bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Improving the accuracy of migration age detail in multiple-area population forecasts
Authors: Schroeder Esther C. , Pittenger Donald B.
Published: March 2007

Population projections are often required for many geographical areas, and must be prepared with maximal computer and minimal analytical effort. At the same time, realistic age detail forecasts require a flexible means of treating age-specific net migration. This report presents a migration projection technique compatible with these constraints. A simplified version of Pittenger's model is used, where future migration patterns are automatically assigned from characteristics of historical patterns. A comparative test of age pattern accuracy for 1970-1980 indicates that this technique is superior to the commonly used plus-minus adjustment to historical rates.
Demographic responses and socioeconomic structure: Population processes in England and Wales in the nineteenth century
Authors: Friedlander Dov
Published: March 2007

This paper explores some theoretical and empirical aspects related to the theory of change and multiple response. The empirical analysis focuses on 600 relatively small and homogeneous geographical units of England and Wales for the period 1851–1910. These units are classified into six identifiable socioeconomic types and the analysis is made for each of them. Two interrelated issues are studied. First, a set of explanatory variables, connected either with strain or with factors relieving strain, is constructed. The effects of these explanatory variables on nuptiality, marital fertility, and migration responses are examined for each socioeconomic type, with respect to their significance, intensity, and direction. The patterns of these effects show general consistency with multiphasic response considerations for all socioeconomic types. A significant finding in this part is that migration affects very strongly the intensity of the marital fertility decline response. The second issue deals with theoretically expected patterns of interrelationships among responses in terms of substitutability and complementarity. The theoretical interrelationships are compared with the empirical for each socioeconomic type; and in general, consistency is established. Moreover, these interrelationships can be interpreted for each socioeconomic type in a way that appears to be consistent with multiphasic response considerations. An important finding in this part is that emigration and marital fertility decline are substitute responses in agricultural-based districts. Implications of the findings are discussed.
Limit cycle oscillations of the human population
Authors: Frauenthal James C. , Swick Kenneth E.
Published: March 2007

This paper investigates a mathematical model for the growth of an age-structured population. The model includes the idea (due to Easterlin) that fertility is affected by the size of the cohort in which an individual is born. It is important to note that the model investigated represents only a reasonable first step in the direction of reality from the unrealistic assumption that mortality and fertility do not change with passing time. It is shown that this general model can lead to self-excited, persistent oscillations (called limit cycles in mathematical parlance) of the birth trajectory of the population. Using data for the United States from the twentieth century, it is shown that variations in the number of births are consistent with the model discussed.
Sex of Previous Children and Intentions for Further Births in the United States, 1965–1976
Authors: Sloane Douglas M. , Lee Che-Fu
Published: March 2007

The research reported herein, using samples of women interviewed in the 1965 and 1970 National Fertility Studies and the 1976 National Survey of Family Growth, shows that the sex of women’s previous children has an effect on their subsequent fertility intentions which differs at each parity. The persistence of that effect among women with two children in particular argues strongly for including sex of previous children as an independent variable in models of fertility intentions, since the decline in family size norms makes factors which affect the decision to have (or not have) a third child increasingly important.
Evaluation of the Olsen Technique For Estimating the Fertility Response to Child Mortality
Authors: Trussell James , Olsen Randall
Published: March 2007

In a previous issue of this journal, Olsen proposed a technique for quantifying the fertility response to child mortality. To estimate the extent of child replacement, one needs data only on the number of children ever born and the number of child deaths for each woman. The technique involves first running a regression of the number of births on the number of deaths and then correcting the regression coefficient in order to obtain a consistent estimate of replacement. Here we evaluate the performance of the technique by seeing how well it works on a simulated set of reproductive histories for which we know the true extent of replacement. In passing, we derive an extension of the technique to handle the situation in which replacement strategies are heterogeneous. We conclude that the technique performs very well, especially in those cases where the stochastic structure of the data can be diagnosed.
Some New Techniques for Applying the Housing Unit Method of Local Population Estimation: Further Evidence
Authors: Smith Stanley K. , Lewis Bart B.
Published: March 2007

The housing unit method of population estimation is often characterized as being imprecise and having an upward bias. In an earlier paper we argued that the method itself cannot be properly characterized by a particular level of precision or direction of bias. Only specific techniques of applying the method can have such characteristics. In that paper we presented several new techniques for estimating the number of households and average number of persons per household (PPH). However, the testing of these new techniques was limited by the lack of census results against which the estimates could be compared. Complete census data on population, households, and PPH are now available and can be used to test alternate estimation techniques. In this paper we replicate the tests reported in our earlier paper using 1980 census data for Florida’s 67 counties. These tests provide further evidence that the new techniques produce more precise, less biased estimates than previously used techniques.
Mother–Child Relations and Adolescent Sexual Attitudes and Behavior
Authors: Weinstein Maxine , Thornton Arland
Published: March 2007

