bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Energy consumption through a gender lens: exploring the effectiveness of social and mitigation policies
Authors: Calabretta Maddalena , D'Alessandro Simone , Guarnieri Pietro
Published: March 2024

Energy policies and the twin transition are at risk of exacerbating gender gaps in time and income. Indeed, these inequalities may prevent the effectiveness of energy policies and impede the overall transition process. Addressing these inequalities in fundamental to ensure that energy policies align with sustainable development goals for a more equitable transition. Notably, within the literature there exists a gap concerning the interlinkage of gender dimension and energy use and consumption patterns, which should lead to new insights for policy-making process. To fill this void, this study proposes to apply a macrosimulation dynamic integrated assessment model, called EUROGREEN, to evaluate the effectiveness of energy policies and the related effects on income and time use distributions. Moreover, we explore how different social policies, especially the ones designed to mitigate gender-based income inequalities and time-use disparities, can act as countermeasures to potential negative effects and contemporaneously foster the transition process. This study involves using micro-data from ISTAT (Italian National Institutes of Statistics) to measure and evaluate the effects of mitigation policies on time use and income disparities, with special emphasis on gender-specific habits in energy consumption and differentiated time pressure. By understanding these dynamics, the main goal is to identify a selection of policies that can simultaneously achieve the dual goals of promoting both energy transition and reducing gender gaps, in time and income. Our research would like to contribute to the limited existing literature by examining the interplay between social norms related to gender dynamics and the energy transition. We emphasize the need for holistic studies to address socio-economic disparities for a more equitable development.
Meta-heuristic Algorithms Applied to Urban Flood Evacuation Routes: A case study in Beijing, China
Authors: Li Chuannan , Jiang Changbo , Ahmadian Reza , Lam Man Yue , Chen Jie
Published: March 2024

Abstract: Climate change and urbanization have increased the occurrence of natural disasters, including floods, tsunamis and hurricanes. Among these disasters, floods occur with high frequency, impact a large number of people, cause high economic losses, and lead to high toll of deaths. Examples include floods in Indonesia in 2021 and Pakistan in 2022. The flood in Indonesia affected about 1 million people. The flood in Pakistan affected 33 million and killed 1,739 people and costed US$15 billion in economic damage. Flood risk assessment and evacuation are effective mitigation measures to create flood-resilient cities. Previous studies have focused on flood modelling and risk assessment, yet it is recently recognized that optimal evacuation routes are necessary and critical for social adaptation to flood risks. To date, there are limited research on evacuation route optimisation problem.There are two approaches for evacuation route optimisation: namely exact methods and meta-heuristic methods. The exact methods such as linear programming, weighted summation, and mixed integer programming have been widely applied. Nevertheless, meta-heuristic algorithms are gaining attention as flexible, non-problem-specific, and computationally efficient optimisation methods. The principle of Meta-heuristic algorithms is based on simulating the optimisations that occur naturally in biological or physicochemical processes. For example, there is a commonality between an animal herd searching for routes and a population searching for routes in a flood disaster. Commonly applied meta-heuristic algorithms are Genetic Algorithms, Ant Colony Algorithms, Particle Swarm Algorithms, and Sparrow’s Algorithms. This is because these algorithms have simple structures and high adaptability, desirable local and global convergence properties and require few parameters.In this study, the flood in Beijing, China, in late July and early August 2023 will be simulated. The flood claimed at least 33 lives, damaged 209,000 homes and more than 15,000 hectares of cropland and caused 127 thousand people to evacuate. The flood extent, water depth and flow velocity will be obtained from a two-dimensional hydrodynamic flood model. The flood risk for pedestrians or vehicles will be estimated with the hydrodynamic model result and a mechanic-based stability method. Optimal evacuation routes will be obtained with Genetic Algorithm, Ant Colony Algorithm, Particle Swarm Algorithm, and Sparrow’s Algorithm. The performance of the optimisation algorithms will be compared and evaluated.  This study contributes to the scientific planning of urban flood evacuation routes and provides insight for urban planners and managers to enhance urban resilience.Keywords: Urban floods, evacuation routes, Meta-heuristic algorithms.
Suspended sediment and pollutant transport during heavy rain events: A case study of the Moselle river
Authors: Beckers Liza-Marie , Uber Magdalena , Terweh Simon , Hoffmann Thomas , Wick Arne , Hillebrand Gudrun
Published: March 2024

