bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A Contextual Approach to the Social Psychological Study of Disaster Recovery
Authors: Golec Judith A.
Published: January 2023

The breakdown model has led to an irresolveable theoretical ant empirical stalemate in the literature of community-wide disaster. This paper attempts to move beyond the present debate toward an empirically grounded reconceptualization. The case study employee for this purpose is the collapse of the Teton Dam which occurred in the United States in 1976. In-depth interviews and archival male-rials are used to reconstruct, from the perspective of disaster victims, the typical (successful) and the atypical (unsuccessful) recovery patterns of three years. Both patterns are explainable by reference to social processes, i.e., to collective arrangement; created for distributing human and material resources used for the rebuilding effort.

An inductively derived interpretive schema emphasizing the interconnecting linkages between disaster recovery, social resources and social relations is recommended. Three types of social relations—primary, institutional and ex-change—are identified as points of access into networks—primary, public welfare and private market—which control various types and amounts of needed resources. The organizational structure, the operational logic and the philosophy of relief associated with each network determines the distributional arrangements and consequently, the recovery patterns of disaster victims. Importantly, the distributive arrangement has a dual structure which reflects its local or extra-local pre-disastcr status.

The expected utility of this interpretive schema is two-fold. It provides a more adequate understanding of the recovery experience compared to the breakdown model and it redirects research attention to previously unexplored or underexplored areas.
Victimization by Natural Hazards in the United Status, 1970–1980: Survey Estimates
Authors: Rossi Peter H. , Wright James D. , Weber-Burdin Eleanor , Pereira Joseph
Published: January 2023

Estimates of average annual damages and personal injuries over the period 1970–1980 to households in the United States from each of five hazards—household fires, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes and earthuuakes–are derived from national sample surveys. The annual incidence rate for the four natural hazards combined is 18.7 per 1,000 households, or approximately 1.5 million household annually experiencing one or more incidents of floods, hurricanes, tornadoes or earthquakes. Average annual damages from the same hazards reported by the households amount to U.S. $6.1 billion (in 1980 dollars). Analyses of aid received in the forms of insurance payments, gifts, grants and loans show that floods present the most serious problems to households when experienced, not only causing more damage but also more likely not to be covered by insurance and more likely to lead the household into enlarging its debt burden. No substantively significant biases were found in the distribution aid to households afflicted by natural hazards.
Evacuation Behavior at Three Mile Island
Authors: Stallings Robert A.
Published: January 2023

Evacuation behavior associated with the accident at Three Mile Island is described based upon data from field surveys. The question addressed is whether this evacuation was unique or whether it conformed to the pattern normally found in natural disasters, Demographic and social aspects of the evacuation are compared with those in the disaster literature. The conclusion is that the voluntary evacuation at Three Mile Island did not differ significantly from those taking place in natural disasters. Therefore, no special plans, policies, or procedures seem needed over and above those in place for other kinds of disaster evacuations. But in emergencies that are unusual and infrequent, where public officials must rely exclusively on experts who themselves disagree, and where the incident is part of an existing public controversy, forced evacuation may be a difficult action to take. This should not prevent officials from taking steps to make voluntary evacuation available to all citizens who choose to take such protective actions.
The Protective Action Decision Model Applied to Evacuation During the Three Mile Island Crisis
Authors: Houts Peter S. , Lindell Michael K. , Hu Teh Wei , Cleary Paul D. , Tokuhata George , Flynn Cynthia B.
Published: January 2023

Interviews with 1505 persons living within 55 miles of the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant three months after the crisis were analyzed to test whether the protective action decision model could predict evacuation behavior during the crisis period. Results indicate that severity, susceptibility, barrier and cost variables were, as suggested by the model, related to evacuation behavior. In addition, several modifications to the model were suggested by the findings including a need to account for why conflicting information may increase evacuation in nuclear disasters while decreasing evacuation in nonnuclear disastsers.
The General Trend of Sociobehavioral Disaster Studies in Japan
Authors: Okabe Keizo , Hirose Hirotada
Published: January 2023

In this article we very briefly review the history of sociobehavioral disaster research in Japan which is mostly a poet 1970 undertaking. Examples of recent major studies are given. While the work has been relatively limited so far, the future appears promising.
Simulation Study of Confusion at Terminal Train Stations Caused by Earthquake Warnings
Authors: Yoshil Hiroaki
Published: January 2023

Three simulation models with different areas of application are developed in this report to predict the risk posed by the rapid return to their homes of people around terminal stations immediately after earthquake warnings issued in daytime. These are also useful tools to evaluate the effectiveness of measures to mitigate the risk. The applications of these models to several terminal stations and train lines with many passengers were carried out and the results indicate the following:

1. Around 30–40 percent of the people around terminal stations should walk home.

2. Those who intend to take trains should go to terminal stations three or four hours ahead of the time they might otherwise need.

