bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Reflectance spectroscopy of indoor settled dust in Tel Aviv, Israel: comparison between the spring and the summer seasons
Authors: Chudnovsky A. A. , Ben-Dor E. , Saaroni H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The influence of mineral and anthropogenic dust components on the VIS-NIR-SWIR spectral reflectance of artificial laboratory dust mixtures was evaluated and used in combination with Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression to construct a model that correlates the dust content with its reflectance. Small amounts of dust (0.018–0.33 mg/cm2) were collected using glass traps placed in different indoor environments in Tel Aviv, Israel during the spring and summer of 2005. The constructed model was applied to reflectance spectroscopy measurements derived from the field dust samples to assess their mineral content. Additionally, field samples were examined using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to identify the most representative spectral pattern for each season. Across the visible range of spectra two main spectral shapes were observed, convex and concave, though spectra exhibiting hybrid shapes were also seen. Spectra derived from spring season dust samples were characterized mostly by a convex shape, which indicates a high mineral content. In contrast, the spectra generated from summer samples were characterized generally by a concave shape, which indicates a high organic matter content. In addition to this seasonal variation in spectral patterns, spectral differences were observed associated with the dwelling position in the city. Samples collected in the city center showed higher organic content, whereas samples taken from locations at the city margins, near the sea and next to open areas, exhibited higher mineral content. We conclude that mineral components originating in the outdoor environment influence indoor dust loads, even when considering relatively small amounts of indoor settled dust. The sensitive spectral-based method developed here has potentially many applications for environmental researchers and policy makers concerned with dust pollution.
Multi-station synthesis of early twentieth century surface atmospheric electricity measurements for upper tropospheric properties
Authors: Harrison R. G. , Bennett A. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The vertical columnar current density in the global atmospheric electrical circuit depends on the local columnar resistance. A simple model for the columnar resistance is suggested, which separates the local boundary layer component from the upper troposphere cosmic ray component, and calculates the boundary layer component from a surface measurement of air conductivity. This theory is shown to provide reasonable agreement with observations. One application of the simple columnar model theory is to provide a basis for the synthesis of surface atmospheric electrical measurements made simultaneously at several European sites. Assuming the ionospheric potential to be common above all the sites, the theoretical air-earth current density present in the absence of a boundary layer columnar resistance can be found by extrapolation. This is denoted the free troposphere limit air-earth current density, J0. Using early surface data from 1909 when no ionospheric potential data are available for corroboration, J0 is found to be ~6 pA m−2, although this is subject to uncertainties in the data and limitations in the theory. Later (1966–1971) European balloon and surface data give J0=2.4 pA m−2.
Rainfall-triggered landslides, anthropogenic hazards, and mitigation strategies
Authors: Larsen M. C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Rainfall-triggered landslides are part of a natural process of hillslope erosion that can result in catastrophic loss of life and extensive property damage in mountainous, densely populated areas. As global population expansion on or near steep hillslopes continues, the human and economic costs associated with landslides will increase. Landslide hazard mitigation strategies generally involve hazard assessment mapping, warning systems, control structures, and regional landslide planning and policy development. To be sustainable, hazard mitigation requires that management of natural resources is closely connected to local economic and social interests. A successful strategy is dependent on a combination of multi-disciplinary scientific and engineering approaches, and the political will to take action at the local community to national scale.
Evolution of the 2006–2007 El Niño: the role of intraseasonal to interannual time scale dynamics
Authors: McPhaden M. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We describe development of the 2006–2007 El Niño, which started late, ended early and was below average strength. Emphasis is on the interplay between large scale, low frequency (i.e., seasonal-to-interannual time scale) deterministic dynamics and episodic intraseasonal wind forcing in the evolution of the event. Efforts to forecast the El Niño are reviewed, with discussion of factors affecting its predictability. Perspectives on the contemporaneous development of an Indian Ocean Dipole Zonal Mode event in 2006 and possible influences of global warming on the ENSO cycle, which exhibited unusual behavior in the first decade of the 21st century, will also be presented.
Space storms as natural hazards
Authors: Dorman L. I. , Ptitsyna N. G. , Villoresi G. , Kasinsky V. V. , Lyakhov N. N. , Tyasto M. I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Eruptive activity of the Sun produces a chain of extreme geophysical events: high-speed solar wind, magnetic field disturbances in the interplanetary space and in the geomagnetic field and also intense fluxes of energetic particles. Space storms can potentially destroy spacecrafts, adversely affect astronauts and airline crew and human health on the Earth, lead to pipeline breaking, melt electricity transformers, and discontinue transmission. In this paper we deal with two consequences of space storms: (i) rise in failures in the operation of railway devices and (ii) rise in myocardial infarction and stroke incidences.
