bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A demonstration of the effect of seasonal migration on fertility
Authors: Massey Douglas S. , Mullan Brendan P.
Published: March 2007

Fertility estimates were calculated using own children data from the Mexican migrant town of Guadalupe, Michoacan. In this town, 75 percent of families have a member working in the United States, and wives are often regularly separated from their migrant husbands. Simulations by Menken (1979) and Bongaarts and Potter (1979) suggest that fertility among these women should be depressed. Our results confirmed this hypothesis, showing that the seasonal absence of migrant husbands disrupted both the level and timing of fertility. However, the effect was greater for legal than for illegal migrants, a pattern that stemmed from social factors as well as physical separation. A logistic regression analysis showed that reductions in birth probabilities are greater the longer a couple is separated, and that these reductions are in the range expected from prior simulations.
Census-derived estimates of fertility by duration since first marriage in the Republic of Korea
Authors: Retherford Robert D. , Cho Lee-Jay , Kim Nam-Il
Published: March 2007

This paper estimates ever-married birth rates by age and duration since first marriage and ever-married total fertility rates for the Republic of Korea, derived by applying an extension of the own-children method of fertility estimation to the 1975 and 1980 censuses. Since each census provides annual estimates for the 15-year period previous to enumeration, there is a ten-year period of overlapping estimates that facilitates checks for consistency and accuracy. Comparisons are also made with estimates derived from the 1974 Korea National Fertility Survey, which was part of the World Fertility Survey. The method works well, except in its application to the 1975 Census where the evidence suggests considerable misreporting of age at first marriage because of the way the question was asked and coded. Results confirm that ever-married fertility fell substantially in Korea between 1961 and 1980, with a temporary resurgence in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Ever-married fertility rose at younger ages and shorter durations and fell at older ages and longer durations. Ever-married fertility differentials by urban-rural residence and by education were usually in the expected direction, with urban fertility generally lower than rural fertility and the fertility of those with more education usually lower than the fertility of those with less education. Differential ever-married fertility by urban-rural residence and education declined over the estimation period.
What are the determinants of delayed childbearing and permanent childlessness in the United States?
Authors: Bloom David E. , Trussell James
Published: March 2007

This paper presents estimates of delayed childbearing and permanent childlessness in the United States and the determinants of those phenomena. The estimates are derived by fitting the Coale-McNeil marriage model to survey data on age at first birth and by letting the parameters of the model depend on covariates. Substantively, the results provide evidence that the low first birth fertility rates experienced in the 1970s were due to both delayed childbearing and to increasing levels of permanent childlessness. The results also indicate that (a) delayed childbearing is less prevalent among black women than among nonblack women; (b) education is an important determinant of delayed childbearing whose influence on this phenomenon seems to be increasing across cohorts; (c) education is positively associated with heterogeneity among women in their age at first birth; (d) the dispersion of age at first birth is increasing across cohorts; (e) race has an insignificant effect on childlessness; and (f) education is positively associated with childlessness, with the effect of education increasing and reaching strikingly high levels for the most recent cohorts.
City differences in racial occupational differentiation: A note on the use of odds ratios
Authors: Fossett Mark A.
Published: March 2007

This note considers whether city differences in racial occupational distribution are best investigated using measures of nominal differentiation or measures of inequality, and argues that measures of inequality are better suited for testing the prevailing theories of race differences in occupation distribution. It also defends the Index of Net Difference and the Index of Dissimilarity (and other measures of inequality used in previous research) from the criticism that they are flawed because they are sensitive to city differences in occupational structure. Additionally, it explores a new approach for investigating city differences in occupational inequality within the log-linear framework. The logical and empirical arguments offered support the conclusions that racial occupation differences reflect racial stratification, and that variation in racial occupation differences across cities is best understood as the product of city differences in the severity of racial stratification. Thus, future research in this area should continue to focus on measures of inequality rather than measures of nominal differentiation until there are sound theoretical and empirical reasons for conceptualizing race differences in occupational distribution in terms of nominal differentiation.
Evaluating the demographic impact of societal events through intervention analysis: The brown vs. Board of Education decision
Authors: Hogan Timothy D.
Published: March 2007

Using intervention analysis—a time-series technique gaining increasing use for analyzing the impacts of policy decisions/historic events—this paper reexamines the hypothesis offered by Rindfuss et al., that one consequence of the Brown vs. Board of Education decision in 1954 was a temporary decline in childbearing by white southerners. With data from the 11 former Confederate states, alternative Box-Jenkins/intervention models were estimated to identify/quantify such a decline, but no statistical evidence of a temporary shift in southern white fertility could be found.
Change in worker/nonworker ratios for women
Authors: Duncan Beverly
Published: March 2007

