bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Consideration of a Biased Estimate in an Information-Sampling Situation
Authors: Chambers John C.
Published: November 2008

Sampling errors are generally a function of two factors the time spent making an observation, and the total number of observations. In addition, if sampling error costs are not symmetrically distributed about the true value, there is a problem as to whether the sampling mean should be used as a basis for making a decision, or if a biased estimate should be used. A general model is developed in this paper for the total expected cost of a sampling procedure as a function of the sample size, observation time per sample unit, and the use of a biased estimate. The general model is then applied to a specific situation to illustrate the application of the model. A method is also given for evaluating the observational variance as a function of observation time.
Towards a Unified Theory of Road Traffic
Authors: Haight Frank A.
Published: November 2008

The operating speed y of a car is a function of desired speed x and traffic density λ, where x and y are random variables, and λ a real parameter. Relationships are proposed between the distributions of x and y and quantities which occur in empirical studies of traffic. It is postulated that for large λ queuing theory may be usefully employed, and several necessary modifications are discussed. A résumé of literature is included.
Multiple Objectives in Mathematical Programming
Authors: Klahr Carl N.
Published: November 2008

The abstraction from a real situation to a model suitable for mathematical programming often raises the dilemma of multiple objective functions, and of the arbitrary roles of objective functions and restrictions. This dilemma is resolved by formulating a more general model of the total objective function. This formulation includes (1) defining a subobjective space, (2) defining a set of mutually exclusive regions in subobjective space, (3) defining an individual objective function for each such region, (4) indicating an order of preference for the regions. Examples are given for the problems of optimal product mix and military aircraft design.
Letters to the Editor—A Sample Survey of Industrial Operations-Research Activities
Authors: Hovey Ronald W. , Wagner Harvey M.
Published: November 2008

In teaching operations research in a university, in advising students as to career opportunities, and in recommending to industrial and commercial firms the consideration of recent management science techniques, one inevitably faces the following questions. Who is adopting operations-research methods? What are the areas of current application? Has the approach been successful? What educational training is recommended towards a profession in this area?
Letter to the Editor—Comments on Brooks' Discussion of Random Methods
Authors: Hooke Robert , Jeeves T. A.
Published: November 2008

Comments on the principal argument in Dr Samuel H. Brooks' paper, “A Discussion of Random Methods for Seeking Maxima,” Opns Res. 6, 244–251, March–April 1958.
Letter to the Editor—Production Schedules Involving Cancellation and Obsolescence Risks
Authors: Walsh John E.
Published: November 2008

For some types of items that are to be manufactured, both cancellation of production and obsolescence of the product are important considerations. If a schedule that calls for too rapid a production of the item is used, a large loss (excess tooling costs, etc.) occurs when the manufacturing is cancelled prematurely. Conversely, if too slow a production schedule is used, a large loss in over-all product worth can arise because of the obsolescence, or nearness to obsolescence, of a substantial amount of the product. Thus selection of a suitable production schedule represents a compromise between the risk of cancellation and obsolescence. This note presents a method for deciding which schedule, among a given group of schedules, is preferable for the production of an item of the type considered.
Letter to the Editor—Applicability of the Lognormal Distribution to Servicing Times in Congestion Problems
Authors: Horvath William J.
Published: November 2008

This note is to call attention to the applicability of the logarithmic normal distribution [1] in queuing problems where the customary negative exponential gives a poor fit to measured servicing times. A recent example from the literature is the study made by Brigham [2] of the congestion at tool cribs in an aircraft factory. Table I shows data taken from Figs 1 and 2 of his paper together with the lognormally and exponentially fitted values. The exponential fits were obtained from Brigham's paper while the lognormal points were determined from the best straight line fitted to the data plotted on logarithmic probability paper. When a good fit is obtained over the entire range, this crude procedure yields better than 1 per cent accuracy. For a more accurate method based on iterative procedures the reader is referred to Aitchison and Brown's book on the subject [3].
Economic Lot Sizes with Seasonal Demand
Authors: Schupack Mark B.
Published: November 2008

The simplest economic lot size formula containing only carrying costs and ordering costs is here extended to include the case of seasonal demand. Shortages and uncertainty are not allowed. The key step is the fitting of an analytical function to the seasonal demand pattern by means of harmonic analysis. This requires the demand to be specified as that consumed during N discrete and equal time periods. This function can then be manipulated to obtain the average inventories and optimum ordering times for the N possible ordering patterns using a graphical method of solution. The lowest-cost ordering pattern can then be determined by comparing the costs of the N ordering patterns. Limitations to the method are noted.
Solutions of a Class of Discrete-Time Inventory Problems
Authors: Morse Philip M.
Published: November 2008

