bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Simulation Research in Interchangeable Part Manufacturing
Authors: Pai Ashok R. , McRoberts Keith L.
Published: November 2008

Simulation is being used to attain a better understanding of many complex situations. In this analysis, GPSS/360 was employed as a simulation language to investigate the effects of operating policy guidelines and decision rules in the manufacture of component parts used interchangeably in the final product form. The analysis is developed on hypothetical data and interchangeable part mixture based on an actual manufacturing systems. A number of criterion measures are considered, and four policy decision rules are investigated.
A Comment on “Probability of Survival as an Investment Criterion” By Fred Hanssmann
Authors: Laughhunn D. J.
Published: November 2008

In a recent article of this journal, Hanssmann [Hanssmann, Fred. 1968. Probability of survival as an investment criterion. Management Sci. 15(1, September) 33–48.] proposed probability of survival as an investment planning criterion. An earlier paper by Roy [Roy, A. D. 1952. Safety first and the holding of assets. Econometrica (July) 431–439.] has shown that the normality assumption is not necessary in order to utilize probability of survival in investment planning and that a result identical and Hanssmann's is possible in the absence of any specific assumption concerning the form of the probability distributions involved. Hence, use of probability of survival as an investment planning criterion requires only a relatively weak assumption concerning probability distributions of portfolio returns, i.e., finite means and variances. There is no need to assume normality or, for that matter, any specific form for portfolio probability distributions.
Probabilistic Forecasting for Contractors
Authors: Kierulff H. E. , Robison D. E.
Published: November 2008

Firms that perform work on contract to others often estimate their sales by assigning a probability of award to each potential contract, finding the expected value of each contract and then summing these expected values. Our methodology provides a complete probability distribution around the company sales forecast mean with no further data input than that required to obtain the expected value. The full distribution more realistically portrays business prospects, and allows planners and decision makers to engage in more sophisticated probabilistic forecasting and alternatives analysis. The methodology has been programmed for the computer, and modified to allow for rapid and inexpensive calculation of both sales award and operating sales distributions for a large number of contracts.
A Heuristic Programming Solution to a Nonlinear Cutting Stock Problem
Authors: Haessler Robert W.
Published: November 2008

A heuristic procedure for scheduling production rolls of paper through a finishing operation to cut them down to finished roll sizes is described. The ratio of service time to interarrival time of production rolls at the initial cutting station is large so that insufficient time is available to set it up unless a minimum number of production rolls are to be processed in the same manner. Otherwise, some portion of each production roll must go through a reprocessing operation to complete the cutting of finished sizes. The objective is to minimize the cost of trim loss and reprocessing.

The procedure generates cutting patterns and usage levels sequentially until all the requirements are satisfied. At each step the search is dependent upon the characteristics of the unsatisfied requirements. A maximum of three solutions is generated for each problem. If none satisfies a predetermined aspiration level, the best of the three is chosen.

The procedure was evaluated by scheduling a specific paper production facility and observing the results for a set of 15 problems. For each problem, the best solution was recorded. The overall results from this set of problems were then compared to previously recorded results on problems solved manually. There was a 16% improvement in solution quality for the heuristic procedure relative to the manual method.
Précis—An Activity-Productivity Analysis of a Variable Task
Authors: Paul Robert J.
Published: November 2008

This activity-productivity study applied quantitative methods to a large random sample of the highest volume and lowest volume performers engaged in nonmanual, nonrepetitive activities. Its objective was to note how the groups differed in terms of time utilization. With further study this information could provide useful insights for analysis in the areas of selection, training, performance evaluation and personnel appraisal.
On Education in Management Science
Authors: Eilon Samuel
Published: November 2008

The process of establishing management studies as a recognized academic discipline has been fraught with numerous difficulties. Even in the US with its very long tradition of tolerating these studies in the academic environment, where expansion of university activity in this area has been quite phenomenal since World War II, the arguments as to the scope and content of management studies have not abated, and will probably continue to rage for many years to come. The plethora of programmes, even the variety of titles used to describe them, is evidence of the divergence of views held on this subject. There are programmes of business administration run by powerful and popular business schools, there are programmes in operational research, in management science, in industrial management, in industrial engineering—to mention just some of the prevalent titles. They all have their own philosophies, their own emphasis on what is regarded as a relevant range of subjects that students should cover in some depth if they aspire to practise in some aspect of management during their future careers.
Nonlinear Activity Analysis
Authors: Williams A. C.
Published: November 2008

