bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Enhancement of Catastrophic Positive Cloud to Ground Lightning in recent years over Maharashtra (India): Role of Dust Aerosols
Authors: Gangane Abhijeet , Pawar Sunil , Priyadarshini Prajna , Gopalakrishnan Venkatachalam
Published: March 2024

Many studies have shown that aerosols can influence microphysical processes inside thunderclouds that could affect charge-generation processes. Cloud to Ground (CG) lightning data from Ground-based observations (IITM-LLN) over the State of Maharashtra, India, from 2014 to 2023, have been analyzed here to study the percentage and physical mechanism associated with the enhancement of catastrophic Positive CG in total CG lightning. Our analysis shows that the average positive CG percentage remains above 25% during the monsoon (July-September) and post-monsoon (October-November). This increased percentage of positive CG is attributed to elevated dust aerosol concentration over the study region during the monsoon and post-monsoon periods. An enormous amount of dust can be seen during the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) over the Arabian Desert and neighborhood extending up to the western Indian (Maharashtra) region. Dust aerosol intrusion into the thunderstorm acts as Ice nuclei (IN) as well as Cloud Condensation Nuclei (CCN) and can influence charge separation processes inside the cloud. In recent years, we observed an enhancement of Dust AOT over Maharashtra state, indicating that the increasing trend in Positive CG lightning is closely linked to the transport of desert dust from the Middle East and elevated aerosol content during the post-monsoon season. Here, we propose that these high concentrations of dust aerosols near the cloud base acting as IN produce a high concentration of ice crystals in the lower portion of the cloud, which can form a strong positive charge region in the lower part of the mixed-phase region by non-inductive charging mechanism. This strong positive charge region in the lower portion of the mixed phase region may be responsible for the observed increased percentage of positive CG over the study region.
SDQ (Seismic Data Quality): a Python project for seismo-accelerometric data quality check
Authors: Varchetta Fabio , Massa Marco , Puglia Rodolfo , Danececk Peter , Rao Sandro , Mandiello Alfonso , Piccinini Davide
Published: March 2024

In recent years, significant attention has been devoted both to seismic data processing and data quality procedures. At the Italian scale, EIDA Italia (https://eida.ingv.it/it/getdata) and ISMDq (http://ismd.mi.ingv.it/quality.php) represent the web portals currently available for checking seismic data quality. In this work, we introduce the SDQ (Seismic Data Quality) project, a new open-source Python-based tool, designed for the automatic data quality check of sismo-accelerometric stations considering both selected earthquakes and continuous data streams. Regarding earthquake data, the quality of individual waveforms is assessed by initially comparing – at first - the ground motion parameters derived from co-located accelerometers and velocimeters. SDQ operates by using a simple external input file including the INGV event-id and both station and network codes. Event information, station metadata, and waveforms are obtained from FDSN (https://www.fdsn.org) web services (https://www.fdsn.org/webservices/). Each single waveform is assigned to a quality class ranging from A (high quality) to D (data to be rejected) based on time- and frequency-dependent algorithms. Classification thresholds were empirically obtained by combining visual signal inspection and statistical analysis considering 15.000 waveforms recorded in Italy from 2012 to 2023 by IV (National Seismic Network, https://www.fdsn.org/networks/detail/IV/) and MN (MedNet network, https://www.fdsn.org/networks/detail/MN/) sismo-accelerometric stations. Concerning continuous data streams, mini-seed recording signals are analyzed at each selected station to set empirical thresholds considering several data metrics (i.e. frequency-dependent Root Mean Square, RMS, and Power Spectral Density, PSD) and data availability information (i.e. % gap and data availability, sum of gaps, maximum gap etc.) to build a station-quality archive. Users can select and build target time histories for each network, station, data stream and single ground motion component related to the selected input data included in a local mini-seed archive representing the starting point of the procedure. SDQ finally provides summary tables for both earthquake and continuous data, collecting all relevant parameters for each processed waveform and data stream, along with explanatory text files (log and warning files), allowing the user to better evaluate the results. Although SDQ is currently under development, now it is freely available and  downloadable at  https://gitlab.rm.ingv.it/EIDA/quality/sdq
Sources and seasonality of black carbon in Europe
Authors: Eckhardt Sabine , Thompson Rona , Evangeliou Nikolaos , Pisso Ignacio , Cassiani Massimo , Yttri Karl Espen , Platt Stephen M.
Published: March 2024

