bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The Political Conditions for Realization of the Agreements
Authors: Kawalec Stefan
Published: March 2007

During the first five months after an agreement was reached between the authorities and striking masses, we have witnessed the government's continuing political provocations while at the same time we have seen economic conditions worsen. Such an explosive situation calls for a programme of action that could lead to a peaceful resolution of conflicts between 'Solidarity' and the authorities. This programme must be based on the agreement(s), and also on viable institutional arrangements. Furthermore, factors influencing the future model of powerholding are briefly analyzed. Finally, an outline of a new social contract is presented, specifying necessary delegation of power from the central authorities to in dependent social, economic and political bodies.
Global Violence and a Just World Order
Authors: Kim Samuel S.
Published: March 2007

Conceptualizing a just and humane world order in terms of the minimization of violence in both a narrow (direct/physical) and broad (indirect/structural) sense, this paper suggests an 'epidemiological approach' to the study of the global security problematique. Based on a broad and integrated notion of 'social health', as found in the Constitution of the World Health Organization, the paper argues that war/peace needs to be more broadly understood in terms of the domestic and international structures and processes at work. Specifically, the paper (1) examines the dynamics of global violence in both ideological and structural dimensions, (2) evaluates the consequences of global violence in terms of its life-destroying, life-diminishing, life-devaluing, and life-degrading effects in four world order value domains, and (3) explains the global security problematique as a cluster of interwoven and interacting conceptual, normaltive, psychological, and structural variables that together sustain the maladaptive elite behavior of pursuing 'peace' by preparing for war. By way of conclusion, the paper briefly assesses the prospect of a relevant utopia (a demilitarized world order) and suggests five 'principled processes' that should guide our journey from here to there, the world order transition to a more peaceful, humane, just, and safe future.
Capabilities in Context: National Attributes and Foreign Policy in the Middle East
Authors: Lebovic James H.
Published: March 2007

National capability can contribute to an explanation of foreign policy behavior if research is sensitive to the role of political context and the systems of which nations are a part. A nation's capability constrains and induces its policy and high-capability states are likely to be the dominant members of a system. Propositions related to both 'rank' and 'social field theory' are useful for understanding the level of interaction among states. The nature of that interaction, though, is largely a product of a political context promoted and reinforced by the behavior of states. These ideas can be applied to the Middle East where the gap between the regional rich and the poor has grown and the former have assumed a regional role commensurate with their capability. As the role of pan-Arabism has changed, capabilities have become important explanations for how regional states behave. A model composed of seven variable blocs is tested across 91 dyads for two five-year periods: 1957-1961 and 1968-1972. While designed to test the role of power capabilities, the model incorporates a variety of 'contextual' variables often emphasized in the literature on the Middle East region: ideology, regional linkage with the global system, regional bipolarity, domestic politics and economic exchange, and examines two dyadic dimensions of conflict and cooperation. The results indicate at least partial support for this study's hypotheses and approach, and the related assessments of Middle East politics.
The Economics of Exporting Arms
Authors: Smith Ron , Humm Anthony , Fontanel Jacques
Published: March 2007

The international trade in arms has an important economic dimension which this paper attempts to examine. After reviewing the evolution of demand and supply, the implications of the current market structure for price and revenue are examined. This suggests that, in purely commercial terms, the promotion of arms exports by a country is not a profitable proposition. Given this, we consider why governments in supplier countries have nonetheless heavily promoted arms exports. It appears that the initial momentum was provided by strategic and political objectives but that the growing dependence of particular interests on arms exports created a powerful economic lobby, despite the lack of commercial logic. In fact these economic pressures tend to undermine the political and strategic objectives. This contradictory relationship is examined by regression analysis of time-series for five countries. Although the estimates suffer severe limitations, a dynamic model suggests that a country's military expenditure has conflicting positive and negative effects on its arms exports.
The World Economy
Authors: Pain Nigel , Ashworth Paul , Holland Dawn , Hubert Florence , Willem te Velde Dirk
Published: March 2007

The short-term economic outlook has improved significantly in nearly all parts of the world economy over the past year. Growth has continued at a rapid pace in the North American economies, helped by the renewed vigour in equity prices in recent months and further strong growth in labour productivity. GDP in the United States is estimated to have risen by over 4 per cent in 1999, for the third year in succession. We expect to see further growth of 3¾ per cent this year. The European Union economies have embarked on a cyclical upturn, helped by accommodative monetary policies and the impact of improved external demand.
Imports and Expansion
Authors: Hemming M. F. W. , Ray G. F.
Published: March 2007

Any government in this country which pursues a policy of economic expansion needs to consider how big an increase in imports would result from it. It has been suggested that there has been a recent tendency in Britain for imports to rise faster than national output, and that this tendency justified restrictions on expansion in the recent past and may justify further restrictions in the future.
Price Stability and the Policy of Deflation
Authors: Dow J. C. R. , Dicks-Mireaux L. A. , Routh G. G. C. , Swift B. M.
Published: March 2007

