bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
An extension of SURFER to study tipping cascades on multiple time scales
Authors: Couplet Victor , Martínez Montero Marina , Crucifix Michel
Published: February 2023

Tipping cascades are series of tipping events in the Earth system where transitions in one subsystem can trigger further transitions in other subsystems. In previous work, we demonstrated that the near-linear relationship predicted by GCMs between global temperature and cumulative greenhouse gas emissions for the next century can break up at millennial time scales due to cascades involving slower tipping elements such as the ice sheets. This means that we must consider tipping cascades also from a long-term perspective. Subsequently, we need fast models that encode the relevant physical processes and that we can calibrate on more comprehensive models. In this context, we present an extension of the SURFER model (Martínez Montero et al. 2022) that incorporates sediments and weathering feedbacks in the carbon cycle submodel (Archer et al. 2009), and an additional set of coupled tipping elements. This model may be used both as a surrogate for more computationally expensive models, for example in the context of decision-making problems, and as an exploratory tool to investigate the climate response's sensitivity to specific processes on long-time scales.Archer, D. et al. (2009). “Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide”.en. In : Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 37.1, p. 117-134. DOI : 10.1146/annurev.earth.031208.100206.Martínez Montero, M. et al. (2022). “SURFER v2.0 : a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise”. en. In : Geoscientific Model Development 15.21, p. 8059-8084. DOI : 10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022.
Towards the development of an AI-based early warning system: a deep learning approach to bias correct and downscale seasonal climate forecasts
Authors: Heidari Fatemeh , Lin Qing , Espitia Sarmiento Edgar Fabián , Toreti Andrea , Xoplaki Elena
Published: February 2023

Early warning systems protect and support lives, jobs, land and infrastructure. DAKI-FWS, a German national project, aims at developing an early warning system to protect the German society and economy against extreme weather and climate events such as floods, droughts and heatwaves. With a seasonal temporal horizon, DAKI-FWS requires high resolution and bias corrected seasonal forecast of daily minimum and maximum temperatures, daily precipitation and wind speed. To derive such information, we have developed a deep neural network (DNN) approach to downscale and bias correct coarse resolution seasonal forecast ensembles on a 1 degree grid to a 1 arc minute grid.The proposed DNN approach is here analyzed and compared with other machine learning approaches. Results show that such a deep learning technique can generate realistic, temporally consistent, and high-resolution climate information. The statistical and physical properties of the generated ensembles are analyzed using spatial correlation, cross validation and SVD. The DNN predicts extreme values that are very close to the observed values while preserving the physical relationships in the system as well as the trends in the variables.
The influence of extreme drought conditions on spatial patterns of stratification and mixing in a dynamic salt wedge estuary
Authors: Geraeds Marlein , Pietrzak Julie , Verlaan Martin , Katsman Caroline
Published: February 2023

Under the influence of climate change, estuaries around the world are increasingly exposed to more extreme weather conditions. In recent years droughts specifically have been occurring more frequently and for prolonged periods. During a period of drought, salt intrusion is exacerbated, impacting the availability and quality of water resources and the estuarine ecosystem. As the impacts of droughts can be severe, assessment of droughts and their influence on the estuarine system is of great importance.Using a high-resolution 3D coupled ocean-delta model we investigate the influence of the record-breaking European drought of the summer of 2022 on the Rhine-Meuse Delta and compare this to the estuarine response under average discharge conditions, putting the drought’s influence into perspective. Spatial patterns of stratification, mixing, and straining and their evolution throughout the drought period are studied by a salinity variance analysis. The progression of the salt wedge and retreat of the tidal plume fronts are examined and related to the changing strength of the individual estuarine processes influencing stratification. We show that as the tidal plume fronts retreat during the drought, we see a corresponding change in the structure of the salt wedge, demonstrating the importance of the coupling between the tidal plume fronts and the estuarine dynamics.
Patterns of PBL hight during 1989-2019 over Romania, Moldavia Region using ERA5 data and correlation with NAO index.
Authors: Cosmina Apetroaie , Diana-Corina Bostan , Adrian Timofte , Ingrid-Mihaela Miclăuș , Marius-Mihai Cazacu
Published: February 2023

The evolution of the Planetary Boundary Layer Height (PBLH) is a very important meteorological parameter because most of the population carries out their socio-economic activities inside this layer and because it has a significant impact on weather events and air quality. This parameter is influenced by energy and mass exchanges between the land surface and the atmosphere. In our study, hourly PBLH data were used over a period of 30 years (1989-2018), for the warm season (May, June, July, August and September). The data we used comes from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) database, ERA5. By means of Open GrADS (The Grid Analysis and Display System), the PBLH deviations were graphically represented and interpreted. On the other hand, the NAO (The North Atlantic Oscillation) has influences over the climate variability and weather worldwide. It is well known that NAO exhibits considerable variability throughout a season and during a year, as well, and prolonged periods (for a few months) of both positive and negative phases of the pattern are ordinary. Both the PBLH variations and the NAO index can have an impact on the weather and climate conditions. In this study we will present the patterns of PBLH during 1989-2019 and correlations between the NAO index and the variability of the monthly summer PBLH in Moldavia Region, Romania.
The Long Road to Updating Asbestos in Talc Analytical Testing Protocols
Authors: Fitzgerald Sean
Published: February 2023

