bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Substorm classification with the WINDMI model
Authors: Horton W. , Weigel R. S. , Vassiliadis D. , Doxas I.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The results of a genetic algorithm optimization of the WINDMI model using the Blanchard-McPherron substorm data set is presented. A key result from the large-scale computations used to search for convergence in the predictions over the database is the finding that there are three distinct types of vx Bs -AL waveforms characterizing substorms. Type I and III substorms are given by the internally-triggered WINDMI model. The analysis reveals an additional type of event, called a type II substorm, that requires an external trigger as in the northward turning of the IMF model of Lyons (1995). We show that incorporating an external trigger, initiated by a fast northward turning of the IMF, into WINDMI, a low-dimensional model of substorms, yields improved predictions of substorm evolution in terms of the AL index. Intrinsic database uncertainties in the timing between the ground-based AL electrojet signal and the arrival time at the magnetopause of the IMF data measured by spacecraft in the solar wind prevent a sharp division between type I and II events. However, within these timing limitations we find that the fraction of events is roughly 40% type I, 40% type II, and 20% type III.
Phase-space holes due to electron and ion beams accelerated by a current-driven potential ramp
Authors: Goldman M. V. , Newman D. L. , Ergun R. E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. One-dimensional open-boundary simulations have been carried out in a current-carrying plasma seeded with a neutral density depression and with no initial electric field. These simulations show the development of a variety of nonlinear localized electric field structures: double layers (unipolar localized fields), fast electron phase-space holes (bipolar fields) moving in the direction of electrons accelerated by the double layer and trains of slow alternating electron and ion phase-space holes (wave-like fields) moving in the direction of ions accelerated by the double layer. The principal new result in this paper is to show by means of a linear stability analysis that the slow-moving trains of electron and ion holes are likely to be the result of saturation via trapping of a kinetic-Buneman instability driven by the interaction of accelerated ions with unaccelerated electrons.
Linear and nonlinear post-processing of numerically forecasted surface temperature
Authors: Casaioli M. , Mantovani R. , Proietti Scorzoni F. , Puca S. , Speranza A. , Tirozzi B.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper we test different approaches to the statistical post-processing of gridded numerical surface air temperatures (provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) onto the temperature measured at surface weather stations located in the Italian region of Puglia. We consider simple post-processing techniques, like correction for altitude, linear regression from different input parameters and Kalman filtering, as well as a neural network training procedure, stabilised (i.e. driven into the absolute minimum of the error function over the learning set) by means of a Simulated Annealing method. A comparative analysis of the results shows that the performance with neural networks is the best. It is encouraging for systematic use in meteorological forecast-analysis service operations.
Can an ensemble give anything more than Gaussian probabilities?
Authors: Denholm-Price J. C. W.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Can a relatively small numerical weather prediction ensemble produce any more forecast information than can be reproduced by a Gaussian probability density function (PDF)? This question is examined using site-specific probability forecasts from the UK Met Office. These forecasts are based on the 51-member Ensemble Prediction System of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts. Verification using Brier skill scores suggests that there can be statistically-significant skill in the ensemble forecast PDF compared with a Gaussian fit to the ensemble. The most significant increases in skill were achieved from bias-corrected, calibrated forecasts and for probability forecasts of thresholds that are located well inside the climatological limits at the examined sites. Forecast probabilities for more climatologically-extreme thresholds, where the verification more often lies within the tails or outside of the PDF, showed little difference in skill between the forecast PDF and the Gaussian forecast.
Soliton interaction as a possible model for extreme waves in shallow water
Authors: Peterson P. , Soomere T. , Engelbrecht J. , van Groesen E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Interaction of two long-crested shallow water waves is analysed in the framework of the two-soliton solution of the Kadomtsev-Petviashvili equation. The wave system is decomposed into the incoming waves and the interaction soliton that represents the particularly high wave hump in the crossing area of the waves. Shown is that extreme surface elevations up to four times exceeding the amplitude of the incoming waves typically cover a very small area but in the near-resonance case they may have considerable extension. An application of the proposed mechanism to fast ferries wash is discussed.
Electromagnetic and mechanical control of slip: laboratory experiments with slider system
Authors: Chelidze T. , Lursmanashvili O.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Field and laboratory data reveal the possibility of a significant coupling of elastic and electromagnetic (EM) fields that affect (hamper or initiate) slip. In this work we try to prove experimentally the possibility of controlling the slip regime by relatively weak mechanical or EM impact, in the way it has been done in nonlinear dynamic experiments on the control of chaos. The experimental setup consisted of a system of two plates of roughly finished basalt, where a constant pulling force was applied to the upper (sliding) plate. In addition, the same plate was subjected to mechanical or electric periodic perturbations, which are much weaker when compared to the pulling force. Quite different regimes of slip were excited depending on the amplitude and the frequency of applied weak perturbations. The observed regimes of slip vary from perfect synchronization of slip events, recorded as acoustic emission bursts with the perturbing periodic mechanical or EM impact, to their complete desynchronization. We consider the obtained results as evidence that it is possible to control slip by the application of weak periodic perturbations. The phenomenon can be explained in terms of nonlinear dynamics and synchronization theory.
