bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Rural‐Urban Migration Rates and Development: A Quantitative Note
Authors: Cook Christopher J.
Published: March 2003

There have been two earlier efforts to estimate how rural outmigration rates evolve over the development process. In one the sample was too small and possibilities of a non‐monotonic pattern were precluded. In the other inverted U‐shaped migration rate patterns were estimated on the basis of an urbanization logistic curve. It is argued here that estimates based on such a curve would tend to be biased downward at very high per capita income levels. The reason is the relatively small rural populations of most industrialized countries. In such countries relatively high rates of rural outmigration could still be consistent with relatively slow rates of urbanization. Using more direct estimation techniques inverted U‐shaped patterns were confirmed, but the turning points occurred much later in the development process and the migration rate estimates were sharply higher (up to five times at the highest per capita income levels) than those of the logistic estimates or even those estimated here on the basis of an LDC only sample. Finally, when the effects of income growth rates on migration rates were estimated directly, the high sensitivity levels found in the logistic study (where growth rates were treated simply as a shift parameter) could not be replicated.
Housing as a Means of Sustainable Economic Recovery in Southeast Asia
Authors: Mera Koichi , Heikkila Eric J.
Published: March 2003

This paper addresses the economic crisis in Southeast Asia as it effects the housing sector there. Our basic argument is that the lower end of the formal housing market sector (worker housing) provides the best opportunity to restore productive employment activity while addressing basic housing needs. We call for a range of policy measures to support this outcome, based in part on the recent experience in Japan with declining real estate markets. The policies include limited subsidies, guarantees and insurance for housing loans, along with a downward indexing of housing loans, strategic infrastructure investment and promotion of local building materials. These measures are necessary under the current circumstances of deficient aggregate demand. The key is to target demand increments where they are most likely to meet the basic need for shelter while generating productive market‐based activity.
Property Tax and Housing Returns
Authors: Tse Raymond Y.C. , Webb James R.
Published: March 2003

This paper evaluates the effects of property tax on housing. While land tax and capital gains tax are widely used for curbing hoarding of land and speculation, its effectiveness is inconclusive. The imposition of a capital gains tax will impair the liquidity of property transaction, lower the rate of return on property investment, and reduce revenue from land sales which represents an important tax resource for the communities. This paper shows that a capital gains tax is capitalized into housing prices. Individuals tend to postpone the purchase of houses because of transaction taxes. Using an impulse response function, we show that a transaction tax has a dynamic negative impact on housing returns. While this paper focuses on Hong kong, for the purpose of comparison Singapore and Taiwan are also discussed.
State Lotteries, Isolation and Economic Growth in the U.S.
Authors: Walker Douglas M. , Jackson John D.
Published: March 2003

This paper uses a Granger causality test adapted for use with cross‐section time series data, to (1) test the relationship between lottery revenue and state economic growth (per capita income), and (2) address the importance of cross‐border purchases in the relationship. Neither issue has been empirically tested previously. Previous evidence (Caudill, et al., 1995) suggests that states surrounded by lotteries are more likely than isolated states to introduce lotteries. But the empirical results here suggest that lotteries do not contribute to economic growth unless the state is isolated from other state lotteries. The importance of isolation suggests that cross‐border purchases (exports) of lottery tickets have a significant impact on the effectiveness of lotteries as fiscal policies, and that “defensive” lotteries (those introduced to keep citizens from buying tickets from neighboring states) are ineffective.
House Price Dynamics in Mumbai, 1989–1995
Authors: Tiwari Piyush , Hasegawa Hiroshi
Published: March 2003

The objective of this paper is to study the importance of price index methodology to analyzing intra‐metropolitan house price variations in Mumbai. Two hedonic regression‐based approaches – cross section and explicit time variable – are compared. The results indicate conclusively that the former is better than the latter. This paper also contributes to the literature on intra‐metropolitan house price variations by explaining them based on urban development, population and employment patterns in Mumbai.
Migration Turnarounds and Schedule Changes in Japan, Sweden and Canada
Authors: Ishikawa Yoshitaka
Published: March 2003

Little progress has been made in convincingly identifying the common determinants of the simultaneous migration turnarounds observed in almost all advanced countries. It is likely, however, that the turnarounds occurred in close relation to changes in the age patterns of the migration rates (or migration schedules). This paper examines the main causes of migration schedule changes by applying a model migration schedule to inter‐regional migration data from Japan, Sweden and Canada. The general decline of overall mobility defined by the gross migraproduction rate is common to the three countries. It was clarified that young adults' peak migration rate played a prominent role in changing migration schedules during the decades of the migration turnarounds.
Evolution of Employment Centers in Seoul
Authors: Jun Myung–jin , Ha Seong–kyu
Published: March 2003

