bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Formulating Technology Policy and Planning Industrial R&D Activities
Authors: Oral Muhittin , Malouin Jean-Louis , Rahn Joël
Published: November 2008

This paper summarizes an actual study conducted for the State Planning Organization of Turkey with the objective of formulating a national R&D policy, the implementation of which will contribute to the realization of the national goals stated in the development plans of the country. The study consists of three complementary substudies: (i) a continuous simulation model for evaluating national technology policy, (ii) an industrial survey to determine the structure of technology employed in production units, (iii) a plan for R&D activities in the iron and steel industry. A “macro-to-micro and micro-to-macro” approach was used in conducting the study in order to base the concepts on the facts and to find the facts based on the concepts.
Research on State-Owned Enterprises—Introduction
Authors: Lewin Arie Y.
Published: November 2008

The editorial policy of the department on “Organization Analysis, Performance and Design” encompasses research on the subject of State-Owned Enterprises. The paper “Managerial Strategic Behavior in State-Owned Enterprises-Business and Political Orientations” by Dr. Zif, of Tel Aviv University follows, and in the research Note “Performance Evaluation of State-Owned Enterprises: A Process Perspective,” which follows, Professor Aharoni presents the case for conducting research on Stage-Owned Enterprises illustrating the complexity of the various problems and their importance. It is hoped that other research will follow.
Note—Performance Evaluation of State-Owned Enterprises: A Process Perspective
Authors: Aharoni Yair
Published: November 2008

State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) have become important instruments of social and economic policy in industrialized mixed economies and in developing countries. The use of SOEs as instruments of public policy and the resulting clashes between these enterprises and private firms on the one hand and government and other controllers on the other, are causing concern. Public committees in different countries as well as international organizations have been searching for positive theory for guidance in handling the multitude of problems related to these enterprises. Theoretical models have made important contributions to the formalization of certain problems and the classification of the information needed to solve them. Unfortunately, these theoretical models have had little relevance for the solution of important real problems.

Much of the research on SOEs is concerned with how these enterprises should behave, and what should be the product of their operations. Almost no research has been done on why SOEs function as they do. The paucity of knowledge about the operation of SOEs stems both from insufficient research effort, and from the concern of researchers with formal structures and products of these organizations and not with management behavior or with decision processes.

The purpose of this paper is to call for research beyond the confines of traditional economics, using the tools of management science to obtain insights into the difficult but salient problems of SOEs.
A Bayesian Approach to Test Market Selection
Authors: Rao Vithala R. , Winter Frederick W.
Published: November 2008

A model that addresses the problem of selecting test units for test marketing is described. The model is based on Bayesian procedures and utilizes data on the relationships between test unit sales and equilibrium market performance. An illustrative application incorporates the use of historical data in a Bayesian decision framework.
The Linear Fractional Portfolio Selection Problem
Authors: Faaland Bruce H. , Jacob Nancy L.
Published: November 2008

A simplified portfolio selection criterion suggested by Sharpe and Mao involves choosing at most n securities from a universe of m securities in order to maximize the portfolio's excess-return-to-beta ratio. This paper examines alternative solution procedures to achieve this objective, including a gradient procedure whose continuous Knapsack subproblems in m bounded variables are solved in O(m) time. The effect on the optimal portfolio of increasing n is discussed, as well as the relationship between the excess-return-to-beta ratio of an individual security and that of the optimal portfolio. The paper concludes with computational experience on problems with n ranging from 10 to 200 and m from 500 to 1,245.
Conditions on Risk Attitude for a Single Attribute
Authors: Harvey Charles M.
Published: November 2008

For a decision problem having consequences described by a single attribute, the task of determining a utility function can be facilitated by verifying that the decision maker's risk attitude satisfies a condition such as constant risk aversion. We investigate a general class of conditions on risk attitude, and show that a utility function for such a condition may exist only when the condition is of a special type. Next, we discuss and interpret conditions of this special type. Then, we define two conditions which imply that the decision maker's risk attitude satisfies a condition of this type and is represented by a generalized logarithmic utility function or a linear fractional utility function.
Product-Mix Models When Learning Effects are Present
Authors: Reeves Gary R. , Sweigart James R.
Published: November 2008

An important problem confronting decision makers in modern organizations is the determination of an optimal product-mix (or service-mix) in situations where learning effects are present. Learning has been observed to exist in a variety of production and service situations in which the amount of input required per unit of output decreases as total output increases. Little research has appeared, however, on the incorporation of learning effects into resource allocation models that attempt to determine good or optimal allocations of scarce resources to competing activities via mathematical programming. Enriching a traditional linear programming product-mix model to include learning effects results in a nonlinear model which may be more realistic, but is also likely to be more difficult to solve.

