bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The impact of extrinsic rewards on employee motivation and organisational effectiveness : a case study of ZFC Limited in Zimbabwe
Authors:   , Chikukwa Tatenda
Published: July 2022

This research project was aimed to investigate the impact of extrinsic rewards on employee motivation and organisational effectiveness at ZFC Limited in Zimbabwe. In the globalised environment, it is of important to ensure a motivated workforce because employees are the only asset that appreciates in value over time, thereby directly contributing to organisational outcomes. Employee motivation has been a major problem in manufacturing companies in Zimbabwe, due mainly to poor salaries and pecuniary benefits such as transport allowances and bonuses. The main objectives of the study were to determine employee perceptions of extrinsic rewards, ascertain the relationship between extrinsic rewards and employee motivation and determine the effect of extrinsic rewards on organisational effectiveness. The study adopted a quantitative paradigm, which entailed a structured questionnaire being distributed to respondents. The structured questionnaire comprised Section A and Section B. The sample size was 140, which was derived from a target population of 280 employees through the systematic sampling technique. The researcher used the personal method in distributing and collecting questionnaires to sample respondents and 98 completed questionnaires were returned. This equated to a high response rate of 70%. Furthermore, the data collected was analysed using the Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) Version 24.0 for Windows. Upon completion, the entire dissertation was checked for plagiarism through the TURNITIN program. The study found that salaries, bonuses and transport allowances were amongst the top extrinsic rewards at ZFC Limited in Zimbabwe. Good financial rewards are vital in influencing the behaviour of employees, as well as in enhancing organisational outcomes. The researcher recommended that ZFC Limited should consider reviewing the reward system, offering competitive financial rewards and timeously rewarding employees. The research project concluded with directions for future research on the role of extrinsic rewards on employee behaviour.
Factors affecting the motivation of first-year students in the Department of Construction Management and Quantity Surveying at the Durban University of Technology
Authors:   , Pirthiraj Anisha
Published: July 2022

Technology, student diversity, socio-economic factors, student attrition and retention has significantly affected the teaching and learning environment at university. A first-year student’s life is significantly affected by this changing environment and many first-year students at universities experience difficulties adapting to the new environment and being successful in their academic tasks. The aim of this study was to determine the factors affecting the motivation of first-year students in the Department of Construction Management and Quantity Surveying. The study used the quantitative method approach where questionnaires were given to the first-year students and the first-year lecturers (lecturing the first-year students). Questionnaires were administered to 126 first-year students comprising the target population but only 121 completed questionnaires were received. Findings from this study emphasise the need for lecturers to engage in alternate study methods, such as the use of the blackboard and visual aids to assist students. Students need to be adequately informed about the support systems available to them so that they can have a satisfying cultural, social and academic life. There was also a need for better equipped lecturing facilities. The absenteeism of students had a negative impact on the morale of lecturers. Absenteeism has a two-fold effect, in that it disrupts the morale of the lecturer as well as that of the students who attend class. The marketing strategy of both the Department as well as the university needs to be re-visited in terms of recruiting students and in particular the misunderstanding that exists amongst students regarding the different programme offerings. The above issues are critical to ensure a transformative higher education agenda and DUT’s strategic goals of engagement and student centredness. The study recommends that a greater extent of student centredness, student-lecturer engagement and innovative teaching and learning approaches could increase the motivational level of first-year students in the Department.
Exploring transitional justice options for Zimbabwe
Authors:   , Madenga Innocent
Published: July 2022

Zimbabwe is in dire need of wholesale reform. Gross human rights violations which date back to the pre-colonial period could have been abated in 1980 when the magnanimous policy of national reconciliation promised a new start. The watershed opportunity was, however, lost mainly because no deliberate efforts were made to account for the wrongs of the past in order to start afresh. The result was that Zimbabwe won the independence, but peace remained elusive. This is evidenced in the continued instability, insecurity and uncertainty. The non-retributive pledge had inherent weaknesses; it lacked inclusive participation, hence, no broad ownership. Simply drawing a line between the wounded past and the present, meant burying the past without the prerequisite rituals bent on ensuring non-recurrence. The futility of this blanket amnesty is evident in the sustained legacy of gross human rights abuses and impunity. Political violence has been institutionalised through politicisation of all aspects of life. This research is guided by Lederach’s reconciliation theory which uses Psalms 85:10 to emphasise the importance of commitment in converging the seemingly divergent aspects of truth, peace, justice and mercy into a ‘meeting place’ called reconciliation. Using a mixed methods approach, this research established that the invariably top-bottom approaches massage the symptoms rather than address the root causes of conflicts. The victims’ agitations for revenge and retribution prompted me to design action research processes aimed at engaging the research participants in interactive activities. The action research component aimed at sensitising participants to the merits of letting go of the burdens of the past, and to use scars as reminders of hope and not victimhood. The issues of forgiveness without apology, compensation or even remorse were contentious. However, through give-and-take concessions, the dialogue intervention yielded invaluable by-products such as maximisation of indigenous knowledge systems. Building on the participants’ input, sustainable healing and reconciliation can be achieved through deliberate truth-recovery, the right to justice, reparation, forgiveness and non-recurrence assurances. The research outcomes show that Zimbabwe urgently needs a ‘hybrid’ transitional justice framework based on inclusive participation. Inclusivity is critical because politicians are not necessarily experts in peacebuilding. The yet to be implemented National Peace and Reconciliation Commission can be used as a tool to seek public opinion on how to overcome the entrenched ‘fearology and militarism’ (Oberg 2016) ahead of the watershed 2018 general elections. Uncensored national debates can be used to gather information on the way forward. The multiple merits of Information Communication and Technology should be fully maximised in peacebuilding.
The South African managed healthcare system and the general practitioner
Authors:   , Govender Krishnavelli Marla
Published: July 2022

