bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Toward a Theory of Inter-Organizational Relations
Authors: Evan William M.
Published: November 2008

Social science research has been concerned primarily with intra-organizational phenomena. The twin problems of theory and methodology have impeded research on inter-organizational phenomena. Merton's concept of the “role-set” is the point of departure for an analogous concept designated as the “organization-set.” The unit of analysis is an organization or a class of organizations, referred to as the focal organization, and its interactions are mapped with the network of organizations in its environment, i.e., with elements of its organization-set. Seven dimensions of organization-sets are discussed: input vs. output organization-sets, comparative vs. normative reference organizations; size of the organization-set; concentration of input organizational resources; overlap in membership; overlap in goals and values; and boundary personnel. With the aid of these dimensions, hypotheses are formulated concerning the variable of autonomy in decision-making of the focal organization. Similar hypotheses—several of which are set forth—are needed for various inter-organizational processes, such as coordination, cooperation, competition, conflict, and amalgamation. Two methodological tools which may prove useful in empirical research on inter-organizational relations, graph theory and input-output analysis, are considered.
Stochastic Decision Trees for the Analysis of Investment Decisions
Authors: Hespos Richard F. , Strassmann Paul A.
Published: November 2008

This paper describes an improved method for investment decision making. The method, which is called the stochastic decision tree method, is particularly applicable to investments characterized by high uncertainty and requiring a sequence of related decisions to be made over a period of time. The stochastic decision tree method builds on concepts used in the risk analysis method and the decision tree method of analyzing investments. It permits the use of subjective probability estimates or empirical frequency distributions for some or all factors affecting the decision. This application makes it practicable to evaluate all or nearly all feasible combinations of decisions in the decision tree, taking account of both expected value of return and aversion to risk, thus arriving at an optimal or near optimal set of decisions. Sensitivity analysis of the model can highlight factors that are critical because of high leverage on the measure of performance, or high uncertainty, or both. The method can be applied relatively easily to a wide variety of investment situations, and is ideally suited for computer simulation.
On the Mathematical Theory of Schedules
Authors: Mayhugh J. O.
Published: November 2008

The elapsed time to complete a scheduled task is expressed as a function of the completion times of the component tasks and the path matrix of the scheddule graph. The schedule function is interpreted geometrically as a polyhedron. If the scheduled activities have random completion times, the probability distribution of the time to complete the entire task is found by integrating over the contours of the polyhedron. Composite schedule functions are represented by algebraic formulae which are applicable in both the probabilistic and non-probabilistic cases. A method for joint control of cost and schedule is presented.
A Problem in Making Resources Last
Authors: MacQueen J.
Published: November 2008

An individual uses up a certain resource at a constant rate, but from time to time has a chance to gamble some of the resource in order to gain more. The expectation of each gamble is zero, i.e., the gambles are fair. This means that eventually the resource will run out. However, the form of the risk can be varied arbitrarily. The question is what form of risk to choose, when the object is maximize the expectation of the utility, u(T), of having the resources run out at time T. This problem is solved for a more or less arbitrary function u(T).

Various possible interpretations of such a function u(T) are discussed briefly.

The model is mainly intended to provide a basis for empirical studies of individual decision making, where its complete mathematical tractibility is convenient.
Communication to the Editor—Allocating Funds to Investment Projects when Returns are Subject to Uncertainty: A Comment
Authors: Dyckman T. R.
Published: November 2008

A comment to Cord, J. 1964. A method for allocating funds to investment projects when returns are subject to uncertainty. Management Sci. 10(2, January) 335–341.
Some Growth Considerations of Research and Development and the National Economy
Authors: Weiss Herbert K.
Published: November 2008

This paper considers some of the relationships among growth in expenditures for research and development and growth of the national econony measured in terms of gross national product. The associated requirement for scientific and engineering personnel is discussed. It is shown that the relationships developed from a simple growth model are generally consistent with what is currently known about economic growth rates and R&D growth rates in a number of countries.
Mathematical Analysis of Rates of Return Under Certainty
Authors: Teichroew Daniel , Robichek Alexander A. , Montalbano Michael
Published: November 2008

The purpose of this paper is to prove certain properties of the present and future values of a sequence of cash flows which have applications in the theory of capital budgeting. This is done in Theorems III, IV and V. As an introduction, certain previously available results about the present value function are stated and proved as Theorems I and II. A summary of the relevance of these results in capital budgeting is given in the Summary.
Special Simplex Algorithm for Linked Problems
Authors: Heesterman A. R. G. , Sandee J.
Published: November 2008

This paper describes a variant of the Simplex algorithm, applicable to matrices containing blocks of elements along and just below the diagonal. It uses the emptiness of the other blocks to save space and computation.
Risk-Taking in Critical Path Analysis
Authors: Jewell William S.
Published: November 2008

