bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Asset Effects in Land Price Formation in Agriculture: The
Evidence from South Asia
Authors: Hirashima S.
Published: August 2018

The purpose of this paper is to examine the land market
behaviour in South Asia, taking the most technologically advanced Punjab
(both Pakistan and India) as an example, and to consider the disparity
issues in development. Land market in Punjab was given momentum when the
private proprietorship of land was established in the middle of the 19th
century. Land market behaviour in terms of the rentland price ratio or
the profitability of investment in land cannot be explained by the
conventional rent theory. Land price has never been the discounted value
of rent. We try to explain the market behaviour by incorporating asset
effects in addition to the technological effects in agricultural
production. Since the land price data are not published after
independence both in Pakistan and India, it is difficult to confirm
whether or not the observed trend of declining rent-land price ratio can
be observed after independence. However, judging from the scattered
field survey data, we could presume that the asset effects have been
positive and increasing, thereby reducing the R/P ratio much lower than
the market interest rate. The study raises questions with respect to the
direction of public investment, land tax policy, and the growing
disparity between rent receivers and rent payers.
Accelerating Agricultural Growth—Is Irrigation Institutional
Reform Necessary? (Distinguishedl Lecture)
Authors: Mellor John W.
Published: August 2018

The right to the flow of income from water is vigorously
pursued, protected, and fought over in any arid part of the world.
Pakistan is of course no exception. Reform of irrigation institutions
necessarily changes the rights to water, whether it be those of farmers,
government, or government functionaries. Those perceived rights may be
explicit and broadly accepted, or simply takings that are not even
considered legitimate. Nevertheless they will be fought over. Pakistan
has a long history of proposals for irrigation reform, little or none
being implemented, except as isolated pilot projects. Thus, to propose
major changes in irrigation institutions must be clearly shown to have
major benefits to justify the hard battles that must be fought and the
goodwill of those who might win those battles for reform. Proponents of
irrigation institution reform have always argued the necessity of the
reforms and the large gains to be achieved. Perhaps, however, those
arguments have not been convincing. This paper will briefly outline the
failed attempts at irrigation reform to provide an element of reality to
the discussion. It will then proceed to make the case of the urgency of
reform in a somewhat different manner to the past. Finally, current
major reform proposals will be presented. This paper approaches
justification of irrigation reform by focusing on the agricultural
growth rate. It does so because that is the critical variable
influencing poverty rates and is a significant determinant of over-all
economic growth rates. The paper decomposes growth rates and suggests a
residual effect of deterioration of the irrigation system that is large
and calls for policy and institutional reform. The data are notional,
suggesting the usefulness of the approach and paves the way for more
detailed empirical analysis and enquiry for the future.
Can Cost-effective Reallocation of Inputs Increase the Efficiency
of the Public Health System in Pakistan?
Authors: Aynulhasan M. , Pasha Hafiz A. , Rasheed Ajazm M.
Published: August 2018

Heavy investment in many developing countries in the social
sector including health is based on the premise that human capital is
vital to the growth and development of a nation. However, Pakistan's
spending on this sector has been one of the lowest in the region. In the
present environment of high budget deficits, one does not expect
substantial public funds to be forthcoming and diverted towards the
social sector in the intermediate- or medium-term future. The critical
issue facing the public sector should then be to design health policies
which must be cost-effective and efficient. This study examines these
health policy issues within the context of an optimisation framework for
public health system, forecasts future upto (2002-03) and discusses an
efficient optimal mix of health inputs, outputs, expenditures, and wage
policies under alternative scenarios. The study recommends that, first,
growth of health infrastructure building in the urban areas be slowed
down in the short-term (two to three years), and some of the resources
reallocated towards the rural sector either in terms of building new
Basic Health Units or upgrading the existing Rural Health Centres.
Second, not only attractive wage policies be formulated for health
personnel, but the status of nurses in the public health system be also
elevated by giving them higher grades. Third, for every rupee of
development expenditure incurred, Public Health Department must plan or
keep provisions for recurring outlays. All this reallocation of
resources is feasible within the projected actual budget and it will
lead to efficiency gains in the order of 8 to 10 percent for the entire
public health system.
Human Capital Investments in Pakistan: Implications of Micro
Evidence from Rural Households
Authors: Sawada Yasuyuki
Published: August 2018

A number of cross-country studies suggest that the Pakistani
aggregate human capital investments, measured by educational
performance, are low relative to other countries of similar per capita
income levels. This paper investigates the implications of micro
evidence on schooling from rural Pakistan for an understanding of the
cases of low human capital investments. The results of school-entrant
and dropout regressions using household panel data indicate that the
permanent and transitory income movements affect children’s schooling
behaviour, indicating credit market imperfections. Hence, the human
capital investments in rural Pakistan may be discouraged by poverty,
combined with incompletely insured income volatility. Moreover, our
analysis points out that there is a distinct gender difference in
education.
Political Development and Conflict Resolution in Pakistan
Authors: Wseem Mohammad
Published: August 2018