The objectives of this study are to identify employment centers in Seoul for 1981, 1991, and 1996 and to examine the dynamics of urban spatial structure. We found that Seoul has experienced polycentric spatial transformation since 1981, having one major center (CBD) and two sub–centers. Like most Western cities, Seoul has experienced significant CBD decline during 1981–1996. Employment share of the CBD has decreased dramatically from 34.5% in 1981 to 17% in 1996, and absolute number of employment in the CBD has decreased by about 170,000 during 1981–1996. As two sub–centers have emerged since 1981, the role of the CBD as a provider of high–order services such as FIRE has shifted into the sub–centers. We also found that the polycentric urban form in Seoul makes average commuting distance longer.
Film Review
Authors: Knox‐Voina Jane E.
Published: March 2003

Kira Muratova (director), Tri istorii
Redistribution and Small Coalitions of Friends
Authors: Schroyen Fred
Published: March 2003

When side marketing trade is perfect, linear taxation of retradeable commodities is the only scheme that survives attempts to arbitrage. In this paper, I discuss tax schemes when side trading is imperfect in the sense that commodities can only be re‐exchanged within coalitions no larger than two people. In the framework of a two‐class economy, I identify coalitions which might have an incentive to form and provide a characterisation for the Pareto‐efficient tax scheme. The tax formula has a very simple form and strongly resembles the formula for the no‐side‐trade case. In a numerical exercise, the constraints imposed on policy by an imperfect side trading process are found to be almost as tough as those imposed by perfect side trading.
Persistence, Asymmetries and Interrelation in Factor Demand
Authors: Peeters Marga
Published: March 2003

A neoclassical factor demand model for structures, equipment and labour is analyzed in this paper. It incorporates a variety of dynamic specifications, such as a multi‐period time‐to‐build for structures, internal adjustment costs for each production factor, and external investment adjustment costs. First‐order conditions of the model are estimated by the generalized method of moments using manufacturing industry data from the US, Canada, West Germany, the UK (all 1960.I–1988.IV), France (1970.I–1992.II) and the Netherlands (1971.I–1990.IV). The results endorse time‐to‐build for structures, persistence of technology shocks and interrelations in adjustment cost dynamics.
Pollution Taxation and Revenue Recycling under Monopoly Unions
Authors: Strand Jon
Published: March 2003

A model where a given number of firms determine their pollution‐reducing production technologies upon establishment and workers form monopoly unions is used to study the possibility of “double dividends”, i.e., simultaneous reductions in pollution and increases in employment, when the pollution tax is increased, and tax revenues recycled, in alternative ways. In all cases pollution is reduced. When output is subsidized, the effect of a pollution tax increase on employment is always neutral. When employment, and investments, are subsidized, employment increases when investments are, respectively, relatively insensitive and sensitive to pollution taxes. Of the three subsidy instruments, the employment subsidy is always the most, and the investment subsidy the least efficient solution.
Virtual and Composite Fundamentals in the ERM
Authors: Knot Klaas H. W. , Sturm Jan‐Egbert
Published: March 2003

A latent‐variable approach is applied to identify the appropriate driving process for fundamental exchange rates in the ERM. From the time‐series characteristics of so‐called “virtual fundamentals” and “composite fundamentals”, a significant degree of mean reversion can be asserted. The relative degree of mean reversion across countries closely corresponds to often assumed degrees of economic integration vis‐a‐vis Germany as well as documented degrees of credibility of the exchange rate policies pursued. Convergence in fundamentals appears to be larger under the “new” EMS than in the previous years, but has again diminished after German unification and the subsequent widening of the ERM bands in 1993.
Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions
Authors: Svensson Lars E. O.
Published: March 2003

Previous analyses of the implementation of inflation targeting are extended to monetary policy responses to different shocks, consequences of model uncertainty, and effects of interest rate smoothing and stabilization. Model uncertainty, output stabilization, and interest rate stabilization or smoothing all call for a more gradual adjustment of the conditional inflation forecast toward the inflation target. The conditional inflation forecast is the natural intermediate target during inflation targeting. The optimal way of reacting to shocks is hence to check how they affect the inflation forecast and then take the appropriate action.

JEL classification: E42; E52; E58
International Integration, Risk and the Welfare State
Authors: Andersen Torben M.
Published: March 2003

How does international integration affect the welfare state? Does it call for a leaner or an expanded welfare state? International integration may affect the distortions caused by welfare state activities but also the risks motivating social insurance mechanisms. This paper addresses these potentially counteracting effects in a fully specified intertemporal two–country stochastic endowment model, focusing on the implications when product market integration reduces trade frictions across national product markets. It is shown that lower trade frictions may increase the marginal costs of public funds, which gives an argument for reducing (steady–state) public consumption. However, tighter integration of product markets unambiguously leads to more variability in private consumption, and this gives a case for expanding the social insurance provided via state–contingent public sector activities (automatic stabilizers).

