bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
From Investor-owned Utility to Independent Power Producer
Authors: Ishii Jun
Published: May 2011

We examine the issue of why some parent companies of U.S. electric utilities have expanded into domestic independent power production (IPP) but not others. We evaluate the conjecture that the parent companies who have chosen to participate in recently restructured U.S. wholesale electricity markets are those with the most generation cost advantages. Specifically, we empirically investigate the link between apparent advantages in two types of generation costs — operation &maintenance (O&M) and capital — and the IPP participation decision. We use electric utility data from FERC Form 1 and combine it with IPP data collected from various industry sources. The data is analyzed using both a descriptive approach and a simple, empirical competitive entry model. We find that utilities with lower O&M costs are more likely to expand into IPP. Also, utility financial characteristics, reflecting possible capital cost advantages, seem to matter mainly for the largest utilities.
Is the Strategic Petroleum Reserve our Ace in the Hole?
Authors: Considine Timothy J.
Published: May 2011

The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is often touted as a vital asset in mitigating the adverse effects of oil supply disruptions on the economy. The importance of SPR, however, largely depends upon the effect of stock sales on market prices. To address this question, this study develops a monthly econometric model of the world crude oil market. Inventories, consumption, production, and prices for crude oil are determined within a dominant producer pricing framework in which Saudi Arabia adjusts output based upon market demand and competitive fringe supply. The estimation results provide additional support for the dominant producer pricing model for world oil markets and reasonable estimates of short-run supply and demand elasticities. Several model simulations are conducted to assess the impacts of SPR policies. For example, the gradual build-up of the SPR by the Bush Administration resulted in a very small, almost imperceptible increase in world prices. Similarly, the Clinton sale from SPR had minor impacts on market prices. Another simulation indicates that while SPR sales can lower world prices during a supply shock, the required drawdown would be so substantial the reserve would be significantly depleted after just a few months. These findings suggest that once played, the SPR card has modest impacts on world prices and could be easily trumped by actions of other players, including output adjustments by world oil producers.
Nuclear Power: A Hedge against Uncertain Gas and Carbon Prices?
Authors: Roques Fabien A. , Nuttall William J. , Newbery David M. , Neufville Richard de , Connors Stephen
Published: May 2011

High fossil fuel prices have rekindled interest in nuclear power. This paper identifies specific characteristics making nuclear power unattractive to merchant generators in liberalized electricity markets, and argues that non-fossil fuel technologies have an overlooked ‘option value’ given fuel and carbon price uncertainty. Stochastic optimization estimates the company option value of keeping open the choice between nuclear and gas technologies. The merchant option value decreases sharply as the correlation between electricity, gas, and carbon prices rises, casting doubt on whether merchant investors have adequate incentives to choose socially efficient diversification in liberalized electricity markets.
Optimal CO2-abatement with Socio-economic Inertia and Induced Technological Change
Authors: Schwoon Malte , Tol Richard S.J.
Published: May 2011

The impact of induced technological change (ITC) in energy/climate models on the timing of optimal CO2-abatement depends on whether R&D or learning-by-doing (LBD) is the driving force. Bottom-up energy system models employing LBD suggest strong increases in optimal early abatement. In this paper we extend an existing top-down model supporting this view according to the notion that socio-economic inertia interferes with rapid technological change. We derive analytical results concerning the impact of inertia and ITC on optimal initial abatement and show a wide range of numerical simulations to illustrate magnitudes. Inertia now dominates the timing decision on early abatement, such that LBD might even have a negative effect on early abatement and the impact of R&D is limited. However, ITC still reduces costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO2-concentrations considerably.
Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Stagflation of the 1970s: Some Insights from GEM
Authors: Hunt Benjamin
Published: May 2011

Using a variant of the IMF’s Global Economy Model (GEM), featuring energy as both an intermediate input into production and a final consumption good, this paper examines the macroeconomic implications of large increases in the price of energy. Within a fully optimizing framework with nominal and real rigidities arising from costly adjustment, large increases in energy prices can generate inflation persistence similar to that seen in the 1970s if the monetary authority misperceives the economy’s supply capacity and workers are able to temporarily resist some of the erosion in their real consumption wages resulting from the energy price increase. In the absence of these two responses, the model suggests that energy price shocks cannot generate the type of stagflation witnessed in the 1970s. The analysis goes some way toward reconciling the results found in the empirical literature on the changing nature of the macroeconomic implications of oil price shocks.
Forecasting Nonlinear Crude Oil Futures Prices
Authors: Moshiri Saeed , Foroutan Faezeh
Published: May 2011

The movements in oil prices are very complex and, therefore, seem to be unpredictable. However, one of the main challenges facing econometric models is to forecast such seemingly unpredictable economic series. Traditional linear structural models have not been promising when used for oil price forecasting. Although linear and nonlinear time series models have performed much better in forecasting oil prices, there is still room for improvement. If the data generating process is nonlinear, applying linear models could result in large forecast errors. Model specification in nonlinear modeling, however, can be very case dependent and time-consuming.

