bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The Urban Basis of Political Alignment: A Comment
Authors: Harrop Martin
Published: January 2009

In a recent article, Patrick Dunleavy argues powerfully for an independent effect of ‘consumption locations’ on the political process in general, and voting patterns in particular, in Britain (‘The Urban Basis of Political Alignment: Social Class, Domestic Property Ownership and State Intervention in Consumption Processes’, this Journal, IX (1979), 409–44). Through an analysis of the housing and transport markets, Dunleavy suggests that people involved in ‘collective’ modes of consumption (such as council tenants and public transport users) are as a result of their own distinctive interests more likely to incline to the left than people involved in more ‘individual’ modes of consumption (such as home-owners and car-owners). Dunleavy suggests further that since consumption locations are at least partially independent of occupational class, the spread of home-ownership and car-ownership in the post-war period may help to account for the declining electoral influence of occupational class.
Regime Support in Canada: A Rejoinder
Authors: Kornberg Allan , Clarke Harold D. , Leduc Lawrence
Published: January 2009

In their commentary on our paper, Atkinson, Coleman and Lewis, although acknowledging that ‘studies of political support are particularly appropriate in Canada’, are very critical of our effort for two principal reasons. Firstly, they argue that we have presented no compelling evidence that citizens are unable or unwilling to distinguish sharply between regime and the party in power. On the contrary, they note that Shanks and Citrin have concluded that ordinaryAmericancitizens routinely distinguish between regime and authorities. Secondly, they claim that rather than measuring regime support, the dependent variable is simply measuring partisan orientations toward the governing Liberal party and its leaders (e.g. ‘evaluation of incumbent authorities’ (p. 403); ‘the party in power and not the regime’ (p. 403); ‘the incumbent Liberal authorities’ (p. 404); and ‘the dependent variable is measuring feelings toward a Liberal party government and not the regime’ (p. 409)).
Candidate Selection in Ireland: The Impact of Localism and the Electoral System
Authors: Gallagher Michael
Published: January 2009

Although the selection of candidates for elections to the national parliament is an important part of the political process, there is little writing on the way in which this is carried out in the Republic of Ireland. This no doubt springs largely from parties' reluctance to reveal details of this essentially internal matter. In Duverger's words, ‘parties do not like the odours of the electoral kitchen to spread to the outside world’.
The Growth of Public Welfare Provision: Does Politics Matter?
Authors: Roweth Barbara , Gould Frank , King Desmond S.
Published: January 2009

In their article – ‘Public Welfare Provision, Scandinavia, and the Sheer Futility of the Sociological Approach to Polities’ – Castles and McKinlay claim to have demonstrated that

two factors contribute to and explain the particularly high levels of public welfare provision in Scandinavian countries [compared to other advanced, industrial democratic states]. The absence of a large right-wing party establishes the initial necessary condition that removes the primary barrier to the development of welfare provision. The historic strength and unity of the working-class movement, reflected in the dominance of social democracy, is the factor which is then responsible for the development of public welfare to its current high level.
Do Critics Always Matter? Or, A Comedy of Errors
Authors: McKinlay Robert D. , Castles Francis G.
Published: January 2009

On one level, it is something of a pleasure when one's colleagues take sufficient interest in a paper to write a rejoinder. Furthermore, Roweth et al. are to be complimented on writing their rejoinder in a systematic manner. It seems only reasonable therefore, that we should respond to each of their charges, which they label our ‘shortcomings’, by following their format.
Private Giving in the Welfare State
Authors: Obler Jeffrey
Published: January 2009

If the welfare state embodies a collective obligation to give to those in need, it also attests to the failure of individual, private giving, which from the advent of industrialization has been far too modest and capricious to care adequately for the sick and indigent. Private, individual giving simply cannot compete with state help when it comes to guaranteeing people's welfare. But its failure to do a job better handled by the state does not mean that private giving is an irrelevant anachronism. Even the welfare state's most ardent supporters should appreciate its value. Private giving has intrinsic worth. It reveals how humane society is. Giving and helping palpably enrich public life, although, unlike high per capita income or low crime rates, they elude statistical composites of collective well-being. Private giving also has instrumental value. In so many ways – ranging from assisting an old lady off a bus to saving a drowning stranger – people can help each other when the state may be helpless. Privately-given funds, time, attention and ideas can supplement what the state offers; limited state resources inevitably leave some people with less than they need, and the gaps in state aid can be filled, at least in part, by private efforts.
Testing the Butler-Stokes Model of a Polarization Effect Around the National Swing in Partisan Preferences: England, 1979
Authors: Johnston R. J.
Published: January 2009

