bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Strategic thinking and behavior during a pandemic
Authors: Halevy Nir
Published: January 2023

This paper introduces a novel theoretical model and measure of strategic thinking in social decision making. The model distinguishes four strategic orientations: egocentric (thinking about how one’s actions shape one’s outcomes), impact (thinking about how one’s actions shapes others’ outcomes), dependency (thinking about how others’ actions shape one’s outcomes), and altercentric (thinking about how others’ actions shape their outcomes). Applying this model to explain social behavior in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, an exploratory study finds that the more people think about how their actions shape others’ outcomes, the more likely they are to: (a) comply with social distancing restrictions designed to curb the spread of the virus, and (b) donate money they received in the study to charitable organizations. These findings advance understanding of the multifaceted nature of strategic thinking and highlight the usefulness of the Strategic Thinking Scale for explaining social behavior.
Too smart for their own good: Trading truthfulness for efficiency in the Israeli medical internship market
Authors: Rosenfeld Ariel , Hassidim Avinatan
Published: January 2023

The two most fundamental notions in mechanism design are truthfulness and efficiency. In many market settings, such as the classic one-sided matching/assignment setting, these two properties partially conflict, creating a trade-off which is rarely examined in the real-world. In this article, we investigate this trade-off through the high-stakes Israeli medical internship market. This market used to employ a standard truthful yet sub-optimal mechanism and it has recently transitioned to an “almost” truthful, more efficient mechanism. Through this in-the-field study, spanning over two years, we study the interns’ behavior using both official data and targeted surveys. We first identify that substantial strategic behaviors are exercised by the participants, virtually eliminating any efficiency gains from the transition. In order to mitigate the above, we performed an intervention in which conclusive evidence was provided showing that, for most of the interns, reporting truthfully was much better than what they actually did. Unfortunately, a re-examination of the market reveals that our intervention had only minor effects. These results combine to question the practical benefits of “almost” truthfulness in real-world market settings and shed new light on the typical truthfulness-efficiency trade-off.
The way of making choices: Maximizing and satisficing and its relationship to well-being, personality, and self-rumination
Authors: Vargová Lenka , Zibrínová Ľubica , Baník Gabriel
Published: January 2023

There is a lively debate about the effect of maximizing and satisficing tendencies on well-being. The question is, whether maximizing and satisficing have an adaptive or maladaptive effect on well-being. There are also issues regarding the conceptualization and measurement of maximizing and satisficing tendencies. In a sample of 514 subjects from the general population in Slovakia, a two-component model of maximizing was examined. Satisficing tendency was measured as a separate construct. The results show the usefulness of a two-component model (maximizing as a strategy and maximizing as a goal) in measuring maximizing tendency. Maximizing as a strategy (measured as alternative search) turned out to be maladaptive (positively related to depression and negatively related to happiness), whereas maximizing as a goal (measured as high standards) had no maladaptive effect (no relation with well-being). In addition, the two components were differently associated with personality factors, which strengthens the need to distinguish between them. However, the satisficing tendency measured separately from maximizing tendency was not related to anything which raises a question about the conceptualization and validity of this tendency. The results of the current study, therefore, indicate that the (mal)adaptive effect of these tendencies depends on their conceptualization as well as on how these tendencies are measured, and also on their different relationship with personality factors. However, results also point to the importance of considering the cultural context that may have an effect on the relationship between maximizing and well-being. Therefore, the results may vary due to different cultures.
Information, incentives, and goals in election forecasts
Authors: Gelman Andrew , Hullman Jessica , Wlezien Christopher , Elliott Morris George
Published: January 2023

Presidential elections can be forecast using information from political and economic conditions, polls, and a statistical model of changes in public opinion over time. However, these “knowns” about how to make a good presidential election forecast come with many unknowns due to the challenges of evaluating forecast calibration and communication. We highlight how incentives may shape forecasts, and particularly forecast uncertainty, in light of calibration challenges. We illustrate these challenges in creating, communicating, and evaluating election predictions, using the Economist and Fivethirtyeight forecasts of the 2020 election as examples, and offer recommendations for forecasters and scholars.
Eye-tracking evidence for fixation asymmetries in verbal and numerical quantifier processing
Authors: Holford Dawn Liu , Juanchich Marie , Foulsham Tom , Sirota Miroslav , Clarke Alasdair D. F.
Published: January 2023