Extreme weather events pose major challenges for water managers and will likely increase in the future due to climate change. Heavy rain events potentially lead to short-term, but extraordinary changes in the composition of organic micropollutants (OMPs) e.g., via increased surface runoff and the input of untreated wastewater, as well as high inputs of suspended sediment into water bodies.This study aims to unravel precipitation-related pollution patterns (including OMPs and suspended sediment) in the Moselle River and identify relevant sources and pathways relevant for rain-related emission. We used monitoring data of suspended sediment, which are derived using 15 min turbidity measurements or work-daily water sampling at seven stations starting in 1974. Furthermore, daily composite samples were collected by automatic samplers at two stations located along the German part of the Moselle River since April 2021. The chemical analyses included nontarget screening as well as target screening for selected fungicides.From April 2021 to November 2021, 35 daily composite samples were selected for chemical analysis. Only one extreme rain event from July 12th- 14th, 2021 affected the water quality concerning suspended sediment concentrations and OMP mixture composition dramatically. During the event, 75 mm rainfall within 3 days lead to a flood with a return period of approximately five years. The estimated suspended sediment load of 141,000 tons during this event corresponds to approximately 13 times the long-term mean for the entire month of July and 23 % of the average annual load. A clockwise hysteresis pattern was observed, indicating instream remobilization of sediment and soil erosion in close proximity of the river. Concerning OMPs, three pollution patterns were identified. These patterns represented a) wastewater-related compounds diluted with increasing water level (e.g., pharmaceutical valsartan) as well as direct surface runoff from immediate surroundings of the river (e.g., fungicide fluopicolide), b) compounds introduced via increased groundwater discharge (e.g., pesticide metabolite metolachlor ESA) and c) compounds likely related to surface runoff in the catchment (e.g., herbicide terbuthylazine). While for the latter, the maximum intensity correlated with the maximum discharge and turbidity, the pattern related to groundwater input was characterized by a delay in maximum feature intensity relative to the maximum water level (i.e., kinematic wave effect).Other, less extreme rain events that occurred since April 2021, did not show such pronounced OMP dynamics and such a strong hydro-sedimentary response in the Moselle river. This study supports our understanding of heavy rain induced OMP and suspended sediment emissions to a large river. With expected higher frequency and intensities of heavy rain events due to climate change, these emissions might gain in relevance in the future.
The diverse influence of halophyte species on carbon sequestration capacity in salt-marshes
Authors: Blount Tegan , Silvestri Sonia , Marani Marco , D'Alpaos Andrea
Published: March 2024

As an ecosystem of high socioeconomic and ecological importance, global loss and degradation of salt-marshes has multifaceted detrimental impacts. Salt-marshes are recognised as blue carbon ecosystems and play a notable role in the global carbon cycle, due to their enhanced ability to efficiently uptake and store organic carbon over long time scales. The characterisation of salt-marsh carbon sequestration capacity across spatial and temporal scales, however, is challenging due to the inherent complexities of the factors which dictate these processes. To capture the spatial variability, it is necessary to formulate relationships between halophyte specie above and below ground biomass and subsoil organic carbon content and then examine how this interacts with hydraulic regimes, geomorphological context and external pressures. In this study, seven typically occurring associations of halophyte species in the Venice Lagoon (Italy) were selected and the relative magnitude of above and below ground biomass as well as their relationship to soil organic carbon content was examined for each association. Specifically, the analysis examined measurements of AGB, BGB, LOI, SOC and Bulk Density at 54 sample sites over two different years for species associations dominated by Inula crithmoides, Sarcocornia fruticose, Juncus maritimus, Limonium narbonense, Spartina maritima, Spartina anglica, and Salicornia veneta. The results confirmed that the association type is influential and must be considered when mapping carbon sequestration capacity. The halophyte evolutionary differences paired with geomorphology and external forcings play a key role in determining the spatial variability of carbon sequestration capacity. Above ground biomass has a stepped increase on the transition between low and high marsh with the greatest densities being found in the high marsh, often adjacent to channels. Whereas, below ground biomass and soil organic carbon content peaked in the middle marsh zone. Furthermore, the below ground to above ground biomass ratio depends strongly on the association, the higher ratios being found in the low to middle marsh. Overall, the derived patterns in halophyte biomass and sequestration capacity across diverse associations of species is vital for predicting below ground biomass and organic carbon content based on above ground biomass. These results support salt-marsh monitoring and modelling endeavours, particularly in a sustainable coastal management and blue carbon assessment context.
Hydrological functioning of an innovative planted filter for runoff water depollution
Authors: Payet Cédric , Ramier David , Branchu Philippe , Kennouche Paul
Published: March 2024

