bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Ignoring Environmental Change in Bykovskiy, Yakutia? Thawing Permafrost, Indigenous Knowledge and Modernization Ideologies in Northern Russia
Authors: Schweitzer Peter , Povoroznyuk Olga
Published: March 2021

The town of Tiksi and the nearby indigenous village of Bykovskiy are located in northern Yakutia, where the Lena River meets the Arctic Ocean. Both owe their existence to Soviet policies and development plans, one tied to the Northern Sea Route, and the other to a fishing enterprise based on the labor of political prisoners. Post-Soviet transformations since the 1990s have severely altered the economic base of these communities, typically resulting in social, cultural and economic shocks and hardships. At the same time, both communities are affected by environmental change, most visibly in Bykovskiy, where coastal erosion caused by permafrost thaw has been destructing the local graveyard and endangers the housing infrastructure.

Interestingly, when we conducted fieldwork there in 2019, our interlocutors seemed to pay very little attention to these environmental problems in the narratives they shared with us. While it might be tempting to accuse local residents of ignoring permafrost thaw and other environmental changes, the situation, we argue, is more complex. In fact, indigenous residents, especially, those making a living by practicing “traditional” activities, such as fishing and reindeer herding, have been observing extreme weather events, shifts in seasonal patterns, and changes in the behavior of land animals and fish for a long time. Similarly, to other parts of the Arctic, this accumulated traditional ecological knowledge has been helpful for adapting to the dramatically changing environment. At the same time, on the discursive and political level, this knowledge has been devalued or, at best, rated as a secondary source of information in relation to a more “advanced” institutionalized expert knowledge. Moreover, the Soviet modernization ideologies and discourses about human-environmental relations have impacted local knowledge, ethics and perceptions of the changing environment. This presentation calls for attention to historical and regional contexts and explores how hierarchical relations between different knowledge systems and how state modernization ideologies inform the ways in which indigenous communities in northern Russia relate to the effects of climate change today.
Implementation of a numerical methodology for the stochastic characterization of the Valdivia 1960 9.5 Mw tsunami source.
Authors: Cifuentes-Lobos Rodrigo , Calisto Ignacia , Saavedra Cristian , Ormeño Franchesca , San Martín Javiera , Fernandez Matías
Published: March 2021

Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) brings a variety of mathematical and numerical tools for evaluating long-term exposure to tsunami related hazards in coastal communities, within which the logic tree method stands out for its usefulness in generating random slip models and dealing with epistemic and aleatory uncertainties. Key items for the stochastic study of tsunami scenarios. This method, by combining parameters that define a source model (such as magnitude, and rupture limits), allows to create a vast number of random source models that, as well as they can be used for assessing future and long-term hazard, they can also be used in conjunction with data and observations obtained from past tsunamis and earthquakes in their study.

This study proposes a numerical methodology for the generation of random tsunami source models, based on the logic tree method, for studying paleo tsunamis and historical tsunamis. In this case this methodology will be tested with data from the great Valdivia 1960 9.5 Mw earthquake and tsunami. These random source models are then filtered using empirical relations between magnitudes and rupture dimensions or rupture aspect ratios. Those models that pass this filter are then used to compute deformation using the Okada, 1985 method. This deformation fields are filtered using geodetic data and observations associated with the event of interest, eliminating all models that doesn’t satisfy these observations. In contrast, all models that pass this filter, are used as inputs to model tsunami using a staggered scheme, first modelling with low resolution topobathymetry grids, in order to assess if tsunami waves are registered in locations that are known to have been inundated and eliminate the models that do not show this behaviour. And secondly, using the deformation models that satisfy this past filter as input, high resolution grids are used to model tsunami and appraise the estimated run up of inundations and compare it with reliable historical accounts and sedimentological observations. Those models that pass all the filters mentioned above, will be subjects to statistical analysis to compare them with existent models of the Valdivia 1960 earthquake.

As it was stated above, and due to the important number of published studies, data and historical accounts, and source models available, the Valdivia 1960 9.5 Mw earthquake will be used as a benchmark to test this methodology, in order to appraise the convergence of the random models that pass every filter to the existent source models. It is important to further specify that this methodology was designed to study historical and paleo tsunamis, and will only be tested with modern tsunamis, such as Valdivia 1960.
Sediment analysis and modelling reveal short inundation distances and low onshore flow speed of the 2018 Palu-Donggala tsunami in Indonesia
Authors: Switzer Adam D. , Majewski Jedrzej M. , Guan Rachel YS. , Benazir Benazir , Meilianda Ella , Parham Peter , Weiss Robert , Martin Stacy , Jordan Camille , Pilarczyk Jessica E. , Horton Benjamin P.
Published: March 2021