In this paper, we model and forecast daily crude oil futures prices from 1983 to 2003, listed in NYMEX, applying ARIMA and GARCH models. We then test for chaos using embedding dimension, BDS(L), Lyapunov exponent, and neural networks tests. Finally, we set up a nonlinear and flexible ANN model to forecast the series. Since the test results indicate that crude oil futures prices follow a complex nonlinear dynamic process, we expect that the ANN model will improve forecasting accuracy. A comparison of the results of the forecasts among different models confirms that this is indeed the case.
The Short-Run Effects of Time-Varying Prices in Competitive Electricity Markets
Authors: Holland Stephen P. , Mansur Erin T.
Published: May 2011

We analyze the efficiency, distributional, and environmental effects of real-time pricing (RTP) adoption in the short run. Consistent with theory, our simulations of the PJM electricity market show that RTP adoption improves efficiency and compresses the distributions of loads and prices. Adoption increases average load but decreases operating profits with the largest decrease for oil-fired generation (59% when all customers adopt). Consumer surplus and welfare gains are modest (2.5% and 0.24% of the energy bill), and emissions of SO2 and NOx increase but CO2 emissions decrease. Approximately 30% of these efficiency gains could be captured by varying flat rates monthly instead of annually. Monthly flat rate adjustment has many of the same effects as RTP adoption, captures more of the deadweight loss than time of use (TOU) rates, and requires no new metering technology.
Energy Prices and Turning Points: The Relationship between Income and Energy Use/Carbon Emissions
Authors: Richmond Amy K. , Kaufmann Robert K.
Published: May 2011

Models used to test whether an environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) can be used to describe the relationship between GDP and energy use and/or carbon emissions may be biased by the omission of energy prices. Here we include real energy prices and fuel shares in models that describe energy use and carbon emissions. We test if these models show a turning point in OECD countries. Results indicate that including energy prices eliminates statistical support for a turning point and suggest that the relationship between income and both energy use and carbon emissions is represented most accurately by diminishing returns. These results imply that economic growth per se will not reduce energy use or emissions that cause global climate change.
Willingness to Pay among Swedish Households to Avoid Power Outages: A Random Parameter Tobit Model Approach
Authors: Carlsson Fredrik , Martinsson Peter
Published: May 2011

Using a contingent valuation survey, we elicit Swedish households’ willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid power outages. In the study respondents are asked to state their WTP for avoiding nine different types of outages. We therefore apply a random parameter Tobit model since there is cross-sectional heterogeneity and a proportion of zero responses. Based on the estimations, we find that the WTP depends positively on the duration of the outages, and that WTP is significantly higher for unplanned outages. The overall variation in the WTP due to observed heterogeneity in housing and socio-economic variables is small compared to the pure effects of power outages. Policy implications of those findings are discussed.
Energy and Carbon Dynamics at Advanced Stages of Development: An Analysis of the U.S. States, 1960-1999
Authors: Aldy Joseph E.
Published: May 2011

This paper explores the relationships among per capita income, energy consumption, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions by focusing on a set of economies at advanced stages of development, the U.S. states. Energy consumption and emissions grew 50-60percent on average over the 1960-1999 period. The states’ per capita energy consumption and emissions have grown on average 2 percent annually. The energy consumption income elasticity is positive but decreasing in income, although energy production takes an inverted- U shape, reflecting the electricity imports among high income states. The standard CO2 measure, corresponding to energy production, is characterized by an inverted-U environmental Kuznets curve. Adjusting emissions for interstate electricity trade yields an emissions-income relationship that peaks and plateaus. The carbon intensity of energy declines with income for total energy consumption and the industrial, residential, and commercial sectors.
Netting of Capacity in Interconnector Auctions
Authors: Höffler Felix , Wittmann Tobias
Published: May 2011

Scarce interconnector capacities are a severe obstacle to transregional competition and a unified market for electricity in the European Union. However, physically the interconnectors are rarely used up to capacity. This is due to the fact that the current allocation schemes make only limited use of the fact that currents in opposing directions cancel out. We propose a “netting” auction mechanism which makes use of this and in which even small transmission capacities can generate large competitive pressure in adjacent markets. Netting increases the usage of capacity and reduces the auctioneer’s incentive to withhold capacity from the auction.
How Malleable are the Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensities of the G7 Nations?
Authors: Bataille Chris , Rivers Nic , Mau Paulus , Joseph Chris , Tu Jian-Jun
Published: May 2011

