bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Beyond alternative officing: Infrastructure on‐demand
Authors: Becker Franklin
Published: June 2007

Over the last ten years interest in and implementation of different forms of alternative officing (AO) have increased dramatically. AO has, in fact, become simply another tool in the real estate and FM space planning and design toolkit. This paper briefly describes different types of AO, and then suggests that AO, which has primarily responded to corporate drives to reduce costs, should broaden its focus to explore alternative ways of constructing and procuring space in response to a different organisational change: namely, to be able to occupy space on‐demand. The article describes the concept of a lean portfolio that helps organisations manage uncertainty better through infrastructure on‐demand; and proposes a research agenda for systematically examining different alternative workplace strategies (AWS).
The working environment: Catalyst or constraint?
Authors: Bradley Stephen , Osborne Peter
Published: June 2007

Many organisations have increased collaborative performance by introducing new technologies and new processes; by integrating these with innovations in the working environment they can catalyse additional and sustained improvements in collaborative performance. If planned, designed and managed as an integrated system encompassing people, process and place issues, the workplace environment can be a powerful catalyst for business change.
Your deal‐making expertise ‐ Don’t leave home without it
Authors: Carty Peter F.
Published: June 2007

Even the most experienced and hardened negotiators tend to ‘lighten up’ when they step onto foreign soil. Current global conditions, however, allow for a systematic, diligent and professional approach to lease and purchase negotiations. This paper encourages corporate real estate professionals to do the right thing ‐ wherever they may be.
Rules of lease auditing and dispute resolution
Authors: Di Sciullo Alan M.
Published: June 2007

This paper gives an overview of a very topical and specialised area in commercial leasing and also generally presents methods in which a corporate tenant or user may bring an action (or the theories of such an action) against its landlord. The paper first tells the reader what a lease audit is and what it is intended to achieve. Then the piece attempts to give a number of possible ways in which a corporate user could assert its rights against a landlord in order to recover monies that may be owed to the tenant under a miscalculated or erroneous rent clause. The paper also discusses the pitfalls that a tenant may face in trying to conduct a lease audit and successfully bring a legal action to recover monies for which the tenant has been allegedly overbilled or overcharged.
Corporate real estate in Poland
Authors: Shone Steven , Roth Michael
Published: June 2007

The authors summarise developments in Polish real estate markets in the post‐Communist era,
commenting on the lack of professional infrastructure to support corporations opening or expanding their businesses in the country. They explain the artificial restrictions on supply and the lack of uniform standards in the early stages of the market. These issues are illustrated by a case study in relation to office premises in Warsaw.
Corporate investment and ownership in real estate in Singapore: Some empirical evidence
Authors: Kim Hiang Liow
Published: June 2007

The proportion of real estate in a non‐property company’s asset portfolio has increased to an
extent where it has become an asset capable of enhancing corporate wealth. This initial study hopes to establish the foundation and provide background information on corporate real estate holding profiles of listed Singapore business
firms. Using financial statement data and firm market values from 1987 to 1996, this paper provides an analysis of real estate holdings in both absolute and relative terms. Real estate holdings by business segment and asset subtype,
growth in corporate real estate holdings over time; and key financial characteristics of corporate real estate (eg real estate as a percentage of shareholders’ equity and real estate relative to market value of the firm) are included in the paper.
Eight steps to a strategic plan for corporate real estate and possible portfolio exit strategies
Authors: Buckley Michael P.
Published: June 2007

Corporations face new imperatives to reduce occupancy costs for both investment and corporate properties and to eliminate redundancies in their holdings. After mergers or acquisitions pressure to ‘rationalise’ the corporate portfolio are even more intense. This paper will explore an Eight Step Strategic Plan to evaluate alternative structures for corporate assets which are no longer contributing to return on equity or which may be considered surplus. It will also recommend a Special Purpose Vehicle to move assets off the corporate balance sheet.
Achieving competitive advantage in the Mexican footwear industry
Authors: Ojeda‐Gomez Julieta , Simpson Mike , Lenny Koh S.C. , Padmore Jo
Published: June 2007

Purpose

To provide a systemic view of competitive advantage in small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs). Gaining a competitive advantage involves a process that evolves over time and which considers the role of three factors: the entrepreneur, the firm's resources and capabilities and the supporting institutions.

Design/methodology/approach

The case study method was selected as an exploratory research method. Many of the findings were based on secondary data while results were confirmed or complemented to some extent by primary data. Primary data were collected via an electronic questionnaire and semi‐structured telephone interviews with SMEs' owners in the Mexican footwear industry.