When people are given quantified information (e.g., ‘there is a 60% chance of rain’), the format of quantifiers (i.e., numerical: ‘a 60% chance’ vs. verbal: ‘it is likely’) might affect their decisions. Previous studies with indirect cues of judgements and decisions (e.g., response times, decision outcomes) give inconsistent findings that could support either a more intuitive process for verbal than numerical quantifiers or a greater focus on the context (e.g., rain) for verbal than numerical quantifiers. We used two pre-registered eye-tracking experiments (n(1) = 148, n(2) = 133) to investigate decision-making processes with verbal and numerical quantifiers. Participants evaluated multiple verbally or numerically quantified nutrition labels (Experiment 1) and weather forecasts (Experiment 2) with different context valence (positive or negative), and quantities (‘low’, ‘medium’, or ‘high’ in Experiment 1 and ‘possible’, ‘likely’, or ‘very likely’ in Experiment 2) presented in a fully within-subjects design. Participants looked longer at verbal than numerical quantifiers, and longer at the contextual information with verbal quantifiers. Quantifier format also affected judgements and decisions: in Experiment 1, participants judged positive labels to be better in the verbal compared to the equivalent numerical condition (and to be worse for negative labels). In Experiment 2, participants decided on rain protection more for a verbal forecast of rain than the equivalent numerical forecast. The results fit the explanation that verbal quantifiers put more focus on the informational context than do numerical quantifiers, rather than prompting more intuitive decisions.
On the validity of the CNI model of moral decision-making: Reply to Baron and Goodwin (2020)
Authors: Gawronski Bertram , Conway Paul , Hütter Mandy , Luke Dillon M. , Armstrong Joel , Friesdorf Rebecca
Published: January 2023

The CNI model of moral decision-making is a formal model that quantifies (1) sensitivity to consequences, (2) sensitivity to moral norms, and (3) general preference for inaction versus action in responses to moral dilemmas. Based on a critique of the CNI model’s conceptual assumptions, properties of the moral dilemmas for research using the CNI model, and the robustness of findings obtained with the CNI model against changes in model specifications, Baron and Goodwin (2020) dismissed the CNI model as a valid approach to study moral dilemma judgments. Here, we respond to their critique, showing that Baron and Goodwin’s dismissal of the CNI model is based on: (1) misunderstandings of key aspects of the model; (2) a conceptually problematic conflation of behavioral effects and explanatory mental constructs; (3) arguments that are inconsistent with empirical evidence; and (4) reanalyses that supposedly show inconsistent findings resulting from changes in model specifications, although the reported reanalyses did not actually use the CNI model and proper analyses with the CNI model yield consistent findings across model specifications. Although Baron and Goodwin’s critique reveals a need for greater precision in the description of the three model parameters and for greater attention to properties of individual dilemmas, the available evidence indicates that the CNI model is a valid, robust, and empirically sound approach to gaining deeper insights into the determinants of moral dilemma judgments, overcoming major limitations of the traditional approach that pits moral norms against consequences for the greater good (e.g., trolley dilemma).
When two wrongs make a right: The efficiency-consumption gap under separate vs. joint evaluations
Authors: Gamliel Eyal , Pe’er Eyal
Published: January 2023

The MPG illusion and the time-saving bias both show that people misjudge the gains from increases in efficiency or speed, because people falsely believe that efficiency and speed are linearly related to consumption (e.g., gallons of fuel or journey time). This efficiency-consumption gap (ECG) has been demonstrated consistently in various situations. In parallel, people have also been found to show a diminished sensitivity to increases in magnitudes when judged under separate vs. joint evaluation modes (SE vs. JE). We show that these “two wrongs can make a right”: when people judge efficiency upgrades under SE mode, their subjective judgments follow a concave curve that closely resembles the curvilinear pattern of efficiency upgrades, making their preferences (artificially) less biased than they are under JE. In two studies we show that when asked for their willingness-to-pay (WTP) for upgrading products or services in two (a smaller vs. a larger) upgrade options, WTPs are less different in SE vs. JE modes. This means that people are exhibiting lower sensitivity to the upgrade size under SE which leads to a de-biasing effect. We show that because JE follow a linear trend, it yields biased preferences for efficiency measures, but not for consumption measures. In contrast, SE yield biased preferences for consumption, but not for efficiency measures.
Anchoring without scale distortion
Authors: Bahník Štěpán
Published: January 2023

The scale distortion theory of anchoring argues that people are influenced by a previously considered numeric value, an anchor, because the anchor distorts the scale on which a subsequent judgment is made. The distortion of the scale due to the anchor is a momentary effect that would be overridden if the scale was distorted again, for example, by consideration of a different value on the same scale. In the present study, participants compared thirteen random anchors on the same scale to thirteen different objects. Subsequent numeric estimates of objects’ attributes were influenced by the corresponding anchors even though the anchors were divided from the estimates by twelve questions pertaining to different values on the same scale. The numeric value considered immediately before the estimate did not have a considerable effect on the judgment. While the anchoring effect was robust, it cannot be easily explained by scale distortion. Other possible theories of the anchoring effect are compatible with the results.
Seven (weak and strong) helping effects systematically tested in separate evaluation, joint evaluation and forced choice
Authors: Erlandsson Arvid
Published: January 2023

