bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Stationarity analysis of historical flood series in France and Spain (14th–20th centuries)
Authors: Barriendos M. , Coeur D. , Lang M. , Llasat M. C. , Naulet R. , Lemaitre F. , Barrera A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Interdisciplinary frameworks for studying natural hazards and their temporal trends have an important potential in data generation for risk assessment, land use planning, and therefore the sustainable management of resources. This paper focuses on the adjustments required because of the wide variety of scientific fields involved in the reconstruction and characterisation of flood events for the past 1000 years. The aim of this paper is to describe various methodological aspects of the study of flood events in their historical dimension, including the critical evaluation of old documentary and instrumental sources, flood-event classification and hydraulic modelling, and homogeneity and quality control tests. Standardized criteria for flood classification have been defined and applied to the Isère and Drac floods in France, from 1600 to 1950, and to the Ter, the Llobregat and the Segre floods, in Spain, from 1300 to 1980. The analysis on the Drac and Isère data series from 1600 to the present day showed that extraordinary and catastrophic floods were not distributed uniformly in time. However, the largest floods (general catastrophic floods) were homogeneously distributed in time within the period 1600–1900. No major flood occurred during the 20th century in these rivers. From 1300 to the present day, no homogeneous behaviour was observed for extraordinary floods in the Spanish rivers. The largest floods were uniformly distributed in time within the period 1300–1900, for the Segre and Ter rivers.
An historical, geomechanical and probabilistic approach to rock-fall hazard assessment
Authors: Hantz D. , Vengeon J. M. , Dussauge-Peisser C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A new method (HGP for Historical, Geomechanical and Probabilistic) is proposed to estimate the failure probability of potentially unstable rock masses in a homogenous area, as a function of time. Analysis of a rock falls inventory yields the mean number of rock falls which may be expected in the area for the given time period and a given volume range. According to their geomechanical features, the potentially unstable rock masses are distributed in classes corresponding to different failure probabilities. The expected number of rock falls can be expressed as a function of these unknown probabilities. Assuming that only the ratio between these probabilities can be estimated, combining the historical and geomechanical analysis allows estimating the order of magnitude of the different failure probabilities. The method gives a quantitative significance to the evaluations which are usually attributed to potentially unstable rock masses. Rock-fall hazard can then be compared with other natural hazards, such as floods or earthquakes. The method is applied to a case study of calcareous cliffs in the area of Grenoble, France.
A model for the estimation of storm losses and the identification of severe winter storms in Germany
Authors: Klawa M. , Ulbrich U.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A storm loss model for Germany is presented. Input data to the model are the daily maximum gust wind speeds measured at stations distributed over the country. The individual daily peak gust values are scaled with the local climatological upper 2% quantile at each station. This scaling serves to take local conditions at the stations into account, and thus permits a simple spatial interpolation of the storm field. The next step is the computation of a loss index for each storm. It is based on the excess of (scaled) wind speed over the upper 2% quantile, and on population numbers in the individual districts within Germany, with the latter serving as a proxy for the spatial distribution of values that could be affected by a storm. Using wind speeds in excess of the percentile value also serves to take spatial heterogeneity of vulnerability against storms into account. The aggregated storm index gives an estimate of the severity of an individual storm. Finally, the relation between actual loss produced by a storm and the index is estimated using published annual insurance loss due to windstorm in Germany. Index values are accumulated for each year, and the relation to actual loss is computed. The average ratio for the whole reference period is eventually used. It is shown that the interannual variability of storm-related losses can be reproduced with a correlation coefficient of r = 0.96, and even individual storm damages can be estimated. Based on these evaluations we found that only 50 storms account for about 80% of insured storm losses between 1970 and 1997.
Tsunami vulnerability assessment and its implications for coastal hazard analysis and disaster management planning, Gulf of Corinth, Greece
Authors: Papathoma M. , Dominey-Howes D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We apply a new tsunami vulnerability assessment method to two coastal villages in the Gulf of Corinth, Greece using the 7th February 1963 tsunami as a worse case scenario. In Akoli, 46.5% of all buildings are classified highly vulnerable (BV). Approximately, 26.3% of all households are located within buildings with a High BV classification whereas 85% of all businesses are located within buildings with a High BV classification and 13.7% of the population is located within buildings with a High BV classification. In Selianitika, 28.8% of all buildings are classified with a High BV and 11% of all households are located within buildings with a High BV classification. Also 29.3% of all businesses and 33.4% of all services are located within buildings with a High BV classification and 6.7% of the population is located within buildings with a High BV classification. We estimate the minimum costs of a hypothetical tsunami with a wave run-up (H(m)max) of + 5 m. The results are considered significant because they have important implications for coastal risk assessment, resource allocation and disaster management planning.
