Investigating the impact of gamified forecasting on political engagement
Authors:   , Bromfield Louis R. W. 
Published: September 2024

This thesis examines the impact of gamified political forecasting on political engagement. It does this through the creation of a web application called Fantasy Forecast. Formally, it addresses the following overarching research question:What are the effects of gamified political forecasting on the political engagement of citizens?The contribution of the thesis lies in its focus on the effects of political forecasting on citizens, with a particular emphasis on political engagement, theorised and operationalised through the theoretical and design logic of gamification. In doing so, this work moves the political forecasting literature more explicitly into the domain of political engagement, which is the key dependent variable of the study. Concurrently, the thesis argues for conceptual and empirical refinement of the measurement and study of political engagement, which it undertakes both theoretically and analytically - through the integration of a gamification based-framework that aligns with political psychology. The thesis is unique in putting these ideas into action in the form of a bespoke web application, combined with an empirical exploration comprising experimental data collection and analysis. As such, it moves the study of political forecasting, engagement, and gamification forward through a combination of theoretical empirical innovation.The thesis tackles its research question by firstly conducting a thorough review of the literatures on political engagement, gamification and forecasting. The discussed research is used to aid the second chapter which focuses on the design and implementation of Fantasy, covering iterative development and user feedback. In the third chapter, a theoretical framework is established, situating the research within a wider political psychology paradigm before developing and specifying many hypotheses that will be tested in the empirical analysis of users’ experience of the Fantasy Forecast web application. This is followed by an outline of the methodological approach adopted in the thesis, contextualising this work epistemologically and evaluating the quantitative methods that will be used. The thesis culminates in an analysis of the web log and survey data collected during the key fieldwork period. The analysis begins by providing statistical support for my psychological approach to political engagement, before diving into the results of original fieldwork based on experimental study of a tournament delivered via Fantasy Forecast pertaining to local and mayoral elections that took place in the UK in May 2023.The primary interpretation of the data is that, contrary to several of the key hypotheses, there is little evidence that the treatment group experienced a shift in levels of political engagement, when compared to the control group. These findings can be interpreted in several ways - but I argue against a wholesale adoption of an interpretation that refutes the potential of gamified political forecasting to engender higher levels of political engagement. In the first place, the nature of the field experiment from which the thesis draws its data was over a short time period, and the scope of the project did not allow for longer-term exposure to gamified forecasting. As such, the findings may indicate that political engagement are resistant to change in a short duration tournament. This interpretation is significantly bolstered by the analysis of patterns of site usage, survey response, and targeted user feedback which focus on the treatment group in this study. My analysis of the data generated by this group returns numerous findings centering on three themes - performance, intensity of engagement and gamification. Here, I find that performance has a minimal effect on engagement attributes, but that both performance and intensity of site usage lead to increased psychological need satisfaction in accordance with Self-Determination Theory, the main motivation framework used for developing the platform, providing support for the idea that Fantasy is (or can be) an intrinsically-motivating website to use. This is suggestive of a mechanisms that, when set in motion over either a longer time period or with more intensive gamification, could significantly influence citizens’ levels of political engagement. I also find evidence of forecasting behaviours being influenced by attributes, with more efficacious forecasters submitting bolder predictions, lending further evidence to the web application interacting with the psychological attributes of the users.This thesis serves as a contribution to the three disciplines. It furthers the argument for a psychological approach to political engagement and tests it in a short-term context, applies gamification to political forecasting in what I believe to be a first for the literature, and, lastly, generates new insights into forecasting behaviour. Additionally, it possesses an evaluative and forward looking emphasis, providing future instances of gamified forecasting with suggestions and guidance rooted in user feedback.