bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Standard open operative interventions in surgical treatment of patients, suffering an acute complicated pancreatitis
Authors: Аndriushchenko V. P. , Аndriushchenko D. V. , Lysiuk Yu. S.
Published: September 2018

Objective. To determine the character and optimal volume of standard open surgical interventions in an acute complicated pancreatitis (ACP) with elaboration of the main technical elements of the operations.

Маterials and methods. There were operated 96 patients, suffering ACP. The main group consisted of 47 patients, in whom open interventions were performed primarily in 19, and as the second-stage procedure after application of miniinvasive interventional technologies (МIТ) – in 28. The comparison group consisted of 49 patients, in whom standard operations were done only.

Results. Application of MIТ have promoted the indications narrowing for performance of primary open operations more than twice. In the main group the arcuate-like subcostal access was applied predominantly - in 26 (55%) observations (χ²=14.287; р=002), while in a control one – a median upper laparotomy – in 37 (76%) observations (χ²=38.43, р < 0.001). The method of closed draining in accordance to procedure of Beger was used predominantly in the main group of patients – in 43% of observations, comparing with a control group - 9% of observations (χ²=12.965; р=0.003). In 23% patients of the main group and in 26% patients of a control one (χ²=0.0013; р=0.05), when the extended purulent-necrotic inflammation process have presented, a staged sanation was applied, using programmed relaparotomies. Some technical elements of the surgical intervention were improved.

Conclusion. Application of standard open operations in accordance to elaborated principle is accompanied by improvement of the treatment results in patients, suffering ACP.
Tactics of treatment of varicose disease, complicated by thrombosis, using miniinvasive methods
Authors: Boyko V. V. , Cherkasheninov Е. G. , Prasol V. А. , V. Ivanova Yu. V. , Аndreyeshchev S. А. , Pulyaeva I. S.
Published: September 2018

Objective. To determine the treatment tactics for varicose dilation of veins, complicated by thrombosis of subcutaneous veins and the shin deep veins, using miniinvasive methods.
Маterals and methods. The results of treatment in the IGUS named after V. Т. Zaytsev NAMS of Ukraine in 2015 - 2017 yrs of 80 patients, suffering varicothrombophlebitis, were analyzed. The patients were divided into two groups. In Group I 38 patients, suffering varicothrombophlebitis and/or the shin deep vein thrombosis (DVT), were included, who were treated in accordance to the algorithm proposed. In Group II 42 patients with the same pathology were included, to them a standard treatment was conducted.
Results. Immediately after the operation in the Group I patients a severe morbidity, connected with the operation technique (DVT, pulmonary thromboembolism, hemorrhage) were absent. Rate of cutaneous neurological disorders in distal parts of the extremities in patients, to whom endovenous laser coagulation was performed, have constituted 5.2%, and in radiofrequency ablation (RFA) – 2.6%. Due to differentiated approach applied for determination of the operative intervention volume for varicose dilation of veins, complicated by varicothrombophlebitis and/or DVTH of the shin, it became possible to perform operative intervention of lesser traumaticity and to achieve good immediate result in majority of the patients.
In Group II in 1 patient postoperative period have complicated by DVT. Of the local complications lymphorrhea was observed in 5% patients, and in 2 patients – the extended femoral hematomas.
Conclusion. Operative treatment in the RFA volume or endovenous laser coagulation of the stem on the level of reflux with ligature/ablation of perforant veins after conduction of anticoagulant therapy on stage of total recanalization are indicated in patients, suffering thrombosis of the big subcutaneous vein or small subcutaneous vein and deep veins of the shin. In the patients, suffering thrombosis of stem, the deep shin veins after conduction of operative treatment it is mandatory to administer anticoagulant therapy in the treatment dosage during 7 - 14 days, depending on indices of soluble complexes of the fibrin monomers and/or D-dimer.
ANALISIS PENGARUH CUSTOMER RELATIONSHIP MARKETING TERHADAP LOYALITAS NASABAH PADA PT. BANK SINARMAS KANTOR CABANG MATARAM
Authors: Suparwata Dewa Made
Published: September 2018

Every company aspires rapid growth in each business unit lived. One thing you can do is to pay attention to aspects of customer loyalty. The purpose of research is to analyze and prove the influence of Trust, Commitment Company, Communication, Conflict Management Customer Loyalty At PT. Bank Sinarmas branch office Mataram. This type of research is the study of causality. The sampling technique used was purposive sampling as many as 170 customers. Analysis of data using multiple linear regression analysis model. The results showed that (1) There is a significant influence of Confidence in Bank Sinarmas Customer Loyalty Branch Mataram. (2) There is a significant influence of the Company's commitment to Customer Loyalty Branch Bank Sinarmas Mataram. (3) There is a significant influence on the Communication on Bank Sinarmas Customer Loyalty Branch Mataram. (4) There is a significant influence of the Conflict Management to Customer Loyalty Branch Bank Sinarmas Mataram. For the management of Bank Sinarmas Branch Mataram, to improve customer loyalty is with the aspect of trust, Corporate Commitment, Communication and Conflict Management for all aspects of this significant effect on customer loyalty. Keywords: Trust, Commitment Company, Communication, Conflict Management, Customer Loyalty
PENERAPAN BALANCED SCORECARD SEBAGAI INDIKATOR DALAM PENGUKURAN KINERJA KOPERASI (STUDI PADA KPRI KARYA DHARMA SELONG)
Authors: Haris Abdul
Published: September 2018

