bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Environment in East Asia and Southeast Asia: Lessons for Pakistan
(Keynote Address)
Authors: Qureshi Sarfraz Khan
Published: August 2018

It is a matter of great honour and pleasure for me to welcome
you all to the 12th Annual General Meeting and Conference of the
Pakistan Society of Development Economists. It is now widely understood
that despite past progress, Pakistan will be facing formidable
development challenges over the next two decades. This realisation calls
for a serious re-evaluation of the long-term development strategy as the
country approaches the 21st century with its particular opportunities
and challenges in a rapidly changing world economy. Accordingly, we also
understand that the research agenda of professional associations like
us, and of organisations like PIDE, must address forward-looking policy
options and trade-offs in critical areas for sustained economic and
social development, which has to be multi-disciplinary in nature. Of
course, PIDE has responded to the new needs with a professional
preparedness that only comes from long experience and timely perception,
and reorientated its research priorities. The traditional areas of
macro-economic research, sector studies, and the micro-economic
behaviour of economic agents remain strong. But, in addition now, we are
studying ethnicity, gender, technological change, regional development,
and environment as crucial areas of research. The shift in the research
focus is not only reflected in this year’s conference theme,
‘Macroeconomic Adjustment in the Era of Globalisation’, but also in the
topic of my Keynote Address.
Pakistan’s Development and Asian Experience (The Iqbal Memorial
Lecture)
Authors: Papanek Gustav F.
Published: August 2018

To summarise the conclusions of this paper: 1. Pakistan not
only has to deal with a cash flow problem, it also has to make the
difficult structural adjustment of living within its means, after nearly
50 years of failing to do so. 2. Despite large resource inflows and
periods of good economic management Pakistan’s per capita growth has
been less than half of that in rapidly growing Asian economies. The
country has therefore failed to reduce poverty as much as it could have.
3. This performance was the result of inadequate export growth, savings
and attractiveness to foreign private investment. Two periods of good
economic management show the impressive potential of the economy. 4. The
heart of an appropriate economic strategy is to make non-traditional
exports more profitable. 5. It is appropriate to emphasise the need for
further decontrol and greater reliance on the market. But government has
an important role in providing infant industry incentives for exports
and compensating for externalities. 6. To maintain political support for
reforms government must allocate fairly the pain and gains, and reduce
corruption.
Future of Irrigation and Drainage in Pakistan
Authors: Faruqee Rashid
Published: August 2018

The future of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on the future of
its irrigation and drainage system, which currently faces major
problems. Increasing water logging and salinity, overexploitation of
fresh groundwater, low efficiency in delivering and use, inequitable
distribution, unreliable delivery, and insufficient cost recovery are
some of these problems. These problems, however, are only symptoms of a
deeper problem—the treatment by the government of irrigation water as a
public good. Such a treatment has caused inefficient pricing of water,
misallocation of resources and widespread rent-seeking behaviour. The
future strategy for irrigation and drainage will require a major change
in the public sector’s approach. An efficient self-sustaining irrigation
and drainage system can be achieved only by promoting market-determined
incentives for improved management of the irrigation and drainage
services and giving the private sector a greater stake in the system.
The process could begin by developing commercially-oriented public
utilities on a canal-command basis, developing suitable farmer
organisations around distributaries/minors, formalising water rights,
developing autonomous provincial water authorities, and developing
provincial regulatory bodies for regulating public utilities, water
rights, and groundwater resources.
Economic Growth of Rich and Poor Countries: A Social Accounting
Matrix Approach
Authors: Cohen S.I.
Published: August 2018

Many recent empirical studies on comparative growth focus on
the supply side determinants of growth. This paper highlights the
insights to be gained from employing a demand-determined growth model. A
modelling framework along the Social Accounting Matrix, empirically
analysed for a group of sixteen countries at different stages of
economic development, gives support to the convergence
thesis.
Foreign Direct Investment in Pakistan: Policies and
Trends
Authors: Khan Ashfaque H.
Published: August 2018

Recent years have seen a sharp change in the attitude of
developing countries regarding Foreign Direct Investment (FDI).. The
growing balance-of-payments difficulties as well as the decline in
concessional ajd. have forced many developing countries to reassess
their stances on FOI and to take substantial unilateral steps to
Iiberalise their inward POI regimes. In spite of liberalising the inward
FOI regime, tempering or removal of obstacles to foreign investors, and
according liberal incentives, Pakistan's has been a lacklustre
performance in attracting FDI. This paper attempts to find out the
reasons why Pakistan has not been able to attract sufficiently large FOI
despite liberalisation measures. The analysis identifies a number of
factors responsible for low FDI in Pakistan. These include the lack of
political stability particularly during the last eight years, and
unsatisfactory law and order situation particularly in the. city of
Karachi, the largest industrial and commercial centre and the only port
of the country. The macroeconomiC imbalances and the slowing down of
economic activity tog~ther with inconsistent economic policies have also
discouraged foreign investors to increase their participation in
Pakistan. The slow bureaucratic process, inappropriate business
environment, and inadequate infrastructure facilities have played their
role in discouraging foreign . investors to undertake investment
initiative in Pakistan. The lack of trained, educated, and disciplined
labour force, along with complicated and overprotective labour laws,
have inhibited business expansion and frightened away productive
investment. The cultural and social taboos as well as the quality of
life are not conducive to attracting foreign investors to Pakistan. The
lack of welcome to foreign investors by government agencies and
officials has also been a problem.
Pakistan’s Development: Successes, Failures, and Future Tasks
(Presidential Remarks)
Authors: Qureshi Sarfraz Khan
Published: August 2018