Managed care is defined by Chetty (1999: 1) as "the practice of evidence based medicine with an approach to managing both the quality and cost of medical care". Managed care was introduced into South Africa in the last decade due to increasing cost of healthcare. All forms of managed care represent attempts to control costs by modifying the behaviour of general practitioners.
The fostering of entrepreneurship at secondary schools in the north Durban region
Authors:   , Narain Nalinee
Published: July 2022

The Department of Education has, since 1998, introduced entrepreneurship education in government schools, for the first time. One of the overall developmental outcomes of the curriculum, of which there are five, is to develop entrepreneurial capacities. Economic and Management Sciences, one of the eight learning areas, encourages learners to develop basic skills and knowledge needed to manage their lives and their environments effectively; to understand the basics of the economy and how it works, and develop basic entrepreneurship, financial management and planning skills to operate effectively in the economy
A Review of the Concept of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR): From A National to Global Perspective
Authors: Mgbechi Odinioha, Ph.D. Gabriel, Justin , Joy Amina, Ph.D.* Okwakpam,
Published: July 2022

This is a review paper that discussed the subject of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) drawing
from scholarly opinions in extant literature. The paper examined the evolution of CSR. Its meaning, nature and
perspectives as well. The paper concluded that though the practice of CSR by firms was initially of a philanthropic
nature, it has however, transcended to being aligned with core business objectives. The initial focus of CSR was
majorly on voluntary donations and contributions to communities in areas of identified need such as education,
healthcare, poverty alleviation and community development. But today, CSR engagements are now increasingly
aligned with the primary business objectives and societal imperatives, and explicitly driven by policies embedded in
relevant legislation and standards. Therefore, organisations are encouraged to entrench CSR practices is its agenda
and operational policies.
UPAYA PENINGKATAN KETERAMPILAN MENULIS CERPEN SISWA KELAS IX MIPA 4 MAN 2 BREBES DENGAN STRATEGI PEMBELAJARAN BERBASIS MASALAH
Authors: WIJAYANTI ETI SOPHIA
Published: July 2022

This study aims to describe the improvement of short story writing skills of Class IX MIPA 4 students of MAN 2 Brebes in learning to write short stories through the use of problem-based learning strategies. The results of this study indicate that the average score for writing pre-action short stories is 54.9 (54.9%), increased in the first cycle to 65.7 (65.7%), and in the second cycle the average score again increased to 78.1 (78.1%). So, the ability to write short stories of students from the pretest to the end of the first cycle increased by 10.7 (10.7%), and from the first cycle to the end of the second cycle, it increased by 12.4 (12.4%). Based on the scores above, it can be concluded that starting from before the action to after the action, the students' short story writing skill scores have increased by 23.1 (23.1%) from a score of 54.9 (54.9%) to 78, 1 (78.1%). The improvement of the process can be seen from the condition of students who show positive behavior changes. In cycle II, the condition of the class can be controlled and more conducive. Students who are less motivated seem more enthusiastic, more confident and play an active role in learning to write short stories with problem-based learning strategies, because they can help students bring out writing potential in students and make it easier for students to find ideas taken from the problems around them.
ABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan untuk mendeskripsikan peningkatan kemampuan menulis cerpen siswa Kelas IX MIPA 4 MAN 2 Brebes dalam pembelajaran menulis cerpen melalui penggunaan strategi pembelajaran berbasis masalah. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan, rata-rata skor menulis cerpen pratindakan sebesar 54,9 (54,9%), meningkat pada siklus I menjadi 65,7 (65,7%), dan pada siklus II nilai rata-rata skor kembali meningkat menjadi 78,1 (78,1%). Jadi, kemampuan menulis cerpen siswa dari pretes sampai akhir siklus I mengalami peningkatan sebesar 10,7 (10,7%), dan dari siklus I sampai akhir siklus II mengalami peningkatan sebesar 12,4 (12,4%). Berdasarkan perolehan skor di atas, dapat disimpulkan bahwa mulai dari sebelum tindakan hingga sesudah tindakan, nilai keterampilan menulis cerpen siswa telah mengalami peningkatan sebesar 23,1 (23,1%) yaitu dari skor 54,9 (54,9%) menjadi 78,1 (78,1%). Peningkatan proses dapat dilihat dari kondisi siswa yang menunjukkan perubahan perilaku positif. Pada siklus II, kondisi kelas sudah dapat dikendalikan dan lebih kondusif. Siswa yang kurang termotivasi tampak lebih bersemangat, lebih percaya diri dan berperan aktif mengikuti pembelajaran menulis cerpen dengan strategi pembelajaran berbasis masalah, karena dapat membantu siswa memunculkan potensi menulis dalam diri siswa dan mempermudah siswa dalam menemukan ide yang diambil dari masalah yang ada di sekitar mereka.
PENINGKATAN KEMAMPUAN MEMBACA PERMULAAN MELALUI MEDIA GEOBOARD PADA SISWA TUNAGRAHITA RINGAN KELAS I SLB KHUSUS BINA MANDIRI SURABAYA
Authors: ZURAIDAH ZURAIDAH
Published: July 2022

