bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Enfermagem em unidade de internação psiquiátrica
Authors: De Oliveira Renata Marques , Siqueira Júnior Antonio Carlos , Furegato Antonia Regina Ferreira
Published: September 2020

Objetivo: Conhecer a opinião de trabalhadores da enfermagem e portadores de transtornos mentais sobre a assistência de enfermagem em unidade de internação psiquiátrica. Método: Estudo exploratório com 27/84 pacientes, 10/14 auxiliares de enfermagem e 6/6 enfermeiros de uma unidade psiquiátrica de hospital geral. Entrevistas individuais baseadas em questões norteadoras. Análise temática de conteúdo. Resultados: Pacientes: mulheres (66,7%); média etária 41,9 anos; primeira internação (44%). Profissionais: 68,8% mulheres, em média, formados há 9,8 anos. A enfermagem enfrenta dificuldades relacionadas aos pacientes (alucinações/delírios, crianças, isolamento, risco de suicídio, sintomas maníacos) e à rotina de trabalho (burocracia, omissão perante condutas inadequadas dos colegas, número insuficiente de profissionais, organização vertical do trabalho em equipe). Conclusão: Apesar da evolução da reforma psiquiátrica e dos avanços profissionais, a enfermagem ainda enfrenta dificuldades no cuidado aos pacientes internados. Identificálas, ajuda a refletir e aprimorar a prática profissional.
Reseña del libro de Elena Santainés Borreda: Florencia Nightingale en la obra de Federico Rubio
Authors: Siles González José
Published: September 2020

En esta reseña, el autor describe las características de una interesante aportación a la historiografía enfermera española. La temática tratada así lo demuestra: La incidencia de Florencia Nightingale en el pensamiento y la obra de Federico Rubio, especialmente en la Escuela de Enfermería Santa Isabel de Hungría.
Camino a la cumbre. El castellonense Nicolau Casalduch a finales de la Edad Media. De mercader a señor de vasallos
Authors: Aparici Martí Joaquín
Published: September 2020

Nicolau Casalduch puede verse como un paradigma interpretativo de emprendedor con éxito. Mercader y noble, pero con una considerable iniciativa, conseguirá destacar como propietario de bienes inmuebles e infraestructuras productivas a todos los niveles (tierras, casas, tiendas, batán, horno, tinte, trepiche). A su actividad comercial y a su participación en el gobierno local de Castelló se unirá finalmente la consecución de un itinerario que le llevará a ser señor de vasallos.
Leonor Francesc, una conversa procesada por el tribunal inquisitorial de Valencia entre finales del siglo XV y el primer tercio del siglo XVI
Authors: Angelino Pardo María Alejandra
Published: September 2020

En la Valencia tardomedieval se desarrolla la trayectoria vital de Leonor Francesc, esposa de Pere Coscolla, funcionario de la Hacienda Real de Fernando el Católico. La particular extensión en el tiempo durante el cual fue sometida a las autoridades del Tribunal Inquisitorial de Valencia, a lo largo de más de treinta años, y la extraordinaria actividad social que desplegó Leonor, nos permiten, a través de las actuaciones procesales de la Inquisición contra ella, reconstruir no solo su periplo vital sino también la comunidad de conversos a la que Leonor pertenecía, su dinámica, sus relaciones, sus conductas, sus aspiraciones, sus desvelos, su espiritualidad y sus sueños. En este trabajo se analizan las primeras actuaciones judiciales producidas en el proceso inquisitorial contra Leonor en el año 1500, fecha en que fue descubierta una sinagoga secreta en casa del converso Miquel Vives, en la ciudad de Valencia, y su supuesta vinculación con Vives y su familia, la cual provocó su primera entrada en las cárceles de la Inquisición. También se examina la asombrosa lista de testigos presentados por la defensa de Leonor, lo que nos permite, desde un primer acercamiento a este proceso inquisitorial, reconstruir dos redes de sociabilidad muy diferenciadas en la Valencia de fines del siglo XV y principios del XVI.
Algunas observaciones sobre gestión judicial en América Latina
Authors: Mora Mora Luis Paulino
Published: September 2020

El Poder judicial en América Latina resulta muy criticado por parte de sus usuarios. Se trata de un sistema que no consigue responder a las demandas actuales de la población. La reforma del sistema de justicia se antoja necesaria desde la perspectiva del aumento de la eficiencia en la gestión judicial de los despachos. En el artículo se pretende resumir estas cuestiones junto con el anílisis de las reformas judiciales, principalmente en materia informática, llevadas a cabo en América Latina, con especial atención al caso costarricense.
ANÁLISE BIVARIADA, MULTIVARIADA E ESPACIAL DA OCORRÊNCIA DO SARS-CoV-2 NOS MUNICÍPIOS DO ESTADO DO PIAUÍ, NORDESTE DO BRASIL
Authors: Dos Santos Francílio de Amorim , Silveira Mendes Lúcia Maria
Published: September 2020

