bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
High resolution snow distribution data from complex Arctic terrain: a tool for model validation
Authors: Jaedicke Ch. , Sandvik A. D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Blowing snow and snow drifts are common features in the Arctic. Due to sparse vegetation, low temperatures and high wind speeds, the snow is constantly moving. This causes severe problems for transportation and infrastructure in the affected areas. To minimise the effect of drifting snow already in the designing phase of new structures, adequate models have to be developed and tested. In this study, snow distribution in Arctic topography is surveyed in two study areas during the spring of 1999 and 2000. Snow depth is measured by ground penetrating radar and manual methods. The study areas encompass four by four kilometres and are partly glaciated. The results of the surveys show a clear pattern of erosion, accumulation areas and the evolution of the snow cover over time. This high resolution data set is valuable for the validation of numerical models. A simple numerical snow drift model was used to simulate the measured snow distribution in one of the areas for the winter of 1998/1999. The model is a two-level drift model coupled to the wind field, generated by a mesoscale meteorological model. The simulations are based on five wind fields from the dominating wind directions. The model produces a satisfying snow distribution but fails to reproduce the details of the observed snow cover. The results clearly demonstrate the importance of quality field data to detect and analyse errors in numerical simulations.
A new method for avalanche hazard mapping using a combination of statistical and deterministic models
Authors: Barbolini M. , Keylock C. J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The purpose of the present paper is to propose a new method for avalanche hazard mapping using a combination of statistical and deterministic modelling tools. The methodology is based on frequency-weighted impact pressure, and uses an avalanche dynamics model embedded within a statistical framework. The outlined procedure provides a useful way for avalanche experts to produce hazard maps for the typical case of avalanche sites where historical records are either poorly documented or even completely lacking, as well as to derive confidence limits on the proposed zoning. The methodology is implemented using avalanche information from Iceland and the Swiss mapping criteria, and applied to an Icelandic real world avalanche-mapping problem.
Sensitivity of the adjoint method in the inversion of tsunami source parameters
Authors: Pires C. , Miranda P. M. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper tests a methodology for tsunami wave-form inversion, based on the adjoint method. The method is designed to perform the direct optimization of the tsunami fault parameters, from tide-gauge data, imposing strong geophysical constrains to the inverted solutions, leading to a substantial enhancement of the signal-to-noise ratio, when compared with the classical technique based on Green’s functions of the linear long-wave model. A 4-step inversion proce-dure, which can be fully automated, consists (i) in the source area delimitation by adjoint backward ray-tracing, (ii) ad-joint optimization of the initial sea state, from a vanishing first-guess, (iii) non-linear adjustment of the fault model and (iv) final adjoint optimization in the fault parameter space. That methodology is systematically tested with four different idealized bathymetry and coastline setups (flat bathymetry in an open domain, closed conical circular lake, islands in an open domain and submarine mountains in an open domain) and different amounts of synthetic observation data, and of observational and bathymetric errors. Results show that the method works well in the presence of reasonable amounts of error and it provides, as a by-product, a resolution matrix that contains information on the inversion error, identifying the combinations of source parameters that are best and worst resolved by the inversion
Tsunami excitation by inland/coastal earthquakes: the Green function approach
Authors: Yanovskaya T. B. , Romanelli F. , Panza G. F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the framework of the linear theory, the representation theorem is derived for an incompressible liquid layer with a boundary of arbitrary shape and in a homogeneous gravity field. In addition, the asymptotic representation for the Green function, in a layer of constant thickness is obtained. The validity of the approach for the calculation of the tsunami wavefield based on the Green function technique is verified comparing the results with those obtained from the modal theory, for a liquid layer of infinite horizontal dimensions. The Green function approach is preferable for the estimation of the excitation spectra, since in the case of an infinite liquid layer it leads to simple analytical expressions. From this analysis it is easy to describe the peculiarities of tsunami excitation by different sources. The method is extended to the excitation of tsunami in a semiinfinite layer with a sloping boundary. Numerical modelling of the tsunami wavefield, excited by point sources at different distances from the coastline, shows that when the source is located at a distance from the coastline equal or larger than the source depth, the shore presence does not affect the excitation of the tsunami. When the source is moved towards thecoastline, the low frequency content in the excitation spectrum ecreases, while the high frequencies content increases dramatically. The maximum of the excitation spectra from inland sources, located at a distance from the shore like the source depth, becomes less than 10% of that radiated if the same source is located in the open ocean. The effect of the finiteness of the source is also studied and the excitation spectrum is obtained by integration over the fault area. Numerical modelling of the excitation spectra for different source models shows that, for a given seismic moment, the spectral level, as well as the maximum value of the spectra, decreases with increasing fault size. When the sources are located in the vicinity of a shore, the synthetic mareograms calculated at distances greater than the source depth show that the maximum tsunami amplitude decays with decreasing source-to-shore distance. The rate of decay is dependent on the dip, length and depth of the fault. The tsunami intensity, defined as maximum peak-to-peak amplitude, decays with the inland distance of the source from the coast. At an inland distance equal to the source depth, it becomes 4–5 times less than that from a source in the open ocean. If the source is located under the coastline, the intensity of tsunami is approximately the same as for oceanic sources.
