bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Application of the Hess-Brezowsky classification to the identification of weather patterns causing heavy winter rainfall in Brittany (France)
Authors: Planchon O. , Quénol H. , Dupont N. , Corgne S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. An accurate knowledge of the weather patterns causing winter rainfall over the Scorff watershed in western Brittany (W. France) was developed prior to studies of the impact of the climate factor on land use management, and of the hydrological reponses to rain-producing weather patterns. These two studies are carried out in the context of the climate change. The identification of rainy air-circulation types was realized using the objective computational version of the 29-type Hess and Brezowsky Grosswetterlagen system of classifying European synoptic regimes, for the cold season (November-March) of the 1958–2005 period at the reference weather station of Lorient, and 13 other stations located in western and southern Brittany, including a more detailed study for the wet 2000–2001 cold season for three reference stations of the Scorff watershed (Lorient, Plouay and Plouray). The precipitation proportion (including the days with rainfall ≥20 mm) was calculated by major air-circulation type (GWT: see Appendix A) and by individual air-circulation subtype (GWL: see Appendix A) for the studied time-period. The most frequently occurrence of rainy days associated with westerly and southerly GWL confirmed well-known observations in western Europe and so justify the use of the Hess-Brezowsky classification in other areas outside Central Europe. The southern or south-western exposure of the watershed with a hilly inland area enhanced the heavy rainfall generated by the SW and S circulation types, and increased the difference between the rainfall amounts of coastal and inland stations during the wettest days.
Strain rate patterns from dense GPS networks
Authors: Hackl M. , Malservisi R. , Wdowinski S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The knowledge of the crustal strain rate tensor provides a description of geodynamic processes such as fault strain accumulation, which is an important parameter for seismic hazard assessment, as well as anthropogenic deformation. In the past two decades, the number of observations and the accuracy of satellite based geodetic measurements like GPS greatly increased, providing measured values of displacements and velocities of points. Here we present a method to obtain the full continuous strain rate tensor from dense GPS networks. The tensorial analysis provides different aspects of deformation, such as the maximum shear strain rate, including its direction, and the dilatation strain rate. These parameters are suitable to characterize the mechanism of the current deformation. Using the velocity fields provided by SCEC and UNAVCO, we were able to localize major active faults in Southern California and to characterize them in terms of faulting mechanism. We also show that the large seismic events that occurred recently in the study region highly contaminate the measured velocity field that appears to be strongly affected by transient postseismic deformation. Finally, we applied this method to coseismic displacement data of two earthquakes in Iceland, showing that the strain fields derived by these data provide important information on the location and the focal mechanism of the ruptures.
Specific variations of the atmospheric electric field potential gradient as a possible precursor of Caucasus earthquakes
Authors: Kachakhidze N. , Kachakhidze M. , Kereselidze Z. , Ramishvili G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The subject of the research is the study of anomalous disturbances of the gradient of electric field potential of the atmosphere as possible precursors of earthquakes. In order to reveal such precursor Dusheti observatory (φ=42.05; λ=44.42) records of electric field potential's gradient (EFPG) of the atmosphere are considered for 41 earthquakes (M≥5.0) occurrence moments in the Caucasus region. Seasonal variations of atmospheric electric field potential gradient and inter overlapping influence of meteorological parameters upon this parameter are studied. Original method of "filtration" is devised and used in order to identify the effect of EFPG "clear" anomalies. The so-called "clear" anomalies are revealed from (−148.9 V/m) to 188.5 V/m limits and they are connected with occurrence moments of 29 earthquakes out of 41 discussed earthquakes (about 71%). "clear" anomalies manifest themselves in 11-day precursor window. Duration of anomalies is from 40 to 90 min.
Design of a Sea-level Tsunami Detection Network for the Gulf of Cadiz
Authors: Omira R. , Baptista M. A. , Matias L. , Miranda J. M. , Catita C. , Carrilho F. , Toto E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The devastating impact of the Sumatra tsunami of 26 December 2004, raised the question for scientists of how to forecast a tsunami threat. In 2005, the IOC-UNESCO XXIII assembly decided to implement a global tsunami warning system to cover the regions that were not yet protected, namely the Indian Ocean, the Caribbean and the North East Atlantic, the Mediterranean and connected seas (the NEAM region). Within NEAM, the Gulf of Cadiz is the more sensitive area, with an important record of devastating historical events. The objective of this paper is to present a preliminary design for a reliable tsunami detection network for the Gulf of Cadiz, based on a network of sea-level observatories. The tsunamigenic potential of this region has been revised in order to define the active tectonic structures. Tsunami hydrodynamic modeling and GIS technology have been used to identify the appropriate locations for the minimum number of sea-level stations. Results show that 3 tsunameters are required as the minimum number of stations necessary to assure an acceptable protection to the large coastal population in the Gulf of Cadiz. In addition, 29 tide gauge stations could be necessary to fully assess the effects of a tsunami along the affected coasts of Portugal, Spain and Morocco.