From mid-1955 to mid-1958, in the words of the Economic Survey, ‘the growth in home demand had to be restrained in order to check the rise in prices and to safeguard the country's external position’. the main purpose of this article is to examine how far the Government was successful in promoting price stability through restraining demand. The second part of the article discusses the next wage round and the prospect of maintaining price stability this year.
The Demand for Domestic Appliances
Authors: Needleman L.
Published: March 2007

This article looks at the likely future trends in home demand for four major electrical appliances—television sets, refrigerators, washing-machines and vacuum cleaners. The sales of all four have risen fast in the last decade (table 1, chart 1)—by an average of 16.5 per cent a year, taking all four together, compared with 2.2 per cent for total consumer demand.
Plant Size and Efficiency in the Steel Industry: an International Comparison
Authors: Aylen Jonathan
Published: March 2007

Steel is the basic material of industrialisation; and also of war. For Britain in the eighteenth century, iron and steel was the cornerstone of the industrial revolution; for Germany, a century later, the steel industry was the foundation of the militarism of Bismarck. Both countries supplied steel rails for America's westward expansion in the third quarter of the nineteenth century, before the emergence of America's own steel industry. Until the 1880s the British iron and steel industry was dominant. By the turn of the century both America and Germany had overtaken Britain as a steel producer. Today Britain has the smallest of the three industries. In 1979, a relatively good year, 21.5 million tonnes of crude steel were made in Britain, compared with 46 million in Germany and 123.3 in America.
International Industrial Productivity: a Comparison of Britain, America and Germany
Authors: Smith A.D. , Hitchens D.M.W.N. , Davies S.W.
Published: March 2007

This paper presents some results derived from a wider National Institute study of labour productivity differentials in non-service activities in the British, American and German economies, to be published as a NIESR Occasional Paper during the autumn 1982. For the most part the present paper focuses on the international labour productivity differentials which emerge at the major sector level—for agriculture, extractive industries, manufacturing, construction, public utilities and transport. The complete study will also consider productivity differentials for component activities in these sectors and seek some explanation of contrasts in international industrial performance in terms of such factors as capital intensity, market size, rates of growth, labour force quality etc.
Comparative British and American Productivity in Retailing
Authors: Smith A.D. , Hitchens D.M.W.N.
Published: March 2007

The National Institute recently published a study of comparative labour productivity in the non-service sectors of the British, American and German economies: agriculture, extractive industries, manufacturing, construction, public utilities and transport and communications. The present paper extends this work by measuring and analysing Anglo-American labour productivity differentials in the retail trades. Thus it marks our first step into the service sector proper, which accounts in the United Kingdom for one half of both GDP and employment, and in the United States for nearly three-fifths. The extent and significance of international productivity differences in services have been almost entirely neglected in the past, largely because the technical problems posed by productivity measurement in service sectors are even more complex than those encountered in industrial activities. One exception was a study of comparative productivity in distribution relating to the beginning of the 1950s, the methodology of which is similar to our own.
Rational Expectations in an Econometric Model: Niesr Model 8∗
Authors: Hall S.G. , Henry S.G.B.
Published: March 2007

This article summarises research on the role of forward-looking behaviour in important sectors of a macro-econometric model. It is based on the work of a number of researchers at the National Institute over the last two years. Important changes are introduced into many central equations in the model We argue that on grounds of both the underlying theory and the plausibility of the empirical results, this work is a significant advance in explaining dynamic macro-economic behaviour.
Can Fiscal Expansion Cut Unemployment?
Authors: Britton Andrew
Published: March 2007

In both 1977 and 1978, on average over the year, using a standardised international definition, the rate of unemployment in Britain about 6 per cent. This was about 1 per cent higher than the rate recorded for the average of all countries in OECD. Since then the rate of unemployment has risen in most countries, but by more in Britain than elsewhere. Our rate has gone up from 6 per cent to 13 per cent, while the OECD average has gone up from 5 per cent to about 8 per cent.
Use of Resources
Authors: Savage David , Biswas Rajiv
Published: March 2007

The last article considered the potential growth of national resources. This article considers the various demands on these resources-reviewing in turn the claims of investment and public expenditure, the resource implications of the need to maintain a satisfactory balance of payments, and finally, as the residual between the sum of these demands and available supply, the implied growth in private consumption.
Introducing Exchange-Rate Equations Into a World Econometric Model
Authors: Wren-Lewis Simon
Published: March 2007

