bluuebunny/crossref_metadata_2025 huggingface dataset:
Overview of Research into the Coastal Effects of the Macondo Blowout from the Coastal Waters Consortium: A GoMRI Consortium
Authors: Hooper-Bui Linda M , Rabalais Nancy N , Engel Annette S , Turner R Eugene , McClenachan G , Roberts B , Overton Edward B , Justic Dubravko , Strudivant Kersey , Brown Ken , Conover Jennifer
Published: August 2014

The Coastal Waters Consortium (CWC) led by Louisiana Universities Marine Consortium is one of eight Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative research consortia. The CWC focuses on: oil transport and fate, chemical evolution and biological degradation, and environmental effects.The following is an overview of a portion of the research conducted within the consortium. The consortium works in a system that was impacted by the Deepwater Horizon oil disaster and additionally impacted by freshwater diversions resulting in changes in salinity, tropical storms, and hurricanes. First, we conducted model simulations assessing oil transport into the Barataria Bay estuary, which indicate that easterly winds and feeding of the anticyclonic gyre in the Louisiana Bight pushed the oil into Barataria Bay. In subtidal sediments adjacent to oiled marshes, marsh detritus from eroding marsh edges eventually became entrained in the sediment column.

Biotic impacts vary. The above-ground plant biomass appears healthy at the individual sampling sites; overall the most seaward (i.e., likely oil-impacted) areas of Terrebonne and Barataria Bay have shown, via satellite data, a distinct decline in marsh vegetation coverage since 2010. Oysters appear to be affected by predation and salinity variation.

Microbial diversity from marsh-edge sediments is distinct from before and after the spill, and between unoiled and oiled marshes, with lower diversity in oiled marshes; but the greatest community composition shifts are in marshes affected by the freshwater diversions. Changes in microbial diversity in the water column at the stream-side edge of oiled marshes are extensive and are related to marsh edge erosion. In contrast, oiling of marshes had no impact on ammonia oxidizer or denitrifier abundances and on soil biogeochemical process rates 2+ years post-spill. Analysis of long-term offshore phytoplankton community and hypoxia data indicate some signal of the Macondo oil, but these components of the ecosystem remain mostly influenced by the fresh water and nutrients delivered by the Mississippi River. The consortium continues to work to tease apart oil impacts, effects of salinity, natural variation, and disturbance from tropical storms and hurricanes to determine the trajectory for health of shelf waters and Louisiana's marshes.
Alaskan North Slope Legacy Wells: Case Study
Authors: Starsman Jessica , Adamczak Ashley , DeRuyter Tom
Published: August 2014

Various State of Alaska agencies, including the Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC), are currently investigating 136 legacy wells within the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska (NPR-A) and surrounding lands. These legacy wells were drilled between 1944 and 1981 by federal agencies, including the United States Navy and United States Geological Survey, to explore oil reserve potential and to develop drilling techniques for Alaska's arctic.

In 2004, 2010 and 2013 the Bureau of Land Management released preliminary studies describing potential environmental risks at each site. Many wells include historic reserve pits, flare pits, crude and diesel oil releases, and discarded solid waste. Tundra damage and potential residual contamination are of great concern. Due to their remote locations, information on the current status of waste is limited. Regulatory agencies are developing a cleanup plan that is appropriate for their remote, Arctic environment.
Quantifying Tradeoffs – Net Environmental Benefits of Dispersant Use
Authors: McCay Deborah French , Graham Eileen
Published: August 2014

Oil spill response often involves making decisions regarding dispersant usage; the potential tradeoffs of increasing exposure of water column biota to hydrocarbons in order to reduce surface and shoreline oiling needs to be carefully considered and justified. A modeling analysis using RPS ASA's Spill Impact Model Application Package (SIMAP) was performed to evaluate the likely water volume adversely affected by naturally- or chemically-dispersed oil, as well as the surface area impacted by floating oil, and summarized in guidance useful for response planners and decision-makers. Key inputs were varied: oil type, oil volume, environmental (e.g., wind speed, temperature) conditions, dispersant use, weathering state when dispersants are applied, and toxicity to aquatic biota. Model results, including water volume where acute toxic effects would occur and the area of water surface oiled (which would impact wildlife, as well as socioeconomic uses), are summarized in tabular form, as well as a software-tool for interpolation, to provide data for quantitative comparisons of tradeoffs. Findings show that for (effective) dispersant treatment of floating oil volumes up to 100,000 gal in a single location during a short period of time (<1 hr; e.g., by a dispersant plane sortie), the area of surface water where water column biota would be affected would be much less than that affected by floating oil thick enough to directly affect wildlife. Thus, even if large volumes of oil are dispersed, a net environmental benefit may be achieved due to reduction or prevention of exposure to floating and shoreline oil, especially if the dispersant applications are over a wide area or over time.
Multi-stakeholder Marine Risk Assessments in Alaska: Updates from Cook Inlet and the Aleutian Islands
Authors: Fletcher Sierra , Pearson Leslie , Robertson Tim
Published: August 2014

Marine risk assessments are underway for two operating areas of Alaska: one focuses on the most populated region of Alaska and the other on a much more remote area. Both assessments involve a combination of technical analysis and input based on the values and experiences of diverse stakeholders. Collectively, they represent the first implementation of a multi-stakeholder risk assessment process recommended in 2008 by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) of the U.S. National Academies.