Black Carbon, emitted during incomplete combustion, is harmful to human health and also an important climate forcer with a dominating warming component. When deposited on snow it decreases albedo and leads to early melting, while in the atmosphere it can absorb radiation and lead to warming. The emission sources are both anthropogenic and natural. In winter anthropogenic sources, like domestic burning are important, while during summertime black carbon from wild fires plays a major role.Black carbon concentrations are derived from observations of the aerosol absorption coefficient and then converted to an equivalent black carbon concentration and recorded at over 20 sites in Europe. However, the measurements on these sites are not homogeneous, as different mass absorption coefficients should be applied depending on location and season. For the years 2017-2022 we obtained a unified dataset of hourly black carbon concentrations for Europe. A statistical method (a non negative matrix factorization based on different wavelengths) is used to split the observed black carbon into a fraction originating from fossil fuel and from biomass burning sources. The Lagrangian transport model FLEXPART is used in combination with the ECLIPSE and GFED emission inventories to model BC concentrations for the European sites and analyse the source regions for each source type.By comparing the observations and modelled concentrations  we are able to assess the correctness of the emission inventories, and using statistical optimization we can provide an updated emission estimate. We will present the sources and their seasonality and point to weaknesses in the emission inventories.
Evaluating polydisperse particles transport and clogging in porous media during artificial groundwater recharge by pore-scale observation and column experiments
Authors: Niu Shuyao , Shu Longcang , Zou Zhike , Yu Lei , Li Yalong , Chen Yuan , Wang Zhe
Published: March 2024

Artificial groundwater recharge utilizing stormwater is an effective tool to reduce urban flooding and artificially increase groundwater resources. However, porous media clogging due to the solid polydisperse particles carried in stormwater severely restricts the application of recharge technology. In addition, solid particles play a crucial role in aquifer contamination. If particles are easily transport in groundwater flows, they can act as contaminant carriers to facilitate the movement of contaminants. Conversely, if particles cause porous media clogging, they can form barriers that prevent contaminant migration. While the transport and clogging mechanism of particles has been explored by many macroscopic physical experiments, the intrinsic connection between the deposition behavior of particles in pore scale and the macroscopic presentation of clogging phenomenon remains unclear. In this study, laboratory-scale sand column experiments were combined with scanning electron microscopy (SEM) observations to explore the effect of polydisperse particle size on the mechanism of particle transport and clogging. The median particle sizes (dp50) of the polydisperse particles used in the experiments were 0.66, 4.05, and 11.83 μm, respectively. The interaction energy between particles and porous media grains was calculated using XDLVO theory, indicating that the experiments were conducted under unfavorable condition. The sand column experiments revealed that the influence of large particles on the porous media permeability is limited to shallow layers, and small particles are more likely to transport to deeper layers. Particles with dp50=0.66 μm were tend to form aggregates, reducing particle recovery rate and promoting clogging. The pore-scale observations illustrated that the vast majority of the particles are preferentially deposited in concave regions of the media grain surface. The larger the particle size, the higher the proportion of deposition in concave regions. Due to the different transport mechanisms of particles in pore space, the ratio of dp50 to porous media grain size is not the only basis for identifying the type of clogging. The results proved that the particles with dp50=0.66 μm can form mixed clogging faster than particles with dp50=4.05 μm. The proposed results provide a reference for the theoretical study of the particle transport and deposition mechanism, the prevention and control of aquifer pollution, as well as the development of more effective artificial groundwater recharge scheme.
Continental-scale β diversity of bacteria and fungi vary differentially with soil pH in forests
Authors: Huang Changjiang , Zhou Xuhui
Published: March 2024

Abstract:  The soil microbiota is crucial for regulating biogeochemical cycles, including soil carbon (C) dynamics and nutrient cycling. However, how climate, plants, and soil properties influence the microbiome in forests at a continental scale remains unclear, hampering us from better understanding forest C-climate change feedback. Here, we investigated the spatial patterns of microbial diversity across China’s forests and explored the factors controlling microbial β diversity and network complexity. Our results showed that bacterial and fungal β diversity were strongly influenced by soil pH and climate. To further investigate the environmental preference of the microbial networks, we classified the zero-radius operational taxonomic units (zOTUs) into five groups ranging from acidic to alkaline soils. Co-occurrence network analysis revealed that the topological structure of the bacterial network (e.g., edge and degree) increased with pH and had a negative relationship with β diversity but not with fungal diversity. Soil fungi exhibit greater β diversity with network complexity (i.e., degree and betweenness) than bacteria at pH < 5.1 and vice versa in neutral and alkaline soils (pH > 5.5). Within the pH range of 5.1-5.5, the bacteria-fungi network exhibited the most increased network complexity but the lowest fungal β diversity, with significant positive correlations found between fungal β diversity and soil properties. Furthermore, 46 bacterial core species were identified and shown to be significantly correlated with soil pH. These findings highlight the critical role of soil pH in driving soil microbial β diversity across China’s forests and reveal the effects of pH thresholds on changes in the soil microbial network and core species.Keywords: Bacterial diversity, fungal diversity, network analysis, forest 
Enhancement of the NEARBY automated asteroid detection platform with a machine learning-based classifier
Authors: Bacu Victor
Published: March 2024

