bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
How Could Lake-Effect Snow Storms Evolve in a Warming Future Climate?
Authors: Kayastha Miraj , Xue Pengfei , Huang Chenfu , Wang Jiali , Yang Zhao , Pringle William , Chakraborty Tirthankar , Qian Yun , Hetland Robert
Published: March 2024

When cold, dry air travels over a relatively warmer lake, lake-effect snow (LES) develops due to an increase in moisture flux from the lake to the atmosphere, which in turn promotes cloud formation and subsequent precipitation. A destructive LES storm struck the Buffalo region in New York, from November 17-20, 2022. Buffalo, located at the eastern end of Lake Erie and subject to winter winds that sweep across the lake, was inundated with nearly 7 feet of snow, prompting the declaration of federal emergencies by multiple counties. The LES storm highlighted the need for at-risk communities to enhance their preparedness for comparable future incidents. Using a cloud-resolving 4 km scale, we investigated how such an LES storm might manifest in a warmer future climate by employing the Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) method and a two-way coupled lake-atmosphere regional climate modeling system. The modeling system comprises a two-way coupled Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and a Finite Volume Community Ocean Model (FVCOM)-based three-dimensional lake model. Under the PGW methodology, the future atmospheric forcing necessary for our regional climate modeling system was derived from a reanalysis climate dataset by incorporating projected atmospheric changes from a variety of CMIP6 earth system models. Furthermore, we integrated the warming signals in the lakes by utilizing the projected lake conditions obtained from a regional climate modeling system that was previously established and also incorporated an FVCOM-based lake model. According to our findings, the total storm precipitation for such an event by the end of this century could increase by 14% under a high-emission scenario, with an increase in rainfall at the expense of snowfall. Under the present-day climate conditions, snowfall was the primary type of precipitation experienced during the event. However, in a warmer future climate, the distribution of precipitation might be nearly equal between snowfall and rainfall. By conducting two additional simulations in which either the lake or atmosphere is warmed individually using the projected future conditions, we found that the warmer lakes primarily contributed to the increase in storm precipitation through increased evaporation, while the warmer atmosphere primarily influenced the form of storm precipitation during such an LES storm in the future.
Application of fuzzy logic for water supply forecasting in three Andean catchments of central Chile
Authors: Maldonado Daniela , Vargas Ximena , Mendoza Pablo
Published: March 2024

Understanding the availability and distribution of water resources is crucial for efficient management. Chilean basins in the northern and central regions typically exhibit characteristics of a snow or mixed regime, with snowmelt runoff being the primary source of supply. Industries such as mining, agriculture and hydroelectric power generation experience peak demand during the snowmelt period. Determining the average and monthly distribution of runoff during this period is essential for effective planning.Currently, both public and private institutions perform forecasts to provide valuable information to diverse users, including farmers and hydroelectric companies. This research aims to enhance the snowmelt forecast in snow-dominated or mixed basins integrating hydrometeorological forecasts and system states into a fuzzy model. The study focuses on the Choapa en Cuncumén, Maipo en el Manzano and Tinguiririca Bajo los Briones rivers.The methodology establishes relationships between system inputs, such as precipitation, snow cover and temperature, and the output variable of snowmelt runoff. Using membership functions and fuzzy rules, the model is developed based on observations collected over fifteen-year period. The performance of each model is evaluated with the commonly employed metrics, through sensitivity analysis and cross- validation. A subsequent comparison with existing models allows us to draw conclusions about the effectiveness of fuzzy models in predicting snowmelt runoff.The simulation yield Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) values exceeding 0.5 in the first two basins and close to 0.4 in the last one, indicating an acceptable forecast relative to those produced by other institutions. This underscores varying model performance across the three basins, contingent on specific conditions and dependencies on model inputs. While a successful calibration is achieved, a detailed examination of water rights and streamflow naturalization, particularly in basins where this value holds significance, is essential.
Insight Education : When highschool students and teachers are involved in the science team.
Authors: Berenguer Jean Luc , Saliby Christelle , Balestra Julien
Published: March 2024

InSight (Interior Exploration using Seismic Investigations, Geodesy and Heat Transport) is a discovery program, lead by NASA, that has landed a single lander on Mars and other sensors, such as a seismometer, a heat flow probe, and more others sensors that provided a lot of data.The main payload is the seismometer called SEIS, that is the first seismometer (after Viking fail) to record signal with a very deep precision. The goal of this mission is to investigate the dynamics of Martian tectonic activity and understand all the processes that shaped the Red Planet.Students were able to benefit from the data recorded by SEIS, and transmitted, with little delay, to schools by the science team. In this presentation, we will show all the practical activities done with kids, teens and students in France and other countries during the space mission (2018-2022).This work has been done by a French team of teachers, in international cooperation with others countries (with UK, USA, Switzerland, Spain, Romania ...) and can be found on this specific website: https://insight.oca.eu As the InSight mission draws to a close, a survey was conducted within the Education community to assess the impact of such an education component in a research programme.
Detection and attribution of non-stationarity of flood characteristics across the Peninsular Basins of India
Authors: K.v. Anju , V.v. Srinivas
Published: March 2024

