bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Voluntary Disclosure, Manipulation, and Real Effects
Authors: BEYER ANNE , GUTTMAN ILAN
Published: April 2012

We study a model in which managers’ disclosure and investment decisions are both endogenous and managers can manipulate their voluntary reports through (suboptimal) investment, financing, or operating decisions. Managers are privately informed about the value of their firm and have incentives to voluntarily disclose information and manipulate their reports in order to obtain more favorable terms when issuing equity to finance a new profitable investment opportunity. The model shows that treating managers’ disclosure and investment decisions both as endogenous and allowing managers to manipulate their voluntary reports yields qualitatively different predictions from when the disclosure and investment decisions are considered separately and managers cannot engage in manipulation. The model predicts that managers’ disclosure strategy is sometimes characterized by two distinct nondisclosure intervals (contrary to traditional threshold equilibria of voluntary disclosure models) and that managers with intermediate news sometimes forego the new profitable investment opportunity. As such, the paper highlights the importance of considering the interdependencies between firms’ disclosure and investment decisions and provides new empirical predictions.
RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS UNDER CONDITIONS OF COSTLY INFORMATION
Authors: Darby Michael R.
Published: April 2012

This paper analyzes optimal formation of rational expectations where information is costly to obtain to utilize. Under these conditions, expectations normally formed by an estimator will be intermediate between those based on all available information and those which are optimal extrapolative predictors.1 Since the costs of information are likely to vary less than the value of information, this model can explain systematic differences in expectations in markets, such as, labor, for which the value of accuracy of expectations differs between or among buyers and sellers. Similarly, expectations about the same variable may differ between markets where arbitrage is also costly.

Section I extends a model due to Theil toanalyzetheeffectsofcostlyinformation. Illustrative applications are discussed in Section II.
Heterogeneous Expectations, Restrictions on Short Sales, and Equilibrium Asset Prices
Authors: JARROW ROBERT
Published: April 2012

Under heterogeneous expectations, the mean–variance model of capital market equilibrium is employed to determine the effect restricting short sales has on equilibrium asset prices. Two equivalent markets differing only with respect to short sale restrictions are compared. It is shown that, in general, risky asset prices can either rise or fall due to short sale constraints. However, under a homogeneity of beliefs for the covariance matrix of future prices, short sale constraints will only increase risky asset prices.
Transaction Costs and the Pricing of Assets
Authors: MAYSHAR JORAM
Published: April 2012

The existence of transaction costs explains why investors do not fully diversify their portfolios. This paper examines the implications of such limited diversification on equilibrium asset prices in the framework of the capital asset pricing model. In the pricing equation obtained here an asset's risk premium depends on a weighted average of its covariance with the market and its own variance.
Efficient Funds in a Financial Market with Options: a New Irrelevance Proposition
Authors: JOHN KOSE
Published: April 2012

Under the same assumptions that Ross used to assert the existence of an efficient fund (on which a spanning set of options can be written) we prove that almost any portfolio is an efficient fund. From a constructive point of view, a randomly chosen vector of portfolio weights yields an efficient fund. When the Ross assumptions are relaxed, a limited notion of efficiency‐maximal efficiency‐is the best attainable. The maximally efficient funds are also everywhere dense in the portfolio space. Some implications are discussed and illustrative examples given.
The Meaning of Internal Rates of Return
Authors: DORFMAN ROBERT
Published: April 2012

Nearly one hundred years after Irving Fisher' persuasive argument that net present value is the fundamental criterion for appraising investment projects, businessmen and bankers continue to consider the internal rate of return. Business practice is justified in some circumstances. It has long been recognized that a firm will grow asymptotically at a rate equal to the largest real positive root of an individual project' rate of return equation if the net cash flows are continually reinvested in projects of the same type. That same root also controls the firm' asymptotic growth rate if any fixed proportion of the cash flows is reinvested. The other roots of the equation are important also, since the stability of the firm' growth path depends on them.
Market Response to the Weekly Money Supply Announcements in the 1970s
Authors: URICH THOMAS , WACHTEL PAUL
Published: April 2012

The hypothesis that the weekly announcement of the money supply affects interest rates is examined. The announcement effect is interpreted as a policy anticipation effect. That is, an unanticipated increase in the money supply leads to an increase in interest rates in anticipation of future tightening by the Federal Reserve. Estimates of this effect with proxies for the unanticipated change constructed from a survey of money supply forecasts and an ARIMA model indicate that: (a) financial markets respond very quickly to the announcement; and (b) the response was largest when policymakers emphasized the importance of the monetary aggregates.
The Monetary Approach to Exchange Rate in an Efficient Foreign Exchange Market: Tests Based on Volatility
Authors: HUANG ROGER D.
Published: April 2012

