bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Reproductive patterns and child mortality in guatemala
Authors: Pebley Anne R. , Stupp Paul W.
Published: March 2007

In this paper, we investigate the association of child mortality with maternal age, parity, birth spacing, and socioeconomic status, in a sample of Guatemalan children who were included in a public health intervention program. Our results indicate that maternal age, birth order, and the length of the previous and following birth intervals all have a significant impact on the risk of child mortality and that these associations cannot be accounted for by differences in breastfeeding, socioeconomic status, or the survival status of the previous child.
Constraints to the fulfillment of residential preferences among Texas homebuyers
Authors: Hwang Sean-Shong , Albrecht Don E.
Published: March 2007

A 1983 survey of Texas homebuyers reveals a high degree of mismatch between their preferred and actual residences. Analysis indicates that the logit of fulfilling residential preference is largely determined by the type of area preferred and the occupation and age of the homebuyer. Mismatch is most common among homebuyers preferring a suburban location, less so for those preferring nonmetropolitan residences, and lowest among people preferring central cities. Occupation as a social structural variable also affects homebuyers ’ chance of fulfilling residential preference. Professionals are more likely to fulfill their residential preferences than persons in other occupations. Finally, younger persons suffer a higher degree of residential mismatch than older persons.
Analyzing fertility histories: Do restrictions bias results?
Authors: Rindfuss Ronald R. , Bumpass Larry L. , Palmore James A.
Published: March 2007

The practice of collecting information on only the last closed and the open birth intervals results in a biased set of intervals. Given this bias, can analysis of these intervals provide unbiased estimates of the effects of socioeconomic and proximate variables on birth interval dynamics? Using an unrestricted data set, we examine the determinants of birth interval dynamics on both a set of unbiased intervals and a set of intervals that only include last closed and open intervals. The surprising result is that the biased set of intervals gives unbiased results regarding the structure of the effects of socioeconomic and proximate variables.
Agricultural Opportunity and Marriage: The United States at the Turn of the Century
Authors: Landale Nancy S.
Published: March 2007

This article focuses on the marriage behavior of rural white males in the United States at the turn of the century. The principal goal of the analysis is to assess the role of agricultural opportunity in determining nuptial timing and prevalence. The major issue addressed is whether restricted opportunity in farming retarded entry into marriage. Overall, the findings suggest that rural young men were less likely to enter marriage when local opportunity in agriculture was poor. One mechanism through which the local opportunity structure influenced nuptiality was occupational choice. Young men who entered nonagricultural pursuits or who were employed as farm laborers were far less likely to have married than young men who became farmers.
Children Among the Poor
Authors: Smith James P.
Published: March 2007

This article investigates a number of issues that clarify the premises underlying the assignment of children into poverty. Conventional definitions indicate much larger poverty rates among children than among adults. Three possible theoretical reasons for this greater representation of children among the poor are explored. It is shown that the most direct mechanism—poorer parents having more children—is of little importance. Instead, the greater incidence of poverty among children is the result of (1) a labor supply effect of children’s reducing family income as mothers work less and (2) the assumption of greater household “needs” when children are present. The research presented here also demonstrates that long-term permanent poverty rates among children are much lower than the conventional yearly measures.
Fertility, Employment, and Child-Care Costs
Authors: Blau David M. , Robins Philip K.
Published: March 2007

A sample of labor-market and birth histories is used to estimate the effects of child-care costs on employment and fertility decisions. A reduced-form empirical analysis is performed, which is based on hazard functions for transitions among various fertility–employment states. Higher child-care costs result in a lower birth rate for nonemployed women but not for employed women. Higher child-care costs also lead to an increase in the rate of leaving employment and a reduction in the rate of entering employment. The results suggest that potential behavioral effects of child-care subsidies could be significant and should be taken into account when alternative child-care policies are being debated.
Demographic Cycles, Cohort Size, and Earnings
Authors: Berger Mark C.
Published: March 2007

This article examines whether position in the demographic cycle is an important factor in determining earnings and earnings growth. Earnings equations for white males are estimated by using March Current Population Survey data. Position in the demographic cycle is captured by including both measures of own cohort size and the size of surrounding cohorts in the estimated earnings equations. Position in the demographic cycle matters. Increases in own cohort size lead to flatter earnings profiles, whereas increases in the size of surrounding cohorts are associated with steeper earnings profiles. The net effect is that those who enter the labor market before or after the peak of the demographic cycle start out with lower earnings but experience faster earnings growth. This pattern is uniform across all schooling groups: high school dropouts, high school graduates, those with some college, and college graduates.
Changes in cohort wealth over a generation
Authors: David Martin H. , Menchik Paul L.
Published: March 2007

