bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The Auctions of Swiss Government Bonds: Should the Treasury Price Discriminate or Not?
Authors: Heller Daniel , Lengwiler Yvan
Published: August 2019

Ever since Friedman's (1960) contribution, there has been an ongoing controversy about whether the Treasury should auction off its government debt with a discriminatory or with a uniform price format. Many industrialized countries, the United States or Germany, for instance, use discriminatory auctions, while Switzerland applies to uniform price rule. Using recent contributions to multi-unit auction theory, we analyze data on the bids submitted to Swiss Treasury bond auctions over the last three years. We then construct hypothetical bid functions that would occur under price discrimination. Based on these bid functions, we determine which auction format minimizes the government's costs of financing its debt.
The Economics of Small Business Finance: The Roles of Private Equity and Debt Markets in the Financial Growth Cycle
Authors: Berger Allen N. , Udell Gregory F.
Published: August 2019

We examine the economics of financing small business in private equity and debt markets. Firms are viewed through a financial growth cycle paradigm in which different capital structures are optimal at different points in the cycle. We show the sources of small business finance,and how capital structure varies with firm size and age. The interconnectedness of small firm finance is discussed along with the impact of the macroeconomic environment. We also analyze a number of research and policy issues, review the literature, and suggest topics for future research.
Part-Time Work and Industry Growth
Authors: Fallick Bruce
Published: August 2019

The impression that employment in the U.S. has become more part-time intensive may be driven by a tendency for faster-growing industries to use more part-time work. I document this association over 1983-1993, and demonstrate that it is robust to alternative measures. Similar relationships are discernable in several countries. However, the association does not emerge clearly in the U.S. until the 1980s. Moreover, both relative growth rates and relative part-time intensities of industries have changed markedly since 1940. Part-time work at fast-growing industries is not more likely to be involuntary, although this may be true for entering workers, nor is there a trend in that direction.
Stock Market Wealth and Consumer Spending
Authors: Starr-McCluer Martha
Published: August 2019

This paper investigates the effects of stock market wealth on consumer spending. Traditional macroeconometric models estimate that a dollar's increase in stock market wealth boosts consumer spending by 3-7 cents per year. With the substantial 1990s rise in stock prices, the nature and magnitude of this "wealth effect" have been much debated. After describing the issues and reviewing previous research, I present new evidence from the SRC Surveys of Consumers. The survey results are broadly consistent with lifecycle saving and a modest wealth effect: Most stockholders reported no appreciable effect of stock prices on their saving or spending, but many mentioned "retirement saving" in explaining their behavior.
The Effect of Stock Prices on the Demand for Money Market Mutual Funds
Authors: Dow James Price , Elmendorf Douglas W.
Published: August 2019

During the 1990s, households have sharply increased the share of their portfolios held in equities and mutual funds and sharply reduced the share held in bank accounts. We show that this reallocation has substantially increased the impact of financial-market developments on the demand for money. Specifically, both increases and decreases in the Wilshire 5000 have boosted the demand for money funds during the 1990s, although they had little effect on money funds during the 1980s. The estimated effects in the 1990s are generally statistically significant and economically important.
P* Revisited: Money-Based Inflation Forecasts with a Changing Equilibrium Velocity
Authors: Orphanides Athanasios , Porter Richard D.
Published: August 2019

This paper implements recursive techniques to estimate the equilibrium level of M2 velocity and to forecast inflation using the P* model. The recursive estimates of equilibrium velocity are obtained by applying regression trees and least squares methods to a standard representation of M2 demand, namely a model in which the velocity of M2 depends on the opportunity cost of holding M2 instruments. Equilibrium velocity is defined as the level of velocity that would be expected to obtain if deposit rates were at their long-run average (equilibrium) value. We simulate the alternative models to obtain real-time forecasts of inflation and evaluate the performance of the forecasts obtained from the alternative models. We find that while a $P^*$ model assuming a constant equilibrium velocity does not provide accurate inflation forecasts in the 1990s, a model based on our time-varying equilibrium velocity estimates does quite well.
Putty-Clay and Investment: A Business Cycle Analysis
Authors: Gilchrist Simon , Williams John C.
Published: August 2019

This paper develops a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with putty-clay technology that incorporates embodied technology, investment irreversibility, and variable capacity utilization. Low short-run capital-labor substitutability native to the putty-clay framework induces the putty-clay effect of a tight link between changes in capacity and movements in employment and output. As a result, persistent shocks to technology or factor prices generate business cycle dynamics absent in standard neoclassical models, including a prolonged hump-shaped response of hours, persistence in output growth, and positive comovement in the forecastable components of output and hours. Capacity constraints result in a nonlinear aggregate production function that implies asymmetric responses to large shocks with recessions steeper and deeper than expansions. Minimum distance estimation of a two-sector model that nests putty-clay and neoclassical production technologies supports a significant role for putty-clay capital in explaining business cycle and medium-run dynamics.
Uncertainty, Learning, and Gradual Monetary Policy
Authors: Sack Brian
Published: August 2019