Development of the damage potential resulting from avalanche risk in the period 1950-2000, case study Galtür
Authors: Keiler M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The risk resulting from natural hazards can be derived from the combination of parameters of physical processes and the damage potential. Even though the damage potential has been taken into account more frequently, quantifying statements are still missing. This study presents a detailed recording of the damage potential in the study area and describes the development of the damage potential since 1950 in decades. In the community, the increase of the number of buildings and their values is above average of the region. 37% of the existing buildings are located in legally declared avalanche hazard zones. In these areas, the probability of presence of persons increased considerably due to tourism activities and shows substantial seasonal fluctuations. If the analysis of the damage potential and the hazard estimation are performed with the same degree of precision, risk analysis and risk management will be improved significantly.
A long range dependent model with nonlinear innovations for simulating daily river flows
Authors: Elek P. , Márkus L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We present the analysis aimed at the estimation of flood risks of Tisza River in Hungary on the basis of daily river discharge data registered in the last 100 years. The deseasonalised series has skewed and leptokurtic distribution and various methods suggest that it possesses substantial long memory. This motivates the attempt to fit a fractional ARIMA model with non-Gaussian innovations as a first step. Synthetic streamflow series can then be generated from the bootstrapped innovations. However, there remains a significant difference between the empirical and the synthetic density functions as well as the quantiles. This brings attention to the fact that the innovations are not independent, both their squares and absolute values are autocorrelated. Furthermore, the innovations display non-seasonal periods of high and low variances. This behaviour is characteristic to generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) models. However, when innovations are simulated as GARCH processes, the quantiles and extremes of the discharge series are heavily overestimated. Therefore we suggest to fit a smooth transition GARCH-process to the innovations. In a standard GARCH model the dependence of the variance on the lagged innovation is quadratic whereas in our proposed model it is a bounded function. While preserving long memory and eliminating the correlation from both the generating noise and from its square, the new model is superior to the previously mentioned ones in approximating the probability density, the high quantiles and the extremal behaviour of the empirical river flows.
Probing orographic controls in the Himalayas during the monsoon using satellite imagery
Authors: Barros A. P. , Kim G. , Williams E. , Nesbitt S. W.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The linkages between the space-time variability of observed clouds, rainfall, large-circulation patterns and topography in northern India and the Himalayas were investigated using remote sensing data. The research purpose was to test the hypothesis that cloudiness patterns are dynamic tracers of rainstorms, and therefore their temporal and spatial evolution can be used as a proxy of the spatial and temporal organization of precipitation and precipitation processes in the Himalayan range during the monsoon. The results suggest that the space-time distribution of precipitation, the spatial variability of the diurnal cycle of convective activity, and the terrain (landform and altitudinal gradients) are intertwined at spatial scales ranging from the order of a few kms (1–5km) up to the continental-scale. Furthermore, this relationship is equally strong in the time domain with respect to the onset and intra-seasonal variability of the monsoon. Infrared and microwave imagery of cloud fields were analyzed to characterize the spatial and temporal evolution of mesoscale convective weather systems and short-lived convection in Northern India, the Himalayan range, and in the Tibetan Plateau during three monsoon seasons (1999, 2000 and 2001). The life cycle of convective systems suggests landform and orographic controls consistent with a convergence zone constrained to the valley of the Ganges and the Himalayan range, bounded in the west by the Aravalli range and the Garhwal mountains and in the East by the Khasi Hills and the Bay of Bengal, which we call the Northern India Convergence Zone (NICZ). The NICZ exhibits strong night-time activity along the south-facing slopes of the Himalayan range, which is characterized by the development of short-lived convection (1–3h) aligned with protruding ridges between 1:00 and 3:00 AM. The intra-annual and inter-annual variability of convective activity in the NICZ were assessed with respect to large-scale synoptic conditions, monsoon activity in the Bay of Bengal, and the modulating role of orography. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and canonical correlation (CC) analysis suggest that joint modes of variability of monsoon weather and topography, which we call orographic land-atmosphere interactions, modulate the space-time variability of cloudiness in the region. Finally, scaling analysis of cloudiness suggests three different scaling regimes of orographic land-atmosphere interactions: 1) a synoptic-scale regime (≥70-80km); 2) an orographic meso–β regime (30–70km) associated with the succession of wide valleys and bulky terrain features; and 3) an orographic meso–α regime (≤30km) associated with the complex succession of protruding south-facing ridges and narrow valleys that characterize the Himalayan foothills between altitudes of 3000 and 5000m elevations.