The detection of asteroids involves the processing of sequences of astronomical images. The main challenges arise from the huge volume of data that should be processed in a reasonable amount of time. To address this, we developed the NEARBY platform [1], [2] for efficiently automatic detection of asteroids in sequence of astronomical images. This platform encompasses multidimensional data processing capabilities, human-verified visual analysis, and cloud-based adaptability. This paper outlines the enhancements we have made to this automated asteroid detection system by integrating a machine learning-based classifier known as the CERES module. The integration of the CERES module [3] into the NEARBY platform substantially enhances its performance by automatically reducing the number of false positive detections. Consequently, this leads to a more reliable and efficient system for asteroid identification, while also reducing the time and effort required by human experts to validate detected candidates (asteroids). The experiments highlight these improvements and their significance in advancing the field of asteroid tracking. Additionally, we explore the applicability of the asteroid classification model, initially trained using images from a specific telescope, across different telescopes.Acknowledgment:This work was supported by a grant of the Romanian Ministry of Education and Research, CCCDI - UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P2-2.1-PED-2019-0796, within PNCDI III. (the development of the dataset and CNN models)
This research was partially supported by the project 38 PFE in the frame of the programme PDI-PFE-CDI 2021.
References:Bacu, V., Sabou, A., Stefanut, T., Gorgan, D., Vaduvescu, O., NEARBY platform for detecting asteroids in astronomical images using cloud-based containerized applications, 2018 IEEE 14th International Conference on Intelligent Computer Communication and Processing (ICCP), pp. 371-376
Stefanut, T., Bacu, V., Nandra, C., Balasz, D., Gorgan, D., Vaduvescu, O., NEARBY Platform: Algorithm for automated asteroids detection in astronomical images, 2018 IEEE 14th International Conference on Intelligent Computer Communication and Processing (ICCP), pp. 365-369
Bacu, V.; Nandra, C.; Sabou, A.; Stefanut, T.; Gorgan, D. Assessment of Asteroid Classification Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks. Aerospace 2023, 10, 752. https://doi.org/10.3390/aerospace10090752
 
Pseudo-prospective forecasting of induced and natural seismicity in the Hengill geothermal field
Authors: Ritz Vanille , Mizrahi Leila , Clasen Repollés Victor , Hjörleifsdóttir Vala , Rinaldi Antonio Pio , Wiemer Stefan
Published: March 2024

The Hengill geothermal field, located in southwest Iceland, is host to the Hellisheiði power plant, with its 40+ production wells and 17 reinjection wells. Located on a tectonically active area, the field experiences both natural and induced seismicity associated to the power plant operations. To better manage the risk posed by this seismicity, the development of robust and informative forecasting models is paramount.In this study, we compare the forecasting performance of a model developed for fluid-induced seismicity (the Seismogenic Index model) and a class of well-established statistical models (Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence). The pseudo-prospective experiment is set up with 14 months of initial calibration and daily forecasts for a year. In the timeframe of this experiment, a dense broadband network was in place in Hengill, allowing us to rely on a high quality relocated seismic catalogue. The seismicity in the geothermal field is characterised by four main clusters, associated with the two reinjection areas, one production area an area with surface geothermal manifestations but where no operations are taking place. We show that the models are generally well suited to forecast induced seismicity, despite some limitations, and that a hybrid ETAS  model accounting for fluid forcing has some potential in complex regions with natural and fluid-induced seismicity.
GHG-KIT project: Inverse modelling of Vienna’s CH4 and CO2 emissions using in-situ and remote observations
Authors: Hoheisel Antje , Maurer Christian , Mulder Marie D. , Redl Peter , Schneider Stefan , Chen Jia , Luther Andreas , Matthews Bradley , Watzinger Andrea , Meeran Kathiravan , Hirtl Marcus
Published: March 2024

The Austrian Flagship Project “GHG-KIT: Keep it traceable” aims to prototype an Austrian, Earth Observation-Integrated GHG measurement and modelling system, which can support national GHG emission monitoring. Among other aims, the project is working toward an Austrian inverse modelling framework to produce top-down estimates of national and subnational CO2 and CH4 fluxes that are independent of the current bottom-up system of the Austrian GHG inventory.This conference contribution will present the GHG-KIT progress on inverse modelling of subnational CO2 and CH4 emissions, using Vienna as a case study. Vienna is the most populated city in Austria with around 2 million inhabitants, corresponding to slightly more than a fifth of the total Austrian population. To estimate the GHG emissions in Vienna the inversion framework FLEXINVERT is used. The atmospheric back trajectories for GHG measurements carried out in Vienna are calculated using the Lagrangian dispersion model FLEXPART-WRF, which is driven by WRF meteorology. The a priori fluxes of GHGs, used in FLEXINVERT, are prepared using WRF-GHG and are based on data from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), among others. WRF-GHG is a Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version that is coupled with chemistry modules as well as the GHG flux module and considers urban building features. Atmospheric ground-based observations of CO2 and CH4 mole fractions from the Vienna Urban Carbon Laboratory are included in the inverse modelling. These include in-situ observations from a tall-tower, as well as total column measurements at four locations from a 2022 summer campaign performed by the Technical University of Munich. Furthermore, the usability of satellite measurements over Vienna as an additional observation constraint will be investigated. This includes GHGSat measurements from Vienna that are carried out as part of the GHG-KIT project, as well as synthetic or possibly authentic observations from satellite missions (such as CO2M and MethaneSAT) that will be launched during the course of this project or shortly thereafter.
The role of proglacial rock glaciers in redistributing glacial meltwater
Authors: Charonnat Bastien , Baraer Michel , Masse-Dufresne Janie , Valence Eole , McKenzie Jeffrey , Monty Chloé , Wang Kaiyuan , Devoie Elise
Published: March 2024

