bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Some extensions of the keyfitz momentum relationship
Authors: Tognetti Keith
Published: March 2007

A stable population, such that the total birthrateB(t) =Boerot, is abruptly altered by modifying the age-specific birth rate,m(x). The survivor function remains unaltered. The modified population ultimately settles down to a stable behavior, such thatB(t) =B1er1t. It is shown thatB1/B0 = (R0 −R1)/[(r0 −r1)R0Z1], whereR0,R1 are the net reproduction rates before and after the change, and expected age giving birth for the stable population after the change. The age structure and transients resulting from the change are also described. The effect of an abrupt change in the survivor functionl(x) is also investigated for the simple case where the change is caused by alteringl(x) toe−λxl(x). It is shown that the above ratio becomes, whereN refers to the numbers in the population,k =r0 + λ, andg(x) =m(x)l(x), the value before the change. A measure for the reproductive worth of the population is also established.
A note on migration and employment
Authors: Li Wen Lang
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the nature of the relation between migration and employment. A preliminary investigation confirms a previous observation that the employment rate of migrants is generally lower than that of non-migrants. A further analysis, however, suggests that this does not mean that migration has no effect on employment; in fact, the two appear to be strongly related. Migration enables some unemployed and initially disadvantaged persons to improve their employment status, making it more nearly comparable, though not equal, to that of the general population.
An instance of reverse heaping of ages
Authors: Myers Robert J.
Published: March 2007

This note reports on an interesting example of reverse heaping of ages for data from the Saudi Arabian social insurance system. Peaks occur for the number of workers at ages corresponding to years of birth ending in zeroes and fives, while there are troughs at such ages for the average monthly wages. Such troughs almost certainly are the result of workers with less education using a rounded year of birth, and, correspondingly, such workers would tend to have lower earnings.
The determinants of marital fertility in the united states, 1968–1970: Inferences from a dynamic model
Authors: Hout Michael
Published: March 2007

Criticizing the static assumptions of previous socioeconomic and microeconomic models of marital fertility, particularly regarding the sequential and stochastic facets of family building, this paper advocates a dynamic perspective. Of particular concern is the assumption of equilibrium family size made by those who employ the static perspective. The equilibrium family size assumption implies that the parameters relating social and economic variables to fertility will be similar for all births, regardless of order. To test this assumption of constancy, a two-equation model of fertility and female employment is introduced. Contrary to the static perspective’s implication of constant effects, substantial parity differences in the estimates of parameters for both equations are reported, as are several differences between blacks and whites. On the basis of this evidence, I conclude that the static decision-making framework should be replaced by a dynamic approach to marital fertility.
The rise in divorce rates, 1960–1974: Age-specific components
Authors: Michael Robert T.
Published: March 2007

This paper uses vital statistics data from 15 states in the Divorce Registration Area to decompose into age-specific components the rise in the aggregate divorce rate between 1960and 1974. While women in their twenties comprise only about 20 percent of the married population, they appear to have contributed over 60 percent of the growth in the divorce rate during the decade of the sixties.
Occupational status scores: Changes introduced by the inclusion of women
Authors: Powers Mary G. , Holmberg Joan J.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the impact of women’s labor force participation on occupational scores by comparing occupational status scores based on the characteristics of the 1970 male labor force with a set of occupational status scores based on the characteristics of the total 1970 labor force. Although the two sets of scores are highly correlated, important differences are found in the scores for specific occupations as well as for major occupational groups. Using the traditional list of 12 major occupational categories, we find that the positions of clerical workers and craftsmen are reversed when status scores are derived from data on all incumbents in the labor force rather than on male incumbents alone. The paper suggests that, with the increased participation of women in the labor force and the concomitant change in the sex composition of the work force, the traditional approaches to the measurement of occupational status based solely on male incumbents may no longer be valid for examining the occupational hierarchy of contemporary American society.
The simultaneous examination of economic and social factors in destination selection: Employing objective and subjective measures
Authors: Toney Michael B.
Published: March 2007

This research examines the role of social and economic factors in the past selection of destinations made by migrants living in Rhode Island. Results indicate that social ties playa more important role in the selection of destinations with low levels of opportunity than they do in the movement to high opportunity areas. An important aspect of the study was the simultaneous investigation of both objective and subjective measures of social and economic factors in the selection of low and high growth destinations. The analysis suggests that the simultaneous consideration of objective and subjective factors provides a more refined accounting of the potential influence of social and economic factors in the selection of destinations. The findings hold when age is introduced as a control.
Length of residence, social ties, and economic opportunities
Authors: Toney Michael B.
Published: March 2007