It is an honour for me as President of the Pakistan Society of
Development Economists to welcome you to the 13th Annual General Meeting
and Conference of the Society. I consider it a great privilege to do so
as this Meeting coincides with the Golden Jubilee celebrations of the
state of Pakistan, a state which emerged on the map of the postwar world
as a result of the Muslim freedom movement in the Indian Subcontinent.
Fifty years to the date, we have been jubilant about it, and both as
citizens of Pakistan and professionals in the social sciences we have
also been thoughtful about it. We are trying to see what development has
meant in Pakistan in the past half century. As there are so many
dimensions that the subject has now come to have since its rather
simplistic beginnings, we thought the Golden Jubilee of Pakistan to be
an appropriate occasion for such stock-taking.
Assessing Water Charges under Changing Institutional Irrigation
Management in Pakistan: A Methodological Framework
Authors: Ul Hasan Mehmood , Chaudry M Ghaffar
Published: August 2018

The Government of Pakistan has opted for institutional reforms
for canal irrigation system of the country with a view to undertaking
efficient operation and maintenance of the system and improving cost
recovery. In the new reforms, the Farmers’ Organisations will manage
distributaries and minors and pay the cost of upstream water in full.
The complex hierarchy of the system poses serious challenges for working
out the cost of water delivery for various channels. The paper presents
a methodological framework for assessing the recoverable O&M costs
from the farmers benefiting from an irrigation network. Hakra 4-R
Distributary in the Eastern Sadiqia Canal serves as an illustration. The
methodology shows how the beneficiary farmers can share the costs of the
system. Simple methods are provided for working out water rates on the
basis of volume of water received, commanded area, and duration of the
irrigation turn. Out of the three methods, the area-based and time-based
water rates have comparative advantage over the volumetric water rates
owing to the resource endowments of the farmers.
T. Nirmala Devi. Population Growth and Development in SAARC. New
Delhi: South Asian Publishers, 1996. Hardbound. Indian Rs 160.00
Authors: Mahmood Naushin
Published: August 2018

The complex relationship between population growth and
socio-economic development has long been debated. The arguments about
the direction and causality of the relationship between population
growth and development indicators remain inconclusive. The available
literature on the subject reflects three main ideological groups.
Nationalists see population growth as a stimulus to economic
development, whereas the neo-Malthusians see it the other way round. The
Marxists, however, see the population problem being solved in terms of
development through a socialist model.
Sangeetha Purshothaman. The Empowerment of Women in India—
Grassroots Women’s Network and the State. New Delhi: Sage Publications,
1998. Hardbound. Indian Rs 450.00. Paperback. Indian Rs 250.00. 384
pages.
Authors: Siddiqui Rehana
Published: August 2018

This study discusses the impact of the new organisational
structure emerging in India to improve the status of rural women. The
objectives of the study are twofold: first, it intends to explore the
possibility of small organisations working together to have an impact at
the local level; the second issue is the sustainability of such an
arrangement. The study concentrates on the experience of the Swayam
Shaikshan Prayog (SSP) in the Indian state of Maharashtra. The basic
theme of this organisational set-up is that women know best what they
want and what solutions work for them. The SSP’s networking process
allows for an organisation which can bargain, interface with, and
transfer resources from the state to poor women, as well as maintain the
flexibility to adapt to statewide policy changes and the local
conditions faced by them.
Diarrhoea Morbidity Differentials among Children in
Pakistan
Authors: Arif G. M. , Ibrahim Sabiha
Published: August 2018