In this Review the Institute's world economic forecasts are for the first time produced with the aid of a large quarterly econometric model. The general features of this model are described in an Appendix to the World Economy chapter in this Review. The model is based on the WEP (World Economic Prospects) model which has been operated and developed by economists in HM Treasury for more than a decade. However, exchange rates in WEP are exogenous, and this article discusses the estimation of an exchange-rate system for the model, and its implications in terms of overall model properties.
Exchange-Rate Targets and Wage Formation∗
Authors: Blake Andrew , Weale Martin
Published: March 2007

In the context of economic management, with final targets for money GDP, wealth and the foreign exchange reserves, the exchange rate can be treated as an intermediate target. Monetary policy is used to keep the exchange rate close to its target and the target itself adjusts in response to information about the final targets. The target exchange rate can be used with main emphasis on either money GDP or on wealth. The latter is not possible if the wage—price loop is powerful. Two reruns of history are presented. The first uses the exchange rate mainly to look after money GDP with wages following their historical behaviour. The second uses fiscal policy to look after money GDP and the exchange rate to look after national wealth. It requires a reform of wage bargaining to be successful.
Modelling Manufacturing Imports
Authors: Anderton R. , Desai M.
Published: March 2007

It is universally acknowledged that imports in the UK economy have risen very rapidly; import penetration in manufacturing has risen from 26 per cent in 1980 to 34 per cent in 1986. It is felt that any reflationary programme will have little impact on domestic employment since much of the extra spending power will be spent on imports, especially imports of manufactured goods. This has led to the firm belief that a reflationary programme has to be directed towards activities which have a lower import content and hence a higher domestic output and employment multiplier. This was the belief that made infrastructural expenditure such a popular option in the political discussions before the 1987 election.
Chapter II. The World Economy
Authors: Barrell R.J. , Eastwood Fiona
Published: March 2007

Output growth in 1987 appears to have been very strong generally in the major seven economies. Provisional national income data for the fourth quarter in France, Germany and Japan have all indicated a stronger performance than we anticipated in our last Review in February. Our November forecast of Japanese growth in 1987 was 1¼ per cent too low, and as further information has become available we have revised up our forecasts for growth in 1988 and 1989 by 1½ to 2 per cent per annum. The Japanese have been willing to respond to US pressure and adopt art expansionary fiscal stance, and investment growth has also been rapid. We have also revised our forecast of US growth in 1988 and 1989. We are now expecting growth in the US to be ½ a per cent higher in 1988 than we were in February, but because we are now more pessimistic about imports we are forecasting a slowdown in activity into 1989.
Fifty Years of Economic Research: a Brief History of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research 1938-88
Authors: Jones Kit
Published: March 2007

The National Institute was founded in 1938, after a first initiative by Sir Josiah Stamp in the early 1930s. Stamp, who was the President of the London Midland and Scottish railway, had been connected with a Rockefeller Foundation scheme to provide fellowships in the social sciences; he became convinced that a wider attack was needed on the problem of financing the social sciences in Britain and his objective became the development of a central unit, of British origin, with funds under its own control. This would supplement and replace the help given by the Rockefeller Foundation (then the main source of research funds in the British social sciences) and develop an increasingly large research effort in economics and related subjects. Stamp made known his views and with the support of a number of prominent academics, in particular William Beveridge, Director of the London School of Economics; Henry Clay, Economic Adviser to the Bank of England; and Hubert Henderson, Secretary of the Economic Advisory Panel, began to search for British financial support.
Controlling Household Credit
Authors: Shields Jon
Published: March 2007

It is often postulated that the reintroduction of credit controls would be neither effective nor politically possible. Major changes have been implemented over the last eight years both in the way that financial markets work (domestically and internationally) and in the conduct of monetary policy. Controls over either the size of the balance sheets of financial institutions or the terms under which customers can obtain loans would seem to run totally counter to these developments. Does this rule them out completely?
Economic Influences On Birth Rates
Authors: Ermisch John
Published: March 2007

The idea that economic developments can affect births is an old one, going back to Malthus'Essay on Populationin the early 19th century. In more recent times, the economic analysis of fertility was resurrected by Becker (1960) and developed by Easterlin (1980), Willis (1973), Becker (1981) and others. This article reports on an application of this economic approach to the analysis of fluctuations in births in Britain during the post-war period, building on previous work by De Cooman, Ermisch and Joshi (1987).
Recent Developments in the Institute's Domestic Macromodel
Authors: Wren-Lewis Simon
Published: March 2007

The forecast published in this Review uses the latest vintage of the Institute's domestic econometric model, version 11.4. In comparison with the model described a year ago (Model 11.1, see Wren-Lewis, (1988)) some of the main developments are:

1) The key price and wage equations are both forward looking, and are based on explicit dynamic theories of adjustment. This is perhaps the first time that a large quarterly econometric model has attempted to identify the structural characteristics of nominal inertia in the UK.
Productivity and Vocational Skills in Services in Britain and Germany: Hotels
Authors: Prais S.J. , Jarvis Valerie , Wagner Karin
Published: March 2007

