bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Assessing the impact of different sources of topographic data on 1-D hydraulic modelling of floods
Authors: Md Ali A. , Solomatine D. P. , Di Baldassarre G.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Topographic data, such as digital elevation models (DEMs), are essential input in flood inundation modelling. DEMs can be derived from several sources either through remote sensing techniques (spaceborne or airborne imagery) or from traditional methods (ground survey). The Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER), the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), the light detection and ranging (lidar), and topographic contour maps are some of the most commonly used sources of data for DEMs. These DEMs are characterized by different precision and accuracy. On the one hand, the spatial resolution of low-cost DEMs from satellite imagery, such as ASTER and SRTM, is rather coarse (around 30 to 90 m). On the other hand, the lidar technique is able to produce high-resolution DEMs (at around 1 m), but at a much higher cost. Lastly, contour mapping based on ground survey is time consuming, particularly for higher scales, and may not be possible for some remote areas. The use of these different sources of DEM obviously affects the results of flood inundation models. This paper shows and compares a number of 1-D hydraulic models developed using HEC-RAS as model code and the aforementioned sources of DEM as geometric input. To test model selection, the outcomes of the 1-D models were also compared, in terms of flood water levels, to the results of 2-D models (LISFLOOD-FP). The study was carried out on a reach of the Johor River, in Malaysia. The effect of the different sources of DEMs (and different resolutions) was investigated by considering the performance of the hydraulic models in simulating flood water levels as well as inundation maps. The outcomes of our study show that the use of different DEMs has serious implications to the results of hydraulic models. The outcomes also indicate that the loss of model accuracy due to re-sampling the highest resolution DEM (i.e. lidar 1 m) to lower resolution is much less than the loss of model accuracy due to the use of low-cost DEM that have not only a lower resolution, but also a lower quality. Lastly, to better explore the sensitivity of the 1-D hydraulic models to different DEMs, we performed an uncertainty analysis based on the GLUE methodology.
A topological restricted maximum likelihood (TopREML) approach to regionalize trended runoff signatures in stream networks
Authors: Müller M. F. , Thompson S. E.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. We introduce TopREML as a method to predict runoff signatures in ungauged basins. The approach is based on the use of linear mixed models with spatially correlated random effects. The nested nature of streamflow networks is taken into account by using water balance considerations to constrain the covariance structure of runoff and to account for the stronger spatial correlation between flow-connected basins. The restricted maximum likelihood (REML) framework generates the best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) of both the predicted variable and the associated prediction uncertainty, even when incorporating observable covariates into the model. The method was successfully tested in cross validation analyses on mean streamflow and runoff frequency in Nepal (sparsely gauged) and Austria (densely gauged), where it matched the performance of comparable methods in the prediction of the considered runoff signature, while significantly outperforming them in the prediction of the associated modeling uncertainty. TopREML's ability to combine deterministic and stochastic information to generate BLUPs of the prediction variable and its uncertainty makes it a particularly versatile method that can readily be applied in both densely gauged basins, where it takes advantage of spatial covariance information, and data-scarce regions, where it can rely on covariates, which are increasingly observable thanks to remote sensing technology.
Experimental tests on operation performance of a LARM leg mechanism with 3-DOF parallel architecture
Authors: Wang M. F. , Ceccarelli M. , Carbone G.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. In this paper, a prototype of a LARM leg mechanism is proposed by using a tripod manipulator and its operation performance is investigated through lab experimental tests. In particular, an experimental layout is presented for investigating operational performance. A prescribed motion with an isosceles trapezoid trajectory is used for characterizing the system behavior. Experiment results are analyzed for the purpose of operation evaluation and architecture design characterization of the tripod manipulator and its proposed prototype.
Quantitative comparison between two different methodologies to define rainfall thresholds for landslide forecasting
Authors: Lagomarsino D. , Segoni S. , Rosi A. , Rossi G. , Battistini A. , Catani F. , Casagli N.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. This work proposes a methodology to compare the forecasting effectiveness of different rainfall threshold models for landslide forecasting. We tested our methodology with two state-of-the-art models, one using intensity-duration thresholds and the other based on cumulative rainfall thresholds. The first model identifies rainfall intensity-duration thresholds by means of a software called MaCumBA (MAssive CUMulative Brisk Analyzer) (Segoni et al., 2014a) that analyzes rain-gauge records, extracts the intensities (I) and durations (D) of the rainstorms associated with the initiation of landslides, plots these values on a diagram, and identifies thresholds that define the lower bounds of the I−D values. A back analysis using data from past events is used to identify the threshold conditions associated with the least amount of false alarms. The second model (SIGMA) (Sistema Integrato Gestione Monitoraggio Allerta) (Martelloni et al., 2012) is based on the hypothesis that anomalous or extreme values of rainfall are responsible for landslide triggering: the statistical distribution of the rainfall series is analyzed, and multiples of the SD (σ) are used as thresholds to discriminate between ordinary and extraordinary rainfall events. The name of the model, SIGMA, reflects the central role of the SDs in the proposed methodology. To perform a quantitative and objective comparison, these two methodologies were applied in two different areas, each time performing a site-specific calibration against available rainfall and landslide data. After each application, a validation procedure was carried out on an independent dataset and a confusion matrix was build. The results of the confusion matrixes were combined to define a series of indexes commonly used to evaluate model performances in natural hazard assessment. The comparison of these indexes allowed assessing the most effective model in each case of study and, consequently, which threshold should be used in the local early warning system in order to obtain the best possible risk management. In our application, none of the two models prevailed absolutely on the other, since each model performed better in a test site and worse in the other one, depending on the physical characteristics of the area. This conclusion can be generalized and it can be assumed that the effectiveness of a threshold model depends on the test site characteristics (including the quality and quantity of the input data) and that a validation and a comparison with alternative models should be performed before the implementation in operational early warning systems.
Geothermal investigations in western Anatolia using equilibrium temperatures from shallow boreholes
Authors: Erkan K.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Determination of the conductive heat flow in western Anatolia has broad implications in many areas, including studies on the present-day extensional tectonic activity and assessments of the geothermal resources in the region. In this study, high-resolution equilibrium temperatures from 113 boreholes with depths of ~100 m were analyzed for determination of the conductive heat flow. Thermal conductivities were either determined by measurements on outcrops or estimated using lithologic records. By a detailed analysis of temperature–depth curves, a total of 55 sites were selected as being useful for further conductive gradient/heat flow calculations, while the remaining 58 sites were abandoned due to hydrological effects on temperatures. Heat flow values with formal errors were calculated for 24 sites where rock thermal conductivity information is available. Due to the shallow depths of the investigated boreholes and uncertainties in thermal conductivity information, the results include a large accumulated error. A preliminary heat flow map is generated using the results of this study and a previous study in the southern Marmara region. Elevated heat flow values of 85–95 mW m-2 are observed in the coastal areas, including peninsular parts of Çanakkale and Izmir. The central part of the Menderes Massif also shows elevated heat flow values, the highest values (>100 mW m-2) being in the northeastern part of the Gediz Graben near the Kula volcanic center. Moderate heat flow values of 55–70 mW m-2 are observed in the eastern part of Çanakkale, central part of Balıkesir, northwest of Manisa, and northeast end of Bursa including Yalova. Some of the observed moderate values may be related to unconstrained near surface phenomena due to shallow depth of measurements. Towards the south of the study region, moderate heat flow values are also observed in Muğla. Previously reported regional heat flow values exceeding ~120 mW m-2 is not observed in the region. The heat flow values reported in this study are comparable to the previously reported values in the Aegean Sea, as the two regions form the back-arc section of the Hellenic subduction zone.
Observatory crustal magnetic biases during CHAMP satellite mission
Authors: Verbanac G. , Mandea M. , Bandić M. , Subašić S.
Published: January 2015