Assessing tsunami vulnerability, an example from Herakleio, Crete
Authors: Papathoma M. , Dominey-Howes D. , Zong Y. , Smith D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Recent tsunami have caused massive loss of life, destruction of coastal infrastructures and disruption to economic activity. To date, tsunami hazard studies have concentrated on determining the frequency and magnitude of events and in the production of simplistic flood maps. In general, such maps appear to have assumed a uniform vulnerability of population, infrastructure and business. In reality however, a complex set of factors interact to produce a pattern of vulnerability that varies spatially and temporally. A new vulnerability assessment approach is described, that incorporates multiple factors (e.g. parameters relating to the natural and built environments and socio-demographics) that contribute to tsunami vulnerability. The new methodology is applied on a coastal segment in Greece and, in particular, in Crete, westof the city of Herakleio. The results are presented within a Geographic Information System (GIS). The application of GIS ensures the approach is novel for tsunami studies, since it permits interrogation of the primary database by several different end-users. For example, the GIS may be used: (1) to determine immediate post-tsunami disaster response needs by the emergency services; (2) to preplan tsunami mitigation measures by disaster planners; (3) as a tool for local planning by the municipal authorities or; (4) as a basis for catastrophe modelling by insurance companies. We show that population density varies markedly with the time of the year and that 30% of buildings within the inundation zone are only single story thus increasing the vulnerability of their occupants. Within the high inundation depth zone, 11% of buildings are identified as in need of reinforcement and this figure rises to 50% within the medium inundation depth zone. 10% of businesses are located within the high inundation depth zone and these may need to consider their level of insurance cover to protect against primary building damage, contents loss and business interruption losses.
Quantitative risk analysis for landslides ‒ Examples from Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland
Authors: Bell R. , Glade T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Although various methods to carry out quantitative landslide risk analyses are available, applications are still rare and mostly dependent on the occurrence of disasters. In Iceland, two catastrophic snow avalanches killed 34 people in 1995. As a consequence the Ministry of the Environment issued a new regulation on hazard zoning due to snow avalanches and landslides in 2000, which aims to prevent people living or working within the areas most at risk until 2010. The regulation requires to carry out landslide and snow avalanche risk analyses, however, a method to calculate landslide risk adopted to Icelandic conditions is still missing. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to develop such a method for landslides, focussing on debris flows and rock falls and to test it in Bíldudalur, NW-Iceland. Risk analysis, beside risk evaluation and risk management, is part of the holistic concept of risk assessment. Within this study, risk analysis is considered only, focussing on the risks to life. To calculate landslide risk, the spatial and temporal probability of occurrence of potential damaging events, as well as the distribution of the elements at risk in space and time, considering also changing vulnerabilities, must be determined. Within this study, a new raster-based approach is developed. Thus, all existent vector data are transferred into raster data using a resolution of 1m x 1m. The specific attribute data are attributed to the grid cells, resulting in specific raster data layers for each input parameter. The calculation of the landslide risk follows a function of the input parameters hazard, damage potential of the elements at risk, vulnerability, probability of the spatial impact, probability of the temporal impact and probability of the seasonal occurrence. Finally, results are upscaled to a resolution of 20m x 20m and are presented as individual risk to life and object risk to life for each process. Within the quantitative landslide risk analysis the associated uncertainties are estimated qualitatively. In the study area the highest risks throughout all of the analyses (individual risk to life and object risk to life) are caused by debris flows, followed by rock falls, showing that risk heavily varies depending on the process considered. The resultant maps show areas, in which the individual risk to life exceeds the acceptable risk (defined in the aforementioned regulation), so that for these locations risk reduction measures should be developed and implemented. It can be concluded that the newly developed method works satisfactory and is applicable to further catchments in Iceland, and potentially to further countries with different environmental settings.
