bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Research Policy and Review 9. A Space for Place (or a Place for Space) in British Psephology: A Review of Recent Writings with Especial Reference to the General Election of 1983
Authors: Johnston R J
Published: October 2006

In most psephological writings in Britain only scant regard is paid to the role of place as a context in which political attitudes are learned and voting decisions are made. As a result, it is implied that Britain has a spatially uniform political culture, one that is not in line with the ‘facts’. In this review article the development of that attitude is traced and linked to the reliance on survey data. Works on the 1983 General Election are reviewed to show how the influence of place is far from fully integrated with most explanatory accounts. It is necessary, it is argued, for British psephologists to become aware of recent developments in social theory and the attempts to produce a holistic social science in which place has a central position.
The Product-Cycle Model: A Critique
Authors: Taylor M
Published: October 2006

The product-cycle model is an important explanatory device that has been used extensively in geography. However, it is also a model with significant limiting assumptions that have not been adequately taken into account when it has been used. In this paper the problems and limitations imposed on the model by the assumptions it contains are outlined. Six broad aspects of the model are addressed: the ambiguity of the enterprise context implied in the model; its treatment of the processes of invention and innovation; its simplification of the nature of products; assumptions about scale, labour, and relocation to less developed countries; location-specific advantages; and the relationship of the model to other cycles operating within the business environment. The limitations of the product-cycle model, as it is used in geography, are attributed to the inadequate conceptualisation of the firm, that still persists in the discipline.
A Framework for the Nonstatistical Assessment of Behaviorally Based Policy Models
Authors: Tonn B E
Published: October 2006

In this paper a nonstatistical framework for assessing behaviorally based policy models is presented. Such a framework is needed because statistical criteria do not explicitly indicate how well various aspects of a disaggregated model fit together. The framework assumes models have five elements: behavior specificity, motivation or goal specificity, decision-heuristic specificity, belief specificity, and exogenous variable specificity. After the elements have been defined, three models are assessed using the framework. It is found that the framework works well across diverse models but requires considerable refinement and empirical verification.
Research Policy and Review 10. Frameworks for Studying Energy and the Environment
Authors: Hope C W , Owens S
Published: October 2006

The economic framework is often very useful in the analysis of energy – environment problems, but it remains inadequate in a number of significant ways. After a brief review of basic theoretical principles, particularly as applied in cost – benefit analysis, some of the limitations of the economic approach are discussed with reference to selected examples in the energy – environment field. The merits of several alternative approaches to problem analysis and policy formulation are also briefly considered.
Privatisation of Housing and the Impact of the Conservative Government's Initiatives on Low-Cost Homeownership and Private Renting between 1979 and 1984 in England and Wales: 3. Impact and Evaluation of Low-Cost Homeownership Policy
Authors: Crook A D H
Published: October 2006

This is the third in a series of four papers describing and evaluating the British Government's policies of privatising housing. In this paper the research on the short-run impact of the low-cost homeownership programme is examined, by looking at the right to buy, shared ownership, improvement for sale, and homesteading, and at starter homes and licence schemes. The purchasers who have benefited from the programme are identified and the reasons for some of the failures of the policy to reach priority groups and areas of need are examined. An evaluation of the programme is made under three headings: the extent to which new investment is generated, the extent to which benefits are restricted to groups in need, and the long-term consequences of expanding homeownership amongst low-income groups. It is concluded that privatisation cannot be achieved without continued state support and regulation.
An Analysis of Migratory Systems: 1. Theory
Authors: Kanaroglou P , Liaw K-L , Papageorgiou Y Y
Published: October 2006

The task of combining evolutionary migration models with stochastic utility theory is undertaken in a series of three interrelated papers. The present, first, paper deals with the evolution of migratory systems and its dynamics are drawn mainly from work by Haag and Weidlich. A migratory system is defined and then the foundations upon which the evolution of such a system is based are described, including an approximation due to Kurtz which allows the most probable state of the evolutionary model to be represented as a dynamical system. This paper closes with a discussion of disequilibrium, which is central in this series. Disequilibrium is related to the concept of a steady state, the existence of which is established for nonlinear migratory systems of the type discussed here.
Establishment Migration: An Analytical Framework
Authors: Twomey J
Published: October 2006