The purpose of this study is to help overcome the problems of mild mentally retarded students in recognizing letters, media that can help and facilitate students is needed. Media that can help students with mild mental retardation in recognizing letters is by using geoboard media. This study uses two cycles of action. Each cycle consists of two meetings and consists of four stages, namely planning, implementation, observation, and reflection. The target of this research is students with mild mental retardation in class I Special SLB Bina Mandiri. The data obtained in the form of formative test results and observation sheets of learning activities. From the results of data analysis, it is known that students' reading learning outcomes in Recognizing letters have increased from the pre-cycle 44.4%, in the first cycle a score of 55.5% and in the second cycle the expected completion limit is 80%. The conclusion of this research is that through geoboard media students have increased in recognizing letters in early reading learning. Geoboard media is popular with students because it not only learns to recognize what can be learned but also recognizes numbers and images, its use is also very easy, practical and economical.
ABSTRAKTujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk membantu mengatasi permasalahan siswa tunagrahita ringan dalam mengenal huruf, diperlukan media yang dapat membantu dan memudahkan siswa. Media yang dapat membantu siswa tunagrahita ringan dalam mengenal huruf yaitu dengan menggunakan media geoboard. Penelitian ini menggunakan tindakan sebanyak dua siklus. Setiap siklus terdiri dari dua kali pertemuan dan terdiri dari empat tahap yaitu perencanaan, pelaksanaan, pengamatan, dan refleksi. Sasaran penelitian ini adalah siswa tunagrahita ringan kelas I SLB Khusus Bina Mandiri. Data yang diperoleh berupa hasil tes formatif dan lembar pengamatan kegiatan pembelajaran. Dari hasil analisis data diketahui bahwa hasil belajar membaca siswa dalam Mengenal huruf mengalami peningkatan dari pra siklus 44,4 %, pada siklus I memperoleh skor 55,5 % dan pada siklus II telah mencapai batas tuntas yang diharapkan yaitu 80%. Kesimpulan dari penelitian ini adalah melalui media geoboard siswa mengalami peningkatan dalam mengenal huruf pada pembelajaran membaca permulaan. Media Geoboard digemari siswa karena tidak hanya belajar mengenal yang dapat dipelajari tapi juga mengenal bilangan dan gambar, penggunaanya pun sangat mudah, praktis dan ekonomis.
DOENÇA DE LYME EM CANINOS: REVISÃO DE LITERATURA
Authors: Bernardes Lígia Raposo
Published: July 2022

A doença de Lyme é uma doença zoonótica, de distribuição mundial, causada por uma bactéria espiroqueta do gênero Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato. É transmitida por carrapatos Ixodídeos durante seu repasto sanguíneo. Acomete diferentes espécies de animais silvestres, domésticos e também o homem, manifestando-se de forma multissistémica. Os mamíferos domésticos, apesar de em sua maioria serem assintomáticos, podem apresentar manifestações clínicas com quadros inespecíficos, como alterações articulares, letargia, anorexia, linfadenopatia e ainda alterações renais, cardíacas e neurológicas. Os cães são considerados como sentinelas da doença em humanos. O diagnóstico deve basear-se na sintomatologia clínica bem como em critérios epidemiológicos, e ser devidamente sustentado por testes sorológicos. O tratamento principal consiste na administração de antibioterapia, em especial as tetraciclinas, e antinflamatórios. Considera-se de suma importância a realização de profilaxia da borreliose através do controle de artrópodes vetores da bactéria.
Measurement of light-absorbing particles in surface snow of central and western Himalayan glaciers: spatial variability, radiative impacts, and potential source regions
Authors: Gul Chaman , Kang Shichang , Puppala Siva Praveen , Wu Xiaokang , He Cenlin , Xu Yangyang , Koch Inka , Muhammad Sher , Kumar Rajesh , Dubache Getachew
Published: July 2022