3. Strong traffic control at passages and wicket gates should be undertaken by police officers and station staff as soon as possible.

4. It is very important to make an “earthquake diagram” and to keep it as available as possible.

5. Public officers involved in the planning for the prevention of disasters should build “information bases” at terminal stations to announce various types of information to waiting passengers after earthquake warnings have been issued.

6. Finally, public officers and managers of businesses around terminal stations should inform people for whom they are responsible, about the circumstances anticipated and the measures mentioned above.
The Community Recovery Process in the United States after a Major Natural Disaster
Authors: Rubin Claire B.
Published: January 2023

After studying first-hand how 14 U.S. communities recovered from a major natural disaster, an organizing framework recovery process was developed. That framework depicts the dynamic processes that contribute to an efficient local recovery, including the key elements of recovery and the relationships among those factors. The three key elements are personal leadership, ability to act, and knowledge of what to do.

Of paramount importance to an expeditious recovery is effective intergovernmental relations. In those communities where the speed and quality of recovery was greater, local officials had found ways to (a) ensure more productive intergovernmental relationships, (b) compete effectively for scarce resources, and (c) better manage community-level decisionmaking during the post-disaster period.
The Southern California Earthquake Preparedness Project: Evolution of an “Earthquake Entrepreneur”
Authors: Lambright W. Henry
Published: January 2023

A major problem for at governments in earthquake-prone countries is how to improve the process of preparedness. In the U.S., a relatively novel mechanism was created to accelerate the pace and intensity of preparedness, including prediction response. Known as the Southern California Earthquake Preparedness Project (SCEPP), the entity had federal and state mandates and funding. It was an extension of federal and state policy into local government and the private sector. Established in 1980 as a temporary, three-year organisation under one agency in California, it continues today with a five-county region of southern, California (including Los Angeles) that would be devastated by an expected great earthquake on the south-central San Andreas fault. Although it had a limited budget, small staff, and experienced delays and leadership crisis in its early life, SCEPP is widely regarded today as having made a contribution to earthquake preparedness and prediction response in southern California. This article reviews the evolution of SCEPP as an “earthquake entrepreneur” and draws lessons from its record of relevance to government and earthquake preparedness generally. SCEPP represents an organizational model that may be considered by other earthquake-threatened settings.
New Social Movements and Resource Mobilization: The European and the American Approach
Authors: Klaridermans Bert
Published: January 2023

In the past 20 years, student movements, environmental movements, women's movements and peace movements developed both in America and in Europe. These actions meant an explosive growth in the number of publications about social movements. Theory formation took a different course in Europe and in the U.S. While in the U.S. resource mobilization theory shifted attention from deprivation to the availability of resources in explanation of the rise of social movements, in Europe the “new social movement approach” emphasized the development of postindustrial society. Resource mobilisation and the new social movement approach are discussed. Both approaches are needed to arrive at a satisfactory explanation. The new social movement approach has concentrated on factors that determine mobilization potential, but does not give an answer to the question of how these potentials are mobilized, Resource mobilization theory does pay attention to the mobilization of resources, to the significance of recruitment networks, and to the costs and benefits of participation, but has no interest in the mobilization potentials from which a movement must draw in mobilization campaigns. Assumptions are formulated in explanation of the divergent development of the social movement literature on the two continents.
A Protocol for the Comparative Analysis of Sports Crowd Violence
Authors: Lewis Jerry M.
Published: January 2023

This paper develops a protocol for the comparative analysis of the violent sports crowds. It argues that the study of fan violence should be theoretically informed and methodologically grounded. It describes the primary and secondary sources that can be used in the study of sport fan violence particularly when the investigator is not present when the violence happens.

The paper begins with a review of Neil J. Smelser's model of collective behavior. It argues that the determinants of collective behavior proposed by Smelser are useful for analyzing fan violence.

It is suggested that scholars should approach fan violence with a triangulation strategy. Triangulation is developed using primary and secondary sources. The sources include site visits, personal interviews, newspaper stories, photographs, and police documents. Studies from the United States and England are used to illustrate the protocol.
The Media in Disaster Threat Situations: Some Possible Relationships between Mass Media Reporting and Voluntarism
Authors: Phillips Brenda D.
Published: January 2023

This research looks at possible relationships between mass media reporting and voluntarism in disaster-threat situations. The setting is a small mid-western city in the United States which was inundated by flood waters in March 1982. Data were collected through interviews with volunteers, organizational and public officials, and the media. Additionally, numerous documents pertaining to the media and volunteers are content analyzed. Observations made on-site supplement the interviews and documents.