JEL classification: E30; F10; H11
How is the Debt Managed? Learning from Fiscal Stabilizations
Authors: Missale Alessandro , Giavazzi Francesco , Benigno Pierpaolo
Published: March 2003

This paper examines public debt management during episodes of fiscal stabilization when long–term interest rates are generally higher than governments’ expectations of future rates. We find that governments increase the share of fixed–rate long–term debt denominated in the domestic currency, the higher is the conditional volatility of short–term interest rates, the lower are long–term interest rates, and the stronger is the fall in long–term rates that follows the announcement of the stabilization program. This evidence suggests that governments tend to prefer long to short maturity debt because they are concerned about refinancing risk. However, when long–term rates are high relative to their expectations, they issue short maturity debt to minimize borrowing costs.

JEL classification: E63; H63
Psychometric properties and standardised data for questionnaires measuring negative affect, dispositional style and daily hassles. A nation‐wide sample
Authors: Scott Berit , Melin Lennart
Published: March 2003

Within the behavioral field, self‐report inventories measuring emotional condition from a state/trait perspective are in frequent use. Some of these measures have insufficient standardisation and/or are out of date. In order to upgrade some of the frequently used self‐report inventories a nation‐wide survey (N=2500) was performed. Measures of negative affect (state‐anxiety STAI‐S, trait‐anger STAS‐T), and depression (CES‐D), dispositional style (LOT) and daily hassles (DH) were examined. Psychometric data and demographic differences for all the inventories used are presented. The reliability measures for the scales show high consistency, ranging from 0.76 to 0.95 (Cronbach’s alpha). The overall results indicate that females are more hassled, depressed, anxious, hostile, and have a more negative dispositional style than males. These results are most pronounced among younger females.
Coping with bereavement in relation to different feminine gender roles
Authors: Lindstrøm Torill Christine
Published: March 2003

The effect of gender role on coping with conjugal bereavement was studied in 44 Norwegian widows. A “traditional” and a “modern” feminine gender role were juxtaposed. Information was collected by two semi‐structured interviews concerning coping with bereavement, and by a health inventory (UHI). The information was analysed qualitatively in relation to central elements in the coping process (appraisals, problems, coping strategies, self‐evaluations of coping, future expectancies of coping, and relevance of external resources). The findings revealed considerable differences in coping between the two gender roles, favouring the modern feminine gender role.
In defence of the criticism of the Defence Mechanism Test (DMT): A reply to Kragh (1998)
Authors: EKEHAMMAR BO , ZUBER IRENA
Published: March 2003

Kragh (Scandinavian Journal of Psychology, 1998, 39, 123–124) criticises a recent empirical study of the Defence Mechanism Test (DMT) conducted by the present authors (Zuber & Ekehammar, 1997) concerning methodological and other shortcomings. The present paper reviews and responds to Kragh’s critical points. As to the most serious criticism, the methodological, the main conclusion is that Kragh’s own published empirical studies of the DMT, and also those of other researchers, can be criticised along similar lines. Furthermore, and surprisingly, in contrast to our study, Kragh's main DMT studies do not employ the DMT picture(s) at all.
The concept of general expectancy in various personality dispositions
Authors: Haugen Richard , Lund Thorleif
Published: March 2003

It is argued that the concept of general expectancy is a central common core of personality dispositions related to achievement areas. This hypothesis of common core was investigated with factor analysis and cluster analysis. 166 advanced teacher students participated, and were scored on the following relevant personality dispositions motive to seek success, motive to avoid failure, global and academic self‐esteem, self‐efficacy, attributional style, depression, and defensiveness. The hypothesis was supported in that factor analysis gave a general bipolar expectancy factor, and cluster analysis resulted in two clusters, one corresponding to positive expectancy and the other to negative expectancy.
Social representations of smoking and attitudes towards smoking restrictions in the Norwigian Navy
Authors: Friestad Christine , Rise Jostein , Røysamb Espen
Published: March 2003

The present study investigated the relationship bewteen social representations about smokers and smoking, and attitudes towards smoking restrictions. Data were collected by means of questionnaires among a sample of employees (n=4224)in the Norwegian Navy. Based on the results from first‐ and second‐order principal components analyses, three dimensions of social representations were identified. The dimensions were labeled “negative representations”, “positive representations” and “social influence”. The three dimensions clearly differentiated between daliy, occasional and non‐smokers. Further, structural equation modeling of the relation between social representations and attitudes towards smoking restrictions, indicated that social representations function as intermediating factors of the effect from smoking states upon attitudes towards smoking restrictions.