In ten studies (N = 9187), I systematically investigated the direction and size of seven helping effects (the identifiable-victim effect, proportion dominance effect, ingroup effect, existence effect, innocence effect, age effect and gender effect). All effects were tested in three decision modes (separate evaluation, joint evaluation and forced choice), and in their weak form (equal efficiency), or strong form (unequal efficiency). Participants read about one, or two, medical help projects and rated the attractiveness of and allocated resources to the project/projects, or choose which project to implement. The results show that the included help-situation attributes vary in their: (1) Evaluability – e.g., rescue proportion is the easiest to evaluate in separate evaluation. (2) Justifiability – e.g., people prefer to save fewer lives now rather than more lives in the future, but not fewer identified lives rather than more statistical lives. (3) Prominence – e.g., people express a preference to help females, but only when forced to choose.
Establishing the laws of preferential choice behavior
Authors: Bhatia Sudeep , Loomes Graham , Read Daniel
Published: January 2023

Mathematical and computational decision models are powerful tools for studying choice behavior, and hundreds of distinct decision models have been proposed over the long interdisciplinary history of decision making research. The existence of so many models has led to theoretical fragmentation and redundancy, obscuring key insights into choice behavior, and preventing consensus about the essential properties of preferential choice. We provide a synthesis of formal models of risky, multiattribute, and intertemporal choice, three important domains in decision making. We identify recurring insights discovered by scholars of different generations and different disciplines across these three domains, and use these insights to classify over 150 existing models as involving various combinations of eight key mathematical and computational properties. These properties capture the main avenues of theoretical development in decision making research and can be used to understand the similarities and differences between decision models, aiding both theoretical analyses and empirical tests.
Revenge is not blind: Testing the ability of retribution to justify dishonesty
Authors: Peleg Dar , Hochman Guy , Levine Timothy , Klar Yechiel , Ayal Shahar
Published: January 2023

In two studies, we tested the power of revenge as a justification mechanism that enables people to cheat with a clear conscience. Specifically, we explored the effects of prior dishonesty and unfairness towards participants on their subsequent moral behavior, as well as the physiological arousal associated with it. To this end, we employed a two-phase procedure. In the first phase, participants played one round of a bargaining game (the Ultimatum game in Study 1 and the Dictator game in Study 2) in which we manipulated whether the players had been treated (un)fairly and (dis)honestly by their opponent. In the second phase, they did a perceptual task that allowed them to cheat for monetary gain at the expense of their opponent from the first phase. In Study 1, participants also took a lie detector test to assess whether their dishonesty in the second phase could be detected. The behavioral results in both studies indicated that the opponent’s dishonesty was a stronger driver than the opponent’s unfairness for cheating as a form of retaliation. However, the physiological arousal results suggest that feeling mistreated in general (and not just cheated) allowed the participants to get revenge by cheating the offender while dismissing their associated guilt feelings.
Forecasting forecaster accuracy: Contributions of past performance and individual differences
Authors: Himmelstein Mark , Atanasov Pavel , Budescu David V.
Published: January 2023

A growing body of research indicates that forecasting skill is a unique and stable trait: forecasters with a track record of high accuracy tend to maintain this record. But how does one identify skilled forecasters effectively? We address this question using data collected during two seasons of a longitudinal geopolitical forecasting tournament. Our first analysis, which compares psychometric traits assessed prior to forecasting, indicates intelligence consistently predicts accuracy. Next, using methods adapted from classical test theory and item response theory, we model latent forecasting skill based on the forecasters’ past accuracy, while accounting for the timing of their forecasts relative to question resolution. Our results suggest these methods perform better at assessing forecasting skill than simpler methods employed by many previous studies. By parsing the data at different time points during the competitions, we assess the relative importance of each information source over time. When past performance information is limited, psychometric traits are useful predictors of future performance, but, as more information becomes available, past performance becomes the stronger predictor of future accuracy. Finally, we demonstrate the predictive validity of these results on out-of-sample data, and their utility in producing performance weights for wisdom-of-crowds aggregations.
Consequences, norms, and inaction: Response to Gawronski et al. (2020)
Authors: Baron Jonathan , Goodwin Geoffrey P.
Published: January 2023

In response to arguments made by Gawronski et al. (2020), responding to Baron and Goodwin (2020), we concentrate on four issues. First, the CNI design requires substantial numbers of “perverse” responses to congruent items — those in which both consequences and norms both favor action, or both favor inaction — and these responses depend on the ambiguity of the items concerning which norms apply or which consequences are worse. Effects of outside variables, such as psychopathy, may result from the effect of such variables on the interpretation of ambiguous items, rather than from their effect on sensitivity to norms or consequences. Second, the CNI design may not be so useful at measuring general action/inaction biases. Third, the order of the two processes in the model could in fact affect the conclusions drawn (even though it does not do so in most studies done so far). Fourth, the conclusions drawn do in fact depend on the items’ susceptibility to reinterpretation (owing to their ambiguity): the tests proposed for item validity are too weak, since they require only that a majority of subjects agree with the experimenters’ classification, even though a minority could affect the conclusions drawn. We illustrate some of our points with an analysis of the psychopathy study of Luke and Gawronski (2020).
TEMAP2.R: True and Error model analysis program in R
Authors: Birnbaum Michael H. , Quispe-Torreblanca Edika G.
Published: January 2023