Despite significant advances in spatial interaction methodology and modelling, the analysis of establishment migration has exhibited only limited progress. In particular, such analysis has concentrated on approximating movement by a continuous probability process. The purpose of this paper is twofold: first, to illustrate the fact that establishment relocation is, and can be, more appropriately modelled as a discrete distribution process; second, to examine the rationale and performance of a standard unconstrained gravity model applied to industrial migration data in the United Kingdom. Evidence suggests that both the discrete probability process and the gravity model framework provide a foundation for the continued empirical investigation of establishment migration patterns.
Inside the Rust Belt: An Analysis of the Decline of the West Midlands Economy. 2: Corporate Strategies and Economic Change
Authors: Flynn N , Taylor A
Published: October 2006

The economy of the West Midlands Region of England is dominated by a small number of large manufacturing companies. The analysis of the economy in this paper focuses on the corporate strategies of the twenty-six largest manufacturing companies in the region. It is shown that there has been a transformation of the companies from producers of low value-added commodity-type products in the 1960s, is also shown to more diversified companies competing in higher value-added sectors. It also shows that these major companies have shifted their orientation from the old Empire markets towards Europe and North America.

The companies have reduced their production costs by rationalising their manufacturing processes, and in some cases by establishing manufacturing plants in other countries. However, the main motive for shifting production from the United Kingdom has been to produce closer to the final markets, rather than cost reduction.

The main method which companies have used to become more diversified has been acquisitions. Companies have bought all or parts of companies which were already established in the sectors into which they wanted to move. Since such companies were rarely located within the region, the regional impact of these changes has been largely negative: the plants which were engaged in the declining sectors have been in the West Midlands, whereas the growth sectors have been located elsewhere, either in other regions of the United Kingdom or abroad.

The conclusion is that the West Midlands manufacturing companies have responded to the changing world economic conditions and the recent recession in a positive way, but that their reactions have produced a permanent reduction in manufacturing employment in the region. Even a strong national recovery from recession will not produce a significant increase in local employment in these companies.
Privatisation of Housing and the Impact of the Conservative Government's Initiatives on Low-Cost Homeownership and Private Renting between 1979 and 1984 in England and Wales: 4. Private Renting
Authors: Crook A D H
Published: October 2006

This is the final paper in a series of four which describe and evaluate the British Government's policies of privatising housing. In this paper the policies designed to increase the supply of housing for private renting are examined. The paper has four sections. The first is an examination of the private rented market in the context of Government policy, with emphasis on the way policies about private renting have not been related to the tax and subsidy policies in respect of other tenures. In the second the specific initiatives taken by the Government to stimulate investment are examined. The evidence about the impact which these initiatives have had is looked at in part 3. The fourth part is an examination of why the initiatives have had relatively little impact and it is concluded that it is because they are only marginal solutions to the fundamental economic difficulties faced both by landlords and by tenants.
An Analysis of Migratory Systems: 2. Operational Framework
Authors: Kanaroglou P , Liaw K-L , Papageorgiou Y Y
Published: October 2006

This is the second in a series of three interrelated papers which aim to combine evolutionary migration models with stochastic utility theory. The first paper dealt with migratory dynamics. Here the details are given of a choice model, established by McFadden, which can be used in conjunction with migratory dynamics thus providing an explicit link between the macroproperties of the population system and human behaviour. First, the structure of transition probabilities is derived under a two-level decision to migrate. An argument is then given about the empirical form of these probabilities, and the discussion closes with a method which can be used for their maximum likelihood estimation.
The Costs of Urbanization: A Case Study of Pakistan
Authors: Qutub S A , Richardson H W
Published: October 2006

A methodology is developed for estimating the aggregate costs of urbanization in Pakistan for 1983–2003. These costs are then compared with the future investment resource pool, and are found to be larger than the total pool. Alternative policy solutions to alleviate the problem are explored. Although some capital-saving strategies (such as major public works programs in rural areas and labor-intensive employment policies) would be helpful, it will be impossible to avoid a substantial rise in the proportion of the urban population without services from about one quarter to about one half of the total. The paper concludes with suggestions for refining the methodology in future studies.
Aggregation in Decisionmaking: A Unifying Approach
Authors: Reggiani A , Stefani S
Published: October 2006

The aim of this paper is to describe a new approach in decisionmaking under uncertainty related to discrete choice models (DCM) and stochastic dominance (SD). A common basic structure is recognized for DCM and SD and both are embedded in the new approach.
Research Policy and Review 11. New Tools for a Planner's Toolkit
Authors: Krieger M H
Published: October 2006