The present study used the 1995-96 Pakistan Integrated
Household Survey data to determine the socio-economic, demographic, and
environmental covariates of both prevalence and duration of diarrhoea
among children under five in Pakistan. Seven logit models were estimated
to determine factors influencing the probability of occurrence of
diarrhoea. Seven Proportional Hazards Models were used to examine
factors determining the duration of diarrhoea. Results revealed that
around 20 percent of children under five suffered from diarrhoea in the
30 days prior to the survey. Child’s age was negatively associated with
diarrhoea morbidity. Children who had measles immunisation were less
likely than children without this immunisation to have diarrhoea. The
study also revealed that in controlling the occurrence of diarrhoea
among children, sanitation facilities seemed to be more important than
the supply of drinking-water. With respect to the duration of diarrhoea,
the hazard models showed that younger children, particularly under the
age of two, were relatively at a greater risk to suffer from longer
diarrhoea episode. The use of Nimkol (ORT) showed a significant and
positive effect on recovering quickly from the diarrhoea morbidity. The
findings of the study suggest that mothers should be given health
education so that they are familiar with the simply prepared treatment,
Nimkol, and have knowledge about personal hygiene, and specially of
preparing supplementary foods for children.
Determinants of Personal Earnings in Pakistan: Findings from the
Labour Force Survey 1993-94
Authors: Nasir Zafar Mueen
Published: August 2018

The paper explores the role of human and non-human capital
factors in determining the earnings of workers in Pakistan. The Labour
Force Survey data 1993-94, which provides detailed information about
workers, has been used for this analysis. Ordinary least squares
estimation technique has been utilised for the analysis. The analysis is
carried out separately for male and female workers. It is found that in
human capital variables, education plays a dominant role in wage
determination. In non-human capital factors, occupation and size of the
establishments are found to be relevant variables. Other important
variables include regional location and technical training. The sample
selection bias has been observed for female workers whereas no problem
has been observed for male workers, and the bias has been corrected by
using the Heckman procedure, though both corrected and uncorrected
results are reported. Important conclusions and policy implications are
discussed at the end.
Stochastic Frontier and Technical Efficiency of Farms in
Irrigated Areas of Pakistan's Punjab
Authors: Burki Abid A. , Shah Haq Nawaz
Published: August 2018

This paper presents new evidence on technical efficiency and
its sources by examining the cost behaviour of 387 farms and whole-farm
data from five irrigated districts of Punjab. Fitting translog variable
cost frontier we find that technical inefficiency raises the cost of
average sample farms by 24 percent that could have been saved had the
farms been technically efficient. Our results enable us to conclude that
farm efficiency is positively related to formal schooling of farm
operators, abundance of canal water, and head reaches of mogha, and
negatively to farm size, while the age of farm operators has no effect
on efficiency.
A Methodological Note on a Stochastic Frontier Model for the
Analysis of the Effects of Quality of Irrigation Water on Crop
Yields
Authors: Battese George E.
Published: August 2018

A stochastic frontier model is proposed for analysis of crop
yields, which considers the effects of differing quality of irrigation
water, in addition to different inputs and factors associated with
technical inefficiency of production. The parameters of the production
frontier involved are assumed to be a function of other variables, which
measure the quality of the irrigation water.
Rama V. Baru. Private Health Care in India: Social
Characteristics and Trends. New Delhi: Sage Publications, 1998.
Hardback. Indian Rs 295.00. 184 pages.
Authors: Nazli Samina
Published: August 2018

The provision of health care has been recognised as a
fundamental human right. Consequently, developed countries incur heavy
expenditures in the provision of health care facilities to their
citizens. For example, Canada’s public expenditure on health as a
percentage of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is 6.9 percent, Norway’s is
6.6 percent, the USA’s is 6.5 percent, and Japan’s is 5.6 percent. On
the other end of the scale are the developing countries such as Niger,
which spends 1.6 percent of its GDP on health, Mozambique 1 percent,
Haiti 1.3 percent, and Senegal 1.2 percent. In South Asia, Pakistan
spends 0.8 percent and India 0.7 percent of their GDP, respectively, on
health provision.
Reidar Dale. Evaluation of Frameworks for Development Programmes
and Projects. New Delhi: Sage Publications, 1998. Hardback. Indian Rs
275.00. 150 pages.
Authors: Mahmood Mir Annice
Published: August 2018

A pre-requisite for growth is the identification, appraisal,
implementation, and evaluation of sound programmes and projects in the
economy. This whole process has become very technical in nature, with
each stage mentioned above having to undergo a rigorous examination. The
focus of this book, however, is limited to that of the evaluation stage,
what development practitioners call the last stage in the project cycle.
More specifically, the question of evaluation is not only limited to
projects but also to programmes and examines the main topics of
evaluations such as context, perspectives, methods, and management. This
arranges the subject matter of the book in a systematic and cohesive
manner.
Rural Poverty and Land Degradation: A Review of the Current State
of Knowledge
Authors: Malik Sohail Jehangir , Nazli Hina
Published: August 2018

By highlighting the lack of rigorous evidence and calling for
a greater understanding of the interaction of the two processes, a
recent study [Nelson et al. (1997)] has called into question the strong
perception that poverty is both a consequence as well as a cause of
resource degradation.1 This perception which is widely held is strongly
evident in the writings of the multilateral development agencies such as
the World Bank (1990) and IFAD (1992) and exists despite extensive
reviews which indicate that the short- and long-term implications of
land degradation are not very clear [see Scherr and Yadav (1995)].
Similarly, while knowledge about poverty is expanding rapidly, thanks in
large parts to the massive international focus and resources brought to
bear on its understanding in the past
ten.........................
Reform Issues in Tax Policy and Tax Administration for
Self-reliant Development
Authors: Khan Ahmad
Published: August 2018

