bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Large-scale identification of riverbank filtration wells using an isotopic and geochemical approach
Authors: Labelle Laurence , Baudron Paul , Barbecot Florent
Published: September 2022

This study proposes a simple isotopic framework for the identification of riverbank filtration wells, using time-series of water’s stable isotopes and electrical conductivity at the watershed scale. Riverbank-filtration (RBF) is a widely used managed aquifer recharge method where the infiltration of surface water is induced by pumping groundwater at proximity of a river or lake, and where the quality of the raw water is controlled by the interaction between ground and surface water bodies. As inventories of RBF sites are rare, they limit the development of specific source protection strategies. In the framework of a project funded by the Ministry of the Environment and the Fight against Climate Change of Québec (MELCC, Canada), 40 municipal wells located at less than 500 meters from a surface water body were sampled for 18 months on a monthly to weekly basis. The underlying hypothesis was that a significant contribution of infiltrated surface water to a pumping well would propagate the temporal variations of the tracers observed in surface water. Results highlighted that 25% of the wells pumped a significant contribution of infiltrated surface water: 15% established a continuous connection during the whole hydrological year, while the other 10% revealed a seasonal connection linked to spring floods. All those wells were located less than 120 meters from the surface water and drilled less than 40 meters deep in a granular aquifer. As the number and strength of spring floods may increase in the future, the seasonally connected wells are particularly vulnerable to global change and might prefigure increasing climate forcing on drinking water supply. The remaining 75% were either evidenced as groundwater only (50%) or lacked continuity in the data acquisition (25%). A simple abacus based on the standard deviation of the tracer distribution was then proposed to facilitate the interpretation and make the methods accessible to all. Based on an affordable and easy to perform sampling protocol for water managers, this framework helps in the assessment of specific risks associated to mixed sources of water, and in anticipating variations in quality of the abstracted drinking water.
Analysis of rainfall trend and the impact of teleconnection patterns on its variability: case of Medjerda Transboundary Watershed
Authors: Boulmaiz Tayeb , Boutaghane Hamouda , Abida Habib , Saber Mohamed , Kantoush Sameh A. , Tramblay Yves
Published: September 2022

Medjerda is a key transboundary watershed (Algeria and Tunisia) in the Maghreb region.  The analysis of rainfall regime in this basin is of paramount importance for water resources management and for regional economic development notably in relation with agriculture. This study examines the rainfall trends over the Medjerda watershed on a multi-temporal scale (monthly, seasonally and annually), taking also the spatial scale into consideration. A database of monthly rainfall observed in 60 stations evenly spread over the watershed is used for this purpose. After filling gaps and homogenisation of data, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test for trend detection was applied to rainfall time series. Prior to the trend detection, a Trend-Free Pre-Whitening (TFPW) procedure has been applied to ensure the independence of the data. Moreover, the Sen’s slope method was adopted to estimate the magnitude of rainfall trends over the catchment. Rainfall values in the different stations were then used to generate a map of interpolated Sen’s slope in order to explore the spatial distribution of rainfall trend within the watershed. The results showed that there is a decreasing trend in annual rainfall over the whole basin, yet non statistically significant. Nevertheless, at smaller scales, there is more rainfall trends detected (increasing or decreasing) for different seasons or months, showing the importance of analyzing also monthly or seasonal trends that may differ from annual trends and have some important consequences in terms of water management . Finally, the influence of different teleconnection patterns (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAOi, the South Oscillation, SOIi and the Mediterranean Oscillation, MOi) on rainfall trend were also investigated. The analysis showed weak correlations at the seasonal scale. Indeed, NAOi and MOi have a similar effect on winter rainfall demonstrated by a positive correlation, while SOi is negatively correlated with spring rainfall. These results highlight the potential small-scale impacts of large-scale climate oscillations on rainfall trends.
Hydrological sciences realising the UN Sustainable Development Goals
Authors: Arheimer Berit ,   Hydrological Research unit of SMHI
Published: September 2022

This presentation intends to inspire the scientific community with an overview of tangible examples on how hydrological research can help realising each of the global Sustainable Development Goals by 2030 at a sub-goal level (in brackets below). Examples will be given from on-going work in the following hydrological fields, where new knowledge and understanding is crucial.

Hydrological forecasting and warning services help reducing exposure and vulnerability to climate-related extreme events (1.5), increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix (7.2), devise and implement policies to promote sustainable tourism (8.9), significantly reduce the number of deaths and the number of people affected and substantially decrease the direct economic losses (11.5).

Water allocation and ecosystem services strengthen food production systems for adaptation to climate change, extreme weather, drought, flooding and other disasters (2.4), protect and restore water-related ecosystems, including mountains, forests, wetlands, rivers, aquifers and lakes (6.6), achieve the sustainable management and efficient use of natural resources (12.2), ensure the conservation, restoration and sustainable use of terrestrial and inland freshwater ecosystems and their services (15.1).

Water quality assessments help ending water-borne diseases (3.3), improve water quality by reducing pollution (6.3), achieve the environmentally sound management of chemicals and significantly reduce their release to water (12.4), prevent and significantly reduce marine pollution of all kinds, in particular from land-based activities (14.1).

