bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Introduction to Functional Analysis
Authors: Meise Reinhold , Vogt Dietmar
Published: November 2023

The book is written for students of mathematics and physics who have a basic knowledge of analysis and linear algebra. It can be used as a textbook for courses and/or seminars in functional analysis. Starting from metric spaces it proceeds quickly to the central results of the field, including the theorem of HahnBanach. The spaces (p Lp (X,(), C(X)' and Sobolov spaces are introduced. A chapter on spectral theory contains the Riesz theory of compact operators, basic facts on Banach and C*-algebras and the spectral representation for bounded normal and unbounded self-adjoint operators in Hilbert spaces. An introduction to locally convex spaces and their duality theory provides the basis for a comprehensive treatment of Fréchet spaces and their duals. In particular recent results on sequences spaces, linear topological invariants and short exact sequences of Fréchet spaces and the splitting of such sequences are presented. These results are not contained in any other book in this field.
Fréchet spaces and (DF)-spaces
Authors: Meise Reinhold , Vogt Dietmar
Published: November 2023

We have already introduced Fréchet spaces in Chapter 5 and have applied them several times. We shall now consider them systematically. Thus we shall next characterize which locally convex spaces are metric linear spaces, resp. Fréchet spaces, collect together the already known facts and consider the class of (DF)—spaces, introduced by Grothendieck, which contain the dual spaces of Fréchet spaces.
Sequence spaces
Authors: Meise Reinhold , Vogt Dietmar
Published: November 2023

In this chapter we shall consider sequence spaces systematically. In that way we shall be making clear with concrete examples a whole series of concepts introduced earlier and also be giving several counter-examples which have already been repeatedly referred to.
Number Theory
Authors: Cook Roger
Published: November 2023

Number theory is concerned with the properties of the positive integers. It includes topics such as primality and factorization, multiplicative functions, congruences and quadratic residues, and Diophantine equations. Examples in this chapter show that each of these topics has relevance to graph theory. Number theory is a collection of various results and topics, arising from the properties of the set N of positive integers. The central topics that appear in most undergraduate courses in number theory (see, for example, Hardy and Wright [20] or Schroeder [38]) are the following.
First-order Logic
Authors: Cameron Peter J
Published: November 2023

This chapter concerns some connections between graph theory and first-order logic. After an introduction to first-order logic and a discussion of which graph properties are first-order, we consider logical concepts such as ℵ0-categoricity and homogeneity for graphs, and present some theorems about finite graphs requiring logical techniques in their proofs. The chapter concludes with a discussion of a recent construction method of Hrushovski related to sparse random graphs. Model theory concerns itself with the relationship between mathematical structures and the logical formulas they satisfy. Structures are normally required to have a ‘finitary’ description in terms of relations, functions, etc.; graphs form a particularly natural class of examples. There is some choice about the kind of formulas we allow. The most commonly used is first-order logic, where formulas are finite and quantification is allowed only over the elements of the structure.
Knots
Authors: Welsh Dominic
Published: November 2023

This chapter illustrates some of the uses of graph theory in the study of knots. These include using the intimate relationship between some knot polynomials and the Tutte polynomial of a graph to prove a long-standing Tait conjecture, and also the use of graphs to provide bounds in the knot enumeration problem. Early work on knot theory was motivated by its applications. For example, Gauss [6] was concerned with the magnetic field which a knotted wire would produce if it carried an electric current. Kelvin and others tried to understand atoms as knots, hoping that the table of knots would reproduce the regularities of the table of elements.
Computing
Authors: Whitty Robin
Published: November 2023

Connections between graphs and computers are explored in this chapter-in particular, the kinds of digraph that arise in the analysis of computer programs. We examine program structuredness, complexity and testing, using ideas from formal language theory and compiler design: deterministic finite automata, attributed grammars and parse trees. Two important kinds of graph arise out of the theory of formal languages. Finite state machines model computation as a process of recognizing certain strings of symbols; in particular, the Turing machine has become familiar to graph theorists through its role in computational complexity (see Downey [9]). But the most basic machine, the deterministic finite automaton, should be even more familiar: it is a labelled digraph. Formal language theory is applied to programming languages such as Pascal or C, in order to translate them efficiently into machine code. This translation process is called compilation and is based on language parsing (Aho et al. [1] provides a comprehensive introduction); the associated parse trees are arguably the most pervasive of all the many kinds of trees in computing.
A Dutch upbringing
Authors: Kruuk Hans
Published: November 2023

Some 40 years before I met Niko wandering across the northern English sands and gulleries, he had been in a setting a long way distant, but not very different. The beaches near Scheveningen in Holland were just as huge, with the North Sea breaking into foam and noise, the dunes as a solid backdrop, sand drifting everywhere and gulls hanging in the updraughts off the dunes. Then in his early teens, Niko walked or cycled there from his nearby home, to watch migrating chaffinches and sparrow hawks following the coastline, and combing the beaches for anything the sea had brought in. The grey-haired man I met in the 1960s, roaming the dunes with his film camera, had not moved far from his roots, despite the geographical shift.
The Nobel Prize, And Human Behaviour
Authors: Kruuk Hans
Published: November 2023