Conflicts in Pakistan emanate from a configuration of factors
relating to the state system, the unstable regional setting, and the
global system at large. The state system in Pakistan has been
characterised by problems of constitutionally underdeveloped provincial
set-ups, dysfunctionality of elections for the prevalent system
perceived by a privileged migrant leadership, a centralist authority
structure, and a domineering role of army. During the last five decades,
the state system passed through various phases of centralism, populism,
and constitutional engineering by the military-bureaucratic
establishment as well as Islamisation, largely at the expense of
provincial autonomy and a sense of participation in the business of the
state shared by all communities. Non-recognition of electoral mandate as
the final source of legitimacy led to the emergence of ethnic movements
in East Pakistan, the NWFP, Balochistan, and Sindh. The perceived
Punjabisation of the state has created feelings of ethnic hostility
among all regions other than Punjab. Social insecurities caused by rapid
social change, such as urbanisation in general and in-migration in
Karachi in particular, have fuelled ethnic hatred all around. Similarly,
the influx of refugees from neighbouring countries, along with arms and
drug trafficking, has led to new patterns of identity politics and
higher levels of political violence. The state's relative
non-performance at the local level has pushed many sectarian groups to
exit from the parliamentary framework of politics towards a blatant use
of arms. What)s needed is the creation of a third tier of government at
the district and sub-district levels. At the top of the priority list
should be a policy of decentralisation and continuity in the electoral
process to bring the recalcitrant elements into the mainstream,
de-weaponisation, and strengthening of political parties as
interest-aggregating and policy-bearing institutions.
Financial Intermediation and Growth: Theory and Some
Cross-Country Evidence
Authors: Shabir Tayyeb
Published: August 2018

Well-functioning financial markets can have a positive effect
on economic growth by facilitating savings and more efficient allocation
of capital. This paper characterises some of the recent theoretical
developments that analyse the relationship between financial
intermediation and economic growth and presents empirical estimates
based on a model of the linkage between financially intermediated
investment and growth for two separate groups of countries, developing
and advanced. Empirical estimates for both groups suggest that financial
intermediation through the efficiency of investment leads to a higher
rate of growth per capita. The relevant coefficient estimates show a
higher level of significance for the developing countries. This
financial liberalisation in the form of deregulation and establishment
and development of stock markets can be expected to lead to enhanced
economic growth.
Has Aid Helped in Pakistan?
Authors: Khan Shahrukh Rafi
Published: August 2018

This paper has a two-fold objective: first, to examine the
terms on which Pakistan receives aid and whether its debt situation is
sustainable, and second, to examine the impact of aid and debt on
economic growth. It is found that there is little encouraging that can
be said about how the terms on which Pakistan has received aid over time
have changed, and its current debt situation is not sustainable. Also
reported is the analysis done elsewhere which shows that aid has a
negative (Granger) causal impact on GDP, and aid has a robust negative
impact on economic growth after controlling for supplyside shocks. We
provide various reasons for this negative association.
Agricultural 'Crisis' in Pakistan: Some Explanations and Policy
Options (The Distinguishedl Lecture)
Authors: Khan Mahmood Hasan
Published: August 2018

This paper is about public policy and agricultural growth in
Pakistan. The author takes the position that, in a historical
perspective, public policy has been a large part of the erratic, maybe
unsustainable, growth of agriculture in Pakistan. The most important
policy issue, therefore, is to radically restructure the existing
bureaucratic, patronage-ridden, rent-seeking, and wasteful system of
institutions and services. Governments have been far too active in some
areas and far too inactive in others, affecting perversely farm
productivity and farmers' economic well-being. The flaws in public
policy reflect two important aspects of governments: (i) their
inability-reflecting both inadequate will and administrative capacity-to
implement what needs to be done and (ii) their wrong diagnosis of, hence
prescription for, the problems.
Comparing the Seed Cotton and Wheat Marketing Chains in
Sindh
Authors: Lohano Hari Ram , Smith Laurence E D , Stockbridge Mike
Published: August 2018

