bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A visit to the Department of Otology and Neurotology, Toronto General Hospital, Ontario, Canada, March to April 2010
Authors: Stapleton E
Published: May 2011

I'm immensely grateful to The Journal of Laryngology & Otology for supporting my visit to the Department of Otology and Neurotology, Toronto General Hospital (Figure 1), Ontario, Canada, during March and April 2010.
Scavenging, the stag hunt, and the evolution of language
Authors: CLARK BRADY
Published: May 2011

This article evaluates Derek Bickerton's 2009 theory of language evolution. Bickerton argues that language was the result of a need to recruit individuals to help in the scavenging of carcasses of megafauna. The signals used for recruitment at the earliest stage of language evolution were iconic and could be used to refer to objects outside the sensory range of the receiver(s). Bickerton's scenario is an example of what is described in game theory as a stag hunt. We can, by recasting Bickerton's scenario as a stag hunt, identify criteria that any account of the transition to language must satisfy. There are several hurdles we would need to jump over to demonstrate that Bickerton's model is valid. First, not much is known about early hominin scavenging. While the available evidence is compatible with Bickerton's scenario, it is compatible with other scenarios as well. Second, Bickerton argues that, at the initial stage of language evolution, signals were grounded in salient aspects of the environment. The empirical support for natural salience as a determinant of the communication systems used at the earliest stages of language evolution is mixed at best; communication systems can arise spontaneously in the absence of natural salience. Third, maintaining communication systems is nontrivial because of the incentive to deceive.
The ‘other’ Muhammadiyah movement: Singapore 1958–2008
Authors: Aljunied Syed Muhd Khairudin
Published: May 2011

This paper provides a critical historical analysis of the Muhammadiyah movement in Singapore. I argue that four processes have been crucial in the emergence and sustenance of the Muhammadiyah within a predominantly non-Muslim society: the symbiotic relationship between the leaders and their followers, the formulation and subsequent reformulation of the ideology of the movement, political opportunities which were judiciously exploited and the availability of a wide array of infrastructures. The Muhammadiyah, as will be shown, provides an informative example of an Islamic movement in Southeast Asia that has transcended the challenges faced by the minority Muslim population by making effective use of the limited resources at its disposal.
The blessings and perils of female rule: New perspectives on the reigning queens of Patani, c. 1584–1718
Authors: Amirell Stefan
Published: May 2011

Only in a handful of cases in world history has female rule been seen by contemporary observers as desirable and been sustained for long periods of time. Drawing on European, Malay and Chinese sources, this article investigates the reasons for the institutionalisation of female rule in the Malay sultanate of Patani (presently in southern Thailand) for most of the period between c. 1584 and 1711. It is concluded that the results of previous research, in which the Patani queens are characterised as powerless front figures and/or promiscuous, have insufficient support in the contemporary sources. Furthermore, the problems of female rule for dynastic stability are discussed comparatively. Finally, the decline of female rule in Patani after the mid-seventeenth century is explained with reference to the larger political, economic and military changes in maritime Southeast Asia at the time.
‘Fugitive Mullahs and Outlawed Fanatics’: Indian Muslims in nineteenth century trans-Asiatic Imperial Rivalries
Authors: ALAVI SEEMA
Published: May 2011

This paper follows the careers of ‘outlawed’ Indian Muslim subjects who moved outside the geographical and political space of British India and located themselves at the intersection of nineteenth century trans-Asiatic politics: Hijaz, Istanbul and the Arab provinces of the Ottoman Empire, and Burma and Acheh in the East. These areas were sites where ‘modern’ Empires (British, Dutch, Ottoman and Russian) coalesced to lay out a trans-Asiatic imperial assemblage. The paper shows how Muslim ‘outlaws’ made careers and carved out their transnational networks by moving across the imperial assemblages of the nineteenth century. British colonial rule, being an important spoke in the imperial wheel, enabled much of this transnationalism to weld together. Webs of connections derived from older forms of Islamic connectivity as well: diplomacy, kinship ties, the writing of commentaries on Islam and its sacred texts in unique ways, oral traditions, madrasa and student contacts. These networks were inclusive and impacted by the tanzimat-inspired scriptural reformist thought in the Arab provinces of the Ottoman Empire. They were not narrowly anti-colonial in tone as they derived from a complex inter-play of imperial rivalries in the region. Rather, they were geared towards the triumph of reformist Islam that would unite the umma (community) and engage with the European world order. The paper shows how this imperially-embedded and individual-driven Muslim transnational network linked with Muslim politics rooted within India.
‘Alignment’, not‘alliance’– the shifting paradigm of international security cooperation: toward a conceptual taxonomy of alignment
Authors: WILKINS THOMAS S.
Published: May 2011