On 28 September 2018, a magnitude 7.5 earthquake struck north of Palu, Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. The earthquake generated a tsunami with inundation depths of up to 7.5 m and run-up of up to 10 m above sea level. Inundation distances were only partly topography dependent and reached less than 400 m inland even where terrain did not rise steeply beyond that point. A subsequent tsunami was generated by a combination of minor fault displacement and multiple submarine landslides. In places, co-seismic coastal subsidence of >1 m exacerbated the tsunami inundation. During a post-event field survey in November 2018, we sampled three transects for sediment analysis; two in Palu City and one on the eastern coast of Palu Bay. The tsunami deposits in Palu City are predominantly massive, fine- to medium-grained sand in thin layers (<5 cm) with patchy distribution of sediments. In contrast, sediments present near Pantoloan on the east coast of Palu Bay were coarser (medium- to coarse-grained sand), thicker (up to 12 cm) and more continuous. These tsunami deposits exhibited fining and thinning landwards, and are characterized by a continuous sand sheet that extends up to 250 m inland with few post depositional changes. The grain size ranges from coarse-grained sand to silty-fine-grained sand at the landward extent. The Pantoloan site also contained wave-transported blocks of sea wall weighing up to 4.7 t in addition to sandy deposits. The blocks together with grain size data suggest that water velocities reached 3 m.s-1 at more than 130 m from the coast. The tsunami deposits of Palu Bay generally exhibit sedimentological and stratigraphic characteristics shared by storm and tsunami deposits, which maybe be ascribed to the short wave length, relatively low power and short-term inundation of the tsunami and the limited availability of sediments in the nearshore environment.
A 400-year record of glaciomarine sedimentation associated with the dynamics of the Penny Ice Cap (Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada)
Authors: Rodríguez-Cuicas María-Emilia , Montero-Serrano Jean-Carlos , St-Onge Guillaume , Normandeau Alexandre
Published: March 2021

Climatological studies show that Baffin Island ice caps (Barnes and Penny) are highly sensitive to global climatic changes. However, there is little high temporal resolution data available to study the long-term response of Baffin Island ice caps to climate change. While most of the sedimentary climate records in the region are obtained from lake sediments, there is less information from glaciomarine sediments. High sedimentation rates that characterize fjords in glaciomarine environments make these sites ideal to study the impact of climate and oceanographic changes on tidewater glacier dynamics at high-temporal resolution. In this context, a piston core (AMD2019-804-12PC) recovered in the Coronation Fjord (Baffin Island, Nunavut, Canada) in an ice-proximal environment was investigated using physical, grain-size, mineralogical, geochemical, and magnetic properties to document changes in sediment transfers from the Penny Ice Cap (PIC) in relation to Late Holocene climate variability. The chronostratigraphic framework of this core was developed by combining AMS 14C and paleomagnetic analysis. The physical and sedimentological analysis show that core 12PC is characterized by laminated mud sediments interspersed with fine sand and disseminated ice-rafted debris (IRD). The biotite+chlorite-plagioclase-feldspar ternary diagram reveals a homogeneous detrital input with a composition characteristic of the Cumberland Batholith. These sedimentary characteristics are interpreted as a product of suspension settling and muddy density flows from turbid meltwater plumes related with the PIC dynamic. Results also reveal two lithofacies (LF) related with distinct glacial regimes. LF1 (601-280 cm; 1500-1800 AD), which covers the Little Ice Age period, is characterized by a high IRD content, below-average values in biotite+chlorite/quartz, low variations in Zr/Ti and Fe/Al, suggesting enhanced tidewater glacier discharge likely associated with the growth of the PIC. LF2 (280-0 cm; 1800 AD to present) is defined by a decrease in IRD content, above-average values in biotite+chlorite/quartz, and high variations in Zr/Ti and Fe/Al, interpreted as representing the retreat of the glacier to its present-day extent in response to modern warming. Similar trends observed between our detrital proxies and the Arctic surface air temperature anomalies, the chironomid-inferred summer-temperature from a nearby lake, and melt feature record from the PIC, suggest high connectivity between atmospheric temperatures variations and the sedimentary dynamics of the PIC during the last 400 years.
Spring Dust over the Tibetan Plateau and Connections with North Atlantic SST Variability
Authors: Xu Chao , Ma Yaoming , Ma Jiehua , You Chao , Wang Huijun
Published: March 2021

Dust is a major component of atmospheric aerosol worldwide, greatly affecting regional and global climate. A dust belt can be clearly found at altitudes higher than 6 km over the downwind direction of the TP at latitudes of around 30°–40°N, crossing the Pacific Ocean and extending to North America during spring. Dust is uplifted to the midtroposphere over the source regions; then, frequent, deep, dry convection prevailing over the TP during spring can cause convective overshooting that uplifts the dust aerosols to the upper troposphere. The TP thus acts as a channel for transporting dust from the lower atmosphere to the upper troposphere, enabling the long-range zonal transport of dust around the Northern Hemisphere. Estimated spring dust mass flux (DMF) showed a significant declining trend over the TP during 2007-2019. The total spring DMF across the TP was mainly affected by DMFs over the Tarim Basin, while the spring DMF across the TP in the mid-troposphere was also connected with DMFs over the northwest Indian Peninsula and Central Asia. Inter-annual variability of spring DMF across the TP was strongly correlated with the North Atlantic winter sea surface temperature (SST) tripole. The North Atlantic winter SST tripole anomalies persist into the subsequent spring, and induce a corresponding atmosphere response. A strong positive North Atlantic winter SST tripole anomaly strengthens the upper-level westerly jets, enhancing air flow towards the TP mid-troposphere; together, these circulation patterns cause anomalous cyclonic conditions in the lower troposphere, especially over the Tarim Basin, via the eastwards propagation of a Rossby wave train. These atmospheric circulation conditions are likely to increase the frequency of dust occurrence and promote the transport of dust onto the TP.
Mapping river recharge rates with stable isotopes and tritium-helium groundwater ages
Authors: Visser Ate , Foglia Laura , Dahlke Helen , Vankeuren Amelia , Kniffin Maribeth , Rodriguez Alisha , Calderwood Andrew , Fram Miranda , Deinhart Amanda , Oerter Erik , Dozier Jeff
Published: March 2021

