Abstract PS10-06: Contribution of a breast cancer polygenic risk score to mammography artificial intelligence models and breast density for long term breast cancer risk prediction
Authors: Vachon Celine , Scott Christopher , Banerjee Imon , Moderno Ramon Correa , Hursh Dan , Jensen Matthew , Wang Yvonne , Brandt Kathleen , Kerlikowske Karla , Pruthi Sandhya , Couch Fergus , Winham Stacey 
Published: May 2024

Artificial intelligence (AI) models based on deep learning of mammogram images have been developed for lesion detection and diagnosis as well as breast cancer (BC) risk. We and others have shown that these AI models, coupled with breast density, predict long-term breast cancer risk. Common germline genetic variation, in particular a polygenic risk score (PRS) that captures the cumulative impact of hundreds of common risk variants, has been shown associated with 3-fold increased BC risk. The BC-PRS may complement imaging risk factors to improve identification of women at high BC risk and better target prevention strategies. We evaluated the contribution of a BC-PRS to two imaging-based AI models (Transpara AI cancer detection system and Mirai 5-year risk) and breast density measures to long-term BC risk. We hypothesized that the BC-PRS will improve long-term risk prediction above AI and density measures.

We examined this hypothesis within a cohort of 10,271 women enrolled to the Mayo Clinic Biobank between 2009 and 2015. Eligible women had no prior cancer, were ages 35 to 85, had a full-field digital screening mammogram within two years of enrollment and genotyping by Regeneron. Incident invasive and DCIS BC was identified through the Mayo tumor registry and follow-up questionnaires, and person years were calculated from date of mammogram through date of BC, last mammogram at Mayo or last questionnaire. We estimated Transpara AI malignancy score (1-10), 5-year Mirai risk and Volpara volumetric density measures (volumetric percent density, dense volume) on screening mammograms at enrollment and obtained clinical BI-RADS density. We calculated the BC-PRS using 268 SNPs (of the 313-SNP score) and the weighted sum of the SNPs using odds ratios from the largest BC GWAS of European ancestry to date. We performed cox proportional hazards regression adjusting for age and BMI to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), 95% confidence intervals (CI), and C-statistics (AUC) to describe the contribution of BC-PRS (per standard deviation (SD)) to the association of AI scores and breast density with BC risk. Likelihood ratio tests (LRT) and bootstrapping were used to compare model performance with vs. without inclusion of BC-PRS, at 10-years follow-up. Comparisons to the Tyrer-Cuzick model are ongoing.

Over a median of 9.1 years (Interquartile range, 6.8 to 10.6), 446 incident BC were identified of which 285 invasive and 103 DCIS were confirmed by pathology report (60 were self-reported); 399 (256 invasive) occurred within 10 years and were used in primary analyses. Transpara score [HR per 1 unit=1.18 (1.14, 1.23), AUC=0.655 (0.628, 0.682)] and Mirai risk [HR per SD log risk=1.54 (1.43, 1.65), AUC=0.681 (0.655, 0.706)] were both associated with BC. All three breast density measures were also significantly associated with BC, including in models with AI scores (Table). Addition of the BC-PRS to models with AI scores and breast density improved both model fit (All PLRT &lt; 0.001; Table) and discrimination, with increases in AUC ranging from 0.033 to 0.034 for models with Transpara and density and 0.025 to 0.026 for models with Mirai and density (all P-values &lt; 0.001; Table). Analyses restricted to invasive BC showed identical results. But, the BC-PRS contribution at 5-year follow-up was attenuated.

In this cohort study, we found BC-PRS contributed to long-term risk prediction of BC above imaging AI models and breast density. Imaging and genetic risk factors are complementary and may outperform existing risk models and provide more accurate risk assessment to aid in precision prevention strategies.

Citation Format: Celine Vachon, Christopher Scott, Imon Banerjee, Ramon Correa Moderno, Dan Hursh, Matthew Jensen, Yvonne Wang, Kathleen Brandt, Karla Kerlikowske, Sandhya Pruthi, Fergus Couch, Stacey Winham. Contribution of a breast cancer polygenic risk score to mammography artificial intelligence models and breast density for long term breast cancer risk prediction [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2023 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2023 Dec 5-9; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(9 Suppl):Abstract nr PS10-06.