bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
A quantitative study of the determinants of fertility behavior
Authors: Friedlander Stanley , Silver Morris
Published: March 2007

Recent literature shows great interest in the quantitative study of the determinants of fertility. In a similar way, this study takes an across-country approach to specify independent variables, to separate economic from social and political variables, to make distinct comparisons of fertility responses in developed and underdeveloped countries, and to examine a wide range of hypotheses. The key is empirical analysis by separate regressions. This permits direct comparisons of countries at different levels of development, increases the probability of obtaining statistically significant regression coefficients, and standardizes the analysis for factors which vary with level of development.

In this way, the authors determine positive and statistically significant relations between fertility and illiteracy, child mortality, proportion of agricultural population, proportion of nonfarm selfemployment, and overcrowded housing and show a negative significant relationship between fertility and communism. The study does not establish statistically significant relations, however, for population density, social mobility, substitutes for sexual intercourse, achievement motivation, protein in the diet, and religion.

In general, the signs of the regression coefficients for the separate levels of development are the same as those for all countries combined. Any failure to attain statistical significance may be explained by small sample size and insufficient variation in the variables for separate levels of development.
Educational efforts in the implementation of rural family planning programs in East Pakistan
Authors: Gustafson Harold C. , Croley H. T. , Griffiths William , Roberts Beryl J.
Published: March 2007

The pilot family planning studies reported in this paper were conducted in a rural area adjacent to the city of Dacca in East Pakistan. It reports the preliminary findings of action-research in the implementation of educational efforts to reach rural villagers of a developing country.

Preliminary analyses of the records identify two significant educational problems: (1) most of the villagers (85–90 percent of the couples) who initially accepted contraceptives do not truly adopt and become continuing users and (2) the continuing users (10–15 percent of the initial users) are generally characterized by large families. (Later data show an even lower percentage of continuing users.)

The field activities in the development of various educational approaches to family planning are described. Three separate geographic areas (from 15,000 to 20,000 population) were each approached in a different way, varying in the number and educational qualifications of the workers and in the degree of involvement of village leadership. Preliminary analyses of field records indicate that these variations of approach apparently have little effect on the percentage of the population willing to accept contraceptive supplies.

It is the opinion of the writers that more intensive educational efforts are necessary at the village level to develop social support for continuing use of contraception and to gain adoption of contraception by younger married couples primarily for spacing of births.

The impact of introduction of the IUCD in populations where condoms and foam tablets have been available for one to two years has also been reported. Preliminary findings indicate that the IUCD encourages adoption by previous non-users and may increase the over-all percentage of contraceptive users.
New frontiers in demography and social psychology
Authors: Back Kurt W.
Published: March 2007

The topics of demography are those of human fate: birth, illness, marriage, occupation, and death. The methods of demography therefore relate global rates to major events, submerging the individual decision. The social psychologist observes the regularities of people’s behavior in different social conditions and builds models from individual decisions. Since he looks at patterns independent of the event, the kind of event does not matter, and he tends to concentrate on trivial events which are amenable to research.

To the degree that man has obtained control over his environment, he is able to look at demographic events as less than fate. Social conditions have also given more control to the individual over many events over which he had no control previously, such as choice of a marriage partner or an occupational career. Thus, the classical methods of demography are frequently insufficient to deal with demographic data, and abrupt changes may occur because of vagaries of individual decisions. The more the demographic trends can be affected by individual decisions, the more the methods of social psychology become useful in understanding changes in population composition.

The possibilities of micro-demography, of building up demographic trends from individual decisions, become stronger as more individual control can be exerted over the events. Such disparate events as control of infectious disease, air pollution, birth control, civil rights, and changes in the educational system and occupational structure have given individuals more control over different demographic variables, made the study of individual decisions with demographic consequences important, and led to joint efforts by demographers and social psychologists.
Widow remarriages in some rural areas of Northern India
Authors: Agarwala S. N.
Published: March 2007

It is commonly believed thai widows belonging to high-caste Hindus in India do not remarry because of various social restrictions imposed on their remarriage. Though some information on widowhood and widow remarriages is available, there is need for more detailed information. A study, carried out by the author, of 1 percent of the rural households in Mathura and Saharanpur districts in Uttar Pradesh and in Rohtak district in Panjab has brought out that nearly SO percent of the ever-widowed are remarried. The survey covered 6,211 households, of which 887 were Muslim and the remaining were Hindu.

