bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Assessment of tropical cyclone hazard and risk in a changing climate by means of a new global hybrid model
Authors: Boudreault Mathieu , Ingrosso Roberto , Pausata Francesco
Published: March 2024

The future evolution of tropical cyclones (TCs) in a warming world is an important issue, considering their potential socio-economic impacts on the areas hit by these phenomena. Understanding the natural variability and sources of uncertainties over present and future climates and modelling the impacts of TCs remains an important challenge as climate projections do not always provide robust responses about their future evolution. With questions arising about the insurability of coastal communities in the future, risk management requires more robust quantification as to how climate change affects TCs dynamics. It is therefore important to develop TC models that are computationally efficient to provide a full distribution of outcomes for the present and future.Here, we present a global TC wind model based upon statistical models forced with 10 variables from the 40 members of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (LE). The model provides a full description of the frequency, spatial cyclogenesis patterns, tracks and intensities from 1980 to 2060 under the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario. The resulting event sets can therefore be used for risk management in the financial services industry. We find that future frequency of TCs in the North Atlantic is heavily dependent upon how Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and vorticity are accounted for to generate cyclogenesis patterns. Nevertheless, we obtain a larger proportion of Cat. 4-5 storms in the future independently on how SST and vorticity are accounted for with greater intensification along the Gulf of Mexico and the east coast of the U.S. This is consistent with a projected increase (decrease) in the SST (wind shear) over those regions in the CESM-LE. Finally, we find that, especially for Cat. 4+ hurricanes, population growth and climate change should both contribute significantly to the increase in TC risk.
Why does Earth have plate tectonics and what was before?
Authors: Sobolev Stephan , Jain Charitra , Pons Michael
Published: March 2024

The Earth is the only planet in our Solar System with active plate tectonics. Answering questions such as why plate tectonics started on Earth and which tectonic regime came before are fundamentally important for understanding the evolution of the early Earth. Currently, the most popular answers are (i) before plate tectonics on Earth, there was stagnant lid or plutonic-squishy-lid tectonic regime with no or minor contribution of subduction; (ii) plate tectonics took over when the initially high mantle temperature on Earth dropped by 100-200K due to secular cooling. In this work, we challenge both these statements based on published and new data and models.Plenty of observations suggest that plate tectonics started on Earth during mid-Archean. At the same time, the numerical models and petrological data on the thermal evolution of the Earth show that mid-Archean was likely the time of the highest temperature of the Earth’s mantle and that significant secular cooling took place later in the Proterozoic. Moreover, previously published and our new thermochemical models also suggest that among all proposed tectonic regimes, only mobile-lid regime (i.e. plate tectonics) can lead to significant cooling of the Earth. Therefore, we conclude that plate tectonics in mid- or early Archean was unlikely to be initiated due to the significant secular cooling of the Earth’s mantle. The existence of no-subduction regimes, such as stagnant-lid or plutonic-squishy-lid, prior to plate tectonics are challenged by the new geochemical data which suggest extensive subduction and continental crust production already in the Hadean and early Archean.Here we present global geodynamic models of Earth’s evolution computed using StagYY and ASPECT codes in 2D spherical annulus and 3D geometries respectively. StagYY models suggest that during the Hadean and the early Archean, the tectonic regime was oscillating between plume-induced subduction and plutonic-squishy-lid. The mantle temperature remains high during this time, but significant amount of continental crust is produced in these models, which is in agreement with the new geochemical data (melt inclusions from Weltevreden komatiites). After the emergence of continents in the mid- to late Archean, we decrease the effective friction of the oceanic lithosphere in the models to mimic the lubricating effect of continental sediments in subduction channels. This leads to a transition of the tectonic regime from oscillatory to continuous mobile-lid and to an efficient secular cooling of Earth, which is consistent with petrological observations. Being 2D, all plume-induced subduction zones in StagYY models are global. With the preliminary 3D ASPECT models, we show how a number of plume-induced regional subduction zones in early Earth evolve into a global network of plate boundaries and result in plate tectonics.
Isotope tracing the coalbed methane migration from the underground longwall coal face to the surface of mining area 
Authors: Bezyk Yaroslav , Szurgacz Dawid , Strąpoć Dariusz , Górka Maciej , Nęcki Jarosław , Sówka Izabela , van der Veen Carina , Röckmann Thomas , Zimnoch Miroslaw , Jagoda Paweł , Bartyzel Jakub
Published: March 2024