After a flirtation with pure science and the liberal arts, professional education in all fields is once again tool-and-craft oriented. Still, the main tools come from high-status science and humanities. But the sciences now advocate design, holism, purpose, choice, emergentism, anima, history, and discontinuity; whereas the humanities stress ambiguity, incommensurability, impurity, and perversion. What is in prospect is a richer, less reductionistic, view of human nature, social organization, and history. And this in turn will alter the culture and practice of planning and design.
Statistical Approaches to Structural Change in Regional Interindustry Models
Authors: Huallacháin B Ó
Published: October 2006

The conventional approach to assessing structural change in regional input – output tables is to measure the impact of coefficient change on the estimation of outputs and multipliers. The methods developed and tested in this paper focus exclusively on the coefficients. Univariate and multivariate statistical analyses can be used to identify and measure various types of changes ranging from coefficient instability to changes in interindustry relationships as a system. A distinction is made between structural changes in input relationships and those in output relationships. The methods are tested by using Washington State data for the years 1963 and 1967. The results are compared with previous analyses of change in these data.
Towards a Spatial Deconcentration of Entrepreneurial Control? Some Empirical Evidence for the Austrian Regions, 1973–1981
Authors: Maier G , Tödtling F
Published: October 2006

In previous decades, industrial production and its spatial structure were strongly shaped by Fordist principles; mass production, fragmentation and standardization of production processes, and the emergence of large firms led to a spatial dispersal of production and a concentration of headquarters and control. But in the 1970s and 1980s this model of the organization of production seems to be losing importance in industrial countries. Standardized mass production was increasingly competed for by newly industrializing countries, and flexible production technology lowered the importance of scale economies. These changing conditions forced firms to reorganize their production and decision structures. Both an increasing centralization of enterprises (based on the new automation and information technologies— ‘neo-Fordism’) and a decentralization of production (towards small-scale firms) seem possible. It is to be expected that these changes are related to changes in the spatial division of labor and in the organizational characteristics of plants.

An empirical analysis of Austria revealed marked changes in the organizational status of plants and in the spatial pattern of control in the period from 1973 to 1981. Externally controlled employment decreased in those areas which had the highest shares in 1973, namely, the old industrial areas and the peripheral rural areas. Major employment increases of externally controlled plants on the other hand occured in areas with a low degree of external control in 1973, namely, the agglomerations and tourist areas. Concerning the spatial pattern of control, there was a clear tendency to decentralization due mainly to a decline in the importance of Vienna as a headquarters location.
Elasticities of Demand for Recreation Site and for Recreation Experience
Authors: Price C , Christensen J B , Humphreys S K
Published: October 2006

Substitution makes demand for recreation sites more elastic than that for recreation experiences. Assessment of site elasticity by direct and Clawson methods yielded elastic estimates empirically, whereas response to hypothetical increased costs of travel yielded inelastic demand for recreation experiences. It is important to use the appropriate figure in recreation evaluations.
Estimating Housing Mortality with Standard Loss Curves
Authors: Gleeson M E
Published: October 2006

Tests of fit using one set of data on mobile homes and another on conventional housing indicate that standard loss curves, such as the Pearl-Reed and Weibull curves, can be used to approximate housing survivorship functions. This finding opens up the possibility of analytical work using standard curves and the application of time-to-failure statistical models that are based on such curves. Tests of fit of standard curves to the two housing survivorship functions using truncated data are also encouraging, suggesting means of estimating housing mortality and computing life tables with incomplete cohort survival data.
The Required Rate of New Dwelling Construction
Authors: Merrett S
Published: October 2006

In the context of preparing a local housing plan, the concept of ‘the required rate of new dwelling construction’ is developed and critically examined in this paper. This concept can be briefly defined as the annual newbuild rate necessary in an area to achieve equality between the number of households and the net number of dwellings by the end of a local housing plan period. The argument can be seen as an extension of what is known as ‘the total stock: households method’ of interpreting the balance between a resident population and the accommodation locally available to it. The argument is made that currently the concept is not, unfortunately, of practical use because of the interaction of supply and demand; because of its aggregate character; because it is likely to suggest infeasible planning targets; and, above all, because it is a residual quantity open to very large errors in its calculation.
The Residential Mobility Histories of Parents and Children, and Relationships to Present Proximity and Social Integration
Authors: Warnes A M
Published: October 2006

A social survey of retired married couples, investigating their residential separation from their children and the quality and structure of intergenerational contacts, was used to collect details of the residential histories of the parents and the children. The resulting data give information on the lifetime mobility of older people and the early adult moves of their children. The frequency and distances of moves are strongly related to social class. The residential separation between the two generations is related mainly to the younger generation's moves, their occupations, and their occupational mobility. The strong relationship between residential separation and social contact is summarised.
Organisational Structure and Purchasing Linkage Patterns of Manufacturing Firms in Developing Countries: Small- and Medium-Scale Firms in Metropolitan Colombo, Sri Lanka
Authors: Dias S
Published: October 2006

In this paper the pattern of purchasing linkages and their relationships with organisational structure of small- and medium-scale industries in Sri Lanka, particularly in the Colombo Metropolitan Area, are examined. The different structural features of this industrial sector, consisting of so-called registered and unregistered firms, reflect differences in size, ownership pattern, and their relationship with government organisations. These structural differences of firms influence their pattern and the degree of relationships with different types of suppliers.

