ASSESSMENT OF REGIME RELIABILITY OF ELECTRIC POWER SYSTEM BASED ON THE DEFINITION OF RISK INDEX IN CASE OF FAILURE OF THE LOAD WITH RESPONSIBLE CONSUMERS
Authors:   National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute», Bardyk Yevhen , Bondarenko Oleksandr ,   National Technical University of Ukraine «Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute »
Published: January 2021

Urgency of research. Now there is a steady tendency to increase the accident rate in the electric power systems of Ukraine and other industrialized countries due to aging and exhaustion of the resource of electrical equipment, adverse degradation climatic conditions, electricity liberalization and other reasons. Therefore, it is necessary to develop mathematical models and create software for determining the quantitative indicators of risk of power supply failure of responsible consumers due to failures of electrical equipment of the EPS. Target setting. Usually, to provide the reliability of the EPS, it is designed in such a way that the shutdown of one or more elements at maximum load does not lead to unacceptable deviations of the regime parameters or reduce the load of consumers (criterion N-i). This approach is deterministic, because it does not take into account the probability of accidents and does not provide a quantitative characteristics of the reliability of the EPS. In the context of the development of market relations in the power industry of Ukraine, when the problem of reliability is increasing and it is considered as a service, its quantitative assessment based on the definition of risk is more objective and complete. Actual scientific researches and issue analysis. The latest publications on the development of models for assessing the technical condition, determining the probability of failure of electrical equipment and risk analysis in complex EPS were considered. Uninvestigated parts of general matters defining. In spite of a significant number of papers dedicated to the analysis of the operational reliability of the EPS, there is a problem of complex modeling of the technical condition of electrical equipment and regims of the EPS to determine the risk index as an integral indicator of the operation of the EPS, which is determined by the value of the criticality of failure of individual subsystems, which depends on their probability of failure, recovery time and the severity of losses. The research objective. The purpose of this work is to create a fuzzy mathematical model, algorithm and software to determine the index of risk of violation of the regime of the EPS in case of failure of the individual subsystems with responsible consumers. The statement of basic materials. It is proposed to use the integral index of risk of functioning, the level of which depends on the criticality of failures of individual subsystems of the EPS and in particular, nodes with consumers of different kind and category, when assessing the reliability of the EPS. To solve these problems a fuzzy mathematical model and an algorithm for an aggregated estimation of the EPS index risk in the case of failures of individual subsystems have been constructed. For the test scheme of the EPS, quantitative characteristics of the risk of operation of the EPS in case of failures of electrical equipment and load units with responsible consumers are obtained. Conclusions. Evaluation of the regime reliability of modern EPS is advisable to determine on the basis of the integrated risk index of functioning. A fuzzy mathematical model and an algorithm for the aggregated assessment of the risk index of EPS in case of failures of individual load units due to failures of electrical equipment of EPS are proposed. A complex modeling of the technical condition of electrical equipment and regims of EPS to determine the criticality of failures of individual subsystems with responsible consumers was carried out.