The deglaciation of high mountain ranges is leading to the expansion of proglacial areas, which encompasses diverse permafrost and ground ice landforms. These features exert an increased influence on the hydrology and hydrogeology of alpine catchments as glaciers retreat. Despite the heightened attention received by rock glaciers for the last decades, their role within the broader hydrological and hydrogeological valley system remains understudied. Previous studies have highlighted rock glaciers’ ability to act as hydrological storage and to buffer water release from alpine catchments. However, there is a lack of studies about their ability to modify the groundwater flow paths in a proglacial valley system and to redistribute glacial meltwater. This study addresses this knowledge gap by investigating how the rock glacier redistributes glacial meltwater in a study catchment.Shar Shäw Tágà (Grizzly Creek) is a subarctic glaciated catchment located in the St. Elias Mountains, Yukon (Canada) that experiences significant glacial retreat. A non-relict rock glacier at the outlet of a glacial sub-catchment obstructs the valley thalweg, with only a few springs exhibiting minimal discharge from its front. These minor springs contrast remarkably with the substantial discharge observed at higher elevations above the rock glacier.Water level, water temperature and electrical conductivity variables were monitored in identified springs throughout the summer 2022. Results were compared to meteorological data with wavelet coherence analysis to determine the springs’ origins and drivers. Additionally, multiple sampling campaigns were conducted in the summers of 2022 and 2023 to analyze major ions concentrations and water stable isotopes signatures in the catchment’s streams.The results reveal that the rock glacier serves as a critical obstacle and deflector to subsurface meltwater, either forcing upstream meltwater to penetrate deeper into the subsurface, or redirecting lateral subsurface flow to resurge at its front, forcing part of the alluvial floodplain shallow aquifer to reach the surface.
While rock glaciers are often considered potential water reservoirs, this study illuminates their dual role as critical deflectors for shallow subsurface flow in proglacial valley systems. They can impede glacial meltwater flow, originating alternative pathways toward deep aquifers or lowlands’ surface waters. Such findings nuance the ability of rock glaciers to store and release glacial meltwater, as they can deflect shallow subsurface flow. Additionally, it shows that rock glaciers can force infiltration and resurgence of water at specific locations, affecting the broader mountain hydrogeological system. Furthermore, it enforces their critical role in the future of water resources supplied by high mountain ranges in a deglaciation context.
Wildfires, floods, droughts, and the climate crisis: can art narrate the risk?
Authors: Visigalli Rita , Alessandri Barbara , Mantini Marina , Palermo Andrea , Polo Lara , Romano Anna
Published: March 2024

In the dialogue that the scientific community is called upon to have with society, art becomes an extraordinarily powerful tool for conveying information and knowledge. Through empathy and emotions, it can indeed help introduce and raise awareness among viewers about current challenges, the issues confronting the scientific world, the means it employs, and the results it achieves. It is no coincidence that numerous initiatives are flourishing everywhere, in various research fields, where the scientific message is, at least in part, conveyed through art. Environmental themes lend themselves well to this synergy. Throughout history, humanity has explored nature through its representation, among other methods. Natural phenomena have thus been well represented over time (think of the works of William Turner, Monet's winter landscapes, the Great Wave off Kanagawa, and so on). However, it is more challenging to find examples related to the study of risk management and mitigation. This is an incredibly topical field of research, exacerbated by the climate crisis, where floods, wildfires, and droughts are becoming more intense and frequent in various parts of the world, making it more urgent than ever to respond effectively, protecting communities and assets from these challenges. As part of its information and awareness-raising activities, CIMA Research Foundation has been addressing these themes through artistic means for several years, turning art into a vehicle for conveying messages and engaging society. Paintings and installations, photographs, and theatrical pieces have become a way to narrate drought, floods, loss of biodiversity, and the climate crisis to a broad audience of both young and adult individuals, transforming science into art and art into science. All initiatives and materials are collected on a website, making them as accessible and user-friendly as possible. Following this approach, we also contributed to the drafting of the guidelines for the development of the Museum of Science and Technology of Addis Ababa, where artistic language and participatory activities do not replace scientific knowledge but become a fundamental support. Can art help us engage society on these pressing and complex issues? Can we translate knowledge into awareness and, subsequently, action? Through the activities carried out by our "Art and Science" project, we aim to address these questions.
Soil compaction signatures on electromagnetic and DC-current geophysics
Authors: Carrera Alberto , Peruzzo Luca , Cassiani Giorgio , Morari Francesco
Published: March 2024