This paper argues that interest-rate smoothing may be optimal when the effect of monetary policy is uncertain. A model is presented in which the Federal Reserve rationally learns about the policy multiplier by observing the reaction of the economy to recent choices of the interest rate. As a result of this learning process, the Fed faces greater uncertainty about the impact of its policy as it moves the interest rate away from its previous level. The optimal policy response to macroeconomic developments therefore involves gradual adjustment of the interest rate over a period of time during which the Fed is learning about the effect of its policy; consistent with the smoothness of interest rate movements found in estimated policy rules. The model also suggests that periods of active interest rate movements, by allowing the Fed to learn more effectively, may be followed by a more aggressive policy rule.
Certainty Equivalence and the Non-Vertical Long Run Phillips Curve
Authors: Lengwiler Yvan
Published: August 2019

The certainty equivalence principle states that only the mean of a random variable is relevant to a decision maker facing uncertainty. This principle considerably simplifies the application of the idea of rational expectations considerably. Yet, certainty equivalence does not in general apply outside of the special case of the quadratic objective function subject to linear constraints. I use the standard augmented Phillips Curve to demonstrate the significant effects that occur with the breakdown of certainty equivalence.
Bubbles or Noise? Reconciling the Results of Broad-Dividend Variance-Bounds Tests
Authors: TeSelle Garrett H.
Published: August 2019

Recent research indicates that results of variance-bounds tests of stock price volatility may depend on the definition of cash flows deemed relevant to shareholders: Tests using regular (or "narrow") dividends repeatedly have suggested that stock prices fluctuate more than can be explained by a simple present value hypothesis, while some tests using "broad dividends" (i.e., narrow dividends plus proceeds from share liquidations) do not detect such excess price volatility. Researchers disagree as to the cause and meaning of these differences. This paper derives and analyzes the broad-dividend version of the present value hypothesis to show that under common assumptions, these differences in variance-bounds tests have only two possible causes: Either narrow-dividend tests have rejected the present value hypothesis because of bubbles (either rational bubbles, or "empirical" bubbles as might be effected by dividend-smoothing or dividend-nonpayment); or broad-dividend tests simply have lacked power to detect mispricing. Using simulation and results from previous studies, this paper demonstrates that the second possible cause -- the lack of power in broad-dividend tests -- most likely explains the differences between narrow- and broad-dividend variance-bounds tests.
Monetary Policy Evaluation with Noisy Information
Authors: Orphanides Athanasios
Published: August 2019

This paper investigates the implications of noisy information regarding the measurement of economic activity for the evaluation of monetary policy. A common implicit assumption in such evaluations is that policymakers observe the current state of the economy promptly and accurately and can therefore adjust policy based on this information. However, in reality, decisions are made in real time when there is considerable uncertainty about the true state of affairs in the economy. Policy must be made with partial information. Using a simple model of the U.S. economy, I show that failing to account for the actual level of information noise in the historical data provides a seriously distorted picture of feasible macroeconomic outcomes and produces inefficient policy rules. Naive adoption of policies identified as efficient when such information noise is ignored results in macroeconomic performance worse than actual experience. When the noise content of the data is properly taken into account, policy reactions are cautious and less sensitive to the apparent imbalances in the unfiltered data. The resulting policy prescriptions reflect the recognition that excessively activist policy can increase rather than decrease economic instability.
On the Finite-Sample Accuracy of Nonparametric Resampling Algorithms for Economic Time Series
Authors: Berkowitz Jeremy , Birgean Ionel , Kilian Lutz
Published: August 2019

In recent years, there has been increasing interest in nonparametric bootstrap inference for economic time series. Nonparametric resampling techniques help protect against overly optimistic inference in time series models of unknown structure. They are particularly useful for evaluating the fit of dynamic economic models in terms of their spectra, impulse responses, and related statistics, because they do not require a correctly specified economic model. Notwithstanding the potential advantages of nonparametric bootstrap methods, their reliability in small samples is questionable. In this paper, we provide a benchmark for the relative accuracy of several nonparametric resampling algorithms based on ARMA representations of four macroeconomic time series. For each algorithm, we evaluate the effective coverage accuracy of impulse response and spectral density bootstrap confidence intervals for standard sample sizes. We find that the autoregressive sieve approach based on the encompassing model is most accurate. However, care must be exercised in selecting the lag order of the autoregressive approximation.
The Banking Industry and the Safety Net Subsidy
Authors: Lehnert Andreas , Passmore Wayne
Published: August 2019

