Comparative analysis of the evolution of Life Expectancy in the United Republic of Tanzania, Uganda, and Kenya in 61 years (1960-2021): A secondary data analysis of the World Population Prospects (WPPs) on the three East African countries
Authors: Bamba Gaye , abboud Joelle Abi , Olal Emmanuel , Kitara David Lagoro 
Published: April 2024

Background

Life expectancy at birth (LE0) in Kenya, Uganda, and the United Republic of Tanzania in 1960 was 57, 54, and 42 years, respectively. However, in 2019, LE0had gained in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania to 62.94, 62.99, and 66.99 years, respectively. This study aimed to evaluate and compare the progression of LE0in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania over 61 years (1960-2021).

Methods

Life tables from World Population Prospects (WPPs) were used to calculate LE0for Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania by sex from 1960 to 2021. LE0was contextualized alongside trends in 1960 and 2019. Using decomposition techniques, we examined how each sex contributed to losses or gains in LE0between 1960 and 2021 and the likely contributory factors to LE0losses. RStudio software was used to calculate differences in LE0from one year to another. Linear regression analyses were used to trace the progression of LE0in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania in six decades.

Results

LE0improved from 1960 to 2021 in males and females in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania. The most substantial improvement occurred between 1960-1980 in Kenya and Tanzania while in Uganda between 1960-1970. LE0losses were observed between 1980-2000, and 2020-2021 in Kenya and Tanzania while Uganda experienced losses between 1970-1981; 1989-1993, and 2020-2021. LE0losses in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania were likely a result of deaths related to high infant, maternal, and child mortality rates due to infectious and non-communicable diseases (1990-2021). In Uganda, the political and economic turmoil during Amin’s regime (1971-1979) registered the most substantial LE0losses over the period. In addition, LE0gaps between males and females fluctuated over the years with the highest at 9.5 years in Uganda in 1982 and the lowest at 2.25 years in Kenya in 2001. The fluctuating LE0gaps between males and females has been observed in the three East African countries.

Conclusion

LE0in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania progressively increased from 1960-2021. Males and females showed fluctuating LE0gaps in the last 61 years but females lived longer than males. There were LE0losses between 1970-2000 and between 2020-2021. High infant, maternal, and child mortality rates, and later, the high prevalence of HIV and AIDS, immunizable diseases, and the COVID-19 pandemic were the likely reasons for LE0losses. The COVID-19 pandemic contributed to LE0losses more in Kenya than Tanzania and Uganda likely due to deaths related to the virus itself or the control measures.

LE0losses in Uganda in the 70s were likely due to political and economic turmoil during the brutal Amin’s regime. Even though many studies show LE0gains in Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania over the 61 years, political and economic stability, economic growth, health systems strengthening, control of infectious diseases, and epidemics were critical in the LE0gains. Thus, a more comprehensive study is warranted to assess the actual impact of public health interventions in LE0gains in the three East African countries.