Similar to most countries, objectives of the taxation system
in Pakistan are not well-defined. The stated objectives include resource
generation, promoting arealsectorspecific economic activities,
discouraging undesired imports/production, and encouraging savings and
investment. These objectives have been met through a variety of tax
concessions and exemptions, rebates and credits, and differentiated tax
rates and tariffs. The revenue short falls/leakages resulting from
preferential tax treatment of the desired activities were offset through
appropriate changes in various fiscal instruments, e.g. high tax rates
and tariffs, regulatory duties, extended withholding and presumptive
taxes, excise duties on services, and many more. These measures, in
turn, have complicated the taxation system and adversely affected the
equity, neutrality and progressivity thereof.
Population Planning in Pakistan: How to Meet the
Challenge?
Authors: Ali Syed Mubashir , Zahid G. Mustafa
Published: August 2018

The recent decline in the total fertility rate (TFR)• borne
out by recent surveys and supported by the results of the 1998
population census of Pakistan (see Table 1) indicates that onset of
fertility transition has been made in Pakistan. However, still these
rates (5.3 children) excepting Nepal (5,4 children) are the highest in
this region. A high proportion of young population (43 percent under 15
years) resulting in population momentum has made the situation grimmer
as the task of achieving zero population growth seems to be many decades
away even after attaining replacement level fertility. As per United
Nations projections, Pakistan in 2050, will leave behind United States,
Indonesia, Brazil and Russia and will become the third most populous
country of the world with a population of 380 million.
Population Growth and Development Prospects for Pakistan
Authors: Sidddiqui Fakhari A.
Published: August 2018

Since its founding Pakistan has exhibited a continuously high
rate of population growth. When measured by population size it has moved
from the thirteenth largest country in 1950 to the seventh largest
country in 1996 (Table 1). Today Pakistan exhibits the highest rate of
growth among the world's largest countries, and according to some
projections will become the third most populated country in the world by
the year 2050 [United Nations (1998)]. Given the country's present
resources, this magnitude of population growth has serious implications
for the social and economic well-being of the people of Pakistan. A
staggering statistic shows that the area now constituting Pakistan which
had only 16.6 million people at the turn of the century, will surpass
the 150 million mark by the new millennium (less than a year away).
Among the projected top ten contributors to world population growth
during 1995-2000, Pakistan ranks third in absolute numbers (Table 2),
and number one in rate of growth. Based on the population of 1996 (Table
1) and the projected absolute population increase (Table 2), the
population of Pakistan is projected absolute population increase (Table
2), the population of Pakistan is projected to grow at a rate more than
300 percent faster than China and 170 percent faster than India. In
absolute and relative terms Pakistan's population growth is unusually
high.
The Experience of Trade Liberalisation in Pakistan
Authors: Khan Ashfaque H.
Published: August 2018

Trade policies in developing countries have been at the
centre-stage of analysis for the past several decades. The desire for
rapid economic growth in developing countries raised many question about
the relationship between trade and growth [Krueger (1997a)]. It is, by
now, well-established that there exists a strong positive relationship
between export growth and overall economic growth in general and
manufactured export growth and overall economic growth in particular.1
Those countries that have been most successful in expanding their
manufactured exports have not only achieved higher economic growth but
also succeeded in alleviating poverty? This has indeed been the case in
East Asia [ADB (1997)]. The core question therefore is: which trade
strategies have enabled countries to expand exports in general and
manufactured exports in particular?
Stylised Facts of Household Savings: Findings from the IDES
1993-94
Authors: Khan Ashfaque H. , Nasir Zafar Mueen
Published: August 2018

Saving, the fraction of national income that is not spent on
current consumption, has long been widely regarded as a key factor in
economic growth.1 The saving rate along with the incremental
capital-output ratio determine the growth rate of the economy in the
Harrod-Domar Model framework. The critical role of saving in capital
accumulation and economic development is also recognised in the
"two-gap" and classical growth models. For capital accumulation to
result in sustained growth, it must be supported by adequate
domestic/national savings. This has been clearly demonstrated by the
extra-ordinary performance of the East Asian economies. While there have
been brief periods of significant inflow of external financial resources
to some developing countries in the past, foreign savings cannot be
expected to provide a sustainable basis for financing domestic
investment. Raising' national saving rate is particularly essential to
developing countries with a heavy debt service burden and limited
capacity to obtain loans in foreign capital markets. The 1995 Mexican
crisis showed, among other things, that low domestic savings can raise
the probability of sudden capital outflows, and sharpen their negative
consequences. In a financially integrated world, high national/domestic
savings contribute to macro economic stability which is itself a
powerful growth factor. Indeed, any macro economic adjustment programmes
oriented to the resumption of long-run growth invariably emphasise the
need to expand domestic savings.
Regulatory Issues in Pakistan Telecommunication
Authors: Quershi Sarfaraz Khan
Published: August 2018

