bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
An In-Flight Calibration Method for Near-Real-Time Humidity Measurements with the Airborne MOZAIC Sensor
Authors: Smit Herman G. J. , Volz-Thomas Andreas , Helten Manfred , Paetz Werner , Kley Dieter
Published: May 2008

A new in-flight calibration (IFC) method is described for the humidity sensor flown routinely since 1994 on the Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In-Service Aircraft (MOZAIC) program’s aircraft. The IFC method corrects the potential drift of the sensor offset at zero relative humidity, which is the critical parameter in determining the uncertainty of the measurements. The sensor offset is determined from the measurements themselves as obtained during periods when the aircraft is flying in the lower stratosphere at or above the hygropause, where the H2O mixing ratio reaches well-defined minimum values of about 5 ppmv and the contribution of atmospheric H2O to the sensor signal is minimal. The selection of stratospheric data is achieved with the help of potential temperature, which can be calculated in situ from measured temperature and pressure. The IFC method is capable of providing humidity measurements in near–real time with an uncertainty of ±8% RH at the surface and ±7% RH in the upper troposphere.

For validation, the IFC method was applied to 5 yr of archived raw signals from the MOZAIC aircraft. The resulting humidity data are in good agreement (within 2% RH) with the original MOZAIC data that used monthly pre- and postflight calibrations of the sensor. The standard deviation of the differences varies with altitude between ±4% and ±6% RH, which is comparable to the accuracy of the MOZAIC laboratory calibrations. Compared to MOZAIC operation based on monthly calibrations in the laboratory, the use of IFC will substantially reduce the efforts for maintenance and thus will enable operation of the sensor on a large fleet of in-service aircraft for near-real-time measurements of humidity in the troposphere. Because the IFC method will not work on aircraft that never enter the lower stratosphere, for example, aircraft that fly exclusively regional routes or in the tropics, regular offline calibrations will remain important for such aircraft.
Validation of the Global Relocatable Tide/Surge Model PCTides
Authors: Posey Pamela G. , Allard Richard A. , Preller Ruth H. , Dawson Gretchen M.
Published: May 2008

The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) has developed a global, relocatable, tide/surge forecast system called PCTides. This system was designed in response to a U.S. Navy requirement to rapidly produce tidal predictions anywhere in the world. The system is composed of a two-dimensional barotropic ocean model driven by tidal forcing only or in conjunction with surface wind and pressure forcing. PCTides is unique in its ability to forecast tidal parameters for a user-specified latitude/longitude domain easily and quickly, and is especially useful in areas where observations are nonexistent. PCTides provides short-term (daily to weekly) predictions of water-level elevation and depth-averaged ocean currents. The system has been tested in numerous regions and validated against observations collected in conjunction with several navy exercises.
Objective Array Design: Application to the Tropical Indian Ocean
Authors: Sakov Pavel , Oke Peter R.
Published: May 2008

A simple, versatile, computationally efficient ensemble-based method for objectively designing an observation array is described. The method seeks to compute the observation array that minimizes the analysis error variance, according to Kalman filter theory. While most elements of the method have been described elsewhere, this paper attempts to present a simple, yet comprehensive, recipe for array design based on an ensemble of anomalies that represents the background error covariance. The versatility of the method is demonstrated through a series of applications to the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO). The first application uses model-generated fields of high-pass-filtered mixed layer depth to design an array to monitor intraseasonal variability. The second uses gridded observations of sea level anomaly to design an array to monitor intraseasonal-to-interannual variability. For both applications, the objectively designed arrays are compared to an array that will soon be implemented under the auspices of the Climate Variability and Predictability–Global Ocean Observing System (CLIVAR–GOOS) Indian Ocean Panel (CG-IOP). The authors conclude that the CG-IOP array produces results that compare well to the objectively designed arrays for intraseasonal variability, and observations to the east and northeast of the TIO and south of India are most important for resolving intraseasonal variability. The authors also find that observations near 9°S, where seasonal Rossby waves dominate, are important for observing seasonal-to-interannual variability. The described method for objective array design can be applied to a wide range of geophysical applications where time series of gridded modeled or observed fields are available.
Complex EOF Analysis as a Method to Separate Barotropic and Baroclinic Velocity Structure in Shallow Water
Authors: Edwards Catherine R. , Seim Harvey E.
Published: May 2008

Defining the vertical depth average of measured currents to be barotropic is a widely used method of separating barotropic and baroclinic tidal currents in the ocean. Away from the surface and bottom boundary layers, depth-averaging measured velocity is an excellent estimate of barotropic tidal flow, and internal tidal dynamics can be well represented by the difference between the measured currents and their depth average in the vertical. However, in shallow and/or energetic tidal environments such as the shelf of the South Atlantic Bight (SAB), bottom boundary layers can occupy a significant fraction of the water column, and depth averaging through the bottom boundary layer can overestimate the barotropic current by several tens of centimeters per second near bottom. The depth-averaged current fails to capture the bottom boundary layer structure associated with the barotropic tidal signal, and the resultant estimate of baroclinic tidal currents can mimic a bottom-trapped internal tide.

