bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Limited Network Connections and the Distribution of Wages
Authors: Arrow Kenneth Joseph , Borzekowski Ron
Published: August 2019

It is well-known that 50% or more of all jobs are obtained through informal channels i.e. connections to family or friends. As well, statistical studies show that observable individual factors account for only about 50% of the very wide variation in earnings. We seek to explain these two facts by assuming that the linking of workers and firms is mediated by limited network connections. The model implies that essentially similar workers can have markedly different wages and further that the inequality of wages is partly explained by variations in the sizes of workers' networks. Our results indicate that differences in the number of ties can induce substantial inequality and can explain roughly 15% of the unexplained variation in wages. We also show that reasonable differences in the average number of links between blacks and whites can explain the disparity in black and white income distributions.
Do Liquidity Constraints Matter for New Entrepreneurs?
Authors: Moore Kevin B.
Published: August 2019

Numerous studies have found a positive relationship between wealth and entering entrepreneurship, and interpret this as evidence of the existence of liquidity constraints. However, recent research has shown that the relationship between wealth and entering entrepreneurship may be non-linear and only significant for high-wealth households; this result cannot be interpreted as evidence of liquidity constraints. Using data from the SCF, we construct a proxy for wealth based on the household's home equity wealth at the time of the entrepreneurial decision. The results provide further evidence that the relationship between wealth and entering entrepreneurship is only significant for high-wealth households and that liquidity constraints do not appear to bind for the majority of new entrepreneurs. Possible explanations for the relationship between wealth and becoming an entrepreneur include lower risk aversion and differences in the types of businesses started by high-wealth households.
Monetary Policy and the Information Content of the Yield Spread
Authors: Feroli Michael
Published: August 2019

This paper demonstrates that the ability of the yield spread to predict output fluctuations is contingent on the monetary authority's reaction function. In particular, expectations of monetary policy actions are crucial for the spread to predict output conditional on the short-rate. Furthermore, numerical experiments suggest that the post-1979 decrease in the yield spread's predictive power is due to a shift in the monetary policy reaction function at that time.
The Long-Run Relationship between House Prices and Rents
Authors: Gallin Joshua Hojvat
Published: August 2019

I show that when house prices are high relative to rents (that is, when the rent-price ratio is low) changes in real rents tend to be larger than usual and changes in real prices tend to be smaller than usual. Standard error-correction models provide inconclusive results about the predictive power of the rent-price ratio at a quarterly frequency. I use a long-horizon regression approach to show that the rent-price ratio helps predict changes in real rents and real prices over three-year periods. This result withstands the inclusion of a measure of the user cost of capital. I show that a long- horizon regression approach can yield biased estimates of the degree of error correction if prices have a unit root but do not follow a random walk. I construct bootstrap distributions to conduct appropriate inference in the presence of this bias. The results lend empirical support to the view that the rent-price ratio is an indicator of valuation in the housing market.
The Liquidity Effect in the Federal Funds Market: Evidence from Daily Open Market Operations
Authors: Carpenter Seth B. , Demiralp Selva
Published: August 2019

We use forecast errors made by the Federal Reserve while preparing open market operations to identify a liquidity effect at a daily frequency in the federal funds market. Unlike Hamilton (1997), we find a liquidity effect on many days of the reserve maintenance period besides settlement day. The effect is non-linear; large changes in supply have a measurable effect, but small changes do not. In addition, a higher aggregate level of reserve balances in the banking system is associated with a smaller liquidity effect during the maintenance period but a larger liquidity effect on the last days of the period.
Housing, Consumption, and Credit Constraints
Authors: Lehnert Andreas
Published: August 2019

I test the credit-market effects of housing wealth shocks by estimating the consumption elasticity of house price shocks among households in different age quintiles. Younger households face faster expected income growth and hence would like to borrow more than older households. I estimate consumption elasticities from housing wealth by age quintile to be {4; 0; 3; 8; 3} percent. As predicted by theory, the youngest group has a higher elasticity of consumption than the next two age quintiles. That the consumption of the age quintile on the verge of retirement is responsive to housing wealth is also not surprising: I show that these households are likeliest to "downsize" their house and thus realize any capital gains.
Alternative Estimates of the Presidential Premium
Authors: Li Canlin , Campbell Sean D.
Published: August 2019

