bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Systematic geo-hazards detection and analysis over EU borders based on EGMS data: RASTOOL Project
Authors: Ezquerro Martín Pablo , Béjar-Pizarro Marta , María Mateos Rosa , Guardiola-Albert Carolina , Martínez-Corbella Mónica , Pérez López Raúl , Sarro Roberto , Aguilera-Alonso Héctor , Monserrat Oriol , Barra Anna , Cuevas María , Poyiadji Eleftheria , Luis Zezere Jose , Quental Lidia
Published: February 2023

Copernicus European Ground Motion Service (EGMS) currently provides a big amount of ground-motion data at national scale. This useful information is usually underused by management Authorities and decision-makers due to the difficulties to manage it. RASTOOL project aims to develop and apply new tools over EU borders in order to generate added-value maps detecting the deformation areas and assessing their potential impact to support geo-hazard management. Based on the first release of the EGMS data (Level-2 products), test sites have been selected over the Spanish-Portuguese border obtaining the first performance data of the RASTOOL tools.The thematic auxiliary data and database/inventories necessary to apply the tools have been gathered and prepared to: 1) identify active deformation areas applying advanced requirements and 2) characterize the detected active deformation areas, providing possible triggering factors. Previously unknown active ground deformation areas detected in the study area will be validated in situ through field work to determine the process which can originate such deformation. The final goal is to assess the potential impact of the detected active hazards, using the new tools that will provide information about the vulnerability of the exposed elements.
Radial Evolution of the Solar Wind and Associated Wavelike Turbulence Based on Synergetic Measurements and Compared with Wave Propagation Model
Authors: He Jiansen , Duan Die , Zhu Xingyu , Verscharen Daniel , Bowen Trevor , Bale Stuart
Published: February 2023

The quasi-radial alignment between Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and other spacecraft further away from the sun provides a great opportunity to observe the radial evolution of the solar wind and associated wavelike turbulence from the inner heliosphere near the solar corona to the near-earth environment. We choose the 4th and 11th encounters of PSP with their respective perihelion distances of ~30 Rs and 13 Rs away from the sun to adress this issue. Similar time profiles of solar wind variables' changes are observed from both PSP and Wind (at 1 au) measurements. The accelerating-solar-wind model could be more suitable than the constant speed model for the observation, which means the solar wind is still accelerating from the perihelion distance (e.g., 30 Rs) to 1 au. Both PSP and Wind measure the co-existence of the Alfvenic and compressive fluctuations in the solar wind. It is interesting to note that the good correlation between radial velocity component (dVR), proton density (dn) and temperature (dT) fluctuations indicate the nature of the compressive fluctuations are outward-propagating slow-mode waves. However, dn and dB is well not correlated for PSP measurements, but in good correlation for Wind measurements, which indicates the propagating direction of the slow-mode waves is evolving along the distance from the quasi-parallel direction to the quasi-perpendicular direction. Comparing the radial evolution of the energies of both Alfvenic and compressive fluctuations with the WKB model, we find the observed energy decays slower than the theoretical prediction, which indicates the existence of extra energy injection and energy cascade during the solar wind expansion.
Novel method of ocean alkalinity enhancement using ikaite and other hydratedcarbonate minerals
Authors: Bastianini Laura , Peterson Kristina , Renforth Phil
Published: February 2023

Removing large volumes of CO2 from the atmosphere, as well as rapid and deep emission reductions, may be required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. This has catalyzed recent attention on carbon dioxide removal (CDR) approaches that can remove more CO2 from the atmosphere than they emit. The oceans absorb approximately 25% of the CO2 that is emitted to the atmosphere, which causes acidification and adds to the stress experienced by some shell-forming organisms. A relatively inexpensive process for creating a hydrated calcium carbonate, ikaite, could be used to mimic the effect of natural carbonate weathering. This process uses high pressure CO2 (~15 bar) in an aqueous reactor to dissolve crushed limestone within minutes. The calcium rich water is passed to a low-pressure reactor (~0.1 bar) that evolves and recycles gaseous CO2 and forces the precipitation of ikaite over 30 – 80 minutes at temperatures <15°C. Experimental results suggest complete dissolution of ikaite can increase seawater alkalinity and thus potentially ameliorate the effects of ocean acidification. The focus of this study is on material characterisation and geochemical kinetics. In particular, we are using Raman spectroscopy coupled with X-Ray Diffraction for identification of the materials synthetically formed and we are exploring experimentally the precipitation and dissolution kinetics of ikaite and other hydrated carbonate minerals such as amorphous calcium carbonate (ACC). Preliminary results show that ikaite might be a precursor of ACC and synthetic can be stable for days at low temperature (sufficient time to be added to the ocean) and that it dissolves in seawater and stoichiometrically increases alkalinity.            This technology could be scaled up to have a meaningful impact on climate change, and the costs could be comparable to other CO2 removal approaches. That is possible within the next 20 to 30 years, particularly as the raw materials are abundant.
The TRIPLE project – Towards technology solutions for life detection missions
Authors: Kowalski Julia , Boxberg Marc S. , Grundmann Jan Thimo , de Vera Jean-Pierre Paul , Heinen Dirk , Funke Oliver ,   TRIPLE consortium
Published: February 2023

