bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Owner Tenancy as Credible Commitment under Uncertainty
Authors: Glascock John L. , Sirmans C. F. , Turnbull Geoffrey K.
Published: September 2003

How do landlords provide credible signals to tenants that they will maintainthe building when the needed upkeep over the contract period is uncertain at the time that rental decisions are made? In this paper, we develop a model of credible commitment under uncertainty wherein owner tenancy serves as the commitment signal to the market. In comparing completely tenant‐occupied (absentee landlord) to partially owner‐occupied buildings, the model predicts that in the latter case, the equilibrium rent is higher. We test this prediction using rental data for a sample of office buildings, some of which are completely tenant‐occupied while others are partially owner‐occupied. The results indicate that, as predicted by the model, rents are significantly higher when landlords can signal a commitment to high‐performance standards.
Lender Forbearance: Evidence from Mortgage Delinquency Patterns
Authors: Springer Thomas M. , Waller Neil G.
Published: September 2003

The length of time that residential mortgages remain in delinquency prior to foreclosure is examined using an Accelerated Failure Time (AFT) model and a database of 207 foreclosed conventional and Veteran's Administration (VA) mortgages. The results suggest that the primary factors influencing the timing of the lender's foreclosure decision are the borrower's equity position and the erosion of that position with continuing delinquency. Borrower bankruptcy and VA guarantees also lengthen the delinquency period. Delinquency periods for fixed rate mortgages (FRM) decrease when the market interest rate increases.
An Investigation of the Change in Real Estate Investment Trust Betas
Authors: Khoo Terence , Hartzell David , Hoesli Martin
Published: September 2003

The betas on equity real estate investment trusts (EREITs) have undergone a structural shift in the past 20 years. We show that this is the result of the lower variability of EREIT returns and argue that the decrease in the standard deviation of EREIT returns can be attributed to the increasing levels of information about EREITs. We find that the number of analysts following the EREITs industry, as measured by IBES, can significantly explain the drop in the standard deviation for most EREITs. This was also found to be the case for another proxy for the level of information—the trading volume of the EREIT index.
Incentive Problems and General Partner Compensation in Limited Partnership Real Estate Investments
Authors: Hamill James R.
Published: September 2003

When a general partner raises capital for a real estate syndication, prospective investors should price‐protect against incentives of the general partner to misrepresent project cash flows. In this study, I evaluate the structure of the general partner's compensation and specific project characteristics to determine if compensation structure can mitigate agency costs. Results indicate that front‐end compensation is higher for the high reputation general partner and that the compensation structure varies with the degree of management expertise required and the financial risks of the investment.
Temporal Aggregation in Real Estate Return Indices
Authors: Geltner David
Published: September 2003

Temporal aggregation is defined as the use of spot valuations of properties occuring over an interval of time to impute the spot value of a property or of a real estate value index as of a single point in time. Temporal aggregation may characterize not only appraisal‐based indices but also indices based directly on transaction prices, such as the National Real Estate Index (NREI) and regression‐based indices such as hedonic or repeat‐sales indices. This paper analyzes the effect of temporal aggregation on the smoothing of the time series second moments in the resulting real estate return index. Assuming true spot returns are uncorrelated, temporal aggregation‐induced smoothing will cause the empirically observed real estate index to understate the own‐variance by one‐third and the beta by one‐half. This amount of bias in the second moments can have major implications for the real estate share in an optimal portfolio. Thus, empirical‐based investment analysis could be led astray by smoothing even if the real estate return index is “transaction‐based” rather than “appraisal‐based.”
Transaction Costs, Suboptimal Termination and Default Probabilities
Authors: Kau James B. , Keenan Donald C. , Kim Taewon
Published: September 2003

The same option‐based methodology now commonly used to value mortgages and their termination features also can be applied to calculate the probabilities that mortgage default will occur. This paper pursues that idea, and furthermore, enriches the idealized option‐based approach by introducing both transaction costs and “suboptimal” termination. These latter features capture the individual considerations that cause a mortgage holder's actions to differ from what rationality would indicate based solely on the market value of the mortgage. These features are of considerable importance if the results of options‐based models are to be made comparable to those calculations of default probabilities occurring in the empirical literature.
Elective Mortgage Prepayment: Termination and Curtailment
Authors: Chinloy Peter
Published: September 2003