The Aleutian Islands Risk Assessment (AIRA) has been underway since 2009, with a total budget of $3 million from the 2004 M/V Selendang Ayu grounding and oil spill settlement funds. A similar, though smaller, risk assessment was initiated for Cook Inlet in 2011. The Cook Inlet Risk Assessment (CIRA) has a total budget of $900,000. Both assessments seek to identify and evaluate risk reduction options to minimize the risk of oil spills from vessels of 300 GT or larger, or those with at least 10,000 gallons of fuel capacity.

Both projects are being conducted under the guidance of a small Management Team. The Alaska Department of Environmental Conservation and U.S. Coast Guard sit on both Management Teams. The other Management Team members represent the additional relevant funding agencies: for Cook Inlet, this is the Cook Inlet Regional Citizens' Advisory Council (managing part of the funding for this project) and for the Aleutian Islands this is the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation (managing the funds for this project). For each project, there is also a larger Advisory Panel, comprised of representatives of diverse and critical interests in each region, including the shipping and fisheries industries, local government, state and federal agencies, and environmental organizations. Advisory Panel members are selected by the Management team based on their local knowledge, expertise and understanding of the risk posed by the maritime transportation industry. Opportunities for public comment and engagement are provided, along with websites housing all project documents. There is also a Peer Review Panel for the AIRA project.

Though the AIRA and CIRA are still underway, this paper provides an update on the wide ranging risk reduction options being considered, the types of technical analyses done and, how these analyses have informed project direction and decision-making, and preliminary observations related to the approaches used.
Evaluating Place of Refuge Risk in the Chesapeake Bay
Authors: Shupe Danielle , Ott Gary , Preble Kristen
Published: August 2014

Worldwide, several tank ships have suffered structural failures at sea and shipping agents were unable to convince port stakeholders to provide the vessel a Place of Refuge. These situations resulted in catastrophic environmental damage to coastal states. They also highlighted the need for better Place of Refuge guidance to address both real and perceived risk within the port community. In coordination with the International Maritime Organization and the National Response Team, the U.S. Coast Guard established policies that encourage risk-based planning and decision-making to assist stakeholders in evaluating risks. The Coast Guard policy included a risk evaluation job aid to facilitate planning and serve as a response tool for a port faced with a Place of Refuge request from a stricken vessel. The Port Community of Hampton Roads continued this planning effort through the Area Committee. A “Steering Committee” was established and charged with drafting a Place of Refuge annex to the Virginia Area Contingency Plan. Port Community involvement was achieved through a series of workshops held by the Steering Committee. The workshop objectives were successfully met by reviewing historic local case studies, identifying critical stakeholders and working through the Places of Refuge process using the job aid. The Place of Refuge annex outlines the process used to communicate risk to stakeholders within the human health and safety, environmental and economic communities, with the goal of achieving consensus on a Place of Refuge decision. This paper will expand on the steps that led to the development of the Place of Refuge Plan and some of the key lessons learned regarding risk assessment and risk communication in the Port of Hampton Roads.
THE GROWTH IN ENERGY ACTIVITIES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA – ARE WE TRULY PREPARED?
Authors: Tan Yoppy
Published: August 2014

Stretching from Singapore and the Strait of Malacca chokepoint in the southwest to the Strait of Taiwan in the northeast, the South China Sea is one of the most important energy trade routes in the world. Almost a third of global crude oil and over half of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) passes through the South China Sea each year. Coupled with the significant economy growth from China, that is the world's largest oil importer, protecting the flow of oil becomes a prime consideration of the South East and East Asia governments. All of these factors make the South China Sea to hold one of the highest potential for oil spill, be it by quantity of oil or frequency of energy activities.

In the region, our industry faces increasing political challenge due to the disputed territorial waters and hence if an incident affecting multiple countries such as an oil spill occurs, the response may be chaotic if not adequately prepared for. The duty is on industry to work with regional governmental groups to promote joined-up response that is sufficiently robust and flexible to deal with both marine and well-control incidents.

Other factors that could pose a major challenge are the understanding of response tool kits and prioritization given to national environmental laws and regulations which will vary amongst the affected administrations. Has there been sufficient investigation into the range of national laws which could help/hinder inter-regional approach? What about each of the area contingency plan along the South China Sea? Is there sufficient data on the crude oil characteristics in this region and the availability of Stockpile of equipment along this stretch of the trade route?

