Permafrost coverage, watershed area and season control of dissolved carbon and major elements in western Siberian rivers
Authors: Pokrovsky O. S. , Manasypov R. M. , Loiko S. , Shirokova L. S. , Krivtzov I. A. , Pokrovsky B. G. , Kolesnichenko L. G. , Kopysov S. G. , Zemtzov V. A. , Kulizhsky S. P. , Vorobiev S. N. , Kirpotin S. N. 
Published: July 2015

Abstract. Analysis of dissolved organic and inorganic carbon (DOC and DIC, respectively), pH, Na, K, Ca, Mg, Cl, SO4 and Si in ~ 100 large and small rivers (< 100 to ≤ 150 000 km2) of western Siberia sampled in winter, spring, summer and autumn over a more than 1500 km latitudinal gradient allowed for establishing the main environmental factors controlling the transport of dissolved river components in this environmentally important region, comprising continuous, discontinuous, sporadic and permafrost-free zones. There was significant latitudinal trend consisting in general decrease of DOC, DIC, SO4, and major cation (Ca, Mg, Na, K) concentrations northward, reflecting the interplay between groundwater feeding (detectable mostly in the permafrost-free zone, south of 60° N) and surface flux (in the permafrost-bearing zone). The trend of inorganic components was mostly pronounced in winter and less visible in spring, whereas for DOC, the trend of concentration decrease with latitude was absent in winter, and less pronounced in the spring flood than in the summer baseflow. The latitudinal trends persisted over all river watershed sizes, from < 100 to > 10 000 km2. This suggested that in addition to groundwater feeding of the river, there was a significant role of surface and shallow subsurface flow linked to plant litter degradation and peat leaching. Environmental factors are ranked by their increasing effect on DOC, DIC, δ13CDIC, and major elements in western Siberian rivers as the following: watershed area < season < latitude. Seasonal fluxes of dissolved components did not significantly depend on the river size and as such could be calculated as a~function of watershed latitude. Unexpectedly, the DOC flux remained stable around 3 t km−2 yr−1 until 61° N, decreased two-fold in the discontinuous permafrost zone (62–66° N), and increased again to 3 t km−2 yr−1 in the continuous permafrost zone (67° N). The DIC, Mg, K and Ca followed this pattern. The total dissolved cation flux (TDS_c) ranged from 1.5 to 5.5 t km−2 yr−1, similar to that in central Siberian rivers of the continuous permafrost region. While Si concentration was almost unaffected by the latitude over all seasons, the Si flux systematically increased northward, suggesting a decreasing role of secondary mineral formation in soil and of vegetation uptake. The dominating effect of latitude cannot however be interpreted solely in terms of permafrost abundance and water flow path (deep vs. surface) but has to be considered in the context of different climate, plant biomass productivity, unfrozen peat thickness and peat chemical composition. It can be anticipated that, under climate warming in western Siberia, the maximal change will occur in small (< 1000 km2 watershed) rivers DOC, DIC and ionic composition, and this change will be mostly pronounced in summer and autumn. The wintertime concentrations and spring flood fluxes and concentrations are unlikely to be appreciably affected by the change of the active layer depth and terrestrial biomass productivity. Assuming a conservative precipitation scenario and rising temperature over next few centuries, the annual fluxes of DOC and K in the discontinuous permafrost zone may see a maximum increase by a factor of 2, whereas for DIC and Mg, this increase may achieve a factor of 3. The fluxes of Ca and TDS_c may increase by a factor of 5. At the same time, Si fluxes will either remain constant or decrease two-fold in the permafrost-bearing zone relative to the permafrost-free zone of western Siberia.