bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The changing impact of white migration on the population compositions of origin and destination metropolitan areas
Authors: Frey William H.
Published: March 2007

Increased migration to the sunbelt and the metropolitan-nonmetropolitan “turnaround” represent departures from long-standing redistribution trends. Although these patterns have been examined from a number of perspectives, their consequences for individual metropolitan areas have not yet been brought to light. In the present study, stream-disaggregated data for the late 1950s and late 1960s are employed to assess the impact of recent migration on the sizes and compositions of white populations in thirty-one large metropolitan areas.

Most large northern SMSAs have been experiencing the “new” migration patterns since the late 1950s. They have incurred net out-movements of whites to both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. In their exchanges with nonmetropolitan areas, however, they have managed to retain greater numbers of college graduates and professional workers. Southern and western SMSAs did not sustain losses to nonmetropolitan areas during either period. They did appear to gain both total and high status population as a result of interregional metropolitan redistribution.
A new evaluation of United States census data on the extreme aged
Authors: Rosenwaike Ira
Published: March 2007

Population and mortality data for the extreme aged have generally been considered subject to a large degree of error, particularly for nonwhites. In this study, estimates of the United States population 85 years of age and over in 1960 are devised through a procedure known as the “method of extinct generations,” which permits the reconstruction of “extinct” population cohorts from a series of annual death statistics. Estimates of the total population by single year of age and of sex-color groups by five-year age groups are compared with the 1960 census. With some exceptions, the data for whites show remarkable correspondence; the tally for nonwhites developed from death records falls considerably short of the census count, indicating a greater overstatement of age in the latter source.
Changes in widowhood and divorce and expected durations of marriage
Authors: Goldman Noreen
Published: March 2007

A new interpretation of mathematical formulas developed by Keyfitz illustrates how the concept of entropy (H) can be applied to the analysis of marriage dissolution. The quantities H(divorce) and H(widowhood) indicate the changes in marriage duration which would result from small, constant changes in duration-specific divorce and widowhood rates, respectively. An examination of values for the United States, Nepal and Colombia illustrates the utility of H(i) in assessing the impact of changes in widowhood and divorce and clarifies the relationship between H and changes in life expectancy.
Achieving expected parities: A reanalysis of Freedman et al.’s data, 1962–1977
Authors: Sloane Douglas M. , Lee Che-Fu
Published: March 2007

A reanalysis of data included in a recent report by Freedman et al. (1980), using methods suggested by Goodman (1978), yields considerably different substantive conclusions than were arrived at by those earlier analysts. These differences clearly point out the hazards of descriptive analysis, especially of sample data which come in the form of contingency tables.
Women’s Sex Preferences in the United States: 1970 to 1975
Authors: Pebley Anne R. , Westoff Charles F.
Published: March 2007

This analysis examines the potential effect of sex preselection technology in the United States. The results suggest that controlling the sex of offspring is not the desire of most American women; that if it were employed, there would be a significant increase in sons as first-born and daughters as second children; that the overall sex ratio would be little changed from that occurring naturally except at very low fertility levels with universal use of such technology; and that fertility is only minimally influenced by gender preferences.
What will 1984 be like? Socioeconomic implications of recent twists in age structure
Authors: Easterlin Richard A.
Published: March 2007

Since 1940, under conditions of restricted immigration and high and sustained growth in aggregate demand, shifts in the relative number of younger versus older adults have had a pervasive impact on American life. Before 1960, younger males were in increasingly short supply and their relative economic position substantially improved; after 1960, the opposite was true. Since the early sixties, as the relative condition of young adults has deteriorated, marriage has been increasingly deferred and fertility reduced. The labor force participation of young women has risen at above average rates, and that of older women has risen at below average rates. Changes in the age structure of the working age population have also contributed to a combination of rising unemployment and accelerating inflation. Cohort divorce rates, suicide among young males, crime rates, and political alienation have worsened. The rise in college enrollment rates has been interrupted, and SAT scores have declined. In contrast, in the period 1940–1960, changes in these various magnitudes were typically of a more favorable sort. The United States is now at the start of a new period of growing scarcity of young adults as a result of the birth rate decline that set in after 1960. This implies that the 1980s will see a turnaround or amelioration in a wide variety of these social, political, and economic conditions, some of which have been taken as symptomatic of a hardening social malaise.
The relationship between apartment living and fertility for blacks, Mexican-Americans, and other Americans in Racine, Wisconsin
Authors: Curry James P. , Scriven Gayle D.
Published: March 2007