In most PERT scheduling problems, uncertainties in job duration are handeled by a “wait-and-see” formulation in which it is assumed that the samples of job duration are known at the moment of scheduling; much attention has been devoted to the distribution of minimal project time under these assumptions. In this paper, a “here-and-now” formulation is proposed in which the manager takes a risk by fixing the project event times before the job durations are known; based on the allotted time interval, and the actual duration of the job, additional effort may have to be expended to stay on schedule. Under general assumptions, it is shown that minimizing the average total additional effort needed to stay on schedule will result in a cost-time scheduling problem of the CPM type.
Scheduling with Deadlines and Loss Functions on k Parallel Machines
Authors: Root James G.
Published: November 2008

An optimal schedule is developed for H jobs on K identical machines in single stage production. The optimal schedule minimizes ∑b[max (0, Ai − di)] where Ai is the actual completion time for job i and di is the deadline for job i. A common deadline, t0, is assumed for all jobs, i.e., di = t0, i = 1, …, H.
Communications to the Editor—Supplement to “The Derivation of Probabilistic Information for the Evaluation of Risky Investments”
Authors: Hillier Frederick S.
Published: November 2008

This note is intended to clarify an issue that has been raised regarding one section of a recent paper by this writer [Hillier, Frederick S. 1963. The derivation of probabilistic information for the evaluation of risky investments. Management Sci. 9 (3, April) 443–457.]. This issue concerns the proposed method for calculating the cumulative distribution function of internal rate of return. The most relevant passages from the paper follow.
Remarks on “Inventory Valuations—An Analytic Technique” By Harlan D. Mills
Authors: Isvaran Balkrishna
Published: November 2008

Remarks on “Inventory Valuations—An Analytic Technique” Management Science, Vol. 8, No. 1 (October 1961), pp. 58–86 by Harlan D. Mills.
Operations Research in Education
Authors: Shepherd William G.
Published: November 2008

Talk delivered October 9, 1964 at the TIMS-ORSA meeting in Minneapolis.
Applying Operations Research and the Management Sciences to the Problems of Government
Authors: Staats Elmer B.
Published: November 2008

Talk delivered on October 8, 1964 at the TIMS-ORSA meeting in Minneapolis.
A Sequence of Two Servers with No Intermediate Queue
Authors: Avi-Itzhak B. , Yadin M.
Published: November 2008

Customers arriving randomly are served by a queueing system consisting of a sequence of two service stations with infinite queue allowable before the first station and no queue allowable between the stations. The moment generating functions of the steady-state queueing times as well as the generating functions of the steady-state numbers of customers in the various parts of the system are obtained under assumptions of Poisson process of arrivals and arbitrarily distributed service times at both stations. The cases of regular and exponential service times are investigated in some more detail, and the results obtained are extended to include the queueing system with a sequence of two stations with a finite intermediate queue allowable between them, infinite queue allowed before the first station, Poisson process of arrivals and regular service times at both stations.
A Stabilization Policy for the Cotton Textile Cycle
Authors: Zymelman Manuel
Published: November 2008

This article describes the application of the analog computer to the solution of a stabilization problem in the cotton textile gray goods industry.

The behavioristic assumptions of the model are based on data analysis of the industry and personal interviews. The simulation shows that it is possible to reduce the amplitude of the cotton textile gray goods cycle by introducing a simple policy in the production decision-making process whereby greater attention is paid to changes in inventories than to changes in unfilled orders.
Capacity Expansion with Facilities Under Technological Improvement
Authors: Hinomoto Hirohide
Published: November 2008

Practically all existing analyses covering the obsolescence or the improvement of productive facilities are concerned with equipment replacement. An extension of such considerations to general capital investment analysis would seem to be a natural development.

The present analysis is related to an investment decision on the expansion of productive capacity in discrete steps with facilities which undergo technological improvement. First, the analysis for expansion in one step is developed after the effects of technological improvement on the price and operating cost of a future facility have been introduced. The discussion of one-step expansion is then extended to an N-step expansion.