Effects of age, birth year, and observation year on work behavior are estimated by minimum logit chi-square regression, using data from Current Population Surveys. Most of the observation-year effect is captured by indicators of the business cycle. Further, a model which permits the cycle effects to vary by age is preferred over any additive model. The ratio for young women is most depressed relative to that for older women when times are “good.”
Residential segregation of Spanish Americans in United States Urbanized Areas
Authors: Massey Douglas S.
Published: March 2007

Residential segregation among Spanish Americans, whites and blacks is measured in the 29 largest U.S. urbanized areas. Results show that Spanish Americans are much less segregated from whites than are blacks and are less concentrated within central cities. Spanish-white segregation also tends to be much lower in suburbs than in central cities, while black-white segregation is maintained at a high level in both areas. Segregation of Spanish Americans from whites is found to decline with generations spent in the United States. Finally, the relative proportion of Spanish who live in a central city and the relative number of Spanish who are foreign stock, are both highly related, across urbanized areas, to variations in the level of Spanish-white segregation.
A time series approach to forecasting Australian total live-births
Authors: McDonald John
Published: March 2007

The relationship between classical demographic deterministic forecasting models, stochastic structural econometric models and time series models is discussed. Final equation autoregressive moving average (ARMA) models for Australian total live-births are constructed. Particular attention is given to the problem of transforming the time series to stationarity (and Gaussianity) and the properties of the forecasts are analyzed. Final form transfer function models linking births to females in the reproductive age groups are also constructed and a comparison of actual forecast performance using the various models is made. Long-run future forecasts are generated and compared with available projections based on the deterministic cohort model after which some policy implications of the analysis are considered.
Family Size and the Quality of Children
Authors: Blake Judith
Published: March 2007

If couples decide to have fewer children in order to achieve higher “quality” offspring, are they correct in assuming that the quality of children bears an important and inverse relation to family size? If they are correct, how does number of children operate to affect individual quality? This research (using U.S. whites primarily) takes educational attainment (among adults) and college plans (among youngsters) as the principal indicators of quality, but also directs some attention to measures of intelligence. The analysis supports the “dilution model” (on average, the more children the lower the quality of each child) and indicates that only children do not suffer from lack of siblings, and that other last-borns are not handicapped by a “teaching deficit.” Number of siblings (relative to other background variables) is found to have an important detrimental impact on child quality—an impact compounded by the fact that, when couples are at a stage in life to make family-size decisions, most background factors (however important to the quality of their children) are no longer readily manipulable. A special path analysis of college plans among boys uses a modification of Sewell’s Wisconsin Model as its base. The results show that number of siblings is a negative influence on intervening variables affecting college plans. In general, the research documents the unfavorable consequences for individual siblings of high fertility, even in a country that is (at least for whites) as socially, economically, and politically advantaged as the United States.
Social Structure and U.S. Inter-State Fertility Differentials in 1900
Authors: Guest Avery M.
Published: March 2007

This paper investigates the importance of agricultural land shortages versus modernization of the society in influencing inter-state differentials in fertility in 1900, when the United States was in midtransition. Urbanization and manufacturing characteristics of states were the strongest correlates of variations in the index of total fertility because urban-industrialism depressed both the probability of marriage and marital fertility. Other modern characteristics of American states were also important in understanding variations in marital fertility. Low labor force employment of children and farm mechanization, integrally related characteristics, seemed to depress levels of marital fertility in many parts of the United States, independent of the urban-industrial system. Agricultural land opportunity had little overall effect on marital fertility; however, it was quite important in understanding variations in patterns of marriage.
A Time Series of Instrumental Fertility Variables
Authors: Ryder N. B.
Published: March 2007

Temporal variations in conventional fertility measures reflect the operation of instrumental variables: quantitative and temporal intentions; success in achieving intentions; and reproductive conditions. A set of such variables is described, using data from the 1975 National Fertility Study. There was a large decline in the number of intended conceptions, a recent large rise in the extent of their delay, a very large decline in rates of failure to delay or terminate fertility, and a very large recent rise in sterilization. But one problem proved important and intractable: When the data source is a cross-sectional survey, the length of open interval is inherently different for real and for synthetic cohorts, it is strongly related to reproductive intention, and that affects the classification of exposure to risk in the open interval.
Effects of the Timing of Marriage and First Birth of the Spacing of Subsequent Births
Authors: Marini Margaret Mooney , Hodsdon Peter J.
Published: March 2007