From a narrow point of view, linear programming is a method for calculating optimal operations plans for various corporate activities. From a broader point of view, however, the theory of linear programming provides a basis for the study of the economics of corporate activity. See, e.g., [Baumol, W. S. 1961. Economic Theory and Operations Analysis. Prentice-Hall, Inc., Englewood Cliffs, N. J.] For example, by providing existence theorems it is possible in many instances to say whether a proposed operation is possible at all; by providing characterization theorems it is possible to identify which variables are important and which are not, and what their relationships must be for optimal operation. The case of nonlinear convex programming is similar. Narrowly viewed, it provides a basis for the calculation of optimal operations plans. Broadly viewed, the theory ought to provide an even broader insight into the economics of corporate activity, but until recently no really satisfactory mathematical theory has been available. The work of R. T. Rockafellar [Rockafellar, R. T. 1967. Convex programming and systems of elementary monotonic relations. J. Math. Anal. Appl. 19(3) 543–564; Rockafellar, R. T. 1967. Duality and stability in extremum problems involving convex functions. Pacific J. Math. 21(1) 167–187.] now appears to fill this need, and in this paper we begin the development of a more general theory of the economics of corporate activity, from the activity analysis [Koopmans, T. C. 1951. Analysis of production as an efficient combination of activities. T. C. Koopmans, ed. Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation. John Wiley and Sons, Inc., New York, 33–97.] point of view.
When a Queue Looks the Same to an Arriving Customer as to an Observer
Authors: Strauch Ralph E.
Published: November 2008

In a queue with a Poisson arrival distribution, the probability distribution state of the queue at any time is independent of whether or not an arrival occurs at that time. In particular, in a stationary queue with Poisson arrivals, the stationary distribution of the number of waiting customers in the queue at an arbitrary time is equal to the stationary distribution of the number of customers waiting in the queue when a new customer arrives.
Lagrangian Subgradients
Authors: Grinold Richard C.
Published: November 2008

There is a dual program linked with every nonlinear program. The dual objective function is called the Lagrangian; it is defined in terms of the original problem. This note presents a characterization of the Lagrangian subgradients under general conditions. The theorem follows from a result of Danskin [1] that can be used (see [2]) to characterize the Lagrangian directional derivatives. These characterizations are theoretically interesting and may be useful in computing optimal dual solutions. Rockafellar's outstanding book, [3], is used as a basic reference; it contains a wealth of background and historical information.
An r-Dimensional Quadratic Placement Algorithm
Authors: Hall Kenneth M.
Published: November 2008

In this paper the solution to the problem of placing n connected points (or nodes) in r-dimensional Euclidean space is given. The criterion for optimality is minimizing a weighted sum of squared distances between the points subject to quadratic constraints of the form X′X = 1, for each of the r unknown coordinate vectors. It is proved that the problem reduces to the minimization of a sum or r positive semi-definite quadratic forms which, under the quadratic constraints, reduces to the problem of finding r eigenvectors of a special “disconnection” matrix. It is shown, by example, how this can serve as a basis for cluster identification.
Notes—On a Selection Problem
Authors: Balinski M. L.
Published: November 2008

John Rhys [Rhys, J. 1970. Shared fixed cost and network flows. Management Sci. 17(3, November).], and then J. D. Murchland [Murchland, J. D. 1968. Rhys's combinatorial station selection problem. Report LBS-TNT-68, London Graduate School of Business Studies, Transport Network Theory Unit, June 10.], have discussed a model aimed at making an optimal selection in a particular situation having several applications. This note shows how this problem can be solved by identifying minimum cuts with optimal selection.
Notes—A Note on “Preferences, Summation, and Social Welfare Functions”
Authors: Williams Fred E.
Published: November 2008

A note on Fishburn, Peter C. 1969. Preferences, summation, and social welfare functions. Management Sci. 16(3, November) 179–186.
A Comment on the Analysis of Data Generated by Simulation Experiments
Authors: Naylor Thomas H. , Wonnacott Thomas H.
Published: November 2008

The purpose of this note is to suggest some improvements in current statistical analysis of computer-simulated data. To be concrete, we will take a recent paper by Roser T. Nelson [Nelson, Rosser T. 1967. Labor and machine limited production systems. Management Sci. 13(9, May) 648–671.] which appears in this journal as the vehicle for our comments.
Communications to the Editor—Comment on the Fractile Approach to Linear Programming under Risk
Authors: Hazell Peter B. R.
Published: November 2008

Sengupta and Portillo-Campbell have recently proposed a fractile decision criterion for risk situations as an alternative to the expected value and E-V criteria [Sengupta, J. K., J. H. Portillo-Campbell. 1970. A fractile approach to linear programming under risk. Management Sci. 16(5, January) 298–308.].

