bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Predictors of Nodal Metastasis in Mucoepidermoid Carcinoma of the Oral Cavity and Oropharynx
Authors: Reny Danielle C. , Ranasinghe Viran J. , Magana Linda C. , Kaufman Adam C. , Chalian Ara A. , O'Malley Jr. Bert W. , Weinstein Gregory S. , Brody Robert M.
Published: August 2020

Introduction: Mucoepidermoid carcinoma (MEC) of the upper aerodigestive tract (UADT) is an uncommon malignancy, with limited literature available on its clinical and pathologic characteristics. Here, we describe the behavior of MEC of the UADT including pathologic characteristics and predictors of nodal metastasis. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of patients with MEC of the UADT treated at an academic medical center from January 2008 to May 2018. Data was collected about demographics and tumor characteristics including clinical and histological data. The two-tailed Student t test and χ2 analysis were performed to assess for predictors of nodal metastasis. Results: We identified 44 patients with minor salivary gland MEC of the oral cavity (OC) and oropharynx (OP). All patients were treated with primary site surgery. The primary site was the OC in 25 patients (57%) and OP in 19 (43%). Low-grade histology was seen in 27 specimens (61.4%), intermediate histology in 9 specimens (20.5%), and high-grade histology in 8 specimens (18.2%). Perineural invasion was noted in 10 specimens (22.7%). Neck dissection was performed in 17 patients (39%), with pathologically positive nodes found in 9 (20.5%). Notably, 5 of the 9 positive nodal specimens were found in clinically node-negative necks. Pathologically positive cervical lymph nodes were significantly associated with the OP as the primary site (p = 0.0005), perineural invasion (p = 0.012), lymphovascular invasion (p < 0.001), and high-grade histology (p = 0.004) in the primary specimen. Discussion: MEC of the UADT is an uncommon malignancy. Our findings suggest elective neck dissection should be considered with perineural and lymphovascular invasion, high-grade tumor, and the OP as the primary site.
Current and Emerging Treatments for Waldenström Macroglobulinemia
Authors: Grimont Christopher N. , Castillo Almeida Natalia E. , Gertz Morie A.
Published: August 2020

Waldenström macroglobulinemia (WM) is a rare lymphoplasmacytic lymphoma. The primary goal of therapy is to reduce symptoms related to direct infiltration of the bone marrow and decrease monoclonal IgM-associated complications. Active agents in the management of WM can be broadly classified as rituximab-alkylator combination therapy, proteasome inhibitor-based therapy, and Bruton’s tyrosine kinase inhibitor-based therapy. MYD88L265P and CXCR4 genetic status are pivotal for tailoring treatment options. Ibrutinib is a suitable treatment option for both treatment-naïve and relapsing WM patients. Recent advances in the intracellular B cell and cytokine signaling pathways have contributed to the development of novel therapeutic strategies. Current clinical trials are promising and may further advance WM-directed therapy.
Caffeine Restores Background EEG Activity Independent of Infarct Reduction after Neonatal Hypoxic Ischemic Brain Injury
Authors: Sun Haiyan , Gonzalez Fernando , McQuillen Patrick S.
Published: August 2020

In human preterm newborns, caffeine increases brain activity and improves neurodevelopmental outcomes. In animal models of hypoxic ischemic brain injury, caffeine pretreatment reduces infarct volume. We studied the relationship between tissue neuroprotection and brain activity after injury to further understand caffeine neuroprotection. Rat dams received caffeine prior to birth or on postnatal day 3 (P3) through P16. Caffeine-treated and -untreated pups underwent the Vannucci procedure (unilateral carotid ligation, global hypoxia) on P2. A subset had EEG recordings. Brain hemispheric infarct volume was measured on P16. P2 hypoxic ischemia (HI) results in histologic brain injury (mean ± standard deviation infarct volume 10.3 ± 4.6%) and transient suppression of EEG activity. Caffeine pretreatment reduces brain injury (mean ± standard deviation infarct volume 1.6 ± 4.5%, p < 0.001) and improves amplitude-integrated EEG (aEEG) and EEG burst duration and amplitude. Caffeine treatment after HI does not reduce infarct volume (mean ± standard deviation 8.3 ± 4.1%, p = 1.0). However, caffeine posttreatment was equally effective at restoring aEEG amplitude and EEG burst duration and amplitude. Thus, caffeine supports brain background electrical activity independent of tissue neuroprotection.
Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation Support as a Bridge to Recovery during Chemotherapy in a Young Patient with Metastatic Choriocarcinoma and Severe Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome
Authors: Sekandarzad Asieb , Udi Josefina , Waller Cornelius F. , Bode Christoph , Biever Paul
Published: August 2020