Simultaneous methane emission studies in combination with the analysis of the isotopic composition can help to identify the genesis, transport process, and migration pathways of coalbed gases resulting from coal mining activities. This study was focused on the investigation of the influence of physical processes, site-specific conditions, and parameters of coal mine operations on variations in composition and distribution of coalbed CH4 during gas migration pathways. The flask air sampling was performed in the sequence of the return airways flowing along the longwall face of a coal seam at depths down to 700 m, across walkways of mine workings, and through mine ventilation shaft into the atmosphere. The analyses were conducted during undergoing mining operations in one of the hard coal mines in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB), Poland.The results of isotopic analysis of CH4 confirmed the relationship between gas migration from the coal seam into space of excavation and enrichment in 13C and 2H signatures. Free gas samples taken from the borehole in the coal seam, in the region of the longwall under analysis, consist mainly of thermogenic methane (86.8 – 92.1 %), with δ13C values between −50.9 and −50.7 ‰ and δ2H of −197.3 to −191.9 ‰. Samples collected along 145 m length of longwall coal face showed downward decreasing in CH4 concentration (range from 0.85 to 0.19 %) being diluted with the rise of ventilating air stream supplied to the longwall. The determined 13C- and 2H-enrichment in methane mixture flowing through the longwall from −48.9 to −46.6 ‰ for δ13C, and from −192.4 to −178.1 ‰ for δ2H, respectively, generally resulted from diffusion-controlled adsorption and desorption processes.In general, methane concentrations significantly decreased during upward migration across walkways of mine workings expressing a pronounced dilution effect with the increase in air velocity and distance from the exploitation longwall towards the ventilation shaft. The measured methane concentration inside of the exhaust ventilation shaft (surface channel) varied from 0.15 to 0.42 %, while mean isotopic signatures were estimated to be –48.8 ± 0.9 ‰ for δ13C and –188.2 ± 3.2 ‰ for δ2H. In addition, such isotopic mass balance approach can be used to determine the contribution of mine ventilation and other atmospheric methane sources contributions around coal mining areas. This work was funded by the Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education under Grant No. 2022/44/C/ST10/00112. The isotopic analysis has been supported by the ATMO-ACCESS Project (grant agreement ID: ATMO-TNA-4--0000000041). 
Spatial Aggregation of Satellite Observations Leads to an Overestimation of the Radiative Forcing due to Aerosol-Cloud Interactions
Authors: Goren Tom , Sourdeval Odran , Kretzschmar Jan , Quaas Johannes
Published: March 2024

The estimation of cloud radiative forcing (RFaci), arising from aerosol-cloud interactions (also known as the first indirect effect), relies on approximating cloud albedo susceptibility (β) to changes in droplet concentration. β depends on both cloud albedo and droplet concentration, which are observable through satellite observations. Typically, satellite data is spatially aggregated to coarser resolutions, such as 1 × 1° scenes. However, at these spatial scales, cloud albedo tends to be heterogeneous, while the β approximation assumes homogeneity. This study demonstrates that the common practice of aggregating satellite data and neglecting cloud albedo heterogeneity results in an average overestimation of 10% in previous RFaci estimates.
Relative performance of super-resolved Sentinel-2 images for built-up area mapping using deep learning
Authors: Debella-Gilo Misganu
Published: March 2024

Early detection of built-up areas is important for planning and understanding the impacts of urbanization. Although the high temporal resolution and open accessibility of major spaceborne remote sensing images offer great opportunities for such purposes, their spatial resolution continues to be a limitation. Enhancing the spatial resolution of such remote sensing images using deep learning algorithms is currently a hot research topic. Multiple cases have shown that impressive results could be achieved on spaceborne optical images such as Sentinel-2 images using variants of the Generative Adversarial Networks (GAN) used in image supper-resolution, when evaluated using quantitative metrics such as signal-to-noise ratio and perceptual metrics such as structural similarity index. Practical performance of such super-resolved images in performing various purposes, compared to their comparable resolution original images, are however less researched. In this work, we investigate the relative performance of super-resolved Sentinel-2 images, in comparison to the Very High Resolution (VHR) optical multispectral images from the Copernicus Contribution Missions (CCM) and the original resolution Sentinel-2 images at 10 m spatial resolution, for detecting built-up areas. A GAN based super-resolution model is trained using ten Sentinel-2 tiles in the southern part of Norway to enhance the resolution to 2.5 m. We gathered Sentinel-2 images acquired during the summer of 2021. VHR images from the same season with spatial resolution of 2 m are obtained from the CCM. Building footprint map from the national database is acquired for the same region. A U-net type semantic segmentation model based is then trained on the three datasets separately and built-up areas are then predicted for a test region. Their results are then compared in terms of pixel accuracy, intersection over union (Jaccard Index) and the number of building footprints detected.
Magma differentiation in dynamic mush domains from the perspective of multivariate statistics: open- vs closed-system evolution
Authors: Pontesilli Alessio , Di Fiore Fabrizio , Scarlato Piergiorgio , Ellis Ben , Del Bello Elisabetta , Andronico Daniele , Taddeucci Jacopo , Brenna Marco , Nazzari Manuela , Bachmann Olivier , Mollo Silvio
Published: March 2024