Governments use monetary policies to counteract the effects of financial crises. In this paper we examine the subsidy that such "safety net" policies provide to the banking industry. Using a model of uncertainty-driven financial crises, we show that any monetary policy designed to maintain risky investment in the face of investor uncertainty (and thus promote economic growth and stability) will subsidize the banking industry. In addition, we show that the mere presence of a monetary authority willing to support a failing banking system in bad times subsidizes the banking industry, even if those bad times do not occur. A conditional bailout policy that does not extend equally to all financial institutions creates a greater subsidy for those institutions perceived as being "close" to the central bank, possibly giving these institutions a competitive advantage. Economic profits, in this model, are required to cover fixed costs of entry into the banking system.
Optimal Discretion
Authors: Lengwiler Yvan , Orphanides Athanasios
Published: August 2019

This paper investigates the desirability of adopting a rule in favor of discretionary monetary policy in a model exhibiting Kydland and Prescott's dynamic inconsistency problem. We deviate from earlier work by adopting assumptions regarding policymaker preferences and inflation dynamics that are compatible with empirically motivated models used for macroeconomic policy evaluation. In particular, we dispense with the notion of a fundamental incompatibility between the policymaker's price stability and full employment objectives and allow for stickiness in the determination of inflation. In this setting, we show that if discretion provides a policy flexibility benefit, adoption of a rule remains optimal but only under certain circumstances. If the central bank's preference to contain inflation is fully credible, then a rule is optimal only when inflation exceeds an endogenously determined threshold. This setup gives rise to a discretionary policy zone for inflation with the central bank taking more drastic action towards stabilizing inflation when inflation veers outside the zone. We also examine optimal policy when the central bank's inflation fighting determination is not fully credible. Then, adopting a rule becomes optimal even when inflation is lower. This result provides a reconciliation of the theory regarding the optimality of adopting a rule with the empirical observation that policymakers appear more willing to abandon discretion when facing either low credibility or high inflation but are less inclined to do so otherwise.
Oil and the Macroeconomy Revisited
Authors: Hooker Mark A.
Published: August 2019

The relationship between oil price shocks and U.S. macroeconomic fluctuations advocated by Hamilton (1983) broke down in the 1980s amidst a new regime of highly volatile oil price movements. Several authors have argued that asymmetric and nonlinear transformations of oil prices restore that relationship and thus that the economy responds asymmetrically and nonlinearly to oil price shocks. In this paper, I show that this is only part of the story: the two leading such transformations do not in fact Granger cause output or unemployment in the post-1980 period without further refinements, and they derive much of their apparent success from data in the 1950s. If output is expressed in year-over-year changes, which are smoother than the usual quarterly changes, and the equations exclude variables like interest rates and inflation, then asymmetric and nonlinear oil prices predict output but not unemployment, while the real level of oil prices predicts unemployment but not output. I interpret this evidence as supportive of significant oil price effects on the macroeconomy which a) are at relatively low frequencies, b) are indirect, through variables like interest rates and inflation, c) can induce departures from Okun's law, and d) changed qualitatively around 1980.
Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era
Authors: Reifschneider David , Williams John C.
Published: August 2019

The zero lower bound on nominal interest rates constrains the central bank's ability to stimulate the economy during downturns. We use the FRB/US model to quantify the effects of the bound on macroeconomic stabilization and to explore how policy can be designed to minimize these effects. During particularly severe contractions, open-market operations alone may be insufficient to restore equilibrium; some other stimulus is needed. Abstracting from such rare events, if policy follows the Taylor rule and targets a zero inflation rate, there is a significant increase in the variability of output but not inflation. However, a simple modification to the Taylor rule yields a dramatic reduction in the detrimental effects of the zero bound.
Do Noisy Data Exacerbate Cyclical Volatility?
Authors: Bomfim Antulio N.
Published: August 2019

How does the additional uncertainty associated with noisy economic data affect business cycle fluctuations? I use a simple variant of the neoclassical growth model to show that the answer depends crucially on the assumed expectation-formation capabilities of agents. Under efficient signal extracting, noisy economic indicators dampen cyclical volatility. The opposite occurs when agents follow a simple bounded rational strategy.
Measuring the Cyclicality of Real Wages: How Important is Aggregation Across Industries?
Authors: Swanson Eric T.
Published: August 2019