This paper provides an overview of the oil industry's response to the growing energy activities in the South China Sea using case studies to illustrate the situations that are still occurring in practice.
Oil Spill Response Capability Building in China and Her Road Map
Authors: Cheng Jin Xiang , Zhang Chun Chang , Xu Hong Lei , Wang Shou Dong
Published: August 2014

In recent decades, China's strong economic development has brought higher risk of oil spill at sea from ships, oil exploration and land. Accordingly, China government has enacted some new laws and policies such as the compulsory requirements on certain ships calling Chinese ports enter into a preparedness and response contract with a pre-approved response organization, up to now, there are already 137 private oil spill response organizations along the coastline. Also, the port operators are required to invest on oil spill response equipments depending on the result of risk assessment. At the same time, the central government has invested more 20 stockpiles along the sea port and Yangzi River. Nowadays, the amount of clean-up equipments has reached to a historical high level, and the total investment in recent three years is near ten times more than those ten years ago. Therefore, scientific evaluation of the risk and its spatial distribution of oil spill, and development of the reasonable and effective oil spill response capability planning, are the major demands for marine environmental risk management in China. To solve the issues above, a model with oil spill risk evaluation and multi-objective response resources layout is proposed for multi–sources risk. Hopefully, the model will be used to develop the national plan for National Contingency Plan for oil spill capability building in China.
A NATIONAL REVIEW OF AUSTRALIA'S MARITIME ENVIRONMENTAL EMERGENCY RESPONSE ARRANGEMENTS
Authors: Storrie Jamie
Published: August 2014

Australia's National Plan for Maritime Environmental Emergencies (‘the National Plan’) is a cooperative national strategy for the preparing, responding and recovering from maritime casualty and marine pollution incidents. A review of the National Plan was conducted between 2011 and 2012 following a series of shipping and offshore petroleum incidents which presented the most significant challenges to National Plan since its inception in 1973.

The Review incorporated two streams of work – a national risk assessment modelled the current and 10 year outlook of the marine pollution threat to Australia and a capability analysis, involving consultation with over 90 stakeholder groups, identified areas for improvement in national preparedness.

Forty-seven recommendations were forthcoming from the review including:Implementing a modern governance model for the National Plan, clarifying responsibilities and providing for the formal engagement of stakeholders.Alignment of planning and response systems with mainstream emergency services to improve the national response capability.Implementing a single response arrangement for maritime casualty and oil and chemical pollution.Addressing gaps in capability, including the development of a national chemical response capability, nationally accredited training and succession planning for the National Response Team.

This paper describes the conduct of the Review, the significant outcomes for Australia's preparedness and the ongoing program to embed these outcomes into all levels of response planning in Australia.
An Assessment of the Increasing Risk of Marine Oil Spills and the Existing Preparedness Capabilities in the Southeast Asian Region
Authors: Varghese Geeva
Published: August 2014

A rapidly growing economy has pushed the energy demands and has significantly increased the exploration and production activities as well as the shipping traffic over recent years in the Southeast Asian Region. Since the introduction of offshore exploration and production in the 1960's, Southeast Asia has gone through a remarkable transition from an onshore to an offshore focused region with more than 80% of oil production coming from offshore fields in 2011. Also the region has recently moved into deepwater exploration and production activities which now makes up more than 10% of the offshore production. With the rising production volumes, the transport of oil products has continuously increased both in volume and in number of ships used. This trend is expected to grow further with the investment in new refinery capacity of several Southeast Asian countries. All these factors have significantly contributed to the increased risk of marine spill incidents in the region.

An increased risk of oil spills necessitates an increase in the capability to respond and manage major oil spill incidents. Even though the Southeast Asian region has made some notable progress over the past few decades in terms of oil spill preparedness and response, the region's capabilities are arguably less mature compared to other parts of the world. Most of the countries in the region have been successful in establishing the elements of preparedness advocated by the OPRC (International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness Response and Cooperation) convention. But recent spill incidents and preparedness work in the region have revealed a need for greater collaboration between the government and industry stakeholders from oil, shipping and port industries, planning and preparing of major trans-boundary oil spill incidents and alignment of oil spill preparedness and response system of a country from the national to provincial level.

This paper examines the increasing risks of oil spills from the growing vessel traffic and exploration and production activities in Southeast Asia against the current level of preparedness in the region. In doing so, the author will share the experience gained from working on various oil spill response planning and preparedness projects with the Governments and industry in the region with lessons learned, current developments and recommendation for improvements.
Simulating the Behaviour and Fate of an Oil Spill Using a Coupled Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Model
Authors: Stronach James A. , Hospital Aurelien
Published: August 2014

Oil behavior and fate have been simulated extensively by several spill models. These simulations can be greatly enhanced by the use of a coupled three-dimensional model of currents and water properties to determine oil transport and weathering, both on the water surface and in the water column. Several physical and chemical processes such as vertical dispersion in response to wave action, resurfacing when waves die down, sinking through loss of volatiles and dissolution are essential in assessing the impact of an oil spill on the environment. Dissolution is especially important, considering the known toxicity of several of the constituents of liquid hydrocarbons. For this study, a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model of coastal British Columbia was coupled to an oil trajectory and weathering model in order to simulate the complete fate and behaviour of surface, shoreline-retained, dissolved, sunken and dispersed oil. Utilization of a three-dimensional model is the key to adequately modelling the transport of a spill in an estuarine region such as in the Strait of Georgia, B.C., where the distribution of currents and water properties is strongly affected by estuarine processes: the Fraser River enters at the surface and oceanic waters from the Pacific enter as a deep inflow.