The variance bounds on exchange rate movements implied by the monetary approach to exchange rate in an efficient foreign exchange market is shown to be violated by sample data. The paper also presents evidence showing that the forecast errors implied by the monetary model can be forecasted using historical data. The results are interpreted to suggest either the incompatibility of the monetary approach with sample data, or an inefficient foreign exchange market or both.
On the Matter of Parity among Financial Obligations
Authors: LEWELLEN WILBUR G. , EMERY DOUGLAS R.
Published: April 2012

The lessons of the leasing literature concerning the impact of leases on the debt capacity of a firm are reviewed and summarized to establish an approach to the analysis of the corporate bond refunding decision. A general proposition regarding financial obligation parity is established, and from that a clear bond refunding decision rule is developed. Previous debates in the literature about appropriate discount rates and about the appropriate cash flows to be discounted for refunding decisions are clarified.
Investment Policy Implications of the Capital Asset Pricing Model
Authors: GRAUER ROBERT R.
Published: April 2012

The results of previous generalized Security Market Line (SML) tests of the Mean Variance (MV) and Linear Risk Tolerance (LRT) Capital Asset Pricing Models indicate that the models are empirically identical. A very widely accepted, but technically incorrect, explanation for the results is that with normal return distributions all expected utility maximizing riskaverse investors will pick MV portfolios. The paper shows that the generalized SML tests cannot distinguish between the MV model and a much wider variety of power utility LRT models than has previously been entertained. On the other hand, with approximately normal, or real world, return distributions the investment policies of the various models are shown to be different from each other, and from the MV policy in particular. To the extent the results of the portfolio selection calculations are robust, the results of, and implications drawn from, the tests of the macro pricing relations are not based on firm micro foundations.
An Equilibrium Model of Asset Trading with Sequential Information Arrival
Authors: JENNINGS ROBERT H. , STARKS LAURA T. , FELLINGHAM JOHN C.
Published: April 2012

In an effort to better understand the dynamic market price adjustment process, this paper develops a model which describes the impact of new information on a financial market. The primary emphasis is on the price change‐volume relationship in the presence of a margin requirement. We find that the margin requirement significantly affects the relation of price change to volume. Furthermore, this relationship is shown to be affected by the number of investors in the market, the degree of information dissemination, differences in interpretation of information and the implicit cost of the margin requirement.
A Re‐examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates
Authors: COX JOHN C. , INGERSOLL JONATHAN E. , ROSS STEPHEN A.
Published: April 2012

The term structure of interest rates is an important subject to economists, and has a long history of traditions. This paper re‐examines many of these traditional hypotheses while employing recent advances in the theory of valuation and contingent claims. We show how the Expectations Hypothesis and the Preferred Habitat Theory must be reformulated if they are to obtain in a continuous‐time, rational‐expectations equilibrium. We also modify the linear adaptive interest rate forecasting models, which are common to the macroeconomic literature, so that they will be consistent in the same framework.
Effects of the 1970 Bank Holding Company Act: Evidence from Capital Markets
Authors: AHARONY JOSEPH , SWARY ITZHAK
Published: April 2012

This study measures the effects of the 1970 amendment to the Bank Holding Company (BHC) Act on the profitability and risk of BHCs using capital market data. Differences in abnormal returns and risk among three portfolios of bank shares which differ in their regulatory status are examined in various periods preceding and following the enactment. No significant differences in performance and no change in the relative risk of any pair of portfolios were observed. Thus, the null hypothesis that the nonbank expansion provisions of the 1970 amendment had no effect on BHCs' risk and profitability cannot be rejected.
Portfolio Analysis with Factors and Scenarios
Authors: MARKOWITZ HARRY M. , PEROLD ANDRÉF.
Published: April 2012

Recently there has been a growing interest in the scenario model of covariance as an alternative to the one‐factor or many‐factor models. We show how the covariance matrix resulting from the scenario model can easily be made diagonal by adding new variables linearly related to the amounts invested; note the meanings of these new variables; note how portfolio variance divides itself into “within scenario” and “between scenario” variances; and extend the results to models in which scenarios and factors both appear where factor distributions and effects may or may not be scenario sensitive.
Optimal Regulation Under Uncertainty
Authors: MARSHALL WILLIAM J. , YAWITZ JESS B. , GREENBERG EDWARD
Published: April 2012

This paper is concerned with the problem of price regulation when demand is uncertain. Uncertainty gives rise to substantial difficulties in determining both the return a firm's owners should be provided and a set of prices capable of producing that return. We argue that conventional approaches to price regulation are incapable of attaining the economically desirable objectives of efficiency and an equitable return to investors. The deficiencies in current practices are attributable to the separation of the risk measurement‐return determination and price setting activities in the conventional approach. We present a model of the regulated firm that synthesizes contemporary financial market theory and the theory of the firm under uncertainty.1 In our approach, the income stream produced by the firm is valued ex ante in the financial market according to investors' perceptions and preferences over riskreturn characteristics. We portray the firm as producing risk and return by choosing among available production technologies to maximize its market value, given the prices set by regulators. Within this framework, it is shown that regulators can choose the lowest prices consistent with an equitable return to investors. We also show that prices so chosen induce the choice of the optimal technology by the firm.
Effects of Shifting Saving Patterns on Interest Rates and Economic Activity
Authors: FRIEDMAN BENJAMIN M.
Published: April 2012

