bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Emotion in Schizophrenia
Authors: Kring Ann M.
Published: March 2003

Early theories of schizophrenia emphasized emotional features, yet empirical research into the nature of emotion in schizophrenia has only recently been conducted. Drawing from the paradigms developed by emotion researchers and theorists, a number of replicable findings on emotion in schizophrenia have now emerged. Compared with nonpatients, schizophrenia patients exhibit very few outward displays of emotion, yet they exhibit subtle, microexpressive displays. Schizophrenia patients report experiencing strong emotions in response to emotional material, yet they do not often report experiencing strong pleasant emotions in daily living. These emotion disturbances have important social and intervention implications, and they point to a number of important directions for research.
The Foundations of Literacy
Authors: Treiman Rebecca
Published: March 2003

Learning to read and write in English requires children to master the alphabetic principle, the idea that the letters in printed words represent the sounds in spoken words in a more or less regular manner. Children need at least two skills in order to grasp the alphabetic principle. The first is phonological awareness, or a sensitivity to the sound structure of spoken words. The second is knowledge about letters, including knowledge of letter names and knowledge of letter sounds. Recent research sheds light on these foundational skills, documenting the linguistic factors that affect children's performance and how children put their phonological skills and knowledge of letters to use in learning to read and spell.
Symbolic Representation by Pigeons
Authors: Zentall Thomas R.
Published: March 2003

The capacity for symbolic representation is a prerequisite for the development of human language because words, the basic units of language, are symbols that represent things. But symbolic representation may also serve a nonlinguistic role of organizing events into categories having the same meaning, and such a capacity could have considerable survival value for many species. In a number of experiments, my co-workers and I have found that pigeons that are trained to treat two different stimuli similarly also learn that those stimuli are commonly represented and, thus, that they have the same meaning. We have demonstrated evidence for such common representations in a number of ways, but perhaps the most convincing is when pigeons learn a new association involving one of the presumed commonly represented stimuli, and without further training demonstrate that they have learned a similar association involving the other stimulus. Furthermore, we have found that when pigeons are trained to treat two stimuli similarly, one of those stimuli is represented in terms of the other. These results have implications not only for the generality of cognitive processes across species, but also for the generality of symbolic representation beyond language use.
Three Laws of Behavior Genetics and What They Mean
Authors: Turkheimer Eric
Published: March 2003

Behavior genetics has demonstrated that genetic variance is an important component of variation for all behavioral outcomes, but variation among families is not. These results have led some critics of behavior genetics to conclude that heritability is so ubiquitous as to have few consequences for scientific understanding of development, while some behavior genetic partisans have concluded that family environment is not an important cause of developmental outcomes. Both views are incorrect. Genotype is in fact a more systematic source of variability than environment, but for reasons that are methodological rather than substantive. Development is fundamentally nonlinear, interactive, and difficult to control experimentally. Twin studies offer a useful methodological shortcut, but do not show that genes are more fundamental than environments.
Context-Specific Learning, Personality, and Birth Order
Authors: Harris Judith Rich
Published: March 2003

Most people believe that learning to get along (or not get along) with their siblings played an important role in shaping their personality, and that their position in the family—oldest, youngest, or in the middle—had lasting effects. Yet studies of birth order generally fail to support these beliefs. The apparent contradiction can be resolved by taking into account the context-specific nature of learned behavior. There is abundant evidence that people do not automatically transfer behavior from one context to another: They wait until they have evidence that what they learned in Context 1 will also be useful in Context 2. Because patterns of behavior acquired in the family of origin tend to be useless or inappropriate in other settings, birth order effects show up only in that context. Outside the family they grew up in, firstborns and later-borns are indistinguishable in personality.
Gesture Reflects Language Development
Authors: Mayberry Rachel I. , Nicoladis Elena
Published: March 2003

There is a growing awareness that language and gesture are deeply intertwined in the spontaneous expression of adults. Although some research suggests that children use gesture independently of speech, there is scant research on how language and gesture develop in children older than 2 years. We report here on a longitudinal investigation of the relation between gesture and language development in French-English bilingual children from 2 to 3 1/2 years old. The specific gesture types of iconics and beats correlated with the development of the children's two languages, whereas pointing types of gestures generally did not. The onset of iconic and beat gestures coincided with the onset of sentencelike utterances separately in each of the children's two languages. The findings show that gesture is related to language development rather than being independent from it. Contrasting theories about how gesture is related to language development are discussed.
The Role of Religion and Spirituality in Mental and Physical Health
Authors: Seybold Kevin S. , Hill Peter C.
Published: March 2003