Women's role in adapting to climate change and variability
Authors: Carvajal-Escobar Y. , Quintero-Angel M. , García-Vargas M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Given that women are engaged in more climate-related change activities than what is recognized and valued in the community, this article highlights their important role in the adaptation and search for safer communities, which leads them to understand better the causes and consequences of changes in climatic conditions. It is concluded that women have important knowledge and skills for orienting the adaptation processes, a product of their roles in society (productive, reproductive and community); and the importance of gender equity in these processes is recognized. The relationship among climate change, climate variability and the accomplishment of the Millennium Development Goals is considered.
Great and old earthquakes against great and old paradigms – paradoxes, historical roots, alternative answers
Authors: Scalera G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The similarity of the vertical displacements shown by case-history extreme-magnitude earthquakes are scrutinised (Chile 1960, Alaska 1964, Sumatra 2004, ...). A common interpretation – an uprising of lithospheric material – can be found, which is supported by the irregularities of the hypocentres distribution along the Wadati-Benioff zones. In the case of major South American earthquakes, a volcanic eruptions-earthquakes correlation is recognisable. Further support to this interpretation is the displacement of the Earth's instantaneous rotation pole – ≈3.0 mas (≈10 cm), observed at ASI of Matera, Italy – the seismic data (USGS) in the two days following the main shock, the geomorphologic data, and the satellite data of uplift/subsidence of the coasts (IGG) make possible a new interpretation of the Great Sumatran earthquake (26 December 2004) based on the second conjugate – nearly vertical – CMT fault plane solution. All this converges toward different causes of seismogenetic processes, strongly supporting a deep origin of disturbances, fluxes of materials leading to more or less sudden movements of masses, and phase changes, which lead to either earthquakes or silent-slow events in Wadati-Benioff zones. A reinterpretation of the geodynamics of the active margins and mountain building is proposed with a heuristic model that does not resort to large-scale subduction, but only to isostatic uplift of deep material intruding between two decoupling plates in a tensional environment. Concomitant phase changes toward less-packed lattice and buoyancy effect caused by the Clapeyron slope can help the extrusion of material over the m.s.l., constituting an orogenic process. The phenomena expected to occur in the model directly and harmoniously contribute to the building up of the surface geophysical and geomorphological features of the orogenic zones.
Estimation of Vs profile using its natural frequency and Rayleigh-wave dispersion characteristics
Authors: Tokeshi K. , Karkee M. , Cuadra C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The evaluation of the natural frequency of random Vs profiles before analyzing the fundamental Rayleigh-wave dispersion characteristics is proposed in this paper. The inclusion of this parameter optimizes the effectiveness of random inverse searching to estimate Vs profiles. To demonstrate this method, a numerical test was performed using the "experimental" Rayleigh-wave dispersion curve obtained for a fictitious TEST site.
First results on a process-oriented rain area classification technique using Meteosat Second Generation SEVIRI nighttime data
Authors: Thies B. , Nauss T. , Bendix J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A new technique for process-oriented rain area classification using Meteosat Second Generation SEVIRI nighttime data is introduced. It is based on a combination of the Advective Convective Technique (ACT) which focuses on precipitation areas connected to convective processes and the Rain Area Delineation Scheme during Nighttime (RADS-N) a new technique for the improved detection of stratiform precipitation areas (e.g. in connection with mid-latitude frontal systems). The ACT which uses positive brightness temperature differences between the water vapour (WV) and the infrared (IR) channels (ΔTWV-IR) for the detection of convective clouds and connected precipitating clouds has been transferred from Meteosat First Generation (MFG) Metesoat Visible and Infra-Red Imager radiometer (MVIRI) to Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) Spinning Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager (SEVIRI). RADS-N is based on the new conceptual model that precipitating cloud areas are characterised by a large cloud water path (cwp) and the presence of ice particles in the upper part of the cloud. The technique considers information about both parameters inherent in the channel differences ΔT3.9-10.8, ΔT3.9-7.3, ΔT8.7-10.8, and ΔT10.8-12.1, to detect potentially precipitating cloud areas. All four channel differences are used to gain implicit knowledge about the cwp. ΔT8.7-10.8 and ΔT10.8-12.1 are additionally considered to gain information about the cloud phase. First results of a comparison study between the classified rain areas and corresponding ground based radar data for precipitation events in connection with a cold front occlusion show encouraging performance of the new proposed process-oriented rain area classification scheme.