Recently published data from a sample of Bogotá, Colombia public housing residents show that apartment dwellers, but not house dwellers, reduced their fertility in a tight housing market. We propose that the utilitycost theory of fertility accounts for this finding, and, using this theory, we predict that (a) apartment residents will not decrease their fertility in an open housing market and (b) higher fertility will be associated with larger dwellings. Longitudinal data from a sample of Midwest urban blacks, Mexican Americans, and other Americans support both predictions. The substantive implications are discussed.
Age, biological factors, and socioeconomic determinants of fertility: A new measure of cumulative fertility for use in the empirical analysis of family size
Authors: Boulier Bryan , Rosenzweig Mark R.
Published: March 2007

To influence the number of children ever born to a woman, socioeconomic variables must operate through behavioral and biological mechanisms such as the age at marriage, the level of fertility in the absence of deliberate fertility control, and the level of control exerted to reduce fertility within marriage. In this paper, we propose a new measure of cumulative fertility which is standardized for the age-fecundity relationship and for exposure to the risk of conception associated with duration of marriage. A simple model of fertility behavior which incorporates some of the mechanisms through which socioeconomic factors may affect fertility is developed and applied to data from the United States to demonstrate the properties of alternative measures of family size. The results indicate that use of the new measure allows more precise estimates of socioeconomic fertility relationships than would be obtained with children ever born or by sample stratification.
Calculating life tables by estimating Chiang’s a from observed rates
Authors: Schoen Robert
Published: March 2007

A simple, accurate method of life table construction is advanced based upon a new way to estimate Chiang’s nax (the average number of years lived in the x to x + n age interval by those dying in the interval). The estimate for nax leads immediately to an expression for lx+n (the survivors to age x + n) in terms of lx and the known mortality rates for the interval x to x+n and the two adjacent intervals. The complete solution for the basic life table is given. The proposed method and five other easily applied methods are then compared against the standard provided by the U.S. life tables for 1969–1971. The results attest to the excellent performance and high degree of accuracy of the proposed method. Finally, extensions of the method to multiple decrement and associated single decrement life tables are briefly described.
Some roots of preference: Roles, activities and familial values
Authors: Coombs Lolagene C. , Freedman Ronald
Published: March 2007

This paper examines some of the connecting links between modernization in a developing society, particularly urbanization and increased education for women, and preferences for number of children. Using 1973 Taiwan data, preferences for smaller families are found to be consistently related to modern attitudes and behavior in the three domains examined: intrafamilial husband-wife role relationships, extrafamilial activities of the wife, and familial and religious values relating the family to the larger institutional setting. Modernization of these attitudes, behaviors, and values has an impact on reproductive goals independent of their association with structural variables. The wife’s outside activities and exposure to modern influences through the mass media are especially important linkages, having a particularly strong mediating effect in the education effect on preferences. Intrafamilial relations appear to be of less importance. Modernization of familial and religious values mediates between urbanization and family size preferences. The measure of preference used is a scale value which has been found in other research to be more predictive of reproductive behavior than the conventional single-valued statement of number of children wanted. As the level of contraceptive use rises in developing societies, family size preferences increasingly become a factor in birth rates, and understanding the sources of change in these preferences takes on added importance. The policy implications of these findings are discussed.
Determining the impact of sex preferences on fertility: A consideration of parity progression ratio, dominance, and stopping rule measures
Authors: McClelland Gary H.
Published: March 2007

The two methods commonly used to assess the effect of sex preferences on fertility are inadequate to the task. Parity progression ratio analyses suffer from logical problems stemming from the heterogeneity of sex preferences and the riskiness of fertility decisions. While conjoint measurement-dominance procedures overcome these logical problems, they cannot yield quantitative estimates of the impact of sex preferences on fertility. A stopping rule measure which overcomes these limitations is proposed and described and its potential for determining the effect of sex predetermination methods on population is discussed.
The earnings of men and remarriage
Authors: Wolf Wendy C. , MacDonald Maurice M.
Published: March 2007

Focusing on the effects of men’s earnings, this paper analyzes remarriage. Previous empirical research has not established what theoretical aspects of men’s earnings are important. Here, data for Wisconsin high school graduates that include male respondents’ Social Security earnings history are analyzed. The results indicate that absolute earnings, earnings instability, and earnings relative to peers have minimal effects on a man’s probability of remarriage, but that permanent income positively affects remarriage. However, studies of marital disruption often find permanent income is not as important as relative earnings measures. Concluding remarks speculate about the meaning of these contrasting findings for the economics of marriage.
Interrelationships between fertility and marital dissolution: Results of a simultaneous logit model
Authors: Koo Helen P. , Janowitz Barbara K.
Published: March 2007