Urban stormwater management is a major challenge for limiting the degradation of surface aquatic environments. Given the limitations of traditional sewer systems, nature-based solutions are now being implemented at various scales to control the pollutants generated by runoff during rain events. Two main families of solutions can be distinguished: 'decentralised' systems, aimed at limiting runoff at source, and 'centralised' systems, aimed at storing or treating volumes associated with catchment areas of several hectares, potentially mixing rainwater and wastewater. While the first type of solution should be more advantageous, the second is no less relevant, particularly in constrained urban contexts where the scope for building new facilities is limited.
In this context, the City of Paris set up an experiment involving an innovative centralised system based on the planted filter concept. The main goal of this project is to evaluate the efficiency of this system to reduce the pollutant loadings of stormwater runoff. Mineral and organic micro-pollutants are specially investigated with a focus on the dissolved phase that is not sufficiently taken into account in the classic depollution systems of rainwater. In order to compare the innovative filter to a “classic” planted filter, two filters were built.
The two filters have an area of 600m2. The classical one consists of, from the bottom to the top: 30cm of gravel 20/40 within which drains are installed, 20cm of gravel 8/20, 10 cm of gravel 4/8 containing aeration network and the filtration layer composed of 40 cm of sand 0/4. The innovative filter only differs by the 40-cm filtration layer which consists of 10cm of sand 0/4, 20 cm of Rainclean® (Funke Kunststoffe GmbH, Hamm, Germany) and 10cm of sand 0/4. Rainclean® was specially selected during the preliminary design studies to optimise the treatment of dissolved organic and metallic micropollutants. It has never been tested before in planted filters.
Filters receive runoff waters coming from 21ha of the ring road of the city of Paris (1.3 million vehicles/day) but also clear water during dry wheather.
Since the beginning of the experiment (in May, 2021), each filters received about 56 m and 90 m of water during rain events and dry weather respectively. These large volumes of clear water could affect the pollution reduction efficiency of the filters with faster exhaustement of the filter media. However this impact still has to clarified.
More generally, an assessment of the current functioning of the filters is still necessary. To do so, water sampling to estimate the capacity of the filters to reduce pollution is undergoing.
Assessing Future Climate Extremes in Türkiye: A High Resolution CMIP6-based Analysis
Authors: Gümüş Berkin , Oruç Sertaç , Yücel İsmail , Yılmaz Mustafa Tuğrul
Published: March 2024

This study employs the latest versions of global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) to evaluate climate extremes in Türkiye from 2015 to 2100 under two future scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. Utilizing a number of high resolution CMIP6 models and different scenarios over the full projection period make this study unique over the region. To downscale coarse-resolution climate models to approximately 9 km (0.1° × 0.1°) spatial resolution, Quantile Delta Mapping (QDM) is employed. The downscaling process utilizes the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis 5-Land (ERA5-Land) dataset as the reference data. Analysis of 12 extreme precipitation indices (EPIs) and 12 extreme temperature indices (ETIs) between 2015 and 2100 consistently indicates an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in Türkiye under both future scenarios. The SSP5-8.5 scenario predicts a higher degree of water stress compared to SSP2-4.5, with a 20% reduction in total precipitation in the Aegean and Mediterranean regions of Türkiye. Despite an overall decrease in precipitation, the findings suggest an increase in the severity and frequency of extreme precipitation events. This implies that a greater proportion of total precipitation will be contributed by these extreme events. Anticipated trends include an increase in temperature extremes, encompassing both the lowest and highest daily maximum temperatures across all regions of Türkiye. This signifies a warming signal of up to 7.5 °C by the end of the current century. Cold extremes also exhibit a tendency towards warming, as evidenced by a significant decrease in the number of ice days across all areas. This trend may potentially result in less snow accumulation, which negatively affects various sectors.
Dynamics of pan-Atlantic winter compound extremes in ERA5 and CMIP6 models
Authors: Leeding Richard , Strigunova Iana , Messori Gabriele
Published: March 2024

Recent work has provided robust evidence for the systematic co-occurrence of wintertime cold spells in North America and wet and windy extremes in Europe, which we term compound pan-Atlantic extremes. Both cold spells and wet and windy extremes are individually highly impactful, and their concurrence further amplifies their effects for actors with international exposure who are vulnerable to correlated losses. This study aims to investigate further the atmospheric processes associated with compound pan-Atlantic cold, wet and windy extremes and how these processes are represented in CMIP6 models.On aggregate, cold spells in different parts of North America statistically co-occur with wind and precipitation extremes in specific European regions. However, North American cold spells can arise from multiple dynamical pathways, altering the location and timing of the associated European extremes for individual cold spells. Here, we use ERA5 reanalysis data (1940-2014) to identify North American wintertime cold spells in three different regions and relate the occurrence of European extremes to Pacific and Atlantic weather regimes. We further analyze the various pathways of North American cold spells by evaluating the relative contribution of planetary (k=1-3) and synoptic (k=4-8) Rossby waves to the resultant weather regimes. The evaluation is performed by partitioning the Rossby wave circulation into different zonal wavenumber ranges using the MODES software, based on the normal-mode function decomposition. This methodology has previously been employed to identify changes in the midlatitude circulation at multiple scales during Eurasian heatwaves, though it is novel in its application to cold spells. Here, we discuss how the wavenumber ranges differ across cold spells and from the climatological state before and during the cold spells. We next compare the CMIP6 historical simulation model data (1940-2014) with the ERA5 results. First, we review the ability of the models to replicate the spatial and temporal pattern of pan-Atlantic extremes for the three cold spell regions. Second, we discuss the performance of the models in capturing the weather regime frequencies and the planetary and synoptic Rossby wave contributions to the North American cold spell pathways.The results of this study contribute to the evaluation of the model fidelity in reproducing pan-Atlantic compound extremes and the associated circulation, with direct implications for the assessment of climate projections.
Diabatic heating rates and early dispersion of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha’apai plume 
Authors: Podglajen Aurélien , Tran Duc Dung , Sellitto Pasquale , Duchamp Clair , Legras Bernard , Randel William , Starr Jon
Published: March 2024

