bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Bank managers’ direct marketing dilemmas – customers’ attitudes and purchase intention
Authors: Page Carole , Luding Ye
Published: May 2003

Investigates customer attitudes towards the direct marketing strategies employed by banks in relation to how attitudes toward the marketing media used and response channels influence the customer’s intention to purchase. Marketing media include mail promotion, telephone, and e‐mail promotions. Response channels include mail order, telephone and e‐mail orders. A total of 153 customers of bank services and products completed a survey questionnaire on their attitudes. Research indicates that customers generally evince a negative attitude toward banks using direct marketing strategies. They have mixed feelings about response channels, and low intention to purchase as an outcome of direct marketing. Purchase intention is significantly influenced by attitudes toward direct marketing media rather than response channels. Attaching promotions to communications a customer is expecting to receive can strengthen purchase intention. No demographic differences indicate that attitudes may have a stronger association with purchase intention. Revealed dilemmas faced by bank managers, marketers and researchers.
The Role of Gender and Immersion in Communication and Second Language Orientations
Authors: Baker Susan C. , MacIntyre Peter D.
Published: May 2003

Learning a second language (L2) in Cape Breton offers a unique challenge to students given that the southeastern portion of the island (where this study was conducted) is essentially unilingual (English). Despite Canada's reputation as a bilingual nation, nonimmersion students in this study would receive at the most only about an hour of second language speaking opportunities per day inside a classroom. However, in reality, the nonimmersion classroom tends to be structured so that emphasis is placed on grammar, and very little L2 conversation takes place. Contrast this with students in immersion programs, who are expected to use the second language inside and outside the classroom, both for instruction and for social interaction at school. Immersion programs have been praised for the greater advantages they offer students, and immersion students are often thought to be more proficient at using the L2 than nonimmersion students. At the time of this study, there had been no research that directly compared high school immersion and nonimmersion students from the same linguistic landscape on nonlinguistic language‐related outcomes, such as attitudes, orientations for learning, and communication affect. Such a comparison might have pedagogical implications, especially for teachers who provide little opportunity for actual L2 use.

The present study examines the nonlinguistic outcomes of an immersion versus a nonimmersion program. The dependent variables included attitudes toward learning French, orientations for learning, willingness to communicate, communication anxiety, perceived communicative competence, and self‐reported frequency of communication in both English (L1) and French (L2). A qualitative section was included that asked students to describe some negative and positive experiences in speaking French and their reactions to these experiences.

Compared with the nonimmersion students, immersion students indicated higher willingness to communicate, lower communication anxiety, higher perceived communicative competence, and more frequent communication only in the French language. Among the nonimmersion students, perceived competence was strongly correlated with willingness to communicate, but among the immersion students, communication anxiety correlated most strongly with willingness to communicate. The obtained gender differences indicated that male nonimmersion students showed the least positive attitudes toward learning French; female nonimmersion students showed higher endorsement of 3 of the 4 language learning orientations. The qualitative analysis revealed that negative experiences speaking French, while unpleasant for both immersion and nonimmersion students, may have actually enhanced their motivation. [The present article appeared in Language Learning, 50(2), 2000, 311–341]
The New Scramble for the African Countryside
Authors: Dzingirai Vupenyu
Published: May 2003

There is in Africa, as in other parts of the third world, a desire for environmental management that simultaneously incorporates and benefits all stakeholders, including private businesses and villagers. While these partnerships continue to displace the failed state‐centric management of the African landscape, research to document their local‐level impact is still formative and developing. This article is an attempt to examine the new environmental management partnerships emerging in southern Africa's countryside. It argues that these new interventions not only fail to deliver benefits to villagers: more importantly, they curtail the long‐established rights to land and other natural resources of indigenous communities. While villagers may engage in a battle to recover these rights, it is a struggle in which the odds are stacked against them, and which the private sector and its partners are set to win.
Rethinking Household Headship among Eritrean Refugees and Returnees
Authors: Kibreab Gaim
Published: May 2003

One of the most common generalizations concerning refugee populations is that they are dominated by female heads of households and children. It is claimed that men are either killed in the wars that prompt displacement or are left behind to fight. This assumption has continued to determine the policies of relief and development agencies, as well as governments in countries of asylum and return. On the basis of empirical data from UNHCR and household data from Eritrea, this article questions the validity of such a dominant assumption. The article also problematizes the concept of household headship by showing that it is a cultural construction whose meaning varies from one cultural context to another. There is, thus, no definition of headship that can apply cross‐culturally. It also argues that since female heads of households (FHHs) are not socially and economically homogeneous, household headship is not an appropriate method of identifying the poorest of the poor for targeting or provision of emergency relief or for productive inputs in development programmes.
History and the Duality of Power in Community‐based Forestry in Southeast Bolivia
Authors: McDaniel Josh M.
Published: May 2003

