bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
MODELO COMPATIBLE ALTURA - ÍNDICE DE SITIO PARA CUATRO ESPECIES DE PINO EN SANTIAGO PAPASQUIARO, DURANGO
Authors: Castillo López Albert , Vargas-Larreta Benedicto , Corral Rivas José Javier , Nájera Luna Juan Abel , Cruz Cobos Francisco , Hernández Francisco Javier
Published: July 2018

La productividad forestal es un concepto biológico que puede expresarse matemáticamente. En el presente estudio se describen modelos compatibles altura dominante - índice de sitio para Pinus arizonica, P. durangensis, P. leiophylla y P. teocote en la región de Santiago Papasquiaro, Durango, una de las zonas forestales más importantes de México. Los datos utilizados fueron obtenidos de análisis troncales de 202 árboles dominantes. Se ajustaron los modelos de Korf, Hossfeld y Bertalanffy-Richards, para lo cual se utilizó el método de Diferencias Algebraicas Generalizadas (GADA). La principal ventaja de este método es que depende de la calidad de estación y no de un parámetro de los modelos, con lo que las curvas obtenidas son polimórficas y con múltiples asíntotas. Durante el ajuste se modeló la estructura del error a través de un modelo autorregresivo de segundo orden para corregir la dependencia de datos longitudinales. Con base en los estadísticos de ajuste y el análisis gráfico, se recomienda el modelo de Bertalanffy-Richards para calificar la calidad de estación de las cuatro taxa. La ecuación de este modelo es polimórfica con múltiples asíntotas e invariante con respecto a la edad de referencia, además estima directamente la altura dominante y el índice de sitio a cualquier altura y edad. El uso de estas ecuaciones permitirá mejorar significativamente la estimación actual del potencial productivo de las especies estudiadas.
Registro de escarabajos descortezadores (Curculionidae: Scolytinae) en el Bosque La Primavera, Jalisco
Authors: Rodríguez Rivas Antonio , Díaz-Ramos Sara Gabriela , Contreras-Quiñones Héctor Jesús , Barrientos-Ramírez Lucia , Escoto García Teófilo , Equihua-Martínez Armando
Published: July 2018

Se obtuvieron los primeros registros de Scolytinae para el Bosque La Primavera, Jalisco (área natural protegida), con 11 especies y seis géneros, así como su distribución altitudinal. Los insectos fueron capturados mediante trampas, dos de ellas tipo Lindgren de 10 embudos (cebadas con feromonas de Dendroctonus ponderosa e Ips typographus), las cuales se instalaron en vegetación de pino-encino; las otras tres fueron tipo embudo metálica (cebadas con alcohol etílico al 70 %, anticongelante y en el interior de la trampa se colocó thinner), se ubicaron en vegetación de pino, de encino y una más en una asociación de acacias. Las cinco trampas se distribuyeron a diferente gradiente altitudinal: de 1 380 a 1 580 msnm. El grupo más abundante, con respecto a especies fueron Xyleborus affinis, X. ferruginueus, X. volvulus y Gnathotrichus perniciosus. De esta colecta se presentan tres nuevos registros para el estado de Jalisco: Hylurgops subcostulatus alternans, Premnobius cavipennis y Xyleborus horridus; y locales: Ips calligraphus e I. cribicollis. La trampa cinco presentó la mayor captura, con ocho especies (cebada con alcohol etílico al 70 %), seguida por la trampa uno con siete (cebada con feromonas); los dos tipos de trampas demostraron ser eficientes para la captura de insectos descortezadores.
Frutos y semillas de Bursera simplex Rzed. & Calderón en diferentes sitios y estructura arbórea
Authors: Luna-Cedeño Jesús Jonathan , Rodríguez-Ortiz Gerardo , Enríquez-del Valle José Raymundo , Ruíz-Luna Judith , García-Aguilar Juan Ángel , Campos-Angeles Gisela Virginia
Published: July 2018

El territorio del estado de Oaxaca reúne la mayor biodiversidad de México; la vegetación más abundante es la selva baja caducifolia con especies de Bursera de importancia económica y biológica. En el presente estudio se evaluó la composición estructural y el fenotipo de árboles semilleros de Bursera simplex y las características del sitio en que crecen; su producción de frutos y de semillas se describió en función del individuo del cual se recolectaron. Durante 2015, se realizó un muestreo dirigido de 23 unidades muestrales hacia los mejores fenotipos con alta producción de frutos y semillas, ademas se hizo su inventario. Los datos se analizaron mediante índices estructurales y análisis de varianza para comparar la producción de frutos y semillas, en relación al árbol del que se obtuvieron, así como las características del sitio, altitud, pendiente y posición del lugar en el que crecieron los ejemplares. Los de tamaño mayor se asocian a pendientes ≤ 25 % y altitudes ≤ 1 278 m, donde producen 29 259 semillas kg-1. La estructura poblacional es de tipo irregular, con importantes densidades de Bursera simplex asociadas a la exposición oeste; el índice de valor forestal, el índice de valor de importancia y el índice de complejidad afectan las características morfológicas de frutos y semillas.
HUBUNGAN RED BLOOD CELL DISTRIBUTION (RDW) DENGAN NATIONAL INSTITUTES OF HEALTH STROKE SCALE (NIHSS) PADA PASIEN STROKE ISKEMIK AKUT YANG DIRAWAT DI UNIT STROKE RSUP DR. SARDJITO
Authors: Mayashita Ade , Asmedi Ahmad , Rachmat Tommy , Farida Siti
Published: July 2018

