bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Statistical downscaling of seasonal forecast temperature using a climate-informed AI approach
Authors: Díaz Esteban Yanet , Lin Qing , Hrast Essenfelder Arthur , Toreti Andrea , Heidari Fatemeh , Espitia Sarmiento Edgar Fabián , Xoplaki Elena
Published: March 2024

Climate predictions on seasonal timescales are of major importance for the scientific, planning and policy communities to understand the impacts of climate variability and change and emergent risks, and thus develop appropriate adaptation and mitigation strategies. Nevertheless, the coarse spatial scale of that data limits its use in decision making. Downscaling is therefore emerging as a solution to transfer the climate information to a scale suitable for impact studies and climate-related risk assessments. In this study, a method for downscaling seasonal forecast temperature is presented, that integrates a Deep Residual Neural Network (DRNN) with an analog-based approach to increase the information from climate predictors. The advantage of the proposed approach is the incorporation of relevant large-scale variables, such as the geopotential height from different ensemble members, which supplies the model with varied information from the atmospheric circulation instead of using only a single input field as a predictor. This allows the model to capture the complex relationships between climate drivers and local scale variables such as temperature, that provides a great potential to reduce the large biases in climate model outputs. The DRNN based downscaling is applied to minimum and maximum temperature from ECMWF seasonal forecast at 1° resolution, downscaled to a resolution of 1 arcminute (~1.2 km), in a region that covers Germany and surrounding areas. The results are assessed against observations using both deterministic and probabilistic metrics and show an overall agreement between the downscaled product and the ground truth. This work demonstrates the added value of post-processing of seasonal forecasts, especially for applications of early warnings of extreme events and the associated hazards on a sub-seasonal to seasonal scale.  
Real-time GPS vs full-GNSS time series accuracies estimations at RING INGV research infrastructure
Authors: Miele Pietro , Avallone Antonio , D'Ambrosio Ciriaco , Falco Luigi , Shi Du , Maorong Ge , Xinyuan Jiang , Roberto Devoti , Nicola Angelo Famiglietti , Carmine Grasso , Grazia Pietrantonio , Annamaria Vicari
Published: March 2024

The RING (Rete Integrata Nazionale GNSS) is a research infrastructure developed for accurately measuring deformations at different spatial and temporal scales in the Eurasia-Africa plate boundary region (Avallone et al., 2010). Currently, the RING network (http://ring.gm.ingv.it/) is composed of 280 real-time transmitting remote sites, 70% of which are now equipped with full-GNSS (GPS, Galileo, Glonass and Beidou) instrumentation. The data streaming, in standard RTCM v.3 format, from these sites to the acquisition centre in southern Italy (Sezione Irpinia, Grottaminarda, AV) is managed by a tuned Ntrip Caster (https://igs.bkg.bund.de/ntrip/bkgcaster).The typical magnitude of the strongest events that occurred in the last century in this region (5.5-7) should require high accuracy (2-3 cm) GPS/GNSS time series to properly observe both static and dynamic coseismic displacements and, then, to properly model the earthquake source. Furthermore, the detection of any afterslip or, in general, any transient deformation should require even better accuracy (< 2 cm). The real-time GPS/GNSS data analysis has been implemented by means of the RTPPP software developed by GFZ (Ge et al., 2012). This software allows the determination of various Precise Point Positioning products with increasing accuracy (standard PPP, PPP with ambiguity resolution [PPP-AR], and PPP with regional augmentation [PPP-RA]). We performed some preliminary investigations on different (limited in time) datasets and we compared GPS-only and full-GNSS results. In the case of GPS-only PPP-RA solutions, the accuracies estimated on 24-hour data for the whole network amount up to 1.7 cm and 6 cm for the horizontal and vertical components, respectively. In the case of full-GNSS solutions, the same approach (PPP-RA) allowed an improvement of about 22% on both horizontal and vertical components (1.3 cm and 4.6 cm). Furthermore, we compared both GPS-only and full-GNSS solutions with another method, i.e. by using a short-term accuracy analysis. Using 60-s or 120-s sliding windows, that should better simulate the time span for detecting coseismic displacements, we can achieve 0.5 cm and 1 cm for horizontal and vertical components, respectively, for GPS-only solutions, and 0.3 cm and 0.5 cm for full-GNSS ones.Finally, for a few examples of earthquakes that recently occurred in Italy, we will show comparisons between post processed high-rate solutions carried out by Gipsy-Oasis II solutions and those obtained by RTPPP simulating real-time time series. The obtained accuracies will demonstrate the reliability of the RING infrastructure real-time GNSS solutions for early warning and rapid response applications.  
A Streamlined Model for Assessing Global Industrial Water Footprint with Minimal Input Requirements
Authors: Karandish Fatemeh , Berger Markus
Published: March 2024