Growth in telecom infrastructure and provision of modern
telecom services to consumers at a cost based tariff helps growth of
national economy. Modern telecoms serve as the engine of growth of
national economy. Following the global trends of liberalisation and
deregulation in telecoms monopolies which have thus far been providing
inefficient communication at a greedily high tariffs are falling apart.
Mergers in telecoms are not for increasing the size of the monopoly but
to provide more efficient and cost effective services to the consumers.
In Pakistan the erstwhile T&T department played a needful role at
its time. Conversion of the department into a corporation and then into
a company were steps necessary for following the global trends. Need now
is to continue this trend further, eliminate the monopolistic approach
by allowing more players in the field thus permitting the market forces
to decide the provision of better quality of modern services at
competitive price.
Sources of Earnings Differentials Among Migrants and
Natives
Authors: Ahmed Ather Maqsood
Published: August 2018

The theory of human capital postulates that earnings of
different categories of workers, be they male or female, black or white,
unionised or non-unionised depend on the level of human capital
endowment of these individuals [Becker (1964) and Mineer (1974)].
Besides educational attainment and on-the-job experience, part of the
earnings differential, at lest in the short run, can also result from
market imperfections such as restrictions on factor mobility or other
artificial distortions. However, despite concerted efforts by public and
social institutions to remove social injustice, the automatic .long run
market clearance as envisaged by classical economists is not always
there. It is not uncommon to find workers with identical background and
skills receiving differentials treatment in terms of wages and other
rewards. This suggests that unobservable personal characteristics are
also positively valued at the market and that the market has a "taste"
for discrimination.! The theory of discrimination thus hypothesises that
differential wages ,can exit if market differentiates and treats
distinct categories of workers on the basis of race, gender or similar
categorisations [Becker (1957)].
The Urban Informal Sector in an Adjusting Economy: The Case of
Pakistan
Authors: Sargana Muhammad Arif
Published: August 2018

The concept of the informal sector has gained popularity since
the well-known study by International Labour Organisation [ILO] in 1972
Kenya. Since then it has become a centre stage in policy discussion
regarding unemployment and poverty alleviation. Though economists are
still not able to give an authentic and unanimous definition of the
informal sector, it is commonly known as the non-regulated sector of the
economy. Despite the fact that the informal sector provides a large
chunk of GDP and employment in the national economy, this sector is very
much neglected in Pakistan. A few studies have been conducted to measure
the size and the role of urban informal sector in past. However, the
employment estimates provided by these studies have always been
controversial. In addition, in all of these studies attention has been
focused mainly to the manufacturing sector. Though the importance of the
manufacturing sector cannot be denied, the services sector is also of
significant importance as well, however it has received relatively less
attention in the past. In this study, sufficient attention has been
given to this neglected sector and focus is given to its role in
employment in the urban informal sector. As Pakistan is a signatory of
the World Bank and IMF’s stabilisation and structural adjustment
programmes, which aim to reduce the budget deficit and restructuring of
public sector employment, in the compliance with these programmes,
retrenchment policies have been adopted in the government jobs by the
respective governments. It is estimated that employment in the public
sector has declined by about 10.6 per cent in period 1990 to 1992 only
[Kemal.1995]. All of these measures have exacerbated the employment
situation in Pakistan. In the light of above mentioned facts, it may be
viewed that the urban informal sector has become more important in
absorbing this surplus labour.
Globalisation: Threat or Opportunity? (The Iqbal Memorial
Lecture)
Authors: Streeten Paul
Published: August 2018

Globalisation is transfonning trade, finance, employment,
migration, technology, communications, the environment, social systems,
ways of living, cultures, and patterns of governance. The growth of
technology and globalisation mutually reinforce each other. Much of the
process of g1obalisation is historically not unprecedented, but the
technology, the setting, the absence of a single dominant centre, and
certain features such as the replacement of trade of raw materials for
manufactured products by largely intra-sectoral trade, are new.
International interdependence is growing, and to some extent and
partially, so is international integration. But it is accompanied by
disintegration and fragmentation of other parts. Partial international
integration (mainly of the elites), without global policies, leads to
national social disintegration. Is globalisation a threat to humanity or
an opportunity? A tentative balance sheet is drawn up. Markets, to be
efficient, have to be embedded in a framework that enables their
productive potential to flourish and to be used for socially and
ecologically sustainable development. The reduced power of national
governments combined with the spread of world-wide free markets and
technological innovation without a corresponding authority to regulate
them and hold them accountable has contributed to the marginalisation of
large regions and groups of people. The state has become to some extent
ungovernable, while the global society is ungoverned. Unemployment,-
poverty, inequality and alienation are increasing, partly (though not
solely) as a result of this process. Crimes, drugs, terrorism, violence,
civil wars, diseases, and environmental destruction are also becoming
globalised. In the struggle of international competition capital,
technology and high skills dominate the more readily dispensable factors
unskilled labour and the environment. Cost reductions are carried out
and labour and nature suffer.
Prime Minister's 2010 Programme: Bridge to the 21st Century
(Keynote Address)
Authors: Iqbal Ahsan
Published: August 2018