Of the ever-widowed females, 84 percent in Saharanpur, 25 percent in Rohtak, and 19 percent in Mathura were found to have remarried. With a view to finding out whether differences in widow remarriage percentages by districts were real or were due to variations in the distribution of the ever-widowed females by age, occupation, caste, and the number of living children, the standardized widow remarriage rates were obtained. The population of Saharanpur district was taken to be the standard population. As a result of standardization for age, number of living children, and caste, the difference narrowed down considerably; and, while the widow remarriage percentage was 34.2 in Saharanpur. it was found to be 334 in Rohtak and 31.1 in Mathura. A 3 percent lower figure for Mathura district could be a result of the Brahminic influence.

Widow remarriages were found to be very common among younger widows, since nearly 90 percent of those below age 16 and 80 percent of those in the age group 15–19 were remarried. Also, roughly 80 percent of those who did not have a child at the time of their widowhood were remarried. But the per-centage of remarried widows declined with an increase in age and in the number of living children. The percentage of widow remarriages was highest among the Muslims—between 35 and 37—because they put no restrictions on such remarriages. Among the Hindus, the lower castes, such as Chamars, Bhangis, and artisan castes, had the highest percentage of widow remarriages—around 30—because of the absence of social restrictions on such remarriages. Among the high-caste Hindus, the Jats (one of the warrior castes) had the highest percentage of remarried widows. The reason for this is that they have socially permitted such remarriages. Widow remarriages, though on a smaller scale, were also found prevailing among other warrior castes, such as Gujjars, Ahirs, and Rajputs. Among other high-caste Hindus, such as Brahmins, Banias, Khatris, and Aroras, cases of widow remarriages were very few—only around 7 percent. This is the result of a long standing religious sanction against such remarriages.

On the basis of our data, we are inclined to say that in the rural areas of northern India no marked change in the social position regarding widow remarriages is noticeable.
Fertility among ethnic groups in the USSR
Authors: Mazur D. Peter
Published: March 2007

Thirty-six ethnie groups in the USSR are analyzed as to fertility differentials. The analysis is based on data from the 1959 nationwide census. To explain the fertility differentials found, ethnographic and sociological features of these groups are traced as a possible contributing factor. One of the poignant observations of the study is the fact that almost all ethnic groups with fertility above the median are those belonging to Moslem and Buddhist traditions. They are primarily located in the Central Asian republics, the Caucasus, and some parts of southern Siberia. Low fertility levels are by and large associated with the Eastern Orthodox Slavs and the Protestant Balts.

Ratios of the number of children aged 0–9 to the number of women in the 20–49 age group are related to independent variables in the following order of importance: traditional religion, percentage of married women in the 20–49 age group, degree of literacy, male-female literacy differential, and sex ratio. The multiple correlation of 0.911 was obtained between the child-woman ratio and the first four of the most important independent variables. Sex ratio appeared significant only after the influence of the percentage of married women was eliminated from the analysis of multiple and partial correlations.

The data suggest that the urban-rural differential is a non-linear function of the urban-rural migration. A more complete explanation of the divergence between urban and rural child-woman fertility ratios should be made the subject of separate studies.
Mobility, Non-Familial Activity, and Fertility
Authors: Tien H. Yuan
Published: March 2007

In this analysis of fertility data from a sample of non-Catholic faculty couples in an American university, temporal patterns and variations in education, employment, marriage, and parenthood of the husbands and wives are discussed in reference to (1) the social mobility-fertility hypothesis and (2) a non-familial activity-fertility hypothesis.

The couples are divided into four groups on the basis of family size and mobility status: (1) mobile-small, (2) non-mobile-small, (3) mobile-large, and (4) non-mobile-large. Whatever their mobility status, the four groups of husbands successfully completed requirements for the doctoral degree at about the same age and became established at about the same time in life and within the profession. Whatever their husbands’ social origins, the wives also differ little with respect to educational attainment and in their work experiences in prematrimonial days. However, a different pattern is found in the work experiences of the wives since marriage. Those with two children are more likely to be employed after marriage and parenthood.

On the other hand, a good many more wives with four or more children not only never worked before marriage but also remained outside the labor force after marriage (in the earlier years of marriage as well as after the tenth anniversary). The present data thus seem to support an analytically useful distinction between the “working wives” and the “working mothers.”
Field experience in estimating population growth
Authors: Lauriat Patience
Published: March 2007

This paper reports on some of the aspects of implementing the population estimation studies now being carried out—the Population Growth Estimation Study (PGE) in Pakistan, the Survey of Population Change (SPC) in Thailand, and the Demographic Survey in Turkey (TDS). The basic purpose of all these surveys is to provide reliable estimates of population growth rates for various areas within each of the countries.

