Index of the state of reliability of the heat supply system on the example of an individual residential building
Authors: Guzhov Sergey , Sofronitsky Anton , Andreeva Tatyana 
Published: June 2021

The development of scientific and technological progress has led to the creation of many technical solutions for implementation in the heat supply system. Such solutions, as a rule, are energy-saving, automated, and are positioned by manufacturers as a quick payback. Over time, the cost of such technologies decreases to a level acceptable to most citizens. The introduction of inexpensive energy-saving technologies is becoming more and more widespread. Heat supply systems for even small buildings are becoming more and more complex and device-rich. Modern technologies that are energy-saving include, for example: a heat pump with the extraction of thermal energy from the ground; heat pump with the intake of heat energy from the outside air; recuperator of ventilation emissions with the intake of heat energy from ventilation emissions; thermal accumulators; individual heating station with weather-dependent automation; individual temperature regulators for heating devices; transition from metal pipes to plastic ones with insulation; bimetallic radiators for heating systems, etc. The issue of the durability of several possible options for the implementation of the heat supply system, complicated by the introduction of many different modern technologies, both in terms of the principle of operation and the achieved effect, is relevant. In this case, the use of element-by-element reliability calculation becomes much more complicated. First, the values of the failure rates for various types of modern equipment are usually trade secrets and are not provided by the manufacturer. Secondly, the excessive complication of modern heat-regulating devices does not allow making their element-by-element calculation of reliability due to the inaccessibility of information about a variety of patented solutions. Thirdly, for many new devices, sufficient operating time has not yet passed for the accumulation of statistical information sufficient to determine the value of the failure flow. The listed features stimulate the transition from element-by-element calculation of the reliability of heat supply systems to the calculation of reliability indices. This approach allows you to go to the integrated assessments of the reliability of the heating system of the building, to compare the predicted values of reliability and operating costs for various options for modernizing the building. Clarification of the algorithm and the transition to an index approach for assessing the reliability of heat supply systems will determine the flow of failures of system elements, which will allow assessing the reliability of the system and, according to the data obtained, take measures that will increase the longevity of heat supply systems. On the example of the heat supply system of an individual residential building, indices were determined for the current state of the system, as well as for two options for its modernization. It is shown that the complication of the building heat supply system does not always lead to a decrease in its reliability. Recommendations are formulated for the modernization of the building’s heat supply system, leading to an increase in the reliability index.