The media are found to have some effect in accordance with the suggestions of dependency theory. The media are also found to have been one of several instigators of increased voluntarism. Conflict arising out of media depiction of the volunteer effort is discussed. Further research on media effects of voluntarism in disaster situations is suggested.
Warning Mechanisms in Emergency Response Systems
Authors: Lindell Michael K. , Perry Ronald W.
Published: January 2023

The principal alternative mechanisms are described that might be considered by local governments for achieving prompt notification of the public in a natural or technological emergency. These alternatives include face-to-face warnings, mobile loudspeakers, sirens, commercial radio and television, NOAA Weather Radio, newspapers and telephones. Each of the alternatives is evaluated on the basis of the number of people who can effectively be warned, specificity of the message that can be transmitted, degree of message distortion, coverage of the population at risk, dissemination time and cost. Data collected following the eruption of Mt. St. Helens are presented that illustrate how rapidly informal warning networks act to disseminate threat information in an emergency.
The Impact of Intergovernmental Distance on Disaster Communications
Authors: Toulmin Llewellyn M. , Givans Charles J. , Steel Deborah L.
Published: January 2023

Previous research into disaster communications, while fairly extensive, has been limited primarily to sociological analysis and organizational theory. This body of research, however, has not explored disaster communications in a federal, international or other multi-level governmental response system. This paper expands upon existing research to present a new theory of intergovernmental disaster communications.

The theory is based on the concept of intergovernmental distance, which refers to distance in terms of differing procedures and approaches used by organizations in different functional areas at various levels of government. The theory postulates that the organizational distance created by these differences becomes a critical factor that must be addressed during a disaster.

The study employs three sets of dimensions. The first is in two dimensions and examines distances between functional areas at various levels of government. The second is three dimensional and considers distances between functional area and central management. The third is multidimensional. Here a multiple regression equation is used to analyze intergovernmental distance.

The study concludes by addressing the policy implications of the findings, especially the need to overcome inherent intergovernmental distance through disaster planning, the need to recognize the exponential increase in communications problems caused by increases in the number of disaster responders, and the need to determine if the marginal benefits contributed by each new responder exceed the marginal communications and coordination costs each responder imposes.
Improving Medical Preparedness for Chemical Accidents: An Inter-Organizational Resource Review
Authors: Landesman Linda Young
Published: January 2023

While emergency planning to cope with chemical accidents has accelerated since Bhopal, there is evidence that the medical sector is not preparing at the same pace as the broader emergency response community. This paper presents a rationale for improving medical sector preparedness. In order to integrate the medical community more fully into emergency management planning and coordination, a common base of resources is presented. It is suggested that cooperative planning could emerge if both the broader emergency response community and specialized medical sectors had a common understanding of how one assesses community risk and the resources available to improve preparedness. A compendium of documents, legal mandates and response models is presented.
The State of Seismic Mitigation Management in U.S. Pacific Basin Seaports and Harbors
Authors: Siegel Gilbert B.
Published: January 2023

Analysis of three sources of information (a survey of seaport officials, an analysis of expert opinion, and a case study) on seismic mitigation management in U.S. Pacific Basin seaports revealed the following seven general conclusions. There is little evidence of risk analysis having been conducted for ports. There is need for extensive evaluation of sites and mitigation technology. Older ports and facilities are most vulnerable to seismic events and, for the most part, have not been retrofitted to present day standards. Some form of geotechnical studies usually precede construction of newer facilities. Virtually all examples of technological innovations encountered were for new facilities. Local government building codes are relied upon as the primary source of seismic standards. The latter do not provide standards for many requirements of seaports. Risk avoidance through insurance is not extensively practiced by ports. There is need for public policy: to create incentives for evaluation and mitigation of hazards in vulnerable areas; to develop uniform guidelines for minimum mitigation criteria; to clarify legal responsibility and liability for damage; to establish enforcement agencies for seismic safety; and to promulgate conditions governing intergovernmental transfers of funds for mitigation, recovery, etc.
Behavior During Earthquakes: A Southern Italian Example
Authors: Alexander David
Published: January 2023

This article concerns mass reaction to a violent earthquake in the eastern part of Naples Province, southern Italy. Patterns of perception and mass behavior are reconstructed from the testimonies of a group of local high school students and from the author's personal experience of the event. This information shows that the perception, and therefore the reaction, of people differed according to age group, older people being by virtue of experience the first to realize that an earthquake was happening. Flight behavior was the prevalent first reaction to the tremors, and fear of being indoors rapidly developed. During the early stages of the emergency panic, defined as nonrational imperative behavior, was common and people were injured as a result. Family ties, however, remained an important influence upon behavior, although they did not impede flight.

