Exploring the link between foresight and artificial intelligence methods to strengthen collective future-building in contexts of social instability
Authors: Trujillo-Cabezas Raúl 
Published: October 2024

Purpose

The study explores the connection between foresight and Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods in a community within an environment of social instability in Colombia. It aims to contribute to research on aligning these methods for future-shaping, with the goal of enhancing shared governance, peer learning and collective learning among traditional decision-makers and local communities in emerging countries. The study seeks to foster a community of social actors who are likely to engage constructively in strategic dialogues. To enhancing shared governance and learning a hybrid model is synthesized, combining foresight and computational intelligence.

Design/methodology/approach

The case study explores the integration of computational intelligence and foresight through Gaston Bachelard's (Bachelard, 1936) phenomenology concept of ante-perception. The mathematical representation of the cone of scenarios provides a structured way to explore multiple future pathways, allowing communities to visualize and compare different trajectories and make informed decisions amid uncertainty. The model facilitates critical reflections on present assumptions, deepening insights into future scenarios. Ante-perception challenges traditional approaches to foresight by encouraging a break from established experiences, allowing for novel insights into possible futures. When enriched by computational intelligence, this reflective process is further strengthened by quantitative approach scenario modeling.

Findings

This research develops and tests a proposal that includes the logic and methods for constructing a mathematical representation of the cone of scenarios. This process, which is interactive and deliberative, is driven by anticipation and combines qualitative and quantitative approaches within a context of high uncertainty. By combining the critical reflection facilitated by ante-perception with the predictive power of computational intelligence, the model allows communities to transcend established thought patterns and explore innovative future possibilities. This integrative approach helps them envision and work toward social self-transformation.

Research limitations/implications

The article aims to identify the creation of scenarios in contexts of high uncertainty, to respond to the needs of communities in emerging countries to manage change.

Practical implications

This article explores a novel approach to using foresight for address collective intelligence by developing a shared future vision in high-uncertainty contexts within local communities in emerging countries. The application of the hybrid model demonstrates that foresight is a key innovative social tool for developing long-term strategic reflection and planning for territories.

Social implications

In developing long-term reflective processes, explaining phenomena, mechanisms and correlations requires the use of value judgments. This set of value judgments requires a representation that facilitates their treatment, helps to account for their behavior during the inference process to form a shared future vision. Consequently, ensuring the recognition of the opinions of local communities through participatory discussion spaces and their subsequent refinement, from a technical perspective, aims to illustrate the development of this social construction process. While similarities exist, differences add value through a transfer process, often subconscious. This process stimulates collective learning and builds capacities as knowledge is developed through inquiry, evaluation, interpretation and generalization.

Originality/value

This research provides a unique hybrid model that fosters collective learning and engagement by integrating local community perspectives with advanced computational intelligence methods. By facilitating both reflective and quantitative approach future-shaping, it offers a practical framework for addressing uncertainty while empowering communities to shape their own futures. It underscores the importance of recognizing local community views through bottom-up participatory discussions, thereby widening the stakeholder community to active engagement in addressing broader societal issues. The case study focuses on community collaboration in Puerto Gaitán, a Colombian municipality.