This study aims to determine the performance of KPRI "Karya Dharma" Selong from a financial perspective, customer perspective, internal business processes, learning and growth perspective throughthe Balanced Scorecard analysis. The method used is descriptive method. A study on the phenomenon orpopulation obtained by researchers of the subject in the form of individual, organizational, industry orany other perspective. The data used in this study comes from the Annual Member Meeting Report ofKPRI "Dharma Karya" Selong fiscal year 2011 to fiscal year 2015. These results indicate that theperformance measurement results KPRI "Dharma Karya" Selong seen from the perspective of financialand customer perspective is generally considered "fair". Meanwhile, if viewed from the perspective ofinternal business processes and learning and growth perspective is generally rated "Good". Theimplication of this finding is that KPRI "Dharma Karya" Selong can apply the method BalancedScorecard as a performance measurement system that can measure the performance of the cooperative ofcooperatives in a comprehensive or exhaustive.Keywords: Performance Measurement, Financial Perspective, Customer Perspective, internal business processes, learning and growth perspective, Balanced Scorecard
ANALISIS PENCIPTAAN NILAI BERSAMA (VALUE CO-CREATION)DI PT GERBANG NTB EMAS
Authors: Sugiharto Guruh
Published: September 2018

Sales of products achieved by PT Gerbang NTB Emas were not yet optimal. There weresome consumer obstacles and complaints that were occur. Among them were lack of production machineries and skilled manpower, quality of goods under specification and production time is not maximized. One way that can be done is to optimize value creation between consumers and producers. Value created together is expected to provide benefits for both parties. In this study aimed to analyze the process of value co-creation that occurs between the company (PT GNE) and its customers. The research method used is qualitative approach with data collection through interview, observation and documentation. The number of interviewees was five employees and one consumer. The collected data were analyzed with content analysis using NVivo software. The result of this research is that value co-creation at PT GNE can be explained through dialogue, access, risk management and transparency. Value can be interpreted as product innovation, service and strategic policy. By knowing these aspects, the company can maximize value creation along with consumers. The company gets sales profits and the consumer gets the desired product.  Keywords: value, co-creation, dialogue, access, risk assessment, transparency, product innovation, service, strategic policy
PENGARUH HEDONIC MOTIVE & VISUAL MERCHANDISING TERHADAP SHOPPING LIFESTYLE & IMPULSE BUYING DI MATAHARI DEPARTMEN STORE LOMBOK EPICENTRUM MALL
Authors: Putri Ni Made Dwi Desyantari
Published: September 2018

This research is aimed at examining and analyzing the effect of hedonic motive on shopping lifestyle, the effect of visual merchandising on shopping lifestyle, the effect of hedonic motive on impulse buying, the effect of visual merchandising on impulse buying, the effect of shopping lifestyle on impulse buying, this research quantitative study with the population of all men and women who had ever shopped in Matahari Department Store Lombok Epicentrum Mall in Mataram. The data were analyzed with structural equation model. The research showed that hedonic motive has sigificant effect on shopping lifestyle, visual merchandising has significant effect on shopping lifestyle. hedonic motive has sigificant effect on impulse buying, visual merchandising has significant effect on impulse buying. Keywords: hedonic motive, visual merchandising, shopping lifestyle, Impulse buying
Robust and Secured Image Steganography using LSB and Encryption with QR Code
Authors: Noman Abed Hazim
Published: September 2018

The great development obtained with digital communication system depends on the improvement of the amount and security of transmitting information, the secrecy of data transmitted becomes a main subject for the researcher. Cryptography and Steganography play a major role for secured data transfer. In this research, the cryptography and steganography method was proposed for information security. In cryptography, the encrypted message was obtained by XOR the secret message with QR code. While, in Steganography the encrypted  message was embedded inside cover image using LSB technique. The new approach in this research is use of the QR technique as well as the encrypted message was hidden in places selected using the bat algorithm. Secret message with different sizes was tested with many cover imagesto verify the efficiency of the proposed method. In the end, to measure the quality of cover image after the process of embedding, a group of standard parameters has adopted. The results of parameters showed the proposed method hasthe highest security and integrity.
Reverse Capital Flight to Pakistan: Analysis of Evidence
Authors: Zafar Mahmood
Published: September 2018