The fractile model seems to add little to the current literature on risk programming models under normality assumptions except to provide a direct solution procedure for identification of a specific solution in a Baumol efficient E-L set.
A Reply to: “Comment on the Fractile Approach to Linear Programming under risk”
Authors: Sengupta J. S.
Published: November 2008

A reply to Hazell, P. B. R. 1970. Communications to the editor—Comment on the fractile approach to linear programming under risk. Management Sci. 17(3, November) 236–237.
The “Investment '85” Model of Electricite de France
Authors: Bessière Francis
Published: November 2008

The purpose of the “Investment 85” model is to shed light on the evolution, up to 1985, of the optimal structure of electricity production equipment in France and to outline its geographical distribution by main regions. The model fits into the general pattern of theoretical studies which contribute to the preparation of investment decisions by Electricité de France. It was solved in 1965 and represents the status then current in the application of mathematical programming methods to investment decision problems faced by Electricité de France.

A detailed description of the model including the production and consumption features is provided. The various components of the total cost and the constraints are discussed. A treatment of the problem under uncertainty is given and the main results of the model are summarized. In addition the paper contains a historical review of the main stages in the development of the model and its solution.
Marketing Science—The Value of Promotion
Authors: Wallace James P.
Published: November 2008

For this issue, I am pleased to demonstrate that something is being done to measure the effectiveness of sales promotion efforts. The following paper, from James Wallace of General Motors, discusses a general methodology for the problem posed in this column in October 1969. It is similar to other studies I am familiar with, but it is unique in that its sponsor is willing to have it published. With apologies to Dr. Wallace, it has been slightly abridged to make it fit in the alloted space.
Précis—Management Decision Models and Computers
Authors: Kahl Alfred L.
Published: November 2008

This expository paper on the use of computers for management decision-making describes how decision models are created and used and points out some of the limitations of both models and computers. It seeks to help remove the inhibitions which some managers still have about computer assistance for top management decision-making problems. Most computers are now being used for routine cost reducing applications, but they instead should be used for complex management decision-making to enhance the profitability of the firm.
A Dual Generalized Upper Bounding Technique
Authors: Grigoriadis Michael D.
Published: November 2008

A Generalized Upper Bounding technique, similar to that introduced by Dantzig and Van Slyke [Dantzig, G. B., Van Slyke, R. M., 1967. Generalized upper bounding techniques. Journal of Computer and System Sciences. Vol. 1 pp. 213–226.], for solving large linear programs “with m + L equations (m ≪ L), L of which have the property that each variable has at most one nonzero coefficient in them” is offered. The algorithm is a variant of the dual simplex method, uses a working basis of order m and allows implementation of various pivoting strategies. The necessary modifications to the algorithm for handling bounded variables are also described.
A Direct Search Method to Locate Negative Cycles in a Graph
Authors: Florian M. , Robert P.
Published: November 2008

A direct search method for locating and tracing negative cycles in a graph is developed based on a property of real, finite sequences. The efficiency of the method and its application for computing minimum cost flows is tested by applying it to solve a series of assignment problems.
Three Asset Cash Balance and Dynamic Portfolio Problems
Authors: Eppen Gary D. , Fama Eugene F.
Published: November 2008

This paper describes the form of the optimal operating policy for a three asset cash balance problem in which (1) holding and penalty costs are proportional to the level of the cash balance, (2) the costs incurred in transferring funds between cash and earning assets are proportional to the amount of funds transferred, and (3) inflows and outflows of cash are to some extent random. There are assumed to be two earning assets, called “bonds” and “stock,” that can be used to change the level of cash. “Stock” assets are the major source of the firm's earnings, and they are assumed to have higher expected returns per period than bonds but also to have higher transactions costs. The major concern, then, is with how “bonds” should be used as a buffer against random fluctuations in the cash account.
Admissible Decision Rules for the E-Model of Chance-Constrained Programming
Authors: Eisner Mark J. , Kaplan Robert S. , Soden John V.
Published: November 2008

This paper is concerned with characterizing decision rules for the sequential E-model of chance-constrained programming. A key feature of our characterization will be a detailed discussion of various interpretations of the probability operator in the chance constraints.

Specifically we define two new classes of decision rules by exhibiting those sets of constraints which locally support the corresponding probability requirements. The question of how the probabilistic constraints for future periods are affected by previous decisions and realizations of the random variables is considered in detail.

Since we are primarily concerned with the feasibility of decision rules, we deal mainly with the constraints of the model. The procedure for selecting the optimum rule from among a particular class of feasible rules depends on the objective function and is briefly discussed in the final section along with some implications concerning the form of the optimum rule.