Flood risk assessment and associated uncertainty
Authors: Apel H. , Thieken A. H. , Merz B. , Blöschl G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Flood disaster mitigation strategies should be based on a comprehensive assessment of the flood risk combined with a thorough investigation of the uncertainties associated with the risk assessment procedure. Within the "German Research Network of Natural Disasters" (DFNK) the working group "Flood Risk Analysis" investigated the flood process chain from precipitation, runoff generation and concentration in the catchment, flood routing in the river network, possible failure of flood protection measures, inundation to economic damage. The working group represented each of these processes by deterministic, spatially distributed models at different scales. While these models provide the necessary understanding of the flood process chain, they are not suitable for risk and uncertainty analyses due to their complex nature and high CPU-time demand. We have therefore developed a stochastic flood risk model consisting of simplified model components associated with the components of the process chain. We parameterised these model components based on the results of the complex deterministic models and used them for the risk and uncertainty analysis in a Monte Carlo framework. The Monte Carlo framework is hierarchically structured in two layers representing two different sources of uncertainty, aleatory uncertainty (due to natural and anthropogenic variability) and epistemic uncertainty (due to incomplete knowledge of the system). The model allows us to calculate probabilities of occurrence for events of different magnitudes along with the expected economic damage in a target area in the first layer of the Monte Carlo framework, i.e. to assess the economic risks, and to derive uncertainty bounds associated with these risks in the second layer. It is also possible to identify the contributions of individual sources of uncertainty to the overall uncertainty. It could be shown that the uncertainty caused by epistemic sources significantly alters the results obtained with aleatory uncertainty alone. The model was applied to reaches of the river Rhine downstream of Cologne.
Synthetic aperture radar (SAR)-based mapping of volcanic flows: Manam Island, Papua New Guinea
Authors: Weissel J. K. , Czuchlewski K. R. , Kim Y.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We present new radar-based techniques for efficient identification of surface changes generated by lava and pyroclastic flows, and apply these to the 1996 eruption of Manam Volcano, Papua New Guinea. Polarimetric L- and P-band airborne synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data, along with a C-band DEM, were acquired over the volcano on 17 November 1996 during a major eruption sequence. The L-band data are analyzed for dominant scattering mechanisms on a per pixel basis using radar target decomposition techniques. A classification method is presented, and when applied to the L-band polarimetry, it readily distinguishes bare surfaces from forest cover over Manam volcano. In particular, the classification scheme identifies a post-1992 lava flow in NE Valley of Manam Island as a mainly bare surface and the underlying 1992 flow units as mainly vegetated surfaces. The Smithsonian's Global Volcanism Network reports allow us to speculate whether the bare surface is a flow dating from October or November in the early part of the late-1996 eruption sequence. This work shows that fully polarimetric SAR is sensitive to scattering mechanism changes caused by volcanic resurfacing processes such as lava and pyroclastic flows. By extension, this technique should also prove useful in mapping debris flows, ash deposits and volcanic landslides associated with major eruptions.
An example of debris-flows hazard modeling using GIS
Authors: Melelli L. , Taramelli A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. We present a GIS-based model for predicting debris-flows occurrence. The availability of two different digital datasets and the use of a Digital Elevation Model (at a given scale) have greatly enhanced our ability to quantify and to analyse the topography in relation to debris-flows. In particular, analysing the relationship between debris-flows and the various causative factors provides new understanding of the mechanisms. We studied the contact zone between the calcareous basement and the fluvial-lacustrine infill adjacent northern area of the Terni basin (Umbria, Italy), and identified eleven basins and corresponding alluvial fans. We suggest that accumulations of colluvium in topographic hollows, whatever the sources might be, should be considered potential debris-flow source areas. In order to develop a susceptibility map for the entire area, an index was calculated from the number of initiation locations in each causative factor unit divided by the areal extent of that unit within the study area. This index identifies those units that produce the most debris-flows in each Representative Elementary Area (REA). Finally, the results are presented with the advantages and the disadvantages of the approach, and the need for further research.