The exploration of ocean worlds in the outer Solar System, for example, the Jovian moon Europa and the Saturnian moon Enceladus, are of particular interest for the search for extraterrestrial life. Direct in situ exploration of moons harbouring significant amounts of liquid water beneath their ice surface poses many challenges and requires a sophisticated technological approach. The TRIPLE project (Technologies for Rapid Ice Penetration and Subglacial Lake Exploration) initiated by the German Space Agency at DLR forms a national consortium to work on robotic technologies for sub-ice exploration. The planned system consists of the fully autonomous, untethered miniature submersible robot, called nanoAUV, the IceCraft, a melting probe for penetrating the ice with the nanoAUV as payload, and an astrobiology in-situ laboratory, the AstroBioLab, to study fluid and sediment samples.Beneath a several kilometre-thick ice-shell of the moons considered here, global oceans are well hidden and not easily accessible, posing extreme challenges for any robotic exploration as it is addressed in the TRIPLE project. Therefore, ice drilling and state-of-the-art technologies need to be developed to meet the manifold requirements. In view of future missions to icy moons, in TRIPLE, an analogue terrestrial demonstration is intended for first time exploration of a subglacial lake at the Dome-C region in Antarctica. The Dome-C mission requires a retrievable melting probe that can penetrate a 4-kilometre-thick layer of ice. It is essential for the mission that the melting probe is able to detect and avoid obstacles along its trajectory and to anchor itself at the ice-water interface for release and support of the nanoAUV into the water. The AstroBioLab concept provides an automated sample analysis laboratory for habitability investigations. It shall not only be able to detect various biosignatures in samples taken from the subglacial habitats, but shall also provide unequivocal evidence of life. For the field test in a terrestrial analogue setting, portable and robust devices using fast analysis methods are particularly suitable, which, as far as possible, should not require time-consuming sample preparation. In this contribution, we give an overview of the TRIPLE project and report on its current status.
Collisionless shock as a self-organized system
Authors: Gedalin Michael
Published: February 2023

A collisionless shock is a self-organized system, the main task of which is fast and stable transfer of the conserved quantities, that is, mass, momentum, and energy, from one side, upstream, to the other side, downstream, while adding entropy. ”Fast” means that the transfer occurs at the scalesmuch smaller than the MHD scales. ”Stable” means that there are not disruptions of substantial changes on average, except those which are causedby variations of ambient conditions. In this approach the developing shock structure is the one which ensures this transfer. This means, that if thetransfer stability is not possible without an overshoot, an overshoot has to be formed. If it is not possible without rippling, rippling will develop. Sinceions are the main carriers of these conserved quantities, it is ions which are responsible for developing the structure and it is ions which have tomost strongly affected by it. In particular, we show that overshoot plays an important role regulating ion reflection so that the shock becomes stable.
Using Mixing Diagrams to Evaluate the Evolution of theConvective Boundary Layer in NWP Models
Authors: Turner David D. , Wagner Timothy , Heus Thijs , Rosenberger Tessa , He Siwei
Published: February 2023

Land-atmosphere feedbacks can play a critical role in daytime convective boundary layer (CBL) evolution. Mixing diagrams provide a framework for disentangling the relative contributions of entrainment, advection, and surface fluxes in the evolution of the CBL moisture and energy budgets. Entrainment is particularly difficult to observe with operational ground-based sensors, and mixing diagrams provide a way to quantify this contribution to the CBL.We use this framework to evaluate the evolution of the CBL as represented by the Rapid Refresh (which has 13-km grid) and the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (which has a 3-km grid) numerical weather prediction models.  We have identified 30 cases in a three-month period between May and July 2019 at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) site in north-central Oklahoma; over this period of time the land surface transitioned from a moist soil with green vegetation to a relatively dry soil with harvested crops.  A key instrument in this analysis is an infrared spectrometer (IRS), from which profiles of temperature and humidity can be retrieved at 5-min resolution.  At this ARM site, a network of IRS and Doppler lidars surround the central facility, from which we are able to derive the advective fluxes of temperature and water vapor.  Our analysis focused on how well the two modeling systems represent the relative contributions from entrainment, surface fluxes, and advection over this three-month period.
Understanding the connectivity of pharmaceutical pollution in river catchments
Authors: Costescu Julia , Bracken Louise , Turnbull-Lloyd Laura , Reaney Sim , Crilly Damian
Published: February 2023