Information system on hydrological and geomorphological catastrophes in Italy (SICI): a tool for managing landslide and flood hazards
Authors: Guzzetti F. , Tonelli G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Since 1990, we have maintained a database of historical information on landslides and floods in Italy, known as the National Research Council's AVI (Damaged Urban Areas) archive. The database was originally designed to respond to a request of the Minister of Civil Protection, and was aimed at helping the regional assessment of landslide and flood risk in Italy. The database was compiled in 1991-1992 to cover the period 1917 to 1990, and then updated to cover systematically the period 1917 to 2000, and non-systematically the periods 1900 to 1916 and 2001 to 2002. The database currently contains information on more than 32000 landslide events occurred at more than 21000 sites, and on more than 29000 flood events occurred at more than 14000 sites. Independently from the AVI archive, we have obtained other databases containing information on damage caused by mass movements and inundations, daily discharge measurements and solid-transport measurements at selected gauging stations, bibliographical and reference information on landslides and inundations, and a catalogue of National legislation on hydrological and geological hazards and risk in Italy. The databases are part of an information system known as SICI (an Italian acronym for Sistema Informativo sulle Catastrofi Idrogeologiche, Information System on Hydrological and Geomorphological Catastrophes), which is currently the largest single repository of historical information on landslides and floods in Italy. After an outline of the history and evolution of the AVI Project archive, we present and discuss: (a) the structure of the SICI information system, including the hardware and software solutions adopted to maintain, manage, update, use and disseminate the information stored in the various databases, (b) the type and amount of information stored in each database, including an estimate of their completeness, and (c) examples of recent applications of the information system, including a web-based GIS system to show the location of sites historically affected by landslides and floods, and an estimate of geo-hydrological (i.e. landslide and flood) risk in Italy based on the available historical information.
Establishment of IDF-curves for precipitation in the tropical area of Central Africa - comparison of techniques and results
Authors: Mohymont B. , Demarée G. R. , Faka D. N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The establishment of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for precipitation remains a powerful tool in the risk analysis of natural hazards. Indeed the IDF-curves allow for the estimation of the return period of an observed rainfall event or conversely of the rainfall amount corresponding to a given return period for different aggregation times. There is a high need for IDF-curves in the tropical region of Central Africa but unfortunately the adequate long-term data sets are frequently not available. The present paper assesses IDF-curves for precipitation for three stations in Central Africa. More physically based models for the IDF-curves are proposed. The methodology used here has been advanced by Koutsoyiannis et al. (1998) and an inter-station and inter-technique comparison is being carried out. The IDF-curves for tropical Central Africa are an interesting tool to be used in sewer system design to combat the frequently occurring inundations in semi-urbanized and urbanized areas of the Kinshasa megapolis.
Tectonic sources of caucasus strong earthquakes
Authors: Kachakhidze M. , Kachakhidze N. , Kiladze R. , Kukhianidze V. , Ramishvili G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The method called "phase cone" is developed in order to define the location, time of arising and velocity of the earthquakes initiating the low-speed interference stress waves. From the data of the strong earthquakes with M≥6.0 in Caucasus region during 1900-1992, the immigrators or tectonic sources of low-speed waves were revealed, interference nodes of which had initiated 19 earthquakes out of total 33. The time of arising of low-speed stress waves or periods of awaking of tectonic sources is defined. The velocities of constant initiative waves for all events were calculated. Its average value is equal to 2.97km per year.