Structure and dynamics of deep-seated slope failures in the Magura Flysch Nappe, outer Western Carpathians (Czech Republic)
Authors: Baron I. , Cilek V. , Krejci O. , Melichar R. , Hubatka F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Deep-seated mass movements currently comprise one of the main morphogenetic processes in the Flysch Belt of the Western Carpathians of Central Europe. These mass movements result in a large spectrum of slope failures, depending on the type of movement and the nature of the bedrock. This paper presents the results of a detailed survey and reconstruction of three distinct deep-seated slope failures in the Raca Unit of the Magura Nappe, Flysch Belt of the Western Carpathians in the Czech Republic. An interdisciplinary approach has enabled a global view of the dynamics and development of these deep-seated slope failures. The three cases considered here have revealed a complex, poly-phase development of slope failure. They are deep-seated ones with depths to the failure surface ranging from 50 to 110m. They differ in mechanism of movement, failure structure, current activity, and total displacement. The main factors influencing their development have been flysch-bedrock structure, lithology, faulting by bedrock separation (which enabled further weakening through deep weathering), geomorphic setting, swelling of smectite-rich clays, and finally heavy rainfall. All of the slope failures considered here seem to have originated during humid phases of the Holocene or during the Late Glacial.
Pressure stimulated currents in rocks and their correlation with mechanical properties
Authors: Stavrakas I. , Triantis D. , Agioutantis Z. , Maurigiannakis S. , Saltas V. , Vallianatos F. , Clarke M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The spontaneous electrification of marble samples was studied while they were subjected to uniaxial stress. The Pressure Stimulated Current (PSC) technique was applied to measure the charge released from compressed Dionysos marble samples, while they were subjected to cyclic loading. The experimental results demonstrate that, in the linear elastic region of the sample, no PSC is recorded, while beyond the stress limit (s>0.60), observable variations appear, which increase considerably in the vicinity of sample failure, reaching a maximum value just before the failure. The emitted current is reduced on each loading cycle and it has a reciprocal dependence to the normalized Young modulus. The MCD model, applied out of the vicinity of sample failure explains successfully the above findings. The existence of a "memory-like" behavior of the sample, could justify the weakness or absence of electrical earthquake precursors, during an aftershock sequence.
Parametric evaluation of 3D dispersion of rockfall trajectories
Authors: Crosta G. B. , Agliardi F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The capability of evaluating and managing rockfall related risks is largely based on numerical modelling. Nevertheless, the reliability and accuracy of rockfall models is greatly affected by the strong uncertainty and spatial variability which characterise all the relevant parameters. In particular, 3D effects related to the variability of slope geometry and micro-topography play a major role in controlling the dynamics of falling blocks. The most important 3D effect is the "lateral dispersion" of rockfall trajectories, largely affecting the way we model rockfall dynamics, design countermeasures and assess rockfall hazard. Nevertheless, the dependence of lateral dispersion on different controlling factors has been hardly ever systematically evaluated. In this paper, the influence of different controlling factors on the dispersion of rockfall trajectories has been systematically evaluated by performing 3D parametric modelling. Numerical simulations have been performed through a new software code able to use both a lumped mass and an hybrid (kinematic-dynamic) approach. Parametric modelling has been performed at different spatial resolutions using sets of biplanar simplified slopes characterised by different mean inclination and roughness. Model results outlined a complex dependence of lateral dispersion phenomena on slope mean gradient (macro-topography), slope roughness (micro-topography) and the spatial resolution of the model (model-dependent topography). Furthermore, the sensitivity of model results in terms of kinematic variables of motion (i.e. velocity and height to the ground) to the factors controlling lateral dispersion has been evaluated, resulting in practical constraints on countermeasure design and hazard assessment.
A methodology for the classification of convective structures using meteorological radar: Application to heavy rainfall events on the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula
Authors: Rigo T. , Llasat M. C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. During the period 1996–2000, forty-three heavy rainfall events have been detected in the Internal Basins of Catalonia (Northeastern of Spain). Most of these events caused floods and serious damage. This high number leads to the need for a methodology to classify them, on the basis of their surface rainfall distribution, their internal organization and their physical features. The aim of this paper is to show a methodology to analyze systematically the convective structures responsible of those heavy rainfall events on the basis of the information supplied by the meteorological radar. The proposed methodology is as follows. Firstly, the rainfall intensity and the surface rainfall pattern are analyzed on the basis of the raingauge data. Secondly, the convective structures at the lowest level are identified and characterized by using a 2-D algorithm, and the convective cells are identified by using a 3-D procedure that looks for the reflectivity cores in every radar volume. Thirdly, the convective cells (3-D) are associated with the 2-D structures (convective rainfall areas). This methodology has been applied to the 43 heavy rainfall events using the meteorological radar located near Barcelona and the SAIH automatic raingauge network.