It is indeed a unique opportunity for me to present this
Keynote Address to this largest gathering of the development economists
in Pakistan-a gathering keen to share experiences, and learn lessons,
and bringing, I hope, new ideas to development, which remains a
challenge. This meeting is taking place at a time when we are at the
threshold of the Twenty-first Century. At this important occasion, we
must not forget the vision of development given to us by the Father of
our Nation. On the eve of Independence, the Quaid-i-Azam held out a
glorious vision for Pakistan's future, a vision of a prosperous and
tolerant people, a responsible government free from corruption and,
nepotism, and an enlightened society based on the Islamic values
ofjustice and equity. That was the spirit of 1947. Sad to admit that
fifty-one years later, Pakistan is nowhere close to that vision. The
country's respectable economic growth and the phenomenal expansion of
infrastructure have justifiably been lauded, but they have not helped to
create a society that the founders had imagined. The society is still
mired in ignorance, disease, poverty, intolerance, corruption,
injustice, and backwardness, all attributes of
non-development.
Anthropometric Patterns and Correlates of Growth Attainment in Under-five Pakistani Children
Authors: Sabiha Ibrahim
Published: August 2018

This study investigates the question whether socio-economic, demographic and environmental variables within a household will affect the growth patterns of under-five Pakistani children. It also examines whether there are differentials in the growth patterns of these children by age and gender. Using the 1990-91 Demographic and Health Survey data, the focus is on children under-five years, the total children identified were 5902 while anthropometric measurement to assess the growth status was available for 4079 children. The results showed that nearly all the socio-demographic, economic and environmental variables were significantly associated with H/A and Wt/A. Children most likely to be stunted and underweight were those whose mothers were aged 40-44 years, mothers with no education, children from rural areas and children with birth interval 24 months, mother’s age, her education and having toilet facilities in the house positively associated with growth attainment. For the Weight/A model succeeding birth interval >24 months, mother’s age, her education and having toilet facilities and electricity in the house, and living in Punjab and NWFP province positively associated with growth attainment. This study will be useful for policy-makers to develop programmes and guidelines needed to improve those socio-economic, demographic and environmental factors, responsible for the poor nutritional status of children under-five years of age in Pakistan.
Rekha Wazir. The Gender Gap in Basic Education: NGOs as Change Agents. New Delhi: Sage Publications, 2000. Indian Rs 225.00 (Paper), Rs 395.00 (Cloth) 286 pages.
Authors: Rashida Haq
Published: August 2018

In the Constitution of India in 1951 it was set out that… “the State shall endeavour to provide within a period of ten years from the commencement of this Constitution, for free and compulsory education for all children until they complete the age of fourteen years”. But at the turn of the century nearly 424 million are still illiterate while it is estimated that nearly 35 million children in the age of 6-10 years age group are still out of school. The statistics for female education make even more dismal reading. Although the field of education is considered to be the prime responsibility of the State yet there is mushrooming growth of non-governmental organisations (NGOs). The impact of these NGOs is rarely reflected in overall educational performance and their approach is seldom transferred to the mainstream.
Exchange Rate and Inflation Dynamics
Authors: Eatzaz Ahmad
Published: August 2018

This paper studies simultaneous determination of nominal exchange rate and domestic price level in Pakistan. The estimated model contains sufficient built-in dynamics to trace the pattern and speed of adjustment in the two variables in response to temporary or permanent shocks. The two domestic shocks considered in the paper are monetary and real shocks, while the three external shocks considered are import price, export price and foreign exchange reserves shocks. The study finds that the impact period effects of temporary shock on price level and exchange rate are divergent, while the long run effects are convergent. This means that, while purchasing power parity does not hold in the short run, there is a tendency in the system to regain relative parity in the long run. Further more continuation of shocks can produce a persistent but non-accelerating divergence between inflation rate and the rate of devaluation. Therefore the parity holds in a weaker sense that is for the marginal fluctuations in the rates of changes in price level and exchange rate over time. It is also observed that the direction of temporary disparity between the rates of inflation and devaluation depends crucially on the origin of the shock. The shocks with direct effect on price level (exchange rate) have more pronounced effects on the rate of inflation (devaluation). Finally, the relationship between price level and exchange rate is not unidirectional, though the short run effect of devaluation on inflation is smaller than the effect of inflation on devaluation. Since movements in exchange rate are mostly driven by price inflation, the practice of using exchange rate as an independent instrument is not sustainable in the presence of inflation. From policy perspective both the inflation and exchange rate could be considered as interrelated targets while focusing on the instruments that are in effective control of policy-makers, such as money supply.
Private Sector Investment in Agricultural Research in Pakistan
Authors: Mumtaz Ahmad  , Joseph G. Nagy
Published: August 2018

