bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
POLICY IMPLICATION OF SINGLE CANDIDATES IN REGIONAL HEAD ELECTION ON VOTER PARTICIPATION IN TASIKMALAYA DISTRICT
Authors: Engkus Engkus , Suparman Nanang , Trisakti Fadjar , Lestari Firda
Published: August 2019

The main problem in this study is that voter participation in the election to the regions in Tasikmalaya Regency declined. This is possible because of the absence of candidates who have great potential to compete with the single candidate, the existence of a legal vacuum (Rechtvacum) with weak regulations regarding regional elections followed by single candidates which have implications for planned delays in the election, political. This study uses a quantitative approach with  Associative method. The calculation results obtained by calculating the dimensions of size and purpose, resources, character of the implementing agent, disposition, communication, and environment of the Single Candidate Determination Policy in the Election of Regional Heads on Voter Participation in Tasikmalaya District have a significant influence. Thus it is concluded that there are still not optimal indicators from the dimensions of policy implementation such as the character of the implementing agency that directly affects participation of the community, then in communication and the way the implementer gives an attitude in accepting the results of implementation that are not in accordance with what the community feels
STRATEGI KUALITAS PELAYANAN PADA DINAS KEPENDUDUKAN DAN CATATAN SIPIL KOTA BANDUNG
Authors: Septiadi Muhammad Andi
Published: August 2019

The Bandung City Population and Civil Registration Service provides population services so that all elements of the Bandung City population are registered in the data base and the accuracy of the data is the most influential thing, because it relates to the voter list in elections. The quality of service in the city of Bandung has begun to enter the e-government stage where some of its activities have used technology such as using applications to obtain queue numbers, but the implementation has not run well because the server is still experiencing disruptions during rush hour and lack of public awareness about application usage procedures In addition, the facility is also a factor in reducing people's motivation to report. This research attempts to analyze the strategy of the Bandung City Population and Civil Registry Service in providing services to the community, using qualitative methods with a descriptive approach and supported by SWOT analysis. The results show that the service quality strategy in the Bandung City Population and Civil Registry Service is still not optimal due to lack of socialization and supporting facilities that provide comfort to the people who will take care of the population documents.
The Case for the Par-Value System, 1971
Authors: Katz Samuel I.
Published: August 2019

The commitment of each member to maintain a par value and to consult the Fund before changing it constituties the heard of the international monetary system established at Bretton Woods. Economists in general have tended to be critical of these arrangements. The professional literature has stressed the role of exchange rates in clearing foreign-exchange markets and economists, in general, have preferred arrangements under which exchange values would fluctuate enough to clear exchange-markets in an orderly fashion. The one-sided support economists have given to flexible exchange-rate arrangements has largely rested upon an overwhelming professional preference for making shifts in economic resources through market processes. Perhaps elements of nationalist unilateralism may sometimes have contributed to this preference. In any case, many critics were convinced that the par-value system would inevitably lead, in a world of discordant national policies, merely to networkds of governmental controls and to financial crises. There have been frequent enough financial disturbances in recent years to confirm that such misgivings were altogether unjustified.
Postwar Trends in Income and Deposit Velocity in the LDCs
Authors: Emery Robert F.
Published: August 2019

This study has several objectives. One is to indicate that other researchers have concluded with regard to the secular trend of various types of income and deposit velocity. A second objective is to assemble and analyze the postwar trends of various types of velocities, as well as the currency ratio, for up to 41 countries.
Devaluation and the Balance of Trade Under Flexible Wages
Authors: Salop Joanne
Published: August 2019

The current revival of interest in devaluation among policy makers makde this an appropriate time for reconsidering our conclusions about the effects of exchange rate changes. To this end this paper presents a general macroeconomic model of the open economy and anayzes the effects of devaluation on the trade balance, output, and employment. Crucial to the analysis is the endogeneity of domestic prices, for devaluation which leads to a rise in domestic prices is really a new devaluation of smaller magnitude. In fact, if domestic prices rise by the same percentage as the devaluation, the the relative prices of imports and exports are unchanged, leaving the trade balance unimproved.
A Model of Arbitrage and Short-Term Capital Flows
Authors: Dooley Michael P.
Published: August 2019

Existing empirical work dealing with short-term capital movements in an adjustable peg exchange rate regime suffers from insufficient attention to exchange risk as determinant of the timing and direction of short-term capital flows. Theoretical work on monetary policy in an open economy has highlighted the importance of the degree of capital mobility in determining the extent to which international flows of funds respond to divergent national monetary and fiscal policies. We conjecture that the dominant determinant of capital mobility, even in a narrow band exchange rate regime, is the risk of exchange rate changes. Following this conjecture we develop a model in which foreign bonds covered against exchange risk are perfect substitutes for domestic bonds, while uncoverer foreign bonds are not good substitutes for demestic bonds.
Simulations with Model of the U.S. Balance of Payments: The Impact of the Smithsonian Exchange Rate Agreement
Authors: Kwack Sung Y.
Published: August 2019

