bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Coupled process simulation of cold extrusion and heat treatment distortion of steel shafts
Authors: Hunkel M. , Nadolski D.
Published: August 2016

A simulation study will be presented regarding effects of cold extrusion – a forming process – on heat treatment distortion of a 20MnCr5 (SAE 5120) steel. Therefore, both cold extrusion and heat treatment simulations with transferring the geometry and the stresses from the cold extrusion to the heat treatment were done. The influence of two degrees of deformation, two friction coefficients, and two heat transfer coefficients between workpiece and tool on the heat treatment distortion was studied. Additionally, heat treatment simulations were done regarding only the geometry without transferring the stress (as machined state). Stress relief annealing and case hardening were applied as heat treatment. Finally, the simulated length changes of the shafts were compared with experimentally determined length changes using different lubricants, degrees of deformation, and heat treatments.
Numerical simulation of the quicksand phenomenon by a 3D coupled Discrete Element ‐ Lattice Boltzmann hydromechanical model
Authors: Mansouri Mouloud , El Youssoufi Moulay Said , Nicot François
Published: August 2016

This paper deals with the numerical simulation of the quicksand phenomenon using a coupled Discrete Elements – Lattice Boltzmann hydromechanical model. After the presentation of the developed numerical model, simulations of ascending fluid flow through granular deposits are performed. The simulations show that the quicksand actually triggers for a hydraulic gradient very close to the critical hydraulic gradient calculated from the global analysis of classical soil mechanics, that is, when the resultant of the applied external pressure balances submerged weight of the deposit. Moreover, they point out that the quicksand phenomenon does not occur only for hydraulic gradients above the critical hydraulic gradient, but also in some cases with slightly lower gradients. In such cases, a more permeable zone is first gradually built at the bottom of the deposit through a grain rearrangement, which increases the hydraulic gradient in the upper zones and triggers the phenomenon. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Artificial Force Induced Reaction Method for Systematic Determination of Complex Reaction Mechanisms
Authors: Sameera W. M. C. , Kumar Sharma Akhilesh , Maeda Satoshi , Morokuma Keiji
Published: August 2016

Nowadays, computational studies are very important for the elucidation of reaction mechanisms and selectivity of complex reactions. However, traditional computational methods usually require an estimated reaction path, mainly driven by limited experimental implications, intuition, and assumptions of stationary points. However, the artificial force induced reaction (AFIR) method in the global reaction route mapping (GRRM) strategy can be used for unbiased and automatic reaction path searches for complex reactions. In this account, we highlight applications of the AFIR method to a variety of reactions (organic, organometallic, enzymatic, and photochemical) of complex molecular systems. In addition, the AFIR method has been successfully used to rationalise the origin of stereo‐ and regioselectivity. The AFIR method can be applied from small to large molecular systems, and will be a very useful tool for the study of complex molecular problems in many areas of chemistry, biology, and material sciences.

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Soil‐nutrient availability and the nutrient‐use efficiencies of forests along an altitudinal gradient on Yakushima Island, Japan
Authors: Mukai Mana , Aiba Shin‐ichiro , Kitayama Kanehiro
Published: August 2016

The vegetation on Yakushima Island, Japan, grows on soils derived from Akahoya volcanic ash, released from the Kikai Caldera about 7300 years ago. The eruption was devastating and it is believed that primary succession and soil formation reinitiated across all altitudes at this point. We hypothesize that the concentrations of soil total phosphorus (P) and labile P fractions increase with increasing altitude because the soil formation has progressed less in upslope areas as a result of the cooler temperature and because of the ample P source of the volcanic ash. Conversely, we hypothesize that the concentration of soil inorganic nitrogen (N) decreases with increasing altitude. Available soil P and N would result in increasing P limitation downslope and increasing N limitation upslope, respectively. We studied soil P fractions and soil inorganic N, and P‐ and N‐use efficiencies of the seven forests on Yakushima along an elevation gradient (170–1550 m a.s.l.). Contrary to our hypotheses, soil total P, labile soil P fractions, and inorganic N decreased with increasing altitude. The P‐ and N‐use efficiencies of the forests were negatively correlated with the concentration of soil total active P (total P minus occluded P) and inorganic N, respectively. We suggest that progressive soil acidity and slower decomposition under cooler and wetter environments upslope must have dissolved the P contained in volcanic ash and accelerated P leaching. Forest ecosystems on Yakushima that show a distinct altitudinal zonation are, therefore, characterized by increasing P and N shortage with increasing altitude.
Determination of Double Bond Positions and Geometry of Methyl Linoleate Isomers with Dimethyl Disulfide Adducts by GC/MS
Authors: Shibamoto Shigeaki , Murata Tasuku , Yamamoto Kouhei
Published: August 2016