Individuals in the United States consistently do most of their saving through financial intermediaries, but over time there have been and continue to be major shifts in people's reliance on specific kinds of intermediary institutions. This paper assesses the potential effects on interest rates, and via interest rates (and asset prices and yields more generally) on nonfinancial economic activity, of four specific shifts in saving behavior: additional pension contributions financed by individuals, additional pension contributions financed by businesses, additional purchases of life insurance by individuals, and additional deposits in thrift institutions by individuals. The paper's results indicate that such shifts, in plausible magnitudes, would have significant effects not only on interest rates and asset‐liability flows but also on both the level and the composition of nonfinancial economic activity. In particular, although the specific effects differ from one shift to another, each would disproportionately stimulate capital formation in comparison to other forms of spending.
Monetary Policy and Short‐term Interest Rates: An Efficient Markets‐Rational Expectations Approach
Authors: MISHKIN FREDERIC S.
Published: April 2012

This paper is an application of efficient markets‐rationael xpectations theory to analyze empirically the relationship of money supply growth and short‐term interest rates, a hotly debated issue in the literature. This approach has the advantage over earlier research on this subject in that it imposes a theoretical structure that allows easier interpretation of the empirical results as well as more powerful statistical tests. The empirical results uniformly do not support the proposition that increases in money growth are correlated with declines in short rates.
Information Diversity and Market Behavior
Authors: FIGLEWSKI STEPHEN
Published: April 2012

The paper addresses two major issues raised by information diversity in a speculative market. First, we analyze what property of an investor's information leads to an expected speculative profit and show that independence is more important than accuracy. Second, we consider whether the market price must become fully efficient, in the sense that every investor's information is accurately discounted, when traders use it rationally as an information source. We prove that for any information structure there is a unique equilibrium weighting of investor beliefs at which the price is fully efficient and also every trader's expected profit is zero. Except for special structures, however, this equilibrium need not be attained in finite time.
Borrower Risk under Alternative Mortgage Instruments
Authors: WEBB BRUCE G.
Published: April 2012

This paper analyzes differences in borrower risk under alternative mortgage instruments and various borrower characteristics. The traditional approach of measuring borrower risk in terms of actual delinquency and foreclosure data is rejected in favor of a model based on potential delinquency‐that is, changes in the mortgage payment to income ratio. The combinations of mortgage terms and borrower characteristics that are most likely to produce a potential delinquency are isolated based on the calculation of hypothetical payment to income ratios over an eight year period.
Direct Equity Financing: A Resolution of a Paradox
Authors: HANSEN ROBERT S. , PINKERTON JOHN M.
Published: April 2012

When raising new equity capital managers have historically rejected the direct offer method favoring instead the seemingly more expensive underwritten public issue. This paper provides a resolution for this equity financing paradox by demonstrating empirically that firms which engage in direct offers enjoy a comparative cost advantage that is more than sufficient to account for the absolute reported cost differences between the two methods of equity financing.
The Effect of Errors in Variables on Tests for a Risk Premium in Forward Exchange Rates
Authors: JACOBS RODNEY L.
Published: April 2012

Conventional tests for a risk premium in the price of forward exchange use the subsequently realized spot rate as a proxy for prior expectations. Use of this proxy creates a serious errors‐in‐variables problem which makes it difficult to reject the null hypothesis of zero risk premium. Use of a better proxy for expectations indicates the presence of a risk premium in the forward exchange rate of all countries analyzed.
Risk Assessments and Risk Premiums in the Eurodollar Market
Authors: FEDER GERSHON , ROSS KNUD
Published: April 2012

Increasing awareness of the potential risks involved in lending to heavily indebted governments focuses attention on credit pricing in the Eurodollar market. This paper utilizes a recent survey of country‐by‐country risk assessments as perceived by lenders to show that a systematic relationship exists between these assessments and interest rates in the Euromarket. The relationship is derived from an underlying model described in the paper. The estimated parameters verify a number of hypotheses, providing insights on the loss rates lenders expect to incur in case of default.
An Exploration of Competitive Signalling Equilibria with “Third Party” Information Production: The Case of Debt Insurance
Authors: THAKOR ANJAN V.
Published: April 2012