Water plays a pivotal role in fostering global sustainable development. Although the agricultural sector has rightfully received considerable attention for its predominant role in global water withdrawal (WW), the industrial sector has often been overlooked. Despite this neglect, the industrial sector significantly influences global WWs, contributing approximately 19% of the total according to FAO estimates. However, the water consumed within the industry necessitates substantial natural and economic investments for the construction of water supply facilities and the required energy. Hence, for the first time, we have developed a straightforward top-down model to quantify time-series high-resolution sub-sectoral industrial water footprints (WFs) globally. The foundational inputs for the model are derived from national statistics reported by FAO spanning the period from 1990 to 2019. Data gaps were addressed through a combination of interpolation and extrapolation methods. Subsequently, the national industrial WWs were downscaled within three distinct industrial sub-sectors: manufacturing, mining and quarrying, and electricity production. National data were further downscaled to grid levels, utilizing a 5x5 arc-minute resolution based on the EDGAR emission datasets. Sub-sectoral industrial WWs were multiplied by conversion ratios to derive the corresponding water footprints (WFs). The model's outcomes demonstrated significantly enhanced reliability in predictions compared to existing sophisticated models. Our findings align closely with AQUASTAT statistics, boasting an accuracy exceeding 90%, while predictions from other available models deviate by 16-71% in industrial water withdrawals (WWs). Furthermore, a robust overall correlation coefficient of 0.96 between our predicted sub-sectoral water footprints (WFs) and available measured statistics strongly indicates the accuracy of our developed top-down approach in accounting for sub-sectoral industrial WFs. As a result, our model can be effectively utilized for impact and scenario assessments, providing valuable insights to formulate effective strategies for addressing challenges in achieving objectives under SDG 6.
Seasonal forecast of the late boreal winter temperature based on solar forcing and QBO
Authors: Vokhmianin Mikhail , Salminen Antti , Mursula Kalevi , Asikainen Timo
Published: March 2024

The ground temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere winter is greatly influenced by the state of the polar vortex. When the vortex collapses during sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), rapid changes in stratospheric circulations propagate downward to the troposphere in the subsequent weeks. The ground effect following SSWs is typically manifested as the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our findings reveal a higher frequency of cold temperature anomalies in the Northern part of Eurasia during winters with SSWs, and conversely, warm anomalies in winters with a strong and stable vortex. This behavior is particularly evident when temperature anomalies are categorized into three equal subgroups, or terciles. Recently, we developed a statistical model that successfully predicts SSW occurrences with an 86% accuracy rate. The model utilizes the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) phase and two parameters associated with solar activity: the geomagnetic aa-index as a proxy for energetic particle precipitations and solar irradiance. In this study, we explore the model's potential to provide a seasonal forecast for ground temperatures. We assess the probabilities of regional temperature anomalies falling into the lowest or highest terciles based on the predicted weak or strong vortex state. Additionally, we demonstrate that the QBO phase further enhances the forecast quality. As the model provides SSW predictions as early as preceding August, our results carry significant societal relevance as well, e.g., for the energy sector, which is highly dependent on prevailing weather conditions.
A novel globally convergent maximizer for the multivariate carrier-phase integer ambiguity function
Authors: Massarweh Lotfi , Teunissen Peter
Published: March 2024

Current theory of integer inference, which is key to many carrier-phase driven observing systems, consists of a rich variety of different estimation principles, each with their own optimality and statistical properties. The various estimators can be classified into different classes of estimators, of which the integer estimation class is the smallest and the integer equivariant class the largest. Although the estimation theory for mixed integer models has matured significantly, there are still some important identifiable open unsolved problems. One of those concerns the way in which in practice the integer-equivariant baseline maximizer of the carrier-phase integer ambiguity function is resolved. Most of the methods employed in practice use rather ad hoc, brute-force grid search techniques, whereby proper considerations of the intrinsic properties of the objective function are lacking. As a result none of the available techniques have a demonstrated proven guarantee of global convergence. In this contribution we will present a novel algorithm for the numerical maximization of the multivariate carrier-phase integer ambiguity function. Our proposed method, which has finite termination with a guaranteed user-defined tolerance, is developed from combining the branch-and-bound principle with the projected-gradient-descent methodology, for which a special continuous differentiable convex-relaxation of the critical elements of the ambiguity objective function is constructed. The methodology of these three constituents is described in an integrated manner and numerical results are provided to illustrate the theory.
Using pine bark and mussel shells as soil amendments to establish a rehabilitation strategy for Cu polluted viticultural soils
Authors: Paiva Cristiana , Fernandes Beatriz , Machado Diogo , Nogueira Verónica , Calviño David , Cachada Anabela , Pereira Ruth
Published: March 2024