Correlation analysis technique revealing ionospheric precursors of earthquakes
Authors: Pulinets S. A. , Gaivoronska T. B. , Leyva Contreras A. , Ciraolo L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper we focus on the variability of electron concentration in the ionosphere measured by ground based ionosondes and GPS receivers around the time of strong earthquakes. It has been detected and statistically proven that several days before the seismic shock the level of this variability increases at the station closest to the epicenter, a fact which can be regarded as precursory phenomenon. More precisely the localness of this specific kind of ionospheric variability is used for the correlation analysis of data of several observation points. The similarity of geographical location of the observation points leads to the similarity of ionospheric variations registered at these sites during both quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions, except in the case of those located at the seismoactive zone. As a rule, the local anomalies in the F2 layer and TEC accompanying the preparation of strong earthquakes show themselves in the breaking of the mutual correlation of the critical frequencies foF2 or TEC between stations situated in and outside the seismic zone. The precursory phenomenon appears 1 to 7 days before the time of the seismic shock.
Flood loss reduction of private households due to building precautionary measures – lessons learned from the Elbe flood in August 2002
Authors: Kreibich H. , Thieken A. H. , Petrow Th. , Müller M. , Merz B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Building houses in inundation areas is always a risk, since absolute flood protection is impossible. Where settlements already exist, flood damage must be kept as small as possible. Suitable means are precautionary measures such as elevated building configuration or flood adapted use. However, data about the effects of such measures are rare, and consequently, the efficiency of different precautionary measures is unclear. To improve the knowledge about efficient precautionary measures, approximately 1200 private households, which were affected by the 2002 flood at the river Elbe and its tributaries, were interviewed about the flood damage of their buildings and contents as well as about their precautionary measures. The affected households had little flood experience, i.e. only 15% had experienced a flood before. 59% of the households stated that they did not know, that they live in a flood prone area. Thus, people were not well prepared, e.g. just 11% had used and furnished their house in a flood adapted way and only 6% had a flood adapted building structure. Building precautionary measures are mainly effective in areas with frequent small floods. But also during the extreme flood event in 2002 building measures reduced the flood loss. From the six different building precautionary measures under study, flood adapted use and adapted interior fitting were the most effective ones. They reduced the damage ratio for buildings by 46% and 53%, respectively. The damage ratio for contents was reduced by 48% due to flood adapted use and by 53% due to flood adapted interior fitting. The 2002 flood motivated a relatively large number of people to implement private precautionary measures, but still much more could be done. Hence, to further reduce flood losses, people's motivation to invest in precaution should be improved. More information campaigns and financial incentives should be issued to encourage precautionary measures.
The 2002 rock/ice avalanche at Kolka/Karmadon, Russian Caucasus: assessment of extraordinary avalanche formation and mobility, and application of QuickBird satellite imagery
Authors: Huggel C. , Zgraggen-Oswald S. , Haeberli W. , Kääb A. , Polkvoj A. , Galushkin I. , Evans S. G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A massive rock/ice avalanche of about 100x106m3 volume took place on the northern slope of the Kazbek massif, North Ossetia, Russian Caucasus, on 20 September 2002. The avalanche started as a slope failure, that almost completely entrained Kolka glacier, traveled down the Genaldon valley for 20km, was stopped at the entrance of the Karmadon gorge, and was finally succeeded by a distal mudflow which continued for another 15km. The event caused the death of ca. 140 people and massive destruction. Several aspects of the event are extraordinary, i.e. the large ice volume involved, the extreme initial acceleration, the high flow velocity, the long travel distance and particularly the erosion of a valley-type glacier, a process not known so far. The analysis of these aspects is essential for process understanding and worldwide glacial hazard assessments. This study is therefore concerned with the analysis of processes and the evaluation of the most likely interpretations. The analysis is based on QuickBird satellite images, field observations, and ice-, flow- and thermo-mechanical considerations. QuickBird is currently the best available satellite sensor in terms of ground resolution (0.6 m) and opens new perspectives for assessment of natural hazards. Evaluation of the potential of QuickBird images for assessment of high-mountain hazards shows the feasibility for detailed avalanche mapping and analysis of flow dynamics, far beyond the capabilities of conventional satellite remote sensing. It is shown that the avalanche was characterized by two different flows. The first one was comparable to a hyperconcentrated flow and was immediately followed by a flow with a much lower concentration of water involving massive volumes of ice. The high mobility of the avalanche is likely related to fluidization effects at the base of the moving ice/debris mass with high pore pressures and a continuous supply of water due to frictional melting of ice. The paper concludes with implications of the Kolka/Karmadon event for worldwide glacial hazard assessments. It is emphasized that situations with large glacierized high-mountain walls with potentially unstable glaciers within impact distance need special attention and monitoring efforts.
Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation
Authors: Zischg A. , Fuchs S. , Keiler M. , Stötter J.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.
Morphometry and kinematics of landslides inferred from precise DTMs in West Belgium
Authors: Dewitte O. , Demoulin A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Flemish Ardennes (W Belgium) are known to be affected by deep-seated landslides. The assessment of the landslide reactivation hazard requires understanding the driving processes and delimiting precisely not only the landslide boundaries but especially that of their most active parts. Precise 3D models of 13 landslides were produced by digital stereophotogrammetry using aerial photographs of different dates. Dealing with photographs at the scale 1:25000 or larger, we obtained for each model an accuracy better than 0.5m. As a first result, the main size parameters of the landslides (width, length, depth, volume, ...) are easily computed. Moreover, the obtained DTMs may be subtracted from each other in order to determine the apparent vertical displacement of each pixel during the interval of time considered. Provided that more than 2 epochs are documented, such DTMs not only supply precise information about distribution and style of the landslide activity but may also point to temporal variations in this activity. The subtraction of DTMs allows us to give an estimation of the volume of the "uplifted" and "collapsed" terrains between two epochs.
Numerical analysis of deep-seated mass movements in the Magura Nappe; Flysch Belt of the Western Carpathians (Czech Republic)
Authors: Baron I. , Agliardi F. , Ambrosi C. , Crosta G. B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Deep-seated slope failures are common features in the mountains of the Raca Unit, Magura Nappe of the Flysch Belt of Western Carpathians. Since they represent very complicated system, understanding of their evolution and triggers still remains unclear. We tried to provide a back-analysis of their development by using a finite difference code (FDM) of continua (Flac 4.0). We confirmed that such large mass movements could be triggered by water saturation of the bedrock in the three particular geological and geomorphic settings. Such situation could have been caused by heavy rainfalls in humid phases of the Holocene or permafrost melting in Late Glacial. The effects of faulting, very deep weathering of the bedrock, low geotechnical parameters of smectite-rich material and the local slope geometry have also been accounted for in numerical models, as well as the other triggering factors of slope instability. FDM modelled shear zones are in agreement with observations.
Economic assessment of landslide risks in the Swabian Alb, Germany ‒ research framework and first results of homeowners' and experts' surveys
Authors: Blöchl A. , Braun B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Landslide risks are frequently underestimated by political and economic actors as well as by the local population. The InterRisk Assess research project is working to develop a systematic approach to the analysis and evaluation of economic landslide risks at a local and regional scale. Its major aims are to determine the extent of potential damage and economic losses caused by landslides, to analyze individual and collective patterns of risk assessment and to develop recommendations for pro-active risk management. The research methodology includes GIS-based risk analyses and interviews with relevant actors in politics, administration and planning, private households and land owners. The research findings will facilitate a better-informed, efficient and sustainable use of natural resources and natural risks. The research project also aims to contribute to methodological progress in risk research.
Residential building and occupant vulnerability to tephra fall
Authors: Spence R. J. S. , Kelman I. , Baxter P. J. , Zuccaro G. , Petrazzuoli S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Plinian and subplinian volcanic eruptions can be accompanied by tephra falls which may last hours or days, posing threats to people, buildings and economic activity. Numerous historical examples exist of tephra damage and tephra casualties. The mechanisms and consequences of roof collapse from static tephra load are an important area of tephra damage requiring more research. This paper contributes to this work by estimating the structural vulnerability of buildings to tephra load based on both analytical studies and observed damage. New studies are presented of roof strengths in the area around Mt. Vesuvius in southern Italy and of field surveys undertaken in other European volcanic locations to assess building vulnerability to tephra fall. The results are a proposed set of new European tephra fall roof vulnerability curves in areas potentially threatened by explosive volcanic eruptions along with comments on the human casualty implications of roof collapse under tephra loading. Some mitigation recommendations are provided.