Some theoretical models for solitary structures of boundary layer waves
Authors: Lakhina G. S. , Tsurutani B. T. , Singh S. V. , Reddy R. V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Solitary electrostatic structures have been observed in and around auroral zone field lines at various altitudes ranging from close to the ionosphere, to the magnetopause low-latitude boundary layer (LLBL) and cusp on the dayside, and to the plasma sheet boundary layer on the night-side. In this review, various models based on solitons/double layers and BGK modes or phase space holes are discussed in order to explain the characteristics of these solitary structures.
MHD turbulence and heating of the open field-line solar corona
Authors: Matthaeus W. H. , Mullan D. J. , Dmitruk P. , Milano L. , Oughton S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper discusses the possibility that heating of the solar corona in open field-line regions emanating from coronal holes is due to a nonlinear cascade, driven by low-frequency or quasi-static magnetohydrodynamic fluctuations. Reflection from coronal inhomogeneities plays an important role in sustaining the cascade. Physical and observational constraints are discussed. Kinetic processes that convert cascaded energy into heat must occur in regions of turbulent small-scale reconnection, and may be similar in some respects to ion heating due to intense electron beams observed in the aurora.
Lagrangian characteristics of continental shelf flows forced by periodic wind stress
Authors: Kuebel Cervantes B. T. , Allen J. S. , Samelson R. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The coastal ocean may experience periods of fluctuating along-shelf wind direction, causing shifts between upwelling and downwelling conditions with responses that are not symmetric. We seek to understand these asymmetries and their implications on the Eulerian and Lagrangian flows. We use a two-dimensional (variations across-shelf and with depth; uniformity along-shelf) primitive equation numerical model to study shelf flows in the presence of periodic, zero-mean wind stress forcing. The model bathymetry and initial stratification is typical of the broad, shallow shelf off Duck, NC during summer. After an initial transient adjustment, the response of the Eulerian fields is nearly periodic. Despite the symmetric wind stress forcing, there exist both mean Eulerian and Lagrangian flows. The mean Lagrangian displacement of parcels on the shelf depends both on their initial location and on the initial phase of the forcing. Eulerian mean velocities, in contrast, have almost no dependence on initial phase. In an experiment with sinusoidal wind stress forcing of maximum amplitude 0.1Nm and period of 6 days, the mean Lagrangian across-shelf displacements are largest in the surface and bottom boundary layers. Parcels that originate near the coast in the top 15m experience complicated across-shelf and vertical motion that does not display a clear pattern. Offshore of this region in the top 10m a rotating cell feature exists with offshore displacement near the surface and onshore displacement below. A mapping technique is used to help identify the qualitative characteristics of the Lagrangian motion and to clarify the long time nature of the parcel displacements. The complexity of the Lagrangian motion in a region near the coast and the existence of a clear boundary separating this region from a more regular surface cell feature offshore are quantified by a calculation from the map of the largest Lyapunov exponent.
Lagrangian velocity statistics of directed launch strategies in a Gulf of Mexico model
Authors: Toner M. , Poje A. C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The spatial dependence of Lagrangian displacement and velocity statistics is studied in the context of a data assimilating numerical model of the Gulf Mexico. In the active eddy region of the Western Gulf, a combination of Eulerian and Lagrangian measures are used to locate strongly hyperbolic regions of the flow. The statistics of the velocity field sampled by sets of drifters launched specifically in these hyperbolic regions are compared to those produced by randomly chosen launch sites. The results show that particle trajectories initialized in hyperbolic regions preferentially sample a broader range of Eulerian velocities than do members of ensembles of randomly launched drifters. The velocity density functions produced by the directed launches compare well with Eulerian velocity pdfs. Implications for the development of launch strategies to improve Eulerian velocity field reconstruction from drifter data are discussed.
Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence to geophysical time series
Authors: Grinsted A. , Moore J. C. , Jevrejeva S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Many scientists have made use of the wavelet method in analyzing time series, often using popular free software. However, at present there are no similar easy to use wavelet packages for analyzing two time series together. We discuss the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence for examining relationships in time frequency space between two time series. We demonstrate how phase angle statistics can be used to gain confidence in causal relationships and test mechanistic models of physical relationships between the time series. As an example of typical data where such analyses have proven useful, we apply the methods to the Arctic Oscillation index and the Baltic maximum sea ice extent record. Monte Carlo methods are used to assess the statistical significance against red noise backgrounds. A software package has been developed that allows users to perform the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence (www.pol.ac.uk/home/research/waveletcoherence/).
Nonlinear equilibrium structure of thin currents sheets: influence of electron pressure anisotropy
Authors: Zelenyi L. M. , Malova H. V. , Popov V. Yu. , Delcourt D. , Sharma A. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Thin current sheets represent important and puzzling sites of magnetic energy storage and subsequent fast release. Such structures are observed in planetary magnetospheres, solar atmosphere and are expected to be widespread in nature. The thin current sheet structure resembles a collapsing MHD solution with a plane singularity. Being potential sites of effective energy accumulation, these structures have received a good deal of attention during the last decade, especially after the launch of the multiprobe CLUSTER mission which is capable of resolving their 3D features. Many theoretical models of thin current sheet dynamics, including the well-known current sheet bifurcation, have been developed recently. A self-consistent 1D analytical model of thin current sheets in which the tension of the magnetic field lines is balanced by the ion inertia rather than by the plasma pressure gradients was developed earlier. The influence of the anisotropic electron population and of the corresponding electrostatic field that acts to restore quasi-neutrality of the plasma is taken into account. It is assumed that the electron motion is fluid-like in the direction perpendicular to the magnetic field and fast enough to support quasi-equilibrium Boltzmann distribution along the field lines. Electrostatic effects lead to an interesting feature of the current density profile inside the current sheet, i.e. a narrow sharp peak of electron current in the very center of the sheet due to fast curvature drift of the particles in this region. The corresponding magnetic field profile becomes much steeper near the neutral plane although the total cross-tail current is in all cases dominated by the ion contribution. The dependence of electrostatic effects on the ion to electron temperature ratio, the curvature of the magnetic field lines, and the average electron magnetic moment is also analyzed. The implications of these effects on the fine structure of thin current sheets and their potential impact on substorm dynamics are presented.
Landau-fluid simulations of Alfvén-wave instabilities in a warm collisionless plasma
Authors: Bugnon G. , Passot T. , Sulem P. L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A dispersive Landau-fluid model is used to study the decay and modulational instabilities of circularly-polarized Alfvén waves in a collisionless plasma, as well as their nonlinear developments. Comparisons are presented with the drift-kinetic approximation for the dispersionless regime and with hybrid simulations in more general conditions. The effect of the nature of the instability on particle heating is discussed, together with the formation of coherent structures or the development of an inverse cascade.
Recent progress in nonlinear kinetic Alfvén waves
Authors: Wu D. J. , Chao J. K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper presents a review of recent progress in nonlinear kinetic Alfvén wave (KAW hereafter). We start with the two-fluid theory of KAWs and show how the difference between the motions of electrons and ions in small-scale fields of KAWs modifies the Alfvén wave properties. Then, we focus on nonlinear solitary structures of KAWs. A general criterion of the existence for solitary KAW (SKAW hereafter) and its exact analytical solution in a low-β plasma (β<me/mi are presented, where the electron drift velocity along the background magnetic field is larger than the thermal speed within a SKAW, and hence can excite, for instance, ion acoustic turbulence as showed by in situ observations of satellites in space plasmas. In consequence, the turbulence results in kinetic dissipation of the SKAW and dynamical evolution in its structure. We further discuss the structure of the dissipated SKAW (DSKAW hereafter) that evolves from the SKAW due to the dissipation. The result shows that the DSKAW has a local shock-like structure in its density profile and a net electric potential drop over the shock-like structure. In particular, the electric potential drop of the DSKAW can be expected to accelerate electrons efficiently to the order of the local Alfvén speed. The application of the DSKAW acceleration mechanism to the auroral electron acceleration is also discussed. Finally, a few perspectives of KAW studies in future are presented.
