Absolute and relative excess mortality across demographic and clinical subgroups during the COVID-19 pandemic: an individual-level cohort study from a nationwide healthcare system of US Veterans
Authors: Weinberger Daniel M. , Bhaskaran Krishnan , Korves Caroline , Lucas Brian P. , Columbo Jesse A. , Vashi Anita , Davies Louise , Justice Amy C. , Rentsch Christopher T. 
Published: May 2023

Background

Most analyses of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic have employed aggregate data. Individual-level data from the largest integrated healthcare system in the US may enhance understanding of excess mortality.

Methods

We performed an observational cohort study following patients receiving care from the Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) between 1 March 2018 and 28 February 2022. We estimated excess mortality on an absolute scale (i.e., excess mortality rates, number of excess deaths), and a relative scale by measuring the hazard ratio (HR) for mortality comparing pandemic and pre-pandemic periods, overall, and within demographic and clinical subgroups. Comorbidity burden and frailty were measured using the Charlson Comorbidity Index and Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index, respectively.

Results

Of 5,905,747 patients, median age was 65.8 years and 91% were men. Overall, the excess mortality rate was 10.0 deaths/1000 person-years (PY), with a total of 103,164 excess deaths and pandemic HR of 1.25 (95% CI 1.25-1.26). Excess mortality rates were highest among the most frail patients (52.0/1000 PY) and those with the highest comorbidity burden (16.3/1000 PY). However, the largest relative mortality increases were observed among the least frail (HR 1.31, 95% CI 1.30-1.32) and those with the lowest comorbidity burden (HR 1.44, 95% CI 1.43-1.46).

Conclusions

Individual-level data offered crucial clinical and operational insights into US excess mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable differences emerged among clinical risk groups, emphasising the need for reporting excess mortality in both absolute and relative terms to inform resource allocation in future outbreaks.

KEY MESSAGES

Most analyses of excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic have focused on evaluations of aggregate data, which may miss important individual-level drivers of excess mortality that may serve as future targets for improvement initiatives.

Using individual-level data from a national integrated healthcare system, we estimated absolute and relative excess mortality and number of excess deaths overall and within demographic and clinical subgroups.

Absolute rates of excess mortality were typically highest in groups where the baseline rate of mortality was higher; namely in older age groups and among those with more comorbidities and higher levels of physiologic frailty.

Relative measures of excess mortality were typically greatest among younger age groups and among those with lower physiologic frailty and fewer comorbidities.

Relative measures of excess mortality attenuated but remained elevated after censoring follow-up at first documented SARS-CoV-2 infection or COVID-19, suggesting that factors beyond SARS-CoV-2 infection contributed to the observed excess mortality during the pandemic.