Abstract. Taking advantage of nine years of CHAMP satellite mission (June 2000–August 2009), we investigate the temporal evolution of the observatory monthly crustal magnetic biases. To determine biases we compute X (northward), Y (eastward) and Z (vertically downward) monthly means from 42 observatory one-minute or hourly values, and compare them to synthetic monthly means obtained from a GRIMM3 core field model (V. Lesur, personal communication, 2014). Both short period variations and long term trends in the monthly bias time series are analyzed. A comparison with biases based on MAGSAT and Ørsted satellite data, related to the 1979.92 and 1992.92 epochs is performed. Generally, the larger biases averaged over nine years and the larger differences between biases based on different models are found in Z component. This can be the signature of the induced magnetic fields. Although annual trends in most bias series are observed, no clear evidence that the constant crustal field changed significantly over the studied period is found. Time series of monthly biases exhibit distinct oscillatory pattern in the whole time span, which we assign to the external field contributions. The amplitudes of these variations are linked with the phase of the solar cycle, being significantly larger in the period 2000–2005 than in the period 2006–2009. Clear semi-annual variations are evident in all components, with extremes in spring and fall months of each year. Common external field pattern is found for European monthly biases. A dependence of the bias monthly variations on geomagnetic latitudes is not found for the non-European observatories. The results from this study represent a base to further exploit the observatory and repeat stations magnetic biases together with the data from the new satellite mission SWARM.
Clinical Results with a Supplementary Toric Intraocular Lens for the Correction of Astigmatism in Pseudophakic Patients
Authors: Ferreira Tiago B , Pinheiro João
Published: January 2015

Purpose

To evaluate the visual outcomes of pseudophakic patients who underwent supplementary toric intraocular lens (IOL) implantation to correct astigmatic refractive errors.

Methods

Pseudophakic patients referred for the implantation of a supplementary toric IOL (Sulcoflex Toric 653T) were evaluated. Uncorrected and corrected distance visual acuities (UDVA and CDVA, respectively), spherical equivalent (SE) refraction, rotational stability, higher order aberrations (HOA), and photopic glare and no-glare contrast sensitivity (CSV-1000, VectorVision) were evaluated.

Results

A total of 10 eyes of 10 patients were included. The mean age was 56.42 ± 5.9 years (range 45-65 years). Mean follow-up was 6.99 ± 5.1 months (6-18 months). Postoperatively, UDVA improved to 0.10 ± 0.12 (0.3 to −0.1) (p = 0.004) and CDVA to 0.07 ± 0.12 (0.3 to −0.1) (p = 0.021). Mean SE was −0.30 ± 0.56 D (-1.00 to +0.75) (p = 0.001). Mean toric IOL axis rotation at 6-month follow-up was 3.0° ± 2.45° (0-6). Ocular aberrometry values decreased after surgery (for average HOA root mean square, p = 0.008). Photopic contrast sensitivity (for all spatial frequencies) showed a trend for improvement after surgery; however, this was not borne out from the analysis (p>0.05).