This article provides a working taxonomy of the concept of ‘alignment’ in the discipline of International Relations (IR); a heretofore major deficiency in the otherwise abundant literature on alliance/alignment. It further contends that the label ‘alliance’ is commonly employed reflexively and unreflectively, where in fact the term ‘alignment’ would be a superior and more accurate descriptor. This contention is buttressed by empirical developments in international politics. The article makes the case that the contemporary security environment is characterised by multiple forms of ‘alignment’, not just alliances, in their many guises. In addition, we can identify ‘coalitions’, ‘security communities’, and ‘strategic partnerships’; all distinctly different from the conventional ‘alliance’ archetype. It concludes that a change in our thinking about defining and conceptualising alignment and alliance is required to bring disciplinary work closer in line with the paradigmatic shift that is occurring in contemporary international politics.
The politics of knowledge: ethnicity, capacity and return in post-conflict reconstruction policy
Authors: HUGHES CAROLINE
Published: May 2011

A new casting of diasporas, exiles and returnees as potentially transformative agents in post-conflict polities is the topic of this article. ‘Return of Qualified Expatriates’ programmes have recently been launched by international agencies in a number of post-conflict countries in an attempt to promote better capacity-building within post-conflict states institutions. This article argues that the ostensible technical orientation of these programmes is misleading, and they have a political significance which is noted and contested locally. In political terms, they represent attempts to smuggle Western hierarchies of knowledge into post-conflict reconstruction efforts under the cover of ethnic solidarity, to the detriment of local participation and empowerment. The article argues further that this is always contested by interested parties locally, often by mobilising alternative capacities, labelled ‘authentic’, in opposition. As such, strategies that attempt to use ethnic ties to overcome this local contestation are placing a significant burden on ethnic categories that are slippery, malleable and contested in post-conflict contexts. These points are demonstrated with reference to the cases of Cambodia and Timor-Leste.
The Common European Framework of Reference for Languages: A research agenda
Authors: Little David
Published: May 2011

Editorial note

This new strand in the journal provides a space for contributors to present a personal stance either on future research needs or on the perceived current applications of research in the classroom. Like much of our current content, it echoes the historical uniqueness of this journal in terms of its rich and expert overview of recent research in the field of L2 teaching and learning. However, this new strand takes such research as its starting point and attempts to look forward, using these findings both to debate their application in the language learning classroom and also to suggest where research would be best directed in the future. Thus, the objective of both papers is eminently practical: contributors to the research agenda will present suggestions for what research might usefully be undertaken, given what is currently known or what is perceived to be necessary. In the research into practice papers there will be critical appraisal both of what research is, and is not, getting through to the language learning classroom and practical suggestions made for improving such outcomes.
The foundations of accent and intelligibility in pronunciation research
Authors: Munro Murray J. , Derwing Tracey M.
Published: May 2011

Our goal in developing this timeline was to trace the empirical bases of current approaches to L2 pronunciation teaching, with particular attention to the concepts of accent and intelligibility. The process of identifying suitable works for inclusion challenged us in several ways. First, the number of empirical studies of pronunciation instruction is far too small to provide an interesting perspective on the issues. In fact, the dearth of such investigations has been noted many times since at least as far back as the 1960s (Strain 1963; Sisson 1970). Consequently, tracing the roots of contemporary teaching practices required that we expand our purview to consider theoretically-motivated research, as well as influential non-empirical writing about pronunciation. Here we encountered a second problem: the field of applied phonetics and phonology is so diverse that it was very difficult to decide what to omit. The research follows multifarious threads, some of which can directly inform classroom practices, while others are more concerned with general learning influences and processes. In addition, a large body of speculative and opinionated commentary on pronunciation has been published, much of which has never been submitted to empirical test.
The DOTS project: Developing Online Teaching Skills
Authors: Stickler Ursula ,   the DOTS team
Published: May 2011

The use of online tools in educational settings has become ubiquitous, yet effective online teaching requires very specific skills. To provide teaching professionals with an opportunity to develop such skills in a language learning context, the DOTS project (http://dots.ecml.at) was launched with support from ECML. The team is currently creating an online resource in the form of a Moodle workspace populated with bite-size training activities. Through these activities, teachers and trainee teachers of languages who want to extend their teaching into online spaces can develop and enhance their skills. The training materials are by no means limited to technical information and advice, but aim to increase the pedagogic quality of online language teaching. The training kit will provide self-training materials and worksheets that can easily be integrated into existing language teacher training programmes. Communication tools will also be integrated to make the workspace an interactive platform for communication as well as a resource for training materials. This will include forums dedicated to different topics, wikis for collating examples of good practice, and links to other online training spaces. The materials and tools are suitable both for relative novices with basic computing skills and for more advanced users who want to exchange their views and share their expertise on online language teaching.
Informal logic dialogue games in human–computer dialogue
Authors: Yuan Tangming , Moore David , Reed Chris , Ravenscroft Andrew , Maudet Nicolas
Published: May 2011