Empirical computation of expected wealth is hampered by two problems: mortality risks vary in the population and over time; and observation of net estates for most cohorts is truncated, as some individuals in a cohort survive the calendar date on which observation is terminated. These two problems are solved in estimating cohort wealth for a sample of Wisconsin taxpayers. Hazard rate models of differential occupational mortality risks were estimated from the occupational information on the tax records. Values of net estate are simulated for individuals in each birth cohort who survived. Survivors have characteristics that imply greater wealth holdings than the deceased in every birth year covered by the study (1890–1924). Because of this, estimates of wealth-age relationships produced by the estate multiplier method for any given year will have a serious downward bias. Longitudinal data imply that dissaving does not occur after age 65.
Household composition choices of older unmarried women
Authors: Wolf Douglas A. , Soldo Beth J.
Published: March 2007

This article extends previous research on the household composition of older unmarried women, using a statistical model that treats each of a woman’s surviving children as a distinct potential provider of a shared household. Additional possibilities— living alone, living with other nuclear-family relatives, and living with others— are also recognized, providing a varied range of household-structure opportunities for older women. The approach allows us to identify individual child attributes associated with the propensity to coreside with the older unmarried mother. The results confirm earlier findings regarding the importance of income, age, and disability status as determinants of the household composition of older women. We find, however, that unmarried children, especially sons, are more likely to share a household with an elderly mother than are married children. Working reduces the likelihood that a married daughter will live with her older mother. Overall, the findings suggest that the attributes, more so than the sheer numbers, of living children influence the household structure of their mothers.
Multinomial and conditional logit discrete-choice models in demography
Authors: Hoffman Saul D. , Duncan Greg J.
Published: March 2007

Although discrete-choice statistical techniques have been used with increasing regularity in demographic analyses, Mcl’adden’s conditional logit model is less well known and seldom used. Conditional logit models are appropriate when the choice among alternatives is modeled as a function of the characteristics of the alternatives, rather than (or in addition to) the characteristics of the individual making the choice. We argue that this feature of conditionallogit makes it more appropriate for estimating behavioral models. In this article, the conditional logit model is presented and compared with the more familiar multinomial logit model. The difference between the two techniques is illustrated with an analysis of the choice of marital and welfare status by divorced or separated women.
Pregnancy wantedness and the early initiation of prenatal care
Authors: Joyce Theodore J. , Grossman Michael
Published: March 2007

The study examines the impact of the wantedness of a pregnancy on the demand for early prenatal care. Using a cohort of pregnant women in New YorkCity, we estimate a prenatal care demand function in which we control for the probability of giving birth, given a woman is pregnant. We interpret this control as a measure of wantedness, The results indicate that if the black and Hispanic women who aborted had instead given birth, they would have delayed the initiation of prenatal care, on average, more than three-quarters of a month longer than the mean number of months of delay that were actually observed for the women who gave birth. Byallowing women to terminate an unwanted pregnancy, induced abortion increases the average use of prenatal care among black and Hispanic women relative to what would have been observed if the women who aborted had instead given birth.
The growth of families headed by women: 1950–1980
Authors: Wojtkiewicz Roger A. , McLanahan Sara S. , Garfinkel Irwin
Published: March 2007

In recent decades, the number of families headed by women has increased dramatically. In this article, we use U.S. census data from 1950 to 1980 to consider the extent to which population growth, fertility change, decreased marriage, increased divorce, and increased household headship have contributed to the growth of femaleheaded families. For white women, the major source of growth during the 1960s and 1970s was an increase in the number of formerly married mothers due to increased divorce and decreased remarriage. There is a similar pattern for black women for the 1960–1970 period. During the 1970–1980 decade, however, the major source of growth for black women was an increase in the number of never-married mothers due to decreased marriage and increased fertility among nonmarried women.
Mobility and adjustments: Paths to the resolution of residential stress
Authors: Deane Glenn D.
Published: March 2007

In theory, residential mobility is a response to environmental stress only if households do not reduce dissatisfaction through other alternatives, such as housing improvements or repairs. Despite the attention given to stress-reducing alternatives, however, no attempt has been made to test empirically the residential satisfaction model with adjustments. Using data from the Annual Housing Survey: 1978–1981, I model three stages in the mobility process and investigate potential sources of specification error in previous tests. Blocks of family cycle, background/action state, and location/housing variables are shown to affect adjusting significantly. Residential satisfaction strongly affectsmobility preferences; and all theoretically relevant blocks of explanatory variables predict mobility. Alternatives to mobility should be included in the residential satisfaction model.
Determinants of short- and long-term mobility expectations for home owners and renters
Authors: McHugh Kevin E. , Gober Patricia , Reid Neil
Published: March 2007