Characteristics of quasi-static potential structures observed in the auroral return current region by Cluster
Authors: Marklund G. T. , Karlsson T. , Figueiredo S. , Johansson T. , Lindqvist P.-A. , André M. , Buchert S. , Kistler L. M. , Fazakerley A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Temporal and spatial characteristics of intense quasi-static electric fields and associated electric potential structures in the return current region are discussed using Cluster observations at geocentric distances of about 5 Earth radii. Results are presented from four Cluster encounters with such acceleration structures to illustrate common as well as different features of such structures. The electric field structures are characterized by (all values are projected to 100 km altitude) peak amplitudes of ≈1V/m, bipolar or unipolar profiles, perpendicular scale sizes of ≈10km, occurrence at auroral plasma boundaries associated with plasma density gradients, downward field-aligned currents of ≈10µA/m2, and upward electron beams with characteristic energies of a few hundred eV to a fewkeV. Two events illustrate the temporal evolution of bipolar, diverging electric field structures, indicative of positive U-shaped potentials increasing in magnitude from less than 1kV to a few kV on a few 100s time scale. This is also the typical formation time for ionospheric plasma cavities, which are connected to the potential structure and suggested to evolve hand-in-hand with these. In one of these events an energy decay of inverted-V ions was observed in the upward field-aligned current region prior to the acceleration potential increase in the adjacent downward current region, possibly suggesting that a potential redistribution took place between the two current branches. The other two events were characterized by intense unipolar electric fields, indicative of S-shaped potential contours and were encountered at the polar cap boundary. The total observation time for these events was typically 10-20s, too short for monitoring the evolution of the structure, but yet of interest for revealing their short term stability. The locations of the two bipolar events at the poleward boundary of the central plasma sheet and of the two unipolar events at the polar cap boundary, suggest that the special profile shape depends on whether plasma populations, dense enough to support upward field-aligned currents and closure of the return current, exist on both sides, or on one side only, of the boundary.
Enhanced Monte Carlo Singular System Analysis and detection of period 7.8 years oscillatory modes in the monthly NAO index and temperature records
Authors: Paluš M. , Novotná D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. An extension of the Monte Carlo Singular System Analysis (MC SSA) is described, based on evaluating and testing regularity of dynamics of the SSA modes against the colored noise null hypothesis, in addition to the test based on variance (eigenvalues). The application of the regularity index, computed from a coarse-grained estimation of mutual information, enhances the test sensitivity and reliability in detection of relatively more regular dynamical modes than those obtained by decomposition of colored noises, in particular, in detection of irregular oscillations embedded in red noise. This enhanced MC SSA is successfully applied in detection of period 7.8 years oscillatory modes in records of monthly average near-surface air temperature from several European locations, as well as in the monthly North Atlantic Oscillation index.
Complex networks of earthquakes and aftershocks
Authors: Baiesi M. , Paczuski M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We invoke a metric to quantify the correlation between any two earthquakes. This provides a simple and straightforward alternative to using space-time windows to detect aftershock sequences and obviates the need to distinguish main shocks from aftershocks. Directed networks of earthquakes are constructed by placing a link, directed from the past to the future, between pairs of events that are strongly correlated. Each link has a weight giving the relative strength of correlation such that the sum over the incoming links to any node equals unity for aftershocks, or zero if the event had no correlated predecessors. A correlation threshold is set to drastically reduce the size of the data set without losing significant information. Events can be aftershocks of many previous events, and also generate many aftershocks. The probability distribution for the number of incoming and outgoing links are both scale free, and the networks are highly clustered. The Omori law holds for aftershock rates up to a decorrelation time that scales with the magnitude, m, of the initiating shock as tcutoff~10β m with β~-3/4. Another scaling law relates distances between earthquakes and their aftershocks to the magnitude of the initiating shock. Our results are inconsistent with the hypothesis of finite aftershock zones. We also find evidence that seismicity is dominantly triggered by small earthquakes. Our approach, using concepts from the modern theory of complex networks, together with a metric to estimate correlations, opens up new avenues of research, as well as new tools to understand seismicity.
Quasiadiabatic description of nonlinear particle dynamics in typical magnetotail configurations
Authors: Vainchtein D. L. , Büchner J. , Neishtadt A. I. , Zelenyi L. M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In the present paper we discuss the motion of charged particles in three different regions of the Earth magnetotail: in the region with magnetic field reversal and in the vicinities of neutral line of X- and O-types. The presence of small parameters (ratio of characteristic length scales in and perpendicular to the equatorial plane and the smallness of the electric field) allows us to introduce a hierarchy of motions and use methods of perturbation theory. We propose a parameter that plays the role of a measure of mixing in the system.
A comparison of predictors of the error of weather forecasts
Authors: Roulston M. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Three different potential predictors of forecast error - ensemble spread, mean errors of recent forecasts and the local gradient of the predicted field - were compared. The comparison was performed using the forecasts of 500hPa geopotential and 2-m temperature of the ECMWF ensemble prediction system at lead times of 96, 168 and 240h, over North America for each day in 2004. Ensemble spread was found to be the best overall predictor of absolute forecast error. The mean absolute error of recent forecasts (past 30 days) was found to contain some information, however, and the local gradient of the geopotential also provided some information about the error in the prediction of this variable. Ensemble spatial error covariance and the mean spatial error covariance of recent forecasts (past 30 days) were also compared as predictors of actual spatial error covariance. Both were found to provide some predictive information, although the ensemble error covariance was found to provide substantially more information for both variables tested at all three lead times. The results of the study suggest that past errors and local field gradients should not be ignored as predictors of forecast error as they can be computed cheaply from single forecasts when an ensemble is not available. Alternatively, in some cases, they could be used to supplement the information about forecast error provided by an ensemble to provide a better prediction of forecast skill.
