bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A Framework to Assure the Trustworthiness of Physical Model-Based Digital Twins for Marine Engines
Authors: Jeon Jaehan , Theotokatos Gerasimos
Published: March 2024

Digital twins (DTs) are gradually employed in the maritime industry to represent the physical systems and generate datasets, among others. However, the trustworthiness of both the digital twins and datasets must be assured. This study aims at developing a framework to assure the trustworthiness of marine engines DTs based on first-principle models. This framework considers the phases of the DT development, progressivity, and trustworthiness assurance, the latter being based on three steps, namely validation, verification, and robustness. Subsequently, a methodology is applied to develop the DT of a marine engine for healthy conditions, which is extended to represent a wider operating envelope considering systematically identified anomalies. The results demonstrate that the developed DT trustworthiness is assured, as the validation step provided errors within ±3%, the verification step provided sound trade-offs, whereas the robustness assessment step confirmed acceptable uncertainty ratios. Subsequently, the DT is employed to generate datasets required for developing a data-driven model for anomaly diagnosis, which exhibits an accuracy of 98.8% for anomaly detection, 97.6% for anomaly identification, and 90.1–91.8% for anomaly isolation. This is the first study addressing the trustworthiness of DTs for marine engines, and as such advances concepts of the fourth industrial revolution to the shipping industry.
Investigations into Motion Responses of Suspended Submersible in Internal Solitary Wave Field
Authors: He Zhenyang , Wu Wenbin , Wang Junrong , Ding Lan , Chang Qiangbo , Huang Yahao
Published: March 2024

When the underwater submersible encounters an internal solitary wave (ISW), its loadings and motions are significantly disturbed. To investigate the interaction mechanism between the suspended submersible and the ISW, a three-dimensional ISW–submersible-interaction numerical model was established, based on the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) method. The generation and propagation of the ISW was simulated in a two-layer fluid numerical wave tank, according to the eKdV theory. The standard operation equation of the submersible was introduced to simulate the six degree of freedom (6DoF) motions of the submersible combined with the overset dynamic mesh method. The motion simulation method was effectively validated by comparing it with published experimental results on the motion responses of a slender body under the ISW. Based on the constructed numerical model, the dynamic mechanisms between the suspended submersible and the ISW were studied, and the effects of the initial submerged depths and the ISW amplitudes on the dynamic responses of the submersible were revealed. According to the numerical results, the motions of the submersible have been significantly determined by its initial submerged depths. The submersible located above the ISW interface has a significant motion along the propagation direction of the ISW and its motion trajectory resembles a counterclockwise semi ellipse. The motion of the submersible located below the ISW interface follows the trace of the lower layer of fluid, which presents as an unclosed clockwise ellipse. The corresponding motions of the submersible would be increased with the increase in the ISW amplitudes.
Morphological Differences and Contour Visualization of Statoliths in Different Geographic Populations of Purpleback Flying Squid (Sthenoteuthis oualaniensis)
Authors: Chu Moxian , Liu Bilin , Ou Liguo , Chen Ziyue , Li Qingying
Published: March 2024

Statoliths are important hard tissues in cephalopods. Significant differences are found in the external morphology of statoliths in different groups or species. In this study, stepwise discriminant analysis was used to investigate the external morphological differences in purpleback flying squid statoliths in three different marine regions, comprising the East Indian Ocean (5° S–2° N, 82°–92° E), Central East Pacific Ocean (02°37′ S–0°59′ N, 99°44′ W–114°19′ W), and Northwest Indian Ocean (17°04′ N–17°18′ N, 61°05′ E–61°32′ E). The contours of statoliths were reconstructed visually by using Fourier analysis and the landmark method. The results obtained by stepwise discriminant analysis showed that the accuracy of identification was 84.4% for the traditional measurement method, 82.9% for the Fourier analysis method, and 87.3% for the landmark method. The contour visualization results showed that the purpleback flying squid statoliths were small in the Central East Pacific Ocean, and the curvature of the side region was the most obvious. The radian differentiation of statoliths was most gentle in the East Indian Ocean. In the Northwest Indian Ocean, the rostral region of statoliths was shorter and the dorsal region was smoother. The reconstruction results detected significant differences in the outer morphology of statoliths in different marine regions. The results obtained in this study show that all three methods are effective for identifying populations, but the landmark method is better than the traditional measurement method. The reconstruction of statolith contours using the Fourier transform and landmark methods provides an important scientific basis for conducting taxonomy, according to statolith morphology.
Deployment Strategy of Shore-Based Cooperative Units for the Internet of Inland Vessels
Authors: Li Puya , Zhang Chunchang
Published: March 2024

