bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Parameter Estimation to Penman Combination Equation in Stream Using Latent Heat Flux and Hydrometeorological Data
Authors: Park Minwoo , Kwon Yoon-Jeong , Yu Jae-Ung , Kwon Hyun-Han
Published: February 2023

Recently, floods and droughts have become more frequent due to climate change and climate variability, leading to an increase in uncertainty regarding water resources management. For reliable water resources management, it is necessary to estimate available water through the water budget analysis accounting for hydrologic circulation. However, evaporation loss in the stream is not fully considered in the water budget analysis for water resources planning in South Korea. Evaporation is a critical component of the hydrological cycle that is affected by energy exchange between the water surface and the atmosphere. Therefore, we used latent heat flux data obtained from the flux tower system to quantify evaporation. This study formulated a stream evaporation formula based on PCE(Penman combination equation) equation and estimated the associated parameters in the Bayesian modeling framework that can effectively consider evaporation loss in the entire water budget analysis. We expect that this study will contribute to water management planning by adopting the regionally calibrated PCE formula in the estimation of available water more effectively.Acknowledgement : This work was supported by the National Research Foundation of Korea(NRF) grant funded by the Korea government(MSIT). (No. 2019R1A2C2087944)
Quality assessment of Aeolus L2A products at Cabo Verde during JATAC and beyond - validation with ground-based lidar observations
Authors: Baars Holger , Gebauer Henriette , Floutsi Athina , Trapon Dimitri , Bley Sebastian , Althausen Dietrich , Engelmann Ronny , Skupin Annett , Radenz Martin , Ansmann Albert , Klamt Andi , Heese Birgit , Wandinger Ulla , Silva Eder , Rodrigues Elizandro , Silva Pericles , Zenk Cordula , Paschou Peristera , Marinou Eleni
Published: February 2023

In the framework of the Joint Aeolus Tropical Atlantic Campaign (JATAC), a temporary ground-based ACTRIS aerosol remote sensing station has been setup by TROPOS at the Ocean Science Center Mindelo (OSCM) in June 2021. The instrumental capabilities for aerosol profiling at the OSCM comprise a multiwavelength-Raman-polarization lidar Polly XT and an AERONET sun photometer. Furthermore, a scanning HALO photonics Doppler lidar is utilized to study the dynamics near the observational site. Continuous 24/7 observations have been performed since June 2021, thus covering the four intensive observational periods of JATAC (July 2021, September 2021, June 2022, September 2022).In this presentation, we want to discuss the capabilities of Aeolus to observe the aerosol conditions including the Saharan dust layer (SAL) above the Cabo Verdean islands. The time series of the ground-based PollyXT lidar from June 2021 until today has shown, that dust is omnipresent above the local boundary layer in the summer months. The maximum dust layer top height has been observed in July with 7 km. The SAL top height has then decreased to 3 km in November. Some rainy periods were observed in September/October, especially in the year 2022 for the fourth intensive JATAC campaign.We will utilize the direct Aeolus overpasses over Mindelo each Friday during these four periods (and for other seasons) to make a long(er)-term assessment of the Aeolus aerosol capabilities (L2A) involving also products from the most recent algorithm versions (Baselines).  Due to the capabilities of the ground-based PollyXT lidar, we can directly compare the 2 main products of Aeolus: The extinction coefficient and the co-polar backscatter coefficient. Doing so, we can also quantify the influence of the missing polarization component in the Aeolus aerosol products which is important for the planning of the potential Aeolus follow-on mission, for which the polarization capabilities are still under discussion.Finally, the lessons learnt from the current Aeolus Cal/Val on Cabo Verde can be also used for the upcoming EarthCARE mission as TROPOS has started to setup a permanent ACTRIS aerosol and cloud remote sensing supersite at Mindelo.
Snow droughts as a precursor of water conflicts
Authors: Munerol Francesca , Avanzi Francesco , Morando Marina , Altamura Marco , Gabellani Simone , Galvagno Marta , Cremonese Edoardo , Ferraris Luca
Published: February 2023

Water conflicts generally stem from an imbalance between water demand and availability; as such, they are often studied as a result of meteorological droughts – that is, a lack of precipitation or streamflow. By shifting water availability from wet winters to dry summers, when demand peaks, we hypothesized that snow water resources represent a crucial precursor of this imbalance, and thus play an important, but unexplored role in escalating drought-related water crises and conflict. To shed light on the nexus between snow droughts and increased water challenges, we draw lessons from the extraordinarily warm, dry, and prolonged 2021-2022 snow drought in the Italian Alps, from the consequent spring-to-summer water deficit, and from the relative seeds of conflict. To this end, we compared the spatial distribution of snow water resources deficit with the distribution and type of municipal mandatory water restrictions, under the assumption that the former are proxies of a future deficit in availability, while the latter are proxies of an imbalance between this availability and needs. We found initial evidence that the location and magnitude of the deficit in snow water resources observed across the Italian Alps in winter 2022 (-60% or more at peak accumulation) did result in seeds of institutional conflicts later in spring and summer. These findings can aid institutions and policymakers in understanding the mechanisms behind emerging water conflicts and their implications, and so design ad-hoc water policies, especially in a warming climate. 
Investigating students' perception of climate change and geo-hydrological risk in Italian public high schools
Authors: Coscarelli Roberto , Antronico Loredana , Gariano Stefano Luigi , Salvati Paola
Published: February 2023