In markets in which sellers know more about product quality than buyers, but cannot convey their superior information either by directly issuing costly signals of the Spence type or by successfully funding the production of information, I suggest another way in which the informational asymmetry problem can be resolved; a third party can produce the necessary information at a cost and use it to price a service consumed by the sellers. Buyers can then observe a seller's choice of service consumption level and be well informed in equilibrium. In this framework I construct a model in which a borrower's choice of insurance coverage signals its default probability to lenders, and explore the properties of the resulting signalling equilibrium in a variety of cases.
Debt Financing, Corporate Financial Intermediaries and Firm Valuation
Authors: FRANKS J. R. , PRINGLE J. J.
Published: April 2012

In this paper we consider the role of financial intermediaries in the valuation of firms and projects. We show that security prices should reflect both used and unused debt capacity if some corporations can act as financial intermediaries and can capture the tax benefits of debt capacity unused by the operating firm. We also provide some reasons why the value of the firm might be increased if the financing and operating risks of the firm are separated and financial intermediaries issue debt rather than the unit operating the asset.
An Analysis of Bank Loan Rate Indexation
Authors: JAMES CHRISTOPHER
Published: April 2012

This paper examines the economic rationale for the use of bank loan commitments and the effect on the allocation of bank credit of indexing the loan rate offered through the commitment to the prime. A simple model of the loan market is constructed and used to examine the effect changes in loan demand and the cost of bank funds have on the allocation of bank credit under indexation. It is shown that indexing implies changes in the relative cost of borrowing for certain groups of bank customers. For nonprime customers, an increase in the cost of bank funds results in a decline in the relative cost of borrowing under commitments. The pattern of commitment use is found to be consistent with the predictions of the model.
A Theory of Capital Structure Relevance under Imperfect Information
Authors: HEINKEL ROBERT
Published: April 2012

Firms raise debt and equity capital to finance a positive net present value project in perfectly competitive capital markets; firm insiders know the function generating the random firm cash flow but potential capital suppliers do not. Taking into account the incentives of insiders to misrepresent their firm type, capital suppliers attempt to design financing mixes of debt and equity that eliminate the adverse incentives of insiders and correctly price securities. Necessary conditions for a costless separating equilibrium are developed to show that the amount of debt used by a firm is monotonically related to its unobservable true value.
Rational Expectations and Risk Premia in Forward Markets: Primary Metals at the London Metals Exchange
Authors: HSIEH DAVID A. , KULATILAKA NALIN
Published: April 2012

This paper tests whether forward prices equal the traders' expectations of the future spot prices at maturity, under two different models of expectations formation: full information rational expectations and incomplete information mechanical forecasting rule. The tests are performed, over the period January 1970 through September 1980, on the forward markets for the primary metals—copper, tin, lead, and zinc‐traded in the London Metals Exchange. We find evidence consistent with the existence of time varying risk premia.
Optimum Distribution‐Free Tests and Further Evidence of Heteroscedasticity in the Market Model
Authors: GIACCOTTO CARMELO , ALI MUKHTAR M.
Published: April 2012

In this paper several powerful distribution‐free tests for heteroscedasticity are introduced and are used to test the hypothesis of constant variance in the market model. These tests are noted for their flexibility in specifying alternative hypotheses. It is found that the assumption of homoscedasticity is untenable for the majority of stocks analyzed. The implications of this finding for the efficient estimation of the parameters of the market model are also discussed.
An Analysis of the Impact of Deposit Rate Ceilings on the Market Values of Thrift Institutions
Authors: DANN LARRY Y. , JAMES CHRISTOPHER M.
Published: April 2012

This paper examines the impact of changes in deposit interest rate regulations on the common stock values of savings and loan institutions. The analysis indicates that stockholder‐owned savings and loans (S & L's) have experienced statistically significant declines in equity market values at the announcement of the removal of ceilings on certain consumer (small saver) certificate accounts and the introduction of short term variable rate money market certificates. We find the evidence to be consistent with the hypothesis that S & L's have earned economic rents from restrictions on interest rates paid to small saver accounts, and that relaxation of interest rate ceilings has reduced these rents.
The Predictive Content of Earnings Forecasts and Dividends
Authors: PENMAN STEPHEN H.
Published: April 2012

This paper compares the properties of dividend announcements and management earnings forecasts as predictors of earnings and firm value. First, the two predictors are compared on the basis of their ability to predict earnings. Then the information they convey about firm value is assessed by comparison of the performance of investment strategies based on values of the two predictors. Finally, the effects of dividend announcements on stock prices are considered.
The Effect of Government Regulations on Personal Loan Markets: A Tobit Estimation of a Microeconomic Model
Authors: BARTH JAMES R. , GOTUR PADMA , MANAGE NEELA , YEZER ANTHONY M. J.
Published: April 2012

The purpose of this paper is to analyze both theoretically and empirically the effect of selected government regulations on a high‐risk personal loan market. Unlike previous studies, which have generally relied on a loosely specified theory and then tested this theory with statewide aggregate data, our analysis is based on a more tightly specified model for individual loans which is then tested using statewide disaggregated data. The empirical results indicate that the regulatory effects are not only significant but consistent with our theoretical microeconomic model.
A New Approach to Testing Asset Pricing Models: The Bilinear Paradigm
Authors: BROWN STEPHEN J. , WEINSTEIN MARK I.
Published: April 2012

