Mathematical model for forecasting the desadaptation of military personnel of the navy according to the results of psychological testing: retrospective study
Authors: Chebotareva N. V. , Levchenko Z. A. , Syrtsev A. V. , Dnov K. V. , Gabueva F. A. , Yatmanov A. N. 
Published: October 2022

INTRODUCTION: Disadaptation to the conditions of military service is manifested in young recruits in the first 1– 2 months of service, in graduates of training military units — within 2–4 weeks after arrival, and in contract military personnel — during the first three months of service. The effectiveness of the prevention of these risks primarily depends on the quality of the study of military personnel, the adoption of the necessary measures for the early identification of persons with unstable mentality, deviations in physical development and mental health.

OBJECTIVE: to develop a mathematical model for predicting the maladjustment of the military personnel of the navy.

MATERIALS AND METHODS: 307 men, conscripts aged 18–23 years old in the joint training center of the Navy were examined. 14 of them with objective signs of maladjustment. The following methods were used: a questionnaire of volitional self-control, a technique for diagnosing a dominant mental state, a test «Communicative and organizational inclinations», a brief orientation test, a multifactorial personality questionnaire «Adaptiveness», a questionnaire for character traits of an adult, a test for determining a tendency to deviant behavior, a test «Forecast-2».

RESULTS: When performing discriminant analysis using the «forward step by step» method, a highly informative model was obtained: Lambda Wilks: 0.82590 approx. F(7.299)=9.0041 p<0.0001. Linear classification function «Norm»=–47.1631+2.6336×«Personal adaptive potential»+1.1769×«Self-control»+2.3582×«Tendency to overcome norms and rules»+0.1035×«Behavioral regulation»+0.6821×«Social desirability»–0.1497×«Emotional stability»+7.8663×«Number of solved intelligence tasks». Linear classification function «Disadaptation»=–44.6142+1.6254×«Personal adaptive potential»+0.5151×«Self-control»+1.9143×«Tendency to overcome norms and rules»+0.5895×«Behavioral regulation+0.1439×«Social Desirability»+0.1439×«Emotional Stability»+8.5341×«Number of Solved Intelligence Tasks». DISCUSSION: Predictors of maladjustment in the navy is a combination of indicators: personal adaptive potential and behavioral regulation of the Adaptability method, the self-control subscale of the volitional self-control questionnaire, the indicator of the propensity to overcome the norms and rules of the test for determining the propensity for deviant behavior, the scale of emotional stability and the scale of orientation toward social the desirability of a methodology for diagnosing a dominant mental state, the number of completed tasks of a short orientation test. >< 0.0001. Linear classification function «Norm»=–47.1631+2.6336×«Personal adaptive potential»+1.1769×«Self-control»+2.3582×«Tendency to overcome norms and rules»+0.1035×«Behavioral regulation»+0.6821×«Social desirability»–0.1497×«Emotional stability»+7.8663×«Number of solved intelligence tasks». Linear classification function «Disadaptation»=–44.6142+1.6254×«Personal adaptive potential»+0.5151×«Self-control»+1.9143×«Tendency to overcome norms and rules»+0.5895×«Behavioral regulation+0.1439×«Social Desirability»+0.1439×«Emotional Stability»+8.5341×«Number of Solved Intelligence Tasks».

DISCUSSION: Predictors of maladjustment in the navy is a combination of indicators: personal adaptive potential and behavioral regulation of the Adaptability method, the self-control subscale of the volitional self-control questionnaire, the indicator of the propensity to overcome the norms and rules of the test for determining the propensity for deviant behavior, the scale of emotional stability and the scale of orientation toward social the desirability of a methodology for diagnosing a dominant mental state, the number of completed tasks of a short orientation test.

CONCLUSION: The developed mathematical model for predicting maladjustment of military personnel of the navy is expedient to use when conducting medical and psychological support for conscripts.