Mortgage‐prepayment risk underlies the structuring of mortgage‐backed derivative securities, such as tranched real estate mortgage investment conduits. This prepayment comes either from mortgage termination or from curtailment, where the borrower retains the existing mortgage and prepays a portion. There are differences in cash flows from the two types of prepayment. In termination, the loan disappears from a pool, and the scheduled payment to investors in the pool is reduced. In curtailment, the loan survives, and the scheduled payment is unchanged but the term is reduced. There are implications for structuring mortgages and derivative securities. The prepayment decision is embedded in an in‐tertemporal household utility maximization framework where choices are made between refinancing, making the regular payment, default or curtailment. Empirical results are presented for Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA) pools, and an algorithm is presented that separates the termination and curtailment components, facilitating the development of derivative securities.
Why Do We Have ARMs?
Authors: Brueckner Jan K.
Published: September 2003

This paper suggests a resolution to the paradox of inefficient risk bearing by adjustable‐rate mortgage (ARM) borrowers. The analysis shows that when contracts are written in a realistic way, with payments linked across time via a common loan‐rate function, risk sharing and the tilt of the mortgage payment stream become inextricably linked. Unless time preferences are identical or the cost of funds exhibits no time trend, borrowers will accept interest‐rate risk in order to gain a more favorable time path of mortgage payments.
Pricing Mortgage‐Backed Securities: Integrating Optimal Call and Empirical Models of Prepayment
Authors: Archer Wayne R. , Ling David C.
Published: September 2003

Residential mortgage borrowers frequently appear to behave suboptimally with respect to their mortgage prepayment options. Many borrowers fail to exercise even well‐into‐the‐money options while others prepay when the call option is out‐of‐the‐money. To account for these apparently suboptimal prepayments, the recent trend in mortgage‐backed securities research has been away from optimal call valuation models, in which the decision to exercise is determined endoge‐nously, in favor of models in which prepayment behavior is exogenously specified based on empirical estimation. This paper develops a rational model of mortgage prepayment which incorporates both types of “non‐optimal” prepayment and retains endogenous call. This enables the model to disentangle and compare the separate effects of the interest rate call, impeded by transaction costs, and of non‐interest‐rate driven prepayment. In addition, by recognizing heterogenous borrower transaction costs, the model presents a way to account more precisely for the varying prepayment lags associated with well‐into‐the‐money call options and to account for the phenomenon of “burnout” within a mortgage pool. The paper includes an empirical test of the unbiasedness of the integrated pricing model by comparing simulated prices from our theoretical model to observed prices on traded Fannie Mae and GNMA securities.
Equity and Nonequity Determinants of FHA Single‐Family Mortgage Foreclosures in the 1980s
Authors: Hendershott Patric H. , Schultz William R.
Published: September 2003

We examine foreclosures on FHA single‐family mortgages insured during the 1975–87 period. The importance of the market value of borrower equity and national house price dispersion support much earlier work emphasizing the key role of negative equity in triggering default. The lower is “mean” market‐value equity, and the greater is dispersion, the greater is the fraction of borrowers likely to have negative equity. The unemployment rate and the book value of borrower equity are also shown to be significant determinants of default. Unemployment is one of those events that can force borrowers to move. The moving decision increases the likelihood of default because moving costs no longer deter default, and the costs of selling the house reduce the effective equity in the house. The book value of equity is relevant to this decision because it is what the sellers receive if they move without defaulting. Not only are both of these variables significant determinants of default, but the smaller is book equity, the greater is employment impact (with large book equity, unemployment should not matter because selling the house is preferred to default).
Commercial Mortgage Defaults: Proportional Hazards Estimation Using Individual Loan Histories
Authors: Vandell Kerry D. , Barnes Walter , Hartzell David , Kraft Dennis , Wendt William
Published: September 2003

This paper examines the theory of commercial mortgage default and tests it using a data set of 2,899 loan histories provided by a major multi‐line insurance company. A default model is estimated which relates subsequent default incidence and timing to contemporaneous loan term, borrower, property and economic/market conditions. Maximum likelihood estimation is used to estimate a hazard function predicting conditional probability of default over time. Results confirm many expected default relationships, in particular the dominance of loan terms and property value trends over time in affecting default. The effectiveness of the model in discriminating between “good” and “bad” loans is explored. Implications for underwriting practice and credit risk diversification are noted. Finally, suggestions are made for extending these results in pricing applications.
The Integration of Mortgage Markets and Capital Markets
Authors: Goebel Paul R. , Ma Christopher K.
Published: September 2003

