bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
THE PROTECTION OF WITNESSES IN BOSNIAN WAR CRIMES TRIALS: A FAIR BALANCE BETWEEN THE INTERESTS OF VICTIMS AND THE RIGHTS OF THE ACCUSED?
Authors: Haider Huma , Welch Timothy
Published: August 2020

In early war crimes trials such as in Nuremburg, documentary evidence was decisive in convicting the defendants. Witness evidence was of lesser importance.1 By contrast, in Bosnian war crimes trials the testimony of witnesses is essential, forming much of the evidential weight upon which the courts decisions are based.  If witnesses are not found or if they are unwilling or unable to give evidence in court, trials are unlikely to proceed.
Re C (A Child) (Adoption: Duty of Local Authority) [2007] 3 FCR 659
Authors: Welstead Mary
Published: August 2020

ANONYMITY AND ADOPTION - A CLASH OF RIGHTSThe Ospedale degli Innocenti in the Piazza della Santissima Annunziatia in Florence, which dates back to the 15th century, was a place of refuge for babies whose mothers could not cope with taking care of them. Brunelleschi, the Italian architect and engineer, was responsible for the design of the beautiful colonnaded building.  Its façade is adorned with blue and white glazed terra cotta bas-reliefs, sculpted by Andrea Della Robbia. These depict chubby Florentine babies, naked or wrapped in swaddling clothes, and are a symbol of the building’s function. Any mother who wished to surrender her baby into the care of the Ospedale could place it in a stoup below a small window in a wall of the building. The stoup opened onto an inner room where a woman waited and removed each baby immediately after it was placed there. In the 18th century the stoup was replaced by a wheel, rather like a “lazy Susan”. The baby was placed on the wheel, which was turned, and the baby was delivered into the arms of the woman waiting inside the orphanage. Babies were sent out to wet nurses until they were weaned and then returned to the orphanage where they remained until they were fostered out or became old enough to work or, in the case of girls, betrothed to marry. All the children acquired the same family name - Innocenti.
Secretary of State for the Home Department v MB: Secretary of State for the Home Department v AF [2007] UKHL 46
Authors: Edwards Susan
Published: August 2020

HUMAN SACRIFICES AT THE ALTAR OF TERRORIST CONTROLJoseph K in Franz Kafka’s The Trial is arrested and put on trial, but the evidence against him is never disclosed and so he is suspended in a legal nightmare. On December 16th 2004, the House of Lords, in A and others v Secretary of State for the Home Department, ruled that indefinite detention of non-UK nationals, without charge or trial, was incompatible with Article 5 of the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR). In A and others v Secretary of State for the Home Department (No 2), Lord Carswell said, “…no court will readily lend itself to indefinite detention without charge, let alone trial.”
SECURED TRANSACTIONS IN INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY: SOFTWARE AS COLLATERAL
Authors: Denoncourt Janice
Published: August 2020

Kiriakoula Hatzikiriakos (Markham, Ontario: LexisNexis Canada Inc, 2006) pp 363 ISBN 0-433-44769-9, £50.00Software copyright is an underexploited source of financing potential for its owners. Despite its considerable economic value, it is a non-traditional intangible asset that is difficult to use as collateral for financial borrowing. As stated by the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit In re World Auxilliary Power Company
WITNESS ANONYMITY AT THE INTERNATIONAL CRIMINAL COURT: DUE PROCESS FOR DEFENDANTS, WITNESSES OR BOTH?
Authors: Welch Tim , Meenagh Martin , M'Boge Yassim
Published: August 2020

The question of how far and in what way to extend protection to witnesses in trials has manifested itself in institutions as diverse as the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), the Committee of the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR), the ad hoc criminal tribunals (International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia, International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, the Special Court for Sierra Leone), and most recently the International Criminal Court (ICC). This is not surprising; as David Lusty has pointed out in his seminal analysis of the use of anonymous accusers, the question has arisen in almost every legal deliberative body for the past two thousand years.
LESSONS FROM GERMANY: SHOULD UK LEGISLATION CIRCUMNAVIGATE OR CIRCUMVENT THE ISSUE OF MALE CIRCUMCISION?
Authors: Dyer Karen
Published: August 2020

Recent Court Action in Cologne Germany has seen rapid response from the German Government, with the German Parliament passing new legislation confirming the lawfulness of ritual circumcision. However there are questions as to whether German Parliament has done enough  This case note looks at the background to the case and considers the ethical implications of this case in parallel to current activity in the UK.The author makes recommendations to minimum legal requirements to current English law in this respect.
THE BRAVE NEW TERRITORY OF GAY PARENTING
Authors: Welstead Mary
Published: August 2020