Young generation will have to manage, in the not-too-distant future, the increase of climate-change-related hazards. Infact, extreme rainfall events, increases in mean temperatures,  decreases in mean rainfall, tropical cyclones, thunderstorms, droughts are already having a significant impacts on people’s life and to the environment. In light of this, the more young people will be aware of the climate change (CC) and will know how to deal with the risks induced by it, the more they will be able to take measures and adopt behaviors to reduce negative impacts as well as to influence the choices of policy makers. For this reason, knowing the perception, the degree of knowledge and the preparedness of young people to these issues is becoming increasingly important.By means of a quantitative research method (structured questionnaire), a survey on  a group of Italian high public school students, aged between 13 and 20 and located in central (Umbria region) and southern (Calabria region) Italy, was carried out. This survey focused on young people awareness, perception and preparation concerning natural risks, including landslide and flood risk, and climate change. The survey's results show the following informations: a) the questioned students are aware of the CC issue and they generally believe that human actions and lifestyle affect CC; moreover, young people are more worried than adults about how CC may affect nature and the environment; b) the findings confirm the close relationship between youth and the media in terms of perception, information, and understanding of CC and its impacts; c) besides believing that better risk communication between authorities and citizens is necessary, the students  have low level of trust in local administrations and on the policy regarding geo-hydrological risk; d) young interviewed who participated in a specific educational activity on landslide and flood hazard revealed that they had a good understanding of the triggering processes of these phenomena. Even though the samples is not highly representative of the whole Italian young population, the survey shows that Italian political institutions need to plan responsible, morally sound, and convincing activities in order to win over citizens' credibility and trust, especially younger ones. Additionally, it is crucial that scientists collaborate with politicians, policy makers, and schools to i) promote shared and sustainable actions involving public, particularly the younger generation, and thus increasing people resilience; and ii) develop an integrated and multidisciplinary approach to comprehend a complex phenomenon like climate change and its effects on people and environment.
Multi-objective trade-off analysis of conflicting water demands in the Chilean Laja River basin
Authors: Bovermann Zoë , Fallah-Mehdipour Elahe , Dietrich Jörg
Published: February 2023

Due to population growth, urbanization, industrial and agricultural development, water demands have increased especially during the recent decades. On the other hand, shortage of the available water resources is a considerable challenge for water allocation and conflict resolution particularly in the semi-arid regions. The Laja Lake is a natural reservoir located in the Bío-Bío Region of Chile. It provides water for different stakeholders including energy and agriculture. This lake releases water to the downstream river by natural seepage through the volcanic barrier and by a controlled outlet via a transmission line. Two hydropower plants have been constructed on the mentioned river and transmission line and four other hydropower plants have been built in a series downstream. However, agricultural stakeholders have rights to supply their irrigation water demands from the lake. Accordingly, the control of the upstream hydropower plant effects all other water users. In this research, optimal trade-offs between energy generation by the hydropower plants (transmission line and river) and supply of agricultural irrigation water have been determined by applying NSGA-II (non-dominant sorting genetic algorithm). A water balance simulation model has been coupled with NSGA-II to be applied for monthly time series of water availability and demand. Using TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution), a multi-criteria analysis method, the non-dominated solutions from ten runs have been reduced to a few solutions. They were used to perform a trade-off analysis among stakeholders to achieve an acceptable optimal operation. The results have been compared to those of the SOP (standard operating policy) and the actual reservoir operation. The application of trade-off analysis based on simulation-optimization results allowed finding a better compromise between different stakeholder utilities. Furthermore, the system’s analytic tool can be applied for different hydro-meteorological inputs and thus be used for predictive development of operation policies under changed climate.Keywords: multi-objective optimization, conflict resolution, water-energy trade-offs
Future projection of ozone-related mortality under SSP3-7.0 scenario based on CMIP6 simulations
Authors: Akritidis Dimitris , Bacer Sara , Zanis Prodromos , Georgoulias Aristeidis K. , Horowitz Larry W. , Naik Vaishali , O'Connor Fiona M. , Keeble James , Le Sager Philippe , van Noije Twan , Zhou Putian , Pozzer Andrea
Published: February 2023