In the section of their book Political Change in Britain entitled ‘The Sources of Uniform Swing’, David Butler and Donald Stokes presented a model to account for an apparent paradox in Britain's electoral geography – the relative uniformity of the ‘two party swing’ between elections across all parts of the country. This uniformity is paradoxical because if the national trend in changes of partisan preferences were to apply equally in all areas then the swing against a party experiencing a net loss of votes should be greatest in those areas where it won most votes at the first election: indeed, as Butler and Stokes show, it may even register a net gain of votes where it was weakest, despite the national trend being against it.
But How Many Candidates Should We Have in Donegal? Numbers of Nominees and Electoral Efficiency in Ireland
Authors: Katz Richard S.
Published: January 2009

When the results of an analysis fly in the face both of generally accepted theory and the practice of professional politicians, it is usually a good idea to reconsider whether the point is really established. Such is the case with the small literature regarding the effects of nomination strategies on the outcomes of Dáil Éireann elections that has developed in these pages since the publication of an article by Cohan, McKinlay and Mughan (‘The Used Vote and Electoral Outcomes: The Irish General Election of 1973’, thisJournal, v (1975), 363–83). The original article made several valuable points, including a demonstration that patterns of transfer votes may be more important than the distribution of first preference votes in determining the result of elections under the single transferable vote (STV) system, and an extension of the wasted vote concept to STV, majority, and proportional elections. Unfortunately, the notes that have followed have all focused on the most questionable conclusion of the original article, that overnomination hurts a party's chances of electing the maximum possible number of deputies.
Comment on Katz
Authors: Cohan A. S.
Published: January 2009

Professor Katz raises a number of points, but I shall limit myself to four. Firstly, I accept his argument that the way in which parties nominate candidates, even over-nomination, may be functional for party unity. Indeed, nowhere in the previous articles has anything else been suggested.
Sociotropic Politics: The American Case
Authors: Kinder Donald R. , Kiewiet D. Roderick
Published: January 2009

American elections depend substantially on the vitality of the national economy. Prosperity benefits candidates for the House of Representatives from the incumbent party (defined as the party that controls the presidency at the time of the election), whereas economic downturns enhance the electoral fortunes of opposition candidates. Short-term fluctuations in economic conditions also appear to affect the electorate's presidential choice, as well as the level of public approval conferred upon the president during his term. By this evidence, the political consequences of macroeconomic conditions are both pervasive and powerful. But just how do citizens know whether the incumbent party has succeeded or failed? What kinds of economic evidence do people weigh in their political appraisals? The purpose of our paper is to examine two contrasting depictions of individual citizens – one emphasizing the political significance of citizens' own economic predicaments, the other stressing the political importance of citizens' assessments of the nation's economic predicament – that might underlie the aggregate entwining of economics and politics. Ours is an inquiry into the political economy of individual citizens.
The Concept of Manipulation: Its Relation to Democracy and Power
Authors: Ware Alan
Published: January 2009

The aim of this paper is to explicate the concept of manipulation, to show why it is of central importance in democratic theory, and to explain its relation to power. At first glance this might seem an unusual objective, since it remains one of the least studied of the concepts that are usually recognized as members of the power or control ‘family’. Yet allegations of the existence of manipulative practices, and demands for intervention by public agencies to prevent them, are commonplace in political life. Political science and political philosophy have contributed little to the understanding of how, for example, the following four claims about manipulation are to be evaluated.
The Soviet Press on Soviet Foreign Policy: A Usually Reliable Source
Authors: Axelrod Robert , Zimmerman William
Published: January 2009

Regimes are often preoccupied with maintaining their credibility. Great powers wish to convey to their allies the impression that they are not only strong but reliable. In limited adversary relationships, credibility is viewed as a resource to perpetuate and develop the more co-operative aspects of a fragile relationship. During war time, during the Cold War, or in other sharply adversarial relationships, leaders have an interest in conveying to their rivals a sense of what they consider important. Regimes also cherish credibility as part of their own self-image. There is yet another, more paradoxical, reason why credibility is valued: it can be used as a resource to achieve deception. On the occasions when statements are meant to deceive, the effort will not be effective if it is based on a reputation for thoroughgoing mendacity.
Charles Lindblom and Aaron Wildavsky
Authors: Premfors Rune
Published: January 2009

Charles Lindblom and Aaron Wildavsky are both prolific writers, so out of necessity a relatively brief review of their work would have to be either very selective as to the themes dealt with or quite superficial in its treatment of their many contributions to contemporary social science. I have essentially adhered to the latter strategy in this article. Any reader who expects an in-depth analysis and a critical appraisal of, for example, incrementalism will be disappointed. What I oner instead is a first acquaintance with all the major themes in the scholarly production of Lindblom and Wildavsky and also with the critiques they have provoked.
Forecasting the British Election to the European Parliament
Authors: Payne Clive , Brown Philip J.
Published: January 2009