In this paper, nonlinear product-mix models which incorporate learning effects are formulated and a procedure is developed for their solution. A key feature of the procedure is that decision makers are presented with good feasible solutions to a more realistic model early in the overall solution process together with bounds on the value of the best possible solution. Good feasible solutions and bounds are obtained with relatively little computational expense and effort through the use of linear approximation techniques. Feasible solutions serve as base points in a branch and bound process to refine solutions and bounds. Decision makers are able to terminate the solution procedure at any point prior to completion once a satisfactory, near optimal solution is identified. Alternatively, if allowed to run to completion, the solution procedure is capable of identifying and verifying a global optimal solution.
Production and Sales Planning with Limited Shared Tooling at the Key Operation
Authors: Brown Gerald G. , Geoffrion Arthur M. , Bradley Gordon H.
Published: November 2008

The focus of this paper is multiperiod production and sales planning when there is a single dominant production operation for which tooling (dies, molds, etc.) can be shared among parts and is limited in availability. Our interest in such problems grew out of management issues confronting an injection molding manufacturer of plastic pipes and fittings for the building and chemical industries, but similar problems abound in the manufacture of many other cast, extruded, molded, pressed, or stamped products. We describe the development and successful application of a planning model and an associated computational approach for this class of problems. The problem is modeled as a mixed integer linear program. Lagrangean relaxation is applied so as to exploit the availability of highly efficient techniques for minimum cost network flow problems and for single-item dynamic lot-sizing type problems. For the practical application at hand, provably good solutions are routinely being obtained in modest computing time to problems far beyond the capabilities of available mathematical programming systems.
Minimizing Net Interest Cost in Municipal Bond Bidding
Authors: Nauss Robert M. , Keeler B. R.
Published: November 2008

The problem of minimizing net interest cost (NIC) on new issues of tax-exempt debt securities is formulated as an integer linear programming problem. The formulation (for one variant) is a p-median problem with one additional constraint.

Other variants are also closely related to the p-median problem. A dual ascent procedure for solving this problem class is presented and is incorporated in a branch and bound algorithm. Computational results are presented for a number of real world problems.
Methods of Large Project Assessment Given Uncertainty in Future Energy Pricing
Authors: Kalymon Basil A.
Published: November 2008

The continuing oil crisis has created opportunities for developing sources of oil that had only been marginally economic previously. Many such projects, however, require large-scale investments that are recoverable only over very long lifetimes of operation. The profitability of such investments depends critically on the long-run pricing of oil in world markets and the interaction of the economic conditions of consuming nations.

This paper develops a framework for analyzing the economics of such projects. Under the conventional assumption that appropriate levels of compensation for the required capital are needed before such large-scale projects are undertaken, the analysis focuses on the rate of return required to induce the large-scale capital expenditures. Both systematic and non-systematic risk exposure of such projects are identified and the critical linkage to world oil markets is defined through a simple market of world oil pricing.

The understanding of the nature of project risks is critical to the development of government policy. The risk exposure of investors must be understood both for the development of risk reduction measures and for the establishment of suitable guidelines for capital compensation. The role of governments in energy investment has escalated and the implications for investments by the private sector require explicit recognition and study.

It is shown that the traditional theory of risk pricing through the capital asset pricing model generally leads to conclusions that appear to be contradicted by observed investor behavior. Explanation and understanding of the nature of project risks incurred by the large-scale energy project must rely on more complex, disequilibrium models of risk determination.

To illustrate the methodology developed, the paper considers investment in the Canadian tar-sands projects in Western Canada. A sensitivity analysis was performed on the rate of return of this project using simulation. The project was described in terms of both a world oil market and a taxation environment. For the range of conditions investigated, the rate of return was found to range between 4 and 20%, with a mean of 14.3% and a standard deviation of 3.3%.
The Quadratic Assignment Problem: An Experimental Evaluation of Solution Strategies
Authors: Liggett Robin Segerblom
Published: November 2008

Since procedures for producing optimal solutions to a quadratic assignment problem are computationally infeasible for any but small problems, heuristic techniques for producing approximate solutions must be employed for the solution of real practical problems. This paper presents the results of experimentation that demonstrates that a solution procedure which couples a constructive initial placement technique with simple and inexpensive improvement procedures produces good solutions with very reasonable computation requirements. The results indicate that such an approach would make the solution of large-scale quadratic assignment problems feasible.
Communication—Car-Pooling and Regional Ridesharing Programs
Authors: Westerbeck Gregory J. , Evans James R.
Published: November 2008