The value of historical documents for hazard zone mapping
Authors: Barnikel F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The assessment of historical data of small mountain torrents in Alpine catchment areas has shown a significant difference between the results of a regular hazard zone mapping and a thorough historical analysis. The Gemsbach in the Ostrach valley near Hinterstein (Municipality of Hindelang, southern Bavaria/Germany) serves, among others, as an example. A "traditional" hazard zone for the Gemsbach has been mapped in the 1990s. The oldest event included in the analysis was the flood of 1954. But historical data collected and analysed by the HANG-project shows flood-prone areas around the Gemsbach differing greatly in size and location from the one shown in the hazard zone maps. The inclusion of all data available for the Gemsbach area (15 events between 1671 and 1960 collected from four different archives) leads to a completely new picture of the regional hazardous activity and demands a re-structuring of the traditional way of hazard zone mapping.
Probabilistic analysis of drought spatiotemporal characteristics inThessaly region, Greece
Authors: Loukas A. , Vasiliades L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The temporal and spatial characteristics of meteorological drought are investigated to provide a framework for sustainable water resources management in the region of Thessaly, Greece. Thessaly is the most intensely cultivated and productive agricultural plain region in Greece. Thessaly's total area is about 13700 km2 and it is surrounded by mountains and traversed by Pinios River. Using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as an indicator of drought severity, the characteristics of droughts are examined. Thessaly was divided into 212 grid-cells of 8 x 8 km and monthly precipitation data for the period 1960–1993 from 50 meteorological stations were used for global interpolation of precipitation using spatial co-ordinates and elevation data. Drought severity was assessed from the estimated gridded SPI values at multiple time scales. Firstly, the temporal and spatial characteristics of droughts were analyzed and then, Drought Severity – Areal extent – Frequency (SAF) annual and monthly curves were developed. The analysis indicated that moderate and severe droughts are common in Thessaly region. Using the SAF curves, the return period of selected severe drought events was assessed.
Stability analysis of apparent resistivity measurement in the seismically active area of Val d'Agri (southern Italy)
Authors: Balasco M. , Lapenna V. , Siniscalchi A. , Telesca L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A magnetotelluric monitoring station has been installed in the Val d'Agri area (southern Italy), to investigate the physics underlying the generation mechanisms of the electrokinetic effect, due to rapid pore pressure changes and fluid flows near the focal area of incoming earthquakes. It is well known that the magnetotelluric method reveals variations in electrical resistivity within the Earth at large depths, reaching within appropriate frequency bands the Earth's mantle. Depth sounding is performed by measuring the ratio between the mutually perpendicular horizontal electric and magnetic fields at the earth's surface, furnishing the apparent resistivity, which describes the electrical properties of subsoil as function of depth. The selected site of Val d'Agri has been struck by strong seismic events in past and recent years, this suggesting the investigation of possible changes in apparent resistivity correlated with the local tectonic activity. We analyzed the stability of the measurement of apparent resistivity and phase of the impedance tensor Z(ω) during time. Our findings suggest that the measure of apparent resistivity during night-time is more stable. Therefore, we identified the characteristic apparent resistivity curve of the subsoil of the Val d'Agri site, which could be considered as a reference.
Analysis of different water-sediment flow processes in a mountain torrent
Authors: Arattano M. , Franzi L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Sediment – water flows occurring in mountain torrents may show a variety of regimes, ranging from water flows with transport of individual particles to massive transport of debris, as it occurs in case of debris flows. Sometimes it is possible, by means of accurate field investigations, to identify the kind of processes that took place in a torrent after the occurrence of an event. However this procedure cannot give indications regarding the development of the process in time. In fact, because of the frequent presence of different surges within the same event, the rheological characteristics of an event can be detected only when some recorded hydrographs or videos are available. For the same reason, since the rheological behaviour of the flow changes according to the solid concentration, the analysis of the materials deposited on the debris fan cannot directly give any information on the particular types of flow that took place: a possible alternation in time of different water sediment surges with different concentrations may have occurred, during the same event. The installation of ultrasonic gauges or videocameras along the torrent might give more information on this issue. To this regard, the analysis of a flow event which occurred in 2002 in the Moscardo torrent watershed, instrumented for debris flow monitoring, has been undertaken, studying the hydrographs recorded at two different ultrasonic gauges placed at a known distance along the torrent. An empirical flow resistance law has been applied analysing the values assumed by its parameters after calibration. The application of this law actually spans from debris flow and immature debris flow to bed load transport. Only field observations and surveys, together with ultrasonic data, may allow to clearly discriminate which type of flow really occurred. The analysis confirms that different water sediment surges alternated in time while the mathematical simulation of the flow compared with field observations revealed that the dynamic behaviour of the flow was different from that of previous debris flow events and might reflect, among the different types of possible rheological behaviors, a dilatant-type behavior typical of stony debris flows.