Aiming at the communication network optimization problem of the Internet of Inland Vessels, this work presented a network model and deployment strategy with shore-based cooperative units as network nodes. Firstly, the system architecture and communication mode of the Internet of Inland Vessels were analyzed. The three-layer model of service, data, and transmission of ship–shore communication was established to calculate the ship–shore communication data volume of the system. Then, considering the comprehensiveness of the signal coverage of the base station, a coverage model of two-layer heterogeneous network communication was established. Furthermore, an optimization model of shore-based cooperative unit deployment was established with power consumption, cost, and data transmission rate as the objectives. The multi-objective optimization model was solved by the genetic algorithm. Finally, the proposed deployment strategy was verified through simulation cases. The simulation results showed that the proposed deployment strategy could reduce the deployment cost of shore-based cooperative units based on meeting the communication demand and deploy regional shore-based cooperative units.
Maximum Impacts of the Initial and Model Parametric Errors on El Niño Predictions
Authors: Tao Lingjiang
Published: March 2024

With an El Niño prediction model, an advanced approach of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) is used to reveal the maximum impacts of the errors occurring in initial conditions (ICs) and model parameters (MPs) on the El Niño predictions. The optimally growing initial errors CNOP-I and parameter errors CNOP-P are obtained, as well as their optimally combined mode (denoted by CNOPs). The comparisons among CNOP-I, -P, and CNOPs show that the El Niño predictions are more sensitive to the uncertainties in the MPs than in the ICs. The CNOP-I mainly affects the short-term prediction (less than 3 months), whereas the CNOP-P tends to induce much larger error over a longer prediction time. Both CNOP-I and CNOP-P can induce larger error growth during spring than during other seasons; that is to say, both of them cause the “spring predictability barrier” (SPB) phenomenon. The spring error growth caused by CNOP-I is mainly attributed to the uncertainties of the ocean advection processes, while that caused by the CNOP-P is controlled by thermodynamics. When the errors in ICs and MPs are simultaneously included in predictions, the resultant CNOPs produce much larger error growth and cause much more significant SPB; furthermore, the corresponding mechanism is dominated by the nonlinear advection processes. This certainly indicates that strong nonlinear interactions between the errors in ICs and MPs enhance the SPB, thus deepening our understanding of El Niño predictability. It is obvious that initial and model errors should be simultaneously given great attention to improve the El Niño prediction level.
Three-Dimensional Turbulent Simulation of Bivariate Normal Distribution Protection Device
Authors: Liu Jing , Li Zongyu , Huang Hanming , Lin Weiwei , Sun Zhilin , Chen Fanjun
Published: March 2024

In response to the deficiencies in existing bridge pier scour protection technologies, this paper introduces a novel protective device, namely a normal distribution-shaped surface (BND) protection devices formed by rotating a concave normal curve. A three-dimensional turbulent SST k−ω model is constructed, and physical model experiments of conical surfaces are conducted to validate the mathematical model. The simulation analyzes longitudinal water flow, downflow, vorticity intensity, and shear stress within normal and conical surfaces. The results show that the downflow distribution in front of the pier spans a relative water depth of (−0.45, 0.67), with a peak velocity approximately 70% of the longitudinal flow velocity. Circulation forms within the surfaces, with the main vortex flux inside the BND being 33% lower than that inside the conical surface. The maximum shear stress coefficient inside the BND can reach 9, and the protective surface isolates the bed from the flow to prevent scouring by high shear stress. The velocity gradient at the edge of the surface is small, and the edge shear stress of the 3D normal distribution-shaped surface (BND) protection device is only one-third of that of the conical surface, preventing edge scouring. The large shear stress and its distribution area decrease monotonically with the increase in surface width. When the surface width is four times the diameter, the distribution range of the shear stress coefficient greater than 1 is very small. The study of three-Dimensional turbulence within the BND provides a numerical basis for an anti-scour design.
Risk Assessment for Recreational Activities in the Coastal Ocean
Authors: Chuang Hui-Chieh , Doong Dong-Jiing , Ho Chung-Ru , Ho Ya-Hui
Published: March 2024

Ocean recreational activities (ORAs), including swimming, surfing, diving, paddleboarding, etc., in global marine areas are becoming increasingly popular. However, there are potential risks in coastal ocean environments. This study aims to establish a framework for assessing the risk according to the joint hazard and vulnerability levels of the ORA environment. Important factors include meteo-ocean conditions, geographic features, biological and chemical characteristics, and records of historical accidents, as well as social, environmental and tourist perceptions. The fuzzy Delphi method (FDM) is used to screen the representative factors, followed by using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) to determine the weight of each factor. The results show that 9 hazard factors and 12 vulnerability factors are dominant. The framework is applied to 307 beaches in Taiwan, and 8% of them are categorized as very high risk and 13% as very low risk for ORAs. A risk map that displays the hazard, vulnerability, and overall risk levels is presented to tourists to provide quick access to risk information.
Teleseismic Indication of Magmatic and Tectonic Activities at Slow- and Ultraslow-Spreading Ridges
Authors: Yan Kaixuan , Chen Jie , Zhang Tao
Published: March 2024