Private sector investment in agricultural research in Pakistan, although growing in importance, is limited at present and with a few exceptions, has not had a significant impact on agricultural production and productivity. The publicly funded agricultural research system has made the major contribution to increases in production and productivity growth. However the impressive gains of the past cannot be achieved with the current underfunded public research system which makes it all the more important for private sector investment in agricultural research to achieve its full potential in areas of its comparative advantage. This paper identifies the magnitude of private sector agricultural research investment in Pakistan and discusses some of the current policy constraints that hamper its scope. Information was gathered through informal and formal surveys of multinational and national firms conducting agricultural research in Pakistan in the areas of inputs and product processing. Although private sector investment in agricultural research has more than doubled in the past ten years, uncertainty persists surrounding privatisation issues, unresolved intellectual property rights regulation, and the enforcement of seed certification and truth-in-labelling rules and regulations.
Y2K Interruption: Can the Doomsday Scenario Be Averted?
Authors: Arshad Nabeela , Nayab Durr-e- , Minhas Arshad J.
Published: August 2018

The management philosophy until recent years has been to
replace the workers with computers, which are available 24 hours a day,
need no benefits, no insurance and never complain. But as the year 2000
approached, along with it came the fear of the millennium bug, generally
known as Y2K, and the computers threatened to strike!!!! Y2K, though an
abbreviation of year 2000, generally refers to the computer glitches
which are associated with the year 2000. Computer companies, in order to
save memory and money, adopted a voluntary standard in the beginning of
the computer era that all computers automatically convert any year
designated by two numbers such as 99 into 1999 by adding the digits 19.
This saved enormous amount of memory, and thus money, because large
databases containing birth dates or other dates only needed to contain
the last two digits such as 65 or 86. But it also created a built in
flaw that could make the computers inoperable from January 2000. The
problem is that most of these old computers are programmed to convert 00
(for the year 2000) into 1900 and not 2000. The trouble could therefore,
arise when the systems had to deal with dates outside the 1900s. In
2000, for example a programme that calculates the age of a person born
in 1965 will subtract 65 from 00 and get -65.
The Impact of Changes in Exchange Rate on Prices: A Case Study of
Pakistan
Authors: Siddiqui Rehana , Akhtar Naeem
Published: August 2018

Rapid changes in prices are of concern in almost all countries
since the 1970s. However, the issue is of serious concern in developing
countries where imported inflation is seen to be driving domestic
inflation resulting in limited effectiveness of domestic policies to
control inflation. Like most developing countries, in Pakistan also, the
domestic price level started rising from the mid-1970s. The exchange
rate started depreciating continuously from the early 1980s.1 Continuous
devaluation of currency and inflation in the 1980s seems to suggest a
correlation between the two variables. The empirical studies, like Rana
and Dowling (1983) suggest that foreign inflation was the most
significant factor in explaining changes in the domestic price level in
nine Asian less developed countries during 1973-79. This suggests that,
while, these countries could do little to control inflation, the
policies of other countries, particularly their major trading partners,
had a significant impact on their domestic prices. A simultaneous
relationship between the inflation rate and the exchange rate changes is
viewed by certain researchers to exist. [Cooper (1971) and Krugman and
Taylor (1978).]
Fiscal Deficits and Debt Dimensions of Pakistan
Authors: Ishfaq Muhammad , Chaudhary M. A.
Published: August 2018

Pakistan continues to suffer from a syndrome of high fiscal
deficits and severe incidence of debt. Its annual fiscal deficit has
stayed constantly at over 6 percent of GDP especially since 1990
[Pakistan (1997-98)]. The prevalence of such a high fiscal deficit over
the years in a row has propelled increased borrowing from both internal
and external sources to cover the resource gap. With inadequate
improvement in the repayment capacity of the country debt has continued
to accumulate at a massive rate. Serving as the cause and effect of each
other, the volumes of both the fiscal deficit and debt have soared
continuously. The most devastating consequence of high fiscal deficit
and soaring debt has been the continuous accrual of massive
debt-servicing. In fact, both the debt and debt-servicing have reached
unaffordable limits. How to alleviate this situation has become the
foremost issue of the country. While complete elimination of all the
debt and thereby debt-servicing may not be easy to accomplish in the
short run, efforts are needed to systematically bring the fiscal deficit
down to a minimum affordable limit. What may be the minimum financeable
level of fiscal deficit and how it may be reduced to that level are the
issues addressed in this paper.
The Time Profile of the Cost Structure in Pakistan’s
Manufacturing Sector
Authors: Ahmad Eatzaz , Idrees Muhammad
Published: August 2018