The first elections to the European Parliament were held on 10 June 1979 with each EEC country following its own electoral system. As in all recent elections, on-the-night forecasting was an integral part of the television coverage in Britain. This paper describes the method used by the BBC to predict the composition of the British delegation to the European Parliament. The performance of the method is discussed and some tentative conclusions are drawn about the behaviour of the British electorate.
The Domestic Pressure Factor in Arms Races: A Comment on Saris and Middendorp
Authors: Smith Theresa C.
Published: January 2009

In ‘Arms Races: External Security or Domestic Pressure?’ (this Journal, x, 121–8), Willem Saris and Cees Middendorp advance a compelling argument for the preponderance of domestic forces in driving arms races. However, the weight of the argument must be borne by the well-reasoned explanation of industrial forces and saturation levels, since the empirical analysis is fundamentally flawed in three ways. Definitions are lacking, data sources are ambiguous, and the application and interpretation of statistical procedures are inappropriate.
Reply to Smith
Authors: Saris Willem E. , Middendorp Cees P.
Published: January 2009

Although we appreciate the attention the critic has given to our paper, we are somewhat disappointed about the kind of criticism. It is said that the ‘empirical analysis is fundamentally flawed’. But if the analysis is flawed it must be very easy to show it by a reanalysis of the data. However, if one takes the time to look at the data used in this study one can see immediately that when the USSR's level of armaments is very low the USA is producing large amounts of missiles. On the other hand, when the USSR has a large number of missiles the USA's production is nil or very little. Consequently one must conclude that the USA cannot possibly be reacting to the activities of the USSR in the simple ways suggested by Richardson or Hamblin et al. This result was confirmed by our statistical analysis of the data. One can of course try other statistical procedures, as we did, but they all produce the same result: there is no reaction effect in the USA's behaviour.
A Probabilistic Approach to the Causes of Coups d'Etat
Authors: O'Kane Rosemary H. T.
Published: January 2009

‘In the last ten years on my individual reckoning’, observes S. E. Finer, ‘there have been seventy-three coups in forty-six countries’. ‘Coups’, Gurr comments, ‘can alter political processes and social institutions as drastically as any classic revolutions’. Yet the incidence and importance of coups are hardly reflected in the sparse literature proposing generalizations about their causes. Certainly, many case studies of individual coups have been undertaken, but the choice of the country has usually been decided by availability of data rather than its significance for a general theory. Given that coups have occurred all over the world, they clearly are a general phenomenon. Existing general explanations for them, however, are open to criticism. These suggest that essentially there is room for a theory which is about coups in particular rather than about wider forms of political instability, or about the narrower, military, coup; which is capable of falsification, avoiding inherently untestable hypotheses or concepts that are defined so loosely as to invite accusations of tautology; and which is, of course, able to withstand appropriate empirical examination.
Counter-Productive Welfare Law
Authors: Campbell T. D.
Published: January 2009

A standard criticism of the welfare state which is enjoying a resurgent popularity is that many of its operations are inefficient, even counter-productive, in relation to their assumed objectives. At the level of political and journalistic rhetoric it is asserted or implied that large sums of tax-payers' money are being spent in ways which benefit mainly the army of officials that administers them, and that much needless legislative effort goes into securing complexes of rights which serve only to provide work for tribunals and lawyers. At its most extreme the claim is that some welfare enactments actually cause more harm than good in that their intended beneficiaries would be better off without them.
Exogenous Voter Preferences and Parties with State Power: Some Internal Problems of Economic Theories of Party Competition
Authors: Dunleavy Patrick , Ward Hugh
Published: January 2009

This paper deals with the theories of electoral or party competition in liberal democracies which have been put forward in ‘economic’ models of democracy by Downs, Riker and Ordeshook, Robertson and others. There can be few doubts about the growing importance or appeal of these models, especially for North American political science. Barry, for example, argues that ‘we have seen the last of the “sociologists” in political science’, while in contrast the economic approach has ‘flourished quantitatively and qualitatively’. Barry attributes this change-round since the early 1960s to political scientists' penetration of sociologists' ‘characteristically sloppy logic and flabby prose to discover the deeper problems of circularity and vacuousness inherent in the approach’. In contrast, economic models have claimed the mantle of strictly developed deductive theory and displayed remarkable elusiveness as objects of criticism. Most attacks have been represented as irrelevant by appealing to the Friedmanite epistemology which denies any significance to the descriptive ‘realism’ of a deductive theory's assumptions. As Downs argued: ‘Theoretical models should be tested by the accuracy of their predictions rather than by the reality of their assumptions’. That such a naive verificationism cannot discriminate between the (potentially large) range of non-falsified explanations has not impeded economic models' progress, largely because a similar position is espoused in almost all competing ‘mainstream’ electoral analysis.
On Contextual Change and Partisan Attributes
Authors: Brown Thad A.
Published: January 2009