We hypothesize that children who are close to their parents are more likely to have attitudes and behavior that are consistent with their parents' values than children who are not close to their parents. Using data from a probability sample of 888 mother-child pairs of white women in the Detroit metropolitan area, we tested this hypothesis, using both mother's and child's attitudes toward premarital sexual intercourse and the child's report of whether he or she had engaged in premarital sexual intercourse. Unlike most previous work in this area, which has posited a direct association between the closeness of the mother-child relation and the child's attitudes and behavior, we found that the quality of the relation interacted with the mother's attitudes in its effects on the child's attitudes and behavior. Children with close relations with their mothers were more likely to hold attitudes and behave in a manner consistent with their mothers' own attitudes than children with more distant relations.
Pathways to Independent Living in Early Adulthood: Marriage, Semiautonomy, and Premarital Residential Independence
Authors: Goldscheider Frances K. , DaVanzo Julie
Published: March 2007

Data from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 are used to examine factors influencing young adults' departure from the parental home and the initial pathways taken, including leaving home for marriage, residential semi-autonomy (Semi), and premarital residential independence (PRI). Parents' education and continuing in school decrease the likelihood of leaving home via marriage and increase the likelihood of leaving home via Semi or PRI. All other factors considered affect all pathways out of the parental home in the same direction, but in differing magnitudes. The predominant influences on PRI are indicators of modern family values, whereas the predominant influences on leaving home for marriage are measures of resources, both those of the parents and those of the young adults.
National Estimates of Cohabitation
Authors: Bumpass Larry L. , Sweet James A.
Published: March 2007

Data from the 1987–1988 National Survey of Families and Households are used to provide national estimates of cohabitation trends and levels. The rapid increase since around 1970 is documented over both birth cohorts and marriage cohorts. Almost half of the persons in their early 30s and half of the recently married have cohabited. Changes in the proportion ever married are compared with changes in the proportion who have either married or cohabited. Much of the decline in marriage has been offset by increased living together without being married. The stability of unions of various types is compared. Cohabitations end very quickly in either marriage or disruption. About 60 percent of all first cohabitations result in marriage. Cohabiting unions and marriages preceded by cohabitation are much more likely to break up than are unions initiated by marriage. Multivariate analysis reveals higher rates of cohabitation among women, whites, persons who did not complete high school, and those from families who received welfare or who lived in a single-parent family while growing up.
A New Look at the Effect of Venereal Disease on Black Fertility: The Deep South in 1940
Authors: Tolnay Stewart E.
Published: March 2007

The effect of venereal disease on black fertility is estimated for six Deep South states around 1940. Several relevant control variables are introduced, including characteristics of the socioeconomic environment and measures of possible diffusion processes that might have affected the relationship between venereal disease and fertility. The objective is to identify as precisely as possible the net effect of venereal disease on black fertility. The analyses are based on 395 counties in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, and South Carolina. The results indicate that venereal disease was significantly related to black fertility, but that the relationship was considerably weaker than some have suggested (most notably, Wright and Pirie, 1984). Furthermore, the revised estimates suggest that venereal infections probably accounted for around 28 percent of the historical decline in black fertility between 1875–1880 and 1935–1940. I conclude that the black fertility transition was not unicausal and that explanations for the black experience should be sought among the same causative forces considered for other populations.
An Alternative Purging Method: Controlling the Composition-Dependent Interaction in an Analysis of Rates
Authors: Xie Yu
Published: March 2007

The purging method controlling for the composition-group interaction developed by Clogg and his associates has proven useful in demographic research. This article proposes an alternative method, partial CD purging, that controls the interaction between composition and the dependent variable. The purged rates from this new method are invariant to changes in the marginal distribution of composition, but those from the earlier purging method are not. Mathematical relationships between the proposed method and other techniques are also explored.
Influences on the Extent of Breast-Feeding: A Prospective Study in the PhiLippines
Authors: Stewart John F. , Popkin Barry M. , Guilkey David K. , Akin John S. , Adair Linda , Flieger Wilhelm
Published: March 2007