The global hydrological cycle is substantially influenced by climate change, leading to notable alterations in hydroclimatic extremes. This encompasses extreme precipitation and temperature events, ultimately amplifying the frequency and intensity of floods. Analyzing the trends in floods and the related covariates provides insight into regional patterns of flood changes and shifts in flood generation mechanisms within the selected catchments. An improved understanding of the processes driving the historical changes in this natural hazard can provide basic information to enhance our preparation and mitigation efforts. Differences in significant trends (non-stationarities) in the magnitude and frequency of flood-related characteristics are determined for the river basins of Peninsular India through analysis of AMS (Annual Maximum Series) and POT (Peaks Over Threshold) series of streamflow over the period 1979–2019. Scrutiny of the trend detection results provided a better understanding of the strengths and limitations of AMS and PDS approaches in analyzing flood characteristics. Non-stationarity in the flood peaks is attributed to precipitation and temperature dynamics. This is accomplished by developing Generalised Pareto regression models to establish a relationship between the flood peaks and basin-averaged precipitation and temperature at different time scales preceding the flood events. Our findings emphasize the importance of understanding climatic conditions driving flood events and incorporating the same for assessing hydroclimatic risks with changing climate patterns, ultimately fostering more resilient and sustainable strategies.
Measuring Magnetic Fields of Coronal Mass Ejection in Corona and Inner Heliosphere using Wide Field of View Spectro-polarimetric Radio Imaging
Authors: Kansabanik Devojyoti , Oberoi Divya , Vourlidas Angelos , Mondal Surajit
Published: March 2024

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the strongest drivers of space weather. Measurements of the plasma parameters of CMEs, particularly magnetic fields entrained in the CME plasma, are crucial to understand their propagation, evolution, and geo-effectiveness. Spectral modeling of gyrosynchrotron (GS) emission from CME plasma has long been regarded as one of the most promising remote observation techniques for estimating spatially resolved CME plasma parameters. However, imaging the very low flux density CME GS emission in close proximity to the Sun with orders of magnitude higher flux density, has proven to be rather challenging. This challenge has only recently been met using the combination of data from the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) and the recently developed spectropolarimetric snapshot imaging pipeline optimized for this data (P-AIRCARS). This has now brought routine detection of GS within reach, and the next challenge to be overcome is that of constraining the large number of free parameters in GS models. A few of these parameters are degenerate, and need to be constrained using the limited number of spectral measurements typically available. We present studies of spectropolarimetric modeling GS emissions from two different CMEs, which establish that these degeneracies can be broken using polarimetric imaging. However, this methodology is only useful to measure CME magnetic fields up to ~10 R๏. At  higher coronal heights and inner heliosphere CME magnetic fields can be estimated by measuring Faraday rotation of linearly polarized galactic/extragalactic radio sources. This method has been used using small field of view (FoV) instruments at high frequency (e.g., VLA) to measure magnetic fields along a single line of sight (LoS). We have recently started exploring the FR measurements due to CME using the MWA. The  advantage of using the MWA is its wide FoV and lower observing frequency. Lower observing frequency provides sensitivity to smaller magnetic fields. At the same time, wide FoV will provide simultaneous measurements along multiple LoSs and enable estimation of vector magnetic fields by constraining empirical flux-rope models of CMEs.  We present the challenges which need to be overcome to achieve these goals and some initial results.  
Climate change and anthropogenic stresses on the sediment load variation in the Western Ghat Rivers
Authors: Das Sumit , Scaringi Gianvito , Ali Yunus , Narayana Allu Chinna
Published: March 2024

Rivers globally experiencing a regime shift in sediment load during the Anthropocene. Substantial alterations in sediment transport patterns were also reported in fluvial systems of Indian Peninsula, attributed mainly to the climate change and human activities. This study focuses on small-sized rivers originating from the Western Ghats, flowing over 50 km and debouching into the Arabian Sea with two major objectives: (i) identifying factors governing temporal changes in sediment load over recent decades, and (ii) to evaluate the potential geomorphic and ecological implications to the fluvial settings. To address these inquiries, hydro-meteorological data (discharge, suspended sediment concentration, and rainfall) from the Central Water Commission (CWC) and the India Meteorological Department (IMD) spanning from the mid-1970s to 2018 were examined. Various statistical methods such as the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, Pettitt test, and double mass plot were employed to recognize trends, abrupt changes, and the interplay of climate and human activities. Results reveals a temporal variation of sediment load in most studied rivers unfolds in four significant episodes: (i) pre-dam construction before 1985, (ii) a phase marked by an equilibrium between rapid deforestation and dam construction during 1985-1995, (iii) reduced deforestation coupled with swift dam construction from 1995 to 2010, and (iv) a relatively stable period post-dam construction since 2010.   Our findings also show a declining trend in sediment load for all the southern rivers of Kerala. Nevertheless, it was found that Netravati, Chaliyar, Bharathapuzha, and Periyar rivers emerge as the leading contributors of sediment to the Arabian Sea among the 18 rivers studied.  This system response has wider implications, including effective management of water resources, sedimentation control, and understanding the ecological responses within the Western Ghats, influencing both human communities and biodiversity in the region.
Polar Twins: Glacial CO2 outgassing reduced in the Southern Ocean by upwelling of well-ventilated waters from the North Pacific 
Authors: Shankle Madison , MacGilchrist Graeme , Gray William , de Lavergne Casimir , Menviel Laurie , Burke Andrea , Rae James
Published: March 2024

