bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Factors influencing the condition of vulnerability among the elderly
Authors: Amancio Thaís Garcia , Oliveira Maria Liz Cunha de , Amancio Vitor dos Santos
Published: August 2019

Abstract Objective: Describe health conditions and life habits using Vulnerable Elders Survey-13 scores, with the aim of understanding the factors associated with the vulnerability of the elderly. Method: A quantitative, cross-sectional study was conducted in the Distrito Federal, Brazil. Data were collected by a questionnaire containing the Vulnerable Elders Survey-13 and other variables. Descriptive statistics, correlation and regression analyses were carried out. Results: 956 people aged 60 years and older living in the Distrito Federal were interviewed. Of these, 32.4% had scores equal to or greater than three, and were therefore classified as vulnerable. Some variables exhibited a positive relation with VES-13 score, with intensity ranging from very weak, in the case of systemic arterial hypertension (p=0.035) and diabetes mellitus (p=0.027), to moderate, as was the case with depression (p<0.001), urinary loss (p<0.001) and falls (p<0.001). It was also observed that a 1% increase in the income of the elderly resulted in a reduction of 0.27 points (p<0,001) in Vulnerable Elders Survey score, reducing vulnerability. Conclusion: Depression most influenced vulnerability score, followed by urinary and hearing loss. Public policies aimed at the promotion of the physical and mental health of the elderly and the creation of a propitious environment to increase income, through reinsertion into the labor market or welfare policies, can help to reduce vulnerability.
Contribuições e desafios do gerenciamento de enfermagem hospitalar: evidências científicas
Authors: Ferreira Victor Hugo Souto , Teixeira Veronica Modolo , Giacomini Márcia Aparecida , Alves Larissa Roberta , Gleriano Josué Souza , Chaves Lucieli Dias Pedreschi
Published: August 2019

Resumo OBJETIVO Analisar as evidências científicas, nacionais e internacionais, sobre contribuições e desafios do gerenciamento de enfermagem na atenção hospitalar. MÉTODO Revisão integrativa da literatura, com questão norteadora: Quais evidências científicas sobre o gerenciamento de enfermagem na atenção hospitalar? Dados coletados nas bases de dados LILACS, PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL e EMBASE. A amostra final de 14 artigos resultou em duas categorias: “Contribuições" e “Desafios”. RESULTADOS As contribuições referem-se a aspectos que facilitam o desenvolvimento e organização do trabalho na perspectiva técnico-política, ao qualificar os processos produtivos. Os desafios estão atrelados à formação profissional, à satisfação com o trabalho, à sobrecarga, à manutenção da qualidade dos serviços, resolução de conflitos e trabalho em equipe. CONCLUSÃO Processos gerenciais e assistenciais são indissociáveis, requerem conhecimento adequado e atualizado para oferecer melhor experiência de cuidado ao usuário e coordenar ações da equipe.
Carnavalização no teatro ibérico barroco
Authors: Rosa Carlos Gontijo
Published: August 2019

RESUMO Este artigo é oriundo da pesquisa resultante na tese de doutorado Antônio José da Silva: uma dramaturgia de convenções1. No presente texto, discute-se o princípio de carnavalização no teatro ibérico a partir de diferentes perspectivas teóricas, dentre as quais a de Mikhail Bakhtin. Nesse sentido, a partir da descrição da personagem-tipo do gracioso, o criado carnavalizado originalmente inserido no teatro pelos autores do Século de Ouro espanhol, pretende-se problematizar embates de classe e artifícios discursivos da narrativa tragicômica. Tal análise é embasada pela teoria de análise de textos barrocos ibéricos desenvolvidas em Espanha, nos estertores do século XX e no início do XXI, especialmente em Hermenegildo (1995). Desse modo, analisa-se como a personagem-tipo, seja em sua formulação tradicional masculina ou na feminina, como criada, participa das intrigas, de modo a tornar mais contundentes as questões centrais do enredo disparador. Como exemplificação da teoria trabalhada, trazemos a obra do autor português setecentista Antônio José da Silva, Precipício de Faetonte. Nela, é possível perceber a participação dessas personagens baixas entremeando a intriga principal: o que pode ser lido, em nossa perspectiva, como uma forma de carnavalização do teatro ibérico de tal período, dentro da perspectiva bakhtiniana.
Corpos em Bakhtin
Authors: McCaw Dick
Published: August 2019