The dimethyl disulfide (DMDS) adduct method is one of the convenient and effective methods for determining double bond positions of unsaturated fatty acid methyl esters (FAME) except conjugated FAME. When analyzed using gas chromatography/electron ionization‐mass spectrometry (GC/EI‐MS), unsaturated FAME with DMDS added to the double bonds yields high intensity MS spectra of characteristic ions. The MS spectra of characteristic ions can then be used to easily confirm double bond positions. Here we explore the GC/EI‐MS analysis of the DMDS adducts of methyl linoleate geometrical isomers isolated by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with a silver nitrate column. For C18:2‐c9, c12 and C18:2‐t9, t12, DMDS randomly formed adducts with double bonds at either carbon 9–10 or carbon 12–13, but not both at the same time due to steric hindrance. For C18:2‐c9, t12 and C18:2‐t9, c12, however, DMDS only formed adducts with the double bond in the cis configuration. Consequently, when analyzing fatty acids with methylene interrupted double bonds, with one double bond in the cis and one in the trans configuration, double bond positions cannot be completely confirmed.
Adolescent harm avoidance as a longitudinal predictor of maladaptive cognitive emotion regulation in adulthood: The mediating role of inhibitory control
Authors: Izadpanah Shahrzad , Schumacher Maren , Arens Elisabeth A. , Stopsack Malte , Ulrich Ines , Hansenne Michel , Grabe Hans Jörgen , Barnow Sven
Published: August 2016

The current study investigates the effect of adolescent harm avoidance (HA) on maladaptive cognitive emotion regulation strategies (mCER) in early adulthood. The mediating role of inhibitory control and the moderating effect of gender on this link were also examined. Longitudinal data from 261 adolescents (147 female) were collected in three phases (T0, T1 and T2) over approximately 10 years. Results revealed that, after controlling for HA in adulthood (T2), female adolescents' HA (T0) significantly predicted mCER strategies after 10 years (T2), whereas male adolescents' HA only predicted catastrophizing. In addition, attentional impulsivity (T1) significantly mediated the relation between HA and mCER, though only among women. There was no significant indirect effect for emotional interference and stop‐signal reaction time. Results revealed gender and measure specific associations between HA and inhibitory control and suggest that HA could induce inhibitory deficits leading to mCER.
Defining risk groups of patients with cancer of unknown primary site and cervical nodal metastases by F‐18 fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography and computed tomography imaging
Authors: Su Yung‐Yueh , Chen Shih‐Shin , Hsieh Chia‐Hsun , Liao Chun‐Ta , Lin Chien‐Yu , Kang Chung‐Jan , Yen Tzu‐Chen
Published: August 2016

We sought to investigate the clinical utility of F‐18 fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) positron emission tomography and computed tomography (PET/CT) in Taiwanese patients with cancer of unknown primary site (CUP) and cervical nodal metastases. We also aimed to study the impact of F‐18 FDG PET/CT on clinical treatment priority in this patient group. Between September 2006 and May 2014, patients with CUP and cervical nodal metastases who underwent F‐18 FDG PET/CT imaging study were retrospectively identified. The clinicopathological risk factors and PET parameters were analyzed in relation to 2‐year overall survival (OS) rates using univariate and multivariate analyses. Two‐year OS curves were plotted with the Kaplan–Meier method. Of the eligible patients (n = 54), 12 (22.2%) had distant metastases (DM) at presentation. A total of 13 (24.1%) and 15 (27.8%) primary tumors were identified by FDG PET/CT imaging and an additional triple biopsy, respectively. The results of multivariate analysis identified smoking [p = 0.033, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.197−40.342], a maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) of cervical nodes ≥ 14.2 (p = 0.035, 95% CI = 1.134−28.029), and DM at presentation (p = 0.031, 95% CI = 1.257−114.854) as independent predictors of 2‐year OS. Specifically, patients who carried ≥ 2 risk factors showed poorer outcomes (70.3% vs. 11.8%, p < 0.001). Fifteen study patients (27.8%) had their treatment modified by FDG PET/CT findings. We conclude that FDG PET/CT is clinically useful in CUP patients not only for tumor staging, but also for modifying treatment regimens.
Physicochemical parameters of crystallization of melts in intermediate suprasubduction chambers (by the example of Tolbachik and Ichinskii Volcanoes, Kamchatka Peninsula)
Authors: Dobretsov N.L. , Simonov V.A. , Kotlyarov A.V. , Kulakov R.Yu. , Karmanov N.S.
Published: August 2016