This paper contrasts the operation of seed cotton and wheat
marketing systems in Sindh. Analysis of marketing margins indicates that
the private sector cotton marketing chain appears to be working
efficiently, given the many adverse aspects of its socioeconomic
environment. There is evidence that higher domestic prices resulting
from alignment with world markets have been transmitted through the
marketing chain to producers, and that production has increased. In
contrast to cotton, the government continues to be heavily involved in
wheat procurement and storage, with private traders usually acting as
intermediaries between the Food Department and the grower. Despite
expensive involvement of the same private traders as in cotton, the
wheat market is characterised by bureaucratic failure and rent-seeking
behaviour, leading to stagnation of incentives and production. For
cotton, the primary recommendations are to sustain liberalisation of the
market and to support the developing beneficial model of private
competition through improvements in communications and transport
infrastructure. The practical means to improve the grading of cotton
lint and seed cotton should also be developed and promoted to provide
incentives for higher quality output. For wheat, the main
recommendations are to liberalise farmgate prices, reduce the state’s
role in procurement, and privatise government godowns. Research is
needed on how this might best be achieved, with attention to the
conditions necessary for private financing of storage activities, and to
ways of minimising price and supply fluctuations. The impact of higher
flour prices on poor consumers also needs to be addressed
Ross Mallick. Development, Ethnicity and Human Rights in South
Asia. New Delhi: Sage Publications, 1998. Hardbound. Indian Rs 425.00.
375 pages.
Authors: Malik Afia
Published: August 2018

South Asia, where almost half of the world poor live, has one
of the worst records of human rights. It is happening even in India,
which has the credit of being the most democratic of all the states in
South Asia. In the background of these violations of human rights are
the strong cultural values which have resulted in caste and class-like
divisions in society. The elite in the region, with access to power and
(scarce) resources, are so integrated within the system that they can
easily prevent any benefits and resources from reaching the
poor.
Parvez Hasan. Pakistan’s Economy at the Crossroads: Past Policies
and Present Imperatives. Karachi: Oxford University Press, 1998.
Hardbound. Price not given.
Authors: Qureshi Sarfraz Khan
Published: August 2018

The book by Parvez Hasan provides a critical review of
Pakistan’s development record during the first fifty years of its
economic history. The assessment of the economic performance is
conducted in terms of three interrelated criteria: the quantity of
growth, distributional outcome of the growth process, and the
sustainability of the past pattern of growth. The main finding that
emerges from his careful analysis of the past development experience is
that there has been a reasonably high and steady growth in Pakistan. The
cost of high growth in terms of poverty alleviation and income and
wealth inequalities has been higher than a possible counterfactual
situation if the growth process had been restructured along different
lines. The macro imbalances, which have always been large and
unsustainably mainly due to wrong policy choices made in the past, have
now put a big question-mark on the sustainability of unrestrained
pursuit of the growth objective, which itself has been in jeopardy
during the 1990s.
Norman Uphoff, Milton J. Esman and Anirudh Krishna. Reasons for
Success: Learning from Instructive Experiences in Rural Development. New
Delhi: Sage Publications, 1998. Paperback. Indian Rs 250.00. 233
pages.
Authors: Malik Afia
Published: August 2018

Given the demographic realities in the developing world, it is
not possible to solve the problems of poverty in these countries
following the neoclassical model of economic growth. Since the majority
of people are ruralites in these countries, the focus should be on rural
development directly rather than on waiting for the benefits to trickle
down to the rural poor. What is needed is to improve the quality of life
and productivity of the small-holders or landless whose livelihood is
based on natural resources which are depleting and require urgent
attention. More options should be available for the rural people in
their own area.
Shorter Notices
Authors: Qureshi Sarfraz Khan , Malik Afia
Published: August 2018

Download the PDF file
Cooperatives and Development: Lessons from the Punjab
Experience
Authors: Mustafa Khalid , Gill Zulfiqar Ahmad
Published: August 2018

Traditionally, cooperatives have been expected to serve a
broad set of sociopolitical and economic objectives ranging from
self-help and grass-root participation to welfare and distribution,
including economies of scale and social control over resource allocation
and mobilisation. However, these various objectives are not mutually
consistent. There exists substantial trade-off in the realisation of
many of these goals. It is therefore necessary to weigh their relative
importance in the felt needs and priorities of a particular community at
any given point of time if performance of cooperatives is to be
evaluated in an appropriate context. An attempt to fulfil a range of
these conflicting objectives simultaneously has eventually led to a
broad based disenchantment with the cooperative movement.
An Assessment of Poverty Studies in India with Special Reference
to Economic Reforms
Authors: Pradhan Basanta K. , Saluja M. R.
Published: August 2018

As it is well-known, the study of poverty is extremely
important on moral and philosophical and also, political grounds.
Further, evidences are available to show that poverty affects growth
adversely. We, therefore, have made an attempt to review some of the
important studies on poverty in India. The concept of poverty relates to
socially perceived deprivation with respect to basic minimum needs. In
the Indian context, poverty is measured in terms of a specified
normative poverty line reflecting the minimum living standard of the
people. Defining a poverty line is, therefore, the first step in
estimating poverty. According to the Expert Group (1993), a poverty
line, dividing the poor from the non-poor, is used by putting a price on
the minimum required consumption levels of food, clothing, shelter, fuel
and health care, etc. In equal practice however, the poverty lines are
normative only in terms of calorie requirements of the diet.
Fiscal Policies of Pakistan and Kazmi's Hypothesis
Authors: Kazmi Aqdas Ali
Published: August 2018