Three-dimensional currents and water properties were provided by the hydrodynamic model, H3D, a semi-implicit model using a staggered Arakawa grid and variable number of layers in the vertical direction to resolve near-surface processes. Waves were simulated using the wave model SWAN. Winds were obtained from the local network of coastal light stations and wind buoys. Stochastic modelling was conducted first, using only surface currents, to determine probabilistic maps of the oil trajectory on water and statistical results were extracted, such as the amount of shoreline oiled and the amount of oil evaporated, both for the ensemble of simulations constituting the stochastic simulation, as well as for any particular individual simulation. Deterministic scenarios were then selected and the fate of the oil, such as the dissolved and sunken fractions, was tracked over a 14 day period on the three-dimensional grid. This method has been used for environmental impact assessment and spill response planning.
FROM BLOWOUT TO BEACH: AN INTEGRATED MODELING APPROACH
Authors: Chapman Piers , Socolofsky Scott , Hetland Robert
Published: August 2014

As part of the response to the BP Deepwater Horizon spill in 2010, we have been funded by the Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative to construct a nested model suite that can follow an oil particle from its first release to its arrival on a shoreline, taking into account natural rates of mixing and degradation of the oil components. The model suite incorporates (at increasing levels of resolution) a coupled ocean-atmosphere model of the full Gulf of Mexico and North Atlantic Ocean, a deep Gulf of Mexico model, a regional model of the Texas-Louisiana shelf, a 3D, non-hydrostatic bay model, a 3D Navier-Stokes model of the spill plume, and a particle tracking and transformation model for dispersed and dissolved oil and gas fate and transport integrated within the full flow domain. The models are supported by a series of laboratory and field experiments, including studies of single droplets, with and without dispersant, plumes, a deep-sea tracer release experiment and bubble releases to simulate an underwater blowout. The laboratory experiments will improve modeling of small-scale, near-field processes such as bubble and droplet formation, dissolution, droplet-turbulence interaction, and evaporation and dispersion at the air-sea interface. We show how the models are linked and how we are making progress towards the complete nested model suite, which will be available for use in future spills.
Anisotropic turbulence and Rossby waves in an easterly jet: An experimental study
Authors: Galperin Boris , Hoemann Jesse , Espa Stefania , Nitto Gabriella Di
Published: August 2014

A westward propagating jet is investigated experimentally. The focus is on complex interaction between anisotropic turbulence with inverse energy cascade and Rossby waves. The energy spectrum is highly anisotropic. To diagnose turbulence characteristics, we explore the analogy between turbulent overturns in stably stratified and quasi‐geostrophic flows and develop a novel method based upon the monotonizing of potential vorticity (PV). The RMS displacement from the monotonic PV profile yields a length scale, LM, analogous to the Thorpe's scale used in flows with stable stratification. As the Thorpe scale is proportional to the Ozmidov scale, the scale LM is proportional to the scale Lβ at which the time scales of turbulent overturns and Rossby waves are approximately equal. The relationship between LM and Lβ is established here for the first time. The method of PV monotonizing offers a simple and powerful tool for diagnosing geophysical and planetary macroturbulence.
Streamflow sensitivity to drought scenarios in catchments with different geology
Authors: Stoelzle Michael , Stahl Kerstin , Morhard Andreas , Weiler Markus
Published: August 2014

Streamflow drought response depends to a large degree on groundwater recharge. To better predict and preempt streamflow droughts, the relationship between recharge deficit and streamflow response needs to be studied more systematically. We present a combined soil‐vegetation‐atmosphere transfer and conceptual groundwater model experiment that applies a novel set of recharge scenarios preceding drought events in humid‐temperate catchments with different dominant aquifer types. The recharge scenarios are based on the permutation of historical time series and on modified time series matching extreme (50 year) drought events. Karstic and fractured aquifers show short‐term sensitivity to drought with an event‐specific relationship between recharge and streamflow response. Porous and complex aquifers show long‐term sensitivity and a more catchment‐controlled propagation of drought. The sensitivity of drought deficit and recovery time correlates with the water age distribution in baseflow, which is trackable in the groundwater model and a characteristic that should be exploited to improve streamflow drought prediction.
The importance of storm time steady magnetospheric convection in determining the final relativistic electron flux level
Authors: Kissinger Jennifer , Kepko Larry , Baker Daniel N. , Kanekal Shri , Li Wen , McPherron Robert L. , Angelopoulos Vassilis
Published: August 2014

