bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A novel method for actual evapotranspiration from a soil moisture optical trapezoid model
Authors: Mokhtari Ali , Sadeghi Morteza , Afrasiabian Yasamin , Yu Kang
Published: February 2023

To bypass the thermal data requirement for actual evapotranspiration (ETa) estimation in satellite remote sensing, two general approaches have been taken into practice based on previous efforts: (1) Multi-sensor data fusion for thermal sharpening and (2) the use of the process-based models such as the Penman-Monteith and Shuttleworth-Wallace equations augmented with satellite-based crop parameters. To address this issue, this study introduced an optical satellite data-based ETa estimation model, OPTRAM-ET, based on the optical trapezoid model (OPTRAM) estimates of soil moisture. The new model has been applied to Sentinel-2 and Landsat-8 images over 16 eddy covariance flux towers in the United States and Germany. The flux towers were chosen in a way to cover different ranges of landcover types, e.g., agriculture, orchard, permanent wetlands, and foothill forests. In order to assess the model in comparison to a thermal-based conventional method, the land surface temperature (LST)-vegetation index (VI) model was utilized. The results of the proposed OPTRAM-ET model showed promising performance in all the studied regions. While agricultural sites showed higher correlation due to their wider range of ETa values, error indicators were lower in foothill forests because soil moisture changes were smaller compared to irrigated and wet lands. In addition, the OPTRAM-ET model showed comparable performance to the conventional LST-VI model. The OPTRAM-ET model however does not need thermal data, and it benefits from higher spatial and temporal resolution data provided by ever-increasing drone- and satellite-based optical sensors to predict crop water status and demand. It is worth noting that the thermal sharpening step was excluded in this model which subsequently makes the model substantially less computationally demanding than a thermal-based model. Unlike the LST-VI model, which needs to be calibrated for each satellite image, a temporally-invariant region-specific calibration is possible in the OPTRAM-ET model. Importantly, the model requires further enhancement due to limitations caused by the simplified basic assumptions.
Robustness of critical slowing down indicators to power-law extremes in an Amazon rainforest model
Authors: Benson Vitus , Donges Jonathan F. , Vollmer Jürgen , Wunderling Nico
Published: February 2023

Critical slowing down has recently been detected as an indicator of reduced resilience in remotely sensed data of the Amazon rainforest [1]. Tropical rainforests are frequently hit by disturbances such as fire, windthrow, deforestation or drought, which are known to follow a heavy-tailed amplitude distribution. Early warning signals based on critical slowing down are theoretically grounded for systems under the influence of weak, Gaussian noise. Hence, it is not imminent that they are applicable also for systems like the Amazon rainforest, which are influenced by heavy-tailed noise. Here, we extended a conceptual model of the Amazon rainforest [2] to study the robustness of critical slowing down indicators to power-law extremes. These indicators are expected to increase before a critical transition. We find the way by which such an increase is detected is decisive for the recall of the early warning indicator (i.e. the proportion of critical transitions detected by the indicator). If a linear slope is taken, the recall of the early warning signal is reduced under power-law extremes. Instead, the Kendall-Tau rank correlation coefficient should be used because the recall remains high in this case. Other approaches to increase robustness, like a high-pass filter or the interquartile range, are less effective. In [1], reduced resilience of the Amazon rainforest was determined through an increase in the lag-1 autocorrelation measured by the Kendall-tau rank correlation. Hence, if there was a resilience loss, they can correctly detect it even in the presence of relatively strong power-law disturbances. However, we also quantify the false positive rate, that is, how often a resilience loss is measured if the model represents a stable rainforest. At a significance level of 5% (1%, 10%) for the early warning signal detection, the false positive rate is approximately 10% (5%, 15%). For strong heavy-tailed noise, this false positive rate can deteriorate to as high as 25% (15%, 35%). This indicates, that increasing critical slowing down may not always be caused by an approaching critical transition, a false positive detection is possible. [1] Boulton, C.,  Lenton, T.  and Boers, N.: “Pronounced Loss of Amazon Rainforest Resilience since the Early 2000s”. Nature Climate Change 12-3 (2022).[2] Van Nes, E., Hirota, M., Holmgren, M. and Scheffer, M.: “Tipping Points in Tropical Tree Cover”. Global Change Biology 20-3 (2014).
Nature-based solutions for wildfire risk management: the role of insurance
Authors: Bayer JoAnne , Bacciu Valentina , Plana Eduard , Sousa Luis , Surminski Swenja , Deubelli-Hwang teresa
Published: February 2023