In study of plagioclases, amphiboles, and melt inclusions, we have determined the physicochemical parameters of crystallization of melts in the intermediate suprasubduction chambers of volcanoes representing different types of subduction magmatism on the Kamchatka Peninsula: the young basaltic systems of Tolbachik Volcano (Klyuchevskaya group) and ancient Ichinskii Volcano (Sredinnyi Ridge) with alternating basaltic and felsic eruptions. For Tolbachik Volcano, we have found that plagioclase lapilli formed from basaltic melts at 1075–1115 °C and low (≤1 kbar) pressures at depths of 2–3 km. Andesite minerals crystallized within a wider range of temperatures and pressures (1220–1020 °C and 3.3–1.6 kbar) in an intermediate chamber at depths of ≤10 km. The melts were generated in basaltic magma chambers (detected well by geophysical methods at depths of 18–20 km) with minimum temperatures of ~1290 °C. For Ichinskii Volcano, three levels of intermediate chambers are distinguished. Andesites formed at depths of ≤23 km at ≤1225 °C. Dacitic melts were generated from an intermediate chamber (14 km) at 1135–1045 °C as a result of differentiation of andesitic magmas. Dacites formed in the uppermost horizons (9–3 km) at 1130–1030 °C. Despite the similarity between differentiation processes in the intermediate chambers of the Kamchatka volcanoes, each volcano is characterized by specific magmatism. The lavas of basaltic volcanoes (Tolbachik) and those of andesitic volcanoes (Ichinskii) differ in genesis and differentiation.
Oratory and Political Career in the Late Roman Republic
Authors: van der Blom Henriette
Published: August 2016

Oratory and Political Career in the Late Roman Republic is a pioneering investigation into political life in the late Roman Republic. It explores the nature and extent to which Roman politicians embraced oratorical performances as part of their political career and how such performances influenced the careers of individual orators such as Gaius Gracchus, Pompeius Magnus, and Julius Caesar. Through six case studies, this book presents a complex and multifaceted picture of how Roman politicians employed oratory to articulate their personal and political agendas, to present themselves to a public obsessed with individual achievement, and ultimately to promote their individual careers. By dealing specifically with orators other than Cicero, this study offers much-needed alternatives to our understanding of public oratory in Rome. Moreover, the assessment of the impact of public speeches on the development of political careers provides new perspectives on the hotly debated nature of republican political culture.
Using Japanese Synonyms
Authors: Backhouse A. E.
Published: August 2016

Being a successful speaker of a given language involves control of the meaning and use of vocabulary items, taking in their lexical content (what phenomena they refer to), combinatorial behaviour (what items they occur with) and situational characteristics (e.g. as colloquial or formal terms). This essential reference book provides clear information on these aspects for around three hundred groups of Japanese near-synonyms, supplemented by a wide range of authentic examples. The result is a clear profile of the meaning and use of each item, highlighting similarities and distinctions among neighbouring terms and expanding learners' lexical range. The book is designed primarily for English-speaking learners, and the selection of groups and items and the overall treatment adopted reflects the author's extensive experience in teaching Japanese to English speakers. Japanese forms and examples appear in both romanisation and Japanese orthography, and the bilingual indexes allow readers to locate synonyms quickly and easily.
The Price of a Vote in the Middle East
Authors: Corstange Daniel
Published: August 2016

Clientelism and ethnic favoritism appear to go hand in hand in many diverse societies in the developing world. But, while some ethnic communities receive generous material rewards for their political support, others receive very modest payoffs. The Price of a Vote in the Middle East examines this key - and often overlooked - component of clientelism. The author draws on elite interviews and original survey data collected during his years of field research in Lebanon and Yemen; two Arab countries in which political constituencies follow sectarian, regional, and tribal divisions. He demonstrates that voters in internally-competitive communal groups receive more, and better, payoffs for their political support than voters trapped in uncompetitive groups dominated by a single, hegemonic leader. Ultimately, politicians provide services when compelled by competitive pressures to do so, whereas leaders sheltered from competition can, and do, take their supporters for granted.
Performance, Memory, and Processions in Ancient Rome
Authors: Latham Jacob A.
Published: August 2016

The pompa circensis, the procession which preceded the chariot races in the arena, was both a prominent political pageant and a hallowed religious ritual. Traversing a landscape of memory, the procession wove together spaces and institutions, monuments and performers, gods and humans into an image of the city, whose contours shifted as Rome changed. In the late Republic, the parade produced an image of Rome as the senate and the people with their gods - a deeply traditional symbol of the city which was transformed during the empire when an imperial image was built on top of the republican one. In late antiquity, the procession fashioned a multiplicity of Romes: imperial, traditional, and Christian. In this book, Jacob A. Latham explores the webs of symbolic meanings in the play between performance and itinerary, tracing the transformations of the circus procession from the late Republic to late antiquity.
Pompeii AD 79: A Natural Bone Diagenesis Experiment
Authors: Zazzo Antoine , Lepetz Sébastien
Published: August 2016

This study aims at comparing the reliability of different types of apatite fractions for which collagen cannot be dated. We focused on the remains of individuals found at the necropolis of Porta Nocera near Pompeii, and for which the date of burial can be assessed independently. The dated human samples range between 1805±49 and 5570±120 14C yr BP and can display a large (up to 1200 14C yr) intra-individual age variability. We show that while a marine diet or an old-wood effect could explain the smallest age shifts, they are not able to explain the largest ones, and propose diagenesis as the main cause. The 14C depletion is likely due to the influence of the 14C-free CO2 emissions of the nearby Vesuvius volcano and the Campi Flegrei volcanic system on the age of secondary carbonate incorporated into the bone and enamel crystallites during diagenesis. This study demonstrates that in volcanic contexts, a large deviation from expected age can be measured, even in calcined apatites. Our calculations indicate that while the absolute amount of contamination is lower in calcined bones than in burnt bone and enamel apatite, its impact on the 14C age of the sample can be much higher due to the low carbon content of calcined bones.
Radiocarbon Age of Soil Organic Matter Fractions Buried by Tephra in Alaska
Authors: Cherkinsky Alexander , Wallace Kristi
Published: August 2016

