bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Analysis of Issues on Micro Credit—The Case of Two Villages in Punjab
Authors: Seemi Waheed
Published: August 2018

The phenomenon of poverty was felt and observed more during the decade of 1990s, as the overall growth slowed down. While the slowed economic growth and recessionary trends contributed to poverty, the trickle “down effect” once thought, to improve living conditions, did not reach the lowest level owing largely to lack of accessibility of institutions, unjust and non-poor policies. For these reasons, in Pakistan during the decades of 60s and 80s, when the country experienced high growth rates of 6-7 percent, 34 percent of people still lived below the poverty line. Socio-economic development, improving the quality of life in general and of rural poor in particular, welfare have been the prime stated goals of government. Therefore, rural development programmes, such as, Village-Aid, Integrated Rural Development Programme (IRDP), Peoples Works Programme, Tameer-e-watan Programme, Prime Minister’s Five Points Programme etc. were introduced to improve farm productivity, which would consequently improve incomes and quality of life of rural poor. This was done through the Department of Local Government and Rural Development. Little impact on the life of the rural poor, however, was observed partly because these were administered through closed, immutable and cloistered institutions of government which are not accessible and responsive to the needs of poor. Also, the lack of focus on community participation and need for it was evident. As these programmes were managed through government departments these lacked flexibility and out-reach. The approach of administering was fixed, rigid and lacked professionalism.
Sectoral Analysis of the Demand for Real Money Balances in Pakistan
Authors: Abdul Qayyum
Published: August 2018

The main objective of monetary policy in Pakistan, as in other countries, is to achieve price stability. In order to achieve the objective of stable prices, the State Bank of Pakistan is using M2 definition of money supply as an intermediate target variable to conduct the monetary policy. This choice of target variable is based on the long understanding that only the demand for M2 monetary aggregate is stable in Pakistan. The definition of money aggregates two main sectors of the economy that is business sector and household sector. Theories such as quantity theory, Keynesian and transactions, state that both sectors have diversified behaviour. Money demand behaviour of these sectors largely depends on the different sets of variables. Therefore the aggregation of these sectors is rather poor.
Debt Accumulation and Its Implications for Growth and Poverty (The Presidential Address)
Authors: A. R. Kemal
Published: August 2018

Rising levels of debt and debt servicing, falling rates of investment, declining growth rates of output and employment, and sharp increase in poverty sum up the disappointing performance of Pakistan’s economy over the last decade. By the end of the fiscal year 2001, external debt had increased to $30 billion, and the ratio of external debt and the present value of debt servicing stood at 64.0 and 80.0 percent of GDP respectively. Even though the ratio of debt servicing to export earnings and debt servicing to total foreign exchange earnings have declined because of debt rescheduling, still they were 37.4 and 23.3 percent, respectively, in 2000-01. Prior to debt rescheduling, the two ratios were 55.4 and 34.9 percent in 1997-98. The average growth rate of GDP has been less than 4 percent, with a declining trend, and unemployment rate has increased from less than 5 percent to 7.8 percent over the last decade. The real wages have fallen, and one-third of the population is unable to meet its nutritional requirements. While a number of factors including the inconsistency of the economic policies of successive governments, Structural Adjustment and Stabilisation Programmes of the IMF, and corruption have been responsible for this state of affairs, debt accumulation to alarming proportions is also a major cause of such performance.
Efficiency in the Pakistani Banking Industry: Empirical Evidence after the Structural Reform in the Late 1990s
Authors: Atsush Iimi
Published: August 2018

This article examines the change in technical (in)efficiency of the Pakistani banking industry after the structural reform started in the late 1990s. With international assistance, the Pakistani government has undertaken the restructuring and preparation for privatisation of national commercial and development banks, of which the main goal is the improvement of the efficiency in financial markets. Despite the small sample size, the estimated stochastic production frontier indicates that employees are statistically productive, but capital in terms of branch network is not productive. This is an example counter to the common view that in a less developed banking industry, employees are too often idle and are not productive at all. It is also shown that the efficiency performance of the structural adjustment programmes is in marked contrast among banks. Some banks are found to have improved their technical efficiency during the reform period, while the efficiency improvement of others was ambiguous.
Is There Seasonality in Pakistan’s Merchandise Exports and Imports? The Univariate Modelling Approach
Authors: Sajjad Akhtar
Published: August 2018

This paper investigates the existence of seasonal patterns in the quarterly merchandise export and import data of Pakistan from 1982:1 to 2002:1. Unit root tests are applied to determine whether the seasonal component in each variable exhibits stochastic non-stationarity. Deterministic and stochastic effects are isolated and quantified. Few alternate DGP specifications are identified, fitted and tested for their outof- sample forecasting performance. A tentative finding is that deterministic effects are relatively more important than stochastic ones. However, integrated models, i.e., ARIMA, mixed ARIMA, and ARIMA-GARCH, outperform deterministic models with respect to forecasting.
Jay R. Mandle. Globalisation and the Poor. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2003. x+157 pages. Paperback. £ 12.95.
Authors: Mir Annice Mahmood
Published: August 2018