Climate change impact assessments strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters (13.1).

Education, capacity development, participatory modelling and co-creation with stakeholders ensure that all learners acquire the knowledge and skills needed to promote sustainable development (4.7), enhance the use of enabling technology also empowering women (5b), support and strengthen the participation of local communities in improving water and sanitation management (6.b), facilitate sustainable and resilient infrastructure development in developing countries (9.a), empower and promote the social, economic and political inclusion of all (10.2), ensure responsive, inclusive, participatory and representative decision-making at all levels (16.7), broaden and strengthen the participation of developing countries (16.8) and enhance international cooperation on and access to science, technology and innovation with knowledge sharing on mutually agreed terms (17.6).
Use of the HEC RAS model for the analysis of exceptional floods in the Ouémé basin 
Authors: Ernest Amoussou , Toundé  Félix Amoussou , Yaovi Aymar Bossa , Domiho Japhet Kodja , Sourou Henri Totin Vodounon , Constant Houndénou , Valérie Borrel , Jean-Emmanuel Paturel , Gil Mahé , Christophe Cudennec , Michel Boko
Published: September 2022

The Ouémé River basin extends over almost half of Benin's territory, entirely located in a humid tropical climate. This river system includes a deltaic zone (delta of the Ouémé) known for its high agricultural potential and thus subject to a socio-economic development agenda. The Ouémé delta is facing recurrent floods that maintain rural agricultural population into a retrograding crisis with significant damages such as losses of properties. The objective of this study is to improve decision-making in the Ouémé basin through the simulation of exceptional floods using the HEC-RAS model.

The HEC RAS model is a conceptual model, which works through mathematical and physical formulas to implement environmental phenomena for forecasting, understanding and analysis purposes. The model inputs used are basin GIS data, hydro-meteorological data, characteristics of existing hydraulic structures, etc. The targeted outputs include 1D/2D/3D view plans with support of satellite images, tables, graphs and curves. It is worth mentioning that the model provides outputs compatible with other tools, such as civil engineering (Civil 3D, Revit, Infraworks, etc.) and GIS, that help to expand the valorization fields.

The implementation of the model in the Ouémé basin has made it possible to note: (i) that the recurring effect of losses and damages is justified by the settlement of the population on the river banks; (ii) that there is an important agricultural production in areas of high flood risk; (iii) that depending on the occurrence of the phenomenon, the flooded extent and the height of submersion remains variable, and more important for extreme flooding; (iv) about 12.07% occurrence of river flood against 13.24% for flash flood at a return period of 30 years. Moreover, it is very relevant to note that most of flood waters converge to the western part of the basin (an area with a low risk of flooding, stretched over 63.68 km²) and to the eastern part around the Damè-Wogon depression (an area at high risk of flooding, stretched over 10.49 km²).

Key words: Ouémé River Basin, HEC-RAS ​​model, exceptional flood, Return period
Toward Improved Parameter Estimation of Variable Infiltration Capacity Model Under the Impacts of El Niño Events
Authors: Thakur Chandni , Mohaideen Diwan , Kasiapillai Sudalaimuthu Kasiviswanathan , Soundharajan Bankaru Swamy , Teutschbein Claudia
Published: September 2022

Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) contributes 80% of the annual rainfall in South Asian countries and is strongly influenced by El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The most recent El Niño event during 2015-2016, with an Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) of 2.6 had enormous effects on rainfall and water resources in South Asia. Thus, agricultural output, economy, water resources and societal well-being of South Asian Region heavily rely on the impacts of ENSO on the variability of ISMR. Godavari River Basin (GRB) is the second largest river basin in India with an annual runoff yield around 81 Gm3 and thus important in terms of agriculture and food security. Uncertainty of the ENSO-monsoon relationship and its implications on rainfall variations in GRB necessitates the importance of modelling the impacts of ENSO on changing rainfall, hydrology and agricultural productivity. Hence, this study focused on the understanding of the variations in hydrological processes under the scenario of pre, ongoing and post El Niño events in the Godavari GRB using the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model. Accurate estimation of VIC parameters is pivotal to produce reasonable simulations of catchment responses under the impact of El Niño events. In this regard, a framework with enhanced calibration methods is presented for estimating VIC parameters (Baseflow and runoff both). Using this framework, we identified the most critical parameters, which could represent the landscape and climatic characteristics of GRB in response to El Niño events. The proposed framework also reduced the number of parameters needing to be calibrated and hence increased computational efficiency. The parameters identified strengthened the accuracy of VIC simulations to examine the relative changes in hydrological processes with respect to magnitude of ONI. Improved understanding of impact pathways of El Niño in the GRB can help water resource managers to reduce El Niño-induced vulnerabilities and to better prepare in meeting the irrigation water supply and power demands under different El Niño conditions.
How much do serial correlation and field significance affect trend detection on extreme precipitation frequencies?
Authors: Farris Stefano , Deidda Roberto , Viola Francesco , Mascaro Giuseppe
Published: September 2022

