bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Insights on the tectonic styles across Estonia using satellite potential fields derived from WGM-2012 gravity data and EMAG2 magnetic data.
Authors: Solano Acosta Juan David , Hints Rutt , Soesoo Alvar
Published: March 2022

The nature of the Estonian crust was studied using global topography, magnetic data, and gravity data to estimate its tectonic regime. The Estonian Precambrian crystalline basement, composed of Paleo- to MesoProterozoic metamorphic and igneous rocks, is covered by a Paleozoic sedimentary rock deposit 100–780 m thick. To visualize crustal sources of the Estonian basement, we employed spectrum analysis of magnetic and gravity data, as well as two-dimensional (2D) forward modeling of gravity data. The gravimetric data was also evaluated to identify the depth of the Moho and Conrad discontinuities in Estonia. The magnetic data has also been evaluated to calculate the Curie point depth, which was then utilized to predict heat flow values inside the research zone. The subsurface of Estonia is divided into six petrological-structural zones: Tallinn, Alutaguse, Johvi, West-Estonian, Tapa and South-Estonian. To assess the structural variations of the crust at these locations, profiles of topographic, gravity, magnetic and heat flow data were constructed in each of the petrological-structural zones. The spectrum analysis and 2D gravity forward models yielded residual and regional gravity anomaly maps that show a significant amplitude potential maximum across the precambrian Rapakivi granitoid plutons and the Paldiski-Pskov tectonic zone. The Curie point depth reveals values ranging from 7 to 26 km, whereas the Moho depth suggests values ranging from 48 to 72 km and the Conrad depth values ranging from 14 to 20 km.
2008-2020 lidar measurements of Polar Stratospheric Clouds at the French antarctic station Dumont d’Urville
Authors: Jumelet Julien , Tencé Florent , Sarkissian Alain
Published: March 2022

Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) are precursors in the polar stratospheric ozone depletion processes. Aside from recent improvements in both spaceborne PSCs monitoring and classification as well as investigations on microphysics and modeling, there are still uncertainties associated to solid particle formation and their denitrification potential. Besides, complex pathways in PSC formation microphysics lead to mixtures of particles with different optical properties and chemical efficiencies. In that regard, groundbased instruments deliver detailed and valuable measurements that complement the global spaceborne coverage especially in areas near the vortex edge where spaceborne coverage is more difficult and PSC fields present finer structures, especially regarding altitude, similar to the Arctic.

Operated at the French antarctic station Dumont d’Urville (DDU) in the frame of the international Network for the Detection of Atmospheric Composition Change (NDACC), the Rayleigh/Mie/Raman stratospheric lidar provides a solid dataset to feed both process and classification studies, by monitoring cloud and aerosol occurrences in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere. Located on the antarctic shore (66°S - 140°E), the station has a privileged access to polar vortex dynamics and also recorded persistent signatures of the 2019/2020 Australian originated wildfires.

We hereby present a consolidated dataset from 10 years of lidar measurements using the 532nm backscatter ratio, the aerosol depolarisation and local atmospheric conditions to help in building an aerosol/cloud classification based on existing works using 2008-2020 data.

Overall, the DDU PSC pattern is very consistent with expected typical temperature controlled microphysical calculations. Outside of background sulfate aerosols and anomalies related to volcanic activity (like in 2015), Supercooled Ternary Solution (STS) particles are the most observed particle type, closely followed by Nitric Acid Trihydrate (NAT). ICE clouds are less but regularly observed. ICE clouds also have to be cleary separated from cirrus clouds, raising the issue of accurate tropopause calculations.

Validation of the spaceborne classification schemes as well as careful speciation of the multiple signatures of volcanic or biomass originated aerosol plumes strengthens the need for groundbased monitoring especially in polar regions.
On the need of considering the uncertainty cascade for decision making on climate-change adaptation to coastal erosion
Authors: Toimil Alexandra , Losada Iñigo J. , Álvarez-Cuesta Moisés
Published: March 2022

Climate change is posing growing risks to coastal areas exacerbating the problems these systems already face. One of these problems is coastal erosion, which happens at two different time scales. On one hand, mean sea-level rise leads to the chronic loss of beach surface; on the other, the combined effect of waves, storm surges and tides causes episodic erosion, which due to this increase in mean sea level will become more frequent. In light of this, while some systems will be able to undergo a landward retreat, others will suffer from coastal squeeze, which occurs when an eroding coast approaches seawalls or resistant natural cliffs, leading to adverse impacts to both environment and society. Coastal erosion risks need to be addressed with adaptation, and this is particularly challenged by the high uncertainty in climate change-related erosion forcing conditions. Expanding scientific knowledge of uncertainty treatment in climate-change coastal erosion projections is thus key to effective decision making (Toimil et al., 2021a). Here, we show progress on decomposition, factorisation, attribution, and visualisation of the uncertainty sources involved in shoreline change projections, which arise from climate-change scenarios, climate models, and erosion models, and cascade through the complete impact modelling process. This uncertainty accumulates in coastal erosion estimates, is further inherited by erosion risks and can highly influence adaptation planning (Toimil et al., 2021b).