The findings of this study generally confirm previous literature on mass reactions to earthquake events, except that anxiety, panic and flight appear to have been more widespread, and preparedness less common, than in many other cases that sociologists have studied.
Ignorance and Disasters
Authors: Smithson Michael
Published: January 2023

While ignorance has long troubled efforts to prevent, prepare for, or manage the aftermath of disasters, relatively little work has been done on the specific varieties of ignorance and the roles they play in disasters. The classical frameworks for decision-making under “uncertainty” are too restrictive, and many prescriptions for disaster management simply call for better communication or more data collection by way of reducing ignorance. Unfortunately, in connection with disasters, ignorance often is irreducible. This article presents a framework for understanding the various kinds of ignorance, and utilizes that framework to provide some insights and tools that may improve disaster preparedness, management, recovery, and learning.
Some Considerations on Personal Reactions to Emergency Stress in Employed and Volunteer Disaster Organization Personnel
Authors: Innes J. Michael , Slack Jennifer K.
Published: January 2023

This paper reviews research on occupational stress as it is relevant to the demands made upon members of the emergency services, in particular fire service and ambulance personnel. Personal characteristics which may enhance or alleviate reactions to job stress are considered in concert with the effects, both positive and negative, of the support provided by other people, whether co-workers or family members. Particular attention is paid to the impact of stress upon volunteer personnel, as the characteristics which motivate people to take voluntary positions may in some cases heighten their reaction to job stressors.
Evacuation in Cancun During Hurricane Gilbert
Authors: Aguirre B. E.
Published: January 2023

This paper describes the evacuation of the population of Cancun, Mexico during Hurricane Gilbert, and identifies some of the correlates of their evacuation behavior. The information was collected during a post-disaster visit conducted one week after impact (September 13, 1988) and as part of a survey a year later of a random sample of 431 persons 18 years old and older who resided in Cancun at the time of the disaster. One-fourth of the respondents evacuated. The majority of the evacuees found shelter in the homes of friends, neighbors, and relatives and were gone from their homes a week or less. Socio-demographic variables such as the number of persons in the household, gender, age, and marital status were not very useful predictors of evacuation behavior. Lower socioeconomic status (SES) and higher numbers of family contacts did not increase the probability of evacuation. The findings underscore the importance of calculations of risk for understanding evacuation behavior. The environmental context and physical characteristics of residences are significant variables impacting on the perceptions of risk and on subsequent evacuation behavior.
Motivating Public Evacuation
Authors: Fitzpatrick Colleen , Mileti Dennis S.
Published: January 2023

A common theme in the literature on evacuation compliance is the result of largely social psychological perceptions of risk formed prior to taking the protective action. From this perspective, evacuation is a function of warning recipients corning to define themselves as in danger and believing that fleeing the immediate environment wilt reduce that danger. This paper explores the social psychological and social structural processes that result in such perceptions. In particular, attention is given to identifying perceptions that motivate evacuation, factors that direct perceptual outcomes and the ways in which motivation and perception are translated into action.
The Evolution of Crises: Crisis Precursors
Authors: Shrivastava Paul , Miller Danny , Miglani Anil
Published: January 2023

Industrial crises, or organizationally based technological disasters that cause major harm to human life and/or the natural environment, may be triggered by industrial accidents, environmental pollution incidents, product injuries, or occupational hazards. While past explanations of crisis causes focusing on technological, organizational and interorganizational failures; as well as simultaneous failures of technological, organizational and societal systems provide us with a good understanding of immediate causes of events that trigger crises, the authors point out that we still lack an understanding of how preconditions for crises arise. Argumg that the precursor conditions of industrial crises are rooted in the historical development of organizations, and interactions between organizations and their environments, the authors attempt to determine why these precursors arise. Using an analysis of data on the Bhopal and the Three Mile Island crises, they trace the evolution of crisis precursor conditions, and present the patterns and logics of change in organizational and environmental variables observed in the two cases studied.
Political Responses to Natural Hazards: Social Movement Participation Following a Flood Disaster
Authors: Blocker T. Jean , Rochford E. Burke , Sherkat Darren E.
Published: January 2023