Geographical mobility is a striking characteristic of modern societies. Since migrants are often faced with social, economic and political changes which may affect their political behaviour, population movement is crucial to an understanding of politics.
‘Embourgoisement’, the Property-Owning Democracy and Ecological Models of Voting in England
Authors: Johnston R. J.
Published: January 2009

The availability of detailed census data at the level of parliamentary constituencies has promoted the testing of ecological models of voting behaviour in the United Kingdom. To date, most of the testing has used the 1966 Census data, which is inferior to that for 1971 in certain respects. As a result, it has not been possible to test in detail two models – that of ‘embourgeoisement’ and that of the ‘property-owning-democracy’. But the cross-classifications available at constituency level for the 1971 Census allow the relative importance of the two to be assessed.
Judicial Ideology in the House of Lords: A Jurimetric Analysis
Authors: Robertson David
Published: January 2009

For a variety of reasons political science in Britain has made no serious attempt to study courts and judges as political institutions and actors. Or at least this was true until recently. Several works in the last few years, especially Griffith's, Stevens's and a forthcoming book on the law lords by Alan Paterson, have pointed to a much needed change in this attitude. However, none of them have been works of political science, even though they have considered politics. By this I mean two things: they have not principally considered the judges' thoughts as political ideology; and they have not used the techniques and assumptions of rigorous, analytic political science. Indeed one of the few slightly earlier studies of the political role of the courts in Britain, by Morrison, specifically denies that such approaches, especially the statistical approach of jurimetrics, is possible in Britain. This article is an attempt to do the impossible, not so much because the author believes that Morrison's point is necessarily wrong, but because it is never sound methodology to abandon techniques that have been useful elsewhere without trying to make them work on different data sets. But first we must attempt to characterize the judicial role, before we try any study of the politics that may be attendant on judicial ideology.
The Supreme Soviet and Budgetary Politics in the USSR
Authors: White Stephen
Published: January 2009

Compared with its counterparts in other countries the Soviet Union's national legislature, the USSR Supreme Soviet, has generally received little attention from scholars. The reasons are not far to seek. The Supreme Soviet meets much less frequently than its counterparts elsewhere; its votes are almost always unanimous; its discussion of government legislation is generally perfunctory and confined to details; and it has yet to ask a Soviet minister to resign. Yet, for all these obvious shortcomings, it has become increasingly apparent in recent years that the Supreme Soviet, like the soviets at lower levels of the state hierarchy, has been assuming greater powers and becoming a less marginal participant in the policy process than it was under Stalin or even Khrushchev. This apparent assumption of authority is evident most clearly in the expansion in the number and powers of the standing commissions attached to each of its chambers, through which, as in most modern legislatures, an increasing proportion of its business is conducted, but it is apparent in other ways as well. All in all, as one commentator has put it, the Supreme Soviet's meetings and discussions were indeed ‘perfunctory’ and ‘stage-managed’ for perhaps the first three decades of its existence (1936–66); but since Stalin, and more particularly since Khrushchev, the Supreme Soviet has made a ‘modest – but in terms of past history, impressive – comeback as an institution with more than purely symbolic functions’.
Manipulation, Liberalism and Paternalism: A Reply to Morriss
Authors: Ware Alan
Published: January 2009

In his Comment on my article Peter Morriss raises several interesting points, but in this reply I shall try to show that the objections he makes to my analysis are not convincing. I consider first the more general arguments grouped under my ‘second error’. This permits consideration of the ‘first error’ to be placed in the context of anti-paternalist liberal arguments.
The Case of the Silk-Stocking Socialists and the Calculating Children of the Middle Class
Authors: Alt James E. , Turner Janet
Published: January 2009

Recent developments in the political behaviour of the British electorate have called into question the once-prevalent view that class was what counted when it came to voting and all else was ‘embellishment and detail’. Two streams of thought dominate the recent literature. One notes the continuing prominence of social class in the context of voting behaviour, but stresses the extent to which class is no longer expressable as a simple function of occupation (manual and non-manual), but instead requires paying attention to such aspects of lifestyle as tenancy patterns. The other, best exemplified in Dunleavy's recent work, pays less attention to individual lifestyle and emphasizes instead the extent to which changes in the occupational structure (particularly sectoral location and unionization) have altered the political meaning of workplace (‘production’) locations. The theoretical interest in sectoral location arises from the growth of public sector employment since the early 1960s and the increase in public sector labour militancy in the early 1970s. According to this view, partisan choice is influenced by sectoral location and by union membership, which is itself not a matter of lifestyle nor a simple extension of social class, but is bound up with sectoral (public/corporate/small private) location of occupation.
Policy Directions and Presidential Leadership: Alternative Interpretations of the 1980 Presidential Election
Authors: Miller Warren E. , Shanks J. Merrill
Published: January 2009