Toimil A, Camus P, Losada IJ, Álvarez-Cuesta M (2021a) Visualising the uncertainty cascade in multi-ensemble probabilistic coastal erosion projections. Front. Mar. Sci. 8:683535.

Toimil A, Losada IJ, Hinkel J, Nicholls RJ (2021b) Using quantitative dynamic adaptive policy pathways to manage climate change-induced coastal erosion. Clim. Risk Manag. 33, 100342.
Histroy Matching for the tuning of coupled models: experiments on the Lorenz 96 model
Authors: Lguensat Redouane , Deshayes Julie , Balaji Venkatramani
Published: March 2022

The process of relying on experience and intuition to find good sets of parameters, commonly referred to as "parameter tuning" keeps having a central role in the roadmaps followed by dozens of modeling groups involved in community efforts such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). 

In this work, we study a tool from the Uncertainty Quantification community that started recently to draw attention in climate modeling: History Matching also referred to as "Iterative Refocussing". The core idea of History Matching is to run several simulations with different set of parameters and then use observed data to rule-out any parameter settings which are "implausible". Since climate simulation models are computationally heavy and do not allow testing every possible parameter setting, we employ an emulator that can be a cheap and accurate replacement. Here a machine learning algorithm, namely, Gaussian Process Regression is used for the emulating step. History Matching is then a good example where the recent advances in machine learning can be of high interest to climate modeling.

One objective of this study is to evaluate the potential for history matching to tune a climate system with multi-scale dynamics. By using a toy climate model, namely, the Lorenz 96 model, and producing experiments in perfect-model setting, we explore different types of applications of HM and highlight the strenghts and challenges of using such a technique. 
Rapid characterization of tsunami sources with GNSS-TEC ionospheric monitoring 
Authors: Rolland Lucie , Munaibari Edhah , Zedek Florian , Anthony Sladen , Mikesell T. Dylan , Pierdavide Coïsson , Bertrand Delouis
Published: March 2022

Large earthquakes strongly shake the upper atmosphere, leaving distinctive signatures in total electron content (TEC) measured using GNSS trans-ionospheric monitoring. The ionosphere is particularly sensitive to brutal uplift motions of the ground or sea surface, triggering upward propagating mechanical waves. In specific conditions that we will detail in this presentation, GNSS-TEC measurements contain critical information on the immediate consequences of an earthquake. If accurate and provided rapidly, independent knowledge of the sea surface deformation extent and distribution could feed tsunami early warning systems.

Radio waves emitted by GNSS satellites integrate the ionospheric electron density wavefield along their propagation path. At ground level, GNSS receivers can only sense the TEC, which contains the contribution of the ionospheric wavefronts. These wavefronts are destructively or constructively integrated, depending on the involved geometry of observation. In some conditions, even a close station will not sense the TEC perturbation, while a station located 200 km away will sense large TEC fluctuations. This complex behavior mainly depends on the line-of-sight 3D geometry crossing the electron density perturbation. To study how this geometry can affect the estimation of the generating motion, we first build TEC sensitivity maps and highlight more blind or sensitive zones at the Earth’s surface. We apply the procedure to past tsunamigenic earthquakes at mid and low latitudes. Those are the 2010 Mw 7.6 Mentawaii earthquake (Indonesia), the 2016 Mw 7.8 Kaikoura earthquake (New Zealand), and the 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule earthquake (Chile). The TEC sensitivity maps allow us to investigate how the reciprocal locations of the available GNSS stations and satellites can affect the localization of the origin of the ionospheric disturbances. In a second step, we build localization maps with a full waveform method (IonoSeis software) and, where possible, with a time delay fitting method. We compare the resulting maps with the Earth’s surface deformation distribution estimated by more conventional seismo-geodetic methods. We finally show how the extension and densification of GNSS networks with multi-GNSS low-cost receivers and enhanced ionosphere monitoring could help mitigate tsunamis better.
Inundation Impacts on Agriculture: Reconstruction and Preliminary Findings of the Recent Event occurred along the Panaro River
Authors: Borzì Iolanda , Magnini Andrea , Monteleone Beatrice , Giusti Riccardo , Petruccelli Natasha , Marinelli Ludovica , Arosio Marcello , Domeneghetti Alessio , Castellarin Attilio , Martina Mario
Published: March 2022