Developing a dynamically based assimilation method for targeted and standard observations
Authors: Uboldi F. , Trevisan A. , Carrassi A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In a recent study, a new method for assimilating observations has been proposed and applied to a small size nonlinear model. The assimilation is obtained by confining the analysis increment in the unstable subspace of the Observation-Analysis-Forecast (OAF) cycle system, in order to systematically eliminate the dynamically unstable components, present in the forecast error, which are responsible for error growth. Based on the same ideas, applications to more complex models and different, standard and adaptive, observation networks are in progress. Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE), performed with an atmospheric quasi-geostrophic model, with a restricted "land" area where vertical profiles are systematically observed, and a wider "ocean" area where a single supplementary observation is taken at each analysis time, are reviewed. The adaptive observation is assimilated either with the proposed method or, for comparison, with a 3-D VAR scheme. The performance of the dynamic assimilation is very good: a reduction of the error of almost an order of magnitude is obtained in the data void region. The same method is applied to a primitive equation ocean model, where "satellite altimetry" observations are assimilated. In this standard observational configuration, preliminary results show a less spectacular but significant improvement obtained by the introduction of the dynamical assimilation.
Multifractal analysis for the ULF geomagnetic data during the 1993 Guam earthquake
Authors: Ida Y. , Hayakawa M. , Adalev A. , Gotoh K.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In our previous papers we have shown that the fractal (monofractal) dimension (Do) showed a significant increase before the Guam earthquake occurred on 8 August, 1993. In order to have a further support to this precursory effect to the general rupture (earthquake) we have carried out the corresponding multifractal analysis (by means of detrended fluctuation analysis) for the same data to study the statistical self-similar properties in a wide range of scales. We have analyzed the ULF geomagnetic data (the most intense H component) observed at Guam observatory. As the result, we have found that we could observe significant changes in the multifractal parameters at Guam such that αmin showed a meaningful decrease about 25 days before the earthquake and correspondingly Δα increased because αmax exhibited no significant change at all. The most sensitive parameter seems to be non-uniformity factor Δ. Correspondingly, the generalized multifractal dimension Dq (q>1) showed a significant decrease (whereas Dq (q<0) showed no change) and D0 (=Dq (q=0) (as already found in our previous papers) is reconfirmed to increase before the earthquake. These multifractal characteristics seem to be a further support that these changes are closely associated with the earthquake as a precursor to the Guam earthquake, providing us with appreciable information on the pre-rupture evolution of the earthquake.
Observing extreme events in incomplete state spaces with application to rainfall estimation from satellite images
Authors: Tsonis A. A. , Georgakakos K. P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Reconstructing the dynamics of nonlinear systems from observations requires the complete knowledge of its state space. In most cases, this is either impossible or at best very difficult. Here, by using a toy model, we investigate the possibility of deriving useful insights about the variability of the system from only a part of the complete state vector. We show that while some of the details of the variability might be lost, other details, especially extreme events, are successfully recovered. We then apply these ideas to the problem of rainfall estimation from satellite imagery. We show that, while reducing the number of observables reduces the correlation between actual and inferred precipitation amounts, good estimates for extreme events are still recoverable.
Solute transport in a heterogeneous aquifer: a search for nonlinear deterministic dynamics
Authors: Sivakumar B. , Harter T. , Zhang H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The potential use of a nonlinear deterministic framework for understanding the dynamic nature of solute transport processes in subsurface formations is investigated. Time series of solute particle transport in a heterogeneous aquifer medium, simulated using an integrated probability/Markov chain (TP/MC) model, groundwater flow model, and particle transport model, are studied. The correlation dimension method, a popular nonlinear time series analysis technique, is used to identify nonlinear determinism. Sensitivity of the solute transport dynamics to the four hydrostratigraphic parameters involved in the TP/MC model: (1) number of facies; (2) volume proportions of facies; (3) mean lengths (and thereby anisotropy ratio of mean length) of facies; and (4) juxtapositional tendencies (i.e. degree of entropy) among the facies is also studied. The western San Joaquin Valley aquifer system in California is considered as a reference system. The results indicate, in general, the nonlinear deterministic nature of solute transport dynamics (dominantly governed by only a very few variables, on the order of 3), even though more complex behavior is possible under certain (extreme) hydrostratigraphic conditions. The sensitivity analysis reveals: (1) the importance of the hydrostratigraphic parameters (in particular, volume proportions of facies and mean lengths) in representing aquifer heterogeneity; and (2) the ability of the correlation dimension method in capturing the (extent of) complexity of the underlying dynamics. Verification and confirmation of the present results through use of other nonlinear deterministic techniques and assessment of their reliability for a wide range of solute transport scenarios are recommended.