Capital flight from Pakistan has remained one of the major concerns of policy makers, mainly because of the nature of private capital outflows; that is, whereas private citizens hold a large amount of foreign assets, the country’s burden of foreign debt continues to grow. Capital flight over and above normal levels raises serious concerns. Capital flight induces foreign donors to demand repatriation of private capital held abroad in return for their support. Previous studies have largely ignored the fact that illegal capital flow is a two way phenomenon. Private citizens’ foreign capital is brought into the country when time is opportune. Using the measure of trade misinvoicing, this paper finds that between 1972 and 2013 the (net) reverse capital flight in Pakistan was of the order of about $30 billion. To explain this phenomenon, the paper examines the evolution of Pakistan’s exchange and trade control regimes in four phases. It is found that reversed capital flight increased during liberal regimes when both current and capital accounts were liberalised, meaning that in the absence of strong regulatory bodies, private citizens could manipulate trade and exchange laws. The paper offers some specific policy recommendations to restrict cross-border movement of capital through illegal channels. JEL Classification: F21, F32, H26
Policy Options for Financing Urban Transportation in Resource Constrained Environments: The Case of Lahore, Pakistan
Authors: Ammar A. Malik
Published: September 2018

In all prosperous and modern economies, cities are the engines of growth and melting pots of diversely talented individuals. They offer inclusive environments with openness and access to opportunities, enabled by efficient and affordable transport systems leading to economically productive interaction between citizens. On the other hand, many cities in rapidly urbanising developing countries have not been able to develop efficient spatial structures, which results in traffic congestion and poor transport services. Their resource-constrained governments often struggle to fill gaps in transport infrastructure demand, which in the case of megacities requires mass transit projects. In the case of Lahore, Pakistan, however, the Provincial and Federal governments appear deeply committed to undertaking mass transit services despite chronic fiscal and financial constraints. The paper first explores Lahore’s urban form and function from the transportation and land-use perspectives, presenting an in-depth sub-city level analysis of spatial variations in key characteristics. Second, by undertaking a review of transport infrastructure financing literature it evaluates the viability of three main policy options in Lahore, including public private partnerships, municipal finance options and reforming urban land-use zoning. It concludes that governments in such environments could benefit from land-financing by utilising centrally located State-owned lands through market oriented land-use regulation reforms. JEL Classification: R11; R58; Z18; P25 Keywords: Regional Economic Activity, Regional Development Planning and Policy, Public Policy, Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
A Review of Contributions of Friedrich List Commemorating his 225-Year Anniversary.
Authors: Arno Mong Daastø
Published: September 2018

Friedrich List was a German-American economist who considered economics a science of politics and culture. As a modernist, he promoted an urban-industrial society, through gradual and pragmatic policies. He had considerable impact on a geopolitical scale, and his theories contributed to significant changes in the international balance of powers. For a good reason, the textbooks of mainstream Anglo-American economics weeded out the German-American economist Friedrich List (1789-1846). Why? Because List gave away the family secret. List described its details, reasons and logic. The treasure to be kept secret was, and is, the strategy to accumulate national wealth and power. List has thus been characterised as:
Atif Mian and Amir Sufi. House of Debt: How They (and You) Caused the Great Recession, and How We Can Prevent It from Happening Again. University of Chicago Press. USA. 2014. 192 pages.
Authors: Asad Zaman Kemal
Published: September 2018

This is a review and a summary of some of the key arguments presented by Mian and Sufi in their recent book “House of Debt.” It highlights the contribution of Mian and Sufi by showing how they have solved the mystery of why there was a huge drop in aggregate demand during the Great Depression of 1929 and also following the recent Global Financial Crisis of 2007-08. The article shows how major economists like Keynes, Friedman, Lucas and others tried and failed to provide an adequate explanation of this mystery. The key to the mystery is the huge amount of levered debt present during both of these economic crises. The solution suggested by Mian and Sufi is to replace interest based debt by equity based contracts in financial markets. This solution resonates strongly with Islamic teachings on finance. These links are also highlighted in this article. JEL classification: B22, E12, E32 Keywords: Great Depression, Global Financial Crisis, Debt-Deflation, Levered Debt
The Effect of Oil Price Shocks on the Dynamic Relationship between Current Account and Exchange Rate: Evidence from D-8 Countries
Authors: Syeda Qurat-Ul-Ain  , Saira Tufail
Published: September 2018