The application of our proposed rules to a two-period example previously appearing in the literature concludes the paper.
Communications to the Editor—Models of Fact and Laws of Behavior
Authors: Charnes A. , Cooper W. W. , DeVoe J. D. , Learner D. B.
Published: November 2008

The querulous and exaggerated tones which seem to attend so many contemporary activities have now been permitted an entrance to the pages of Management Science where they are amply represented in the article published by A. S. C. Ehrenberg (“Models of Fact: Examples from Marketing,” Management Science Vol 16, No. 7 (March 1970), pp. 435–445.). The tone of Ehrenberg's article provides a warning that should naturally make anyone reluctant to attempt to reply to any of his criticisms or to question any of his claims. Some possibility for a productive response may be available, however, if one avoids a direct reply to Ehrenberg's claims and criticisms in order to respond by indicating possibilities and considerations other than those which Ehrenberg allows for in modeling, at least in management science.
Communications to the Editor—Tempus Fidgets: The Reference Business
Authors: Ehrenberg A. S. C.
Published: November 2008

In their comments on “Models of Fact”, Charnes, Cooper, DeVoe and Learner [Charnes, A., W. W. Cooper, J. K. DeVoe, D. B. Learner. 1971. Models of fact and laws of behaviour. Management Sci. 17 367–369.] state that they will avoid a direct reply to my claims and criticisms. In following this precedent, I remark briefly on the pertinent use of references, an important matter in our work.
Précis—Capital Budgeting/Project Selection by Mathematical Programming: An Annotated Bibliography
Authors: Larson Roy B.
Published: November 2008

A comprehensive bibliography on the application of mathematical programming to the capital budgeting/project selection problem is presented. Over 150 items are cited with a brief summary given of the relevant contents of each item.
Management Information Systems: The Challenge to Rationality and Emotionality
Authors: Argyris Chris
Published: November 2008

If management information systems achieve their designers' highest levels of aspiration, they will tend to create conditions where executives will experience (1) reduction of space of free movement, (2) psychological failure and double bind, (3) leadership based more on competence than formal power, and (4) decreased feelings of essentiality. These experiences will tend to create genuine resistance to MIS. MIS specialists, in turn, are not presently equipped to cope with the emotional problems caused by their systems. They react over rationally, which is an emotional response, and have difficulty in coping with their own and the executives' feelings and behavior.
Work Sampling in Financial Management—Cost Determination in Post Office Department
Authors: Mandel B. J.
Published: November 2008

Work Sampling has been described by some authorities as the best and most objective method of measuring the time and cost of performing the various functions of complex organizations for use in management, budgeting and setting performance standards. Yet its use for these purposes has been quite limited. This paper is designed to encourage further use of Work Sampling. It describes what is probably the largest continuing application of Work Sampling in the world, namely, that made by the Post Office Department. About 4.5 million observations are made during a year at randomly selected instants of time to estimate the cost of the in-office activities and over 200,000 employees participate each year.

The paper describes the basic objectives served by the application, the size and composition of the universe of interest, the methods of sampling, the sample size used, the estimation procedure, the methods of measuring sampling variation and controlling the quality of the information. In addition, a few areas of research to improve the sample design are described.

The Post Office Department needs to know the cost it incurs to handle and deliver the mail in each class (e.g., first class and air mail) in order to compare it with the corresponding postage or other revenue earned by class. This information is needed primarily to recommend postal rate changes to Congress. While the total cost of postal activities currently amounts to about $7 billion a year, a first step taken in estimating the cost of each class by probability sampling deals with the in-office costs. This cost currently amounts to about $4 billion a year. Later probability sampling applications will be extended to cover out-of-office and other postal costs.

A sophisticated three-stage sample design was adopted. First, a stratified random sample of 500 post offices was selected. Stratification was based on size of office. Then, a digital one percent sample of employees in these offices was selected to participate each week. Finally, the work which the selected employees are performing is observed at four randomly chosen instants of time during their 8-hour work day. Thus, each employee is generally work-sampled at 20 instances a week and a total of about 4.5 million readings are made annually.