Latar Belakang: Stroke iskemik menyebabkan terjadinya inflamasi sel. Sitokin inflamasi menyebabkan peningkatan Red-Blood-Cell Distribution Width (RDW) dan mencegah maturasi sel darah merah. Pemeriksaan RDW rutin dan murah dikerjakan, sehingga diharapkan dapat digunakan sebagai prediksi keparahan klinis pada pasien stroke.

Tujuan: Untuk mengetahui hubungan RDW terhadap skor National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) pasien stroke iskemik akut di Unit Stroke Rumah Sakit Umum Pusat (RSUP) Dr. Sardjito Yogyakarta.

Metode Penelitian: Studi dengan rancangan potong lintang. Subjek penelitian adalah pasien stroke iskemik yang dirawat di Unit Stroke RSUP Dr. Sardjito periode Januari 2014 hingga Desember 2015. Diagnosis stroke iskemik akut ditegakkan berdasarkan anamnesis, pemeriksaan fisik, dan pemeriksaan Computed Tomography (CT)-scan kepala. Data NIHSS dan RDW diambil saat admisi dan diuji korelasi dengan tes Pearson. Nilai p<0,05 dianggap signifikan secara statistik.

Hasil: Sebanyak 51 orang subjek dimasukkan dalam penelitian. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa RDW serum berkorelasi terhadap NIHSS (r= 0,296; p=0,035).Simpulan: Terdapat korelasi positif antara kadar RDW dengan nilai NIHSS pada penderita stroke iskemik akut dengan kekuatan korelasi rendah, sehingga semakin tinggi kadar RDW, maka semakin tinggi nilai NIHSS.
The Operation of the Export Bonus Scheme in Pakistan's Jute and
Cotton Industries
Authors: Ahmad Qazi Kholiquzzaman
Published: July 2018

The author's intention is essentially to extend the Bruton and
Bose study of the Pakistan Export Bonus Scheme [1], in terms of both
time and commodity. However, in this paper we examine the operation of
the scheme in jute and cotton industries only. In our next paper, which
is now in process, we take up the other industries covered in [1] and
also a few more. Very briefly, the scheme works in the following way1.
The exporter of a "bonus commodity" surrenders his foreign exchange
earnings to the State Bank of Pakistan and receives, in addition to the
rupee equivalent, a voucher that entitles its owner to purchase foreign
exchange equal in value to 20 or 30 per cent (depen¬ding on the
commodity exported) of the amount earned. The voucher can be utilised
for obtaining foreign exchange for use in a) importing a wide range of
goods, b) business travels and c) opening and maintaining commercial
offices abroad. Vouchers are issued for all goods except raw jute, raw
cotton, hides and skins, raw wool and rice. The voucher is freely
transferable, and its price (which is commonly known as the premium) is
determined by the market. Imports permissible under bonus vouchers
include a large number of items—both capital and consumer goods.
Tariff Protection, Import Substitution, and Investment
Efficiency: A Comment
Authors: Papanek Gustav
Published: July 2018

The Soligo and Stern article [6] renders a major service, in
attempting a quantitative measure of the efficiency of the allocation of
investment to different industries. By substracting the net subsidy
provided to domestic industry (through tariff protection) from the value
added in each industry, Soligo and Stern estimate the social
contribution to the economy (or "social value added") of investment in a
particular industry. They reach the conclusion that "the pattern of
investment has been wastefully biased towards consumer goods
industries." If correct, this conclusion should have important
consequences for tariff policy and investment planning. However, a
number of questions can be raised about the methodology of their study.
A different set of assumptions and methods might have led to different
conclusions. The major adjustments which could be made are: 1. Soligo
and Stern calculate value added at factor cost. This may introduce a
bias in theif analysis since indirect taxes are very largely imposed on
con¬sumer goods. It can and has been argued that indirect taxes largely
determine only the distribution of value added between government on the
one hand and wages/profits on the other since they are not passed on to
the consumer to any significant degree [3;5]. If the bulk of indirect
taxes impinge on factor payments (primarily profits), calculating value
added at factor cost results in understating value added in the
production of goods which bear the heavier indirect taxes. Table |I
shows figures for value added at factor cost and indirect taxes for a
few representative industries derived from a sample survey [4]. It is
clear that if Soligo/Stern had calculated value added at market prices
rather than at factor cost, the value added in consumer goods industries
would have been increased much more than value added in the other two
categories.
Tariff Protection, Import Substitution, and Investment
Efficiency: Reply
Authors: Soligo Ronald , Stern Joseph J.
Published: July 2018

