IRAN’S ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN POLICY: GEOPOLITICAL REALITIES AND COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
Authors: ŞIHALİYEV Emin 
Published: August 2023

ABSTRACT

The Second Karabakh War that led to Armenia’s defeat as a result of Azerbaijan’s victorious counter-offensive dubbed as “Iron Fist” was not just a war fought between the two countries, but also a deciding factor of the new geo-political situation in the South Caucasus region. It is beyond a doubt that there are countries reluctant to accept these new geo-political realities that are trying to destabilize the situation and Iran is one of these states. Despite the Azer¬baijani people’s being part of the Islamic civilization and the country’s historical and cultural proximity to Iran, the Iranian state has placed an emphasis on gaining significant leverage of influence in the region, prioritizing Armenia in its quest for a strategic ally. Moreover, on many occasions, Iran has backed Armenian military aggression against Azerbaijan either openly or covertly. Azerbaijan has sought to comply with the principles of good neighborliness, considering the current geo-political situation, instead of taking a tough stance against Iran. At the same time, Azerbaijan has established bilateral political, economic and cultural ties with Iran. Nevertheless, Iran moved to expand its relations with Armenia, keeping in mind its concerns over “the Azerbaijan Republic’s unification with the territories in northern Iran densely populated by Turkish”. From Iran’s viewpoint, Armenia fulfills the emerging task of protecting western and northern Iran from the influence of the Turks. On the other hand, capitalizing on the Armenian community’s political clout in the United States and Europe meets Iran’s interests. As for Armenia’s reasoning, it considers Iran as a country capable of revitalizing its economy and its approach to bilateral relations remains unchanged. Other factors contributing to the strengthened Iranian-Armenian relations included Turkey’s growing geopolitical influence in the region, and Azerbaijan’s close relations with Turkey. Although new geo-political realities emerged in the South Caucasus region during and after the 44-day war, Iran has been attempting to destabilize the situation ever since due to its reluctance to accept the facts. Unsurprisingly, ample evidence is available concerning Iran's cooperation with both Armenia and the separatist entity, as well as its involvement in joint illegal activities in the Azerbaijani territories that were under Armenian occupation for nearly 30 years. Azerbaijan liberated its territory from the Armenian occupation as a result of the 44-day Patriotic War, which led to the emergence of new geo-political realities in the South Caucasus. Evidently, Iran is utterly perturbed over this situation, given that the new geo-political environment inceases the influence of Azerbaijan and Turkey in the region as part of their cooperation. Furthermore, the strengthening of a strategic alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan and the expanding cooperation and integration in the Turkic world in general come into play. Overall, Turkic unity is an underlying cause of Iran's inability to grasp the current geo-political realities in the region. Iran definitely perceives Turkic unity as a threat. Therefore, it has consistently backed Armenia instead of supporting Azerbaijan, and this is currently the case as well. Although Iran certainly reserves a sovereign right to pursue its own policy and establish close ties with Armenia, taking sides, supporting this country and making defiant accusations significantly questions Iran’s attitude of good neighborliness toward Azerbaijan.