Since the realignment of exchange rates by the Smithsonian Agreement of Decembter 2971, substantial research has been conducted to analyze the effect of that exchange rate change on the U.S. balance of payments. Most of this inquiry, however, focused exclusively on the balance of commodity trade. The effect on the service and capital accounts and the inderect effect through changes in foreign holdings of income-yielding U.S. liquid liabilities were not examined. The exchange rate effect on all the components of the U.S. balance of payments--with specific account taken of the impact on trade, services, and capital flows--deserves systematic analysis. This paper attempts such as analysis utilizing a model of the U.S. balance of payments.
Risk in Foreign and Domestic Lending Activiities of U.S. Banks
Authors: Ruckdeschel Fred B.
Published: August 2019

In 1972, when the banking community was concerned about potential losses on loans to foreign borrowers, loose lending practices by un-named banks were said to have caused a deterioration in credit standards. At the present time there is a similar concern but it is now coupled with a concern about the domestic loan losses.
Foreign Exchange Operations of U.S. Banks
Authors: Bradshaw Robert C.
Published: August 2019

In recent months the Federal Reserve Board and other bank regulatory agencies have been giving special consideration to supervisory or regulatory reforms that might be implemented to limit banks' exposure to foreign exchange losses. This paper reviews the nature of certain of the risks associated with bank's foreign exchange operaions and discusses, in general terms, some of what the Federal Reserve has learned in a recent survey of the procedures employed by the U.S. banks to monitor and limit their exposurein foreign exchange operations.
The Currect Status of Economic Integration in the European Community
Authors: Lubitz Raymond
Published: August 2019

The history of the European Community seems to be marked by alternations between period of progress and cooperation and crisis and disarray. In 1974 the Community experienced one of its most pervasive crises as failures in seceral areas -- monetary union, energy policy, and poltical cooperation -- al seemed to converge. Recently, a good part of this gloom has been dispelled although, it terms of substantive achievements, not a great deal has been recently accomplished. However, with the U.K. renegotiations and referendum behind it, and a new sense of realism and pragmatism as to what can be reasonably accomplished, new initiatives may now be possible.
Analysis of Short-Run Exchange Rate Behavior March, 1973 to September, 1975
Authors: Dooley Michael P. , Shafer Jeffrey R.
Published: August 2019

Exchange rates among major foreign currencies have experiences considerable short run variability since the inception of generalized floating exchange rates in March 1973. Exchange rate movements of individual foreign currencies against the U.S. dollar of one-half percent or more in a single day have been frequent; movements of two percent or more have occurred on a few occasions. The sentiment that his volatility is evidence of a failure of the floating rate system or a failur of stabilizing speculation is widely held. In this paper we look at the evidence of the first 30 months of floating rates in order to discover how exchange rates have fluctuated and why. Such knowledge is a precondition for examining what role official intervention might play in exchange markets.
Rules for Intervention Without Fixed Parties
Authors: Dooley Michael P. , Shafer Jeffrey R.
Published: August 2019

This paper describes a set of rules for exchange market intervention in a managed float system. The rules would apply to world that began with and maintained a balanced distribution of reservee assets and had limited accumulations of foreign currency reserves. The rules proposed are intended to give wide discretion to central banks and contrain this discretion only to the extent necessary to avoid conflicting intervention transactions, and intervention by one country effectively to peg the currency of another. The rules can be written as a natural extention of a multicurrency intervention system, a key currency internvention system, or a basket of currencies intervention system in a regime of fixed exchange raltes.
Market Anticipation, Government Policy, and the Price of Gold
Authors: Salant Stephen W. , Henderson Dale W.
Published: August 2019

Between March, 1968, when central banks stopped their pegging operations, and December 1974, when Secretary Simon announced the first U.S. government gold auction, the path of gold prices (shown in Figure 1) exhibited two striking features. First, the price rose at a rate much greater than the rate of interst for period of as many as eight monthos at a time. Second, each upward surge was interrupted by a sharp setback.
Theory and Implications of Currency Substitution
Authors: Girton Lance , Roper Don E.
Published: August 2019

One of the interesting features in the study of indernational monetary theory is that some problems arise in a multi-currency context that are not so obvious in "domestic" monetary theory. One such problem which has received little attention, concerns a phenomenon that might be called "currency sunstitution." By currency substitution, abbrevieated CS, we mean the degree that currencies are sunstitutes in the portfolio of ultimate wealth holders. The word "currency" refers specifically to money (to be defined more precisely below) as opposed to interest bearing recorded in capital accounts entries of balance of payments accounts.
The Past, Present, and Future of the International Monetary System: A Review Essay
Authors: Truman Edwin M.
Published: August 2019