Thursday, 12 October 1973 started as just an ordinary, rather dull morning in Niko’s life. He had been somewhere in the department, walking through the uninspiring, clinical corridors back to his room, and he called in on Pat, his secretary. ‘You just missed a personal call from Stockholm.’ She realized what was happening, he did not. Back in his own room, the call came again, and Niko responded with disbelief. The Nobel Prize for Physiology or Medicine, jointly with Konrad Lorenz and Karl von Frisch.
Winding down
Authors: Kruuk Hans
Published: November 2023

Somehow it seemed an incongruous and irrelevant deflation, that Niko should retire within months of his glory. But university rules dictated abdication at 67, and in fact Niko was more than ready to leave the Oxford department on the appointed date: 30 September 1974. Earlier that year he told Baerends (trans.): ‘I am more or less preparing myself to withdraw, and I am still very much in doubt about what best to do after my retirement. …
Comparison with high-temperature superconductors
Authors: Kuramoto Y , Kitaoka Y
Published: November 2023

The discovery by Bednorz and M üller (1986) of superconductivity at 30 K in the ceramic copper oxides [1] La2-xBarCu04 (abbreviated as 2-1-4) has had great impact on solid state physics. This breakthrough ,vas followed soon by the discovery of the 90 K-class superconductor YBa2Cu3o7_y (1-2-3) and recently by that of 130 K-dass HgBa2Ca2Cu30s+y (Hgl 223). These cuprates have the following characteristic properties [2]: 1. The Cu02 planes are commonly present, and are seIJ’arated by bridging blocks which act as charge reservoirs for the planes. Figure 6.1 illustrates the structure of the (2-1-4) system.
Quantum mechanical concepts
Authors: Pettifor D G
Published: November 2023

The experimental trends in bonding and structure which we have discussed in the previous chapter cannot be understood within a classical framework. None of the elements and only very few of the thousand or more binary AB compounds are ionic in the sense that the electrostatic Madelung energy controls their bonding. And even for ionic systems, it is a quantum mechanical concept that stops the lattice from collapsing under the resultant attractive electrostatic forces: the strong repulsion that arises as the ion cores start to overlap is direct evidence that Pauli’s exclusion principle is alive and well and hard at work! In this chapter we will briefly outline the key experiments which led to the breakdown of the classical world view and the birth of quantum mechanics. The concept of a wave packet will be used to resolve the problem of wave-particle duality and to underpin Heisenberg’s uncertainty principle. A plausibility argument will then be given for the derivation of the Schrodinger equation. It will be solved both for the free-electron gas and free atoms as the former is the starting point for our treatment of the bonding and structure of sp-valent metals, the latter for our treatment of covalent systems. Although this chapter is primarily concerned with introducing the concepts behind quantum mechanics, we will end with a short section on the recent predictive power of first principles calculations. It is these computationally intensive calculations that have given credence to the simple models which are developed and presented in subsequent chapters.
Family Therapy
Authors: Bloch Sidney , Harari Edwin
Published: November 2023

The term ‘family therapy’ covers a variety of approaches. At one extreme it is a method drawn from one or more of a range of theoretically based schools that seeks to help an individual patient who presents with a clinical syndrome.
The Arts Therapies
Authors: Schaverien Joy , Odell–Miller Helen
Published: November 2023

In the arts therapies—art therapy, music therapy, drama therapy, and dance movement therapy, as well as psychodrama—an art form is applied as a form of psychotherapy in clinical treatment. Collectively these professions, excluding psychodrama, are known as the arts therapies.
Cognitive–Behavior Therapy For Mood Disorders
Authors: Kuyken Willem , Watkins Ed , Beck Aaron T
Published: November 2023

Cognitive–behavioral therapy (CBT) for mood disorders is based on a cognitive theory of mood disorders with solid empirical foundations for its basic tenets, sets out principles that emerge from practice, theory, and research, and has been subjected to numerous outcome studies that have led it to be a ‘treatment of choice.
Schizophrenia
Authors: Turkington D , Martindale B , Bloch–Thorsen G R
Published: November 2023

Schizophrenia is a major cause of disability worldwide with a roughly stable prevalence of approximately 1%. The outcome in Western society has generally been viewed as being poor with a tendency to regular relapse or chronicity in the majority.
Cross–Cultural Psychotherapy
Authors: Ruiz Pedro , Bland Irma J , Pi Edmond H , Zulueta Felicity de
Published: November 2023

