bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
The Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Is it Testable?
Authors: SHANKEN JAY
Published: April 2012

This paper challenges the view that the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) is inherently more susceptible to empirical verification than the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). The usual formulation of the testable implications of the APT is shown to be inadequate, as it precludes the very expected return differentials which the theory attempts to explain. A recent competitive‐equilibrium extension of the APT may be testable in principle. In order to implement such a test, however, observation of the return on the true market portfolio appears to be necessary.
Difference Systems in Financial Futures Markets
Authors: KILCOLLIN THOMAS ERIC
Published: April 2012

Many financial futures markets allow substitutions for the par grade of security at delivery. Substitutes are deliverable at premiums or discounts—“differences” in commodities parlance—to the futures price. The rule that establishes these differences is called a difference system. This paper characterizes financial futures market equilibrium with yield‐based difference systems and investigates particular systems in use. The major finding is that currently used difference systems effectively limit deliverable supply in the futures markets and lead to futures prices which understate the cash market price of the par security.
Tests of Two Models for Valuing Call Options on Stocks with Dividends
Authors: STERK WILLIAM
Published: April 2012

Roll has recently formulated an option pricing model which allows dividend payments on the underlying stock. This paper compares the performance of the exact Roll model with a modified, but inexact, Black‐Scholes model. The results indicate that the Roll model prices are significantly closer to actual market prices.
A Disequilibrium Model of Savings and Loan Associations
Authors: SMITH GARY , BRAINARD WILLIAM
Published: April 2012

This paper discusses the consistent specification and estimation of asset demand equations in a disequilibrium model of financial markets. We estimate the effective asset demands of savings and loan associations, allowing for rationing in the mortgage market. These disequilibrium estimates are not very different from the estimates of notional demands with no rationing assumed. Savings and loans seem to be least affected by excess demand situations in that they are apparently not reluctant to raise mortgage rates and/or to ration borrowers.
The Dynamics of Dealer Markets Under Competition
Authors: HO THOMAS S. Y. , STOLL HANS R.
Published: April 2012

The behavior of competing dealers in securities markets is analyzed. Securities are characterized by stochastic returns and stochastic transactions. Reservation bid and ask prices of dealers are derived under alternative assumptions about the degree to which transactions are correlated across stocks at a given time and over time in a given stock. The conditions for interdealer trading are specified, and the equilibrium distribution of dealer inventories and the equilibrium market spread are derived. Implications for the structure of securities markets are examined.
The Postwar Stability of the Fisher Effect
Authors: PEEK JOE , WILCOX JAMES A.
Published: April 2012

Most research concerning the Fisher relationship has concentrated on the magnitude and significance of the response of nominal interest rates to anticipated inflation. Recently, attention has shifted to the stability of that response. According to previous estimates, the impact of anticipated inflation on interest rates varies substantially over time. By extending a standard model to include tax and aggregate supply shock effects, we are able to reduce such instability considerably. Our results also reveal that increased foreign demand for bonds lowers the interest rate.
A Theoretical Model for Valuing Preferred Stock
Authors: EMANUEL DAVID
Published: April 2012

This paper develops a model of preferred stock value which includes the possibility of dividends on the preferred stock being omitted. The analytical framework used is based on the option‐hedging methodology of Black and Scholes. Precise valuation formulae are obtained for cumulative and noncumulative preferred stock in a variety of contexts. The values obtained are quite different from those for either riskless or risky perpetual bonds, which have previously been proposed as being similar to preferred stock.
Tax Reform and Ex‐Dividend Day Behavior
Authors: LAKONISHOK JOSEF , VERMAELEN THEO
Published: April 2012

This paper investigates the effect of a major Canadian tax reform on the ex‐dividend day behavior of companies on the Toronto Stock Exchange. The results are inconsistent with the hypothesis that price changes on ex‐dividend days reflect the relative taxation of dividends and capital gains for the “representative” investor, but are consistent with the hypothesis that ex‐dividend day price behavior reflects short‐term trading activities.
Risk Aversion Revisited
Authors: MORIN ROGER‐A. , SUAREZ A. FERNANDEZ
Published: April 2012

In order to supply additional empirical evidence of the effect of wealth on relative risk aversion, this study investigates households' demand for risky assets, using analysis of covariance techniques applied to the asset holdings of Canadian individual households. The extent and pattern of life‐cycle effects are also examined. Results generally point to decreasing relative risk aversion when housing is either excluded from the definition of wealth or treated as a riskless asset. The investor's life‐cycle plays a prominent role in portfolio selection behavior, with risk aversion increasing uniformly with age. Tax differentials do not seem to be an important element in investment decisions with respect to risk. When the sample and wealth definitions are censored in order to approximate those of previous empirical studies, their findings on relative risk aversion are generally corroborated.
Taxes and the Pricing of Stock Index Futures
Authors: CORNELL BRADFORD , FRENCH KENNETH R.
Published: April 2012