The issue of globalisation of the world economy has taken centre-stage in discussions relating to the process of economic development and the distribution of income between the developed and developing countries. Although these are many current concerns, globalisation as such has occurred at different points in recorded human history of the past several thousand years. The Roman Empire, for instance, is quoted as one of the earlier examples of globalisation. More recently, the period leading up to World War I saw an increasingly integrated world economy under British Imperial rule. The most recent attempt at globalisation started in the late 1970s and continues to the present day.
Jane Smith. Empowering People. New Delhi: Kogan Page India (Pvt.) Limited. 2002. 119 pages. Indian Rs 140.00.
Authors: Waleed Mohsin
Published: August 2018

Managing organisations and managing people in our ever-changing and complex environment is a tough task, which requires integration on the part of the management and the workforce. Empowerment is a buzzword these days, and almost all organisations are focusing on using empowerment as a means of adapting to an environment of fast-changing business world. Empowerment does not only benefit the organisation but also the individuals involved. In the process, both those who are empowering and the ones who are being empowered share decision-making. Thus, empowerment is a mutual process, which is vital to the success of the organisation and all those linked to the organisation directly and indirectly. It is surely one of the most common business trends, and certainly an issue which all good managers should be aware of.
Poverty and Inequality during the Adjustment Decade: Empirical Findings from Household Surveys
Authors: Haroon Jamal
Published: August 2018

This paper investigates the dynamics of poverty and inequality in Pakistan over the period 1988-1999. The year 1988 was the year of the first formal Structural Adjustment Lending (SAL) from the World Bank and the IMF. Thus, this analysis facilitates the debate regarding the impact of SAL on household welfare and poverty. This is done by analysing changes in poverty and inequality from two comparable household income and expenditure surveys conducted by the Federal Bureau of Statistics. Our findings show an increase both in the Gini coefficient from 0.34 to 0.38 and poverty incidence from 24 to 30. The dynamic decomposition of the poverty index indicates the relative importance of growth and redistribution effects in explaining the changes in poverty. The analysis reveals that increase in poverty can mainly be attributed to low economic growth during the decade especially in the rural areas.
Children in Different Activities: Child Schooling and Child Labour
Authors: Rana Ejaz Ali Khan
Published: August 2018

Using primary data from two districts of Pakistan, this article analyses the supplyside determinants of child labour. The study finds that the birth-order of the child has a significant association with schooling and labour decision of child: first school enrolment of children is delayed; there exists gender disparity in favour of male children; the children from female-headed households are more likely to go to school; the education of the head of household has a positive impact on child’s schooling; among the parent’s parameters mother’s education is more important than father’s; parental education is positively associated with child schooling and negatively associated with child labour. The ownership of assets impacts the schooling positively, and labour negatively; the household size affects the schooling negatively, and work positively; and household composition also has a significant effect on schooling and child labour. The children from urban areas are more likely to go to school.
Coming of Age in Contemporary Pakistan: Influences of Gender and Poverty
Authors: Minhaj Ul Haque  , Munawar Sultana
Published: August 2018

Economic development is strongly connected to the longevity, growth and structure of country’s population [Bloom and Canning (2003)]. Pakistan currently has the largest cohort of young people in its history (25 million aged 15-24, Census 1998) that has serious implications for the provision of schooling, health services and adequate jobs. Therefore the well being of these valuable young cohorts is profoundly important for the social and economic development and prosperity of Pakistan [Population Council (2003)]. This demographic lift can promote economic lift-off [Bloom and Canning (2003)]. In fact, Pakistan will face dire consequences if this resource is not capitalised and young people remain uneducated and unskilled [Faizunnisa and Ikram (2003)]. Work is one of the key transitions in the lives of young people. It is an important marker of adulthood, with strong implications for a country’s social and economic development. Work depending on its nature and remuneration can be the most important factor shaping adult lives. Youth employment has many implications for the labour market, poorer households and for the youth themselves.
Openness and Economic Growth in Pakistan
Authors: Musleh ud Din  , Omer Siddique
Published: August 2018