O estudo teve como objetivo realizar classificação e análise de um grupo de variáveis independentes – gênero (masculino e feminino), população residente (% da população com ≥ 65 anos), saúde (número de estabelecimentos) – associadas à variável dependente número de casos confirmados, para definição da similaridade dos municípios piauienses em relação à ocorrência do SARS-CoV-2. O estudo constitui uma pesquisa descritiva quanto a seu objetivo e empregou técnicas estatísticas para manuseio das informações referentes às variáveis elencadas, obtidas via banco de dados do IBGE e SESAPI. Os dados apontaram que no período de 18 de março a 05 de junho haviam 7.105 casos confirmados e 224 óbitos causados por SARS-CoV-2 no Piauí. A análise estatística apontou que o coeficiente de determinação se mostrou ótimo, pois apresentou valores acima de 0,9 em todos os casos, cuja variável mais fortemente correlacionada aos casos confirmados de covid-19 foi a população do sexo feminino, com coeficiente de correlação de 0,9913. A análise de agrupamentos apontou que nos clusters 1 agrupam-se municípios de pequeno porte, menor contingente populacional e menor quantitativo de estabelecimentos de saúde, enquanto nos clusters 5 ficou apenas o município de Teresina, capital do estado, que apresenta maior contingente populacional e número de estabelecimentos de saúde total.
VULNERABILIDADE E INCIDÊNCIA DA COVID-19 NO NORDESTE DO BRASIL ATRAVÉS DA ANÁLISE DE CLUSTER
Authors: Souza Marcelo Luis de Amorim , Marques Thiago Valentim , Amorim Maria Marla Paiva de
Published: September 2020

A COVID-19 tornou-se uma epidemia em proporção global. A maior susceptibilidade de disseminação da doença e da mortalidade relaciona-se a fatores sociodemográficos e a morbidades crônicas subjacentes. A doença tem apresentado grande impacto social e econômico, afetando diretamente à saúde das pessoas e, consequentemente, o mundo do trabalho. Objetivou-se criar perfis de vulnerabilidade demográfica e de morbidade à incidência da COVID-19 para os municípios do Nordeste do Brasil (NEB). Os dados são do IBGE e do Ministério da saúde, e as variáveis são:  densidade demográfica, taxa de urbanização, percentual de idosos acima de 60 anos e internações hospitalares de 2015 a 2019 – Tuberculose, AIDS, Diabetes, Obesidade e Asma.  Utilizou-se a análise de cluster, com objetivo de identificar padrões de similaridade entre os municípios do NEB. A vulnerabilidade é apresentada em quatro clusters: baixa, moderada, alta e crítica. Observou-se uma heterogeneidade na distribuição dos clusters com alta e crítica vulnerabilidades nas capitais, exceto Aracaju (SE). A maioria dos municípios polos de cada estado apresentou vulnerabilidade moderada. A “vulnerabilidade crítica” apresentou alta densidade demográfica, alta taxa de urbanização, alto percentual de idosos acima de 60 anos e alto número de internações de pessoas com asma, obesidades, AIDS, tuberculose e diabetes. A “vulnerabilidade baixa” foi constituída, em sua maioria, por municípios com baixa densidade demográfica, baixa urbanização e baixo número de internações correspondentes às doenças selecionadas, sendo o percentual de idosos acima de 60 anos o segundo maior. Os resultados poderão contribuir para refletir sobre políticas públicas de combate a surtos e de proteção social.
Kodrat Perempuan dan Al-Qur’an dalam konteks Indonesia Modern: Isyarat dan Persepsi
Authors: Kusmana Kusmana
Published: September 2020

Makalah ini mendiskusikan kodrat perempuan dalam al-Qur’an dalam isyarat dan persepsi penafsir dalam konteks modern. Dengan menggunakan deskriptif analitik, ayat-ayat al-Qur’an menginspirasi secara-relevan yang didiskusikan dari perspektif al-Qur’an dan persepsi penafsir serta pemikir. Dari keduanya tersebut menganalisis hubungan tafsir pemahaman atas ayat-ayat dan tafsir realitas sosial. Studi ini menemukan bahwa al-Qur’an mendiskusikan kodrat perempuan dalam dua sisi dalam sisi pengertian esensi dan pengertian empiris. Dalam pengertian esensial, al-Qur’an mendiskusikan kodrat perempuan dari sisi apa-apa yang terberi dari Allah secara dinamis. Dalam pengertian empiris, al-Qur’an mendiskusikan kodrat perempuan dari sisi praktik-praktik atau anggapan-anggapan manusia yang terekam dalam al-Qur’an. Sementara dari sisi persepsi, penafsir, dan pemikir Islam mendiskusikan kodrat perempuan dengan menjadikan al-Qur’an sebagai salah satu sumber inspirasi utama dan menarik pada pengertian esensial dan empiris. Hal tersebut sebagai tren umum dengan merasionalisasikan keadilan gender atas implikasi dari isyarat dan persepsi kodrat.[This article discusses the term kodrat Perempuan (woman's constructed nature) in the Qur'an in terms of its signs and the perception of Muslim interpreters in the modern context. Using a descriptive-analytic method, the related verses are discussed from both the Qur'anic and interpreters' perspective, analyzed within the relation between the Qur' anic perspective and social realities that inspire the interpreters. This study finds that the Qur'an discusses Kodrat Perempuan in two dimensions: essential as well as the empirical dimension. In its essential dimension, the Qur'an discusses Kodrat Perempuan from the point of what is given by Allah dynamically. In its empirical dimension, the Qur'an discusses it from the point of social practice or people's assumptions, which were recorded by in the Qur'an. Meanwhile, interpreters or Muslim thinkers discuss kodrat Perempuan by treating the Qur'an as one of their primary sources of inspiration and treat the discussed matter either to its essential or empirical dimension. With a general trend of rationalizing gender equity and its implication from the sign and the view of kodrat Perempuan.]
Desain Desentralisasi Asimetris Dalam Sistem Ketatanegaraan Republik Indonesia
Authors: Tauda Gunawan A
Published: September 2020

