bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Post-Fordism and Workplace Change: Towards a Critical Research Agenda
Authors: Hampson Ian , Ewer Peter , Smith Meg
Published: March 2007

Despite the well-developed academic critique, in particular that directed against the work of John Mathews, post-Fordism is still an influential account of workplace change. This is interesting and serious. Interesting, because it raises the question of how a discredited doctrine remains influential in the teeth of intense academic criticism. Serious, because post-Fordism propagates an image of workplace change that could confuse the deliberations of those vitally affected by the latter. This article identifies three incompatible positions on the nature of post-Fordist work organization within the work of Mathews. We argue that post-Fordism. in particu lar the work of Mathews, fails to distinguish favourable from unfavourable (for workers) forms of work organization, misreads developments in management strategy, and neglects the gender dimension of workplace change. Accordingly we counterpose a critical research agenda to that suggested by Mathews. We attempt, hesitantly, to take the debate towards a sociology of knowledge of post-Fordism, by pointing to some of the political interests post-Fordism serves.
Institutional Turmoil and Strike Activity in Korea
Authors: Bognanno Mario F. , Budd John W. , Lee Young-Myon
Published: March 2007

The economic strike literature focuses on rational actors engaging in strike activity to increase their economic outcome. A separate literature emphasizes institutional, behavioural and political reasons for strike activity. While these literatures are rarely integrated, we posit that micro-level institutional turmoil, indexed by the presence of intra-firm union rivalries or outside third-party provo cateurs, and the maturity of the bargaining relationship, are important determi nants of economic strike activity. In three new micro-level data sets from Korea, micro-level institutional turmoil is found to be significantly related to strike activity.
Up the Garden Path? Enterprise Bargaining and Decentralization in the NSW Public Sector
Authors: O'Donnell Michael
Published: March 2007

Decentralizing industrial relations within New South Wales is a central recom mendation of the Niland Green Paper (1989). Decentralism also represents the cornerstone of the New South Wales government's industrial relations reform agenda enshrined in the New South Wales Industrial Relations Act 1991. To date there has been little analysis of the impact o f this legislative change on industrial relations in the New South Wales public sector. This paper provides a case study that examines the degree to which responsibility for bargaining has been devolved within the Parks and Gardens of the New South Wales Ministry for the Environ ment. It argues that, in contrast to the rhetoric of the New South Wales Act, the central agency presiding over the introduction of enterprise bargaining in the public sector, the Public Employment and Industrial Relations Authority; has been reluctant to delegate responsibility to parties in the workplace.
Understanding Indonesian Industrial Relations in the 1990s
Authors: Hess Michael
Published: March 2007

Indonesia has recently experienced an upsurge in incidents of industrial conflict. This article analyses recent strike activity in Indonesia in relation to its historical context and argues that current labour policies may be approaching the end of their useful life. It begins with some historical background and moves through descriptions of recent increases in labour unrest, demonstrated spectacularly in incidents in Sidoarjo, East Java, in May 1993, and in Medan, North Sumatra, in April 1994, to a more general analysis of the character and state of Indonesian industrial relations in the 1990s.
The Australian Workers Union and Occupational Arsenic in the 1930s
Authors: Penrose Beris G.
Published: March 2007

During the 1920s and 1930s arsenical jetting, dipping and spraying solutions were widely used to curb blowfly strike in sheep. Queensland shearers wbo worked ill direct contact with arsenic-impregnated fleece subsequently suffered health problems ranging from dermatitis to systemic arsenic poisoning. Their calls for its prohibition were rejected by the officials of the Australian Workers Union, who were reluctant to abandon the wool industry's cheapest and most effictive method of protecting stock. Instead, the officials lobbied for governmental control over its use. Formal inquiries were held in 1925 and in 1935—by which time a number of medical journals carried articles warning of the dangers of arsenic exposure. Both inquiries, however, found arsenic to be 'safe', providing that employers followed certain guidelines. Although regulations were gazetted in 1926 and 1936, they lacked adequate monitoring and enforcement mechanisms, leaving workers exposed to high levels of a known occupa tional toxin.
Teaching Comparative Industrial Relations: Continuity and Change
Authors: Bailey Janis , Todd Patricia
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the objectives, content and methods of Comparative Industrial Relations courses in Australian and New Zealand universities. It identifies changes in the approaches to teaching the subject since a 1990 survey. Using twenty- five course outlines at both undergraduate and postgraduate level from fifteen univer sities, the paper examines some of the cboices lecturers face—selection of countries and themes, the use of theory and the application of effective and innovative teaching strategies. Some new themes have emerged in the past decade, developing Asian countries are increasingly being included in courses, and the theoretical base is broaden ing. Overall, however, comparative industrial relations courses are bigbly diverse in content, reflecting the explicit and implicit objectives of those wbo teach them.
Strategic Models for a De-Polarizing World
Authors: Etzioni Amitai
Published: March 2007