In this paper, we develop a model to predict the impact of deregulation in the form of relaxing interest rate control on the integration between the mortgage credit market and the general credit market. The model is tested through the examination of the long‐term Granger‐like equilibrium relationship between mortgage interest rates and general interest rates in the pre‐1980 regulated vs. the post‐1980 deregulated periods. It is shown that the level of regulation, in the form of targeting general interest rate levels, contributes to the segmentation of the mortgage market from the capital market. To test this model, we compare the relationship between mortgage interest rates and general interest rates around 1980 where major control on interest rate levels in capital markets was lifted. Using Engle and Granger's procedure to overcome the estimation problem from nonstationarity in the interest rate series, we are able to find that the two interest rates were cointegrated after 1980 but not before. More importantly, it appears that the two markets were already integrated before the full development of the secondary mortgage markets between 1984 and 1987. Therefore, we conclude that the bulk of the integration between the mortgage and capital markets was completed as a result of the removal of interest rate controls around 1980, in contrast with previous studies that find integration occurred during the mid‐1980s primarily as a result of the rapid development of the secondary mortgage markets.
The 1989–92 Credit Crunch for Real Estate: A Retrospective
Authors: Fergus James T. , Goodman John L.
Published: September 2003

This study surveys a broad range of information to establish the degree to which real estate lending and construction activity decreased in the 1989–92 period owing to a “credit crunch.” It reviews the conditions that led up to the contraction in mortgage lending and construction and then documents the extent to which the evidence is consistent with a credit crunch in lending for residential and nonresidential construction, permanent financing of income properties, and residential mortgage lending. Also, this study weighs the relative importance of the credit crunch and other factors that contributed to the falloff in real estate lending and contrasts the recent period with earlier credit crunch episodes.
Bank Real Estate Lending and the New England Capital Crunch
Authors: Peek Joe , Rosengren Eric S.
Published: September 2003

The stock of real estate loans held by New England banks has declined dramatically. Given the limited potential for real estate investments, weak demand for real estate loans is to be expected. However, supply as well as demand factors may account for some of the decline in bank real estate loans. This paper documents that bank lending for real estate may have been constrained by a capital crunch, whereby poorly capitalized banks shrank their assets, including real estate loans, to satisfy capital requirements. Because the loss of bank capital is so widespread in New England, bank‐dependent borrowers may have difficulty obtaining real estate financing.
Failed Bank Resolution and the Collateral Crunch: The Advantages of Adopting Transferable Puts
Authors: Rosengren Eric S. , Simons Katerina
Published: September 2003

Current methods of failed bank resolution are unnecessarily expensive for taxpayers and impose substantial costs on borrowers at failed banks. This situation is the result of distorted incentives imbedded in the standard contract between the government and acquirers of failed banks, which result in more loan foreclosures than if the loan were held by a well‐capitalized bank. This paper proposes a modification to the standard contract in the form of a transferable put, which would introduce market‐based incentives to the disposition of failed bank assets.
Contract Design for Problem Asset Disposition
Authors: Benveniste Larry , Capozza Dennis R. , Kormendi Roger , Wilhelm William
Published: September 2003

As a result of declining real estate values and the receivership of numerous financial institutions, government regulators like the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) have large inventories of distressed assets. This paper develops a model of the principal/agent issues associated with management and disposition of problem assets. In the model, optimal contracts balance risk sharing with incentives for effort. We argue that the RTC will minimize the ultimate cost of the thrift crisis by placing managerial control of distressed assets in the private sector, while retaining full or partial ownership of the assets for risk‐sharing purposes. Recoveries are maximized, however, only when an asset manager is incented to expend a first‐best level of effort by indexing asset management and disposition contracts to market movements.
An Empirical Analysis of the Housing Decisions of Older Homeowners
Authors: VanderHart Peter G.
Published: September 2003

This paper examines the effects of finanacial, demographic and housing variables on older homeowners' propensity to make a variety of housing changes. Pooled cross‐sectional data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics is used in a multinomial logit framework. The results indicate that demographic factors are much more important than financial factors in explaining housing changes by older homeowners.
Reverse Mortgages and the Liquidity of Housing Wealth
Authors: Mayer Christopher J. , Simons Katerina V.
Published: September 2003

Housing wealth constitutes most of the non‐pension wealth of the elderly population. This study analyzes the potential of reverse mortgages to increase the income and liquid wealth of the elderly by identifying households with relatively high levels of housing equity. Because this article looks at the whole distribution of elderly households and considers debt as well as income, it finds a larger potential market for reverse mortgages than previous studies.

Calculations from the 1990 Survey of Income and Program Participation and Census population estimates show that over six million homeowners in the United States could increase their effective monthly income by at least 20% by using a reverse mortgage. Of these, more than 1.3 million have no children. Furthermore, a reverse mortgage would allow over 1.4 million poor elderly persons to raise their incomes above the poverty line.
Preliminary Evaluation of the HECM Reverse Mortgage Program
Authors: Case Bradford , Schnare Ann B.
Published: September 2003

This paper describes and evaluates the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) insurance demonstration, designed to encourage the development of private reverse mortgage programs by insuring lenders against the risks associated with new mortgage lending programs and with reverse mortgages in particular. The paper evaluates demand for the program by analyzing the attributes of participating borrowers, their properties and the types of payment options chosen. It also presents several observations regarding participation by the financial community in the HECM demonstration, required counseling and legal and regulatory issues that may hamper the growth and development of reverse mortgage programs in general.