All the surveys under consideration are single-purpose, continuing, nation-wide studies, using fixed, area samples. The basic methodology of the studies is similar in that they aü utilize the technique of collecting data on births and deaths by two separate systems and then comparing individual events to determine whether events were recorded by both systems or only one. One list is based on periodic enumerations and the other on continuous registration.

Some of the problems encountered in the various phases of the field work required to assemble the two independent lists—such as identification of enumeration units, the de facto approach vs. the de jure approach, assuring completeness of registration, and reconciliation of unmatched cases—are described and the steps taken toward their solution outlined.

The author concludes that the studies are on sound methodological grounds but that their implementation, especially in developing countries, poses additional burdens.
From new entries to retirement: The changing age composition of the U.S. male labor force by industry
Authors: Jaffe A. J.
Published: March 2007

The process whereby the age composition of an industry is formed appears to be largely a function of past rates of growth in employment; the social (or institutional) framework sets limits and affects the ensuing age composition but relatively little. The following types will illustrate this process.Consider an industry which has increased considerably more rapidly in employment over several decades than has the total labor force. The rapid growth brings in a disproportionately large share of youth who are first entering the labor market; other younger workers move from slowly growing (or declining) industries. These movements add many more younger workers. On the other hand, there is little, if any, unemployment in the industry so that there are few pressures being exerted on the older workers to retire, and relatively few will retire. Under these circumstances the age composition will be younger than tliat of the entire male working force.Consider an industry which has grown slowly, if at all, for some time. There will be comparatively fewer (in comparison with the first example) new entries and less mobility from other industries. The men already engaged in this industry will continue to work there; they gradually become older and are not counterbalanced by increasing numbers of young workers. Unemployment is likely to be higher, leading to a higher retirement rate. There are also likely to be large numbers of men a decade or two under the retirement age—the heritage of an “ancient” period when the industry had experienced significant increases in employment; these add pressure on the older men and more retire. The age composition of such an industry gradually veers toward the older side; it is considerably older than that of the entire male working force.

At any given moment of time most industries will reflect variable past growth rates. For example, one industry may have a very large proportion of young workers because it grew very rapidly in employment only during the decade prior to the time of study (i.e., the time of a decennial census); another may have a large proportion in the middle ages reflecting very rapid growth two or three decades earlier, followed by very slow growth in the decade prior to the time of study; and so forth.

In light of the foregoing analysis, it appears that technological change, as measured by average annual changes in output per worker, has little bearing on the age composition of an industry. Conversely, the latter probably does not affect changes in output per worker.
Evaluating the relative accuracy and significance of net migration estimates
Authors: Stone Leroy O.
Published: March 2007

This paper presents the elements of a theory for evaluating the quality of a set of net migration estimates. The total error in a net migration estimate is decomposed into total bias and total variation. The bias is further decomposed into three bias elements—selection bias, estimator bias, and measurement bias. Tables of bounds for measurement and estimator biases in the vital statistics and the forward survival ratio estimates of net intercensal migration are presented. Both net migration levels and net migration ratios are treated, and provision is made for both life table and census survival ratio estimates. Some of the statistical tables are applied illustratively to net migration data for Canadian counties or census divisions during the 1951–61 decade. Tests of significance and confidence intervals are indicated for net migration estimates, and the basic technical notes are presented in appendices.
Forensic demography and civil rights
Authors: Pozner Arlyne I.
Published: March 2007

In the summer of 1965, the legislature of the state of Mississippi passed a law which required children whose parents were living in another state to pay up to $350 tuition in order to attend public school. On the belief that this law discriminated against Negroes and was therefore unconstitutional, the Department of Justice began litigation procedures to repeal it. But evidence was needed to prove that the law was in fact discriminatory. The lawyers contacted demographers at the Bureau of the Census to provide data to determine if the majority of persons affected were Negro and too poor to pay the tuition. They sought information which could tell them, ideally, how many parents of children in Mississippi had left the state and what the economic position and racial characteristics of the children were.

An attempt was made to get this information from already published sources, such as census reports and other research findings. These could give a hurried impression of the situation but could not deal directly with the issue of the whereabouts of parents not living with their children, since such a question had not been asked in the 1960 Census. An additional bit of information was obtained from the NAAGP Legal Defense and Education Fund in Jackson, Mississippi, from forms showing characteristics of persons actually affected by the law. But this limited sample did not provide evidence solid enough upon which to build a case.