Complex empirical orthogonal function (CEOF) analysis is proposed as a method to retain frictional effects in the estimate of the barotropic tidal currents and allow an improved determination of the baroclinic currents. The method is applied to a midshelf region of the SAB dominated by tides and friction to quantify the effectiveness of CEOF analysis to represent internal structure underlying a strong barotropic signal in shallow water. Using examples of synthesized and measured data, EOF estimates of the barotropic and baroclinic modes of motion are compared to those made using depth averaging. The estimates of barotropic tidal motion using depth-averaging and CEOF methods produce conflicting predictions of the frequencies at which there is meaningful baroclinic variability. The CEOF method preserves the frictional boundary layer as part of the barotropic tidal current structure in the gravest mode, providing a more accurate representation of internal structure in higher modes. The application of CEOF techniques to isolate internal structure co-occurring with highly energetic tidal dynamics in shallow water is a significant test of the method. Successful separation of barotropic and baroclinic modes of motion suggests that, by fully capturing the effects of friction associated with the barotropic tide, CEOF analysis is a viable technique to facilitate examination of the internal tide in similar environments.
Simultaneous Estimation of Microphysical Parameters and Atmospheric State with Simulated Radar Data and Ensemble Square Root Kalman Filter. Part I: Sensitivity Analysis and Parameter Identifiability
Authors: Tong Mingjing , Xue Ming
Published: May 2008

The possibility of estimating fundamental parameters common in single-moment ice microphysics schemes using radar observations is investigated for a model-simulated supercell storm by examining parameter sensitivity and identifiability. These parameters include the intercept parameters for rain, snow, and hail/graupel, and the bulk densities of snow and hail/graupel. These parameters are closely involved in the definition of drop/particle size distributions of microphysical species but often assume highly uncertain specified values.

The sensitivity of model forecast within data assimilation cycles to the parameter values, and the issue of solution uniqueness of the estimation problem, are examined. The ensemble square root filter (EnSRF) is employed for model state estimation. Sensitivity experiments show that the errors in the microphysical parameters have a larger impact on model microphysical fields than on wind fields; radar reflectivity observations are therefore preferred over those of radial velocity for microphysical parameter estimation. The model response time to errors in individual parameters are also investigated. The results suggest that radar data should be used at about 5-min intervals for parameter estimation. The response functions calculated from ensemble mean forecasts for all five individual parameters show concave shapes, with unique minima occurring at or very close to the true values; therefore, true values of these parameters can be retrieved at least in those cases where only one parameter contains error.

The identifiability of multiple parameters together is evaluated from their correlations with forecast reflectivity. Significant levels of correlation are found that can be interpreted physically. As the number of uncertain parameters increases, both the level and the area coverage of significant correlations decrease, implying increased difficulties with multiple-parameter estimation. The details of the estimation procedure and the results of a complete set of estimation experiments are presented in Part II of this paper.
Simultaneous Estimation of Microphysical Parameters and Atmospheric State with Simulated Radar Data and Ensemble Square Root Kalman Filter. Part II: Parameter Estimation Experiments
Authors: Tong Mingjing , Xue Ming
Published: May 2008

The ensemble Kalman filter method is applied to correct errors in five fundamental microphysical parameters that are closely involved in the definition of drop/particle size distributions of microphysical species in a commonly used single-moment ice microphysics scheme, for a model-simulated supercell storm, using radar data. The five parameters include the intercept parameters for rain, snow, and hail/graupel and the bulk densities of hail/graupel and snow. The ensemble square root Kalman filter (EnSRF) is employed for simultaneous state and parameter estimation.

The five microphysical parameters are estimated individually or in different combinations starting from different initial guesses. A data selection procedure based on correlation information is introduced, which combined with variance inflation, effectively avoids the collapse of the spread of parameter ensemble, hence filter divergence. Parameter estimation results demonstrate, for the first time, that the ensemble-based method can be used to correct model errors in microphysical parameters through simultaneous state and parameter estimation, using radar reflectivity observations. When error exists in only one of the microphysical parameters, the parameter can be successfully estimated without exception. The estimation of multiple parameters is less reliable, mainly because the identifiability of the parameters becomes weaker and the problem might have no unique solution. The parameter estimation results are found to be very sensitive to the realization of the initial parameter ensemble, which is mainly related to the use of relatively small ensemble sizes. Increasing ensemble size generally improves the parameter estimation. The quality of parameter estimation also depends on the quality of observation data. It is also found that the results of state estimation are generally improved when simultaneous parameter estimation is performed, even when the estimated parameter values are not very accurate.
Potential Vorticity Diagnosis of the Severe Convective Regime. Part I: Methodology
Authors: Gold David A. , Nielsen-Gammon John W.
Published: May 2008