RESUMO O pensamento de Bakhtin, dos primeiros e dos últimos textos, se concentrou nas imagens do corpo humano. Entende-se o corpo ao contemplá-lo: ver é saber. Esse “contemplar” não tem nenhuma das qualidades objetivantes do que hoje é conhecido como “olhar”. A filosofia inicial de Bakhtin é baseada em um compromisso compassivo pelo qual uma pessoa ajuda a outra a ver e a se conhecer como um todo e, além disso, como um todo amado. Por mais limitante que seja, argumentarei que sua concepção inicial de corpo ainda tem muito valor. O argumento então se volta para as imagens posteriores e muito mais familiares de Bakhtin sobre o corpo grotesco. Enquanto, inicialmente, suas ideias voltam-se para um corpo estático, agora vemos o corpo envolvido em uma interação tumultuada e interminável com seu ambiente social e natural. Seria essa uma alegoria antissoviética ou uma visão alternativa do corpo humano que remonta à pré-história? Ofereço duas ilustrações em defesa da ideia de que esta era, na verdade, uma filosofia do corpo.
Aristocracia judicial brasileira: privilégios, habitus e cumplicidade estrutural
Authors: Ramos Marcelo Maciel , Castro Felipe Araújo
Published: August 2019

Resumo Inserido no campo da sociologia das elites, procura-se compreender como e por que a magistratura no Brasil reproduz em suas estruturas uma dinâmica aristocrática e elitista que parece ser incompatível com os discursos que compõem suas próprias justificativas teóricas e com os princípios democráticos que regem suas funções. Os magistrados se estabelecem como um grupo especial que reserva para si um espaço sociopolítico exclusivo por meio de uma série de características e disposições que compõe seu habitus específico, o que produz reflexos no campo jurídico em que atuam. A magistratura distingue-se das outras carreiras do funcionalismo público e, radicalmente, da maioria da população. Para compreender esse cenário, este artigo propõe um exame das contradições presentes na estruturação do Judiciário, notadamente, na permanência de privilégios adquiridos em âmbito histórico, em seu modelo de recrutamento e progressão e nos altos salários pagos aos magistrados brasileiros. Considerando essas distorções, conclui-se que o compartilhamento de espaços de socialização exclusivos entre a elite jurídica e as elites política e econômica distancia-os drasticamente da população e influi de modo decisivo na produção de uma prática judicial que tende a conservar as relações de poder como estabelecidas.
Diálogos interprofissionais e interdisciplinares na prática extensionista: o caminho para a inserção do conceito ampliado de saúde na formação acadêmica
Authors: Rios David Ramos da Silva , Sousa Daniel Andrade Barreto de , Caputo Maria Constantina
Published: August 2019

O presente artigo discute a importância da interdisciplinaridade e da interprofissionalidade no processo de formação em saúde, partindo da compreensão de que não é possível concretizar uma visão ampla da saúde nos moldes do conhecimento disciplinar e uniprofissional. Trata-se de uma pesquisa exploratória de abordagem qualitativa que se baseou em entrevistas semiestruturadas realizadas com discentes de duas universidades, participantes de uma atividade de extensão realizada no assentamento Baixão, localizado na região centro-sul da Bahia, Brasil. A análise dos dados utilizou a metodologia da análise de conteúdo. A partir das entrevistas, compreende-se que as atividades de extensão possuem o potencial de transformar o processo formativo dos sujeitos envolvidos, seja em seus aspectos profissionais ou pessoais. Conclui-se que ações extensionistas possibilitam a construção de novos espaços, nos quais é possível desenvolver a interação e o compartilhamento de saberes, bem como práticas colaborativas.
Corpo, política e emoção: feminismos, estética e consumo entre mulheres negras
Authors: Silva Gleicy Mailly da
Published: August 2019

Resumo Este artigo busca refletir a respeito do modo como algumas formas recentes de engajamento político de mulheres negras têm articulado relações entre corpo, estética e emoção enquanto aspectos centrais de seus processos de aprendizado e afirmação identitária. Tendo o contexto paulistano como cenário, a pesquisa etnográfica mostra como, por meio de redes de sociabilidade on-line e off-line, experiências coletivas atuam na reformulação de um conjunto de sentimentos, percebidos na partilha de narrativas dramáticas de discriminação racial, produzindo um novo olhar sobre o corpo e sobre a noção de beleza por meio de linguagens estéticas que, por sua vez, ensejam novas dinâmicas de consumo, ao mesmo tempo em que ampliam os sentidos dos feminismos negros. Minha intenção é atentar para a constituição de um sujeito político plural, alinhado com as mídias contemporâneas, que articula mercado e engajamento a uma economia política das emoções, estimulando novos modelos de subjetividade.
As emoções e o trabalho intelectual
Authors: Coelho Maria Claudia
Published: August 2019

Resumo Este artigo aborda o lugar das emoções na produção de conhecimento científico, com foco na área das ciências sociais. Trata-se de um texto de natureza bibliográfica composto de três seções. Na primeira, discute-se a existência de três momentos na reflexão sobre o lugar das emoções no fazer antropológico: a) como intrusas indesejáveis no trabalho de campo; b) como um incômodo com o qual se pode aprender sobre a natureza do trabalho de campo; c) como via de acesso para a compreensão da alteridade. A segunda seção aborda o papel da nostalgia e do pessimismo, respectivamente, nas disciplinas da antropologia e da sociologia, discutindo-os como molas propulsoras do desejo de conhecer. A terceira seção explora o lugar do amor no trabalho intelectual, tomando a história da relação entre Sidney e Beatrice Webb (narrada por Wolf Lepenies em seu livro As três culturas) como um conjunto de dados etnográficos.
Antropología y emoción: reflexiones sobre campos empíricos, perspectivas de análisis y obstáculos epistemológicos
Authors: Sirimarco Mariana , Spivak L’Hoste Ana
Published: August 2019