According to both theoretical considerations and climatic projections, precipitation extremes are expected to increase under a warmer environment. Inferential analyses involving statistical testing procedures are frequently performed to validate this scenario. Recent research has found that the results of trend tests applied to hydrological data might be misinterpreted if (i) records exhibit autocorrelation and (ii) field significance is not taken into account when tests are performed multiple times. In this study, we investigate these two issues focusing on frequencies (or counts) of daily rainfall extremes. To this end, a sample of extreme precipitation frequency time series is derived from long-term (100-year) daily precipitation records retrieved by 1087 rain gauges belonging to the Global Historical Climate Network database. Several Monte Carlo simulations are performed involving random synthetic frequency time series generated through the Poisson first-order Integer-valued AutoRegressive model (Poisson-INAR(1)), reproducing the statistical properties of the observed counts and characterized by different sample size, autocorrelation level, and trend magnitude. The following are the key findings. (1) While empirical autocorrelations are likely due to the existence of trends, empirical trends cannot be explained solely by autocorrelation, suggesting that accounting for serial correlation may have a limited influence on trend analyses of extreme frequency time series. (2) Taking field significance into account enhances the interpretation of test results by reducing the type-I errors. (3) Parametric statistical trend tests based on linear and Poisson regression prove more powerful than non-parametric tests (e.g. Mann-Kendall test) in analyzing count series. (4) Finally, we use these insights to conduct trend assessments on observed counts, finding several clear spatial patterns of statistically significant increasing (decreasing) trends, mostly located in central and eastern United States and Northern Eurasia (southwestern United States, southern Europe, southern parts of Australia).
Multi Scale Assimilation of NDVI and radar data for soil moisture and Leaf Area Index Predictions in an Heterogeneous Mediterranean Ecosystem 
Authors: Gaspa Andrea , Montaldo Nicola
Published: September 2022

In the presence of uncertain initial conditions and model parameters coupled land surface model (LSM)- vegetation dynamic model (VDM) performance can be significantly improved by the assimilation of periodic observations of certain state variables, such as the soil moisture and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as observed from satellite remote platforms.

The possibility to merge grass and tree NDVI observations and radar data with the model optimally for providing robust predictions of soil moisture and grass and tree leaf area index (LAI) in heterogenous ecosystems is demonstrated. We propose an assimilation approach that assimilates backscatter data from radar and NDVI from optical sensors through the Ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and provides a physics-based update of soil moisture and grass and tree LAI predicted by VDM. We used Sentinel 1 radar data for soil moisture, and Landsat 8 and Sentinel 2 optical data for NDVI.

This approach, as with other common assimilation approaches, may fail when key model parameters, e.g. the saturated hydraulic conductivity of LSM and the maintenance respiration coefficient (ma) of VDM, are estimated poorly. This leads to biased model errors producing a violation of a main assumption (model errors with zero mean) of the EnKF. For overcoming this model bias an innovative assimilation approach was developed, which accepts this violation in the early model run-times and dynamically calibrates all the components of the model parameter ensembles as a function of the persistent bias in root zone soil moisture and LAI, allowing to remove the model bias, restore the fidelity to the EnKF requirements and reduce the model uncertainty.

The proposed multiscale assimilation approach was tested in a Sardinian field site, a typical Mediterranean ecosystem characterized by strong heterogeneity of the vegetation and water limited conditions. The site is also a case study of the SWATCH European Research Project, and in this field a micrometeorological eddy-covariance based tower is operating from 2003.

The effective impact of the proposed assimilation approach on the soil water budget, evapotranspiration and CO2 uptake predictions in the heterogenous ecosystem is demonstrated.
Co-design of multidimensional mainstreaming of the WEFE Nexus: preliminary results from the four Mediterranean Nexus-Ness living labs
Authors: Nardi Fernando ,   NEXUS-NESS Consortium
Published: September 2022

Mediterranean regions are impacted by critical water scarcity, climatic and demographic change, with national institutions and authorities that are called to take prompt and important decisions to support fair allocation of resources, mitigate conflicts and sustain social cohesion. Understanding the interlinkages of the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystem (WEFE) Nexus components is of fundamental importance for safe and sustainable management of urban, agricultural, and natural ecosystems. Nevertheless, WEFE Nexus knowledge and technology transfer is still falling behind with major technical and non-technical barriers that avoid the transition towards WEFE Nexus approaches. Multi-Sector, Multi-Disciplinary and Multi-Actor cross-cooperation and mutual trust are still lacking, with stakeholders and citizens that are not adequately informed and involved. The NEXUS Nature Ecosystem Society Solution or NEXUS-NESS project - funded by the PRIMA Programme under the 2020 Nexus Innovation Action - seeks to co-demonstrate with stakeholders a science-driven solution to mainstream WEFE Nexus in Mediterranean regions. NEXUS-NESS aims to co-produce and co-test with stakeholders WEFE Nexus management plans for fair and sustainable allocation of resources. NEXUS-NESS will produce trans-disciplinary datasets and scenarios integrating large scale WATNEEDS and river basin scale FREEWAT eco-hydrological models for building an operational NEXUS-NESS Service (NNS) transferring science-driven WEFE Nexus knowledge to address real case issues. NEXUS-NESS will operationalize the adoption of a WEFE Nexus bottom-up approach in four different case studies employing Living Lab and Responsible Research and Innovation (RRI) principles and change management by applying the RRI Roadmap. Four Nexus Ecosystem Labs (NELs) in Italy, Spain, Egypt and Tunisia were set up as preliminary important step to support NEXUS-NESS mission and goals. In the four NELs all stakeholders will be effectively engaged for creating long-lasting Innovation Ecosystems that are based on collaboration among academia, industry, different levels of the public sector and citizens. This contribution illustrates the preliminary insights, observed during the NELs start up, sharing the issues and opportunities that were co-assessed in the four labs of Val di Cornia in coastal Tuscany (Italy), the Duero basin (Spain), the Wadi Naghamish (Egypt) and the Wadi Jir basin (Tunisia).
Nature-based solution to study multiple ecosystems services in temporary wetlands: the case of the Sebou Delta in Morocco
Authors: Choukrani Hajar , Lacombe Guillaume , Hammani Ali , Taky Abdelilah , Belaud Gilles , Kuper Marcel
Published: September 2022