Many couples in same-sex relationships are as enthusiastic in their desire to become parents as those who are in heterosexual relationships. Adoption, surrogacy, sperm donation, have all enabled same-sex couples to achieve their parental ambitions and create families. For the most part, they have done so without any interference by, or involvement with, the biological parents after the birth of their children.Whilst the majority of lesbian parents tend to use sperm which has been obtained from an anonymous donor, some women have shown a preference to use a sperm donor who is known to them to become the biological father of their children.This may be because they want to know the background, personality and medical history of a potential father before embarking on the procreative process. In some cases, it may also be because some women want their children to have a male role model in their life. Using a known sperm donor can, however, involve risks for would-be-mothers if, contrary to the father’s wishes, they do not want him to play a significant role in the child’s life. Their dreams of creating an autonomous nuclear family may be destroyed and replaced with a new form of extended family, consisting of three or even four parents if the biological father has a partner. The tale recounted in the Appeal Court judgment in A v B and C (Lesbian co-parents: role of father) (2012) is a cautionary one for lesbian would-be-parents and one of hope for potential biological fathers who are known to them. The Court of Appeal emphasised the paramountcy of the welfare principle, contained in s1(1) of the Children Act 1989 in resolving all child contact disputes. It declined to elicit any further principles in these difficult fact specific cases and stated that the sexual orientation of the parents and their pre-conceptual agreements, or understandings, spoken or unspoken are either irrelevant (per Thorpe LJ) or relevant but not determinative (per Black LJ).* Dr Mary Welstead, CAP Fellow, Harvard Law School, Visiting Professor of Family Law, University of Buckingham.[1] Re G; Re Z (Children: Sperm Donors: Leave to Apply for Children Act Orders) [2013] 1 FLR 1334.
BUSINESS, HUMAN RIGHTS AND CHILDREN: THE DEVELOPING INTERNATIONAL AGENDA
Authors: Martin-Ortega Olga , Wallace Rebecca M M
Published: August 2020

The consideration of the role of the private business sector with regards to the fulfilment of children’s rights is relatively recent. International attention on the effects of business activities have on children has been fragmented until now, focussing on specific sectors, mainly child labour and economic exploitation. Recent international developments, addressed both to states and business enterprises, propose a more comprehensive approach. This article focuses on two of them: the UNICEF-Global Compact and Save the Children Children’s Rights and Business Principles (CRB Principles), launched in May 2012, and the Committee on the Rights of the Child’s General Comment No. 16 on state obligations regarding the impact of the business sector on children’s rights, published in April 2013.  Both documents represent an important step in the consolidation of an international agenda for the protection of the rights of the child that takes into account the different challenges faced by children in the current economic system.
MEDIA REPORTAGE OF SEXUAL HARASSMENT: THE (IN)CREDIBLE COMPLAINANT
Authors: Judd Keziah , Easteal Patricia
Published: August 2020

Studies of court and conciliation decisions about credible complainants and legitimate sexual harassment. In determining what is reasonable and indeed in assessing whether behavior was sexual and unwelcome and resulted in humiliation, it is often the complainant’s identity, history and behaviour that are scrutinised and evaluated by conciliators and judicial officers. Youth can enhance credibility if the alleged harasser is older. Also, credible victims fight back, report immediately, are consistent in their evidence, are able to particularise and testify either in a non- aggressive and not too ‘smart’ manner or make an argumentative presentation coupled with confidence. Judicial commentary about the complainant’s relationships, dress and attitudes to sexuality is a chilling echo of Catharine MacKinnon’s 1979 observation that sexual harassment was often dismissed as “trivial, isolated, and ‘personal,’ or as universal ‘natural’ or ‘biological’ behaviours…
FREE COUNTRY
Authors: Scott of Foscote The Rt Hon Lord
Published: August 2020

Sir Sydney Kentridge KCMG, QC, Hart Publishing Oxford 2012 ISBN-10: 1849464677,  ISBN-13: 978-1849464673 Price £20.00 hb‘Free Country’ is a collection of lectures and talks, twelve in all, given by Sir Sydney Kentridge QC, over a period running from 1979 to 2011 and now published as a collection. Sir Sydney became in 2009 an honorary LLD of the University of Buckingham, an addition to the seven or eight honorary degrees that he already held from Universities in England, South Africa and elsewhere in the world. Susan Edwards, Professor in Law at the University of Buckingham, asked me to write a review of “Free Country’ for inclusion in this year’s edition of The Denning Law Journal, published annually by the University. It was an honour and privilege to have received this invitation, my only qualification for which is that besides, like Sir Sydney, having had a career as a lawyer in England, I like him, was educated and brought up in South Africa and, when I came to England,  did so on a South African passport. Having read, and re-read, the remarkable collection of lectures and talks that constitutes ‘Free Country’ I find it impossible to write about the collection without first writing about its very distinguished author.
FEMINIST PERSPECTIVES ON TORT LAW
Authors: Brennan Carol
Published: August 2020

Janice Richardson and Erika Rackley (eds), Routledge 2012, ISBN 978-0415619202 Price £80.00 hbBecause it is the area of civil law with a distinctly human face, students often initially find tort law accessible; sometimes deceptively so. Early on, they are introduced to the importance of policy in the development of case law. Often this policy is not articulated, so a skill must be developed of reading between the lines, in order to discern the influence upon judicial decision-making of concerns such as those about the ‘floodgates’, or perhaps defensive practice. But additionally, both students, their teachers and users of the tort system, must be appraised that explicit assertions about ‘policy’ are premised upon much more fundamental and elusive assumptions about the way society does or should operate.
‘GET OUT OF JAIL FREE’ CARD: THE COURTS’ OFFER OF ASSISTANCE TO ERRANT TRUSTEES
Authors: Colebrook Miguel
Published: August 2020

