Natural change of the rural population of Yugoslavia with an emphasis on fertility in the early 1990s
Authors: Penev Goran 
Published: May 2019

The process of intensive deruralization or decline in total rural population
of the FR of Yugoslavia in the second half of the 20th century ??m?
exclusively as ? result of migration from rural to urban areas. Though
constantly positive at the level of the country as ? whole, the downward
tendency in rural population growth was observed throughout the period. The
author analyzes components and dynamics of natural change in rural
population with emphasis on the period from 1981 to 1997, regional specifics
up to the republican and provincial levels, and the main differences from
the specifics of natural change in urban population. The author highlights
that in analyzing natural change b? type of settlement, particular attention
should b? paid to the very pronounced interdependency between the components
of population dynamics and the age-sex structure, the more so as the latter
is becoming the most significant direct determinant of the natural
population growth. Namely, crude birth rate of rural population in
Yugoslavia has tor several decades now been lower th?n the corresponding
measure for urban population, while the crude death rate has, however, been
higher. At the same time, in age-specific terms, fertility was higher and
mortality lower in rural relative to urban populations. Such discrepancy
evolved primarily from the unfavorable age-specific structure of rural
population and its notably disturbed sex-specific structure (pronounced
surplus in male, particularly younger middle-aged population). The author
goes on to analyze the main features of fertility and reproduction in rural
population based on demographic statistics. ?? argues that the general and
total fertility rates represent more adequate indicators of fertility in
rural population, as the impact of age structure has been partially or even
fully eliminated. Thus, in 1990-1992, both indicators are higher for rural
relative to urban population, and sufficiently high relative to the
mortality level to assure integral replacement (net reproduction was 1.0 in
rural relative to 0.9 in urban population). In all m???r regions of the
country, fertility was higher in rural relative to urb?n population. Such
differences were minimal in low fertility regions, while remaining
significant in Kosovo and Metohia. The analysis of fertility was
supplemented b? the 1991 census data, which, for the first time, included
the number of live born children b? age of mother and type of settlement.
Despite the fact that such data on female population illustrate the
situation at the moment of census taking only, and not at the moment of
birth, the author thinks that the cohort analysis based on the census data
provide ? much more realistic account of fertility in rural population than
the period analysis based on vital statistics, primarily as it resolves the
problem of ???ur?t? registration 0f vital events b? type of settlement.
Thus, cohort fertility rates show that fertility of rural female population
is notably higher than the effective fertility in urban areas. This is true
for all five-year age groups without exception, and equally true for all
major regions Finally, the author analyzes cohort fertility of the
autochthon versus migrant populations, as well as fertility b? ethnic
origin. ?? draws ? general conclusion that fertility is higher in migrant
relative to autochthon female population, and that th? differences are much
more pronounced in rural relative to urban populations. This phenomenon is
explained b? the so-called marriage-motivated migration, which the author
assumes to b? dominant in migrant female population. As for fertility rates
b? ethnic origin, the well-known differences are also evident in rural
population. Namely, all ethnic groups can b? classified b? level fertility
into three categories. The highest rate is recorded for ethnic Albanian,
Roma and Muslim women. Montenegrin women record moderately high fertility
rates, while the rate recorded for women of Croatian descent is generally
sufficient for generation replacement. The third category is made u? of
Serb, Yugoslav, and ethnic Hungarian women as well as the great majority of
women of other ethnic origin (?unj?va?, Romanian and Slovak). ?ll these
nationalities record very low fertility levels, which have for years been
insufficient to enable generation replacement.