While climate change will challenge the future of California’s water resources, groundwater can buffer variability in precipitation and streamflow, if managed sustainably. Enhanced river recharge is an important tool to reach sustainable groundwater management in the California Central Valley (USA). Understanding and predicting recharge rates of river water, either natural river bank infiltration or managed aquifer recharge (MAR) during floods (Flood-MAR) or on agricultural land (Ag-MAR) is essential to evaluate the sustainability of groundwater management plans. Groundwater ages, combined with other isotopic and noble gas evidence, can elucidate surface water-groundwater interactions and support river recharge rates calculations over longer time periods.

Our study is focused on the recharge from the Cosumnes River in the California Central Valley. The Cosumnes River forms the boundary between the Sacramento Valley groundwater basin to the north and the San Joaquin Valley groundwater basin to the south. For this study, 28 new samples were collected for the analysis of 3H/3He age, noble gases, and stable isotopes. 25 additional samples from the California Waterboards Groundwater Ambient Monitoring and Assessment (GAMA) Shallow Aquifer Assessment program were included, which were collected and analyzed by the USGS California Water Science Center in 2017.

We find that 28% of groundwater in the San Joaquin – Cosumnes groundwater subbasin originated as river water recharge, based on the interpolated mean δ18O (7.7 ‰ ), compared with river water (-9 ‰) and local precipitation recharge (-7 ‰) end-members. River water is a source of modern recharge, resulting in high tritium concentrations close to the Cosumnes River. In contrast, ambient groundwater from local precipitation recharge is predominantly pre-modern or fossil, containing less than 1 pCi/L tritium. Combining groundwater ages with the distance to the river, aquifer thickness, and porosity, estimates of river water recharge rate vary between 0.02 km3/yr and 0.035 km3/yr. These quantitative estimates of river water recharge will constrain the numerical groundwater flow model for this basin and aid groundwater managers in developing sustainability plans to balance groundwater pumping with recharge rates.
Paleofire, Vegetation, and Climate Reconstructions of the Middle to Late Holocene From Lacustrine Sediments of the Toushe Basin, Taiwan
Authors: Ma Chunmei , Huang Zhenhui
Published: March 2021

We identified four climatic stages between 6.2 and 1.3 cal kyr before present (BP) based on pollen and charcoal concentrations by high‐resolution Accelerated mass spectrometer (AMS) 14 C‐dated sediment profile from Taiwan's Toushe Basin. From 6.2 to 4.6 cal kyr BP, the region was warm‐wet with infrequent wildfires and dominant subtropical evergreen broad‐leaved forests. The climate was cooler‐drier from 4.6 to 3.0 cal kyr BP, with a decline in forest and increased fire frequency. From 3.0 to 2.1 cal kyr BP,climate further cooled and dried, with the development of alpine meadows and higher fire frequency. The region became warmer and wetter from 2.1 to 1.3 cal kyr BP, accompanied by forest recovery. Climatic changes were linked to changes in East Asia Summer Monsoon intensity,which is mainly controlled by solar radiation. Wildfires were likely controlled by precipitation variability that is influenced by East Asia Summer Monsoon and El Niño–Southern Oscillation. Toushe Basin experienced drought conditions and frequent wildfires during the El Niño years.
Tectonic History of Australia Preserved by Mantle Anisotropic Boundaries
Authors: Eakin Caroline
Published: March 2021

Australia is an old stable continent with a rich geological history. Limitations in sub-surface imaging below the Moho, however, mean that is unclear to what extent, and to what depth, this rich geological history is expressed in the mantle. Scattering of surface waves at ~150km depth by lateral gradients or boundaries in seismic anisotropy, termed Quasi-Love waves, offer potential new insights. The first such analysis for Australia and Zealandia is performed with over 300 new scatterers detected that display striking geographical patterns. Around two-thirds of the scatterers are coincident with either the continental margins, or major crustal boundaries within Australia, suggesting deep mantle roots to such features. Within the continental interior such lateral anisotropic gradients imply pervasive fossilized lithospheric anisotropy, on a scale that mirrors the crustal geology at the surface, and a strong lithosphere that preserves this signal over billions of years. Along the continental margins, lateral anisotropic gradients may indicate either the edge of the thick continental lithosphere, or small-scale dynamic processes in the asthenosphere, such as edge-drive convection, tied to the transition from oceanic to continental crust/lithosphere.
Quantitative analysis of the debris flow risk to concentrated rural settlement in southwest Sichuan, China
Authors: Wei Li , Hu Kaiheng
Published: March 2021