The Southern Ocean is widely thought to have played a driving role in the atmospheric CO2 fluctuations of the ice ages, ventilating carbon-rich deep waters to the atmosphere during interglacial periods and limiting this CO2 leakage during glacial periods. A more efficient Southern Ocean biological pump during glacial periods is one of the leading hypotheses for how this “leak” might have been stemmed, but the exact dynamics responsible are still debated. Previous hypotheses have invoked reduced upwelling and/or enhanced stratification in reducing the carbon and nutrient supply to the glacial Southern Ocean surface, thus enhancing the net efficiency of its biological pump. Here we consider an alternative, complementary scenario in which the nutrient and carbon content of the upwelled water itself is reduced. Noting the striking similarity between proxy records from the North Pacific and Southern Ocean over the Last Glacial Cycle and given that carbon-rich waters upwelling in the Southern Ocean today are largely fed by the North Pacific, we propose that low-carbon/nutrient glacial Southern Ocean surface waters could have been sourced from a well-ventilated, low-carbon/nutrient glacial North Pacific. We then show in intermediate-complexity Earth system model simulations how a well-ventilated North Pacific can directly reduce the outgassing potential of waters upwelled in the Southern Ocean. While not precluding the possibility of changes to upwelling or mixing, our results demonstrate the ability of changes in the upwelled waters’ carbon content – outside of any changes to Southern Ocean physical dynamics (e.g., upwelling rate) – to change Southern Ocean carbon content and outgassing. This provides a novel mechanism linking Northern Hemisphere climate to Southern Ocean carbon cycling and may thus help explain the cyclic CO2 variations of the ice ages.
Tectonic and exhumation history of the Albanian Dinarides orogenic belt
Authors: Rossetti Francesca , Fellin Maria Giuditta , Ballato Paolo , Faccenna Claudio , Balestrieri Maria Laura , Muceku Bardhyl , Durmishi Cercis , Crosetto Silvia , Bazzucchi Chiara
Published: March 2024

The orogenic belt of the Albanian Dinarides in the central-eastern Mediterranean results from the eastward subduction of the Adriatic microplate beneath Eurasia since the Early Cretaceous. The belt exhibits compression in the west, at the front of the wedge, and extension in the east, in the internal sector, and consist of NW-SE oriented geological domains that record a long and polyphasic evolution. In the Cretaceous, the obduction of Mid Jurassic ophiolite was followed by continental subduction that in the Eocene led to the development of a flexed foreland in the external Meso-Cenozoic platform-basin system. The progressive migration of the deformation is recorded in the westward decrease of the depositional age of syn-orogenic deposits. Tectono-stratigraphic evidence suggests the development of a W-verging fold-and-thrust belt emplaced along an evaporite decollement level, possibly from the Late Cretaceous in the internal domain to Early Miocene in the outermost unit. To investigate the evolution of the Albanian Dinarides, such as the timing of deformation and the spatiotemporal pattern of exhumation, structural geological, stratigraphic and thermochronological data have been integrated. Here we present our first apatite (U-Th)/He (AHe) and fission track (AFT) ages. Within the eastern, extensional domain, fully reset AHe ages from Permian granites range from 12 to 18 Ma. In the western units, where compressional deformation is dominant, AHe ages from Eocene to Early Miocene syn-orogenic sediments vary in space: to the east, they cluster in the range of 5 to 2.5 Ma, and to the west, they scatter over a large range older than 5 Ma. All AFT ages scatter between the Early Miocene and the Late Cretaceous.Altogether the cooling ages show a large-scale pattern characterized by a broad zone of young ages with no clear relation to the southwestward propagation of the fold-and-thrust belt, suggesting a mechanism of reactivation of the system during the Late Miocene-Pliocene. These processes contribute to an amount of exhumation that likely does not exceed approximately 3 km. In this framework, future studies will be essential to integrate the available deep seismic information with surface data, in order to develop a model capable of identifying the mechanisms responsible for the exhumation processes of the Albanian Dinarides.
Solar Wind Speed Estimation via Symbolic Knowledge Extraction from Opaque Models
Authors: Sabbatini Federico , Grimani Catia
Published: March 2024