Confusion about the role of residential satisfaction vis-a-vis structural factors in the mobility process stems from the failure to examine the determinants of mobility over varying time frames and housing tenures. Using survey data for a random sample of 580 Phoenix-area households, we test models of short-term (l year) and long-term (5 years) mobility expectations for home owners and renters. The results show that residential satisfaction mediates the effects of structural variables on mobility expectations in the short term for home owners. In the long-term model for home owners and the short-term model for renters, the role of satisfaction as an intervening force declines in relative importance. Among renters, structural variables operate directly on long-term mobility expectations.
Effects of agricultural development policies on migration in peninsular Malaysia
Authors: Baydar Nazli , White Michael J. , Simkins Charles , Babakol Ozer
Published: March 2007

State planning plays a central role in Malaysia’s social and economic development. The government’s rural development policies are designed to promote agricultural incomes and help counterbalance ethnic inequalities. The Federal Land Development Authority (FELDA) implements one of the internationally most successful land development and resettlement programs. In this article, we quantify the impact of FELDA settlements on local out-migration rates, linking macro and micro approaches and using data from the Malaysian Family Life Survey, national censuses, and other sources. A model of instantaneous migration rates specifies an individual’s migration rate as a function of individual-level sociodemographic characteristics, the level of urbanization of the origin and destination, and the extent of rural development at the district of current residence. Our results show that in the late 1960s and early 1970s, the existence of rural development centers in a district reduced the levels of outmigration to pre-1965 levels.
Simplified birth rate estimates under nonstable conditions
Authors: Venkatacharya K.
Published: March 2007

Coale’s robust birth rate estimate, obtained by adjusting the birth rate of a stable population selected by matching the observed population of both sexes under the age of 15, C(15), and the probability of survival of births to age 5, l5, is shown to be equal to the birth rate obtainable by reverse surviving the proportion under the age of 15. Variations of matching the criterion of Coale’s method to the rate of increase and C(l5) or l5 are shown to lead to variants of Coale’s birth rate estimate that are also nearly equal to the reverse survival birth rate based on C(15). A simplified birth rate estimate that does not require reference to models of life tables or stable populations is suggested and some of its applications are illustrated.
Rural-to-Urban migration and child survival in Senegal
Authors: Brockerhoff Martin
Published: March 2007

Analysis of the 1986 Senegal Demographic and Health Survey reveals that mothers may be able to improve their children’s survival chances by migrating from the countryside to the city. Children of urban migrants, however, continue to experience a much higher risk of mortality before the age of 5 than children of urban nonmigrants, even after the mother has lived in the city for several years. This migrant mortality disadvantage persists when controlling for numerous socioeconomic and fertility-related factors typically associated with child mortality in developing countries, which also serve as indicators of migrant selection and adaptation.
Alternative Projections of the U.S. population
Authors: Ahlburg Dennis A. , Vaupel James W.
Published: March 2007

The U. S. Bureau of the Census recently released a set of population projections that include middle and high projections that we argue are too conservative. The projections discount the possibility of future baby booms and assume slow rates of mortality decline and low levels of immigration. In this article we explore the impact on the size and age composition of the U. S. population of alternative scenarios of plausible fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions. We conclude that (I) the Census Bureau’s highest projection might be interpreted as a reasonable middle projection, (2) a reasonable high projection would yield a U.S. population in 2080 some 300 million persons larger than the Bureau’s highest projection, with the population 85 and older more than twice the Bureau’s greatest estimate, and (3) uncertainty about the pace of population growth is substantially greater than the Bureau’s projections suggest.
Child care arrangements and fertility: An analysis of two-earner households
Authors: Lehrer Evelyn L. , Kawasaki Seiichi
Published: March 2007

The determinants of child care arrangements and relations between child care and fertility are examined using data on two-earner households from the 1976 National Survey of Family Growth. We find that the probability of relying on market arrangements is higher among families in which the husband’s income, the wife’s wage, and the level of the wife’s labor supply are high; these households are likely to benefit the most from subsidies to the market forms of care that are small relative to the total cost of care (e.g. the present system of tax credits). In addition, parental education, family size, child’s age, race, religion, and place of residence have important influences on the choice of child care mode. When other factors are held constant, reliance on a relative for child care is positively associated with intentions to have further children among couples with infants and preschoolers.
Entry into marriage and parenthood by young men and women: The influence of family background
Authors: Michael Robert T. , Tuma Nancy Brandon
Published: March 2007