Open-conduit conditions characterize several of the most hazardous and active volcanic systems of basaltic composition worldwide, persistently refilled by magmatic inputs. Eruptive products with similar bulk compositions, chemically buffered by continual mafic inputs, exhibit nevertheless heterogeneous glass compositions in response to variable magma mixing, crystallization, and differentiation processes within different parts of the plumbing system. Here we document how multivariate statistics and magma differentiation modeling based on a large data set of glass compositions can be combined to constrain magma differentiation and plumbing system dynamics. Major and trace elements of matrix glasses erupted at Stromboli volcano (Italy) over the last twenty years provide a benchmark against which to test our integrated petrological approach. Principal component analysis, K-means cluster analysis, and kernel density estimation reveal that trace elements define a multivariate space whose eigenvectors are more readily interpretable in terms of petrological processes than major elements, leading to improved clustering solutions. Comparison between open- and closed-system differentiation models outlines that steady state magma compositions at constantly replenished and erupting magmatic systems approximate simple fractional crystallization trends, due to short magma residence times. Open-system magma dynamics imply lower crystallinities pervade the magmatic storage than those associated with closed-system scenarios, allowing efficient crystal-melt separation toward the top of the reservoir, where eruptible melts continuously supply the ordinary activity at the volcano. Conversely, a mush-like environment constitutes the bottom of the reservoir, in which poorly evolved magmas result from mixing events between mush residual melts and primitive magmas injected from deeper crustal levels. 
Quantifying the Buttressing Contribution of Sea Ice to Crane Glacier
Authors: Parsons Richard , Sun Sainan , Gudmundsson Hilmar
Published: March 2024

Antarctic sea ice extent reached a record minimum in 2023. Whilst the buttressing resistance provided by ice shelves has been quantified through past numerical studies, the degree to which sea ice can buttress and regulate upstream ice flow is not known. If significant, a future decline in sea ice extent would lead to increased ice discharge rates and a higher global mean sea level.The January 2022 disintegration of landfast sea ice in the Larsen B embayment was closely followed by a significant increase in ice flow velocities and retreat rates of numerous outlet glaciers in the region. Notably, Crane glacier saw an initial ~8km retreat over six weeks, during which time a 5% increase in velocity was observed. Afterwards, the full evacuation of ambient sea ice between October and November was accompanied by the most significant monthly increase in velocities.We use the numerical ice flow model, Ua, to investigate the buttressing effect of sea ice to Crane glacier. The ice-sheet model was initialised with sea ice included and constrained with observational velocity and geometry data sets. We conducted perturbation experiments on sea ice properties to explore its impact on the glacier. The results suggest that sea ice provided significant buttressing to the glacier before its collapse.
Methane occurrence in the Black Sea: From hydrates to the water column
Authors: Ruffine Livio , Agnissan Constant Art-Clarie , Giunta Thomas , Grilli Roberto , Lozano Mathis , Peyronnet Christophe , Donval Jean-Pierre , Paris Jean-Daniel , Desmedt Arnaud , Riboulot Vincent , Dupré Stéphanie , Fandino Olivia
Published: March 2024

Methane is widely found on continental margins. It originates from either microbial processes at shallow sedimentary depth or thermal cracking of organic matter at deep depth, and occurs as disolved or free gas, or hydrates. It is the main chemical compound found both in natural gas hydrate deposits and seafloor gas emissions at the cold-seep.There are extensive methane manifestations both in the sedimentary and water columns of the Black Sea.  This stratified sea is characterized by large quantities of methane bubbles discharged at the seafloor from the very shallow coastal shelf to the deep basin (Riboulot et al., 2017), contributing to the high concentration level measurement in the water column. Hydrate-bearing sediments are also widely distributed within the sediment on the continental slope, and Riboulot et al. (2018) showed that the seawater infiltration make them vulnerable and prone to dissociation since the reconnection of the Atlantic Ocean via the Sea of Marmara.The expeditions Ghass 2 in September 2021 allowed the investigation of several methane emission sites from the continental shelf to the deep basin in the Romanian sector of the Black Sea, including hydrate-bearing sites. The water column was probed to measure in situ dissolved methane concentration using a commercial methane sensor and the prototype laser spectrometer SubOcean and sampled from CTD-Rosette. A ~6m-length hydrate-bearing core was collected from a long Calypso piston corer from which a high-resolution sampling of hydrates was performed to estimate the influence of geological factors on their cage occupancy.The presentation aims to provide further background on methane dynamics in the Black Sea. ReferencesAgnissan Constant Art-Clarie, Guimpier Charlène, Terzariol Marco, Fandino Olivia, Chéron Sandrine, Riboulot Vincent, Desmedt Arnaud, Ruffine Livio (2023). Influence of Clay-Containing Sediments on Methane Hydrate Formation: Impacts on Kinetic Behavior and Gas Storage Capacity . Journal Of Geophysical Research-solid Earth , 128(9).Riboulot Vincent, Ker Stephan, Sultan Nabil, Thomas Yannick, Marsset Bruno, Scalabrin Carla, Ruffine Livio, Boulart Cedric, Ion Gabriel (2018). Freshwater lake to salt-water sea causing widespread hydrate dissociation in the Black Sea . Nature Communications , 9(117), 1-8 Acknowledgements The authors thank the different projects and programs for their financial supports DOORS by the EU Project number 101000518, ENVRIPLUS by EC Project number 654182, Blame ANR-18-CE01-0007, ORAGGE by Interdisciplinary graduate School for the Blue planet (ANR-17-EURE-0015 and "Investissements d'Avenir"), SEAMLESS by INSU LEFE Programme 2022
Palaeo-conditioning a coupled climate model to reproduce the Holocene greening of the Sahara and the warm poles of the Eocene
Authors: Hopcroft Peter , Wilson Paul , Crocker Anya , Xuan Chuang , Valdes Paul
Published: March 2024