It was decided to rely on a retabulation of 1960 Census records to describe accurately the base population from which children with parents out of state would be drawn—namely, the children not living with either parent. This showed that of all school-age children living without either parent, 82 percent are Negro. The average Negro household, which contains at least one “parentless” child, houses 6.8 persons and has an annual income of $1,429. This allows less than $250 annually per person. Tuition for just one child eats up more than one person’s yearly allotment. These data showed that the law, in fact, did discriminate racially, since most of the persons affected were Negro and too poor to pay tuition.

This was one instance in which demographers were able to use their special skills in implementing public policy—notably, the law.
The growth of American families studies an assessment of significance
Authors: Kiser Clyde V.
Published: March 2007

This is a review focused mainly upon the book Fertility and Family Planning in the United States, by Pascal K. Whelpton, Arthur A. Campbell, and John E. Patterson, published by Princeton University Press in 1966, and representing the results of the second GAF survey (1960). The initial GAF survey was conducted in 1955 and resulted in the book Family Planning, Sterility, and Population Growth, by Ronald Freedman, Pascal K. Whelpton, and Arthur A. Campbell, published by McGraw-Hill in 1958.

A basic purpose of the GAF studies, as contrived by Whelpton, was that of trying to improve the bases for population estimates by learning from young women themselves the number of children that they expected to have altogether and during the next five years. By repeating the study five years later, it was hoped to test the validity of replies on expectations by comparing them with subsequent performance. This involved interviewing not the same women but the same types of women in 1955 and 1960.

The GAF studies have indicated the usefulness of questions on number of children expected. They suggest that the replies of 1955 have low predictive value for individual behavior but high predictive value for group behavior. They have provided invaluable data on other aspects of fertility unavailable from official sources, such as family planning, fecundity, and the influence of religion. The chief inadequacies of the GAF studies have been those associated with small numbers. Moreover, definitive comparisons of expectations with performance would seem to require longitudinal studies of the same women rather than periodic studies of the same types of women. On the other hand, the latter type of design doubtless is preferable for other purposes.

Besides the yield of new data on fertility, the GAF studies have been significant in that one government agency provided the funds for the National Fertility Survey of 1965, which was essentially a third round of the GAF studies, and another government agency is considering the institution of regular surveys of the GAF type in order to provide a wider scope of data relating to fertility. The volume under review is at once a fitting living memorial to the senior author and the Scripps Foundation, a credit to the coauthors, and a worthy model for future studies.
Natural decrease of population: The current and prospective status of an emergent American phenomenon
Authors: Beale Calvin L.
Published: March 2007

In the early 1950’s, more deaths than births began to occur in a few counties of the United States. The phenomenon has since spread, especially in the 1960’s. In 1966 it occurred in 271 counties, and had affected a total of 324 counties since 1950. Natural decrease had earlier been present in some areas of the United States during the 1930’s. At that time, it was primarily associated with population of low intrinsic fertility. Its occurrence since 1950, however, has not been related to inadequate childbearing rates, but rather to the development of distorted age structures. In most eases, the distortion is the product of prolonged and heavy outmigration of young adults to the extent that the number of couples of childbearing age remaining in an area is insufficient to produce births in excess of the number of deaths occurring to the larger older population. In a minority of cases, the excess of deaths has resulted from large in-migration of older people into retirement areas. The occurrence of natural decrease has been most heavily concentrated in the central part of the country, especially in marginal Corn Belt areas of Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, and Iowa. It has also been common in central Texas. The counties affected are typically rural and agricultural, with a high median age, a history of population decline, and average population fertility. They had a total 1960 population of 4,003,000 persons. It is projected that an excess of deaths over births will have affected 520 or more counties by 1970, or about a sixth of all counties in the Nation. Given the increasing extent of the condition, research appraising its social and economic consequences for an area is urged.
Segmented generation mortality
Authors: Spiegelman Mortimer
Published: March 2007

For a clear understanding of the inherent changes in mortality with advance in age, it is necessary to observe the experience of generations rather than the cross-section of period experience. In fact, the latter may produce a misleading picture as can be illustrated in the case of tuberculosis. Period experience pointed to a rise in tuberculosis death rates with advance in age, whereas generation experience indicates a decline with aging, The present paper proposes the study of mortality changes of all generations existing at one period to a subsequent period. Some characteristics and trends in the changes in generation mortality of white males and white females since 1900 are discussed. It is pointed out, in particular, that since World War II white males have been experiencing a rapidly increasing rise in generation mortality with the approach of midlife. A comparison of generation mortality changes from 1950 to 1960 among countries of traditionally low mortality shows that only males in the other English-speaking countries may be undergoing the same experience as white males in the United States upon the approach of midlife. It is not evident in the Scandinavian countries and the Netherlands and in the other countries. The reason for these differences is not apparent.
Shopping center location and retail store mix in metropolitan areas
Authors: Casparls John
Published: March 2007