Observational and modeling studies have shown that shear and instability are powerful predictors of the likelihood of severe weather and tornadoes. To the extent that upper-tropospheric forecast errors can be described as potential vorticity (PV) anomalies on the forecasted PV field, knowing (and being able to quantify) the effects of such errors on shear and instability would allow forecasters to anticipate the effects of those errors on the likely mode of severe weather. To test the sensitivity of the severe convective environment to PV fluctuations, a PV inversion framework is adopted that utilizes nonlinear balance. The observed PV field is modified in a way that mimics realistic perturbations of trough intensity, location, or shape. Soundings, including moisture profiles, are reconstructed from the balanced geopotential height field assuming that air parcels conserve mixing ratio while their isentropic surfaces are displaced upward or downward by the addition of anomalous PV. Unperturbed balanced soundings agree reasonably well with full, unbalanced soundings, and differences are attributable to departures from nonlinear balance in areas of strong vorticity or acceleration. Balanced vertical wind profiles do not include the effects of friction, so the vertical shear of the balanced wind departs unacceptably from total shear within the lowest 1 km of the troposphere. The balanced wind perturbations are added to the total analyzed shear profile to estimate the effect of PV perturbations on shear and storm-relative helicity. By this process, the importance of typical or hypothesized upper-tropospheric forecast errors may be addressed in an idealized, case-study, or operational context.
Potential Vorticity Diagnosis of the Severe Convective Regime. Part III: The Hesston Tornado Outbreak
Authors: Gold David A. , Nielsen-Gammon John W.
Published: May 2008

Nonlinear balance potential vorticity (PV) inversion is used to diagnose the sensitivity of the severe convective parameter space to the amplitude of a subsynoptic-scale PV anomaly on 13 March 1990, a day on which a significant tornado outbreak impacted the Great Plains. PV surgery is used to both amplify and remove the PV anomaly, and the contemporaneous impact on various convective parameters is subsequently quantified by using piecewise PV inversion to compute the changes in those parameters attributable to each PV alteration. It is found that amplifying the anomaly increases the CAPE by amounts typically ranging from 20% to 30% within the atmospheric columns experiencing the maximum PV increase. Ascent is increased slightly downshear of the PV anomaly, consistent with extant conceptual models governing synoptic-scale forcing for vertical motion. Amplifying the PV anomaly increases deep-layer shear over the southern half of the outbreak region and reduces storm-relative helicity over the northern half, primarily through changes in the estimated storm motion vector. Removing the anomaly produces complementary changes of the opposite sign. Thresholds of several commonly used convective parameters are chosen on the basis of prior empirical studies, and the horizontal displacement of these threshold contours produced by the PV alterations reveals that relatively modest subsynoptic-scale PV changes would not likely change the predominant convective mode during the Hesston outbreak.
Raindrop Size Distribution Measurements in Tropical Cyclones
Authors: Tokay Ali , Bashor Paul G. , Habib Emad , Kasparis Takis
Published: May 2008

Characteristics of the raindrop size distribution in seven tropical cyclones have been studied through impact-type disdrometer measurements at three different sites during the 2004–06 Atlantic hurricane seasons. One of the cyclones has been observed at two different sites. High concentrations of small and/or midsize drops were observed in the presence or absence of large drops. Even in the presence of large drops, the maximum drop diameter rarely exceeded 4 mm. These characteristics of raindrop size distribution were observed in all stages of tropical cyclones, unless the storm was in the extratropical stage where the tropical cyclone and a midlatitude frontal system had merged. The presence of relatively high concentrations of large drops in extratropical cyclones resembled the size distribution in continental thunderstorms. The integral rain parameters of drop concentration, liquid water content, and rain rate at fixed reflectivity were therefore lower in extratropical cyclones than in tropical cyclones. In tropical cyclones, at a disdrometer-calculated reflectivity of 40 dBZ, the number concentration was 700 ± 100 drops m−3, while the liquid water content and rain rate were 0.90 ± 0.05 g m−3 and 18.5 ± 0.5 mm h−1, respectively. The mean mass diameter, on the other hand, was 1.67 ± 0.3 mm. The comparison of raindrop size distributions between Atlantic tropical cyclones and storms that occurred in the central tropical Pacific island of Roi-Namur revealed that the number density is slightly shifted toward smaller drops, resulting in higher-integral rain parameters and lower mean mass and maximum drop diameters at the latter site. Considering parameterization of the raindrop size distribution in tropical cyclones, characteristics of the normalized gamma distribution parameters were examined with respect to reflectivity. The mean mass diameter increased rapidly with reflectivity, while the normalized intercept parameter had an increasing trend with reflectivity. The shape parameter, on the other hand, decreased in a reflectivity range from 10 to 20 dBZ and remained steady at higher reflectivities. Considering the repeatability of the characteristics of the raindrop size distribution, a second impact disdrometer that was located 5.3 km away from the primary site in Wallops Island, Virginia, had similar size spectra in selected tropical cyclones.
The Morphology of Eyewall Lightning Outbreaks in Two Category 5 Hurricanes*
Authors: Squires K. , Businger S.
Published: May 2008