We investigate the influence of family background on early entry into marriage and parenthood among white, Hispanic, and black men and women ages 14 to 22 in the first (1979) wave of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Family background is highly associated with early entry into marriage for whites of both genders and female Hispanics and also with early entry into parenthood for all groups except black males. Large group differences in family characteristics explain most of the difference between white and Hispanic women in early marriage and parenthood and about half the difference in early parenthood between black and white women but do not explain the observed variations among other race-gender groups.
Rural-urban mobility in Thailand: A decision-making approach
Authors: Fuller Theodore D. , Lightfoot Paul , Kamnuansilpa Peerasit
Published: March 2007

An individual behavioral model of the decision-making process for rural-urban mobility is applied to longitudinal data from an area of Northeast Thailand where circular rural-urban movement dominates. The individual-level variables included in the model are: recent mobility history, urban social contacts, information about urban areas, evaluations of various locations, migration plans, and actual movements in the period subsequent to an initial interview. The empirical results provide relatively strong support for the model. From the standpoint of intervention, information appears to be a key variable in the mobility process.
Racial concentration and segregation across U.S. counties, 1950–1980
Authors: Lichter Daniel T.
Published: March 2007

By presenting race-specific population concentration indexes for U.S. counties for the 1950–1980 period, this paper updates and extends previous analyses of 19001974 patterns of population concentration by Duncan et al. (1961) and Vining and Strauss (1977). Declines in population concentration persisted through 1980 only among the white population. Blacks continued to experience increases in population concentration between 1970 and 1980. These racially divergent patterns of concentration in the 1970s have translated into increases in segregation between blacks and whites across U.S. counties.
Measuring the impact of locational characteristics on migration: Interpreting cross-sectional analyses
Authors: Mueser Peter R.
Published: March 2007

Methods that employ cross-sectional data to analyze the impact of locational characteristics on migration decisions may produce seriously biased results because migrant decisions at any one point in time reflect historical as well as contemporaneous forces. A comparison of results based on a typical cross-sectional analysis and those obtained with longitudinal data shows that these issues are of empirical importance. An alternative interpretation of the results of cross-sectional migration analyses is provided.
The multilevel dependence of contraceptive use on socioeconomic development and family planning program strength
Authors: Entwisle Barbara , Mason William M. , Hermalin Albert I.
Published: March 2007

Using World Fertility Survey data for 15 developing countries, we estimate an equation in which the dependent variable—whether the respondent has ever used an efficient contraceptive method—depends on the respondent’s education and location of childhood residence. All of the coefficients of this equation, including the intercept, vary over countries. Analysis based on new methodology shows that the intercept and education effects vary as a function of national family planning program efforts and that none of the parameters of the equation depend on gross national product per capita. The results demonstrate the efficacy of multilevel analysis, provide a partial test of the theory underlying the analysis, and refocus discussion of the contributions of development and policy variables to fertility reduction.
A new look at entropy and the life table
Authors: Goldman Noreen , Lord Graham
Published: March 2007

The mathematical derivations described in this paper offer a new look at the entropy of the life table, denoted by H. Contrary to previous claims, it is theoretically possible, and has been observed empirically, for life tables to have entropy values greater than unity. A re-expression of H as a weighted average of life expectancy at different ages relative to life expectancy at birth demonstrates clearly the conditions under which reductions in mortality by a fixed amount at all ages can result in even greater gains in life expectancy.
Frequency of geographic mobility: Findings from the National Health Interview Survey
Authors: Tucker C. Jack , Urton William L.
Published: March 2007

Migration data from supplements to the 1979 and 1980 National Health Interview Survey are analyzed in terms of repeat mobility over three-year intervals. Frequency of mobility is strongly related to age; whites move more frequently than blacks; males move only slightly more frequently than females. Interstate migrants reported more moves over the three-year migration interval than did intrastate migrants; local movers were less prone to make multiple moves.
Fertility estimation from retrospective surveys: Biases attributable to pregnancy-related movement of mothers
Authors: Srinivasan K. , Muthiah A. C.
Published: March 2007

In a number of developing countries, especially in South Asia, there is a custom for a pregnant woman to go to her mother’s home for delivery and remain for some months afterwards. In this context, estimates of various fertility measures, based on data from a sample survey of resident women, will be seriously biased. Inclusion of data for visitors to the sample households does not fully compensate for this bias. The presence and magnitude of the bias is illustrated by the analysis of data from large-scale sample surveys conducted in the state of Orissa in India and by World Fertility Survey data from Bangladesh and Nepal.
Sexual activity among never-married men in northern Thailand
Authors: VanLandingham Mark J. , Suprasert Somboon , Sittitrai Werasit , Vaddhanaphuti Chayan , Grandjean Nancy
Published: March 2007