Trade and growth theories generally predict a positive relationship between openness to international trade and economic growth. There are a number of channels through which openness is thought to influence economic growth. First, a liberal trade regime enhances efficiency through greater competition and improved resource allocation. Second, greater access to world markets allows economies to overcome size limitations and benefit from economies of scale. Third, imports of capital and intermediate goods can contribute to the growth process by enlarging the productive capacity of the economy. Fourth, trade can lead to productivity gains through international diffusion and adoption of new technologies. Empirical studies on the relationship between openness and economic growth have largely supported the view that openness has a favourable impact on economic growth. It is not surprising, then, that the proposition that more open economies tend to grow faster has gained wide acceptance in academic as well as policy circles. The objective of this paper is to examine the relationship between openness and economic growth in the context of Pakistan’s economy. Section 2 reviews the literature on openness and economic growth. Section 3 provides an overview of trade liberalisation in Pakistan. Data and methodology are described in Section 4, while Section 5 presents the empirical results. Section 6 concludes the discussion.
Redressing the Rural-Urban Imbalance (Distinguished
Lecture)
Authors: Epstein T Scarlett
Published: August 2018

This paper focuses on rural poverty, its causes and effects,
and suggests one of a number of possible measures to alleviate the
problem. It examines why there exists an urban bias in development, and
the impact it has on development patterns. The macroimplications derived
from intensive longitudinal micro-studies of two South Indian villages
are also examined. These studies throw into relief the key role
income-generating opportunities play in rural societies. They show how
the existence of such opportunities ensures the reduction of rural
poverty and removes, or at least reduces, the need for ruralurban
migration; whereas their absence has the reverse effect. As the growing
rural population accompanied by increasing water shortages reduce the
possibilities of continuing increases in agricultural productivity,
there is an urgent need to urbanise rural life and to make it more
attractive in terms of economy and infrastructure. Finally, an outline
of a Three-Level Rural-Urban Business Linkages paradigm, which though
putting emphasis on increased agricultural productivity, stresses the
growing importance of establishing agro-based industries and the
creation of other off-farm activities. It is presented as one option
that may be pursued to redress the rural-urban imbalance and thereby
reduce rural poverty. The paradigm involves a decentralisation of small
goods productive processes in a setting of Growth Areas and Growth
Centres that are linked with the nearest large towns and/or cities. As
long as the political will exists and the necessary preconditions are
met, the implementation of this paradigm constitutes a good chance of
improving conditions in both rural and urban areas.
Incidence of Child Labour, Free Education Policy, and Economic Liberalisation in a Developing Economy
Authors: Sarbajit Chaudhuri
Published: August 2018

The paper analyses the implications of a subsidy policy on education and of different liberalised trade and investment policies on the incidence of child labour in a developing economy in terms of a three-sector general equilibrium model with informal sector and child labour. The supply function of child labour is endogenously determined. The paper shows that different policies, if undertaken concurrently, may produce mutually contradictory effects, thereby producing little or no impact on the incidence of child labour. The paper provides a theoretical answer as to why the incidence of child labour has not significantly declined in the developing economies in spite of economic development and globalisation.
Willingness to Pay for Primary Education in Rural Pakistan
Authors: Najam Saqib
Published: August 2018

Highly subsidised public schools are the principal provider of education in the rural areas of Pakistan. Steady growth of school age population over time coupled with stagnant public funding has put enormous pressure on this system. The alternative of cost recovery through user charges has its own critics. They argue that introduction of tuition fees would substantially reduce the already small representation of low-income households in primary schools due to high price elasticity of their demand for schooling. Moreover, the revenuegenerating potential of this policy may also be limited due to same reason. The present study uses a discrete choice random utility model of household utility maximising behaviour to evaluate feasibility and consequences of introducing user fees in primary schools in rural Pakistan, particularly with reference to above criticisms. The demand function for school enrolment derived from this model allows us to test the hypothesis that price elasticity of demand for schooling varies with income. It also provides estimates of the parameters of the utility function needed for measuring parents’ willingness to pay for their childrens’ education if money generated from tuition fees is reinvested in education. The estimated demand function takes into account total price of education, including opportunity cost. Estimation results show that price elasticity of demand for school enrolment is higher for lower-income groups. Hence school enrolment of the poorest children would bear the main brunt of user fees policy. Children’s gender and age, father’s education, presence of T.V. in the household, and community variables like the presence of an elected district council member, electricity, and public transport in the village turn out to be significant influences on the probability of primary school enrolment. Willingness to pay for education is lower for poorer households and can generate revenues to cover only a fraction of the cost of running a school. Hence the need to search for other sources of financing primary education in rural Pakistan.
Transition in Primary and Secondary Schooling in Pakistan: Gender and Age Cohort Analysis
Authors: Naushin Mahmood
Published: August 2018