“Merjas” represent temporary wetlands in the Sebou-Delta in the northwest of Morocco. These temporary wetlands have been partially incorporated in a large-scale irrigation system, but this ecosystem still provides ecosystem services to the riparian population besides providing a habitat area for animal and plant species, contributing to flood control and other cultural ecosystem services. However, temporary wetlands and the services they provide are perceived differently by stakeholders. In particular, the opposition of viewing them as productive lands that need to be further developed through drainage and irrigation facilities or as buffer zones for flood protection generates conflicts of their use and creates an unknown future of them. Nature Based Solutions, as an emergent umbrella concept that is based on natural processes enhancing biodiversity and the provision of ecosystem services, provides an interesting lens to study the (conflicting) multiple ecosystem services in temporary wetlands.

The objective of this study is to analyze the hydrological dynamics of merjas on a spatio-temporal scale using remote sensing, and how existing and future irrigation development could affect the provision of ecosystem services.

Our work combines hydrological analysis using remote sensing with an analysis of ecosystem services, based on field surveys. The results of the study will be formalized in different management scenarios and then used for discussion in multi-actor workshops. Our multidisciplinary approach brings about the originality of the work in a low-informed context where access to data is difficult.

The use of NBS in the case of the Gharb plain could contribute to solving the problem of flooding and conserve its socio-environmental heritage. We developed a framework consisting of 3 steps: definition of the framework, identification of the challenge and co-creation of scenarios. For our case study, we highlight the ecosystem characteristics of the environment and the importance of the participatory approach for the success of NBS. This roadmap aims to provide the actors involved with an updated reflection on the developments that could be implemented for temporary wetlands in the Sebou-Delta and to develop an approach of interest to other wetlands elsewhere to preserve natural resources and taking into consideration the effects of climate change.
Eau, genre et défis globaux en Côte d’Ivoire. Water, gender and global challenges in Côte d’Ivoire . 
Authors: Borrell Estupina Valérie , Tchiakpe Alexis ,   V. BORRELL1 and A. TCHIAKPE2
Published: September 2022

In Africa, floods have become "classic" hazards (David, 2004) due to climate change and rampant and poorly regulated urbanization. Over a million and a half people are affected each year in Africa by flooding following heavy rains. Over the period from 2009 to 2014, there were a total of 74 deaths caused by flooding in the District of Abidjan. They are also responsible for dropping out of school, job losses, increasing insecurity (...) as are extreme drought events (days of the Africa-France Summit 2021).

The keys to a more socially equitable resilience of these territories, as presented by Matin et al. (2018), are based on the 4 pillars of inclusion, transformation, scale and subjectivity. In this sense, inclusion presupposes that all social groups can take part in the decision-making process, whether minority or informal, ranging from citizen participation mechanisms. It also assumes that decision-makers and main actors take the measure and be trained in its full integration in the establishment of participatory and decision-making processes. Training future international water leaders in the socially equitable resilience of territories in the face of extreme events exacerbated by global changes is therefore becoming a necessity. These two aspects are the subject of our study: the role of rural African women in the key processes of resilience in the face of extreme events, and innovative pedagogical methods making it possible to train the decision-makers of tomorrow to take this into account.

Our project was made possible by the merger between the European Master Charm-EU, born from the European alliance of universities between the Universities of Barcelona, ​​Montpellier, Eotvost, Utrecht and Trinity College, funded by ERASMUS, with the UNESCO Chair Water, Women, Decision-making Power of the Félix Houphouët Boigny University of Abidjan (Côte d'Ivoire) and of the UNESCO ICIREWARD Center of the University of Montpellier (France) as part of the ActNAO project, funded by the Research Institute for Development, the University of Montpellier and the UNESCO ICIREWARD center.