Book Review
Personal Saving Behavior in Five Major Industralized Countries
Authors: Howard David H.
Published: August 2019

A major source of uncertainty in recent forecasts of economic activity in industrial countries has related to the expected course of personal saving rate (i.e., personal saving as a percent of personal disposable income). Changes in the personal saving rate can exert a significant influence on aggregate demand and it would appear that a greater degree of certainty as to the guture course of saving rates in the major industrialized countries would improve forecasting and aid in the formulation of macroeconomic policy.
Alternatives for Modeling the World Outside the United States
Authors: Stevens Guy V. G.
Published: August 2019

Econometric models of the United States are notoriously deficent in their ability to measure the impact of internationally generated factors o nthe domestic economy. The situation has only worsened since the advent of flexible exchange rates. The project of which this paper is a part proposes a strategy for remedying the situation.
The Goods Market and the Labor Market of the Multi-Country Model
Authors: Berner Richard
Published: August 2019

In "Modeling the International Influences on the U.S. Economy: A Multi-Country Framework," a project involving the construction of a multicountry linked model with endogeneous exchange rates is descrived. The structe of the goods and labor markets in a typical or prototype country sub-model, already sketched in that paper, is treated in this paper in detail. The paper is organizaed as follows: a discussion of accounting, assumptions and methodology is followed by behavioral equations for various agents within each of the two markets. References to other companion papers in this series will be made as needed.
Critical Determinants of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy in the Open Economy
Authors: Girton Lance , Henderson Dale W.
Published: August 2019

During the 1960's, rapid movements of large amounts of liquid financial capital increasinly frustrated attempts by the authorities in individual countries to conduct monetary policies that deverged to any great extent from those being followed in the world at large. The unwillingness of monetary authorities to reconcile themselves to limited opportunities for pursuing domestic objectives within the constraints imposed by the par value system led to the breakdown of the system and its replacement by a system of manged floating. It is important to identify the features of the monetary policy-making environment which contributed to these developments.
Interest Rates and Inflation in Argentina
Authors: Maroni Yves
Published: August 2019

This paper explores the nature of the relationship between interest rates and prices in Argentina since the end of 1971. The relevant data are shown in a table attached at the end of the paper. The evidence supports the view that, during this period, the successive movements of the Argentine inflation rate were directly explainable by such factors as changes in fiscal policy and wage policy. If movements of the nominal rates of itnerest contributed to the intensification or the decleration of inflation, it was not in the sense that higher interest rates increased costs and therefore add to upward prices presssures or the lower interest rates alleviated such preasures. Rather, when nominal interest rates rose, they rose less rapidly than prices and became increasingly negative in real terms, and, when they declined, they did so more slowly than prices and eventually became positive in real terms. By allowing increasingly negative real interest rates, the authorities promoted an intensification of credit demand which, at a time when the economy already was overheated, worsened inflation. By bringing about a restoration of positive real interest rates, they helped to reduce credit demand and thereby to alleviate inflationary pressures. Under a stabilization program intiated in April 1976, increase in interest rates at banks was used to help bring about a deceleration of inflation.
Inflation and Unemployment in Open Economies
Authors: Daniel Betty C.
Published: August 2019

Since Phillips first introduced the notion of a table, negative relationship between inflation and unemplotment, economists have debated it validity on theoretical and empirical grounds. Opponents have argues that if labor supply and labor demand both depand on the same real wage, then unemployment is fixed at the natural rate implied by that real wage, regardless of the rate of inflation. This "Phillips Curbe," interpreted loosely as the relationship between inflation and unemployment, is vertical instead of negatively sloped. To obtain a theoretical justification for the sometimes observed relationship, economists have appealed to the hypothesis that the real wate as perceived by the worker may differ from the real wage perceived by the employer. Specifically, an increase in teh price level is immediately perceived by the employer as a reduction in the real wage since the price of his product has risen. Workers do not realize that the general price level has risen and therefore do not perceive a reduction in their real wage. Thus, with higher inflation, greater output is possible until workers learn that the real wage has fallen. The latter induces a budding up of nominal wages returning real wages to their former levels. This hypothesis tields the negative relation between inflation and unemplotment in the short-run, byt requires a vertical Phillips Curve in the long-run. In the Nobel lecture, Friedman cites recent experience which suggests that there is a positive relationship between high rates of inflation and high unemployment. This paper offers a theoretical explanation for this phenomenon.
The Italian Economic Crises of the 1970's
Authors: Lubitz Raymond
Published: August 2019