Professors Leff (Management Science, Vol. 25, No. 8 (1979), p. 810) and Robinson (Management Science, Vol. 26, No. 4 (1980), pp. 433–434) have raised an interesting debate regarding car pool systems, algorithms, and human problems. Professor Leff sees the use of increasingly refined algorithms as the solution to forming carpools. Dr. Robinson, on the other hand, sees algorithms as the least part of a successful carpool system. In answer to Dr. Leff's query, algorithms are available to assist in ridesharing matching.
A Mixed Integer Programming Model for Regional Planning of a Hospital Inpatient Service
Authors: Ruth R. Jean
Published: November 2008

This paper describes a quantitative model to aid in planning an efficient and effective hospital inpatient service among hospitals in a region. The planning is to be done by a regional health systems planning agency, which sets or enforces standards of accessibility and acceptability to be achieved through a modification of the current system, particularly the allocation of beds to the population-at-risk. The allocation is defined in terms of matching beds to demand, where demand is classified by geographical areas and by level of care required. The allocation is to be done such that the planning goals, expressed in constraints on accessibility and acceptability of the inpatient service, are satisfied. In particular, the population within the region should have access to an adequate supply of beds, and the inpatient service should be of appropriate level and quality to meet the demand of the population.

The planning problem is formulated as a mixed integer mathematical programming model in which changes to the system are described in terms of the location, number, conformance, and level of beds. There are two types of input to the model—estimates of demand by geographic area and level, and a description of the current state of the hospital service in the region. The current state of the hospital service is described by the location, size, level, and conformance of the service at existing hospitals and the location of possible new sites. The solution to the model is the lowest cost modification to the system that satisfies the constraints, where “cost” is a measure of the resources needed to change the system. Results from applying the model to the medical-surgical service in a region with 15 hospitals are discussed.
Selective Sequential Zero-Base Budgeting Procedures Based on Total Factor Productivity Indicators
Authors: Ishikawa A. , Sudit E. F.
Published: November 2008

The authors' purpose in this paper is to develop productivity-based sequential budgeting procedures designed to expedite identification of major problem areas in bugetary performance, as well as to reduce the costs associated with comprehensive zero-base analyses. The concept of total factor productivity is reviewed and its relations to ordinary and zero-based budgeting are discussed in detail. An outline for a selective sequential analysis based on monitoring of three key indicators of (a) implicitly budgeted total factor productivity; (b) revenue growth; and (c) profitability; is suggested. It is argued that this approach is instrumental in promoting a more systematic performance analysis, which is capable of revealing hidden efficiency shortfalls and is potentially cost and time saving. Additionally, this type of productivity-based budgeting is shown (via use of an actual application) to provide all the informational inputs for a full-fledged analysis of expected budgetary distribution of productivity gains among various categories of employees, shareholders and customers.
Variable-Base Budgeting for R&D
Authors: Blanning Robert W.
Published: November 2008

An issue of theoretical and practical importance to R&D managers is the proper allocation of an organization's resources between the periodic selection and budgeting of R&D projects and the implementation of these projects. One possibility is to consider previous allocations as an established base and to restrict the attention of R&D managers to an examination of any subsequent deviations from the base. The advantage of this strategy, often called incremental budgeting, is that it focuses managerial and analytical efforts on a few current decisions. A second possibility, called zero-base budgeting, is to ignore previous allocations and to reexamine all feasible alternatives at the start of each budget cycle. This paper presents three models, a static model and two dynamic models, in which incremental and zero-base allocation procedures are viewed as extremes between which there may be a point of diminishing returns.

The models are risk/return models in which a total budget is allocated between the budgeting effort, which reduces risk, and the budgeted activities, which increase expected return. The budget for each activity during each time stage is partitioned into two components—a base and an increment. The expected return for each activity is a concave increasing function of its budget, and the risk depends quadratically on the base and in a geometrically decreasing fashion, on the bases in previous stages. The cost of evaluation is proportional to the increment, and the total cost of all activities, when added to the budgets for the activities, cannot exceed a fixed total budget. Zero-base budgeting means setting the base to zero so that the budget equals the increment plus the cost of evaluation. It is shown that a policy of zero-base budgeting during all time stages is nonoptimal, but an instance of zero-base budgeting during a single stage may be optimal.
Approximating a Point Process by a Renewal Process: The View Through a Queue, an Indirect Approach
Authors: Whitt Ward
Published: November 2008