Magmatic and tectonic processes in the formation of oceanic lithosphere at slow–ultraslow-spreading mid-ocean ridges (MORs) are more complicated relative to faster-spreading ridges, as their melt flux is overall low, with highly spatial and temporal variations. Here, we use the teleseismic catalog of magnitudes over 4 between 1995 and 2020 from the International Seismological Center to investigate the characteristics of magmatic and tectonic activities at the ultraslow-spreading Southwest Indian Ridge and Arctic Gakkel Ridge and the slow-spreading North Mid-Atlantic Ridge and Carlsberg Ridge (total length of 14,300 km). Using the single-link cluster analysis technique, we identify 78 seismic swarms (≥8 events), 877 sequences (2–7 events), and 3543 single events. Seismic swarms often occur near the volcanic center of second-order segments, presumably relating to relatively robust magmatism. By comparing the patterns of seismicity between ultraslow- and slow-spreading ridges, and between melt-rich and melt-poor regions of the Southwest Indian Ridge with distinct seafloor morphologies, we demonstrate that a lower spreading rate and a lower melt supply correspond to a higher seismicity rate and a higher potential of large volcano-induced seismic swarms, probably due to a thicker and colder lithosphere with a higher degree of along-axis melt focusing there.
Reliability Assessment for Integrated Seaport Energy System Considering Multiple Thermal Inertia
Authors: Yang Tiankai , Sun Zhenzhong , Liang Yongliang , Liu Lichuan
Published: March 2024

With the rapid development of global trade, a large number of goods and resources are imported and exported via seaports. Multiple thermal loads and renewable energy merge into seaports, making the energy supply and demand structure increasingly complex. The traditional seaport becomes an integrated seaport energy system (ISES). Due to the complicated energy interaction of cooling, heating, electricity, and gas subsystems, the ISES urgently require reliable and secure operation. Hence, this paper proposes a new reliability assessment method for the ISES that considers thermal inertia. Firstly, the operational structure of the ISES is established considering multi-energy coupling relationships. Then, a two-stage optimal load curtailment model is constructed with multiple thermal inertias. In addition, the reliability assessment method for the ISES is proposed based on the sequential Monte Carlo simulation method. Simulations are presented to verify the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Energy Characteristics in the Flow Channel of the Shaft-Type Tubular Pumping Station Considering Tides
Authors: He Yufan , Luo Can , Cheng Li , Gu Yandong , Gu Bin
Published: March 2024

The shaft-type tubular pumping station has the remarkable characteristics of a large flow rate and high efficiency. It can realize the functions of irrigation, pumping, and drainage through pumping and generating conditions considering tides. Moreover, it is widely used in the plain area of eastern China and the tidal area along the marine region. Due to the different topological features of the airfoil of the impeller, the energy evolution characteristics of the shaft-type tubular pumping station during pumping and generating conditions remain unclear. The entropy generation theory was introduced to numerically simulate the flow pattern and energy characteristics in the shaft-type channel, impeller, and straight channel in operation conditions. The results show that the flow pattern is stable when the shaft-type channel and the straight-type channel are used as the inlet channel under pumping and generating conditions, and a low-pressure region occurs in the contraction section of the shaft-type channel. The velocity of sections of the inlet and outlet and the middle section of the impeller in the generating condition is larger than that in the pumping condition. In addition, the difference in the static pressure on the blade surface nearby the hub is large. With a change in the position of the wingspan, the difference gradually decreases from the small flow condition to the large flow condition. There is a high-entropy production rate zone in the channel contraction section and the shaft-type wall surface of the shaft-type flow channel. When the straight-type channel is used as the outlet flow channel, a high-entropy production region appears near the inlet water surface. In the pumping condition, a high-entropy production area is found at the inlet of the impeller, the blade groove channel, and the inlet of the guide vane. In the generating condition, a high-entropy production area is found at the out-of-impeller outlet, the blade groove channel, and the outlet of the guide vane. These research achievements have some reference value for the design of the shaft-type tubular pumping station considering tides and the study of hydraulic performance, along with the energy characteristics of the channels.
Safety Analysis of Initial Separation Phase for AUV Deployment of Mission Payloads
Authors: Wang Zhengwei , Gu Haitao , Lang Jichao , Xing Lin
Published: March 2024

