Computational Correlational Studies of Tropical Cyclone Energetic with Dynamical Fluid Motions and Physical Features of Meso-Scale Convective Systems to Develop Tropical Cyclone Numerical Forecasting Models TC- NFM
Authors:   Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) & Environment and Peace Foundation, Formerly, Univ of Wisconsin & Univ of Illinois, USA, Goswami Virendra 
Published: February 2025

The present Tropical Cyclones/Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast (TCFM/HWRF) system can forecast the inner core
structure of the Tropical Cyclones/Hurricanes out to 5 days. Hence, efforts are to be made to test, evaluate, and improve predictions of Hurricane’s track(motion), intensity, speed, and inner core Structure, beyond 5 days ,through the study of Hurricane
energetic in correlation with dynamical fluid motions and physical features (e.g. radiative transfer, chemistry, cloud processes),
of meso-scale NH-SH Convective systems in order to develop a unique Tropical Cyclone/Hurricane Forecast Models (TCFM/
HFM), acting as an Operational real-time forecast guidance for all global tropical cyclones/hurricanes across the Atlantic, Asia
Pacific, North Indian Ocean and Southern Hemisphere ocean basins.
The key to this new prediction system (TCFM/HFM) would be the development of a very fine (1deg–1deg) grid nests moving with
individual storms within the global model, having a coupling capability for these nests in space & time mode. (TCFM/HFM)
would be coupled to Atlantic, and North Indian Ocean basins Storms, so that its grid filter gets updated whenever, there are active
cyclonic storms in these basins.
Next, the high-resolution Satellite imageries of the two Super Cyclonic Storms (SCS) over the Atlantic& North Indian Oceanic
basins occurred during May-October 2020 would be examined with emphasis on the large scale kinematic and thermodynamic
behavior of these two SCS named Laura’(Atlantic,26Aug’20,240Kmph,937hPa) Amphan’(BOB,17May’20,240Kmph,920hPa) &
other selected mesoscale Convective Systems,
e.g. intense Cloud Clusters Thunderstorms, Depression, by making use of Aircraft, Doppler Weather Radar and conventional data
over the selected domain in order to study mathematical and computational aspects of weather and climate through spatial structure of Cloud field incorporating the Tropical Cyclones/Hurricane Weather Research Forecast Models (HWRF).
Based on Suchman, Cloud Cluster studies, wherein, the two plausible Models of Monsoon Depression have been postulated in
terms of Cluster Coalescence Theory and Giant Cluster Theory along with technique described for inferring vertical mass circulations within and around the monsoon depression in tropical regions by making use of satellite imageries, be employed to study the
said two SCS over Atlantic & North Indian oceanic basins during the Storm-Cycle (May-Oct)’20 to develop (TCFM/HFM) [1,2].
Next, the Thermodynamic structure of these Hurricanes be studied by computation of deep convective mass transport inside the
Cloud Cluster by means of Cloud Tracer Analysis (WINDCO measurements using McIDAS. The Tele-connection of SH features
e.g. Depressions, Cyclonic Storms, Equatorial Trough & movement of ITCZ with the identical features of NH, governing the
storms activity over the region would also be studied.