Sichuan Province in southwest China is highly susceptible to debris flow disasters and suffers much damage to buildings and loss of human lives in concentrated rural settlements each year. By combining geographic information system (GIS) and Deep Encoding Network (DE-Net) methods, we proposed an automatic identification method for buildings highly susceptible to debris flows with large-scale digital elevation data and high-resolution remote sensing imagery based on a vulnerability matrix containing different threshold values of the horizontal distance (HD) and vertical distance (VD) between buildings and channels. A case study in Puge County, Sichuan Province, demonstrated the high identification potential of the method for buildings susceptible to debris flows in large areas with only scarce information available. Meanwhile, We chose a high-risk village in Puge County to study debris flow risk to buildings and residents. Different types of days and diurnal periods were considered in the analysis of societal risk to residents. The results indicated that societal risk to residents on holidays is always higher than that on weekdays, and societal risk at night is also much higher than that in the daytime. The identification results of buildings vulnerability provide valuable information regarding high-risk residential areas to governments and facilitate targeted measure design at the initial planning stage, and the proposed method of societal risk provides a basis for decision-making in the planning of mitigation countermeasures in a specific settlement.
Benefits of Global Sensitivity Analysis and Reduced Order Modeling for Basin-Scale Process Simulations
Authors: Degen Denise , Cacace Mauro , Spooner Cameron , Scheck-Wenderoth Magdalena , Wellmann Florian
Published: March 2021

Geophysical process simulations pose several challenges including the determination of i) the rock properties, ii) the underlying physical process, and iii) the spatial and temporal domain that needs to be considered.

Often it is not feasible or impossible to include the entire complexity of the given application. Hence, we need to evaluate the consequences of neglecting certain processes, properties, etc. by using, for instance, sensitivity analyses. However, this evaluation is for basin-scale application non-trivial due to the high computational costs associated with them. These high costs arise from the high-dimensional character of basin-scale applications in the parameter, spatial, and temporal domain.

Therefore, this evaluation is often not performed or via computationally fast algorithms as, for example, the local sensitivity analysis. The problem with local sensitivity analyses is that they cannot account for parameter correlations. Thus, a global sensitivity analysis is preferential. Unfortunately, global sensitivity analyses are computationally demanding.

To allow the usage of global sensitivity analysis for a better evaluation of the changes in the influencing parameters, we construct in this work a surrogate model via the reduced basis method.

The reduced basis method is a model order reduction technique that is physics-preserving.  Hence, we are able to retrieve the entire state variable (i.e. temperature) instead of being restricted to the observation space.

To showcase the benefits of this methodology, we demonstrate with the Central European Basin System how the influences of the thermal rock properties change when moving from a steady-state to a transient system.

Furthermore, we use the case study of the Alpine Region to highlight the influences of the spatial distribution of measurements on the model response. This latter aspect is especially important since measurements are often used to calibrate and validate a given geological model. Thus, it is crucial to determine which amount of bias is introduced through our commonly unequal data distribution.
Observations of atmospheric iodine-containing species during the MOSAiC expedition
Authors: Kemppainen Deniz , Quéléver Lauriane , Beck Ivo , Laurila Tiia , Lampilahti Janne , Lampimäki Markus , Schmale Julia , Brasseur Zoé , Sipilä Mikko , Jokinen Tuija
Published: March 2021

The Arctic is a unique region featuring many environmental variations from a season to another. For example, sea ice is highly dynamic, with varying thickness and homogeneity, ultimately leading to open sea with a boost of biological activity during the warmest month. This, in turn, affects the emissions of gas-phase chemicals, potentially impacting New Particle Formation (NPF) and subsequent aerosol growth.

Several chemical vapors such as sulfuric acid (SA) and methane sulfonic acid (MSA) are known to possibly contribute to NPF and/or particle growth. Additionally, halogenated compounds, such as iodic acid, have recently revealed to be important for the formation of aerosol particles, especially in coastal and Arctic sites.

Few studies exist regarding direct measurements of iodic acid in the high Arctic, and none of them report multi-seasonal continuous observations - especially during the polar-night when the extremely low temperatures and the absence of solar radiation would likely prohibit any synthesis of such chemical species.

Here, we present our observations of iodine-containing vapors, principally iodic acid, as the result of continuous on-line measurements with the Nitrate based Chemical Ionization Atmospheric Pressure interface Time Of Flight Mass Spectrometer (NO3-CI-APi-TOF-MS) during the whole Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory of the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition. In this study we combine and examine iodic acid multi-seasonal concentration time series in the central Arctic. In short, we aim at characterizing the observed iodic acid with the central Arctic environmental conditions (e.g., meteorological conditions, sea ice features and trace gases) and the linkage to NPF and particle growth.