The manufacturing sector of Pakistan has at times played the
role of the leading sector of the economy. The successful experience of
planned growth in the 1960s owes much to the special attention paid to
the growth of manufacturing sector. Policies like the export bonus
scheme, tax-holidays, subsidised import of capital, easy and subsidised
loans and over-valued exchange rate, resulted in a substantial growth in
the sector. However, with over-protection of the sector, nationalisation
of some of the major industries in the 1970s and, later-on,
over-employment in the nationalised industries, the performance of the
sector started to deteriorate gradually. It is now widely believed that
many of the manufacturing industries in Pakistan have become inefficient
because they have not been exposed to competitive environment due to
protective and distortionary policies.
Recent Evidence on Farm Size and Land Productivity: Implications
for Public Policy
Authors: Nasir Munir Ahmad , Qureshi Sarfraz Khan
Published: August 2018

Agricultural productivity is low in most of the developing
countries including Pakistan. Moreover, slow and meandering agricultural
growth is unable to keep pace with the fast and persistently growing
population pressure in these countries. That in turn, has, continued to
result in malnutrition and recurrent famines [Cornia (1985)]. Worse than
this are the results of an ILO (1977) study, which has shown that food
consumption inequalities have actually increased overtime not only in
the food deficit countries but also in countries experiencing rapid
agricultural growth. This points to the ever-hanging shadows of food
deficiency and resulting malnutrition over the countries characterised
by slow or negative growth in per capita food production and perverted
income distribution [Cornia (1985)]. The only choice with these
countries is to enhance food production and provide better access to
food consumption for the poor masses.
Participatory Irrigation Management and its Financial Viability:
A Case Study
Authors: Jehangir Waqar A. , Mudasser M. , Hussain Zakir
Published: August 2018

Water is a key input of agriculture. In the past, the area
under cultivation was small and there was less stress on farmers to grow
more and more of each crop. Water was considered a free good. The
situation has changed since. The increase in cropping intensity has led
to a rise in the demand for irrigation water. Water is not a free good
any more. The provision of irrigation water to the farmer’s fields is
going to be costlier. The Government of Pakistan is spending heavily on
the operation and maintenance of the irrigation system yet shortage of
funds is a major reason for deferred maintenance, which threatens the
operational integrity of the irrigation system [World Bank (1988) and
Haq (1995)]. The shortfall in O&M funding was estimated to be more
than 24 percent in 1993 [World Bank (1994)]. As poor O&M has direct
effect on the productivity of agriculture, indirectly it affects the
whole economy [Carruthers (1981)]. The allocation of funds for the
increasing O&M costs is becoming a problem for the Government of
Pakistan with every successive year. One logical answer to this problem
is to increase abiana1 fees from the users of irrigation water supplies.
The revenue collected through abiana may be used for O&M purposes,
but it has been reported that the revenue collection is far less than
the expenditures incurred. Resultantly the gap has been increasing every
year [Chaudhry (1989)].
Impediments to Social Development in Pakistan
Authors: Ismail Zafar H.
Published: August 2018

The development of infrastructure and the provision of basic
services in Pakistan lie in the public domain. The quality of the built
infrastructure and the service offered reflect successive governments’
capability as a channel for public sector funds, their role in overall
financial and macro-economic planning and management, and their
administrative efficiency in implementation, operations and
management—in essence the extent to which they are able to adhere to the
principles of good and humane governance. Good governance is generally
conceived of as the judicious exercise of economic, political and
administrative authority in the public and private spheres to manage a
country’s affairs at all levels to improve the quality of life of the
people. It is a continuing process where divergent opinions and desires
are satisfied through compromise and tolerance in a spirit of
cooperative action for the mutual benefit of the larger whole. It has
three dimensions: one, the political regime; two, the systems and
procedures for exercising authority; and three, the capacity of
governments [World Bank (1994); UNDP (1997); OECD (1995); Commission on
Global Governance (1995)].
Monetary Expansion and Stock Returns in Pakistan
Authors: Husain Fazal , Mehmood Traiq
Published: August 2018

The effect of changes in money supply on stock returns has
been a matter of controversy among economists for many decades. Those in
favour of presence of links between money market and stock market argue
that any change in money supply creates a wealth effect which disturbs
the existing equilibrium in the portfolio of investors. When they
re-adjust their asset portfolio, a new equilibrium is established in
which the price level of various assets is changed. On the other hand,
if the stock market is efficient, it would already have incorporated all
the current and anticipated changes in money supply. Consequently, a
causal relationship between changes in money supply and stock prices
will not be established. Moreover if the change in money supply
coincides with a corresponding change in the velocity of money, it will
not have any effect on stock prices. The pioneering work in this regard
was done by Sprinkel (1964). Using the data from 1918 to 1960, he found
a strong relationship between stock prices and money supply in the
United States. His conclusions, however, were mostly based upon
graphical analysis.