The effect of oil price shocks on global economy has been a great concern since 1970s and has instigated a great deal of research investigating macroeconomic consequences of oil price fluctuations. Later on, the instability in the Middle East and recent oil price hike confirmed the enduring significance of the issue. Though a voluminous body of literature has evolved examining the bearings of oil prices for internal sectors of economies [to name a few, e.g., Barsky and Kilian (2004); Kilian (2008a,b); Hamilton (2008)], the studies analysing the external sector response to oil price shocks are very few [see, e.g. Kilian, et al. (2007)]. The determination of current account and exchange rate—the two major indicators of external sector—has been studied widely in theoretical and empirical literature but mostly the discussion of the two variables largely remained separate [Lee and Chinn (1998)]. Similarly, investigation of simultaneous response of these two variables to an oil price shock remained relatively less ventured avenue of research. Initial work done on the relationship between current account and oil price could not ascertain conclusive link between these two variables.1 Recent work on the issue revealed the diversity of responses of current account of different countries to an oil price shock. For instance, oil price increase deteriorates current account balance of developing countries [OECD (2004); Rebucci and Spatafora (2006); Killian, et al. (2007)] but may improve it if the country happens to be a net oil-exporter. This implies that the relationship depends on the number of factors among which oil dependency of country, oil-intensity of production process2 and responses of non-oil trade balance3 and sources of oil price fluctuations4are of particular significance.
Gender and Ultimatum in Pakistan: Revisited
Authors: Naeem Saima , Zaman Asad
Published: September 2018

The aim of the present study is twofold. First, we develop a theoretical model which incorporates the role of institutions in promoting economic growth. The theoretical model predicts that rent seeking activities decrease as institutional quality improves, and hence income increases and vice versa. Second, we conduct an empirical analysis to quantify the impact of institutions on economic growth in selected Asian economies over the period 1996- 2012 by employing both static and dynamic panel system Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique with fixed effects. The empirical results reveal that institutions indeed are important in determining the long run economic growth in Asian economies. However, the impact of institutions on economic growth differs across Asian economies and depends on the level of economic development. The results reveal that institutions are more effective in developed Asia than developing Asia. This evidence implies that different countries require different set of institutions to promote long term economic growth.
From Chronic Disease to Food Poverty: Evidence from Pakistan
Authors: Abid A. Burki  , Mushtaq A. Khan  , Sobia Malik
Published: September 2018

While poverty and its causes have long been studied by economists, the link between chronic disease and food poverty has been a neglected area of research. This article investigates the impact of chronic disease on food poverty by using two rounds of panel data of Pakistan and linear probability regression framework. Chronic disease is defined to include diabetes, arthritis, heart disease, AIDS, cancer and asthma. The regression results show that on average the effect of chronic disease on food poverty is statistically equal to zero, but this effect significantly varies by income groups categorised by three non-income based classifications. We note that the incidence of chronic disease is significantly higher among non-poor when permanent income of the household is incorporated into the model, most notably among individuals coming from low- and middle-income backgrounds. Thus public health policies that seek awareness, prevention and treatment of chronic diseases have the potential to alleviate poverty in a high poverty environment.
New Keynesian Macroeconomic Model and Monetary Policy in Pakistan
Authors: Shahzada M. Naeem Nawaz  , Ather Maqsood Ahmed
Published: September 2018

The New Keynesian (NK) models have advantage over the Real Business Cycle (RBC) models as they allow rigidities in the structure of the model, hence provide built-in mechanism to incorporate the structural shocks. The estimation of the NK model for Pakistan’s economy remains a relatively unexplored area. This study attempts to estimate a closed economy version of the NK model using robust econometric technique. On the empirical side macroeconomic dynamics have been investigated in response to unanticipated monetary shock. The reaction of the monetary authority (the State Bank of Pakistan) in response to structural shocks has been assessed by exploring the role of forward looking expectations. The SVAR model has been employed to estimate the structural parameters. The response of macroeconomic aggregates to structural shocks has also been simulated along with discussing the forecast error variance decomposition. The role of forward looking expectations is found to play prominent role in the prevailing market structure of the country. The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has been found to respond to shocks after a lag of one or more periods indicating time inconsistency problem which is due to discretionary monetary policy stance being adopted by the monetary authority. The distorted beliefs of economic agents about the stance of monetary policy have pointed towards weak effectiveness of the monetary policy. The results suggest that the SBP would have to adopt an independent and transparent monetary policy by following some sort of Taylor-type rule. JEL Classification: C32, C51, E52, E58 Keywords: New Keynesian Models, Real Business Cycle Models, Forward Looking Expectations, SVAR Model, Price Puzzle
Job Mismatches in Pakistan: Is there Some Wage Penalty to Graduates?
Authors: Shujaat Farooq
Published: September 2018

In this study, an attempt has been made to estimate the incidence of job mismatch and its impacts on graduate‘s earnings in Pakistan. The study has divided the job mismatch into three categories; qualification-job mismatch, skill mismatch and field of study and job mismatch. The primary dataset has been used in which the formal sector employed graduates have been studied. This study has measured the qualification-job mismatch by three approaches and found that about one-third of the graduates are facing qualification-job mismatch. Similarly, more than one-fourth of the graduates are mismatched in skill, about half of them are over-skilled and the half are under-skilled. The analysis also shows that 11.3 percent of the graduates have irrelevant and 13.8 percent have slightly relevant jobs to their studied field of disciplines. Our analysis shows that over-qualified graduates face wage penalty under different approaches. After controlling skill heterogeneity, there is less penalty to apparently over-qualified and more penalty to genuinely over-qualified. The over-skilled graduates face wage penalties and the under-skilled get wage premiums as compared to the matched workers. A good field of study and job matches also improve the wages of graduates. JEL Classification: I23, I24, J21, J24, J31 Keywords: Education and Inequality, Higher Education, Human Capital, Labour Market, Wages
Are Our Export-Oriented Industries Technically More Efficient?
Authors: Tariq Mahmood  , Ejaz Ghani  , Musleh Ud Din .
Published: September 2018