There has been much controversy about the impact of the health sector and the infant food industry on breast-feeding behavior. This study links causal factors to breast-feeding decisions, using a longitudinal survey of more than 3,000 Filipino mother-infant pairs. Most factors decreasing the likelihood that mothers will breast-feed seem to be related to family economics. Delivery in a private hospital, urban residence, high income, absence of spouse, and having worked for wages affect adversely the initiation of breast-feeding. Formula advertising and distribution of samples appear to have relatively little impact on feeding decisions.
Estimation of mortality from orphanhood in adulthood
Authors: Timæus Ian M.
Published: March 2007

This paper extends earlier research into methods for estimating adult mortality from information on the recent incidence of orphanhood. It presents a series of regression coefficients for estimating female and male mortality from synthetic cohort data on the subsequent orphanhood of those who had a living mother or father at exact age 20. Such information can be obtained either where questions about parental survival have been asked in two inquiries or by asking retrospectively about dates of orphanhood in a single survey. Although the method is somewhat sensitive to errors in the reporting of ages and dates, it is a promising source of up-to-date estimates of adult mortality that are free from bias due to the underreporting of the orphanhood of young children (“the adoption effect”).
The Effect of Imputation Procedures on First Birth Intervals: Evidence from Five African Fertility Surveys
Authors: Meekers Dominique
Published: March 2007

In most African societies there is little motivation to remember dates of demographic events with the level of precision required in demographic surveys. Consequently it is common that the large majority of survey respondents can provide only the calendar year of occurrence or their age at the time of the event. The World Fertility Survey Group decided to handle the problem of poor date reporting by using a computer program to impute the missing information. This article illustrates the effect of these imputation procedures on cross-national differentials in the proportion of premarital first births in Benin, Cameroon, Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana, and Nigeria. The analysis demonstrates that the exceptionally low proportion of premarital first births in Ghana is an artifact of the imputation procedures.
An Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Length of Forecast Horizon on Population Forecast Errors
Authors: Smith Stanley K. , Sincich Terry
Published: March 2007

Many studies have found that population forecast errors generally increase with the length of the forecast horizon, but none have examined this relationship in detail. Do errors grow linearly, exponentially, or in some other manner as the forecast horizon becomes longer? Does the error-horizon relationship differ by forecasting technique, launch year, size of place, or rate of growth? Do alternative measures of error make a difference? In this article we address these questions using two simple forecasting techniques and population data from 1900 to 1980 for states in the United States. We find that in most instances there is a linear or nearly linear relationship between forecast accuracy and the length of the forecast horizon, but no consistent relationship between bias and the length of the horizon. We believe that these results provide useful information regarding the nature of population forecast errors.
Socioeconomic Determinants of White and Black Males’ Life Expectancy Differentials, 1980
Authors: Potter Lloyd B.
Published: March 2007

Epidemiological transition theory suggests that two populations existing under disparate socioeconomic conditions would have different life expectancies as the result of cause-of-death differences. The effect of racial socioeconomic differentials on the total racial life expectancy differential are examined as they act through specific cause-of-death differentials. Results suggest that residential isolation of blacks has a strong effect on the total life expectancy differential as it acts through the racial homicide differential. The racial unemployment difference also has a strong effect on the total differential as it acts through the racial heart disease differential. Implications of the findings for reducing life expectancy differentials are discussed.
On the theory and measurement of the determinants of mortality
Authors: Boulier Bryan L. , Paqueo Vicente B.
Published: March 2007

This article develops a model of mortality that shows how biological, demographic, and environmental factors interact to affect an individual’s probability of dying. To illustrate the usefulness of the model, we derive from it (as special cases) the Brass system of model life tables and the proportional-hazard mortality model and apply a logit version of the model to analyze the determinants of child mortality in Sri Lanka.
On the decomposition of changes in expectation of life and differentials in life expectancy
Authors: Pollard J. H.
Published: March 2007

The projection of mortality rates requires inter alia close examination of the mortality experienceof a population overa long periodof time and will usually also involvethe analysis of mortality trends by cause of death. In two of the more important recent contributions, techniques were devised for explaining change in life expectancy in terms of mortality changes in particularage groups and by different causes of death. The approaches adopted by the authors differ, and the purpose of this article is to reconcile the two and tie the results in with those obtained by earlier writers. A new method for explaining the change in a life expectancy differential in terms of the observed changes in the mortality differentials and the observed change in overall mortality level is also described.
Infant mortality by Father’s occupation from the 1911 Census of England and Wales
Authors: Watterson Patricia A.
Published: March 2007