The flood event that affected Badajoz in November 1997
Authors: Lorente P. , Hernández E. , Queralt S. , Ribera P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The flooding episode of November 1997 in Badajoz was one of the most dramatic catastrophes in Spain: as a result, there were 21 fatalities and huge financial damages. The main purpose of this work is to assess the prevailing synoptic conditions as well as detailing the mesoscale effects by means of moisture sources and dynamic and thermodynamic instability analysis involved in the November 1997 Spanish severe weather episode. In order to achieve the above, this flood event is described in terms of moisture content evolution by means of individual particle simulation along 3-day back-trajectories. A Lagrangian model is applied in order to characterize the atmospheric particles involved in the focused case (localization, height and specific humidity) which give rise to sudden precipitation stream. Geopotential height and temperature fields were used to describe the synoptic situation. Thermodynamic indices, such as CAPE, SWEAT and KI, and dynamic parameters like potential vorticity anomaly at 330 K isentropic surface and Q vector divergence were also calculated in order to complete the analysis and to give a thorough weather frame taking into account the atmospheric instability. The results of this work suggest this flood event was due mainly to strong dynamic instability along with large amounts of moisture advected by a trough, while the thermodynamic instability played a secondary role. Finally, a new methodology based on a technique proposed by Tremblay (2005) has been developed in order to separate the precipitation into stratiform and convective components. It is evident that the event was associated with a predominant convective regime.
Hydrometeorological and vegetation indices for the drought monitoring system in Tuscany Region, Italy
Authors: Caparrini F. , Manzella F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We present here the first experiments for an integrated system that is under development for drought monitoring and water resources assessment in Tuscany Region in central Italy. The system is based on the cross-evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Vegetation Indices from remote sensing (from MODIS and SEVIRI-MSG), and outputs from the distributed hydrological model MOBIDIC, that is used in real-time for water balance evaluation and hydrological forecast in the major basins of Tuscany. Furthermore, a telemetric network of aquifer levels is near completion in the region, and data from nearly 50 stations are already available in real-time. Preliminary estimates of drought indices over Tuscany in the first eight months of 2007 are shown, and pathway for further studies on the correlation between patterns of crop water stress, precipitation deficit and groundwater conditions is discussed.
Microwave single-scattering properties of randomly oriented soft-ice hydrometeors
Authors: Casella D. , Mugnai A. , Sanò P. , Formenton M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Large ice hydrometeors are usually present in intense convective clouds and may significantly affect the upwelling radiances that are measured by satellite-borne microwave radiometers – especially, at millimeter-wavelength frequencies. Thus, interpretation of these measurements (e.g., for precipitation retrieval) requires knowledge of the single scattering properties of ice particles. On the other hand, shape and internal structure of these particles (especially, the larger ones) is very complex and variable, and therefore it is necessary to resort to simplifying assumptions in order to compute their single-scattering parameters. In this study, we use the discrete dipole approximation (DDA) to compute the absorption and scattering efficiencies and the asymmetry factor of two kinds of quasi-spherical and non-homogeneous soft-ice particles in the frequency range 50–183 GHz. Particles of the first kind are modeled as quasi-spherical ice particles having randomly distributed spherical air inclusions. Particles of the second kind are modeled as random aggregates of ice spheres having random radii. In both cases, particle densities and dimensions are coherent with the snow hydrometeor category that is utilized by the University of Wisconsin – Non-hydrostatic Modeling System (UW-NMS) cloud-mesoscale model. Then, we compare our single-scattering results for randomly-oriented soft-ice hydrometeors with corresponding ones that make use of: a) effective-medium equivalent spheres, b) solid-ice equivalent spheres, and c) randomly-oriented aggregates of ice cylinders. Finally, we extend to our particles the scattering formulas that have been developed by other authors for randomly-oriented aggregates of ice cylinders.
An investigation of the effects of model structure on model performance to reduce discharge simulation uncertainty in two catchments
Authors: Zhang X. , Hörmann G. , Fohrer N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper investigates the variations of model performance caused by different model structures in both flow processes and model complexity level. Two case studies indicate that model efficiency is strongly dependent on model structure. The resulting substantial variation in both the model efficiency and the hydrographs from different model structures is used to estimate the structural uncertainty. The results help to select the most appropriate model adapted to local situations, which reveal great conformity with the actual hydrological patterns in both study basins.
