bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Dynamic Modelling of the Building Cycle: 2. Empirical Results
Authors: Barras R , Ferguson D
Published: October 2006

This paper is a presentation of the results of the third stage of a project designed to investigate the incidence and causes of postwar building cycles in the British economy. In the first stage spectral analysis was used to identify the main postwar cycles in each sector of building (industrial, commercial, and residential); the second stage involved the development of a theoretical framework suitable for dynamic modelling of these cycles; and the third stage was concerned with estimating the best time-series model for each cycle. The estimated models demonstrate the presence of both an endogenous supply-side mechanism creating major building cycles of up to nine years' duration, and the exogenous influence of business-cycle fluctuations within user and investment submarkets which are transmitted via the demand for property into short building cycles of four to five years duration. In addition, the models demonstrate how the building cycle in each sector may be influenced by other factors, such as development costs and property rents and values.
Accessibility and Intraurban Travel
Authors: Hanson S , Schwab M
Published: October 2006

This paper contains an examination of the fundamental assumption underlying the use of accessibility indicators: that an individual's travel behavior is related to his or her location vis-à-vis the distribution of potential activity sites. First, the conceptual and measurement issues surrounding accessibility and its relationship to travel are reviewed; then, an access measure for individuals is formulated. Using data from the Uppsala (Sweden) Household Travel Survey and controlling for sex, automobile availability, and employment status, the authors explore the relationship between both home- and work-based accessibility and five aspects of an individual's travel: mode use, trip frequencies and travel distances for discretionary purposes, trip complexity, travel in conjunction with the journey to work, and size of the activity space. From the results it can be seen that although all of these travel characteristics are related to accessibility to some degree, the travel–accessibility relationship is not as strong as deductive formulations have implied. High accessibility levels are associated with higher proportions of travel by nonmotorized means, lower levels of automobile use, reduced travel distances for certain discretionary trip purposes, and smaller individual activity spaces. Furthermore, the density of activity sites around the workplace affects the distances travelled by employed people for discretionary purposes. Overall, accessibility level has a greater impact on mode use and travel distance than it does on discretionary trip frequency. This result was unexpected in light of the strong trip frequency–accessibility relationship posited frequently in the literature.
Empty Dwellings: The Use of Rating Records in Identifying and Monitoring Vacant Private Housing in Britain
Authors: Smith R , Merrett S
Published: October 2006

In recent years there has been growing political concern with questions of effective stock utilization and the issue of empty housing. However, our knowledge of the scale and nature of the problem remains limited, particularly as regards the private sector. There is a dearth of reliable information on privately owned vacant property, which undermines local policy responses. One source of information which is available to local authorities are local rating records, which are often used as the basis for calculating a void rate. However, in this paper it is shown, by reference to recent work in one inner London borough, that such records are likely to provide a serious underestimate of the problem. In their present form, rating records, though potentially valuable, are a far from adequate data source for identifying and monitoring vacant private-sector dwellings.
Research Policy and Review 17. Some Applications of Supercomputers in Urban and Regional Analysis and Modelling
Authors: Openshaw S
Published: October 2006

In a recent article, Harris explored the use of supercomputers in urban and regional modelling. Some of the suggestions he made are qualified and some areas outlined where existing supercomputers could be used with immediate success rather than at some indefinite future date.
Technological and Demand Change in Energy Use: An Input—Output Analysis
Authors: Gowdy J M , Miller J L
Published: October 2006

In this study input–output tables for the US economy are used to examine the changing pattern of energy use from 1963 to 1977. A method is developed for isolating some of the reasons behind the observed changes. We examine the impact of four types of technological change and two types of demand change on energy use. Two types of technological change that are of particular importance in the time period considered are changes in energy mix and changes due to substitution among nonenergy inputs.
Research Policy and Review 20. The World Bank's Urban Transport Policy: Authorised Version, Revised Version and the Apocrypha
Authors: Rimmer P J
Published: October 2006

Since their incursion into urban transport policymaking in developing countries during the early 1970s, World Bank economists have played a pivotal role in shaping the research agenda. The publication of the World Bank's revised policy statement, therefore, provides an opportunity to gauge changes in its policy directions over the past decade and assess challenges to what is now the new orthodoxy. Initially, attention is focused on key elements in the World Bank's original policy statement with its unfashionable emphasis on short-term incremental planning, congestion pricing, deregulation, and privatisation. Then an examination is made of the salient features of the World Bank's restated policy: managing the demand for road use, improving efficiency by traffic management, public transport, and investment decisions. Finally, counterarguments to this restated policy are outlined. With this background we are in a position to assess the differing arguments and to make a plea for researchers to evaluate the predilection of World Bank economists for buses rather than rail rapid transit, and deregulation and privatisation instead of state control.
Generalized Log-Linear Models of Housing Choice
Authors: Deurloo M C , Dieleman F M , Clark W A V
Published: October 2006

