bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Absence of a long-lived lunar paleomagnetosphere and opportunities for future exploration
Authors: Tarduno John
Published: March 2022

Understanding whether the Moon had a long-lived magnetic field is crucial for determining how the lunar interior and surface evolved, and in particular for assessing whether a paleomagnetosphere shielded the regolith. Magnetizations from some Apollo samples have been interpreted as records of a global lunar magnetic field between approximately 4.2 and 1.5 Ga that would have created shielding, but the inferred paleofields are too strong and continuous to be generated by the small lunar core. Moreover, vast areas of the lunar crust lack magnetic anomalies that should mark the past presence of a dynamo. New paleointensity data from an Apollo impact glass associated with a young 2 million-year-old crater records a strong Earth-like magnetization, providing evidence that impacts can impart intense signals to samples recovered from the Moon, and other planetary bodies (Tarduno, Cottrell, Lawrence et al., Science Advances, 2021). This observation provides motivation for future lunar collections to constrain impact size - magnetization scaling relationships. Moreover, new data from silicate crystals bearing magnetic inclusions from Apollo samples formed at 3.9, 3.6, 3.3, and 3.2, Ga are capable of recording strong core dynamo-like fields but do not, indicating the lack of a global magnetic field (Tarduno, Cottrell, Lawrence et al., Science Advances, 2021). Together, these new data indicate that the Moon did not have a long-lived core dynamo. As a result, the Moon was not sheltered by a sustained paleomagnetosphere, and the lunar regolith should hold buried 3He, water, and other volatiles resources acquired from solar winds and Earth’s magnetosphere over some 4 billion years. These findings highlight the opportunity to learn about the evolution of the solar wind and Earth’s earliest atmosphere during future lunar exploration. This could in turn provide key data to better understand how Earth evolved as a habitable planet despite the expected extreme solar forcing during its first billion years (Tarduno, Blackman, Mamajek, Phys. Planet Inter., 2014).
Assessing the well logging data from the Lake Bosumtwi (Ghana)
Authors: Zeeden Christian , Vinnepand Mathias , Kaboth-Bahr Stefanie , Gosling William , Kück Jochem , Wonik Thomas
Published: March 2022

Insights into the climate variability of western Africa during the Pleistocene epoch have thus far been limited by the lack of well-dated, high-resolution terrestrial climate archives. The missing information on the climate evolution of western African hampers our understanding of the proposed pan-African evolution of our species. The ~294 m lacustrine sedimentary sequence raised from Lake Bosumtwi by the International Continental Drilling program in 2004, encompassing the last ~1.1 Ma, offers the best opportunity provide a climatic benchmark record in western Africa. However, the establishment of a chronology for this record has proven challenging. To try and improve our understanding of the climatic evolution during the last ~1.1 Ma in western Africa, we will use the high-resolution downhole logging data (natural gamma ray, GR) and magnetic susceptibility data from core logging from Site 5, which is situated in the centre of Lake Bosumtwi. To maximise the robustness of this record we will try to correlate data from downhole logs with core data. This approach has help improve interpretation of logging signals and environmental reconstructions for other long lake records, such as e.g. Lake Ohrid.
Long-term dynamics of reservoirs across the globe
Authors: Weerts Albrecht , Hazenberg Pieter , van Osnabrugge Bart , van Verseveld Willem
Published: March 2022

In many places of the world, reservoirs play an important role in relation to water security, flood risk, agriculture production, hydropower, hydropower potential, and environmental flows. By limiting the amount of water flowing out of the reservoir, reservoirs control flooding downstream, but they can also increase downstream runoff during drought.  

Detailed information about reservoir management (e.g. inflow, volume and outflow operations) is generally unknown or only available to the local control authority. As a result, large-scale information on reservoir dynamics is currently unknown. Recently, reservoir volume dynamics have been estimated from satellite observations based on reservoir surface area estimates. While Earth observation (EO) has the potential to monitor water from space and fill this gap, temporal resolution of these datasets generally varies between 3-7 days without direct information on reservoir inflow and outflow. Hydrological model reanalysis provides a complementary data source. Using cloud computing infrastructure and a high resolution distributed hydrological model wflow_sbm, we present a novel dataset of historical daily reservoir variations for 3236 headwater reservoirs across the globe for the period 1970-2020. Results derived with wflow_sbm model forced with various forcing sources based on observations and reanalysis (ERA5, EOBS, CHIRPS, NLDAS, BOM, MSWEP) are compared with: 1) measured discharge observations, 2) in situ reservoir elevation and volume measurement, and 3) volume estimates derived using satellite observations. Overall good comparisons between the hydrological model and the different measurement sources are observed, although considerable variations are observed. During the presentations we will zoom in on some of the large-scale changes in reservoir dynamics as observed in South America and Africa and how these potentially impact society.