Monitoring soil structure is of paramount importance due to its key role in the critical zone as the foundation of terrestrial life. Variations in the arrangement of soil components significantly influence its hydro-mechanical properties, and therefore its impact on the surrounding ecosystem. Soil compaction, resulting from inappropriate agricultural practices, not only affects soil ecological functions by reducing soil porosity and water infiltration, but also decreases the yields spoiling the socio-economic aspect.In this study, we compared the ability of electrical and electromagnetic geophysical methods, i.e. Electrical Resistivity Tomography and Frequency-domain Electromagnetic Method, to monitor the effects of compaction on agricultural soil. The objective is to highlight the electro-magnetic response caused by plastic deformation of the soil generated by both a super-heavy vehicle and the usual interrows surface compaction generated by tractor traffic for common practices. The survey was conducted both on a small scale, covering an area of 1.5 hectares, and in detail on individual targeted transects. This allowed to capture the 2-D and 3-D spatial heterogeneity that is often difficult to obtain with punctual and invasive traditional methods.This work aims to contribute to the methodological optimization of agro-geophysical acquisitions and data processing, so as to obtain accurate soil models through non-invasive approach. Results, validated with traditional soil characterization techniques (i.e. penetration resistance, bulk density and volumetric water content on collected samples), show pros & cons of both techniques and how differences in their spatial resolution heavily influence the ability to characterize compacted areas with good confidence.
Towards the assimilation of dual-polarization radar data
Authors: Bardachova Tatsiana , Ramezani Ziarani Maryam , Janjic Tijana
Published: March 2024

The forecast accuracy of numerical weather prediction models is strongly determined by the precision of the initial conditions, especially for storm and convective-scale weather prediction. Since radars allow to capture the internal structure and important microphysical and dynamical processes in convective systems, they are crucial instrument for improvement of weather forecasts on these scales. Dual-polarization radar, in contrast to a prevalent single-polarization radar, also provides information on the types and sizes of hydrometeor particles. As a result, polarimetric radar data (PRD) proves to be a valuable data source for data assimilation. However, direct assimilation of PRD is not used in current operational non-hydrostatic convection-permitting numerical models. This is associated with several difficulties, such as model error estimation, which require further study.The current focus of our study is to directly assimilate PRD in an idealized setup. For that purpose, observation system simulation experiments (OSSEs) were performed that simulate the development of a long-lived supercell using the ICON model with two-moment microphysics scheme. In OSSE, the Kilometer-scale Ensemble Data Assimilation (KENDA) system, which comprises the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) was used. The new polarimetric radar forward operator EMVORADO-POL developed at Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) was incorporated in the setup. The first steps towards the direct assimilation of differential reflectivity, in addition to non-polarimetric variables, have been implemented and will be presented. Proper thresholds and model equivalents of polarimetric data were examined. Results were compared to reference experiments assimilating non-polarimetric variables such as reflectivity and radial velocity.
The response of mixed-phase and ice clouds to volcanic eruptions- A model case study of the Raikoke eruption 2019
Authors: Sebisch Melina , Hoose Corinna , Bruckert Julia , Hoshyaripour Gholamali
Published: March 2024

Aerosol-cloud-interactions are one of the major causes of uncertainty in the radiative forcing as presented in the IPCC report WG1 (2021). The aerosols in the atmosphere can act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) or ice nucleating particles (INPs) and affect cloud properties. A quantification of the impact of aerosols on these properties is difficult since clouds are also strongly affected by synoptic conditions.Volcanic eruptions are an ideal testbed as they cause a local perturbance of aerosol concentrations in the atmosphere. The emitted aerosols such as SO2 reacting to sulfuric acid or ash can act as CCNs or INPs respectively. By comparing a simulation with and without the volcanic eruption the impact can be quantified directly. The simulation with an eruption can be validated by comparison to observations, e.g. satellite data.In the presented work, the eruption of the Raikoke volcano in 2019 is simulated using the ICOsahedral Nonhydrostatic model (ICON) and the module for Aerosols and Reactive Trace gases (ART). The model is run in limited area mode on a R2B10 grid with about 2.5 km horizontal resolution for a time span of 3 days. The volcanic plume is simulated using a setup provided by J. Bruckert. During this time, the plume overlaps with cloud systems associated with a low-pressure system east of the volcano. The simulations with and without the eruption are compared to observational data to improve the implemented interaction mechanisms between cloud particles and volcanic aerosols with a focus on ice nucleation due to volcanic ash particles. Additionally, a new parameterization for volcanic ash formulated by Umo et al. (2021) based on laboratory experiments is implemented and compared to the commonly used ice nucleation parameterizations for mineral dust by e.g. Ullrich et al. (2017). First results of an offline calculation of the ice nucleation active site show a decrease in the ice nucleating efficiency for the parameterization for volcanic ash. These first results on the interactions between the volcanic ash plume and mixed-phase and ice clouds will be presented.
Understanding and quantifying recent and potential future record-shattering extremes
Authors: Fischer Erich
Published: March 2024