Perception of intense precipitation events by public opinion
Authors: Delitala A. M. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A survey of four years of local newspapers over the island of Sardinia was conducted. Articles were compared against meteorological observations in order to understand how efficiently intense precipitation events are perceived. The comparison showed that, on a wide and heterogeneous area, public opinion perceives correctly 44% of events and its perception is unbiased. If, however, the focus is placed upon urban areas, the ability to perceive grows to 66%, but an "overperception" of 33% arises. If focus is finally placed upon rural areas, skills worsen, several events are missed and a significant negative bias is detected.
On the possible influence of radon and aerosol injection on the atmosphere and ionosphere before earthquakes
Authors: Liperovsky V. A. , Meister C.-V. , Liperovskaya E. V. , Davidov V. F. , Bogdanov V. V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A model of the generation of pulses of local electric fields with characteristic time scales of 1–10 min is considered for atmospheric conditions above fracture regions of earthquakes. In the model, it is proposed that aerosols, increased ionization velocity and upstreaming air flows occur at night-time conditions. The pulses of local electric fields cause respective pulses of infrared emissions. But infrared emissions with time scales of 1–10 min were not observed up to now experimentally. The authors think, that the considered non-stationary field and radiation effects might be a new-type of applicable earthquake indicators and ask to perform special earth-based and satellite observations of the night-time atmosphere in seismoactive fracture regions.
Seismic detection and characterization of landslides and other mass movements
Authors: Suriñach E. , Vilajosana I. , Khazaradze G. , Biescas B. , Furdada G. , Vilaplana J. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Seismic methods used in the study of snow avalanches may be employed to detect and characterize landslides and other mass movements, using standard spectrogram/sonogram analysis. For snow avalanches, the spectrogram for a station that is approached by a sliding mass exhibits a triangular time/frequency signature due to an increase over time in the higher-frequency constituents. Recognition of this characteristic footprint in a spectrogram suggests a useful metric for identifying other mass-movement events such as landslides. The 1 June 2005 slide at Laguna Beach, California is examined using data obtained from the Caltech/USGS Regional Seismic Network. This event exhibits the same general spectrogram features observed in studies of Alpine snow avalanches. We propose that these features are due to the systematic relative increase in high-frequency energy transmitted to a seismometer in the path of a mass slide owing to a reduction of distance from the source signal. This phenomenon is related to the path of the waves whose high frequencies are less attenuated as they traverse shorter source-receiver paths. Entrainment of material in the course of the slide may also contribute to the triangular time/frequency signature as a consequence of the increase in the energy involved in the process; in this case the contribution would be a source effect. By applying this commonly observed characteristic to routine monitoring algorithms, along with custom adjustments for local site effects, we seek to contribute to the improvement in automatic detection and monitoring methods of landslides and other mass movements.
Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads
Authors: Zischg A. , Fuchs S. , Keiler M. , Meißl G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.
Validation of Digital Elevation Models around Merapi Volcano, Java, Indonesia
Authors: Gerstenecker C. , Läufer G. , Steineck D. , Tiede C. , Wrobel B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The accuracy of 4 Digital Elevation Models (SRTM30, GTOPO30, SRTM3 and local DEM produced from aerial photogrammetric images) for the volcanoes Merapi and Merbabu in Java, Indonesia is investigated by comparison with 443 GPS ground control points. The study confirms the high accuracy of SRTM3 and SRTM30, even if the a priori defined 90% confidence level of 16 m for the SRTM3 is not always achieved in this mountainous region. Accuracy of SRTM30, GTOPO30 and SRTM3 is mainly dependent on the altitude itself and the slopes' inclinations, whereas the photogrammetric DEM exhibits constant accuracy over a wide range of altitudes and slopes. For SRTM3 and SRTM30 a statistically significant correlation between heights and aspects of the slopes is also found. Accuracy of DEMs which are generated by interpolation on a finer grid does not change significantly. Smoothing of DEMs on a coarser grid, however, decreases accuracy. The decrease in accuracy is again dependent on altitude and slope inclination. The comparison of SRTM30 with GTOPO30 exhibits a significant improvement of SRTM30 data.