The unprecedented predictive capabilities of machine learning models make them inestimable tools to perform data forecasting and other complex tasks. Benefits of these predictors are even more precious when there is the necessity of surrogating unavailable data due to the lack of dedicated instrumentation on board space missions. For instance, the future ESA space interferometer LISA for low-frequency gravitational wave detection will host, as part of its diagnostics subsystem, particle detectors to measure the galactic cosmic-ray flux and magnetometers to monitor the magnetic field intensity in the region of the interferometer mirrors. No instrumentation dedicated to the interplanetary medium parameter monitoring will be placed on the three spacecraft constituting the LISA constellation. However, important lessons about the correlation between galactic cosmic-ray flux short-term variations and the solar wind speed profile have been learned with the ESA LISA precursor mission, LISA Pathfinder, orbiting around the L1 Lagrange point. In a previous work, we have demonstrated that for LISA Pathfinder it was possible to reconstruct with an uncertainty of 2 nT the interplanetary magnetic field intensity for interplanetary structure transit monitoring. Machine learning models are proposed here to infer the solar wind speed that is not measured on the three LISA spacecraft from galactic cosmic-ray measurements. This work is precious and necessary since LISA, scheduled to launch in 2035, will trail Earth on the ecliptic at 50 million km distance, too far from the orbits of other space missions dedicated to the interplanetary medium monitoring to benefit of their observations.We built an interpretable machine learning predictor based on galactic cosmic-ray and interplanetary magnetic field observations to obtain a solar wind speed reconstruction within ±65 km s-1 of uncertainty. Interpretability is achieved by applying the CReEPy symbolic knowledge extractor to the outcomes of a k-NN regressor. The extracted knowledge consists of linear equations aimed at describing the solar wind speed in terms of four statistical indices calculated for the input variables.Details about the model workflow, performance and validation will be presented at the conference, together with the advantages, drawbacks and possible future enhancements, to demonstrate that our model may provide the LISA mission with an effective and human-interpretable tool to carry out reliable solar wind speed estimates and recognise the transit of interplanetary structures nearby the LISA spacecraft, as a support to the data analysis activity for the monitoring of the external forces acting on the spectrometer mirrors.
Slab pull drives IBM Trench advance despite the weakened Philippine Sea Plate
Authors: Jian Huizi , Yang Ting
Published: March 2024

The Izu-Bonin-Mariana (IBM) subduction zone has one of the most significant advancing trenches on Earth, but the mechanism responsible for its trench advance remains in dispute. Slab pull from the Ryukyu subduction zone may have provided the main driver for this significant trench advance. However, it is unclear whether this slab-pull force can transmit through the weak zones, such as the young Shikoku and Parece Vela basins, the active Izu-Bonin rifts, and the continuous spreading Mariana Trough, and then act on the IBM trench. To figure out this issue, we conduct slab subduction numerical models to reproduce the spatio-temporal tectonic evolution of the Philippine Sea Plate. Model results show that the stretching rate of 2.5 cm/yr during rifting/spreading represents the critical threshold for the transmission of slab pull. Additionally, the lithospheric strengthening and weakening effects cancel out each other during the rift stage so that the slab pull from the Ryukyu Trench can transmit through the weak fossil spreading centers and intra-arc rifts and drive the Izu-Bonin Trench's advance. In contrast, lithospheric weakening overwhelms lithospheric strengthening and impedes stress transfer in the back-arc spreading stage, suggesting that the slab pull cannot directly pull the Mariana Trench to advance at present. We suggest that the Mariana Trench advance is driven by the continuous Izu-Bonin Trench advance from the north, which is supported by the fact that the Mariana Trench is further east than the Izu-Bonin Trench and that the IBM trench advance rate decreases southward.
Understanding influence of ocean waves on Arctic sea ice simulation: A modeling study with an atmosphere-ocean-wave-sea ice coupled model
Authors: Yang Chao-Yuan , Liu Jiping
Published: March 2024

Rapid decline of Arctic sea ice has created more open water for ocean wave development and highlighted the importance of wave-ice interactions in the Arctic. Some studies have made contributions to our understanding of the potential role of the prognostic floe size distribution (FSD) on sea ice changes. However, these efforts do not capture the full interactions between atmosphere, ocean, wave, and sea-ice. In this study, a modified joint floe size and thickness distribution (FSTD) is implemented in a newly-developed regional atmosphere-ocean-wave-sea ice coupled model and a series of pan-Arctic simulation is conducted with different physical configurations related to FSD changes, including FSD-fixed, FSD-varied, lateral melting rate, wave-fracturing formulation, and wave attenuation rate. Firstly, atmosphere-ocean-wave-sea ice coupled simulations show that the prognostic FSD leads to reduced ice area due to enhanced ice-ocean heat fluxes, but the feedbacks from the atmosphere and the ocean partially offset the reduced ice area induced by the prognostic FSD. Secondly, lateral melting rate formulations do not change the simulated FSD significantly, but they influence the flux exchanges across atmosphere, ocean, and sea-ice and thus sea ice responses. Thirdly, the changes of FSD are sensitive to the simulated wave parameters associated with different wave-fracturing formulations and wave attenuation rates, and the limited oceanic energy imposes a strong constraint on the response of sea ice to FSD changes. Finally, the results also show that wave-related physical processes can have impacts on sea ice changes with the constant FSD, indicating the indirect influences of ocean waves on sea-ice through the atmosphere and the ocean.
Integrating Sentinel-5P Satellite Data and Machine Learning Algorithms for Air Quality Index Prediction in Tehran: A Comprehensive Study on Factors Influencing Air Quality
Authors: Kafi Amir Mohammad , Hosseinipoor Mahdi , Zare Shahne Maryam , Jamaat Amirmoez
Published: March 2024