In solving problems of inventory control, where fluctuation in demand and/or supply must be taken into account, two classes of operational procedure lead to two different techniques for solution. If operating decisions (orders for replacement, for example) are made whenever the inventory reaches certain preassigned levels, the queuing theory model may be used. But if operating decisions are made at the ends of finite periods of time, on the basis of inventory counts made then, the techniques of the theory of Markov processes are usually applicable. Several general situations of the latter class are analyzed in the present paper those where the size of the replenishment order is equal to the number of demands arriving during the last period, or where the order is “quantized” in multiples of some lot-size q, those where the replenishment order is delivered within the next period, and those where sometimes delivery is delayed one or more periods. Techniques of solution are displayed for finding the steady-state probabilities that inventories of various sizes are present at the beginning of a period and various measures of effectiveness of the operation are computed from these probabilities. Finally, it is shown how asymptotic formulas for large demand rates can be obtained for these measures, in terms of the standard deviation of the interarrival times between demands.
An Analysis of Traffic Flow
Authors: Greenberg Harold
Published: November 2008

A model for traffic flow is developed by treating the traffic stream as a continuous fluid. Fluid dynamic principles are then used to derive relations between speed, density, and flow.
Brownian Motion in the Stock Market
Authors: Osborne M. F. M.
Published: November 2008

It is shown that common-stock prices, and the value of money can be regarded as an ensemble of decisions in statistical equilibrium, with properties quite analogous to an ensemble of particles in statistical mechanics. If Y = loge[P(t + r)/P0(t)], where P(t + r) and P0(t) are the price of the same random choice stock at random times t + r and t, then the steady state distribution function of Y is [Formula: see text], which is precisely the probability distribution for a particle in Browman motion, if σ is the dispersion developed at the end of unit time. A similar distribution holds for the value of money, measured approximately by stock-market indices. Sufficient, but not necessary conditions to derive this distribution quantitatively are given by the conditions of trading, and the Weber-Fechner law. A consequence of the distribution function is that the expectation values for price itself ℰ(P) = ∫0∞ Pφ(Y)(dY/dP) dP increases, with increasing time interval τ, at a rate of 3 to 5 per cent per year, with increasing fluctuation, or dispersion, of P. This secular increase has nothing to do with long-term inflation, or the growth of assets in a capitalistic economy, since the expected reciprocal of price, or number of shares purchasable in the future, per dollar, increases with τ in an identical fashion.
A Queuing System with Service-Time Distribution of Mixed Chi-Squared Type
Authors: Wishart David M. G.
Published: November 2008

In this paper Kendall's technique of the embedded Markov chain (Kendall, D. G. 1953. Stochastic processes in the theory of queues. Ann. Math. Stat. 24 338–354.) is applied to a queuing system with general independent input and a wide class of service-time distributions. The matrix of transition probabilities is found to be formally identical with that discussed in our earlier study (Wishart, D. M. G. 1956. A queuing system with χ2 service-time distribution. Ann. Math. Stat. 27 768–779.), which will be taken as read in the present paper. Using the results of reference 9 we can write down the equilibrium distribution of waiting-times for customers in the more general system in terms of the roots of a transcendental equation. An example is considered that arose in Bailey's study of hospital systems (Bailey, N. T. J. 1952. A study of queues and appointment systems in hospital out-patient departments. J. Roy. Stat. Soc. B14 185–199.).
Tatistical Data Useful for the Operation of a Baseball Team
Authors: Lindsey G. R.
Published: November 2008

Baseball is a game well suited for operations analysis, and is already well provided with statistical records of past performances of individuals. For the making of operational decisions before and during a game, the manager must use the existing records of past performances with caution, but he could derive considerable assistance from types of statistics not commonly collected. One such type would show the average performance of a large number of batters in selected circumstances. An example is given which shows that an advantage of 0.032 applies to the batter whose “handedness” is opposite to that of the pitcher. The sampling error for a season's batting average is too great to permit much useful analysis of the proficiency of one individual in selected circumstances, although special records might be kept in batting practice. The sampling error should be allowed for when judging a new player before he has had several hundred times at bat. Aside from individual performance, data on the chances of a team in selected circumstances would be useful for deciding tactics and changes in the line-up. As an example, an analysis is given of the expectation of runs after a team has filled the bases, and its application to the choice of a defensive strategy.
Optimum Properties for Defense Strategy of Equal Attack Against All Targets
Authors: Walsh John E.
Published: November 2008