Conclusions

The implantation of the Sulcoflex Toric IOL to correct astigmatism in pseudophakic patients provided excellent visual outcomes, predictability of refractive results, rotational stability, and optical performance. The implantation of this IOL is a safe and effective technique to correct pseudophakic cylindrical refractive errors and reduce spectacle dependence in these patients.
Biomechanical Comparison of the Fixation after Curved Periacetabular Osteotomy Using Titanium and Bioabsorbable Screws
Authors: Kashima Nobuhiro , Shiramizu Kei , Nakamura Yoshinari , Moriyama Shigeaki , Naito Masatoshi
Published: January 2015

Purpose

We performed curved periacetabular osteotomy, a modification of the Bernese periacetabular osteotomy, to treat hip dysplasia. The purpose of our study was to compare the biomechanical stability of acetabular fragments fixed in place with 3 titanium screws, or with 2 or 3 bioabsorbable screws composed of particulate resorbable uncalcined hydroxyapatite (HA) and poly-L-lactic acid (PLLA) termed HA/PLLA screws.

Methods

Curved periacetabular osteotomy was performed on 24 composite model hemipelves. Three groups of 8 specimens were affixed with 1) 3 titanium screws, 2) 2 HA/PLLA screws, or 3) 3 HA/PLLA screws. After fixation, the hemipelves were biomechanically attested with simulated push-off phase of the gait cycle using a servohydraulic material testing system.

Results

The average failure loads were not significantly different among the3 groups tested. However, the group repaired with 3 HA/PLLA screws showed significantly greater stiffness than the other groups.

Conclusions

All 3 fixation methods provided sufficient stability to allow for early partial weight-bearing after surgery. The use of 3 HA/PLLA screws provided significantly greater stiffness for acetabular fragment fixation.
Test-Retest Reliability of the Stair Test in Patients with Total Hip Arthroplasty
Authors: Unver Bayram , Kahraman Turhan , Kalkan Serpil , Yuksel Ertugrul , Karatosun Vasfi , Gunal Izge
Published: January 2015

Purpose

Stair climbing is one of the important functional activities of daily living to maintain mobility and independence. Walking and stair climbing have been identified by clinicians and patients as critical functional activities before and after total hip arthroplasty (THA). Testing the ability to manage steps has been commonly used in clinical and research settings because it is an inexpensive and simple way to measure functional status after THA. The frequent use of this test supports studies seeking evidence to validate stair test (ST) as a measure of physical performance in subjects with THA. The aim of this study is to determine the test-retest reliability of the 9-step ST in patients with THA.

Methods

Patients performed twice trials for the ST on the same day with one hour interval. To assess test-retest reliability, the intra-class correlation coefficient – ICC (2,1), standard error of measurement (SEM), minimal detectable change at the 90% confidence level (MDC90) were calculated.

Results

A total of 37 patients with THA participated in this study. The ST showed very high reliability (ICC = 0.98 (95% CI, 0.96 to 0.99)). The SEM was 0.3 seconds and the MDC90 was 0.7 seconds.

Conclusions

Test-retest reliability of the ST was very high for the patients with THA, and the SEM and MDC90 were adequate for clinical use. The ST is less time consuming and has very high reliability to measure the functional level after THA in the clinical setting.
Piriformis Syndrome: Treatment of a Rare Cause of Posterior Hip Pain with Fluoroscopic-Guided Injection
Authors: Albayrak Akif , Ozcafer Rasit , Balioglu Mehmet B , Kargin Deniz , Atici Yunus , Ermis Mehmet N.
Published: January 2015

Introduction

Piriformis syndrome involves the irritation of the piriformis muscle due to various reasons that are primarily related to anatomical variation or sciatic nerve compression due to contraction caused by overuse. In this study, we aimed to define an injection method that is easy to apply, safe, simple and repeatable.

Materials and Methods

We administered percutaneous lidocaine and depomedrol injections into the hips of 28 patients (14 men and 14 women) under fluoroscopic control. Bipolar injections of the piriformis muscle were performed at the medial pole, the intersection of the sciatic notch and the sacroiliac joint, and at the lateral pole of the femoral insertion region. Each injection was 5 cc, and the contrast agent was observed after the dyeing process.

Results

Clinical examinations were performed before and 6 weeks after the injections. The average of Harris Hip Score increased from a pre-injection score of 44.5 to a post-injection score of 68.5, and the Visual Analog Scale scores decreased from 8.3 to 4.2 (p<0.05).