Long-term exposure to ambient ozone is linked with respiratory-related mortality, while the emerging climate change is projected to pose double-edged challenges for ozone air quality. Here, we calculate the impact of emissions- and climate-change under SSP3-7.0 scenario on ozone-related mortality on a global scale, using historical (experiment histSST) and future simulations (experiments ssp370SST and ssp370pdSST) from three CMIP6 Earth System Models (ESMs) (GFDL-ESM4, EC-Earth3-AerChem, and UKESM1-0-LL). The ssp370SST experiment follows time-varying SSTs, while the SSP370pdSST follows a present-day climatology for SSTs. The chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality attributable to ozone pollution is estimated following the Global Burden Disease (GBD) 2019 approach, by using the ozone season daily maximum 8-hour mixing ratio (OSDMA8), the baseline mortality rate (from the GBD), and the SSP3-7.0 present and future gridded population. An increase in ozone-related mortality of approximately 2.5 million people per year globally is projected at the end of the century (2090) with respect to 2000 due to emissions and population changes. The climate-change footprint on ozone-related mortality exhibits large variability among the ESMs; yet, over India and China all ESMs project an increase of ozone-related mortality in the future, highlighting the importance of the ozone penalty due to global warming in regions with strong anthropogenic sources.
Surface displacement field induced by an ascending Weertman crack: numerical modeling versus analogue experiments.
Authors: Pinel Virginie , Galland Olivier , Furst Séverine , Métral Laurent , Camus Baptiste , Maccaferri Francesco
Published: February 2023

Magma intrusions ascending through the upper crust induce a displacement of the Earth’s surface, the amplitude of which  increases as the magma approaches the surface. Most geodetic observations of ground displacements induced by magma transport are interpreted using static elastic models of open dislocations or pressurized surfaces without any a priori knowledge on the surface shape of the magma intrusion. Furthermore, the numerical models currently developed for the propagation of fluid-filled cracks, which are also elastic, do not generally resolve the 3D displacement field induced at the free surface. Our aim is to bridge these two distinct approaches by using fluid-filled crack propagation models to derive the evolution of the surface displacement over time, thus providing a useful tool for the assimilation of geodetic data based on dynamic models.In a first step, we use Weertman crack theory, which provides the shape of a non-viscous fluid-filled crack to derive the surface displacement field from a finite element model. This solution is then compared to the classical dislocation model (OKADA formulation) and to 2D displacement field inferred from the simulation of the propagation of the fluid filled using a 2D boundary element model. Eventually, the results are validated using analogue experiments injecting a finite volume of air inside a transparent gelatin characterised by elastic behaviour. In the experiments, the position and shape of the crack are monitored by cameras while the surface displacement field is recovered by photogrammetry (3D components) and by scanner measurements (only the vertical component). 
Temporal variation in spreading processes at the Eastern Romanche-Mid-Atlantic Ridge intersection
Authors: Maia Marcia , Briais Anne , Petracchini Lorenzo , Cuffaro Marco , Ligi Marco , Brunelli Daniele , Grenet Lea , Hamelin Cédric
Published: February 2023

We studied the east intersection between the Romanche transform fault (TF) and the Mid-Atlantic ridge using bathymetry and gravity anomalies, to investigate the temporal evolution of the ultra-cold ridge-transform intersection. Our results reveal a complex ridge axis, with evidence of a significant decrease in the along-axis melt supply towards the RTI but also since ~10 Ma.Over a 100 km distance south of the RTI, the ridge axis is formed by three spreading segments offset by large non-transform discontinuities. Large detachment faults mark the present-day spreading style at the RTI, while magma supply increases away from the Romanche intersection. Axial and near-axis fault patterns reveal a marked obliquity, especially in the north and center of the study area.In lithosphere older than 10 Ma, the ridge axis appears to form a single spreading segment between the Romanche and Chain TFs, perpendicular to the spreading direction, with relatively regular abyssal hills. From around 10 to 3 Ma, oceanic core complexes (OCCs) developed in the northern part of the ridge axis south of the Romanche TF.  The complexity of the ridge axis appears to have increased in the last 3 Ma, with ridge obliquity accompanying axial instabilities and ridge jumps.  At least three eastward ridge relocations were identified immediately south of the Romanche TF, rupturing a series of OCCs located in the African plate, east of the ridge axis. This pattern could reflect a progressive decrease in the melt supply, in particular since 3-5 Ma. This may be related to a significant reduction of the ridge spreading rate as seen from kinematic models which allowed the cooling effect of the large offset Romanche TF to dominate the spreading processes in the area.
Forest disturbance detection using deep learning approaches
Authors: Müller Franziska , Häbold Laura , Benson Vitus , Reichstein Markus , Bastos Ana
Published: February 2023

Fire, wind, drought, and insect outbreaks are causing rapid forest decline worldwide. In recent years, the number of forest losses due to such disturbance events has reportedly increased in the temperate and southern boreal regions. However, there is a lack of large-scale and long-term observational records of different disruption types that would link forest stress and mortality to a specific cause of disturbance. Therefore, it is difficult to understand the temporal development of the various forest disturbances and to attribute these signs with certainty to climate change. The increase in quantity and quality of remote sensing data at high spatial and temporal resolutions, along with advances in machine learning for environmental applications, hold great promise for distinguishing between these different disturbance types.Our conceptual plan for implementing the research is centered on using Sentinel 2 reflectance data and constructing different deep-learning models to identify disturbance types over a case-study region in North America. We focus on large wind throw and bark beetle outbreaks in the construction of a comprehensive data set. The relevance of different features for distinguishing between these two disturbance types is evaluated by comparing spatial and temporal patterns, as well as the relative importance of different reflectance bands.   
Dynamic evolution of Cretaceous Paleogreography and the eastward migration of the Jehol Biota in North China
Authors: Song Shuangshuang , Suo Yanhui , Li Sanzhong , Ding Xuesong , Han Xu , Tian Zihan , Fu Xinjian
Published: February 2023