This article discusses theories of power and economic articulation in the framework of a community‐based forestry project among the Chiquitano communities of southeastern Bolivia. The analysis focuses on the tensions that characterize indigenous development projects, and the problems that result from competing systems of control and power. Using Norman Whitten's concept of the duality in power, and Carol Smith's elaboration of historical economic analysis, the author examines the connections between historical, political and economic institutions and norms promoting redistribution of resources and goods in Chiquitano culture, and the unique Chiquitano response to the opportunities and challenges of international development. He contends that the distribution of development funds and resources in the form of small gifts and loans by Chiquitano leaders to neighbours and kin follows economic and political models established in Jesuit missions of the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. The article also argues that patterns of resistance and adaptation in Chiquitano political leadership follow patterns established under rubber and ranching patrons in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.
Contentious Politics and Democratization: Comparing the Impact of Social Movements on the Fall of Communism in Eastern Europe
Authors: Glenn John K.
Published: May 2003

In this paper, I identify and analyze the interaction between two processes – mobilization and bargaining – by which democratic challengers can transform political institutions, bringing together insights from the literatures on social movements, which tends to analyze movement emergence, and democratization, which tends to analyze the design of democratic institutions. I compare the impact of social movements in the fall of communism in Eastern Europe, cases that offer a valuable opportunity to extend the literature on contentious politics beyond its origins in the study of Western parliamentary democracies. The analysis directs attention to an under examined arena of political contestation, agenda setting, or the process by which the demands of social movements are translated into issues for governments. The paper argues that the traditional dichotomy between institutional and non-institutionalized contention has obscured the ways that democratic challengers not only pressure states from the outside but transform them through new forms of political participation. Finally, it considers alternative explanations and suggests new directions for comparative research across different settings and times.
The Geographic Effects of Trade Liberalization with Increasing Returns in Transportation
Authors: Mansori Kashif S.
Published: May 2003

Abstract This paper develops a model of economic geography that examines how the distribution of economic activity may change as a country opens up to foreign trade. The distinctive features of the model are that transportation is costly between locations within a nation as well as between nations, and that these transportation costs are subject to increasing returns to scale. A result of the model is that trade liberalization may cause the population of a country to become more concentrated in a single megalopolis. The large megalopolis may reduce welfare due to congestion costs, which implies that liberalization may unexpectedly leave the country worse off.
Optimal Allocation of Land between Productive Use and Recreational Use
Authors: Giménez Eduardo L. , González‐Gómez Manuel
Published: May 2003

Abstract This paper is an inquiry into the optimal allocation of time and natural areas to recreational uses, which have the feature of being a pure and continuous public good. We address this issue with a comprehensive approach. A static rational general equilibrium framework is developed in which heterogeneous agents allocate land and time endowments between alternative uses. This modeling has important advantages. First, Pareto‐optimal and voluntary‐contribution equilibrium allocations are obtained in a unified set‐up. Second, the suboptimality result of the decentralized equilibrium, the free‐rider problem on the provision of this nonexcludable public good, and different mechanisms to return the economy to its first‐best are analyzed. Finally, a methodological critique is made of some empirical literature, and it is suggested that our theoretical microeconomic‐based structure seems to be a suitable starting point for empirical research.
Sex and Age Effects on Willingness to Communicate, Anxiety, Perceived Competence, and L2 Motivation Among Junior High School French Immersion Students
Authors: MacIntyre Peter D. , Baker Susan C. , Clément Richard , Donovan Leslie A.
Published: May 2003

The students who participate in immersion education are an impressive group. In the present study we looked at students in a junior high school in Nova Scotia. In the local area, English is far and away the dominant language, though there are French‐speaking communities within a 2‐hr drive and Canada is an officially bilingual country. Therefore, the students are not in a “foreign” language‐learning environment, but in all probability, they are not likely to encounter spoken French in their daily lives. The students have all the challenges of adolescence to contend with: moving from an elementary to a junior high school in grade 7, the wonders of puberty, growing academic expectations from teachers, demands from school administration to speak only French while at school, and the burgeoning social life of a newly minted teenager. On top of all this, participants in this research are required to give up their well‐developed native language, English, and undertake to be educated in a second language, French. Impressive.

The present study reports a cross‐sectional investigation of second language communication among students in a junior high French late immersion program. The effects of language, sex, and grade on willingness to communicate (WTC), anxiety, perceived communication competence, and frequency of communication in French and on attitude/motivation variables are examined globally and at each grade level. Most of these variables have been widely studied among adult learners, most often at the university level. The present study attempted to look at a much younger group to examine the patterns earlier in the language learning process.