Retail sales in 1963 in 116 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA’s) are related to SMSA size in 1960. Nucleated sales occur in the Central Business District (CBD) and in Major Retail Centers (MRC’s). As SMSA’s grow, the proportion of sales in MRC’s increases and that in the CBD decreases. The ratio of nucleated sales to dispersed sales remains constant. The laws of economic location operate to place shopping goods primarily in the CBD and in MRC’s whereas convenience and other types of stores disperse throughout the SMSA. Plotting the straight line distance of every MRC relative to the CBD and computing the mix of trade types in MRC’s reveals that, with some modifications, most MRC’s have a mix of store types similar to the CBD. Convenience stores are somewhat more important and all other stores less so than they are in the CBD. The findings support the Harris-Ullman multiple nuclei hypothesis.
Probability models for family building: An analytical review
Authors: Sheps Mindel C. , Menken Jane A. , Radick Annette P.
Published: March 2007

Considerable literature now exists on stochastic models for the reproductive history of a cohort of couples. These models are of varying complexity and the relationships between separate treatments are not always clear. A classification system for such models is proposed, followed by a historical review of models for family building and for logically related processes. Models, differing only in treatment of time as discrete or continuous, are presented in detail for the simple case where the prob ability of conception is constant, and all conceptions lead to live births which are associated with a fixed nonsusceptible period. Analysis of different treatments is facilitated by introducing the notion of the time when a conception is recorded. Emphasis is placed on results for the probability of a recording at a specified time t, the probability of r recordings by time t, and the expected number of recordings in time t. Differences between the discrete and continuous time models are made explicit. It is shown that results for these models can be derived using renewal theory techniques, which are presented. More complex models based on renewal theory and allowing for several pregnancy outcomes or for variability in parameters are briefly described, followed by generalized models which allow parameters to vary with time. Applications of family building models are summarized.
A discrete-time two-sex age-specific stochastic population program incorporating marriage
Authors: Pollard J. H.
Published: March 2007

A discrete-time two-sex stochastic population model is developed. All entities (single males, single females, or couples) are grouped according to their ages, and during a unit time interval, each entity has a choice of several outcomes with fixed conditional probabilities. The model assumes that the number of marriages between men aged x and women aged y is equal to the minimum of the number of men aged x desiring marriage with a woman aged y and the number of women aged y desiring marriage with a man aged x. It follows that if a large excess of males of a11 ages is maintained in the population, the female component grows as a multi-type Galton-Watson process. Under such circumstances, the females have perfect freedom in their choice of marriage partner, and the use of a multi-type Galton-Watson process is very realistic. The same result is true for the male component of the population. Ir there are no males (or females) , no marriages take place, so the model is realistic on this score also. A complex computer program is described, and a detailed numerical example given.
First-marriage decrement tables by color and sex for the United States in 1958–60
Authors: Saveland Walt , Glick Paul C.
Published: March 2007

A new set of first-marriage tables is compared with earlier tables that were prepared by Grabill and Jacobson. The new tables show, among other things, the number of first marriages, first-marriage probabilities, and death probabilities for single persons in a stationary (life table) population by color and sex, based on 1960 Census data on marital status and age at first marriage and on general mortality rates for 1959–61. A comparison of the earlier tables with the new tables provides evidence of a decrease of one or two years in the average age at first marriage between 1920–40 and 1958–60 and an increasing tendency for first marriages to be concentrated within a narrower span of years. The prospects for eventual marriage have risen to the point where it is estimated that all but 3 to 5 percent of the young adults are expected eventually to marry. This development has gone so far that the main question remaining is not whether young people will ever marry, but at what age they will marry.
Age distribution and the stable equivalent
Authors: Keyfitz Nathan
Published: March 2007