The findings indicate the need to focus upon social psyshological processes taking place in the ineraction between groups of smokers and non‐smokers, as understanding of such processes may be relevant in preventing the development of group conflict.
Informed by the ancients: Norse mythology and psychotherapy
Authors: Smith Edward W.L.
Published: March 2003

The myth of Kvasir is presented, in part. Through hermeneutic discourse, a case is made that the ancient Norseman had an understanding of the psychotherapeutic arts which finds parallel in contemporary thought. The myth evidences the distinction between: (1) the offering of needed information; and (2) the facilitation of personal, growth‐oriented exploration. In contemporary terms, this is the distinction sometimes drawn beween “counseling” and “psychotherapy”, respectively. More thorough and careful exegesis of the myth reveals the ubiquitous importance of the personhood of the therapist. It is through the “person of the therapist” that the therapeutic techniques are given life. The ancient wisdom contained in the myth of Kvasir may server as inspiration and guidance for the contemporary psychotherapist.
Swedish primary school pupils’ inter‐ethnic relationships
Authors: Vedder Paul , O’Dowd Mina
Published: March 2003

The aim of the Swedish educational policy is educional participation and academic achievement for all children, irrespective of ethnic backgroud. Majority lauguage instruction is an imortant tool used to achieve this goal. We argue that taking lessons in Swedish‐as‐a‐second‐lanuage (S2) sets children apart in their class and limits their possibilities to interact with Swedish children and the immigrant children, who do not receive S2‐lessons. In accordance with the contact hypothesis, we assumed that this limitation would have a negative impact on peer evaluation of these pupils’ social competence. 394 children in ethnically mixed classes (grades 4–6) participated in the study reported in this article. As hypothesized, S2‐children’s sociability was evaluated significantly lower than that of Swedish children. Immigrant children, who do not have S‐2 lessons, do not have significantly lower scores. These findings were confirmed, using teachers’ evaluations of children’s social competence. It is suggested that more research is needed to investigate whether communicative skills, academic competence, or, perhaps, the organizational consequences of extra language lessons play a role in children’s assessments of peer social competence.
How do mothers signal shared feeling‐states to their infants? An investigation of affect attunement and imitation during the first year of life
Authors: Jonsson Carl‐Otto , Clinton David , Fahrman Monica , Mazzaglia Gizella , Novak Slavka , Sörhus Karin
Published: March 2003

The present study examined how mothers signal shared feeling‐states to their infants. Affect attunement and imitation were investigated cross‐culturally in 39 mother‐infant dyads from Sweden (N = 22) and the former Yugoslavia (N = 17) during the first year of life. Video‐recordings of playful interaction between mothers and their infants were analysed using the Affect Attunement Protocol. A significant negative association between imitation and age was found, while there was a significant positive association between affect attunement and age. Single occurrences of affect attunement appeared already at two or three months of age, and by 6 months of age episodes of affect attunement were more common than imitation. Frequencies of imitation and affect attunement were similar cross‐culturally and in terms of gender, although there was a significant interaction between age and gender. The results suggest that the signalling of shared feeling‐states is not a static process. Mothers do not signal shared feeling‐states in the same manner at different ages. Imitation is the most important process during the earliest months, but is superseded by affect attunement earlier than previously thought. The functional implications of this developmental variation are discussed.
Structure of conduct problems in adolescence
Authors: Storvoll Elisabet E. , Wichstrøm Lars , Kolstad Arne , Pape Hilde
Published: March 2003

Scholars disagree about whether adolescent conduct problems (CPs) form a single behavioral syndrome or whether such problems are better conceptualized as different dimensions. The arguments raised by both sides are addressed and tested empirically by analysing data from a large general population sample of Norwegian adolescents (n = 9,342). Confirmatory factor analyses show that a single syndrome of CPs may be subdivided into three highly correlated factors. The first dimension, destructive covert, includes theft and vandalism, whereas the second, nondestructive covert, reflects avoidance of arenas under adult control. The last dimension, overt, includes school opposition and fighting. This three‐factor model fits well for both girls and boys, and individuals in their early and late teens. Results from scale analyses are modestly to moderately indicative of a developmental continuum of severity of CPs ranging from nondestructive covert to overt to destructive covert. Taken together the findings imply that both a unidimensional and a multidimensional perspective on CPs are applicable in the general youth population.
Online group interaction and mental health: An analysis of three online discussion forums
Authors: Johnsen Jan–Are K. , Rosenvinge Jan H. , Gammon Deede
Published: March 2003

The present study examined interactions on three Norwegian online discussion forums, and attempted to identify differences in interactions and plausible outcomes of thematically dissimilar forums. Four categories were applied to the forums in order to distinguish potentially constructive and destructive uses. Interaction along the constructive–destructive dimension was contingent upon the themes discussed, as well as the level and nature of professional involvement. Interaction adhering to a destructive dimension was identified only in relation to the forum for eating disorders. Discovering to what extent theme and professional involvement influence interactions in discussion forums might guide further professional involvement in online group settings and the design of appropriate online environments.
Potential perceptual bases for successful use of a vibrotactile speech perception aid
Authors: Bernstei Lynne E. , Tucke Paula E. , Auer, Jr Edward T.
Published: March 2003