Since the early 1980&#x27;s much research, including the most recent contribution of Santa-Clara and Valkanov (2003), has concluded that there is a stable, robust and significant relationship between Democratic presidential administrations and robust stock returns. Moreover, the difference in returns does not appear to be accompanied by any significant differences in risk across the presidential cycle. These conclusions are largely based on OLS estimates of the difference in returns across the presidential cycle. We re-examine this issue using more efficient estimators of the presidential premium. Specifically, we exploit the considerable and persistent heteroskedasticity in stock returns to construct more efficient weighted least squares (WLS) and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) estimators of the difference in expected excess stock returns across the presidential cycle. Our findings provide considerable contrast to the findings of previous research. Across the different WLS and GARCH estimates we find that the point estimates are considerably smaller than the OLS estimates and fluctuate considerably across different sub samples. We show that the large difference between the WLS, GARCH and OLS estimates is driven by differing stock market performance during very volatile market environments. During periods of elevated market volatility, excess stock returns have been markedly higher under Democratic than Republican administrations. Accordingly, the WLS and GARCH estimators are less sensitive to these episodes than the OLS estimator. Ultimately, these results are consistent with the conclusion that neither risk nor return varies significantly across the presidential cycle.
Econometric Tests of Asset Price Bubbles: Taking Stock
Authors: Gürkaynak Refet S.
Published: August 2019

Can asset price bubbles be detected? This survey of econometric tests of asset price bubbles shows that, despite recent advances, econometric detection of asset price bubbles cannot be achieved with a satisfactory degree of certainty. For each paper that finds evidence of bubbles, there is another one that fits the data equally well without allowing for a bubble. We are still unable to distinguish bubbles from time-varying or regime-switching fundamentals, while many small sample econometrics problems of bubble tests remain unresolved.
Density Selection and Combination Under Model Ambiguity: An Application to Stock Returns
Authors: D'Amico Stefania
Published: August 2019

This paper proposes a method for predicting the probability density of a variable of interest in the presence of model ambiguity. In the first step, each candidate parametric model is estimated minimizing the Kullback-Leibler 'distance' (KLD) from a reference nonparametric density estimate. Given that the KLD represents a measure of uncertainty about the true structure, in the second step, its information content is used to rank and combine the estimated models. The paper shows that the KLD between the nonparametric and the parametric density estimates is asymptotically normally distributed. This result leads to determining the weights in the model combination, using the distribution function of a Normal centered on the average performance of all plausible models. Consequently, the final weight is determined by the ability of a given model to perform better than the average. As such, this combination technique does not require the true structure to belong to the set of competing models
External Habit and the Cyclicality of Expected Stock Returns
Authors: Tallarini Thomas D. , Zhang Harold H.
Published: August 2019

We estimate an equilibrium asset pricing model in which agents' preferences have an unobserved external habit using the efficient method of moments (EMM). Given the estimated structural parameters we examine the cyclical behavior of expected stock returns in the model. We find that the estimated structural parameters imply countercyclical expected stock returns as documented in existing empirical studies. The model, however, is still rejected at the one percent level. Detailed examination of the moment conditions in our estimation indicates that the model performs reasonably well in matching the mean of returns, but it fails to capture the higher order moments.
Using Federal Funds Futures Contracts for Monetary Policy Analysis
Authors: Gürkaynak Refet S.
Published: August 2019

Federal funds futures are popular tools for calculating market-based monetary policy surprises. These surprises are usually thought of as the difference between expected and realized federal funds target rates at the current FOMC meeting. This paper demonstrates the use of federal funds futures contracts to measure how FOMC announcements lead to changes in expected interest rates after future FOMC meetings. Using several 'surprises' at different horizons, timing, level, and slope components of unanticipated policy actions are defined. These three components have differing effects on asset prices that are not captured by the contemporaneous surprise measure.
Post Brown vs. the Board of Education: The Effects of the End of Court-Ordered Desegregation
Authors: Lutz Byron F.
Published: August 2019

In the early 1990s, nearly forty years after Brown v. the Board of Education, three Supreme Court decisions dramaically altered the legal environment for court-ordered desegregation. Lower courts have released numerous school districts from their desegregation plans as a result. Over the same period racial segregation increased in public schools across the country -- a phenomenon which has been termed resegregation. Using a unique dataset, this paper finds that dismissal of a court-ordered desegregation plan results in a gradual, moderate increase in racial segregation and an increase in black dropout rates and black private school attendance. The increased dropout rates and private school attendance are experienced only by districts located outside of the South Census region. There is no evidence of an effect on white student dropout rates or private school attendance rates.
Escaping the Samaritan's Dilemma: Implications of a Dynamic Model of Altruistic Intergenerational Transfers
Authors: Perozek Maria
Published: August 2019