Development of dike fragility curves for piping and micro-instability breach mechanisms
Authors: Vorogushyn S. , Merz B. , Apel H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The paper analyses the prevailing breach mechanisms of fluvial dikes. Piping in the dike foundation and slope failure as a consequence of seepage flow through a dike core (micro-instability) were identified as two of the dominant breach mechanisms for historically-grown dikes along with overtopping and slope macro-instability. For the former two mechanisms the physically-based and empirical process descriptions were reviewed and led to the formulation of the reliability functions. Evaluation of these functions in the Monte Carlo framework for the time dependent load led to the development of fragility functions. These functions indicate the probability of failure of a dike section upon loading and can be computed for each spatially discretised dike section. The probability of breaching is conditioned by the uncertainty in geometrical and geotechnical dike parameters. This uncertainty is explicitly taken into account during computation of the fragility functions in a Monte Carlo simulation. Sensitivity analysis was carried out in order to identify the sensitive geotechnical parameters influencing the distribution of failure probability. The identification of sensitive parameters indicates the priorities in geotechnical measurement campaigns aimed at the assessment of dike stability. The newly developed fragility functions can be applied in flood hazard and risk assessment studies for modelling of dike failures in a probabilistic framework.
A nonlinear model coupling rockfall and rainfall intensity based on a four year measurement in a high Alpine rock wall (Reintal, German Alps)
Authors: Krautblatter M. , Moser M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A total of more than 140 000 kg of small-magnitude rockfall deposits was measured in eight rockfall collectors of altogether 940 m2 in size between 1999–2003 below a 400–600 m high rock face in the Reintal, German Alps. Measurements were conducted with a temporal resolution up to single days to attribute rockfall intensity to observed triggering events. Precipitation was assessed by a rain gauge and high-resolution precipitation radar. Intense rainstorms triggered previously unreported rockfall intensities of up to 300 000 g/(m2h) that we term "secondary rockfall event." In comparison to dry periods without frost (10−2g/(m2h)), rockfall deposition increased by 2–218 times during wet freeze-thaw cycles and by 56-thousand to 40-million times during secondary rockfall events. We obtained three nonlinear logistic growth models that relate rockfall intensity [g/(m2h)] to rainfall intensity [mm/h]. The models account for different rock wall intermediate storage volumes, triggering thresholds and storage depletion. They apply to all rockfall collector positions with correlations from R2=0.89 to 0.99. Thus, the timing of more than 90% of the encountered rockfall is explained by the triggering factor rainfall intensity. A combination of rockfall response models with radar-supported storm cell forecast could be used to anticipate hazardous rockfall events, and help to reduce the exposure of individuals and mobile structures (e.g. cable cars) to the hazard. According to meteorological recordings, the frequency of these intense rockfall events is likely to increase in response to global warming.
Seismic hazard assessment – a holistic microzonation approach
Authors: Nath S. K. , Thingbaijam K. K. S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The probable mitigation and management issues of seismic hazard necessitate seismic microzonation for hazard and risk assessment at the local level. Such studies are preceded with those at a regional level. A comprehensive framework, therefore, encompasses several phases from information compilations and data recording to analyses and interpretations. The state-of-the-art methodologies involve multi-disciplinary approaches namely geological, seismological, and geotechnical methods delivering multiple perspectives on the prevailing hazard in terms of geology and geomorphology, strong ground motion, site amplification, site classifications, soil liquefaction potential, landslide susceptibility, and predominant frequency. The composite hazard is assessed accounting for all the potential hazard attributing features with relative rankings in a logic tree, fuzzy set or hierarchical concept.
Improving risk assessment by defining consistent and reliable system scenarios
Authors: Mazzorana B. , Hübl J. , Fuchs S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. During the entire procedure of risk assessment for hydrologic hazards, the selection of consistent and reliable scenarios, constructed in a strictly systematic way, is fundamental for the quality and reproducibility of the results. However, subjective assumptions on relevant impact variables such as sediment transport intensity on the system loading side and weak point response mechanisms repeatedly cause biases in the results, and consequently affect transparency and required quality standards. Furthermore, the system response of mitigation measures to extreme event loadings represents another key variable in hazard assessment, as well as the integral risk management including intervention planning. Formative Scenario Analysis, as a supplement to conventional risk assessment methods, is a technique to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a specific case and the potential system behaviour. By two case studies, carried out (1) to analyse sediment transport dynamics in a torrent section equipped with control measures, and (2) to identify hazards induced by woody debris transport at hydraulic weak points, the applicability of the Formative Scenario Analysis technique is presented. It is argued that during scenario planning in general and with respect to integral risk management in particular, Formative Scenario Analysis allows for the development of reliable and reproducible scenarios in order to design more specifically an application framework for the sustainable assessment of natural hazards impact. The overall aim is to optimise the hazard mapping and zoning procedure by methodologically integrating quantitative and qualitative knowledge.