There is a growing consensus among economists that real wages in the postwar U.S. have been moderately to strongly procyclical, particularly in panel data on workers. From the point of view of hiring decisions of firms, however, this conclusion may be premature or even erroneous. Whether a firm's labor demand curve is stable or shifting at business cycle frequencies should be tested with a wage that is deflated by the firm's own price of output, with appropriate controls for the prices of intermediate inputs, and with respect to the cyclical state of the firm's own industry, as opposed to the state of the aggregate economy. I find that failing to control for these factors has led to a substantial procyclical bias in previous estimates of wage cyclicality. In two-digit and four-digit level (SIC) industry data on wages, with controls for changes in worker composition, I find that a substantial majority of sectors have paid real product wages that vary inversely (i.e., countercyclically) with the state of their industry.
Globalization of Financial Institutions: Evidence from Cross-Border Banking Performance
Authors: Berger Allen N. , DeYoung Robert , Genay Hesna , Udell Gregory F.
Published: August 2019

We address the causes, consequences, and implications of the cross-border consolidation of financial institutions by reviewing several hundred studies, providing comparative international data, and estimating cross-border banking efficiency in France, Germany, Spain, the U.K., and the U.S. during the 1990s. We find that, on average, domestic banks have higher profit efficiency than foreign banks. However, banks from at least one country (the U.S.) appear to operate with relatively high efficiency both at home and abroad. If these results continue to hold, they do not preclude successful international expansion by some financial firms, but they do suggest limits to global consolidation.
On Identification of Continuous Time Stochastic Processes
Authors: Berkowitz Jeremy
Published: August 2019

In this note we delineate conditions under which continuous time stochastic processes can be identified from discrete data. The identification problem is approached in a novel way. The distribution of the observed stochastic process is expressed as the underlying true distribution, f, transformed by some operator, T. Using a generalization of the Taylor series expansion, the transformed function T f can often be expressed as a linear combination of the original function f. By combining the information across a large number of such transformations, the original measurable function of interest can be recovered.
Generational Aspects of Medicare
Authors: Sheiner Louise , Cutler David M.
Published: August 2019

This paper examines the generational aspect of the current Medicare system and some stylized reforms. We find that the rates of return on Medicare for today's workers are higher than those for Social Security and that the Medicare system is shifting a greater share of the burden on future workers than is Social Security. Nonetheless, the rates of return on Medicare, using the Medicare Trustees assumptions, are still not that high--roughly 2 percent for today's youngest workers. But forecasting future Medicare expenditures is quite difficult. Under an alternative higher-cost baseline, which we consider plausible, rates of return for today's youngest workers will exceed 3 percent. Putting Medicare on a sustainable basis by raising the payroll tax or reducing benefits would greatly reduce the rate of return for today's workers. Under the Trustees assumptions, for example, the payroll tax would have to be increased by 2.0 percent of payroll to put the Medicare system in balance in perpetuity. This policy would reduce the rate of return on today's youngest workers to about 1.3 percent.
Activist Stabilization Policy and Inflation: The Taylor Rule in the 1970s
Authors: Orphanides Athanasios
Published: August 2019

A number of recent studies have suggested that activist stabilization policy rules responding to inflation and the output gap can attain simultaneously a low and stable rate of inflation as well as a high degree of economic stability. The foremost example of such a strategy is the policy rule proposed by Taylor (1993). In this paper, I demonstrate that the policy settings that would have been suggested by this rule during the 1970s, based on real-time data published by the U.S. Commerce Department, do not greatly differ from actual policy during this period. To the extent macroeconomic outcomes during this period are considered unfavorable, this raises questions regarding the usefulness of this strategy for monetary policy. To the extent the Taylor rule is believed to provide a reasonable guide to monetary policy, this finding raises questions regarding earlier critiques of monetary policy during the 1970s.
Have the Doors Opened Wider? Trends in Homeownership by Race and Income
Authors: Bostic Raphael W. , Surette Brian J.
Published: August 2019

Homeownership among U.S. families increased notably in recent years, from 63.9% in 1989 to 66.2% in 1998. This paper examines this trend and the factors contributing to it. We find that (1) homeownership has risen for all racial, ethnic, and income groups, (2) the differences in homeownership between minority and non-minority families and between middle- income and lower-income families declined significantly, and (3) changes in family-related characteristics explain homeownership trends among only the top two income quintiles. Among the lower two income quintiles, family-related characteristics explain almost none of the increase in homeownership. This pattern of results suggests that changes in mortgage and housing markets and changes in the regulations that govern those markets, such as CRA and HMDA, account for the increase in homeownership among lower-income families.
On Signal Extraction and Non-Certainty-Equivalence in Optimal Monetary Policy Rules
Authors: Swanson Eric T.
Published: August 2019

