The Socioeconomic Repercussions of Achieving Energy Independence
Authors: Alcoser Luis Alberto 
Published: May 2016

This paper presents an innovative technique for the analysis and evaluation of the benefit realized to a country's economy based on achieving energy independence. Noble Energy has recently discovered and is currently developing a substantial natural gas find located offshore Israel. Israel has previously had no petroleum presence and has had to solely rely on energy rich neighbors for energy. Noble Energy's find and subsequent development is of such magnitude that Israel is poised to transition directly from entirely energy dependent to energy independent. This transition will have tremendous socioeconomic repercussions in the country and throughout the region. Principally, the country of Israel can expect a boost to its economy, infrastructure and market position. This paper presents an innovative methodology that can be used to estimate the economic benefits the newly energy independent country can expect. Conclusions based on this comparative analysis are then used to predict the economic repercussions attributable to the anticipated energy independence of Israel. The results of the investigation help quantify the benefits emerging energy countries realize when partnered with industry leading operators.

Introduction

The phrase "energy independence" has become a common phrase used by politicians, analysts and the general public as a way to describe an "ideal" energy condition for a country. It became popular in the 1970's and has remained a goal of every U.S. administration since then. In actuality, there is no such thing as true energy independence as every country is forced to import some type of energy; whether it is nuclear, coal, oil, or natural gas in origin. Today, the term is loosely used to describe a condition where a country does not rely on foreign resources. For the purpose of this paper, we define energy independence as the condition of producing more energy than a country consumes. Countries falling in this category are often referred to as net energy exporters. This means that a country's energy independence is a direct factor of energy creation versus energy consumption. Figure 1 depicts the countries that currently fall into this list.

The primary perceived benefit of being energy independent is that a countries energy supply would theoretically not be threatened by foreign wars, foreign political instability, or foreign economic volatility. This theory has many detractors predominantly because it assumes that an economy and energy industry located therein can be insulated from worldwide market effects.

The only demonstrated result of becoming energy independent is that a country can realize a tangible amount of economic benefit from the production, refining and marketing of hydrocarbons. This realized economic benefit can be quantified by analyzing the increase of a countries gross domestic product (GDP). The GDP is the market value of all final goods and services made within countries borders for a given year. Note that GDP per capita is not a measurement of standard of living in an economy. It can, however be used as such an indicator if it is assumed that all citizens benefit from a countries increased economic production.

Recent major gas discoveries in Israel by Noble Energy and partners have thrust Israel to the precipice of realizing energy independence. This paper analyzes the benefit other countries realized by the increased hydrocarbon production associated with achieving energy independence. The historical analysis also provides a means to predict the kind of economic benefit Israel may realize as there own petroleum industry develops.

What Affects GDP

GDP is primarily affected by the workforce, capital, natural resources and technology. A country that develops an oil and gas sector has a tremendous competitive advantage because it is able to significantly enhance all the factors that determine GDP.