Radiocarbon ages were determined on different fractions extracted from buried paleosols in south-central Alaska as an experiment to establish best practices for analysis of low-organic-matter paleosols. Seven samples were collected from directly beneath tephra deposits to determine the eruption frequency of Mount Spurr Volcano, Alaska. Soil development near the volcano is poor due to the high-latitude climate and frequent burial of soil surfaces by tephra. Contamination of soils by local wind-blown material is a concern. The humic acid 14C ages are consistently younger than both the bulk soil and residue after extraction ages. The difference in ages between the humic acid extract and bulk soil range from 60–1130 14C yr BP and 180–4110 14C yr BP, respectively, for residue. Previous observations from dating different soil fractions show that residue ages are typically younger than humic acid extracts presumably because they contain a fraction of younger plant material including roots. We attribute the older ages to contamination by old carbon from eolian charcoal particles. This study supports the use of accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dating of the humic acid fraction in order to estimate the age of soil that presumably marks the age of burial and avoids suspected contamination by old carbon.
A Mexican Personalist: Antonio Caso (1883–1946)
Authors: Reinhardt Kurt F.
Published: August 2016

If the “Good Neighbor Policy” were a fact rather than a political slogan or at best a pious wish, the life, work, and death of one of the great thinkers, writers, and teachers of the Western Hemisphere could hardly have passed almost without being noticed in the Anglo-Saxon part of the American continent. On March 6th of this year died in Mexico City Antonio Caso, mourned by Mexico and her Ibero-American sister republics as well as by three generations of students who in their minds and hearts bear indelibly the moral stamina which they received in the classes taught by their beloved maestro in the Escuela Preparatoria and the Universidad Nacional Autónoma of Mexico. José Vasconcelos, in his funeral oration, recognized in his departed compatriot “the most eloquent voice of Mexican philosophy, that voice which kindled in human minds the love for truth and beauty”, and then recalled in this personal apostrophe the great scholarly and human qualities of Antonio Caso: “You were,” he said, “a despiser of everything vile and wicked; you were disdainful of money, and you turned your back on power…. With your great gifts you might have gained materially comfortable positions of influence. Many times Fortuna knocked at your door, but you refused to open because you had decided to remain loyal to your vocation as a thinker. … Meanwhile, your conscience stayed wide awake, sensitive to noble actions and sublime ideas…. Those who follow your leadership recognized in your balanced mind the marks of the classicist; in your sensitivity, those of the romanticist; in the integrity of your conduct, those of the gentleman. Maestro completo: wherever there is a school, there is your fatherland. Mexicano universal: through you our nation occupies a distinguished place in contemporary thought.”
Sustainability and Shared Value in the Interwar Swedish Copper Industry
Authors: Bergquist Ann-Kristin , Lindmark Magnus
Published: August 2016

This study of the Swedish-based mining company Boliden examines the proactive strategies it adopted to deal with the potential for severe environmental problems associated with the establishment of its large copper smelter in the 1920s. The article demonstrates how international networks, personal experience, and knowledge transfer from the U.S. copper industry help to explain the importance given to environmental issues by the Swedish industrialists. It is suggested that the main explanation for the proactive stance of the Swedish managers is that they perceived excessive pollution as working against creating a profitable and sustainable business. This case provides compelling evidence that firms pursuing an agenda focused on earning profits can still deliver environmental innovation and value to the local community, compatible with the concept of creating shared value.
Some Notes on Indian Railway Securities.
Authors: Phillips Ernest W.
Published: August 2016

In considering Indian Railway Securities as investments it is advisable to have a knowledge of the history of the railways. The first lines to be built in India were constructed by Companies on land supplied free by the East India Company, who also guaranteed that a certain rate of interest should be paid each year on the capital expended with their approval. This arrangement was made with the idea of attracting Companies to build lines, and in return the East India Company had the right to exercise a certain amount of supervision and control and also had certain options of purchase. When in a position to do so, the Companies repaid each year, to the extent of one half the excess net earnings in that year, any amounts paid by the East India Company under the guarantee arrangements.
Bimetallism
Authors: Reeve G. M.
Published: August 2016

The subject of Bimetallism is not a burning question now as it was some few years ago, but it is worth while to consider the arguments used for and against, as it is possible thereby to obtain an idea of the principles underlying currency problems.