The essence of Papanek's comments are that the methodology of
our study has biased our results and hence that our conclusions must be
qualified. As pointed out by Papanek the issues raised in our paper are
of crucial importance to policy and planning decisions in Pakistan and
for this reason much more work needs to be done before one can determine
what a rational policy for industrial development would be. However, we
do not believe that the issues raised by Papanek would significantly
affect our results. We do not mean to imply that our results are not
open to substantial qualifications but we do feel that the
methodological questions raised by Papanek are not the relevant ones. In
what follows we discuss each of the three "adjustments" which Papanek
proposes and state why they do not, or may not, alter our results in any
significant way. Finally, we suggest what we believe to be the more
important issues which may affect our conclusions about what the
direction of industrialization should be. Papanek's first "adjustment"
relates to the use of output at market prices rather than at factor
cost. This issue arises only because we do not have world prices and
must make some assumption about the relationship between domestic prices
and world prices. In this sense, Papanek's [first point is part of his
third "adjustment" regarding our price assumption.
Summaries of the Selected Articles
Authors: Staff PIDE
Published: July 2018

Download the PDF file
Marketed Surplus Function of Major Agricultural Commodities in
Pakistan
Authors: Raquibuzzaman Mohammad
Published: July 2018

The marketed surplus of agricultural commodities plays a
significant role in the economic development of a low-income country
where agriculture is the principal source of income. This surplus is the
main source of capital accumulation, since it provides the basic wage
goods to the urban sector. A rise in the marketed surplus makes the
terms of trade favourable to the urban sector which enables it to
enhance the size of its profits. This, in turn, helps the rapid growth
of the economy. The marketed surplus not only provides the
nonagricultural sector with food, but also enables it to get raw
materials, liquid capital and foreign exchange. It reduces the need for
importing food stuffs and thus relieves pressures on the balance of
payments. The role of marketed surplus in economic development is so
well known that further elaboration is superfluous. Given the present
high rate of population growth of now estimated at 2.7 per cent [16] and
the rate of increase in per capita income it is unlikely that the
marketed surplus of agricultural commodities has kept pace with the
growing demand. Attempts are being made to raise the productivity of
agriculture. Productivity, though of prime importance, is not the only
factor that determines the size of the surplus. The marketed surplus is
determined by the interplay of different independent economic variables.
Unless the pattern of behaviour of these variables is known any policy
aimed at raising the size of the surplus may be ineffective. Therefore,
the need for a study of the marketed surplus function becomes important.
The Allocative Biases of Pakistan's; Commercial Policy: 1953 to
1963
Authors: Naqvi Syed Nawab Haider
Published: July 2018

The purpose of this paper is to examine the allocative biases
of Pakistan's commercial policy, with a view to determining its
influence on the composition of domestic investment in the private
sector. Although because of the complexity of factors influencing
investment deci¬sions it is well-nigh impossible to isolate the role of
commercial policy in shaping the composition of domestic investment, yet
a study of its allocative biases perse can shed considerable light on
the nature of this role. This is so because the import component of
various investment projects is high in Pakistan and private-sector
imports are, in turn, regulated by commercial policy. The discussion in
this paper is divided into four sections. The first section is devoted
to certain preliminary matters regarding commercial policy in Pakistan.
The second and third sections focus on the allocative biases of
import-licensing and export-promotion policies; while the fourth section
concludes the previous discussion. It may be noted at the very outset
that commercial policy regulates only private-sector imports which are
about 75 per cent of the total imports. Imports on government account
are regulated by separate arrangements.
The Balance of Payments and External Resources in Pakistan's
Third Five Year Plan: A Replay (Notes and Comments)
Authors: Glassburner Bruce
Published: July 2018

The Pakistan Institute of Development Economics has initiated
a number of useful studies on different aspects of the Third Five Year
Plan. Many of these studies have already yielded thought-provoking
articles, one of which is Dr. Bruce Glassburner's critique of the Third
Plan's sixth chapter on the balance of payments and external resources
[1]. 2. The main conclusion reached by Dr. Glassburner as a result of
his meticulous analysis of the balance of payments projections and
policies is that the Plan's export targets are overambitious and may be
difficult to achieve; that the import projections are conservative and
will not sustain the projected investment or consumption levels, and as
a consequence Pakistan may not be able to reduce reliance on foreign
assistance to the extent visualized in the Plan.
Personal Income Distribution and Personal Savings in Pakistan:
1963/64
Authors: Berga Asbjorn
Published: July 2018

One of the objectives of Pakistan's Third Five Year Plan is
"to make sub¬stantial progress towards achieving certain specific social
objectives such as diminishing inequalities in the distribution of
income " [4, p.39]. The main purpose of the present study is to measure
these inequalities. As the basic source we have used provides data on
private consumption as well as on personal income, some rough
calculations on personal savings (as residuals) have been included in
this paper. Income distribution and savings in Pakistan have been
studied by others in the past. A few papers have appeared in this Review
and elsewhere [3; 6 and 10]. However, due to the limitations of data,
all of them have been confined to the coverage of particular
geographical areas, population groups or industrial sectors, whereas the
present paper, in principle, deals with all personal income and savings
in the country. The data for this study were mainly obtained from the
"Quarterly Surveys of Current Economic Conditions" conducted by the
Central Statistical Office (CSO) during the fiscal year 1963/64. Since
similar information was not available for other years, the scope of the
present study had to be limited to the one year, 1963/64. This severe
limitation must be fully kept in mind when conclusions are drawn on the
basis of our findings. While the results may be valid for 1963/64, their
generalization over time would depend on the degree of stability of the
various functional and structural relationships involved. E.g.,
aggregate personal savings rates are probably very
Comparative Costs, Factor Proportions and Industrial Efficiency
in Pakistan
Authors: Islam Nurul
Published: July 2018