We found that students’ second language WTC, perceived competence, and frequency of communication in French increased from grades 7 to 8 and that these increases were maintained between grades 8 and 9, despite a drop in motivation between grades 7 and 8 and a steady level of anxiety across the three grades. Gender differences in language anxiety were observed across the three grades. Contrary to our expectations, compared to girls, boys reported more anxiety in grade 9. However, the differences between WTC across the first and second language narrowed as students progressed through the program. [The present article first appeared in Language Learning, 52(3), 2002, 537–564]
Introduction
Authors: Dörnyei Zoltán
Published: May 2003

The study of motivation to learn a second language (L2) or foreign language has a history over 4 decades. It is, in fact, one of the most thoroughly examined areas of second language acquisition, with several books and literally hundreds of research articles and book chapters written on it. Yet in spite of this wealth of theorizing and research findings, it is surprising how uneven and inconsistent our knowledge of the subject is. This, I believe, has two main explanations:

1. Motivation theories attempt to investigate nothing less than why humans act and think the way they do. In other words, the scope of motivation research concerns every aspect of our immensely complex human existence, and, quite frankly, it would be rather surprising to find a theory that provides an all‐round explanation of what we do and why.

2. Motivation is a multifaceted construct, and the exact nature of the constituent components activated in a particular situation depends greatly on contextual factors. This, of course, is related to the fact that humans are social beings and human action is always embedded in a number of physical and psychological contexts which considerably affect a person's cognition, behavior, and achievement. In the case of L2 learning, this situational dependence appears particularly salient, as various L2 learning situations differ a great deal: Consider, for example, the vast differences between learning a world language, the official second language of a country, a heritage language, a classic but extinct language like Latin, and a language that is seen by the students merely as a compulsory school subject without any additional significance.
Indexation Rules, Risk Aversion and Imperfect Information
Authors: Benassi Corrado , Scorcu Antonello E.
Published: May 2003

Nominal wage adjustment is modelled as resulting from bargaining between a risk‐neutral firm and a risk‐averse worker, in an environment where the rate of inflation is a random variable. Risk aversion makes for endogenous indexation arrangements, which deliver partial indexation as they exploit imperfect inflation indices; moreover, risk aversion generates a positive correlation between indexation and inflation variance. The model suggests a distinction between complete versus incomplete inflation adjustment, on the one hand, and perfect versus imperfect adjustment, on the other.
Estimation of Technical and Allocative Inefficiency Using Fourier Flexible Cost Frontiers for Taiwan's Banking Industry
Authors: Huang Tai‐Hsin , Wang Mei‐Hui
Published: May 2003

We construct a Fourier flexible functional form which can globally approximate the unknown true function, taking into account both technical inefficiency and allocative inefficiency components to avoid possible specification error. Empirical results suggest that technical inefficiency alone raises a bank's cost about 12 per cent on average, that allocative inefficiency alone raises an average bank's cost 15.8 per cent, and that the cost rises due to allocative inefficiency decrease over time. Translog evidence on economic efficiency suggests a much higher cost savings when achieving both technical and allocative efficiency than does the Fourier flexible function.
Loneliness in Children and Adolescents: What Do Schools and Teachers Need to Know and How Can They Help?
Authors: Qualter Pamela
Published: May 2003

In this article the author conducts a brief review of the research on childhood loneliness in school‐age children and the long‐term outcomes, especially in relation to the utility of intervening. She advocates an approach based on increasing social competence, developing mutual friendships and overcoming self‐defeating thought patterns. Whole‐school or whole‐class based interventions are described and recommended. She concludes that all components of loneliness should be addressed, not merely the lack of social skills. She argues that since the long‐term outcomes of loneliness are as yet unknown, there is no practical and ethical justification for focusing interventions on an individual. Interventions that involve the whole‐school or whole‐class are theoretically capable of alleviating loneliness in childhood providing they are not narrowly focused.
The Development of Peer Support in Secondary Schools
Authors: Bishop Sam
Published: May 2003

There is now a heightened awareness of the need for schools to provide a safe environment in which children can learn. However, issues and incidents of bullying are still high on most school agendas. The pastoral care of children during school hours includes an emphasis on loco parentis and within this brief anti‐bullying strategies have to be seen to work. Peer support is one such strategy that is becoming increasingly prevalent as schools attempt to create a safer and supportive environment for their pupils. This paper records the development and progress of this type of peer intervention scheme.
Teaching and Learning of Citizenship Education at the Junior Secondary Level in Botswana
Authors: Adeyemi Michael B. , Boikhutso K. , Moffat P.
Published: May 2003

This paper explores the extent to which the objectives of citizenship education has been realized in Botswana. The authors draw on data from interviews and observations of thirty‐two social studies teachers drawn from eighteen junior secondary schools. The majority of the teachers felt that the objective of working to produce good citizens had either been minimally or satisfactorily achieved. The use of inquiry methods and group work were perceived as particularly effective methods of teaching citizenship. About half of the social studies teachers thought they had undergone sufficient training to effectively teach the concepts involved in citizenship education but they highlighted the challenges of irrelevant instructional materials, job dissatisfaction and large class size. The authors recommend providing regular workshops, restructuring pre‐service and in‐service education programmes in order to improve the present situation and to bridge the gap between theory and practice.
Option Pricing Bounds: Synthesis And Extension
Authors: Rodriguez Ricardo J.
Published: May 2003

