bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A Tale of Two Incumbencies
Authors: Elfin Margery , Kawecki Carolyn
Published: May 2006

Seven-term representative, Beverly Byron (D) of the Sixth District in Maryland, was the first incumbent to be defeated in the 1992 primaries. Her loss was perceived as a harbinger of major change in Congress, and marked an exception to Fenno's notion that Americans hate Congress yet love their own member of Congress.

Her opponent, Thomas Hattery, fit the pundits' expectations as an agent of change. A young, progressive state legislator, Hattery won by aggressively campaigning against Byron as an out-of-touch incumbent whose lifestyle and views no longer matched those of her district. Yet, his “outsider” persona masked a highly professionalized and well-funded campaign.

Only eight months later, the man who had capitalized on citizen dissatisfaction with Congress went down to defeat by Roscoe Bartlett (R). Bartlett, a successful businessman and educator with no elective experience and highly conservative positions, captured 54% of the vote, including majorities in counties that had given Hattery strong primary support. The tables had turned: Hattery had become the insider whom the historically conservative Sixth District voters repudiated. Paradoxically, although the Sixth District race exemplified change, Bartlett differed little from the previous incumbent.
Choosing the Vice President
Authors: Nelson Michael
Published: May 2006

How—and how well—does the modern process of vice presidential selection work? What can be learned by considering the nominations of Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen by the Democrats and Sen. Dan Quayle of Indiana by the Republicans in 1988?

Most students and practitioners of American politics agree as a matter of principle that vice presidents should be chosen with their constitutional role as presidential successor uppermost in mind. Nine vice presidents, more than a fifth of those who have held the office, have succeeded to the presidency. (They served as president for forty-two years, twenty-nine of them in this century). During one recent period from 1945 to 1977, vice presidents who became president by succession occupied the Oval Office fully half the time. Illnesses, impeachment proceedings, and assassination attempts have made succession an active possibility during twenty of the nation's forty presidencies (Goldstein 1982, 207-08). Every postwar vice president except Walter F. Mondale has become the subject of unusual public concern because of some event or condition that raised the possibility that he would succeed to the presidency.

To the extent that the concern for presidential succession is taken seriously, it implies two governance criteria for evaluating the vice presidential selection process. The most important governance criterion is the competence of nominees for vice president to be president. Historically, six of the nine successions have occurred during the vice president's first year in office, suggesting that even the best on-the-job training is no substitute for a wise initial choice.
National Voter Registration Reform: How It Might Be Won
Authors: Piven Frances Fox , Cloward Richard A.
Published: May 2006

Congress is once again considering the possibility of enacting national voter registration reform. The Universal Voter Registration Act—introduced by Alan Cranston (D-CA) in the Senate and by John Conyers (D-MI) in the House—would require the states to establish both day-of-election registration and mail-in registration, and it would also require “all Federal agencies and all State, county, and municipal agencies receiving grant-in-aid monies” to offer voter registration to the public. Jesse Jackson has since taken up support of the bill, and Governor Dukakis, no champion of registration reform in his own state, acceded to Jackson's demand that it be endorsed by the Democratic party platform. And then there is a second bill being shaped by Representative Al Swift (D-WA) which would require states to make voter registration an automatic part of processing people for drivers' licenses and identification cards in motor vehicle offices. This bill may also be expanded to include other federally-assisted state agencies, such as unemployment and welfare.

Certainly something should be done. Just a shade more than half of Americans will go to the polls in November 1988, compared with turnout levels between 75% and 95% in other western democracies. High turnout is made easy elsewhere because citizens are placed on registration lists automatically when they come of age, or they are registered periodically by government-sponsored door-to-door canvasses. In the United States, by contrast, only 63% of those eligible are registered; more than 65 million are not, and two out of three of them are below the median income.
Citizenship and Constitutionalism in Post-Communist Regimes
Authors: Elkin Stephen L.
Published: May 2006

The recent events in Eastern Europe, and, for a brief moment, those last spring in China are initial steps in what may be the birth of stable democratic regimes. We are witnessing the early stages of great dramas in which whole peoples attempt to give shape to their political lives. These are the high moments of politics, an outpouring of energy from which enduring political institutions of popular control may be born. These are also times of enormous danger in which the seeds of future failures may be sown.