During the last 10–15 years, there has been an extensive globalization process that has affected most areas of the world, and has also impacted on all aspects of society, including health care. Concomitantly, there has additionally been a strong migration process from developing countries and regions toward industrialized nations.
The neuropsychological significance of stereotypy induced by stimulant drugs
Authors: Robbins T W , Mittleman G , O’brien J , Winn P
Published: November 2023

The purpose of this chapter is to discuss the neuropsychological significance of stereotyped behaviour, in particular that induced by psychomotor stimulant drugs such as amphetamine. Behavioural stereotypy is a phenomenon with connotations in wide aspects of psychology, including animal learning theory, ethology, human experimental psychology, particularly in analyses of skilled or automatic performance, and in neuropsychological studies of brain-damaged patients. Stereotypy is also frequently observed in the psychopathology of man and other animals. There is, of course, no guarantee that all of these forms of stereotypy are related by common psychological processes and this will be one of the questions to be addressed below. We will be concentrating on the behavioural and neural mechanisms underlying stereotypy, because these aspects have previously been somewhat neglected in favour of a more neuropharmacological approach.
Stereotyped behaviour in madness and in health
Authors: Frith G D , Done D J
Published: November 2023

It has long been recognized that pointless repetitive behaviour is a common component of madness. In 1701 Nehemia Grew wrote ‘We see also Mad people, in whom Phancy reigns, to run upon some one action, as Reading, or Knitting of Straws, without variation’. This repetition has been particularly observed in the speech and writing of mentally deranged people. ‘When lunatics attempt to write, there is a perpetual recurrence of one or two favourite ideas, intermixed with phrases which convey scarcely any meaning either separately, or in connection with the other parts. It would be a hard task for a man of common understanding, to put such rhapsodies into any intelligible form, yet patients will run their ideas in the very same track for many weeks together. .. .’ (John Ferrier 1795). Such behaviour can readily be observed in schizophrenic patients today. Kraepelin (1899) listed stereotypies as one of the characteristic symptoms of dementia praecox, yet today stereotyped behaviour receives very little attention.
Time Series
Authors: Diggle Peter J
Published: November 2023

Time series analysis is one of several branches of statistics whose practical importance has increased with the availability of powerful computing tools. Methodology originally developed for specialized applications, for example in business forecasting or geophysical signal processing, is now widely available in general statistical packages. These computing developments have helped to bring the subject closer to the mainstream of applied statistics. This book is an introductory account of time-series analysis, written from the perspective of an applied statistician with a particular interest in biological applications. Separate chapters cover exploratory methods, the theory of stationary random processes, spectral analysis, repeated measurements, ARIMA modelling, forecasting, and bivariate time-series analysis. Throughout, analyses of data-sets drawn from the biological and medical sciences are integrated with the methodological development. The book is unique in its emphasis on biological and medical applications of time-series analysis. Nevertheless, its methodological content is more widely applicable, and it should be useful to both students and practitioners of applied statistics, whatever their specialization.
Simple descriptive methods of analysis
Authors: Diggle Peter J
Published: November 2023

A counter-argument is that joining points gives a false impression of continuous observation. The zigzag appearance of the trace made by the joined points is an effective visual cue against this wrong interpretation, but the objection has some validity, particularly for series with missing values. For example, by not joining successive points in Figs 1.4 and 1.5 we drew the reader’s attention to the gaps and jumps in the series which are an intrinsic feature of the data.
Fitting autoregressive integrated movingaverage processes to data
Authors: Diggle Peter J
Published: November 2023

In Section 3.4 we introduced the class of autoregressive moving average (ARMA) processes and discussed the second-order properties of these processes. We also pointed out that the value of ARMA processes as models for time-series data lies primarily in their ability to approximate a wide range of second-order behaviour using only a small number of parameters. For this reason, methodology for fitting ARMA-processes to time-series data is of interest in its own right. However, an additional motivation for considering this methodology is its central role in the Box-Jenkins approach to forecasting, which we shall describe in Chapter 7.
Estiating functions: an overview
Authors: Godambe V P , Kale B K
Published: November 2023

In a wide variety of statistical applications, mainly two methods of estimation are used-least squares (LS) and maximum likelihood (ML). Each method has its strengths and weaknesses. The LS method is much more widely applicable than the ML method. The latter requires full distributional specification while the former is applicable only under the assumption of the first two moments. On the other hand, ML estimation is generally optimal while LS C8timation is optimal only when the underlying distribution is normal. With the advent of estimating functions in recent years, the two methods, ML and LS, have been merged into a single method of estimation. This estimation has the strengths of both ML and LS methods and the weaknesses of neither. Its varied areas of application include biostatistics, stochastic processes, survey sampling, and so on. This paper provides an overview of the modem developments in theory and applications of estimating functions, with a historical perspective.
Estimating equations in generalized linear models with measurement error
Authors: Liang Kung Yee , Liu Xin-Hua
Published: November 2023