Karstic aquifer vulnerability assessment methods and results at a test site (Apulia, southern Italy)
Authors: Polemio M. , Casarano D. , Limoni P. P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Karstic aquifers are well known for their vulnerability to groundwater contamination. This is due to characteristics such as thin soils and point recharge in dolines, shafts, and swallow holes. In karstic areas, groundwater is often the only freshwater source. This is the case of the Apulia region (south-eastern Italy), where a large and deep carbonate aquifer, affected by karstic and fracturing phenomena, is located. Several methods (GOD, DRASTIC, SINTACS, EPIK, PI, and COP) for the assessment of the intrinsic vulnerability (Iv) were selected and applied to an Apulian test site, for which a complete data set was set up. The intrinsic vulnerability maps, produced using a GIS approach, show vulnerability from low to very high. The maximum vulnerability is always due to karstic features. A comparison approach of the maps is proposed. The advantages and disadvantages of each method are discussed. In general terms, three groups can be distinguished. The GOD method is useful for mapping large areas with high vulnerability contrasts. DRASTIC and SINTACS are "any-type aquifer" methods that have some limitations in applications to karstic aquifers, especially in the case of DRASTIC. EPIK, PI, and COP, which were designed to be applied to carbonate or karstic aquifers, supply affordable results, highly coherent with karstic and hydrogeological features, and reliable procedures, especially in the case of PI and COP. The latter appears simpler to apply and more flexible in considering the role of climatic parameters. If Iv of each method is considered, the highest variability is observed in cells in the neighbourhood of karstic features. In these spatial domains, additional efforts to define more reliable and global methods are required.
Vulnerability assessment and protective effects of coastal vegetation during the 2004 Tsunami in Sri Lanka
Authors: Kaplan M. , Renaud F. G. , Lüchters G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The tsunami of December 2004 caused extensive human and economic losses along many parts of the Sri Lankan coastline. Thanks to extensive national and international solidarity and support in the aftermath of the event, most people managed to restore their livelihoods completely but some households did not manage to recover completely from the impacts of the event. The differential in recovery highlighted the various vulnerabilities and coping capacities of communities exposed to the tsunami. Understanding the elements causing different vulnerabilities is crucial to reducing the impact of future events, yet capturing them comprehensively at the local level is a complex task. This research was conducted in a tsunami-affected area in southwestern Sri Lanka to evaluate firstly the role of coastal vegetation in buffering communities against the tsunami and secondly to capture the elements of vulnerability of affected communities. The area was chosen because of its complex landscape, including the presence of an inlet connecting the Maduganga estuary with the sea, and because of the presence of remaining patches of coastal vegetation. The vulnerability assessment was based on a comprehensive vulnerability framework and on the Sustainable Livelihoods Framework in order to detect inherent vulnerabilities of different livelihood groups. Our study resulted in the identification of fishery and labour-led households as the most vulnerable groups. Unsurprisingly, analyses showed that damages to houses and assets decreased quickly with increasing distance from the sea. It could also be shown that the Maduganga inlet channelled the energy of the waves, so that severe damages were observed at relatively large distances from the sea. Some reports after the tsunami stated that mangroves and other coastal vegetation protected the people living behind them. Detailed mapping of the coastal vegetation in the study area and subsequent linear regression revealed significant differences between three vegetation classes present in the area with regard to water level and damages to houses. As our region showed homogeneity in some important factors such as coastal topography, our results should only be generalised to comparable regions.
On the influence of temporal change on the validity of landslide susceptibility maps
Authors: Meusburger K. , Alewell C.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The consideration of non-stationary landslide causal factors in statistical landslide susceptibility assessments is still problematic. The latter may lead to erroneous model predictions, especially in times of dramatic environmental change. In this case study in the Central Swiss Alps, we aim to evaluate the effect of dynamic change of landslide causal factors on the validity of landslide susceptibility maps. Logistic regression models were produced for two points in time, 1959 and 2000. Both models could correctly classify >70% of the independent spatial validation dataset. By subtracting the 1959 susceptibility map from the 2000 susceptibility map a deviation susceptibility map was obtained. Our interpretation was that these susceptibility deviations indicate the effect of the change of dynamic causal factors on the landslide probability. The deviation map explained 85% of new landslides occurring after 2000. We believe it to be a suitable tool to add a time element to the susceptibility map pointing to areas with changing susceptibility due to recently changing environmental conditions.