The high rates of economic growth that Italy had enjoyed in the 1950's, and a slower byt still healthy pace in the 1960's, have disappeared in this decade. The Italian economy has suffered low investment and growth, high rates of inflation and balance of payments' difficulties, and these difficulties have erupted into two severe crises -- in 1974 and 1976 -- that required exceptional policy measures, external financial assistance, and the acceptance of externally-imposed economic conditions which have limited the policy authorities' scope for economic management. The select indicators below give the bare outlines of Italian economic performance in this decade.
Covered-Interest Arbitrage: Unexpolited Profits: Comment
Authors: McCormick Frank
Published: August 2019

In two recent articles in the Journal of Political Economy (April 1975 and Dec. 1977) Frenkel and Levich (henceforth F-L) undertook the very difficult task of trying to show that most discrepancies from covered-interest arbitrage parity can be explained by transaction costs in the securities and foreign exchange markets.
U.S. Banks and the North American Euro-Currency Market
Authors: Mills Rodney H. , Short Eugenie D.
Published: August 2019

The rapid growth of the Euro-currency market from its beginnings in the 1950's to the present has been widely publicized. Little attention, however, has been given to the enormous differentials in the growth of business conducted through different money market centers within the Euro-currency market. London has been by far the largest center of Euro-currency business, and it contrinues to be such. But London's primacy relative to other market centers has been diminish. During the 1970's, an creasing share of the business has been captured by various "offshore banking centers," i.e., localities where banking transactions are mainly with foreign customers. One group of offshore centers where Euro-currency activity has been outpacing London by a wide margin and which is of particular important to U.S. banks is the one now frequently referred to as the "North American Euro-currency market." This market--not a seperate market but a heographic subdivision of the worldwide Euro-currency market with certain unique characters--is now close to two-thirds the size of London in term of amounts of Euro-currency assets outstanding.
Wage Indexation, Flexible Exchange Rates, and Macro-Economic Policy
Authors: Sachs Jeffrey D.
Published: August 2019

After five years of floating exchange rates, the implications of flexible rates for countercyclical macroeconomic policies remain in doubt. Most neoclassical models exchange rate dynamics speak only indirectly to the issue the countercyclical policies, for the models are characterized by downward flexible prices and full employment equilbria. The prescriptions of standard Keynesian models, on the other hand, warrant scepticism. The Mundell-Fleming models, for example, suffects that expansionary monetary policy, by inducing a real exchange-rate depreciation, is effective in raising output in small, underemployed economy. The facts seem otherwise. In Italy, Great Britain, and other OECD countries expansionary monetary policies do not seem to have provided much real economic stimulus. In these countries, nominal money growth and depreciations have been followed by compensating increases in domestic wages and prices. Shifts in the real terms of trade between competitors have been blocked. Thus, the IMF notes "As a consequence of offsetting price and exchange rate developments, the parttern of competitiveness among most of the major industrial countries is not very similar to what it was early in 1973."
Testing for Rational Expectations in Foreign Exchange Markets
Authors: Tryon Ralph W.
Published: August 2019

The rational expectations hypothesis implies that if investors are risk neutral (and if transactions costs are zero), the current price for foreign exchange for future delivery -- the forward price -- will be unbiased predictor of the actual spot price at the time the forward contract matures. This proposition is conventionally tested by regressing the level of the current spot price on the level of the lagged forward price. This note proposes as alternative test, in which the chagne in the spot price, or rate of depreciation, is regressed on the forward discount rate. In general the two tests yield different results; it is further argued that the alternative test provides additional insight into the behavior of the forward exchange market. The two test equations are estimated for several exchange markets, and the alternative test is shown to reject rational expectations in a case where the conventional test does not.
Balance-of-Payments Adjustment from a U.S. Perspective: The Lessons of the 1970s
Authors: Truman Edwin M.
Published: August 2019

The balance-of-payments adjustment process is one of the old chestnuts of political economy. For decades, and some would say for centuries, economists have analyzed the ways and means by which actual potential imbalances in international transactions among nations are or should be eliminated. Similaryly, policy markers have struggled for years with the implications of payments imbalances for domestic economy and the international economy.
The U.S. Sector of the Multi-Country Model and Its Mulipliers
Authors: Kwack Sung Y.
Published: August 2019

The Multi-Country Model (MCM) was developed at the Federal Board by the Quantitative Studies Section of the Division of International Finance. The model links separate econometric models of the U.S., Canada, Germany, Japan, U.K., and the rest of the world. In contract to the Project LINK system, individual country models are linked, not only through trade prices, but also through capital flows, interest rates, and exchange rates. Thus, the model is designed to capture, more accurately than previously available models the economic interdependence of national economies.
A Technique for Extracting a Measure of Expected Inflation from the Interest Rate Term Structure
Authors: Frankel Jeffrey A.
Published: August 2019