This study examines length of residence for movers—that subsection of the population which accounts for the high mobility rates in the United States. The propensity for repeated migration is studied in relation to economic opportunities and previous familial and personal contacts. The results indicate no influence of economic opportunities on duration of residence. This finding is consistent with recent research that indicates economic conditions are not a general stimulus for out-migration, although they are for in-migration. On the other hand, length of residence is found to be longer where previous familial and personal contacts existed. Overall, the results provide additional evidence of the importance of social, as opposed to strictly economic, variables in the migration process.
Female work experience, employment status, and birth expectations: Sequential decision-making in the Philippines
Authors: Rosenzweig Mark R.
Published: March 2007

The influence of women’s birth parity and accumulated market skills on their current labor force participation and birth expectations is examined within a sequential choice framework, Analysis of household data from the 1973 Philippines National Demographic Survey suggests these patterns: (a) women who have accumulated larger families work less in the current period and anticipate fewer additional births; (b) women with more past work experience tend to work more hours in the current period; and (c) work experience appears to have only a weak negative effect on birth expectations among older women.
Report on a multiple regression method for making population estimates
Authors: O’Hare William
Published: March 2007

A new method of making population estimates is introduced and contrasted to the standard ratio-correlation method. The new method, called the “difference-correlation method,” produced population estimates for the counties of Michigan which had a smaller mean percentage error than estimates produced by the ratio-correlation method. The differences of proportions which are used in the difference-correlation method will always have means of zero, while the ratios used in the ratio-correlation method have means which vary. Higher intercorrelations among the variables and increased temporal stability of the intercorrelations are two advantages of using differences rather than ratios.
Report on matching procedures of a dual record system in the southern Philippines
Authors: Madigan Francis C. , Wells H. Bradley
Published: March 2007

There are generally three stages to the development of rules for matching vital events data from two sources covering the same population: (a) establishing a set of “true” matches and nonmatches; (b) determining the best tolerance limits for each single characteristic which might be used in matching; and (c) experimenting to determine the set or sets of characteristics and the weights to be used in classifying a pair of records as matched or nonmatched. Specific examples, based on early matching experiments with data from the dual record system of the Mindanao Center for Population Studies (MCPS), are presented. Successive application of different sets of characteristics (differential valence rule) to the remaining unmatched events produced an acceptable rule for matching in this study.
Provisional evaluation of the 1970 census count of American Indians
Authors: Passel Jeffrey S.
Published: March 2007

Estimates of the American Indian population under 20 years of age on April I, 1970, based on birth and death statistics for a 20-year period, show a possible net undercount of 6.9 percent for this age group in the 1970 census. However, for some particular ages the estimates indicate net overcounts in the census. Likewise, the net increase of the entire American Indian population as measured by the difference between the 1960 and 1970 censuses is 67,000 greater than the natural increase for the decade. Detailed analysis of cohort data with respect to the possible causes of the differences between the estimates and the census figures indicate that a portion of the estimated net overcounts can be attributed to classification, as well as coverage, problems. The estimated net overcounts offer support for the hypothesis that many individuals who were registered as white at birth and who were counted as white in the 1960 census shifted their racial self-identification from white to American Indian during the 1960s.
Development and accuracy of projections of population and households in the united states
Authors: Siegel Jacob S.
Published: March 2007

The history of the official U. S. projections of population and house-holds in recent decades is briefly reviewed, with particular attention to methodology and the relation of the methodology to the accuracy of the projections. The introduction of the cohort-component procedure in the 1930’s opened the way for separate analysis of the trend of the components of births, deaths, and net immigration in connection with making population projections. As a further development, the period-fertility method of projecting births gave way in the 1960’s to the cohort-fertility method. Consideration is now being given to various methods involving parity-progression procedures. Some alternative methods and problems of measuring the accuracy of population projections are then considered. The percent “error” in the projected population growth, by components and age, and the range from high to low expressed as a percent should also be examined in addition to the percent “error” in the total population. However accuracy is measured, the projections made in the 1930’s and 1940’s were often wide of the mark, and those made in the 1950’s and 1960’s failed to anticipate the sharp changes which occurred, even though the actual figures usually fell within the range projected. Elaboration of projection methodology has not resulted in any great increase in the precision of the projections, largely because birth rates have fluctuated widely, and the fluctuations have proven difficult, if not impossible, to predict. The projections of households have had a roughly similar history, and the methods and problems of evaluation are somewhat similar. Their development has been characterized by the introduction of alternative and changing “headship” rates and increasing disaggregation of the data and procedures. The paper concludes with some generalizations based on U. S. experience. Although refinement of methods may contribute little to accuracy, accuracy is only one aspect of the usefulness of projections. The need for conditional projections and their analytical usefulness are such that there is no question that we should confidently continue to make them.
Residential Satisfaction as an Intervening Variable in Residential Mobility
Authors: Speare Alden
Published: March 2007