While much research attention has been focused recently upon understanding and interpreting social movements which emerge in response to technological hazards, comparatively little work has been directed toward the systematic examination of factors related to protest activity in the aftermath of natural hazards. The authors study community activism after a major flood mitigation project failed to provide the promised protection from stormwater damage. They conclude that citizen response to natural events is becoming far less distinct from that witnessed in the aftermath of man-made events, because the technology to mitigate impacts of natural disasters is becoming more available. The results of the study show that solidarity is a necessary ingredient for social movement facilitation, particularly when the movement is loosely structured and urgently organized, and that the presence of solidarity aids in the communication of grievances, recruitment of members, and the coordination of activities.
The Transformation of Community Consciousness: The Effects of Citizens’ Organizations on Host Communities
Authors: Cable Sherry , Degulis Beth
Published: January 2023

We compare two citizens’ organizations and find that mobilization enhanced community solidarity to the point that a collective change of consciousness occurred. We suggest that the effects of a citizens’ organization on the host community are significantly determined by three factors: the degree of premobilization integration of the community; the presence of economic constraints made salient by the mobilization issue; and the extent to which the issue cuts across existing political cleavages. We conclude that the study of emergent citizens’ groups in disasters is enhanced by using a social movements perspective.
Low Level Environmental Hazards: Public Policy Response to Sinkholes
Authors: Jurie Jay D.
Published: January 2023

Growth and expanded settlement patterns have increasingly placed more people and property at risk to a variety of environmental hazards. While risks traditionally considered high-level, such as hurricanes or earthquakes, continue to generate a need for coordinated and effective policy response, populations are now increasingly exposed to a variety of low-level indoor and outdoor hazards as well. Sinkholes, one example of an outdoor hazard, are found in several states throughout the mid-Atlantic, midwest, and southeastern United States. The development of a low-level environmental hazards management response to sinkholes would be applicable to several other low-level environmental hazards including minor earthquake damage, land or mudslides, mine subsidence and erosion. The authors argue that in areas where sinkholes and similar problems pose threats to public infrastructure and private property, local government officials need to define effective response and also build cognizance of sinkholes into comprehensive planning and policies.
The Impact of Disaster Education on Household Preparedness for Hurricane Hugo
Authors: Faupel Charles E. , Kelley Susan P. , Petee Thomas
Published: January 2023

This article examines the impact of disaster education on hurricane preparedness among residents in Charleston, South Carolina. The article examines (1) the impact of participation in disaster education programs generally; (2) the impact of hurricane experience as a type of education; and (3) the impact of participation in earthquake specific education programs to determine whether there is any transference of knowledge across agent types. Two indices of preparedness are used: household planning activities, and adaptive response activities. It was found that participation in some type of disaster education program is strongly related to the preparedness measures. Hurricane experience has some minimal effect on adaptive response but not on household planning. Participation in the earthquake specific education programs is not a significant predictor when controlling for other variables.
Warning and Evacuation During a Mass Disaster: A Multivariate Decision Making Model
Authors: Kirschenbnum Alan
Published: January 2023

The development of an evacuation decision making model is explored here. Information obtained from a 20 percent areal sample of population who were in a disaster area in Israel were asked to reconstruct the events leading up to, during and after the crisis. Affective reactions and behavioral acts were recorded. Evacuation was not universal thereby providing the basis of a multivariate analysis whose aim was to generate a parsimonious logistic regression model so as to decipher what independent variables could best explain the decision to leave or stay. The parsimonious model, based on previous research, focused on major conceptual and empirical factors involved m an evacuation decision. The results indicated that a positive/negative decision to stay or leave a disaster area is dependent upon a specific aspect of the warning process, namely the means of information acquisition, its confirmation and the degree of support provided by neighbors and neighborhood social networks. These results point out the complexity of the model and stress how individual, family and community are all bound up in the evacuation process.
Measuring Disaster Impact on Household Living Conditions: The Domestic Assets Approach
Authors: Bates Frederick L. , Peacock Walter Gillis
Published: January 2023

Disaster researchers need to develop a standardized battery of measurement instruments of key variables determined to be important in assessing disaster impact and recovery. Such a tool kit is critical for insuring a quick and rapid response of researchers and will facilitate research comparability. This paper introduced one such measure, the domestic assets index, which is designed to assess levels and changes in household living conditions. Also discussed are, the theory behind the measure, its utility for disaster research and the measures reliability and validity using data collected in six sample communities located in the United States, Italy, Yugoslavia, Mexico, Turkey, and Peru.
Defining Disaster Relief: Disaster Victims and Disaster Relief Administration in the Case of Mt. Unzen's Eruption
Authors: Hirose Hirotada
Published: January 2023