Informal logic (IL) is an area of philosophy rich in models of communication and discourse with a heavy focus on argument and ‘dialogue games’. Computational dialectics is a maturing strand of research that is focused on implementing these dialogue games. The aim of this paper is to review research on applying IL dialogue games into human–computer dialogue design. We argue that IL dialogue games tend to have a number of attractive properties for human computer dialogue and that their computational utilization in this area has been increasing recently. Despite the strength of the case for IL, a number of important barriers need to be overcome if the potential of IL is to be fulfilled. These barriers are examined and means of overcoming them discussed.
Oxygen interacts with priming, moisture content and temperature to affect the longevity of lettuce and onion seeds
Authors: Schwember Andrés R. , Bradford Kent J.
Published: May 2011

Lettuce (Lactuca sativaL.) and onion (Allium cepaL.) seeds have relatively short longevity during storage and their germination is sensitive to environmental stress. Seed priming (controlled hydration followed by drying) can improve seed germination under stressful conditions, inducing faster and more uniform germination over broader temperature ranges, but it can also reduce seed longevity in storage. Controlled deterioration (CD) tests are often employed to study longevity by ageing seeds rapidly at elevated temperature and moisture content, and primed seeds are particularly sensitive to CD conditions. As reactive oxygen (O2) species are thought to be involved in seed deterioration, we tested whether storage under reduced O2atmospheres (0 and 2% O2) would extend the longevity of primed and non-primed seeds under low relative humidity (RH) (33% RH+37°C) and CD (75% RH+50°C) storage conditions. The longevity of both non-primed and primed lettuce seeds in low RH storage was extended by anaerobic environments, but the effect of O2was much less under CD conditions. In onion, only primed seeds exhibited a beneficial effect of low O2atmospheres under both types of ageing conditions. In both species, storage under anaerobic conditions was beneficial for extending the longevity of primed seeds, but was not able to ameliorate fully the negative effect of priming on storage life.
Surveying the Ashes: Experience from the 2007 Peloponnese Wildfires Six Months after the Disaster
Authors: Papanikolaou Vasiliki , Leon Gloria R , Kyriopoulos John , Levett Jeffrey , Pallis Eleftherios
Published: May 2011

Introduction: Major disasters disrupt the infrastructure of communities and have lasting psychological, economic, and environmental effects on the affected areas. The psychological status and community effects of the devastating 2007 wildfires on the Peloponnese Peninsula of Greece were assessed six months following the disaster.

Methods:Adult inhabitants, 18–65 years of age, living in villages affected by the wildfires were selected randomly and compared with a demographically similar group living in neighboring villages that were unaffected by the fires. Regions were chosen based on the extent of fire damage in that area. There were 409 participants in the fire group, and 391 in the control group. Participants completed a questionnaire that included the SCL-90-R symptom checklist, a subjective perception of health status, and a series of items assessing views about current problems, personal values, and trust in different institutions.

Results:The fire group scored significantly higher on psychological distress compared to the control group. Both groups viewed their health status in the previous year as better than at the present time. There were few significant differences between groups in the designation of regional problems, attitudes, and values. In the total sample, 41.6% listed unemployment, and 15.0% listed poverty as the most important problem in their region. The Church was indicated as the most trusted institution by 36.7% of the group and the Government by 13.3%. A total of 30.2% did not have a trusted institution.

Conclusions:The hardiness and resilience of the fire-impacted group was evident. However, an improvement in economic conditions is needed to maintain the health and enhance the quality of life of the population living in the Peloponnese region. This improvement likely would have a positive effect on the attitude of trust in government institutions.
Infectious Respiratory Disease Outbreaks and Pregnancy: Occupational Health and Safety Concerns of Canadian Nurses
Authors: Phillips Karen P. , O'Sullivan Tracey L. , Dow Darcie , Amaratunga Carol A.
Published: May 2011

Introduction:This paper is a report of a qualitative study of emergency and critical care nurses' perceptions of occupational response and preparedness during infectious respiratory disease outbreaks including severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and influenza.

Problem:Healthcare workers, predominantly female, face occupational and personal challenges in their roles as first responders/first receivers. Exposure to SARS or other respiratory pathogens during pregnancy represents additional occupational risk for healthcare workers.

Methods:Perceptions of occupational reproductive risk during response to infectious respiratory disease outbreaks were assessed qualitatively by five focus groups comprised of 100 Canadian nurses conducted between 2005 and 2006.

Results:Occupational health and safety issues anticipated by Canadian nurses for future infectious respiratory disease outbreaks were grouped into four major themes: (1) apprehension about occupational risks to pregnant nurses; (2) unknown pregnancy risks of anti-infective therapy/prophylaxis; (3) occupational risk communication for pregnant nurses; and (4) human resource strategies required for pregnant nurses during outbreaks. The reproductive risk perceptions voiced by Canadian nurses generally were consistent with reported case reports of pregnant women infected with SARS or emerging influenza strains. Nurses' fears of fertility risks posed by exposure to infectious agents or anti-infective therapy and prophylaxis are not well supported by the literature, with the former not biologically plausible and the latter lacking sufficient data.