The stress-threshold model (Wolpert, 1965; Brown and Moore, 1970) assumes that people do not consider moving unless they experience residential stress. This paper develops a similar model of residential mobility in which residential satisfaction acts as an intervening variable between individual and residence variables and mobility. The model is tested with data from a panel study of Rhode Island residents. The results indicate that residential satisfaction at the first interview is related to the wish to move and to mobility in the year following the interview. Individual and residence characteristics such as age of head duration of residence, home ownership, and room crowding are shown to affect mobility through their effect on residential satisfaction.
Marriage, Divorce, and Mortality: A Life Table Analysis
Authors: Schoen Robert , Nelson Verne E.
Published: March 2007

The life status table, an analytical model which follows a birth cohort through life and through the never-married, presently married, widowed and divorced statuses, is developed and applied to data from four Western populations. Particular attention is given to recent marriage, remarriage, and divorce trends in California. California data for 1969 imply that 40 percent of all marriages will end in divorce, that each marrying male will marry an average of 12/3 times, and that every woman born can expect to spend 61/2 years in the divorced state. Rising divorce rates may be seen as signaling fundamental changes in both the nature of the American family and the structure of American society.
Community satisfaction, expectations of moving, and migration
Authors: Bach Robert L. , Smith Joel
Published: March 2007

A previous residential mobility model (Speare, 1974) assumes an additive relationship between residential satisfaction, desire to move, and mobility. This paper elaborates the model and applies it to intercounty migration. An interaction between community satisfaction and expectations to migrate is hypothesized which distinguishes four groups of decision makers. A survey in Durham, North Carolina and a unique mobility followup over eight years provide the data to test the model and the interaction. Furthermore, using various time periods for identifying migrants offers some methodological insights. Results support Speare’s general formulation but only after the interaction is taken into account. A three-year migration interval is found to be appropriate.
The concept of population density: A suggestion
Authors: Stairs Robert A.
Published: March 2007

A generalized formulation of various kinds of averages of population density is given.
Spline interpolation of demographic data
Authors: McNeil Donald R. , Trussell T. Jamel , Turner John C.
Published: March 2007

There are many problems in demography involving the smoothing or interpolation of data. Usually a solution is obtained by fitting a polynomial or a suitable model curve. Often, however, fitting a spline proves to be a simple recourse. Splines were invented nearly 30 years ago and have been shown to have desirable properties. Although spline functions are by no means unknown to demographers, no simple and direct explanation of their application exists. We hope to remedy this deficiency with this expository piece.
Target Fertility, Contraception, And Aggregate Rates: Toward A Formal Synthesis
Authors: Lee Ronald Demos
Published: March 2007

This paper develops a stock adjustment model relating total expected births to conventional aggregate fertility rates for married women over 25. Each year, cohorts bear about 20 percent of their additional expected births. Aggregate U.S. rates have been consistent with expectations as expressed in surveys between 1955 and 1975; indeed, total expected births may be inferred from aggregate fertility behavior. A peculiar empirical finding is that the additional expected fertility of nonterminators has not changed since 1955, despite the dramatic decline in total expected and actual fertility. The model leads to a dynamic expression for the duration pattern of current and cumulative fertility and for the proportion of couples who have terminated childbearing. The model is also used to analyze the effects of changing contraceptive failure rates on fertility patterns. For example, a decline in “timing” failure rates increases duration-specific fertility five years later.
Residential segregation in urbanized areas of the United States in 1970: An analysis of social class and racial differences
Authors: Farley Reynolds
Published: March 2007

