bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A daily estimate of phase speed to explore the link between Arctic Amplification and Rossby waves
Authors: Riboldi Jacopo , Lott François , D'Andrea Fabio , RIvière Gwendal
Published: March 2020

Rossby wave activity is intimately related to the day-to-day weather evolution over midlatitudes and to the occurrence of extreme events. Global warming trends may also affect their characteristics: for example, it has been hypothesized that Arctic warming with respect to midlatitudes, known as Arctic Amplification, may lead to a reduction in the speed of Rossby waves, to more frequent atmospheric blocking and to extreme temperature events over midlatitudes. Testing this hypothesis requires an estimate of the evolution and of the variability of phase speed in recent decades and in climate model simulations. However, measuring the phase speed of the global Rossby wave pattern is a complex task, as the midlatitude flow consists of a superposition of waves of different nature (e.g., planetary vs synoptic) across a broad range of wavenumbers and frequencies.

We propose here a framework, based on spectral analysis, to understand the variability of Rossby wave characteristics in reanalysis and their possible future changes. A novel, daily climatology of wave spectra based on gridded upper-level wind data is employed to study the evolution of Rossby wave phase speed over the Northern Hemisphere between March 1979 and November 2018. A global estimate of phase speed is obtained by doing a weighted average of the phase speed of each wave, with the associated spectral coefficients as weights.

Several insights about the drivers of phase speed variability at different time scales and their link with extreme temperature events can be gained from this diagnostic. 1) The occurrence of low phase speeds over Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is related to a poleward displacement of blocking frequency maxima; conversely, the occurrence of high phase speed is related to blocking occurring at lower latitudes than usual. 2) Periods of low phase speed are associated with the occurrence of anomalous temperatures over Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes in winter, while this linkage is weaker during boreal summer. 3) No significant trend in phase speed has been observed during recent decades, despite the presence of Arctic Amplification. The absence of trend in phase speed is consistent with the evolution of the meridional geopotential gradient during recent decades. On the other hand, the high temporal resolution of the phase speed metric highlights the intraseasonal and interannual variability of Rossby wave propagation and points to 2009/10 as an extreme winter characterized by particularly low phase speed.
A first data-driven gully head density map of the world
Authors: Vanmaercke Matthias , Chen Yixian , De Geeter Sofie , Poesen Jean , Campforts Benjamin
Published: March 2020

Gully erosion has been recognized as a main driver of soil erosion and land degradation. While numerous studies have focussed on understanding gully erosion at local scales, we have very little insights into the patterns and controlling factors of gully erosion at a global scale. Overall, this process remains notoriously difficult to simulate and predict. A main reason for this is that the complex and threshold-dependent nature of gully formation leads to very high data requirements when aiming to simulate this process over larger areas.

Here we help bridging this gap by presenting the first data-driven analysis of gully head densities at a global scale.  We developed a grid-based scoring method that allows to quickly assess the range of gully head densities in a given area based on Google Earth imagery. Using this approach, we constructed a global database of mapped gully head densities for currently >7400 sites worldwide. Based on this dataset and globally available data layers on relevant environmental factors (topography, soil characteristics, land use) we explored which factors are dominant in explaining global patterns of gully head densities and propose a first global gully head density map.

Our results indicate that there are ca. 1.7 to 2 billion gully heads worldwide. This estimate might underestimate the actual numbers of gully heads since ephemeral gullies (in cropland) and gullies under forest remain difficult to map. Our database and analyses further reveal clear regional patterns in the presence of gullies. Around 27% of the terrestrial surface (excluding Antarctica and Greenland) has a density of > 1 gully head/km², while an estimated 14% has a density of > 10 gully heads/km² and 4% has even a density of > 100 gully heads/km². Major hotspots (with > 50 gully heads/km²) include the Chinese loess plateau, but also Iran, large parts of the Sahara Desert, the Andes and Madagascar. In addition, gully erosion also frequently occurs (with typical densities of 1-50 gully heads/km²) in the Mid-West USA, the African Rift, SE-Brazil, India, New-Zealand and Australia.

These regional patterns are mainly explained by topography and climate in interaction with vegetation cover. Overall, the highest gully densities occur in regions with some topography and a (semi-)arid climate. Nonetheless, it is important to point out that not all gully heads are still actively retreating. Building on earlier insights into the magnitude and controlling factors of gully head retreat rates, we explore what our current results imply for assessing actual gully erosion rates at a global scale.
CALIPSO-based morphology change and hygroscopic growth of East Asian dust
Authors: Wang Tianhe , Han Yin
Published: March 2020

