Petroleum Perspective
Authors: Essley Phillip L. 
Published: December 2007

This paper was prepared for the 1974 Eastern Regional Meeting of the Society of Petroleum Engineers of AIME, to be held in Washington, D.C., Nov. 14–15, 1974. Permission to copy is restricted to an abstract of not more than 300 words. Illustrations may nit be copied. The abstract should contain conspicuous acknowledgment of where and by whom the paper is presented. Publication elsewhere after publication in the JOURNAL paper is presented. Publication elsewhere after publication in the JOURNAL OF PETROLEUM TECHNOLOGY or the SOCIETY OF PETROLEUM ENGINEERS JOURNAL is usually granted upon request to the Editor of the appropriate journal provided agreement to give proper credit is made. provided agreement to give proper credit is made. Discussion of this paper is invited. Three copies of this discussion should be sent to the Society of Petroleum Engineers office. Such discussion may be presented at the above meeting and, with the paper, may be considered for publication in one of the two SPE magazines.

The present universe under which the petroleum industry operates is considered petroleum industry operates is considered and compared to the past universe and possible future universes. A number of possible future universes. A number of forces that could influence the future universe and requirements for changing it are discussed. One factor of concern is that the deteriorating image of industry could lead to laws and regulations that would adversely impact the industry, or lead to material changes in its present form. Briefly stated, the industry is facing a rapidly widening credibility gap. To materially influence its future, the industry must improve its credibility and its public image.

Introduction

Forecasting is always perilous. For instance, who could have forecast the past two years? As one wag once remarked, forecasting is O.K. as long as you don't try to look into the future. At the onset let me state that I don't profess to have a good crystal ball. My purpose here is not so much to make predictions of the future as to look at some of the forces that will interact to shape future events. While my overall subject is energy policies, we cannot speculate on energy policies without also speculating on our environmental policies and our economic policies. Equally important are political factors and psychological factors which will influence future policy. While we can peculate on how some of these factors will interrelate, our problem is that we do not know the relative future weighting of the various forces.

We likely will have different energy policies in the last half of this decade depending upon how we approach the solution of our current economic problems. We will have different energy policies problems. We will have different energy policies for the next few years if the Arabs renew the embargo than if they do not. We undoubtedly will have different energy policies in the future if we have large tanker spills during 1975, or some other environmental disaster than if we have no major environmental problems in this period. We will have different energy policies if the independent refiners or marketers are thriving than if many are unable to survive.

What happens in energy will be influenced by what happens in the economy, the environment and other areas, such as the weather. What happens in energy may depend upon Arab policies as well as upon U.S. policies. It will depend upon world events as well as upon U.S. events. It will depend on psychological factors as well as on engineering psychological factors as well as on engineering factors. It will depend upon politics as well as upon science.