It is common, especially in epidemiologic studies, that some of the study variables are measured with error. Examples include the measurement of the dose level of non-ionizing radiation in an occupational cohort study and the measurement of daily food intake in studying its association with major cancers.
The role of unbiasedness in estimating equations
Authors: Yanagimoto Takemi , Yamamoto Eiji
Published: November 2023

It is appealing to impose unbiasedness on an estimating equation. However, it seems necessary to investigate further the adequacy of the requirement. We show that existing moment estimators can be improved by enforcing the corresponding estimating equation to be unbiased. We also note that the conditional maximum likelihood equations can be regarded as the profile likelihood estimating equations, corrected for their bias.
The Glim System
Authors: Swan Tony , Gilchrist Robert , Bradley Malcolm , Clarke Mike , Green Peter , Reese Allan , Hinde John , Stalewski Andrew , O’brien Carl
Published: November 2023

This manual describes how GLIM 4 may be used for statistical analysis in its most general sense, including data manipulation and display, model fitting, and prediction. This is a thorough re-working of the previous GLIM manual to take account of updates to the software - essential reading for all research statisticians everywhere.
Organization and functions of cells responsive to faces in the ternporal cortex
Authors: Perrett D I , Hietanen J K , Oram M W , Benson P J
Published: November 2023

Cells selectively responsive to the face have been found in several visual sub-areas of temporal cortex in the macaque brain. These include the lateral and ventral surfaces of inferior temporal cortex and the upper bank, lower bank and fundus of the superior temporal sulcus (STS). Cells in the different regions may contribute in different ways to the processing of the facial image.
The neuropsychology of lipreading
Authors: Campbell Ruth
Published: November 2023

Lipreading presents a unique glimpse of the intersection of sensory processes with modular, cogmt1ve ones. It presents speech to the eye in an automatic and natural way, whether performed silently or in conjunction with heard speech. It therefore allows us to examine closely claims concerning the relation between input modality and cognitive function. In this paper I consider some of the ways in which the investigation of single neuropsychological cases casts light on this; such cases show us that lipreading can dissociate from other aspects of face perception and recognition, and from auditory speech perception and reading, too. Furthermore, different cognitive components of lipreading itself can be inferred from dissociations on different lipreading tasks. This leads to closer consideration of the boundaries of the necessary cognitive (and possibly anatomical) structures that subserve these functions.
Facial expressions of emotion: an old controversy and new findings
Authors: Ekman Paul
Published: November 2023

Evidence on universals in facial expression of emotion and renewed controversy about how to interpret that evidence is discussed. New findings on the capability of voluntary facial action to generate changes in both autonomic and central nervous system activity are presented, as well as a discussion of the possible mechanisms relevant to this phenomenon. Finally, new work on the nature of smiling is reviewed which shows that it is possible to distinguish the smile when enjoyment is occurring from other types of smiling. Implications for the differences between voluntary and involuntary expression are considered.
On the Development of Reference Priors*
Authors: Berger James O , Bernardo José M
Published: November 2023

The paper begins with a general, though idiosyncratic, discussion of noninformative priors. This provides the background for motivating the recent and ongoing elaborations of the reference prior method for developing noninformative priors, a method initiated in Bernardo (1979). Included in this description of the reference prior method is a new condition that has not previously appeared. Motivation for this new condition is found, in part, in the Fraser, Monette, Ng (1985) example. Extensive discussion of the motivation for reference priors and the specific steps in the algorithm are given, with reference to new examples where appropriate. Also, technical issues in implementing the algorithm are discussed.
Robust Sequential Prediction from Non-random Samples: the Election Night Forecasting Case*
Authors: Bernardo Josó M , Girón F Javier
Published: November 2023

On Election Night, returns from polling stations occur in a highly non-random manner, thus posing special difficulties in forecasting the final result. Using a data base which contains the results of past elections for all polling stations, a robust hierarchical multivariate regression model is set up which uses the available returns as a training sample and the outcome of the campaign surveys as a prior. This model produces accurate predictions of the final results, even with only a fraction of the returns, and it is extremely robust against data transmission errors.
Bayesian Robustness Functions for Linear Models
Authors: Pena Daniel , Tiao George C
Published: November 2023

The validation of a model (model diagnosis) is a key activity in statistical model building. Usually, this validation is made with the same sample data that has been used to build it. This is a serious limitation, because real data has normally many sources of heterogeneity: the parameters of the model can be changing over time, the sample may contains outliers or wrong measurement data, the model may be misspecified because of omitted variables, non-linear relations, and so on. Therefore, it would be better to use a sample for estimation and another for diagnostic checking, as it is often done in standard scientific practice.
Recent Methodological Advances in Robust Bayesian Inference
Authors: Wasserman Larry
Published: November 2023