The eruption of Mt. Unzen, from November 1990 to June 1991, brought on one of the worst volcanic disasters in Japan. Never before in post-war Japanese history has a natural disaster forced so many people to live as evacuees for so long, Two questionnaire surveys were carried out, the first in August, 1991 and the second in February, 1992. Conclusions drawn from these indicates that material assistance is important, but even more significant is the adoption of far-sighted policies to help evacuees adapt to their new disaster-caused situation. This would seem to be the biggest lesson to be learned from how today's affluent Japanese society dealt with the disaster.
Converting Disaster Scholarship into Effective Disaster Planning and Managing: Possibilities and Limitations
Authors: Quarantelli E. L.
Published: January 2023

I have spent most of my professional life since the 1950s doing research on the social aspects of disasters, This social science research in which I have participated, is of course part of a much larger body of studies undertaken in the last 40 years, could be characterized in a whole variety of ways as to findings, motifs, implications, uses, etc. But there is one theme that runs through the bulk of the work that has been done up to now: according to research findings much of what is generally believed about disaster related individual and group behavior is not true or correct. As I and others have phrased it, we are embedded in a great number of misconceptions or myths about behavior in disasters. This disaster mythology clearly does not make for effective planning for or managing of such crisis occasions.
Structured Meeting Techniques that Identify Emergency Management Issues Practitioners Really Want to See Addressed
Authors: Ruberg George E. , Keeling John F.
Published: January 2023

This paper introduces three structured meeting techniques that can be used to determine emergency management (EM) issues practitioners really want to see addressed The secondary purpose is to list the benefits of using these techniques and provide recommendations for research based on three applications of the techniques.
“The Rubble's Standing Up” in Oroville, California: The Politics of Building Safety
Authors: Olson Richard Stuart , Olson Robert A.
Published: January 2023

Disaster researchers have long been aware that the political context of mitigation and preparedness measures has a formidable impact on their initiation, adoption and implementation. Yet most discussion and reporting of the political aspects of disasters have remained anecdotal, and few scholars have attempted to incorporate systematically political forces into social science models applied to disaster phenomena. This paper represents an explicit attempt to describe and explain the impact of politics on the public policy debate over structural safety in Oroville. California, following a damaging 1975 earthquake.
Earthquake Hysteria, before and After: A Survey and Follow-Up on Public Response to the Browning Forecast
Authors: Farley John E. , Barlow Hugh D. , Finkelsteln Marvin S. , Riley Larry
Published: January 2023

Telephone surveys were conducted in the St. Louis metropolitan area, Cape Girardeau, MO, and Sikeston, MO, in October, 1990 and February, 1991, before and after the date on which Iben Browning predicted a damaging New Madrid earthquake would occur. The surveys revealed that a sizeable minority clearly believed Browning's prediction, with a much larger group ambivalent about it. Those with lower levels of education, women, those whose thinking about the prediction was influenced by a minor earthquake that occurred in September, those closer to the New Madrid Fault, and those who expected a war with Iraq were more likely to believe the prediction. Many planned changed in schedules, and such plans were strongly influenced by the perceived actions of significant others. In contrast, they were not strongly influenced by believing or not believing the prediction. When the date of the predicted quake arrived, far fewer actually changed their schedules than had indicated plans to do so, and schedule changes were largely a product of school or work cancellations. The prediction did contribute to an increase in household preparedness which was sustained two months after its disconfirmation, but the actions most often taken were ones that were easiest to take. People close to the fault reported higher levels of preparedness. Despite the disconfirmation of the prediction, most respondents still viewed a damaging earthquake as likely withoin the next 10 to 15 years.
Media Coverage of the Browning Prediction
Authors: Shipman Martin , Fowler Gil , Shain Russ
Published: January 2023

A study of three newspapers that primarily serve the New Madrid Fault area shows that the press and public officials probably share the blame for public panic surrounding the 1990 Iben Browning earthquake prediction. The press failed to report soon enough scientists’ views that refuted Browning's prediction, and some public officials used mass media to promote earthquake awareness even though the tactics fed public misperceptions about the likelihood of Browning's prediction coming to pass.
Methodological Issues in the Study of the Browning Prediction
Authors: Wetzel Christopher G. , Hettinger Edward , McMillan Robert , Rayburn Monroe , Nix Andrew
Published: January 2023

