bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Reply: Birnbaum’s (2012) statistical tests of independence have unknown Type-I error rates and do not replicate within participant
Authors: Cha Yun-shil , Choi Michelle , Guo Ying , Regenwetter Michel , Zwilling Chris
Published: January 2023

Birnbaum (2011, 2012) questioned the iid (independent and identically distributed) sampling assumptions used by state-of-the-art statistical tests in Regenwetter, Dana and Davis-Stober’s (2010, 2011) analysis of the “linear order model”. Birnbaum (2012) cited, but did not use, a test of iid by Smith and Batchelder (2008) with analytically known properties. Instead, he created two new test statistics with unknown sampling distributions.

Our rebuttal has five components: 1) We demonstrate that the Regenwetter et al. data pass Smith and Batchelder’s test of iid with flying colors. 2) We provide evidence from Monte Carlo simulations that Birnbaum’s (2012) proposed tests have unknown Type-I error rates, which depend on the actual choice probabilities and on how data are coded as well as on the null hypothesis of iid sampling. 3) Birnbaum analyzed only a third of Regenwetter et al.’s data. We show that his two new tests fail to replicate on the other two-thirds of the data, within participants. 4) Birnbaum selectively picked data of one respondent to suggest that choice probabilities may have changed partway into the experiment. Such nonstationarity could potentially cause a seemingly good fit to be a Type-II error. We show that the linear order model fits equally well if we allow for warm-up effects. 5) Using hypothetical data, Birnbaum (2012) claimed to show that “true-and-error” models for binary pattern probabilities overcome the alleged short-comings of Regenwetter et al.’s approach. We disprove this claim on the same data.
Proportion dominance in valuing lives: The role of deliberative thinking
Authors: Mata André
Published: January 2023

Proportion responding (PR) is the preference for proportionally higher gains, such that the same absolute quantity is valued more as the reference group decreases. This research investigated this kind of proportion PR in decisions about saving lives (e.g., saving 10/10 lives is preferred to saving 10/100 lives). The results of two studies suggest that PR does not stem from an overall tendency to choose higher proportions, but rather from faulty deliberative reasoning. In particular, people who display PR are less likely to engage in deliberative reflection as measured by response time, the Process Dissociation Procedure, the Cognitive Reflection Test, a numeracy test, and a task assessing denominator neglect. This association between faulty deliberation and PR was observed only when choosing the highest proportion was non-normative because it came at the expense of absolute gains (e.g., saving 10/10 lives is preferred to saving 11/100 lives). These results help to make sense of discrepant findings in previous research, pertaining to how PR relates to biased reasoning and decision making.
The effectiveness of imperfect weighting in advice taking
Authors: Bednarik Peter , Schultze Thomas
Published: January 2023

We investigate decision-making in the Judge-Advisor-System where one person, the “judge”, wants to estimate the number of a certain entity and is given advice by another person. The question is how to combine the judge’s initial estimate and that of the advisor in order to get the optimal expected outcome. A previous approach compared two frequently applied strategies, taking the average or choosing the better estimate. In most situations, averaging produced the better estimates. However, this approach neglected a third strategy that judges frequently use, namely a weighted mean of the judges’ initial estimate and the advice. We compare the performance of averaging and choosing to weighting in a theoretical analysis. If the judge can, without error, detect ability differences between judge and advisor, a straight-forward calculation shows that weighting outperforms both of these strategies. More interestingly, after introducing errors in the perception of the ability differences, we show that such imperfect weighting may or may not be the optimal strategy. The relative performance of imperfect weighting compared to averaging or choosing depends on the size of the actual ability differences as well as the magnitude of the error. However, for a sizeable range of ability differences and errors, weighting is preferable to averaging and more so to choosing. Our analysis expands previous research by showing that weighting, even when imperfect, is an appropriate advice taking strategy and under which circumstances judges benefit most from applying it.
Predicting biases in very highly educated samples: Numeracy and metacognition
Authors: Ghazal Saima , Cokely Edward T. , Garcia-Retamero Rocio
Published: January 2023

We investigated the relations between numeracy and superior judgment and decision making in two large community outreach studies in Holland (n=5408). In these very highly educated samples (e.g., 30–50% held graduate degrees), the Berlin Numeracy Test was a robust predictor of financial, medical, and metacognitive task performance (i.e., lotteries, intertemporal choice, denominator neglect, and confidence judgments), independent of education, gender, age, and another numeracy assessment. Metacognitive processes partially mediated the link between numeracy and superior performance. More numerate participants performed better because they deliberated more during decision making and more accurately evaluated their judgments (e.g., less overconfidence). Results suggest that well-designed numeracy tests tend to be robust predictors of superior judgment and decision making because they simultaneously assess (1) mathematical competency and (2) metacognitive and self-regulated learning skills.
On the role of recognition in consumer choice: A model comparison
Authors: Hilbig Benjamin E.
Published: January 2023