The volcanic cloud generated by the 15 January 2022 eruption of the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano reached unprecedented altitudes in the modern observational record, with a maximum reported height of approximately 57 km, and an umbrella cloud at around 35 km. Over the first two weeks following the eruption, the stratospheric sulfate aerosol plume underwent a rapid descent, which was attributed to radiative cooling induced by a substantial water vapor anomaly [1, 2]. However, a comprehensive understanding of the initial subsidence of the plume—from its injection at about 35 km to its subsequent observation over La Reunion a few days later at around 29-30 km—is currently lacking.
In this study, we use offline radiative transfer calculations to quantify the anomalous stratospheric heating rates resulting from a localized volcano-induced perturbation. We explore their sensitivity to various plume properties, including altitude and composition (e.g. in water vapor, ozone, and sulfate aerosols). Then, these radiative calculations are combined with Lagrangian trajectories using the ERA5 reanalysis model to reconstruct the early dispersion of the HTHH plume. The results are compared with the 3D plume structure inferred from satellite data (CALIOP, geostationary, GPS-radiooccultations, IASI-IMS) and Australian radiosonde observations.
 
References
[1] Sellitto, P., Podglajen, A., Belhadji, R. et al. The unexpected radiative impact of the Hunga Tonga eruption of 15th January 2022. Commun Earth Environ 3, 288 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00618-z
[2] Legras, B., Duchamp, C., Sellitto, P., Podglajen, A., Carboni, E., Siddans, R., Grooß, J.-U., Khaykin, S., and Ploeger, F.: The evolution and dynamics of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai sulfate aerosol plume in the stratosphere, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 22, 14957–14970, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-22-14957-2022, 2022.
[3] Baron, A., Chazette, P., Khaykin, S., Payen, G., Marquestaut, N., Bègue, N., & Duflot, V. (2023). Early evolution of the stratospheric aerosol plume following the 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai eruption: Lidar observations from Reunion (21°S, 55°E). Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL101751. https://doi-org.insu.bib.cnrs.fr/10.1029/2022GL10175
Comet 12P/Pons-Brooks' Dust Fate
Authors: Borderes Motta Gabriel , Kastinen Daniel , Kero Johan , Gritsevich Maria
Published: March 2024

Gritsevich et al. (2022) studied the evolution of a dust trail from the massive outburst of comet 17P/Holmes in October 2007. They predicted that ground-based telescopes could observe this dust trail in 2022 and the subsequent observations were successfully conducted. The observations of the dust trail provide a valuable opportunity to study many peculiarities of the comet, including its activity, structure, and characteristics of the released dust particles. In the present work, we study dynamic evolution of the particles after a long period of time. We investigate the potential for a collision with Earth, Moon, and other celestial bodies; instants of high concentration of particles in the dust trail, and how the solar radiation pressure affects the dynamics of the dust. Recently, comet 12P/Pons-Brooks has experienced a series of well-documented outbursts during its current approach to perihelion, making it an exciting case for investigation. We simulate the evolution of dust particles released by the outbursts of comet 12P/Pons-Brooks during 2023. We use the software REBOUND for the simulations, integrating with the IAS15 numerical integrator. We initiate a system with the Sun, Venus, Earth, Moon, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and the comet itself at the outburst date for the simulation. The results of the simulations are detailed and analyzed throughout the work. ReferencesMaria Gritsevich, Markku Nissinen, Arto Oksanen, Jari Suomela, Elizabeth A Silber, Evolution of the dust trail of comet 17P/Holmes, Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, Volume 513, Issue 2, June 2022, Pages 2201–2214, https://doi.org/10.1093/mnras/stac822
Quantifying surface process dynamics during extreme events from storm characteristics and landslide inventories
Authors: Clark Marin , Plescher Ries , Hille Madeline , Anderman Christoff , Chen Chan-Mao , Chamlagain Deepak , Zekkos Dimitrios , West A. Joshua
Published: March 2024