Conclusions:Reproductive risk assessments should be performed for each infectious respiratory disease outbreak to provide female healthcare workers and in particular pregnant women with guidelines regarding infection control and use of anti-infective therapy and prophylaxis.
Evaluation of a Standardized Morbidity Surveillance Form for Use during Disasters Caused by Natural Hazards
Authors: Schnall Amy H. , Wolkin Amy F. , Noe Rebecca , Hausman Leslie B. , Wiersma Petra , Soetebier Karl , Cookson Susan T.
Published: May 2011

Introduction: Surveillance for health outcomes is critical for rapid responses and timely prevention of disaster-related illnesses and injuries after a disaster-causing event. The Disaster Surveillance Workgroup (DSWG) of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention developed a standardized, single-page, morbidity surveillance form, called the Natural Disaster Morbidity Surveillance Individual Form (Morbidity Surveillance Form), to describe the distribution of injuries and illnesses, detect outbreaks, and guide timely interventions during a disaster.

Problem: Traditional data sources can be used during a disaster; however, supplemental active surveillance may be required because traditional systems often are disrupted, and many persons will seek care outside of typical acute care settings. Generally, these alternative settings lack health surveillance and reporting protocols. The need for standardized data collection was demonstrated during Hurricane Katrina, as the multiple surveillance instruments that were developed and deployed led to varied and uncoordinated data collection methods, analyses, and morbidity data reporting. Active, post-event surveillance of affected populations is critical for rapid responses to minimize and prevent morbidity and mortality, allocate resources, and target public health messaging.

Methods: The CDC and the Georgia Department of Public Health (GDPH) conducted a study to evaluate a Morbidity Surveillance Form to determine its ability to capture clinical presentations. The form was completed for each patient evaluated in an emergency department (ED) during triage from 01 August, 2007 through 07 August, 2007. Data from the form were compared with the ED discharge diagnoses from electronic medical records, and kappa statistics were calculated to assess agreement.

Results: Nine hundred forty-nine patients were evaluated, 41% were male and 57% were Caucasian. According to the forms, the most common reasons for seeking treatment were acute illness, other (29%); pain (12%); and gastrointestinal illness (8%). The frequency of agreement between discharge diagnoses and the form ranged from 3 to 100%. Kappa values ranged from 0.23–1.0, with nine of the 12 categories having very good or good agreement.

Conclusion: With modifications to increase sensitivity for capturing certain clinical presentations, the Morbidity Surveillance Form can be a useful tool for capturing data needed to guide public health interventions during a disaster. A validated collection instrument for a post-disaster event facilitates rapid and standardized comparison and aggregation of data across multiple jurisdictions, thus, improving the coordination, timeliness, and accuracy of public health responses. The DSWG revised the Morbidity Surveillance Form based on information from this study.
REPLY TO PARDO: UNSAFE LEGAL KNOWLEDGE?
Authors: McBride Mark
Published: May 2011

Michael Pardo recently intriguingly argues that “the goal or aim of legal proof is knowledge (or something approximating knowledge) rather than less epistemically demanding goals.” Pardo continues, “[L]egal verdicts require more than truth and justification. . .. [T]ruth and justification also need to be connected in an appropriate way.” I do not want to contest (directly) this central claim of Pardo's. My aim here is principally to show some difficulties for the account of (legal) knowledge with which Pardo evidently operates, on which safety is a necessary condition. Highlighting these difficulties, however, puts pressure on Pardo's central claim.
IS THE IMPACT OF LABOR TAXES ON UNEMPLOYMENT ASYMMETRIC?
Authors: Berger Tino , Everaert Gerdie
Published: May 2011

This paper tests whether increases and decreases in labor taxes have an asymmetric impact on unemployment. Using a panel of 16 OECD countries over the period 1970–2005, we estimate a panel unobserved-component model to account for the fact that unemployment rates and labor taxes are nonstationary but not cointegrated. We find a positive impact of labor tax increases on unemployment in European and Nordic countries, whereas for labor tax decreases, no significant impact is found in these countries. For Anglo-Saxon countries, neither increases nor decreases in labor taxes have any impact on unemployment.
Astrobiology and habitability studies in preparation for future Mars missions: trends from investigating minerals, organics and biota
Authors: Ehrenfreund P. , Röling W.F.M. , Thiel C.S. , Quinn R. , Sephton M.A. , Stoker C. , Kotler J.M. , Direito S.O.L. , Martins Z. , Orzechowska G.E. , Kidd R.D. , van Sluis C.A , Foing B.H.
Published: May 2011