The relationship between the asbestos-forming minerals and talc has been well recognized in the mineralogic community for over 150 years. Concern over the potential for asbestos in talc products rose close on the heels of the first testing proving negative human health effects of asbestos exposure, with asbestos being found in consumer talcum products in the 60s, 70s, and sporadically throughout the last 50 years, generally ignored as an inconvenient truth. Unfortunately, we were never able to codify a method to assure that asbestos fibers, that causation experts inform us poses a real danger, are absent from talc and talc-based products. Although slowed through the pandemic, reactions to relatively recent findings of asbestos in talc and talcum-based products have blossomed into an apparent blitz of new information and political saber-rattling, including special meetings sponsored by regulatory bodies such as the FDA, congressional sub-committee meetings in Washington, DC, and even international government meetings and forums throughout Europe and beyond. Partly as a result of the USA pushing forward with thousands of legal actions, testing in the United States of talc-containing cosmetics has led the charge through public outcry toward revision of analytical standards. This paper will outline this historical trail, which has recently come to a significant milestone. In a new law signed by President Biden that went into effect January: The Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023, mandates that the US FDA must promulgate regulations that establish and require standardized testing methods to be used to detect asbestos in talc -containing cosmetics, no later than one year after enactment (by end of calendar year 2023). How we have historically tested talc for asbestos and latest methods will be discussed. Along with more familiar air, dust, water, and bulk methods, more arcane techniques such as Addison-Davies reduction and Blount liquid separation (HLS) shall be discussed as to their effectiveness to accurately determine tremolite-actinolite, anthophyllite, other amphiboles, and serpentine asbestos occurrence in sheet silicate mineral resources such as talc.
Understanding outliers in thermochronological anomalies in the Swiss Subalpine Molasse and how they are linked to geological uncertainty
Authors: Ziegler Josefine , Brisson Sofia , Wellmann Florian , von Hagke Christoph
Published: February 2023

Thermochronological data and kinematic models are often combined to retrace exhumation, cooling or fault activity. However, structural uncertainty is often neglected in thermokinematic models, which can lead to bias when interpreting data. Here we aim to test the influence of structural uncertainty on the interpretation of low-temperature thermochronological data in Mount Rigi in the Subalpine Molasse, a key region in the Swiss foreland fold-thrust belt of the European Alps. The region has been incorporated into the Alpine orogenic wedge in the Miocene, which led to the development of a triangle zone at the leading edge of deformation. An extensive low-temperature thermochronological data set exists, including apatite fission track as well as apatite (U-Th)/He data, which contains outliers not easily to be explained with the existing kinematic models.To diminish bias in the thermokinematic model we first estimated the geological uncertainty by computing and comparing 1000 stochastically generated 3D implicit geometric models, varied within an assigned uncertainty range assigned to geological input parameters. Model generation is performed with the stochastic geological modeling engine implemented in the Python package GemPy. In a second step a kinematic model was created which was altered in areas of high uncertainty found in the first step. With this setup, minimum and maximum values of cooling associated with shortening within the fold-thrust belt can be determined. The remaining cooling signal (if present) must hence be associated with other drivers, such as erosion caused by drainage reorganization, or uplift and erosion due to deep seated processes. Additionally, hydrothermal fluids could be held responsible for explaining individual data points. With this research, we hope to give new insights into the temporal evolution of heat flow in foreland basins and show how including geological uncertainty can lead to better constrained time-temperature histories.
Observations by Parker Solar Probe of a 3He-rich Solar Energetic Particle Event at 14 RS
Authors: Cohen Christina ,   ISOIS/FIELDS/SWEAP/WISPR study team
Published: February 2023

Just after orbit 12 closest approach, on 2 June 2022 at a distance of 14 RS, the Integrated Science Investigation of the Sun (ISʘIS) observed a 3He-rich solar energetic particle (SEP) event.  The event was associated with an active region just over the east limb (as viewed from Earth), which erupted with an occulted C1.2 class x-ray flare and a coronal mass ejection (CME) traveling ~350 km/s.  PSP observed a type III radio burst associated with the flare, followed by a type III storm.  After the initial dispersive SEP event, ISʘIS observed a second enhancement of energetic particles contained within the associated CME as it passed over the spacecraft.  Comparisons of these two populations provide information regarding the acceleration of particles at the Sun as well as trapping or acceleration within the CME structure as different components of an individual solar event.
Evidence of Hot Hydrogen in the Exosphere of Mars Resulting in Enhanced Water Loss
Authors: Clarke John , Bhattacharyya Dolon , Mayyasi Majd , Shematovich Valery , Bisikalo Dimitri , Chaufray Jean-Yves , Thiemann Ed , Halekas Jasper , Schmidt Carl , Bertaux Jean-Loup , Chaffin Michael , Schneider Nick
Published: February 2023