Recent land and marine heatwaves, extreme precipitation events and even monthly global mean temperature anomalies shattered previous observed records by large margins and reached intensities that many would have conceived impossible based on observations so far.Here, I first demonstrate how in recent decades the frequency of such record-breaking and record-shattering extremes strongly deviates from expectations in a stationary climate and demonstrate how the current high rate of forced warming contributes to the current high occurrence record-shattering extremes. I further identify and discuss the extremes of the last two decades with the highest record margins.Furthermore, I review different ways of estimating the probability and potential intensity of future record-shattering extremes. Different approaches including statistical approaches, such as Statistical Weather Generators or the use of Generalized Extreme Value distributions with process-based covariates as well as climate model-based approaches such as initialized hindcasts, single-model initial condition large ensembles and ensemble boosting have been proposed to estimate the potential intensity of future record-shattering extremes. I review the strengths and weaknesses of these approaches and argue that combining different lines of evidence is crucial to increase confidence in such estimates.Finally, I will discuss how some of these methods also reveal how physical mechanisms differ between very extreme events and more moderate ones, and how they help to evaluate potential process-based constraints to upper bounds of the intensity of future record-shattering extremes.
Forty years of geochemical data  at Campi Flegrei hydrothermal system
Authors: Chiodini Giovanni , Caliro Stefano , Cardellini Carlo , Avino Rosario , Bini Giulio , Carandente Antonio , Cuoco Emilio , Minopoli Carmine , Ricci Tullio , Rufino Francesco , Santi Alessandro , Sciarra Alessandra , Tamburello Giancarlo
Published: March 2024

The systematic sampling of the main fumaroles of Solfatara (Campi Flegrei, Italy) started during the bradyseismic crisis of 1983-84. In the late 1990s, diffusive CO2 emissions measurements also became part of the monitoring activity through systematic campaigns. In these 40 years of investigations almost unique databases were created including thousands of chemical and isotopic analyses of fumaroles and hundreds estimations of the diffuse CO2 emission. These databases provided the base of numerous geochemical and interdisciplinary scientific works to understand the processes occurring in the hydrothermal-magmatic system of Campi Flegrei, a caldera in unrest since 2005. The main results obtained by this effort indicate the pivotal role of magma degassing in the current crisis of Campi Flegrei. The deep magmatic fluids are injected into the hydrothermal system during episodes of magma degassing. These injections cause pressurization and heating of the hydrothermal systems, earthquakes, ground deformations, changes in fumarole compositions and escalating CO2 emission at the surface. The expulsion of these fluids constitutes the most energetic process currently occurring at Campi Flegrei; it is, in fact, more energetic than ground deformation and seismic activity. In this work, we present a review of these different aspects.
The discovery of a large-scale gravitational collapse in the Gulf of Squillace, Calabria region (central Mediterranean)
Authors: Mangano Giacomo , Ceramicola Silvia , Alves Tiago M. , Zecchin Massimo , Civile Dario , Del Ben Anna , Critelli Salvatore
Published: March 2024

The discovery of a large-scale gravitational complex, named in this work Squillace Complex, has been reported in the Gulf of Squillace, Southern Italy, spanning from the continental shelf (c. 1.5 km from the coastline) to the distal sector, covering an area of roughly 600 km2.  The integration between seismic reflection data, borehole and bathymetric information has revealed that this complex exhibits a NE-trending headwall domain made up of sinuous and continuous seafloor scarps linked to a E-W morphological high, via a basal detachment layer between the Messinian evaporites and Tortonian shaleys.
The initiation of the Squillace Complex dates back to the Zanclean (~ 4 Ma) and persisted in movement through the Gelasian (~ 2.1 Ma) at an average rate of 1.9 mm/year. Later in the Calabrian (Middle Pleistocene), the movement underwent a braking and continued sliding to the present day at a reduced rate of 0.1 mm/year. The gravitational collapse of the Squillace Complex aligns temporally with distinct contractional/transpressional events impacting the Calabrian region. These events resulted from basin shortening under a setting of Calabrian Arc stop migration, as well as tectonic uplift affecting the study area since 0.45 million years ago.
In contrast, the diminished movement observed in the Squillace Complex since the Calabrian (Middle Pleistocene) has been inferred as a consequence of conditions of basin stretching in the framework of Ionian plate rollback beneath the Calabrian Arc.
The effect of soil macro-structure on bare soil evaporation – using HYDRUS 3D simulation on X-ray µCT determined soil structures
Authors: Leuther Frederic , Diamantopoulos Efstathios
Published: March 2024