Pakistan has maintained an average GDP growth rate of about
5.5 percent during the period 1981-98. An analysis of the growth
experience of Pakistan, however, indicates that some basic macroeconomic
imbalances have been built in the economy during this period, which have
serious implications for long-term sustainability of the economic growth
of the country. The growth performance of Pakistan has synchronised with
declining rate of domestic savings, erratic and inconsistent variations
in the national savings ratios, low level of domestic investment and
excessive dependence on the external resource inflow (current account
deficit) to finance the gap between national savings and the level of
gross investment. In other words, Saving-Investment and Import-Export
Gaps in the economy have widened during this period. These macroeconomic
imbalances have been highlighted from time to time in numerous studies
such as Burld (1996, 1998); Hasan (1998); Hussain (1999); Kazmi (1991,
1994, 1998); Papanek (1996) and Qureshi (1989).
Pakistan's Edible Oil Needs and Prospects for
Self-sufficiency
Authors: Chaudhry M. Ghaffar , Mahmood Amir , Chaudhry Ghulam Mustafa
Published: August 2018

In today's world economy, financial crises have been quite
rampant and have been a source of greater misery, deprivation and
poverty among a growing number of countries [Wolfensehn (1998)]. Some of
the major causes of this state of affairs especially in Pakistan lie in
rising debt servicing liabilities, receding donor assistance and growing
saving-investment and import-export gaps [UN (1997)]. To the extent that
the above situation can be ameliorated considerably by emphasis on
domestic production especially in agriculture, this paper looks at
possibilities of increasing the production of oil-crops for eliminating
edible oil imports. It must be noted that self-reliance in edible oil is
not important in its own right but would also be consistent with more
judicious use of domestic resources, greater food security, enhanced
welfare of consumers and producers and above all saving of scarce
foreign exchange resources [Goldman (1975) and Mellor and Johnston
(1984)]. In line with the above, the paper has the following outline.
Section 2 reviews edible oil situation in the country. The factors
underlying the growing edible oil deficit are highlighted in Section 3.
In Section 4 discussion is centred on policy alternatives for attainment
of self-sufficiency in edible oils through local production. The final
Section 5 summarises the conclusions of the paper.
Democracy in Pakistan: Value Change and Challenges of Institution
Building
Authors: Shafqat Saeed
Published: August 2018

Democracy as a system of governance and interest
representation demands respect for dissent and opposition. It recognises
the principle of majority rule and guarantees protection of minorities.
Democracy also builds faith in electoral contestation to gain public
office and gives legitimacy to political parties as primary instruments
for acquisition and transfer of power from one set of individuals to
another. Unfortunately, despite the significance of the above elements,
no serious studies have been undertaken on Pakistan’s experimentation
with democracy. Given a history of weak party system and prolonged
military rule, most of the studies focus on the military, political
parties, constitutional history, or in a descriptive way, attribute the
failure of democracy to the inadequacies of the politicians [Ahmed
(1987); Rizvi (1987); Callard (1957) and Afzal (1976)]. It is only
recently that some theoretically meaningful and rigorous empirical
writings have appeared on elections, procedures and practices of
electoral contestation and on problems of transition from authoritarian
regimes towards democracy [Waseem (1989); Wilder (1995); Talyor (1992);
Rais (1997) and Shafqat (1997)].
The Debt of the Nation
Authors: Tahir Pervez
Published: August 2018

The debt of the nation comprises two parts, the external debt
and the internal debt. After rapidly accumulating arrears of external
debt in the post-sanctions period, Pakistan has had to seek
re-scheduling of her external debt as part of a financing and reform
package negotiated with the IMF. While re-scheduling has not been sought
for the first time, the rising burden of this debt has generated a
serious debate for the first time. In the heat of this debate, the
heavier burden of the costlier internal debt has been nearly ignored.
Although this paper takes account of the totality of the debt towards
the end, its main focus is on the problem of external debt for reasons
not only of its immediacy but the prospects of forced self-reliance
raised by the financial and economic fall-out of the nuclear explosions
of May 1998. Section II looks for the data sources and discovers that
there are as many sizes of the debt as there are sources. In its latest
report, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) characterises the economy as
“highly indebted” in terms of its external debt, while the latest
Economic Survey (ES) does not consider the external debt as large as it
appears. Section III analyses these claims in terms of the
internationally recognised debt burden indicators. In Section IV,
attention is devoted to debt sustainability criteria. Section V of the
paper examines the question as to how debt, which also shows access to
capital required for economic growth, was allowed to become a burden
over time. The last Section presents main conclusions and suggests an
agenda for action.
A Simulation Analysis of the Debt Problem in Pakistan
Authors: Ahmad Eatzaz , Ahmed Ayaz
Published: August 2018

