bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
“Spiritual Delicacies or Games Useful to Men Banished from the Earthly Paradise to the Heavenly Paradise” by Alberyk Kościński. Concerning the Spiritual Thought of the 17th Century
Authors: Kaczor-Scheitler Katarzyna
Published: August 2019

The article is one of the first attempts to present the works of Alberyk Kościński whose Spiritual Delicacies or Games Useful to Men Banished from the Earthly Paradise to the Heavenly Paradise (Poznań 1695) was aimed at helping nuns or potential recipients to perfect their inner self. The article discusses the three goals of meditation mentioned by Kościński (“elimination of imperfections, the acquisition of holy virtues and unison with God”) which relate to the three stages of spiritual life (purging, enlightenment, and unison). Thus, the article adds to the picture of the views presented by other authors.However, the innovation lies in the motif of “game” as an inner activity stimulating the spiritual sphere and encouraging spiritual transformation, as described in Kościński's work. The article focuses on the role of the metaphorical images used by the clergyman to describe the meditative act: the internal transformation, the experience of closeness to and unity with God. Thus, the article emphasizes the need for meditative practice discussed by Kościński, i.e., the titular “spiritual delicacies” which can help one achieve eternal life.
Commodity, Trading, and Commerce in the Contemporary Lithuanian Literature
Authors: Keturakis Saulius
Published: August 2019

The paper analyses how the discourses of a commodity, trade, and shop become, on the one hand, the subjects of literary reflection and, on the other hand, the certain structures of meaning that form the existential and cultural practices moulding the commodity into a form of reality, trade as a relationship with reality, and shop as a kind of a reality genre in the modern Lithuanian literature. Although the history of a commodity, trademark, or other related subjects in the Lithuanian literature have not been traced on the paper, it is claimed, more out of the feeling, that a commodity and the phenomena related to it are more likely to appear in the modern literary texts. The feeling is based on the theory of a commodity and the trade as a model of a certain culture; the theory, starting with the works of Karl Marx, explains the transformations of the art creation and reception in accordance with the demand / supply forces that started to determine the processes of the art in the Western culture from the middle of the nineteenth century. The theoretical core of cultural commodification enables to speak about a commodity as a literary top not as a coincidence, but as a process, which came to be discussed and reflected long before the market economy in the last decade of the XXth century, in the “non-commodity” Soviet political system, as the documents of the Lithuanian Association for Writers suggest. The combination of the archival data, the facts of the modern literature, and the theory of cultural commodification detects the evolving discourse of commodification reflection and its character in the Lithuanian literature.
DNA and its Metaphors
Authors: Domaradzki Jan
Published: August 2019

The aim of the present paper is to describe the main metaphors presented in genetic discourse: DNA as text, information, language, book, code, project/blueprint, map, computer, music, and cooking. It also analyses the social implication of these metaphors. The author of this article argues that metaphors are double-edged swords: while they brighten difficult and abstract genetic concepts, they also lead to the misunderstanding and misinterpretation of the reality. The reason for this is that most of these metaphors are of deterministic, reductionist, and fatalistic character. Consequently, they shift the attention from complexity of genetic processes. Moreover, as they appeal to emotions, ascetics, and morality they may involve exaggeration: while they bring hope, they also create an atmosphere of fear over the misuse of genetic knowledge. The author of this article states that the genetic metaphors do not simply reflect the social ideas on DNA, but also shape our understanding of genetics and imagination on the social application of genetic knowledge. Due to this reason, DNA should be understood not only as a biological code, but as a cultural as well.
Observed Time: Journey – Creation – Life
Authors: Bankauskaitė Gabija
Published: August 2019

VAIČIULAITIS, Antanas, 2015. Italijos vaizdai. Sudarytoja ir teksto „Lieka tik tai, kas įgijo amžinybės vertę“ autorė Virginija Babonaitė Paplauskienė. Kaunas: Maironio lietuvių literatūros muziejus, 2015. 166 p.
Male and Female Characters’ Crying in Jane Austen’s “Sense and Sensibility” (1811) and Maria Wirtemberska’s “Malvina, or the Heart's Intuition” (1816)
Authors: Ożarska Magdalena
Published: August 2019

Published in 1816, Malvina, or the Heart's Intuition by Maria Wirtemberska appeared but five years after the publication of Jane Austen's Sense and Sensibility (1811). My paper stipulates that Wirtemberska's Malvina was to a large extent inspired by Austen's novel although no straightforward evidence exists to suggest that the Polish writer was familiar with the works of the English author. Austen's novels were not rendered into Polish in the nineteenth century: the first translation was published as late as 1934. But novels by Western European authors were read by educated Poles in their original language versions, or in French translations and adaptations. It is crucial to view Wirtemberska's romance as a specimen of the same genre as Austen's works because several parallels emerge in terms of the novel's structure, motifs and characters. My paper looks at the ways in which the motif and images of crying are used in Austen's and Wirtemberska's novels. The two works seem a good choice for this kind of comparative analysis as they tackle various aspects of sensibility, a phenomenon which invoked mixed feelings among the novelists' contemporaries, excitement and a sense of moral jeopardy included.
Literature and Economics. Another Way to Read the Text
Authors: Kisieliūtė Ingrida
Published: August 2019