Why do countries’ greenhouse gas (GHG) intensities differ? How much of a country’s GHG intensity is set by inflexible national circumstances, and how much may be altered by policy? These questions are common in climate change policy discourse and may influence emission reduction allocations. Despite the policy relevance of the discussion, little quantitative analysis has been done. In this paper we address these questions in the context of the G7 by applying a pair of simple quantitative methodologies: decomposition analysis and allocation of fossil fuel production emissions to end-users instead of producers. According to our analysis and available data, climate and geographic size - both inflexible national characteristics - can have a significant effect on a country’s GHG intensity. A country’s methods for producing electricity and net trade in fossil fuels are also significant, while industrial structure has little effect at the available level of data disaggregation.
Market Power and Network Constraint in a Deregulated Electricity Market
Authors: Cho In-Koo , Kim Hyunsook
Published: May 2011

This paper investigates the market power and the welfare performance of the deregulated wholesale electricity market of California between 1998 and 2000 by incorporating the structure of the transmission network. While Wolfram (1999), Borenstein, Bushnell, and Wolak (2002) and Joskow and Kahn (2002) treat the difference between the market price and the marginal production cost of the marginal generator as the indicator for market power, we decompose the difference into the market power and the inefficiency arising from the network constraint. Based on public data for the market from 1998 to 2000, we demonstrate that the welfare loss due to the finite transmission capacity accounts for 29-38% of the total annual welfare loss, while the remaining portion can be explained by the market power exercised by the generators.
Habit Formation and Consumption of Energy for Heating: Evidence from a Panel of Danish Households
Authors: Leth-Petersen Sϕren
Published: May 2011

In this paper we ask if consumption of energy for space heating by households is habit forming. A model of intertemporal consumption allocation allowing for habit-forming preferences is estimated on a register-based panel data set with high quality information about consumption of natural gas for a sample of Danish households. Results indicate that preferences are weakly habit forming.
Supply Function Equilibrium with Asymmetric Capacities and Constant Marginal Costs
Authors: Holmberg Par
Published: May 2011

This paper analytically derives a Supply Function Equilibrium (SFE) of a real-time electricity market with multiple firms and asymmetric production capacities. There is a unique SFE, which is piece-wise symmetric when firms have identical constant marginal costs. It is believed that some of the properties of the derived SFE are valid for real-time markets in general. Firms’ capacity constraints bind at different prices (i). Still firms with non-binding capacity constraints have smooth residual demand (ii). Approximating an asymmetric real-time market with a symmetric one, tends to overestimate mark-ups for small positive imbalances and underestimate mark-ups for large positive imbalances (Hi).
Customer Risk from Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing: Bill Volatility and Hedgability
Authors: Borenstein Severin
Published: May 2011

One of the most critical concerns that customers have voiced in the debate over real-time retail electricity pricing is that they would be exposed to risk from fluctuations in their electricity cost. The concern seems to be that a customer could find itself consuming a large quantity of power on the day that prices skyrocket, resulting in a high monthly bill. I analyze the magnitude of this risk, using demand data from 1142 large industrial customers, and then ask how much of this risk can be eliminated through various straightforward financial instruments. I find that very simple hedging strategies—forward purchase contracts that are already used with many RTP programs—can eliminate more than 80% of the bill volatility that would otherwise occur. I then show that a slightly more sophisticated application of these forward power purchases can significantly enhance their effect on reducing bill volatility.
Wealth Transfers Among Large Customers from Implementing Real-Time Retail Electricity Pricing
Authors: Borenstein Severin
Published: May 2011

Adoption of real-time electricity pricing—retail prices that vary hourly to reflect changing wholesale prices—removes existing cross-subsidies to those customers that consume disproportionately more when wholesale prices are highest. If their losses are substantial, these customers are likely to oppose RTP initiatives unless there is a supplemental program to offset their loss. Using data on a sample of 1142 large industrial and commercial customers in northern California, I show that RTP adoption would result in significant transfers compared to a flat-rate tariff. When compared to the time-of-use rates (simple peak/offpeak tariffs) that these customers already face, however, the transfers drop by up to 45%; even under the more extreme price volatility scenario that I examine, 90% of customers would see changes of between a 4% bill reduction and an 8% bill increase. Though customer price responsiveness reduces the loss incurred by those with high-cost demand profiles, I also demonstrate that this offsetting effect is unlikely to be large enough for most customers with costly demand patterns to completely offset their lost cross-subsidy. The analysis suggests that adoption of real-time pricing may be difficult without a supplemental program that compensates the customers who are made worse off by the change. I examine possible “two-part RTP” programs, which allow customers to purchase a baseline quantity at regulated TOU rates, and show they can be used to greatly reduce the transfers associated with adoption of RTP.
What Oil Export Levels Should We Expect From OPEC?
Authors: Gately Dermot
Published: May 2011