An increased interest in the effects of religion and spirituality on health is apparent in the psychological and medical literature. Although religion in particular was thought, in the past, to have a predominantly negative influence on health, recent research suggests this relationship is more complex. This article reviews the literature on the impact of religion and spirituality on physical and mental health, concluding that the influence is largely beneficial. Mechanisms for the positive effect of religion and spirituality are proposed.
The Collective Preference for Shared Information
Authors: Wittenbaum Gwen M. , Park Ernest S.
Published: March 2003

Decision-making groups prefer to discuss shared information that all members know instead of unshared information that a single member knows. This bias toward discussing shared information can lead groups to make suboptimal decisions when unshared information is critical for good decision making. This preference for discussing shared information may stem from group members' positive evaluations of each other's task capabilities when shared information is communicated. Members who already are perceived as capable (i.e., those high in status, experts, and leaders) need not bolster their image by communicating shared information. Instead, they discuss unshared information more than members perceived as less capable. As members low in status gain respect by communicating shared information, they may risk mentioning unshared information later during discussion. Assigning group leaders, informing members of their expert roles, and allowing ample time for discussion may increase groups' discussion of unshared information.
Is Retirement Good or Bad for Subjective Well-Being?
Authors: Kim Jungmeen E. , Moen Phyllis
Published: March 2003

Retirement has been viewed either as a transition that is accompanied by psychological distress or as a time of continued, or even enhanced, subjective well-being. Existing evidence is mixed, with some studies reporting retirement as positively related to well-being and others reporting a negative relationship or none at all. Our research indicates that developmental and social contexts shape an individual's retirement decisions and experiences, so that retirement should be studied in its ecological and life-course context. Research on marital quality and subjective well-being in retirement has demonstrated both similarities and differences between men and women, as well as the need to consider couples conjointly (rather than viewing individuals in isolation). Future research focusing on the retirement process as it unfolds over time and in ecological context can serve to illuminate the circumstances under which retirement promotes or detracts from the quality of life.
The Cheating Heart: Scientific Explorations of Infidelity
Authors: Drigotas Stephen M. , Barta William
Published: March 2003

Given the potential negative ramifications of infidelity, it is not surprising that researchers have attempted to delineate its root causes. Historically, descriptive approaches have simply identified the demographics of who is unfaithful and how often. However, recent developments in both evolutionary and investment-model research have greatly furthered understanding of infidelity. The field could gain additional insight by examining the similarities of these prominent approaches.
Thin-Ideal Internalization: Mounting Evidence for a New Risk Factor for Body-Image Disturbance and Eating Pathology
Authors: Thompson J. Kevin , Stice Eric
Published: March 2003

Body-image disturbance and eating disorders are a significant physical and mental health problem in Western countries. We describe emerging work on one newly identified variable that appears to be a potent risk factor for the development of these problems internalization of societal standards of attractiveness. Work conducted independently in our labs over the past decade has included scale development, correlational studies, prospective risk-factor studies, randomized experiments, and randomized prevention trials. Findings collectively suggest that internalization is a causal risk factor for body-image and eating disturbances, and that it appears to operate in conjunction with other established risk factors for these outcomes, including dieting and negative affect. Future research is needed to examine the specific familial, peer, and media influences that promote internalization and to replicate and extend our prospective and experimental studies.
Employee Control and Occupational Stress
Authors: Spector Paul E.
Published: March 2003

Occupational stress has been recognized as a major health issue for modern work organizations. Conditions of the workplace have been shown to lead to negative emotional reactions (e.g., anxiety), physical health problems in both the short term (e.g., headache or stomach distress) and the long term (cardiovascular disease), and counterproductive behavior at work. Perceptions of control play an important role in this process, being associated with all of these variables. Evidence is growing that enhanced control at work can be an important element in employees' health and well–being. These relationships can be understood in the context of the control–stress model.
Fuzzy-Trace Theory and False Memory
Authors: Brainerd C.J. , Reyna V.F.
Published: March 2003

A key problem confronting theories of false memory is that false-memory phenomena are so diverse: Some are characteristic of controlled laboratory tasks, others of everyday life; some occur for traumatic events with legal consequences, others for innocuous events; some are characteristic of one developmental level, others of another developmental level. Fuzzy-trace theory explains false memories via a small set of principles that implement a single representational distinction. Those principles generate new predictions, some of which are counterintuitive.
Sources of Bias in Memory for Emotions
Authors: Levine Linda J. , Safer Martin A.
Published: March 2003

How accurately can people remember how they felt in the past? Although some investigators hold that emotional memories are resistant to change, we review evidence that current emotions, appraisals, and coping efforts, as well as personality traits, are all associated with bias in recalling past emotions. Bias occurs as memories of emotional states are updated in light of subsequent experience and goals. Biased memories in turn influence future plans and emotions, and may contribute to the formation of enduring personality traits. People's memories for emotions provide highly condensed and accessible summaries of the relevance of past experiences to current goals.
Politics, diplomacy and the cult of relics in Venice and the northern Adriatic in the first half of the ninth century
Authors: Osborne John
Published: March 2003