At the end of the 20th century, the study of literature was supplemented by such new methods as biopoetics, geopoetics, new historicism, etc. The New Economic Criticism, a new approach to the literary text, was found in the United States in the late 20th century. The present article discusses the main aspects of the aforementioned area of the study of literature and as well presents the possible approaches to literary texts from the economic perspective. The New Economic Criticism does not aim to become a method or tendency; thus, it givesthe freedom for a researcher to choose the perspective on the relationship between the literature and economics. The above-mentioned kind of analysis may be found in the English-speaking countries; whereas, the Russian literature has still remained unconsidered; however, Russian scholars are attempting to look at their fiction through the eyes of an economist. In Lithuania, the kind of research has not been found yet. Therefore, the article suggests one of the possible economic approaches, i.e., the analysis of the financial practices of the protagonist of The Gambler by F. Dostoyevsky.
Contemporary Homo Europeicus. Transformation of European Identity
Authors: Zamojski Adam
Published: August 2019

This article explains the origins of European identity, contemporary Homo Europeicus and transformation of European identity. It describes, in a synthetic form, the symbolic sources of European identity like ancient Greek philosophy, Roman law, Christian religion, Barbarian aspects of civilisation and the Age of Enlightenment. It as well describes the circumstances and causes of the crisis of Latin civilization and traditional European Identity in relation to the population boom of Muslims in the Western Europe. Further on, it concludes with an outlook on the role of Postmodernism, Islam, Christian evolutionism, Neo-pagan religion, New Age Movement and Consumptionism in the transformation process of the traditional EuropeanIdentity. Conclusion is an attempt to exemplify the style of Andrzej Wierciński’s scientific approach. This part presents his concept of the peculiarity of the specific human nature which is polarized into the animal side versus the human potential.
Characterization of multilayer films based on recycled high density polyethylene (hdpe) using methods of ir-spectroscopy
Authors: Georgieva Krasimira , Denev Yordan , Todorov Nikola
Published: August 2019

The spectra in middle IR-region of common polymers obtain different characteristic bands
which can be analyzed for proper characterization and identification of single polymers in polymer mixture. In the present work the results of multilayer polymer films based on recycled high density polyethylene (HDPE) characterization are presented. The main technological problem in the secondary processing of HDPE is determination of the polymer degradation degree. The most suitable region in the IR-region is between 1850 – 1630 cm-1 , where the carbonyl group displays bands related to the oxidation processes of polyolefins. All IR-spectra have weak absorption in this region which proves the oxidation processes in macromolecular chains. The carbonyl index of the studied films is calculated too. It is proved that the recycling process of HDPE is insignificantly related to its stability, macromolecular characteristics
and possibility for secondary processing. The results of present study show a perspective possibility for utilization of huge amounts of waste HDPE as main component in multilayer films with good characteristics, suitable for packaging purposes of foods.
INEFISIENSI PENGADAAN TANAH UNTUK KEPENTINGAN UMUM (Studi Kasus Pembangunan Waduk Jatigede di Kabupaten Sumedang)
Authors: Wahidah Idah
Published: August 2019

The construction of the Jatigede Dam for the public interest is imbalanced in its implementation. Based on the results of observations, researchers see a lot of problems that occur, including land acquisition issued a lot of regulations, implementation is quite long, and the costs incurred are quite large. The researcher uses E. Bardach's theory, to determine administrative operability (authority, institutional commitment, capability, organizational support) criteria, to find out the impact of policy researchers using the theory of Thomas R. Dye. Research methods and approaches are carried out with qualitative and quantitative research methods with a descriptive approach. The method of data collection is through observation, semistructured interviews and documentation. The informant selection technique uses purposive techniques and the validity of the data by data triangulation. The results of this study using the administrative operability criteria approach did not meet the criteria optimally
Serious Cutaneous Toxicities with Immune Checkpoint Inhibitors in the U.S. Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System
Authors: Raschi Emanuel , Antonazzo Ippazio Cosimo , La Placa Michelangelo , Ardizzoni Andrea , Poluzzi Elisabetta , De Ponti Fabrizio
Published: August 2019