Introduction: A young woman presented at a local hospital with severe dyspnea directly after childbirth. She was di­agnosed with choriocarcinoma and massive pulmonary metastases. Shortly after administration of polychemotherapy she developed severe acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). Case Presentation: The patient was transferred to the intensive care unit (ICU) and extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) center of the university hospital. Venovenous ECMO support was implemented for 28 days while enabling continuous chemotherapy. After 49 days in the ICU, she was transferred to the oncology ward in a stable respiratory state. Discussion/Conclusion: Although the survival rates of ARDS in the general ICU population have improved lately due to improved management of ARDS and ECMO support, the data on adult cancer patients receiving ECMO support are very limited. Only few small retrospective studies on ECMO support in adult cancer patients have been conducted. Unfortunately the survival rates of patients after allogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation and ECMO support were discouraging. Nevertheless, cancer patients with at least stable disease who are eligible for full-code ICU management may be potential candidates for ECMO in case of severe ARDS. Our case report not only shows that patients suffering from choriocarcinoma with pulmonary metastases may develop severe ARDS in the context of polychemotherapy, but also demonstrates that ECMO support enables chemotherapy continuation and complete remission of the underlying choriocarcinoma.
Núcleo de direitos humanos da Escola de Educação Física e Esporte da USP
Authors: Silveira Sergio Roberto , Freudenheim Andrea Michele , Bassi Paula , Oliveira Júlia Ávila de
Published: August 2020

O Núcleo de Direitos Humanos (NDH) da Escola de Educação Física e Esporte (EEFE) da Universidade de São Paulo (USP), criado no ano de 2016, tem como funções apoiar, implantar e implementar ações promovidas pela Direção da EEFE-USP e Reitoria da USP nas interfaces com a sociedade civil. Os objetivos deste ensaio são: (1) expressar o entendimento da Educação em direitos humanos no ensino superior e, (2) apresentar as ações voltadas à educação em direitos humanos do NDH-EEFE. Para tanto, foram consultados documentos como a Constituição de 1988, Declaração Universal dos Direitos Humanos Lei de Diretrizes e Bases da Educação Nacional-LDBEN - a Lei 9394/96 -, e o Plano Nacional de Educação em Direitos Humanos, entre outros. O NDH- EEFE-USP busca através de suas ações promover a educação em direitos humanos nos âmbitos da pesquisa, ensino, extensão e gestão tendo como base as relações entre educação física e movimento humano. Na pesquisa, visa instruir esse tema como área de conhecimento de caráter interdisciplinar e transdisciplinar. No ensino, visa agregar qualidade à formação de recursos humanos através de oficinas, atividades de sensibilização e intervenções nas disciplinas obrigatórias e optativas. Na extensão, busca desenvolver atividades de capacitação, assessoria e eventos, abordando o tema de direitos humanos, articuladas com as áreas de ensino e pesquisa. Na gestão, as ações envolvem promoção de conversas e atividades de sensibilização sobre o papel dos gestores, funcionários, docentes e alunos em relação ao respeito e asseguramento dos direitos humanos. Mais especificamente, a atual gestão do NDH-EEFE elegeu como vertentes de atuação nessas frentes: (1) acesso à educação; (2) permanência no processo educacional; (3) acesso e proteção; (4) igualdade de gênero e de orientação sexual; (5) igualdade étnico-racial e (6) igualdade e proteção religiosa, política, cultural, territorial e de nacionalidade. Este Ensaio permitiu o aprofundamento e a divulgação dos pressupostos e das ações do NDH-EEFE.
Por uma educação física antirracista
Authors: Nobrega Carolina Cristina dos Santos
Published: August 2020

O presente artigo discute a contribuição dos docentes negros de educação física no exercício da pedagogia da diversidade. Metodologicamente, optou-se pelo estudo teórico, análise de conteúdo e entrevistas semiestruturadas. A pesquisa apontou que os docentes negros ressignificaram a função social da educação física escolar por meio dos relatos de experiência que legitimam a relevância da diversidade étnico-racial no currículo desse componente, sendo este um caminho viável e potente no combate ao racismo e às desigualdades. Os resultados apontaram os saberes necessários para a construção da educação física antirracista; o reconhecimento das coordenadoras pedagógicas, que perceberam a contribuição das aulas de educação física na construção da identidade afro-brasileira dos discentes e o processo de apropriação das questões étnico-raciais na área em defesa da educação em e para os direitos humanos negros.
Covid y sostenibilidad de la vida
Authors: Landeira Florencia Paz , Gaitán Ana Cecilia
Published: August 2020

Exploraciones etnográficas previas al Covid-19 evidencian que el trabajo orientado a la inclusión social de jóvenes y al fortalecimiento de las familias en la crianza y el cuidado de sus hijos/as a través de programas sociales se inscribe en tramas de relaciones de interdependencia, en las que referentes/as territoriales ponen en juego compromisos interpersonales, morales y afectivos claves para la concreción de los objetivos programáticos, aún en modos en que éstos resultan reconfigurados. En la coyuntura actual, en que la pandemia ha reforzado desigualdades históricas en Argentina y ha tornado aún más precaria la vida en los barrios populares, el trabajo relacional realizado por dichos/as referentes/as en la construcción de lo común y la sostenibilidad de la vida se evidencia en primera plana. Para iluminar analíticamente aquello que queda expuesto en este contexto de crisis, la propuesta es poner a dialogar la literatura antropológica sobre el Estado y las políticas sociales con las discusiones en torno a la categoría de precariedad y reproducción social de la vida. Señalando que éste diálogo sólo será fructífero si incorpora centralmente la categoría de cuidado en los términos en los que el feminismo crítico lo ha definido.
Social distancing patterns in nine municipalities of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil: the Epicovid19/RS study
Authors: Barros Aluisio J D , Victora Cesar G , Menezes Ana M B , Horta Bernardo L , Hartwig Fernando , Victora Gabriel , Pellanda Lúcia C , Dellagostin Odir A , Struchiner Claudio J , Burattini Marcelo N , Gonçalves Marcelo R , Possuelo Lia G , Weber Liliana P , Estima Sonara Lucia , Jacques Nadège , Härter Jenifer , Silva Shana G , Frizzo Matias , Lima Rosangela C , Barros Fernando C , Silveira Mariângela F , Hallal Pedro C
Published: August 2020