The paper presents, in Section I, new and additional evidence
on the comparative costs of manufacturing industries in Pakistan.
Furthermore, the findings of the present study are compared with those
of earlier studies. Comparative costs in this context are defined as the
ratios of ex-factory prices of specific domestic products to CJ/prices
of closely competing imports. In Section II, it examines whether the
tariff rates are an adequate index of the comparative cost ratios i.e.,
in other words, whether the differences in the tariff rates reflect the
differential cost structure of Pakistani industries? We also examine, in
Section III, whether the available data provide any evidence on the
relationship between the magnitude of cost disabilities of the Pakistani
industries and their stage of infancy, i.e., whether and to what extent
cost ratios decline with the growing up of infant industries. This paper
also analyses in Sections IV and V how far comparative cost ratios can
be used as a measure of the relative inefficiency of industries in
Pakistan? How far, for example, the high cost ratios of domestic
industries merely indicate that the Pakistani rupee is overvalued? How
far the cost ratios are affected by or represent high profits of
industries? An attempt is made to adjust for both the overvaluation of
foreign exchange and the prevalence of abnormally high profits. Finally,
in Section VI, we relate the comparative cost ratios of the
manufacturing industries to their factor intensities or their factor
proportions in an attempt to explore whether relative efficiency is
correlated with the relative intensity of use of the different factors
such as capital, labour, and skill.
Savings and Financial Flows in the Corporate Sector,
1959-63
Authors: Haq Khadija , Baqai M.
Published: July 2018

In common with most developing countries, the statistical
information about savings in Pakistan is weak and incomplete. Some
studies were made in the recent past [1(a), pp.1-50; 1(b), pp.163-208]
but these relate to specific sectors of the economy, or they are based
on one statistical source and may, therefore, be inconsistent with data
from other sources. The only comprehensive estimate is produced annually
by the Planning Commission as a corollary of its work on national
accounts and investment expenditures. Recent evaluation reports [2(a),
pp.5-9; 2(b), pp.21-25] have contained estimates of national gross
savings calculated as the difference between the investment expenditures
on one side, and external financing on the other. As the investment
estimates are derived from data on key inputs [2(a), pp.173-181; 2(b),
pp.137-144]—machinery, transport equipment, steel and cement—com¬bined
with a more detailed estimate for one year used as the benchmark, there
probably is a significant standard error of estimate here. With regard
to external finance, the balance of payments data used are probably more
accurate than the investment figures, but are also inadequate, notably
with regard to foreign private investment and technical
assistance.
Consumer Goods or Capital Goods—Supply Consistency in Development
Planning
Authors: Winston Gordon C.
Published: July 2018

This paper combines simplified Harrod-Domar and
Mahalanobis-type models, first to show that the internal consistency of
a development plan may well depend on supply relationships that are
usually ignored in aggregate planning, and second, to suggest the value
of a more general version of the "two-gap" model [11]. An empirical
application of this analysis, to be published separately, will look at
these supply relationships and their influence on Pakistan's
development. The argument of the paper is simple and not unfamiliar. To
the extent that installed capital is specific in what it produces and
the products themselves are specific and non-substitutable between
investment and consumption uses, the pattern of investment in one period
may determine the allocation of subse¬quent income to saving or
consumption and, therefore, the rate of growth of national income. As
this constraint of insufficient physical capital is softened by trade, a
foreign exchange constraint may enter. Part I sets the context by
broadly contrasting the Harrod-Domar and Mahalanobis views of growth.
Part II develops a formal but quite simple model of an economy whose
growth is limited by either saving or physical output constraints. Part
III introduces trade as an alternative source of capital, relaxing the
physical capital constraint. Part IV deals with geographical specificity
of capital sources in a 'four-gap model'.
In Memoriam Ghulam Mohammad : (1913 -1967)
Authors: Staff PIDE
Published: July 2018

Ghulam Mohammad, Senior Economist of the Pakistan Institute of
Development Economics, died in a hospital in Rome in September 1967. His
death has left the Institute with a void which will never be quite
filled. An able arid experienced civil servant, a masterful student of
bureaucracy, a wide ranging, technical¬ly proficient agricultural
scientist, a tireless and energetic researcher, a bright chee¬ry,
irrepressible and eternally youthful colleague—Ghulam Mohammad was all
these things and more. From the humble background of a Punjabi tenant
farming family, he rose, by virtue of his intelligence, natural talent,
energy and hard work, to a position of recognized professional
excellence, eminence, and stature, respected and admired in Pakistan and
abroad, even by those who disagreed with his views. His career is an
inspiration to any aspiring young professional, particularly in a
society which only recently has begun to replace ascriptive quali¬ties
by merit and achievement as bases for position, status, and
prestige.
A Multisectoral Analysis of Capital Requirements for Development
Planning in Pakistan
Authors: Khan Azizur Rahman , Macewan Arthur
Published: July 2018