Cutaneous toxicities frequently occurred with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs), although clinical and pharmacological features are incompletely characterized. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System was queried to describe ICI-related cutaneous toxicities, focusing on severe cutaneous adverse reactions (SCARs): Stevens-Johnson Syndrome (SJS), toxic epidermal necrolysis (TEN), and drug reaction with eosinophilia and systemic symptoms (DRESS) syndrome. As compared with other anticancer drugs, a higher proportion of death (11.3% vs. 8.7%) and serious reports (42.7% vs. 34.6%) emerged for ICIs (p < .05). A higher frequency of coreported allopurinol and antiepileptics was recorded among 2,525 total SCARs (17% vs. 10%, ICIs and anticancer agents, respectively; p < .05). Mean times to onset were 47, 48, and 40 days (SJS, TEN, and DRESS, respectively), with comparable mean latency between monotherapy and combination regimens (41 days). This immune-related pattern advocates for long-lasting monitoring by oncologists and dermatologists.
Trends and Racial Disparities of Palliative Care Use among Hospitalized Patients with ESKD on Dialysis
Authors: Wen Yumeng , Jiang Changchuan , Koncicki Holly M. , Horowitz Carol R. , Cooper Richard S. , Saha Aparna , Coca Steven G. , Nadkarni Girish N. , Chan Lili
Published: August 2019

Significance Statement

Studies have shown significant racial and ethnic disparities in the end-of-life care received by dialysis patients with ESKD in the United States, but little is known about disparity in the palliative care services received by such patients in the inpatient setting. This retrospective cohort study of 5,230,865 hospitalizations of patients on dialysis found that, despite a significant increase in use of palliative care services from 2006 through 2014, such services remained underused. Black and Hispanic patients were less likely than white patients to receive palliative care services in the hospital, disparities that persisted in all hospital subtypes, including hospitals with a high proportion of minority patients. These results complement previous findings and highlight the importance of further investigation of systemic issues contributing to barriers and racial disparities in palliative care use.

Background

Study findings show that although palliative care decreases symptom burden, it is still underused in patients with ESKD. Little is known about disparity in use of palliative care services in such patients in the inpatient setting.

Methods

To investigate the use of palliative care consultation in patients with ESKD in the inpatient setting, we conducted a retrospective cohort study using the National Inpatient Sample from 2006 to 2014 to identify admitted patients with ESKD requiring maintenance dialysis. We compared palliative care use among minority groups (black, Hispanic, and Asian) and white patients, adjusting for patient and hospital variables.

Results

We identified 5,230,865 hospitalizations of such patients from 2006 through 2014, of which 76,659 (1.5%) involved palliative care. The palliative care referral rate increased significantly, from 0.24% in 2006 to 2.70% in 2014 (P<0.01). Black and Hispanic patients were significantly less likely than white patients to receive palliative care services (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.72; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 0.61 to 0.84, P<0.01 for blacks and aOR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.68, P<0.01 for Hispanics). These disparities spanned across all hospital subtypes, including those with higher proportions of minorities. Minority patients with lower socioeconomic status (lower level of income and nonprivate health insurance) were also less likely to receive palliative care.

Conclusions

Despite a clear increase during the study period in provision of palliative care for inpatients with ESKD, significant racial disparities occurred and persisted across all hospital subtypes. Further investigation into causes of racial and ethnic disparities is necessary to improve access to palliative care services for the vulnerable ESKD population.
Referral for Kidney Transplantation in Canadian Provinces
Authors: Kim S. Joseph , Gill John S. , Knoll Greg , Campbell Patricia , Cantarovich Marcelo , Cole Edward , Kiberd Bryce
Published: August 2019

Significance Statement

In Canada, access to kidney transplantation requires referral to a transplant center, and selection of patients for transplant is in part a subjective process. The authors determined the incidence of transplant referral among incident patients with ESKD in Canada. Only 17% of incident patients with ESKD were referred within 12 months of starting dialysis, and transplant referral varied more than three-fold between provinces. Factors associated with a lower likelihood of referral included older age, female sex, and receiving dialysis >100 km from a transplant center, but not median household income or nonwhite race. The findings highlight the need to educate health care providers about the medical criteria for kidney transplantation and implement standards for referral, as well as the need for ongoing reporting of referral for transplantation in national registries.

Background

Patient referral to a transplant facility, a prerequisite for dialysis-treated patients to access kidney transplantation in Canada, is a subjective process that is not recorded in national dialysis or transplant registries. Patients who may benefit from transplant may not be referred.

Methods

In this observational study, we prospectively identified referrals for kidney transplant in adult patients between June 2010 and May 2013 in 12 transplant centers, and linked these data to information on incident dialysis patients in a national registry.

Results

Among 13,184 patients initiating chronic dialysis, the cumulative incidence of referral for transplant was 17.3%, 24.0%, and 26.8% at 1, 2, and 3 years after dialysis initiation, respectively; the rate of transplant referral was 15.8 per 100 patient-years (95% confidence interval, 15.1 to 16.4). Transplant referral varied more than three-fold between provinces, but it was not associated with the rate of deceased organ donation or median waiting time for transplant in individual provinces. In a multivariable model, factors associated with a lower likelihood of referral included older patient age, female sex, diabetes-related ESKD, higher comorbid disease burden, longer durations (>12.0 months) of predialysis care, and receiving dialysis at a location >100 km from a transplant center. Median household income and non-Caucasian race were not associated with a lower likelihood of referral.