This study assesses the changing pattern of school attendance through age cohort analysis for both males and females in Pakistan. Based on the 1998 census data on educational attainment, the results indicate a profound rise in school attendance among younger age cohorts contributing to elimination of gender gap in primary-level schooling in urban areas only. The disadvantaged situation of rural females is reflected by a combination of low school entries/attendance to begin with, and high chance of discontinuing education before completing primary levels. The pattern of school transition reveals that among those few who have completed Class Five, the chances of staying through the secondary level are much higher—after which dropout accelerates rapidly. Two overall conclusions emerge from these results. First, the bulk of the deficit from universal primary education comes from females population, especially in rural areas. Second, the key to reducing dropouts and gender gap in school attendance lies in actions that raise the demand for schooling of girls, with equally matched availability of quality primary- and secondarylevel schools. It appears that achieving universal primary education by 2015, as mandated in the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), remains a tall order for Pakistan.
Inayatullah, Rubina Saigol, and Pervez Tahir (eds). Social Sciences in Pakistan: A Profile. Islamabad: Council of Social Sciences, 2005. 512 pages. Hardbound. Rs 500.00.
Authors: Faiz Bilquees
Published: August 2018

Commissioned by the Council of Social Sciences (COSS), this volume evaluates the seventeen social sciences departments in the public universities in Pakistan for a given set of parameters. The social sciences departments or the topics covered in this volume and their respective authors include: Teaching of International Relations in Pakistani Universities (Rasul Bakhsh Rais); Development of the Discipline of Political Science in Pakistan (Inayatullah); The Development of Strategic Studies in Pakistan (Ayesha Siddiqa); The State of Educational Discourse in Pakistan (Rubina Saigol); Development of Philosophy as a Discipline (Mohammad Ashraf Adeel); The State of the Discipline of Psychology in Public Universities in Pakistan: A Review (Muhammad Pervez and Kamran Ahmad); Development of Economics as a Discipline in Pakistan (Karamat Ali); Sociology in Pakistan: A Review of Progress (Muhammad Hafeez); Anthropology in Pakistan: The State of [sic] Discipline (Nadeem Omar Tarar); Development of the Discipline of History in Pakistan (Mubarak Ali); The Discipline of Public Administration in Pakistan (Zafar Iqbal Jadoon and Nasira Jabeen); Journalism and Mass Communication (Mehdi Hasan); Area Studies in Pakistan: An Assessment (Muhammad Islam); Pakistan Studies: A Subject of the State, and the State of the Subject (Syed Jaffar Ahmed); The State of the Discipline of Women’s Studies in Pakistan (Rubina Saigol); Peace and Conflict Resolution Studies (Moonis Ahmar and Farhan H. Siddiqi); and Linguistics in Pakistan: A Survey of the Contemporary Situation (Tariq Rahman).
Foreign Capital Inflow, Skilled-Unskilled Wage Gap, and Welfare in the Presence of the Informal Sector
Authors: Kausik Gupta  , Tania Basu
Published: August 2018

This paper attempts to analyse the impact of trade liberalisation on the skilledunskilled wage gap and the level of welfare of developing countries, which are generally characterised by large “informal” labour markets. A neo-classical full-employment foursector model has been developed, where the informal sector produces either a final product or an intermediate product on subcontracting basis. Evidence shows that in either case, trade liberalisation, in the form of an increase in foreign capital inflow, widens the skilled-unskilled wage gap of the economy under some reasonable conditions. It also shows that as a result of an increase in the foreign capital inflow, the level of welfare of the economy increases, when the informal sector produces a final product. However, when the informal sector produces an intermediate product on subcontracting basis, the level of welfare of the economy falls.
Child Health and Poverty in Pakistan
Authors: G. M. Arif
Published: August 2018

This study examines the health status of Pakistani children using two important indicators, morbidity and malnutrition measured by weight-for-age and height-for-age. The demand for medical services has also been determined. The main data source used in this study is the 2000-01 Pakistan Social-Economic Survey (PSES), which provides sufficient information on child health and poverty. Findings of the study show that both exclusive breastfeeding during the first 4-5 months of life and immunisation can help control the occurrence of illness significantly among the young children (0-5 months). These also reinforce the role of mother’s education in the production of child health (nutritional status). This role of mother’s education is found to be more pronounced in the poor families than in the non-poor families. The rise in poverty since the mid-1990s has adversely influenced the nutritional status of children. The basic issue is about how to reduce the household food insecurity. The benefits of recent high GDP growth may be transferred to the poor through employment generation, which has been slow in the past decade. Real incomes of the poor and the vulnerable segments of the population may also be protected against the rise in prices of essential food items. At present, the health and nutrition sector is getting only 0.7 percent of the GDP. Health care facilities in the country are curative in nature, and are heavily skewed in favour of the diagnostic and treatment side, not preventive healthcare aspects. More resources should be made available for preventive healthcare aspects. Coverage of child immunisation should be enhanced, and the provision of safe drinkingwater may be given high priority in the social sector policies.
Electric Power Generation from Solar Photovoltaic Technology: Is It Marketable in Pakistan?
Authors: Waqasullah Khan Shinwari  , Fahd Ali  , A. H. Nayyar
Published: August 2018