An analysis of de-polarization draws on four analytical models. The traditional balance- of-power analysis suggests that as the level of integration of the two blocs (East and West) declines, the number of possible political combinations increases, foreign policy gains in the number of political options, the probability of a military showdown declines, and the ideological fervor is expected to be reduced. The balance-of-terror, the model behind deterrence, is weakened by the appearance of an increasing number of small nuclear powers, and it is expected to be further undermined by more nuclear powers with a growing nuclear capability. This is an unbalancing trend. Game-theory is used to point out the non-zero-sum characteristics of the de-polarizing system and the pay- offs it offers to all sides. Psychological analysis is employed to suggest that, bi-polarity is frustrating for both blocs, while a competition limited by rules would allow some ex pression to the legitimate drives of all sides.
The Economic Consequences of Disarmament in the Netherlands
Authors: Duisenberg W.F. , Röling Bert V. A.
Published: March 2007

General and complete disarmament in the Netherlands would result, as might be expected, in a decreasing national product and an increasing unemployment. How ever, these unfavourable consequences can be met successfully by rather simple coun ter-measures, consisting of the maintenance or even the increase of total effective de mand, provided these measures are prepared and taken in time. To make the like lihood of a smooth conversion as great as possible this preparation should be done by the Government as well as by the individual firms. This last condition is not fulfilled in reality. Detailed governmental counter-measures, meaning intervention in individual firms or industries, do not seem necessary on a large scale. Supply of labour being a bottleneck for growth in the Netherlands, the resources freed by disarmament may give new possibilities for economic growth.

The effects of disarmament for Surinam and the Antillian Islands run via the markets for primary products, especially bauxite and oil. Since demand on these markets is probably determined not only by such factors as price, quality and distance, but also by national-political influences, the ultimate result cannot be predicted but can be described as non-positive for the development of these areas.
Social Position and Foreign Policy Attitudes
Authors: Halle Nils H.
Published: March 2007

The article discusses a cross-national use of an index for social position (a center- periphery index), some hypotheses about social position and foreign policy opinion, and some selected findings from a comparative three nation study. The discussion is based upon data from a three nation survey, turn of the year 1964/65, with data from France (N = 1,209), Norway (N = 1,000) and Poland (N = 2,749); national re presentative samples. The objective of this study was to make a comparative study on 'Public Opinion and the Consequences of Disarmament' or the 'Image of a Disarmed World'. The index for social position, previously only used in Norway, proved to 'work' quite as well both in 'big power' France and 'socialist' Poland.

The absolutism-gradualism hypothesis stating higher degree of gradualism in the center was confirmed and revealed some pronounced similarities between the countries. Parts of a theory for attitude and opinion propagation were tested and confirmed. Two hypotheses about 'socio-logic', stating different kinds of foreign policy 'logic' in the center and the periphery, were only partly confirmed; the difference was clearly demonstrated but not the pattern of the difference. The selected findings from the study displayed differences and similarities between the three countries, related to foreign policy on peace and disarmament, and social position. Sometimes these findings brought France and Poland more close together than Norway—France, or Norway—Poland. This was for instance particularly clear when the countries were compared with regard to relative impact, within each country, of social position on the questions used. Finally, a hypo thesis stating overselection by the center of majority views was confirmed and further discussed.
Some Dimensions in the Foreign Behavior of Nations
Authors: Rummel R.J.
Published: March 2007

A factor analysis and orthogonal rotation has been carried out on data for the mid-1950's for 94 variables and 82 nations. The results can be put in several propositions:

1. Many activities of nations are highly correlated with each other and can be structured meaningfully in terms of several independent (uncorrelated) dimensions.

2. Many diverse international activities of nations form independent patterns of relationships that can be identified as participation, conflict, aid, ideology, popularity, South American, and migration dimensions.

3. Basic indicators that index some of the independent clusters of relationships among the many diverse activities of nations are trade, threats, technical assistance and relief fellow ships received, net percent UN votes for the US, ratio of visitors to population, air distance from the US, and ratio of immigrants to population.

4. The magnitude of participation by a nation in the international system is a result of its economic development and power capability. Its conflict behavior is a phenomenon dependent on its relation to other nations.
Perception and Information in Strategic Thinking
Authors: Lumsden Malvern
Published: March 2007

After a theoretical discussion of the relationship of information and perception to strategic thinking, an experiment is described where these factors are investigated in a series of simple strategic situations.