Non-invasive methods applied to the case of Municipal Solid Waste landfills (MSW): analysis of long-term data
Authors: Scozzari A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This work presents and discusses a methodology for modeling the behavior of a landfill system in terms of biogas release to the atmosphere, relating this quantity to local meteorological parameters. One of the most important goals in the study of MSW sites lies in the optimization of biogas collection, thus minimizing its release to the atmosphere. After an introductory part, that presents the context of non-invasive measurements for the assessment of biogas release, the concepts of survey mapping and automatic flux monitoring are introduced. Objective of this work is to make use of time series coming from long-term flux monitoring campaigns in order to assess the trend of gas release from the MSW site. A key aspect in processing such data is the modeling of the effect of meteorological parameters over such measurements; this is accomplished by modeling the system behavior with a set of Input/Output data to characterize it without prior knowledge (system identification). The system identification approach presented here is based on an adaptive simulation concept, where a set of Input/Output data help training a "black box" model, without necessarily a prior analytical knowledge. The adaptive concept is based on an Artificial Neural Network scheme, which is trained by real-world data coming from a long-term monitoring campaign; such data are also used to test the real forecasting capability of the model. In this particular framework, the technique presented in this paper appears to be very attractive for the evaluation of biogas releases on a long term basis, by simulating the effects of meteorological parameters over the flux measurement, thus enhancing the extraction of the useful information in terms of a gas "flux" quantity.
Applicability of a forecasting chain in a different morphological environment in Italy
Authors: Gabellani S. , Giannoni F. , Parodi A. , Rudari R. , Taramasso A. C. , Roth G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The operational meteo-hydrological forecasting chain of the Liguria Region (NW Italy) is applied to a different morphoclimatic environment, such as the Emilia Romagna Region (N Italy). Modification to the chain, both in models and in procedures, are introduced to overcome problems related to medium dimension catchments (A≈1000km2), characterized by complex altimetry profiles and antropical interventions along the river. The main feature of the original operational procedure, that is the probabilistic approach, is maintained. Hydraulic hazard reduction through artificial reservoirs management is exploited with reference to a specific event occurred on the Reno basin (Emilia Romagna Region).
Tropical tele-connections to the Mediterranean climate and weather
Authors: Alpert P. , Price C. , Krichak S. O. , Ziv B. , Saaroni H. , Osetinsky I. , Barkan J. , Kishcha P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Some strong natural fluctuations of climate in the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) region are shown to be connected to the major tropical systems. Potential relations between EM rainfall extremes to tropical systems, e.g. El Niño, Indian Monsoon and hurricanes, are demonstrated. For a specific event, high resolution modelling of the severe flood on 3-5 December 2001 in Israel suggests a relation to hurricane Olga. In order to understand the factors governing the EM climate variability in the summer season, the relationship between extreme summer temperatures and the Indian Monsoon was examined. Other tropical factors like the Red-Sea Trough system and the Saharan dust are also likely to contribute to the EM climate variability.
The meteorological model RAMS at Crati Scrl
Authors: Federico S. , Avolio E. , Bellecci C. , Colacino M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. At Crati Scrl an operational version of RAMS 4.3 (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) was implemented in January 2001. This paper aims to give a first assessment of model performances for quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). In essence, the effects of enhanced horizontal grid resolution over Calabria, using a 6km spacing domain nested in a 30km resolution parent grid, is studied. To cope with this problem two integrations sets are discussed using two model resolutions. Integrations are performed daily for six months. ECMWF 12:00UTC forecast cycle is used for initial and dynamic boundary conditions. Performances are evaluated by scores computed from model outputs and raingauge measurements coming from Calabrian regional network.
Stochastic downscaling of LAM predictions: an example in the Mediterranean area
Authors: Rebora N. , Ferraris L. , von Hardenberg J. , Provenzale A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the absence of a full deterministic modelling of small-scale rainfall, it is common practice to resort to the use of stochastic downscaling models to generate ensemble rainfall predictions to be used as inputs to rainfall-runoff models. Here we present an application of a novel spatial-temporal downscaling procedure based on a non-linear transformation of a linearly correlated (gaussian) field. This procedure allows for reproducing the scaling properties (if any) of the rainfall pattern and it can be easily linked with meteorological forecasts produced by limited area meteorological models.
Rainfall triggering soil slips in the southern Apuan Alps (Tuscany, Italy)
Authors: Giannecchini R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Apuan Alps are characterized by frequent heavy rainfall. In several cases this triggered many shallow landslides (soil slips). With the aim of contributing to the landslide hazard evaluation of the southern Apuan Alps (upper Versilian area), a detailed analysis of the main pluviometric events was carried out. Data recorded at the main raingauge of the area from 1975 to 2002 were analysed and compared with the occurrence of soil slips, in order to examine the relationship between soil slip initiation and rainfall. Some thresholds for soil slip-debris flow activity in terms of mean intensity, duration and mean annual precipitation (MAP) were defined for the study area.