Few macroeconomic variables are as curcial to so many current controversies, and yet as hard to measure in empirical work, as the expected inflation rate. Each of the proxies which are often used for the expected inflation rate has serious drawbacks. Public opinion survey data are not based on observed economic behavior. Lagged values of the actual inflation rate, or other relevant macroeconomic variables cannot hope to capture all the information that enters into formation of expectations (for example, the atest government accouncements of money growth). Future values of the actural inflation rate differ from the expected inflation rate by large expectational errors (even though they have mean zero if expectations are rational).
A Test of the Existence of the Risk Premium in the Foreign Exchange Market vs. the Hypothesis of Perfect Substitulability
Authors: Frankel Jeffrey A.
Published: August 2019

The paper tests for existence of a risk premium in the foreign exchange market. Alternative is that exchange risk is completely diversifiable, and thus warrants no premium. A discussion of exchange rate models subdivides the asset-market approach into those that assume imperfect substitutability between domestic and foreign assets, classified under the portfolio-balance approach, and those that assume perfect substitutability, classified under monetary approach. Since the existence of nondiversifiable exchange risk is the leading reason cited in support of imperfect substitutability, the test of the existence of a risk premium is to some extent a test of the portfolio-balance approach.
Stabilization Policy and Vicious and Virtuous Circles
Authors: Wallich Henry C. , Gray Jo Anna
Published: August 2019

This paper examines some selected aspects of the recent debate over "vicous" and "virtuous" circles that has accompanied the evolution of floating exchange rates during the 1970's. That evolution has gone through a number of stages since the onset of generalized floating early in 1973. Initially, fluctuations in exchange rates were wide. The dollar gyrated wildly, reflecting in part changing expectations about the prospective behavior of OPEC capital flows. Soon, however, it became apparent that many currencies could be classified as belonging to one of two polar groups. The pound and the lira depreciated while, at the same time, inflation rates in the U.K. and Italy rose. The D-mark and the Swiss franc appreciated while inflation rates in Germany and Switerzland diminished. Some currencies, however, could not at first be readily assigned to either the weak currency group or the string currency group. These currencies include the yen and the dollar, as well as the Canadian dollar and the French franc. Later, beginning near the end of 1977, the dollar, preceded by the Canadian dollar, joined the weak currency group. The yen joined the strong group. The French franc has continued in an intermediate position to the time of this write (August 1979).
Sticky Nominal Wages and the Optimal Employment Rule
Authors: Waldo Douglas G.
Published: August 2019

conventional monetary theory implies increases in the money supply will increase aggregate demand, and, consequently, raise the general price level and real output. One approach to the division of increased aggregate demand between prices and real output is the Natural Rate-Rational Expectations (NRRE) hypothesis. Papersby Robert Lucas (1972), Thomas Sargent (1973), and Thomas Sargent and Neil Wallace (1975), show that this hypothesis implies a very pessimistic view of the ability of the monetary authority to dampen cyclical fluctuations in real output. Under the NRRE hypothesis real output is independent of the systematic compenect of monetary policy. Some economists are critical of the auction market basis of NRRE hypothesis. For instance, Stanley Fischer (1977a) hypothesizes a macroeconomic model where sitcky nominal wage contracts prevent workers and entrepreneurs from offetting the effects of systematic policy on real wages. These changes in the real wage are assumed to induce changes in employment. Thus, in Fischer's model sticky nominal wage contracts imply a role for systematic monetary policy and also provide a rationale for the positive correlation between prices and real output.
Rational Destablizing Speculation and Exchange Invervention Policy
Authors: Canzoneri Matthew B.
Published: August 2019

The U.S. interpretation of the current international monetary regime has been explained by Anthony Solomon (1978), Undersecretary of the Treasury for Monetary Affairs, as follows: The basic philosophy of the new monetary system... is that international moneatry stability cannont be imposed from without, byt must be developed by countries from within, through the applciation of sound underlying economic and financial policies. In line with that concept, our program for assuring a strong and healthy dollar relies on fundamental economic performance, not on market operations to hold or attain a particular exchange rate zone. We do recognize, of course, that markets can become disorderly, subject to hreat undertainty, dominated by psychological factors and speculation. We have made clear that we are fully prepared to intervene in the markets to counter such disorders.
Rational Expectations, Risk Premia, and the Market for Spot and Forward Exchange
Authors: Meese Richard , Singleton Kenneth J.
Published: August 2019

Implicit in models of exchange rate determination that ssume markets for spot and forward rates are "efficient" are the assumptions of rational expectations, costless transactions, risk neutral market participants, and the absence of legal restrictions on transactions. Since these assumptions do not literally descrive the foreign echange market, the efficiency hypothesis also cannot be literally true. While this observation alone does not imply that the efficient markets model is poor approximation to the true model, the recent emirical studies of Geweke and Feige (1979), Hakkio (1979), and Hansen and Hodrick (1980a, b) suggect that there have been significant departures from efficiency during the 1970's.
Foreign Assistance Programs and Policies of the United States
Authors: Wallich Henry C. , Dod David P.
Published: August 2019

