PROJECTIONS AND CURRENT DYNAMICS IN THE INCIDENCE OF DISEASES OF THE CIRCULATION SYSTEM AMONG ADULTS IN RUSSIA AND THE FAR EASTERN FEDERAL DISTRICT
Authors:   Federal Center for Cardiovascular Surgery, Khabarovsk, Russia, Bogachevskaia Svetlana ,   Far Eastern State Medical University of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Khabarovsk, Russia, Kiselev Sergei ,   Far Eastern State Medical University of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation, Khabarovsk, Russia
Published: June 2024

Significance. The study analyzes dynamics in incidence of the most common socially significant pathology - diseases of the circulatory system in the Far Eastern Federal District and the Russian Federation as a whole with due regard to the territorial and economic prospects for the Far East development. The purpose of the study was to analyze incidence of diseases of the circulatory system and their individual types on the example of the Far Eastern Federal District and the Russian Federation as a whole, as well as to compare short-term and long-term projections and actual data. Material and methods. The study has undertaken a comparative analysis of the dynamics in predictive and actual indicators of the overall incidence and incidence of diseases of the circularity system and individual nosological forms over five-year and ten-year periods until 2021. The period of the coronavirus infection (COVID-19) pandemic has been separately analyzed. Results. In general, a more intensive increase in morbidity in the Russian Federation and the Far Eastern Federal District has been identified in comparison with the projected increase. For 5 years prior to 2019, the increase in the overall incidence of diseases of the circulatory system in the Russian Federation turned out to be almost 4 times higher than projected, while incidence was more than 2 times higher than projected. During the COVID-19 pandemic (from 2017 to 2021), the growth dynamics slowed down significantly, 2-fold exceeding the projected overall incidence and more than 1.5-fold the projected incidence. Such trends may be a consequence of the effective ongoing preventive measures aimed at early detection of diseases. Against this background, there is a decrease in the growth rate of the incidence of diseases of the circulatory system in the Russian Federation and the Far Eastern Federal District in the context of the pandemic of a new coronavirus infection. In the Far Eastern Federal District in 2017-2021, compared with the pre-pandemic period, there was a decrease in the overall incidence increase by 65.5% with the increase inversion in incidence. During the period including the pandemic, the Russian Federation and the Far Eastern Federal District registered a negative growth rate of the overall incidence and incidence of ischemic and cerebrovascular diseases. The noted decrease in the actual incidence rates of diseases of the circulatory system, which is not comparable with the projected trends, requires an analysis of causes of the change in the epidemiological situation under the influence of the COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusion and scope of application. In general, we suppose that a decrease in the growth rate in incidence indicators in the Russian Federation and the Far Eastern Federal District during the pandemic of a new coronavirus infection cannot have a long-term impact on epidemiological indicators of diseases of the circulatory system. However, it indicates the necessity to develop reserves of the healthcare system in order to prevent such situations in future.