Following previous comparisons by the National Institute of matched samples of manufacturing plants in Britain and Germany, this study applies similar methods to a branch of the services sector namely, the hotel industry. The objectives were to obtain measures of average productivity-differences between the countries in hotel-work, and to examine to what extent differences in equipment and training are important contributory factors. The paper discusses implications for schooling and training policies.
The World Economy
Authors: Barrell Ray , Pain Nigel , Morgan Julian
Published: March 2007

The pattern of real exchange rates has changed significantly since February. Our currency forecasts at that time were in line with the implied forward rates in financial markets, with the yen projected to appreciate slowly against the dollar, rising from 100 to the dollar in the first quarter of 1995 to around 90 to the dollar in 1997. Within Europe, we projected a further small appreciation of the D-mark and a continuing depreciation of the lira and the peseta. Overall, we expected ‘real exchange rates to stay approximately stable’. In the event, the yen rose strongly in March and April to around 80 to the dollar, while the D-mark rose from around 1.50 to 1.38 to the dollar. At the same time, the lira/D-mark exchange rate fell by over 10 per cent and the Exchange Rate Mechanism was placed under renewed strain, with both the peseta and the escudo being devalued. As a result, the Japanese and US real effective exchange rates are respectively 15 per cent higher and 7 per cent lower than we had previously expected. These developments also had a wider impact on financial markets. The discount rate was cut in Japan and Germany and long-term rates rose in Italy and Spain. Equity prices fell sharply in those countries with appreciating currencies and jumped up in most of the countries whose exchange rate has depreciated.
Do UK Price Indexes Overstate Inflation?
Authors: Oulton Nicholas
Published: March 2007

Official price indexes may overstate (or understate) inflation for a number of reasons. These include substitution bias, outlet bias, failure to allow properly for quality change, and failure to allow for new goods. This note finds that substitution and outlet bias are probably not significant sources of error in the UK. The other two sources most probably do lead to significant overstatement, but the size of the upward bias cannot at the moment be quantified.

‘Since, with technological advance, the quality of products tends to improve, the estimates of consumers' expenditure tend to understate the true growth in standards of consumption’. (CSO a 985, p. 72).

‘The Producer Price Indices … make some allowance for changes in models and specifications when these can be identified in terms of changes of cost or in technical performance…. [Allowances for quality change] are necessarily somewhat rough and seldom fully satisfactory’. (CSO 1985, p. 40, emphasis added).
Corporate Governance
Authors: Kay John , Silberston Aubrey
Published: March 2007

Both those who are critical of the current structure of corporate governance, and those who support it, share a common set of prenaises. The corporation is owned by its shareholders: managers exert power and responsibility on behalf of their shareholders: corporate governance is a question of effective accountability to shareholders. If there are problems, they should be dealt with by making these mechanisms more effective. This article challenges that view.

The principal-agent model bears no relationship to the way large companies are actually run. The attempt to bring reality in line with the model is one possible road to reform: another is to adjust the model to reality. Shareholders do not own large companies, in any ordinary sense of the word own. Firms like BT or BP are social institutions, owned by nobody. The distinction between plc and the owner managed limited company should be real, and not just titular. Corporate managers are not the agents of the shareholders, but the trustees of the assets of the corporation, which include its reputation, its distinctive capabilities, and the skills of the employees and suppliers. Their objective should not be to maximise shareholder value but to further the interests of the business.

This account is probably a better description of the current state of British company law than the principal-agent model, but we advocate a new company statute to put the matter beyond doubt. Disposing of the fiction that executives are the agents of shareholders allows us to establish an effective system for achieving the key goals of corporate governance: freedom for managers to manage, combined with real accountability for their performance. We advocate a fixed four-year term for company chief executives, involving a wide ranging and searching review of effectiveness which would involve not only directors and shareholders but advisors, associated companies and employees.

It is better that property should be private, but that man should make it common in use …. it is the task of the legislator to see that the citizens become like that. Aristotle
The “Unspeakable Blessing”: Street Children, Reform Rhetoric, and Misery in Early Industrial Capitalism
Authors: Bellingham Bruce
Published: March 2007

… surely there would be men enough, willing and glad to contribute to the regeneration of the poor outcasts of the city. It is no longer an experiment since the Children's Aid has removed of this class, in thirteen years, eleven thousand two hundred and seventy two! Who would not rejoice to aid in such an enterprise…? Money only is wanting. Shall that be an insurmountable obstacle in the way of accomplishing such an unspeakable blessing?

