bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Transportation systems’ impacts on the Vilnius housing market
Authors: Vasiliene-Vasiliauskiene Virgilija , Vasilis Vasiliauskas Aidas , Golembovskij Rišard , Meidute-Kavaliauskiene Ieva , Kazimieras Zavadskas Edmundas , Banaitis Audrius , Govindan Kannan
Published: June 2018

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to develop a better understanding of how transportation system factors affect city housing markets. The goal was to show that identifying these factors alone is not enough without also examining their effects and variations according to the housing location.

Design/methodology/approach

Transportation system factors were identified by conducting a thorough literature review. The factors’ relevance was tested using a quantitative methodology and a sample of 317 Vilnius residents. This city was next divided into three zones, and data collected from 18 real estate experts was subjected to qualitative analysis. The analytic hierarchy process was then applied to identify transportation system factors’ level of impact and dynamics by the housing location.

Findings

The results show that the factors affect the housing market in question but that these effects vary by the housing location and the most critical factors differ for each city zone.

Research limitations/implications

Only data on Vilnius were used. Further research is needed to compare transportation factors’ dynamics in multiple cities.

Practical implications

Priorities in transportation system improvements should be assessed to facilitate sustainable urban development and enhance the residents’ quality of life. Housing market regulations can only be successful if investment in transportation systems is allocated purposefully and coherently.

Originality/value

This research went beyond identifying transportation system factors by employing a broad, systematic approach to clarifying potential options for regulating housing markets through transportation system projects.
A Machiavellian behavioural framing of social conflict risks in supply chains
Authors: Marshall Alasdair , Bashir Hamdi , Ojiako Udechukwu , Chipulu Maxwell
Published: June 2018

Purpose

This conceptual paper aims to explore how supply chain managers deal with social threats to supply chains, in the process of demonstrating the potency of a largely neglected strand of realist social theory. This theory, as posited, sheds a great deal of light on the behavioural reality of how supply chain managers operate within the social aspects of their risk environments.

Design/methodology/approach

The paper is presented as a narrative synthesis of classical realist sociological literature.

Findings

The Machiavellian approach provides a template that can be used to help academics and practitioners understand how and why supply chain managers orient themselves to the social threats they confront in very different ways. The theory’s contention that the behavioural reality can be subdivided between two basic patterns allows it to serve as a constructively simple template for becoming attuned to ways in which supply chain managers socially construct and act within their social threat environments.

Research limitations/implications

The growing social complexity of supply chains gives behavioural responses a complexity reduction function. The authors theorise that such patterns, once activated, may not necessarily adapt rationally as guides to optimise the chance of success against the full range of social threats they are likely to encounter.

Originality/value

Cross-disciplinary supply chain management research is increasingly drawing upon sociology and behavioural science to facilitate greater understanding of not only the supply chain environment but also the roles of supply chain managers as relationship influencers and managers of conflict. The authors posit that Machiavellian–realist social theory can contribute to supply chain management scholarship by offering a constructively simple approach to evaluate the behavioural realities associated with social threats.
Export composition and economic growth: evidence from South Asian countries
Authors: Munir Kashif , Javed Zanib
Published: June 2018

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of export composition (diversification or specialization) on economic growth of South Asian countries, while export diversification is further categorized into horizontal and vertical export diversification.

Design/methodology/approach

The study uses Cobb-Douglas production function, in which export is augmented in the production function. To analyze the non-linear relationship (inverted U- or U-shape) with economic growth, square term of exports Herfindahl index, horizontal, and vertical export diversification are introduced in the model. Panel data of four countries of South Asia, i.e. Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka is utilized from 1990 to 2013 at annual frequency under fixed effect model.

Findings

Exports Herfindahl index represented inverted U-shape relationship with economic growth. An increase in export diversification lead to higher economic growth initially, however, after the threshold level, export specialization have positive impact on economic growth. Horizontal export diversification is not beneficial for economic growth initially, however, after the threshold level, introducing new sector increases economic growth in South Asian countries. Vertical export diversification has insignificant and U-shaped relationship with economic growth.

Practical implications

Education and skill formation are essential components for creativity and innovation, therefore attention must be paid toward labor training and education. Government must encourage the exporters to increase diversification in their export portfolio as well as provide incentives and technical assistance for research and development in the manufacturing sector.

Originality/value

This study contributes by analyzing the non-linear relationship between export composition, i.e. diversification (horizontal and vertical) or specialization and economic growth in South Asian countries. The study is useful to boost the potential level of exports on sustainable economic growth of South Asian countries. This study provides the essential evidence, information and better understanding to key stakeholders of exports.
Supply chain quality integration: relational antecedents and operational consequences
Authors: Yu Yubing , Huo Baofeng
Published: June 2018

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the impacts of relational capital on supply chain quality integration (SCQI) and operational performance from the holistic perspective of the entire supply chain.

Design/methodology/approach

Structural equation modeling with LISREL was used to test the conceptual model based on data collected from 308 companies in China.