Abstract This study aims to know the design of asymmetric decentralization in the state administration system of the Republic of Indonesia. The research method used in the research is legal research that uses a conceptual approach. The results show that asymmetric decentralization in Indonesia is a historical continuity that has been started from the colonial period and confirmed to date in the 1945 Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia. As a reality of the practice of regional government, the constitutional juridical legitimacy of asymmetric decentralization can be referred to in Article 18A paragraph ( 1), and Article 18B paragraph (1) of the Constitution of the Republic of Indonesia as the supreme law of the land. Asymmetric decentralization concerns fundamental matters related to the pattern of relations between the center and the regions regarding different authority, institutional, financial and control designs. Keywords: Asymmetric Decentralization, State Administration System, Indonesian Government Abstrak Penelitian ini bertujuan utnuk menegtahui desain Desentralisasi Asimetris Dalam Sistem Ketatanegaraan Republik Indonesia. Metode penelitian yang digunakan dalam penelitian adalah penelitian hukung yang menggunakan pendekatan kosnep (conceptual approac). Hasil penelitian menujukan bahwa Desentralisasi asimetris di Indonesia merupakan sebuah keberlanjutan sejarah yang telah dimulai dari masa kolonial dan ditegaskan hingga saat ini dalam UUD NRI Tahun 1945. Sebagai sebuah realitas praktik pemerintahan daerah, legitimasi yuridis konstitusional dari desentralisasi asimetris tersebut dapat dirujuk dalam Pasal 18A ayat (1), dan Pasal 18B ayat (1) Konstitusi Republik Indonesia sebagai hukum tertinggi negara (the supreme law of the land). Desentralisasi asimetris menyangkut urusan yang fundamental terkait pola hubungan pusat dan daerah menyangkut desain kewenangan, kelembagaan, finansial dan kontrol yang berbeda. Kata Kunci: Desentralisasi Asimetris, Sistem Ketatanegaraan, Permerintah Indonesia
Politik Hukum yang Berorientasi pada Administrasi Kelautan dan Kemaritiman
Authors: Endri Endri
Published: September 2020

AbstractThe purpose of this study is to find out the politics of law, which is oriented to maritime and maritime administration. The writing method is a writing proposal, which is analyzed using qualitative analysis. The results of the research show that legal politics in the direction of development that will be achieved by the Indonesian state. As a state of law and as an archipelago, the legitimate politics of the Indonesian people are not yet fully oriented towards maritime and maritime affairs. Some regulations which are bound with naval affairs and naval affairs are not effective in law enforcement so that they need to be improved or revised, but they are not included in the legislation program. While the legislation programs that have been set up, there are still some that have not been achieved, especially regarding maritime affairs and maritime affairs.Keywords: Maritime Administration, Political Law, Indonesia. AbstrakTujuan kajian ini adalah untuk mengetahui politik hukum yang berorientasi pada administrasi kelautan dan kemaritiman. Metode penulisan adalah penulisan hukum yang dianalisis menggunakan analisis kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menjukan bahwa politik hukum merupakan arah pembangunan yang akan dicapai oleh negara Indonesia. Sebagai negara hukum dan sebagai negara kepulauan, politik hukum bangsa Indonesia belum sepenuhnya berorientasi pada kelautan dan kemaritiman. Beberapa peraturan yang terikat dengan kelautan dan kemaritiman tidak efektif dalam penegakan hukum sehingga perlu perbaikan atau revisi akan tetapi tidak masuk program legislasi. Sedangkan program legislasi yang telah ditetapkan pun masih ada yang belum tercapai khususnya tentang kelautan dan kemaritiman.Kata Kunci: Administrasi kelautan, Politik Hukum, Indonesia.
Prinsip Persiapan Penempatan dan Perlindungan Tenaga Kerja Indonesia di Luar Negeri
Authors: Suhartoyo Suhartoyo
Published: September 2020

Abstract This study aims to determine the principle of placement and protection of Indonesian workers in the country. This research is a normative legal research that is analyzed using qualitative analysis. The results showed that the Principle of Placement and Protection of Indonesian Workers Abroad is to place and protect Indonesian Workers abroad, i.e., a). Original but fake identity documents are socialized about the importance of the truth about identity data because this is very helpful and facilitates the management of various kinds of problems. Also, a continuous review, evaluation, and supervision of the completeness of the TKI's personal data are also carried out. The most important thing to do is sanctions and decisive action for those who have genuine but fake identity documents. b). Training Certificate, Health Test Certificate, False Competency Test Certificate. Urge relevant parties not to help pass migrant workers who do not meet graduation requirements in training, health testing, and competency tests to obtain falsified certificates. c). Employers who do not meet work agreements/wages are not paid. Faced with this matter, it will be submitted to the authorities who handle this so that this problem can be adequately resolved. Namely, the TKI receives his right to receive wage payments from the work of TKI with a specified amount of money. Keywords: Principles, Placement of Indonesian Workers, Overseas, Labor Abstrak  Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui prinsip penempatan dan perlindungan tenaga kerja indonesia di laur negeri. Penelitian ini adalah penelitian hukum normatif yang dianalisi menggunakan analisis kualitatif. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa Prinsip Penempatan dan Perlindungan Tenaga Kerja Indonesia di Luar Negeri adalah dengan melakukan penempatan dan perlindungan Tenaga Kerja Indonesia di luar negeri yaitu a). Dokumen jati diri asli tetapi palsu disosialisaikan tentang pentingnya kebenaran tentang data jati diri karena hal ini sangat membantu dan memudahkan pengurusan berbagai macam masalah. Selain itu juga terus menerus dilakukan peninjauan ulang, mengevaluasi, dan mengawasi kelengkapan data-data diri para TKI. Hal yang paling penting dilakukan adalah sanksi dan tindakan tegas bagi mereka yang memiliki dokumen jati diri asli tetapi palsu. b). Sertifikat Pelatihan, Sertifikat Uji Kesehatan, Sertifikat Uji Kompetensi yang dipalsukan. Menghimbau agar pihak yang terkait tidak membantu meloloskan TKI yang tidak memenuhi syarat kelulusan dalam pelatihan, uji kesehatan, dan uji kompetensi untuk memperoleh sertifikan yang dipalsukan. c). Majikan yang tidak memenuhi perjanjian kerja/upah tidak dibayar. Menghadapi hal ini maka akan diajukan kepada pihak yang berwenang yang menangani hal ini sehingga masalah ini dapat terselesaikan dengan baik yaitu TKI menerima haknya untuk menerima pembayaran upah dari hasil kerja TKI dengan sejumlah uang yang besarannya telah ditentukan. Kata Kunci: Prinsip, Penempatan Tenaga Kerja Indonesia, Luar Negeri, Ketenagakerjaan
ANALISIS KURVA SURVIVAL KAPLAN MEIER MENGGUNAKAN UJI LOG RANK (Studi Kasus :Pasien Penyakit Jantung Koroner di RSUD Undata Palu)
Authors: Suhartini Arianti , Rahmawati Rita , Suparti Suparti
Published: September 2020