We examined five methodological issues which could contaminate research on people's reactions to the Browning quake prediction: sample biases, self-selection artifacts, historical event artifacts, self report inconsistency over time, and reactive testing effects. We found some evidence for self-selection biases in mail survey return rates, especially during the one-week period before the predicted quake. People who were threatened by the prediction were less likely to complete these surveys. There was a self-selection artifact associated with the TV movie “The Big One” and with the “Unsolved Mysteries” episode on Browning. These two shows attracted people who were already concerned about quakes and believed the prediction. After the prediction was disconfirmed, a control group of participants showed large declines in the perceived likelihood of future quakes, suggesting that either some historical artifact or simple knowledge that a scientist's prediction was wrong caused a disillusionment or “cry wolf” effect. People who lived near the New Madrid fault also manifested this decline, but it was significantly smaller than the one for the control group. Consistency of self reports about preparation for the predicted earthquake and the consistency of self-reports about watching the “Big One” and the “Unsolved Mysteries” episode were very high. We found no pretest sensitization effects, but we did uncover an unusual reactivity effect for surveys given after the failed prediction. We compared people surveyed immediately after the prediction failed and at a six week follow-up to those who were surveyed only at the six-weeks follow-up. Filling out the immediate-post survey had the effect of reducing concern about earthquakes on the six-week follow-up. These artifacts suggest that researchers must be cautious in generalizing from their samples, interpreting pre-post prediction changes, and claiming that media events have significant impact on beliefs about disasters.
The Structure of Disaster Research: Its Policy and Disciplinary Implications
Authors: Dynes Russell R. , Drabek Thomas E.
Published: January 2023

The context of sociological research on disaster is discussed by the various settings in which the research tradition has developed. In addition, both funders and users of that research are identified. It is suggested that the most important policy use of disaster research has been to change the conceptualization of disaster. While no specific study can be directly tied to particular policy changes, the overall research tradition has had a transforming effect. That transformation is, of course, more obvious in some societies than in others.

In the future, it is suggested that increased attention will be given to disaster preparedness and planning because of more and worse disasters. This means that social science research will continue to thrive because of its potential utility in problem solving. However, future research will be increasingly cast in interdisciplinary terms. Given the reluctance to support basic research, the relationship between applied research and the core disciplines will be come more problematic.
Despite Appearances, There Could be a System: Mass Casualties and the Edmonton Tornado
Authors: Scanlon Joseph , Hiscott Robert
Published: January 2023

In plans for mass casualty situations, medical specialists see an emergency medical system in which individuals can be fitted in. There envisage a site and sorting (triage) at that site. They see the flow of victims from site to medical centers as controlled: those most able to benefit from immediate treatment will be moved first; the injured will be divided appropriately among the various hospitals.
Disaster Responses within the Tourist Industry
Authors: Drabek Thomas E.
Published: January 2023

Reflecting a series of converging international trends, the tourist industry represents a vulnerability of catastrophic potential. Interview and questionnaire data obtained from 185 owners or managers in nine U.S.A. communities, provide answers to five questions: (1) What is the extent of disaster evacuation planning? (2) What factors account for the variations in this planning? (3) What behavioral patterns occur during actual evacuations? (4) What factors account for these pattern variations? and (5) What are the policy implications of these behavioral assessments? While many larger firms managed by more professional staff have completed extensive disaster evacuation planning, the overall record in very spotty. Hence, major initiatives both within the industry, and by emergency managers at all levels of government, are needed to reduce this rapidly expanding vulnerability.
Coordination in a Governmental Disaster Mega-organization
Authors: Denis Hélène
Published: January 2023

Disasters, natural or technological, involve an interorganizational response that can take a structural form called the disaster mega-organization (DMO). The discussion will show how this concept is related to others in the field, and how the DMO coordination can be problematic, as illusrated by a PCB fire in Quebec, Canada. This case study also demonstrates that coordination is negotiated by those who must respond to a disaster. Finally, the mega–organization in a used-tire dump fire, also in Quebec, two years later, shows that there can be organizational learning and organizational changes in the DMO.
Multi-method Assessment of Organizational Effectiveness in a Local Emergency Planning Committee
Authors: Lindell Michael K. , Whitney David J. , Futch Christina J. , Clause Catherine S.
Published: January 2023