Evaporation of soil water depends not only on climatic conditions, soil texture, and soil hydraulic properties but also on the soils’ macro-structure. Often, evaporation is characterised by water losses over time for a defined soil volume where soils are assumed to be homogeneous in texture and structure. In this study, we investigated the potential and limitations of 3D modelling of evaporation processes on soil cores with structural features ≥ 480 µm determined by X-ray computed tomography (X-ray µCT). The method was tested for two contrasting soil structures (ploughed vs. non-ploughed grassland) which experienced structural changes due 19 cycles of freezing and thawing. For all real soil samples, we simulated three different conditions of atmospheric demand with Hydrus 3D. It was hypothesised that the different distribution of air-filled macro-pores, the macro-connectivity of soil matrix and the surface area will affect bare soil evaporation and more specific the transition from stage 1 to stage 2 evaporation. To evaluate the effect of soil macro-structure on the column scale, we investigated the spatial distribution of water content and water fluxes. The combination of X-ray µCT and HYDRUS 3D was able to capture the effect of ploughing and freezing-thawing on soil macro-structure and to quantify the effect on the water dynamics inside the samples for various atmospheric demands and thus the feedback with evaporation.
OH airglow SWIR observations: high temporal resolution acquisition for ionospheric seismology proof of concept
Authors: Froissart Pierre-Yves , Lognonné Philippe , Simoneau Pierre , Nishida Kiwamu
Published: March 2024

Nightglow radiation is a very good marker of high-altitude dynamics. After a first detection of a tsunami signature by a camera in the O+ emission (red airglow at 250km) in 2011, only a few other tsunami detections have been recorded and none have been observed in OH SWIR emission, which is the brightest of all the nightglow emissions and the only compatible for shorter periods signals, such as seismic waves. On the other hand, these acoustic waves associated with earthquakes are systematically detected by other ionospheric instruments (GPS, radar), they have never been directly observed by an airglow camera.  Can they be also detected by airglow?We present here our strategy for such proof of concept. If achieved, it will provide unique access to seismic waves propagation where ground instruments are not available:  oceans, which cover more than 70% of the Earth's surface, but also to provide the harsh planetary environment of Venus, where airglow also exists and where it is not possible to send spacecraft to the ground.The recent development of SWIR cameras and the first detection of infrasound in OH radiation in 2020 opened the way for these detections. To better understand the continuous dynamics of the OH layer, we have deployed a first camera at La Réunion island in May 2023. Another one will be installed on the Japanese island of Oshima in February-March 2024 to try to detect the signature of a seismic event if one occurs during the course of this scientific study. The presentation details our methodology for observing the airglow OH perturbations, from the instrument specifications to the first results of almost one year-acquisition at la Réunion and the expected events that we will observe from Japan.
Improving the Generalizability of Urban Pluvial Flood Emulators by Contextualizing High-Resolution Patches
Authors: Cache Tabea , Gomez Milton S. , Blagojević Jovan , Beucler Tom , Leitão João P. , Peleg Nadav
Published: March 2024

Predicting future flood hazards in a changing climate requires adopting a stochastic framework due to the multiple sources of uncertainties (e.g., from climate change scenarios, climate models, or natural variability). This requires performing multiple flood inundation simulations which are computationally costly. Data-driven models can help overcome this issue as they can emulate urban flood maps considerably faster than traditional flood simulation models. However, their lack of generalizability to both terrain and rainfall events still limits their application. Additionally, these models face the challenge of not having sufficient training data. This led state-of-the-art models to adopt a patch-based framework, where the study area is first divided into local patches (i.e., broken into smaller terrain images) that are subsequently merged to reconstruct the whole study area prediction. The main drawback of this method is that the model is blind to the surroundings of the local patch. To overcome this bottleneck, we developed a new deep learning model that includes patches' contextual information while keeping high-resolution information of the local patch. We trained and tested the model in the city of Zurich, at spatial resolution of 1 m. The evaluation focused on 1-hour rainfall events at 5 min temporal resolution and encompassing extreme precipitation return periods from 2- to 100-year. The results show that the proposed CNN-attention model outperforms the state-of-the-art patch-based urban flood emulator. First, our model can faithfully represent flood depths for a wide range of extreme rainfall events (peak rainfall intensities ranging from 42.5 mm h-1 to 161.4 mm h-1). Second, the model's terrain generalizability was assessed in distinct urban settings, namely Luzern and Singapore. Our model accurately identifies water accumulation locations, which constitutes an improvement compared to current models. Using transfer learning, the model was successfully retrained in the new cities, requiring only a single rainfall event to adapt the model to new terrains while preserving adaptability across diverse rainfall conditions. Our results suggest that by integrating contextual terrain information with local terrain patches, our proposed model effectively generates high-resolution urban pluvial flood maps, demonstrating applicability across varied terrains and rainfall events.
Elastic and inelastic properties of the Pollino (Italy) seismogenic volume
Authors: Napolitano Ferdinando , Amoroso Ortensia , De Siena Luca , Gabrielli Simona , Capuano Paolo
Published: March 2024