This study verifies the effects of deployment parameters on the safe separation of Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) and mission payloads. The initial separation phase is meticulously modeled based on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations employing the cubic constitutive Shear Stress Transport (SST) k-ω turbulence model and overset grid technologies. This phase is characterized by a 6-degree-of-freedom (6-DOF) framework incorporating Dynamic Fluid-Body Interaction (DFBI), supported by empirical validation. The SST k-ω turbulence model demonstrates superior performance in managing flows characterized by adverse pressure gradients and separation. DFBI entails computationally modeling fluid–solid interactions during motion or deformation. The utilization of overset grids presents several advantages, including enhanced computational efficiency by concentrating computational resources solely on regions of interest, simplified handling of intricate geometries and moving bodies, and adaptability in adjusting grids to accommodate changing simulation conditions. This research analyzes mission payloads’ trajectories and attitude adjustments after release from AUVs under various cruising speeds and initial release dynamics, such as descent and angular velocities. Additionally, this study evaluates the effects of varying ocean currents at different depths on separation safety. Results indicate that the interaction between AUVs and mission payloads during separation increases under higher navigational speeds, reducing the separation speed and degrading the stability. As the initial drop velocities increase, fast transition through the AUV’s immediate flow field promotes separation. The core of this process is the initial pitch angle management upon deployment. Optimizing initial pitching angular velocity prolongs the time for mission payloads to reach their maximum pitch angle, thus decreasing horizontal displacement and improving separation safety. Deploying AUVs at greater depths alleviates the influence of ocean currents, thereby reducing disturbances during payload separation.
Bottom and Suspended Sediment Backscatter Measurements in a Flume—Towards Quantitative Bed and Water Column Properties
Authors: Van Dijk Thaiënne A. G. P. , Roche Marc , Lurton Xavier , Fezzani Ridha , Simmons Stephen M. , Gastauer Sven , Fietzek Peer , Mesdag Chris , Berger Laurent , Klein Breteler Mark , Parsons Dan R.
Published: March 2024

For health and impact studies of water systems, monitoring underwater environments is essential, for which multi-frequency single- and multibeam echosounders are commonly used state-of-the-art technologies. However, the current scarcity of sediment reference datasets of both bottom backscatter angular response and water column scattering hampers empirical data interpretation. Comprehensive reference data derived from measurements in a controlled environment should optimize the use of empirical backscatter data. To prepare for such innovative experiments, we conducted a feasibility experiment in the Delta Flume (Deltares, The Netherlands). Several configurations of sonar data were recorded of the flume floor and suspended sediment plumes. The results revealed that flume reverberation was sufficiently low and that the differential settling of fine-sand plumes in the water column was clearly detected. Following this successful feasibility test, future comprehensive experiments will feature multi-frequency multi-angle measurements on a variety of sediment types, additional scatterers and sediment plumes, resulting in reference datasets for an improved interpretation of underwater backscatter measurements for scientific observation and sustainable management.
The Sediments in the Beibu Gulf Reveal Dramatic Paleoenvironmental Changes and Climate Events over the Past ~20,000 Years
Authors: Li Yuchun , Fan Tianlai , Wang Aihua , Zeng Jun , Lv Yubiao , Zhang Mingwang , Liu Dajun
Published: April 2024

The geochemical characteristics of a 2.1 m BBW25 core, collected from the Beibu Gulf, have been investigated in terms of the major and trace elements, organic matter, and CaCO3 and AMS 14C dating by XRF, ICP-OES, ICP-MS, and more. We have found through previous research that there are issues with unclear delineation of sedimentary evolution environments and inexact responses between chemical weathering intensity and major paleoclimate events in the Beibu Gulf. The AMS 14C dating results indicate that the sedimentary age at the bottom was 19.24 ky b.p. CaCO3, δ13C, C/N, and Sr/Ba indexes show a sedimentary environment change from terrestrial to marine environments and a “jump” of ~4000 years in continent–ocean changes. The evolution of the sedimentary environment of Beibu Gulf was divided into three environments and five sub-environments. The changes in chemical weathering intensity indicators recorded by the CIX and the Fe/Al ratio respond well to the East Asian monsoon cycle, the meltwater events, and the alternation of cold and warm events. This study explains the chemical weathering intensity and sedimentary environment in the BBW25 core by geochemical characteristics and further reveals the paleoenvironmental characteristics and possible driving mechanisms over the past ~20,000 years.
Procymidone Application Contributes to Multidrug Resistance of Botrytis cinerea
Authors: Wu Zhaochen , Yu Chuxian , Bi Qiuyan , Zhang Junting , Hao Jianjun , Liu Pengfei , Liu Xili
Published: March 2024

The necrotrophic pathogen Botrytis cinerea infects a broad range of plant hosts and causes substantial economic losses to many crops. Although resistance to procymidone has been observed in the field, it remains uncertain why procymidone is usually involved in multidrug resistance (MDR) together with other fungicides. Nine mutants derived from the B. cinerea strain B05.10 through procymidone domestication exhibited high resistance factors (RFs) against both procymidone and fludioxonil. However, the fitness of the mutants was reduced compared to their parental strain, showing non-sporulation and moderate virulence. Furthermore, the RFs of these mutants to other fungicides, such as azoxystrobin, fluazinam, difenoconazole, and pyrimethanil, ranged from 10 to 151, indicating the occurrence of MDR. Transcriptive expression analysis using the quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) revealed that the mutants overexpressed ABC transporter genes, ranging from 2 to 93.7-fold. These mutants carried single-point mutations W647X, R96X, and Q751X within BcBos1 by DNA sequencing. These alterations in BcBos1 conferred resistance to procymidone and other fungicides in the mutants. Molecular docking analysis suggested distinct interactions between procymidone and Bos1 in the B. cinerea standard strain B05.10 or the resistant mutants, suggesting a higher affinity of the former towards binding with the fungicide. This study provides a comprehensive understanding of the biological characteristics of the resistant mutants and conducts an initial investigation into its fungicide resistance traits, providing a reference for understanding the causes of multidrug resistance of B. cinerea in the field.
MASLD-Related HCC—Update on Pathogenesis and Current Treatment Options
Authors: Leyh Catherine , Coombes Jason D. , Schmidt Hartmut H. , Canbay Ali , Manka Paul P. , Best Jan
Published: March 2024