The findings suggest strong demand for reverse mortgages among “house‐rich, cash‐poor” elderly homeowners, either to supplement inadequate current incomes or to provide a reserve against unexpected lump‐sum expenses. The flexible design of the HECM program addresses a wide variety of borrower financial needs, even though it imposes higher costs on lenders and servicers. The continued growth of the program, however, is hindered by a shortage of qualified housing counselors in some areas, as well as by a variety of legal and regulatory barriers.
Reverse Mortgages and Interest Rate Risk
Authors: Boehm Thomas P. , Ehrhardt Michael C.
Published: September 2003

We develop and apply a valuation model that quantifies the interest rate risk inherent in fixed‐rate reverse mortgages. Consistent with intuition, our results show that the interest rate risk of a reverse mortgage is greater than that of either a typical coupon bond or a regular mortgage. Somewhat surprisingly, we find that this difference in interest rate risk is extremely large. In fact, the interest rate risk of a reverse mortgage often is several orders of magnitude greater than the interest rate risk of other fixed‐income securities.
Reverse Mortgages and Prepayment Risk
Authors: Klein Linda S. , Sirmans C.F.
Published: September 2003

This paper presents a detailed assessment of the Connecticut Housing Finance Authority (CHFA) reverse annuity mortgage (RAM) program. Because of the size and payment history of the program, the analysis provides an empirical framework on which to develop and assess other home equity conversion (HEC) programs. The program offers insights into the economic impact of these programs and the factors affecting prepayment. The program issued 765 annuities over five years, and 240 of these loans have terminated payments. The annuity payments had a demonstrable financial impact on the elderly participants, with an 88% average annual income increase. Prepayment rates varied across borrower and loan characteristics. The rates were most sensitive to marital status and were heavily affected by the age of the borrower and the term of the loan. Although default risk exists, the evidence indicates a low probability of the loan value exceeding the house value.
Reverse Mortgages and Borrower Maintenance Risk
Authors: Miceli Thomas J. , Sirmans C.F.
Published: September 2003

This paper develops a theoretical model of the problem of maintenance risk in reverse mortgages (RMs) and home equity conversion instruments generally. By maintenance risk, we refer to the incentive homeowners will have to reduce maintenance expenditures as their equity in the house falls during the term of the RM. The underlying reason for this tendency is the limited liability feature of RMs, given that a borrower's obligation to the lender at. maturity is limited to the value of the house.

The results of the model show that lenders will respond to this problem either by limiting the amount of RM loans to guarantee that maintenance risk is not a threat, or by charging an interest rate premium to cover the expected cost of default. Unfortunately, there do not exist data to test the importance of maintenance risk as a possible limitation on the extent of the RM market.
Temporary Buydowns and Affordability
Authors: Guttentag Jack M. , Redstone Allan J.
Published: September 2003

This paper is directed to a neglected aspect of the problem of home ownership affordability: the impact on affordability of temporary buy downs. A temporary buydown is an option offered to home buyers to reduce the mortgage payment in the early years of the loan. The borrower allocates cash up front to an escrow account from which funds are withdrawn monthly to supplement the borrower's mortgage payment.

Temporary buydowns are underused partly because of the difficulty of determining whether, in any particular case, they will increase affordability. This paper develops a new instrument called the maximum affordable mortgage (MAX) which automatically allocates the buyer's available cash between buydown, down payment and other uses in a manner which maximizes affordability for the buyer, subject to whatever underwriting constraints the investor wishes to impose on payment graduation and/or the total size of the buydown.

The lender originating the MAX must be able to solve a complex algorithm at the point of sale, but the complexity is all behind the scenes. Using a computer, a loan officer can quickly find the cash allocation that maximizes affordability. The power of the MAX in increasing affordability may be enhanced if it is combined with a buyup wherein the lender trades off lower points against a higher rate.
Economies of Scope and Density in the Market for Real Estate Brokerage Services
Authors: Zumpano Leonard V. , Elder Harold W.
Published: September 2003

Using a multiproduct translog cost function, this paper examines the case for economies of scope and density in the market for residential real estate brokerage services. Earlier research that treated output as a homogeneous commodity reported modest economies of scale for this industry. The results of this study suggest that the composition of output is an important source of these scale economies, rather than simply the size of the firm. The economies of scope which we find imply that a balanced mix of listing and sales is the least costly type of operation, a result borne out by the product mix found in our sample. The results also show product‐specific diseconomies of scale, suggesting that specialization in either listing or sales may be sub‐optimal under the current institutional arrangements present in the market. Finally, market density appears to be, at best, only a nominal source of savings for real estate brokerage firms.
Zoning Policy Changes and the Urban Fringe Land Market
Authors: Thorson James A.
Published: September 2003