Resumen Hace ya varios años que venimos haciendo trabajo de investigación y docencia en el cruce entre antropología y emoción, acompañando -en lo que concierne a esta última labor- la elaboración de tesis, coordinando mesas en eventos científicos y dictando seminarios específicos. Este trabajo busca reflexionar sobre los avatares de esta experiencia, prestando especial atención a las particularidades y dificultades que adquieren los primeros pasos en el estudio socio-antropológico de la emoción. ¿Cuáles son los obstáculos recurrentes con que nos topamos cuando comenzamos a trabajar en estos temas? ¿Qué nos dicen, estos obstáculos, de la construcción del campo mismo? Este trabajo intenta entonces abrir el debate epistemológico acerca del cómo de la investigación en el área como un modo de seguir afianzando la apuesta por la emocionalidad como categoría analítica.
Método histórico e didática da história nos Estados Unidos da América (1880-1915)
Authors: Freitas Itamar
Published: August 2019

RESUMO Este artigo discute e narra a transposição de um método histórico ideal típico dos departamentos de história e educação, colleges e escolas normais para os impressos destinados à formação inicial e continuada de professores de história nos Estados Unidos da América, entre 1870 e 1916. Por meio do exame linguístico de relatórios da União e de manuais de metodologia de ensino de história, demonstramos que os historiadores por formação ampliaram sua atuação sobre os filósofos, sociólogos, politólogos, economistas e educadores com a indicação de que a heurística, análise e síntese deveriam nortear a didática da história, pensada e praticada nos Estados Unidos da América já na última década do século XIX.
The Out-of-Sample Failure of Empirical Exchange Rate Models: Sampling Error or Misspecification?
Authors: Rogoff Kenneth S. , Meese Richard
Published: August 2019

A companion study compares the out-of-sample fit of various structural and time series exchange rate models, and finds that the random walk model performs as well as any estimated model at one to twelve month horizons for 1970's dollar/mark, dollar/pound, dollar/yen and trade-weight dollar exchange rates. The structural models perform poorly ever though their forecasts are purged of all uncertainty concerning the future paths of their explanatory variables by using actual realized values.
The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target: Inflation Gains Versus Stabilization Costs
Authors: Rogoff Kenneth S.
Published: August 2019

Curiously, despite all the emphasis on thinking about monetary policy in terms of rules, no regime analyzed in the extant theoretical literature can be said to closely describe the monetary targeting regimes observed over the past decade. The real-world feature of these regimes which is absect from the theoretical models is the ability of the central bank to credibly commit itself to placing great weight on an intermediate monetary target (relative to direct social objectives), while retaining some scope to respond to new information. "Flexible" monetary targeting contrains the discretionary actions of the central bank but still leaves some room for the monetary authorities to use the money supply as an instrument of stabilization policy.
Was it Real? The Exchange Rate-Interest Differential Relation, 1973-1984
Authors: Rogoff Kenneth S. , Meese Richard
Published: August 2019

The main result of Meese and Rogoff [1983 a,b] is that small structural exchange rate models forecast major dollar exchange rates no better than a naive random walk model. This result obtains even when the model forecasts are based on actual realized values of the explanatory variables. Here we improve our methodology by implementing a new test of out-of-sample fit; the test is valid even for overlapping long-horizon forecasts. We find that the dollar exchange rate models perform somewhat less badly over the recent Reagan regime period than over the episodes studied previously. The methodology is also applied to the mark/yen and mark/pound exchange rates, and to real exchange rates. Finally, we test to see if real exchange rates and real interest differentials can be represented as a cointegrated process. The evidence suggests that there is no single common influence inducing nonstationarity in both real exchange rates and real interest differentials.
Assertion without Empirical Basis: An Econometric Appraisal of Monetary Trends in ... the United Kingdom by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz
Authors: Hendry David F. , Ericsson Neil R.
Published: August 2019

This paper critically re-evaluates some of the fundamental empirical claims about monetary behavior in the United Kingdom made by Milton Friedman and Anna J. Schwartz in their 1982 book Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom. We focus on six aspects of their analysis: the exogeneity of money; their claims of the constancy and correct specification of their money-demand equation; their interpretation of a dummy variable in that equation as capturing a "shift in liquidity preference" for 1921-55; their treatment of the interdependence of money, income, prices, and interest rates; and their use of phase-average data. They fail to support many of their empirical assertions with valid econometric evidence: in particular, they leave untested many conditions necessary to sustain their inferences. However, those conditions either are in part directly testable from their data or have testable implications: we test many of those hypotheses and reject virtually all of them. We reject basic claims made for their empirical model of money demand, e.g., those of parameter constancy, price homogeneity, and normality of the disturbances. En route, we show that their model of velocity as a constant performs poorly relative to the "will-o'-the-wisp" model of velocity as a random walk. As constructive evidence against their models, we develop a money-demand model superior to either model of velocity, and which has an unexplained residual variance less than one tenth that of their money-demand equation. This paper, however, is not an "anti-monetarist" critique; rather, it is a pro-econometrics tract which highlights the practical dangers of seeking to analyze complex stochastic processes while eschewing modern econometric methods.
Encompassing and Rational Expectations: How Sequential Corroboration Can Imply Refutation
Authors: Hendry David F. , Ericsson Neil R.
Published: August 2019