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a common complication of chronic liver diseases and remains a relevant cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. The global prevalence of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) as a risk factor for hepatocarcinogenesis is on the rise. Early detection of HCC has been crucial in improving the survival outcomes of patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH), even in the absence of cirrhosis. Understanding how hepatocarcinogenesis develops in MASH is increasingly becoming a current research focus. Additive risk factors such as type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), genetic polymorphisms, and intestinal microbiota may have specific impacts. Pathophysiological and epidemiological associations between MASH and HCC will be discussed in this review. We will additionally review the available tumor therapies concerning their efficacy in MASH-associated HCC treatment.
Hearing and Language Skills in Children Using Hearing Aids: Experimental Intervention Study
Authors: Burigo Luana Speck Polli , Quialheiro Anna , de Paiva Karina Mary , dos Santos Thaiana Vargas , Woide Luciele Kauana , Cigana Luciana Berwanger , Massignani Janaina , Haas Patricia
Published: March 2024

Introduction: Hearing loss in childhood compromises a child’s auditory, linguistic, and social skill development. Stimulation and early intervention through therapy and the use of personal sound amplification devices (PSAPs) are important for improving communication. Purpose: To verify the effectiveness of speech therapy intervention on the auditory and linguistic skills of Brazilian children aged between 6 and 8 years using PSAPs. Methods: Experimental study analyzing the intervention process in children aged between 6 and 8 years with mild to severe bilateral hearing loss and prelingual deafness who are PSAP users. Diagnostic information was analyzed, and assessments and interventions were carried out using the Glendonald Auditory Screening Procedure (GASP), a phoneme discrimination test with figures (TFDF), an expressive language category classification test, and an Infant-Toddler Meaningful Auditory Integration Scale (IT-MAIS) questionnaire. Results: Sixteen children participated in the study; they were divided into a control group (CG) of six children and an intervention group (IG) of ten children. All research subjects underwent two protocol application sessions, and the IG underwent six speech therapy intervention sessions. In the IT-MAIS, the CG had a 9% increase in score, and the IG had an increase of 3% after intervention. The TFDF obtained a 5% increase in the IG in terms of phonemic discrimination ability. The expressive language category classification tests and GASP were considered not sensitive enough to modify the parameters of auditory and linguistic skills. Conclusions: The study found a significant improvement amongst the IG in the TFDF protocol and an increase in IT-MAIS scores in both groups.
Association between C-Reactive Protein to Albumin Ratio and Multi-Vessel Coronary Artery Disease in Patients with Stable Coronary Artery Disease
Authors: Akkaya Suleyman , Cakmak Umit
Published: March 2024

Multivessel coronary artery disease (MV-CAD) remains a prevalent and serious health concern despite advances in treatment. Early identification and risk stratification are crucial for optimizing treatment. The CRP-to-albumin ratio (CAR) has emerged as a promising biomarker in various inflammatory diseases. This study investigated the potential of CAR as a marker for MV-CAD. We retrospectively analyzed 1360 patients with suspected CAD. Patients were divided into three groups based on CAR tertiles. Logistic regression analyses were carried out to estimate the association between MHR and MV-CAD. Elevated CAR levels were significantly associated with an increased prevalence of CAD (p < 0.001), severe CAD (p < 0.001), and MV-CAD (p < 0.001). Patients with the highest CAR tertile had five times higher odds of MV-CAD compared to the lowest tertile (p < 0.001). CAR demonstrated moderate accuracy in predicting MV-CAD (AUC: 0.644, 95% CI: 0.615–0.674, p < 0.001). CAR holds promise as a tool for the early identification and risk stratification of multivessel CAD. Further research is warranted to validate its clinical utility and explore its potential to guide treatment decisions and improve outcomes in patients with this high-risk condition.
Assessing Machine Learning Techniques for Predicting Banking Crises in India
Authors: Puli Sreenivasulu , Thota Nagaraju , Subrahmanyam A. C. V.
Published: March 2024