Mathematical models for offense-defense interactions often specify that each member of an offense force receives the same amount of attack from the defense. This equal attack condition is usually motivated by the assumption that the members of the raid are indistinguishable to the defense and randomly arranged in their exposure to attack. This paper shows that the equal attack per raid member procedure has desirable properties when viewed as a deliberate defense strategy. Namely, it is optimum in a game theory sense for an important class of situations even if the defense is considered to have more knowledge about the raid and more attack capabilities than would ordinarily be available. The additional knowledge consists of the ability to segregate the members of the offense force into groups that have the same route, payload, and payload destination. The additional capability consists of the ability to separately attack the members of a group without suffering kill degradation from the presence of the other members of the raid.
Letter to the Editor—An Inventory Model for Repair Parts—Approximations in the Case of Variable Delivery Time
Authors: Beckmann Martin J.
Published: November 2008

The following continuous inventory problem arises in connection with the storage of repair parts. Let demand be for one unit at a time and Poisson, and let delivery time be either fixed or a random variable of known distribution. The size of an order need not be specified until the time of actual production or delivery. The following costs are assumed to be given. A storage cost proportional to quantity of stock and time, a fixed cost of ordering, and a penalty for shortage proportional to the amount of the shortage and its duration. No orders are lost. Alternatively the probability of a loss may be incorporated in the shortage penalty.
Letter to the Editor—Flood's Assignment Model for Small Kill Levels
Authors: Ash Milton
Published: November 2008

At a Princeton University Conference on Linear Programming held on March 13–15, 1957, Merrill M. Flood suggested a target-assignment model of a highly nonlinear nature. This model was simplified in a recent article (Manne, A. S. 1958. A target assignment problem. Oper. Res. (May–June) 346–351.) and thereby adapted to solution by linear programming. The following is an attempt at a simplification of the model in a different direction, that of small-kill levels. This is done so that ordinary Lagrange-multiplier methods can be used to solve the problem.
Errata
Authors: Vaswani Ram
Published: November 2008

Author's correction of his paper “The Value of Irreducibles in the Planning of Service Systems,” Operations Research, vol. 6, pp. 740–765 (September–October, 1958).
A Report on Some Organizational Experiments
Authors: Clark Donald F. , Ackoff Russell L.
Published: November 2008

An organizational analog is constructed in the form of an operational game to be used for testing hypotheses concerning the effect of organizational structure on the efficiency of organizational performance. The ultimate objective is to develop mathematical theory, which makes this relation explicit. Several experiments using the game are described where the effect of such variables as the presence or absence of an executive, the availability of communication channels, and the cooperativeness or competitiveness of payoffs are tested. The work is preliminary, but holds promise of productive use of gaming in theory construction.
Inference from Tests with Continuously Increasing Stress
Authors: Allen William R.
Published: November 2008

This paper contains a brief résumé of a mathematical foundation for construction and analysis of accelerated life tests. The effects, on distribution of time to failure, of several special methods of accelerating life are studied. A special type of accelerated life test for capacitors is examined in detail. Three methods for estimating the parameter of the original distribution, from data gathered from the accelerated tests, are indicated if the original distribution is negative exponential.
An Operations-Research Evaluation Technique of the Use of Sales-Research Information
Authors: Chacko George K.
Published: November 2008

A working hypothesis about the process by which the raw data of a sales organization are used in decision-making has been found necessary in the ongoing inquiry into the optimum structure of information for a multi-plant, multi-product organization. In discussing such a model, certain inherent limitations besetting even the best raw data that constitute the input for research information are precipitated. The not-so-direct paths, from raw data to research information, from research information to decision-making, and from decision-making to change in sales make the model more difficult to define functionally and to determine empirically. The work of Marketing and Management Research at Royal Metal Manufacturing Company, New York, itself is still centered around the input of raw data and the output of research information, which is at least two steps away conceptually from the operations-research evaluation technique of the use of research information. Nevertheless, the first step itself has been found to benefit immensely from the working hypothesis about the relation it holds with the subsequent steps in the model, as seen from the application of the operations-research cycle—specification, production, inspection, and respecification—to research information.
Traffic Analysis of Small Telephone Switchboards
Authors: Coe James C.
Published: November 2008

The emphasis in this work has been on maximal utilization under critical conditions, of the operator, lines, and subscribers, in the belief that in combat communications they are extremely important, and limiting factors should be known and understood so that corrective measures can be taken. This is shown by the difference in service between six or more subscribers, and between short and long conversations. Some of the results obtained are as follows. There are load conditions where the addition of a second operator does not improve service, in fact, it can be detrimental. Under some conditions the number of lines is the limiting factor, and with others the operator is the limiting factor. There are heavily loaded conditions where service is not much better with a fast board than with a slow board. A board which is 15 per cent faster may give an improvement of less than 1 per cent under some conditions. There are conditions that require subscribers to spend far more time in waiting and trying than in talking. Operations that take up the operator's time are multiplied to the subscribers, and result in much poorer service than is apparent just from the increase in operator occupancy. Adding a second line to a busy subscriber generally improves service to all subscribers. Dividing a given calling rate between more subscribers (or trunks) always improves service. Increasing the calling rate always makes for poorer service. Reducing message length always improves service. Long conversations are the greatest obstacle to good service. Conference calls can ruin service if prior conversations are allowed to continue without interruption.
Letter to the Editor—An Abridged Table for Infinite Queues
Authors: Kometani Eiji
Published: November 2008