Natural mineral dust and intensive anthropogenic emissions and its complex mixing processes during transport result in great impacts on regional environmental quality and climate in East Asia. However, the morphology change and hygroscopicity of East Asian dust particles owing to coating anthropogenic pollutants are still statistically poorly understood. In this study, the statistically significant morphology change and hygroscopic growth of East Asian dust particles in a real atmosphere were firstly evaluated by combining CALIOP lidar measurements and relative humidity (RH) derived from the MERRA-2 during the past ten years (2007-2016). Our statistical results indicate that the optical properties of East Asian dust aerosol have significant region inhomogeneity and trend to be smaller in particle size and regular in shape during transport away from the source area. The dust particle irregularities and extinction coefficient were significantly decreasing and increasing with increasing ambient RH, respectively.The irregularity declining rate of mineral dust tended to slow down from source region (-0.89) to transport region with intensive anthropogenic emissions (-0.14). The strong positive linear correlation between dust extinction coefficient and relative humidity demonstrate the dust aerosol’s hygroscopic growth. It is attributed as a result of possible saline component and coating anthropogenic pollutants. The stronger hygroscopic growth of dust aerosol in the lower atmosphere has also been found. These results improve our understanding on the hygroscopicity of East Asian dust aerosol. Dust particles coating with anthropogenic pollution have a great ability of acting cloud condensation nucleus (CCN) in the lower atmosphere, which will affect the cloud microphysical processes and even climate effect.
The influence of microplastic on soil hydraulic properties
Authors: Hangele Patrizia , Müller Katharina Luise , Laermanns Hannes , Bogner Christina
Published: March 2020

The need to study the occurrence and effects of microplastic (MP) in different ecosystems has become apparent by a variety of studies in the past years. Until recently, research regarding MP in the environment has mainly focused on marine systems. Within terrestrial systems, studies suggest soils to be the biggest sink for MP. Some studies now started to explore the presence of MP in soils. However, there is a substantial lack of the basic mechanistic understanding of the behaviour of MP particles within soils.

This study investigates how the presence of MP in soils affects their hydraulic properties. In order to understand these processes, experiments are set up under controlled laboratory conditions as to set unknown influencing variables to a minimum. Different substrates, from simple sands to undisturbed soils, are investigated in soil cylinders. MP particles of different sizes and forms of the most common plastic types are applied to the surface of the soil cylinders and undergo an irrigation for the MP particles to infiltrate. Soil-water retention curves and soil hydraulic conductivity are measured before and after the application of MP particles. It is hypothesised that the infiltrated MP particles clog a part of the pore space and should thus reduce soil hydraulic conductivity and change the soil-water retention curve of the sample. Knowledge about the influence of MP on soil hydraulic properties are crucial to understand transport and retention of MP in soils.
Taiwan Conditional Prediction Equation for Horizontal PGD for Crustal Sources
Authors: Sung Chih Hsuan , Abrahamson Norman , Huang Jyun Yan
Published: March 2020

A conditional ground-motion model (GMM) is developed for peak ground displacement (PGD)for Taiwan. The conditional GMM includes the observed pseudo-spectral acceleration (PSA(T)) as an input parameter in addition to magnitude and distance. The conditional PGD model can be combined with the traditional GMMs for PSA values to develop a GMM for PGD without the dependence on PSA. The main advantages of the conditional model approach are that it can be quickly developed, is easily understandable, can fully capture the magnitude, distance, and site scaling of the secondary parameters that are compatible with the design response spectral values, and also has much smaller aleatory variability than traditional GMMs. In this study, we use part of the database of Taiwan SSHAC Level 3 project (13691 strong-motion records from 158 crustal events occurred between 1992 and 2018 with 4.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 7.65) to develop a new conditional scaling model for horizontal PGD consisted from the suite period of the PSA, rupture distance and moment magnitude. Furthermore, we combine this conditional model with each of two SSHAC Level 3 models and NGA-West2 ground-motion models for PSA(T) to derived new GMMs for the median and standard deviation of PGD. The results show that the new PGD GMMs include the more complex ground-motion scaling which capture from the GMMs of PSA, such as hanging-wall effects, sediment-depth effects, soil nonlinearity effects, and regionalization effects.
English / Science in highschool « European » section class
Authors: Fradin Catherine
Published: March 2020

Pupils who are from 15 to 18 years old, can in France choose to attend an extra language lesson (optional) for 2 hours a week. The aim of this class is to improve English skills especially oral ones.

I’m a science teacher and I participate to this class with an English teacher : Mrs Dubuc. We both work together on the same theme. I am more in charge of the scientific aspect of the programme and she of the language aspect.