In early medieval Europe the cult of the saints emerged as a prominent focus for the construction of political identity. Corporeal relics became objects of importance, conferring status on their possessor; and, like other precious commodities, they frequently served as prestigious diplomatic gifts, useful for the fostering of political affiliations between donor and recipient. This strategic use of saints' cults is here examined with special regard to the region of the northern Adriatic. In the first decade of the ninth century, Byzantine attempts to maintain the allegiance of Venice and urban centres along the Dalmatian coast may have prompted the translations to the region of the relics of saints such as Anastasia, Tryphon and Theodore, all of whom became important civic patrons. Later in the century, the Byzantine mission to Moravia was focused on the relics of St Clement, while archaeological and other evidence suggests that Frankish missions into the Balkans may have stressed the cult of St Martin, a native of Pannonia. Ultimately, Venetian independence from both powers was made possible by their adoption of a new patron saint, Mark, whose cult arrived from Alexandria unencumbered by implicit political debts.
The origins of kingship in early medieval Kent
Authors: Behr Charlotte
Published: March 2003

In this article, it is argued that Bede's famous account of the origin and early development of the people and kings of Kent in Historia ecclesiastica (I.15) does not report historical events, but reflects eighth‐century concepts of migration‐period kingship with mythical links to the Jutes of Scandinavia. Bracteate evidence shows that the veneration of Woden existed in Kent by the sixth century. Support for a contemporary belief in the Scandinavian origin of Kentish kings is found in locally produced bracteates, which imitate Scandinavian styles, and where several recovered from Kentish cemeteries are found in close proximity to places with royal connections. These include the only known Kentish site linked to the veneration of Woden. Evidence suggests that Kentish genealogy reflects a mythical belief in ancestry from Woden, rather than historical descent from Scandinavian Jutes. Finally, it is argued that Kentish bracteates, usually found in exceptionally rich female graves, were worn by high status women. These women may have played a significant role in legitimizing new royal claims.
Review article: Early Medieval Hungary in English
Authors: Stephenson Paul
Published: March 2003

Books reviewed in this article:

Bak, J.M., Bónis, G., and Sweeney, J.R., (eds.) Decreta Regni Mediaevalis Hungariae

Veszprémy, L. and Schaer, F., (eds.) Simonis de Kéza, Gesta Hungarorum

Csernus, S. and Korompay, K., (eds) Les Hongrois et l'Europe: Conquête et Intégration

Kristó, Gyula, Hungarian History in the Ninth Century

Róna‐Tas, András, The Hungarians and Early Medieval Europe. An Introduction to Early Medieval Hungarian History.
The Chilean model
Authors: Piñera José
Published: March 2003

In 1981, Chile replaced its government‐run pay‐as‐you‐go pension system with a national system of individual Pension Savings Accounts managed by the private sector. The new system has contributed to the increase in the country's savings rate, the productivity of capital and the rate of economic growth. More important, Chilean workers now have property rights over their own pension contributions and enjoy much higher pensions than under the old system.
Fiscal constraints and financial regulation in economic and monetary union
Authors: Whittaker John
Published: March 2003

It is already well understood that economic and monetary union (EMU) will imply the centralisation of much of economic policy, including the setting of the euro interest rate and restrictions on the fiscal freedom of participating countries. In this article it is argued that fiscal harmonisation will go further than an obligation to adhere to the deficit limit of the‘convergence criteria’: It is also deduced that central control over the regulation of financial institutions will be necessary for EMU to function.
Three principles for sound water policy
Authors: Cowen Tyler
Published: March 2003

Three economic principles are often neglected when formulating water policy. First, the quantity of water supplied is of paramount importance for policy not the price of water. Water policy should be judged by how much high‐quality water is supplied, not by whether that policy meets some distributional objective. Second, the regulated alternatives for water policy have performed poorly. Regulated monopolies, concessions and government ownership have failed to deliver satisfactory results. Third, the real debate is between regulated and unregulated privatisation, not privatisation versus government ownership. The debate over water policy should move in a more free market direction.
The role of income tax in student loan repayments
Authors: West Edwin G.
Published: March 2003

West keeps score of the continuing and growing inadequacies of the British student loan scheme to 1998 and shows how an income‐contingent loan could better satisfy its aims. He explores a common objection to any form of student loan scheme, that students pay for their university education through progressive income taxes. West shows how this argument falls short, and hence that some form of income contingent loan is required if equity and efficiency are to be satisfied.
Income: the real and the incomparable
Authors: Tipping David
Published: March 2003