This paper examines the possibility that perception of vibrotactile speech stimuli is enhanced in adults with early and life‐long use of hearing aids. We present evidence that vibrotactile aid benefit in adults is directly related to the age at which the hearing aid was fitted and the duration of its use. The stimulus mechanism responsible for this effect is hypothesized to be long‐term vibrotactile stimulation by high powered hearing aids. We speculate on possible mechanisms for enhanced vibrotactile speech perception as the result of hearing aid use: (1) long‐term experience receiving degraded or impoverished speech stimuli results in a speech processing system that is more effective for novel stimuli, independent of perceptual modality; and/or (2) long‐term sensory/perceptual experience causes neural changes that result in more effective delivery of speech information via somatosensory pathways.
Music and driving game performance
Authors: North Adrian C. , Hargreaves David J.
Published: March 2003

This study investigated the effects of the nature of music and a concurrent task on measures of task performance and musical preference. Subjects completed 5 laps of a computer motor racing game whilst listening to either arousing or relatively unarousing music in either the presence or absence of a backward‐counting task. Both these manipulations affected performance on the game with arousing music and backward‐counting leading to slower lap times than relatively unarousing music and the absence of the backward‐counting task. Backward‐counting led to lower liking for the music than did the absence of this task. These results support the idea that music and the concurrent task competed for a limited processing resource. The results also indicated that liking for the music was positively related to task performance, and in conjunction these findings seem to suggest a direct link between music and the listening context.
The Posterior Distribution of the Parameters of Component Lifetimes Based on Autopsy Data in a Shock Model
Authors: Gåsemyr Jørund , Natvig Bent
Published: March 2003

In this paper we consider a binary, monotone system whose component states are dependent through the possible occurrence of independent common shocks, i.e. shocks that destroy several components at once. The individual failure of a component is also thought of as a shock. Such systems can be used to model common cause failures in reliability analysis. The system may be a technological one, or a human being. It is observed until it fails or dies. At this instant, the set of failed components and the failure time of the system are noted. The failure times of the components are not known. These are the so‐called autopsy data of the system. For the case of independent components, i.e. no common shocks, Meilijson (1981), Nowik (1990), Antoine et al. (1993) and GTsemyr (1998) discuss the corresponding identifiability problem, i.e. whether the component life distributions can be determined from the distribution of the observed data. Assuming a model where autopsy data is known to be enough for identifia bility, Meilijson (1994) goes beyond the identifiability question and into maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the component lifetime distributions based on empirical autopsy data from a sample of several systems. He also considers life‐monitoring of some components and conditional life‐monitoring of some other. Here a corresponding Bayesian approach is presented for the shock model. Due to prior information one advantage of this approach is that the identifiability problem represents no obstacle. The motivation for introducing the shock model is that the autopsy model is of special importance when components can not be tested separately because it is difficult to reproduce the conditions prevailing in the functioning system. In Gåsemyr & Natvig (1997) we treat the Bayesian approach to life‐monitoring and conditional life‐ monitoring of components
On Comparison of Stopping Times in Sequential Procedures for Exponential Families of Stochastic Processes
Authors: Sørensen Michael
Published: March 2003

For curved (k + 1), k‐exponential families of stochastic processes a natural and often studied sequential procedure is to stop observation when a linear combination of the coordinates of the canonical process crosses a prescribed level. For such procedures the model is, approximately or exactly, a non‐curved exponential family. Subfamilies of these stopping rules defined by having the same Fisher (expected) information are considered. Within a subfamily the Bartlett correction for a point hypothesis is also constant. Methods for comparing the durations of the sampling periods for the stopping rules in such a subfamily are discussed. It turns out that some stopping times tend to be smaller than others. For exponential families of diffusions and of counting processes the probability that one such stopping time is smaller than another can be given explicity. More generally, an Edgeworth expansion of this probability is given
Wild Bootstrapping in Finite Populations with Auxiliary Information
Authors: Helmers Roelof , Wegkamp Marten
Published: March 2003

Consider a finite population u, which can be viewed as a realization of a super‐population model. A simple ratio model (linear regression, without intercept) with heteroscedastic errors is supposed to have generated u. A random sample is drawn without replacement from u. In this set‐up a two‐stage wild bootstrap resampling scheme as well as several other useful forms of bootstrapping in finite populations will be considered. Some asymptotic results for various bootstrap approximations for normalized and Studentized versions of the well‐known ratio and regression estimator are given. Bootstrap based confidence interval s for the population total and for the regression parameter of the underlying ratio model are also discussed
Likelihood Imputation
Authors: Zhang Li‐Chun
Published: March 2003