New York Children's Aid Society, 1866 Annual Report
Some Considerations for ESL Program Evaluation
Authors: Perkins Kyle , Angelis Paul J.
Published: March 2007

There is a robust tradition of program evaluation in the field of testing and measurement, but within the TESOL community, pro gram evaluation has only recently begun to be considered as a vital component. To identify some of the major concepts involved, we provide an overview of the better known approaches in program evaluation and, where applicable, focus attention on related measurement issues. We attempt to relate the following to ESL pro grams: formative and summative evaluation, criterion-, growth-, and norm-referenced evaluation, and related psychometric considera tions.
An initial assessment of discriminant surface complexity for power law features
Authors: Solka Jeffrey L. , Priebe Carey E. , Rogers George W.
Published: March 2007

The detection of man-made objects in natural terrain is important in both the targeting and terminal homing phase of modern warfare. The presence of man-made objects in gray-scale images has been successfully detected using a new class of density estimation neural networks to analyze power law signatures. The complex nature of the discriminant surface relating these features has been elucidated using these adaptive mixture networks.
Extrapolation of Mackey-Glass data using Cascade Correlation
Authors: Ensley David , Nelson Dale E.
Published: March 2007

Attempting to find near-optimal architec tures, ontogenic neural networks develop their own architectures as they train. As part of a project entitled "Ontogenic Neural Networks for the Prediction of Chaotic Time Series," this paper presents findings of a ten- week research period on using the Cascade Correlation ontogenic neural network to extrapolate (predict) a chaotic time series generated from the Mackey-Glass equation. During training the neural network forms a model of the Mackey-Glass equation by observing its behavior. Then the neural network is used to simulate the function in order to extrapolate it, that is, to predict its behavior beyond the space observed by the neural network. Truer, more informative measures of extrapolation accuracy than currently popular measures are presented. The effects of some network parameters on extrapolation accuracy were investigated. Sinusoidal activation functions turned out to be best for our data set. The best range for sigmoidal activation functions was [-1, +1]. Though surprisingly good extrapolations have been obtained, there remain pitfalls. These pitfalls are discussed along with possible methods for avoiding them.
ESCADRE: A Design Methodology and a Toolkit for Building Technico-Operational Simulations
Authors: Chervi Philippe , Sautereau Christian
Published: March 2007

The paper promotes a new methodology and associated toolkit to develop, imple ment and re-use event-driven study simulations with continuous variable integration. Methodology relies on a Booch-like decomposition of a real-world problem into classes and communications. Simulation motor and toolkit are described briefly and a descriptive example illus trates the methodology.
Digital Simulation of a Pneumatic Pressure Regulator
Authors: Kukulka David J. , Benzoni A. , Mollendorf J.C.
Published: March 2007

A dynamic, lumped parameter, numerical mathematical model of a pneumatic pressure regulator was developed to digitally predict the pressure/time response of a regulator. The purpose of this study is to provide a greater understanding of regulator operation and to serve as a useful tool in the design stages of regulator development. The regulator studied was a high pressure, piston pressure sensing unit that had a conical poppet valve that regulates gas flow. A model was developed that allowed the piston and poppet the freedom to move independently, travel together or collide. Comparing transient, theoretical predictions of the pressure/time response to experimentally determined results, the theoretical results were determined to be very accurate.
Modeling and Simulation of a High Speed LAN
Authors: Ayani R. , Ismailov Y. , Liljenstam M. , Popescu A. , Rajaei H. , Rönngren R.
Published: March 2007

Simulation is a tool that can be used to assess functionality and performance of communication networks and protocols. However, efficient simulation of complex communication systems is not a trivial task. In this paper, we discuss modeling and simulation of bus-based communication networks and present the results of modeling and simulation of a multigigabit/s LAN. We used parallel simulation techniques to reduce the simulation time of the LAN and implemented both an optimistic and a conservative parallel simulation scheme. Our experimental results on a shared memory multiprocessor indicate that the conservative parallel simulation scheme is superior to the optimistic one for this specific application. The parallel simulator based on the conservative scheme demonstrates a linear speedup for large networks.
Simulation of an Optical Architecture for High Speed Multistage Interconnection Networks
Authors: Guizani M. , Andijani A.
Published: March 2007

The performance evaluation of a high speed network depends on the individual performance of its basic elements. We consider here the performance evaluation of an all-optical 2 x2 switch architecture. This basic architecture supports bursty traffic. It can be used as the switching building block for a number of high speed interconnection networks. It uses bistable optical devices such as Fabny-Perot etalons, SEED and S-SEED. These optical devices exhibit high switching speed and are commercially available. Simulation results are presented in order to evaluate the system performance in terms of the average throughput rate and average system time delay.
A Block-based Simulation Tool for the Enhancement of TCP/UDP Protocols
Authors: Jianfeng Chen  , Lee Myung J. , Saadawi Tarek N.
Published: March 2007

In this work, we have developed a functional block-based simulation model for TCP/UDP protocols, with which we can easily add, modify, and remove various parts of the functional blocks to design a new TCP based transport protocol for multimedia services. In initial experiments, several modifications on TCP, UDP, and FDDI protocols are made, and their performances, such as end-to-end delay and packet loss probability, are measured for a multimedia multiparty conferencing environment.
AToolkit for Monitoring the Utilization and Performance of Computer Networks
Authors: Hamilton John A. , Ratterree Gary R. , Pooch Udo W.
Published: March 2007

The proliferation of local area networks (LANs) has changed and modernized the manner in which the world does business. As the capability of networks has increased so has their ubiquity Computer networks have provided the underlying support for the information explosion which has revolutionized not only academia, but industry, government, the fourth estate and even military combat operations.