The main propositions of this paper are: inter‐temporal and interspatial comparisons lose meaning when the arrays of goods and services being priced are too dissimilar; the composition and pricing of GDP are a function of income distribution; income tends to circulate among persons of broadly similar wealth and culture; a significant part of what is recorded as final household expenditure is intermediate in nature; public expenditure is intrinsically intermediate, and poses a variety of conceptual difficulties. Growth is associated with changes which undermine the validity of its measurement.
Sex and the state: will Supporting Families help or harm the family?
Authors: Dennis Norman , Erdos George
Published: March 2003

The Green Paper, Supporting Families, is a remarkable hotchpotch of conceptual confusion, logical contradiction and empirical obtuseness. Its message is that there is little to choose between the socially supported institutional family of life‐long monogamy and any private arrangement for handling sexuality, procreation and child‐rearing, the state claiming that it can and will deal with the problems. But Supporting Families merely echoes the ‘arguments,’ and reflects the prejudices, of anti‐family commentators in politics, education, pressure groups and the media. The personal, social and economic problems of the dismemberment of the institutional family will not be solved until public opinion rejects this consensual muddle.
Getting Wisconsin to work
Authors: Rogers Jean
Published: March 2003

Since the mid‐1980s the state of Wisconsin has been pre‐eminent in the field of welfare reform. With a consensus across the political spectrum, the state has pioneered a series of bold and innovative programmes which have slashed cash assistance by $30 million a month, compared with 1987 levels, and reduced its caseload by 85%. The latest programme, Wisconsin Works, is known as W‐2, and is widely regarded as the most successful of the many welfare‐to‐work initiatives which have appeared throughout the USA.
Public Service Broadcasting: A Paradox of our Time
Authors: Sawers David
Published: March 2003

The broadcasting industry remains the last refuge of belief in the virtues of public ownership and public control. The tradition of the free press, privately owned and independent of government, is foreign to broadcasting. The conditions that make free competition possible in broadcasting are now becoming a reality in the UK, but government policy is to strengthen public service broadcasting.
Knowledge, trust and recourse: imperfect substitutes as sources of assurance in emerging economies
Authors: Benson Bruce L.
Published: March 2003

Uncertainty prevents voluntary interactions, but institutions of trust and/or recourse can substitute for knowledge by making promises relatively credible. Trust and various sources of recourse are imperfect substitutes, however, as demonstrated by consideration of the trade‐offs between trust based on repeated dealings, recourse to informal private sanctions such as reputation threats, ostracism sanctions and third‐party dispute resolution through formal commercial organizations operating under customary law, and the state's coercive legal system. The problems of knowledge and interest imply that, though not perfect, private sources of trust and recourse are superior in emerging markets to state‐provided recourse.
Inequality and capitalism
Authors: Walters Sir Alan
Published: March 2003

By participation in lotteries, people reject the goals of equality of outcome or of opportunity ‐ fortunately because both are infeasible.
Can European Union survive?
Authors: Harris Lord
Published: March 2003

The Treaty of Rome promised European economic integration through free trade in goods, services and capital. Instead, Brussels has imposed ever‐increasing regulation, which must weaken adaptation to global competition.
A small business perspective on regulation in the UK
Authors: Fletcher Ian
Published: March 2003

Despite 15 years of initiatives the issue of regulation remains near the top of the business agenda. This article explores the history of the issue, the drivers of government regulation, the success and failure of previous initiatives, research on the impact of regulation, the current scene and areas where there is scope for improvement. The slant is on small businesses and the need to bring more of a small business focus to policy‐making.
In the City
Authors: Congdon Tim
Published: March 2003

The UK's successful service industries
Transforming the NHS: what chance for the new government?
Authors: Dixon Jennifer
Published: March 2003

This paper reviews Labour's record on the NHS since the 1997 general election. The record shows increased financial investment especially since 2002, coupled with a marked centralisation of strategy and management which is proving counter‐productive to further modernisation.
Current trends and future directions for the Canadian healthcare system
Authors: Coyte Peter C.
Published: March 2003

This paper outlines the structure of healthcare in Canada and describes trends in health expenditures. Particular attention is paid to trends in Canada's most populous province, Ontario. Three temporal episodes of health expenditure growth in Ontario are identified: 1980–91, a period of rapid growth; 1991–98, a period of restraint; and 1998‐present, a period of expenditure resurgence. Health policy initiatives designed to enhance the efficient, effective and equitable access to healthcare services are briefly reviewed.
PETROL TAXES AND CONGESTION CHARGES
Authors: Walters Alan
Published: March 2003

Congestion charges should be introduced for road users, counterbalanced by a drastic reduction in road fuel taxes.
SAATCHI, SENSATION, AND WHY CONTEMPORAR Y ART SHOULD NOT BE CONCEDED TO THE LEFT
Authors: Smedley Bunny
Published: March 2003