Even though pieces of empirical evidence individually may corroborate an economic theory, their joint existence may refute that same theory. We discuss examples concerning testing for omitted variables, simultaneity, and rational expectations in the context of general-to-simple versus simple-to-general modeling. The proposition in the first sentence strongly favors the building of empirical models which are consistent with all available evidence.
Using External Sustainability to Forecast the Dollar
Authors: Meade Ellen E. , Thomas Charles P.
Published: August 2019

The sizable run-up in U.S. external debt over the 1980s has prompted many to ask whether continued current account deficits of the magnitude witnessed can be sustained. In several recent papers, different authors have concluded that a given path of the dollar is unsustainable. The conclusion drawn in these earlier papers does not allow for the substantial uncertainty that surrounds this issue, however. There is uncertainty about the estimated model of the U.S. current account that is used to generate the net demand for foreign assets for a given path of the dollar, about the preferences of foreign investors for U.S. assets, and about the mechanics of exchange rate determination that yields a particular path for the dollar.In this paper, we develop a way to explicitly address these sources of uncertainty. We find that for any given assumption about foreign preferences or the willingness of foreigners to supply net capital, there is a range of sustainable exchange rates. Moreover, that range of sustainable exchange rates varies considerably with changes in the assumption about foreign preferences. Using our framework, we can recast the earlier studies in terms of the likelihood that particular levels of the dollar would be consistent with sustainability.
War and Peace: Recovering the Market's Probability Distribution of Crude Oil Futures Prices During the Gulf Crisis
Authors: Thomas Charles P. , Melick William R.
Published: August 2019

This paper investigates the market's expectations for oil prices during the Persian Gulf crisis. To do so a general method for using options markets to recover the implied distribution for futures prices is developed. The method applies to a wide class of distributions. In particular, it is not limited to those distributions arising from diffusion or jump-diffusion processes.
Cointegration Tests in the Presence of Structural Breaks
Authors: Hendry David F. , Campos Julia , Ericsson Neil R.
Published: August 2019

Structural breaks in stationary time series can induce apparent unit roots in those series. Thus, using recently developed recursive Monte Carlo techniques, this paper investigates the properties of several cointegration tests when the marginal process of one of the variables in the cointegrating relationship is stationary with a structural break. The break has little effect on the tests' size. However, tests based on estimated error correction models generally are more powerful than Engle and Granger's two-step procedure employing the Dickey-Fuller unit root test. Discrepancies in power arise when the data generation process does not have a common factor.
The Role of Fiscal Policy in an Incomplete Markets Framework
Authors: Thomas Charles P.
Published: August 2019

A general-equilibrium model is developed to highlight the link between neo-Keynesian models of unemployment and recent results on the constrained suboptimality of competitive economies with incomplete asset markets. Although the model deviates from the Arrow-Debreu paradigm only by the absence of some contingent claims, the competitive equilibrium exhibits under-employment and balanced-budget fiscal policies have Keynesian effects which are Pareto improving.
Using Options Prices to Infer PDF's for Asset Prices: An Application to Oil Prices During the Gulf Crisis
Authors: Thomas Charles P. , Melick William R.
Published: August 2019

We develop a general method to infer martingale equivalent probability density functions (PDFs) for asset prices using American options prices. The early exercise feature of American options precludes expressing the option price in terms of the PDF of the price of the underlying asset. We derive tight bounds for the option price in terms of the PDF and demonstrate how these bounds, together with observed option prices, can be used to estimate the parameters of the PDF. We infer the distribution for the price of crude oil during the Persian Gulf crisis and find the distribution differs significantly from that recovered using standard techniques.
Income Inequality and Macroeconomic Fluctuations
Authors: Owen Ann L. , Iyigun Murat
Published: August 2019

When per capita income is low, increases in income inequality make macroeconomic cycles less severe. We present a model in which access to credit is based on earnings potential. If low as well as middle income individuals are credit constrained, increases in income inequality lead to smaller fluctuations in aggregate consumption and output. Empirical evidence from cross-country data supports the view that greater income inequality causes lower variation of real consumption and output growth in low income countries. When per capita income is high, however, this effect is reversed.
Private Payments Systems in Historical Perspective: The Banco Central System of Mexico
Authors: Robitaille Patrice T.
Published: August 2019