Sociologists and urban commentators often portray metropolitan areas as highly segregated by social class and race. We measured the extent of socioeconomic residential segregation in urbanized areas of the United States in 1970, determined whether cities were as segregated as suburban rings, and compared levels of socioeconomic and racial residential segregation. We found moderate levels of residential segregation of socioeconomic groups. Levels of social class segregation varied little from one urbanized area to another and were about the same in central cities and suburban rings. Racial residential segregation was much greater than the segregation of social classes within either the black or white communities. The extent of racial residential segregation does not vary by educational attainment, occupation, or income.
Effects of the immigration act of 1965 on selected population characteristics of immigrants to the United States
Authors: Keely Charles B.
Published: March 2007

Recent changes in immigration law have affected the characteristics of immigrants coming to the United States. The major changes in immigration policy contained in the 1965 Immigration Act, which amended the McCarran-Walter Act of 1952, concerned the abolition of the quota system, preference system and labor clearances for certain classes of immigrants. The effects of these policy changes on two controversial characteristics of immigrants, their country of origin and occupational levels, are traced. The law led to clear changes in origin of immigrants. Southern European, Asian and Caribbean immigrants make up a larger proportion of immigrants than previously. Although the volume of immigration increased, the distribution of occupational levels remained about the same. The sources of the various occupational groups shifted to some extent, especially the professional level from Asian countries. Some effects of the policy changes and the changes in population characteristics on the American social and political scene are briefly outlined.
Chronic movers and the future redistribution of population: A longitudinal analysis
Authors: Morrison Peter A.
Published: March 2007

This research has two purposes. First, it examines individual- and household-level factors related to the propensity to move. The findings reveal that mobility is largely a matter of habitual movers changing residence repeatedly and frequently. The second objective is concerned with strengthening the foundation for projecting aggregate levels of mobility: (1) how does repeated movement manifest itself at the metropolitan scale? and (2) for predictive purposes, which aggregate indices capture the most important features of local population composition? Mobility rates were found to vary principally with the prevalence of chronic movers in an SMSA. These findings have several implications for policies designed to guide future population distribution. First, an SMSA’s capacity to correct local manpower imbalances by exchanging human capital with other areas may depend partially on its relative abundance of habitual movers. Second, the likelihood that new cities would attract disproportionate numbers of hypermobile persons might enhance their role within the framework of a broader distribution policy. The question posed here is whether high intrinsic levels of population turnover in some cities might fit into a larger strategy for realigning population growth and distribution nationally.
The relative importance of the components of urban growth in Latin America
Authors: Weller Robert H. , Macisco John J. , Martine George R.
Published: March 2007

Four generalizations are made. 1/ Despite the varying interpretations made by the respective authors, previous studies indicate that urban growth in Latin America is caused by both rural-urban migration and a positive rate of urban natural increase. Thus to ascribe Latin American urban growth to a single prime causal factor is a misleading oversimplification. 2/ Net in-migration apparently plays a larger role in determining the rate of growth of large metropolitan centers than is the case with smaller urban areas. 3/ A significant portion of urban growth in a given intercensal period may be attributed to the growth of localities previously too small to be classified as “urban”. 4/ Urban natural increase is the weighted sum of the natural increase of in-migrants (after their arrival) and urban natives. Improper recognition of this last point may lead to an overstatement of the relative importance of urban natural increase as a component of urban growth.
Intraindustry division of labor: The states of Mexico
Authors: Browning Harley L. , Gibbs Jack P.
Published: March 2007

Measures of occupational differentiation in each of eight industries vary markedly among the states of Mexico, a finding that is construed as evidence of territorial divergence in economic development. The relation among states between the relative size of an industry and the amount of occupational differentiation is direct for some industries but inverse for others. The interpretation is that industry size and intraindustry division of labor are directly related only to the extent that the labor force is concentrated territorially. Findings for the states of Mexico 1950 and 1960 are consistent with the interpretation.
On the human survivorship function and life table construction
Authors: Fergany Nader
Published: March 2007

The construction of life tables is often marred by one or more of the following restrictions: (1) assumptions that are either unjustifiable or of questionable generality; (2) rough approximations; (3) exacting data requirements. This paper recommends instead a simple method which regards the force of mortality as constant within each age interval. The reasoning is readily comprehensible and all life table functions are easily calculated from the age-specific death rates without any need for further assumptions, approximations, or data. Furthermore, this method produces numerical results that are close to those obtained by other methods.
Non-familial activity and socio-economic differentials in fertility
Authors: Kupinsky Stanley
Published: March 2007