In both types of expansion, the necessary conditions for optimum values of investment decision variables are obtained in order to maximize the present value of the net profit over the planning period.
Communication to the Editor—Comments on “Statistical Control of Time Standards”
Authors: Banerjee Ranajit
Published: November 2008

Comments on Langier, F. J. 1963. Statistical control of time standards. Management Sci. 9 (4, July) 527–541.
The Unity of Science and Management
Authors: Hertz David B.
Published: November 2008

It has been the custom of the President of The Institute of Management Sciences, at the ending of his term of office, to explore various aspects of the affairs of the Institute and to indicate trends and directions for the future. I shall not directly touch on the varied, vigorous, and extensive activities of TIMS members, chapters, colleges, editors, meeting committees, and officers, but I do wish to express my gratitude and that of the council for all who have participated in carrying out our goals of identification, unification, and extension of scientific knowledge that contributes to the understanding and improvement of management practice.
The Production Process: Operating Characteristics
Authors: Abruzzi Adam
Published: November 2008

It is the thesis of this paper that the production process has an operating logic whose kernel is found in an organizational plan and program. In this sense there exist only two types of organization, classically identified as the straight-line type and the job-shop type. Considered in usual analytical terms, no industrial plant is completely of one type or of the other. However, the two types are sharply distinguishable—Indeed they are opposites—in terms, particularly, of their programs, which refer to organic, rather than analytical, parameters.

This oppositeness of the two types of production process leads to distinct sets of operating characteristics. Thus, for instance, in the straight-line case the property of functional independence among elementary operations leads to a production sequencing order which is essentially fixed, with linkages based on work pace rather than work content. Conversely in the job-order case, there are functional Interrelationships among organic work phases, leading to a variable production sequencing order based on work content rather than work pace.

Within this framework the paper traces in each case the logical connections between the particular aspects of the production process, such as in production plans, loadings and schedules, and also in production flow characteristics. The consequences of this with regard to the nature and application of control techniques are also shown, as are the reflections on manpower distribution and wage-payment plans.
A Note on the Assortment Problem
Authors: Frank Charles R.
Published: November 2008

Wieslaw Sadowski [Sadowski, W. 1959. A few remarks on the assortment problem. Management Sci. 6 (1, October).] has proposed a dynamic programming approach to the solution of the assortment problem by showing its equivalence to the shortest route problem and using Bellman's algorithm [Bellman, R. 1957. Dynamic Programming. Princeton, University Press, New Jersey.]. In this paper we offer an alternative solution which solves a slightly more general problem and prove a theorem which greatly reduces the amount of computation necessary to arrive at a solution.
Assembly Line Balancing Using Probabilistic Combinations of Heuristics
Authors: Tonge Fred M.
Published: November 2008

Several recent research efforts have studied the use of probabilistic schemes for generating solutions to particular combinatorial problems. Characteristically, such schemes include both rapid production of many potential solutions, through repeated application of simple choice rules, and dynamic modification of the production process (“learning”).

In this study the simple choice rules (heuristics) used are derived from earlier applications of heuristic programming to the assembly line balancing problem. Repeated trials with probabilistic choice of simple rules are here viewed as an alternative method of organizing the appropriate selection and application of these heuristics.

The procedure assigns tasks to work stations along the assembly line by randomly selecting a heuristic for choosing the next task to be added to the current work station. While many suitable heuristics for assembly line balancing have been suggested in the literature, our studies have primarily used the following: choose the task with the largest operation time; choose the task with the most immediate followers; choose a task randomly.

The results for studies of several problems, and several cycle times of each problem, can be summarized as follows. Random selection of heuristics for choosing the next task does as well as or better than (i.e., results in fewer work stations than) either use of the individual heuristics alone, or random choice of the tasks directly, without intervening choice of heuristics.
A Quantitative Approach to Employment Planning
Authors: Nemhauser George L. , Nuttle Henry L. W.
Published: November 2008

A model is developed for planning the intake of employees as a function of time in the face of varying demand for service. The problem is complicated by resignations which, in part, depend on the intake. The model is solved by dynamic programming using a form of successive approximations to circumvent the computational difficulty of high state variable dimensionality. The model is presented in the context of a real situation for which the results have been successfully implemented.
Intention and Performance: A Primer of Cybernetics of Planning
Authors: Greniewski Henryk
Published: November 2008

It is claimed that the object of a plan is always a relatively isolated prospective system: the goal is a certain state of the output; the means are the states of the controlled inputs; and the circumstances under which the goal is to be attained are the states of the uncontrolled inputs.

The relationships as between the goal, the means, and the circumstances are analyzed; planning is given a game theoretical interpretation; the implementation of a plan is a two-person game, the planner, and the circumstances being the two players.

The concepts of a revision of the plan, the logical structure of the plan, and the various types of the models of planning are also discussed.
Optimal Programming of Lot Sizes, Inventory and Labor Allocations
Authors: Dzielinski Bernard P. , Gomory Ralph E.
Published: November 2008

The economic lot size programming problem, as studied originally by A. S. Manne and later by B. P. Dzielinski, C. T. Baker and A. S. Manne, is the problem of making economic lot size, inventory and work force decisions in a multi-production process. When several thousand distinct items are involved, the large number of equations that result from the linear programming formulation makes computation infeasible. Also, a large number of variables are involved because of inclusion of alternative set-up sequences for each item. In this paper, the application of the Dantzig and Wolfe decomposition principle and a method for creating alternative set-up sequences as they are needed by means of a computation of the Wagner and Whitin type is described as a method for overcoming the computational difficulty.