Payments systems have grown considerably and have become increasingly complex, prompting regulators to reassess their roles and renewing interest in historical experiences with payments systems. In this paper, I study the Banco Central System of Mexico, which was a bank note par redemption and clearing system for other payments that operated in Mexico City from 1899 until 1913. I first describe the origins of the Banco Central System. I then consider whether it became prone to behavioral problems, as some observers contended. I find that although Banco Central was less well-positioned to address incentive problems relative to one of its counterparts in the United States (the Suffolk Bank of Boston), it did act to constrain bank behavior. However, considerable government intervention weakened the disciplinary role of Banco Central and thus made the system more prone to collapse.
The Impact of Bank Consolidation on Commercial Borrower Welfare
Authors: Ongena Steven , Karceski Jason , Smith David C.
Published: August 2019

We estimate the impact of bank merger announcements on borrowersâ stock prices for publicly traded Norwegian firms. In addition, we analyze how bank mergers influence borrower relationship termination behavior and relate the propensity to terminate to borrower abnormal returns. We obtain four main results. First, on average borrowers lose about 1 percent in equity value when their bank is announced as a merger target. Small borrowers of target banks are especially hurt in mergers between two large banks, where they lose an average of about 3 percent. Small target borrowers are not harmed, and appear to even gain, from mergers between small banks. Second, bank mergers lead to higher relationship exit rates for three years after a bank merger, and small bank mergers lead to larger increases in exit rates than large mergers. Third, target borrower abnormal returns are positively related to pre-merger exit rates, indicating that firms that find it easier to switch banks are less harmed when their bank merges. Fourth, we find weak evidence that target borrowers with large merger-induced increases in exit rates are more negatively affected by bank merger announcements, suggesting that target borrowers can be forced out of relationships and suffer welfare losses as a result of bank mergers.
Macroeconomics of International Price Discrimination
Authors: Corsetti Giancarlo , Dedola Luca
Published: August 2019

This paper builds a baseline two-country model of real and monetary transmission under optimal international price discrimination. Distributing traded goods to consumers requires nontradables; because of distributive trade, the price elasticity of export demand depends on the exchange rate. Profit-maximizing monopolistic firms drive a wedge between wholesale and retail prices across countries. This entails possibly large deviations from the law of one price and incomplete pass-through on import prices. Yet, consistent with expenditure-switching effects, a nominal depreciation generally worsens the terms of trade. Moreover, the exchange rate and the terms of trade can be more volatile than fundamentals. For plausible ranges of the distribution margin, there can be multiple steady states, whereas large differences in nominal and real exchange rates across equilibria translate into small differences in consumption, employment and the price level. Finally, we show that with competitive goods markets international policy cooperation is redundant even under financial autarky.
The Road to Adopting the Euro: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Regimes in EU Candidate Countries
Authors: Natalucci Fabio M. , Ravenna Federico
Published: August 2019

This paper examines the choice of exchange rate regime in EU candidate countries during the process of accession to the European Monetary Union (EMU). In the presence of real exchange rate appreciation due to the Balassa-Samuelson effect, candidate countries face a trade-off between trend appreciation of the nominal exchange rate and high inflation rates. In a general equilibrium model of an emerging market economy, we show that under a fixed or heavily managed exchange rate the Balassa-Samuelson effect might prevent compliance with the Maastricht inflation criterion, unless a contractionary policy is adopted. We then discuss how the real exchange rate appreciation shifts the output gap/inflation variance trade-off, increasing the cost of managing or fixing the exchange rate. As a consequence, the requirement of membership in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM-II) and the Maastricht inflation criterion constrain the policy choice while providing no additional benefit to countries credibly committed to joining the Euro. Finally, we show that relaxing either the exchange rate requirement or the inflation criterion has sharply different business cycle implications for the accession countries.
DSGE Models of High Exchange-Rate Volatility and Low Pass-Through
Authors: Corsetti Giancarlo , Dedola Luca , Leduc Sylvain
Published: August 2019

This paper develops a quantitative, dynamic, open-economy model which endogenously generates high exchange rate volatility, whereas a low degree of pass-through stems from both nominal rigidities (in the form of local currency pricing) and price discrimination. We model real exchange rate volatility in response to real shocks by reconsidering and extending two approaches suggested by the quantitative literature (one by Backus Kehoe and Kydland [1995], the other by Chari, Kehoe and McGrattan [2003]), within a common framework with incomplete markets and segmented domestic economies. Our model accounts for a variable degree of ERPT over different horizons. In the short run, we find that a very small amount of nominal rigidities--consistent with the evidence in Bils and Klenow [2004--lowers the elasticity of import prices at border and consumer level to 27% and 13%, respectively. Still, exchange rate depreciation worsens the terms of trade -- in accord with the evidence stressed by Obstfe
Can the U.S. Monetary Policy Fall (Again) in an Expectation Trap?
Authors: Bodenstein Martin , Armenter Roc
Published: August 2019

