The 2022 escalation of the military and political situation around Taiwan: causes and prospects for further evolution
Authors: Kashin V. 
Published: December 2022

New escalation of the Taiwan issue is a complex process, shaped by long-term trends in both the island’s internal politics and in the Sino-U.S. relations after 2017. The internal trends in Taiwan are making the very possibility of “peaceful reunification” with mainland China highly questionable for the foreseeable future. Each new electoral cycle in Taiwan was associated with a slide of the local politics towards separatism. Concurrently, the bipartisan anti-China consensus in the U.S. politics has resulted in the changing paradigm of the U.S. cooperation with Taipei and in dramatically intensified U.S.-Taiwan military and political cooperation. China, on the one hand, and Taiwan and the United States, on the other, are finding themselves in an escalation spiral, intensifying their military activities and toughening rhetoric. Each side attempts to reinforce its red lines, which, in turn, is seen as evidence of aggressive plans by its opponents. All sides are engaged in practical preparation for a potential military conflict in the Taiwan Strait. A devastating local war is quite probable within the next several years. &#21488;&#28286;2022&#24180;&#20891;&#20107;&#25919;&#27835;&#23616;&#21183;&#30340;&#24694;&#21270;&#65306;&#21407;&#22240;&#21644;&#21069;&#26223; &#21488;&#28286;&#38382;&#39064;&#30340;&#26032;&#21319;&#32423;&#26159;&#19968;&#20010;&#22797;&#26434;&#30340;&#36807;&#31243;&#12290; &#36825;&#20010;&#36807;&#31243;&#21463;&#21040;2017&#24180;&#21518;&#21488;&#28286;&#20869;&#25919;&#27835;&#21644;&#20013;&#32654;&#20851;&#31995;&#38271;&#26399;&#36235;&#21183;&#30340;&#24433;&#21709;&#12290; &#22312;&#21487;&#39044;&#35265;&#30340;&#26410;&#26469;&#65292;&#21488;&#28286;&#19982;&#22823;&#38470;&#21644;&#24179;&#32479;&#19968;&#30340;&#21487;&#33021;&#24615;&#38750;&#24120;&#20540;&#24471;&#24576;&#30097;&#12290; &#21488;&#28286;&#27599;&#19968;&#20010;&#26032;&#30340;&#36873;&#20030;&#21608;&#26399;&#36880;&#28176;&#36208;&#21521;&#20998;&#35010;&#12290; &#19982;&#27492;&#21516;&#26102;&#65292;&#32654;&#22269;&#25919;&#22363;&#30340;&#20004;&#20826;&#21453;&#21326;&#20849;&#35782;&#23548;&#33268;&#32654;&#21488;&#21512;&#20316;&#33539;&#24335;&#21457;&#29983;&#21464;&#21270;&#65292;&#32654;&#21488;&#20891;&#20107;&#25919;&#27835;&#21512;&#20316;&#24613;&#21095;&#21152;&#24378;&#12290; &#20013;&#22269; &#65292; &#21488;&#28286;&#21644;&#32654;&#22269;&#21457;&#29616;&#33258;&#24049;&#22788;&#20110;&#21319;&#32423;&#34746;&#26059;&#20013;&#65292;&#20182;&#20204;&#21152;&#24378;&#20102;&#20891;&#20107;&#27963;&#21160;&#24182;&#21152;&#24378;&#20102;&#20462;&#36766;&#12290; &#27599;&#19968;&#26041;&#37117;&#35797;&#22270;&#21152;&#24378;&#20854;&#32418;&#32447;&#65292;&#32780;&#36825;&#21453;&#36807;&#26469;&#21448;&#34987;&#23545;&#25163;&#35270;&#20026;&#20405;&#30053;&#24615;&#35745;&#21010;&#30340;&#35777;&#25454;&#12290; &#21508;&#26041;&#37117;&#22312;&#20026;&#21488;&#28023;&#21487;&#33021;&#21457;&#29983;&#30340;&#20891;&#20107;&#20914;&#31361;&#20570;&#23454;&#38469;&#20934;&#22791;&#12290; &#26410;&#26469;&#20960;&#24180;&#24456;&#21487;&#33021;&#21457;&#29983;&#19968;&#22330;&#27585;&#28781;&#24615;&#30340;&#23616;&#37096;&#25112;&#20105;.