Decisions taken by trustees have consequences. When trustees make mistakes, especially mistakes that cost the trust fund dearly, can the courts ever erase those errors and let the trustees unwind what they have done and start afresh? To do so, of course, has obvious advantages for both the trustees and those beneficiaries affected by the mistakes, but it is correspondingly disadvantageous for any outsiders who might be equally affected by the court’s decision to erase - in England most typically Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs. For a long time, the answer to the question posed seemed to be yes. This invaluable ‘get out of jail free’ card was delivered to errant trustees by virtue of what was routinely known as the ‘rule in Re Hastings-Bass.’ The Supreme Court, the highest court in the land, has now indicated that this is not right, that Re Hastings-Bass has been misunderstood for over 23 years, and that trustees are not so roundly protected by such a rule. However, in reaching its conclusions, it appears that the Supreme Court may have abolished one rule and replaced it with another, which also seems to benefit trustees.
THE LEGISLATIVE VETO FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE KOSOVO CONSTITUTION
Authors: Morina Visar
Published: August 2020

The Constitution of Kosovo has established a number of mechanisms for the separation of powers and reciprocal checks and balances among which is the President’s authority to return legislation for reconsideration. However, the interaction between the President and the Assembly on matters confronting the legislative veto has unveiled a number of constitutional ambiguities and inconsistencies which rendered involvement of the Constitutional Court necessary to define further the constitutionally-contemplated powers of the President for returning legislation for reconsideration. The article analyses the Presidential legislative veto from the prospect of the 2008 Kosovo Constitution. Through constitutional interpretation and practical cases this article seeks to examine more closely the structural and the functional aspect of the Presidential legislative return statements in post-status Kosovo.
THE SETTING OF THE SUN ON THE VILLAGE GREEN ERA?
Authors: Pratt Natalie
Published: August 2020

The United Kingdom Supreme Court has recently handed down the much anticipated judgment in R (Barkas) v NorthYorkshireCounty Council(“Barkas”).  The case addressed the “by right” defence in village green law and whether use that is pursuant to a statutory right could be use “as of right” for the purposes of village green registration.  The court unanimously ruled that use “by right” could not be considered as use “as of right” and would not be qualifying use for the purposes of registration.  Use will be “by right” when it is pursuant to a statutory right to use the land, and is usually engaged when the land in question is in public ownership.  In reaching this judgment the court overruled the previous authority of R (Beresford) v SunderlandCity Council(“Beresford”).The Supreme Court left many questions unanswered, although the culmination of recent activity in village green law now makes it considerably harder to register new greens.  The inability to protect recreational spaces through village green registration potentially makes this land available for development, thus tipping the balance in favour of the economic aim, at the expense of the social and environmental aims, of sustainable development.
TOWARDS THE REASONABLE ACCOMMODATION OF RELIGIOUS FREEDOM
Authors: Smith Peter
Published: August 2020

The Court of Appeal’s decision in Mrs Mba’s case is notable because: (a) it rejects the qualitative evaluation of her Sabbatarian belief as a “core component” of Christianity in assessing for the purposes of domestic anti-discrimination legislation the proportionality of her employer’s requirement for her to work Sundays; (b) it continues to keep minimal the size of the group required to show group disadvantage; and (c) per Elias LJ and Vos LJ, it finds the assessment of group disadvantage to be incompatible with Article 9 when the ECHR is engaged. The case represents the continued move from a group to an individual focus, and is welcome: it better protects personal religious freedoms. The logical conclusion is for domestic law to oblige employers to reasonably accommodate religious rights via a sui generis legal mechanism.
HUMAN RIGHTS, ‘ARRANGED’ MARRIAGES AND NULLITY LAW: SHOULD CULTURE OVERRIDE OR INFORM FRAUD AND DURESS?
Authors: Scutt Jocelynne
Published: August 2020

Nullity law in Australia and Fiji provides that marriages can be void on various grounds, including duress and fraud. Despite some differences, United Kingdom (UK) law says marriages can be void or voidable on similar grounds. Courts in each jurisdiction have granted annulment in cases of forced marriage where duress “threatens life and limb”. Courts now say lesser force or threats, including pressure to comply with religious or traditional duty, can nullify marriage. Yet courts continue to require high level force such as passport confiscation, physical abuse, threats of eviction from the family home, and economic harm. This, as with allegations of fraud which receive short shrift, results from returning to common law authorities decided before migration resulted in significant demographic changes, particularly regarding culture and religion. UK authority draws a distinction between “forced” and “arranged” marriages, saying nullity is granted rightly in cases of the former, yet because “culture” “sanctifies” the latter, refusing nullity is right. Yet is this distinction valid? Should such marriages be recognised by Australian, Fijian and UK courts as contracted with full and free consent of the parties? An exploration of contemporary cases against the common law background to fraud and duress as nullity grounds indicates that allowing culture to be the measure denies women’s (and sometimes men’s) entitlement to contract marriage with full and free consent according to international human rights law.
Abstract Law and Political Reality in the Post-European-Accession British Constitution
Authors: Bridge J W
Published: August 2020