A digital computer program has been developed using these methods. The results of some experiments where production was planned for a large number of distinct items are described.
An Infinite Linear Program with a Duality Gap
Authors: Duffin R. J. , Karlovitz L. A.
Published: November 2008

The first part of this paper is concerned with the semi-infinite linear programs studied by Charnes, Cooper and Kortanek. A form of the Farkas lemma stated by Haar appears to apply to such programs and leads to a duality theorem. In this paper an example of a semi-infinite program is given which is consistent and which has a finite minimum. However the dual program is found to be inconsistent. With a variation of the example a situation is exhibited in which both the program and its dual are consistent and have finite extrema. In this case, however, the minimum of the former is not equal to the maximum of the latter. The existence of such a “duality gap” indicates that Haar's statement needs qualification. In the second part of the paper a correct form of Haar's theorem is stated and proved. The proof invokes the infinite programming theory of Duffin and Kretschmer. The last part of the paper develops a new duality theory for infinite programs which, as a special case, insures a weak form of duality for programs typified by the examples. This new duality theory is somewhat simpler than previous theories of infinite programming.
Optimal Coupon Schedules for Municipal Bonds
Authors: Cohen Kalman J. , Hammer Frederick S.
Published: November 2008

When an underwriting syndicate submits a bid for a new issue of municipal bonds, one of the important decisions that it must make involves the scheduling of interest coupons to be placed on the bonds. Given the bid specifications stated by the issuing municipality and some prior decisions of the underwriters, it is shown that the determination of the optimal coupon schedule can be expressed as a linear programming problem. Since this LP problem has a special structure, a simple computational algorithm requiring less computation than the simplex method is derived. This paper goes beyond previous contributions to the literature in three important ways. First, simple formulas for obtaining the dual evaluators are developed; the marginal effect of shifts in the yield curve is also presented. Second, it is shown that in the non-integer year case both the conclusions of previous writers and the conventional heuristics of the market may be erroneous, whereas the general solution techniques developed in this paper remain valid. Finally, a direct analogy between the coupon schedule problem and the microeconomic theory of the firm is used in obtaining the special computational algorithm for this LP problem.
An Operational System for Smoothing Batch-Type Production
Authors: O'Malley Richard L. , Elmaghraby Salah E. , Jeske John W.
Published: November 2008

This paper describes a production smoothing system which combines several known scheduling tools into an operational unit. The input to the system is forecasted customer demand; the outputs are the required production levels, size of labor force, planned overtime and expected inventories of classes and individual end products. Because of varying demand, economic manufacturing quantities are calculated by the method of dynamic programming following Wagner and Whitin. The manufacturing progress function is used to convert units into labor requirements. Finally, the operating schedule is derived by a linear programming formulation which balances payroll costs, the costs of labor fluctuations, and inventory charges. This system has been in operation for several months.
The Facilities Layout Problem in Perspective
Authors: Vollmann Thomas E. , Buffa Elwood S.
Published: November 2008

The relative location of facilities in a functional layout has been determined under the criterion of materials handling cost minimization. Recent advances in analytical methods have provided superior solutions within this criterion hut the validity of certain underlying assumptions must be questioned. Materials handling as a criterion is deficient for many facilities layout problems; yet a modified definition of "materials" may yield considerable insight to the improved location of people. Each layout problem is made unique by its particular assumptions, constraints, limitations, and the intrinsic activity of the components; a guide to establishing this uniqueness and to selecting appropriate tool3 for analysis is presented.
A Statistical Theory for PERT Critical Path Analysis
Authors: Hartley H. O. , Wortham A. W.
Published: November 2008

PERT and Critical Path techniques are enjoying exceptionally broad application in industrial and military activities. These techniques and their application have without doubt contributed significantly to better planning, control, and general organization of many programs. Although some currently used PERT computations take account of the variation in the completion times of individual operations, the methods used are approximate and are known to lead to (a) optimistic project completion times and (b) misidentifications of “critical paths.” In this paper the effect of these approximations is assessed and an unbiassed statistical distribution theory for PERT developed. Both analytic theory and numerical analysis are used to achieve this but in certain situations approximate evaluations by Monte Carlo have to be made. Moreover, a new classification of PERT networks is presented along with two methods of analysis which do not have the deficiencies noted above. The classification system delineates clearly between “uncrosaed,” “crossed,” and “mixed networks.”
A Bayesian Analysis of the Style Goods Inventory Problem
Authors: Murray George R. , Silver Edward A.
Published: November 2008

A style goods item has a finite selling period during which the sales rate varies in a seasonal and, to some extent, predictable fashion. There are only a limited number of opportunities to purchase or manufacture the style goods item, and the cost, in general, will depend on the time at which the item is obtained. The unit revenue achieved from sales of the item also varies during the selling season, and, in particular, reaches an appreciably lower terminal salvage value.