By thinking of these events in broadly constitutional terms, we may not only gain some perspective on what is occurring, but we may also increase our understanding of constitutionalism more generally. This can only do us, i.e., Americans, some good, inclined as we are to think of constitutional matters as the specific concern of courts. The Eastern Europeans and the Chinese may increase our understanding of the connections between constitutionalism and the creation of democratic regimes, and why such regimes may fail to take hold. These recent events also may have the benefit of reminding American political scientists that the creation of democratic constitutional regimes is one of their most important subjects, one that cannot be left to lawyers. After all, much of what we study exists because of a successful act of political constitution.
Rejoinder to Piven and Cloward
Authors: Bennett Stephen Earl
Published: May 2006

Piven and Cloward are right. Someone is confused. Readers of PS can decide who. Piven and Cloward claim they have been misunderstood. They say their goal, particularly in Why Americans Don't Vote, was to highlight the inadequacies of three “schools” of turnout studies, “party behavior,” “legal-institutional,” and “social-psychological,” and to suggest a “synthesis” of those approaches.

“Misunderstanding,” it seems, is widespread. At least two reviews of their book (Wattenberg, 1989; Pomper, 1989) faulted Piven and Cloward for failing to explain why, if personal registration is the main reason for low turnouts, voting has fallen during a period of liberalized statutes and for a “quick dismissal of attitudinal variables” (Wattenberg). Pomper (p. 1398) noted that Piven and Cloward “contemptuously dismiss (socialpsychological) explanations as ‘normal science’ and ‘the witless use of multiple correlational analyses,’ asserting instead that ‘the political context determines whether these factors will have a significant effect on participation’ ([Piven and Cloward, 1988b:] 117–120).” Bastedo (1989) interpreted Piven and Coward's 1989 article as strictly an attack on registration laws.
“Not on My Watch”
Authors: Boster Ronald S.
Published: May 2006

To fill in the “black hole” between remaining S&L assets and what is owed to depositors will cost about $200 billion in 1991 dollars. By any measure, this is a lot of money and is in fact about equivalent to the undiscounted $500 billion figure ineptly professed by the General Accounting Office and widely echoed in media reports, political speeches, and on talk shows.

An important aspect of this cost is that it is history—gone for good. It will not come back as the result of an economic rebound, for instance. In fact, the longer it takes to pay off this bill, the higher it will go.

I speak with less conviction about such non-dollar costs of the S&L crisis as the loss of public confidence in public institutions and their officials. I do, however, believe they too are significant, and I do not agree with the cynics who argue that there was little or no confidence left to lose.
Capitalism and Democracy
Authors: Almond Gabriel A.
Published: May 2006

Joseph Schumpeter, a great economist and social scientist of the last generation, whose career was almost equally divided between Central European and American universities, and who lived close to the crises of the 1930s and '40s, published a book in 1942 under the title, Capitalism, Socialism, and Democracy. The book has had great influence, and can be read today with profit. It was written in the aftergloom of the great depression, during the early triumphs of Fascism and Nazism in 1940 and 1941, when the future of capitalism, socialism, and democracy all were in doubt. Schumpeter projected a future of declining capitalism, and rising socialism. He thought that democracy under socialism might be no more impaired and problematic than it was under capitalism.

He wrote a concluding chapter in the second edition which appeared in 1946, and which took into account the political-economic situation at the end of the war, with the Soviet Union then astride a devastated Europe. In this last chapter he argues that we should not identify the future of socialism with that of the Soviet Union, that what we had observed and were observing in the first three decades of Soviet existence was not a necessary expression of socialism. There was a lot of Czarist Russia in the mix. If Schumpeter were writing today, I don't believe he would argue that socialism has a brighter future than capitalism. The relationship between the two has turned out to be a good deal more complex and intertwined than Schumpeter anticipated.
Political Views from Below: A Survey of Beijing Residents
Authors: Zhong Yang , Chen Jie , Scheb John M.
Published: May 2006

With the death of Deng Xiaoping, China's political future is once again in the spotlight. Debate over the viability of the current political regime in China started immediately after the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown when the prospects for reform in the People's Republic of China (PRC) and the fate of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) projected by China watchers were then overwhelmingly pessimistic (Ditmer 1989; Swaine 1989). Eight years after the Tiananmen Square events, the survival of the CCP against all odds (including the aftermath of the collapse of communist regimes in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union) is in itself no small miracle. The post-Tiananmen political regime in China has by and large been stable. Not only has the CCP survived, it has made impressive economic progress in recent years. This new development has caused a major reassessment of the situation in the PRC among China watchers. Nicholas Kristoff, in the New York Times (1993), called the phenomenon of China's rapid economic growth in an authoritarian environment the “riddle of China.” One China specialist even posed the question whether China is where Samuel Huntington's “third wave” stopped and whether the PRC would be an exception to the fall of communism worldwide (Nathan 1993).

The most often cited factors accounting for the political tranquillity in the PRC are its remarkable economic growth and its political oppression (Nathan 1993). These two factors are certainly indispensable in understanding developments in China after 1989.
Lessons of a Political Science Webcaster
Authors: West Darrell M.
Published: May 2006

Until I developed a new web site, I had no idea how much personal information webcasters collected on visitors. I always had assumed that surfing the Internet was an anonymous experience. The net was a benign tool that made my job easier. It brought the latest information on politics and media to my fingertips and eliminated my need to dig through dusty old newspapers.