This paper investigates simple approximations for stochastic point processes. As in several previous studies, the approximating process is a renewal process characterized by the first two moments of the renewal interval. The approximating renewal-interval distribution itself is a convenient distribution with these two moments; it is constructed from exponential building blocks, e.g., the hyperexponential distribution. Here the moments of the renewal interval are chosen to produce the same level of congestion when the renewal process serves as an arrival process in a test queueing system as is produced when the general point process is the arrival process. The procedure can be applied to predict the behavior of a new service mechanism in a queueing system with a complicated arrival process; then we use the system with the old service mechanism as the test system. But the test system can also be an artificial device to approximate any point process. This indirect approximation procedure extends the equivalent random method and related techniques widely used in teletraffic engineering.
A Nonstationary Model of Binary Choice Applied to Media Exposure
Authors: Sabavala Darius J. , Morrison Donald G.
Published: November 2008

In the field of media research, the beta binomial has performed very well for estimating the distribution of the frequency of exposures to a media vehicle. However, long-term projections have shown consistent biases. The beta binomial geometric model, an extension of the well-known beta binomial model, which incorporates non-stationarity of individuals' exposure probabilities, is able to account for these errors. In addition this beta binomial geometric framework provides insights into the sensitivity of various media statistics to non-stationarity. This model is a particular operationalization of Howard's general Dynamic Inference Model (Howard, R. A. 1965. Dynamic inference. Oper. Res. 13 (2) 712–733.). The paper focuses on applications to some television viewing and magazine readership data. The properties of the model, estimation of the parameters and statistical tests are also presented. Finally, some future research possibilities are discussed.
An Investigation of the Equal Commission Rate Policy for a Multi-Product Salesforce
Authors: Srinivasan V.
Published: November 2008

For a multi-product sales force, the policy of paying commissions as an equal percentage of realized gross margins is shown to be in general, nonoptimal from the firm's profit maximization point of view. For a homogeneous salesforce, the nonoptimality results from the fact that earlier research while taking into account the effect of commission rates on a salesperson's allocations of total time to the multiple products, has not incorporated the effect of commission rates on salesperson's total selling time (resulting from his/her trading off income vs. total time to maximize utility). The equal commission rate policy is, however, optimal for the cases of (i) salesperson with a fixed total selling time and a minimum income requirement and (ii) “fair-income” salesperson whose total selling time is merely a function of income (and not based on rate of change of income as in the utility maximization case). If the salesforce is heterogeneous (e.g., different salespersons have differing sales responses to selling time) this makes the equal commission rate policy to be, in general, nonoptimal even for the restrictive cases (i) and (ii). It is suggested that the commission rates be set higher for products with greater elasticities (relating quantities sold to selling times). The common practice of paying commissions as a percentage of total dollar sales (rather than gross margins) is shown to be optimal under certain assumptions.
An Experimental Investigation of the Use of Computer-Based Graphics in Decision Making
Authors: Lucas Henry C.
Published: November 2008

This paper presents the results of an experiment designed to investigate the impact of computer-based graphics on decision making. The experimental task consisted of selecting quarterly reorder quantities for an importer under condition of uncertain demand. Subjects in the experiment were participants in an executive program for middle and upper level managers. Each subject received information on the cumulative probability distribution of demand and had an opportunity to run up to eight trial simulations with past demand data using his or her order quantities. After completing the trial simulations, the subjects made quarterly ordering decisions for one year in which the quantities demanded were drawn from the demand distribution.

Treatments included the use of a hard copy terminal and five different types of displays on a CRT. The results of the experiment provide limited support for the use of graphics presentation in an information system. Decision or cognitive style also appears to be an important variable influencing the performance of an individual and the reaction to an information system. The implications of the findings for the design of information systems are discussed.
Project Appraisal Methodology: A Multidimensional R&D Benefit/Cost Assessment Tool
Authors: Silverman Barry G.
Published: November 2008

Project Appraisal Methodology (PAM) is a multidimensional, easy to use tool for assessing the relative merits of R&D projects. It requires users to estimate three vectors of economic and scoring values: energy benefits, consumer savings and societal factors. The Division of Fossil Fuel Utilization, Department of Energy implemented PAM in support of their annual R&D planning, programming and budget preparation activities for FY 1981. Illustrative results, sensitivity analyses, and model parametrics are presented. Project rank is shown to be most sensitive to life cycle cost, year of initial commercialization, and planning horizon. Model weights, on the other hand, have little effect. Results also seem to indicate that the common formulation of the resource allocation optimization problem is not appropriate in a highly uncertain environment such as energy forecasting. Finally, several potential improvements to the methodology in the present application are discussed.
A Two-Stage Model for the Control of Epidemic Influenza
Authors: Finkelstein Stan N. , Smart Charles N. , Gralla Andrew M. , d'Oliveira Cecilia R.
Published: November 2008