The increase in capability has not been without a concomitant increase in complexity. Experienced netzwork managers cope with this by using informal heuristics and other "seat of the pants" management methods. Increased networking capabilities have made organizations extremely dependent upon their networks. This increased dependence upon networks makes ad hoc network management techniques increasingly risky. The current lack of easy to use, large scale network management tools requires systematic network management.

Network simulation provides an important management tool if the simulations are of sufficient fidelity and computationally tractable. The authors review the impressive tools developed at Curtin University as well as our own efforts to refine and improve the capabilities of the Netman tool set.
Modeling Tools in the Continuous Simulation Field
Authors: Piera Miquel Angel , de Prada Cesar
Published: March 2007

This paper outlines the need for computer based modeling tools in the simulation field. The modeling tasks that should be automated by a modeling environment to describe the dynamics of a system assembled by a set of sub-systems will be presented. The benefits of reusing a model by analyzing its external physical causality rather than its computational causality will be evidenced by means of an application example.
An Interactive Simulation Model for the Logistics Planning of Container Operations in Seaports
Authors: Ramani K.V.
Published: March 2007

Today, more than 90 percent of international cargo moves through seaports, and 80 percent of seaborne cargo moves in containers. It has thus become imperative for major seaports to manage their container operations both effec tively and efficiently. We have designed and developed an interactive computer simula tion model to support the logistics planning of container operations. Logistics planning of container operations deals with the assign ment and coordination of port equipments such as quay cranes, prime movers, and yard cranes in the transportation of containers between the ship's bay and the container storage yards. This model provides estimates for port performance indicators such as berth occupancy, ship outputs, and ship turnaround time for various operating strategies in the logistics planning of container operations. The main objective of port management is to reduce the ship turnaround time by optimally utilizing the port resources. Reduced turn around time encourages trade and improves the competitiveness of the port to provide efficient and effective services at low cost.
Computer-Aided Planning and Design of Manufacturing Simulation Experiments
Authors: Özdemirel Nur E. , Yurttas Gazanfer Y. , Köksal Gülser
Published: March 2007

As simulation has become a major tool in studying discrete manufacturing systems, experimental design issues have started to receive much attention. Although the importance of proper experimentation is often emphasized in the literature on discrete event simulation, it is neglected in most practical simulation studies. The main reason for this neglect is that the design and analysis of a simulation experiment require expertise in experimental design methodology as well as familiarity with traditional statistical output analysis methods. This article presents an attempt to structure the process of planning and designing simulation experiments, and proposes a knowledge- based system, namely Design Of Experi ments for Simulation (DOES), that assists the inexperienced analyst in this process. The proposed system takes the analyst through a planning process based on the simulation objectives.
Simulation of Haulage Truck Loading Techniques in an Underground Mine Using WITNESS
Authors: Runciman Neil , Vagenas Nick , Corkal Tom
Published: March 2007

This paper discusses the application of discrete-event simulation with animation to solve a haulage system problem in an underground hardrock mine in the Sudbury mining region in Ontario, Canada. The PC simulation software WITNESS, by the Lanner Group, was used to create the simulation models of the mine haulage systems.

The simulation study is applied to determine if a chute system could be used in place of the current Load-Haul-Dump (LHD) loading system to load the haulage trucks. The current haulage system operates using a single LHD to load up to two trucks in a loading area near the stopes. The simulation models were also used to determine if a truck fleet which is loaded by a chute could exceed the throughput of the current haulage system and meet future production demands of the mine.

Data collected from the mine was used to validate the simulation model of the current hauling practices on the 2400 foot level of the mine. Analysis of the results indicated that the chute system could provide an increase in the system throughput when one or two trucks operate in the system.
An Object-Based Architecture for Developing Interactive Simulations Using Java
Authors: Narayanan S. , Schneider Nicole L. , Patel Chetan , Carrico Todd M. , DiPasquale John , Reddy Nagesh
Published: March 2007