Comments

Our findings lead to the conclusion that fluoroscopy-guided percutaneous local anaesthetic and corticosteroid injection is a simple and effective piriformis syndrome treatment that can feasibly be effectively performed by orthopaedic surgeons.
Fuentes Renovables y Generación de Energia Limpia su regulación en Honduras
Authors: Cordova Guevara Oscar Javier
Published: January 2015

El presente trabajo de investigación nos ha conducido a conocer, documentar y ana-lizar, la situación difícil que actualmente atraviesa nuestro país a causa de los altos costos de producir y comercializar la energía hidroeléctrica y la energía térmica. Primero por los altos costos de inversión en la construcción y generación. Lo segundo por los los altos costos en el consumo de combustible fósil derivado del petróleo invirtiendo el estado millonarias cantidades de dinero acompañada esta actividad por contratos que afectan la economía del país.Se ha concluido que el país de forma natural cuenta con alternativas de poder generar energía que le permitirá un ahorro tangible al Estado y a la población en general por lo que se está recomendando las nuevas “Fuentes Renovables y Generación de Energías Limpias y su Regulación Hondureña” esto permitirá que estos costos e inversión se traduzca en ahorros y estos se trasladen o inviertan en proyectos sociales que tanta falta hacen. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5377/lrd.v35i0.1785 Revista de Derecho, Vol. 34, Nº 1, Año 2013: 93-112
Las pandillas salvadoreñas y su comportamiento delictivo: Prospectiva de sus formas organizativas y expansión territorial para el próximo decenio 2015-2025
Authors: Von Santos Herard
Published: January 2015

El presente análisis abordará como ejes centrales el origen de las pandillas, quiénes las conforman, la organización o estructuración con la que cuentan, las actividades ilícitas que ejecutan, su control territorial y, a partir de ello, se elaborará una prospectiva relativa a tres escenarios estimados para el próximo decenio, situación que, por hoy, conforma el mayor reto a la seguridad pública del país.Pero ¿Cómo se mide el impacto de las pandillas en una sociedad?, algunos parámetro podrían ser: La medida del alcance y la expansión territorial, el total de su actividad delictiva, su disposición de romper el orden social establecido, su capacidad para desplazar y sustituir el control estatal y su capacidad para acabar con la vida del ser humano.De igual manera, se arrojará luz sobre la incidencia que grupos delictivos externos o internos del crimen organizado tienen para influir en estas tendencias, y las políticas y recursos que el Estado ha utilizado para impedir o disminuir la concreción de estas tendencias en el accionar de las pandillas. Además, se incluirá el análisis de las posibles medidas a implementarse para contrarrestar estas tendencias delictivas.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5377/rpsp.v4i2.1762
La economía informal y su conexión con el avance de formas delictivas organizadas: Prospectiva para el decenio 2015-2025
Authors: Fagoaga López Walter Antonio
Published: January 2015

La economía informal es parte de las realidades estructurales de casi todos los países en el mundo, siendo aquellos que están en condición de subdesarrollo, los más representativos del empuje de éste tipo de actividad económica. No obstante, a pesar ser una fuente de ingresos para un segmento representativo de la población económicamente activa, por sus características asociadas a la falta de estandarización y controles, puede prestarse para ser el nicho de la actividad criminal y potencialmente de asociaciones criminales a niveles de crimen organizado. En este artículo se analiza, a través de diversas evidencias empíricas, la relación que se tienen entre la economía informal y el avance de las asociaciones criminales –pandillas y otros grupos– en El Salvador, con la finalidad de proponer escenarios prospectivos de 10 años, comprendidos de 2015 a 2025, que hagan una prognosis de su evolución a partir de un crecimiento de sus ingresos económicos. Se concluye considerando el papel que juega la economía informal en esta incómoda relación.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5377/rpsp.v4i2.1763
Discurso del Coordinador Principal del CINC-ANSP en la presentación del quinto número de la revista “Policía y Seguridad Pública”
Authors: Editor El
Published: January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5377/rpsp.v4i2.1772
Cine: El día después
Authors: Morales Peña Juan Carlos
Published: January 2015

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5377/rpsp.v4i2.1776
"Illness Is Nothing But Injustice": The Revolutionary Element in Bengali Folk Healing
Authors: Ferrari Fabrizio M.
Published: January 2015

This article seeks to reflect on how concepts such as "ritual," "illness," and "health" are intertwined in the practice of Bengali healers and their customers. By objecting to past and present logics that ascribe to folk healing an innate subalternity because of context (e.g., the village), mode of transmission (e.g., orality), gender and social background of votaries (e.g., low-caste, working-class sectors), my analysis discusses health-seeking rituals as an arena for revolutionary negotiations. This character is determined by the willingness of healers, health-seekers, and other-than-human entities (deities, spirits, demons, ghosts, etc.) to counter relative injustice, negotiate power, and actualize redemption by means of a radical, though often temporary, subversion of or challenge to an established order. This reading, which I derive from Ernesto de Martino’s "progressive folklore," wishes to contribute to discourses on religious folklore as a way of expressing, and perpetuating acceptable solutions to individual and social imbalance, including the perception of illness as uneven development. Folk healing is one of the liveliest forms of people’s knowledge; the actualization of ancestral needs; and one of the most easily available and culturally understandable form of creativity, reflexivity, and education. While critically addressing the limits of using de Martino’s theories in the frame of post-colonial ethnography, I go back to his definition of culture as the result of the "victorious struggle of health over the pitfalls of disease" ([1958] 2000:25) and discuss illness and its treatment among Bengali healers and their clients as ways to experience what de Martino called the expansion of self-consciousness.
If the Mother of God Does Not Listen: Women’s Contested Agency and the Lived Meaning of the Orthodox Religion in North Karelia
Authors: Honkasalo Marja-Liisa
Published: January 2015