Robust Bayesian inference is an approach to statistics that uses classes of models and priors. To use this approach, we must choose appropriate classes of priors and models, compute bounds on posterior expectations, succinctly summarize inferences and graphically display the results. I will discuss some recent attempts to address these issues.
Monte Carlo Bayesian Methods for Discrete Regression Models and Categorical Time Series
Authors: Carlin Bradley P , Polson Nicholas G
Published: November 2023

Discrete regression models and categorical time series are viewed as a constrained Bayesian hierarchical model. A Monte Carlo approach employing latent data variables is adopted, which leads to a conceptually simple and computationally feasible approach to this class of problems. We offer two illustrative examples. The first analyzes a binomial regression model and computes influence diagnostics based on Kullback-Leibler divergences between full and reduced dataset posteriors for a parameter of interest. The second example involves state space model analysis of a binary time series produced by monitoring an infant’s sleep patterns.
BAIES - A Probabilistic Expert System Shell with Qualitative and Quantitative Learning
Authors: Cowell Robert G
Published: November 2023

BAIES (Bayesian Analysis In Expert Systems) is a probabilistic expert system shell program for analysing Bayesian networks. By treating the probability distributions of network models as arising from a set of Dirichlet distributions, BA/ES can use updating algorithms in order to adapt the Dirichlet parameters, and-hence revise the predictions made on future cases. Analysis of the predictions of the models against the data can be made both at the level of comparing models and also in criticising the local structure and prior distributions used within the models.
Reliability Decision Problems under Conditions of Ageing
Authors: Spizzichino F
Published: November 2023

Wear-out and infant mortality of items are fundamental concepts in the statistical analysis of failure and survival data. Our aim is the study of some general qualitative properties of Bayes decision procedures when statistical data are failure and survival times of units which undergo wear-out or infant mortality. In particular we obtain ordering properties of the acceptance regions in the “predictive” two-action decision problem, by using the notion of majorization. A prerequisite for our study is an appropriate formulation of the concept of wear-out from the Bayesian viewpoint: in the frequentist approach, situations of wear-out are modeled by the Increasing Failure Rate (IFR) property of the distributions of lifetimes of units; this characterization is no longer valid when probability is intended as a degree of belief. Indeed, even if wear-out is present, it may happen that, while progressively observing the survival of a unit, we become more and more optimistic about its residual lifetime, at least in an initial period. This happens when our initial state of information (about possible unknown parameters affecting the random mechanism of failure) is too pessimistic. In a recent paper, Barlow and Mendel gave a suitable formulation of wear-out (Schur-concavity of the joint survival function). We shall use this as a general condition for our results after showing that it is equivalent to a significant property of conditional survival probabilities for residual lifetimes, given the data about already observed survivals. An analysis of the particular case of “Schur-constant” survival functions will allow us to clarify the motivation for the present paper.
Behavioural Adaptation
Authors: Dunbar Robin I M
Published: November 2023

Ever since Durkheim’s seminal work at the turn of the century (e.g. Durkheim 1915), social scientists have tended to insist that human behaviour (and human culture, in particular) is not adaptive and cannot be amenable to analysis from a biological perspective. Human social behaviour, so Durkheim argued, can only be understood in terms of the social context within which it is performed. From this derives the idea, widespread within the social sciences, that human behavioural and cultural norms are simply a reflection of the societies of which they are a part: it is the society (or culture) itself that determines what the individual believes and does.
Introduction
Authors: Walker Monica
Published: November 2023

The purpose of this monograph is to provide a starting point for anyone who wishes to understand the statistics of certain aspects of the criminal justice system in England and Wales. There has been a great expansion in the amount of statistical material published in the last ten years or so, but it is surprising to find that it is often quite difficult to understand exactly what the tables mean, to find out exactly what one wants to know, and to interpret the changes over the years (for example). The volume is divided into two parts: Chapters 2 to 7 each discuss a different aspect of the published statistics, while Chapters 8 to 12 are devoted to selected topics.
Homicide
Authors: White Philip
Published: November 2023

The term ‘homicide’ includes murder, manslaughter, and infanticide. In England and Wales in 1991 there were about 570 000 deaths, but only 726 were initially recorded as homicide in the Home Office statistics. Thus, while public concern over the incidence of homicide is great (and rightly so), it remains a relatively unusual event, amounting to 13.0 homicides per million population during 1991 (Criminal Statistics 1991 Chapter 4).
Introduction, terminology, and syntax
Authors: Payne R W , Lane P W , Digby P G N , Harding S A , Leech P K , Morgan G W , Todd AD , Thompson R , Wilson G Tunnicliffe , Welham S J , White R P
Published: November 2023