OBJECTIVE: To describe social distancing practices in nine municipalities of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, stratified by gender, age, and educational attainment. METHODS: Two sequential cross-sectional studies were conducted in the municipalities of Canoas, Caxias do Sul, Ijuí, Passo Fundo, Pelotas, Porto Alegre, Santa Cruz do Sul, Santa Maria, and Uruguaiana to estimate the population prevalence of COVID-19. The study was designed to be representative of the urban population of these municipalities. A questionnaire including three questions about social distancing was also administered to the participants. Here, we present descriptive analyses of social distancing practices by subgroups and use chi-square tests for comparisons. RESULTS: In terms of degree of social distancing, 25.8% of the interviewees reported being essentially isolated and 41.1% reported being quite isolated. 20.1% of respondents reported staying at home all the time, while 44.5% left only for essential activities. More than half of households reported receiving no visits from non-residents. Adults aged 20 to 59 reported the least social distancing, while more than 80% of participants aged 60 years or older reported being essentially isolated or quite isolated. Women reported more stringent distancing than men. Groups with higher educational attainment reported going out for daily activities more frequently. CONCLUSIONS: The extremes of age are more protected by social distancing, but some groups remain highly exposed. This can be an important limiting factor in controlling progression of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Predictive Value of Coronary Artery Calcium Score Categories for Coronary Events Versus Strokes: Impact of Sex and Race
Authors: Mehta Anurag , Pandey Ambarish , Ayers Colby R. , Khera Amit , Sperling Laurence S. , Szklo Moyses , Gottesman Rebecca F. , Budoff Mathew J. , Blaha Michael J. , Blumenthal Roger S. , Nasir Khurram , Joshi Parag H.
Published: August 2020

Background:

Coronary artery calcium (CAC) predicts atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) events, inclusive of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, and is a decision-making aid for primary prevention. The predictive value of CAC categories for CHD and stroke separately and across sex and race groups of an asymptomatic population is unclear.

Methods:

White, Black, and Hispanic participants of MESA (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis) and DHS (Dallas Heart Study) underwent CAC measurement at enrollment and were followed for incident ASCVD events. Ten-year CHD-to-stroke incidence ratios across CAC score categories 0, 1 to 99, and ≥100 were assessed. Associations of CAC with incident CHD and stroke events were evaluated using multivariable-adjusted Cox models and multiplicative interactions of CAC with sex/race were tested.

Results:

Among 7042 participants (mean age, 57 years, 54% women, 36% Black, 23% Hispanic, 49% CAC=0, 19% CAC ≥100), 574 incident ASCVD events (333 CHD and 241 stroke) were observed over 12.3-year follow-up. Ten-year CHD-to-stroke incidence ratio increased significantly across CAC categories in men, women, Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics (all
P
<0.001). High CAC burden (score ≥100) was independently associated with ASCVD and CHD risk in all groups and with stroke risk in the overall cohort and Blacks. No sex- or race-based CAC interactions for ASCVD, CHD, and stroke events were observed. Adding CAC to a traditional risk factor model improved risk discrimination and reclassification for CHD but not for stroke events.

Conclusions:

In 2 population-based cohorts of asymptomatic individuals, 10-year CHD-to-stroke incidence ratio was higher with increasing CAC score categories across sex and race groups, and CAC was consistently a better predictor of CHD than stroke. High CAC burden comparably associated with ASCVD risk across sex and race groups.
Simultaneous Endo‐Epicardial Mapping of the Human Right Atrium: Unraveling Atrial Excitation
Authors: Kharbanda Rohit K. , Knops Paul , van der Does Lisette J. M. E. , Kik Charles , Taverne Yannick J. H. J. , Roos‐Serote Maarten C. , Heida Annejet , Oei Frans B. S. , Bogers Ad J. J. C. , de Groot Natasja M. S.
Published: August 2020

Background

The significance of endo‐epicardial asynchrony (EEA) and atrial conduction block (CB), which play an important role in the pathophysiology of atrial fibrillation (AF) during sinus rhythm is poorly understood. The aim of our study was therefore to examine 3‐dimensional activation of the human right atrium (RA).