Assessing fracture occurrence using "weighted fracturing density": a step towards estimating rock instability hazard
Authors: Jaboyedoff M. , Baillifard F. , Philippossian F. , Rouiller J.-D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Based on the assumption that major class of rock instabilities are created by discontinuities, a method is proposed to estimate the fracture density by means of a digital elevation model (DEM). By using the mean orientation, the mean spacing and the mean trace length of discontinuity sets potentially involved in slope instabilities and a DEM, it is possible to calculate the mean number of discontinuities of a given set per cell of the DEM. This would allow for an estimation of the probability of the presence of at least one discontinuity in a given area or simply in a topographic cell of the DEM. This analysis highlights sites potentially affected by rockslides within a region. Depending on the available data, the mean number can be calculated either by area, or along a line parallel to the mean apparent spacing. The effective use of the probability of occurrence is dependent on the size of the discontinuities because short and closely spaced discontinuities will have a 100% probability of occurrence in each favorable location. The a posteriori prediction of a recent rockslide is discussed as an example.
Using a laser measurement system for monitoring morphological changes on the Strug rock fall, Slovenia
Authors: Mikoš M. , Vidmar A. , Brilly M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A medium-ranged high performance handheld reflectorless laser measurement system, was used for a morphological survey on the Strug rock fall in W Slovenia in the period from August 2003 to August 2004. The purpose was to evaluate its potential for monitoring ground surface changes in rock fall source areas and to help evaluating morphological changes by measuring distance from fixed points. In the area, 21 fixed geodetic points have been established. Altogether, seven measurement sets with more than 5500 points have been gathered in the rock fall area. Choosing a point cloud with a density of less than 1 point per 10m2 on a very rough rock fall surface failed to be a good solution. The changes on larger areas were shown by displacements of selected significantly large-sized rock blocks with a volume of several m3. Because only smaller changes were observed between the single field series, the rock fall surface generally remained unchanged. Local surface changes of the order of 1 m or more, were clearly shown by measurements in the selected referenced cross sections. The usage of these cross sections gave a possibility to evaluate volumetric changes on the surface. The laser measurement system provided a good replacement for the classical terrestrial geodetic survey equipment, especially when performing remote monitoring of morphological changes in rock fall hazard zones, however, the case is different when fixed points are to be measured precisely.
Integrated geophysical surveys to assess the structural conditions of a karstic cave of archaeological importance
Authors: Leucci G. , De Giorgi L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. An integrated geophysical survey using both the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) and ground-penetrating radar (GPR) methods was undertaken over a cave of great archaeological interest in southern Italy. The survey was performed to assess the stability of the carbonate rock roof of the cave. A geophysical survey was preferred to boreholes and geotechnical tests, in order to avoid the risk of mass movements. The interpretation of integrated data from ERT and GPR resulted in an evaluation of some of the electromagnetic (EM) characteristics (such as the EM wave velocity) and the detection of discontinuities (fractures) in the carbonate rock. It is well known that rock fractures constitute a serious problem in cave maintenance, and progressive cracking within the bed rock is considered to be one of the main causes of collapse. An analysis of the back-scattered energy was also required for the GPR data interpretation. Cracks within the bedrock were detected to a depth of about 2 m by using GPR, which allowed for the identification of the loosened zone around the cave.
Recent trends and climatic perspectives of hailstorms frequency and intensity in Tuscany and Central Italy
Authors: Piani F. , Crisci A. , De Chiara G. , Maracchi G. , Meneguzzo F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The damages from climatic extremes have dramatically increased in the last decades in Europe, as likely outcomes of climate change: floods, droughts, heat waves and hailstorms have brought local as well as widespread damages to farmers, industry, infrastructures and society, to insurance and reinsurance companies; in this work we deal with the hailstorm hazard. The NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis (2.5 by 2.5° lat-lon) over the Italian area and the hailstorm reports at several sites are used to identify few forcings for hailstorms; statistical relationships linking forcings and hailstorm frequencies are derived. Such relationships are applied to the same forcings derived from the CGCM2-A2 climate scenario provided by the Canadian Centre for Climate modeling and analysis (CCCma; resolution approximately 3.75 by 3.75° lat-lon), to evaluate the expected changes of the frequency of hailstorms. The time series of the forcings from the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis and the CCCma climate scenario in the past decades are compared in order to assess the reliability and accuracy of the predictions of the future hailstorm hazard. It is shown that the climate scenario provides a fairly faithful representation of the past trends of the forcings relevant to the hailstorms frequency and that such quantity, hence the hailstorm hazard, is growing and will likely grow in the future over the limited area taken into consideration in this study.