For the study a sample of 136 firms selected from textile, rubber, and metal industries is used. Principal components analysis is used to analyse the structure of firms and also to identify the significant characteristics of industries. The extent to which the organisational structure of firms is reflected in the purchasing linkage patterns is investigated by means of a correlation and stepwise multiple regression analysis.

The conclusion is made that in most industries, purchasing links are highly localised, and retail and wholesale suppliers are more important than the private manufacturers and government organisations. Patterns of purchasing links and the relationship with different types of suppliers vary with the internal structure of firms and the types of industries involved. The study also suggests strong relationships between organisational structure and links with retailers and wholesalers, weak relationships with private manufacturers and government organisations.
Evaluation of Nuclear Power and Renewable Alternatives as Portrayed in UK Local Press Coverage
Authors: Spears R , Eiser J R , van der Pligt J
Published: October 2006

A content analysis was conducted of all UK local daily newspaper articles appearing in the first half of 1981, concerned with nuclear power or renewable alternatives. Evaluative coverage of these technologies was compared on dimensions found to characterise energy issues (economic, environmental, technological, future/political, physical and psychological risks). In addition, comparisons were drawn between coverage in areas ‘threatened’ with the potential siting of a new nuclear power station and that in ‘unaffected’ areas. The development stage of the two technologies and the degree of ‘factual’ as opposed to ‘polemical’ coverage they attracted were also recorded. In evaluative terms, nuclear power was evaluated overwhelmingly negatively, and alternatives positively. Moreover, this pattern showed a degree of consistency irrespective of the dimension of evaluation. The ‘threatened’ subsample was most negatively disposed towards nuclear power. Polemical coverage was greater for nuclear power than for alternatives and greatest in the ‘threatened’ sample. This category also contained articles more likely to attract attention because of their greater headline size and length. Whereas most coverage of nuclear power concentrates on preoperational or operational stages, coverage of alternatives is more concerned with its formative and planning stages. These findings were related to people's attitudes concerning nuclear power, and the growth in antinuclear feeling in particular.
Farmer Uptake of Agricultural Land Drainage Benefits
Authors: Morris J , Hess T M
Published: October 2006

Grant aid for land drainage improvements by Regional Water Authorities has been an important feature of agricultural support in Britain. The paper reports a study undertaken to evaluate and explain the nature and rate of farmer uptake of benefits on sixteen publicly financed projects involving flood alleviation and improved arterial drainage in central England. A total of 177 farmers, 880 blocks of land, and 5500 hectares were surveyed, with data collected on the changes over time in drainage status, land use, and farming system and performance attributable to the improvement schemes. Physical data were converted into standardised enterprise and farm budgets. Particular attention was given to assessing grassland productivity. Benefits were perceived on 58% of the areas. The highest value of benefit uptake was associated with land-use change, field drainage installation, increased nitrogen use on grass, and changes in grass management. Early uptake was associated with land-use change and field drainage. Influencing factors related to a combination of field, farm, and farmer variables. The best performing schemes contained farmer drainage organisations. An S-shaped aggregate uptake curve was derived which, together with the formulation of ‘benefit scenarios’, could be used to help predict uptake on future schemes.
Households' Utilities and Hedonic Prices for Inner-City Homes
Authors: Phipps A G
Published: October 2006

The housing-consumption preferences of a sample of inner-city owner-occupants in Saskatoon are recovered from their unconstrained residential preferences for housing and neighbourhood types. These unconstrained utilities are quantitatively compared with implicit prices for the same housing and neighborhood types, computed from a hedonic housing price model. A first finding is that the households preferred the levels of eight of the twelve residential attributes that were also the higher priced. In contrast, a second finding was that their unconstrained utilities were negatively monotonically related to the hedonic price scales for four attributes, neighborhood housing, renovation/basement, age of construction, and family life cycle of the neighborhood people. The salience of these four divergences between the scales of value, in terms of future land-use and social change in inner-city neighborhoods, is discussed.
Analysing Spatial Time Series of Local Unemployment: A Graphical Approach Using Principal Components Analysis and Seasonal Adjustment Procedures
Authors: Dunn R
Published: October 2006