Data from the Long-Range Lightning Detection Network (LLDN), the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite, and reconnaissance aircraft are used to analyze the morphology of lightning outbreaks in the eyewalls of Hurricanes Rita and Katrina, two of the strongest storms in the Atlantic hurricane record. Each hurricane produced eyewall lightning outbreaks during the period of most rapid intensification, during eyewall replacement cycles, and during the time period that encompassed the maximum intensity for each storm.

Within the effective range of the aircraft radar, maxima in eyewall strike density were collocated with maxima in radar reflectivity. High lightning strike rates were also consistently associated with TRMM low brightness temperatures and large precipitation ice concentration (PIC) values. The strike density ratio between the eyewall region and the outer rainband region was 6:1 for Hurricane Rita and 1:1 for Hurricane Katrina. This result is in contrast to those of previous remote lightning studies, which found that outer rainbands dominated the lightning distribution. The differences are shown to be at least in part the result of the more limited range of the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data used in the earlier studies. Finally, implications of the results for the use of LLDN lightning data to remotely examine changes in hurricane intensity and structural evolution are discussed.
A Dynamical Downscaling Case Study for Typhoons in Southeast Asia Using a Regional Climate Model
Authors: Feser Frauke , von Storch Hans
Published: May 2008

This study explores the possibility of reconstructing the weather of Southeast Asia for the last decades using an atmospheric regional climate model, the Climate version of the Lokal-Modell (CLM). For this purpose global National Centers for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP–NCAR) reanalyses data were dynamically downscaled to 50 km and in a double-nesting approach to 18-km grid distance. To prevent the regional model from deviating significantly from the reanalyses with respect to large-scale circulation and large-scale weather phenomena, a spectral nudging technique was used.

The performance of this technique in dealing with Southeast Asian typhoons is now examined by considering an ensemble of one simulated typhoon case. This analysis is new insofar as it deals with simulations done in the climate mode (so that any skill of reproducing the typhoon is not related to details of initial conditions), is done in ensemble mode (the same development is described by several simulations), and is done with a spectral nudging constraint (so that the observed large-scale state is enforced in the model domain). This case indicates that tropical storms that are coarsely described by the reanalyses are correctly identified and tracked; considerably deeper core pressure and higher wind speeds are simulated compared to the driving reanalyses. When the regional atmospheric model is run without spectral nudging, significant intraensemble variability occurs; also additional, nonobserved typhoons form. Thus, the insufficiency of lateral boundary conditions alone for determining the details of the dynamic developments in the interior becomes very clear. The same lateral boundary conditions are consistent with different developments in the interior. Several sensitivity experiments were performed concerning varied grid distances, different initial starting dates of the simulations, and changed spectral nudging parameters.
On the Meteorological Mechanisms Driving Postfire Flash Floods: A Case Study
Authors: Tryhorn Lee , Lynch Amanda , Abramson Rebecca , Parkyn Kevin
Published: May 2008

This paper describes work to improve the understanding of the broad range of factors affecting the occurrence of postfire flooding, with emphasis on an event that occurred in the Alpine Shire, Victoria, Australia, in 2003. Analysis and mesoscale modeling of the conditions surrounding the event suggests that the drivers of the extreme rainfall event were above-average precipitable water in the atmosphere, significant values of CAPE, producing strong updrafts within the thunderstorm capable of supporting large quantities of suspended water droplets, and thunderstorm cell regeneration in the same area. However, atmospheric instability was further enhanced by anabatic breezes, above-average boundary layer moisture, and increased surface heating resulting from reduced surface albedo and soil moisture of the recently burned fire surface. Flash flooding resulted, due to 1) the storm cells likely being pulse wet microbursts, 2) cell regeneration over the same area (very little horizontal movement), and 3) the small catchment size. It is likely that a further contributor to the observed flash flood was the reduced infiltration often observed in recently burned catchments; these factors will be explored in a subsequent hydrologic study. It is intended that the mechanisms elucidated in this study will assist in emergency preparedness in the Alpine Shire. Given the warmer conditions expected with near-term anthropogenic climate change for the Alpine Shire, and the concomitant increase in fires, this causal relationship, even for a relatively rare event, has implications for emergency managers and Alpine Shire residents.
Confidence Intervals and Significance Tests for Spherical Data Derived from Feature Tracking
Authors: Hodges K. I.
Published: May 2008