This paper examines the effect of a zoning change on the land market in McHenry County, Illinois. One question addressed is whether zoning “follows the market.” It is found that, for agricultural land, zoning does tend to follow the market. In addition, the effect of land prices on land use is examined. The results here, however, are mixed. In the initial years after the zoning change, a high relative price of residential land increases the probability that a parcel will be zoned residential. However, several years later, a high relative price of residential land decreases the probability that a parcel is zoned residential. This result suggests that it may take some time for a zoning change to have a significant impact on the local land market.
Waiting to Default: The Value of Delay
Authors: Kau James B. , Kim Taewon
Published: September 2003

This paper analyzes the opportunity for early termination of a mortgage contract. We consider the possibility of defaulting on the property and explore the rules that are used by a value‐maximizing borrower in exercising this option to default. The discussion centers on the value of waiting to make such a decision and the consequences of this rational inertia. We show that the observed delay in default usually attributed to transaction costs can instead be explained as entirely rational choice in a dynamic environment.
Contigent Price Contracts and the Efficiency of Housing Markets
Authors: Cauley Stephen Day
Published: September 2003

Frequently, the response of housing markets to a large negative demand shock is a period during which the liquidity of housing declines, but the price at which transactions take place changes little. In this paper we show that a decline in liquidity can result from the inabilities of sellers and buyers to insure against post‐shock price uncertainty. We conclude, that the introduction of a risk‐sharing contingent price contract may increase the post‐shock liquidity of housing by providing insurance against post‐shock price uncertainty. Finally, we show that a mutually agreeable contingent price contract will always exist, even when sellers are excessively optimistic.
Industrial Real Estate Mortgage Default Experience of the New York State Job Development Authority Second Loan Program: A Preliminary Investigation
Authors: Simons Robert A.
Published: September 2003

This paper explores the loan loss experience of a public industrial lending authority, employing contemporaneous borrower net equity as a link to mortgage loan default. The relationship between default, net equity and bankruptcy is tested on a small longitudinal data set of loans using nonparametric statistics and a proportional hazard model. Results show that negative net equity and firm bankruptcy are strongly associated with default among the study population. Further, the borrowers studied did not exercise the put option promptly, suggesting potential benefits from monitoring net equity one year or more prior to default.
Optimal Comparable Weighting and Selection: A Comment
Authors: Green Richard K.
Published: September 2003

Vandell (1991) and Gau, et al. (1992) have recently developed rigorous methods for selecting and weighting comparables for the market comparison approach to valuation. This paper compares the statistical properties of the Vandell and Gau approaches; specifically, it examines the bias and variance produced by both approaches. Under classical OLS assumptions, Vandell's method is preferable; when these assumptions are violated, the size and direction of the violation will determine which method is preferable. Finally, the paper concludes that when the regression producing the adjustment factors has an heteroskedastic error structure, corrections should be made to the regression itself, rather than as part of the comparable weighting and selection process.
An Arbitrage‐Free Estimate of Prepayment Option Prices in Fixed‐Rate GNMA Mortgage‐Backed Securities
Authors: Ronn Ehud I. , Rubinstein Peter D. , Pan Fung‐Shine
Published: September 2003

In an efficient market, the no‐arbitrage condition implies that the price difference between any two assets must be the market value of all differences in their cash flows. We use this logic to deduce the price of the prepayment option embedded in fixed‐rate Government National Mortgage Association (GNMA) mortgage‐backed securities. The option price equals the difference between an observed GNMA price and the cost of a synthetic, nonprepayable GNMA constructed from the least expensive portfolio of Treasury securities that exactly replicates the promised GNMA cash flow stream, assuming prepayment is precluded. We regress the option prices on variables found significant in previous prepayment studies, finding that five key regressors explain more than 90% of the prepayment option value in pooled time‐series cross‐sectional analysis. We also show that the time value of the prepayment option calculated by our method displays a pattern similar to that produced by the Black‐Scholes (1973) option pricing model. An additional empirical result is the existence of negative option prices and negative time value of the option prices. We attribute these to the fact that homeowners sometimes exercise their prepayment options when they are out‐of‐the‐money, and to refinancing transaction costs. Our method is independent of assumptions regarding interest rate processes and the homeowner's prepayment behavior, and it provides a benchmark for testing theoretical prepayment models.
Price Discovery in American and British Property Markets
Authors: Barkham Richard , Geltner David
Published: September 2003