The current debt situation in Pakistan and the resulting
financial crisis require serious attempts to find a sustainable
indigenous solution. As such it is essential to search ways and means to
reduce dependence on external borrowing over medium to long run.1
External debt is usually created to sustain a growth rate of the
economy, which is otherwise not feasible with the given state of
domestic resources, technology, consumption propensity and economic
management practices. However, the success of economic growth financed
by external borrowing depends on two factors, namely the domestic saving
rate and productivity. A country with lower saving rate needs to borrow
more to finance a given rate of economic growth. In Pakistan the flow of
external loans is likely to have adversely affected the compulsion for
savings. For example, no serious attempts have been made to improve tax
collection or to control non-development government expenditure unless
forced by the donor agencies. The adverse effect of borrowing on savings
has recently been observed in [Ali et al. (1997)]. The evidence also
does not support the proposition that higher rate of economic growth
results in higher saving rate [see Ali et al. (1997)]. The saving rate
in the private sector of Pakistan has remained low because of low real
interest rates and the lack of legitimate and safe investment
opportunities. Furthermore the poor and middle-income classes have been
burdened with high inflation tax and no serious efforts have been made
to tax the rich. Saving rate in the government sector has been
deteriorating due to exponential growth in the size of this sector and
extraordinarily low productivity. Government has ventured in the
territories where it had no business in the first place.
Globalisation, Technology, and Asian Economic Growth
Authors: Naseem S.M.
Published: August 2018

Although globalisation is by no means a recent phenomenon,1
its new wave has raised a number of questions—both about its supposed
benefits and its alleged adverse consequences. Rather than exploring the
wider ramifications of globalisation, this paper will confine its
purview to the question of technology development and dissemination in
the context of globalisation as it has affected the development of Asian
economies in the last few decades. In particular, the paper will focus
on the somewhat dazzling performance of the East Asian economies in the
last three decades and their equally sharp and unforeseen downturn in
the past two years, which has raised serious doubts first about the
replicability and later about the robustness of the East Asian
development experience. Although the palpable cause of the current East
Asian crisis has generally been situated in the increasing complexity
and fragility of the global financial system, many prescient
international economists had attributed it to the weakness of the
technological underpinnings of East Asian growth [Krugman (1994)]. The
East Asian crisis has also raised a lively controversy concerning the
impact and desirability of selective micro-economic interventions by
national governments, which have often been oversimplified under the
rubric of ‘crony capitalism’. While the debate on which causes
contributed most to the sudden down-turn in the growth of the East Asian
economies remains inconclusive, there seems considerable validity in the
conjecture that their future growth prospects will depend on their
ability not only to master current technologies, but also to
significantly further their technological prowess through R and D and
scientific achievement. Although the immediate trigger of the present
crisis in East Asia may have been the turmoil in their financial
markets, the underlying problems in the real economy, which have so far
received insufficient attention, stem largely from their incommensurate
technological development.
WTO and Pakistan: Opportunities and Policy Challenges
Authors: Mahmood Zafar
Published: August 2018

From its inception the GATT had guided international trade
most successfully until the early 1970s. However, afterwards the
developed countries (DCs) increasingly recurred to new forms of trade
restrictions not covered by the GATT rules. Ironically, these “grey
measures” were mostly against the less developed countries (LDCs). These
measures constrained international trade exactly at the time when the
LDCs started penetrating developed markets. One of the main objectives
of the Uruguay Round (UR) accord was to restrict the surge of
protectionism. The accord was the most ambitious and detailed trade
accord of all the GATT rounds. It established the World Trade
Organisation (WTO). Before the UR accord the discrimination in textiles,
clothing and agriculture was severe because tariffs and non-tariff
barriers (NTBs) were employed in such a way that the overall effect of
protection accumulated. The Round had agreed upon the harmonisation and
reduction of tariffs, and elimination of NTBs (in stages) and thus it is
expected that the effective protection will diminish in the DCs. The new
accord has ensured multilateral rules for these sectors. All members
expected that protection would be eventually lower with full
implementation of the accord. In order to protect the interest of
different groups the WTO has now lay down nondiscriminatory trading
rules for services and trade-related aspects of intellectual property
rights (TRIPs), thus covering all major fields of international trade
policy.
Gender Dimensions of Demographic Change in Pakistan
Authors: Mahmood Naushin , Nayab Durr-e-
Published: August 2018