The near ubiquitous presence of pharmaceutical compounds in environmental waters represents an emerging cause for concern, but gaps remain in our understanding of how human and veterinary pharmaceuticals enter and travel through river catchments. A more holistic approach is needed in order to develop effective management strategies that conform to the catchment-based approach, although this is complicated by the patchy nature of available monitoring data for river water and by the significant seasonal variation in concentrations which makes comparisons even within datasets tenuous. Here, an exploration of pharmaceutical concentrations across the Aire catchment in the UK aims to provide insight into how the underlying connectivity of the catchment system, conceptualized as a source-pathway-receptor model, may determine observed patterns of contamination. To account for temporal variations of inputs and flow, samples collected on two separate occasions (corresponding to low and high flow conditions, respectively) were used to create two spatial snapshots for contamination with nine representative compounds. The snapshots were then used to explore spatial patterns in the catchment and what factors – topographic, physico-chemical, or related to potential sources and pathways for pharmaceutical pollution – may influence them. For the first snapshot, conducted in low flow conditions, none of the locations had concentrations above the limit of detection for five of the nine target analytes (Atenolol, Diclofenac, Erythomycin, Iopromide and Sulphadiazine). Results for the detected compounds have emphasized the difference in spatial patterns based on use category: as opposed to the veterinary use compound (Cypermethrin), the human use compounds (Carbamazepine, Lidocaine and Sucralose) showed significant correlation to contributing area, as well as to population served by the wastewater treatment plants upstream of the sampling sites and corresponding estimates for amounts of prescribed active ingredient. Sucralose also produced strong correlations to Carbamazepine and Lidocaine, supporting its use as a proxy for contamination with human pharmaceuticals, alongside the more frequently cited Carbamazepine. Ultimately, this research will inform the development of a graph representation of the system, used to assess the relative contribution of different pathways as they connect to the river channel and to inform as to the best intervention points within the catchment.
Effect of Qinghai Madoi MS7.4 earthquake on Coulomb stress and earthquake probability increment of adjacent faults
Authors: Liu Boyan
Published: February 2023

On May 22, 2021, a MS7.4 earthquake occurred in Madoi County, Guoluo Prefecture, Qinghai Province. The epicenter was located at 98.34°E and 34.59°N (Officially determined by China Earthquake Networks Center). The earthquake occurred inside the Bayan Har block with a focal depth of 17 kilometers. The regional stress adjustment after a major earthquake directly causes the surrounding faults to undergo Coulomb stress changes, which affects the rate of seismic activity, off-fault aftershocks, and probability changes of occurrence of impending earthquakes. This paper uses the fault slip model to calculate Coulomb stress changes of main faults in Madoi area of Qinghai. Using the Dieterich earthquake occurrence rate model, a formula for the occurrence probability of an earthquake exceeding a certain magnitude under the Coulomb stress disturbance is obtained. We calculate the probability changes of MS≥7.0 and MS≥6.0 earthquake occurrence of the surrounding 8 faults (segments) which caused by the Coulomb stress increase. Affected by the Qinghai Madoi MS7.4 earthquake, the probability of the 8 faults earthquake occurrence has increased to varying degrees. For the Gander South Margin fault, Madoi-Gander fault and Tibet Dagou- Changmahe fault, the probability of earthquakes occurrence has increased rapidly in a short period of time (within about 10 years) after the main shock and it has stabilized later. There is a potential for destructive earthquakes, especially for earthquakes with MS≥6.0. For the Dari fault, since the increase in Coulomb stress has little effect, it is unlikely to occur MS≥7.0 or MS≥6.0 in the short term. However, as time goes by, the possibility of potentially destructive earthquakes occurring decades later cannot be ruled out. Particular attention to the possibility of earthquakes with MS≥6.0 should be paid to. The East Kunlun fault, especially the Maqin-Maqu section, is still a possible section for strong earthquakes in the future. This section still needs to focus on and prevent earthquakes with MS≥6.0 and even MS≥7.0. An earthquake with MS≥6.0 occurred on the Yushu-Ganzi fault, especially the risk of an earthquake with MS≥7.0 is not high, while the Ulan-Ula Lake-Yushu South fault has a potential risk of destructive earthquakes. It is necessary to strengthen prevention for earthquakes with MS≥6.0.
Trade-off between irrigation demands and environmental flows requirements in Spain
Authors: Bianucci Sandra Paola , Sordo-Ward Álvaro , Bejarano María Dolores , Garrote Luis
Published: February 2023