Methods and Results

Eighty patients (79% men, 39% history of AF) underwent simultaneous endo‐epicardial sinus rhythm mapping of the inferior, middle and superior RA. Areas of CB were defined as conduction delays of ≥12 ms, EEA as activation time differences of opposite electrodes of ≥15 ms and transmural CB as CB at similar endo‐epicardial sites. CB was more pronounced at the endocardium (all locations
P
<0.025). Amount, extensiveness and severity of CB was higher at the superior RA. Transmural CB at the inferior RA was associated with a higher incidence of post‐operative AF (
P
=0.03). EEA occurred up to 84 ms and was more pronounced at the superior RA (superior: 27 ms [interquartile range, 18.3–39.3], versus mid‐RA: 20.3 ms [interquartile range, 0–29.9], and inferior RA: 0 ms [interquartile range, 0–21],
P
<0.001). Hypertension (
P
=0.009), diabetes mellitus (
P
=0.018), and hypercholesterolemia (
P
=0.015) were associated with a higher degree of EEA. CB (
P
=0.007) and EEA (
P
=0.037) were more pronounced in patients with a history of persistent AF compared with patients without AF history.

Conclusions

This study provides important insights into complex atrial endo‐epicardial excitation. Significant differences in conduction disorders between the endo‐ and epicardium and a significant degree of EEA are already present during sinus rhythm and are more pronounced in patients with cardiovascular risk factors or a history of persistent AF.
The Cold War and the Communist Party of Saudi Arabia, 1975–1991
Authors: Matthiesen Toby
Published: August 2020

The Communist Party of Saudi Arabia was a pro-Soviet Marxist-Leninist party that existed from 1975 until the early 1990s. Its roots lay in the labor movement of the 1950s in the oil-producing Eastern Province. The history of this province is a hitherto almost unknown aspect of modern Saudi history, Arab Marxism, and the broader Cold War. The Saudi Communist Party helped to launch an uprising in 1979 in the Eastern Province and was particularly active in propagating its ideas throughout the 1980s as the Soviet Union and Saudi Arabia fought a proxy war in Afghanistan. Despite opposing the monarchy's use of Islam as a tool of legitimacy and a propaganda instrument against Communism in the Cold War, the party called for a common front with Islamic groups opposed to the monarchy at home. After the dissolution of the party in 1991, former party members became key actors in the reformist petitions of 1990–1991, 2003, and 2011. This article is based on fieldwork in Saudi Arabia, interviews with veteran leftists from the region, and hitherto unexamined primary sources in Arabic, German, and English, including party publications and archival sources.
Framing William Albertson: The FBI's “Solo” Operation and the Cold War
Authors: Haynes John Earl , Klehr Harvey
Published: August 2020

William Albertson, who was executive secretary of the New York Communist Party and a member of the National Committee of the Communist Party USA (CPUSA), was framed as an informant for the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) in 1964. Only in recent years have newly released FBI records enabled scholars to understand why the FBI undertook the operation and how much damage it did to the CPUSA. In 1964 two leaks from the FBI hinted that the bureau had a high-level informant in the CPUSA who was providing information about secret Soviet subsidies. The leaks were accurate and endangered one of the FBI's most successful intelligence operations, Operation Solo, which involved the use of two brothers, Morris Childs and Jack Childs, who were confidants of CPUSA General Secretary Gus Hall, as key informants. The framing of Albertson was intended to deflect CPUSA and Soviet attention from the real FBI informants to a bogus one. The ploy succeeded. The forged documents the FBI planted convinced Hall and other senior CPUSA officials that Albertson was the FBI informant. Despite Albertson's vehement denials and energetic defense, he was expelled. The CPUSA thought it had eliminated the informant, and the Childs brothers were able to continue in their role until old age forced their retirement in 1977.
Binless Kernel Machine: Modeling Spike Train Transformation for Cognitive Neural Prostheses
Authors: Qian Cunle , Sun Xuyun , Wang Yueming , Zheng Xiaoxiang , Wang Yiwen , Pan Gang
Published: August 2020

Modeling spike train transformation among brain regions helps in designing a cognitive neural prosthesis that restores lost cognitive functions. Various methods analyze the nonlinear dynamic spike train transformation between two cortical areas with low computational eficiency. The application of a real-time neural prosthesis requires computational eficiency, performance stability, and better interpretation of the neural firing patterns that modulate target spike generation. We propose the binless kernel machine in the point-process framework to describe nonlinear dynamic spike train transformations. Our approach embeds the binless kernel to eficiently capture the feedforward dynamics of spike trains and maps the input spike timings into reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS). An inhomogeneous Bernoulli process is designed to combine with a kernel logistic regression that operates on the binless kernel to generate an output spike train as a point process. Weights of the proposed model are estimated by maximizing the log likelihood of output spike trains in RKHS, which allows a global-optimal solution. To reduce computational complexity, we design a streaming-based clustering algorithm to extract typical and important spike train features. The cluster centers and their weights enable the visualization of the important input spike train patterns that motivate or inhibit output neuron firing. We test the proposed model on both synthetic data and real spike train data recorded from the dorsal premotor cortex and the primary motor cortex of a monkey performing a center-out task. Performances are evaluated by discrete-time rescaling Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. Our model outperforms the existing methods with higher stability regardless of weight initialization and demonstrates higher eficiency in analyzing neural patterns from spike timing with less historical input (50%). Meanwhile, the typical spike train patterns selected according to weights are validated to encode output spike from the spike train of single-input neuron and the interaction of two input neurons.
Turleania rubriguttatus, a new species of pagurid hermit crab (Decapoda: Anomura: Paguroidea) from shallow water in Japan, with notes on T. senticosa (McLaughlin & Haig, 1996)
Authors: KOMAI TOMOYUKI
Published: August 2020