 
Neither Arctic nor Alpine: Snow Characterization in the low-Arctic Region of Nunavik, Canada
Authors: Lackner Georg , Domine Florent , Nadeau Daniel , Anctil Francois , Parent Annie-Claude
Published: March 2021

Snow is an integral part of high latitude regions and is highly affected by global warming. While high-Arctic snowpacks over herb tundra can be approximated by a two-layer structure formed of low-density depth hoar covered with a denser wind slab, low-Arctic snow over shrub tundra tends to be more complex with a greater variety of layers. Furthermore, a high interannual variability makes it difficult to characterize low-Arctic snow as its physical properties such as its height, density, and thermal conductivity fluctuate greatly from one year to another. 
In this study, we attempt to provide an overview of this interannual variability and its implications on the energy budget of the snow cover. For this purpose, we present multiple years of snow observations collected from automated stations and manual snow pits from a low-Arctic valley of northern Quebec, Canada (56°32'N 76°33'W). The experimental setup included a vertical array of continuous thermal conductivity and snow temperature measurements, combined with eddy covariance data to establish a full energy budget of the snow cover.
Snow height varied by a factor of two (0.7 m to 1.4 m) from one year to another with tremendous impact on the stratigraphy. In thick-snow years, the snowpack was more alpine-like, with density decreasing with height while in thin-snow years, the snowpack was more Arctic-like with an inverted density profile. This alpine-like snow effectively shielded the ground from the cold air temperature and the soil remained several degrees warmer than in other years. Heat fluxes above the snowpack, however, did not show differences between alpine-like snow and arctic-like snow. 
Impacts of long-range-transported Saharan dust layers on atmospheric stability and turbulence in the trades
Authors: Gutleben Manuel , Groß Silke , Wirth Martin
Published: March 2021

Aeolian Saharan mineral dust particles can be transported over long distances. Great amounts of Saharan mineral dust particles are transported westwards over the Atlantic Ocean towards the Caribbean islands especially during the boreal summer months. During the transport they can either have a direct environmental effect by absorbing, emitting and scattering radiation or an indirect effect by changing cloud micro-physical properties and by modifying cloud lifetime or formation.

Our recent studies indicate that elevated transported Saharan dust layers, so-called Saharan Air Layers (SALs), come along with enhanced concentrations of water vapor compared to the surrounding atmosphere. Radiative transfer simulations reveal that not the dust particles inside the SALs but the enhanced concentrations of water vapor play the dominant role for atmospheric heating in dust-laden subtropical regions. In this way water vapor has the potential to impact both atmospheric stability and turbulent properties not only inside the SALs but also at lower atmospheric levels.  To study the effects of water vapor on atmospheric turbulence and stability in SAL-regions, we performed wavelet analyses as well as calculations of power spectra on the basis of airborne lidar backscatter and water vapor measurements by the DLR lidar system WALES during the NARVAL-II research campaign. For an in-depth investigation of SAL-properties, several research flights during NARVAL-II were designed to lead over dust-laden regions upstream the Caribbean island of Barbados. Our analysis shows that water vapor heating does not only have an effect on the stability and turbulence of SALs by maintaining their confining inversions and promoting vertical mixing in their interior, but also hinders the development of shallow marine convection below.

In our presentation we will give an overview of the performed measurements and radiative transfer simulations as well as of the conducted stability and turbulence analyses by means of calculated power spectra and wavelet analyses.
Cost-benefit analysis of alternatives to mitigate the air quality and health impacts from agricultural residue burning in India
Authors: Lan Ruoyu , Eastham Sebastian , Norford Leslie , Barrett Steven
Published: March 2021

Poor air quality in India affects the health of millions living in one of the most populated regions in the world. Agricultural residue burning as a common way to remove crop waste and make fields for the next planting season contributes to this problem and, despite attempts to reduce agricultural fires, remains a recurring issue due to a lack of viable alternatives. As India population grows, more food production will be needed, with yet more crop residue to burn. Sustainable and economically feasible interventions are therefore needed to mitigate the impact of agricultural residue burning. To support policy-making, an adjoint modeling approach has been applied to estimate how air quality and health impacts respond to changes in specific time and location of burning, and how effective potential mitigation options might be in reducing them.

This work extends based upon these initial findings and seeks to provide a cost-benefit analysis of alternatives to agricultural residue burning using the GEOS-Chem adjoint model. With a multi-year assessment that accounts for the impact of inter-annual variability of meteorology, the public cost presented in terms of the monetary valuation of air quality damages resulting from population exposure and health impacts due to emissions of agricultural burning,  and the private returns presented in terms of the individual profit from crop cultivation for farmers in India, are quantified in order to better understand the potential trade-offs between air quality improvement and economic benefit.