A methodology is described that improves the efficiency with which statistical estimates of the distribution and mean attributes of dynamical weather systems, such as extratropical cyclones and tropical easterly waves, are derived from ensembles of the system trajectories using spherical kernel estimators. The improvement in the application of the spherical kernel estimators facilitates the use of the resampling methodology to estimate confidence intervals for weather system climatologies and to perform significance tests for the comparison between estimates derived from separate samples, for example, when the track data are partitioned with respect to teleconnection indices. The improvement in the statistical estimation makes use of spherical quad tree data structures based on a hierarchical decomposition of the sphere into spherical triangles into which the data and estimation points are partitioned. Examples are shown of the application of the new methodology to extratropical cyclones identified in reanalysis data of confidence intervals for the climatology and significance tests for differences between the positive and negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation teleconnection.
The Effect of Clustering on the Uncertainty of Differential Reflectivity Measurements
Authors: Jameson A. R. , Kostinski A. B.
Published: May 2008

One of the most important avenues of recent meteorological radar research is the application of polarization techniques to improve radar rainfall estimation. A keystone in many of these methods is the so-called differential reflectivity ZDR, the ratio of the reflectivity factor ZH at horizontal polarization backscattered from a horizontally polarized transmission to that corresponding to a vertically polarized transmission ZV. For such quantitative applications, it is important to understand the statistical accuracy of observations of ZDR. The underlying assumption of all past estimations of meteorological radar uncertainties is that the signals obey Rayleigh statistics. It is now evident, however, that as a radar scans, the meteorological conditions no longer always satisfy the requirements for Rayleigh statistics. In this work, ZDR is reconsidered, but this time within the new framework of non-Rayleigh signal statistics. Using Monte Carlo experiments, it is found that clustering of the scatterers multiplies the standard deviation of ZDR beyond what is always calculated assuming Rayleigh statistics. The magnitude of this enhancement depends on the magnitudes of the clustering index and of the cross correlation between ZH and ZV. Also, it does not depend upon the number of independent samples in an ensemble estimate. An example using real radar data in convective showers suggests that non-Rayleigh signal statistics should be taken into account in future implementations of polarization radar rainfall estimation techniques using ZDR. At the very least, it is time to begin to document the prevalence and magnitude of the clustering index in a wide variety of meteorological conditions.
The Response of a Simplified GCM to Axisymmetric Forcings: Applicability of the Fluctuation–Dissipation Theorem
Authors: Ring Michael J. , Plumb R. Alan
Published: May 2008

Following on their previous work, in which they found the annular modes to be a preferred response of a simplified general circulation model atmosphere to a number of mechanical forcings, the authors now explore the quantitative relationship between forcing and response. In particular, the applicability of the fluctuation–dissipation theorem to this problem is investigated. First, the set of model trials is expanded by including runs in which the applied forcings are thermal rather than mechanical. For thermal forcings confined to the extratropics, “annular mode–like” responses, reminiscent of those found in earlier work, are found, but, as found in previous studies, the response is less like an annular mode when the forcing has significant amplitude in the tropics. Assuming small departures from the control climatology, and making a few further assumptions, the authors derive a theoretical relationship between forcing and response. This relationship is a statement of the fluctuation–dissipation theorem for this problem. The response of the model is found to be qualitatively consistent with the theoretical predictions. However, several aspects of the response diverge quantitatively from the theoretical expectation.
Reply
Authors: Errico Ronald M. , Bauer Peter , Mahfouf Jean-François
Published: May 2008

This is a reply to a set of criticisms regarding a previously published work. It briefly addresses the main criticisms. In particular, it explains why some papers identified as having some fundamental flaws were referenced in the original work without detailed exposition of those flaws. It also explains why parts of the conclusions criticized as being contradictory are, in fact, not. It further highlights the need for more publishing of scientific criticisms.
The Late Fall Extratropical Response to ENSO: Sensitivity to Coupling and Convection in the Tropical West Pacific
Authors: Bladé Ileana , Newman Matthew , Alexander Michael A. , Scott James D.
Published: May 2008

The extratropical response to El Niño in late fall departs considerably from the canonical El Niño signal. Observational analysis suggests that this response is modulated by anomalous forcing in the tropical west Pacific (TWP), so that a strong fall El Niño teleconnection is more likely when warm SST conditions and/or enhanced convection prevail in the TWP. While these TWP SST anomalies may arise from noise and/or long-term variability, they may also be generated by differences between El Niño events, through variations in the tropical “atmospheric bridge.” This bridge typically drives subsidence west of the date line and enhanced trade winds over the far TWP, which cool the ocean. In late fall, however, some relatively weaker and/or more eastward-shifted El Niño events produce a correspondingly weakened and displaced tropical bridge, which results in no surface cooling and enhanced convection in the TWP. Because the North Pacific circulation is very sensitive to forcing from the TWP at this time of year, the final outcome is a strong extratropical El Niño teleconnection.