Conclusions

Referral rates for transplantation varied widely between Canadian provinces but were not lower among patients of non-Caucasian race or with lower socioeconomic status. Standardization of transplantation referral practices and ongoing national reporting of referral may decrease disparities in patient access to kidney transplant.
Explaining Changes in Euro Dollar Positions: A Study of Banks in Four European Countries
Authors: Mills Rodney H.
Published: August 2019

This paper discusses problems encountered in trying to explain changes in the net Euro-dollar positions of banks in four Western European counteries. The positions dealth are banks Euro-dollar positions vis-a-vis nonresidents only. The omission of positions vis-a-vis residents -- caused by lack of data -- is probably not important. Those positions tend to be much smaller than the positions vis-a-vis nonresidents, and their inclusion would probably not alter significantly the results obtained from the data that are employed.
Devaluation-Bias and the Bretton Woods System
Authors: Katz Samuel I.
Published: August 2019

The exchange-rate system established at Bretton Woods -- usually called par-value or the adjustable-peg system -- was intended to combine a fixity of the par-value of each member's currency in the short-run with a flexibility of the parity in the longer-run. That is, the member was expected to maintain the spot exchange rate within 1% on either side of the parity and to alter the par-value only where its officials could demonstrate to the Fund that a state of "fundamental disequilibrium" existed. Because of this emphasis upon the fixity of spot rates and of the parity in the short-run, the Fund's par-value can be regarded as a variant of fixed exchange rates.
Trade Data of OECD Countries by End-Use Commodity Categories
Authors: Morisse Kathryn A.
Published: August 2019

This report presents the results of a project to classify the export and import data of twenty-two Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries by fourteen market-oriented (or final demand) commodity categories based on the U.S. system of classifying exports and imports by OBE end-use commodity categories. Both methodology and data results are summarized. The statisitical output of the project is presented here as an interim report; analysis of the economic implications of these statistics has been incorported into ongoing research projects;
A Note on the Mix of Policies and the Theory of Capital Movements
Authors: Roper Don E.
Published: August 2019

Beginning with Robery Mundell's well known article in 1962, there has been widespread interest and debate over the policy mix or assignment problem. If financial capital movements between countries are sensitive to interest rates, then, according to Mundell, "in countries where employment and balance-of-payments policies are restricted to monetary and fiscal instruments, monetary policy should be reserved for attaining the desired level of the balance of payments and fiscal policy for preserving internal stability."
Notes on Some Aspects of the Effects of the Recent Exchange Rate Changes on the U.S. Trade Balance
Authors: Junz Helen B.
Published: August 2019

The seeming aborutness of the policy actions taken last August surprised many people. But to those more familiar with underlying situation, it had become increasingly clear that the U.S. balance of payments had been in fundamental disequilibrium for quite some time prior to 1971.
Forward Exchange Rates as Estimates of Exchange Rate Expectations: A Comment
Authors: Roper Don E.
Published: August 2019

In a recent note Jeremy Siegel applied the statisitcal theorem -- that the expectation of a positive random variable with positive variance will be greater than the reciprocal of the expectation of the inverse of the random variable -- to demonstrate that "[e]ven in the simple case where investors are risk-neutral, ..., it can be shown that the forward price of the foreign currency is not an unbiased estimator of the anticipated future price."
The Effects of the Substitution of Dollars for Gold for the Distribution of the Adjustment Burden and the Control of the World Money Supply
Authors: Roper Don E.
Published: August 2019

The substitution of a fiat money, like dollars, for a commodity money, like gold, in the international activities of national monetary authorities has important consequences for the functioning of the international monetary system. This substitution process has occurred in two areas that, although historically related, can be seperated. One substitution process has been the replacement of specie with foreign sexchange as the asset used by monetary authorities for stabilizing their exchange rates. As early as the latter part of the 19th century, authorities who were stabilizing the gold values of their currencies by buying and selling gold would occassionally enter the foreign exchange market directly. By the end of World Way II, most of the major countries in teh western world outside the United States had altogether ceased stabilizing exchage rates via the gold market. Most countries are now maintaining fixed exchange rates by direct purchases and sales in the markets for foreign exchange rates by direct puchases and sales in the markets for foreign exchange. The other substitution process, about which more is known, has been the partial replacement of gold with interest bearing securities in the international reserve of monetary authorities.
The Future of Private Enterprise in the Developing Countries
Authors: Irvine Reed J.
Published: August 2019

A number of development over the past year have raised questions about the kind of economic organization that is most beneficial to the developing countries of the world. After a brief period of quiescence in the debate between the advocates of the free market and those who wanted a high degree of state planning and control, trends in thought that are reminiscent of those encountered over a decade ago have begun to reappear.
Patterns of Housing Experience During Periods of Credit Restraint in Industrialized Countries
Authors: Fisher Robert Moore , Siegman Charles J.
Published: August 2019