General circulation models (GCMs) often fail to reproduce two key aspects of palaeoclimate states: the Holocene Greening of the Sahara and the warm poles of the Early Eocene. These biases are systematic across many generations of GCMs and appear to be largely independent of model complexity or resolution. Recently, solutions to both problems have been proposed through changes to the ‘physics’ parameterisations in GCMs. These parameterisations are employed to approximate aspects such as clouds, convection and turbulence that are too complex or fine-scale to be represented directly. In this work we employ a perturbed parameter ensemble of coupled GCM simulations that samples uncertainty in these aspects for the pre-industrial, mid-Holocene and early Eocene. Our aim is to evaluate whether one model can reproduce two independent palaeoclimate states satisfactorily and thereby improve the performance of the model for future and other times in the past. We use the coupled GCM HadCM3B and perturb 19 model parameters relating to atmospheric convection, clouds, the land-surface and ocean mixing across >1000 ensemble members. We then use a statistical emulator to learn from the ensemble and palaeo-condition the parameter values based on constraints from observed climatology and mid-Holocene and Eocene climate reconstructions. We examine the compatibility of the two palaeoclimate states in terms of their optimal parameter values and evaluate whether the model can produce the Holocene green Sahara given different assumptions on the contribution of summer (monsoon) and/or winter (stormtrack) rainfall increases. Our results constitute a step towards a fully palaeo-conditioned GCM which can more reliably simulate out-of-sample past or future climate states.
Lower plate retreat and opening of a Cretaceous forearc basin, Northern Andes
Authors: Kammer Andreas , Betancur Camilo Andrés , Conde Camilo
Published: March 2024

The tectonic setting of the Northern Andes is delineated fundamentally by a western oceanic terrane that was juxtaposed to the continental margin along the now fossilized interandean Romeral suture since the Early Cretaceous. This constellation and the connection to the Caribbean Large Igneous province have been attributed to a far-travelled and now partially subducted, formerly coherent terrane with a trailing edge represented by the Panama-Choco block. A former disconnection between oceanic terrane and South American plate may, however, be contended by considering continental provenance data of siliciclastic and volcanic rock units and a widely distributed geochemical arc signature of the effusive rock series. Moreover, the emplacement of the basic igneous sequences was strongly controlled by extensional tectonics and subduction correlates in its lifetime with the production of oceanic crust, suggesting a coupling between intrusive activity and convergence. In this contribution, we examine apparently conflicting structural deformations that may be reconciled, however, with the opening of a forearc basin and a deformational imprint that affected extensively the continental margin, supposing the existence of a subduction system composed of two continentward dipping slabs.
Sensitivity analysis of a process-based root water uptake model to predict drought stress in soybean and wheat in a tropical winter-dry climate
Authors: Abreu de Melo Marina Luciana , de Jong van Lier Quirijn , C. van Dam Jos , Heinen Marius
Published: March 2024

Drought stress is one of the main reasons for reduced yields in soybean and wheat crops in Brazil. Process-based root water uptake (RWU) models are valuable tools to assess soil-water-plant relations and improve crop water management. We aimed to perform a pioneer sensitivity analysis (SA) of a process-based RWU model using three methods and two sampling strategies. The SWAP agro-hydrological model with the recently implemented MFlux RWU function was used to predict drought stress in soybean and wheat crops simulated on five soils with different hydraulic properties sampled in southeast Brazil, characterized by a tropical winter-dry climate. Three SA methods were used: local, global Morris, and global Sobol. Seven parameters of the MFlux function were selected, together with their reference values and ranges of variability. The local sensitivities were predominately negative, indicating that the drought stress increased as the values for each RWU parameter decreased. The Morris method revealed parameter interactions not addressed in the local method. The Sobol method also evidenced parameter interactions calculated through robust variance-based indices. Although the three SA methods provided different results regarding parameter contributions to drought stress prediction, the root length density was the most sensitive parameter for all simulated scenarios. Hence, it should be a priority in future model calibration efforts.
Photosynthesis results in 2H-depleted carbohydrates, but why?
Authors: Werner Roland A. , Holloway-Phillips Meisha
Published: March 2024