Extreme precipitation events drive landsliding in many regions across the globe and are an important part of the erosional cycle and related hazards. The intensity and frequency of extreme events are likely increasing due to rising global temperatures, causing greater future threat to society and an urgent need to quantify the relationships between surface process dynamics and extreme events. In steep mountain belts, orography also plays a role in focusing precipitation and intensifying erosion. Yet, the influence of orography on the intensity-duration characteristics of extreme precipitation remains a subject of debate because we lack spatially distributed and high time-resolution gauge datasets needed to resolve convective-scale, short-duration storm events and satellite-derived precipitation products struggle to accurately resolve precipitation gradients over areas of high relief and altitude. Annual periods of monsoon-related landsliding in the Himalaya offer a natural laboratory in which to explore relationships between extreme precipitation, orography and landsliding processes. Here we scale the NASA’s Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) IMERG 30-minute, 0.1x0.1 degree product with local rain gauge data to produce high-temporal resolution records used to characterize extreme rainfall events (EREs) in central Nepal where hundreds of shallow landslides occur each summer. Individual storms from the time series are defined using the average inter-accumulation time as a measure for the minimum dry period between storms and extreme storms are extracted from the series using a 90th percentile threshold for each gauge station. Variability in storm characteristics is defined using paired K-means agglomerative cluster and principal component analyses to evaluate spatial patterns in storm characteristics over a 10 year period compared to annual landslide inventories. Spatial patterns emerge that suggest orography increases the intensity and frequency of storms, which in turn focuses landsliding in specific, and potentially predictable, regions along the steep windward flank of the mountain belt.
Rapid Emulation of Spatially Resolved Temperature Response Functions to Effective Radiative Forcing
Authors: Womack Christopher , Eckley Selin Noelle , Eastham Sebastian
Published: March 2024

We utilize ideas from signal processing to demonstrate a novel methodology for climate emulation based on the response of the climate system to effective radiative forcing (ERF). While previous work has demonstrated the efficacy of impulse response functions as a tool for climate emulation, these methods are largely non-generalizable to new scenarios and are inaccessible to more general audiences. To remedy this, we propose a generalizable framework for emulation of climate variables such as near-surface air temperature, representing the climate system through the surrogate of spatially resolved impulse response functions. These response functions are derived through the deconvolution of ERF and near-surface air temperature profiles, treating ERF and near-surface air temperature as input and output signals, respectively. Using this framework, new scenarios can be quickly and easily emulated through convolution and other sets of impulse response functions can be derived from any pair of climate variables. We present results from an application to near-surface air temperature based on ERF and temperature data taken from experiments in the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). We evaluate the emulator using additional experiments taken from the CMIP6 archive, including the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), demonstrating accurate emulation of global mean and spatially resolved temperature change with respect to the outputs of the CMIP6 ensemble. Global absolute error in emulated temperature averages 0.25 degrees Celsius with a bias ranging from -0.14 to -0.04 degrees Celsius. We additionally show how our emulator can be implemented as a tool for climate education through integration with the En-ROADS platform, providing fast visualizations of spatially resolved temperature change for a number of policy-relevant scenarios. While it is unable to capture state-dependent climate feedbacks, such as the non-linear effects of Arctic sea ice melt in high-warming scenarios, our results show that the emulator is generalizable to any scenario independent of the specific forcings present.
High-resolution palaeoclimate simulation over China in the last millennium
Authors: Xoplaki Elena , Zhang Liang , Zhang Mingyue , Hartmann Eva , Wagner Sebastian , Luterbacher Juerg
Published: March 2024

The Earth's climate is currently undergoing significant transformations, marked by increasing temperatures, more frequent extreme events, and shifts in precipitation patterns. To comprehend these changes on decadal to centennial time scales and contextualize current climate change, it is essential to leverage paleoclimatic data spanning centuries to millennia. This analytical approach enhances our insight into natural climate variability, trends, and extremes, facilitating projections, planning, and preparation for the future.Paleoclimate reconstructions, utilizing physical, chemical, biological, or detailed documentary records, offer valuable insights into climate conditions and variability across different historical periods. In contrast, climate models provide comprehensive information and data describing the entire climate system. Paleoclimate models specifically simulate the climate of past centuries to millennia by reconstructing the forcings influencing Earth's energy and, consequently, its climate. However, global circulation models with low horizontal resolution fall short in fully elucidating atmospheric pattern interactions and linking potential climate impacts contributing to significant societal events in history.Recognizing these limitations, regional climate models emerge as promising tools for a more realistic representation of topography and regional climate information pertinent to paleoclimate studies. In our investigation, we employ the fully paleoclimate-adjusted regional climate model COSMO-CLM over China on a 0.22° resolution. This model incorporates external forcings such as solar, orbital, volcanic, greenhouse gas, and land-use changes, aiming to reduce reliance on input from coarse-resolution General Circulation Models (GCMs). The goal is to produce simulations that better capture climate changes over the past 2000 years at the regional scale.Focusing on specific periods during the Little Ice Age and major tropical volcanic eruptions, we compare our model results with climate reconstructions from various regions in China. The COSMO-CLM successfully reproduces the impact of volcanic eruptions on China's climate, particularly regarding temperature changes. However, the intricate topography introduces complexities that affect the regional model's performance, leading to notable differences compared to other reconstructions, along with inherent uncertainties in the results.
Variations in fracture distribution across Northern Bavaria – Towards large-scale geothermal fracture models
Authors: Smith Ruaridh , Prabhakaran Rahul , Jakob Fabian , Koehn Daniel
Published: March 2024