Analyzing data from a fifteen-year follow-up survey of high school students originally surveyed in 1957–58 and resurveyed in 1973–74, this paper examines the effects of the timing of marriage and first birth on subsequent child spacing, holding constant the effects of other variables that may be sources of spuriousness. The results suggest that age at first marriage has a causal effect on the occurrence of a short first birth interval and that age at first marriage and premarital pregnancy interact in their effect on the occurrence of a short second birth interval. Age at first marriage has no causal effect on the spacing of the second birth for those whose first child was maritally conceived. The spacing of the first birth, however, appears to have a causal effect on the spacing of the second.
Antecedents to Contraceptive Innovation: Evidence from Rural Northern Thailand
Authors: Hogan Dennis P. , Frenzen Paul D.
Published: March 2007

A number of different causal mechanisms have been proposed to explain the onset of fertility declines in populations with previously uncontrolled fertility, but they have never been adequately tested. The present study identifies and tests five antecedents to family limitation practices in a sample of 755 currently married couples resident in rural Northern Thailand. The loglinear multiple regression models estimated indicate that couples in more developed districts, more modern couples, couples in which wives have more equal roles, couples believing that intergenerational wealth transfers favor children rather than their parents, and more wealthy couples, were all significantly more likely to be early adopters of contraception. Local development levels appeared to have the greatest net effects on the timing of adoption of fertility control. In addition, couples in areas where contraceptive services were more readily available were also significantly more likely to be contraceptive innovators, net of these five variables.
Community Availability of Contraceptives and Family Limitation
Authors: Tsui Amy Ong , Hogan Dennis P. , Teachman Jay D. , Welti-Chanes Carlos
Published: March 2007

This study examines the impact of contraceptive service availability on contraceptive use in Korea, Mexico, and Bangladesh. Using World Fertility Survey Data on once-married females and their communities of residence, the mutivariate analysis finds that the community level of contraceptive availability directly affects the likelihood of current use, net of the effects of community development, education, parity, and marital duration. The results are supportive of the recent policy emphasis on maximizing the geographic availability of contraceptive services.
A Note on Measuring the Independent Impact of Family Planning Programs on Fertility Declines
Authors: Hernandez Donald J.
Published: March 2007

This note critically evaluates recent cross-national studies that estimate the independent effect of family planning programs on the fertility of the developing world. The evaluation demonstrates that past research is biased to produce overestimates of net program impact. A new estimate is derived to account more completely for the effects of the social context and socioeconomic development on fertility. This estimate indicates that 5 percent of the variation in crude birth rate decline for 89 developing countries is due to family planning programs. This is substantially less than past estimates.
A Probability Mixture Model of Completed Parity
Authors: Galbeck Amanda L.
Published: March 2007

This research was designed to find a probability model that would adequately describe completed parity for women in populations characterized by high fertility combined with high zero parity. A negative binomial mixture distribution was adapted for this purpose. The form of this distribution suggests the hypothesis that human populations consist of two subgroups of women with respect to completed parity, defined according to whether they do or do not produce viable offspring. Results of the present research further suggest that the proposed distribution for completed parity has general applicability across human populations, whether they are of a high or low fertility type, and whether they have a high or low zero parity.
Parity-Specific and Two-Sex Utility Models of Reproductive Intentions
Authors: Fried Ellen Shapiro , Hofferth Sandra Lynn , Udry J. Richard
Published: March 2007

This paper uses married couples’ anticipated consequences of having a (another) child to predict their reproductive intentions. Parity-specific models identify different variables as predictors of reproductive behavior at different parities but do not yield interpretable patterns of difference by parity. Parity-specific models are not significantly stronger predictors of reproductive behavior. Generally, wife-only models are distinctly superior to husband-only models. Two-sex models are usually better predictors than one-sex models but not enough better to justify the additional cost.
Estimates of U.S. Multiple Cause Life Tables
Authors: Manton Kenneth G. , Stallard Eric , Poss Sharon S.
Published: March 2007

Cause elimination life tables estimated from multiple cause of death data for four race/sex groups are presented for the U.S. population in 1969. These “multiple cause” life tables are then compared to cause elimination life tables where the mortality risk eliminated is that of the cause of death only in its occurrence as the underlying cause of death. An evaluation is made of the possible effects of the multiple cause data on our perception of the relative importance of the major causes of death. The reconceptualization of mortality risks made possible by the multiple cause of death data is also assessed in terms of its providing further insight into the “Taeuber paradox.”
Changing families and changing mobility: Their impact on the central city
Authors: Frey William H. , Kobrin Frances E.
Published: March 2007