Commentators from the ‘Right’ have contributed little to ‘is‐it‐art’ discussions. The Saatchi Sensation exhibition of 1997 offers the opportunity to explain what contribution anti‐socialist, anti‐collectivist writers might make. In particular, they should be honest in their response to contemporary art rather than treating it as a no‐go area.
OF CABBAGES AND KINGS
Authors: Erickson Stephen A.
Published: March 2003

Culture and economics provide different attitudes towards the ‘… complexities, confusions and aspirations of human life.’ There are serious tensions between the two belief systems and it is not clear to what extent there can be serious and thoughtful conversations between them.
MARKETS, TACIT KNOWLEDGE AND EDUCATION
Authors: Prabhakar Rajiv
Published: March 2003

James Tooley argues that markets in education are both feasible and desirable. Focusing on compulsory schooling he advocates liberalisation organised around individual learning accounts and competing suppliers. He argues his views are implicitly informed by Hayek's economic analysis. I build on this here by drawing particular attention to Hayek's distinction between tacit and codifiable knowledge. I argue this makes Tooley's theoretical critique of compulsory schooling even more far‐reaching, as well as pointing to additional policy reforms. I compare these implications with actual schools policy under New Labour.
DIGITAL MEDIA AND THE ECONOMICS OF CRIME
Authors: Cameron Samuel
Published: March 2003

Digital crime is an area where the application of the economics of crime is complex. In a nutshell, the essential economic problem of digi‐crime is the impact of technological progress making transactions costs of enforcement potentially too high, partly because of the low costs of copyright infringement due to technological advance, for there to be substantial amounts of deterrence from punishment.
PENSIONS AND PUBLIC CHOICE: THE ROAD TO MYNERS
Authors: Arthur Terry
Published: March 2003

The Myners Review of Institutional Investment is the latest of several classic examples of how Public Choice theory can be applied to the financial services industry. It demonstrates changing objectives and lack of knowledge and satisfies the vested interests of government and the pension fund advisory industry.
BETTER THAN KYOTO: CLIMATE STABILITY BONDS
Authors: Horesh Ronnie
Published: March 2003

The Kyoto Treaty is flawed in that it attempts to tackle greenhouse gas emissions, rather than climate instability. This article describes a new financial instrument, Climate Stability Bonds, which would inject market incentives into the achievement of a stable climate. The bonds would be redeemed only when a specified degree of climate stability has been achieved. Because the bonds reward the desired outcome, rather than activities, programmes or institutions, they would provide incentives to achieve climate stability more cost‐effectively than Kyoto.
EDITORIAL: TAX REFORM AND SIMPLIFICATION
Authors: Myddelton D. R.
Published: March 2003

Major tax reform to simplify the UK tax system is possible. Merging income taxes, social security taxes and corporation tax into only a single flat‐rate of tax on all incomes would be a radical start. Avoiding taxes on income and expenditure which are ‘too high’ requires major reductions in government spending, mainly on the welfare state. Given the political will, over a period of years we really can hugely improve the UK tax system.
TAX COMPETITION
Authors: Chown John
Published: March 2003

In the modern world, capital enterprise and skilled labour are increasingly mobile, and naturally attracted to countries with low taxes. Indeed tax competition can be healthy, and far preferable to a ‘tax collectors’ cartel.’ The right of the fiscally oppressed to move themselves and their capital elsewhere is a great defender of economic freedom.
Businessmen and land ownership in the late nineteenth century
Authors: Nicholas Tom
Published: March 2003

This article analyses the proportions of personal to real estate wealth for a group of 295 businessmen profiled in the Dictionary of business biography. It shows that businessmen who owned land on a large scale in the late nineteenth century were a comparatively small group who retained a small proportion of their total wealth in landed assets. Low levels of social mobility are identified as a function of land purchase, and new insights are given into the relationship between wealth, status, and land ownership. Any integration of business and landed wealth in this period was not a consequence of businessmen becoming landowners.
The expansion of the south‐western fisheries in late medieval England
Authors: Kowaleski Maryanne
Published: March 2003

This article argues that the expansion of marine fishing in south‐western England from the late fourteenth century to the early sixteenth was part of the maritime sector's critical, but unappreciated, contribution to the rising prosperity of the region. Revenues from fishing represented a substantial supplement to the income of the fisher‐farmers who dominated the industry; promoted employment in ancillary industries such as fish curing; improved the seasonal distribution of maritime work; and stimulated capital investment in ships, nets, and other equipment because of the share system that characterized the division of profits within fishing enterprises. In offering what was probably the chief source of employment within the maritime sector, fishing also provided the ‘nursery of seamen’ so prized by the Tudor navy, and built the navigational experience that underpinned later voyages of exploration.
Managerial failure in late Victorian Britain?: Land use and English agriculture
Authors: Hunt E.H. , Pam S.J.
Published: March 2003