1. Alleged evils—

(a) A great fall in gold prices, causing

(1) A disturbance of the standard of value,

(2) Increased burden on debtors,

(3) Discouragement of industry.
The Reorganisation of Friendly Societies in Connection with the National Insurance Act.
Authors: Brown H.
Published: August 2016

All the larger Friendly Societies and many of the smaller ones have organised separate sections for administering the benefits of the Act to their Members and to others insured under the Act. In some Societies this course was opposed on the ground that the admission of a new class of lives might lead to an unfavourable sickness experience in the State Section, and that unfavourable results in that Section might react on the prosperity of the voluntary side of the Society. But the consideration which outweighed all others with the majority of Members was that the Voluntary Sections of Societies would in future be largely recruited from their State Sections, and that any Society which did not organise a State Section would be likely to die out from lack of new Members—a prospect very distasteful to Members of Friendly Societies, even though it might not involve any pecuniary loss to them.
Income Tax and the Basis of Assessment of Insurance Offices.
Authors: Recknell G. H.
Published: August 2016

The first Income Tax proper was the Income Tax Act of 1799 imposed by Pitt as a more or less temporary measure intended to finance the war with France.

Subsequent amending Acts were passed in 1803, 1805 and 1806. In 1816—just after Waterloo—the Tax was abolished and remained in oblivion for 26 years. In 1842 it was resuscitated by Sir Robert Peel, who was responsible for the Income Tax Act of 1842, and the Tax has remained in force ever since as a permanent and increasingly important part of our financial system. Of the Acts subsequent to 1842 the most important is the Act of 1853 when Gladstone left his mark on the Tax in several important particulars.

Up till 1860 the annual Act by which the Tax is imposed was known as the Income Tax Act. From that time onwards—in order to make it more difficult for the House of Lords to exercise their constitutional right to reject money bills—the Tax, along with several others, was incorporated into one Act called the Customs and Inland Revenue Act. In 1894 the title was changed to the Finance Act, by which name it has been known ever since.
Non-Profit Office Premiums
Authors: Rich C. D.
Published: August 2016

The following remarks refer to the determination of Non-Profit Whole Life Assurance and Endowment Assurance office premiums; many of the principles raised apply to the premiums for other types of policies.

The office premium depends on the rates of mortality, interest, expense and loading for profit used in its calculation; we shall be concerned mainly to determine what values to give these factors, and the values chosen will form our premium bases. There is no reason to assume that we should give the factors the same values for all policies; for instance we might be justified in taking a lower rate of expense for policies of large sum assured than for policies of small sum assured.
Lecture on the Establishment of a Contributory Staff Pension Fund
Authors: Clinton L. E.
Published: August 2016

In order to cover all the ground, I think it will be best if I try to give you my line of thought in dealing with a large Industrial Company desirous of establishing a Contributory Pension Fund, but in this connection I shall not discuss formulae or the construction of Valuation Factors.

I do not propose to dwell at length on Schemes under what is known as the “Money Purchase Plan” or, in other words, a series of deferred Annuities, where each Contribution purchases a definite amount of deferred Annuity. Except in the case of a very small Staff or a group of small Staffs where the numbers are few and where the salaries cover a wide range, such a Scheme does not meet the needs of the Staff and moreover, it is very inflexible. In fact, it is impossible to form a Scheme on this basis where the Pensions are to be calculated as a percentage of the retiring salary or wages or an average of the salary or wages received during the five or seven years prior to retirement. Further, no provision is made for Incapacity Pensions and, if Contributions are fixed, no definite relation can be established between Pension and retiring Salary or Wages.
Group Insurance and Group Pension Schemes
Authors: Turner N. C.
Published: August 2016

The subject of Group Life Insurance schemes has been quite recently discussed by the Society (J.S.S. Vol. III. No. 3) and no useful purpose can be served by a repetition of remarks regarding such schemes.

However, there are two points which deserve further consideration. The first of these relates to what might be termed underwriting rules—or, in other words, regulations to which every contract must conform. Each individual contract should be written, so far as possible, on such a basis as will preclude the writing of unsatisfactory business and in this connection such points as the number of lives to be covered, maximum and minimum amounts of insurance, etc., fall to be considered.
Industrial Assurance: Valuations, Office Premiums and Bonus Systems
Authors: Marshall C. G.
Published: August 2016

The title to this paper covers a very wide field and unless each of the subjects was dealt with somewhat briefly, the paper would be of inordinate length.

The general principles on which a valuation should be made are the same for Industrial as for Ordinary Assurance business. The methods adopted differ, however, one of the main differences being the system of grouping the policies in “select” form, either by calendar year of issue, sub-grouped by age at entry, or by age at entry sub-grouped by year of issue, the former being possibly the more popular and the one described in these notes. One of the original reasons for this form of grouping was the system of increasing the sums assured after a policy had been five years in force and again after it had been ten years in force, and in consequence the duration of the policies had to be taken into account in the valuation.
Bonus Distributions: A Study in Differences.
Authors: Elderton W. Palin
Published: August 2016

In America distributions of bonus are made on a “contribution” method, but in Great Britain most of the offices use a bonus system of the compound reversionary or the simple reversionary type. To an actuary practising in England a contribution method seems to entail a great amount of work and may not reach exactitude in the end; while an actuary practising in America must, I think, feel inclined to ask English actuaries how they reach fairness between different classes and different ages at entry.

