Abstract 2620: Ignoring left truncation in overall survival within real-world genomic-phenomic data leads to inflated survival estimates
Authors: Brown Samantha , Lavery Jessica A. , Lepisto Eva M. , McCarthy Caroline , Rizvi Hira , Yu Celeste , Kehl Kenneth L. , Sweeney Shawn M. , Rudolph Julia E. , Schultz Nikolaus , Kundra Ritika , Mastrogiacomo Brooke , Bedard Phillipe , Warner Jeremy L. , Riely Gregory J. , Schrag Deborah , Panageas Katherine S. ,   The AACR Project GENIE Consortium
Published: July 2021

Studies linking genomic and phenomic data are subject to selection biases, including delayed entry or immortal time bias. Delayed entry can be problematic for time-to-event analyses, but utilization of appropriate statistical methods to account for delayed entry are underutilized. Delayed entry commonly occurs when genomic sequencing results are obtained after the start time for survival estimation.

To evaluate the impact of left truncation on overall survival (OS) estimates, we explored outcomes in patients with de novo stage IV non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and colorectal cancer (CRC) from the AACR GENIE Biopharma Collaborative, who had genomic sequencing within a specified timeframe. We analyzed OS from diagnosis and from start of the most common first-line regimen, carboplatin/pemetrexed for NSCLC (N = 212 patients) and FOLFOX for CRC (N = 369 patients). We compared median OS using standard Kaplan-Meier methods to median OS using left truncation methods to account for delayed entry. All NSCLC and CRC patients underwent genomic sequencing after their diagnosis date. Among NSCLC patients on carboplatin/pemetrexed, 41% and among CRC patients on FOLFOX, 14% had sequencing determined after starting first-line regimen. The survfit function in R package survival was used, and the absolute differences and percent differences in median OS estimates were calculated.

Failure to account for delayed entry leads to an overestimation of OS, regardless of cohort and start date. Adjusting survival outcomes using left truncation methods reduces the influence of some aspects of selection bias and results in better estimates of time to event outcomes. Analyses from these cohorts can provide meaningful insights about survival outcomes outside the clinical trial setting and may support trial design and reliable selection of control arms. As such, it is imperative that analytic methods to account for the inflated survival estimates are incorporated.

EstimateCRC Stage IV (N = 658)NSCLC Stage IV (N = 722)Unadjusted Median (IQR) Overall Survival from Diagnosis (Years)3.2 (2.9, 3.4)2.3 (2.0, 2.5)Median (IQR) Overall Survival from Diagnosis in Years, Adjusting for Delayed Entry2.1 (1.9, 2.4)1.3 (1.1, 1.6)Difference in Medians (Years)1.11.0% Difference in Medians34%44%EstimateCRC Stage IV (N = 369)NSCLC Stage IV (N = 212)Unadjusted Median (IQR) Overall Survival from Most Common First-Line Regimen (Years)2.9 (2.6, 3.4)1.3 (1.0, 1.6)Median (IQR) Overall Survival from Most Common First-Line Regimen in Years, Adjusting for Delayed Entry2.1 (1.8, 2.5)0.9 (0.7, 1.2)Difference in Medians (Years)0.80.4% Difference in Medians28%31%

Citation Format: Samantha Brown, Jessica A. Lavery, Eva M. Lepisto, Caroline McCarthy, Hira Rizvi, Celeste Yu, Kenneth L. Kehl, Shawn M. Sweeney, Julia E. Rudolph, Nikolaus Schultz, Ritika Kundra, Brooke Mastrogiacomo, Phillipe Bedard, Jeremy L. Warner, Gregory J. Riely, Deborah Schrag, Katherine S. Panageas, The AACR Project GENIE Consortium. Ignoring left truncation in overall survival within real-world genomic-phenomic data leads to inflated survival estimates [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2021; 2021 Apr 10-15 and May 17-21. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2021;81(13_Suppl):Abstract nr 2620.