While rarely conclusive, the results are suggestive on several points. The need to gain information about the other's choices seems to be a clear determinant of a subject's behaviour. Perceptions that the players have of themselves and of each other do relate to the behaviour of each, as measured by the relative proportions of one of two possible responses over the other. However, the context in which this behaviour takes place, even within the confines of the experimental design, seems to be an even greater influence on perceptions. This finding would not have come out if only one kind of game had been played.

The method involved several ways of measuring the subjective elements in strategic thinking, which seem to be successful in themselves. While the results are rather 'open ended', this was the intention of the experiment, leaving a number of more specific questions ready with a way both of asking and of attempting to answer them.
Developmental Tension and Political Instability: Testing Some Hypotheses Concerning Latin America
Authors: Passos Alaor S.
Published: March 2007

Based on census-type data, this article attempts to relate political instability to some social and economic development variables. Starting with some theoretical premises set forth by the sociology of development, it elaborates and tests a system of hypotheses, whose main lines point to the existence ofa vicious circle of political instability in Latin America. Besides poilitical instability, it considers the following variables: percentage of military expenditures; rates of economic growth; social structure; and social indecision. Discussing some lines of policy implication, it arrives at the conclusion that the best way of breaking the vicious circle of political instability would be a resolute policy of development, which should include three elements : 1 ) opening new opportunities for social mobility; 2) decreasing the expenditure for military purposes; and 3) diversifying the roles of the military, by using them for purposes of development
Peaceful Co-Existence
Authors: Kende Istvan
Published: March 2007

This article deals with some interpretations of peaceful co-existence. The author considers peaceful co-existence as a co-existence, and possibly an active cooperation, of countries of different social orders. But as this is a question of antagonist orders, peaceful co-existence is at the same time a kind of fight between them, without the use of weapons. Several interpretations of well-known authors such as Jaspers, Flechtheim, Raymond Aron, Strausz-Hupé, and Brzezinski are discussed. The author classifies the different points of view discussed as theories of :

a) those who deny the mere fact that two systems exist,

b) those who deny that a struggle exists between the two systems,

c) those who utilize the theory of peaceful co-existence in order to destroy the other system from the outside, and

d) those who find even the atmosphere of and search for peaceful co-existence dangerous to their bellicose aims.
How Wars End
Authors: Carroll Berenice A.
Published: March 2007

An analysis of the problem of war termination is presented in this article. A number of hypotheses put forward to date are examined, including both descriptive and analytical hypotheses, concerning the form of war endings, the duration of warfare, and the processes which play a part in bringing hostilities to an end. Suggestions are offered concerning classification of wars, classification of war endings, and relationships between the two. Questions of procedures used in peace treaties", which appears to be true of large-scale international wars in the twentieth touched upon but not elaborated. Among the descriptive hypotheses considered is the widespread notion that "most wars end in peace treaties", which appears to be true of large-scale international wars in the twentieth century, but not true of colonial, civil and revolutionary struggles. A number of hypotheses concerning "termination points" in warfare are examined, including Klingberg's military indices (battle casualties and population losses, size of armies, etc.); Coser's "markers" (capture of a capital city or charismatic leader, reaching of a boundary, etc.); and Galtung's views on termination points. Analytical hypotheses, on how hostilities are brought to an end, are seen to be influenced by at least one of four underlying assumptions: (1) that wars end in "victory" or "defeat"; (2) that war termination is a matter of rational calculation by the adversaries; (3) that war endings are determined by laws of history or of mass behavior, to which both of the preceding are more or less irrelevant; (4) that war endings are determined by past events and present conditions, with little regard for perceptions of the future. In discussing hypotheses influenced by the first assumption, such as Calahan's assertion that "war is pressed by the victor, but peace is made by the vanquished," a classification of conceptions of "victory" and "winning" is offered. Under hypotheses of rational calculation, we examine particularly Porsholt's conflict formula and Wright's escalation formula, and their application and modification in the context of war termination. Deterministic hypotheses and the influence of past-mindedness (vs. perceptions of the future) are touched upon but not examined. In conclusion, an effort is made to construct a war-termination formula for heuristic purposes. A set of nine variables influencing war termination is proposed, and some relationships between the variables, and ways of describing them mathematically, are briefly discussed. The need for further historical research on war endings is emphasized
Underdevelopment and Dependence in Black Africa: Historical Origin
Authors: Amin Samir
Published: March 2007

Keeping in mind the variety of social, cultural and economic conditions distinguishing African Societies, the author divides the continent into three macro-regions: (1) Africa of the colo nial economy (enlarged West Africa) (2) Africa of the concession companies (Congo Basin) (3) Africa of the labor reserves (East and South Africa).