Destruction of the North China Craton mainly occurred in the Cretaceous and has been in hot debate due to its important tectonic significance. It is suggested that the spatio-temporal evolution of the Jehol Biota in northeastern North China is driven by the North China Craton destruction during the Early Cretaceous, due to the abrupt changes in paleogeographic environment. However, little quantitative work on the dynamic paleogeographic evolution in North China has been done. In this study, using the paleosoil weathering indexes (PWI and CFXNa) and carbonate isotope, we reconstructed the paleo-elevation of North China at 145 Ma. Then, factors include tectonic movements, sedimentology, paleoclimate and sea level changes were quantitatively combined into the Badlands software, we modeled the Cretaceous dynamic paleogeomorphic evlution of North China. It is revealed the eastern North China experienced an abrupt geomorphological transition from the collapse of the paleo-plateau to the formation of the Bohai Bay Basin due to the subduction retreat of the paleo-Pacific Plate. The geomorphological transition led to the formation of a series of rifted basins that migrated eastward. The eastward migrating subsidence basin and eruption of volcanoes jointly controlled the eastward migration of the Jehol Biota.
Astronomically-paced changes in paleoproductivity, winnowing, and mineral flux over Broken Ridge (Indian Ocean) since the Early Miocene
Authors: Lyu Jing , Bar­ra­gán-Mon­til­la Sofía , Auer Gerald , Bialik Or , Christensen Beth , De Vleeschouwer David
Published: February 2023

Earth’s climate during the Neogene period changed in several steps from a planet with unipolar ice sheets to today’s bipolar configuration. Yet, time-continuous and well-preserved sedimentary archives from this time interval are scarce. This is especially true for those records that can be used for tracing the role of astronomical climate forcing. Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Site 752 was drilled on Broken Ridge (Indian Ocean) and provides a time-continuous sedimentation history since the early Miocene in its upper portion.  To date, no astronomical-scale paleoclimate research has been conducted on this legacy ODP site. Here, we use X-ray fluorescence (XRF) core scanning data and benthic foraminifera (BF) taxonomic and quantitative analyses to reconstruct the paleoceanographic changes in the Indian Ocean since 23 Ma. Productivity-related elements from the XRF dataset, show higher productivity during the early Miocene and late Pliocene/early Pleistocene. Moreover, we found strong 405-kyr and ~110-kyr eccentricity imprints in the spectral analysis result of this XRF-derived paleoproductivity proxy. Although the precession signal is also quite remarkable in the spectral analysis results, the 4-cm resolution may not be adequate to further test the precession contribution. Bottom water oxygenation reconstructed using BF, suggest no oxygen minimum zone conditions for the late Miocene on site 752. Dissolved oxygen concentrations (DOC) indicate low oxic conditions (⁓ 2 ml/L) during this time, and relatively low stress species distribution (< 32%) along with abundant oxic species like H. boueana, C. mundulus, L. pauperata and Gyroidinoides spp. suggest predominantly high oxic conditions during the late Miocene (DOC > 2 ml/L). Meanwhile, the grain size (> 425µm) record shows an increasing trend at ~5 Ma, which indicates more current winnowing. Therefore, we argue that the drop in Mn is the result of the increase in the current winnowing, instead of the OMZ expansion. On the other hand, high-amplitude changes in Fe content from the lower Miocene to the middle Miocene, cannot be explained by eolian input, suggesting the source might be the neighbor-distanced Amsterdam-St. Paul hot spot. The source of Fe might be the neighbor-distanced Amsterdam-St. Paul hot spot. We conclude that the legacy ODP Site 752 constitutes an excellent paleoceanographic archive that allows us to reconstruct Indian Ocean dynamics since the early Miocene. New drillings on Broken Ridge with state-of-the-art scientific ocean drilling techniques will provide more detailed information and be highly beneficial for paleoclimatic and paleoceanographic research.
Towards pan-Arctic glacier calving front variability with deep learning
Authors: Li Tian , Heidler Konrad , Mou Lichao , Igneczi Adam , Zhu Xiaoxiang , Bamber Jonathan
Published: February 2023