 

Mots clefs / keywords : Genre ; Femmes ; Participation et Pédagogie ; Abidjan ; Afrique centrale et de l’ouest ; Changements globaux ; Résilience ; Evénements extrêmes
Glaciers, snow and neglected forms of frozen water: Cryosphere components in the Trans-Himalaya of Ladakh, India
Authors: Schmidt Susanne , Passang Stanzin , Brombierstäudl Dagmar , Nüsser Marcus
Published: September 2022

In the semi-arid Trans-Himalayan region of Ladakh, meltwater supply from the cryosphere is essential for irrigated agriculture. Different meltwater sources are used during the agricultural production period. Apart from high altitude glaciers above 5200 m a.s.l. and permafrost which meltwaters become available in summer, runoff from seasonal snow cover and aufeis is mostly used to bridge recurrent water scarcity in spring. While glaciers and snow cover are “visible” sources, easily detectable by optical remote sensing data, permafrost and aufeis, a seasonal ice body created by successive freezing of flowing water onto the already frozen surface is mainly located along rivers and streams, are almost neglected in current research. The aim of the study is to inventory different components of the cryosphere and to analyse their seasonal variability and their general dynamics in the context of climate change. Based on different multi-temporal and multi-scale remote sensing data and techniques glacier changes are documented over long observation periods. The investigation of the seasonal snow cover is based on MODIS data and for the mapping of aufeis fields a time series analysis of Landsat data was conducted.
Hydrological Characterisation of Mediterranean Catchments
Authors: Allam Antoine , Moussa Roger , Najem Wajdi , Bocquillon Claude
Published: September 2022

The alarming climatic and anthropogenic impacts call for urgent adaptation and mitigation measures and water management policies that should be more based on regional research by deepening the knowledge on the spatial and temporal variability of hydrological resources all over the Mediterranean.

A climatic, physiographic, and hydrological homogeneity across the Mediterranean has been detected but not yet confirmed. Mediterranean climate is known for its precipitation seasonality and the alternation of humid winters and dry summers which conditions rivers flow regimes, landcover, agriculture and consequently any water resources management plan. Several physiographic traits could be also observed across the Mediterranean, like the elevated and exposed karstic features, and the cultivated and managed areas. Hydrologically, global river regimes were classified based on monthly average flows only, and Mediterranean regimes were identified under 3 of the 15 global classes with a clear relation to Köppen’s Mediterranean climate.

Thus, we first studied the flow regimes of 55 Mediterranean catchments to verify if Mediterranean rivers fall into same regime class. Second, we characterised the Mediterranean hydrological response through different water balance functional models as advanced by Budyko, L’vovich and elaborated by Ponce & Shetty and Sivapalan. We also defined from the functional model results the total runoff and groundwater runoff gains as the ratio of the runoff coefficients to annual precipitation, a notion advanced by Ponce and Shetty and elaborated as a sensitivity to precipitation and called elasticity by Harman. The analysis of the runoff gains and elasticity across the Mediterranean and through the climatic and physiographic classes characterised furthermore the hydrological behaviour similarity and variability, and the competition between the water balance components of the Mediterranean catchments.

The water balance analysis highlighted the Mediterranean trend following the general climatic setting from the wet Northern region to the arid Southern region; it also showed hydrological homogeneity for mountainous karstic and snow influenced catchments which yield the highest baseflows and runoff coefficients, especially those located in moderate climate region. However, they are the least sensitive to the humidity index P/Ep which make their hydrological behaviour very interesting to study under RCP 4.5 or RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios.
Development of flood risk and flood damage methodology
Authors: Hlinkova Maria
Published: September 2022

Floods methodologies includes variable indexes and indicators to asses and evaluate flood risk and flood damages. The most common indexes are hazard, vulnerability and exposure. The process of flood risk assessment and flood damage evaluation requires amount of input data to provide and to develop suitable maps with categorizied flood risk in the study area. Interviews and questionnaire surveys can be realized in the area of interest to obtain input data suitable for maps or other characterization needs. The present research focuses on current state of knowledges comparison and analysis of selected flood risk and flood damage methodologies. The second part of the paper provides description of the area of interest – the whole area of Slovak republik and overview of the data collection process.
Predictive performance of bias-corrected seasonal SEAS5 forecasts for Germany
Authors: Weber Jan Niklas , Lorenz Christof , Portele Tanja , Kunstmann Harald
Published: September 2022

For an optimized use of water resources for irrigation or power generation, knowledge about their expected availability in the coming months is essential. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) issues monthly ensemble forecasts for the next seven months (SEAS5 model). In order to be able to use these for Germany, we present an analysis of the temperature and precipitation forecast quality for Germany with a resolution on district level. ERA5 reanalysis data from ECMWF and raster observation data from the German Weather Service are used as a basis for comparison. To increase the performance, two bias corrections were tested, a mean value correction and a correction of both the mean value and the standard deviation. Using several quality parameters such as the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS), the Brier Skill Score (BSS) and the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, it is shown that the uncorrected SEAS5 seasonal forecasts at monthly resolution provide a significantly increased performance compared to purely climatological forecasts, mainly in the first Lead Month. The reliability (RV) averages 78% across years, months, regions, and variables, with the first forecast month providing a particularly good RV of 86%. All prediction months have positive CRPSS for the precipitation at all times for all regions, and the bias correction to the mean also improves the skill by an average of 33% based on the CRPSS. In addition, both bias corrections significantly improve the prediction quality of the above-average extremes (> 90th percentile) for temperatures and precipitation. Thus, the SEAS5 seasonal forecasts, together with subsequent bias correction procedures, open up the possibility of estimating expected water availability at the county level with forecast periods of several months.
The mechanisms by which a precipitation shift from snow to rain affects streamflow in the contiguous US: large sample data analysis
Authors: Wang Lina , Woods Ross
Published: September 2022