In part, it was seeing how the web facilitated my political science work that convinced me to set up my own nonprofit site dedicated to state and national politics. If the Internet was such a positive force for public education, perhaps my site could inform people about political events, upcoming campaigns, and policy controversies.

Now that I am a certified webcaster, however, I am astonished at the level of detail available to those running Internet sites. Every time you visit a web site, your behavior is monitored. Webcasters don't know your name, but we know your Internet provider. If you log on through a school, university, business, or governmental agency, we generally can identify your institutional affiliation. In addition, we know what files you look at and how long you spend viewing each item down to the second.

This is an obvious goldmine for webcasters interested in catering to the tastes of their audience.
Of Time and Presidential Election Forecasts
Authors: Erikson Robert S. , Wlezien Christopher
Published: May 2006

How far in advance can one predict the next presidential election? Forecasting as late as election eve is trivially easy, at least since the advent of polling. Forecasting as early as two or four years in advance is virtually impossible (see, e.g., Norpoth 1995). It is at some time between the previous midterm election and election day that electoral expectations come into focus.

The evolving expectations of the 1996 election cycle offer a familiar example. A year ago, Clinton was widely considered unelectable. As of this writing (November 1995), Clinton is perceived as a mild favorite for 1996. By the time you read this essay in spring 1996, a new consensus may emerge. Expectations will harden by election day, when the verdict is not likely to surprise (Gelman and King 1993).

“Trial heat” polls are one way to predict elections (see, e.g., Campbell and Wink 1990), but they are notoriously unreliable when conducted more than a year in advance. A year in advance of the two Reagan elections, for instance, Reagan trailed Carter in 1979 and Mondale in 1983 in the polls. We can, however, examine other early indicators of election “fundamentals.” These indicators include the results of another poll question that is asked regularly throughout the electoral cycle: the president's approval rating in the Gallup poll. Various earlier models of the presidential vote have incorporated a measure of approval (Sigelman 1979; Brody and Sigelman 1983; Abramowitz 1988; Lewis-Beck and Rice 1992).
The Politics of Middle East Politics
Authors: Green Jerrold D.
Published: May 2006

The Middle East field is in a crisis within the broader discipline of political science. A review of major departments of political science reveals surprisingly few that have full professors with the politics of the Middle East as their primary research focus. This lacuna exists at such universities as Harvard, Yale, Michigan, Stanford, Berkeley, MIT, Chicago, Ohio State, Emory, Brown, Dartmouth, North Carolina, Rice, Pittsburgh, Brandeis, Wisconsin, and elsewhere. Some of these departments have no Middle East faculty at all, others have denied tenure to deserving junior faculty, while still others have an interest in the region but claim to lack resources to make the necessary appointments.

The situation is clearly better at institutions such as Columbia, NYU, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Johns Hopkins SAIS, Indiana, UCLA, Texas, Princeton, Georgetown, George Washington, Rutgers, and a few others. Nonetheless, there are problems here too. Some faculty are administrators and do not teach a full load. Others may be nearing retirement and are concerned that they will not be replaced by a scholar who also specializes in the Middle East. Although we can disagree about particular institutions or individuals (e.g., Is so-and-so “really” a Middle East scholar?), it is evident that this field is in danger of being marginalized both in professional recognition by the discipline as a whole, and in political science departments that may appreciate having Middle East politics courses on the books, but not the scholarship of the course instructor.

Disregard for the Middle East field can be attributed to an array of political and disciplinary factors with which most of us are familiar. And one could reasonably expand the problem to include all area studies.
A Primary/Secondary Democracy Distinction
Authors: Werlin Herbert H.
Published: May 2006

Just as sportsmanship is essential for competitive sports, statesmanship is necessary for competitive democracy. This obvious assertion, which I followed with a distinction between primary and secondary democracy, was greeted with some misunderstanding when it was presented at a 1993 American Political Science Association workshop on democratization headed by Gabriel Almond. Because this distinction appears to be controversial, let me defend it here as a way to overcome some of the quandaries found in the literature on democracy; to link democracy to development; and to suggest more fruitful approaches to encouraging democracy than elections.

Professor Almond's response to my primary/secondary democracy distinction was to point out that those participating in his workshop had used a definition of democracy presented by Dahl (1971) in his book on polyarchy, emphasizing two dimensions: widespread participation and contestation (including competition and conflict). This seems to me a one-sided definition (focusing almost exclusively on what I call “primary democracy”), leaving out the aspects emerging from secondary democracy: a mutual respect among competing groups and between leaders and followers and consensus on governmental goals and procedures.