This hypothesis is partly supported by regionally coupled ensemble GCM simulations for the 1950–99 period, in which prescribed observed El Niño SST anomalies in the eastern/central equatorial Pacific and an oceanic mixed layer model elsewhere coexist, so that the TWP is allowed to interact with the El Niño atmospheric bridge. To separate the deterministic signal driven by TWP coupling from that associated with inter–El Niño differences and from the “noise” due to intrinsic TWP convection variability (not induced by local SST anomalies), a second large-ensemble (100) simulation of the 1997/98 El Niño event, with coupling limited to the TWP and tropical Indian Ocean, is carried out. Together, the model findings suggest that the extratropical El Niño teleconnection during late fall is very sensitive to convective forcing in the TWP and that coupling-induced warming in the TWP may enhance this El Niño teleconnection by promoting convection in this critical TWP region. A more general implication is that diagnostic studies using December–February (DJF) seasonal averages may obscure some important aspects of climate anomalies associated with forcing in the tropical Pacific.
Phase Speed Spectra and the Latitude of Surface Westerlies: Interannual Variability and Global Warming Trend
Authors: Chen Gang , Lu Jian , Frierson Dargan M. W.
Published: May 2008

The extratropical annular-mode-like atmospheric responses to ENSO and global warming and the internal variability of annular modes are associated with similar, yet distinct, dynamical characteristics. In particular, La Niña, global warming, and the positive phase of annular modes are all associated with a poleward shift of midlatitude jet streams and surface westerlies. To improve understanding of these phenomena, the authors identify and compare patterns of interannual variability and global warming trends in the midlatitude surface westerlies and the space–time spectra of associated eddy momentum fluxes by analyzing simulations of the present climate in an atmosphere-only climate model, in which the ENSO-induced extratropical response is validated with that in reanalysis data, and by projection of future climate changes using a coupled atmosphere–ocean model.

While the response to ENSO is consistent with the refraction of midlatitude eddies due to subtropical wind anomalies, the interannual internal variability of the annular modes marks a change in the eastward propagation speed of midlatitude eddies. In response to global warming, the dominant eddies exhibit a trend toward faster eddy phase speeds in both hemispheres, in a manner similar to the positive phase of interannual internal variability. These diagnoses suggest that the annular mode trend due to greenhouse gas increases may be more related to extratropical processes, especially in the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere, rather than being forced from the deep tropics.
Arctic Climate Change as Manifest in Cyclone Behavior
Authors: Simmonds Ian , Burke Craig , Keay Kevin
Published: May 2008

The Arctic region has exhibited dramatic changes in recent times. Many of these are intimately tied up with synoptic activity, but little research has been undertaken on how the characteristics of Arctic cyclones have changed. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of Arctic (here defined as the domain north of 70°N) cyclones diagnosed with the Melbourne University cyclone tracking scheme applied to the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) and the NCEP–NCAR (NCEP1) and NCEP–Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-II (NCEP2) reanalysis sets (the last two extending to the end of 2006). A wide variety of cyclone characteristics is presented as befits these complex features.

In winter the highest density of cyclones is found between Norway and Svalbard and to the east to the Barents and Kara Seas, and significant numbers are found in the central Arctic. In summer the greatest frequencies are found in the central Arctic. The total number of cyclones identified in the ERA-40 record exceeds those in the two NCEP compilations. The mean size of cyclones shows similar maxima in the central Arctic in both winter and summer. By contrast, the greatest mean system depth in winter (in excess of 8 hPa) is found to the southeast of Greenland, although average depths exceed 6 hPa over a considerable portion of the basin. In summer the deepest cyclones are found in the central portion of the Arctic.

The analysis shows that the total number of cyclones in winter exceeds that in summer, a result in contrast to earlier studies. This difference comes about primarily due to the greater numbers of “open strong” systems in winter in all reanalyses. Cyclones in this category are associated with very active synoptic situations; it is of importance that they be included in cyclone counts but would not be considered in many cyclone identification schemes. Since 1979 neither the ERA-40 nor the NCEP2 sets show significant trends in any of the cyclone variables considered. However, over the entire record starting in 1958 the NCEP1 reanalysis exhibits a significant increase in summer cyclone frequency (due mainly to the increase in closed strong systems). Both NCEP1 and ERA-40 also reveal significant increases in the number of summer closed strong cyclones, as well as in their mean depth and intensity in that season.