If we define “fairness” for our present purpose as such a distribution as leads to an equation at the outset between the present values, on an experience basis, of benefits on the one hand and of premiums (less expenses) on the other, then a complete contribution method will provide “fair” bonuses whatever the basis of valuation; and this is true though the valuation basis may be far removed from actual facts and though the “profits” in the valuation sense, from interest, loading, withdrawals and mortality, bear no relation to the premiums or the facts assumed in calculating those premiums.
Family Income Policies
Authors: Hampton E. , Marples W. F.
Published: August 2016

This type of policy was introduced into British Life Office practice some three years ago and rapidly proved most attractive; so much so that a leading office announced that it obtained over £2,000,000 new Sums Assured under this class of contract within a year of issuing the prospectus. Details of the schemes of no less than forty-six offices are available. On the academic side, the examiners have shown their appreciation of its possibilities by setting questions concerning calculation of premiums, valuation, etc., in the examinations of both the Institute and the Faculty of Actuaries.

Sufficient time has now elapsed since the commencement of this type of business for the problems involved to force themselves into notice. Certain of these problems are dealt with in the following note.
The Statistical Basis of the Numerical Rating System
Authors: Chiles A. B.
Published: August 2016

A great deal of interest was aroused by a paper entitled “The Numerical Rating System,” which was submitted to this Society by Mr. C. F. Wood a few years ago. In that paper Mr. Wood showed how the numerical ratings are used in arriving at the final terms, standard or otherwise, on which policies are issued. A basic rating for build ranging from 95 upwards, is first determined and to this basic rating are added ratings for any adverse features that are reported, these additional ratings varying from as few as 10 points for minor impairments such as remote history of pleurisy or kidney disease, slightly elevated blood pressure and absence of longevity in family history, to heavy ratings of 100 or more for very serious impairments such as mitral regurgitation and other heart impairments, glycosuria and recent history of pulmonary tuberculosis. Having allotted the appropriate numerical ratings to each adverse feature, the total is obtained and from it are deducted certain small allowances for plan and good family history if the case is entitled to them.
Priority percentages and profits tax
Authors: Knapman G. J.
Published: August 2016

Priority percentages are generally calculated when considering an investment in a joint-stock company with the intention of finding two limits, which may be defined as follows:

The lower limit is the percentage of net profits (after all expenses other than British taxation) which would just suffice to pay all prior charges and dividends on stock ranking prior to the stock under consideration.

The upper limit is the percentage of net profits which would just suffice to pay the dividend on the stock under consideration and all prior charges and dividends.

Now that profits tax is as much as 30% with a rebate of 20% on profits not distributed, it is important to consider to what extent profits tax should be treated as a prior charge.

An example of what may be described as the ‘normal’ method of calculating priority percentages is given on p. 186 of the new textbook, Principles of Finance and Investment, by L. G. Whyte, F.F.A. The whole of the profits tax, allowing for the rebate on profits not distributed is shown as a prior charge to all dividends. This appears to be the method used by the two principal statistical services.
The measurement of the intensity of marriage with allowance for the relative numbers and age distributions of the sexes.
Authors: Pollard A. H.
Published: August 2016

Measures of marriage based on the data for one sex only do not give a fair comparison between two communities unless the relative numbers and ages of the sexes available for marriage are the same in both. Such a similarity is unlikely to exist; in 1921, for example, at ages 15–54 the number of marriageable women was 87% of the number of marriageable men in New Zealand but the corresponding ratio in England and Wales was 119%, and this fell to 113% by 1931.

W. S. Hocking discussed the balance of the sexes in Great Britain inJ.I.A.(74, 340) and showed the extent of variations in the relative numbers available for marriage in England and Wales in thisJournal(10, 24). It is desirable in a number of problems to be able to make some allowance for such variations, particularly in connexion with the measurement of reproduction, depending as it does on marriage intensity.
The decline in spinsterhood (continued).
Authors: Hocking W. S.
Published: August 2016

Some three years ago a note in this Journal (J.S.S.
10, 24) called attention to the rapid decline that was taking place in the numbers of unmarried women in this country, due to the fact that the number of marriages was exceeding the number of young women reaching the marriageable ages. During the past three years statistics of a further three or four years' marriages have been issued and a sample analysis of the total population enumerated at the 1951 Census has been published. It may be of interest, therefore, to examine these data to see whether the trends exhibited in the years up to 1947–48 have continued and whether the 1951 Census results confirm the estimates given by the Registrar General for the inter-war years.