Natural faults and fractures form a critical component of fluid flow in low permeable reservoirs such as tight carbonates for a wide variety of applications including geothermal energy extraction. Fractured systems often control permeability in these reservoirs at the first order where properties of these networks are defined by fracture orientation, intensity, aperture, and connectivity. Accurately quantifying these network properties is vital in generating representations of the fracture networks at reservoir depth.In regions with limited subsurface data (borehole and seismic), field data and outcrop analogues become an important source for characterising the fracture networks for modelling reservoirs at depth. Outcrops can be used to define several properties of the networks and information on the variation in the fracture distribution across defined areas.The Franconian Basin is a major tectonic structure in Northern Bavaria containing Mesozoic sediments up to 3500m thick. It is a relatively under-researched region where limited subsurface data is available in comparison to the south in the Molasse Basin where geothermal exploration and production is well established with extensive subsurface datasets widely distributed. Increased geothermal gradients have been identified in Northern Bavaria, including surrounding the major urban areas presenting an opportunity to improve the understanding of the geothermal potential of the region. Several of the identified reservoir units in this region are primarily composed of low permeable carbonates where faults and fractures control primary reservoir flow. These units are also present as outcrop analogues in the Franconian Alb which can be utilised for surface fracture characterisation.We present results analysing the variations in the fault and fracture systems from across the region captured from 1D measurements and 2D and 3D imaging of quarry and cave outcrops. Using these results, stochastic fracture models of the parts of the region can be generated, providing realisations of the fracture networks which can contribute to assessing the permeability and geothermal potential of the reservoirs in Northern Bavaria.
Assessing subsidence-induced damage on heritage: an integrated remote sensing and structural modelling approach
Authors: Giardina Giorgia , Georgiou Elpida , Brouwers Raymond , Malinowska Dominika , Hendriks Max , Milillo Pietro
Published: March 2024

Cultural heritage sites all over the world are increasingly threatened by regional-scale subsidence. Addressing this issue necessitates a deep understanding of how ground settlements impact structural integrity. Traditional approaches, primarily reliant on in-situ investigations, are not only costly but also constrained by their installation in anticipated vulnerable structures. Recent advances in satellite technologies, historically used in geophysical studies of natural phenomena like glaciers and earthquakes, have shown potential in detecting structural deformations. In particular, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) techniques have the capability to measure ground subsidence and building displacements with millimetric precision, they are independent from weather and light conditions, and can provide frequent, weekly updates over extensive areas. Furthermore, the availability of historical data enables retrospective monitoring, eliminating the requirement for pre-installed in-situ monitoring systems. Nevertheless, the interpretation of InSAR data in isolation falls short without correlating it to structural damage.This study aimed to bridge the existing gap by integrating InSAR monitoring with Finite Element Method (FEM) modelling, specifically applied to a historic church in Poland affected by mining-induced ground settlements. The objective was to predict the structural damage over time caused by subsidence at this heritage site. InSAR data for a reference region, including the area around the church, was acquired and processed using Multi-Temporal InSAR techniques. This was complemented by regional-scale interpolation to address data gaps near the church. These displacement measurements were then incorporated into a computational model of the church, to estimate the level of structural damage. The FEM model, informed by InSAR-derived displacements, was used to assess the impact of various factors on the church's structural response. These factors included settlement profiles and soil-structure interaction characteristics. Through the proposed integration, we aimed to gain critical insights into the resilience of cultural heritage sites and develop novel, practical tools for analysing structures at risk.
Modelling priming effect to explain the effect of DOC input quality on soil C turnover
Authors: Vindušková Olga , Deckmyn Gaby , Jandová Kateřina , Jílková Veronika
Published: March 2024