Abstract Law and Political Reality in the Post-European-Accession British Constitution
IN PRAISE OF COMPARATIVE CONSTITUTIONAL LAW: LESSONS FROM THE COMMONWEALTH
Authors: Hatchard John , Scutt Jecelynne
Published: August 2020

Constitutions come in all shapes and sizes. Some provide for a federal or confederal structure whilst others adopt a unitary model. Internal ethnic, religious or other factors may determine the structure and distribution of constitutional powers, issues that are often of less significance in a constitution written for a more homogenous population
THE COMMONWEALTH PRINCIPLES (LATIMER HOUSE) ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE THREE BRANCHES OF GOVERNMENT: TWENTY YEARS ON
Authors: Slinn Peter , Brewer Karen
Published: August 2020

2018 marks the twentieth anniversary of the Latimer House ‘process’ which commenced with the drafting of the Latimer House Guidelines for the Commonwealth on Good Practice Governing Relations between the Executive, Parliament and the Judiciary. Since then the Latimer House Guidelines have been transformed into the Commonwealth Principles (Latimer House) on the Relationship between the Three Branches of Government which have been endorsed by Commonwealth Heads of Government on several occasions. This article assesses the role of the Latimer House process over the last two decades against the background of the Commonwealth’s evolving commitments to good governance and the rule of law. In Part 1 explores the role of the Commonwealth in supporting good governance and the rule of law whilst Part 2 considers and evaluates the Latimer House process itself. Part 3 reviews the development of the Commonwealth Principles in practice whilst in Part 4 some specific implementation issues concerning the Judiciary are discussed. Part 5 considers the future development of the Commonwealth Principles whilst Part 6 provides a conclusion and overview.
ROAD RULES FOR OUR COUNTRY - AUSTRALIA’S CONSTITUTION AND AUSTRALIA’S FIRST PEOPLES
Authors: Perrett Graham , Dodson Patrick
Published: August 2020

There was a time when most Australian drivers would encounter a particular kind of defaced road sign in their travels. Speeding along the National Highway near the Broome turn-off in Western Australia or dodging kangaroos on the back roads of western Queensland around St George, drivers could see a sign urging them to “FORM ONE LANE” transmogrified by some local wit to read “FORM ONE pLANEt”. Graffiti on signs in a vain attempt to make them say something else can be mildly amusing but completely ineffective. However, while it is dangerous (and illegal) to interfere with road signs, sometimes tinkering with an original symbol can achieve something worthwhile, and substantial.
Does the failure to provide equitable access to treatment lead to action by NHS organisations: the case of biologics for South Asians with inflammatory bowel disease?
Authors: Mayberry John Francis
Published: August 2020

Aims: The purpose of this study was to identify whether NHS Trusts where discrimination in the delivery of care to patients from the South Asian community had been demonstrated had taken any actions to address the issue over the subsequent year.Methods:   Freedom of information requests were sent to three trusts which had provided evidence of disparate provision of biologic therapy to patients with Crohn’s disease, their associated Clinical Commissioning Groups and Healthwatch organisations to seek evidence they had remedied the situation. Requests were also sent to the Care Quality Commission, NHS Improvement and the Equality and Human Rights Commission seeking examples where they had responded to inequitable delivery of care related to ethnicity.Results: No organisation had any evidence of responses to the situation, many unable to accept its existence.Conclusion: Legal duties are discussed and the only remedy appears to be through the tort of negligence.
Mass Torts
Authors: Fleming J G
Published: August 2020

Mass Torts
The Child - A View Across the Tweed
Authors: McKay of Clashfern The Rt Hon Lord
Published: August 2020

The Child - A View Across the Tweed
A Personal View of Justice
Authors: Slade The Rt Hon Lord Justice
Published: August 2020

A Personal View of Justice
Recklessness Re-examined: In Pursuit of the Conscientious Objective
Authors: Davies Mitchell
Published: August 2020

Recklessness Re-examined: In Pursuit of the Conscientious Objective
Implied, Resulting or Constructive Trust?
Authors: Davis B H
Published: August 2020

Implied, Resulting or Constructive Trust?
Brussels 1992 - Philadelphia 1787
Authors: Mackenzie-Stuart The Hon Lord
Published: August 2020

Brussels 1992 - Philadelphia 1787
The Discretion of the Judge
Authors: Bingham The Rt Hon Lord Justice
Published: August 2020

The Discretion of the Judge
Morality, Amorality and Equity
Authors: Sparkes Peter
Published: August 2020

Morality, Amorality and Equity
"We have a law …": The Trials of Jesus of Nazareth
Authors: Booth Roger P
Published: August 2020

"We have a law …": The Trials of Jesus of Nazareth
Governmental Accountability, National Development and the Ombudsman: A Commonwealth Perspective
Authors: Hatchard John
Published: August 2020