This paper explores how altruistic parents structure transfer rules in response to potential incentive problems and how the investment behavior of children is influenced by these transfer policies. To investigate these issues, I develop a dynamic model of altruistic transfers in which transfers can be tied to the purchase of human capital investment. Numerical solutions are examined to provide insight into the predictions of the model for transfer behavior and investment by family size. The dynamic framework developed in the paper is used to guide the interpretation of data on transfers and education investment by children in the Health and Retirement Survey. The data are consistent with the prediction of the model that children in larger families invest more in education conditional on initial transfers.
Paper or Plastic? The Effect of Time on the Use of Check and Debit Cards at Grocery Stores
Authors: Klee Elizabeth
Published: August 2019

Time is a significant cost of conducting transactions, and theoretical models predict that transactions costs significantly affect the type of media of exchange buyers use. However, there is little empirical work documenting the magnitude of this effect. This paper uses grocery store scanner data to examine how time affects consumer choices of checks and debit cards. On average, check transactions take thirty percent longer than debit card transactions. This time difference is a significant factor in the choice to use a debit card over a check and offers empirical evidence for transactions costs affecting the use of media of exchange.
Do Homeowners Know Their House Values and Mortgage Terms?
Authors: Pence Karen M. , Bucks Brian
Published: August 2019

To assess whether homeowners know their house values and mortgage terms, we compare the distributions of these variables in the household-reported 2001 Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF) to the distributions in lender-reported data. We also examine the share of SCF respondents who report not knowing these variables. We find that most homeowners appear to report their house values and broad mortgage terms reasonably accurately. Some adjustable-rate mortgage borrowers, though, and especially those with below-median income, appear to underestimate or not know how much their interest rates could change.
Real-time Model Uncertainty in the United States: The Fed from 1996-2003
Authors: Tetlow Robert , Ironside Brian
Published: August 2019

We study 30 vintages of FRB/US, the principal macro model used by the Federal Reserve Board staff for forecasting and policy analysis. To do this, we exploit archives of the model code, coefficients, baseline databases and stochastic shock sets stored after each FOMC meeting from the model&#x27;s inception in July 1996 until November 2003. The period of study was one of important changes in the U.S. economy with a productivity boom, a stock market boom and bust, a recession, the Asia crisis, the Russian debt default, and an abrupt change in fiscal policy. We document the surprisingly large and consequential changes in model properties that occurred during this period and compute optimal Taylor-type rules for each vintage. We compare these optimal rules against plausible alternatives. Model uncertainty is shown to be a substantial problem; the efficacy of purportedly optimal policy rules should not be taken on faith. We also find that previous findings that simple rules are robust to model u
Credit Market Competition and Capital Regulation
Authors: Allen Franklin , Carletti Elena , Marquez Robert
Published: August 2019

Market discipline for financial institutions can be imposed not only from the liability side, as has often been stressed in the literature on the use of subordinated debt, but also from the asset side. This will be particularly true if good lending opportunities are in short supply, so that banks have to compete for projects. In such a setting, borrowers may demand that banks commit to monitoring by requiring that they use some of their own capital in lending, thus creating an asset market-based incentive for banks to hold capital. Borrowers can also provide banks with incentives to monitor by allowing them to reap some of the benefits from the loans, which accure only if the loans are in fact paid off. Since borrowers do not fully internalize the cost of raising capital to the banks, the level of capital demanded by market participants may be above the one chosen by a regulator, even when capital is a relatively costly source of funds. This implies that the capital requirement may not be binding, as recent evidence seems to indicate.
A Fully-Rational Liquidity-Based Theory of IPO Underpricing and Underperformance
Authors: Pritsker Matthew
Published: August 2019

I present a fully-rational symmetric-information model of an IPO, and a dynamic imperfectly competitive model of trading in the IPO aftermarket. The model helps to explain IPO underpricing, underperformance, and why share allocations favor large institutional investors. In the model, underwriters need to sell a fixed number of shares at the IPO or in the aftermarket. To maximize revenue and avoid selling into the aftermarket where they can be exploited by large investors, underwriters distort share allocations towards investors with market power, and set the IPO offer price below the aftermarket trading price. Large investors who receive IPO share allocations sell them slowly afterwards to reduce their trade's price-impact. This curtails the shares that are available to small price-taking investors, causing them to bid up prices and bid down returns. In some simulations, the distorted share allocations and slow unwinding behavior generate post-IPO return underperformance that persists
The Choice at the Checkout: Competition Among Payment Instruments
Authors: Borzekowski Ron , Kiser Elizabeth K.
Published: August 2019