One prominent model in the realm of memory-based judgments and decisions is the recognition heuristic. Under certain preconditions, it presumes that choices are based on recognition in a one-cue non-compensatory manner and that other information is ignored. This claim has been studied widely—and received, at best, mixed support—in probabilistic inferences. By contrast, only a small number of recent investigations have taken the RH to the realm of preferential decisions (i.e. consumer choice). So far, the conclusion has been that the RH cannot satisfactorily account for aggregate data patterns, but no fully specified alternative model has been demonstrated to provide a better account. Herein, the data from a recent consumer-choice study (Thoma & Williams, 2013) are re-analyzed with the outcome-based maximum-likelihood strategy classification method, thus testing several competing models on individual data. Results revealed that an alternative compensatory model (an equal weights strategy) accounted best for a larger number of datasets than the RH. Thereby, the findings further specify prior results and answer the call for comparative model testing on individual data that has been voiced repeatedly.
Survey of time preference, delay discounting models
Authors: Doyle John R.
Published: January 2023

The paper surveys over twenty models ofdelay discounting(also known astemporal discounting, time preference, time discounting), that psychologists and economists have put forward to explain the way people actually trade off time and money. Using little more than the basic algebra of powers and logarithms, I show how the models are derived, what assumptions they are based upon, and how different models relate to each other. Rather than concentrate only ondiscount functionsthemselves, I show how discount functions may be manipulated to isolaterate parametersfor each model. This approach, consistently applied, helps focus attention on the three main components in any discounting model: subjectively perceived money; subjectively perceived time; and how these elements are combined. We group models by the number of parameters that have to be estimated, which means our exposition follows a trajectory of increasing complexity to the models. However, as the story unfolds it becomes clear that most models fall into a smaller number of families. We also show how new models may be constructed by combining elements of different models.

The surveyed models are: Exponential; Hyperbolic; Arithmetic; Hyperboloid (Green & Myerson, Rachlin); Loewenstein and Prelec Generalized Hyperboloid; quasi-Hyperbolic (also known asβ-δdiscounting); Benhabib et al’s fixed cost; Benhabib et al’s Exponential / Hyperbolic / quasi-Hyperbolic; Read’s discounting fractions; Roelofsma’s exponential time; Scholten and Read’s discounting-by-intervals (DBI); Ebert and Prelec’s constant sensitivity (CS); Bleichrodt et al.’s constant absolute decreasing impatience (CADI); Bleichrodt et al.’s constant relative decreasing impatience (CRDI); Green, Myerson, and Macaux’s hyperboloid over intervals models; Killeen’s additive utility; size-sensitive additive utility; Yi, Landes, and Bickel’s memory trace models; McClure et al.’s two exponentials; and Scholten and Read’s trade-off model.

For a convenient overview, a single “cheat sheet” table captures the notation and essential mathematics behind all but one of the models.
Regret salience and accountability in the decoy effect
Authors: Connolly Terry , Reb Jochen , Kausel Edgar E.
Published: January 2023

Two experiments examined the impact on the decoy effect of making salient the possibility of post-decision regret, a manipulation that has been shown in several earlier studies to stimulate critical examination and improvement of decision process. Experiment 1 (N = 62) showed that making regret salient eliminated the decoy effect in a personal preference task. Experiment 2 (N = 242) replicated this finding for a different personal preference task and for a prediction task. It also replicated previous findings that external accountability demands do not reduce, and may exacerbate, the decoy effect. We interpret both effects in terms of decision justification, with different justification standards operating for different audiences. The decoy effect, in this account, turns on accepting a weak justification, which may be seen as adequate for an external audience or one’s own inattentive self but inadequate under the more critical review triggered by making regret possibilities salient. Seeking justification to others (responding to accountability demands) thus maintains or exacerbates the decoy effect; seeking justification to oneself (responding to regret salience) reduces or eliminates it. The proposed mechanism provides a theoretical account both of the decoy effect itself and of how regret priming provides an effective debiasing procedure for it.
Risky choice in younger versus older adults: Affective context matters
Authors: Huang Yumi , Wood Stacey , Berger Dale , Hanoch Yaniv
Published: January 2023

Earlier frameworks have indicated that older adults tend to experience decline in their deliberative decisional capacity, while their affective abilities tend to remain intact (Peters, Hess, Västfjäll, & Auman, 2007). The present study applied this framework to the study of risky decision-making across the lifespan. Two versions of the Columbia Card Task (CCT) were used to trigger either affective decision-making (i.e., the “warm” CCT) or deliberative decision-making (i.e., the “cold” CCT) in a sample of 158 individuals across the lifespan. Overall there were no age differences in risk seeking. However, there was a significant interaction between age and condition, such that older adults were relatively more risk seeking in the cold condition only. In terms of everyday decision-making, context matters and risk propensity may shift within older adults depending upon the context.
How the number of options and perceived variety influence choice satisfaction: An experiment with prescription drug plans
Authors: Szrek Helena
Published: January 2023