 
Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Measurement with Weather Radar
Authors: Caseri Angelica , Angelis Carlos Frederico
Published: March 2022

Extreme rainfall events can cause flash floods and are responsible for socioeconomic damage worldwide. In Campinas, southeastern Brazil, countless events take place throughout the year. In order to monitor and predict these events, with the support of Fapesp's SOS-Chuva project, a mobile rainfall radar was installed in the region. With the purpose to identify the accuracy of this data, the radar data were compared with rain gauge data. Through this study, it is noted that, at some points, the difference between the rain gauges measurements and the radar data is significant, which may hinder the calibration and performance of a rainfall-runoff hydrological model. To improve the rainfall measurement considering both data source, this study proposes to combine both information and generate rainfall probabilistic maps, derived from geostatistical methods, thus making possible to quantify the uncertainty of these data.
Preseismic slip and foreshocks on rough faults embedded in a damage zone
Authors: Cattania Camilla , Segall Paul
Published: March 2022

Faults exhibit geometrical heterogeneity at all scales, which induces spatial variations in normal stress and hence strength. Additionally, fault zones comprise multiple fractures which can host seismicity and further modify the stress state on the mainshock fault. Here we study how geometrical complexity affects the precursory phase of large earthquakes. We model seismic cycles on fractal faults with uniform velocity-weakening rate-state friction, loaded by a uniform far-field stressing rate. We also include the effect of surrounding damage, represented by a collection of smaller faults with a power-law decay of density with distance from the main fault.
We find that heterogeneity in normal stress σ induced by roughness controls slip behavior: regions with low σ begin to slip aseismically early in the cycle, loading high σ regions (asperities) which eventually fail seismically generating foreshocks. The precursory phase is characterized by a positive feedback between aseismic slip and foreshocks, with stress changes from each process accelerating the other. In simulations including subparallel secondary faults in the damage zone, this process does not take place on the main fault but instead on smaller, off-fault structures. In both cases, mainshocks nucleate on strong asperities at the edge of the preslip area, which is significantly larger and spatially distinct from mainshock nucleation. These features are consistent with a number of observations at different scales, including laboratory experiments, sub-glacial slip events, and foreshock sequences of megathrust earthquakes.
Attributing Recent Variability in the AMOC to Surface Buoyancy-Forcing
Authors: Marris Charlotte , Marsh Robert
Published: March 2022

Variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on interannual to multidecadal timescales can primarily be linked to the strength of deep-water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic, where surface buoyancy-forcing transforms light surface waters to the dense waters of the southward-flowing lower-limb of the AMOC. The role of surface buoyancy-forcing in driving AMOC variability is of consequence for the regional transport and distribution of heat, carbon, and nutrients, and thus its quantification is essential for predicting how the AMOC will respond to and influence future global climate change. In a water mass transformation (WMT) framework, fields of surface density flux and surface density from the GODAS ocean reanalysis are used to reconstruct the surface-forced overturning circulation (SFOC) streamfunction for the subpolar North Atlantic (45-65 °N) over 1980-2020. The SFOC reconstruction is longitudinally partitioned into an East component, comprising the Irminger/Iceland basin, and a West component, comprising the Labrador Sea. Interannual changes in the dominant location of deep-water formation in the subpolar North Atlantic are thus elucidated. The reconstructed overturning is also partitioned in density, to separate contributions from two major North Atlantic water masses – Labrador Sea Water (LSW) and Subpolar Mode Water (SPMW) – which are inherently linked to variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), influencing WMT across the subpolar North Atlantic. The analysis provides transport estimates complementary to those obtained with observations from the OSNAP array since 2014, revealing that recent (post-2014) domination of overturning by SPMW formation in the eastern subpolar gyre may be transient.
Large and small-scale multi-sensors remote sensing for dumpsites characterization and monitoring
Authors: Celauro Angela , Cagnizi Matteo , Cappello Annalisa , D'Amato Emilio , D'Aranno Peppe Junior Valentino , Ganci Gaetana , Lodato Luigi , Marini Ilenia , Marsella Maria , Moriero Ilaria
Published: March 2022

Remote sensing techniques are an ever-growing reliable means for monitoring, detecting and analysing the spatial and temporal changes of solid waste and landfill sites. In this paper, different UAV and satellite sensors are used to detect, characterize and monitor dumpsites in Sicily (Italy). In particular, data acquired and processed are (i) high-density point clouds detected from LIDAR sensor; (ii) optical photograms with a resolution of 3 cm; (iii) thermal photograms with a resolution of 5 cm/pixel and (iv) multispectral photograms with 5 cm/pixel. High spatial resolution UAV multispectral and thermal remote sensing allowed for the extraction of indicators, such as the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Land Surface Temperature (LST), useful to characterize the changes in the vegetation and the skin temperature increase due to organic waste decomposition, respectively. On the other hand, the processing of UAV optical images to extract high-resolution orthophotos and their integration with high-density point clouds obtained from LIDAR, were used to provide the identification of the effective perimeter of the landfill body and the extraction of waste volumes. These products were integrated and compared with those obtained from different kinds of medium-to-high spatial resolution satellite images, such as from Landsat, Aster, Sentinel-2 and Planetscope sensors. Results show that UAV data represents an excellent opportunity for detecting and characterizing dumpsites with an extremely high detail, and that the joint use with satellite data is recommended for having a comparison on different scales, allowing continuous monitoring. Additional SAR data methodologies will be investigated for evaluating the landfill body landslides over the years that could be integrated with high resolution satellite multispectral and hyperspectral images for monitoring dumpsites environmental impact.
Artificial recharge effects in water balance of a peri-urban semi-arid catchment: a case study in an Andean aquifer using WEAP-MODFLOW
Authors: Sanzana Pedro , Vargas Melissa , Muñoz Mauricio , Soto Cristobal , Gironas Jorge , Braud Isabelle
Published: March 2022