The history of water escape from Mars has been a topic of intense interest among the scientific community. Water escape from Mars is generally studied by measuring the escape rate of atomic hydrogen from its exosphere and tracing it back in time to determine the total amount lost by the planet. However, the loss rates are estimated assuming thermal properties for the H atoms, and are therefore a lower limit. Past analyses of spacecraft observations presented indirect evidence for the existence of an energetic non-thermal H population. However, all these observations lacked a clear detection. Here we present the first unambiguous observational signature of non-thermal H at Mars, consistent with solar wind charge exchange as the primary driver for its production. The calculated non-thermal H escape rates reach as high as ~26% of the thermal escape rate near aphelion. An active Sun today would increase the present-day escape rate of H and a younger energetic Sun likely contributed towards a significant loss of water from Mars, thereby shortening the martian water escape history timeline.
Subobduction: subduction plate boundary hiccups revealed by blueschists, eclogites and ophiolites
Authors: Agard Philippe , Soret Mathieu , Bonnet Guillaume , Ninkabou Dia , Plunder Alexis , Prigent Cécile , Yamato Philippe
Published: February 2023

Fragments of ancient oceanic lithosphere preserved in mountain belts, though volumetrically subordinate, provide essential insights into past geodynamics and formation and destruction of oceanic lithosphere. This contribution shows how the two types of oceanic fragments, blueschists and eclogites, on one hand, and ophiolites on the other, preserve crucial information on the dynamics of oceanic convergence, i.e. subduction and obduction.Their mutual relationships, as well as the similarities and differences in the mechanisms leading to their preservation, allow tracking the evolution of the subduction process through time, from the onset of intra-oceanic subduction to the cessation of continental subduction – and, in some cases, to the obduction of ophiolites.Fragments located at the base and immediately below unmetamorphosed (true) ophiolites represent witnesses of intra-oceanic subduction initiation and reveal, in particular, initial mechanical resistance to subduction, subsequent cooling and gradual strain localization. Subducted fragments of oceanic lithosphere metamorphosed as blueschists and eclogites, scraped off the downgoing slab episodically, at shallow or great depths, provide direct access to the composition, structure and rheology of rocks at the plate interface.Both types reflect the mechanical behavior and 'hiccups' of the subduction plate boundary, during subduction initiation and mature subduction respectively.
Comparative performance of recently introduced Deep Learning models for Rainfall-Runoff Modelling
Authors: Gebremichael Yirgalem , Corzo Perez Gerald , Solomatine Dimitri
Published: February 2023

Machine learning and specifically deep learning has been applied in solving numerous hydrology related problems in the past. Furthermore, extensive research has been done on the evaluation and comparison of performances of different Machine learning techniques applied in solving hydrology related problems. In this research, the possible reasons behind these performance variations are being assessed. The performance of recently introduced deep learning techniques for rainfall-runoff modelling are being evaluated by looking in to the possible modelling set-up and training procedures. Therefore, model set-up and training procedures such as: normalization techniques, input variable selection (feature selection), sampling techniques, model complexity, optimization techniques and random initialization of weights are being examined closely in order to improve the performances of different deep learning techniques for rainfall-runoff modelling. As a result, this study is trying to answer whether these factors have significant effect on the model accuracy.The experiments are being conducted on different deep learning models such as: LSTMs, GRUs and MLPs as well as non-deep learning models such as: XGBoost, Random Forest, Linear Regression and Naïve models. Deep learning frameworks including TensorFlow and Keras are being implemented on Python. For better generalization, study areas from three different climatic zones namely: Bagmati catchment in Nepal, Yuna catchment in Dominican Republic and Magdalena catchment in Colombia are chosen to implement this experimental research. Additionally, in situ meteorological and stream flow data are being used for the rainfall-runoff modelling.The preliminary model results show that model performances in case of Bagmati catchment are higher as compared to the other catchments. The LSTMs and MLPs are performing good with NSE values of 0.71 and 0.72 respectively. Most importantly, the linear regression model was outperforming the other models with NSE up to 0.75 in case of considering 6 days lagged rainfall input. This implies the relationship between daily rainfall and runoff data from Bagmati catchment may not be as complex. On the contrary, the 3-hourly data from Yuna catchment shows results with lower values for the performance metrics. This may be an indication of more complex relationships within the Yuna catchment.This research provides key elements of the modelling process, especially in setting up and training deep learning models for rainfall-runoff modelling. The comparative analysis performed here, provides a basis of performance variations on different basins. This work contributes to the experiences in understanding machine learning requirements for different types of river basins.
An integrated general approach to assess the potential risk of outcrops contaminated by asbestos and asbestos-like minerals
Authors: Petriglieri Jasmine Rita , Pacella Alessandro , Barale Luca , Leinardi Riccardo , Tomatis Maura , Ballirano Paolo , Piana Fabrizio , Huaux François , Campopiano Antonella , Turci Francesco
Published: February 2023

