L'évolution des structures de la population active
Authors: Grais Bernard , Rolen Christiane , Jousset Marie-Françoise , Passagez Monique 
Published: October 2019

Structural changes of the labour force. Analysis of the results of employment surveys October 1962 and October 1964.

Current population surveys are designed to provide information on variations in the structure of the economically active population : changes of activity rates , distribution by socio-economic class and employment status and by industry , rate of decline in the agricultural labor force, etc. The October 1964 survey belongs to the new series which uses as a basis for sampling the housing returns of the 1962 general population census. Its results are compared here with those of the October 1962 survey. These two operations were in fact carried out on the same sample of housing , obviously completed in 1964 to allow for dwellings constructed in the meantime, or on a total of about 28,000 dwellings in 1962 and 29,000 in 1964, corresponding to a sampling rate of 1/600. In this way the changes can be measured very much more precisely than by comparing the results of two independent samples.

While, on the whole, the aggregate population seems fairly correctly represented in the survey, a substantial under-estimate is found, in spite of all the precautions taken, in the 20-35 age groups, especially men, which becomes wider with time. This is partly offset by a surplus of young people under 20 and people over 65.

This distortion, which affects the age groups at the height of their activity, has had unfortunate consequences on the assessment of the trend of active population between 1962 and 1964. In the case of men , in particular, it seems to be under-estimated by about 300,000.

In spite of these shortcomings, these surveys provide valuable indications on the trend of the active population in fields where there is sometimes no other source of information.

Between 1962 and 1964, the activity rates, in addition to the trends normally observed — decline in the activity of young people owing to longer schooling, decline in the older age groups owing to the general introduction of pensions and the relative decrease of self-employment — show a tendency to increase for women between 30 and 50, who resume work after bringing up their children. This characteristic trend seems to be in line with the assumptions made in projecting activity rates for the purpose of forecasting active population for the preparation of the Vth Plan.

The assessment of the variation in the active agricultural population has been made harder by the disturbances resulting from the introduction of a health-insurance scheme for working farmers. After analysis, the rate of decline of 6.1 % appears to be in line with that observed between the 1954 and 1962 Censuses.

As a counterpart a rapid increase is noted in the numbers in the categories «professionals and senior executives » (+10.5 %), «middle executives » (+ 8.2 %) and «clerical staff » (+ 6.4 %).

The progressive extension of the status of wage-earners continues, masking two divergent movements, a fall in the number of agricultural wage-earners and an increase in the number of non-agricultural wage-earners. On the other hand, in the non-agricultural sector the number of employers in industry and commerce seems rather to be inclined to increase, the fall in self-employed persons being offset by the increase in employers proper , while the number of family helpers is stable.

In general, in non-agricultural enterprises, with a few exceptions, the number of employees is growing, in line both with the influx of labour from agriculture and the growing-up of the post-War «bulge ». For this last reason, in particular, the growth rate seems much larger than it was between 1954 and 1962, during which period the increase in the numbers employed in non-agricultural enterprises was mainly the result of transfers from agriculture to other sectors of activity. The growth rate of industrial wage-earners has thus doubled compared with the inter-Census period. While the increase in numbers seems to be progressing fairly moderately in commerce, it has more than doubled for the whole of the service sector compa red to this same period of 1954-1962. These different movements have resulted in a new distribution of the active population between the three major sectors of activity, as follows :

1962 ........................................ 21.2 37.5 41.3 100.00

1964 ........................................ 19.9 38.3 41.8 100.00

The marginal active population, 90 % of whom are women, has again fallen during this period, from 1,100,000 in 1960, to 970,000 in 1962 and 810,000 in 1964. This decline is connected with the decline in the agricultural population and in the category of employers in industry and commerce, particularly through their family helpers, who are the source of the marginal active population. Cyclical variations seem to have been superimposed on this long term trend during the period as a result of a slowing down in the rate of decline of non-agricultural family helpers.

In October, 1964, out of 19,619,000 persons in employment, 826,000 or 4.2 % did not work during the reference week, for one reason or another, of whom 584,000 for sickness or statutory maternity leave.

During the same period 859,000 persons were registered as looking for work. Nearly half were without a job, while the other half sought a change of employment and a small minority had a marginal activity.

Of the 420,000 persons available in search of employment, 254,000 satisfied the definition of «unemployment » used in the censuses. The ratio of these persons to the number of persons registered with employment exchanges, which was 1.9 in October, 1960, and March, 1962, shifted successively to 1.6 in October, 1962 and 2.5 in October 1964. In October, 1962, the fall in this ratio, apart from sampling random errors, reflected the fact that repatriates in search of work registered in large numbers with employment exchanges in order to safeguard their rights. In particular, the number of young people under 25, who only register with employment exchanges in the proportion of 1 out of 4 or 5, rose from 107,000 in 1962, including a certain number of repatriates, to 127,000 in 1964. In 1964, moreover, 37 % of those without work were in search of their first job, compared with 27 % in 1962. From that date, unemployment among young people seems to have become worse, but, of course, such unemployment does not last a long time : little more than one tenth are obliged to continue looking for more than six months, whereas this proportion amounts to 45 % for those above 45.

Employment surveys, which also provide information on working hours and the activity of elderly people, are thus a valuable complement to the partial information available from various sources, by providing an overall setting. They also make it possible to go into concepts in depth and to refine analysis.