We propose a new approach to estimating and testing asset pricing models in the context of a bilinear paradigm introduced by Kruskal [18]. This approach is both simple and at the same time quite general. As an illustration we apply it to the special case of the arbitrage pricing model where the number of factors is pre‐specified. The data appear to be generally in conflict with a five or seven factor representation of the model used by Roll and Ross [30]. When we consider the number of replications of our test and the large number of observations on which it is performed, the frequency with which we reject the three factor APM does not lead us to conclude that this model is unrepresentative of security returns. Further, the rejection of the five and seven factor versions is to be expected if the three factor version is correct. The paradigm gives insight into the appropriate specification of the model and suggests that there may be a small number of economy wide factors that affect security returns.
The Carry‐Forward Provision and Management of Bank Reserves
Authors: FRIEDMAN RICHARD M. , ROBERTS WILLIAM W.
Published: April 2012

The 1968 amendment to Regulation D of the Federal Reserve Code permits banks to carry forward one sequential reserve excess or deficiency into the next reserve accounting period. This was intended to reduce the weekly pressure on individual banks to adjust their reserve position. We find, instead, that the carry‐forward provision gives individual banks an incentive to alternate weekly between reserve excesses and reserve deficiencies. Thus, the carry‐forward provision tends to induce reserve position adjustments even in the absence of changes in the level of deposits. In addition, the carry‐forward provision reduces the impact of interest‐rate changes on the desired level of excess reserves.
Valuation, Capital Structure, and Shareholder Unanimity for Depository Financial Intermediaries
Authors: SEALEY C. W.
Published: April 2012

The theory of corporate finance is not directly applicable to financial intermediary decision‐making. The lack of applicability stems largely from the particular conditions that distinguish intermediary operations from those of the nonfinancial firm. First, when intermediaries accept deposit financing, they must produce services such as liquidity and convenience at considerable expense for real resources. Second, the introduction of intermediation is likely to be accompanied by incomplete markets so that shareholder unanimity is not in general valid. In this paper, a model with incomplete markets is developed and a shareholder approved rule for intermediary capital structure decisions is derived.
Taxes and the Fisher Effect: A Clarifying Analysis
Authors: MILES JAMES A.
Published: April 2012

Supply and demand functions for loanable funds are postulated for a no‐inflation economy and equilibrium levels of saving, investment, and the interest rate are specified. Certainty and nondepreciating assets are assumed. An exogenous inflation rate is imposed upon this same economy and new equilibrium values for these same variables are established. The analysis is performed twice. The first time, a Modigliani‐Miller [17] tax structure is assumed while the second analysis assumes a Miller‐Scholes [15] tax structure. In both cases, inflation causes the nominal rate to increase by more than the inflation rate. The analysis is repeated assuming that investments live for one period and are then written off against taxable income at historical cost. In both tax structures, the level of saving and investment is a decreasing function of the inflation rate.
A Dynamic Theory of the Banking Firm
Authors: O'HARA MAUREEN
Published: April 2012

Dynamic analysis has greatly increased our understanding of the microfoundations of the general firm. Unfortunately, however, little attention has been focussed on the dynamic nature of the banking firm. Instead, most theoretical work has derived the optimal behavior for the bank in a single period context. This approach, while yielding insight into the function of the bank as a broker between borrowers and lenders, has proven incapable of capturing many essential elements of the banking firm. The role of capital, for example, is understated if the risk of bankruptcy is not considered. Perhaps more importantly, the role of banks in transforming risks in an uncertain environment cannot be captured if the problem of handling these risks over time is not considered. This paper incorporates these dual roles of brokerage and risk transformation in a cohesive model of the banking firm.
A Capital Budgeting Analysis of Life Insurance Costs in the United States: 1950–1979
Authors: BABBEL DAVID F. , STAKING KIM B.
Published: April 2012

A capital budgeting procedure is applied in developing a real price index for life insurance over three decades. Individual life policies of three types are analyzed. The analysis reveals that although the cost of whole life insurance, measured in nominal values, has decreased over the past thirty years, when properly measured in present value or constant dollar terms, the cost has risen substantially. Term life insurance has been characterized by decreasing costs in both nominal and real terms. The amounts of the cost variations attributable to improving survival rates, changing policy terms, varying discount rates and differing tax status are identified.
Constant Absolute Risk Aversion Preferences and Constant Equilibrium Interest Rates
Authors: SUNDARESAN M.
Published: April 2012