This study measures the perceived costs, perceived benefits, choice outcome satisfaction, and choice process satisfaction from consumers making hypothetical choices amongst prescription drug plans. I juxtapose the number of options the consumer is choosing between and his/her perceived variety of the choice set to understand which contributes more to explaining these outcomes. I find that once perceived variety is included in the model, the number of options (i) has no effect on perceived benefits and choice outcome satisfaction, (ii) increases perceived costs, and (iii) decreases choice process satisfaction. Furthermore, the concave relationship that has been shown to occur when the number of options increases is a function of the subjective perception of variety. Overall, these results contribute to our understanding of how assortment structure and the number of options affect choice outcome and process satisfaction. Additionally, this study provides some evidence that can inform U.S. national heath insurance policy and the current debate on choice in health care in the United States and other countries.
DOSPERT+M: A survey of medical risk attitudes in the United States
Authors: Rosman Adam , Garcia Maggie , Lee Sam , Butler Shoshana , Schwartz Alan
Published: January 2023

Background:

The Domain-Specific Risk Taking scale (DOSPERT) has been recommended as a tool for measuring risk attitudes in medical studies, but does not contain items specific to health care. Butler, et al. (2012) developed a medical risk domain subscale for DOSPERT.

Objective:

To characterize medical risk attitudes in a nationally-representative U.S. sample using the full DOSPERT scale with the medical risk domain add-on (DOSPERT+M), and examine associations with other risk domains.

Methods:

Members of a nationally-representative online panel (KnowledgePanel®) were randomized to complete pairs of DOSPERT+M tasks (risk attitude, risk perception, expected benefits). We explored relationships among domains through correlational and factor analysis; we tested the hypothesis that the medical risk domain and DOSPERT’s health/safety domains were not highly correlated.

Participants:

Three hundred forty-four panelists.

Results:

The medical risk domain subscale had low inter-item reliability in the risk-taking task and moderate inter-item reliability in the other tasks. Medical risk domain scores were poorly correlated with the DOSPERT health/safety domain. Exploratory factor analysis largely recovered the expected DOSPERT domain structure.

Conclusion:

Attitudes toward risky medical activities may constitute a distinct domain from those measured by the standard DOSPERT items. Additional work is required to develop a medical risk subscale with higher inter-item reliability.
How the public, and scientists, perceive advancement of knowledge from conflicting study results
Authors: Koehler Derek J. , Pennycook Gordon
Published: January 2023

Science often advances through disagreement among scientists and the studies they produce. For members of the public, however, conflicting results from scientific studies may trigger a sense of uncertainty that in turn leads to a feeling that nothing new has been learned from those studies. In several scenario studies, participants read about pairs of highly similar scientific studies with results that either agreed or disagreed, and were asked, “When we take the results of these two studies together, do we now know more, less, or the same as we did before about (the study topic)?” We find that over half of participants do not feel that “we know more” as the result of the two new studies when the second study fails to replicate the first. When the two study results strongly conflict (e.g., one finds a positive and the other a negative association between two variables), a non-trivial proportion of participants actually say that “we know less” than we did before. Such a sentiment arguably violates normative principles of statistical and scientific inference positing that new study findings can never reduce our level of knowledge (and that only completely uninformative studies can leave our level of knowledge unchanged). Drawing attention to possible moderating variables, or to sample size considerations, did not influence people’s perceptions of knowledge advancement. Scientist members of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, when presented with the same scenarios, were less inclined to say that nothing new is learned from conflicting study results.
Variations on anchoring: Sequential anchoring revisited
Authors: Bahník Štěpán , Houdek Petr , Vrbová Lucie , Hájek Jiří
Published: January 2023

The anchoring effect, the assimilation of judgment toward a previously considered value, has been shown using various experimental paradigms. We used several variations of the sequential anchoring paradigm, in which a numeric estimate influences a subsequent numeric estimate on the same scale, to investigate how anchoring is influenced by multiple anchors, a comparison question, and by a newly introduced debiasing procedure. We replicated the anchoring effect using the sequential anchoring paradigm and showed that, when two anchors of opposite directions are presented, the second seems to influence a subsequent judgment somewhat more. A comparison of a target with another object before the numerical estimate was not sufficient to elicit anchoring, but it might have increased the sequential anchoring effect. The debiasing procedure, based on providing reference points on the numerical scale, prevented the sequential anchoring effect. The results are in accord with the scale distortion theory of anchoring, but other theories may also account for the observed findings with additional adjustments.
Wronging past rights: The sunk cost bias distorts moral judgment
Authors: Meyers Ethan A. , Białek Michał , Fugelsang Jonathan A. , Koehler Derek J. , Friedman Ori
Published: January 2023