Governmental Accountability, National Development and the Ombudsman: A Commonwealth Perspective
Pornography: A Plea for Law Reform
Authors: Edwards Susan
Published: August 2020

Pornography: A Plea for Law Reform
Editorial
Authors: Admin Admin
Published: August 2020

Editorial
Factor tame: Does Britannia Still Rule the Waves?
Authors: Hanlon James
Published: August 2020

Factor tame: Does Britannia Still Rule the Waves?
Reforming the Formal Requirements for the Execution of a Will
Authors: Miller Gareth
Published: August 2020

Reforming the Formal Requirements for the Execution of a Will
EVALUATING THE PREDICTIVE POWER OF AN ENSEMBLE MODEL FOR ECONOMIC SUCCESS OF INDIAN MOVIES
Authors: Gupta Samrat , Kumar Saurabh , Kumar Pradeep
Published: August 2020

The Indian motion picture industry has experienced phenomenal growth during the last few decades and plays an important role in emerging economy of India. This paper integrates three analytical models in order to address the intriguing problem of revenue prediction of movies in Indian film industry. The paper attempts to investigate the determinants leading to the success of indigenous movies in Indian context. Ensemble model has been constructed by integrating the three analytical models (Neural Network, Classification and Regression Tree and Robust Regression) using linear optimization approach. Further, a four-way comparative analysis of these three models along with Ensemble model has been carried out. The predictive power of the models has been evaluated using four performance metrics namely root mean squared error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and large prediction error (LPE). Analyzing novel and original data of 120 Indian movies released during the period August’06-October’15, this paper inspects the nitty-gritties of Indian film industry and seeks to explain the nuances. The study revealed that factors like hype generated on web by a movie, screens on which the movie is released, rating garnered by movie and its genre are the most influential variables in deciding the box-office performance of a movie. Further we observed, that the neural network model closely competes with ensemble model in terms of predictive accuracy. The ensemble model considerably reduces the predictive errors and yields better results on two of the performance metrics.
Forecasting the value effect of Seasoned Equity Offering announcements: Evidence from BRICS and comparative analysis to USA and European Markets
Authors: Huang Zhuqing , Nikolopoulos Kostantinos
Published: August 2020

Purpose –The purpose of this paper is to forecast the value effect of the SEO announcements based on the BRICS stock markets, and to make comparisons with the US and European markets.Design/methodology/approach –China and Russia are picked as representations of the BRICS based on the analysis of the economic growth of the five countries. Historical data from Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and Moscow Stock Exchange (MSE) between 2010 and 2014 were involved. The authors use the abnormal return to quantify the value effect of SEOs and different models were built with the chosen factors. Modelling tools include EViews and SAS, and comparisons were made among the models.Findings –Positive market reactions were observed within two and three days after the SEOs in SSE and MSE respectively, negative market reactions exist in a long-run period after the announcements. The best model for the prediction is the auto-neural model.Research limitations/implications – The sample size could be larger in order to raise the precision of the prediction.Originality/value – Many empirical studies of the SEOs are based on developed markets. However the emerging markets may react differently. This research focuses on the stock markets in BRICS, which could be seen as representations of the emerging markets, thus could provide ideas and clues for relevant stakeholders in emerging markets before the SEO announcements.Keywords SEO, BRICS, Value effect, Neural Networks, SSE, MSEPaper type Research paper
Dynamic Linkages between Singapore and NSE listed NIFTY Futures and NIFTY Spot Markets
Authors: Kotha Kiran Kumar , Bose Shreya
Published: August 2020

This study examines the dynamic linkages of Nifty stock index and Nifty index futures contract traded on the home market, National Stock Exchange (NSE) and on the off-shore market, Singapore Stock Exchange (SGX). The study uses daily closing prices of the Nifty index and the Nifty futures contract traded on both the exchanges for the period July 15, 2010 to July 15, 2016.  The study finds a causality running from the returns of the spot market to the returns from the Nifty futures market in both the exchanges, NSE and SGX, with the help of Vector Error Correction model and Granger causality test. Variance Decomposition and Impulse Response Analysis also confirm that the spot market is the leading market in price discovery, making it the most efficient amongst others.
PREDICTING UPSETS: THE 2017 NCAA MEN’S BASKETBALL TOURNAMENT
Authors: Ford Kelley , Fodor Andy
Published: August 2020

In 2017, approximately 70 million March Madness brackets were completed worldwide, and more than $10 billion was wagered on the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament both legally and otherwise (Goldberg, 2017). The difference between winning and losing in these contests is often one’s ability to correctly predict a few game outcomes where the lower-seeded underdog defeats the higher-seeded favorite in what is known as an upset. As the tournament has expanded and its popularity has increased, the term “upset” has become synonymous with March Madness. These games provide elation or heartbreak for players, coaches, students, fans, alumni, bettors and neutral viewers. On average, there are approximately six upsets annually in Round 1 alone of the NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament. Many theories have been proposed that attempt to identify which matchups will result in upsets. However, most theories rely on “gut feelings” or have a subconscious bias for or against certain teams based on the individual’s rooting interest.Our prediction method combines data sets published by the basketball analytics industry’s foremost experts with historical tournament seed data to accurately predict which March Madness tournament matchups are most likely to result in upsets. It removes personal bias by considering only independently-generated data from neutral sources and provides an objective evaluation of all teams participating in the 2017 NCAA Division I Men’s Basketball Tournament.
EFFICIENCY IN BETTING MARKETS: EVIDENCE FROM ENGLISH FOOTBALL
Authors: Deschamps Bruno , Gergaud Olivier
Published: August 2020