Multifractal analysis of radar rainfall fields over the area of Rome
Authors: Calenda G. , Gorgucci E. , Napolitano F. , Novella A. , Volpi E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A scale-invariance analysis of space and time rainfall events monitored by meteorological radar over the area of Rome (Italy) is proposed. The study of the scale-invariance properties of intense precipitation storms, particularly important in flood forecast and risk mitigation, allows to transfer rainfall information from the large scale predictive meteorological models to the small scale hydrological rainfall-runoff models. Precipitation events are monitored using data collected by the polarimetric Doppler radar Polar 55C (ISAC-CNR), located 15 km Southeast from downtown. The meteorological radar provides the estimates of rainfall intensity over an area of about 10 000 km2 at a resolution of 2×2 km2 in space and 5 min in time. Many precipitation events have been observed from autumn 2001 up to now. A scale-invariance analysis is performed on some of these events with the aim at exploring the multifractal properties and at understanding their dependence on the meteorological large-scale conditions.
Analysis of shallow failures triggered by the 14-16 November 2002 event in the Albaredo valley, Valtellina (Northern Italy)
Authors: Dapporto S. , Aleotti P. , Casagli N. , Polloni G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. On 14-16 November 2002 the North Italy was affected by an intense rainfall event: in the Albaredo valley (Valtellina) more than 200 mm of rain fell triggering about 50 shallow landslides, mainly soil slips and soil slip-debris flows. Landslides occurred above the critical rainfall thresholds computed by Cancelli and Nova (1985) and Ceriani et al. (1994) for the Italian Central Alps: in fact the cumulative precipitation at the soil slips initiation time was 230 mm (in two days) with a peak intensity of 15 mm/h. A coupled analysis of seepage and instability mechanisms is performed in order to evaluate the potential for slope failure during the event. Changes in positive and negative pore water pressures during the event are modelled by a finite element analysis of water flow in transient conditions, using as boundary condition for the nodes along the slope surface the recorded rainfall rate. The slope stability analysis is conducted applying the limit equilibrium method, using pore water pressure distributions obtained in the different time steps by the seepage analysis as input data for the calculation of the factor of safety.
Model-based iterative approach to polarimetric radar rainfall estimation in presence of path attenuation
Authors: Vulpiani G. , Marzano F. S. , Chandrasekar V. , Uijlenhoet R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A new model-based iterative technique to correct for attenuation and differential attenuation and retrieve rain rate, based on a neural-network scheme and a differential phase constraint, is presented. Numerical simulations are used to investigate the efficiency and accuracy of this approach named NIPPER. The simulator is based on a T-matrix solution technique, while precipitation is characterized with respect to shape, raindrop size distribution and orientation. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to evaluate the expected errors of this method. The performance of the proposed methodology on radar measurements is evaluated by using one-dimensional Gaussian shaped rain cell models and synthetic radar data derived from disdrometer measurements. Numerical results are discussed in order to evaluate the robustness of the proposed technique.
2-D spatial distribution of rainfall rate through combined use of radar reflectivity and rain gauge data
Authors: Cuccoli F. , Facheris L. , Giuli D. , Casamaggi M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper describes and comments the results obtained applying a data processing method to a joint set of radar and a rain gauge data for estimating the 2-D rainfall field at ground averaged over a given observation time T and over a radar coverage area that includes a rain gauge network. The estimate of the rainfall field is based on the processing of a data set composed by rain gauge and horizontal reflectivity radar data gathered during a rainfall phenomenon. The procedure has been tested on an experimental data set collected in Tuscany in 1999.
Regularity of distribution of precipitation at the airdromes of Azerbaijan Republic
Authors: Huseynov N. , Malikov B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A study of the regularity of precipitation distribution at the airdromes of Azerbaijan Republic was carried out for the purpose of defining the basic parameters of the climatic peculiarity that have an impact on the activities of civil aviation. For calculation of the key parameters, mathematical analysis methods are applied on the long-term statistical data.
SEPAL – a simple GIS-based tool to estimate sediment pathways in lowland catchments
Authors: Kiesel J. , Schmalz B. , Fohrer N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Even though soil loss in the lowlands imposes not as much a restriction on land use and agricultural productivity as in erosion affected mountainous areas, the input of fine sediment into the rivers and streams is a concern due to water quality issues and substrate siltation. Drains, river banks and agricultural fields are the three main sources of fine sediment in lowland regions. For a successful implementation of measures to decrease sediment input a well-founded knowledge of the individual entry pathways is essential. To assess the importance of possible entry pathways, a GIS based methodology (SEPAL) has been established combining the ABAG, a river bank erosion formula and a regression approach to include the contributions of drains. SEPAL has been applied on a study catchment in Northern Germany. The results show that 15% of the sediment input into the river comes from agricultural drains, 71% from river banks and 14% from adjacent fields. A comparison of the results with field-mapping and -sampling shows that the approach is plausible. The calculated total annual sediment input is 616 t yr−1, while the measured suspended sediment load is 636 t yr−1. It can be concluded that the methodology is suitable for estimating sediment entry pathways and annual sediment loads in lowland catchments as a base for modelling projects and further investigations. However, further work is necessary for gaining sound knowledge about uncertainties and especially about the processes forcing sediment input from drains.