This paper makes a comparison of technical efficiency scores between groups of exporting and non-exporting industries. Using data from Census of Manufacturing Industries in Pakistan (2005-06), technical efficiency scores of 102 large scale manufacturing industries are estimated. Stochastic Frontier Analysis as well as Data Envelopment Analysis technique are used to estimate technical efficiency scores. In Stochastic Frontier Analysis Translog and Cobb-Douglass Production Functions are specified, whereas in Data Envelopment Analysis technique, efficiency scores are computed under the assumptions of Constant Returns to Scale as well as Variable Returns to Scale. Industries showing high technical efficiency include Tobacco Products, Refined Petroleum Products, Carpets and Rugs, and Meat and Meat Products. Industries showing low technical efficiency include Refractory Ceramic Products, Electricity Distribution and Control Apparatus, Fish and Fish Products, Basic Precious Metals and Aluminum and its Products. Comparison of mean efficiency scores between exporting and non-exporting industries does not indicate any significant difference between efficiency scores across types of industries. JEL Classification: D24, L6, O14, F14 Keywords: Manufacturing Industries, Technical Efficiency, Stochastic Frontier Analysis, Data Envelopment Analysis, International Trade
Trade Shocks and Labour Adjustment: Evidence from Pakistan’s Manufacturing Industries
Authors: Javed Iqbal  , Misbah Nosheen  , Syed Nawab Haider Naqvi
Published: September 2018

The present study is an attempt to explore the impact of trade liberalisation on employment and wages of production and non-production workers in large scale manufacturing industries of Pakistan. We use a sample of 18 industrial establishments with a time series data covering a period 1970-71 to 2005-06. In order to account for endogeniety problem, this study uses the Generalised Method of Moments (GMM). The study comes up with the findings that trade liberalisation has significantly negative impact on employment of both production and non-production workers. On the other hand, trade liberalisation has a significantly positive impact on wages of production workers, but it has no significant impact on wages of non-production workers. The negative impact of trade is attributed to the high protection given to most of the inefficient industries in the post liberalisation period. On the other hand, reduction in non-production worker employment is not unexpected as in case of developing country like Pakistan, trade liberalisation is supposed to displace capital intensive industries that employ most of the non-production (skilled) workers. Keywords: Production Worker, Non-production Workers, Trade, Employment, Wages
Shocks as a Source of Vulnerability: An Empirical Investigation from Pakistan
Authors: Rashida Haq
Published: September 2018

The objective of this paper is to investigate the incidence of different types of shocks in rural Pakistan and identify the household characteristics that are associated with this phenomenon. It is observed that one-third of households experience an adverse shock, be it natural/agricultural, economic, social or relating to health. The natural/agricultural shocks have major share in the total burden of shocks while the households‘ coping mechanism is overwhelmingly informal and largely asset-based. The poorest of the households adopt behaviour-based strategies like reducing food consumption, employ child labour, work more hours etc. Overall, households of with less educated heads, high dependency ratio, large household size, low welfare ratio, farm household, ownership of land and residing in south Punjab or Sindh are more vulnerable to suffer shocks, particularly of income. Vulnerability in terms of a decline in consumption is observed for households who are hit by natural/agricultural or health shocks. For all these reasons, a gradual shift from traditional emergency relief measures towards ex-ante actions to reduce and mitigate hazard impacts should be encouraged along with non- exploitative credit and more effective safety nets. JEL Classification: C21, C25, I32 Keywords: Shocks, Vulnerability, Poverty
The Presidential Address
Authors: Asad Zaman
Published: September 2018

Aslam-o-alaeekum! Thank you very much for coming. I would like to welcome you all to the Conference and hope it would be of benefit to us, not just academically and intellectually but that it would be of benefit to billions of people on earth who are living in abject poverty. One of the important things to realise is that this is not inevitable but rather is a result of the choices we have made. What are these wrong choices and how can they be changed is the theme of this Conference. One of the things I would like to say is that world is a battle place of ideas and these are being played out on a large scale. In the start of the 20th century, growth was understood as the process of capital accumulation. Marx and Keynes and classical economists agree on this idea that growth is about getting more wealth. However, this idea has fallen into disrepute and the clear conclusion is that growth is about development of human capabilities. It is a multidimensional process. It has many components and just the accumulation of wealth is not the solution to the problems we face. Again, it was thought that development was about gaining technology and building industries but I think the realisation is growing stronger that it is all about human lives.
Global Multidimensional Poverty Index (The Mahbub Ul Haq Memorial Lecture)
Authors: Sabina Alkire
Published: September 2018