Previous studies have failed to examine (a) the simultaneity of decisions to bear children and to dissolve a marriage and (b) the effects of the childbearing in the period just before dissolution on the likelihood of disruption. We attempted to resolve both problems by developing a simultaneous logit model of the interrelationship between the probability of separation and of having a birth during this period (when dissolution presumably is being considered). The model was estimated at successive durations of first marriage, using data for white women in the 1970 National Fertility Survey. The results indicate that childbearing patterns—number of children and age of youngest child at the beginning of the marital interval being studied and fertility during the interval—did not influence the likelihood of separation in simple or consistent ways over the marital life course, nor did marital strife (as indicated by separation) seem to affect childbearing throughout marriage.
Industrial shifts, female employment, and occupational differentiation: a dynamic model for American cities, 1960–1970
Authors: Semyonov Moshe , Scott Richard Ira
Published: March 2007

Sex-linked occupational differentiation has been seen as influenced by both the industrial structure of the economy and the sex composition of the labor force. Here, with a sample of 70 SMSAs, it was found (a) that the odds of men relative to women of joining professional and managerial occupations increased between 1960 and 1970, and (b) that this increase was dependent on the growth of tertiary industries and the greater number of women joining the cash economy. The observed effect of industrial shifts on sex-occupational differentiation, however, is argued to be a spurious consequence of the gender-composition of the work force. Specifically, the development of tertiary industries generates greater demand for female labor. Intensive recruitment of women to the labor force in turn increases occupational differentiation because females, in sex-typed labor markets, are likely to be channeled in disproportionate numbers away from upper-status occupations. The findings demonstrate that traditional modernization theory is unable to account for this. However, the results lend support to expectations derived from a labor market sex-segmentation approach.
Weather, nutrition, and the economy: Short-run fluctuations in births, deaths, and marriages, France 1740–1909
Authors: Richards Toni
Published: March 2007

This paper analyzes short-run fluctuations in national time series of vital events for France in the period 1740 to 1909. Fertility, mortality, and nuptiality form a simultaneous system which interacts with economic and meteorological conditions. In the short run, the demographic variables are endogenous. Economic and meteorological conditions are exogenous. Our indicator of economic conditions is the price of wheat, the principal food crop. Biometric models of fertility and empirical research on the biologically-based interrelations of fertility and mortality provide insight into the expected timing of events. We combine these results with empirical research on the effects of nutrition on fertility and mortality, research in medical biometeorology, and French historical demograhic and economic research to formulate our model. The resultant distributed lag system is estimated. We find that the economic/nutritional effects are more likely to be statistically significant in predicting the time path of vital events than are the demographic variables or the effects of meteorological conditions.
Population estimates from longitudinal records in otherwise data-deficient settings
Authors: Anderton Douglas L. , Conaty Joseph , Pullum Thomas W.
Published: March 2007

Existing methods for estimating population parameters in settings of data deficiency do not provide techniques for analysis of commonly available longitudinal data. In settings where complete population data is unavailable, longitudinal data recorded for only a subset of the total population are often available (e.g., event registers, genealogies). In this article we present and evaluate models which derive population parameters for the population subgroup underlying such longitudinal data. Using the distribution of individual times until first recorded event within a measurement interval, population parameters are estimated which provide basic denominator data for analyzing event occurrence. The models which we derive are especially suited to records which may include migration and population growth trends. The use of the models is demonstrated and evaluated through an application to genealogical records for a nineteenth-century population. Possible extensions of these models and their major limitations are also discussed.
Preference for Sons, Family Size, and Sex Ratio: An Empirical Study in Korea
Authors: Park Chai Bin
Published: March 2007

This study investigates the effects of son preference on sex ratio and fertility at the family level, utilizing World Fertility Survey data for Korea, whose population is known to have a strong preference for sons and a fairly high level of contraceptive use. The sex ratio (number of males per 100 females) of siblings in small families is considerably higher than in large families. The sex ratio of last-born children in families of any size is markedly higher than that of the previous children. The sex distribution of children for a given family size, if less than five, deviates significantly from the Bernoulli sequence. The observed frequency of all-girl families is especially small in comparison with the expected value. The sex of the last child strongly influences couples’ decision making regarding additional births in all steps of family building except for bearing a second child. In increasing their families to moderate size, parents appear to take into consideration the sex distribution of all earlier births.
Assesssing Cohort Birth Expectations Data from the Current Population Survey, 1971–1981
Authors: O’Connell Martin , Rogers Carolyn C.
Published: March 2007