Dynamic models of interdependence are being widely used to
analyse planning problems in underdeveloped countries. Basic to such
models are complex sets of technico-economic data of which input-output
coefficients and capital coefficients are crucial elements. As the
results obtained from these models are, of course, dependent upon such
data, we think it useful to give some attention to methods of estimating
technical coefficients and to the nature of the technical coefficients
themselves. In the present paper we explain how sets of capital
coefficients have been obtained on a multisectoral basis for the two
regions of the Pakistan economy, and we analyse the economic structure
which these coefficients reveal. Elsewhere[15] we have presented
regional input-output matrices for Pakistan. Both this paper and the
input-output paper are parts of work directed toward providing a
comprehensive and consistent set of data for multisectoral regional
planning in Pakistan. In this work we use a 35-sector classification of
the economy —see Table I—and work in purchasers' prices for the year
1962/63...
The Economic History of the Middle East: 1800-1914. A Book of
Read¬ings edited by Charles Issawi. Chicago : University of Chicago
Press. pp.513.
Authors: Rahimi S. A.
Published: July 2018

This book has a wide selection of writings on various topics
of the Middle East economy, of which some refer mainly to events lying a
little outside the given period. The Middle East here consists of the
Ottoman Empire, Iraq, Syria, Arabia, Egypt and the Sudan. Syria includes
the Lebanon, Palestine and Trans-Jordan, whilst Arabia means the whole
Arabian Peninsula. These writings are culled from a remarkable array of
sources, ranging from diaries to diplomatic reports. The editor has
deliberately avoided the better-known works in English and has
endeavoured to present the reader with a selection of which he might
never see the originals and has done so in a comprehensive and unified
manner.
Economics of Water Use on Different Classes of Saline and Alkali
Land in the Semi-arid Plains of West Pakistan
Authors: Rafiq Ch. Mohammad , Mian M. Alim , Brinkman R.
Published: July 2018

Soil salinity and alkali pose a major problem for agriculture
in West Pakistan. According to one estimate [5, p. 39], out of the gross
area of 46.5 million acres of the Indus Plains, 4.8 million acres were
strongly saline and 11.1 million acres were partially affected by
salinity. Although soil alkali was also recognized as a problem [1], it
was generally considered to be of limited extent. Its full significance
was realized only after studies in 1962 and 1963 by the Water and Soil
Investigation Division of WAPDA and the US Salinity Laboratory in the
Salinity Control and Reclamation Project No. 1 (WAPDA 1966). The soil
surveys carried out by the Soil Survey Project of Pakistan have
subsequently provided further information on saline and alkali
soils.
The Domestic Prices of Imported Commodities in Pakistan A Further
Study
Authors: Alamgir Mohiuddin
Published: July 2018

A system of effective quantitative restrictions on the supply
of imported commodities will raise domestic prices of imports to levels
well above their landed cost, i.e., price plus taxes, tariffs, and a
normal markup. In 1965, Pal estimated the magnitude of such scarcity
premia for a number of important commodities for East and West Pakistan
[1; 2]1. His study has proved very useful both in measuring the
influence of quantitative restrictions on the price of imports and,
equally important, in showing the structure or incidence of
restriction-induced profits—their distribution among consumption,
intermediate and capital goods and their incidence relative to import
policy. Pal's study was unavoidably static in nature and does not allow
us to trace the changes over time. The purpose of the present paper is
three-fold: first, to provide a comparison with Pal's study using data
collected after two years and after a number of changes in Pakistan's
import policies. This part of the analysis Is based strictly on Pal's
commodity list. Second, in order to examine the impact of changing
import composition, we shall recompute the scarcity premia on the basis
of a new list of commodities and a changed set of weights (value of
imports). Finally, we shall analyse the significance of the results for
import control policy.
Planning Experience in Pakistan
Authors: Huda M. N.
Published: July 2018

Planning is called 'economic' because both economics and
planning seek to make human life fuller and richer by the same modus
operandi, namely, harnessing and utilising limited resources for
attaining a limited combination of unlimited objectives. To be
effective, planning must cover all aspects of man's life; and all his
hopes and aspirations should be kept in view in deciding what can be
done with available resources in a given period. There are thus three
clear-cut stages in planning: a) determination of objectives, b)
assessment of resources, and c) drawing up of actual programmes for
implementation. Since the objectives should really reflect people's
hopes and aspirations, and cover all interests of man—economic, social
and cultural, the determination of such objectives, and more so the
combination of such objectives for a given period, have to be done by
the people themselves through their political system. The planner may
help in the identification of these objectives or combinations
therefore; but in the last analysis, the objectives must be given to
him, ...............
A Few Comments on Professor Hilda's Conference Address: "Planning
Experience in Pakistan"
Authors: Bose Swadesh R.
Published: July 2018