Artificial recharge in urban and peri-urbans areas is not a typical practice, but the prolonged severe drought in central Chile has encouraged the study of this practice as an option for optimal and sustainable water management. The Andean piedmont of Santiago (Chile) has been urbanized that implies high water consumptions and increasing irrigation, which in turn acts as a new groundwater recharge. We simulated the period 1989-2015 using an integrated surface and subsurface model (WEAP-MODFLOW) to evaluate the impact of urbanization in groundwater recharge in a representative catchment in the area. An artificial recharge injection of 100 l/s (60,480 m3/day) was introduced in the model for a period of 26 weeks in a specific year (2009, between week 27 to 52, included). The recharge wells were implemented in key zones of the upper aquifer and monitoring wells were also implemented in different zones. The artificial recharge reproduced the hydraulic dome created by the infiltration flow, locally reaching a height of 6 m and beginning to dissipate approximately at 2.5 km (≤ 0.5 m) from the injection point. Moreover, we created a zone budget control section (2 km downstream) and we observed impacts on the water level in this sector, with a 1-year lag  year after starting artificial recharge. The maximum impact was observed after approximately 1.5 years. Not only the study watershed has a high natural storage capacity, which benefits natural water retention, but its average residence time (4 years) is quite. Thus, our results could encourage different public or private stakeholders in the watershed to implement low impact development practices that could infiltrate water to cope with water shortage periods.
Combining satellite and in situ data to investigate the marine atmospheric boundary-layer structure and trade-wind cumuli organization
Authors: Brilouet Pierre-Etienne , Bouniol Dominique , Couvreux Fleur , Ayet Alex , Granero-Belinchon Carlos , Lothon Marie , Mouche Alexis
Published: March 2022

Studying the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) processes through satellite products is challenging. Here, we propose an innovative approach to investigate the MABL turbulent structures thanks to the spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images combined with the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) images.

Due to access difficulties, the number of field campaigns carried out over the sea is limited. In this framework, the intensive EUREC4A field campaign that took place over the Western Tropical Atlantic Ocean, in Jan-Feb 2020, provides a relevant context with reference in situ measurements to evaluate the spaceborne observations. Especially the turbulence measurements of the French ATR-42 research aircraft, which include fine scale measurements of air motion, provide a valuable support to validate the hypothesis of a sea surface roughness signature of atmospheric coherent structures in the SAR images.

The February 13, 2020 day was chosen as a case study, given the good spatial and temporal colocalization between the airborne measurements and the satellite overpass. Two types of atmospheric processes are investigated: convective rolls in clear sky regions and cold pools characterizing the convective activity areas. The size and the orientation of the convective rolls has been characterize through the correlation function of the surface roughness and provides a very good correlation with the characteristics deduced from the airborne in situ data. Also, an object identification method is used to segregate the cold pools within the SAR image. Their characteristics such as their size, age and spreading rate can then be estimated with respect to the cloud field evolution provided by the GOES data.
Lower-Hybrid waves observed by Rosetta at comet 67P
Authors: Odelstad Elias , Eriksson Anders , Karlsson Tomas
Published: March 2022

Electric field measurements from cometary environments are very rare, but can provide important information on how plasma waves help fashion the plasma environment. We investigate the plasma wave activity observed in the electric field measurements obtained by the Langmuir probe instrument (RPC-LAP) onboard ESA's Rosetta spacecraft, which followed the comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in its orbit around the sun for over two years in 2014-2016. We focus on waves in the range 1-30 Hz, roughly corresponding to the lower-hybrid frequency range. Here, electric field oscillations close to the local H2O+ lower hybrid frequency are common. Especially large wave amplitudes are often observed at or near pronounced plasma density gradients, and a linear instability analysis shows that conditions are often favourable for wave growth by the lower hybrid drift instability. However, the association to density gradients is not ubiquitous and other instabilities are likely needed as well to explain the observed wave activity, e.g. the two-stream instability between solar wind protons and cometary pick-up ions. Close to peak activity of the comet however, the solar wind flow was entirely diverted and excluded from the inner parts of the coma, where the spacecraft was. Here, we instead propose that an ion/ion streaming instability between cold newborn cometary ions and heated heavy ions that were picked up earlier, plays an important role for generating the waves observed in the lower hybrid frequency range. We compare theoretical conditions for growth of these instabilities to observed conditions in the plasma at 67P. This investigation helps to clarify the role and importance of these plasma waves in the cometary plasma environment. They can, for example, heat or cool plasma populations, produce supra-thermal electrons, reduce plasma anisotropies and gradients, couple different plasma species, and provide anomalous resistivity.
Photolysis of biomass burning organic aerosol, chemical transformations and photo-bleaching
Authors: O'Brien Rachel , Yu Hongmin , Warren Natalie , Adamek Marley , Jaffe Aron , Lim Christopher , Kroll Jesse , Cappa Chris , Jordan Carolyn , Anderson Bruce
Published: March 2022