We use data collected in 1991 to investigate sexual activity among never-married men in Thailand, with a focus on age at first intercourse, characteristics of sexual partners, and conditions under which men visit prostitutes. We sampled men from a broad spectrum of northern Thai society, including university undergraduates, soldiers, and semiskilled/unskilled workers. We found that except for the students, the majority of each subsample is sexually experienced; prostitutes are the most common type of sexual partner for all groups. Alcohol consumption is associated with several measures of sexual activity. Condom use with prostitutes varies among the subsamples. Among men who have both prostitute and nonprostitute partners, the majority of those who do not use condoms with prostitutes also do not use condoms with their nonprostitute partners. We consider the implications of these results for the AIDS epidemic in Thailand.
Nutrition, lactation, and birth spacing in filipino women
Authors: Popkin Barry M. , Guilkey David K. , Akin John S. , Adair Linda S. , Richard Udry J. , Flieger Wilhelm
Published: March 2007

The Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey is used to examine the roles of women’s nutrition and infant feeding in determining time from birth to menses and time from menses to conception. The analysis sample includes 2,648 Filipino women followed for 24 months postpartum. Recently devised statistical estimation techniques to control for unobserved heterogeneity and endogeneity are employed in estimating a two-state hazard model. Low body mass index and lower dietary fat intake are associated with increased duration of postpartum amenorrhea. Contraceptive use, high dietary fat consumption, higher parity, and absence of spouse predict a longer waiting time to conception once menses have returned. Simulation of the hazard model is used to examine the effects of the key nutrition and lactation factors.
The economic costs of marital disruption for Young Women over the past two decades
Authors: Smock Pamela J.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the economic costs of separation and divorce for young women in the United States from the late 1960s through the late 1980s. Broadened opportunities for women outside marriage may have alleviated some of the severe economic costs of marital disruption for women. This paper contrasts the experiences of two cohorts of young women: those who married and separated or divorced in the late 1960s through the mid-1970s and those who experienced these events in the 1980s. Based on panel data from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Youth 1979–1988, Young Women 1968–1978, and Young Men 1966–1978, the results show stability in the costs of disruption. A multivariate analysis shows that young women in the more recent cohort have more labor force experience before disruption than those in the earlier cohort, but prior work history does not protect women from the severe costs of marital disruption.
Measuring the effect of changing legislation on the frequency of divorce: The Netherlands, 1830–1990
Authors: van Poppel Frans , de Beer Joop
Published: March 2007

This article discusses different procedures for measuring the effects of judicial changes on divorce rates. It presents an alternative model and applies it to a historical time series for the Netherlands. In this model, intervention variables were added to a statistical time-series (ARIMA) model. The conclusion of our analysis was that the effects of three judicial changes were only temporary.
Race, intervening variables, and two components of low birth weight
Authors: Kallan Jeffrey E.
Published: March 2007

The low birth weight (LBW) gap between blacks and whites has remained largely unexplained in past research. Most previous research on the topic has focused on LBW as a single entity, and without using a causal framework for. analysis. The present study examines the determinants of race differences in the two main components of LBW—preterm birth (PRETERM) and intrauterine growth retardation (IUGR)—within a partially causal framework that includes social and proximate explanatory variables. The data come from the 1988 National Survey of Family Growth. This study asks, first, through what intervening variables do race and other exogenous sociodemographic variables operate to raise the risk of these adverse pregnancy outcomes? Second, what are the determinants of the two components of LBW when all explanatory variables are included in the model? The findings reveal differences in how race (and other exogenous variables) act through downstream variables to affect PRETERM and IUGR, as well as differences in the net determinants of these pregnancy outcomes. The models are better able to account statistically for race differences in IUGR (which is explained by intervening sociodemographic, attitude, and behavior variables) than in PRETERM (which is explained partly by intervening health variables).
Ever since gompertz
Authors: Olshansky S. Jay , Carnes Bruce A.
Published: March 2007

In 1825 British actuary Benjamin Gompertz made a simple but important observation that a law of geometrical progression pervades large portions of different tables of mortality for humans. The simple formula he derived describing the exponential rise in death rates between sexual maturity and old age is commonly referred to as the Gompertz equation—a formula that remains a valuable tool in demography and in other scientific disciplines. Gompertz’s observation of a mathematical regularity in the life table led him to believe in the presence of a law of mortality that explained why common age patterns of death exist. This law of mortality has captured the attention of scientists for the past 170 years because it was the first among what are now several reliable empirical tools for describing the dying-out process of many living organisms during a significant portion of their life spans. In this paper we review the literature on Gompertz’slaw of mortality and discuss the importance of his observations and insights in light of research on aging that has taken place since then.
A theory of technophysio evolution, with some implications for forecasting population, health care costs, and pension costs
Authors: Fogel Robert W. , Costa Dora L.
Published: March 2007