Professor Huda's conference address on the "Planning
Experience in Pakistan" covers, within a space of some twenty pages, a
wide range of issues important for the country's economic planning and
policies. Many problems are not, however, considered at length, and some
questions are just raised for detailed study by experts. But with its
analysis, suggestions and questions, this address is highly stimulating
to economists and policy-makers in their endeavour to identify and
resolve the problems confronting development planning in Pakistan. He
dwells, among other things, on the problems of relationship between the
planning technician and the policy-maker, appropriate planning
techniques, interregional balance in development, the pace and the
pattern of industrialisation, incentives to private enterprise and role
of the public sector, income dis¬tribution and saving generation, and
costs and benefits of external aid. He finally reflects on the major
tasks that should be undertaken in the Fourth-Plan period. The main
focus of the following comments will be on the relationship between the
technician and the politician in development planning, private
incentives and social goals, and income distribution and mobilisation of
domes¬tic savings.
Age at Marriage in Pakistan
Authors: Alam Syed Iqbal
Published: July 2018

The fertility of a population is the consequence of a number
of different but interrelated, demographic, social and economic causes.
In a country, such as Pakistan, where total fertility is high [16] and
the population young [8], age at marriage of women is one of the major
determinants of future fertility. In a non-industrial society marriage
is often the most important factor which regulates the production of
off-spring [9]. The pattern of marriage varies greatly from one country
to another under the influence of social factors, and the gross
expectation of marital life below the age of 50 years (a rough estimate
of the end of the fecund period) for a girl at the beginning of fecund
period varies from about two decades in European countries to about
three decades in Tropical Africa [9]1. Because the upper age limit of
the fecund period is biologically determined, age at marriage is the
major factor which regulates the potential reproductive span of women.
Coale and Tye, using the stable population technique, have demonstrated
that in general fertility declines with an increased age at marriage,
which in fact means the shortening of the average marital life span [2].
In the Mysore population study it was estimated that if no woman married
before reaching 18 years of age, then the overall fertility would
decline by about 15 per cent [13]. Agarwala, in 1965, estimated that in
India an increase in average age at marriage from existing 15.6 years to
19-20 years, would result in an annual crude birth rate 30 years latter
of 33.9 births per 1000 population instead of 47.8, a decline of 29 per
cent [1]. Sadiq [11] has observed that in
Deficit Financing, Controls, and Movement of Prices in India
since 1947 by A. Vasudevan. Bombay: Allied Publishers Private, Ltd.,
1967. pp.239.
Authors: Child Frank C.
Published: July 2018

Experience with the processes of inflation and growth is
varied around the world and through time. In Western Europe and the
United States, there has been rapid growth (or slow growth) when prices
were rising and when they were not. The Japanese success story shows
that more or less chronic inflation is consistent with a high growth
rate; but it also shows that the growth rate is less rapid at the
highest (observed) rates of inflation. Socialist countries, like Poland
and Russia, have experienced (planned?) inflation in accompaniment to
growth. Recent Brazilian and Mexican experience suggests that a rapid
inflation is consistent with (contributed to ?) a high growth rate.
Indonesia and Ghana provide examples of inflation leading to stagnation
or disintegration rather than progress. Other contradictory examples add
to our mixed bag of empirical evidence.
Trade and Trade Policy for Development by Staffan Burenstam
Linder. New York; Washington; London: Frederic A. Praeger, 1967. pp.xi
+ 179.
Authors: Minsky Hymen P.
Published: July 2018

Linder's theme is that conventional trade theory, as set out
in the theories of comparative advantage and the compatibility of
internal and external equilibrium, as well as the traditional free trade
rules for trade policy are not valid for developing countries. He
creates a trade model for developing countries in which internal
equilibrium, in the sense of capacity income, and external
(balance-of-payments) equilibrium are not compatible. Under these
circumstances the need to satisfy the external equilibrium requirement
dominates; this leads to a reduction of domestic output below capacity
output. The existence of excess capacity in the midst of economic
backwardness effectively retards continued investment and economic
growth. Thus, the role of trade policy is to facilitate the achievement
of capacity output
The Demography of Tropical Africa by William Brass, Ansley J.
Coale, Paul Demeny, Don F. Heisel, Frank Lorimer, Anatole Romaniuk, and
Etienne van de Walk. Princeton, New Jersey: Princeton University Press,
1968. pp.xxiv + 540.
Authors: Krotki Karol J.
Published: July 2018

This book is a fascinating "who done it" and a thriller of the
first order. That is if one has the stamina and the equipment to work
one's way through it. Your reviewer considers himself a trained
demographer and comes out of possibly the most rigorous demographic
school. He was an Africanist for" many years. He worked with one of the
main techniques employed in this book for ten years and was familiar
with another group of methods used by the authors for fifteen years. Yet
he found it tough going. The book is long and difficult. One wonders who
will be the readers.
A Programming Model for Reduction of Import Dependence of
Pakistan
Authors: Naseem S. M.
Published: July 2018