The method of likelihood imputation is devised under the framework of latent structure models where the observation is a statistic of the complete data which can only be specified on a latent basis. The imputed data set is chosen to differ least from the observed one in their information contents—a concept with general implications for the analysis of incomplete‐data. In contrast to the standard conditional‐mean single imputation, our procedure depends on an entire likelihood region instead of any single point in it, and yields consistent parameter estimators nevertheless. We explain its implementations and illustrate with data from panel surveys and linear regression with censorship. We also discuss its potentials in sensitivity analysis
Multiplicative Bias Correction in Kernel Hazard Estimation
Authors: Nielson Jens Perch
Published: March 2003

A multiplicative bias reducing technique is introduced for kernel hazard estimation. Similar methods were introduced by Linton & Nielsen (1994) in non‐parametric regression and Jones et al. (1995) in non‐parametric density estimation. A simulation study indicates good performance of the method. An application is provided on the development of Danish mortality.
Statistical Models for Birth and Death on a Flow: Local Absolute Continuity and Likelihood Ratio Processes
Authors: Höpfner R. , Löcherbach E.
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACT. We consider statistical models for birth and death on a flow. We give necessary and sufficient conditions for local absolute continuity between laws of such processes on a suitable canonical path space, and prove that likelihood ratio processes do have a very simple form. Key tools are criteria for local absolute continuity of laws of l‐point motions–for arbitrary l–on stochastic flows, under an assumption on the structure of infinitesimalcovariances.
Flowgraph Models for Generalized Phase Type Distributions Having Non‐Exponential Waiting Times
Authors: Huzurbazar Aparna V.
Published: March 2003

ABSTRACT. Aalen (1995) introduced phase type distributions based on Markov processes for modelling disease progression in survival analysis. For tractability and to maintain the Markov property, these use exponential waiting times for transitions between states. This article extends the work of Aalen (1995) by generalizing these models to semi‐Markov processes with non‐exponential waiting times. The generalization allows more realistic modelling of the stages of a disease where the Markov property and exponential waiting times may not hold. Flowgraph models are introduced to provide a closed form for the distributions in situations involving non‐exponential waiting times. Flowgraph models work where traditional methods of stochastic processes are intractable. Saddlepoint approximations are used in the analysis. Together, generalized phase type distributions, flowgraphs, and saddlepoint approximations create exciting and innovative prospects for the analysis of survival data.
Tail Exactness of Multivariate Saddlepoint Approximations
Authors: Barndorff‐Nielsen O. E. , Kluppelberg C.
Published: March 2003

We consider a log‐concave density f in Rm satisfying certain weak conditions, particularly on the Hessian matrix of log f. For such a density, we prove tail exactness of the multivariate saddlepoint approximation. The proof is based on a local limit theorem for the exponential family generated by f. However, the result refers not to asymptotic behaviour under repeated sampling, but to a limiting property at the boundary of the domain of f. Our approach does not apply any complex analysis, but relies totally on convex analysis and exponential models arguments.
A Note on Empirical Process Methods in the Theory of Poisson Point Processes
Authors: Liese F. , Ziegler K.
Published: March 2003

For a sample taken from an i.i.d. sequence of Poisson point processes with not necessarily finite unknown intensity measure the arithmetic mean is shown to be an estimator which is consistent uniformly on certain classes of functions. The method is a reduction to the case of finite intensity measure, which in turn can be dealt with using empirical process methods. A functional central limit theorem is also established in this context.
On Statistical Models for d‐Dimensional Stable Processes, and Some Generalizations
Authors: Hopfner Reinhard
Published: March 2003

In statistical models where jumps of a d‐dimensional stable process (St)t≥0 are observed in windows with certain asymptotic properties, and where parameters appearing in the Levy measure of S are to be estimated, we have asymptotically efficient estimators. If Poisson random measure μ on (0, ∞) × (Rd\{0}) with intensity dtΛ(dx) replaces the jump measure of S, where Λ is a ε‐finite measure on Rd\{0} admitting tail parameters in a suitable sense, we specify a notion of neighbourhood which allows to treat efficiency in statistical experiments of the second type by switching to accompanying sequences of the stable process type considered first.
Adjustment of the Profile Likelihood for a Class of Normal Regression Models
Authors: Durban Maria , Currie I. D.
Published: March 2003

We apply the method of McCullagh & Tibshirani (1990) to a generalization of the model for variance components in which the parameter of interest can appear in both the mean and variance. We obtain the exact adjusted profile log‐likelihood score function. For the variance components model, we obtain the adjusted profile log‐likelihood and show that it equals the restricted log‐likelihood of Patterson & Thompson (1971). We discuss an example due to Kempton (1982) of a regression model with autoregressive terms in which the parameter of interest appears in both the mean and variance.
On the Critical Value Behaviour of Multiple Decision Procedures
Authors: Finner H. , Roters M.
Published: March 2003