Dramatic changes have occurred in the U.S. payment system over the past two decades, most notably an explosion in electronic card-based payments. Not surprisingly, this shift has been accompanied by a series of policy debates, all of which hinge critically on understanding consumer behavior at the point of sale. Using a new nationally representative survey, we transform consumers' responses to open-ended questions on reasons for using debit cards to estimate a characteristics-based discrete-choice demand model that includes debit cards, cash, checks, and credit cards. Market shares computed using this model line up well with aggregate shares from other sources. The estimates are used to conduct several counterfactual experiments that predict consumer responses to alternative payment choices. We find that consumers respond strongly to elapsed time at the checkout counter and to whether the payment instrument draws from debt or liquidity. In addition, substitution patterns vary substantially with demographics. New "contactless" payment methods designed to replace debit cards are predicted to draw market share from cash, checks, and credit, in that order. Finally, although we find an effect of cohort on payment technology adoption, this effect is unlikely to diminish substantially over a 10-year horizon.
A Retrospective Evaluation of the Effects of Temporary Partial Expensing
Authors: Cohen Darrel , Cummins Jason G.
Published: August 2019

This paper examines how business investment responded to temporary partial expensing, first enacted in 2002 and expanded in 2003. In principle, partial expensing boosted the incentive to invest which should have had a discernable impact on spending. However, the tax changes did not occur in a vacuum, so it is challenging to isolate their impact. Our empirical approach exploits a feature of the tax change which, under certain assumptions, allows us to cleanly estimate its impact. Specifically, partial expensing provided relatively generous tax treatment for long-lived assets. We use this insight in order to construct a difference-in-difference estimator of the tax effects. In addition, the standard model of investment with capital adjustment costs predicts a run up in investment spending prior to expiration and a pothole just after. Our examination of the details of expenditure patterns before, during, and after partial expensing using both monthly and quarterly data suggests considerable ambiguity as to whether the model's predictions were borne out. In addition, anecdotal evidence provides only limited support for the effectiveness of temporary partial expensing.
Intangible Capital and Economic Growth
Authors: Corrado Carol , Hulten Charles R. , Sichel Daniel E.
Published: August 2019

Published macroeconomic data traditionally exclude most intangible investment from measured GDP. This situation is beginning to change, but our estimates suggest that as much as $800 billion is still excluded from U.S. published data (as of 2003), and that this leads to the exclusion of more than $3 trillion of business intangible capital stock. To assess the importance of this omission, we add intangible capital to the standard sources-of-growth framework used by the BLS, and find that the inclusion of our list of intangible assets makes a significant difference in the observed patterns of U.S. economic growth. The rate of change of output per worker increases more rapidly when intangibles are counted as capital, and capital deepening becomes the unambiguously dominant source of growth in labor productivity. The role of multifactor productivity is correspondingly diminished, and labor&#x27;s income share is found to have decreased significantly over the last 50 years.
A Trend and Variance Decomposition of the Rent-Price Ratio in Housing Markets
Authors: Davis Morris A. , Gallin Joshua Hojvat , Campbell Sean D. , Martin Robert F.
Published: August 2019

We use the dynamic Gordon-growth model to decompose the rent-price ratio for owner-occupied housing in the U.S., four Census regions, and twenty-three metropolitan areas into three components: The expected present value of real rental growth, real interest rates, and future housing premia. We use these components to decompose the trend and variance in rent-price ratios for 1975-2005, for an early sub-sample (1975-1996), and for the recent housing boom (1997-2005). We have three main findings. First, variation in expected future real rents accounts for a small share of variation in our sample rent-price ratios; variation in real interest rates and housing premia account for most of the variability. Second, expected future real rates and housing premia were so strongly negatively correlated prior to 1997 that changes to real interest rates did not affect the rent-price ratio. After 1997, rates and premia have been positively correlated, and the decline in the rent-price ratio that has occurred in almost every geographic area in our sample since 1997 reflects both declining real rates and declining premia. Third, we show that in the recent housing boom, 65 percent of the decline in the aggregate rent-price ratio is due to a declining housing premium.
The Relocation Decisions of Working Couples
Authors: Pingle Jonathan F.
Published: August 2019

Most prime-age married couples in the U.S. today have two labor force participants. Migration decisions are more complicated for two-earner couples than for one-earner couples because any gain from moving that accrues to one spouse must be great enough to offset any loss to the other spouse. This paper estimates the extent to which internal migration is depressed by rising earnings equality among spouses. The results indicate that couples' migration propensities are substantially lower the more equal spouses' labor incomes.
Realized Jumps on Financial Markets and Predicting Credit Spreads
Authors: Tauchen George , Zhou Hao
Published: August 2019