The present study consists, in the main, of formulating,
implementing and interpreting the results of a model which attempts to
explore with the help of available data the possibilities of import
substitution in Pakistan from 1963/64 to 1972/73. The model is designed
to assess the realistic limits to the process of import substitution in
the context of growth—taking" Into consideration such realistic factors
as the growth of per capita consumption, export possibilities
mobilization of domestic savings and the availability of foreign
economic assist¬ance. Although in a formal sense the model is
deterministic, the variation of certain exogenous elements and
parameters generates enough information on the behaviour of the model to
indicate the extent of substitutability and trade-offs between strategic
economic aggregates which is so crucial in evaluating the different
policy objectives a planner may wish to pursue.
Choice Of Technique And The Volume Of Saving (A Re-Examination Of
The Cobb-Douglas Model)
Authors: Anisur Rahman Mohammad
Published: July 2018

The purpose of this paper is to re-examine the relationship
between the degree of aggregate labour-intensity and the aggregate
volume of saving in an economy where a Cobb-6ouglas production function
in its traditional form can be assumed to give a good approximation to
reality. The relationship in ques¬tion has an obviously important
bearing on economic development policy in the area of choice of labour
intensity. To the extent that and in the range where an increase in
labour intensity would adversely affect the volume of savings, a
con¬flict arises between two important social objectives, i.e., higher
rate of capital formation on the one hand and greater employment and
distributive equity on the other. If relative resource endowments in the
economy are such that such a "competitive" range of labour-intensity
falls within the nation's attainable range of choice, development
planners will have to arrive at a compromise between these two social
goals.
Economics and Economic Policy in Britain, 1946-1966 by T. W.
Hutchison. London: George Allen and Unwin, 1968.
Authors: Robinson E. A. G.
Published: July 2018

Professor Hutchison is a very distinguished historian of
economic thought who has hitherto written little or nothing in the field
of economic policy-making. In this book he is concerned not so much with
economic policy as with econo¬mists as advisers on economic policy. His
method is the method of the historian of economic thought. He looks at
different economists recommending and criticising policies, looks at the
outcomes of policies and sizes up the value of the advice. As one of
those whom among many others he has chosen to dissect in this way, I
have no ground for complaint. My fellow specimens differ in different
periods. Those who most frequently appear on his paper include Harrod,
Balogh, Robertson, Hicks, Joan Robinson, Kahn, Johnson, Warswick, Dow,
Kaldor, Day, Paish. He looks at what was written during various periods
and in relation to the issues of those periods: the early post-War phase
of adjust¬ment to the post-War world and the devaluation of 1949; the
post-Korean ex¬pansion and the new monetary policy of 1951-55; the
development of growth consciousness and of persistent inflation during
1955-60; the continuing pro¬blems of growth and those of entry into the
common market during 1960-66, where his story ends. It is fascinative,
particularly for the victims, to look again in hind-sight and see where
one was reasonably right and where one was obviously wrong.
Some Reflections on Income Redistributive Intermediation in
Pakistan
Authors: Chowdhury A. H. M. Nuruddin
Published: July 2018

Mobilization of domestic saving for economic development may
be attempted by alternative methods, namely, through taxation and public
revenue surplus, through higher incentives to savers and financial
intermediation, and through income redistribution in favour of sectors
which are provided high incentives to save and invest. In view of the
lack of an active financial sector, fiscal weaknesses and other market
imperfections, Pakistan primarily depended on the last strategy to
mobilize domestic saving. This paper elucidates the mechanics of this
strategy and some of its effects on sectoral resource transfer,
aggregate savings, financial intermediation and resource
allocation.
The Effect of the Growing Constraint of Subsistence Farming on
Farmer Res¬ponse to Price: A Case Study of Jute in Pakistan
Authors: Hussain Sayed Mushtaq
Published: July 2018

During the last decade or so, substantial empirical work has
been done on farmer response to price in the underdeveloped countries1.
Most of the research effort, however, is lacking theoretical rigour and
is heavily oriented towards the estimation of area (output) supply
functions and the verification of the existence of economic incentives.
The purpose of this study is to extend the research horizon by
emphasizing and elaborating the role of certain constraints in
determining the degree of farmer response to price which is one of the
aspects of economic performance. We believe that the level of farmers'
economic performance varies directly with their ability to exploit the
opportunities within the horizon. It was main¬tained elsewhere that the
basic reason for farmers' low level of economic performance lies in the
fact that their ability to exploit given and well-understood
opportunities is reduced by various constraints — physical (climate,
water avail¬ability, etc.), technological (lack of more productive
technical knowledge and knowhow, etc.) and institutional (the practice
of subsistence farming) [12].
Foreign-Aid Requirements: A Critique of Aid Projections with
Special Reference to Pakistan
Authors: Baqai Moin , Brecher Irving
Published: July 2018