A new species of the pagurid hermit crab genus Turleania McLaughlin, 1997, T. rubriguttatus, is described on the basis of two specimens, including one male and one female, from shallow subtidal waters in Kochi Prefecture, Japan. The new species appears close to T. albatrossae (McLaughlin & Haig, 1996), known from the Philippines, but the proximally unarmed dorsal surface of the right chela palm and the lack of a dorsomesial row of spines on the left cheliped carpus easily distinguish T. rubriguttatus n. sp. from T. albatrossae. Examination of the type material of T. similis Komai, 1999 and T. spinimanus Komai, 1999, and supplemental material from Japan, confirms that the two taxa are synonymous with T. senticosa (McLaughlin & Haig, 1996), as was suggested by previous authors. Re-examination clarified that in T. senticosa the maxilliped 3 has no developed arthrobranchs, and this led the author to assess the status of T. sinensis Han, Sha & An, 2016, which is also synonymised with T. senticosa.
A new species of Corcyrogobius (Teleostei: Gobiidae) from Île de Ngor, Senegal
Authors: KOVAČIĆ MARCELO , WIRTZ PETER , SCHLIEWEN ULRICH K.
Published: August 2020

Corcyrogobius pulcher sp. nov. is described from off Île de Ngor, Dakar, Senegal. Corcyrogobius pulcher is distinguished from its two congeners by having the rear edge of the jaws ending posteriorly below mideye, second dorsal fin I/9, pectoral fin rays 17, pelvic fins oval or truncated posteriorly, scales in lateral series 26–27, anterior oculoscapular head canal with pore β, suborbital row b of sensory papillae anteriorly beginning below vertical of posterior edge of eye, dark vertical caudal bar, branchiostegal membrane without intense dark spot, cheek with two oblique whitish stripes, the first going from the eye downwards and forward to the posterior jaws, the second on the preopercular, alternating with brown oblique stripe going from behind the eye downwards and forward across the cheek. Furthermore, mitochondrial COI-barcoding data unambiguously support the species-level distinctiveness of the three Corcyrogobius species. A key to the species of Corcyrogobius is provided.
Regional Variability and Trends of Temperature Inversions in Greenland
Authors: Shahi Sonika , Abermann Jakob , Heinrich Georg , Prinz Rainer , Schöner Wolfgang
Published: August 2020

Strong and thick temperature inversions are key components of the Arctic climate system and it is important to study and better understand them. The present study quantifies the temporal and spatial variability of surface-based inversions (SBIs) and elevated inversions (EIs) over Greenland, as derived from the ERA-Interim (ERA-I) dataset for the period 1979–2017. The seasonal and multiannual variability of inversion strength, thickness, and frequency are examined. Our results clearly show regional as well as seasonal patterns of both SBIs and EIs. SBIs are more frequent and stronger than EIs, and the spatial variability of inversions is larger during winter and smaller during summer. Furthermore, during summer, there has been a trend toward stronger (0.3 K decade−1), thicker (12 m decade−1), and more frequent (3% decade−1) SBIs in the southern part of Greenland, especially in the past two decades. Evidently, the strengthening of the anticyclone over Greenland causes a reduction of cloud cover, which manifests in an increase in SBI strength and thickness, particularly in the southern part of Greenland.
A Hybrid Precipitation Index Inspired by the SPI, PDSI, and MCDI. Part II: Application to Investigate Precipitation Variability along the West Coast of North America
Authors: Chelton Dudley B. , Risien Craig M.
Published: August 2020

The hybrid precipitation index developed in Part I of this study is applied to investigate precipitation variability along the west coast of North America during the wet season November–March on monthly-to-interannual time scales. The variability in each of six regions considered in this study is negatively correlated with nearby 500-hPa geopotential height anomalies. Except in Southeast Alaska, these correlation patterns indicate that precipitation variability in each region is predominantly influenced by local atmospheric forcing analogous to the ridging of the westerly flow that has been studied extensively with regard to California drought variability. The first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) accounts for nearly all of the Southeast Alaska precipitation variability, which is controlled by the strength of the onshore flow rather than ridging. In association with this mode of variability, precipitation anomalies of opposite sign account for about 40% of the precipitation variance in Northern California and Oregon on all time scales. On short time scales, the second and third EOFs account primarily for precipitation variability in British Columbia/Washington and California, respectively. With increasing time scale, the third EOF diminishes in importance and the second EOF evolves into a pattern of synchronous precipitation anomalies of the same sign from British Columbia to Northern California. Precipitation variability in Southern California is only modestly related to precipitation elsewhere. With increasing time scale, Southern California precipitation variability becomes increasingly related to precipitation anomalies of opposite sign in Washington.
Prediction of Seasonal Meteorological Drought Onset and Termination over the Southern Great Plains in the North American Multimodel Ensemble
Authors: Seager Richard , Nakamura Jennifer , Ting Mingfang
Published: August 2020