Cu tends to accumulate in the upper layers of vineyard soils, given the historical application of copper-based fungicides in viticulture. Reducing the susceptibility of soils to Cu contamination is crucial because the literature has previously extensively documented on the possible adverse effects of this accumulation in the soil to the various ecosystem compartments. This can be achieved through the development of practices that decrease its mobility and bioavailability in vulnerable soils (more acidic and poorer in organic matter), such as the use of amendments, that can modulate the behaviour of Cu in soils. Therefore, the potential of soil amendments to remediate copper polluted soils was assessed, with the aim of identifying a strategy to safeguard vulnerable soils to Cu. This was accomplished by incorporating two soil amendments - pine bark and mussel shell - to a viticultural soil spiked with different concentrations of Bordeaux mixture. The effects of the amendment’s addition to vineyard soils, their ability in reducing their vulnerability to Cu contamination and its mobilization to the aquatic compartment, were evaluated through a battery of ecotoxicological assays with both terrestrial and aquatic species. It was possible to assess if soil amendments modulated Cu bioavailability for soil biota, and to what extent these treatments have influenced Cu mobility to the aqueous phase.
For the most part, amendments were responsible for improving results of ecotoxicological assays, when comparing with those of the non-conditioned soil, being the aquatic plant L. minor the exception to this trend. Regarding Cu contamination, soil amendments brought benefits to the performance of all the tested species, which can be corroborated by the EC50 results. The EC50 values for these assays compared with the ones obtained for the non-conditioned soil were generally higher, although not in a linear way with increasing amendment concentrations. But in a general manner, the 24 mg kg-1 of the amendment’s mixture had a positive effect in improving soil habitat and retention functions.
This being said, the mixture of milled mussel shells and pine bark appears to have the potential of being used to improve the vulnerability of soils to Cu contamination, working as a conditioning agent mitigating Cu toxicity and its mobility in the soil. It was stated, however, that the effect of these amendments does not provide benefits in a linear relation with their concentration. Therefore, it is of high relevance to further study the underlying mechanisms for the verified reduction of Cu toxicity, to better select proper proportions and concentrations of such products for different soil types.
Distributed Acoustic Sensing measurements in a box: a case-study for laboratory landslide test
Authors: Fumagalli Micol , Piana Agostinetti Nicola , Crosta Giovanni Battista
Published: March 2024

Distributed Acoustic Sensing (DAS) is a novel technology for monitoring seismic waves that shake fiber optic cables (FOC) buried in the ground, at unprecedented spatial resolution as low as 20 cm. Such technology can be in principle applied to laboratory experiments aimed to reproduce landslide phenomena. Here we present a preliminary study of DAS measurements in a 2m x 1m sand-box, where piles of sand act as landslide analogues. Our preliminary results demonstrate the capability of DAS recordings in locating seismic events occurring in the sand-box, related to the growth of the sand piles. This study opens to the possibility of using DAS technology to monitor large-scale (1-10m) laboratory analogue experiments aimed to reproduce geophysical and tectonic processes.
Shoreline Change and Carbon Emission Analysis for Sustainable Coastal Area Management
Authors: Han Jeongwoo , Song Kihwan , Chon Jinhyung
Published: March 2024

The coastal area is a space where marine ecosystems and terrestrial ecosystems intersect, and is an important foundation for interaction between living organisms and the environment. Maengbang Beach in South Korea is an area where damage has occurred or is at risk of occurring due to coastal erosion, and has been designated as a coastal erosion management area for preventive management. However, as thermal power plants are built in the area, not only are there concerns about carbon emissions, but the coastline is retreating due to coastal erosion. In addition, various articles and problems have been raised about these issues, but there is a lack of research or practice that quantitatively diagnoses them. Therefore, research is needed to quantitatively analyze and diagnose the impact of various social and ecological systems, carbon emissions, and coastline reduction resulting from the development of the Maengbang Beach area. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the structure of the social-ecological system resulting from the construction and development of a thermal power plant at Maengbang Beach and to quantitatively analyze changes in carbon emissions and reduction of the coastline. To this end, first, we analyze the structure of problems that arise after the development of a thermal power plant at Maengbang Beach from the perspective of the social-ecological system, focusing on carbon emissions and coastline retreat. Second, we quantitatively analyze changes in carbon emissions at Maengbang Beach using techniques such as the Invest Carbon model and i-Tree. Third, we use techniques such as satellite images and Google Street View (GSV) to diagnose changes in the coastline of Maengbang Beach. This study is significant in that it analyzed various problems and issues that appear in Maengbang Beach from the perspective of an integrated social-ecological system, performed a diagnosis of the changes, and presented evidence. In future research, we plan to establish a scenario for the restoration and management of Maengbang Beach based on the results analyzed in this study, perform simulations on carbon emissions and changes in the coastline, and suggest a direction for sustainable management of coastal areas.
This research was supported by "Development of living shoreline technology based on blue carbon science toward climate change adaptation" of Korea Institute of Marine Science & Technology Promotion (KIMST) funded by the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries (KIMST-20220526).
Local and long-range transported sources of natural aerosols in southern Greenlandic fjord systems
Authors: Dyson Joanna , Bergner Nora , Favre Lionel , Heutte Benjamin , Weng Julian , Winiger Patrik , Nenes Athanasios , Violaki Kalliopi , Schmale Julia
Published: March 2024