Brown carbon (BrC) in aerosol particles and cloud droplets can contribute to climate warming by absorbing solar radiation in the visible region of the solar spectrum. Large uncertainties remain in our parameterization of this warming, in part due to a lack of knowledge about atmospheric lifetimes for the chromophores (the light absorbing structures in BrC molecules). An important removal pathway includes chemical transformations that fragment the chromophore, thus removing its ability to absorb visible light. However, the photochemical loss rates measured in the laboratory do not generally match what is observed in ambient measurements. There are also different amounts of photo-resistant BrC, which is a fraction of the mixture that does not rapidly bleach. An important BrC source in the atmosphere is biomass burning and the overall photochemical decay rates for these emissions are important to quantify to improve our parameterizations of their radiative effects. Here we show results for laboratory studies of FIREX filter samples probing the role of water vapor in photolysis of aerosol particles irradiated on a filter. Kinetic analysis of photo-bleaching in aqueous solutions demonstrates that an intermediate photolysis rate should be included to improve predictions for BrC lifetimes in the atmosphere.
Using UAS-based LiDAR data to quantify oyster reef structural characteristics for temporal monitoring
Authors: Espriella Michael C. , Lecours Vincent , Lassiter H. Andrew , Wilkinson Benjamin
Published: March 2022

Given the global decline in oyster reef coverage, conservation and restoration efforts are increasingly needed to maintain the ecosystem services these biogenic features offer. However, monitoring and restoration are constrained by a lack of continuous quantitative metrics to effectively assess reef health. Traditional sampling methods typically provide a limited perspective of reef status, as sampling areas are just a fraction of the total reef area. In this study, an unoccupied aircraft system collected LiDAR data over oyster reefs in Cedar Key, FL, USA to develop digital surface models (DSMs) of their 3D structure. Ground sampling was also conducted in randomly placed quadrats to enumerate the live and dead oysters within each plot. Over 20 topographic complexity metrics were derived from the DSM, allowing relationships between various geomorphometric measures and reef health to be quantified. These data informed generalized additive models that explained up to 80% of the deviation of live to dead oyster ratios in the quadrats. While topographic complexity has been associated with reef health in the past, this process quantifies the relationships and indicates what metrics can be relied on to efficiently monitor intertidal oyster reefs using DSMs. The models can also inform restoration efforts on which surface characteristics are best to replicate when building restored reefs.  
Earthquake swarms and clusters in stable continental regions: a case study from Northern Norway 
Authors: Shiddiqi Hasbi Ash , Ottemöller Lars , Halpaap Felix , Rondenay Stéphane
Published: March 2022

Parts of northern Norway, located between the rifted Mid Norwegian margin and the Northern Scandinavian mountains, are seismically active despite being situated in a stable continental region. Previously, seismic swarms have been observed in different places along the coast, but detailed studies on the swarms could not yet be carried out due to sparse seismic networks. During the last decade, the number of seismic stations has increased significantly, allowing for a more detailed study of the seismicity. Here, we develop a machine-learning-based earthquake catalog from eleven years of continuous data (2010-2021) and combine it with the earthquake catalog from the Norwegian National Seismic Network. To improve accuracy, we perform relative earthquake relocation using differential times, and clustering analysis based on waveform cross-correlation. The relocation results reveal distinct clusters of possibly repeating events and several swarm sequences. A prominent seismic swarm occurred in the Jektvik area between 2014 – 2016 with the largest magnitude of ML 3.2. We compare the spatio-temporal distribution, b-value, seismic moment rate, and seasonal variation of each sequence. The Jetkvik swarm exhibits a diffusive pattern, which together with a low VP anomaly found by a previous tomography study suggests that fluids may play a role in the source process. We find that the possibly repeating clusters are not as diffuse in space, and mostly spread along the vertical axis. These earthquake clusters may be attributed to fault intersections, and fluids may not be a major factor in their generation. 
Tools for the adaptation to climate change and monitoring of soil environmental quality.
Authors: Martínez-Sanchez Maria Jose , Perez-Sirvent Carmen , Martínez-López Salvadora , Martínez-Martínez Lucía , Gómez-Martínez Carmen , Bech Jaume , Hernández-Córdoba Manuel
Published: March 2022

The use of indicators for soil monitoring is a long-established methodology that can be applied in the context of climate change. It makes it possible to establish the state of the variable to be measured and to obtain an objective signal of the changes that occur over time. Obtaining a climate adaptation indicator (CAI) for Mediterranean rainfed soils is a very useful monitoring tool for decision-making and for the incorporation of mitigation measures.