The dialectics between colonial policies and social formations and modes of production in ternal to the regions are seen as a major deter minant in shaping the history of underdevelop ment in Black Africa.

On this basis, four historical periods are ana lyzed : (1) The pre-mercantilist period (2) The mercantilist period (3) The preparatory phase for colonization (4) The colonization period.

Concluding the discussion of the colonization period, the author points to the necessity of viewing African socities as dependent, peripheral ones, shaped according to the needs of dominant, capitalist societies.
Theory and Ideologies of Violence
Authors: Derriennic Jean-Pierre
Published: March 2007

Accepting Galtung's definition of violence (the difference between the potential and the actual), it is possible to suggest a framework of analysis different from his: Violence can be direct or indirect, organized or inorganized, actual or poten tial. What Galtung calls 'structural violence' be comes in this framework indirect organized violence, and can be actual or potential. These distinctions allow a better grasp of different aspects of structural violence. Using this definition of violence it is possible to analyze nonviolence which does not appear as the opposite of violence, but as a strategy of minimization of violence.

Galtung's and Höivik's method of operational ization offers a way to compare direct and indirect violence, and as such can help to solve some problems of political choice. It implies that one accepts a 'responsibility ethics' perspective rather than a 'conviction ethics' one.

However, a theory on violence must not over look ideologies on violence. Violence must not be studied only from the point of view of objective needs, but must also take into account the goals people have, and their perception of violence. This perception is dependent on two main factors: violence is often identified with what people are frightened of, and with illegitimate behavior.
Conflict Formations in Contemporary International Society
Authors: Senghaas Dieter
Published: March 2007

The paper analyzes conflict formations now prevailing in contemporary international society. The study begins with the assertion that the development of capitalism and anticapitalist move ments in international politics has led to the globalization of international politics and to the emergence of an international society. This society is here conceived as an antagonistic totality made up particularly of the following conflict formations: intercapitalist, West-East, North-South, inter-socialist, inner-Third World, and formations of structural violence where in ternational and national conflict formations intersect.

The paper includes a short discussion on some fundamental principles of peace and social justice in international society. It concludes with some preliminary remarks on the foundation of a structural theory of international society. The author stresses that a further analysis of inter national society will have to look closely into the production relations and the exchange relations emerging from them on a world scale. The theorem of unequal and combined development is given particular importance. The author con tends that on this basis, causes and regularities of conflict formation dynamics can be better understood than by the highly abstract approaches of the last ten to fifteen years, particularly those of the conventional systems analysis.
Waste Production and Overdevelopment: An Approach to Ecological Indicators
Authors: Poleszynski Dag
Published: March 2007

In this paper the magnitude of waste production in the overdeveloped part of the world is discussed. The focus is on what is seen to be technically possible and not on the changes in affluent economies of the East and the West which may be seen to be politically realistic. As such, the paper may be seen to give one vision of a future Utopia, where no people are engaged in material production for non-essentials while others starve to death or go unclad. If limitations in resource use make it impossible for all to attain the material standard of the industrialized world and if we are aiming at a world community of approximate equality in coverage of material needs, there is no other solution for the affluent than to cut down or 'trim the fat', be it in terms of biology or economics. It is implicit in the paper that over consumption has something to do with underconsumption, that overdevelopment has come about as a consequence of exploitation and an unjust division of labor between people and countries, even by brute force. But overdevelopment may also be bad for the overdeveloped and not only for those deprived of the necessary minimum for survival. We have not, there fore, tried to separate one case from the other, but rather looked at the question of how much can be said to represent waste. Our first approach studies three less industrialized countries which today are considered to have solved the problem of covering basic material needs. We find that these countries' per capita energy use represents only 13 % of the energy used by an average citizen in 16 selected industrialized countries. Our second approach examines the possibilities of cutting down on energy use in industrialized countries without changing the level of material production. Altogether, we find that a 30-40 % reduction from the present level would be a realistic goal for many overdeveloped countries. In a third approach, by analysis of the different sectors of an overdeveloped economy, we conclude that the potential reduction in energy use would probably be closer to the 80-90 % estimated in the first example than the 30-40 % estimated in the latter. We then discuss how the work force could be reorganized, given that the industrialized countries want to reduce the use of energy and give up the production of luxuries or excesses. Of the alternatives presented, we favor increasing the intensity of labor, combining this with a less energy-intensive societal structure in general, i. e. to emphasize increased self-reliance. Finally, we relate the problem of overproduction/consumption to indicators, stressing that indicators should primarily be concerned with resources that 1) are in scarce supply, and 2) that have something to do with the coverage of basic material needs.
Minorities, Violence, and Peace Research
Authors: Krippendorff Ekkehart
Published: March 2007