We analyze the efficiency of English football betting markets between 2002 and 2006. We find evidence of a positive favourite-longshot bias for both home odds and away odds. Draw odds are instead characterized by a negative longshot bias. We also identify a draw bias in the sense that betting at draw odds yields a higher return than betting at home or away odds. Finally, we investigate betting strategies that exploit the variance of odds between bookmakers.
THE HIDDEN BEAUTY OF THE QUADRATIC MARKET SCORING RULE: A UNIFORM LIQUIDITY MARKET MAKER, WITH VARIATIONS
Authors: Abramovicz Michael
Published: August 2020

For some applications, prediction markets that rely entirely on voluntary transactions between individual participants may provide insufficient liquidity to aggregate information effectively, especially where the number of participants is small. A solution to this problem is to rely on an automated market maker, which allows participants to buy from or sell to the house. Robin Hanson has described a class of automated market makers called market scoring rules. This Article examines a member of this class that has received little attention, the quadratic market scoring rule. Its prime virtue is that it provides uniform liquidity across the probability or prediction spectrum. Market participants will thus have the same incentive to do research that is expected to produce an expected change in the market prediction, regardless of the current prediction. Formulas are provided for implementing the quadratic market scoring rule, as well as variations, for example to implement conditional markets.
THE PRODUCTION AND PREDICTION OF TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS
Authors: Shilony Yuval
Published: August 2020

Traffic accidents are a painful and costly affliction all over the world. The discussion and debate over the most effective measures to adopt to enhance road safety is often based on folk theories and is not free of private interests and pressures. Road traffic is a complicated system of interactions providing transportation services.  Unfortunately, in conjunction with these services, traffic accidents, an awful public bad, are produced. The purpose of this paper is to study the production relationship, for inter-city transportation, between the physical factors, i.e., highways and vehicles, and traffic accidents. The upshot is prediction ability of accidents in any given road segment, existing or planned. The regretful aspect of roads runs counter to conventional wisdom which, failing to appreciate the quantitative relationship between roads and accidents, often advocates building more and wider roads as the remedy.  The empirically substantiated public bad property of roads, by way of production functions for traffic accidents, is useful for public policy, concerning the investment in highways versus other forms of transportation, such as rail.  They also promote better understanding of traffic accidents and their data and the methodology allows testing hypotheses relating to safety policy. This study sheds light on the enigma of the long-term decline in the probability of death on the road, as observed in many countries, by attributing it to the rising traffic density. The estimation also sheds light on the accident-externality imposed by road users on others. The results suggest that for inter-city roads the risk of fatal and severe accidents is over-internalized by road users as the marginal effect of traffic flow is smaller than the average.
ADAPTING LEAST-SQUARE SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION MODELS TO FORECAST THE OUTCOME OF HORSERACES
Authors: Lessman Stefan , Sung Ming-Chien , Johnson Johnnie E.V.
Published: August 2020

This paper introduces an improved approach for forecasting the outcome of horseraces. Building upon previous literature, a state-of-the-art modelling paradigm is developed which integrates least-square support vector regression and conditional logit procedures to predict horses’ winning probabilities. In order to adapt the least-square support vector regression model to this task, some free parameters have to be determined within a model selection step. Traditionally, this is accomplished by assessing candidate settings in terms of mean-squared error between estimated and actual finishing positions. This paper proposes an augmented approach to organise model selection for horserace forecasting using the concept of ranking borrowed from internet search engine evaluation. In particular, it is shown that the performance of forecasting models can be improved significantly if parameter settings are chosen on the basis of their normalised discounted cumulative gain (i.e. their ability to accurately rank the first few finishers of a race), rather than according to general purpose performance indicators which weight the ability to predict the rank order finish position of all horses equally.
DOES SPORTSBOOK.COM SET POINTSPREADS TO MAXIMIZE PROFITS?
Authors: Paul Rodney J , Weinbach Andrew P.
Published: August 2020

The Levitt (2004) model of sportsbook behavior is tested using actual percentages of dollars bet on NFL games from the internet sportsbook, Sportsbook.com.  Simple regression results suggest that Sportsbook.com sets pointspreads (prices) to maximize profits, as the Levitt model assumes, not to balance the betting dollars, as the traditional model of sportsbook behavior assumes.  Sportsbook.com is found to accept significantly more wagering dollars on road favorites, larger favorites, and on the over for the highest totals in the over/under betting market.  Bettor liquidity constraints and sportsbook betting limits may help explain this result.
TESTING THE EFFICIENCY OF MARKETS IN THE 2002 WORLD CUP
Authors: Ricard Gil Ricard Gil , Levitt Stephen D
Published: August 2020