The historical prevalence of banking crises and their profound impact on global economies underscores the imperative for policy makers to refine their crisis forecasting frameworks. Against this backdrop, the present study endeavors to predict potential banking crises in India by leveraging a spectrum of artificial intelligence and machine learning techniques (AI-ML). These techniques encompass logistic regression, random forest, naïve Bayes, gradient boosting, support vector machine, neural networks, K-nearest neighbors, and decision trees. Initially, a banking fragility index was constructed utilizing monthly banking data spanning 2002 to 2023, demarcating the periods of crisis and stability. Subsequently, an extensive array of early warning indicators (EWIs) encompassing asset prices, macroeconomic factors, external influences, and credit-related variables were employed to forecast crisis periods. Our findings reveal that AI-ML models exhibit reasonable accuracy in predicting banking crises. Moreover, advanced model performance metrics highlight neural networks and random forest models as particularly effective in crisis prediction, surpassing other methodologies. Notably, among the EWIs, variables related to credit, interest rates, and liquidity emerge as possessing relatively higher information value in discerning fragilities within the Indian banking system. Importantly, the methodological framework presented herein can be extrapolated for banking crisis prediction in other economies.
Navigating Financial Frontiers in the Tourism Economies of Kosovo and Albania during and beyond COVID-19
Authors: Lulaj Enkeleda , Tase Mirela , Gomes Conceição , Cardoso Lucília
Published: March 2024

The problem addressed in this study is the profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism economies of Kosovo (KOS) and Albania (AL), which led to economic–financial stagnation and price increases. The aim was to analyze the financial frontier challenges facing the tourism industry during COVID-19 and beyond and propose effective strategies for shaping a sustainable future for countries within Europe with great potential for tourism development in the current decade. The survey was conducted in 102 locations, including cities, municipalities, regions, villages, and neighborhoods in both countries over the years 2020–2023, while data analysis was performed using a cluster analysis (K-means and hierarchical) and the multidimensional scaling method (Alscal). The results highlighted (a) the severe impact of COVID-19 on both the population and businesses in the tourism sector, which will persist beyond the pandemic, (b) the indispensable role of government intervention in alleviating the financial crisis, (c) the need for innovative approaches and accurate financial management by both the country and businesses to attract tourists, and (d) the importance of control and management for financial sustainability. This paper is of significant importance to tourism destinations as it provides insights into the severe impact of COVID-19 on both the population and businesses in the tourism economies. By highlighting the indispensable role of government intervention, the need for innovative approaches and accurate financial management, and the importance of control and management for financial sustainability, the study offers valuable guidance for tourism destinations in navigating the current crisis and attracting tourists. Furthermore, the paper emphasizes the need for future studies to explore opportunities for long-term financial resilience and growth, contributing to the development of sustainable tourism destinations.
A Land Administration Data Exchange and Interoperability Framework for Kenya and Its Significance to the Sustainable Development Goals
Authors: Okembo Clifford , Morales Javier , Lemmen Christiaan , Zevenbergen Jaap , Kuria David
Published: March 2024

Sharing land data from one department to the other is a continuous process. A solid structure and a set of guidelines on how to share them is to be put in place as a foundation for the development of a land administration data exchange and interoperability framework in support of data acquisition, land transactions and distribution of land data. In this research, the application of the ISO Framework for Enterprise Interoperability (FEI) as a standard is the starting point. Utilising the Land Administration Domain Model (LADM) profile for Kenya as a base, an interoperability framework in support of land administration in Kenya is developed that addresses concerns, removes barriers and selects the approach for implementation. Due to the critical nature of land, it fits into the United Nations 2030 sustainability agenda. During the development of the Kenyan profile, four country-specific issues in the context of people-to-land relationships have been identified and modeled. The mapping of those issues relevant to the sustainable development goals supports the achievement of those goals so that all related targets and indicators can be attained. Using GIS tools, the implementing and testing of the new LADM profile for Kenya is not a difficult task. By using existing land data combined with newly collected data in the LADM-compliant database, a complete and accurate workflow is assured. Integration with external databases is useful for improving efficiency and eliminating duplication. Data collection with all stakeholders and validation through public inspection are recommended.
The Green Development in Saline–Alkali Lands: The Evolutionary Game Framework of Small Farmers, Family Farms, and Seed Industry Enterprises
Authors: Chen Yusheng , Sun Zhaofa , Wang Yanmei , Ma Ye , Zhou Yongwei
Published: March 2024

Amid global climate change and population growth, the prevalence of saline–alkali lands significantly hampers sustainable agricultural development. This study employs theories of asymmetric information and bounded rationality to construct an evolutionary game model, analyzing the interactions among small farmers, family farms, and seed industry enterprises in the context of saline–alkali land management. It investigates the strategic choices and dynamics of these stakeholders under the influence of economic incentives and risk perceptions, with a focus on how government policies can foster green development. Utilizing Delay Differential Equations (DDEs) for simulations, this study highlights the risk of “market failure” without government intervention and underscores the need for government participation to stabilize and improve the efficiency of the green development process. The findings reveal that factors such as initial willingness to participate, the economic viability of salt-tolerant crops, seed pricing, research and development costs, and the design of incentive policies are crucial for sustainable land use. Accordingly, the paper proposes specific policy measures to enhance green development, including strengthening information dissemination and technical training, increasing the economic attractiveness of salt-tolerant crops, alleviating research and development pressures on seed companies, and optimizing economic incentives. This study provides a theoretical and policy framework for the sustainable management of saline–alkali lands, offering insights into the behavioral choices of agricultural stakeholders and supporting government strategies for agricultural and environmental protection.
Differentiated Impacts of Land-Use Changes on Landscape and Ecosystem Services under Different Land Management System Regions in Sanjiang Plain of China from 1990 to 2020
Authors: Ning Letian , Pan Tao , Zhang Quanjing , Zhang Mingli , Li Zhi , Hou Yali
Published: March 2024