The achieving of equality and equity between men and women in
different spheres of life is essential for the attainment of sustainable
development goals. In this context, the need for enhancement of women’s
participation in national development programmes and their full
integration into the development process has been widely recognised in
various global and regional forums. More recently, the Programme of
Action adopted by the International Conference on Population and
Development at Cairo in 1994 reaffirmed and elaborated the role of women
in national development, and endorsed a new strategy that emphasises
“gender equality, equity and empowerment of women”. In this context, the
Programme of Action recommends that countries should act to empower
women and should take steps to eliminate inequalities between men and
women by providing them with more choices through expanded access to
education and health services, skill development and employment, and
eliminating all practices that discriminate against women [United
Nations (1995)].
Personal Earnings Inequality in Pakistan: Findings from the HIES
1993-94
Authors: Nasir Zafar Mueen , Mahmood Riaz
Published: August 2018

The earnings of workers play important role in the well-beings
of households’ as they account for the largest proportion of total
household income. If earnings of workers are distributed unevenly, they
contribute significantly to the inequality in the household earnings. It
may not be a cause of serious concern if income inequality grows and
income of the workers also grows throughout the population and the
position of the bottom segment improves. It is however serious when gap
between rich and poor increases by worsening the position of poor. To
reduce the household income inequality it is therefore important to
focus on the distribution of personal earnings and frame a policy. There
are many cause of inequality in personal earnings. As workers income
rises at varying rates, it may reflect the decision of household of
their investment in human capital and decisions to acquire skills. The
factors like education, occupation, gender, regional location, sector of
employment, and non-market forces such as discrimination may also play a
significant role in the distribution of earnings.
IPPs: The Real Issues
Authors: Siddiqui Anjum
Published: August 2018

Since May 1998, an important issue facing Pakistan
policy-makers has been whether independent power producers (IPPs)
produce expensive electricity. It is contended that IPPs’ expensive
power has rendered the state utility, Water and Power Development
Authority (WAPDA), bankrupt. It is also alleged that IPPs indulged in
corruption and colluded with WAPDA officials to get their signatures on
contracts which allowed procurement of expensive power by WAPDA and
which it can ill afford now. This paper shifts through the rhetoric
surrounding IPPs and focuses on the central issue of whether IPPs
produce expensive power. If it can be established that IPPs produce
cheaper power than WAPDA, then the second part of the argument that
WAPDA became financially weak because of IPPs’ expensive power is
destroyed. The alleged corruption issues are not discussed as they are
beyond the scope of the paper. Section 1 provides a background to the
establishment of the private power sector in Pakistan. Section 2
discusses various project risks faced by shareholders and lenders.
Section 3 outlines the components of the electricity tariff. Section 4
traces the reasons for increase in electricity tariffs since 1994 when
the Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) were signed. Section 5 shows the
comparative costs of production of IPPs and WAPDA.
Households’ Non-leisure Time Allocation for Children and
Determinants of Child Labour in Punjab, Pakistan
Authors: Burki Abid A. , Fasih Tazeen
Published: August 2018

Pakistan is one of those countries in Asia where incidence of
child labour is very high. Children should not have to work, but the
estimates of the Child Labour Survey 1996 show that there are 3.3
million working children between the ages of 5-14 years in Pakistan. Due
to political, social and economic pressures, developing countries like
Pakistan tend to react by enacting legislation which bans child labour.
Countries which are now developed did the same thing when they
successfully completed their industrialisation. Child labour is often
harmful for the children, but there are situations where the
alternatives to child labour may offer only deeper poverty both for the
children and their families. Therefore, mishandling of this issue can
make matters from bad to worse, for example, if legislation pushes
children into even worse situations. The Government of Pakistan has
enacted the Employment of Children Act of 1991 which has banned
employment of children below the age of 14 years and their employment is
now a cognisable offence under the Act punishable by imprisonment and
fine.1 Such interventions can lead to reductions in the already limited
choices available to the child. For example, this legislation may mean
that the child can neither work nor go to school. To put it differently,
this ban does not address market failures, for example, in the education
market.
Pakistan and the World Economy (Distinguished Lecture)
Authors: Williamson John
Published: August 2018