Regionalisation of asset values for risk analyses
Authors: Thieken A. H. , Müller M. , Kleist L. , Seifert I. , Borst D. , Werner U.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In risk analysis there is a spatial mismatch of hazard data that are commonly modelled on an explicit raster level and exposure data that are often only available for aggregated units, e.g. communities. Dasymetric mapping techniques that use ancillary information to disaggregate data within a spatial unit help to bridge this gap. This paper presents dasymetric maps showing the population density and a unit value of residential assets for whole Germany. A dasymetric mapping approach, which uses land cover data (CORINE Land Cover) as ancillary variable, was adapted and applied to regionalize aggregated census data that are provided for all communities in Germany. The results were validated by two approaches. First, it was ascertained whether population data disaggregated at the community level can be used to estimate population in postcodes. Secondly, disaggregated population and asset data were used for a loss evaluation of two flood events that occurred in 1999 and 2002, respectively. It must be concluded that the algorithm tends to underestimate the population in urban areas and to overestimate population in other land cover classes. Nevertheless, flood loss evaluations demonstrate that the approach is capable of providing realistic estimates of the number of exposed people and assets. Thus, the maps are sufficient for applications in large-scale risk assessments such as the estimation of population and assets exposed to natural and man-made hazards.
Geomorphological mapping and geophysical profiling for the evaluation of natural hazards in an alpine catchment
Authors: Seijmonsbergen A. C. , de Graaff L. W. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Liechtenstein has faced an increasing number of natural hazards over recent decades: debris flows, slides, snow avalanches and floods repeatedly endanger the local infrastructure. Geomorphological field mapping and geo-electrical profiling was used to assess hazards near Malbun, a village potentially endangered by landslides, and especially debris flows. The area is located on the tectonic contacts of four different nappe slices. The bedrock consists of anhydrite and gypsum, dolomite, shale, marl, and limestone. The spatial distribution and occurrence of debris flows and slides is evaluated through a combination of geomorphological expert knowledge, and detailed visualization in a geographical information system. In a geo-database a symbol-based 1:3000 scale geomorphological map has been digitized and rectified into polygons. The polygons include information on the main geomorphological environment, the Quaternary material distribution and of geomorphological processes, which are stored in attribute tables. The spatial distribution of these attributes is then combined with geophysical information and displacement rates interpolated from benchmark measurements. On one of the landslides two geo-electrical profiles show that the distance to a potential failure plane varies between 10-20 m and that the topography of the failure plane is influenced by subterranean gypsum karst features. The displacement measurements show that this landslide actively disintegrates into minor slides and is not, therefore, a risk to the village of Malbun. The hazard zonation indicates that debris flows can pose a risk if no countermeasures are taken. Gypsum karst may locally accelerate the landslide activity. In contrast, the impact of debris flows is diminished because collapse dolines may act as sediment traps for the debris flow materials. This research illustrates how geomorphological expert knowledge can be integrated in a GIS for the evaluation of natural hazards on a detailed scale.
Karst flash floods: an example from the Dinaric karst (Croatia)
Authors: Bonacci O. , Ljubenkov I. , Roje-Bonacci T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Flash floods constitute one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters worldwide. This paper explains the karst flash flood phenomenon, which represents a special kind of flash flood. As the majority of flash floods karst flash floods are caused by intensive short-term precipitation in an area whose surface rarely exceeds a few square kilometres. The characteristics of all flash floods are their short duration, small areal extent, high flood peaks and rapid flows, and heavy loss of life and property. Karst flash floods have specific characteristics due to special conditions for water circulation, which exist in karst terrains. During karst flash floods a sudden rise of groundwater levels occurs, which causes the appearance of numerous, unexpected, abundant and temporary karst springs. This paper presents in detail an example of a karst flash flood in the Marina bay (Dinaric karst region of Croatia), which occurred in December 2004.
Chemical and mineralogical heterogeneities of weathered igneous profiles: implications for landslide investigations
Authors: Duzgoren-Aydin N. S. , Aydin A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Landslides in tropical and sub-tropical regions are generally associated with weathered rock profiles which often possess chemical and mineralogical heterogeneities at material- and mineral-scales. Such heterogeneities reach a climax by the occurrences of oxyhydroxide- and clay-rich zones. Weakness and low permeability of these zones makes them ideal for the development of slip zones along which landslides take place. This paper describes the nature and distribution of chemical and mineralogical heterogeneities within weathered profiles developed from felsic igneous rocks in Hong Kong. It sets out the use of integrated geochemical and mineralogical studies to improve understanding of the development of critical heterogeneities and hence to predict their types and presence in a given weathered profile.