Interannual variations in Arctic cyclone numbers are closely related to the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index in the full reanalyses records. An even stronger relationship is found between the AO and the number of deep cyclones. These relationships have still held in the last decade when the AO has returned to more normal values but the summer and fall sea ice extent has continued to decrease.
The Continuum of Northern Hemisphere Teleconnection Patterns and a Description of the NAO Shift with the Use of Self-Organizing Maps
Authors: Johnson Nathaniel C. , Feldstein Steven B. , Tremblay Bruno
Published: May 2008

In this study, the method of self-organizing maps (SOMs) is used with NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data to advance the continuum perspective of Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns and to shed light on the secular eastward shift of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that began in the late 1970s. A 20-pattern SOM analysis of daily, wintertime, Northern Hemisphere sea level pressure reveals a continuum of patterns that correspond closely with well-known teleconnection patterns. This analysis also reveals that interdecadal variability of the hemispheric sea level pressure field may be understood in terms of changes in the frequency distribution within the continuum of sea level pressure patterns described by the SOM. Based on the continuum perspective illustrated with the SOM, the above secular shift of the NAO may be understood as a change in dominance from westward-displaced, negative NAO-like patterns to eastward-displaced, positive NAO-like patterns, though westward- and eastward-displaced NAO-like patterns existed during all time periods and for both phases.
Surface Melt Area and Water Balance Modeling on the Greenland Ice Sheet 1995–2005
Authors: Mernild Sebastian H. , Liston Glen E. , Hiemstra Christopher A. , Steffen Konrad
Published: May 2008

SnowModel, a physically based snow-evolution modeling system that includes four submodels—MicroMet, EnBal, SnowPack, and SnowTran-3D—was used to simulate variations in Greenland [including the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS)] surface snow and ice melt, as well as water balance components, for 1995–2005. Meteorological observations from 25 stations inside and outside the GrIS were used as model input. Winter and summer mass balance observations, spatial snow depth observations, and snowmelt depletion curves derived from time-lapse photography from the Mittivakkat and Zackenberg glacierized catchments in East Greenland were used to validate the performance of SnowModel. Model results compared well with observed values, confirming the robustness of the model. The yearly modeled GrIS interior nonmelt area differs from satellite observations by a maximum of ∼68 000 km2 (or ∼6%) in 2004, and the lowest uncertainties (<8000 km2, or <1%) occur for the years with the smallest (2005) and most extensive (1996) nonmelt areas. Modeled surface melt occurred at elevations reaching 2950 m MSL for 2005, while the equilibrium line altitude (ELA) fluctuates from 1640 to 600 m MSL. The modeled interannual variability in the nonmelt area also agrees with observation records (R2 = 0.96), yielding simulated GrIS nonmelt covers of 71% for 1996 and 50% for 2005. On average, the simulated nonmelt area decreased ∼6% from 1995 to 2005; this trend is similar to observed values. An average surface mass balance (SMB) storage of 138(±81) km3 yr−1, a GrIS loss of 257(±81) km3 yr−1, and a runoff contribution to the ocean of 392(±58) km3 yr−1 occurred for the period 1995–2005. Approximately 58% and 42% of the runoff came from the GrIS western and eastern drainage areas, respectively. The modeled average specific runoff from the GrIS was 6.71 s−1 km−2 yr−1, which, over the simulation period, represents a contribution of ∼1.1 mm yr−1 to global sea level rise.
On the Dynamics of the Slope Current System along the West European Margin. Part II: Analytical Calculations and Numerical Simulations with Seasonal Forcing
Authors: Friocourt Yann , Blanke Bruno , Drijfhout Sybren , Speich Sabrina
Published: May 2008

The seasonality of the baroclinic slope current system along the western European margin in the Bay of Biscay and along the northern Iberian Peninsula is investigated in a joint analysis of an analytical model and numerical simulations with various forcings. A distinction is made between local winds and basin-scale winds, in which the effect of the latter is indirectly apparent through the basin-scale density gradients. The slope currents are mainly forced by the large-scale structure of the density field. The analysis indicates significant differences in the behavior of the uppermost slope current and of the deeper currents. At all depths, seasonal variations in the large-scale density structure of the ocean alter the strength of the slope currents but are not able to cause robust, long-lasting reversals. Reversals of the uppermost slope current appear to be caused by changes in the alongshore component of the local wind stress, provided that the opposing forcing from the density structure is weak enough. However, the deeper slope currents are not very much affected by the wind stress, so that flow reversals can be explained neither by the wind nor by seasonal changes in the density structure. A numerical simulation suggests that the reversals of the deeper slope currents are at least partly forced by seasonal changes in the flow upstream of the slope current system. The authors demonstrate that the larger part of these seasonal changes is associated with annual baroclinic Rossby waves caused by the seasonal cycle of the large-scale wind stress over the whole basin.
Inferring the Pattern of the Oceanic Meridional Transport from the Air–Sea Density Flux
Authors: Radko Timour , Kamenkovich Igor , Dare Pierre-Yves
Published: May 2008