The first assertion made in the note referred to is that ‘a considerable fall in the number of marriages, to be followed by a consequential fall in the number of births, is almost inevitable during the next few years’. As the number of marriages in England and Wales in the years 1950–52 averaged only 356,000, whereas during the period 1939–47 the average level was 385,000 a year, the first part of the assertion is being substantiated.
The Distribution of Quasi-Ranges in Samples from Rectangular and Exponential Distributions
Authors: Ghosal A.
Published: August 2016

For the past few years, stimulating research has been carried out on ordered statistics. Linear combinations of the sample ordered values are used to provide estimates of parameters of the population from which the sample is drawn. Such statistics are termed systematic by Mosteller. They are in common use, because they provide simple solutions of parametric problems of statistical estimation. Often they are inefficient, but this drawback is sometimes more than offset by the ease with which the calculations are performed.

Mosteller drew attention to the possible use of the statisticsWr, which he called quasi-range ofrth order and defined as

wherex1,x2,…,xnare ordered observations in a sample ofnfrom a populationf(x) (x1<x2< … <xn). The distributions of quasiranges in samples drawn from a normal population have been studied by Godwin and Cadwell.
Discussion
Authors: Mallett R. G.
Published: August 2016

It is a matter of some regret to me that a member of the Actuarial Society of South Africa cannot be here this evening to provide an introduction to the paper before you. While I feel I am honoured by my South African friends in being asked, as an ex member of the Society, to undertake this duty, I must confess that I am wondering whether my personal experience is sufficient to qualify me for this task.

For much of his work the actuary is concerned with the people living around him and I think therefore that I should say something about the people living in the Union of South Africa.

South Africa was first discovered around the end of the fifteenth century, but it was not until 1652 that the first settlement was made by the Dutch East India Company. The settlers were under the control of Jan van Riebeeck who was charged with the duty of providing fresh vegetables, etc., for replenishing the stores of ships rounding the Cape.
An Automation Plan for an Industrial Assurance Office.
Authors: Goshawke W. J.
Published: August 2016

This paper describes a scheme for the automation of an industrial assurance office. No advice has been sought from manufacturers and the method has not been tested on a computer. The aim is to stimulate discussion of the subject and to help students to form an opinion as to whether, and to what extent, a computer can be of use in this type of work. Those students who are unfamiliar with the terms used in discussing electronic computers or industrial assurance are recommended to read §§VII and VIII of the paper first.
The Schedules to the Assurance Companies Act, 1909
Authors: O'Brien C. M.
Published: August 2016

These remarks were set down in 1958 before the Insurance Companies Act 1958 was enacted. The new Act is a consolidating Act and, apart from a few alterations to achieve greater clarity, makes no alteration to the law as it affects Life Assurance business.

The new Act does not, however, include the former Schedules 1 to 5 of the Assurance Companies Act 1909 but leaves the Board of Trade to prescribe them. (Reference is made in these remarks to the powers previously available to the Board of Trade.) The Act required the Board of Trade to prescribe appropriate Schedules without delay and, in fact, the original 1909 Act Schedules have been prescribed without change.

It is understood that this is essentially a temporary measure, as the time available was not sufficient to allow adequate consideration to be given to any possible changes. It is, however, expected that the Schedules will be revised in the relatively near future.
An Estimate of the Future Population of England and Wales
Authors: Ford J. R. , Stewart C. M.
Published: August 2016

In 1944 the Royal Commission on Population was set up in order to determine the probable consequences of population trends then current. In order to do this they prepared a range of sixteen separate population projections for Great Britain based on various combinations of assumptions as to mortality, fertility (and marriage), and migration. The method used, in which each component of population change i.e. birth, death and migration receives separate treatment, is generally known as the component method. This distinguishes it from cruder methods based on the assumption that the total numbers in a population follow some mathematical formula.

Since the Royal Commission reported, this method has continued to be used in preparing what may perhaps be described as the ‘official’ projections of the population of England and Wales.
The Rhythm of Life Office Surplus and Bonus Distribution under Modern Conditions
Authors: Clarke A. S.
Published: August 2016

The question of bonus distributions has been much in the minds of actuaries during the post-war period. In October 1959 a paper was submitted by Benz to the Institute of Actuaries which he introduced with the following remarks: ‘Recent financial events have caused new problems to come before actuaries when advising on the finances of life offices and, in particular, on bonus distributions to with-profit policyholders. These problems may be said very briefly to centre around the question of what circumstances make it appropriate for an office to depart from the normal procedure for distributing bonuses.’
Office Methods for Dealing With Ordinary Life New Business
Authors: Scattergood W. D.
Published: August 2016

1. The purpose of this paper is to consider procedures involved and the records and documents required after a life proposal has been accepted. It is mainly concerned with a particular office using a punched card system, the changes which have taken place and the further changes in prospect as other office machinery is brought into use.

In particular, the use of automatic typewriters for the production of policy and other documents is examined.