The end results focusing on northwestern India during the post-monsoon rice residue burning season, where the majority of agricultural fires in India come from, show that appropriate measures, including crop diversification, agricultural mechanization and shifting the time of burning, may help avoid air quality damages from agricultural residue burning without risking the income of farmers. Proper incentive mechanisms such as subsidies for investment cost and compensation for human effort may further facilitate the best possible outcomes. These findings help inform better decision-making to mitigate the impacts of agricultural fires and reduce the uncertainties regarding sustainable agricultural practices not just for India but also for regions and countries facing similar issues.
The GEOframe system: a modular, expandible, open-source system for doing hydrology by computer according to the open science paradigms.
Authors: Rigon Riccardo , Bancheri Marialaura , Formetta Giuseppe , Serafin Francesco , Bottazzi Michele , Tubini Niccolò , D'Amato Concetta
Published: March 2021

The scope of this work is to present new insights of the GEOframe system. GEOframe is an open-source, semi-distributed, component-based hydrological modeling system. It is developed in Java and in Python and based on the environmental modeling framework Object Modeling System V3 (OMS3). Each part of the hydrological cycle is implemented in a self-contained building block, commonly called component. Components can be joined together to obtain multiple modeling solutions that can accomplish from simple to very complicated tasks. More than 50 components are available for the estimation of all the variables of the hydrological cycle. Starting from the geomorphic and DEM analyses, GEOframe allows the spatial interpolation of the meteorological forcing data, the simulation of the radiation budget, the estimation of the ET and of the snow processes. Runoff production is performed by using the Embedded Reservoir Model (ERM) or a combination of its reservoirs. Model parameters can be calibrated using two algorithms and several objective functions. The graph-based structure, called NET3, is employed for the management of process simulations. NET3 is designed using a river network/graph structure analogy, where each HRU is a node of the graph, and the channel links are the connections between the nodes. In any NET3 node, a different modeling solution can be implemented and nodes (HRUs or channels) can be connected or disconnected at run time through scripting.  Thanks to its solid informatics infrastructure and physical base, GEOframe proved a great flexibility and a great robustness in several applications, from small to big scale catchments. GEOframe is open source, is chain of development is based on open source products, and its codes are engineered to be inspectionable. This because it helps the reproducibility and replicability of research. Developers and users can easily collaborate, share documentation, and archive examples and data within the GEOframe community. We believe that these are a priori condition to verify the reliability and the robustness of models. GEOframe modular structure allows for the fair comparison of model structure units and algorithms implementations because just the component performing that specific task has to be changed. In this contribution we list the components available and discuss some applications at different scales whit different modeling tools which return what we think realistic results. We show that there exist no perfect model of a process but that the modelling art and science can  be made more evolutionary even when they are revolutionary. 
High and low- latitude forcing of East Asian monsoon precipitation change during the late Pliocene
Authors: Wang Hansheng , Nie Junsheng , Luo Zeng
Published: March 2021

3.6 Ma represents a time period when Earth transitioned from single pole ice sheets to permanent ice sheets existing in both hemispheres. However, it remains unclear how this transition had its impact on East Asian summer monsoon system, which controls living of a large population. Here, we present a high-resolution (2~4 kyr) monsoon precipitation record from the Chaona section on the central Chinese Loess Plateau during the 3.95-2.95 Ma, using the magnetic parameter-based precipitation proxy (χfd/HIRM). The results reveal intensified precessional and semiprecessional fluctuations during high eccentricity, emphasizing direction role of low latitude insolation played in forcing Asian monsoon precipitation. The precipitation records also show that the 41-kyr cycles intensified after 3.3 Ma, in contrast with decreased obliquity variation amplitude of summer insolation. We interpret the enlarged 41-kyr precipitation cycles in our records as a result of high latitude ice sheet forcing. Together, our work provides an example demonstrating both high and low latitude forcing of Asian monsoon precipitation during the late Pliocene.
Evolution of recently deglaciated high mountain landforms in the Eastern Anatolia
Authors: Azzoni Roberto Sergio , Bollati Irene , Pelfini Manuela , Sarıkaya Mehmet Akif , Zerboni Andrea
Published: March 2021