A consensus is emerging that restoring the fire-adapted forest ecology through nature-based solutions (NBS), such as prioritizing fire-resistant vegetation, promoting less fire-prone forests, enabling grazing by herbivores in areas facing land abandonment, prescribed burns, and restricted or risk-adapted development in wildlands, can reduce the risk of extreme wildfires. This paradigm shift away from fire suppression towards a fire loss-prevention strategy is urgently needed. The question is whether risk financing strategies, especially insurance, can untap the potential for promoting NBS, for example, by providing protection in case of damages from livestock grazing or prescribed burns, or by giving discounts to forest owners and homeowners that pursue ecological fire-prevention measures. Additionally, insurers can provide (parametric) policies that repair ecological damage, for example, for coral reefs after extreme storms, or policies that transfer the construction or liability risk of NBS. Since wildfire mitigation is to a large extent collective, another potential policy option to support NBS is community-based insurance strategies. This presentation will explore the opportunities and constraints for public and private insurers to support NBS for wildfire risk management. It reflects on-going research in three recently funded Horizon Europe projects: (Cross sector dialogue for wildfire risk management (FireLogue), Building a safe haven for climate extremes (The HuT), and Nature for insurance and insurance for nature (NATURANCE).
VLF transmitter signal variations as detected by Graz facility prior to Croatian earthquakes
Authors: Boudjada Mohammed Y. , Biagi Pier F. , Eichelberger Hans U. , Schwingenschuh Konrad , Galopeau Patrick H.M. , Hayakawa Masashi , Solovieva Maria , Lammer Helmut , Voller Wolfgang , Besser Bruno
Published: February 2023

We report on two earthquakes (EQs) that occurred in Croatia at a distance less than 200 km from the Austrian Graz facility (15.46°E, 47.03°N). Those EQs happened on March 22 and December 29, 2020, with magnitudes of Mw5.4 and Mw6.4, respectively. The epicenters were at geographical coordinates (16.02°E, 45.87°N; 16.21°E, 45.42°N) with focuses smaller than 10 km.  Austrian Graz facility leads to detect more than fifteen VLF and LF transmitter signals (Schwingenschuh et al., 2011, Biagi et al., 2019). Transmitter ray paths cross over the EQs epicenters in particular those localised in ICV and ITS (Italy) and TBB (Turkey). We emphasize in our study on the signal fluctuations before/after the sunrise- and sunset-times, or terminator times (TTs). Transmitter amplitude signals exhibit precursor anomalies that related to EQs disturbances occurring particularly at the falling off or the growth of the ionospheric D-layer. Ground-based stations (e.g. Rozhnoi et al., 2009) and satellite observations (e.g. Zhang et al., 2020) have reported such EQs ionospheric disturbances at several occasions. References:Biagi et al., The INFREP Network: Present Situation and Recent Results, Open J. Earth. Research, 8, 2019. Rozhnoi et al., Anomalies in VLF radio signals prior the Abruzzo earthquake (M=6.3) on 6 April, 2009, Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 9, 2009. Schwingenschuh et al., The Graz seismo-electromagnetic VLF facility, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 2011. Zhang et al., Multi-experiment observations of ionospheric disturbances as precursory effects of the Indonesian Ms6.9 earthquake on August 05 2018, Remote Sens. J., 12, 2020. 
Water-group pickup ions from Europa: A window into surface ice evolution
Authors: Szalay Jamey , Allegrini Frederic , Ebert Robert , Bagenal Fran , Bolton Scott , Fatemi Shahab , McComas David , Pontoni Angele , Poppe Andrew , Sarkango Yash , Saur Joachim , Smith Todd , Valek Philip , Vance Steven , Vorburger Audrey , Wilson Robert
Published: February 2023

Water-group gas continuously escapes from Jupiter’s icy moon Europa in both charged and neutral states. The neutral species form co-orbiting populations of particles, or neutral toroidal clouds, eventually becoming ionized to be incorporated into the Jovian plasma environment. In September 2022, Juno performed a close flyby at ~350 km, an altitude less than the satellite’s radius, allowing it to make direct observations of water-group pickup-ions originating from the moon’s surface. These observations, along with more remote measurements by Juno of Europa-genic water-group pickup ions, provide critical constraints on the evolution and loss processes of Europa’s icy surface. We will present direct observations of water-group pickup-ions from Europa in the context of understanding the breakdown and evolution of Europa’s surface ice.
Role of temporal correlations in the uncertainties of the GRACE hydrological trend
Authors: Gunes Ozge , Aydin Cuneyt
Published: February 2023

This study examines hydrological trend estimations derived from GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) mascon solutions at the GSFC (Goddard Space Flight Center) in terms of the Equivalent Water Thicknesses (EWT) for the world's major river basins. The estimation of hydrological trends in mascon time series involves two steps: deterministic modeling and stochastic modeling. A deterministic model is characterized as a harmonic regression that incorporates trend and seasonal signals. For stochastic modeling, the EWT observables are typically considered to be equally weighted and uncorrelated, hence the term "white noise-only model". This interpretation, however, is misleading because typical discrete geodetic time series have temporal correlations, which generate colored noise. To explain the role of temporal correlations, we employ two different methodologies. Applying the least squares variance component estimation (LS-VCE) to time series for a combination of colored noise (i.e., flicker noise) and white noise is one of them. The second methodology uses autoregressive noise models to model the time series. Finally, the white noise-only model is compared to stochastic modeling incorporating temporal correlation. The findings show that a white noise-only model in a GRACE time series underestimates the uncertainty of the hydrological trend.
Seismic Tremor Reveals Changes in Episode Duration throughout the 2021 Geldingadalir Eruption, Iceland
Authors: Eibl Eva P. S. , Lamb Oliver , Thordarson Thorvaldur , Höskuldsson Ármann , Gudnason Egill Á. , Hersir Gylfi Páll , Ágústsdóttir Thorbjörg
Published: February 2023