Even though priming effects (PE) could reduce soil organic C gains from enhanced ecosystem productivity under global change, the PE has been introduced to few models only recently. Both particulate organic matter (POM) and mineral-associated organic matter (MAOM) decomposition may be increased by DOC (dissolved organic carbon) inputs via the priming effect (PE) which is stronger in less-protected fractions (i.e., POM) and is also influenced by the DOC input quality. In our previous study, we showed that spruce litter leachates induced a higher PE than root exudates and could track their utilization by fungi and bacteria using isotope labelling, 13C-PLFA and 13C in respired CO2 and soil C fractions (Jílková et al. 2022)Here we use components from the KEYLINK model to develop a model that can be optimized using data from the experiment of Jílková et al. (2022) and used to predict outcomes of ongoing follow up incubation experiments using 13C-labelled spruce and beech litter leachates and root exudates on soils and fractions alone. We use this approach to test our understanding of the mechanisms of the microbially-driven soil C turnover under contrasting quality of DOM inputs.
Expected performance of the MORE geodesy experiment during the orbital phase of BepiColombo
Authors: Zurria Ariele , di Stefano Ivan , Cappuccio Paolo , De Filippis Umberto , Iess Luciano
Published: March 2024

The BepiColombo spacecraft, designed by ESA/JAXA, is currently in its cruise phase towards Mercury. The Mercury Orbiter Radio-science Experiment (MORE), one of the scientific investigations of the mission, will exploit a multi-frequency microwave tracking system with an advanced Ka-band transponder to fulfill scientific goals in Mercury’s geodesy and fundamental physics. Thanks to the precise measurements enabled by the state-of-the-art radio tracking system, MORE is expected to provide new insights on the planet and its interior, expanding and improving the results of the MESSENGER mission. In this work, we assess the performance of the geodesy investigation conducted by MORE, focusing on the orbital phase, starting in early 2026. In particular, this study evaluates how BepiColombo's refined gravity data can reduce the uncertainty in the estimate of the Love Number k2, rotational state and crustal thickness of Mercury.  We report the results of the numerical simulation based on the up-to-date mission scenario, which consists of a two-year orbital phase. We simulate synthetic radio observables and estimate the model parameters through a precise analysis of the spacecraft orbital motion. We include different sources of mismodelling to reproduce a perturbed dynamical state of the probe, such as errors in the thermo-optical coefficients of the spacecraft, wheel off-loading maneuvers with unbalanced ΔVs and random fluctuations of solar irradiance, which cannot be modelled or measured by the onboard accelerometer. We use the covariance matrix coming from this analysis to perform a Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a set of gravity fields statistically compatible with a reference field (HgM009, derived from a recent reanalysis of the MESSENGER dataset). By combining these gravity fields with available topographic data, we produce a distribution of Mercury’s crustal thickness maps, from which we infer the corresponding estimation uncertainty. We compare the expected accuracies of the BepiColombo gravity experiment with the current state of knowledge. We show that MORE shall fulfill its scientific goals by improving the estimate of the planet’s gravity field, tidal response and rotational state. Our findings demonstrate how the estimate of Mercury’s crustal thickness benefits from BepiColombo’s high precision gravity measurements. The uncertainties derived from our simulation show that MORE will provide a reliable and high resolution basis for associating gravity anomalies with geological surface features on Mercury, such as impact craters, rift zones, and lobate scarps.
The Reiche Zeche Geo-Lab for in-situ simulation of mine thermal energy storage (MTES): Design and insights.
Authors: Binder Martin , Arab Alireza , Engelmann Christian , Oppelt Lukas , Chen Chaofan , Grab Thomas , Nagel Thomas , Scheytt Traugott
Published: March 2024

The (over-)seasonal storage of excess heat and cold in the subsurface is considered a promising solution to the manifold challenges of the energy transition. Many underground thermal energy storage (TES) systems are focusing on natural aquifers. In parallel, there has also been increasing attention on using artificial cavities in (partially) flooded underground mines. This special form is known as mine thermal energy storage (MTES).Like other underground TES systems, MTES faces several challenges. Many former mines are actively dewatered to keep a defined flooding level and, therefore, significant water flows can be present, especially in the main tunnels and shafts. The unintentional transport of stored heat energy out of the original storage area, whether through heat advection or conduction, ultimately leads to reduced recovery rates and suboptimal efficiency. Adoption of localized and hydraulically (more or less) isolated mine sections instead of entire levels may provide a solution to this technical challenge.An MTES Geo-Lab has been recently designed and established as part of the R&D project "MineATES", funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). The in-situ Geo-Lab is located in the former silver mine "Reiche Zeche (Himmelfahrt Fundgrube)" at the TU Bergakademie Freiberg in Saxony, Germany, and focuses on the controlled simulation of TES cycles on a manageable scale. Specifically, a cuboid-shaped experimental reservoir (water capacity of approx. 21 cubic meters) in the northern field of the Reiche Zeche’s first level, slowly flown through by acidic precipitation water (pH values between 2 and 3), was chosen. The prevalent geological formation in this area is the Freiberg gneiss. Given the pilot-scale of the study site, heat losses across system boundaries are expected to be of an experimentally manageable magnitude – and are intentionally so.The immediate vicinity of the experimental reservoir has been equipped with an extensive thermal monitoring system. This includes more than 90 temperature sensors embedded at various distances from the reservoir walls, with some up to two meters deep and distributed across 18 boreholes. First measurements showed a background temperature in the rock of approx. 11.5°C on average. This monitoring system enables continuous tracking of transient temperature distributions in the surrounding rock, facilitating the quantification of heat losses and efficiency reductions during periodic heat/cold injection and extraction experiments, emulating real-world TES cycles. Furthermore, the Geo-Lab is equipped with multiple sampling points to monitor hydrochemical parameters over time.
Exploring drivers of evapotranspiration in CMIP6: A Multivariate Perspective
Authors: Egli Marius , Sippel Sebastian , Humphrey Vincent , Knutti Reto
Published: March 2024