Previous work on this class of problem has assumed one of the following:

(a) There is a known deterministic sales rate during the season.

(b) The sales are generated by a stochastic process having exactly known probabilities.

Both of these formulations of the problem overlook what we believe to be an essential feature—that initially we have a great uncertainty concerning the sales potential of the item but have an opportunity to develop a better forecast as actual sales become known.

The model discussed in this paper treats the sales potential of the item as a subjective random variable whose distribution is changed adaptively (through the use of Bayes' Rule) as the sales history unfolds. We examine several methods for encoding the prior knowledge that lead to a computationally feasible dynamic programming solution to the problem. An interesting feature of this approach is that the dynamic programming state represents both the unsold inventory of the item and the current state of knowledge concerning the sales potential.

Numerical examples are discussed, showing the importance of formulating the problem, in a way that includes a state of knowledge that adaptively improves as demand becomes known. Finally, computational shortcuts that make problems of a larger scale computationally feasible are discussed.
Extensions of SUMT for Nonlinear Programming: Equality Constraints and Extrapolation
Authors: Fiacco Anthony V. , McCormick Garth P.
Published: November 2008

This paper extends the Sequential Unconstrained Minimization Technique for nonlinear programming to include problems where the constraints are a mixture of inequalities and equalities. Theorems indicating the dual nature of the method and the solution of a subproblem are given. Finally, the theoretical basis for a k-point extrapolation procedure is established.
Discrete Optimizing Solution Procedures for Linear and Nonlinear Integer Programming Problems
Authors: Reiter Stanley , Rice Donald B.
Published: November 2008

We present a method for approximating the solution of mixed integer non-concave programming problems in bounded variables. We present computational results for 39 test problems which suggest that the procedure offers a practical useful way of approximating solutions of programming problems of the type tested. We have also discovered an apparent regularity in the distribution of local optima generated by the method; the method seems to generate Beta distributions in all problems for which results are available. This suggests interesting opportunities for further exploration.
Stochastic Models of Behavior
Authors: Horvath William J.
Published: November 2008

The Management scientist must understand the various processes leading to regularities in human behavior. When man-machine combinations are involved such regularities are usually a consequence of the mechanical limitations of the machinery. Less well known but equally important are certain statistical regularities which appear in mass behavior. Recent research in the societal sciences has demonstrated behavioral regularities in such diverse fields of human endeavor as information processing, problem solving, group interactions and learning. The underlying cause behind these observed phenomena is not always obvious but can be ascribed partly to limitations in the human organism and partly to the structuring of the environment in which the behavior is observed. Whatever the theoretical basis for the observed behavior, the regularities provide the management scientist with the necessary predictability of behavior needed for his studies. Two examples of recent research in this area are discussed in this paper. One is a group formation model proposed by Coleman and James and the second is a group interaction model first studied by Bales. Both of these are representative of a broad class of models which the management scientist should be able to incorporate in his work.
Forecasting Peak Demand for an Electric Utility with a Hybrid Exponential Model
Authors: Chen Gordon K. C. , Winters Peter R.
Published: November 2008

The paper discusses forecasting peak load demand, one day in advance, for an electric utility, but its main purpose is to illustrate the combination of the exponential adaptation principle with modified rules-of-thumb being successfully used by the electric company. The results indicate that although the company is already doing a good forecasting job, the hybrid exponential model, in simplest form, does even better, although it uses only a portion of the data that is available and used by the company.
The Bond Refunding Decision as a Markov Process
Authors: Bierman Harold
Published: November 2008

Corporations that issue long-term debt are frequently faced with the opportunity to call the bonds and issue new bonds at more advantageous interest rates. When the current interest rate falls below the contractual interest rate on the outstanding debt, then computations must be made to evaluate the desirability of the refunding decision. This paper investigates the possibility of introducing the probabilities of different interest rates in the future, thus considering the desirability of postponing the refunding as well as the desirability of refunding now.