The Geldingadalir eruption on the Reykjanes peninsula, Iceland, lasted from 19 March to 18 September 2021. While it continuously effused lava in March and April, it transitioned to an episodic pattern from 2 May onwards. We based our analysis on seismometer data from stations NUPH and LHR located 5.5 and 2 km SE of the active vent, respectively.From 2 May to 14 June the eruption featured minute-long episodes that were classified into 6 different periods based on the duration of the tremor, the repose time, and the seismic amplitude (Eibl et al. 2022, Bulletin of Volcanology).Here we focus on the timespan from 14 June to 18 September and define another three periods with distinct patterns: (i) For most of June the tremor was continuous and transitioned on 6 July to a period with hour long effusion followed by minute-long episodic effusion, (ii) 19 July to 3 September which featured only hour-long lava effusion episodes, and (iii) from 11 September, a 2-day-long effusion was followed by several days of minute-long episodes.We discuss these changes in the context of acoustic data, video camera data, geomorphological changes of the crater and the shallow subsurface. Overall, we find further indications for an evolving shallow magma compartment in July.
Incorporating LARES-2 SLR Data in ILRS Products for ITRF Development
Authors: Pavlis Erricos C. , Kuzmicz-Cieslak Magda , Evans Keith
Published: February 2023

Geodetic network infrastructure has evolved with increasing pace the past decade with remarkable additions of modern hardware, replacing aging, ‘80s vintage equipment throughout the globe. SLR needs however more than updating the network to deliver the accuracy required today. New and improved design “targets” must also be used that support the required “1-mm accuracy”. LAGEOS was conceived and built in the early ‘70s with a ~5 mm accuracy in mind [Pearlman et al., 2019]. This limitation forced analysts to develop approaches of data analysis to ensure that even with such data one can reach the required 1-mm accuracy [Luceri et al., 2019]. Along with the network updates a parallel effort was thus initiated to modernize the space segment as well. Initially with the design and launch of LARES in 2012 [Pavlis et al., 2015] and following that, the design of LARES-2 [Ciufolini et al., 2017, Paolozzi et al., 2019], which was successfully launched on July 13, 2022 [https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-02034-x]. The new mm-accurate target was quickly acquired first by the Italian station at Matera, only three days after launch and although very early in the mission, the data were of remarkably high quality and insignificant bias. This prompted a quick evaluation and a test inclusion of this target in the limited list of SLR targets supporting the ITRF development. With an orbit nearly identical to LAGEOS (with supplementary inclination), taking full advantage of all the appropriate models designed and applied to LAGEOS, we achieved 7-day orbital fits of 3-5 mm even without a tuned target signature correction. Using the approach described in [Kuzmicz-Cieslak, M. et al., 2022] and along with data from the other geodetic spheres, we have generated preliminary combination products for the development of the ITRF. We will present an overview of this initial analysis of LARES-2 data focusing on comparing these results to contemporaneously taken data from the standard four geodetic spheres only, (LAGEOS 1 & 2 and Etalon 1 & 2).Pearlman et al. J Geod 93, 2181–2194 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-019-01228-yLuceri et al. J Geod 93, 2357–2366 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-019-01319-wPavlis et al. EEEIC (2015), pp. 1989-1994. https://doi.org/10.1109/EEEIC.2015.7165479Paolozzi et al. J Geod 93, 2437–2446 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-019-01316-zCiufolini et al. Eur. Phys. J. Plus 132, 336 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1140/epjp/i2017-11635-1Kuzmicz-Cieslak, M. et al. (2022). https://doi.org/10.22541/essoar.167214343.32185093/v
Cross-Scale Magnetotail Convection: from Individual Properties and Impacts to Systems Understanding
Authors: Ukhorskiy Aleksandr , Millan Robyn , Merkin Viacheslav , Sorathia Kareem , Gkioulidou Matina , Sciola Anthony
Published: February 2023

Coupling of the solar wind and Earth’s magnetosphere is strongest during intervals of the southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), when magnetic reconnection at the subsolar magnetopause, with subsequent reconnection in the distant magnetotail, sets off a global convection cycle that transfers magnetic flux from the dayside into the magnetotail and then back to the dayside magnetosphere. Plasma sheet convection from the distant reconnection line to the inner magnetosphere exhibits a wide range of coupled multi-scale processes. Non-monotonic features in the plasma sheet magnetic terrain, such as minima, tailward gradients, or bumps in the northward component of the magnetic field lead to instabilities and  energy from transfer from large scale (~100 Earth radii) to mesoscale (~Earth radii) structures and earthward plasma flows. These in turn generate a wide range of kinetic scale (~100 km) phenomena which energize particles beyond 100 keV and produce bursts of particle precipitation into the atmosphere. In this paper we explore the properties and the role of mesoscale convection in the transport and acceleration of energetic electrons and ions from the magnetotail to the inner magnetosphere, from direct injections of particles into the radiation belt and the ring current, to generation of velocity instabilities that provide the pathway for the energy cascade from global to kinetic processes. We employ test-particle simulations in our Conservative Hamiltonian Integrator of Magnetospheric Particles (CHIMP) one way coupled to a high-resolution magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of plasma convection in the magnetotail. For the latter we use the Grid Agnostic MHD for Extended Research Applications (GAMERA) global magnetospheric model. We then use new modeling results and understanding of individual properties and impacts on plasmasheet dynamics to discuss Heliophysics Systems Observatory capabilities that would enable a system-wide view of cross-scale convection in Earth’s magnetotail. 
Simulation of deposition nucleation using ice nucleation parametrizations and comparison of model results to measured cirrus cloud properties
Authors: Juurikkala Kasper , Laaksonen Ari , Welti André
Published: February 2023