This paper examines the securitized (public) and unsecuritized (private) commercial property markets in the United States and the United Kingdom for evidence of price discovery. Appraisal‐based returns are corrected for smoothing, without presupposing the true returns to be uncorrelated or unpredictable across time. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and property company returns are corrected for leverage. We find evidence that price discovery occurs in the securitized market structure in both countries, and that this price information does not fully transmit to the unsecuritized markets for a year or more. In Britain, the unsecuritized market appears to be more closely and immediately linked to the securitized market than is the case in the U.S.
Real Estate Investment Trusts, Small Stocks and Bid‐ask Spreads
Authors: Nelling Edward F. , Mahoney James M. , Hildebrand Terry L. , Goldstein Michael A.
Published: September 2003

This study examines the liquidity of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), as measured by their bid‐ask spread. We find that REIT spreads have increased over the period 1986–1990, are inversely related to market capitalization, and are similar in magnitude to spreads on other stocks of comparable size. Analysis of variance tests indicate that REIT spreads are similar across equity, mortgage and hybrid asset types. Multivariate regression results indicate that market capitalization is the primary determinant of REIT bid‐ask spreads, and spreads are larger for National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations (NASDAQ) REITs than for New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) REITs. The regression results also indicate that spreads are lower for equity REITs than for mortgage or hybrid REITs, and are inversely related to the fraction of the REIT's shares held by institutional investors. The similarity between REIT spreads and those of other common stocks holds in both bull and bear real estate markets and suggests that, from a liquidity perspective, REITs are similar to other common stocks.
Market Microstructure and Real Estate Returns
Authors: Wang Ko , Erickson John , Gau George , Chan Su Han
Published: September 2003

This paper examines the Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) market microstruc‐ture and its relationship to stock returns. When compared with the general stock market, REIT stocks tend to have a lower level of institutional investor participation and are followed by fewer security analysts. In addition, REIT stocks that have a higher percentage of institutional investors or are followed by more security analysts tend to perform better than other REIT stocks. Our results seem to confirm Jensen's (1993, p. 868) proposition that ownership structure (that is, who owns the firm's securities) affects the value of the firm. Our findings also have implications about the well documented phenomenon that the financial performance of Commingled Real Estate Funds (CREFs) is better than that of REITs.
U.S. Office Market Values During the Past Decade: How Distorted Have Appraisals Been?
Authors: Hendershott Patric H. , Kane Edward J.
Published: September 2003

The leading time series of real estate returns is the Russell‐NCREIF (RN) Property Index. The RN series tracks returns, cash flow plus appraised capital gains, for multiple property types. To evaluate the accuracy of the capital‐gains component of the office‐market return series, this paper constructs two benchmark measures for the present value of projectable office‐market cash flows from 1982 to 1991 and compares these with a real value series based on the RN capital‐gain component. The RN‐based series runs 30% above the highest of the benchmarks throughout the 1986–1989 period. While this overstatement is consistent with the development of a price bubble, failure of the bubble to burst until 1990–1991 is implausible. Real estate experts recognized overvaluation in assessments as early as the spring of 1986.

The RN Office‐Market Index was slow to register price declines when the markets first weakened and then overstated the rate of decline once the market began to bottom out. This pattern likely reflects incentives for appraisers to smooth potentially temporary price volatility and for investment managers to maintain appraised values in declining markets. It traces as well as to systematic differences in the character and condition of the properties that lend to trade at different stages of the real estate cycle. These incentives and differences provide reason to believe that other RN indexes were similarly distorted.
Gains From Diversifying Into Real Estate: Three Decades of Portfolio Returns Based on the Dynamic Investment Model
Authors: Grauer Robert R. , Hakansson Nils H.
Published: September 2003

This paper compares the investment policies and returns for portfolios of stocks and bonds with and without up to three categories of real estate. Both domestic and global settings are examined, with and without the possibility of leverage. The portfolios were generated via the dynamic investment model based on the empirical probability assessment approach applied to past (joint) realizations of returns, both with and without correction for “smoothing” in the real estate data series. Our principal findings are: (1) the gains from adding real estate, on a semi‐passive (equal‐weighted) basis, to portfolios of either U.S. or global financial assets were relatively modest; in contrast, (2) the gains from adding real estate to the universe of U.S. financial assets under an active strategy were rather large (in some cases highly statistically significant), especially for the very risk‐averse strategies; (3) the gains from adding U.S. real estate to a universe of global financial assets under an active strategy were mixed, although generally favorable for the highly risk‐averse strategies; (4) correcting for second‐moment smoothing in the real estate returns series had a relatively small impact for the more risk‐tolerant strategies; and (5) there was some evidence that desmoothing resulted in improved probability estimates.
The Housing Market and Real Estate Brokers
Authors: Mantrala Suryamani , Zabel Edward
Published: September 2003