Finnish Orthodox women’s ambiguous situation of interfaith marriages in Lutheran, secular Finland is marked by a peculiar triple sense of otherness, causing elements of deep crisis among many. Employing Ernesto de Martino’s concept of "dehistoricizing," the author claims that domestic religious rituals restore women’s agency and give them metahistorical solace. The ritual presence of the Mother of God binds together separate elements of domestic life and a mythical common past that creates and recreates mothers’ agency within the interfaith dilemma.
Respeito e reciprocidade, referenciais da moralidade kaingang
Authors: Cimbaluk Lucas
Published: January 2015

Este artigo propõe o conceito de moralidade para a análise da sociabilidade kaingang como fundada na reciprocidade e no respeito. Além da generosidade e da troca, a “lei” interna é um elemento retórico e prático a propor formas de comportamento vistas como necessárias para evitar a “bagunça” e garantir o respeito entre as famílias, condenando-se os “erros”. Reciprocidade e respeito são defendidos neste trabalho como elementos fundamentais ao próprio poder atribuído ao cacique, posição que condensa tais referenciais, uma vez que a chefia deve representar um exemplo a todos os demais e articular os diferentes grupos que compõem a comunidade. Desta maneira, a moralidade, marcada espacial e temporalmente, regula a própria composição da coletividade, enquanto parentagens e famílias vivendo em conjunto, e define possibilidades de oposição quando é preciso redefinir alteridades.
Mulheres e crianças Kaingang da aldeia Icatu/SP: etiquetas de convivialidade
Authors: Silva Thais Regina Mantovanelli da
Published: January 2015

O presente artigo propõe discutir as relações entre mulheres Kaingang da aldeia Icatu, no estado de São Paulo, suas crianças e o espaço das casas. O que a etnografia mostra é a primazia de etiquetas de convívio pautadas pela lógica da não visitação entre pessoas de casas distintas. Tal esquema de convivialidade, que também se estende para as relações entre adultos e crianças, permite a não mistificação da imagem de criança indígena como mensageira ou livre de restrições a certos convívios. Mostra ainda que índios no estado de São Paulo formulam criativamente suas ações trazendo questões importantes para o debate da etnologia indígena, muito além das teorias de aculturação e assimilação, ao qual foram associados.
Targeting platelet receptors in thrombotic and thrombo-inflammatory disorders
Authors: Vögtle T. , Cherpokova D. , Bender M. , Nieswandt B.
Published: January 2015

Platelet activation at sites of vascular injury is critical for the formation of a hemostatic plug which limits excessive blood loss, but also represents a major pathomechanism of ischemic cardio- and cerebrovascular diseases. Although currently available antiplatelet therapies have proved beneficial in preventing the recurrence of vascular events, their adverse effects on primary hemostasis emphasize the necessity to identify and characterize novel pharmacological targets for platelet inhibition. Increasing experimental evidence has suggested that several major platelet surface receptors which regulate initial steps of platelet adhesion and activation may become promising new targets for anti-platelet drugs due to their involvement in thrombotic and thrombo-inflammatory signaling cascades.

This review summarizes recent developments in understanding the function of glycoprotein (GP)Ib, GPVI and the C-type lectin-like receptor 2 (CLEC-2) in hemostasis, arterial thrombosis and thrombo-inflammation and will discuss the suitability of the receptors as novel targets to treat these diseases in humans.
Electricity Futures Prices in an Emissions Constrained Economy: Evidence from European Power Markets
Authors: Daskalakis George , Symeonidis Lazaros , Markellos Raphael N.
Published: January 2015

We investigate the economic factors that drive electricity risk premia in the European emissions constrained economy. Our analysis is undertaken for monthly baseload electricity futures for delivery in the Nordic, French and British power markets. We find that electricity risk premia are significantly related to the volatility of electricity spot prices, demand and revenues, and the price volatility of the carbon dioxide (CO2) futures traded under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS). This finding has significant implications for the pricing of electricity futures since it highlights for the first time the role of carbon market uncertainties as a main determinant of the relationship between spot and futures electricity prices in Europe. Our results also suggest that for the electricity markets under scrutiny futures prices are determined rationally by risk-averse economic agents.
Cursed Resources? Political Conditions and Oil Market Outcomes
Authors: Metcalf Gilbert E. , Wolfram Catherine
Published: January 2015

We analyze how a country’s political institutions affect oil production within its borders. We find a pronounced negative relationship between political openness and volatility in oil production, with democratic regimes exhibiting less volatility than more autocratic regimes. This relationship holds across a number of robustness checks including using different measures of political conditions, instrumenting for political conditions and using several measures of production volatility. Political openness also affects other oil market outcomes, including total production as a share of reserves. Our findings have implications both for interpreting the role of institutions in explaining differences in macroeconomic development and for understanding world oil markets.
The Future of Long-term LNG Contracts
Authors: Hartley Peter R.
Published: January 2015

Long-term contracts have long dominated the international market for LNG. Since 2000, however, the proportion of LNG-traded spot or under short-term contracts has grown substantially, while long-term contracts have become more flexible. While long-term contracts increase the debt capacity of large, long-lived, capital investments by reducing cash flow variability, they also may limit the ability of the contracting parties to take advantage of profitable ephemeral trading opportunities. After developing a model that illustrates these trade-offs, we argue that increased LNG market liquidity resulting from a number of exogenous changes is likely to encourage much greater volume and destination flexibility in contracts and increased reliance on short-term and spot market trades. These changes would, in turn, reinforce the initial increase in market liquidity.
Energy Abundance, Trade and Specialization
Authors: Gerlagh Reyer , Mathys Nicole A. , Michielsen Thomas O.
Published: January 2015