Solar photovoltaic systems are prohibitively expensive in terms of installation costs. Power from them is also available intermittently—only when energy from the sun is available. On the other hand, PV systems are free of the ever-rising costs of input fuel. They also incur much less operation and maintenance costs and are supposed to have a longer lifetime than, for example, a fossil fuel power plant. Thus using solar-PV power looks uneconomical in the short term, but may be profitable in the long term. It is, therefore, interesting to identify the factors that can make investment in solar PV power generation acceptable. This paper carries out a financial analysis of installing a 10 MW solar photovoltaic power generation plant for sale of electricity to a grid. It compares the levelised cost of this mode of energy generation as compared to a fossil fuel plant. It also calculates the cost of electricity generation and tariff for power from this plant. It then identifies the factors that can make the investment in a grid-scale solar PV plant more favourable than investment in other conventional and non-renewable sources.
Total Factor Productivity Growth in Pakistan’s Agriculture: 1960-1996
Authors: Shujat Ali
Published: August 2018

Nearly one-quarter of Pakistan’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is contributed by the agriculture sector and it employs nearly 44 percent of the labour force. Agricultural exports, directly and indirectly, make up a large proportion of total exports and foreign exchange earnings of the country. Agriculture in Pakistan faces considerable challenge in the 21st century. The present population of about 149 million, growing at about 1ta. 9 percent per year, is expected to double to 298 million in about 40 years. Pakistan’s agriculture has experienced rapid growth since the 1960s. The average annual growth of about 4 percent in the four decades before the onset of the new millennium has exceeded the population growth that touched about 3 percent for a substantial part of this period.1 This rate of growth in agriculture has been sustained by the technological progress embodied in the highyielding varieties of grains and cotton with supporting public investment in irrigation, agricultural research and extension (R&E), and physical infrastructure. Agricultural growth, in turn, has made significant contribution to the overall economic growth of about 6 percent per year during this period. Despite rising per capita income, food demand is likely to grow rapidly given the low level of current per capita income. There is a compelling need for sustained efforts to increase production of essential items (wheat, edible oils, etc.). Faced with limits to further expansion of cultivated land and slowing returns to further input intensification, productivity growth assumes a central role in meeting the challenges of the future.
A Search for an Optimum Currency Area Partners for Pakistan
Authors: Farooq Rasheed  , Javed A. Ansari
Published: August 2018

The Indian government has on several occasions advocated the idea that a common currency area be formed in the SAARC region. The response from other member countries has been somewhat lukewarm. They are unconvinced that the benefit of currency union establishment will outweigh the cost emanating from the abandonment of national monetary sovereignty. This paper seeks to empirically investigate the feasibility of a common currency area for Pakistan with each one of the following countries; India, Bangladesh, Saudi Arabia and Sri Lanka. This empirical investigation involves estimation of the co-variation of the bilateral real exchange rates using the Japanese Yen and the US dollar as base currencies. Section 2 begins with an eclectic overview of the Optimum Currency Area (OCA) literature. Section 3 presents the estimation methodology, Section 4 discusses the findings and Section 5 concludes the analysis.
Transition of Poverty in Pakistan: Evidence from the Longitudinal Data
Authors: Rashida Haq
Published: August 2018

Interest in the dynamics of income and consumption at the household level has increased in the developing countries as measures of living conditions at a point in time are not necessarily a good indicator of its stability over time. For many purposes it is important to adopt a dynamic perspective, distinguishing between extremely, chronically or transitory poor. In Pakistan studies of poverty at a point in time provide very valuable information about its nature, characteristics and distribution. However, given the fluctuations in many dimensions of poverty such as school enrolment, nutritional status and income, these studies are unable to capture the dynamics of this phenomenon, making it impossible to analyse the factors associated with the poverty transition, i.e., movement into and out of poverty.
Regional (East-West/North-South) Cooperation and Peter Singer’s Ethics of Globalisation (The Mahbub-ul-Haq Memorial Lecture)
Authors: M. Ali Khan
Published: August 2018

I open Peter Singer’s One World: The Ethics of Globalization to a ‘local’ and a ‘global’ text, and am thereby led to argue that problems of poverty, inequality, governance, corruption, transparency, tolerance, growth and welfare, and more generally of justice and freedom, be they economic or political, are not the monopoly or ward of a particular region, packages to be pried open by the language of economic theory alone. They rather demand an acknowledgement that an economy is also a society, a polity, a community, a collectivity in short; and a conceptual recognition by agents, albeit embodied with their own needs and desires, that is correspondingly capacious. Thus, to move beyond conception to fruition, theory, of necessity, can hardly ignore values garnered from the past, ethics, and therefore texts, local to the collectivity, that make its past come alive.
Economic Growth and Development in South Asia, with and without Regional Cooperation (The Jawaid Azfar Memorial Lecture)
Authors: S. M. Naseem
Published: August 2018