The major development in this paper concerns the failure, in earlier studies, to consider interaction between alternative methods of arranging sales in the housing market. A seller may market a house by direct negotiations with buyers, without the intermediation of real estate brokers, or by listing the house with a broker. A rational seller would choose the option which offers the higher expected return on the house. In a sequence of models we argue that the seller's option of a method of sale induces competitive pressure in the choice of the commission rate by the broker. We also consider the split rate in a multiple listing system, ease of entry of brokers and the cartel hypothesis as applied to brokers. We conclude that the competitive pressure of direct negotiations between sellers and buyers, relative free entry of brokers and the inappropri‐ateness of the cartel hypothesis cast serious doubt about a general consensus of opinion that the brokerage system is characterized by price fixing, excessive commissions and excessive marketing costs.
Tax Rules and the Sale and Leaseback of Corporate Real Estate
Authors: Alvayay Jaime R. , Rutherford Ronald C. , Smith William S.
Published: September 2003

This study examines the effect of the sale and leaseback of corporate real estate on the stock prices of the selling firms. We ask whether the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA 1986) had a negative impact on the market valuation effects of corporate sale and leasebacks. The results of the comparative statics analysis predict that the net present value of the lessee should be negatively related to the tax depreciation recovery life for the lessor and to the marginal ordinary income tax rate of the marginal holder of commercial mortgage debt. However, it should be positively related to the marginal tax rate of the equityholder of the corporate lessee. Changes in the marginal ordinary income tax rates of the lessor and the corporate lessee have an ambiguous effect on the equity value of the corporate lessee. Nevertheless, results of simulation analyses suggest that the relationship between the net present value of the lessee and each of the tax rates of the lessor and corporate lessee is negative. The empirical evidence suggests that subsequent to TRA 1986, the lessee's benefits associated with sale and leaseback transactions have decreased.
ARM Wrestling: Valuing Adjustable Rate Mortgages Indexed to the Eleventh District Cost of Funds
Authors: Stanton Richard , Wallace Nancy
Published: September 2003

This article analyzes adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) based on the Eleventh District Cost of Funds Index (EDCOFI). The behavior of EDCOFI was examined over the period 1981–1993. Adjustments in this index lag substantially behind term structure fluctuations. Also, the seasonality and days‐in‐the‐month effects noted by previous authors are really symptoms of a January effect. A finite difference valuation algorithm was developed which accounts for all usual ARM contractual features, in addition to the dynamics of EDCOFI. This pricing algorithm allows us to determine endogenously the optimal prepayment strategy for mortgage holders, and hence the value of their prepayment options. The dynamics of EDCOFI give significant value to this option, typically around 0.5% of the remaining principal on the loan.
The Strategic Role of Listing Price in Marketing Real Estate: Theory and Evidence
Authors: Yavas Abdullah , Yang Shiawee
Published: September 2003

The seller of a real estate property and his broker have two primary goals: to sell the properly for as high a price as possible and as quickly as possible. While these are separate objectives, they are closely related through the listing price of the seller. The listing price affects how long it takes to find a buyer (i.e., Time On the Market = TOM), and TOM influences the price that results from the bargaining between the seller and the buyer. This leaves the seller and his agent with an important question: What is the optimal price to be asked for the property? The objective of this research is to provide a theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of listing price on TOM and the transaction price.
Renegotiation of Listing Contracts, Seller Opportunism and Efficiency: An Economic Analysis
Authors: Miceli Thomas J.
Published: September 2003

When a property owner engages a real estate broker to sell his or her property, the parties enter into a listing contract which entitles the broker to a commission if a ready, willing and able buyer is found before the contract expires. While a limit on the duration of the contract provides the broker with an incentive to work hard to find a buyer, it also creates the potential for seller opportunism. In particular, sellers have an incentive to renegotiate a lower commission as the end of the contract approaches. The paper concludes that, from an efficiency perspective, courts should generally enforce such renegotiations, given that transaction costs between brokers and sellers are ordinarily low.
Captive Financing Arrangements and Information Asymmetry: The Case of REITs
Authors: Wei Peihwang , Hsieh Cheng‐Ho , Sirmans C. F.
Published: September 2003

For the sample period of 1985 and 1986, captive real estate investments trusts (REITs) have a larger bid‐ask spread than noncaptive REITs, after controlling for trading volume, price volatility, insider holdings, institutional holdings and firm size. Based on the bid‐ask spread literature, the results suggest that captive firms are subject to a greater degree of information asymmetry. This implies a higher cost of capital for captive firms. The evidence here and the trend toward self‐administered REITs imply that information asymmetry and conflicts of interests within REITs are priced.
Privatized Default Risk and Real Estate Recessions: The U.K. Mortgage Market
Authors: Chinloy Peter
Published: September 2003