Last year we chose the solar system as one of our main topics :

the historical approach : race to the Moon, Kennedy’s speeches, astronauts’ biographies, press articles…

the scientific approach : description of our solar system, study of astronomical data, comparison of the surface temperatures : why is Venus so warm ?, demonstration of the greenhouse effect…

The final task we asked our students to do was to prepare the front page of a special issue of a British newspaper about the solar system. Some pupils focused on fake news : the potential discovery of a ninth planet. Others focused on the future of science and space : Race to Mars. Some of these articles will be presented on the poster as well as pupils’work on the solar system.
Evidence for repeated and global palaeoenvironmental perturbations during the Aalenian
Authors: Fantasia Alicia , Adatte Thierry , Spangenberg Jorge E. , Thibault Nicolas , Mattioli Emanuela , Bernárdez Enrique , Krencker François-Nicolas , Bodin Stéphane
Published: March 2020

Over the last decades, studies on Jurassic palaeoenvironments have been mostly focussed on the early Toarcian as this latter was marked by the Toarcian Oceanic Anoxic Event (T-OAE; ca. 183 Ma), which was one of the most extreme hyperthermal of the Phanerozoic. Hence, little is know about palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental changes during the Aalenian time interval, although it is likely marked by an abrupt cooling in the aftermath of the Toarcian warm mode. Available palaeontological and geochemical datasets suggest that the Aalenian is also characterized by faunal turnovers and potential carbon-cycle perturbations. Despite those evidence, there is still no consensus about the modality of Aalenian palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic changes as well as their potential triggering mechanisms. In addition, data from outside Europe are absent, leading to large uncertainties whether the observed changes are of gobal significance. In this study, we focus on the upper Toarcian–lower Bajocian interval of two marl/limestone alternation successions, namely Le Brusquet (Vocontian Basin, SE France) and El Peñon (Andean Basin, N Chile). Palaeoenvironmental and palaeoclimatic conditions are inferred based on high-resolution mineralogical (whole-rock and clay fraction) and geochemical (carbon isotopes, Rock-Eval pyrolysis, phosphorus, mercury) analyses. Additionaly, we provide a cyclostratigraphic framework for the Aalenian based on high-resolution magnetic susceptibility spectral analysis. The carbon isotope composition of bulk organic matter reveals evident correlatable fluctuations between sites from both hemispheres, providing the first evidence that the carbon cycle was globally and repeatedely disturbed during the Aalenian. The Toarcian–Aalenian transition is associated with a decrease in detrital and nutrient input (phosphorus), which is likely related to the shift towards the Aalenian cool mode. Interestingly, the middle–upper Aalenian transition is characterized by a sharp increase in terrigenous and nutrient influxes suggesting a more humid and warmer episode. The concomitance between strongly expressed precession cycles and palaeoenvironmental changes suggests moreover the influence of orbital parameters on the Aalenian sedimentary record.
Dispersion upscaling in highly heterogeneous aquifers: The prediction of tracer dispersion at the Macrodispersion Experiment (MADE) site
Authors: Comolli Alessandro , Hakoun Vivien , Dentz Marco
Published: March 2020

We derive an upscaled model for the prediction of the plume evolution in highly heterogeneous aquifers based a stochastic transport representation in terms of continuous time random walks. Transport is modeled through advective motion of idealized solute particles, which changes their speed at fixed distances. The series of particles speeds is modeled as a stationary Markov chain. The derived model is parameterized by the correlation length, mean and variance of the log-hydraulic conductivity, the mean hydraulic gradient and porosity. Furthermore, it can be conditioned on the conductivity and tracer data at the injection region. The model predicts the non-Fickian evolution of the longitudinal concentration profile observed during the MADE-1 experiment. The mass distribution is characterized by strong localization at the injection region and a strong forward tail. These features are explained by conductivity heterogeneity at the injection region, and the correlated motion of particles according to spatially persistent Eulerian flow speeds. 
Advanced MUlti-GNSS Array for Monitoring Severe Weather Events (AMUSE): Project overview
Authors: Wilgan Karina , Wickert Jens , Dick Galina , Zus Florian , Schmidt Torsten , Potthast Roland
Published: March 2020

Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) have revolutionized positioning, navigation, and timing, becoming a common part of our everyday life. Aside from these well-known civilian and commercial applications, GNSS is currently established as a powerful and versatile observation tool for geosciences. An outstanding application in this context is the operational monitoring of atmospheric water vapor with high spatiotemporal resolution. The water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas, which accounts for about 70% of atmospheric warming and plays a key role in the atmospheric energy exchange. The precise knowledge of its highly variable spatial and temporal distribution is a precondition for precise modeling of the atmospheric state as a base for numerical weather forecasts especially with focus to the strong precipitation and severe weather events.

The data from European GNSS networks are widely operationally used to improve regional weather forecasts in several countries. However, the impact of the currently provided data products to the forecast systems is still limited due to the exclusively focusing on GPS-only based data products; to the limited atmospheric information content, which is provided mostly in the zenith direction and to the time delay between measurement and providing the data products, which is currently about one hour.