Coronary heart disease is one of the leading causes of death in the world, including Indonesia. Based on doctor-diagnosed interviews, coronary heart disease’s prevalence in Indonesia on 2013 is 0,5% and based on a doctor-diagnosed is 1,5%. Central Sulawesi is ranked first and second for prevalence based on doctor-diagnosed interviews and doctor-diagnosed. The high number of people with coronary heart disease caused by lack of self-awareness in lifestyle changes. One of the parameters used to assess the success of treatment is the probability of survival. Survival analysis is a data analysis where the outcome of the variables studied is the time until an event occurs. This study raised the problem of survival of coronary heart patients at Undata Palu Hospital which is the main referral hospital for Central Sulawesi region. This research uses nonparametric method that is Kaplan Meier and Log Rank Test based on six factors are age, gender, stadium, disease status, complication and status of anemia. Nonparametric methods do not follow a particular distribution for survival time. Kaplan Meier's survival curve will describe the patient's characteristics of survival probability and followed by a Log Rank test to see if there are differences between curves. The result of analysis and discussion based on Log Rank test result showed that the factors of age, sex and disease status differ significantly. Keywords: Coronary heart disease, RSUD Undata Palu, Kaplan Meier analysis, Log Rank test.
MODEL KOMBINASI ARIMA DALAM PERAMALAN HARGA MINYAK MENTAH DUNIA
Authors: Setiyowati Eka , Rusgiyono Agus , Tarno Tarno
Published: September 2020

Oil is the most important commodity in everyday life, because oil is one of the main sources of energy that is needed for other people. Changes in crude oil prices greatly affect the economic conditions of a country.  Therefore, the aim of this study is develop an appropriate model for forecasting crude oil price based on the ARIMA and its ensembles. In this study, ensemble method uses some ARIMA models to create ensemble members which are then combined with averaging and stacking techniques. The data used are the price of world crude oil period 2003-2017. The results showed that ARIMA (1,1,0) model produces the smallest RMSE values for forecasting the next thirty six months. Keywords: Ensemble, ARIMA, Averaging, Stacking, Crude Oil Price
PEMODELAN JARINGAN SYARAF TIRUAN DENGAN CASCADE FORWARD BACKPROPAGATION PADA KURS RUPIAH TERHADAP DOLAR AMERIKA SERIKAT
Authors: Wigati Ekky Rosita Singgih , Warsito Budi , Rahmawati Rita
Published: September 2020

Neural Network Modeling (NN) is an information-processing system that has characteristics in common with human brain. Cascade Forward Neural Network (CFNN) is an artificial neural network that its architecture similar to Feed Forward Neural Network (FFNN), but there is also a direct connection from input layer and output layer. In this study, we apply CFNN in time series field. The data used isexchange rate of rupiah against US dollar period of January 1st, 2015 until December 31st, 2017. The best model was built from 1 unit input layer with input Zt-1, 4 neurons in the hidden layer, and 1 unit output layer. The activation function used are the binary sigmoid in the hidden layer and linear in the output layer. The model produces MAPE of training data equal to 0.2995% and MAPE of testing data equal to 0.1504%. After obtaining the best model, the data is foreseen for January 2018 and produce MAPE equal to0.9801%. Keywords: artificial neural network, cascade forward, exchange rate, MAPE
PERAMALAN INDEKS HARGA SAHAM GABUNGAN DENGAN METODE LOGISTIC SMOOTH TRANSITION AUTOREGRESSIVE (LSTAR)
Authors: Kresnawati Gayuh , Warsito Budi , Hoyyi Abdul
Published: September 2020

Smooth Transition Autoregressive (STAR) Model is one of time series model used in case of data that has nonlinear tendency. STAR is an expansion of Autoregressive (AR) Model and can be used if the nonlinear test is accepted. If the transition function G(st,γ,c) is logistic, the method used is Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR). Weekly IHSG data in period of 3 January 2010 until 24 December 2017 has nonlinier tend and logistic transition function so it can be modeled with LSTAR . The result of this research with significance level of 5% is the LSTAR(1,1) model. The forecast of IHSG data for the next 15 period has Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) 2,932612%. Keywords : autoregressive, LSTAR, nonlinier, time series
ANALISIS DAMPAK SHOCK VOLUME PERDAGANGAN SAHAM PADA INDEKS HARGA SAHAM CONSUMER GOODS DENGAN STRUCTURAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (SVAR)
Authors: Kharismawan Infan Nur , Santoso Rukun , Warsito Budi
Published: September 2020