Ladies and gentlemen, and friends, Asslam o alaeekum! It is really a joy and an honour to be here at the PIDE Conference and also to be able to speak in the lecture that carries the name of Mahbub Ul Haq. I was honoured to do the doctoral fieldwork affiliated with the Human Development Centre (HDC) in Islamabad. I did my D.Phil fieldwork in 1996 and 1997 and of course then participated in the activities of the HDC at that time. It was really the vision of Mahbub Ul Haq, his eloquence, passion and commitment to the work, which gives one a sense of gravity and a sense of potential importance of gathering communities of people to debate issues about which we perhaps do not agree but which are so important to the society. I hold that memory very much in the mind. What I would to do today is to speak a little bit about multidimensional poverty not as an end in itself but, as we have heard in all of the presentations in this Conference, as the reason to address poverty, inequality, or inclusive growth to use the tools of our trade as agents of change. I begin with the quote from John Dreze and Amartya Sen that positive change have often occurred and yielded some liberation when the remedy of ailments has been sought actively and with vigour. I think one of the distinguishing features of the academic conferences it that we get space and time to really try to crystallise some of the issues that lies at the heart of these topics.
Cluster-Based MSE Development: The Role of Kaizen Training
Authors: Tetsushi Sonobe  , Keijiro Otsuka
Published: September 2018

It has been increasingly recognized that entrepreneurship holds the key to industrial development in developing countries [World Bank (2012)]. Indeed, a significant number of studies find that productivity and profitability vary greatly across enterprises even in the same industry in the same country, and that a large part of the variation can be accounted for by the difference in management practices1Identifying and supporting high-potential entrepreneurs may be the key to the success of industrial development. Entrepreneurship is the capacity to introduce new ideas into practice and to manage enterprise operations efficiently. Innovation here does not necessarily mean scientific discovery or engineering invention but the Schumpeterian creation of a new combination of production resources and new ideas to increase profits. In the context of developing economies, innovation includes borrowing technology or learning from abroad. The first introduction of products and production processes from developed countries into a developing country and the first adoption of management practices that may be common in developed countries but are novel in developing countries are considered to be innovations.
Targeting Performance of Community-based Development Interventions: An Econometric Analysis of a WomenFocused and Women-Managed Non-Governmental Organisation in Rural Pakistan
Authors: Hidayat Ullah Khan  , Takashi Kurosaki
Published: September 2018

The approach of community-based development (CBD) is expected to improve targeting and reduce programme costs of poverty reduction policies, besides other positive contributions [Mansuri and Rao (2004)]. 1 Furthermore, the use of local knowledge is expected to bear greater relevance in a situation where credible monetary data for potential use in targeting activities are not available. According to Alatas, et al. (2012), in developing countries—where the majority of potential target group is employed in the informal sector—the availability of verifiable income records is always an issue. Therefore, it is difficult to identify target groups by employing conventional targeting techniques such as means tests. For these reasons, identification through the CBD approach is expected to improve targeting.
Are Defense Expenditures Pro Poor or Anti Poor in Pakistan? An Empirical Investigation
Authors: Fiaz Hussain  , Shahzad Hussain  , Naila Erum
Published: September 2018

Recent increase in defense expenditure (Dexp hereinafter) in Pakistan due to increase in internal security and terrorism is an issue of concern to many Pakistani and other stakeholders in the Pakistan economy. Presently, internal security issues especially that of the increasingly violent homegrown terrorism is forcing increasing financial cost on government‘s expenditure towards defense sector. According to Budget documents, defense budget amounts to Rs 700. 2 billion for the 2014-15 fiscal year compared with Rs 627.2 billion allocated in the preceding fiscal year, showing an increase of Rs 73 billion. However, these figures do not include Rs 163.4 billion allocated for pensions of the military personnel.1 In addition to this, military would also be given Rs 165 billion under the contingent liability and Rs 85 billion under the Coalition Support Fund (CSF). This means that in reality Rs 1113 billion has been allocated for the military which is about 28.2 percent of the country‘s total budget [Sheikh and Yousaf (2014)]. This has led to diversion of the money needed for much-needed development projects, as the share of current expenditure in total budgetary outlay for 2014-15 is 80.5 percent.2 This diversion of funds has economic implication since some social sectors are likely to suffer in Pakistan
Socio-Economic Analysis of Household Energy Security: Evidence from 3D Energy Losses Surface Maps (ELSMs) of a Town Using Conjuncture of Factors Matrix, Digital and Mathematical Analysis
Authors: Ejaz Gul  , Imran Sharif Chaudhry
Published: September 2018