Urban scholars and planners look to evidence of recent gains in the number of nontraditional households as a potential source of increase to the population sizes and tax bases of declining central cities. While it is now well established that substantial gains in the numbers of small, nontraditional households have occurred since the 1950s, it has not been demonstrated that: (a) these households are more likely to relocate in the city than traditional family households (husband-wife with children under 18); or (b) their cityward relocation patterns will significantly alter trends toward smaller city household populations. This paper addresses these questions by examining changes in city-suburb migration stream rates by household type over periods 1955–60, 1965–70 and 1970–75 for large metropolitan areas, and assesses their implications for potential changes in the aggregate sizes of city household populations.
Parity-specific fertility intentions and uncertainty: the United States, 1970 to 1976
Authors: Morgan S. Philip
Published: March 2007

A theoretical and analytic model of fertility intentions is proposed which treats “don’t know” responses and other uncertain responses as distinct from more firm intentions. Methodologically, these analyses show that “don’t know” responses need not be treated as missing data, but instead are both valid and meaningful responses. Furthermore, eliminating these uncertain respondents would have the negative effects of distorting across survey comparisons in intentions due to shifts in aggregate uncertainty, reducing the likelihood of accurately detecting shifts in fertility intentions, and lessening the representatives of the sample analyzed. Substantively, in conjunction with Morgan (1981), these results show that the sharp 1965–76 decline in the likelihood of intending more births at parities 2 through 5 occurred as women halted childbearing at minimal acceptable levels and postponed further childbearing. With time (or age), this delayed fertility became fertility about which the respondent was uncertain and, finally, fertility foregone. Since 1970, similar shifts are observed at parities 0 and 1, perhaps foreshadowing an increase in voluntary childlessness and one-child families.
The impact of class, education, and health care on infant mortality in a developing society: The case of rural Thailand
Authors: Frenzen Paul D. , Hogan Dennis P.
Published: March 2007

Demographic and social factors affecting infant mortality in rural northern Thailand are examined using log-linear modifiedmultiple regression models and data drawn from a representative sample of married couples in Chiang Mai and Chiang Rai provinces. Demographic factors do not account for the effects of variations in parental ability or willingness to provide adequate infant care. The final model estimated incorporated both these social dimensions of child care. Parental ability, measured by father’s social class, mother’s health information, and local community development levels, continued to have significant independent effects upon infant survival. Parental willingness, measured by parent’s beliefs about intergenerational wealth transfers, no longer had a significant effect net of other social variables, but infant survival was still affected by whether both parents wanted a birth.
The contribution of medical measures to the decline of mortality from respiratory tuberculosis: An ageperiod-cohort model
Authors: Collins James J.
Published: March 2007

The decline of mortality in the more developed nations has been related to two major influences, economic development and the introduction of medical measures. The contribution of medical measures has been a source of continuing controversy. Most previous studies employ either a birth cohort or calendar year arrangement of mortality data to address this controversy. The present study applies an age-period-cohort model to mortality from respiratory tuberculosis in England and Wales, Italy, and New Zealand in an attempt to separate economic influences from that of medical measures. The results of the analysis indicate that while the overall contribution of medical measures is small when examined by calendar year, specific birth cohorts both in Italy and in England and Wales benefited substantially from these measures. The environmental conditions in New Zealand, however, were such that the introduction of medical measures barely affected declining mortality levels from respiratory tuberculosis.
Trend and variation in the seasonality of U.S. fertility, 1947–1976
Authors: Seiver Daniel A.
Published: March 2007

This paper documents the postwar pattern of seasonality of births, for the United States and its divisions, using a simple time-varying parameter model. Variations over time and over space in seasonality are analyzed. In general, the South exhibits the greatest seasonal variation, and the most dramatic changes in seasonality. In later sections the hypothesis that the spread of air conditioning is responsible for the postwar changes in seasonality is tested, and a link between hormones and seasonality is speculated upon. A final section has a short summary and several questions for future research.
Estimation of period-specific gross migration flows from limited data: Bi-proportional adjustment approach
Authors: Nair P. S.
Published: March 2007