There are four basic steps in the analysis of the decision whether or not to refund a currently outstanding bond issue prior to its maturity date.These steps are:

a. the computation of the relevant cash flows (or the relevant costs),

b. the choice of the rate of discount to be used in making the analysis,

c. the treatment of uncertainty,

d. the incorporation of qualitative factors.
Commentary
Authors: Beer Stafford
Published: November 2008

Comments about Churchman, C. W., A. H. Schainblatt. 1965. The researcher and the manager: A dialectic of implementation. Management Sci. 11 (4) B-69–B-87.
Commentary
Authors: Geisler Murray A.
Published: November 2008

Comments about Churchman, C. W., A. H. Schainblatt. 1965. The researcher and the manager: A dialectic of implementation. Management Sci. 11 (4) B-69–B-87.
Commentary
Authors: Hanssmann Fred
Published: November 2008

Comments about Churchman, C. W., A. H. Schainblatt. 1965. The researcher and the manager: A dialectic of implementation. Management Sci. 11 (4) B-69–B-87. The purpose of this paper is to review various opinions and differences of opinion which have been expressed concerning that aspect of research referred to as “implementation.” We have used the term “implementation” to refer to the manner in which the results of scientific effort may come to be used by the manager. The “problem of implementation” is the problem of determining what activities of the scientist and the manager are most appropriate to bring about an effective relationship between the two.
Commentary
Authors: Alderson Wroe
Published: November 2008

Comments about Churchman, C. W., A. H. Schainblatt. 1965. The researcher and the manager: A dialectic of implementation. Management Sci. 11 (4) B-69–B-87.
Communication to the Editor—A Note on Krone's Economic Lot-Size Formulas
Authors: Parsons James A.
Published: November 2008

When many products are to be manufactured on the same production facility we can avoid product interference, and thus obtain a feasible production schedule, by requiring all products to have the same cycle time T. In this way Krone, [Krone, L. H. Jr. 1964. A note on economic lot-sizes for multipurpose equipment. Management Sci. 10 (3, April).], develops formulas for determining economic lot-sizes for multipurpose equipment. The author treats the case where backorders are permissible with a cost of backorder proportional to the length of time for which the backorder exists. The purpose of this note is to include a fixed cost of backorder into the formulas.
Is TIMS Talking to Itself?
Authors: Heany Donald F.
Published: November 2008

The thesis of this article is that a gap currently exists between “managers” on the one hand and many “scientists” doing research in and on business under the banner of Management Science. It is because of this gap that I believe TIMS is talking to itself. As long as this “TIMS gap” endures, it will be difficult for this organization to attain its stated objectives.

This TIMS gap is understandable but quite unnecessary. It is less the result of inexorable forces than the unintended by-product of an overly narrow view of management science.

This TIMS gap should be an embarrassment to an organization bearing the name of “The Institute of Management Sciences.” With such a view, a stranger might expect to find managers active in our sessions and in our councils. The facts are different. Managers are staying away in droves. They are literally repelled by what they find classified under the label “management science.” Their continual absence deprives our organization of contributions some of the founders of TIMS valued as most important.
On Nonterminating Stochastic Games
Authors: Hoffman A. J. , Karp R. M.
Published: November 2008

A stochastic game is played in a sequence of steps; at each step the play is said to be in some state i, chosen from a finite collection of states. If the play is in state i, the first player chooses move k and the second player chooses move l, then the first player receives a reward akli, and, with probability pklij, the next state is j.

The concept of stochastic games was introduced by Shapley with the proviso that, with probability 1, play terminates. The authors consider the case when play never terminates, and show properties of such games and offer a convergent algorithm for their solution. In the special case when one of the players is a dummy, the nonterminating stochastic game reduces to a Markovian decision process, and the present work can be regarded as the extension to a game theoretic context of known results on Markovian decision processes.
An Extension of a Theorem on Supports of a Convex Function
Authors: Sinha S. M.
Published: November 2008

In Eisenberg, E. 1962. Supports of a convex function. Bull. Amer. Math. Soc. 68 192–195, Eisenberg has given a characterization of the set of all supports of a convex function defined on a polyhedral convex cone. This extends the famous Farkas' Lemma and is very useful in programming problems. In this paper we will show that the result is true even for a larger class of convex functions.
A Duality Theorem for Nonlinear Programming
Authors: Sinha S. M.
Published: November 2008

One reasonable formulation of stochastic linear programming problem leads to a deterministic nonlinear programming problem where the non-linearity occurs in the objective function as the sum of square roots of positive semi-definite quadratic forms. It may, however, be difficult to solve this problem directly because of the nondifferentiability of the terms in the objective function. The present paper establishes a dual to the nonlinear programming problem of which a solution may be easily obtained. A solution of the dual then helps to obtain a solution of the original problem.
Sales Forecasting Errors and Inventory Fluctutions: Random Errors and Random Sales
Authors: Thompson Howard E.
Published: November 2008