When people have invested resources into an endeavor, they typically persist in it, even when it becomes obvious that it will fail. Here we show this bias extends to people’s moral decision-making. Across two preregistered experiments (N = 1592) we show that people are more willing to proceed with a futile, immoral action when costs have been sunk (Experiment 1A and 1B). Moreover, we show that sunk costs distort people’s perception of morality by increasing how acceptable they find actions that have received past investment (Experiment 2). We find these results in contexts where continuing would lead to no obvious benefit and only further harm. We also find initial evidence that the bias has a larger impact on judgment in immoral compared to non-moral contexts. Our findings illustrate a novel way that the past can affect moral judgment. Implications for rational moral judgment and models of moral cognition are discussed.
Spanish validation of General Decision-Making Style scale: Sex invariance, sex differences and relationships with personality and coping styles
Authors: Alacreu-Crespo Adrián , Fuentes María C. , Abad-Tortosa Diana , Cano-Lopez Irene , González Esperanza , Serrano Miguel Ángel
Published: January 2023

The General Decision-Making Styles (GDMS) scale measures five decision-making styles: rational, intuitive, dependent, avoidant and spontaneous. GDMS has been related to coping and some personality factors and sex-differences has been described. In spite of its usefulness, there is not a validated Spanish translation. The aim of this study is to translate to Spanish and provide psychometric evidence considering sex differences and the relationships between GDMS, personality and coping variables. Two samples were used for this study; the first sample composed by 300 participants who completed the GDMS and the Rational-Experiential Inventory (REI), and the second sample of 361 participants who completed the GDMS, the Ten Item Personality Trait Inventory and the brief COPE scales. Participants from second sample filled in GDMS a second time (137 participants) after eight weeks from the first data collection. Confirmatory factor analyses showed a five-factor composition of GDMS with equivalence across sex using invariance analyses. Moreover, GDMS showed acceptable internal consistency and temporal stability. Finally, rational and intuitive styles were related to healthier coping patterns and emotional stability, while dependent, avoidant and spontaneous styles were associated with unhealthy coping patterns and emotional instability.
Facing expectations: Those that we prefer to fulfil and those that we disregard
Authors: Heintz Christophe , Jérémy Celse , Francesca Giardini , Sylvain Max
Published: January 2023

We argue that people choosing prosocial distribution of goods (e.g., in dictator games) make this choice because they do not want to disappoint their partner rather than because of a direct preference for the chosen prosocial distribution. The chosen distribution is a means to fulfil one’s partner’s expectations. We review the economic experiments that corroborate this hypothesis and the experiments that deny that beliefs about others’ expectations motivate prosocial choice. We then formulate hypotheses about what types of expectation motivate someone to do what is expected: these are justifiable hopeful expectations that are clearly about his own choices. We experimentally investigate how people modulate their prosociality when they face low or unreasonably high expectations. In a version of a dictator game, we provide dictators with the opportunity to modulate their transfer as a function of their partner’s expectations. We observe that a significant portion of the population is willing to fulfil their partner’s expectation provided that this expectation expresses a reasonable hope. We conclude that people are averse to disappointing and we discuss what models of social preferences can account for the role of expectations in determining prosocial choice, with a special attention to models of guilt aversion and social esteem.
Error Parsing: An alternative method of implementing social judgment theory
Authors: Hall Crystal C. , Oppenheimer Daniel M.
Published: January 2023

We present a novel method of judgment analysis called Error Parsing, based upon an alternative method of implementing Social Judgment Theory (SJT). SJT and Error Parsing both posit the same three components of error in human judgment: error due to noise, error due to cue weighting, and error due to inconsistency. In that sense, the broad theory and framework are the same. However, SJT and Error Parsing were developed to answer different questions, and thus use different methodological approaches in the analysis of error. While SJT makes use of correlational methods, Error Parsing uses absolute differences. We discuss the similarities and differences between the methodologies and provide empirical evidence for the utility of the Error Parsing technique. Keywords: Social Judgment Theory, judgment, error.
Numeracy predicts preference consistency: Deliberative search heuristics increase choice consistency for choices from description and experience
Authors: Ashby Nathaniel J. S.
Published: January 2023