The following table was originally compiled to facilitate computations of the capacity of the arrival platform of a bus terminal. In this case, the distribution of vehicles entering the bus terminal is considered to be the Poisson distribution, and the distribution of the time during which a bus occupies the arrival platform in order to discharge its passenger is considered to be an exponential function.
Computer Terrain Simulation for Line-of-Sight Calculations
Authors: Ford Lester R. , Isaacson H. S. , Pethel F. C.
Published: November 2008

A method is proposed for handling terrain line-of-sight questions in a digital computer. The formulas used are described. Some examples comparing computer calculated “invisible areas” with the results obtained from standard manual profiling techniques are included. This method has been applied to the problem of printing invisibility overlays for a standard military map using the IBM 709 computer.
Optimal Inventory Location and Control in Production and Distribution Networks
Authors: Hanssmann Fred
Published: November 2008

The problem of finding optimal inventory control schemes has received considerable attention in the literature for the case of one inventory at a given location in a production process or distribution system. Almost no analytical work has been devoted to systems of interacting inventories at different locations, and to the problem of selecting optimal inventory locations from a number of possible ones. This is the subject of the present paper. The traditional cost-of-shortage concept is given up in favor of a functional relation between expected demand and average delivery time to the customer. The measure of system performance is sales revenue minus inventory carrying cost. A method employing a combination of dynamic programming and a one-dimensional maximization procedure, yields the optimal inventory locations as well as the corresponding order rules.
Letter to the Editor—A Classroom Example of Linear Programming
Authors: Brigham Georges
Published: November 2008

The solution to this problem is submitted not because it has any theoretical interest at this time—linear programming has gone quite beyond this—but because it seems to be a good classroom example of the use of linear programming in solving a type of OR problem to minimize the cost of a feed mix subject to the requirements laid down by the manufacturer as to the characteristics of this mix.
Errata
Authors: Firstman Sidney I.
Published: November 2008

Correction to the author's paper “A Vulnerability Model for Weapon Sites with Interdependent Elements,” Operations Research, vol. 7, pp. 217–225 (March–April, 1959).
The Scheduling of a Barge Line
Authors: O'Brien George G. , Crane Roger R.
Published: November 2008

This paper is the case history of an operations-research study of a barge line undertaken in the summer of 1954. One problem considered was the scheduling of tugs and the determination of the resulting number of barge loads per year which would result. The second problem was to determine the proper balance between tugs and barges for three or four tugs. These problems were solved by simulating the operation, the results of the simulation led to recommendations and predictions. These predictions are compared to the actual data over the ensuing years as the recommendations were carried out.
A Theory of Platoon Formation in Tunnel Traffic
Authors: Newell G. F.
Published: November 2008

A crude mathematical model is constructed to represent the flow of traffic in tunnels or other finite sections of highway on which passing is impossible. The main ingredients of the model are: (1) each car has a desired speed which is considered to be a random variable, (2) the actual speed of any car is the smaller of its own desired speed and the actual speed of the car ahead of it, (3) if the latter speed is the smaller, the trailing car maintains some fixed spacing Δ behind its predecessor. The consequences of the model are: (1) the capacity of a tunnel is a monotone decreasing function of its length, (2) the velocity of any car is an increasing function of its distance from the entrance and is equal to the smallest of its own desired speed and those of all other cars in the tunnel ahead of it, (3) the spacing between cars is equal to Δ for most cars but when the spacing is larger than Δ, it is usually much larger and increases with the distance from the entrance.
A Game-Theory Analysis of Tactical Air War
Authors: Berkovitz L. D. , Dresher Melvin
Published: November 2008

An important problem in tactical air war is concerned with the allocation at each strike of the tactical forces among such competing air tasks as counter-air, air-defense, and support of ground operations. We formulate a two-person multimove game in which the allocation decisions of the combatants represent the moves of the game. In this game model we assume that counter-air missions destroy enemy forces, air-defense missions reduce the enemy's counter-air operations, and support of ground operations contribute to the payoff. We describe the optimal allocations derived from the game-theoretic analysis of this model. The paper concludes with a discussion of possible implications of our results for operational gaming.
The Schedule-Sequencing Problem
Authors: Bowman Edward H.
Published: November 2008