Providing adequate water supply following the development of society and ensuring the good status of water-dependent ecosystems is becoming increasingly complex. This is particularly relevant in areas characterized by water scarcity and with unfavourable projections due to climate change, such as the Iberian Peninsula. Water is fully allocated in many water resources systems, while environmental water requirements are intensified. Consequently, it is fairly probable that in the medium and long term water demands will not be satisfied with the current reliability. This fact may particularly affect to irrigation water supply, as the most important consumptive water use. We are developing a National Research Project entitled: Climate scenarios and adaptation of water resources systems (SECA-SRH). The main purpose is to generate knowledge that contributes to the design and implementation of climate change adaptation policies that consider simultaneously technical, economic, social and environmental aspects. The increase of the comprehension of water system behaviour allows decisions making and prioritizing water uses. This would help to achieve the sustainability of the management of water resources systems in the medium and long term. In this study, as part of the mentioned project, we analyse the effect of different criteria for the allocation of environmental flows on the sustainability of the water resources systems in Spain, in the current situation (1989-2019). The availability of water is estimated as the maximum water demand for population and agriculture (irrigation) that can be supplied with a given reliability in a given location of the river network and satisfying environmental flow restrictions. The methodology is based on the use of the high resolution WAAPA model. 720 dams with a reservoir greater than 1 hm3 and 1948 sub-basins are considered. The calculation is made at each dam, at the confluences of the main rivers and for the aggregate set of each sub-basin. The results show that the availability of water in a system is very sensitive to changes in environmental flow regimes. The relationship between reduction in water availability and environmental flows is unevenly distributed in Spain. This result may suggest that the implications of increasing the allocation of water to environmental flows may vary, depending on the hydrological regime and storage availability.
Innovating global flood alerting with an ensemble of models and remotely sensed observations
Authors: Kar Bandana , Sharma Prativa , Bausch Doug , Wang Jun , Schumann Guy , Glasscoe Margaret
Published: February 2023

At the global level, several flood related tools are available for free, ranging from observations to modeling and forecasting, using field data, remotely sensed observations as well as hydrologic and hydrodynamic models (for more details of available tools, see EOTEC DevNet’s tool tracking capacity building resources for flooding at https://eotec-dev.ceos.org/tools/). In this context, the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS) managed by Copernicus, for instance, aims to facilitate response to flooding, particularly in countries that cannot forecast these events on their own.However, having an EWS available to all globally, with consistent accuracy and reliability, for alerting at different severity levels, will not only aid with reduction of flood impacts, but also assist with improving resilience of these counties. In this paper, we present the model of models (MoM), which is an ensembled model that forecasts flood severity daily, globally at sub-watershed level. MoM integrates the outputs of GloFAS, GFMS, and HWRF models to forecast severity and uses MODIS and VIIRS outputs for calibration and validation of severity scores.The flood severity risk score is used to obtain and process high-resolution Earth observation data to assess flood depth and extent at granular level and estimate flood impact on critical infrastructure.The flood severity score is used to trigger dissemination of alerts using PDC’s DisasterAWARE® platform.We present a number of real event cases where MoM has been activated to alert and assist with event response activities, including performance validation with high-resolution satellite flood maps.
On the driving forces of the rifting processes along the Makkah-Madinah Transform Zone, Western Arabia
Authors: Aldaajani Thamer , Furlong Kevin
Published: February 2023

The Arabian Margin experienced intense volcanism over the last 10 Ma, including volcanic eruptions as recent as 600 years ago. What is more, two earthquakes with magnitude > 5 have been recently reported with normal faulting along the Arabian Margin, suggesting that the Arabian Margin is undergoing active deformation. Due to the limited number of GPS stations within the Arabian plate, investigating the intraplate deformation was challenging. A new set of GPS data with 87 stations is used in this work to investigate the Arabian margin rigidity and intraplate deformation (Aldaajani et al., 2021). This new GPS velocities show higher residuals along the Arabian margin that produces dilatational strain rate pattern within the Arabian margin, in the vicinity of the Makkah-Madinah Transtensional zone. The causes of these GPS residuals along the Arabian Margin are unknown. In this work, we use the finite element modeling approach to highlight the mechanical deformation processes along the Arabian margin and test their driving forces. These candidate forces are related either to the edge forces as introduced by the Red Sea rift, the Arabian Margin interior forces as introduced by calculating the Gravitational Potential Energy, or the basal tractions as driven by sub-lithospheric topography and mantle flow. Our results indicate that the GPS residuals are not likely linked with the Gravitational Potential Energy forces. Instead, the basal tractions along an asthenospheric channel, which aligns geographically with the Makkah Madinah Volcanic Line, is the potential driving force for the observed deformation along the Arabian margin.
Using the sea level equation to increase the resolution of GRACE inferences: Implications for studies of Fennoscandian GIA
Authors: Powell Evelyn , Davis James
Published: February 2023

The GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) satellites measure the Earth’s geopotential, and we can use this data to monitor spatiotemporal mass load changes in Earth's ice sheets. The geopotential measurements are both resolution-limited by the orbital configurations and subject to the complexities of present-day sea level change; for example, when an ice sheet melts, the accompanying migration of water should lead to a systematic bias in GRACE estimates of ice mass loss (Sterenborg et al., 2013). Indeed, using mascons and an iterative approach, Sutterley et al. (2020) found that variations in regional sea level affect ice sheet mass balance estimates in Greenland and in Antarctica by approximately 5%. Here, we use the sea level equation in our inferences of ice-mass loss both to increase the resolution of those inferences and to include the sea-level response in the analysis of GRACE data. We will test the resolution, implementation, accuracy, and impacts of a constrained least squares inversion of GRACE data. We will then investigate how deformation associated with our estimates of ongoing global surface mass change affects Earth-model inferences from geodetic data and Glacial Isostatic Adjustment modeling, with a focus region of Fennoscandia.
Cosmic ray muons as a proxy for in-cruise galactic cosmic ray protons in 3He gas proportional counters
Authors: Wilson Jack T. , Peplowski Patrick N. , Yokley Zachary W. , Lawrence David J. , Elphic Richard C.
Published: February 2023