Infant mortality in England and Wales only began its secular decline at the beginning of this century, although mortality among those aged 1–4 began to decline earlier. The 1911 Census of Fertility provides the basis for estimates of infant mortality among occupational groups. A diagrammatic model of decline is elaborated, using fertility decline, social class, income, and urban/rural distribution as explanatory variables. Results of the analysis suggest that infant mortality decline, whose average value was 35 percent from a peak of 132 per 1,000, was increased by improvements in the urban environment and advanced by high or regular income, whereas fertility decline had only a small effect.
On Stable Population Theory With Immigration
Authors: Cerone Pietro
Published: March 2007

The paper extends stable population theory to include a constant stream of immigration. Previous attempts at tackling the problem have either restricted themselves to a below-replacement native population or else used an approach that does not produce the values of all of the parameters explicitly. It is shown that under a constant stream of immigration, the population will asymptotically tend toward a constant, linear, or exponential behavior, depending on whether the fertility behavior is below, equal to, or above replacement level. All of the parameters are determined in terms of the characteristics of the population at the origin.
The demography of the unrelated individual: 1900–1950
Authors: Ruggles Steven
Published: March 2007

This article is an analysis of the frequency and characteristics of unrelated individuals between 1900 and 1950. The much-heralded rise of the primary individual during the 20th century has been offset by a decline in the frequency of secondary individuals. The overall percentage of persons residing without family did not exceed turn-of-the-century levels until the 1970s. Using data from national micro data samples of the census for 1900, 1940, and 1950, the study applies decomposition techniques and life-course analysis to investigate these patterns. The results show that the decline of the secondary individual from 1900 to 1950 was largely a function of changing demographic composition, but the increase of primary individuals is linked to changing residential preferences.
Household organization and the interregional variation of out-migration rates
Authors: Odland John , Ellis Mark
Published: March 2007

Regional out-migration rates may depend on localized conditions, but the range of possibilities for migration decision making in multi person households includes processes in which the response to variations in localized conditions depends on household size. Analyses of migration rates for households indicate that larger households exhibit more extreme responses to variations in localized conditions and that this is an important source of variation in regional out-migration rates.
Infant mortality and socioeconomic development: Evidence from Malaysian household data
Authors: DaVanzo Julie
Published: March 2007

Household data from Malaysia are used to assess the roles of a number of mortality correlates in explaining the inverse relationship between the infant mortality rate (IMR) and socioeconomic development. Increases in mothers’ education and improvements in water and sanitation are the most important household-level changes that accompany regional and temporal development and contribute to the inverse relationship between the IMR and development. One concomitant of development—reduced breastfeeding—has kept the relationship from being even stronger. Continued prevalence of extended breastfeeding in the poorer states of Peninsular Malaysia and a narrowing of educational and sanitation differentials helped close the IMR gap between the richer and the poorer states.
Changing mortality patterns that led life expectancy in Japan to surpass Sweden’s: 1972–1982
Authors: Yanagishita Machiko , Guralnik Jack M.
Published: March 2007

Between 1972 and 1982, Japan caught up to and then surpassed Sweden as the country with the longest life expectancy. The contributions of different causes of death and age groups to life expectancy changes in males during this time period are examined in detail for these two countries. Even though cerebrovascular disease mortality rates remained lower in Sweden over the entire interval, the rapid gain made by Japan relative to Sweden for this cause of death was a prime factor in Japan’s ending the period with a higher life expectancy. Important contributions to life expectancy improvement in Japan came from declining mortality rates in those aged 55 and older.
The current differential in black and white life expectancy
Authors: Keith Verna M. , Smith David P.
Published: March 2007

The 1980 National Center for Health Statistics life tables for the U. S. black and white populations reveal a difference in life expectancy of 7 years between black and white males and 6 years between black and white females. Using cause-substituted life tables, we show that a number of causes of death contribute to the difference. The largest contributors are cardiovascular disease for both sexes and homicide and cancer for males.
Family size and children’s education in Thailand: Evidence from a national sample
Authors: Knodel John , Wongsith Malinee
Published: March 2007

Analysis of a large, nationally representative survey shows that family size exerts a substantial negative influence on the probability that a child will attend secondary school in Thailand. The primary mechanism underlying this effect is most likely the dilution of familial resources available per .child associated with larger numbers of children. The extent and the level of schooling at which this effect operates vary with the household level of wealth and with rural or urban residence. Because fertility decline is leading to a major increase in the proportion of children who come from small families, falling birth rates contribute to increasing educational attainment in Thailand.
Childhood events and circumstances influencing high school completion
Authors: Haveman Robert , Wolfe Barbara , Spaulding James
Published: March 2007