Findings

The results indicate that with the exception of internal relational capital not having a significant impact on customer quality integration, supplier, internal and customer relational capital have positive impacts on supplier, internal and customer quality integration, which consequently improve operational performance. The results also show that internal relational capital has positive impacts on supplier and customer relational capital, and internal quality integration has positive impacts on supplier and customer quality integration.

Practical implications

The results provide important managerial insights for the improvement of operational performance through the development of relational capital and the implementation of SCQI practices throughout the supply chain.

Originality/value

The authors contribute to the relational capital and supply chain quality management literature by exploring the effectiveness of relational capital in improving SCQI and operational performance from the holistic perspective of the entire supply chain. The findings enrich the knowledge of SCQI management from the perspective of relational capital.
Seasonal variation in urban tourist satisfaction
Authors: Soldić Frleta Daniela , Smolčić Jurdana Dora
Published: June 2018

Purpose

The purpose of this study is to detect the differences in satisfaction levels with regard to different elements of the city tourism offering during the season and off-season. Furthermore, the aim is to find out what factors determine the satisfaction of season and off-season tourists.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper is based on the results of a survey conducted during 2016 in Opatija and Rijeka (Croatia). The analyses were conducted on a sample of 1,249 respondents. Data analysis included principal component analyses, ANOVA and series of regression analyses.

Findings

Results confirmed that there is a significant difference in overall satisfaction, as well as in all five satisfaction dimensions, between tourists visiting the cities during the season and those visiting in the pre- and post-season. In addition, simple regression analyses revealed that tourists staying in those cities during the peak season expressed a statistically significant higher level of satisfaction than those visiting in the pre- and post-season. However, no statistically significant difference was found in overall satisfaction and in four out of five satisfaction dimensions, between pre- and post-season tourists.

Practical implications

The findings have relevant implications for destination managers in their further decisions aimed at developing a more satisfactory tourism offering in the season and off-season.

Originality/value

The main contribution of this paper lies in the connection between tourist satisfaction and the season of their visit, as previous studies have rarely considered the season when analysing tourist satisfaction with the destination offering.
Evolution of increased intraspecific competitive ability following introduction: The importance of relatedness among genotypes
Authors: Zhang Zhijie , Zhou Fang , Pan Xiaoyun , van Kleunen Mark , Liu Mu , Li Bo
Published: June 2018

A long‐standing explanation for invasion success is that invasive plants could evolve to be more competitive following introduction. This evolution of increased competitive ability (EICA) hypothesis, however, has seldom been tested with regard to intraspecific competition. Given that plants can display different responses to related and unrelated conspecifics, the evolution of intraspecific competitive ability might be specific to genotypes of different relatedness.

Here, we grew five native (South American) and five introduced (North American) genotypes of the clonal herbaceous invasive plant Alternanthera philoxeroides alone, with above‐ground competition from kin (the same genotype) or from one of two types of strangers (another genotype from the same range or another genotype from the other range).

When grown alone, introduced and native genotypes produced similar total biomass and storage‐root biomass. However, in response to intraspecific competition, introduced genotypes showed increases in total biomass and stem length, and a decrease in specific stem length, whereas native genotypes showed the opposite pattern. When grown with kin instead of strangers, introduced genotypes showed an increase in branch number, whereas native genotypes showed the opposite.

Synthesis. Our study provided evidence for evolution of increased intraspecific competitive ability in an invasive plant. We also found, for the first time, that the interactions among kin were likely to shift from competition towards facilitation following introduction.
Inference with Dependent Data in Accounting and Finance Applications
Authors: CONLEY TIMOTHY , GONÇALVES SILVIA , HANSEN CHRISTIAN
Published: June 2018

We review developments in conducting inference for model parameters in the presence of intertemporal and cross‐sectional dependence with an emphasis on panel data applications. We review the use of heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent (HAC) standard error estimators, which include the standard clustered and multiway clustered estimators, and discuss alternative sample‐splitting inference procedures, such as the Fama–Macbeth procedure, within this context. We outline pros and cons of the different procedures. We then illustrate the properties of the discussed procedures within a simulation experiment designed to mimic the type of firm‐level panel data that might be encountered in accounting and finance applications. Our conclusion, based on theoretical properties and simulation performance, is that sample‐splitting procedures with suitably chosen splits are the most likely to deliver robust inferential statements with approximately correct coverage properties in the types of large, heterogeneous panels many researchers are likely to face.
Spatial optimisation of fire service coverage: a case study of Brisbane, Australia
Authors: KC Kiran , Corcoran Jonathan , Chhetri Prem
Published: June 2018