We argue that over the past 300 years human physiology has been undergoing profound environmentally induced changes made possible by numerous advances in technology. These changes, which we call technophysio evolution, increased body size by over 50%, and greatly improved the robustness and capacity of vital organ systems. Because technophysio evolution is still ongoing, it is relevant to forecasts of longevity and morbidity and, therefore, to forecasts of the size of the elderly population and pension and health care costs.
Motives for intergenerational transfers: Evidence from Malaysia
Authors: Lillard Lee A. , Willis Robert J.
Published: March 2007

In this paper we discuss a number of hypotheses about motives for intergenerational transfers within the family. We use data on time and money transfers between generations in Malaysia, where there is neither Social Security nor Medicare, to explore these hypotheses empirically. We find evidence supporting the hypotheses that children are an important source of old age security and that old age security is, in part, children s repayment for parental investments in their education. This repayment is partly a function of the children’s in come and, in the case of females, a function of their spouse’s in come. We also find evidence supporting the hypotheses that parents and children engage in the exchange of time help for money.
Demographic and economic correlates of health in old age
Authors: Smith James P. , Kington Raynard
Published: March 2007

In this paper we examine disparities in the ability to function among older Americans. We place special emphasis on two goals: (I) understanding the quantitatively large socioeconomic status-health gradient, and (2) the persistence in health outcomes over long periods. We find that there exist strong contemporaneous and long-run feedbacks from health to economic status. In light of these feedbacks, it is important to distinguish among alternative sources of income and the recipient of income in the household. This research also demonstrates that health outcomes at old age are influenced by health attributes of past, concurrent, and future generations of relatives. Finally, we find that the demographic and economic differences that exist among them explain functional health disparities by race and ethnicity, but not by gender.
Trade-offs in the Family: Sibling Effects on Daughters’ Activities in 1910
Authors: Sassler Sharon
Published: March 2007

This paper uses the 1910 Census Public Use Sample to examine how the presence and activities of key family members shaped the labor force activity, domestic work, and schooling of working-age daughters. There is no evidence that daughters worked to send their brothers to school; parents practiced a more egalitarian distribution of resources than the literature suggests. Having brothers and sisters in school increased a daughter’s odds of attending school herself. Similarly, daughters with employed siblings were more likely to be gainfully employed. Nonetheless, parents allocated activities to sons and daughters in ways that reinforced traditional gender roles. Working brothers increase daughters’ likelihood of working in the home, while reducing their odds of attending school.
Parental Divorce in Childhood and Demographic Outcomes in Young Adulthood
Authors: Cherlin Andrew J. , Kiernan Kathleen E. , Chase-Lansdale P. Lindsay
Published: March 2007

We investigated the long-term effects of parental divorce in childhood on demographic outcomes in young adulthood, using a British longitudinal national survey of children. Our analyses control for predisruption characteristics of the child and the family, including emotional problems, cognitive’ achievement, and socioeconomic status. The results show that by age 23, those whose parents divorced were more likely to leave home because of friction, to cohabit, and to have a child outside marriage than were those whose parents did not divorce. Young adults whose parents divorced, however, were no more or less likely to marry or to have a child in a marriage. Moreover, even in the divorced group, the great majority did not leave home because of friction or have a child outside marriage.
The Changing Character of Stepfamilies: Implications of Cohabitation and Nonmarital Childbearing
Authors: Bumpass Larry L. , Raley R. Kelly , Sweet James A.
Published: March 2007

Divorce, nonmarital childbearing, and cohabitation are reshaping family experience in the United States. Because of these changes, our traditional definitions of families decreasingly capture the social units of interest. We have noted how a significant proportion of officially defined single-parent families actually are two-parent unmarried families. The present paper expands on this perspective with respect to stepfamilies. We must broaden our definition of stepfamilies to include cohabitations involving a child of only one partner, and must recognize the large role of nonmarital childbearing in the creation of stepfamilies. We find that cohabitation and nonmarital childbearing have been important aspects of stepfamily experience for at least two decades, and that this is increasingly so. To define stepfamilies only in terms of marriage clearly underestimates both the level and the trend in stepfamily experience: when cohabitation is taken into account, about two-fifths of all women and 30% of all children are likely to spend some time in a stepfamily.
Interpolating Demography with Families and Households
Authors: Goldscheider Frances K.
Published: March 2007