The purpose of this paper is to study the effects of errors in the sales forecast on inventory changes and production rates. This is done by computing the ratio of the standard deviation of inventory change or production rate to the standard deviation of sales rate. By use of this ratio the effects of the average forecast error, the variance of the forecast error, and the serial correlation of sales can be studied. Both analytical method and simulation procedures are used.
The Ethics of Rational Decision
Authors: Boulding Kenneth E.
Published: November 2008

In recent years a great deal of attention has been paid by social scientists and others to the problem of the theory of decisions. The decision is a basic concept of social systems, especially in social dynamics. It represents perhaps the most important single class of events, an event being defined as a kind of step-function which separates one position of a social system from the next in point of time. Some events are not the result of human decision at all, such as aging or accidents; some are the results of previous decisions, such as depreciation of a previously created capital structure; but when all these are removed, there remains an important category of events which constitute a deliberate change in state of a social system as a result of human action.

Address presented at the 27th National Meeting of the Operations Research Society of America, Boston, Massachusetts, May 7, 1965.
The Use of Simulation as a Pedagogical Device
Authors: Porter John C. , Sasieni Maurice W. , Marks Eli S. , Ackoff Russell L.
Published: November 2008

A general simulator of production-inventory systems was developed and used in the classroom to present the student with symptoms and data rather than well-formulated problems. Students were required to analyze and diagnose the situation, formulate the problem, construct appropriate models, organize raw data, and find a solution to the problem. They were permitted to test and evaluate their solutions experimentally. In this way an effort was made to provide students with experience in all phases of operations research, not merely with mathematical exercises in constructing and solving models. The simulator, which was programmed for a computer, presented situations of increasing complexity under direction from the instructor.
Simulation of a Time-Sharing System
Authors: Fine Gerald H. , McIsaac Paul V.
Published: November 2008

This paper describes the use of simulation techniques at SDC in the analysis of time-sharing system operation. The purpose and goals of this research effort are briefly outlined and some comments on the advantages and disadvantages of direct simulation for this type of work are given. The existing simulator models are described in terms of inputs, general flow, and outputs; and the results of initial investigations with these models are given. Work currently in progress is discussed, and some related problems that may possibly be studied in the future by similar methods are noted.
Selecting Delivery Dates in the Tanker Scheduling Problem
Authors: Briskin Lawrence E.
Published: November 2008

When scheduling tankers, it is necessary to determine delivery dates. If multi-port discharges are permitted it is also necessary to determine the proper volumes to be discharged at each port on a given voyage. This paper presents a means of determining a program of delivery dates and volumes for multi-port discharges which may be used in conjunction with an existing routing schema.
An Application of Heuristic Problem Solving to Accounts Receivable Management
Authors: Levy Ferdinand K.
Published: November 2008

The paper describes a very apparent application of heuristic problem solving to accounts receivable management, namely in the location of lock-boxes. Lock-boxes are post office boxes selected in a company's distribution area in order to minimize the time necessary for the company to collect and to have available the funds remitted by its customers in payment of their obligations. The paper starts with a statement of and solution to the problem of measuring a given set of locations. Next the difficulties with the formulation are pointed out and a heuristic program to reach a satisfactory solution is described. The program is written in FORTRAN IV and is currently being tested.
An Economic Model for the Division of Labor
Authors: Kilbridge Maurice , Wester Leon
Published: November 2008

The division of labor in assembly is facilitated by the conveyor line. Workers are stationed along the line on which the frame of the product being assembled moves. The total job is broken into elements of work and assigned in approximately equal shares to the workers on the line. Each operator adds his share of work as the product passes him. The measure of the division of labor is the amount of time the product spends at each operator's work station. This period is commonly called the “cycle time.” The problem of the economic extent of the division of labor is to determine the optimum cycle time, or that which yields the lowest unit direct labor cost of assembly.
Some Factors Involved in Determining Total Decision Success
Authors: Trull Samuel G.
Published: November 2008

Currently there is a trend toward attempting to understand the mechanics involved in heuristic decisions, or decisions where the lack of a measure or index of effectiveness, coupled with a surfeit of alternatives and an absence of reliable probabilities associated with decision variables, leads to an open or non-computable decision process.

In an attempt to obtain more information about successful decision-making processes, an investigation was made of 100 case examples drawn from five general areas: (1) Industrial (sales, personnel, production, and financial), (2) Military, (3) Medical, (4) Political, and (5) Commercial.

Examination of the cases showed that although the decision process was not explicit, a certain clustering of key variables appeared as a common feature of the decision-reaching process. These variables seemed to influence the success of the decision in a causal fashion. This was particularly in evidence when these clusters were analyzed in the broader framework of their impact upon the total system and effect upon decision success.