Two models, hierarchical in terms of input data requirements, are proposed to estimate place-to-place gross migration flows during a specified time period. In the first, the input data required are lifetime migration flows and the marginal totals of period migration, usually available from national censuses. The estimational algorithm is a ‘bi-proportional adjustment’ technique (and its variant) that assumes structural similarity between lifetime and period migration flows. The second model is designed to account for possible structural deviations in recent migratory patterns. Calibration of the procedure to replicate Indian and Korean data confirms high validity of estimation.
Intention and Uncertainty at Later Stages of Childbearing: The United States 1965 and 1970
Authors: Morgan S. Philip
Published: March 2007

While births may be dichotomous, fertility intentions are not inherently so. Intentions are predictions about the future and, as such, are couched in considerable uncertainty. Ignoring this uncertainty hides much of what could be learned from data on fertility intentions. This paper presents a model which allows analysis of the full range of intentions. After selecting a sample of women in the later stage of childbearing (e.g., those who intend fewer than two additional children) from the 1965and 1970 National Fertility Studies, it is shown that: (1) substantial portions of women at this stage of the reproductive life cycle were indeed uncertain of their parity-specific intention; (2) this certainty, like more firm intentions, varies by age and parity as the model predicts; and (3) there were significant shifts in the level of certainty between 1965 and 1970. Specifically, while intentions for third, fourth, and fifth births declined, more women “didn’t know” if they intended to have another child or not. Among those not intending another child, more seemed uncertain of this intention in 1970 than did comparable women in 1965. In contrast, those intending another child seemed more certain. These changes in intention and uncertainty indicate that the observed decline in intended parity was tentative. Post-1970 evidence suggests that this tentative decline has become an unequivocal one.
A Dynamic Analysis of Migration: An Assessment of the Effects of Age, Family and Career Variables
Authors: Sandefur Gary D. , Scott Wilbur J.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the utility of viewing migration in the context of work careers and family life cycles. We do this by studying migration as a discrete state, continuous time process. We find that the inverse relationship between age and migration is due almost completely to the effects of family life cycle and work career variables. Further, we find that job- or locationspecific resources, prestige and wage deter migration.
A Note on the Changing Geography of Cancer Mortality within Metropolitan Regions of the United States
Authors: Greenberg Michael R.
Published: March 2007

An investigation made of the geography of cancer mortality rates within the most populous metropolitan regions of the United States and the New Jersey-New York-Philadelphia metropolitan corridor shows that during the early 1950s, as expected, central city counties had substantially higher cancer mortality rates, especially respiratory and digestive, than did suburbs. Two decades later, differences between the central cities and the suburbs had narrowed and sometimes disappeared.
Population Density and Fertility in 22 Indian Villages
Authors: Firebaugh Glenn
Published: March 2007

Do agriculturists in the Third World sometimes adjust to increasing population density by having fewer children? Over-time data (1961–1972) for 22 farm villages in India point to such a possibility. Cross-sectionally, villages with higher density tend to have lower fertility, even with controls for village caste composition, prior fertility, female literacy, and agricultural production. Similarly, the regression coefficient for village density is negative when the cross-sections are “pooled.” Population density apparently has an inhibiting effect on fertility in these villages.
The Eventual Frequencies of Kin in a Stable Population
Authors: Pullum Thomas W.
Published: March 2007

Associated with every real birth cohort of women is a set of probabilities {fk} of eventually having k daughters. With a variant of stable population theory, these probabilities are used to generate the entire probability distributions, as well as all moments, for all categories of kin who are female and female-related. With additional assumptions, a full two-sex model for all kin also is given. The two-sex model is applied to a cohort of U.S. women born in the mid-twentieth century, suggesting plausible frequencies of kin in a stationary population.
Statistical and Historical Analyses of Nations Which Deviate From the Size-Density Law
Authors: Stephan G. Edward , McMullin Douglas R. , Stephan Karen H.
Published: March 2007

We examine nations which deviate significantly from the −2/3 sizedensity slope previously observed for the aggregated political subdivisions of 98 modern nations and previously derived from the theory of timeminimization. We correct Stephan’s original list of deviant nations, demonstrate that all slopes more negative than −2/3 were due to the erroneous inclusion of cities in the original data sets, develop a theory to account for the less negative deviant slopes, and test the theory both through statistical manipulation of current data and through analysis of available historical data.
Determinants of Cumulative Fertility in Ghana
Authors: Tawiah E. O.
Published: March 2007