This paper argues that the field of household and family demography serves a critical role in the development of our understanding of the determinants and consequences of population trends. Like the community, families and households are situated between the two levels at which demographic research is ordinarily conducted — the individual and the nation-state. The results of the papers in this issue are used to illustrate the critical ways that intergenerational and gender relationships shape demographic processes.
The determinants of the duration of contraceptive use in China: A multilevel multinomial discrete-hazards modeling approach
Authors: Steele Fiona , Diamond Ian , Wang Duolao
Published: March 2007

Often in demography, individuals may change state over time for a variety of reasons. Competing-risks hazards models have been developed to model such situations. This paper describes the extension of the discrete-time competing-risks hazards model to a multilevel framework that allows for data at different levels of aggregation. The model is illustrated with data from the 1988 Chinese National Survey of Fertility and Contraceptive Prevalence, which collected complete contraceptive histories. Women may stop using a method of contraception for a number of reasons; this paper describes how one can control for correlations between the outcomes of repeated spells of contraceptive use.
Economic incentives for financial and residential independence
Authors: Whittington Leslie A. , Elizabeth Peters H.
Published: March 2007

In this paper we examine the impact of the resources of children and of their parents on the children’s transition to residential and financial independence. Previous studies of this transition focused primarily on the impact of family structure and parent-child relationships on the decision to leave home, but much less is known about the role of economic factors in the transition to independence. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) for the period 1968–1988, we estimate discrete-hazard models of the probability of achieving residential and financial independence. We find that the child’s wage opportunities and the parents’ income are important determinants of establishing independence. The effect of parental income changes with the child’s age. We also find some evidence that federal tax policy influences the decision to become independent, although the magnitude of this effect is quite small.
Immigrants, visible minorities, and self-employment
Authors: Maxim Paul S.
Published: March 2007

Historically, self-employment was perceived as a mechanism whereby immigrants could circumvent discriminatory practices in wage labor. More recent research by Borjas in the United States, however, suggests that this view is incorrect. Immigrants, particularly members of visible minorities, are disadvantaged in both the wage labor and the self-employed markets. This pattern has not been replicated in Canada, however; after controlling for several socioeconomic attributes, it is found that foreign-born, self-employed visible minority-group members are not at a disadvantage in relation to the majority population. Foreign-born visible minority group members earn less, however, in the wage labor force. In contrast, it was found that there is no statistically significant difference between native-born visible minority group members and others in the wage labor force, and that native-born, self-employed minority-group members may earn more than others in that market segment.
Marriage markets and nonmarital fertility in the United States
Authors: South Scott J. , Lloyd Kim M.
Published: March 2007

We merge census microdata with vital statistics data to examine the effect of women’s marriage opportunities on nonmarital fertility rates and ratios across 75 U.S. metropolitan areas. Measures of the quantity and “quality” of marriageable men simultaneously specific for women’s age, race, education, and place of residence reveal especially poor marriage prospects for highly educated black women. The effect of mate availability on nonmarital fertility is generally modest. Among white women, marriage opportunities are associated inversely with the nonmarital fertility rate, perhaps reflecting an increased likelihood that a premarital conception will be legitimated. Marriage opportunities also reduce nonmarital fertility ratios for young black and white women. The nonmarital fertility rate is lower among women whose marriage pool includes a large percentage of nonemployed males. Only a small proportion of the racial difference in nonmarital fertility appears attributable to differences in the marriage markets of black and of white women.
Personality traits and developmental experiences as antecedents of childbearing motivation
Authors: Miller Warren B.
Published: March 2007

Childbearing motivation may be conceptualized as based upon psychological traits and shaped by experiences during childhood, adolescence, and early adult life. This paper explores what those traits and developmental experiences are. Two measures of childbearing motivation, one positive and the other negative, are described. Using a sample of 362 married men and 354 married women, the paper systematically examines the factors associated with these measures. In addition to a set of basic personality traits, these factors include parental characteristics, teenage experiences, and a number of variables from young adult behavior domains such as marriage, education, work, religion, and parental relationships. Stepwise multiple regression analyses lead to two final constrained, simultaneous-equation regression models. These models indicate the importance of both personality traits and diverse life-cycle experiences in the development of childbearing motivation, the differential gender distribution of predictors, and the different experiential antecedents of positive and negative motivation
Living and dying in the U.S.A.: Sociodemographic determinants of death among blacks and whites
Authors: Rogers Richard G.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the demographic and social factors associated with differences in length of life by race. The results demonstrate that sociodemographic factors—age, sex, marital status, family size, and income—profoundly affect black and white mortality. Indeed, the racial gap in overall mortality could close completely with increased standards of living and improved lifestyles. Moreover, examining cause-specific mortality while adjusting for social factors shows that compared to whites, blacks have a lower mortality risk from respiratory diseases, accidents. and suicide; the same risk from circulatory diseases and cancer; and higher risks from infectious diseases, homicide, and diabetes. These results underscore the importance of examining social characteristics to understand more clearly the race differences in overall and cause-specific mortality.
Birth spacing and child mortality in bangladesh and the Philippines
Authors: Miller Jane E. , Trussell James , Pebley Anne R. , Vaughan Barbara
Published: March 2007