Pakistan is facing perpetual and worsening energy crisis. For vision 2025, the most important litmus test is to overcome energy crisis and ensure energy security by imaginative and innovative energy alternatives. In the same context, scientists, experts and researchers have been focusing on renewables and non-renewable energy generation alternatives, but have largely ignored the flip side. The extravagant use of energy, unlawful connections and losses in distribution system are contributors to ongoing energy crisis. For energy security in a developing country like Pakistan, elimination of energy losses seems a viable option, alongside generation of energy. Therefore, there is a need to have socio-economic analysis of energy losses. In this paper, energy losses for electricity were estimated for Lali Bagh Town of Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province using a versatile and innovative socio-economic framework. This framework was based on factors matrix comprising socio-economic, environmental and energy factors pertaining to households. Within the factors matrix approach, three methods were used for analysis of energy losses; the statistical analysis to obtain trend and ratings of electricity losses, digital analysis of the data by computer assisted qualitative data analysis software (CAQDAS) to get the digitally iterated and attenuated models along with representative equations and mathematical analysis of equations by Newton-Leibniz integration process to obtain numerical value of the ratings. Based on the results obtained, three dimensional energy losses surface maps (ELSMs) were prepared for Lali Bagh Town of Peshawar, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province. At the end, policy recommendations have been given in the context of vision 2025. Paper is a unique combination of theoretical, mathematical and digital cum spatial economics. JEL Classification: O22, Q21, Q31, Q41. Keywords: Socio-economic, Analysis, Energy, Security, Electricity, Losses, Factors, Matrix, Digital, Maps.
Inaugural Address
Authors: Ahsan Iqbal
Published: September 2018

President Pakistan Society of Development Economists (PSDE) and Vice Chancellor of Pakistan Institute of Development Economics (PIDE) Dr Asad Zaman, Secretary Planning, Secretary PSDE, distinguished economists, eminent scholars from overseas, and young economists of Pakistan. Ladies and gentlemen, it is indeed a great honour and privilege for me to be the chief guest at the opening ceremony of the 31st Annual General Meeting and Conference of Pakistan Society of Development Economists. I happen to be a teacher as well as the politician, so, I promise you to be succinct while inaugurating the Conference. It is a matter of great pride to acknowledge that the tradition initiated by the Society in 1982 continues with great strength. All credit goes to Prof. Nawab Haider Naqvi, one of the founding fathers of this tradition. It is also a tribute to the sincerity of those who are keeping this tradition alive. I hope this tradition of knowledge sharing and intellectual debate will be of practical benefit to the development journey of Pakistan. I am sure that it will go on uninterrupted in future as well, and through such platforms we will be getting new ideas and solutions to our problems. Allama Iqbal also penned down such thoughts:
Determinants of GDP Fluctuations in Selected South Asian Countries: A Macro-Panel Study
Authors: Ghulam Mohey-ud-din .  , Muhammad Wasif Siddiqui
Published: September 2018

Now a days, the issue of volatility in GDP is becoming a fundamental development concern due to the undeniable connections between volatility and lack of development. In addition, the recognition of the negative link between short-term fluctuations and long-term growth not only signifies the importance of exploring this link but also stresses the importance of studying the determinants of the GDP fluctuations so that the efforts to manage these fluctuations can be made. Therefore, keeping in view, the importance of studying the factor causing fluctuations in GDP, the present study aims at exploring the determinants of GDP fluctuations using macro panel approach in a panel of five selected South Asian countries (SSAC) including Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka over the period of 1980- 2010. For this purpose, modern non-stationary panel techniques such as cross section dependence test, second generation unit root test under cross sectional dependence, panel cointegration and Group Mean Fully Modified OLS (GM-FMOLS) estimation are applied. The results of the group mean FMOLS estimates show that aid dependence (AIDGDP), trade openness (OPEN), volatility in the price level (PRIVOL), reliance on agriculture (AGRGDP) and political stability (POLSTB) are the significant determinants of the GDP fluctuations. Thus, it is suggested that these determinants may be managed to reduce the volatility in GDP growth rate. JEL Classification: E32, F44, N15 Keywords: Determinants of GDP Fluctuations, Determinants of GDP Volatility, South Asia, Group Mean FMOLS, Panel Cointegration, Macro Panel, Business Cycle Fluctuations
Factors Explaining the Risk Attitude towards Entrepreneurship in Pakistan: An Exploratory Analysis
Authors: Mohammed Nishat  , Talha Nadeem
Published: September 2018

