Predictors of an unfavorable outcome in patients with severe pneumonia against the background of COVID-19 infection
Authors: Salivonchyk D. P. , Kurman T. A. 
Published: January 2024

Objective. To determine the predictors of an unfavorable outcome in patients with severe pneumonia against the background of COVID-19 infection.Materials and methods. A retrospective analysis of the case histories of deceased patients (control group, n = 40) for January 2021 (a continuous sample — 15.01.21–31.01.21) and surviving patients for the same period (n = 40) with a confirmed PCR diagnosis of coronavirus infection, who were on inpatient treatment at the state healthcare institution “Gomel City Clinical Hospital No. 3” (SHI “GCCH №3”) in Gomel. The Ethical Committee of SHI “GCCH №3” found no violations contradicting ethics and morality in conducting the study. Treatment of patients, assessment of the severity of the condition were carried out according to modern protocols for the diagnosis and treatment of COVID-19 infection, approved by the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Belarus (No. 1195 of 11.11.2020). The group of surviving patients was represented by 11 men and 29 women versus 24 men and 16 women in the control group (p < 0.05).According to computed tomography of chest organs (CT CO), all 80 patients had signs of bilateral viral pneumonia characteristic of COVID-19. When processing and describing CT data, a semi-quantitative scale was used to estimate the volume of infiltration and consolidation zones of the lungs, recommended by temporary protocols. The total volume of lung damage in COVID-19 infection (“frosted glasses”, “cobblestone pavement”, “consolidation sites”) was > 55% in both groups, p > 0.05. CT CO was performed on Somatom Emotion 6 (Siemens) with a spiral type of scanning.Patients of both groups were comparable in age, concomitant comorbid pathology: coronary heart disease (CHD), arterial hypertension (AH), diabetes mellitus (DM), etc., however, they had differences in gender (the proportion of males prevailed in the group of deceased). A feature of the study was a solid sample among deceased patients. Taking into account the group differences by gender, in this study, an additional comparison of the results by gender was carried out. Results. The course of COVID-19 infection at the stationary stage is characterized by large-scale negative clinical dynamics, fever, “explosion” of acute phase indicators, thrombosis, distress syndrome with a drop in saturation and unfavorable outcomes. The indicators obtained using the NEWS-2, SHOCK-COVID scales (scales for predicting the severity of the clinical course of coronavirus infection) in severe patients, although they indicate a worsening of the patient’s clinical condition, but rather late, when the “cytokine storm”, powerful inflammation, thrombosis, significant damage to lung tissue already dominate among clinical syndromes, the decrease in saturation and the effectiveness of drug therapy is significantly limited.Conclusion. According to the results of the study, it is recommended to divide patients into groups of moderate and high risk of adverse outcome based on clinical, instrumental, laboratory data in dynamics. In patients with moderate risk, protocol therapy in most cases is sufficient to stabilize the general condition. In patients with an unfavorable outcome, this therapy does not restrain the growth of lung tissue damage with negative clinical, laboratory dynamics, which requires additional decisions, changes in the doses of drug therapy to prevent fatal outcomes.