Previous studies of Local Emergency Planning Committee (LEPC) effectiveness have been influenced strongly by the practical issues of concern to state and federal agency personnel and by theoretical issues of interest to researchers, but not necessarily by issues that concern LEPC members. This problem was addressed by comparing the results of open-ended personal interviews with survey data collected from an LEPC in conjunction with a broader survey of 180 LEPC chairs and 1196 LEPC members in the Midwest. The personal interviews and standardized surveys generally produced convergent results, but the personal interviews also revealed a significant amount of conflict about members’ conceptions of the LEPC's mission, external role relationships, and staffing. This finding indicates that there are areas in which standardized surveys need to be improved and that LEPCs need to address a number of organizational design issues to increase their effectiveness.
Natural Disasters as Focusing Events: Policy Communities and Political Response
Authors: Birkland Thomas A.
Published: January 2023

This article explains how large hurricanes and earthquakes influence Congressional agenda activity. By understanding these events as focusing events, we can better appreciate how they induce the news media and Congress to be more attentive to these disasters. While the theory of focusing events outlined here is broadly supported, considerable differences are found between the hurricane and earthquake fields. These differences turn on the political environment in which federal policy to address these disasters is made, and include the nature of the committees charged with policy making, the nature of testimony offered before the committees, and the nature of the professional communities that are most active in this policy making. These differences help to explain why there is greater federal involvement in earthquake policy making than in hurricane policy. The policy implications of these differences are considered.
Not on the Record: Disasters, Records and Disaster Research
Authors: Scanlon Joseph
Published: January 2023

It is conventional wisdom that record keeping falls apart in disasters. Yet that is not documented in the research record. Drabek's (1986) exhaustive review of empirical studies has no reference to records. Quarantelli's (1983) work focused on a narrow subset of records: medical records in mass casualty situations. There are, in fact, problems with records and disasters. Some records wrich would be useful have never been made. Others are lost or damaged, inadequate or inaccurate. Even backups may not be available. There is also a problem with toxicity. The increasing links between humans and toxic events raise issues about the safety of records after an incident. This paper explores the types of records that would be useful to have about disasters and looks at how they should, or could, be created. Attention is also given to the question of records research strategies, as a means for—among other things—tapping the knowledge of disaster research pioneers before their information is lost.

Knowledge will grow scientifically only after the most faithful examination of many catastrophes. But it must be realized that the data of the greatest value is left offtimes unrecorded, and fades rapidly from the social memory.

Samuel Henry Prince.

Catastrophe and Social Change
Disaster Communication via the Information Superhighway: Data and Observations on the 1995 Hurricane Season
Authors: Emani Srinivas , Kasperson Jeanne X.
Published: January 2023

Although both researchers and practitioners have been using the Internet to communicate information on disasters, few systematic studies have assessed the type of information that is or should be communicated via this medium. This paper presents an exploratory, yet systematic study of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)'s coverage of the 1995 hurricane season via e-mail and the World Wide Web. An overview analysis of the 1995 season shows that FEMA distributed 184 e-mail messages of which 138 were hurricane-related and 46 were nonhurricane-related. Following this overview analysis, a case study is presented on FEMA's coverage of Hurricane Opal, which was associated with significant impacts in Florida. The focus of analysis in the case study is a type of e-mail message called the situation report (sitrep) which is used by FEMA to communicate information on disasters. The number, timing, and content of sitreps issued by FEMA for Hurricane Opal are analyzed and the results used to discuss the agency's communication efforts via the Internet.
The Use of Geographic Information Systems in Disaster Research
Authors: Dash Nicole
Published: January 2023

In the last ten years, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) have slowly crept their way into the everyday methodological discourse in areas such as geography, urban planning, and emergency management. However, GIS has yet to be integrated into social science research on disaster. This paper uses examples of GIS use in emergency management to help inform the future direction of GIS use in disaster research. While computers and software and, for that matter, data are vital to the development of an effective system, more important are researchers who can generate theory-based uses for the technology that offer new understandings of disaster phenomena. Only through research teams that include both researchers (idea generators) and technicians (idea “implementers”) can GIS be effectively used in disaster research.
Reconsidering the Phases of Disaster
Authors: Neal David M.
Published: January 2023

The use of disaster phases (e.g., preparedness, response, recovery, and mitigation) has assisted both disaster researchers and managers. Disaster researchers have used disaster phases to systematize and codify research results. Disaster managers have drawn upon disaster periods to organize their own activities. Yet, many problems exist with the current use of disaster periods. In summary, I find that the current uses of disaster periods lack conceptual clarity for improving scientific and practical use. As a result, I suggest ways the field can recast the use of disaster phases to improve the theoretical and applied dimensions of the field.