A tentative solution to the general schedule-sequencing problem is presented in a linear-programming form. Feasible solutions hinge on work recently presented on integer solutions to linear-programming problems. As yet, the computation involved for a practical problem would be quite large.
Application of a Technique for Research and Development Program Evaluation
Authors: Malcolm D. G. , Roseboom J. H. , Clark C. E. , Fazar W.
Published: November 2008

This paper describes the development and application of a technique for measuring and controlling development progress for the Polaris Fleet Ballistic Missile program, Special Projects Office, Bureau of Ordnance, U.S. Navy. Project PERT (Program Evaluation Research Task) was set up to develop, test, and implement a methodology for providing management with integrated and quantitative evaluation of (a) progress to date and the outlook for accomplishing the objectives of the FBM program, (b) validity of established plans and schedules for accomplishing the program objectives, and (c) effects of changes proposed in established plans. In the PERT model, the R and D program is characterized as a network of interrelated events to be achieved in proper ordered sequence. Basic data for the analysis consists of elapsed time estimates for activities which connect dependent events in the network. The time estimates are obtained from responsible technical persons and are subsequently expressed in probability terms. This model is described. Test of the model on a specific component, design of a management control system properly related to existing management systems, reduction to the NORC computer, difficulties in implementation and preliminary results to date are discussed. Limitations of the model, and possible refinements and use of the computer model for testing schedules and for management experimentation in resource and performance tradeoffs are described.
The Selection of Projects for Industrial Research
Authors: Mottley C. M. , Newton R. D.
Published: November 2008

Research organizations have a tendency to propose problems for investigation at a faster rate than resources can be supplied to support the work. This poses a fundamental issue for the managers of industrial research because there are always more ideas and problems to be investigated than the available resources will permit. Research management, therefore, is faced with the problem of selecting the set of projects that it expects will achieve maximum effectiveness for the company. The paper presents a method of evaluating applied research proposals that is based on the use of numerical scores to quantify certain important criteria, such as the promise of success, the time required for completion, the projected costs, the market situation, and the expected gain. The composite scores can be used to determine the best project mix or program for a given budget allocation. The rating system serves to enhance managerial judgments at all levels regarding the selection of individual projects, the makeup of the research program, and the evaluation of the program's future economic impact on the company.
The Landing Capacity of a Runway
Authors: Blumstein Alfred
Published: November 2008

An expression is developed for the landing capacity (or service rate) of a single runway in which aircraft are restricted by a minimum space separation at the beginning of a common approach glide path and by a minimum time separation at the runway. The conditions at any terminal may be inserted to determine its characteristic landing capacity. Single runways at the New York area terminals are shown to have landing capacities of 30–40 landings per hour. It is shown that the greatest improvement in the present landing rate can be achieved by reducing the separation at the beginning of the common path, and that little is gained by reducing only the time separation at the runway.
Application of Operations Research to Complex Financial Agreements—A Profit-Sharing Illustration
Authors: Shakun Melvin F.
Published: November 2008

In a number of cases, operations-research techniques have solved problems arising in giving effect to complex financial agreements. In the situation to be described, the initial wording of an involved profit-sharing-incentive plan lacked operational definition, and a mathematical approach was needed in order to clarify the basic intent of the interested parties and to translate it into a mutually acceptable set of calculating procedures. The mathematical formulation involves the solution of simultaneous linear or nonlinear equations depending on the amount of profit earned by the company.
Bibliography on the Use of Simulation in Management Analysis
Authors: Malcolm D. G.
Published: November 2008

Computer simulation, as a problem-solving technique, is now proving to be of increasing value as part of research and design methods directed towards attaining a better understanding and improved control of the operations of complex business and military organization. In system simulation the computer is typically utilized in problem-solving associated with the specific tasks of designing better systems, understanding the workings of operative systems, and studying man-machine interactions.

Literature dealing with system simulation is appearing more frequently, but still sporadic enough to warrant the collection here of a number of individual titles that have proved of special interest.

This bibliography represents a fair sampling of simulation literature to date. For the convenience of the user, industrial and military applications have been kept separate. Finally, a number of titles on simulation training games and exercises have been included.
Letter to the Editor—A New Measure of Effectiveness for Queuing Problems
Authors: Rawdin E.
Published: November 2008

This letter indicates that another measure of effectiveness is of interest in certain queuing evaluation, different from those indicated by Saaty [Saaty, T. L. 1957. Resume of useful formulas in queuing theory. Opns Res. 5 161–200.] and Feller [Feller, W. 1957. An Introduction to Probability Theory and Its Applications, Vol. 1. Wiley, New York.].
Letter to the Editor—Failure Testing in Preventive Maintenance
Authors: Greenberg Harold
Published: November 2008

A proper rejection of the faulty components may be made when the probability of failure of the component is known, together with auxiliary information from test equipment having known accuracy. It is then possible to develop a schedule to reject components and maintain a high percentage of operating time.
Letter to the Editor—Note on a Paper by Firstman
Authors: Schild Albert
Published: November 2008