The Arctic has been warming four times faster than the global mean over the last forty years. In response, glaciers across the Arctic have been retreating and losing mass at accelerated rates in recent years, including Greenland, Alaska, Canadian Arctic, Iceland, Svalbard and Russian Arctic. To predict their evolution with confidence, it is important to understand the mechanisms driving mass loss across the Arctic, especially the interconnected relationships between glacier retreat, ice dynamics, and mass imbalance. Over the past several decades, satellite remote sensing has been used to image glaciers over large spatial scales and at high temporal resolution. The volume of data produced, however, has challenged the traditional manual-based approaches to quantify glacier calving dynamics at a sub-annual scale across the whole Arctic. To address this limitation, we use a fully automated deep learning approach to generate a new calving front dataset for pan-Arctic glaciers at a high temporal resolution, by harmonizing multiple satellite missions that are available from the 1970s onwards, including optical missions such as Landsat, ASTER and Sentinel-2, and various SAR missions such as ERS-1/2, Envisat, RADARSAT-1, TerraSAR-X and Sentinel-1. We first present a new training dataset for the Arctic glaciers. We then present a new deep-learning framework for mapping the pan-Arctic glacier calving fronts. We show the interannual and seasonal variability of glacier termini positions by applying this method at scale and investigate the responses of Arctic glaciers to climate change.
Research on the stratospheric ozone depletion in the polar spring
Authors: Li Qidi , Luo Yuhan , Qian Yuanyuan
Published: February 2023

In recent years, the severe stratospheric ozone depletion events (ODEs) were reported in the polar spring. We retrieved the critical indicator ozone vertical column densities (VCDs) using zenith scattered light differential optical absorption spectroscopy (ZSL-DOAS) located in Chinese Great Wall Station, South Antarctic (62.22° S, 58.96° W) and Chinese Yellow River Station, Ny-Ålesund (78.92° N, 11.93° E). The ozone holes appeared above Antarctic in September and October each year (from 2017 to 2020), with ozone VCDs less than 220 DU. Furthermore, during March and April 2020, ozone VCDs over Ny-Ålesund, Arctic was only about 64.7% of that in normal years. The retrieved daily averages of ozone VCDs were compared with satellite observations from Global Ozone Monitoring Experiment 2 (GOME-2), Brewer spectrophotometer, and Système d’Analyze par Observation Zénithale (SAOZ) spectrometer; the resulting Pearson correlation coefficients were relatively high at 0.94, 0.86, and 0.91, with relative deviations of 2.3%, 3.1%, and 3.5%, respectively.The polar vortex has strong influence on stratospheric ozone depletion. Potential vorticity (PV), which is used to characterize the polar vortex and determine the edge of polar vortex, is positively correlated with total ozone columns in Antarctic, and the trend of PV and total ozone columns is at the same pace. While during the 2020 Arctic spring ODE, the ozone VCDs and potential vorticity (PV) had a negative correlation with their fluctuations, which is opposite to Southern Hemisphere. The stratospheric ozone profiles and PV profiles show that the most severe ozone depletion caused by polar vortex appeared at the altitude of 19.5-20.5 km.To better understand the cause of the ozone depletion, we considered the chemical components of ODE process in the Arctic winter of 2019/2020 with the specified dynamics version of the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SD-WACCM). The SD-WACCM model results indicated that both ClO and BrO concentrations peaked in late March, which was a critical factor during the ozone depletion observed in Ny-Ålesund. Chlorine activation was clearly apparent during the Arctic spring of 2020, whereas the partitioning of bromine species was different from that of chlorine. By combining observations with modeling, we provide a reliable basis for further research on global climate change due to polar ozone concentrations and the prediction of future polar ozone holes.
Regional Scale Modelling of Pharmaceutical Pollution in Rivers by Integrating Rural and Urban Sources
Authors: Bregoli Francesco , Posthuma Leo , Rakonjac Nikola , Zillien Caterina , Vermeiren Peter , Roex Erwin , van der Zee Sjoerd , Meijers Erwin , Ragas Ad
Published: February 2023

Contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) can threaten aquatic ecosystems and human health. Both rural and urban areas are main sources of CECs to the environment. In rural areas, veterinary pharmaceuticals (VPs) are used to prevent diseases and protect the health of farm animals. The excrements of medicated animals are spread as manure to agricultural lands, where, after rainfall, VPs can be mobilized and reach surface waters through runoff. In urban areas, pharmaceuticals excreted by humans are collected in sewage systems and are only partially removed in wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Eventually, pharmaceuticals can reach surface waters through discharge of WWTP effluent. Currently, most of the predictive models only consider one source type, e.g. WWTPs or agricultural land. This limits their prediction performance since many CECs are being emitted by multiple source types. Therefore, the aim of this study is to integrate urban and rural sources of CECs in one regional water quality assessment.Here, we predicted the concentration of CECs in the Eem river basin, the Netherlands, given land-use data combined with hydrological modeling. This allows for integrated evaluation of rural and urban emissions. These emissions were predicted with models developed within the context of the SUSPECt project (https://cec-partnership.nl/web/index.php/projects/suspect). CECs exposures were predicted with the Dutch National Water Quality Model where WWTPs emissions were included as point sources and rural emissions as diffuse sources. The temporal resolution of the model hydrology is seasonal. This is key to analyze the temporal variation of concentration due to manuring of agricultural lands which mainly occurs in Spring.Predicted concentrations were successfully compared to measured concentrations taken in the SUSPECt project and from the database of the KIWK project (www.kennisimpulswaterkwaliteit.nl) for 6 compounds: carbamazepine and fipronil (only urban sources) and trimethoprim, sulfamethoxazole, permethrin and dexamethasone (urban and rural sources).
Dengue in India: association with weather and socioeconomic variables
Authors: Sam Avik Kumar , Mukhopadhyay Siuli , Phuleria Harish C.
Published: February 2023