This paper extends the jump detection method based on bi-power variation to identify realized jumps on financial markets and to estimate parametrically the jump intensity, mean, and variance. Finite sample evidence suggests that jump parameters can be accurately estimated and that the statistical inferences can be reliable, assuming that jumps are rare and large. Applications to equity market, treasury bond, and exchange rate reveal important differences in jump frequencies and volatilities across asset classes over time. For investment grade bond spread indices, the estimated jump volatility has more forecasting power than interest rate factors and volatility factors including option-implied volatility, with control for systematic risk factors. A market jump risk factor seems to capture the low frequency movements in credit spreads.
Social Security's Delayed Retirement Credit and the Labor Supply of Older Men
Authors: Pingle Jonathan F.
Published: August 2019

This paper presents estimates of the impact of Social Security's Delayed Retirement Credit on the employment rates of older men. The credit raises lifetime social security benefit payments for recipients who delay receiving benefits after age 65 and offers a rare and important test of whether labor supply incentives built in to the program can promote work at older ages. The results suggest that the increased incentives raised employment among workers over age 65. In addition, the recent increases in social security's Normal Retirement Age also appear to be pushing up labor supply.
The Profitability of Small, Single-Market Banks In an Era of Multimarket Banking
Authors: Hannan Timothy H. , Prager Robin A.
Published: August 2019

This paper examines the relationship between multimarket bank presence and the profitability (and therefore viability) of small, single-market banks. We find that increased presence of multimarket banks is associated with a significant reduction in the profitability of small, single-market banks operating in rural banking markets, but not of those operating in urban markets. We explore this relationship by breaking single-market bank profits down into several components in order to shed light on the mechanisms through which multimarket bank presence might influence the profitability of single-market banks.
The Contribution of Multinational Corporations to U.S. Productivity Growth, 1977-2000
Authors: Corrado Carol , Lengermann Paul , Slifman Lawrence
Published: August 2019

In this paper, we decompose aggregate labor productivity growth in order to gauge the relative importance of multinational corporations (MNCs) to the economic performance of the United States in the 1990s. As we define it, the MNC sector refers to the U.S. activities of multinational corporations operating in the United States. We develop productivity estimates for MNCs using (1) published and unpublished industry level data from two surveys conducted by the Bureau of Economic Analysis and (2) productivity data for industries and major sectors from the FRB productivity system (Bartelsman and Beaulieu 2003, 2004). The resulting MNC sector accounted for about 40 percent of the gross product of all nonfinancial corporations and all of the pickup in nonfinancial corporate labor productivity in the late 1990s. Accordingly, the MNC sector accounted for more than half of the acceleration in labor productivity growth of all U.S. nonfarm private businesses.
Corporate Asset Purchases and Sales: Theory and Evidence
Authors: Warusawitharana Missaka
Published: August 2019

Purchases and sales of operating assets by firms generated $162 billion for shareholders over the past 20 years. This contrasts sharply with the evidence on mergers. This paper characterizes the behavior of value-maximizing firms, which may grow organically, purchase existing assets or sell assets. The approach yields an endogenous selection model that links asset purchases and sales to fundamental properties of the firm. Empirical tests confirm the predictions of the model. In particular, return on assets and size strongly predict when firms purchase or sell assets, and the transaction size covaries with the value of capital employed by the firm. These findings indicate that corporate asset purchases and sales are consistent with efficient investment decisions.
Bank Commercial Loan Fair Value Practices
Authors: Tschirhart John , O'Brien James M. , Moise Michael , Yang Emily
Published: August 2019

Recent accounting changes, for the first time, permit the use of fair value in the primary financial statements for held-to-maturity (HTM) bank loans. While the use of fair value has historically attracted significant discussion and debate, there is little information in the public domain on how banks would measure fair value or use it in loan management. This study presents and analyzes results from in-depth discussions with seven large internationally-active banks on their fair value use and measurement for HTM commercial loans and commitments. The objectives of the discussions and those of the study are to: identify the extent to which fair value is used for HTM commercial loan facilities and how it is used; describe valuation methodologies used and consider the roles of market price sources and modeling and their relative importance in fair value estimation; consider model validation and price verification; draw conclusions as permitted and suggest areas for future research.
Federal Home Loan Bank Advances and Commercial Bank Portfolio Composition
Authors: Frame W. Scott , Hancock Diana , Passmore Wayne
Published: August 2019