Relativistic electrons pose a space weather hazard to satellites in the radiation belts. Although about half of all geomagnetic storms result in relativistic electron flux enhancements, other storms decrease relativistic electron flux, even under similar solar wind drivers. Radiation belt fluxes depend on a complex balance between transport, loss, and acceleration. A critically important aspect of radiation belt enhancements is the role of the “seed” population—plasma sheet particles heated and transported earthward by magnetotail processes—which can become accelerated by wave‐particle interactions with chorus waves. While the effect of substorms on seed electron injections has received considerable focus, in this study we present a previously unexplored connection between quasi‐steady convection during steady magnetospheric convection (SMC) events and the transport and energization of electrons. SMC events are long‐duration intervals of enhanced convection without any substorm expansions and are an important mechanism in coupling magnetotail plasma populations to the inner magnetosphere. We find that storms with SMCs in the recovery phase are more likely to increase relativistic electron flux levels, while storms without SMCs are more likely to result in a decrease. Using particle measurements from the Time History of Events and Macroscale Interactions During Substorms mission, we show that phase space density of seed electron populations increases 1 h before SMC start and stays elevated through the duration of SMCs. Chorus activity is also elevated during SMC events. These results suggest that rather than hindering electron acceleration by diverting plasma away from the inner magnetosphere, SMC events appear to act to enhance and maintain seed electron populations.
A simultaneous study of ionospheric parameters derived from FORMOSAT‐3/COSMIC, GRACE, and CHAMP missions over middle, low, and equatorial latitudes: Comparison with ionosonde data
Authors: Habarulema John Bosco , Katamzi Zama Thobeka , Yizengaw Endawoke
Published: August 2014

Accurate ionospheric modeling efforts are partly restricted by lack of enough reliable ground‐based data and the inability to validate the existing space‐based data. In this article, we present a first time comprehensive reliability and validation check of ionospheric data derived using the GPS Radio Occultation (RO) Technique (from three separate missions: FORMOSAT‐3/COSMIC, GRACE, and CHAMP) by comparing RO data with ionosonde data for low‐latitude, equatorial, and midlatitude stations, simultaneously. This paper discusses two main objectives: (a) Determination of the appropriate spatial resolutions for effective RO and ionosonde data comparisons and (b) Estimating the accuracy of the ionospheric parameters derived from RO missions with respect to ionosonde data within the African sector. For the first time, ionospheric parameters retrieved from RO data have been compared (in details) to ionosonde data over the African sector, specifically for the South African midlatitude stations Grahamstown, GR13L (33.3°S, 26.5°E), and Madimbo, MU12K (22.4°S, 30.9°E). For the equatorial and low‐latitude regions, data for Fortaleza FZA0M (3.8°S, 38°W), Brazil, and Ascension Islands AS00Q (7.9°S, 14.4°W) was analyzed. A simple but important method to determine the latitudinal and longitudinal range to be used in comparison with ionosonde data has been established. Based on statistical analysis, it is found that 4.5°×4.5°, 3°×3°, and 4°×4° are the approximate suitable spatial resolutions in both latitude and longitude spaces over an ionosonde station for effective comparisons for midlatitude, low‐latitude, and equatorial regions, respectively. Appropriate spatial coverage for effective comparisons vary with region and therefore a constant assumption should not be applied on regional/global basis especially if the studies/investigations or modeling extends from middle to low/equatorial latitude zones. For the three latitude regions, COSMIC overestimates the maximum height of the F2 layer (hmF2) and underestimates the maximum electron densities. These results provide a step‐by‐step basis and motivation for the usage of RO data in ionospheric modeling (especially for models which give average conditions) and characterisation over regions that do not have sufficient ground‐based instruments/data.
Comparison of GCM‐ and RCM‐simulated precipitation following stochastic postprocessing
Authors: Eden Jonathan M. , Widmann Martin , Maraun Douglas , Vrac Mathieu
Published: August 2014

In order to assess to what extent regional climate models (RCMs) yield better representations of climatic states than general circulation models (GCMs), the output of each is usually directly compared with observations. RCM output is often bias corrected, and in some cases correction methods can also be applied to GCMs. This leads to the question of whether bias‐corrected RCMs perform better than bias‐corrected GCMs. Here the first results from such a comparison are presented, followed by discussion of the value added by RCMs in this setup. Stochastic postprocessing, based on Model Output Statistics (MOS), is used to estimate daily precipitation at 465 stations across the United Kingdom between 1961 and 2000 using simulated precipitation from two RCMs (RACMO2 and CCLM) and, for the first time, a GCM (ECHAM5) as predictors. The large‐scale weather states in each simulation are forced toward observations. The MOS method uses logistic regression to model precipitation occurrence and a Gamma distribution for the wet day distribution, and is cross validated based on Brier and quantile skill scores. A major outcome of the study is that the corrected GCM‐simulated precipitation yields consistently higher validation scores than the corrected RCM‐simulated precipitation. This seems to suggest that, in a setup with postprocessing, there is no clear added value by RCMs with respect to downscaling individual weather states. However, due to the different ways of controlling the atmospheric circulation in the RCM and the GCM simulations, such a strong conclusion cannot be drawn. Yet the study demonstrates how challenging it is to demonstrate the value added by RCMs in this setup.
Robust changes and sources of uncertainty in the projected hydrological regimes of Swiss catchments
Authors: Addor Nans , Rössler Ole , Köplin Nina , Huss Matthias , Weingartner Rolf , Seibert Jan
Published: August 2014