Ice nucleation in the upper troposphere occurs either homogeneously or heterogeneously. For heterogeneous nucleation, mineral dust is known as an efficient ice nucleating particle (INP) or an aerosol that has the ability to nucleate ice. The global abundance of these mineral particles is poorly understood and thus it often limits accurate representation in model studies. The aim of this work is to simulate ice nucleation with deposition nucleation and compare the results to in-situ measurements.The simulations are run with large-eddy model UCLALES-SALSA by applying multiple existing deposition nucleation parametrizations for mineral dust. These parametrizations are either based on laboratory measurements or classical nucleation theory. For the simulation setup, ECMWF reanalysis and campaign data from NASA MACPEX are used to create suitable conditions for in-situ cirrus formation. The simulations are based on the 16th of April 2011 science flight which was flown into a synoptic cirrus that formed over Northern Mexico to the Gulf of Mexico.The simulated ice with all used parametrizations on average produced concentrations within two orders of magnitude of what was measured with onboard instruments. The main limiting factor for ice number concentration in the simulations is mineral dust concentration since every ice crystal formed only on mineral dust particles. The ice number concentration in measurements exceeded the mineral dust concentration which indicates that other INPs or freezing mechanisms might be involved in this scenario.Further simulations are required to grasp a better understanding of the role of mineral dust in the cirrus cloud formation. AcknowledgementsThis work was supported by the Academy of Finland Flagship ACCC (grant no. 337552) andMEDICEN project (grant no. 345125).
East Asian summer precipitation in AWI-CM3: Comparison with observations and CMIP6 models
Authors: Shi Jian , Stepanek Christian , Sein Dmitry , Streffing Jan , Lohamnn Gerrit
Published: February 2023

Owing to the complicated spatial-temporal characteristics of East Asian precipitation (EAP), climate models have limited skills in simulating the modern Asian climate. This consequently leads to large uncertainties in simulations of the past EAP variation and future projections. Here, we explore the performance of the newly developed Alfred Wegener Institute Climate Model, version 3 (AWI-CM3) in simulating the climatological summer EAP. To test whether the model’s skill depends on its atmosphere resolution, we design two AWI-CM3 simulations with different horizontal resolutions. The result shows that both simulations have acceptable performance in simulating the summer mean EAP, generally better than the majority of individual models participating in the Climate Modelling Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). However, for the monthly EAP from June to August, AWI-CM3 exhibits a decayed skill, which is due to the sub-seasonal movement of the western Pacific subtropical high bias. The higher resolution AWI-CM3 simulation shows an overall improvement relative to the one performed at a relatively lower resolution in all aspects taken into account regarding the EAP. We conclude that AWI-CM3 is a suitable tool for exploring the EAP for the observational period. Having verified the model’s skill for modern climate, we suggest employing the AWI-CM3, especially with high atmosphere resolution, also for applications in paleoclimate studies and future projections.
Unravelling the sources of moisture for precipitation events in a flood-prone Indian basin
Authors: Choudhary Rajat , Dhanya Chandrika Thulaseedharan , Gosain Ashvani Kumar
Published: February 2023

Global warming has resulted in frequent occurrences of hydrological extremes, especially floods, across the globe. Flooding may lead to significant loss of life and economic damage. The increase in these flood events is due to the short intense rainfall events. Finding the geographical sources of the moisture that causes these short intense rainfall events is an important step toward predicting extreme events. The present research intends to investigate moisture sources for precipitation events over the flood-prone Indian Basin. Using the lagrangian moisture diagnostic, the research will look at moisture sources below the boundary layer as well as variations above the boundary layer from 1980 to 2018 during the Indian Summer Monsoon season. The study will also look at how the contribution from various sources varies over the course of the Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall season. This work will enhance our understanding of the hydrological cycle and assist with a variety of related issues, including water resource planning, weather forecasting, land and water management, and more.
A Modern Approach to a Stability-Based Definition of the Tropopause
Authors: Tinney Emily , Homeyer Cameron , Elizalde Lexy , Hurst Dale , Thompson Anne , Stauffer Ryan , Vömel Holger , Selkirk Henry
Published: February 2023