This paper constructs a general equilibrium model with endogenous stochastic production and establishes that the equilibrium interest rate can be constant in a closed production economy when the preferences are represented by constant absolute risk aversion utility functions. The results in this paper and their limitations are compared and contrasted with related contributions in the financial economics literature.
Displaced Diffusion Option Pricing
Authors: RUBINSTEIN MARK
Published: April 2012

This paper develops a new option pricing formula that pushes the underlying source of risk back to the risk of individual assets of the firm. The formula simultaneously encompasses differential riskiness of the assets of the firm, their relative weights in determining the value of the firm, the effects of firm debt, and the effects of a dividend policy with both constant and random components. Although this setting considerably generalizes the Black‐Scholes [1] analysis, it nonetheless produces a formula via riskless arbitrage arguments that, given estimated inputs, is as easy to use as the Black‐Scholes formula.
Testing and Aggressive Investment Strategy Using Value Line Ranks: A Reply
Authors: HOLLOWAY CLARK
Published: April 2012

This paper answers the comments of readers of our earlier paper. Additional insight is gained by adding recent data to show the effect of following Value Line Investment Service recommendations in active stock market trading over the years 1974–81. We show that Value Line makes a statistically significant contribution, which cannot be explained by the Beta risk factor. We offer our results as an unexplained divergence from the Efficient Market Hypothesis, but with the tentative hypothesis that investment timing (i.e., the fact that the Efficient Market Hypothesis does not operate instantaneously) may explain much of the abnormality.
Some Empirical Tests of the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing
Authors: CHEN NAI‐FU
Published: April 2012

We estimate the parameters of Ross's Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). Using daily return data during the 1963–78 period, we compare the evidence on the APT and the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) as implemented by market indices and find that the APT performs well. The theory is further supported in that estimated expected returns depend on estimated factor loadings, and variables such as own variance and firm size do not contribute additional explanatory power to that of the factor loadings.
The Effects of Inflation and Taxes on Growth Investments and Replacement Policies
Authors: BRENNER MENACHEM , VENEZIA ITZHAK
Published: April 2012

This paper investigates the effect of inflation and taxes on the optimal duration of investments. The main conclusion is that inflation does not always increase the duration of investments. For example, in the case of equipment with a short replacement cycle, increased inflation tends to decrease the duration of the cycle. Contrary to the common theoretical analysis, these results imply that inflation may increase some forms of capital investments.
Taxation of Interest Income, Deregulation and the Banking Industry
Authors: WALSH CARL E.
Published: April 2012

Removing interest rate ceilings on bank deposits or reducing the tax rate applicable to the interest earned on such deposits are alternative means of increasing the after‐tax return to depositors. These alternatives, however, have differing impacts on the structure of a competitive banking industry. This paper develops a model which focuses on a bank's choice between paying an explicit interest rate on its deposits and paying a return in the form of services. The model allows banks to differ in their production technologies and depositors in their marginal tax rates and preferences for services. The effects of tax rate changes and a ceiling on the explicit deposit interest rate are analyzed.
A Model of the Commercial Loan Rate
Authors: SLOVIN MYRON B. , SUSHKA MARIE ELIZABETH
Published: April 2012

This paper explores the theoretical and empirical determinants of the commercial loan rate charged by commercial banks based on a model of financial intermediary behavior which assumes monopolistic competition in asset and liability markets. The model incorporates the constraint that banks must maintain at least a minimum quantity of bonds in asset portfolios. Equations are estimated on a time series basis to explain the behavior of commercial loan rates over the period 1953 to 1980. The evidence appears consistent with the hypothesis that commercial banks operate in a market characterized by imperfect competition and that they explicitly set loan rates.
Dividend Changes and Security Prices
Authors: WOOLRIDGE J. RANDALL
Published: April 2012

This paper analyzes the effect of unexpected dividend changes on the values of common stock, preferred stock, and bonds. Two potential effects are identified: a wealth transfer effect and a signalling effect. Previous studies have shown that positive (negative) dividend change announcements produce positive (negative) common stock price changes. Whereas these findings have been attributed to the signalling aspect of dividends, they are also consistent with the wealth transfer hypothesis. Based on the announcement day returns of common and preferred stock and bond holders, it is demonstrated that the primary factor influencing security returns in response to dividend changes is market signalling. A wealth transfer effect is not necessarily ruled out, but if it exists it is dominated by the signalling effect.
Bankruptcy Risk and Optimal Capital Structure
Authors: CASTANIAS RICHARD
Published: April 2012

This study finds shortcomings in empirical tests of the capital structure irrelevance hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis is that firms choose value maximizing mixes of debt and equity on account of bankruptcy costs and the tax deductibility of interest payments. Based upon the cross‐sectional implications of the tax shelter‐bankruptcy cost hypothesis, an alternative test of the irrelevance hypothesis is performed. The test examines the relationship between failure rates and leverage ratios for 36 lines of business. The results are inconsistent with the irrelevance hypothesis.
An Examination of the Empirical Relationship between the Dividend and Investment Decisions: A Note
Authors: SMIRLOCK MICHAEL , MARSHALL WILLIAM
Published: April 2012