The relationship between socio-economicstatus and fertility among married women is examined, using data from the 1/1,000 sample from the 1960 United States Census of Population and the 1960 Growth of American Families Study. Both sets of data indicate that the negative relationship between socio-economic status and fertility is still prevalent but may reflect different patterns of child-spacing rather than completed fertility. Labor force participation among these women is found to be negatively related to the number of children ever born. To determine the degree of involvement in this type of non-familial role, the work index or proportion of one’s married life engaged in the labor force is developed. The work index is found to be a particularly sensitive measure of involvement in the worker role vis-a-vis their fertility. The working hypothesis of this study, that such non-familial activity has a different effect according to one’s socio-economic status, is borne out. Participation in the labor force results in a relatively larger reduction in the fertility of upper status women than for those of lower status. However, this relationship apparently holds true only for those women from rural backgrounds but not for those from large urban areas.
On linear models in the study of perinatal mortality
Authors: Fischler B. , Peritz E. , Wingerd J.
Published: March 2007

Perinatal mortality in a population of 403,057 births was studied with respect to age, parity, and race in an attempt to see whether an additive model could satisfactorily account for the effects of these variables. It was found that additive models, as applied to both the mortality rates and their legit transforms gave only a very rough description of the data. First-order interactions, and in particular the interaction between age and parity, were found to be important. Secondorder interactions were negligible.
Trends in age at marriage in postwar Ireland
Authors: Walsh Brendan M.
Published: March 2007

Age at marriage in the Republic of Ireland has declined substantially from the very high level that prevailed in 1946. Between 1946 and 1969 the median age of grooms fell from 32 to 26 and of brides from 27 to 24. To some extent this is a reflection of the declining importance of the rural population but to a much greater extent it is due to the falling age at marriage among all sections of the population. Simultaneous with the decline in age at marriage, the frequency distributions of brides' and grooms' ages have become both more skewed and more peaked. Thus earlier marriage has also meant greater uniformity in age at marriage, but the phenomenon of first marriage at a fairly advanced age persists. There has been a marked trend towards greater equality between husbands' and wives' ages over the postwar period: the proportion of marriages in which there was less than five years' gap between the ages of the bride and groom rose from 49 percent in 1946 to 71 percent in 1969. The percentage of marriages in which the groom was ten or more years older than the bride has fallen from 22 to seven percent. The evidence suggests that the “marriage market” became less favourable to males (especially older males) over the period and that part of the narrowing in the gap in relative age of brides and grooms has been due to the greater willingness of younger males to marry. It also seems that changes in the age structure of the unmarried population has had an impact on the age distribution of grooms.
Optimal population and increasing returns to scale
Authors: Cole Robert E.
Published: March 2007

The paper deals with the common allegation that economies characterized by increasing returns of scale are suboptimally populated. Although increasing returns is a necessary condition for suboptimal population, it is demonstrated that it is not sufficient. Furthermore, a more stringent necessary condition is available, i.e., the degree of returns to scale must exceed one plus the capital share for the economy. This necessary condition may also be employed as a test of sufficiency for overpopulation. In the light of this criterion, it is suggested that the incidence of suboptimal population has been overestimated.
A stocks and flows approach to a theory of human migration with examples from past Irish migration
Authors: O'Rourke Desmond
Published: March 2007

While scientists from many disciplines have contributed to the understanding of specific instances of human migration, there is need for a more general theory of voluntary migration. This paper presents and tests (using data on Irish migration) an economic model which could serve as the core of a multidisciplinary general theory. The economic model postulates earnings differentials between countries and regions as the proximate cause of the generation of a stock of migrants. As a result of institutional barriers, personal inertia, incomplete knowledge of earnings differentials, etc., not all of the existing stock becomes a flow of migrants in any year. Application of this model to migration between different countries or between the same countries at different time periods can be of value to scientists in many disciplines in isolating the underlying causes for differing rates of awareness of and response to earnings differentials by potential migrants.
Some population characteristics of villages differentiated by size, location, and growth
Authors: Fuguitt Glenn V. , Field Donald R.
Published: March 2007

Selected social characteristics of individuals were examined for groups of villages simultaneously dichotomized by size, location relative to larger cities, and population change. The percent of people having a selected characteristic in each village group of the resulting eight-fold classification was taken as the dependent variable, and difference scores indicating main effects and first order interactions were obtained for each characteristic. The universe is the 375 incorporated places under 2500 in 1950outside the SMSAs of Wisconsin.

Size of place was found to be important for the sex ratio, education and income levels, and labor force and occupational variables. Characteristics associated with nearness to a large city included income, male labor force participation, occupation, and industry. Growth was important for age and sex differences, education, income, and some labor force, occupation, and industry variables. An interaction between location and growth was found for several occupation and industry characteristics.