This paper aims to explore Pakistan's geo-economic options in
the difficult situation that confronts following the easing of
sanctions, which added acute balance of payments pressures to its
existing ailments of near-stagnant exports, a lower growth trend than in
preceding decades, an unattractive climate for foreign investment, and
weak social indicators. The first question explored is whether Pakistan
has any opportunity of participating in a regional trade grouping. It is
argued that the only conceivable way of achieving this would involve the
development of SAARC, which would demand a profound transformation of
Indo-Pakistani relations (though one no more profound than that realised
in Franco-German relations since the founding of what is now known as
the European Union). One benefit of achieving deep integration through
SAARC is that this would create the possibility of Pakistan developing a
serious engineering industry far more rapidly than will otherwise
happen. In the absence of deep integration in SAARC, it is argued that
Pakistan's best option would be a policy close to unilateral free trade,
so as to place it in a position to take advantage of whatever the next
generation of labour-intensive activities demanded by the world economy
proves to be. Under either of those scenarios, the reestablishment of a
dynamic industrial sector will require the maintenance of a competitive
exchange rate, something that, it is argued, is not necessarily
guaranteed by floating. The paper also discusses the role of inward
direct investment in contributing to the export success of East Asia,
and considers whether the expatriate Pakistani community might be
capable of playing a role comparable to that played by the overseas
Chinese in nurturing the Chinese export expansion of the last two
decades. It is suggested that such a hope was set back by the
extra-legal attempt to renegotiate power tariffs with the independent
power producers in the course of 1998, and that Pakistan needs to become
a country of laws rather than discretion if foreign investors, including
expatriate Pakistanis, are ever to find the country an attractive export
platform. While more inward direct investment would almost certainly be
beneficial, the same is not true for inward financial investment, where
too large an inflow can easily expose a country to very significant
risks, as the East Asian crisis showed. In the long run, Pakistan needs
to be prepared to repel excessive capital inflows if they materialise;
but its immediate problem is still balance of payments pressure, and
this seems to demand targeting a major and sustained improvement in the
current account over the next several years.
Economic Development: Pakistan's Policy Choices for the 21st
Century (Presidential Remarks)
Authors: Qureshi Sarfraz Khan
Published: August 2018

It is an honour for me as President of the Pakistan Society of
Development Economists to welcome you to the 14th Annual General Meeting
and Conference of th~ Society. As we prepare to enter the new
millennium, we find ourselves at a crucial moment in history. It is time
to take stock of our past achievements and to assess the new challenges.
To deal with the future would require not only thorough knowledge of the
evolving nature of development thinking but also a good sense of the
policy choices available to a country in its national, international and
regional position. What are the main challenges that require our urgent
attention? A few words are in order at the very outset about Pakistan's
current difficult economic situation. The slow-down in export expansion,
capital inflows and foreign direct investment was an expected
consequence of the imposition of sanctions. The pessimistic assessment
of Pakistan's prospects is based largely on the recent negative trends
of these economic parameters. The optimists are of the view that
Pakistan has survived the imposition of sanctions rather well. Economic
growth has remained positive and inflation has been kept under
reasonable control. The optimists further maintain that Pakistan's
current economic situation is no worse than that of the East Asian
countries when. they started their economic climb and engineered major
institutional and policy changes. Lessons from the initial years of the
East Asian miracle clearly show that development is decidedly possible
no matter what adverse initial conditions obtain in any developing
country. Sustained, rapid and equitable growth is possible through the
implementation of wide-ranging social and economic reforms. Lessons
from'the recentEast Asian Crises are also before us-guiding us on what
not to do and how best to protect ourselves in these rapidly changing
times.
Pradip N. Khandwalla. Revitalising the State: A Menu ofOptions. New Delhi: Sage Publications, 1999. Indian Rs 250.00.304 pages.
Authors: Mir Annice Mahmood
Published: August 2018

In recent years discussions about the role of the state have been intense. Some argue in favour of an increased role of the state in the life of the people; others argue for a lesser and diminished role. Whatever the arguments, it is generally felt that the role of the state has been de-emphasised in recent years thereby making it unable to sustain the economic well-being of the people. This book, by presenting a number of suggestions, is an attempt to reinvigorate the state to make it more in tune with the requirements of the people. Using history as a guide, the author identifies four main models of the state that have developed in the twentieth century. These can be categorised as (i) the interventionist welfare state; (ii) the developmental state; (iii) the 'reinvented' entrepreneurial state, and (iv) the World Bank model of the humane market-friendly state. After categorising these different types of states he proceeds to analyse the reasons behind the decay of the state. These include their growing size and complexity, corruption, poor governance, weak political structures etc. to mention a few. At the same time, he also examines same success stories from the Commonwealth and East Asian countries. These include Australia, New Zealand, and Singapore to name a few. From these success stories the author puts forward what, in his view, are steps aimed at revitalising the state, particularly in developing countries.
The Political Economy of Bangladesh's Large and Growing Trade Deficits with India
Authors: Akhtar Hossain
Published: August 2018