Findings

Changes in the business environment may transform the grounds on which SMEs conduct their business. Consequently, adaptation, new relationships and creativity may emerge as a way to overcome scarcity of resources and/or difficulties in gaining access to resources that contribute to their competitive advantage.

Research limitations/implications

The results present only a preliminary picture limited to the period 1985‐1999. Furthermore, most findings from the primary data refer to responses provided by medium‐sized enterprises so the position of small enterprises may need to be revised.

Originality/value

Findings may pose interesting implications for entrepreneurs, policymakers and supporting institutions, for the way in which they work together and the impact this may have on SMEs' competitive advantage.
How to be rigorous with scenario planning
Authors: Godet Michel
Published: June 2007

In a recent issue of Futuribles, authors from the European Commission’s Forward Studies Unit outlined five scenarios for Europe 2010. The scenarios were constructed using the so‐called “shaping actors, shaping factors” method, claimed by the authors as specific to their unit. In this article, Michel Godet reacts to that claim and makes two fundamental criticisms of their methodology.
Durkheim among the geneticists? human genetics, ethics and methods in futures studies
Authors: 6 Perri
Published: June 2007

It is widely claimed that new developments in human genetics will be instrumental in shaping life over the next century. But how, exactly, might these technologies affect developed societies? Do technologies themselves shape society or are technologies such as genetic testing and engineering themselves shaped by social structures? This article looks at the need for futurists to consider the ethical dimensions of human genetics and critically reviews the bodies of thought in this area.
The e‐factor: towards a theory of electronic capitalism
Authors: Forge Simon
Published: June 2007

Are we now entering the era of a new type of economy, with new rules? What we perceive is more than just an addition to today’s economics. By removing the effects of distance, and giving more equal access across nations and classes, networks will effectively reengineer our basic economic equations. Electronic networks can provide access to skills, work and commerce at much lower cost, via electronic markets in jobs, products, services and education. At the same time, they introduce new economic behaviour, as a large enough quantitative change becomes a qualitative change. Electronics and optics enable the networking of human capital, expanding its application and accelerating its enrichment via education. So knowledge‐based operations may slowly replace traditional capital‐based assets. Consequently, the conventional process for the creation of wealth with its prerequisites for capital investment is revised:economic value in traditional fixed assets is replaced by “electronic assets”. At the same time, the network effect pushes the market mechanism to its limits, through a step‐change in breadth of access, reduced costs of entry and pace of trading. National differences and national markets, all the trappings and devices of commercial locality, are challenged. In this first of two articles, the initial conditions and the evidence for change are examined and the emergence of a new form of economy, or “tele‐economy”, is reviewed. Following from this, a view of the form of capitalism driving the economic environment – “electronic capitalism” – is put forward. The second article, to be published in a forthcoming issue of foresight, examines the consequences and conclusions on assets, wealth accumulation, national players and the benefits and dangers of a tele‐economy.
Geese, tigers and dragons: convergence and integration of east Asian economies
Authors: Kangmao Wang , Chun Hu
Published: June 2007

This paper identifies the new economic force regenerating the East Asian economies in the post‐crisis era. Based on the convergence of five main economic indexes, it reclassifies the ten East Asian entities into four tiers, and highlights the language similarities among the tiers. It also discusses the inter‐ and intra‐regional economic dynamics, and the implications on further regional trade/investment, financial cooperation and monetary integration, such as a possible unifying Asian currency.
Towards the creative society: 21st century social dynamics
Authors: Michalski Wolfgang , Miller Riel , Stevens Barrie
Published: June 2007

The prospects for prosperity and well‐being in the 21st century will depend on leveraging social diversity to encourage technological, economic and social dynamism. A striking confluence of forces over the next twenty years could drive a twofold convergence: first, towards more highly differentiated and complex societies, and second, towards the adoption of a common set of general policy goals that are conducive to both diversity and social sustainability. In the opening decades of the 21st century four simultaneous and powerful societal transformations will give rise to more variety and interdependence: from the uniformity and obedience of the mass‐era to the uniqueness and creativity of a knowledge economy and society; from rigid and isolated command planning to flexible, open and rule‐based markets; from predominantly agricultural structures to industrial urbanization; and lastly, from a relatively fragmented world of autonomous societies and regions to the dense and indispensable interdependencies of an integrated planet. In different ways and in different parts of the world, greater social complexity will in all likelihood accompany these wrenching shifts. Rather than fear this increase in social diversity we should welcome the opportunities for learning and sharing that could bring prosperity and well‐being. Nevertheless, there are risks of heightened conflict due to the possible polarization that frequently accompanies the passing of old social orders and the emergence of new ones. Policy choices will be the determining factor in minimizing this friction and encouraging the potential synergies.
Revitalizing the United Nations: anticipation and prevention as primary goals
Authors: Novosseloff Alexandra
Published: June 2007