A quality control type of edit and control system has been established to detect and correct field reporting errors, thus helping to obtain high quality of results.
Mathematical Models for Public Utility Rate Revisions
Authors: Liittschwager John M.
Published: November 2008

This paper reports on studies of mathematical models pertaining to public utility customer usage and rate revisions. An analytic treatment of the rate revision problem is presented; a report is then given of experimental investigations involving the use of the Gamma, Lognormal and Weibull distributions as models of customer usage under public utility rates.
Letters to the Editor
Authors: Haberstroh Chadwick J.
Published: November 2008

Comments about the guest editorial from Erich Fromm printed in August 1970 issue of Management Science.
Minimax Policies for Selling an Asset and Dollar Averaging
Authors: Pye Gordon
Published: November 2008

The results of this paper fall into two areas. First, it is shown that the conventional wisdom of dollar averaging is related to hedging against, large regrets rather than unfavorable outcomes. Suppose that a given sum of dollars is to be irreversibly converted into stock within a given number of periods. Suppose that the share price of dollars follows an arithmetic random walk. It is shown that dollar averaging is a nonsequential minimax strategy, if the largest possible price increase in each period is equal to the largest possible decrease. On the other hand, it is shown that dollar averaging cannot be a nonsequential expected utility maximizing strategy for any strictly concave utility function and any arithmetic random walk. Second, sequential minimax strategies are examined. Here the analysis may be viewed as an extension of the literature on the optimal time to sell an asset or the optimal stopping problem. The minimax sequential strategy is shown to be of the following form. At any time there exists a critical value which depends only on n, the difference between the maximum price since conversions began and the current price. Funds held in excess of this value are converted into stock, otherwise no funds are converted. The critical values are shown to be decreasing functions of n. When the share price of dollars rises (i.e., stock prices fall) few funds are converted while decreases produce large conversions. These results seem to correspond to the second thoughts of those, embarking on nonsequential policies of the dollar averaging type. Buying and selling minimax policies are shown to be symmetric. Sequential minimaxing will tend to have a reinforcing effect on price movements.
A Differential Game in Economics
Authors: Case James
Published: November 2008

The problem of profit maximization for two firms manufacturing the same commodity is cast as a differential game. The qualitative aspects of the equilibrium point solution of the game are then discussed with the aid of some results on ordinary differential equations.
Optimal Entrepreneurial Decisions in a Completely Stochastic Environment
Authors: Hakansson Nils H.
Published: November 2008

This paper develops a normative model of the entrepreneur's decision problem in which the following elements are stochastic: the entrepreneur's preferences, his lifetime, the returns from investments, and the process obeyed by the interest rate. Furthermore, the entrepreneur's preferences are assumed to be sensitive to the opportunities facing him at each decision point as well as other environmental factors.

At each decision point the entrepreneur must decide how to allocate his resources between consumption, life insurance, various investment opportunities, and lending/borrowing. His objective is postulated to be the maximization of expected utility from consumption as long as he lives and from the bequest left upon his death.

Optimal decision functions are obtained in closed form for a class of utility functions; their properties are examined and compared to those of the optimal strategies of less general models.
Transforming Stochastic Dynamic Programming Problems into Nonlinear Programs
Authors: Ziemba William T.
Published: November 2008

This paper investigates conditions under which stochastic dynamic programs easily reduce to static deterministic programs. The conditions, though strict, are still rich enough to aid in the solution of a number of practical problems.
Automating Judgmental Decision Making for a Serious Medical Problem
Authors: Betaque Norman E. , Gorry G. Anthony
Published: November 2008

A decision theory model of the diagnosis and treatment of a serious medical condition, acute renal failure, has been implemented as part of a study of automated judgmental decision-making.

An interactive diagnostic computer program was used to test the model. This program employs formal decision procedures and the subjective assessment of likelihoods and preferences of experts to analyze the diagnostic/treatment problem.

The program's success in duplicating the decisions of expert clinicians in about 90 per cent of the cases used indicates that the method of analysis is not only a convenient structure for theoretically describing diagnosis and treatment, but that it is potentially a practical way of analyzing such decision problems.
Computing Expected Values of Customer Requests Backordered
Authors: Kaplan Alan J.
Published: November 2008

Suppose that the stockout cost for a supplier is a function of the number of customer requests backordered, each request possibly being for several units of stock of a product. The problem arises of computing the expected number of customer requests backordered. when techniques are available for computing the expected number of units backordered. A simple conversion factor is desirable. Based on a formal analysis, the conversion factor 1/E(X) is recommended where E(X) is average size of a customer request. This conclusion is contrary to that reached in previously published research.