The main option pricing bounds in the literature were originally obtained through various disparate methods. I show that those bounds can be derived from a single analytical framework. The key to this synthesis lies in the use of a general expression for the price of a call option depending on the corresponding put option's discount factor. Although the put's discount factor is unknown, it can be bounded from below. I use this lower bound on the put's discount factor to derive traditional lower bounds for call prices. In addition, I extend the literature by finding a new tighter lower bound.
Event‐Induced Volatility and Tests for Abnormal Performance
Authors: Savickas Robert
Published: May 2003

I analyze a simple test statistic for mean abnormal returns in the presence of stochastic volatility during both event and nonevent windows and in the presence of event‐induced variance increases. Unlike previous tests, the parametric test evaluated here does not require that the volatility effect of the event be the same across all securities. Simulations show that the test exhibits nontrivial gains in power over previously developed parametric and nonparametric tests, and the true null hypothesis is rejected at appropriate levels.
Systematic Risk and Revenue Volatility
Authors: Griffin Harry F. , Dugan Michael T.
Published: May 2003

We introduce the degree of economic leverage (DEL) as an extension of the existing method of decomposing beta and assess its incremental explanatory power through empirical testing. The DEL is defined as the percentage change in the firm's sales resulting from a unit percentage change attributable to an exogenous economic disturbance. The exogenous economic disturbance employed is the ratio of long‐term T‐bond rates to short‐term T‐bill rates. The evidence supports the DEL's role in explaining systematic risk at both the industry and portfolio levels. However, we find mixed results at the firm level.
Intraday Variation in the Bid‐Ask Spread: Evidence after the Market Reform
Authors: Chung Kee H. , Zhao Xin
Published: May 2003

In this article we show that intraday variation in spreads for Nasdaq‐listed stocks has converged to intraday variation in spreads for NYSE‐listed stocks after the implementation of the new order‐handling rules. We attribute this convergence to the Limit Order Display Rule, which requires that limit orders be displayed in Nasdaq best bid and offer when they are better than quotes posted by market makers. Our findings suggest that the different patterns of intraday spreads between NYSE and Nasdaq stocks reported in prior studies can largely be attributed to the different treatment of limit orders between the NYSE and Nasdaq before the market reform.
The Post‐Reform Bid‐Ask Spread Disparity between Nasdaq and the NYSE
Authors: He Yan , Wu Chunchi
Published: May 2003

We report further evidence of the difference in execution costs between Nasdaq and the NYSE before and after the 1997 market reforms. We find that informed trading costs are consistently higher on Nasdaq both before and after the reforms. In the pre‐reform period the Nasdaq‐NYSE disparity in bid‐ask spreads cannot be completely attributed to the difference in informed trading costs. However, in the post‐reform period the spread difference between these two markets becomes insignificant with the effect of informed trading costs controlled. Our findings are consistent with the contention that the reforms have largely reduced noninformation trading costs and dealers' rents.
The Nasdaq‐Amex Merger, Nasdaq Reforms, and the Liquidity of Small Firms
Authors: Sapp Travis R. A. , Yan Xuemin (Sterling)
Published: May 2003

After the Nasdaq and American Stock Exchange (AMEX) merged in 1998, officials of the new entity argued that some “smaller, harder to trade” companies on Nasdaq should switch to AMEX to improve liquidity. This recommendation is based on the traditional view among academics and practitioners alike that a substantial trading cost reduction should be realized when a company switches from the multidealer Nasdaq system to the AMEX specialist system. However, in light of the 1997 Nasdaq reforms, we reexamine the validity of these arguments using data from 1996–98 on firms that switch from the Nasdaq to the AMEX or the New York Stock Exchange. Evidence from transaction costs, volatility, and stock returns shows declining benefits to switching during the sample period. Our findings indicate that the liquidity improvement from exchange listing is limited in the wake of the Nasdaq reforms of 1997.
An Analysis of Closed‐end Fund Seasoned Equity Offerings
Authors: Higgins Eric James , Howton Shawn , Howton Shelly
Published: May 2003

We examine the stock price reaction to seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) of closed‐end funds and the determinants of the issuance decision. We find that sample funds have negative and significant average announcement‐day returns that are less than the returns associated with industrial firm SEOs, most likely because funds have fewer information asymmetries. Issuing funds have higher pre‐issue returns, higher premiums, lower betas, and lower three‐year, post‐issue returns than nonissuing funds. The results of the study are consistent with the argument that fund managers time issues to take advantage of mean reversion in fund returns.
The Determinants of Conditional Autocorrelation in Stock Returns
Authors: McKenzie Michael D. , Faff Robert W.
Published: May 2003