Many people exhibit inconsistent preferences when they make choices based on descriptive summaries as compared to choices based on prior experiences. Theoretically, factors that promote more deliberative and skilled decision making (e.g., statistical numeracy) should also tend to promote more consistent choices and preferences regardless of information presentation formats. To test this hypothesis, in two studies I investigated individual differences in information search strategies (e.g., the amount and direction of information search) while estimating the degree to which numeracy predicted risky choice consistency across (a) decisions-from-description and (b) the decisions-from-samples. Results from Study 1 revealed that numeracy was generally associated with more extensive sampling and greater choice consistency across paradigms. Instead of reflecting differences in logical maximizing strategies (e.g., calculating expected values), analyses indicated that highly-numerate participants largely generated consistent choices by relying on heuristic-type processes (e.g., alternated between options less and exploring options with higher outcome variability more). In Study 2, the relationship between numeracy and choice consistency was eliminated when all participants were forced to make choices after experiencing the same fixed amount of sampling (i.e., provided the same amount of information). Taken together, the results of both studies converge with and extend previous findings (e.g., Skilled Decision Theory), indicating that numerate participants may generally exhibit more consistent preferences and choices via deliberatative heuristic search during decision making.
Perceptions of water systems
Authors: Attari Shahzeen Z. , Poinsatte-Jones Kelsey , Hinton Kelsey
Published: January 2023

Public understanding of the water system is vital in confronting contemporary water challenges, as public support is necessary for implementing measures to address shortages and repair infrastructure. In this study, university student participants (N = 457) were asked todrawdiagrams illustrating how water reaches the tap in an average home in the U.S. and is then returned to the natural environment. We also conducted an expert elicitation (N = 15) to create a simplified, accurate diagram by which to code each student drawing. Results showed major gaps in understanding, where 29% of the student participants did not draw a water treatment plant, 64% did not draw a wastewater treatment plant, and 1 in 5 participants depicted untreated wastewater returning to the natural environment. For the majority of non-environmental students, the water system stops at the home. These gaps reveal a critical area for public environmental education efforts.
I can take the risk, but you should be safe: Self-other differences in situations involving physical safety
Authors: Stone Eric R. , Choi YoonSun , Bruine de Bruin Wändi , Mandel David R.
Published: January 2023

Prior research on self-other differences involving risk have found that individuals make riskier decisions for others than for the self in situations where risk taking is valued. We expand this research by examining whether the direction of self-other differences reverses when risk aversion is valued, as predicted by social values theory (Stone & Allgaier, 2008). Two studies tested for self-other differences in physical safety scenarios, a domain where risk aversion is valued. In Study 1, participants read physical safety and romantic relationship scenarios and selected what they would decide for themselves, what they would decide for a friend, or what they would predict their friend would decide. In Study 2, participants read public health scenarios and either decided or predicted for themselves and for a friend. In keeping with social values theory, participants made more risk-averse decisions for others than for themselves in situations where risk aversion is valued (physical safety scenarios) but more risk-taking decisions for others than for themselves in situations where risk taking is valued (relationship scenarios). Further, we show that these self-other differences in decision making do not arise from incorrectly predicting others’ behaviors, as participants predicted that others’ decisions regarding physical safety scenarios would be either similar (Experiment 1) or more risktaking(Experiment 2) than their own decisions.
Inferring uncertainty from interval estimates: Effects of alpha level and numeracy
Authors: Rinne Luke F. , Mazzocco Michèle M. M.
Published: January 2023

Interval estimates are commonly used to descriptively communicate the degree of uncertainty in numerical values. Conventionally, low alpha levels (e.g., .05) ensure a high probability of capturing the target value between interval endpoints. Here, we test whether alpha levels and individual differences in numeracy influence distributional inferences. In the reported experiment, participants received prediction intervals for fictitious towns’ annual rainfall totals (assuming approximately normal distributions). Then, participants estimated probabilities that future totals would be captured within varying margins about the mean, indicating the approximate shapes of their inferred probability distributions. Results showed that low alpha levels (vs. moderate levels; e.g., .25) more frequently led to inferences of over-dispersed approximately normal distributions or approximately uniform distributions, reducing estimate accuracy. Highly numerate participants made more accurate estimates overall, but were more prone to inferring approximately uniform distributions. These findings have important implications for presenting interval estimates to various audiences.
Top scores are possible, bottom scores are certain (and middle scores are not worth mentioning): A pragmatic view of verbal probabilities
Authors: Juanchich Marie , Teigen Karl Halvor , Gourdon Amélie
Published: January 2023

In most previous studies of verbal probabilities, participants are asked to translate expressions such aspossibleandnot certaininto numeric probability values. This probabilistic translation approach can be contrasted with a novel which-outcome (WO) approach that focuses on the outcomes that people naturally associate with probability terms. The WO approach has revealed that, when given bell-shaped distributions of quantitative outcomes, people tend to associatecertaintywith minimum (unlikely) outcome magnitudes andpossibilitywith (unlikely) maximal ones. The purpose of the present paper is to test the factors that foster these effects and the conditions in which they apply. Experiment 1 showed that the association of probability term and outcome was related to the association of scalar modifiers (i.e., it is certain that the battery will lastat least…, it is possible that the battery will lastup to…). Further, we tested whether this pattern was dependent on the frequency (e.g., increasing vs. decreasing distribution) or the nature of the outcomes presented (i.e., categorical vs. continuous). Results showed that despite being slightly affected by the shape of the distribution, participants continue to prefer to associatepossiblewith maximum outcomes andcertainwith minimum outcomes. The final experiment provided a boundary condition to the effect, showing that it applies to verbal but not numerical probabilities.
Leftmost-digit-bias in an enumerated public sector? An experiment on citizens’ judgment of performance information
Authors: Olsen Asmus Leth
Published: January 2023

