objetivo central de este trabajo es contribuir al mayor conocimiento de la disciplina en España y proponer ideas que fomenten su aplicación en la gestión sostenible del turismo en áreas rurales.
Crisis y empleo en las ciudades de Andalucía
Authors: González-Romero Gema , Caravaca Inmaculada
Published: January 2017

El objetivo de este artículo es analizar la evolución experimentada por el empleo en las ciudades andaluzas entre los años 2006 y 2009, periodo en el que se inicia la crisis, y el que trascurre entre 2009 y 2012, cuando empiezan a detectarse los efectos de las políticas de austeridad. Se intenta, así, identificar cuáles son los factores que ayudan a entender dicha evolución, considerar las diferentes formas en que los municipios urbanos están siendo afectados por la crisis, y reflexionar acerca de si ésta pudiera estar reafirmando el rol ejercido por las agro-ciudades en el sistema urbano regional. Se utiliza como fuente el Registro de Afiliaciones a la Seguridad Social.
La apertura de la frontera: ¿Nuevas identidades transfronterizas?
Authors: Mansvelt Beck Jan , Hortelano Mínguez Luis Alfonso
Published: January 2017

Durante el apogeo de la soberanía se estudiaban las fronteras desde una perspectiva estado-céntrica. Hoy en día vivimos en una época de post-soberanía en que los estados ya no son contenedores de seguridad, economía y cultura y sus fronteras han perdido la función de barrera militar, económica y cultural. Por lo tanto nuevos enfoques teóricos se han desarrollado sobre las zonas fronterizas. Estos enfoques se basan en la idea de que la integración transnacional genera espacios de interacción económica, política y cultural, creando nuevas identidades transfronterizas. No obstante, los estudios de la frontera basados en estos nuevos enfoques padecen de una cierta euforia transfronteriza, porque hay indicios de que la apertura de la frontera no la deja como un palimpsesto de un pasado soberanista del estado. Por eso hay que matizar la euforia transfronteriza por las siguientes razones: primera, aunque se puede observar un incremento de la interacción económica transfronteriza, ésta sigue estando situada en su mayor parte dentro del estado; segunda, la cohesión político-cultural sigue siendo poco intensa en las zonas transfronterizas; y tercera, la frontera sigue dividiendo culturas e identidades.
Representación del espacio urbano en alumnos de primaria de la ciudad de Bahía Blanca (Argentina). Un análisis a partir de mapas mentales
Authors: Pinassi Carlos Andrés , Seguí Llinás Miguel
Published: January 2017

El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo: analizar la representación mental de alumnos de educación primaria de la ciudad de Bahía Blanca, a partir de la metodología de mapas mentales; siguiendo como hipótesis que el espacio vivido de los niños de dicha aglomeración, se estructura a partir de espacios de socialización vinculados a la recreación y el esparcimiento, en detrimento de aquellos asociados a la historia y cultura del lugar. En este contexto, se obtiene como resultado, que los espacios de carácter contemporáneo prevalecen ante aquellos patrimoniales, que configuran la identidad de la sociedad local.
Uso y gestión del paisaje para la actividad turística en el medio rural: aproximación teórica y empírica en el sureste de Castilla-La Mancha (Albacete)
Authors: Cebrián Abellán Francisco , García Martínez Carmen
Published: January 2017

La gestión del paisaje como herramienta para armonizar las tensiones entre los cambios debidos a las actividades humanas y el respeto por sus valores y significados, es una de las propuestas centrales del Convenio Europeo del Paisaje. El uso del paisaje para la actividad turística en el espacio rural debe verse incluido en este contexto. Se presenta primero una reflexión sobre los avances en el tratamiento normativo del paisaje en España. Por otro lado, se presta atención a su puesta en valor en un ámbito acotado geográficamente en el sureste de Castilla-La Mancha. En una región donde el paisaje está prácticamente ausente del marco normativo vigente, se muestran distintas iniciativas de escala local y fuerte componente participativo dirigidas a la revalorización del paisaje como recurso turístico en áreas rurales.
La Geografía en el tercer ciclo de educación primaria: estilos de aprendizaje y rendimiento académico
Authors: Díaz-Serrano José , Miralles Martínez Pedro
Published: January 2017

Este trabajo trata de indagar en el tratamiento que se hace de los contenidos geográficos en el Tercer Ciclo de Educación Primaria, a través de un doble propósito; por un lado, caracterizar los estilos de aprendizaje de los alumnos; por otro, analizar su influencia en el rendimiento académico de los mismos en el área de las ciencias sociales y en los contenidos de geografía. Con una metodología cuantitativa no experimental y tomando como participantes a 163 estudiantes, usaremos el modelo teórico defendido por Alonso, Gallego y Honey (1999). Los resultados revelan la capacidad predictiva del estilo de aprendizaje sobre el rendimiento del alumnado, alcanzando conclusiones que permiten orientar el diagnóstico de los estilos de aprendizaje y optimizar el rendimiento de docentes y discentes en pro de una enseñanza de la geografía decidida a atender a las diferencias individuales más que al colectivo medio.
Suppressing Zoysiagrass in Cool‐Season Turf with Topramezone
Authors: Patton Aaron J. , Weisenberger Daniel V.
Published: January 2017

Core Ideas

Zoysiagrass is a desirable turf, but it can spread into adjacent areas where it is unwanted.

No selective herbicide is registered for use to suppress zoysiagrass in cool‐season turf.

Our study demonstrated that Pylex (topramezone) provides zoysiagrass supression.
Impact of Bimanual Vaginal Examination on Pap Smear Test Results
Authors: Türkyılmaz Esengül , Yıldırım Melahat , Desdicioğlu Raziye , Orhun Yavuz Huban Sibel , Yavuz Avşar Ayşe Filiz
Published: January 2017

Objective: The aim of the study is to evaluate the possible effects of the various conditions especially bimanual examination on the adequacy of pap smear test.Study Design: Presented here is a prospective controlled clinical trial carried out at Ankara Atatürk Training and Research Hospital between November 2013 and March 2014. Total of 1771 patients seen at the gynecology outpatient clinic were included in the study. The technique described by the American Society of Cytopathology Criteria 2000 for the preparation of the specimen was followed. Updated Bethesda system 2014 was used for reporting the results.Results: Number of subjects in smear before examination group was 1194 and in the smear after examination group was 577. Two percent (n=36 subjects) of the cervicovaginal report was inadequate. When other clinical conditions were not taken into consideration, the likelihood ratio for inadequate smear in the smear after examination group was 2.64 compared to smear before examination group (p=0,004). Conclusions: In some conditions cervicovaginal smear sampling may be carried out after bimanual vaginal examination instead of missing the chance to screen the women. However, the patients have to be informed that cervicovaginal smear result might be inadequate so that a repeat test has to be carried out.
Hydro-technologies in the Minoan Era
Authors: Angelakis A. N.
Published: January 2017

Significant characteristics of the Minoan civilization were: (a) their peaceful living with their environment and neighbors (although the Minoans dominated in the Mediterranean for almost two millennia, in none of the numerous wars and/or conflicts that occurred in the region were they directly or indirectly involved) and (b) technological developments that are unprecedented in world history, as shown by the numerous paradigms on water resources technologies used and water, wastewater, and stormwater management. These paradigms are relevant to water supply, fountains, cisterns used to store rainwater or spring water, aqueducts, dams, wells, water treatment systems, baths and toilets, sewerage and drainage systems, irrigation and drainage of agricultural land, and water use for recreation. Significant hydrologic and hydraulic achievements in Minoan Crete are considered and discussed.