The primary mission of the 12 cooperatively owned Federal Home Loan Banks (FHLBs) is to provide their members financial products and services to assist and enhance member housing finance. In this paper, we consider the role of the FHLBs' traditional product--'advances,' or collateralized loans to members--in stabilizing commercial bank members' residential mortgage lending activities. Our theoretical model shows that using membership criteria (such as a minimum of 10 percent of the portfolio being in mortgage-related assets) or using mortgage-related assets as collateral does not ensure that FHLB advances will be put to use for stabilizing members' financing of housing. Indeed, our model demonstrates that advances--a relatively low cost managed liability--are most likely to influence lending only when such liabilities are used to finance 'relationship' loans (i.e., loans to bank-dependent borrowers) that will be held on a bank's balance sheet and are least likely to influence lending for loans where the loan rate is heavily influenced by securitization activities, like mortgages. Using panel vector autoregression (VAR) techniques, we estimate recent dynamic responses of U.S. bank portfolios to FHLB advance shocks, to bank lending shocks, and to macroeconomic shocks. Our empirical findings are consistent with the predictions of our theoretical model. First, recent bank portfolio responses to FHLB advance shocks are of similar magnitude for mortgages, for commercial and industrial loans, and for other real estate loans. This suggests that advances are just as likely to fund other types of bank credit as to fund single-family mortgages. Second, unexpected changes in all types of bank lending are accommodated using FHLB advances. Third, FHLB advances do not appear to reduce variability in bank residential mortgage lending resulting from macroeconomic shocks. However, some banks appear to have used FHLB advances to reduce variability in commercial and industrial lending in response to such macroeconomic shocks. Thus, relatively low cost managed liabilities may be used to finance 'relationship' borrowers (which are typically business borrowers, rather than residential mortgage borrowers), although this use for advances appears to have diminished over time.
An Efficiency Perspective on the Gains from Mergers and Asset Purchases
Authors: Ray Sugata , Warusawitharana Missaka
Published: August 2019

A simple efficiency-based view states that acquisitions shift assets to more productive owners. This implies that expected returns from acquisitions increase with transaction value. We propose using the sensitivity of abnormal returns to scaled transaction value as a measure of efficiency gains. Using this method, we find that the average acquirer obtains an increase of 3%-5% in the value of the acquired assets. However, efficiency gains vary sharply across acquirer and deal characteristics. We find statistical significance for interactions of relative value and variables known to affect acquirer normal returns. The inclusion of the interaction term sometimes drives away the significance of the variable of interest. These results suggest that improving productivity via capital reallocation plays an important role in understanding acquirer returns from acquisitions.
Operational Problems and Aggregate Uncertainty in the Federal Funds Market
Authors: Klee Elizabeth
Published: August 2019

This paper uses operational problems at commercial banks in sending Fedwire payments as a proxy for aggregate uncertainty in end-of-day Fed account positions and then examines funds market behavior on those days. The results suggest that increased uncertainty is associated with a deviation of the federal funds rate from the FOMCâ s target rate, the magnitude depending on the severity of the difficulty, the payment volume of the affected participant, and the time of day. Moreover, discount window borrowing picks up on days with operational difficulties. These effects are generally transitory, and markets revert back to previous levels the next day.
Documentation of the Research and Statistics Division's Estimated DSGE Model of the U.S. Economy: 2006 Version
Authors: Edge Rochelle M. , Kiley Michael T. , Laforte Jean-Philippe
Published: August 2019

This paper provides documentation for the large-scale estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy used in Edge, Kiley, and Laforte (2007). The model represents part of an ongoing research project (the Federal Reserve Board's Estimated, Dynamic, Optimization-based--FRB/EDO--model project) in the Macroeconomic and Quantitative Studies section of the Federal Reserve Board aimed at developing a DSGE model that can be used to address practical policy questions and the model documented here is the version that was current at the end of 2006. The paper discusses the model's specification, estimated parameters, and key properties.
Imperfect Monitoring and the Discounting of Inside Money
Authors: Mills David C.
Published: August 2019

One of the fundamental questions concerning inside money is whether its issuers should be regulated and how. This paper evaluates the efficiency of one prevalent regulatory recommendation -- a requirement that private issuers redeem inside money on demand at par -- in a random-matching model of money where the issuers of inside money are only imperfectly monitored. I find that for sufficiently imperfect monitoring, a par redemption requirement leads to lower social welfare than if private money were redeemed at a discount. A central message of the paper is that if inside money and outside money are not perfect substitutes for one another, as is the case if there is sufficiently imperfect monitoring, a par redemption requirement may not be socially optimal because such a requirement effectively binds them to circulate as if they are. Such an outcome is a version of Gresham's law that bad money drives out good money.
Hyperbolic Discounting and Uniform Savings Floors
Authors: Malin Benjamin
Published: August 2019