Within the LIFE AMDRYC4 project, a framework has been outlined in which a) environmental indicators of the chemical degradation of soils (salinity, alkalinity, fertility, phytotoxicity) and the erosion indicator, b) biodiversity indicators (vegetation indices, Shannon-Weaver indices, Simpson, ...) and c) organic carbon indicator have been used.  These primary indicators can be summarized resulting in a higher rank one represented by the soil ecosystem services indicator (SESI) which reflects the soil global condition obtained from the base data for each established monitoring point. By combining the SESI with a transformative indicator such as the one calculated on the basis of the increase of organic C in the soil (mitigation indicator, MI), the indicator of climate adaptation is obtained, using a procedure based on fuzzy methodology.

In the calculation of the phytotoxicity indicator, the assimilable values of selected trace elements that can cause phytotoxicity are determined and their variation over time is monitored. The selected trace elements, in this case Pb, Cd and B, may vary from one area to another depending on the geochemical background of the soil.  

The results obtained for several soil plots that have been subjected to organic matter incorporation treatments (sewage sludge, manure from different animals, composted plant remains) and their untreated counterparts (blank) clearly show an improvement of the soil characteristics after the application of the mentioned soil treatment strategies. The soils are not affected by the polluting processes, both in terms of potentially toxic elements and other emerging pollutants. The experimental data obtained indicate that the remediated soils can be useful to reduce the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and represent a good tool for combating climate change.

The authors are grateful to LIFE16 CCA/ES/000123-LIFE AMDRYC4 Project for the financial support
Insight on the 2014 MJMA 6.7, northern Nagano earthquake sequence evolution in space and time through high resolved earthquake locations
Authors: Muzellec Titouan , De Landro Grazia , Zollo Aldo , Russo Guido
Published: March 2022

The estimation of spatial and temporal changes in the host medium physical properties is a quest to improve risk evaluation and hazard forecasting application. The space-time evolution of the seismicity gives information about stress variations, fluid content, and pore-pressure changes inside the medium. Thus, the accuracy of arrival-time measurements is crucial for travel-time-based seismological applications, such as earthquake location and travel(delay)-time tomography, especially when double-difference times are used. Standard monitoring networks and tools implements single-station, STA/LTA-based, automatic event detection/location procedures, which may produce inconsistent arrival-times of the same phase among stations. To overcome this problem, refined cross-correlation (CC) techniques for time picking have been recently developed. Their basic approach is to use CC to refine picks of event pairs with high waveform similarity. Similar events are grouped in families, considering the max CC values, the inter-distance and/or the focal mechanism similarity. Two drawbacks of this common approach are (1) the impact of noise from individual receiver levels on the quality of reference trace (RT) and (2) the inability to adjust the systematic shift of automatic picks.

Here we propose a new, fully automatic approach to refine the phase time picks. The CC is used to identify family members with a hierarchical clustering procedure. In each family, after the trace alignment, we build the RT by stacking the events weighted by the signal-to-noise ratio and the polarity. We applied this technique to a catalog of 3574 events of the 2014 MJMA 6.7 sequence occurred at the Northern Nagano prefecture. The results indicate that we can improve the precision of phase picks of similar events and to adjust the systematic shift introduced by the automatic picker with mean differences between refined and automatic picks up to 0,5-1 s.

The high consistency of the phase picks allows to increase the accuracy of absolute location by reducing the mean location error from 0,6 km to 0,1 km and the root-mean-square from 0,15 to 0,075. Consequently, we observe an alignment of the seismicity respect to the main fault plane with an 30°-45° east-dipping angle for the shallow part while the deeper part dips at 50°-65°. Then, the double difference location provides highly resolved hypocenter locations and medium parameters by considering events of the same family as events pair. This improvement allows to use fast-tracking methods, as the Vp/Vs in time and the Coda-Wave Interferometry, to get information about the velocity variations before and during the sequence. By using those methods, we expect to get accurate information of the physical properties evolution and especially about the role of fluid in the triggering of the sequence.
Health-relevant influences of air constituents and meteorological conditions
Authors: Koller Stephanie , Hertig Elke
Published: March 2022

The aim of this project is to investigate the influence of health-relevant air-hygienic and climatological parameters on emergency room visits at the University Hospital of Augsburg. This is achieved by quantifying the effects of increased exposure to air substances and weather extremes.

The emergency admission data from 2017 and 2018 are available as medical data basis. Among the air constituents, ozone, nitrogen dioxide and particulate matter values ​​are used, measured by several stations in Augsburg. The meteorological database contains the daily mean and daily maximum values ​​of several parameters such as air temperature, humidity, and wind. In addition, a catalog of different weather conditions was created. For this purpose, five Principal Component Analyzes were performed, one for each season and one for the entire year.