Abstract. We collected surface snow samples from three different glaciers –
Yala, Thana, and Sachin – in the central and western Himalayas to understand
the spatial variability and radiative impacts of light-absorbing particles.
The Yala and Thana glaciers in Nepal and Bhutan, respectively, were selected
to represent the central Himalayas. The Sachin glacier in Pakistan was
selected to represent the western Himalayas. The samples were collected
during the pre- and post-monsoon seasons of the year 2016. The samples were
analyzed for black carbon (BC) and water-insoluble organic carbon (OC)
through the thermal optical method. The average mass concentrations (BC 2381 ng g−1; OC 3896 ng g−1; dust 101 µg g−1) in the
western Himalayas (Sachin glacier) were quite high compared to the mass
concentrations (BC 358 ng g−1, OC 904 ng g−1, dust 22 µg g−1) in the central Himalayas (Yala glacier). The difference in mass
concentration may be due to the difference in elevation, snow age, local
pollution sources, and meteorological conditions. BC in
surface snow was also estimated through Weather
Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) simulations at the three
glacier sites during the sampling periods. Simulations reasonably capture
the spatial and seasonal patterns of the observed BC in snow but with a
relatively smaller magnitude. Absolute snow albedo was estimated through the
Snow, Ice, and Aerosol Radiative (SNICAR) model. The absolute snow albedo
reduction ranged from 0.48 % (Thana glacier during September) to 24 % (Sachin glacier during May) due to BC and 0.13 % (Yala glacier
during September) to 5 % (Sachin glacier during May) due to dust. The
instantaneous radiative forcing due to BC and dust was estimated in the
range of 0 to 96.48 and 0 to 25 W m−2, respectively. The
lowest and highest albedo reduction and radiative forcing were observed in
central and western Himalayan glaciers, respectively. The potential source
regions of the deposited pollutants were inferred using WRF-Chem
tagged-tracer simulations. Selected glaciers in the western Himalayas were
mostly affected by long-range transport from the Middle East and central
Asia; however, the central Himalayan glaciers were mainly affected by local
and south Asia emissions (from Nepal, India, and China) especially during
the pre-monsoon season. Overall, south Asia and west Asia were the main
contributing source regions of pollutants.
FFEM-DB: the multinational Database of Flood Fatalities from the Euro-Mediterranean region. Planning a public webgis platform to promote risk awareness and support risk reduction strategies
Authors: Petrucci Olga ,   FFEM-DB Team
Published: July 2022

In spite of substantial improvements in managing flood risk and a large number of governmental initiatives on a different scale, floods still represent a threat to human life. The July 2021 catastrophic flood that affected Germany and neighboring countries, killing more than 200 people, witnesses that citizens can be massively killed by floods in developed countries attentive to flood risk management. Beyond the local factors leading to each death, specific circumstances and individual behaviors are shown to be comparable among different flood fatalities. The collection of these data allows researchers and flood risk managers to explore demographic, behavioral, and situational factors and environmental features of flood-related mortality to promote Disaster Risk Reduction. To answer the lack of standardized data collection on flood fatalities on the European scale, we created FFEM-DB, the multinational Database of Flood Fatalities from the Euro-Mediterranean region. Currently, FFFEM-DB hosts 2,875 flood fatalities from 12 territories (nine of which represent entire countries) in Europe and the broader Mediterranean region from 1980 to 2020 and provides data on fatalities’ profiles, location, and circumstances contributing to the fatal accident. The FFEM-DB is expandable, regularly updated, publicly available, and with anonymized data. Compared to existing disaster datasets containing spare data on flood fatalities, the key advantages are FFEM-DB's high level of detail, data accuracy, record completeness, and the large sample size from an extended area. The present contribution proposes future developments of the FFEM-DB in terms of a) the spatial expansion, covering more regions; b) data sharing by means of a dedicated webgis platform, planned to both support actions of civil protection agencies and promote data diffusion among citizens to raise risk awareness. 
On the influence of Ocean Mixed Layer depth and Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly in the genesis and evolution of the Mediterranean Tropical-Like cyclones “IANOS”
Authors: Ricchi Antonio , Liguori Giovanni , Cavicchia Leone , Miglietta Mario Marcello , Bonaldo Davide , Carniel Sandro , Ferretti Rossella
Published: July 2022

Over the Mediterranean basin we can occasionally observe intense cyclones showing tropical characteristics and known as Mediterranean Tropical-Like Cyclones (TLC). Previous studies focusing on past TLCs events have found that SST anomalies play a fundamental role in modulating the intense air-sea exchange of latent and sensible heat fluxes, hence controlling both development and evolution of TLCs. However, given the connection between ocean mixed layer, ocean heat content and temperature, it is important to explore also the role of the mixed layer depth (MLD). In this study we investigated the role of both SST, SST anomaly and MLD profile on genesis and evolution of a recent record-breaking TLC. Specifically, we focus on TCL “IANOS”, a cyclone that originated over the southern Ionian Sea around 14 Sept 2020, moved over the Central Ionian Sea from south-west to North-East, and made landfall around 19 Sept 2020 over Greece mainland coast. It developed over a basin where a positive SST anomaly up to 4 °C was detected, which coincided with the sea area where it reached the maximum intensity. We conducted a series of experiments using an atmospheric model (WRF - Weather Research and Forecasting system) driven by underlying SST (standalone configuration) with daily update or coupled to a simple mixed-layer ocean model (SLAB ocean), with SST calculated at every time step using the SLAB ocean for a given value of the MLD. WRF was implemented with 3 km grid spacing, forced with ECMWF-IFS analysis (9 km resolution), while SST or MLD initialization, for standalone or coupled runs, respectively, are provided by the MFS-CMEMs Copernicus dataset at 4 km of horizontal resolution. For the studied TLC, the mean MLD is modified by increasing or decreasing its depth by 10 m, 30 m, 50 m, 75 m, 100 m, change the lapse rate ot MDL and studi the impacto of SST and anomaly present and estimated by climatological projections; the preliminary results show that the MLD influences not only the intensity of the cyclone but also the structure of the precipitation field both in terms of magnitude and location. At first  the MLD thickness was characterized  for the days in which the cyclone developed using ocean modeling data. Then we identified possible past and future climatological scenarios of MLD thickness. Starting from these data, we simulated the impact of the MLD, and consequently of the Ocean Heat Content, on the TLC. The preliminary results show that the MLD influences not only the intensity of the cyclone but also the structure of the precipitation field both in terms of magnitude and location. The results deserve further investigation in particular in the context of climate change scenarios.
A bottom-up approach to forecast and manage water crises in the Turin area
Authors: Brussolo Elisa , Ronchi Christian , Salandin Alessio , Cremonini Roberto , Barbero Secondo
Published: July 2022