High mountain environments and especially proglacial systems, which are areas defined by subtracting modern glacier outlines from Little Ice Age (LIA) limits, are among the most dynamic geomorphic contexts on Earth. They are extremely sensitive to ongoing climate change and its consequences are especially intense – yet relatively poorly investigated – at middle-low latitudes, as in the case of the circum-Mediterranean mountainous contexts. This area (excluding the Alps) encompasses recently deglaciated ground from the borders of the Mediterranean Sea and comprises more than hundred ice bodies dramatically receding since their LIA extension. Most of these glaciers are completely disappeared leaving extensive proglacial areas, which differs from those described in the Alps for the timing and types of ongoing processes. Here, we present and discuss the unique characteristics of such dynamic proglacial contexts, focusing on recently deglaciated high mountain areas of Southeast Turkey that are affected by fast geomorphological evolution tuned by their specific climatic and geological settings. We compare two areas differing for climatic, structural, and lithological settings: i) the Mount Ararat/Ağrı Dağı (5137 m a.s.l.), a stratovolcano, and ii) the Cilo mountain range (up to 4116 m a.s.l.), characterized by a limestone bedrock. Since the LIA, the two areas underwent different trajectories of evolution and different rates of geomorphic processes. High-resolution satellite data from Pleiades and SPOT 6 platforms permit to investigate the overprint of specific local factors (volcanism, tectonic, and topography) on climate-driven surface evolution explains the specific evolution of each proglacial area.
Hydraulic diversity stabilizes forest productivity in a large-scale subtropical tree biodiversity experiment
Authors: Schnabel Florian , Liu Xiaojuan , Kunz Matthias , Barry Kathryn E. , Bongers Franca J. , Bruelheide Helge , Fichtner Andreas , Härdtle Werner , Li Shan , Pfaff Claas-Thido , Schmid Bernhard , Schwarz Julia A. , Tang Zhiyao , Yang Bo , Bauhus Jürgen , von Oheimb Goddert , Ma Keping , Wirth Christian
Published: March 2021

Extreme climatic events such as droughts threaten forests and their climate mitigation potential globally. Stability, the ability of forests to maintain functioning in periods of stress, is therefore expected to be a primary focus of forest management in the 21st century. A key management strategy suggested for enhancing stability may be to increase tree species richness in secondary and plantation forests. Here, we aim to understand the drivers that may promote forest stability in mixed-species tree communities. We use structural equation models to explain how tree species richness, asynchronous species dynamics and diversity in hydraulic traits affect the stability of yearly forest productivity along an experimentally manipulated biodiversity gradient ranging from monocultures up to mixtures of 24 tree species. Tree species richness improved stability by increasing species asynchrony. That is, at higher species richness, inter-annual variation in productivity among tree species buffered the community against stress-related productivity declines. This effect was mediated by diversity in species’ hydraulic traits in relation to drought tolerance and stomatal control within the community, but not by the community-weighted means of these hydraulic traits. The examined hydraulic traits may be used to select suitable tree species and design mixtures that stabilize productivity in an increasingly variable climate through diverse response strategies, while excluding those that would succumb to drought or competition. The identified mechanisms by which tree species richness stabilizes forest productivity emphasize the importance of hydraulically diverse, mixed-species forests to adapt to climate change.
Assessing the contribution of multiple forcings to changes in temperature extremes 1981–2020 using CMIP6 climate models
Authors: Engdaw Mastawesha Misganaw , Ballinger Andrew , Hegerl Gabriele , Steiner Andrea
Published: March 2021

In this study, we aim at quantifying the contribution of different forcings to changes in temperature extremes over 1981–2020 using CMIP6 climate model simulations. We first assess the changes in extreme hot and cold temperatures defined as days below 10% and above 90% of daily minimum temperature (TN10 and TN90) and daily maximum temperature (TX10 and TX90). We compute the change in percentage of extreme days per season for October-March (ONDJFM) and April-September (AMJJAS). Spatial and temporal trends are quantified using multi-model mean of all-forcings simulations. The same indices will be computed from aerosols-, greenhouse gases- and natural-only forcing simulations. The trends estimated from all-forcings simulations are then attributed to different forcings (aerosols-, greenhouse gases-, and natural-only) by considering uncertainties not only in amplitude but also in response patterns of climate models. The new statistical approach to climate change detection and attribution method by Ribes et al. (2017) is used to quantify the contribution of human-induced climate change. Preliminary results of the attribution analysis show that anthropogenic climate change has the largest contribution to the changes in temperature extremes in different regions of the world.

Keywords: climate change, temperature, extreme events, attribution, CMIP6

 

Acknowledgement: This work was funded by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF) under Research Grant W1256 (Doctoral Programme Climate Change: Uncertainties, Thresholds and Coping Strategies)
A combined Langmuir Probe – fluxgate magnetometer sensor design for Comet Interceptor
Authors: De Keyser Johan , Ranvier Sylvain , Maes Jeroen , Pawlak Jordan , Neefs Eddy , Dhooghe Frederik , Auster Uli , Chares Bernd , Edberg Niklas , Fredriksson Jesper , Eriksson Anders , Henri Pierre , Le Duff Olivier , Peterson Joakim
Published: March 2021

The in situ characterization of space plasmas requires an instrument suite for the measurement of the magnetic and electric fields and waves and of the plasma populations, with the field instruments typically being mounted on booms. This can be a tall order, especially for small planetary science missions, so that one has to seek simplifications. In the context of the Comet Interceptor mission, we have designed a combined sensor that consists of a hollow spherical Langmuir probe that harbors a fluxgate magnetometer at its center. Special precautions have been taken to minimize the possible interference between both, while at the same time being very lightweight. An engineering model has been built and is tested and characterized in detail. Such a combined sensor, together with a companion Langmuir probe, provides data regarding magnetic and electric fields and waves, total ion and electron densities and electron temperature, as well as the ambient nanodust population. It can form the core of an in situ plasma characterization package and offers reference data for the other sensors, such as magnetic field direction, spacecraft potential and total plasma density at high cadence.
The Mini Buoy: a novel hydrodynamics sensor for long-term deployments in coastal wetlands
Authors: Ladd Cai , Vovides Alejandra , Schwarz Christian , Chmura Gail , Basyuni Mohammad , Maza María , Balke Thorsten
Published: March 2021