The predictability on the seasonal time scale of meteorological drought onsets and terminations over the southern Great Plains is examined within the North American Multimodel Ensemble. The drought onsets and terminations were those identified based on soil moisture transitions in land data assimilation systems and shown to be driven by precipitation anomalies. Sea surface temperature (SST) forcing explains about a quarter of variance of seasonal mean precipitation in the region. However, at lead times of a season, forecast SSTs only explain about 10% of seasonal mean precipitation variance. For the three identified drought onsets, fall 2010 is confidently predicted and spring 2012 is predicted with some skill, and fall 2005 was not predicted at all. None of the drought terminations were predicted on the seasonal time scale. Predictability of drought onset arises from La Niña–like conditions, but there is no indication that El Niño conditions lead to drought terminations in the southern Great Plains. Spring 2012 and fall 2000 are further examined. The limited predictability of onset in spring 2012 arises from cool tropical Pacific SSTs, but internal atmospheric variability played a very important role. Drought termination in fall 2000 was predicted at the 1-month time scale but not at the seasonal time scale, likely because of failure to predict warm SST anomalies directly east of subtropical Asia. The work suggests that improved SST prediction offers some potential for improved prediction of both drought onsets and terminations in the southern Great Plains, but that many onsets and terminations will not be predictable even a season in advance.
Evaluation of a Physics-Based Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Model for Risk Assessment
Authors: Xi Dazhi , Lin Ning , Smith James
Published: August 2020

Heavy rainfall generated by landfalling tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause extreme flooding. A physics-based TC rainfall model (TCRM) has been developed and coupled with a TC climatology model to study TC rainfall climatology. In this study, we evaluate TCRM with rainfall observations made by satellite (of North Atlantic TCs from 1999 to 2018) and radar (of 36 U.S. landfalling TCs); we also examine the influence on the rainfall estimation of the key input to TCRM—the wind profile. We found that TCRM can simulate relatively well the rainfall from TCs that have a coherent and compact structure and limited interaction with other meteorological systems. The model can simulate the total rainfall from TCs well, although it often overestimates rainfall in the inner core of TCs, slightly underestimates rainfall in the outer regions, and renders a less asymmetric rainfall structure than the observations. It can capture rainfall distribution in coastal areas relatively well but may underestimate rainfall maximums in mountainous regions and has less capability to accurately simulate TC rainfall in higher latitudes. Also, it can capture the interannual variability of TC rainfall and averaged features of the time series of TC rainfall but cannot accurately reproduce the probability distribution of short-term (1 h) rainfall. Among the tested theoretical wind profile inputs to TCRM, a complete wind profile that accurately describes the wind structure in both the inner ascending and outer descending regions of the storm is found to perform the best in accurately generating various rainfall metrics.
Robustness of Process-Based versus Data-Driven Modeling in Changing Climatic Conditions
Authors: O Sungmin , Dutra Emanuel , Orth Rene
Published: August 2020

Future climate projections require Earth system models to simulate conditions outside their calibration range. It is therefore crucial to understand the applicability of such models and their modules under transient conditions. This study assesses the robustness of different types of models in terms of rainfall–runoff modeling under changing conditions. In particular, two process-based models and one data-driven model are considered: 1) the physically based land surface model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, 2) the conceptual Simple Water Balance Model, and 3) the Long Short-Term Memory-Based Runoff model. Using streamflow data from 161 catchments across Europe, a differential split-sample test is performed, i.e., models are calibrated within a reference period (e.g., wet years) and then evaluated during a climatically contrasting period (e.g., drier years). Models show overall performance loss, which generally increases the more conditions deviate from the reference climate. Further analysis reveals that the models have difficulties in capturing temporal shifts in the hydroclimate of the catchments, e.g., between energy- and water-limited conditions. Overall, relatively high robustness is demonstrated by the physically based model. This suggests that improvements of physics-based parameterizations can be a promising avenue toward reliable climate change simulations. Further, our study illustrates that comparison across process-based and data-driven models is challenging due to their different nature. While we find rather low robustness of the data-driven model in our particular split-sample setup, this must not apply generally; by contrast, such model schemes have great potential as they can learn diverse conditions from observed spatial and temporal variability both at the same time to yield robust performance.
On the Predictability of Sea Surface Height around Palau
Authors: Andres Magdalena , Musgrave Ruth C. , Rudnick Daniel L. , Zeiden Kristin L. , Peacock Thomas , Park Jae-Hun
Published: August 2020

