Biased-corrected richness estimates for the Amazonian tree flora
Authors: ter Steege Hans , Prado Paulo I. , Lima Renato A. F. de , Pos Edwin , de Souza Coelho Luiz , de Andrade Lima Filho Diogenes , Salomão Rafael P. , Amaral Iêda Leão , de Almeida Matos Francisca Dionízia , Castilho Carolina V. , Phillips Oliver L. , Guevara Juan Ernesto , de Jesus Veiga Carim Marcelo , Cárdenas López Dairon , Magnusson William E. , Wittmann Florian , Martins Maria Pires , Sabatier Daniel , Irume Mariana Victória , da Silva Guimarães José Renan , Molino Jean-François , Bánki Olaf S. , Piedade Maria Teresa Fernandez , Pitman Nigel C. A. , Ramos José Ferreira , Monteagudo Mendoza Abel , Venticinque Eduardo Martins , Luize Bruno Garcia , Núñez Vargas Percy , Silva Thiago Sanna Freire , de Leão Novo Evlyn Márcia Moraes , Reis Neidiane Farias Costa , Terborgh John , Manzatto Angelo Gilberto , Casula Katia Regina , Honorio Coronado Euridice N. , Montero Juan Carlos , Duque Alvaro , Costa Flávia R. C. , Castaño Arboleda Nicolás , Schöngart Jochen , Zartman Charles Eugene , Killeen Timothy J. , Marimon Beatriz S. , Marimon-Junior Ben Hur , Vasquez Rodolfo , Mostacedo Bonifacio , Demarchi Layon O. , Feldpausch Ted R. , Engel Julien , Petronelli Pascal , Baraloto Chris , Assis Rafael L. , Castellanos Hernán , Simon Marcelo Fragomeni , de Medeiros Marcelo Brilhante , Quaresma Adriano , Laurance Susan G. W. , Rincón Lorena M. , Andrade Ana , Sousa Thaiane R. , Camargo José Luís , Schietti Juliana , Laurance William F. , de Queiroz Helder Lima , Nascimento Henrique Eduardo Mendonça , Lopes Maria Aparecida , de Sousa Farias Emanuelle , Magalhães José Leonardo Lima , Brienen Roel , Aymard C. Gerardo A. , Revilla Juan David Cardenas , Vieira Ima Célia Guimarães , Cintra Bruno Barçante Ladvocat , Stevenson Pablo R. , Feitosa Yuri Oliveira , Duivenvoorden Joost F. , Mogollón Hugo F. , Araujo-Murakami Alejandro , Ferreira Leandro Valle , Lozada José Rafael , Comiskey James A. , de Toledo José Julio , Damasco Gabriel , Dávila Nállarett , Lopes Aline , García-Villacorta Roosevelt , Draper Freddie , Vicentini Alberto , Cornejo Valverde Fernando , Lloyd Jon , Gomes Vitor H. F. , Neill David , Alonso Alfonso , Dallmeier Francisco , de Souza Fernanda Coelho , Gribel Rogerio , Arroyo Luzmila , Carvalho Fernanda Antunes , de Aguiar Daniel Praia Portela , do Amaral Dário Dantas , Pansonato Marcelo Petratti , Feeley Kenneth J. , Berenguer Erika , Fine Paul V. A. , Guedes Marcelino Carneiro , Barlow Jos , Ferreira Joice , Villa Boris , Peñuela Mora Maria Cristina , Jimenez Eliana M. , Licona Juan Carlos , Cerón Carlos , Thomas Raquel , Maas Paul , Silveira Marcos , Henkel Terry W. , Stropp Juliana , Paredes Marcos Ríos , Dexter Kyle G. , Daly Doug , Baker Tim R. , Huamantupa-Chuquimaco Isau , Milliken William , Pennington Toby , Tello J. Sebastián , Pena José Luis Marcelo , Peres Carlos A. , Klitgaard Bente , Fuentes Alfredo , Silman Miles R. , Di Fiore Anthony , von Hildebrand Patricio , Chave Jerome , van Andel Tinde R. , Hilário Renato Richard , Phillips Juan Fernando , Rivas-Torres Gonzalo , Noronha Janaína Costa , Prieto Adriana , Gonzales Therany , de Sá Carpanedo Rainiellene , Gonzales George Pepe Gallardo , Gómez Ricardo Zárate , de Jesus Rodrigues Domingos , Zent Egleé L. , Ruschel Ademir R. , Vos Vincent Antoine , Fonty Émile , Junqueira André Braga , Doza Hilda Paulette Dávila , Hoffman Bruce , Zent Stanford , Barbosa Edelcilio Marques , Malhi Yadvinder , de Matos Bonates Luiz Carlos , de Andrade Miranda Ires Paula , Silva Natalino , Barbosa Flávia Rodrigues , Vela César I. A. , Pinto Linder Felipe Mozombite , Rudas Agustín , Albuquerque Bianca Weiss , Umaña Maria Natalia , Carrero Márquez Yrma Andreina , van der Heijden Geertje , Young Kenneth R. , Tirado Milton , Correa Diego F. , Sierra Rodrigo , Costa Janaina Barbosa Pedrosa , Rocha Maira , Vilanova Torre Emilio , Wang Ophelia , Oliveira Alexandre A. , Kalamandeen Michelle , Vriesendorp Corine , Ramirez-Angulo Hirma , Holmgren Milena , Nascimento Marcelo Trindade , Galbraith David , Flores Bernardo Monteiro , Scudeller Veridiana Vizoni , Cano Angela , Ahuite Reategui Manuel Augusto , Mesones Italo , Baider Cláudia , Mendoza Casimiro , Zagt Roderick , Urrego Giraldo Ligia Estela , Ferreira Cid , Villarroel Daniel , Linares-Palomino Reynaldo , Farfan-Rios William , Farfan-Rios William , Casas Luisa Fernanda , Cárdenas Sasha , Balslev Henrik , Torres-Lezama Armando , Alexiades Miguel N. , Garcia-Cabrera Karina , Valenzuela Gamarra Luis , Valderrama Sandoval Elvis H. , Ramirez Arevalo Freddy , Hernandez Lionel , Sampaio Adeilza Felipe , Pansini Susamar , Palacios Cuenca Walter , de Oliveira Edmar Almeida , Pauletto Daniela , Levesley Aurora , Melgaço Karina , Pickavance Georgia 
Published: June 2020

Amazonian forests are extraordinarily diverse, but the estimated species richness is very much debated. Here, we apply an ensemble of parametric estimators and a novel technique that includes conspecific spatial aggregation to an extended database of forest plots with up-to-date taxonomy. We show that the species abundance distribution of Amazonia is best approximated by a logseries with aggregated individuals, where aggregation increases with rarity. By averaging several methods to estimate total richness, we confirm that over 15,000 tree species are expected to occur in Amazonia. We also show that using ten times the number of plots would result in an increase to just ~50% of those 15,000 estimated species. To get a more complete sample of all tree species, rigorous field campaigns may be needed but the number of trees in Amazonia will remain an estimate for years to come.