We analyze the levels of oil exports that should be expected from OPEC over the next 25 years. We search for a long-term, market-adaptive, robustly optimal strategy that best serves OPEC's interests, and conclude that OPEC export profits will be higher if OPEC expands its oil exports by enough to maintain OPEC exports' share of non-OPEC demand. Yet the incentives for this export expansion are relatively small - only a few percent in terms of discounted export profits - and it requires that OPEC be farsighted, because the higher export profits from faster export growth won’t be significant within the next decade. Moreover, if OPEC does maintain its exports' share of non-OPEC demand, the continued rapid growth of OPEC’s own oil consumption will require that OPEC oil output will have to increase 60% by 2030, which will be a major challenge.
Energy Economics: A Place for Energy Poverty in the Agenda?
Authors: Birol Fatih
Published: May 2011

The global energy system faces three major strategic challenges in the coming decades: the growing risk of disruptions to energy supply; the threat of environmental damage caused by energy production and use; and persistent energy poverty. The first two challenges have attracted a lot of attention from the energy-economics community, much less so the need to address the problem of energy under-development. On current trends, the number of people in poor countries relying primarily on traditional biomass for their energy needs will continue to rise, while the number lacking access to electricity will barely fall. To change this course, decisive policy action is needed urgently as part of the broader process of human development. Meeting basic human needs, such as food and shelter, must be at the heart of any strategy to alleviate poverty. Modern energy services help enable those needs to be met. In practice, concrete improvements in human welfare can be realised quickly at modest short-term cost. Strong political will and commitment on the part of the governments of the world’s poorest countries will be crucial. Rich industrialised countries have an important role to play in this process too. In addition to moral issues involved, we have obvious long-term economic, political and energy-security interests in helping developing countries along the path to energy development. The cost of providing assistance to poor countries may turn out to be far less than that of dealing with the instability and insecurity that poverty creates.
Nonlinear Dynamics in Energy Futures
Authors: Matilla-Garcia Mariano
Published: May 2011

This paper studies the possible nonlinear and chaotic nature of three energy futures: natural gas, unleaded gasoline and light crude oil. Nonlinearity is analyzed using the generalized BDS statistic, along with Kaplan’s test. The results show that nonlinearity cannot be rejected. The null hypothesis of chaos is then investigated via the stability of the largest Lyapunov exponent. Evidence of chaos is found in futures returns. Global modelling techniques, like genetic algorithms, have been used in order to estimate potential motion equations. In addition, short term forecasts in futures price movements have been conducted with these estimated equations. The results show that although forecast errors are statistically smaller than those computed with other stochastic approaches, further research on these topics needs to be done.
CO2 Prices, Energy and Weather
Authors: Mansanet-Bataller Maria , Pardo Angel , Valor Enric
Published: May 2011

One of the main objectives of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme is the establishment of a market price level for allowances that show to European CO2 emitting installations the environmental impact of their polluting activities. The aim of this paper is to focus on the daily price changes during 2005 in an attempt to examine the underlying rationality of pricing behaviour. Specifically, we study the effect of those weather and non-weather variables that academic and market agents consider as the major determinants of the of CO2 price levels. The results show that the energy sources are the principal factors in the determination of CO2 price levels, and that only extreme temperatures influence them.
Changes in Electricity Demand in the United States from the 1970s to 2003
Authors: Horowitz Marvin J.
Published: May 2011

Gaining a better understanding of how electricity demand has changed over the past three decades, particularly in light of government involvement in influencing electricity demand, is an important step towards shaping energy policy in the U.S. and internationally. This study of U.S. electricity demand finds that those states that have moderate to strong commitment to energy efficiency programs reduce electricity intensity relative to what it would have been with weak program commitment; in the residential sector by 4.4 percent, in the commercial sector by 8.1 percent, and in the industrial sector by 11.8 percent. The findings are similar with respect to levels of electricity consumption in the commercial and industrial sectors, but not the residential sector. Moreover, the evidence in this paper indicates that energy efficiency program commitment in all three sectors of the U.S. economy has transformed electricity demand with respect to three key economic variables; electricity price, income as measured by per capita income or gross state product, and technological change. Also, this study finds that nationwide spillover from energy efficiency programs may be rapid and ubiquitous in the residential sector. Estimates of the impact of California’s energy efficiency programs confirm the speculation that these efforts have dramatically reduced state electricity intensity; to date, these impacts are likely the upper bounds of the impacts of strong state-level energy efficiency program commitment.
Informational Efficiency and Interchange Transactions in Alberta’s Electricity Market
Authors: Serletis Apostolos , Bianchi Mattia
Published: May 2011