Without secondary democracy, primary democracy tends to be meaningless, much like an Olympics without the necessary conditions for sporting events and rules for participating, competing, and officiating. Another way of making the distinction here presented would be the “two ideals of democracy” suggested by Mansbridge (1991, 7): “one based on conflict, the other on commonality.”
Consultants and Direct Democracy
Authors: Magleby David B. , Patterson Kelly D.
Published: May 2006

Proponents of direct legislation maintain that the initiative and popular referendum empower ordinary citizens to set the agenda of politics. Some argue it shifts “ultimate authority from representatives in state legislatures, city councils, and even Congress to the people themselves” (Schmidt 1989, vii). Such elections, so the argument goes, produce greater voter interest in elections and higher voter turnout. Those in favor of the process also contend that it is an important check on special interests which exert too much control over elected politicians (Magleby 1984, chap. 2; Cronin 1989).

Critics of direct democracy raise concerns about the quality of deliberation voters give to issues. Voters can be confused by ballot question wording or respond negatively to the length of the ballots. Moreover, because voters lack the simplifying devices of partisanship and candidate appeal, they may be more susceptible to the manipulations of campaign consultants.

How well do these longstanding arguments for and against direct legislation reflect our actual experience with the process in the 1990s? Arguments for direct democracy depend largely on how the process is conducted. If the process can be manipulated by special interests or relies on questionable tactics, then many of the advantages claimed for the process disappear. In this article, we argue that political consultants play a significant role in the conduct of direct democracy. These consultants normally work directly for organized interests without the constraints imposed by candidates or parties.
Economists and Health Reform
Authors: Fein Rashi
Published: May 2006

The design of a health care reform program requires contributions from many disciplines. While we know that all disciplines are equal, we are also aware that some are more equal than others. I believe the record would show that, at this time and in this nation, economics is one of the fields of study that is “more equal” than others. Why are economists so important? What impact does the presence of these economists have on the development of health reform legislation? What price—if any—do all of us pay for the under-representation of various other disciplines? Some of the answers to these and other questions can be found in the accompanying essays by persons whose knowledge and experience lies in the field of political science. I propose to try to address these matters from the vantage of the discipline in which I was educated—political economy, as it was known at Johns Hopkins when I studied there.

It is not difficult to list some of the various factors that have propelled economists to the center of America's health care debate. Certainly it is the case that many of the issues raised by the health crisis and by proposals for health reform impinge on the economist's domain. Even without taking account of the imperialistic tendency of economists to view all of human behavior as that of rational economic actors and thus to lay claim to the study of virtually all human interactions, numerous matters do legitimately fall within the scope of economics and are of long-standing concern to economists.
Why Justice Ginsburg Is Wrong About States Expanding Abortion Rights
Authors: Nossiff Rosemary
Published: May 2006

The growing strength of the pro-life movement in the 1980s and the escalating violence of parts of the movement in the 1990s have led many commentators to question the value of the Supreme Court's decision in Roe v. Wade. Had the Supreme Court not lifted first trimester restrictions on abortion in its 1973 decision in Roe, so the argument runs, the states would have gradually enacted laws to change their restrictive abortion laws anyway, thus avoiding the agonizing national controversy that ensued.

One of the most prominent supporters of this position was Ruth Bader Ginsburg. During her confirmation hearings to the Supreme Court last summer, her views about the Roe decision re-entered the public arena. In the course of the hearings she asserted that like the guarantees of individual autonomy found in several Amendments, the right to an abortion should also be grounded in the equal protection provisions of the Constitution, thereby linking women's equality with the ability to control their reproductive function.
Replication: A View From the Streets
Authors: Meier Kenneth J.
Published: May 2006

The public discussion over replication has been ongoing among political scientists for approximately three years. I welcome PS and the American Political Science Association to this debate. The American Journal of Political Science (AJPS) has operated with a replication policy since January 1, 1994. The first part of this essay reflects my views on replication; the second, my experiences as one of the first editors to adopt the policy.
Data Accessibility in Political Science: Putting the Principle Into Practice
Authors: Box-Steffensmeier Janet M. , Tate Katherine
Published: May 2006

Like Gary King and Paul Herrnson, we believe that making our data accessible can strengthen and advance scholarly knowledge. King and Herrnson, however, disagree about the measures necessary to ensure that data are widely available to achieve this collective good. Herrnson criticizes King's recommendations as potentially bad for the profession. As scholars who have collected data and relied on others' data for our own research, and—equally important—as relatively new Ph.D.s in political science, we have our own perspective in this debate over replication and data accessibility.
Cautious Reflections on a Data-Archiving Policy for Political Science
Authors: Gibson James L.
Published: May 2006