Volcanism and associated hazards: the Andean perspective
Authors: Tilling R. I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Andean volcanism occurs within the Andean Volcanic Arc (AVA), which is the product of subduction of the Nazca Plate and Antarctica Plates beneath the South America Plate. The AVA is Earth's longest but discontinuous continental-margin volcanic arc, which consists of four distinct segments: Northern Volcanic Zone, Central Volcanic Zone, Southern Volcanic Zone, and Austral Volcanic Zone. These segments are separated by volcanically inactive gaps that are inferred to indicate regions where the dips of the subducting plates are too shallow to favor the magma generation needed to sustain volcanism. The Andes host more volcanoes that have been active during the Holocene (past 10 000 years) than any other volcanic region in the world, as well as giant caldera systems that have produced 6 of the 47 largest explosive eruptions (so-called "super eruptions") recognized worldwide that have occurred from the Ordovician to the Pleistocene. The Andean region's most powerful historical explosive eruption occurred in 1600 at Huaynaputina Volcano (Peru). The impacts of this event, whose eruptive volume exceeded 11 km3, were widespread, with distal ashfall reported at distances >1000 km away. Despite the huge size of the Huaynaputina eruption, human fatalities from hazardous processes (pyroclastic flows, ashfalls, volcanogenic earthquakes, and lahars) were comparatively small owing to the low population density at the time. In contrast, lahars generated by a much smaller eruption (<0.05 km3) in 1985 of Nevado del Ruiz (Colombia) killed about 25 000 people – the worst volcanic disaster in the Andean region as well as the second worst in the world in the 20th century. The Ruiz tragedy has been attributed largely to ineffective communications of hazards information and indecisiveness by government officials, rather than any major deficiencies in scientific data. Ruiz's disastrous outcome, however, together with responses to subsequent hazardous eruptions in Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru has spurred significant improvements in reducing volcano risk in the Andean region. But much remains to be done.
Integrated assessment and adaptation to climate change impacts in the Peruvian Andes
Authors: Salzmann N. , Huggel C. , Calanca P. , Díaz A. , Jonas T. , Jurt C. , Konzelmann T. , Lagos P. , Rohrer M. , Silverio W. , Zappa M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Andes as mountain regions worldwide, provide fundamental resources, not only for the local population. Due to the topographic characteristics, the potential for natural hazards is higher than elsewhere. In these areas, assessments of climate change impacts and the development of adequate adaptation strategies therefore become particular important. The data basis, however, is often scarce. Moreover, perceptions of changes and needs are often divergent between national and local levels, which make the implementation of adaptation measures a challenge. Taking the Peruvian Andes as an example, this paper aims at initiating a discussion about scientific baseline and integrative concepts needed to deal with the adverse effects of climate change in mountain regions.
Precipitation and temperature regime over Cyprus as a result of global climate change
Authors: Giannakopoulos C. , Hadjinicolaou P. , Kostopoulou E. , Varotsos K. V. , Zerefos C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this study, the impact of global climate change on the temperature and precipitation regime over the island of Cyprus has been investigated. The analysis is based on daily output from a regional climate model (RCM) at a high horizontal resolution (25 km) produced within the framework of the EU-funded ENSEMBLES project. The control run represents the base period 1961–1990 and is used here as reference for comparison with future predictions. Two future periods are studied, 2021–2050 and 2071–2100. For the study area and over the study period, an analysis of the changes associated with the temperature regime and the hydrological cycle, such as mean precipitation and drought duration, is presented. Variations in the mean annual and seasonal rainfall are presented. Changes in the number of hot days/warm nights as well as drought duration are also discussed. These changes should be very important to assess future possible water shortages over the island and to provide a basis for associated impacts on the agricultural sector.
Near surface geophysics techniques and geomorphological approach to reconstruct the hazard cave map in historical and urban areas
Authors: Lazzari M. , Loperte A. , Perrone A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This work, carried out with an integrated methodological approach, focuses on the use of near surface geophysics techniques, such as ground penetrating radar and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and geomorphological analysis, in order to reconstruct the cave distribution and geometry in a urban context and, in particular, in historical centres. The interaction during recent centuries between human activity (caves excavation, birth and growth of an urban area) and the characters of the natural environment were the reasons of a progressive increase in hazard and vulnerability levels of several sites. The reconstruction of a detailed cave map distribution is the first step to define the anthropic and geomorphological hazard in urban areas, fundamental basis for planning and assessing the risk.