The consistency between some of the results and previous research on larger places supports the contention that villages, although classified as rural, share many characteristics of urban centers. The industry and occupation differences by location, and the interaction between location and growth, strongly suggest that location is tied closely to function here. Places near cities over 25,000, especially those that are growing, may serve as residences for commuting blue-collar workers, or perhaps as small manufacturing centers, while most places more remote from cities continue to function as small service centers for a rural hinterland.
City–suburban destination choices among migrants to metropolitan areas
Authors: Kirschenbaum Alan
Published: March 2007

An analysis of destination choices among metropolitan bound migrants in an already highly urban society is a means toward gauging trends in the urbanization process. The results of this paper indicated that destination choices were strongly influenced by SMSA size, with larger SMSAs and particularly their suburban rings attractive to migrants. This pattern suggested the further growth of the larger SMSAs, to the detriment of those smaller in size. In addition, the varied status of migrants entering the ring pointed toward its increased heterogeneity. Yet, among small SMSAs, the central city received more and higher-status migrants than the ring. Here, destination choice was also linked to similarity to the migrant's past residence. Regional differences emerged, and a closer examination of small and very large SMSAs suggested that destination choices were influenced by previous patterns of urban growth.
Thailand’s urban population reconsidered
Authors: Goldstein Sidney , Goldstein Alice
Published: March 2007

In lieu of any official definition of “urban population” in Thailand, researchers and policy makers have generally used a simple urban-rural dichotomy, relying upon the administratively designated municipal areas as urban and the remainder of the kingdom as rural. For administrative purposes, however, a more refined set of residence categories is available: the “urban” segment is subdivided into three categories of municipal areas; within the “rural” group, units of population concentration classified as sanitary districts are distinguished from the remainder of the rural population. Data from a 1970 census sample tape have been used to analyze a number of socioeconomic characteristics, as well as migration and fertility, for each of these five residence categories separately in an attempt to determine if the formerly used rural-urban dichotomy is valid. For each of the characteristics and for migration and fertility, a clear urban-rural continuum emerges, with the sanitary districts generally resembling the smaller urban places more than they do the rural areas under which they are usually subsumed. The evaluation thus suggests the importance to research and policy either of using an urban-rural continuum or of grouping sanitary districts with municipal areas when a dichotomy must be used. Doing so should facilitate evaluation of the interrelations between urbanization and demographic and development factors.
Residential mobility on skid row: Disaffiliation, powerlessness, and decision making
Authors: Lee Barrett A.
Published: March 2007

Individual-level models of residential mobility emphasize (a) the stabilizing effects of various social, demographic, and housing characteristics and (b) the important mediating role played by decision-making variables. Data from a sample of skid row residents are analyzed to determine if these models retain their accuracy under conditions of disaffiliation and powerlessness. The findings indicate that, while older age, employment, and other characteristics may encourage residential stability on skid row, such factors influence mobility behavior in a direct fashion rather than through the intervening decision variables of residential evaluation and mobility expectation. In general, persons with weakened social attachments and little control over their lives and resources find it difficult to engage in the calculated, long-term type of decision-making process implied by mobility theory.
Factors related to the intention to have additional children in the United States: A reanalysis of data from the 1965 and 1970 national fertility studies
Authors: Lee Che-Fu , Khan Mohammad M.
Published: March 2007

Reproductive intentions of white mothers with no more than three children in 1965 and in 1970 were analyzed for their stability and change with respect to such factors as parity, age of the youngest child, wife’s employment, and husband’s education. Parity and age of the youngest child were found to have a much more important effect on the intent to have additional children than were such socioeconomic variables as wife’s employment and husband’s education. Parity and the interval since the latest birth (or the age of the youngest child) were found to have a nonlinear effect and to interact in affecting the reproductive intention. This suggests a convergence to a twochild family as the threshold size and that the length of childspacing is contingent on the parity. Change during 1965–1970 in this direction was found to be greater among mothers with husbands having college or higher educations.
A comparison of the probability of the dissolution of first and second marriages
Authors: McCarthy James
Published: March 2007

This paper applies the techniques of multiple decrement life tables to marriage histories collected as part of the 1973 National Survey of Family Growth, in an attempt to examine differences in pattern and level of marriage dissolution by marriage order. The paper considers the process of marriage dissolution in two stages—marriage to separation and separation to divorce—in addition to considering the composite of these two, marriage to divorce. Second marriages are more likely to remain intact only for blacks. For all subgroups of whites, second marriages are either as likely or more likely to dissolve than first marriages. For both first and second marriages, blacks are considerably less likely to obtain a divorce after separation.
Marital dissolution, remarriage, and childbearing
Authors: Thornton Arland
Published: March 2007