When you grow plants in the light, the hydrogen isotopic composition (δ2H) of plant compounds such as cellulose show lower δ2H values (are 2H-depleted) relative to plants grown heterotrophically in the dark. Therefore, it is logical to assume that photosynthetic reactions introduce 2H-depleted hydrogen atoms into carbohydrates. But where in the C reductive pathway (Calvin-Benson-Bassham cycle, CBB) does this occur? Or more interestingly, can we interpret the degree of 2H-depletion of plant compounds with respect to this key reaction(s)? With the recent resurgence of studies offering hydrogen isotopes as a new proxy for plant central carbon and energy metabolism, such a fundamental question seems pertinent to answer.We 1) examine the stereospecific mechanism of hydride transfer via NADP(H) catalyzed by oxidoreductases (ferredoxin-NADP+ reductase, glyceraldehyde 3-phosphate dehydrogenase) as a key reason why photoproduced NADPH is not directly the source of 2H-depletion of autotrophically produced carbohydrates, 2) reconcile the site-specific deuterium abundance pattern differences between C3 and C4 (NADP-ME) species of hydrogen bound to position C-4 in glucose, and 3) urge greater investment in position-specific and complimentary metabolomic analyses to progress the development of hydrogen isotopes as a metabolic proxy.
Project IMA: Lessons Learned from Building the Belgian Operational Seamless Ensemble Prediction System
Authors: De Cruz Lesley , Van Ginderachter Michiel , Reyniers Maarten , Deckmyn Alex , Dehmous Idir , De Kock Simon , Dewettinck Wout , Imhoff Ruben , Montandon Esteban , Reinoso-Rondinel Ricardo
Published: March 2024

 In recent years, several national meteorological services (NMSs) have invested considerable resources in the development of a seamless prediction system: rapidly updating forecasts that integrate the latest observations, covering timescales from minutes to days or longer ahead (e.g. DWD's SINFONY; FMI's ULJAS, MetOffice's IMPROVER and Geosphere Austria's SAPHIR) [1]. This move was motivated mainly by rising expectations from end users such as hydrological services, local authorities, the renewable energy sector and the general public. The development of seamless prediction systems was made possible thanks to the increasing availability of high-resolution observations, continuing advances in numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, nowcasting algorithms, and improved strategies to combine multiple information sources optimally. Moreover, the rise of AI/ML techniques in forecasting and nowcasting can further reduce the computational cost to generate frequently updating seamless operational forecast products. We present the journey of building the Belgian seamless prediction system at the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, with the working title "Project IMA". IMA uses both the deterministic INCA-BE and the probabilistic pysteps-BE systems to combine nowcasts with the ALARO and AROME configurations of the ACCORD NWP model. In the lessons learned along the way, we focus on what is often omitted, moving from research to operations, and integrating what we learn from operations back into research. We discuss the benefits of integrating new developments within the free and open-source software (FOSS) pysteps [2]. Our experience shows that using and contributing to FOSS not only leads to more transparency and reproducible, open science; it also enhances international collaboration and can benefit other users, including developing countries, bringing us a step closer to the ambitious goal of Early Warnings for All by 2027 [3]. References [1] Bojinski, Stephan, et al. "Towards nowcasting in Europe in 2030." Meteorological Applications 30.4 (2023): e2124.[2] Imhoff, Ruben O., et al. "Scale‐dependent blending of ensemble rainfall nowcasts and numerical weather prediction in the open‐source pysteps library." Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 149.753 (2023): 1335-1364.[3] WMO, "Early warnings for all: Executive action plan 2023-2027", 8 Nov 2022,  https://www.preventionweb.net/quick/75125.
Pathogen Transport and Fate Processes in the Environment at Different Scales
Authors: Bradford Scott
Published: March 2024

An understanding of pathogen transport and fate in the environment is needed to assess the risk of contamination of water and food resources, and to develop control strategies and treatment options.  This presentation discusses advances to better understand and predict the fate of pathogens in the subsurface at different spatial and temporal scales.   Adhesive interactions of pathogens with surfaces are demonstrated to be strong functions of nanoscale and microscale heterogeneities, interface geometry, and solution and solid phase chemistries.   Pathogen retention and release are shown to be sensitive to these factors as well as spatial variability in hydrodynamic conditions. Pore-network models have been used to account for retention processes, including attachment, straining, and hydrodynamic bridging.  Alternatively, machine learning algorithms have been trained on extensive databases to predict retention parameters.  Steady-state and transient release from episodic changes in solution chemistry and water saturation can greatly impact the long-term fate of pathogens. Ongoing efforts to account for governing physicochemical factors into continuum scale models at the column, hillslope, and watershed scales are highlighted. 
Improving the territorial awareness through paleontological heritage: preliminary results from Pietraroja site (southern Italy)
Authors: Amore Filomena Ornella , Argenio Carmen , Di Vito Mauro Antonio , Fistola Romano , Messina Mattia Yuri , Panarello Adolfo , Rastelli Andrea , Zingariello Ida , La Rocca Rosa Anna
Published: March 2024