In tackling the on‐going topic of UN reform, one should be honest with the analysis of the problems at stake. It is necessary to first take into account the profound changes that have occurred since the end of the Cold War, as well as acknowledging the limits of an international organization and the shape of the UN system. It is only from that analysis that proposals can be made to rationalize and to make more efficient the functioning of the United Nations. What the organization needs is not only a rationalization, it primarily needs a vision that gives it purpose and meaning. This article proposes that its primary goals should be anticipation and prevention – it should be the advanced guard and the conscience of the world. In this context, the United Nations is an indispensable and priceless instrument in international relations.
Democracy beyond the information age: 21st century political communication
Authors: Daryl Slaton Christa , Becker Ted
Published: June 2007

This article asserts that modern representative democracy was never intended nor designed to function as a democracy and that progress in the past two hundred years has come from the persistence of citizens operating outside established hierarchical power structures. A transformation of modern representative democracy is underway and information and communication technology (ICT) is a key component in the evolution of more participatory democratic governments. The failings of modern representative democracy are highlighted by the decline in voting turnout rates and a high level of dissatisfaction with and distrust of elected political leaders. While advances in technology and the expansion and availability of information can hinder and harm efforts to advance democracy, this article seeks to balance the discourse by emphasizing the potentials and benefits and by seeking solutions to problems in the representative systems. This is approached through the examination of four areas of enormous innovation and experimentation in utilizing ICT to develop new forms of greater citizen participation within representative democracy and for creating more effective direct democracy: voting from home, scientific deliberative polling, electronic town meetings and direct democracy activities. The main conclusion is that ICT has aided forces that favour a stronger infuence by citizens in representative government which is already in the process of being transformed as nations move towards the global economy and citizens insist on more self‐governance.
Technology driving change: scenarios for Europe in a global information society
Authors: Pestel Robert , Johnston Peter
Published: June 2007

This article outlines European ICT development scenarios to 2010, presents scenarios for the adoption of these technologies and network services and identifies scenarios for associated economic and social change pertaining to accelerated globalization through e‐commerce; the increased dominance of immaterial information services contributing to greater sustainability of development; and the enormous increase in diversity of the geocultural characteristics of services available anywhere in the world. The main assumption is that the ICT revolution is the key driver of globalization and dematerialization of economic activity: the shift to higher added value in immaterial services and in the information content of manufactured products.
Knowledge and wisdom in the information society
Authors: Pantzar Eero
Published: June 2007

Regarding the information society’s outcome, the only certainty is that there has been a revolution in the management of bit‐split knowledge and information. A flood of information has not significantly changed society in a direction or towards a state where a community could be characterized as a society of nearness, experience or citizenship, for example. Information and knowledge are probably the very concepts that have been confused most in the information society debate. Knowledge is to be understood as a phenomenon that is larger than information but uses information as its building material. Wisdom is additionally considered to include and cover the questions for which there are no unambiguous answers. It is wisdom that people use to estimate and distinguish good from evil and right from wrong. This is a task that calls for wisdom which computers do not have. Potential growth of wisdom in the information society is an issue that is difficult or impossible to say anything about with certainty. The reality of an information society includes the fact that wisdom is connected to moral and ethical judgements, and that the solutions are not always stronger than the powerseeking choices or egoistic interests of individuals, businesses, communities or states. Even if wisdom should promote the common good, it seems to be used, to an equal degree, to exclusively promote the good of the wise individual. But is it still wisdom we are talking about?
Knowledge and information in futurology
Authors: Malaska Pentti
Published: June 2007

An account is given of futures research as a scientifically oriented field of knowledge. Its specific contemporary task as a study of transient change of the human society is described and the futures research approach is outlined. A generalization of the concept of knowledge of the standard sciences is presented as a sine qua non to futurology. The relationship between knowledge and information is elaborated and clarified, which makes it possible to better understand the present era as an information age.
The contours of the network society
Authors: Castells Manuel
Published: June 2007