The medical data set was broken down according to the seasons and days with specific meteorological conditions (e. g. heat days) or days that exceeded the WHO recommendations for air pollutants. These sub-divisions were undertaken in order to identify differences of the number of admissions under the occurrence of extreme days. To account for the possible delay between exposure and emergency cases, a lead time of up to seven days was included.

The results so far show that in almost all subgroups of the ICD-10 classification there are highly significant correlations between the weather and air conditions and the number of emergency admissions. These occur almost exclusively on meteorological extreme days or when the WHO air pollution guideline values are exceeded. The strength of the correlations between the individual diagnoses and subgroups differs significantly. The proportion of age, gender and place of residence-specific differences can be classified as low. However, there are individual diseases in almost every main group that are showing very clear differences, sometimes even opposite correlations, between men and women or urban and suburban residents.

The project is funded by the German Federal Environment Foundation and the German Research Foundation under - project number 408057478.
Mechanics of shallow slip in low-angle normal fault earthquakes: insight from 3D dynamic rupture models constrained by multi-timescale observations
Authors: Biemiller James , Gabriel Alice , Ulrich Thomas
Published: March 2022

Despite decades-long debate over the mechanics of low-angle normal faults dipping less than 30°, many questions about their strength, stress, and slip remain unresolved. Recent geologic and geophysical observations have confirmed that gently-dipping detachment faults can slip at such shallow dips and host moderate-to-large earthquakes. Here, we analyze the first 3D dynamic rupture models to assess how different stress and strength conditions affect rupture characteristics of low-angle normal fault earthquakes. We model observationally constrained spontaneous rupture under different loading conditions on the active Mai’iu fault in Papua New Guinea, which dips 16-24° at the surface and accommodates ~8 mm/yr of horizontal extension. We analyze four distinct fault-local stress scenarios: 1) Andersonian extension, as inferred in the hanging wall; 2) back-rotated principal stresses inferred paleopiezometrically from the exhumed footwall; 3) favorably rotated principal stresses well-aligned for low-angle normal-sense slip; and 4) Andersonian extension derived from depth-variable static fault friction decreasing towards the surface. Our modeling suggests that subcritically stressed detachment faults can host moderate earthquakes within purely Andersonian stress fields. Near-surface rupture is impeded by free-surface stress interactions and dynamic effects of the gently-dipping geometry and frictionally stable gouges of the shallowest portion of the fault. Although favorably-inclined principal stresses have been proposed for some detachments, these conditions are not necessary for seismic slip on these faults. Finally, we explore how off-fault damage and slip on steeper splay faults in the hanging wall of a detachment fault influences shallow rupture patterns and coseismic surface displacement during large earthquakes. We present a new suite of models with synthetic or antithetic splay faults dipping 45°, 60°, or 75° that incorporate off-fault plastic failure for different host rock strengths. Coseismic splay fault reactivation limits shallow slip on the detachment and localizes surface displacements outboard of the detachment trace, most strongly when synthetic shallowly-dipping splay faults are present. Our results demonstrate how integrated geophysical and geologic observations can constrain dynamic rupture model parameters to develop realistic rupture scenarios of active faults that may pose significant seismic and tsunami hazards to nearby communities.
Assessing the uncertainty of expert observations of cloud characteristics based on data from a field campaign in the Arctic ocean in August-September 2021
Authors: Borisov Mikhail , Krinitskiy Mikhail
Published: March 2022

The sun is the closest natural source of radiation, both shortwave and longwave. The state of the atmosphere, and in particular the Total Cloud Cover (TCC) and the Lower Cloud Cover (LCC), most strongly affects the transfer of incoming solar radiation to the surface. At the moment, the amount and types of clouds are assessed primarily by an expert using visual observation, and such an assessment is considered reliable according to WMO observations guide. However, it is known that the estimates of an observer are subject to errors due to the subjectivity of perception of the visual cloudy scene. Uncertainty in observer estimates may lead to significant inaccuracies in operational weather forecast systems as well as in reanalyses and climatic time series. In addition, the lack of knowledge about the observation error limits one in assessing the corresponding uncertainty of the climatic trends of cloudiness characteristics. In this study, we investigated the uncertainty in the estimates of the TCC, LCC.

To carry out such a study, we conducted an experiment involving the simultaneous observation of the same cloudy situation by several observers. The experiment was carried out on board the Akademik Ioffe research vessel during the AI-58 research cruise from August 18 till September 6 of 2021 in Kara, Baltic and White Seas. The experiment involved 19 volulntary participants. There were 78 observation moments. The number of observers varied from 5 to 19 due to their own duties onboard. On average, the cloud characteristics were assessed by 12 participants.

Thus, in the present study, the uncertainties of cloud characteristics estimated by one forgetful independent observer several times in equivalent conditions were simulated with a large number of experts participating in synchronous observations. We demonstrate that the disparity of opinions is small for simple cloudy situations in which the sky is almost clear or mostly covered by clouds. We also show that the uncertainty in the conditions of moderate cloudiness can reach 1.5 oktas in terms of standard deviation.