The Arctic is warming up to four times faster than the global average with fragile fjord ecosystems in the relatively warm Southern Greenland being especially sensitive to changes across various facets of the environment. With longer and warmer summer melt periods leading to increased glacial melt with marine and land-terminating glaciers slowly receding, the potential of sediments from newly exposed glacial outwash plains to be aerosolized increases. At the same time biological productivity in the ocean is changing. Hence, the composition and sources of atmospheric aerosols responsible for the formation of clouds in this region are evolving and we expect this to influence both the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) and Ice Nucleating Particle (INP) populations. Given the complex terrain and mixture of ice, ocean and land in fjord systems, the dispersion of aerosols and gases originating at the surface is subject to lower atmosphere stability and dynamics before they can reach cloud level. In this presentation, we will show results from a comprehensive and extensive field campaign in the Kullajeq province of Southern Greenland in June-August 2023. We will present vertical aerosol size distributions, particle number concentrations and absorption measurements taken using a tethered balloon in addition to complementary ground based online aerosol measurements. Two key sources of aerosols will be discussed: near-daily local new particle formation (NPF), and long-range transported Canadian wildfire plumes. We will explore the following questions: Are aerosols from fjords and increased biological productivity the source of the frequent NPF observed in Narsaq, and how do aerosols from distant sources such as Canadian biomass burning effect the aerosol population in Southern Greenland?
The application of Google Earth Engine to monitor sugarcane development in India.
Authors: Joshi Neha , Simms Daniel , Burgess Paul
Published: March 2024

The Google Earth Engine platform has transformed access to long term scientific datasets as more than thirty years of image data are readily available for analysis on the cloud. Despite this rapid access to long term data and cloud computing resources of GEE, there is still the requirement to remove noise (e.g., from cloud and haze) and correct for the effects of calibration between image types to process raw data into information about changes in the Earth’s surface. Using the Python Earth Engine API, we developed an algorithm to combine timeseries datasets from high spatial resolution sensors (Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2) and filter noise whilst still retaining high temporal resolution. A second algorithm was then developed to automate the decomposition of pre-processed timeseries data into individual agricultural seasons for the extraction phenological stages for sugarcane fields across India. Our approach was developed and validated on over 800 sugar cane field parcels and overcomes the challenge of previous machine-learning methods for sugarcane monitoring using remote sensing that rely on information on planting and harvesting. Fully automated monitoring of sugarcane is possible over wide areas without the need to download image datasets or process time series data locally. This approach can significantly improve the sustainability of sugarcane production by optimising the harvest to maintain efficiency in the supply of sugarcane to mills during the crushing season and reduce waste by avoiding the harvest of immature cane. The use of GEE means that this approach can be easily modified for use with other crops and in other geographical areas to improve satellite-based monitoring of crops. These tools are essential for realising the goals of sustainable development, and time-series analysis can be used to help producers demonstrate commodities have not come from recently deforested land (for example, the EU regulation on deforestation-free products).
Water uptake depth of European beech, Douglas fir and Norway spruce – species-specific patterns, seasonal dynamics and mixture effects
Authors: Hackmann Christina , Paligi Sharath , Mund Martina , Hölscher Dirk , Ammer Christian
Published: March 2024