This article identifies contemporary society as a network society made possible by new information and communication technologies which are both a necessary condition for, and inextractable dimension of that society, and pose complex results and challenges. The prevalence of networks means that we have entered a new technological paradigm and new form of organizational structure having shifted from vertical to more flexible and adaptable networking forms of activity in economy, society, politics and culture. Historical problems of networks are overcome by the new network technologies. In the network society, the integration of the core of global financial activities works through causal interactions and the ability to assess and change the value of any security in the global market. This is only made possible via telecommunications and powerful information systems which assess risks and provide alternatives. Characteristics and consequences of the new economy are outlined as are patterns of governmental power. Current processes of globalization have diminished the capacity of the nation state to control the processes of cultural, economic, political and social dimensions and the network state is emerging in a world of different kinds of networks of which governmental networks is one. The main conclusion is that the network society of the contemporary, or post‐industrial, age is centrally organized around new information communication technologies which have enabled, rather than technologically determined, extraordinary changes in the social structure.
The transformation of time in the information society
Authors: Kamppinen Matti
Published: June 2007

This article assesses the extent to which social transformations involve changes in their socially constructed temporal profiles and draws distinctions between cyclical, linear, absolute and relative conceptions of time. It could be predicted that, in the information society, with the appropriation of information technology, our conceptions of time will again be radically transformed. However, the article refutes the claim that in the information society we are moving into timeless time where being online and real time are ideals everyone strives for, where modern computer‐based wars are fought in instants and where individual life projects have lost their temporal order. Instead, it concludes that time is transformed in the information society but not radically, and that our lives and related processes are temporally ordered even though the processes are speeded up and reshuffled thanks to the information technology and the production of goods and services it has enabled.
The debate over genetically modified organisms: scientific uncertainty and public controversy
Authors: Hadfield Linda
Published: June 2007

The controversy over genetically modified organisms in the UK came to a head with the publication of three official reports in May 1999. A review of the three reports leads to the suggestion that the controversy is exacerbated in part by the conflation of three sets of issues: the underlying uncertainty of the physical processes involved, the nature of scientific investigation and the social context surrounding scientific research. This has implications for the nature of scientific research, and the relationship between research and policy.
The cyborg, the ideology chip and the guru programme: the implications of cyborg technologies for the development of human consciousness
Authors: Laughlin Charles D.
Published: June 2007

There has been little thought given in science to the impact of direct brain‐machine interfacing upon the future development of human consciousness. Even less thought has been given to the possibilities for both optimizing and thwarting development in the cyborg child. A neurocognitive model of the evolution of cyborg consciousness is summarized, and from this model grounded speculations are offered pertaining to the future development of the higher cognitive functions in the cyborg child. It will be shown that cybernetic implants are “multistable”; that is, the artificial intelligence (AI) component of the cyborg brain‐machine linkage may function to condition development along ideological lines (the brain conditioned by the “ideological chip”), or may operate to open up neurocognitive development to new and heretofore unrealized limits (the brain’s development optimized by the “guru programme”). Development of the cyborg child may be conditioned in the interests of ideological concerns, or may lead to a consciousness that easily transcends all forms of ideology. Application of the guru programme may foster the emergence of new levels of cognitive complexity and information processing (à la Piagetian and neo‐Piagetian theory) that in turn allows new strategies of adaptation previously beyond human comprehension. The ethical and regulatory problems raised by cyborg technologies are addressed.
Emerging economic sectors in the third millennium: introduction and overview of the “big five”
Authors: Molitor Graham T.T.
Published: June 2007

This introductory article, the first in a series of six, will describe the impending waves of economic activity projected to dominate the advanced economies over the course of the new millennium. Successive economic shifts suggest how investment opportunities and dead‐ends, new growth sectors and declining ones, jobs and livelihoods, and the overall socioeconomic scaffolding of advanced nations will change in the centuries to come. This coverage will shed light on the changing landscape of economic developments, indicate a sense of timing and importance, and provide perspectives on new potentialities.
The future of oil and energy: consequences for oil producing countries
Authors: Bracho Frank
Published: June 2007

Conventional wisdom in the oil world is that the issue in the future will not be a lack of demand but a scarcity of oil. But this view is challenged by less conventional trends that allow us to propose an alternative scenario in which demand for oil in the near future falls dramatically with the development of new or alternative sources of energy capable of taking over the hegemonic role played by oil. The article examines the environmental, technological, corporate and economic, and political factors which support this alternative scenario. This analysis is used to consider the implications for OPEC and especially Venezuela of a shift away from oil to alternative sources of energy. The Second OPEC Summit in Caracas in September 2000 provides an opportunity for OPEC to look to the future, to focus on the transition to a new energy paradigm and consider its consequences for oil producing countries.
Policy futures for UK health
Authors: Dargie Charlotte
Published: June 2007