Data from the fertility supplements to the Current Population Survey from 1971 to 1981 indicate that in the aggregate, the lifetime birth expectations of married women 18 to 39 years old in 1971 will closely approximate their completed cohort fertility. During this period, the youngest group of women, 18 to 24 years old, delayed their childbearing; their short-term expectations (1971–76) were not realized, but they made up enough births in the latter half of the decade to enable them to attain their lifetime birth expectations. In retrospect, the “failure” of birth expectations data to predict the “period” fertility downswing in the 1970s resulted not from poor predictions of married women, but rather from unanticipated marital and subsequent childbearing patterns of women who were single at the beginning of the decade. The authors conclude that birth expectations are useful predictors of completed cohort fertility, if adjustments are made to incorporate changes in the proportions married within the birth cohort.
A Note on Maritally-Disrupted Men’s Reports of Child Support in the June 1980 Current Population Survey
Authors: Cherlin Andrew , Griffith Jeanne , McCarthy James
Published: March 2007

Data from the June 1980 Current Population Survey on fathers’ reported provision offinancial support to children from previous marriages living elsewhere is compared to previously published tabulations from the April 1979 CPS of women’s receipt of child support payments. The comparison indicates that the number of men with children from previous marriages living elsewhere is substantially underreported in the June 1980 CPS. Because of the apparent underreporting, the data on the provision of financial support should be interpreted with caution.
Mother or Market? Effects of Maternal Employment on the Intellectual Ability of 4-Year-Old Children
Authors: Desai Sonalde , Chase-Lansdale P. Lindsay , Michael Robert T.
Published: March 2007

This article uses the 1986 Children of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth data set to investigate the impact of maternal employment on children's intellectual ability, as measured at the age of 4 by using the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test (PPVT). Results from multivariate regression analysis show a statistically significant adverse effect of mother's employment on children's intellectual ability, but only for boys in higher income families. Furthermore, the negative impact was related to the timing of maternal employment: employment during the boys' infancy had a statistically significant negative effect on PPVT scores at the age of 4. This pattern was not found for girls, for children in low-income families, or for families in which mothers resumed their employment after the child's first year of life. The impact of other demographic trends in recent years—declining fertility and rising marital instability—are also investigated. The results show an adverse effect of the presence of other siblings on children's PPVT scores; but holding family income constant, the effect of the parents' marital status on children's intellectual ability is not statistically significant. In addition, several family background factors are highly correlated with children's test scores.
The Antecedents of Teenage Fatherhood
Authors: Hanson Sandra L. , Morrison Donna Ruane , Ginsburg Alan L.
Published: March 2007

The High School and Beyond Survey was used to describe young men who are at risk of becoming teenage fathers and examine the causal process leading to early fathering for young men. Bivariate results show that men who are at risk of fathering children at a young age have unique attitudes and family, school, and dating experiences. Multivariate analyses suggest that the most cogent factors affecting teenage fathering include being black, going steady, and having unorthodox views about parenting outside of marriage.
Forecasting Mortality: A Parameterized Time Series Approach
Authors: McNown Robert , Rogers Andrei
Published: March 2007

This article links parameterized model mortality schedules with time series methods to develop forecasts of U.S. mortality to the year 2000. The use of model mortality schedules permits a relatively concise representation of the history of mortality by age and sex from 1900 to 1985, and the use of modern time series methods to extend this history forward to the end of this century allows for a flexible modeling of trend and the accommodation of changes in long-run mortality patterns. This pilot study demonstrates that the proposed procedure produces medium-range forecasts of mortality that meet the standard tests of accuracy in forecast evaluation and that are sensible when evaluated against the comparable forecasts produced by the Social Security Administration.
Demographic Conditions Responsible for Population Aging
Authors: Preston Samuel H. , Himes Christine , Eggers Mitchell
Published: March 2007

This article develops and applies two expressions for the rate of change of a population's mean age. In one, aging is shown to be negatively related to contemporary birth rates and death rates. In a general sense, aging occurs when vital rates are too low, as illustrated through applications to the United States, the Netherlands, and Japan. The other expression relates the rate of aging to a population's demographic history, in particular to changes in mortality, migration, and the annual number of births. Applications to the United States and Sweden show that the dominant factor in current aging in these countries is a history of declining mortality. Migration also contributes significantly but in opposite directions in the two countries. The two approaches are integrated after recognizing that the rate of change in the mean age is equal to the covariance between age and age-specific growth rates. A decomposition of this co-variance shows that the two seemingly unrelated expressions contain exactly the same information about the age pattern of growth rates.
Child care for preschoolers: Differences by child’s age
Authors: Leibowitz Arleen , Waite Linda J. , Witsberger Christina
Published: March 2007