AMUSE is a recent research project, funded by the DFG (German Research Council) and performed in close cooperation of TUB, GFZ and DWD during 2020-2022. The project foci are the major limitations of currently operationally used generation of GNSS-based water vapor data. AMUSE will pioneer the development of next generation data products. Main addressed innovations are:  1) Developments to provide multi-GNSS instead of GPS-only data, including GLONASS, Galileo and BeiDou; 2) Developments to provide high quality slant observations, containing water vapor information along the line-of-sight from the respective ground stations; 3) Developments to shorten the delay between measurements and the provision of the products to the meteorological services.

This GNSS-focused work of AMUSE will be complemented by the contribution of German Weather Service DWD to investigate in detail and to quantify the forecast improvement, which can be reached by the new generation GNSS-based meteorology data. Several dedicated forecast experiments will be conducted with focus on one of the most challenging issues, the precipitation forecast in case of severe weather events. These studies will support the future assimilation of the new generation data to the regional forecast system of DWD and potentially also to other European weather services.
Methane emission rates from water infrastructures derived from mobile surveys along the final course of the Llobregat basin
Authors: Curcoll Roger , Estruch Carme , Freixas Jordi , Morgui Josep-Anton
Published: March 2020

The final course of the Llobregat river (south-west of Barcelona, Spain) is surrounded by densely populated cities, industrial areas and agricultural lands. Multiple water infrastructures where anaerobic processes may be expected are present in the basin: three wastewater treatment plants, a drinking water treatment plant, several irrigation channels and a desalination plant. Other likely methane emission infrastructures as waste processing plants or gas refilling stations are present, together with natural methane potential sources as wetlands.

Multiple mobile measurements were performed during 2019 along the final course of the Llobregat basin to study the variability of methane emissions throughout the year. The surveys were carried out in different days at different times with a car equipped with a flight-ready CO2/CH4/H2O cavity ring-down spectrometer.

Emissions of different infrastructures and its variability throughout the year has been determined using a statistical approach from the georeferenced data. Local winds and plume modeling has been used to better pinpoint the sources and estimate the emissions. Finally methane concentrations and emissions variability have been related with meteorological factors as temperature or pressure. These factors, together with human-related management of the water infrastructures, may drive the methane emissions significantly far from inventory estimations.
Detection and Characterization of Cold Pools over Germany in the DYAMOND Simulations
Authors: Seo Jaemyeong Mango , Hohenegger Cathy
Published: March 2020

Cold pool generated by convective clouds is an evaporatively cooled dry region which spreads out near the surface. Studying the cold pool characteristics enhances our understanding about convective clouds such as shallow-to-deep transition of convective clouds, long-lived squall line, and triggering secondary convection. In this study, cold pools over Germany are detected and characterized using phase 0 results of DYAMOND (stands for DYnamics of the Atmospheric general circulation Modeled On Non-hydrostatic Domains) intercomparison project. We aim to understand how the cold pool characteristics over Germany depend on topographic height, accompanying cloud size, and model.

Nine model results of the DYAMOND collection are remapped into 0.1˚ × 0.1˚ regular grid system. Cold pool cluster is defined as a cluster with an area larger than ~64 km2 (4 grids), with the perturbation virtual (density) potential temperature below 2 K and the maximum precipitation rate greater than 1 mm h–1. Detected cold pools are re-categorized by the topographic height to decompose cold pools related to orographic precipitation and by the accompanying cloud size to decompose cold pools related to large cloud system.

During simulated period (40 days from 1 August 2016), model averaged total detected cold pool number is 5.59 h–1. Although more number of cold pool clusters are detected over low topographic area (1.34 h–1 and 4.25 h–1 over high and low area, respectively), area weighted cold pool cluster number is 3.82 times larger over high topographic area (17.55 h–1 and 4.60 h–1 over high and low area, respectively). Most of cold pool clusters are accompanied by larger clouds than themselves (78 %) and 9 % of cold pools are detected outside of cloud cover. Except for the cold pools accompanied by clouds of synoptic low pressure system, most of cold pools are detected in the daytime. Cold pool clusters over high topographic area are larger, more non-circular shaped, colder, and with lower wind speed than those over low topographic area. Cold pool clusters accompanied by small clouds are colder, drier, with higher wind speed, and with stronger precipitation than those accompanied by large clouds. In this study, relationship between cold pool characteristic parameters in each category is also investigated. To understand how cold pool feature varies from model to model, the cold pool characteristic parameters in each DYAMOND model result are compared and analyzed.
Neogene Exhumation History along TRANSALP: Insights from Low Temperature Thermochronology and Thermo-Kinematic Models
Authors: Eizenhöfer Paul R. , Glotzbach Christoph , Büttner Lukas , Kley Jonas , Ehlers Todd A.
Published: March 2020