In the context of changing demand for fire services, spatial optimisation of fire coverage has attracted little scholarly attention despite its potential to improve emergency response and to inform future service planning for fire stations. Drawing on small area population forecasts, this paper extends the application of the Maximum Coverage Location Model to compute and delineate the spatial coverage of current and proposed new fire stations to align with population growth estimates for Brisbane, Australia. Our results reveal important gaps in fire cover that are likely to emerge as a result of predicted population growth, the spatial patterns of which varies across the Brisbane metropolitan area. We draw on these results to delineate a series of new potential sites for fire stations to ameliorate the reduction in spatial coverage as a consequence of predicted population growth demonstrating the utility of our analytic approach for decision‐making and operational planning in the fire services.
A CyberGIS Integration and Computation Framework for High‐Resolution Continental‐Scale Flood Inundation Mapping
Authors: Liu Yan Y. , Maidment David R. , Tarboton David G. , Zheng Xing , Wang Shaowen
Published: June 2018

We present a Digital Elevation Model‐based hydrologic analysis methodology for continental flood inundation mapping (CFIM), implemented as a cyberGIS scientific workflow in which a 1/3rd arc‐second (10 m) height above nearest drainage (HAND) raster data for the conterminous United States (CONUS) was computed and employed for subsequent inundation mapping. A cyberGIS framework was developed to enable spatiotemporal integration and scalable computing of the entire inundation mapping process on a hybrid supercomputing architecture. The first 1/3rd arc‐second CONUS HAND raster dataset was computed in 1.5 days on the cyberGIS Resourcing Open Geospatial Education and Research supercomputer. The inundation mapping process developed in our exploratory study couples HAND with National Water Model forecast data to enable near real‐time inundation forecasts for CONUS. The computational performance of HAND and the inundation mapping process were profiled to gain insights into the computational characteristics in high‐performance parallel computing scenarios. The establishment of the CFIM computational framework has broad and significant research implications that may lead to further development and improvement of flood inundation mapping methodologies.
River Channel Geometry and Rating Curve Estimation Using Height above the Nearest Drainage
Authors: Zheng Xing , Tarboton David G. , Maidment David R. , Liu Yan Y. , Passalacqua Paola
Published: June 2018

River channel geometry is an important input to hydraulic and hydrologic models. Traditional approaches to quantify river geometry have involved surveyed river cross sections, which cannot be extended to ungaged basins. In this paper, we describe a method for developing a synthetic rating curve to relate flow to water level in a stream reach based on reach‐averaged channel geometry properties developed using the Height above Nearest Drainage (HAND) method. HAND uses a digital elevation model (DEM) of the terrain and computes the elevation difference between each land surface cell and the stream bed cell to which it drains. Taking increments in water level in the stream, HAND defines the inundation zone and a water depth grid within this zone, and the channel characteristics are defined from this water depth grid. We apply our method to the Blanco River (Texas) and the Tar River (North Carolina) using 10‐m terrain data from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) 3D Elevation Program (3DEP) dataset. We evaluate the method's performance by comparing the reach‐average stage‐river geometry relationships and rating curves to those from calibrated Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC‐RAS) models and USGS gage observations. The results demonstrate that after some adjustment, the river geometry information and rating curves derived from HAND using national‐coverage datasets are comparable to those obtained from hydraulic models or gage measurements. We evaluate the inundation extent and show our approach is able to capture the majority of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) 100‐year floodplain.
Prospective cohort studies of birth weight and risk of obesity, diabetes, and hypertension in adulthood among the Chinese population
Authors: Xia Qinghua , Cai Hui , Xiang Yong‐Bing , Zhou Peng , Li Honglan , Yang Gong , Jiang Yu , Shu Xiao‐Ou , Zheng Wei , Xu Wang‐Hong
Published: June 2018

Background

Low birth weight (LBW) has been associated with subsequent risks of obesity and certain chronic diseases, but evidence for the associations is limited for the Chinese population.

Methods

In this study we analyzed data from two population‐based prospective cohort studies, the Shanghai Women's Health Study and the Shanghai Men's Health Study, to examine the associations between LBW and the risk of obesity and chronic diseases. Birth weight was self‐reported at baseline; anthropometric measurements were made at study enrollment. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) diagnoses were self‐reported, whereas hypertension diagnoses were based on self‐report and blood pressure measurements at baseline and follow‐up surveys.

Results

Birth weight was available for 11 515 men and 13 569 women. Non‐linear associations were observed for birth weight with baseline body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), waist:  hip ratio (WHR), and waist:  height ratio (WHtR; P < 0.05 for non‐linearity), and LBW was linked with lower BMI, smaller WC, and larger WHR and WHtR. An excess risk of T2DM was observed for LBW (<2500 g) versus birth weight 2500–3499 g since baseline (hazard ratio [HR] 1.17; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.92–1.49) and since birth (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.07–1.54), whereas the HRs for hypertension since baseline and birth were 1.13 (95% CI 1.01–1.27) and 1.20 (95% CI 1.11–1.30), respectively. The risk of the diseases decreased as birth weight increased up to ~4000 g; further increases in birth weight did not convey additional benefits.