The relatively few studies conducted on fertility differentials in Ghana have not controlled for the effect of important demographic variables, such as age at first marriage and current age of respondent. This paper attempts a multivariate analysis of the relationship between cumulative fertility and age at first marriage, level of education, religion, form of marriage and residence of husband. Data drawn from a census sample survey in 1971 include 72,816 currently married females aged 15–49 years. Age at first marriage was inversely related to cumulative fertility. The differentials were more pronounced for older women. Among the older women, the differentials were larger for rural than urban women. There were also significant fertility differentials associated with level of education, religion and form of marriage. Husband’s residence was a poor predictor of cumulative fertility. As a policy measure, it is suggested that priority be given to providing young women with more education or employment opportunities as an alternative to early marriage.
Measurement and Replication: Evaluating the Consistency of Eight U. S. Fertility Surveys
Authors: Swicegood C. Gray , Morgan S. Philip , Rindfuss Ronald R.
Published: March 2007

This paper addresses the comparability of data from eight national fertility surveys conducted in the United States between 1955 and 1980. We examine the extent to which substantive conclusions about the levels and correlates of the timing offirst birth vary across these data sources by comparing samples of women who were eligible to be included in more than one study. Results obtained from Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and logistic regression analyses of several measures of timing indicate few study effects. Thus findings based on data from one survey can be replicated with comparable data from another. One notable exception is the relationship between contraceptive use prior to the first birth and the timing of that birth. The contraceptive variable appears to be poorly measured, leading to unstable estimates of the relationship. In general, our results suggest: (1) the feasibility of pooling data from the various surveys when modeling delayed childbearing; and (2) reasonable accuracy in assessing trends in the timing of first birth from multiple data sources.
Population Redistribution and Changes in the Size-Density Slope
Authors: Stephan G. Edward , Stephan Karen H.
Published: March 2007

As regional population density increases territorial units tend to subdivide. For maximum societal time-efficiency the slope relating the logarithms of unit areas to those of unit densities should be −2/3. When boundaries become fixed, however, observed slopes tend to drift toward a value of zero. It was earlier hypothesized that such slope-erosion was due to increasing concentration of the population. Historical data for the primary political divisions of ten nations shows general support for the hypothesis.
An Evaluation of estimates of underenumeration in the census and the age pattern of mortality, philadelphia, 1880
Authors: Condran Gretchen A.
Published: March 2007

The schedule of mortality by age for Philadelphia’s 1880 population classified by sex and race showed aberrations from Coale and Demeny West, South, and North model life tables. Deviations from standard age patterns of mortality were especially pronounced for the black population. The question addressed in this paper is whether the alternative age patterns of mortality are produced by underenumeration in the 1880census or by actual variations in the age–specific mortality experience. The conclusion was reached that the underenumeration of the urban population, especially the blacks, exceeds estimates for the national population. In addition, the results indicated that the black population faced risks of dying that genuinely differed from standard age patterns. An attempt to use a Brass logit model to generalize the black mortality experience met with success for females but not for males.
Children and marital disruption: A replication and update
Authors: Bumpass Larry L.
Published: March 2007

Data from the 1980 June Current Population Survey are used to estimate the incidence and duration of marital disruption as experienced by children. Rates during the 1977–1979 period suggest that about twofifths of children born to married mothers will experience the disruption of that marriage while they are children. When children born before their mothers’ first marriage are included, half of recent cohorts are likely to spend some time in a single parent family. These rates increased consistently over the 1970s. For the majority of those who experience a marital disruption, over five years are likely to elapse before the mother remarries. Furthermore, about half of the children who go through a divorce and remarriage will experience the breakup of the new family as well. At the same time, the interval between separation and divorce is less than a year for most children involved. There are major differences in these rates by race and important differences as well by education and age of mother. Replication of our earlier estimates for comparable periods was quite good for the estimates of the experience of marital dissolution, but somewhat less so for the analysis of mother’s subsequent remarriage.
The analysis of linkages in demographic theory
Authors: Arthur W. Brian
Published: March 2007

Many seemingly different questions that arise in the analysis of population change can be phrased as the same technical question: How, within a given demographic model, would variable y change if the age- or time-specific function f were to change arbitrarily in shape and intensity? At present demography lacks the machinery to answer this question in analytical and general form. This paper suggests a method based on modern functional calculus for deriving closed-form expressions for the sensitivity of demographic variables to changes in input functions or schedules. It uses this “linkage method” to obtain closed-form expressions for the response of the intrinsic growth rate, birth rate, and age composition of a stable population to arbitrary marginal changes in its age patterns of fertility and mortality. It uses it also to obtain expressions for the transient response of the age composition of a nonstable population to time-varying changes in the birth sequence, and to age-specific fertility and mortality patterns that change over time. The problem of “bias” in period vital rates is also looked at.
Components of change in the number of households: 1970–1980
Authors: Sweet James A.
Published: March 2007