Many convergent orogens such as the eastern European Alps display an asymmetric doubly-vergent wedge geometry. Loci of deepest exhumation are located above the overriding retro-wedge, whereas increased fault activity occurs in the pro-wedge on the subducting plate. The main drainage divide separates steeper from more gently sloping topography on the two wedges of different critical taper. We performed apatite and zircon (U-Th)/He analyses densely spaced along the TRANSALP geophysical transect in combination with thermo-kinematic models based on cross-section balancing. Our new low temperature thermochronology data and thermo-kinematic model results underline (i) deepest levels of exhumation across the Tauern Window until the Pliocene and (ii) higher Late Neogene exhumation rates south of the Periadriatic Fault relative to the north, while seismic activity is focussed across the Southern Alps. Our proposed mantle-to-surface link positions the retro-wedge north of the Periadriatic Fault subsequent to subduction polarity reversal during continental collision. Present-day drainage divide migration trends and imaged locations of mantle-lithospheric slabs beneath TRANSALP suggest ongoing, slow slab reversal since Adriatic indentation in the Eastern Alps. 
New insights on temporal and spatial evolution of Yellowstone earthquake swarms: a multidisciplinary geological-seismological approach
Authors: Carbone Luca , Russo Elena , de Nardis Rita , Lavecchia Giuseppina , Tibaldi Alessandro , Bonali Fabio
Published: March 2020

The Yellowstone volcanic field, in western United States, is well known for intense seismic activity, abundant geothermal features and a violent volcanic history that includes a caldera-forming eruption 640 ka ago. Even though the recentmost eruption dates back to 70 ka ago, a very high seismicity, quasi-continuous surficial deformation through uplift and subsidence stages (at rates of up to 70 mm/yr) and intense hydrothermal activity are clear evidences of a still very active volcanic field. Thanks to a recently improved seismic network, here we analyze the rate of occurrence of 19’538 relocated earthquakes belonging to the temporal window between 1988 and 2016. Starting from this dataset, we identify and characterize the seismic swarm activity occurring in the study area after 2007. We also evaluate the analogies and differences of their seismic behavior through the analysis of frequency-magnitude distribution of seismic events. We investigate the identified seismic swarms clustered in space and time, their relation with active volcanic and tectonic processes and stress field variations caused by the migration of magmatic and hydrothermal fluids. Calculated b-values associated with the recentmost seismic swarms have been related to past swarms that occurred in the area, thus revealing the temporal and spatial evolution of such phenomena. Our study gives new crucial insights to understand the relation between seismic and magmatic activity in the Yellowstone volcanic plateau, with important implications for a better comprehension of the local seismic and volcanic hazards.
Detecting Tropical Cyclones using Deep Learning Techniques
Authors: Galea Daniel , Lawrence Bryan , Kunkel Julian
Published: March 2020

Finding and identifying important phenomena in large volumes of simulation data consumes time and resources. Deep Learning offers a route to improve speeds and costs. In this work we demonstrate the application of Deep Learning in identifying data which contains various classes of tropical cyclone. Our initial application is in re-analysis data, but the eventual goal is to use this system during numerical simulation to identify data of interest before writing it out.

A Deep Learning model has been developed to help identify data containing varying intensities of tropical cyclones. The model uses some convolutional layers to build up a pattern to look for, and a fully-connected classifier to predict whether a tropical cyclone is present in the input. Other techniques such as batch normalization and dropout were tested. The model was trained on a subset of the ERA-Interim dataset from the 1st of January 1979 until the 31st of July 2017, with the relevant labels obtained from the IBTrACS dataset. The model obtained an accuracy of 99.08% on a test set, which was a 20% subset of the original dataset. 

An advantage of this model is that it does not rely on thresholds set a priori, such as a minimum of sea level pressure, a maximum of vorticity or a measure of the depth and strength of deep convection, making it more objective than previous detection methods. Also, given that current methods follow non-trivial algorithms, the Deep Learning model is expected to have the advantage of being able to get the required prediction much quicker, making it viable to be implemented into an existing numerical simulation.

Most current methods also apply different thresholds for different basins (planetary regions). In principle, the globally trained model should avoid the necessity for such differences, however, it was found that while differing thresholds were not required, training data for specific regions was required to get similar accuracy when only individual basins were examined.

The existing version, with greater than 99% accuracy globally and around 91% when trained only on cases from the Western Pacific and Western Atlantic basins, has been trained on ERA-Interim data. The next steps with this work will involve assessing the suitability of the pre-trained model for different data, and deploying it within a running numerical simulation.
Boundary|Time|Surface: Art and geology meet in Gros Morne National Park, Newfoundland, Canada
Authors: Lancaster Sydney A. , Waldron John W. F.
Published: March 2020