A mortgage pricing model is developed when a borrower goes through a series of distress states, including delinquency, long‐term nonpayment and ultimate default. These steps are sequential, and depend on prices and alternatives faced by the borrower. The multistate default model is applied to the mortgage market in the United Kingdom. As a byproduct, a pricing structure for the U.K. endowment mortgage, which combines a good and a life insurance policy, is developed. Income and liquidity constraints are shown to affect the decision to keep a mortgage current in different states of distress. Solvent borrowers may thus keep their mortgages current, even when equity is negative.
Regional Economic Stability and Mortgage Default Risk in the Netherlands
Authors: Eichholtz Piet M.A.
Published: September 2003

This paper investigates the relationship between regional economic diversification and stability, and residential mortgage default risk in the Netherlands. To describe and measure regional economic diversity and stability, methods from both the regional economics and the industrial economics literature are used. All measures are based on regional employment characteristics. Mortgage default rates were obtained from a database of the population of insured mortgage defaults in the Netherlands from 1983 through 1990. To test the relationship between the measures and mortgage default risk, cross sectional Seemingly Unrelated Regression was used. The paper concludes that the employed measures explain regional mortgage default rates to a significant extent, and that stability measures outperform diversity measures.
Home Ownership Finance in Austria and Germany
Authors: Deutsch Edwin , Tomann Horst
Published: September 2003

This paper studies the financial barriers to ownership entry in Austria and Germany. In both countries the financial institutions are similar but there are differences as to public assistance, mortgage markets and risk allocation. Various risk shifting mechanisms between borrowers, banking and the state, and their impacts on social costs and social efficiency, are discussed. The findings indicate possible credit‐rationing as an outcome of the current securitization methods used in Austrian and German bank intermediation and their interaction with subsidy and tax allowance instruments. The existing entry barriers have raised concerns among the current decision makers and may initiate financial reforms in the near future.
Credit Restrictions and the Market for Commercial Real Estate Loans
Authors: Ambrose Brent W. , Benjamin John , Chinloy Peter
Published: September 2003

This paper develops a model of the market for commercial real estate loans based on the variables used by investors and lenders in property decision‐making: the income capitalization (cap) rate, the debt‐coverage ratio and the loan‐to‐value ratio. Empirical results for aggregate United States real estate originations and commitments for 1970–93 indicate that loan demand is sensitive to the cap rate and to building permit issuance. The dominant criterion used by lenders is the debt‐coverage ratio as opposed to the loan‐to‐value ratio, a finding which may have implications for underwriting standards and credit policy.
Throwing Good Money After Bad? Cash Infusions and Distressed Real Estate
Authors: Cornell Bradford , Longstaff Francis A. , Schwartz Eduardo S.
Published: September 2003

When a leveraged real estate project experience cash‐flow problems, the owner must either inject additional cash or default on the mortgage. We show that it is not optimal for the owner to default as soon as net cash flow becomes negative. Surprisingly, the owner can expropriate some of the mortgage lender's wealth by injecting cash and continuing to pay interest. When the owner has cash constraints, outside investors may be able to extract significant economic rents by financing distressed real estate projects. These results have interesting implications for mortgage lending and the pattern of real estate transaction volume.
The Borrower's Choice of Fixed and Adjustable Rate Mortgages in the Presence of Nominal and Real Shocks
Authors: Szerb László
Published: September 2003

This paper concerns the conditions under which borrowers select fixed and adjustable rate mortgages. The novelty of the paper lies in its capability to analyze the effect of nominal and real shocks separately. The fixed rate mortgage (FRM) versus the adjustable rate mortgage (ARM) choice is determined by the expected real interest rate differential, initial wealth, income, expected real and nominal income risk exposure—measured by different parameters—the value of the house, the appreciation of the house and the influence of the variance of nominal and real shocks. Results differ according to whether or not borrowers are restricted by the loan‐to‐value constraint.
Bank Regulatory Agreements and Real Estate Lending
Authors: Peek Joe , Rosengren Eric S.
Published: September 2003

Recent studies have found that banks with low capital ratios have significantly decreased their lending to the real estate sector. This correlation between real estate lending and bank capital could be the result of voluntary decisions by banks to recapitalize, or it could be the result of direct actions taken by bank regulators. We find that banks with low capital ratios reduce their real estate lending substantially more after formal regulatory actions have been initiated by regulators. Furthermore, this reduction in lending is particularly large for the categories of real estate borrowers most likely to be bank dependent.