Do countries with large energy endowments have larger energy-intensive sectors? We answer this question empirically using a panel with 14 high-income countries from Europe, America and Asia and 10 broad sectors, from 1970 to 1997. Energy-abundant countries have 7 to 10 percent higher employment and 13 to 17 percent higher net exports per value added in energy-intensive sectors vis-a-vis otherwise comparable countries. Conversely, energy-scarce countries specialize in non-energy-intensive sectors.
The Implicit Carbon Price of Renewable Energy Incentives in Germany
Authors: Marcantonini Claudio , Ellerman A.Denny
Published: January 2015

This research analyzes the German experience in promoting Renewable Energy (RE) as an instrument to reduce GHG emissions. It identifies the cost of reducing CO2 emissions in the power sector through the promotion of wind and solar energy for the years 2006-2010. A RE carbon surcharge and an implicit carbon price due to the RE incentives are calculated. The RE carbon surcharge is the ratio of the net cost of the RE over the CO2 emission reductions resulting from actual RE injections into the electric power system. The implicit carbon price is the sum of the RE carbon surcharge and the EUA price. Results show that for the period analyzed both the RE carbon surcharge and the implicit carbon price of wind are on the order of tens of euro per tonne of CO2, while for solar are on the order of hundreds of euro per tonne of CO2.
Improving Energy Codes
Authors: Jacobsen Grant D.
Published: January 2015

Energy codes set efficiency standards for buildings in the majority of U.S. states. Under most energy codes, builders can comply by demonstrating that the projected private expenditures on energy bills for a proposed building are less than a certain threshold. Using theory and evidence, I show that energy codes would be improved if compliance was instead determined by the projected social damages. Relative to current practice, damage-based codes would likely provide stronger incentives for electricity than natural gas conservation, in most states. Implementation of damage-based codes would lead to substantial welfare gains.
Bijzondere onderzoeksmethoden nader bekeken: conjunctanalyse (vignettenmethode)
Authors: Groenewoud Maikel , van Rij Coen
Published: January 2015

Bijzondere onderzoeksmethoden nader bekeken: conjunctanalyse (vignettenmethode)

Om inzicht in te krijgen in de wijze waarop werkgevers kiezen tussen kandidaten voor het vervullen van vacatures, hebben we dit keuzeproces gesimuleerd, gebruikmakend van conjunctanalyse (ook bekend als de vignettenmethode). We hebben voor deze methode gekozen omdat hiermee het proces, dat werkgevers in de praktijk doorlopen bij dergelijke keuzes, dicht wordt benaderd. Verder is bij het gebruik van deze methode het risico van sociaal wenselijk antwoordgedrag kleiner dan bij directe bevraging van respondenten. Voor beleidsmakers is het belangrijk om te weten of het keuzeproces van werkgevers kan worden beïnvloed door de inzet van re-integratie-instrumenten zoals loonkostensubsidie. Op basis van de uitkomsten van de conjunctanalyse is het mogelijk voor een willekeurige kandidaat te schatten hoe aantrekkelijk hij of zij in het algemeen door werkgevers wordt gevonden, zowel zonder als met de inzet van instrumenten zoals loonkostensubsidie.
Onderzoek door lokale rekenkamers: maatschappelijke effecten versus beleidstechniek
Authors: Hanemaayer Dick
Published: January 2015

Onderzoek door lokale rekenkamers: maatschappelijke effecten versus beleidstechniek

De opname van de rekenkamerfunctie in de Gemeentewet (medio jaren nul) betekende een belangrijke uitbreiding van de lokale en regionale onderzoeksinfrastructuur, bood perspectieven op versterking van de rol van de gemeenteraad respectievelijk Provinciale Staten, en bood perspectieven op meer evidence-based beleid. De missie van rekenkamers zou zijn om onderzoek te doen naar doeltreffendheid en doelmatigheid van beleid. Wat nu blijkt, is dat rekenkamers onderzoek doen naar de beleidstechniek op basis van de beleidscyclus, en niet naar doeltreffendheid en doelmatigheid van beleid. Onderzoek naar beleidstechniek is een enkele keer nuttig, maar zeker niet als voornaamste (of: enige) thema van rekenkameronderzoek. Een radicale koerswijziging wordt bepleit: één waarin de maatschappelijke effecten van beleid centraal staan.
Effectmeting bij veldexperimenten; Lessen uit de gezondheidszorg
Authors: Weijnen Tom
Published: January 2015

Effectmeting bij veldexperimenten; Lessen uit de gezondheidszorg

In een veldexperiment worden gegevens over de kosten en effecten van een bepaalde interventie verzameld bij personen die onderwerp zijn van de interventie. Kenmerkend is dat het onderzoek bestaat uit ten minste twee groepen van deelnemers.
Fault Tolerant Control Architecture Design for Mobile Manipulation in Scientific Facilities
Authors: Aref Mohammad M. , Oftadeh Reza , Ghabcheloo Reza , Mattila Jouni
Published: January 2015