This analysis uses data from Bangladesh and the Philippines to demonstrate that children who are born within 15 months of a preceding birth are 60 to 80% more likely than other children to die in the first two years of life, once the confounding effects of prematurity are removed. The risks associated with short conception intervals are confined to children who are also high birth order; they persist in the presence of controls for prior familial child mortality, breast-feeding, mother’s age, and socioeconomic status. In Bangladesh but not in the Philippines, these effects are confined to the neonatal period.
Demand or Ideation? Evidence from the Iranian Marital Fertility Decline
Authors: Raftery Adrian E. , Lewis Steven M. , Aghajanian Akbar
Published: March 2007

Is the onset of fertility decline caused by structural socioeconomic changes or by the transmission of new ideas? The decline of marital fertility in Iran provides a quasi-experimental setting for addressing this question. Massive economic growth started in 1955; measurable ideational changes took place in 1967. We argue that the decline is described more precisely by demand theory than by ideation theory. It began around 1959, just after the onset of massive economic growth but well before the ideational changes. It paralleled the rapid growth of participation in primary education, and we found no evidence that the 1967 events had any effect on the decline. More than one-quarter of the decline can be attributed to the reduction in child mortality, a key mechanism of demand theory. Several other findings support this main conclusion.
New Estimates of Undocumented Mexican Migration and the Probability of Apprehension
Authors: Massey Douglas S. , Singer Audrey
Published: March 2007

Using a new source of data, we estimate the probability of apprehension among Mexican migrants attempting to cross into the United States without documents. Over the period 1965-1989 we found an average apprehension probability of .35, confirming earlier estimates. We then applied annual probabilities to estimate the gross volume of undocumented Mexican migration and adjusted these figures to derive estimates of the net undocumented inflow.
Educational Inequality in Adult Mortality: An Assessment with Death Certificate Data from Michigan
Authors: Christenson Bruce A. , Johnson Nan E.
Published: March 2007

Education was added to the U.S. Standard Certificate of Death in 1989. The current study uses Michigan’s 1989–1991 death certificates, together with the 1990 Census, to evaluate the quality of data on education from death certificates and to examine educational differences in mortality rates. With log-rates modeling, we systematically analyze the variability in educational differences in mortality by race and sex across the adult life cycle. The relative differences in mortality rates between educational levels decline with age at the same pace for all sex and race categories. Women gain a slightly greater reduction in mortality than men by reaching the secondary-education level, but a modestly smaller reduction by advancing beyond it. Blacks show a reduction in predicted mortality rates comparable to whites’ by moving from the secondary to the postsecondary level of education but experience less reduction than whites by moving from the primary to the secondary level. Thus, the secular decline in mortality rates that generally accompanies historical improvements in education might actually be associated with an increase in the relative differences between blacks’ and whites’ mortality. We discuss limitations of the data and directions for future research.
Changes in the Relationship Between Child Support Payments and Educational Attainment of Offspring, 1979–1988
Authors: Hernandez Pedro M. , Beller Andrea H. , Graham John W.
Published: March 2007

We examine changes over the 1980s in the effect of child support payments on the educational attainment of children age 16 to 19 in the United States, and why child support has a stronger impact than other sources of income. We use 1979 and 1988 Current Population Survey data, covering a period when improvements in enforcement should have increased the proportion of reluctant fathers paying support. We hypothesize and find that the positive effect of child support on education diminished somewhat over this period, both absolutely and in relation to other income.
Estimating African-American Mortality from Inaccurate Data
Authors: Elo Irma T. , Preston Samuel H.
Published: March 2007

This paper evaluates the quality of vital statistics and census data for estimating African-American mortality over a period of six decades. The authors employ intercensal cohort comparisons and extinct generation estimates to demonstrate that conventionally constructed African-American death rates may be seriously flawed as early as age 50. Using the crude death rate at ages 50+ for 1978-1982 in conjunction with estimated growth rates and two model life table systems, the authors estimate black age-specific death rates in 1978–1982. These results suggest that if a racial crossover in death rates occurs, the age pattern of mortality among African-Americans must be far outside the range observed in populations with more accurate data.