Over the last decade we can observe a growing political and cultural renaissance of minority consciousness: US Blacks and now the Indians, the Kurds subdivided in three different countries, the Scots and the Welsh, but religious minority identifications as well — from Philippine Muslims to Northern Irish Catholics. Switzerland, one of the most sophisticated countries in dealing with ethnic diversity, recently had to grant another minority a new canton, the Jura, but only after years of political conflict marked by — among other things — terrorist violence. The rise of so many minorities to general socio-political consciousness tends to be accompanied by 'terrorism' as apparently the only effective way to be heard in a society of nation-states. The desperate plea of the Palestinians over the years is the most dramatically known case, recently involving political partisans within metropolitan countries in similar acts of violence and/or terrorism. Behind this phenomenon lies some thing structural which goes far beyond immediate grievances: it is a challenge to the modem nation-state and a form of mediated class consciousness which challenges social inequalities differently from in the past. We are likely to experience even more national and inter national violence/terrorism along ethnic/religious/racial lines, so long as those coincide with socio-economic inequalities and discriminations. And this in turn seems unavoidable.
Ideas of 'Survival' and 'Progress' in the Finnish Foreign Policy Tradition
Authors: Apunen Osmo , Rytövuori Helena
Published: March 2007

The authors proceed from a postulation of a dialectical relationship between means and ends: the essence of available means is taken to constitute the nature of the desired end state. Survival is defined as an end state pursued with human action indicative of two conceptions of power: repressive and progressive. With a con ceptual framework centering around these notions two fields of research in Finland are analyzed: the tradi tional foreign policy thought and peace research. The question asked by the authors is to what extent two schools or modes of thought indicated by the repressive and progressive concepts of power can be discerned and what is the state of the postulated dialectical relationship between means and ends within the two fields. Analysis is carried out from two angles: the cognitive aspect manifest in research substance and the persua sive aspect referring to the role of the scholar in social settings. As the study is at a preliminary stage, the pur pose of the article is to elaborate the analytical framework and to provide illustrations in the first category. On the basis of the pilot study it is concluded that the two schools tend to exhibit distinctive cognitive features of their own. Within the traditional pattern, there is a cognitive distance to global problems; amongst the peace researchers, a persuasive handicap exists as to the means in the immediate social environ ment. Instead of a mutual dialogue or a confrontation, the two schools show tendencies of cognitive insula tion. Nevertheless, a non-discrimination of the use of violent means would seem to provide some meeting ground for the two schools.
Using Positive Sanctions to End International Conflicts: Iran and the Arab Gulf Countries
Authors: Lawson Fred H.
Published: March 2007

Efforts by the Gulf Co-operation Council to persuade Iran to end its war with Iraq in exchange for access to a large amount of capital during the late spring of 1982 were not only ignored by the Iranian government but also met with greatly increased demands for reparations on the part of Iranian leaders. This event raises at least two important questions regarding the use of positive sanctions as a way of ending inter national conflicts: under what conditions an offer of positive sanctions will be made and under what conditions such an offer will be accepted or refused.

These questions can be addressed from at least two very different perspectives. In domestic political terms, small principalities such as those on the Arab side of the Arab/Persian Gulf have a variety of incentives to use rewards in their dealings with more powerful neighbors, particularly if they have a reservoir of fungible resources from which to draw. In structural terms, when the distribution of capabilities in a region such as the Gulf is changing from a bipolar to a multipolar one, countries whose situation is improving will have several incentives to try to bring regional conflicts to an end using positive sanctions. Thus there is little basis for choosing between these two perspectives as a better explanation for why rewards were offered to Iran to end its war with Iraq during June 1982.

But structural features of the Gulf region provide a considerably better explanation for why this offer was rejected than domestic political factors do. Domestic-level arguments explaining the rejection of rewards contradict the logic according to which their having been offered in the first place is explained. Structural aspects of the situation in the Gulf in early 1982 not only predict that smaller countries should have tried to use rewards to settle conflict in the area but also suggest why larger combatants will not accept such an offer. This finding indirectly supports Kenneth Waltz's argument that conflicts in a multipolar world will be both more likely to occur and more difficult to solve.
Bipolarity and War: The Role of Capability Concentration and Alliance Patterns among Major Powers, 1816-1965
Authors: Wayman Frank Whelon
Published: March 2007