In the last twenty years, the Italian territory has been affected by different water crises, which have affected the main sectors of water use, exacerbating conflicts in different territories between these sectors (concerning the priority use of the resource), and requiring the implementation of emergency procedures for impacts management. The recent drought events of 2017, 2021, and winter 2022 saw areas of the country not typically prone to this type of phenomenon, such as north-western Italy, go into crisis.
The term “water crisis” identifies the phenomenon for which the water shortage (a condition resulting from a demand for a resource exceeding the natural availability of renewable resources) reaches a severity demanding a series of management procedures for the phenomenon.
Future water security will depend on the magnitude, rate, and regional details of meteo-climatic changes and non-climatic factors such as agricultural practices, water demand, and governance: improving aspects of water management will be a key to winning adaptation measures. Since drought can be defined in several ways, there are potentially different responses under a warming climate depending on the drought type. Beyond a lack of precipitation, changes in evapotranspiration are critical components of drought, because these can lead to soil moisture declines. Under very dry soil conditions, evapotranspiration becomes restricted and plants experience water stress in response to increased atmospheric demand. Human activities and decision-making have a critical impact on drought severity. The discrepancy between water shortage and the unavailability of the water resource to meet water demand is a function of socio-economic vulnerabilities and gaps in water governance.
In this framework, uncertainty in future water scarcity forecasting and projections makes water security risk assessment and adaptation strategies a top priority scientific challenge: a bottom-up approach for forecasting and managing water crises is particularly advantageous.
Considering the Turin area, Italy, after identifying the events that moved the drinking water supply sources towards crisis, meteorological data and appropriate drought indexes have been analyzed. Critical thresholds and parameters have been identified as a function of water supply sources and response time.
A first forecasting chain was tested to provide monthly forecasts to assess the overcoming of these thresholds for operational purposes.
Impact of drought events on plant Water Use Efficiency 
Authors: Nikolaidis Nikolaos , Lilli Maria , Efstathiou Dionissis , Poppe Christian , Vereecken Harry
Published: July 2022

One of the research topics in the eLTER-PLUS project is to study the impact of drought events on ecosystem water-use efficiency (WUE) and resilience, and the relationships between WUE, soil structure, plant productivity and ecosystem resilience. Data from 10 well-instrumented eLTER sites across a range of climatic, geological and socio-ecological regions are being used to test resilience indicators, such as WUE, nutrient use efficiency, soil structure and function. Outputs from integrated models that consider the whole water-soil-plant system are being analysed to a) assess the impact of drought events on the WUE of ecosystems, b) determine the resilience of the ecosystems with respect to their ability to recover from impacts of single & multiple droughts, and c) understand the relationship between WUE, soil structure, plant productivity and ecosystem resilience. We also develop mitigation measures for drought adverse impacts. First, we did a time series analysis of CO2 and H2O fluxes from long term Flux tower Eddy Covariance measurements and calculated the evolution of WUE in time and assessed the impact of hydrologic and meteorological droughts on WUE. Second, we conducted modeling simulations of the plant-soil-water system at selected sites and assessed the relationship between WUE and soil structure, plant productivity and ecosystem resilience using the 1D-ICZ and the CLM5.0 models. The presentation will provide an overview of the results across Europe with a specific focus on the Mediterranean sites.
Flood risk to society in Italy: a national scale approach
Authors: Salvati Paola , Rossi Mauro , Bianchi Cinzia , Yazdani Mina , Guzzetti Fausto
Published: July 2022