Because of the high rates of employment of mothers, a large and increasing number of preschool children receive regular care from someone else. This article develops and tests hypotheses about the choice of child care arrangements for younger and older preschool children, using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Young Women. We argue that appropriate care depends on the age of the child. It includes care by the mother or a paid provider in the child’s home for children aged 0–2 and mother care and nursery school or center care for those 3–5. We estimate models of the mother’s employment and choice of child care separately for younger and older preschoolers. Our results show that need for care, presence of substitutes for the mother, financial resources, and preferences all affect both full-time care by the mother and the type of child care chosen by working women, although they affect these two decisions in different ways.
Educational attainment of children from single-parent families: Differences by exposure, gender, and race
Authors: Krein Sheila Fitzgerald , Beller Andrea H.
Published: March 2007

This article examines the effect of living in a single-parent family on educational attainment by gender and race. According to household production theory, the reduction in parental resources for human capital investment in children living in a single-parent family should lower their educational attainment. Using matched mother-daughter and mother-son samples from the National Longitudinal Surveys, we constructed precise measures of the age and length of time a child lived in a single-parent family. Empirical findings show that the negative effect of living in a single-parent family (I) increases with the number of years spent in this type of family, (2) is greatest during the preschool years, and (3) is larger for boys than girls.
Thinking about change in illegitimacy ratios: United States, 1963–1983
Authors: Smith Herbert L. , Cutright Phillips
Published: March 2007

What has been the recent trend in illegitimacy in the United States? The answer depends on what is being measured. If the focus is on illegitimacy rates, then the trend is mixed. Illegitimacy ratios, however, have been skyrocketing. We show that this is primarily the result of declining nuptiaIity (and rising marital dissolution) and secondarily the result of decreases in marital fertility. We argue that the illegitimacy ratio is the better index of the social consequences of out-of-wedlock childbearing and that the high ratios of recent decades are unlikely to abate in the foreseeable future.
Inherited frailty and longevity
Authors: Vaupel James W.
Published: March 2007

The lifespansof parents and children appearonly weakly related,even though parents affect their children’s longevity through both genetic and environmental influences. These influences can be summarizedas a correlation betweenparents’and children’s frailty. It isshownthat even ifchildren perfectly inherit their frailty from their parents, parents’ life spans explain little of the variance in children’s life spans, because the variance in life expectancies among people with different frailties is small compared with the variancein life spansamongpeopleat the same leveloffrailty. Byinterpreting frailty as a relative risk in a proportional-hazard model, longevity as a duration or waiting time, and inheritance as an invariance in relative risk over time, one can extend this result to repeatable events involving fertility, migration, marriage, unemployment, and so forth.
Reliability of retrospective survey data on infant feeding
Authors: Haaga John G.
Published: March 2007

This article examines retest reliability and digit preference in retrospective survey data on breastfeeding duration and type of supplementary food, covering three decades and reported by more than 1200 Malaysian women. Women with little or no education, rural residents, and those of Malay ethnicity are found to give less reliable data. In a logistic regression analysis, these respondent characteristics are more important determinants of data quality than the length of the recall period.
Cohabitation and marriage in the 1980s
Authors: Thornton Arland
Published: March 2007

Using cohabitation and marriage histories collected in 1985 from 23-year-old women and men, this study investigates the process of union formation, considering transitions from single life into cohabitation and marriage. The outcomes of cohabitation are also considered—both the dissolution of unions and the transformation of cohabiting unions into marriage. These data indicate that large proportions of men and women experience cohabitation fairly early in the life course. At the same time, many cohabiting unions are dissolved fairly quickly and numerous others are soon transformed into marriages. Thus even though cohabitation will be experienced by many, most people will continue to spend substantially more time in marital unions than in cohabiting unions.
Patterns of neighborhood transition in a multiethnic world: U.S. Metropolitan areas, 1970–1980
Authors: Denton Nancy A. , Massey Douglas S.
Published: March 2007

Ethnic diversity within metropolitan neighborhoods increased during the 1970s, and all-white tracts became less common. The simple presence of a minority group did not precipitate turnover, but as the minority proportion rose, the probability of racial and ethnic transition increased. Tracts with multiple groups became much more common during the decade and were especially prone to transition. Distinctively, black neighborhoods displayed a bipolar clustering at both ends of the distribution of minority presence. Multivariate models showed that white loss was increased by the presence of multiple minority groups, by a higher minority proportion, and by location near existing minority areas.
Trends and determinants of contraceptive use in Kenya
Authors: Njogu Wamucii
Published: March 2007