Since World War II the United States has instituted and maintained a variety of foreign assistance programs. Table 1 divides these program among three general categories--military assistace, economic assistance, and export-promotion loans--and inditactes how these programs have evoloved from 1946 to 1978. As these categories suggect, U.S. foreign assistance serves several distinct objectives. In the immediate postwar period, refugee relief and economic recontrsutrction in Europe were the main priorities. Military and trategiv objectives predominated during the 1950s, but the objectives of promoting economic devleopment in low-income countries and explanding U.S&gt; exports gained greatly in importance in the early 1960s.
Fluctuations in the Dollar: A Model of Nominal and Real Exchange Rate Determination
Authors: Hooper Peter , Morton John E.
Published: August 2019

This paper develops and tests empirically a model to explain movements in the dollar's foreign exchange value during the flexible exchange rate period since early 1973. The model is designed movements in both the nominal and real exchange rates, where the real exchange rate is defined as the nominal rate devided by relative prices. The empirical application is to the foreign exchange value of the dollar against the basket of currencies of ten major industrial countries.
The Implications of a Floating Exchange Rate Regime: A Survey of Federal Reserve Systems Papers
Authors: Gray Jo Anna , Shafer Jeffrey R.
Published: August 2019

Among the most sifnificant international developments of the last decade has been the emergence of an exchange rate system characterized by the widespread floating of major currencies. At times during the 1970's, the dollar and other currencies have fluctuated widely in value with respect to one another. The desire to understand better the implications of these exchange rate movements for trade flows, international capital movements, inflation rates, and other important economic variables has generated a substantial research effort. The paper provides a survey of recent contributions to this effort by Federal Reserve System economists, mainly work done in 1979.
Some Consequences of U.S. Taxation of Foreign Banks
Authors: Frankel Allen B.
Published: August 2019

Over the past decade, foreign-based banks have become important providers of banking services to U.S. residents. The available data suggest that the absence of reserve requirements on the deposists of the U.S. offices of foreign banks and the structure of U.S. taxation combined to provide an inducement of foreign-based banks to locate their U.S.-related banking business at U.S., rather than at offshore, offices. With the imposition of reserve requirements by the Federal Reserve in late 1980, some of these banks likely found that a foreign office location for their U.S. banksing business had become more profitable than a U.S. office. However, for other foreign banks, the continuation of Federal withholding tax interest paid to foreign residents (including the offshore offices of foreign banks) still makes it attractive for them to conduct their U.S. banking activities from U.S. offices.
Primary Energy Demand and Its Allocation Among Energy Sector Shares
Authors: Jacobson Laurence R. , Loftin Alice , Thurman Stephen S.
Published: August 2019

The price elasticity of energy demand has a profound influence on the calculated effects of energy supply and price shocks upon the macroeconomy. Depending on the assumed long-run magnitude of this elasticity, policy prescriptions for energy conservation and management may differ markedly. An accurate measure of the long-run energy demand price elasticity is difficult to obtain. On this issue we are faced with a complicated issues of production factor and energy substitution possibilities over dynamic long-run horizons stretching far beyond data currently available for extimation. This study investigates the long-run dynamic adjustment of total primary energy demand to energy prices and the distribution of these effects through disaggregated energy demand sectors which aloow for interfuel substitution possibilities within a singular equation system of energy share equations.
Dynamic Instability in Rational Expectations Models: An Attempt to Clarify
Authors: Gray Jo Anna
Published: August 2019

A prevalent feature of deterministic rational expectations macro-models is dynamic instability. Examples abound of both open and closed economy macro-models that "fly off the handle" unless precisely correct initial conditions on prices and/or exchange rates are satisfied. A common practice in calculating the equilibrium of these models is to arbitrarily select the stable arm of the model. This practice, in effect, rules out explosive and implosive solutions by assumption. It is sometimes justified by reference to an underlying framework involving intertemporal optimizing behavior. A frequently cited example of such a framework is provided by Brock.
Formulation and Estimation of a Dynamic Model of Exchange Rate Determination: An Application of General Method of Moments Techniques
Authors: Glaessner Thomas C.
Published: August 2019

The advent of floating exchange rates in 1973 has resulted in a proliferation of papers aimed at formulating and estimating models of spot exchange rate determination. Few of these models have been estimated with techniques that explicitly utilize the identifying restrictions imposed by the assumption of rational expectations. Moreover, those authors who have estimated their models subject to these restrictions have explicitly or implicitly made strong assumptions about (a) the exogeneity of the "forcing" variables and (b) the serial correlation properties of reduced form error terms.
The Canadian Sector of the Multi-Country Model
Authors: Howe Howard
Published: August 2019