Dengue, the most prevalent arthropod-borne viral infection, is endemic to 100+ countries. Dengue transmission is highly sensitive to climatic and meteorological conditions such as temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, as indicated by the association between increased climatic suitability and expansion of regions at risk. In India, dengue is endemic to all 28 states and eight union territories, with a gradual shift historically observed in their spatial distributions from urban to rural areas. The rising burden due to its frequent outbreaks causes an unprecedented burden on the economy and the health system. Thus, in order to formulate adequate strategies for mitigating dengue risks in future, it is essential to study the patterns in dengue transmission and the influence of meteorological/climatic variables. The present study aims to understand the spatiotemporal variations in dengue cases and the effect of weather parameters on dengue outcomes across India over the past 15 years. State-wise annual data on dengue cases and deaths during 2007 - 2022 was collected from the National Vector-borne Disease Control Programme. India reported more than one million dengue cases and 2,712 deaths for the period, with the highest cases observed in 2021. 73% of the total cases occurred between 2016 and 2022, indicating increased dengue outbreaks across the country. Overall, the case fatality was 2.1 (per 1000 cases), the highest seen in 2007 (12.5). The northern region, with eight states and UTs, reported the highest case count contributing 28% of the country’s caseload. Positive anomalies in the maximum temperature (against a 15-year annual average) were observed from 2012 to 2019, while minimum temperature had negative anomalies – the effect of the same on dengue cases and mortality is being examined along with the effect of socioeconomic differences across the states.Figure 1 Spatial distribution in dengue cases and deaths across India between 2007-2022. The red dots indicate the deaths. 
Dynamic tensile behaviour of Barakar sandstone under high-temperature conditions
Authors: Tripathi Adarsh , Khan Mohammad Mohasin , K. Singh Ashok , Pain Anindya
Published: February 2023

Rocks are very much susceptible to deformation in tension, especially under elevated temperatures. Therefore, the study of the dynamic tensile behaviour of rock exposed to high temperature is highly significant to understand the tensile deformation behaviour in dynamic loading conditions which will be proved useful in a variety of engineering problems such as quantifying the blast load impact in fire affected underground/opencast coal mine regions; assessment of ground subsidence due to coalmine fire coupled with blast loading etc. The Jharia coalfield region, known as the coal capital of India, is affected by pervasive underground coalmine fire for decades resulting in small to large-scale surface fracturing. So,the present study focuses on the effect of high temperature on dynamic tensile behaviour and its relation with micro-mineralogical properties of subsurface coal-bearing sandstone samples from a fire-affected mine.  To achieve the objective, the prepared samples were kept in the furnace for 24h with a heating rate of 5°C/min and then allowed to cool down naturally within the furnace. Samples were divided into nine groups based on the thermal treatment at 25 °C, 100 °C, 200 °C, 300 °C, 400 °C, 500 °C, 600 °C, 700 °C, and 800 °C. Using the Split-Hopkinson Pressure Bar (SHPB), the indirect dynamic tensile strength was measured for each group. Based on the obtained results, the indirect dynamic tensile strength of heat-treated specimens is characterized into three zones; viz.: Zone 1 (25-400°C), Zone 2 (400-600°C) and Zone 3 (600-800°C). In zone 1, an increase in average indirect dynamic tensile strength is observed with elevated temperature. However, in zone 2, a sharp decreasing trend in indirect dynamic tensile strength was observed with increasing temperature. This zone is characterised by a progressive increase in thermal cracks and porosity which is possibly the prime reason for a sharp transition in thermal properties. An overall reduction in indirect dynamic tensile strength is observed within zone 3, however, the rate of reduction is gentle. The plasticity that occurred due to high temperature was responsible for a slow rate of reduction in indirect dynamic tensile strength.
Chaos, Mixing, and Restart - Fluid-solid reaction enhancement under pore-scale chaotic advection
Authors: Aquino Tomas , Le Borgne Tanguy , Heyman Joris
Published: February 2023