True and Error Theory (TET) provides a method to separate the variability of behavior into components due to changing true policy and to random error. TET is a testable theory that can serve as a statistical model, allowing one to evaluate substantive theories as nested, special cases. TET is more accurate descriptively and has theoretical advantages over previous approaches. This paper presents a freely available computer program in R that can be used to fit and evaluate both TET and substantive theories that are special cases of it. The program performs Monte Carlo simulations to generate distributions of test statistics and bootstrapping to provide confidence intervals on parameter estimates. Use of the program is illustrated by a reanalysis of previously published data testing whether what appeared to be violations of Expected Utility (EU) theory (Allais paradoxes) by previous methods might actually be consistent with EU theory.
Thinking dynamics and individual differences: Mouse-tracking analysis of the denominator neglect task
Authors: Szaszi Barnabas , Palfi Bence , Szollosi Aba , Kieslich Pascal J. , Aczel Balazs
Published: January 2023

Most decision-making models describing individual differences in heuristics and biases tasks build on the assumption that reasoners produce a first incorrect answer in a quick, automatic way which they may or may not override later and that the advantage of high capacity reasoners arises from this late correction mechanism. To investigate this assumption, we developed a mouse-tracking analysis technique to capture individuals’ first answers and subsequent thinking dynamics. Across two denominator neglect task experiments, we observed that individuals initially move the mouse cursor towards the correct answer option in a substantial number of cases suggesting that reasoners may not always produce an incorrect answer first. Furthermore, we observed that, compared to low capacity reasoners, high capacity individuals revise their first answer more frequently if it is incorrect and make fewer changes if it is correct. However, we did not find evidence that high capacity individuals produce correct initial answers more frequently. Consistent with the predictions of previous decision-making models, these results suggest that in the denominator neglect task the capacity-normativity relationship arises after the initial response is formulated. The present work demonstrates how the analysis of mouse trajectories can be utilized to investigate individual differences in decision-making and help us better apprehend the dynamics of thinking behind decision biases.
The opportunity-threat theory of decision-making under risk
Authors: Pandey Mohan
Published: January 2023

A new theory of decision-making under risk, the Opportunity-Threat Theory is proposed. Analysis of risk into opportunity and threat components allows description of behavior as a combination of opportunity seeking and threat aversion. Expected utility is a special case of this model. The final evaluation is an integration of the impacts of opportunity and threat with this expectation. The model can account for basic results as well as several “new paradoxes” that refuted cumulative prospect theory in favor of configural weight models. The discussion notes similarities and differences of this model to the configural weight TAX model, which can also account for the new paradoxes.
Commitment-enhancing tools in Centipede games: Evidencing European–Japanese differences in trust and cooperation
Authors: Krockow Eva M. , Takezawa Masanori , Pulford Briony D. , Colman Andrew M. , Smithers Samuel , Kita Toshimasa , Nakawake Yo
Published: January 2023

Theories of trust distinguish general trust in situations of social uncertainty from assurance-based trust in committed, long-term relationships. This study investigates European-Japanese differences using the Centipede game, in which two players choose between cooperation and defection. The game models repeated reciprocal interactions, necessitating assurance-based trust to sustain cooperation. We included game conditions offering players the option of purchasing commitment-enhancing tools to increase social certainty. Japanese participants were more cooperative than Europeans, confirming higher assurance-based trust, and also purchased more commitment-enhancing tools, demonstrating their preferences for social certainty. Purchase of commitment-enhancing tools improved cooperativeness in both groups. However, if co-players refused tool purchase, the Japanese appeared to interpret this as non-cooperative intent and cooperativeness in the respective games decreased.
Do the Right Thing: Experimental evidence that preferences for moral behavior, rather than equity or efficiency per se, drive human prosociality
Authors: Capraro Valerio , Rand David G.
Published: January 2023

Decades of experimental research show that some people forgo personal gains to benefit others in unilateral anonymous interactions. To explain these results, behavioral economists typically assume that people have social preferences for minimizing inequality and/or maximizing efficiency (social welfare). Here we present data that cannot be explained by these standard social preference models. We use a “Trade-Off Game” (TOG), where players unilaterally choose between an equitable option and an efficient option. We show that simply changing the labelling of the options to describe the equitable versus efficient option as morally right completely reverses the correlation between behavior in the TOG and play in a separate Dictator Game (DG) or Prisoner’s Dilemma (PD): people who take the action framed as moral in the TOG, be it equitable or efficient, are much more prosocial in the DG and PD. Rather than preferences for equity and/or efficiencyper se, our results suggest that prosociality in games such as the DG and PD are driven by a generalized morality preference that motivates people to do what they think is morally right.
The Short Maximization Inventory
Authors: Ďuriník Michal , Procházka Jakub , Cígler Hynek
Published: January 2023