We developed a two-stage model to help predict the circumstances under which alternative public immunization strategies for influenza are likely to be best suited to national needs. The first stage is a deterministic epidemic model which, when solved numerically, describes the fraction of the population that becomes infective during a hypothetical epidemic. The second stage is a cost/benefit model that allows policy alternatives to be compared in economic net benefit terms. Our assumptions lead us to predict that immunization programs directed at the population at large are in some cases favored over those which target selected high-risk groups.
Theory and Application of an Optimizing Procedure for Lock Box Location Analysis
Authors: Nauss Robert M. , Markland Robert E.
Published: November 2008

This paper describes the theory, development, and application of an optimizing procedure for solving lock box location problems. Such problems have become increasingly important to banks, corporations, and governmental agencies in their quest for more efficient cash management. Extensive discussion of practical data collection and modeling aspects is provided. An optimizing procedure for solving the problem is discussed, and computational results are reported.
Note—Further Tests of Aspiration Level Effects in Risky Choice Behavior
Authors: Payne John W. , Laughhunn Dan J. , Crum Roy
Published: November 2008

This Note extends the work reported in Payne, Laughhunn, and Crum (Payne, J. W., D. J. Laughhunn, R. Crum. 1980. Translation of gambles and aspiration level effects in risky choice behavior. Management Sci. 26 1039–1060.) on the need to incorporate a target return, reference point, or aspiration level concept in the analysis of risky choice behavior. Two experiments are reported. The first experiment provides a more complete test of the model of reference point effects developed by Payne, Laughhunn, and Crum. A translation of outcomes procedure, which adds a constant to all outcomes, was used to vary the relationship of pairs of gambles to an assumed target or reference point. The results fully support the model. The second experiment provides evidence of the conceptual validity of the model by using explicit instructions to vary the target levels of managers, while holding gamble values constant.
Project Scheduling with Continuously-Divisible, Doubly Constrained Resources
Authors: Węglarz Jan
Published: November 2008

This paper deals with a class of project scheduling problems concerning the allocation of continuously divisible resources under conditions in which both total usage at every moment and total consumption over the period of project duration are constrained. Typical examples of such resources, called doubly constrained, are money or energy, when the constraint on power or the rate of expenditure cannot be ignored as neither, of course, can. the constraint on resource consumption. Also manpower must often be considered as a doubly constrained resource. Mathematical models of project activities in which performing speeds are continuous functions of resource amounts are considered. The objective is a schedule which minimizes project duration. Thus, the problems considered are generalizations of both the classical project scheduling problem and the time-cost trade-off problem.

The properties of optimal schedules are given for strictly concave, concave and convex activity models. On the basis of these properties, methods for finding optimal schedules are described for independent and dependent activities. We also consider the minimum resource consumption ensuring minimum project duration for a given level of resource usage, and the minimum level of resource usage ensuring minimum project duration for a given level of resource consumption. Possible generalizations of the presented results are indicated.
Note—Comments on the Optimality in “Optimal and System Myopic Policies for Multi-Echelon Production/Inventory Assembly Systems”
Authors: Szendrovits Andrew Z.
Published: November 2008

Schwarz and Schrage's model assumes that, for optimal policies in a multi-echelon production/inventory system, the lot size of a stage must not be larger than that of a predecessor stage, as lots move from the initial stage to the final stage. Examples in this Note illustrate that set-up costs and inventory holding costs may be such that optimal inventory policies exist when smaller lot sizes are produced intermittently at a stage, with an overlap, to feed the continuous production of a larger lot size at the next stage. Also, an example shows that, in contrast with another assumption in their model, optimality does not always require that the lot size at each stage be an integer multiple of the lot size at the successor stage.
Erratum to “Branching and Bounding Criteria for the Asymmetric Travelling Salesman Problem”
Authors: Carpaneto Giorgio , Toth Paolo
Published: November 2008

Erratum to Carpaneto, Giorgio, Paolo Toth. 1980. Branching and bounding criteria for the asymmetric travelling salesman problem. Management Sci. 26 (7) 736–743.
R&D Project Selection and Manpower Allocation with Integer Nonlinear Goal Programming
Authors: Taylor Bernard W. , Moore Laurence J. , Clayton Edward R.
Published: November 2008