3He gas proportional counters have an extensive history in planetary neutron spectroscopy and several upcoming missions including Psyche, VIPER, MMX and Dragonfly will include this technology. In space, Galactic Cosmic Ray (GCR) protons deposit energy in the 3He gas in these detectors via ionization. This energy deposition constitutes a background on top of the neutron capture pulse-height spectrum that is particularly prominent at low energies. As planetary nuclear spectroscopy experiments are often count-rate limited using the full pulse height spectrum, including the proton and triton wall effect regions, has significant value. This will be particularly true for the upcoming VIPER mission that will explore the permanently shaded regions at the Moon’s south pole using the Neutron Spectrometer System (NSS).  The NSS does not include a neutron generator, so the count rates are low, and the rover will not spend long at any location.  However, using lower-energy parts of the spectrum requires understanding the GCR-originating background, which none of the previous missions were able to measure due to their low-energy cutoffs. GCR protons with mean energy around 400 MeV deposit similar amounts of energy to the 4 GeV mean-energy muons present at ground level as both represent minimum ionizing particles within the 3He sensors.  We therefore developed an experiment using a pair of plastic scintillators in coincidence with a 3He tube to measure energy deposition from muons while excluding room background gamma rays.  Here we will present results of this experiment to characterize the angular response to cosmic ray muons of a 3He flight spare detector from the VIPER NSS and explore the implications of these results for analysis of planetary neutron data sets.
Effectively Communicating Aviation Hazards through Modernized Web Products
Authors: Cross Austin , Avay Stephanie , Hepper Robert , Vietor Dan , Stevens Nicole
Published: February 2023

Effectively communicating hazardous weather conditions to the general aviation (GA) community is acontinuously evolving effort of US National Weather Service (NWS) Aviation Weather Center (AWC)operations. AWC has started to transition text heavy products in favor of easily interpreted dynamicgraphics that provide additional information that was never fully realized through text alone.AWC provides domestic and international aviation weather forecasts and warnings, disseminatedthrough traditional product dissemination as well as directly to end users through AviationWeather.gov.The web site is currently undergoing a complete rewrite, in order to both modernize and improveconsistency. Customer feedback has been gathered over multiple years and the rewrite is intended toaddress a number of issues in a comprehensive manner.Many products that were previously available in multiple formats are now presented through a moreintegrated framework, allowing for the user to combine different datasets as desired. The GraphicalForecasts for Aviation (GFA), first developed as a replacement for the traditional text Area Forecast,now spans a wide variety of weather information in a one stop Geographic Information Systems (GIS)interactive web framework. The site is designed to adjust to available screen real estate, making thesame data and interface available on a variety of platforms from desktop computers to tablets andphones.The new site has been in an experimental status since spring of 2022, while AWC collects feedback onthe new design and performed a social science user assessment in partnership with the US FederalAviation Administration’s (FAA) Aviation Weather Demonstration and Evaluation service group. Thispresentation will discuss the design and features of the new site, as well as lessons learned from theaviation weather user community during the development and evaluation.
Global cooling controls Paleogene (54-26 Ma) paleolake hydrological evolution and regional chemical weathering processes in the Qaidam Basin, NE Tibet
Authors: Ye Chengcheng , Yang yibo , Fang Xiaomin , Zhang Weilin , Guo Zengguang , Liu Yudong
Published: February 2023