Statistical distribution of elapsed times and distances of seismic events: the case of the Southern Spain seismic catalogue
Authors: Martínez M. D. , Lana X. , Posadas A. M. , Pujades L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Several empiric cumulative distributions of elapsed times and distances between seismic events occurred in the Southern Iberian Peninsula from 1985 to 2000 (data extracted from the seismic catalogue of the Andalusian Institute of Geophysics) are investigated. Elapsed times and distances between consecutive seismic events of the whole catalogue, taking into account threshold magnitudes of 2.5, 3.0, 3.5 and 4.0, and of five seismic crises, without distinguishing magnitudes, are investigated. Additionally, the series of distances and elapsed times from the main event to every aftershock are also analysed for the five seismic crises. Even though a power law is sometimes a satisfactory model for the cumulative distribution of elapsed times and distances between seismic events, in some cases a fit with a Weibull distribution for elapsed times performs better. It is worth of mention that, in the case of the seismic crises, the fit achieved by the power law is sometimes improved when it is combined with a logarithmic law. The results derived might be a contribution to a better representation of the seismic activity by means of models that could be based on random-walk processes.
Holocene climate variability on millennial scales recorded in Greenland ice cores
Authors: Witt A. , Schumann A. Y.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Climate variability is triggered by several solar and orbital cycles as well as by the intern ocean dynamics. Consequently, paleoclimate proxy records are expected to vary on very different time scales ranging from subdecadal to millennial duration. We demonstrate, that Foster's (Foster, 1996) wavelet analysis technique is an appropriate tool for investigating temporarily changing spectral properties of records characterized by awkward sampling quality, which is a typical feature of climate proxy records. By applying it to the Holocene part of different glaciochemical records of Greenland ice cores we proof evidence for a significant contribution of the 1.47 kiloyears cycle over alomst the entire Holocene.
Detection and predictive modeling of chaos in finite hydrological time series
Authors: Khan S. , Ganguly A. R. , Saigal S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The ability to detect the chaotic signal from a finite time series observation of hydrologic systems is addressed in this paper. The presence of random and seasonal components in hydrological time series, like rainfall or runoff, makes the detection process challenging. Tests with simulated data demonstrate the presence of thresholds, in terms of noise to chaotic-signal and seasonality to chaotic-signal ratios, beyond which the set of currently available tools is not able to detect the chaotic component. The investigations also indicate that the decomposition of a simulated time series into the corresponding random, seasonal and chaotic components is possible from finite data. Real streamflow data from the Arkansas and Colorado rivers are used to validate these results. Neither of the raw time series exhibits chaos. While a chaotic component can be extracted from the Arkansas data, such a component is either not present or can not be extracted from the Colorado data. This indicates that real hydrologic data may or may not have a detectable chaotic component. The strengths and limitations of the existing set of tools for the detection and modeling of chaos are also studied.
Nonlinear multivariable analysis of SOI and local precipitation and temperature
Authors: Jin Y.-H. , Kawamura A. , Jinno K. , Berndtsson R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Global climate variability affects important local hydro-meteorological variables like precipitation and temperature. The Southern Oscillation (SO) is an easily quantifiable major driving force that gives impact on regional and local climate. The relationships between SO and local climate variation are, however, characterized by strongly nonlinear processes. Due to this, teleconnections between global-scale hydro-meteorological variables and local climate are not well understood. In this paper, we suggest to study these processes in terms of nonlinear dynamics. Consequently, the nonlinear dynamic relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), precipitation, and temperature in Fukuoka, Japan, is investigated using a nonlinear multivariable approach. This approach is based on the joint variation of these variables in the phase space. The joint phase-space variation of SOI, precipitation, and temperature is studied with the primary objective to obtain a better understanding of the dynamical evolution of local hydro-meteorological variables affected by global atmospheric-oceanic phenomena. The results from the analyses display rather clear low-order phase space trajectories when treating the time series individually. However, when plotting phase space trajectories for several time series jointly, complicated higher-order nonlinear relationships emerge between the variables. Consequently, simple data-driven prediction techniques utilizing phase-space characteristics of individual time series may prove successful. On the other hand, since either the time series are too short and/or the phase-space properties are too complex when analysing several variables jointly, it may be difficult to use multivariable statistical prediction techniques for the present investigated variables. In any case, it is essential to further pursue studies regarding links between the SOI and observed local climatic and other geophysical variables even if these links are not fully understood in physical terms.