Earlier models of fertility hypothesize that marital dissolution and remarriage influence subsequent childbearing. This issue is examined by comparing the fertility of those in disrupted marriages with that of those in stable marriages. The results indicate that, by transferring women into a nonmarried status, marital dissolution decreases childbearing. The data also suggest that discord reduces fertility even before separation occurs—separated women had reduced fertility during the two years just before separation. It was found that marital dissolution without remarriage operates to truncate childbearing, thus decreasing family size. Dissolution followed by remarriage, however, lengthens the childbearing span of whites and has no influence on average family size; remarrying white women are able to make up for the childbearing lost between marriages. For nonwhites, we found that dissolution and remarriage increase the average time to childbirth, but, even more importantly, these events greatly decrease the number of children born.
Interdivisional migration differentials by education for groups of selected SMSA’S, United States, 1960
Authors: Zodgekar A. V. , Seetharam K. S.
Published: March 2007

An attempt is made to investigate the educational differentials between various types of interdivisional migrants and nonmigrants in selected Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA’s) of the United States. The analysis is carried out for four color-sex groups standardized for age. We have been able to identify three distinct patterns of migration differentials by education, that is, the J-shaped, the U-shaped, and the reverse J -shaped distributions. The tendency for migrants to be better educated than nonmigrants, by and large, has received support from the data we have analyzed. Wherever this tendency has not been confirmed, the main factors which, we believe, have influenced the differentials are the proportion of foreign-born whites, the geographic location of the places of origin and destination, and the differences in levels of educational attainment.
Social structure and the female labor force: The case of women workers in muslim Middle Eastern countries
Authors: Youssef Nadia H.
Published: March 2007

In terms of quantitative comparative data Middle Eastern countries report systematically the lowest female participation rates in economic activities outside of agriculture. This behavior represents a deviation from the current experience of other developing nations and from the historical experience of the now-industrialized West. Using comparative data on female employment patterns in Latin American countries which are at roughly a similar stage of economic development, it is shown that the low level and particular character of women's involvement in the work force in the Middle East can be explained by institutional arrangements contingent upon aspects of social structure. Five countries are selected for intensive analysis: Chile, Mexico, Egypt, Morocco and Pakistan. One major aspect of social organization and its cultural adjuncts is emphasized: The interplay between the volitional avoidance by women of certain occupational sectors because of the social stigmatizing aspect and the prohibition of occupational opportunities imposed by males. The combined effects of this tradition of female seclusion and exclusion are confirmed by the detailed analysis of the structure of the non-agricultural labor force: Middle Eastern women are absent systematically from occupational and industrial sectors of employment which involve public activity and presuppose contact with males.
Family growth, household density, and moving
Authors: Chevan Albert
Published: March 2007

Residential and family histories collected from a sample of 4,027 couples in their first marriage and living in the Philadelphia-Trenton metropolitan area in 1960 are analyzed to determine the effects of marriage duration and childbearing on moving within the “local area.” Rates of moving decline sharply during the early years of marriage and more slowly after the tenth year. At any given marriage duration, the birth of children is associated with higher rates of moving. If the persons-per-room ratio of non-movers represents an acceptable household density, moving can be shown to be an adjustment mechanism whereby housing space is brought in balance with family needs. When couples who moved during a given three-year period defined in terms of marriage duration are compared with couples who did not move during that period, the movers are found to have had higher initial densities, would have had substantially higher densities had they not moved, but have similar terminal (after move) densities.
The contraceptive potential of early versus delayed insertion of the intrauterine device
Authors: Potter Robert G. , Masnick G. Stephan
Published: March 2007

One argument for a postpartum program of contraception is minimizing chances that the mother will conceive again before she can accept contraception. However early insertion increases the extent of overlap between retention of the device and anovulation when the woman is protected anyway while at the same time reducing the average span of wearing time coinciding with fecundable months when protection is needed. Thus it is not clear that early insertion yields the maximal postponement of next conception. Delaying insertion three or even six months might accomplish more. To investigate this matter, a model has been developed which incorporates the following factors: time of insertion, distribution of anovulatory length, natural fecundability and rates of effectiveness and continuation of IUD. It turns out that predicated upon the distribution of anovulatory length regarded as most realistic, the penalty of early insertion in terms of reduced postponement of next conception proves consistently small.
Mortality level, desired family size, and population increase: Comment
Authors: Cochrane Susan Hill
Published: March 2007