Definition of the tropopause has remained a focus of atmospheric science since its discovery near the beginning of the twentieth century. An accurate identification of the tropopause is a vital component to upper troposphere and lower stratosphere research, especially for studies that seek to assess and quantify the two-way exchange of air across the tropopause, which in turn impacts our understanding and prediction of Earth’s radiation budget and climate. Few universal definitions (those that can be reliably applied globally and to both common observations and numerical model output) exist and many definitions with unique limitations have been developed over the years. The most commonly used universal definition of the tropopause is the temperature lapse-rate definition established by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) in 1957 (the LRT). Despite its widespread use, there are recurrent situations where the LRT definition fails to reliably identify the tropopause. Motivated by increased availability of coincident observations of stability and composition, we reexamine the relationship between stability and composition change in the tropopause transition layer and identify areas for improvement in a stability-based definition of the tropopause. Six locations with long-term (up to 40+ years) balloon observations of temperature, ozone, and water vapor were selected for analysis to offer a variety of environments, including tropical, subtropical, extratropical, and polar environments. Data from these sites are then used to identify covariability between several metrics of atmospheric stability and composition. We show that the vertical gradient of potential temperature is a superior stability metric to identify the greatest composition change in the tropopause transition layer, which we use to propose a new universally applicable potential temperature gradient tropopause (PTGT) definition. A comparison of the PTGT and LRT applied to both observations and reanalysis output will be shown. Overall, our results reveal that the PTGT largely agrees with the LRT, but more reliably identifies tropopause-level composition change when the two definitions differ greatly.
Resilience-oriented Strategies for Planning and Design of Road Infrastructures in Considering Cascading Effects on Emergency Medical Service
Authors: Yang Zhuyu , Clemente Maria Fabrizia , Brarroca Bruno
Published: February 2023

Road Infrastructures (RIs) support a wide variety of activities ranging in modern societies and play a critical role in economic competitiveness and quality of life. However, RIs are vulnerable to congestion, accidents, weather conditions, special events, and natural disasters. Therefore, the concept of “resilience”, which means the ability of a system exposed to hazards to absorb change and disturbance, and maintain and improve its state, gain more and more popularity in the field of RIs management. Moreover, many studies investigate the issue of cascading effects of infrastructure disruption, which could cause functional disruptions to other urban components.The relationship between RIs and the Emergency Medical Services (EMSs) is evident; even though modern emergency medical transports can partly rely on helicopters, their operation and implementation are still largely dependent on RIs. The disruption of road transport is highly probable to delay ambulances and prevent patients from receiving timely treatment. Thus, a resilience-oriented strategy for RIs should not only make the road infrastructure able to respond to hazards but should also avoid the cascading effects of RIs dysfunction on medical services.A resilient infrastructure should have different aspects of capabilities and involve actions to improve its capabilities. The management strategies for RIs, facing potential risks, require preparedness for both immediate and medium-long-term actions. This study, taking Nantes city with possible flood hazards as an example, firstly aims at assessing the impacts of RIs interruption on Nantes EMS facing different levels of flooding (low, medium, strong, and very strong). The studied impacts focus on the delay of ambulances and the reduction of the survival rate of patients with heart attacks.Furthermore, this study, presents a resilience-oriented strategy for Nantes RIs management, including potential actions such as installations of temporary dykes or footbridges, the elevation of RIs, the use of sustainable materials, planting soil, and structural growing medium for green space and permeable pavement to implement groundwater drainage.
Development of a Coupled Human And Natural Systems (CHANS) Modelling Approach for flood risk assessment and management
Authors: Qin Haoyang , Liang Qiuhua
Published: February 2023

Keywords: CHANS modelling, inundation model, agent-based model, risk assessment, flood risk managementFlooding is the most wide-spreading natural hazard threatening people’s lives and properties worldwide. In recent years, rapid urbanisation and more frequent weather extremes have led to increased risk of flooding, evidenced by the costly summer floods occurred in Europe and China in July 2021 and, most recently, the deadly event affecting most areas across Pakistan. Effective flood risk management is essentially needed to protect people’s lives and properties.Human activities may significantly influence flooding processes and the subsequent risk. However, few flood risk assessment and management practices directly consider human activities and social dynamics. This study aims to develop a Coupled Human And Natural System (CHANS) model to simulate the human-nature interacting processes during a flood event, which is subsequently applied to assess flood impact and evaluate the effectiveness of different disaster management options. The CHANS modelling framework is implemented by coupling the in-house High-Performance Integrated hydrodynamic Modelling System (HiPIMS) and an agent-based model built on the Flexible Large-scale Agent Modelling Environment of the Graphics Processing Unit (FLAMEGPU). The agent-based model simulates the complex behaviours of individuals and households reacting to the dynamic flooding process predicted by HiPIMS. The new CHANS modelling framework is tested by simulating the household damage caused by the 2015 Desmond flood in the 2500 km2 Eden Catchment in England, and the simulation results are consistent with the data released in government reports. The model is further applied to explore the role of early warning and sandbagging in mitigating flood impacts. The validated CHANS flood risk modelling and assessment framework is further applied to the City of Can Tho in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta to assess compound flood risk taking into account dynamic household vulnerability and explore different risk mitigation measures.
Interactive coupling of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global ocean
Authors: Kreuzer Moritz , Huiskamp Willem , Albrecht Torsten , Petri Stefan , Reese Ronja , Feulner Georg , Winkelmann Ricarda
Published: February 2023