This paper describes one of the challenging issues implied by scientific infrastructures on a mobile robot cognition architecture. For a generally applicable cognition architecture, we study the dependencies and logical relations between several tasks and subsystems. The overall view of the software modules is described, including their relationship with a fault management module that monitors the consistency of the data flow among the modules. The fault management module is the solution of the deliberative architecture for the single point failures, and the safety anchor is the reactive solution for the faults by redundant equipment. In addition, a hardware architecture is proposed to ensure safe robot movement as a redundancy for the cognition of the robot. The method is designed for a four-wheel steerable (4WS) mobile manipulator (iMoro) as a case study.
Avaliação de habilidades motoras de uma criança com paralisia cerebral incluída em contexto escolar regular
Authors: Baleotti Luciana Ramos , Santos Ludimila Aparecida Dos , Zafani Mariana Dutra
Published: January 2015

A possibilidade de avaliar as habilidades motoras de alunos com paralisia cerebral (PC) pode ser uma estratégia eficaz a possibilitar a interdisciplinaridade entre terapeutas ocupacionais e professores na busca de alternativas que viabilizem o sucesso da inclusão desses alunos. Objetivou-se avaliar e descrever as habilidades motoras de uma criança com PC na realização de atividades escolares. Participaram do estudo uma criança com PC do tipo hemiparética, com cinco anos de idade, e seu professor. Para coleta de dados utilizou-se um roteiro de entrevista aplicado ao professor a fim de identificar duas atividades difíceis de a criança realizar, e uma escala de avaliação de habilidades motoras (School-AMPS). Esta foi utilizada para coletar os dados durante a observação da criança em ambiente naturalístico, realizando as atividades previamente indicadas pelo professor. A análise de dados da entrevista foi subsidiada pela abordagem qualitativa e a análise de dados da School-AMPS foi feita com base na pontuação obtida pela criança em cada um dos itens desta escala. Os resultados da entrevista revelaram que as atividades difíceis de a criança realizar eram o recorte e a escrita. Os dados da School-AMPS permitiram identificar as habilidades e os aspectos funcionais que podem ser estimulados pelo professor no contexto educacional. Este estudo possibilitou verificar a participação e/ou a restrição em atividades reais e significativas para o sujeito. Os resultados apresentados podem ser úteis aos profissionais da educação que trabalham com essa clientela, auxiliando-os no processo de intervenção interdisciplinar que busca a participação da criança em atividades.
Influência da variabilidade interdecadal do clima associada ao ENOS sobre o estado do Ceará
Authors: Silva Djane Fonseca da
Published: January 2015

O objetivo desta pesquisa é analisar as influências das ocorrências simultâneas de ENOS e ODP e ENOS e OMA sobre as precipitações no estado do Ceará. Os dados de precipitação utilizados foram obtidos através da FUNCEME. Os anos escolhidos e que ocorreram eventos de ENOS e ODP foram 1972, 1982, 1975 e 1988; os anos que ocorreram eventos de ENOS e OMA foram 1992, 2002, 1974 e 1999. As fases contrárias de ENOS e ODP promoveram diminuição da precipitação. Na ocorrência de La Niña e ODP na fase negativa, todo o estado do Ceará apresentou anomalias positivas, corroborando com os resultados de Gershunov e Barnett (1988). Já com a junção das mesmas fases frias com La Niña e OMA negativa, há o maior aumento nas chuvas médias anuais do Ceará.
Los bienes comunes intangibles en el capitalismo cognitivo.
Authors: Ramis Olivos Álvaro
Published: January 2015

Este texto analizará críticamente la actual fase económica para mostrar la importancia de los bienes comunes intangibles. Sondea la tesis de un nuevo modo de producción «en ciernes», basado en la gestión colaborativa. Analiza los intangibles de acuerdo a su calidad y carácter. Compara los sistemas de patentes y derechos de propiedad intelectual que permiten su apropiación y las resistencias a su «comoditización» desde el software libre y las propuestas de flexibilización de derechos de autor. Advierte sobre el «fetichismo tecnológico» y propone un marco mínimo de discernimiento en dilemas vinculados a estas materias.It will scan critically the current economic phase to show the importance of the intangible commons. Investigate the thesis of a new mode of production based on collaborative knowledge management. Analyze the specificities of the intangible commons according to their quality and character. We will compare the patent and intellectual property rights that allow its appropriation. Study the resistance to its «commoditization» from the free software paradigm and the proposed relaxation of copyright. Warn of the risks of new forms of «technological fetishism» and conclude by proposing a minimum framework of discernment dilemmas in these matters.
Response to Comments by Harrison
Authors: Boyd Carolyn E. , Castañeda Amanda M. , Koenig Charles W.
Published: January 2015

In our article “A Reexamination of Red Linear Style in the Lower Pecos Canyonlands of Texas,” we presented the results of an analysis of 444 Red Linear style pictographs from 12 sites in the region. Using this greatly expanded data set, we produced a list of diagnostic attributes for the style and documented stratigraphie relationships among pictographs through macro- and microscopic field analysis. We identified 38 examples of Red Linear under Pecos River style, a style previously assumed to be older than Red Linear. No Red Linear figures were identified superimposing Pecos River style. These results were verified by an independent group of archaeologists and chemists engaged in the analysis of Lower Pecos rock art. We concluded that Red Linear style is either older than or contemporaneous with Pecos River style. In Harrison’s comments, he argues that our methods were faulty and the data inadequate to support our conclusions. We address a few of Harrison’s critiques in our response; however, a more careful reading of the original article and supplemental materials is advised.
Geographic Information System Modeling of De Soto’s Route from Joara to Chiaha: Archaeology and Anthropology of Southeastern Road Networks in the Sixteenth Century
Authors: Sampeck Kathryn , Thayn Jonathan , Earnest Howard H.
Published: January 2015