The natural occurrence of asbestos and asbestos-like minerals (NOA) poses a risk to the environment and human health, notably when natural processes and anthropic activities promote fibre dispersion. Hundreds of potentially hazardous elongate mineral particles (EMPs, NIOSH 2011 definition) exist, and their toxicological profile is often unknown. We aim here to define a general approach, from field analysis to nano-structural investigation, to assess whether a fibrous mineral occurring in a specific site could pose a risk to human health. To evaluate the hazard associated with NOA, a multi-scale and multi-analytical integrated approach was adopted. Specifically, the geological factors that control the occurrence and distribution of NOA on site, and the mechanisms of formation and liberation of airborne fibres were investigated. In parallel, we explored the key bulk and surface properties of several natural mineral fibres and defined crystallographic, chemical, and morphological aspects that should be considered during hazard assessment. Also, the effect of standardized mechanical stress was used to quantitatively evaluate the potency of NOA-bearing exposed rock to generate inhalable fibres. This property was connected with the mineral characteristic, the rock fabric, and the rock erosion rate. Isolated fibre specimens were used to assess solubility in simulated body fluids, surface reactivity, and toxicological endpoints in vitro and in vivo. Taken together, these findings allowed us to build a multidimensional description of the hazard parameters of mineral fibre and paved the way for a science-based risk assessment in an unexplored NOA site.
Temporal and vertical variation of in-situ methane turnover from stable isotope studies at a boreal peatland
Authors: Li Xuefei , Dorodnikov Maxim , Kohl Lukas , Vesala Timo
Published: February 2023

Boreal peatlands emit a substantial amount of CH4, a potent greenhouse gas, to the atmosphere. Despite decades of effort made on studying CH4 efflux to the atmosphere, understanding the dynamics of the different co-occurring processes underlying CH4 emission remains a challenge in peatland CH4 modeling, especially during the non-growing seasons. Stable isotope signatures of the soil pore water and emitted CH4 can provide information on these processes. To this end, we conducted a first systematic study using stable isotope methods on in-situ major CH4 turnover processes along a peat profile in a typical boreal peatland (Siikaneva fen) in Southern Finland.We run a cavity ring-down spectrometer continuously in 2022 to capture the dynamics of belowground dissolved CH4 and CO2 concentrations and their δ13C natural abundance signatures at 10, 30 and 50cm. Same variables were measured at 40cm above peatland surface to estimate ecosystem-scale average δ13C value of the emitted CH4 using nocturnal boundary-layer accumulation approach. These data were used to indicate CH4 production pathways, in-situ CH4 oxidation and transport pathways on an annual basis. Additionally, 13C pulse labelling experiments targeting acetoclastic methanogenesis, hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis and methanotrophy were performed both in-situ and in the lab condition to trace all these processes which cannot be separated by the isotope natural abundance approach alone.Preliminary results indicated a successful implementation of these novel methods. Continuous measurement of soil gas showed systematic differences in the vertical profile of soil pore water isotopes between winter and summer. δ13C-CH4 values were highest in the deepest layer during winter but they were the lowest in summer. As expected, CH4 production pathway moved towards acetoclastic methanogenesis through winter-summer transition. In winter, the δ13C-CH4 values from emitted CH4 was higher than those from the soil which indicating CH4 oxidation, while in summer the opposite was found due to CH4 diffusive plant transport. CH4 concentrations were higher in summer than in winter from all the depths, while at -30cm had the highest concentration. In-situ labelling experiments showed a higher rate of acetoclastic methanogenesis at -30cm than at -50cm, while hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis was similar at both depths. Experiments also demostrated that there was substantial methanotrophy in the soil as deep as 50cm belowground. 
Distinctive stratification regimes and their biochemical implications across Queen Charlottte Sound, a highly-productive shelf in the Northeast Pacific
Authors: Jhugroo Khushboo , Waterman Stephanie , Jackson Jennifer , Klymak Jody , Ross Tetjana , Hannah Charles
Published: February 2023