The estimation of flood damage plays a key role for planning and implementing flood risk prevention and mitigation measures. While many contributions can be found in the scientific literature about inundation damage to buildings and infrastructures, estimation of losses to the agricultural sector is currently poorly discussed. Even if different conceptual or physically based models have been proposed for the agricultural sector as well, studies testing their application to real cases are still not sufficiently abundant due to the difficulties in finding appropriate inundation and damage data. The present work attempts to contribute in this matter by investigating the impacts of a recent inundation event: the selected case study is the flood event occurred the 6th December 2020 in Northern Italy (Emilia-Romagna region), caused by the formation of a breach on the right levee of the Panaro River. The area is mainly devoted to agriculture, with farmers growing prevalently winter wheat, sorghum and forage crops, such as alfalfa. The inundation footprint has been reproduced by means of a detailed 2D hydraulic model settled with HEC-RAS software (v. 6.0). The model focuses on the accurate reproduction of water depth and permanence required for the estimation of damages to agriculture activities. Model validation refers to different observed data: (a) inundation extent, (b) maximum water depth and (c) duration of water presence; data has been collected from various sources: remote sensing images, surveys to local land owners and interviews to authorities involved in the inundation management. Although representative of a preliminary investigation, the study provides additional insights towards a better estimation of potential impacts of inundation events on agriculture activities.
Soil CO2 emission in the boreal zone of Central Siberia: raised bog and lichen pine forest ecosystems
Authors: Makhnykina Anastasia , Polosukhina Daria , Prokushkin Anatoly
Published: March 2022

The current climate changes exert influence on these ecosystems by changing water supply, temperature regime, plant growing activity and others. Nowadays studies predicted the important role of the northern bogs and peatlands as an additional source of atmospheric CO2. The research area was located in the Krasnoyarsk region, Russia (60° 48’ N, 89° 22’ E) close to the International research station – ZOTTO (http://www.zottoproject.org).  In our study we estimated how microrelief and microclimatic conditions can control the CO2 emission from the bog and forested areas. We compared also the waterlogged bog conditions and forest ecosystem to find out the main drivers of soil emission dynamics during the summer season. The rate of CO2 emission varies widely within the bog area depending on the microrelief of the area: hollow site – 0.74 ±0.03, ridge site – 1.69 ±0.08 kg CO2 m-2. Comparative analysis with the forest area showed that the upland parts of the bog area are not inferior to the forest area in terms of the CO2 emission rate. Moisture conditions determined the CO2 efflux for the hollow site (r=0.49, p<0.05) and forested area (r=0.39, p<0.05). The temperature impact is observed for all sites and it is significant throughout the season. Thus, within a single bog area micrometeorological characteristics of the underline surface during the season significantly control the CO2 emission rates.

 

The research was funded by RFBR, Krasnoyarsk Territory and Krasnoyarsk Regional Fund of Science, project number 20-44-243003.
Strain localization in a visco-elasto-plastic medium using strain-dependent weakening and healing rheology
Authors: Fuchs Lukas , Duretz Thibault , Becker Thorsten W.
Published: March 2022

The formation and maintenance of narrow, lithospheric shear zones and their importance in plate-tectonics remain one of the major problems in geodynamics. While the cause and consequence of strain localization and weakening within the lithosphere remain debated, it is clear that these processes play an essential role in lithospheric deformation across a wide range of spatio-temporal scales. Here, we analyze the efficiency of strain localization in a 2-D visco-elasto-plastic medium for a strain-dependent weakening and healing (SDWH) rheology using 2-D numerical, thermo-mechanical experiments with kinematic boundary conditions. Such a parameterized rheology successfully mimics more complex transient weakening and healing processes, akin to a grain-size sensitive composite (diffusion and dislocation creep) rheology. In addition, the SDWH rheology allows for memory of deformation. This enables self-consistent formation and reactivation of inherited weak zones within the lithosphere and sustains those weak zones over an extended period of time. We further analyze the resulting shear zone patterns and seek to answer the questions: What is the typical, effective intensity of strain localization? What are the dimensions of the resulting shear zones? Are such shear zones mesh-dependent in numerical models and, if so, can we exploit existing regularization approaches for the SDWH rheology?
Semi-diurnal vs. diurnal tides: implications for coastal wetland adaptability to sea level rise
Authors: Belliard Jean-Philippe , Gourgue Olivier , Govers Gerard , Kirwan Matthew , Temmerman Stijn
Published: March 2022

Relative sea level rise (RSLR) is widely regarded as a threat to highly valued coastal wetlands such as tidal marsh and mangrove ecosystems. In certain places around the world, coastal wetlands already show signs of submergence due to RSLR, while in other places these wetlands instead show a certain ability to adapt to RSLR through sediment accretion and resulting surface elevation gain. Identifying the factors that drive the global variability in coastal wetland adaptability to RSLR is thus a major scientific and societal challenge. Regional- to global-scale empirical assessments and model projections have revealed that the rate of RSLR itself, the tidal range and sediment supply are major drivers of wetland adaptability. Yet, these assessments ignore the role of the tidal pattern, which varies around the world from semi-diurnal to diurnal. Here, we present a meta-data analysis, including 423 tidal marsh and mangrove sites around the world, to assess the relative influence of tidal patterns, on globally observed rates of wetland elevation change in comparison with local RSLR rates. We demonstrate that the tidal pattern contributes importantly to explain the variability in wetland adaptability to RSLR. Specifically, coastal wetlands occurring under predominantly diurnal tides are more subject to elevation deficits relative to RSLR, as compared to wetlands under predominantly semi-diurnal tides. Using a tidal wetland accretion model, we further illustrate that less frequent, diurnal tides trigger lower sediment accretion rates, hence higher wetland vulnerability to RSLR, across a wide range of scenarios of RSLR rates, tidal ranges, and sediment supply. Our findings highlight the tidal pattern as a previously overlooked yet important driver of coastal wetland adaptability to RSLR and offer new perspectives on the understanding and projection of coastal wetland responses to future RSLR. We also call for new research as tidal patterns may also affect other key wetland ecosystem functions and services.    
Spatial Prediction of Landslide susceptibility zones using Artificial Neural Network in the Sikkim Himalaya, India
Authors: Gupta Vikram , Kumar Sandeep , Hermanns Reginald , Penna Ivanna , Dehls John , Sengupta Aniruddha , Bhasin Rajinder K.
Published: March 2022