Some populations, like that of the United States in the 1950’s, have a smaller proportion of women of reproductive age than they would ultimately attain with continuance of their age-specific birth and deaths rates, a continuance which produces the condition known in demography as stability. Others, like that of the United States in the 1930’s, have relatively more women of reproductive age than they would ultimately attain with stability. A way of studying ages is to calculate how many women of stable age distribution would be equivalent from the viewpoint of reproduction to the women observed. This stable equivalent was 69,535,000 or 16 percent below the observed United States female population in 1955, and 12 percent above the observed in 1935. The stable equivalent is a measure of fertility potential, closely related to R. A. Fisher’s reproductive value. Calculations for four countries illustrate how a fall of the birth rate, for example in demographic transition, occasions an age distribution in which the stable equivalent is greater than the observed number of women. The notion of stable equivalent is useful for comparison because changes in it are nearly invariant with respect to the age-pattern of fertility used. The statement that the United States stable equivalent increased by 11 percent between 1960 and 1965 holds irrespective of whether the 1960 or the 1965 age-specific fertility and mortality rates are used as standard.
The applicability of the burgess zonal hypothesis to urban Canada
Authors: Guest Avery M.
Published: March 2007

A replication for Canada of Schnore’s studies of socio-economic differentiation between United States central cities and suburbs produces generally similar results, although the Canadian patterns are by no means as pronounced or conclusive. Older, larger and highly suburbanized Canadian areas are most apt to have high-status groups over-represented in the suburbs and low-status groups over-represented in the central city. Furthermore, this pattern of socio-economic differentiation is found less often in Canadian areas than in the United States areas which tend to be older and larger. A study of change over time also suggests a movement toward socio-economic differentiation between city and suburb. These results are consistent with the Burgess zonal hypothesis which argues that lower-status groups increasingly inhabit the central section and upperstatus groups the outskirts as cities grow.
On the theory of stable populations: A new and elementary proof of the theorems under weaker assumptions
Authors: McFarland David D.
Published: March 2007

Expositions and elementary proofs are given for the basic theorems of stable population theory: That a population subjected to vital rates (not necessarily constant over time) satisfying certain postulates will eventually “forget” its original age distribution and take on one (not necessarily constant over time) which depends only on its history of agespecific vital rates, a process called “weak ergodicity.” That consequently the subsequent birth, death, and growth rates (none of these necessarily constant over time) depend only on the history of age-specific vital rates and not on the original age distribution. And, in particular, that these results apply to the special case, herein called “classic” stable population theory, in which the age-specific vital rates are constant over time, and in which after the “forgetting” takes place the subsequent age distribution and birth, death, and growth rates all become constant. This formulation of the theory differs from previous ones in two respects: First, the postulates required are weaker, and hence the theorems more general, than previously; in particular, this formulation permits the highest age of childbearing to change from cohort to cohort, which is important for populations practicing contraception. Second, none of the advanced mathematics used in previous formulations is needed; only the manipulation of sums and inequalities from high school algebra and the concept of “limit” from freshman calculus are required.
Factors influencing contraception continuation rates: The oral and the intrauterine methods
Authors: Hall M.-Françoise , Reinke William A.
Published: March 2007

The technique of multi-sort analysis was used to compare the relative duration of use of oral and intrauterine contraception among low socio-economic groups in Baltimore City. The clinical records of over 12,000 women who had received contraception through the Baltimore public services were analyzed. The type of method a woman used was found to be the most important factor affecting her probability of continuing contraception. Her age, race, and how long she had been using the method also influenced this probability. The strictness of the criteria used for the definition of continuation rates and the fact that experience was incomplete for many intrauterine contraceptors probably in part explain the somewhat low continuation rates obtained for both methods. It is suggested that the intrinsic characteristics of each method may lead to a clinical impression favoring the oral even when statistical evidence, as presented here, favors the intrauterine method.
A Taylor series expansion for Lotka’s r
Authors: Pollard J. H.
Published: March 2007

A. J. Latka and F. R. Sharpe published their classical deterministic population model in 1911, and since that date, numerous numerical methods have been suggested for solving the integral equation inherent in the model. We consider the familiar integral equation (Equation (1)) and derive a Taylor series for ro, the unique real solution. The series is no more advantageous from the calculation point of view than many previous solutions, but it may be useful in a theoretical context. The effects on the intrinsic rate of increase of the population due to changes in the cumulants of the net maternity function are readily discernible.
A method for comparative analysis of fertility dynamics represented by sequences of fertility schedules
Authors: Namboodiri N. Krishnan
Published: March 2007

A method to compare fertility sequences, each of which represents a cyclical fluctuation around an underlying trend, is presented. Each fertility sequence is viewed as composed of a time trend in childspacing pattern and a corresponding trend in terminal fertility rate. The procedure involved in comparing each component of one fertility sequence with the corresponding component of another is described and illustrated. Using hypothetical data it is shown, among other things, that ifA andB are two cyclical fluctuations in fertility such that (i) the cycles in both are of the same length, (ii) the terminal fertility components of the two are identical, and (iii) the trend in the mean age at childbirth associated withA is higher than the corresponding trend associated withB, then, replacingB withA need not necessarily result in lowering the long-run rates of increase in the birth sequence.
Infant mortality trends in rural East Pakistan
Authors: Stoeckel John
Published: March 2007