Stock index futures prices are generally below the level predicted by simple arbitrage models. This paper suggests that the discrepancy between the actual and predicted prices is caused by taxes. Capital gains and losses are not taxed until they are realized. As Constantinides demonstrates in a recent paper, this gives stockholders a valuable timing option. If the stock price drops, the investor can pass part of the loss on to the government by selling the stock. On the other hand, if the stock price rises, the investor can postpone the tax by not realizing the gain. Since this option is not available to stock index futures traders, the futures prices will be lower than standard no‐tax models predict.
On the Class of Elliptical Distributions and their Applications to the Theory of Portfolio Choice
Authors: OWEN JOEL , RABINOVITCH RAMON
Published: April 2012

It is shown that the class of elliptical distributions extend the Tobin [14] separation theorem, Bawa's [2] rules of ordering uncertain prospects, Ross's [12] mutual fund separation theorems, and the results of the CAPM to non‐normal distributions, which are not necessarily stable. Further, the mean‐covariance matrix framework is generalized to a mean‐characteristic matrix framework in which the characteristic matrix is the basis for a spread or risk measure, and a generalized equilibrium pricing equation is arrived at. The implications to empirical testing of the CAPM and modeling the empirical distribution of speculative prices are discussed.
The Stability of UK Risk Measures and The Problem of Thin Trading
Authors: DIMSON E. , MARSH P. R.
Published: April 2012

This paper examines the problems of estimating risk measures and their stability in thin markets. It shows analytically that conventional approaches used in previous studies can lead to serious overestimates of the stability of risk measures when shares are subject to thin trading. It then demonstrates, using UK data, that this is, in fact, a serious practical problem, and that the resultant biases are of precisely the form predicted. Finally, the paper presents reliable evidence on the stability of UK risk measures by using an estimation method designed to avoid thin trading bias. Using this approach, risk measures are found to be as stable in the UK as they are in the USA.
Controlling Monetary Aggregates: The Discount Window
Authors: SANTOMERO ANTHONY M.
Published: April 2012

This paper argues that current discount window policy, coupled with non‐borrowed reserve targeting of the Federal Reserve, makes the quantity of high‐powered money endogenous. Examination of the advisability of this procedure in a stochastic environment is conducted using a general equilibrium financial model. It is concluded that the current policy reduces the destabilizing effects of shifts between various depository financial assets, but increases the effect of other asset portfolio shifts and aggregate supply disturbances. These results are consistent with the work of Poole inasmuch as the current debate over discount policy is a repackaging of the debate over interest rate or aggregates control for monetary policy.
Lending Policies of Financial Intermediaries Facing Credit and Funding Risk
Authors: DESHMUKH SUDHAKAR D. , GREENBAUM STUART I. , KANATAS GEORGE
Published: April 2012

This paper compares the optimal lending decisions of financial intermediaries that differ in their risk exposure. All intermediaries are assumed to face a loan demand described by a random applicant arrival process with each applicant offering a unique risk‐adjusted rate of return; loan demand is therefore uncertain in both quantity and quality. The intermediaries differ in terms of their risk exposure because of disparate funding practices. Intermediaries functioning as brokers minimize their exposure by borrowing funds only as demand is realized, whereas those behaving as asset‐transformers borrow in advance of realizing loan demand, thereby maintaining a loanable funds inventory and sustaining the related exposure. The optimal sequential lending policy is shown to involve setting a credit standard that becomes stricter with the length of the intermediary's planning horizon and the volume of loans outstanding. Most importantly, it is shown that brokers adopt stricter credit standards than asset‐transformers and therby reduce their volume of lending.
Optimality of the Disclosure of Private Information in a Production‐Exchange Economy
Authors: TRUEMAN BRETT
Published: April 2012

This study provides an analysis of the effects on individual welfare of information revelation in a production‐exchange economy. It is shown that the total effect of information revelation on an agent's utility level may be decomposed into three elements: a price effect, a shareholding effect, and a production effect. Through this decomposition, it is demonstrated that, although a Pareto improvement need not result from information revelation, there are perspectives from which the release can be considered beneficial.
Economic Evaluation of Voting Power of Common Stock
Authors: LEVY HAIM
Published: April 2012

This paper presents an economic evaluation of common stock voting rights. An index of relative voting rights inequality for different classes of stock of the same corporation is constructed and the empirical relationship between the market premium on a superior‐voting stock and the voting inequality index is examined. In only three out of the 25 cases could investors have arbitraged between the two classes of stock, although in one case the arbitrage opportunity persisted for several months.
The Impact of Capital Structure Change on Firm Value: Some Estimates
Authors: MASULIS RONALD W.
Published: April 2012