Several robotic exploration missions will travel to Mars during this decade to investigate habitability and the possible presence of life. Field research at Mars analogue sites such as desert environments can provide important constraints for instrument calibration, landing site strategies and expected life detection targets. We have characterized the mineralogy, organic chemistry and microbiology of ten selected sample sites from the Utah desert in close vicinity to the Mars Desert Research Station (MDRS) during the EuroGeoMars 2009 campaign (organized by International Lunar Exploration Working Group (ILEWG), NASA Ames and ESA ESTEC). Compared with extremely arid deserts (such as the Atacama), organic and biological materials can be identified in a larger number of samples and subsequently be used to perform correlation studies. Among the important findings of this field research campaign are the diversity in the mineralogical composition of soil samples even when collected in close proximity, the low abundances of detectable polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) and amino acids and the presence of biota of all three domains of life with significant heterogeneity. An extraordinary variety of putative extremophiles, mainly Bacteria and also Archaea and Eukarya was observed. The dominant factor in measurable bacterial abundance seems to be soil porosity and lower small (clay-sized) particle content. However, correlations between many measured parameters are difficult to establish. Field research conducted during the EuroGeoMars 2009 campaign shows that the geological history and depositional environment of the region, as well as the mineralogy influence the ability to detect compounds such as amino acids and DNA. Clays are known to strongly absorb and bind organic molecules often preventing extraction by even sophisticated laboratory methods. Our results indicate the need for further development and optimization of extraction procedures that release biological compounds from host matrices to enable the effective detection of biomarkers during future sampling campaigns on Earth and Mars.
Evaluation of phenotypic diversity and geographical variation of cultivated (Eruca sativaL.) and wild (Diplotaxis tenuifoliaL.) rocket plant
Authors: Kadri Bozokalfa M. , Eşiyok Dursun , İlbi Hülya , Kavak Süleyman , Kaygısız Aşçıoğul Tansel
Published: May 2011

Rocket (Erucaspp. andDiplotaxisspp.) is widely cultivated as a green vegetable in Mediterranean countries, Europe, United States and Brazil, but few rocket cultivars are available and limited variety selection has taken place. Plant genetic resources and germplasm are fundamental sources for plant breeding, and the assessment of the genetic diversity among germplasm accessions is useful to facilitate the more efficient use of plant genetic resources. The objective of this study was to characterize phenotypic diversity and relationships among genotypes ofErucaandDiplotaxisoriginating from 11 countries across three regions (Europe, Africa and Asia). Principal component analyses explained over 85% of total variation for 51 qualitative and quantitative agromorphological traits. Cluster analyses divided the accessions into five major clusters according to plant traits, siliqua properties and geographical origin of genotype with a few exceptions. These findings indicate a number of useful traits in the gene pool and a wide range of phenotypic variation that provides a good source of diversity for use in modernErucabreeding programmes.
Risk Assessment Techniques for Split Capital Investment Trusts
Authors: Adams A. T. , Clunie J. B.
Published: May 2011

The split capital investment trust crisis brought into focus the need for more reliable risk assessment techniques for shares in the sector. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of traditional pricing and risk description measures for split capital investment trusts (e.g. gross redemption yield, cover, hurdle rates) and ways of making these more useful. We then examine the application of traditional option pricing techniques and discuss the problems encountered in this approach. Finally, we propose the use of stochastic modelling to deal more effectively with the complexities involved in both pricing shares and understanding their risks.
Use of Dynamic Financial Analysis and Financial Condition Reporting by United Kingdom General Insurers
Authors: Shiu Y. , Moles P.
Published: May 2011

This paper presents the findings of a survey of the current Dynamic Financial Analysis (DFA)/Financial Condition Report (FCR) practices in the United Kingdom general insurance industry. An independent samples t test for non-respondent bias was conducted, and the results suggest that the respondent sample is representative of the survey population. The survey results revealed: (1) that the use of DFA techniques in the industry was limited; (2) that scenario testing was the most frequently used technique; (3) that the most common DFA application was the evaluation of reinsurance programmes; (4) that less than ten scenarios were run regularly; (5) that inflation was the most frequently modelled economic variable; (6) that the capability of asset modelling of general insurers was restricted; (7) that the most common method of liability modelling was to use all in force policies in aggregate; (8) that the most common projection periods in DFA and business planning were three years; (9) that the main reason for not using DFA techniques and producing FCR was lack of need; and (10) that views on whether a Guidance Note on FCR specifically for general insurers should be introduced differed.
On a Simple Graphical Approach to Modelling Economic Fluctuations with an Application to United Kingdom Price Inflation, 1265 to 2005
Authors: Chan W. S. , Ng M. W. , Tong H.
Published: May 2011

Structural instability in economic time series is widely reported in the literature. It is most prevalent in such series as price indices and inflation related data. Many methods have been developed for analysing and modelling structural changes in a univariate time series model. However, most of them assume that the data are generated by one fixed type (linear or non-linear) of the time series processes. This paper proposes a strategy for modelling different segments of an economic time series by different linear or non-linear models. A graphical procedure is suggested for detecting the model change points. The proposed procedure is illustrated by modelling annual United Kingdom price inflation series over the period 1265 to 2005. Stochastic modelling of inflation rates is an important topic to actuaries for dealing with long-term index linked insurance business. The proposed method suggests dividing the U.K. inflation series into four segments for modelling. Inflation projections based on the latest segment of the data are obtained through simulations. To get a better understanding of the impact of structural changes on inflation projections we also perform a forecasting study.
Merging Schemes: An Economic Analysis of Defined Benefit Pension Scheme Merger Criteria
Authors: Sutcliffe C. M. S.
Published: May 2011