This study is part of a larger research project (INSITE) - PRIN 2022 founded by MUR – Ministero dell’Università e della Ricerca. It is focused on two pilot sites to highlight the intrinsic potentialities of the paleontological heritage as a tool for valorising territorial resources, particularly referring to inner areas. These sites, Pietraroja (PTJ) and Le Ciampate del Diavolo (LCD), are areas of great paleontological importance, in the Campania region. The PTJ (Benevento) is the place where the fossil of a small dinosaur, Scypionix samniticus named CIRO, was found. The LCD ichnosite (Caserta) preserves elements that allow behavioural and structural evaluations of hominins of the middle Pleistocene. The main intention of the study refers to the attempt to broaden the spectrum of interest around these sites, suggesting mainstreaming the potentialities of the whole territorial context in which these sites are located. To identify innovative communication modalities and to develop a new knowledge model, we present here the reconstruction of Pietraroja paleoenvironment using technological tools. Using immersive technologies for virtual, augmented, and mixed-reality models, it is possible to build an immersive digital space in which the visitor will perceive the original environment and interact with the fossils' virtual avatar. The CIRO digital model was obtained based on complete information on the anatomical structure of Scipionyx samniticus and, through accurate 3D modeling, the digital model of the dinosaur was generated. The same approach was used to recreate the landscape and the marine and vegetation species.
Comparison of lipid biomarkers and their hydrogen isotopic values in submerged vascular macrophytes and charophytes
Authors: N. Santos Ricardo , Aichner Bernhard , B. Nelson Daniel , Hilt Sabine , N. Ladd Sarah
Published: March 2024

Submerged macrophytes incorporate lake water directly during lipid synthesis, making the δ2H values of their lipids a crucial tool for reconstructing past hydrology and lake states. Despite this significance, the lipid biomarkers of aquatic plants have received less attention compared to terrestrial plants. In particular, in the context of organic geochemical applications, submerged aquatic plants are typically considered as a single group, ignoring potential differences in lipid distributions and hydrogen isotope composition between vascular macrophytes and macroalgae such as charophytes. This gap limits the use of lipid biomarkers in lake sediments to understand past lake water isotopes and vegetation dynamics.In this study, we analyzed the lipid contents and δ2H values of fatty acids, n-alkanes, and the chlorophyll side-chain phytol from paired vascular macrophytes and charophytes collected from 12 oligo-mesotrophic hardwater lakes in northeast Germany. We aim to assess differences between macrophyte groups and their relation to environmental factors and lake water properties, such as lake water δ2H values and pH levels.Our preliminary results reveal a notable predominance of fatty acids over n-alkanes in both macrophyte groups. Vascular macrophytes tended to exhibit a higher, albeit variable, abundance of n-alkanes, fatty acids, and phytol concentrations compared to charophytes. The n-alkanes profiles were mainly comprised of mid to long-chain hydrocarbons (n-C23 to n-C27) and exhibited striking variability among macrophytes. Nonetheless, charophytes were notably characterized by a prominent dominance of n-C27. While the C16:0 fatty acid was the most abundant hydrocarbon in both macrophyte types, vascular macrophytes exhibit a greater abundance of long-chain (C24 toC30) fatty acids. However, our data revealed marked differences in the relative abundance of these long-chained compounds. The overall disparities in the lipid profiles point to distinct lipid biosynthesis pathways or environmental adaptations among the studied aquatic plants. Despite the differences in lipid distributions, no systematic differences were observed in the δ2H values for any studied compound class between the two macrophyte groups, Our results suggest that reconstructions of lake water isotopes based on δ2H values of aquatic plant lipids are unlikely to be influenced by changes in the relative contributions from vascular macrophytes and charophytes.
Multidisciplinary analysis of near fault observatory data: example from the Alto Tiberina fault (Northern Apennines, Italy)
Authors: Serpelloni Enrico , Zaccarelli Lucia , Faenza Licia , Caracausi Antonio , Almagro Vidal Carlos , Pintori Francesco , Mandler Eugenio , Chiaraluce Lauro
Published: March 2024

Earthquakes, intricate natural events spanning multiple spatio-temporal scales, necessitate a comprehensive understanding of the physical and chemical processes driving a broad spectrum of fault slip modes. To achieve this, the acquisition of multidisciplinary and dense datasets is imperative. Near Fault Observatories (NFOs) play a pivotal role by offering spatially and temporally dense, high-precision near-fault data, fostering the generation of novel observations and innovative scientific insights. However, the integration and interpretation of diverse datasets from various disciplines (geophysics, geochemistry, hydrology, etc.) present challenges. These datasets often consist of time-series depicting the temporal evolution of different parameters, sampling diverse temporal and spatial scales, depths, and the distinct or cumulative effects of various multiscale processes. In this presentation, we share outcomes from the INGV multidisciplinary project MUSE: M​ultiparametric and m​U​ltiscale ​S​tudy of ​Earthquake preparatory phase in the central and northern Apennines. Our emphasis lies in showcasing the approaches developed to analyze, integrate, and extract new knowledge from the EPOS Near Fault Observatory TABOO. This state-of-the-art observatory, managed by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV), boasts a dense network with an average inter-distance of approximately 5 km between multidisciplinary sensors. These sensors, deployed at the surface and within shallow boreholes, include seismometrical, geodetic, geochemical, hydrological, and strain stations. The project's core objective is to unravel the interconnections between different observables and explore the causal relationships among them. We will present the datasets, the methods employed, and discuss the significance of considering the interaction between fluid and solid geophysical processes in comprehending earthquake phenomena. Additionally, we will articulate the potential innovative scientific products that can arise from this research, contributing to a deeper understanding of earthquake processes.
Source apportionment and risk assessment of perfluorinated compounds in the world's third-longest river
Authors: Zhang Zulin , Li Tianyi , Chen Yulin
Published: March 2024