Frequent air pollution episodes pose severe health and environmental challenges in Tehran, Iran. Despite recent efforts, pollutant levels often exceed WHO-based national standards. This study addresses the pressing need for accurate air quality prediction by leveraging advanced satellite data and machine learning techniques. Our methodology integrates Sentinel-5P satellite data with optical depth remote sensing information. We systematically evaluated five machine learning algorithms to identify the most effective approach for AQI prediction. This study aims to advance air quality prediction in Tehran by integrating Sentinel-5P satellite data with machine learning algorithms. We examined the efficacy of various algorithms, including Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbors, Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Logistic Regression, in correlating air pollutant levels with the Air Quality Index (AQI). The selection criteria focused on algorithmic efficiency and accuracy in handling diverse environmental datasets. The Random Forest algorithm, utilizing Sentinel-5P and optical depth data, achieved a remarkable accuracy of 74% in predicting AQI. Further enhancement was observed by incorporating climatic data, COVID-19 status, and environmental parameters; the model achieved a significant predictive accuracy of up to 75.6%. These findings underscore the critical impact of nitrogen dioxide, ozone, and aerosol optical depth on Tehran's AQI, with notable variations observed post-COVID-19 restrictions. The increase in AQI following the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions suggests a significant correlation between human activity and air quality. These insights can inform targeted environmental policies in Tehran. We demonstrate the potential of integrating satellite data with machine learning to predict AQI accurately. Our approach offers a scalable model for urban air quality management with implications for environmental policy and public health initiatives.
Lightning follows ship-tracks in Eastern Mediterranean winter thunderstorms.
Authors: Yair Yoav , Korzets Menahem , Lynn Barry , Namia-Cohen Yannai , Price Colin
Published: March 2024

The interaction between aerosol particles and thunderstorm evolution and properties is complex and was studied by direct observational campaigns, remote sensing from space and through numerical simulations. Aerosols invigorate convection and can lead to enhanced charging manifested in more lightning, but they can also lead to a "Boomerang Effect" where too large concentrations of particles lead to diminished vertical development and weaker electrical activity. The effects of ship exhaust on ocean cloudiness have been studied intensively in recent years, following the discovery of prolonged ship tracks in oceanic regions where maritime transportation is most heavy, leading to large-scale changes in albedo and reduced precipitation. Recently it was shown that aerosols emitted by ships also tend to increase lightning activity, by modifying the dynamics and microphysics of clouds formed directly above the busiest shipping lanes.
We study the effects of ship-emitted aerosols on thunderstorms in one of the busiest shipping routes in the world: the Mediterranean Sea between the Suez Canal and the Gibraltar Straights. This region hosts hundreds of ships daily, and space observations show considerable enhancement of the Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) and NOx concentrations there, some from land sources and others directly related to ship emissions. The research utilized lightning detection networks' data (ENTLN) and studied the properties of lightning (peak current, multiplicity, polarity) with respect to aerosol concentrations and meteorological conditions. Initial results from the Eastern Mediterranean shows a marked increase in winter (DJF) lightning activity over the main east-west shipping lanes, where a conspicuously larger fraction of superbolts (I > 200 kA) is observed. We suggest that the synergistic action of desert dust and air-pollution aerosols acts to invigorate (and sometimes diminish) convection - depending on their relative concentrations and the ambient meteorological conditions. Results from numerical simulations with the latest version of the WRF-ELEC model with advanced spectral-bin microphysics (SBM) will be presented.
The need for a detection and attribution system for the carbon cycle
Authors: Bastos Ana , Li Na , Dunkl István
Published: March 2024