This research revisits the question of the most likely paths traveled during the 1540 entrada of Hernando de Soto and colonizing efforts of Juan Pardo about 20 years later by utilizing the spatial modeling method of geographic information system (GIS) analysis to evaluate the favorability of different paths and place them within the context of recent archaeological and ethnohistoric research. Analysis results make the larger anthropological point that GIS route modeling should explicitly take into account the size of the party traveling. Routes for small parties are not the same as optimal routes for large armies such as de Soto’s, which included hundreds of people, pieces of equipment, and livestock. The GIS-modeled routes correlate with the distribution of contact-period archaeological sites and attested eighteenth-century routes. More accurate estimation of Spanish routes allows us to better model the Native American social, economic, and political nexus of this period, showing that the residents in far eastern Tennessee were probably part of a dynamic borderlands between the chiefdom of Coosa to the west and the ancestral Cherokee heartland to the east. This anthropological refinement in GIS modeling will be useful in investigating ancient paths of interaction in many parts of the world.
Inbound Marketing en LinkedIn para la gestión de marca
Authors: Guadalupe Guadalupe Aguado
Published: January 2015

El presente trabajo analiza hasta qué punto las prestaciones de Linkedin están orientadas al Inbound Marketing para la gestión de marca, partiendo de que se los usuarios los que llegan a las marcas e interactúan con ellas cuando se produce la necesidad. Para lo cual se requiere de técnicas de comunicación no intrusivas que aporten valor en términos de información, formación, soluciones, experiencia y diversión. Para ello se profundiza en los diferentes usos y herramientas que ha ido desarrollando LinkedIn en su primera y que son esenciales en dicha gestión de marca. Se analiza cómo dicha red ha ido orientando sus prestaciones hacia el marketing de contenidos, el marketing de influencia, el marketing de permiso y el marketing relacional. Se observa cómo se han potenciado estrategias de personalización, buscando la combinación de contenidos relevanes con audiencias relevantes.
Le terrorisme est une violence politique comme les autres
Authors: Clément Pierre-Alain
Published: January 2015

L’objectif de cet article est de contribuer à la réflexion sur la typologie des violences politiques et du terrorisme. Une voie délaissée par le champ, y compris par la recherche théorique. Le but est de marginaliser les dilemmes clivants et fréquents du champ, notamment sur la définition et la causalité du terrorisme. La typologie des violences politiques proposée est déductive. Elle évite deux faiblesses des typologies actuelles : dépendance à une définition du terrorisme et absence de lien entre violences étatiques et subétatiques. Trois critères définissent l’acte violent : mandat, intention et ciblage. La variable temps est intégrée pour une analyse dynamique des organisations violentes.
Gagner de l’influence dans une négociation asymétrique
Authors: Obertan Paméla
Published: January 2015

Dans une institution internationale comme l’Organisation mondiale du commerce (OMC) où les relations sont fortement asymétriques, les pays les plus faibles sont structurellement défavorisés. Toutefois, ils peuvent combattre cette tendance en formant des coalitions, comme le suggère la littérature théorique. C’est cette voie qu’ont choisie à l’OMC de nombreux pays en voie de développement. Avec le temps, leurs coalitions sont devenues beaucoup plus efficaces pour contrer les prétentions des pays plus puissants à durcir la réglementation sur les brevets. La coalition de pays en voie de développement qui s’est mobilisée autour des questions de propriété intellectuelle et de biopiraterie a obtenu un certain succès, lequel peut s’expliquer par le choix d’une forme combinant solidité et souplesse.
L’« ingérence démocratique » en Afrique comme institution, dispositif et scène
Authors: Keutcheu Joseph
Published: January 2015

La présente étude décrit l’ingérence comme étant ritualisée dans un contexte de montée en puissance de la démocratie en tant que sujet de préoccupation internationale. La formation d’un référentiel international de la gestion démocratique de l’État en Afrique s’impose ainsi aussi bien aux « entrepreneurs d’intervention » qu’aux « importateurs » de modèles institutionnels dans ce continent. La mise en oeuvre d’instruments internationaux d’action publique de promotion de la démocratie ouvre la possibilité de voir des logiques réalistes à l’oeuvre dans les différentes formes d’intervention. Elle permet également d’envisager l’interventionnisme et la réception de « modèles institutionnels » en Afrique comme des « rites d’interaction » au sens où Goffman l’entend.
L’infléchissement parabolique dans Le chant du Dire-Dire de Daniel
Danis
Authors: Brousseau Rivet Geneviève , David Gilbert
Published: January 2015

Le présent article déplie les différentes strates du récit dramatique où
s’entremêlent récit de vie et témoignages des trois frères Durant au fil d’une étourdissante
suite de péripéties, ce qui conduit à en dégager une double vision parabolique qui scelle
finalement le statut métadramatique de l’oeuvre, ouverte dès lors à une interprétation sans
fin. Outre à cette dimension autotélique, il faut certainement accorder de l’intérêt à la
posture paratopique de l’auteur, qui prend ses distances à l’égard de la naturalisation du
verbe dans le champ théâtral québécois, tout en y allant de ses propres images verbales et
de ses néologismes qui relèvent d’un procédé d’« étrangéisation ».