A standard result in the literature on monetary policy rules is that of certainty equivalence: given the expected values of all the state variables of the economy, policy should be set in a way that is independent of all higher moments of those variables. Some exceptions to this rule have been pointed out by Smets (1998), who restricts policy to respond to only a limited subset of state variables, and by Orphanides (1998), who restricts policy to respond to estimates of the state variables that are biased. In contrast, this paper studies unrestricted, fully optimal policy rules with optimal estimation of state variables. The rules in this framework exhibit certainty equivalence with respect to estimates of an unobserved, possibly complicated, state of the economy X, but are not certainty-equivalent when 1) a signal-extraction problem is involved in the estimation of X, and 2) the optimal rule is expressed as a reduced form that combines policymakers' estimation and policy-setting stages. In general, I show that it is optimal for policymakers to attenuate their reaction coefficient on a variable about which uncertainty has increased, while responding more aggressively to all other variables, about which uncertainty hasn't changed.
Did U.S. Bank Supervisors Get Tougher During the Credit Crunch? Did They Get Easier During the Banking Boom? Did It Matter to Bank Lending?
Authors: Berger Allen N. , Kyle Margaret K. , Scalise Joseph M.
Published: August 2019

We test three hypotheses regarding changes in supervisory "toughness" and their effects on bank lending. The data provide modest support for all three hypotheses that there was an increase in toughness during the credit crunch period (1989-1992), that there was a decline in toughness during the boom period (1993-1998), and that changes in toughness, if they occurred, affected bank lending. However, all of the measured effects are small, with 1% or less of loans receiving harsher or easier classification, about 3% of banks receiving better or worse CAMEL ratings, and bank lending being changed by 1% or less of assets.
Factor Supplies and Specialization in the World Economy
Authors: Harrigan James , Zakrajšek Egon
Published: August 2019

A core prediction of the Heckscher-Ohlin theory is that countries specialize in goods in which they have a comparative advantage, and that the source of comparative advantage is differences in relative factor supplies. To examine this theory, we use the most extensive dataset available and document the pattern of industrial specialization and factor endowment differences in a broad sample of rich and developing countries over a lengthy period (1970-92). Next, we develop an empirical model of specialization based on factor endowments, allowing for unmeasurable technological differences and estimate it using panel data techniques. In addition to estimating the effects of factor endowments, we also consider an alternative hypothesis that the level of aggregate productivity by itself can explain specialization. Our results clearly show the importance of factor endowments on specialization: relative endowments do matter.
Bankruptcy in General Equilibrium
Authors: Sabarwal Tarun
Published: August 2019

In this paper, I construct a model of an exchange economy in which bankruptcy arises in a manner similar to what we observe. This model is a more realistic representation of some markets in which intertemporal assets are traded. Using standard and natural assumptions, I show that every economy represented by this model has an equilibrium. Using examples, I highlight some welfare effects of bankruptcy.
The Flypaper Effect Unstuck: Evidence on Endogenous Grants from The Federal Highway Aid Program
Authors: Knight Brian
Published: August 2019

Contrary to simple theoretical predictions, previous empirical research has found that state government public spending is increased far more, often dollar-for-dollar, by federal grant receipts than by equivalent increases in constituent private income. This anomaly has come to be known as the flypaper effect. First, a legislative bargaining model developed in this paper provides a critique of this empirical finding. The model demonstrates a positive correlation between constituent preferences for public goods and intergovernmental grant receipts, and this correlation has likely biased the existing literature towards finding a flypaper effect. The model also motivates using measures of the political power of state congressional delegations as an instrument for grant receipts. Second, after correcting for the endogeneity of grant receipts, the results demonstrate that constituent private income and grants have similar effects on public spending.
Pre-Announcement Effects, News, and Volatility: Monetary Policy and the Stock Market
Authors: Bomfim Antulio N.
Published: August 2019

I examine pre-announcement and news effects on the stock market in the context of public disclosure of monetary policy decisions. The results suggest that the stock market tends to be relatively quiet--conditional volatility is abnormally low--on days preceding regularly scheduled policy announcements. Although this calming effect is routinely reported in anecdotal press accounts, it is statistically significant only over the past four to five years, a result that I attribute to changes in the Federal Reserve's disclosure practices in early 1994. The paper also looks at how the actual interest rate decisions of policy makers affect stock market volatility. The element of surprise in such decisions tends to boost stock market volatility significantly in the short run, and positive surprises--higher-than-expected values of the target federal funds rate--tend to have a larger effect on volatility than negative surprises. The implications of the results for broader issues in the finance literature are also discussed.
Optimal Portfolio Allocation in a World Without Treasury Securities
Authors: Bomfim Antulio N.
Published: August 2019

If current projections of future budget surpluses materialize, investing in Treasury securities--an asset class with which investors have long been familiar--could eventually become a thing of the past. In this paper, I examine the extent to which investors' portfolio allocation decisions are likely to be affected by the retirement of all federal government debt. The analysis suggests only small effects for most investors, especially, as is effectively the case for many institutional investors, when a no short sale constraint is in place. Under such circumstances, highly conservative investors--whose portfolios have risk-return characteristics akin to money market instruments--and very aggressive investors--who hold mostly equities--stand to be the least affected by the removal of Treasuries from the pool of investable assets. The analysis abstracts from indirect beneficial effects on investors from a Treasury debt payoff, such as the potential for greater productivity growth (and faster wealth accumulation) as more resources are freed up for investment in the private sector.
Investigating the Sources of Default Risk: Lessons from Empirically Evaluating Credit Risk Models
Authors: Bakshi Gurdip , Madan Dilip B. , Zhang Frank X.
Published: August 2019