"Last-Mile" preparation for a potential disaster – Interdisciplinary approach towards tsunami early warning and an evacuation information system for the coastal city of Padang, Indonesia
Authors: Taubenböck H. , Goseberg N. , Setiadi N. , Lämmel G. , Moder F. , Oczipka M. , Klüpfel H. , Wahl R. , Schlurmann T. , Strunz G. , Birkmann J. , Nagel K. , Siegert F. , Lehmann F. , Dech S. , Gress A. , Klein R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Extreme natural events, like e.g. tsunamis or earthquakes, regularly lead to catastrophes with dramatic consequences. In recent years natural disasters caused hundreds of thousands of deaths, destruction of infrastructure, disruption of economic activity and loss of billions of dollars worth of property and thus revealed considerable deficits hindering their effective management: Needs for stakeholders, decision-makers as well as for persons concerned include systematic risk identification and evaluation, a way to assess countermeasures, awareness raising and decision support systems to be employed before, during and after crisis situations. The overall goal of this study focuses on interdisciplinary integration of various scientific disciplines to contribute to a tsunami early warning information system. In comparison to most studies our focus is on high-end geometric and thematic analysis to meet the requirements of small-scale, heterogeneous and complex coastal urban systems. Data, methods and results from engineering, remote sensing and social sciences are interlinked and provide comprehensive information for disaster risk assessment, management and reduction. In detail, we combine inundation modeling, urban morphology analysis, population assessment, socio-economic analysis of the population and evacuation modeling. The interdisciplinary results eventually lead to recommendations for mitigation strategies in the fields of spatial planning or coping capacity.
A revised (PTVA) model for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami damage
Authors: Dall'Osso F. , Gonella M. , Gabbianelli G. , Withycombe G. , Dominey-Howes D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The Papathoma Tsunami Vulnerability Assessment (PTVA) Model (Papathoma, 2003) was developed in the absence of robust, well-constructed and validated building fragility models for assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami. It has proven to be a useful tool for providing assessments of building vulnerability. We present an enhanced version (PTVA-3) of the model that takes account of new understanding of the factors that influence building vulnerability and significantly, introduce the use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) for weighting the various attributes in order to limit concerns about subjective ranking of attributes in the original model. We successfully test PTVA-3 using building data from Maroubra, Sydney, Australia.
Magnetic anomalies possibly linked to local low seismicity
Authors: Masci F. , Palangio P. , Di Persio M.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. During the last twenty years a time-synchronized network of magnetometers has operated in Central Italy along the Apennine chain to monitor the magnetic field anomalies eventually related to the tectonic activity. At present time the network consists of five stations. In the past only few anomalies in the local geomagnetic field, possibly associated to earthquakes, has been observed, not least because the network area has shown a low-moderate seismic activity with the epicentres of the few events with Ml≥5 located away from the network station. During 2007 two Ml≈4 earthquakes occurred in proximity of two stations of the network. Here we report the magnetic anomalies in the geomagnetic field that could be related with these tectonic events. To better investigate these two events a study of ULF (ultra-low-frequency) emissions has been carried out on the geomagnetic field components H, D, and Z measured in L'Aquila Observatory during the period from January 2006 to December 2008. We want to stress that this paper refers to the period before the 2009 L'Aquila seismic sequence which main shock (Ml=5.8) of 6 April heavily damaged the medieval centre of the city and surroundings. At present time the analysis of the 2009 data is in progress.
Mapping and monitoring geomorphological processes in mountainous areas using PSI data: Central Pyrenees case study
Authors: Herrera G. , Davalillo J. C. , Mulas J. , Cooksley G. , Monserrat O. , Pancioli V.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In this paper the Stable Point Network technique, an established Persistent Scatterer InSAR (PSI) technique, (SPN), has been applied for the first time to the analysis of several geomorphological processes present in the Gállego river basin (Central Pyrenees, Spain). The SPN coherence based approach has been used to process three different SAR images datasets covering two temporal periods: 1995 to 2001 and 2001 to 2007. This approach has permitted the detection of more than 40 000 natural ground targets or Persistent Scatterers (PSs) in the study area, characterised by the presence of vegetation and a low urban density. Derived displacement maps have permitted the detection and monitoring of deformations in landslides, alluvial fans and erosive areas. In the first section, the study area is introduced. Then the specifics of the SPN processing are presented. The deformation results estimated with the SPN technique for the different processed datasets are compared and analysed with previous available geo-information. Then several detailed studies are presented to illustrate the processes detected by the satellite based analysis. In addition, a comparison between the performance of ERS and ENVISAT satellites with terrestrial SAR has demonstrates that these are complementary techniques, which can be integrated in order to monitor deformation processes, like landslides, that over the same monitoring area may show very different ranges of movement. The most relevant conclusions of this work are finally discussed.