Gary King and the Methodology Organized Section of APSA have certainly done the profession an important service by point out some of the deficiencies of our current practices on archiving data sets. For 40 years now, political scientists have grumbled about the lack of availability of major data sets (with the McClosky (1960) data being perhaps the most prominent example), so it is high time that the profession as a whole adopts some guidelines and standards. King's article in this journal is an important way to start the discussion.
Engaging the Periphery—More Busywork for Political Scientists
Authors: Aberbach Joel D. , Rockman Bert A.
Published: May 2006

From one standpoint, it is quite easy to concur with Gary King's exhortations on behalf of researchers making their data sets publicly available. His plea is, after all, consistent with a basic canon of scientific work, namely, that results be capable of replication. Our disagreements with the position taken by King have to do both with practicalities and with an excessively narrow focus on what it means to reassess a given set of findings—issues that we think Paul Herrnson addresses quite tellingly in his statement.
Computer Modeling Using Spreadsheets and Related Software
Authors: Grafton Carl , Permaloff Anne
Published: May 2006

Computer models hold a continuing fascination for political scientists. Part of their attraction derives from being working miniatures like mechanical toys. They also hold the less enjoyable but more scientific promise of allowing something akin to laboratory experimentation—denied to political scientists in most circumstances because of cost or the nature of the subject matter.

Spreadsheets are powerful tools for the construction of simple or complex models. At their core, spreadsheets are nothing more than cells arranged in columns and rows into which labels, numbers, or formulas can be placed. The numbers and formulas can be arranged in infinite variety, and in modern spreadsheets they are supplemented by such features as built-in formulas called functions, macro languages which are highly flexible programming environments, data query features, and graphics capabilities.

Edith Stokey's and Richard Zeckhauser's clearly explained difference equation models lend themselves especially well to rendition on a spreadsheet (1978, 47–73). Stokey and Zeckhauser furnish the case of public housing units in a city deteriorating at the rate of 10% per year to the point of being uninhabitable. If 800 units per year are built, will the total number of public housing units reach an equilibrium and, if so, will it be stable?

Such a problem is expressed in difference equation form as follows:

Unitsn = Unitsn − 1 – .1

* Unitsn − 1 + 800

or

Unitsn = .9 * Unitsn − 1 + 800

The number of housing units in any year n equals .9 times the number of housing units in the previous year plus 800. The beginning of a spreadsheet solution to this problem is shown in Figure 1.
John C. Calhoun, Lani Guinier, and Minority Rights
Authors: Safford John L.
Published: May 2006

Early in the first year of his presidency, Bill Clinton floated the name of Lani Guinier to be the Justice Department's chief civil-rights lawyer. Although Guinier never made it to Senate confirmation hearings, she was well qualified by education and professional training. Moreover, as a black Jewish female, it was evident to her that majoritarian democracy is often less than fair—and she was forthright about wishing to correct it by democratic means.

Ironically, the minority veto, one of the alleged means by which Guinier wished to assure fairness, harkened back to the process of government advocated by John C. Calhoun (1782–1850). For Calhoun, constitutionalism or limited government was justified by epistemological nominalism, and was ensured by the concurrent majority and nullification.

Like that of Aristotle, James Madison, and Karl Marx, Calhoun's political philosophy was based on class analysis. Indeed, the historian of American thought, Richard Hofstadter, subtitled a chapter on Calhoun, “The Marx of the Master Class.” As Hofstadter explains, in Calhoun,

… there is discernible a rough parallel to several ideas that were later elaborated and refined by Marx: the idea of pervasive exploitation and class struggle in history; a labor theory of value and of a surplus appropriated by the capitalists; the concentration of capital under capitalistic production; the fall of working-class conditions to the level of subsistence; the growing revolt of the laboring class against the capitalists; the prediction of social revolution.
Impacts of Ideology on Press Reports About Events in the Former Soviet Union
Authors: Field Mona
Published: May 2006

In a recent attempt to get caught up on the important events occurring in the former Soviet Union, I rediscovered the importance not only of learning data but of exploring the ideology behind the data. In an effort to update my students on the vast changes in our country's former adversary, I read as many diverse sources as possible in order to make sense of the events. Out of this came the predictable, yet fascinating, conclusion that political “facts” may be perceived so differently by observers with diverse ideological perspectives that the facts themselves appear to change depending upon who is describing them. I soon realized I was doing both substantive research into the “facts” and an equally important investigation into the biases underlying the reporting of the “facts.”
The Rise and Growth of American Politics: A Sketch of Constitutional Developments by Henry Jones Ford
Authors: Kumar Martha Joynt
Published: May 2006