This study develops a model based on current corporate finance theories which explains stock returns associated with the announcement of issuer exchange offers. The major independent variables are changes in leverage multiplied by senior security claims outstanding and changes in debt tax shields. Parameter estimates are statistically significant and consistent in sign and relative magnitude with model predictions. Overall, 55 percent of the variance in stock announcement period returns is explained. The evidence is consistent with tax‐based theories of optimal capital structure, a positive debt level information effect, and leverage‐induced wealth transfers across security classes.
Interest Rate Uncertainty and the Financial Intermediary's Choice of Exposure
Authors: DESHMUKH SUDHAKAR D. , GREENBAUM STUART I. , KANATAS GEORGE
Published: April 2012

The financial intermediary's choice of operating as a broker with minimal risk exposure or as an asset‐transformer with interest rate risk is modeled as a funds inventory decision made prior to the resolution of uncertainty regarding the borrowing or lending interest rates. It is shown that an increase in the interest rate uncertainty leads the intermediary to reduce its exposure, thereby offering decreased asset‐transformation and more brokerage services. However, a stochastic increase in the interest rates leads to greater asset‐transformation and less brokerage services.
Spot and Futures Prices and the Law of One Price
Authors: PROTOPAPADAKIS ARIS , STOLL HANS R.
Published: April 2012

The law of one price (LOP) is tested for narrowly defined commodities traded in futures markets in different countries during the period 1973–80. Although the LOP holds as an average tendency for most of the commodities, there are instances of large riskless arbitrage returns (before transactions costs). Deviations from the LOP tend to be commodity specific rather than due to a common external factor and they tend to be smaller the longer the maturity of the futures contract.
Information Effects on the Bid‐Ask Spread
Authors: COPELAND THOMAS E. , GALAI DAN
Published: April 2012

An individual who chooses to serve as a market‐maker is assumed to optimize his position by setting a bid‐ask spread which maximizes the difference between expected revenues received from liquidity‐motivated traders and expected losses to information‐motivated traders. By characterizing the cost of supplying quotes, as writing a put and a call option to an information‐motivated trader, it is shown that the bid‐ask spread is a positive function of the price level and return variance, a negative function of measures of market activity, depth, and continuity, and negatively correlated with the degree of competition. Thus, the theory of information effects on the bid‐ask spread proposed in this paper is consistent with the empirical literature.
Regulation and the Determination of Bank Capital Changes: A Note
Authors: DIETRICH J. KIMBALL , JAMES CHRISTOPHER
Published: April 2012

The effectiveness of bank capital adequacy requirements is examined in this paper. Using empirical tests similar to those employed by Peltzman and Mingo, no significant relationship is found between changes in bank capital and the capital standards imposed by regulators. The findings conflict with those of previous studies. The conflict in findings, it is argued, results from the failure of previous studies to account for the effect of binding deposit rate ceilings.
On Valuing American Call Options with the Black‐Scholes European Formula
Authors: GESKE ROBERT , ROLL RICHARD
Published: April 2012

Empirical papers on option pricing have uncovered systematic differences between market prices and values produced by the Black‐Scholes European formula. Such “biases” have been found related to the exercise price, the time to maturity, and the variance. We argue here that the American option variant of the Black‐Scholes formula has the potential to explain the first two biases and may partly explain the third. It can also be used to understand the empirical finding that the striking price bias reverses itself in different sample periods. The expected form of the striking price bias is explained in detail and is shown to be closely related to past empirical findings.
Investment Management and Risk Sharing with Multiple Managers
Authors: BARRY CHRISTOPHER B. , STARKS LAURA T.
Published: April 2012

This paper addresses the investor's decision to employ multiple managers for the management of investment funds. Under conditions such that specialization of managers and diversification among managers are not motives for the use of multiple managers, the paper shows that risk sharing considerations may be sufficient. A model is developed in which the decision to use multiple managers is explicitly treated, and conditions are studied such that an increase or decrease in the number of managers would be desirable. Under some conditions, a multiple manager solution is preferred over a single manager solution.
The Harmonic Mean and Other Necessary Conditions for Stochastic Dominance
Authors: JEAN WILLIAM H.
Published: April 2012

In this paper a systematic procedure is developed to determine necessary conditions for all degrees of stochastic dominance. The previously known necessary conditions are specified as to which degrees of dominance they belong, and two new necessary conditions, a ranking of harmonic means and a ranking of algebraic combinations of the first three moments, are derived.
Consumption Betas and Backwardation in Commodity Markets
Authors: HAZUKA THOMAS B.
Published: April 2012

This paper examines the relationship between commodity consumption betas and realized commodity futures contract risk premiums. A linear relationship between risk premiums and consumption betas is developed based on a consumption oriented CAPM. The parameters of this linear model are estimated using fourteen commodities.
Anomalies in Security Returns and the Specification of the Market Model
Authors: BROWN STEPHEN J. , BARRY CHRISTOPHER B.
Published: April 2012