The thick and continuous lacustrine-fluvial sediments in the Qaidam Basin (paleo-Qaidam Lake), NE Tibetan Plateau, serve as excellent archives to reconstruct the Asian inland climate evolution history and explore the driven factors involving Tibetan Plateau uplift, Paratethys retreat, and global climate change. However, the debated elevation history of the Tibetan Plateau and the overlapping climate effects of the Tibetan Plateau uplift and Paratethys retreat makes it difficult to assess the driving mechanism on regional climate change in a particular period. Fortunately, some recent progress suggests that precisely dated Paratethys transgression/regression cycles appear to have fluctuated over broad regions with low relief in the northern Tibetan Plateau before 26 Ma, when the global climate was characterized by generally continuous cooling, thus offering an opportunity to distinguish between the climatic effects of the Paratethys retreat and those of global cooling.Here, we present detailed mineralogical and geochemical investigations of clay minerals collected from the Hongliugou section, northern Qaidam Basin, to reconstruct paleolake salinity variation and basin weathering history in the Paleogene (~54-26 Ma), aiming to obtain a complete regional climate change record and its controlling factors. The paleolake salinity, indicated by two clay-fraction paleosalimeters, equivalent boron and Couch’s salinity, collectively present a long-term lake salinization, from slightly mesohalobic environment (averaging ~4.4‰) in middle Eocene (42-~34 Ma) to mesohalobic/polysaline environment (averaging ~8.3‰) in late Eocene-early Oligocene (~34-~29 Ma). Regarding regional weathering history, the clay mineral assemblage, the clay-fraction geochemistry index (e.g., CIA and Mg/Al ratios) and monomineral indices involving illite chemistry index, beidellite content and chlorite chemistry index and Mg/Al ratios collectively suggest a long-term decreasing trend in 54-26 Ma. The history of both paleolake hydrological evolution (salinity) and basin weathering matches well with the global climate change as indicated by benthic oxygen isotope. We thus reasonably speculate that the secular trend of regional climate change is primarily controlled by global cooling, which regulates regional climate change by influencing the evaporation capacity in the moisture source of Qaidam Basin and the westerly wind strength. Superimposed on this trend, the Paratethys transgression/regression cycles served as an important factor regulating wet/dry fluctuations in the Asian interior.
Towards holistic global coastal flood risk assessments including Nature-based Solutions
Authors: Tiggeloven Timothy , de Moel Hans , Ward Philip
Published: February 2023

In the coming century, people in low-lying coastal urban areas are projected to face an increase in coastal flood risk due to increases in, for example, urban development, sea-level rise, subsidence, and degradation of foreshore vegetation. To implement and raise awareness of coastal climate change adaptation, it is important to better understand the effectiveness of coastal flood risk adaptation strategies, such as Nature-based Solutions and hybrid strategies. Nature-based adaptation in coastal areas, such as vegetation on the foreshore, is showing potential to mitigate the impacts of climate change. Unlike previous studies of Nature-based Solutions, we provide a quantitative assessment of the benefits of combining Nature-based Solutions and structural measures, so-called hybrid solutions, in terms of reduced economic damage, exposed population, and social vulnerability indicators such as poverty dynamics. We show that including hybrid solutions in coastal management strategies benefits people living in poverty more than other people, because the former group are often more prone to coastal flooding. As such, Nature-based and hybrid solutions in lower and middle income countries could contribute to the resilience of people in poverty.
MYRIAD-EU: multi-hazard risk assessmnet and management
Authors: Ward Philip ,   The MYRIAD-EU team
Published: February 2023

The MYRIAD-EU project sets out to catalyse a paradigm shift in how risks are currently assessed and managed. Instead of addressing risks and hazards one by one, we are co-developing the first harmonised framework for multi-hazard, multi-sector, and systemic risk management. The interlinkages between the different hazards, economic sectors, and regions are being studied in 5 pilots around the EU. In this presentation, highlights from across the project will be presented. These includes the first version of the overall framework, insights from its testing in practice, progress towards a first global multi-hazard dataset, and methods for developing multi-risk adaptive pathways.
Water retention potentials of Italian soils and physiological responses of potted yellow kiwifruit
Authors: Toselli Moreno , Baldi Elena , Quartieri Maurizio , Chiarelli Giacomo , Larocca Greta Nicla , Xylogiannis Evangelos , Mastroleo Marco
Published: February 2023

Correct water management of yellow kiwifruit vines is essential for reaching high yield and fruit quality, to keep plants healthy and avoid useless water loss. The aim of the present experiment was to evaluate the physiological responses of potted Zezy002 (Actinidia chinensis var chinensis) plants to decrease of soil moisture to the wilting point, and to assess the retention curves of 5 typical soil substrates for the kiwifruit production in Italy. The 5 soils were collected from 4 Italian regions named: Basilicata, Calabria, Emilia-Romagna and Lazio (2 soils: Folie and Rosini). Plants from each soil were divided in three groups: 3 plants were irrigated maintaining soil moisture at field capacity (CONTROL); 4 plants were subjected to water stress (STRESS plants), after 48 h of water suspension, two of the four plants were irrigated as for the control plants (RECOVERY). Each pot was provided with a chalk potentiometric probe to monitor soil matric potential (Ym). In addition, soil moisture was evaluated by weight of a soil sample oven-dried, finally daily pot evapotranspiration rate was evaluated gravimetrically by pot weight at 24-h-interval. Leaf gas exchange and stem water potential (Yw) were measured daily. After irrigation suspension, plants rapidly (48 h) reached the wilting point evidenced by the stop of CO2 fixation. This corresponded to stem Yw lower than -1.75 MPa in all soils but the one from Emilia-Romagna which had the higher percentage of loam (42%) that also maintained a positive CO2 assimilation rate longer than the other soils. In this lapse of time, the rate of leaf CO2 assimilation, stomatal conductance and transpiration sharply decreased while intercellular CO2 concentration increased. Similarly stem Yw responded quickly to the suspension and re-start of irrigation, reaching values as low as – 1,9 MPa 2 days after the quit of irrigation. At wilting points soil Ym was: -0.96 MPa for Emilia-Romagna, -0.5 MPa for Basilicata, -1.6 MPa for Calabria, -1.8 MPa for Lazio Folie and -2.3 MPa for Lazio Rosini. CO2 assimilation was better correlated to stem Yw than soil Ym.Key words: soil water moisture, chalk potentiometric probe, leaf gas exchange, stem water potential, soil matric potential
Natural measures of asymptotically autonomous systems
Authors: Newman Julian , Ashwin Peter
Published: February 2023