We developed the Short Maximization Inventory (SMI) by shortening the Maximization Inventory (Turner, Rim, Betz & Nygren, 2012) from 34 items to 15 items. Using the Item Response Theory framework, we identified and removed the items of the Maximization Inventory that contributed least to the performance of the original scale. The construct validity assessed for SMI is similar to the full MI and is in line with the predictions from the literature: the Satisficing subscale is positively related to the indices of well-being, while the Decision Difficulty and Alternative Search subscales are negatively related to well-being. The new scale retains the good psychometric properties of the original scale. Furthermore, its brevity allows researchers to use the scale in studies in which maximization is not the primary focus. Although the SMI lacks the “High Standards” subscale, as did the original MI, we believe that SMI is a step towards developing a reliable and conceptually sound measure of maximizing that can be used in various research designs.
Debiasing System 1: Training favours logical over stereotypical intuiting
Authors: Boissin Esther , Caparos Serge , Voudouri Aikaterini , De Neys Wim
Published: January 2023

Whereas people’s reasoning is often biased by intuitive stereotypical associations, recent debiasing studies suggest that performance can be boosted by short training interventions that stress the underlying problem logic. The nature of this training effect remains unclear. Does training help participants correct erroneous stereotypical intuitions through deliberation? Or does it help them develop correct intuitions? We addressed this issue in four studies with base-rate neglect and conjunction fallacy problems. We used a two-response paradigm in which participants first gave an initial intuitive response, under time pressure and cognitive load, and then gave a final response after deliberation. Studies 1A and 2A showed that training boosted performance and did so as early as the intuitive stage. After training, most participants solved the problems correctly from the outset and no longer needed to correct an initial incorrect answer through deliberation. Studies 1B and 2B indicated that this sound intuiting persisted over at least two months. The findings confirm that a short training can debias reasoning at an intuitive “System 1” stage and get reasoners to favour logical over stereotypical intuitions.
Drafting strategies in fantasy football: A study of competitive sequential human decision making
Authors: Lee Michael D. , Liu Siqi
Published: January 2023

Drafting is a competitive task in which a set of decision makers choose from a set of resources sequentially, with each resource becoming unavailable once selected. How people make these choices raises basic questions about human decision making, including people’s sensitivity to the statistical regularities of the resource environment, their ability to reason about the behavior of their competitors, and their ability to execute and adapt sophisticated strategies in dynamic situations involving uncertainty. Sports provides one real-world example of drafting behavior, in which a set of teams draft players from an available pool in a well-regulated way. Fantasy sport competitions provide potentially large data sets of drafting behavior. We study fantasy football drafting behavior from the 2017 National Football League (NFL) season based on 1350 leagues hosted by the http://sleeper.app platform. We find people are sensitive to some important environmental regularities in the order in which they draft players, but also present evidence that they use a more narrow range of strategies than is likely optimal in terms of team composition. We find little to no evidence for the use of the complicated but well-documented strategy known as handcuffing, and no evidence of irrational influence from individual-level biases for different NFL teams. We do, however, identify a set of circumstances for which there is clear evidence that people’s choices are strongly influenced by the immediately preceding choice made by a competitor.
Preferences after pan(dem)ics: Time and risk in the shadow of COVID-19
Authors: Gassmann Xavier , Malézieux Antoine , Spiegelman Eli , Tisserand Jean-Christian
Published: January 2023

This paper uses the COVID-19 health crisis to study how individual preferences respond to generalized traumatic events. We review previous literature on natural and man-made disasters. Using incentive-compatible tasks, we simultaneously estimate risk and ambiguity aversion, time discounting, present bias, and prudence parameters before, during, and after the COVID-19 lockdown in France. We find patience, risk aversion, and ambiguity aversion fell during lockdown, then gradually returned toward their initial levels 4 months later. These results have implications for health and economic policies, and deepen our understanding of the responses – and resilience – of economic preferences to traumatic events.
Assessing the test-retest reliability of the social value orientation
slider measure
Authors: de Matos Fernandes Carlos A. , Bakker Dieko M. , Dijkstra Jacob
Published: January 2023

Decades of research show that (i) social
value orientation (SVO) is related to important behavioral outcomes such as
cooperation and charitable giving, and (ii)
individuals differ in terms of SVO. A prominent scale to measure SVO is the
social value orientation slider measure (SVOSM). The central premise is that
SVOSM captures a stable trait. But it is unknown how reliable the SVOSM is
over repeated measurements more than one week apart. To fill this knowledge
gap, we followed a sample of N = 495 over 6
months with monthly SVO measurements. We find that continuous SVO scores are
similarly distributed (Anderson-Darling k-sample
p = 0.57) and highly correlated
(r ≥ 0.66) across waves. The intra-class
correlation coefficient of 0.78 attests to a high test-retest reliability.
Using multilevel modeling and multiple visualizations, we furthermore find
that one’s prior SVO score is highly indicative of SVO in future waves,
suggesting that the slider measure consistently captures one’s SVO. Our
analyses validate the slider measure as a reliable SVO scale.
Cognitive miserliness in argument literacy? Effects of intuitive and
analytic thinking on recognizing fallacies
Authors: Svedholm-Häkkinen Annika M. , Kiikeri Mika
Published: January 2023