A number of recent research efforts in the area of research and development planning have indicated the necessity that the R&D project selection process be viewed as a multi-criteria decision-making problem. As a result, linear 0-1 goal programming, because of its ability to encompass multiple objectives, has been employed on several occasions as a project selection model. However, in these goal programming models the relationships between resource utilization and project outcomes or between various resource utilizations have been expressed linearly when, in reality, they are often non-linear. For example, as the resources allocated to a project are increased the probability of project success will also increase but at a decreasing rate. In this paper, a non-linear integer goal programming model is described via a case example. The case example encompasses a pool of thirty researchers available for allocation to seven possible R&D projects. As such, the model consists of integer decision variables for both the number of researchers allocated, and, project selection. Researcher allocation and project selection are subject to several linear and nonlinear goal constraints. Nonlinear goal constraints are constructed that relate the probability of project success to the number of researchers assigned to a project and to expected monetary return, and, that relate the number of researchers allocated to project completion time. Linear goal constraints are developed for budget limitations, computer capacity utilization and various strict conditions placed on the model. The model selects projects and allocates researchers to projects such that a prioritized goal structure is most satisfactorily achieved. The model solution of the case example indicated the selection of five of the seven projects and the number of researchers assigned to each project. Of the nine prioritized goals, six were achieved while three were only partially achieved.
The Capital Asset Pricing Model: An Evaluation of its Potential as a Strategic Planning Tool
Authors: Naylor Thomas H. , Tapon Francis
Published: November 2008

In this paper we provide a summary of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and point out how it might possibly be used as a tool for strategic planning by corporations that own a portfolio of businesses. We also point out some of the assumptions underlying the CAPM which must be satisfied if it is to be used for strategic planning. Next we include a critical appraisal of the CAPM as a strategic planning tool. Finally, we state the case for linking competitive strategy models, CAPM models, and business simulation models.
A Mathematical Model for an Energy Forest
Authors: Hellman Olavi
Published: November 2008

A mathematical model for a forest consisting of a single species of trees with a steady state distribution of age is suggested. The forest is self-sustained in the sense that trees put out seeds from which new trees will grow. Therefore, there will be trees of different year classes. The rules for tree cutting are obtained to maximize the physical yield from the forest. The rule of cutting is given by function u(τ) of the age τ of the tree which tells which fraction of all trees of age τ of the forest must be felled during unit time. Function u(τ) is obtained by using a slightly generalized optimal control theory which reduces the problem to a fairly simple nonlinear programming problem. The cost of harvesting may be included in the objective functional. All biological characteristics of a forest are contained in two functions of the age of a tree. These functions would be obtained through a process of identification. The model is intended to be a part of a large forest-economy system, therefore mathematical simplicity has been a goal.
Planning the Balance of Health and Social Services in the United Kingdom
Authors: Boldy Duncan , Russell John , Royston Geoff
Published: November 2008

Within the context of the U.K. background (public expenditure is being severely curtailed, at a local level health services and social services are controlled by separate organisations and there are many groups of the population for whom a number of acceptable treatments, or methods of caring, exist), the paper describes the development of a resource allocation model and its use in a local planning situation. Although based on the techniques of mathematical programming, the model does not purport to indicate a single optimum allocation of health and social services resources, but rather to calculate the resource consequences of possible alternative courses of action. As such, its use is seen as iterative, in that health and social services decision makers can review and update their assumptions in the light of the results from successive runs of model.
An Algorithm for a Constrained Weber Problem
Authors: Hansen P. , Peeters D. , Thisse J.-F.
Published: November 2008

We present an algorithm for solving the Weber problem when the set of feasible locations is the union of a finite number of convex polygons.
On Optimal Replacement Policies
Authors: Assaf D. , Levikson B.
Published: November 2008

A system (e.g., a car) must operate for the next t time units. A certain component (e.g., a battery) must be replaced whenever it fails, as it is essential for the operation of the system. There are several types of components differing only in price and life distribution. The problem of choosing the optimal type at any time in which a replacement is needed has previously been studied when all life distributions are exponential. In this paper the results are extended to the case where life distrubutions are arbitrary. Conditions are given under which there is an optimal replacement policy with a special convenient form. Algorithms for the solution of the problem are provided. Examples and related problems are discussed.
Optimal and Near Optimal Price and Advertising Strategies for Finite and Infinite Horizons
Authors: Welam Ulf Peter
Published: November 2008

The simplest price and advertising optimization model consistent with current empirical research is formulated and analyzed. An explicit horizon function is introduced to compare and synthesize the finite and infinite horizon situations. The practically prevalent procedure of setting this period's advertising expenditure proportional to the previous period's sales is, for good reasons, declared near optimal.
Optimizing Field Repair Kits Based on Job Completion Rate
Authors: Mamer John W. , Smith Stephen A.
Published: November 2008

