(Invited) Techno-Economic Analysis on Near-Term and Future Projections of Levelized Cost of Hydrogen for Low-Temperature Water Electrolysis Technologies
Authors: Acevedo Yaset , Huya-Kouadio Jennie , Prosser Jacob , McNamara Kevin , James Brian 
Published: September 2023

Hydrogen is seen as a potential energy intermediary between renewable energy sources and end-use applications including transportation, power, and industrial feedstocks. Core to this approach is low-cost hydrogen generation via water electrolysis. Significant research has been undertaken to improve the electrolysis stack technology, including enhancements in electrical efficiency, materials degradation, and total stack cost. However, relative to the total cost of installing an electrolysis plant, the stack contributes <50% of the initial capital investment. Therefore, from an electrolysis project perspective, the mechanical balance of plant and electrical systems required to operate the plant are equally important to understand.

To explore the near-term and future cost projection for hydrogen production via electrolysis, Strategic Analysis, Inc. (SA) has developed a bottom-up project cost model for Alkaline, Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM), and Anion Exchange Membrane (AEM) electrolysis technologies. This project cost model incorporates: 1) Stack cost, derived from a Design for Manufacturing and Assembly (DFMA) process-based cost model developed by SA, 2) mechanical balance of plant, including process equipment, piping, valves, and instrumentation, derived from equipment quotes, scaling, database values, and Aspen estimates; 3) electrical balance of plant, including wiring, rectification, and electrical infrastructure upgrades, derived from time and material cost correlations; 4) Site Preparation, focused on green field installation; and 5) Construction Overhead, including engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) costs and project contingency. The SA project cost model is fed into a Levelized Cost of Hydrogen (LCOH) model that accounts for electricity and water consumption, in addition to other operating costs, including labor, maintenance, and stack replacements.

The SA project cost model and the LCOH model were used to conceptualize electrolysis system sizes from 100 MW to 1 GW for Alkaline, PEM, and AEM electrolysis systems. From a project perspective, electricity costs contribute 50-80% to the LCOH while capital and maintenance costs contribute the remaining 20-50% to the LCOH. Improvements in stack performance and cost offer incremental improvements in LCOH; however, larger reductions in hydrogen cost will only be possible through optimization of the stack cell voltage and operating current density in conjunction with reductions in net electricity price through integration with low-cost, probably renewable, electricity.

Results from SA’s polarization performance optimization model show that lower cost Alkaline stacks, having somewhat lower performance (than PEM), tend to optimize at lower current densities leading to a larger stack active area, and benefit from low operational voltage to obtain higher conversion efficiencies. Higher cost PEM stacks with higher performance (than Alkaline stacks) tend to optimize at higher current densities to reduce the size/capital cost of the stacks and can afford a lower stack efficiency. Multivariable sensitivity analyses show the statistical variation in capital cost leading to the most likely range in LCOH for each technology. The results of this study provide guidance on where the largest incremental reductions in LCOH can be achieved on a project basis.