We examine the hypothesis originally advanced by Roll[12]that observed anomalies in excess returns can be explained by misspecification of the market model used to estimate systematic risk. We find substantial misspecifications in the model systematically related to size and period of listing of the securities in question. There is some evidence that these misspecifications are associated with systemic biases in measured betas used to construct excess returns.
A Further Investigation of the Weekend Effect in Stock Returns
Authors: KEIM DONALD B. , STAMBAUGH ROBERT F.
Published: April 2012

This study uses a longer time period and additional stocks to further investigate the weekend effect. We find consistently negative Monday returns (1) for the S & P Composite as early as 1928, (2) for Exchange‐traded stocks of firms of all sizes, and (3) for actively traded over‐the‐counter (OTC) stocks. The OTC results are based on bid prices and therefore appear to reject specialist‐related explanations. For the 30 individual stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Index, the average correlation between Friday and Monday returns is positive and the highest of all pairs of successive days. The latter finding is inconsistent with fairly general measurement‐error explanations.
External Financing and Liquidity
Authors: HUBERMAN GUR
Published: April 2012

We explain the observed negative relation between market value of firms and their fund raising activities. Ours is not a signalling model. The firm's objective is to maximize the present value of its income. Considerations of cash availability (liquidity) and unfolding of uncertainty drive our model. Income from operations is an important source of liquidity. Low earnings are associated with low liquidity. Whether earnings are low or not is known to some extent in advance of the realization itself. External financing is pursued in anticipation of the earnings' realization in order to maintain a desired level of liquidity. Therefore, anticipated low earnings are associated with a high level of external financing. Of course, an anticipation of low earnings is also accompanied by a decrease in the firm's value. The empiricist who looks at time series of a firm's value and of its dividend/external financing announcements would then record positive correlation between value and cash distributions and negative correlation between value and external financing.
Models of Stock Returns—A Comparison
Authors: KON STANLEY J.
Published: April 2012

In this paper a discrete mixture of normal distributions is proposed to explain the observed significant kurtosis (fat tails) and significant positive skewness in the distribution of daily rates of returns for a sample of common stocks and indexes. Stationarity tests on the parameter estimates of this discrete mixture of normal distributions model revealed significant differences in the mean estimates that can explain the observed skewness and significant differences in the variance estimates that can explain the observed kurtosis. An alternative explanation for the observed fat tails is the symmetric student model. The result of a comparison between the models is that the discrete mixture of normal distributions model has substantially more descriptive validity than the student model.
Futures Markets and Informational Efficiency: A Laboratory Examination
Authors: FORSYTHE ROBERT , PALFREY THOMAS R. , PLOTT CHARLES R.
Published: April 2012

Through the use of laboratory market methodology, the effect of a futures market on the time path of asset prices is studied and competing models of asset pricing are analyzed. With replication of market conditions, the predictions of a rational expectations equilibrium model are relatively accurate whether or not futures markets are present. However, the presence of futures markets increases the speed with which an efficient equilibrium is achieved. While this more rapid adjustment can increase the variance of spot market prices as they move to equilibrium, this increased variance reflects efficiency gains due to better information.
Money Market Funds and Shareholder Dilution
Authors: LYON ANDREW B.
Published: April 2012

This paper analyzes the effects of a share valuation technique, amortized cost valuation, on institutional money market funds (MMFs) and their investors. The possibility of arbitrage between securities priced at market value and amortized MMFs is investigated. It is found that significant dilution has taken place as a result of this valuation technique. Losses per share have been about 10 basis points per year. Evidence that arbitrageurs will take advantage of a misvaluation of the MMF and cause losses to other shareholders may suggest that some investors should reconsider the desirability of amortized MMFs for their investments.
A Further Empirical Investigation of the Bankruptcy Cost Question
Authors: ALTMAN EDWARD I.
Published: April 2012

In this paper, empirical evidence with respect to both the direct and indirect costs of bankruptcy is assessed. This should be of interest for three related reasons. First, there is a need to provide further evidence as to the size of bankruptcy costs. Second, for the first time a proxy methodology for measuring indirect costs of bankruptcy is presented and actually measured. Third, a simple format for measuring the present value of expected bankruptcy costs is compared with the present value of expected tax benefits from interest payments on leverage. This comparison has important implications for the continuing debate as to whether or not an optimum capital structure exists for corporations.
A Simple Implicit Measure of the Effective Bid‐Ask Spread in an Efficient Market
Authors: ROLL RICHARD
Published: April 2012

In an efficient market, the fundamental value of a security fluctuates randomly. However, trading costs induce negative serial dependence in successive observed market price changes. In fact, given market efficiency, the effective bid‐ask spread can be measured by where “cov” is the first‐order serial covariance of price changes. This implicit measure of the bid‐ask spread is derived formally and is shown empirically to be closely related to firm size.
The Effects of Inflation and Money Supply Announcements on Interest Rates
Authors: URICH THOMAS , WACHTEL PAUL
Published: April 2012