The quarterly econometric model of Canada described in this paper is based on the prototype model of MCM presented in previous papers and in the forthcoming book, Ths U.S. Economy in an Interdependent World. Few departures from prototype specification were required to represent the functioning of the Canadian economy. The most critical areas for adaptation of the prototype to Canada lay in the financial sector. The Canadian financial system is characterized by close linkage to U.S. financial markets. Condsequently, Canadian interest rates have traditionally moved closely with U.S. interest rates. Because of this linkage, the Bank of Canada, in its RDX2 models, chose to model the process of interst rate determination by postulating a central bank reaction function for the short-term interest rate. Thus, the application of the MCM prototype to Canada represents a departure from accepted procedure for an influential group of Canadian modelers and merits further discussion. The first part of this paper reviews the model's financial sector. The second and third parts present dynamic simulation results and selected multiplier responses that characterize the Canadaian model.
The Risk Premium in the Market for Forward Foreign Exchange
Authors: Sibert Anne C.
Published: August 2019

This paper attempts to provide a theoretical link between future spot prices and current forward prices in the market for foreign exchange. A general equilibrium model is developed where economies experience country specific real and nominal shocks. Risk averse agents use forward foreign exchange markets as insurance against these shocks. The implications of the behavior for the existence and nature of a risk premium are discussed.
The International Transmission of Oil Price Effects
Authors: Marquez Jaime R.
Published: August 2019

That increases in oil prices (and/or in the prices of other primary commodities) can upset the world economy has been amply demonstrated in the last ten years. What is not so clearly apparent, however, are the dimensions of the effects and the complex channels of interaction by which they operate.
A Quantitative Reassessment of the Purchasing Power Parity Hypothesis: Evidence From Norway and the United Kingdom
Authors: Edison Hali J. , Klovland Jan Tore
Published: August 2019

The reemergence of empirical research on the purchasing power parity hypothesis (henceforth PPP) in the 1970's does not seem to have led to any consensus as to its general empirical validity. On the one hand, Gailliot, Myhrman, Officer and Friedman have presented historical evidence for many countries and over many time periods which supports the basic PPP hypothesis, i.e., that trends in relative price levels between two countries are offset by movements in the exchange rate in the long run. This conclusion stands out most clearly during time periods dominated by monetary disturbances. On the other hand, these findings contract sharply with the experience of the 1970's where evidence suggest persistent divergences of exchange rates from PPP.
The Current Account of the United States, Japan, and Germany: A Cyclical Analysis
Authors: Hooper Peter , Tryon Ralph W.
Published: August 2019

The current account positions of the major industrial countries have undergone very large swings in the past three years. Most observers now expect the U.S. current account, which was in surplus in 1981, to show a record deficit in 1983, and an even larger deficit in 1984. Swings in the Japanese and German current accounts have been equally dramatic in the opposite direciton, moving from deficit to surplus. The possible continuation of these deficits is a source of concern to policymakers to the extent, for example, that they and factors underlying them give rise to protectionist pressures or involve significant adjustment costs in tradable goods sectors.
The Foreign Sector in the U.S. Flow of Funds Accounts
Authors: Wilson John F.
Published: August 2019

Questions arise frequently about the relation between the Foreign Sector shown in the U.S. Flow of Funds Accounts (FFA) and the U.S. Balance of Payments (BPA statistics. Even casual inspection shows that there are sharp differences in detailed datea entries, although broader figures such as the U.S. current account balance and the statistical discrepency are much the same. This paper gives a description of the way the FFA Foreign Sector works and how it relates to the BPA statistics. It includes seceral illustrative tables and detailed line descprtions. The paper deals with statisitcal reconciliations; it does not present research results.
Oil Prices, Welfare Tradeoffs, and International Policy Coordination in a Three Region World Model: An Optimizing Approach
Authors: Marquez Jaime R. , Pauly Peter
Published: August 2019

The first purpose of this paper is to derive optimal oil prices by recognizing that oil price changes affect real income oil importers and vice versa. International trade flows, income, and prices are endogenously determind in a three region world model (DCs, OPEC, Non-OPEN LDCs). Using Chow's method for stochasit control of a general nonlinear dynamic system, we then offer a characterization of the set of efficient cooperative policy strategies for the country blocks considered there, given a weights in the welfare function. We aslo examine the sensitivity of the optimal policy mix to changes in the weights of the welfare function.
The Determination of Front-End Fees on Syndicated Eurocurrency Credit
Authors: Mills Rodney H. , Terrell Henry S.
Published: August 2019

The purpose of this study is to explain the factors that determined the levels of the front-end fees on syndicated Euroloans that were arranged in the three years 1981-83.
Loan Pushing: Doctrine and Theory
Authors: Darity William A.
Published: August 2019