This study investigated the pollution of per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs)  in sediments from the main stream of the Yangtze River, the world's third-longest river. Totally, 13 of 15 PFASs were detected in the sediments and the total concentrations ranged from 0.058 ng/g to 0.89 ng/g dry weight (dw), with dominant contaminants by perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). Concentrations of PFASs in the downstream were higher than those of upstream and midstream. Four main sources were analysed using the Unmix model, textile treatments and food packaging dominantly accounted for approximately half of the total sources, followed by metal electroplating (26.8%), fluoropolymer products (16.3%) and fluororesin coatings (7.4%). Total organic carbon (TOC), total nitrogen (TN) and grain size had significant correlation with the concentration of PFASs in sediments, indicating that the physical and chemical parameters could directly affect the adsorption process of PFASs. In addition, anthropogenic factors such as urbanization rate and per capita GDP also had a direct impact on the distribution of PFASs. Environmental risk assessment showed that PFOS posed medium to low risks to the Yangtze River, which might require further action to reduce their pollution level in the environment.
The most consequential ethical decision for geoscience 
Authors: Koster Emlyn , Gibbard Philip
Published: March 2024

A geological definition of the Anthropocene, shorthand for humanity’s cumulative disruption of the Earth-Human Ecosystem, looms as the planet-and-people focused UN approaches its Summit of the Future in New York City on 22-23 September 2024. The International Union of Geological Sciences (IUGS) “aims to promote development of the Earth sciences through the support of broad-based scientific studies relevant to the entire Earth system”. With the UN recently declaring that the planet is in peril and in need of a rescue plan, Anthropocene considerations with a geoethical lens are urgently needed.Each potential new interval in the Geological Time Scale begins with a working group mandated by the International Stratigraphic Commission (ICS), in the case of the Anthropocene also by its Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy (SQS). The Anthropocene Working Group (AWG) was formed in 2009. In 2010, its first chair Jan Zalasiewicz with co-authors Mark Williams, Will Steffen and Paul Crutzen recognized that “the Anthropocene represents a new phase in both humankind and of the Earth, when natural forces and human forces become intertwined, so that the future of one determines the fate of the other”. In 2015, the AWG’s second and current chair Colin Waters with ten co-authors posed the question "Can nuclear weapons fallout mark the beginning of the Anthropocene Epoch?" in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. This was affirmed in 2019 and the AWG presented its recommendation to the SQS in early 2024. The remaining review and decision steps are the ICS and IUGS. Reflecting concerns of other geoscience scholars as well as of other professions and an anxious public, an opposing mindset advocates for an Anthropocene event that spans the cumulative and ongoing environmental impacts of Homo sapiens. It views Geological Time Scale protocols as unsuitable for archaeological and contemporary developments, regards unemotive references to humanity’s most abhorrent invention as distasteful, and visualizes the Anthropocene Event as valuably informing a new zeitgeist for our troubled world.In 1950 astronomer Fred Hoyle anticipated that humanity’s first view of the Earth from space would revolutionize the course of history. Insofar as a ‘giant leap of mankind’ did not result from NASA’s Apollo 1969 lunar mission with its estimated 600 million viewers, the Anthropocene Event fuels an opportunity for geoscience to inform a realistic outlook during NASA’s upcoming Artemis lunar mission. With unique knowledge of once pristine environments, current climate change and incipient sea level rise, ongoing biodiversity loss and ecosystem disruption, finite energy and mineral resources, the geoscience profession should arguably have already become a crucial asset in this troubled world.
Abrupt increase in Greenland melt governed by atmospheric wave change
Authors: Graversen Rune Grand , Heiskanen Tuomas , Bintanja Richard , Goelzer Heiko
Published: March 2024

Recent Greenland ice-sheet melt constitutes an alarming contribution to global sea-level rise. Observations indicate an approximate balance of the ice sheet until the late 1990s, after which a strong increase in melting occurred. This cannot be attributed linearly to gradually-increasing global warming. Instead the abrupt shift is suggested to be linked to atmospheric circulation changes, although causality is not fully understood. Here we show that changes of atmospheric waves over Greenland have significantly contributed to the shift into a strong melting state. This is evident from applying a newly-developed methodology effectively decomposing atmospheric flow patterns into parts associated with Rossby waves and smaller perturbations. A westerly-flow reduction, consistent with anthropogenic Arctic warming, affected transports by atmospheric waves and led to a decrease in precipitation and an increase in surface warming, contributing to ice-sheet mass loss, in particular over the southwestern regions. Hence the Greenland ice-sheet melt is an example of a climate response non-linearly coupled to global warming.
CMIP6 multi-model estimation of non-renewable groundwater abstractions during the 21st century
Authors: Costantini Maya , Decharme Bertrand , Colin Jeanne
Published: March 2024