This article reports on a research project, established to explore future trends and issues in population health and health care in the UK forward to 2015. The aim of the project is to explore how futures thinking can aid policy development in the health sector. The methods adopted in the study are outlined and initial findings are reported. The project, which has already produced several papers, published its policy report, Policy Futures for UK Health: 2000 Report in May.
Knowledge translation: a new perspective on knowledge transfer and foresight
Authors: Major Edward , Cordey‐Hayes Martyn
Published: June 2007

This article builds on existing concepts and models of knowledge transfer, presenting a conceptual framework of an integrated knowledge transfer process. It introduces the notion of knowledge translation to describe the key elements within the overall process. The new perspective provided by this knowledge translation framework has implications for the foresight process, for the UK Foresight programme and foresight policy makers and for the intermediary role of the business support community.
Tips and pitfalls of the futures studies trade
Authors: Inayatullah Sohail
Published: June 2007

This essay outlines some of the crucial points to be taken into consideration by futurists‐in‐training in order to avoid the many mistakes which can be easily made. These comprise right timing, real participation, scenarios, developing a preferred vision of the future, using metaphors, using mixed approaches, depth, the surprise future and implementation. The role of the futurist is long term pedagogy, finding solutions for current problems by challenging administrative structures and asking individuals to rethink how and why they do certain things. The reality of practice and idealism of vision is what will create an alternative future.
The price of oil in a world of equals
Authors: Chávez Frías Hugo
Published: June 2007

Whether the price of oil is too high or too low depends on the point of reference being used. The industrialized countries want oil producing countries to think that the price is high, but today it is lower in real terms than it was 20 or 30 years ago. Meanwhile we cannot afford to overlook the reality that inequalities between the richest and poorest nations are deepening and the fact that the poorest people in the world are struggling for survival. In considering our future path, we need to fight for a world of equals. That means being tolerant of the views and beliefs of others, for example in differing concepts of democracy. At the same time it means accepting responsibility for problems which face everyone, for instance concerning the environment.
Connected economy – disjointed society
Authors: Goyder Mark
Published: June 2007

In this article an airing is given to some of the recent, very pessimistic, critiques of global capitalism considered to be synonymous with monoculture and dispossession, before setting against these a much more hopeful view of global capitalism which comes from business itself – an agent of social progress. Finally, some synthesis of the two is attempted, and suggestions are made as to where the opportunities may lie for progress: the rise of the NGO, democratising technology, new pressures on governance and reporting, and new opportunities for innovation in investment.
Governance in the 21st century: power in the global knowledge economy and society
Authors: michalski Wolfgang , Miller Riel , Stevens Barrie
Published: June 2007

At the outset of the 21st century, confidence in the effectiveness and legitimacy of established forms of governance is ebbing. This article considers historical developments in governance, the driving forces likely to transform governance worldwide and the policies that might have the best chance of enhancing governance capacities in line with the desires and needs of the future. Challenges and propects are discussed which entail the dual policy of: encouraging a virtuous circle between governance and technological, economic and social dynamism; and targeting improvements in learning infrastructure, the frameworks for establishing confidence, and the standards (mission/values) within which society functions. By improving the capacity to make and implement decisions throughout society these policies are likely to provide one of the main stepping stones to the realization of people’s aspirations in the 21st century.
Towards the break‐up of money: when reality – driven by information technology – overtakes Simmel’s vision
Authors: Dembinski Paul H. , Perritaz Christophe
Published: June 2007

Georg Simmel reached the conclusion that evolution drives money towards an ever‐higher level of functionality while, at the same time reducing its importance as a substance. This article confronts Simmel’s one hundred‐year‐old hypothesis with the changes money has undergone since the publication of his book, The Philosophy of Money, since the 1970s. We begin by presenting the main conclusions of Simmel’s inquiry into the essence of money. We focus on his findings concerning the unstable relationship between the substance and functions of money and on the notion of money as a social institution. The second part of the article relates Simmel’s analysis to various aspects of contemporary thinking on money, and presents the “double anchor” hypothesis on the monetary order. Then, this hypothesis is used to analyse how technology‐driven processes are causing specific monetary functions to become increasingly autonomous. What this implies, in turn, is the de facto break‐up of money. For the time being, this situation has not actually arisen, but the stage‐by‐stage break‐up of money is well under way, at various speeds, and taking advantage of any available technical opportunities, especially in the field of information technology. The expected total break‐up of money poses compelling problems that call for new conceptual, technical and institutional solutions.
Emerging economic sectors in the third millennium: life sciences to dominate US economy by 2100
Authors: Molitor Graham T.T.
Published: June 2007