It has become fashionable, during the past decade, to study
the problem of foreign aid in terms of projection of aid requirements.
Foreign aid is typi¬cally justified in the donor countries as a
commitment to achieve a specific development objective having a finite
cost. For the developing countries, on the other hand, the
"requirements" approach helps to focus attention on the inadequacy of
the existing levels of foreign aid and gives concrete shape to their
demands for more assistance1. While projections have served a useful
purpose by indicating the broad orders of magnitude of aid requirements
and suggesting some criteria for aid allocation, they are, by their very
nature, based on a number of simplifying assumptions about the behaviour
of certain key relationships in the economy. Savings, import
substitution and the choice of technology cannot really be treated as
independent of the volume and form of foreign assistance. The
limitations of aid projections, which generally do so, are obvious to
those who make them and those who use them. Justification for the
continuing interest in such estimates lies in the "ceteris paribus"
assumption so commonly made in economic analysis. By the same token, one
must exercise substantial caution in drawing policy conclusions from
those estimates2
A Proposal for Fiscal Incentives for the Raw-Jute Exports (Notes
& Comments)
Authors: Rabbani A. K. M. Ghulam
Published: July 2018

While jute is an important crop, jute policy of Pakistan has
often been inadequate. Efforts to improve the productivity of jute and
to pursue a price policy consistent with the long-term interest of jute
in the external market have been peripheral and uncoordinated and all
along not been commensurate with the gravity of the issues involved. In
the twenty years since Pakistan came into existence, the world
production of jute and allied fibres increased by nearly 300 per cent
from a level of about 1.5 million metric tons during the period 1947-52
to 4.3 million tons during 1967/68, whereas Pakistan's production of
jute has stagnated at a level around 1.0 to 1.3 million tons per annum.
As a result, Pakistan's share in the world production has continuously
declined from about 80 per cent in 1947/48 to only 30 per cent in
1967/68. In the same period the volume of world export trade in raw jute
and jute goods increased by nearly 40 per cent whereas Pakistan's
exports increased only marginally by 8 per cent — its share in raw jute
had declined in absolute terms which could hardly be compensated by the
increase in exports of jute goods [6].
A Note on the Demand for Fertilizer in West Pakistan (Notes &
Comments)
Authors: Leonard P. L.
Published: July 2018

West Pakistan has experienced a remarkable revolution in
agriculture during its Third Five Year Plan. Very large increases in
agricultural output have resulted from the rapidly growing use of
improved seeds, fertilizer, and from improved water supplies.
Agricultural pricing-policy has also played a part in this achievement.
In this paper only one aspect of this revolution will be examined in
isolation—the rapidly growing demand for chemical fertilizers. It is to
be hoped that similar studies on other agricultural inputs will follow
and that as a result it will be possible to consider the interactions
and aggregate significance of various inputs. Increasing quantities of
fertilizers are being sold in West Pakistan, and considerable public
resources have been devoted to their purchase and distri¬bution. The
growth of fertilizer industry and of sales has largely been the result
of efforts in the public sector, whereas in the case of tubewells it was
the private sector which led the way. The private sector has recently
been brought into the distribution of fertilizers, and will be taking
over the responsibility for retail distribution. The sale of fertilizer
has been subsidised in West Pakistan and for this reason it is of
primary importance to identify and quantify the factors determining
demand.
Development Policy — Theory and Practice Edited by Gustav F.
Papanek. Harvard, 1968.
Authors: Anisur Rahman M.
Published: July 2018

The Development Advisory Service (DAS) of Harvard University
has its wings spread over a big empire by now and a volume like this
bringing together some of their experiences should be of considerable
interest. The volume contains ten contributions plus an evaluation by
the editor. Two questions receive special attention: import
substitution, and inflation-cum-exchange policy, to each of which three
papers are devoted. Four rather isolated contributions on econometric
models for development planning, sales taxation in Columbia,
agricultural development in Pakistan and labour scarcity in Liberia
complete the collection.
THE WASHBACK EFFECT OF SCHOOL-BASED ORAL EVALUATION PERFORMANCE AND ITS CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP WITH FEAR OF NEGATIVE EVALUATION
Authors: Sham Rosnah Mohd , Azmi Mohd Nazri Latiff
Published: July 2018

This paper presents part of a study that investigates the washback effect of a School-Based Oral Evaluation (SBOE) performance from the teachers’ perceptions.  It also investigates the causal relationship between students who have passed in the school-based oral evaluation (SBOE) with fear of negative evaluation. The participants are 302 of form four students and four English teachers from the Putrajaya Federal Territory government secondary schools in Malaysia. It is a mixed-method study in which data were collected in sequential, analysed separately, and then explained. The quantitative data were collected by using FLCAS, the School-Based Oral Evaluation (SBOE) results and the qualitative data were collected from the semi-structured interviews with the English teachers and guidelines on SBOE from the Ministry of Education Malaysia. The quantitative method used descriptive statistical analysis, whereas the qualitative method used content analysis.  Students’ result in the mid-term examination 2017 had shown that they scored high marks in the SBOE.  The quantitative results revealed that the students experienced low mean level of fear of negative evaluation.  The teachers reported that students had shown positive attitude during the SBOE and English class interaction.  They were focused, confident, responsive and not panic.  There is a positive washback effect of SBOE on the students’ result. High results in SBOE affected the mean level of fear of negative evaluation. The partial eta-squared showed the value of 0.106 which is considered high.  This study suggests two broad future tasks.  The first task involves the development of national curriculum in English language which dependence upon oral English language.  The second task focuses on the development of English language training and skills for the English teachers.Keywords: washback effect, School-Based Oral Evaluation performance, causal relationship, fear of negative evaluation