Previous research suggests that, in partial equilibrium, individuals whose decision-making exhibits a present-bias--such as hyperbolic discounters who tend to over-consume--will be in favor of having a floor imposed on their savings. In this paper, I show it is quite difficult for the introduction of a savings floor to be Pareto-improving in general equilibrium. Indeed, a necessary condition for the floor to be Pareto-improving is that it is high enough to be binding for all individuals. Even in that case, because the equilibrium interest rate is affected by the level of the savings floor, some individuals may prefer to commit to a future time path of consumption by facing a high interest rate (and no floor) rather than a high floor.
Paying to Save: Tax Withholding and Asset Allocation Among Low-and Moderate-Income Taxpayers
Authors: Barr Michael S. , Dokko Jane K.
Published: August 2019

We analyze the phenomenon that low-and moderate-income (LMI) tax filers exhibit a "preference for over-withholding" their taxes, a measure we derive from a unique set of questions administered in a dataset of 1,003 households, which we collected through the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan. We argue that the relationship between their withholding preference and portfolio allocation across liquid and illiquid assets is consistent with models with present-biased preferences, and that individuals exhibit self-control problems when making their consumption and saving decisions. Our results support a model in which individuals use commitment devices to constrain their consumption. Using data on other tax-filing behaviors, we also show that mental accounting and loss aversion explanations for tax filers' "preference for over-withholding" are unlikely to explain the patterns in the data. Present-biasedness and dynamic inconsistency among LMI tax filers have important implications for saving policies and tax administration.
Expectations of Risk and Return Among Household Investors: Are Their Sharpe Ratios Countercyclical?
Authors: Amromin Gene , Sharpe Steven A.
Published: August 2019

Data obtained from special questions on the Michigan Survey of Consumer Attitudes over several years are used to analyze stock market beliefs and portfolio choices of household investors. Consistent with other survey results, expected future returns appear to be extrapolated from past realized returns. The data also indicate that expected risk and return are strongly influenced by economic prospects. When investors believe macroeconomic conditions are more expansionary, they tend to expect both higher returns and lower volatility, which implies that household Sharpe ratios are procyclical. Separately, perceived risk in equity returns is found to be strongly influenced by household investor characteristics, consistent with documented behavioral biases. These expectations reported by respondents are given credence by the finding that the proportion of equity holdings in respondent portfolios tends to be higher for those who report higher expected returns and lower uncertainty. Finally, the finding of procyclical expected returns holds up when we instead condition on conventional business cycle proxies such as the dividend yield and CAY, which yields a stark contrast with the inferences from studies based on actual returns.
Exchange Rates, Optimal Debt Composition, and Hedging in Small Open Economies
Authors: Berrospide Jose M.
Published: August 2019

This paper develops a model of the firm's choice between debt denominated in local currency and that denominated in foreign currency in a small open economy characterized by exchange rate risk and hedging possibilities. The model shows that the currency composition of debt and the level of hedging are endogenously determined as optimal firms' responses to a tradeoff between the lower cost of borrowing in foreign debt and the higher risk of such borrowing due to exchange rate uncertainty. Both the composition of debt and the level of hedging depend on common factors such as foreign exchange rate risk and the probability of financial default, interest rates, the size of firms' net worth, and the costs of managing exchange rate risk. Results of the model are broadly consistent with the lending and hedging behavior of the corporate sector in small open economies that recently experienced currency crises. In particular, unlike the predictions of previous work in the literature on currency crises, the model can explain why the collapse of the fixed exchange rate regime in Brazil, in early 1999, caused no major change in the currency composition of debt of the corporate sector.
Nested Simulation in Portfolio Risk Measurement
Authors: Gordy Michael B. , Juneja Sandeep
Published: August 2019

Risk measurement for derivative portfolios almost invariably calls for nested simulation. In the outer step one draws realizations of all risk factors up to the horizon, and in the inner step one re-prices each instrument in the portfolio at the horizon conditional on the drawn risk factors. Practitioners may perceive the computational burden of such nested schemes to be unacceptable, and adopt a variety of second-best pricing techniques to avoid the inner simulation. In this paper, we question whether such short cuts are necessary. We show that a relatively small number of trials in the inner step can yield accurate estimates, and analyze how a fixed computational budget may be allocated to the inner and the outer step to minimize the mean square error of the resultant estimator. Finally, we introduce a jackknife procedure for bias reduction and a dynamic allocation scheme for improved efficiency.
Term Premiums and Inflation Uncertainty: Empirical Evidence from an International Panel Dataset
Authors: Wright Jonathan H.
Published: August 2019