Conclusion

The results suggest that LBW, an index of poor intrauterine nutrition, may affect health risks later in life in the Chinese population.
Do Investors Respond to Explanatory Language Included in Unqualified Audit Reports?
Authors: Czerney Keith , Schmidt Jaime J. , Thompson Anne M.
Published: June 2018

This article investigates whether investors respond to explanatory language (EL) added to unqualified audit reports. Although prior research finds an association between auditor EL and lower financial reporting quality, surveys suggest that many investors limit their attention to the unqualified nature of the opinion. We use three‐day abnormal returns and abnormal trading volume to measure investor response to EL in unqualified audit reports issued from 2000 to 2014. We find little evidence to indicate that investors respond to auditor EL at the audit report release date. In further analyses, we find that the lack of investor response is attributable both to incomplete investor reactions (55 percent of EL occurrences) and previous incorporation of EL (40 percent of EL occurrences). Overall, the results support policymakers’ initiatives to improve the usefulness of unqualified audit reports.
Intensity of Daily Drinking and Its Relation to Alcohol Use Disorders
Authors: Vergés Alvaro , Ellingson Jarrod M. , Schroder Stephanie A. , Slutske Wendy S. , Sher Kenneth J.
Published: June 2018

Background

Daily drinking is an important public health concern and informative for evaluating diagnostic classification. In particular, daily binge drinkers might be considered as the prototype of some forms of alcoholism, as this drinking pattern may drive many alcohol use disorder (AUD) symptoms. However, daily drinking potentially captures a wide range of drinkers, including light–moderate daily drinkers who exhibit presumed control over their drinking behavior and might benefit from salutary effects on health. This study examined the heterogeneity of daily drinkers in detail.

Methods

Data from the 2 waves of the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions were used. Participants who reported drinking “every day” during the last 12 months were classified as daily drinkers. A series of regression and logistic regression analyses were conducted to investigate the association between daily drinking and various outcomes.

Results

Daily drinkers were found to vary considerably from each other with respect to diagnostic status, level of consumption, demographic composition, and a range of drinking and health correlates. Further, a substantial number of daily binge drinkers were not diagnosed with AUD under the DSM‐IV or DSM‐5, although in most groups, the DSM‐5 criteria diagnosed a larger percentage of participants.

Conclusions

Daily drinkers represent a highly heterogeneous group, and the correlates of daily drinking depend on the usual quantity of daily drinks and the frequency of alcohol‐related problems in a given sample. Moreover, AUD, defined both according to DSM‐IV and DSM‐5, did not capture more than 68% of daily binge drinkers. Given that daily binge drinking is an extremely high threshold for use, this finding may present a challenge for our current classification system.
Estimating mental health impacts of alcohol's harms from other drinkers: using propensity scoring methods with national cross‐sectional data from the United States
Authors: Karriker‐Jaffe Katherine J. , Li Libo , Greenfield Thomas K.
Published: June 2018

Background and Aims

Alcohol's harms to others (AHTO) may cause substantial distress, particularly when harms are perpetrated by close others. One challenge to identifying causal impacts is that people harmed by drinkers differ in many ways from those not so harmed, so our aim was to assess mental health in relation to two serious types of AHTO, financial harm and assault by someone who had been drinking, using propensity score (PS) weighting to adjust for potentially confounding differences.

Design

Cross‐sectional, nationally representative, random sample of adults.

Setting

United States.

Participants

Seventy‐six respondents reporting financial harm compared with 4625 with no past‐year AHTO; 192 respondents reporting assault compared with 4623 with no past‐year AHTO.

Measurements

Predictors were reported exposure to financial problems due to someone's drinking and assault by someone who had been drinking. Mental health outcomes were quality of life, distress and positive affect. Confounders included family history of alcohol problems, child physical/sexual abuse, substance use/dependence, impacts of recent economic recession, racial/ethnic discrimination, poverty and other demographics.

Results

In double‐robust PS weighted models for financial harm, there were associations with reduced quality of life (B = −0.28, P = 0.02) and increased distress [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 4.69, P < 0.001], and for assault by a partner or family member, there were associations with increased distress (aOR = 2.23, P = 0.09). For assault by a friend or stranger, none of the associations are statistically significant after PS weighting (all P > 0.10).

Conclusions

Financial troubles due to someone else's drinking and assaults perpetrated by drinking intimates (spouses, other partners or family members) are associated with reduced mental health.
Convex Mixture Regression for Quantitative Risk Assessment
Authors: Canale Antonio , Durante Daniele , Dunson David B.
Published: June 2018