Abstract. Boundary|Time|Surface was an ephemeral sculptural work created to interrogate the human practice of dividing the Earth for social, political, scientific and aesthetic reasons. The 150-metre-long work comprised a fence of 52 vertical driftwood poles, 2–3 metres tall, positioned along an international boundary stratotype at Green Point, Newfoundland, Canada, separating Ordovician from Cambrian strata. Geology has as its basis the establishment of limits and boundaries within the Earth. Pioneers of geology defined the periods of the geologic timescale with the intent of representing natural chapters in Earth history; from their colonialist perspective, it was anticipated that these would have global application. Since the mid-20th century, stratigraphers have attempted to resolve the resulting gaps and overlaps by establishing international stratotypes. Artists creating work in dialogue with the land and environment have taken a wide range of approaches, from major, permanent interventions to extremely ephemeral activities, some of which echo practices in geological fieldwork. Because it was constructed in a national park, Boundary|Time|Surface was designed to have minimal impact on the environment; the installation was constructed by hand from materials found on site in one day, on the falling tide. During the remainder of that tidal cycle, and those following, the fence was dismantled by wave and tidal action. This cycle of construction and destruction was documented in video and with time-lapse still photography. Exhibitions derived from the documentation of ephemeral works function as translations of the original experience, offering an extended opportunity for members of the public to experience aspects of the original work and its context. Two exhibitions of artwork derived from Boundary|Time|Surface have provided opportunities for several thousand members of the public to interact with a range of visual media directly, both as aesthetic objects, and as sources of information regarding the geological and socio-political history of the site. A limited-edition book published in September 2019, to accompany an exhibition of the work, has extended the reach of the project further.
Three-dimensional normal mode functions: Open access tools for
their computation in isobaric coordinates (p-3DNMF.v1)
Authors: Marques Carlos A. F. , Marta-Almeida Martinho , Castanheira José M.
Published: March 2020

Abstract. A free software package for the computation of the 3-Dimensional Normal Modes of an hydrostatic atmosphere is presented. This software performs the computations in isobaric coordinates and was developed for two user friendly languages: MATLAB and Python. The software can be used to expand the global atmospheric circulation onto the 3-D Normal Modes. This expansion allows the computation of a 3-D energetic scheme which partition the energy reservoirs and energy interactions between 3-D spatial scales, and between barotropic and baroclinic components as well as between balanced (rotational) and unbalanced (divergent) circulation fields. Moreover, by retaining only a subset of the expansion coefficients, the 3-D normal mode expansion can be used for spatial scale filtering of atmospheric motion, and filtering of balanced motion and mass unbalanced motions, and barotropic and baroclinic components. Fixing the meridional scale, the 3-D normal mode filtering can be used to isolate tropical components of the atmospheric circulation. All these features are useful both in data analysis and in assessment of general circulation atmospheric models.
Cooperation of hydrologists from the Danube River Basin
Authors: Prohaska Stevan , Brilly Mitja , Kryžanowski Andrej
Published: March 2020

Abstract. The development of the hydrology of The Danube River Basin has a long tradition from nineteen century and beyond. Cooperation in hydrology science started 1961 and up to day, 28 scientific conferences have been performed. Since 1975, cooperation between hydrologists of the Danube River Basin has been conducted within the framework of the International Hydrological Programme (IHP) of UNESCO and IHP National Committees established common Cooperation of the Danube River Countries. In addition, Cooperation produce several reports and two books. Cooperation IHP Danube propose common statements for further research and appeal for development water station network necessary for measurement of anthropogenic and climate change impacts.
Evaporation from a large lowland reservoir – (dis)agreement between evaporation models from hourly to decadal timescales
Authors: Jansen Femke A. , Teuling Adriaan J.
Published: March 2020

Abstract. Accurate monitoring and prediction of surface evaporation become more crucial for adequate water management in a changing climate. Given the distinct differences between characteristics of a land surface and a water body, evaporation from water bodies requires a different parameterization in hydrological models. Here we compare six commonly used evaporation methods that are sensitive to different drivers of evaporation, brought about by a different choice of parameterization. We characterize the (dis)agreement between the methods at various temporal scales ranging from hourly to 10-yearly periods, and we evaluate how this reflects in differences in simulated water losses through evaporation of Lake IJssel in the Netherlands. At smaller timescales the methods correlate less (r=0.72) than at larger timescales (r=0.97). The disagreement at the hourly timescale results in distinct diurnal cycles of simulated evaporation for each method. Although the methods agree more at larger timescales (i.e. yearly and 10-yearly), there are still large differences in the projected evaporation trends, showing a positive trend to a more (i.e. Penman, De Bruin–Keijman, Makkink, and Hargreaves) or lesser extent (i.e. Granger–Hedstrom and FLake). The resulting discrepancy between the methods in simulated water losses of the Lake IJssel region due to evaporation ranges from −4 mm (Granger–Hedstrom) to −94 mm (Penman) between the methods. This difference emphasizes the importance and consequence of the evaporation method selection for water managers in their decision making.
Technical Note: Evaluation of the skill in monthly-to-seasonal soil moisture forecasting based on SMAP satellite observations over the southeastern US
Authors: Mazrooei Amirhossein , Sankarasubramanian Arumugam , Lakshmi Venkat
Published: March 2020