Trading data from the gambling market for the 2002 World Cup provide a unique window through which to test theories of market efficiency.  This market provides many of the benefits of a laboratory experiment, but with much higher stakes, experienced participants, and a naturally-occurring environment.  The primary drawback of the data is the relatively small number of trades.  The evidence concerning market efficiency is mixed.  Although markets respond strongly to goals being scored, there is some evidence that prices continue to trend higher for 10-15 minutes after a goal.  We also observe systematically negative returns for bets on the pre-game favorite, consistent with the biases seen in wagering on other sports.  We document the endogenous emergence of market makers.  These market makers are involved in a large share of trades.  Increasing from two active market makers to five or more market makers does not appear to improve the functioning of the market.  On average, the market makers earn slightly negative returns, implying that other traders are able to identify situations in which market makers are setting inefficient prices
LONG-TERM FORECASTING WITH PREDICTION MARKETS – A FIELD EXPERIMENT ON APPLICABILITY AND EXPERT CONFIDENCE
Authors: Graefe Andreas , Weinhardt Christof
Published: August 2020

While prediction markets have become increasingly popular to forecast the near-term future, the literature provides little evidence on how they perform for long-term problems. For assessing the long-term, decision-makers traditionally rely on experts, although empirical research disputes the value of expert advice. Reporting on findings from a field experiment in which we implemented two prediction markets in parallel to a Delphi study, this paper addresses two questions. First, we analyze the applicability of prediction markets for long-term problems whose outcome cannot be judged for a long time. Second, by comparing trading behavior of an expert and a student market, we analyze whether there is evidence that supports the assumption that experts possess superior knowledge. Our results show that prediction markets provide similar results as the well-established Delphi method. We conclude that prediction markets appear to be applicable for long-term forecasting. Furthermore, we observe differences in the confidence of experts and non-experts. Our findings indicate that, in contrast to students, experts reveal their information well-considered based on what they think they know. Finally, we discuss how such analyses of market participants’ confidence provide valuable information to decision-makers and may be used to improve on traditional forecasting methods.
EXAMINING TRADER BEHAVIOR IN IDEA MARKETS: AN IMPLEMENTATION OF GE'S IMAGINATION MARKETS
Authors: Spears Brian , LaComb Christina , Interrante John , Barnett Janet , Senturk-Dogonaksoy Deniz
Published: August 2020

We present the outcome of an idea market run for one of GE Energy's sub-businesses in July and August of 2006.  GE Energy used this market to elicit and rank-order technology and product ideas from across the sub-business. In this experiment, we examine the behavior of traders that have submitted the ideas on the market and their influence on the market's outcome. An idea’s submitter is clearly motivated to have his idea valued highly by the market, both by the funding given to the top idea as well as smaller prizes given to the top three ideas. In general, founders tended to buy their suggested ideas at prices above the volume-weighted-average-price (VWAP) in significant volumes. We discuss the implications and mitigation strategies. A survey of market participants yielded mixed results regarding the market's effectiveness at ranking ideas but very positive results regarding the quality of ideas proposed.
PRIVATE PREDICTION MARKETS AND THE LAW
Authors: Bell Tom
Published: August 2020

This paper analyses the legality of private prediction markets under U.S. law, describing both the legal risks they raise and how to manage those risks.  As the label "private" suggests, such markets offer trading not to the public but rather only to members of a particular firm.  The use of private prediction markets has grown in recent years because they can efficiently collect and quantify information that firms find useful in making management decisions.  Along with that considerable benefit, however, comes a worrisome cost:  the risk that running a private prediction market might violate U.S. state or federal laws.  The ends and means of private prediction markets differ materially from those of futures, securities, or gambling markets.  Laws written for those latter three institutions nonetheless threaten to limit or even outlaw private prediction markets.  As the paper details, however, careful legal engineering can protect private prediction markets from violating U.S. laws or suffering crushing regulatory burdens.  The paper concludes with a prediction about the likely form of potential CFTC regulations and a long-term strategy for ensuring the success of private prediction markets under U.S. law.
ON MARKET MAKER FUNCTIONS
Authors: Hanson Robin
Published: August 2020

Since market scoring rules have become popular as a form of market maker, it seems worth reviewing just what such mechanisms are intended to do.The main function performed by most market makers is to serve as an intermediary between people who prefer to trade at different times.  Traders who have the same favorite times to trade can show up together to an ordinary continuous double auction, and then make and accept offers to trade.  But when traders have different favorite times, a market maker can help them by first making offers that some of them will accept, and then later making opposite offers which others will accept.  By adjusting prices in his favor, a market maker can even profit from providing this service.
COMMENT ON BELL ARTICLE
Authors: Litan Bob
Published: August 2020