There is wide interest in studying how the distribution of a continuous response changes with a predictor. We are motivated by environmental applications in which the predictor is the dose of an exposure and the response is a health outcome. A main focus in these studies is inference on dose levels associated with a given increase in risk relative to a baseline. In addressing this goal, popular methods either dichotomize the continuous response or focus on modeling changes with the dose in the expectation of the outcome. Such choices may lead to information loss and provide inaccurate inference on dose-response relationships. We instead propose a Bayesian convex mixture regression model that allows the entire distribution of the health outcome to be unknown and changing with the dose. To balance flexibility and parsimony, we rely on a mixture model for the density at the extreme doses, and express the conditional density at each intermediate dose via a convex combination of these extremal densities. This representation generalizes classical dose-response models for quantitative outcomes, and provides a more parsimonious, but still powerful, formulation compared to nonparametric methods, thereby improving interpretability and efficiency in inference on risk functions. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior inference is developed, and the benefits of our methods are outlined in simulations, along with a study on the impact of dde exposure on gestational age.
Work and Volunteering: Longitudinal Relationships between Work‐Related Experiences and Volunteering Behaviour
Authors: Lup Daniela , Booth Jonathan E.
Published: June 2018

This study examines the effect of work‐related experiences on employees’ engagement in community volunteering, using data from a British longitudinal panel of employees. Using a novel analytical approach that separates variation in volunteering due to within‐person changes in work conditions from variation due to between‐person work differences, we more robustly test existing and new hypotheses about the effects of work on volunteering. New to this literature, we find that commuting and satisfaction with job experiences are significant predictors of community volunteering, both the likelihood to volunteer and volunteering frequency. In turn, volunteering determinants previously explored with cross‐sectional data, such as managerial and professional jobs, employment sector and hourly paid contracts, are no longer statistically significant in the within‐person models. We discuss a number of important theoretical and practical consequences of these findings.
The Social Glue of Cumulative Culture and Ritual Behavior
Authors: Nielsen Mark
Published: June 2018

Cumulative culture, where innovations are incorporated progressively into a population's stock of skills and knowledge, generating more sophisticated repertoires, is a core aspect of human cognition underpinning the technological advances that characterize our species. Cumulative culture relies on our proclivity for high‐fidelity imitation, a characteristic that emerged phylogenetically early in our evolutionary history and emerges ontogenetically early in our development. Commensurate with this proclivity to copy others comes a tradeoff that behaviors that are functionally irrelevant will be easily maintained and transmitted. Rituals are an expression of this. In this article, I argue that the core cognitive architecture responsible for cumulative culture and technological progress also supports the propagation of rituals: our socially motivated propensity for engaging in high‐fidelity imitation.
Impact of menopause on outcomes in prolactinomas after dopamine agonist treatment withdrawal
Authors: Santharam Sandhya , Fountas Athanasios , Tampourlou Metaxia , Arlt Wiebke , Ayuk John , Gittoes Neil , Toogood Andrew , Karavitaki Niki
Published: June 2018

Objective

Discontinuation of dopamine agonist (DA) treatment in women with prolactinoma after menopause is a potential approach; studies systematically assessing long‐term outcomes are lacking. Our aim was to investigate the natural history of prolactinoma in this group.

Design/Patients

Retrospective cohort study of women with prolactinoma diagnosed before menopause and who after menopause were not on DA.

Results

Thirty women were included. Twenty‐eight received DA (median duration 18 years, median age at DA withdrawal 52 years). At last assessment (median follow‐up 3 years) and compared with values 6‐12 months after stopping DA, Prolactin (PRL) increased in 15%, decreased but not normalized in 33% and was normal in 52%; PRL levels or visible adenoma on imaging before DA withdrawal, treatment duration and presence of macro‐/microadenoma at diagnosis were not predictors of normoprolactinaemia at last review, whereas PRL values 6‐12 months after stopping DA were. Adenoma regrowth was detected in 2/27 patients (7%), who showed gradual increase in PRL. Comparison with 28 women who had DA withdrawal before their menopause revealed lower risk of hyperprolactinaemia recurrence in the postmenopausal group (HR:0.316, 95% CI: 0.101‐0.985, P < .05). Two women with microprolactinoma diagnosed in perimenopausal period had not been offered DA; PRL decreased (but not normalized) during observation of 1 and 8 years.

Conclusions

Prolactin normalized over time in nearly half of the women and serum PRL 6‐12 months after DA withdrawal is useful predictor. Nonetheless, 7% of the patients demonstrated adenoma regrowth which, given the life expectancy postmenopause, necessitate regular monitoring of the cases with persistent hyperprolactinaemia.
Effort–reward imbalance and burnout among humanitarian aid workers
Authors: Jachens Liza , Houdmont Jonathan , Thomas Roslyn
Published: June 2018

This study sought to examine stress‐related working conditions—defined in terms of effort–reward imbalance (ERI)—and their association with burnout among a large, international sample of humanitarian aid workers. Descriptive statistics were applied to cross‐sectional survey data (N=1,980) to profile ERI and burnout and Pearson's χ2 tests were used to characterise associated socio‐ and occupational‐demographic factors. Associations between ERI and burnout were established using binary logistic regression to generate odds ratios and 95 per cent confidence intervals adjusted for potential confounding variables. For high emotional exhaustion, the prevalence rate was 36 per cent for women and 27 per cent for men, whereas the proportions for high depersonalisation and low personal achievement were 9 and 10 per cent and 47 and 31 per cent, respectively. Intermediate and high ERI was associated with significantly increased odds of high emotional exhaustion; the findings were mixed for depersonalisation and personal achievement.
How emergency managers (mis?)interpret forecasts
Authors: Wernstedt Kris , Roberts Patrick S. , Arvai Joseph , Redmond Kelly
Published: June 2018