As the Reagan administration neared the end of its first full year in office, interpretations of the meaning of the 1980 presidential election were still as varied as the political positions of analysts and commentators. The politically dominant interpretation, promoted by the new administration and its supporters, was that the election provided a mandate to bring about several fundamental changes in the role of government in American social and economic life. In recommendations whose scope had not been matched since the first days of Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal, the Reagan administration set about responding to what it understood to be popular demands for reduced government spending and taxes, expansion of the national defence establishment, limitation of environmental protection in favour of the development of energy resources, and a myriad of other tasks designed to encourage free enterprise by ‘getting government off the backs of the people’. With varying degrees of enthusiasm for the new administration's programmes, scores of Democratic politicians shared the interpretation of Reagan's victory as a new electoral mandate which rejected many of the fundamental policies of Democratic administrations from Roosevelt to Carter. This interpretation of the ‘meaning’ of the 1980 election was expressed by Democratic congressmen of many political colours who decried the bankruptcy of their own leadership and affirmed the victor's sense of mandate by supporting the President's various legislative programmes.
Predicting Policy Change in the House: A Longitudinal Analysis
Authors: Hurley Patricia A.
Published: January 2009

If one were asked to describe the process of policy change in the United States in one word, that word would surely be ‘incremental’. Students of the Congressional process can point to a number of factors which account for delay in changes of policy; it is only recently that they have begun to examine the occasional departures from Congressional intractability in matter of public policy. This paper seeks to further our understanding of how internal legislative conditions can produce or inhibit policy change. While the first scholars to call attention to this phenomenon noted that policy changes followed critical realignments, others have made a more general case for the ability of Congress to pass important legislation, arguing that Congressional potential for policy change depends largely upon the interactive effects of both majority and minority size and unity. Policy changes have been enacted by those Congresses with large and/or cohesive majorities and small and/or disorganized minorities. These conditions often follow realigning elections, but occur at other times as well.
Dirty Hands
Authors: Hollis Martin
Published: January 2009

February 13th, 1692, is still remembered in the Western Highlands of Scotland. At 5 a.m. a blizzard was raging down the valley of Glencoe but there were soldiers about. They were two companies of the Argylls under Captain Robert Campbell of Glenlyon, peaceably billetted on the MacDonalds of Glencoe for the past two weeks. The MacDonalds, who had newly sworn allegiance to King William of Orange, had treated them well. Sacred bonds of hospitality had been forged – a reassuring sign that enmities were fading between MacDonalds and Campbells and between Highland supporters of the Stuarts and the new Edinburgh government of 1688. But that was illusion. Captain Campbell had received secret instructions the previous day. ‘Sir, You are hereby ordered to fall upon the rebels, the MacDonalds of Glencoe, and to put all to the sword under seventy… This you are to put in execution at five of the clock precisely… This is by the King's special command, for the good and safety of the country, that these miscreants be cut off root and branch…’ At five of the clock precisely the Argylls turned on their hosts. Almost forty MacDonalds were killed on the spot and many more, who scrambled away up the bleak walls of the glen, died of exposure in the blizzard. Crofts were burnt, cattle and goods carried off. That was the infamous Massacre of Glencoe. I shall start from here and gradually follow the moral questions which arise into the arena of politics at large.
Tradition, Community and Self-Determination
Authors: Parry Geraint
Published: January 2009

Liberals have regularly associated tradition with constraint. They have spoken of the ‘force’ of tradition or of the ‘despotism’ of custom. Locke drew a contrast between those who let themselves be guided by ‘traditional customs and the fashion of the country’ and those who use their liberty to think for themselves. For John Stuart Mill ‘the love of liberty’ was antagonistic to ‘the sway of Custom’. Tradition and custom are represented by liberals in much the way Machiavelli represented fortuna, as forces which, unless repulsed by independent, free-thinking persons, would inevitably dominate whole societies and epochs. Mill held up China as the warning example. Custom had there become the court of ultimate appeal, the standard of justice, the argument which none could contemplate resisting. Custom had annihilated individuality and with it liberty, along with genuine history. The consequence was ‘stationariness’. Unless the modern pressure of opinion was resisted Europe would become another China. The chief interest of the history of mankind, Mill declared, was the contest between custom and the progressive principle. A free society is in liberal terms an open society.
Social Insurance, Distributive Criteria and the Welfare Backlash: A Comparative Analysis
Authors: Rosenberry Sara A.
Published: January 2009