An extension of Walin’s water mass transformation analysis is proposed that would make it possible to assess the strength of the adiabatic along-isopycnal component of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). It is hypothesized that the substantial fraction of the adiabatic MOC component can be attributed to the difference in subduction rates at the northern and southern outcrops of each density layer—the “push–pull” mechanism. The GCM-generated data are examined and it is shown that the push–pull mode accounts for approximately two-thirds of the isopycnal water mass transport in the global budget and dominates the Atlantic transport. Much of the difference between the actual interhemispheric flux and the push–pull mode can be ascribed to the influence of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, characterized by the elevated (at least in the GCM) values of the diapycnal transport. When the diagnostic model is applied to observations, it is discovered that the reconstructed MOC is consistent, in terms of the magnitude and sense of overturning, with earlier observational and modeling studies. The findings support the notion that the dynamics of the meridional overturning are largely controlled by the adiabatic processes—time-mean and eddy-induced advection of buoyancy.
Comparison of Airborne and Spaceborne 95-GHz Radar Reflectivities and Evaluation of Multiple Scattering Effects in Spaceborne Measurements
Authors: Bouniol Dominique , Protat Alain , Plana-Fattori Artemio , Giraud Manuel , Vinson Jean-Paul , Grand Noël
Published: May 2008

This paper provides an evaluation of the level 1 (reflectivity) CloudSat products by making use of coincident measurements collected by an airborne 95-GHz radar during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) experiment that took place in summer 2006 over West Africa. In a first step the airborne radar calibration is assessed. Collocated measurements of the spaceborne and airborne radars within the ice anvil of a mesoscale convective system are then compared. Several aspects are interesting in this comparison: First, both instruments exhibit attenuation within the ice part of the convective system, which suggests either the presence of a significant amount of supercooled liquid water above the melting layer or the presence of wet and very dense ice. Second, from the differences in the observed reflectivity values, a multiple scattering enhancement of at least 2.5 dB in the CloudSat reflectivities at flight altitude is estimated. The main conclusion of this paper is that in such thick anvils of mesoscale convective systems the CloudSat measurements have to be corrected for this effect, if one wants to derive accurate level 2 products such as the ice water content from radar reflectivity. This effect is expected to be much smaller in nonprecipitating clouds though.
A Blackbody Design for SI-Traceable Radiometry for Earth Observation
Authors: Gero P. Jonathan , Dykema John A. , Anderson James G.
Published: May 2008

Spaceborne measurements pinned to international standards are needed to monitor the earth’s climate, quantify human influence thereon, and test forecasts of future climate change. The International System of Units (SI, from the French for Système International d’Unités) provides ideal measurement standards for radiometry as they can be realized anywhere, at any time in the future. The challenge is to credibly prove on-orbit accuracy at a claimed level against these international standards. The most accurate measurements of thermal infrared spectra are achieved with blackbody-based calibration. Thus, SI-traceability is obtained through the kelvin scale, making thermometry the foundation for on-orbit SI-traceable spectral infrared measurements. Thermodynamic phase transitions are well established as reproducible temperature standards and form the basis of the international practical temperature scale (International Temperature Scale of 1990, ITS-90). Appropriate phase transitions are known in the temperature range relevant to thermal infrared earth observation (190–330 K) that can be packaged such that they are chemically stable over the lifetime of a space mission, providing robust and traceable temperature calibrations. A prototype blackbody is presented that is compact, highly emissive, thermally stable and homogeneous, and incorporates a small gallium melting point cell. Precision thermal control of the blackbody allows the phase transition to be identified to within 5 mK. Based on these results, the viability of end-to-end thermometric calibration of both single-temperature and variable-temperature blackbodies on orbit by employing multiple-phase-change cells was demonstrated.
A Study of the Forcing of the 22–25 June 2006 Coastally Trapped Wind Reversal Based on Numerical Simulations and Aircraft Observations
Authors: Rahn David A. , Parish Thomas R.
Published: May 2008

Coastally trapped wind reversals (CTWRs) occur periodically in the lowest several hundred meters of the marine boundary layer west of California and disrupt the northerly flow that typically occurs during summer. South winds and coastal fog or low stratus accompany the CTWR, which propagates northward along the coast. A CTWR was observed off the California coast during late June 2006 that originated in the California Bight and propagated northward to Cape Mendocino during the subsequent 2-day period. This CTWR event was explored by the University of Wyoming King Air research aircraft to document the primary characteristics of the wind reversal. Numerical simulations of the CTWR event using the Weather Research and Forecast modeling system were conducted to compare with observations and to provide a broader picture of the CTWR structure and evolution. An analysis of the forcing mechanisms responsible for the June 2006 CTWR event is presented. It is demonstrated that the mature CTWR for this case is a density current propagating northward along the coast in response to the density gradient found to the north of the CTWR with maximum speed during the nighttime hours. Establishment of the density contrast is largely a result of cloud-top longwave radiative cooling of the stratus that accompanies the CTWR, which serves to cool and deepen the boundary layer during the night. Density contrast between the cloudy CTWR air and the ambient environment is enhanced by the persistent offshore flow to the north of the CTWR with attendant warming and a flattening of the horizontal pressure gradient in the marine layer.