This study uses the 1977-1978 Kenya Fertility Survey and the 1989 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey to examine trends and determinants of contraceptive use in Kenya. A substantial increase in contraceptive use occurred in Kenya over the decade. Yet although the increase was shared by all groups in the country, the amount of change differed greatly. A regression decomposition procedure revealed that shifts in population composition — that is, an increase in better educated women and in the proportion of women who want to cease childbearing — were the primary sources of aggregate change in contraceptive use.
Self-employment and providing child care
Authors: Connelly Rachel
Published: March 2007

This paper considers self-employment and providing child care as occupational strategies that can lower the cost of child care. If the ability to care for one’s own children while engaged in market work is important to mothers with young children, we predict that women with young children will be more likely to choose to be self-employed or to be a child care provider than women without young children. The analysis provides strong support for this hypothesis, The results show that the presence of young children is an important factor in choosing self-employment and in choosing to be a child care provider. Finally, simulations are presented which show that a woman’s choice among these sectors is quite sensitive to the number and ages of her young children.
Intergenerational patterns of teenage fertility
Authors: Kahn Joan R. , Anderson Kay E.
Published: March 2007

One of the frequently cited consequences of teen childbearing is the repetition of early births across generations, which thereby perpetuates a cycle of poverty and disadvantage. We use data from the 1988 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG), Cycle IV, to examine trends and determinants of the intergenerational teen fertility link for women who reached adolescence between the 1950s and the 1980s. We find that daughters of both white and black teen mothers face significantly higher risks of teen childbearing than daughters of older mothers. We also find, more generally, that patterns of teenage family formation (i.e., both marriage and childbearing behaviors) tend to be repeated intergenerationally. The results suggest that the intrafamily propensity for early childbearing is not inherited biologically, at least not through factors related to the timing of puberty. Rather, the intergenerational patterns appear to operate at least in part through the socioeconomic and family context in which children grow up.
Underreporting of abortion in surveys of U.S. women: 1976 to 1988
Authors: Jones Elise F. , Forrest Jacqueline Darroch
Published: March 2007

Although research on reproductive behavior depends heavily on information from surveys, abortions are characteristically underreported in such data. Estimates of the level of reporting are made for each of the recent major surveys of U.S. women: the 1976, 1982, and 1988 cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth, the 1976 and 1979 National Surveys of Young Women, and the National Longitudinal Surveys of Work Experience of Youth. The estimates are based on comparisons with external counts of abortions taking place. We examine variation by characteristics of women, trends over time, and the possible effects of length of recall and of the way in which questions about abortion are asked. Abortion reporting is found to be highly deficient in all the surveys, although the level varies widely. Whites are more likely to report their abortions than nonwhites. Special, confidential questioning procedures hold promise for improving the results.
The Origins of the Chinese Fertility Decline
Authors: Lavely William , Freedman Ronald
Published: March 2007

Education and urbanization are shown to have been negatively correlated to marital fertility in both urban and rural China prior to the initiation of the substantial family planning programs. We maintain that early use of contraception by better educated and urban strata is a plausible cause of the observed fertility differentials because other proximate variables are unlikely. Coale’s m, a presumed indicator of controlled fertility, suggests early fertility control in urban and better educated strata. The apparent preprogram beginnings of fertility control among educational and urban elites does not, however, minimize the awesome effects on fertility of the powerful Chinese family planning programs, once begun.
Maternal Education and Child Immunization
Authors: Streatfield Kim , Singarimbun Masri , Diamond Ian
Published: March 2007

This article explores the hypothesis that formal education of women results in increased child survival because of greater knowledge of the protective function of the major childhood immunizations. Education is also associated with greater awareness of proper immunization schedules. Irrespective of mother’s formal education level, specific immunization knowledge is associated with an increased likelihood of using immunization. The Indonesian analysis is important as a model for preventive health campaigns among other populations with low education levels among women.
Seasonal fertility cycles in rural Egypt: Behavioral and biological linkages
Authors: Levy Victor
Published: March 2007

The annual birth cycle in rural Egypt peaks in December and has two distinguishable minima in June and September. This pattern bears a striking inverse resemblance to the seasonal movements of employment and wages. Infant and child mortality and marriage also display stable, though different seasonal patterns. The paper explores whether the correlation between labor demand, mortality events and fertility reflect some causal behavioral relationship. It is shown that the probability of a birth is lower in months with high opportunity cost of time. Direct replacement is a significant phenomenon in rural Egypt and it occurs fairly quickly.
Dynamic flow modeling with interregional dependency effects: an application to structural change in the U.S. migration system
Authors: Plane David A. , Rogerson Peter A.
Published: March 2007