Climate warming has caused in a significant decrease for the snowpack, and earlier snowmelt onsets for many mountainous regions like the western United States. Changes in seasonal streamflow patterns have been observed, and these are mainly caused by those changes in snowpack. However, there are also changes in annual streamflow, which are associated with snow processes, but are not yet explained. To explore potential causes of a previously-recognized pattern of reduction in annual streamflow in snow-dominated catchments, we analyzed the sensitivity of seasonal streamflow to the average annual snow fraction in 253 snow-dominated catchments in the continental US. We find that places (and years) with higher mean annual snow fraction tend to have higher seasonal streamflow (mainly in spring, summer, and winter). We found that 91% (spring), 57% (summer), 22% (autumn) and 51% (winter) of these catchments showed a positive sensitivity of streamflow to snow fraction.

In order to explore the potential hydrological processes by which a change in snow fraction affects the seasonal streamflow for different places, we summarized four potential mechanisms according to a literature review. The mechanisms are described as (i) inputs exceed threshold, (ii) demand-storage competition, (iii) water-energy synchrony, and (iv) energy partitioning. We considered the effects that each mechanism would be expected to have on the seasonal runoff, and then associated this to the observed changes. How the snow change affects season runoff is a mixed combination of the four mechanisms for catchments in the west part of the continental US. The first and second mechanisms could be applied to explain the changes for catchments in the central part of the continental US. There are some catchments where we could only use the third mechanism to explain the changes we observed, and a few catchments could only use the third mechanism or the fourth mechanism to explain their changes, and these catchments are scattered around the continental US. These findings could provide evidence for how changes in snow affect hydrology, which may help society to better understand the effect of climate warming and help support water management for places which rely on snowmelt water.
Pembinaan Olahraga Karate Inkanas Di Kecamatan Minas Kabupaten Siak
Authors: Veji Kitra Yonlygus , Jatra Rices
Published: September 2022

Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui Pembinaan Olahraga Karate Inkanas di Kecamatan Minas Kabupaten Siak dari 3 aspek yaitu aspek atlet, aspek pelatih, dan aspek organisasi. Jenis penelitian ini adalah penelitian penelitian kuantitatif deskriptif. Populasi dalam penelitian ini adalah 31 orang. Teknik pengambilan sampel adalah total sampling dan jumlah sampel adalah 31 orang.  Instrumen yang digunakan adalah angket. Kesimpulan penelitian ini adalah 1) Pembinaan olahraga Karate Inkanas di Kecamatan Minas Kabupaten Siak ditinjau dari aspek atlet dikatagorikan sangat baik dengan persentase jawaban 86,8%. 2) Pembinaan olahraga Karate Inkanas di Kecamatan Minas Kabupaten Siak ditinjau dari aspek pelatih dikatagorikan sangat baik dengan persentase jawaban 81,7%. 3) Pembinaan olahraga Karate Inkanas di Kecamatan Minas Kabupaten Siak ditinjau dari aspek organisasi dikatagorikan sangat baik dengan persentase jawaban 90,0%. 4) Pembinaan olahraga Karate Inkanas di Kecamatan Minas Kabupaten Siak ditinjau dari keseluruhan aspek dikatagorikan sangat baik dengan persentase jawaban 86,2%
STUDY OF PARENTS` INFLUENCE OVER THE PHYSICAL ACTIVITY AND SPORTS OF ADOLESCENTS FROM DIFFERENT ETHNICITIES IN PLOVDIV
Authors:   Department of Nursing care, Faculty of Public Health, Medical University of Plovdiv, Bulgaria., Merdzhanova Elena , Angelova Penka ,   Department of Physiology, Medical Faculty, Medical University of Plovdiv, Bulgaria., Boyadjiev Nikolay ,   Department of Physiology, Medical Faculty, Medical University of Plovdiv, Bulgaria., Lalova Valentina ,   Department of Nursing care, Faculty of Public Health, Medical University of Plovdiv, Bulgaria., Petrova Gergana ,   Department of Nursing care, Faculty of Public Health, Medical University of Plovdiv, Bulgaria.
Published: September 2022