User interfaces in interactive simulations convey the dynamic behavior of the modeled system and allow the analyst to interact with the executing simulation. Traditionally, the software to display system behavior and to facilitate user interaction has been embedded in the simulation model. Such tight integrations make it dificult to maintain large simulations and impose unnecessary limitations on the development of interfaces to a simulation model. This article presen ts a portable, object-based architecture, called JADIS (Java-based Architecture for Developing Interactive Simulations), for developing interactive simulations. The architecture is implemented in Java and applies the Model-View-Controller paradigm to the development of interactive simulations. This article describes the JADIS architec ture and presents its application to an aircraft repair time analysis problem in the domain of airbase logistics.
An Implementation of the Method of Characteristics Using ACSL Software
Authors: Hetet J.F. , Mezencev R.
Published: March 2007

The simulation of gas flows in a reciprocating engine requires solution of the equations of gas dynamics because of the pressure waves in the manifolds, for example. The method of characteristics provides a means for solving hyperbolic partial differential equations. We propose in this paper a new way to implement this using ACSL software. After presenting an outline of the method of characteristics and ACSL software, we present a program to solve a simple case: a pressurized pipe with a gradually opening valve. The state event mechanism allows the boundary conditions and the intersections of the characteristics emitted from both ends of the pipe to be dealt with precisely while the solution of the differential equations is realized in a continuous fashion.
Simulation Modelling for Performance Comparison of Cell-Based Access Networks
Authors: Tsiotsios E.N. , Boukis G.C. , Angelopoulos J.D. , Venieris I.S.
Published: March 2007

A comparative study of the Distributed Queue Dual Bus (DQDB) and ATM Passive Optical Networks (APONs) is presented with emphasis on their application as access multiplexers to B-ISDN, offering traffic concentration and resource sharing. In this capacity, their performance impacts greatly on the quality of the demanding broadband services. This study is based on computer simulation using a novel modelling solution allowing the simulation to be distributed among a few workstations interconnected via a TCP/IP LAN. The performance comparison shows that DQDB offers lower Cell Delay Variation (CDV) and much lower mean delay although not equally well-bounded. This makes it a prominent candidate for the access role of customers requiring a high degree of quality. On the other hand, the APON, which was introduced with an aim to share the medium and the Optical Line Terminator (OLT) transceiver among a cluster of customers, presents a slightly worse but also acceptable performance in comparison with DQDB.
Simulation of Materials Handling Systems in the Mines: Two Case Studies
Authors: Lebedev Alexander A. , Staples Phillip
Published: March 2007

In the February 1998 issue of SIMULATION, Alexander Lebedev discussed the applicability of continuous and discrete simulation modelling techniques on bulk conveying systems. In this article, he and Phillip Staples continue on the subject by presenting two case studies simulating real mining operations. The first deals with development and verification of a process control algorithm for underground bunkers on a simulation model. The objective of the other is sizing of surge and storage facilities.
Simulation Support in the Search for an Efficient Speech Coder
Authors: Al-Akaidi Marwan
Published: March 2007

Speech coding is a well researched area, and researchers are making new proposals for im provements to current algorithms. The family of code-excitated linear prediction coders rep resents a recent breakthrough, which almost caters to the present need for low bit rates. In mobile communications, low bit-rate speech coders play a crucial role in spectrally efficient transmission. Theoretically, a rate of a few hundred bits per second is enough to code speech efficiently. Many coders have been de veloped using computationally intensive tech niques that can achieve rates of 4 to 6 kilobits per second. Theoretically, there is room for improvement. The trend is to use analytical models of speech production and perception. This paper briefly reviews existing speech cod ers, identifies future trends in this research area and describes results obtained from simu lating vowels and consonant waveforms and from a multi-pulse excitation/linear predictive speech coders algorithm.
Libraries of Reusable Models: Theory and Application
Authors: Breunese A.P.J. , Broenink J.F. , Top J.L. , Akkermans J.M.
Published: March 2007

Setting up a simulation model is more than writing down state equations and running them on a computer. A lot of conceptual information about the physics and engineering aspects of the system must be taken into account to construct a useful simulation model. The role of a model library is to manage this information and to make model fragments reusable. This is especially important if models are reused and shared in cooperative work groups. In this article, we discuss the architecture of a library of reusable models. The practical application is demonstrated by reviewing an actual modeling problem in the machine tool domain.
Simulation and Genetic Algorithms for Ship Planning and Shipyard Layout
Authors: Bruzzone Agostino , Signorile Robert
Published: March 2007

The goal of our research is to develop a collection of software tools to be integrated into the exist ing industrial software environment to support terminal operators in making strategic decisions about resource allocation and terminal organiza tion. We believe that the first important step in this process is to define a simulation tool to plan and optimize the placement of containers in the terminal. The decision about where a container is to be placed in the terminal yard depends on many parameters: the present occupancy level of the container area (or cluster), the final destina tion of the containers, the best position to dock the ship, the container's size, the container's content and so on. The problem is difficult be cause of the competing nature of these param eters and because the containers arrive some weeks before the ship's actual arrival date. In this paper, we describe the use of genetic algo rithms (GAs) to perform two tasks: planning (or scheduling) the cluster creation and optimally locating the clusters in the yard. We discuss each GA in detail and present preliminary results.
Simulation of Optical Fiber Transmission Systems Using SPW on an HP Workstation
Authors: Haocheng Zheng  , Shizhong Xie  , Zucheng Zhou  , Bingkun Zhou
Published: March 2007