This article, third in a series of six, describes Life Sciences Era activities. Life sciences, rapidly gaining momentum, will begin to dominate US economic activity by 2100, then predominate well into the following century (see Figure 1). Massive advances will follow as the 140 000 genes, and 3 billion molecular units (base pairs) comprising the human genome are plotted in rough draft before 2001, and definitively charted by 2003. Once laid out, comprehending genetic patterns provides the means to govern many of the 75 trillion parts in every human.
Education: new economy, new challenges?
Authors: Love Patrick
Published: June 2007

The boom in online products and services is radically changing many aspects of both the economy and everyday life, and will increasingly affect individuals’ learning needs. This article examines how education systems see their role in the “new economy”, and the means by which they can prepare students for the new tasks, challenges and opportunities they will encounter, while still having to cope with the constraints and contradictions affecting how they operate today.
Understanding urban futures: between science and science fiction
Authors: Marvin Simon
Published: June 2007

Over the last five years, governments, think‐tanks and public alike have re‐focused their minds on the future development of British cities. Why are such diverse social organizations producing visions of urban futures? What kinds of techniques and tools are they using, and what are their implications? What types of city do they envision? And most significantly, what are the resonances and dissonances between the development paths they propose?
Enlarging Europe through science and education
Authors: Langer Jerzy M.
Published: June 2007

With the fall of the Berlin Wall, the enlargement of the European Union (EU) by countries from the former Central and Eastern Europe became possible. Science and education are among the best assets of the accession countries, but the unfettered free market represents an increasing threat to their intellectual capital. Science and education have long been instruments of international cooperation. Now they have a vital role to play in leading Europe towards a new age of enlightenment.
Macau – the new digital bridgehead
Authors: Carneiro Roberto , Conceiçã Pedro , Viana Fernandes Artur
Published: June 2007

For countries and regions all over the world, the Digital Economy brings threats as well as opportunities, fast timeframes and narrow windows of opportunity. Nowhere are these factors more concentrated than in Macau, whose independence comes in the aftermath of regional economic turmoil and the accession of China to the WTO. Small in size and economically dependent on its mighty neighbours, Macau must diversify if it is to survive. The Digital Economy is its chance to recapture the role of intermediary between East and West. This study of the territory’s digital landscape and infrastructure yields an integrated set of policies and actions that could help create a sustainable digital cluster in Macau.
Marching to the same beat: defence and the future of Europe
Authors: Richardson Jacques G.
Published: June 2007

Moves to create a single European defence force come as the region embarks on a new phase of enlargement. So does this represent the ultimate challenge for federalism? And if so, could it kick‐start cooperation in other areas of mutual protection such as food safety and the environment?
Emerging economic sectors in the third millennium: a pit stop on the path to cleaner energy
Authors: Molitor Graham T.T.
Published: June 2007

Thermonuclear fusion is on the way, and beyond it the promise of limitless power derived from hydrogen in water and air. The challenge for the next few years will be to eke out our fossil fuels, and the most plentiful by far is coal. So how to reform a fuel that has long been considered the most environmentally unfriendly of them all?
More evolution than revolution: transition management in public policy
Authors: Rotmans Jan , Kemp René , van Asselt Marjolein
Published: June 2007

Transitions are transformation processes in which society changes in a fundamental way over a generation or more. Although the goals of a transition are ultimately chosen by society, governments can play a role in bringing about structural change in a stepwise manner. Their management involves sensitivity to existing dynamics and regular adjustment of goals to overcome the conflict between long‐term ambition and short‐term concerns. This article uses the example of a transition to a low emission energy supply in the Netherlands to argue that transition management provides a basis for coherence and consistency in public policy and can be the spur to sustainable development.
E‐government: developing state communications in a free media environment
Authors: Galbi Douglas A.
Published: June 2007

If governments are really to stimulate the information society, they must lead from the front. That means redesigning government communications from the ground up, in ways that engage citizens and encourage e‐commerce. Local portals could pave the way, but first they must win over Web users from other communications channels. That means attracting the best content – and one way for governments to do that is to set a standard in pricing and marketing their own data.
Environmental citizenship: Europe’s new policy challenge
Authors: Johnston Peter
Published: June 2007