A review of the potential and actual sources of pollution to groundwater in selected karst areas in Slovenia
Authors: Kovačič G. , Ravbar N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Slovenian karst areas extend over 43% of the country; limestones and dolomites of the Mesozoic era prevail. In Slovenia karst groundwater contributes up to 50% of the total drinking water supply. The quality of water is very high, despite the fact that it is extremely vulnerable to pollution. The present article is a study and a review of the potential and actual sources of pollution to the groundwater in the selected karst aquifers (the Kras, Velika planina and Snežnik plateaus), which differ in their natural characteristics. Unlike the other selected plateaus, the Kras plateau is inhabited. There are several settlements in the area and the industrial, agricultural and traffic activities carried out that represent a serious threat to the quality of karst groundwater. The Velika planina and Snežnik plateaus do not have permanent residents, however there are some serious hazards to the quality of the karst springs arising from sports, tourist, construction and farming activities, as well as from the traffic related to them. Despite relatively favourable conditions for protection, many important karst aquifers and springs are improperly protected in Slovenia. The reason is the lack of knowledge about sustainable water management in karst regions and the confusion in drinking water protection policy.
Hazard connected to railway tunnel construction in karstic area: applied geomorphological and hydrogeological surveys
Authors: Casagrande G. , Cucchi F. , Zini L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In a mature karstic system, the realisation of galleries using the methodology of railway tunnel boring machine (TBM) involves particular problems due to the high risk of interference with groundwater (often subject to remarkable level variations) and with cavities and/or thick fill deposits. In order to define groundwater features it is necessary to investigate both hydrodynamic and karstification. To define and quantify the karst phenomenon in the epikarst of the Trieste Karst (Italy), an applied geomorphological approach has been experimented with surface and cavity surveys. The surface surveys have contributed to determining the potential karst versus the different outcropping lithologies and to define the structural setting of the rocky mass also through the realisation of geostructural stations and the survey of the main lines thanks to photo-interpretation. Moreover, all the dolines and the cavities present in the area interested by the gallery have been studied by analysing the probable extension of caves and/or of the secondary fill deposits and by evaluating the different genetic models. In an area 900m large and 27km long, which has been studied because of the underground karst, there are 41 dolines having diameters superior to 100m and 93 dolines whose diameters range between 100 and 50m; the dolines whose diameters are inferior to 50m are 282. The entrances of known and registered cavities in the cadastre records are 520. The hypogeal surveys have shown 5 typologies in which it has been possible to group all the cavities present in a hypothetical intersection with the excavation. The comparison between surface and hypogeal structural data and the direction of development of cavities has allowed for the definition of highly karstified discontinuity families, thus having a higher risk. The comparison of the collected data has enabled to identify the lithologies and areas having major risk and thus to quantify the probability of intersection with the different cavity typologies for each area. To make an example, out of 27000m of studied gallery 3930 are the metres expected to be at very high "karst risk". Out of these, as a whole 310 are risky because of the probable presence of gallery cavities, 2170 because of the probable presence of pits and sinkholes diffusely present under the dolines, and along 1450m karst is particularly intense. Moreover, 2200 should be the metres in which the rocky mass will be particularly divided because of tectonic causes. From a hydrogeological point of view a monitoring of water level has started to quantify water excursion, due to closeness of the railway tunnel to the mean water level. First results related to galleries intersection are here presented.