By incorporating the structure of polytomous variables with ordered categories in the design matrix, nonstandard logit models are used to analyze housing choice. The detailed effects of income, age, and type of housing market on choice are examined. The additional information that is incorporated in the modeling leads to a more parsimonious representation of the data. The results confirm the central and substantial role of income; income effects are linear for owners but there are nonlinear effects for public and private renters. There are important age and region interaction effects on choice for households originally in the rental sector, and for former owners the value of the previous dwelling influences choice.
New Solutions to Old Problems: Housing Affordability and Access within Australia and New Zealand
Authors: Thorns D C
Published: October 2006

During the 1970s and 1980s the Australian and New Zealand economies have been passing through a period of restructuring. This has had important impacts upon the housing sector, leading to rises in house and land prices, in interest rates, and therefore in the costs of house purchase. Under these conditions a new agenda of housing issues has appeared concerning the affordability of housing and the continued access of modest and lower income households to the dominant form of tenure, owner-occupation. The 1980s saw the election of Labour governments committed to action in the area of housing. However, somewhat paradoxically, both in Australia and in New Zealand the policies pursued have been those of deregulation to produce a more competitive financial market. To preserve access to housing, new mortgage schemes have been designed. Two such schemes, the Capital Loan Scheme of Victoria and New Zealand's Equity Share Scheme are evaluated in the paper to show the nature of the adopted policy-response. The article is concluded with the demonstration of the limitations of such policy-based solutions to what are macroeconomic problems which are produced by moving towards an economic and social policy shaped by market monetarism.
Spatial Aspects of Health-Care Employment in Britain, 2: Current Policy Initiatives
Authors: Mohan J
Published: October 2006

In this paper I analyse the employment impact of current health-care policies in Britain. I draw on the typology developed by Massey and Meegan (1982) in which change in employment may be categorised into that caused by intensification, by rationalisation, and by technical change. I extend this typology to include restructuring, but argue that there are a number of qualitatively different applications of the notion of restructuring. It is argued that the present government have taken a number of measures to control the NHS (National Health Service) wages bill. These are outlined and it is shown that the major impact of these changes is qualitative, rather than quantitative: the key issue is less the impact on the total number of jobs available, but rather on the terms and conditions on which those jobs are offered.
Bulldozers in the Southern Part of Heaven: Defending Place against Rapid Growth. Part 2: The Alliance Strikes Back
Authors: Perkins H C
Published: October 2006

A qualitative social geographical study of a community group's reaction to rapid urban growth in a free-standing service class town, Chapel Hill, NC is reported. Members of the Chapel Hill Alliance of Neighborhoods had developed a strong sense of place in the town. Growth threatened elements of that sense of place. Alliance members thought the cause of the threat lay within the Town Council's administration of Chapel Hill's planning process. They worked to have that process changed, to make it more rational. Their reaction to growth as defense of place is described.
Distance Minimization in Downtown Pedestrian Shopping
Authors: Gärling T , Gärling E
Published: October 2006

Downtown pedestrian shopping was observed with the purpose of determining whether shoppers attempted to minimize walking distance, and, if so, whether, as has been suggested in previous research, they did that by successively choosing the closest locations. In downtown of an average-sized Swedish city (about 80000 residents), 150 shoppers were interviewed in a parking lot when they were coming back from shopping rounds. 69% of the shoppers visited more than one location, and 51% visited more than two locations. Of those who visited more than two different locations, 35 (69%) attempted to minimize walking distance. This was most frequently done by first choosing the location farthest away, then minimizing distance successively back to the parking lot. In this way shoppers probably attempted to minimize both the walking distance and the effort to carry goods. Some shoppers managed to choose routes which were shorter than if they had minimized distance successively. This finding was consistent with the results of laboratory studies demonstrating the role of maplike mental representations for distance-minimizing choices.
The Changing Geography of Japanese Foreign Direct Investment in Manufacturing Industry: A Global Perspective
Authors: Dicken P
Published: October 2006