Note on “A Vulnerability Model for Weapon Sites with Interdependent Elements,” Operations Research, volume 7, pp. 217–225, 533 (1959).
Algorithms for Solving Production-Scheduling Problems
Authors: Giffler B. , Thompson G. L.
Published: November 2008

Algorithms are developed for solving problems to minimize the length of production schedules. The algorithms generate anyone, or all, schedule(s) of a particular subset of all possible schedules, called the active schedules. This subset contains, in turn, a subset of the optimal schedules. It is further shown that every optimal schedule is equivalent to an active optimal schedule. Computational experience with the algorithms shows that it is practical, in problems of small size, to generate the complete set of all active schedules and to pick the optimal schedules directly from this set and, when this is not practical, to random sample from the bet of all active schedules and, thus, to produce schedules that are optimal with a probability as close to unity as is desired. The basic algorithm can also generate the particular schedules produced by well-known machine loading rules.
Acknowledgment
Authors: Churchman C. West
Published: November 2008

In connection with my article, Sampling and Persuasion, which appeared in the March–April issue of Operations Research (vol. 8, pp. 254–259, 1960), I would like to add the acknowledgement that a good deal of the research work described there was accomplished with the aid of personnel from the Finance Department of the Chesapeake and Ohio Railroad, who fully appreciated the potentiality of sampling methods.
The Contextual Study: A Structured Approach to the Study of Political and Military Aspects of Limited War
Authors: Ellis J. W. , Greene T. E.
Published: November 2008

Study of military problems in limited war by conventional techniques of systems analysis or operations analysis is hampered by the dominating effect of nonquantifiable variables, such as political factors. Such variables interact with the military factors in a complex fashion the relation is dynamic, so that political and military problems cannot be separated, and it changes continually throughout the course of a limited war. Static assumptions regarding political constraints form unreliable boundary conditions within which to consider desired military tactics or weapons characteristics. A structured analytical method termed contextual study is suggested, whereby the military and political factors of the environment of a limited war are considered simultaneously throughout a campaign or series of campaigns. Advantages and limitations of the method and distinctions between it and operational war gaming are discussed. Applications to other types of problems than limited war—problems involving close interaction among quantifiable and nonquantifiable factors—are suggested.
Letter to the Editor—The Initial Solution of the Transportation Problem
Authors: Szwarc Wyodzimierz
Published: November 2008

A method is given for finding an initial solution of the transportation problem. The proposed method, which is a modification of Vogel's approximation method, gives in the 2 × n and m × 2 cases the optimal solution.
Letter to the Editor—The Effect of Introducing Priorities
Authors: Aczel M. A.
Published: November 2008

The theory of queues has studied many types of situation of customers waiting to be served at a counter, or material waiting to be processed by a machine. It is naturally interesting to see how the order in which customers get served affects various types of queues. One way of dealing with customers is to serve them in order of arrival, another is to give precedence to customers likely to require a short service time. The former is known as ‘first-come, first-served’ discipline and the latter is a kind of ‘priority’ discipline. This paper aims to compare the two disciplines.
Time-Dependent Solution of the Bulk-Service Queuing Problem
Authors: Jaiswal N. K.
Published: November 2008

A slight modification of the existing technique used by Gaver and by Luchak to solve queuing problems with Poisson input and a wide class of service time distributions has been made to obtain time-dependent solution of the bulk-service queuing problem. Some known results have been deduced as corollaries and the advantage of introducing this modification has been pointed out.
Solution of the Akers-Friedman Scheduling Problem
Authors: Szwarc Włodzimierz
Published: November 2008

The solution of the Akers-Friedman production scheduling problem for the case of two parts and m machines (2 × m) is given. The combination of dynamic programming and graphical approaches makes the method of solution especially effective. Even for large m the solution is very quickly obtained by using the proposed method. The case n × m is discussed and a 3 × 10 example is solved.
Operations Research for the U.S. Navy Since World War II
Authors: Engel Joseph H.
Published: November 2008

One of the papers from the Symposium A Decade of Military Operations Research in Perspective, held at the Fourteenth National Meeting of the Society, in St. Louis, Missouri, October 23, 1958.
The Growth of the Operations Research Office in the U.S. Army
Authors: Whitson W. L.
Published: November 2008

One of the papers from the Symposium A Decade of Military Operations Research in Perspective, held at the Fourteenth National Meeting of the Society, in St. Louis, Missouri, October 23, 1958.
Rand—A Personal View of its History
Authors: Specht R. D.
Published: November 2008