Trees are major regulators of the forest water balance. To stay vital, water loss via transpiration has to be compensated by root water uptake. However, it is often not clear where exactly the trees get their water from. This has become particularly relevant in central Europe, as forests are facing more frequent and intense droughts with climate change. It is known that water uptake strategies are species-specific, influenced by environmental conditions and, potentially, neighboring species. Yet, knowledge about species-specific patterns of water uptake depth and how it is affected by tree-species mixture is scarce. Stable water isotopes present a valuable tool to elucidate these belowground processes.For our study, we selected mixtures of European beech (Fagus sylvatica), the dominant broadleaved tree species in central Europe, with native, but drought-prone Norway spruce (Picea abies), and non-native, but supposedly more drought-resistant Douglas fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii), as well as the respective pure stands. We aimed to uncover the effect of (1) species identity, (2) species mixture and (3) environmental conditions on water uptake depth.  To achieve this, we conducted two sampling campaigns in climatically contrasting years: a natural abundance campaign in relatively wet 2021, covering 20 plots on 4 sites, and a tracer experiment focused on European beech and Douglas fir on a subset of plots, including weekly sampling of 12 trees throughout the drought summer 2022. We found species-specific patterns of water uptake depth, where Norway spruce tended to use the greatest share of shallow water, followed by European beech and Douglas fir. Within species, the data indicated differences in water uptake depth between pure and mixed stands, however, we did not detect a spatial differentiation between co-occurring species. Dry conditions tended to shift water uptake to deeper layers, with beech responding stronger than Douglas fir.Our results corroborate that species-specific traits have to be considered when assessing forest water pathways, especially in mixed forests and under drought. Considering central Europe, our data supports the assumption that Douglas fir may be more drought resistant than Norway spruce by tapping deeper water sources. In mixture, both European beech and Douglas fir seem to exploit similar soil depths, while none of the species is limited to the drought-prone topsoil.      
Impact of the 2021 Flood Disasters on human social and mental health, focusing on elderly people in Germany
Authors: Song Chen , Atun Funda , Blanford Justine Ianthe , Anthonj Carmen
Published: March 2024

Flooding is one of the most common environmental disasters that cause mental and physical health problems. Flooding can cause loss of life and damage to personal property and critical public health infrastructure. Elderly people are at particular risk of the effects of floods, and their implications on social and mental health. This study is being conducted in the Ahr Valley, Germany which was heavily flooded in July 2021 (Figure 1). This flood destroyed towns and villages in the valley, causing more than 180 casualties and huge material damage (Silvia et al., 2021). The sudden-onset flood disaster caught the Ahr basin residents by surprise and had an impact on the mental and social health of the affected people. This study addresses the mental and social health effects of the 2021 flooding in the Ahr Valley, Germany, on elderly people. Preliminary findings, the research approach to data collection, survey, challenges faced, and their implications on the progress of the project will be introduced. 
The evolution of a basaltic fissure eruption
Authors: Loisel Ariane , Llewellin Edward , Brown Richard , Capponi Antonio , Orr Tim , Patrick Matthew
Published: March 2024

Basaltic eruptions produce lava flows that have the potential to destroy local infrastructure and emit toxic gas and particles that may adversely impact public health. Predicting their style and evolution is therefore a key goal in volcanology. This requires an understanding of the multiphase flow processes that operate within the sub-volcanic system.Field observations of both solidified and erupting basaltic fissures at Kīlauea volcano (Hawai‘i, USA) are synthesised with laboratory analogue experiments to determine the evolving organisation of gas-driven flow patterns within basaltic feeder dyke systems, and their effects on eruptions. Our laboratory kit was designed to perform scaled analogue experiments of bubbly flows in a 3.0 x 2.0 x 0.03 m glass-walled slot. This geometry mimics the geometry of dykes that feed most basaltic eruptions, whereas previous experimental studies have usually assumed a cylindrical conduit. The role that localization of fissure segments plays in shaping eruption behaviour is explored by occluding parts of the top of the slot. We also consider the role played by flooding of the vent with lava, focussing on long-lived systems that are reproduced by a conical vent geometry.  We collate the imagery acquired during our analogue experiments with recent monitoring datasets and a detailed field investigation of the spatial organization of vents and drain-back structures on solidified fissures at Kīlauea to improve our understanding of the controls on the eruptive behaviour of basaltic systems. This study will help interpret the underlying flow patterns within feeder dykes from real-time gas and erupted lava flux measurements.
East Asian winter monsoon variability during the last 500 thousand years recorded by environmental magnetism of sediments in the Japan Sea
Authors: Wang Jiachun , Xuan Chuang , Wilson Paul
Published: March 2024