Emergency managers who work on floods and other weather‐related hazards constitute critical frontline responders to disasters. Yet, while these professionals operate in a realm rife with uncertainty related to forecasts and other unknowns, the influence of uncertainty on their decision‐making is poorly understood. Consequently, a national‐level survey of county emergency managers in the United States was administered to examine how they interpret forecast information, using hypothetical climate, flood, and weather scenarios to simulate their responses to uncertain information. The study revealed that even emergency managers with substantial experience take decision shortcuts and make biased choices, just as do members of the general population. Their choices vary depending on such features as the format in which probabilistic forecasts are presented and whether outcomes are represented as gains or losses. In sum, forecast producers who consider these decision processes when developing and communicating forecasts could help to improve flood preparation and potentially reduce disaster losses.
Insulin pump breakdown and infusion set failure in Italian children with type 1 diabetes: A 1‐year prospective observational study with suggestions to minimize clinical impact
Authors: Rabbone Ivana , Minuto Nicola , Toni Sonia , Lombardo Fortunato , Iafusco Dario , Marigliano Marco , Schiaffini Riccardo , Maltoni Giulio , Frongia Anna P. , Scardapane Marco , Nicolucci Antonio , Cherubini Valentino , Bonfanti Riccardo , Scaramuzza Andrea E. ,   the Diabetes Study Group of the Italian Society of Pediatric Endocrinology and Diabetology (ISPED)
Published: June 2018

Aim

To evaluate the incidence of insulin pump and infusion set failures in a cohort of children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes during a 1‐year follow‐up.

Materials and Methods

Insulin pump breakdown and infusion set failures were prospectively registered in a cohort of 1046 children and adolescents from 25 tertiary pediatric diabetes centres (50% male, mean age 12.2 ± 4.1 years), with type 1 diabetes from the age of 6.7 ± 3.6 years, and using an insulin pump from the age of 3.3 ± 2.2 years.

Results

An average rate of 4.5 failures/person‐year was registered; the incidences (events per person‐year) for each failure were 8.4 for hyperglycaemia episodes solved with infusion set change, 7 for bubbles, 2.8 for kinking, 2.4 for bleeding, 2 for set dislodge, 2 for pump blockage, 1.9 for tunnelling, 1.8 for lipohypertrophy, and 0.3 for infection. At multivariate analysis significant association between HbA1c and lipohypertrophy (P < 0.0028) was shown. Analysis by age group (<6, 6–11, >11 years) showed a higher frequency of bubbles, hyperglycaemia episodes and lipohypertrophy in preschoolers; tunnelling and pump blockage were more frequent in adolescents. Aspart was associated with a lower risk of bubbles and hyperglycaemia whereas glulisine was associated with a higher risk of lipohypertrophy and pump blockage. The usage of oblique cannula was associated with a low risk of all failures except infections.

Conclusions

This prospective 1‐year study on a large cohort of Italian children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes using insulin pump therapy showed a low total failure rate, highlighting the importance of continuous education to reduce failures. Lipohypertrophy was the only issue associated with a worsening of metabolic control.
SMALL‐ AND MEDIUM‐SIZED ENTERPRISE FINANCING AND SECURITIZATION: FIRM‐LEVEL EVIDENCE FROM THE EURO AREA
Authors: Kaya Orçun , Masetti Oliver
Published: June 2018

This paper analyzes the impact of securitization on access to finance for small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) in the euro area. Using firm‐level survey data on SME financing conditions, we show that an increase in securitization issuance reduces the probability of SMEs facing credit constraints and decreases the costs of bank financing for nonconstrained firms. Our results reveal that in addition to the volume of securitization, its type and quality matter for credit extension to SMEs. The paper thus provides empirical support for recent initiatives to revive securitization in Europe and for effective monetary policy transmission in the euro area. (JEL D22, E44, E51, E58, G21)
Alternative stable equilibria and critical thresholds created by fire regimes and plant responses in a fire‐prone community
Authors: Miller Adam D. , Thompson Jonathan R. , Tepley Alan J. , Anderson‐Teixeira Kristina J.
Published: June 2018