The aim in this paper is to set Japanese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Europe (including the United Kingdom) into its broader global perspective. The geographical form of Japanese FDI is the outcome of a complex interaction between economic and political forces, both internal to Japan itself and also in its external trading environment. The dominant foci of Japanese FDI are North America, and East and South East Asia. Initially, Japanese manufacturing investment was heavily concentrated in neighbouring countries of Asia but the emphasis has shifted more recently to North America. However, the organisational structure of Japanese investment tends to be substantially different in these two world regions. In East and South East Asia, in particular, a complex intrafirm division of labour has developed, whereas in North America (and in Europe) the Japanese plants tend to be directly market-oriented and established primarily in response to trading frictions. The recent massive revaluation of the yen promises to generate further substantial changes in the global geography of Japanese FDI.
Technological Change and Spatial Transformation in an Information Economy: 2. The Influence of New Information Technology on the Urban System
Authors: Kutay A
Published: October 2006

A model of the urban system in the new era of information technology is developed by the introduction of new concepts and new variables to location theory. By use of the model one can generate different urban configurations and can bring differentiation to different locations, as opposed to traditional models which cannot explain the spatial structure of the contemporary urban system. It is shown that as concentrations get economically disadvantaged by congestion, information technology will facilitate a dispersal to the fringe and to rural areas.
Alternative Strategies for Selling Land to the Highest Bidder
Authors: Rogerson P A
Published: October 2006

In this paper the properties of several models of sequential bidding behavior are evaluated. In particular, the returns to a seller who maximizes the probability of selling to the highest bidder are compared with the returns of a rank minimization strategy which is more conservative. The comparison reveals that the rank minimization strategy will generally lead to shorter waiting times, higher expected selling prices, and lower probabilities of receiving the worst bids. Both of these objectives assume that sellers have no initial information pertaining to the distribution of bid prices. This is in sharp contrast to the more usual assumption of complete information about the parameters of the distribution. The losses associated with not having a priori information on the number of bidders are also evaluated. Under such circumstances, sellers may adopt more conservative strategies, with the consequent result of shorter waiting times and lower expected prices.
Space-Time Diaries and Travel Characteristics for Different Levels of Respondent Aggregation
Authors: Janelle D G , Goodchild M F , Klinkenberg B
Published: October 2006

Significant progress has been made in the analysis of space—time diary data. Drawing on the flexibility that such data provide, in this study the authors group respondents at five different levels of aggregation, and compare them according to their mean and standard deviation values for selected measures of travel behaviour. The measures, derived from the time—geography model, relate to the range and speed of daily movement and to the duration of activities. Wide variation in values were observed among subpopulations and role groups at each level of aggregation and, in general, these increased for higher levels of disaggregation. Graphic plots of the mean and standard deviation values permit evaluations of the effects of aggregation and provide a basis for identification of relationships between respondents' sociodemographic characteristics and their travel behaviour.
Transportation Supply and Economic Growth in a Multiregional System
Authors: Campisi D , La Bella A
Published: October 2006

This paper is directed to the problem of evaluating the development role of freight transportation in a dynamic multiregional input—output model. Under realistic structures of the technological, trade, and capital matrices, conditions for the existence of a balanced growth solution are given. Optimal investment policies in transportation network are also discussed. The corresponding problem of adding a minimum (weighted) set of transportation links to the graph associated with the model, so as to satisfy feasible connectivity conditions, is then formulated in mathematical programming terms. Upper and lower bounds on the number of links to be added are also set.
The Global Assembly-Operations of US Semiconductor Firms: A Geographical Analysis
Authors: Scott A J , Angel D P
Published: October 2006

The paper begins with a brief description of assembly processes in the semiconductor industry. The organizational structure and geography of the assembly operations of US semiconductor firms are then considered. Two issues in particular are examined, namely (a) the conditions under which vertical integration and disintegration of assembly tend to occur, and (b) the reasons why most semiconductor assembly is performed offshore. Lengthy empirical descriptions are offered of the assembly activities of US semiconductor firms in (a) the United States, (b) Western Europe, and (c) the world periphery and semiperiphery (above all, East and Southeast Asia). The paper concludes with a short critical comment on the theory of the new international division of labor.
The Housing Life-Cycle and the Transition from Renting to Owning a Home in the United States: A Multistate Analysis
Authors: Morrow-Jones H A
Published: October 2006

In this paper the concepts of the housing life-cycle and housing occupancy patterns in the United States are examined. The focus is on the move from renting to owning a home in the young adult years of life. Data from the national American Housing Survey, for the years 1974–1983, are combined with the techniques of multistate demography to produce housing life summary statistics and rates of movement by age. Parameterized curves are fitted to the empirical age-rate schedules and exogenous variables used to explain variation in the parameters related to young adults. Three simple, projection scenarios are also examined. The results indicate the importance of life-cycle factors and economic conditions in the shift from renting to owning a home.
Modelling Internal Migration in Kenya: An Econometric Analysis with Limited Data
Authors: Barber G M , Milne W J
Published: October 2006