This study may help clarifying existing and future models for assessing meteorological characteristics, as well as models used to calculate incoming solar radiation. We plan to assess the uncertainty of cloud types observed by human experts. We will also repeat our experiment in other regions of the World Ocean in order to expand the variety of observed cloud situations, in which a wider range of expert opinions can be expected, as well as to form a dataset balanced w.r.t. synoptic conditions.
Loss of Earth System Resilience during Early Eocene Global Warming Events
Authors: Setty Shruti , Cramwinckel Marlow Julius , Leemput Ingrid van de , Nes Egbert H. van , Lourens Lucas J. , Sluijs Appy , Scheffer Marten
Published: March 2022

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM; 56 Ma) and Eocene Thermal Maximum 2 and 3 (ETM2; 54.06 Ma and ETM3; 52.87 Ma) were three of a series of abrupt climate and carbon cycle perturbations, characterized by massive carbon input into the ocean-atmosphere system and strong global warming. These abrupt events, termed hyperthermals, potentially represent ‘tipping points’ at moments in time when the resilience of the system was low and reinforced by strong internal feedbacks, such as the catastrophic release of carbon from submarine methane hydrates. Alternatively, external mechanisms such as volcanism may have played a pronounced external role during the PETM. Here, we evaluate if the hyperthermals indeed resulted from reduced Earth System resilience and tipping point behaviour through the mathematical analyses of climate and carbon cycle indicators, namely, oxygen and stable carbon isotope ratios of deep ocean foraminifer calcite, across the late Paleocene and early Eocene. Our combined analysis using Dynamic Indicators of Resilience (DIORs) and Convergent Cross Mapping (CCM) reveals a loss of resilience and an increase in the causal interaction between the carbon cycle and climate towards the PETM, ETM2, and ETM3. A novel, windowed CCM approach indicates a tight coupling between carbon and climate across the early Eocene, further supporting dominant climate forcing on carbon cycle dynamics. This indicates that the internal rather than external mechanisms were responsible for the hyperthermals, suggesting a secondary role for endogenic processes such as volcanism. Furthermore, the CCM analysis in conjunction with the absence of major positive feedbacks such as the presence of polar ice caps during early Eocene could be employed to stipulate that these hyperthermal events may be caused by the increase in coupling between the carbon cycle and climate systems, eventually pushing both systems towards a tipping point through increasing positive feedbacks.
Mixed sedimentation of the North Sea Fan – insights on volumes of contourites, plumites and downslope deposits during a full glacial-interglacial cycle
Authors: Garcia Aurora , Bellwald Benjamin , Midtkandal Ivar , Planke Sverre , Anell Ingrid , Sternai Pietro , Myklebust Reidun
Published: March 2022

Trough mouth fans are important depocenters for glacial sedimentation in high latitude margins, recording sedimentological processes and their relationship with paleoclimatic fluctuations on short timescales - from decades to millennia. The volume of sediments accumulated in these fans varies significantly depending on the phase of the glacial cycle, with higher values typically reached during early retreats. The input of large volumes during short time intervals can potentially trigger submarine landslides and overpressure build-up, making the understanding of processes and proportions related to sedimentation in glaciated margins crucial, especially during periods of global warming. In this study we use high-quality 3D seismic cubes (vertical resolution of 2 m and bin size of 6.25 x 18.75 m) to delimitate different types of deposits on an area over 14000 km2 on the North Sea Trough Mouth Fan during a full glacial-interglacial cycle of the last glaciation (Weichselian). After mapping the corresponding top and base surfaces of each type of deposit their volumes were calculated using the mean thickness of the beds multiplied by their extent. The base of the studied package comprises a contourite body deposited on top of the Tampen Slide, whose failure is estimated to have happened around 130 ka ago. Next we have a thick (> 400 m) mixed package of debris flows and meltwater turbidites, with its rapid deposition happening during approximately 4 ka (~23 to 19 ka). The package is then completed with plume settling related to the full retreat of the ice stream. Although not completely interpreted due to limitations of the dataset extent and remobilization of a part of the fan by the Storegga Slide in the northern part, the last glacial cycle comprises a total of 7160 km3 of sediments, with more than half of it (4850 km3) originated from the downslope processes. The plumites and contourites comprise volumes of 1105 km3 and 1205 km3. This accounts to a significant variability of the magnitude of sediment volume coming into the sink per year, with the downslope deposits having over 100 times more sediment input and the plumites 5 times more when compared to the contourites. These results highlight the range of sediment volume that can be delivered in a glaciated margin depending on changes in processes and climatic fluctuations, which may also entail changes in the potential geohazards.
Causality and information transfer in interactions of solar wind, radiation belts and geomagnetic field
Authors: Manshour Pouya , Papadimitriou Constantinos , Balasis George , Palus Milan , Wing Simon , Daglis Ioannis A. , Donner Reik , Boutsi Adamantia Zoe , Consolini Giuseppe , Kurths Juergen , Tsurutani Bruce T.
Published: March 2022