The conditions under which pension schemes merge is an important issue which has been under-researched. Mergers can affect the strength of the sponsor's covenant and the balance of power between the trustees and the sponsor, as well as the deficit or the surplus of the receiving scheme and its funding ratio. This paper sets out two financial criteria to be met by any pension scheme merger: no profit or loss on merging with another scheme; and no dilution of the funding ratio. After defining a merger basis for valuing the assets and liabilities, and allowing for adjustments to the funding ratio via side receipts and payments; it is shown that, whether or not these criteria are met, depends on the state of the financial markets.
Income Inequality over the Later-Life Course: a Comparative Analysis of Seven OECD Countries
Authors: Brown R. L. , Prus S. G.
Published: May 2011

This paper examines income inequality over stages of the later-life course (age 45 and older) and systems which can be used to mitigate this inequality. Two hypotheses are tested: (1) levels of income inequality decline during old age because public benefits are more equally distributed than work income; and (2) because of the progressive nature of government benefits, countries with stronger public income security programmes are better able to reduce income inequalities during old age. The analysis is performed by comparing age groups within seven OECD countries (Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States of America) using Luxembourg Income Study data from around 2000. Both hypotheses are supported. Several conclusions are drawn from the findings.
Application of a Polygenic Model of Breast and Ovarian Cancer to Critical Illness Insurance
Authors: Macdonald A. S. , McIvor K. R.
Published: May 2011

Mutations in the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes confer very high risk of breast cancer (BC), but only account for about 25% of the observed familial clustering of BC. Antoniouet al. (2002) proposed a model which included the BRCA1 and BRCA2 genes, and a polygenic component which acted multiplicatively on the rate of onset of BC. We use this model to find premium rates for critical illness insurance: (a) given knowledge of an applicant's polygenotype; and (b) given knowledge of a family history of BC or ovarian cancer. We find that the polygenic component causes large variation in premium rates even among non-mutation carriers, therefore affecting the whole population. In some cases the polygenic contribution is protective enough to reduce or remove the additional risk of a BRCA1/2 mutation, leading to cases where it will be advantageous to disclose genetic test results which are adverse in absolute terms. Premiums based on family history are lower than those found in an earlier study which attributed all genetic BC risk to the BRCA1/2 genes.
Option Based Portfolio Insurance Revisited
Authors: Bouchaib R.
Published: May 2011

In recent years, Constant Proportion Portfolio Insurance (CPPI) has been the most widely recognised form of portfolio insurance among market practitioners, despite a lack of theoretical framework to support it. This paper presents a revised formulation of Option Based Portfolio Insurance (OBPI) and shows, through a case study, how it can be used as a structured product and applied in practice as a dynamic investment strategy for insurance and pensions funds such as with-profits funds. CPPI and the Revised Option Based Portfolio Insurance (ROBPI) technique adopted in this paper are similar in the sense that they rely on dynamic allocation between risky and risk-free assets to provide downside protection. Comparison between the two methods shows that ROPBI is more efficient and forward looking, giving more information about downside risk and producing less volatile asset allocation, which reduces transaction costs and any market impact.
Some Finite Time Ruin Problems
Authors: Dickson D. C. M.
Published: May 2011

In the classical risk model, we use probabilistic arguments to write down expressions in terms of the density function of aggregate claims for joint density functions involving the time to ruin, the deficit at ruin and the surplus prior to ruin. We give some applications of these formulae in the cases when the individual claim amount distribution is exponential and Erlang(2).
A Dynamic Family History model Of Hereditary Nonpolyposis Colorectal Cancer and Critical Illness Insurance
Authors: Lu L. , Macdonald A. S. , Waters H. R. , Yu F.
Published: May 2011

Hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) is characterised by the familial aggregation of cancer of the colon and rectum (CRC). It may be caused by any of five mutations in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes or by non-genetic factors, such as life style. However, it accounts for only about 2% of CRC, which is a very common cancer. Previous actuarial models, of diseases with only genetic causes, assumed that a family history of the disease shows mutations to be present, but this is not true of HNPCC. This is a significant limitation, since the best information available to an underwriter (especially if the use of genetic test results is banned) is likely to be knowledge of a family history of CRC. We present a Markov model of CRC and HNPCC, which includes the presence of a family history of CRC as a state, and estimate its intensities allowing for MMR genotype. Using this we find the MMR mutation probabilities for an insurance applicant with a family history of CRC. Our model greatly simplifies the intensive computational burden of finding such probabilities by integrating over complex models of hidden family structure. We estimate the costs of critical illness insurance given the applicant's genotype or the presence of a family history. We then consider what the cost of adverse selection might be, if insurers are unable to use genetic tests or family history information. We also consider the effect of using alternative definitions of a family history in underwriting.
Health Insurance, Genetic Testing and Adverse Selection
Authors: MacMinn R. D. , Brockett P. L. , Raeburn J. A.
Published: May 2011