The stock trading in the capital market will result daily volume of trading stock that impact on stock price. One of the indicators that describes the stock price movement is stock index. There are many types of stock index, one of them is consumer goods stock index. Stock index is a sensitive economic variable affected by shock and need a restriction to form its economic model. Based on that, Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) is used to describe its economic model. SVAR is formed by a stable VAR, fulfilled white noise, k-variate normal distribution. The purpose of this study are to forecast data on each variables and analyze the impact of the shock through the descriptions of variance decomposition. VAR used as the basis for SVAR is VAR(8) whose the forming variable stationary at the first different degree. Performances of forecasting SVAR using MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) for in sample data are 13.87434% (volume of trading stock) and 0.87045% (consumer goods stock index) and for out sample data are 14.22964% (volume of trading stock) and 1.76054% (consumer goods stock index). Response of consumer goods stock index to the impact of the volume of trading stock shock shown by proportion of variance decomposition tends to increase, while the shock by itself has decreased until reach its equilibrium point. Keywords:cosumer goods stock index, SVAR, variance decomposition, volume of trading stock
PERAMALAN EKSPOR NONMIGAS DENGAN VARIASI KALENDER ISLAM MENGGUNAKAN X-13-ARIMA-SEATS (Studi Kasus: Ekspor Nonmigas Periode Januari 2013 sampai Desember 2017)
Authors: Lestari Eka , Widiharih Tatik , Rahmawati Rita
Published: September 2020

Non-oil and gas exports are one of the largest foreign exchange earners for Indonesia. Non-oil and gas exports always experience a decline in the month of Eid Al-Fitr due to delays in the delivery of export goods because the loading and unloading of goods at the port is reduced during Eid Al-Fitr. The shift of the Eid Al-Fitr month on the data will form a pattern or season with an unequal period called the moving holiday effect. The time series forecasting method that usually used the ARIMA method. Because the ARIMA method only suitable for time series data with the same seasonal period and can’t handle the moving holiday effect, the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS method used two steps. First, regARIMA modeling is a linear regression between time series data and the weight of Eid Al-Fitr and the residuals follow the ARIMA process. The weighting is based on three conditions, namely pre_holiday, post_holiday, and multiple. Second, X-12-ARIMA decomposition method for seasonal adjustments that produces trend-cycle components, seasonal, and irregular. Based on the analysis carried out on the monthly non-oil and gas export data for the period January 2013 to December 2017, the X-13-ARIMA-SEATS (1,1,0) model was obtained in the post_holiday condition as the best model. The forecasting results in 2018 show the largest decline in non-oil and gas exports in June 2018 which coincided with the Eid Al-Fitr holiday. MAPE value of 10.90% is obtained which shows that the forecasting ability is good.Keywords:  time series, non-oil and gas, X-13-ARIMA-SEATS, moving holiday
COPULA FRANK PADA VALUE at RISK (VaR) PEMBENTUKAN PORTOFOLIO BIVARIAT (Studi Kasus : Saham-Saham Perusahaan yang Meraih Predikat The IDX Top Ten Blue Tahun 2017 dengan Periode Saham 20 Oktober 2014 – 28 Februari 2018)
Authors: Handini Juria Ayu , Maruddani Di Asih I , Safitri Diah
Published: September 2020

The capital market has an important role in society to invest in financial instruments. Investors can invest in the form of a portfolio that is by combining several shares to reduce the risk that will occur. Value at Risk (VaR) is a method for estimating the worst risk of an investment. GARCH (Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity) is used to model high-volatile stock data that causes residual variance is not constant. Copula theory is a powerful tool for modeling joint distributions because it does not require normality assumptions that are difficult to fulfill in financial data. Copula Frank has a feature that can identify positive and negative dependencies. This study aims to measure the value of VaR using the Frank-GARCH copula method using stock returns data of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia, Tbk (BBRI), PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia, Tbk (TLKM), and PT. Unilever Indonesia, Tbk (UNVR) for the period 20 October 2014 - 28 February. Bivariate portfolio pairs obtained namely TLKM and UNVR shares because they have the highest Rho Spearman residual correlation value of ρ = 0.3204. Based on the generation of data using Monte Carlo simulations, the results of the calculation of Value at Risk (VaR) of 1.40% at the 90% confidence level, 1.89% at the 95% confidence level, and 2.79% at the 99% confidence level. Keywords: Value at Risk, Frank copula, GARCH, Monte Carlo
PENGEMBANGAN ESTIMASI PARAMETER PADA METODE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING HOLT-WINTERS ADDITIVE MENGGUNAKAN METODE OPTIMASI GOLDEN SECTION (Studi Kasus: Wisatawan Mancanegara yang Menggunakan Jasa Akomodasi di DIY)
Authors: Al Qarani Muhammad Aqajahs , Santoso Rukun , Safitri Diah
Published: September 2020