In this paper, the potential of principal components analysis to analyse spatial time series of local unemployment is discussed. A seasonal adjustment procedure is also used which allows trend, seasonal, and irregular subcomponents of the unemployment series to be identified and analysed separately. It is argued that such an approach may provide important insights into the functioning of the regional space economy. Empirical results are presented from a study of local unemployment in the Severnside region. Throughout the paper emphasis is placed on graphical displays and summaries.
The Geography of US Union Elections 3: The Context and Structure of Union Electoral Performance (the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Union and the United Auto Workers Union, 1970–82)
Authors: Clark G L , Johnston K
Published: October 2006

This paper is an extension of previous research on the geography of union elections. A model of union organization is proposed, relevant to the institutional and political structure of US labor legislation. Implications are drawn for unions' organizing strategies, and their likely electoral performance at the local level. It is argued that the structural imperatives faced by unions are inherently incomplete; local discretion is built-in to the structure of labor relations. Alternative empirical forms of the proposed model are considered and the advantages of a probit methodology discussed. Empirical analysis is based upon representation elections involving the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers union and the United Auto Workers union over the period 1970–82. To illustrate the implications of the derived empirical results, a series of scenarios are discussed involving both unions and their possible options for organizing at the local level.
Spatial Public Goods. 1: Theory
Authors: Papageorgiou Y Y
Published: October 2006

This is the first of a two-part series of papers dealing with public goods in a spatial context. Public goods here are treated as being intentional spatial externalities. In that context, the new feature to be dealt with is optimal public investment, the impact of which diffuses, somehow, over space. First, the landscape, the spatial structure of the public good, and the decision framework are described both for the individuals involved and for the planner. Then, the issue of decentralisation is discussed in the case where land rents go to absentee landowners. An explicit comparison between private goods, public goods, and externalities in a spatial context follows, and the first part ends with the problem of allocating land to public goods. The second part deals with some conceptual applications.
Specification Tests for Nested Logit Models
Authors: Horowitz J L
Published: October 2006

The nested or sequential logit model is the only computationally tractable randomutility model that permits correlation among the random components of the utility functions of different alternatives. In this paper, two specification tests are described for nested logit models. One is a test of a maintained model against a nonnested alternative. This test can be used, among other purposes, to discriminate among models with different tree structures. It can be implemented by hand using the results of sequential estimation of the models under consideration. The other test consists of comparing the sequentially estimated parameter values with values produced by an asymptotically efficient estimation technique. This test does not require estimating an alternative to the maintained model.
Research Policy and Review 14. Environmental Issues and the Social Sciences
Authors: Tait E J
Published: October 2006

The important contribution of the social sciences to research on a wide range of environmental issues is increasingly being recognised, and a major programme of the Economic and Social Research Council is focusing particularly on aspects of risk, rural land use, environmental economics, and energy conservation. The programme emphasises a cross-disciplinary approach to research and some of the reasons for this are discussed in this paper, and also the difficulties of putting it into practice.
A Tale of Two Cities: Sociotenurial Polarisation in London and the South East, 1966–1981
Authors: Hamnett C
Published: October 2006

The late 1960s saw the reemergence of concern over the growth of social polarisation in London. Much of the evidence produced subsequently has been fragmentary and inconclusive, the results depending on the geographical extent of the analyses, the time periods, and levels of spatial disaggregation utilised. Using head of household data for 1966 and 1981, it is shown that the level of social polarisation between London and the rest of the South East increased over this period. There was also a slight tendency towards greater polarisation between inner and outer London. It is also shown that these changes were strongly associated with changes in the tenure structure of the region over this period. In particular, the large increases in the number of professional and managerial household heads in the South East outside London were strongly associated with the growth of owner occupation, whereas the relative increases in the less skilled and economically inactive in London were associated with the growth of council tenure. It is concluded that the period 1966–1981 saw an increasing degree of sociotenurial polarisation within the region and that the structure of housing opportunities by tenure played a major role in this process.
Trade and Location of Producer Services: A Canadian Perspective
Authors: Coffey W J , Polèse M
Published: October 2006