From a credit risk perspective, little is known about the distress factors -- economy-wide or firm-specific -- that are important in explaining variations in defaultable coupon yields. This paper proposes and empirically tests a family of credit risk models. Empirically, we find that firm-specific distress factors play a role (beyond treasuries) in explaining defaultable coupon bond yields. Credit risk models that take into consideration leverage and book-to-market are found to reduce out-of-sample yield fitting errors (for the majority of firms). Moreover, the empirical evidence suggests that interest rate risk may be of first-order prominence for pricing and hedging. Measured by both out-of-sample pricing and hedging errors, the credit risk models perform relatively better for high grade bonds. Controlling for credit rating, the model performance is generally superior for longer maturity bonds compared to its shorter maturity counterparts. Using equity as an instrument reduces hedging errors. This paper provides an empirical investigation of credit risk models using observable economic factors.
Disentangling the Wealth Effect: A Cohort Analysis of Household Saving in the 1990s
Authors: Maki Dean M. , Palumbo Michael G.
Published: August 2019

In the U.S., household net worth rose substantially in the latter half of the 1990s and the personal saving rate dropped sharply. Researchers do not agree about just what behavior links these two events, or how to interpret the negative correlation between wealth and the saving rate over a longer time span. In this paper, we combine household-level data from the triennial Survey of Consumer Finances with quarterly, aggregate data from the Flow of Funds Accounts to estimate net worth and saving for different cohorts of households in the 1990s. We find that the groups of households whose balance sheets were boosted the most by surging equity prices were also the groups that substantially decreased their saving rates. Further, econometric analysis of these data produces propensities to consume out of wealth in the range of typical estimates obtained from aggregate data. Taken together, our results corroborate a direct view of the wealth effect on consumption.
Small Business Credit Availability and Relationship Lending: The Importance of Bank Organisational Structure
Authors: Berger Allen N. , Udell Gregory F.
Published: August 2019

This paper models the inner workings of relationship lending, the implications for bank organisational structure, and the effects of shocks to the economic environment on the availability of relationship credit to small businesses. Relationship lending depends on the accumulation over time by the loan officer of "soft" information. Because the loan officer is the repository of this soft information, agency problems are created throughout the organisation that may best be resolved by structuring the bank as a small, closely-held organisation with few managerial layers. The shocks analysed include technological innovations, regulatory regime shifts, banking industry consolidation, and monetary policy shocks.
To Surcharge or Not To Surcharge: An Empirical Investigation of ATM Pricing
Authors: Hannan Timothy H. , Kiser Elizabeth K. , Prager Robin A. , McAndrews James J.
Published: August 2019

This paper investigates depository institutions' decisions whether or not to impose surcharges (direct usage fees) on nondepositors who use their automated teller machines (ATMs). In addition to documenting patterns of surcharging, we examine motives for surcharging, including both direct generation of fee revenue and the potential to attract deposit customers who wish to avoid incurring surcharges at an institution's ATMs. Consistent with expectations, we find that the probability of surcharging increases with both the institution's share of market ATMs and the time since surcharging was first allowed in the state, and decreases with the local ATM density. Further, we find evidence consistent with the use of surcharges to attract deposit customers who are new to the local banking market, but find no evidence that larger banks use surcharges as a means to attract existing customers away from smaller local competitors.
Optimal Investment with Fixed Financing Costs
Authors: Cummins Jason G. , Nyman Ingmar
Published: August 2019

Case studies show that corporate managers seek financial independence to avoid interference by outside financiers. We incorporate this financial xenophobia as a fixed cost in a simple dynamic model of financing and investment. To avoid refinancing in the future, the firm alters its behavior depending on the extent of its financial xenophobia and the realization of a revenue shock. With a sufficiently adverse shock, the firm holds no liquidity. Otherwise, the firm precautionarily saves and holds both liquidity and external finance. Investment always responds to neoclassical fundamentals, but responds to cash flow only when the firm holds no liquidity.
The Effect of Monetary Policy on Monthly and Quarterly Stock Market Returns: Cross-Country Evidence and Sensitivity Analyses
Authors: Durham J. B.
Published: August 2019