Landslide is one of the most destructive natural hazard in Himalaya. It is mainly caused by numerous geological, geomorphological and hydrological characteristics of the terrain, and generally triggered either by rainfall or earthquake. It poses a serious threat to human lives, environment and the built infrastructures of the region. It has been reported that every year around 300 - 400 fatalities occur in the Himalayan region and monetary loss incurred is ~ 100 million USD. Therefore it is necessary to demarcate different landslide susceptible zones in the region. This will help in the sustainable development of region and minimize the destruction caused by landslides. For the present study, large scale landslide susceptibility mapping for the state of Sikkim encompassing northern and eastern districts using Artificial Neural Network has been carried out.

 

Landslide susceptibility, the relative probability of occurrence of landslides in an area, is one of the prerequisites for the development of the area in this mountain terrain. To assess the landslide susceptibility in a region, it is essential to understand the spatial distribution of the active landslides and landslide deposits, and their controlling factors. The relative weightage to each landslide controlling factor is determined using appropriate models and finally the landslide susceptibility map is prepared.

Geologically, the area encompasses the rocks of the Lesser Himalaya and Higher Himalaya, demarcated from one another by Main Central Thrust (MCT) and mainly constitutes phyllite, schist, quartzite, schist and gneiss. An inventory of 247 active landslides and landslide deposits ranging in area from ~ 200 m2 to ~ 450700 m2 and thematic layers of fifteen possible causative factors of landslides viz. lithology, slope angle & aspect, elevation, curvature-plan, curvature-profile, topographic wetness index, stream power index, distance to drainage, road & thrusts, land use and land cover, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and peak ground acceleration (PGA) have been prepared. Of the 247 landslides, 70% were randomly selected for the assessment of landslide susceptibility, and the remaining 30% were used for validating the model. The dependency rate of landslides on each causative factor were estimated using information gain value analysis and subsequently landslide susceptibility map was computed using artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm.

It has been noted that high and very high susceptible zones are mainly concentrated along the strike of the MCT, on south facing slopes as these are slopes experience concentrated rainfall due to the orographic barrier. The success rate of our model is 92% and prediction rate is 89%.
Submarine active tectonics in the south and northwest Iberian margins 
Authors: Ramos Adrià , Somoza Luis , Medialdea Teresa , Terrinha Pedro , Vázquez Juan-Tomás
Published: March 2022

The Iberian Peninsula is surrounded to the north by the convergence margin between Eurasia and the former Iberian plates (North and Northwest Iberian margin), and to the south by a transform plate boundary between Eurasia and Nubia (Gulf of Cádiz) to a shear-compressive indentation of Nubia northwards in the Alborán Sea. These margins are affected by historic and present-day seismicity, which are linked to active tectonic structures deforming the seafloor of the margins. The main objective is to better understand their development in the framework of the present plate organization and thus evaluate the seismic hazard around Iberia. Therefore, we carried out an extensive geophysical characterization of submarine faults, focusing on those that show seabed morphological expressions, by mapping them with high-resolution swath bathymetry data, high-resolution parametric sub-bottom profiles and multichannel 2D seismic profiles. Their activity and distribution are in good agreement with the geodetic and seismological observations.

Our results show that the present-day active tectonics and its related deformation, including seismicity and tsunami-affected coastal areas, are mainly located in the south Iberian margin, around the boundary between the Eurasian and Nubia tectonic plates. The submarine active faults are represented in this margin by a large strike-slip fault system and fold-thrust systems, in response to the NW-SE convergence between the aforementioned tectonic plates. The different orientation and distribution of submarine faults, and the fault type from focal mechanism of seismic events, led us to identify simple and pure shear zones from the Alborán Sea to the east, to the Gibraltar Arc and Gulf of Cadiz to the west. This suggests a strain partitioning model along the plate boundary in response to the present-day shear stress orientation.