Biogeochemical reactions at the interface between fluid and solid phases are of central importance to a broad range of natural and engineered processes in porous media. As dissolved reactants are transported through a porous medium, advection and diffusion act to homogenize their concentrations, in competition with reactive depletion at the solid interface. Transport limitations can limit reactant availability, leading to reduced reaction efficiency when compared to well-mixed conditions. Chaotic advection has been recently established to occur spontaneously in steady, three-dimensional flows through porous media. In this work, we explore and quantify its role in mitigating transport limitations and correspondingly increasing reaction efficiency. We employ the continuous time random walk framework to connect reaction delays due to transport limitations to the statistics of solute excursion times to the interface. Chaotic advection is associated with a rapid loss of memory of initial conditions and efficient exploration of the bulk of the pore space. We model the corresponding effect on excursion times through a stochastic restart process, such that reactant positions are randomly restarted homogeneously across the domain over a characteristic time scale that depends on flow and geometry. Processes that restart under some condition have received much attention in the context of search strategies, where it is known that they can increase the efficiency of the underlying process. Here, we find a corresponding effect on excursion times, and a consequent increase of reaction efficiency with Péclet number. As chaotic advection leads to efficient bulk exploration, low velocities near the interface due to no-slip boundary conditions become the limiting factor on mixing and thus control the restart rate. This has the surprising consequence that, while chaotic advection sets the stage for enhanced reaction efficiency, the increase is insensitive to the "strength" of chaos as quantified by the Lyapunov exponent, and is instead controlled by flow shear at the interface. The theoretical predictions are in excellent agreement with numerical simulations of reactive decay at solid surfaces in a crystalline porous medium, over a broad range of Péclet and Damköhler numbers.
Random Forest Classification of Proterozoic and Paleozoic rock types of Tsagaan-uul area, Mongolia
Authors: Badrakh Munkhsuren , Tserendash Narantsetseg , Choindonjamts Erdenejargal , Albert Gáspár
Published: February 2023

The Tsagaan-uul area of the Khatanbulag ancient massif in the Central Asian Orogenic Belt is located in the southern part of Mongolia, which belongs to the Gobi Desert. It has a low vegetation cover, and because of this, remotely sensed data can be used without difficulty for geological investigations. Factors such as sparse population and underdeveloped infrastructure in the region further create a need for combining traditional geological mapping with remote sensing technologies. In existing geology maps of the area, the formations are lithologically very diverse and their boundaries were mapped variously, so a need for a more precise lithology-based map arouse.This study investigated combinations of fieldwork, multispectral data, and petrography for the rock type classification. A random forest classification method using multispectral Sentinel-2A data was employed in order to distinguish different rocks within Proterozoic Khulstai (NP1hl) metamorphic complex, which is dominated by gneiss, andesite, sandstone, limestone, amphibolite, as well as the Silurian terrigenous-carbonate Khukh morit (S1hm) formation, Tsagaan-uul area. Based on the ground samples collected from field surveys, ten kinds of rock units plus Quaternary sediments were chosen as training areas. In addition, morphometric parameters derived from SRTM data and band ratios used for iron-bearing minerals from Sentinel 2 bands are selected as variables in the accuracy of classification. The result showed that gneisses were recognized with the highest accuracy in the Khulstai complex, and limestones and Quaternary sediments were also well predicted. Moreover, the tectonic pattern was also well recognized from the results and compared to the existing maps provided a more detailed geological image of the area. This study emphasized the need for samples as baseline data to improve the machine learning methods, and the method provides an appropriate basis for fieldwork. 
Investigating the predictability of Mediteranean cyclones and their severity
Authors: Doiteau Benjamin , Pantillon Florian , Plu Matthieu , Descamps Laurent , Rieutord Thomas
Published: February 2023

Cyclones are essential elements of the climate and of the water cycle in the Mediterranean. The most intense of them lead to natural disasters because of their violent winds and extreme rainfall, which can cause significant damage to the territories bordering the Mediterranean (coast and mountain ranges). Reliable forecasts of cyclones are therefore essential to better anticipate and prevent their societal impact. However, their predictability is often limited by their particularities: smaller cyclones with a shorter life cycle than in the North Atlantic, complex topography, interactions with the relatively warm sea and air masses laden with dust from the Sahara.We investigate the predictability of Mediterranean cyclones in a systematic framework using an ensemble prediction system. A reference dataset was first obtained by tracking cyclones in the ERA5 reanalysis (1979-2021), using an algorithm developped for the North Atlantic and adapted for the Mediterranean region. We then investigated the predictability using ARPEGE ensemble reforecasts in a homogeneous configuration over 22 years (2000-2021).We restricted the study on 500 cases, which were selected using a storm severity index based on wind gusts and adapted for the Mediterranean region. The cases were then divided in several categories following their dynamical context, their intensity and their geographical origin. The predictability of the reforecasts was finally quantified on each of those categories, using probabilistic scores on cyclone trajectories (along and cross track error) and on intensities (mean sea level pressure and storm severity index).While past studies have been limited by the fact that regular updates of operational forecasting systems do not allow the predictability of cases to be compared with each other, the homogeneous configuration of the ARPEGE ensemble reforecasts makes it possible to systematically identify the limitation to the predictability of Mediterranean cyclones.
Micro business participation in collective flood adaptation. Lessons from scenario-based analysis in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
Authors: Revilla Diez Javier , Garschagen Matthias , Tran Van , Leitold Roxana
Published: February 2023

Although research on the impacts of climate change on small- and medium-sized firms (SMEs) and their adaptive behavior against climate change risks recently have received more attention, the focus on micro and household businesses is still very limited. Micro and household businesses are adversely impacted by compound flooding events – a situation that will become even more acute in the future – but there is little attention in scientific literature on their possibilities of adaptation and actual implementation.Against this backdrop, the paper will analyse the following research questions: How do micro firms already respond to flooding? Are micro firms willing to invest jointly into future proactive adaptation efforts in their neighborhood? What are key drivers and barriers for adaptation? Specifically, we evaluate a set of adaptation measures at the neighborhood scale, and then examine key driver and barriers at different spheres for collective adaptation of micro businesses. We offer an empirical analysis on micro businesses in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), a city increasingly threathened by flooding and where climate change hazards are on the rise. In HCMC formal – and informal – micro businesses make up a large majority of SMEs.
Substructures of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their solar source region
Authors: Cappello Greta , Temmer Manuela , Veronig Astrid
Published: February 2023