We investigate whether return volatility, trading volume, return asymmetry, business cycles, and day‐of‐the‐week are potential determinants of conditional autocorrelation in stock returns. Our primary focus is on the role of feedback trading and the interplay of return volatility. We present empirical evidence using conditional autocorrelation estimates generated from multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (M‐GARCH) models for individual U.S. stock and index data. In addition to return volatility, we find that trading volume and market returns are important in explaining the time‐varying patterns of return autocorrelation.
The retirement incentive effects of Canada's Income Security programs
Authors: Baker Michael , Gruber Jonathan , Milligan Kevin
Published: May 2003

Abstract Canada has a large Income Security system for retirement that provides significant and widely varying disincentives to work at older ages. We provide an empirical analysis of the retirement incentives of the Canadian Income Security system using a new administrative database. We find that the work disincentives inherent in the Canadian Income Security system have significant impacts on retirement. This suggests that program reform can play a role in responses to fiscal pressures. We also demonstrate the importance of controlling for lifetime earnings in retirement models. Specifications without these controls overestimate the effects of the Income Security system. JEL Classification: H55, J26

Les effets d’incitation à la retraite des programmes de la sécurité du revenu au Canada Le Canada a un important système de sécurité du revenu après retraite qui crée des désincitations importantes et diverses au travail pour les gens d’un âge avancé. Les auteurs donnent des résultats d’une analyse empirique de ces incitations en utilisant certaines données administratives nouvelles. Il semble que ces désincitations au travailont un impact significatif sur les décisions de retraite. Voilà qui suggère qu’une réforme des programmes peut avoir un impact important sur les réactions aux pressions fiscales. On montre aussi que la prise en compte des revenus tout au long de lavie active a une grande importance dans les modèles de retraite. Il est clair que toutes les spécifications de modèles qui ne prennent pas en compte ces facteurs tendent à sur‐estimer les effets des programmes de la sécurité du revenu.
Poverty dynamics: empirical evidence for Canada
Authors: Finnie Ross , Sweetman Arthur
Published: May 2003

Abstract.  Poverty (low income) dynamics are explored using tax filer data covering the period 1992 to 1996. The distributions of short‐ and long‐term episodes are identified and reveal substantial differences by sex and family type. Entry and exit models explore the relationships between poverty transitions and sex, family status and other personal and situational attributes. Duration effects on exiting and re‐entering poverty are found to be important, and models including past poverty experiences point to strong ‘occurrence dependence’ for poverty entry and incidence. Fixed‐effect panel data models confirm the above and reveal asymmetries in the impacts of household transitions on poverty. JEL Classification: I3

La dynamique de la pauvreté : résultats empiriques pour le Canada.  Les auteurs examinent la dynamique de la pauvreté(bas revenus)à l’aide des données disponibles pour les citoyens qui ont soumis leurs rapports d’impôt entre 1992 et 1996. On identifie les distributions d’épisodes (courts et longs) de pauvreté, et celles‐ci révèlent des différences significatives selon le sexe et les attributs familiaux. Les modèles d’entrée et sortie identifient les relations entre le statut de pauvreté, le sexe, le statut familial, et d’autres attributs personnels et situationnels. Il appert que les effets de durée sur les périodes de sortie et de ré‐entrée dans un statut de pauvreté sont importants; les modèles qui prennent en compte les épisodes de pauvreté antérieurs montrent qu’il y a une forte corrélation (occurrence dependence) tant pour le passage au statut de pauvreté que pour l’incidence de tels épisodes. Les résultats des études transversales confirment ces résultats et révèlent des asymétries dans les impacts des transitions dans les ménages sur la pauvreté.
On estimating the cost of characteristics indices from consumer demand analysis
Authors: Lyssiotou Panayiota
Published: May 2003

Abstract.  We examine the information content of relative equivalence scales using a multiperiod framework and argue that in the absence of Independence of Base (IB) these scales can be uniquely identified from demand analysis only when the transformations of preferences through time are the same for all household types, a property termed as Intertemporally Invariant Base (IIB) utility. Restrictions imposed by IIB on conditional demands are tested empirically and found rejected within the context of a rank‐3 demand system applied to individual household data drawn from the U.K. Family Expenditure Survey 1970–86. Welfare implications of false IIB assumptions are also empirically investigated. JEL Classification: D1