The East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) is driven by the dry and cold north-westerly winds blowing from central Asia towards the Western Pacific Ocean as atmospheric high-pressure cell develops over Siberia and Mongolia due to low continental temperatures during boreal winter. Today, the EAWM surface winds together with the prevailing mid-latitude upper troposphere westerly jet (WJ) winds transport hundreds of millions of tons of dust every year across East Asia and/or to the North Pacific and further. Various records of past EAWM and/or WJ variability are available but well-resolved records with (sub)orbital resolution to investigate the dynamics of and relationships between EAWM and WJ are rare. The Japan Sea, as the largest marginal sea located in mid-latitude East Asia, is significantly under the influence of the EAWM and WJ. Previous studies suggest that the composition, concentration, and size of magnetic particles in sediments are sensitive to changes in aeolian dust input. Here, we study the magnetic mineralogy and reconstruct high-resolution continuous environmental magnetic records spanning the last 500 kyrs using sediments cored during Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) Expedition 346 (Asian Monsoon) at Site U1424 in the Japan Sea. Our results suggest that magnetite is the dominant magnetic phase at Site U1424 and there is a significantly increased contribution of high-coercivity magnetic phase, presumably hematite transported through aeolian dust, in samples from glacial periods. Magnetic grain size proxy (kARM/k) of Site U1424 sediments appears to covary with the population of coarse particles (> ~14 μm) that are dominated by aeolian dust, and shows a striking similarity to published EAWM records, especially during the interglacials and glacial inceptions. During the glacial maxima, largely enhanced EAWM indicated by published records are, however, not shown in the Site U1424 kARM/k record. We suggest that Site U1424 kARM/k is a proxy for dust transportation to the Japan Sea modulated by EAWM intensity as well as interactions between EAWM and the WJ. During the interglacials and glacial inceptions when the main axis of WJ frequently reaches Northern China close to the dust source region of the EAWM, interactions between the EAWM and WJ during winter/spring at mid-level troposphere enable long-distance transportation of coarse dust particles (mainly modulated by EAWM) to the Japan Sea. During the glacial maxima, when the WJ main axis no longer frequently reaches the EAWM source regions, reduced interaction between WJ and EAWM prevented long-distance transportation of coarse dust particles. A conceptual model is also presented to summarise the consequences of changes in EAWM and WJ and their interactions over glacial and interglacial cycles at different locations along the Asian dust transportation pathway.
The Long-Term Evolution of Dust-Related New Particle Formation Events under Emission Reduction in Beijing
Authors: Shang Dongjie , Hu Min , Wu Zhijun , Guo Song
Published: March 2024

In urban and remote atmospheres, new particle formation (NPF) events often occur after dust storms, which can have further impacts on regional and global climate. Additionally, the levels of gaseous precursors and condensation sink (CS) resulting from anthropogenic emissions can also influence the occurrence and intensity of NPF events. Over the past decade, China has implemented various air quality improvement actions, leading to significant changes in air pollutant emissions. However, there have been limited studies on the long-term evolution of NPF events caused by the synergy of dust storms and anthropogenic emissions.This study aims to analyze the characteristics of dust-related NPF events in Beijing from 2009 to 2017 and compare them with non-dust NPF events. The results show that the formation rates of dust-related NPF events decreased due to the reduction of SO2 emissions. However, the growth rates remained stable, possibly due to the increasing oxidation capacity in Beijing. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the climate effects of natural dust under the influence of anthropogenic emission control measures.
Akyaka-Ula Region Tectonics based on Geodetic Observations
Authors: Turgut Muhammed , Özarpacı Seda , Özdemir Alpay , Ayruk Efe T. , Farımaz İlay , Doğan Uğur , Dikbaş Aynur
Published: March 2024

The Aegean region is under the influence of tectonic extension due to subduction zone along the Hellenic Arc. This extension leads to many earthquakes of magnitude 6 and above in the region. The earthquake that occurred on July 21, 2017, in Bodrum Mw 6.7 increased curiosity about the region due to the seismic activities in the Gulf of Gökova and the absence of an active fault in the area according to the active fault map published by the General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration (MTA). In the nearby region of the 2017 earthquake, there are the Gökova Fault Zone and the Fethiye-Burdur Fault Zone. Morphological linearity and the seismicity are observed between these two fault zones, and some recent studies indicate the existence of active faults. The aim of this study is to determine whether there are active faults in the Akyaka-Ula region with geodetic measurements. For this purpose we started to observe the area with GNSS campaigns and continuous data since 2021.For this purpose, the data of Turkish National Permanent GNSS Network (CORS-TR) continuous stations, Turkish National Fundamental GNSS sites campaign measurements and survey data of a GNSS network established by our research group were processed together. The GNSS network stations were strategically placed in both near field and far field to the potential fault. GNSS data processed by using Bernese 5.2 software. According to the calculations based on the data from TNPGN-Active and TNFGN stations, the region exhibits an southwestward movement at a rate of approximately 3cm/year.This work is supported by TUBITAK Project Number 121Y3
Incorporating climate change projections into operational debris flow hazard mapping: Initial insights from the Toverino River Basin in South Tyrol (Eastern Italian Alps).
Authors: Bozzoli Laura , Crespi Alice , Steger Stefan , Moreno Mateo
Published: March 2024