Rate-induced phenomena can be mathematically modelled in terms of a dynamical system with a real-time (as opposed to quasistatic) parameter drift between two values; that is to say, the parameter converges to two different values as time tends to negative and positive infinity, giving rise to a nonautonomous dynamical system that is asymptotically autonomous. Representing stable climate states by attractors of the parameter-dependent autonomous system through which the parameter drift takes place, rate-induced tipping is modelled as the phenomenon that a trajectory of the nonautonomous system that starts in the past in the vicinity of one attractor lands in the vicinity of an attractor representing a different stable climate state in the future. However, if these attractors are chaotic, they exhibit sensitive dependence on initial conditions, which on the one hand makes investigation of any individually selected typical initial condition numerically impossible and physically irrelevant, but on the other hand makes a probabilistic description of long-term behaviour of trajectories an effective tool. This probabilistic description is provided by the "natural measure" on a chaotic attractor; in this poster, we consider the question of when this concept of "natural measures" can be extended from the classical setting of autonomous systems to the setting of asymptotically autonomous systems and hence used to provide a mathematically well-defined quantification of the "probability of tipping" between two stable climate states.
Indicators of changing resilience and potential tipping points in the automotive industry
Authors: Buxton Joshua E , Boulton Chris A , Mercure Jean-Francois , Lam Aileen , Lenton Timothy M
Published: February 2023

Through innovation and wider socio-economic processes, large sections of the economy have been known to rapidly (and often irreversibly) transition to alternative states. One such sector currently undergoing a transition is the automotive industry, which is moving from a state dominated by internal combustion engines to one characterised by low-emission vehicles. While much research has focused on early warning signals of climate and ecological tipping points, there is much to be done on assessing the applicability of these methods to social systems. Here we focus on the potential for tipping points to occur in the sale of electrical vehicles in various markets, including Norway and the UK. Early indicators that this new state is being approached are considered through the use of novel data sources such as car sales, infrastructure announcements and online advert engagement. We then map out the socio-technical feedback loops which may drive these tipping points. Consideration is also given to the resilience of the wider automotive industry to previous economic shocks. 
Surface water flood forecast-based loss estimation for resilient finance
Authors: Tsaknias Dimosthenis , Pledger Andrew , Baruch Avinoam , Yu Dapeng
Published: February 2023

Hazard warning systems are being increasingly employed globally, though these fail to account for surface water flooding or flooding from ordinary water courses. Thus, Previsico currently delivers to asset owners a warning and forecast service for surface water flooding at 25m resolution using its proprietary live hydrodynamic modelling software. Flood forecasts are generated every three hours and are produced using the latest rainfall nowcasts (6-hour outlook) and forecasts (48-hour outlook). The service issues property-level alerts so assets can be moved to safety, and organisations can improve their flood response capabilities. However, whilst warnings are important for mitigating physical impacts and losses, they – in isolation – are insufficient for coordinating the responses of insurers, re-insurers, and the wider finance sector. Of particular note, the accuracy of catastrophe claim reserves that depends on correct and timely loss estimates can directly affect the solvency and stability of a company. Loss estimation tools combining flood nowcasting and forecasting for perils that are rarely accounted for (e.g. surface water and ordinary water course flooding) are urgently needed to help insurers and reinsurers make reserving decisions with confidence.We have therefore developed a loss estimation algorithm parameterised using Previsico’s world-leading forecast and nowcast derived flood extent and depth data and asset exposure and vulnerability data to produce near-present views of financial risk. Loss estimates will in turn be delivered to customers via Previsico’s flood dashboard and email alerts and alongside asset alerts and flood tiles, will support improved flood response capabilities for both the financial sector and associated stakeholders, including property owners and managers.     
Future Extreme Weather: a Data and AI driven approach to Understand Future Coastal Flooding
Authors: Suciu Tudor , Shuckburgh Emily , Lane Nicholas
Published: February 2023