This article focuses upon the neglected role of agriculture in Britain's relative economic decline. Landlords and farmers stand accused of responding inadequately to the flood of American cereal imports. Land‐use changes are analysed by soil type and access to urban markets, revealing a range of opportunities and restraints, and an appropriate variety of responses. Other aspects of agriculturalists' responses to depression remain to be examined, but this exercise finds no evidence of significant managerial shortcomings. Rather, the interim verdict is similar to that on the performance of those British industrialists whose once‐savaged reputations have been partly redeemed by the researches of McCloskey, Sandberg, et al.
Villein rents in thirteenth–century England: an analysis of the Hundred Rolls of 1279–1280
Authors: Kanzaka Junichi
Published: March 2003

What factors played the principal role in determining the level of villein rents in thirteenth–century England? Historians have assumed three factors: economic and demographic forces, seigneurial power, and custom. This analysis of the Hundred Rolls of 1279–80 for Cambridgeshire, Huntingdonshire, Oxfordshire, and Warwickshire indicates that community custom was the most important factor. It is only on ecclesiastical estates in Huntingdonshire that seigneurial power had a decisive influence in imposing heavy labour services on villeins. Furthermore, since villeins were protected by custom, the level of their rents was usually lower than that of competitive freehold rents, which reflected market forces.
The ‘revolt of the early modernists’ and the ‘first modern economy’: an assessment
Authors: Van Zanden Jan Luiten
Published: March 2003

Established views of the early modern economy have changed considerably. De Vries and Van der Woude maintain that the Dutch economy was exceptional in its process of ‘modern economic growth’ in 1500–1815. This article argues that economic growth in the Netherlands was probably not much faster than in England, as is clear from the development of real wages. The modernity of the Dutch economy in this period appears to be a product of economic and institutional changes in the middle ages.
Fiscal Policy in the UK
Authors: Henry Brian
Published: March 2003

Although the conduct of macroeconomic policy in the UK has been very good by historical standards, Brian Henry argues in this article that there are shortcomings in the framework which mean it is less well suited to adverse shocks than it should be. He recommends that an extension of the present framework be made setting up a committee charged with the independent assessment of fiscal policy. This would help mitigate the lack of balance between monetary and fiscal policy which is evident at present. Fiscal judgements based on cyclical adjustments are too heavily dependant on domestic factors and underestimate the effects of the cycle on revenues. In consequence, fiscal policy, rather than supporting monetary, has been loosened and this indirectly accounts for the continuing strength of the exchange rate.
Aggregate Homothetic Separability
Authors: Chambers Robert G.
Published: March 2003

This paper develops necessary and sufficient conditions for an aggregate sector cost function, derived from industry cost functions, to exhibit homothetic separability.
A Tale of Two Collectives: Sulphur versus Nitrogen Oxides Emission Reduction in Europe
Authors: Murdoch James C. , Sandler Tod , Sargent Keith
Published: March 2003

A theoretical model of emission reductions is specified that accounts for voluntary and non‐voluntary behaviour regarding the adherence to the Helsinki and Sofia Protocols, which mandated emission reductions for sulphur (S) and nitrogen oxides (NOx), respectively. From this model, we derive an econometric specification for the demand for emission reductions that adjusts for the spatial dispersion of the pollutant. When tested for 25 European nations, the model performs well for sulphur cutbacks. Less satisfying results are obtained for NOx, because the model’s assumption of a unitary actor at the national level is less descriptive. Collective action considerations indicate that sulphur emissions are easier to control than those of NOx.
An Econometric Model of Farm Tenures in Fifteenth‐Century Florence
Authors: Pudney S. , Galassi F.L. , Mealli F.
Published: March 2003

We estimate a discrete‐choice model of farm tenures in fifteenth‐century Florence, using data in the form of an unbalanced panel, with individual farms nested within landlords’ total property holdings. The probabilities of wage, rental and sharecropping tenures are estimated, allowing for landlord‐specific random effects. Specification tests are used to validate the model. Our results emphasize the role of long‐lived fixed assets (vines), vulnerable to damage by short‐term over‐production, as a factor favouring sharecropping (which ‘taxes’ over‐production). However, we find evidence against theories emphasizing high monitoring costs as an influence favouring rental contracts.
Low Pay Dynamics and Transition Probabilities
Authors: Stewart Mark B. , Swaffield Joanna K.
Published: March 2003

This paper models low pay transitions in Britain using a bivariate probit model with endogenous selection to address the ‘initial conditions’problem and parental variables as instruments. The exogeneity of the initial state is strongly rejected and results in considerable overstatement of theeffects of explanatory factors. The probability of being low paid dependsstrongly on low pay in the previous year. Restricting attention to those who remain employees results in an overstatement of the probability of the low paid moving up the earnings distribution, but is not found to have much effect on the estimated effects of explanatory variables.
Occupational Downgrading and Upgrading in Britain
Authors: Evans Phil
Published: March 2003