Infant mortality trends in a rural area of East Pakistan are analyzed utilizing the Bogue pregnancy history technique. The findings indicate that infant mortality has declined slightly over 20 percent between 1958 and 1967. The existence of development programs in women’s education and family planning since 1961 are proposed as possible reasons for this finding. A convergence in infant mortality rates to mothers in the age range 15–39 years was found in the final year under analysis, while the standard U shaped pattern of infant mortality with age structure was exhibited in the previous years. One possible explanation for the convergence is that the development programs are reaching women within this age range more equally than in the past. An alternative explanation relating to the problems of recall of mortality events was discussed.
Lifetime probability of additional births by age and parity for American women, 1935–1968: A new measurement of period fertility
Authors: Park Chal Bin
Published: March 2007

A new fertility measurement, probability that a woman of specified parity and age will bear a given number of births in her remaining lifetime, is proposed in this article. The measurement is a summary index of a set of age-parity-specific birth probabilities and in a particular case it is conceptually analogous to the total fertility by birth order but free from the influence of the parity distribution. Fertility of American women for the period 1935–1968 was studied by use of such lifetime probabilities. It appears that the trend of fertility of high birth orders has been parallel with that of low orders. Initiation of the recent decline in fertility depends on parity and age of woman.
Parity patterns of birth interval distribution
Authors: Lee Che-Fu , Lin Kuang-Hua
Published: March 2007

A simplified model is presented for the measurement of inter-live birth interval distributions. Comparative analyses of “effective fecundability,” the mean length and variation of postpartum infecundity, and the parity progression ratio based on this measurement model are presented using data from U.S. marriage cohorts and from an Indian sample. Parity differentials in these reproduction parameters are investigated, and the ramifications for fertility estimate and projection discussed.
Repeat abortion
Authors: Potter Robert G. , Ford Kathleen
Published: March 2007

A reanalysis of the repeat abortion experience of New York City residents during July 1, 1970 to June 30, 1972 is undertaken on the basis of a probability model that generates repeat abortion ratios as a function of assumptions about fecundity, contraceptive efficiency, and exposure lengths. Tested are three hypotheses put forward by Daily et al. in a 1973 analysis: (i) the low repeat abortion ratio of .0245 is attributable in part to underreporting of registered induced abortions as repeat ones; (ii) a major part of the rise in repeat abortion ratios, from virtually zero to six percent over four consecutive six-month intervals, is explainable in terms of the rising volume of exposure time to risk of repeat abortion relative to the stream of initial abortions; and (iii) the higher abortion ratios of women in their twenties compared to those of older or younger women is ascribable to “differences in fecundity and intercourse frequency.” Support is found for the first two hypotheses, and a mixed outcome for the third.
Immigration policies and trends: A comparison of Canada and the United States
Authors: Boyd Monica
Published: March 2007

This paper discusses recent migration to North America with reference to the 1962 and 1967 Canadian immigration regulations and the 1965 United States Immigration and Nationality Act. Despite the similar emphasis on manpower and kinship criteria as the basis for the admission of immigrants, differences between Canada and the United States exist with respect to the importance of immigration for the respective economies, the organization of immigration, the formal regulations, and the size and composition of migrant streams. After an examination of the volume, origin, and occupational composition of immigration to Canada and the United States, flows between the two countries are studied. The paper concludes with a scrutiny of changes in immigration regulations which are pending in both countries.
The United States population by race and urban-rural residence 1790–1860: Reference tables
Authors: Wilkie Jane Riblett
Published: March 2007

The U.S. population by race and urban-rural residence from 1790 to 1860 is presented. The definition of the urban population used is that population residing in incorporated places of 2,500 population or more. The rural population is the residual of the total population minus the urban population, as defined above. The tables provide previously unavailable data on the urban-rural distribution of the black and white populations 1790–1860 and are compatible with data for the total population published by the Census Bureau.
Age at Marriage as a Factor in State Divorce Rate Differentials
Authors: Weed James A.
Published: March 2007

