‘Campo de altitude’: climate changes in time and space
Authors:   , Gorsani Rodrigo Gomes 
Published: February 2024

The Campos de Altitude are habitats restricted to a narrow eco-orographic strip within the Atlantic Forest domain, which is one of the world's biodiversity hotspots.Campos de Altitude are found along the mountain tops of southeastern and southern Brazil, particularly in the Mantiqueira and Mar Mountains ranges. They generally occur above 2000m in the Southeast region of Brazil, while in the southern regions, their elevation drops to around 1000m. Between 120,000 years before the present (ky BP) and 100 ky BP, the planet underwent its last glacial maximum (LGM), a period during which the average annual temperature was up to 10°C lower than today. This led to a prevalence of grassland vegetation across central Brazil, while forests were restricted to lowlands. Recent decades have seen significant anthropogenic global changes, resulting in various impacts on vegetation. These responses include shifts in geographic distribution, alterations in community composition and dominance, increased extinction risk for mountaintop species, and altitudinal migrations. Biological invasion is one anthropogenic impact that may be exacerbated by climate change, posing a significant threat to areas with high endemism. Beyond its rich biodiversity, Campos de Altitude also provide essential ecosystem services such as soil stabilization, maintenance of hydrological properties, and carbon storage. In this context, our objectives were to contribute to the understanding of climate change's impacts on the geographical distribution of Campos de Altitude in the Serra do Mar and Mantiqueira mountain ranges under future global climate change scenarios (Chapter 1). We also aimed to investigate the potential richness of invasive species in areas predicted to be suitable for Campos de Altitude under the same future scenarios (Chapter 2). Lastly, we explored the possible paleodistribution of Campos de Altitude during various climatic periods of the Quaternary to determine when and if a connection existed between Campos de Altitude and the Andean Mountains (Chapter 3). The future projections unmistakably indicate a significant decline in areas both climatically and topographically suitable for Campos de Altitude during the 21st century, with substantial losses in nearly all future scenarios. By 2050, the results indicate considerable losses in suitable area (>=95%), with total extinction in other scenarios by 2070. We also identified a potential richness of invasive species of 35 in the current time, and this number is expected to remain closer this in the higher elevation areas of Campos de Altitude in future scenarios. Furthermore, we found evidence of a potential historical connection between the Andean mountain range and Campos de Altitude through the Cerrado and the southern Amazonian forest approximately 18,000 years before the present. These findings illustrate that Campos de Altitude are a product of climatic changes during the Quaternary period, and at the same time, climate change poses the most significant threat to the future of Campos de Altitude. Keywords: High altitude grassland; Global climate change; Species distribution modelling; Biological Invasion; Quaternary