We have a joint responsibility around the world to act together to achieve sustainable global development. But while the information society can offer environmentally friendly lifestyles such as teleworking, it is also bringing a much larger proportion of the world population into the consumer economy. So as developing countries join the West in its polluting ways, how can we safeguard the principle of sustainability? The answers may lie in making more efficient use of existing resources, extending the concept of tradable emissions rights from governments to individual citizens, and extolling the virtues of “intergenerational solidarity”.
Pulse of the planet: leadership models in the gloval village
Authors: Burke Robert
Published: June 2007

Global government is on the rise, and with it a devolution of power to the grassroots. Subjugating nature is out of fashion and ecological living is the new imperative. The next generation of leaders will emerge not from the political class but from ordinary communities, bringing with them new modes of learning and new definitions of intelligence.
Towards a federal future?
Authors: Olson Robert
Published: June 2007

On 14 December 2000, the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, the US Environmental Protection Agency and the Institute for Alternative Futures cosponsored a roundtable meeting to discuss how federal agencies use scenarios and other futures analysis methods to achieve a long‐range perspective. Futures practitioners representing five federal agencies participated in the roundtable, which it is hoped will pave the way for a new Federal Futures Network.
Dovetailing peace: technological convergence in the defence and aerospace industries
Authors: Molas‐Gallart Jordi
Published: June 2007

Military technology is traditionally shrouded in secrecy. Even joint research between allies can be a marriage of convenience. But with the end of the Cold War and greater European integration, the technological landscape is changing, and a closer interface is emerging between military and civilian technologies. A worldwide stagnation in defence spending is accelerating the take‐up of commercial off‐the‐shelf technologies, while in the aerospace sector, the factors of safety and the environment are becoming at least as important as cost.
Selling sustainability: green research for a global market
Authors: eder Peter
Published: June 2007

Now that energy efficiency is becoming a global imperative, Europe is finding new export markets for its energy technologies, which are as advanced as they are diverse. It’s a good example of public and private agendas in step – tough environmental controls by EU member states breeding a leaner, greener energy industry. The next challenge for the politicians is to integrate research and development with socio‐economic sustainability – a subject that is at the heart of a number of recent national foresight studies.
Angels on a pinhead: new research networks for nanotechnology
Authors: Bachmann Gerd , Holtmannspötter Dirk , Korte Sabine , Zweck Axel
Published: June 2007

Nanotechnology promises to be the defining science of the 21st century. With its integration of the organic and inorganic worlds, it represents more than simply a continuation of the principles of microtechnology. Because of this it requires new structures of R&D management, and new communication processes. A number of recent foresight studies identify potential future applications for European industry and point to the strengths and weaknesses of Member States. But only new interdisciplinary research networks will enable Europe to harness the power of nanotechnology – or prepare its citizens for the benefits.
Innovation challenges for European agriculture
Authors: de Wilt J.G. , Diederen P.J.M. , Butter M. , Tukker A.
Published: June 2007

With rising public concern over animal welfare, food safety and GM crops, Europe’s farmers, breeders and food processors are caught in the eye of a storm. While some are “returning to the soil” with traditional organic methods, others are breeding crops and animals using biotechnology, for markets as diverse as power generation and pharmaceuticals. For Europe’s policymakers social and ecological sustainability are paramount, but public information is also a prerequisite for meaningful debate.
Challenges and priorities for European research: a foresight review
Authors: Gavigan James , Zappacosta Mario , Ducatel Ken , Scapolo Fabiana , di Pietrogiacomo Paola
Published: June 2007

A review of recent foresight exercises reveals some important drivers of research in Europe. In this editorial, we introduce five main areas where science and technology will be required to deliver tangible gains for society and the economy in the coming years. It is no longer enough for research agendas to be dictated by the supply of expertise from the science base. Increasingly, they must respond to social values like access and sustainability, and humanize the interface between technology and people.
Humanizing the future: managing change with soft technology
Authors: Durand Thomas , Dubreuil Marie
Published: June 2007

Technology has always inspired social change, but its scale and complexity have begun to bewilder even the politicians and policymakers. Several recent national foresight studies point to a need for socio‐organizational or “soft” technologies to help Europe manage change and respond to major new economic opportunities. Research is required in fields such as neuro‐linguistic programming, the psychology of knowledge management and the ergonomics of the man‐machine interface. “Electronic pets” showed that we can learn to love machines – now the challenge is to embed technology in such a way as to marry science with society.
Which way to a healthy future? reflections on the Madingley Scenarios
Authors: Ling Tom
Published: June 2007