Several studies report an empirical link between changes in monetary policy and short- as well as long-run stock market performance in the United States. Such findings are germane both to the study of market anomalies and to monetary policy transmission mechanisms. Previous univariate time-series results on long-run data, which use the discount rate as the main policy indicator, seem robust to alternative specifications of stock price returns given data on 16 countries from 1956 through 2000. However, out-of-sample tests indicate that the relation has largely decreased over time. Also, panel regressions, which notably include cross-sectional variance and therefore are particularly relevant to market participants, suggest that the relation is less sturdy, and consideration of excess as opposed to raw equity price returns in time-series regressions indicates no relation. Finally, alternative measures of central bank policy suggest a weaker and a diminished correlation between monetary policy changes and long-run stock market performance.
Estimating Changes in Trend Growth of Total Factor Productivity: Kalman and H-P Filters versus a Markov-Switching Framework
Authors: French Mark W.
Published: August 2019

Trend growth in total factor productivity (TFP) is unobserved; it is frequently assumed to evolve continuously over time. That assumption is inherent in the use of the Hodrick-Prescott or Bandpass filter to extract trend. Similarly, the Kalman filter/ unobserved-components approach assumes that changes in the trend growth rate are normally distributed. In fact, however, innovations to the trend growth rate of total factor productivity are far from normal. The distribution is fat-tailed, with large outliers in 1973. Allowing for these outliers, the estimated trend growth rate changes only infrequently. A nonlinear filtering approach is probably better suited to capturing the infrequent past and possible current shifts in trend growth of TFP. One such approach is the Markov-switching model, which is estimated and tested in this paper. The Markov- switching approach appears to have several advantages over repeated Andrews tests.
Sacrifice Ratios and Monetary Policy Credibility: Do Smaller Budget Deficits, Inflation-Indexed Debt, and Inflation Targets Lower Disinflation Costs?
Authors: Durham J. B.
Published: August 2019

A growing empirical literature addresses the determinants of the sacrifice ratio, an imperfect measure of the tradeoff between inflation and aggregate output. This study endeavors to advance previous studies in three ways. First, the literature does not satisfactorily examine key fiscal and monetary policy practices that arguably affect policymaking credibility. These include the stock (and flow) of government debt, the issuance of inflation-indexed bonds, and the existence of explicit inflation targets. Second, previous studies unfortunately exclude non-OECD countries. Third, the literature is divided with respect to research design, and therefore this study produces sensitivity analyses of previous results. Given these addenda, the results generally suggest that credibility proxies are largely sensitive to research design. However, some data do support the hypothesis that governments with an incentive, rather than perhaps a publicized objective, to lower inflation achieve lower sacrifice ratios.
Understanding Credit Derivatives and Their Potential to Synthesize Riskless Assets
Authors: Bomfim Antulio N.
Published: August 2019

The credit derivatives market is emerging as a potentially important new development that may help shape the overall financial markets in the years to come. In this paper, I provide a brief overview of the credit derivatives market and assess its future potential in the creation of private-sector instruments that are virtually free of default risk, and, thus, may be appealing to investors who currently favor the safety of U.S. Treasury securities.
Monetary Policy in a Changing World: Rising Role of Expectations and the Anticipation Effect
Authors: Demiralp Selva
Published: August 2019

The Federal Reserve (Fed) has maintained a general trend toward increased transparency and gradualism. This paper investigates the implications of these historical developments for the anticipation of monetary policy actions and adjustment of interest rates. In a theoretical framework, we establish the Fed's ability to manipulate overnight rates via an "anticipation" effect. The anticipation effect is defined as interest rate adjustments that take place prior to a policy announcement (or prior to when the complementary open market operations associated with that policy action take place) due to market's improved ability to predict future policy actions. Our empirical results document that most market rates adjust to anticipated policy actions prior to the actual announcement. Because the market responds to policy announcements instantly, the Trading Desk does not need to act immediately after the target change and can wait until the market incorporates the new information that comes with the policy announcement.
Who Benefits from a Bull Market? An Analysis of Employee Stock Option Grants and Stock Prices
Authors: Liang J. Nellie , Weisbenner Scott J.
Published: August 2019

Stock option grants to top executives and to employees below the top executive ranks have risen rapidly with stock prices in recent years. This paper examines the growth in stock option grants at S&P; 1500 companies between 1996 and 1999, and estimates the pay-for-performance sensitivities of the value of new option grants for top executives and, separately, for employees below the top executive levels. In our framework, options are a reward for past performance, leading to a positive relationship between firms' stock prices and the value of new option grants. We find substantial sensitivities for both sets of employees, but they are larger for employees below the top executive levels. Moreover, in contrast to top executives, the sensitivities for employees below the senior management levels do not differ by whether firm stock prices have risen or fallen. The greater sensitivity of option grant values to stock prices for employees below the top ranks is consistent with greater demand for options following price increases, and less willingness to accept options when past performance has been poor. We also find that new grants at larger firms are related to industry performance, consistent with more competitive markets for top executive talent to manage large organizations as industry conditions improve.
Risk-Based Capital Requirements for Mortgage Loans
Authors: Calem Paul S. , LaCour-Little Michael
Published: August 2019