Hydrological monitoring is crucial for management and research in coastal wetlands. However, long-term monitoring is scarce due to the high cost of conventional hydrological equipment. The development of open-source and low-power sensors over the past decade presents an opportunity for enabling long-term, high spatial resolution monitoring of hydrodynamics in the intertidal zone. Here, we present the design, calibration, and application of one such sensor: the Mini Buoy. The Mini Buoy is a battery-powered accelerometer and data logger, contained in a standard centrifuge tube. The Mini Buoy floats upright when inundated, and moves freely about a tether anchored to the substrate. Acceleration is measured along a single axis of the buoy, and motion along the axis is used to measure inundation, currents, and waves. Deployments of up to 6 months are possible, and the buoy can measure current and wave orbital velocities as low as 0.05 m/s. Mini Buoys cost less than €350 to assemble, and the materials are globally available. We present the successful application of Mini Buoys in four contrasting scenarios: (1) characterising waves under calm and stormy conditions; (2) linking saltmarsh erosion-expansion patterns with hydrological exposure; (3) identifying high-resolution spatial variability of waves and currents along a saltmarsh edge; and (4) assessing the suitability of former aquaculture ponds for mangrove restoration. Mini Buoys are also being deployed along mangrove fringes across Vietnam, India, and Bangladesh, in order to detect thresholds in hydrodynamic forcing responsible for triggering erosion or progradation events. Mini Buoys offer an exciting and novel tool for coastal management worldwide.
Predictability of the stratospheric polar vortex in the ECMWF S2S reforecasts
Authors: Wu Rachel Wai-Ying , Domeisen Daniela I.V.
Published: March 2021

Extreme stratospheric events, e.g strong vortex events and sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events, are often the main focus of stratospheric predictability studies. Other than strong vortex and SSW events, strong vortex acceleration and deceleration events are related but less studied events. A better understanding of the mechanisms of acceleration and deceleration events would also contribute to the understanding of SSWs and strong vortex events in the stratosphere. As SSWs tend to be less predictable than strong vortex events, it is hypothesized that the predictability of acceleration and deceleration events might differ as they are related to opposite mechanisms. We identify wind acceleration and deceleration events using the daily mean of the zonal mean zonal winds at 60°N and 10 hPa from the ERA-interim reanalysis for the winters of 1998/99-2018/19. Acceleration and deceleration events are defined as a wind change over a 10-day window above the 60th percentile of the magnitude of all identified events. To evaluate the predictability of the events, the ECMWF S2S hindcasts are verified against ERA-interim data. As expected, the predictability of the events increases with decreasing lead time (as the model initialisation date approaches the event onset date). We also find that all 4 types of events, namely acceleration, deceleration, strong vortex and SSW events, show the same predictability behavior, that is, that the predictability of an event is independent of its nature but dependent only on its magnitude. We discuss the difficulties of the model in predicting events associated with strong wind changes by investigating the heat flux-wind relationship in the model. A better understanding of the predictability and dynamical variability in the stratospheric polar vortex by the model could provide a better understanding of the mechanisms of stratospheric events, thus potentially also improving surface weather predictability.
Spatial planning and flood risk: The case of the Buna River, Shkoder, Albania
Authors: Krymbi Ervis , Rustja Dritan
Published: March 2021

In the last years, Albania underwent a rapid development, which resulted in an uncontrolled building boom and general land degradation. For these reasons, an ever-greater portion of the Albanian population is exposed to natural risks, whose major threats are represented by floods and earthquakes. Spatial planning and hydraulic risk management are a worldwide necessity which is best achieved when natural and artificial elements located closely to watercourses are known in detail. A geodatabase is a practical tool to store and manage such information. Land use and land cover changes have negative consequences on watershed management in Buna River Basin. They increase impervious ground surfaces, decrease infiltration rate and increase runoff rate, hence causing flood during the dry seasons. This study was undertaken to achieve the natural and artificial elements connected to hydraulic risk and fluvial dynamics in Buna River. Through a GIS overlay and GPS measurements where mapped elements include buildings, hydraulic works, weirs, drainage outlets, riverbanks, structural damages, fluvial bars and eroding banks. Consequently, a GIS geo database was built to visualize the spatial distribution of the mapped elements and to store a series of technical data, including the present preservation condition for man-made objects. GPS data was integrated in GIS to examine the extent of land use and cover change in the sub catchment of Buna River. Both quantitative and qualitative data were used for this study.  The geo database provides an overview of the territories connected with the fluvial dynamics, highlighting that in the studied territory; the more is urbanized, the more it is exposed to hydraulic risk.

Key word; spatial planning, natural hazards, relief drill, Buna river, Shkoder.