Queen Charlotte Sound (QCS) is a broad shelf region off Canada's west coast that is highly biologically productive and hosts several Marine Protected Areas. However, ecosystems in QCS are becoming increasingly susceptible to climate change stressors such as marine heatwaves, ocean acidification, and deoxygenation.  In this system, stratification plays an important role in setting the physical and chemical environment, thus impacting how climate change affects the region, including its biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems. Here, one year of near-continuous underwater glider observations are used to investigate how variability in stratification and exchanges between the coast and open ocean influence the physical and biogeochemical properties in QCS. Specifically, we document how varying relative contributions of temperature and salinity to density stratification set up distinct stratification regimes: a salinity-dominated beta regime, a temperature-dominated alpha regime and a transitional regime, whose presence and spatial extent vary seasonally across the shelf. We then use this stratification regime characterisation to 1) map where and when these regimes manifest and consider the drivers of variability in regime spatial and temporal extent ; 2) quantify the stratification strength as a function of regime and understand regime impacts on the vertical structure of the upper ocean; and 3) demonstrate the usefulness of this regime characterisation to present the systematic differences in chlorophyll and oxygen concentrations and their vertical distribution in the alpha and beta regimes. In addition, we make a comparison of the upper ocean stratification from glider observations with a 1-D mixed layer model driven by meteorological data to test the sensitivity of each regime to atmospheric and lateral exchange processes. Lastly, we will discuss what these findings inform us about stratification in QCS in the future in the context of climate change with increased riverine inputs, melting glaciers, increased precipitation and warmer waters.
An Atlantic-Pacific Seesaw in Circulation and Biogeochemistry
Authors: Rae James , O'brien Charlotte , Bradtmiller Louisa , Burke Andrea , Gebhardt Holger , Gray William , Littley Eloise , Wills Robb , Zhang Xu , Sarnthein Michael , Thornalley David
Published: February 2023

By regulating the supply of carbon, nutrients, and heat, ocean circulation at high latitudes plays a critical role in global climate.  During the last ice age, the Atlantic’s overturning circulation was repeatedly perturbed, associated with major changes in climate, but little is known of the response of biogeochemistry and circulation in the Pacific.  Here we present new high-resolution data that illuminate the coupled changes in circulation, CO2 and nutrient supply, and biological productivity associated with rapid climate change events at northern high latitudes.  We show that abrupt stadial cold events are consistently associated with pulses of enhanced nutrient supply and diatom productivity at mid latitudes in the North Atlantic.  Abrupt changes are also seen in the North Pacific, but are anti-phased, with peaks of productivity and nutrient supply occurring during abrupt interstadial warming.  Using model simulations, we show that these productivity changes can be explained by abrupt switches in the mode of overturning circulation, with weakened overturning associated with accumulation of nutrients in the subsurface waters that supply the surface via winter mixing and upwelling, alongside a southward shift of nutrient-rich subpolar waters.  Our results demonstrate the persistent operation of an Atlantic-Pacific seesaw in overturning circulation and biogeochemistry on centennial to millennial timescales and provide a valuable test for simulation of interlinked changes in circulation, biogeochemistry, and climate.
Global wildfire synchronicity patterns as revealed by complex network analysis
Authors: Bedia Joaquin , Graafland Catharina Elisabeth , Gincheva Andrina , Turco Marco
Published: February 2023

In light of the ongoing global climate change, a better understanding of global wildfire activity is the key to anticipate future impacts and minimize, as much as possible, their negative consequences on natural ecosystems and human economy. In this work we present a global-scale analysis of the inter-annual synchronicity of wildfires using two types of probabilistic networks, able to capture the underlying structures in the burned area data from two different approaches: correlation-based and bayesian networks. By studying their properties through centrality measures and community detection for the complex network, and inference from the Bayesian network, we seek to gain a better understanding of the interrelationships between fire activity in different regions of the planet, highlighting the most important teleconnection patterns. We expect this exploratory analysis to aid in the development and testing of plausible hypotheses about the underlying mechanisms supporting these relationships.
Assessing the occurrence of compound hot and dry events from pre-industrial conditions to present-day extremes
Authors: Felsche Elizaveta , Böhnisch Andrea , Ludwig Ralf
Published: February 2023

Heatwaves and dry spells are major climate hazards that severely impact human health, economy, agriculture, and natural ecosystems. Compound hot and dry summers have become more frequent and intense in recent years in Europe. What remains unclear is, however, to which extent the observed trend can be explained by climate change or as a feature of internal climate variability. In this study, we assess the frequency and intensity of compound hot and dry events in Europe by analyzing recent historical events from reanalysis data 1960-2022 and comparing it to i) a counterfactual reference (corresponding to pre-industrial climate conditions), and ii) model data derived from a Single Model Initial-condition Large Ensemble (SMILE).We use data from the fifth generation of the European Reanalysis (ERA5) to assess the current frequency of the compound hot and dry summers like 2003, 2015, 2018, and 2022 and analyze the intensity of the events. We use the data from the 50-member SMILE Canadian Regional Climate Model Large Ensemble (CRCM5-LE) and calculate the probability of event occurrence for those events in Europe’s current climate. Employing the ensemble allows us to assess the influence of internal climate variability vs. climate change for those events. Additionally, we use pre-industrial conditions (pi-control runs) simulated with CRCM5 to compare the probability of recent hot and dry compound events to a counterfactual world without climate change. Our analysis shows that climate change increases the frequency and intensity of compound hot and dry events. We see a substantial increase in occurrence probabilities compared to a pre-industrial world and draw to emerging hotspots of new compound extremes in several European regions. We illustrate the added value of using pi-control runs in a regional SMILE as a novel approach for impact quantification. It provides the means to understand better the already prominent role of climate change on the occurrence, frequency, and intensity of extreme events in a world of still limited warming.
Diapycnal Mixing in the Bransfield Strait
Authors: Rodríguez-Santana Ángel , Aguiar-González Borja , Marrero-Díaz Ángeles , Valencia Luis Pablo , Machín Francisco
Published: February 2023