The increasing importance of the service sector in modern economies necessitates the elaboration of a body of location theory applicable to service activities. An attempt is made in this paper to present elements of such a locational framework, with specific reference to producer services. Patterns of trade and of location are complementary aspects of the same problem. Thus three distinct channels through which producer services are traded are examined: direct and intrafirm exports by producer-service firms, and intrafirm exports by manufacturing firms. The last two ‘invisible’ channels, in particular, have important implications for the locational decision. A model for the locational analysis of producer-service establishments is then posited. The producer-service location problem may be conceptualized essentially as one of a trade-off between market-pull factors, specialized labour needs, and urban externalities. Last, the location of producer-service activities within the Canadian urban system is examined. These activities are found to be highly concentrated, but not in a simple hierarchical pattern, suggesting the importance of both specialized labour pools and urban externalities.
Service Activities and Regional Development: Some European Examples
Authors: Bailly A S , Maillat D , Coffey W J
Published: October 2006

Two general issues relating to the nature of the service sector are addressed in this paper. The first concerns the growing interdependence between the secondary and tertiary sectors, largely a function of the increased use of service functions in the manufacturing process; these service inputs may be either internalized or externalized by a manufacturing firm. The second issue concerns the role of the service sector in promoting regional economic development. It is generally acknowledged that, although it may be important for a region to possess a sufficient level of service activity so that its firms are not required to make major service imports, because of externality effects, high-order service activities tend to locate in major cities. Can it therefore be concluded that the locational pattern of the service sector has a minimal potential for reducing regional disparities, and that it would be unrealistic to expect the diffusion of services into peripheral regions? This may be the case for higher order services, but those more directly linked to industrial production may indeed be able to be decentralized. The potential for the decentralization of services activities is examined both within a conceptual framework and by reviewing the results of certain empirical studies conducted in Switzerland.
Identification of Segmentation Criteria for the Improvement of Population Forecasts
Authors: Hensher D A , Beesley M E
Published: October 2006

It is often stated that the single most important influence on the quality of forecasts of behaviour is the set of predetermined exogenous variables (typically sociodemographic) that categorise the population. These variables are used to carry the sampled population into the future as a representation of the composition of future populations. Such variables or segmentation criteria are typically dictated by the limited set of descriptors projected by specialised forecasting agencies. Although the wisdom of their efforts is respected, from time to time it seems worthwhile to reappraise the set of exogenous variables which are subject to intense forecasting to see if there may be a case for considering additional variables (and even ‘resting’ the current set). It is argued that a desired segmentation set should be linked to preference stability, and that a suitable procedure for establishing such a link is via preference data derived from a controlled experimental design. From the empirical study it is illustrated how preference data can be combined with socioeconomic data to seek out the role of the ‘current’ set and the ‘new’ set of socioeconomic variables in a particular forecasting context. Since the selection of variables must be application specific, the main emphasis of this paper is on the methodology. The reported empirical findings are of illustrative use only.
Efficiency, Equity and Pollution: The Case of Radioactive Waste
Authors: Miller C
Published: October 2006

The absence of compensation for third parties who are the victims of residual (that is, permitted) pollution can entail a violation of Rawls's second principle of justice. Environmental pollution, insofar as it is an uncharged cost, may lead also to an economically inefficient distribution of goods and services. Radioactivity and radiation dose are forms of pollution for which a control philosophy has been adopted which demands a consideration of efficiency implications. In addition, a discharger of radioactive waste must ensure that the overall benefits resulting from the waste-generating practice exceed the total costs. But dissimilar distributions of costs and benefits may leave certain individuals worse off as a result of that practice. The use of different schemes of compensation for those adversely affected by radioactive waste repositories is examined.
Structural Determinants of Occupational Mobility in a Regional Labor Market
Authors: Emmi P C
Published: October 2006

The purpose of this paper is to identify structural determinants of intraregional occupational mobility. This is done by developing a Markov chain model of job-vacancy transfers, disaggregating that model into its constituent parts, and identifying each part with a unique structural determinant. The disaggregated Markov model yields probabilities of mobility among occupational sectors for specific subgroups of mobile workers. To clarify ideas, a numerical illustration is developed. It is based on US census data and deals with occupational mobility among male and female members of the work force in the State of Utah.
User Control versus Randomisation in Geographical Probability Sampling: A Compromise Solution Using Controlled Sampling
Authors: O'Brien L G
Published: October 2006

Probability samples based on some variant of random selection are often used in geography to obtain data suitable for analysis by inductive statistics. However, because geographical populations are frequently skew or irregularly distributed such samples may not always possess desirable spatial properties. Ideally, the researcher would wish to exert control over the composition of the sample while continuing to use random selection. The purpose of this paper is to present a method which can facilitate this—controlled sampling—and illustrate it using retailing data collected for the Cardiff Consumer Panel Survey of 1982.
Rural Policies in the Gloucestershire Structure Plan: 1. A Study of Motives and Mechanisms
Authors: Cloke P J , Little J K
Published: October 2006