A brief guide to the statistical and mathematical facilities in Genstat is given in the Preface. This chapter describes the basic rules, terminology, and conventions of the Genstat syntax; you can think of these as the grammatical rules of the Genstat language. Later chapters will then describe the vocabulary required for all the operations that Genstat can perform. Section 1.1 illustrates some of the concepts using a simple example, while the later sections contain the rigorous definitions.
Data handling
Authors: Payne R W , Lane P W , Digby P G N , Harding S A , Leech P K , Morgan G W , Todd AD , Thompson R , Wilson G Tunnicliffe , Welham S J , White R P
Published: November 2023

Genstat has many directives for doing calculations or for manipulating data. There are also many procedures, mainly in the Manipulation module of the procedure library. You may wish to use these facilities as part of a statistical analysis; for example, you may want to transform your data before fitting a regression or doing an analysis of variance. However, they can be useful even if you have no intention of doing a statistical analysis but merely wish to use Genstat as a package for data-handling and arithmetic.
Basic Statistics
Authors: Payne R W , Lane P W , Digby P G N , Harding S A , Leech P K , Morgan G W , Todd AD , Thompson R , Wilson G Tunnicliffe , Welham S J , White R P
Published: November 2023

The subject of statistics includes a wide range of techniques for dealing with data. In the early days, statisticians were mainly concerned with collecting and summarizing data. Later the subject was widened to include methods for finding and fitting quantitative models and, more recently, methods have been developed for exploring data and searching for patterns.
Multivariate and cluster analysis
Authors: Payne R W , Lane P W , Digby P G N , Harding S A , Leech P K , Morgan G W , Todd AD , Thompson R , Wilson G Tunnicliffe , Welham S J , White R P
Published: November 2023

In this chapter we are concerned with statistical methods for analysing more than one variable simultaneously. Very often such methods initially combine information on all the given variables into a measure of association, such as a distance or dissimilarity; so, in a sense, they become univariate. Indeed in some fields of application, notably psychology and the social sciences, a single variable of associations may be observed directly, rather than calculated from more basic information. Multivariate analysis is concerned with two forms of data: (a) information on p variables for each of n samples (this can be called the data matrix); or (b) information, usually presented as a symmetric matrix, giving associations between all pairs of samples or all pairs of variables.
Introduction: human evolution, dispersals, and adaptive strategies
Authors: Akazawa Takeru
Published: November 2023

Where did humans originate? In order to answer this question a closer look at the relationship between humankind and the living non-human primates is necessary. Of particular importance is the question of which primates are more closely related to humans—the living Asian pongid represented by the orangutan, or the living African apes represented by the chimpanzee and the gorilla.
A Monte Carlo simulation study of coalescence times in a successive colonization model with migration
Authors: Aoki Kenichi , Shida Mitsuo
Published: November 2023

Based on the branching pattern of genealogical trees constructed from restriction maps and sequences of mitochondrial DNA, Cann et al. (1987) and Vigilant et al. (1991) have proposed an African origin of modern humans. Recent statistical reanalyses of parsimony trees have undermined their result (Templeton 1992; Hedges et al. 1992), but the greater sequence differences observed in sub-Saharan Africa are still regarded as supporting the African origin hypothesis. Another interesting aspect of the mitochondrial DNA work is the possibility that demo graphic changes can be inferred from the distribution of pairwise nucleotide dif ferences (Di Rienzo and Wilson 1991; Slatkin and Hudson 1991; Rogers and Harpending 1992). These authors suggest that there was a dispersal of modern humans out of Africa at the time of the deduced sudden increase in population. The theory of gene coalescence (Kingman 1982a,b; Hudson 1983; Tajima 1983), particularly for structured populations (e.g. Takahata 1988; Slatkin 1991, 1993), has provided useful insights into the evolution and variation of human mitochondrial DNA. (Coalescence is a retrospective way of looking at the genealogy of genes. A sample of genes from the present is said to coalesce when they share a common ancestor in the past.) However, the coalescent process has not yet been investigated in an explicit model of the African origin hypothesis. In this paper, we introduce a model for the gradual range expansion of a population initially restricted to Africa, and study the distributions and means of coalesence times by Monte Carlo simulations (see Fig. 4.1). Range expansion is assumed to occur as a result of successive colonization events that are linked to population growth, where empty sites arrayed in a finite linear stepping stone are colonized one by one. Migration is permitted between demes (random mating populations) occupying adjacent sites. By varying the timing of the colonization events, note that both the ‘out of Africa’ and ‘multiregional’ scenarios (Wolpoff 1989; Wolpoff eta/. 1984) become special cases of our model.
Environmental context for early human occupation in western North America
Authors: Willig Judith A
Published: November 2023