The influence of the geological setting on the morphogenetic evolution of the Tremiti Archipelago (Apulia, Southeastern Italy)
Authors: Andriani G. F. , Walsh N. , Pagliarulo R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Tremiti Archipelago (Southern Adriatic Sea), also called Insulae Diomedae from the name of the Greek hero who first landed there, is an area of high landscape and historical value. It is severely affected by significant geomorphologic processes dominated by mass movements along the coast that constitute the most important and unpredictable natural hazard for the population and cultural heritage. Coastal erosion is favoured by the peculiar geological and structural setting, seismic activity, weathering, development of karst processes, and wave action. The present paper reports on descriptive and qualitative evaluation of the factors controlling landslides and coastline changes based on medium-term in situ observation, detailed surface surveys at selected locations since 1995, and historic and bibliographic data. The Tremiti Archipelago is part of an active seismic area characterised by a shear zone separating two segments of the Adriatic microplate that have shown different behaviour and roll back rates in the subduction underneath the Apennines since middle Pleistocene. Although coastal morphology can be basically considered to be the result of wave action, the continual action of subaerial processes contributes effectively to the mechanism of shoreline degradation. Weathering mainly affects the marly calcisiltites and calcilutites of the Cretaccio Fm. and the friable and low cemented calcarenites and biomicrites of the San Nicola Fm. The cliffs are characterised by different types of failure such as lateral spreads, secondary topples, rock falls and slides. At the Isle of San Nicola, landslides are controlled by the contrast in competence, shear strength and stiffness between the Pliocene re-crystallised dolomitic calcarenites and calcisiltites and the Miocene marly calcilutites and calcisiltites. At the Isles of San Domino and Caprara rock falls are attributed to the undercutting of waves at the base of the cliffs.
Terrain modelling by kinematical GPS survey
Authors: Nico G. , Rutigliano P. , Benedetto C. , Vespe F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This work presents the first results of an experiment aiming to derive a high resolution Digital Terrain Model (DTM) by kinematic GPS surveying. The accuracy of the DTM depends on both the operational GPS precision and the density of GPS samples. The operational GPS precision, measured in the field, is about 10cm. A Monte Carlo analysis is performed to study the dependence of the DTM error on the sampling procedure. The outcome of this analysis is that the accuracy of the topographic reconstruction is less than 1m even in areas with a density of samples as low as one sample per 100m2, and becomes about 30cm in areas with at least one sample per 10m2. The kinematic GPS technique gives a means for a fast and accurate mapping of terrain surfaces with an extension of a few km2. Examples of application are the investigation of archaeological sites and the stability analysis of landslide prone areas.
On spread-Es effects in the ionosphere before earthquakes
Authors: Liperovsky V. A. , Meister C.-V. , Liperovskaya E. V. , Vasil'eva N. E. , Alimov O.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The spread-Es phenomenon which appears as diffusivity of the traces of sporadic E-layers on the ionogrammes of vertical sounding stations and which reflects the turbulization of the sporadic layers -Es is studied in connection with earthquake preparation processes. Spread-Es data obtained at night every 15 min by the midlatitudinal vertical sounding station of the ionosphere in Dushanbe (φ=38.5° N, λ=68.8° E) are analysed. Groups of earthquakes with different magnitudes and different distances between the epicenter and the sounding station are considered. A statistical analysis of the obtained results is performed. It is shown that during the three nights before an earthquake, spread-Es phenomena are observed more often than during the forth, fifth and sixth nights before the event. This effect is found to depend on both the magnitude of the earthquake and the distance between the epicenter and the sounding station.
High resolution forecast of heavy precipitation with Lokal Modell: analysis of two case studies in the Alpine area
Authors: Elementi M. , Marsigli C. , Paccagnella T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Northern Italy is frequently affected by severe precipitation conditions often inducing flood events with associated loss of properties, damages and casualties. The capability of correctly forecast these events, strongly required for an efficient support to civil protection actions, is still nowadays a challenge. This difficulty is also related with the complex structure of the precipitation field in the Alpine area and, more generally, over the Italian territory. Recently a new generation of non-hydrostatic meteorological models, suitable to be used at very high spatial resolution, has been developed. In this paper the performance of the non-hydrostatic Lokal Modell developed by the COSMO Consortium, is analysed with regard to a couple of intense precipitation events occurred in the Piemonte region in Northern Italy. These events were selected among the reference cases of the Hydroptimet/INTERREG IIIB project. LM run at the operational resolution of 7km provides a good forecast of the general rain structure, with an unsatisfactory representation of the precipitation distribution across the mountain ranges. It is shown that the inclusion of the new prognostic equations for cloud ice, rain and snow produces a remarkable improvement, reducing the precipitation in the upwind side and extending the intense rainfall area to the downwind side. The unrealistic maxima are decreased towards observed values. The use of very high horizontal resolution (2.8 km) improves the general shape of the precipitation field in the flat area of the Piemonte region but, keeping active the moist convection scheme, sparse and more intense rainfall peaks are produced. When convective precipitation is not parametrised but explicitly represented by the model, this negative effect is removed.