The implications of genetic testing information availability for society, medicine, employment, and individual privacy rights have generated much political debate, legislation and academic research. Part of this debate centres on the ethical and economic considerations resultant from this expanded knowledge, particularly for insurance practices. Within insurance economics, the possibility of adverse selection has been debated and the potential for a ban on an insurer's use of genetic testing has been studied with respect to whether or not such a ban might actually result in insurance market failure due to this adverse selection. Studies have examined the issue using expected loss cost (actuarial or ‘fair’) pricing models, and have not considered either equilibrium (supply and demand) price setting as is present in markets, or the potentially swamping effect of background health care risks facing the insured, having nothing to do with any particular genetic mutation. Here we construct a supply and demand function with both high and low risk individuals in the presence of background health care cost risks, and derive an equilibrium price and market composition to determine whether, if genetic information is allowed for individuals, but this same information is not shared with insurers: (1) is market failure inevitable? (it is not if the background risk is sufficiently high relative to potential genetic risk costs); (2) will equilibrium prices result in all low risk insured exiting the market? (not in the presence of significant background risk); and (3) how much would prices increase and market sales decrease if insurers do not have the same genetic information as the insured? (prices will increase, but not necessarily very much in the presence of background risk, and not as much as that previously estimated in the insurance literature).
Mortality Modelling and Forecasting: a Review of Methods
Authors: Booth H. , Tickle L.
Published: May 2011

Continuing increases in life expectancy beyond previously-held limits have brought to the fore the critical importance of mortality forecasting. Significant developments in mortality forecasting since 1980 are reviewed under three broad approaches: expectation, extrapolation and explanation. Expectation is not generally a good basis for mortality forecasting, as it is subjective; expert expectations are invariably conservative. Explanation is restricted to certain causes of death with known determinants. Decomposition by cause of death poses problems associated with the lack of independence among causes and data difficulties. Most developments have been in extrapolative forecasting, and make use of statistical methods rather than models developed primarily for age-specific graduation. Methods using two-factor models (age-period or age-cohort) have been most successful. The two-factor Lee–Carter method, and, in particular, its variants, have been successful in terms of accuracy, while recent advances have improved the estimation of forecast uncertainty. Regression-based (GLM) methods have been less successful, due to nonlinearities in time. Three-factor methods are more recent; the Lee–Carter age-period-cohort model appears promising. Specialised software has been developed and made available. Research needs include further comparative evaluations of methods in terms of the accuracy of the point forecast and its uncertainty, encompassing a wide range of mortality situations.
A Model for Ischaemic Heart Disease and Stroke I: The Model
Authors: Chatterjee T. , Macdonald A. S. , Waters H. R.
Published: May 2011

We construct a stochastic model of an individual's lifetime that includes diagnosis with ischaemic heart disease and stroke and also the development of the major risk factors for these conditions: hypercholesterolaemia, hypertension, diabetes and obesity. Smoking, another major risk factor, is treated deterministically. Mathematically, the model is a continuous time, finite state space Markov process, with the individual's age playing the rôle of time. The model is parameterised using data from the Framingham Heart Study, with parameter values adjusted so that the model is appropriate for UK conditions in the early 21st century. The model has been designed so that it can be used to quantify the effects of:

(i) trends, in particular increasing prevalence of obesity.

(ii) changes in behaviour, in particular smoking patterns, and

(iii) treatments, in particular statins for hypercholesterolaemia.

These applications are covered in two accompanying papers.
A Model for Ischaemic Heart Disease and Stroke II: Modelling Obesity
Authors: Chatterjee T. , Macdonald A. S. , Waters H. R.
Published: May 2011

This is the second in a series of three papers. In the first paper we describe a comprehensive stochastic model of an individual's lifetime that includes diagnosis with ischaemic heart disease and stroke and also the development of the major risk factors for these conditions. The third paper is devoted to some applications of this model.

In this paper we discuss the effect of BMI on diabetes, heart disease and mortality and we use data from the Framingham Heart Study and the Health Survey for England to develop stochastic models for changes in an individual's BMI. Some of these models incorporate time trends leading to increasing prevalence of obesity. We then use these models to investigate how future expected lifetime and future expected healthy lifetime depend on BMI.

Our conclusions are that if the prevalence of obesity increases, even to an extreme degree, then the prevalence of diabetes and hypertension in the population will increase, possibly to a significant extent, but the prevalence of heart disease and stroke will increase by a much smaller amount and the effect on expected future lifetime will be small.
Modelling Income Protection Claim Termination Rates by Cause of Sickness I: Recoveries
Authors: Ling S. Y. , Waters H. R. , Wilkie A. D.
Published: May 2011

In this paper we present methods and results for the estimation and modelling of the recovery intensity for Income Protection (IP) insurance claims, allowing for different causes of claim. We use UK data supplied by the Continuous Mortality Investigation relating to claims paid in the years 1975 to 2002, inclusive. Each claim is classified by one of 70 possible causes according to ICD8.

We group causes where appropriate, and then use the Cox model and generalised linear models to model the recovery intensity.