During the austral midsummer near the South Shetland Islands, an interdisciplinary cruise (COUPLING) was carried out in January 2010 (Sangrà et al, 2014). For this study we selected one transect of 12 stations across the Central Bransfield Strait with vertical profiles of Conductivity, Temperature and Depth (CTD) and Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP). Vertical profiles of microstructure turbulence were measured at stations of the transect located in specific dynamic features (two fronts: Bransfield Front and Peninsula Front; and an anticyclonic eddy) from a free-fall turbulence profiler. Using CTD and ADCP data, we computed the Thorpe scales, gradient Richardson numbers and density ratios that were compared with microstructure data.We found that the most active turbulent layer was observed within the upper mixed layer (UML) of the anticyclonic eddy between stations 3 and 6 of the transect. However, intense inversions below the UML were found at the axis of the Peninsula Front (station 9). In the region of the Bransfield Front, it is noteworthy that there were obtained relative high values of kinetic energy dissipation rate (ε) with mixing processes due to vertical shear instabilities and double diffusion.  With this work, we have a deeper understanding of the mixing processes in the Bransfield Strait, which will allow a better estimation of the vertical fluxes of heat, salt and nutrients for this region.Key words: Bransfield Strait, Diapycnal Mixing, Microstructure Turbulence.References: Sangrà, P., C. García-Muñoz, C.M. García, A. Marrero-Díaz, C. Sobrino, B. Mouriño-Carballido, B. Aguiar-González, C. Henríquez-Pastene, A. Rodríguez-Santana, L. M. Lubián, M. Hernández-Arencibia, S. Hernández-León, E. Vázquez, S.N. Estrada-Allis (2014). Coupling between upper ocean layer variability and size-fractionated phytoplankton in a non-nutrient-limited environment. Marine Ecology Progress Series, 499, 35-46.
The role of social inequalities in heat-related cardiovascular morbidity in adults in Madrid
Authors: Salvador Coral , Gullón Pedro , Franco Manuel , Vicedo-Cabrera Ana M.
Published: February 2023

Heat poses a great environmental health concern, especially in densely populated urban areas. However, evidence of heat-related cause-specific morbidity is still uncertain. Further evidence on the role of socioeconomic context and individual characteristics as potential risk modifiers is also needed, especially considering the expected increase of exposure and vulnerability to extreme heat events in the future due to climate change.This study aims 1) to analyse the short-term association between heat exposure and the first acute cardiovascular disease event (CVE) in adult residents in the city of Madrid during the summer months (June-September) between 2015 and 2018, and 2) to conduct a vulnerability assessment based on five social and health indicators: sex, age, area-level deprivation, country of origin, and presence of comorbidities.The analysis was conducted using the dataset collected by the Heart Healthy Hoods project (https://www.hhhproject.es/) from 2015 to 2018. Information of CVEs was based on electronic medical records of adults aged 40-75 who were registered in any primary health centre of Madrid from 2015. Daily maximum temperature was the exposure variable (°C, 5km grid), which was provided by the State Meteorological Agency of Spain. We conducted a case-crossover design using a conditional logistic regression model with a distributed non-lineal model to flexibly account for the non-linear and delayed effect (2 days of lag) of temperature on CVE. Odds ratios were estimated for extreme heat (97th temperature percentile in Madrid) compared to the minimum risk temperature. We conducted a stratified analysis by categories of social indicators and sub-diagnosis groups.Overall, extreme heat increased the risk of CVE by 15.3% (95%CI: 1.010-1.317) in adult residents in Madrid. Larger risks were found in males (risk increased by 24.8%), non-Spanish (risk increased by 86.9%), and deprived populations, where a clear dose-response was observed by deprivation levels (risk increased by 6.2% for low deprivation to 22.8% for high deprivation). A positive but not robust association was observed in the rest of the population groups, with similar effects between age groups. Our results also suggest that underlying diabetes, hypertension, or dyslipidaemia did not substantially increase the heat-related CVE risk.Heat increased the risk of CVE among adults in Madrid. Social conditions such as sex, country of origin and deprivation level were important predictors of inequality in heat-related cardiovascular disease. Public health policies should pay special attention to vulnerable individuals since climate change is expected to increase social inequalities and continue disproportionately affecting disadvantaged populations.
Air pollution health inequalities in a low-carbon future
Authors: Reddington Carly , Turnock Steven , Conibear Luke , Arnold Stephen , Berrang Ford Lea , Weaver Charlotte , Forster Piers , Lowe Jason
Published: February 2023