Deformation is also documented in the NW Iberian margin. Thrust fault systems with high seismic activity were identified and mapped along Iberian ocean-continent transition around the Galician and Portuguese margins, reflecting the re-activation of former Cenozoic faults. Deformation in this margin is also derived from the westward motion of the Iberian oceanic domain and the clockwise rotation of the Iberian continental domain with respect to the Eurasian plate.
Compound events in Germany: drivers and case studies
Authors: Ellsäßer Florian , Xoplaki Elena ,   The climXtreme research network on climate change and extreme events
Published: March 2022

The 2018 compound of hot and dry conditions in Central Europe are unprecedented in magnitude, duration and spatial extent since measurements started in 1881. During spring and summer, these compounding of extreme conditions caused a series of severe impacts on several sectors including agriculture, forestry, transport, energy and water supply. At the beginning of the same year, windstorm Friederike concurrent with heavy snowfall caused severe damages in Ireland, Great Britain, northern France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Czech Republic and Poland. Friederike reached wind gusts of the order of 100 – 150 km/h, up to 173 km/h at Sněžka in Czech Republic and 203 km/h at Brocken in Germany.

Along the trajectory from large to the local scale, the drivers and dynamics of these events are analyzed and the impacts of the compound events are provided. Exemplary for 2018, the impacts of the compound events comprise traffic disruption, power outages, property damage by e.g., falling trees, and fatalities after the windstorm. Unprecedented winter wheat yield reductions were observed as well after the hot and dry spring and summer growing season. The impact of the drought and heat wave compound further facilitated the outbreak of bark beetle in 2018 and the following years, as a cumulative hazard and increased the probability of a dry surface water anomaly to an unexpected 68 %.

Taking advantage of the transdisciplinary research and gathered expertise in the frame of the coordinated German ClimXtreme project network (www.climxtreme.net), we analyze and characterize these 2018 events that link with severe impacts in Germany and neighboring countries in Central Europe. We focus on two key storylines with respect to the selected case studies of compound wind & rain and drought & heat. We provide a detailed overview of the data, methods and approaches used, the scales and aspects involved as well as the events’ drivers/dynamics and their multi-sectorial impacts. We finally demonstrate the importance of considering the various facets of the compound nature of extremes and respond to timely research questions that the ClimXtreme research network addresses, such as: attribution of changing compound events to climate change, understanding the variability of clustered storms, understanding the role of decadal variations on compound heat metrics, understanding and predicting the effects of climate change on landslides, analysis of past and future changes in the frequencies of compound events.
Rockwall erosion in high mountain areas: Estimation from in situ-produced 10Be concentrations measured on supraglacial clasts (Mont Blanc massif, France)
Authors: Courtial-Manent Lea , Sarr Anta-Clarisse , Schwing Arthur , Gasnier Toinette , Mugnier Jean-Louis , Carcaillet Julien , Ravanel Ludovic , Buoncristiani Jean-François
Published: March 2022

Rockwall erosion due to rockfalls is one of the most efficient erosion processes in the highest parts of mountain ranges. It is therefore important to quantify this erosion to understand the long-term evolution of mountainous topography. In this study, we analyze how the 10Be concentration of supraglacial debris can be used to quantify the rockwall erosion in a glacierized catchment. We first analyse the cascade of processes that move a block from a rockwall to a supraglacial location and propose a quantitative estimate of the number of rockfalls statistically mixed in a supraglacial sand sample. This model incorporates the extent of the rockwall, a power law distribution of the volume of the rockfalls and the mean glacial transport velocity.

In the case of 10 glaciers of the Mont Blanc massif, the 10Be concentrations obtained from 45 supraglacial samples vary from 92 ±3 to 1.69 ± 0.3 × 104 atoms g-1.

Our analysis suggests that part of the 10Be concentration dispersion is related to an insufficient number of amalgamated rockfalls that does not erase the stochastic nature of the rockwall erosion. In the latter case, the concentration of several collected samples is averaged to increase the number of statistically amalgamated rockfalls.

Variable and robust 10Be-derived rockwall retreat rates are obtained for 25 distinct rockfall zones in the Mont Blanc massif and vary from 0.07 ±0.01 to 4.33 ±1.2 mm.a-1. These retreat rates depend mainly on the slope angle, orientation and thermal regime (presence/absence of permafrost in particular).
Effects of aerosols reduction on the Asian summer monsoon prediction: the case of summer 2020
Authors: Cherchi Annalisa , Alessandri Andrea , Tourigny Etienne , Acosta Navarro Juan C , Ortega Pablo , Davini Paolo , Volpi Danila , Catalano Franco , van Noije Twan
Published: March 2022

Northern Hemisphere anthropogenic aerosols influence Southeast and East Asian summer monsoon precipitation. In the late 20th century, both the East Asian and the South Asian summer monsoons weakened because of increased emissions of anthropogenic aerosols over Asia, counteracting the warming effect of increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). Changes in the anthropogenic aerosols burden in the Northern Hemisphere, and specifically over the Asian continent, may also have affected the sub-seasonal evolution of the summer monsoon. During the spring 2020, when restrictions to contain the spread of the coronavirus were implemented worldwide, reduced emissions of gases and aerosols were detected also over Asia.