Forecasting is an activity to estimate what will happen in the future, one method that can be used is Exponential Smoothing. In this study used the smoothing method of Exponential Smoothing Holt-Winters Additive with three parameters that can be used for prediction of time series data that has trend patterns and seasonal patterns. The problem that arises in this method is to determine the optimum parameter to minimize the forecast error value. This study uses the Golden Section optimization method to estimate the optimum parameters that minimize the MAPE value. The data used is data on foreign tourists who use accommodation services in Yogyakarta from the period January 2009 to December 2016 that have trend patterns and additive seasonal patterns. In simplifying the optimization calculation process, a syntax using RStudio is arranged which contains the Golden Section algorithm to determine the combination that has the optimum parameters. In this optimization there are two treshold error, namely 0.001 and 0.00001. The results showed that the parameter estimator with the Golden Section method for the treshold error of 0.001 obtained MAPE of 18,96732% and for treshold error of 0.00001 MAPE was 18,96536%. This value is in the same MAPE criteria which is 10% ─ 20% (good) so that the selection of the best model is determined based on minimal iteration. Therefore the weighting parameter value used is the result of optimization with ε ≤ 0.001, then from the selected model it is used to predict the number of foreign tourists using accommodation services in Yogyakarta in the next 12 months.
HISTORICAL SIMULATION UNTUK MENGHITUNG VALUE AT RISK PADA PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL BERDASARKAN SINGLE INDEX MODEL MENGGUNAKAN GUI MATLAB (Studi Kasus: Kelompok Saham JII Periode Juni - November 2017)
Authors: Nuryanto Tresno Sayekti , Prahutama Alan , Hoyyi Abdul
Published: September 2020

The essence of investment is a placement of a number of funds at one time in hope of gaining profits in the future. One of the most traded forms of investment is stocks. When investing in stocks, investors often run the risk of loss. This loss risk can be overcome by forming a portfolio consisting of several shares. To form an optimal portfolio, investors must first determine an efficient portfolio that produces a certain level of profit with the lowest risk, or a certain level of risk with the highest level of profit. One method for determining the optimal portfolio is to use the Single Index Model method. Whereas to calculate Value at Risk (VaR) using the Historical Simulation method. In this study, researcher used data from the daily closing price of shares incorporated in the Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) stock group in the period of June - November 2017. The shares which will be used were 9 shares in the JII stock group. According to the research result, there are three stocks that go into an optimal portfolio that is SMGR, UNTR, and KLBF with the value of each of its shares respectively by 48,54%, 46,18%, and 5,28%. While the value of the Value at Risk with initial capital of Rp100.000.000, 1 day holding period and a trust level of 95% for optimal portfolio and each stock that goes into optimal portfolio amounted Rp2.090.283, Rp2.258.600, Rp3.403.000, and Rp2.564.200. Keywords: Share, Portofolio, Single Index Model, Value at Risk, Historical Simulation, JII.
PENGUKURAN KINERJA PORTOFOLIO OPTIMAL CAPITAL ASSET PRICING MODEL (CAPM) DAN ARBITRAGE PRICING THEORY (APT) (Studi Kasus : Saham-saham LQ45)
Authors: Pasaribu Dedi Baleo , Maruddani Di Asih I , Sugito Sugito
Published: September 2020

Investing is placing money or funds in the hope of obtaining additional or specific gains on the money or funds. The capital market is one place to invest in the financial field of interest to investor. This is because the capital market gives investor the freedom to choose securities traded in the capital market in accordance with the wishes of investor. Investor are included in risk averter, that means investor will always try to avoid risk. To avoid risk, investor try to diversify their investment. Diversification concept commonly used is portfolio. To maximize the return to be earned, the investor will invest his funds into several stocks in order to earn a greater profit. Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) is a balance model that describes the relation of a risk with return more simply because it uses only one variable to describe the risk. Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) is a balance model that used many risk variables to see the relation of risk and return. With both models will be obtained a portfolio with each constituent stock is four stocks selected from 45 stocks in the LQ45 index. To find out which portfolio is the best performed a performance analysis using the Sharpe index. From the measurement result, it is found that the best portfolio is the CAPM portfolio with composite stock is PTBA with investment weight of 0.467%, BUMI with investment weight of 12.855%, ANTM with investment weight of 53.077% and PPRO with investment weight of 33.601%. Keywords: LQ45, portfolio, Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM), Arbitrage Pricing Theory                       (APT), Sharpe Index
PEMODELAN REGRESI POISSON BIVARIAT PADA JUMLAH KEMATIAN IBU HAMIL DAN NIFAS DI JAWA TENGAH TAHUN 2017
Authors: Putri Arbella Maharani , Prahutama Alan , Warsito Budi
Published: September 2020

The maternal mortality rate is one of the indicators that determine the prosperity level of society in a country. Most of the maternal mortality caused by pregnancy maternal mortality and postpartum maternal mortality. Central Java is one of the provinces with the biggest number of pregnancy maternal mortality and postpartum maternal mortality in Indonesia. The number of pregnancy maternal mortality and postpartum maternal mortality follow Poisson Distribution and it has a significant correlation. Therefore, the writer analyzed factor that influences the number of pregnancy maternal mortality and postpartum maternal mortality using Univariate and Bivariate Poisson Regression method. Results from this study obtained that in the Univariate Poisson Regression variables that significantly influence pregnancy maternal mortality and postpartum maternal mortality are the percentage of pregnant women implementing K1 (X1), percentage of childbirth women that has puerperal health service (X6) and percentage of household with clean and healthy behavior (X7). In the Bivariate Poisson, the best model is the second model which assuming that covariance is an equation.Keywords: Pregnancy of Maternal Mortality, Postpartum Maternal Mortality, Bivariate Poisson Regression.
ANALISIS VARIANSI PADA RANCANGAN BUJUR SANGKAR YOUDEN DENGAN DUA DATA HILANG
Authors: Dewi Amalina Sari , Widiharih Tatik , Rahmawati Rita
Published: September 2020