Coastal flooding can be regarded as the most damaging extreme weather event. Carefulplanning of mitigation and adaptation strategies requires a deep understanding of the event’slikelihood and intensity.This project provides a framework for assessing those changing statistics of coastal floods inthe future. We use historical records of coastal floods on the coasts of the UK historicalweather variables data (sea surface temperature, sea-level pressure, zonal and meridionalwind speeds and daily precipitations) from remote sensing sources, reanalysis data andglobal climate models and future predictions of those weather variables from global climatemodels. The method consists of using machine learning models to classify days as beingeither ‘flooded’ (i.e. containing a coastal flood event) or ‘non-flooded’, at tide gaugelocations in the past 2 decades; both ‘out-of-the-box’ and more complex machine learningmodels are trained on historical data. The models are then further used to assess the futurestatistics of coastal flooding, by classifying days with or without flooding in the futuredecades, from global climate models data. Currently, the method is showing promisingresults on predicting the future number of ‘flooding days’, while the models used and trainedstill show gradual improvement.Using the same intensity scale as in the dataset of historical records of floods, it can beassessed whether those events are becoming stronger or not. As well, the frequency, or thereturn period, for the upcoming decades can be inferred from this project. This frameworkproduces an actionable set of information, that can be used by policy-makers, businesses,governments and people, to plan accordingly for future floods.
Quantification of evaluation methods of cultural ecosystem services using Statistical Database
Authors: Seo Jayoo , Park Chan
Published: February 2023

Of the four types of ecosystem services, Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) is more difficult and underresearched than the others. Because people interact with nature in complex and diverse ways, CES cannot be explained as a direct benefit to people. Even at the national level, evaluation items and indicators for CES are not clear and common, so it is necessary to use data for a detailed review of indicators. This study aims to explore ways to apply quantitative data to CES assessments, thereby facilitating CES evaluations in national ecosystem service evaluations. We decided that, as one of these solutions, we could use the statistical data that the state had built. Among the data available nationally, national statistics are the most uniform and systematic. As for Korea's national statistics, a total of 191,215 kinds of statistics are open (as of June 2022) from 30 topics such as population and environment, central administrative agencies, local governments, financial institutions, public corporations and industrial complexes, research institutes, associations, and cooperatives. Only statistical data that were similar to the indicators of dual ecosystem service evaluation were extracted. This was then condensed into an indicator similar to CES. At this time, the difference between the CES indicator and other service indicators was based on 1) whether the CES indicator was covered in previous research, 2) whether it could act as an inclusive service such as local history, culture, religion, etc., and 3) whether the service benefits depended on human will. As a result, it was condensed into 100 statistics. Indicators of assessment found statistical data to assess landscape, health and healing, leisure recreation, and heritage, and no statistical data to assess educational value. Through this study, it is possible to quantify the evaluation method of cultural services, which is the most difficult to scientifically and quantitatively evaluate among ecosystem services. Through big data analysis, the evaluation status of international and national units can be checked, and the utilization of national statistical portals can be increased as objectified evaluation data. In addition, national statistical construction can be added with the information needed to achieve the country's comprehensive environmental plan and biodiversity goals.
High temporal resolution measurements of subarctic carbon exchange following natural soil temperature manipulation
Authors: Avila Linsey , Protti Fabrizzio , Sigurdsson Pall , Hamedpour Amir , Sigurdsson Bjarni D. , Larsen Klaus Steenberg
Published: February 2023

According to contemporary research, mass greening of the northern latitudes is likely to take place as global temperatures continue to rise. While this could support an overall increase in autotrophic uptake of CO2, rising temperatures could also expose a higher CO2 emission potential as reparation rates respond to our changing climate. Thus, the future carbon balance in high-latitude ecosystems remains uncertain. Utilizing high-frequency measurements of ecosystem-level carbon exchange in these regions could unearth a valuable understanding of just how rising temperatures will affect the soil-plant continuum under varying future climate scenarios.Over the course of a two year study period, we measured in-situ carbon exchanges using four ECO2flux automated chambers at one of the geothermal grasslands sites within the FutureArctic network. The chambers were placed at different locations along a soil temperature gradient with treatments covering an average of 0, 2.5, 8.5, and 15.0 degree warming. The major aim was to investigate the underlying carbon exchange processes in order to garner better insight into how future climate change induced temperature increases could affect comparable ecosystems under long-term warming. Following a detailed analysis of carbon uptake (gross primary production, GPP) and carbon release (ecosystem respiration, RE) along the temperature gradient would likely expose a positive net plant carbon uptake with increasing temperature as a direct response to the greening effect while respiration could remain lower than GPP, follow a similar trajectory, or offset this increase in uptake entirely depending on length of exposure to soil warming.Preliminary analysis from a subset within the two-year study period was conducted. The fluxes of CO2 showed evident heterogeneity between our four treatments with increasing totals of GPP moving up the temperature gradient. However, during this period, GPP was highest in the treatment with warming around 8.5 degrees above ambient, which suggests that there is likely a temperature threshold for increased uptake with greening between 8.5 to 15 degrees soil warming for this ecosystem. The observed temperature response appears non-linear where both GPP and RE start to decline after reaching this temperature threshold. Knowledge of these non-linear temperature responses for GPP and RE will be of great importance when trying to predict future changes to the carbon balance in Arctic and Sub-Arctic ecosystems.