We develop estimates of risk-based capital requirements for single-family mortgage loans held in portfolio by financial intermediaries. Our method relies on simulation of default and loss probability distributions via simulation of changes in economic variables with conditional default probabilities calibrated to recent actual mortgage loan performance data from the 1990s. Based on simulations with varying input parameters, we find that appropriate capital charges for credit risk vary substantially with loan or borrower characteristics and are generally below the current regulatory standard. These factors may help explain the high degree of securitization, or regulatory capital arbitrage, observed for this asset category.
Inflation and the Size of Government
Authors: Han Song , Mulligan Casey B.
Published: August 2019

It is commonly supposed in public and academic discourse that inflation and big government are related. We show that economic theory delivers such a prediction only in special cases. As an empirical matter, inflation is significantly positively related to the size of government mainly when periods of war and peace are compared. We find a weak positive peacetime time series correlation between inflation and the size of government and a negative cross-country correlation of inflation with non-defense spending.
The Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices
Authors: Rigobon Roberto , Sack Brian
Published: August 2019

Estimating the response of asset prices to changes in monetary policy is complicated by the endogeneity of policy decisions and the fact that both interest rates and asset prices react to numerous other variables. This paper develops a new estimator that is based on the heteroskedasticity that exists in high frequency data. We show that the response of asset prices to changes in monetary policy can be identified based on the increase in the variance of policy shocks that occurs on days of FOMC meetings and of the Chairman's semi-annual monetary policy testimony to Congress. The identification approach employed requires a much weaker set of assumptions than needed under the "event-study" approach that is typically used in this context. The results indicate that an increase in short-term interest rates results in a decline in stock prices and in an upward shift in the yield curve that becomes smaller at longer maturities.
The Cyclical Behavior of Short-Term and Long-Term Job Flows
Authors: Figura Andrew
Published: August 2019

Using a band pass filter, this paper estimates plant-level job flows at different frequencies and examines the characteristics of the high frequency (transitory) and low frequency (permanent) component flows. Because high frequency employment movements, which likely result in changes in the utilization of plant assets, and low frequency movements, which likely coincide with the restructuring of plant assets, result in different costs to the economy, understanding their separate behavior is important. High frequency plant-level employment fluctuations account for the majority of cyclical movements in aggregate manufacturing employment, but the temporal separation between job destruction and job creation is more pronounced for low frequency job flows, suggesting that permanent job flows reflect a more protracted employment adjustment process. To facilitate the evaluation of job flow models, many of which describe either transitory or permanent job flows, time series of job flows at different frequencies are presented in the appendix.
Why Are Semiconductor Prices Falling So Fast? Industry Estimates and Implications for Productivity Measurement
Authors: Aizcorbe Ana M.
Published: August 2019

By any measure, price deflators for semiconductors fell at a staggering pace over much of the last decade. These rapid declines are typically attributed to technological innovations that lower constant-quality manufacturing costs. But, given Intel's dominance in the microprocessor market, those price declines may also reflect changes in Intel's profit margins. Disaggregate data on Intel's operations are used to explore these issues. There are three basic findings. First, the industry data show that Intel's markups from its microprocessor segment shrank substantially from 1993-99. Second, about 3-1/2 percentage points of the average 24 percent price decline in a price index for Intel's chips can be attributed to declines in these profit margins over this period. And, finally, the data suggest that virtually all of the remaining price declines can be attributed to quality increases associated with product innovation.
The Rise in Lifetime Earnings Inequality Among Men
Authors: Aaronson Stephanie
Published: August 2019

Recent trends in lifetime earnings inequality in the United States have been barely explored, despite the fact that lifetime earnings are a better measure of access to resources than the more widely studied annual earnings. This paper demonstrates that lifetime earnings inequality has increased over the past 30 years. We first explore how starting wages and wage growth have changed over time and link the changes to trends in lifetime earnings and the lifetime skill-premium. We then calculated a broader measure of lifetime earnings inequality and show that since the late 1960s, lifetime earnings inequality has increased by a third. Between the late 1960s and mid-1970s a rise in within-education-group inequality more than accounts for the increase; since then the growth in between-education-group inequality accounted for a majority of the rise. These results are consonant with the data on starting wages and wage growth. Finally, we show that the increase in inequality has been largely driven by greater dispersion in hourly wages, although declining hours of work among low-education young men did play a role. The analysis uses data from the March Current Population Survey as well as matched CPS data. Thus we demonstrate how repeated cross-sections and short panels of data can be used to examine issues usually reserved for long panels.