The prominent East-to-West gradient in state divorce rates has frequently been partially attributed to an ecological factor called “frontier atmosphere,” which incorporates the effects of mobility on social integration. This paper employs linear statistical procedures to show that, after adjustment of state divorce rates for age distribution, the percent ever married among teenage females is the best statistical predictor of 1960 and 1970 divorce rates, whereas “frontierness,” conventionally measured by population mobility, is shown to have negligible effect, controlling for other selected legal and nonlegal factors. This finding suggests that previous ecological studies of divorce have overemphasized the effect of mobility and social stability on geographic divorce rate differentials, perhaps due to the neglect of demographic variables such as age distribution and especially age at marriage.
Nuptiality and Fertility of Birth Cohorts
Authors: Ruzicka Ladislav T.
Published: March 2007

The impact of changes in age patterns of nuptiality on the net reproduction rate is examined using life table techniques and assuming that age-specific fertility within marriage and fertility outside of marriage are fixed. In the second section, a standardization technique is used to investigate the impact of changes in nuptiality on age-cumulative measures of marital fertility. Examples using data for selected generations of Australian women demonstrate the extent to which recent changes in average completed family size in Australia were affected by changing nuptiality patterns.
Interregional Differences in Fertility in Brazil, 1950–1970
Authors: Merrick Thomas W.
Published: March 2007

Trends and interregional differences in the birth rate in Brazil between 1950 and 1970 are examined. Estimates are based on data from the 1950 and 1970 censuses. Regional differences in birth measures (crude and general rates) were found to widen between 1950 and 1970 despite a decline in fertility at the national level and a narrowing of regional differences in important socioeconomicvariables like income and urbanization, The substantial interregional migration flows which occurred in Brazil between 1950 and 1970 are examined for their possible impact on differentials. The effects are mixed, but the conclusion is that migration contributed to widening differences.
A Note on Differential Fertility in Sri Lanka
Authors: Fernando Dallas F. S.
Published: March 2007

In this paper an attempt has been made to study differential fertility by urban-rural and regional classifications, using data obtained from complete tabulations of the 1963 Census of Population, the four rounds of the Socio-Economic Survey conducted from November 1969 to October 1970, and the Registrar General’s Department. The analysis of current fertility indicates that the traditional pattern of lower urban fertility relative to rural held true in both 1963 and 1970 and also shows a narrowing of the differentials. The country was divided into four zones on an agro-climatic basis for regional analysis. A consistent ranking of the zones in relation to current fertility emerges in both 1963 and 1970. Changing patterns of age-specific fertility and age-specific marital fertility are discussed. Data on average size of family by urban-rural and regional classifications are also analyzed. An attempt has also been made to identify some of the possible causes for the differentials observed.
The Relationship of the Crude Birth Rate and its Components to Social and Economic Development
Authors: Guest Avery M.
Published: March 2007

Using well-known techniques of regression analysis, we decompose the crude birth rate into six analytical components, indicating illegitimacy, the marriage rate, legitimate fertility, and sex and age composition. All the components except sex structure are important in determining differences in crude birth rates across countries of the world. The model is elaborated by showing how economic development affects the crude birth rate through its basic demographic components.
The Multiregional Net Maternity Function and Multiregional Stable Growth
Authors: Rogers Andrel
Published: March 2007

This paper extends recent efforts to generalize Lotka’s integral equation to the case of a multiregional population that experiences internal migration. It develops the concept of a multiregional net maternity function and considers the relationships between a multiregional population’s schedule of fertility, mortality, and migration and its stable growth properties.
Metropolitan Retail Nucleation
Authors: Guest Avery M. , Cluett Christopher
Published: March 2007

We argue that U.S. metropolitan retail nucleation, as represented by sales in the Central Business District and in retail centers, is a consequence of population growth in at least three transportation epochs, the walking and horse era, the electric streetcar era, and the automobile period. Population growth in each epoch has had a different effect on retail nucleation, with the most recent growth having had a pronounced positive effect on development of retail centers and a slight negative effect on the sales of the Central Business District.
Differential Life-Styles between Migrants and Nonmigrants: A Case Study of the City of Shiraz, Iran
Authors: Paydarfar All A.
Published: March 2007

The migration pattern to Shiraz, a southern city of Iran, is not consistent with the general pattern observed in cities of the other developing nations. Migrants to Shiraz are largely from other cities, and they are more advanced educationally and socioeconomically and less traditional than native Shirazi. This study is based on 1,061 interview cases collected at random. The sample consists of 612 nonmigrants, 125 rural migrants and 324 urban migrants. These groups were compared on thirtyfour indices measuring various facets of the respondents’ life-styles. The three groups differed statistically on most of the indices. Fatalism and possession of modern appliances were the most important factors differentiating the three groups.