Wildfire is a dominant disturbance in many ecosystems, and fire frequency and intensity are being altered as climates change. Through effects on mortality and regeneration, fire affects plant community composition, species richness, and carbon cycling. In some regions, changes to fire regimes could result in critical, non‐reversible transitions from forest to non‐forested states. For example, the Klamath ecoregion (northwest United States) supports extensive conifer forests that are initially replaced by hardwood chaparral following high‐severity fire, but eventually return to conifer forest during the fire‐free periods. Climate change alters both the fire regime and post‐fire recovery dynamics, potentially causing shrubland to persist as a stable (i.e. self‐renewing) vegetation stage, rather than an ephemeral stage. Here, we present a theoretical investigation of how changes in plant traits and fire regimes can alter the stability of communities in forest‐shrub systems such as the Klamath. Our model captures the key characteristics of the system, including life‐stage‐specific responses to disturbance and asymmetrical competitive interactions. We assess vegetation stability via invasion analysis, and conclude that portions of the landscape that are currently forested also can be stable as shrubland. We identify parameter thresholds where community equilibria change from stable to unstable, and show how these thresholds may shift in response to changes in life‐history or environmental parameters. For instance, conifer maturation rates are expected to decrease as aridity increases under climate change, and our model shows that this reduction decreases the fire frequencies at which forests become unstable. Increases in fire activity sufficient to destabilize forest communities are likely to occur in more arid future climates. If widespread, this would result in reduced carbon stocks and a positive feedback to climate change. Changes in stability may be altered by management practices.
Latitudinal‐diversity gradients can be shaped by biotic processes: new insights from an eco‐evolutionary model
Authors: Henriques‐Silva Renato , Kubisch Alexander , Peres‐Neto Pedro R.
Published: June 2018

The processes involved in shaping latitudinal‐diversity gradients (LDGs) have been a longstanding source of debate and research. Climatic, historical and evolutionary factors have all been shown to contribute to the formation of LDGs. However, meta‐analyses have shown that different clades have LDG slopes that may vary in more than one order of magnitude. Such large variation cannot be explained solely by climatic or historical factors (e.g. difference in surface area between temperate and tropical zones) given that all clades within a geographic region are subject to the same conditions. Therefore, biotic processes intrinsic to each taxonomic group could be relevant in explaining rate differences in diversity decline across latitudinal gradients among groups. In this study, we developed a model simulating multiple competing species subjected (or not) to a demographic Allee effect. We simulated the range expansion of these species across an environmental gradient to show how these two overlooked factors (competition and Allee effects) are capable of modulating LDGs. Allee effects resulted in a steeper LDG given a higher probability of local extinction and lower colonization capacity compared to species without Allee effects. Likewise, stronger competition also led to a steeper decline in species diversity compared to scenarios with weaker species antagonistic interactions. This pattern occurred mostly due to the strength of priority effects, wherein scenarios with strong competition, species that dispersed earlier in the landscape were able to secure many patches whereas late‐arriving species were progressively precluded from expanding their ranges. Overall, our results suggest that the effect of biotic processes in shaping macroecological patterns could be more important than it is currently appreciated.
Species and individual replacements contribute more than nestedness to shape vertebrate scavenger metacommunities
Authors: Mateo‐Tomás Patricia , Olea Pedro P. , Selva Nuria , Sánchez‐Zapata José A.
Published: June 2018

Understanding the mechanisms that organize biodiversity is central in ecology and conservation. Beta diversity links local (alfa) and regional (gamma) diversity, giving insight into how communities organize spatially. Metacommunity ecology provides the framework to interpret regional and local processes interacting to shape communities. However, the lack of metacommunity studies for large vertebrates may limit the understanding and compromise the preservation of ecosystem functions and services. We aim to understand the mechanisms underlying differences in species composition among vertebrate scavenger communities ‒ which provide key ecosystem functions, e.g. carrion consumption ‒ within a metacommunity context. We obtained species richness and abundances at scavenger communities consuming ungulate carcasses monitored through motion‐triggered remote cameras in seven terrestrial ecosystems in Spain. We partitioned beta diversity to decompose incidence‐based (species presence/absence) and abundance‐based dissimilarities into their components (turnover/balanced variation and nestedness/abundance gradient, respectively). We identified the environmental factors explaining the observed patterns. The vertebrate scavenger metacommunity consisted of 3101 individuals from 30 species. Changes in composition among ecosystems were mostly (> 84%) due to species or individual replacement (i.e. turnover or balanced variation). Species or individual loss/gain (i.e. nestedness or abundance gradient) accounted for 13–16% of these changes. Mean carcass weight, elevation and habitat diversity were the main factors explaining species/individual replacement. Our findings suggest that local processes such as species‐sorting through habitat heterogeneity would dominate scavenger metacommunity dynamics together with stochastic forces (i.e. related to carrion unpredictability and scavenging being a widespread strategy among vertebrates). The presence of structured patterns (i.e. nestedness) in beta diversity could reflect a role of deterministic processes: mass‐effects through dispersal and defaunation. Vultures are long‐distance foragers and functionally dominant species, which would connect local assemblages within the metacommunity, supporting scavenger diversity and functions across space. These results highlight the importance of managing vertebrate scavenger assemblages within a metacommunity context.
Quality of antiepileptic drugs in sub‐Saharan Africa: A study in Gabon, Kenya, and Madagascar
Authors: Jost Jeremy , Ratsimbazafy Voa , Nguyen Thu Trang , Nguyen Thuy Linh , Dufat Hanh , Dugay Annabelle , Ba Alassane , Sivadier Guilhem , Mafilaza Yattussia , Jousse Cyril , Traïkia Mounir , Leremboure Martin , Auditeau Emilie , Raharivelo Adeline , Ngoungou Edgard , Kariuki Symon M. , Newton Charles R. , Preux Pierre‐Marie
Published: June 2018