“It is the rule of our politics that no vexed question is settled except by executive policy,” noted Henry Jones Ford (1851–1925) in his 1898 work describing the state of national politics. “Whatever may be the feeling of Congress towards the President, it cannot avoid an issue which he insists upon making,” Ford wrote as he continued with his discussion of the central role played by the president as the leader of his party (283–84). Even presidents whose congressional party members turned their backs on the leadership of their presidents were needed to provide their parties in Congress with an agenda, as was the case with Presidents John Tyler, Andrew Johnson, and Grover Cleveland. “Although repudiated by the parties which elected them, [they] furnished the issues upon which party action turned,” noted Ford (284). Even though he may have arrived at his views through shaky research means and was often inaccurate in his predictions about the direction of American politics, in the late nineteenth century Ford noted the special energy provided by the presidency to our political system. He anticipated the soonto-come activist presidencies of Theodore Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson.
Henry Jones Ford on the Development of American Institutions
Authors: Skowronek Stephen
Published: May 2006

American political scientists in the 1890s were deeply divided on the central question they had chosen to address: Where to place government in the United States in the larger scheme of Western political development. The “idealists,” led by John Burgess of Columbia University, argued that the American Constitution had “perfected the Aryan genius for political civilization” by “emancipating it from the remaining prejudices of European Teutonism.” Late-century America was, in their view, “the cosmopolitan model for political organization in the world” (Burgess 1895, 406). By placing the U.S. in this advanced position, the idealists mounted a strong case against demands for structural reform. Burgess himself thought that the proper American response to the new governmental challenges of the industrial age was more of the same. He urged a strengthening of the separation of powers, a further bolstering of the judicial and executive branches to counter the increasingly radical impulses of the states and Congress.
The Christian Right and the 1994 Elections: A View from the States
Authors: Green John C.
Published: May 2006

In 1994 the news media rediscovered the Christian Right and came away perplexed. The movement seemed to contradict conventional wisdom at every turn. First, many observers were surprised that it was still strong and active, given the responsibility assigned to it for the Republican defeat in 1992. Second, its activities were neither all successes nor failures, making the story-line difficult to follow. How could a movement with such a controversial agenda contribute to unexpected Republican gains in places like Minnesota, while at the same time, candidates prominently identified with it, such as Oliver North, were defeated? Why was the Christian Right at once so strong and so weak?

No doubt much of this confusion results from well-known proclivities of journalists, including a penchant for “horse race” coverage, a focus on controversy, and a poor sense of history. There is, however, also a deeper misunderstanding at work. It is widely assumed that religion is on the wane in modern societies. Thus, its repeated expressions in public affairs, such as the Christian Right, come as a great surprise. In response, many observers are ready to interpret such expressions as temporary aberrations that will quickly fade away. In fact, the Christian Right has been discovered and dismissed in the press at least four times since it emerged on the national scene with the Moral Majority in 1979. This pattern was difficult to replicate in 1994.
Christians and Quistians in Minnesota
Authors: Gilbert Christopher P.
Published: May 2006

When Minnesota's popular sitting governor, a moderate Independent Republican (IR), was denied his own party's endorsement for re-election in June 1994, political analysts nationwide took notice. Throughout the nation, perhaps the most visible manifestation of the rise to prominence of the Christian Right was the quixotic campaign of a little known, fifth generation Minnesota farmer named Allen Quist. But in the wake of Quist's spectacular failure in September's primary election, many observers drew the erroneous conclusion that, at least in Minnesota, the electoral strength of the Christian Right was vastly overstated. In looking beyond the gubernatorial race, it is clear that the Christian Right played a pivotal role in elevating a first-term U.S. representative to the Senate and driving substantial IR gains in the state legislature. Moreover, these successes—and Quist's failure— provide important clues for predicting the future of the movement in Minnesota and elsewhere.
Young Americans' Indifference to Media Coverage of Public Affairs
Authors: Bennett Stephen Earl
Published: May 2006

Although young Americans are normally less engaged in politics than their elders (Converse with Niemi 1971), today's youth are more withdrawn from public affairs than earlier birth cohorts were when they were young (Bennett 1997). One indicator of youthful disregard for politics is their avoidance of exposure to mass media coverage of public affairs (Pew Center 1996, 1997; Times Mirror Center 1990). Polls conducted during the 1990s indicate that adults under 30 are considerably less likely than those over 30 to read newspapers and to watch TV news-casts, and slightly less inclined to listen to the news on radio. The Pew Research Center's April 1996 poll, for example, found that 31% of persons under 30 claimed to have read a newspaper the day before they were interviewed (compared with 76% of individuals over 30), 45% of young people said they had watched a TV news show yesterday (as did 86% of persons over 30), and 37% of the young had listened to the news on radio yesterday (versus 56% of people over 30).

The young are also less likely than older persons to have dispositions that motivate them to use the news media. The Pew Center's February 1997 poll shows, for example, that individuals under 30 are less likely than those over 30 to say they look forward to reading a daily newspaper (12% vs. 32%) and to report enjoying TV newscasts (14% vs. 30%).