Projections of discharge are key for future water resources management. These projections are subject to uncertainties, which are difficult to handle in the decision process on adaptation strategies. Uncertainties arise from different sources such as the emission scenarios, the climate models and their postprocessing, the hydrological models, and the natural variability. Here we present a detailed and quantitative uncertainty assessment, based on recent climate scenarios for Switzerland (CH2011 data set) and covering catchments representative for midlatitude alpine areas. This study relies on a particularly wide range of discharge projections resulting from the factorial combination of 3 emission scenarios, 10–20 regional climate models, 2 postprocessing methods, and 3 hydrological models of different complexity. This enabled us to decompose the uncertainty in the ensemble of projections using analyses of variance (ANOVA). We applied the same modeling setup to six catchments to assess the influence of catchment characteristics on the projected streamflow, and focused on changes in the annual discharge cycle. The uncertainties captured by our setup originate mainly from the climate models and natural climate variability, but the choice of emission scenario plays a large role by the end of the 21st century. The contribution of the hydrological models to the projection uncertainty varied strongly with catchment elevation. The discharge changes were compared to the estimated natural decadal variability, which revealed that a climate change signal emerges even under the lowest emission scenario (RCP2.6) by the end of the century. Limiting emissions to RCP2.6 levels would nevertheless reduce the largest regime changes by the end of the century by approximately a factor of two, in comparison to impacts projected for the high emission scenario SRES A2. We finally show that robust regime changes emerge despite the projection uncertainty. These changes are significant and are consistent across a wide range of scenarios and catchments. We propose their identification as a way to aid decision making under uncertainty.
The Counterintuitive Relationship between Conceptual and Perceptual Similarities and Eyewitness Suggestibility
Authors: Levy‐Gigi Einat , Vakil Eli
Published: August 2014

The tendency to confuse witnessed and suggested information can result in inaccurate eyewitness testimonies and convictions of innocent people. Studies that tested how similarities between witnessed and suggested information affect the tendency to confuse them reached inconsistent results. Here, we claim that there is a more complex and not necessarily linear relationship between similarity and memory distortions. Participants (164) viewed two subsequent stories, which varied in the conceptual and perceptual similarities between them. We found a significant interaction between conceptual and perceptual similarities. When we presented two conceptually different stories, perceptual similarity increased the suggestibility effect compared with perceptual dissimilarity. Conversely, when we presented two conceptually similar stories, perceptual similarity decreased suggestibility compared with perceptual dissimilarity. Accordingly, we suggest that similarity between two events may increase the suggestibility effect. However, counter‐intuitively, once similarity reaches a certain threshold, the coherence level between the events reduces the tendency to confuse them. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Sedentary Behavior and Physical Function: Objective Evidence From the Osteoarthritis Initiative
Authors: Lee Jungwha , Chang Rowland W. , Ehrlich‐Jones Linda , Kwoh C. Kent , Nevitt Michael , Semanik Pamela A. , Sharma Leena , Sohn Min‐Woong , Song Jing , Dunlop Dorothy D.
Published: August 2014

Objective

Investigate the relationship between sedentary behavior and physical function in adults with knee osteoarthritis (OA), controlling for moderate–vigorous physical activity (MVPA) levels.

Methods

Sedentary behavior was objectively measured by accelerometer on 1,168 participants ages 49–83 years in the Osteoarthritis Initiative with radiographic knee OA at the 48‐month clinic visit. Physical function was assessed using 20‐meter walk and chair stand testing. Sedentary behavior was identified by accelerometer activity counts/minute <100. The cross‐sectional association between sedentary quartiles and physical function was examined by multiple linear regression, adjusting for demographic factors (age, sex, race/ethnicity, education level), health factors (comorbidity, body mass index, knee pain, knee OA severity, presence of knee symptoms), and average daily MVPA minutes.

Results

Adults with knee OA spent two‐thirds of their daily time in sedentary behavior. The average gait speed among the most sedentary quartile was 3.88 feet/second, which was significantly slower than the speed of the less sedentary groups (4.23, 4.33, and 4.33 feet/second, respectively). The average chair stand rate among the most sedentary group was significantly lower (25.9 stands/minute) than the rates of the less sedentary behavior groups (28.9, 29.1, and 31.1 stands/minute, respectively). These trends remained significant in multivariable analyses adjusted for demographic factors, health factors, and average daily MVPA minutes.

Conclusion

Being less sedentary was related to better physical function in adults with knee OA independent of MVPA time. These findings support guidelines to encourage adults with knee OA to decrease time spent in sedentary behavior in order to improve physical function.
18.45%‐Efficient Multi‐Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells with Novel Nanoscale Pseudo‐Pyramid Texture
Authors: Ye Xiaoya , Zou Shuai , Chen Kexun , Li Jianjiang , Huang Jie , Cao Fang , Wang Xusheng , Zhang Lingjun , Wang Xue‐Feng , Shen Mingrong , Su Xiaodong
Published: August 2014