Quantitative analysis of X-band weather radar attenuation correction accuracy
Authors: Berne A. , Uijlenhoet R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. At short wavelengths, especially C-, X-, and K-band, weather radar signals are attenuated by the precipitation along their paths. This constitutes a major source of error for radar rainfall estimation, in particular for intense precipitation. A recently developed stochastic simulator of range profiles of raindrop size distributions (DSD) provides a controlled experiment framework to investigate the accuracy and robustness of attenuation correction algorithms. The work presented here focuses on the quantification of the influence of uncertainties concerning radar calibration, the parameterization of power law relations between the integral variables (radar reflectivity Z and specific attenuation k), and total path integrated attenuation (PIA) estimates at X-band. The analysis concerns single frequency, incoherent and non-polarimetric radar systems. Two attenuation correction algorithms, based on a forward and a backward implementation respectively, are studied. From DSD range profiles, the corresponding profiles of integral radar variables are derived. Using a Monte Carlo approach, the accuracy and robustness of the two algorithms are quantified for the different sources of error previously mentioned. This framework of realistic DSD variability provides a robust way to confirm that, under realistic assumptions concerning the PIA estimation uncertainty, the forward algorithm outperforms the backward algorithm for PIA values below 10 dB.
Rainfall rate retrieval in presence of path attenuation using C-band polarimetric weather radars
Authors: Vulpiani G. , Marzano F. S. , Chandrasekar V. , Berne A. , Uijlenhoet R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Weather radar systems are very suitable tools for the monitoring of extreme rainfall events providing measurements with high spatial and temporal resolution over a wide geographical area. Nevertheless, radar rainfall retrieval at C-band is prone to several error sources, such as rain path attenuation which affects the accuracy of inversion algorithms. In this paper, the so-called rain profiling techniques (namely the surface reference method FV and the polarimetric method ZPHI) are applied to correct rain path attenuation and a new neural network algorithm is proposed to estimate the rain rate from the corrected measurements of reflectivity and differential reflectivity. A stochastic model, based on disdrometer measurements, is used to generate realistic range profiles of raindrop size distribution parameters while a T-matrix solution technique is adopted to compute the corresponding polarimetric variables. A sensitivity analysis is performed in order to evaluate the expected errors of these methods. It has been found that the ZPHI method is more reliable than FV, being less sensitive to calibration errors. Moreover, the proposed neural network algorithm has shown more accurate rain rate estimates than the corresponding parametric algorithm, especially in presence of calibration errors.
Flood-risk mapping: contributions towards an enhanced assessment of extreme events and associated risks
Authors: Büchele B. , Kreibich H. , Kron A. , Thieken A. , Ihringer J. , Oberle P. , Merz B. , Nestmann F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Currently, a shift from classical flood protection as engineering task towards integrated flood risk management concepts can be observed. In this context, a more consequent consideration of extreme events which exceed the design event of flood protection structures and failure scenarios such as dike breaches have to be investigated. Therefore, this study aims to enhance existing methods for hazard and risk assessment for extreme events and is divided into three parts. In the first part, a regionalization approach for flood peak discharges was further developed and substantiated, especially regarding recurrence intervals of 200 to 10 000 years and a large number of small ungauged catchments. Model comparisons show that more confidence in such flood estimates for ungauged areas and very long recurrence intervals may be given as implied by statistical analysis alone. The hydraulic simulation in the second part is oriented towards hazard mapping and risk analyses covering the whole spectrum of relevant flood events. As the hydrodynamic simulation is directly coupled with a GIS, the results can be easily processed as local inundation depths for spatial risk analyses. For this, a new GIS-based software tool was developed, being presented in the third part, which enables estimations of the direct flood damage to single buildings or areas based on different established stage-damage functions. Furthermore, a new multifactorial approach for damage estimation is presented, aiming at the improvement of damage estimation on local scale by considering factors like building quality, contamination and precautionary measures. The methods and results from this study form the base for comprehensive risk analyses and flood management strategies.