There was an increase from 62.8 to 79.1 million households in the United States during the 1970s. The number of households increased much more rapidly than the population. This paper decomposes this growth in the number of households into components associated with changing age and marital status composition and changing age by marital status-specific propensities to form households. About one-third of the increase in the number of households was due to increased age by marital status propensity to form households, and two-thirds was due to shifts in the age by marital status distribution and population growth. The increased propensity to form households had its major impact at ages under 35, and primarily among never-married persons. The composition component had its primary impact at ages 25–44 as a result of the baby boom, and also because of the increased fractions never married and separated and divorced.
Place, race and differential occupational opportunities
Authors: Semyonov Moshe , Hoyt Danny R. , Scott Richard I.
Published: March 2007

A large body of literature investigating the link between black percentage in the community and occupational differentiation, has found disparities to be greater in places where blacks are in a higher proportion. The present paper discusses first, theoretical perspectives and methodological techniques employed in past research; second, examines the issue in terms of the relative odds of the races for incumbency in a series of occupational groupings; and third, analyzes the effect of percentage black on race–linked occupational differentiation across 124 major American cities. Using log-linear procedures, blacks, relative to whites, are much more likely to be in unskilled and semiskilled manual occupations, while whites, relative to blacks, are far more likely to be in white-collar and upper-status positions. Moreover, blacks’ denial of access to higher-status positions, their channeling to lower-status work, and their ability to overflow into specific intermediate-status occupations are found to be greatly influenced both by percentage black as well as other community characteristics. The findings are discussed in light of sociological theories suggesting that the issue cannot be understood solely by the competition hypothesis. One must also consider the overflow and queuing explanations.
Values and Disvalues of Children in Successive Childbearing Decisions
Authors: Bulatao Rodolfo A.
Published: March 2007

The values and disvalues that wives and husbands in the Philippines, South Korea, and the United States attach to having another child are described from national survey data. Loglinear models are used to demonstrate that both country and parity affect value and disvalues rankings, but respondent’s sex does not. The differences in values and disvalues across parities suggest a multistage model of family formation, with perceptions of successive children linked to periods in family development. It is argued that this multistage. model is consistent with changes in the value of children in the fertility transition.
The Use of Hypothetical Cohorts in Estimating Demographic Parameters under Conditions of Changing Fertility and Mortality
Authors: Zlotnik Hania , Hill Kenneth
Published: March 2007

The indirect methods of demographic estimation available to date are often inadequate to estimate levels in the presence of trends. The use of measures relative to hypothetical cohorts to minimize the effectsoftrends and estimate period levels is described. Procedures allowing the estimation of intersurvey levels of fertility, child mortality and adult mortality are illustrated using data from Thailand and Peru.
Racial Differences in Per Capita Income, 1960–76: The Importance of Household Size, Headship, and Labor Force Participation
Authors: Bianchi Suzanne M.
Published: March 2007

Racial differences in average per capita income are decomposed, as are changes over time for both races. The 1960–76 decline in household size accounted for 13 percent of the per capita income inprovement of both races. Whereas real increases in earnings of husbands contributed most to improvements in well-being in husband-wife households, increases in income from sources other than earnings were most important to female headed households. During a period in which a growing proportion of both races resided in female headed households and racial differences in living arrangements widened, the per capita income of female headed households relative to husband-wife households declined.
Variations in interstate migration of men across the early stages of the life cycle
Authors: Sandefur Gary D.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the impact of job characteristics and of length of residence in one place on the likelihood of interstate migration for young men at different points in the early life course. An event history analysis of a sample of U.S. white males between the ages of 14 and 39 indicates that job rewards and location-specific resources vary at different stages of the life cycle, that the effects of some of these job-related factors differ according to marital status, and that the rate of interstate migration is significantly more dependent on length of residence for married men with children than for single men.
Reproductive impairments in the united states, 1965–1982
Authors: Mosher William D.
Published: March 2007

The first national estimates of current fecundity status of women of all marital statuses indicate that, in 1982, about 5.1 million women were unable to have a future birth but would have liked to. About 2.7 million had difficulty bearing children, and the other 2.4 million were surgically sterile for noncontraceptive reasons. Since 1965, infertility was unchanged overall and in most age groups, but increased among wives aged 20–24. This paper explores a number of methodological and substantive questions related to reproductive impairments, such as the frequency of intercourse, the duration of infertility, and the possible causes of trends.
Desired fertility, the “up to god” response, and sample selection bias
Authors: Jensen Eric
Published: March 2007