In this paper the determinants of internal migration in Kenya are analyzed on the basis of a human capital model. Explanatory variables included in the specification are both economic (wage rates and employment rates) and noneconomic (for example, population density and educational attainment). Also incorporated are variables which reflect intervening opportunities. These variables are defined as distance-weighted averages of the variables in all of the districts in Kenya except the origin and destination districts. The econometric results show that destination variables are important determinants of internal migration, as is distance between the districts. Further, the variables for the intervening opportunities add significantly to the explanatory power of the model.
Modeling the Dynamics of Passenger Travel Demand by Using Structural Equations
Authors: Golob T F , Meurs H
Published: October 2006

Levels of demand over time are analyzed for five modes of passenger transportation. The data are for the modes: car driver, car passenger, train, bicycle, and public transit. These data are compiled from week-long travel diaries collected at six-month intervals from a nationwide panel in the Netherlands. Three types of empirical relationships are present in these panel data: (1) autocorrelative relationships, capturing temporal stability in demand for the same mode at different points in time; (2) contemporaneous relationships, capturing complementarity and competition among different modes at the same point in time; and (3) cross-lagged effects, potentially capturing systematic shifts in demand. Simultaneous equation systems are used to test the temporal stability of demand for each mode and the stationarity of the contemporaneous relationships among the modes. The dynamic structure both of trip rates and of travel times are modeled successfully according to several goodness-of-fit indices. The equation systems capture nonstationarity in the contemporaneous relationships, as well as important cross-lagged effects. These results quantify changes in the structure of demand over time in the Netherlands and are shown to be directly related to the event of a public transit fare increase.
The Role of Ownership Characteristics in the Industrial Development of Israel's Peripheral Towns
Authors: Razin E
Published: October 2006

A framework for studying the ownership structure of industry in Israel's development towns is outlined, putting special emphasis on defining factors influencing entrepreneurship among residents of these towns, and relating these factors to theories of entrepreneurship in space, and to those of entrepreneurship among immigrant groups. Factors affecting external ownership of single-plant firms and location decisions of multiplant firms are considered in light of theories of industrial organization. Firms of different types are shown to react differently to the incentives of the Israeli spatial economic policy. Thus, whereas residents of the development towns benefit little from these capital incentives, nonlocally owned single-plant firms are most attracted by them. However, externally owned small single-plant firms have been shown to suffer from the greatest instability and to form very few local linkages. Another policy failure was the inability to attract government-owned military industries to the development towns.
Bifurcation and Disaggregation in Lowry—Garin Derivative Models: Theory, Calibration, and Case Study
Authors: Yi P , Chan Y
Published: October 2006

The classic Lowry—Garin model is reexamined in light of advances in bifurcation theory and disaggregate model calibration techniques. A procedure for disaggregate calibration of the multipliers used in the economic-base component of the model is presented. Also given is an endogenous calibration procedure to include zonal constraints into the spatial interaction part of the unconstrained Lowry—Garin model. This is accomplished through the use of only two simple parameters which have important physical interpretations regarding the sensitivity of transportation improvements. Bifurcation conditions are then specified for the constrained model in both the aggregate and disaggregate cases. Through a case study of a medium-size city, the disaggregate calibration approach was found to produce better replication of the observed development pattern. Also the endogenous way of embedding zonal constraints in the two aforementioned parameters was found to be extremely efficient computationally. Most importantly, the analytical framework offers a transparent way of explaining urban development, including the prediction of precipitous developments, thus relieving much of the burden of traditional simulation approaches which tend to be cumbersome and analytically intractable.
Research Policy and Review 25. Modeling Land Use and Transportation: An Interpretive Review for Growth Areas
Authors: Berechman J , Small K A
Published: October 2006

Urban growth is taking new forms in recently urbanized or formerly suburban areas, characterized by low density, heavy dependence on automobile transportation, and multiple activity centers. In order to understand better such ‘contemporary urban areas’, researchers need land-use models that realistically capture the key features of such areas and that can handle detailed data sets.

We review the literature on large-scale land-use modeling with this objective in mind. Characterizing the known models along several dimensions describing purpose, conceptual basis, mathematical content, and level of detail, we select models that are representative of the range of approaches taken. Six of these are reviewed in detail, and four others are discussed more briefly.