Climate change is a consequence of the perturbation of the global carbon cycle through emission of CO2 and other greenhouse gases through fossil fuel burning, large-scale deforestation and other human activities since the industrial revolution. These emissions have been buffered by about 50% by the land and ocean carbon sinks, which have increased in pace with anthropogenic emissions. At the same time, changes in temperature and precipitation patterns and extremes due to climate change influence the efficiency of the land and ocean carbon sinks, so that their efficiency is projected to decline as negative consequences of climate change become more important.Recent studies have pointed out that the global land carbon sink might be already slowing down and even declining in some regions, e.g., Europe. Understanding to which extent these recent trends are driven by climate change and extremes, policy changes or other factors is key to predict how the land sink will evolve in the coming decades and better constrain the potential for land-based climate change mitigation. However, at time scales of few years to decades, the role of internal climate variability on trends and extremes in climatic drivers of ecosystem carbon cycling cannot be ignored, and may mask or amplify changes in carbon sinks due to anthropogenic activities.Here, we argue that extending Detection and Attribution (D&A) to the carbon cycle realm is crucially needed to support both climate science and policy assessments. We will discuss a number of conceptual and practical hurdles that make this exercise arguably even more challenging than climate D&A. We further present developments that can open the way towards a D&A for the carbon cycle, including improved quantification of carbon fluxes over land, the progress towards fast-track assessments of carbon flux anomalies following weather extremes, and the use of D&A techniques to study recent trends in the carbon cycle. 
Characterizing shallow creep along the Dead Sea pull-apart basin using geodetic observations
Authors: Hamiel Yariv , Bilham Roger
Published: March 2024

We use geodetic measurements to characterize aseismic deformation along the western boundary fault of the Dead Sea pull-apart basin, which is located at the southern part of the sinistral Dead Sea Fault. This research provides constraints on patterns and timescales of deformation and its dependence on regional tectonics and the rheology of the upper crust. We use creepmeter, GNSS, InSAR and airborne LiDAR observations and show transient aseismic slip on the western boundary fault of the Dead Sea basin. A biaxial creepmeter with a 30 s sampling interval was installed in early 2021 showing high extensional deformation (an average rate of ~8.6 mm/yr), which is consistent with the ~30 cm of subsidence recorded 2017-2019 differential LiDAR data. The data imply modulated slip on a 60° dipping normal fault with maximum slip rates of ~0.5 µm/hour starting in late August and varying close to zero in late April. We attribute these large movements to local tectonics, sediment compaction, thermo-elastic response and dissolution of subsurface salt responsible for the formation of sink-holes in the region. The creepmeter measurements also show some sinistral deformation with an average rate of ~2.1 mm/yr, comparable to the rate of 2.5±0.4 mm/yr that was observed for the Sedom Fault, the southernmost segment of the western boundary fault, using GNSS data. Several minor creep events were detected by the creepmeter. The 19 Feb 2022 creep event lasted more than an hour following heavy rain in this area with abrupt sinistral slip of ~2.5 mm preceding dilation and dip-slip by 20 minutes. Small Baseline Subset (SBAS) analysis of InSAR data reveals up to 7mm/yr of line-of-sight deformation across the western boundary fault, north of the creepmeter. It also reveals high subsidence rate (up to ~20 mm/yr) along the southern shores of the Dead Sea Lake that can be explained by high compaction rate of clay sediments and reduction of pore pressure along the lake shores. This high subsidence rate is also observed in our near shore GNSS stations. Our results indicate that deformation within the Dead Sea basin is not solely controlled by the active tectonics. The observed vertical deformation is apparently modulated by the response of sediments to seasonal variations of local conditions.
On the vorticity statistics in the Atlantic and East Pacific ITCZ
Authors: Praturi Divya Sri , Stevens Bjorn
Published: March 2024

We investigate the small scale dynamical controls on the Intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the Atlantic and East Pacific basins using 5 year, global km-scale coupled atmosphere-ocean-land simulations. To this end, using an ITCZ-based coordinate system, we develop a composited view of the zonal mean statistics of potential vorticity (PV) during Boreal Summer (JJA) at geopotential heights of 0.3, 1.5 and 4 km. The ITCZ-based coordinate system is defined locally at each longitude, such that the ITCZ latitude — identified as the latitude where the column water vapor is a maximum — constitutes the origin. The zonal, 5-year JJA mean latitudes of the Atlantic and East Pacific ITCZ determined based on this definition are 7.8°N and 10.8°N, respectively. The thus obtained composited PV profiles are robust with low inter-annual variability. The PV profiles exhibit a similar structure in both the basins of interest: a gradual increase in the PV values with latitude, followed by a sharp increase in the PV values in the ITCZ due to latent heating. The necessary conditions for the instability of the zonal flow are met, as the sign of the meridional gradient of PV is reversed at the ITCZ. The magnitudes of PV statistics in and around the Atlantic ITCZ are slightly smaller than those of the East Pacific ITCZ. The differences in PV values in the basins can be explained using one of the processes governing the vertical vorticity in the ITCZ, i.e., vortex stretching due to convergence. The vortex stretching term is proportional to the Coriolis parameter, i.e., for a given convergence rate in the ITCZ, more northern ITCZ latitudes could experience greater jumps in vertical vorticities. We also find that at geopotential heights of 0.3 and 1.5 km, the monthly mean relative vertical vorticity in the ITCZ increases as the ITCZ moves to the North. 
Ionospheric space weather and seismo-ionospheric precursors observed by China seismo-electromagnetic satellite
Authors: Liu Jann-Yenq , Chang Fu-Yuan , Wen Yun-Cheng , Shen Xuhui
Published: March 2024