An unresolved question in the analysis of survey data relating to fertility attitudes and beliefs is how non-numeric responses to questions on ideal family size should be treated. This paper demonstrates that simply dropping “up to God” responses will bias regression results. An unbiased estimator is presented which explicitly models the way in which observations are selected into the sample. The estimator is then employed on Guatemalan and Indian data. No support for the notion that women who answer “up to God” are women who would have given relatively large numeric answers is found in these two samples.
The two generation urbanite hypothesis revisited
Authors: McGirr Nancy J. , Hirschman Charles
Published: March 2007

It is generally accepted that socioeconomic differentials in fertility are minimal among urban couples with nonfarm origins—two generation urbanites. In this paper, we replicate Duncan’s (1965) analysis to see if the two generation urbanite hypothesis holds for more recent cohorts of American women. In four cohorts of women, drawn from three recent fertility surveys, we find no support for the two generation urbanite hypothesis. It appears that the links between farm background, socioeconomic status and fertility were different for the low fertility cohorts of women born in the early 1900s and the more recent cohorts of women who experienced the baby boom.
Models of illegitimacy: United States, 1969
Authors: Freshnock Larry , Cutright Phillips
Published: March 2007

Three theoretical perspectives on illegitimacy, the anomie, the sub-group, and the demographic, are reviewed and compared. A composite causal model is then developed and estimated using areal data derived from the 1970 U.S. Census. While theoretical nonspecificity disallowed a definitive test, all three perspectives yielded valuable insight into the complex mechanisms underlying illegitimacy rates. Results indicate that variation in illegitimacy rates is systematically related to variation in social structure and that integration of the three positions should prove useful to further research.
Validation of an inferential approach for the measurement of illegitimacy
Authors: Chamblee Ronald F. , Clifford William B. , Mustian R. David
Published: March 2007

An inferential model which utilizes surname comparisons in inferring legitimacy status is developed and validated. Criterion validation is employed to assess the level of agreement between the inferential approach and the conventional reporting procedure. Data for the analysis are based on a sample of birth certificates contained in files of the National Center for Health Statistics for calendar year 1973. Results indicate that despite excessive error within some categories of the control variables, the inferential method is generally adequate to obtain reliable estimates of illegitimacy.
Social background composition and educational growth
Authors: Mare Robert D.
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the impact of intercohort changes in social background composition on changes in grade progression rates at selected schooling levels. It presents formal arguments that the relative and absolute effects of background composition on grade progression rates should decline over levels of schooling, and using data for white males born between 1907 and 1951, offers empirical support for these arguments. Whereas twentieth century increases in average educational attainment are primarily due to increases in grade progression rates at the elementary and secondary levels, future growth must occur through increases in transition rates beyond high school, given the near universality of high school graduation for cohorts born at midcentury. Our analysis shows that postsecondary progression rates are much less responsive to changes in family background composition than rates earlier in the schooling process. Despite intercohort changes in background composition that are increasingly favorable to educational attainment, future educational growth may be slower than past growth because compositional effects on average attainment will be through progression rates where the effects are weak.
Sex differences in patterns of career mobility
Authors: Rosenfeld Rachel A. , Sørensen Aage B.
Published: March 2007

Using the 1970 Census data, this paper examines differences by sex in patterns of intragenerational occupational mobility over a five year period (1965–1970) for two cohorts of white, U.S. men and women. The observed mobility patterns are separated into that part due to structural factors (i.e., the different distributions over occupational origins and destinations by sex) and that due to sex-related individual and group characteristics. Most of the observed differences in mobility patterns are found to be the result of occupational sex segregation.
Family formation and the life cycle
Authors: Krishnamoorthy S.
Published: March 2007

Mathematical expressions are developed for certain life cycles when only the age-specific birth and death rates are known. The probability at birth that a woman will have a specified number of children and the expected length of time spent before the first birth, between the first and the last child, and between the last child and the time of the woman’s death are shown to be calculable. Expressions for the probability of at least one child outliving the mother and for the expected number of children outliving the mother are also developed and are evaluated for three selected countries with different birth and death rates to show how these life cycles depend on birth and death rates.
Bias in graduated life table functions
Authors: Pollard J. H.
Published: March 2007

Survival proportions and expectations of life estimated directly from observed crude mortality rates are usually unbiased. Estimates of survival proportions and expectations of life obtained from graduated mortality rates at individual ages tend to be positively biased, although the actual bias is small for reasonably large experiences.