Increased sub-shelf melting and ice discharge from the Antarctic Ice sheet has both regional and global impacts on the ocean and the overall climate system. Additional meltwater, for example, can reduce the formation of Antarctic Bottom Water, potentially affecting the global thermohaline circulation. Similarly, increased input of fresh and cold water around the Antarctic margin can lead to a stronger stratification of coastal waters, and a potential increase in sea-ice formation, trapping warmer water masses below the surface, which in turn can lead to increased basal melting of the ice shelves.So far these processes have mainly been analysed in simple unidirectional cause-and-effect experiments, possibly neglecting important interactions and feedbacks. To study the long-term and global effects of these interactions, we have developed a bidirectional offline coupled ice-ocean model framework. It consists of the global ocean and sea-ice model MOM5/SIS and an Antarctic instance of the Parallel Ice Sheet Model PISM, with the ice-shelf cavity module PICO representing the ice-ocean boundary layer physics. With this setup we are analysing the aforementioned interactions and feedbacks between the Antarctic Ice Sheet and the global ocean system on multi-millenial time scales.
Comparison of GIX, SIDX and ROTI ionospheric indices and their relationships with GNSS positioning results
Authors: Nykiel Grzegorz , Cahuasquí Juan Andrés , Hoque Mainul , Jakowski Norbert
Published: February 2023

Ionospheric disturbances can negatively impact the accuracy, continuity, availability, and integrity of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) based services. Therefore, reliable description and characterization of these disturbances are essential to guarantee an adequate level of safety for GNSS-based systems, susceptible to strong spatial gradients and rapid changes in electron density along the receiver-satellite path (slant total electron content, STEC).This study aims to compare various indices that describe the current condition and intensity of ionospheric disturbances using GNSS observations from approximately 350 reference stations in Europe. The indices studied include the Gradient Ionospheric Index (GIX), the Sudden Ionospheric Disturbance Index (SIDX), and the Rate Of Tec Index (ROTI). The study focuses on selected geomagnetic storms and compares the results for different latitude zones (30-45°N, 45-60°N, and 60-75°N). The results show that the behaviors of the investigated indices differ in each case and are strongly dependent on the ionospheric storm propagation mechanism and associated with actual space weather and geo-physical conditions. The study also examines the relationships between the analyzed indices and GNSS positioning results using absolute and differential approaches and code pseudorange and carrier phase-based results. In addition, a comparison with vertical protection error (VPE) and vertical protection level (VPL) for selected EGNOS Ranging and Integrity Monitoring Stations is included.
Using a surface water hydrodynamic model to understand how spatial variability in ocean surge affects groundwater salinization in Delaware Inland Bays
Authors: Housego Rachel , Paldor Anner , Frederiks Ryan , Shi Fengyan , Michael Holly
Published: February 2023

Coastal communities around the world face an increasing risk from surge-driven inundation because of rising sea levels and intensifying storm conditions. During storm surges, inland propagation of ocean water drives infiltration of saltwater into the fresh groundwater, jeopardizing coastal water resources. The magnitude, shape, and duration of these ocean surges vary both between storm events and spatially during a given storm, resulting from differences in bathymetry, coastline shape, and the path and characteristics of the storm. Our study aims to understand how these temporal and spatial variabilities in ocean surge affect groundwater salinization and recovery in the Delaware (DE) Inland Bays. The DE Inland Bays are composed of two adjoining, shallow bays in Eastern Delaware connected to the Atlantic Ocean via a single inlet. The geometry of the bays results in complex surface water hydrodynamics. To study the effect of spatial variability in surge levels we used  the output from a surface water hydrodynamic model, NearCOM-TVD, simulated for past storm surge events, as boundary conditions for 2D Hydrogeosphere simulations of groundwater flow and salt transport. During Hurricane Sandy (2012), the largest surge event in the past decade, there was a 0.7 m range in the maximum surge height within the bays. Corresponding groundwater simulations showed that for this range, there was 33% more surge-induced aquifer salinization for the highest surge level within the bays relative to the lowest. This elevated salt mass persisted over the ten year recovery period. Results from Hurricane Sandy will be compared with more moderate storm surge events. The resulting salinized volumes and recovery times from all the storm simulations were used to develop a salinization vulnerability metric for the Delaware Inland Bays. The goal of these simulations is to identify the surge conditions that present the greatest salinization risk and the locations in the Inland Bays that have the highest salinization vulnerability, as well as to improve understanding of the feedbacks between ocean and groundwater hydrodynamics.
Long term trends in the Bologna daily rainfall time series (1813-2020)
Authors: Montanari Nicolò
Published: February 2023