In this article, an intensity modulation-direct detection (IM-DD) optical fiber transmission system is simulated and investigated using a signal processing worksystem (SPW) on a Hewlett-Packard (HP) workstation. The optical fiber transmission system simulated includes a laser diode source, a single-mode fiber and a positive-intrinsic-negative (p-i-n) photodiode receiver model. Simulation methods are pre sented on the optical source waveforms, fiber attenuation and dispersion, and receiver noise. The end-to-end performance of a typical trans mission system is also presented. In the simula tion, models can be made as detailed as neces sary and computer waveforms can be compared directly to measured waveforms. Measured data can be used to accurately characterize functional components, such as sources, fibers and detectors. The impact of noise on the per formance of the transmission system can be observed. SPW software and its usage on HP workstations are introduced.
Computer Aided Dynamic Analysis and Simulation of Multibody Mechanical Systems in AutoCAD
Authors: Lin Shih-Tin , Lin Jhy-Hong
Published: March 2007

A general-purpose recursive multibody dy namic algorithm is written and merged into AutoCAD. This merger provides a user- friendly environment for the dynamic simula tion of multibody mechanical systems. The recursive formulation provides a computa tionally efficient way to construct and solve equations of the motion of systems. The input data of the dynamic code can be prepared eas ily by using the AutoCAD drawing. The out put data of the dynamic code can be used to create an animation of the dynamic simulation in AutoCAD.
Simulation as a Possible Tool for Peace
Authors: McLeod John
Published: March 2007

In this article the author traces prog ress of socio-economic modeling and simulation since WW II to support his contention that the need is clear, and the technology adequate, to support Peace Gam ing, in contrast to War Gaming.

War Gaming, of one kind or another, has been used throughout history to help understand how wars might be won, but since the advent of powerful com puters the practice has grown exponentially—witness the size of DMSO (the Defense Modeling and Simula tion Office) of DOD.

Why not Peace Gaming? In Peace Gaming a model is developed to represent as nearly as possible the real- world situation with respect to a conflict of leaders' objectives, or to an actual war. Players are assigned to represent real-world antagonists and charged with the responsibility to work out peaceful resolution of the conflict of interests.

In our real world this is not always possible, usually due to the intransigence of one or more players. But both players and observers gain much-needed under standing of the problem and the people involved, and why proposed solutions might not work. And nobody gets killed!
Functional analysis in the sociology of religion
Authors: Tufari P.
Published: March 2007

L'analyse fonctionnelle en sociologie revient à étudier un élément du corps social dans son rapport à l'en semble. On peut utiliser cette méthode en sociologie religieuse, soit en étudiant les divers éléments de la religion elle-même, soit en examinant la place de la religion dans l'ensemble des faits sociaux.

Le premier article traite de la religion comme système social. Les fonctions fondamentales d'un organisme social sont la conservation, l'intégration des membres, l'adaptation au monde extérieur et le développement. L'auteur applique cela à la religion.

Il existe aussi des mécanismes par lesquels ces fonc tions sont assurées. On peut étudier pour la religion ou bien le système idéal ou bien le système tel qu'il fonctionne de fait.

L'analyse fonctionnelle en sociologie religieuse ne peut examiner tout à la fois. Voilà pourquoi on peut diviser les champs d'étude, soit en le limitant (analyse des quatre éléments dans un sous-groupe : diocèse, ordre religieux, etc.) ou bien en examinant un aspect seule ment de l'ensemble du système.

(A suivre.)
Religion et changement social
Authors: Maitre J. , Maitre Jacques
Published: March 2007

Traditional religion is closely associated with nature and with the links established between the living and the dead. Cult and magic rites occupy an important place in the religion of country people. Christianity was propagated on the psychological foundations of this popular religion. One of the most striking exam ples is the way in which saints have been associated with the cure of certain illnesses. This explains some of the serious difficulties encountered in the presence of contemporary social change, which of course, leaves no place for folklore.

In Catholicism, a certain purification may take place even when religious practice loses ground. But a number of dogmas, like those of heaven, hell, purgatory and the devil, may be negative seriously challenged. Con temporary social changed has further led a number of Catholics to adopt a serie of well defined attitudes (e.g. extreme right and leftists) whose relativity they fail to grasp and to which they attribute a religious meaning.

Even in the non practising population, the passage rites (Baptism, First Communion, marriage and en gagement) betray traces of traditonal religion. There is a certain secularisation of morals, mythology and even of hope.