Declines in private housing production during periods of credit restraint have been widely publicized in the United States. Four such downturns have been recorded in the past decade and a half--in 1955-57, 1959-60, 1965-66, and 1969-70. A varieity of measures have been adopted or recommended during recent years in an effort to lessen the disproportionately heavy impact of credit retraint on private housing sector. Other measures have been offered to minimize the need for, or reliance on, credit restraint.
A Two Country Model of Financial Capital Movements as Stock Adjustments with Emphasis on the Effects of Central Bank Policy
Authors: Girton Lance , Henderson Dale W.
Published: August 2019

Over the past decade theoretical and empirical analyses of financial asset holding have relied increasingly upon the portfolio balance approach. According to this approach the desired holdings of each financial asset by a well defined group of wealth holders depend upon the levels of the interest rates on the asset in question and on laternative assets, the size of the portfolio of the group of asset holders under consideration, and perhaps other variables. Changes in desired asset holdings depend upon changes in these variables.
A Review of Current U.S. Position in Petroleum
Authors: Lang Alex X.
Published: August 2019

Fuel shortages experienced this winter in some parts of the United States and a sharp increase in dependence upon oil imports underscore the seriousness of U.S. energy situation. Shortages of domestic energy resources developed only gradually, although at an accelerating rate during the past decade. They remained largely unnoticed by the general public until surfacing with alarming suddenness about a year ago. Since then, the "energy crisis" has been identified as one of the foremost economic problems confronting this nation. It has become a subject of heated public debate, prompting a spate of studies and projections by public and private instituions concerned. The following text will focus mainly on the petroleum situation, the central element in the energy problem. It will discuss some of the most important factors affecting U.S. position in petroleum, its balance of payments impact, and some of the long and short-run projections.
The Rate of Monetization in the Less Developed Countries
Authors: Emery Robert F.
Published: August 2019

Relatively few studies have been undertaken of the rate, or degree, of monetization in the less developed countries (LDCs). This appears to be due mainly to the lack of extensive and reliable datea, which in turn is due to the various diffuculties -- to say nothing of the time and expense -- involved in collecting such data. Very few countries, for example, have conducted studies such as India's "All Rural Credit Survey," which would provide detailed and fairly reliable data on the extent of monetization.
Imported Inflation and the Balance of Payments
Authors: Katz Samuel I.
Published: August 2019

The world-wide character of recent price and wage advances has inevitably focused attention on inflation as an international phenomenon. The authorities in the industrial countries have found internal stability threatened by inflationary forces from abroad. Increasingly, international factors--the expansion in world trade and investment flows, the official efforts in recent decades to eliminate restrictions on private current-account and capital transations, the growth of multinational corporations and the development of international private banking facilities of unprecedented efficiency for the transfer of private funds across national borders--have limited the effectiveness of national programs to protect the internal economy from external disturbance. This attention to the international aspects of the inflation process was further stimulated in 1971 and 1972 when country after country found the domestic stabilization effort threatened by inflows of fund from abroad.
The Effects of Foreign Inflation on Domestic Prices and the Relative Price Advantage of Exchange Rate Changes
Authors: Kwack Sung Y.
Published: August 2019

Since exchange rate realignments of major currencies in the world in the last few years, major industrial countries have experienced substantially higher-than-average rates of inflation in the 1960's. Consequently, there is considerable interest in the effects of external inflation on domestic prices. Several studies, notably by Branson and Clark, discussed the effects on the U.S. trade account of the exchange rate realignment. The common assumption in these studies is that the increase in import prices relative to domestic prices resulting from a currency depreciation equals the rate of deprecation. While recognizing the weakness of this assumption, they, nevertheless, introduced the assumption in the absence of information on the induced changes in domestic prices.
A Note on the Monetary Approach to the Balance of Payments
Authors: Salop Joanne
Published: August 2019

The monetary approach to the balance of payments has received a lot of publicity in recent months; neverthelss, there remains considerable confusion as to precisely (1) what it is, (2) what it assumes, and (3) what it contributes. In this paper I propose answer to these questions, restricting coverate to the theoretical issues.
New Trends in the Energy-Petroleum Situation of Europe and Japan
Authors: Lang Alexander S.
Published: August 2019

The serious disruption of normal oil supplies i nthe world market following the outbreak of new hostilities in the Middle East has dramatically demonstrated the extreme dependence of Europe and Japan on oil imports. This sudden crisis came at a time when important new trends have been gathering momentum in the energy-petroleum situation and in national energy policies. The current crisis and the heightended public awareness in the industrialized nations of their dangerous vulnerability to vagaries of the international pertroleum market, can now be expected to accelerate greatly the new trends, and may signify a major turning point in the world petroleum situation. It will be the objective of the following study to examine these trends, and their implications for future oil-import needs of Europe and Japan.
Direct Investment and Trade: An Analysis of the Export Displacement Effect
Authors: Adler Michael , Stevens Guy V. G.
Published: August 2019