In this paper we investigate the asymptotic critical value behaviour of certain multiple decision procedures as e.g. simultaneous confidence intervals and simultaneous as well as stepwise multiple test procedures. Supposing that n hypotheses or parameters of interest are under consideration we investigate the critical value behaviour when n increases. More specifically, we answer e.g. the question by which amount the lengths of confidence intervals increase when an additional parameter is added to the statistical analysis. Furthermore, critical values of different multiple decision procedures as for instance step‐down and step‐up procedures will be compared. Some general theoretic results are derived and applied for various distributions.
Sieved Maximum Likelihood Estimation in Wicksell's Problem and Related Deconvolution Problems
Authors: Jongbloed Geurt
Published: March 2003

It is shown that the classical Wicksell problem is related to a deconvolution problem where the convolution kernel is unbounded, convex and decreasing on (0, ∞). For that type of deconvolution problems, the usual non‐parametric maximum likelihood estimator of the distribution function is shown not to exist. A sieved maximum likelihood estimator is defined, and some algorithms are described that can be used to compute this estimator. Moreover, this estimator is proved to be strongly consistent.
The Consistency of Estimators in Finite Mixture Models
Authors: Cheng R. C. H. , Liu W. B.
Published: March 2003

The parameters of a finite mixture model cannot be consistently estimated when the data come from an embedded distribution with fewer components than that being fitted, because the distribution is represented by a subset in the parameter space, and not by a single point. Feng & McCulloch (1996) give conditions, not easily verified, under which the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator will converge to an arbitrary point in this subset. We show that the conditions can be considerably weakened. Even though embedded distributions may not be uniquely represented in the parameter space, estimators of quantities of interest, like the mean or variance of the distribution, may nevertheless actually be consistent in the conventional sense. We give an example of some practical interest where the ML estimators are root of n‐consistent.

Similarly consistent statistics can usually be found to test for a simpler model vs a full model. We suggest a test statistic suitable for a general class of model and propose a parameter‐based bootstrap test, based on this statistic, for when the simpler model is correct.
Review Article: Scandinavian Parties in the Internal and External Arena
Authors: Sundberg Jan
Published: March 2003

Party research lived a relatively quiet life during the 1970s and 1980s in the western world, and to some degree also in Scandinavia, although the central role of parties in the Scandinavian democracies made it impossible for political scientists to completely ignore political parties in their research. However, from the end of 1980s, political party research has been revitalized, and the number of publications has increased substantially. The three books reviewed here are part of the upswing during 1997, which, of course, includes other books and publications from that particular year. Why this renewed interest in studying political parties? For a long period after World War II, Scandinavian political parties were characterized as stable mass organizations. In 1973, the established Danish political system suffered an electoral backlash, and the shock waves gave fuel to speculations of party decline in electoral behavior studies. At the same time, similar trends were visible in Finland and Norway. Much later, interest focused on finding the same signs of decline in the internal party arena. The discussion is still alive, and during this process students of political science have gained new knowledge about parties and their organizations in Scandinavia.
The Danish Welfare State under Bourgeois Reign: The Dilemma of Popular Entrenchment and Economic Constraints
Authors: Green‐Pedersen Christoffer
Published: March 2003

From 1982 to 1993, a decade of tight economic constraints, the Danish welfare state was governed by bourgeois parties. The expectation of the power resources model, the most prevalent theory about the Scandinavian welfare states, was that the Danish welfare state would be turned further in a residual direction. Those expectations were, however, never fulfilled – on the contrary, the Danish welfare state was further expanded in a social democratic direction. A focus on how the bourgeois governments, often in a difficult parliamentary situation, tried to adapt the popular Danish welfare state to less favorable economic conditions accounts for important aspects of this development. The bourgeois governments relied on a combination of increased benefits to large groups of voters and well‐hidden measures to strengthen public finances.
Testing the Politics of Presence: Women’s Representation in the Swedish Riksdag
Authors: Wängnerud Lena
Published: March 2003

This article focuses on women’s representation in the Swedish Riksdag. The theory of the politics of presence serves as a point of departure. The aim is to underpin empirically – or to test empirically – the assertion that female politicians, to a greater extent than male politicians, represent the interests of women. The concept of women’s interests divides, on a theoretical level, into three components: the recognition of women as a social category; acknowledgement of the unequal balance of power between the sexes; and the occurrence of policies to increase the autonomy of female citizens. On the empirical level this corresponds to measurements indicating female versus male MPs’ attitudes and behaviour in areas such as gender equality and social welfare policy. The data used are parliamentary survey studies from 1985, 1988, and 1994. The analysis controls for effects of politicians’ gender when other factors – e.g. party affiliation, age, education, and parliamentary experience – are taken into account. The main result is that the theory of the politics of presence gains strong empirical support. What this study contributes is a significant measure of stability for the feminist critique of more established theories of representative democracy.
Legitimacy through Partnership? EU Policy Diffusion in Britain and Sweden
Authors: Bache Ian , Olsson Jan
Published: March 2003

Partnership has become a central principle of European Union (EU) policies, particularly in relation to the structural funds. This article considers the diffusion of the partnership principle in the EU, focusing on Britain and Sweden. It is concerned with two questions. First, has the partnership principle led to a process of harmonisation across states or to national resistance? Second, to what extent has the partnership principle enhanced the legitimacy of EU decision making?

