DYNAMICS IN HIV INCIDENCE IN RUSSIA AND CONSTITUENT ENTITIES OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION, 2016-2022
Authors:   Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow, Tsybikova Erzheny ,   Russia, Kotlovskiy Mikhail ,   Federal Research Institute for Health Organization and Informatics of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Moscow; Russia, Fadeeva Svetlana ,   Republican Center for Public Health and Medical Prevention, Grozny, Russia,   Yaroslavl State Medical University, Yaroslavl, Russia, Lorsanov Suleiman ,   Ministry of Health of the Chechen Republic, Grozny, Russia
Published: June 2024

Significance. The WHO global health sector strategy on HIV, viral hepatitis and sexually transmitted infections and the UNAIDS Global AIDS strategy aim to accelerate the global response to eliminate HIV infection in many countries around the world by 2030. According to UNAIDS, 39 million people worldwide were living with HIV in 2022 including 29.8 million people receiving antiretroviral therapy, which is 76.4% of the total number. In Russia for the period from 2017 to 2022 the number of newly diagnosed HIV cases dropped from 77,467 to 55,573, including during the Covid-19 pandemic. For the first time in 18 years, there has been a decline in the incidence of HIV infection in Russia. In this regard, it is relevant and timely to analyze changes in the incidence. The purpose of the study was to analyze dynamics in HIV incidence in Russia and constituent entities of the Russian Federation from 2016 to 2022. Material and methods: the analysis used information from the Federal statistical observation form No.61 and Rosstat data on the Russian population and population of 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2016-2022. Statistical processing used regression analysis methods. A simple linear regression model is constructed (scikit-learn 1.0.2 and Statsmodels 0.13.5). Results. In Russia, since 2019, the incidence of HIV infection has been decreasing and in 2022 it equaled to 37.8 per 100,000 population, which was largely due to a higher coverage of HIV-infected people with antiretroviral therapy, the share of whom increased from 50.1% to 83.3% in 2017-2021. Identifying a relationship between the HIV incidence and number of newly diagnosed HIV cases in 85 constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2016-2022 shows that in 2016, in 11 of them, the percentage change in the HIV incidence did not correspond to the percentage change in the number of newly diagnosed HIV cases, up in its excess. However, in 2022, the number of such constituent entities decreased to singular, accompanied by a convergence of the outlying values with the upper limit of the confidence interval. The reason for this situation was the decreased population in 9 out of 11 constituent entities of this group. In 12 other constituent entities, the percentage change in HIV incidence in 2016 increasingly deviated from the corresponding percentage change in the number of newly diagnosed HIV cases, downwards. As a result, in 2022, the outlying values in 10 constituent entities were increasingly moving away from the lower limit of the confidence interval. The main reason for the current situation was a rise in population in this group of constituent entities of the Russian Federation. Conclusion. A decrease in the number of newly diagnosed patients with HIV infection with a simultaneous decrease in the population size is the dominant factor in determining incidence of HIV infection in constituent entities of the Russian Federation. As the number of newly diagnosed HIV cases declines and the population grows, the impact of this factor on HIV incidence increases. An increase in the number of constituent entities with the decreasing number of newly diagnosed HIV cases is reducing, and especially those with a simultaneous increase in population, will contribute to a faster trend pivot towards a decreasing HIV incidence.