We provide a tractable model to study monetary policy under discretion. We focus on Markov equilibria. For all parametrizations with an equilibrium inflation rate around 2%, there is a second equilibrium with an inflation rate just above 10%. Thus the model can simultaneously account for the low and high inflation episodes in the U.S. We carefully characterize the set of Markov equilibria along the parameter space and find our results to be robust.
Does The Time Inconsistency Problem Make Flexible Exchange Rates Look Worse Than You Think?
Authors: Bodenstein Martin , Armenter Roc
Published: August 2019

The Barro-Gordon inflation bias has provided the most influential argument for fixed exchange rate regimes. However, with low inflation rates now widespread, credibility concerns seem no longer relevant. Why give up independent monetary policy to contain an inflation bias that is already under control? We argue that credibility problems do not end with the inflation bias and they are a larger drawback for flexible exchange rates than usually thought. Absent commitment, independent monetary policy can induce expectation traps---that is, welfare ranked multiple equilibria---and perverse policy responses to real shocks, i.e., an equilibrium policy response that is welfare inferior to policy inaction. Both possibilities imply that flexible exchange rates feature unnecessary macroeconomic volatility.
A Bivariate Model of Fed and ECB Main Policy Rates
Authors: Scotti Chiara
Published: August 2019

This paper studies when and by how much the Fed and the ECB change their target interest rates. I develop a new nonlinear bivariate framework, which allows for elaborate dynamics and potential interdependence between the two countries, as opposed to linear feedback rules, such as a Taylor rule, and I use a novel real-time data set. A Bayesian estimation approach is particularly well suited to the small data sample. Empirical results support synchronization between the central banks and non-zero correlation between magnitude shocks, but they do not support follower behavior. Institutional factors and inflation represent relevant variables for timing decisions of both banks. Inflation rates are important factors for magnitude decisions, while output plays a major role in US magnitude decisions.
Measurement Matters for Modeling U.S. Import Prices
Authors: Thomas Charles P. , Marquez Jaime R.
Published: August 2019

We focus on capturing the increasingly important role that emerging economies play in determining U.S. import prices. Emerging market producers differ from others in two respects: (1) their cost structure is well below that of developed-market producers, and (2) their wide profit margins induce pricing policies that seek to exhaust production capacity. We argue that these features have dampened the short-run responses of import prices to changes in the value of the dollar but that they have not altered the associated long-run response. To capture these considerations, we develop a new method to measure foreign prices and adopt a formulation that differentiates between short- and long-run responses. Our econometric work asks two questions: First, can one replicate the literature's dispersion of pass-through estimates? Second, is there any evidence of a change in the dynamic response of import prices to changes in the exchange value of the dollar? To address the first question, we estimate the parameters of our models using several alternative measures of U.S. and foreign prices, dynamic specifications, and sample periods. We find that these alternative inputs translate into a large range of parameter estimates, a finding that helps to rationalizing the existing dispersion of estimates. To address the second question, we compute the implied dynamic adjustment of import prices to a change in the value of the dollar using parameters estimated from two samples: 1974-2000 and 1974-2005. The long-run response of import prices is similar regardless of which sample is used---roughly one-half of the change in the exchange rate is passed through to import prices. However, the short-run response is quite sensitive to the sample period. Specifically, the short-run response based on data through 2005 is smaller than the short-run response based on data through 2000. We argue that one force behind the change in dynamics of the import-price process is the greater presence of producers from emerging economies and that their effect on import prices can be captured with their measure of foreign prices.
International Asset Markets and Real Exchange Rate Volatility
Authors: Bodenstein Martin
Published: August 2019

The real exchange rate is very volatile relative to major macroeconomic aggregates and its correlation with the ratio of domestic over foreign consumption is negative (Backus-Smith puzzle). These two observations constitute a puzzle to standard international macroeconomic theory. This paper develops a two country model with complete asset markets and limited enforcement for international financial contracts that provides a possible explanation of these two puzzles. The model performs poorly with respect to asset pricing. However, with limited enforcement for both domestic and international financial contracts, the model’s asset pricing implications are brought into line with the empirical evidence, albeit at the expense of raising real exchange rate volatility.
Markov Switching GARCH Models of Currency Turmoil in Southeast Asia
Authors: Brunetti Celso , Scotti Chiara , Mariano Roberto S. , Tan Augustine H. H.
Published: August 2019

This paper analyzes exchange rate turmoil with a Markov Switching GARCH model. We distinguish between two different regimes in both the conditional mean and the conditional variance: "ordinary" regime, characterized by low exchange rate changes and low volatility, and "turbulent" regime, characterized by high exchange rate movements and high volatility. We also allow the transition probabilities to vary over time as functions of economic and financial indicators. We find that real effective exchange rates, money supply relative to reserves, stock index returns, and bank stock index returns and volatility contain valuable information for identifying turbulence and ordinary periods.
Price Setting during Low and High Inflation: Evidence from Mexico
Authors: Gagnon Etienne
Published: August 2019