On the two-day oscillations and the day-to-day variability in global 3-D-modeling of the chemical system of the upper mesosphere/mesopause region
Authors: Sonnemann G. R. , Grygalashvyly M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The integration of the photochemical system of the upper mesosphere/mesopause region brought evidence that the system is able to respond in a nonlinear manner under certain conditions. Under the action of the diurnally-periodic insolation, the system creates subharmonic oscillations or chaos if disregarding strong diffusion, and under special conditions it possesses multiple solutions. The models used in the past were simplified and idealized in view of the number of dimensions and the consideration of the full dynamics. On the basis of our global 3-D-model of the dynamics and chemistry of the middle atmosphere (COMMA-IAP), we also found a nonlinear response in the photochemistry under realistic conditions. The model under consideration is not yet self-consistent, but the chemical model uses the dynamical fields calculated by the dynamic model. From our calculations we got period-2 oscillations of the photochemical system within confined latitudinal regions around the solstices but not during the equinoxes. The consequence of the period-2 oscillation of the chemical active minor constituents is that a marked two-day variation of the chemical heating rates is an important thermal pumping mechanism. We discuss these findings particularly in terms of the influence of realistic dynamics on the creation of nonlinear effects.
Using MSSA to determine explicitly the oscillatory dynamics of weakly nonlinear climate systems
Authors: Raynaud S. , Yiou P. , Kleeman R. , Speich S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper presents a statistical diagnostic to interpret the dynamics of nonlinear variability in models. It consists in applying the Multichannel Singular Spectrum Analysis to the variability of a suitable equation of a dynamical system. This method enables us to evaluate the sensitivity of the oscillatory features of a physical model to tendencies in its mathematical formulation. Hence, responses in amplitude and frequency are determined in the phase space of the model. The example of interannual variability of the tropical Pacific climate through the analysis the Sea Surface Temperature equation of a hybrid coupled model is used to illustrate and validate the methodology.
Inversion of SAR data in active volcanic areas by optimization techniques
Authors: Nunnari G. , Puglisi G. , Guglielmino F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The inversion problem concerns the identification of parameters of a volcanic source causing observable changes in ground deformation data recorded in volcanic areas. In particular, this paper deals with the inversion of ground deformation measured by using SAR (Synthetic Aperture Radar) interferometry and an inversion approach formulated in terms of an optimization problem is proposed. Based on this inversion scheme, it is shown that the problem of inverting ground deformation data in terms of a single source, of Mogi or Okada type, is numerically well conditioned. In the paper, two case studies of inverting actual SAR data recorded on Mt. Etna during eruptions occurring in 1998 and 2001 are investigated, showing the suitability of the proposed technique.
Self-similarity of wind-driven seas
Authors: Badulin S. I. , Pushkarev A. N. , Resio D. , Zakharov V. E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The results of theoretical and numerical study of the Hasselmann kinetic equation for deep water waves in presence of wind input and dissipation are presented. The guideline of the study: nonlinear transfer is the dominating mechanism of wind-wave evolution. In other words, the most important features of wind-driven sea could be understood in a framework of conservative Hasselmann equation while forcing and dissipation determine parameters of a solution of the conservative equation. The conservative Hasselmann equation has a rich family of self-similar solutions for duration-limited and fetch-limited wind-wave growth. These solutions are closely related to classic stationary and homogeneous weak-turbulent Kolmogorov spectra and can be considered as non-stationary and non-homogeneous generalizations of these spectra. It is shown that experimental parameterizations of wind-wave spectra (e.g. JONSWAP spectrum) that imply self-similarity give a solid basis for comparison with theoretical predictions. In particular, the self-similarity analysis predicts correctly the dependence of mean wave energy and mean frequency on wave age Cp / U10. This comparison is detailed in the extensive numerical study of duration-limited growth of wind waves. The study is based on algorithm suggested by Webb (1978) that was first realized as an operating code by Resio and Perrie (1989, 1991). This code is now updated: the new version is up to one order faster than the previous one. The new stable and reliable code makes possible to perform massive numerical simulation of the Hasselmann equation with different models of wind input and dissipation. As a result, a strong tendency of numerical solutions to self-similar behavior is shown for rather wide range of wave generation and dissipation conditions. We found very good quantitative coincidence of these solutions with available results on duration-limited growth, as well as with experimental parametrization of fetch-limited spectra JONSWAP in terms of wind-wave age Cp / U10.