Almost by definition, all disruptive technologies or innovations threaten vested interests. If markets and the legal environment are sufficiently flexible – and in the United States, for the most they are – innovations that buyers want diffuse throughout the economy despite the opposition.There are cases, however, where the existing order uses the legal system to fight back, to forestall or delay change. Napster is a case in point: it threatened the established recording industry, which eventually persuaded the courts to shut down that particular form of peer-to-peer file transfer. But even in this case, “the law” has failed to stop innovation. Other peer-to-peer networks have found ways to legally permit free Internet-based file transfers, while some companies – notably Apple – have developed business models around paid file transfer
SPORTSBOOK BEHAVIOR IN THE NCAA FOOTBALL BETTING MARKET: TESTS OF THE TRADITIONAL AND LEVITT MODELS OF SPORTSBOOK BEHAVIOR
Authors: Paul Rodney J , Weinbach Andrew P.
Published: August 2020

The predictions of the traditional balanced-book sportsbook model and the alternative Levitt model of sportsbook behavior are tested using actual betting percentages on the favorite/underdog and over/under for NCAA Football.  Sportsbooks are found to not balance betting dollars, which is in contradiction to the assumptions of the traditional models of sportsbook behavior.  In the pointspread market, more bets are placed on the favorite in contests with road favorites and in games with higher pointspreads.  In the totals market, more bets are placed on the over as the total increases and in games on television.  Some support is found for the Levitt model of sportsbook behavior, as sportsbooks appear to price to maximize profits when the behavioral biases of bettors are clear, such as games with road favorites and games with the highest pointspreads and totals.  In all other contests, however, the sportsbook appears to price as a forecast, as each proposition wins half of the time, even in the presence of betting imbalances.
POINT SHAVING IN THE NFL GAMBLING MARKET: A BOOTSTRAP INVESTIGATION
Authors: Diemer George
Published: August 2020

Recent research has examined a statistical phenomenon sometimes associated with point shaving in the NCAA Basketball gambling market.  In a similar fashion, this study examines the NFL gambling market based on 3,641 games over the years 1993-2007.   This research uses a new approach: a bootstrap hypothesis test of equality in the game outcome distributions for large favorites vs. small favorites.  Probability density functions of large favorites vs. small favorites are constructed and compared.  The results are consistent with studies that suggest point shaving exists, and they counter recent claims that the statistical phenomenon are of a more innocent nature.  This research leads to the rejection of the null of no point shaving in the NFL point spread gambling market.
EVIDENCE ON THE FAVORITE-LONGSHOT BIAS AS A SUPPLY-SIDE PHENOMENON
Authors: Metsola Matti
Published: August 2020

The favorite-longshot bias has been referred to as the most longstanding empirical regularity in literature concerning decision-making under uncertainty, as well as a central theme of the literature on betting. However, it has defied authoritative explanation to date. Several attempts have been offered to explain the bias. They can be divided to two main categories: demand-oriented and supply-oriented explanations. This article argues in favour of supply-side explanations. The study is based on comparison of bookmaker odds to betting exchange odds in three betting markets. The data obtained illustrate that the disparity between bookmaker odds and betting exchange prices increases rapidly as the implied probability of the event decreases. This provides an explanation of the favorite-longshot bias which is consistent with earlier empirical research, showing declining expected returns on bets as odds increase. In addition, this explanation is consistent with the evidence concerning the volume of bets actually received by bookmakers.
DO GAMBLERS CORRECTLY PRICE MOMENTUM IN NBA BETTING MARKETS?
Authors: Arkes Jeremy
Published: August 2020

There is little research on whether new information is correctly synthesized in prediction markets.  Previous studies have found evidence consistent with, but have not proved, gambler misperceptions on the existence of momentum effects in the NBA.  I use novel momentum measures that, unlike prior studies, incorporate the strengths of the opponent and the wins (or losses).  With these measures, I test whether gamblers correctly synthesize information on momentum in the NBA.  Contrary to previous studies, I find strong evidence for the existence of a momentum effect.  Furthermore, gamblers incorporate momentum into their beliefs on the game outcomes.  Gamblers, however, significantly overstate the importance of momentum. But, there is little evidence that the extent of this gambler misperception is large enough to generate market inefficiencies, or profit opportunity.  Still, the gambler mis-pricing of the information has implications for how well new information is synthesized in other types of prediction markets.
INTERPRETING POLITICAL PREDICTION MARKET PRICES AS PROBABILITIES: A STUDY OF A 2008 U.S. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION MARKET
Authors: Kros John F , Mai Enping , Keller Christopher M
Published: August 2020

Daily trading in INTRADE’s 2008 U.S. Presidential electoral markets is analyzed in this paper.  INTRADE provides a unique bridge connecting the political voting literature and the price probabilities in the growing prediction market research.  Since these markets involve only fixed return options, it is plausible, assuming risk-neutrality, to interpret the ratio of an option’s price to the option’s fixed return as representing the probability of the option being “in the money”.  Observed price-probability differences are contraindicated by the theory of risk-neutral market efficiency.  Several authors have theorized variously generalized rubrics of non-risk-neutral utility preferences that purport to explain these price-probability differences.   This paper demonstrates, using historical vote participation estimates, that observed price-probability differences can be explained as a function of the variability of voter turnout in a political prediction market.