Following on from the above and using the EC-Earth3 coupled model, a case-study forecast for summer 2020 (May 1st start date) has been designed and produced with and without the reduced atmospheric forcing due to covid-19 in the SSP2-4.5 baseline scenario, as estimated and adopted within CMIP6 DAMIP covidMIP experiments (hereinafter “covid-19 forcing”). The forecast ensembles (sensitivity and control experiments, meaning with and without covid-19 forcing) consist of 60 members each to better account for the internal variability (noise) and to maximize the capability to identify the effects of the reduced emissions.

The analysis focuses on  the effects of the covid-19 forcing, in particular the reduction of anthropogenic aerosols, on the forecasted evolution of the monsoon, with a specific focus on the performance in predicting the summer precipitation over India and over other parts of  South and East Asia. Changes in the performance of the prediction for specific aspects of the monsoon, like the onset and the length of the season, are evaluated as well.
Impacts of climate change on human security in Bangladesh: a systematic map
Authors: Sultana Ferdous , Petzold Jan , Scheffran Jürgen
Published: March 2022

Bangladesh is considered a climate hot spot for its unique geography, high population, poor infrastructure, high inequality, corrupt governance system and heavily agriculture-reliant economy. Due to its physical location compounding extreme weather events like cyclones, floods, heat waves, extreme rainfall etc. are a yearly phenomenon and climate change is contributing to their increasing frequency and intensifying severity. The impacts of such natural hazards then start a cascading process within the interconnected sectors of the society and affect different dimensions of human security, leading to multiple system failures, where the poor are hit disproportionately. Plenty of research is done on climate change impacts in Bangladesh, but there is lack of aggregated research that combines this evidence and provides a comprehensive overview of the systemic risk. The objective of this study is to investigate the existing literature on how climate change along with interdependent dimensions of the societal system pose threat to different components of human security. The concept of human security used here is based on three pillars: freedom from fear, freedom from want and freedom to live in dignity. A systematic map approach is adopted to ensure minimal human and publication bias as opposed to a traditional review process. Standardized key terms were used to search literature in Web of Science and broad inclusion criteria were applied for screening relevant papers. Selected papers will go through a robust coding process to create an exhaustive database and yield the complex pathways of interaction between climate-related extreme weather events and human security in Bangladesh.
ENGIE: Encouraging girls to study geociences and engineering. Lessons learnt.
Authors: Ortega Rodríguez Ariadna , Cseko Adrienn , Hartai Éva , Johansson Kristina ,   The ENGIE Team
Published: March 2022

“ENGIE - Encouraging Girls to Study Geosciences and Engineering” is an EIT Raw Materials funded project aimed to raise the interest of girls aged 13-18 for studying geosciences and related engineering disciplines. The final objective of the Project is to achieve gender equality in the future of geosciences as well as understanding the reasons for the gender imbalance and early female disinterest in geosciences and creating best practices for the future.

In EGU 2021, ENGIE presented the objectives and key messages from the project. Since then, the project has organized actions in 25 countries counting with a total of 11.117 participants, 64% of them girls.  During the implementation of the actions the participants and partners have been part of the Impact Assessment carried out during said activities. Out of 11.117 participants only 939 answered the questionnaire to its completion. The variations in countries, demographics and, most often, the type of activity they participated is noticeable and could point out to the reasons for this low participation.

There has been a double approach into ensuring the assessment is correct and the results are pertinent by gathering feedback both from participants and organisers of the actions. For the participants, a short questionnaire in their national language created specifically for the targeted age and expertise that allows for quantitative and qualitative analysis and is in the process of being reformulated taking into account the lessons learnt this year.

As for the organisers, ENGIE’s Impact Assessment is based on ensuring coherence with the objectives and the communication the three key messages of the project:

Changing circumstances not individuals

Challenging rather than reproducing inequalities

Taking variations into account

The double analysis carried out through these questionnaires and the wide extension of the ENGIE actions can show a glimpse of the most interesting actions for girls, as well as creating a baseline for tackling gender inequality in geosciences during COVID-19 times. The reformulation of the questions and adding of new feedback measures (wordclouds, forum questions…) by applying lessons learnt and comments from the collaborating stakeholders in more than 20 countries has been considered..

In 2021, ENGIE presented the main concepts and objectives of the project as well as the actions planned. In 2022, the implementations and assessment of the project during the present running time is to be presented as well as evaluated and analysed in order to disseminate ENGIE’s recommendations to organize and assess actions targeted at improving gender equality in geosciences.
Variations in Dissolution-Precipitation Creep Along an Active Plate Boundary
Authors: McGrath Jack , Piazolo Sandra
Published: March 2022

Up to 30% of the relative plate motion between the Australian and Pacific plates along the Alpine Fault, New Zealand, has been shown to be accommodated by internal deformation of the Southern Alps mountain range. Much of this internal deformation is considered to be the result of the development of back shears, formed as a result of the uplift of Pacific Plate material along the Alpine Fault (Little et al., 2002). These shears represent discrete, spaced zones of deformation, and as such may not fully represent the bulk deformation of Pacific Plate crustal material at this plate boundary.