Reconstructing snow avalanches in the Southeastern Pyrenees
Authors: Muntán E. , García C. , Oller P. , Martí G. , García A. , Gutiérrez E.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A regional study of snow avalanche processes was undertaken in the SE Pyrenees. Dendrogeomorphology was used to date and reconstruct large-scale snow avalanche events that occurred in the last four decades. Dendrochronological analyses yielded the dates of nine winters when avalanches occurred in the recent past in six studied avalanche paths. Some of these avalanches were already known, but others had not been documented. In one case, the existing avalanche path map was improved with the dendrogeomorphological information of a larger past event. As a result of the dendrogeomorphological analyses, evidence for three regional-scale major avalanche years was identified in the SE Pyrenees from 1971 to 2004: 1971–1972, 1995–1996 and 2002–2003. The specific synoptic atmospheric situations and the most likely nivometeorological and snowpack conditions that released these major avalanches were determined using weather data for the seasons of major avalanche releases. In 1971–1972 the snow avalanche episode was characterized by a deep trough crossing the Pyrenees. In 1995–1996 a variety of meteorological situations produced several episodes of major avalanches. In 2002–2003 the more significant of two episodes was attributed to a north advection pumping an arctic air mass over the Pyrenees. The 1995–1996 avalanche season proved to be the most notable in the four past decades in the Pyrenees.
Land-atmosphere interactions in an high resolution atmospheric simulation coupled with a surface data assimilation scheme
Authors: Campo L. , Castelli F. , Entekhabi D. , Caparrini F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. A valid tool for the retrieving of the turbulent fluxes that characterize the surface energy budget is constituted by the remote sensing of land surface states. In this study sequences of satellite-derived observations (from SEVIRI sensors aboard the Meteosat Second Generation) of Land Surface Temperature have been used as input in a data assimilation scheme in order to retrieve parameters that describe energy balance at the ground surface in the Tuscany region, in central Italy, during summer 2005. A parsimonious 1-D multiscale variational assimilation procedure has been followed, that requires also near surface meteorological observations. A simplified model of the surface energy balance that includes such assimilation scheme has been coupled with the limited area atmospheric model RAMS, in order to improve in the latter the accuracy of the energy budget at the surface. The coupling has been realized replacing the assimilation scheme products, in terms of surface turbulent fluxes and temperature and humidity states during the meteorological simulation. Comparisons between meteorological model results with and without coupling with the assimilation scheme are discussed, both in terms of reconstruction of surface variables and of vertical characterization of the lower atmosphere. In particular, the effects of the coupling on the moisture feedback between surface and atmosphere are considered and estimates of the precipitation recycling ratio are provided. The results of the coupling experiment showed improvements in the reconstruction of the surface states by the atmospheric model and considerable influence on the atmospheric dynamics.
Micro-seismic precursory cracks prior to rock-fall on coastal chalk cliffs: a case study at Mesnil-Val, Normandie, NW France
Authors: Senfaute G. , Duperret A. , Lawrence J. A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Erosion of rock cliffs has been considered to be relatively unpredictable. This perceived stochastic nature of the erosional processes often occurs through collapses along fractures in the rock-mass. The prediction of catastrophic cliff failures and collapses remains very difficult. For advancing in this field, it is important to understand the processes through which a crack is initiated, how it develops and propagates until the final failure. This paper examines the micro-seismic signals recorded 15 h prior to a rock-fall located at Mesnil-Val, France. The results lead to the hypothesis that several phases of failure mechanisms contribute to rock-fall occurrence. The most important phases were associated with micro-seismic event families identified by multiplet selection. Each event family contained one specific frequency spectrum showing a progressive decrease of the frequencies as the rock approached failure suggesting the following phases: 1) the micro-seismic events recorded 15 h before the rock-fall were characterised by the highest frequencies in a large spectrum-band, between ~100 and 1000 Hz (family 1), suggesting a crack initiation mechanism or the opening of existing fractures; 2) the micro-seismic events recorded several minutes before the rock-fall were associated with a clear decrease in the highest frequency components (family 2) suggesting that the mechanism was related to the growing and development (or coalesce) of existing micro-cracks into larger fractures; 3) micro-seismic events recorded just before the rock-fall were associated with a lower frequency spectrum than families 1 and 2, the highest frequency components were absent (family 3), the frequency emission source mechanism could be related to the shearing or opening of the existing large fractures permitting the complete detachment of the blocky rock-mass; 4) finally, micro-seismic events with a very low frequency spectrum (lower than 100 Hz) characterized the rock-fall impact on the ground. These encouraging results offer the possibility of using the micro-seismic system to monitor high risk sections of coastline and to advance understanding of cliff failure mechanisms.