Debt woes on a global scale compel attention simultaneously to a host of ongoing unresolved theoretical problems for economists. The problems broadly include the appropriate theory of the firm, the appropriate theory of banking behavior, the proper analysis of the formation on contracts, the correct treatment of the formation of individual and market expectations, and the nature of trade cycles and financial crises. Along the fragile precipice of international credit arrangements these problems surface flush red with high drama--a world of big banks, smaller banks, multinational guardian institutions, allegations of neoimperialist conspiracies, borrowing governments of questionable competence and incorruptibility, and persistent poverty among the masses of the populations of many of the borrowing nations.
Trade Policy for the Multiple Product Declining Industry
Authors: Mann Catherine L.
Published: August 2019

Increasing returns to scale and scope in production technology combined with product substitutability in demand yields an environment where free trade may not maximize domestic country welfare. If not, there is an optimal tax on imports that depends on the cross-elasticity of demand between the products in the spectrum and on the degree of economies of scale and scope in technology. However, even if protection may be warranted in the short run, the long run solution is consistent with the theory of comparative advantage.
Monetary Stabilization Policy in an Open Economy
Authors: Miller Marcus
Published: August 2019

This paper investigates optimal stabilization policy in a small open economy using a continuous time model in which inflation depends on future monetary policy as well as past inflation. The impact of monetary policy is assumed to operate via real interest rates and the real exchange rate and the setting of real interest rates is chosen so as to minimize quadratic costs of fluctuations in output and inflation, subject to varying expectations in the foreign exchange market. Analytical expressions and simulation results are presented for "time inconsistent" optimal policy, the "dynamic programming" solution, for policy which ignores the exchange rate effects when setting real interest rates, and for the "optimal linear feedback" rule.
Can Debtor Countries Service Their Debts? Income and Price Elasticities for Exports of Developing Countries
Authors: Marquez Jaime R. , McNeilly Caryl
Published: August 2019

Interest in income and price elasticities for international trade has increased recently because of the debt crisis that many developing countries are experiencing. Estimates of income elasticities of import demand, however, range from a low of 1.3 to a high of 4.7. Such differences have important implications for debtor and creditor countries alike. Using quarterly data for the period 1973-1981, this paper estimates income and price elasticities for non-oil imports of five major industrial countries from non-OPEC developing countries. The empirical results suggest that the income elasticity is closer to 1 than to 4.
The Yen-Dollar Relationship: A Recent Historical Perspective
Authors: Johnson Manuel H. , Loopesko Bonnie E.
Published: August 2019

This paper explores the interaction between exchange rate alignment and external balance for Japan and the United States. The analysis highlights the influence of current account developments on the yen-dollar exchange rate, as well as the reverse, and the interaction between the capital account and the exchange rate. We first sketch the broad outlines of the factors driving medium-run swings in the yen-dollar exchange rate over the floating rate period. After a brief consideration of the implications of financial liberalization for the yen-dollar exchange rate, the paper takes a more detailed look at the secular developments underlying movements in the yen-dollar relationship, tracing the evolution over the past two-and-a-half decades of some of the more salient structural features of the American and Japanese economies. Developments in each economy related to productivity, the composition and regional pattern of trade, real wages, the terms of trade and the savings-investment balance provide insights into the longer-run trends of the Japanese current account and associated pressures for yen appreciation over time. Finally, we weigh the relative contributions of changes in the exchange value of the yen and other economic factors in fostering more balanced trade between Japan and its major trading partners, including the United States. Evidence from the Multi-Country Model indicates that a 35 percent appreciation of the yen against the dollar over time will reduce Japan's surplus with the United States by $20 billion.
The Cost Competitiveness of the Europaper Market
Authors: Mills Rodney H.
Published: August 2019

Very little has been written about the cost competitiveness of the market for Europaper (Euronotes and Eurocommercial paper) despite the extraordinarily rapid growth of this market over the past three years. This paper tries to compare costs to the borrower on 3-month Europaper with similar costs in the U.S. commercial paper market. On the basis of weekly data in the period June-October, the conclusion is reached that the costs may have been lower in the Europaper market roughly one-third to one-half of the time. Rates paid to investors are, at most times and for most borrowers, lower in the U.S. market than in the Euromarket, but the higher remuneration to dealers in the U.S. market frequently means that all-in costs to the borrower are lower in the Euromarket. Because of the nature and limitations of the data, cost comparisons were limited to estimated rates paid in the two markets only by borrowers whose U.S. commercial paper is rated P-1 or A-1. U.S. market borrowing costs were estimated from published composite rates for double-A borrowers, with adjustments where the long-term debt rating of the borrower was not double-A, and from market reports about dealer fees. Europaper borrowing costs had to be inferred from secondary market quotations. Fluctuations in the relative rates suggest the frequent appearance and disappearance of "windows of opportunity" for borrowing in the market with the lower cost at the time.