The multinational corporation (MNC) has the choice of supplying foreign markets via either exports from the home market (US) or local production by a foreign subsidiary (FS). If the final (as distinguished from intermediate) U.S.-made and FS-produced goods are no identical the firm may do both. Two important questions in the analysis of the balance of payments impact of direct investment then arise. What determines this choice? And what is the impact of an increase in sales of the FS-product on sales of MNC exports? The purpose of this paper is to investigate these issues and especially the latter, the question of export displacement.
Exchange-Rate Flexibility and the Efficiency of the Foreign-Exchange Markets
Authors: Fieleke Norman S.
Published: August 2019

Perhaps the major issue in the international monetary reform negotiaions is how much market flexibility to allow in exchange rates between national currencies. Although there will surely be more flexibility in the future than undr the Bretton Woods system, there has been much concern thata high degree of flexibility might somehow overburden the institutions of the foreign-exchange market particularly the forward market, and thereby disrupt international commerce. While seldom clearly stated, the reasoning underlying this concern usually proceeds along the following lines. Substantial exchange-rate flexibility leads business management to expect greater exhange-rate variations, with the result that businesses seek to cover must more of their foreign-exchange exposure (i.e., seek to "insure" against the greater exchange-rate risk) by purchasing or selling foreign currency forward. However, foreign-exchange traders either cannot accommodate this greatly increased demand for their services, or can accommodate it only at substantially higher cose. Consquently, business firms significantly reduce the volume of their international transactions.
The Emerging Exchange-Rate System (Early 1974)
Authors: Katz Samuel I.
Published: August 2019

The year 1973 can be recognized as a watershed in world monetary history. It marked, among other developments, the end of the Bretton Woods era. It demonstrated that the mechanism of a formal par value for each nation's currency, to achieve stability of exchange rates and orderly conditions in exchange markets, was no longer viable. When the dollar was devalued a second time in February 1973 and when other industrial countries responded by floating their currencies, it was evident that the oridinal Bretton Woods arrangements had passed into history.
Two Multi-Level Models of U.S. Merchandise Trade, 1958.I-1971.IV, and Post-Sample Analysis, 1972.I-1973.II: An Evaluation of a Workable Forecasting System
Authors: Wilson John F. , Hooper Peter
Published: August 2019

This paper is a joint presentation of two models of U.S. merchandise trade developed independently by Hooper (1974) and Wilson (1973). The models discussed here consist of import and export demand equations in aggregate form, and disaggregated by "End-Use" commodity category and geographical region. Particular attention is given to the issues of dynamic adjustment, shifting coefficients and aggregation error. We investigate several alternative techniques for estimating adjustment lags for weighting disaggregate explanatory variables in aggregation. Post-sample simulation is emphasized in our analysis as we attempt to determine the predictive viability of the laternative specifications investigated.
Empirical Research on Financial Capital Flows
Authors: Bryant Ralph C.
Published: August 2019

This paper is concerned with the growning body of literature reporting on empirical research on international capital flows. The term "financial" capital flows (or, alternatively, portfolio capital flows) is used in the paper to connote capital flows other than direct investments. Readers interested primarily in the research on direct investments and the multinational corporation should consult ... paper and its references elsewhere in this volume.
Comment on "The Effects of Exchange Rate Adjustment on International Investment" by Dennis E. Logue and Thomas D. Willett
Authors: Stevens Guy V. G.
Published: August 2019

This comment will concentrate exclusively on the direct investment aspects of the Logue &amp;amp; Willett-paper. Throughout the paper the authors make a number of theoretical and empirical statements applicable to the analysis of foreign investment. Their general concludion, albeit tentative, is that both theory and fact imply that a devaluation of the dollar will discourage U.S. direct investment outflows and encourage direct investment into the United States. Thus, on page 1 they point to the trade-off between production abroad by U.S. subsidiaries and exports, stating: "During the period of overvaluation of the dollar, U.S. investment abroad was artificially stimuatled in relation to exports where as foreign investment in the U.S was discouraged relative to exporting to the U.S." Later in section III.C they come ot the same conclusion for apparently different theoretical reasons, emphasizing the lower foreign currency price of existing American assets after the U.S. devaluation. Finally in section III.C They adduce empirical evidence to supprot the same overall result.
International Sources of Domestic Inflation
Authors: Berner Richard , Carr Peter , Enzler Jared J. , Lowrey Barbara R.
Published: August 2019