Understanding the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation and how they manifest across different socioeconomic groups is crucial to justify and prioritise future decarbonisation pathways to achieve net zero. In this work, we quantify future worldwide air quality and public health co-benefits of decarbonisation to limit end-of-century warming to either 2ºC (scenario SSP1-2.6) or 1.5ºC (scenario SSP1-1.9), relative to the middle-of-the-road pathway with a medium long-term radiative forcing target of 4.5 W m-2 (scenario SSP2-4.5). We use simulated ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations for the period 2015-2100 from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) experiments. We estimate the mortality burden attributable to exposure to ambient PM2.5 using population attributable fractions of relative risk, incorporating projected changes in population demographics and per-capita GDP. We find that following a future decarbonisation pathway could produce substantial global reductions in population exposure to PM2.5 pollution and associated premature mortality across all socioeconomic groups, with maximum health benefits achieved for middle-income populations (predominantly in Asia) around mid-century. Overall, the more moderate 2ºC-compliant mitigation scenario (SSP1-2.6) could reduce the global PM2.5-attributable mortality burden by 24% in 2050 relative to SSP2-4.5, averting ~2.5M (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 2.1-2.8M) annual deaths worldwide. The more stringent 1.5ºC scenario (SSP1-1.9) could reduce the PM2.5 mortality burden by 29% in 2050, averting ~2.9M (UI: 2.5-3.4M) annual deaths. The magnitude of the air quality and health benefits of reduced PM2.5 pollution through decarbonisation vary with the socioeconomic status of the exposed population, with greater reductions in the PM2.5 mortality burden in middle- and high-income regions (22%) than in the low-income region (15%). Overall, the disparity in PM2.5 exposure between low- and high-income populations is predicted to reduce by 2100 under all three future scenarios. However, the global PM2.5 exposure disparity is projected to increase up to mid-century under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, thus, immediate reduction in the disparity in the near term, is only achieved under a decarbonisation scenario. Despite overall reductions in global PM2.5 exposure inequalities by the end of the century, the disparity in PM2.5 exposure remains around 30%, with the low- and lower-middle-income populations continuing to experience PM2.5 exposures that are over three times the WHO Air Quality Guideline.
The effect of agricultural intensification and population growth in the local climate. A case study of the Ecuadorian Amazon.
Authors: Álvarez-Lozano Doris , Rivas-Tabares David , Urgilez-Clavijo Andrea
Published: February 2023

Among the most important transitions in land use change detected in the Ecuadorian Amazon, two stand out: i) agricultural intensification/rotation and ii) the expansion of populated areas. Both are the result of rural development in recent decades on the slope hills of Ecuador towards the Amazon. The changes registered in the landscape are the consequence of an intensification of forestry, agricultural, livestock and mining activities, which has negatively impacted ecosystems, causing loss/mobilization of fauna and biodiversity. Consequently, ecosystems have also been affected by changes in local climatic characteristics with different degrees of affectation. Local changes in temperature, soil moisture, relative humidity, and wind speed are studied in detail in order to improve decision-making regarding conservation and remediation actions for the Amazon biome. In this study, based on land use and cover maps, spatiotemporal analysis of the evolution of the two transitions was carried out, coupled with an analysis of time series of climatic variables. Contrast analysis with long persistence was carried out in the surroundings of changed patches to confirm the climatic variation because of the transition according to LULCC. A landscape ecology approach was used to support and characterise the analysis of transitions and their relationship with the dynamic characteristics and trends of climatic variables. As a preliminary result, a detected set of points with the greatest territorial dynamics associated with local climate change. This set of patches is valuable to prioritize actions in the short term.AcknowledgementsThe authors acknowledge the support of the Master in Climate Change, Agriculture and Sustainable Rural Development (MACCARD), co-funded by the Erasmus + Programme of the European Union. The authors also acknowledge support from European Union NextGenerationEU and RD 289/2021 and the support of Project No. PGC2018-093854-B-I00 of the Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades de España. 
References
Urgilez-Clavijo, A., de la Riva, J., Rivas-Tabares, D. A., & Tarquis, A. M. (2021). Linking deforestation patterns to soil types: A multifractal approach. European Journal of Soil Science, 72(2), 635-655.
David Rivas-Tabares, Ana M. Tarquis, Ángel de Miguel, Anne Gobin, Bárbara Willaarts. Enhancing LULC scenarios impact assessment in hydrological dynamics using participatory mapping protocols in semiarid regions. Sci. Total Environ., 803, 149906, 2022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149906
Urgilez-Clavijo, A., Rivas-Tabares, D. A., Martín-Sotoca, J. J., & Tarquis Alfonso, A. M. (2021). Local Fractal Connections to Characterize the Spatial Processes of Deforestation in the Ecuadorian Amazon. Entropy, 23(6), 748.
Monitoring material properties of civil engineering structures with 6C point measurements
Authors: Bernauer Felix , Yuan Shihao , Wassermann Joachim , Igel Heiner , Hadziioannou Celine , Guattari Frederic , Liao Chun-Man , Niederleitinger Ernst , Eibl Eva P. S.
Published: February 2023