In the summer of 1998 the National Health Service (NHS) Confederation in the UK used the opportunity provided by the celebrations marking the 50th anniversary of the NHS to engage in an exercise designed to stimulate thinking about the future of health services in Britain. A key part of this involved the creation of two possible future environments of the NHS. These became known as “the Madingley Scenarios”. In this article, the context of this work is briefly outlined before describing the main drivers that are shaping this environment (technology and information, new power structures, the changing relat ion ship with the living environment, and the effect of social and cultural change). The scenarios themselves are then outlined followed by some reflections on the value of this work in healthcare and beyond.
The Internet and global cultural transformation
Authors: Madu Christian N. , Jacob Rudolph A.
Published: June 2007

In this article, we discuss the role of the internet in cultural changes and transformation. The traditional view is that inherent cultures affect business operations so corporations must be cognizant of the prevalent cultures in their operating environments. Frequently, failures of multinational corporations in new environments are often blamed on corporate lack of knowledge and understanding of these prevalent cultures. While this may still be true in today’s environment, the influence of technology, particularly the internet in the 21st century, has been so significant that the world may be approaching a “unification of cultures”. Thus, this paper argues that the internet will lead to a global cultural transformation that will enhance global business operations by removing cultural barriers that lead to sub‐optimal business operations.
Why the future is Fortean
Authors: Miles Ian
Published: June 2007

The future is often portrayed as rational, logical, and informed by the continuing achievements of the scientific and technological revolution. In similar ways, our own time was seen as marked by such advances by futurists of earlier decades. But at the end of the twentieth century, resistance to the claims of mainstream science and technology has grown to an extent unanticipated in these earlier appraisals. This essay argues that such resistance is liable to flourish in the twenty‐first century, and that understanding why this should be the case is important for studies of the future. In particular, this essay takes up the Fortean approach. This approach examines areas of human experience that are “damned” by mainstream science, and also examines the processes and strategies adopted both by those effecting the damnation, and those challenging it. The case being made is that although we can expect many of these damned phenomena to remain excluded – deservedly so in some cases – this will not always be the case.
A simple guide to successful foresight
Authors: Horton Averil
Published: June 2007

The term “foresight” is often misunderstood and is used to indicate a variety of programmes, exercises, studies and techniques for looking at the future. There have been several national foresight programmes in recent years (including the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, the USA, and Japan), usually conducted at government level and carried out for a variety of reasons including the promotion of national R&D and industry competitiveness. Larger business organizations, particularly those with a scientific and technical base, sometimes carry out their own exercises usually as part of longer term strategy, although foresight is possible for smaller organizations too. This article provides a short and simple guide to the foresight process with the specific aim of deriving real value for organizations rather than merely conducting an interesting exercise.
The inevitability of a business model for higher education
Authors: Abeles Tom P.
Published: June 2007

Scholars have wandered the earth seeking community and resources for practising their art. It has only been for the last 500 years that universities have provided such a cloistered environment. A confluence of circumstances has broken this intellectual hegemony, threatening the sinecure, and forcing the institutions and the academics, themselves, to confront a past that never was while building towards a future that never will be.
Creating the future: innovation and the unlearning organization
Authors: Buchen Irving H.
Published: June 2007

The future does not just happen; it is created whenever we are innovative. For that to occur systematically and predictably, organizations have to become involved in at least five interventions. First, they must invite synergy between intellectuality and creativity and ultimately tap both. Second, they need to introduce unlearning. Third, they have to find the right mechanism and create the right environment for creativity and the future to coexist and flourish together. Fourth, there is a discipline involved in creative dislocation which they need to understand. Fifth, they must explore the many steps – ten are outlined here – that promote the unlearning process and disorient the time/space continuum.
Future configurations for remote work
Authors: Morelli Nicola
Published: June 2007

The changes generated by information and telecommunication technologies in the organization of work activities may influence the way that modern cities will change in both the short and long term. The radical changes predicted in the first utopian scenarios have not taken place yet, but there is evidence of slow changes that are reshaping work and urban structures. This article analyses this evidence, in the light of the utopian and dystopian views proposed by many authors, with the aim of outlining scenarios for the future of work activities and urban structures.
The end of the world is not nigh
Authors: London Herbert I.
Published: June 2007

Popular fearmongers never let the facts ruin a good story, even though, this article reflects, history has proven the pessimists wrong. Pessimistic predictions in a range of areas including land, population, energy, economy and technology are deflated and a lively selection of “futurist howlers” spanning the last two centuries is provided by way of counsel for today’s futurists. The article concludes that the culture of pessimism is not only a dead end, it is patently false.