Here we discuss how the bulk rock of the Pacific Plate may be able to allow for the accommodation of an estimated minimum shortening of 30 – 40 % from pure or general shear through an analysis of deformation of cross-cutting quartz veins within a quartz-biotite schist at a distance to the Alpine fault. Electron Back Scatter Diffraction data shows that whereas the dominant mode of deformation in the quartz veins is accommodated by dislocation creep, the order of magnitude decrease in grain size of quartz within the host rock leads to the dominance of deformation by dissolution – precipitation creep.

The effects of the variation in the deformation mechanism can be seen in the interaction between layering within the host rock and the cross-cutting veins following continued shortening. Dissolution and transport of matrix quartz allows the apparent folding of the quartz vein around biotite layering, which is resistant to dissolution, causing an apparent cross-cutting of the vein by layer-defining biotites.

Pervasive veining of the Pacific crustal material indicates that fracturing is occurring across a wide variety of depths during exhumation, an interpretation corroborated by extensive micro-seismicity surveys. Back-projection of the exhumation paths of rocks through this region of seismicity indicates that the resultant P10 fracture densities of surface exposures are too low to be explained without requiring a volume reduction. We suggest that mass transport due to the observed dissolution – precipitation is the mechanism by which this volume reduction occurs, and place constraints on the magnitude and spatial distribution of this process using a model incorporating EBSD sample data, micro-seismicity, exhumation rates and horizontal plate motions.
Stratoids flood basalt volcanism at the Afar rift: new insights from trace elements geochemistry 
Authors: Tortelli Gianmaria , Gioncada Anna , Pagli Carolina , Braschi Eleonora , Gebru Ermias , Keir Derek
Published: March 2022

In this work we investigate the genesis of widespread continental basaltic volcanism and the transition to localised magmatic segments at the Afar Rift-Rift-Rift triple junction. Basing on major and trace elements we investigated the thick (up to 1500m) and widespread (~55.000 km2) Lower (4.5-2.6 Ma) and Upper Stratoids (2.6-1.1 Ma) Series and the subsequent, less voluminous and focalised, Gulf Series (1.1-0.6 Ma). Our results, together with published geophysical and stratigraphical evidence, allow us to interpret the evolution of the Red Sea rift and the associated break-up process in Southern and Central Afar. The three Series are characterised by E-MORB magmatism and residual amphibole (K, Rb trough and Ba, Nb-Ta peak), with subordinately pyroxenite (Rb peak, Ba trough and MREE fractionation), in their mantle source, suggesting partial melting of the diffusely metasomatized sub-continental mantle. Marked differences in garnet-compatible trace elements reveal a deeper melting column for the Upper Stratoids (TbN/YbN > 1.7) with respect to the Lower Stratoids and the Gulf Series (TbN/YbN < 1.7), indicating distinct mantle sources for the three Series. Lower values of the incompatible element ratios Th/Nb, Th/Zr and LaN/SmN of the Gulf Series with respect to the Upper Stratoids indicate a higher degree of partial melting for the Gulf Series mantle source. The spatial variation in the volume and sources of Afar magmatism between 4.5-0.6 Ma correlates well with spatial changes in the locus of strain with two distinct episodes of rifting: (1) The late Miocene rifting episode (7-2.6 Ma), associated with thinned lithosphere and the Hadar Basin formation (3.8-2.9 Ma), erupted the Lower Stratoids in South Afar; (2) The Pleistocene rift (2.6-0.01 Ma), relocated in Central Afar, erupted the Upper Stratoids first (~2.6-1.1 Ma) and, subsequently, along with the stretching of the lithosphere and focalization of the rift, the Gulf Series (~1.1 Ma). Accordingly, our data supports the interpretation that the Afar strain localisation and associated magmatism migrated north-eastward from South to Central Afar through time, potentially in response to triple junction tectonics.
Winter climatic conditions in Western Carpathian Mountains (Eastern Europe) during last millenium
Authors: Badaluta Carmen-Andreea , Persoiu Aurel
Published: March 2022

The aim of this study is to reconstruct winter climatic conditions during Medieval Warm Period (MWP) and LIA (Little Ice Age) based on the stable isotopes analyses on two parallel ice cores extracted from Scărișoara Ice Cave, Romania. Based on the analysis of δ18O data we identified two distinct periods: a warm Medieval Warm Period, (MWP, between AD 850 and 1250) and a cold the Little Ice Age (LIA, between AD 1450 and 1860), separated by a transition period (between AD 1250 and 1450). Further, deuterium excess (d-excess, d = δ2H-8*δ18O) indicates that during the MWP, air masses were predominantly originating from a dry source between AD 890 and 1000 (likely the Mediterranean Sea) and a generally wet source after ca. AD 1000 (likely, the Atlantic Ocean and/or the Western Mediterranean Sea). During the Transition Period both air temperature and moisture sources had major fluctuations. During the early LIA,  winters were generally cold and humid, while in the second half, winters were cold and dry. Ice accumulation rates, which are the result of winter accumulation and summer ablation, varied widely during the last 1000 years, with strong melting occurring during periods of increased summer rains and/or reduced winter accumulation. Comparing our data with summer climate reconstructions from the same region suggest that both the warm MWP and the cold LIA were predominantly feature of winter climate variability, summer temperatures being much stable during the last millennium.
Potential links between tropospheric and stratospheric circulation extremes during early 2020
Authors: Rupp Philip , Loeffel Sheena , Garny Hella , Chen Xiaoyang , Pinto Joaquim , Birner Thomas
Published: March 2022