This paper examines the impact of the money supply and inflation rate announcements on interest rates. Survey data on expectations of the money supply and consumer and producer price indexes are used to distinguish anticipated and unanticipated components of the announcements. This distinction is used to test for the efficiency of the financial market response to the announcements of new information. The results indicate that the unanticipated components of the announced changes in the Producers Price Index and in the money supply have an immediate positive effect on short‐term interest rates. The Consumer Price Index announcement has no apparent effect. There is no evidence of a delayed announcement effect. However, there is some indication of a liquidity effect of the money supply change on interest rates. This takes place when reserves are changing and several weeks prior to the information announcement.
Shareholder Benefits from Corporate International Diversification
Authors: FATEMI ALI M.
Published: April 2012

This study provides further evidence on the rates of return realized by the shareholders of multinational firms relative to those of purely domestic firms. The results indicate that the risk‐adjusted returns realized by the shareholders are identical across the two groups except where the MNC operates in competitive foreign markets. In that case, MNC shareholders experience negative abnormal returns. The study also provides further evidence on the risk‐reduction effect of international diversification. The results fail to support the hypothesis that the beta is a convex function of the degree of international involvement. Finally, the paper provides some preliminary evidence on the effect of corporate international diversification on shareholders' returns. It is found that abnormal returns rise by some 18 percent during the 14 months preceding the initial foreign diversification.
Stability of the U.S. Short‐Run Money Demand Function, 1959–81
Authors: LIN KUAN‐PIN , OH JOHN S.
Published: April 2012

Stability tests are performed for the conventional U.S. money demand equation using switch regression techniques. This methodology provides for the identification of the shift point and the type of shift (abrupt or drift), and is conducive to hypothesis testing to determine the sources of the shift for the regression equation. Our findings do not support the contention that the 1974 change in money demand equation is a downward shift in the constant term, as suggested by many recent empirical money demand studies.
New Evidence That Taxes Affect the Valuation of Dividends
Authors: POTERBA JAMES M. , SUMMERS LAWRENCE H.
Published: April 2012

This paper uses British data to examine the effects of dividend taxes on investors' relative valuation of dividends and capital gains. British data offer great potential to illuminate the dividends and taxes question, since there have been two radical changes and several minor reforms in British dividend tax policy during the last 30 years. Studying the relationship between dividends and stock price movements during different tax regimes offers an ideal controlled experiment for assessing the effects of taxes on investors' valuation of dividends. Using daily data on a small sample of firms, and monthly data on a much broader sample, we find clear evidence that taxes affect the equilibrium relationship between dividend yields and market returns. These findings suggest that taxes are important determinants of security market equilibrium and deepen the puzzle of why firms pay dividends.
Portfolio Analysis Using Single Index, Multi‐Index, and Constant Correlation Models: A Unified Treatment
Authors: KWAN CLARENCE C. Y.
Published: April 2012

In this study a simple common algorithm which is applicable to seven models is proposed for optimal portfolio selection disallowing short sales of risky securities. The models considered in the analysis consist of a single index model, four multi‐index models, and two constant correlation models. Unlike the previous approach, the proposed algorithm does not require explicit ranking of securities. Therefore, it is particularly useful for two multi‐index models with orthogonal indices which do not provide any ranking criterion. Also, because of its algorithmic efficiency as demonstrated in a simulation study on models with multiple groups, the approach here can enhance their usefulness in portfolio analysis.
On Testing the Arbitrage Pricing Theory: Inter‐Battery Factor Analysis
Authors: CHO D. CHINHYUNG
Published: April 2012

This paper tests the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) by estimating the factor loadings that are consistent between two industry groups of securities. One of the pitfalls in the study by Roll and Ross is that the factors estimated in one group may not be the same with the factors estimated in another group. This raises some concerns on the acceptability of their conclusions. For our study, we employ inter‐battery factor analysis which enables us to estimate factor loadings by constraining the factors to be the same between two different groups. Our results show that there seem to be five or six inter‐group common factors that generate daily returns for two industry groups of securities, and these inter‐group common factors do not seem to depend on the size of groups. Also, based on our cross‐sectional tests on the risk premia, we conclude that the APT should not be rejected.
Dividend Policy under Asymmetric Information
Authors: MILLER MERTON H. , ROCK KEVIN
Published: April 2012

We extend the standard finance model of the firm's dividend/investment/financing decisions by allowing the firm's managers to know more than outside investors about the true state of the firm's current earnings. The extension endogenizes the dividend (and financing) announcement effects amply documented in recent research. But once trading of shares is admitted to the model along with asymmetric information, the familiar Fisherian criterion for optimal investment becomes time inconsistent: the market's belief that the firm is following the Fisher rule creates incentives to violate the rule.