Fallacies are a particular type of informal argument that are
psychologically compelling and often used for rhetorical purposes. Fallacies
are unreasonable because the reasons they provide for their claims are
irrelevant or insufficient. Ability to recognize the weakness of fallacies
is part of what we call argument literacy and imporatant in rational
thinking. Here we examine classic fallacies of types found in textbooks. In
an experiment, participants evaluated the quality of fallacies and
reasonable arguments. We instructed participants to think either
intuitively, using their first impressions, or analytically, using rational
deliberation. We analyzed responses, response times, and cursor trajectories
(captured using mouse tracking). The results indicate that instructions to
think analytically made people spend more time on the task but did not make
them change their minds more often. When participants made errors, they were
drawn towards the correct response, while responding correctly was more
straightforward. The results are compatible with “smart intuition” accounts
of dual-process theories of reasoning, rather than with corrective
default-interventionist accounts. The findings are discussed in relation to
whether theories developed to account for formal reasoning can help to
explain the processing of everyday arguments.
Pseudocontingencies: Flexible contingency inferences from base
rates
Authors: Vogel Tobias , Ingendahl Moritz , McCaughey Linda
Published: January 2023

Humans are evidently able to learn contingencies from the co-occurrence
of cues and outcomes. But how do humans judge contingencies when
observations of cue and outcome are learned on different occasions? The
pseudocontingency framework proposes that humans rely on base-rate
correlations across contexts, that is, whether outcome base rates increase
or decrease with cue base rates. Here, we elaborate on an alternative
mechanism for pseudocontingencies that exploits base rate information within
contexts. In two experiments, cue and outcome base rates varied across four
contexts, but the correlation by base rates was kept constant at zero. In
some contexts, cue and outcome base rates were aligned (e.g., cue and
outcome base rates were both high). In other contexts, cue and outcome base
rates were misaligned (e.g., cue base rate was high, but outcome base rate
was low). Judged contingencies were more positive for contexts in which cue
and outcome base rates were aligned than in contexts in which cue and
outcome base rates were misaligned. Our findings indicate that people use
the alignment of base rates to infer contingencies conditional on the
context. As such, they lend support to the pseudocontingency framework,
which predicts that decision makers rely on base rates to approximate
contingencies. However, they challenge previous conceptions of
pseudocontingencies as a uniform inference from correlated base rates.
Instead, they suggest that people possess a repertoire of multiple
contingency inferences that differ with regard to informational requirements
and areas of applicability.
The boundary effect: Perceived post hoc accuracy of prediction intervals
Authors: Teigen Karl Halvor , Løhre Erik , Hohle Sigrid Møyner
Published: January 2023

Predictions of magnitudes (costs, durations, environmental events) are often given as uncertainty intervals (ranges). When are such forecasts judged to be correct? We report results of four experiments showing that forecasted ranges of expected natural events (floods and volcanic eruptions) are perceived as accurate when an observed magnitude falls inside or at the boundary of the range, with little regard to its position relative to the “most likely” (central) estimate. All outcomes that fell inside a wide interval were perceived as equally well captured by the forecast, whereas identical outcomes falling outside a narrow range were deemed to be incorrectly predicted, in proportion to the magnitude of deviation. In these studies, ranges function as categories, with boundaries distinguishing between right or wrong predictions, even for outcome distributions that are acknowledged as continuous, and for boundaries that are arbitrarily defined (for instance, when the narrow prediction interval is defined as capturing 50 percent and the wide 90 percent of all potential outcomes). However, the boundary effect is affected by label. When the upper limit of a range is described as a value that “can” occur (Experiment 5), outcomes both below and beyond this value were regarded as consistent with the forecast.
Predicting elections: Experts, polls, and fundamentals
Authors: Graefe Andreas
Published: January 2023

This study analyzes the relative accuracy of experts, polls, and the so-called ‘fundamentals’ in predicting the popular vote in the four U.S. presidential elections from 2004 to 2016. Although the majority (62%) of 452 expert forecasts correctly predicted the directional error of polls, the typical expert’s vote share forecast was 7% (of the error) less accurate than a simple polling average from the same day. The results further suggest that experts follow the polls and do not sufficiently harness information incorporated in the fundamentals. Combining expert forecasts and polls with a fundamentals-based reference class forecast reduced the error of experts and polls by 24% and 19%, respectively. The findings demonstrate the benefits of combining forecasts and the effectiveness of taking the outside view for debiasing expert judgment.
Loss aversion (simply) does not materialize for smaller losses
Authors: Zeif Dana , Yechiam Eldad
Published: January 2023