This is a study of young adults' disconnection from mass media coverage of public affairs.
A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats: Political Science Department Reputation and the Reputation of the University
Authors: Lowry Robert C. , Silver Brian D.
Published: May 2006

The publication of the latest rating of doctoral programs by the National Research Council (NRC 1995) has sparked great interest among university faculties. For some, the results vindicated years of focused efforts to improve their department's capacity, performance, and image. For others, it generated frustration because of the small change in scores from previous NRC rankings. And for still others, the NRC report occasioned soul-searching or defensive rationalization, including complaints that the reputational rankings did not reflect the “true” quality of the faculty (Magner 1995).

The NRC study conducted surveys of faculty in each of 41 scientific fields to learn about each doctoral-granting faculty's reputation for scholarly quality (93Q) and for the effectiveness of their doctoral program (93E). In addition, the NRC gathered information about the performance of departments (number of publications, citations to the publications of faculty, and external funding) as well as some other characteristics of the faculty (number of faculty, number of full professors) and doctoral student enrollments (number of students enrolled, number of Ph.D.'s granted in recent years). With these data, it is possible to explore the extent to which reputations are responsive to the performance of the faculty as well as to other department characteristics.
Su Voto Es Su Voz: Latino Political Empowerment and the Immigration Challenge
Authors: Baker Susan Gonzaléz
Published: May 2006

Will Latin American migrants bring with them the tradition of the “mordida,” the lack of involvement in public affairs, etc.? … ‘Gobernar es poblar’ … Can ‘homo contraceptivus’ compete with ‘homo progenetiva’ if borders aren't controlled?.…perhaps this is the first instance in which those with their pants up are going to get caught by those with their pants down!…

(John Tanton, founder of the interest groups FAIR (Federation for American Immigration Reform), U.S. English, and ZPG (Zero Population Growth), 1988)

Clearly, Latino population growth has made its presence known among those who concern themselves with U.S. political culture. With half of the Latino population boom attributable to international migration, the Latino foreign-born have come under particular fire. John Tanton, a Michigan opthamologist and outspoken policy activist, served as the 1980s prelude to equally-heated debates throughout the 1990s—debates that engaged far more formidable political and policy figures, from the immigration restrictionism of California governor Pete Wilson and economist George Borjas to the immigration advocacy of National Council of La Raza director Raul Yzaguirre and economist Julian Simon.

At the core of Tanton's “warnings” in the 1980s are a provocative mix of half-truths. It is a fact that Latino population growth has outstripped that of non-Hispanic whites since 1980—by a factor of nine, to be precise. By the turn of the 21st century, one in ten U.S. residents will be Latino-origin (Baker 1996). It is a fallacy, however, that this burgeoning population growth presages a new millenium in which “lack of involvement in public affairs” will characterize the Latino contribution to politics in America. That fallacy is revealed most succinctly in the slogan of the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project, launched in 1974 in San Antonio, Texas: “Su voto es su voz” (Your vote is your voice). The operational result of that principle, backed up by decades of diligent voter registration training in towns and cities across the United States, has been the registration of over 2 million Latino voters and consistent increases in both registration and turnout over time, relative to African-American and non-Hispanic white voting patterns (Southwest Voter Research Institute 1996).
The Scholarly Recount: A Useful Addition to the Methods of Voting Research … With An Example
Authors: Bain Henry
Published: May 2006

“Elections are the ultimate mode of reducing each of us to a bean and counting us” (Verba 1993, 684).

Things are not really that bad. On election day the voter, marking the typical American long ballot, makes a pronouncement more complex and nuanced than a single tally. We can learn much about voting behavior by paying attention to the full message that each voter sends us.

This can be done by conducting a “scholarly recount”: sorting the ballots into groups representing the possible combinations of choices (Democratic for Congress, Republican for governor, Democratic for state senator, etc.) and counting them. The relative sizes of the groups can not only give us a precise answer to the often-asked question about the magnitude of ticket splitting, but also answer the more general and more important question: How do the voters distribute themselves among all possible combinations of candidate choices—two straight tickets and a great many mixed ones? The analyst may also find, in the composition of the candidate combinations attracting the largest numbers of voters, some clues as to the candidate characteristics and voter attitudes that are exerting the greatest influence on the ballot markings.
Service Learning and Political Socialization
Authors: Owen Diana
Published: May 2006

Social scientists' initial forays into the field of political socialization were directly linked to goals of creating good citizens beginning in childhood (Merriam 1931, 1934; Sears 1990; Wallas 1908). With the advent of behavioralism, however, researchers began viewing the study of political socialization as an end in itself (Ball 1995). The emphasis on objective, scientific analysis caused researchers to abandon participant observation, in-depth interviews, and classroom experiments, thus precluding the collection of interesting and valuable data that could be used to inform the development of civic education programs. Further, the dominant theoretical model assumed that political orientations are transmitted from family members and teachers to young people. This model led to rather sterile debates about which agent was the most influential, rather than to discussions about how agents might successfully inspire the development of democratic citizenship values in children and adolescents (Torney-Purta 1999).

