Risk stratification of surgical and cardiovascular complications in non-cardiac surgery: prognostic value of recommended scales
Authors: Murashko S. S. , Berns S. A. , Pasechnik I. N. 
Published: August 2024

Aim. To assess the prognostic value of current scales and indices for risk stratification of any surgical and cardiovascular complications (CVC) in patients undergoing non-cardiac surgical interventions.

Material and methods. This single-center cohort retrospective study was conducted in patients who underwent non-cardiac surgery in 2018 and 2020. Surgical postoperative complications (POCs) were assessed according to the Clavien-Dindo classification. CVCs included any cardio-vascular events (CVEs), major adverse cardiac events (MACE), ST-T abnormalities on the electrocardiogram (ECG), decompensated heart failure (HF), arrhythmias, episodes of hypotension or hypertension, delirium, bleeding, thromboembolic events (TEEs). Risk stratification of POCs was carried out using recommended prognostic scales and indices. Their prognostic significance was assessed using ROC analysis with assessment of the area under the curve (AUC).

Results. POC risk stratification was performed in 2937 patients. There was following prognostic value of scales and indices: Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enUmeration of Mortality and morbidity (POSSUM) score — AUC of 0,990, 0,808, 0,825, 0,841, 0,808, 0,793, 0,701, 0,776, 0,744 in predicting Clavien-Dindo grade 5, 4, HF, delirium, TEEs, MACE, ST-T abnormalities, arrhythmias, bleeding, respectively; Surgical Outcome Risk Tool (SORT) — AUC of 0,973, 0,740, 0,890, 0,763, 0,721, 0,716, 0,700 in predicting Clavien-Dindo grade 5, 4, delirium, MACE, HF, arrhythmia, TEEs, respectively; American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) — AUC of 0,648, 0,600, 0,658 for HF, ST-T abnormalities, arrhythmias, respectively; Charlson comorbidity index — AUC of 0,819, 0,950, 0,789, 0,788, 0,706, 0,771, 0,898 in predicting Clavien-Dindo grade 5, 4, MACE, HF, ST-T abnormalities, arrhythmias, delirium; surgical risk score associated with the risk of cardiac events — AUC of 0,989, 0,887, 0,728 for Clavien-Dindo grade 3, 5, MACE, respectively; reconstructed Revised Cardiac Risk Index (rRCRI) — AUC of 0,916 and 0,979, 0,762, 0,741, 0,737 in predicting Clavien-Dindo grade 3, 5, HF, arrhythmia, delirium, respectively; National Surgical Quality Improvement Program Myocardial Infarction & Cardiac Arrest (NSQIP MICA) — AUC of 0,705, 0,757, 0,718 for arrhythmia, delirium, TEEs, respectively; total cardiovascular risk according to 2022 European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines — AUC of 0,942, 0,726, 0,701, 0,748, 0,785 for Clavien-Dindo grade 5, MACE, ST-T abnormalities, arrhythmias, delirium, respectively; Caprini score — AUC of 0,718 and Venous ThromboEmbolism and Bleeding (VTE-Bleed) — AUC of 0,722 in predicting TEEs; simplified Bleeding Independently associated with Mortality after noncardiac Surgery (BIMS) index — AUC of 0,729 for stratification of bleeding. In assessment of total risk of Clavien-Dindo surgical complications and any CVEs, none of the scales showed a predictive value of >0,7.

Conclusion. Any CVE stratification requires improvement of current tools and development of novel prognostic tools.