Numerical performance information is increasingly important to political decision-making in the public sector. Some have suggested that biases in citizens’ processing of numerical information can be exploited by politicians to skew citizens’ perception of performance. I report on an experiment on how citizens evaluate numerical performance information from a public school context. The experiment is conducted with a large and diverse sample of the Danish population (N=1156). The analysis shows a strong leftmost-digit-bias in citizens’ evaluation of school grading information. Thus, very small changes in reported average grades, which happen to shift the leftmost grade digit, can lead to very large shifts in citizens’ evaluation of performance. The rightmost digit on the grade is almost fully ignored.
Political double standards in reliance on moral foundations
Authors: Eriksson Kimmo , Simpson Brent , Strimling Pontus
Published: January 2023

Prior research using the Moral Foundations Questionnaire (MFQ) has established that political ideology is associated with self-reported reliance on specific moral foundations in moral judgments of acts. MFQ items do not specify the agents involved in the acts, however. By specifying agents in MFQ items we revealed blatant political double standards. Conservatives thought that the same moral foundation was more relevant if victims were agents that they like (i.e., corporations and other conservatives) but less relevant when the same agents were perpetrators. Liberals showed the same pattern for agents that they like (i.e., news media and other liberals). A UK sample showed much weaker political double standards with respect to corporations and news media, consistent with feelings about corporations and news media being much less politicized in the UK than in the US. We discuss the implications for moral foundations theory.
Information search in everyday decisions: The generalizability of the attraction search effect
Authors: Scharf Sophie E. , Wiegelmann Monika , Bröder Arndt
Published: January 2023

The recently proposedintegrated coherence-based decisions and search model(iCodes) makes predictions for search behavior in multi-attribute decision tasks beyond those of classic decision-making heuristics. More precisely, it predicts theAttraction Search Effectthat describes a tendency to search for information for the option that is already attractive given the available evidence. To date, the Attraction Search Effect has been successfully tested using a hypothetical stock-market game that was highly stylized and specifically designed to be highly diagnostic. In three experiments, we tested whether the Attraction Search Effect generalizes to different semantic contexts, different cue-value patterns, and a different presentation format than the classic matrix format. Across all experiments, we find evidence for information-search behavior that matches iCodes’s information-search prediction. Therefore, our results corroborate not only the generalizability of the Attraction Search Effect in various contexts but also the inherent process assumptions of iCodes.
Is broad bracketing always better? How broad decision framing leads to more optimal preferences over repeated gambles
Authors: Webb Elizabeth C. , Shu Suzanne B.
Published: January 2023

The effect of choice bracketing — the consideration of repeated decisions as a set versus in isolation — has important implications for products that are inherently time-sensitive and entail varying levels of risk, including retirement accounts, insurance purchases, and lottery preferences. We show that broader choice brackets lead to more optimal risk preferences across all risk types, including negative expected value and pure-loss gambles, suggesting that broad decision framing can help individuals make better choices over risks more generally. We also examine the mechanism behind these bracketing effects. We find that bracketing effects work by attenuating (magnifying) the weight placed on potential losses for positive EV (non-positive EV) gambles and by providing aggregated outcomes that might not otherwise be calculated. Thus, decision frames that provide probability distributions or aggregated outcomes can help individuals maximize expected value across different types of risky prospects.
Cognitive conflict in social dilemmas: An analysis of response dynamics
Authors: Kieslich Pascal J. , Hilbig Benjamin E.
Published: January 2023

Recently, it has been suggested that people are spontaneously inclined to cooperate in social dilemmas, whereas defection requires effortful deliberation. From this assumption, we derive that defection should entail more cognitive conflict than cooperation. To test this hypothesis, the current study presents a first application of the response dynamics paradigm (i.e., mouse-tracking) to social dilemmas. In a fully incentivized lab experiment, mouse movements were tracked while participants played simple two-person social dilemma games with two options (cooperation and defection). Building on previous research, curvature of mouse movements was taken as an indicator of cognitive conflict. In line with the hypothesis of less cognitive conflict in cooperation, response trajectories were more curved (towards the non-chosen option) when individuals defected than when they cooperated. In other words, the cooperative option exerted more “pull” on mouse movements in case of defection than the non-cooperative option (defection) did in case of cooperation. This effect was robust across different types of social dilemmas and occurred even in the prisoner’s dilemma, where defection was predominant on the choice level. Additionally, the effect was stronger for dispositional cooperators as measured by the Honesty-Humility factor of the HEXACO personality model. As such, variation in the effect across individuals could be accounted for through cooperativeness.
Ostracism and fines in a public goods game with accidental contributions: The importance of punishment type
Authors: Liddell Torrin M. , Kruschke John K.
Published: January 2023

