Forecasting changes in the earth’s climate system by instrumental measurements and paleodata in the phase-time region, consistent with changes in the barycentric motions of the sun. Part 1
Authors: Alekseev Valery I. 
Published: October 2024

The relevance of the research is due to the need to establish the root cause of climate change on Earth and predict changes in heliocosmic, climatic variables, natural disasters by intramental measurements and paleodata, as time series, for long intervals of the time horizon in the phase domain, taking into account their cyclicity and interdependence of changes.
Purpose of research: application of the time series analysis method of the time series to establish the strength of the influence of the barycentric movements of the Sun on the variability of heliocosmic, climatic variables, natural disasters and fires, high-precision prediction of variables in the phase-time domain for long horizons of hundreds and thousands of years by instrumental measurements and paleodata.
Objects of research: time series of changes in heliocosmic and climatic variables, natural disasters and fires, curves of changes in climatic changes obtained by analysis of ice cores in Antarctica and bottom sediments in Antarctica.
Methods of research: wavelet phase-frequency and phase-time analysis of images of heliocosmic and climatic variables, natural disasters and fires; calculation of the consistency of changes in selected groups on a set of phase-time characteristics of variables in a sliding mode.
Main results of research: In the images of wavelet phase-time functions of many variables constructed from observations in 1600–2010, Jose periods of ~178 years were found, which are contained in changes in the characteristics of barycentric movements of the Sun, solar activity, solar constant, CO2,N2OEl Nino, solar wind, the level of the Caspian Sea, temperature in Greenland, the speed of rotation of the Earth, snow accumulation rates in the Indian Ocean sector of Antarctica, global temperature; cyclicity of changes in heliocosmic and climatic variables are consistent with changes in Baricentre; there is a significant difference in the consistency of changes in the phase-time characteristics of variables obtained at the southern hot and northern cold latitudes of the planet by about 2.1 times; in the northern part of the planet, changes in variables are more chaotic, due to the different influence of changes in the Baricentre variable, the magnetic fields of the Sun and the Earth on the variability of variables at different latitudes of the planet; significant variability and resonances of the phase characteristics of heliocosmic and climatic variables are observed by changes in Baricentre on the graphs of coordinated changes in groups of variables in the observed and predicted time intervals. The studies reveal multiple oscillatory responses of the Earth’s climate system to the impact of the Baricentre variable due to the heterogeneity of its components and the Earth’s magnetosphere in space. Changes in the set of phase-time characteristics of variables on the same graph in the observed and predicted time intervals in the interval ± π are displayed as changes in autowaves characteristic of self-organizing systems, characterizing climatic changes in environments in combination with the influence of the variable Baricentre.