With some notable exceptions, comparative research on the welfare state falls generally into one of two categories: qualitative and generally descriptive case studies and large-scale quantitative efforts at explanation. Case studies have progressed past the point of being essentially journalistic descriptions of the peculiarities of the policy development process or the policies of a particular society. It is nevertheless true that there has been little progress in moving beyond the case study approach towards building a theory about how and why societies make particular decisions about the priorities and organization of their social welfare efforts. On the other hand, while large-scale aggregate analysis yields theoretical statements about the character of ‘the welfare state’, those conclusions are often so general as to be ‘difficult to relate to… how particular substantive problems have been [and might be] handled.’
The Government Relations Function in Large Firms Based in the United Kingdom: A Preliminary Study
Authors: Grant Wyn
Published: January 2009

The United Kingdom's economy is relatively highly concentrated and the importance of decisions taken by very large firms for the economy as a whole encourages direct contacts between government and such firms. The scale and importance of such direct contacts has created a need within very large firms for a specialized capability to interpret the external political environment, and to relate that appreciation to the development of the firm's corporate strategy. A number of large firms in the United Kingdom have developed specialized government relations divisions in the last ten years. The titles of such divisions vary, but their most important function is the strategic co-ordination of the firm's relationships with government and other political actors.
Isms
Authors: Höpfl H. M.
Published: January 2009

This essay is the relic of a projected history of ‘individualism in politics’. That enterprise – the reasons for abandoning it will be transparent from what follows – prompted some reflections which may be of more general interest. For no habit is better established in the humanities and social sciences, as well as in political speech, than that of constituting a subject-matter for oneself by means of an -ism. And while there may be instances where the context makes this practice unproblematic, a survey of the past and contemporary record of -isms gives grounds for suspicion and reservations.
The Power of Business in America: A Re-appraisal
Authors: Vogel David
Published: January 2009

Over the past fifteen years, there has been a steady stream of books and articles on business-government relations describing the ‘privileged position’ occupied by the business corporation in the American political system. Taking issue with the pluralist paradigm that dominated writing and research on American national politics in the two decades after the Second World War, these writers have argued that business is not simply another interest group. Instead, they have suggested that its role in American society is more akin to that of a dominant class, power elite or private government: it thus possesses a degree of influence that invariably exceeds that of any other class or interest group. This appraisal of the political dominance of business in contemporary American society primarily rests on four sets of interrelated observations. These include the ability of business to define the political agenda; the extent to which business gains disproportionate benefits from the political process; the need for elected officials to maintain a high degree of ‘business confidence’; and the superior capacity of business interests to mobilize political resources, work closely with each other and shape the climate of public and elite opinion.
Candidate Selection in the Labour Party: What the Selectors Seek
Authors: Bochel John , Denver David
Published: January 2009

Elections in democratic societies are open, well-publicized events. But preceding the glamour of modern election campaigns and the drama of election-night broadcasts there is a process which usually receives little attention or publicity. Political parties, which dominate elections, choose their candidates.
Centralization and Incremental Change in France: The Case of the Haby Educational Reform
Authors: Duclaud-Williams Roger
Published: January 2009

A concern with the relationships between different levels of centralization and the management of change is long-standing in many of the social sciences. The French educational system has always stood in the minds of many as a monument to over-centralization and red tape. In her recent magisterial study,The Social Origins of Educational Systems, Archer has examined the consequences for educational change of different levels of centralization in the educational system in a variety of national settings. In her book she argues with great care and a wealth of historical example that it is possible to establish certain broad generalizations which describe the manner in which educational change is produced, and that sharp distinctions in this regard must be made between the centralized systems and the more decentralized systems. Her study covers the period up to 1974. Since then there have been very important changes in the French educational system. These changes and the political conflict which surrounded them, particularly between 1974 and 1978, are of considerable interest in their own right, to students of both comparative public policy and French politics. The principal purpose of this discussion, however, is to examine Archer's propositions about the modes of change typical of centralized systems in the light of the reforms introduced in these years. My concern is therefore with the administrative and political consequences of centralization and this inquiry leads in turn to some discussion of the role of pressure groups in the Fifth French Republic.
Miller on Market Neutrality, Co-operatives and Libertarianism
Authors: Gordon David
Published: January 2009