We find that the existing literature forces one to choose between tractability and suitability for contemporary urban areas. The key omission in the tractable models is economies of agglomeration that would help explain the emergence of subcenters. Most tractable models also lack a dynamic structure suitable for handling rapid disequilibrium growth. Models that contain these two features are suitable for broad-brush computer simulation, but they cannot be calibrated with real disaggregated land-use data. This conclusion leads to some brief suggestions on directions for future work.
Telecommunications and the Reconstruction of Regional Comparative Advantage
Authors: Gillespie A , Williams H
Published: October 2006

The purpose in this paper is to illustrate the ways in which telecommunications—seen within an information economy perspective—is coming to assume a central status both in the process of economic development and in the redefinition of spatial relationships. This increasing centrality poses major challenges for the regulatory environments within which telecommunications-based innovations are being shaped. Further, a number of questions are raised by these developments concerning the changing nature of regional comparative advantage in an increasingly internationalised information economy.
Alternative Theories of Small-Firm Growth: A Critical Review
Authors: O'Farrell P N , Hitchens D M W N
Published: October 2006

This paper contains a review of alternative theories which have been developed in order to explain growth and change in the small manufacturing firm. Models of small-firm growth derived within the industrial economics literature are evaluated together with stage models of growth and stochastic models. Social and psychological perspectives on growth are reviewed and the spatial dimension is also considered. We argue that most previous theories of small-firm growth place too little emphasis upon the difficulties which small owner-managed firms have in meeting the competitive requirements of the marketplace.
Dynamics of Urban Systems: General Trends and Dutch Experiences
Authors: van den Berg L , van der Meer J
Published: October 2006

In this paper we present a general theory of urban development, which we then compare with the developments in the urban system of the Netherlands, for the years 1970 to 1986. We propose that urban dynamics are started by and are continually influenced by fundamental changes in technology, social values, demography, and politics. Each factor will be more significant in one stage of urban development than in others, and therefore a four stage cycle is produced: stage 1, industrialisation occurs; stage 2, the service sector and transport facilities grow; stage 3, there is a greater appreciation of the environment; stage 4, the society tends to an ‘information society’.

It appears that the Dutch urban system is in stage 3 of these developments: deconcentration of population peaked in the early 1970s and has since declined (under the influence of economic and demographic changes). Dynamics slowed under poor economic conditions, but by the late 1980s, deconcentration increased with the economic recovery. The Dutch system is progressing towards stage 4, with possible revitalisation of large towns by means of new policy.
Technical Changes and the Rate of Profit in the Canadian Textile, Knitting, and Clothing Industries
Authors: Webber M , Tonkin S
Published: October 2006

In this paper the histories of profitability and accumulation in the textile, knitting, and clothing industries of Canada are examined, over the period 1952–81. These histories are quite different from those of other industries and of Canadian manufacturing as a whole. In the clothing industry, capitalists have relied upon increasing rates of exploitation to maintain their high rates of profit, and there has been only limited technical change; in the textile industry, the technical composition of capital has risen, and its negative effects on profitability have been offset by changes in the turnover time and the rate of exploitation; the knitting industry lies between these two extremes.
On the Structuration of Multiactivity Task-Environments
Authors: Lundberg C G
Published: October 2006

A framework is built to explore the role of knowledge of spatial structure and spatiotemporal constraints on activity scheduling, spatial choice, and mobility. The task-environment is described by means of a simple mental map, and constraints expressed as linguistic variables. A human information-processing framework is employed as a model superstructure. The model integrates (additively) one bottom-up and three top-down impulses. The framework is applied and tested by introducing variations in individual percepts, task-commitment, constraint sets, and sojourn-times. The framework operationalizes the concepts of latent demand and spatial opportunity cost, and some aspects of Giddens's structuration theory.
Impact Attenuation in Nonconflict Situations: The Price Effects of a Nuisance Land-Use
Authors: Skaburskis A
Published: October 2006

In this paper the effect an inactive landfill site had on the sales price of surrounding houses is described. The spatial extent of the damage done by a nuisance site that was present at the time the houses were built is considered. Evidence is provided of the limited extent of the damage created by a nuisance land-use that did not generate negative publicity and conflict. Indirectly, the findings show that impacts that do not evoke rancor or present possible hazards are limited to a relatively small and easily definable zone. It should not, therefore, be difficult to implement compensation plans for the impacts of nuisance producing land-use sites. The implementation of such plans should help to ensure that land-use conflicts do not spread the cost of the nuisance beyond the area they affect directly.
A General Equilibrium Model of Interregional Monetary Flows
Authors: Moore C , Nagurney A
Published: October 2006