I thank the PSDE for inviting me to deliver this plenary lecture at its 20th AGM belatedly honouring the memory of a personal friend and colleague, Jawaid Azfar, who passed away more than twenty years ago. Jawaid’s premature demise robbed Pakistan of one of its most promising economists and planners and created a vacuum in the intellectual leadership of Pakistan’s once proud economic planning and management team, which is still a gaping hole. Jawaid Azfar received his academic training in economics at Cambridge and Harvard Universities and his doctorate dissertation on income distribution in Pakistan was a seminal piece of work which inspired many other studies focusing on aspects of equity which were ignored by the earlier planners in Pakistan.1 My own two studies on poverty in Pakistan published in the 1970s benefited greatly from the methodology and insights of his study.2 While teaching at the Quaid-i-Azam University, I worked as a Consultant to the Planning Commission on macroeconomic model building, in close collaboration and almost daily interaction with him. Jawaid also agreed to my request to help in teaching courses at the University and acted as an external examiner on many occasions. Jawaid was a quiet, shy person whose low-key manner concealed his considerable intellectual depth. He died tragically at a young age of stroke due to extreme pressure of work imposed on him by his many demanding bosses who relied on his expertise to push their own self-serving agendas during the first half of Gen. Ziaul Haq’s 11-year military rule.
In Search of Poverty Predictors: The Case of Urban and Rural Pakistan
Authors: Haroon Jamal
Published: August 2018

The main objective of this research is to provide correlates of household consumption or poverty using the latest household survey. The estimated coefficients and their weights may be used to predict poverty incidence from light monitoring survey such as Core Welfare Indicator Questionnaire (CWIQ). The CWIQ survey instrument essentially collects simple welfare indicators from a large segment of population and is not designed to measure income, consumption or expenditure. The paper estimates consumption functions separately for urban and rural areas. These functions are estimatedwith the help of non-monetary correlates of consumption and applied to predict poverty at provincial and district levels. The paper also provides the latest estimates of poverty in the country using a consistent methodology. Overall, 33 percent people were poor, according to estimates from the latest available household survey of 2001-02. Incidence, depth, and severity of poverty are high in rural areas, as compared to their urban counterpart.
The Primary Sectors of the Economy and the Dutch Disease in Nigeria
Authors: J. O. Olusi  , M. A. Olagunju
Published: August 2018

This study examines whether the Dutch Disease—a resource boom leading to the decline of the erstwhile tradable sector—is present in Nigeria in the light of the rejection of the Dutch Disease thesis in other studies on Nigeria. Quarterly data for our variables of interest were predominantly sourced from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF. The data are analysed through the use of vector autoregressive (VAR) modelling consisting of impulse response functions and variance decomposition analyses. Our results show that the Dutch Disease was diagnosed, albeit, as a delayed occurrence. This suggests that the government should lay more emphasis on the agricultural sector hitherto not given deserved attention.
Regulatory Changes and Productivity of the Banking Sector in the Indian Sub-continent
Authors: Shabbar Jaffry
Published: August 2018

Efficiency plays an important role in the operation of firms. If firms are pursing a policy of shareholder wealth maximisation, this implies that maximum efficiency is extracted from a firm’s resources during the production process, or that the minimum quantity of inputs is used to achieve a desired level of output. Studies on efficiency in firms have been relatively forthcoming and include work on technical efficiency in the Japanese manufacturing sector [Hitomi (2004)], the UKCS Petroleum Industry [Kashani (2005)] and labour efficiency of the Indian farming industry [Kumbhakar (1996)]. However, there is little in the way of research conducted on efficiency within the banking sector, and even less on the banking sectors of developing economies [Berger and Humphry (1997)]. This is unfortunate, as banks and financial institutions are the most important organisations in overall financial intermediation and economic acceleration of a country. Banks play a significant role in converting deposits into productive investment [Podder and Mamun (2004)]. For this reason, the study of banking in developing economies entails a greater significance.
Efficiency Wage Hypothesis—The Case of Pakistan
Authors: Syed Kanwar Abbas
Published: August 2018

The goal of this section is to point out the observed difficulties with the classical/neoclassical theory of labour markets. According to classical and neoclassical economics, the labour market is a market like any other market. The equilibrium wage is determined by the intersection of the supply and demand for labour.
Trade Liberalisation and Labour Demand Elasticities: Empirical Evidence for Pakistan
Authors: Bushra Yasmin
Published: August 2018