This paper aims to investigate the informational efficiency of the Alberta electricity market and also the issue of whether interchange transactions (power flows between markets) are becoming increasingly significant factors in electric power markets. In doing so, we use hourly data for all hours, peak hours, and off-peak hours over the period from January 1st, 1999 to July 31st, 2005. In testing the efficiency of the Alberta power market, we use a statistical physics approach - namely the ‘detrending moving average (DMA)’ technique, introduced by Alessio et al. (2002) and further developed by Carbone et al. (2004a, 2004b), and recently applied to energy futures markets by Serletis and Rosenberg (2007). In analyzing the relationship between power imports and exports and pool prices, we assess whether regulatory changes have modified the causal relationship between import/export volumes and the pool price. According to our results, the electricity market in Alberta is highly inefficient and cross-border trade of electricity between Alberta and neighbouring jurisdictions helps predict the price dynamics in Alberta’s electricity market.
Price Effects of Boutique Motor Fuels: Federal Environmental Standards, Regional Fuel Choices, and Local Gasoline Prices
Authors: Walls W.David , Rusco Frank W.
Published: May 2011

Federal clean air regulations have spawned a proliferation of motor fuel types that have created differentiated markets for motor fuels, increased the cost of supplying these fuels, and reduced the capacity of the supply infrastructure. In this paper we examine wholesale gasoline prices in 99 US cities over a time horizon of 204 weeks using a panel data regression model to explain fuel prices as a function of fuel attributes, the price of crude oil, and seasonal and city-market-specific effects. Our results show that fuel prices are related to the use of a special blend not widely available in the region and more costly to make, and the situation of the particular city market in relation to major refining centers or other sources of supply.
An Oligopolistic Electricity Market Model with Interdependent Segments
Authors: Pineau Pierre-Olivier , Zaccour Georges
Published: May 2011

In this paper, we model a two-period electricity market with interdependent demand, where oligopolistic generators make investments in peak- and baseload capacities. Different prices are obtained in the two periods, and residential consumers can react to prices across demand periods. We characterize the Cournot equilibrium obtained as a function of price and cross-price effects and present a numerical illustration based on the Ontario (Canada) electricity market.
Should Automobile Fuel Economy Standards be Tightened?
Authors: Fischer Carolyn , Harrington Winston , Parry Ian W.H.
Published: May 2011

This paper develops analytical and numerical models to explain and estimate the welfare effects of raising Corporate Average Fuel Economy<CAFE) standards for new passenger vehicles. The analysis encompasses a wide range of scenarios concerning consumers’ valuation of fuel economy and the full economic costs of adopting fuel-saving technologies. It also accounts for, and improves estimates of CAFE's impact on externalities from local and global pollution, oil dependence, traffic congestion and accidents. The bottom line is that it is difficult to make an airtight case either for or against tightening CAFE on pure efficiency grounds, as the magnitude and direction of the welfare change varies across different, plausible scenarios.
The Efficiency and Robustness of Allowance Banking in the U.S. Acid Rain Program
Authors: Ellerman A.Denny , Montero Juan-Pablo
Published: May 2011

This paper provides an empirical evaluation of the efficiency of allowance banking in the nationwide market for sulfur dioxide (SO2) emission allowances that was created by the U.S. Acid Rain Program. We develop a model of efficient banking, select appropriate parameter values, and evaluate the efficiency of observed temporal pattern of abatement based on aggregate data from the first eight years of the Acid Rain Program. Contrary to the general opinion that banking in this program has been excessive, we find that it has been reasonably efficient. We also identify the erroneous assumptions underlying the earlier view and the conditions required for efficient banking to exist independently of changes in the counterfactual, an attribute we call robustness. These results show that firms use banking provisions in a rational and predictable way and that, at least in the US Acid Rain Program, there is no support for the often expressed concern that banked permits will be used all at once to create emissions spikes.
A Quantitative Analysis of the Relationship Between Congestion and Reliability in Electric Power Networks
Authors: Blumsack Seth , Lave Lester B. , Ilic Marija
Published: May 2011

Restructuring efforts in the U.S. electric power sector have tried to encourage transmission investment by independent (non-utility) transmission companies, and have promoted various levels of market-based transmission investment. Underlying this shift to “merchant” transmission investment is an assumption that new transmission infrastructure can be classified as providing a congestion-relief benefit or a reliability benefit. In this paper, we demonstrate that this assumption is largely incorrect for meshed interconnections such as electric power networks. We focus on a particular network topology known as the Wheatstone network to show how congestion and reliability can represent tradeoffs. Lines that cause congestion may be justified on reliability grounds. We decompose the congestion and reliability effects of a given network alteration, and demonstrate their dependence through simulations on a 118-bus test network. The true relationship between congestion and reliability depends critically on identifying the relevant range of demand for evaluating any network externalities.
Carbon Capture Retrofits and the Cost of Regulatory Uncertainty
Authors: Reinelt Peter S. , Keith David W.
Published: May 2011