Abstract. Providing accurate soil moisture (SM) conditions is a critical step in model initialization in weather forecasting, agricultural planning, and water resources management. This study develops monthly-to-seasonal (M2S) top layer SM forecasts by forcing 1- to 3-month-ahead precipitation forecasts with Noah3.2 Land Surface Model. The SM forecasts are developed over the southeastern US (SEUS), and the SM forecasting skill is evaluated in comparison with the remotely sensed SM observations collected by the Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP) satellite. Our results indicate potential in developing real-time SM forecasts. The retrospective 18-month (April 2015–September 2016) comparison between SM forecasts and the SMAP observations shows statistically significant correlations of 0.62, 0.57, and 0.58 over 1-, 2-, and 3-month lead times respectively.
Development of a rotating-coil scanner for superconducting accelerator magnets
Authors: Rogacki Piotr , Fiscarelli Lucio , Russenschuck Stephan , Hameyer Kay
Published: March 2020

Abstract. The High-Luminosity upgrade project for the Large Hadron Collider (HL-LHC) at CERN (Conseil Européen pour la Recherche Nucléaire) will require new superconducting magnets for the insertion regions. Among these magnets, the new triplet quadrupoles, based on Nb3Sn technology, require magnetic-field measurements of a high precision in the field angle and multipole field errors. In this paper, we present a scanning system based on a rotating-coil magnetometer and its transport system, including the design of the mechanical structure and the induction coils based on printed-circuit-board (PCB) technology. The system and its components are cross-calibrated with other field transducers, such as stretched-wire systems, and their measurement precision is established in a measurement campaign of 2 m long reference quadrupoles.
An improved method of Newmark analysis for mapping hazards of coseismic landslides
Authors: Zang Mingdong , Qi Shengwen , Zou Yu , Sheng Zhuping , Zamora Blanca S.
Published: March 2020

Abstract. Coseismic landslides can destroy buildings, dislocate
roads, sever pipelines, and cause heavy casualties. It is thus important but
challenging to accurately map the hazards posed by coseismic landslides.
Newmark's method is widely applied to assess the permanent displacement
along a potential slide surface and model the coseismic response of slopes.
This paper proposes an improved Newmark analysis for mapping the hazards of
coseismic landslides by considering the roughness and effect of the size of the
potential slide surfaces. This method is verified by data from a case study
on the 2014 Mw 6.1 (the United States Geological Survey) Ludian
earthquake in Yunnan Province, China. Permanent displacements due to the
earthquake ranged from 0 to 122 cm. The predicted displacements were
compared with a comprehensive inventory of landslides triggered by the
Ludian earthquake to map the spatial variation in the hazards of coseismic
landslides using the certainty factor model. The confidence levels of
coseismic landslides indicated by the certainty factors ranged from −1 to
0.95. A hazard map of the coseismic landslide was generated based on the
spatial distribution of values of the certainty factor. A regression curve
relating the predicted displacement and the certainty factor was drawn, and
can be applied to predict the hazards of coseismic landslides for any
seismic scenario of interest. The area under the curve was used to compare
the improved and the conventional Newmark analyses, and revealed the
improved performance of the former. This mapping procedure can be used to
predict the hazards posed by coseismic landslides, and provide guidelines
for decisions regarding the development of infrastructure and
post-earthquake reconstruction.
Sensitivity of modeled snow stability data to meteorological input uncertainty
Authors: Richter Bettina , van Herwijnen Alec , Rotach Mathias W. , Schweizer Jürg
Published: March 2020

Abstract. To perform spatial snow cover simulations for numerical avalanche forecasting, interpolation and downscaling of meteorological data are required, which introduce uncertainties. The repercussions of these uncertainties on modeled snow stability remain mostly unknown. We therefore assessed the contribution of meteorological input uncertainty on modeled snow stability by performing a global sensitivity analysis. We used the numerical snow cover model SNOWPACK to simulate two snow instability metrics, i.e. the skier stability index and the critical crack length, for a field site equipped with an automatic weather station providing the necessary input for the model. Uncertainty ranges for meteorological forcing covered typical differences observed within a distance of 2 km and an elevation change of 200 m. Three different scenarios were investigated to better assess the influence of meteorological forcing on snow stability during a) the weak layer formation period, b) the slab formation period, and c) the weak layer and slab formation period. For each scenario, 14 000 simulations were performed, by introducing quasi-random uncertainties to the meteorological input. Results showed that a weak layer formed in 99.7 % of the simulations, indicating that the weak layer formation was very robust due to the prolonged dry period. For scenario a), modeled grain size of the weak layer was mainly sensitive to precipitation, while the shear strength of the weak layer was sensitive to most input variables, especially air temperature. Once the weak layer existed (case b), precipitation was the most prominent driver for snow stability. The sensitivity analysis highlighted that for all scenarios, the two stability metrics were mostly sensitive precipitation. Precipitation determined the load of the slab, which in turn influenced weak layer properties. For case b) and c), the two stability metrics showed contradicting behaviors. With increasing precipitation, i.e. deep snowpacks, the skier stability index decreased (less stable). In contrast, the critical crack length increased with increasing precipitation. With regard to spatial simulations of snow stability, the high sensitivity on precipitation suggests that accurate precipitation patterns are necessary to obtain realistic snow stability patterns. With regard to spatial simulations of snow stability, the high sensitivity on precipitation suggests that accurate precipitation patterns are necessary to obtain realistic snow stability patterns.
Quantifying processes contributing to coastal hazards to inform coastal climate resilience assessments, demonstrated for the Caribbean Sea
Authors: Jevrejeva Svetlana , Bricheno Lucy , Brown Jennifer , Byrne David , De Dominicis Michela , Matthews Andy , Rynders Stefanie , Palanisamy Hindumathi , Wolf Judith
Published: March 2020