Youden Square Design (YSD) is an incomplete latin square design with at least one row/column which can’t run in an experiment. In this research we took 5x4 YSD (one column is not runned in an experiment). This design has a balance characteristic from a balanced incomplete block design where all treatments appears with the same number in each row. Missing data can occur in YSD. In this discussion, YSD with two missing data was used. Missing data is estimated by an iterative method then we arrange analysis of variance and LSD test. Analysis of variance with two missing data in YSD is calculated by adjusting the treatment sum of squares with it’s bias value and the total degrees of freedom and error degrees of freedom are substracted by two. LSD test is carried out if the treatment has a significant effect to the response. To clarify the discussion in YSD, example of application in the field of industry is given by observing the effect of the assembly method to the length of assembly time of X component. The assembly method has an effect to the length of assembly time of X component and if the missing data are  and  so the suggested assembly method is E method because it has the fastest average assembly time. Keywords: YSD, Missing Data, Analysis of Variance, LSD Test
PEMODELAN REGRESI HURDLE POISSON DALAM MENGATASI EXCESS ZEROS UNTUK KASUS PENYAKIT TETANUS NEONATORUM PADA NEONATAL DI JAWA TIMUR
Authors: Margaretha Cylvia Evasari , Ispriyanti Dwi , Widiharih Tatik
Published: September 2020

Tetanus Neonatorum is one of the infectious diseases that occur in newborns caused by Clostridium Tetani bacteria through cuts or scratches. The number of Tetanus Neonatorum cases in East Java Province in 2017 is discrete data Poisson distribution with a proportion of zero value of 73,7 percent. The amount of zero value data can result in overdispersion where the variance is greater than the mean. To overcome this problem, Hurdle Poisson regression model is a solution. To estimation of regression parameters for Hurdle Poisson regression is using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) method and Broyden Fletcher Goldfarb Shanno (BFGS) iteration. Hurdle Poisson regression produces predictor variables that affect the number of Tetanus Neonatorum cases in East Java Province in the logit model are the percentage of pregnant women administered the K4 program, population density per  and in the truncated Poisson model are the percentage of labor assisted by health workers the percentage of pregnant women administered the K4 program, population density per  with the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) value of 78,422.Keywords: Tetanus Neonatorum, Excess Zeros, Overdispersion, Hurdle Poisson Regression
KLASIFIKASI CALON DEBITUR KREDIT PEMILIKAN RUMAH (KPR) MULTIGUNA TAKE OVER MENGGUNAKAN METODE k NEAREST NEIGHBOR DENGAN PEMBOBOTAN GLOBAL GINI DIVERSITY INDEX
Authors: Hasimah Inas , Mukid Moch. Abdul , Yasin Hasbi
Published: September 2020

House credit (KPR) is a credit facilities for buying or other comsumptive needs with house warranty. The warranty for KPR is the house that will be purchased. The warranty for KPR multiguna take over is the house that will be owned by debtor, and then debtor is taking over KPR to another financial institution. For fulfilled the credit to prospective debtor is done by passing through the process of credit application and credit analysis. With the credit analysis, will acknowledge the ability of debtor for repay a credit. Final decision of credit application is classified into approved and refused. k Nearest Neighbor by attributes weighting using Global Gini Diversity Index is a statistical method that can be used to classify the credit decision of prospective debtor. This research use 2443 data of KPR multiguna take over’s prospective debtor in 2018 with credit decision of prospective debtor as dependent variable and four selected independent variable such as home ownership status, job, loans amount, and income.  The best classification result of k-NN by Global Gini Diversity Index weighting is when using 80% training data set and 20% testing data set with k=7 obtained  APER value 0,0798 and accuracy 92,02%. Keywords: KPR Multiguna Take Over, Classification, KNN by Global Gini Diversity Index weighting, Evaluation of Classification
PERBANDINGAN METODE NAÏVE BAYES DAN BAYESIAN REGULARIZATION NEURAL NETWORK (BRNN) UNTUK KLASIFIKASI SINYAL PALSU PADA INDIKATOR STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR (Studi Kasus: Saham PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk Periode Januari 2017 – Agustus 2019)
Authors: Marianto Fredy Yoseph , Tarno Tarno , Maruddani Di Asih I
Published: September 2020

Keputusan untuk membeli atau menjual saham merupakan kunci utama untuk memperoleh keuntungan dalam trading dan investasi. Salah satu indikator yang dapat digunakan dalam menentukan momentum untuk membeli atau menjual saham adalah Stochastic Oscillator. Sebagai indikator yang sensitif terhadap pergerakan harga saham, Stochastic Oscillator sering mengeluarkan sinyal palsu yang mengakibatkan kerugian dalam transaksi. Terdapat 9 atribut yang diduga dapat mengidentifikasi apakah suatu sinyal yang keluar dari indikator Stochastic Oscillator merupakan sinyal palsu atau tidak. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah melakukan klasifikasi atau deteksi sinyal dengan metode Naïve Bayes dan Bayesian Regularization Neural Network (BRNN), dan kemudian membandingkan tingkat akurasi hasil klasifikasi antara kedua metode. Hasil dari penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa hanya terdapat 6 atribut yang dapat digunakan untuk mengidentifikasi apakah suatu sinyal yang keluar merupakan sinyal palsu atau tidak, yaitu kondisi IHSG, kondisi high price, kondisi low price, kondisi close price, posisi %K, dan posisi %D, serta tingkat akurasi dari metode Naïve Bayes adalah sebesar 76,92%, sedangkan akurasi dari metode BRNN adalah sebesar 80,77%. Dapat disimpulkan bahwa dalam penelitian ini, metode BRNN lebih baik dibandingkan dengan metode Naïve Bayes untuk mendeteksi sinyal palsu yang keluar dari indikator Stochastic Oscillator.Kata kunci: Stochastic Oscillator, Sinyal Palsu, Klasifikasi, Naïve Bayes, BRNN, Akurasi
PENERAPAN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK DENGAN OPTIMASI MODIFIED ARTIFICIAL BEE COLONY UNTUK MERAMALKAN HARGA BITCOIN TERHADAP RUPIAH
Authors: Ilmawan Di Mokhammad Hakim , Warsito Budi , Sugito Sugito
Published: September 2020