A model is presented to explain how a competitive equilibrium is achieved between multiple regions trading in multiple financial markets. The process of interregional arbitrage developed by Moore, Hill, and others over the past few years is combined with the work of Nagurney in spatial price equilibrium to provide an interesting extension of the original model. This is the first application of spatial equilibrium to monetary flows; an essential ingredient in the eventual development of a general model of spatial equilibrium.
Capital Switching and the Role of Ground Rent: 1 Theoretical Problems
Authors: King R J
Published: October 2006

The flow of both productive and speculative investment into housing relates to the state of capital accumulation in other economic sectors, as hypothesised in the ‘circuits of capital’ argument, but it also relates to the incentive to ‘switch’ investment into and out of housing, and therefore to expectations of ground rent and the (changing) social conditions that enable ground rent extraction. This is the first of three papers in which the relationships involved in these processes are explored. A series of theoretical problems arising from the argument are dealt with, principally relating to its seeming economic determinism and to an inappropriately narrow treatment of crisis and social change. In the subsequent papers, in this journal, these various ideas will be used to reflect on housing market and related social change in Melbourne from the 1930s to the 1980s.
Evolutionary Models of Urban Systems: An Application to the Belgian Provinces
Authors: Sanglier M , Allen P M
Published: October 2006

An application to the Belgian provinces of the EMUS (evolutionary models of urban systems) models is described. The theoretical basis of the approach is presented, as well as the description of the equations. The model was successfully calibrated with socioeconomic data for Belgium, 1970–84. A simple scenario is used to make a preliminary exploration of the future evolution of Belgium, but this will be dealt with much more fully elsewhere. The main object of this approach is to develop a learning tool for the socioeconomic system, which will suggest what is ‘normal’ and what is not, and hence what further refinements or changes are required.
An Axiomatic Approach to a Measure of Land-Use Mixture
Authors: Asami Y
Published: October 2006

A class of axioms which seem reasonable properties of a measure of land-use mixture is proposed. There are ten axioms: continuity, homogeneity, strict quasi-concavity, symmetry, area independence, ascent direction, exchangeability, reducibility, isotropy, and consistency. The proposed measure satisfying these axioms is represented by a function of the distance between a land-use ratio vector of a region in question and an average land-use ratio vector of other regions.
Store Location Planning: Its Role in Marketing Strategy
Authors: Collins A
Published: October 2006

The role of location strategy within the context of a multiple retailer's overall marketing strategy is examined. The author also looks at some of the techniques now being applied by retailers to provide the information needed to make better location decisions.
Advertising Assessment—Myth or Reality?
Authors: Beaumont C D , Geary K , Halliburton C , Clifford D , Rivers R
Published: October 2006

In this paper the topic of advertising assessment is revisited, given the widespread availability of low-cost microcomputer modelling developments. It is recognised that when regression analysis became popular in the 1970s with the advent of the mainframe computer, much hype and little marketing benefit ensued. It is argued that simply speeding up the old practices of the 1970s, which rightly fell from favour, will provide no benefit to the advertising industry. ‘What is new’, the ‘benefits’ of advertising assessment, and where it is applicable are described. It is suggested that not only does technology facilitate data analysis, but also, critically, modelling methodology itself has changed, with a greater ability to remain close to one's data. As a consequence, it is argued that improved advertising decisions can only be made when the other elements of the marketing mix are formally taken into account.

The methodology described in the paper has been developed and successfully applied in a number of sectors for different UK clients of Coopers and Lybrand, and Collett Dickenson and Pearce.
Reassessing the ‘Massachusetts Miracle’: Reindustrialization and Balanced Growth, or Convergence to ‘Manhattanization’?
Authors: Harrison B , Kluver J
Published: October 2006

Research suggests that conventional wisdom about the ‘miraculous’ reindustrialization of the regional economy of Massachusetts is much too simplistic. The decline in unemployment was as much the result of low average labor-force growth as it was of rapid job creation. Also Massachusetts has experienced increases in income and wage inequality, and there has been a dramatic slowdown in employment growth. The manufacturing sector is still deindustrializing and high-tech job growth has virtually ceased. Several complementary explanations are offered for these changes. First, a chronic labor shortage is constraining company expansion. Second the declining rate of growth of federal military procurement may particularly affect Massachusetts. Third, the state economy may have begun to converge on a new equilibrium structure. A shift–share analysis of employment changes during the periods 1973 – 79, 1979 – 84, and 1984 – 87 reveals that the state's competitive advantage has narrowed to a small number of business services and their associated real estate and construction activities.
How to Eliminate Certain Defects of the Potential Formula
Authors: Bröcker J
Published: October 2006