This study empirically identifies factors which explain the attitude of individuals towards entrepreneurship, and how attitudes toward risk influence the likelihood of a person turning entrepreneur. The variable ‗fear of failing‘ serves as a proxy variable reflecting risk aversion, as contained in the dataset compiled by the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM), through interviews of a sample of 2,007 respondents from Pakistan, in 2010. Given that the dependent variable is of binary nature, the probit model is used to empirically determine as to how various demographic, and perceptual factors influence risk aversion among the country‘s citizens, particularly in the context of starting their own businesses. The results suggest that personally knowing other entrepreneurs, who have launched a business in the past two years is the most significant variable affecting risk attitudes among Pakistanis; specifically, those who personally know entrepreneurs are more likely to have a fear of failure, with marginal effects as high as 8 percent. Meanwhile, individuals who feel that society generally approves of entrepreneurship as a career choice are around 5 percent less likely to fear failure, though this is a weak correlation. A number of other variables—which are reported in the literature to have significant correlation with risk attitudes in a global context—are not found to be correlated at traditional significance level for Pakistan. In addition, the study does not reveal systematic differences in the risk attitude of individuals hailing from urban and rural areas, or at provincial level. We suggest some preliminary implications based on the findings, and also identify a potential avenue for follow-up research. JEL Classification: L26; M13; O53 Keywords: Entrepreneurship; Emerging Economy; Risk Aversion
Fiscal Decentralisation, Provincial Economic Growth and Spillover Effects: A Spatial Panel Data Analysis
Authors: Qasim Raza  , Hafsa Hina
Published: September 2018

This study examines the spatial dependence, direct and indirect effects of fiscal decentralisation on the provincial economic growth of Pakistan. Due to spatial dependence, spatial econometric technique is applied on the augmented growth of Mankiw, et al. (1992) by incorporating the fiscal decentralisation variable in the theoretical framework. The empirical analysis is based on the spatial panel data set, which is used from 1990 to 2011 of provinces. Model is selected on basis of specific to general and general to specific approach, and decided two-way fixed effects Spatial Durbin model (SDM) is appropriate for our data. We have estimated the SDM by maximum likelihood (bias corrected and random effect) estimation technique, otherwise, if we applied OLS and ignore the spillover effect which makes our estimated parameters biased and inconsistent. Results show that revenue decentralisation has positive, while expenditure decentralisation has negative effect to provincial economic growth. Spillover effects are found to be significant in case of revenue decentralisation and insignificant in case of expenditure. Negative and insignificant spillover effect of expenditure decentralisation is due to weak institutions, lack of intra governmental competition, and absence of political vision which may increase the level of corruption and less accountability. On the basis of econometric analysis, it may be suggested that federal government should transfer the resources to provinces as determined in the 18th amendment, and it is the responsibility of provincial government to train their officials in the area of professional ethics, technical and administrative skills by different programmes. JEL Classification: C31, C33, H3, H50 Keywords: Fiscal Decentralisation, Spatial Econometrics, Revenue, Expenditure
Indebtedness and Poverty: The Case of Pakistan
Authors: Javeria Naeem  , Sadia Sherbaz
Published: September 2018

Since the advent of Neolibralism, debt has been construed as means of policy reforms to achieve stability, liberalisation and recovery from shocks. However, the other side of the picture has been either ignored or underappreciated. That is the human cost of indebtedness. Whether internal or external, indebtedness may have significant implications for the living conditions of the masses, as it leads to substantial deviation of resources towards debt management. This paper attempts to assess the impact of indebtedness on poverty for Pakistan. The impact of total, internal and external debt on poverty has been evaluated separately. Using the data from 1973 to 2013, Johansen Co-nintegration test reveals long run relationship between debt and poverty. The results remain consistent when domestic and external debt is taken separately. The long run impact of total, internal and external debt on poverty is positive. Which means that for Pakistan debt leads to increase in poverty. Further, it is evident that domestic debt has more severe poverty implications as compared to external debt. These results have two important policy implications; firstly, the overall levels of debt have to be reduced and secondly, the issue of domestic debt reduction takes priority. JEL Classification: I30, I38, F34, H36 Keywords: External Debt, Domestic Debt, Poverty, Johanson Cointegration
Impact of Credit on Education and Healthcare Spending in Rural Pakistan
Authors: Abid Hussain  , Muhammad Jehangir Khan  , Iftikhar Ahmad  , Lubna Naz
Published: September 2018

It is to access that the microcredit has a positive impact on education and healthcare spending of the borrowed households is controversial in developing countries literature or not. This study reports evidence, from Pakistan for this debate, while utilising data from PPHS- 2010 (Pakistan Panel Household Survey). Propensity score matching (PSM) has been used to investigate the impact of household credit on healthcare and education spending by the poor. In addition to matching statistically identical borrowers with non-borrowers, the method controls for household pre-treatment assets and income. These may be correlated with unobservable factors affecting credit participation as well as outcomes of interest. The estimates from binary as well as multiple ordered treatment effect show insignificant impact of borrowing on education and significant and positive impact on healthcare spending. JEL Classification: D13, C14 Keyword: Matching; Household Credit; Per-capita Income; Education and Healthcare Spending
Shorter Notices
Authors: Durr-E-Nayab
Published: September 2018

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