Scenarios for the development of the Organic farming sector in the light of the CAP 2023 – 2027
Authors:   Agricultural academy – Bulgaria, Institute of agricultural economics, Mitova Diliana 
Published: December 2023

The research aims to make a scenario analysis that will show what changes, perspectives and trends would be expected in the development of organic farming (OF) in our country, related to the change of main factors, mechanisms and means of support in the policy and with the objectives of the EU Green Deal. The study of the scenarios in the organic farming sector, their evaluation and the measurement of the probability that each of the options will happen is indicative of the future development of this sector, of the opportunities and prospects for it. It follows a quantitative approach to measure the possible changes in the organic farming sector. It is based on and is part of the work on the research project “Perspectives for Bulgarian agriculture and rural areas in the context of the CAP 2021 – 2027 and the EU Recovery Plan”, developed by a team led by associate professor Dr. B. Ivanov, IAI, Agricultural Academy – Sofia in 2021 – 2022. The research is based on the methodology developed for the purposes of the above-mentioned project, using the relevant algorithm, and the main applied methods are comparative assessment, probabilistic study with covariances, descriptive analysis, indicator method, expert assessment and statistical methods for determining trends (Ivanov et al., 2023). When developing the forecast scenarios, to track the possible consequences and effects of assuming different options for the development of OF in our country, two groups of indicators have been used – result and derivative ones. The average scenario score was used as an indicator of how likely the different scenarios were to occur. The specific scenarios and the average scores are determined within limits, according to the standard error and confidence interval according to the methodology of the above-mentioned project. Although the overall probability of the proposed three scenarios (pessimistic, normal and optimistic), measured by the probability coefficient, is unsatisfactory – 0.43, as well as the average scores for the pessimistic and moderate scenarios, the average score for the optimistic scenario is considered satisfactory. From the presented assumptions, estimates and probability scenarios, it can be concluded that the assumed changes in the indicators for the development of organic agriculture lead to relatively close probabilities for the occurrence of the optimistic and moderate scenarios. However, the optimistic scenario has the highest percentage – 18%, followed by the moderate scenario – 16%. I.e. the probability that organic agriculture will develop by 2027 according to the optimistic scenario is the highest. The realization of such a scenario by 2027 would be positive for Bulgarian agriculture in general and for OF in particular. This coincides with the trends that have been noticed recently – there is an increased interest of society in consuming organic products; at the same time, a number of EC- documents set goals for increasing the areas managed by organic farming methods. The increased public interest and concern for the protection of the environment and the health of people and animals has provoked a number of measures in both EU and national policy related to the support of the sector of OF.