The potential formula, defined as a sum of regional ‘masses’ weighted by a decreasing function of distance, is a conventional indicator of accessibility in spatial econometrics. If applied to a system of discrete points in space, however, the standard potential formula with an exponential distance-friction does not convey the desired information in the case of sufficiently large distance-friction parameters. The reason for this defect is that the so-called eigenpotential is inappropriately defined by the standard formula. After reviewing the theoretical foundations of the potential index and advocating its derivation from stochastic choice theory, this paper proposes a modification of the potential formula. The basic idea is to handle the region to which the potential refers as a continuous space with equally distributed density of mass. This leads to an index with desirable limiting properties with respect to the distance-friction parameter.
Uncertainty, Spatial Proximity, and the Stability of Oligopoly Pricing
Authors: Kuenne R E
Published: October 2006

One of the most pervasive characteristics of mature oligopolistic industries is their reluctance to engage in price competition, and their channeling of competitive efforts into rivalry using advertising and other marketing costs as well as product differentiation. This leads to questions concerning the nature of the economic and social matrix within which such firms operate, and these questions in turn motivate the theorist to construct frameworks that yield such results. Spatial proximity has generally been accepted as an intensifier of price competition, but in many local oligopolistic markets it seems to act as an inhibitor of price competition. In this paper I attempt to study the role of uncertainty in explaining the ‘rivalrous consonance of interests’ which tends to keep prices above the competitive level in spatially concentrated markets. By using Weibull density functions to approximate subjective expectations of firms, I seek to cast light upon some of the factors that play a role in explaining this apparent paradox.
Compensation for Nature Conservation
Authors: Hodge I D
Published: October 2006

The approach adopted towards environmental management in the rural context is different from that in the urban context in that the first is generally based on voluntary controls accompanied by compensation, whereas the second is based on involuntary controls without compensation. The arguments relating to the payment of compensation are examined with the use of management agreements on Sites of Special Scientific Interest taken as an example. Criteria for determining whether or not compensation is paid may be based on arguments concerning efficiency or fairness. Standard Pareto measures of efficiency cannot determine whether or not compensation should be paid. The basis on which compensation is paid can create incentives, either for occupiers to take preemptive action and extinguish conservation values or for them to make claims for excess compensation. The payment of compensation by the state may provide an incentive for the efficient allocation of resources, but this will not be so if it is based on the financial cost rather than the opportunity cost. Any approach to compensation is based upon a reference point which indicates the level of environmental quality which is expected to be achieved by a land manager. But this point is not immutable and could shift towards an expectation of a higher level of environmental management. There is no single level of compensation which can simultaneously provide appropriate incentives both to the farmer and to the state. A possible resolution would be for the conservation agency to pay only the proportion of the compensation payment which represents the resource cost.
Patterns of Change in the Use of Energy in the New Zealand Economy
Authors: Cocklin C , Harte M , Lonergan S
Published: October 2006

The relationships between economic activity and energy use have been a matter of interest, in particular since the disruptions to energy markets in the 1970s. Input — Output models provide a convenient methodology by which to identify energy-use intensities of economic sectors at a disaggregate level. Moreover, if there exist at least two compatible tables displaced temporally, it is possible to identify changes in the energy intensity of economic activity through time. The use of energy in the New Zealand economy is estimated for each of the years 1971/72 and 1981/82 by means of Input — Output tables. Subsequent analysis is directed at identifying the relative contributions of changes in the technological coefficients and changes in the pattern of final demand to overall change in energy intensity over the ten-year period. Results suggest that the energy intensity of economic activity in New Zealand, unlike many other industrialised nations, has increased appreciably during the decade under consideration.
Research Policy and Review 31. From Branch Plants to Back Offices: Prospects for Rural Services Growth
Authors: Glasmeier A , Borchard G
Published: October 2006

Services are being touted as a major source of future rural economic development. Such prospects depend on the definition of services and the ability to identify and measure them accurately. Recent literature on services is reviewed and attempts made to answer the questions: what are services and can they be measured accurately; how have rural areas fared with recent growth in services; what are the determinants of rural services growth; is their growth self-generated or is it derivative of other forms of development; what regulates service industry location; and do these factors differ from those for other industries? Policy recommendations about service industry location are also reviewed.
Location, Management Strategy, and Workers' Pensions
Authors: Clark G L
Published: October 2006