Silicon‐based cells could convert more solar energy to electrical energy if the cells could absorb more light. However, the nanostructured cells have demonstrated relatively low power conversion efficiency even when its reflection is very low; thus, they are still far from becoming real products of the photovoltaic industry. Here, nanoscale pseudo‐pyramid textured multi‐crystalline silicon (Pmc‐Si) solar cells, with the best efficiency of ≈18.45%, are fabricated by using a metal‐catalyzed chemical etching plus a post alkaline etching on an industrial production line. Such Pmc‐Si solar cells have showed similar light trapping ability as single crystalline silicon solar cells of micrometer pyramid texture, and the improved efficiency is mainly ascribed to its enhanced light absorption while the nanostructured surface still keeps acceptable passivation quality, that is, the short‐circuit current density has an increase of ≈300 mA cell–1, while the open‐circuit voltage has only a slight decrease of ≈1 mV. Further elevations of the efficiency are expected by optimizing both micrometer‐ and nanotextures, and exploring more effective passivation technique. More excitingly, the technique presented here has been verified in the production line for several batches as a real technique of low cost and high efficiency.
Single Ho3+‐Doped Upconversion Nanoparticles for High‐Performance T2‐Weighted Brain Tumor Diagnosis and MR/UCL/CT Multimodal Imaging
Authors: Ni Dalong , Bu Wenbo , Zhang Shengjian , Zheng Xiangpeng , Li Ming , Xing Huaiyong , Xiao Qingfeng , Liu Yanyan , Hua Yanqing , Zhou Liangping , Peng Weijun , Zhao Kuaile , Shi Jianlin
Published: August 2014

Multimodal bio‐imaging has attracted great attention for early and accurate diagnosis of tumors, which, however, suffers from the intractable issues such as complicated multi‐step syntheses for composite nanostructures and interferences among different modalities like fluorescence quenching by MRI contrast agents (e.g., magnetic iron oxide NPs). Herein, the first example of T2‐weighted MR imaging of Ho3+‐doped upconversion nanoparticles (UCNPs) is presented, which, very attractively, could also be simultaneously used for upconversion luminesence (UCL) and CT imaging, thus enabling high performance multi‐modal MRI/UCL/CT imagings in single UCNPs. The new finding of T2‐MRI contrast enhancement by integrated sensitizer (Yb3+) and activator (Ho3+) in UCNPs favors accurate MR diagnosis of brain tumor and provides a new strategy for acquiring T2‐MRI/optical imaging without fluorescence quenching. Unlike other multi‐phased composite nanostructures for multimodality imaging, this Ho3+‐doped UCNPs are featured with simplicity of synthesis and highly efficient multimodal MRI/UCL/CT imaging without fluorescence quenching, thus simplify nanostructure and probe preparation and enable win–win multimodality imaging.
Generation of Ethynyl‐Grignard Reagent in a Falling Film Microreactor: An Expeditious Flow Synthesis of Propargylic Alcohols and Analogues
Authors: Deng Qiulin , Shen Ruwei , Ding Rong , Zhang Lixiong
Published: August 2014

We report a falling film microreactor (FFMR) based gas‐liquid continuous microflow process, which features an efficient gas‐liquid reaction in a microreactor for the generation of the ethynyl‐Grignard reagent directly from acetylene gas and ethylmagnesium bromide (EtMgBr). The successful implement of this process leads to an expeditious flow synthesis of propargylic alcohols and analogues with high selectivity.

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Normalization of elevated cardiac, kidney, and hemolysis plasma markers within 48 h in Mexican Tarahumara runners following a 78 km race at moderate altitude
Authors: Christensen Dirk L. , Espino Diana , Infante‐Ramírez Rocío , Brage Soren , Terzic Dijana , Goetze Jens P. , Kjaergaard Jesper
Published: August 2014

Objectives

The aim of this study was to examine to what extent extreme endurance exercise results in changes of plasma markers associated with cardiac and renal damage, as well as hemolysis in male, Mexican Tarahumara runners.

Methods

Ten Tarahumara runners (mean (sd) age of 38 (12) years) participated in a 78 km race in Chihuahua, Mexico at 2,400 m above sea level. Cardiac, kidney, and hematology plasma markers were measured pre‐race and <5 min, 1 h, 3 h, 6 h, 24 h, and 48 h post‐race. Anthropometry, blood pressure, pulse rate, electrocardiography, HbA1c, hemoglobin and VO2max (estimated from heart rate following step test) were assessed pre‐race, while physical activity energy expenditure and intensity were estimated during the race, and oxygen partial pressure saturation (SpO2) <30 min post‐race.

Results

Estimated mean VO2max was 48 (9) mLO2 min−1 kg−1 and relative intensity during the race was 68 (11)%VO2max. Mean SpO2 was 92 (3)% <30 min post‐race. Plasma concentrations of especially total creatine kinase, creatine kinase‐MB isoform, and haptoglobin changed significantly from pre‐race values (P < 0.001) up to 24 h post‐race, but had returned to pre‐race values after 48 h. The plasma concentrations of mid‐regional proatrial natiuretic peptide and copeptin returned to pre‐race concentrations after 1 and 6 h, respectively.