Analysis is extended to the case where backorder cost is time weighted; i.e., backordered sales are not lost, and the cost of a backorder depends on the time elapsing before the customer request is finally satisfied.
Communications to the Editor—On Zangwill's Necessary and Sufficient Conditions for Convergence
Authors: Jacobsen Stephen
Published: November 2008

In [Zangwill, W. I. 1969. Convergence conditions for nonlinear programming algorithms. Management Sci. 16(1, September).] Zangwill states conditions which are necessary and sufficient for convergence of a nonlinear programming algorithm. However, the conditions offered merely comprise a restatement of Zangwill's definition of convergence, and, as such, their potential usefulness is limited.
Communications to the Editor—A Communication on Adaptive Smoothing using Evolutionary Spectra
Authors: Chandmal Asit , Jayaraj C.
Published: November 2008

In a recent article [Rao, A. G., A. Shapiro. 1970. Adaptive smoothing using evolutionary spectra. Management Sci. 17(3) 208–218.] Ambar G. Rao and Arthur Shapiro have proposed a scheme for adaptive smoothing using evolutionary spectra. As the authors admit, this technique demands considerable computer storage and computer time due to the increased number of additions, multiplications and exponentiations when compared to the adaptive smoothing technique proposed by Trigg and Leach [Trigg, D. W., A. G. Leach. 1967. Exponential smoothing with an adaptive response rate. O. R. Quart. 18(1) 53–59.].
Deterministic Production Planning with Concave Costs and Capacity Constraints
Authors: Florian Michael , Klein Morton
Published: November 2008

A multi-period single commodity production planning problem is studied in which known requirements have to be satisfied. The model differs from earlier well-known studies involving concave cost functions in the introduction of production capacity constraints. The structure of an optimal solution is characterized and then used in a simple dynamic programming algorithm for problems in which the capacities are the same in every period. Both the nonbacklog and backlog allowed cases are considered.
On Time Flow Mechanisms for Discrete System Simulation
Authors: Nance Richard K.
Published: November 2008

Previous concepts of time flow mechanisms are inadequate for categorizing or describing the algorithms for time flow which may prove most efficient for a particular systems application. The work of Kiviat [6] provides a more meaningful categorization. The patrolling repairman problem serves as an example of the ambiguity and inconsistency in the use of fixed time and next-event classification.

Three algorithms for time flow in the patrolling model are offered. Theoretical development is provided for the two more sophisticated algorithms—the variable increment (VIA) and the minimum increment comparison (MICA). Comparison of execution times for the three algorithms shows the constant increment (CI) to be generally more efficient.

The concept of a continuum of algorithms for representing the passage of time is advanced. Fixed time methods with Δt considered a “clock tick” define one end of the continuum, and next-event methods utilizing strictly the push down/pop up stack approach define the other. Between these two extremes lie other algorithms possessing characteristics of both but which may prove more advantageous for any specific application of discrete system simulation.
A Note on the Location of Depots
Authors: Snyder Ralph D.
Published: November 2008

Crow-fly distance between the depot and delivery points is usually used when considering the problem of locating a depot. Instead, we assume that vans can only travel along a rectangular system of roads. This leads us to a much simpler solution.
A Planning Model for Construction Minerals
Authors: Bishko Donald , Wallace William A.
Published: November 2008

The problem of allocating construction minerals is rarely considered by those who plan the destiny of our urban environment. The purpose of this research is: (1) to delineate in dollar terms the magnitude of the result of not planning for the consumption of construction minerals, and (2) to develop a computer simulation model which will provide planners with an indication of the effects of decisions. affecting these resources.

Construction mineral aggregates (sand, gravel, and crushed stone) are among the earth's most plentiful, yet are rapidly being rendered inaccessible in those areas which need them most. They are characterized by a low intrinsic value, a high bulk, and a delivered price which is very sensitive to the transportation cost associated with moving them from the quarries to their points of demand, It is ironic that the cities which create the demands for mineral aggregates are, at the same time, preventing their extraction by being built over them or by legally limiting their use through zoning restrictions.

The simulation model which has been developed enables the planner to investigate the effects of various zoning strategies. It allows him to investigate the results of limiting individual operations and to force the removal of material from a site before it is covered by urban development. It does not attempt to search for decisions which yield “optimal” solutions; rather it indicates the results, over a (simulated) time period, of various planning strategies, thus providing the planner with greater insight into the effects of the decisions that he alone can make.
A Model for Aggregate Financial Planning
Authors: Krouse Clement G.
Published: November 2008

Financial planning in the firm is a dynamic process requiring that a variety of liquidity, profitability, capital structure, growth and stability variables be simultaneously considered. In recent years widespread attention has been given the time-wise interdependencies involved, but the focus has been conceptual and not directed to yield an implementable model. In the present paper a workable, multi-stage planning model is developed by combining these developments in corporate finance with techniques from optimal systems control. The firm is viewed as attempting to optimize a multiple-objective criterion of time-dated variables involving both short-and long-term financial goals. Random elements are considered to be part of the process by which decisions affect the firm's financial state and an optimal decision strategy developed for an important first-approximation model. The paper concentrates on the general model structure and specific means for implementation; rigorous mathematical analysis is suppressed. An illustrative application is presented and potential uses discussed.
An Optimization Approach to Freight Car Allocation Under Time-Mileage Per Diem Rental Rates
Authors: Allman William P.
Published: November 2008