A propos de l’estimation du coût des indices caractéristiques à partir de l’analyse de la demande des consommateur.  Ce mémoire examine le contenu informationnel des échelles d’équivalence relative en utilisant un cadre d’analyse sur plusieurs périodes, et suggère que, en l’absence d’une indépendance de la base (IB), ces échelles peuvent être identifiées d’une manière univoque seulement si les transformations de préférences dans le temps sont les mêmes pour tous les types de ménages. On nomme cette propriété utilité de base invariante dans le temps (IIB). Les restrictions vérifiables imposées par IIB sur les demandes conditionnelles sont vérifiées empiriquement et sont rejetées dans le contexte d’un système de demande de rang 3 appliqué aux données des ménages individuels dans une étude des dépenses des ménages de la Grande Bretagne 1970–86. Les implications de faux postulats IIB sont analysées empiriquement.
Should land and capital be taxed at a uniform rate?
Authors: Lee Kangoh
Published: May 2003

Abstract If jurisdictions are allowed to tax land and capital separately, they tax only land, because capital taxation distorts the allocation of mobile capital. To exploit absentee owners, however, jurisdictions tax land beyond the efficient level. As absentee ownership increases throughout the economy, land taxation results in greater inefficiency. To alleviate the inefficiency of overtaxing land, the higher‐level government intervenes to require jurisdictions to tax both capital and land at a uniform rate, because the desire to attract capital lowers the tax rate. Uniform taxation of land and capital, or property taxation, thus may be more efficient than separate taxation. JEL Classification: H21, H71

Est‐ce que la terre et le capital devraient être taxés d’une manière uniforme? Si on permettait aux diverses juridictions de taxer capital et terre séparément, elles taxeraient seulement la terre parce que la fiscalité imposée au capital crée des distorsions dans l’allocation du capital mobile. Mais, pour exploiter les propriétaires absents, les diverses juridictions imposent un fardeau fiscal sur la terre qui va au delà de ce que l’efficacité commande. A proportion que la propriété absente se développe dans l’économie, la fiscalité imposée à la terre devient source de plus en plus grande inefficacité. Pour réduire cette inefficacité attribuable à la sur‐taxation de la terre, le niveau sénior de gouvernement intervient pour forcer les juridictions juniors à taxer capital et terre au même taux, parce que le désir d’attirer le capital réduit le taux de taxation. Il se peut donc que la taxation uniforme de la terre et du capital, ou de la taxation sur la propriété, soit plus efficace que des taux d’imposition différents.
The law of one price: intranational evidence for Canada
Authors: Ceglowski Janet
Published: May 2003

Abstract This study investigates the behaviour of intranational prices for 45 specific consumer goods across 25 Canadian cities. It finds positive roles for distance and provincial borders in intercity price disparities. While sizable, the provincial border effect is an order of magnitude smaller than the estimates for the Canada‐U.S. border. A majority of the intercity relative price series are stationary around small mean values, indicating that long‐run price differences are close to zero. The intercity prices converge at rates considerably faster than the consensus estimates for international prices. In fact, half‐lives for intercity price deviations average well under a year. JEL Classification: F15, F31

La loi d’un seul prix : résultats intra‐nationaux pour le Canada Ce mémoire examine le comportement des prix intra‐nationaux de 45 biens de consommation spécifiques dans 25 villes canadiennes. Il semble que la distance et les frontières inter‐provinciales ont un impact sur les différentiels de prix entre villes.Même si l’impact des frontières inter‐provinciales est important, il est beaucoupplus petit que l’impact de la frontière Canada‐ U.S. Une majorité des séries de prix relatifs entre villes sont stationnaires autour de petites valeurs moyennes, ce qui suggère que les différences de prix à long terme s’approchent de zéro. Il est clair que les prix entre villes convergent à des taux considérablement plus rapides que ce qu’on observe au niveau international. En fait les déviations de prix entre villes ont une espérance de vie qui en moyenne est de moins d’un an.
International macroeconomic fluctuations and the current account
Authors: Hoffmann Mathias
Published: May 2003

Abstract.  Intertemporal models of the current account generally assume that global shocks do not affect the current account. We use this assumption to identify global and country‐specific shocks in a bivariate VAR of output and the current account. Cross‐country evidence from the G7 economies suggests that this identification works surprisingly well. We then employ our method to collect stylized facts on international macroeconomic fluctuations. We find that long‐term output growth is driven mainly by global factors in most G7 countries and that country‐specific shocks are less persistent and generally less volatile than global shocks. JEL Classification: F41, F43, C32

Fluctuations macroéconomiques internationales et compte courant.  Les modèles inter‐temporels du compte courant postulent généralement que les chocs globaux n’affectent pas le compte courant. On utilise ce postulat pour identifier les chocs globaux et ceux qui sont spécifiques à des pays donnés dans un modèle VAR du produit global et du compte courant. Les résultats transversaux pour les pays du G7 suggèrent que cette forme d’identification donne de très bons résultats. On emploie cette méthode pour examiner des faits stylisés des fluctuations macro‐économiques internationales.Il appert que la croissance à long terme du produit dépend de facteurs globaux dans la plupart des pays du G7 et que les chocs particuliers aux pays ont un impact moins permanent et moins volatile que les chocs globaux.
Financial variables and real activity in Canada
Authors: Hassapis Christis
Published: May 2003