One cluster of variables was found to surround the quality of the decision itself. These included Compatibility with Existing Operating Constraints, Nearness to Optimum Time for Decision related to Proximity to Optimum Amount of Infornaation, and the Problem Solver's Infiuence on the Decision. The second major factor, implementation of the decision, was affected by Avoidance of Confiict of Interests, Reward-Risk Factors, and the Degree of Understanding Achieved.

Total decision success was found to be achieved through the effective usage of the variables of decision quality enforced through skillful management of the variables of implementation. E.g., total decision success equals decision quality plus implementation.

Within the 100 cases taken under study, there are several areas that are common to the decision-reaching process in general. By identifying what seem to be the critical stages and elements in decision-reaching, the process itself becomes more amenable to a complete and systematic analysis.

Decision-reaching, varying from traditional decision-making, is subjective by nature and includes a high degree of uncertainty. It involves a unique program for the decision process with little or no duplication and with interrelated variables of shifting weight functions. The result is obtained through successive interacting steps which, when completed, allow the ultimate determination. The term—decision-reaching rather than word coinage, should be useful in the delineation of a specific process, setting aside a specific area for future research.
A Min-Max Inventory Model
Authors: Agin Norman
Published: November 2008

An inventory model is considered where every N periods an order is placed for an amount which brings the sum of stock-on-hand plus on-order up to some level S. The model treats a single item for which there is random demand. Demands that arrive when there is no positive inventory on hand are back-ordered. Leadtime is treated as random and the receipts of orders are allowed to cross in time.

Values N* and S* which minimize steady state expected costs per unit time cannot be found. In this paper approximations, N0 and S0 are found. These are determined by minimizing an expected cost per unit time which has been maximized over all distributions of stock deficit with a given mean and variance. The method is applicable even when the functional form of the distribution of demand is not known. Computer simulations are used to indicate the values of the input parameters for which the expected costs per unit time associated with N0 and S0 are close to the similar quantities for N* and S*.
An Extension of the Gomory Mixed-Integer Algorithm to Mixed-Discrete Variables
Authors: Dalton Robert E. , Llewellyn Robert W.
Published: November 2008

The methods of R. E. Gomory for the iterative solution of the mixed-integer linear programming problem are extended directly to the case where some or all of the variables are nonuniformly discrete, i.e., they are restricted to assume values from certain specified sets of unequally-spaced constants. The algorithm presented is shown to converge in a finite number of steps for a discrete-valued objective function.
An Algorithm for the Solution of Mixed Integer Programming Problems
Authors: Driebeek Norman J.
Published: November 2008

An algorithm is presented for the solution of mixed integer programming problems. The method was developed to solve primarily those programming problems which contain a large number of continuous variables in addition to a few variables that are restricted to discrete values. The algorithm solves a continuous, non-integer constrained problem first. Subsequently, a search for the optimum integer solution is made on the basis of those changes in the value of the objective function that are produced by activating integer constraints.
Techniques for Removing Nonbinding Constraints and Extraneous Variables from Linear Programming Problems
Authors: Thompson Gerald L. , Tonge Fred M. , Zionts Stanley
Published: November 2008

In formulating linear programming problems, analysts tend to include constraints that are not binding at the optimal solution for fear of excluding necessary constraints. The inclusion of such constraints does not alter the optimum solutions, but may require many additional iterations to be taken, as well as increase the computational difficulties encountered.

Most of the methods proposed to date for identification of redundant and non-binding constraints are not warranted in practice because of the excessive computations required to implement them. These methods are reviewed in the present paper, and some of them are extended. A number of additional methods are also considered. Two of these new methods are not only practical, but have proven to be powerful in solving a number of problems. These methods may be incorporated in a variant of the simplex method. After each simplex iteration is made, constraints and variables are tested and, when identified as non-binding, are eliminated. The procedure is continued, with the problem size dwindling as the algorithm progresses, until the optimum is reached. Then the values of the eliminated variables are computed by substitution into the eliminated constraints. Early evidence shows that a size reduction for small problems (having 25-30 constraints) of 50 percent is not unusual. It is hoped that the results on larger problems will be even more significant.
On Some Properties of Programming Problems in Parametric form Pertaining to Fractional Programming
Authors: Jagannathan R.
Published: November 2008

This paper presents results which apply to convex programming problem in parametric form. The results secured are also related to the problem of fractional programming in a way which indicates computational possibilities for the latter class of problems. The results are extended to general non-linear programming problems with special reference to continuous criterion functions. As a particular case, the linear fractional programming problem is considered and, in conclusion, the results secured here are pointed up by reference to existing algorithms for the latter class of problems.