Power generation firms confront impending replacement of an aging coal-fired fleet in a business environment characterized by volatile natural gas prices and uncertain carbon regulation. We develop a stochastic dynamic programming model of firm investment decisions that minimizes the expected present value of future power generation costs under uncertain natural gas and carbon prices. We explore the implications of regulatory uncertainty on generation technology choice and the optimal timing of investment, and assess the implications of these choices for regulators. We find that interaction of regulatory uncertainty with irreversible investment always raises the social cost of carbon abatement. Further, the social cost of regulatory uncertainty is strongly dependent on the relative competitiveness of IGCC plants, for which the cost of later carbon capture retrofits is comparatively small, and on the firm’s ability to use investments in natural gas generation as a transitional strategy to manage carbon regulation uncertainty. Without highly competitive IGCC or low gas prices, regulatory uncertainty can increase the expected social cost of reducing emissions by 40 to 60%.
Technology Treaties and Fossil-Fuels Extraction
Authors: Strand Jon
Published: May 2011

We consider some unintended effects of a “technology treaty” to increase the (stochastic) possibility of developing an energy alternative to fossil fuels which, when available, makes fossil fuels redundant. One implication of such a treaty is to increase the incentives for fossil-fuels producers to extract fossil fuels existing in given quantity more rapidly, under competition when the equilibrium price path for fossil fuels follows Hotelling’s rule. When the treaty may result in the new technology being immediately available, the expected resource extraction path is accelerated for an initial period, in simulations for 510 years, despite fossil fuels being phased out when the new technology appears. When there is a minimum (10-year) lag from treaty signing to technology implementation, expected extraction is speeded up for a longer period, 12-15 years. We discuss the implications of such treaties for global carbon emissions, which are not necessarily positive.
Vehicle Ownership and Income Growth, Worldwide: 1960-2030
Authors: Dargay Joyce , Gately Dermot , Sommer Martin
Published: May 2011

The speed of vehicle ownership expansion in emerging market and developing countries has important implications for transport and environmental policies, as well as the global oil market. The literature remains divided on the issue of whether the vehicle ownership rates will ever catch up to the levels common in the advanced economies. This paper contributes to the debate by building a model that explicitly models the vehicle saturation level as a function of observable country characteristics: urbanization and population density. Our model is estimated on the basis of pooled time-series (1960-2002) and crosssection data for 45 countries that include 75 percent of the world’s population. We project that the total vehicle stock will increase from about 800 million in 2002 to more than two billion units in 2030. By this time, 56% of the world’s vehicles will be owned by non-OECD countries, compared with 24% in 2002. In particular, China’s vehicle stock will increase nearly twenty-fold, to 390 million in 2030. This fast speed of vehicle ownership expansion implies rapid growth in oil demand.
Household Energy Demand and the Equity and Efficiency Aspects of Subsidy Reform in Indonesia
Authors: Olivia Susan , Gibson John
Published: May 2011

The proper design of price interventions in energy markets requires consideration of equity and efficiency effects. In this paper, budget survey data from 29,000 Indonesian households are used to estimate a demand system for five energy sources, which is identified by the spatial variation in unit values (expenditures divided by quantities). We correct for the various quality and measurement error biases that result when unit values are used as proxies for market prices. The price elasticities are combined with tax and subsidy rates to calculate the marginal social cost of price changes for each item. The results suggest that even with high levels of inequality aversion there is a case for reducing the large subsidies on kerosene in Indonesia, supporting the reforms that have been announced recently.
Oil Risk in Oil Stocks
Authors: Scholtens Bert , Wang Lei
Published: May 2011

We assess the oil price sensitivities and oil risk premiums of NYSE listed oil & gas firms’ returns by using a two-step regression analysis under two different arbitrage pricing models. Thus, we apply the Fama and French (1992) factor returns in a study of oil stocks. In all, we find that the return of oil stocks is positively associated with the return of the market, the increase of the spot crude oil price, and negatively with the firm’s book-to-market ratio. The oil firms’ sensitivities to the market, the oil price and the book-to-market ratio are positively priced by the market under the integrated model. However, both the size and significance of the oil risk premium are unstable. This suggests that increases in the oil price impact on expectations about the oil stocks’ future return. The positive oil risk premium may disappear as investors change their perception of the effect of oil price changes on stock returns.
Modelling the Health Related Benefits of Environmental Policies and Their Feedback Effects: A CGE Analysis for the EU Countries with GEM-E3
Authors: Mayeres Inge , Regemorter Denise Van
Published: May 2011

A number of recent studies on taxation in the presence of externalities in a second-best framework consider the implications of taking into account the feedback effects of environmental quality. This paper explores by means of GEM-E3, a computable general equilibrium model for the EU countries, the importance of the feedback effects of the health related benefits from an environmental policy. The modelling framework implemented in GEM-E3 allows for three channels through which the feedback can occur: a decrease in medical expenditure, an increase in the consumers’ available time and an increase of labour productivity in the production sectors. The results show that the explicit modelling of the health related effect of air pollution on consumers and producers allows for a more precise evaluation of the impact of environmental policies on private consumption and employment. Relative to the included benefits the feedback effects are large. However, in terms of global effect, the impacts of the feedback are small, compared to the standard GEM-E3 model where the health related benefits are evaluated ex-post.
The Impact of Climate Policies on the Operation of a Thermal Power Plant
Authors: Rosnes Orvika
Published: May 2011