Abstract.  In this paper we utilize Canadian and U.S. data to investigate the relationship between financial market variables (Canadian and U.S.) and Canadian output growth, using a non‐parametric technique. The financial variables examined are those that are often associated with future output growth, namely, stock prices, interest rates, interest rate spreads and monetary aggregates. Our results show that as the number of autocovariances that are assigned a non‐zero weight increases, the feedback from selected Canadian or U.S. financial variables to future Canadian output growth increases. In particular, we find that stock prices as well as yield spreads and monetary aggregates are useful predictors of output growth. This is in line with earlier parametric studies in the literature that find these variables to be good predictors of economic activity.

Variables financières et niveau d’activité réelle au Canada.  Ce mémoire utilise des données canadiennes et américaines pour analyser la relation entre les variables des marchés financiers (au Canada et aux E.U.) et la croissance du produit canadien, à l’aide d’une technique non‐paramétrique. Les variables financières analysées sont celles qui sont généralement associées à la croissance du produit national dans l’avenir, i.e., le prix des actions, les taux d’intérêt, les écarts entre taux d’intérêts, et les agrégats monétaires. Les résultats montrent que, à proportion que le nombre des auto covariances auquel on assigne une valence zéro s’accroît, les effets d’échos variables financières sur la croissance future du produit canadien s’accroissent. En particulier, il appert que les prix des actions, les écarts entre taux d’intérêts, et les agrégats monétaires sont des prédicteurs utiles de la croissance du produit. Voilà qui confirme les résultats d’études paramétriques.
Coupons and ‘everyday low prices’: price competition with multiple instruments
Authors: Kwong Lester M.K.
Published: May 2003

Abstract A simple two‐stage game is examined, where firms compete in prices by chosen pricing instruments. Those considered include a simple, uniform pricing technology and a promotional pricing technology like an advertised discount coupon. Consumers are separated by types, informed and uninformed. Therefore, a motive for price competition exists for the purpose of separating the two types of consumers. It is shown that the sustainability of an asymmetric choice of pricing instrument between the two firms will prevail in a duopoly market in equilibrium. Consequently, the coexistence of two different pricing schemes is viable even when firms are otherwise symmetric. JEL Classification: L1, L13

Coupons et « bas prix tous les jours » : concurrence par les prix à l’aide de multiples instruments Ce mémoire examine un simple jeu à deux étapes dans lequel des entreprises se concurrencent par les prix à l’aide d’un instrument particulier. Les instruments considérés incluent une simple technologie de prix uniforme, et une technologie de prix de promotion sous la forme de l’annonce d’un coupon d’escompte. On divise les consommateurs en deux groupes – ceux qui sont informés et ceux qui ne le sont pas. Un des motifs pour ce genre de concurrence est de séparer les deux types de consommateurs. On montre qu’on peut soutenir un choix asymétrique d’instrument de tarification entre les deux entreprises dans un marché de duopole en équilibre. En conséquence, la coexistence de deux stratégies de prix différentes est viable quand les entreprises sont symétriques sous tous les autres rapports.
Optimal price regulation in a growth model with monopolistic suppliers of intermediate goods
Authors: Evans Lewis , Quigley Neil , Zhang Jie
Published: May 2003

Abstract.  In this paper we investigate the trade‐off faced by regulators who must set a price for an intermediate good somewhere between the marginal cost and the monopoly price. We utilize a growth model with monopolistic suppliers of intermediate goods. Investment in innovation is required to produce a new intermediate good. Marginal cost pricing deters innovation, while monopoly pricing maximizes innovation and economic growth at the cost of some static inefficiency. We demonstrate the existence of a second‐best price above the marginal cost but below the monopoly price, which maximizes consumer welfare. Simulation results suggest that substantial reductions in consumption, production, growth, and welfare occur where regulators focus on static efficiency issues by setting prices at or near marginal cost. JEL Classification: D42, D61, D92, O38

Régulation du prix optimal dans un modèle de croissance où existent des fournisseurs monopolistes de biens intermédiaires.  Dans ce mémoire, on enquête sur la relation d’équivalence à laquelle les régulateurs doivent faire face au moment de définir le prix quelque part entre le niveau du coût marginal et le niveau du prix de monopole. On utilise un modèle de croissance dans le cas où existent des fournisseurs monopolistes de biens intermédiaires. Des investissements dans l’innovation sont nécessaires pour produire un nouveau produit intermédiaire. La tarification au coût marginal décourage l’innovation alors que la tarification au niveau du prix de monopole maximise l’innovation et la croissance au prix d’une certaine inefficacité statique. On montre que l’existence d’un prix qui est un optimum de second ordre et se situe au‐dessus du coût marginal mais au dessous du prix de monopole maximise le niveau de bien‐être des consommateurs. Des résultats de simulation suggèrent que des réductions substantielles dans la consommation, la production, la croissance, et le niveau de bien‐être se produisent quand les régulateurs sont focalisés sur les problèmes d’efficacité statique et fixent les prix au niveau (ou près du niveau) du coût marginal.
Economic and environmental impacts of the Kyoto Protocol
Authors: Böhringer Christoph , Vogt Carsten
Published: May 2003