There is considerable controversy regarding the sources of the rapid rise in prices that has occured recently in the United States. Some attribute the currenct inflation to inaapropriate monetary or fiscal polices; that is, the inflation is seen as mainly the consequence of an excessively rapid expansion in the money supply and a large deficit in a federal budget. Another factor cited is the large increase in wages and other costs since the ending of controls. Finally, other point to the influence of extraordinary developments ouside the domestic economy, such as the quadrupling in the price of petroleum charged by oil-exporting countries, the depreciation of the dollar, the sale of large amounts of wheart to the Soviet Union and others, and the world-wide expansion in economic activity leading to sharpy rising prices for internationally-traded commodities.
Price Linkage in an Interdependent World Economy: Price Responses to Exchange Rate and Activity Changes
Authors: Kwack Sung Y.
Published: August 2019

The rate of inflation in major industrial countries has increased steadily from the late 1960's and spread dramatically throughout the world in the last several years. Given the persistence of inflation on worldwide basis, it is natural to seek for explanations of inflation from an international point of view. Consequently, the transmission of inflation from one country to another has received increasing attention. This paper analyzes the behavior of inflation in a country in a world of direct price linkages. Such as analysis is useful because it sheds some light on the question of how much the prices of other countries respond to a change in one country's exchange rate and unemployment rate.
Some Observations on the World-Wide Intensification of Inflation
Authors: Junz Helen B.
Published: August 2019

During 1974, the world economy suffered from virulent inflation coupled with a slowdown in economic growrth and an actual fall in output in the largest industrial economies. Thus, the question of how to bring their economies back to a stable growth-path with acceptable rates of price increase preoccupied most national authorities during the year and, in almost every case, authorities opted to deal first and foremost with the problem of inflation.
Dock Strike Adjustment Factors for Major Categories of U.S. Imports and Exports, 1958-1974
Authors: Isard Peter
Published: August 2019

During the past seventeen years, U.S. trade volumes have fluctuated significantly in response to seven major shutdowns of U.S. ports; see Table 1. Together these dock strikes have curtailed trade volumes in 9 out of 68 quarters, while promoting trade, in anticipation of or recovery from strikes, in approximately another 10 quarters. Thus, about 30 percent of the quarterly trade records since 1958 reflect the influence of strikes. Consequently, attempts to explain quarterly patterns of trade during this period must either discard a significant fraction of the sample or devise a suitable method for preventing dock strike fluctuations from biasing econometric estimates of the effects on trade volumes of income, prices and other explanatory variables.
Theory and Estimation of the Demand for Imports of Consumer Goods
Authors: Swamy P. A. V. B. , Isard Peter , Lowrey Barbara R.
Published: August 2019

Despite the abundance of literature on time-series estimation of impact demand relationships, several important theoretical problems have not treated adequately in major references on the subject, and empirical work in this area remains conceptually deficient. The purpose of this paper is to focus on specification problems that, to our knowledge, have not been adequately recognized, and to attempt to resolve a number of these. We present estimates of quarterly levels of U.S. imports for three types of consumer goods: foods, feeds and beverages from (1959 I through 1972 IV), consumer nondurables, excluding foods (1965 I - 1972 IV), and consumer durables, excluding automotive products (1961 I - 1972 IV).
The Allocation of "Oil Deficits"
Authors: Solomon Robert
Published: August 2019

The fourold rise in oil prices combined with the inability of OPEC countries to increase their imports of goods and services in the short run rapidly enough to match their enlarged export receipts results in a sizeable surplus on goods and services of OPEC with the rest of the world. This surplus, estimated at about $60 billion in 1974, can be reduced only by one or more of the following means: 1) a reduction in oil prices; 2) reduced demand for OPEC oil by importing countries; 3) increased imports of goods and services by OPEC countries.
Nash-Cournot Equilibrium for an Exhaustible Resource Like Oil
Authors: Salant Stephen W.
Published: August 2019

The theory of exhaustible resources is modified to take account of the industrial organization of the world oil industry. The oil cartel is viewed as unified enterprise, engaging in a non-cooperative game against firms in the non-cartel sector. Each of these firms in assumed to own an equal chare of the sector's oil; none, however, owns as much as the cartel. The Nash-Cournot equilibrium is examined. As teh number of non-cartel firms increases, they behave like competitive prices takers. The equilibrium converges to the standard "dominant firm model", adapted for exhaustible resources.
A Data Base Improvement for Analysis of U.S. Imports and Exports: Price Indices by End-Use, 1958: 1-1974:4
Authors: Kwack Sung Y.
Published: August 2019

Disaggregation by end-user categories is desirable for use in empirical studies of U.S. exports and imports. Value data for trade by end-use categories are readily available from 1967:1. Consequently, empirical studies frequently are faced with a problem of how to obtain end-use price indicies prior to 1967 and call for such prices indices. This note precents prices indices by end-use catagories over 1958:1-1974:4 calculated in a consistent way, thereby improving the data base for analyzing U.S. trade behavior.
The Analysis of Exchange Rate Movements: Neutrality Results and the Role of Expectations
Authors: Isard Peter , Porter Michael G.
Published: August 2019