The evidence presented here suggests that though there has not been significant resistance to the partnership principle within Britain and Sweden, the EU’s requirements have been interpreted and implemented differently in the two states. Thus it is more appropriate to speak of ‘adaptation’ to partnership rather than ‘adoption’. This is explained by what we summarise as ‘national democratic traditions’.

In terms of democratic legitimacy, the Swedish adaptation to partnership was nominally more democratic in that local politicians were readily involved from the outset, whereas in Britain they were not. However, the importance of this inclusion should not be overstated in relation to substantive democratic legitimacy. The Swedish model was not supported by well‐articulated democratic strategies or principles. Despite the limitations of the Swedish model, recent developments suggest that Britain is following a similar path.
Labour Market Organisations’ Participation in Swedish Public Policy–Making
Authors: Svensson Torsten , Öberg PerOla
Published: March 2003

Unions and employers are political actors. Besides defending their interests on the labour market they act in the political arena. In order to weaken the trade unions, neoliberal parties and employers’ organisations have tried to change existing systems in Sweden and elsewhere. Hence, the general questions being asked in this article are: Do Swedish labour market organisations still participate in (i.e. try to influence) public policy–making on a large scale? Are there any substantial differences in the degree to which unions and employers’ organisations participate or in their access and strategies of participation? In this article it is argued that while participation of labour market organisations in the old institutionalised framework has decreased, it has not vanished. Labour market organisations are also very much involved in public policy–making by informally contacting politicians and public servants. The unions have extensive contacts with politicians on all levels, but especially with the Social Democratic Party, while employers’ organisations have more intense contacts with the public administration and public servants. The overall picture being presented in this article is that labour market organisations in Sweden have not at all been left out in the cold. It is clear that Sweden is far from the British situation and still remains similar to its Scandinavian neighbours.
Isolation Within Isolation: A Solitary Century of African‐American Vernacular English
Authors: Wolfram Walt , Hazen Kirk , Ruff Tamburro Jennifer
Published: March 2003

The nature of language diversity in small, isolated communities is considered by examining a unique sociolingustic situation in which a one African‐American family has resided for over 130 years on a small island community located off the Southeastern coast of the United States. The Anglo‐American community maintained a distinctive dialect due to their isolation from the mainland United States, while the sole African‐American family maintained a variety heavily influenced by African‐American Vernacular English. Although some assimilation to the surrounding Anglo‐American variety has taken place, a number of salient African‐American Vernacular English features are still used by the single African‐American resident of the island. At the same time, the most marked items of the Anglo‐American Outer Banks variety have not been assimilated, thus demonstrating the symbolic exclusion of the African‐American speaker from the Anglo community despite her life‐long residency.
Women, Language and Identity
Authors: Holmes Janet
Published: March 2003

This paper explores the ways in which women and men use language to mark gender boundaries, and to convey femininity and masculinity in the construction of a gendered identity. The first section of the paper examines evidence that language serves as a gender identity marker not only in the particular phonological variants used more by women than by men, but also in the wider stylistic range evident in women’s discourse in some communities. The gender distribution and social meanings associated with particular pragmatic particles and interactional devices provide another indication of the ways in which women and men construct and express femininity and masculinity in interaction. The final section analyses the construction of stereotypical gender identities through conversational interaction, firstly by means of a narrative and secondly through the carefully crafted dialogue of an advertisement. The paper demonstrates the complementary nature of macro‐level quantitative studies and qualitative ethnographic analysis in gender research.
Uses of Southern‐sounding speech by contemporary Texas women
Authors: Johnstone Barbara
Published: March 2003

Anglo‐Texas women typically do not think of themselves as Southerners, but many can use speech forms that came to Texas from the American South. The relationship of Texas women to Southern speech is complex, and Texas women orient to and use Southern forms in various ways. Several of the possibilities are briefly illustrated. These examples serve to raise questions about language crossing and stylization in contexts in which the variety being adopted does not clearly ‘belong’ to an outgroup, and to suggest some new avenues for thought about what ‘regional varieties’ are and how regionally‐marked speech forms can serve as rhetorical resources.