The Pollino area, one of the largest seismic gaps in Italy, was struck between 2010 and 2014 by a long-lasting seismic sequence. More than 10,000 small-to-medium earthquakes occurred as a swarm-like sequence and, to a lesser extent, as  aftershocks following the two largest events: a ML 4.3 on 28 May 2012 and a ML 5.0 on 25 October 2012. A slow slip event began about three months before the strongest earthquake. Our study focuses on this complex sequence and the recent advancements obtained by our group in terms of crustal structure characterization and fault imaging. We integrate the most recent findings in terms of 3D scattering and absorption imaging, high sensitivity to fluid content, deformed fractured structures, and impermeable layers, with already achieved seismic and focal mechanism tomographic results and available geological information for the area. High absorption topping the western Pollino seismic volume appears pressurized between the low-Vp/Vs and low-scattering San Donato metamorphic core and a deep basement. This high absorption volume is also characterized, at the same depth, by an excess of fluid pressure, mapped by applying the focal mechanism tomography, where clusters of events of similar waveforms occurred. These events were caused by a slow slip event, similar to the transient deformation event, and favored by pore-pressure increases in fluid-saturated fault networks. This work was supported by the PRIN-2017 MATISSE project (no. 20177EPPN2), funded by the Ministry of Education and Research.
Increasing the information flow into glacier system models using an Ensemble Kalman Filter
Authors: Herrmann Oskar , Fürst Johannes
Published: March 2024

We are introducing a novel technique for calibrating the unknown parameters of a glacier model by integrating remote sensing data. Our approach involves the fusion of the Instructed Glacier Model (IGM) with an Ensemble Kalman Filter designed explicitly for transient data assimilation. Our primary objective is to assimilate remotely sensed observations at the respective time of acquisition during forward simulations. During the presentation, we explore the Ensemble Kalman Filter's core concept and showcase our approach's effectiveness through twin experiments, fine-tuning model parameters related to ice dynamics and surface mass balance. Utilizing observations from prominent glaciers in the European Alps, our methodology concurrently minimizes uncertainty estimates of crucial parameters such as equilibrium line altitude and ablation/accumulation gradients. The resulting uncertainty estimate is then integrated into future projections.
Sea level oscillations within the Last Interglacial: insights from coral reef stratigraphic forward modelling
Authors: Chauveau Denovan , Georgiou Nikos , Cerrone Ciro , Dean Silas , Pastier Anne-Morwenn , Rovere Alessio
Published: March 2024

Understanding past sea-level variations is essential to constrain future patterns of sea-level rise in response to warmer climate conditions. Due to good preservation and the possibility to use various geochemical methods to date fossil sea-level index points, the Last Interglacial (Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 5e; 130-116 ka ago) is often regarded as one of the best climate analogs for a future slightly warmer climate. Some MIS 5e coastal stratigraphic sequences, especially fossil coral reefs in tectonically stable areas, are characterized by abrupt shifts in their geological facies or steps within the reef topography, which have been often interpreted as proxies for abrupt sea-level fluctuations within the interglacial. However, the observational evidence and magnitude of such abrupt changes are controversial. Here, we run nearly 50 thousand simulations of a 2D kinematic reef model that can reproduce reef growth and demise through time. Our aim is to investigate the parameter space, the sea-level scenarios, and the processes by which double-stepped MIS 5e fossil reefs can form. Our results show that the only sea-level history that could explain the generation of an emerged MIS 5e backstepped reef is an abrupt rise in sea level, followed by a short-term peak. Any other multiple-stepped stratigraphy can be explained by the interplay between accommodation space, marine erosion, and bedrock slope, rather than by abrupt changes in sea level. 
Using a last 2k baseline to derive a first comprehensive assessment of industrial era land heat uptake
Authors: González-Rouco Fidel , García-Pereira Félix , Melo-Aguilar Camilo , Steinert Norman Julius , García-Bustamante Elena , de Vrese Philip , Jungclaus Johann , Lorenz Stephan , Hagemann Stefan , Cuesta-Valero Francisco José , García-García Almudena , Beltrami Hugo
Published: March 2024

The anthropogenically-intensified greenhouse effect causes a radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere. This in turn leads to an energy surplus of the Earth system, with the ocean component absorbing the greatest part and the land the second largest. The latest observational estimates based on borehole temperature profiles quantify the land contribution to the terrestrial energy surplus to be 6 % in the last five decades, whereas studies based on state-of-the-art climate models scale it down to 2 %. This underestimation stems from land surface models (LSMs) having a too shallow representation of the subsurface, which severely constrains the land heat uptake simulated by Earth System Models (ESMs). A forced simulation of the last 2000 years with the Max Planck Institute ESM (MPI-ESM) using a deep LSM captures about 4 times more heat than the standard shallow MPI-ESM simulations in the historical period, well above the estimates provided by other ESMs. However, deepening the MPI-ESM LSM does not affect the simulated temperature at the ground surface. As a consequence, it is shown that the land heat uptake values of ESMs with shallow LSM components can be corrected considering their simulated surface temperatures and propagating them with a standalone heat conduction forward model. This result is extended to all available ground surface temperature sources, such as observational data, reanalyses, and the latest generation of ESMs. This new approach yields values of 10-16 ZJ for 1971-2018, which are in close agreement with the values derived from the MPI-ESM deep simulation (12 ZJ), and relatively close to the latest borehole-based estimates (ca. 18 ZJ).