Floods are a common type of hazard that globally cause significant economic and societal damage. According to the European Environment Agency (2020) Europe has experienced a large number of catastrophic floods in recent decades, with numerous lives lost. In Italy, a country for which detailed information on the number of flood fatalities is available, in the last decade 2011-2020, 150 deaths, 7 missing people and 68 injured persons were recorded. These figures indicate the severity of the risk posed by flood to people in Italy.  The risk posed by a hazard on the population is assessed using the societal risk, and is typically sized constructing frequency-consequences curves that relate the frequency of the fatal events to the magnitude of the consequences. The latter is measured by the number of the fatalities (the sum of deaths and missing people). Using the historical catalogue of flood fatalities available for Italy, here we propose an approach, tested for all the Italian country and previously used for other natural hazards, such as landslides and earthquakes, to evaluate the spatial and the temporal distribution of societal flood risk from historical point information. The historical catalogue was divided in different time subsets, respectively used to calibrate and validate the model results. The empirical distributions of the frequency of fatal flood events was modelled adopting the Zipf distribution, defined for a population of finite size. The model variables, can be defined as: (i) the largest number of flood fatalities F, (ii) the number of fatal flood events E, and (iii) the scaling exponent of the Zipf distribution s, which controls the relative proportion of low vs. large magnitude floods. To obtain a homogeneous risk assessment across the Italian territory we partitioned the entire Italian territory in a regular square grid and for each grid cell, we selected from the record of historical fatal floods all the events within a circular kernel of variable radius r, (in km). For each sub-set, selected inside the kernel, the Probability Mass Function (PMF) was computed to estimate the value of the Zipf distribution s parameter. Therefore, for each grid cell, the three model variables (F, E, s) are calculated, producing maps to visualize the model results which revealed the complexity of flood risk in Italy for the exposed population.

Despite the difficulty in modelling sparse datasets, the approach provided a coherent representation of societal flood risk in Italy.  We therefore expect the approach to be used to model societal flood risk in other geographical areas for which adequate information on flood events and their fatal consequences is available.
Regional Precipitation Index: ranking storms in Greece
Authors: Lagouvardos Kostas , Papavasileiou George , Kotroni Vasiliki , Papagiannaki Katerina , Dafis Stavros , Galanaki Elisavet
Published: July 2022

The METEO unit of the National Observatory of Athens has developed a methodology for ranking rain storms in Greece, following a similar procedure in the USA, where ranking of snow storms is routinely performed. The rain storm ranking in Greece is performed through the calculation of the Regional Precipitation Index (RPI) which takes into account:

a)         The daily accumulated precipitation and its exceedance of specific percentile thresholds.

b)         The total area where these exceedances occur.

c)         The population of the area that these exceedances occur.

First, RPI calculations were applied in ERA5-Land rainfall re-analysis, available at 0.1 deg resolution, for a 30-year period spanning from 1991 to 2020 and all major storms that occurred within this period were ranked and correlated to the reported societal impacts. The ranking of the storms is performed based on the percentiles of all non-zero RPI in the examined period. As major storms we define the top 2% of RPI. Then, a proposed methodology for the application of the methodology on daily forecast fields provided by high-resolution numerical weather prediction models is tested and discussed. This work, was funded by the European Climate Foundation.
An ANN forecasting system for convective storms: the legacy of the LAMPO project 
Authors: Venuti Giovanna , Mehdipour Ehsan , Realini Eugenio , Guglieri Valerio , Sangiorgio Matteo , Guariso Giorgio , Barindelli Stefano , Solazzo Enrico , Biondi Riccardo , Cislaghi Matteo
Published: July 2022

Localized and rapidly developing convective storms are still a challenge for meteorological predictions. These events can seriously impact our lives, especially in areas prone to flash floods. The possibility to monitor rapid increases of atmospheric water vapor, a key ingredients of convective storms development, was the starting point for the LAMPO (Lombardy bases Advanced Meteorological Predictions and Observations) research project, financed by the CARIPLO foundation and carried on by Politecnico di Milano and ARPA Lombardia. Aiming at the mitigation of hydrogeological risks in the metropolitan area of Milano, the project explored the possibility to enhance the forecasting of convective storms in the Seveso River catchment, responsible for river floods and producing huge damages to the city. By exploiting standard meteorological data from the ARPA network, radar derived information on convective cell position from MeteoSwiss and innovative GNSS-derived water vapor products from the POLIMI spinoff GReD, the project allowed for the definition of a prototypal forecasting system based on a neural network model. Trained on a decade of properly selected and pre-processed data, the system forecasts the occurrence of convective storms one hour in advance with more than 80% accuracy.

The innovative aspects of the LAMPO project, including the experimental activities related to the low-cost GNSS network ad hoc installed for meteorological purposes, will be presented together with envisaged future perspectives.
Detection of extreme rainfall events by a network of microwave links in the area of Milan
Authors: Nebuloni Roberto , Cazzaniga Greta , Deidda Cristina , D'Amico Michele , De Michele Carlo
Published: July 2022

The use of non-conventional rainfall sensors can help to close the gap on rainfall characterization, which is one weak link in the modelling of the Earth’s water cycle. This has been an hot topic in hydro-meteorology for the last decade. In this frame, the EU COST ACTION named OPENSENSE (Opportunistic precipitation sensing network) has been recently approved and is running since October 2021 [1].