In North America, the Clovis fluted point tradition represents the earliest widespread culture accepted without controversy. Originally formulated as the Llano-Clovis big-game hunting tradition (Sellards 1952), the complex was ar chaeologically indexed by the association of Clovis-type fluted points with extinct Pleistocene megafauna in buried, stratigraphic contexts from kill sites in the Great Plains and southwest dating 11840-10620 BP (Haynes eta/. 1984). The Clovis complex was later expanded into a pan-continental pattern based on broad similarities in fluted point forms, tool kits, and site types, and a site distribution ranging from Alaska to South America, and from the west-to-east coasts of North America. The presence of small, widely scattered, low density sites and isolated finds, with few large base camps suggested a low population density. The inferred adaptational pattern was one of small groups of highly mobile, wide ranging foragers and big-game hunters focusing on now-extinct Pleistocene fauna for food, shelter, and clothing (Haynes 1964, 1980).
New assessments of early human occupations in the southern cone
Authors: Nami Hugo Gabriel
Published: November 2023

Archaeological research has shown much progress in recent decades. The advances have paved the way for new methodological appraisals of old problems such as the peopling of the American continents and the nature of their earliest inhabitants, and they have provided theories, methods, and data on ancient human occupations (e.g. Politis 1988; Nami 1994; Nami, in press), presumably by Paleoindians (Bray 1988; Dillehay 1991).

The southern cone of the American continent comprises Chile, Argentina, Uruguay, and the south of Brazil. In this paper I discuss sites located in the Argentine provinces of Jujuy, Buenos Aires, Mendoza, Neuquen, and Santa Cruz, and also sites in the Chilean regions of Ultima Esperanza and Tierra del Fuego. Tagua Tagua and Monte Verde will be discussed by Nuiiez and Dillehay, respectively.
Paleolithic colonization in Sahul land
Authors: White J Peter
Published: November 2023

Discussions of the settlement of Sahul, the landmass which joined the countries of New Guinea, Australia, and Tasmania, have usually been concerned with events within it, occasionally looking across Wallacea to events in southeast Asia and China, but rarely setting it within a world context. The textbook writers, of course, have done so, but they have universally treated this area as marginal, peripheral to the better documented, more dramatic and thus more important history of Europe. This summary paper challenges the marginality view of Sahul prehistory on two grounds. First, the settlement of this continent is one of only two such occurrences in the world’s human history. Second, several aspects of the prehistory of Sahul indicate that our textbook view of world prehistory, and of human abilities and activities in the past, needs reconsideration.
What is southeast Asian about Lapita?
Authors: Spriggs Matthew J T
Published: November 2023

The linkage between the spread of the Lapita cultural complex from Melanesia into western Polynesia, and the spread of Austronesian languages was first sug gested in the 1970s (Shutler and Marek 1975; Bellwood 1978). That this spread was linked to a dispersal of Mongoloid peoples out of Asia, through southeast Asia into Polynesia was explicit in these formulations. Indeed, an ultimately Asian origin for Polynesians was postulated in the European voyages of explora tion to the Pacific in the eighteenth century (Cook 1784, Vol. III, p. 125).

The foundations of Polynesian languages and cultures go back to the exten sion of Lapita into a previously uninhabited region. That the immediate Lapita ‘homeland’ is further west in the Bismarck Archipelago is also well accepted. It is also generally agreed that Austronesian languages, whether in Polynesia or the Bismarcks, are derived from even further to the west, from Taiwan. The process that took these languages fr m Taiwan to island Melanesia and Polynesia should leave archaeological traces. The obvious trace, no later than about 3000 BP-the initial settlement of Polynesia-is Lapita in island Melanesia and Polynesia.
Formation of the Japanese language in connection with Austronesian languages
Authors: Sakiyama Osamu
Published: November 2023

It is generally believed that Japanese is an isolated language, forming a single family together with the languages of the Ryukyu Islands. Although Japanese shares many typological features with the so-called Altaic languages, the lack of clear phonological correspondences is a serious problem for the Japanese-Altaic hypothesis. Austronesian elements in Japanese have been underestimated until now, because they have been thought to be lexical in character: that is, old borrowings.

I argue that Japanese is a mixed language formed through the pidginization of northern, possibly Tungusic, languages with some form of Austronesian.

The language family in the southern areas that is linked to the Ryukyu-Japanese Archipelago is called Austronesian. Van H. Labberton and J. Whymant in the 1920s and some other scholars first noticed the location of Austronesian speakers relative to the Archipelago, and postulated the importance of Austronesian in the formation of the Japanese language. However, tentative comparison among vocabularies yields semantically improbable examples (Table 23.1), even after attention is paid to phonological correspondences.
Statistics in Toxicology
Authors: Morgan B J T
Published: November 2023

This collection of papers on aspects of statistics in toxicology is will be of interest to all medical statisticians. It offers findings from numerous leading experts from around the world including A. Whitehead and R. N. Connor (University of Reading), L. Ryan (Harvard), A. P. Grieve (Pfizer Research), K.J. Risko (Northern Telecom), and B.H. Margolin (University of North Carolina). This is the latest in the popular Royal Statistical Society Lecture Series, and will be essential reading for all those involved in this area.
Statistical analysis of overdispersed multinomial data from developmental toxicity studies
Authors: Krewski Daniel
Published: November 2023

