Global Prevalence of Long COVID, its Subtypes and Risk factors: An Updated Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis
Authors: Hou Yiren , Gu Tian , Ni Zhouchi , Shi Xu , Ranney Megan L. , Mukherjee Bhramar 
Published: January 2025

Importance

Updated knowledge regarding the global prevalence of long COVID (or post-COVID-19 condition), its subtypes, risk factors, and variations across different follow-up durations and geographical regions is necessary for informed public health recommendations and healthcare delivery.

Objective

The primary objective of this systematic review is to evaluate the global prevalence of long COVID and its subtypes and symptoms in individuals with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis, while the secondary objective is to assess risk factors for long COVID in the same population.

Data Sources

Studies on long COVID published from July 5, 2021, to May 29, 2024, searched from PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were used for this systematic review. Supplemental updates to the original search period were made.

Study Selection

There were four inclusion criteria: (1) human study population with confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis; (2) appropriate index diagnosis date; (3) outcome must include either prevalence, risk factors, duration, or symptoms of long COVID; and (4) follow-up time of at least two months after the index date. The exclusion criteria were: (1) non-human study population; (1) case studies or reviews; (2) studies with imaging, molecular, and/or cellular testing as primary results; (3) studies with specific populations such as healthcare workers, residents of nursing homes, and/or those living in long-term care facilities; and (4) studies that did not meet the sample size threshold needed to estimate overall prevalence with margin of error of 0.05.

Data Extraction and Synthesis

Two screeners independently performed screenings and data extraction, and decision conflicts were collectively resolved. The data were pooled using a random-effects meta-analysis framework with a DerSimonian-Laird inverse variance weighted estimator.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary estimand (target population parameter of interest) was the prevalence of long COVID and its subtypes among individuals with confirmed COVID-19 diagnoses, and the secondary estimand was effect sizes corresponding to ten common risk factors of long COVID in the same population.

Results

A total of 442 studies were included in this mega-systematic review, and 429 were meta-analyzed for various endpoints, avoiding duplicate estimates from the same study. Of the 442 studies, 17.9% of the studies have a high risk of bias. Heterogeneity is evident among meta-analyzed studies, where theI2statistic is nearly 100% in studies that estimate overall prevalence. Global estimated pooled prevalence of long COVID was 36% among COVID-19 positive individuals (95% confidence interval [CI] 33%-40%) estimated from 144 studies. Geographical variation was observed in the estimated pooled prevalence of long COVID: Asia at 35% (95% CI 25%-46%), Europe at 39% (95% CI 31%-48%), North America at 30% (95% CI 24%-38%), and South America at 51% (95% CI 35%-66%). Stratifying by follow-up duration, the estimated pooled prevalence for individuals with longer follow-up periods of 1 to 2 years (47% [95% CI 37%-57%]) compared to those with follow-up times of less than 1 year (35% [95% CI 31%-39%]) had overlapping CI and were therefore not statistically distinguishable. Top five most prevalent long COVID subtypes among COVID-19 positive cases were respiratory at 20% (95% CI 14%-28%) estimated from 31 studies, general fatigue at 20% (95% CI 18%-23%) estimated from 121 studies, psychological at 18% (95% CI 11%-28%) estimated from 10 studies, neurological at 16% (95% CI 8%-30%) estimated from 23 studies, and dermatological at 12% (95% CI 8%-17%) estimated from 10 studies. The most common symptom based on estimated prevalence was memory problems estimated at 11% (95% CI 7%-19%) meta-analyzed from 12 studies. The three strongest risk factors for long COVID were being unvaccinated for COVID-19, pre-existing comorbidity, and female sex. Individuals with any of these risk factors had higher odds of having long COVID with pooled estimated odds ratios of 2.34 (95% CI 1.49-3.67) meta-analyzed from 6 studies, 1.59 (95% CI 1.28-1.97) from 13 studies, and 1.55 (95% CI 1.25-1.92) from 22 studies, respectively.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study shows long COVID is globally prevalent in the COVID-19 positive population with highly varying estimates. The prevalence of long COVID persists over extended follow-up, with a high burden of symptoms 1 to 2 years post-infection. Our findings highlight long COVID and its subtypes as a continuing health challenge worldwide. The heterogeneity of the estimates across populations and geographical regions argues for the need for carefully designed follow-up with representative studies across the world.

Key points

Question

What are the prevalence and patterns of long COVID and its subtypes, and what are the risk factors of long COVID?

Results

Meta-analysis of 429 studies published from 2021-2024 estimated a pooled global long COVID prevalence of 36% in COVID-19 positive individuals. Variations in geographical regions showed that South America had the highest pooled prevalence of 51% (95% CI: 35%-66%), and the prevalence does not seem to diminish with extended follow-up (less than 1 year: 35%, 95% CI: 31%-39% vs. 1 to 2 years: 47%, 95% CI: 37%-57%). The estimated pooled prevalence of eight major long COVID subtypes in COVID-19 positive individuals were 20% (respiratory), 20% (general fatigue), 18% (psychological), 16% (neurological), 12% (dermatological), 10% (cardiovascular), 9% (musculoskeletal) and 5% (gastrointestinal).

Meaning

Quantitative evidence shows a persistent prevalence of long COVID globally, with a significant burden of symptoms 1 to 2 years post-infection, underscoring the need for having accurate and standardized diagnostic tests and biomarkers for long COVID, a better understanding of the physiology of the condition, its treatment, and its potential effect on healthcare needs and workforce participation. The heterogeneity and wide range of the prevalence estimates call for representative samples in well-designed follow-up studies of long COVID across the world.