This paper examines the relationship of war to power concentration and alliance configuration among the major powers. It does so by developing a theoretical argument from the literature on bipolarity and multipolarity. The paper suggests that bipolarity has two components — power distribution and alliance clustering. The two, it is argued, have 'opposite' effects on warfare in the major power system: power bipolarity minimizes the magnitude of those wars that do break out, while alliance bipolarity increases the likelihood that a war will occur. Correlational evidence, drawn from the Correlates of War data set, is supportive of both hypotheses for the twentieth century. The power polarity hypothesis is also confirmed for the nineteenth century, but the alliance polarity hypothesis seems disconfirmed for that century, perhaps because of the effects of hostility on the balance of power alliance structures of that era. The con ceptual framework and findings of the present paper allow one the reexamine the classic debate on the relative probabilities of war in bipolar and multipolar systems. The insights of Deutsch and Singer on the one hand and Waltz on the other appear to be more consistent with each other than heretofore recognized. Key elements of both the Waltz and the Deutsch and Singer arguments are supported by the findings. On the other hand, more recent, empirical studies by Bueno de Mesquita and others are critiqued on the basis of the present paper's theoretical perspective and empirical findings.
Review Essay : Armaments and Economic Performance in Industrialized Market Economies
Authors: Lindgren Göran
Published: March 2007

In the review of the literature, it is found that there are two main traditions of empirical studies on the consequences of milex (= military expenditure) in industrialized market economies. One is the marxist influence from Baran & Sweezy (1968) where milex is seen as necessary for the survival of capitalism. Another is the investigation of trade-offs (reduced civilian components when milex is increased). The literature is scrutinized with respect to five areas for effects of milex. Investment is reduced when milex increases. Most studies have found economic growth hindered by higher milex, partly because of the effect on investment. No clear association between milex and employment was found. However, the same amount of other public expenditure creates more jobs. There was some evidence for milex as counter-cyclical instrument in the US. The result for studies if milex is used in electoral cycles in the US is contradictory. Disaggregated data were emphasized as a possible solution to get more definite results. National data ought to be divided into regional and sectoral data and milex ought to be divided into separate parts. Standardized information on military budgets to the United Nations would be very helpful for future research.
Empire by Invitation? The United States and Western Europe, 1945-1952
Authors: Lundestad Geir
Published: March 2007

The article attempts to substantiate two related arguments. First, that the American expansion was really more striking than the Soviet one in the first years after the Second World War. While America's influence could be strongly felt in most corners of the world, the Soviet Union counted for little outside its border areas, however vast these border areas. The article looks briefly at the increased American role in Asia and Africa, but the emphasis is on the dramatic change in the American-Western European relationship. Second, if this American expansion created what we could call an American empire, this was to a large extent an empire by invitation. Unlike the Soviet Union, which frequently had to rely on force to further its interests, the United States possessed an arsenal of diverse instruments. In fact, the United States was often invited to play a more active role. The article goes into some detail on the na ture of Western Europe's economic and military invitations to Washington. The author's tentative find ing is that this invitational attitude of most Western European governments was often shared by public opinion in the countries concerned. The article also argues that this state of American empire only lasted approximately 30 years. In the 1970s, the US lead over other powers had declined both militarily and, particularly important, economically. The American-European relationship had to be redefined. Many European governments still invited the United States to play an active role, but these invitations were much more ambiguous now than in the first two decades after the world war. Finally, the author hypothesizes that the American decline was in part caused by the expenses involved in maintaining the American empire.
Toward a Qualified Teaching Profession
Authors: Fuller Edgar
Published: March 2007

Mr. Fuller, Executive Secretary of the National Council of Chief State School Officers, is a member of a pioneering com miltee seeking a practical approach to the growing problem of accrediting teacher education. The proposals of this com mittee received thoughtful consideration in each of the eight recent regional con ferences sponsored by the National Com mission on Teacher Education and Pro fessional Standards. The five lay and professional groups represented in the committee are fostering further consid eration of the proposals. Since this sug gesled step is fraught with meaning for every teacher, the extended discussion of its implications is to be desired. Not only national, regional, and state, but local groups should anticipate receipt of more detailed information and should establish the proposals as the theme of future meet ings.
Eight Misconceptions about the Labor Market
Authors: Bowen Howard R.
Published: March 2007

Should higher education be rationed to accommodate the manpower requirements of the U.S. economy? Or, if free choice is continued, will students make vocational selections that will maintain a balance between supply and demand in the labor market? Chancellor Bowen cites eight "misconceptions" that, in his view, may be lead ing the United States to a faulty and costly choice between alternatives.
The Dollar
Authors: Davidson F. G. , Junz H. B. , Maizels A. , Spicer H. J.
Published: March 2007