Specifically, the point-to-point wireless links massively used by the cellular networks for backhauling, namely, commercial microwave links (CML) have some unique features that render them attractive for rainfall detection [2]. The ubiquitous deployment of CML, the relatively high density of sensors, especially in urbanized areas, and the availability of raw data as outputs of the link quality control process are a strong plus. On the other hand, CML data are owned by mobile operators, hence they are not of public domain, and they are usually not optimized for rainfall measurements. It is therefore important to assess the capability of CMLs to detect the temporal and spatial patterns of precipitation and to quantify precipitation intensity by validation against conventional rainfall sensors where the latter are present and sufficiently dense [3].

In this work, we investigate the capability of CMLs to detect extreme rainfall events analyzing a case study in a large area North of Milan, where a mesh of more than 200 links is present. The region is covered by an operational network of rain gauges owned by ARPA Lombardia and by MeteoSwiss weather radar. Due to the different spatial sampling of CML, rain gauge and radar observations, specific procedures must be envisaged to carry out a fair data comparison. Even though individual CMLs may return large discrepancies in rainfall intensity values with respect to nearby rain gauges, especially in the case of short high-frequency links, it is possible to obtain a good reconstruction of the rainfall patterns of extreme events, without an in-advance calibration through ground truth data.

References:

[1] OPENSENSE COST ACTION official site, https://www.cost.eu/actions/CA20136/ (last accessed on May 2, 2022)

[2] Messer, H. Rainfall monitoring using cellular networks [in the spotlight]. IEEE Signal Processing Magazine 2007, 24, 144–142.

[3] Nebuloni, R.; Cazzaniga, G.; D’Amico, M.; Deidda, C.; De Michele, C. Comparison of CML Rainfall Data against Rain Gauges and Disdrometers in a Mountainous Environment. Sensors 2022, 22, 3218. https://doi.org/10.3390/s22093218
GNSS-PWV time evolution in extreme weather events: comparison analysis with lightning and radar-VIL
Authors: Mascitelli Alessandra , Federico Stefano , Vulpiani Gianfranco , Crespi Mattia , Dietrich Stefano
Published: July 2022

Over the years, there has been an increase in extreme weather events which encouraged the scientific community to employ ever more different techniques for their studies. In this context, GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) find its place. Over the last thirty years, this technique has shown increasing applicability and reliability in the field of weather forecasting and analysis. However, there are points that it is critical to continue to investigate; one of the most discussed and noteworthy is the behavior of the GNSS-PWV (Precipitable Water Vapor from GNSS) time course during severe weather events. The relation between GNSS-PWV pattern and weather event evolution appears to be non-constant, sometimes showing a PWV peak at maximum convection, sometimes an advance and sometimes a delay. In this study we try to identify the causes of this unevenness of behavior using the number of lightning as a reference for the trend of convection and the VIL (Vertical Integrated Liquid content) obtained from radar as a term of comparison for the validation of GNSS-PWV.
Comparison of the characteristics of hailstones precipitated on one side and the other of the Pyrenees.
Authors: Marcos-Menéndez José Luis , Sánchez José Luis , Merino Andrés , García-Ortega Eduardo , Navarro Andrés , Berthet Claude , Dessens Jean
Published: July 2022

Hailpads networks allow knowing the characteristics of the stones precipitated by hail storms. The province of Lleida (Spain) has an excellent network of hailpads (managed by the ADV Terres de Ponent and the Servei Meteorologic de Catalunya) which is located south of the Pyrenees. To the north of it and in French territory, there is another similar one (placed in Hautes Pyrénées and Midi Pyrénées), managed by ANELFA. A large part of the hail storms that affect this French area are formed in Spanish territory, crossing the mountainous barrier of the Pyrenees, so it is interesting to know their characteristics from one side to the other. In both cases, historical series of more than 20 years are available.

We have taken the database of all the days in which hail falls have been detected in one or another hailpads network and we have calculated the diameter and maximum energy of the precipitated stones. With the data obtained, we have found the corresponding statistical distributions.

Once we have obtained these four databases (ie two for each of the networks) we have analyzed the statistical parameters that characterize them. We have also studied the temporal trend of hail precipitation on both sides of the Pyrenees

Finally, we have studied the meteorological factors that intervene in the formation of hail and the dependence they have on the maximum diameter and the maximum expected energy.

The results show a greater severity in the stones precipitated on the South side of the Pyrenees and the meteorological factors involved in the formation of hailstorms.
A modelling hindcast of four waterspouts along the Tuscany coast with sensitivity tests to SST anomalies
Authors: Capecchi Valerio , Ortolani Alberto , Gozzini Bernardo
Published: July 2022