After remaining low throughout the 1970s and 1980s, Bangladesh's trade deficits (as percent of GDP) with India have been rising sharply since 1993. The size of its illegal trade deficits with India is also large and perceived to be rising since the early 1990s. Thus, instead of interdependence between two trading neighbours at the same stage of development, the Bangladesh-India trade relations suggest an absolute dependence of Bangladesh on India. The debate that has now generated in Bangladesh from such a onesided trade flow has two polar themes. At one extreme are those commentators who consider Bangladesh's large and growing trade deficits with India as a "natural and positive development" on the grounds that India is believed to be at a higher stage of development and to have gained technological maturity in the production of those goods that Bangladesh imports from India. The alternative view is that Bangladesh's large and growing trade deficits are a recent phenomenon and have nothing to do with India's technological maturity or prowess. As an explanation, such deficits are c9nsidered to be the result both of India's deep devaluation policy and tariff and non-t~ff barriers to Bangladesh's exports to its markets. This paper examines the disaggregated structure of trade, as well as the revealed comparative advantage of Bangladesh and India and finds no support for the thesis of Bangladesh's technological imports from India on grounds of their maturity. It then examines the sensitivity of trade flows between the two countries to exchange rates and the possible role of trade liberalisation in generating trade deficits within the framework of intra-industry trade models for differentiated products. The available evidence suggests that through subsidies, interventions and deep devaluation policy, India has artificially created a comparative advantage over Bangladesh in differentiaied products. India has also managed to keep its markets closed for Bangladesh's products despite trade negotiations, between the governments. This gives credence to the suggestion that Bangladesh's trade with India is neither fair nor competitive. Finally, the paper considers the political economy of the large and growing trade imbalances between them before drawing policy conclusions.
Privatisation of Electric Power Sector in Pakistan: Some Important Issues
Authors: Abdul Ghafoor  , John Weiss
Published: August 2018

The electric power sector in Pakistan is growing faster (II percent) than the average growth rate of other developing countries (10 percent). However, the demand in Pakistan is growing even faster than the supply and therefore power shortage has become a serious problem. The problem is compounded by inefficiency of electric power sector. Moreover there is underpril:ing. subsidising, overstaffing and inadequate maintenance. Like many other developing countries, Pakistan has also opted for "privatisation" in the form of transfer of ownership as the first best solution. However, a wide range of literature argues that such type of privatisation in the case of electric power may not lead to miracles. The present a11icle attempts to analyse the past inefficiency of the electric power sector in Pakistan and performs a diagnostic analysis to identify sources and causes of inefficiencies. This analysis does not necessarily support a strict privatisation based reform. The article further discusses the salient feature of privatisation of electric power sector in Pakistan' and some important issu,es related to its feasibility. It is noted that the privatisation of electric power sector in Pakistan, as pursued now, may not resolve the problems of this sector. It may ease short-run financial constraints but it may also create a number of long-term problems such as inappropriate planning, greater energy dependence and insecurity. It is also noted that current problems stem primarily from institutional and organisational constraints faced by public sector power enterprises. The key issue may not be a choice between public or private ownership but to determine an appropriate reform package based on either public/private or a mixed ownership structure, that encourages greater private involvement and functions well in the specific environment of Pakistan.
Inefficiencies in Public Electricity Provision and Impacts on Firms in Karachi’s Manufacturing Sector
Authors: Nausheen H. Anwar
Published: August 2018

The private costs of electricity supply failures are substantial and inimical to industrial productivity. Using results from a small sample survey of manufacturing firms in Karachi, the study documented the causes, extent and incidence of the failures, identified and classified the firms’ private responses, and estimated the capital share of internally produced power and the associated costs. The results are reported here to engender discussion for developing a policy model of infrastructure provision suited to a developing country like Pakistan. The most encouraging options are those that allow for cooperative provision amongst firms with concurrent reforms in the regulatory and institutional environments. An optimal policy will allow inter-firm trading of electricity making the power market competitive. Those firms that already have extensive private generating capacity due to weak public supply will realise scale economies by selling electric power to lower the costs of private provision. Competition in electricity supply implies that industrial users will find attractive substitutes in the private sector. This will lead to a reduction in the demand on public service, already limited in quantity and quality in key urban-industrial locations like Karachi.
Accommodating Purdah to the Workplace: Gender Relations in the Office Sector in Pakistan
Authors: Jasmin Mirza
Published: August 2018

Based on a qualitative survey of female office workers conducted in Lahore in 1996-97, this article examines the increasing market integration of women, particularly from the lower middle classes, into secretarial and technical occupations in the office sector in urban Pakistan. The study shows that gender images and gender relations inherent in the social order of Pakistani society—particularly the absence of socially sanctioned modes of communication between the sexes, a strong sexualisation of gender relations outside the kinship system, and the incessant harassment of women in the public sphere—surface inside the offices. Female office workers use many strategies, derived from their own life world, to maneuver in the office sector, to appropriate public (male) space, and to accommodate the purdah system to the office environment. By “creating social distance”, “developing socially obligatory relationships”, “integrating male colleagues into a fictive kinship system”, and “creating women’s spaces” they are able to establish themselves in a traditional male field of employment, namely, the office sector.