Currently, impacts of rapid cropland reclamation and its intense structural changes in internal paddy-upland on ecosystem service are insufficient in Sanjiang Plain, China. Further, land management systems of Sanjiang Plain consist of state-owned and private farms; however, exploring the impact of different land management systems on “land use–landscape–ecosystem service” is still lacking. To reveal this issue, the integrated methodology of “land dynamic tracking–landscape index–improved ecosystem service assessment” was established. Results are displayed below: From 1990 to 2020, land use was featured by decreases in forest (−3308.62 km2), grassland (−6030.86 km2), waters (−475.81 km2), and unused land (−3037.27 km2), with a slight increase in constructed land (+403.25 km2) and a rapid increase in cropland (+12,447.56 km2). Although nearly equal increments of cropland on state-owned and private farms (i.e., 6156.70 km2 vs. 6290.86 km2) were monitored, different cropland structure changes were still revealed, namely a drastic expansion of paddy fields (13,788.32 km2) and an acute decrease in upland crops (−7631.62 km2) on state-owned farms, but both a slight increments in paddy fields (5920.08 km2) and upland crops (370.78 km2) on private farms. For landscape, private farms were more fragmented (SHDI = +0.63%), causing a decrease in aggregation (AI = −0.56%) and a more complex shape (LSI = +23.3%), by contrast, state-owned farms displayed an increased integrity (SHDI = −9.88%), along with an increase in aggregation (AI = +0.43%) and simplified shape (LSI = −13.30%). Evaluated ecosystem service value changed from 338.62 to 296.25 billion yuan from 1990 to 2020, a loss rate of 12.58% in Sanjiang Plain. Then, a new finding showed a higher loss rate on state-owned than private farms (i.e., 30.15% vs. only 6.18%). This study revealed differentiated processes of “land use–landscape–ecosystem service” in different land management system regions in China, providing new findings in the fields of land management system, ecological landscape, and environment.
Assessment and Empirical Research on the Suitability of Eco-Tourism Development in Nature Reserves of China: A Multi-Type Comparative Perspective
Authors: Zhang Shengrui , Zhang Zhenqi , Yu Hu , Zhang Tongyan
Published: March 2024

The assessment of suitability is the cornerstone for the development of ecotourism in nature reserves. This paper adopts the Delphi method to invite 30 experts to score and screen a series of indicators and then calculates the weight of each indicator through the hierarchical analysis method (AHP) to establish a comprehensive evaluation index system for the suitability of ecotourism development. The AHP method includes four constraints layers (tourism resources, socio-economic environment, ecological conditions, and tourism market), in addition to eleven element layers and thirty-eight indicators. It establishes overarching criteria for evaluating ecotourism suitability. Our research focuses on Dinghushan, Xilin Gol Grassland, Hongze Lake Wetland, and Jiuzhai valley, and the results are as follows: (1) Ecotourism suitability evaluation level is divided into five levels, level I (0 ≤ S < 30) ecotourism development suitability is the lowest, meaning an area is extremely unsuitable for ecotourism development. Level V (90 ≤ S < 100) has a very high ecotourism value, meaning an area is highly suitable for ecotourism development. (2) Jiuzhai valley scored the highest ecotourism suitability evaluation score of 87.63, and Xilingol Grassland scored the lowest score of 81.27. However, the composite scores of all the nature reserves were above 80, placing them at Suitability Level IV, and thereby indicating a high suitability for ecotourism development. (3) Divergences in ecotourism suitability emerge among various nature reserve types, with grassland and meadow reserves exhibiting lower suitability levels. Addressing this, a robust management and monitoring system is imperative, alongside intensified efforts in ecological restoration, vegetation protection, community engagement, education, awareness, and increased policy support and tourism capital investment. (4) The results of the expert questionnaire showed that the maximum weight of the indicators affecting the evaluation of the suitability of ecotourism was the satisfaction of tourists (0.120), and the minimum weight was the accommodation facilities (0.002), which illustrated the important role of tourists in the ecotourism development carried out in the nature reserve. (5) Through empirical analysis of numerous cases, the study validates the practicality and effectiveness of the index system and provides scientific guidelines for the suitability of existing nature reserves for further ecotourism development. This contributes to the research theory on the suitability evaluation of ecotourism development and serves as a valuable reference for the future ecotourism development of diverse nature reserves.
Spatiotemporal Dynamics and Influencing Factors of Vegetation Net Primary Productivity in the Yangtze River Delta Region, China
Authors: Wang Tinghui , Gao Mengfan , Fu Qi , Chen Jinhua
Published: March 2024