Causative matrix methods can be used to project levels of population change, to monitor changing migration trends, and to aid in forecasting movement during periods of consolidation and dissipation. They are appealing because they provide measures of the changing strengths of all interregional dependency effects. Separate competing destinations and competing origins perspectives on temporal change can be obtained. The column sums and the eigenvalues provide useful aggregate gauges of the relative strengths of regional shifts. Patterns of U.S. interregional migration from 1935 to 1982 are examined using the causative matrix approach. Trends in the gross migration streams underlying the dramatic increase in core-periphery net migration taking place in the 1970s are examined, as is a more recent shift in the major source area of core region net outflow.
Population forecasts and confidence intervals for sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches
Authors: Cohen Joel E.
Published: March 2007

This paper compares several methods of generating confidence intervals for forecasts of population size. Two rest on a demographic model for age-structured populations with stochastic fluctuations in vital rates. Two rest on empirical analyses of past forecasts of population sizes of Sweden at five-year intervals from 1780 to 1980 inclusive. Confidence intervals produced by the different methods vary substantially. The relative sizes differ in the various historical periods. The narrowest intervals offer a lower bound on uncertainty about the future. Procedures for estimating a range of confidence intervals are tentatively recommended. A major lesson is that finitely many observations of the past and incomplete theoretical understanding of the present and future can justify at best a range of confidence intervals for population projections. Uncertainty attaches not only to the point forecasts of future population, but also to the estimates of those forecasts’ uncertainty.
Recent Trends in the Timing of First Births in the United States
Authors: Chen Renbao , Morgan S. Philip
Published: March 2007

We use vital registration data published since 1979 to update trends in the timing of first births. Two important trends are documented. First, the likelihood that childless women over age 30 will have a first birth has increased since the 1970s. This change shows that women born in the 1950s are “catching up” on fertility postponed at younger ages. Second, racial differences in the timing of first births are very large. For those born in the 1950s, nonwhites have first births much earlier, and far fewer nonwhite than white women will remain permanently childless. In the second part of the paper, we use these data for recent years to assess earlier projections of childlessness based on cohort and period approaches. We also assess the accuracy of stated intentions to have no children.
Patterns of Entry into Cohabitation and Marriage Among Mainland Puerto Rican Women
Authors: Landale Nancy S. , Forste Renata
Published: March 2007

This paper adds to our limited knowledge of racial and ethnic variation in union formation by describing and analyzing the first unions of mainland Puerto Rican women. Retrospective history data show that Puerto Ricans have shared in the post-l970 shift toward cohabitation. Puerto Rican women, however, are much more likely to enter informal first unions than the general population, and have a low propensity to transform informal unions into legal marriages. The paper examines the influence of family background and current activities on union timing and type. The relationship between partner attributes and the choice between formal and informal coupling is also considered.
Family reunification and the immigration multiplier: U.S. immigration law, origin-country conditions, and the reproduction of immigrants
Authors: Jasso Guillermina , Rosenzweig Mark R.
Published: March 2007

This paper reports estimates of the total numbers of actual legal immigrants to the United States that result from the family reunification provisions of U.S. immigration law. These immigration multipliers are estimated separately for major visa categories and by gender and are obtained in the context of an analysis of how individual characteristics of immigrants and their origin country conditions affect (a) the decision to migrate to the United States and (b) once admitted, their propensity to remain and to become U.S. citizens. The analyses combine longitudinal data on the 1971 cohort of legal immigrants and data from the 1970 Census Public Use Tapes. The results suggest that the actual multipliers differ importantly by visa category and that they are substantially lower than the potential multipliers and lower as well than previously supposed.
Swedish-finnish return migration, extent, timing, and information flows
Authors: Kirwan Frank , Harrigan Frank
Published: March 2007

This paper performs two tasks. It first describes the return migration behavior of Finnish immigrants to Sweden over the period 1968–1976 as revealed by the Swedish population register. The volume of return migration is considerable but varies by age and sex. Second, we examine the sensitivity of return migration to economic conditions at both destination and origin. The model proposed allows the relative weights attached to information on the two locations to vary as the interval of absence lengthens. Econometric evidence indicates that conditions at the original location appear to exert increasing influence on the decision to return the longer the interval of absence.
The effect of marital status at first birth on marital dissolution among adolescent mothers
Authors: Billy John O. G. , Landale Nancy S. , McLaughlin Steven D.
Published: March 2007