In the past year, the high rate at which gold has flowed out of the United States has attracted attention. There has been talk of the ‘weakness’ of the dollar and even of the possibilities of devaluation. This article examines the developments in the United States balance of payments which underlie these opinions.
100th Issue of the Review : The Economic Review
Authors: Worswick G.D.N.
Published: March 2007

In January 1959 registered unemployment in Britain reached 620,000, 2.8 per cent of the labour force, and the highest figure since the War. The first issue of the Review appeared in the same month, and its conclusion was that if no further Government measures were introduced, a small rise in output was to be expected. In the event, even allowing for subsequent policy changes, this forecast proved to be a particularly bad one, so that for many years to come a superficial inspection of the sequence of forecasting errors was bound to suggest improvement! 1959 was to turn out to be the year in which: ‘You never had it so good’; in October, in a third consecutive General Election victory, the Conservative government increased its majority from 60 to 102. In 1959 also the yield on ordinary shares fell momentarily to 4 per cent and was subsequently to remain below the yield on Consols. Some concern was being expressed about ‘Stop-Go’ which was soon to lead to experiments in national planning, and some people were worried about the persistence of inflation, but all in all the wind seemed to be set fair for an increasingly affluent society. Confidence in the economy was matched by the assurance of economists that they knew what they were about. Economic research would put quantitative flesh on the bones of the Keynesian model which was not seriously challenged. That early forecasting error would be quickly rectified once the new team got into its stride.
100th Issue of the Review : Forecasting and Economic Policy
Authors: Mayes David G.
Published: March 2007

In recent years economic forecasting has come under increasing attack for two main reasons. The first is that since 1973 the economic outlook for the United Kingdom has been worse than most people in the economy would have liked. As the purveyors of bad tidings, economic forecasters have been thought, albeit largely unconsciously, to bear some responsibility for the outcome they expect. It is implied that if it is possible to point out the dire consequences of any current policy it should be equally possible to point to a better alternative policy, and hence enable the policymaker to avoid the undesirable outcomes. This very plainly has not happened; judged by the criteria of economic growth, price inflation and unemployment the United Kingdom has done worse since 1973 than in any period of comparable length since the second world war. Indeed comparisons have been made between the last few years, 1979–81, and those of the slump in 1929–33. On that occasion, however, there was no corresponding fear of rising prices. The second source of attack has been on grounds of accuracy. Despite the great advances in technique and the considerably enhanced complexity of macroeconometric models, forecast errors have not fallen markedly during the last decade and have in some instances increased.
Factors Influencing Recent Productivity Growth—Report On a Survey of Companies
Authors: Wenban-Smith G.C.
Published: March 2007

Last year was marked by what appears to have been an unprecedented improvement in the productivity of manufacturing industries. The previous half-decade was distinguished by a productivity slowdown. This article considers recent movements in productivity at Industrial Order level, and reports the results of a survey, carried out at the end of 1981, on the factors which had been important in determining companies' productivity growth through the seventies.
Re-Estimation of the National Institute Model
Authors: Brooks Simon , Henry Brian
Published: March 2007

Economists who regularly use econometric models are well aware of the problems which arise if those models are not updated frequently. Updating is more than mere mechanical revision in the face of new data. This article will reveal that quite substantial changes have taken place in the National Institute's model as a result of a comprehensive re-estimation exercise, undertaken over the last year, which encompassed most of the behavioural equations in the model. Although there will not be space to describe all of these changes in full, the next section provides a brief account of the main developments. More information on some of the equations is given in an appendix, and the final section of the main text describes the results of a range of simulation exercises using the whole model.
Consistent Simulations and the National Institute Model 8
Authors: Hall S.G. , Herbert R.
Published: March 2007

This paper will present a set of simulation exercises, and discuss some of the methodological issues arising from the new National Institute Model 8. This model has been developed from earlier models used at the National Institute and has much in common with those models. In particular, it adheres to a traditional income-expenditure framework and is, in broad outline, a Keynesian model. The new feature of Model 8 which distinguishes it from its predecessors is the explicit widespread treatment of expectations. Recognition of the importance of expectations in macroeconomics is widely disseminated and much attention has been given recently in the econometric literature to the modelling of expectations. Model 8 now includes explicit expectations terms in the following sectors: employment, stockbuilding, investment, wage formation, the exchange rate and the demand for money. The details of individual equation estimation and specification may be found in Hall and Henry (1985a) and will not be given here. In the estimation process much use has been made of the rational expectations hypothesis, while in the full model implementation expectations may be formed either consistently or on the basis of explicit expectations models.
Roads to full employment
Authors: Sargent J.R.
Published: March 2007