David Miller's article ‘Market Neutrality and the Failure of Co-operatives’ has two principal theses. The first of these, with which I have no quarrel, is that co-operatives will have a difficult time surviving in a free market economy. The second is that the truth of the first thesis suggests that a crucial argument in favour of libertarianism is wrong.
The Political Economy of the Brezhnev Era: The Rise and Fall of Corporatism
Authors: Bunce Valerie
Published: January 2009

When Leonid Brezhnev came to power in 1964, the Soviet empire consisted of Cuba and six reliable satellites in Eastern Europe, the bloc was dominated politically and economically by the Soviet Union, and East–West interactions were kept to a minimum. Soviet military capabilities at this time, moreover, were clearly inferior to the military power of the West. And while East–West relations were testy, they had improved in the aftermath of the Partial Test Ban Treaty of 1963.
The Transition to Democracy in Portugal and Spain
Authors: Pollack Benny , Taylor Jim
Published: January 2009

The relatively recent proliferation of books and articles on Spain and Portugal is obviously a consequence of the profound socio-political changes that have occurred in those countries over the past decade. The range and variety of this growth area of academic literature has been considerable. It is almost as if after more than forty years of dictatorship, everybody wanted to acquire, in a few years, the knowledge they had been deprived of before. New journals newspapers, books and booklets appear and disappear from bookstores and newspaper stands with amazing rapidity, revealing the importance of the anxieties and frustrations created by so many years of intellectual and physical repression and censorship. In the light of this publishing explosion this article will attempt to review the major contributions to the debate on the Spanish and Portuguese transitions to democracy, with the intention of delineating the most prominent issues and themes (political, social and economic) involved.
Familiarity and Inertia in the Formation of Governing Coalitions in Parliamentary Democracies
Authors: Franklin Mark N. , Mackie Thomas T.
Published: January 2009

Political scientists who set out to test theories of coalition formation in parliamentary contexts (notably Browne, de Swaan, and Taylor and Laver) found only limited evidence to support the more classical game-theoretic propositions, which predict the formation of coalitions that command a majority of seats in a parliament but are otherwise as small as possible, in some sense of the word ‘small’. As a consequence, Browne later advocated the laying aside of these size theories in favour of theories that took account of the policy preferences of potential coalition partners, and in two separate studies theories were tested that focused upon the ideological component in coalition formation. Both these studies found theories based on presumed policy preferences to perform better than size theories. A more recent study has shown that the relative performance of theories based on size and ideological considerations depends on assumptions made in conducting the research. This study employed multiple regression analysis to establish that both kinds of theory had parts to play in an explanation of formation outcomes, which were dominated sometimes by size and sometimes by ideology, depending on country and time period. In the course of the analysis an additive combination of size and ideology was found to correlate to the extent of r ≃ 0·4 with formation outcomes, producing consistently better predictions than any existing theory.
The Red and the Green: Patterns of Partisan Choice in Wales
Authors: Balsom Denis , Madgwick P. J. , Van Mechelen Denis
Published: January 2009

The distinguishing features of recent electoral politics in Wales have been the continued predominance of the Labour party and the failure of the nationalist party, Plaid Cymru. Since 1945 Labour has taken between twenty-one and thirty-two of the thirty-six seats at each general election and not less than 47 per cent of the vote. There has been some weakening of Labour's position since the high point of 60·6 per cent in 1966, but the party still secured 46·9 per cent of the vote in 1979, and rode out the Conservative victory in Britain as a whole with the loss of only two seats in Wales. Some variation in the Labour vote can be explained in terms of general shifts in British politics. However the enduring weight of Labour support in Wales in unpropitious times requires further explanation.
The Electoral Consequences of Gender in Australia
Authors: Kelley Jonathan , McAllister Ian
Published: January 2009

The increasing importance of women in politics is a common feature of almost all advanced industrial societies. Women have become increasingly active in most aspects of political life during the 1970s: as voters, as lobbyists and, perhaps most significantly of all, as candidates for election to public office. The traditional prejudice against women in public life, which assumes women to be less suited to politics by temperament and training, suggests that they could be expected to receive fewer votes than men in an election. But it is unclear to what extent this prejudice has been mitigated by the broad changes which have taken place in women's roles in recent years. Can we still expect women candidates to fare less well than their male counterparts?