The China Seismo-Electromagnetic Satellite (CSES), with a sun-synchronous orbit at 507 km altitude, was launched on 2 February 2018 to investigate seismo-ionospheric precursors (SIPs) and ionospheric space weather.  The CSES probes manifest longitudinal features of 4-peak plasma density and three plasma depletions in the equatorial/low-latitudes as well as mid-latitude troughs.  CSES plasma and the total electron content (TEC) of the global ionosphere map (GIM) are used to study PEIAs associated with a destructive M7.0 earthquake and its followed M6.5 and M6.3/M6.9 earthquakes in Lombok, Indonesia, on 5, 17, and 19 August 2018, respectively, as well as to examine ionospheric disturbances induced by an intense storm with the Dst index of -175 nT on 26 August 2018.  Spatial analyses of GIM TEC and CSES plasma quantities discriminate SIPs from global effects and locate the epicenter of possible forthcoming large earthquakes.  CSES ion velocities are useful to derive SIP- and storm-related electric fields in the ionosphere.
Solar Park Detection Based On Machine Learning
Authors: Basant Shivam , Indu Jayaluxmi , Banerjee Biplab
Published: March 2024

Solar energy shall be an indispensable part in India’s clean energy transition. As renewable energy requires large amount of space considerations, policy makers often question the land based targets for deploying solar parks. A robust geospatial information on existing solar parks shall be crucial for both the governments and policy makers.This study presents a novel method to detect solar parks using a synergy of satellite imagery from Sentinel-2 and convolutional neural networks (CNN). For the work, a total of nearly 2000 satellite images from Sentinel-2 were chosen over ten number of solar parks situated in India. Case study results are presented for the solar parks in India namely Bhadla Solar Park, Rajasthan, and Pavagada Solar Park, Karnataka. This dataset measures solar footprint over India and examines environmental impacts of solar parks over nearby ecosystem.
The effects of restraining and releasing fault bends on the propagation of shear ruptures: direct experimental measurements
Authors: Gabrieli Tom , Tal Yuval
Published: March 2024

The geometry of long strike-slip faults often includes local deviations from the general fault orientation, commonly known as restraining and releasing bends. As earthquake ruptures propagate along the fault, these bends experience either an increase or decrease of stress, influencing the rupture dynamics. While it is well established that these geometric features can dramatically affect rupture parameters such as propagation velocity, style, and extent, the exact dynamics and mechanics of the rupture-bend interaction are not yet clear. Here, we present direct experimental observations of the interaction of shear ruptures with restraining and releasing bends of different angles, deviating from a planar interface by up to 30 degrees. We trigger dynamic ruptures that spontaneously propagate along matching interfaces between two loaded PMMA plates and image ruptures at the area of the bends with an ultra-high-speed camera, operating at a rate of million frames per second. By applying Digital Image Correlation on the imaged frames, we produce high-resolution, full-field maps of the evolution of displacements, particle velocities, and stresses as the ruptures propagate through the bends. While all ruptures reach the bends as self-healing slip pulses propagating at sub-Rayleigh velocities, different bend geometries have different effects on the ruptures. These include arresting the ruptures, transitioning them into supershear and crack-like ruptures, and triggering secondary ruptures and back-propagations. These results can illuminate the complex dynamics that evolve around restraining and releasing bends during earthquakes and can be used for calibrating earthquake models and refining earthquake hazard assessments.
Applying Deep-learning Models in Observation Simulation Experiments of Throughflows Across the Indonesian Seas
Authors: Xue Huijie , Wang Zihao , Wang Yuan
Published: March 2024

The Indonesian ThroughfFow (ITF) plays a vital role in the global ocean circulation and climate system. The intricate labyrinth of passages around the Indonesian Seas poses a grand challenge in monitoring and understanding the throughflow in the region. In this study, we employ the deep-learning approach to examine to what degree known sea level variations can determine main in- and outflows through the Indonesian Seas. The approach is first validated using the simulated environment from a regional circulation model. Our results show that the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models can well represent the temporal variations of throughflows across the Indonesian Seas. Moreover, the skills can be significantly improved if aided by time series of transport from a small number of passages. We also apply the trained model to the satellite derived sea surface height in design of more effective allocations of observation assets.
Remote sensing linear trends of the Gulf Stream from 1993 to 2
Authors: Zhang Wenzhou , Chai Fei , Xue Huijie , Oey Leo
Published: March 2024

The Gulf Stream (GS) transports a massive amount of heat northward to high latitudes and releases sensible and latent heat to the atmosphere, playing an important role in the North Atlantic and European climate change. The change trends of the GS transport and pathway are still uncertain to date. Our analyses of altimeter observations from 1993 to 2016 indicate that the linear trends in surface maximum speed, transport and latitudinal location of the GS are significant east of 61ºW at the 95% level while they are small and not significant between 72ºW and 61ºW. The weakening trend of the GS during the period from 1993 to 2016 is accompanied with a southward-shifting path, which is associated with the decline of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and possibly reduction in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). 
Mantle discontinuities beneath Arctic ocean and Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone
Authors: Yuan Ye , Keith Magali John , Thomas Christine
Published: March 2024