One of the papers from the Symposium A Decade of Military Operations Research in Perspective, held at the Fourteenth National Meeting of the Society, in St. Louis, Missouri, October 23, 1958.
Operations Research for the Secretary of Defense and the Joint Chiefs of Staff
Authors: Pugh George E.
Published: November 2008

One of the papers from the Symposium A Decade of Military Operations Research in Perspective, held at the Fourteenth National Meeting of the Society, in St. Louis, Missouri, October 23, 1958.
Operational Research in the Canadian Department of National Defence
Authors: Lowe R. H.
Published: November 2008

One of the papers from the Symposium A Decade of Military Operations Research in Perspective, held at the Fourteenth National Meeting of the Society, in St. Louis, Missouri, October 23, 1958.
Concluding Remarks
Authors: Solandt O. M.
Published: November 2008

One of the papers from the Symposium A Decade of Military Operations Research in Perspective, held at the Fourteenth National Meeting of the Society, in St. Louis, Missouri, October 23, 1958.
Letter to the Editor—A Note on V. Punga's Method of Solving Linear Equations
Authors: Szwarc Włodzimierz
Published: November 2008

In this letter, a method of solving systems of linear equations is given. The method is a combination of procedures used in the original and revised simplex method (see Eisemann, K. 1955. Linear programming. Quart. Appl. Math. 13 N3, 209–232.), and requires less arithmetical operations than the method given in Punga, V. 1958. On the use of the simplified simplex tableau for the solution of systems of linear equations. Opns. Res. 6 897–898.
Optimum Distribution of Effort: An Extension of the Koopman Basic Theory
Authors: de Guenin Jacques
Published: November 2008

The fundamental problem of search theory is to allocate a given amount of search effort in such a way as to maximize the over-all probability of discovering an object located in a given space. The problem has already been solved under the assumption that the probability of detecting the object is a negative exponential function of the search effort density, this assumption seems to be fairly realistic in many military applications, but has definite drawbacks in others. In this paper a method is provided for solving the problem in the general case, where no assumption is made concerning the form of the detection probability function. A theorem is derived that gives a general relation governing the optimal solution.
Letter to the Editor—The Shortest-Route Problem—An Addendum
Authors: Pandit S. N. Narahari
Published: November 2008

A rapidly convergent method for finding the optimal routing matrix of a given network is illustrated. The optimality criterion is generalized by incorporating into it the visit costs at the various nodes.
Letter to the Editor—Replenishment Times, Service Times, and the Independence Assumption
Authors: Hadley G. , Whitin T. M.
Published: November 2008

A simple model illustrates the connection between the independence assumption, replenishment time, and queuing models for the case where orders are forced to conform to the proper temporal ordering scheme (i.e., orders do not cross) for the case of an exponential replenishment time distribution.
Car-Following and Steady-State Theory for Noncongested Traffic
Authors: Edie Leslie C.
Published: November 2008

Car-following and continuum theories have been shown by other investigators to describe a number of aspects of the complex phenomenon of vehicular traffic flow in both quantitative and qualitative terms. It is the purpose of this paper to suggest a variation in these theories in an effort to make them more accurate for traffic densities less than optimum. The theory as modified for noncongested traffic may help to describe quantitatively the sudden change of state occurring in a traffic stream going from a relatively free-flowing condition to a crawling stop-and-go condition and back again.
The Created Response Surface Technique for Optimizing Nonlinear, Restrained Systems
Authors: Carroll Charles W.
Published: November 2008

A different approach to the general problem of optimization of nonlinear, restrained systems is presented. This approach, called the Created Response Surface Technique, is based, essentially, on steepest ascents up a succession of created response surfaces within the solution space. The most important characteristic of the approach is that it automatically avoids restraint boundary violations during the optimization. This article discusses application to fully developed steady-state mathematical models. By the use of appropriate experimental designs, the method could be used for the characterization and optimization of mathematically incomplete, nonlinear, restrained systems. In addition, it seems possible that the Created Response Surface concept could be applied to attain dynamic process control in certain nonlinear, restrained control situations. However, the mathematical implications of the new approach must be studied further.
Operations Research in National Planning of Underdeveloped Countries
Authors: Hanssmann Fred
Published: November 2008

The problem of allocation of resources in development planning is treated in the form of a project-selection problem. The main features of the approach are (a) It provides for technological feasibility of the development program and satisfies the demand for final consumption (at given prices) at all points of time. (b) It yields a number of alternative programs that demonstrate the possible compromises between conflicting objectives of national planning Only “efficient” compromises are given. Thus, the decision-maker is furnished with the best possible basis for selection of a final compromise. (c) In selecting projects at a given point of time, it takes account of future opportunities for resource allocation.
Symposium on Military Operations Research
Authors: Leibowitz Martin L.
Published: November 2008