This paper focuses upon the relationships between management strategy, location decisionmaking, and private pension liabilities. Analysis is based upon a recent suit in federal court brought by past employees of Continental Can Corporation against the corporation, alleging that it had deliberately relocated and restructured production at its Pittsburgh plant so as to illegally avoid early-retirement pension obligations. In narrative form I set out the essential details of the case and document in detail how the corporation reallocated production by plant location and the age and seniority of workers. It is suggested that this kind of locational-restructuring strategy is more common than often supposed and it is argued that corporations' pension obligations have fundamental, but little understood, implications for the process of restructuring American industry.
Variability and Location
Authors: Camacho A , Persky J
Published: October 2006

In a world of constant variation, locational patterns of firms and industries affect the cost of required adaptations. The efficiency of a locational decision is influenced by the extent and character of the variation with which a firm must cope. Adaptation to change is defined here in the context of the theory of the division of labor. Labor must be allocated both to tasks and to locations. A set of stylized examples for multiplant firms demonstrate that the advantages of a geographically decentralized pattern depend on the extent and frequency of change. Spatial variation in the pattern of change also has important effects.
External Takeover and Regional Linkage Adjustment: The Case of Scotch Whisky
Authors: Love J H
Published: October 2006

A model is developed for estimating the regional output and employment effects of linkage and final demand changes experienced by externally acquired companies. The model is illustrated using examples from the Scotch whisky industry. Systematically negative linkage effects of takeover are found, but the overall size of these effects on regional economic activity is invariably lower than the effect of takeover on final demand.
Restructuring, Workers' Pension Rights, and the Law
Authors: Clark G L
Published: October 2006

This paper extends analysis of the intersection between economic and geographical restructuring, unions, and corporate pension liabilities. The focus here is on Gavalik v Continental Can Co., a suit brought in federal district court alleging that the company had violated Section 510 of the Employee Retirement Income Security Act by laying off workers and relocating work at the company's Pittsburgh plant. After considering the role of unions in the growth and expansion of private pensions in the United States, and the current case in the context of litigation over the power of Section 510, the legal arguments made by the plaintiffs and defendants in federal courts are examined. Emphasized are issues relating to the motivations of the corporation, as well as the courts' determination of what are legal and illegal actions.
Australian Coal in the Global Context: A Paradox of Efficiency and Crisis
Authors: Gibson K D
Published: October 2006

In 1988 the Australian coal industry was both the most efficient in the world and the most competitive in the international market. At the same time it was in crisis. In this paper this paradox of efficiency and crisis is uncovered by an analysis which integrates long-term structural trends in coal production with an understanding of other determinations such as global market shifts and geopolitical pressures. A perspective on the flows of social labour, or value, within the coal industry is employed as a means of gaining insight into the relationship between long-run tendencies in production and other more contingent determinations.
Invisible Women? The Contribution of the Chicago School of Social Service Administration to Urban Analysis
Authors: Sibley D
Published: October 2006

The theoretical contributions to urban studies by Edith Abbott and other members of the School of Social Service Administration at the University of Chicago have not been recognised by urban geographers. Their research on social groups in the city and its relationship to Chicago sociology are discussed. Gender and politics appear to be critical in understanding the isolation of these women from the mainstream of urban social theory. Their case has more general relevance to the issue of the production of knowledge in academic institutions.
Modeling Elderly Mobility
Authors: Clark W A V , White K
Published: October 2006

A central component of understanding the changing distributions of the elderly is the nature of elderly migration and residential mobility. A modification of the housing disequilibrium model is adapted to examine flows at both national and local levels in the United States. Nationally, it is found that (per-capita) income and rental levels (which are associated with location within the city) are important influences on elderly intraurban mobility within the rental sector. The findings indicate that the motivations for elderly mobility are different from those for the general population. The elderly population are more clearly influenced by their financial situation whereas the general population are influenced by issues of dwelling size and quality. Specific contextual effects are uncovered in two case studies.
On the Voluntary Approach to Resolving Rural Conflict
Authors: Brotherton I
Published: October 2006

The so-called voluntary approach to resolving rural conflict seldom operates without some form of restraint on the farmer's freedom to act. This paper is an attempt to predict and compare the outcomes produced by voluntary arrangements embodying differing degrees of compulsion. It is suggested that outcomes favourable to the conservation authority would be found in about 40% of cases under wholly voluntary arrangements, in about 70% under grant forfeiture, and in about 90% with enforced delay and with control. Interestingly, the attitude of the conservation authority, both in general and in relation to particular cases, seems to have little impact on the extent to which it secures outcomes favourable to itself. Farmer attitudes are, however, important in determining outcomes. Their effect is greater under arrangements that give the conservation authority less control; and the farmers' concern to proceed with particular proposals has a greater effect on outcomes than does their general attitude to the authority.