We show that an informationally consistent signalling equilibrium exists under asymmetric information and the trading of shares that restores the time consistency of investment policy, but leads in general to lower levels of investment than the optimum achievable under full information and/or no trading. Contractual provisions that change the information asymmetry or the possibility of profiting from it could eliminate both the time inconsistency and the inefficiency in investment policies, but these contractual provisions too are likely to involve dead‐weight costs. Establishing which route or combination of routes serves in practice to maintain consistency remains for future research.
Dividends, Dilution, and Taxes: A Signalling Equilibrium
Authors: JOHN KOSE , WILLIAMS JOSEPH
Published: April 2012

A signalling equilibrium with taxable dividends is identified. In this equilibrium, corporate insiders with more valuable private information optimally distribute larger dividends and receive higher prices for their stock whenever the demand for cash by both their firm and its current stockholders exceeds its internal supply of cash. In equilibrium, many firms distribute dividends and simultaneously issue new stock, while other firms pay no dividends. Because dividends reveal all private information not conveyed by corporate audits, current stockholders capture in equilibrium all economic rents net of dissipative signalling costs. Both the announcement effect and the relationship between dividends and cum‐dividend market values are derived explicitly.
The Structure and Incentive Effects of Corporate Tax Liabilities
Authors: GREEN RICHARD C. , TALMOR ELI
Published: April 2012

This paper describes situations in which tax liabilities assume the form of a negative position in a call option. This structure motivates an examination of the investment decisions of taxed corporations in the presence of risk. It is shown that the structure of the tax liability creates an incentive to underinvest in more risky projects and an incentive for conglomerate merger. These effects are then evaluated in the presence of conflicts of interest between stockholders and bondholders, and under alternative assumptions about the tax code, and about the timing of investment and financing decisions.
Asset Returns, Discount Rate Changes, and Market Efficiency
Authors: SMIRLOCK MICHAEL , YAWITZ JESS
Published: April 2012

The primary purpose of this paper is to reconcile the previous findings of discount rate endogeneity with the presence of discount rate announcement effects in securities markets. The crux of this reconciliation is the distinction between “technical” discount rate changes that are endogenous and “nontechnical” changes which contain some informative policy implications. In essence, we attempt to separate expected discount rate changes from unexpected changes, or equivalently, the expected component of discount rate changes from the unexpected component. If markets are efficient, the former should have no announcement effects while the latter may be associated with an announcement effect. Accordingly, the focus of the empirical analysis is on the interaction between discount rate exogeneity, the specific monetary policy regime, and accouncement effects. In addition, we examine whether the behavior of these markets in the postannouncement period is consistent with the rapid price adjustment implied by market efficiency.
On Option Pricing Bounds
Authors: RITCHKEN PETER H.
Published: April 2012

The purpose of this article is to compare the Perrakis and Ryan bounds of option prices in a single‐period model with option bounds derived using linear programming. It is shown that the upper bounds are identical but that the lower bounds are different. A comparison of these bounds, together with Merton's bounds and the Black‐Scholes prices in a lognormal securities market, is presented.
Managerial Incentives for Short‐term Results
Authors: NARAYANAN M. P.
Published: April 2012

Of late, concern has been expressed that American managers tend to make decisions that yield short‐term gains at the expense of the long‐term interests of the shareholders. In this paper, we have attempted to investigate managerial incentives for such decisions. We find that, when the manager has private information regarding his or her decisions, there exist situations wherein the manager has incentives to make decisions which yield short‐term profits but are not in the stockholders best interests. This incentive for suboptimal decisions arises because the manager, by taking decisions yielding short‐term profits, hopes to enhance his reputation earlier, thus boosting his wages. We also find that this incentive is inversely related to her experience, the duration of her contract, and the risk of the firm.
On the Feasibility of Automated Market Making by a Programmed Specialist
Authors: HAKANSSON NILS H. , BEJA AVRAHAM , KALE JIVENDRA
Published: April 2012

Securities trading is accomplished through the execution of orders. Admissible orders (e.g., market orders, limit orders) give rise to discontinuous aggregate demand functions, composed of many “steps.” Demand smoothing, or the balancing of excesses due to such discontinuities via intervention, is one of the most basic functions that could be assigned to a “specialist.” When the specialist's “affirmative obligation” is fully specified, his or her activity can in principle be automated. This paper is an attempt to assess, via simulation, some of the ramifications of using a “programmed specialist,” whose automated market making is limited to demand smoothing. A number of alternative rules of operation are simulated. Several of the rules performed well, especially the extremely simple rule that calls for the (computerized) specialist to minimize new absolute share holdings in each security at each trading point via “total” (as opposed to “local”) demand smoothing. Our results indicate that the underlying costs of demand smoothing are on the order of a fraction of a penny per share traded even in relatively thin markets.
Capital Asset Pricing Compatible with Observed Market Value Weights
Authors: BEST MICHAEL J. , GRAUER ROBERT R.
Published: April 2012