Parker Solar Probe (PSP) and Solar Orbiter (SolO) observe the Sun from unprecedented close-in orbits out of the Sun-Earth line. In combination with EUV imagery from STEREO and SDO, these unique and high-resolution data from different vantage points will give us new insights into the early evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the low corona and inner heliosphere. For a case study, we apply 3D CME reconstruction methods to relate different CME substructures as observed in white-light coronagraphs like WISPR aboard PSP, to EUV off-limb structures for an erupting event. We interpret the results in terms of projection and Thomson scattering effects.
Detecting Shredded Signals in a Physical Avalanching Rice Pile
Authors: Griffin Chloe , Duller Robert , Straub Kyle
Published: February 2023

Tectonic, climatic, and anthropogenic forcing generate sediment flux signals that propagate across the Earth’s surface. Some of these signals get stored in strata but autogenic processes present in the Earth surface active layer can shred (i.e. degrade) and obscure many signals of environmental change prior to stratigraphic storage. In a landmark paper, Jerolmack and Paola (2010) use a numerical rice pile to show that autogenic events in the system saturate at a timescale Tx, which is noted to scale as L2/qinand corresponds to a red-to-white noise transition. The conceptual utility of this is that those environmental signals with periods less than Tx will experience shredding (unless signal magnitude overwhelms autogenic processes), while signals with periods greater than Tx would be detectable in the output. However, the relationships between signal shredding, preservation and detection are currently not established using physical experiments. Advancing on this work, we use a physical rice pile and find that power spectra generated from efflux time-series exhibit a tripartite geometry defined by red, white and blue noise. The transition between each regime defines two key autogenic timescales: Trwand Twb. Trw is defined by the red-to-white noise transition, setting upper bounds on signal degradation, and represents Tx on the power spectra of Jerolmack and Paola (2010), but does not scale with qin. Whereas signals greater than Twb, which scales with qin,are unobscured by autogenic noise and show enhanced detectability in the power spectra. We emphasize that while signals greater than Trw do not experience degradation, they can still be obscured by autogenic noise, unless signal period is greater than Twb. This framework can be used to predict the severity of shredding as signals propagate through the Earth surface active layer, and establish robust confidence limits of signal detectability in landscapes and strata.
Vertical profiles of pollutants in Fairbanks, Alaska during the ALPACA 2022 field campaign
Authors: Barret Brice , Brett Natalie , Pohorsky Roman , Baccarini Andrea , Schmale Julia , Pappacogli Gianluca , Scoto Federico , Decesari Stefano , Donateo Antonio , Fochesatto Gilberto J. , Simpson William , Cesler-Maloney Meeta , Mao Jinqiu , Dieudoné Elsa , Bekki Slimane , Arnold Stephen , d'Anna Barbara , Medina Patrice , Busetto Maurizio , Law Kathy S.
Published: February 2023

The ALPACA (Alaskan Layered Pollution and Chemical Analysis) field campaign (January-February 2022) aimed to collect new data to document Arctic wintertime air pollution. State of the art instrumentation was deployed in Fairbanks, Alaska to characterise inorganic/organic aerosols, vertical layering and mixing of aerosols and precursors, and meteorology at sites influenced by local anthropogenic emissions and background Arctic Haze.Vertical profiles of the boundary layer composition were collected from an instrumented tethered ballon (helikite) deployed at the UAF-Farm site in West Fairbanks. The Helikite payload included instruments dedicated to the characterisation of particles (concentration, composition, size distribution) and to measurement of trace gases with dedicated analysers for O3, CO and CO2 and a MICROMEGAS instrument. MICROMEGAS is a light-weight package based on low-cost Alphasense electrochemical sensors for trace gases (CO/O3/NO/NO2). This instrument was also deployed on the ground close to reference-grade trace gas analysers at the CTC measurement site in downtown Fairbanks, and onboard a vehicle for 2D-mapping of pollution within and around Fairbanks.Low-cost electrochemical sensors are sensitive to temperature and humidity and require careful calibration and validation. We first introduce the calibration method based on multi-linear regression with the collocated CTC reference measurements. The performance (biases, correlation coefficients, RMSDs) of the calibrated data are then evaluated against CTC observations not used for the calibration. Cases of vertical helikite profiles with polluted layers related to specific dynamical conditions (temperature inversions, wind regimes…) are investigated. Tracer-tracer relationships (CO, NO, NO2 versus CO2 ; NOx versus Ox) together with meteorological observations are used to examine air mass origins (domestic combustion, vehicles, power plants), as well as dilution and chemical transformation of the sampled pollution plumes.