This paper is an empirical exploration of the effects of a variety of family and economic circumstances experienced during childhood on one indicator of success in young adulthood-high school completion. The estimates suggest that parental education and mother’s work are positive and significant determinants of high school completion, whereas growing up in a family with more children (who compete for resources), being persistently poor and on welfare, and moving one’s residence as a child have significant negative impacts on high school completion. The effects of some family stress and economic events differ depending on the age of the child when they occur. The results support the economic model of investment in children, as well as the welfare culture and socialization models.
Changes in the family status of elderly women in Korea
Authors: Lee Yean-Ju , Palloni Alberto
Published: March 2007

As a result of sharp declines in fertility and mortality, the aging of the Korean population has proceeded rapidly and is likely to continue in full force for some time. In societies such as Korea, where families traditionally have been the only efficient source of support for the elderly, an aging population poses a threat because families have fewer descendants available to care for increasing numbers of surviving elderly persons. The exact magnitude of the reduction in the supply of kin depends on details of the demographic trends and cannot be evaluated a priori. In this paper we use family-status life tables to assess the effects of changes in demographic processes on the family status of elderly women and to project trends in elderly women’s family status.
The living arrangements of unmarried elderly hispanic females
Authors: Burr Jeffrey A. , Mutchler Jan E.
Published: March 2007

In this paper we examine the influence of cultural preferences on living arrangements for a sample of older unmarried Hispanic and non-Hispanic white females. We develop a conceptual framework composed of three sets of factors: availability of kin, economic and health feasibility, and cultural desirability. Our analyses show that household living arrangements among Hispanic and non-Hispanic females are more similar when we control for these three sets of factors, and that cultural desirability factors are particularly important. The likelihood that elderly Hispanic females will reside in an institution is actually decreased, however, when we control for these factors; this finding suggests a strong reluctance among Hispanics to use formal long-term care facilities.
Adolescent Contraceptive Method Choices
Authors: Kahn Joan R. , Rindfuss Ronald R. , Guilkey David K.
Published: March 2007

This article analyzes determinants of contraceptive method choices among adolescent women in the United States. By using data from the 1982 National Survey of Family Growth, we examine factors that differentiate users of various methods early in the sexual careers of teenaged women. We find that patterns of method choice not only vary by race and region within the United States but also change over the teenager’s life course. In addition, among teenagers who did not use a method at first sex, the likelihood of adopting a method soon thereafter was low for both whites and blacks and was unaffected by social structural characteristics.
Multilevel Models of Fertility Determination in Four Southeast Asian Countries: 1970 and 1980
Authors: Hirschman Charles , Guest Philip
Published: March 2007

Using microdata from the 1970 and 1980 censuses, we specify and test multilevel models of fertility determination for four Southeast Asian societies—Indonesia, Peninsular Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Social context is indexed by provincial characteristics representing women’s status, the roles of children, and infant mortality. These contextual variables are hypothesized to have direct and indirect (through individual socioeconomic characteristics) effects on current fertility. The contextual variables account for a modest but significant share of individual variation in fertility and about one-half of the total between area variation in fertility. The women’s status contextual variables, particularly modern sector employment, have the largest and most consistent effect on lowered fertility. The results based on the other contextual variables provide mixed support for the initial hypotheses.
Infant Mortality by Cause of Death: Main and Interaction Effects
Authors: Eberstein Isaac W. , Nam Charles B. , Hummer Robert A.
Published: March 2007

We examine infant mortality among the 1980–1982 live birth cohorts in the state of Florida, specific to five categories of underlying cause of death: infections, perinatal conditions, delivery complications, congenital malformations, and sudden infant death syndrome. The gross and net effects of eight categorical and continuous independent variables, along with 11 first-order interactions, are examined with microlevel data through the use of multinomial logit regression. Findings suggest the complexity of variable effects by cause of death and indicate the simultaneous importance of biological and social factors. It is important that the pattern of interactions suggests an overall dependence of infant life chances on social circumstances. It also suggests that these effects are attenuated for some variables and causes of death at lower birth weights, probably due to advances in health care organization, access, and technology.
Black/White Differences in Women’s Reproductive-Related Health Status: Evidence From Vital Statistics
Authors: Geronimus Arline T. , Bound John
Published: March 2007

Maternal-age-specific neonatal mortality risk differs by race, with the mid-20s risk low for whites but not blacks. This may be partially due to worsening health for black relative to white women. We analyzed deaths to young women in the aggregate and classified by causes that are also pregnancy risk factors. Over the predominant childbearing ages, mortality increases for blacks exceeded those for whites, usually by at least 25%. These indicators that black/white health differences widen as women progress through young adulthood suggest that such discrepancies may play a role in the black/white infant mortality differential, which merits further research.
Occupations, migration, sex ratios, and nuptiality in nineteenth century English communities: A model of relationships
Authors: Friedlander Doy , Moshe Eliahu Ben
Published: March 2007