Trade has predominantly contributed in the development of world economies for more than mere agricultural development and industrialisation. Trade involves many regions across the globe. The more the regions involved, the more will be the benefits. Trade is an interaction between economies for the exchange of goods, services, skills, knowledge and expertise, which is required for bringing in the desired changes like increase in the availability of choices, reduction of extreme poverty, and enhancement of physical and mental capability. As the wave of market oriented moves has spread over the economic sphere, global trend has also been witnessed in the liberalisation of capital account, foreign exchange, credit, domestic consumption and trading sector of many countries. The concept, which has been predominantly emphasised by the economies, is that of “trade liberalisation”, which has become the key element of any development policy since late 1970s after the fundamental change in the economic policy at global level. The concept of trade liberalisation stems from Neo-liberalism thinking that has advocated market oriented economic reforms for social order and economic prosperity that aims to improve efficiency and stability in the economy. Trade liberalisation process can be defined in many different ways. In the words of Krueger (1978), “any policy, which reduces the anti export bias will lead towards liberalisation of trade and reduction in import license premium is the fundamental step towards liberalised trade regime”.
A Review of the Relationship between Poverty, Population Growth, and Environment
Authors: Seeme Malik  , Naghmana Ghani
Published: August 2018

Deterioration of natural resources during the past few decades has come to prominence as one of the most important current global issues [Desta (1999)]. Increase in population density in ecologically fragile areas and consumption of nonrenewable natural resources at high rates is seen as one of the leading causes of this deterioration [Grigg (1991)]. At present, in some of the developing countries, the pollution of air, water and soil has reached life-threatening levels [Gilbert (1991)]. In many of these countries population pressures, socio-political conditions and economic arrangements have resulted in massive natural resource depletion [Ahmed and Mallick (1999)]. In a developing country, poverty is the major factor that distorts the population transition in response to food supply [Aziz (2001)]. Pethe (1982) suggested that the best way to reduce poverty is to bring fundamental changes in society. The magnitude of this task can be seen readily, if we look at some of the basic dimensions of poverty [World Bank (1998)]:
Testing Onion Market Integration in Pakistan
Authors: Heman D. Lohano  , Fateh M Mari  , Rajab A Memon
Published: August 2018

Spatial market integration of agricultural products has been widely used to indicate overall market performance [Faminow and Benson (1990)]. In spatially integrated markets, competition among arbitragers will ensure that a unique equilibrium is achieved where local prices in regional markets differ by no more than transportation and transaction costs. Information of spatial market integration, thus, provides indication of competitiveness, the effectiveness of arbitrage, and the efficiency of pricing [Sexton, et al. (1991)]. If price changes in one market are fully reflected in alternative market, these markets are said to be spatially integrated [Goodwin and Schroeder (1991)]. Prices in spatially integrated markets are determined simultaneously in various locations, and information of any change in price in one market is transmitted to other markets [Gonzalez-Rivera and Helfand (2001)]. Markets that are not integrated may convey inaccurate price signal that might distort producers marketing decisions and contribute to inefficient product movement [Goodwin and Schroeder (1991)], and traders may exploit the market and benefit at the cost of producers and consumers. In more integrated markets, farmers specialise in production activities in which they are comparatively proficient, consumers pay lower prices for purchased goods, and society is better able to reap increasing returns from technological innovations and economies of scale [Vollrath (2003)].
Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Pakistan
Authors: Muhammad Arshad Khan  , Abdul Qayyum  , Saeed Ahmed Sheikh
Published: August 2018

The pioneering contributions of Goldsmith (1969), Mckinnon (1973) and Shaw (1973) regarding the relationship between financial development and economic growth has remained an important issue of debate in developing economies. The theoretical argument for linking financial development to growth is that a well-developed financial system performs several critical functions to enhance the efficiency of intermediation by reducing information, transaction, and monitoring costs. A modern financial system promotes investment by identifying and funding good business opportunities, mobilises savings, monitors the performance of managers, enables the trading, hedging, and diversification of risk, and facilitates the exchange of goods and services. These functions result in a more efficient allocation of resources, in a more rapid accumulation of physical and human capital, and in faster technological progress, which in turn feed economic growth [Creane, et al. (2004)].
Non-agricultural Market Access: A South Asian Perspective
Authors: A R Kemal  , Musleh-ud din
Published: August 2018

Despite the fact that the WTO has helped to reduce the overall level of tariffs with increased transparency, a majority of the developing countries with the capacity to increase exports of labour intensive manufactures continue to face significant barriers in accessing foreign markets. Tariff rates applied by the developed countries for textile and clothing and leather for instance are much higher than those on other manufacturing products such as electronics, computers and telecom equipment, thus indicating a clear discrimination against exports of the developing countries. Moreover, tariff peaks, tariff escalation, tariff rate quotas and other non-tariff measures including antidumping duties, countervailing duties, and safeguard measures to protect against serious injury from import surges, allowed under the WTO, have become major impediments to market access for developing countries exports.
The Demand for International Reserves: A Case Study of Pakistan
Authors: Karim Khan
Published: August 2018