Purpose: To explore the influence of parents on the physical activity and sport of adolescents in families from different ethnic groups of Plovdiv Municipality. Material and methods: During the summer term of the 2018/19 academic year, a survey had been conducted among parents of the students who study in certain schools on the territory of the Plovdiv municipality (the city of Plovdiv and the village of Karadjovo). The subject of the study has been 185 parents of adolescents from three different ethnic groups-Bulgarians, Turkish and Roma. Have been developed and used specifically for this purpose an author's questionnaire for parents, which contains open, closed, and mixed questions. For the statistical processing, we have used the data analysis software IBM SPSS Statistics v. 25. Results: The subject of the study has been 185 parents from different ethnic groups. Bulgarians 96 (51.9%), Turkish 29 (15.7%) and Roma 60 (32.4%). Of all the parents at the time of the survey, only 23 (12.4%) played sports, 162 (87.6%) did not play sports, and 43 (23.2%) of the parents believed that additional sports would make it difficult for their children to prepare for school. Conclusion: Many parents are reluctant to engage in additional leisure activities for their children that would link them to restricting or disrupting their free time.
Could the association of sunitinib and stereotactic ablative radiotherapy lead to abscopal effect in metastatic renal cell carcinoma?
Authors:   Department of Radiation Oncology, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy., Deantoni Chiara L , Baroni Simone ,   Department of Radiation Oncology, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy., Foti Silvia ,   Department Unit of Oncology, Medical Oncology Department, IRCCS-Ospedale San Raffaele; Università Vita-Salute, Milano, Italy., Fodor Andrei ,   Department of Radiation Oncology, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy., Conte Gianluca Del ,   Department Unit of Oncology, Medical Oncology Department, IRCCS-Ospedale San Raffaele; Università Vita-Salute, Milano, Italy., Muzio Nadia G Di ,   Department of Radiation Oncology, IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute, Milan, Italy.
Published: September 2022

Simultaneous prescription of systemic targeted therapy and Stereotactic Ablative Radiotherapy (SABR) is being used increasingly in various histological types of oligometastatic/oligoprogressive tumors. The underlying mechanisms of the synergistic effect are not yet well known. This case report concerns the interaction between a tyrosine kinase inhibitor and SABR in a patient affected by oligoprogressive metastatic renal cell carcinoma.
A case of typical mycosis fungoides in an HIV-positive patient
Authors:   College of Medicine, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, USA., Kayishunge Delice , Ly Sophia ,   College of Medicine, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, USA., Ahmed Aadil ,   Department of Dermatology, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, USA., Wong Henry K ,   Department of Dermatology, University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences, USA.
Published: September 2022

Non-Hodgkin’s lymphomas in HIV patients are generally B-cell lymphomas. The coexistence of HIV-1 infection with Cutaneous T-Cell Lymphoma (CTCL) is an infrequent occurrence, particularly in the classic variety of Mycosis Fungoides (MF). This case demonstrates that in an HIV-1 positive patient, CTCL can manifest as MF with features comparable to those reported in the general population. We report a 52-year-old male patient with asymptomatic HIV-1 who presented with the eruption of pruritic papules with overlying grey scales over his torso and extremities for two years. In a biopsy specimen, small intraepidermal lymphocytes without significant atypia were detected. Immunohistochemistry confirmed the diagnosis of T-cell lymphoma. The disease had spread to lymph nodes throughout the body. This is one of the few cases in which a typical MF is described in an HIV-1 patient. MF can be difficult to identify owing to its slow progression and resemblance to other inflammatory conditions such as spongiotic dermatitis. While MF is a very uncommon sign in HIV-infected individuals, it should be included in the differential diagnosis of all patients presenting with relevant cutaneous manifestations.
Roth’s spots in leukemia
Authors:   Department of Emergency Medicine, Taichung Veterans General Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan., Chun Huang Chia
Published: September 2022

Roth’s spots are retinal hemorrhages with white or pale centers, which can be seen in numerous conditions. Ocular disorders have been described in 39.3% of patients with diagnosis of leukemia. Incidences of intraocular manifestations are 7.7% in patients of chronic leukemia. Mechanism of retinal hemorrhages is related to hyperviscosity syndrome caused by leukocytosisor direct infiltration. Fundoscopy is a mandatory examination by ophthalmologist in patients of leukemia with intraocular disorders. We present the case of Roth’s spots in a 32-year-old man of chronic myeloid leukemia.
PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors combined with chemotherapy in the treatment of thymic carcinoma metastasis to the liver
Authors:   Xiamen Key Laboratory of Endocrine-Related Cancer Precision Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361101, China., Chen Weiling , Huang Zhihang ,   Department of Cardiology Department, Xiang’an Hospital of Xiamen University, 2000 East Xiang’an Rd., Xiamen, China., Zhang Yongqu ,   Xiamen Key Laboratory of Endocrine-Related Cancer Precision Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361101, China., Chen Qun ,   Department of Clinical Research, Sun Yat-Sen University Cancer Center, 651 East Dongfeng Rd., Guangzhou 510060, China., Li Ronghui ,   Xiamen Key Laboratory of Endocrine-Related Cancer Precision Medicine, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361101, China.
Published: September 2022

Epithelial neoplasms of the thymus is a relatively rare malignancy. In this report, we present a case of thymic carcinoma of a 68-yearold man with hepatic metastasis, which with the severe hypokalemia, hypoproteinemia, and fatigue of concomitant symptom. After positive symptomatic treatment such as correction of electrolyte disorder, supplementation of albumin and nutritional support, the patient’s general condition recovered and improved. Then, we reviewed the literature on the treatment of thymic carcinoma, and decided to use immunotherapy combined with chemotherapy to treat this case of advanced thymic squamous carcinoma, expecting to have a good efficacy and improve the progression-free and overall survival.
Fortuitously detected Paget’s bone disease in a patient with TENIS syndrome on FDG PET/CT
Authors:   Laboratory of Biomaterials and Tissue Engineering, Faculty of Medicine and Health Technology, Tampere University, Korkeakoulunkatu 3, 33720 Tampere, Finland., Mishra Ayush
Published: September 2022