Two effects of occupational structure on nuptiality levels are examined: a direct functional effect related to the influence of socioeconomic characteristics on the feasibility and desirability of marriage, and an indirect structural effect related to nuptiality levels via sex selective migration patterns and population sex ratios. Our analysis shows that nuptiality levels in nineteenth century English and Welsh districts were responsive to occupational variation and that both direct and indirect effects were significant. Our results suggest that socioeconomic factors, often overlooked in favor of cultural explanation, must be considered in the analysis of nuptiality.
The effects of breastfeeding and pace of childbearing on mortality at early ages
Authors: Palloni Alberto , Tienda Marta
Published: March 2007

The effects of the pace of childbearing and breastfeeding practices on infant mortality have rarely been considered together. In this paper, we design and use a set of methodological tools to test a variety of hypotheses postulating the effects of breastfeeding and pace of childbearing on mortality in infancy and early childhood, the mechanisms through which those effects operate, and the contingencies that strengthen or weaken them. The strong effects of both length of breastfeeding and the pace of childbearing on the risks of child death suggest that neither of them exerts an impact on mortality totally mediated by the other. Social and demographic factors (such as age of child, education of mother, and region of residence) also condition the impact of breastfeeding and pace of childbearing on mortality.
New evidence on the fertility transition in Ireland 1880–1911
Authors: Gráda Cormac Ó
Published: March 2007

Recent analyses of Ireland’s marital fertility transition based on the Princeton Ig and the Stanford CPA measures are reassessed. Revised county estimates of Ig are subjected to regression analysis, and added insight into CPA is offered by comparing Ireland with Scotland and applying the measure to three specially constructed local data sets.
Gender and changing generational relations: Spouse choice in Indonesia
Authors: Malhotra Anju
Published: March 2007

Many Asian societies are undergoing a nuptiality transition that is not only tied integrally to other aspects of family organization, but is also often more complex than standard studies of female age at marriage can reveal. To comprehend some of this complexity, we focus on the patterns of spouse choice for both men and women in central Java. The extent of parental control over mate selection is examined for change over time, gender differences, and likely determinants, including family class, education, premarital work, and residence. It is argued that the current marriage transition in Indonesia reflects both gender and generational hierarchies in the Javanese family system. The analysis is conducted using a multinomiallogit model; in general, it yields results strongly supportive of the argument that the determinants of spouse selection differ by gender. The results also show that although there is a dramatic shift towards self-choice marriages, it is occurring within the context of historical and institutional factors specific to Javanese society.
Legal Status and the Stability of Coresidential Unions
Authors: Teachman Jay D. , Thomas Jeffrey , Paasch Kathleen
Published: March 2007

Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972, we examine the effect of the legal status of coresidential unions on the likelihood of dissolution. We find that legal unions are much more stable than nonlegal unions. In addition, current legal status is more important for predicting stability of union than is legal status at the initiation of the union. We also find that the effect of current legal status remains constant over various durations of unions and that legalizing a nonlegal union has little effect beyond that expected on the basis of a occupying a particular legal status.
The Use of Own-Child Checks to Determine Remarriage Status
Authors: Boozer Michael A. , Guinnane Timothy W.
Published: March 2007

The 1900 Federal Census of the United States did not ask currently-married women whether they had been married previously. This note uses the direct report on remarriage in the 1910 census to evaluate the performance of the “own-child checks” that several researchers have used with the 1900 census to substitute for direct information on remarriage. Accurate information on remarriage status is important for fertility and mortality estimation methods that rely on marital duration. The checks detect fewer than two-thirds of wives who report they are remarried. The use of these checks, however, does not introduce large amounts of error in an analysis of either fertility or mortality. The checks work better for white women than for black women. nt]mis|For comments we thank Paul David, Samuel Preston, Warren Sanderson, James Trussell, and seminar participants at the Office of Population Research, Princeton University. Two anonymous referees made detailed suggestions that substantially improved the paper. Address all correspondence to T.W. Guinnane.
Are Cohort Mortality Rates Autocorrelated?
Authors: Foster Andrew
Published: March 2007