The rainfall time series in Bologna is one of the longest daily precipitation records available.Figure 1 presents the progress along time of cumulative annual rainfall during the observation period. Dating back to 1813 with no missing values, the time series spans over 208 years. As such, it offers a valuable opportunity to evaluate long term trends of rainfall statistics, thus offering information on past and recent precipitation changes.In detail, we focus on the progress along time of annual and monthly precipitation as well as the annual and monthly maxima of daily precipitation, by applying linear regression. We also present an overview of historical long term droughts and estimate their frequency of occurrence by applying run theory. We also compare drought statistics of historical data with those of future climate scenarios recently presented by the literature.The results highlight that the drought frequency is decreased in the past 50 years, while there is evidence of decreasing variability of annual rainfall during time, with no evident trend.
Characterization of Thunderstorm Cells Producing Observable Terrestrial Gamma Ray Flashes
Authors: Husbjerg Lasse , Neubert Torsten , Chanrion Olivier , Marisaldi Martino , Stendel Martin , Kaas Eigil , Østgaard Nikolai , Reglero Victor
Published: February 2023

We present the largest catalogue compiled to date of TGFs and associated lightning activity, geostationary satellite cloud images and ERA5 reanalysis data. The TGFs are observed from AGILE, ASIM, FERMI and RHESSI, and the lightning activity by the WWLLN and GLD360 networks. The 1582 TGF events identified are analysed and contextualized relative to lightning flashes. In our analysis, we consider the proportion of TGFs and lightning coming from overshooting tops, and the dependencies on Cloud Top Temperature (CTT) and the Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE). We find that TGFs come from primarily higher cloud tops than lightning flashes, consistent with previous studies. We also find that CAPE is similar for TGF and lightning-producing cells, and that the proportion of TGF and lightning-producing cells in the overshooting phase are similar. We analyse the regional and seasonal differences between TGFs and lightning and see that regional meteorological effects dominate.
Integrating manure management with winter rye for sustainable intensification of no-till corn silage systems for sequestering soil carbon.
Authors: Burkett Gabriella , Adeyemi Oladapo , Kula Casey , Sadghpour Amir
Published: February 2023

Dairy producers often apply manure to meet the nitrogen (N) needs of a corn (Zea mays L.) crop (N-based management). This can increase soil carbon (C) but leads to overapplication of phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) which could result in increased soil test P (STP) and K (STK) over time. One stategy used in manure management to achieve N requirement of a corn crop while reducing STP and STK buildup and increasing soil C is to move from a N‐based applications of manure to a P‐based (crop‐removal) management with integrating winter cereal rye (Secale cereale L.; WCR) as double crop with corn silage and supplementing N need with inorganic fertilizer. A four-year trial was initiated in Breese, IL in 2019. The experimental design was a randomized complete block design with four replicates. Treatments were (1) corn silage with liquid UAN fertilizer; (2) P-based manure with no WRC; (3) N-based manure (liberal N credit) with no WCR; (4) N-based manure (conservative N credit) with no WCR; (5) P-based manure with WRC; (6) N-based manure (liberal N credit) with WCR; (7) N-based manure (conservative N credit) with WCR. We measured corn and rye yield, the N and P concentrations in the biomass, N and P removal and balances for the system, and soil test P. We also evaluated phospholipid fatty acids (PLFA), soil aggregate size distribution and stability, soil bulk density, soil β-glucosidase (BG) enzyme, soil organic C and labile C (POXC) over a 90 cm soil profile. Our results indicated that integrating WCR with P-based manure rates maintains STP over time. High rate of manure (conservative N credit) and WCR resulted in increased soil C which was supported by higher fungi:bacteria ratio in the soil.
Lower plate retreat and opening of an Andean backarc basin
Authors: Kammer Andreas
Published: February 2023

The northern segment of the Andean Mountain System comprises at its western border a Cretaceous plateau-like province intruded by island arc sequences, which bear stratigraphic and geochemical affinities to the Caribbean Large Igneous Province. For these combined provinces a Pacific-derived origin has been postulated, supposing the accretion and partial subduction of an allochthonous terrane. This scenario may be challenged for the Andean part, supposing the opening of a backarc basin floored by oceanic crust, when integrating craton-related age spectra of zircon xenocrysts retrieved from subvolcanic rocks, the stratigraphic relations between pre-magmatic siliciclastic and overlying magmatic-volcanic arc sequences and the evidence of substantial extensional tectonics. In this view, an accelerated retreat of the lower plate, as expected to occur at the free end of a subduction system, would have prompted the opening of a wedge-like space comparable to the Lau basin of the western Pacific. In this contribution we present structural evidence for crustal deformations owing to plate convergence and deformations supposedly imposed by a N-S directed asthenospheric backflow on the inboard of the subducting slab.
Investigating biotic uptake of riverine organic nitrogen using a compound-specific stable-isotope probing approach.
Authors: Lloyd Charlotte , Johnes Penny , Maberley Stephen , Yates Christopher , Mena Rivera Leonardo , Reay Michaela , Brailsford Francesca , Glanville Helen , Clarke Mike , Evershed Richard , Jones Davey
Published: February 2023