This paper empirically examines the separation principle, which asserts that investment decisions are not influenced by dividend decisions. Existing empirical evidence on this proposition is inconclusive. In this paper, we employ causality tests to examine whether investment decisions are, in fact, statistically exogenous with respect to dividend decisions. These tests are undertaken using both firm‐specific and aggregate data. The results indicate no causal relationship from dividends to investment, which provides support for the separation principle as an empirical proposition.
A Critical Reexamination of the Empirical Evidence on the Arbitrage Pricing Theory
Authors: DHRYMES PHOEBUS J. , FRIEND IRWIN , GULTEKIN N. BULENT
Published: April 2012

This paper demonstrates that the Roll and Ross (RR) and other previously published tests of the APT are subject to several basic limitations. There is a general nonequivalence of factor analyzing small groups of securities and factor analyzing a group of securities sufficiently large for the APT model to hold. It is found that as one increases the number of securities, the number of “factors” determined increases. This increase in the number of “factors” with larger groups of securities cannot readily be explained by a distinction between “priced” and “nonpriced” risk factors as it is impermissible to carry out tests on whether a given “risk factor is priced” using factor analytic procedures.
Seasonality Estimation in Thin Markets
Authors: THEOBALD MICHAEL , PRICE VERA
Published: April 2012

The greater availability of daily data in the U.S. has led to a number of studies of the seasonality of daily stock (index) returns. While the studies recognized the potential impacts of nontrading and price‐adjustment delays in general, no formal analyses of such impacts were presented; in this paper analytic results are presented for the articulation between these phenomena. The implications of the analysis are discussed and shown to be consistent with a sample of U.K. index data. A modified form of the negative weekend effect is found to be present in the U.K. data analyzed.
Conditions for Myopic Valuation and Serial Independence of the Market Excess Return in Discrete Time Models
Authors: FRANKE GUNTER
Published: April 2012

In a multiperiod pure exchange world with investors displaying HARA‐preferences, conditions for period‐by‐period application of one‐period asset pricing models are derived first. The future investment opportunity set may be uncertain, provided that in every period a specific market portfolio variable depending on preferences is known as of the preceding date. This variable need not be completely deterministic.

Second, conditions for a serially independent market excess return are derived. These conditions render serial independence very unlikely. Hence estimation methods assuming serial independence are likely to yield biased results.
Estimation of Implicit Bankruptcy Costs
Authors: KALABA ROBERT E. , LANGETIEG TERENCE C. , RASAKHOO NIMA , WEINSTEIN MARK I.
Published: April 2012

This paper presents a new methodology, quasilinear estimation, for efficiently estimating economic variables reflected in the prices of corporate securities. For example, ex ante bankruptcy costs are not directly observable, however, if these costs are sufficiently large, then current security prices are affected and bankruptcy costs can be indirectly measured. When bankruptcy costs and other relevant parameters are known, there are many numerical solution techniques that can be used to determine security prices. One technique, the method of lines, is compatible with quasilinear estimation, which has been employed extensively in the physical sciences for the estimation of coefficients in differential equation models. We demonstrate that quasilinear estimation is a potentially reliable and efficient technique for the estimation of corporate bankruptcy costs and the asset variance from security prices.
THE BEHAVIOR OF U.S. SHORT‐TERM INTEREST RATES SINCE OCTOBER 1979
Authors: CLARIDA RICHARD H. , FRIEDMAN BENJAMIN M.
Published: April 2012

Short‐term interest rates in the United States have been “too high” since October 1979 in the sense that both unconditional and conditional forecasts, based on an estimated vector autoregression model summarizing the prior experience, underpredict short‐term interest rates during this period. Although a nonstructural model cannot directly answer the question of why this has been so, comparisons of alternative conditional forecasts point to the post‐October 1979 relationship between the growth of real income and the growth of real money balances as closely connected to the level and pattern of short‐term interest rates. This finding is consistent with the authors' earlier conclusion, based on analysis of a small structural macroeconometric model, that the high average level of interest rates has been due to a combination of slow growth of (nominal) money supply and continuing price inflation, which together have kept real balances small in relation to prevailing levels of economic activity.
Consequences of Deregulation for Commercial Banking
Authors: KAUFMAN GEORGE G. , MOTE LARRY R. , ROSENBLUM HARVEY
Published: April 2012