Dealing with uncertainty: an analysis of the severe weather events over Italy in 2006
Authors: Molini L. , Parodi A. , Siccardi F.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Forecast verification is a long-standing issue of the whole meteorologists' community. A common definition of a truly satisfying prediction skill has not been achieved so far. Even the definition of "event", due to its spatio-temporal discontinuity, is highly affected by uncertainty. Moreover, decision-making demands numerical weather prediction modellers to provide information about the "inner" uncertainty, i.e. the degree of uncertainty related to the choice of a specific setting of the model (microphysics, turbulence scheme, convective closure, etc.). Most European Mediterranean countries, due to dense development, steep coastal orography and short hydrological response time of the drainage basins, have to deal very frequently with flash floods and sudden shallow land sliding impacting on urban areas. Civil protection organizations are in place to issue early warnings in order to allow local authorities and population to take precautionary measures. To do so in Mediterranean catchments, hydrologists are required to use numerical rainfall predictions in place of rainfall observations on large European catchments. Estimating the measure of uncertainty is for this reason crucial. The goal of this work is to propose an objective evaluation of the performance of the currently operational weather prediction model COSMO-I7 over quite a long time period and to check forecast verification at different space-time scales by the comparison of predictions with observations. Due to large investments in the last years, in fact, Italy has built up one of the most dense hourly-reporting network of rain gauges. The network has a mean space density of about 1/100 km2, very similar to the horizontal resolution of currently operating limited area models. An objective procedure to identify and compare the extreme events of precipitation has been applied to the full set of rainfall observations and over the severe events forecast by COSMO-I7 and announced in official warnings by Italian Civil Protection Department. The procedure allows to classify rainfall events as long-lived and spatially distributed or as having a shorter duration and a minor spatial extent. We show that long-lived events are less affected by overall uncertainty than short-lived ones, yet the inner uncertainty of the event affects both.
The interaction of northern wind flow with the complex topography of Crete Island – Part 1: Observational study
Authors: Koletsis I. , Lagouvardos K. , Kotroni V. , Bartzokas A.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The island of Crete with its mountain ranges is an excellent example of a major isolated topographic feature, which significantly modifies the regional airflow as well as the pressure and temperature fields. During summer, when northerly winds are blowing over the Aegean Sea (a large number of which are characterized as Etesians), the highly complex topography of Crete plays an important role in the modification of this northern wind flow. The main objective of this study is to determine the role of the topography of Crete Island during this wind flow on the strong downslope winds at the southern parts of the island as well as on the development of a gap flow between the two highest mountains of the island (Lefka Ori and Idi). For that purpose, observational data from four meteorological stations located along the aforementioned gap are used along with QuikSCAT satellite data. The observational analysis shows that the interaction of the northern wind flow with the mountains of Crete Island produces an upstream deceleration, a leftward deflection of the air as this approaches the mountains and an intensification of the winds at the southern coasts accompanied with a temperature increase. Furthermore, the maximum of the gap flow is observed at the exit region of the gap.
Feasibility of Tsunami Early Warning Systems for small volcanic islands
Authors: Bellotti G. , Di Risio M. , De Girolamo P.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. This paper investigates the feasibility of Tsunami Early Warning Systems for small volcanic islands focusing on warning of waves generated by landslides at the coast of the island itself. The critical concern is if there is enough time to spread the alarm once the system has recognized that a tsunami has been generated. We use the results of a large scale physical model experiment in order to estimate the time that tsunamis take to travel around the island inundating the coast. We discuss how and where it is convenient to place instruments for the measurement of the waves.
Taking the heterogeneity of citizens into account: flood risk communication in coastal cities – a case study of Bremen
Authors: Martens T. , Garrelts H. , Grunenberg H. , Lange H.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The likely manifestations of climate change like flood hazards are prominent topics in public communication. This can be shown by media analysis and questionnaire data. However, in the case of flood risks an information gap remains resulting in misinformed citizens who probably will not perform the necessary protective actions when an emergency occurs. This paper examines more closely a newly developed approach to flood risk communication that takes the heterogeneity of citizens into account and aims to close this gap. The heterogeneity is analysed on the meso level regarding differences in residential situation as well as on the micro level with respect to risk perception and protective actions. Using the city of Bremen as a case study, empirical data from n=831 respondents were used to identify Action Types representing different states of readiness for protective actions in view of flood risks. These subpopulations can be provided with specific information to meet their heterogeneous needs for risk communication. A prototype of a computer-based information system is described that can produce and pass on such tailored information. However, such an approach to risk communication has to be complemented by meso level analysis which takes the social diversity of subpopulations into account. Social vulnerability is the crucial concept for understanding the distribution of resources and capacities among different social groups. We therefore recommend putting forums and organisations into place that can mediate between the state and its citizens.