We show that the set of expected return vectors, for which an observed portfolio is mean variance (MV) efficient, is a two‐parameter family. We identify ten ways to specify the time series behavior of the two parameters; the result highlights a number of inconsistencies involved in MV modelling. For each of the cases, it permits the inference of the time series of expected return vectors, as well as all the other Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) variables, compatible with a known covariance matrix and the observed time series of market value weights. The empirical work shows that there are substantial case‐to‐case differences in the time series of mean vectors and many of them are quite different from the constant mean vector envisioned in tests of the CAPM.
International Asset Pricing under Mild Segmentation: Theory and Test
Authors: ERRUNZA VIHANG , LOSQ ETIENNE
Published: April 2012

This paper conducts a theoretical and empirical investigation of the pricing (and portfolio) implications of investment barriers in the context of international capital markets. The postulated market structure—labelled “mildly segmented”—leads to the existence of “super” risk premiums for a subset of securities and to a breakdown of the standard separation result. The empirical study uses an extended data base including LDC markets and provides tentative support for the mild segmentation hypothesis.
An Investigation of Commodity Futures Prices Using the Consumption‐Based Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model
Authors: JAGANNATHAN RAVI
Published: April 2012

In this paper we extend the multigood futures pricing model of Grauer and Litzenberger [9] to a dynamic discrete time setting. We then test the model using data on futures prices for corn, wheat, and soybeans. The parameter estimates we obtain are similar to those obtained by other researchers using stock return data. The model itself is rejected and we offer some suggestions as to which assumption may be violated. We also give an interpretation to the Hansen‐Singleton nonlinear instrumental variables estimation technique used in our empirical work.
Returns to Speculators and the Theory of Normal Backwardation
Authors: CHANG ERIC C.
Published: April 2012

A nonparametric statistical procedure is employed to examine the returns to speculators in wheat, corn, and soybeans futures markets. We find that the theory of normal backwardation is supported. Moreover, the presence of the risk premiums to speculators tends to be more prominent in recent years than in earlier years. We also find that large wheat speculators as a whole possessed some superior forecasting ability. The evidence is inconsistent with the hypothesis that commodity futures prices are unbiased estimates of the corresponding future spot prices.
The Effect of Voluntary Sell‐off Announcements on Shareholder Wealth
Authors: JAIN PREM C.
Published: April 2012

Sell‐off activities arise when a firm sells part of its assets (e.g., a segment, a division, etc.) but continues to exist in essentially the same form. This study investigates the effect of voluntary sell‐offs on stock returns. From a sample of over 1000 sell‐off events (first public announcements), the evidence shows that both sellers and buyers earn significant positive excess returns from these transactions. The excess returns earned by buyers are smaller than those earned by sellers. There is also evidence that sell‐off announcements are preceded by a period of significant negative returns for the sellers which suggests that the sellers, on average, performed poorly prior to their sell‐off activities.
Bank Funding Risks, Risk Aversion, and the Choice of Futures Hedging Instrument
Authors: KOPPENHAVER G. D.
Published: April 2012

Currently, theories of financial futures hedging are based on either a portfolio‐choice approach or a duration approach. This article presents an alternative: a firm‐theoretic model of bank behavior with financial futures. Assuming the bank is uncertain about cash CD interest rates and the quantity of CDs it needs in the future, expressions for the optimal futures hedge are derived under constant absolute risk aversion and constant relative risk aversion. The performance of these two strategies is estimated from 1981–1983 using either the recently developed CD futures contract or the T‐Bill futures contract. These results are also compared with the performance of a portfolio‐choice strategy and a routine hedging strategy. The analysis indicates that the CD futures market can serve a hedging purpose that is not served by the previously established T‐Bill futures market.
Marginal Tax Rates: Evidence from Nontaxable Corporate Bonds: A Note
Authors: ANG JAMES , PETERSON DAVID , PETERSON PAMELA
Published: April 2012

This study offers an alternative method of calculating marginal personal tax rates through the pairing of nontaxable (industrial development and pollution control) and taxable corporate bonds. This procedure is shown to produce matched bond pairs that are comparable. Two hundred pairs of bonds are examined from the second quarter of 1973 through the second quarter of 1983. Testing of the marginal tax rate relationships indicates that the marginal personal tax rate is less than the corporate statutory tax rate.
Personal Income Taxes and the January Effect: Small Firm Stock Returns Before the War Revenue Act of 1917: A Note
Authors: SCHULTZ PAUL
Published: April 2012

This paper tests the tax explanation of the January effect by examining small firm stock returns before the War Revenue Act of 1917. No evidence of a turn‐of‐the‐year effect is found. This paper also extends previous authors' work on the subject to 1918–29. A January effect is found during that period.
The Week‐End Effect in Common Stock Returns: The International Evidence
Authors: JAFFE JEFFREY , WESTERFIELD RANDOLPH
Published: April 2012

This paper examines the daily stock market returns for four foreign countries. We find a so‐called “week‐end effect” in each country. In addition, the lowest mean returns for the Japanese and Australian stock markets occur on Tuesday.