Problems of theory and method, contradictory research findings, and evidence of the volatility of political orientations over time contributed to declining scholarly interest in the field of political socialization in the 1980s, especially investigations of preadults (Cook 1985; Merelman 1986). However, political socialization research is currently experiencing a renaissance sparked in part by concerns about citizenship education, of which service learning is an important component. Networks such as the APSA Task Force on Civic Education have been formed to unite educators and researchers. These networks allow for an unprecedented exchange of ideas linking academic inquiry and service learning.
Making Sense of the Census: It's Political
Authors: Brunell Thomas L.
Published: May 2006

With “Partisan Politics at Work,” Anderson and Fienberg continue their spirited, if misleading, defense of the plan to statistically adjust the census count. Unfortunately, their argument in favor of making the adjustments misses the mark and they gloss over some of the most serious of the evidence presented against the methods of adjustment. Rather, they are more interested in trying to remove politics from an inherently political process, which I maintain is an unrealistic goal. I conclude my portion of this exchange by reiterating my position that statistically adjusting the census totals will, at best, provide numbers that are no better than those of a traditional headcount; at worst, doing so may provide very inaccurate data.

At the end of their second article, Anderson and Fienberg plead for “legislation to insulate the Census Bureau from efforts at political manipulation and restore to it the authority to manage the technical details of how to fulfill the constitutional mandate for a census.” I do not share these wishes. Why does the federal bureaucracy need any more protection from congressional oversight than it already enjoys? Certainly, Census Bureau officials have more technical expertise and they are more readily able to judge whether a particular sampling plan is sound than are the collective members of the U.S. House of Representatives. Nevertheless, the Bureau remains the fiduciary for Congress. Erecting barriers between the two groups is not a solution to any identifiable problem.
Secondary particle formation and evidence of heterogeneous chemistry during a wood smoke episode in Texas
Authors: Buzcu B. , Yue Z. W. , Fraser M. P. , Nopmongcol U. , Allen D. T.
Published: May 2006

To evaluate the impact of regional wildfires in east Texas on fine particulate matter concentration and composition, source apportionment calculations were performed on a set of samples collected at three sites in Houston during a wood smoke episode. Separately, samples collected at the same sites on days not influenced by wood smoke, were analyzed for comparison. The analysis of the data collected on non–wood smoke episode days indicated that the major contributors to PM2.5 mass were secondary sulfate, diesel and gasoline powered vehicles, other organics (difference between the measured organic mass by carbon (OMC) and the sum of the primary OC source contributions), wood combustion and meat cooking. Secondary sulfate (not apportioned to a primary source) represented almost 100% of the sulfate measured whereas primary sources were found to account for the majority of the measured organic carbon at three sites (64–69%). On the wood smoke episode days, major sources of PM2.5 were found to be the same as on the days without wood smoke, except for the contribution of the meat cooking source, which became insignificant on the wood smoke episode days. The contribution of the wood combustion source increased by an average of 200% at all sites on wood smoke episode days, whereas the contributions of other primary sources did not increase significantly during the wood smoke episode. PM2.5 mass almost doubled during the wood smoke episode, largely because of the contributions of the secondary sources. The mass concentrations of secondary sulfate and organics not attributed to primary sources increased 68% and 228% at each site, respectively, during the wood smoke episode. The increase in the contributions of secondary sulfate aerosols during the wood smoke episode was examined using a 3‐D photochemical grid model. The simulations, together with ambient data, indicated that the increases in sulfate concentrations observed during this wood smoke episode were consistent with heterogeneous/surface reactions on wood smoke particles.
Effect of ocean surface currents on wind stress, heat flux, and wind power input to the ocean
Authors: Dawe Jordan T. , Thompson LuAnne
Published: May 2006

The effect of ocean surface currents on bulk algorithm calculations of wind stress and heat flux in a 1/5° resolution model of the North Pacific is investigated. Two year‐long model runs are performed, one with wind speed modified by ocean surface velocities and one without. Basin averaged heat flux and wind stress differences between the models were only 1–2%, but localized flux reductions of ∼10% were found in the tropics and in the Kuroshio current system. Basin average power input by the wind to the general circulation was reduced by 27% when the effect of surface currents was included. Tropical surface currents were reduced by 10%, tropical surface temperature warmed by 0.1°C, and equatorial upwelling was reduced by 15% due to the changed velocity field.