In this paper the author examines the proposition that heterogeneity in individual frailty leads to autocorrelation in cohort mortality rates. A simple model is used to construct analytic expressions for the covariance of cohort mortality rates at different ages under a number of alternative assumptions about the stochastic process generating shocks in mortality. The model then is used to construct a procedure that uses correlations in cohort mortality rates to estimate the extent of heterogeneity in a population without relying on strong assumptions about the distribution of frailty or the shape of the underlying hazard. The procedure then is used to show that cohort mortality data from France are consistent with a generalized random-effects model in which frailty is gamma-distributed. nt]mis|Initial stages of this work were carried out at the University of California, Berkeley and were supported by a Population Council Graduate Fellowship. Additional support was provided by a grant from the University of Pennsylvania Research Foundation. I am indebted to Kenneth Wachter for suggesting that a formal analysis of this question might prove interesting and to John Wilmoth for making the French data available. I am grateful to Kenneth Wachter, Ronald Lee, John Wilmoth, George Alter, and Samuel Preston for their comments and suggestions. Any remaining errors are of course my own responsibility.
Spanish Surname and Anglo Infant Mortality: Differentials Over a Half-Century
Authors: Forbes Douglas , Frisbie W. Parker
Published: March 2007

Using a half-century of death records from San Antonio/Bexar County, Texas, we examine the timing and cause structure of Spanish surname and Anglo infant mortality. Our findings show that despite the substantial disparities between ethnic-specific infant mortality rates in the early years of the study, there have been consistent declines in overall, neonatal, and postneonatal mortality for both groups, as well as a major convergence of mortality rates between Spanish surname and Anglo infants. Further, we demonstrate that the convergence is of relatively recent origin and is due primarily to shifts in postneonatal mortality. Finally, we examine the transition reflected in the cause structure of ethnic-specific infant mortality and show that the convergence was largely the result of reductions in deaths from exogenous causes. Implications for research into the “epidemiologic paradox” are discussed. * The authors gratefully acknowledge the support provided for this research by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (Grants HD 22490 and 24643). We also wish to thank Starling G. Pullum for invaluable computing assistance, and Benjamin Bradshaw and Arlen Carey for helpful comments on earlier drafts.
Voting status life tables for the United States, 1968–1980
Authors: Land Kenneth C. , Hough George C. , McMillen Marilyn M.
Published: March 2007

Using current and retrospective voting data from the November Current Population Surveys of Presidential election years, this study modifies and applies demographic accounting and increment-decrement life table methods to construct voting status life tables for three recent election periods. The paper shows how to combine a continuously occurring process (mortality) with a process that is active only at discrete times (voting transitions) within a multistate life table. Empirical results pertain to the number of Presidential elections an individual is expected to vote in at ages 0 and 18, the typical life course pattern of transitions between voting and not voting statuses, sex and race differentials, changes across the three election periods, and cohort effects.
Age patterns of chinese marital fertility, 1950–1981
Authors: Lavely William R.
Published: March 2007

Coale and Trussell’s model of marital fertility is used to analyze data from China’s National One-per-Thousand Fertility Survey. Rural China experienced a regime of natural fertility until 1970, after which levels of fertility control rose with unprecedented speed and with an age pattern starkly dissimilar from that observed in other populations. Urban marital fertility was apparently under a modest level of deliberate control in the 1950s, with a sustained rise in control beginning in 1963. Natural fertility was low relative to other populations, with the urban level exceeding the rural.
An assessment of methods for estimating adult mortality from two sets of data on maternal orphanhood
Authors: Timæus Ian
Published: March 2007

Survey and census data about the survival of respondents’ mothers have been used widely for the estimation of adult mortality. Four methods are described that combine two sets of orphanhood data and yield estimates for the intersurvey period. They are applied to enquiries conducted in Peru, Kenya, and Malawi. This provides improved estimates of recent mortality and also clarifies the nature of the errors that affect the basic data. Age misreporting and other errors affect the information about older respondents and orphanhood of children is sometimes underreported. In contrast, data supplied by young adults seem plausible.
Birth Intervals and Childhood Mortality in Rural Bangladesh
Authors: Koenig Michael A. , Phillips James F. , Campbell Oona M. , D'Souza Stan
Published: March 2007

This study investigates the relationship between birth intervals and childhood mortality, using longitudinal data from rural Bangladesh known to be of exceptional accuracy and completeness. Results demonstrate significant but very distinctive effects of the previous and subsequent birth intervals on mortality, with the former concentrated in the neonatal period and the latter during early childhood. The impact of short birth intervals on mortality, however, is substantially less than that found in many previous studies of this issue, particularly for the previous birth interval. The findings are discussed in terms of the potential for family planning programs to contribute to improved child survival in settings such as Bangladesh.
Child care demand and labor supply of young mothers over time
Authors: Blau David M. , Robins Philip K.
Published: March 2007