The remainder of the paper answers four questions. Are seasonal patterns in foreign stock markets independent of those previously reported in the U.S.? Do Japan and Australia exhibit a seasonal one day out of phase due to different time zones? Do settlement procedures across countries bias week‐end effects? Does the seasonal pattern in foreign exchange offset the week‐end effect in stocks for Americans investing overseas?
Nonparametric Tests of Alternative Option Pricing Models Using All Reported Trades and Quotes on the 30 Most Active CBOE Option Classes from August 23, 1976 through August 31, 1978
Authors: RUBINSTEIN MARK
Published: April 2012

The tests reported here differ in several ways from those of most other papers testing option pricing models: an extremely large sample of observations of both trades and bid‐ask quotes is examined, careful consideration is given to discarding misleading records, nonparametric rather than parametric statistical tests are used, reported results are not sensitive to measurement of stock volatility, special care is taken to incorporate the effects of dividends and early exercise, a simple method is developed to test several option pricing formulas simultaneously, and the statistical significance and consistency across subsamples of the most important reported results are unusually high. The three key results are: (1) short‐maturity out‐of‐the‐money calls are priced significantly higher relative to other calls than the Black‐Scholes model would predict, (2) striking price biases relative to the Black‐Scholes model are also statistically significant but have reversed themselves after long periods of time, and (3) no single option pricing model currently developed seems likely to explain this reversal.
On the Interaction of Real and Financial Decisions of the Firm Under Uncertainty
Authors: DOTAN AMIHUD , RAVID S. ABRAHAM
Published: April 2012

This study analyzes the interaction between the optimal level of investment and debt financing. For this purpose, a model is structured in which a firm, facing an uncertain price, has to decide on its optimal level of investment and debt. The amount of investment sets a limit on output whose optimal level is determined after price is realized. The debt involved is risky (there exists a possibility of bankruptcy).

The analysis proves that investment and its optimal financing have to be simultaneously determined and that a negative relationship exists between operating and financial leverage. We also demonstrate that as the tax rate increases, optimal capacity decreases and optimal leverage increases. An analysis of the impact of changes in the expected price shows that under some conditions, an increase in expected price would lead to an increase in optimal investment (firm size) and a decrease in optimal debt.
On the Theory of Rational Insurance Purchasing: A Note
Authors: BRIYS ERIC P. , LOUBERGE HENRI
Published: April 2012

The authors consider the optimal amount of insurance purchased by an individual who behaves according to the Hurwicz criterion of choice under uncertainty. Their results are compared with earlier results obtained in alternative frameworks (expected utility maximization and Savage's regret criterion). It is shown that a positive amount deductible is often suboptimal.
Debt and Taxes and Uncertainty
Authors: ROSS STEPHEN A.
Published: April 2012

With a graduated personal tax schedule, Miller showed that there could be an equilibrium debt supply for the corporate sector as a whole. In the presence of uncertainty there is also a unique debt/equity ratio for each individual firm, and this ratio is related to the firm's operational risk characteristics. However, if firms merge and spin off in response to tax incentives, the identity of firms is ambiguous and only the corporate sector is a meaningful construct. These arguments are developed in both discrete and continuous models that employ extensions of the arbitrage‐free pricing theory.
An Unbiased Reexamination of Stock Market Volatility
Authors: MANKIW N. GREGORY , ROMER DAVID , SHAPIRO MATTHEW D.
Published: April 2012

Recent work demonstrates serious statistical problems with standard volatility tests. This paper proposes new tests that are unbiased in small samples and that do not require assumptions of stationarity. The new tests continue to find evidence against the model positing rational expectations and a constant required rate of return on equity.
The Disposition to Sell Winners Too Early and Ride Losers Too Long: Theory and Evidence
Authors: SHEFRIN HERSH , STATMAN MEIR
Published: April 2012

One of the most significant and unique features in Kahneman and Tversky's approach to choice under uncertainty is aversion to loss realization. This paper is concerned with two aspects of this feature. First, we place this behavior pattern into a wider theoretical framework concerning a general disposition to sell winners too early and hold losers too long. This framework includes other elements, namely mental accounting, regret aversion, self‐control, and tax considerations. Second, we discuss evidence which suggests that tax considerations alone cannot explain the observed patterns of loss and gain realization, and that the patterns are consistent with a combined effect of tax considerations and the three other elements of our framework. We also show that the concentration of loss realizations in December is not consistent with fully rational behavior, but is consistent with our theory.