Debris flows represent a typical hazard of Alpine mountainous areas, which can generate serious impacts on natural and socio-economic systems of affected territories. In the recent years, intense precipitation events caused numerous damage-causing erosional processes and mass movements, including debris flows, within Alpine torrential channels. Changes in the intensity or frequency of heavy precipitation events under climate change are likely to influence debris-flows occurrence. Understanding ongoing and future changes in debris flow hazard is essential for risk management procedures in Alpine territories, in particular for delineating current and future hazard zones. Since the underlying debris-flow simulations frequently build upon historical statistics of triggering rainfall intensities, accounting for non-stationary precipitation conditions may be relevant for further improving the management of debris-flow risk in the context of climate change.This work tests a modelling workflow to explore how changes in the intensity and frequency of heavy rainfall, can be incorporated into official hazard assessment procedures and if such changes lead to relevant alterations in the current zonation patterns. Possible changes in the Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves are derived from observations and climate model projections and corresponding hydrological responses are simulated through the Peakflow model. Hydraulic processes are then modelled by entering resulting hydrographs as input of the WEEZARD software and outcomes for the current and future climate conditions are compared. The contribution presents the first results obtained for the Toverino river test basin in the Province of South Tyrol (Eastern Italian Alps), and it discusses the strengths and limitations of integrating a climate-change perspective into standardized debris-flow hazard zonation procedures.The research leading to these results has received funding from Interreg Alpine Space Program 2021-27 under the project number ASP0100101, “How to adapt to changing weather eXtremes and associated compound and cascading RISKs in the context of Climate Change” (X-RISK-CC).
Bridge Failure and Consequences: the Existing Infrastructures Need of Mitigation Techniques
Authors: Giaretta Pietro , Salandin Paolo
Published: March 2024

Bridges represent a critical issue in case of hazardous events, like extreme floods and debris flows, being their proper operation of fundamental relevance to avoid cascading effects on population.The reduction of the risk of failure of river crossings is fundamental to ensure the service given by the infrastructural network for the safety of the populations. The serviceability of the road and railway network must be guaranteed during hazardous events, when the efficiency of the infrastructure becomes fundamental to ensure the mobility of the rescue and a possible evacuation of the inhabitants during critical situations. Moreover, the safety of the bridge affects the surrounding environment with impacts on social and economic activities, representing a connection between different populations living along the sides of the river.Hydraulic phenomena are responsible of more than 50% of bridge failure (e.g. Montalvo et al., 2020; Wardhana & Hadipriono, 2003), and scouring around piers and abutments always causes serious damages if proper deepening of foundation is not provided in the design. These aspects are exacerbated due to the climate change that in the last decades increases the frequency of extreme events, occurring flood events more often than in the past (e.g. Seneviratne et al., 2021). Lacks in scientific and technical knowledges have led in the past to the realization of inadequate foundations, and this fact joined with the occurrence of hazardous events in the climate change context, amplifies the risk of failure of bridges. However, many bridges realized in the past are actually still working probably thanks to the ancient custom of filling the riverbed around bridge piers and abutments with stones and boulders after relevant flood events as an empirical maintenance technique.Therefore, the effectiveness of the described technique to reduce the risk of failure needs to be investigated to establish its effectiveness. Here this is done by physical modelling of the sediment-flow-structures interaction, technique that leads the possibility to check the performances of countermeasures like riprap mattresses, investigating the size of the boulders, the lined area, and their durability over time.The experiments have been developed in a rectangular flume 1 m wide and 15 m long, using quite uniform sands (median grain size d50=0.4mm) to simulate the riverbed. Different pier geometries and water depths are considered in the experiments developed in steady state clear water conditions. According to the Froude and Shields similitudes, different arrangements and boulders size have been tested, evaluating the scour evolution in long time experiments.The effectiveness of the aforementioned maintenance techniques is analysed to understand the reduction of the risk of failure of bridges to limit the resulting cascading effects.
Antarctic water stable isotopes in the global atmospheric model LMDZ6: from climatology to boundary layer processes
Authors: Dutrievoz Niels , Agosta Cécile , Risi Camille , Vignon Étienne , Nguyen Sébastien , Landais Amaelle , Fourré Elise , Leroy-Dos Santos Christophe , Casado Mathieu , Ollivier Inès , Jouzel Jean , Roche Didier , Minster Benedicte , Prié Frédéric
Published: March 2024