To detect, quantify and attribute the effects of climate change in the context of rising carbon emissions, analyses often pinpoint individual variables. The aim is to find a signal of the externally forced response amidst internal climate variability. This becomes more challenging when examining regional shifts or variables with high internal variability like evapotranspiration, which in addition is affected by observational and modeling uncertainty. However, the interconnection of climate variables provides an advantage in considering them together, allowing us to explore how their relationships evolve over time and a better understanding of the underlying drivers.Here, we investigate the combined effects of energy and water availability on evapotranspiration in climate models. Using a simple linear model, we quantify the contributions of these variables, which vary regionally. Water availability is more important in dry regions, whereas in wetter regions energy is the more dominant constraint on evapotranspiration. Moreover, we also find regions in which water availability dominates inter-annual variability, while evapotranspiration trends are better predicted by energy availability. This suggests that different causal factors may drive variations in the short and long term, which bears implications for the interpretation and potential constraint of projected future trends. In such a case, a signal of climate change is much more easily detected in a multi variate space, as the signal emerges in a direction where there is little internal variability. Finally, this approach provides insights into the complex influences shaping evapotranspiration and opens the door to possible constraints on future changes.
The Bonarelli level (Gubbio, Italy) reveals a potential correlation between the occurrence of oceanic anoxic events and large-scale magmatic activity
Authors: Marras Giulia , Stagno Vincenzo , Aldega Luca , Barberio Marino Domenico , Benedetti Federica , Cornacchia Irene , Labidi Jabrane , Morelli Guia , Preto Nereo , Rimondi Valentina , Brandano Marco
Published: March 2024

Global and local paleo-environmental changes across Earth’s history can be tracked by investigating the sedimentary record. Large Igneous Provinces (LIPs), whose activity spans from 250 to 50 Ma, are known to be coeval to the Phanerozoic largest mass extinctions and the Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs), the latter identified in the marine sedimentary rocks through key geochemical proxies such as high organic matter content (up to 30%) and positive excursions in the δ13C values. The Bonarelli level, a ~0.9-m thick layer made up of organic-rich shales, cropping out at Valle della Contessa section in Gubbio (Italy) within the pelagic limestones of the Scaglia Bianca Formation, is the stratigraphic marker of OAE2 (Cenomanian-Turonian, ~93 Ma). This event was likely triggered by submarine volcanism of the High Arctic and Caribbean LIPs, although clear evidence is missing at present, that might be given by the study of geochemical markers like mercury (Hg) claimed as a signature within sedimentary layers for large volcanic eruptions.We present the results of X-ray diffraction, petrographic and geochemical (Total Organic Carbon, Hg concentration, trace elements, Hg, S and Sr isotopes) analyses on eleven rock samples collected from the Bonarelli level along with eleven rocks samples from the Scaglia Bianca Formation, to establish a potential link between OAEs and LIP volcanism.LIP-related basalts are known to have 1 to 4 µg/kg of Hg (Yin et al. 2022). Interestingly, our results show a sharp Hg anomaly up to ~1600 µg/kg measured in the black shales, pointing out episodes of large Hg emissions accompanied by volatile degassing. Such anomaly correlates positively with the concentration of chalcophile elements such as Cu, Ni and Fe and with the amount of sulfate (barite and jarosite) + sulfide (pyrite), likely the main Hg-bearing minerals. A major effect of organic matter accumulation on the Hg contents was excluded because of the high Hg/TOC ratios. Hg isotopic data suggest a (deep) mantle-derived magmatic contribution that is not accompanied by a similar mantle signature of Sr and S isotopes. In contrast, we observed a continental input for Sr and S signature controlled by diagenetic processes in marine environment (e.g., pyrite deposition in anoxic seawater), atmospheric oxidation and seawater mixing. We interpret these findings as evidence of large-scale magmatism, which triggered greenhouse state increasing continental weathering. Yin, R., et al. (2022). Mantle Hg isotopic heterogeneity and evidence of oceanic Hg recycling into the mantle. Nature communications, 13(1), 948.