Climate policy measures aimed at power markets influence the cost structure of producers and price patterns, and are therefore likely to influence the production decision of power plants, even in the short run. When power plants have costs related to starting and stopping, decisions on short-term production are intertemporal, and the conventional ‘price vs. marginal cost’ rule is not sufficient to predict production in thermal power plants. This paper analyzes how the optimal production decision is influenced by climate policies: namely, CO2 trading mechanisms, the expansion of renewables and the interaction between these policies.

The main result is that higher power price variation (as a result of increased wind power production) makes the thermal power producer less flexible, but the effect on emissions is ambiguous. A CO2 cost (as a result of an emission trading system) increases the flexibility of the producer and the operation decision resembles the conventional ‘price vs. marginal cost’ rule more. This implies lower emissions. However, when the CO2 price is coupled with higher power price variation, the positive effects may be reversed since the two policies have opposing effects.
Estimating Plant Level Energy Efficiency with a Stochastic Frontier
Authors: Boyd Gale A.
Published: May 2011

A common distinguishing feature of engineering models is that they explicitly represent best practice technologies, while parametric/statistical models represent average practice. It is more useful to energy management or goal setting to have a measure of energy performance capable of answering the question, “How close is observed performance from the industry best practice?” This paper presents a parametric/statistical approach to measure best practice. The results show how well a plant performs relative to the industry. A stochastic frontier regression analysis is used to model plant level energy use, separating energy into systematic effects, inefficiency, and random error. One advantage is that physical product mix can be included, avoiding the problem of aggregating output to define a single energy/output ratio to measure energy intensity. The paper outlines the methods and gives an example of the analysis conducted for a non-public micro-dataset of wet corn milling plants.
Pollution and the Price of Power
Authors: Dewees Donald N.
Published: May 2011

This study analyses the un-priced environmental harm caused by generating electricity from fossil fuels in the ECAR control region south of the Great Lakes in 2004 and again in 2015 when the recent Clean Air Interstate Rule will have its full effect. Using existing damage values, we estimate wholesale electricity under-pricing for coal-fired plants at about $40 per MWh in 2004, almost as much again as the $45/MWh actual price. Averaging across all fuels, the price of electricity was more than $30/MWh too low. The under-pricing will still be $18/MWh for coal plants and $15 for all generation sources in 2015, a decade after CAIR was adopted. Recognizing this environmental price now could reduce pollution levels, increase energy conservation and lead to wiser choices of new generation technology.
An Empirical Analysis of Energy Intensity and Its Determinants at the State Level
Authors: Metcalf Gilbert E.
Published: May 2011

Aggregate energy intensity in the United States has been declining steadily since the mid-1970s and the first oil shock. Energy intensity can be reduced by improving efficiency in the use of energy or by moving away from energy-intensive activities. At the national level, I show that roughly three-quarters of the improvements in U.S. energy intensity since 1970 results from efficiency improvements. This should reduce concerns that the United States is off-shoring its carbon emissions.

A state-level analysis shows that rising per capita income and higher energy prices have played an important part in lowering energy intensity. Price and income predominantly influence intensity through changes in energy efficiency rather than through changes in economic activity. In addition, the empirical analysis suggests that little policy intervention will be needed to achieve the Bush Administration goal of an 18 percent reduction in carbon intensity by the end of this decade.
Natural Gas Demand in the European Household Sector
Authors: Asche Frank , Nilsen OddBjarte , Tveteras Ragnar
Published: May 2011

This paper analyzes the residential natural gas demand in 12 European countries using a dynamic demand model, which allows for country-specific short- and long-run elasticity estimates. The own-price and income elasticities tend to be very inelastic in the short run, albeit with much greater responsiveness in the longer run. Our results support very limited technological substitution possibilities between different energy carriers in the short run. Furthermore, the results suggested structural differences of residential natural gas demand across European countries and provide support for employing a heterogeneous estimator such as the shrinkage estimator.
Carbon Tax or Carbon Permits: The Impact on Generators’ Risks
Authors: Green Richard
Published: May 2011

Volatile fuel prices affect both the cost and price of electricity in a liberalized market. Generators with the price-setting technology will face less risk to their profit margins than those with costs that are not correlated with price, even if those costs are not volatile. Emissions permit prices may respond to relative fuel prices, further increasing volatility. This paper simulates the impact of this on generators’ profits, comparing an emissions trading scheme and a carbon tax against predictions for the UK in 2020. The carbon tax reduces the volatility faced by nuclear generators, but raises that faced by fossil fuel stations. Optimal portfolios would contain a higher proportion of nuclear plant if a carbon tax was adopted.
Randomly Modulated Periodic Signals in Australia’s National Electricity Market
Authors: Foster John , Hinich Melvin J. , Wild Phillip
Published: May 2011