In the office concerned there has been a rapid expansion both in quantity of business and diversity in type of business. The tendency has been for a multiplicity of records to be built up for reference purposes and to control the Powers punched cards used for premium collection, valuation, etc. Energetic attempts have been made from time to time to reduce the work involved in setting up, housing, and accurately maintaining these records.
Some Uses of Industrial Sickness-Absence Data.
Authors: Raffle P. A. B.
Published: August 2016

During the 1930s there were allegations that London bus drivers and conductors had an undue amount of sickness, especially gastric disorders. Dr Bradford Hill (1937) was asked to investigate this allegation, but found that the data were limited. The London Passenger Transport Board determined that in the future adequate data for such investigations should be available. This was not possible until after the war. In 1948 the Central Record of Staff Statistics was set up to compile sickness-absence statistics and for other purposes. This lecture is mainly an account of the uses made of the statistics produced: how they can be used to study the effect of sick pay provisions, the secular trend of sickness absence in occupational groups, and the differences in sickness-absence experience between groups of various kinds. If the experience of these groups is related to the employees' work and the conditions under which it is done, the results are valuable in answering questions on health from management and unions. The data collected can also be used in medical administration and for research into the causation of disease.
Some Aspects of Life Office Administration
Authors: Corby F. B.
Published: August 2016

These notes are concerned with the related subjects of expenses and their control, and forward planning in a life office. Little attention has been paid to the subject of expenses in the proceedings of either the Institute or the Students' Society in recent years, with the notable exception of the paper by Dyson and Elphinstone (1959), although expenses formed Subject 1 of the 17th International Congress. Forward planning of a life assurance company as a whole has received even less attention in our proceedings. This is in some ways not surprising since the problems are in the main managerial rather than strictly actuarial, but even if this is accepted they are nevertheless problems with which many actuaries have to deal, and this neglect is regrettable.
II Credibility Theory
Authors: Shaw G. J. M.
Published: August 2016

Actuaries often need to construct a mathematical model, representing the expected future experience of a group of risks, where the data available from the group are not large enough to provide results which are sufficient for this purpose. A wider experience derived from risks, which have some features in common with the group's risks, must be combined with that of the group in such a way that the weight attached to the group's experience in the combination corresponds with its value for rating purposes.
III Practice of Fire Insurance
Authors: Scurfield H. H.
Published: August 2016

Fire insurance, which often includes cover for flood, riot, earthquake and storm, can be divided into four classes:

1.P.D.H.—Private dwelling house.

2.Householder's Comprehensive—In addition to providing the cover as for P.D.H. this also includes other ancillary risks many of which are optional, including those for burglary and personal accident.

3.Industrial Fire—Risks range from farms and small shops to vast industrial complexes. The insurance is against damage to property and contents.

4.Consequential Loss of Profits—Over and above the material damage sustained, there is in most cases a loss of profit arising out of the interruption and a need to go on paying various standing charges, despite the fact that there may be no income. This type of cover, which is usually ‘tailor-made’ to fit the precise requirements, is intended to provide for any additional loss arising out of a fire or the occurrence of any other insured peril.
A Computer approach to ordinary Life Assurance Policy Valuation—A new look at concepts
Authors: Whittaker Graham
Published: August 2016

This paper has been written as an ‘Expository Article’ and, as such, is not meant to be complete. Its main object is to describe useful concepts and methods that are not covered by the standard reading for the Institute's examinations. As the title of the paper implies not all of these concepts are new. Some, in fact, are first principles which are particularly useful when performing an actuarial valuation using a computer. The title also suggests that the paper is confined to Ordinary Life business. However, much of what is said could also be applied to Industrial or even Non-life business.
Words and Numbers
Authors: Redington F. M.
Published: August 2016

When I realized that this was a jubilee lecture my mind flew to our 21st supper and celebration. The guest of honour was Sir Andrew, then Mr. Rowell. When the waitresses had cleared the tables he rose to propose our health and said he was glad to be able to welcome us among the grown-ups; that weweregrown-up he knew because he had just seen the women take our napkins away.

No-one can emulate Sir Andrew but I share his pleasure. One of the sweetest fruits of autumn is a smile of welcome from the young. So, thank you. Another reason is that I've loved many things in life from Lancashire hot-pot to Shirley MacLaine, but most of all I love a captive audience. So thank you twice.

To have leisure is to have time to stand and stare. It is a hill with a perspective. When I look around from the hill of leisure which I now enjoy–and enjoy is the word–I sometimes catch a glimpse of that other hill, 45 years down the road, from which I peered forward in my student days. Much has happened since then which seemed important at the time to that little figure scurrying along the road, but surveying the whole scene there has been an unbelievable change.
The Gilt-Edged Market Revisited
Authors: Hamilton J. M.
Published: August 2016

An investor who put £1,000 into 2½% Consols at the end of 1947 and reinvested all his gross income in the same stock at the end of each year would at the end of 1970 have stock valued at £921. Adjusted to take account of inflation, in 1947 £'s his investment with all income reinvested is worth £365. Why bother to revisit the gilt-edged market?

An investor who put £1,000 into 2½% Consols at the beginning of January 1971 and reinvested the gross dividends as they were received in the same stock would, by the middle of September 1971, hold stock worth £1,194. He is showing a 19% return on his investment after under ten months. I do not wish to draw the conclusion that we have reached a new dawn in the gilt-edged market. I draw the conclusion that money can still be made in gilts. It is a market worth revisiting.