The paper proposes the use of linear programming to “solve” a specific freight car allocation situation wherein a choice of freight cars is available for shipper shipments, and the railroad's car allocation objective is to maximize the expression (freight car rental receivables-freight car rental payables). The freight car rental payment structure which is applicable is that of “time-mileage per diem” rates proposed in the United States by the Interstate Commerce Commission. The paper first describes the problem and its background, and then a model and various extensions are formulated. An example illustrates how costly to a railroad the difference between good and bad car allocation may be. Although the proposed linear programming approach may be manually tractable for small volume car allocation situations, the paper concludes that in most car allocation situations, the approach requires a computerized data base with a “real-time” information and communications system which includes order entry, car rental, routing-distance, and train travel time and yard delay time information.
Optimal Time-Cost Trade-Offs in GERT Networks
Authors: Arisawa S. , Elmaghraby S. E.
Published: November 2008

Optimal time-cost trade-offs in deterministic networks of the CPM-type have been neatly resolved by Fulkerson. In the case of GERT-type networks, the problem is complicated by the randomness in the duration of the activity and in the likelihood of its existence. Assuming linear relationships between additional investments and expected duration and additional cost, a model is formulated in which we seek the maximization of the marginal reduction in duration per unit of investment. This, in turn, leads to a fractional linear program whose solution is obtained easily.
A Note on Verification of Computer Simulation Models
Authors: Aigner Dennis J.
Published: November 2008

This paper establishes an argument that questions the validity of one “test” of goodness-of-fit for the simulated time path of a single endogenous variable in a simultaneous, perhaps dynamic, econometric model. The test was suggested by Cyert and Cohen, and consists of two parts, within the context of a regression of the actual series on the generated series: a test that the intercept of this regression differs significantly from zero and a test that the slope of this regression differs significantly from one.

Presumably, the intuition underlying the test is that if the simulation model is a good one this regression should be a 45° line through the origin. The paper's primary purpose is to demonstrate that this intuition is wrong in general for the case of “stochastic simulation.”
A Bayesian Approach to Quality Control
Authors: Carter Phillip L.
Published: November 2008

The general problem of process control is one of maintaining a production process in such a state that the output from the process conforms to design specifications. As the process operates it will be subject to changes which cause the quality of the output to deteriorate. Some amount of deterioration can be tolerated but at some point it becomes less costly to stop and overhaul the process. The problem of establishing control procedures to minimize long-run expected costs has been approached by several researchers using Bayesian decision theory. However, the models used by these researchers have been incomplete. The purpose of this paper is to extend the Bayesian approach to include consideration of the sample size and the sampling interval in the design of the control procedure. Using dynamic programming the analysis will show how the optimal time between samples and the optimal sample size can be found and how the optimal decision can be made based on the outcome of the sample.
Sequential Optimization of Multimodal Discrete Function with Bounded Rate of Change
Authors: Shubert Bruno O.
Published: November 2008

In this paper a search scheme for finding the maximum of a discrete objective function of several variables is proposed. The scheme is sequential and optimal in the sense that it determines the maximum with minimum number of measurements of the function. Unlike other sequential search techniques with this property the scheme places no condition on the number of possible maxima of the objective function. Instead it requires that some bounds on the rate of change of the function per each variable be known. The points at which measurements of the value of the objective function are to be taken are determined successively by maximization of an auxiliary function updated after each measurement. The algorithm is described in detail, and illustrated by two simple examples.
A Comment on a Paper of Maxwell
Authors: Sidney Jeffrey B.
Published: November 2008

In his paper “On Sequencing n Jobs on One Machine to Minimize the Number of Late Jobs,” [Maxwell, W. L. 1970. On sequencing n jobs on one machine to minimize the number of late jobs. Management Sci. 16(5, January).], Maxwell presents an integer programming formulation (which we shall call P) of a one-machine job-shop problem, and attempts to prove the validity of Moore's optimal algorithm [Moore, J. M. 1908. An n job, one machine sequencing algorithm for minimizing the number of late jobs. Management Sci. 15(1, September).] by applying cutting plane constraints to the program P. Unfortunately, Maxwell's proof is incorrect. In this brief note, we shall locate Maxwell's error, and present an example, which casts doubt on the possibility of minor modifications being sufficient to correct the proof. We shall adopt much of the notation of Maxwell's paper.
Erratum: Deterministic Production Planning with Concave Costs and Capacity Constraints
Authors: Florian Michael , Klein Morton
Published: November 2008