Assessing the vulnerability of buildings to tsunami in Sydney
Authors: Dall'Osso F. , Gonella M. , Gabbianelli G. , Withycombe G. , Dominey-Howes D.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. Australia is vulnerable to the impacts of tsunamis and exposure along the SE coast of New South Wales is especially high. Significantly, this is the same area reported to have been affected by repeated large magnitude tsunamis during the Holocene. Efforts are under way to complete probabilistic risk assessments for the region but local government planners and emergency risk managers need information now about building vulnerability in order to develop appropriate risk management strategies. We use the newly revised PTVA-3 Model (Dall'Osso et al., 2009) to assess the relative vulnerability of buildings to damage from a "worst case tsunami" defined by our latest understanding of regional risk – something never before undertaken in Australia. We present selected results from an investigation of building vulnerability within the local government area of Manly – an iconic coastal area of Sydney. We show that a significant proportion of buildings (in particular, residential structures) are classified as having "High" and "Very High" Relative Vulnerability Index scores. Furthermore, other important buildings (e.g., schools, nursing homes and transport structures) are also vulnerable to damage. Our results have serious implications for immediate emergency risk management, longer-term land-use zoning and development, and building design and construction standards. Based on the work undertaken here, we recommend further detailed assessment of the vulnerability of coastal buildings in at risk areas, development of appropriate risk management strategies and a detailed program of community engagement to increase overall resilience.
Stabilisation of river dykes with drainage elements
Authors: Riegger T. , Bieberstein A. , Hörtkorn F. , Kempfert H.-G.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. In recent times, enormous damage has been caused by dyke failures during and after river flood disasters throughout the world. Besides extreme meteorological conditions the reasons for these failures are inadequate design and the actual condition of affected dyke structures. To minimize the occurrence of dyke failures in future, in a national BMBF research project (BMBF: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research) an alternative stabilisation technique has been investigated as an instrument for short term refurbishment and as an improvement to existing and endangered dyke structures. It is intended to improve the stability of dyke structures by the mechanical installation of drainage devices, thus preventing dyke failure by controlling the seepage in the structure. Within the scope of this paper selected results concerning stabilizing capability and feasibility of the stabilisation technique are presented in detail. Concerning feasibility the focus is placed on natural scale model tests to verify numerical calculations and to investigate the suitability of the adapted installation methods in situ.
A press database on natural risks and its application in the study of floods in Northeastern Spain
Authors: Llasat M. C. , Llasat-Botija M. , López L.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The aim of this work is to introduce a systematic press database on natural hazards and climate change in Catalonia (NE of Spain) and to analyze its potential application to social-impact studies. For this reason, a review of the concepts of risk, hazard, vulnerability and social perception is also included. This database has been built for the period 1982–2007 and contains all the news related with those issues published by the oldest still-active newspaper in Catalonia. Some parameters are registered for each article and for each event, including criteria that enable us to determine the importance accorded to it by the newspaper, and a compilation of information about it. This ACCESS data base allows each article to be classified on the basis of the seven defined topics and key words, as well as summary information about the format and structuring of the new itself, the social impact of the event and data about the magnitude or intensity of the event. The coverage given to this type of news has been assessed because of its influence on construction of the social perception of natural risk and climate change, and as a potential source of information about them. The treatment accorded by the press to different risks is also considered. More than 14 000 press articles have been classified. Results show that the largest number of news items for the period 1982–2007 relates to forest fires and droughts, followed by floods and heavy rainfalls, although floods are the major risk in the region of study. Two flood events recorded in 2002 have been analyzed in order to show an example of the role of the press information as indicator of risk perception.
Scaling behaviour in temporal fluctuations of crustal seismicity in Taiwan
Authors: Telesca L. , Chen C.-C. , Lee Y.-T.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The crustal seismicity of Taiwan was investigated by means of the Allan Factor analysis and Count-based Periodogram, which allow to identify scaling behaviour in point processes and to quantify their temporal fluctuations by means of the estimate of the scaling exponent. Our findings point out to the presence of two time-scaling regions in the crustal Taiwanese seismicity. The first region, involving the intermediate timescales can be probably linked with aftershock activity, while the second region, involving the large timescales could be related with the background seismicity.