A 74-year-old lady presented with a complaint of progressive neck swelling for two years. FNAC from the swelling was suggestive of papillary carcinoma thyroid (PCT). She underwent total thyroidectomy with central compartment lymph node dissection. Histopathology revealed multifocal PCT with central compartment lymph node metastases. Her baseline stimulated sTg was 5.3 ng/ml after levothyroxine withdrawal. WBS showed uptake in the operative bed (not shown). She was treated with 100 mCi of I-131 and was kept on a suppressive dose of thyroxin hormone. Her sTg gradually increased (77.5 ng/ml) in follow-up after three years. WBS was negative for metastatic disease. She underwent FDG PET/CT, that revealed cervical and upper mediastinal lymph nodes. Apart from that, multiple pagetic lesions were also noted. The patient had a history of mild localized pain and tenderness over these. Her Serum Alkaline phosphatase level was elevated (269 U/L). The patient refused resurgery for cervical lymph nodes. She is on Zolendronic acid infusion and remains asymptomatic. She is in regular follow-up, and her suppressedsTg remains stable even after two years.
Asymptomatic patient: Incidental finding of lipoprotein glomerulopathy with ApoE Kyoto mutation
Authors:   Department of Pathology, United Christian Hospital, Hong Kong., Ling Cheuk-nam , Lo Chun-hai ,   Department of Pathology, United Christian Hospital, Hong Kong., Tsang Po-man ,   Department of Pathology, United Christian Hospital, Hong Kong., Cheng Shui-ying ,   Department of Pathology, United Christian Hospital, Hong Kong.
Published: September 2022

Lipoprotein glomerulopathy is an unusual kidney disease with clinical presentation of proteinuria and renal insuffciency. The diagnosis is based on histological examination, featuring lipoprotein thrombi in glomerular capillaries. We present here an unusual case of lipoprotein glomerulopathy detected during pre-employment checkup. Histopathology examination confirmed the diagnosis, and subsequent genetic test revealed ApoE Kyoto mutation.
Air on the brain: Cerebral embolism associated with outpatient line
Authors:   Allegheny Health Network, Pittsburgh, PA, USA, Haag Aaron Lee
Published: September 2022

We present a case of a 64-year-old male with a patent foramen ovale who suffered severe complications from a massive air embolism while accessing a tunneled CVC. Air embolism may occur in conjunction with trauma, diving accidents, hemodialysis, cardiopulmonary bypass surgery, neurosurgery, thoracic biopsies, or transpulmonary passage from barotrauma, but it is most often associated with central venous catheter (CVC) insertions [1]. Arterial air embolisms, particularly cerebral air embolisms, are a rare and potentially fatal event that may result in severe, irreversible neurological deficits [2]. High index of suspicion is necessary, especially in those with an underlying cardiac defect such as a patent foramen ovale (PFO), where a paradoxical embolism may occur. With an underlying PFO, a baseline left to right shunt may undergo reversal of the shunt due to a raise in the right atrial pressures, mostly associated with Valsalva, and thus result in cerebral arterial embolism [1,3].
Post-intubation tracheoesophageal fistula in severe SARS-CoV-2 - COVID-19 patient: Unexpected finding during swallowing test
Authors:   Division of Otorhinolaryngology, Department of Biotechnology and Life Sciences, University of Insubria, Ospedale di Circolo e Fondazione Macchi, Via Guicciardini 9, 21100, Varese, Italy, Elli Fabrizia
Published: September 2022

Introduction: COVID-19 pandemic, caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, led to an increase in intensive care admission for massive interstitial pneumonia. Many patients underwent long periods of endotracheal intubation for mechanical ventilation and subsequent tracheostomy. The most common complications related to these maneuvers are known: laryngotracheal granulomas, webs, stenosis and malacia. Less common complications are tracheal necrosis with trachea-esophageal or tracheo-arterial fistulas, caused by compression between the orotracheal tube cuff and the nasogastric tube. Case report: We present the case of a patient with severe COVID-19 associated pneumonia who underwent orotracheal intubation and prolonged mechanical ventilation for two months with unexplained episodes of food inhalation. During the swallowing test, it was observed inhalation, without natural passage of food from the glottic plane. Therefore, ENT specialist in swallowing, suspecting the feared tracheo-esophageal fistula, requested a double contrast esophageal xray that confirmed the diagnostic hypothesis. Thoracic surgery team performed surgical correction by resection and tracheal anastomosis with esophagoraffia. Discussion: TEF is a very rare, but potentially fatal, complication of invasive VM. Predisposing factors are prolonged periods of invasive VM, elevated cuff pressures, oversized endotracheal tubes, patient comorbidities, local and general infections, use of a nasogastric tube. The endoscopic swallow test is a relatively simple test, performed at the patient’s bed, that can identify oropharyngeal swallowing disorders and esophageal changes, such as tracheoesophageal fistula.
農田水利會資產屬於公有財產或私有財產之爭議──最高行政法院110年度抗字第131號裁定
Authors: 黃俊杰 黃俊杰
Published: September 2022

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