This paper provides new insight into the relationship between inflation and consumer price setting by examining a large data set of Mexican consumer prices covering episodes of both low and high inflation, as well as the transition between the two. Overall, the economy shares several characteristics with time-dependent models when the annual inflation rate is low (below 10-15%), while displaying strong state dependence when inflation is high (above 10-15%). At low inflation levels, the aggregate frequency of price changes responds little to movements in inflation because movements in the frequency of price decreases partly offset movements in the frequency of price increases. When the annual inflation rate rises beyond 10-15 percent, however, there are no longer enough price decreases to counterbalance the rising occurrence of price increases, making the frequency of price changes more responsive to inflation. It is shown that a simple menu-cost model with idiosyncratic technology shocks predicts remarkably well the level of the average frequency and magnitude of price changes over a wide range of inflation.
Oil Shocks and External Adjustment
Authors: Bodenstein Martin , Erceg Christopher J. , Guerrieri Luca
Published: August 2019

This paper investigates how oil price shocks affect the trade balance and terms of trade in a two country DSGE model. We show that the response of the external sector depends critically on the structure of financial market risk-sharing. Under incomplete markets, higher oil prices reduce the relative wealth of an oil-importing country, and induce its non-oil terms of trade to deteriorate, and its non-oil trade balance to improve. The magnitude of the non-oil terms of trade response hinges on structural parameters that affect the divergence in wealth effects across oil importers and exporters, including the elasticity of substitution between oil and other inputs in production, and the discount factor. By contrast, cross-country wealth differences effectively disappear under complete markets, with the implication that oil shocks have essentially no effect on the non-oil terms of trade or the non-oil trade balance.
Cross-Border Bank Acquisitions: Is there a Performance Effect?
Authors: Correa Ricardo
Published: August 2019

This paper uses a unique database that includes deal and bank balance sheet information for 220 cross-border acquisitions between 1994 and 2003 to analyze the characteristics and performance effects of international takeovers on target banks. A discrete choice estimation shows that banks are more likely to get acquired in a cross-border deal if they are large, bad performers, in a small country, and when the banking sector is concentrated. Post-acquisition performance for target banks does not improve in the first two years relative to domestically-owned financial institutions. This result is explained by a decrease in the banks’ net interest margin in developed countries and an increase in overhead costs in emerging economies.
Bank Integration and Financial Constraints: Evidence from U.S. Firms
Authors: Correa Ricardo
Published: August 2019

This paper uses data on publicly-traded firms in the U.S. to analyze the effect of interstate bank integration on the financial constraints borrowers face. A firm-level investment equation is estimated in order to test if bank integration reduces the sensitivity of capital expenditures to the level of internal funds. The staggered deregulation of cross-state bank acquisitions that took place in the U.S. between 1978 and 1994 helps estimate the model. Integration decreases financing constraints for bank-dependent firms. The change in firms' access to external finance is explained by an increase in the share of locally headquartered geographically diversified banks.
Housing, Home Production, and the Equity and Value Premium Puzzles
Authors: Davis Morris A. , Martin Robert F.
Published: August 2019

We test if a standard representative agent model with a home-production sector can resolve the equity premium or value premium puzzles. In this model, agents value market consumption and a home consumption good that is produced as an aggregate of the stock of housing, home labor, and a labor-augmenting technology shock. We construct the unobserved quantity of the home consumption good by combining observed data with restrictions of the model. We test the first-order conditions of the model using GMM. The model is rejected by the data; it cannot explain either the historical equity premium or the value premium.
Foreign Exposure to Asset-Backed Securities of U.S. Origin
Authors: Beltran Daniel O. , Thomas Charles P. , DeMarco Laurie Pounder
Published: August 2019

The financial turmoil which began in August 2007 originated, in part, because investors reassessed the quality of the assets underlying many asset-backed securities (ABS), particularly U.S. mortgages. The prominence of European banks in the early stages of the turmoil created the perception that foreigners held an outsized share of risky U.S. securities and prompted questions of why Europeans were so exposed. This paper evaluates that perception by quantifying foreign exposure to ABS with U.S. underlying collateral. Using the latest survey data on foreign portfolio holdings of U.S. securities, we find that the ultimate losses that foreigners could incur arising from U.S. underlying assets are small relative to most scale variables, although initial total mark-to-market losses are estimated to be significantly larger. Among other reasons for this difference between ultimate and initial losses, we demonstrate that the securitization chain can amplify mark-to-market price declines in the presence of uncertainty or illiquidity. Finally, we show that, relative to the size of the market, foreigners' holdings of U.S. mortgage-backed securities do not appear to be elevated compared with their holdings of other U.S. assets.
The Revealed Competitiveness of U.S. Exports
Authors: Del Gatto Massimo , Di Mauro Filippo , Gruber Joseph W. , Mandel Benjamin R.
Published: August 2019