The following three papers were prepared for the Session on Military Operations Research at the Seventeenth National Meeting of the Operations Research Society of America in New York on May 20, 1960.
Trends in Military Operations Research
Authors: Meals Donald W.
Published: November 2008

Military operations research in its early years is contrasted with a description of its present status. Changes in the types of problems attacked, the availability of data, tested techniques, and supporting theory are described as influencing the impact of military operations research on policy. Increasing emphasis on operational gaming is seen both as an expression of inadequacy in dealing with contemporary problems and as a reflection of the promise offered by this technique for an improved military operations-research capability.
Selecting Weapons Systems 1960—The Builder's-Eye View
Authors: Osborn Palmer
Published: November 2008

Caught by converging budgetary and technical constraints, weapons systems builders have discovered they cannot afford to pursue so many of the technically attractive potential new systems. They must ascertain which of these potential new systems will, in fact, evolve into operational systems. To do this, they have espoused operations-research methods and set about trying to select the potential systems which will meet three key conditions, that is systems which will answer a valid mission requirement and be economically and technically feasible, all in the future operational frame of reference. From experience gained in this selection process so far, the builders find that operations research needs to develop in certain directions if it is to meet their requirements. Looking ahead from this standpoint, it appears that the representative product of operations research increasingly may be the “white paper” on a broad issue, the general description of a broad problem such as ground warfare, the analysis of a broad concept or objective such as deterrence Interpretation will be emphasized at the expense of technical razzle dazzle. Significant negative findings will be disclosed more conscientiously.
Queuing with Multiple Poisson Inputs and Exponential Service Times
Authors: Ancker C. J. , Gafarian A. V.
Published: November 2008

This paper contains an analysis of a single-server queuing system for m different types of customers having independent Poisson arrivals with rates λı, ı = 1, …, m and exponential service times with rates μı, ı = 1, …, m. The discipline is first-come, first-served. Some derived results are (a) a recursion relation for the steady-state probability of n in queue, (b) a recursion relation for the steady-state probability that some member of a particular class is in service and that n of any class are in queue, and (c) the characteristic equation for the waiting-time distribution and its general inversion for the two-population case. The recursion relations are simple for computational purposes.
A Measure of Effectiveness for a Barrier Type of Surface-to-Air Defense
Authors: Blum Ronald
Published: November 2008

Two criteria, effectiveness and uncertainty, for a surface-to-air missile defense against enemy air attack are defined and examined. It is shown how they may serve as criteria for choice of defensive deployments of a limited number of batteries in a limited region.
Comments on the Preceding Paper
Authors: Millstein Herbert S.
Published: November 2008

At the outset, we might comment that while Captain Healy's remarks (Healy, T. L. 1961. Activity subdivision and PERT probability statements. Oper. Res. 9 341–348.) are valid from a theoretical viewpoint, there are practical operating considerations that were not discussed in the article that have a profound bearing on the problem. Therefore, the following comments will enumerate the practical operating considerations to be associated with the problem in order to achieve a real-world applications in the use of probability estimates for management decision making.
Dispersal, Deterrence, and Damage
Authors: Schelling T. C.
Published: November 2008

Dispersal of alert bombers to large-city airfields has been proposed as a way of improving deterrence by increasing the targets that an enemy first strike would have to destroy, without the cost of constructing new bases. It does, however, make urgent targets out of population centers that might otherwise not be attacked. The improvement in deterrence has to be weighted against the greater damage the enemy would be required to inflict in the event he otherwise could not afford, or would not choose, to hit cities. This choice cannot be made without giving quantitative weights to alternative outcomes of war, and evaluating alternative probabilities of successful deterrence. The underlying strategic issue is whether general war, if it occurs, necessarily has to be unlimited, indiscriminate, and exhaustive.
Empirical Design of Priority Waiting Times for Jobbing Shop Control
Authors: Sandeman P.
Published: November 2008

In many jobbing shops there exist a number of methods of increasing the capacity of machine groups. The extent of the capacity change required depends on the effect that such a change will have on the time jobs take to pass through the shop, in much the same way that the allocation of priorities both determines and is determined by the resulting waiting times. A case is put for the need to integrate these two aspects of control, and the results given of a simplified example of such control on waiting times in a single server, pre-emptive priority queue, obtained by manual sampling methods.
Decision on Retention of Excess Stock
Authors: Mohan C. , Garg R. C.
Published: November 2008

Simpson derived a formula for making decisions on the retention of excess stock having a constant probability of obsolescence and deterioration. The general problem of determining an economic retention period for excess stocks, when the shelf-life of the material follows some general probability distribution, is considered in this paper. A particular case in which the shelf-life follows the exponential distribution is derived. It is indicated that the relevant equation can be solved by a trial-and-error method even for the most general case with the help of truncated distribution of shelf-life.