Analysis of highly accurate rain intensity measurements from a field test site
Authors: Lanza L. G. , Vuerich E. , Gnecco I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the course of the recent WMO international instrument intercomparison in the field and the associated specific laboratory tests, highly accurate rainfall intensity measurements have been collected and made available for scientific investigation. The resulting high quality data set (contemporary one-minute rainfall intensity data from 26 gauges based on various measuring principles) constitutes an important resource to provide insights into the expected behaviour of rain intensity gauges in operational conditions and further useful information for National Meteorological Services and other users. A few aspects of the analysis of one-minute resolution rain intensity measurements are discussed in this paper, focusing on the observed deviations from a calculated reference intensity based on four pit gauges. Results from both catching and non-catching type gauges are discussed in relation with suitable tolerance limits obtained as a combination of the estimated uncertainty of the reference intensity and the WMO accuracy limits for rainfall intensity measurements. It is shown that suitably post-processed weighing gauges and tipping-bucket rain gauges had acceptable performance, while none of the non-catching rain gauges agreed well with the reference.
How tight are the limits to land and water use? - Combined impacts of food demand and climate change
Authors: Lotze-Campen H. , Lucht W. , Müller C. , Bondeau A. , Smith P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the coming decades, world agricultural systems will face serious transitions. Population growth, income and lifestyle changes will lead to considerable increases in food demand. Moreover, a rising demand for renewable energy and biodiversity protection may restrict the area available for food production. On the other hand, global climate change will affect production conditions, for better or worse depending on regional conditions. In order to simulate these combined effects consistently and in a spatially explicit way, we have linked the Lund-Potsdam-Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) with a "Management model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment" (MAgPIE). LPJ represents the global biosphere with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree. MAgPIE covers the most important agricultural crop and livestock production types. A prototype has been developed for one sample region. In the next stage this will be expanded to several economically relevant regions on a global scale, including international trade. The two models are coupled through a layer of productivity zones. In the paper we present the modelling approach, develop first joint scenarios and discuss selected results from the coupled modelling system.
Agents, Bayes, and Climatic Risks - a modular modelling approach
Authors: Haas A. , Jaeger C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. When insurance firms, energy companies, governments, NGOs, and other agents strive to manage climatic risks, it is by no way clear what the aggregate outcome should and will be. As a framework for investigating this subject, we present the LAGOM model family. It is based on modules depicting learning social agents. For managing climate risks, our agents use second order probabilities and update them by means of a Bayesian mechanism while differing in priors and risk aversion. The interactions between these modules and the aggregate outcomes of their actions are implemented using further modules. The software system is implemented as a series of parallel processes using the CIAMn approach. It is possible to couple modules irrespective of the language they are written in, the operating system under which they are run, and the physical location of the machine.
Using the object modeling system for hydrological model development and application
Authors: Kralisch S. , Krause P. , David O.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. State of the art challenges in sustainable management of water resources have created demand for integrated, flexible and easy to use hydrological models which are able to simulate the quantitative and qualitative aspects of the hydrological cycle with a sufficient degree of certainty. Existing models which have been de-veloped to fit these needs are often constrained to specific scales or purposes and thus can not be easily adapted to meet different challenges. As a solution for flexible and modularised model development and application, the Object Modeling System (OMS) has been developed in a joint approach by the USDA-ARS, GPSRU (Fort Collins, CO, USA), USGS (Denver, CO, USA), and the FSU (Jena, Germany). The OMS provides a modern modelling framework which allows the implementation of single process components to be compiled and applied as custom tailored model assemblies. This paper describes basic principles of the OMS and its main components and explains in more detail how the problems during coupling of models or model components are solved inside the system. It highlights the integration of different spatial and temporal scales by their representation as spatial modelling entities embedded into time compound components. As an exam-ple the implementation of the hydrological model J2000 is discussed.
Integrated analysis of water quality in a mesoscale lowland basin
Authors: Habeck A. , Krysanova V. , Hattermann F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This article describes a modelling study on nitrogen transport from diffuse sources in the Nuthe catchment, representing a typical lowland region in the north-eastern Germany. Building on a hydrological validation performed in advance using the ecohydrological model SWIM, the nitrogen flows were simulated over a 20-year period (1981-2000). The relatively good quality of the input data, particularly for the years from 1993 to 2000, enabled the nitrogen flows to be reproduced sufficiently well, although modelling nutrient flows is always associated with a great deal of uncertainty. Subsequently, scenario calculations were carried out in order to investigate how nitrogen transport from the catchment could be further reduced. The selected scenario results with the greatest reduction of nitrogen washoff will briefly be presented in the paper.