The willingness of workers to move down an occupational hierarchy is a potentially important source of flexibility in the labour market. But, relatively little is known about the scale or pattern of occupational up‐ and downgrading. This paper examines who downgrades and the cyclical structure of up‐ and downgrading. We find that occupational downgrading is surprisingly large relative to flows into unemployment. Individuals who have a high payoff to skilled work, such as educated workers, are less likely to downgrade. Contrary to expectations, the rate of downgrading is found to be greater in the boom, while upgrading follows the more conventional expectation of also being procyclical. This finding is interpreted as evidence consistent with the rationing of jobs in the downgrading process, contrary to the assumptions of simple dual labour market models.
Trade Dynamics and Endogenous Growth: An Overlapping‐Generations Analysis
Authors: Mountford Andrew
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the dynamic implications of international trade in a two‐sector overlapping‐generations economy with endogenous growth. It analyses the global dynamics of this model for both a closed economy and a two‐country world economy. It shows how international trade can cause the world economy to sort itself out into groups of fast and slow‐growing economies and can also cause one country to catch up and overtake another’s growth rate. It thus provides theoretical support for empirical papers which find that the world distribution of income is diverging.
Anticipated Inflation in a Monetary Economy with Endogenous Growth
Authors: Chang Wen‐Ya , Lai Ching‐Chong
Published: March 2003

This paper makes a new attempt to investigate the role of anticipatedmonetary growth in economic growth. Combining the Barro (1990)–Rebelo (1991)‐type endogenous growth model with Sidrauski's (1967) framework, we show that the pre‐announcement of money supply behaviour may have significant effects on the rate of growth during the transition process. The key factor indetermining adjustment patterns of the economy to anticipated monetary changes is the degree of relative risk aversion. However, changes in the rate of monetary growth do not affect the rate of long‐run growth regardless of the degree of relative risk aversion.
International Migration and Growth in Developed Countries: A Theoretical Analysis
Authors: Lundborg Per , Segerstrom Paul S.
Published: March 2003

We use a two‐country version of the quality ladders endogenous growth model and show that free international migration raises world growth if it is driven by imbalances in labour supplies. International migration may, however, lower growth if it is induced by policy differences across, countries. Moreover, other things being equal, workers want to migrate to less populated countries, to countries that subsidize R&D less, to countries with lower tariffs, and to countries with wealthier consumers. Neither structural nor public policy differences generate any differences in growth rates across countries when tariffs are set at non‐prohibitively high levels.
Household Unemployment and the Labour Supply of Married Women
Authors: Bingley Paul , Walker Ian
Published: March 2003

A recent reform to the UK unemployment insurance (UI) system has reduced the duration of entitlement from 12 to six months. The UI and welfare systems interact in the UK in such a way that exhaustion of UI for married individuals has potentially large disincentive effects on the labour supply of spouses. A model of labour supply is estimated for married women allowing for endogenous unemployment durations of husbands and wives. We distinguish between transfer programme induced incentive effects; correlation between labour supply and wages within couples; complementarity between the leisure times of spouses; and a discouraged worker effect.
Insider Trading, Herding Behaviour and Market Plungers in the British Horse–race Betting Market
Authors: Law David , Peel David A.
Published: March 2003

Crafts [N. F. R. Crafts (1985) Economica, 52, 295—304] suggested that a pronounced shortening of bookmaker odds in horse–race betting markets could indicate the presence of insider traders. This paper uses the Shin [H. S. Shin (1993) Economic Journal, 103, 1141—53] measure of the incidence of insider trading at the beginning of the betting period (opening prices) and at the end of it (starting prices) to distinguish the shortening of odds caused by insider trading from that caused by herding behaviour. It turns out that significant positive betting returns are achieved when shortening odds are accompanied by a rise in the Shin measure; when they are accompanied by a fall, returns are negative, suggesting herd behaviour.
Acquisitions and Investment
Authors: Erard Brian , Schaller Huntley
Published: March 2003

We derive a simple theoretical framework in which acquisitions are treated as an alternative way of obtaining capital goods. Our framework predicts that both investment and acquisitions are positively related to a firm’s shadow value of capital. We transform our theoretical specification into an econometric model, which we then estimate using a long panel data‐set spanning 503 US firms over 15 consecutive years. Our results indicate that an increase in the shadow value of capital has approximately the same proportionate effect on the level of acquisitions as it does on investment. This result proves to be robust to a variety of alternative specifications.
Measurement of Political Effects in the United States Economy: A Study of the 1992 Presidential Election
Authors: Herron Michael C. , Lavin James , Cram Donald , Silver Jay
Published: March 2003