AbstractIn 2003 the Kyoto Protocol, which imposes legally binding greenhouse gas emission constraints on industrialized countries, is likely to enter into force. The Protocol has been celebrated as a milestone in climate protection, but standard economic theory casts doubt that it will go beyond symbolic policy. In this paper, we show that the final concretion of the Kyoto Protocol is consistent with the theoretical prediction: Kyoto more or less boils down to business‐as‐usual without significant compliance costs to ratifying parties. JEL Classification: D58, Q43, Q58

Conséquences économiques et environnementales du protocole de KyotoEn 2003, le protocole de Kyoto, qui impose aux pays industrialisés l’obligation de réduire leurs émissions de gaz à effet de serre, entrera probablement en vigueur. Si le protocole a été accueilli comme un grand pas en avant dans le combat pour protéger l’environnement, la théorie économique jette un regard sceptique sur la portée réelle d’un tel accord et le considére comme un geste symbolique. Dans ce mémoire, on montre que la concrétisation finale de l’accord de Kyoto s’arrime aux prédictions théoriques : Kyoto n’est rien de plus que « business‐as‐usual » et n’impliquera pas de coûts significatifs pour les parties qui ont signé le protocole.
Toxic release inventories and green consumerism: empirical evidence from Canada
Authors: Antweiler Werner , Harrison Kathryn
Published: May 2003

Abstract.  Do firms abate pollution in response to actual or anticipated green consumerism? Lacking direct observational data on the extent of green consumerism, we construct an indirect method to elicit its effect on pollution abatement. If environmentally motivated consumers target companies rather than particular facilities of a multi‐product firm, green consumerism can be identified through intra‐firm inter‐plant spillover effects in pollution abatement. We test the prediction that ‘environmentally‐leveraged’ firms with consumer market exposure experience larger emission reductions. We use 1993–99 panel data from Canada's National Pollutant Release Inventory (NPRI), with pollutants adjusted for toxicity. Our empirical results find statistically significant evidence of green consumerism, but its economic magnitude is very small. JEL Classification: Q2, R3

Inventaires des émanations toxiques et consumérisme vert : résultats pour le Canada.  Est‐ce que les entreprises réduisent la pollution en réponse au consumérisme vert – présent ou anticipé? Comme on n’a pas de façon de le savoir directement, on élabore une méthode indirecte de mesurer son impact sur l réduction de la pollution. Si des consommateurs intéressés à l’environnement ciblent certaines sociétés plutôt que des installations particulières d’une entreprise multi‐produit, le consumérisme vert a un impact détectable via des effets de retombées des politiques de réduction de pollution intra‐firme entre les installations. On met au test l’hypothèse que les entreprises qui sont exposées à des pressions sur le marché effectuent des réductions de pollution plus importantes. Utilisant des données de l’inventaire national des rejets de polluants du Canada pour 1993–99, on trouve que l’effet du consumérisme vert est statistiquement significatif mais économiquement très faible.
Timing and the Holding Periods of Institutional Real Estate
Authors: Collett David , Lizieri Colin , Ward Charles
Published: May 2003

Literature on investors' holding periods for securities suggests that high transaction costs are associated with longer holding periods. Return volatility, by contrast, is associated with shorter holding periods. In real estate, high transaction costs and illiquidity imply longer holding periods. Research on depreciation and obsolescence suggests that there might be an optimal holding period. Sales rates and holding periods for U.K. institutional real estate are analyzed, using a proportional hazards model, over an 18‐year period. The results show longer holding periods than those claimed by investors, with marked differences by type of property and over time. The results shed light on investor behavior.
Assessing the Forecasting Performance of Regime‐Switching, ARIMA and GARCH Models of House Prices
Authors: Crawford Gordon W. , Fratantoni Michael C.
Published: May 2003

While price changes on any particular home are difficult to predict, aggregate home price changes are forecastable. In this context, this paper compares the forecasting performance of three types of univariate time series models: ARIMA, GARCH and regime‐switching. The underlying intuition behind regime‐switching models is that the series of interest behaves differently depending on the realization of an unobservable regime variable. Regime‐switching models are a compelling choice for real estate markets that have historically displayed boom and bust cycles. However, we find that, while regime‐switching models can perform better in‐sample, simple ARIMA models generally perform better in out‐of‐sample forecasting.