Understanding physical processes that drive dynamics of the radiation belts - the high-energy charged particle population trapped by the geomagnetic field in the inner magnetosphere, is of great importance for science and society. In fact, this population dynamically interacts with the solar wind and geomagnetic field over various temporal and spatial scales, and can have significant impacts on its surrounding environment, including hazards to satellites and astronaut health. Understanding the relevant acceleration mechanisms of these particles can help not only to uncover the underlying physics, but also to improve our ability to predict and to protect. Despite numerous attempts over several decades, unfolding the dynamics of interactions in such systems is still one of the challenging research areas and has not yet been achieved, due to the complex and nonlinear underlying physics of the radiation belts. However, information theory is not constrained by such limitations and has proven itself to be a powerful non-parametric approach to discover the causal interactions among different nonlinear complex systems, and can be considered complementary to physics-based approaches. In this work, we apply entropy-based causality measures such as conditional mutual information to determine the information transfer between various variables including different solar wind parameters and geomagnetic activity indices obtained from NASA’s OmniWeb service and omnidirectional electron fluxes from the MagEIS units onboard Van Allen Probe B in the outer radiation belt, ranging in energy from a few keV to several MeV. We find significant information flow from low energy electrons into high energy ones as well as from some solar wind/geomagnetic field parameters into electron fluxes of various energies. We are confident that our results provide great prospects for future targeted research on the dynamical mechanisms underlying radiation belts dynamics.

This work has benefitted from discussions within the International Space Science Institute (ISSI) Team # 455 “Complex Systems Perspectives Pertaining to the Research of the Near-Earth Electromagnetic Environment.”  P.M. and M.P. are supported by the Czech Science Foundation, Project No. GA19-16066S and by the Czech Academy of Sciences, Praemium Academiae awarded to M. Paluš.
Organic matter decomposition and stabilization in Siberian tundra soils affected by thermokarst processes
Authors: Knoblauch Christian , Rethemeyer Janet , Mueller Carsten W. , Barsukov Pavel A. , Beer Christian
Published: March 2022

Thawing of permafrost like the wide spread  ice-rich Yedoma deposits in northern Siberia release large quantities of organic matter that may be decomposed to the greenhouse gases (GHG) CO2 and CH4. Since Yedoma deposits store up to 130 Pg of organic carbon (OC), the release of GHG from these thawing deposits might be of global relevance. The degradability of released organic matter is unclear. Current estimates on how fast the organic matter from thawing Yedoma may be transferred into CO2 range between 66% in one summer thaw season and 15% in 100 years. To reduce uncertainties about the degradability of Yedoma organic matter and to quantify the carbon pool that rapidly may be released a CO2, we incubated samples from different thermokarst affected soils and fractionated the organic matter by density fractionation. One set of soils originated from a vegetated thermokarst depression, the second set from a retrogressive thaw slump without vegetation. The total release of CO2 after 500 days at 4°C was significantly higher from soils of the vegetated thermokarst depression (4.0 ± 4.1% of OC) than from the retrogressive thaw slump (2.1 ± 0.9 % of OC), likely due to the input of fresh organic matter by the vegetation. Most of the organic carbon was bound to the mineral fraction (45 ± 24%), while the free particulate organic matter (fPOM) and the occluded organic matter (oPOM) contributed almost equally (26.8 ± 20.9% and 27.8 ± 12.0% of OC, respectively). The amount of carbon in the mineral fraction did not correlate with the CO2 formation, indicating stabilization of organic matter. Surprisingly, the oPOM fraction was stronger correlated with released CO2 than the fPOM fraction. However, the strongest correlation was found between CO2 production and the C/N ratio of total OC.
Decontamination and subsequent natural restoration processes impact on terrestrial systems in Niida River Catchment in Fukushima
Authors: Onda Yuichi , Bin Feng , Wakiyama Yoshifumi , Taniguchi Keisuke , Hashimoto Asahi , Zhang Yupan
Published: March 2022

For the Fukushima region in Japan, the large-scale decontamination in the catchments needed to require more attention because of their possible consequence in altering particulate Cs-137 flux from the terrestrial environment to the ocean. Here, combining the high-resolution satellite dataset and concurrent river monitoring results, we quantitively assess the impacts of land cover changes in large-area decontaminated regions on river suspended sediment (SS) and particulate Cs-137 dynamics during 2013-2018. We find that the decontaminated regions’ erodibility dramatically enhanced during the decontamination stage but rapidly declined in the subsequent natural-restoration stage. River SS dynamics show linear response to these land cover changes, where annual SS load (normalized by water discharge) at the end of decontamination increased by over 300% than pre-decontamination and decreased about 48% at the beginning of natural restoration. Fluctuations in particulate Cs-137 concentrations well reflect the process of sediment source alternation due to land cover changes in decontaminated regions. The “Fukushima decontamination experiment” can reveal the dramatic impact of decontamination-natural restoration processes, which highlights the need for quantitatively assessing human impacts on land use and resultant alternation in sediment transfer patterns in large scale catchments. 