A formulation is presented for obtaining the optimal kit of parts and tools for on-site equipment repairs, based on the fraction of jobs which can be completed from the contents of the kit. This formulation generalizes previous approaches in that part demands need not be independent and various numbers of parts as well as multiple part types per job may be required. It is shown that the formulation is a special case of Balinski's “selection problem” and thus can be solved by maximal flow/minimal cut network algorithms.
Note—On Anomalies in Dynamic Ratio Type Scheduling Rules: A Clarifying Analysis
Authors: Kanet John J.
Published: November 2008

Previous authors have shown that dynamic ratio scheduling rules do not always behave as intended. A recent proposal by Adam and Surkis (Adam, N. R., J. Surkis. 1980. Priority update intervals and anomalies in dynamic ratio type job shop scheduling rules. Management Sci. 26 (12, December) 1227–1237.) to correct such anomalies is shown to be in error. The reason why such anomalies occur is clarified and a rule which prevents such anomalies is presented.
An Application of Mathematical Programming to Assess Productivity in the Houston Independent School District
Authors: Bessent A. , Bessent W. , Kennington J. , Reagan B.
Published: November 2008

A school may be viewed as an enterprise in which the professional staff provide the operating conditions for converting quantifiable resources or inputs into pupil learning (outputs). The resources are determined by budgets, teacher assignments, and student assignments while learning is determined by various outputs scored according to standardized tests such as the Iowa Test of Basic Skills. Following the work of Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes (Charnes, A., W. W. Cooper, E. Rhodes. 1981. Evaluating program and managerial efficiency: an application of data envelopment analysis to program follow through. Management Sci. 27 (6) 668–697.), we use a ratio definition of efficiency that takes account of all outputs and inputs without requiring a priori specification of weights. Instead a series of mathematical programs are applied to determine “virtual multipliers” from actual data. The multipliers produce values that can be regarded as the “most favorable weights” for each school being evaluated. If the resulting optimum virtual multipliers for a given school yield an efficiency ratio of one, then that school is said to be efficient. If the ratio is less than one then that school is said to be inefficient relative to the other schools in the analysis. The ratio is also accorded operational significance—it is not merely an index number—so that the resulting values and the associated virtual multipliers make it possible to locate where improvements may be made along with their relative magnitudes.

This analysis was applied to 167 elementary schools in the Houston Independent School District. Of these schools, 78 were found to be inefficiently utilizing their resources as compared to the 89 efficient schools. Based on this pilot study, an Educational Productivity Council has been formed at the University of Texas at Austin to provide an annual analysis for all of its member schools. At present 285 Texas schools in 22 districts are scheduled for participation in the annual analysis as described in this investigation.
Multiperiod Resource Allocation with Variable Technology
Authors: Reeves Gary R. , Sweigart James R.
Published: November 2008

Planning the allocation of scarce resources to competing activities over multiple time periods is one of the most important problems facing decision makers in modern organizations. Much of the previous research in this area has concentrated on the use of linear programming procedures and has assumed that the technology through which scarce resource inputs are transformed into competing activity outputs is fixed. A more realistic assumption in many situations is that certain technology coefficients are likely to vary over the planning horizon as a function of activity levels in previous periods.

In this paper, a multiperiod resource allocation model with variable technology is formulated. Enriching a more traditional fixed technology model to include variable technology results in a nonlinear model which is more realistic, but is also more difficult to solve. A heuristic procedure that is both straightforward and intuitively appealing is developed for obtaining good feasible solutions to the variable technology model. The solution procedure requires little additional computational effort beyond solving the associated, less realistic fixed technology model.
A Mathematical Programming Approach to Schedule Master Slab Casters in the Steel Industry
Authors: Vonderembse Mark A. , Haessler Robert W.
Published: November 2008

This paper examines an important scheduling problem resulting from a new process for continuously casting steel. A master slab caster produces slabs which are wider than customer needs, and therefore, these must be ripped longitudinally at least once before they can be processed to a customer-specified width. The purpose of this research is to develop an effective and efficient algorithm for combining customer sizes in order to economically schedule the ripping process. Such a solution procedure could be used to assist decision-makers in selecting master slab widths for production and in designing width limitations for future casters. The method entails more than the minimization of trim loss because other costs are relevant. Mathematical programming is used to arrive at an optimal or near-optimal solution to this production management problem. The results indicate that the procedure described in this paper reduces to total costs dramatically.
Rejoinder to Professors Kadane and Larkey
Authors: Harsanyi John C.
Published: November 2008