In this article, we use half hourly spot electricity prices and load data for the National Electricity Market (NEM) of Australia for the period from December 1998 to August 2007 to test for randomly modulated periodicity. In doing so, we apply signal coherence spectral analysis to the time series of half hourly spot prices and megawatt-hours (MWh) load demand from 7/12/1998 to 31/08/2007 using the FORTRAN 95 program developed by Hinich (2000). We detect relatively steady weekly and daily cycles in load demand but relatively more unstable cycles in prices.
Learning-by-Doing and the Optimal Solar Policy in California
Authors: Benthem Arthur van , Gillingham Kenneth , Sweeney James
Published: May 2011

Much policy attention has been given to promote fledgling energy technologies that promise to reduce our reliance onfossilfuels. These policies often aim to correct market failures, such as environmental externalities and learning-by-doing (LBD). We examine the implications of the assumption that LBD exists, quantifying the market failure due to LBD. We develop a model of technological advancement based on LBD and environmental market failures to examine the economically efficient level of subsidies in California’s solar photovoltaic market. Under central-case parameter estimates, including nonappropriable LBD, we find that maximizing net social benefits implies a solar subsidy schedule similar in magnitude to the recently implemented California Solar Initiative. This result holds for a wide range of LBD parameters. However, with no LBD, the subsidies cannot be justified by the environmental externality alone.
Technological Modifications in the Nitrogen Oxides Tradable Permit Program
Authors: Linn Joshua
Published: May 2011

Tradable permit programs allow firms greater flexibility in reducing emissions than command-and-control regulations and encourage firms to use low cost abatement options, including small-scale modifications to capital equipment. This paper shows that firms have extensively modified capital equipment in the Nitrogen Oxides Budget Trading Program, which covers power plants in the eastern United States. The empirical strategy uses geographic and temporal features of the program to estimate counterfactual emissions, finding that modifications have reduced emission rates by approximately 10-15 percent. The modifications would not have occurred under command-and-control regulation and have reduced regulatory costs.
Factors Affecting an Economy’s Tolerance and Delay of Response to the Impact of a Positive Oil Price Shock
Authors: Huang Bwo-Nung
Published: May 2011

This paper applies a multivariate threshold model to estimate a country’s threshold level of economic tolerance (c) and delay of response (d) to the impact of a positive price change and its shock. Regression analysis is employed to investigate the factors affecting c and d. We find: (1) as a country becomes more advanced in economic development and acquires a lower ratio of energy use in its industry and transportation sectors, the threshold of tolerance is greater as evidenced by the positive impact of an oil price change and its shock; (2) if a country has a lower ratio of energy use in the industry sector, a lower energy import ratio and is more advanced in economic development, it will have a longer delay; and (3) as an economy becomes more advanced, the length of the response time from the impact of the shock of an oil price change will be longer.
High Frequency Export and Price Responses in the Ontario Electricity Market
Authors: Melino Angelo , Peerbocus Nash
Published: May 2011

Export responses to unanticipated price shocks can be a key contributing factor to the rapid mean reversion of electricity prices, a phenomenon often seen in electricity markets. In this paper, we use event analysis to demonstrate how hourly export transactions respond to negative supply shocks in the Ontario electricity market. Although event analysis has been used for many years in other applications, particularly finance, to our knowledge this is the first time that this technique has been applied to price response analysis in the electricity market. The analysis clearly demonstrates the sensitivity of export volume to price changes, and more generally, the responses of prices and quantities to an unexpected supply shock.
Efforts and Efficiency in Oil Exploration: A Vector Error-Correction Approach
Authors: Mohn Klaus
Published: May 2011

High oil prices and gradual resource depletion have raised global concerns for security of energy supply. Successful exploration activity is a critical factor for future oil production. Based on standard neoclassical producer behavior and modern time series econometrics, this study reveals new insights into the process of oil and gas exploration. I find that reserve additions are enhanced by an increase in the oil price, due to responses both in effort and efficiency of exploration. Moreover, oil companies accept higher exploration risk in response to an oil price increase, implying lower success rates and higher expected discovery size.
Threshold Cointegration Analysis of Crude Oil Benchmarks
Authors: Hammoudeh Shawkat M. , Ewing Bradley T. , Thompson Mark A.
Published: May 2011

The paper examines the dynamic relationship between pairs of four oil benchmark prices (i.e., West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Dubai, and Maya), which have different physical properties and locations. The results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between different benchmarks, regardless of their properties and locations. More importantly, there is asymmetry in the adjustment process that is specifically modeled and implications are discussed.