An assessment of the sustainability and resilience of livelihoods within an Indonesian marine social-ecological system
Authors: Taruc Siham Afatta Kemal 
Published: October 2019

Indonesia is part of a marine biodiversity hotspot where millions of coastal communities rely on marine resources for food security and livelihoods. The overarching objective of this study is to explore policy interventions that might help small-scale fishing communities in Indonesia to avoid or escape from an undesirable livelihood state. Selayar Island in South Sulawesi was used as a case study where intensive fishing activity occurs at the proximity of marine reserves and presenting problems and responses that are difficult to interpret due to the lack of data for this region. This four-year study used qualitative and quantitative data collection methods and the principles of systems thinking to examine the social-ecological systems that drive trends in the condition of the marine resources and the associated livelihoods.This research is based on four main activities. First, problem-scoping focus group discussions (FGD, n=12) were held in 2015 in fishing-dominated villages (155 participants) to develop ‘rich pictures’ that help define the consensus and dimensions of the problem. Drawing on the perceived past trends of resources and activities, and problems that receive the greatest attention extracted from the rich pictures, the problem of interest was defined as ‘declining reef fisheries.’ Secondly, in separate months in 2015 and 2016, two series of problem mapping FGDs were held in eight of the fishing villages (~ 230 participants); these involved a group model building activity to capture the ‘mental information’ about the structure of the problematic system (the variables, the direction and polarity of influence between variables, the perceived past and future trends of these variables).Thirdly, qualitative modelling was done by constructing causal loop diagrams (CLD) to analyse feedback interactions between variables in the system by using the results of problem mapping and a supplementary interview. The CLD identified 26 feedback loops (16 reinforcing and 10 balancing); 13 state variables that normatively define whether the problem is weakening or increasing; and several archetypical systems structures, including ‘fixes that fail’, ‘shifting the burden’, ‘limits to success/growth’, and the ‘tragedy of the commons’. These four outcomes maintained a path-dependence archetype. The feedback generally suggests that a social-ecological trap (SET) is responsible for the ‘declining reef fisheries’ problem in Selayar. Hence, the system is normatively resilient in maintaining an undesirable livelihood state.Lastly, quantitative modelling was performed using computer-aided stock-and-flow modelling (SFM) for simulating the dynamics of the problem as conceptualised under the archetypes (the base case model). The SFM was constructed using the CLD as a seed structure to represent a generic model of small-scale fishery households (SSFHs) to simulate compound events associated with three types of SSFH that use boats with a smaller or larger motor and target three fish species groups originating from four habitats. The base case was defined by optimistic (ideal) estimates of ecological parameters mainly based on proxy information, as well as social parameters mainly based on recent household survey datasets and grey literature. The 30-year base case projections from the year 2016 suggest that, under business-as-usual conditions, Selayar’s SSFHs could become ‘locked’ in an undesirable livelihood regime: maintaining profitable fishing operations would become infeasible under declining resources, and result in sub-par household living standards.In summary, this study expands the available data and demonstrates that desirably resilient livelihood systems based on SSF are possible with a combination of policy interventions. Due to the degree of uncertainty in the dynamic model assumptions and parameters, one should exercise careful consideration when adopting the model output values (mainly the threshold points) when systems would become qualitatively different. This study will be useful to researchers/practitioners interested in developing the model to reflect conditions at finer spatial and temporal resolutions or further researching the system component or processes in order to fill the research gap, with particular reference to the Selayar Island context.