The U.S. share of world merchandise exports has declined sharply over the last decade. Using data at the level of detailed industries, this paper analyzes the decline in U.S. share against the backdrop of alternative measures of the competitiveness of the U.S. economy. We document the following facts: (i) only a few industries contributed to the decline in any meaningful way, (ii) a large part of the drop was driven by the changing size of U.S. export industries and not the size of U.S. sales within those industries, (iii) in a gravity framework, the majority of the decline in the U.S. export share within industries was due to the declining U.S. share of world income, and (iv) in a computed structural measure of firm productivity, average U.S. export productivity has generally maintained its high level versus other countries over time. Overall, our analysis suggests that the dismal performance of the U.S. market share is not a sufficient statistic for competitiveness.
Technology Shocks: Novel Implications for International Business Cycles
Authors: Raffo Andrea
Published: August 2019

Understanding the joint dynamics of international prices and quantities remains a central issue in international business cycles. International relative prices appreciate when domestic consumption and output increase more than their foreign counterparts. In addition, both trade flows and trade prices display sizable volatility. This paper incorporates Hicks-neutral and investment-specific technology shocks into a standard two-country general equilibrium model with variable capacity utilization and weak wealth effects on labor supply. Investment-specific technology shocks introduce a source of fluctuations in absorption similar to taste shocks, thus reconciling theory and data. The paper also presents implications for the transmission mechanism of technology shocks across countries and for the Barro and King (1984) critique of investment shocks.
Term Structure Forecasting using Macro Factors and Forecast Combination
Authors: De Pooter Michiel D. , Ravazzolo Francesco , Dijk Dick van
Published: August 2019

We examine the importance of incorporating macroeconomic information and, in particular, accounting for model uncertainty when forecasting the term structure of U.S. interest rates. We start off by analyzing and comparing the forecast performance of several individual term structure models. Our results confirm and extend results found in previous literature that adding macroeconomic information, through factors extracted from a large number of individual series, tends to improve interest rate forecasts. We then show, however, that the predictive power of individual models varies over time significantly. Models with macro factors are the more accurate in and around recession periods. Models without macro factors do particularly well in low-volatility subperiods such as the late 1990s. We demonstrate that this problem of model uncertainty can be mitigated by combining individual model forecasts. Combining forecasts leads to encouraging gains in predictability, especially for longer-dated maturities, and importantly, these gains are consistent over time.
Interest on Excess Reserves as a Monetary Policy Instrument: The Experience of Foreign Central Banks
Authors: Gagnon Etienne , Bowman David , Leahy Michael P.
Published: August 2019

This paper reviews the experience of eight major foreign central banks with policy interest rates comparable to the interest rate on excess reserves paid by the Federal Reserve. We pursue two main lines of inquiry: 1) To what extent have these policy interest rates been lower bounds for short-term market rates, and 2) to what extent has tightening that included increasing these policy rates been achieved without reliance on reductions in reserves or other deposits held at the central bank? The foreign experience suggests that policy rate floors can be effective lower bounds for market rates, although incomplete access to central bank accounts and interest on them weakens this result. In addition, the foreign experience suggests that tightening by increasing the interest rate paid on central bank balances can help reduce or eliminate the need to drain balances. These results are consistent with theoretical results that show that tightening without draining is possible, irrespective of whether excess reserves are large or small.
Aggregate Hours Worked in OECD Countries: New Measurement and Implications for Business Cycles
Authors: Ohanian Lee E. , Raffo Andrea
Published: August 2019

We build a dataset of quarterly hours worked for 14 OECD countries. We document that hours are as volatile as output, that a large fraction of labor adjustment takes place along the intensive margin, and that the volatility of hours relative to output has increased over time. We use these data to reassess the Great Recession and prior recessions. The Great Recession in many countries is a puzzle in that labor wedges are small, while those in the U.S. Great Recession - and those in previous European recessions - are much larger.
Missing Import Price Changes and Low Exchange Rate Pass-through
Authors: Gagnon Etienne , Mandel Benjamin R. , Vigfusson Robert J.
Published: August 2019

A large body of empirical work has found that exchange rate movements have only modest effects on inflation. However, the response of an import price index to exchange rate movements may be underestimated because some import price changes are missed when constructing the index. We investigate downward biases that arise when items experiencing a price change are especially likely to exit or to enter the index. We show that, in theoretical pricing models, entry and exit have different implications for the timing and size of these biases. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) microdata, we derive empirical bounds on the magnitude of these biases and construct alternative price indexes that are less subject to selection effects. Our analysis suggests that the biases induced by selective exits and entries are modest over typical forecast horizons. As such, the empirical evidence continues to support the conclusion that exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices is low.
The Timing of Sovereign Defaults Over Electoral Terms
Authors: Foley-Fisher Nathan
Published: August 2019

I construct a database that maps the timing of sovereign default decisions into elected politicians&amp;amp;#x27; terms of office, that provides an empirical means of investigating political economy theories of sovereign default. I find no robust patterns in the timing of default decisions over terms of office. I also find no evidence in support of the political reputation theory of sovereign debt repayment. Finally, there is some tentative evidence that elected leaders who default are also those more likely to be re-elected. Motivated by anecdotal evidence, I use a stylised model of political leaders with career concerns to demonstrate how this can occur when politicians care about re-election.