This paper provides cross-country empirical evidence on term premia, inflation uncertainty, and their relationship. It has three components. First, I construct a panel of zero-coupon nominal government bond yields spanning ten countries and eighteen years. From these, I construct forward rates and decompose these into expected future short-term interest rates and term premiums, using both statistical methods (an affine term structure model) and using surveys. Second, I construct alternative measures of time-varying inflation uncertainty for these countries, using actual inflation data and survey expectations. I discuss some possible determinants of inflation uncertainty. Finally, I use panel data methods to investigate the relationship between term premium estimates and inflation uncertainty measures, and find a strong positive relationship. The economic determinants of term premia remain mysterious; but this evidence points to uncertainty about intermediate- to long-run inflation rates being a substantial part of the explanation for why yield curves slope up.
Consumer Switching Costs and Firm Pricing: Evidence from Bank Pricing of Deposit Accounts
Authors: Hannan Timothy H.
Published: August 2019

This paper employs extensive information on bank deposit rates and county migration patterns to test for pricing relationships implied by the existence of switching costs. While these relationships are derived formally, the intuition for them can be readily stated. Because some areas experience more in-migration than others, banks, in addressing the trade-off between attracting new customers and exploiting old ones, offer higher deposit rates in areas (and at times) experiencing more in-migration. Further, because out-migration implies that on average a locked-in customer will not be with the bank as many periods, greater out-migration should change the bank's assessment of this trade-off such that the bank will offer lower deposit rates in areas (and during periods) exhibiting greater out-migration, all else equal. Also, because this effect of out-migration logically depends on the existence and extent of in-migration, an interaction effect is implied. Evidence strongly supporting these implied relationships is reported. Other tests of the implications of switching costs in the banking industry are also conducted.
Borrowing From Yourself: 401(k) Loans and Household Balance Sheets
Authors: Li Geng , Smith Paul A.
Published: August 2019

We examine 401(k) borrowing since 1992 and identify a puzzle: despite potential gains from borrowing against 401(k) assets instead of from other sources, most eligible households eschew 401(k) loans, including many who carry relatively expensive balances on credit cards and auto loans. We estimate that households with access to 401(k) loans could have saved about $3.3 billion in 2004--about $200 per household--by shifting debt to 401(k) loans. We find that liquidity constrained households are most likely to borrow against their accounts; however, the fastest growth has been among higher income, less liquidity constrained households. From 1992 to 2004, we do not find significantly different growth in wealth between households eligible for loans and those ineligible for loans. The recent tightening of terms and standards in mortgage and consumer lending has likely increased 401(k) borrowing, which could improve household balance sheets, if handled correctly. However, the improvement could be short-lived if the economic downturn leads to reduced contributions or significantly higher 401(k) loan defaults.
The Incentives of Mortgage Servicers: Myths and Realities
Authors: Cordell Lawrence R. , Dynan Karen E. , Lehnert Andreas , Liang J. Nellie , Mauskopf Eileen
Published: August 2019

As foreclosure initiations have soared over the past couple of years, many have questioned whether mortgage servicers have the right incentives to work out troubled subprime mortgages so that borrowers can avoid foreclosure and remain in their homes. Some critics claim that because servicers, unlike investors, do not bear the losses associated with foreclosure, they have little incentive to modify troubled loans by reducing interest rates or principal, or by extending the term. Our analysis suggests that while servicers have substantially improved borrower outreach and increased loss mitigation efforts, some foreclosures still occur where both borrower and investor would benefit if such an outcome were avoided. We discuss servicers' incentives and the obstacles to working out delinquent mortgages. We find that loss mitigation is costly for servicers, in large part because servicers currently lack adequate staff and technology; unfortunately, servicers have few financial incentives to expand capacity. Two additional factors appear to be damping workouts of nonprime loans, the group that has seen the largest increase in delinquencies. First, affordable solutions are more difficult to achieve for borrowers with these loans than for those with prime mortgages. Second, these loans are generally funded by private-label mortgage backed securities, for which investors provide little or no guidance to servicers about what modifications are appropriate. More generally, investors are wary that modifications might turn out to be unsuccessful, thus delaying and increasing ultimate losses. Given the significant deadweight losses incorporated in recent quarters' loss rates of 50 percent or more, we present options for further improving servicer performance. We discuss supporting further industry efforts to expand borrower outreach and establish servicing guidelines, educating investors, paying servicers fees for appropriate loan workouts, and improving measures of servicer performance.
Productivity, Aggregate Demand and Unemployment Fluctuations
Authors: Barnichon Régis
Published: August 2019

This paper presents new empirical evidence on the cyclical behavior of US unemployment that poses a challenge to standard search and matching models. The correlation between cyclical unemployment and the cyclical component of labor productivity switched sign in the mid 80s: from negative it became positive, while standard search models imply a negative correlation. I argue that the inconsistency arises because search models do not allow output to be demand determined in the short run, and I present a search model with nominal rigidities that can rationalize the empirical findings. In addition, I show that the interaction of hiring frictions and nominal frictions can generate a new propagation mechanism absent in standard New-Keynesian models.