Observing motion within a building in six degrees of freedom (three components of translational motion plus three components of rotational motion) opens completely new approaches to structural health monitoring. Inspired by inertial navigation, we can monitor the absolute motion of a building or parts of it without the need for an external reference. Rotational motion sensors can directly measure harmful torsional modes of a building, which has always been challenging and prone to errors when using translation sensors only. Currently, we are developing methodologies including rotational motion observations for monitoring of material parameters in order to locate and characterize structural damage. Within the framework of the GIOTTO project (funded by the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research, BMBF) we explore these approaches.Here, we introduce a newly developed 6C sensor network for structural health monitoring. It consists of 14 inertial measurement units (IMU50 from exail, former iXblue, France) that were adapted to the needs of seismology and structural health monitoring. We performed experiments at the BLEIB test structure of the Bundesanstalt für Materialforschung und -prüfung (BAM), a 24 m long concrete beam serving as a large scale bridge model. We present results on detecting changes in material properties (seismic wave speed) of the beam with varying pre-stress and load, as derived from a novel approach by comparing amplitudes of translational to rotational motions at a single measurement point. We compare our findings to results obtained with coda wave interferometry using rotational as well as translational motions.
Comparison of land surface temperatures from Landsat with soil freeze/thaw measurements in permafrost peatlands
Authors: Taghavi Bayat Aida , Gerke Markus , Riedel Björn
Published: February 2023

Permafrost is an important component of sub-Arctic environments and is extremely vulnerable to the impact of climate change. During the last decades, permafrost regions in northern high latitudes have been exposed to greater temperature changes than other regions worldwide. Increased temperatures cause rapid thawing of permafrost which can lead to changes in hydrological processes. Therefore, capturing dynamics of land surface temperature (LST) as one of the key factors affecting the thermal regime of permafrost landscapes at high spatial resolution is crucial for better monitoring these areas under drastic warming projected due to climate change. Landsat imagery at 30 m resolution offers the potential to obtain a consistent coverage of near-surface temperature values. In this study LST values from Landsat were compared with in-situ based soil freeze/thaw (F/T) index, air and soil temperature measurements obtained at the Abisko peatland site in the permafrost areas of northern Sweden. The soil F/T index is an important proxy that describes the relationship between the unfrozen soil water content and the soil temperature in freezing soils.  From 2017 to 2022, comparisons between Landsat LST and soil F/T index show high similarity between them in identifying frozen state, thawed state, and transition periods. In addition, Landsat LST values were found to be better correlated with air temperature (R2 > 90%) than with soil temperature (R2 > 80%) measurements. Overall, it is concluded that Landsat LST offers great potential for monitoring surface temperature changes in high-latitude permafrost regions and provides a promising source of input data for developing models to determine the spatial heterogeneity of freezing and thawing cycles.
Uncertainty reduction by DoE-based history matching of the FE-experiment at Mt. Terri
Authors: Buchwald Jörg , Kaiser Sonja , Wang Wenqing , Kolditz Olaf , Nagel Thomas
Published: February 2023

For the evaluation of the performance of nuclear waste repositories, a detailed investigation of the sensitivity and uncertainty of the underlying processes is essential. The verification and validation of the numerical tools under realistic conditions using experimental data from underground research laboratories is all the more crucial because a comprehensive experimental analysis or investigation of the final repository site is impractical for a variety of reasons. In our contribution, we apply design-of-experiment-based history matching to reduce and examine parameter uncertainties with pressure and temperature data from the FE experiment. The FE experiment is a full-scale multiple heater test in the Opalinus clay at the URL site in Mount Terri in Switzerland. We use the open-source program OpenGeoSys for the deterministic thermo-hydro-mechanical modeling. An initial parameter screening to identify heavy hitters was conducted prior to proxy building using a Gaussian Proxy model. The proxy model is then used for experiment-matching, employing Monte-Carlo sampling over the entire remaining parameter space. The obtained parameter boundaries were applied to a global sensitivity analysis based on the proxy model to quantify uncertainty and show how parameter sensitivities affect results.