We investigate the properties of mantle discontinuities beneath the Arctic ocean and the Aleutian-Alaska subduction zone with underside reflections of PP and SS waves. The depth distributions of the 410-km and 520-km discontinuities suggest a relatively normal mantle transition zone beneath the Arctic ocean and a cold mantle transition zone with the subducted Pacific plate beneath Aleutian-Alaska subduction. The depth of the 660 km discontinuity shows normal behavior beneath the Arctic Ocean. However, the detection of deep reflectors with opposite polarities in depth range of 720~770 km beneath the eastern Aleutians introduces additional complexity for explaining the slab morphology.  We test several plausible compositions using mineralogical modeling along a subduction geotherm. The deep reflectors are interpreted as mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) crust associated with the Pacific slab that may deform or buckle at the bottom of the mantle transition zone beneath the eastern Aleutians.  Meanwhile, an uplifted 660-km discontinuity observed in the adjacent Alaska region suggests a different subduction depth, where the slab may penetrate the 410-km discontinuity but does not reach the 660-km discontinuity,  consistent with previous regional studies. Our observations thus depict a complex slab geometry along the Aleutian-Alaska trench, that is, the slab  may reach the top of the lower mantle beneath eastern Aleutian but remains at the base of the transition zone underneath central Alaska.
Different effects of Multiple Water Elements on Vegetation: A Case Study of the Yellow River Basin
Authors: Jin Xiaohui
Published: March 2024

The effects of water on vegetation have always been a concern. It is an important support as well as a major limiting factor with respect to vegetation growth. By analyzing the spatiotemporal changes and correlations between precipitation (PRE), soil moisture (SM), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the Yellow River Basin, we explored the different effects of different water elements on vegetation. Our findings reveal the following: (1) NDVI and the three water elements report an increasing trend in the Yellow River Basin, with NDVI increasing most significantly. (2) The changes in vegetation are closely related to arid and humid zoning of the Yellow River Basin. NDVI of arid regions is significantly lower than that of humid regions; additionally, NDVI of natural vegetation in arid regions is lower than that of crops planted in irrigation areas, whereas the opposite is true in humid regions. (3) 92.1% of the Yellow River Basin showed an increase in NDVI, and 76.4% showed a significant increase. The proportions with trends of increasing in PRE, SM, and VPD were 75.40%, 51.88%, and 49.71%, with significant increases of 4.5%, 9.5%, 17.9%, respectively; (4) Vegetation in the Yellow River Basin was most positively affected by PRE, followed by SM and VPD. PRE mainly affected the natural vegetation on both sides of the boundary between the arid and semi-arid regions and the semi-humid regions. SM mainly affected the natural vegetation in the arid and semi-arid regions, whereas VPD mainly affected the crops in the irrigation areas, and the irrigation areas in arid regions were affected the most. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the relationship between water elements and vegetation, as well as the formulation of strategies for the healthy development of regional natural vegetation and crops in areas of irrigation.
Field Observations of Soil Piping and associated disasters in the Western Ghats region of Karnataka (Kodagu district) 
Authors: Manjunath Kushal
Published: March 2024

The Western Ghats are in the final stage of weathering. Hence, the Laterite, clay, and Saprolite layers can vary to depths greater than 50 meters. Thus, the Western Ghats have unique hillslope hydrology, with more than three-quarters of rainfall entering the subsurface flow, thus developing well-networked sub-surface conduits. These sub-surface conduits help maintain slope stability of the Shayadris' (Western Ghats) laterites, which are usually exposed to high-intensity rainfall for longer durations during the monsoon season. The slope failures and floods in 2018, 2019 and 2020 are due to Catchment Fragmentation leading to a disturbed hydrological cycle in both surface and subsurface levels. A unique observation showed that most of the landslides (mostly toe failures) were concentrated near the Harangi reservoir and had a valley stream connecting to the reservoir. During field observations in these slope failure sites, soil pipe was observed in the crest of the landslide scarp for most of the accessible locations. The slope failures could be due to backflows in the soil pipes during heavy rainfall and mismanagement of dam gates. Observations from local residents who had witnessed the slope fail gave an idea of backflows in these slopes, which they locally termed as JALASPHOTA – The burst of groundwater up these soil slopes. During field observations post-monsoon, streams were visible at the surface of the scarp through these soil pipes after the landslide. GSD of Lateritic soils of Kodagu is Clay, sandy clay, sand-silt clay, clayey sand, sand-silt-clay and clayey sand. A slow-moving landslide was observed on the highway connecting to Mangalore, where more clay content was observed. Juvenile and fully developed soil pipes were observed at the landslide scarp, and slopes with fully mature soil pipes were observed to have more runout distance. A few case studies of how catchment Fragmentation has disturbed the sub-surface hydrology, leading to slope failure, are discussed in this study. 