Loss aversion, the argument that losses are given more weight than gains, has been recently shown to be absent in small losses. However, a series of studies by Mrkva et al. (2020) appear to demonstrate the existence of loss aversion even for smaller losses. We re-ran Mrkva et al.’s decision tasks after removing features of the task that differentiated losses from the gains, particularly asymmetries in sizes of gains and losses, an increasing order of losses, and status quo effects. The results show that we replicate Mrkva et al.’s (2020) findings in their original paradigm with online participants, yet in five studies where gains and losses were symmetrically presented in random order (n = 2,001), we find no loss aversion for small amounts, with loss aversion surfacing very weakly only for average losses of $40 (mean λ = 1.16). We do find loss aversion for higher amounts such as $100 (mean λ = 1.54) though it is not as extreme as previously reported. Furthermore, we find weak correlation between the endowment effect and loss aversion, with the former effect existing simultaneously with no loss aversion. Thus, when items are presented symmetrically, significant loss aversion emerges only for large losses, suggesting that it cannot be argued that (all) “losses loom larger than gains.”
When and why people perform mindless math
Authors: Lawson M. Asher , Larrick Richard P. , Soll Jack B.
Published: January 2023

In this paper, we show that the presence of numbers in a problem tempts
people to perform mathematical operations even when the correct answer
requires no math, which we term “mindless math”. In three pre-registered
studies across two survey platforms (total N = 3,193), we investigate how
mindless math relates to perceived problem difficulty, problem
representation, and accuracy. In Study 1, we show that increasing the
numeric demands of problems leads to more mindless math (and fewer correct
answers). Study 2 shows that this effect is not caused by people being wary
of problems that seem too easy. In Study 3, we show that this effect is
robust over a wider range of numeric demands, and in the discussion we offer
two possible mechanisms that would explain this effect, and the caveat that
at even harder levels of numeric demands the effect may invert such that
much harder math increases accuracy relative
to moderately hard math.
Systematic review and meta-analysis of neonatal outcomes of COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy
Authors: Zhang Dingning , Huang Tingting , Chen Zhihui , Zhang Lulu , Gao Qi , Liu Ge , Zheng Jun , Ding Fangrui
Published: January 2023

Background

The safety of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines during pregnancy is a particular concern. Here, we addressed the neonatal outcomes after maternal vaccination of COVID-19 during pregnancy.

Methods

We systematically searched PubMed, EMBASE, and the WHO COVID-19 Database for studies on neonatal outcomes after maternal COVID-19 vaccination from inception to 3 July 2022. Main neonatal outcomes were related to preterm, small for gestation (SGA), NICU admission, low Apgar score at 5 min (<7), and additional neonatal outcomes such as gestation <34 weeks, low birth weight and some neonatal morbidity were all also analyzed.

Results

A total of 15 studies were included. We found that maternal vaccination during pregnancy was related to the reduction rates of Preterm, SGA, Low Apgar score at 5 min (<7). In addition, there was no evidence of a higher risk of adverse neonatal outcomes after maternal vaccination of COVID-19 during pregnancy, including NICU admission, preterm birth with gestation <34 weeks, low birth weight, very low birth weight, congenital anomalies, and so on.

Conclusions

COVID-19 vaccination in pregnant women does not raise significant adverse effects on neonatal outcomes and is related to a protective effect on some neonatal outcomes.

Impact

Present study has addressed the neonatal outcomes after maternal vaccination of COVID-19 during pregnancy.

COVID-19 vaccination in pregnant women does not raise significant adverse effects on neonatal outcomes and is related to a protective effect on some neonatal outcomes.

The present study could encourage pregnant women to be vaccinated against COVID-19.
Safety and immunogenicity of a mosaic vaccine booster against Omicron and other SARS-CoV-2 variants: a randomized phase 2 trial
Authors: Kaabi Nawal Al , Yang Yun Kai , Liang Yu , Xu Ke , Zhang Xue Feng , Kang Yun , Jin Yu Qin , Hou Jun Wei , Zhang Jing , Yang Tian , Hussein Salah , ElDein Mohamed Saif , Lei Ze Hua , Zhang Hao , Shao Shuai , Liu Zhao Ming , Liu Ning , Zheng Xiang , Su Ji Guo , Yang Sen Sen , Cong Xiangfeng , Tan Yao , Lei Wenwen , Gao Xue Jun , Jiang Zhiwei , Wang Hui , Li Meng , Mekki Hanadi Mekki , Zaher Walid , Mahmoud Sally , Zhang Xue , Qu Chang , Liu Dan Ying , Zhang Jing , Yang Mengjie , Eltantawy Islam , Xiao Peng , Shen Fu Jie , Wu Jin Juan , Han Zi Bo , Du Li Fang , Tang Fang , Chen Shi , Ma Zhi Jing , Zheng Fan , Hou Ya Nan , Li Xin Yu , Li Xin , Wang Zhao Nian , Yin Jin Liang , Mao Xiao Yan , Zhang Jin , Qu Liang , Zhang Yun Tao , Yang Xiao Ming , Wu Guizhen , Li Qi Ming
Published: January 2023