John C. Harsanyi's rejoinder to comments and replies to Kadane, J. B., P. D. Larkey. 1982. Subjective probability and the theory of games. Management Sci. 28 (2) 113–120 and Kadane, J. B., P. D. Larkey. 1982. Reply to Professor Harsanyi. Management Sci. 28 (2) 124.
Multi-Project Scheduling: Categorization of Heuristic Rules Performance
Authors: Kurtulus I. , Davis E. W.
Published: November 2008

Application of heuristic solution procedures to the practical problem of project scheduling has previously been studied by numerous researchers. However, there is little consensus about their findings, and the practicing manager is currently at a loss as to which scheduling rule to use. Furthermore, since no categorization process was developed, it is assumed that once a rule is selected it must be used throughout the whole project. This research breaks away from this tradition by providing a categorization process based on two powerful project summary measures. The first measure identifies the location of the peak of total resource requirements and the second measure identifies the rate of utilization of each resource type. The performance of the rules are classified according to values of these two measures, and it is shown that a rule introduced by this research performs significantly better on most categories of projects.
A Renewal Theoretic Approach to Bias Reduction in Regenerative Simulations
Authors: Meketon Marc S. , Heidelberger Philip
Published: November 2008

The special structure of regenerative processes is exploited to derive a new point estimate with very low bias for steady state quantities of regenerative simulations. If the simulation run length is t units of tune, the bias of the new estimate is of order 1/t2 as opposed to the bias of order 1/t associated with more standard estimates. The bias reduction is achieved by continuing the simulation until the first regeneration after time t and then forming the ratio estimate which involves the random number of regenerative cycles observed during the simulation. Empirical results for several queueing models demonstrate that the bias reduction can be substantial for small values of t.
Note—An Application of Closed-Form Error Analysis to Fiscal Impact Models
Authors: Gulley David A.
Published: November 2008

For a variety of reasons, predictive power is not always a useful criterion of model validity. One alternative is a closed-form analysis of error propogation, but often the exact functional form is too unwieldy to use. A similar analysis is performed here, using a Taylor series approximation to the impact-multiplier submodel of a fiscal impact model, developed for coal and oil shale assessment.
Decision-Making at the Top
Authors: Borsting Jack R.
Published: November 2008

The author's current decision-making environment is summarized. A short history of the Planning, Programming and Budgeting System is given and then the recent changes made by the Reagan Administration are discussed. Some remarks on analysis and decision-making at the top government levels are given.
A Markovian Decision Model for Deciding How Many Fire Companies to Dispatch
Authors: Swersey Arthur J.
Published: November 2008

In deciding how many units to dispatch to an incoming alarm of unknown seventy the fire department is faced with a dilemma: If too few units are sent initially the extra units needed will be delayed; if too many units are sent, the extra units make a needless response and are temporarily unavailable for subsequent alarms. In this paper, we present a Markovian decision model for this problem. The model leads to a simple decision rule that considers three key factors: (1) the probability that the incoming alarm is serious (the greater the probability the more units dispatched); (2) the expected alarm rate in the area surrounding the alarm (the greater the alarm rate, the fewer units dispatched); and (3) the number of units available in the area surrounding the alarm (the more units available, the more units dispatched). We compare the decision rule to policies commonly in use and find that it results in significant improvements in response time to serious fires.
Toward Valid Measures of Public Sector Productivity: Performance Measures in Urban Transit
Authors: Gleason John M. , Barnum Darold T.
Published: November 2008

In recent years, performance measurement has become the focus of attention in a variety of public sector fields. Unfortunately, too little has been done to develop valid operational definitions of performance, or to identify the weaknesses and biases inherent m certain types of performance measures. Thus, the potential exists for the inappropriate use of certain indicators in performance evaluations and decisions. One field in which there has been increasing effort to deal with performance problems is that of transit. Regardless, the nebulous nature of “performance” has been all too apparent in this industry. The terms “productivity,” “efficiency,” and “effectiveness” have been used synonymously in some instances, while in other cases “efficiency” and “effectiveness” have been considered to be different aspects of overall “productivity.” This confusion is of major significance, because the use of performance measures in operations assessment, decision making, and resource allocation is increasing. Furthermore, since it increasingly is being urged that subsidy payments be linked to the performance of a transit system, and since subsidies now constitute over half of transit revenues, the performance measurement problem is particularly important.

This paper examines weaknesses and biases inherent in commonly used measures of urban mass transit performance. It is shown that measures of efficiency, such as cost per passenger, are being incorrectly used as measures of effectiveness and that various traditional measures of efficiency, such as those which incorporate mileage, can be misleading when applied in decision making. Suggestions are made for developing valid performance indicators and for developing safeguards that will avoid present shortcomings.