Bitcoin is one of digital assets that can be used to make a profit. One of the ways to use Bitcoin profitly is to trade Bitcoin. At trade activities, decisions making whether to buy or not are very crucial. If we can predict the price of Bitcoin in the future period, we can make a decisions whether to buy Bitcoin or not. Artificial Neural Network can be used to predict Bitcoin price data which is time series data. There are many learning algorithm in Artificial Neural Network, Modified Artificial Bee Colony is one of optimization algorithm that used to solve the optimal weight of Artificial Neural Network. In this study, the Bitcoin exchage rate against Rupiah starting September 1, 2017 to January 4, 2019 are used. Based on the training results obtained that MAPE value is 3,12% and the testing results obtained that MAPE value is 2,02%. This represent that the prediction results from Artificial Neural Network optimized by Modified Artificial Bee Colony algorithm are quite accurate because of small MAPE value.
SEGMENTASI PELANGGAN E-MONEY DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA DBSCAN (DENSITY BASED SPATIAL CLUSTERING APPLICATIONS WITH NOISE) DI PROVINSI DKI JAKARTA
Authors: Rohalidyawati Windy , Rahmawati Rita , Mustafid Mustafid
Published: September 2020

Customer segmentation is one effective way of marketing to determine the most potential target market. Increasing of E-money usage in DKI Jakarta and more banks are providing E-money products. One way to be able to compete in the global market, banks can segment customers. Determining potential customers of E-money users in DKI Jakarta can form segments by applying the DBSCAN (Density Based Spatial Clustering Application with Noise) algorithm. The quality of segments was measured by using the Silhouette Coefficient. In this study, E-money customers were grouped by reason of using the bank used, transaction activities, number of transactions, nominal balance, and frequency of top-up. The results of this study were using the density radius of 2 and  minimum 3 objects that enter the density radius forming 2 segments and 17 noises. The segment quality value of 0.26. The most potential segment was the segment that has an average greater than the average of all data.
VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE STABILITY CONDITION CHECK UNTUK PEMODELAN DAN PREDIKSI SUMBER PENERIMAAN PABEAN BELAWAN
Authors: Sinulingga Mia Anastasia , Maruddani Di Asih I , Hoyyi Abdul
Published: September 2020

Customs Intermediate are an institution that is responsible for regulating the flow of export and import trade activities in the Customs Area with the revenue coming from import duties and export duties. The time series data from the customs acceptance component import dan export which have a relationship between variables. Vector Autoregressive is a statistical method used in predicting and evaluating interrelationships between variables. The purpose of this study is to obtain a model for predicting import and export by using the VAR model and detecting the stability of the model. Model requirements are said to be stable if all modulus values from roots characteristic of coefficient matrices ≤ 1 that the predicted results can be verified. The data is divided into in sample data starting from January 2010 to June 2018 and out sample data starts from July 2018 until December 2018. The results of data analysis in this study, the model obtained for prediction is the VAR model (4) and there is a direct relationship between both variables. The VAR (4) residual model fulfills the assumption of white noise, while the assumption of multivariate normality is not fulfilled. Based on out sample the value of MAPE for import variables 18.42%, export 12.94% shows the VAR model (4) has good predictive capabilities that can be used for predicting future periods. Predicted results on import show fluctuations during the period of January to December 2019 while in the export shows increase during the period of January to December 2019.
Nested PCR methods for detection Toxoplasma gondii B1 gene in Cerebrospinal Fluid of HIV patients
Authors: Halleyantoro Ryan , Andriyani Yunilda , Sari Ika Puspa , Kurniawan Agnes
Published: September 2020

Background: Toxoplasmosis is a disease caused by infection of Toxoplasma gondii, Which may cause a life-threatening condition in immunocompromised patients, for example, Toxoplasma encephalitis (TE). It is challenging to diagnose Toxoplasma as a cause of central nervous system (CNS) infection in HIV patient, so we need an alternative method, which is a PCR detection of Toxoplasma gondii B1 gene.Objective: This research aimed to find association between PCR methods for Toxoplasma gondii B1 gene and anti-Toxoplasma IgG from cerebral spinal fluid patient HIV AIDS.Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted to Cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) samples of HIV patients with neurological symptoms to determine Toxoplasma gondii infection using nested PCR methods for the B1 gene and detection of anti-Toxoplasma IgG.Results: 88 CSF samples from HIV patients tested using nested PCR showed 23 samples (26,1%) were positive. Serologic test for IgG Toxoplasma showed 34 samples were positive (28,6%). There was a significant correlation (p=0.000(<0.05) between PCR result and a serologic test for IgG Toxoplasma.Conclusion: Nested PCR methods to detect B1 gene increased the accuracy of diagnosis for toxoplasma encephalitis.