Punishment is an important method for discouraging uncooperative behavior. We use a novel design for a public goods game in which players have explicit intended contributions with accidentally changed actual contributions, and in which players can apply costly fines or ostracism. Moreover, all players except the subject are automated, whereby we control the intended contributions, actual contributions, costly fines, and ostracisms experienced by the subject. We assess subject’s utilization of other players’ intended and actual contributions when making decisions to fine or ostracize. Hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression provides robust estimates. We find that subjects emphasize actual contribution more than intended contribution when deciding to fine, but emphasize intended contribution more than actual contribution when deciding to ostracize. We also find that the efficacy of past punishment, in terms of changing the contributions of the punished player, influences the type of punishment selected. Finally, we find that the punishment norms of the automated players affect the punishments performed by the subject. These novel paradigms and analyses indicate that punishment is flexible and adaptive, contrary to some evolutionary theories that predict inflexible punishments that emphasize outcomes.
The effect of dynamic proximity cues on counterfactual plausibility
Authors: Covey Judith , Zhang Qiyuan
Published: January 2023

Previous research has found that people consult closeness or proximity cues when they evaluate the plausibility or likelihood of a counterfactual alternative to reality. In this paper we asked whether the plausibility of counterfactuals extends to dynamic proximity cues that signal a sense of propensity or acceleration in the lead-up to an outcome. Subjects gambled on obtaining either three heads or three tails from three coin-flips. When they lost the gamble they thought it was more likely that they could have won if they had lost on the third coin-flip that was revealed rather than the first or second coin-flip. We discuss how the sense of propensity was raised prior to the revelation of the final decisive losing coin-flip which created a perception of psychological momentum towards winning. Moreover, the consequence of this propensity effect was to positively bias perceptions of the likelihood of the counterfactual winning outcome.
Spontaneous associations and label framing have similar effects in the public goods game
Authors: Eriksson Kimmo , Strimling Pontus
Published: January 2023

It is known that presentation of a meaningful label (e.g., "The Teamwork Game") can influence decisions in economic games. A common view is that such labels cue associations to preexisting mental models of situations, a process here called frame selection. In the absence of such cues, participants may still spontaneously associate a game with a preexisting frame. We used the public goods game to compare the effect of such spontaneous frame selection with the effect of label framing. Participants in a condition where the public goods game was labeled "The Teamwork Game" tended to contribute at the same level as participants who spontaneously associated the unlabeled game with teamwork, whereas those who did not associate the the unlabeled game with teamwork tended to make lower contributions. We conclude that neutrally described games may be subject to spontaneous frame selection effects comparable in size to the effects of label framing.
Public policy for thee, but not for me: Varying the grammatical person of public policy justifications influences their support
Authors: Cornwell James F. M. , Krantz David H.
Published: January 2023

Past research has shown that people consistently believe that others are more easily manipulated by external influences than they themselves are—a phenomenon called the “third-person effect” (Davison, 1983). The present research investigates whether support for public policies aimed at changing behavior using incentives and other decision “nudges” is affected by this bias. Across two studies, we phrased justification for public policy initiatives using either the second- or third-person plural. In Study 1, we found that support for policies is higher when their justification points to people in general rather than the general “you”, and in Study 2 we found that this former phrasing also improves support compared to a no-justification control condition. Policy support is mediated by beliefs about the likelihood of success of the policies (as opposed to beliefs about the policies’ unintended consequences), and, in the second-person condition, is inversely related to a sense of personal agency. These effects suggest that the third-person effect holds true for nudge-type and incentive-based public policies, with implications for their popular support.
The letter versus the spirit of the law: A lay perspective on culpability
Authors: Garcia Stephen M. , Chen Patricia , Gordon Matthew T.
Published: January 2023

The letter of the law is its literal meaning. Here, the spirit of the law is its perceived intention. We tested the hypothesis that violating the spirit of the law accounts for culpability above and beyond breaking the mere letter. We find that one can incur culpability even when the letter of the law is not technically broken. We examine this effect across various legal contexts and discuss the implications for future research directions.
Translation and validation of the Moral Foundations Vignettes (MFVs) for the Portuguese language in a Brazilian sample
Authors: Marques Lucas Murrins , Clifford Scott , Iyengar Vijeth , Bonato Graziela Vieira , Cabral Patrícia Moraes , dos Santos Rafaela Barreto , Cabeza Roberto , Sinnott-Armstrong Walter , Boggio Paulo Sérgio
Published: January 2023