February-March 2020 was marked by highly anomalous large-scale circulations in the Northern extratropical troposphere and stratosphere. The Atlantic jet reached extreme strength, linked to some of the strongest and most persistent positive values of the Arctic Oscillation index on record, which provided conditions for extreme windstorms hitting Europe. Likewise, the stratospheric polar vortex reached extreme strength that persisted for an unusually long period. Past research indicated that such circulation extremes occurring throughout the troposphere-stratosphere system are dynamically coupled, although the nature of this coupling is still not fully understood and generally difficult to quantify. 

We employ sets of numerical ensemble simulations to statistically characterize the mutual coupling of the early 2020 extremes. We find the extreme vortex strength to be linked to the reflection of upward propagating planetary waves and the occurrence of this reflection to be sensitive to the details of the vortex structure. Our results show an overall robust coupling between tropospheric and stratospheric anomalies: ensemble members with polar vortex exceeding a certain strength tend to exhibit a stronger tropospheric jet and vice versa. Moreover, members exhibiting a breakdown of the stratospheric circulation (e.g. a sudden stratospheric warming) tend to lack periods of persistently enhanced tropospheric circulation. Despite indications for vertical coupling, our simulations underline the role of internal variability within each atmospheric layer. The circulation extremes during early 2020 may be viewed as resulting from a fortuitous alignment of dynamical evolutions within the troposphere and stratosphere, aided by each layer's modification of the other layer's boundary condition.
Modeling the Impact of Paleogeography on Cretaceous Ocean Deoxygenation
Authors: Donnadieu Yannick , Papadomanolaki Nina , Laugie Marie , Sarr Anta , Ladant Jean-Baptiste
Published: March 2022

Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs) were geologically short-lived events of widespread ocean deoxygenation and marine organic carbon burial and occurred mostly during the Cretaceous period. The development of OAEs is largely attributed to the impact of massive volcanism on climate and marine biogeochemistry; however, the lack of similar events during other carbon-cycle perturbations suggests additional mechanisms. We use the IPSL-CM5A2 Earth System Model to assess the role of changing paleogeography in priming the Cretaceous Ocean for large-scale decrease in intermediate and deep oxygen concentrations. We focus on three time-slices that present differences in potential gateway (e.g. the Central American Seaway) depth and basin configuration (e.g. the North Atlantic): the Aptian age (~120 Ma), the Cenomanian-Turonian boundary (~94 Ma) and the Maastrichtian age (~70 Ma). This set of simulations illustrates the impact of paleogeography on global circulation and its consequences for intermediate and deep water oxygenation. We also show results for two different atmospheric CO2 concentrations (2x and 4x pre-industrial) to study the additional influence of differing climatic states on oxygenation and primary productivity, and their importance relative to ocean dynamics.
Climate-resilient planning of renewable energy systems in North-West Europe
Authors: Zeyringer Marianne , Bloomfield Hannah , Brayshaw David , Price James
Published: March 2022

Achieving the Paris Agreement goal requires a rapid decarbonisation of the energy system; which, can be achieved by electrified and interconnected systems with a high share of variable renewable energy sources (VREs, i.e. wind and solar). In such systems, weather and climate have a crucial influence on energy supply and demand and climate change is expected to have complex impacts through changes in weather statistics.

Energy and power system models are key tools to analyse the integration of high shares of renewables into energy systems. However, modellers usually use historic weather data  to plan future renewable based  energy systems. This might lead to designing systems that are operationally inadequate or do not meet emission reduction targets. Here we will answer the question: 

How to design 2035 renewable-based and climate-resilient energy systems for North-Western Europe? We will focus on testing the hypothesis that climate change alters spatial deployment patterns of renewable energy technologies and integration options.

To do so we will use historic (ERA5 reanalysis) and future weather data in the highRES electricity system model1 and apply it to North-Western Europe.  The dataset of future weather2 contains hourly time-series of weather and energy variables which have been climate-adjusted to include the impact of climate change from five different climate model simulations, with the climate change impacts centred on the year 2035 (i.e. the mean change seen from 2020-2050). 

 

Referencs

1. Zeyringer, M., Price, J., Fais, B., Li, P.-H. & Sharp, E. Designing low-carbon power systems for Great Britain in 2050 that are robust to the spatiotemporal and inter-annual variability of weather. Nat. Energy 3, 395–403 (2018).

2. Bloomfield, H. & Brayshaw, D. Future climate projections of surface weather variables, wind power, and solar power capacity factors across North-West Europe. (2021). Dataset. https://researchdata.reading.ac.uk/id/eprint/331