As part of the Flow Encountering Abrupt Topography (FLEAT) program, an array of pressure-sensor equipped inverted echo sounders (PIESs) was deployed north of Palau where the westward-flowing North Equatorial Current encounters the southern end of the Kyushu–Palau Ridge in the tropical North Pacific. Capitalizing on concurrent observations from satellite altimetry, FLEAT Spray gliders, and shipboard hydrography, the PIESs’ 10-month duration hourly bottom pressure p and round-trip acoustic travel time τ records are used to examine the magnitude and predictability of sea level and pycnocline depth changes and to track signal propagations through the array. Sea level and pycnocline depth are found to vary in response to a range of ocean processes, with their magnitude and predictability strongly process dependent. Signals characterized here comprise the barotropic tides, semidiurnal and diurnal internal tides, southeastward-propagating superinertial waves, westward-propagating mesoscale eddies, and a strong signature of sea level increase and pycnocline deepening associated with the region’s relaxation from El Niño to La Niña conditions. The presence of a broad band of superinertial waves just above the inertial frequency was unexpected and the FLEAT observations and output from a numerical model suggest that these waves detected near Palau are forced by remote winds east of the Philippines. The PIES-based estimates of pycnocline displacement are found to have large uncertainties relative to overall variability in pycnocline depth, as localized deep current variations arising from interactions of the large-scale currents with the abrupt topography around Palau have significant travel time variability.
Observed Eddy–Internal Wave Interactions in the Southern Ocean
Authors: Cusack Jesse M. , Brearley J. Alexander , Naveira Garabato Alberto C. , Smeed David A. , Polzin Kurt L. , Velzeboer Nick , Shakespeare Callum J.
Published: August 2020

The physical mechanisms that remove energy from the Southern Ocean’s vigorous mesoscale eddy field are not well understood. One proposed mechanism is direct energy transfer to the internal wave field in the ocean interior, via eddy-induced straining and shearing of preexisting internal waves. The magnitude, vertical structure, and temporal variability of the rate of energy transfer between eddies and internal waves is quantified from a 14-month deployment of a mooring cluster in the Scotia Sea. Velocity and buoyancy observations are decomposed into wave and eddy components, and the energy transfer is estimated using the Reynolds-averaged energy equation. We find that eddies gain energy from the internal wave field at a rate of −2.2 ± 0.6 mW m−2, integrated from the bottom to 566 m below the surface. This result can be decomposed into a positive (eddy to wave) component, equal to 0.2 ± 0.1 mW m−2, driven by horizontal straining of internal waves, and a negative (wave to eddy) component, equal to −2.5 ± 0.6 mW m−2, driven by vertical shearing of the wave spectrum. Temporal variability of the transfer rate is much greater than the mean value. Close to topography, large energy transfers are associated with low-frequency buoyancy fluxes, the underpinning physics of which do not conform to linear wave dynamics and are thereby in need of further research. Our work suggests that eddy–internal wave interactions may play a significant role in the energy balance of the Southern Ocean mesoscale eddy and internal wave fields.
Temporal Variations of a Natural Hydrocarbon Seep Using a Deep-Sea Camera System
Authors: Razaz Mahdi , Di Iorio Daniela , Wang Binbin , MacDonald Ian
Published: August 2020

Two video time-lapse cameras (VTLCs) were deployed by a remotely operated underwater vehicle (ROV) to observe the temporal and spatial variability of a natural hydrocarbon seep at 1180 m depth in the Green Canyon 600 lease block, Gulf of Mexico. The VTLCs were positioned approximately 60 and 90 cm away from the vent, each recording 15 s video bursts at 30 frames per second, illuminated by a 2000 lumen (lm) LED lamp. One camera functioned for 2 weeks; the second camera recorded 568 video bursts at 6 h intervals from 3 September 2017 to 2 February 2018 (153 days). Over the campaign period, seepage from three vents along a 10 cm cluster shifted toward a new fault line with up to nine intermittent individual vents shifting along 20 cm. We developed a semisupervised algorithm using Mathematica and ImageJ routines to resolve the rise velocity and size of individual bubbles. The algorithm was applied to the last 30 frames of each video burst. Bubble characteristics were also analyzed in the videos recorded by the ROV camera. Processing VTLC records yielded a bubble size distribution comparable (5% deviation) to the ROV camera, while the rise velocities were found to be 12% smaller than the ROV data. Hydrocarbon flux estimated from VTLC data was also compared favorably (2% difference) with synoptic physical collections of hydrocarbons into an ROV-held funnel. The long-term measurements indicate that bubble rise velocity was weakly correlated to the discharge rate as well as to the cross-flow velocity.
Evaluating Radiometric Responsivity Degradations of TANSO-FTS/GOSAT Using Principal Component Analysis
Authors: Someya Yu , Yoshida Yukio
Published: August 2020

The short-wavelength infrared bands of the Thermal and Near-Infrared Sensor for Carbon Observation (TANSO)–Fourier transform spectrometer (FTS) instrument on board theGreenhouse Gas Observing Satellite(GOSAT) have degraded, which affects the retrieval of data for CO2and CH4. Herein, a new algorithm that uses principal component analysis (PCA) to evaluate these degradations from on-orbit solar calibration spectra has been developed. The datasets of the spectra were decomposed using PCA, and the temporal variations of their components were fitted using the appropriate functions. Our results show that PCA is effective to construct a suitable degradation model for TANSO-FTS. Comparisons of CO2data retrieved using the new degradation model with that using the ground-based FTS indicate that the new model improves the measurement biases.
Separating Cloud and Drizzle Signals in Radar Doppler Spectra Using a Parametric Time Domain Method
Authors: Joshil Shashank S. , Nguyen Cuong M. , Chandrasekar V. , Chiu J. Christine , Blanchard Yann
Published: August 2020