The Moral Foundations Vignettes (MFVs) – a recently developed set of brief scenarios depicting violations of various moral foundations – enables investigators to directly examine differences in moral judgments about different topics. In the present study, we adapt the MFV instrument for use in the Portuguese language. To this end, the following steps were performed: 1) Translation of the MFV instrument from English to Portuguese language in Brazil; 2) Synthesis of translated versions; 3) Evaluation of the synthesis by expert judges; 4) Evaluation of the MFV instrument by university students from Sao Paulo City; 5) Back translation; and lastly, 6) Validation study, which used a sample of 494 (385f) university students from Sao Paulo city and a set of 68 vignettes, subdivided into seven factors. Exploratory analyses show that the relationships between the moral foundations and political ideology are similar to those found in previous studies, but the severity of moral judgment on individualizing foundations tended to be significantly higher in the Sao Paulo sample, compared to a sample from the USA. Overall, the present study provides a Portuguese version of the MFV that performs similarly to the original English version, enabling a broader examination of how the moral foundations operate.
Synergistic effects of voting and enforcement on internalized motivation to cooperate in a resource dilemma
Authors: DeCaro Daniel A. , Janssen Marco A. , Lee Allen
Published: January 2023

We used psychological methods to investigate how two prominent interventions, participatory decision making and enforcement, influence voluntary cooperation in a common-pool resource dilemma. Groups (N=40) harvested resources from a shared resource pool. Individuals in the Voted-Enforce condition voted on conservation rules and could use economic sanctions to enforce them. In other conditions, individuals could not vote (Imposed-Enforce condition), lacked enforcement (Voted condition), or both (Imposed condition). Cooperation was strongest in the Voted-Enforce condition (Phase 2). Moreover, these groups continued to cooperate voluntarily after enforcement was removed later in the experiment. Cooperation was weakest in the Imposed-Enforce condition and degraded after enforcement ceased. Thus, enforcement improved voluntary cooperation only when individuals voted. Perceptions of procedural justice, self-determination, and security were highest in the Voted-Enforced condition. These factors (legitimacy, security) increased voluntary cooperation by promoting rule acceptance and internalized motivation. Voted-Enforce participants also felt closer to one another (i.e., self-other merging), further contributing to their cooperation. Neither voting nor enforcement produced these sustained psychological conditions alone. Voting lacked security without enforcement (Voted condition), so the individuals who disliked the rule (i.e., the losing voters) pillaged the resource. Enforcement lacked legitimacy without voting (Imposed-Enforce condition), so it crowded out internal reasons for cooperation. Governance interventions should carefully promote security without stifling fundamental needs (e.g., procedural justice) or undermining internal motives for cooperation.
Introducing money at any time can reduce discounting in intertemporal choices with rewards: An extension of the upfront money effect
Authors: Sun Hong-Yue , Jiang Cheng-Ming
Published: January 2023

To study intertemporal choices, researchers typically instruct subjects to choose between smaller and sooner (SS) and larger and later (LL) rewards (e.g., gaining CNY 210 in a week vs. gaining CNY 250 in five weeks). People generally tend to discount steeply and prefer SS to LL rewards in such situations. Jiang, Hu and Zhu (2014) recently showed that adding upfront losses or gains to both SS and LL rewards can reduce people’s discounting, and they provided several possible accounts for this effect, including the salience account and the time scale hypothesis. In the current paper, based on the upfront money effect found in Jiang et al. (2014), we further showed that the effect of discounting decreasing could be extended to adding dated-money between SS and LL rewards and after LL rewards. The results helped us exclude both the time scale hypothesis and another possible explanation: preference for improvement. We hypothesized that all the current findings (recorded in this paper and in Jiang et al.) could be accommodated well using the salience account.
Accounting for reciprocity in negotiation and social exchange
Authors: Mislin Alexandra A. , Boumgarden Peter A. , Jang Daisung , Bottom William P.
Published: January 2023

People generally adhere to the norm of reciprocity during both tacit and negotiated exchange. Emotional responses generated from profitable and unprofitable exchange facilitate the formation of motives to settle scores with others. In two studies we examine how exchange incidents trigger positive and negative emotional responses, bargaining behavior, and process. In Study 1, we developed measures of emotional response toward the counterpart that can index the state of relational accounts between parties. In a complex, multi-issue negotiation, The measures show that prior profitable or unprofitable exchange experiences shifted affect and individual social motives, as well as initial bargaining positions. In Study 2, shifts in relational accounts altered the bargaining process and subsequent implementation of agreements. The relational accounting concept represents an important link for understanding how negotiation functions as a sub-process in the wider stream of social exchange.