Toxic chemicals present in the human environment may induce developmental anomalies in the offspring of exposed parents, particularly as a consequence of maternal exposure. In addition to epidemiological evidence of adverse effects on fetal development, laboratory experiments in small mammalian species represent a major source of data on developmental toxicity. Laboratory studies afford a greater level of control than is possible in observational studies of human populations, and can be conducted in advance of human exposure. This chapter discusses statistical methods for analysing overdispersed multinomial data arising from laboratory studies of developmental toxicity.
Why forecasts fail and policies are often frustrated1
Authors: Keyfitz Nathan
Published: November 2023

A nation can be ruined by cleverly crafted short-term solutions to its long-term problems. Some people are homeless. They can’t afford privately available housing? Rent hotel space for them, or quickly build low-rent apartments in a scheme of so-called urban renewal. Single girls have carelessly become pregnant? Provide them with a temporary income provided there is no man in sight to support them. Crime is increasing? Mandate longer sentences and build more jails. And even more obvious, the treasury is empty? A painless answer: borrow the money.
Approximate Bayesian Computation Based on Signed Roots of Log-Density Ratios
Authors: Sweeting T J
Published: November 2023

We discuss approximate Bayesian computation based on the asymptotic theory of signed root log-likelihood, or log-posterior density ratios. Third-order correct formulae for univariate posterior distribution functions are reviewed and some new fourth-order correct formulae for Bartlett corrections, posterior expectations and predictive distributions presented. All the approximations described in the paper are available at little additional computational cost over simple first-order approximations and are particularly useful for sensitivity and influence analyses. Some illustrative examples are given. It is argued that analytic approximation still has an important role to play in Bayesian statistics.
Some Statistical Issues in Palæoclimatology¹
Authors: West Mike
Published: November 2023

This paper discusses some issues arising in the study of patterns of historical climate change based on geochemical measurements in deep lake sediment cores. The specific climatological focus is on patterns of variability, and possible cycles, in climatic indicators during the past two or three millenia. The statistical issues raised relate to various aspects of statistical calibration of raw data records, data quality and uncertainty propagation through data processing stages, and problems of time series analysis to assess patterns of variation in the geological records over time. Novel time series methods are introduced to address the questions of cyclicality in the data records and to allow for various sources of uncertainty in dating of the records. Dynamic models with cyclical auto-regressive components, and various aspects of their simulation based analyses, are discussed, and some exploratory analyses of currently available palreoclimatologicaldata are summarised. Other issues discussed include radiocarbon calibration, uncertainties in data timing, missing data, model combination, and the future prospects in the current and related palreoclimatological contexts.
Proper Scoring Rules for Fractiles
Authors: Cervera* J L , Munoz** J
Published: November 2023

In this paper we consider the problem of how an expert should be paid when he/she states the information about the distribution of a random quantity in terms of fractiles, and an observation is subsequently taken. The reward, as a function of the stated fractiles and the actual observation, should encourage the expert to be honest. We introduce a family of such functions, discuss their properties and consider some extensions. The ideas are illustrated with an example about the number of delegates to Valencia-5.
Variable Selection and Model Comparison in Regression
Authors: Geweke J
Published: November 2023

In the specification of linear regression models it is common to indicate a list of candidate variables from which a subset enters the model with nonzero coefficients. This paper interprets this specification as a mixed continuous-discrete prior distribution for coefficient values. It then utilizes a Gibbs sampler to construct posterior moments. It is shown how this method can incorporate sign constraints and provide posterior probabilities for all possible subsets of regressors. The methods are illustrated using some standard data sets.
On Inference for Outputs of Computationally Expensive Algorithms with Uncertainty on the Inputs
Authors: Haylock* R G , O’Hagan** A
Published: November 2023

This paper considers Bayesian inference for the outputs of a computationally intensive algorithm, and for appropriate summary measures of those outputs. It is possible, because of the computation time involved, to run the algorithm under a few different combinations of the input parameters. These outputs provide the data. The complexity of estimating outputs and summary measures from computationally expensive algorithms is compounded if inputs to the algorithm are uncertain. Current methodology using sampling schemes, as used in the field of radiation protection, fails to make maximum use of available subjective information about the uncertain inputs or to provide many summary measures.
The Geometry of Bayesian Inference
Authors: Shortle J F , Mendel M B
Published: November 2023

This paper gives a method for generating a geometric picture of a conditional distribution such as the posterior distribution used in Bayesian inference. From such a picture, it is possible to see simultaneously how different observations of one variable affect the distribution of another variable. The method generalizes to representing a conditional distribution in arbitrary coordinates. Differential forms and their geometry are used to redraw the pictures under a change of coordinates. The posterior distribution for the energy of a simple spring-mass system is used to illustrate the method.