Following a brief discussion of existing literature on the analysis of exchange rate movements (Section 1), this paper examines the conditions under which exchange rate movements have no effects on the real balance of trade in particular, and on the complete list of real economic variables in general (Section 2). Although these neutrality conditions do not hold in the world as we know it today, they do point to the types of institutional changes that would weaken the real impacts of devaluations over time (Section 3).
The Asian Dollar Market
Authors: Emery Robert F.
Published: August 2019

Since October 1968, the foreign and indigenous banks in Singapore have developed a market in Euro-dollars. Although referred to as the Asian dollar market, it is really an Asian-based market in Euro-dollars, there being no basic difference -- other than the geographical aspect -- between Euro-dollars and Asian dollars. Nevertheless, because the term "Asian dollar market" (ADM) is now widely used and is also helpful in denoting the geographical context of the market, it will be employed throughout this paper rather than such terms as "Asian currency markets," or "Asian-based Euro-dollars."
Hirshleifer on Speculation
Authors: Salant Stephen W.
Published: August 2019

In a recent article, Hirshleifer compares the views of speculation associated with the names Hicks and Keynes to the alternative views of Holbrook Working. According to the Hicks-Keynes school, differences in aversion to risk motivate speculation. In contract, Working is said to attribute speculation to differences among market participants in their estimates of the likelihood of events. In considering this dispute in a general equilibrium setting, where agents with risky endowments act optimally, Hirshleifer performs a valuable service. Before evaluating his conclusions, an overview must be breifly sketched of an environment and market situations which he considers.
Note on Key Currency Intervention Systems
Authors: Dooley Michael P.
Published: August 2019

One of the U.S. objectives for monetary reform during the C-20 negotiations was to insure that the dollar exchange rate has as much intramarginal flexibility as a maximum permitted other currencies in a system of fixed but adjustable parities. The supposed advantages of intarmarginal flexibility have been discussed at length elsewhere and will not be dealth with here. The major purpose of this note is to introduce a countervailing argument into the discussion.
Have Geometric Lag Hypothesis Outlived Their Time? Some Evidence in a Monte Carlo Framework
Authors: Wilson John F.
Published: August 2019

It is probably fair to say that there is today universal agreement that economic variables do not adjust instantaneously to their determinants. Full adjustment is in some sense distributed over time. A second proposition which would probably meet little opposition is that discerning the correct shape and length of an adjustment process is a very ticklish matter. Although the recent history of distributed lag estimation has witnessed great progress since the intitial work undertaken by Fisher and Tinbergen in the 1930's, a great deal remains to be done.
Linking to the MPS Price Sector to International Price Disturbances
Authors: Thurman Stephen S. , Kwack Sung Y.
Published: August 2019

A central feature in respecification of the price sector of the Federal Reserve's MPS model is the attempt to estimate the direct and indirect effects of external sources of domestic inflation on the U.S. economy and to include these effects systematically in the model's aggregate price-determining mechanism. The key assumptions underlying this attempt are that teh U.S. economy is open to externalluy originating price disturbances and that the U.S. price-determining process does not occur in isolation, but rather is included in a reverberation process of increasingly interdependent world price linkages.
Modeling the International Influences on the U.S. Economy: A Multi-Country Approach
Authors: Girton Lance , Roper Don E.
Published: August 2019

The monetary approach to the balance of payments has received considerable attention. However, most the empirical studies employ models of a small country with fixed exchange rates. Without relying on the small-country assumption, we derive a model to explain a measure of exchange market pressure that incorporates both exchange rate movements and official intervention. the models is used to analyze the post-war Canadian experience.
Asset Markets and Interest Rate Detemination in the Multi-Country Model
Authors: Carr Peter , Kwack Sung Y.
Published: August 2019

In this paper we describe in more detail the asset markets and other financial aspects of the multi-country model project that is being undertaken by the Quantitative Studies Section. The first section is devoted to an explanation of the monetary sector of the prototype country sub-model, which is where each country's short-term interest rate is determined. In this section we also describe how the long-term interest rate in each country is determined. This section is followed by another that specifies the financial linkages that connect the sub-models with each other. The next part of the paper deals with the determination of the three-month Eurodollar interest rate. We then discusss the considerations that are relevant in deciding whether the two sources of monetary base -- foreign and domestic assets held by central banks -- should be traded as endogenous variables. Finally, we descrive how the purchase and sale of foreign assets, i.e., foreign exchange intervention, by several central banks is accounted for in our model.
Price Determination in the Multi-Country Model
Authors: Howe Howard
Published: August 2019

The goal of this paper is to obtain consistent specifications for domestic, export, and import price equations for use in the multicountry model project being undertaken by Quantitative Studies Section. The multi-country model, described in [3], consists of small-scale macroeconomic sub-models for the United States, Canada, Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdon linked together to capture international economic and financial interactions. The domestic and export price equations are derived from the structure of the prototype country sub-model. The import price equation is developed as a weighted average of the appropriate exporting countries' export prices and exogenours price of primary products.