Comparison of different efficiency criteria for hydrological model assessment
Authors: Krause P. , Boyle D. P. , Bäse F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The evaluation of hydrologic model behaviour and performance is commonly made and reported through comparisons of simulated and observed variables. Frequently, comparisons are made between simulated and measured streamflow at the catchment outlet. In distributed hydrological modelling approaches, additional comparisons of simulated and observed measurements for multi-response validation may be integrated into the evaluation procedure to assess overall modelling performance. In both approaches, single and multi-response, efficiency criteria are commonly used by hydrologists to provide an objective assessment of the "closeness" of the simulated behaviour to the observed measurements. While there are a few efficiency criteria such as the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, coefficient of determination, and index of agreement that are frequently used in hydrologic modeling studies and reported in the literature, there are a large number of other efficiency criteria to choose from. The selection and use of specific efficiency criteria and the interpretation of the results can be a challenge for even the most experienced hydrologist since each criterion may place different emphasis on different types of simulated and observed behaviours. In this paper, the utility of several efficiency criteria is investigated in three examples using a simple observed streamflow hydrograph.
The atmospheric circulation on the synoptic scale during the culmination phase of the El-Niño − Southern Oscillation events (1997−1998)
Authors: Sokolikhina E. V. , Semenov E. K. , Sokolikhina N. N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. For the classification of the synoptic processes in the tropical Pacific using daily data, criteria were proposed for identifying the different evolutional phases of the equatorial westerly wind zone. The criteria are based on the location, extent and activity of the westerly wind zone on the 850 hPa isobaric surface. According to this classification all the observed variants of the westerly wind regime above the tropical Pacific can be divided into three classes: normal, active, and break. For each class one specific pattern of tropical atmospheric circulation centers and divergent wind velocity potential in the lower and upper troposphere are found. Using the singular value decomposition method (SVD) the connection between the atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) of equatorial Pacific is investigated.
In search of colonial El Niño events and a brief history of meteorology in Ecuador
Authors: Terneus A. , Gioda A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This study shows a brief overview of the development of meteorology in Ecuador from historical documentation of climatic events in the Colonial era through to modern data collection. In the colonial era (16th century-1824), historical documents of rogation ceremonies and municipal proceedings, from the Quito area, provide a rich source of climate information, including El Niño events. Our preliminary findings show that very few of the historically documented catastrophes and other marked environmental events in Quito match known El Niño episodes. Independently, the first meteorological data was collected in Ecuador (beginning with La Condamine in 1738), followed by the earliest attempts to build a national meteorological network in the 1860's, linked closely to President Gabriel García Moreno and the Jesuits. The 1925 El Niño phenomenon was the first important meteorological episode recorded with scientific instrumentation in Ecuador, with newspapers providing complementary archives about the extreme impact of this event.
Remote ENSO forcing versus local air-sea interaction in QTCM: a sensitivity study to intraseasonal variability
Authors: Gushchina D. , Dewitte B. , Illig S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The skill of a newly designed global atmospheric model of intermediate complexity - QTCM (for quasi-equilibrium tropical circulation model) in simulating the teleconnections is investigated. The role of the ENSO remote forcing over the Pacific surrounding regions is emphasized from sensitivity experiments to critical parameters of the model. The role of the tropical intraseasonal variability (ITV) on the simulated ENSO teleconnection pattern is estimated using the methodology proposed by Lin et al. (2000) allowing to damp the energy of ITV in the model. The reduction of intraseasonal variability allows emphasizing the forced response of the atmosphere and eases the detection of local coupled atmosphere-ocean patterns. It was shown that the simulated ITV has an impact on the ENSO teleconnection pattern both in the mid-latitudes and in regions of ascending and descending branches of Walker circulation cells in the tropics.
The ENSO phenomenon: theory and mechanisms
Authors: Dijkstra H. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The variability in the equatorial Tropical Pacific is characterized by sea-surface temperature anomalies and associated changes in the atmospheric circulation. Through an enormous monitoring effort over the last decades, the relevant time scales and spatial patterns are fairly well-documented. In the meantime, a hierarchy of models has been developed to understand the physics of this phenomenon and to make predictions of future variability. In this short review, I try to summarize theories and mechanisms about variability in such a way that these are accessible to a diverse group of researchers, such as that present in Guayaquil (in May 2005) at the First International Alexander Von Humboldt Conference "The El Niño Phenomenon and its Global Impact".