Rockfall travel distance analysis by using empirical models (Solà d'Andorra la Vella, Central Pyrenees)
Authors: Copons R. , Vilaplana J. M. , Linares R.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The prediction of rockfall travel distance below a rock cliff is an indispensable activity in rockfall susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment. Although the size of the detached rock mass may differ considerably at each specific rock cliff, small rockfall (<100 m3) is the most frequent process. Empirical models may provide us with suitable information for predicting the travel distance of small rockfalls over an extensive area at a medium scale (1:100 000–1:25 000). "Solà d'Andorra la Vella" is a rocky slope located close to the town of Andorra la Vella, where the government has been documenting rockfalls since 1999. This documentation consists in mapping the release point and the individual fallen blocks immediately after the event. The documentation of historical rockfalls by morphological analysis, eye-witness accounts and historical images serve to increase available information. In total, data from twenty small rockfalls have been gathered which reveal an amount of a hundred individual fallen rock blocks. The data acquired has been used to check the reliability of the main empirical models widely adopted (reach and shadow angle models) and to analyse the influence of parameters which affecting the travel distance (rockfall size, height of fall along the rock cliff and volume of the individual fallen rock block). For predicting travel distances in maps with medium scales, a method has been proposed based on the "reach probability" concept. The accuracy of results has been tested from the line entailing the farthest fallen boulders which represents the maximum travel distance of past rockfalls. The paper concludes with a discussion of the application of both empirical models to other study areas.
Towards a definition of a real-time forecasting network for rainfall induced shallow landslides
Authors: Segoni S. , Leoni L. , Benedetti A. I. , Catani F. , Righini G. , Falorni G. , Gabellani S. , Rudari R. , Silvestro F. , Rebora N.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. PREVIEW is an European Commission FP6 Integrated Project with the aim of developing, at an European level, innovative geo-information services for atmospheric, geophysical and man-made risks. Within this framework, the Landslides Platform Service 2 (forecasting of shallow rapid slope movements) has developed an integrated procedure for the forecasting and warning of distributed shallow landsliding to be used for civil protection purposes. The Service consists of an automated end-to-end forecasting chain which uses data from a probabilistic downscaled short-term rainfall forecast, soil saturation estimates and meteorological radar outputs. The above data are entered into a hydro-geological model that makes use of an infinite slope approach to calculate the distributed Factor of Safety over the entire basin. All outputs, and much of the input data, are shown on a WebGIS system so that end-users can interactively access and download data. A distinctive feature of the service is the use of an innovative soil depth model for predicting the distributed thickness of the regolith cover within the basin, which is one of the most important parameters controlling shallow landslide triggering. The service was developed in a pilot test site in NE Italy, the Armea basin. Validation makes use of two rainfall events: one that occurred in 2000 and a smaller, more recent event (2006) that caused fewer landslides. Rainfall data have been used to compute a distributed factor-of-safety map that has been overlaid onto the landslide inventory. Instead of a traditional validation approach based on the number count of correctly identified landslides, we carried out an alternative procedure based on the landslides area that gave outcomes which, for this preliminary stage of the research, can be considered promising.
A mixture of exponentials distribution for a simple and precise assessment of the volcanic hazard
Authors: Mendoza-Rosas A. T. , De la Cruz-Reyna S.
Published: April 2010

Abstract. The assessment of volcanic hazard is the first step for disaster mitigation. The distribution of repose periods between eruptions provides important information about the probability of new eruptions occurring within given time intervals. The quality of the probability estimate, i.e., of the hazard assessment, depends on the capacity of the chosen statistical model to describe the actual distribution of the repose times. In this work, we use a mixture of exponentials distribution, namely the sum of exponential distributions characterized by the different eruption occurrence rates that may be recognized inspecting the cumulative number of eruptions with time in specific VEI (Volcanic Explosivity Index) categories. The most striking property of an exponential mixture density is that the shape of the density function is flexible in a way similar to the frequently used Weibull distribution, matching long-tailed distributions and allowing clustering and time dependence of the eruption sequence, with distribution parameters that can be readily obtained from the observed occurrence rates. Thus, the mixture of exponentials turns out to be more precise and much easier to apply than the Weibull distribution. We recommended the use of a mixture of exponentials distribution when regimes with well-defined eruption rates can be identified in the cumulative series of events. As an example, we apply the mixture of exponential distributions to the repose-time sequences between explosive eruptions of the Colima and Popocatépetl volcanoes, México, and compare the results obtained with the Weibull and other distributions.