Abstract. Scientific evidence is critical to underpin the decisions associated with shoreline management, to build climate resilient communities and infrastructure. We explore the role of waves, storm surges and sea level rise for the Caribbean region with a focus on coastal impacts in the eastern Caribbean islands. We simulate past extreme events and a worst-case scenario, modelling the storm surges and waves, suggesting a storm surge might reach 1.5 m, depending on the underwater topography. Coastal wave heights up to 12 m offshore and up to 5 m near the coast of St Vincent are simulated with a regional wave model. We deliver probabilistic sea level projections for 2100, with a low probability/high impact estimate of possible sea level rise up to 2.2 m, exceeding the 1.8 m global estimate for the same scenario. We introduce a Combined Vulnerability Index, which allows a quantitative assessment of relative risk across the region, showing that sea level rise is the most important risk factor everywhere, but wave impacts are important on windward coasts, increasing to the north, towards the main hurricane track. Our work provides quantitative evidence for policy makers, scientists, and local communities to actively prepare for and protect against climate change.
Optimizing wind farm control through wake steering using surrogate models based on high-fidelity simulations
Authors: Hulsman Paul , Andersen Søren Juhl , Göçmen Tuhfe
Published: March 2020

Abstract. This paper aims to develop fast and reliable surrogate models for yaw-based wind farm control. The surrogates, based on polynomial chaos expansion (PCE), are built using high-fidelity flow simulations coupled with aeroelastic simulations of the turbine performance and loads.
Developing a model for wind farm control is a challenging control problem due to the time-varying dynamics of the wake.
The wind farm control strategy is optimized for both the power output and the loading of the turbines.
The optimization performed using two Vestas V27 turbines in a row for a specific atmospheric condition suggests that a power gain of almost 3%±1% can be achieved at close spacing by yawing the upstream turbine more than 15∘. At larger spacing the optimization shows that
yawing is not beneficial as the optimization reverts to normal operation. Furthermore, it was also identified that a reduction in the equivalent loads was obtained at the cost of power production. The total power gains are discussed in relation to the associated model errors and the uncertainty of the surrogate models used in the optimization, as well as the implications for wind farm control.
Mental health, system barriers, and implicit bias in the treatment of refugees and newcomers: an interview with Dr. Javeed Sukhera
Authors: Dzongowski Emily , Dhar Himani
Published: March 2020

For psychiatrist Dr. Javeed Sukhera, quality mental health care for newcomer and refugee youth is extremely important. In particular, he advocates for trauma-informed care and awareness of implicit bias in medicine. Though frustrated with the currently inadequte funding of mental health treatment in Canada, Dr. Sukhera suggests that health professionals can take steps to provide care that serves the unique needs of refugee and newcomer populations. Fundamentally, he believes that this simply involves recognition of one’s own humanity and the common human experiences shared by refugees, newcomers, and healthcare providers alike.
Resettling refugee physicians into their profession of choice
Authors: Orzylowski Jacek
Published: March 2020

The incoming population of refugees is putting more strain on an already taxed medical system here in Canada. To boot, this new population is at greater risk of a wider range of illness and profound trauma rarely encountered at such a scale by Canadian general practitioners—the primary point of contact for refugees entering the Canadian health care system. Additionally, countless refugees become underemployed after settling into their new country—this includes many medical professionals. By recruiting these medically trained refugees into general practice, they can be assigned specifically to their population cohort, bridging the gaps of location-specific illness, trauma, language, and culture, all of which will enhance the patient-physician relationship and subsequent care. However, it is imperative to make sure these international physicians are competent and mentally fit to work after their potential ordeals. A balance might be struck between easing licentiate exam requirements, subsidizing their training in their vulnerable transition period, or similar modifications at the variable provincial levels of regulatory medicine.