Vegetation Net Primary Productivity (NPP) plays a crucial role in terrestrial carbon sinks and the global carbon cycle. Investigating the spatiotemporal dynamics and influencing factors in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) region can furnish a solid scientific foundation for green, low-carbon, and sustainable development in China, as well as a reference for other rapidly urbanizing regions. This study focuses on the YRD region as an illustration and utilizes the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach (CASA model) to quantify NPP in this region from 2000 to 2018. Investigation into the spatiotemporal dynamics and influencing factors was conducted using Theil–Sen median trend analysis and scenario analysis. The results indicate that the NPP in the YRD region from 2000 to 2018 exhibited pronounced spatial differentiation characteristics, typically exhibiting a spatial distribution pattern of being high in the south and low in the north, high in the west and low in the east. Additionally, the expansion of built-up areas and the reduction in cultivated land have the potential to reduce NPP in the YRD region. Moreover, the influence of land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) is anticipated to be relatively limited compared to that of climate change. Furthermore, changes in precipitation were found to be positively correlated with changes in NPP, with the effect being relatively more pronounced. The correlation between temperature and NPP demonstrated spatial differentiation, with a mainly positive correlation in the central and southern parts of the YRD and a mainly negative correlation in the northern part. Changes in solar radiation had a negative correlation with changes in NPP. Based on these results, it is recommended that local governments strictly enforce urban development boundaries and manage the disorderly expansion of built-up areas, enhance the regional irrigation infrastructure, and address air pollution, so as to ensure the necessary conditions for the growth of vegetation, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and control regional temperature rises. This study can provide stronger evidence for revealing the influencing mechanisms of NPP through the control of impact conditions and the exclusion of confounding factors via scenario analysis. The policy implications can offer insights into NPP enhancement and environmental management for the YRD and other rapidly urbanizing regions.
Response of Runoff Change to Soil and Water Conservation Measures in the Jing River Catchment of China
Authors: Li Xiaoxin , Mao Ruichen , Song Jinxi , Gao Junqing , Shi Aying , Xiang Wei , Sun Haotian
Published: March 2024

Soil and water conservation measures (SWCMs) are vital in reducing runoff and ultimately affect water security and regional development. However, previous studies have mainly focused on the impact of a single SWCM, neglecting to distinguish between the effects of different SWCMs on runoff reduction. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was established in the Jing River catchment to identify the responses to runoff changes resulting from climate change and human activities. The model was used to quantitatively analyse the impact of different SWCMs on runoff reduction. The results indicated that human activities contributed significantly more to runoff reduction than climate change. The reduction benefits of different unit area changes for each SWCM on discharge, surface runoff and water yield at the outlet were ranked as follows: changing cultivated land to forest land > changing cultivated land to grassland > building terraces on a 5–15° slope > building terraces on a 5–25° slope > building terraces on a 15–25° slope. Regional authorities should comprehensively consider the effects of various SWCMs on water reduction, and optimise the layout of vegetation and terracing measures, to support the efficient utilization of water resources in the Jing River catchment.
Spatio-Temporal Pattern of Urban Green Space in Chengdu Urban Center under Rapid Urbanization: From the Policy-Oriented Perspective
Authors: Li Kelei , Du Wenpeng , Yang Zhiqi , Yan Huimin , Mu Yutong
Published: March 2024

Urban green space (UGS) is increasingly recognized as a nature-based solution to achieving urban sustainable development. Under rapid urbanization, greening policies are often the main driving factor behind the restoration or even growth of UGS. In this study, Chengdu, the pioneering “park city” in China, is chosen as a representative region. Based on land use/land cover (LULC) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data, indicators that can reflect both UGS quantity and quality are constructed and the spatio-temporal characteristics of UGS in original and expanding urban areas are also explored at different greening policy stages. The findings show that, from 2000 to 2022, the basic trend of UGS reduction during urbanization remained unchanged, despite the greening policies implemented in Chengdu. However, the original urban area has evolved into a new urban area. This has been achieved by integrating the expanded urban area with higher greening rates, resulting in the greening rate in 2022 (44.61%) being restored to the 2000 level (44.21%). The implementation of green policies in Chengdu is primarily reflected in improved UGS quality, especially in the stage of the ecological garden city construction (2008–2018). Specifically, the UGS quality in the original urban area has been improved by 25.25%. Overall, the UGS quality in Chengdu Urban Center has improved, changing from a medium level in 2000 to a medium-high level in 2022. The construction of a national demonstration zone of the park city provides an opportunity for the UGS quantity to increase and quality to improve in Chengdu in the future. However, effectively considering the development positioning of the Tianfu Granary to coordinate the relationship between UGS and high-quality farmland is a huge challenge for urban sustainable development in Chengdu.