Foreign exchange reserves have clear implications for exchange rate stability, financial markets, and hence, for overall economic activity. Stakeholders have different views about reserves holding. Some economists believe that foreign exchange reserves are useless and unutilised as Friedman (1953) criticised the fixed exchange rate system with the argument that it contains unutilised foreign exchange reserves. On the other hand, some economists argue that foreign exchange reserves should be there to smooth out the imbalances in balance of payments [see Kemal (2002)]. There is continuous debate about the need to hold reserves.1 The critics are worried about the cost of holding reserves. The cost of holding reserves is the investment that nations must forego in order to accumulate reserves. In contrast, the supporters of reserves holding argue that the cost of reserves holding is small compared to the economic consequences of exchange rate variations. For instance, a depreciation in the value of the currency, caused by either financial crises or others internal or external shocks, may raise a country’s costs of paying back debt denominated in foreign currency as well as its costs of imported items. Besides, it also creates high inflation expectations.
Beyond Planning and Mercantilism:An Evaluation of Pakistan’s Growth Strategy
Authors: Nadeem Ul Haque
Published: August 2018

“The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back”. John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946) The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, ch. 24 (1936)
Money, Inflation, and Growth in Pakistan
Authors: Abdul Qayyum
Published: August 2018

This paper attempts to investigate the linkage between the excess money supply growth and inflation in Pakistan and to test the validity of the monetarist stance that inflation is a monetary phenomenon. The results from the correlation analysis indicate that there is a positive association between money growth and inflation. The money supply growth at first-round affects real GDP growth and at the second round it affects inflation in Pakistan. The important finding from the analysis is that the excess money supply growth has been an important contributor to the rise in inflation in Pakistan during the study period, thus supporting the monetarist proposition that inflation in Pakistan is a monetary phenomenon. This may be due to the loose monetary policy adopted by the State Bank of Pakistan to show the high priority of the growth objective. The important policy implication is that inflation in Pakistan can be cured by a sufficiently tight monetary policy. The formulation of monetary policy must consider development in the real and financial sector and treat these sectors as constraints on the policy. JEL classification: E31, C22, C32 Keywords: Money Supply, Inflation, Growth, Quantity Theory, Monetary Policy, Pakistan
Stephen J. Glain. Mullahs, Merchants, and Militants: The Economic Collapse of the Arab World. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 2005. 350 pages. $25.95. Hardback.
Authors: Khaled Talhouni
Published: August 2018

In this book, Former Wall Street Journal reporter Stephen Glain sets out to answer an extremely broad and difficult question: namely why is it that the Arab world, specifically the Levantine region, has consistently underperformed economically since the beginning of the 20th century. The book provides the reader with a somewhat in-depth analysis of the political, social and economic state of six Arab nations (Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, the Palestinian territories, Egypt, and Iraq). By breaking down his analysis into country-specific chapters, Glain enables the reader to understand the multi-faceted problems facing the region as a whole. In doing so, Glain shows the reader a common thread of bad governance, corruption, negative external interference, and protectionism; the thread that runs through all these nations, causing economic decay.
Establishing Property Rights through a Secure System of Land Title Management
Authors: Shahid H. Kardar
Published: August 2018

Land is a critical economic asset in any economy. The need for a timely, accurate, safe, simple, secure, and universally accessible system of registering and recording land transactions and interest in land is the cornerstone of a proper land market. Such land markets are an important mechanism to empower the poor and reduce the costs of doing business.1 Secure property rights provide asset owners the incentive to invest in their property while allowing easier collateralisation. Without secure tradable property rights, land is ‘dead capital’.
Towards Good Governance: Developing an e-Government
Authors: Adeel Ghayur
Published: August 2018

Information and Communication Technologies (ICT), today, are seen as the miracle medicines for curing a nation from the ails of corruption, mismanagement, poor governance, inflation, monopolies, business stagnation, illiteracy and so on. One important aspect concerns development and implementation of ICTs for the EGovernance. E-Governance holds enormous potential in terms of improving service delivery and efficiency, better response to business and citizen needs, and provision of affordable government services. Defined as “Government’s use of technology, particularly web-based Internet applications, to enhance the access to and delivery of government information and service to citizens, business partners, employees, other agencies, and government entities [McClure (2000)]” or “the continuous optimisation of service delivery, constituency participation, and governance by transforming internal and external relationships through technology, the Internet, and new media [Gartner Group (2000)]”. The e-government makes it possible for a government’s different departments and organisations to have direct access to grassroots and vice-versa. It cuts down the costs and delivery times for the government and simultaneously becomes a tool for check and balances against the government. The e-government in short is a tool for good governance—transparency, participation, regulations and accountability.