The effect of the sequencing of marriage and first birth on marital dissolution among adolescent mothers is investigated. We compare three groups who had a first live birth before age 20: those married before becoming pregnant, those married between conception and birth, and those who did not marry before the birth. The analysis demonstrates that teenage mothers are less likely to experience a separation if they marry before rather than after the birth. Among those marrying before the birth, there is little difference between those who marry before or after becoming pregnant. The effects of marital status at first birth are shown to vary by race, marital duration, and historical time.
Contraceptive sterilization in Puerto Rico
Authors: Warren Charles W. , Westoff Charles F. , Herold Joan M. , Rochat Roger W. , Smith Jack C.
Published: March 2007

For twenty years Puerto Rico has had the world’s highest prevalence of sterilization. From the 1982 Puerto Rico Fertility and Family Planning Assessment we examine whether the probability of obtaining sterilization is changing and what impact sterilization has on fertility, finding that the use of contraceptive sterilization has not declined and will probably continue to increase in Puerto Rico. Nonuse rather than temporary methods of contraception is the second most likely circumstance after sterilization. We also find that sterilization has reduced the total marital fertility rate by over 33 percent, thus having a significant effect on reducing the rate of natural increase; by all indications, it will have a greater effect in the future.
Factors in the Resolution of Adolescent Premarital Pregnancies
Authors: Cooksey Elizabeth C.
Published: March 2007

This article examines the effect of family background factors on first premarital pregnancy resolution for adolescents in the United States. Teenage fertility constitutes a sizable percentage of total fertility, and each outcome has a potentially different type of family structure associated with it. Not only are there marked racial/ethnic differences in the ways such pregnancies are resolved, but the effects of family structure, age at first conception, family size, and working mother also differ between blacks, whites, and Hispanics. Parental education is a highly significant predictor for all groups: the higher the level of education, the less likely the pregnancy will be carried to term.
Household Headship Among Unmarried Persons in the United States, 1970–1985
Authors: Santi Lawrence L.
Published: March 2007

Recent trends in rates of household headship and headship differentials by sex and color are examined within the context of a model that expresses the likelihood of heading an independent household as a function of age, marital status, parental status, and individual money income. The parameters of this model are consistent with predictions derived from a “life-course” perspective and are stable across period, sex, and color. Nonetheless, residual effects of period, sex, and color persist even after the independent variables are taken into account.
Mortality Differentials by Marital Status: An International Comparison
Authors: Hu Yuanreng , Goldman Noreen
Published: March 2007

Although the greater longevity of married people as compared with unmarried persons has been demonstrated repeatedly, there have been very few studies of a comparative nature. We use log-linear rate models to analyze marital-status-specific death rates for a large number of developed countries. The results indicate that divorced persons, especially divorced men, have the highest death rates among the unmarried groups of the respective genders; the excess mortality of unmarried persons relative to the married has been generally increasing over the past two to three decades; and divorced and widowed persons in their twenties and thirties have particularly high risks of dying, relative to married persons of the same age. In addition, the analysis suggests that a selection process is operating with regard to single and divorced persons: the smaller the proportion of persons who never marry or who are divorced, the higher the resulting death rates.
Age-Specific Death Rates With Tobacco Smoking and Occupational Activity: Sensitivity to Sample Length, Functional Form, and Unobserved Frailty
Authors: Behrman Jere R. , Sickles Robin C. , Taubman Paul
Published: March 2007

In this article, we estimate accelerated time-to-failure and proportional-hazard functions with about 100,000 members of the Dorn sample, finding greater hazards associated with smoking and some dependence on occupational variables that measure risk and physical activity. We answer three questions: (1) How sensitive are the estimates to sample length, using monthly data for the periods 1954–1969 and 1954–1980? The results differ somewhat between these sample periods. (2) How sensitive are the estimates to alternative functions for the hazard? Within a given time period, the estimates are fairly robust to specification changes in the distribution of the hazard in the accelerated time-to-failure models. (3) How sensitive are the estimates to alternative controls for unobserved frailty? Within a given sample period, the estimates are fairly robust to the allowance for parametric or nonparametric heterogeneity in the proportional-hazard models.
Racial and Ethnic Differences in U.S. Census Omission Rates
Authors: Fein David J.
Published: March 2007

This article assesses differences in rates of omission across seven race-ethnicity groups in the 1980 census to learn more about the social factors that condition census enumeration. Findings indicate that there are multiple sources of error, that these sources reflect distinctive ethnic attributes to a greater degree than shared minority status, and that census omissions have both inadvertent and motivational causes. The discussion notes some of the implications for improving coverage in future censuses.