In this paper an attempt is made to elaborate on the behavioral assumptions underlying a simulation model published in a previous volume of this journal (Heer and Smith, 1968). The present paper contains a discussion of the ways in which a fall in the death rate of children will affect the desirability of another birth if the family's objective is to have a son surviving to the father's sixty-fifth birthday. The death rate affects both the expected costs of and benefits from an additional birth. An examination of the effects of a decline in child mortality indicates that the benefits from an additional birth fall and the expected costs rise as a result of the decline. Thus a death rate will eventually be reached where costs exceed benefits, and parents will not desire an additional pregnancy.
A new look at the marriage market and nuptiality rates, 1915–1958
Authors: Hirschman Charles , Matras Judah
Published: March 2007

The system of nuptiality probabilities for never married males and females, the “marriage regime,” is viewed as a population transformation, which operates on a population thereby changing the composition. The marriage regime has many properties common to other population transformations, but embodies a constraint such that, in general, the marriage regime cannot be strictly stable over time. The approach is applied to study the “marriage squeeze,” the alteration in marriage patterns that results from an imbalance in the “marriage market” or numbers of never married males and females at the usual marriage ages. Using data on age at first marriage for the 1960 American white population, nuptiality probabilities by single year of age and sex are estimated for the years 1915–58. Annual estimates also are made of the relative number of eligible mates (never married of the usual marriage ages) for never married persons of a given age and sex. No close correspondence is found between annual fluctuations in the marriage market and in the nuptiality probability, possibly because of the crudeness of the estimates. Alternatively, response to the imbalance may take another form such as marriage postponement or a redefinition of eligibility.
Effect of Mortality Change on Stable Population Parameters
Authors: Preston Samuel H.
Published: March 2007

The stable population model is used to establish formulas expressing the effects of mortality change on population growth rates, birth rates, and age composition. The change in the intrinsic growth rate is shown to be quite accurately approximated by the average decline in age-specific death rates between age zero and the mean age at childbearing in the stable population. This change is essentially independent of the initial level of fertility in the population. Changes in birth rates and age composition are shown to be simple functions of the age pattern of cumulative changes in mortality rates relative to an appropriately defined “neutral” standard.
Some determinants of the migration of professional manpower
Authors: Wermuth Dieter , Wermuth Nanny
Published: March 2007

Determinants of migration of professional manpower are investigated using data from a 1970 survey of immigrants to the United States. From a respondent’s stated “intent to stay” in the United States and five other characteristics a six-dimensional contingency table is formed. We find a well-fitting log-linear model for this table. Thus, we establish the importance of selected determinants of migration and present a table of predicted rates of intent to stay in the United States
A method for the estimation of fecundability
Authors: Bongaarts John
Published: March 2007

A new method for the estimation of the mean and variance of fecundability is described. The data input required for this procedure is the distribution of the interval from marriage to first birth, or from the resumption of the conception risk after contraception to the subsequent birth. The estimates of the mean and variance of fecundability are obtained by fitting a model to the observed interval distribution. To test the method, it is applied to data from five historical populations. The fecundability means in these populations ranged from 0.18 to 0.31 while the coefficients of variation all had values near 0.56. A short method for the estimation of the mean of fecundability based on the same model, but not requiring a computer, is also presented.
Black-White Differentials in Infant Mortality in the South, 1940–1970
Authors: Shin Eui Hang
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the trends and variations in the black-white differentials in infant mortality in ten selected Southern states during the 1940–1970 period. The patterns observed from the Southern states are compared with those observed from seven selected Northern states and the country as a whole. The ratios of black to white infant mortality rates and Fein’s “time-lag” statistics are used as measures of the extent of black-white differentials.

The gaps between blacks and whites in both neonatal and postneonatal mortality rates have widened in the Southern states between 1940 and 1970. No significant differences between the Southern states and the Northern states in the extent of black-white differentials in infant mortality were observed. A positive association between variations among the Southern states in postneonatal mortality differentials and income differentials was found, while neonatal mortality differentials had a weak inverse relationship with income inequality. A series of general explanations of the observed trends and variations have been presented. Also, a detailed methodological consideration of the possible influence of artifacts of the data upon the trends and variations has been made.