The submitted structure plan for Gloucestershire contained some unusual and innovative policies for resource dispersal in declining rural areas. The motives and mechanisms which explain the development of these ‘radical’ (in comparative terms) policies within the political conservatism of a shire county are examined. The policies were formulated and adopted through an alliance of technical justification by planning officers and political ratification by an important group of councillors acting from motives of paternalism, beneficence, and philanthropy. Policymaking procedures were carefully orchestrated such that agreement could be forged within the county arena for a ‘consensus’ policy option containing significant elements of prorural policy. Once the Structure Plan was sent for scrutiny at central government level, however, the managerial expertise exerted by local state officials and politicians was undone by the more general concerns of the central state to restrict planning powers. The approved plan was diluted, and the perceived ‘art-of-the-possible’ at county level was shown to be out of line with that of central government, with a consequent loss of innovation for rural policy implementation.
Research Policy and Review 18. Losing Ground—Or Losing Credibility? An Examination of a Recent Policy Debate in the United States
Authors: Clarke S E , Kirby A M , McNown R F
Published: October 2006

This policy review is an examination of Charles Murray's Losing Ground, which is an investigation of the progress made by US blacks since 1950. The author purports to show that blacks have made little headway in terms of educational progress and income expectations, and are ‘losing ground’ within US society. A critical evaluation of Murray's research shows that he has focused on microeconomic issues at the expense of a consideration of wider structural changes, and that the book is thus flawed in a number of ways. This notwithstanding, the book has been successful, in that it has engendered academic analysis and political debate. It is inferred that, as an exercise in policy development, Murray has had a major impact exactly because he has offered a simplistic approach to his material. It is argued that this challenges what is regarded as the typical practice of scholarly research, publication, and discussion. The book constitutes an important yet distressing example for those who have aspirations for influencing the course of policy generation.
Long-Run Urban Growth with Agglomeration Economies
Authors: Miyao T
Published: October 2006

It is widely recognized that agglomeration economies are a crucially important factor in explaining the existence and growth of urban areas, and therefore should be explicitly taken into consideration in long-run urban growth analysis. Once such economies are introduced, however, the urban economy tends to diverge from a steady state equilibrium and may ‘explode’ without limit. A possible way to solve this dilemma is shown.

First, a simple urban growth model with production and factor migration functions in the presence of agglomeration economies is set up. It is proved that the urban economy with agglomeration economies tends to approach a kind of balanced growth path in the long run, although the growth rate itself is accelerating without limit. It is also shown that if the total demand for the output of the city is growing at an exogenously given rate, a sustainable steady growth equilibrium exists and is unique and globally stable. Then, land is introduced to show that the availability of the third factor of production will make it more likely to achieve a steady growth equilibrium in the presence of agglomeration economies. Last, the model is generalized to include many factors of production.
City-Size Distributions and the World Urban System in the Twentieth Century
Authors: Ettlinger N , Archer J C
Published: October 2006

In this paper we trace and interpret changes in the geographical pattern and city-size distribution of the world's largest cities in the twentieth century. Since 1900 the geographical distribution of these cities has become increasingly dispersed; their city-size distribution by rank was nearly linear in 1900 and 1940, and convex in 1980. We interpret the convex distribution which emerged following World War 2 as reflecting an economically integrated but politically and demographically partitioned global urban system. Our interpretation of changes in size distribution of cities emphasizes demographic considerations, largely neglected in previous investigations, including migration and relative rates of population change.
Defining Functional Occupational Groupings
Authors: Sanderson J
Published: October 2006

Occupationally disaggregated manpower statistics are invaluable for economic analysis and manpower planning, but administrative occupational groupings are often inappropriate for these uses. Administrative occupational groupings are unreliably defined by subjective assessment of similarity of job types. Observations of mobility between 161 condensed KOS (Key Occupations for Statistical Purposes) from the 1975, 1977, 1979, 1981, and 1983 Labour Force Surveys input into an Intramax regionalisation procedure produce occupational groups defined by internal mobility relations. This is a repeatable and more reliable method for the definition of occupational groupings. The twenty-eight groupings produced by the procedure reveal some interesting and in some cases disturbing features of the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys and Department of Employment occupational groupings. The procedure could reasonably form the basis of a better administrative classification system incorporating the effects of structural changes in labour demand. Just like travel to work areas, functional occupations could be updated after each census.
The Repeated Application of Shift-Share: A Structural Explanation of Regional Growth?
Authors: Holden D R , Swales J K , Nairn A G M
Published: October 2006