The flux of nutrients into rivers is rising due largely to inputs from the expansion and intensification of agriculture along with inputs from treatment of human waste. This trend is set to continue due to changing climate and increasing population while we attempt to balance food security and environmental impact. While water quality legislation focuses on inorganic nutrients due to their bioavailability, the proportion of the total nitrogen (N) flux, which is organic in its molecular composition is important in many riverine systems. Despite this, the impact of organic N on ecosystem function is currently poorly understood. Here we address part of this knowledge gap using compound-specific stable isotope probing to investigate the extent to which dissolved organic matter substrates are bioavailable to stream biota and if they can be directly assimilated.Stable isotope probing was used to identify and quantify the routes of biotic uptake of organic N and carbon (C) into stream biota. Here, we added 15N labelled (nitrate, ammonium, glucosamine, sheep urine) and doubly labelled (15N/13C) substrates (glutamic acid, urea, glycine) to in-stream mesocosms containing water and epilithon, and bryophyte communities from the River Conwy North Wales, UK. Samples of epilithon and bryophyte were removed from the incubations after 2, 6, 12, 24 and 48 h and rates of assimilation of the labelled substrate were determined using bulk 15N/13C, followed by compound-specific 15N/13C analysis of extracted amino acids. This method allowed us to demonstrate the assimilation of labelled organic substrates into newly biosynthesised proteinaceous amino acids and to determine if they were utilised as intact organic molecules.The findings showed that the majority of the organic N substrates tested were directly bioavailable for utilisation as intact molecules by the stream biota, except for urea where transformation occurred before uptake. The data also showed that there were differences in the rates of assimilation both between the organic substrates added and between the epilithon and bryophyte communities. This work illustrates the analytical power of using doubly labelled 13C, 15N compounds in a stable isotope probing experiment, as the ability to trace the utilisation of both the N and C simultaneously had provided significant new insights in the biotic assimilation of organic-N substrates. Our findings confirm the importance of organic nutrients in ecosystem function and the need for changes to water quality legislation to reflect this.
Co-seismic Deformation and Source Parameters of the Mw6.0 Düzce Earthquake by InSAR
Authors: Kaya-Eken Tülay , Zoroğlu Çağkan Serhun , Havazlı Emre , Özener Haluk
Published: February 2023

23 November, 2022 Mw 6.0 Düzce Earthquake occurred in the west of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) representing a nascent transform fault between the Eurasian Plate and Anatolian Plate. Well-documented seismic sequence along this fault zone started in the east with the 1939 M7.9 Erzincan Earthquake and migrated westward with M>7 earthquakes. Following 1999 Mw7.4 Izmit and Mw7.2 Düzce failures, the next major earthquake was expected to be on the branch of the NAFZ in the Sea of ​​Marmara. However, the 2022 Düzce Earthquake activated already broken Karadere segment during the 1999 Izmit earthquake but release the accumulated strain energy at the north-eastern end of this segment. In this study, we aimed to measure co-seismic surface deformation caused by the 2022 Düzce rupture and determine the source parameters by combining geodetic and geophysical measurements. The co-seismic deformation is analyzed by using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) technique performed on the Sentinel-1 data. The pre- and post-earthquake ascending and descending SAR images were processed using the TopsApp module of the InSAR Scientific Computing Environment (ISCE) software to obtain interferograms of the co-seismic deformation. Our preliminary results show ~30 mm surface deformation. Our preliminary inversion, based on Okada elastic dislocation modeling, resulted in a fault geometry with ~267, 68 and -172 for strike, dip, and rake angles, respectively. This identifies a dominant right-lateral strike slip motion and is fairly compatible with both surface morphological properties of this segment as well as with initial seismology data-based mechanism solutions of various national/international monitoring centers (e.g. KOERI, GEOFON).
Toward a Smart Tool for Irrigation Systems management Using remote sensing
Authors: Taia Halima , Wozniak Edyta , Bernoussi Abdes Samed , Amharref Mina
Published: February 2023

In agriculture, water and fertilizer are two limiting elements of plant growth. Indeed, the lack or the excess of one of them disturbs the yields in terms of quality and quantity. Optimal irrigation/fertilization and precisely dosed nutrient supply allow fast growing plants to reach their full potential, offering much larger and better quality yields. The use of remote sensing through satellites images becomes necessary in the case of a large area. To manage properly the use of water and fertilizers in a region it is necessary to know the spatial distribution of crops. So first, we have to discriminate crops. Next the control of doses and plant growth rate must be performed.In this paper we present a tool for smart management of the water irrigation and fertilizer using remote sensing data and mathematical algorithms by considering crops as a dynamical system.We give some mathematical algorithms to discriminate dynamical systems (crops) and after we consider the problem of detection of the impact of irrigation and fertilization on the crop through spectral signatures. For this, we consider the problem of detecting the effects of nitrogen and irrigation on the mint  by spectroscopy and we compare the obtained results with other obtained measures for rosemary  without fertilizer. For our case study, we choose potted mint as a plant that grows very fast and we apply our spectral measurement protocol to answer the following problem: Can we detect the effect of water and nitrogen by observing the growth of a given crop using the spectrometer? The results will be used for our tool to manage irrigation and fertilizer.Keywords: irrigation, fertilizer, crop growth, remote sensing, dynamical systemsThis work is the result of a research project: Alkhawarizmi/2020/11: Tool for intelligent management of irrigation water and forest heritage, funded by MESRSFC, CNRST and ADD, Morocco