This paper analyzes the link between the 1992 United States presidential election outcome and a collection of American economic sectors. Based on data from the 1992 Iowa Political Stock Market and campaign‐period stock portfolio behavior, we identify 15 economic sectors, of 74 examined, whose profits varied in a statistically significant manner with movements in Iowa Market‐based measures of presidential candidate standing. And, in light of 1992 campaign rhetoric pertaining to defense policy and environmental issues, we build on this finding with an analysis of selected defense firms and firms known to be toxic waste emitters.
A Test of Political Control of the Bureaucracy: The Case of Mergers
Authors: Coate Malcolm B.
Published: March 2003

This paper tests a model of political control of the bureaucracy using a data set of mergers evaluated by the Federal Trade Commission between 1983 and 2000. The results support a sophisticated control model in which the President sets the agenda within the scope of policies acceptable to Congress. Changes in Presidential administration and in the composition of Congress can, but do not necessarily, affect merger policy. Instead, the shift in policy depends on how the institutions of the Presidency and Congress interact both in the previous and current periods.
Electoral systems and the effects of political events on the stock market: The Belgian case
Authors: Vuchelen Jef
Published: March 2003

Efficient stock markets react to news. News about future economic policies can be derived from political events such as elections, the formation of new governments, changes in the composition of governments, etc. However, the news content of these events depends on the electoral system. In the American electoral system, characterized as it is by majority representation and single–party governments, elections generate news to the extent that the results are unexpected. In countries with proportional representation, governments are frequently multi–party coalitions whose composition is difficult to predict from the election results. These results therefore contain much less information about future policies. Our results, obtained for the Brussels stock market, support this distinction. Furthermore, the ideological composition of the government also matters; these effects support a rational partisan approach.
Extending the economics of disorganization
Authors: Bevan Alan A. , Estrin Saul , Hare Paul G. , Stern Jon
Published: March 2003

Many of the states of the former Soviet Union have experienced a dramatic collapse of output during transition, which has not yet been reversed in a sustainable way. The economics of disorganization, proposed by Blanchard (1997) and tested empirically by Blanchard and Kremer (1997), reasons that this phenomenon can be explained by specificity of inputs and the breakdown of traditional domestic supply linkages. We replicate the Blanchard‐Kremer study for Ukraine and Kazakhstan, and also find that longer and more complex domestic supply chains are associated with greater reductions in output. When we extend their analysis to incorporate measures of the complexity of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) trade and non‐CIS trade however, we find that complexity of non‐CIS trade is the significant factor in explaining the output collapse. We therefore argue that the disintegration of the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance and the requirement of hard currency trade, are equally, if not more, significant in explaining the output declines experienced by Ukraine and Kazakhstan.
Poverty and monetary transfers in Belarus: Some options for gradual reforms
Authors: Liberati Paolo
Published: March 2003

In this paper we shall be analyzing gradual poverty reducing reforms for monetary transfers in Belarus. Some evidence is offered in support of the claim that the effectiveness of the existing ‘categorical’ system of transfers might be improved by redirecting resources to specific groups of households. Using a decomposition of households into socio‐economic groups, feasible marginal reforms are suggested, and their robustness is checked by both experimenting with different poverty lines and introducing a simplified form of labour supply responsiveness. Based on these findings, a microsimulation of a hypothetical transfer change among different groups of households is run. According to this microsimulation, all aggregate poverty indicators could be reduced.
The impact of unemployment on inequality and poverty in OECD countries
Authors: Martínez Rosa , Ayala Luis , Ruiz‐Huerta Jesús
Published: March 2003

The purpose of this research is to examine the contribution of unemployment to income inequality and poverty in various OECD countries. These relationships have been explored using Luxembourg Income Study micro‐data. Considerable differences across OECD countries are revealed through the use of within‐household unemployment distributions. These differences help to explain most of the observed divergences in the relationship between unemployment and income distribution, in conjunction with the heterogeneous influence of social benefits on the economic position of the unemployed in these countries. A sub‐group decomposition analysis corroborates the limited effect of unemployment on income distribution in most of the considered countries. However, it seems clear that the unemployed are among those with the highest risk of experiencing poverty.

JEL classification: D31, I32, J31.
The impact of China’s WTO accession on trade and economic relations across the Taiwan Strait
Authors: Wang Zhi
Published: March 2003

This paper evaluates the impact of China’s World Trade Organisation (WTO) accession on trade and economic relations across the Taiwan Strait and its implications for the rest of the world by a recursive dynamic, 17‐region, 25‐sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model according to actual market access commitments that China and Taiwan have made to date. The simulation results show that both China and Taiwan will substantially benefit from their WTO memberships, and their economic interdependence and their dependence within the rest of the world will further deepen. The rest of the world may also benefit because of the expansion of world trade and improvement of their international terms of trade, but some developing countries with an endowment structure similar to China, like those in South America and Southeast Asia, may experience keener competition in labour‐intensive exports and lower prices for their products.

JEL classification: F1, F02, C68, P52.