An ongoing randomized, double-blind, controlled phase 2 trial was conducted to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of a mosaic-type recombinant vaccine candidate, named NVSI-06-09, as a booster dose in subjects aged 18 years and older from the United Arab Emirates (UAE), who had administered two or three doses of inactivated vaccine BBIBP-CorV at least 6 months prior to enrollment. The participants were randomly assigned with 1:1 to receive a booster dose of NVSI-06-09 or BBIBP-CorV. The primary outcomes were immunogenicity and safety against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron variant, and the exploratory outcome was cross-immunogenicity against other circulating strains. Between May 25 and 30, 2022, 516 adults received booster vaccination with 260 in NVSI-06-09 group and 256 in BBIBP-CorV group. Interim results showed a similar safety profile between two booster groups, with low incidence of adverse reactions of grade 1 or 2. For immunogenicity, by day 14 post-booster, the fold rises in neutralizing antibody geometric mean titers (GMTs) from baseline elicited by NVSI-06-09 were remarkably higher than those by BBIBP-CorV against the prototype strain (19.67 vs 4.47-fold), Omicron BA.1.1 (42.35 vs 3.78-fold), BA.2 (25.09 vs 2.91-fold), BA.4 (22.42 vs 2.69-fold), and BA.5 variants (27.06 vs 4.73-fold). Similarly, the neutralizing GMTs boosted by NVSI-06-09 against Beta and Delta variants were also 6.60-fold and 7.17-fold higher than those by BBIBP-CorV. Our findings indicated that a booster dose of NVSI-06-09 was well-tolerated and elicited broad-spectrum neutralizing responses against divergent SARS-CoV-2 variants, including Omicron and its sub-lineages.
Transcript shortening via alternative polyadenylation promotes gene expression during fracture healing
Authors: Khajuria Deepak Kumar , Nowak Irena , Leung Ming , Karuppagounder Vengadeshprabhu , Imamura Yuka , Norbury Christopher C. , Kamal Fadia , Elbarbary Reyad A.
Published: January 2023

Maturation of the 3′ end of almost all eukaryotic messenger RNAs (mRNAs) requires cleavage and polyadenylation. Most mammalian mRNAs are polyadenylated at different sites within the last exon, generating alternative polyadenylation (APA) isoforms that have the same coding region but distinct 3′ untranslated regions (UTRs). The 3′UTR contains motifs that regulate mRNA metabolism; thus, changing the 3′UTR length via APA can significantly affect gene expression. Endochondral ossification is a central process in bone healing, but the impact of APA on gene expression during this process is unknown. Here, we report the widespread occurrence of APA, which impacts multiple pathways that are known to participate in bone healing. Importantly, the progression of endochondral ossification involves global 3′UTR shortening, which is coupled with an increased abundance of shortened transcripts relative to other transcripts; these results highlight the role of APA in promoting gene expression during endochondral bone formation. Our mechanistic studies of transcripts that undergo APA in the fracture callus revealed an intricate regulatory network in which APA enhances the expression of the collagen, type I, alpha 1 (Col1a1) and Col1a2 genes, which encode the 2 subunits of the abundantly expressed protein collagen 1. APA exerts this effect by shortening the 3′UTRs of the Col1a1 and Col1a2 mRNAs, thus removing the binding sites of miR-29a-3p, which would otherwise strongly promote the degradation of both transcripts. Taken together, our study is the first to characterize the crucial roles of APA in regulating the 3′UTR landscape and modulating gene expression during fracture healing.
Bicontinuous oxide heteroepitaxy with enhanced photoconductivity
Authors: Shao Pao-Wen , Wu Yi-Xian , Chen Wei-Han , Zhang Mojue , Dai Minyi , Kuo Yen-Chien , Hsieh Shang-Hsien , Tang Yi-Cheng , Liu Po-Liang , Yu Pu , Chen Yuang , Huang Rong , Chen Chia-Hao , Hsu Ju-Hung , Chen Yi-Chun , Hu Jia-Mian , Chu Ying-Hao
Published: January 2023

Self-assembled systems have recently attracted extensive attention because they can display a wide range of phase morphologies in nanocomposites, providing a new arena to explore novel phenomena. Among these morphologies, a bicontinuous structure is highly desirable based on its high interface-to-volume ratio and 3D interconnectivity. A bicontinuous nickel oxide (NiO) and tin dioxide (SnO2) heteroepitaxial nanocomposite is revealed here. By controlling their concentration, we fabricated tuneable self-assembled nanostructures from pillars to bicontinuous structures, as evidenced by TEM-energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy with a tortuous compositional distribution. The experimentally observed growth modes are consistent with predictions by first-principles calculations. Phase-field simulations are performed to understand 3D microstructure formation and extract key thermodynamic parameters for predicting microstructure morphologies in SnO2:NiO nanocomposites of other concentrations. Furthermore, we demonstrate significantly enhanced photovoltaic properties in a bicontinuous SnO2:NiO nanocomposite macroscopically and microscopically. This research shows a pathway to developing innovative solar cell and photodetector devices based on self-assembled oxides.