Objective

Epilepsy is a major public health issue in low‐ and middle‐income countries, where the availability and accessibility of quality treatment remain important issues, the severity of which may be aggravated by poor quality antiepileptic drugs (AEDs). The primary objective of this study was to measure the quality of AEDs in rural and urban areas in 3 African countries.

Methods

This cross‐sectional study was carried out in Gabon, Kenya, and Madagascar. Both official and unofficial supply chains in urban and rural areas were investigated. Samples of oral AEDs were collected in areas where a patient could buy or obtain them. Pharmacological analytical procedures and Medicine Quality Assessment Reporting Guidelines were used to assess quality.

Results

In total, 102 batches, representing 3782 units of AEDs, were sampled. Overall, 32.3% of the tablets were of poor quality, but no significant difference was observed across sites: 26.5% in Gabon, 37.0% in Kenya, and 34.1% in Madagascar (P = .7). The highest proportions of substandard medications were found in the carbamazepine (38.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI] 21.8‐57.8) and phenytoin (83.3%; 95% CI 35.8‐99.5) batches, which were mainly flawed by their failure to dissolve. Sodium valproate was the AED with the poorest quality (32.1%; 95% CI 15.8‐42.3). The phenobarbital (94.1%; 95% CI 80.3‐99.2) and diazepam (100.0%) batches were of better quality. The prevalence of substandard quality medications increased in samples supplied by public facilities (odds ratio [OR] 9.9; 95% CI 1.2‐84.1; P < .04) and manufacturers located in China (OR 119.8; 95% CI 8.7‐1651.9; P < .001). The prevalence of AEDs of bad quality increased when they were stored improperly (OR 5.4; 95% CI 1.2‐24.1; P < .03).

Significance

No counterfeiting was observed. However, inadequate AED storage conditions are likely to lead to ineffective and possibly dangerous AEDs, even when good‐quality AEDs are initially imported.
The role of skin barrier in occupational contact dermatitis
Authors: Jakasa Ivone , Thyssen Jacob P. , Kezic Sanja
Published: June 2018

Skin diseases represent one of the most common work‐related diseases and may have a detrimental effect on social, personal and occupational aspects of life. Contact dermatitis (CD), which comprises predominately irritant contact dermatitis (ICD) and allergic contact dermatitis (ACD), accounts for vast majority of occupational skin diseases, especially in occupations associated with frequent skin contact with irritants and contact allergens. Although ICD and ACD have similar clinical manifestation, their pathophysiology and the role of the skin barrier are different. In ICD, perturbation of the skin barrier is the primary event which sets into motion diverse metabolic processes and triggers activation of innate immunity without the involvement of adaptive immune system. In ACD, a type IV hypersensitivity reaction induced by contact allergens, the skin barrier impairment may evoke innate signalling pathways during the sensitization phase required for the activation of T‐cell adaptive response. Thus, skin barrier impairment may increase the risk of ICD or ACD not only because of enhanced permeability and ingress of irritants and allergens but also by the generation of innate immune signal needed for the induction of allergic response. Hence, an efficient way to prevent CD is to avoid skin barrier damage in the workplace. This review focuses on the skin barrier, how it is affected by skin irritants and how its impairment contributes to the development of ICD and ACD.
Possible roles of basophils in chronic itch
Authors: Hashimoto Takashi , Rosen Jordan D. , Sanders Kristen M. , Yosipovitch Gil
Published: June 2018

Basophils are blood granulocytes and normally constitute <1% of blood peripheral leucocytes. Basophils share some morphological and functional similarities with mast cells, and basophils were once regarded as redundant and negligible circulating mast cells. However, recent studies reveal the indispensable roles of basophils in various diseases, including allergic and pruritic diseases. Basophils may be involved in itch through the mediation of a Th2 immune response, interaction with other cells in the skin and secretion of a wide variety of itch‐related mediators, for example histamine, cytokines and chemokines (IL‐4, IL‐13, IL‐31 and TSLP), proteases (cathepsin S), prostaglandins (PGE2 and PGD2), substance P and platelet‐activating factor. Not only pruritic skin diseases (eg, atopic dermatitis, irritant contact dermatitis, chronic urticaria, prurigo, papulo‐erythroderma of Ofuji, eosinophilic pustular folliculitis, scabies, tick bites and bullous pemphigoid) but also pruritic systemic diseases (eg, primary sclerosing cholangitis and polycythemia vera) may be affected by basophils.