In two subsequent papers we complete our modelling of IP claim termination rates by discussing the modelling of the mortality of IP claimants.

There are two main reasons why it is useful to incorporate cause of sickness in the modelling of IP claim terminations:

(i) The cause of sickness will be known to the insurer for a claim in the course of payment. A reserve can be set more accurately for such a claim if a model of the termination rates appropriate for this cause is available.

(ii) Different causes of claim will become more or less significant over time. For example, tuberculosis may have been an important cause of sickness in the past, but is likely to be far less significant now; the swine flu pandemic starting in 2009 is likely to have a significant effect on observed aggregate claim termination rates, skewing them towards higher rates at shorter durations. Information about trends in morbidity, together with a model of termination rates by cause of claim, allows future aggregate claim termination rates to be predicted more accurately, reserves to be set at more appropriate levels and policies to be priced more accurately.

One of the covariates included in our models for recovery intensities is Calendar Year. Aggregate recovery intensities have been decreasing over the period considered, 1975 to 2002, and this is generally reflected in the models for recovery intensities by cause of sickness. However, when these intensities are projected for years beyond 2002, the results are not always plausible.
Mini-KiSS – ein multimodales Gruppentherapieprogramm für Eltern von Kleinkindern mit Schlafstörungen
Authors: Schlarb Angelika Anita , Brandhorst Isabel , Hautzinger Martin
Published: May 2011

Fragestellung: Schlafstörungen im Kindesalter neigen zur Chronifizierung und gehen häufig mit elterlicher Belastung einher. Daher war das Ziel dieser Pilotstudie die Entwicklung und Evaluation eines multimodalen Trainingsprogramms für Eltern von Kindern zwischen 0.5 und 4 Jahren mit Schlafstörungen (Mini-KiSS). Die Annahme war, dass sich die Schlafproblematik und die elterliche Befindlichkeit durch ein solches strukturiertes Gruppentraining signifikant verbessern lassen. Methodik: In der Pilotstudie wurde ein prä-post-Testdesign ohne Kontrollgruppe durchgeführt. Es nahmen n = 17 Eltern von Kindern zwischen 0.5 und 4 Jahren mit Schlafstörungen nach ICSD-II an der Untersuchung teil. Jede der sechs Sitzungen wurde evaluiert, das Schlafverhalten der Kinder wurde mittels Schlaftagebuch sowie CBCL erhoben. Emotionale und verhaltensbezogene Beeinträchtigungen des Kindes wurden anhand der CBCL gemessen. Die elterliche Befindlichkeit anhand der SCL-90-R. Ergebnisse: Es zeigte sich eine hohe Akzeptanz des Mini-KiSS-Trainings und eine sehr positiv eingeschätzte Durchführbarkeit. Die Schlafprobleme der Kinder, wie beispielsweise die Anzahl des nächtlichen Erwachens, die Dauer der nächtlichen Wachzeit sowie das Schlafen im Elternbett, nahmen signifikant ab. Die psychische Befindlichkeit der Kinder sowie der Eltern verbesserte sich signifikant. Darüber hinaus zeigten die Mütter eine Verbesserung hinsichtlich der Depressivität. Schlussfolgerungen: Mit dieser Pilotstudie konnte gezeigt werden, dass das multimodale Kurzzeitinterventionsprogramm Mini-KiSS sehr gut durchführbar ist und akzeptiert wird. Das Programm erwies sich als effektiv zur Reduktion der kindlichen Schlafproblematik.
Verhaltensauffälligkeiten von Grundschulkindern
Authors: Döpfner Manfred , Kinnen Claudia , Weber Katja N. , Plück Julia
Published: May 2011

Zusammenfassung. Die deutschsprachige Fassung der Teacher’s Report Form (TRF) erfasst Verhaltens- und emotionale Auffälligkeiten bei fünf- bis 18-Jährigen. Studienziel ist es, die Testgüte in einer Feldstichprobe aus Grundschulen zu überprüfen, Alters- und Geschlechtseffekte zu untersuchen sowie einen Vergleich mit den Skalenwerten der US-Stichprobe herzustellen. Fragebögen von 529 Schülern, die an 32 Grundschulen im Kölner Stadtgebiet erhoben wurden, konnten ausgewertet werden. Die Stichprobe bestand aus 54% Jungen; die vier Grundschulklassen waren mit ähnlichen Anteilen repräsentiert. Die internen Konsistenzen waren überwiegend zufrieden stellend. Die gefundenen Geschlechtseffekte legen eine geschlechtsspezifische Normierung wie im amerikanischen Original nahe. Im Vergleich zur US-Normstichprobe schätzten deutsche Lehrer ihre Schüler signifikant auffälliger ein. Das Verfahren hat sich in dieser ersten Untersuchung an einer Feldstichprobe hinsichtlich der internen Konsistenz der Skalen weitgehend bewährt. Eine Anwendung in der klinischen Praxis ist daher möglich. Eine Überprüfung weiterer Reliabilitätsmaße sowie eine deutsche Normierung sind notwendig.