The global water resource is composed of all the exploitable freshwater on Earth and is mainly stored in groundwater, which accounts for approximately one-third of the human freshwater withdrawals. One of the main indicators of groundwater water availability is its recharge (water flux entering groundwater). Indeed, knowledge of groundwater recharge dynamics is crucial to estimate the amount of water that can be withdrawn without depleting its reserves over the long term (renewable abstractions). Whether alone or combined with climate change, groundwater withdrawals can lead to non-renewable abstractions, increasing the risks of water scarcity and food insecurity in some regions.Here, the current and future non-renewable groundwater abstractions are estimated using climate-driven projections of groundwater recharge from an ensemble of 22 fully coupled global climate models participating in the CMIP6 exercise (without representation of groundwater withdrawals), and projections of irrigation water withdrawals from hydrological models. The projections cover the 1970-2100 period and follow three of the latest IPCC scenarios of greenhouse gas future evolution. Results show non-renewable groundwater abstractions for irrigation in heavily irrigated or arid regions. Despite an increase in global groundwater recharge due to climate change, this evolution is not uniform and presents large regional disparities. In addition, the number and size of the regions with non-renewable groundwater abstractions increase with climate change. These results are put in perspective with current agricultural production maps for the main cereals (data from FAO). This analysis highlights that regions experiencing the strongest non-renewable groundwater abstractions supply a large part of the world agricultural production.
Systemic human-biosphere-atmosphere monitoring and diagnostics
Authors: Li Wantong , Duveiller Gregory , Gans Fabian , Frank Dorothea , Reichstein Markus
Published: March 2024

Here we propose a planetary health diagnostic framework, which aims to track, understand, and characterize the Earth system during the onset and progression of both chronic change (such as climate change) and abrupt disruptions (stemming from climate extremes and socio-economic shocks). However, monitoring a single component of the Earth system to guide policy, but ignoring other essential components, could lead to misleading diagnostics and maladaptation. To gain insights into the integration of climate, biosphere, and society, we apply an interactive dimensionality reduction to the annual variability of multi-stream global data from 2003-2022, including data representing the biosphere and climate combined with national socio-economic indicators.We find that the interactions between biosphere, atmosphere and socio-economy can be captured by three principal axes, which cumulatively explain 17.3%, 22.8% and 24.5% of the variability condensed by non-interactive dimensionality reduction in each individual domain, respectively. First principal components are related to long-term trends in global warming, land surface dimming, and socio-technical development, while the second and third components are related to changes of other processes under climate and biospheric extremes and socioeconomic shocks. These processes include vegetation dynamics, land surface and atmospheric water demand, life and environmental inequality. We find distinct trajectories across countries with the most distinct cluster is Middle East and North Africa that exhibit climate extremes in 2010 and 2016, socio-financial shocks between 2010-2012 and COVID-19 in 2020. This study advocates for a data-driven paradigm to jointly monitor the recent trajectories of the biosphere, atmosphere, and society that could provide a better understanding and early warning of the state of the Earth system for human well-being.
Using Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) to enhance sub-seasonal drought predictions in the European Alps
Authors: Chang Annie Yuan-Yuan , Bogner Konrad , Ramos Maria-Helena , Harrigan Shaun , Domeisen Daniela I.V. , Zappa Massimiliano
Published: March 2024

In recent years, the European Alpine space has witnessed unprecedented low-flow conditions and drought events, affecting various economic sectors reliant on sufficient water availability, including hydropower production, navigation and transportation, agriculture, and tourism. As a result, there is an increasing need for decision-makers to have early warnings tailored to local low-flow conditions.The EU Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS) European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) has been instrumental in providing flood risk assessments across Europe with up to 15 days of lead time since 2012. Expanding its capabilities, the EFAS also generates long-range hydrological outlooks from sub-seasonal to seasonal horizons. Despite its original flood-centric design, previous investigations have revealed EFAS’s potential for simulating low-flow events. Building upon this finding, this study aims to leverage EFAS's anticipation capability to enhance the predictability of drought events in Alpine catchments, while providing support to trans-national operational services.In this study, we integrate the 46-day extended-range EFAS forecasts into a hybrid setup for 106 catchments in the European Alps. Many studies have demonstrated Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)’s capacity to produce skillful hydrological forecasts at various time scales. Here we employ the deep learning algorithm Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT), an algorithm that combines aspects of LSTM networks with the Transformer architecture. The Transformer's attention mechanisms can focus on relevant time steps across longer sequences enabling TFT to capture both local temporal patterns as well as global dependencies. The role of the TFT is to improve the accuracy of low-flow predictions and to understand their spatio-temporal evolution. In addition to EFAS data, we incorporate features such as European weather regime data, streamflow climatology, and hydropower proxies. We also consider catchment characteristic information including glacier coverage and lake proximity. By incorporating its various attention mechanisms, makes TFT a more explainable algorithm than LSTMs, which helps us understand the driving factor for the forecast skill. Our evaluation uses EFAS re-forecast data as the benchmark and measures the reliability of ensemble forecasts using metrics like the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score (CRPSS).Preliminary results show that a hybrid approach using the TFT algorithm can reduce the flashiness of EFAS during drought periods in some catchments, thereby improving drought predictability. Our findings will contribute to evaluating the potential of these forecasts for providing valuable information for skillful early warnings and assist in informing regional and local water resource management efforts in their decision-making.