As reported by the European severe weather database, waterspouts are a frequent phenomenon along the Tyrrhenian coasts. They are more frequently observed during autumn than other seasons and, although less intense than tornadoes, can cause relevant damages when they make landfall. Based on information from weather station data, newspaper articles, eye-witness reports, photos or videos of the damages, the area of the Rosignano Solvay municipality (central coast of Tuscany, Italy) has experienced four of such high-impact events in the last 10 years. We present the numerical reconstructions of the atmospheric conditions that led to the waterspout events. The Meso-NH model, fed by ECMWF global analyses, is used to produce short-term and high-resolution (grid spacing up to 100 m) predictions. By looking at the atmospheric parameters correlated to the waterspout formation, we speculate about the ability of numerical forecasts in reconstructing the favorable conditions for waterspouts formation and development. We also discuss any usefulness of such short-term forecasts for issuing tornado-probability alerts. Furthermore, to investigate any possible influence of warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) on waterspout formation, we performed a sensitivity test by changing (namely increasing) SST values by approximately 1 K in a limited coastal perimeter. This is done to mimic the local warming effect that can occur due to the flux of hot water from the drainage ditch of the Solvay industrial plant. In such inner grid, a simplified 1-D ocean mixed layer model is used to account for the interaction between the sea and the atmosphere and correct the fluxes due to gustiness and precipitation. Preliminary analysis show that warmer sea temperatures (in the way they were simulated) may increase the probability of occurrence of waterspouts.
NASA MPLNET precipitation detection algorithm validation by ground-based disdrometers in the frame of future ESA Earthcare mission
Authors: Lolli Simone , Lewis Jasper R. , Vivone Gemine , Sicard Michael , Tokay Ali , Welton Ellsworth J.
Published: July 2022

Lidar measurements can detect exceptionally light precipitation, such as drizzle or virga. This kind of precipitation is really hard to detect by other remote sensing techniques such as radars because a very short longwave (in the visible) is needed due to the small size of raindrops. For those reasons, lidar instruments are well suited to fill a gap in detecting light precipitation. In this study, we show the intercomparison results between the ground-based disdrometer observations and lidar precipitation algorithm detection at Goddard Space Flight center for future precipitation calibration/validation of the next European Space Agency (ESA) Earthcare mission, which is expected to be launched in 2023.
Measuring the urban heat island of Rome through a dense weather station network and imperviousness Copernicus Land Monitoring Service data
Authors: Cecilia Andrea , Casasanta Giampietro , Petenko Igor , Conidi Alessandro , Argentini Stefania
Published: July 2022

Provided that the population living in cities is increasing, projected to reach 5.2 billion in 2030, and that heat waves are getting more intense and lasting as a consequence of the global warming, the urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon is leading increasingly to extremely high temperatures within cities. It is therefore important to find reliable and simple methods for estimating and characterizing at a high resolution the UHI.

In this work we characterize the urban heat island (UHI) of Rome, Italy, during summer, through a dense weather station network. Measurements were collected in summers 2019-2020. We calculate the UHI intensity using a method that relates the air temperature to imperviousness (IMP), which quantifies the presence of artificially sealed surface in a radius around each station using Copernicus Land Monitoring Service satellite data. To assess the reliability of this method we made a comparison with the LCZ-based approach, finding compatible daily trends of UHI intensity, with a fixed bias during night. Our method both simplifies the measurement area classification and allows to determine the UHI intensity even when measurements in totally urban and totally rural areas are not available. The correlation coefficient values between IMP and daily maximum, minimum and mean temperatures were 0.17, 0.81 and 0.82, respectively, evidencing the nighttime UHI peak observed in other cities. The UHI intensity diurnal cycle pattern showed, starting from its minimum of -0.1°C at 10:00 (CET), a progressive increase which intensifies after sunset, reaching a maximum of 3.4°C at midnight. During the night a slight decrease is observed, which exacerbates after sunrise. We did not find a relevant correlation between UHI and heat waves.
Attribution of the extreme heat wave of July-August, 2021, in Greece to human-induced climate change, employing a forecast-based storyline approach
Authors: Giannaros Christos , Dafis Stavros , Galanaki Elissavet , Kotroni Vassiliki , Lagouvardos Konstantinos , Giannaros Theodore M.
Published: July 2022

Situated in the eastern Mediterranean basin, Greece is characterized by pronounced increasing trends in heat waves intensity, duration and frequency of occurrence. This evidence-based fact is associated with the human-induced climate change (CC). However, CC is not responsible for every single extreme temperature event. Attributing weather extremes to manmade climate change is necessary for putting CC effects in context. It is also of paramount importance for addressing societal needs and providing actionable knowledge to governance authorities with respect to the CC impact on humanity. The traditional attribution processes that are based on climate modeling are computationally demanding and very challenging in terms of uncertainty quantification. For this, in the current work, we present a forecast-based storyline methodology and demonstrate its application for the extreme nine-day (July 25-August 08) heat wave that affected Greece in summer 2021. The method is based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is operationally applied over Greece and neighboring countries at high spatial resolution (2 km) for supporting the NOA (National Observatory of Athens) weather forecasting activities. WRF has successfully predicted the event of interest, providing robustness in the attribution analysis. We first define and simulate analogues of the examined episode under hypothetical climate settings. For the past experiment, this corresponds to the simulation of the heat wave under pre-industrial global CO­2­ concentrations and historical simulated Sea Surface Temperature (SST). For the future experiment, the CO­2­ concentrations during the forecast simulations were set equal to those anticipated on 2050 based on the shared socioeconomic pathway 2 - 4.5 (SSP2-4.5), while SST was set based on future simulations. Then, we compare the 2021 extreme heat wave to the past and future scenarios, and investigate differences in the heat wave amplitude, attributed to the anthropogenic forcing.