Can unemployment be cured by flexible labour markets? This current nostrum had little to do with the maintenance of full employment, with little inflation, throughout the 1950s and 1960s. The secret of that success can be traced to the high level of investment, which stimulated both supply and demand in the economy, and enhanced the employability of labour. Downward pressures exerted on the cost of labour appear to have had some effect on unemployment in the 1980s, but are likely to run out of steam before it is reduced to a tolerable level. Attention now needs to be concentrated on enhancing the employability of labour. But whether this is attempted through tax incentives to investment or other means, its purpose will be liable to be thwarted unless accompanied by general restraint in the upward adjustment of real wages.
Labour Party Policies
Authors: Britton Andrew
Published: March 2007

At the end of June the Labour Party's Economic Policy Commission presented a consultation document called ‘A New Economic Future for Britain: Economic and Employment Opportunities for all’. This assessment of Labour's current policy position is based mainly on that report. It has benefited from discussion with representatives of the Institute's Corporate Members and with the Editorial Board of the Review, but the views expressed are my own. I look first at the general philosophy underlying the policy statement, and secondly at the specific proposals it contains.
Comparative Properties of Models of the UK Economy
Authors: Church K.B. , Mitchell P.R. , Smith P.N. , Wallis K.F.
Published: March 2007

This article analyses the properties of five major macroeconometric models of the UK economy in the light of the current debate over the setting of monetary and fiscal policy instruments. The broad objectives of current policy—sound public finances and low inflation—are reflected in a common operating environment for the models, with feedback rules for income tax and interest rates. Five standard simulation experiments demonstrate the consequences of these policy choices. The models disagree on several implications of this new policy framework, a critical parameter being the speed with which financial imbalances are rectified and inflation targets are met.
The Productive Use of EFL Dictionaries
Authors: Huang G.F.
Published: March 2007

The aim of this paper is to emphasise the value of using EFL dic tionaries for production and, by presenting the linguistic difficulties which Chinese learners of English have in writing, to show how EFL lexicographers could help users still further with problems of produc tion. Since the appearance of the earliest EFL dictionaries successive improvements have been made to meet the learner's decoding and encoding needs more fully. The greatest number of EFL dictionary features have been on the production side. Chinese students have en coding problems, with particular difficulties in using the verb and article. The number concord between subject and verb, the use of structural words and the right choice between synonymous words are also areas of difficulty for them. Their errors may be interlinguistic or intralinguistic, but a monolingual learner's dictionary can only help the learner with confusion type errors. Syntactic information in a learner's dictionary can be given at least in three ways: (a) by means of pattern codes; (b) through examples; (c) through explanations in usage notes. But foreign learners use EFL dictionaries more often for decoding than for encoding, and much needs to be done to help them to use syntactic information to fuller advantage.
Controlling a truck with an adaptive critic CMAC design
Authors: Shelton Robert O. , Peterson James K.
Published: March 2007

In this study, CMAC (Cerebellar Model Articulated Controller) neural architectures are shown to be viable for the purposes of real-time learning and control. An adaptive critic neuro-control design has been implemented that learns in real-time how to back up a trailer truck along a fixed straight line trajectory. The truck backer-upper experiment is a standard performance measure in the neural network literature, but previously the training of the controllers was done off-line. With the CMAC neural architectures, it was possible to train the neuro-controllers on-line in real-time on a MS-DOS PC 386.
Simulating electric machine performance
Authors: Gross Charles A.
Published: March 2007

This paper presents details of a computer program EMSP (Electric Machine Simula tion Program), which provides the capabil ity to simulate the steady state and dynamic performance of five fundamental devices: the transformer; the dc machine; the polyphase induction machine; the polyphase synchronous machine; and the single phase induction machine. A power factor correction analysis is also provided. EMSP constructs its machine simulation models from approximating functions derived from ANSI/IEEE/NEMA standards, from the author's own expertise, from information provided in manufacturer's application guides, and from user-provided data.
Network Infrastructure Development and Defense Industry Conversion for Satellite Towns: Using and Building an Electronic Distance Education System for Russia with Connections to the Worldwide Information Society
Authors: McLeod John , McLeod Suzette
Published: March 2007

Significant developments over the past few years in communications and computer technology have encouraged many new applications. The Internet allows Russia's newly privatized enterprises, especially those in satellite towns of the former military-industrial-scientific complex, new ways to access worldwide scientific and technical research; to market their products; and to make contact with potential investors, partners, and suppliers as well as customers. Remote learning over Wide Area Networks offers a cost-effective way for these Russian enterprises to realize their considerable potential in a market-oriented economy. And some of these firms can profitably produce the equipment and services neces sary to build a Russia-wide electronic distance education system. Such a system can produce educational services for the domestic market, import education services where appropriate, and participate in a growing export market.