Erratum to authors' paper (Florian M., M. Klein. 1971. Deterministic production planning with concave costs and capacity constraints. Management Sci. 18 (1, September) 12–20.
The Carolina Population Center Family Planning Administrator Training Game
Authors: Moreland R. Scott , Chu Kong , Jacobson Edward , Naylor Thomas H.
Published: November 2008

This role-playing game for family planning administrators is a technique for the learning of effective planning and rational allocation of economic resources of population control programs. Through the use of electronic data processing, the game provides valuable experience in the sort of decision making that public health officials seldom encounter before going into the field. The game simulates an environment in which the family planning administrator' must make his allocation decisions and from which he receives feedback in the form of demographic results. The game may be made to react to simulate a particular country if the game leader has access to the relevant data, thus providing preparation for decisions in the field.
The Resolution of Investment Uncertainty Through Time
Authors: Bierman Harold , Hausman Warren H.
Published: November 2008

Investments in operating assets with identical expected discounted return and identical risk characteristics (i.e., variances and higher moments) when measured at the outset may have significantly different patterns of uncertainty resolution over their lives. The concept of uncertainty resolution, although ambiguous, is a potentially important characteristic of an investment alternative. This paper explores the usefulness and limitations of the concept of uncertainty resolution in the evaluation of both single risky investments and in portfolios of risky investments. In cases where future investment opportunities are completely known the concept does not seem useful; however, in a more realistic setting where future investment alternatives are ill defined at present, the concept may prove useful. Further research is needed to explore fully the questions raised here.
Reward Functions to Reinforce a Goal-Based Management Process
Authors: Peters Donald H.
Published: November 2008

A mathematical model for an incentive system is presented for use within an organization which has a single criterion measure and which sets goals for performance in advance. This model is examined and assumptions stated concerning what restrictions are necessary to reinforce “desired” behavior. With this general model a series of specific examples is derived and evaluated. The implementation of the most obviously practicable example is discussed. Directions for research with such incentives are suggested.
An Efficient Branch and Bound Algorithm for the Warehouse Location Problem
Authors: Khumawala Basheer M.
Published: November 2008

This paper introduces an efficient branch and bound algorithm for a special class of mixed integer programming problems called the warehouse location problem. A set of branching decision rules is proposed for selecting warehouses to be constrained open and closed from any node of the branch and bound tree. These rules are tested for their efficiency in reducing computation times and storage requirements to reach optimal solutions. An improved method of solving the linear programming problems at the nodes which substantially reduces the computations is also introduced in this paper.
Notes—An Index of Health: An Application in Accidents
Authors: Krall John Morton
Published: November 2008

This paper presents an index of health which is based on a multiple decrement model. The index is denned in terms of costs and benefits which are weighted sums of losses and gains experienced in a population due to poor or good health. The index of health is then applied to a farm accident problem. The purpose of the index is to serve as an aid to administrators in making decisions concerning which types of accidents should receive larger resource allocations in the effort toward elimination.
A Model for National Development
Authors: Brotchie J. F. , Toakley A. R. , Sharpe R.
Published: November 2008

In this paper a mathematical model is presented for allocation of activities to zones or to resources at the national or regional level. The model is intended for use within the framework of the systems approach for engineering and economic planning.

The model is basically a quadratic programming model and allocates activities to zones in space and time such that a merit function is maximized. The merit includes the benefits less costs of establishing and operating the activities in the zones plus the benefits less costs of interactions between activities along paths between zones.

The activities may be the various industries, primary or secondary, water storage and utilization, power generation, transportation terminals and urban development. The interactions may comprise flows of people, goods, materials, services, information, pollution, and the extent to which one activity stimulates or counteracts another including economy of scale and scarce resource effects. The zones may be considered at a hierarchy of levels such as global, national, regional, subregional, urban and even particular project sites. The paths are the vehicular transportation networks, pipes and wire networks.

The model has broad application to allocation problems including allocation of activities to zones, resources to activities, and elements to sets for the purpose of grouping and structuring decisions and information flows. It is currently being applied to the macro planning of an urban region (Melbourne), to industrial and building layouts, grouping of elements, and scheduling problems.
The Economics of Manpower Pooling
Authors: Conrath David W. , Hamilton William F.
Published: November 2008

Formal manpower planning has received increasing attention in recent years. This paper considers the problem of establishing a manpower policy for defined skill categories in the face of uncertain demands. At one extreme an organization might hire and fire personnel as the demand for their services varies over time. Alternatively, the work force might be held constant at a predetermined level and supplemented with overtime or subcontracting when manpower demand exceeds the supply. Models representing these two strategies are developed and compared. Examples are presented to illustrate their economic implications, and several simple rules of thumb are derived to guide manpower policy decisions.