The ability to separate cloud and drizzle returns in active remote sensing observations is important for understanding the microphysics of clouds and precipitation. Yet, robust separations remain challenging in radar remote sensing. Prior methods for cloud and drizzle separation for radar observations use the properties of the Doppler spectra such as skewness. However, these methods have challenges when the drizzle becomes dominant in the observation volume. This paper presents a parametric time domain method (PTDM) that separates cloud and drizzle using the Doppler spectra measurements without assuming any prior properties of cloud and drizzle. The advantage of PTDM is that it can estimate the signal properties in the time domain and can obtain the cloud and drizzle estimates simultaneously. Based on our radar signal simulations, the uncertainty in estimated power and velocity from PTDM are within 2 dB and 0.02 m s−1, respectively. We have also evaluated the PTDM algorithm using observations from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Program W-band cloud radar in the Clouds, Aerosols, and Precipitation in the Marine Boundary Layer (CAP-MBL) campaign at the Azores in 2009–10. Two cases corresponding to light and moderate drizzling conditions are considered for the study. The statistics of the estimates obtained show that the PTDM method performs well in separating the cloud and drizzle returns. Finally, the estimated cloud and drizzle reflectivity from PTDM were used to retrieve their corresponding microphysical properties, showing that the retrieved liquid water path agrees to 25 g m−2 with the benchmark microwave method.
Demonstrating the Potential of Low-Cost GPS Units for the Remote Measurement of Tides and Water Levels Using Interferometric Reflectometry
Authors: Williams Simon D. P. , Bell Paul S. , McCann David L. , Cooke Richard , Sams Christine
Published: August 2020

A low-cost [$30 (U.S. dollars)] consumer grade GPS receiver with a sideways-mounted antenna has been applied to measure tidal water levels at a mesotidal coastal site using an interferometric reflectometry approach. The proof-of-concept system was installed approximately 16 m above mean sea level in close proximity to a conventional bubbler tide gauge that provided validation data. The received signal-to-noise ratios (SNR) for the satellites in view were recorded for several months during two successive years and the observed frequencies of the interferometric oscillations used to calculate the difference in elevation between the receiver and the water surface. Comparisons with concurrent and historic in situ tide gauge data at the site initially helped to identify a calibration issue with the in situ gauge. The GPS-based measurements were shown to be in excellent agreement with the corrected in situ gauge, exhibiting a root-mean-square difference of 5.7 cm over a tidal range exceeding 3 m at spring tides and a daily averaged RMS of 1.7 cm. The SNR data from the low-cost GPS receivers are shown to provide significantly higher-quality data for this purpose compared with high-end geodetic grade receivers at similar sites. This low-cost, widely available technology has the potential to be applied globally for monitoring water levels in a wide variety of circumstances and applications that would otherwise be cost or situation prohibitive. It could also be applied as an independent cross check and quality control measure for conventional water-level gauges.
An adaptive Markov Chain approach for probabilistic forecasting of categorical events
Authors: Pope Edward C.D. , Stephenson David B. , Jackson David R.
Published: August 2020

Categorical probabilistic prediction is widely used for terrestrial and space weather forecasting as well as for other environmental forecasts. One example is a warning system for geomagnetic disturbances caused by space weather, which are often classified on a 10-level scale.

The simplest approach assumes that the transition probabilities are stationary in time – the Homogeneous Markov Chain (HMC). We extend this approach by developing a flexible Non-Homogeneous Markov Chain (NHMC) model using Bayesian non-parametric estimation to describe the time-varying transition probabilities. The transition probabilities are updated using a modified Bayes’ rule that gradually forgets transitions in the distant past, with a tunable memory parameter.

The approaches were tested by making daily geomagnetic state forecasts at lead times of 1-4 days and verified over the period 2000-2019 using the Rank Probability Score (RPS). Both HMC and NHMC models were found to be skilful at all lead times when compared with climatological forecasts. The NHMC forecasts with an optimal memory parameter of ~100 days were found to be substantially more skilful than the HMC forecasts, with an RPS skill for the NHMC of 10.5% and 5.6% for lead times of 1 and 4 days ahead, respectively. The NHMC is thus a viable alternative approach for forecasting geomagnetic disturbances, and could provide a new benchmark for producing operational forecasts.

The approach is generic and applicable to other forecasts including discrete weather regimes or hydrological conditions, e.g. wet and dry days.
Simulated Tropical Precipitation Assessed across Three Major Phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)
Authors: Fiedler Stephanie , Crueger Traute , D’Agostino Roberta , Peters Karsten , Becker Tobias , Leutwyler David , Paccini Laura , Burdanowitz Jörg , Buehler Stefan A. , Cortes Alejandro Uribe , Dauhut Thibaut , Dommenget Dietmar , Fraedrich Klaus , Jungandreas Leonore , Maher Nicola , Naumann Ann Kristin , Rugenstein Maria , Sakradzija Mirjana , Schmidt Hauke , Sielmann Frank , Stephan Claudia , Timmreck Claudia , Zhu Xiuhua , Stevens Bjorn
Published: August 2020

The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.