The views put forward by Fothergill and Gudgin that structural factors account for variation in the growth rates of UK regions, and that such structural factors are identified by the repeated application of shift-share are examined. First, the conditions under which the growth rate of a region can be said to be structurally determined are considered. These conditions are not only restrictive, but are also at odds with the expressed views of those who support such a theory. Second, it is shown that, even if the identified conditions hold, the repeated application of the shift-share technique will lead, in general, to an incorrect measure of the importance of these structural factors. An accurate simple procedure is given as an alternative to shift-share in these circumstances. Last, analysis of variance is considered and it is shown that the assumptions required for this technique to be appropriate are essentially the same as those required for the regional growth rate to be structurally determined. Although the use of analysis of variance is not advocated, it is suggested that it is incorrect for shift-share to be portrayed as a superior alternative.
Research Policy and Review 19. Britain's New Spatial Paradigm: Technology, Locality and Society in Transition
Authors: Cooke P
Published: October 2006

‘Postmodernisation’ is introduced as a unifying concept for the set of processes which characterise the development of the space economy in the 1980s. The concept consists in effects which include: an increase in the unevenness of developmental potential between ‘inner’ and ‘outer’ British regions, growing polarisation in income and unemployment indices over space, a shift towards economies of scope by producers, a growing dynamism in localities with large service-class components displaying a privatistic consumption culture, and a growth of casualised and informal labour-market opportunities at the expense of ‘lifetime’ employment. This contrasts with a set of processes characteristic of what may be termed the ‘modernisation’ period circa 1945–1975 in which there was a relatively even spread of developmental opportunities across regional space, there was income and employment convergence, production pursued volume markets and economies of scale, collective consumption provision was socially predominant and employment was relatively secure. It is suggested that this change is consistent with but by no means fully explained by the recent monetarist shakeout of the British economy.
Projections of the Residential Distribution of an Ethnic Group: Indians in Bradford
Authors: Rees P H , Ram S
Published: October 2006

The population originating in India but living in Bradford and its offspring grew by about 60% over the decade 1971 to 1981 and underwent significant redistribution. An attempt is made to assess how the growth and redistribution patterns of the Indian community are likely to change over the next thirty years, as a result of declining mortality and fertility, of directly observed migration patterns, and of the lessening of migration flows from outside Bradford. Models used to forecast ethnic populations are reviewed and full details are given of the model and data estimation used in the forecast for Bradford's Indian community.
Population Forecasting and Urban Planning Practice: A Case Study
Authors: Rainford P , Masser I
Published: October 2006

In this case study of population forecasting and planning practice in South Yorkshire, a number of insights are given into the issues involved in the application of quantitative methods to policy analysis. It is suggested that the users of population forecasts typically question the validity of the data and the assumptions made about future trends rather than the form of the forecasting model itself. In the case study it is also demonstrated to what extent analysts have to account for the judgements they have made about these matters when the accuracy of their forecasts is challenged by parties with strong vested interests in the outcomes. In this way the constraints that are placed on analysts working within the planning process are highlighted, and attention is drawn to some of the advantages and disadvantages of their position.
Technical Changes and the Rate of Profit in the Canadian Food Industry
Authors: Webber M J , Tonkin S
Published: October 2006

The rate of profit and the causes of changes in the rate of profit in the Canadian food and beverage industry, for the years 1952–1981, are examined in this paper. Until the mid-1960s, the rate of profit was stable or rising, but since then it has fallen. In the first half of the period under consideration, the market strength of the food and beverage industry offset the negative effects of changes within the industry; in the second half of the period, however, the food and beverage industry has suffered as its price per unit of value of output has fallen (but changes within the industry have been negligible). Within the industry the following changes have occurred: turnover times have fallen; the value of labour power (and so the rate of exploitation) has been virtually constant; the technical composition of capital has risen, but only slowly since 1965; until 1965, the main contribution to the rising technical composition of capital has been an increase in fixed capital per worker (and so of the quantity of materials processed per hour); since 1965, the technical composition of capital has changed only in response to changes in turnover times and in capacity utilisation rates. The general picture, then, is of an industry in which technical change has slowed dramatically and changed its form since the mid-1960s; the interaction of this effect and of the changing market strength of the industry accounts for the history of the rate of profit in the Canadian food and beverage industry.