Rossby-wave turbulence in a rapidly rotating sphere
Authors: Schaeffer N. , Cardin P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We use a quasi-geostrophic numerical model to study the turbulence of rotating flows in a sphere, with realistic Ekman friction and bulk viscous dissipation. The forcing is caused by the destabilization of an axisymmetric Stewartson shear layer, generated by differential rotation, resulting in a forcing at rather large scales. The equilibrium regime is strongly anisotropic and inhomogeneous but exhibits a steep m-5 spectrum in the azimuthal (periodic) direction, at scales smaller than the injection scale. This spectrum has been proposed by Rhines for a Rossby wave turbulence. For some parameter range, we observe a turbulent flow dominated by a large scale vortex located in the shear layer, reminding us of the Great Red Spot of Jupiter.
Travelling ionospheric disturbance over California mid 2000
Authors: Hawarey M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper, the GPS data collected by more than 130 permanent GPS stations that belong to the Southern California Integrated GPS Network (SCIGN) around the launch of a Minuteman-II missile on 8 July 2000 (UTC) is processed to reveal traveling ionospheric disturbance (TID) all over the network on average 15 min after the launch. This TID was initially perceived to be excited by the launch itself, but this conclusion is challenged by the propagation direction. This is because this TID seems to travel towards the air force base from where the launch took place, not far away from it. This challenge is based on the assumption that TID is occurring at one single ionospheric altitude. While the nature of ionosphere supports such horizontally-guided propagation, multi-altitude ionospheric pierce points are hypothesized, which would support the suggestion that detected TID is excited by the missile launch itself, despite the apparent reverse direction of propagation. The overall analysis rules out any extra-terrestrial sources like solar flares, or seismic sources like earthquakes, which confirms the conclusion of TID excitation by the launch. There is apparent coherence of the TID for about 45 min and the propagation speed of TID within the layer of ionosphere is calculated to be approximately equal to 1230 m/s. While the usual assumption for TID is that they occur around an altitude of 350 km, such sound speed can only occur at much higher altitudes. Further research is recommended to accurately pinpoint the ionospheric pierce points and develop an algorithm to locate the source of TID in case it is totally unknown.
Energy-conserving and Hamiltonian low-order models in geophysical fluid dynamics
Authors: Gluhovsky A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Arbitrary truncations in the Galerkin method commonly used to derive low-order models (LOMs) may violate fundamental conservation properties of the original equations, causing unphysical behaviors in LOMs such as unbounded solutions. To avoid these, energy-conserving LOMs are developed in the form of coupled Volterra gyrostats, based on analogies between fluid dynamics and rigid body mechanics. Coupled gyrostats prove helpful in retaining in LOMs the Hamiltonian structure of the original equations. Examples of Hamiltonian LOMs describing 2-D and 3-D Rayleigh-Bénard convection are presented, including the celebrated Lorenz model and its 3-D analog.
Universal dependences between turbulent and mean flow parameters instably and neutrally stratified Planetary Boundary Layers
Authors: Esau I. N. , Zilitinkevich S. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We consider the resistance law for the planetary boundary layer (PBL) from the point of view of the similarity theory. In other words, we select the set of the PBL governing parameters and search for an optimal way to express through these parameters the geostrophic drag coefficient Cg=u* /Ug and the cross isobaric angle α (where u* is the friction velocity and Ug is the geostrophic wind speed). By this example, we demonstrate how to determine the "parameter space" in the most convenient way, so that make independent the dimensionless numbers representing co-ordinates in the parameter space, and to avoid (or at least minimise) artificial self-correlations caused by the appearance of the same factors (such as u*) in the examined dimensionless combinations (e.g. in Cg=u* /Ug) and in dimensionless numbers composed of the governing parameters. We also discuss the "completeness" of the parameter space from the point of view of large-eddy simulation (LES) modeller creating a database for a specific physical problem. As recognised recently, very large scatter of data in prior empirical dependencies of Cg and α on the surface Rossby number Ro=Ug| fz0|-1 (where z0 is the roughness length) and the stratification characterised by µ was to a large extent caused by incompactness of the set of the governing parameters. The most important parameter overlooked in the traditional approach is the typical value of the Brunt-Väisälä frequency N in the free atmosphere (immediately above the PBL), which involves, besides Ro and µ, one more dimensionless number: µN=N/ | f |. Accordingly, we consider Cg and α as dependent on the three (rather then two) basic dimensionless numbers (including µN) using LES database DATABASE64. By these means we determine the form of the dependencies under consideration in the part of the parameter space representing typical atmospheric PBLs, and provide analytical expressions for Cg and α.