Water-stable isotopic compositions of snow or ice (here δ18O and δD) represent the main way to reconstruct past temperature in Antarctica, and one way to interpret these isotopic signals is through the use of isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation models. In this study, we combine isotopic observations from surface snow samples, daily precipitation and water vapour to evaluate the LMDZ6iso model in Antarctica from climatic to seasonal and sub-daily time scale. Time-averaged δ18O in precipitation from LMDZ6iso for the period 1980-2022 is in excellent agreement with δ18O of surface snow samples across the continent, but there is a strong disagreement for d-excess at cold temperature sites. For sub-annual time scale analyses, we focus on two sites in East Antarctica: the coastal station Dumont d'Urville and the continental station Concordia. The model accurately reproduces the seasonal isotopic cycle of daily precipitation at both stations, with better performances at Concordia. Moving from statistical evaluation to process analyses, we use water vapour isotopes to study water exchanges in the boundary layer. LMDZ6iso performs well in representing the observed diurnal isotope cycle at both sites. However, the model simulates a larger vapour δ18O depletion than observed during the night at Concordia. We analyse the contribution of each physical process affecting isotope concentrations in LMDZ6iso to show what controls the vapour isotope signal. At Concordia, surface sublimation during the day is the main driver of the diurnal cycle of vapour isotopes, whereas at Dumont d'Urville, daily isotope variations are driven by surface sublimation and turbulence during the day and by air advection from the katabatic flow during the night. 
Subsurface mass modelling at Theistareykir geothermal field, Iceland, using hybrid gravimetry.
Authors: Giuliante Beatrice , Jousset Philippe , Krawczyk Charlotte , Hinderer Jacques , Riccardi Umberto , Portier Nolwenn , Forster Florian , Mortensen Anette K.
Published: March 2024

Time lapse gravity measurements can give information on underground mass redistribution. Observations are especially valuable over the course of subsurface use, for instance during geothermal exploration of an area. To monitor the mass transfer of underground geothermal fluids associated with the harnessing of a hydrothermal system and to assess its long-term sustainability, we have performed long-term observations at Theistareykir (Icelandic North volcanic zone). In this study, we model the mass and fluid displacement through the use of the hybrid gravimetry technique. Hybrid gravimetry is a method which consists of the combination of several complementary gravity observations. At Theistareykir, the following experiments are collecting data since 2017:micro-gravity time lapse relative measurements are repeated yearly on a pre-designed network of points;
relative gravity measurements are recorded continuously at several multi-parameter stations deployed within and outside the geothermal area. Each station is equipped with a superconducting or a spring gravimeter as well as a GNSS receiver, a broadband seismometer and hydrological and weather sensors.
absolute gravity measurements are collected yearly, to constrain the instrumental drift of the relative gravimeters.
 Here, we present the complete time series recorded by two superconducting gravity meters at Theistareykir since 2017. Gravity changes associated with potential vertical displacements of the continuous gravity meters are obtained from GNSS data, and removed from the raw data. Similar reductions are performed for other contributions from the meteorological data (pressure, snow height). The reduced time series have been used to obtain an accurate local Earth tide model. Such model is subtracted from the continuous gravity records in order to obtain the gravity residual, sensitive to the geothermal activities (injection, extraction).From the analysis of the gravity time series we notice gravity decrease at the production site. This trend is also visible from the time lapse gravity changes maps, obtained by the integration of micro-gravity data with ground displacement data. Patterns from the spatial maps of gravity changes show gravity increase southwards of the injection area, suggesting drainage of the injected water along the Tjamaras fault. The modelling results are compared with mass changes estimated from the injection and production rates, provided by Landsvirkjun, the operating energy company, thereby constraining the interpretation. Ongoing work encompasses forward modelling approaches to quantify mass transfers (extraction, injection, recharge, atmospheric losses) within the geothermal system.
EUMETSAT efforts to establish the European (NRT) satellite constellation for aerosol & fire monitoring. Current status and upcoming developments with Sentinel-3 and MTG.
Authors: Chimot Julien , Meraner Andrea , Martins Edouard , Joro Sauli , Fougnie Bertrand , Bojkov Bojan
Published: March 2024

Since 2014, EUMETSAT is leading the establishment for the European Near Real Time (NRT) and operational satellite constellation dedicated to the monitoring of aerosols and some of their sources, like wildfires. On top of that, EUMETSAT is developing the Level-2 (L2) NRT satellite Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) products and intensively works with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to prepare the future operational assimilation by the Copernicus Atmospheric Monitoring Service (CAMS).Our presentation will focus on the current status of the NRT aerosol products from the Copernicus Sentinel-3 mission, the challenges, and their evolution. It will notably address the current quality of the AOD data from the Collection 3 as derived and operationally disseminated by EUMETSAT from the Optimized Simultaneous Surface Aerosol Retrieval (OSSAR-CS3) processing chain, the planned evolution with the Day-2/Day-3 developments with notably the NRT SYNergy items, and also the new Aerosol Layer Height (ALH) developments under preparation from the O2-A Sentinel-3 bands.The NRT Aerosol products are jointly produced with the NRT Fire Radiative Power products from Sentinel-3, hence providing key information on some important aerosol emission sources. Consistency across these two datasets will be addressed. These products provide the foundation of the upcoming NRT aerosol and fire developments under preparation for the Flexible Combined Imager (FCI) instrument onboard the Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) platform.