Such eviddce as there is in Australia suggests that the parties are less likely to nominate women but that, once nominated, women candidates fare neither better nor worse than men. Sawer concludes that ‘the differential electoral fortunes of male and female candidates has always reflected the failure to pre-select women for safe and winnable seats, not any failure to win votes.’ In a similar vein Mackerras argues that ‘the average performance of women is neither better nor worse than that of men. Women will be elected when parties select them for winnable seats.’ Research in the United States and Britain also suggests that a candidate's sex does not matter: Darcy and Schramm found that sex did not matter in the United States, controlling for incumbency and party, and in an analysis of three British general elections, Hills concluded that ‘the gender of a candidate makes only a very small difference to the voters.’
Patterns of Support for Democratic and Capitalist Values in the United States
Authors: Chong Dennis , McClosky Herbert , Zaller John
Published: January 2009

Two major traditions of belief, democracy and capitalism, have dominated American public life from its inception. Although they have not always coexisted in perfect harmony – indeed their union has often been torn by conflict – they have managed to accommodate to each other with sufficient flexibility to have forged a viable political culture.
State, Ecology and Independence: Policy Responses to the Energy Crisis in the United States
Authors: Temkin Benny
Published: January 2009

The energy crisis has, at least for the time being, been replaced in newspaper headlines and public attention by other, more fashionable, and seemingly more pressing preoccupations. In the United States, for example, the dilemmas posed by the shortages and spiralling price increases of the 1970s gave way to different policy problems and the Reagan Administration has all but ceased to consider the energy question important.
The Making of a More Partisan Electorate in West Germany
Authors: Norpoth Helmut
Published: January 2009

The mid-1960s to mid-1970s was a period of unexpected upheaval, ideological ferment, issue polarization and changing of the guard in the United States no less than in West Germany or other European countries. Nearly everywhere politics moved from an era of tranquillity to an era of confrontation. Established political parties were challenged by the salience of new issues and by new forms of political participation. The ability of parties to govern and, at the same time, to prove responsive under these circumstances was put to a severe test. The hold of parties on the mass electorate appeared to be slipping, and the writing of scenarios for partisan realignment and dealignment turned into a cottage industry.
‘Popularity Functions’ and the Role of the Media: A Pilot Study of the Popular Press
Authors: Mosley Paul
Published: January 2009

It is widely supposed that the level of popular support for governments depends on those governments' success in handling the economy. Some recent studies have attempted to test this idea by estimating the statistical relationship between the government's popularity in the opinion polls and various indicators of the state of the economy such as unemployment rates, inflation rates, growth rates and so on. A general finding of these studies is that popularity is significantly correlated with all these indicators of the standard of living. All of them, however, operate on the assumption that the voters behave as if they had perfect knowledge of the state of the economy as set out for example by the Government Statistical Service. Whether this assumption does, in fact, approximate to the truth will, however, depend in large part on how the popular media present economic trends and economic relationships to their public. If there are gaps and biases in the information which is presented to many voters, then those voters will be responding to a picture of the economy which may differ dramatically from the picture offered by publications such as Economic Trends and the government will be selling its policies in a highly imperfect market. The purpose of this paper is to mount a preliminary investigation into the picture of the economy which has been presented by one important medium of communication, namely mass-circulation newspapers. The aim is to show how firstly the scope and secondly the interpretation of the economic data presented by the popular press developed over the period 1960–80. The limitations of this method should be spelled out. We are not considering all the sources from which people derive information about the economy (personal communications, radio, television, newspapers), but only the last and possibly the most partisan of these. This Note offers, therefore, in no sense ‘the ordinary man in the street's perception of the economy’ but simply the picture of the economy which one influential medium of communication presented.
Economic ‘Stagflation’ and Public Support for the Political System
Authors: Weatherford M. Stephen
Published: January 2009

Declining trust in politicians and political institutions is one of the most dramatic and well-documented trends in American public opinion. Confidence in religious, educational and other institutions has also waned, but emphasis has focused on diminished political trust, both because it may summarize a wide range of diffuse grievances and because it might indicate an increased potential for disruptive action, political violence and instability. In the decade from 1968 to 1978, the level of political trust (measured by the conventional five-item CPS/NES index) was halved, the proportion of the public expressing moderate or high levels of trust falling from 64 to 33 per cent. The greatest decline in the index level (a drop of 14 points) occurred between 1972 and 1974.
Are the Liverpool Liberals Really Different? A Path Analytic Interpretation of Local Voting in Liverpool 1973–82
Authors: Laver Michael
Published: January 2009

It has already been demonstrated that part of the success of the Liverpool Liberals in local elections can be attributed to split-ticket voting by Liverpool electors. In May 1979, when city council and Westminster elections took place simultaneously, substantial proportions of voters went into a polling booth and voted for different parties at local and national level. This note attempts a further investigation of the basis of Liberal support in Liverpool local elections. Its main purpose is to test two hypotheses.

1. ‘Liberal voting displays a weaker causal linkage to the socio-economic structure of Liverpool wards than does voting for the other two parties.’

2. ‘Liberal voting is much more directly related to ward turnout than is voting for the other two parties.’