Conclusions

Altered cardiac, renal, and hemolysis plasma markers were normalized after 48 h following 78 km of running, suggesting that the impact of exercise‐induced cardiac and kidney damage as well as hemolysis in the Mexican Tarahumara is low. Am. J. Hum. Biol. 26:836–843, 2014. © 2014 The Authors American Journal of Human Biology Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Intra‐ and interspecific variation in macaque molar enamel thickness
Authors: Kato Akiko , Tang Nancy , Borries Carola , Papakyrikos Amanda M. , Hinde Katie , Miller Ellen , Kunimatsu Yutaka , Hirasaki Eishi , Shimizu Daisuke , Smith Tanya M.
Published: August 2014

Enamel thickness has played an important role in studies of primate taxonomy, phylogeny, and functional morphology, although its variation among hominins is poorly understood. Macaques parallel hominins in their widespread geographic distribution, relative range of body sizes, and radiation during the last five million years. To explore enamel thickness variation, we quantified average and relative enamel thickness (AET and RET) in Macaca arctoides, Macaca fascicularis, Macaca fuscata, Macaca mulatta, Macaca nemestrina, and Macaca sylvanus. Enamel area, dentine area, and enamel‐dentine junction length were measured from mesial sections of 386 molars scanned with micro‐computed tomography, yielding AET and RET indices. Intraspecific sex differences were not found in AET or RET. Macaca fuscata had the highest AET and RET, M. fascicularis showed the lowest AET, and M. arctoides had the lowest RET. The latitudinal distribution of macaque species was associated with AET for these six species. Temperate macaques had thicker molar enamel than did tropical macaques, suggesting that thick enamel may be adaptive in seasonal environments. Additional research is needed to determine if thick enamel in temperate macaques is a response to intensified hard‐object feeding, increased abrasion, and/or a broader diet with a greater range of food material properties. The extreme ecological flexibility of macaques may prohibit identification of consistent trends between specific diets and enamel thickness conditions. Such complications of interpretation of ecological variability, dietary diversity, and enamel thickness may similarly apply for fossil Homo species. Am J Phys Anthropol 155:447–459, 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Paradox and promise: Research on the role of recent advances in paleodemography and paleoepidemiology to the study of “health” in Precolumbian societies
Authors: Wilson Jeremy J.
Published: August 2014

Bioarcheology has made tremendous strides since the subdiscipline's inception, subsequent syntheses, the standardization of data collection methods, and analytical advances ranging from molecular analyses through age‐estimation and biodistance. Concurrently, health and the adaptive success of past populations have remained primary concerns. However, questions are routinely raised about lesions and whether or not changing frequencies are synonymous with increases or decreases in stress, morbidity, and overall health. These include how and why healed lesions can simultaneously represent stress and survival, demanding that researchers understand how population dynamics influence skeletal sample formation. In this study, methods to analyze age‐ and sex‐specific mortality patterns prior to, and in conjunction with, the analysis of linear enamel hypoplasias are demonstrated. Paleodemographic and paleoepidemiological models are presented for late Pre‐Columbian skeletal samples from the Eastern Woodlands. Results of hazard modeling demonstrate that elevated mortality rates were commonplace during the latter half of the Mississippian period (AD 1200–1450) with reproductive‐age females experiencing high age‐specific risk of death attributed to the development of fortified villages and novel environments for increased pathogen loads. Corollary results are presented for the age‐specificity of linear enamel hypoplasias in the central Illinois River valley. The epidemiological models demonstrate that the relationship between adult mortality and early childhood stress varied through space, culture, and time. These findings highlight the need to effectively operationalize measurements related to health and stress in past populations and support the adoption of selective mortality and heterogeneity in frailty as key concepts in bioarcheological research. Am J Phys Anthropol 155:268–280, 2014. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.
Significant increases of pituitary tumors and resections from 1993 to 2011
Authors: Villwock Jennifer A. , Villwock Mark , Deshaies Eric , Goyal Parul
Published: August 2014

Background

Pituitary tumors comprise 10% to 15% of all diagnosed intracranial tumors; 90% are adenomas. Though benign, significant morbidity via compression of surrounding structures or aberrant hormone secretion can occur. This study investigated rates of pituitary tumor diagnoses and treatment trends from 1993 to 2011.

Methods

This study was a retrospective review of the 1993 to 2011 Nationwide Inpatient Sample for patients diagnosed with pituitary tumor as well as those patients who underwent pituitary tumor resection. Incidences of pituitary lesions, surgical approaches, and clinical and economic outcomes were evaluated.

Results

The rate of primary and secondary diagnoses of pituitary tumor per 100,000 persons significantly grew over the study period (correlation coefficient = 0.934 and 0.987, respectively, p < 0.001); a significant increase in the number of pituitary resections performed annually (correlation coefficient = 0.942, p < 0.001) were also seen. Admissions with a primary diagnosis of pituitary neoplasm experienced significant decreases in length of stay over time (correlation coefficient = −0.913, p < 0.001) and mortality (correlation coefficient = −0.697, p = 0.001). Interestingly, hospital charges more than triple over the same time span (correlation coefficient = 0.970, p < 0.001). Transfrontal resections decreased linearly with time.

Conclusion

Pituitary tumor diagnoses and resections have grown significantly over the past 20 years. Transsphenoidal surgical resection among this patient population has increased significantly, whereas transfrontal resections have decreased.