In recent years, many of the restrictions on banking activities adopted following the banking collapse of the 1930s have been eroded by improvements in technology and high interest rates, which led to increasing direct competition from unregulated institutions. Beginning in the 1970s, the regulatory agencies, state legislatures, and the Congress have moved to liberalize these restrictions. Based on research on economies of scale and scope, the experience of the conglomerate merger movement of the 1950s and 1960s, the observed effects of changes in state laws governing branches and holding companies, foreign experience, and experience in other industries that underwent deregulation, banking deregulation is likely to lead to reductions in the number of banks and increases in their efficiency, geographic scope, and product diversification. Such an outcome is consistent with the survival of a large number and variety of financial institutions and need not endanger the safety of the banking system.
An International Study of Tax Effects on Government Bonds
Authors: LITZENBERGER ROBERT H. , ROLFO JACQUES
Published: April 2012

It is shown that coupon bonds alone are not sufficient to span time‐dated claims on ordinary income, capital gains, and non‐taxable wealth. In an incomplete bond market where the pure dated claims are not spanned by existing bonds, marginal rates of substitution between present consumption and pure dated claims on ordinary income, capital gains income, and non‐taxable wealth, respectively, can differ across bondholders. However, the relative pricing of coupon bonds in each of these countries is shown to be consistent with the tax status of the major (non‐tax‐exempt) holders of government debt.
Dealer Bid‐Ask Quotes and Transaction Prices: An Empirical Study of Some AMEX Options
Authors: HO THOMAS S. Y. , MACRIS RICHARD G.
Published: April 2012

This paper, utilizing dealer's “trading book” information, presents some empirical evidence supporting the validity of a dealer pricing model. It shows that much of the transaction prices variation may be explained by the specialist's optimal determination of his bid and ask quotes. Furthermore, it demonstrates that the dealer's bid‐ask spread is an important explanatory variable in the observed transaction return. Finally, it indicates that the dealer's inventory level may affect his quotes and thus the transaction prices and order arrivals. The paper provides insights into the relationship between transaction prices and equilibrium prices, which will permit more extensive use of transaction data in empirical investigations. It also provides a better understanding of optimal dealer pricing strategies, suggesting that the proposed empirical model may be used to evaluate a dealer's trading performance.
Mean‐Variance Versus Direct Utility Maximization
Authors: KROLL YORAM , LEVY HAIM , MARKOWITZ HARRY M.
Published: April 2012

Levy and Markowitz showed, for various utility functions and empirical returns distributions, that the expected utility maximizer could typically do very well if he acted knowing only the mean and variance of each distribution. Levy and Markowitz considered only situations in which the expected utility maximizer chose among a finite number of alternate probability distributions. The present paper examines the same questions for a case with an infinite number of alternate distributions, namely those available from the standard portfolio constraint set.
The Turn‐of‐the‐Year in Canada
Authors: BERGES ANGEL , McCONNELL JOHN J. , SCHLARBAUM GARY G.
Published: April 2012

A number of investigators have reported that January stock returns in the U.S. exceed returns for other months of the year. This paper documents a similar finding for Canadian stocks over the period 1951–1980. However, Canada did not introduce a capital gains tax until 1973 and the paper reports that January returns in Canada exceed returns for other months of the year before and after this date. Thus, these data do not support the tax‐loss‐selling‐pressure hypothesis as the entire explanation for the turn‐of‐the‐year effect in stock returns, nor, by implication, do they support the tax‐loss‐selling‐pressure hypothesis as the complete explanation for the “small firm” effect in U.S. stocks returns.
The Valuation of Multivariate Contingent Claims in Discrete Time Models
Authors: STAPLETON R. C. , SUBRAHMANYAM M. G.
Published: April 2012

There are several examples in the literature of contingent claims whose payoffs depend on the outcomes of two or more stochastic variables. Familiar cases of such claims include options on a portfolio of options, options whose exercise price is stochastic, and options to exchange one asset for another. This paper derives risk neutral valuation relationships (RNVRs) in a discrete time setting that facilitate the pricing of such complex contingent claims in two specific cases: joint lognormally distributed underlying variables and constant proportional risk aversion on the part of investors, and joint normally distributed underlying variables and constant absolute risk aversion preferences, respectively. This methodology is then applied to the valuation of several interesting complex contingent claims such as multiperiod bonds, multicurrency option bonds, and investment options.
Marketmaker Behavior in an Auction Market: An Analysis of Scalpers in Futures Markets
Authors: SILBER WILLIAM L.
Published: April 2012

This paper focuses on the role of scalpers as marketmakers in the competitive auction of futures exchanges. We use transactions data of a representative scalper to identify the source of scalper earnings. We find that scalpers provide liquidity services to incoming market orders, thereby facilitating commercial hedging. Scalper earnings are positively related to the bid‐asked spread and negatively related to the length of time a position is held.
Theory and Behavior of Multiple Unit Discriminative Auctions
Authors: COX JAMES C. , SMITH VERNON L. , WALKER JAMES M.
Published: April 2012

This paper reports the results of controlled experiments designed to test the Harris‐Raviv generalization of the Vickrey theory of bidding in multiple unit discriminative auctions. The paper also discusses further development of the theory—in a way suggested by the experimental results—to include bidders with distinct risk preferences.