This paper uses panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) to analyze jointly fertility, employment, and child care decisions of young women over time. As these young women age (from 21 to 25 years on average) they become increasingly likely to have young children, to be employed, and to use nonrelative forms of child care. A multivariate analysis reveals that rising wage rates and changes in household structure are important determinants of these upward trends. Further analysis reveals a considerable amount of movement each year among states defined by the presence of young children, employment, and child care arrangement. Overall the young women in the NLSY can be characterized as being in a volatile stage of their lives, when many economic and demographic factors are changing. They appear to respond to these changes by altering their labor supply and child care behavior.
Remarriage patterns among recent widows and widowers
Authors: Smith Ken R. , Zick Cathleen D. , Duncan Greg J.
Published: March 2007

Remarriage is one of the most important determinants of physical and economic well-being among the widowed. The goal of this study is to estimate how hazard rates for remarriage vary among widows and widowers on the basis of both observable and unobservable characteristics. The remarriage estimates rely on nationally representative samples of widows and widowers from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. Continuous-time hazard rate regressions indicate strong age and duration dependence effects for middle-aged widows and widowers and for older widowers. Among middle-aged widows, blacks and those with dependent children in the home have lower rates of remarriage. For middle-aged widowers, living in urbanized areas limits the prospects of remarriage. For older widowers, education and, to some extent, economic status appear to have positive effects on the remarriage rates. Overall, age and time since widowhood have the strongest and most consistent effects on remarriage rates for different widowed groups.
Correlations between frequencies of kin
Authors: Pullum Thomas W. , Wolf Douglas A.
Published: March 2007

Recent years have seen the development of formal and microsimulation models of the structure and dynamics of kin networks. These models generally assume uncorrelated fertility within and across generations. Several sets of real data, however, show positive correlations between the frequencies of various categories of kin. This paper uses formal models to calculate the correlations that will exist between certain categories of kin even if mothers and daughters have independent fertility. Mechanisms by which fertility might be transmitted from mothers to their daughters are considered and the implications for kin correlations are evaluated.
Language usage and fertility in the Mexican-origin population of the United States
Authors: Swicegood Gray , Bean Frank D. , Stephen Elizabeth Hervey , Opitz Wolfgang
Published: March 2007

This article examines the effects of English proficiency and female education on cumulative and recent fertility within the Mexican-origin population in the U.S. To ascertain whether the cultural or the human capital aspects of linguistic variables have the greater salience for fertility behavior, fertility patterns of bilingual women are compared with those of monolingual women speaking English or Spanish. Using the 1980 U.S. Census 5 percent Public Use Micro data Sample for ever-married Mexican-origin women aged 15–44, we find that for almost all age cohorts, thee effects of English proficiency are negative and increase with rising education. The strength of the interaction is greater in younger age groups. Greater English proficiency is also associated with a more negative impact of education for native- than foreign-born women. Overall, the influence of “opportunity cost,” asopposed to cultural factors, is more important in shaping the fertility behavior of these women.
Racial differences in contraceptive choice: Complexity and implications
Authors: Stephen Elizabeth Hervey , Rindfuss Ronald R. , Bean Frank D.
Published: March 2007

Previous research has failed to generate consensus about why black fertility has persistently exceeded that of whites in the United States. In an effort to shed light on this question, this article examines black/white differences in sociodemographic factors affecting contraceptive choice. Using data from the 1976 and 1982 National Surveys of Family Growth, we find a complex pattern of black/white differences. Not only does contraceptive choice vary by race, but the effects of such variables as age, marital status, and education also differ between blacks and whites. For example, compared with whites, black married women avoid coital methods, and compared with blacks, white women shift contraceptive behavior more as they change marital status. The complex nature of the racial differences in contraceptive choice are interpreted as reflecting differences in marriage patterns and trends.
American Indian household structure and income
Authors: Sandefur Gary D. , Sakamoto Arthur
Published: March 2007

We use the 1980 Public-Use Microdata Sample to consider the relationship between household structure and economic well-being among American Indians. Wefocus on the total U.S. Indian population and on there sidents of 19 “Indian states” where there has been relatively little growth in the Indian population by means ofchanges in racial self-identification. Using Sweet’s (1984) scheme of household types, we find that the prevalence among Indians of female-headed households with children is intermediate between that among blacks and whites, but the prevalence of couple-headed households with children is highest among Indians. Racial differences in the distribution of household types and differences in average household size are important determinants of black-white and Indian-white differences in average household income.